JULY 24//GOLD UP 2.05 TO $1423//SILVER AGAIN SHINES UP 16 CENTS TO $16.59//MUELLER HORRIFIC TO DEMOCRATS WITH HIS PERFORMANCE TODAY: IT SURE LOOKS LIKE THE USA PUBLIC FINALLY GET WHAT HAPPENED!//NORTH KOREA FIRES ANOTHER MISSILE!!//DEUTSCHE BANK CONTINUES HIS DOWNWARD SPIRAL INTO OBLIVION//MORE RHETORIC FROM BANKRUPT IRAN//

FINALIZED//

GOLD: $1423.40  UP $2.05 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

 

 

 

 

Silver

$16.59 UP 16 CENTS  (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)//

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Closing access prices:

 

 

Gold : $1423.00

 

silver:  $16.60

WE HAVE A POWER FAILURE IN OUR AREA AS MY INTERNET WAS DOWN FOR 8 HRS. I WAS OUT OF LOOP FOR MOST OF THE DAY

BUT I HAVE MANAGED TO GET ALL OF YOUR DATA AND THE MAJOR STORIES FOR THE DAY

YOUR DATA…

 

COMEX DATA

we are coming very close to a commercial failure!!

 

 

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING 0/2

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: JULY 2019 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,420.100000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 07/23/2019 DELIVERY DATE: 07/25/2019
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
737 C ADVANTAGE 1 2
905 C ADM 1
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 2 2
MONTH TO DATE: 943

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  JULY CONTRACT: 2 NOTICE(S) FOR 200 OZ (0.00630 tonnes

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  943 NOTICES FOR 94300 OZ  (2.9331 TONNES)

 

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR JULY

 

 

51 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 255,000  OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month: 4353 for   21,765,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE :  $ 9686 DOWN 177 

 

 

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $ 9758 DOWN 103

 

 

 

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

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IN SILVER THE COMEX OI ROSE BY A STRONG  SIZED 1858 CONTRACTS FROM 232,877 UP TO 234,735 DESPITE THE TINY 5 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX.

TODAY WE ARRIVED CLOSER TO  AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:,

0 FOR JULY. 0 FOR AUGUST, 1551 FOR SEPT, AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  1551 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 1551 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 1551 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 7.755 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 5 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.290 MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING FOR JULY

 

WE HAD ATTEMPTED COVERING OF SHORTS AT THE SILVER COMEX LAST NIGHT WITH ZERO SUCCESS..AND ZERO SPREADING ACCUMULATION.

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF JULY:

29,821 CONTRACTS (FOR 16 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 29.821 CONTRACTS) OR 149.10 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1863 CONTRACTS OR 9.319 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF JULY:  149.10 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 21.3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          1305.30   MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2019 EFP TOTALS:                                                      217.455. MILLION OZ

FEB 2019 TOTALS:                                                                       147.4     MILLION OZ/

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                          207.835 MILLION OZ

APRIL 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                              182.87  MILLION OZ.

MAY 2019: TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                136.55 MILLION OZ

JUNE 2019 , TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                               265.38 MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1858, DESPITE  THE TINY 5 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /YESTERDAY... THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A  STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 1551 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

 

TODAY WE GAINED A VERY STRONG  SIZED: 3409 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 

i.e 1551 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH INCREASE OF 1858  OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 5 CENT GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $16.43 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY!! 

 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.174 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 168% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT MARCH MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 51 NOTICE(S) FOR 255,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 CONTRACTS ON APRIL 9.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51.  

AND NOW WE RECORD FOR POSTERITY ANOTHER ALL TIME RECORD OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX OF 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUGUST 22/2018 AND AGAIN WHEN THIS RECORD WAS SET, THE PRICE OF SILVER WAS $14.78 AND LOWER IN PRICE THAN PREVIOUS RECORDS.

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.290 MILLION OZ
  2. HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018) AND NOW AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
  4. RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

.

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY AN ATMOSPHERIC AND CRIMINALLY SIZED 15,647 CONTRACTS, TO 616,859 ACCOMPANYING THE  $5.25 PRICING LOSS WITH RESPECT TO COMEX GOLD PRICING YESTERDAY// /THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION IS NOW IN FULL SWING FOR GOLD….

 

 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A GOOD SIZED 4782 CONTRACTS:

APRIL 0 CONTRACTS,JUNE: 0 CONTRACTS, AUGUST 2019: 4282 CONTRACTS, DEC>  500 CONTRACTS AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 616859,.  ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A HUGE SIZED LOSS IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 10,865 CONTRACTS: 15,647 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX  AND 4782 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI LOSS OF 10,865 CONTRACTS OR 1,086,500 OZ OR 33.79 TONNES.  YESTERDAY WE HAD A STRONG LOSS OF $5.25 IN GOLD TRADING.AND WITH THAT  LOSS IN  PRICE, WE  HAD A STRONG LOSS IN GOLD TONNAGE OF 33.79  TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS WERE SUPPLYING INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER. HOWEVER THE MAJORITY OF THAT LOSS WAS DUE TO THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION.

 

WITH RESPECT TO SPREADING:  WE WILL WITNESS THE MORPHING OF OUR SPREADERS OUT OF SILVER AND INTO GOLD AS THE JULY MONTH PROCEEDS INTO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST. 

 

 

 

FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS WITH RESPECT TO THEIR SPREAD/TRADING.

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCHED TO GOLD AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NO INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY HEADING TOWARDS THE VERY ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST.

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST IS STARTING TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF JULY BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (AUGUST), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.” 

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JULY : 141.839 CONTRACTS OR 14,183,900 oz OR 441,17 TONNES (16 TRADING DAY AND THUS AVERAGING: 9338 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 16 TRADING DAY IN  TONNES: 441.17 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 441.17/3550 x 100% TONNES =12.42% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     3478.98  TONNES

JANUARY 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;   531.20 TONNES

FEB 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:             344.36 TONNES

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:       497.16 TONNES

APRIL 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                 456.10 TONNES

MAY 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    449.10 TONNES

JUNE 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                   642.22 TONNES

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

 

Result: A HUMONGOUS SIZED DECREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 15,647 WITH THE STRONG PRICING LOSS THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY($5.25)) //.WE ALSO HAD  A STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 4782 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 4782 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE  HAD AN ATMOSPHERIC  AND CRIMINALLY SIZED LOSS OF 10,865 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

4782 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 15,647 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE LOSS IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 33.79 TONNES). ..AND THIS HUGE DECREASE OF  DEMAND OCCURRED ACCOMPANYING THE LOSS IN PRICE OF $5.25 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX. WE ARE NOW WITNESSING THE  SPREADING LIQUIDATION IN FULL SWING WITH RESPECT TO  GOLD AS  THIS MONTH OF JULY PROCEEDS TO ITS CONCLUSION./

 

 

 

we had:  2 notice(s) filed upon for 200 oz of gold at the comex.

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

 

WITH GOLD UP $2.05 TODAY//

A BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD TODAY.

A PAPER GOLD WITHDRAWAL : 2.93 TONNES

 

 

 

INVENTORY RESTS AT 822.25 TONNES

 

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

SLV/

WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY:

 

ANOTHER BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.685 MILLION OZ ADDED INTO THE GLD

 

 

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 359.383 MILLION OZ.

 

 

 

 

 

end

 

OUTLINE OF TOPICS TONIGHT

 

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 21858 CONTRACTS from 232,877 UP TO 234,735 AND CLOSER TO THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET LAST IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  1 1/3 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.  AS YOU CAN SEE, WE HAVE RECORD HIGH OPEN INTERESTS IN SILVER  ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUAL LOWER PRICE WHEN THAT RECORD WAS SET…..THE SPREADERS HAVE COMMENCED THEIR LIQUIDATION OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS IN GOLD

 

 

 

EFP ISSUANCE: 

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 

FOR JULY: 0 CONTRACTS FOR AUGUST: 0, FOR SEPT. 1551  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1551 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE OI GAIN AT THE COMEX OF 1858  CONTRACTS TO THE 1551 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN AN STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 3409 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 17.05 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL  18.765 MILLION OZ FOR MAY  NOW 2.660 MILLION OZ FOR JUNE WITH JULY AT 22.290 MILLION OZ STANDING SO FAR.

 

 

RESULT: A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE 5 CENT GAIN IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED 1551 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)WEDNESDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 23,33 POINTS OR 0.80%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 57.56 POINTS OR 0.20%   /The Nikkei closed UP 88.69 POINTS OR 0.41%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .73%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.8745 /Oil UP TO 57.21 dollars per barrel for WTI and 64.13 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 6.8745 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.8769 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

North Korea/South Korea/Russia

North Korea detains a fishing vessel flying under a Russian flag.  Several Russians and two South Koreans were detained.

the world is going nuts..

(zerohedge)

3b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3c CHINA

Beijing accuses Washington of undermining global stability with its massive support of Taiwan

(zerohedge)

 

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)Germany/Deutsche bank

Deutsche bank is in serious trouble.  Not only are they offside with their derivative losses but also trading revenues are plummeting..basically because authorities are watching them closely.  They cannot cheat.

These guys are going to fail and that is when everything goes boom as the derivatives blow up

(zerohedge)

ii)EU

This is important.  Europe is already in negative interest rates.  A further 1% cut (1000 basis points) will crush the banks including Deutsche bank to death
(zerohedge)

iii)France, Germany, UK, IranWe now have France and Germany joining the UK on a joint maritime security mission in the Gulf

(zerohedge)

iv)Greece
Wow!!!  Totally absurd…Greek 10 yr bonds fall below 2% and below USA 10 yr rate
(zerohedge)
v )ECB
Deflation heading our way as the dismal PMi numbers indicate that two rate cuts are already baked in the oven. If the ECB lowers rates, it will kill the banks
(zerohedge)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

i)Iran

Iran is terribly broke as they cannot even fund their proxies Hezbollah in Lebanon and their allies in Syria. They will try and do anything to get the USA to the table.  However  the risk of war is great:  they now announce that their military will “secure” the International waterways of the Strait of Hormuz

(zero hedge)

ii)More rhetoric coming from Iran this morning..they reject the French and Germans joining the  UK in protecting the Gulf waterways

(zerohedge)

6.Global Issues

A strong Bellwether:  CAterpillar shares slump on lower earning guidance and a retail sales miss

(zerohedge)

7. OIL ISSUES

The next commentary is a problem but must be addressed.  The Yemeni ship containing a million barrels of oil is sitting idle moored in Yemen but under the control of the Iranian backed Houthis.  If the ship explodes, it will send this million barrels into the Red Sea destroying major fishing and many wildlife.

 

(Iran Slav/OilPrice.com))

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

Venezuela

The USA is now willing to negotiate ‘guarantees” for Maduro’s voluntary exit from Venezuela so that they can put their chosen one, Guaido to replace him

(zerohedge)

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)Craig Hemke talks about the fraudulent USA debt ceiling

(zerohedge)

ii)This is your most important commentary for today…Luongo is stating that gold is now the go to “money: as Europe or basically the Euro is dying

 

10. important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

i)Boeing Q 2 revenue plunges missing by $5 billion and it results in a huge one billion cash burn.

(zerohedge)

ii)This is very important: The USA manufacturing PMI slumps to a 10 yr low.  Another strong indicator that the USA economy is faltering

(zerohedge)

iii)Hard data: another indicator of problems in the USA economy..new home sales miss despite a mortgage rate collapse.

(zerohedge)

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

i)With the suspension of the debt ceiling Snyder states the obvious: both Dems and Reps are both conspiring to bankrupt America and destroy its future..a good read…

(courtesy Michael Snyder)

ii)Tech shares tumble after the Dept of Justice launches a huge antitrust review of all big tech corporations including Google, and Facebook.

(zerohedge)

iii)Tariffs are crippling the manufacturing of RV’s because of taxes on aluminium and steel

(zerohedge)

iv)Mnuchin blasts two specific areas for “destroying’ the USA retail industry:

1. Bitcoin

2. Bezos of Amazon

(zerohedge)

iv) Swamp commentaries)

Interesting read…Deutsche bank flagged Jefferey Epstein’s overseas transactions for sex trafficking.  They alerted the authorities but they still did transactions for him

(zerohedge)

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

 

LET US BEGIN:

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY AN ATMOSPHERIC AND CRIMINALLY SIZED 15,647 CONTRACTS TO A LEVEL OF 616,859 ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG LOSS OF $5.35 IN GOLD PRICING WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S // COMEX TRADING)

WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED STRONG SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 4782 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

 FOR AUGUST; 4282 CONTRACTS: DEC: 500   AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  4782 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 10,865 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 4782 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE LOST A HUMONGOUS SIZED 15,647 COMEX CONTRACTS THE BANKERS ARE NOW IN FULL SWING WITH THEIR SPREADING LIQUIDATION. 

 

 

NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ::  10,865 CONTRACTS OR 1,086,500 OZ OR 33.79 TONNES.

 

We are now in the NON  active contract month of JULY and here the open interest stands at 8 CONTRACTS as we LOST 1 contract.  We had 1 notices filed yesterday so we surprisingly  gained 0 contracts or NIL oz of gold that will stand for delivery  The next big active month for deliverable gold is August and here the OI FELL by a WHOPPING 39,987 (WITH THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION THE MAJOR PART OF THE FALL) contracts DOWN to 236,233. The next non active month is September and here the OI rose by 272 contracts up to 1578.  The next active delivery month is October and here the OI rose by 1919 contracts up to 30,198.

 

 

 

TODAY’S NOTICES FILED:

WE HAD 2 NOTICES FILED TODAY AT THE COMEX FOR  200 OZ. (0.00630 TONNES)

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total COMEX silver OI ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 1858 CONTRACTS FROM 233,360 UP TO 234,735 (AND CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S CONSIDERABLE  OI COMEX GAIN OCCURRED WITH A TINY 5 CENT GAIN IN PRICING.//YESTERDAY.

 

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY.  HERE WE HAVE 156OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS STAND FOR DELIVERY WITH A LOSS OF 243 CONTRACTS.  WE HAD 293 NOTICES FILED YESTERDAY SO WE AGAIN GAINED A WHOPPING 50 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 250,000 OZ OF SILVER WILL STAND AT THE COMEX…. AND THESE GUYS REFUSED TO MORPH INTO A LONDON BASED FORWARD AS WELL AS NEGATING A FIAT BONUS. LET US WAIT AND SEE IF THEY ARE SUCCESSFUL IN OBTAINING PHYSICAL METAL ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND. AFTER JULY WE HAVE THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF AUGUST AND HERE WE LOST 67 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 1089.  THE NEXT BIG ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH AFTER AUGUST IS SEPT AND HERE THE OI ROSE BY 1565 CONTRACTS UP TO 161,580 CONTRACTS.

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 51 notice(s) filed for 255,000 OZ for the JULY, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 370,951  CONTRACTS 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  463,476  contracts

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  JULY/GOLD

JULY 24/2019

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
nil oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil oz

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

nil

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
2 notice(s)
 100 OZ
(0.0186 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
6 contracts
(600 oz)
0.018 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
943 notices
94,100 OZ
2.9331 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 0 dealer entry:

We had 0 kilobar entries

 

 

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

 

we had 0 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan:  nil oz

 

ii) Into everybody else:  zero

 

 

 

total gold deposits: zero  oz

 

very little gold arrives from outside/ a zero amount  arrived   today

we had 0 gold withdrawal from the customer account:

 

 

 

total gold withdrawals; nil  oz

 

 

 we had 2 adjustment today
i) Out of Brinks:  295.75 oz was adjusted out of the customer account and this landed into the dealer account of Brinks
ii) Out of Manfra: 100.29 oz was adjusted out of the customer account and this landed into the dealer account of Manfra.

FOR THE JULY 2019 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 2 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 1 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JULY /2019. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (943) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  JULY. (8 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (2 x 100 oz per contract) equals 94,900 OZ OR 2.9517 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this NON active month of JULY

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JULY/2019 contract month:

No of notices served (943 x 100 oz)  + (8)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (2 x 100 oz )which equals 94,900 oz standing OR 2.9517 TONNES in this  active delivery month of JULY.

We GAINED 0 contracts or an additional NIL oz will stand as these guys refused to morph into London based forwards as well as negating a fiat bonus.

 

 

 

 

 

SURPRISINGLY LITTLE TO NO  GOLD HAS BEEN ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS AND WE HAVE WITNESSED THIS FOR THE PAST YEAR!!  WE HAVE ONLY 10.0235 TONNES OF REGISTERED (  GOLD OFFERED FOR SALE) VS 2.9517  TONNES OF GOLD STANDING// THEY SEEM TO BE USING CONSIDERABLE GOLD VAPOUR TO SETTLE UPON UNSUSPECTING LONGS.

 

 

total registered or dealer gold:  322,728,368 oz or  10.0235 tonnes 
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   7,749,869.449 oz 241.053 tonnes

IN THE LAST 33 MONTHS 115 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

 

 

 

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX 
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.

 

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY

INITIAL  standings/SILVER

IN TOTAL CONTRAST TO GOLD, HUGE ACTIVITY IN SILVER TODAY.
JULY 24 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 34,986.437 oz
Brinks
Int. Delaware

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
1,134,863.019 oz
CNT
Delaware
Scotia
No of oz served today (contracts)
51
CONTRACT(S)
(255,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
105 contracts
 525,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 4353 contracts

21,765,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

**

 

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil  oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had  0 deposits into the customer account

i)Into JPMorgan 0 oz

ii) Into everybody else: 0

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 153.4 million oz of  total silver inventory or 50.36% of all official comex silver. (153.4 million/304.6 million

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  nil  oz

 

we had 2 withdrawals out of the customer account:

 

 

i) Out of Brinks:  1044.000 oz

ii) Out of Int Delaware:  33,942.437 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total 34,986.437  oz

 

we had 0 adjustment :

 

 

 

total dealer silver:  93.706 million

total dealer + customer silver:  307.902 million oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

 

The total number of notices filed today for the JULY 2019. contract month is represented by 51 contract(s) FOR 255,000 oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JULY, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 4353 x 5,000 oz = 21,765,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JULY. (156) and the number of notices served upon today (51 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the JULY/2019 contract month: 4353 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of JULY (156) number of notices served upon today (51)x 5000 oz equals 22,290,000 oz of silver standing for the JULY contract month.

WE GAINED 50 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 250,000 OZ WILL STAND AT THE COMEX AS THESE GUYS REFUSED TO MORPH INTO A LONDON BASED FORWARDS AND AS WELL THEY ALSO NEGATED A FIAT BONUS. SOMEBODY URGENTLY WAS IN NEED OF SILVER ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND TONIGHT.

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 51 notice(s) filed for 255,000 OZ for the JULY, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

 

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME:  85,827 CONTRACTS (we had considerable spreading activity..accumulation

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 119,214 CONTRACTS..

 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 119,214 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 596 million  OZ 85.1% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..makes sense!!

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

 

end

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

 

 

NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV RISES TO -1.50.% ((JULY 24/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV FALLS TO -1.44% to NAV (JULY 18/2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -1.50%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 14.26 TRADING 13.79/DISCOUNT 3.27

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

JULY 24.2019: WITH GOLD UP $2.05 TO DAY: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.93 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD

JULY 23// WITH GOLD DOWN $5.25 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 825.18 TONNES

JULY 22/WITH GOLD UP 0.80 CENTS: TWO MASSIVE PAPER GOLD DEPOSIT OF 5.87 TONNES AND 4.69 TONNES ADDED TO THE GLD..THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD!!/INVENTORY RESTS AT 825.18 TONNES

JULY 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.00: A MASSIVE  DEPOSIT OF 11.44 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 814.62

JULY 18/WITH GOLD UP $5.55 TODAY: A BIG PAPER DEPOSIT OF 3.81 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 803.18 TONNES

JULY 17/WITH GOLD UP $11.35 TODAY: A BIG WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 799.37 TONNES

JULY 16: WITH GOLD DOWN $2.15 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 800.54 TONNES

JULY 15: WITH GOLD UP $1.85 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 800.54 TONNES

JULY 12/WITH GOLD UP $5.20 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 800.54 TONNES

JULY 11.WITH GOLD DOWN $5.25: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 800.54 TONNES

JULY 10//WITH GOLD UP $11.65 A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER GOLD DEPOSIT OF 6.46 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 800.54 TONNES

JULY 9/WITH GOLD UP 70 CENTS, A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.89 TONNES WHICH WAS USED IN THE FUTILE RAID ON GOLD AND SILVER THIS MORNING//INVENTORY RESTS AT 794.08 TONNES

JULY 8/ WITH GOLD DOWN 35 CENTS A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY FALLS TO 796.97 TONNES

JULY 5TH/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.50/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INV RESTS AT 798.44 TONNES

JULY 3// WITH GOLD UP $12.60 TODAY A SURPRISE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.76 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT  798.44

 

JULY 2. WITH GOLD UP $18.90 A HUGE “PAPER” DEPOSIT OF 6.16 TONNES INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 800.20 TONNES

JULY 1: WITH GOLD DOWN $24.70 A HUGE “PAPER GOLD” WITHDRAWAL OF 1.76 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 794.04 TONNES

JUNE 28/WITH GOLD UP $.90 TODAY: ANOTHER 2.05 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD REMOVED AND THIS GOLD WAS USED IN ATTACKING GOLD AT THE COMEX/INVENTORY RESTS AT 795.80 TONNES

JUNE 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.10: ANOTHER HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.76 PAPER TONNES FROM THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 797.61 TONNES

JUNE 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.00: WE HAD A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.37 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 799.61 TONNES

JUNE 25/WITH GOLD UP $1.30 (AND WAY UP BEFORE THE BANKERS WHACKED) WE WITNESSED ANOTHER 1.95 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD ADDED TO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 801.98 TONNES

JUNE 24/WITH GOLD UP $18.00 A MONSTROUS PAPER DEPOSIT OF 34.93 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 799.03 TONNES

JUNE 21/WITH GOLD UP $  2.90, NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: INVENTORY RESTS AT: 764.10 TONNES

June 20/WITH GOLD UP $47.95, NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.10 TONNES

JUNE 19 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.65: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.10 TONES

JUNE 18/JUNE 18/WITH GOLD UP $7.60: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.10 TONNES

 

JUNE 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.65 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.10 TONNES

JUNE 14/ WITH GOLD UP $1.05 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.40 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.10 TONNES

JUNE 13/WITH GOLD UP $6.60 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.52 TONNES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 759.70 TONNES

JUNE 12/WITH GOLD UP $7.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 756.18 TONNES

JUNE 11/WITH GOLD UP $1.65 CENTS TODAY: A TINY CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .24 TONNES AND THIS IS TO PAY FOR FEES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 756.18 TONNES

JUNE 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $16.40 TODAY: A BIG  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 756.42 TONNES

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

JULY 24/2019/ Inventory rests tonight at 822.25 tonnes

*IN LAST 628 TRADING DAYS: 112.51 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 528 TRADING DAYS: A NET 53.17 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

 

 

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

JULY 24.2019: WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS: ANOTHER PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.685 MILLION OZ/

JULY 23/2019: WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY: ANOTHER BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.221 MILLION PAPER OZ ADDED INTO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 357.698 MILLION OZ////

JULY 22.2019/WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS TODAY: A MASSIVE  CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 8.939 MILLION OZ ADDED TO THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 355.919 MILLION OZ//

JULY 19/WITH SILVER FLAT TODAY: ANOTHER MONSTROUS PAPER DEPOSIT OF 3.276 MILLION OZ ENTERS THE SLV//WHAT A MASSIVE FRAUD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 346.980 MILLION OZ

JULY 18/WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.668 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 343.704 MILLION OZ//

JULY 17: WITH SILVER UP ANOTHER 29 CENTS: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 8.518 MILLION OZ/INTO THE SLV INVENTORY///INVENTORY RESTS AT 341.036 MILLION OZ//

JULY 16: WITH SILVER UP 31 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.518 MILLION OZ

JULY: 15  WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.518 MILLION OZ

JULY 12/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.518 MILLION OZ//

JULY 11/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY

JULY 10/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.518 MILLION OZ//

JULY 9/WITH SILVER UP A SMALL 7 CENTS A GIGANTIC INVENTORY GAIN OF 4.026 MILLION OZ/ INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.518 MILLION OZ AND NOW IT SHOULD BE QUITE CLEAR THAT THE SLV ( AND GLD ARE FRAUDS)

JULY 8/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 328,492 MILLION OZ

JULY 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 32 CENTS WE STRANGELY HAD A HUGE INVENTORY GAIN OF 2,234 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 328.492 MILLION OZ

JULY 3 WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS A HUGE INCREASE IN INVENTORY..INVENTORY RESTS AT 326.151 MILLION OZ

JULY 2/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 323.330 MILLION OZ//

JULY 1/ WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS: A SURPRISING DEPOSIT OF 936,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 323.330 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 28/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 322.394 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.575 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 322.394 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 26/WITH SILVER UP 17 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.819 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.819 MILLION OZ.

JUNE 24/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.819 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 22 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.819 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 20/WITH SILVER UP 53 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.819 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.070 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 18 WITH SILVER UP 18 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.070 MILLION OZ

JUNE 17/WITH SILVER UP XXX CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.775 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 9  CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.775 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 13/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.775 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 12/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.413 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.775 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 11/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.652 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 38 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.652 MILLION OZ//

JULY 24/2019:

 

 

Inventory 359.383 MILLION OZ

 

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.24/ and libor 6 month duration 2.18

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: – .06

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.17%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 2.19

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = -.02

end

 

 

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

 

 

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

Craig Hemke talks about the fraudulent USA debt ceiling

(zerohedge)

Craig Hemke at Sprott Money: The U.S. debt ceiling illusion

 Section: 

8:52p ET Tuesday, July 23, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

The U.S. government’s “debt ceiling” is a fraud, the TF Metals Report’s Craig Hemke writes tonight at Sprott Money, because it is no longer a fixed amount of indebtedness but rather a date after which incurring more debt is prohibited, a date that is routinely extended.

Hemke’s commentary is headlined “The U.S. Debt Ceiling Illusion” and it’s posted at Sprott Money here:

https://www.sprottmoney.com/Blog/the-us-debt-ceiling-illusion-craig-hemk…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

iii) Other physical stories:

This is your most important commentary for today…Luongo is stating that gold is now the go to “money: as Europe or basically the Euro is dying

(Tom Luongo)

 

Europe Is Dying On A Cross Of Gold

Authored by Tom Luongo,

Gold is calling out the insanity of the European Union. It is also calling out the insanity of the global economy. But really it’s all about the euro at this point.

Since breaking through the post-Brexit high of $1375 per ounce, gold has pushed higher. Yes, it’s been volatile. Yes, the forces of control keep trying to stuff gold back inside the box, as it were.

And they keep failing.

Last week’s price action was impressive, even if the close was less than stellar. In the world of financial commentary everyone is looking for proximate causes for spikes and dips.

But most of that is simply noise. I don’t care why gold touched $1450 last week, only that it did.

Because a bull market that shakes off a number of big intra-week corrections to then blast to a new near-term high is a healthy one; one climbing the proverbial wall of worry.

And what’s important here is that this is not an anti-dollar trade. It is an anti-euro one. The U.S. Dollar Index has fully shaken off all attempts by the Fed to talk it down, trading at 97.6, and threatening a back-to-back monthly reversal at 97.8.

The euro is collapsing back towards its recent lows at $1.11 while the British pound is in free fall on renewed hopes of a No-Deal Brexit under new Prime Minister Boris Johnson.

Yes, Brexit is a proximate cause of these moves but they are also continuations of much larger and longer trends that cannot be ignored. It is the drive towards further political integration in Europe which is the cause of these declines.

The political landscape in Europe is, at best, fractious. And that is always reflected in a currency. This is especially true in what Martin Armstrong calls a “non-core” currency like the euro.

If the above charts don’t convince you, then this one should.

The dollar is the world’s reserve currency, for now. It certainly is versus the pound, euro and yen which are its biggest trading pairs. So when there is political unrest capital flows from that place to the reserve currency’s home, in this case the U.S.

And, despite the best efforts of the Democrats and The Davos Crowd, Donald Trump’s presidency is in far better shape than Ursula von der Leyen’s. Mish points out in response to my article from last week, that the EU is headed for even more gridlock and divisiveness than I’ve handicapped to this point.

I thought I was a euro-bear, but Mike makes me look like a Tesla punter.

Who does von der Leyen owe for her ‘election,’ Mike asks? It’s a good question but the answer boils down to George Soros and The Davos Crowd, who are desperate to keep Project Europe on the runway.

As long as Boris Johnson is not another stalking horse for the EU like Theresa “The Gypsum Lady” May was, he will have all the leverage between now and Halloween in Brexit talks.

And von der Leyen has been instructed to give Johnson whatever is necessary to achieve BRINO — Brexit in Name Only.

Only that will stop the bleeding of the euro, which needs to happen lest interest rates begin to rise. As long as there is no further technical breakdown of the euro, the current insane buying spree of toxic euro-bond debt will continue, per ECB President Mario Draghi’s plan.

The euro sliding below $1.11 reveals how unprofitable these current interest rate positions are and will unwind.

This further exposes Deutsche Bank. It should cause a spiral up in the U.S. dollar. Gold will get bid as well, on balance, as investors look to safe-haven assets.

Don’t underestimate China and Russia to come in and push the gold price up at vulnerable moments either. They have the money and incentive to do this. The more Russia de-dollarizes the more exposure to the euro they have in the form of corporate debt.

A falling euro and rising gold is exactly what companies like Gazprom and Rosneft want to see. On the flip side Europe is banning gas for new home construction, even as the continent moves towards more gas consumption.

This is the very picture of regulatory dysfunction. Just wait until the more powerful Greens get their political hooks into the European Commission.

The stampede out of the euro, given Germany’s increasingly precarious economy (and the slow motion implosion of Deutsche Bank), is just beginning. 

  • Brexit of some form not to the EU’s liking is on the table lest Nigel Farage becomes Prime Minister. 
  • Angela Merkel is on her last legs, physically and politically. 
  • France wants to punish the English for Brexit.
  • Italy wants out of the euro.

And the U.S. is leaning on everyone not to get off the train of any of the post-World War II institutions it rules: the IMF, NATO, the EU, etc.  That project is failing as well, but not today.

Weaponizing the dollar today will result in its destruction tomorrow. But for now, the dollar is still king and it is looking ready to push up, alongside a resurgent gold, to crush the unsustainable euro.

end

 

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early THURSDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 6.8745/ GETTING VERY DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.8769   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 23.33 POINTS OR 0.80%

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 57.56 POINTS OR 0.20%

 

2. Nikkei closed UP 88.69 POINTS OR 0.41%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL MIXED/

 

 

 

USA dollar index DOWN TO 97.62/Euro FALLS TO 1.1148

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. –.15/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 108.06/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 56.91 and Brent: 63.99

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE UP/OFF- SHORE: UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO -.37%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 1.50% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.35%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.87: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 2.01

3k Gold at $1427.15 silver at: 16.56   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 10/100 in roubles/dollar) 63.11

3m oil into the 56 dollar handle for WTI and 64 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 108.06 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9851 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0982 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to 0.37%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.06% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.59%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.7273..

Global Stocks Slump As German Manufacturing Craters, Tech Spooked By DOJ Probe

S&P futures reversed a two-day rally, dropping alongside European stocks, led by the tech sector after the DOJ announced it was launching a broad, anti-trust review of the mega-tech (FANG) names, while weaker-than-expected composite PMIs in the Eurozone weighed on equities and sent bond yields to new all time lows, with manufacturing readings in Germany and France standing out. The dollar slumped while cable spiked one day after BoJo was elected as the next prime minister.

 

Weaker-than-expected composite PMIs in Germany and France weighed on equities and lifted bond prices, with manufacturing readings in Germany and France standing out, as the recession in Germany’s manufacturing sector worsened in July with the performance of goods producers dropping to the lowest level in seven years while French business growth slowed unexpectedly, the latest PMIs showed.

 

Trade tensions, weaker demand abroad and the travails of the car industry have built up over the past year to take a toll on the engine of Europe’s economy. They’ve dragged manufacturing into its deepest slump in seven years, and some of the nation’s biggest corporate names from BASF SE to Daimler AG and Continental AG have had to come to terms with a new reality for business. As one of the world’s biggest exporters, Germany is paying a high price for the the slowdown in global trade. The economy is forecast to grow the least in six years in 2019, the Bundesbank sees no sign of an export recovery and some are even saying there’s a risk of recession.

Beyond manufacturing, Germany’s image has also been dented by the troubles at Deutsche Bank AG, which is cutting thousands of jobs, and warned Wednesday that its trading slump deepened sending its stock sharply lower.

Downbeat earnings as well as the weaker-than-expected Eurozone manufacturing surveys took European shares and the euro a leg lower, with the single currency hitting two-month lows. Following strength in Asia, MSCI’S All-Country World index extended its previous day’s gains by a whisker, rising 0.02%. Sentiment was boosted by a Bloomberg report that U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer would travel to Shanghai next week for meetings with Chinese officials.

“While the resumption of trade talks appears to mitigate any near-term deterioration in US-China tensions, prudent investors will not get carried away, seeing as a meaningful deal still seems a long way off,” said Han Tan, market analyst at FXTM.

Asian stocks climbed for a second day, led by communications firms, as U.S. officials prepare to travel to China next week for trade negotiations. Markets in the region were mixed, with China and Australia advancing and India retreating. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.8% for its biggest gain in three weeks, as large insurers and banks offered strong support. The Topix added 0.4%, driven by Toyota Motor and Sony. SoftBank gained 1% following a report that it’s close to announcing the launch of a new technology investment vehicle modeled on its giant $100 billion Vision Fund. The Bank of Japan may lower its inflation forecast for this fiscal year and downgrade some of its economic growth projections. India’s Sensex slipped 0.2%, with Reliance Industries and Larsen & Toubro among the biggest drags, as investors judged bad debt risks at some financial companies.

With the latest PMIs confirming Europe is on the edge of recession, the ECB is thought likely to at least offer a nod to easier policy at its meeting on Thursday. Meanwhile, in the US, futures remain 100% priced for a rate cut of 25 basis points from the Federal Reserve next week, and even imply an 18% chance of 50 basis points. The prospect of widespread central bank largesse helped take the sting out of a downgrade to the IMF’s global growth forecasts.

“There are two conflicting catalysts for stock traders right now: on one hand, central banks around the world are about to embark on an easing initiative…,” said Konstantinos Anthis, head of research at ADSS. “On the other though, the slowdown in growth on a global scale and various geopolitical factors keep weighing down on corporate profitability, asking questions on whether equities have peaked.”

In FX, the euro declined for a fourth day after manufacturing gauges in Europe came in weaker than forecast. The common currency hit a two-month lows at $1.1127, falling further after the weak PMIs. It also hit a near seven-month trough against the yen at 120.19 though it recovered from a two-year low versus the Swiss franc.  The Australian dollar tumbled after a domestic bank that has correctly called previous policy decisions flagged two more rate cuts. The pound reversed losses before Boris Johnson was set to be appointed U.K. prime minister, with a cabinet reshuffle expected later Wednesday, with investors unclear as to whether he will lead the country to a no-deal EU exit or find a compromise.

“We believe that in the short term the market is overstating the risk of a no deal,” said Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management. “While a no-deal Brexit remains possible over the longer term, our view is that the most likely path in the short term is for a further extension to the UK’s 31 October exit day, either due to a change in stance from PM Johnson, or in the case of a general election.”

In rates, fears of a European recession sent investors toward the safety of German bunds, with Treasury and gilt yields also sliding lower in unison.  European bond yields lower across the curves, also dragging down UST yields, with BTPs and Bonos outperforming.

Expected data include PMI readings, mortgage applications and new home sales. AT&T, Boeing, Caterpillar, UPS, Facebook, Ford, and Tesla are among companies reporting earnings

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.3% to 2,998.25
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.1% to 391.14
  • MXAP up 0.2% to 160.97
  • MXAPJ down 0.03% to 528.60
  • Nikkei up 0.4% to 21,709.57
  • Topix up 0.4% to 1,575.09
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.2% to 28,524.04
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.8% to 2,923.28
  • Sensex down 0.3% to 37,881.58
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.8% to 6,776.67
  • Kospi down 0.9% to 2,082.30
  • German 10Y yield fell 2.6 bps to -0.381%
  • Euro down 0.1% to $1.1137
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 5.0 bps to 1.25%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 3.1 bps to 0.363%
  • Brent futures up 0.4% to $64.11/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.4% to $1,423.97
  • U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 97.71

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • European Central Bank policy makers have plenty of reasons to wait until September before committing to more stimulus; in the run-up to their meeting, Governing Council members have said that additional support measures are available, if needed, to boost the euro zone’s ailing economy
  • U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and senior U.S. officials are set to travel to China next Monday for the first high-level, face-to-face trade negotiations between the world’s two biggest economies since talks broke down in May
  • Boris Johnson will formally take office as U.K. prime minister Wednesday and seek to build a government that will bring his Conservative Party together and deliver Brexit The new leader will give hardline Brexiteer Priti Patel a cabinet role and promote politicians of all stripes to try to reflect modern Britain, according to a person familiar with his plans
  • U.K. businesses urges Johnson to soften “hugely worrying” Brexit stance
  • China’s central bank governor said the country’s current interest rates are at an appropriate level, and policy will reflect domestic considerations
  • Bank of Japan will probably lower its inflation forecast for this fiscal year and may also downgrade some of its economic growth projections at its meeting next week, according to people familiar
  • Oil rallied as plans for a meeting between the U.S. and China offered a hint of progress in the trade war dividing the world’s two biggest economies
  • Speaker Nancy Pelosi says the House will have the votes to pass the budget, debt limit deal

Asian equity markets traded mostly higher with sentiment lifted by US-China trade hopes after reports US Trade Representative Lighthizer will lead a small team of negotiators to China next Monday for trade discussions. This underpinned major indices on Wall St. with outperformance seen in the trade sensitive sectors such as materials and industrials, although futures pared some of the gains after-market on news the DoJ is to open a broad antitrust review on the large tech firms. Nonetheless, ASX 200 (+0.8%) and Nikkei 225 (+0.4%) were higher with broad strength seen in Australia aside from the mining sector, while gains in Tokyo were capped amid a downturn among JPY-crosses. Hang Seng (+0.3%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.8%) showed a strong performance on the trade optimism which was also helped by US Commerce Secretary Ross who said he will deal with Huawei waiver applications within the next few weeks, while China was also said to be looking to make more agricultural purchases as a goodwill gesture. Finally, 10yr JGBs were uneventful with demand sapped following similar uninspiring trade in USTs amid the positive risk tone and with the BoJ also absent from the market today.

Top Asian News

  • World’s Top Toymaker Joins Companies Leaving China’s Factories
  • Japan May Soon Gain A Powerful Trade Weapon Against South Korea
  • Hong Kong’s NWS Is Said to Mull Sale of Public Transport Assets
  • Malaysia’s PE Fund Said to Weigh Options for Oil Tanker Operator

Major European bourses are marginally lower [Eurostoxx 50 -0.2%] following on from a relatively flat open as overall downbeat flash PMIs from Europe weighted on the region. UK’s FTSE 100 (-1.0%) lags its peers amid unfavourable currency action coupled with underperformance in heavyweight mining names following a barrage of broker downgrades. As such, Rio Tinto (-4.0%), BHP (-3.4%) and Anglo American (-3.1%) all rest at the foot of the index. Sectors are mixed with defensive sectors supported due to the current cautious risk tone. In terms of individual movers, ASM (+7.3%), ITV (+6.1%) and Akzo Nobel (+4.1%) shares are all fuelled by earnings and trade at the top of the Stoxx 600. On the flip side, Deutsche Bank (-3.7%) shares plumbed the depths post-earning after the German lender reported a larger than expected net loss and cut its FY 19 revenue guidance.

Top European News

  • Euro Area’s Economic Struggles Persist as Industry Slump Deepens
  • Dovish ECB Renders More Czech Rate Hikes Pointless for Michl
  • Paris Scorches in Historic Drought as Heatwave Fries Europe
  • Repsol Announces Buyback Plan as Oil Earnings Kick Off

In FX, dollar bulls have gleaned even more encouragement from unfolding US-China trade developments given that face-to-face talks look set to resume early next week, and Beijing offers to buy more agricultural goods as a good will gesture in response. Moreover, the Dollar continues to proffer from the demise of others and increasingly constructive technical impulses with the DXY eclipsing a Fib retracement level and inching closer towards the psychological 98.000 mark.

  • AUD/NZD – The Aussie has given up 0.7000+ status and is now threatening to slide below 0.6975 in wake of slowdowns in all CBA PMI readings overnight and yet another dovish RBA policy call looking for 2 further cuts in the OCR (Westpac this time eyeing moves in October and February 2020). All this ahead of comments from RBA Lowe in the early hours on Thursday and in contrast to the Kiwi that is keeping in contact with 0.6700 after a wider than forecast NZ trade balance, albeit due to a bigger miss on the import side vs exports.
  • EUR/CHF/CAD – The single currency has also been undermined by PMI surveys, and in particular the manufacturing prints showing France on the 50 threshold and Germany sinking deeper into contraction. With Eurozone M3 also softer than expected, rate cut odds have now tipped in favour of 10 bp for tomorrow’s ECB meeting and Eur/Usd is losing sight of decent option expiry interest at 1.1150 (1 bn) as a result, but holding above the ytd base and 1.1100 where big barriers lie. Meanwhile, the Franc has retreated further vs the Buck within a 0.9850-75 band, but remains above 1.1000 against the Euro pending Thursday’s ECB policy pronouncements and the SNB’s response, but the Loonie has clawed back some lost ground vs its US counterpart to meander between 1.3129-47 compared to 1.3164 or so at one stage on Tuesday.
  • GBP/JPY – Relative outperformers and bucking the overall trend, as the Pound maintains its recovery momentum following confirmation that Boris Johnson will take over the reins from Theresa May as Tory Party head. Cable has extended its rebound from near 1.2400 to 1.2480+ awaiting the official unveiling of the new PM and his Cabinet line up, with Eur/Gbp down towards 0.8925 and early July mtd lows. Similarly, the Yen is still displaying resilience in the face of overall Usd strength and upbeat risk sentiment despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, with a reluctance to stray too far from 108.00 where massive expiries roll off (4.3 bn) and technical resistance capping the upside (108.31 Fib).
  • EM – The Rand remains in the spotlight amidst comments from SARB Governor Kganyago underlining post-rate cut guidance for limited additional monetary stimulus and CPI data that was slightly firmer than anticipated in m/m terms. Usd/Zar is hovering just below 13.9500 as the Central Bank head highlights the fact that neutral rates have risen due to risk premia of late and this makes it tougher for further easing.

In commodities, WTI and Brent futures are taking a breather from last night’s geopolitical-induced gains in which the benchmarks reclaimed USD 57/bbl and USD 64/bbl to the upside on reports that UK approached EU nations to join a European-led mission for safe shipping via the Strait of Hormuz. Furthermore, reports of a US delegation heading to China on Monday exacerbated upside in the complex on sentiment. Meanwhile, the mammoth drawdown in API crude stocks (-10.96mln vs. Exp. -4.0mln) added further fuel to the upside for oil, although the immediate jolt was quickly faded due to bearish components of the release including a surprise build in gasoline inventories, it’s worth noting that this week’s inventory data also captures the late effects of Storm Barry. Elsewhere, spot gold in is crawling higher as the yellow metal consolidates following its recent decline from 6yr highs. Copper prices are marginally lower amid the cautious risk tone, albeit remain above USD 2.70/lb, while Dalian Iron ore extended losses amid slowing demand in the wake of output restrictions on steel producers in China’s top steel-making city Tangshan.

US Event Calendar

  • 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, prior -1.1%
  • 9:45am: Markit US Manufacturing PMI, est. 51, prior 50.6; Services PMI, est. 51.8, prior 51.5
  • 10am: New Home Sales, est. 658,000, prior 626,000; est. 5.11%, prior -7.8%

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

I’ve been promised the hottest night of my life this week. For the avoidance of doubt, meteorologists have suggested that this week will likely see the hottest overnight temperatures on record here in the UK and the hottest July day on record and possibly a new overall record. I must admit the more I read about climate change the more worried I get. However all I will say is that since we moved house three months ago we must have eaten outside in the evening 90% of the time I’ve been around. It’s been absolutely fantastic. Not even a swarm of flying ants could stop us last night. The only thing missing was a glass of Rose. Interestingly flying ants have been so prevalent over the last week in the South of England that they’ve appeared on weather radars and some forecasters initially mistook them for a band of rain!

As well as potentially being the hottest day ever tomorrow, it’s possible we’ll also start the latest round of global monetary stimulus or at least get new dovish forward guidance from the ECB. Given we’re on the eve of such an event and given that we have seen a big rally in global assets as a prelude, I found it interesting to read DB’s Binky Chadha’s latest asset allocation piece yesterday (see link here). In it he showed that since the 1950s, the Fed has embarked on 19 easing cycles, including the unconventional easing measures adopted during the course of this economic recovery. However of these, 9 or almost half, saw the economy eventually slip into recession. The episodes that ended in recession saw the ISM continue to weaken, eventually bottoming – 8 months after the Fed began cutting – at low levels (median 36). In these recession episodes, the S&P 500 saw a full bear market, typically falling -27% from peak to trough, with a bulk of the decline occurring after the Fed had started easing. Indeed, on average, the S&P 500 did not bottom until 5 months after the Fed started cutting. The distinguishing characteristic of the episodes that did not end in recessions was that after a moderate further decline in growth (to a median ISM 48), on average within 2-3 months after the Fed began easing, growth rebounded quickly. The equity market typically fell -7% after the Fed began easing, but bottomed quickly with growth. The S&P 500 ended above the pre-easing level within 6 months each and every time, rising a robust 12% on average. So my take on this is that history suggests a much higher probability of an imminent recession than markets do and also that we’re at quite a binary moment for markets as the Fed (and other central banks) embark on a fresh easing cycle. See the piece for much more detail.

In terms of markets yesterday, the focus was a further rally for equities across the world, with the S&P 500 closing +0.69% higher and above the 3000 level for only the fourth time in history. Elsewhere, the DOW and NASDAQ advanced +0.65% and +0.58%. After US markets closed, the Justice Department said it is investigating tech firms for antitrust violations, which caused the Nasdaq to retrace a bit more than half of its gains from yesterday, with futures down -0.18% overnight. Shares of Amazon (-0.95%), Alphabet (-0.96%) and Facebook (-1.54%) declined c.1% in after-hours trading. Prior to that, indexes were supported by strong earnings reports, as well as positive news on the trade front after Europe went home. USTR Lighthizer and other senior officials will reportedly travel to China on Monday for face-to-face talks, likely staying through Wednesday. European equities rallied as well before this news, with the STOXX 600 up +0.98% and the DAX trading +1.64%.

The positive trade news has also supported the Asian session overnight with Chinese markets leading advances – the CSI (+1.03%), Shanghai Comp (+1.01%) and Shenzhen Comp (+1.39%) are all up over 1%. The Nikkei (+0.46%) and Hang Seng (+0.93%) are also up while the Kospi is down -0.25%. Elsewhere, futures on the S&P 500 are trading largely unchanged while crude oil prices (WTI +0.41%, Brent +0.27%) are up for the fourth day in a row on a report from the American Petroleum Institute which showed a 10.96 million barrel decline in US crude stockpiles last week. In terms of overnight data releases Japan’s preliminary July manufacturing PMI came in at 49.6 (vs. 49.3 last month) while the services PMI stood at +52.3 (vs. 51.9 last month) bringing the composite PMI print to 51.2 (vs. 50.8 last month).

Ahead of tomorrow’s ECB meeting the next test will be the rest of today’s flash global PMIs. The last few months have seen some stabilisation in the data with the manufacturing PMI for the Euro Area hitting 47.6 in June (vs. 47.7, 47.9 and 47.5 in the three months prior). The consensus expects a 47.7 reading for July. As for the services reading the consensus expects a 53.3 print which compares to 53.6 last month. We should note that we’ll also get country level PMI data for Germany, France, and also the US.

Turning back to the earnings reports from yesterday, Coca-Cola (+6.07%) and United Technologies (+1.50%) led gains. Coca-Cola shares climbed to a record high after their results showed a strong increase in demand, with full-year revenue growth estimated to grow 5%, up 1pp from the previous guidance. Demand from China has been a key driver of that growth, with sales volumes up 7% in Asia’s largest economy. United Technologies also raised their guidance, citing strong jet engine sales. After hours, Texas Instruments (+7.01%) and Snap (+9.10%) rallied strongly, as the former raised its guidance and the latter increased its daily user count to 203 million, compared to consensus estimates for 192 million.

The risk-on sentiment bled over into fixed income markets, where 10-year treasury yields rose +2.6bps. Two-year yields rose +2.5bps, leaving the 2y10y curve roughly flat. Earlier in the session, European yields rallied with bund yields down -0.9bps to -0.355%. BTPs outperformed, gaining -5.1bps. In the UK, gilt yields fell -1.6bps and the Treasury sold new 10-year notes at their second lowest ever yield at 0.789%, above only the September 2016 auction. In credit, HY spreads tightened -3.6bps and -4.7bps in Europe and the US. This morning we have published an update of our analysis looking at relative value between the EUR and USD HY markets. EUR HY has generally outperformed since February and within the note we assess whether USD HY is now starting to look relatively more attractive ( link here).

As widely expected, Boris Johnson was elected the leader of the Conservative Party yesterday, and as such will become the new UK PM this afternoon. While journals stretching to the moon and back have been written on the Brexit implications, less has been written on the wider economic policy mix of the incoming government. DB’s Oli Harvey wrote on this yesterday (see link here) and thinks that if the new administration survives or wins an election we could have a sizeable departure from the post 2010 regime. Indications are that Borisnomics may represent a significant relaxing of fiscal policy leading to materially higher borrowing and hence issuance. At the same time, we think there is at least some possibility the Bank of England’s mandate could be adapted to provide the bank more flexibility over inflation. This policy move is likely to be more extreme in a hard Brexit scenario but fiscal policy is likely going to take the strain in all reasonable scenarios. Oli thinks the best trades are forward steepeners such as 2s10s 2 year forward. As I’ve repeatedly suggested the UK could start the helicopter money experiment (on a hard Brexit) that I think is likely across the globe in the years ahead.

Elsewhere in the UK, there was some attention paid to two BoE speakers, Saunders and Haldane, who both leaned dovishly. Saunders is possibly the biggest hawk on the MPC, but he said that the economy looks weak and “is clearly not overheating,” suggesting potential support for policy easing. Similarly, Haldane said that uncertainty is high and “the case for holding rates until the road becomes clearer is strong.” Considering that he had previously argued for higher rates before the June policy meeting, this was a decidedly dovish shift as well. At the same time, the UK’s CBI manufacturing orders index fell to -34, its lowest level in over 9 years and far worse than the expected -15. The cocktail of dovish signals and weak data pushed the pound -0.31% weaker versus the dollar.

Away from markets, the IMF updated its World Economic Outlook and cut its forecast for global growth by -0.1pp for both 2019 and 2020, to 3.2% and 3.5%, respectively. The update described growth as “sluggish” and “subdued” and also noted that risks are tilted to the downside, emphasizing trade tension uncertainties. Nevertheless, the forecast for the US rose +0.3pp to 2.6% for this year, while Europe’s stayed steady at 1.3%. The forecast for China was revised down -0.1pp, to 6.2%, while India’s was trimmed -0.3pp to 7.0%. The IMF also revised down its forecast for 2019’s growth in world trade volumes by c.1pp, to 2.5%.

To wrap up yesterday’s economic data, in the US it was mostly disappointing, with the Richmond Fed manufacturing index down to -12 versus expectations for a positive print of 5. That contrasts with the recent rebound in surveys from the Philadelphia and New York Feds, giving a cloudier picture ahead of today’s flash PMI. Existing home sales slowed further in June to 5.27mn, weaker than expected, while the FHFA house price index rose only 0.1%, the weakest pace since early 2017 and fourth weakest since 2012. In Europe, consumer confidence improved slightly to -6.6 from -7.2.

Turning to the day ahead, the July flash PMIs in Europe and the US will be the main data focus. Away from that, July confidence indicators are due in France, June M3 money supply data due for the Euro Area and June new home sales data due in the US. Earnings highlights include Boeing, Caterpillar, Ford, Facebook and AT&T. Former Special Counsel Mueller will testify before the House Judiciary and Intelligence committees on Russian election interference.

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)WEDNESDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 23,33 POINTS OR 0.80%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 57.56 POINTS OR 0.20%   /The Nikkei closed UP 88.69 POINTS OR 0.41%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .73%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.8745 /Oil UP TO 57.21 dollars per barrel for WTI and 64.13 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 6.8745 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.8769 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

North Korea/South Korea/Russia

North Korea detains a fishing vessel flying under a Russian flag.  Several Russians and two South Koreans were detained.

the world is going nuts..

(zerohedge)

North Korea Detains Crew Of Russian Fishing Vessel – “Harsh” Interrogations Alleged

Russian officials confirmed Wednesday that 15 of its nationals as well as two South Koreans have been detained for the past week after their fishing vessel drifted into North Korean waters.

The Russian embassy in the DPRK cited the country’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs to say the vessel and crew were seized for“violating the rules of entry and stay in the territory of (North Korea).”

 

File photo: North Korean border patrol boat, via Maritime Bulletin 

Following their July 17 arrest by border guards, the crew has since been detained at a hotel in the city of Wonsan, with the ship, identified as a Russian fishery company owned vessel, has been impounded in the same city.

According to Reuters:

South Korea’s Unification Ministry in charge of inter-Korean affairs said on Wednesday that the two South Korean sailors are safe and it has been striving to secure their freedom through consultations with their families, North Korea and Russia.

The ministry further said North Korea hasn’t responded to South Korea’s repeated calls for the repatriation of its two citizens, described as two men in their 50’s and 60’s.

Russian embassy officials have described the detained crew as “in good health” and are seeking to secure their release through “constant contact” with the government in Pyongyang.

Reports say the embassy is further seeking “clarification” on what happened following an official from the company that owns the seized vessel saying border guards handled the crew in “a very harsh manner”.

As Al Jazeera reports, “The deputy director of Northeast, Sergei Sedler, said the vessel was fishing for crab and travelled from South Korea to the Sea of Japan when it was detained some 55 nautical miles (100 kilometres) from the North Korean border. ”

The company official described to Russia’s Kommersant newspaper: “Twice a day they are questioning and searching them in a very harsh manner” — in reference to the crew.

Though Moscow and Pyongyang currently enjoy positive trade and diplomatic relations, a 2016 incident which involved the opposition scenario – a North Korean vessel drifting into Russian waters – turned deadly.

That prior incident involved a packed North Korean commercial fishing vessel (reports at the time indicated 48 crew) allegedly “acting aggressively” and attempting to flee when boarded by Russian border patrol guards in the Sea of Japan. One Russian border patrol officer and nine North Korean fishermen were injured after the Russians opened fire as the crew resisted, with one North Korean later dying in the hospital.

No doubt Pyongyang has this prior incident front and center in its mind as Russia seeks to negotiate the release of its 15 citizens currently being held after illegally entering North Korean waters.

end

oh no!!

North Korea Fires “Unidentified Projectile”, South Korea News Agency Reports

This will not please President Trump.

Just as Lighthizer and his band of merry trade-deals-men prepare to head to China for face-to-face talks, South Korea’s Yonhap news agency reports that North Korea has fired an unidentified projectile.

Yonhap News Agency

@YonhapNews

(URGENT) N. Korea fires unidentified projectile: S. Korea’s JCS http://yna.kr/AEN20190725000700325 

(URGENT) N. Korea fires unidentified projectile: S. Korea’s JCS | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr

South Korea’s joint chiefs of staff have confirmed the unidentified projectile’s firing from the Wonsan region of North Korea. The launch took place “early morning” today, according to the statement.

Bloomberg reports that South Korean military are monitoring movement and preparing for additional launches.

As a reminder, at the G20 summit in Osaka, Japan in June, Xi urged US President Donald Trump to show “flexibility” and act in a “timely” fashion to ease sanctions on North Korea, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said earlier this month.

Xi’s request reflected Beijing’s desire to boost economic engagements with Pyongyang, analysts said.

Developing…

end

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3c) CHINA AND CHINESE AFFAIRS

Beijing accuses Washington of undermining global stability with its massive support of Taiwan

(zerohedge)

Beijing Accuses Washington Of “Undermining Global Stability” In New Defense Report

For the first time since President Xi began his second term in 2017, China has released a defense white paper that doesn’t elaborate on the country’s military priorities so much as it criticizes Beijing’s chief political adversary – the US – while defending the Communist Party’s right to impose its rule over China’s wayward provinces, including Hong Kong, which is still being rattled by protests, and Taiwan.

It’s the latest sign that tensions between Beijing and Washington over the latter’s support for Taiwan – Washington recently approved the sale of $2 billion in tanks and anti-aircraft missiles – might not only scupper trade talks, they could be the spark that ignites World War III. And what’s more, it comes hours after the White House confirmed that the next round of in-person trade talks had been set for next week. Remember, Beijing has repeatedly threatened to use military force against any foreign power who interferes in its relationship with Taiwan, while Taiwan’s leaders have insisted that they would never submit to Communist Party rule, Bloomberg reports.

China

The paper, titled “China’s National Defense in the New Era” – in a reference to a popular Xi slogan – accused the US of provoking competition among major countries, and noted that the “international security system and order are undermined by growing hegemonism, power politics, unilateralism and constant regional conflicts and wars.”

“(The US) has provoked and intensified competition among major countries, significantly increased its defense expenditure, pushed for additional capacity in nuclear, outer space, cyber and missile defense,” the paper said.

The white paper noted recent patrols by Chinese warships and warplanes around Taiwan, insisting that the operation was intended to send a “stern warning” to Taipei. Oddly, given Beijing’s heated response to the Navy’s “freedom of navigation” operations, the white paper also described the situation in the South China Sea as “generally stable and improving” (despite the international legal battle over which country actually has sovereignty). Though the paper did describe American patrols in the area as “destabilizing.”

As Beijing has often done, the paper criticized foreign forces – a euphemism for the US and UK – for the recent bouts of instability witnessed in Hong Kong, where demonstrations over the hated extradition bill are still going on. On Sunday, 100,000 people rallied in down town Hong Kong for a demonstration that quickly devolved into violence, with police firing tear gas at unruly protesters.

During the press conference introducing the paper, Wu Qian, a spokesman for China’s defense ministry, echoed recent state media reports by insisting that the vandalism of a central government liaison office in Hong Kong was a direct challenge to the Chinese system, and that the PLA garrison in Hong Kong could intervene to end the demonstrations if it is asked by the city’s Beijing-controlled government, the SCMP reports.

“We are closely following the developments in Hong Kong, especially the violent attack against the central government liaison office by radicals on July 21,” Wu said at the briefing.

“Some behaviour of the radical protesters is challenging the authority of the central government and the bottom line of one country, two systems. This is intolerable.”

Foreign Minister Wang Yi blamed the “black hand” of the West for creating trouble in Hong Kong, though he didn’t specifically single out the US.

As CNN pointed out, one change in the 2019 report, compared with the last defense report, published in 2015, is the tight grip that President Xi has over China’s military: It included copious references appearing in the white paper to the “new era” of Xi’s signature ideology.

“Guided by Xi Jinping’s thinking on strengthening the military, China’s national defense in the new era will stride forward along its own path to build a stronger military.”

We imagine analysts at the Pentagon are picking through the report now, trying to suss out exactly what it means for US-China bilateral relations.

end

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

Germany/Deutsche bank

Deutsche bank is in serious trouble.  Not only are they offside with their derivative losses but also trading revenues are plummeting..basically because authorities are watching them closely.  They cannot cheat.

These guys are going to fail and that is when everything goes boom as the derivatives blow up

(zerohedge)

 

Deutsche Bank Tumbles As Trading Revenues Plummet

If one ever needed evidence that such a thing as bank karma exists, look no further than Deutsche Bank, which after manipulating and rigging every market it traded in, violating virtually every regulation and anti-money laundering rule in existence, and quietly witnessing the bizarre, unexplained suicide by more than one senior official, has been caught in a downward spiral of spectacular collapse which culminated recently with the biggest corporate restructuring and mass layoff announced by a major bank. And then there are the earnings.

On Wednesday, the bank that is set to layoff over 20% of its workforce, reported a dramatic decline in trading revenue resulting in a far bigger than expected €3.16 billion net loss, a far cry from the €361MM profit a year ago. While the revenue of €6.2 billion was in line with the preliminary release from July 7, the bank warned that 2019 group revenue would be lower than 2018, blaming lower interest rates on increasing pressure on revenue after trading slump deepened in the second quarter, adding urgency to Chief Executive Officer Christian Sewing’s overhaul plans.

As many expected – largely since it is now firing front-line traders – the bank again underperformed Wall Street peers in trading, with income from buying and selling securities slumping 12%, led by a decline of about a third in the now defunct equities business. While Q2 FICC sales & trading revenue of €1.32 billion was a fraction better than the company-compiled estimate EU1.31 billion, equities sales & trading revenue €369 million badly missed the estimate of €480 million.  Fixed income trading declined 11% when adjusting for the TradeWeb IPO. While Sewing is keeping that business, he is reducing the amount of capital it uses.

The resulting total Q2 trading revenue of €1.69 billion not only missed the average estimate of €1.79 billion, but the 17% decline in trading revenue was the worst of all major Wall Street peers.

Deutsche Bank’s dismal trading Q2 results compared with a decline of around 8% at the five biggest Wall Street banks. UBS Group on Tuesday reported a 9% slump in equities trading and 7% lower revenue from fixed income, which however was better than expected and lifted DBK shares sharply higher. Oops.

Deutsche Bank said it started losing business during the quarter as it became clear it would exit equities trading. Sergio Ermotti, the UBS CEO, said Tuesday that some of the balances from the German lender’s business are coming to his bank’s prime brokerage unit; as a reminder, last week we reported that Deutsche was seeing a whopping €1 billion in daily outflows, as part of its exit from equities, in which the German lender had agreed to transfer some 150 billion euros of balances linked to hedge funds to French rival BNP Paribas SA. Additionally, Deutsche Bank is planning to auction its equity derivatives portfolio and kick off the process in the coming weeks, Bloomberg reports.

At the global transaction bank, which CEO Sewing is separating from the investment bank to make it the centerpiece of a new corporate bank division headed by Stefan Hoops, revenue was essentially flat when adjusting for a one-time gain a year earlier.

Elsewhere, Q2 Private & Commercial Bank revenue of €2.49 billion was in line with the company-compiled estimate EU2.49 billion; meanwhile Asset Management revenue €593 million was slightly ahead of estimates.

But wait, there’s more: after warning of about a €2.8 billion charge just a few weeks back, Deutsche decided to make Q2 into yet another kitchen sink quarter, as the bottom line result also included a bigger than expected €3.4 billion restructuring charge. How DB found an additional several hundred million in “one-time expenses” to lump into the charges in under a month is somewhat perplexing, yet traders would have likely let it slide… if only such “kitchen sinking” wasn’t now a regular, quarterly event at Deutsche Bank.

The pain was not over yet, as CFO James von Moltke had even more surprises in store, when he suggested the outlook for lower rates add further downside pressure on revenues: “Frankly it does represent a revenue pressure for us and all of the banks if rates from here go down further,” von Moltke said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. “It’s something that, as you say, is a significant risk to us.”

Von Moltke said earlier this month that the goal of lifting return on tangible equity to 8% in 2022 “is realistic given the interest rate environment we’re facing.” The bank wants to boost its annual revenue by 2 billion euros through 2022, helped by a “modest improvement” in rates.

“We provided a set of numbers,” von Moltke said on Wednesday. “As one always does, one has to make some planning assumptions, those happened to be at the end of May and we are very aware that the outlook deteriorated during June.”

The CFO also said he expected another €2 billion in second half charges, as he hopes to stabilize and grow revenue in the core bank. He also said that the bank would like to have job numbers in the high 80,000s by the end of the year, down from above 90,000 at present, and has given job notifications to about 900 equities staff.

Moltke said that if the European Central Bank does lower rates, he expects it to shield commercial banks from further harm through deposit tiering, in which some overnight deposits that banks park at the ECB are excluded or charged a less punitive rate. We explained last night why absent tiering, the ECB risked crushing Europe’s already suffering banks.

Attempts to put a favorable spin on the latest disastrous numbers fell far short alas, and as Thomas Hallett, bank analyst at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods in London, wrote, “client retention risks, an unfavorable interest rate environment and negative secular trends across divisions present material headwinds to management plans. These results do little to allay market concerns on the ability to deliver on those targets.

Citi’s Andrew Coombs said he is “most cautious” on the ~€25b revenue assumption the bank has for its 2022 targets. The analyst estimates a greater risk of revenue attrition in the investment bank and believes the bank might need to factor in lower rates at its corporate and retail division

How DB will turnaround the ship with what is increasingly looking like a sub-skeleton crew of workers remains unknown: the German lender’s overhaul resulted in the departure of investment banking head Garth Ritchie. Sewing has taken over oversight over the division at the management board level while operational oversight has been split between Hoops; Mark Fedorcik, head of the investment bank; and Ram Nayak, in charge of fixed-income trading. Christiana Riley, who’s running the bank’s U.S. operations, will join the management board pending regulatory approval.

Deutsche Bank shares fall as much as 5.3% in early Frankfurt trading after the lender reported the disappointing results, and guided to even lower revenue. The move followed an odd gain of 3% on Tuesday after results from UBS and a lift in macro sentiment gave banking stocks a boost.

END
EU
This is important.  Europe is already in negative interest rates.  A further 1% cut (1000 basis points) will crush the banks including Deutsche bank to death
(zerohedge)

Why A 100bps ECB Rate Cut Would Crush European Banks

Last week, when observing the ongoing drop  in both Wells Fargo’s Net Interest Margin…

… as well as the broad decline in Net Interest Income across all US banks as rates continue to drop…

… we warned that this is an early warning of just how the upcoming Fed rate cuts will cripple US banks.

But if US banks are about to get hit, then European banks, which are already in purgatory courtesy of five years of negative rates coupled with both public and private QE, may enter the 9th circle of hell as soon as Thursday, when the ECB previews what may be a 20bps rate cut in September with or without more QE.

While the disastrous performance of European bank stocks since the financial crisis has been extensively discussed, with the European banking sector trading on the edge of support, beyond which nothing good awaits…

… it would be ironic if it is none other than the ECB which tips European bank stocks to new all time lows.

The reason for that is that, as Goldman recently calculated, further rate cuts are “a very uncomfortable prospect” for the
sector, and an indicative -20bps rate cut could lead to an aggregate €5.6bn (-6%) profit cut for the 32 Euro banks under Goldman coverage, with 12 banks facing an >10% EPS cut, and 5 banks >20%. Worse, if Draghi were “forced” to cut rates further still, by say -100bp, one quarter of European banks would turn loss making or break-even, and 75% would not meet their cost of capital, according to Goldman calculations.

First, we lay out a quick, 6-chart summary of what Goldman’s economists will take place in the coming months in Europe:

Next, below are the details from Goldman’s analysis on rate cut-associated hits to income and capital:

A decline in €-rates by -20bps across the yield curve, all else equal, has scope to lower NII and earnings of Euro area banks under our coverage by -3% and -6%, respectively. A profit hit of €5.6 bn would reduce ROTE for the 32 banks under our coverage by 0.6ppt to 8.2%. This said, for 12 banks the EPS impact, measured on a fully loaded pro-forma basis, could be >10%, and for 5 banks >20%. These are meaningful impacts.

Bank-by-bank rankings for banks under Goldman’s coverage are laid our below:

And the next chart shows the aggregate impact of a -20bps rate cut on European banks.

Furthermore, as noted above, incrementally larger cuts have scope to stress sector profitability further:

A -100bps cut would reduce sector’s aggregate ROTE by c. 3pp and, importantly, push ¼ of banks into loss making (4 banks) or break-even (4) territory. Returns for ¾ of all Euro area banks would fall <10% (ROTE), implying that only a handful of banks would be in a position to cover their COE. Deteriorating rate outlook is not a new phenomenon and in the past had already meaningfully impacted our profitability forecasts. We therefore overlay our bottom-up analysis with historical data on NII estimate revisions to substantiate the scale of potential revenue pressures. Notably, we had cut our 2016e aggregate NII estimates by >10% over 2014-16, at the time when both short-term policy (deposit rate: -40bps) and long-term market rates (5 year swap: -110bps) fell sharply.

Empirical evidence – or just one look at Deutsche Bank’s stock price – confirms that the ECB’s negative rates have been revenue and profit negative, to wit from Goldman:

Sharp declines in both short- and long-term rates over 2014-16 corresponded to a substantial (>10%) NII estimate cut, a magnitude which put the sector’s profitability under pressure. However, there are key differences between the current outlook and historical experience, in particular during 2014-16 when rates first turned negative. With diminishing scope to lower deposit rates further and little evidence of easing pressure on lending margins (in particular given the extension of TLTRO, APS), an introduction of reserve tiering by the ECB screens as a key measure to stabilise the Euro area banks’ sector profitability.

There is just one potential loophole for the ECB to avoid destroying Europe’s banks by cutting rates further. As Goldman notes, deposit rate tiering is therefore critical.

Unlike Japan or Switzerland, the ECB does not offer deposit rate tiering, and thus its introduction would be critical for moderating the impact of an incremental rate cut. According to Goldman, the ECB adopting the Swiss model of tiering has scope to reduce the negative effect by ~⅓.

Without tiering, an extremely challenging operating environment becomes worse, and may push an increased number of banks towards break-even, or even loss making territory. However, not all tiering is the same, and the schemes in use  vary greatly in the extent of the offset they provide. In our mind, key questions centre around the following two issues:

  1. could ECB’s tiering efficiency resemble the Swiss or Japanese approach? Swiss approach to tiering is our base-line scenario. And
  2. will it be applied to the incremental cut (-20bp) only, or the full -60bp? In our view, an offset for the entire -60bp is important.

Implementation aside, we see a strong fundamental case for tiering. Euro area banks paid c. €21bn to the ECB since negative deposit rates were first applied in 2014, with the current €7.5bn annual charge set to increase if an incremental rate cut materialises. The skew of ECB’s deposit charge is high, and incurred almost entirely (>80%) by German, French and Benelux banks. Finally, ECB’s absence of tiering is unlike the approach pursued by the Swiss or Japanese central bank

Finally below we lay out Goldman’s 4-step approach to gauging the impact of the ECB’s prospective rate cut on bank profits (overview in Exhibits 1-5):

  • Step 1: “Gross effect” (Columns 1 in Exhibit 1): Estimating effect of a -20bp rate cut, without a tiering offset;
  • Step 2: “Tiering shield” (Columns 2 in Exhibit 1): Goldman estimates the revenue uplift from tiering introduction (Swiss approach, Tiered reserve rate offered at 0);
  • Step 3: “Net effect” (Columns 3 in Exhibit 1): Is the combined effect of an incremental rate cut, alongside the positive effect of tiering. This assumes the end effect, when the assets and liabilities fully reprice.
  • Step 4 “Timing impact” (Columns 4 in Exhibit 1): This takes into account the timing mismatch of effects of tiering on one side, and the full repricing of balance sheets on the other. Due to the front-loaded effects of tiering, tiering would result in a neutral near term effect on banks (and even positive effect for some banks).

In other words, unless the ECB follows the BOJ and SNB into tiering, its rate cut could – ironically – end up being the straw that finally breaks the European’ banking system camel’s back.

In summary, a reduction in interest rates coupled with tiering impact would differ in magnitude as well as timing. While a negative impact of lower rates would exceed the positive revenue uplift associated with reserve tiering, the latter would likely be front-loaded, in our view. All in all, Goldman concludes that the near-term impact on Euro area banks may prove relatively modest given the upfront benefit of tiering could offset initial pressure from lower reinvestment yields.

On the other hand, it is unclear if even tiering would much, if anything to stop the melting of Europe’s €45 trillion melting financial icecube, Deutsche Bank.

END

France, Germany, UK, Iran

We now have France and Germany joining the UK on a joint maritime security mission in the Gulf

(zerohedge)

France & Germany Join UK’s Joint Maritime Security Mission In Gulf

Britain’s new call to establish a “European-led maritime protection mission”is gaining the support of key EU nations France and Germany. UK Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt announced on Monday that the new allied security force in the gulf would provide safe passage for international vessels in the vital oil transit waterway, protecting them from Iranian “state piracy”. But UK officials at the same time emphasized their continued commitment to the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA), despite soaring tensions.

France’s Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian told lawmakers on Tuesday“we are setting up a European initiative, with Britain and Germany, to ensure that there is a mission to monitor and observe maritime security in the Gulf,” but stopped short of backing the UK’s call for a deployment of joint naval forces, only calling it an “observation” mission for the purpose of “de-escalation”.

 

Image source: Fars News

Like with Hunt’s initial introduction of the plan, France is seeking to distance itself from the United States’ build-up of military forces to counter Iran. “This is the opposite of the American initiative which is about maximum pressure to make Iran go back on a certain number of objectives,” Le Drian said.

“In that respect, we should even go further and think about a joint securitisation approach in the Gulf, diplomatically speaking. This way, we’ll really be in a logic of de-escalation,” he added, but without specifying details.

Previously US allies had rebuffed and resisted White house calls for an anti-Iran naval forces, fearing it would worsen already soaring tensions, but it appears last Friday’s dramatic Iranian military seizure of two British tankers (with one, the UK-flagged Stena Impero still in Iran’s custody) has changed Europe’s tune.

 

French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian, via EPA/The National 

Addressing Britain’s Parliament in London on Monday, Foreign Secretary Hunt condemned Iran’s seizure and continued detention of the UK-flagged Stena Impero. “Let us be clear, under international law Iran had no right to obstruct the ship’s passage, let alone board her,” Hunt told the House of Commons. “It was therefore an act of state piracy.”

“We will seek to put together a European-led maritime protection mission to support safe passage of crew and cargo in this vital region,” he said. “We have had constructive discussion with a number of countries in the last 48 hours and we will discuss later this week the best way to complement this with recent U.S. proposals in this area,” Hunt added.

Iran, for its part, says it’s rightly responding to the UK’s early July seizure of the Grace 1, which been transporting 2 million barrels of Iranian oil to Syria.

An unnamed Western diplomat told Reuters last week“The Americans want to create an ‘alliance of the willing’ who confront future attacks,” but at the time asserted, “Nobody wants to be on that confrontational course and part of a U.S. push against Iran.”

But it appears the UK’s hand has been forced, now establishing just such a force in the gulf. Though France and Germany will likely remain reluctant to approve deployment of naval forces, instead signalling a pure observational and ‘monitoring’ role, any further tanker seizures by Iran could easily change that.

The Royal Navy currently has a couple of warships escorting tankers out of the region, with further new unconfirmed reports that it’s deployed a nuclear-powered attack submarine to the region to bolster its force.

end
Greece
Wow!!!  Totally absurd…Greek 10 yr bonds fall below 2% and below USA 10 yr rate
(zerohedge)

Greek Comedy: 10Y GGB Yield Plunges Below 2% For First Time Ever

For the first time in history, the yield on Greece’s 10Y sovereign bonds dropped below 2.00% – having crashed from around 4.00% at the start of the year – and is below US Treasury debt costs.

Greece’s 10-year yield fell 7bps to a record low of 1.984% (and Greek five-year yield falls 4bps to 1.03%, nearing July 3 record low at 1.028%)

 

Finally, do you think Greek debt ‘deserves’ a sub-2% yield?

Debt doesn’t matter stupid!

end
Deflation heading our way as the dismal PMi numbers indicate that two rate cuts are already baked in the oven. If the ECB lowers rates, it will kill the banks
(zerohedge)

ECB Rate Cut Odds Jump After “Dismal” PMIs

Stock bulls got some unexpected “good” news this morning following the latest dismal manufacturing survey data out of the Eurozone. As we noted earlier, Eurozone manufacturing PMI was the worst in six years, with the German Mfg component printing the worst number in seven years, caused by “an accelerated drop in export orders—the most marked in over a decade” per Markit, while French data saw both Services and Manu numbers miss consensus as well.

Why is this good news for stocks? Because as Nomura’s Charlie McElligott writes this morning, the case for imminent ECB “easing” – which may be announced as soon as tomorrow – grows, with a 10bps cut probability rising as much as 51% for tomorrow according to EONIAs…

… with two full cuts priced-in, and causing a “volatility pause” in Bund futures trading, with lower Bund yields tumbling back to just shy of all time lows at -0.39%…

… and feeding into an initial EURUSD dip to 1.1127, just shy of two year lows.

Meanwhile, stocks were happy with the DAX rising to session highs, and just shy of 1 year highs, on this escalating likelihood of an imminent ECB policy rate cut/enhanced easing package, according to McElligott (for a full “menu” of what the ECB may announce tomorrow, see this post).

Putting the latest data, and market reaction in context, the Nomura strategist repeats that his best-case “Dovish Surprise” scenario for global risk-assets at tomorrow’s ECB meeting would be a

  1. 10bps cut with
  2. announced tiering of deposits (+++ EU Banks), something which is critical as otherwise EU banks face dramatic losses as explained last night
  3. enhanced fwd guidance,
  4. resumption of QE in Sep

Yet while McElligott concedes that “that is a lot to deliver on short notice” at this point the manufacturing slowdown in the Eurozone  – especially in Germany and France – and speculation of an imminent recession so real now “that it risks dragging Services with it, which could trigger an actual recession.” As such, the Nomura strategist is confident that the market will “see through” any ECB disappointment tomorrow as purely “delaying the inevitable” and continue pricing-in an aggressive easing package.

Of course, this being McElligott, he quickly looks at the quant factor that are behind the latest move in European stocks and finds that EuroStoxx dynamics “under the hood” once again highlight the Growth Scare/Duration Bid story, “with “Cyclicals” as the three worst performing sectors (Energy, Financials, Materials) while the best performing sectors on the session are the Duration-sensitive “Slow-flation Risk Barbell Longs” of 1) Defensives / Min Vol / Bond Proxies (Utilities, REITS) and 2) Secular Growers (Technology, Comm Services and Cons Disc).” Which is to be expected considering the resumption of the plunge in yields.

However, as Nomura observes, there is one potential offset to the aforementioned dynamic in US equities today that could “soften the blow” for “Value” factor market-neutral: namely the pressure exerted on tech/growth stock, i.e., the prominent “Growth Longs” (also known as “Value Shorts,” because they’re expensive) which are likely to be under with regard to this US DoJ antitrust probe into the Tech giants, although it now appears that the early weakness in the Nasdaq has fizzled and instead the market is more focused on Boeing and CAT which have dragged the Dow lower.

One final point from McElligott: “Gold continues to hold very firm in light of the evidence pointing to likely escalation of “beggar thy neighbor” global FX depreciation wars, $1426.50 last—as we continue seeing macro fund interest in upside expressions across GDX/GLD.”

end

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

Iran

Iran is terribly broke as they cannot even fund their proxies Hezbollah in Lebanon and their allies in Syria. They will try and do anything to get the USA to the table.  However  the risk of war is great:  they now announce that their military will “secure” the International waterways of the Strait of Hormuz

(zero hedge)

Iran Announces Military Will “Secure” Contested Strait Of Hormuz

Hopefully it doesn’t lead to a let’s roll! moment at the White House, where super-hawk national security adviser John Bolton has no doubt been itching for escalation: moments ago Iran’s Deputy Foreign Ministerannounced military forces will “secure” the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran will “not allow disturbance in shipping in this sensitive area” Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi was quoted as saying in state media, while leading a delegation to Paris, Reutersreports. However, it’s unclear at this point how far Iran is willing to go in this escalating game of chicken with the US and UK – both of which have warships and other military assets in the gulf region.

 

Image source: AP

Iran will use its best efforts to secure the region, particularly the Strait of Hormuz, and will not allow any disturbance in shipping in this sensitive area,” Araqchi told French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian during a meeting.

The announcement comes amidst threats and counter threats ongoing between London and Tehran, with each demanding the release of their tanker. Early this month the Royal Navy seized the Grace 1, carrying 2 million barrels of oil, off Gibraltar; and in turn Iran last Friday captured the British-flagged Stena Impero in the Strait of Hormuz.

To be sure, this is not the first time Iran has made such a threat: back in April and before that in December Iran warned it would close the global oil chokepoint, when it said that if someday, the United States decides to block Iran’s oil (exports), no oil will be exported from the Persian Gulf.”

Meanwhile, Iranian vice-president, Eshaq Jahangiri, said that Iran rejects UK-led attempts to establish a “joint European task force” to monitor and patrol the Persian Gulf in order to protect international shipping, countering that it would only bring “insecurity”.

“There is no need to form a coalition because these kinds of coalitions and the presence of foreigners in the region by itself creates insecurity,” he said. And added, “And other than increasing insecurity it will not achieve anything else.” France, Italy, the Netherlands and Denmark indicated Tuesday they would support a European-led naval mission to ensure international vessels’ safe passage in the gulf.

Is Iran now making good on its threats to block global oil shipping out of the vital strait?

developing…

END

More rhetoric coming from Iran this morning..they reject the French and Germans joining the  UK in protecting the Gulf waterways

(zerohedge)

Iran’s Military Vows Attack On All Regional US Bases If War Starts

Iran has again rejected the prospect of new negotiations with the White House “under any circumstances,” according to an interview with Supreme Leader Ayotallah Ali Khamenei’s Military Adviser Hossein Dehghan, cited in Al Jazeera.

The Islamic Republic’s top military adviser further warned Iran and its regional allies will target all American bases in the region should the US launch war plans, while reiterating Iran’s ability to block the vital Strait of Hormuz to global oil transit. Everyone must be able to freely transit the Persian Gulf waterway or no one at all, Dehghan warned.

 

File photo of US troops in Iraq, via the AP

Yesterday, Iranian vice-president, Eshaq Jahangiri, said that Iran rejects UK-led attempts to establish a “joint European task force” to monitor and patrol the Persian Gulf in order to protect international shipping, countering that it would only bring “insecurity”.

“There is no need to form a coalition because these kinds of coalitions and the presence of foreigners in the region by itself creates insecurity,” he said. And added, “And other than increasing insecurity it will not achieve anything else.” France, Italy, the Netherlands and Denmark indicated Tuesday they would support a European-led naval mission to ensure international vessels’ safe passage in the gulf.

Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister further informed France directly while in Paris meeting with top French officials including the president, that Iran’s own military forces will “secure” the Strait of Hormuz and will “not allow disturbance in shipping in this sensitive area,” Reutersreported earlier.

Meanwhile, threats and counter threats have continued to fly between London and Tehran, with each demanding the release of their tanker while accusing the other of “piracy”. Early this month the Royal Navy seized the Grace 1, carrying 2 million barrels of oil, off Gibraltar; and in turn Iran last Friday captured the British-flagged Stena Impero in the Strait of Hormuz.

On Wednesday Iran’s Hassan Rouhani appeared to offer a new deal that could break the stalemate, suggesting that should the UK release the Grace 1, Iran would reciprocate by releasing the Stena Impero.

“If Britain steps away from the wrong actions in Gibraltar, they will receive an appropriate response from Iran,”Rouhani said Wednesday addressing a weekly cabinet meeting. The words came the same day Britain reportedly sent a mediator to Iran seeking the release of the Stena Impero.

end

6.Global Issues

A strong Bellwether:  CAterpillar shares slump on lower earning guidance and a retail sales miss

(zerohedge)

“Cracks Are Showing”: CAT Shares Slump On Lower Earnings Guidance, Retail Sales Miss

Earnings season always features more than a couple of surprises, and on Wednesday morning, the most shocking numbers were released by two of America’s iconic industrial giants: Boeing and Caterpillar.

But while Boeing shares swiftly recovered from their initial earnings inspired selloff as analysts and algos found some redeeming information in the company’s services and defense business, for shares of CAT, it was mostly a one-way move, as the company, which constitutes 3.4% of the Dow, missed on both the top and bottom line – though the company’s warning that it now sees full-year EPS coming in at the lower end of its range, citing rising costs and falling sales in Asia, is what grabbed investors’ attention.

CAT

Shares of CAT and BA weighed on Dow futs.

CAT

It’s the latest sign that the blowback from President Trump’s trade war might be even more severe than many had anticipated. And after the IMF’s dismal economic projections (released yesterday), the results from the global belwether are the second significant sign this week that global economic growth and trade are slowing.

“The increase in manufacturing costs was primarily due to higher material costs, including tariffs, variable labor and burden and warranty expense,” the company said in a statement Wednesday.

Analysts highlighted the whiplash created by CAT’s earnings outlook after several quarters of raising guidance.

“Cracks are showing,” said BI’s Karen Ubelhart. “Outlook unchanged, but Caterpillar emphasized lower end of forecast after a string of quarters of raising guidance.”

Here are the highlights:

  • Adj EPS: $2.83 (est $3.12)
  • Rev: $14.43B (est $14.45B)
  • Still Sees FY Adj EPS: $12.06-$13.06 (est $13.29)
  • Expects To Be At Lower End Of FY Adj EPS Range

CAT also reported its weakest sales since 2017.

CAT

Twitter wits were quick to crack a few jokes.

Tom@TradingThomas3

Headline should be: Boeing and Cat earnings so bad it pushed ES and nasdaq up https://twitter.com/livesquawk/status/1153991253974929408 

LiveSquawk@LiveSquawk

Caterpillar 2Q Earnings: $CAT
-Adj EPS: $2.83 (est $3.12)
-Rev: $14.43B (est $14.42B)
-Still Sees FY Adj EPS: $12.06-$13.06 (est $13.29)
-Expects To Be At Lower End Of FY Adj EPS Range

But while earnings this season have been broadly better than anticipated, will CAT’s struggles factor into the FOMC’s rate-hike thinking next week?

end

7. OIL ISSUES

The next commentary is a problem but must be addressed.  The Yemeni ship containing a million barrels of oil is sitting idle moored in Yemen but under the control of the Iranian backed Houthis.  If the ship explodes, it will send this million barrels into the Red Sea destroying major fishing and many wildlife.

 

(Irina Slav/OilPrice,com)

“Ticking Bomb” – Abandoned Tanker In Red Sea Close To Exploding

Authored by Irina Slav via OilPrice.com,

An oil tanker idling off the coast of Yemen may be nearing an explosion, The Guardian reportsciting experts and a warning by the UN-recognized Yemeni government.

The government, which is fighting the Houthi rebels with the support of Saudi Arabia and the UAE, wrote in a letter to the UN that the situation is bad and deteriorating, and that there is an “imminent environmental and humanitarian catastrophe in the Red Sea”.

The vessel in question is loaded with some 1 million barrels of crude oil with energy experts fearing that the gas build up might eventually lead to a blast and a spill. A UN team has tried to approach it to assess the situation, but the Houthis who control the area where the tanker is moored have refused to grant them access.

“Until a UN technical inspection takes place it is difficult to determine the precise risk that the vessel poses, however the potential for a serious environmental emergency is clear. An explosion leading to a spill would have a severe effect on the Red Sea marine environment, and on both biodiversity and livelihoods, an emergency made worse because the ongoing conflict would hamper efforts to control and respond to the pollution it would cause,” The Guardian quoted an official from the NGO Conflict and Environment Observatory as saying.

رئاسة مجلس الوزراء اليمني@Yemen_PM

Yemeni Government warns of a looming Huge Oil Spill into the Red Sea due to Houthis’ obstruction to maintenance works of crude oil tanker carrying more than a million barrel of crude oil.

Embedded video

The tanker, Safer, is the property of the Yemeni state oil company and before the war was used as both a storage facility and an offloading terminal, The Guardian notes, adding it has a total capacity of 3 million barrels. It has idled since 2015 when the Iran-backed Houthis took control of the area. Experts are particularly concerned with the corrosion rate of the vessel’s hull, which could lead to a leak or a spill.

If the tanker ruptures or explodes, we could see the coastline polluted all along the Red Sea.Depending on the time of year and water currents, the spill could reach from Bab-el-Mandeb to the Suez Canal, and potentially as far as the strait of Hormuz,” the UN humanitarian coordinator for Yemen, Mark Lowcock told the UN Security Council in June.

“I leave it to you to imagine the effect of such a disaster on the environment, shipping lanes and the global economy,” he said, adding “discussions continue to resolve this as quickly as possible.”

Though the Houthi rebels in control of Yemen’s government – known formally by their party title, “Ansar Allah” – initially made the request for assistance with the floating time bomb, Lowcock said Houthi officials “continue to delay” any steps to address the problem.

end

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

Venezuela

The USA is now willing to negotiate ‘guarantees” for Maduro’s voluntary exit from Venezuela so that they can put their chosen one, Guaido to replace him

(zerohedge)

US Willing To Negotiate “Guarantees” For Maduro’s Voluntary Exit

 

With pretty much universal agreement that Washington’s covert as well as politically overt support for pro-coup forces in Venezuela has utterly failed, and with an oil embargo still active but not showing signs of actually loosening Nicolas Maduro’s grip on power (instead only increasing the mystery of the common populace in the socialist country), the White House is really reaching down to its last ditch options in its regime change playbook, short of war.

A new Miami Heraldreport details the Trump administration “appears willing to offer guarantees to Nicolas Maduro that the U.S. will leave him alone if he leaves Venezuela.” Sources cited in the story dubiously claim Maduro is “looking for an exit” and that the White House is mulling giving him “guarantees” of escaping war crimes indictment should he hand over power to opposition leader Juan Guaido of his own accord.

 

Source: AP/The Washington Post

The “possible” “maybe” “perhaps” guarantee would be that the Trump administration would “consider” not bringing international human rights and war crimes related charges against Maduro if he exits power – tantamount to a “safety guaranteed” or ‘get out of jail free’ card of sorts.

A source identified as a high ranking Trump admin official told the Miami Herald:

“I think Maduro perhaps is looking for an exit, but he doesn’t know what it looks like, he does not know if there are guarantees to that. I believe he still thinks that if he goes to, let’s say, the Dominican Republic, we are going to come in and indict him and go after him.”

But the official followed with: “I think that’s the concern and that’s the only thing there’s room for negotiation with Maduro.”

The “high level” administration source spoke as if the offer has already been made, or is on the table, but given the number of caveats he used in framing the “guarantee” to the Herald, we seriously doubt Maduro will find it an attractive inducement to step down, now six months following his emerging clearly victorious from a Guado-led coup effort that only managed to peel off a tiny fraction of the Venezuelan armed forces’ officers.

“The official urged the Venezuelan leader to take advantage of the offer before it is too late,” the report continued.

Seeming to address Maduro directly in the interview with south Florida’s most visible paper, the official continued:

“The time has come to say, this is the opportunity you have, and we are willing to negotiate to close this chapter, but your opportunity is closing because now even the United Nations has created a case that could be used against you at The Hague.”

And added, “My concern is that it becomes a disincentive for him to find a way out. What we want to offer is … this should be your chance to turn the page, now, before it’s too late.”

It’s the latest apparent overture following June remarks by Trump indicating he’d grown “frustrated” and “bored” with pursuing regime change in Caracas. According to the former official who spoke to the Washington Post at the time, Trump had thought of Venezuela “as low-hanging fruit” on which he could “get a win and tout it as a major foreign policy victory.”

“Five or six months later . . . it’s not coming together,” said the Post‘s alleged source. The report had detailed how the president quickly cooled on regime change in Venezuela, and believed that national security adviser John Bolton “got played” along with the director for Latin American Policy, Mauricio Claver-Carone, f

END

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings THURSDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1148 DOWN .0003 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /MIXED

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 108.06 DOWN 0.178 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2505   UP   0.0068  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/BREXIT EXTENDED TO OCT 31/2019//

USA/CAN 1.3129 DOWN .0011 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  THURSDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL BY 8 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1219 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 23.33 POINTS OR 0.80% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 57.56 POINTS OR 0.20%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0,73%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL MIXED

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL MIXED 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 57.56 POINTS OR 0.20%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 23.33 POINTS OR 0.80%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP. 73% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 88.69  POINTS OR 0.41%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1425.90

silver:$16.54-

Early THURSDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.06% !!! DOWN 2 IN POINTS from TUESDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 2.59 DOWN 2  IN BASIS POINTS from TUESDAY night.

USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 97.62 DOWN 6 CENT(S) from  TUESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers WEDNESDAY MORNING

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And now your closing WEDNESDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.42% DOWN 5 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.15%  DOWN 0   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.34%//DOWN 5 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:1,49 DOWN 7 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 115 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.38% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.87% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR THURSDAY

Closing currency crosses for WEDNESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1142  DOWN     .0009 or 9 basis points

USA/Japan: 108.09 DOWN .146 OR YEN UP 15  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2492 UP .0055 POUND UP 55  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar up 6 basis points to 1.3134

 

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The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 6.8718    0N SHORE  (DOWN)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.8739  (YUAN DOWN)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  5.7051 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.15%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield down 2 IN basis points from TUESDAY at 2.05 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.58 down 3 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 97.66 down 4  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for WEDNESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 19.25  0.47%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 44.76 POINTS OR .36%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 7.32 POINTS 0.13%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 53.40 POINTS or 0.58%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 130.67 POINTS OR 0.60%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 57.08 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 64.16 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE RISES:    63.11  THE CROSS LOWER BY 0.08 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE HIGHER BY 8 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.38 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  55.99//

 

 

BRENT :  63.09

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 2.04…

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.57..

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.1141 ( DOWN 9   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:108.18 DOWN .057 (YEN UP 6 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 97.73 UP 2 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 PM: Britain Pound/USA:1.2483 UP 46  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 5.7130

 

 

the Russian rouble 63/28   DOWN 0.02 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( DOWN 2 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3142 DOWN 2 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  6.8719  (ONSHORE)/we need to watch these levels/anything greater than 6.95 will be deadly./

 

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 6.8759 (OFFSHORE) we need to watch these levels/anything greater than 6.95 will be deadly/

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.38%

 

The Dow closed DOWN 79.22 POINTS OR 0.29%

 

NASDAQ closed UP 70.10 POINTS OR 0.85%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  12.07 CLOSED DOWN .54

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.275%//libor dropping like a stone

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

Stocks, Bonds, & Silver Soar As Traders Bet On ECB ‘Shock And Awe’

Ugly European PMIs seemed to cement the confidence for at least one big whale that Draghi (or Lagarde) will signal tomorrow a willingness to deliver “shock and awe” with more rate cuts (buying yards and yards of Dec Euribor Futs)…

Total volumes in the Dec20 euribor contract were over 370,000 ahead of the close, a new record high.

And while German stocks outperformed (implicitly benefiting from the ‘weaker’ euro that may come from a huge rate cut)…

 

As European bank stocks slumped again along with the yield curve…

 

Greek 10Y bond yields plunged back below 2.00% (and remain below the 10Y UST) despite record levels of debt-to-gdp…

And before we leave Europe, as a reminder, Friday marks the 7th anniversary of Draghi’s “Whatever It Takes” moment (which has left EU stocks up over 50%, but banks barely positive)…

So more of the same…

 

Chinese stocks extended yesterday’s gains in the morning session but faded in the afternoon…

 

US markets were mixed with Dow red (Boeing and CAT) as Small Caps soared (squeeze) to their highest close since May and Nasdaq gained (despite the DoJ’s probes)…

NOTE – S&P and Nasdaq Record high

Small Caps soared on the heels of another well-time short-squeeze…

 

The Dow was weighed down by Boeing and Caterpillar…

 

Nasdaq futs plunged overnight along with the mega-tech stocks after news of the DoJ probe… but the machines bid them all back to the moon, alice…

NOTE – FB earnings tonight

FANG Stocks opened gap-down and exploded higher all day…

 

Equity and Credit protection costs plunged this week (but HY is lagging)…

 

VIX plunged to an 11 handle today, bond vol has compressed…

 

Treasury yields were lower across the curve led by a 4bps drop in the long-end dragging the whole curve to unchanged on the week (despite an ugly 5Y auction)…

 

The yield curve re-inverted…

 

And Deutsche suggests there’s a long way to go for rates yet…

 

The Dollar ended the day unchanged after early weakness…

 

Cryptos pumped and dumped today but all remain red on the week…

 

Bitcoin was unable to get back to $10,000…

 

Oil spiked on the big inventory draw then collapsed very suddenly on the day, gold gained but silver outperformed…

 

Silver just keeps on surging, now at new 13-month highs…

 

Silver has outperformed gold for 8 straight days, crushing the gold/silver ratio from 26 year highs…

 

Oil prices jumped on US inventory draws and dumped on headlines that Kuwait and Saudi Arabia will coordinate to resume oil output from the neutral zone shared by the neighboring nations…

 

Finally, its different this time…

  • 60
  • 18092

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

Boeing Q 2 revenue plunges missing by $5 billion and it results in a huge one billion cash burn.

(zerohedge)

Boeing Q2 Revenue Plunges, Missing By $5BN, Resulting In Shocking $1BN Cash Burn

With the storm clouds over the grounded 737 MAX gathering patiently for the past 5 months, it was only a matter of time before the torrential downpour arrived, which it did just before 730am, when Boeing reported shocking numbers, with Q2 EPS printing at a stunning loss of $5.82, far below the expected profit of $1.98 per share and last year’s profit of $3.33 with revenue plunging 35% Y/Y to $15.75BN, some $5 billion below the expected $20.45 billion.

The Max grounding wiped out profit margins for Boeing’s juggernaut commercial airplane division, which typically accounts for about two-thirds of sales. Revenue plunged 66% to $4.72 billion – slightly more than Boeing’s new global services division. The operating margin was -104.7% vs 12.8% a year earlier according to Bloomberg.

The company listed the following reasons for this surprising loss:

  • Recorded lower BCA revenue and operating earnings due to fewer 737 deliveries
  • Booked $4.9B after-tax charge related to estimated potential concessions and other considerations
  • Included $1.7B increased costs to produce aircraft in the 737 program accounting quantity

The 737 MAX fiasco meant that Boeing actually tipped into cash flow negative, reporting $600 million in operating cash burn and a total of $1 billion in negative cash flow, a far cry from the $4.68BN a year ago, while the company’s backlog dropped 2.9% to $474 billion.

END

This is very important: The USA manufacturing PMI slumps to a 10 yr low.  Another strong indicator that the USA economy is faltering

(zerohedge)

US Manufacturing PMI Slumps To 10-Year Low

Despite a collapse in European Manufacturing PMIs (led by Germany), and 3rd month of contraction in Japan PMIs; US PMIs were expected to modestly rebound in preliminary July data, but instead the picture was mixed:

  • US Manufacturing PMI missed – printing 50.0 versus 51.0 exp and down from 50.6 in June
  • US Services PMI beat – printing 52.2 versus 51.8 exp and up from 51.5 in June.

The manufacturing print is the lowest in 118 months.

At 51.6 in July, the seasonally adjusted IHS Markit Flash U.S. Composite PMI Output Index edged up from 51.5 in June and remained higher than the three-year low recorded during May.

Commenting on the flash PMI data, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit said:

The overall picture of modest growth conceals a two-speed economy, with steady service sector growth masking a deepening downturn in the manufacturing sector. The survey’s gauge of factory production has slumped to its lowest since August 2009, and indicates that manufacturing output is falling at a quarterly rate of over 1%, led by an increasing rate of loss of export sales.

The survey’s employment gauge has meanwhile fallen to a level consistent with 130,000 jobs being added in July, down from an average of 200,000, in the first quarter and 150,000 in the second quarter, as firm became increasingly cautious in relation to hiring. Manufacturers are shedding workers at the fastest rate since 2009 and service sector job creation is now down to its lowest since April 2017.

Future prospects have also darkened to the gloomiest since comparable data were first available in 2012, suggesting that companies may look to tighten their belts further in coming months, dampening spending, investment and jobs growth. Geopolitical worries, trade wars and increasingly widespread expectations of slower economic growth at home and internationally have all pulled business optimism lower.”

Williamson concludes:

“The survey data indicated that the economy started the third quarter on a disappointingly soft footing. The PMIs for manufacturing and services collectively point to annualized GDP growth of just 1.6%, up only very marginally from a lacklustre 1.5% indicated by the survey in the second quarter.”

Finally, we note former fund manager and FX trader Richard Breslow’s comments on the dismal data:

“It doesn’t seem like a tremendous leap of faith to worry that they are proving the point of the declining efficacy of existing policies in order to justify experimenting with some of the more outlandish proposals, like MMT, that are getting way too much airtime.”

Does make on wonder.

end

Hard data: another indicator of problems in the USA economy..new home sales miss despite a mortgage rate collapse.

(zerohedge)

New Home Sales Miss As Mortgage Rate Collapse Fails To Bring Buyers Back

Despite yesterday’s disappointing existing home sales print, new home sales were expected to spike (after dropping for two straight months), and did – thanks to a large downward revision in May.

New Home Sales were 646k SAAR in June – missing expectations of 658k. However this 7.0% MoM jump was bigger than expected thanks to the 8.2% revised plunge in May.

May new-home sales were revised down to 604,000 from 626,000; March and April purchases were also revised lower.

Year-over-year, new home sales rebounded…

Purchases of new homes jumped in the West by the most since August 2010, while sales also rose in the South. Sales in the Midwest slumped to 56,000 last month, the slowest pace since September 2015.

The supply of homes at the current sales rate declined to 6.3 months from 6.7 months in May.

The median sales price was little changed from a year earlier at $310,400.

Despite a collapse in mortgage rates, new home sales refuse to accelerate…

Time for a rate-cut then… because that has helped housing, right? Oh wait…

 end

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

With the suspension of the debt ceiling Snyder states the obvious: both Dems and Reps are both conspiring to bankrupt America and destroy its future..a good read…

(courtesy Michael Snyder)

It’s Over: Dems & Reps Both Conspiring To Bankrupt America And Destroy Our Future

Authored by Michael Snyder via The End of The American Dream blog,

Both major political parties are working together to destroy America’s financial future, and most Americans don’t seem to care.

Once upon a time, the Republicans were considered to be “the party of fiscal responsibility”, but now they are just as bad as the “free spending” Democrats.  As you will see below, a “compromise” budget deal was just reached which will dramatically increase federal spending and will suspend the federal debt limit until after the next election.  In other words, both sides are conspiring to make our debt problem much, much worse over the next year and a half, and this should be causing howls of outrage all across America.  But instead most Americans seem content to go along with the free spending ways of our political leaders, and only a handful of voices are sounding the alarm as we steamroll toward financial oblivion.

  • When Barack Obama was inaugurated on January 20th, 2009, the U.S. national debt was sitting at a grand total of $10,626,877,048,913.08.
  • Of course we proceeded to go on the greatest debt binge in the history of our nation, and when Obama’s two terms ended the U.S. national debt had risen to $19,947,304,555,212.49.
  • Then Donald Trump took office, and we have continued to rack up debt at a staggering pace.  In fact, at this moment the U.S. national debt is $22,023,119,533,123.43.

So over the last 10 and a half years, we have added just under 11.4 trillion dollars to our mountain of debt.  And when you break that down, that means that our politicians have been stealing more than 100 million dollars every single hour of every single day from future generations of Americans during the Trump/Obama era.

Unfortunately, things are about to get a lot worse.  It is being projected that “non-discretionary spending” will dramatically rise as Baby Boomers retire in unprecedented numbers this decade, and as a result our national debt will hit 30 trillion dollars not too long from now.  The following comes from a recent Forbes article

By the end of 2020, it will be approaching $25 trillion. And that doesn’t include state and local debt of $3 trillion plus their $6-trillion unfunded pension liabilities.

Note that all that is without a recession.

The unified deficit will easily hit $2 trillion and approach $2.5 trillion in the next recession. Within 2 to 3 years later, the total US debt will be at least $30 trillion.

This debt is an existential threat to our republic, and even without all of our other very serious problems it would be enough to bring us down all by itself.

But instead of trying to do something about it, our politicians just reached a “compromise” agreement that will dramatically increase spending

US President Donald Trump said Monday that a “compromise” bipartisan budget agreement has been reached that will boost federal spending by $320 billion and suspend the debt limit beyond the next presidential election.

The deal, should it pass Congress as expected, would allow the federal government to borrow more money and avoid a disastrous default in the coming months, while significantly raising budget caps on defense and domestic outlays.

I don’t know if I even have the words to describe how disgusted I am by all of this.

Of course swamp creatures such as Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell are simply thrilled about what just went down

“I am very encouraged that the administration and Speaker Pelosi have reached a two-year funding agreement that secures the resources we need to keep rebuilding our armed forces,” McConnell, R-Ky., said. “This was our top objective: Continuing to restore the readiness of our armed forces and modernize our military to deter and defend against growing threats to our national security. That includes investing in our facilities here at home, like Ft. Knox, Ft. Campbell, and the Blue Grass Army Depot, which my state of Kentucky is proud to host.”

He doesn’t seem the least bit ashamed of what he is doing to America.

There is no way that we are going to come back from a 30 trillion dollar debt.  It is the largest debt that any government has ever accumulated in the history of the world, and it threatens to destroy the bright future that our children and our grandchildren were supposed to have.

Thankfully, there are a few voices that are still brave enough to speak up.  One of them is Maya MacGuineas

“This agreement is a total abdication of fiscal responsibility by Congress and the president,” said Maya MacGuineas, president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a Washington advocacy group. “It may end up being the worst budget agreement in our nation’s history, proposed at a time when our fiscal conditions are already precarious.”

And after news of this budget deal broke, U.S. Representative Mark Walker posted an image of the Joker burning a huge pile of money

Rep. Mark Walker

@RepMarkWalker

Budget deal.

Embedded video

I really wish that we could be optimistic that things will change in the future, but if the Republicans and the Democrats both don’t care about our exploding national debt there truly is no hope, because we don’t have any other viable political options.  I made the national debt one of my core issues when I ran for Congress, but unfortunately the big Washington PACs came in with a ton of outside money and made sure that one of my opponents won.

Sadly, it isn’t just the U.S. that is drowning in debt.  According to the latest numbers, the total amount of debt in the world has hit a grand total of 246 trillion dollars

According to the latest IIF Global Debt Monitor released today, debt around the globe hit $246 trillion in Q1 2019, rising by $3 trillion in the quarter, and outpacing the rate of growth of the global economy as total debt/GDP rose to 320%

All of that debt can never be paid off under our current system.

In the end, the only thing that can be done is to keep increasing the size of the bubble until it inevitably bursts and the entire global economic system goes down in flames.

The borrower is the servant of the lender, and debt is being used to literally enslave the entire planet.

Humanity desperately needs to wake up, but right now there are not nearly enough people that are educating people about these matters.

END

Tech shares tumble after the Dept of Justice launches a huge antitrust review of all big tech corporations including Google, and Facebook.

(zerohedge)

Tech Stocks Tumble After DOJ Launches Broad Antitrust Review Of “Big Tech”

Just one week after the tech world’s most visible conservative and entrepreneur to back President Donald Trump, Peter Thiel, slammed “treasonous” Google for agreeing to work closely with China, trying to get its search engine back into the Chinese market, while deciding to let a US defense department contract that gave the military access to its artificial intelligence tools lapse, Thiel’s lament has made its way to the very top, and moments ago the WSJ reported that the DOJ was opening a broad antitrust review into whether dominant technology firms are unlawfully stifling competition, adding a new Washington threat for the FANGs

According to WSJ sources, the review is geared toward examining the practices of online platforms that dominate internet search, social media and retail services; the report notes that the new antitrust inquiry is “the strongest signal yet of Attorney General William Barr’s deep interest in the tech sector, and it could ratchet up the already considerable regulatory pressures facing the top U.S. tech firms.”

To be sure, the review, which is designed to go above and beyond recent plans for scrutinizing the tech sector that were crafted by the department and the Federal Trade Commission, has certainly spooked investors and the US mega tech names have promptly tumbled after hours, dragging the Nasdaq lower.

As the Journal adds, “the two agencies, which share antitrust enforcement authority, in recent months worked out which one of them would take the lead on exploring different issues involving the big-four tech giants. Those turf agreements caused a stir in the tech industry and rattled investors. Now, the new Justice Department review could amplify the risk, because some of those companies could face antitrust claims from both the Justice Department and the FTC.”

As we reported at the time, the FTC in February launched its own task force to monitor competition in the tech sector; that team’s work is ongoing.

Meanwhile, the DOJ will examine issues including how the most dominant tech firms have grown in size and might—and expanded their reach into additional businesses. The Justice Department also is interested in how Big Tech has leveraged the powers that come with having very large networks of users, government sources told the WSJ.

Moments after the WSJ report, the DOJ published a press release confirming, that “the Department of Justice announced today that the Department’s Antitrust Division is reviewing whether and how market-leading online platforms have achieved market power and are engaging in practices that have reduced competition, stifled innovation, or otherwise harmed consumers.”

The Department’s review will consider the widespread concerns that consumers, businesses, and entrepreneurs have expressed about search, social media, and some retail services online. The Department’s Antitrust Division is conferring with and seeking information from the public, including industry participants who have direct insight into  competition in online platforms, as well as others.

“Without the discipline of meaningful market-based competition, digital platforms may act in ways that are not responsive to consumer demands,” said Assistant Attorney General Mahan Delrahim of the Antitrust Division. “The Department’s antitrust review will explore these important issues.”

There a silver lining: according to the WSJ, unlike other government task forces which are, well, “tasked” in advance with a specific goal, there is no defined end-goal yet for the Big Tech review other than to understand whether there are antitrust problems that need addressing, but a broad range of options are on the table, and the “department’s inquiry could eventually lead to more focused investigations of specific company conduct,” officials said.

Meanwhile, in its own press release, the DOJ said that the goal of the Department’s review “is to assess the competitive conditions in the online  marketplace in an objective and fair-minded manner and to ensure Americans have access to free markets in which companies compete on the merits to provide services that users want. If violations of law are identified, the Department will proceed appropriately to seek redress.

Such as demanding break-ups.

In their defense, the Big Tech companies have said they are highly innovative firms that create jobs and provide products and services that consumers love. They have said they have rightly won their places at the top of the tech pyramid and have to compete fiercely to stay there.

But while the top tech firms were once the darlings of the public, attitudes have shifted as some consumers, and politicians on both the left and the right, have grown uncomfortable with how much power and influence they wield in the economy and society. As the WSJ notes, “some Democratic presidential candidates have called for the breakup of companies like Google and Facebook, while lawmakers of both parties have sounded alarm bells, though at times for different reasons. Some Republicans have voiced concerns about whether tech companies disfavor conservative voices, claims that industry leaders have denied.”

President Trump has escalated his criticisms of Big Tech recently, openly suggesting the U.S. ought to sue Google and Facebook, comments that could hang over the Justice Department’s new efforts.

Aside from Justice Department and FTC scrutiny, a House antitrust subcommittee also is taking a broad look at potential anticompetitive conduct in the tech sector. Executives from Facebook, Google, Apple and Amazon all testified before the panel last week. The seeds for the new Justice Department review were planted in January at Barr’s confirmation hearing, when he said that he believed antitrust issues in the tech sector were important.

“I don’t think big is necessarily bad, but I think a lot of people wonder how such huge behemoths that now exist in Silicon Valley have taken shape under the nose of the antitrust enforcers,” Mr. Barr told senators. “You can win that place in the marketplace without violating the antitrust laws, but I want to find out more about that dynamic.”

Justice Department officials said they would use the new antitrust review to seek extensive input and information from industry participants, and eventually from the dominant tech firms themselves. It isn’t yet known whether much of the information-gathering will be done on a voluntary basis or if companies eventually could be compelled by the government to turn over materials.

END

Tariffs are crippling the manufacturing of RV’s because of taxes on aluminium and steel

(zerohedge)

Trade War Chaos: Trump’s Tariffs Crash American RV Industry 

Trade war crosscurrents have damaged the American manufacturing sector, and within, a lot of stress is building up in the RV industry, according to discussions with industry insiders and economists, along with data showing a sharp sales decline amid increasing costs, reported Reuters.

The industry has taken a massive blow from President Trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminum and other retaliatory duties on thousands of Chinese-made RV parts, from electronics to LED lights to vinyl.

Domestic shipments of RVs to dealers have plummeted 22% in the first five months of this year, compared to the same period last year, after dropping 4% in 2018, according to the Recreational Vehicle Industry Association.

The RV industry’s crisis shows how President Trump’s trade war has backfired, hurting the industry he promised to protect.

Tariff-related price hikes have forced RV manufacturers to pass on costs to dealerships, which in turn the American consumer bears the brunt of the tariff, has slowed sales at dealers who are cutting orders and laying off workers.

Michael Hicks, a Ball State University economist who tracks the industry, warned that the collapse in RV shipments could indicate a wider economic downturn. Hicks said shipments had fallen sharply just before the last three U.S. recessions.

“The RV industry is a great bellwether of the economy,” said Hicks, because the vehicles are an expensive and discretionary purchase, easily delayed by consumers who start to worry about their financial stability.

Reuters suggests that the RV industry is headed for a significant consolidation after several years of expansion, led to new factories, has oversupplied the market.

Managers at RV manufacturers and suppliers said President Trump’s trade war is why the industry is now crashing.

“The tariff price increases are what tipped the RV business — it started the landslide, no question,” said Tom Bond, the materials and purchasing manager at Adnik Manufacturing, an Elkhart-based division of Norco Industries.

Thor Industries controls almost 50% of the North America RV market, reported its sales have dropped 23% in its fiscal third quarter, which ended in April, compared to a year ago. Production cuts and layoffs have been in full swing at some of Thor’s North American plants.

Thor assembler Demiris Jahmal Williams told Reuters his hours were cut, and his factory has been shut down through July.

“This is the worse I’ve seen it,” he said.

Michael Happe, CEO of Winnebago Industries Inc, said tariffs had forced RV manufacturers to increase costs to dealers.

While many American believe the RV industry is entirely American – that’s not the case when Reuters examined supply chains of RV manufacturers that extended into China. The industry relies heavily on imports for everything from air compressors, electronics, bedding fabrics, lighting, and flooring.

And according to Hick’s comments, the next recession may have already arrived with crashing RV shipments spurred by a trade war.

Any rate cut today is three quarters too late, the downturn has already begun.

end

Mnuchin blasts two specific areas for “destroying’ the USA retail industry:

1. Bitcoin

2. Bezos of Amazon

(zerohedge)

Mnuchin Bashes Bitcoin, Blasts Bezos For “Destroying” US Retail Industry

On an already busy Wednesday that featured not only a series of critical earnings reports but the long-awaited Congressional testimony of Special Counsel Robert Mueller, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin returned to CNBC for the second time in a week to offer an update on trade talks with China.

But his comments on China were hardly the most interesting thing the Treasury Secretary said on Wednesday: He also offered perhaps his harshest criticism of Amazon yet.

There’s no question they’ve limited competition,” Mnuchin said.

If you look at Amazon, although there are certain benefits to it, it destroyed the retail industry across the United States, so there’s no question they’ve limited competition.”

He added that the DOJ was “absolutely right” to look into antitrust issues involving US tech firms.

Mnuchin’s remarks came less than a day after the latest update on the DOJ’s efforts to hold America’s largest tech firms responsible for anti-competitive practices.

Weighing in on Peter Thiel’s accusation that Google should be investigated for treason over its work with the Chinese government (which was taking place as the company severed its ties with the DoD over pressure from its employees, Mnuchin said he was
not aware of Google working with the Chinese govt in any way that raises concerns.”

The interview later returned to the subject of cryptocurrencies (the focus of Mnuchin’s last interview with CNBC). Mnuchin joked that he wouldn’t be investing in bitcoin any time soon.

Squawk Box

@SquawkCNBC

“I can assure you I will personally not be loaded up on bitcoin” in 10 years, says Treasury Secretary Mnuchin

Embedded video

We imagine we’ll be hearing more from the Secretary in the coming days as he prepares to head to Beijing for the next round of talks with his Chinese counterparts.

Watch the full interview below:

Watch Treasury Secretary Mnuchin’s full interview on trade, Big Tech and more from CNBC.

iv) Swamp commentaries)

Mueller befuddled and it looks like he did not even know basic facts of his report.  The Democrats are reeling..the USA public finally get a rel glimpse as to what really went on.

(zerohedge)

Michael Moore Joins Chorus Of Defeated Democrats Panning “Frail, Forgetful” Mueller Testimony

Robert Mueller’s dual Wednesday testimonies were, by most accounts, atotal disaster for Democrats hoping to bolster the case for impeaching President Trump. 

Not only were there no smoking guns, Mueller’s stumbling, fumbling, confused performance alone was a massive backfire for Democrats looking to spotlight the former FBI Director – whose ‘stellar reputation’ as a career public servant melted away to reveal a befuddled old man who was clearly unfamiliar with his own report.

Mollie

@MZHemingway

Robert Mueller literally just said he wasn’t familiar with Fusion GPS. My Lord. My Lord.

MATT DRUDGE@DRUDGE

Drug test everyone in Washington. Everyone!

View image on Twitter

Don’t take our word for it. Filmmaker Michael Moore perfectly captures the somber tone amongst Democrats panning Mueller’s Wednesday performance.

“frail old man, unable to remember things, stumbling, refusing to answer basic questions…I said it in 2017 and Mueller confirmed it today,” tweeted Moore, adding “All you pundits and moderates and lame Dems who told the public to put their faith in the esteemed Robert Mueller — just STFU from now on.”

Michael Moore

@MMFlint

A frail old man, unable to remember things, stumbling, refusing to answer basic questions…I said it in 2017 and Mueller confirmed it today — All you pundits and moderates and lame Dems who told the public to put their faith in the esteemed Robert Mueller — just STFU from now on

Moore was joined by the likes of Chuck Todd, Michael Isikoff, and NeverTrumper Bill Kristol.

Meet the Press

@MeetThePress

WATCH: Did Democrats get a dramatic moment from Robert Mueller’s testimony this morning?

“On substance, Democrats got what they wanted,” says @chucktodd
“On optics, this was a disaster.”

Embedded video

“On optics, this was a disaster,” tweeted Todd.

Chuck Todd

@chucktodd

On substance, Democrats got what they wanted: that Mueller didn’t charge Pres. Trump because of the OLC guidance, that he could be indicted after he leaves office, among other things. But on optics, this was a disaster.

“Impeachment’s over,” said ANC News Senior National Correspondent Terry Moran.

Ryan Saavedra

@RealSaavedra

ABC News Senior National Correspondent Terry Moran on Democrats’ Robert Mueller hearing: “impeachment’s over”

Embedded video

CNN’s Oliver Darcey tweeted “Seems pretty clear at this point that Mueller is not the best spokesperson for his own report.”

Oliver Darcy

@oliverdarcy

Seems pretty clear at this point that Mueller is not the best spokesperson for his own report.

Yahoo News’ resident deep state conduit Michael Isikoff even agreed, “Mueller seems increasingly befuddled.”

Michael Isikoff

@Isikoff

Mueller seems increasingly befuddled.

Even NeverTrumper Bill Kristol struggled to find a silver lining.

Bill Kristol

@BillKristol

These could both be true: Robert Mueller isn’t a dazzling or dynamic or even a particularly compelling witness at a congressional hearing; and his report, along with his testimony, is entirely truthful and damning.

White House counsel Jay Sekulow sums it up:

Jay Sekulow

@JaySekulow

THREAD: Statement from Jay Sekulow, Counsel to the President:

“This morning’s testimony exposed the troubling deficiencies of the Special Counsel’s investigation. The testimony revealed that this probe was conducted by a small group of politically-biased prosecutors…

Jay Sekulow

@JaySekulow

…who, as hard as they tried, were unable to establish either obstruction, conspiracy, or collusion between the Trump campaign and Russia. It is also clear that the Special Counsel conducted his two-year investigation unimpeded.

Jay Sekulow

@JaySekulow

The American people understand that this issue is over. They also understand that the case is closed.”

END

Interesting read…Deutsche bank flagged Jefferey Epstein’s overseas transactions for sex trafficking.  They alerted the authorities but they still did transactions for him

(zerohedge)

Deutsche Bank Flagged Jeffrey Epstein Overseas Transactions For Suspected Sex-Trafficking

Deutsche Bank uncovered suspicious transactions in which Jeffrey Epstein moved money out of the United States, according to the New York Times.

The bank reported the transactions to a federal agency in charge of policing financial crimes after the bank began to look for signs that Epstein was using his funds for sex trafficking, according to the report.

Epstein is said to have moved his moey to Deutsche Bank’s private-banking division after JP Morgan Chase cut ties with himn in 2013, five years after he pleaded guilty to state prostitution charges – one of which involved a minor.

Deutsche Bank executives are still trying to understand the depth and scope of the bank’s relationship with Mr. Epstein, who has been a client of its private-banking division since at least 2013 — years after his conduct became public in a prostitution case involving a teenage girl.

Deutsche Bank has been contacted by prosecutors and other government authorities investigating Mr. Epstein. Joerg Eigendorf, a Deutsche Bank spokesman, said the bank was “absolutely committed to cooperating with all relevant authorities.” –New York Times

Following a series of investigative reports by the Miami Herald earlier this year, Deutsche Bank followed suit, severing ties with the wealthy financier. Doing so proved difficult for the bank, as its antiquated systems. “On a number of occasions, Deutsche Bank executives had thought they had shut down all of Mr. Epstein’s accounts, only to learn that there were others that they had not previously been aware of,” according to the Times. By late spring, there were still transactions occurring in Epstein’s Deutsche Bank accounts, however company officials now believe they have closed them all down.

Epstein, who is currently sitting in a Manhattan jail cell pending trial, has been accused of operating a sex-trafficking ring involving dozens of victims – some as young as 14.

He has a byzantine network of businesses and personal holdings, which include real estate, an island and private planes valued at more than $500 million. –New York Times

Deutsche Bank first flagged Epstein’s accounts in 2015 and 2016, after anti-money laundering compliance officers in the bank’s New York and Jacksonville, FL offices raised a wide spectrum of concerns over the bank’s relationship with the financier.

The employees were concerned that the bank’s reputation could be harmed if it became public that Mr. Epstein was a client, according to the people familiar with the internal processes.

In addition, the compliance officers on at least one occasion noticed potentially illegal activity in one of Mr. Epstein’s accounts, including transactions in which money was moving outside the United States, the people said. The compliance officers produced a so-called suspicious activity report, but it is unclear whether the report was ever filed with the Treasury Department’s financial-crimes division.

Despite the compliance officers’ misgivings, the bank continued to do extensive business with Mr. Epstein. –New York Times

“We’re still trying to get our arms around it,” said a bank employee.

 

END

 

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

Boris Johnson will succeed Theresa May as British Prime Minister today.  Yesterday, he overwhelming won the vote of Conservative Party members against Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt. Johnson, the former Mayor of London, is an avid supporter of Brexit.  He is committed to exiting the EU by October 31.

Any minute now, those years of preventive rate cuts, preventive QQE and preventive monetization of equity ETFs will take effect in Japan.

Nissan to cut over 10,000 Jobs Globally: Kyodo

UBS CEO Warns of ‘Dangerous’ Bubbles Spurred by Central Banks

“I’d be very, very careful about growing further the balance sheet of central banks,’’ Sergio Ermotti said in a Bloomberg TV interview on Tuesday, ahead of the European Central Bank’s policy decision this week. “We are at a risk of creating an asset bubble.”…

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-23/ubs-ceo-warns-of-dangerous-bubbles-spurred-by-central-banks

@dlacalle_IA: 80% probability of a 25bps Fed rate cut and 20% of a 50 bps cut on July 31st.  A completely unnecessary rate cut designed to inflate the financial asset bubble, with no fundamental justification (2% core CPI, 3.6% unemployment, 2.5% est GDP growth)

Justice Department to Open Broad, New Antitrust Review of Big Tech Companies – Barr’s deep interest in tech sector, poses threat to companies such as Facebook, Google, Amazon, Apple

https://www.wsj.com/articles/justice-department-to-open-broad-new-antitrust-review-of-big-tech-companies-11563914235

Today – Barring strikingly bad news, traders will buy dips and chase upside breakouts because irrationally exuberance is at a new high on expectations of more and new ECB stimuli tomorrow – and the expected Fed rate cut next week.  There is no reason to over-think what is occurring now.  Next week, after the FOMC decision, the final days of Q2 results and July performance, decisions should be made.

@OANN: Robert Mueller will testify alongside his legal counsel and his longtime aide Aaron Zebley after a last-minute request to have Zebley appear as a witness during the hearing.

@realDonaldTrump: Just got back only to hear of a last minute change allowing a Never Trumper attorney to help Robert Mueller with his testimony before Congress tomorrow. What a disgrace to our system. Never heard of this before. VERY UNFAIR, SHOULD NOT BE ALLOWED. A rigged Witch Hunt!

On Monday, the DoJ issued a letter that Mueller’s testimony at the House Intel and Judiciary Committees will be confined to his report.  The usual suspects screamed and whined that the DoJ was interfering with the hearings.  Yesterday, Ag Barr asserted that Mueller requested the letter.  At the 11th hour on Tuesday, Mueller requested that he be allowed to bring his long-time aide with him.  What does Mueller fear?

John Solomon: Robert Mueller soon may be exposed as the ‘magician of omission’ on Russia

Special prosecutor John Durham’s team quietly reached out this summer to a lawyer representing European academic Joseph Mifsud, one of the earliest and most mysterious figures in the now closed Russia-collusion case… The contact, confirmed by multiple sources and contemporaneous email, sent an unmistakable message: Durham, the U.S. attorney handpicked by Attorney General William Barr to determine whether the FBI committed abuses during the Russia investigation, is taking a second look at one of the noteworthy figures and the conclusions of special counsel Robert Mueller’s final report

The evidence I reviewed suggests Mueller’s handiwork may be exposed for glaring omissions…

Mueller’s portrayal of the Mifsud-Papadopoulos contacts doesn’t add up.  Roh told me the information he is preparing to share with Durham’s team from his client will accentuate those concerns…

    The evidence, he told me, “clearly indicates that this was not only a surveillance op but a more sophisticated intel operation” in which Mifsud became involved.  Roh has defended Mifsud in the media against various allegations, steadfastly denying Mueller’s claim that his client ever told Papadopoulos about Clinton emails in Russia [This was the excuse to start investigating DJT!]

https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/454409-robert-mueller-soon-may-be-exposed-as-the-magician-of-omission-on-russia

Rush Limbaugh and other pundits speculate that Mueller was just a figurehead.  The get-Trump cabal, namely Weissmann, did the scheme. Mueller’s name was used for credibility.

You can’t make this up!  The NY Editorial Board [7/21] wants DJT to forge closer ties with Russia.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/21/opinion/russia-china-trump.html?smid=tw-nytopinion&smtyp=cur

Sanders White House Campaign Hit with Federal Labor Complaint

Sen. Bernie Sanders’ (I-Vt.) 2020 presidential campaign has been hit with an unfair labor practice complaint alleging illegal employee interrogation and retaliation against staffers

https://news.bloomberglaw.com/daily-labor-report/sanders-white-house-campaign-hit-with-federal-labor-complaint

Senator and Dem Presidential Candidate Cory Booker: Sometimes I feel like punching ‘physically weak’ Donald Trump [Where’s media and GOP outrage?  What if DJT said this about a Dem?]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/cory-booker-sometimes-i-feel-like-punching-physically-weak-donald-trump-2019-07-23

People are losing their minds at an increasing rate.

Newsweek: Ivanka Trump Mocked For Giving ‘All White’ Dog to Her Daughter

https://www.newsweek.com/ivanka-trump-dog-white-winter-daughter-gift-twitter-1450493

People are furious ‘Cats’ star Francesca Hayward has white fur

The leading kitty in the new live-action “Cats” film is played by a black woman — but you wouldn’t know it by looking at her fur…Hayward’s character, Victoria, is a white kitten in the original Andrew Lloyd Webber musical, but many are complaining that this is arbitrary and could have easily been changed…

https://nypost.com/2019/07/19/people-are-furious-cats-star-francesca-hayward-has-white-fur/

If all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail.” – Proverb about confirmation bias

Well that is all for today

I WILL PROVIDE A WORK IN PROGRESS FOR TOMORROW AS I WILL BE OUT FOR MOST OF THE DAY

I WILL UPDATE AND FINALIZE AT NIGHT.

I will see you THURSDAY night.

 

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