JULY 15/GOLD WITHSTANDS ANOTHER ATTACK BY OUR BANKERS ARE TURNS GREEN AT THE END OF THE COMEX SESSION BY $1.85 TO $1412.15//SILVER HAS A STELLAR DAY UP 11 CENTS TO $15.33//CHINA’S ECONOMIC NUMBERS REALLY BAD!!//TURKEY: ERDOGAN TO LOWER BENCHMARK INTEREST FROM 24% TO SINGLE DIGITS AND TRUMP WILL SANCTION THE COUNTRY FOR BRINGING IN S 400’S: THAT WILL SINK THE LIRA//EPSTEIN PLUS OTHER SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

GOLD: $1412.15  UP  $1.85 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

 

Silver:  $15.33  UP 11 CENTS  (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)//

 

 

 

Closing access prices:

Gold : $1413.60

 

silver:  $15.39

 

Gold held another attack by the bankers.  Silver paid no attention to the bankers as it was up all day.

 

YOUR DATA…

 

 

COMEX DATA

 

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING v 3/6

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: JULY 2019 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,409.900000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 07/12/2019 DELIVERY DATE: 07/16/2019
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
661 C JP MORGAN 3
690 C ABN AMRO 2
737 C ADVANTAGE 4 3
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 6 6
MONTH TO DATE: 839

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  JULY CONTRACT: 6 NOTICE(S) FOR 600 OZ (0.2674 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  839 NOTICES FOR 83,900 OZ  (2.6096 TONNES)

 

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR JULY

 

 

4 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 20,000  OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month: 3641 for   18,205,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE :  $ 10,287 UP 106 

 

 

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $ 10882 UP 706

 

 

 

 

end

 

 

 

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

IN SILVER THE COMEX OI FELL A FAIR  SIZED 742 CONTRACTS FROM 219,160 DOWN TO 218,418 DESPITE THE 10 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX.

TODAY WE ARRIVED FURTHER FROM AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:,

0 FOR JULY. 0 FOR AUGUST, 1259 FOR SEPT, AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  1259 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 1259 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 1259 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 9.08 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 10 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

20.850 MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING FOR JULY

 

WE AGAIN HAD CONSIDERABLE SHORT COVERING AT THE SILVER COMEX LAST NIGHT..AND ZERO SPREADING ACCUMULATION.

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF JULY:

10,321 CONTRACTS (FOR 10 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 10321 CONTRACTS) OR 51.61 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1032 CONTRACTS OR 5.16 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF JULY:  51.61 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 3,37% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          1209.21   MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2019 EFP TOTALS:                                                      217.455. MILLION OZ

FEB 2019 TOTALS:                                                                       147.4     MILLION OZ/

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                          207.835 MILLION OZ

APRIL 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                              182.87  MILLION OZ.

MAY 2019: TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                136.55 MILLION OZ

JUNE 2019 , TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                               265.38 MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 742, DESPITE THE 10 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /YESTERDAY... THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A  STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 1259 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

 

TODAY WE GAINED A GOOD SIZED: 517 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 

i.e 1259 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH DECREASE OF 742  OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 10 CENT GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $15.22 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY!! 

 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1..094 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 156% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT MARCH MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 4 NOTICE(S) FOR 20,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 CONTRACTS ON APRIL 9.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51.  

AND NOW WE RECORD FOR POSTERITY ANOTHER ALL TIME RECORD OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX OF 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUGUST 22/2018 AND AGAIN WHEN THIS RECORD WAS SET, THE PRICE OF SILVER WAS $14.78 AND LOWER IN PRICE THAN PREVIOUS RECORDS.

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 20.850 MILLION OZ
  2. HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018) AND NOW AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
  4. RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 

 

IN GOLD, THE OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A HUGE 7072 CONTRACTS, TO 602,567 ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG $5.20 PRICING GAIN WITH RESPECT TO COMEX GOLD PRICING YESTERDAY// /THE SPREADING ACCUMULATION IS NOW ON GOING FOR GOLD….

 

 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 6165 CONTRACTS:

APRIL 0 CONTRACTS,JUNE: 0 CONTRACTS, AUGUST 2019: 6165 CONTRACTS, DEC>  0 CONTRACTS AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 602,567.  ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A HUMONGOUS SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 13,237, CONTRACTS: 7072 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX  AND 6165 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 13,237 CONTRACTS OR 1,323,700 OZ OR 41.17 TONNES.  FRIDAY WE HAD A STRONG GAIN OF $5.20 IN GOLD TRADING.AND WITH THAT RISE IN PRICE, WE  HAD A HUGE GAIN IN GOLD TONNAGE OF 41.17  TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS WERE SUPPLYING INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER.

WITH RESPECT TO SPREADING:  WE ARE WITNESSING THE MORPHING OF OUR SPREADERS OUT OF SILVER AND INTO GOLD AS THE JULY MONTH PROCEEDS INTO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST. 

 

 

 

FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS WITH RESPECT TO THEIR SPREAD/TRADING.

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCHED TO SILVER AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NO INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY HEADING TOWARDS THE VERY ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST.

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST IS STARTING TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF JULY BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JULY), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.” 

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JULY : 77,989 CONTRACTS OR 7,798,900 oz OR 242.57 TONNES (10 TRADING DAY AND THUS AVERAGING: 7790 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 10 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 242.57 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3550 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS OF 242.57 TONNES/3550 x 100% TONNES =6.83% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     3169.41  TONNES

JANUARY 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;   531.20 TONNES

FEB 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:             344.36 TONNES

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:       497.16 TONNES

APRIL 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                 456.10 TONNES

MAY 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    449.10 TONNES

JUNE 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                   642.22 TONNES

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

 

Result: A HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 7072 WITH THE GOOD  PRICING GAIN THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK ON YESTERDAY($5.20)) WE ALSO HAD  A STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 6165 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 6165 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE HAD A HUMONGOUS SIZED GAIN OF 13,237 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

6165 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 7072 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 41.17 TONNES). ..AND THIS STRONG INCREASE OF  DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A SMALLISH GAIN IN PRICE OF $5.20 WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX. WE HAVE ALREADY WITNESSED STRONG SPREADING ACCUMULATION IN GOLD AS THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH PROCEEDS.

 

 

 

we had:  6 notice(s) filed upon for 600 oz of gold at the comex.

 

 

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

 

WITH GOLD UP $1.86 TODAY//

NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//

 

INVENTORY RESTS AT 800.54 TONNES

 

 

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

 

SLV/

WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY:

 

NO CHANGES WITH RESPECT TO SILVER INVENTORY  AT THE SILVER SLV:

 

 

 

 

 

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.518 MILLION OZ.

 

end

 

OUTLINE OF TOPICS TONIGHT

 

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 742 CONTRACTS from 219,160 DOWN TO 218,418 AND FURTHER FROM THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET LAST IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  1 1/3 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.  AS YOU CAN SEE, WE HAVE RECORD HIGH OPEN INTERESTS IN SILVER  ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUAL LOWER PRICE WHEN THAT RECORD WAS SET…..THE SPREADERS HAVE STOPPED THEIR ACCUMULATION OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS IN SILVER AND MORPHED INTO THE ACCUMULATION  OF  SPREADING CONTRACTS IN GOLD

 

 

 

 

EFP ISSUANCE: 

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 

FOR JULY: 0 CONTRACTS FOR AUGUST: 0, FOR SEPT. 1259  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1259 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE OI LOSS AT THE COMEX OF 742  CONTRACTS TO THE 1259 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A FAIR SIZED GAIN OF 517 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 2.585 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL  18.765 MILLION OZ FOR MAY  NOW 2.660 MILLION OZ FOR JUNE WITH JULY AT 20.850 MILLION OZ STANDING SO FAR.

 

 

RESULT: A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE 10 CENT GAIN IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED 1259 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)MONDAY MORNING/ SUNDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 11.64 POINTS OR 0.40%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 83.26 POINTS OR 0.29%   /The Nikkei closed UP 42.37 POINTS OR 0.20%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .63%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.8758 /Oil UP TO 60.50 dollars per barrel for WTI and 66.94 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 6.8758 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.8752 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

 

 

 

 

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 China/Chinese affairs

 

 

i)China/

The Chinese Military is warning the USA again not to give Taiwan arms

(Two commentaries:  courtesy zerohedge)

ii)Trump gloats at the Chinese

(courtesy zerohedge)

iii)The truth behind the real Huawei from expert Gordon Chang

(courtesy Gordon Chang/Gatestone)

iv)Beijing losing control of its economy.  GDP growth only 6.2%..exports falter by 1.2% and imports into the country fall by over 7%.  Yet Chin continues to supply debt which will cripple the banks.

( zerohedge)

v)Now Huawei is planning “extensive” USA layoffs(courtesy zerohedge)

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)Deutsche bank/Germany

Deutsche bank is lowering the severance payments for workers who were fired last Monday.

( zerohedge)

ii)Saturday:  FRANCE/PARIS
Over 700 new migrant protesters:  “black vests” occupy the Paris Pantheon. They want citizenship
(zerohedge)

 

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

i)TURKEY

Important: Erdogan set to lower interest rates into single digits (from 24%) which will send the Lira tumbling and create a banking crisis in Turkey.  Trump is also ready to roll out sanctions on Turkey for the S 400 purchases,

(zero hedge)

ib )TURKEY/CYPRUS/EU/ISRAEL

The following was largely expected:  The EU as agreed to sanction Turkey for drilling in Cypriot waters. I have been bringing this to your attention on a daily basis.  For newcomers, Israel discovered a huge natural gas find off the coast of Haifa, several years ago and they found it was heading onto Cyprus, Lebanon and Greek waters. They dutifully informed the leaders of these nations of the find. Theproblem is Turkey does not recognize the division of the country by way of an armistice in 1974 with the north government by Cypriot Turks and the southern half which includes the capital Nicosia is controlled by the Greek Cypriots.  Now that there is a big discovery Turkey wants it and they have interfered with drilling and intercepting ships.
(zerohedge)

 

ii)A good commentary from Margolis as Turkey is set to call Trump’s bluff
(courtesy Eric Margolis)

iii)IRAN/UK

Iran tells the UK that they will continue to export oil under any conditions.  They released the crew of that detained tanker
(courtesy zerohedge)

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

SWEDEN
A good look at why Sweden is at war and this is all due to the immigration of Muslims into the country
(COURTESY BERGMAN/GATESTONE)

ii)Worldwide semiconductor equipment sales collapse in 2019

(zerohedge)

7. OIL ISSUES

 

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

 

 

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

I)The following is a must read on the de dollarization of the USA.  It is lengthy but a must read.

(courtesy Michael Hudson/GATA)

II)Although slightly up in June, it is down sharply form last year.  The BIS is running out of gold to carrry out their nefarious activities

(Robert Labourne/.GATA)

iii)John Hathaway is telling us that gold’s breakout is foretelling  and that big changes in the financial order are upon us

(courtesy John Hathaway/GATA)

iv)The hardship for miners due to the low price of gold

(courtesy McGee.Globe and Mail/Toronto/GATA)

v)MMT or Modern Monetary Theory is in fact going on today and as a result market rigging is its chief consequence

(courtesy zerohedge)

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver)

 

 

 

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

II)MARKET TRADING/USA

 

 

ii)Market data/USA

Although the NY empire headline number printed better than expected, it still shows that industry continues to struggle..manufacturing employment expectations crash

(zerohedge)

iii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

a)FRIDAY  NIGHT

Barry missed New Orleans but still flooding is possible

(zerohedge)

b)expect food shortages as Barry rips through central USA

(courtesy Michael Snyder)

c)Bricks and mortar continue to burn and this has been accentuated by the 25% tariffs on many Chinese goods which will put any firms out of business.

(courtesy zerohedge)

SWAMP STORIES

i)Tom Luongo continues with his assessment as to what is going on behind the curtains with respect to Epstein

(courtesy Tom Luongo)

ii)Meet Epstein’s “madame”:  she is none other than Robert Maxwell’s daughter, Ghislaine Maxwell.

(zerohedge)

E)SWAMP STORIES/MAJOR STORIES//THE KING REPORT
end
LET US BEGIN:

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A HUGE SIZED 7072 CONTRACTS TO A LEVEL OF 602,567 ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG GAIN OF $5.20 IN GOLD PRICING WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S // COMEX TRADING)

WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED STRONG SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 6165 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

 FOR AUGUST; 6165 CONTRACTS: DEC: 0   AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  6165 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 13,237 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 6165 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A STRONG SIZED 7072 COMEX CONTRACTS.  THE BANKERS SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY AND INFINITE AMOUNT OF SHORT PAPER IN GOLD TO CONTAIN THE PRICE RISE. 

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ::  13,237 CONTRACTS OR 1,323,700 OZ OR 41.17 TONNES.

 

We are now in the NON  active contract month of JULY and here the open interest stands at 17 CONTRACTS as we LOST 5 contracts.  We had  5 notices filed yesterday so we gained 0 contracts or nil additional oz of gold will stand for delivery. The next big active month for deliverable gold is August and here the OI FELL by a strong 9133 contracts DOWN to 330,688. After August we have the non active month of September and here the OI rose by 400 contracts up to 574.  The next active delivery month is October and here the OI rose by 589 contracts up to 19,348.

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NOTICES FILED:

WE HAD 6 NOTICES FILED TODAY AT THE COMEX FOR  600 OZ. (0.0186 TONNES)

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total COMEX silver OI FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 742 CONTRACTS FROM 219,160 DOWN TO 218,888 (AND FURTHER FROM THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S  OI COMEX LOSS OCCURRED DESPITE A 10 CENT GAIN IN PRICING.//FRIDAY.

 

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY.  HERE WE HAVE 533OPEN INTEREST STAND FOR DELIVERY WITH A LOSS OF 17 CONTRACTS.  WE HAD 20 NOTICES FILED ON FRIDAY SO WE GAINED 3 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 15,000 OZ OF SILVER WILL ATTEMPT TO STAND AT THE COMEX…. AND THESE GUYS REFUSED TO MORPH INTO A LONDON BASED FORWARD AS WELL AS NEGATING A FIAT BONUS. LET US WAIT AND SEE IF SUCCESSFUL IN OBTAINING PHYSICAL METAL ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND. AFTER JULY WE HAVE THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF AUGUST AND HERE WE LOST 11 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 1132.  THE NEXT BIG ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH AFTER AUGUST IS SEPT AND HERE THE OI FELL BY 1352 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 150,161 CONTRACTS.

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 4 notice(s) filed for 20,000 OZ for the JULY, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 230,050  CONTRACTS 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  334,431  contracts

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  JULY/GOLD

JULY 15/2019

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
160.75 oz
Scotia
5 kilobars
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz  

nil

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

nil

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
6 notice(s)
 600 OZ
(0.0186 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
11 contracts
(1100 oz)
0.0342 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
839 notices
83900 OZ
2.6096 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 0 dealer entry:

We had 1 kilobar entry

 

 

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

 

we had 0 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan:  nil oz

 

ii) Into Everybody else: nil  oz

 

 

 

total gold deposits: nil  oz

 

very little gold arrives from outside/ NO amount  arrived   today

we had 1 gold withdrawal from the customer account:

i ) out of Scotia:  160.75 oz

5 kilobars

 

 

total gold withdrawals; 160.75   oz

 

 

i) we had 0 adjustment today

FOR THE JULY 2019 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 6 contract(s) of which 3 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JULY /2019. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (839) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  JULY. (17 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (6 x 100 oz per contract) equals 85,000 OZ OR 2.6438 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this NON active month of JULY

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JULY/2019 contract month:

No of notices served (839 x 100 oz)  + (17)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (6 x 100 oz )which equals 85,000 oz standing OR 2.6438 TONNES in this  active delivery month of JUNE.

We GAINED 0 contracts or an additional NIL oz will stand as these guys refused to morph into London based forwards as well as negating a fiat bonus.

 

 

 

SURPRISINGLY LITTLE TO NO  GOLD HAS BEEN ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS AND WE HAVE WITNESSED THIS FOR THE PAST YEAR!!  WE HAVE ONLY 10.0438 TONNES OF REGISTERED (  GOLD OFFERED FOR SALE) VS 2.6438  TONNES OF GOLD STANDING// THEY SEEM TO BE USING CONSIDERABLE GOLD VAPOUR TO SETTLE UPON UNSUSPECTING LONGS.

 

 

 

total registered or dealer gold:  322,825.827 oz or  10.0412 tonnes 
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   7,696,866.219 oz 239.40 tonnes

IN THE LAST 32 MONTHS 117 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX 
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY

INITIAL  standings/SILVER

IN TOTAL CONTRAST TO GOLD, HUGE ACTIVITY IN SILVER TODAY.
JULY 15 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 1047.400 oz
Delaware

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
NIL oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
nil oz
No of oz served today (contracts)
4
CONTRACT(S)
(20,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
529 contracts
(2,645,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 3641 contracts

18,205,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

**

 

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

 

total dealer deposits: NIL  oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had  0 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:  nil  oz

ii)into everybody else:  nil oz

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 153.4 million oz of  total silver inventory or 50.36% of all official comex silver. (153.4 million/304.6 million

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  nil  oz

 

we had 1 withdrawals out of the customer account:

 

i) out of Delaware:   1047.400  oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

total 1047.400  oz

 

we had 0 adjustments :

 

 

 

total dealer silver:  91.993 million

total dealer + customer silver:  306.647 million oz

The total number of notices filed today for the JULY 2019. contract month is represented by 4 contract(s) FOR 20,000 oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JULY, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 3641 x 5,000 oz = 18,205,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JULY. (533) and the number of notices served upon today (4 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the JULY/2019 contract month: 3641 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of JULY (533) number of notices served upon today (4)x 5000 oz equals 20,850,000 oz of silver standing for the JULY contract month.

WE GAINED 3 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 15,000 OZ WILL STAND AT THE COMEX AS THESE GUYS REFUSED TO MORPH INTO A LONDON BASED FORWARDS AND AS WELL THEY ALSO NEGATED A FIAT BONUS.  IT SEEMS THAT SOMEBODY WAS BADLY IN NEED OF PHYSICAL SILVER ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND JOINING GOLD!.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 20 notice(s) filed for 100,000 OZ for the JUNE, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME:  64,983 CONTRACTS (we had considerable spreading activity..accumulation

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 53,814 CONTRACTS..(we no doubt had considerable spreading activity as they are now starting to accumulate in silver)

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 53,814 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 26.90 million  OZ 38.4% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..makes sense!!

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

 

end

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

 

 

NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -0.94% (JULY 15/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -1.33% to NAV (JULY 15/2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -0.94%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 13.82 TRADING 13.28/DISCOUNT 3.93

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

JULY 15: WITH GOLD UP $1.85 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 800.54 TONNES

JULY 12/WITH GOLD UP $5.20 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 800.54 TONNES

JULY 11.WITH GOLD DOWN $5.25: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 800.54 TONNES

JULY 10//WITH GOLD UP $11.65 A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER GOLD DEPOSIT OF 6.46 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 800.54 TONNES

JULY 9/WITH GOLD UP 70 CENTS, A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.89 TONNES WHICH WAS USED IN THE FUTILE RAID ON GOLD AND SILVER THIS MORNING//INVENTORY RESTS AT 794.08 TONNES

JULY 8/ WITH GOLD DOWN 35 CENTS A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY FALLS TO 796.97 TONNES

JULY 5TH/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.50/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INV RESTS AT 798.44 TONNES

JULY 3// WITH GOLD UP $12.60 TODAY A SURPRISE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.76 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT  798.44

 

JULY 2. WITH GOLD UP $18.90 A HUGE “PAPER” DEPOSIT OF 6.16 TONNES INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 800.20 TONNES

JULY 1: WITH GOLD DOWN $24.70 A HUGE “PAPER GOLD” WITHDRAWAL OF 1.76 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 794.04 TONNES

JUNE 28/WITH GOLD UP $.90 TODAY: ANOTHER 2.05 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD REMOVED AND THIS GOLD WAS USED IN ATTACKING GOLD AT THE COMEX/INVENTORY RESTS AT 795.80 TONNES

JUNE 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.10: ANOTHER HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.76 PAPER TONNES FROM THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 797.61 TONNES

JUNE 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.00: WE HAD A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.37 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 799.61 TONNES

JUNE 25/WITH GOLD UP $1.30 (AND WAY UP BEFORE THE BANKERS WHACKED) WE WITNESSED ANOTHER 1.95 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD ADDED TO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 801.98 TONNES

JUNE 24/WITH GOLD UP $18.00 A MONSTROUS PAPER DEPOSIT OF 34.93 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 799.03 TONNES

JUNE 21/WITH GOLD UP $  2.90, NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: INVENTORY RESTS AT: 764.10 TONNES

June 20/WITH GOLD UP $47.95, NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.10 TONNES

JUNE 19 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.65: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.10 TONES

JUNE 18/JUNE 18/WITH GOLD UP $7.60: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.10 TONNES

 

JUNE 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.65 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.10 TONNES

JUNE 14/ WITH GOLD UP $1.05 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.40 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.10 TONNES

june 13/WITH GOLD UP $6.60 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.52 TONNES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 759.70 TONNES

JUNE 12/WITH GOLD UP $7.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 756.18 TONNES

JUNE 11/WITH GOLD UP $1.65 CENTS TODAY: A TINY CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .24 TONNES AND THIS IS TO PAY FOR FEES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 756.18 TONNES

JUNE 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $16.40 TODAY: A BIG  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 756.42 TONNES

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

JULY 15/2019/ Inventory rests tonight at 800.54 tonnes

*IN LAST 623 TRADING DAYS: 134.22 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 523 TRADING DAYS: A NET 31.46 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

 

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

JULY: 15  WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.518 MILLION OZ

JULY 12/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.518 MILLION OZ//

JULY 11/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY

JULY 10/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.518 MILLION OZ//

JULY 9/WITH SILVER UP A SMALL 7 CENTS A GIGANTIC INVENTORY GAIN OF 4.026 MILLION OZ/ INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.518 MILLION OZ AND NOW IT SHOULD BE QUITE CLEAR THAT THE SLV ( AND GLD ARE FRAUDS)

JULY 8/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 328,492 MILLION OZ

JULY 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 32 CENTS WE STRANGELY HAD A HUGE INVENTORY GAIN OF 2,234 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 328.492 MILLION OZ

JULY 3 WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS A HUGE INCREASE IN INVENTORY..INVENTORY RESTS AT 326.151 MILLION OZ

JULY 2/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 323.330 MILLION OZ//

JULY 1/ WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS: A SURPRISING DEPOSIT OF 936,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 323.330 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 28/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 322.394 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.575 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 322.394 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 26/WITH SILVER UP 17 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.819 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.819 MILLION OZ.

JUNE 24/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.819 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 22 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.819 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 20/WITH SILVER UP 53 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.819 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.070 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 18 WITH SILVER UP 18 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.070 MILLION OZ

JUNE 17/WITH SILVER UP XXX CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.775 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 9  CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.775 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 13/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.775 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 12/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.413 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.775 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 11/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.652 MILLION OZ//

 

 

Inventory 332.518 MILLION OZ

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.24/ and libor 6 month duration 2.23

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: – .01

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.19%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 2.23

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.04

end

 

 

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

 

end
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

Why Gold Prices Have Climbed to Their Highest Since 2013

Dovish statements from global central banks recently aren’t the only reason for gold’s rise past $1,400 an ounce this week to levels it hasn’t seen in nearly six years.

“Gold is a global market and U.S. monetary policy, while important, is not the only driver of performance,” Juan Carlos Artigas, director of investment research at the World Gold Council, told MarketWatch on Friday.

On the macroeconomic level, there’s “the combination of increase geopolitical tensions and a more accommodative monetary policy stance signaled by central banks, including the [European Central Bank] and the [U.S. Federal Reserve], which have pushed global interest rates lower,” he said.

U.S.-China tensions over trade policy persist as traders await an expected meeting and progress toward a resolution on the trade dispute, between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping at the Group of 20 leaders summit was June 28-29.

Full article via Marketwatch here

Buy, Transfer & Store Gold and Silver in Zurich, Switzerland – Six Months Free Storage & Complimentary Silver Eagle – Info Here

News and Commentary

Gold Trades Steady Ahead of China GDP Data

We Are Neutral Equities, But Increased Gold, Cash Allocations, Says Cazenove’s Mui

Goldbugs for Trump

Tocqueville Gold Strategy Second Quarter 2019 Investor Letter

GoldSeek Radio: Dr. Marc Faber, John Scurci and Robert Ian

Modern Monetary Theory is Fact and Practice, and Market Rigging is Its Consequence

LBMA Gold Prices (AM/ PM Fix – USD, GBP & EUR)

12-Jul-19 1405.60 1407.60, 1122.23 1122.14 & 1248.74 1251.50
11-Jul-19 1423.10 1413.75, 1135.06 1126.62 & 1262.72 1255.83
10-Jul-19 1395.45 1408.30, 1117.34 1126.78 & 1243.35 1252.68
09-Jul-19 1387.90 1391.55, 1113.51 1115.61 & 1239.39 1241.54
08-Jul-19 1404.90 1400.10, 1121.11 1119.38 & 1251.20 1248.19
05-Jul-19 1414.40 1388.65, 1126.43 1110.92 & 1255.99 1237.70
04-Jul-19 1415.25 1414.90, 1125.41 1125.55 & 1254.19 1254.59
03-Jul-19 1425.10 1413.50, 1133.52 1123.31 & 1262.78 1251.65

GOLDNOMICS PODCAST (Episode 12)

Watch Podcast Here or Listen on Apple PodcastsSoundCloud or Blubrry

Receive Our Free Daily or Weekly Updates by Signing Up Here

Mark O’Byrne
Executive Director

ii) Physical stories courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

The following is a must read on the de dollarization of the USA.  It is lengthy but a must read.

(courtesy Michael Hudson/GATA)

Michael Hudson: Dedollarizing may collapse the U.S. financial empire

 Section: 

12:15a ET Saturday, July 13, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Nobody dissects the mechanisms of U.S. dollar imperialism as well as the economist and historian Michael Hudson, a professor of economics at the University of Missouri at Kansas City.

In an interview with Bonnie Faulkner posted Friday at the Naked Capitalism internet site, Hudson describes how the dollar has managed to control the world financial system with the United States being a massive creditor nation as well as being a massive debtor nation. But, Hudson adds, President Trump’s trade wars and economic sanctions are driving the world away from the dollar and away from using U.S. Treasuries for their savings and back to gold as the means of settling trade.

… 

The interview is headlined “Michael Hudson: De-Dollarizing the American Financial Empire” and it’s posted at Naken Capitalism here:

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2019/07/michael-hudson-de-dollarizing-th…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

Although slightly up in June, it is down sharply form last year.  The BIS is running out of gold to carrry out their nefarious activities

Robert Labourne/.GATA)

BIS’ gold swaps rise slightly in June but are down sharply since last year

 Section: 

By Robert Lambourne
Saturday, July 13, 2019

The Bank for International Settlements’ has just published its statement of account for June and it indicate that the bank is still actively trading gold swaps, which the bank uses to gain access to gold held by commercial banks. But recent activity appears to be much reduced from the second half of 2018.

There is not enough information in the monthly reports to calculate the exact amount of swaps, but based on the information in the BIS’ statement for June, the bank’s gold swaps stand at about 126 tonnes at the end of the month, up 48 tonnes from the approximately 78 tonnes as of May 31.

Swaps stood at 88 tonnes as of April 30, 175 tonnes as of March 31, 303 tonnes as of February 28, 247 tonnes as of January 31, 275 tonnes as of December 2018, 308 tonnes as of November 2018, 372 tonnes as of October 2018, 238 tonnes as of September 2018, and 370 tonnes as of August 2018.

… 

In addition the BIS’ annual report for the financial year to March 31 was also published recently. Following the bank’s usual approach, the annual report discloses little about the reasons for the bank’s activity in gold and in particular for gold swaps.

During its financial year just concluded the BIS did not sell any of its own gold, the first year for several years without any sales.

Use of BIS gold sight accounts for central banks increased in the financial year, which is also something of a change, since their use has generally declined in the last decade.

More background on the bank’s medium-term history of using gold swaps is posted here:

http://www.gata.org/node/18825

On February 3 this year GATA published comments from a former gold industry executive describing the activities of the BIS in gold swaps in previous decades.

The former executive wrote: “Effectively this process created a supply of ‘paper gold’ — sometimes but not always marked to market — that had a depressing effect on the gold price”:

http://www.gata.org/node/18828

The BIS refuses to explain its activity in the gold market — its objectives and the underlying parties in interest —

http://www.gata.org/node/17793

— and mainstream financial news organizations refuse to ask the bank about it.

—–

Robert Lambourne is a retired business executive in the United Kingdom who consults with GATA about the involvement of the Bank for International Settlements in the gold market.

* * *

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END

John Hathaway is telling us that gold’s breakout is foretelling  and that big changes in the financial order are upon us

 

(courtesy John Hathaway/GATA)

Tocqueville’s John Hathaway: Gold’s breakout foretells big change in financial order

 Section: 

11:38a ET Saturday, July 13, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Tocqueville gold fund manager John Hathaway latest investor letter, published this week, questions five points of what seems to be the convention wisdom about the world financial system and the gold mining industry. He asserts that gold’s recent breakout is “a big deal” and “could be an early warning that the global financial order may be headed for significant change.”

… 

Hathaway concludes: “During gold’s six years in the penalty box, the underlying forces that have made the metal a superior strategic investment over centuries have not been idle. The extrapolation of current conditions into unrealistic expectations is a dependable flaw of human nature. The capacity of physical gold and precious metals mining shares to absorb inflows has greatly diminished because of the prolonged attrition of investment interest. Once capital market flows revive, there is real potential in our opinion for parabolic upside in the metal and the shares.”

Hathaway’s letter is posted at Tocqueville’s internet site here:

http://tocqueville.com/tocqueville-gold-strategy-second-quarter-2019-inv…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

The hardship for miners due to the low price of gold

(courtesy McGee.Globe and Mail/Toronto/GATA)

Golden blunders: How a string of technical mishaps has hampered Canada’s junior gold miners

 Section: 

By Niall McGee
The Globe & Mail, Toronto
Saturday, July 13, 2019

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-technical-disasters-the…

Junior gold-mining executive Scott Caldwell was in a jovial mood as he sat down for a national television interview in February, 2016.

Even though the price of gold bullion had tumbled by more than a third from its 2011 peak, and many of his competitors were struggling, his company was defying the odds.

Guyana Goldfields Inc. had managed to raise US$700-million from investors and put a high-grade gold mine into production in early 2016.

… 

Mr. Caldwell, an avuncular mining engineer with a soothing tone, was happy to promote the company’s Aurora mine, located in a remote Guyanese rainforest, as a cash machine.

Indeed, at the prevailing gold price of US$1,200 an ounce, Guyana looked like a surefire winner.

“A little less than US$800 an ounce [cost], US$400 an ounce margin,” he said during a segment on Business News Network (BNN). “Pretty easy to figure out how we’re going to do.”

The company’s share price soared as it ramped up production, and its market capitalization crested above $1.5-billion.

But last October, seemingly out of nowhere, the wheels came off. Guyana shed half its stock-market value in one trading session after the company raised doubts about the geology at Aurora. A technical report, upon which the mine was built, had vastly overestimated the amount and grade of gold at Aurora. This past March, Guyana cut its reserves by more than 40 per cent, after releasing an updated study on the mine. Guyana’s chairman, René Marion, later admitted in an interview that some 1.5 million ounces of gold assumed by Guyana to be in the ground was “never there.”

Ten months on, Guyana’s share price is down 87 per cent from its peak. Its founder and almost its entire legacy management and board of directors have left. Mr. Caldwell will step down once a replacement is found. Nobody is sure whether the company can weather the crisis.

The meltdown at Guyana’s isn’t a one-off. Over the past few years, several other mining companies have shocked the market with nasty technical surprises.

Vancouver-based Pretium Resources Inc. has seen its share price whipsawed on multiple occasions by geological setbacks at its erratic Brucejack deposit in British Columbia; Toronto-based New Gold Inc. saw the economics of its Rainy River mine in northwest Ontario go up in smoke last year after it fell short on grade; and shareholders in Rubicon Minerals Inc. were almost completely wiped out after its deposit in Ontario’s Red Lake camp turned out to be not mineable at all.

Virtually all of the incidents are occurring at technically demanding ore bodies that require exhaustive study.

While seniors, such as Goldcorp Inc. (now owned by Newmont Mining Corp.), haven’t been immune from technical blunders, this is mostly a small company problem.

Many juniors have little or no experience in building mines and lack the technical talent that might head off calamities in advance.

Small mining companies rely heavily on external consulting firms that prepare resource models. The bigger companies have reams of inhouse talent — geologists, metallurgists and engineers — who vet the work of consultants. But juniors often don’t have the same level of expertise to be able to push back if something seems off.

“[Smaller gold companies] don’t have the human expertise to be able to steer away from those disasters. They don’t have the technical bench strength. They don’t have people that can look at it, and say ‘hey this is wrong.’ ” said Andrew Kaip, mining analyst with BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc. “They’re reliant on external advice and that can be flawed. It can have wildly bad outcomes.”

The industry’s recent flops also raise the issue of accountability when things go wrong. It’s very easy to blame the consultant when the mine plan falls apart, but the management and boards of troubled companies, often responsible for making questionable decisions, are no angels either.

“In order for these things to collapse, half a dozen constituents of people have to not do their jobs,” said John Tumazos, chief executive of New Jersey-based Very Independent Research. “And the reason they don’t do their jobs is that no one wants to kill the golden goose, the gravy train. Even when the project sucks.”

Compared with almost any other mineral, gold is a geological nightmare — harder to find, harder to model and harder to mine. There is no MRI machine for finding gold. Prospectors still have to identify a promising property, drill test holes, send samples to a lab for analysis and cross their fingers.

Even if you find gold, invariably there will be hardly any of it in the ore. The term “high grade” is actually misleading. Eight grams of gold in a tonne of rock is considered high grade. That’s eight parts per million. Low grade is one part per million — a grain of salt in a giant bag of Doritos.

The gold industry is perhaps unrivaled in its wastefulness. A producer has to dig up about 20 tonnes of ore for enough gold to make a wedding ring.

Sometimes gold play nice, occurring as a fine powdery-like substance in rock, with consistent grades throughout the entire ore body — specks of salt uniformly spread across the Doritos. If drill samples confirm that consistency over and over, such deposits can be fairly straightforward to model.

But gold deposits can also be “nuggety” — low grade in most spots, but with the occasional high-grade cluster. And often there is no discernible pattern — like finding a random pretzel in the Doritos.

These ore bodies are among the toughest to model, because geologists can’t be entirely sure whether the high-grade is a statistical fluke, or a pattern across the entire deposit.

Since it’s financially feasible to drill only a tiny proportion of any potential gold deposit, experts have to take sample data and try to figure out what the rest holds.

Correctly modelling a mine, based on a sample that is perhaps only 0.13 per cent of the total mineralized rock, requires immense skill. Such work is typically done by a select group of independent mining consultants. Combining geological field work, and a branch of mathematics called geostatistics, the job is a blend of art, science and luck.

In 2012, SRK Consulting (Canada) Inc. produced a model for Guyana’s Aurora property. Like all gold deposits, Aurora had its charms and its challenges. Early drilling revealed it was a little nuggety.

One way geologists deal with the presence of high-grade gold in what appears to be a mostly lower-grade deposit is to assume it’s an anomaly. In constructing a geological model, consultants will routinely disregard high-grade drill samples above a certain level.

This practice, known as “capping,” is supposed to prevent consultants from overestimating the overall average grade. But here’s the rub. If a deposit is capped too low, that can kill the financial case for building the mine.

In 2012, SRK capped a section of Aurora, called Rory’s Knoll, at 80 grams of gold per tonne. That meant Guyana could expect to find a certain amount of high-grade ore when it mined the area. But last year, as it mined Rory’s Knoll, the high grade simply wasn’t there.

“We weren’t seeing the grade that we thought we would, based on the original 2012 model,” Guyana’s CEO, Mr. Caldwell, told The Globe and Mail earlier this year.

Guyana’s chairman, Mr. Marion, pointed the finger squarely at SRK. The consultant was “very aggressive” in capping the deposit, he said.

Late last year, Guyana asked another consultant, Roscoe Postle Associates (RPA Inc.), to redo the technical report on Aurora from scratch. In its report issued in March, RPA capped Rory’s Knoll at just 35 grams per tonne. Guyana’s current management team maintains that RPA’s capping is much more appropriate.

But SRK isn’t taking any of this on the chin. The consultancy points the finger back at Guyana. After an internal review earlier this year, SRK concluded that its 2012 report on Aurora was technically sound based on data available at the time.

Adam Nott, general counsel with SRK, disputes any notion that the consultancy was aggressive in its modelling. The report was produced when Aurora was at an early stage, and was never meant to be relied upon for the construction of the mine, which came some four years later.

SRK would have had discussions with Guyana about the need to update the model and get lots more data before building Aurora. That would have required more drilling and the outlay of significant amounts of additional capital from Guyana. “For whatever reasons, internal to Guyana Gold, that update wasn’t done until 2018, when new management came in,” Mr. Nott said.

If SRK had access to the same data RPA did in 2018, including three years of actual mining, the consultancy “probably would have come to different results,” he added.

Of course, any allegation that a consultant was too aggressive in its interpretation of the geology of a deposit hits a nerve in the Canadian mining industry.

Consultants are supposed to provide an unbiased and impartial view of an orebody. But the reality is more nuanced.

“Some [consultants] look at deposits and imagine all kinds of good things happening, and others, and we’re among them, try to be more realistic,” said Graham Farquharson, veteran mining consultant with Strathcona Mineral Services Ltd. in Toronto.

(In the late 1990s, when doubts arose about Bre-X Minerals Ltd.’s 70 million ounce gold find, the industry turned to Strathcona to investigate. Mr. Farquharson himself later made what he calls the “six-billion-dollar phone call,” to Bre-x’s board, definitively declaring Busang a hoax.)

There is also an inherent conflict of interest. Because consultants are paid by the mining companies, they face financial pressure to be positive. Ha­­ving a negative stand on a project, even if it’s spot on, can result in the consultant getting canned.

“It’s a very hard battle telling your client that we think they need to go back to the drawing board,” SRK’s Mr. Nott says. “Especially when the clients know there are other consultants who are willing to use those [data points] and say that’s within a reasonable range.”

Mr. Nott added that SRK has lost work to rival consultants who were willing to provide a more bullish outlook on a deposit.

The technical reports themselves are also heavily influenced by clients. Consultants and management go back and forth on many issues, such as appropriate capping levels, the distance between drill holes and what long-term gold prices to assume in projecting returns.

Sometimes technical reports aren’t as thorough as they could be, either, and that is often because of money. A client may not want to spend more on drilling and will choose to live with the added risk that entails. “SRK, in a lot of ways, is driven by what the client is willing to pay for, and what the client feels its risk-reward balance is,” Mr. Nott said.

Most of the time, these kinds of behind-closed-doors discussions between consultants and mining companies are kept secret. But once in a while they become public. High up in the mountains of northwest British Columbia, Pretium Resource’s Brucejack property was an enigma from the get-go. Early work in 2012 pointed to an extremely high-grade gold deposit. Some drill holes came back with as much as 41,000 grams of gold per tonne.

Despite extensive drilling, Brucejack was incredibly difficult to pin down. “You could come back with one sample that would have spectacular results and then 10 samples all around it that had nothing,” said Mr. Farquharson, whose consultancy did a bulk sample on the deposit.

In 2013, Pretium shares shed half their value within two weeks after it revealed that Strathcona’s analysis didn’t square with a far more optimistic study by an Australian firm, Snowden Mining Industry Consultants. Strathcona insisted that Pretium disclose the discrepancy to its investors, then resigned in the aftermath.

Pretium, in turn, stuck with Snowden and trashed Strathcona’s work as subpar.

Snowden felt Brucejack had similarities with deposits in the South Pacific with similarly eccentric geology. The consultant used a mathematical model called multiple indicator kriging (MIK) to predict the grade and location of the high-grade gold.

MIK is well suited to “mosaic” deposits such as Brucejack, where extremely high-grade gold occurs next to low grade, or even no grade, said international geologist Ashley Brown, who’s now based in Kazakhstan. But MIK is extremely challenging. “The implementation of MIK is very difficult,” he said. “It’s easy to screw up.”

What struck Mr. Brown as odd about Brucejack is that Snowden decided against capping the grade. By forgoing capping, SRK allowed the pockets of high-grade gold samples to strongly influence the average grade for the entire deposit. Brucejack’s reserve grade was pegged at 14.4 grams per tonne, which made it among the highest-grade gold mines in North America.

Snowden’s approach didn’t sit well with Haywood Securities Inc. analyst Kerry Smith, either. A former mining engineer, he’s seen his fair share of geological goofs in his almost 40 years in the business. About four years ago, Mr. Smith attended an information session with Snowden about Brucejack.

“Snowden spent the whole day trying to rationalize why they should model it the way they did, which was basically to model those high-grade numbers and use them to influence the ore around it,” Mr. Smith said. “I came away thinking ‘I wouldn’t do that. That makes no sense,’ because these numbers are not going to have any continuity.”

Mr. Smith was right to be wary. In January of last year, Pretium said Brucejack’s grade was only corresponding 75 per cent to Snowden’s model. The stock lost more than a quarter of its value.

“The high-grade mineralization was in narrower corridors than originally thought,” Pretium CEO Joseph Ovsenek said in an interview.

Earlier this year, after undertaking a review of Brucejack, Pretium cut the mine’s grade to 12.6 grams per tonne, increased its cost projections by 12 per cent and reduced its expected mine life by four years.

Snowden declined an interview request from The Globe. Ivor Jones, who had responsibility for the technical report on Brucejack, also declined to comment beyond saying, “It is easy to criticize other people’s work. Especially something as challenging as Brucejack.”

Pretium’s CEO meantime refuses to play the blame game. Mr. Ovsenek instead points to the baffling geology, calling Brucejack a “beast.”

“I can tell you from talking to a lot of people in the industry and others, there is no orebody like ours out there,” he said. “I challenge anyone to say that they could have done better.”

While Pretium has been wounded, even with a materially lower grade, Brucejack is still plenty profitable. Over the past 18 months, amid a recovery in bullion prices, the company’s share price has regained most of its losses since early 2018.

The trouble for many other juniors is that they don’t have deposits with grades that come anywhere close to Pretium’s Brucejack, or the financial cushion to recover from geological setbacks.

It is possible for a gold producer to make lots of money from a low-grade mine if costs are kept in check and the geology is sound. But it’s crucial that there be a margin for error built in, in case things go wrong. Otherwise, a small slip can spell big trouble.

New Gold Inc.’s Rainy River mine is exhibit A.

Midway through 2018, less than a year into production, New Gold said it was seeing a roughly 11-per-cent shortfall in the grade at Rainy River. With that, the mine’s profit margin vanished.

New Gold also made a basic engineering error in designing the tailings dam at Rainy River and had to build a drastically strengthened structure. The episode blew its capital budget to smithereens.

New Gold now loses hundreds of dollars on every ounce of gold it produces at Rainy River, its debt load is US$780-million and it isn’t expected to produce any free cash flow until 2021.

“Some of these things should just never ever get built. That mine was one of them,” said Rob Cohen, manager of the Dynamic Precious Metals Fund.

If Rainy River’s economics were so dicey, why did it get built? A close reading of the mine’s technical report would have shown thin the margins were. The projected average grade was just 1.12 grams per tonne and the return on mine was forecast at 11 per cent.

But technical reports for the most part are impenetrable, and few investors are skilled enough to understand them. Reports can be penned by as many as a dozen authors, run 700 pages or more and are laced with terms such as “kriging” and “variogram.”

Here’s a passage from New Gold’s 713-page report in 2014, describing Rainy River: “The volcanic rocks have been intruded by a wide variety of plutonic rocks including synvolcanic tonalite-diorite-granodiorite batholiths, younger granodiorite batholiths, sanukitoid monzodiorite intrusions and monzogranite batholiths and plutons.”

The seeds of some mining disasters are buried in technical reports, there for the world to find them before a cent is spent on a mine. But these reports are written by geeks for geeks. The common investor doesn’t stand a chance.

New Gold declined an interview request for this story.

In addition to technical challenges, however, an old chestnut plays a role in some, if not all, of these cautionary tales. The gold industry is renowned for its culture of exaggeration, hype and promotion, and even the smartest among us can fall victim.

Gold mines are almost always built off a feasibility study (FS), which entails extensive drilling to confirm the existence of gold.

But Rubicon Minerals built its Phoenix underground mine in northern Ontario off a preliminary economic assessment — a much more rudimentary early stage study.

Despite the obviously materially higher risk profile, Rubicon raised more than half a billion dollars from investors. It even attracted one of Canada’s most sophisticated institutional money managers: The Canada Pension Plan Investment Board put $50-million into the miner.

In late 2015, mere months after starting production at Phoenix, Rubicon suddenly halted production, citing complications with the geology. Over time, it emerged that Rubicon hadn’t done nearly enough drilling to confirm the gold was actually in the ground. The company, which at one point was worth $1.2-billion, never recovered. Shareholders lost almost everything. In this case, they should have known better.

While most of these catastrophes involve small mining companies, there are a few outliers in the junior and intermediate sector that have demonstrated both geological prowess and sound judgment.

In 2011, junior gold company, Osisko Mining Inc. put what is now Canada’s biggest gold mine into production. While the Canadian Malartic mine in Quebec is low grade, it is very profitable.

The technical team behind Osisko did their homework, including drilling the deposit like crazy. Two of the company’s top three executives were geologists and the other was a mining engineer. (Osisko was acquired by Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. and Yamana Gold Inc. for $3.9-billion in 2014).

Vancouver-based B2Gold Corp. is another example. Founded in 2007, the company acquired, developed and built Fekola in Mali, now one of the world’s most profitable gold mines. Instead of outsourcing mine construction to external engineering firms, as is industry practice, B2 builds its own mines with a tight-knit staff CEO Clive Johnson has worked with for decades.

But of all of Canada’s gold miners, Toronto-based senior Agnico Eagle Mines probably has the strongest reputation for technical excellence over the long term. Over more than 60 years, the company has never experienced a serious geology mistake, despite dealing with many technically demanding orebodies.

To access ore at its LaRonde mine in Quebec, the company mines three kilometres underground. Agnico built two mines in Nunavut, despite having no access to power, or roads, and operating in a brutally harsh climate. In Finland, the company deals with complex metallurgy.

Agnico is known for its conservative approach. It’s stacked with technical staff, and renowned for its airtight chain of command that starts at the top, with CEO Sean Boyd, and extends through the entire organization.

“Sean Boyd knows how to delegate responsibility. He understands the importance of his technical guys, understands about getting the mine engineers talking to the metallurgist, talking to the electricians. Everyone,” Dynamic’s Mr. Cohen said.

“That’s what brings success to these projects. Having a sharp pencil and being no nonsense.”

A decade ago, Pretium, Guyana Goldfields and New Gold might well have been bought by a bigger miner, well before major problems occurred. Within a technically stronger and better capitalized senior, basic geology mistakes could have been averted or minimized.

But in 2012, the mergers and acquisitions (M&A) market in mining went into a deep freeze. A vicious gold bear market in the first half of this decade, and terribly timed acquisitions during the last bull market, forced the majors onto the sidelines.

Smaller companies have been forced to hang around as standalones longer than before. That has forced many of them into the uncomfortable terrain of building mines by themselves — often for the first time.

The risk of something going wrong was always going to be higher. While M&A has taken off again in a limited way among the seniors, for the most part it’s crickets further down the ladder. If that dynamic doesn’t change, more mines will invariably be built by the tenderfoot, and investors will be left to wonder where the next geological shock lies.

* * *

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end

MMT or Modern Monetary Theory is in fact going on today and as a result market rigging is its chief consequence

(courtesy zerohedge)

Modern Monetary Theory is fact and practice, and market rigging is its consequence

 Section: 

2:04p ET Sunday, July 14, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Modern Monetary Theory, which has been getting much attention lately, is so controversial mainly because it is misunderstood.

It is misunderstood first because it is not a theory at all but a truism.

That is, MMT holds essentially that a government issuing a currency without a fixed link to a commodity like gold or silver is constrained in its currency issuance only by inflation and devaluation.

… 

This is a very old observation in economics, going back centuries, even to the classical economist Adam Smith, and perhaps first formally acknowledged by the U.S. government with a speech given in 1945 by the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Beardsley Ruml. The speech was published in 1946:

http://home.hiwaay.net/~becraft/RUMLTAXES.html

Ruml said:

“The necessity for a government to tax in order to maintain both its independence and its solvency is true for state and local governments, but it is not true for a national government. Two changes of the greatest consequence have occurred in the last 25 years which have substantially altered the position of the national state with respect to the financing of its current requirements.

“The first of these changes is the gaining of vast new experience in the management of central banks.

“The second change is the elimination, for domestic purposes, of the convertibility of the currency into gold.

“Final freedom from the domestic money market exists for every sovereign national state where there exists an institution which functions in the manner of a modern central bank and whose currency is not convertible into gold or into some other commodity.”

Ruml noted that in a fiat currency system such as the United States had adopted by 1945, government did not need to tax to raise revenue but could create as much money as it wanted and deploy it as it thought best, using taxes instead to give value to its currency and implement social and economic policy.

MMT does not claim that the government should create and deploy infinite money. It claims that money can be created and deployed as much as is necessary to improve general living conditions and eliminate unemployment until the currency begins to lose value.

The second big misunderstanding about MMT is that it is not a mere policy proposal but is actually the policy that has been followed by the U.S. government for decades without the candor of Ruml’s 1945 acknowledgment.

The problem with MMT is that, in its unacknowledged practice, it already has produced what its misunderstanding critics fear it for: the creation and deployment of infinite money and credit by central banks as well as vast inflation.

In accordance with MMT, this creation of infinite money and credit has necessitated central banking’s “financial repression” — its suppression of interest rates and commodity prices through both open and surreptitious intervention in bond and futures markets and the issuance of financial derivatives.

That is, since money creation in the current financial system is restrained only by inflation, this restraint can be removed or lessened with certain price controls, which, to be effective, must be disguised, lest people discern that there are no markets anymore, just interventions.

The British economist Peter Warburton perceived this in his 2001 essay, “The Debasement of World Currency — It Is Inflation, But Not As We Know It”:

http://www.gata.org/node/8303

Warburton wrote: “What we see at present is a battle between the central banks and the collapse of the financial system fought on two fronts. On one front, the central banks preside over the creation of additional liquidity for the financial system to hold back the tide of debt defaults that would otherwise occur. On the other, they incite investment banks and other willing parties to bet against a rise in the prices of gold, oil, base metals, soft commodities, or anything else that might be deemed an indicator of inherent value.

“Their objective is to deprive the independent observer of any reliable benchmark against which to measure the eroding value not only of the U.S. dollar but of all fiat currencies. Equally, they seek to deny the investor the opportunity to hedge against the fragility of the financial system by switching into a freely traded market for non-financial assets. [EMPHASIS ADDED.]

“Central banks have found the battle on the second front much easier to fight than the first. Last November I estimated the size of the gross stock of global debt instruments at $90 trillion for mid-2000. How much capital would it take to control the combined gold, oil, and commodity markets? Probably no more than $200 billion, using derivatives.

“Moreover, it is not necessary for the central banks to fight the battle themselves, although central bank gold sales and gold leasing have certainly contributed to the cause. Most of the world’s large investment banks have overtraded their capital so flagrantly that if the central banks were to lose the fight on the first front, then the stock of the investment banks would be worthless. Because their fate is intertwined with that of the central banks, investment banks are willing participants in the battle against rising gold, oil, and commodity prices.”

This “financial repression” and commodity price suppression have channeled into financial and real estate assets — the assets of property owners — the vast inflation resulting from the policy of infinite money creation, thereby diverting inflation from assets whose prices are measured by government’s consumer price indexes. Meanwhile those indexes are constantly distorted and falsified to avoid giving alarm.

As a result the ownership class is enriched and the working class impoverished.

Of course this is exactly the opposite of what MMT’s advocates intend.

But while the monetary science conceived by MMT people well might develop a formula for operating a perfect monetary system with full employment and prosperity for all, the monetary system always will confer nearly absolute power on its operators, and as long as the operators are human, such power will always corrupt many of them — even MMT’s advocates themselves.

That’s why market rigging is the inevitable consequence of MMT as it is now practiced and why the world is losing its free and competitive markets to monopoly and oligopoly and becoming less democratic and more totalitarian.

So what is the solution?

Maybe some libertarianism would help: Let governments use whatever they want as money, but let individuals do the same and don’t mess with them. Gold, cryptocurrencies, seashells, oxen, whatever — leave them alone.

Most of all, require government to be completely transparent in whatever it does in the markets. If government wants to rig markets, require that it be done in the open and reported contemporaneously.

After all, the world can hardly know where to go when it isn’t permitted to know where it is.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

iii) Other physical stories:

Data from Nicholas to me:

Nicholas Biezanek

Sun, Jul 14, 6:21 AM (1 day ago)

to Williamme
Hi Bill/Harvey,
Gold related statistics are frequently quoted in tonnes whilst those relating to silver are in troy ounces.An individual Comex gold  contract is 100 troy ounces whilst a silver contract is 5,000 troy ounces. I found it interesting to reduce some headline statistics to tonnes in respect of both metals.
Recent annual global mine supply (ex Russia and China) may vary considerably depending on what data is reviewed and the year of such data.. My computations produce the following.
Silver mine production exceeds gold by about nine times.
‘Criminal’  EFPs silver transfers exceed gold twelve times
SLV silver inventory exceeds GLD gold inventory thirteen times
Net residual LBMA vault silver exceeds gold fourteen times
The COMEX has to work a bit harder to suppress silver paper prices and the
most recent volumes indicate that the silver open interest is eighteen times larger than that for gold.
The gold/silver ratio on Friday evening was ninety three times.(no comment)
Here is my data table:
Tonnes Tonnes Ratio
Gold Silver
Approx Annual  Mine Supply 3,150 26,616
Less China -440 -3,575
Less Russia -255 -1,350
Net exportable 2,455 21,691 8.84
Comex open int.12/07/2019 1,852 34,084 18.40
EFPs to 13/07/2019 3,150 37,721 11.97
EFPs 2018 7,310 88,554 12.11
Total of above 10,460 126,275 12.07
GLD/SLV at 12/07/2019 800 10,358 12.95
LBMA Total vault at 29/03,2019 7,671 36,196
Less BOE -5,057            –
Less GLD/SLV at 29/03/2019 -784 -9,642
Net residual LBMA 1,830 26,553 14.51
Regards
Nicholas
end
The way the CME formulates its longs and shorts, it is difficult to disprove or approve Butler.
(Ted Butler)

Wrong Whale

Theodore Butler | July 15, 2019 – 12:35pm Facebook Twitter Forward Print

Here’s an amended excerpt from the weekly review sent to subscribers on Saturday, July 13 –

The 4 big concentrated silver longs, which I have been writing about for nearly a month, further reduced their net long position by 3882 contracts to 62,707 contracts. The only reporting category to have liquidated enough (or any real) number of contracts in the reporting week were managed money traders, proving conclusively that managed money traders held a significant percentage of the very strange concentrated net long position in COMEX silver. How else could I have expected managed money long liquidation by the 4 concentrated longs on Monday?

This is in direct conflict with the new article by Alasdair Macleod, of which many of you asked my opinion. As I think most of you know, it is not my custom to critique others’ work, as that strikes me as unprofessional. Let everyone present what they wish to present. But there is enough factually incorrect in Macleod’s article that it would be a disservice not to address those very serious errors.

https://www.goldmoney.com/research/goldmoney- insights/a-whale-is-accumulating-silver-futures

Since I’ve been writing about the highly unusual and unprecedented concentrated long position in COMEX silver futures for weeks, I thought at first Alasdair picked it up from me (certainly, I didn’t pick it up from him). Macleod holds, among other things, that the concentrated long position is mostly (or exclusively held) by commercials and not managed money traders. That’s false on its face.

Since May 28 (all COT dates) the concentrated silver long position grew by nearly 18,000 contracts from 49,614 contracts to 67,328 contracts on June 25 (to coincide with Macleod’s article). Over that time the managed money traders bought a total of 59,930 net silver contracts. Over that same period, the commercials SOLD 53,678 net silver contracts. Unless there’s a new math being deployed here, the sharp increase in the concentrated long position was very unlikely to have been caused by commercials.

I have stipulated all along that there might be a commercial trader in the ranks of the concentrated long, but clearly at least two and most likely three of the four big silver longs are managed money traders. Plus this week’s exclusive long liquidation by the managed money traders and the concurrent reduction in the concentrated long position (nearly matching contract for contract) further confirms that Macleod’s basic premise is fundamentally incorrect. In addition, the concentrated long position grew the most when silver penetrated its moving averages to the upside and shrank when the moving averages were penetrated to the downside.

Even after the liquidation by the managed money traders and the big concentrated longs, over the past two reporting week, the managed money category is still slightly more long (on a gross basis) than the combined commercial gross long position (Producer/Merchant and Swap Dealers combined). That’s not evidence that the commercials are holding the majority of the concentrated long position – just the opposite.

And here’s an amended note based upon input from a subscriber after I published Saturday’s review. Alex pointed out that Macleod stated that the big commercial silver long held 50,000 of the 62,000 to 66,000 contracts held by the 4 big longs. That’s preposterous on a mathematical basis for two reasons. One, it would leave too few remaining contracts to be assigned to the three remaining longs. Second, the only commercial category for a big long to exist would be the Swap Dealer category and the total gross long position in that category has barely been above 50,000 contracts over the past few months – making it impossible for one trader to hold that many net contracts.

Since the basic math in the article as to who holds the unusual concentrated long position in silver is so flawed, the speculation that follows is just as flawed. I found that all the speculation about a commercial trader (a user nonetheless) being the big long and further that it was China to be off the rails. Ditto with the convoluted discussion that the commercial sellers on the COMEX were largely mining companies. There are no mining companies hedging on the COMEX, otherwise they would have to publicly report such hedging according to the Financial Accounting Standard Board (FASB).

And I had to laugh at the explanation that mining companies hedged dore and that accounted for big swings in COMEX short positions. First, there is no reporting by public companies of COMEX hedging and even if there was, the same amount of ore is taken out of the ground and converted into metal every single day. Mining is not like growing crops when the harvest comes in at once, it’s a 24/7, 365 day operation, meaning if Dore’ was being hedged the hedges would be lifted when metal was produced, which takes weeks

I’m sick and tired about hearing how JPMorgan is acting on China’s behalf, a favorite of the whack- job tin-foil hat conspiracists. For one thing, would that make the manipulation run by JPMorgan any less illegal? Even if JPMorgan was manipulating prices in its role as the big silver and gold COMEX short for the benefit of a large client, how would that make the manipulation kosher? All it would add are charges of treason against JPM for benefitting a foreign nation over the US. But the real proof that JPMorgan is in it for its own benefit is because that’s how these boyz roll. JPMorgan putting the interests of its clients (any client) above its own has to be a joke. When has that ever occurred?

Finally, I would have preferred Macleod use a different term than “whale” because the last time that was used in connection with JPM was in the case of the London Whale, which as I recall didn’t end so peachy for JPMorgan. About the only redeeming feature of the article is that it correctly portrayed JPMorgan as the big silver kingpin (but for all the wrong reasons). You asked, I answered. The purpose here was not to flame anyone, but to set the record straight.

Ted Butler

July 15, 2019

end

Bitcoin Spikes Despite Mnuchin Warnings Of Crypto “National Security Issues”

Update (1420ET): Well so much for that. Dip-buyers piled in to Bitcoin after it dipped on Mnuchin’s scaremongering…

If “they” are that worried about it, it much be valuable.

 

Panic!!

Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin held an impromptu press conference to explain just how terrible and unpatriotic crytpocurrencies (and Facebook’s Libra) are.

“Bitcoin is highly volatile and based on thin air,”

“We are concerned about the speculative nature of bitcoin and will make sure that the U.S. financial system is protected from fraud,” ominously adding that cryptos are used by “money launderers, terrorist financiers, and various bad actors.”

“Treasury has very serious concerns over [Facebook’s] Libra.”

“This is indeed a national security issue,”

“We will not allow digital asset service providers to operate in the shadows.”

“Crypto investors should be careful.”

Cryptos turned back lower as the press conference got under way…

The sudden panic, following Libra’s white paper release, among establishment types is interesting. Amid clear dollar liquidity shortages and cornered central banks around the world, is this starting to set the stage for the next mega-crisis and the end of the dollar?

end

New US House Bill Would Ban Big Tech From ‘Banking’, Fine Facebook’s Libra $1 Million Per Day

Shortly before Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin held his crypto-fearmongering press conference, CoinTelegraph’s Kollen Post reports that a drafted bill entitled “Keep Big Tech out of Finance” has surfaced online, allegedly deriving from within the United States House of Representatives Financial Services Committee. The document’s metadata dates it July 12.

The bill’s provenance is unconfirmed, but crypto news site The Block quotes an inside source as saying it is with the Financial Services Committee.

A large platform utility may not establish, maintain, or operate a digital asset that is intended to be widely used as medium of exchange, unit of account, store of value, or any other similar function, as defined by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.”

The alleged bill goes on to define “a large platform utility” as a tech company that earns annual global revenues in excess of $25 billion.

Given that Libra is scheduled for hearings before the Senate Banking Committee on July 16 and with the House Financial Services Committee on July 17, this bill seems designed to preempt congressional authority to take decisive action on the issue of Libra.

image courtesy of CoinTelegraph

In fact, as Reuters reportsthe legislation proposes to impose a $1 million fine daily upon any firm that violates its proposed rules.

Libra has attracted commentary and criticism from many corners. Chair of the Financial Services Committee Maxine Waters initiated the congressional hearings on Libra on June 18 by calling for a moratorium on the project. As Cointelegraph reported at the time, Representative Waters wrote:

 “Given the company’s troubled past, I am requesting that Facebook agree to a moratorium on any movement forward on developing a cryptocurrency until Congress and regulators have the opportunity to examine these issues and take action”

The night of July 11, US President Donald Trump tweeted similar concerns about the lawfulness of crypto usage, expressing opposition to Libra, Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies as a whole, instead promoting the continued dominance of the U.S. dollar.

Reuters nonetheless anticipates that “pro-innovation” Republicans will put their muscle behind blocking such a move, and that the bill could face yet steeper resistance should it pass the lower chamber and be debated in the U.S. Senate.

end

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

 

end

 

Your early MONDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 6.8758/ GETTING VERY DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.8753   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 11.64 POINTS OR 0.40%

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 83.26 POINTS OR 0.29%

 

2. Nikkei closed UP   42.37 POINTS OR 0.20%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL GREEN 

 

 

 

USA dollar index UP TO 96.81/Euro RISES TO 1.1276

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: RISES TO. –.11/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 107.89/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 60.50 and Brent: 66.94

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE DOWN/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO -.23%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 1.67% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 0.53%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.90: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 2.34

3k Gold at $1416.05 silver at: 15.33   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 38/100 in roubles/dollar) 62.59

3m oil into the 60 dollar handle for WTI and 66 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 107.89 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9821 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1074 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to 0.23%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.12% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.65%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.7038..

Global Stocks Rise, S&P Pushes Above 3,000 As Earnings Season Begins

A busy week for macro data and the official launch of Q2 earnings is starting off on the right foot, with global stocks higher around the globe…

… following the release of China’s June/Q2 data dump, which saw GDP growth drop to 6.2%, the lowest on record, even as other key activity indicators such as retail sales, industrial output and fixed investment all miraculously rebounded, beating expectations.

S&P e-mini futures climbed alongside stocks in Europe and Asia at the start of a busy week for Federal Reserve speakers, corporate earnings and economic data, extending on last week’s gains to trade slightly higher on Monday and trading in record territory around 3,020  in the run up to the start of second-quarter earnings reports, beginning with Citigroup at 8am on Monday, whose shares are up 0.7% in premarket trade. It will be followed by other big banks such as JPMorgan, Goldman Sachsand Wells Fargo on Tuesday.

As companies start reporting quarterly results, investors will look for the impact of the long-drawn U.S.-China trade dispute on corporate profit. Other companies slated for this week include Bank of America, Netflix, Microsoft and Honeywell. Investors are bracing for the worst, with profits for the index expected to dip 2.0% year-over-year, the first quarterly decline in three years.

This week also sees a deluge of Fed speakers ahead of their blackout period from Saturday onwards. So, catch the last morsels of information while you can. Today we’ll hear from Williams in New York where he is due to make keynote remarks at a conference. Tomorrow Powell is due to speak at a Bank of France event in Paris while prior to that we’ll hear from Bostic, Kaplan and Bowman before Evans then speaks in the evening. On Thursday we’re then due to hear from Bostic and Williams again before Bullard and Rosengren speak on Friday.

Last week, gains in stocks were powered by comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell that reassured investors that an interest rate cut was highly likely at the central bank’s policy meeting later this month. This helped the S&P500 close above 3,000 points for the first time on Friday as investors rebuilt their bets of a sharp 50 basis-point rate cut in the July 30-31 meeting.

Also helping the mood was upbeat data out of China. where June reports on industrial production, retail sales and urban investment were well above expectations despite the continued slump in backward looking GDP.  That followed stronger-than-expected economic data in Europe and the United States last week, prompting investors to dial back some of their more pessimistic views on global growth.

“The Fed has signalled what its next policy steps will be, but there’s also a question mark as to what happens if the data improves,” said Rabobank fixed income strategist Matthew Cairns.

At 7:30 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were up 53 points, or 0.14%. S&P 500 e-minis were up 5.50 points, or 0.14% and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 13.75 points, or 0.2%.

Among US stocks on the move, Boeing fell 1.4% after a report that its 737 Max jet may stay grounded until early 2020 as the company seeks to fix its hazardous flight-control software. General Electric slipped marginally after brokerage UBS downgraded shares of the industrial conglomerate to “neutral” from “buy”, according to traders. Shares of paper packaging companies Westrock Co (WRK.N), Packaging Corp of America (PKG.N) and International Paper Co fell between  3.3% and 2.4% and were the top losers on the benchmark index before the bell. KeyBanc downgraded their shares, citing risks from a further fall in containerboard and pulp prices.

In rates, ten-year Treasuries were little changed while most euro zone government bond yields inched down from recent 3 1/2-week highs on Monday, with reassuring signs from the global economy preventing steeper falls for now. Greece was in focus after its mandated banks for its issue of a seven-year bond, according to IFR Markets. The German Bund has risen around 15 bps from record lows earlier this month and is back above its June 18 lows, when comments by ECB President Mario Draghi sparked expectations for monetary policy easing soon. The closely watched gap between 10-year Italian and German bond yields was 3 bps tighter at around 195 bps after DBRS on Friday maintained Italy’s sovereign credit rating at BBB.

“The whole movement in bonds lost steam last week,” said Norbert Wuthe, a rates strategist at Bayerische Landesbank. “What we saw was a taming of market expectations for European Central Bank easing, and also the ECB calmed expectations for new QE.”

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Index fell to the lowest level in more than a week, triggered by the Federal Reserve’s hints at policy easing, while the New Zealand and Australian dollars led gains on strong Chinese data. The pound slipped versus both the dollar and euro ahead of labor-market and inflation data this week. Moves across Group-of-10 currencies were subdued as Japanese markets were closed for a holiday, while European government bonds rallied and European shares drifted lower.

WTI crude oil nudged higher, as WTI and Brent futures remained choppy within a relatively narrow intraday band thus far. The former currently hovers just above the 60/bbl mark whilst the latter remains afloat closer to the 67/bbl, as the benchmarks largely reflect market sentiment in the absence of fresh catalysts. Elsewhere, Hurricane Barry has abated to a tropical depression, with eyes now on any refineries coming back online after the Gulf’s crude output was cut by 70% on Friday amid storm preparations. ING notes that output in the Gulf is likely to return to normal levels over the coming days. Meanwhile, gold prices are little changed amid a steady USD and base metals were bolstered by the mostly upbeat Chinese data overnight. As such copper has reclaimed 2.7/lb to the upside while nickel surged in excess of 3.0% deriving additional strength from supply woes.

Expected data includes Empire State Manufacturing Survey. Citigroup and JB Hunt are among companies reporting earnings.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.1% to 3,018.00
  • Stoxx Europe 600 down 0.1% to 386.39
  • MXAP up 0.2% to 160.69
  • MXAPJ up 0.3% to 526.95
  • Nikkei up 0.2% to 21,685.90
  • Topix down 0.2% to 1,576.31
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.3% to 28,554.88
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.4% to 2,942.19
  • Sensex up 0.2% to 38,816.02
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.7% to 6,652.99
  • Kospi down 0.2% to 2,082.48
  • German 10Y yield fell 1.9 bps to -0.229%
  • Euro up 0.04% to $1.1274
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 3.9 bps to 1.384%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 3.6 bps to 0.532%
  • Brent futures up 0.5% to $67.05/bbl
  • Gold spot little changed at $1,416.17
  • U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 96.79

Top Overnight News

  • Chinese industrial production and retail sales for June beat all estimates. The monthly indicators offered some optimism and suggested the economy was stabilizing after data showed GDP growth moderated to 6.2% last quarter, the weakest since the data series began in 1992
  • U.S. President Donald Trump told aides he’s considering removing Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross after Supreme Court defeat on adding a citizenship question to the census, NBC reports, citing multiple people familiar with the conversations
  • Anti-Brexit campaigner Gina Miller is ready to take the U.K. government to court again if Boris Johnson tries to suspend Parliament to force through a no-deal Brexit. Miller, who already used the courts to force the government to get parliamentary approval before beginning Brexit talks, said she’s assembling the same team to counter Johnson
  • Hong Kong police arrested more than 40 people after attempts to clear the remnants of a mass anti-government march resulted in dramatic clashes with demonstrators inside a suburban shopping mall, piling more pressure on embattled leader Carrie Lam
  • Ursula von der Leyen’s two-week dash to secure the most powerful policy- making job in the European Union may end with a photo finish. Unexpectedly tapped to head the European Commission after weeks of grueling negotiations by national leaders, the German defense minister and ally of Chancellor Angela Merkel is chasing support among left-leaning factions to put her over the top in a secret ballot Tuesday in the EU Parliament

Asian equity markets traded mixed as the region digested a slew of tier-1 Chinese data and with the absence of Japanese participants adding to the initial lull. ASX 200 (-0.6%) was negative with the downside led by underperformance in tech and telecoms, while financials also weighed on the index with AMP Capital shares down around 15% after it noted the unlikelihood it will proceed with its life insurance unit sale due to opposition by the RBNZ. Conversely, Hang Seng (+0.3%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.4%) were pressured at the open after the recent mixed lending and trade data from China, while participants were also cautious as they awaited more tier-1 releases from the world’s 2nd largest economy including Chinese GDP, Industrial Production and Retail Sales. The data then proved to be better than expected as most of the figures topped estimates which inspired a recovery in stocks, although still showed China’s economic growth slipped to 6.2% Y/Y as expected which was the slowest pace since 1992.

Top Asian News

  • DBS Downgrades Singapore’s Growth Forecasts Amid Recession Risk
  • Singapore June Home Sales Slip as Developers Slow Launches
  • AMP Reboot in Tatters as $2.3 Billion Life Sale Collapses

European indices have drifted lower in recent trade, but are largely unchanged [Eurostoxx 50 U/C] following on from a mixed Asia-Pac trade as volumes were mired amid the absence of Japan. Sectors are also little inspired, albeit material names benefiting marginally from the boost in base metal prices post-Chinese data. Meanwhile, movers include the likes of Antofagasta (+4.0%) after the Co’s JV with Barrick Gold was awarded USD 5.84bln in damages from a legal dispute with the Pakistani government. Elsewhere, AB InBev (-2.0%) shares declined after the Co. back-tracked on its Hong Kong IPO plans due to little demand from long-term investors, the IPO was meant aid the Co. with its USD 100bln debt pile. Airbus (+0.6%) shares rose in early trade amid a weekend WSJ article which highlighted Boeing’s 737 Max is likely to be grounded until January next year as the jet is yet to satisfy all safety requirements, according to union leaders and officials. Finally, analysts at JPM have raised their 12-month S&P 500 price target to 3200 (Prev. 3000) citing factors including synchronised easing of global central banks, attractive relative valuation, intracycle profit recovering by year-end and a record share buyback to buoy equity demand; for reference, the S&P closed at a record 3013 on Friday. The analysts also expect a partial US-Sino trade deal heading into the US election year, although this has been caveated as their largest single downside risk to the view.

Top European News

  • Merkel’s Ally Pushes for Last-Minute Votes to Take Top EU Job
  • Italy Can’t Stop Talking About Salvini’s Russia Tape Scandal
  • Negative-Yield Credit Mountain May Double as Euro Spreads Narrow
  • Ardagh to Combine With Exal to Create Metal Packaging Giant

In FX, the AUD and NZD continue to outperform, and the latest advances have been made with the aid of better than expected Chinese data in the form of ip and retail sales. However, with GDP in line with consensus and slowing to a 27 year low, it is the Kiwi rather than Aussie that has really extended gains from last week to a 0.6725 high vs its US counterpart and towards 1.0450 in cross terms as Aud/Usd stalls at 0.7035. Note also, Westpac sees more upside for Nzd/Usd in the short term based on the Fed’s dovish tilt, but then a reversal through 0.6600 next month assuming the RBNZ eases again. More immediately, NZ inflation for Q2 looms and the forecast is for firmer CPI prints.

  • CHF/EUR/JPY/CAD – All narrowly mixed vs the Greenback, but with the Franc also getting a bullish nod via a bank trade recommendation as MS favours going short of Usd/Chf at current levels circa 0.9835 for 0.9730 with a 0.9980 stop, while Eur/Chf hovers closer to the base of a 1.1100-1.1085 range and shrugs off weak Swiss producer/import prices. Meanwhile, the single currency remains trapped in a tight range inside 1.1250-1.1300 vs the Buck and flanked by key chart support and resistance, like the 100 DMA at 1.1255, a 50% Fib at 1.1303 and the 200 DMA at 1.1323. Elsewhere, the Yen is pivoting 108.00 in an equally tight range and with trade/interest hampered by Japan’s Marine Day market holiday, but the Loonie is consolidating recent gains between 1.3042-22 after last Wednesday’s relatively hawkish or neutral BoC hold.
  • GBP – In stark contrast to yesterday’s Lords result, the Pound is lagging behind G10 peers, and especially the Kiwi. Cable is only just holding 1.2550 after another fade ahead of 1.2600 even though the Dollar is generally soft and the DXY is depressed below 97.000, with the ongoing UK political void weighing on sentiment and Brexit still up in the air as a result.
  • EM – The Lira is holding up quite well in the face of another Turkish ratings downgrade (1 peg by Fitch to BB-, outlook negative) with Usd/Try meandering between 5.7070-7325 vs a peak of 5.7800 late last Friday when a White House statement about Turkey’s S-400 missile system purchase from Russia was unexpectedly shelved amidst speculation that US President Trump may err on the side of lenience when it comes to any sanctions. Conversely, the Real may come under pressure and Usd/Brl rally from 3.7400 on the back of reports Brazil’s lower house could delay a vote on pension reforms until August (ie after this Friday’s recess) due to proposed amendments that could diminish the financial savings from the new package.

Little to report on the energy front, although WTI and Brent futures remain choppy within a relatively narrow intraday band thus far. The former currently hovers just above the 60/bbl mark whilst the latter remains afloat closer to the 67/bbl, as the benchmarks largely reflect market sentiment in the absence of fresh catalysts. Elsewhere, Hurricane Barry has abated to a tropical depression, with eyes now on any refineries coming back online after the Gulf’s crude output was cut by 70% on Friday amid storm preparations. ING notes that output in the Gulf is likely to return to normal levels over the coming days. Meanwhile, gold prices are little changed amid a steady USD and base metals were bolstered by the mostly upbeat Chinese data overnight. As such copper has reclaimed 2.7/lb to the upside while nickel surged in excess of  3.0% deriving additional strength from supply woes. BSEE said Gulf of Mexico crude output was cut by 70% on Friday and natural gas output was reduced by 56% due to storm preparations, while the NHC stated on Sunday that Barry weakened to a tropical depression over north-western Louisiana and that life-threatening flooding rains will continue into Monday.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Empire Manufacturing, est. 2, prior -8.6
  • 8:50am: Fed’s Williams Speaks at Libor briefing

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

If you’re reading this then there was no Wi-Fi on my flight to Asia overnight and I’ve still no idea who has won the Cricket World Cup around 12 hours after it finished. England were struggling as I had to turn my phone off and I felt sick as a dog with anxiety over it. Hopefully there has been a fairy-tale ending. I’ve written most of today’s EMR watching it very stressed but I’m passing over the Asia session to Henry and Craig.

So with Jim fast asleep at 40,000 feet it’s straight to China this morning after the monthly data dump was released a few hours ago. The headline reading is that the economy slowed to yoy growth of 6.2% in Q2 (from 6.4% in Q1), in line with expectations but still the slowest pace of growth for the Chinese economy since 1992 when quarterly data began. A number of other figures for June surprised on the upside however including industrial production (+6.3% yoy vs. +5.2% expected), retail sales (+9.8% vs. +8.5% expected), and fixed assets investment (+5.8% yoy vs. +5.5% expected). All three of these are also up from the previous month, so policymakers and investors will be analysing the figures carefully to see if they represent signs of stabilisation amidst the ongoing trade war with the US.

Asian equity markets have pared back losses following the release, with the Hang Seng (+0.21%) and the Shanghai Comp (+0.76%) both trading higher, while the KOSPI (-0.03%) is up from its earlier lows. Markets in Japan are closed however so volumes are fairly light across the board. S&P 500 futures also rose +0.10%, following the index’s record close on Friday.

In terms of the week ahead and with just over two weeks to the FOMC meeting, this week sees a deluge of Fed speakers ahead of their blackout period from Saturday onwards. So, catch the last morsels of information while you can. Today we’ll hear from Williams in New York where he is due to make keynote remarks at a conference. Tomorrow Powell is due to speak at a Bank of France event in Paris while prior to that we’ll hear from Bostic, Kaplan and Bowman before Evans then speaks in the evening. On Thursday we’re then due to hear from Bostic and Williams again before Bullard and Rosengren speak on Friday.

In data terms the highlights in the US include retail sales and industrial production (both tomorrow) while earnings season starts to come into view with 58 S&P 500 companies reporting including the big banks. Can US earnings escape a technical earnings recession and avoid a second negative quarter YoY? S&P 500 expectations are for -3.0% YoY after -0.3% in Q1. According to Factset, over the last 5 years actual earnings have exceeded expected earnings by +4.8% so we may yet get a positive number. In terms of headliners, Citigroup report today, JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo tomorrow, Bank of America on Wednesday and Morgan Stanley on Thursday. We’ll also get results from some of the tech sector with Netflix, IBM and eBay all reporting on Wednesday and Microsoft on Thursday.

Staying with the US, on Wednesday former Special Counsel Robert Mueller is due to testify before Congress on his investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election. The suggestion is that the testimony won’t go beyond what Mueller issued in his report in April.

Over in Europe we see the July ZEW survey in Germany tomorrow and final CPI revisions for the Euro Area on Wednesday. In the UK it’s a busy week ahead for data with May and June employment data tomorrow, June inflation on Wednesday, June retail sales on Thursday and June public finances on Friday. The rest of the day by day week ahead is at the end.

In markets last week, the highlight was undoubtedly the further rally in US equities. The S&P 500, NASDAQ, and DOW all advanced to fresh all-time highs by Friday’s close, ending the week +0.78%, +1.01%, and +1.52% (+0.46%, +0.59%, +0.90% on Friday) respectively and included the S&P 500 finally closing above 3000 for the first time on Friday. The moves had a pro-cyclical tilt, with semiconductors up +2.91% (+1.90% Friday) and utilities lagging, down -0.11% (-0.64%). US Stocks were partially boosted by a softer dollar, which dipped -0.49% (-0.25%), while the stronger euro weighed on European bourses with the single currency edging +0.40% (+0.14% Friday) on the week. The STOXX 600 index fell -0.84% (+0.04% Friday). HY bonds in both regions weakened a touch though, with cash spreads up +2bps and +6ps in the US and Europe.

In fixed income, the 2y10y Treasuries curve steepened +10.4bps (flat Friday) to 27.3bps, the biggest steepening week since early October. That move was driven by a -1.2bps (-1.5bps Friday) slide in two-year yields, as expectations continued to firm for Fed rate cuts. At the same time, 10-year yields rose +8.9bps (-1.6bps Friday). Most of the move was driven by higher inflation breakevens, which rose after the strong CPI report on Thursday but were generally pressured upward by rising oil prices. WTI crude rose +4.69% (+0.02% Friday), as US inventory data showed a large drawdown in stockpiles. Yields also rose in Europe, helped by strong industrial production data, with bunds weaker, however BTPs outperformed, trading flat on the week (+3.9bps Friday). That took the BTP-bund spread to 195bps, its lowest level since the current government was formed just over a year ago.

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)MONDAY MORNING/ SUNDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 11.64 POINTS OR 0.40%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 83.26 POINTS OR 0.29%   /The Nikkei closed UP 42.37 POINTS OR 0.20%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .63%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.8758 /Oil UP TO 60.50 dollars per barrel for WTI and 66.94 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 6.8758 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.8752 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

 

 

 

 

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3c China/Chinese affairs

The Chinese Military is warning the USA again not to give Taiwan arms

(Two commentaries:  courtesy zerohedge)

 

“Playing With Fire”: China’s Military Warns US Over Taiwan Arms Sales

China’s military has predictably slammed Washington’s recent approval to send $2.2 billion in arms to Taiwan, announced Monday. The PLA warned among other things that the move“severely undermined Sino-US military-to-military relations” at an already sensitive juncture in relations. Additionally, as we reported previously, Beijing authorities are preparing potential sanctions against any US firms found to be involved in future Taiwan weapons sales.

“The People’s Liberation Army is strongly dissatisfied by and resolutely opposes Washington’s recent approval of a $2.2 billion arms deal for Taiwan, an action that has seriously undermined Sino-US military relations,” according to Senior Colonel Wu Qian, a spokesman for the Ministry of National Defense, as reported in Chinese state media.

Earlier this week the US State Department approved the possible sale to Taiwan of M1A2T Abrams tanks, Stinger missiles and related equipment at an estimated value of $US2.2 billion despite vocal Chinese criticism of the  deal.

 

A U.S. M1A2 SEP Abrams battle tank in a live-fire exercise, via Axios/Getty

The PLA’s Friday statements continued: “China’s adamant opposition against US arms sales to Taiwan has always been clear and consistent,” Colonel Qian said.

“The wrongful actions by the US have seriously violated the one-China principle and the three Sino-US joint communiques, and they have interfered with China’s domestic affairs and violated its sovereignty and security interests.”

As a reminder, one month ago China’s Foreign Ministry urged the United States to halt the sales to avoid harming bilateral ties, saying it was “seriously concerned”.

And now Beijing appears to be taking more aggressive action:

Beijing said on Friday it will issue sanctions against the US companies involved in the latest arms sale to Taiwan, as tensions between China and the United States continue to rise.

The foreign ministry said in a brief statement that the move by Washington had violated China’s territorial sovereignty and national security.

“To protect our national interest, China will impose sanctions on the US companies involved in the arms sale,”ministry spokesman Geng Shuang was quoted as saying.

And separately, China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi said during a state visit to Budapest on Friday that the US must stop “playing with fire”.

“We urge the US to fully recognise the gravity of the Taiwan question … [and] not to play with fire on the question of Taiwan,” the foreign minister told a news conference.

The proposed sale also comes at a perilously sensitive moment: at the start of June, during the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, China’s Defense Minister Wei Fenghe warned the United States not to meddle in security disputes over Taiwan and the South China Sea.

 

File photo of Ministry of National Defense spokesman Wu Qian, via SCMP

He had also launched into a bellicose attack on opponents to China’s expansionist plans towards the South China Sea and Taiwan, declaring: “If they want to fight, we will fight till the end”.

Though long seen by Beijing as China’s “renegade province,” the United States remains Taiwan’s primary arms supplier, despite having no “official” or formal ties other than the crucial Taiwan Relations Act (TRA), which has loomed large in Sino-US relations of the past decades.

end

China Sends A Message: Holds Military Drills Off Taiwan, Will Sanction US Defense Firms

Following last week’s State Department approval of the sale of $2.2 billion in arms to Taiwan, China’s Foreign Ministry confirmed Monday that it will follow through on threats first made days ago to impose sanctions on American companies selling arms to Taiwan.

Crucially this confirmation came simultaneous to provocative new military exercises off China’s southeast coast, near Taiwan, which involved the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) navy and air force. Downplaying the maneuvers, the PLA described the drills as “a routine arrangement according to (our) annual plans.”

 

The PLA conducted a new round of provocative military exercises in the Taiwan Strait. Image source: Chinamil.com.cn via SCMP

“China’s government and Chinese companies will not cooperate or have commercial contacts with these U.S. companies,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang told a daily news briefing. He was responding to potential US sales to Taiwan of M1A2T Abrams tanks, Stinger missiles and related equipment at an estimated value of $US2.2 billion, despite longtime vocal Chinese criticism and threats.

“I can’t reveal the details at the moment. But believe this – Chinese people always stress standing by their word,” the foreign minister added. Though few details have been revealed, a handful of American defense companies have been named among the first targets of Beijing’s promised impending sanctions, including General Dynamics, Raytheon co., Honeywell, Oshkosh Corp., and the Pensylvania operations of BAE Systems.

As Reuters reports:

On Sunday, the ruling Communist Party’s official People’s Daily posted an article on its WeChat account identifying U.S. companies that could be vulnerable to sanctions.

They included Honeywell International Inc (HON.N), which makes the engines for the Abrams tanks, and private jets maker Gulfstream Aerospace, which is owned by General Dynamics. China is an important market for both Honeywell and Gulfstream.

Beijing has condemned such arms transfers as a violation of international law and an aggressive assault on China’s sovereignty and national security. On Friday Chinese Ambassador to the US, Cui Tiankai, warned that any US government to “split” Taiwan from China would be met with a decisive and fierce response:

“Those who play with fire will only get themselves burned. Period, he tweeted.

Since at least the beginning of the year, President Xi has warned that ‘reunification’ between Taiwan and the mainland is inevitable, and hinted that Beijing wouldn’t hesitate to attack any foreign power that tries to stop China. In response, Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen has insisted that the people of Taiwan would ‘never’ tolerate rule by the Communist Party, and insisted that the island’s military would fight.

As we noted previously, when it comes to tail risks that could cause WWIII, simmering tensions around Taiwan and Beijing’s increasingly belligerent rhetoric probably rank as one of the most probable, with the US trade war to boot. China’s foreign minister had warned on Friday that the US must stop “playing with fire”.

“We urge the US to fully recognize the gravity of the Taiwan question … [and] not to play with fire on the question of Taiwan,” he said . Indeed it’s a fire that could soon flare out of control centered on the decades long Taiwan question.

end

The truth behind the real Huawei from expert Gordon Chang
(courtesy Gordon Chang/Gatestone)

Trump’s Huawei Reprieve Is A National Security Debacle

Authored by Gordon Chang via The Gatestone Institute,

Tuesday, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross outlined the scope of exemptions to be granted to sales and licenses to Huawei Technologies, the Chinese telecom giant.

At the end of last month, President Donald Trump publicly promised to give the Chinese company a reprieve from newly implemented U.S. restrictions.

 

Trump’s move, announced after his meeting with Chinese ruler Xi Jinping at the conclusion of the Osaka G20 summit, was a strategic mistake. Moreover, it was a humiliation for the United States, almost an acknowledgment of Beijing’s supremacy.

The U.S. Commerce Department, effective May 16, added Huawei, the world’s largest networking equipment manufacturer and second-largest smartphone maker, to its Entity List. The designation means that no American company, without prior approval from the Bureau of Industry and Security, is allowed to sell or license to Huawei products and technology covered by the U.S. Export Administration Regulations.

Beijing then demanded the Trump administration withdraw the designation. On June 27, the Wall Street Journal reported that Huawei’s removal from the Entity List was one of China’s three main preconditions to a comprehensive trade deal.

Trump, incredibly, complied with the demand from Beijing. At his June 29 press conference, the American president said he was granting the reprieve.

Trump was not specific about the reprieve’s scope, and since then administration officials have tried to walk back his comments. Trade advisor Peter Navarro, for instance, this month told CNN that sales to Huawei for its 5G products — 5G is the fifth generation of wireless communication — would be forbidden. Earlier, there were suggestions that waivers for smartphones would be allowed.

Should any waivers be granted? “It is their mechanism for spying,” Senator Marsha Blackburn (R-TN), referring to Huawei, told Fox News on Sunday.

She is right. Huawei is in no position to resist Beijing’s demands to illicitly gather intelligence. For one thing, Beijing owns Huawei. The Shenzhen-based enterprise maintains it is “employee-owned,” but that is an exaggeration. Founder Ren Zhengfei holds a 1 percent stake, and the remainder is effectively owned by the state. Moreover, in the Communist Party’s top-down system, no one can resist a command from the ruling organization. Furthermore, Articles 7 and 14 of China’s National Intelligence Law, enacted in 2017, requires Chinese nationals and entities to spy if relevant authorities make a demand. Ren has maintained the company would not snoop on others, but that claim, in view of the above, is not credible.

Huawei has, in fact, been implicated in stealing tech almost from the moment it was formed in 1987. The company was built on stolen Cisco Systems technology, and according to recent allegations, Huawei has never stopped stealing. The Justice Department in January unsealed an indictment against the company for the theft of intellectual property from T-Mobile. The FBI, according to a Bloomberg report, is investigating Huawei for pilfering smartphone glass technology from Akhan Semiconductor, an Illinois-based firm.

Huawei’s rampant theft has been effective in injuring its competition. For instance, many consider the company’s campaign to take tech was largely responsible for the 2013 failure of Nortel Networks, the Canadian company.

Additionally, Beijing has used Huawei servers to surreptitiously download data from others, most notably the African Union from 2012 to 2017.

Not surprisingly, Huawei is laying the groundwork for grabbing tomorrow’s data.

First, Christopher Balding’s study of résumés of Huawei employees reveals that some of them claim concurrent links with units of the Chinese military, in roles that look as if they involve intelligence collection. As he writes in his study, “there is an undeniable relationship between Huawei and the Chinese state, military, and intelligence gathering services.”

Second, recent analyses show Huawei software to have an unusually high number of security flaws. According to Finite State, a cybersecurity firm, a scan of nearly 10,000 Huawei firmware images showed that “55% had at least one potential backdoor. These backdoor access vulnerabilities allow an attacker with knowledge of the firmware and/or with a corresponding cryptographic key to log into the device.” Huawei, according to the survey, ranked the lowest among its competitors in this regard.

Theft is not the only risk. As Sen. Blackburn pointed out to Fox News, Huawei will also serve as Beijing’s mechanism for controlling the networks operating the devices of tomorrow. The concern is that the Chinese government and military will be able to use Huawei equipment to remotely manipulate devices networked on the Internet of Things (IoT), no matter where those devices are located.So, China may be able to drive your car into oncoming traffic, unlock your front door, or turn off or speed up your pacemaker.

On Tuesday, Secretary Ross echoed earlier administration comments when he promised his department would only issue exemptions “where there is no threat to U.S. national security.”

That sounds reassuring, but it is not possible to divide Huawei into threatening and non-threatening components. Huawei management can take profits from innocuous-looking parts of the business to support the obviously dangerous parts. Money is fungible, so the only safe course would be to prohibit all transactions with the company.

Ross on Tuesday implied that licenses would be granted for items available from other countries, saying “we will try to make sure that we don’t just transfer revenue from the U.S. to foreign firms.” At first glance, sales of those items appear non-objectionable, but, as the New York Times reported on Tuesday, U.S. companies seeking exemptions acknowledge that their products are often more advanced than those from Japan, South Korea, and other countries.

Therefore, the better course would be to get all American suppliers to stop all sales and licenses and to rally Tokyo, Seoul, and other capitals to do the same. That would severely disrupt Huawei, perhaps forcing it out of business or at least impeding its progress. In short, Ross is underestimating America’s leverage.

As Eli Lake, writing on the Bloomberg site, points out, American policy on Huawei looks like it had “collapsed” after the bilateral meeting with Xi. Lake is right. Beijing, buoyed by the talk of the American climb-down, is now fast selling Huawei equipment around the world, which means, in the normal course of events, the Chinese will soon control the world’s 5G backbone.

Think of the consequences.

“Imagine a world dominated by China,” Jonathan Bass of PTM Images told Gatestone. “Close your eyes and pretend to wake up in a world controlled by Xi Jinping, militarily, economically, politically, culturally.”

This is the world, thanks to Huawei, that we will soon face.

end
Beijing losing control of its economy.  GDP growth only 6.2%..exports falter by 1.2% and imports into the country fall by over 7%.  Yet Chin continues to supply debt which will cripple the banks.
(courtesy zerohedge)

Meanwhile In China, Beijing Is Losing Control Of The Economy

Something strange is happening in China: Beijing appears to be steadily losing control of the economy, which by definition is impossible for a centrally-planned, command economy such as China’s, and yet the latest signals are clear and ominous.

Consider the following: on Friday, just after Beijing reported the latest disappointing trade data for the month of June which saw exports falling 1.3% in June from a year ago – as exports to the US tumbled by 7.8% – and imports shrank a more-than-expected 7.3%

… the PBOC published the latest monthly credit stats, which showed that after several months of subdued credit growth, in June Total Social Financing – the broadest credit aggregate – rose by a significant 2,260BN yuan in June, the most in three months and easily beating the consensus print of 1900BN.

 

This took place even as new CNY loans of RMB1,660 billion came slightly below consensus at RMB1,700 billion, while China’s Shadow banking deleveraging continued for a third consecutive month and 14 of the last 16.

And while China’s M2 missed (8.5% YoY vs exp. 8.6%, skirting just above the all time low of 8.0% which it hit one year ago, which is to be expected considering China’s record debt load requires ever more new debt to make an upward impression)…

 

… the better-than-expected TSF print was mainly a reflection of policy intentions: as a reminder, the government tried to loosen policy in June, for the second time this year, as after “taking the foot off the accelerator” in April and May, the economy started to slow meaningfully after 1Q and inflationary pressures were not as large as expected, the trade dispute posed a much bigger challenge than expected and there were rising level of anxieties among market participants following the Baoshang Bank takeover. As a result the government pushed for a reacceleration of government bond issuance, and, partially because of this and due to the lock up in the repo and Negotiable Certificates of Deposit markets, sharply lowered the level of interbank rates (overnight SHIBOR) despite normal seasonality pressures to the upside, pushing the rate to the lowest level since the financial crisis.

On the other hand, and in light of the gargantuan January TSF injection, knowing the amount of government bond issuance was particularly large, and given there is no intention to be quite as aggressive with policy loosening, the PBOC apparently did not push for a very large amount of bank lending, which explains the modest miss in the bank loan increase. Meanwhile, Goldman notes that apart from fiscal and monetary policy measures, the government likely also took administrative measures to accelerate the pace of construction investment projects.

And yet, despite all these actions, the effects on the economy “remain unclear” according to Goldman; in reality, the effects have bee negligible, and economic growth has continued to shrink, prompting many to ask if Beijing isn’t losing control of the situation and a dreaded “hard-landing” is imminent? And while it is true that Beijing could – at least in theory do more – there is also the question if it isn’t approaching the limit of its interventionist powers?

Consider that Chinese local bond issuance – the most readily available instrument at the province level to fine tune growth – has been scorching in recent years, resulting in strong credit dynamics…

… and even so the latest Chinese manufacturing PMIs both slumped into contraction.

It’s not just soft surveys that continue to grind lower: June data released so far including PMIs, trade, and inflation – in particular PPI which is closely related to short-term demand growth…

… have not been encouraging, and as Bloomberg notes, “China is grappling with a slowdown that will see output growth slide to the weakest pace in almost three decades this year”, as factors far beyond the trade war with the U.S. weigh on the world’s second-largest economy. And speaking of the trade war, it is becoming increasingly clear that Beijing desperately needs it to continue just to allow president Xi to use it as a convenient scapegoat for all that is wrong with China.

Of which there is lots: GDP is forecast to grow at 6.2% in the second quarter, the slowest since at least 1992with data due for release on Monday set to show whether the downward forces from external demand, deflationary factory prices and contracting manufacturing can be offset by stabilizing investment, brighter consumer sentiment and a rebounding property sector. In short, whether the government has lost control of the economy.

Meanwhile, what little green shoots have taken hold in China will depend on how well the government’s targeted stimulus policies can lift local production and counteract the trade war’s effects, which as recent credit data shows, are so far lacking.

“China’s economy will slow further in the second half as external demand remains the biggest drag, and it’ll likely stabilize from there under policy support,” said UBS’ China chief economist Wang Tao. “The annual growth rate will stay above 6%.”

Setting the immediate catalysts aside for a moment, there’s far more pain down the line.

First, there’s what back in January we called a tectonic shift in China’s economy, as China’s current account surplus (trade balance plus investment, profit and dividend flows) has collapsed from $300 BN in 2015 and is expected to be in deficit by $20BN this year, for the first time in modern Chinese history. This means that not only the US, but also China will soon be dependent on the capital generosity of foreigners to fund China’s current account deficit, which in turn will require Beijing to further open up its capital markets. But can it do that without sparking another capital flight panic as local deposits flee, resulting in a sharp drop in China’s reserves and yuan? The answer: nobody knows.

Then, there’s demographics: as China’s population ages and the economy transitions from the double-digit growth rates of the mid-2000s, policy makers are attempting to manage the path down, while curbing debt and fending off mass industrial unemployment. Those efforts according to Bloomberg can be seen in three key sectors: infrastructure, retail sales and and property.

On the topic of infrastructure, how strongly fixed-asset investment growth can pick up is key as infrastructure investment will have to do the heavy lifting, as manufacturers continue to be pressured by the tariff threats and are hesitant about new investment. As a result, economists from UBS, Australia & New Zealand Banking Group and Morgan Stanley expect infrastructure investment growth to continue to gradually accelerate this year.

In an attempt to control the fallout, at the start of the year, Beijing introduced a fiscal stimulus plan consisting of two trillion yuan ($291 billion) of tax cuts which is (too) slowly feeding through into the economy. The government has stepped up efforts recently, easing the rules for using government debt in some infrastructure projects and pledging to renovate hundreds of thousands of old buildings. The relaxation of the use of government debt can increase investment by 800 billion yuan to 1 trillion yuan, UBS’s Wang said according to Bloomberg.

Here, ANZ analysts pointed to a leading indicator of infrastructure investment – excavator sales – which declined again in June, but at a slowed pace, suggesting a gradual recovery in investment activity.

An even more important signal is local retail sales, as China – which is urgently transitioning from a trade to a consumption driven economy – needs its masses of middle-class consumers “to help drag it out of a trade-induced slump.” There is a problem though: this year auto sales and property-related consumption such as home appliances have been among the main drags on weak retail sales, and there aren’t clear signs of recovery yet in those sectors.

As we reported last week, Chinese [assenger-car sales posted the first increase in June in more than a year, but only after dealers offered huge discounts, crippling profits and sending Chinese automaker stocks sharply lower. Meanwhile, economists remain skeptical: ING Bank’s Iris Pang said the auto industry will continue to face challenges from both “technological disruption from the ride hailing apps” such as Didi as well as cyclically slowing growth.

The final pillar of China’s growth, real estate, has so far been relatively stable, but here too storm clouds are gathering. As Bloomberg notes, policy makers are trying to keep a tight lid on the property sector, always a candidate for “bubbly” asset prices. Property development investment has stayed stable this year, and regulatory curbs mean that growth will stay within bounds.

However, amid fears of a slowdown and overexpansion, the country’s banking regulator has asked trust companies with fast-growing businesses in the real estate sector to control the pace of expansion and manage risks better, Xinhua News Agency reported. The People’s Bank of China has also requested banks to not lower mortgage rates further, despite easier monetary conditions. As a result, the amount of land area purchased by developers has tumbled on a Y/Y basis to a level not seen since China’s devaluation and subsequent crisis.

And so, as Beijing’s grip on the economy appears to be easing one finger at a time, what is the worst case possible outcome?

According to Nomura’s Lu Ting, in a scenario where the trade war negotiations fall apart and tariffs on all of China’s exports again appear on the horizon, the property and auto sectors will be where policy makers try to buffer the economy: “Beijing will likely roll out more real stimulus measures such as cutting purchase tax for passenger cars and forcing major cities to ease auto license quotes,” he said while adding that property markets can be goosed eased again:

Since late 2018, Beijing has shifted its stance on the property sectors of large cities from a broad-based tightening to “one policy for one city” and “city-specific polices based on local situations”, which essentially gives local governments more discretion on formulating their own property policies. However, with rebounding home prices amid the recovery of property markets in large cities in Q1, Beijing in April again began expressing concerns about the risk of re-inflating the property bubble and reinstated some tightening measures. If China’s export growth severely drops in coming quarters due to an escalation of US/China trade war, we expect Beijing to once again ease tightening measures in property markets.

What is more troubling for Beijing is that the fate of its economy now largely in the hands of Donald Trump, and in a full-scale trade war scenario, Nomura estimates that, in the year following the imposition of the additional tariff on the remaining $300Bn list, “China would directly lose 0.4% of GDP due to falling exports and another 1% on lower manufacturing investment due to the disruption of supply chains.” As a result, “despite Beijing’s more aggressive stimulus measures and Fed rate cuts, we would expect quarterly real GDP growth to drop to 6.0% in H2 and then to below 6.0% in 2020 and 2021.”

That would be a “hard-landing” scenario.

There is, of course, an optimistic outcome – the “deal” trade scenario, under which, Nomura expects quarterly GDP growth of 6.2% and 6.3% in Q3 and Q4 2019, respectively, reaching 6.2% in 2020 and 5.8% in 2021. Also under this scenario, Beijing would maintain its easing stance but not significantly step up stimulus measures, while credit growth would tick up only slightly. However, in this scenario Beijing would also lose the ability to blame China’s slowing economy, which is doing so for structural, not just trade-specific reasons, on the White House.

Meanwhile, even as it continues to lose its grip on the centrally-planned economy, Beijing still appears to have an intention to do the minimum required, as pushing the economy and market to a very strong level would incur costs in terms of leverage and increase the risk of overheating. The latter is a particular concern the government will aim to avoid, as the bursting of China’s financial bubble now would have an even more adverse effect than the Global Financial Crisis.

Finally, just as China’s worst case outcome is in the hands of the US, namely Donald Trump, so Trump may also be China’s saviour. Because, for all Trump’s demands that Powell cut rates, it would also hand China more room to make its own monetary policy easier, just when it needs it most. Which brings us to the biggest irony: with Trump clearly winning the trade war with China – as China is losing control over its economy – Trump’s demand for more easing, and pushing the US stock market to new all time highs, may be just the loophole that allows Beijing to avoid total defeat in the trade war, even if the tradeoff is 4 more years of Trump.

end

China Reports Slowest GDP Growth On Record, As Retail Sales, Industrial Output And Fixed Investment All Beat

The Chinese goalseek-o-tron was in perfect working order on Monday morning, when moments ago Beijing reported that China’s Q2 Y/Y GDP rose at 6.2%, once again precisely as consensus had expected, down from 64% in Q1 and the lowest since “modern” records started to be kept 27 years ago in 1992, dipping below even the financial crisis low of 6.4$

Additionally, 2Q cumulative GDP rose 6.3% y/y, also matching the consensus estimate, and down from 6.4% in Q1.

“We expect Beijing to ramp up stimulus measures in the second half despite more limited policy room, though markets should not put too high expectations on the scale and duration of these stimulus measures,” Nomura’s China economist Lu Ting wrote in a recent research note. “Domestic policies will to a large extent be dependent on the U.S.-China trade tensions.”

The disappointing GDP print comes just day after another miss, this time in the value of exports, which sharnk by 1.3% in dollar terms in June, after inching up in May despite the tensions with the US.

Property investment moderated to 10.9 per cent in the first six months, compared with growth of 11.2 per cent in the year to May. Strong property sales helped brighten the economy into April, but the sector lost momentum in the second quarter.

But while the record Chinese slowdown was widely as expected, there was an unexpected silver lining to the lowest Chinese GDP print on record, as all three core June economic indicators – retail sales, industrial output and fixed investment – beat sharply lowered expectations, to wit:

  • Retail Sales: 9.8%, Exp. 8.5%, up from 8.6%
  • Industrial Output: 6.3%, Exp. 5.2%, up from 5.0%
  • Fixed Asset Investment: 5.8%, Exp. 5.5%, up from 5.6%

And visually:

The fact that retail sales growth strengthened to 9.8% in June from 8.6% a month earlier, is an encouraging sign that domestic consumption has remained robust (that, or Beijing is now grossly manipulating every economic datapoint). Retail sales remained strong throughout the second quarter, as non-food inflation remained modest.

So while on one hand, the more widely followed GDP print indicates continued slowdown in the overall economy and adds to the pressure Chinese policy makers face as they attempt to negotiate a deal with the US – and while Chinese negotiators are talking with their U.S. counterparts again, there is no certainty that a deal will be reached – the sharp rebound in all three more contemporaneous indicators suggests that Beijing may finally be regaining control of China following some of the biggest credit injections on record as we discussed on Saturday.

Heading into today’s data, China’s Citi Econ surprise index was already down to a four year low, so with the improvement in today’s non-GDP reports, we are confident that many will speculate tomorrow that China may have finally hit the bottom of its recent slowdown and is finally turning the corner.

Whether that is true, or merely trade war propaganda to avoid the impression that China’s economy is truly hurting, remains to be seen.

As a reminder, Beijing has set a target of doubling the size of its economy by 2020 compared vs 2010. Amid fears that the trade war will dent China’s formidable export industry, Beijing has maintained a loose monetary policy and introduced industrial policies meant to stimulate investment. And now, to telegraph to the market that its policies are finally gaining traction, it is hardly a surprise that most non-GDP econ data solidly beat expectations.

END

Trump gloats at the Chinese

(courtesy zerohedge)

Trump Slams Faltering Chinese Economy, Declares US ‘Winning’ Trade War

The leadership in Beijing probably wasn’t too disappointed with the country’s slowest in nearly 30 years 6.2% annualized GDP print published early Monday morning local time, after all, in keeping with China’s “no surprises” mandate on economic data – every number is goalseeked to perfection to match the consensus, even if the Q2 number was slightly lower than Q1.

But with stocks at record highs, allowing Trump the upper hand in the interminable trade war, it appears the president couldn’t resist a few minutes to gloat.

As Trump has long claimed, thousands of companies are leaving China for other non tariffed countries (though, the rest of China’s economic data wasn’t nearly so downbeat as the GDP number, which suggests that, once again this is merely more Trump showmanship).

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

China’s 2nd Quarter growth is the slowest it has been in more than 27 years. The United States Tariffs are having a major effect on companies wanting to leave China for non-tariffed countries. Thousands of companies are leaving. This is why China wants to make a deal….

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

….with the U.S., and wishes it had not broken the original deal in the first place. In the meantime, we are receiving Billions of Dollars in Tariffs from China, with possibly much more to come. These Tariffs are paid for by China devaluing & pumping, not by the U.S. taxpayer!

China “wishes it hadn’t broken the original deal in the first place,” Trump says. But the US has plenty of time to hold out for better terms, since money is pouring into the coffers of our Treasury – taxes paid by American importers, but we magine Trump will continue to pretend our adversaries in China are footing the bill.

END

Now Huawei is planning “extensive” USA layoffs

*courtesy zerohedge)

Huawei Planning “Extensive” US Layoffs

Huawei Technologies Co. is expected to slash hundreds of jobs at a US-based R&D subsidiary, according to the Wall Street Journal.

The ‘extensive’ layoffs will affect workers at Futurewei Technologies, which employes around 850 people at labs across the country, including California, Texas and Washington State.

The exact number of layoffs couldn’t be determined, but one of the people said they were expected to be in the hundreds. Some of Huawei’s Chinese employees in the U.S. were being given the option of returning home and staying with the company, another person said. –Wall Street Journal

 

Following the May 16 decision by the Commerce Department to place Huawei on its so-called ‘entity list,’ which blocks companies from supplying US-sourced technology to Huawei without a license, Futurewei employees have faced difficulties communicating with their China-based colleagues. The company employs over 180,000 people worldwide.

Huawei has been virtually unable to buy critical US components and software for its telecommunications products – including smartphones and cellular base stations which are sold worldwide. Last year alone the company bought $11 billion worth of US tech. It is the largest maker of telecommunications equipment in the world, and the #2 vendor of smartphones – ahead of Apple but behind Samsung.

Analysts say the entity listing poses the most serious threat to Huawei given its reliance on American chips and other technology. Huawei founder Ren Zhengfei said last month that the measure would cost Huawei $30 billion in lost revenue this year and next. And the company’s international smartphone sales fell 40% in the month after the blacklisting was announced, though the decline has since moderated. Huawei had more than $100 billion in revenue last year, according to its annual report. –Wall Street Journal

Under the Commerce Department’s entity listing, “any unlicensed transfer of any technology of any sort by anyone from the U.S. to Huawei is prohibited” according to Obama-era Commerce Department official Kevin Wolf.

Meanwhile, Huawei is also battling a pair of US indictments on charges related to the theft of Intellectual Property (IP) as well as violations of US sanctions on Iran.

That said, while US officials have been lobbying global allies to similarly blacklist Huawei, it appears that the Trump administration may relax some of the restrictions in order to move trade negotiations forward with Beijing.

A reprieve for Huawei appeared to be in sight after President Trump said at the Group of 20 summit at Osaka, Japan, last month that he would allow some tech exports to the company to resume. Beijing sees an easing of restrictions on Huawei as a precondition for any trade deal with Washington.

On Tuesday, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said the U.S. would begin granting export licenses to Huawei suppliers whose sales to the Chinese company don’t put national security at risk. Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin has been urging U.S. suppliers to apply for licenses. –Wall Street Journal

The United States claims that Huawei and its widely used technologies could easily be used by the Chinese government for espionage. The company has pushed back on the claim, insisting that it is an independent company with no government ties.

Last week, journalist and Asia expert Isaac Stone Fish wrote in Washington Post Op-Ed hat more than one Huawei executive have direct ties to the People’s Liberation Army (PLA).

Huawei writes on its website. “Ren joined the People’s Liberation Army Engineering Corps in 1974 and retired nine years later in 1983.” It omits Huawei’s many other links to the PLA, such as how the company built the PLA’s first nationwide communications network in the late 1990s.

Consider chief legal officer Song Liuping, who has emerged as the defender of Huawei’s innocence in both the U.S. legal system … a search in Chinese-language media reveals that Song received his bachelor’s, master’s and PhD from the People’s Liberation Army National University of Defense Science and Technology.

Song is not the only top official with undisclosed ties to the PLA. Huawei’s website lists the company’s chairman, Liang Hua, as having received his doctorate from the school now known as the Wuhan University of Technology. Liang received his bachelor’s and master’s from the Chinese military research institute the Northwestern Polytechnical University (NPU)according to an article on that university’s website. That website also shows that Yu Chengdong, the chief executive of one of Huawei’s three business units, Huawei Consumer BG, received his bachelor’s from NPU…

imagine the outcry if Google’s Eric Schmidt had received his bachelor’s from West Point but hid that in his bio, or if Google declined to admit that it had ever worked with the Pentagon? –WaPo

Huawei has also fended off claims that the Chinese government has a financial interest in the company. In April, a report from Fullbright University Vietnam and George Washington Law School titled “Who Owns Huawei” suggests “Regardless of who, in a practical sense, owns and controls Huawei, it is clear that the employees do not.”

In response, Huawei held a press conference in which Chief Secretary of the Board of Directors, Jiang Xisheng, said “Most of what the US government says is not true,” adding “Regarding this point, we have responded many times. Though it is not under my charge, one thing is for sure – there is no government capital in Huawei.”

end

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

Deutsche bank/Germany

Deutsche bank is lowering the severance payments for workers who were fired last Monday.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Deutsche Cuts Severance Payments For Workers Who Were Fired On Monday

Deutsche Bank fired thousands of employees on Monday during the first round of job cuts for CEO Christian Sewing’s dramatic “restructuring” plan that calls for a 20% reduction in the bank’s workforce (the elimination of about 18,000 jobs) over the coming years.

Despite the booming economy in the US, observers have pointed out that the laid off DB bankers are facing a tough employment environment in a financial services industry that is contracting. Many will need to shift to entirely new lines of work, something that could require additional job training or – gasp – a return to school.

And as if bouncing back from being laid off isn’t hard enough, those who were laid off on Monday, a group that includes some 200 bankers from DB equities business in London, are taking home less money via their ‘redundancy’ packages than the bank has doled out in the past.

DB

Financial News reports that those who were let go during the first wave of layoffs have received a smaller severance package than DB has historically paid out, according to recruiters and those impacted by the layoffs. Traditionally, DB has paid out a lump sum that amounts to one month’s salary for every year of service at the bank.

But employees who were let go on Monday received a one-time payment equivalent to 10% of their salary, along with one week’s salary for every year of service.

Though it might seem generous to non-bankers, in London, one month’s salary for each year of service is standard for investment banking.

“One month’s salary for every year of service is usual for investment banks,” said Philip Landau, founder of Landau Law Solicitors, which advises City executives on employment issues. “This is bog standard, but it varies and investment banks have historically been a lot more generous.”

Some lower-level employees were offered hardly anything, or nothing at all, for their severance. And of course, the rollbacks in the bank’s severance packages haven’t applied to the golden parachutes doled out to departing executives.  Former CEO John Cryan, who left the bank in May 2018, received €10.8 million, former COO Kim Hammonds was given €4.86 million when he left the same month, and Marcus Schenck, former co-head of Deutsche’s corporate and investment bank, received €1.95 million when he left.

Here’s how much the average DB VP can expect to earn on their way out the door.

Deutsche paid its vice-presidents in investment banking an average of £160,000 last year, according to data from pay benchmarking website Emolument, and £350,000 for those in director-level roles.

Based on these figures, a vice-president who has worked at Deutsche for three years, and who was handed a maximum 10% of salary payment, would have received a total redundancy package worth around £67,000, before taxes, in the latest round.

DB has yet to break out the number of employees it will fire by business line. But FN confimed that at least 200 equities sales and trading staff in the City lost their jobs on Monday, along with a handful of people from the equity capital markets team.

Of course, it makes sense that Sewing sees these ‘redundancy packages’ as a logical place to start cutting, what with the employees now being ‘redundant’ and all. But with such a piddling severance, former DB bankers will need to dramatically scale back their lifestyles. In the US, that might mean cancelling a few weekend trips to the Hamptons, or possibly enrolling one’s children in public school.

end
Saturday:  FRANCE/PARIS
Over 700 new migrant protesters:  “black vests” occupy the Paris Pantheon. They want citizenship
(zerohedge)

Over 700 ‘Black Vest’ Migrants Occupy Paris Pantheon Demanding Citizenship

Approximately 700 ‘Black Vest’ protesters filled the Pantheon in central Paris on Friday to demand that they be granted citizenship, according to France 24.

The so-called “Black Vests” is a Paris-based migrant association that takes its name from the “Yellow Vests” anti-government protest movement.

As they went inside, tourists were evacuated from the Pantheon, which is the final resting place of France‘s greatest non-military luminaries including the writers Voltaire, Victor Hugo and Emile Zola. –France 24

View image on TwitterView image on TwitterView image on TwitterView image on Twitter

Belal Awad|بلال عواد@Baloo1987

The undocumented migrant movement the have just occupied the Pantheon in Paris, demanding to see the Prime Minister. They have a list of demands, among them, the right to live & work.

Their chosen spot? Beneath a statue representing France reading: “live free or die”

Black vests, black vests,” changed the group – alternating with “What do we want? Papers!

Embedded video

Groupe Ayanarchiste Alhambrakamura@AlhambraGrAn

Envahissement du Panthéon par les Gilets Noirs.
Papiers et liberté !!!

Embedded video

Benoit🔻📸🏳️‍🌈@deverly_b

The Black Vests demanded “papers and housing for everyone” in a statement, which describes their organization as “the undocumented, the voiceless and the faceless of the French Republic.”

“We don’t want to negotiate with the interior minister and his officials any more, we want to talk to Prime Minister Édouard Philippe now!” the group added.

“The Pantheon is a symbol of great men. Inside there are symbols representing the fight against slavery. We are fighting against modern-day slavery,” said French rights activist Laurent of Droits Devant. “Many people have been living without rights for years. We have done this to ask the prime minister for an exceptional regularisation. There has never been such a thing since [François] Mitterand took power” in 1981.

After several hours, the group eventually left when authorities escorted them out through a back entrance mid-afternoon, according to AFP. “All of the people who gained entry to the Pantheon have been evacuated,” tweeted Philippe.

In total, 37 protesters were arrested. On Saturday, several Black Vests showed up outside of a Paris police station to “demand the immediate release of our comrades! Long live the # Black Gilets !”

Embedded video

La Chapelle Debout !@chapelledebout

Devant le commissariat du 5e

On est toujours là et on exige la libération immédiate de nos camarades !

Vive les !

 

They stayed there for several hours until they were calmly evacuated through a back entrance mid-afternoon, AFP correspondents said.

,” Philippe tweeted early evening as a police source said 37 arrests had been made. –France 24

Conservative lawmaker Marine Le Pen, leader of the right-wing National Rally, tweeted in disgust.

“It is UNACCEPTABLE to see protesting illegal aliens occupy, with wholesale impunity, this is the centre of the Republic,” adding “Expulsion should be the immigrants’ future — that is the LAW.

Marine Le Pen

@MLP_officiel

Il est INADMISSIBLE de voir des clandestins revendicatifs occuper, en toute impunité, ce haut lieu de la République qu’est le .

En France, le seul avenir d’un clandestin devrait être l’expulsion, car c’est la LOI. MLP pic.twitter.com/K73EuAxZiD

In June the Black Vests made headlines after briefly occupying the headquarters of Paris-based catering company Elior Group. A month prior, the group occupied a terminal at Charles De Gaulle airport to protest “Air France’s collaboration” in the deportation of illegal immigrants, per France24.

end

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

TURKEY

Important: Erdogan set to lower interest rates into single digits (from 24%) which will send the Lira tumbling and create a banking crisis in Turkey.  Trump is also ready to roll out sanctions on Turkey for the S 400 purchases,

(zero hedge)

Turkey’s Erdogan Vows To “Significantly” Cut Rates As Trump Set To Roll Out Sanctions Over S-400 Purchase

Lately not a week passes without some dismal news involving Turkey hitting the tape, and yet the lira continues to levitate, blissfully ignorant of the storm clouds headed for Ankara, levitating on hopes the Fed will cut rates and sprinkle golden showers on emerging markets. However, in light of the two latest developments, the Mrs Watanabe sellers of USDTRY may finally pay attention.

On Sunday, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan – who last weekend fired the head of the central bank for not cutting rates fast enough, and who has now become the de facto head of the CBRT – promised “significantly lower interest rates by the end of the year“, Bloomberg reported.

“We aim to reduce inflation to one digit by the end of this year,” Erdogan told journalists in Istanbul, according to the state-run Anadolu news agency. “As we achieve this, we will achieve our year-end interest rate target as well.” Of course, should interest rates drop to one digit, the USDTRY will promptly collapse to two, as the rate differential between the lira and the dollar collapses, removing the main incentive to go long the lira at a time when the Turkish economy remains in crisis.

Having founded the economic school of Erdoganomics, according to which inflation can be achieved only by lowering rates, the Turkish president and his US counterpart have quickly become kindered spirits when it comes to monetary policy. And just as Trump heaps pressure and insults on Fed Chair Powell, Erdogan has frequently accused the central bank of keeping borrowing costs too high. Last month, he complained that while the Fed was moving toward a rate cut, Turkey’s policy rate of 24% “is unacceptable.”

 

Then, the last trace of any pretense that Turkey under Erdogan will forever be a banana republic came on July 6, when Erdogan unexpectedly dismissed the former central bank head, Murat Cetinkaya and made it clear that he expects his replacement as central bank governor to follow the government’s line on monetary policy. Cetinkaya had held rates steady for more than nine months.

Meanwhile, even as Trump and Erdo may be BFFs when it comes to firing head of central banks, the US president and his advisors have reportedly settled on a sanctions package to punish Turkey for receiving parts of a Russian S-400 missile defense system and plans to announce it in the coming days, Bloomberg wrote in a separate report.

News of the imminent sanctions was somewhat unexpectedly considering that when Trump and Erdogan met at the G-20 summit in Japan in June, the U.S. president suggested possible leniency on sanctions. He sought to blame the Obama administration for Turkey’s decision to buy the Russian equipment, saying the impasse is “not really Erdogan’s fault.”

According to Bloomberg, the administration “chose one of three sets of actions devised to inflict varying degrees of pain under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act, the people said, without identifying which set had been chosen. The plan needs Trump’s approval.”

 

Russian Il-76, carrying the first batch of equipment of S-400 missile defense system, arrives at Murted Air Base in Ankara, Turkey on July 12, 2019.

Trump is said to unveil the sanctions late next week, and – in an unexpected act of courtesy to Ankara – intends to wait until after Monday’s anniversary of a 2016 coup attempt against Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to avoid fueling further speculation that the U.S. was responsible for the uprising. And while we don’t know the details of the prepared sanctions, we know the following:

The plan was developed after days of discussions between officials at the State and Defense departments and the National Security Council. It awaits a sign-off by Trump and his top advisers, the people said, requesting anonymity to discuss a sensitive matter. A State Department spokeswoman declined to comment.

While not nearly as bad as that with other non-Saudi middle-eastern nations, the relationship between the U.S. and Turkey has deteriorated over the course of the civil war in Syria, where U.S. backing for Kurdish militants frustrated Turkey, which considers the group an extension of the separatists it’s fighting at home. Erdogan has also criticized the US for not extraditing Gulen, whom he accuses of masterminding the fake attempted “coup” the served as the launchpad for Erdogan’s transformation to an “executive president” last year, read quasi dictator.

Acting U.S. Defense Secretary Mark Esper said Friday that Washington’s position that Turkey can’t have both the F-35 and the Russian missile system “has not changed.” Esper spoke with Defense Minister Hulusi Akar in the afternoon, and the Turkish government said in a statement that a U.S. delegation would visit next week to keep discussing the issue.

END
A good commentary from Margolis as Turkey is set to call Trump’s bluff
(courtesy Eric Margolis)

Margolis: Turkey Calls Trump’s Bluff

Authored by Eric Margolis via EricMargolis.com

Turkey has just called Donald Trump’s bluff by going ahead with the purchase of Russian S-400 anti-aircraft missiles. The outrage in Washington is volcanic. Trump is vowing to rain fire and brimstone sanctions down on the disobedient Turks.

The S-400 is Russia’s premier anti-air missile. It is believed highly effective against all forms of aircraft – including stealth planes – cruise missiles, medium range ballistic missiles, drones, and some other types of missiles. It offers the choice of a self-directing version with its own radar seeker, or a less expensive, “semi-active” version that is guided by its launch-battery radar.

 

Russian military plane unloading first batch of S-400 components near Ankara. Image source: Turkish Defense Ministry via AP

What makes this AA missile (SS-21 in NATO terminology) particularly deadly is its remarkable 400 km range. The S-400 is said by Russia to be able to unmask stealth aircraft. I’ve been told by Soviet security officials as far back as 1990 that their radars could detect US stealth aircraft.

The missile’s remarkable range and detection capability puts at risk some of the key elements of US war fighting capability, notably the E-3 AWACS airborne radar aircraft, US electronic warfare aircraft, tankers and, of course, fighters like the new stealth F-35, improved F-15’s, F-22’s and B-1, B-2 and venerable B-52 heavy bombers used to carry long-ranged cruise missiles.

The Russian AA system can “shoot and scoot” – firing and then quickly moving. Even more important, the S-400 system costs about half the price of its leading competitor, the US Patriot PAC-2 system. The S-400 may also be more reliable and accurate. The Great White Father in Washington is not happy.

The Trump administration brought heavy pressure on Turkey not to buy the S-400, threatening to cancel Turkey’s order for 100 of the new, stealthy F-35’s. Few thought the Turks would defy the US on this issue, but they failed to understand the depths of Turkey’s anger at the US.

Most Turks believe that the US engineered the failed 2016 coup against the democratic government in Ankara working through a shadowy religious organization run by the spiritual-political leader, Fethullah Gulen, who lives in exile in the United States. Turkey’s elected president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, had been too independent-minded for Washington, clashing over US policy to Syria and the Gulf. He had also incurred the wrath of America’s Israel lobby for demanding justice for the Palestinians.

Turkey is now under economic attack by Washington. President Trump is threatening sanctions (read economic warfare) against Turkey, an old, loyal US ally. During the Korean War, Turkish troops saved American soldiers from Chinese encirclement. But Turks are mostly Muslim, and Muslims are hated by Trump and his allies.

S-400 missiles are now arriving in Turkey. What will Trump do? Cancel sale to Turkey of the F-35 and other military equipment or spare parts. Threaten to oust Turkey from NATO. Get Israel and Greece to menace Turkey.

Turkey can live without the F-35. It’s too expensive and may be more vulnerable than advertised. The Turks can get similar, less expensive warplanes from Russia. India and China are both buying the S-400. Even the Saudis may join them though Moscow is delaying the sale. S-400’s are also stationed in Syria with Russian forces and are slated to go to sea in a naval version.

If the US reacts with even more anger, Turkey could threaten to withdraw from NATO and kick the US out of its highly strategic air base in southeast Turkey at Incirlik. It’s worth recalling that Turkey provided NATO’s second largest army after the US. Someone has to remind the deeply unknowing Trump that NATO without Turkey will be declawed. Equally important, that a Turkey unconstrained by NATO membership, will seek sources of oil which it lacks and desperately needs, and new alliances.

Only a century ago, Iraq’s rich oil fields used to be part of the Ottoman Empire until taken away by the British and French imperial powers. The days of a subservient, tame Turkey may be ending.

END
TURKEY/CYPRUS/EU/ISRAEL
The following was largely expected:  The EU as agreed to sanction Turkey for drilling in Cypriot waters. I have been bringing this to your attention on a daily basis.  For newcomers, Israel discovered a huge natural gas find off the coast of Haifa, several years ago and they found it was heading onto Cyprus, Lebanon and Greek waters. They dutifully informed the leaders of these nations of the find. Theproblem is Turkey does not recognize the division of the country by way of an armistice in 1974 with the north government by Cypriot Turks and the southern half which includes the capital Nicosia is controlled by the Greek Cypriots.  Now that there is a big discovery Turkey wants it and they have interfered with drilling and intercepting ships.
(zerohedge)

EU Agrees To Sanction Turkey For Drilling In Cypriot Waters

A surprisingly muscular response beyond mere threatening rhetoric out of the European Union over Turkey’s violations of Cypriot territorial waters related to offshore drilling operationsthe EU has agreed to bring financial and political sanctions against Turkey after repeat warnings of the past weeks.

European Union officials on Monday agreed political and financial sanctions against Turkey after Ankara went ahead with drilling operations off Cyprus despite repeated warnings, European diplomats said. — AFP

“The conclusions on Turkey have been adopted and they will be made public in the coming hours,” the EU’s foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini told reporters following a meeting of foreign ministers.

 

AP photo: July 9, 2019 file photo, a Turkish Navy warship patrols near Turkey’s drilling ship ‘ Fatih ‘ that is making its way towards the eastern Mediterranean near Cyprus.

Austrian Federal Minister for Europe, Integration and Foreign Affairs Alexander Schallenberg also announced prior to Mogherini’s remarks Monday from Brussels:

“Today, we will adopt a number of measures against Turkey — less money, fewer loans through the European Investment Bank, freeze of aviation agreement talks. Naturally, other sanctions are possible.”

“We [the] are fully behind Cyprus,” Schallenberg added while addressing the crisis, which has involved Turkey laying claim to a waters extending a whopping 200 miles from EU member Cyrprus’ coast, brazenly asserting ownership over a swathe of the Mediterranean that even cuts into Greece’s exclusive economic zone.

Last week the Turkish drilling vessel Yavuz sailed to an area off Cyprus’ east coast — the second to follow a first drilling vessel, Fatih, which had already been exploring in Cypriot waters. Notably, the vessels have been accompanied by the Turkish military, including drones, F-16 fighters, and warships.

Cyprus has long condemned Turkey’s aggressive oil and gas explorations as a “second invasion” in reference to the creation in 1974 of the breakaway Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus after a military takeover.

 

Source: Stratfor

The AFP reports the following after the EU ministers’ meeting and announcement of impending sanctions:

The details are not due to be published until 10:00 pm (2000 GMT), but the most serious measure is understood to be a cut of 145.8 million euros ($164 million) in the European funds allocated to Turkey for 2020.

The European Investment Bank has been asked to revisit the conditions set out for providing financial support to Ankara, according to several European sources.

The EU is also expected to downgrade its dialogue with Turkey, without cutting it off completely.

Turkey’s actions and expansive claims inside Cyprus’ exclusive economic zone have been condemned by the US, European Union, and Egypt, with NATO officials recently signalling to Turkey that it was out of line.

Ankara has not only confirmed the drilling operations but has positively boasted about its oil and gas expansion in the eastern Mediterranean. The only compromise it’s offered, even while sending warships and military planes to “protect” its drilling vessels, has been to offer dialogue over a “cooperation” proposal between the Turkish-held part of the island and internationally recognized Cyprus.

Should the Turkish military attempt to enforce its drilling claims and run up against Cypriot and Greek vessels, it could spark a deadly encounter which would force the EU and NATO to finally weigh in more forcefully.

 end
IRAN/UK
Iran tells the UK that they will continue to export oil under any conditions.  They released the crew of that detained tanker
(courtesy zerohedge)

Iran To UK: We’ll Continue Oil Exports “Under Any Conditions” As Detained Tanker Crew Released

As the “tanker wars” continue Iran’s Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif warned his British counterpart Jeremy Hunt in a telephone call on Saturday that Iran plans to continue its oil exports “under any conditions”.

Zarif also repeated Iranian demands for the UK to release the Grace 1 oil tanker, seized over a week ago after it was boarded by Royal Marines off Gibraltar. It had been carrying 2 million barrels of Iranian oil and was alleged to have been bound for Syria, in violation of EU sanctions; however, Tehran has accused the UK of fundamentally doing the United States’ bidding.

In a public statement posted to Twitter, Hunt informed Zarif that the UK would release the tanker if it received guarantees it would not go to Syria.

 

Iran tanker file photo, via Middle East Monitor

On Saturday the four-member crew of the detained tanker had been released, which could serve to ease tensions, according to the WSJ.

They were being interviewed and questioned as to the nature of the voyage, and whether they intended to violate EU sanctions on Syria — which it appears they were given the ship had gone all the way around the south of Africa from the gulf instead of the usual route of the Suez canal, something which had raised suspicions.

Meanwhile France’s foreign minister said over the weekend that Iran’s decisions to breach caps on uranium enrichment was “a bad reaction to … (a) bad decision,” according to Reuters, and said the region is stumbling dangerously into war.

“The situation is serious. The rise of tensions could lead to accidents,” French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian told reporters.

Iran has recently issued a 60-day window for France and other EU nations to salvage the deal, saying it will blow through another uranium enrichment ceiling by early September is nothing is done to both rescue the deal and ease US-led sanctions.

END

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

Worldwide semiconductor equipment sales collapse in 2019

(zerohedge)

Worldwide Semiconductor Equipment Sales Collapse In 2019, No Bottom Until 1Q20?

SEMI trade group, whose 2,000 semiconductor manufacturers including Applied Materials of the U.S. and Japan-based Tokyo Electron, published a chilling note this week that warned spending on chipmaking equipment in 2019 would collapse as concern about a global trade recession, fueled by a deepening trade war, could be immient.

Semiconductors are closely observed because they sometimes serve as a lead on global macro.

The industry trade group said sales are expected to drop 18% this year to $52.7 billion, the first decline in over four years; the trade group initially projected an 8% decline to $59.6 billion.

The industrial slowdown reflects uncertainty among major chipmakers that buy fab equipment.

 

Demand for smartphones and data servers fueled the industry in the last four years – but demand has recently dropped as memory chip prices decline.

With a global synchronized decline gaining momentum, investment in chip-heavy data centers is one of the biggest drags on the industry. Capital spending by Apple, Google, and IBM declined YoY in 1Q19, U.S.-based Synergy Research Group says.

SEMI cited the out of control trade war and sanctions against Huawei Technologies, the third largest semiconductor company in the world, as the leading cause of a downturn in the industry.

The group predicts fab equipment spending will fall in every market except Taiwan and North America. The steepest declines will be in South Korea and other APAC countries.

In a separate report, Teddy Vallee, CIO of Pervalle Global, indicates that despite Wall Street forecasting a 2H19 rebound, the semiconductor industry will continue to weaken through 1Q20.

“Our leads still have semi sales continuing lower into years end/Q12020. The most recent coincident data confirms this, as semi exports from South Korea for the first ten days of July fell by 25%. This was with an extra selling day vs. the prior year as well.”

With that being said, it seems that iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) is headed for a retest of the 170 range in 2H.

END
SWEDEN
A good look at why Sweden is at war and this is all due to the immigration of Muslims into the country
(COURTESY BERGMAN/GATESTONE)

“Sweden Is At War”

Authored by Judith Bergman via The Gatestone Institute,

  • In 2017, a Swedish police report, “Utsatta områden 2017” (“Vulnerable Areas 2017”) showed that there are 61 such areas — also known as no-go zones — in Sweden. They encompass 200 criminal networks, consisting of an estimated 5,000 criminals.Most of the inhabitants are non-Western immigrants and their descendants.
  • In March, the Swedish National Forensic Centre estimated that since 2012, the number of shootings classified as murder or attempted murder had increased by almost 100 percent.
  • Sweden is at war and it is the politicians who are responsible. Five nights in a row, cars have been set on fire in the university town of Lund. Such insane acts have occurred on hundreds of occasions in various places in Sweden over the past fifteen years. From 1955 to 1985, not a single car was ignited in Malmö, Gothenburg, Stockholm or Lund…. None of these criminals is starving or lacking in access to clean water. They have a roof over their heads and they have been offered free schooling…. They do not live in dilapidated houses…. It is called upbringing and this is missing for thousands of girls and boys in Swedish homes today.” — Björn Ranelid, Swedish author, Expressen, July 5, 2019.
  • “Very few things were better in Sweden [before]…. We have built a strong country, where we take care of each other. Where society takes responsibility and no man is left alone”. — Swedish Prime Minister Stefan Löfven.
  • Sadly, many Swedes probably feel terribly left alone in a country that increasingly resembles a war zone.

In 2018, Sweden experienced a record number of lethal shootings, 306 in all. Forty-five people were killed and 135 injured nationwide, most deaths occurring in Region South, where Malmö is located. In March, the Swedish National Forensic Centre estimated that since 2012, the number of shootings classified as murder or attempted murder has increased by almost 100 percent. The Centre also found that the most popular weapon used in the shootings is the Kalashnikov assault rifle. “It is one of the world’s most manufactured weapons and used in many wars,” said the Centre’s team manager, Mikael Högfors. “When they are no longer needed… they are smuggled into Sweden”.

In the first six months of 2018, according to the police, almost every other shooting took place in a “vulnerable area”, also known as no-go zones. In 2017, a Swedish police report, “Utsatta områden 2017” (“Vulnerable Areas 2017”) disclosed that there are 61 such areas in Sweden. They encompass 200 criminal networks, consisting of an estimated 5,000 criminals. Most of the inhabitants are non-Western immigrants and their descendants.

The police wrote in the 2017 report that global ethnic conflicts are replicated in the vulnerable areas:

“… the [Swedish] judiciary and the rest of [Swedish] society do not understand these conflicts or have answers to how they can be solved. The police therefore need to have a better knowledge of the world and understanding of events in order to interpret what is happening in the areas. The presence of returnees, sympathizers for terrorist groups such as the Islamic State, al Qaeda and al-Shabaab, and representatives of Salafist-oriented mosques, contribute to tensions between these groups and other residents in the vulnerable areas. Since the summer of 2014, when a Caliphate was proclaimed in Syria and Iraq, sectarian contradictions have increased, especially between Sunnis, Shiites, Levantine Christians, and nationalists of Kurdish origin”. (p 13)

On June 3, the police released a new list revealing that there are now 60 such areas, instead of the previous 61. That does not mean, however, that much has improved. On the contrary.

In 2019, shootings still continue apace. In Malmö — a city of more than 300,000 inhabitants, one third of whom were “born abroad” according to the city’s statistics — a 25-year-old man was shot dead outside a social services office on June 10, while on the same day, at Malmö Central Station, police shot a man who said he had a bomb in his bag and was alleged to have behaved in a threatening way. That evening, two men were shot in the Lorensborg area of Malmö. Later that night, two explosions shook the city.

Because of the increased number of shootings, city employees are now apparently so uncomfortable about working in the city that the Malmö municipality has released guidelines on how municipal workers — especially those who work in home care, rehabilitation and short-term housing — can remain safe in the city as they go about their jobs.

Under the heading, “Personal safety – tips and advice on how to avoid getting into unwanted situations”, the municipality advises its employees to “Plan your itinerary – know your area…try to minimize the time from when you park your bike / car until you enter [the destination]”. Also, “Before leaving a building, look out first and make an assessment of the surroundings to avoid getting into an unwanted situation… keep away from people who are considered potentially threatening or dangerous and increase the distance if there are no other people nearby”.

One city employee, who received the guidelines, accused the municipality of hypocrisy: “To the media, the municipality says that everything is fine, even though it is not. Then they send this type of mail to their employees”.

The municipal government’s guidelines on safety seem appropriate for a civil war zone, such as Beirut once was, rather than for the once-peaceful city of Malmö.

Beirut also comes to mind in the Swedish city of Linköping, where in early June an explosion blasted through a residential building, until it looked as if it had been pounded in a war. Miraculously, no one was killed in the blast, but 20 people were injured. The police suspect that the incident was gang-related. A few weeks later, two men were shot in the Linköping district of Skäggetorp — on the police list of “vulnerable areas” or “no-go zones”.

After that, on June 30, in more gang related incidents, three shootings took place in three different suburbs in Stockholm. Two people, one of whom had been shot in the head, died. One of the murdered men, a rapper named Rozh Shamal, had earlier been convicted of assault, robbery and drug offenses, among other things. This year, just in Stockholm, eleven people have already been shot to death — the same number as for all of 2018. This year in Sweden, more than twenty peoplehave so far been shot to death.

“The development is unacceptable,” said the head of the police’s national operational department (Noa), Mats Löfving. “In many cases, military automatic weapons are used. We see a reduction in the number of those injured in firearm violence, but the number of killings does not go down”.

On July 1, National Police Chief Anders Thornberg said that the situation is “extraordinarily serious”. He claimed , however, that the police have not lost control of the gangs and that the main task is to stop the growth in the number of young criminals. “For every young man who gets shot, there are 10-15 new ones ready to step in,” he said. Only a few days later, however, he added that Swedes will have to get used to the shootings for the foreseeable future:

“We think this [the shootings and the extreme violence] might continue for five to ten years in the particularly vulnerable areas,” Thornberg said. “It is also about drugs. Drugs are established in society, and ordinary people buy them. There is a market that the gangs will continue to fight over”.

The leader of the opposition party Moderaterna, Ulf Kristersson, called the situation, “extreme for a country that is not at war”.

Bombed buildings and shootings are not all that is plaguing Sweden. In addition, cars are regularly set on fire. The small picturesque university town of Lund, close to Malmö, has recently been suffering from extensive car fires. The police have not yet identified the suspects. “We see an increase in car fires right now, it is clearly worrying”, said Patrik Isacsson, local police area manager in Lund. He noted that car fires usually increase during the summer months, but have also been increasing over the years. “We do not know yet who the perpetrators are, so I can only speculate, but this type of arson is usually set by young people. That it happens during summertime can be because young people are unemployed and out there a lot”.

“I definitely think that these are young people who have not found their place in society, who know they are not accepted,” commented a sociologist of law at Malmö University, Ingela Kolfjord, “that the climate has hardened and that they are constantly seen as ‘the other’. Car fires are not just a way of showing their displeasure but a way of showing that they are frustrated, desperate and angry.”

Swedish author Björn Ranelid disagreed. “Sweden is at war and it is the politicians who are responsible” he wrote in Expressen.

“Five nights in a row, cars have been set on fire in the university town of Lund. Such insane acts have occurred on hundreds of occasions in various places in Sweden over the past fifteen years. From 1955 to 1985, not a single car was torched in Malmö, Gothenburg, Stockholm or Lund. …When a female sociologist at Malmö University explains the crimes [as a consequence] of youths being frustrated… she speaks nonsense… She repeats things that could have been said by a parrot. None of these criminals is starving or lacking in access to clean water. They have a roof over their heads and they have been offered free schooling for nine or twelve years. They do not live in dilapidated houses. All of them… have had a higher material standard in their homes than several thousands of the children and young people who grew up at Ellstorp in Malmö where I lived with my parents and two siblings, in 47 square meters in two small rooms and a kitchen from 1949 to 1966”.

Ranelid concluded:

“It is called upbringing and this is missing for thousands of girls and boys in Swedish homes today. It’s not about money or where you happen to be born in the world. It has nothing to do with politics or ideology. It is about ethics, morality and co-existence between people”.

Car fires, frequent and widespread, are just one of the new aspects of living in the formerly idyllic city of Lund. In January, a so-called unaccompanied minor from Afghanistan, Sadeq Nadir, sought to murder several people in the city by ramming into them with a stolen car. Although he claimed to have converted to Christianity, material found in his apartment showed that he wanted to wage jihad and become a martyr. He told the police that his intention had been to kill. The event was initially classified as an attempt at a terrorist crime but then changed to a charge of ten attempted murders. Although Sadeq had admitted that his intention was to kill, the Swedish district court did not find that Sadeq could be convicted for either terrorism or attempted murder. The court argued that he had not been driving “fast enough” to cause a concrete risk of death. In the same vein, although Sadeq was found to have written texts about jihad and martyrdom and claimed to be acting for Allah, the court did not find that he had acted from any religious terrorist motives. He was convicted of merely causing danger to others and threatening them.

What is the Swedish government’s assessment of the violent and volatile situation? Swedish Prime Minister Stefan Löfven, condemned the recent shootings:

“We have tightened several penalties considerably, including the punishment for illegally possessing weapons and explosives such as hand grenades. We have also given the police increased powers for… camera surveillance and information collection”.

On July 2, the government presented proposals for combating gun violence, including harsher penalties for improper possession of explosive materials and new powers for customs officials to block packages suspected of containing weapons or explosives. According to the opposition, the proposals have come too late. “This could have been done a year ago, too. There have never been so many shootings in Sweden. I think it is obvious to most people that what the government has done is not enough”, said Johan Forssell from the opposition party, Moderaterna.

As late as June 6, on Sweden’s National Day, Prime Minister Stefan Löfven, while acknowledging that Sweden “still has serious societal problems” remarked, “Very few things were better in Sweden” before:

“But even though we can think of old times as an idyll with red cottages and green meadows, very few things were better before. During a national day celebration, I think we should celebrate just that, how much we have achieved as a country. We have built a strong country, where we take care of each other. Where society takes responsibility and no man is left alone”.

Sadly, many Swedes probably feel terribly left alone in a country that increasingly resembles a war zone.

END

7. OIL ISSUES

 

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings MONDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1276 UP .0009 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /GREEN 

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 107.89 UP 0.016 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2549   DOWN   0.0011  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/BREXIT EXTENDED TO OCT 31/2019//

USA/CAN 1.3033 UP .0013 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  MONDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE BY 9 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.1276 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 11.64 POINTS OR 0.40% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 83.26 POINTS OR 0.29%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0,63%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN 

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN EXCEPT GERMAN DAX 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 83.26 POINTS OR 0.29%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 11.64 POINTS OR 0.40%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN. 63% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 42.37  POINTS OR 0.20%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1416.00

silver:$15.32-

Early MONDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.12% !!! UP 0 IN POINTS from FRIDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 2.65 UP 0  IN BASIS POINTS from FRIDAY night.

USA dollar index early MONDAY morning: 96.81 UP 0 CENT(S) from  FRIDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers MONDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing MONDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.59% DOWN 7 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.11%  DOWN 5   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.51%//DOWN 6 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.65 DOWN 6 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 114 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES TO –.25% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.90% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR MONDAY

Closing currency crosses for MONDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1259  DOWN     .0008 or 8 basis points

USA/Japan: 107.89 UP .019 OR YEN UP 2  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2523 DOWN .0038 POUND DOWN 38  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 19 basis points to 1.3039

 

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The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 6.8778    0N SHORE  (DOWN)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.8744  (YUAN DOWN)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  5.8254 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.11%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 3 IN basis points from FRIDAY at 2.09 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.62 DOWN 3 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 96.96 UP 15  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for MONDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 25.71  0.34%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 64.02 POINTS OR .52%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 5.35 POINTS 0.10%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 30.40 POINTS or 0.33%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 4.65 POINTS OR 0.02%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 59.74 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 66.48 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   ROUBLE RISES:    62.66  THE CROSS LOWER BY 0.31 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBHIGHLOWER BY 31 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES  TO –.25 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  59.40//

 

 

BRENT :  66.13

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 2.09…   VERY DEADLY//

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.61..VERY DEADLY/

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.1257 ( DOWN 9   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:107.91 UP .036 (YEN DOWN 4 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 96.94 UP 13 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.2517 DOWN 44  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 5.7117

 

 

the Russian rouble 62.65   UP 0.33 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( UP 33 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3051 DOWN 31 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  6.8778  (ONSHORE)/we need to watch these levels/anything greater than 6.95 will be deadly./

 

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 6.8737 (OFFSHORE) we need to watch these levels/anything greater than 6.95 will be deadly/

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.23%

 

The Dow closed  UP 27,13 POINTS OR 0.10%

 

NASDAQ closed DOWN 6.22 POINTS OR 0.05%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  12.75 CLOSED UP .36

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.322%//libor dropping like a stone

 

 

 

 

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY//

Bonds, Bitcoin, & Bullion Bid As Small Cap Lag Reaches 10-Year High

There’s a dip…

Chinese stocks were broadly higher overnight led by a panic bid in tech-heavy ChiNext…

Because nothing says buy highly-levered growth stocks like record weakness in economic growth.

Infographic: China Posts Its Weakest Economic Growth In 27 Years | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

European stocks were higher today, ramping back from early weakness…

 

US markets were mixed once again with Nasdaq leading and Small Caps lagging considerably (Dow and S&P flatlined)…

NOTE – look at the close in S&P and Dow!!!

In fact, Small Caps continue to collapse relative to large caps sparking major concerns about the sustainability of this surge…

“Small caps are more sensitive to liquidity issues, both good and bad,” said Tom McClellan, publisher of the McClellan Market Report, in a recent research note.

“They are like the canaries in Great Britain’s coal mines during the 1800s, birds who were more sensitive to bad gases than the big burly coal miners.”

As MarketWatch notes, Small-cap underperformance is coming at a time when many feel the biggest headwind for the stock market and the economy is all the uncertainty surrounding the U.S.-China trade war, which should weigh on large-cap multinational companies more than small-cap companies that have more domestic exposure.

“The message here is that something is wrong with liquidity, and it is affecting the small-caps but not so much the big burly large-caps,” McClellan said.

“This ratio does not tell us what that ‘something’ is, only that there is a problem.”

Another chart suggesting liquidity is drying up is the relative weakness in high-yield corporate bonds:

 

Defensive stocks dominated market performance today…

 

VIX was higher on the day, despite stocks gains…

 

Treasury yields were lower across the curve with the long-end outperforming (after last week’s underperformance)…

 

The yield curve (3m10Y) stalled at zero and remains inverted…

 

The dollar bounced back from overnight weakness to end the day higher…

 

Despite TsySec Mnuchin’s fearmongery, cryptos were actually bid after he spoke (Bitcoin was up 3% on the day after testing $10k overnight)…

But are well down from Friday’s close after the weekend’s crypto carnage (Bitcoin down 10% from Friday)

 

Oil prices underperformed on the day while copper rallied…

 

WTI dropped back below $60 as Barry blew itself out…

 

Silver notably outperformed gold on the day…

 

Finally, there’s this…

And this…

It’s the upside-down…

end

 

i) Market trading/

 

MARKET TRADING/LATE MORNING

 

 

LATE AFTERNOON

 

ii)Market data/

Although the NY empire headline number printed better than expected, it still shows that industry continues to struggle..manufacturing employment expectations crash

(zerohedge)

Manufacturing Employment Expectations Crash Despite Empire Fed Survey Rebound

After June’s plunge in regional Fed business surveys, July’s Empire Fed headline printed a better-than-expected +4.3(exp +2.0) from -8.6 in June.

However, despite the pickup in the main index, details of the report show that the industry continues to struggle.

A gauge of current orders crept up, though more of the state’s factories said bookings were lower in July than higher.

And, both current and future expectations for employment tumbled, with the latter crashing to its weakest since January 2016…

Worse still, as Reuters Economist Jeoff Hall notes, the internals of the New York Fed Empire State Manufacturing Survey were less flattering than the headline. In fact, an ISM-like weighting of the components produced a PMI reading of 49.0 in July, up from 48.4 in June but still recessionary.

 

iii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

FRIDAY  NIGHT

Barry missed New Orleans but still flooding is possible

Slow-Moving Barry Threatens Louisiana Ports, Refineries, LNG Facilities

Authored by Janet McGurty at Platts

Tropical Storm Barry is expected to make landfall over the central Louisiana Coast Saturday, bringing the potential for extreme flooding, National Hurricane Center information showed Friday.

The NHC forecasts storm winds could reach hurricane strength when Barry reaches the Louisiana Coast. But the slow movement of Tropical Storm Barry will result in a long, heavy rainfall and flooding along the central Gulf Coast. The NHC has warned that extreme rain will flood the coastal regions south of Baton Rouge and New Orleans.

This could impact operations at regional refineries.

 

Phillips 66 Friday completed the “orderly shutdown” of its 294,700 b/d Alliance refinery in Belle Chasse, Louisiana, because of the mandatory evacuation of Plaquemines Parish. While crude and feedstock processing has ceased at the plant, Phillips 66 said utilities at the facility “remain active for restart facilities to begin as soon as it is safe to do so.”

Other regional refiners remain watchful, but are unlikely to shut down plants because they are not in the direct path of Barry.

“We continue to closely monitor the storm, follow [the] hurricane preparedness plan, as well as coordinate with appropriate local agencies,” Valero spokeswoman Lillian Riojas said.

Valero has two refineries in the New Orleans region — the 125,000 b/d Meraux plant and the 215,000 b/d Norco facility.

Chevron, ExxonMobil, and Shell said their USGC refineries were operating normally.

About 1.1 million b/d, or 59%, of oil production and 1.4 Bcf/d, or 49%, of natural gas output in the Gulf of Mexico remained shut-in as Tropical Storm Barry approached, the US Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement said Friday.

Port Impact

Shipping disruptions by US Gulf Coast port closures have supported European diesel and gasoline markets as market players there expect delays in getting product from the USGC, which pushed down refined product futures during morning US trading.

NYMEX August RBOB settled 1.25 cents lower at $1.9770/gal, while August ULSD finished 15 points higher at $1.9801/gal.

In the spot market, USGC USGC RBOB at 7.8 RVP traded at NYMEX RBOB plus 3.50 cents/gal on Friday morning, up from plus 2.25 cents/gal Thursday, a level not seen since early May.

Prices were being driven both by storm concerns as well as reports of work planned at Marathon’s Galveston, Texas, refinery.

A spokeswoman for the Louisiana Department of Environmental Quality said the Stolthaven terminal in New Orleans had shut down. The facility has 85 tanks.

The Port of New Orleans late Thursday was set at Port Condition Yankee, closing it to incoming traffic. However, along the more western Gulf Coast export facilities shipping restrictions were lifted and operations returned to normal as the USCG rescinded the Port Condition Whiskey in effect at the ports of Houston, Galveston, Freeport, and Texas City.

LNG Output

There are six US Gulf Coast liquefaction trains with total capacity of about 3.6 Bcf/d in operation at two terminals within range of potential impact from Tropical Storm Barry, based on the current track.

Based on feedgas flows, LNG production appeared to be continuing Friday at Cheniere Energy’s Sabine Pass terminal in Cameron Parish, Louisiana, and Sempra Energy’s Cameron LNG facility in Hackberry, Louisiana.

The biggest impact to the terminals in operation could come from vessel traffic restrictions along the intracoastal waterways that serve the terminals.

Sabine Pilots lifted a suspension on inbound tanker transits along the intracoastal waterway that serves the Sabine Pass terminal, and as of mid-afternoon Friday one tanker was in the inlet, while two more were positioned outside in the Gulf of Mexico, cFlow, Platts trade flow software, showed.

At Cameron LNG, however, the facility was not scheduled to receive any tankers to load for export for the duration of the storm, a spokeswoman said after Lake Charles pilots advised they would be temporarily suspending service along the intracoastal waterway that serves the Louisiana terminal.

Crude Impact

Mars was heard bid Friday morning at WTI cash plus $3.80/b and offered at plus $4.10/b. That’s up from Thursday’s assessment of Mars at WTI plus $3.60/b.

Chevron, Anadarko, and BP Wednesday started shutting US Gulf of Mexico production and evacuating staff from drilling and production platforms, while Shell evacuated nonessential staff, but continued with reduced production.

BSEE said 191 platforms and seven non-dynamically positioned rigs have been evacuated, and 11 dynamically positioned rigs have been moved off site.

Tropical Storm Barry could cut Gulf of Mexico crude production 230,000-320,000 b/d in July, according to S&P Global Platts Analytics estimates Friday.

Chevron shut production at its Big Foot, Blind Faith, Genesis, Petronius and Tahiti platforms but will continue production at the Jack St. Malo deepwater project. Chevron Pipe Line stopped receiving and delivering crude out of its Fourchon and Empire terminals

Anadarko shut production at its Constitution, Heidelberg, Holstein, and Marco Polo platforms in the central Gulf of Mexico and removed all staff from the facilities. The driller also removed nonessential staff from its eastern Gulf of Mexico facilities.

BP started removing staff and shutting production at BP-operated platforms “across the Gulf,” without giving further details. Sources said Thunder Horse, Atlantic, Mad Dog, and Na Kika were affected. Shell has slowed production at its Olympus project by 1,835 b/d and at its Mars project by 700 b/d. It also cut production at Appomattox.

Natural Gas

Natural gas cash prices in the Southeast and East Texas were mixed Friday, as Tropical Storm Barry has greatly reduced Gulf of Mexico gas production.

With the exception of Henry Hub, Florida Gas Zone 3, and Transco Zone 3, prices in the Southeast trended slightly down in Friday trading. Henry Hub was trading 1.1 cents higher at $2.487/MMBtu. Houston Ship Channel was trading 4.6 cents lower at $2.388/MMBtu and Carthage Hub was trading 7.5 cents lower at $2.30/MMBtu.

Barry’s impact has not only been felt in reduced production; demand forecasts also have been lowered as a result.

Power Interests

Meanwhile, in the electricity sector, the wholesale power price outlook for the central Gulf Coast area expected to feel the main brunt of the storm remained murky, as traders on the Intercontinental Exchange avoided posting bids or offers for most of Friday for the Midcontinent Independent System Operator’s Louisiana Hub.

But MISO forecast higher peakloads across its vast footprint Saturday, 106.7 GW, compared with 100.5 GW last Saturday and an average of 95.6 GW for every July Saturday since 2014. This may reflect greater heat outside of the MISO South region, and may mitigate lower Louisiana Hub prices that might be expected as the storm cuts service to customers in the region.

Entergy’s Louisiana utilities have assembled a team of 1,200 people to respond to the storm and restore service, and another 770 workers from neighboring Entergy utilities have been mobilized.

end

SATURDAY AFTERNOON

Bricks and mortar continue to burn and this has been accentuated by the 25% tariffs on many Chinese goods which will put any firms out of business.
(courtesy zerohedge)

Retail Apocalypse: 12,000 Stores Are Forecasted To Close This Year 

As the economy cycles down through summer, there is new, alarming data that shows retail store closings are accelerating.

Coresight Research says there have already been 20% more store closings announced in the first six months of 2019 than in all of 2018.

The research firm examined figures and retailers’ earnings reports, found that more than 7,000 are expected to close this year with many locations already shut down.

Bankrupted Payless ShoeSource closed its remaining stores last week, accounts for 37% of the closing this year.

Coresight estimates closures could hit at least 12,000 stores by the end of 4Q19. The firm already tracked 5,864 closings in 2018, which included all Toys R Us, Kmart and Sears.

The retail apocalypse reared its ugly head in 2017 when a record 8,139 store closures were reported.

In a separate reported, noted by USA Today, UBS said 25% tariffs on $250 billion worth of Chinese products could jeopardize $40 billion of retail sales and puts 12,000 stores at risk of closing.

“The market does not realize how much brick & mortar retail is incrementally struggling and how new 25% tariffs could force widespread store closures,” UBS analyst Jay Sole wrote in the May report. “We think the potential 25% tariffs on Chinese imports could accelerate pressure on these company’s profit margins to the point where major store closures become a real possibility.”

It’ll take several months for the new round of tariffs to filter through the economy, raise retail prices, force consumers to shop online or not at all, and then lead to a new wave of closings in 1H20. As for the economy, growth rates are indeed declining as an industrial slowdown is spread to other sectors.

Here is Coresight’s complete list of store closures so far for this year:

Payless ShoeSource2,589 (includes 248 Canada locations and 114 smaller-format stores in Shopko Hometown locations).

Gymboree/Crazy 8749

Dressbarn: 649. Here are the locations that closed in June and closing in July.

Charlotte Russe494; but the company’s new owner is opening new stores.

Shopko: 371

Charming Charlie261

LifeWay Christian Resources170

Topshop: All 11 U.S. stores

Henri Bendel: 23

E.L.F. Beauty: 22

Here are more announced closures that could roll into 2020:

Family DollarAs many as 390 stores

Fred’s: 442; the company said it would close another 129 stores with going-out-of-business sales beginning Friday.

Chico’s: 74, but 250 over the next three years.

GNC: 233

Gap: Roughly 230 in next two years

Walgreens: 195

Foot Locker: 165, total includes closings outside of the U.S.

Signet JewelersThe parent company of Kay, Zales and Jared said it would close another 150 stores.

Pier 1 Imports57, but up to 145 could close.

Ascena Retail: 120

Destination Maternity: 117

Sears72

Victoria’s Secret53

Vera Bradley: 50

Office Depot: 50

Kmart: 48

CVS: 46

Party City: 45

Sears Hometown and Outlet Stores: 45

The Children’s PlaceUp to 45

Z Gallerie: 44

DKNY: 41

Stage Stores: 40 to 60

Bed Bath & Beyond: 40

Abercrombie & Fitch: 40

Francesca’s: At least 30 stores

Build-A-Bear: Up to 30 over two years

Williams-Sonoma: 30

J.C. Penney27

Bath & Body Works24

Southeastern Grocers: 22

Saks Off 5th: 20

Lowe’s20

J. Crew: 20

Macy’s: 8

Nordstrom: 7

Target: 6

J.Crew: 5

Kohl’s: 4

Whole Foods: 1

Calvin Klein: 1

Pottery Barn: 1

end

SWAMP STORIES

Tom Luongo continues with his assessment as to what is going on behind the curtains with respect to Epstein

(courtesy Tom Luongo)

Is This Project Mayhem Or Project Epstein?

Authored by Tom Luongo,

Only Donald Trump knows…

From the moment I heard Jeffrey Epstein had been arrested I knew none of us had anything close to the real story. And, by the time this is over, I don’t think we’ll have anything close to the real story either.

 

That shouldn’t, however, keep us from picking through the bread crumbs and see where they lead us. I wrote previously that I thought this story would lead to Hillary Clinton. The MAGA crowd loved that.

Regardless of whether Hillary winds up being the target is irrelevant. What I wrote the other day I still feel is the most likely situation.

I was cautiously optimistic that Trump would turn the corner on his presidency now that Mueller, impeachment and the rest of it would lift from his shoulders. His foreign policy maneuvers didn’t fill me with much, if any, confirmation of this hope.

But domestically signs were there that he had stabilized the battlefield.

Epstein’s arrest tells me he’s now out for blood.

That was, frankly, my gut instinct talking when I wrote that. It fit the sequence of events and the changes we’ve seen in D.C. over the past four months since Attorney General William Barr shut down the Mueller investigation.

What was done to Trump went far beyond egregious. It went far beyond even lawlessness. It was an operation that spanned multiple governments, showed complete contempt not only for procedure but the people themselves.

It was, in short, a supremely arrogant attempted coup that expected to get away with it all because they always had in the past. It was also amateurish as hell.

The reason I’ve never believed any of the arguments that Trump is simply a bait and switch pitch man for the Deep State is because that description defies reality.

It doesn’t pass Occam’s Razor. The people Jeffrey Epstein represents hate Trump holding power because they have nothing of substance on him. Sure he’s bribed building contractors or paid off unions to get his buildings finished. Whatever.

No one other than the squeakiest of wheels would get upset over that. Everyone accepts that to do business in a corrupt world like New York you swim with some of it because that’s simply how things are done, like it or not.

But using fourteen-year-old girls as blackmail agents and prostitutes to run guns, drugs, topple governments and steal weapons research is another level of corruption. It’s orders of magnitude worse. And to Trump’s credit it seems like he’s never dabbled in that particular thing.

Because if he had, he would never have become President and the Deep State would have never organized a coup attempt against him.

Occam’s Razor, folks. They don’t have anything of substance on him. At best they’ve got a few pictures of him at an Epstein party and then he’s gone.

Watch a few minutes of this report by George Webb and tell me this doesn’t sound exactly like what we’ve been presented as evidence that Trump is one of Epstein’s perverts.

We know Trump helped a case against Epstein in 2009. We know that Trump threw Epstein out of Mar-a-Lago for hitting on a young girl. What we don’t know is left to our imagination to reinforce our view of Trump one way or the other.

For the past six days it has been wall to wall, “Epstein is a pervert. Trump went to a few parties. Acosta, Trump’s guy, let Epstein off.”

Now Acosta resigns as Secretary of Labor.

But Epstein is most definitely an asset. The breadcrumbs are everywhere for you to find. The last thing Acosta did before resigning was letting it be known that he thought Epstein was connected to intelligence.

“Is the Epstein case going to cause a problem [for confirmation hearings]?” Acosta had been asked. Acosta had explained, breezily, apparently, that back in the day he’d had just one meeting on the Epstein case. He’d cut the non-prosecution deal with one of Epstein’s attorneys because he had “been told” to back off, that Epstein was above his pay grade. “I was told Epstein ‘belonged to intelligence’ and to leave it alone,” he told his interviewers in the Trump transition, who evidently thought that was a sufficient answer and went ahead and hired Acosta. (The Labor Department had no comment when asked about this.)

And now he resigns because of the 2009 plea deal? Something doesn’t pass the sniff test here. This is the biggest revelation of the entire week.

It’s also easily inferred from simply looking at the magnitude of the crimes committed and the final deal that was signed.

The news comes at us so fast, just like in a good action movie, that sometimes we forget to step back and ask basic plot questions, like “If this guy is that connected why are we hearing about this now at all?”

“Why did the FBI kick in the door of his home?”

“Why is this even news?”

“Who ordered the judge to unseal the records from the previous case?”

Because if this is that big a cover-up – implicating everyone from the CIA, to the State Dept. and Dyncorp to the Israeli Mossad — none of this should be in the news.

No way would these people risk exposing Epstein to this level of scrutiny if they were just trying to run a ‘nuts and sluts’ operation on Trump to impeach him.

And all of those questions, again using Occam’s Razor, lead to one answer. Donald Trump.

I think Trump started this thing and is now going to watch it play out to the end. Acosta was chum, sent out to fall on his sword and keep the story moving quickly to make it look like Trump is in cahoots with Epstein.

This first act is to go all out in attacking Trump. The intense focus on the sex-trafficking, the ‘nuts and sluts’ angle, is your key to understanding the stakes here. This is Alinsky 101, accuse your target of that which you are guilty of and make it personal. Guilt by association to put Trump on the defensive.

But to do that they also have to hand over the Clintons. And this is what I was getting at the other day. Hillary is over-extended here. Trump knows the way to take her and the rest of them down is to get to them through Epstein.

And most importantly, notice how no one in D.C. is out in front of the cameras, clutching their pearls about how horrible it all is. That silence you don’t hear is fear. Chuck Schumer, who was all over the news in December/January when it looked like Mueller was going to get Trump impeached is now nowhere to be found.

Pelosi, as I mentioned the other day, is fighting an internal battle within her party and not joining the #MeToo chorus. The outrage is simmering. And the Swamp can’t contain this by hoping to sweep this under the rug.

Notice how Epstein asked for immunity the other day. But have you heard anything about it since? No.

What did they get from Harvey Weinstein? Remember him?

There comes a point where a line is crossed, morality is truly compromised and people look at themselves and ask, “Is this the world I want to live in? Is this what we’ve been reduced to?”

Act I is the outrage and the attempt to keep the focus on the pervie side of things. Keep people focused on their disgust circuit and, hopefully, off the man behind the curtain.

But, as I said on Fault Lineswe live in a post-Dorothy Oz where the curtain was pulled back and reveals the weird little man with the levers and we realize yes, this is what we’ve been reduced to.

And that’s when the anger starts and Act II begins.

end

Meet Epstein’s “madame”:  she is none other than Robert Maxwell’s daughter, Ghislaine Maxwell.

(zerohedge)

Meet The Madam: Epstein Arrest Casts Spotlight On Clinton-Linked Socialite

Following the arrest of pedophile financier Jeffrey Epstein last Saturday, many outlets have turned their attention to his longtime confiante, socialite heiress Ghislaine Maxwell – who has been accused by three women of procuring and training young girls to perform massage and sexual acts on the 66-year-old registered sex offender and his associates.

Maxwell, 57, comes from money. Her father was publisher Robert Maxwell – who himself faced accusations of being a Mossad double (and possibly triple) agent and a “bad character” who was “almost certainly financed by Russia,” according to the British Foreign Office. Robert Maxwell died in 1991 when he fell from his yacht, the Lady Ghislaine – however the circumstances surrounding his demise have been rife with speculation (including that it was a Mossad assassination – a theory which attorney and longtime Epstein associate Alan Dershowitz slammed in a 2003 op-ed).

It is unknown exactly how Epstein and Ghislaine Maxwell met – however they reportedly dated around 1992, shortly after her father’s death. After breaking up, they remained good friends. In 1995, Epstein renamed a now-defunct Palm Beach company “Ghislaine Corp,” which was dissolved in 1998 per the Wall Street Journal. In 2003, Epstein described Maxwell as his “best friend,” who was not on his payroll – yet “seems to organize much of his life.”

The Oxford-educated Maxwell, described by many as a man-eater (she flies her own helicopter and was recently seen dining with [Bill]Clinton at Nello’s on Madison Avenue), lives in her own townhouse a few blocks away. Epstein is frequently seen around town with a bevy of comely young women but there has been no boldfaced name to replace Maxwell. “You may read about Jeffrey in the social columns, but there is much more to him than that,” says Jeffrey T. Leeds of the private equity firm Leeds Weld & Co. –New York Magazine (2002)

Maxwell also attended Chelsea Clinton’s wedding – and has been linked to other prominent people such as Prince Andrew, Donald Trump and Alan Dershowitz.

Adam McKay

@GhostPanther

Here’s Ghislaine Maxwell, by many accounts Jeffrey Epstein’s “pimp” and “groomer of girls” at Chelsea Clinton’s wedding.

 

Prince Andrew, Ghislaine Maxwell and Virginia Roberts – who claims to have seen Bill Clinton on Epstein’s infamous island while she was being sex-trafficked. 

Accusations of recruiting underage girls

Maxwell was accused by alleged Epstein victim Virginia Roberts Giuffre of recruiting the then-15-year-old into sexual slavery while she was working at a towel girl at President Trump’s Mar-a-Lago club.

Giuffre asserts in her complaint that Maxwell, the sole defendant in the suit and the daughter of late publishing magnate Robert Maxwell, routinely recruited underaged girls for Epstein and was doing so when she approached the $9-an-hour locker room attendant at Mar-a-Lago in 1999 about giving massages to the wealthy investment banker.

According to court filings, Maxwell was said to have hired, supervised and fired household staff, while directing the visits of dozens of “massage therapists” to Epstein’s residence, according to the Journal.

In depositions taken in 2009 and 2010 as part of civil lawsuits against Mr. Epstein, household employees said Ms. Maxwell was a central figure in Mr. Epstein’s private life. Several said Ms. Maxwell hired, supervised, and fired household staff, while directing the visits of dozens of “massage therapists”—typically young women.

Juan Alessi, who said in one of the depositions that he served as the Palm Beach house manager from around 1992 through 2002, described a basket of sex toys in Ms. Maxwell’s bathroom closet. He said he would find them around when he cleaned up after visits from the young women. –WSJ

Maxwell was accused in a 2014 court filing of being a “co-conspirator in Epstein’s sexual abuse” and of taking “numerous sexually explicit pictures of underage girls involved in sexual activities,” which included Giuffre. Maxwell has called the claims “obvious lies.”

The accusations were made as early as 2009 in lawsuits covering conduct that allegedly occurred from the mid-1990s to the mid-2000s. Together with the federal indictment in New York against Mr. Epstein, the civil cases describe an enterprise centered on procuring and sexually exploiting young women, and intimidating them into silence.

One accuser in a 2017 lawsuit called Ms. Maxwell “the highest-ranking employee” of that alleged enterprise, a role in which she was said to have had managed Mr. Epstein’s household and his sex life. –WSJ

While Maxwell hasn’t been charged in connection with any of Epstein’s activities, however more information on their relationship is expected to be revealed in the coming weeks. Prior to Epstein’s arrest, a federal appeals court in New York ordered the unsealing of up to 2,000 pages of court documents from a 2017 lawsuit against Maxwell – a decision her attorney says they will challenge.

end

Epstein Safe Had ‘Piles Of Cash’, Diamonds And Expired Passport Claiming Saudi Residency

FBI agents who cracked open a safe in Jeffrey Epstein’s Manhattan mansion discovered “piles of cash,” dozens of diamonds and an expired passport from the 1980s that listed his residence as Saudi Arabia, according to the Daily Beast – which notes that it is unclear whether this is the same safe that contained nude or semi-nude photographs believed to be of underage girls.

It’s also a different safe than the one allegedly in an ‘off-limits’ room on his private island in the Caribbean.

Federal prosecutors revealed the findings during a Monday bail hearing, for which US District Judge Richard Berman said he would announce a ruling on Thursday. Some of Epstein’s accusers were present during the courtroom session to oppose his request for release on house arrest pending trial for sex-trafficking underage girls. Both federal prosecutors and a federal probation office have recommended against letting Epstein out on bail, suggesting that he is a flight risk who should remain detained.

Monday’s hearing follows a flurry of filings in which Epstein’s defense team and federal prosecutors dueled over whether the filthy-rich money manager would go on the lam if he was released.

The government argued that Epstein’s international connections and wealth—estimated at more than $500 million in a court document—meant it would be easy for him to get beyond the arm of the law.

Even if he didn’t turn fugitive, prosecutors argued, Epstein has a history of witness-tampering, including wiring $350,000 late last year to two alleged accomplices after the Miami Herald published its expose on his Florida plea deal. –Daily Beast

Epstein’s attorneys have offered up a bail package which would allow the registered sex-offender and self-admitted pedophile to hang out at his palacial 21,000 sqft, $77 million 1930s Manhattan mansion while wearing a GPS monitoring device. He would also install surveillance cameras inside and out and deregister his cars and aircraft if released on bail “in an amount set by the court after reviewing additional information regarding Mr. Epstein’s finances,” according to the Daily Mail.

Prosecutors say Epstein’s mansion “provides no value whatsoever” as collateral, “because the defendant would thus be likely to lose that property following a conviction.”

The government similarly noted that Epstein’s offer to put his Gulfstream jet up for collateral is bogus, as the financier “recently sold a second plane and thus presumably has cash on hand to replace the posted aircraft without difficulty if need be.”

The wealthy financier’s lawyers have also argued that he’s protected under the terms of a 2008 immunity deal, writing “In essence, the government seeks to remand a self-made New York native and lifelong American resident based on dated allegations for which he was already convicted and punished – conduct the relitigation of which is barred by a prior federal nonprosecution agreement.”

More than a decade ago, authorities in Florida investigated Epstein for the very same thing, but U.S. Attorney Alex Acosta signed off on a sweetheart deal that allowed him to plead guilty to a state prostitution charge. He served 13 months of an 18-month-sentence in jail, while being allowed to leave for several hours during the day on work release.

The Miami Herald investigation of that plea deal, along with lawsuits by accusers, helped amp up the pressure on Epstein, and the U.S. Attorney in Manhattan launched a new probe, which culminated in an indictment and arrest warrant earlier this month. –Daily Beast

Meanwhile, prosecutors have left the door open to a superseding indictment which could contain more charges – or add alleged accomplices as co-defendants, according to the Beast.

Although the indictment details alleged crimes against just three girls between 2002 and 2005, other accusers have come forward since Epstein’s arrest—in New York and New Mexico, where he owns a spread of land called the Zorro Ranch.

Epstein also owns a private island in the Caribbean and a lavish estate in Palm Beach, a fleet of cars and a private jet that has hosted former President Bill Clinton, actor Kevin SpaceyPrince Andrew, and lawyer Alan Dershowitz.

Two of Epstein’s accusers have said in court papers that Dershowitz was aware of and even took part in the sex with minors—which he has vigorously denied. Clinton put out a statement last week distancing himself from Epstein, but failed to mention at least one dinner they attended. –Daily Beast

Epstein’s 2008 ‘sweetheart’ deal has already claimed one casualty – former Labor Secretary Alexander Acosta, who was forced to step down last week following national outrage over his actions in the case.

END

E)SWAMP STORIES/MAJOR STORIES//THE KING REPORT

Like a thief in the night, inflation has invaded the market and some Fed officials’ psyches.

Remember, at first stocks love inflation.  When the bond revolt against inflation hits a critical level, the equity jockeys that ‘get it last’ belatedly fight for the exits.

Core PPI increased 2.3% y/y on June; +2.1% was consensus.  The PPI Index increased 0.1% due to tumbling energy prices.  This should reverse for July because oil and gasoline have soared since the mid-June bottom.  PS – BLS samples on the Tuesday of the week that contains the 13th of the month.

U.S. Producer Prices Increased More Than Forecast in June (While energy prices tanked!)

The cost of goods fell 0.4% after falling 0.2% the previous month.  Services prices increased 0.4% last month after a 0.3% gain in May.  Energy prices slumped 3.1% from the prior month and food cost rose 0.6%, the most this year.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-12/u-s-producer-prices-increased-more-than-forecast-in-june?srnd=markets-vp

It’s clear that service price inflation is rising – and foreign competition is negligible for services.

Per the St. Louis Fed, food inflation leads general inflationPredicting Inflation: Food for Thought

Over the long run, inflation is caused by too much growth in the money supply… Over short periods, however, inflation can be influenced by large changes in the market for particular goods and services…

    Looking at Figure 3 [Forecast Errors of Food and PCEPI Excluding Food and Energy], we see that past inflation in food prices has been a better forecaster of future inflation than has the popular core measure…  https://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/regional-economist/january-2002/predicting-inflation-food-for-thought#figure3

If the BLS would give a modestly fair accounting for July, CPI & PPI should jump due to double-digit percentage rallies in oil and gasoline prices.

The Atlanta Fed: Our Wage Growth Tracker shows median wage growth was 3.9% in JuneRead more on the Atlanta Fed websitehttps://bit.ly/30u983u

    Our sticky-price CPI rose 3.0% in June… https://bit.ly/2Oo8NcK

Chicago Fed President Evans, a long-time uber dove, on Friday said two rate cuts should put inflation above the Fed’s PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) threshold of 2% by 2021.

Evans: “Inflation is going to probably require a little more monetary accommodation… I think that with a couple of rate cuts, the trajectory for inflation could be looking like 2.2% PCE inflation in 2021.”

Once upon a time, the Fed promoted CPI as its main inflation gauge.  When inflation got unruly in the late Seventies, Arthur Burns created Core CPI to remove surging oil and food prices.  Over the past several years, the Fed has moved to PCE solely because it shows lower inflation than Core CPI.

On Friday, ESUs peaked at 6:43 ET.  They steadily declined until they spiked into the European close.  Apparently, European traders got long ESU and European stocks and needed ‘the marks’ at the close.

After the European close, ESUs went inert, trading sideways within a three-handle range until a rally into the VIX Fix intensified into the late Friday rally that almost always occurs before expiry week.

This isn’t rocket science.  We warned in Friday’s missive that traders would play for the late rally on Friday that precedes expiry as well as the rally into earnings reporting season.  With central bank intervention the only positive fundamental in the known universe, trading patterns have become even more ingrained. 

@business: Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is starting to sound a bit like he’s the world’s central banker

Jerome Powell Is Becoming Central Banker to the World [It’s not inflation or US GDP; it’s DB!]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-12/powell-dons-the-mantle-of-world-s-central-banker-as-risks-rise

Lowering interest rates is rooted in desperation. Watch out, investors

Markets have been making new highs because both the Fed and the European Central Bank are desperate to extend the business cycle by any means necessary. But lowering rates is rooted in desperation, and investors may want to carefully consider history and context…

    For 30 years, we’ve seen a consistent narrowing trend in the Fed funds rate. Ever more debt and ever cheaper money is required to maintain the illusion of growth.

    And now the Fed is looking to cut rates with unemployment at 50-year lows and loose financial conditions offering abundant opportunities for credit. And rates are already low, with only 225 basis points to work withthe least amount of ammunition they ever had at their disposal at the end of a cycle.

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/07/11/perspectives/fed-powell-interest-rates-recession/index.html

Beijing to impose sanctions on US firms involved in US$2.2 billion Taiwan arms deal

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3018419/beijing-impose-sanctions-us-firms-involved-us22-billion-taiwan

China’s June exports, imports fall as trade war takes heavier toll

June exports fell 1.3% from a year earlier, not as much as the 2% drop analysts had expected but reversing a surprise gain in May when shippers rushed to beat more U.S. tariffs, customs data showed.

    Imports fell 7.3%, a sharper drop than the 4.5% expected and following an 8.5% contraction in May, suggesting domestic demand remains tepid despite a flurry of growth measures since last year…

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-china-economy-trade-idUKKCN1U70WZ

China’s exports to the US fell 7.8% y/y in June; imports from the US plunged 31.4%.

SCMP: No trade war winners with US and China set to see freight slump, DHL data shows

  • Tariffs are leading to slump in air and sea freight for key commodities, with the US and China both predicted to suffer a trade downturn as a result
  • Logistics company DHL examined freight volumes for early-cycle commodities such as bumpers for cars, touch screens for mobile devices and brand labels for clothes

Chinese trade was expected to contract slightly as a result of smaller sea freight volumes… The US trade outlook is worse: DHL expected a “significant downturn, driven by heavy losses in exports outlook”. Both air and ocean freight have fallen into negative territory over the past quarter, according to the study which found extreme weakness in basic raw materials, chemicals and high technology…

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3017883/us-and-china-will-see-trade-slump-dhl-data-shows-suggesting

The South China Morning Post, of course, opines that the US is worse off from the tariffs.

The NY Post’s John Crudele: Citizenship questions are nothing new for the census  June 17, 2019

Each and every month, the US Census Bureau conducts at least one survey that includes a question about citizenship…Other government surveys, including the Health Interview Survey conducted by Census for the Centers for Disease Control, also ask citizenship questions, and have for years

    It’s funny that nobody thought of questioning any of this until now.

https://nypost.com/2019/06/17/citizenship-questions-are-nothing-new-for-the-census/

Team Trump was well aware of the above story and the pertinent elements in it.

Trump Says He Will Seek Citizenship Information from Existing Federal Records, Not the Census

“This information is also relevant to administering our elections,” said Mr. Trump. “Some states may want to draw state and local legislative districts, based upon the voter eligible population.”…

   The United States has never had a central registry of citizens and noncitizens, and in theory Mr. Trump’s order could result in one. But data sharing is supposed to go only in one direction: from other agencies into the Census Bureau but not back out. The Census Bureau for decades has relied on data from other agencies to check the accuracy of their head counts…

    Although noncitizens often falsely respond that they are citizens on the survey, data from other agencies would help weed out those responses. That would provide a reasonably accurate portrayal of citizenship even down to census blocks, the bureau’s smallest population unit, said John Thompson, who ran the bureau from 2013 to 2017.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/11/us/politics/census-executive-action.html

Trump and Barr pulled a fast one on Dems, SCOTUS liberals and Chief Justice Roberts.  By siding with liberals to prevent a citizen question on the Census, Roberts opened the door for Trump to use other federal data that is reportedly more accurate than the Decennial Census.  This could result in Blue States losing: House seats, $billions in government largesse and Electoral Votes.

@realDonaldTrump: So interesting to see “Progressive” Democrat Congresswomen, who originally came from countries whose governments are a complete and total catastrophe, the worst, most corrupt and inept anywhere in the world (if they even have a functioning government at all), now loudly and viciously telling the people of the United States, the greatest and most powerful Nation on earth, how our government is to be run. Why don’t they go back and help fix the totally broken and crime infested places from which they came. Then come back[Dems & MSM did not report the ‘then return’ verbiage.] and show us how it is done. These places need your help badly, you can’t leave fast enough. I’m sure that Nancy Pelosi would be very happy to quickly work out free travel arrangements!

Trump stokes anger with comments ahead of immigration raids

President tells lawmakers to go back to ‘crime infested places from which they came’

https://www.ft.comcontent/9b9d02aa-a63d-11e9-984c-fac8325aaa04

Pelosi slams Trump for ‘xenophobic’ tweets about Dem lawmakers  https://trib.al/Xnb7Tt4

OAN’s @EmeraldRobinson: Notice that Nancy Pelosi took the first chance she got to call President Trump a bigot. The reason: Trump defended Pelosi against AOC, and his implied endorsement will destroy her among progressives

Exclusive poll: AOC defining Dems in swing states [‘Tis why DJT wants Dems tied to AOC et al]

Top Democrats are circulating a poll showing that one of the House’s most progressive members — Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez — has become a definitional face for the party with a crucial group of swing voters… These Democrats are sounding the alarm that swing voters know and dislike socialism, warning it could cost them the House and the presidency…

  • Ocasio-Cortez was recognized by 74% of voters in the poll; 22% had a favorable view.
  • Rep. Ilhan Omar of Minnesota — another member of The Squad — was recognized by 53% of the voters; 9% (not a typo) had a favorable view.
  • Socialism was viewed favorably by 18% of the voters and unfavorably by 69%.
  • Capitalism was 56% favorable; 32% unfavorable.
  • “Socialism is toxic to these voters,” said the top Democrat…

https://www.axios.com/alexandria-ocasio-cortez-poll-democrats-2020-aeaa3771-f142-4059-b79e-1fed569dfdf9.html

@ByronYork: From CBS Denver: Protesters Remove U.S. Flag, Replace It with Mexican Flag outside ICE Facility in Aurora [Colorado].

Armed man [Antifa] killed after throwing incendiary devices at Washington ICE detention center

https://www.foxnews.com/us/armed-man-reportedly-shot-after-throwing-incendiary-devices-at-ice-detention-center

We all know the people that have been demonizing ICE for the past two years.  Will the MSM and saner angels hold them accountable?

OAN’s @jennfranconews: Pres. Trump is considering getting rid of National Intelligence Director Dan Coats, and is eager to disband the “unnecessary” agency altogether. (per @axios)

@paulsperry_: In major blow to Dems’ Russia-stole-election narrative, a US judge orders Mueller to cease & desist making unsupported claim the Russian troll farm entities he indicted were directed by the Kremlin as part of a social media influence ops to interfere in the 2016 election

CNN: [SDNY] Prosecutors unlikely to charge Trump Org executives, sources say[Barr Effect?]

https://www.cnn.com/2019/07/12/politics/trump-organization-federal-prosecutors/index.html

@johncardillo: Acosta resigns, his partner in the inexcusable Epstein plea deal,Mueller, offers to “delay” his Congressional testimony for a week with an even weaker excuse, but nothing to see here.

Elements of the pressed Trump about Epstein on Friday.  DJT told them to check and see who visited Epstein’s island.  The media was not happy with the response.  If Trump hadn’t appointed Acosta to be Labor Secretary, the media would have continued to ignore Epstein.

WaPo: Jeffrey Epstein paid suspected co-conspirators in sex crimes case, which prosecutors suggest might have been to ‘influence’ them     https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/epstein-paid-suspected-co-conspirators-which-prosecutors-suggest-may-have-been-to-influence-them/2019/07/12/eebd5148-a4ed-11e9-b732-41a79c2551bf_story.html

Scientists discover radiation leak ‘100,000 times normal level’ from Russian nuclear sub wreck

Scientists have identified a radiation leak on the wreck of a Russian nuclear submarine that sank in Arctic waters in 1989…    https://www.foxnews.com/science/radiation-leak-russian-nuclear-sub

end

Well that about does it for tonight, but before closing here is Greg Hunter interviewing Martin Armstrong.

I know many of you are fans of Martin Armstrong. I am not that fond of what he writes.  However, he makes some interesting comments on Epstein and the dollar.

(courtesy Martin Armstrong/Greg Hunter/USAWatchdog)

Epstein Case Could Shake Global Confidence – Martin Armstrong

Epstein Case Could Shake Global Confidence – Martin Armstrong

By Greg Hunter On July 14, 2019

Legendary geopolitical and financial analyst Martin Armstrong says America’s economy is like being “the prettiest ugly sister in the family” of nations. So, if the U.S. economy is so good, why the rush to cut interest rates? Armstrong explains, “It’s really the world economy which is in serious trouble. You really have to look closely and pay attention to the words (Fed Head) Powell said. The economy is strong, unemployment is fine. Why would you cut interest rates when the stock market is making record highs? Powell said basically because it was things happening outside the country. The Fed, as I have said before, has become the central bank for the world. . . . This is the problem, and Europe is a complete basket case. They don’t get it, and they keep trying to hold onto their power and punish anyone who disagrees with them. . . . Why is the U.S. economy so good? Why is the Dow at a record high? China is in trouble. Europe is in trouble. Japan is a basket case. The capital is coming here.”

Back in February, Armstrong pointed out in an interview on USAWatchdog.com, “Gold has been rallying right along with the U.S. stock market. This is what I’ve said all along. Eventually, towards the end, they have to align. Why? Because at that stage of the game, it’s us against government. So, tangible assets rise.”

Armstrong says gold catching a bid well above $1,400 per ounce is the beginning of people losing faith in governments around the world. Armstrong says, “What makes gold go up? That’s when the confidence in government declines, and we are no talking about just the gold bugs. We are talking about the average person on the street. They have to reach that point where they question what is going on in government. We are getting close to that. Gallup put out, and I put it on our blog, that 35% of Americans now say that government is the number one problem. When we reach about 45%, things are going to get a lot hairier. . . . When gold is not on a gold standard, and it’s a commodity like everything else, then basically gold goes up against the currency and so does the stock market. So, you have the stock market at highs, and you have gold that caught a bid.”

On the U.S., dollar Armstrong says, “The U.S. wants a lower dollar, and the dollar is being pushed higher. People don’t get this. They say, ‘oh, the dollar has got to crash.’ If the dollar crashes, Trump is having a great day on trade and etcetera. You take the dollar up, and that is what puts pressure on world trade. . . . If the dollar goes down, they are licking their lips and say this is fantastic because they will sell more stuff. When the dollar goes up, that is when you start getting trade friction . . . . The dollar going up is the only thing that is going to break the system. A lower dollar is not going to break it. It is only going to prolong it.”

On Jeffery Epstein and his criminal sexual spider web of underage girls and the global elites, Armstrong says, “It’s an issue of confidence. Could it contribute to the confidence and the faith in government? Yes. It depends on what these prosecutors want to do. Are they going to try to implicate President Clinton with it, or are they just going to try to hush it up as they usually do? You have the Deep State, and it’s really, really deep, and people don’t realize how bad this stuff is. . . . If you start taking down more and more political leaders, then you are going to start to undermine the confidence in the establishment. That’s what our computers have been showing.”
Armstrong says, “Look for inflation to pick up starting in 2020.”

Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with renowned economic and political cycle analyst Martin Armstrong.

-END-

World economic news:

Asian markets recover after C

I will see you on TUESDAY night

H

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