NOV 11//GOLD DOWN $5.70 TO $1456.50 AND SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TO $16.84 ON ANOTHER RAID DAY//OPEN INTEREST IN GOLD REMAINS QUITE ELEVATED//HUGE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL DAY FOR GOLD//PROTESTS CONTINUE IN HONG KONG WITH ONE PROTESTER SHOT//COUP IN BOLIVIA/BANK RUN IN LEBANON AS CITIZENS STORM THE BANKS WITH GUNS//NIGEL FARAGE CHANGES TUNE AND NOW WILL RUN ONLY IN SEATS NOT HELD BY CONSERVATIVES //SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT////

GOLD:$1456.6 DOWN $5.70    (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

 

 

 

 

 

Silver:$16,84 DOWN 3 CENTS  (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Closing access prices:

 

 

 

 

Gold :  $1456.00

 

silver:  $16.86

 

COMEX DATA

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING:  25/30

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: NOVEMBER 2019 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,461.300000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 11/08/2019 DELIVERY DATE: 11/12/2019
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
152 C DORMAN TRADING 10
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 1
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 1
661 C JP MORGAN 25
737 C ADVANTAGE 12 4
905 C ADM 7
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 30 30
MONTH TO DATE: 1,285

 

we are coming very close to a commercial failure!!

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  NOV CONTRACT: 30 NOTICE(S) FOR 3000 OZ (0.4167 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  1285 NOTICES FOR 128500 OZ  (3.9968 TONNES)

 

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR NOV

 

 

30 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 150,000  OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month: 478 for 2,390,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

 

 

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE :  $ 8702 DOWN 339 

 

 

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $ 8744 down 296

 

 

 

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

IN SILVER THE COMEX OI FELL BY A STRONG  SIZED 3582 CONTRACTS FROM 227,524 DOWN TO 223,942 ACCOMPANYING THE 19 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//FRIDAY.

TODAY WE ARRIVED FURTHER FROM  AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A HUMONGOUS SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:,

FOR NOV 0,; DEC  4753 AND, MARCH: 49  AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  4802 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 4802 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 4802 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 24.01 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 19 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

7.665     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

 

YESTERDAY WAS THE 8TH DAY IN A ROW THAT THE BANKERS TRIED TO CONTAIN THE PRICE OF SILVER.  THEY TRIED TO COVER THEIR MASSIVE SHORTFALL WITH ANOTHER MASSIVE RAID  AS THEY AGAIN USED HUGE COPIOUS NON BACKED PAPER IN THEIR SUCCESSFUL ENDEAVOUR TO WHACK SILVER’S PRICE ( IT FELL 19 CENTS ). OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS HOWEVER WERE AGAIN UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE  SILVER LONGS AS THE TOTAL GAIN IN OI ON BOTH EXCHANGES TOTALED A GOOD 1220 CONTRACTS. OR 6.10 MILLION OZ..THE RAID FAILED MISERABLY AGAIN..RAIDS ARE SIMPLY FUTILE

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF NOV:

19,473 CONTRACTS (FOR 7 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 19,473 CONTRACTS) OR 97.37 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 2781 CONTRACTS OR 13.909 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF AUGUST:  97.37 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 10.48% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          1852.06   MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2019 EFP TOTALS:                                                      217.455. MILLION OZ

FEB 2019 TOTALS:                                                                       147.4     MILLION OZ/

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                          207.835 MILLION OZ

APRIL 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                              182.87  MILLION OZ.

MAY 2019: TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                136.55 MILLION OZ

JUNE 2019 , TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                               265.38 MILLION OZ

JULY 2019   TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                175.74 MILLION OZ

AUG. 2019  TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;                                                 216.47 MILLION OZ

SEPT 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE                                                  174.900 MILLION OZ

OCTOBER 2019 ISSUANCE:                                                           146.14 MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A CONSIDERABLE SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 2338, WITH THE 19 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /YESTERDAY... THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A  HUMONGOUS SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 4802 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

 

TODAY WE GAINED A STRONG SIZED: 2564 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 

i.e 4802 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH DECREASE OF 2238  OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 19 CENT LOSS IN PRICE OF SILVER AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $16.87 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY!! 

 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.126 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 161% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT MARCH MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 30 NOTICE(S) FOR 150,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.78.  

 

.

 

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 10.025 MILLION OZ/ SEPT 43.030 MILLION OZ//OCT: 7.665 MILLION OZ//   
  2.  THE  RECORD WAS SET IN AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78//.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A GOOD SIZED 5,383 CONTRACTS, MOVING SLIGHTLY FROM OUR NEW ALL TIME RECORD  OF 708,244 SET FRIDAY NOV 8/2019. THE LOSS OCCURRED WITH THAT  $5.70 PRICING LOSS WITH RESPECT TO COMEX GOLD PRICING RAID// YESTERDAY// / THE OPEN INTEREST RESTS AT 702,861

 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A HUGE SIZED 13,048 CONTRACTS:

NOV 2019: 0 CONTRACTS, DEC>  9519 CONTRACTS; FEB 3529 CONTRACTS, AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 702,861,,.  ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE AN ATMOSPHERIC AND CRIMINALLY SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 7665 CONTRACTS: 5383 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX  AND 13,048 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 7665 CONTRACTS OR 766,500 OZ OR 23.84 TONNES.  FRIDAY WE HAD A LOSS OF $5.50 IN GOLD TRADING….

AND WITH THAT LOSS IN  PRICE, WE  HAD A HUGE GAIN IN GOLD TONNAGE OF 23.84  TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS/OFFICIAL SECTOR WERE SUPPLYING INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER WITH RECKLESS ABANDON AS ANOTHER RAID WAS INITIATED. THE BANKERS WERE VERY SUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE (DOWN $5.50) .THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING  GOLD LONGS FROM THE GOLD ARENA. 

 

 

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR SILVER..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR GOLD.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEWCOMERS HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO GOLD AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCTOBER FOR GOLD.

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF NOV BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN GOLD WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (DEC), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.” 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF NOV : 87,680 CONTRACTS OR 8,768,000 oz OR 272.21 TONNES (7 TRADING DAY AND THUS AVERAGING: 12,526 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 7 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 272.21 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 272.21/3550 x 100% TONNES =7.66% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     5364.27  TONNES

JANUARY 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;   531.20 TONNES

FEB 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:             344.36 TONNES

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:       497.16 TONNES

APRIL 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                 456.10 TONNES

MAY 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    449.10 TONNES

JUNE 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                   642.22 TONNES

JULY 2019: TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    591.56 TONNES

AUG. 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    639.62 TONNES

SEPT 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE               174.900 MILLION OZ

OCTOBER 2019 ISSUANCE:                         146.14 MILLION OZ

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

Result: A GOOD SIZED DECREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 5383 WITH THE  PRICING LOSS THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK FRIDAY($5.50)) //.WE, HOWEVER, ALSO HAD  A HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 13,048 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 13,048 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE  HAD AN ATMOSPHERIC  AND CRIMINALLY SIZED GAIN OF 7665 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

13,048 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 5383 CONTRACTS DECREASEDAT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 23.84 TONNES). ..AND THIS HUGE INCREASE OF  DEMAND OCCURRED DESPITE THE LOSS IN PRICE OF $5.50 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX.

THE COMEX IS NOW UNDER FULL ASSAULT WITH RESPECT TO GOLD AND SILVER.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

we had: 30 notice(s) filed upon for 3000 oz of gold at the comex.

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

 

.

WITH GOLD DOWN $5.70 TODAY//(COMEX-TO COMEX)

NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//

NOV 11/2019/ Inventory rests tonight at 901.19 tonnes

 

 

SLV/

 

WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: 

 

NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.172 MILLION OZ

 

 

 

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

 

 

end

 

OUTLINE OF TOPICS TONIGHT

 

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 3582 CONTRACTS from 227,524 DOWN TO 223,942 AND FURTHER FROM A  NEW COMEX RECORD.  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

 

 

 

 

EFP ISSUANCE: 

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 FOR NOV. 0; FOR DEC  4753: MARCH 49   AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 4802 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE OI LOSS AT THE COMEX OF 3582CONTRACTS TO THE 4802 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN AN ATMOSPHERIC AND CRIMINALLY SIZED GAIN OF 1220 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 6.10 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL  18.765 MILLION OZ FOR MAY  NOW 2.660 MILLION OZ FOR JUNE WITH JULY AT 22.605 MILLION OZ AUGUST AT 10.025 MILLION OZ//  SEPT: 43.030 MILLION OZ///OCT: 7.665 MILLION OZ//

 

 

RESULT: A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE 19 CENT GAIN IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// FRIDAY. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED 4802 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)MONDAY MORNING/ SUNDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 54.21 POINTS OR 1.83%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 724.59 POINTS OR 2.62%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 60.03 POINTS OR 0.26%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .64%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 7.0094 /Oil DOWN TO 56.511 dollars per barrel for WTI and 61.88 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.0094 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0100 TRADE TALKS STALL///TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

 

3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

 

3b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3C  CHINA

i)China is not doing to good as auto sales fall 6% in October..the global auto recession is picking up speed

(zerohedge)

ii)China

Pork hyperinflation is sending the Chinese consumer price index soaring
(zerohedge)
iii)Hong Kong
This sent the Hang Sang down 700 points as a protester was shot by police during moring clashes.
(zerohedge)

iv )Hong Kong

This sent the Hang Sang down 700 points as a protester was shot by police during moring clashes.
(zerohedge)

v)Late this Morning/China

This is not good for global growth: China’s credit creation unexpectedly collapses
(zerohedge)

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)UK/Saturday

Moody’s downgrades the UK on a negative outlook for Brexit

(zerohedge)

ii)European bond markets are breaking as yields skyrocket.  We now have the insane with Greece yields less than Italy.

(zerohedge)
iii)UK
Britain’s economy basically grinds to a halt
zerohedge)

iv)Bill Blain highlights too companies that are too big to fail: Boeing and HSBC

a good read…

(zerohedge)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

i)LEBANON

Last week Lebanon finally opened their banks with limited withdrawals and no exchange for foreign currency. Now citizens are storming the banks demanding their deposits

(zerohedge)

ii)IRAN

IRAN just announces a new oil field which advances its reserves by 1/3.  The discovery is approximately 53 billion barrels of oil
(zerohedge)
iii)Iran
this will certainly bother the USA and Israel
(zerohedge)

6.Global Issues

 

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

i)BRAZIL

Brazil’s leftist Lula freed on a Supreme Court ruling

(zerohedge)

ii)BOLIVIA

Chaos in Bolivia after Morales resigns and he claims he is the victim of a military coup. Bolivia will now go more left??

(zerohedge)

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)Bundesbank denies any increase in gold reserves

(GATA)

ii)Macleod on Kingworldnews describes the relentless pounding of paper gold is not discouraging buyers..they are just switching to real gold..physical.

(Kingworldnews/McLeod)

iii)The Russians and Danske bank realize that paper is only paper as they seek the true money–physical gold.

(Bloomberg)/gata

iv)I agree with Von Greyerz, that the paper gold market cannot survive its extreme leverage

(Kingworldnews/Von Greyerz)

v)Turkey’s central bank largest gold buyer in Q3 with 71.4 tons

During the 3rd quarter Turkey recorded a massive 71.4 tonnes of physical gold. This was added to its official reserves which now stands at 386 tonnes. Interestingly enough Turkey has been short of dollars and yet they are purchasing gold.  China has lent them billions of dollars.

(DAILY SABAH)ISTANBUL

10. important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

a)This is interesting: McKinsey is a huge company with a lot of brain power.  They are now under criminal investigation as to how they are advising bankrupt companies

(zerohedge)

b)Another sign of a deteriorating economy: Manhattan’s retail sector is imploding just before the holiday season

(zerohedge)

iv) Swamp commentaries)

a)Nunes wants Schiff to testify .  Also the whistleblower, Ciaramella and Hunter Biden..

fat chance that this will occur.

(zerohedge)

b)My goodness: the visitor logs reveal that our famous whistleblower Eric Ciaramella visited Obama’s white House multiple times.

(zerohedge/Sara Carter)
c)A good one..Jeff Charles believes that the Durham investigation will sink the impeachment efforts(Jeff Charles)

 

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

 

LET US BEGIN:

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A GOOD SIZED 5383 CONTRACTS TO A LEVEL OF 705,190 ACCOMPANYING THE LOSS OF $5.50 IN GOLD PRICING WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S // COMEX TRADING)

WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED HUMONGOUS SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 13,048 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

 FOR NOV; 0 CONTRACTS: DEC: 9519, FEB 3519AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  13,048 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 7665 TOTALCONTRACTS IN THAT 13,048 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE LOSTA STRONG SIZED 5383 COMEX CONTRACTS.

THE BANKERS SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY AND INFINITE AMOUNT OF SHORT PAPER IN GOLD.  THE BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE WITH THE RAID INITIATED, AS IT FELL BY $5.50. HOWEVER, JUDGING BY THE STRENGTH IN GAIN OF OUR TOTAL OI CONTRACTS, THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN THE ENDEAVOUR TO FLEECE ANY UNSUSPECTING LONGS. 

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ::  7665 CONTRACTS OR 766500 OZ 23.84 TONNES.

We are now in the active contract month of NOV.  This month is generally the poorest delivery month of the year as most players prefer to go straight to the big active delivery month of December. Today we have a strong 261 contracts still standing for a loss of 121 contracts.  Yesterday we had 134 notices served upon so we GAINED of 13 contracts or an additional 1300 oz will  stand as these guys refuse to  morph into London based forwards as well as negating a fiat bonus.

 

 

 

The next active delivery month after Nov is the  active contract month of December. Here we saw a loss of 20,727 contracts down to 424,329.  The non active delivery month of January saw a gain of 15 contracts up to 405.  The next big active delivery month after December is February and here that month picked up 14,688 contracts to stand at 180,596 contracts.

WE WILL NO DOUBT HAVE CONSIDERABLE FIREWORKS IN DECEMBER AS THE FRONT MONTH IS STILL EXCEEDING HIGH. DECEMBER IS THE STRONGEST DELIVERY MONTH OF THE YEAR FOR GOLD AND FOR THAT MATTER SILVER AS WELL.

 

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NOTICES FILED:

WE HAD 30 NOTICES FILED TODAY AT THE COMEX FOR  3000 OZ. (0.0933 TONNES)

 

 

 

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And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total COMEX silver OI FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 3582CONTRACTS FROM 227,524 DOWN TO 223,942 (AND FURTHER FROM THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S CONSIDERABLE  OI COMEX LOSS OCCURRED WITH A 19 CENT LOSS IN PRICING.//FRIDAY.

WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOVEMBER. HERE WE WITNESS A GAIN OF 27 CONTRACTS UP TO 30. WE HAD 3 CONTACTS SERVED UPON FRIDAY SO GAINED 30 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 150,000 OZ WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY OF THIS SIDE OF THE POND. THESE GUYS ALSO, BY STANDING FOR METAL AT THE COMEX, REFUSED TO MORPH TO LONDON AND THUS NEGATED A FIAT BONUS.

 

AFTER NOVEMBER WE HAVE THE  ACTIVE MONTH OF DECEMBER AND HERE THE OI FELL BY 8993 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 135,413. THE NEXT NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JANUARY SAW IT LOSE 342 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 431.

THE FRONT MONTH OF DECEMBER IS ALSO HIGHLY ELEVATED AND WE SHOULD SEE FIREWORKS IN THE SILVER ARENA AS WELL.

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

We, today, had 3 notice(s) filed for 15,000, OZ for the OCT, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 346,221  CONTRACTS 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  537,709  contracts

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  NOV/GOLD

NOV 11/2019

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
49,465.294 oz
HSBC
Int. Delaware
Scotia
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz NIL oz

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

nil

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
30 notice(s)
 3000 OZ
(0.0933 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
231 contracts
(23100 oz)
0.718 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
1285 notices
128500 OZ
3.9968 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 0 dealer entry:

We had 0 kilobar entries

 

 

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

 

we had 0 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan:  nil oz

 

ii) Into everybody else: 0  oz

 

 

 

total gold deposits: nil  oz

 

very little gold arrives from outside/ Today  zero amount  arrived

 

we had 3 gold withdrawal from the customer account:

i) Out of Scotia:  3692.03 oz

ii) Out of Int. Delaware:  6,402.150 oz

iii) Out of Scotia;  3,692.03

total: 49,465.294 oz

 

We had 0 adjustments and this is what I look for as a settlement:

 

 

 

FOR THE NOV 2019 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 30 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 25 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the NOV /2019. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (1255) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  NOV (382 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (134 x 100 oz per contract) equals 150,300 OZ OR 4.6749 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this  active month of OCT

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the NOV/2019 contract month:

No of notices served (1255 x 100 oz)  + (382)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today 134 x (100 oz )which equals 150,300 oz standing OR 4.6749 TONNES in this  active delivery month of NOV

We LOST 130  contracts OR 13,000 ADDITIONAL OZ WILL NOT STAND AS THESE GUYS MORPHED INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS AS I GUESS THERE WAS NO METAL TO BE FOUND ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND.

 

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES.… WE HAVE ONLY 35.696 TONNES OF REGISTERED

HERE IS WHAT STOOD DURING THESE PAST 4 MONTHS:  AUGUST 27.153 TONNES

SEPT:      5.4525 TONNES

 

OCT…………………………………………………………………………..     OCT…..   37.99 TONNES

AND NOW NOV……                                                                4.6749 tonnes

 

IN THE PAST 4 DAYS NO GOLD ENTERED OR WAS WITHDRAWN FROM REGISTERED COMEX GOLD

 

ACCORDING TO COMEX RULES:

FOR A SETTLEMENT YOU NEED A TRANSFER FROM THE DEALER (REGISTERED) ACCOUNT OVER TO AN ELIGIBLE ACCOUNT. FOR THE  ENTIRE MONTH OF AUGUST WE HAD O TRANSACTIONS ON THIS FRONT, IN SEPT, 3 TRANSACTIONS FOR 2.60155 TONNES. IF WE INCLUDE THE PAST FEW DAYS OF SETTLEMENTS WE HAVE 4.127 TONNES SETTLED

IF WE ADD THE FOUR DELIVERY MONTHS: 75.2704

TONNES- 4.128 TONNES DEEMED SETTLEMENT = 71.53 TONNES STANDING FOR METAL AGAINST 34.23 TONNES OF REGISTERED OR FOR SALE COMEX GOLD! THIS IS WHY GOLD IS SCARCE AT THE COMEX.

 

total registered or dealer gold:  1,100,772.542 oz or  34.23 tonnes 
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   8,328,939.88 oz 259.06 tonnes
WHY ARE THEY NOT SETTLING?
THE COMEX IS AN ABSOLUTE FRAUD..WE HAVE ZERO SETTLEMENTS.

IN THE LAST 36 MONTHS 103 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX 
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.

WHY ARE THEY NOT SETTLING?

 

THE COMEX IS AN ABSOLUTE FRAUD..WE HAVE ZERO SETTLEMENTS.

end

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV.

INITIAL  standings/SILVER

IN TOTAL CONTRAST TO GOLD, HUGE ACTIVITY IN SILVER TODAY.
NOV 11 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 711,120.367 oz
CNT
Brinks

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
nil oz
No of oz served today (contracts)
30
CONTRACT(S)
(150,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
0 contracts
 NIL oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  478 contracts

2,390,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

**

 

 

 

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

 

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil  oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

i)we had  0 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:   NIL  OZ

 

ii) Into everybody else: 0  oz

 

 

 

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 161.1 million oz of  total silver inventory or 51.11% of all official comex silver. (161.1 million/314.6 million

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  nil  oz

 

we had 2 withdrawals out of the customer account:
i) Out of Brinks: 641,330.690 oz
ii) Out of CNT; 69,789.677 oz

 

total withdrawals; 711,120.367  oz

We had 0 adjustments:

 

 

 

total dealer silver:  78.511 million

total dealer + customer silver:  314.465 million oz

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The total number of notices filed today for the NOV 2019. contract month is represented by 30 contract(s) FOR 150,000 oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in NOV, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 478 x 5,000 oz = 2,390,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of NOV. (30) and the number of notices served upon today 30 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the NOV/2019 contract month: 478 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of NOV (30)- number of notices served upon today (30) x 5000 oz equals 2,390,000 oz of silver standing for the NOV contract month. 

WE GAINED 30 contracts or an additional 150,000 oz of silver will stand at the comex as they guys refused to morph into London based forwards. For the past several weeks we have been witnessing queue jumping in both gold and silver.

 

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN:  THE COMEX IS UNDER ASSAULT FOR BOTH PHYSICAL GOLD AND SILVER WITH SILVER IN THE LEAD BY FAR. DESPITE  MASSIVE RAIDS, LONGS CONTINUE WITH THEIR HUNT AT THE COMEX FOR PHYSICAL METAL.. IT WILL NOT BE LONG BEFORE WE WITNESS A COMMERCIAL FAILURE..STAY TUNED..WE WITNESSED CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING IN SILVER TODAY AND AN ATTEMPTED BANKER SHORT COVERING IN GOLD WITH ZERO SUCCESS.

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 30 notice(s) filed for 105,000 OZ for the OCT, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME:  104,881 CONTRACTS

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 162,065 CONTRACTS..

WHAT AN ABSOLUTE FRAUD!!

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 162,065 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 810 million  OZ 115% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..makes sense!!

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

 

 

end

 

 

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NPV for Sprott

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV RISES TO -1.34% ((NOV 8/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -0.86% to NAV (NOV 8/2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ -1.34%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 14.51 TRADING 14.00///DISCOUNT 3.52

 

 

 

END

 

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

NOV 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.70 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 901.19 TONNES

NOV 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.50 TODAY: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL  OF 13.19 PAPER TONNES OF GOLD  INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 901.19 TONNES

NOV 7/2019 WITH GOLD DOWN $35.55 TODAY: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.38 TONNES

NOV 6/2019  WITH GOLD UP $8.70 TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.18 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.85 TONNES

NOV 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $26.00//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.67 TONNES

NOV 4/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.75 TODAY: A CONSIDERABLE WITHDRAWAL OF .88 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 914,67 TONNES

NOV 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.90 TODAY/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.55 TONNES

OCT 31/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD

OCT.30 WITH GOLD UP 5.50 TODAY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.93 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 915,55 TONNES

OCT 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 918.48 TONNES

OCT 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 918.48 TONNES

OCT 25/WITH GOLD UP $1.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 918.48 TONNES

OCT 24/WITH GOLD UP $8.75 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER GOLD WITHDRAWAL OF 1.18 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 918.48 TONNES

OCT 23/2016′ WITH GOLD UP $8.40 TODAY: A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 4.98 TONNES  IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.66 TONNES

OCT 22.WITH GOLD DOWN $0.15: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.64 TONNES

OCT 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.25//A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE : A MONSTROUS PAPER DEPOSIT OF 6.45 TONNES//GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.64 TONNES

OCT 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.25 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 918.19 TONNES

OCT 17/WITH GOLD UP $4.00 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 918.19 TONNES

OCT 16/WITH GOLD UP $10.25 TODAY//A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD; A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.66 TONNES

OCT 15//WITH GOLD DOWN$13.25 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.71 TONNES

OCT 14/2019: WITH GOLD UP $8.25 TODAY//NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.71 TONNES

OCT 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.90 TODAY NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.71 TONNES

OCT 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.00 TODAY, A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 921,71 TONNES

OCT.9//WITH GOLD UP $8.90//NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD

OCT 8\WITH GOLD DOWN 35 CENTS //NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD

OCT 7 WITH GOLD DOWN 7 DOLLARS//A BIG CHANGE //A DEPOSIT OF 2.93 TONNES//

INVENTORY RISES TO 923.76 TONNES

 

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NOV 11/2019/Inventory rests tonight at 901.19 tonnes

*IN LAST 701 TRADING DAYS: 35.27 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 601 TRADING DAYS: A NET 131.87 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

NOV 11/2019 WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.172 MILLION OZ///

NOV 8/2019 WITH SILVER DOWN 19 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.172 MILLION OZ//

NOV 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 57 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.172

NOV 6/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT TODAY: A HUGE  CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 2.804 MILLION OZ///INVENTORY REST AT 379.172 MILLION OZ

NOV 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 44 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.368 MILLION OZ//

NOV 4/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 157,000 OZ TO PAY FOR FEES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.368 MILLION OZ//

NOV 1//WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.525 MILLION OZ

OCT 31//NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY

OCT 30.//WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.525 MILLION OZ

OCT 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL  CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV” A WITHDRAWAL OF 400,000 OZ TO PAY FOR FEES/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 376.525 MILLION OZ//

OCT 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 909,000 OZ FROM THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.925 MILLION OZ/

OCT 25/2019: WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 377.834 MILLION OZ//

OCT 24/2019: WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 377.834 MILLION OZ/

OCT 23/2019: WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 377.834 MILLION OZ//

OCT 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.963 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 377.834 MILLION OZ.

OCT 21/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.222 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV../INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.797 MILLION OZ//

OCT 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.919 MILLION O

OCT 17./WITH SILVER UP 17 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.87 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.919 MILLION OZ//

OCT 16/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 382.789 MILLION OZ//

OCT 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 30 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.15 MILLION OZ//. INVENTORY RESTS AT 382.789 MILLION OZ

OCT 14/WITH SILVER UP 18 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 384.939 MILLION OZ

OCT 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 384.939 MILLION OZ//

OCT 10/2016//WITH SILVER DOWN 22 CENTS: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.443 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 384.939 MILLION OZ

OCT 8/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS //NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 383.496 MILLION OZ

OCT 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 166,000 OZ/INVENTORY LOWERS TO 383.496 MILLION OZ

 

NOV 11:  SLV INVENTORY

379.172 MILLION OZ

 

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 1.89/ and libor 6 month duration 1,92

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: – .03

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 1.94%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 2.00

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.06

end

 

 

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

Financial Advisers Should Protect Clients By Diversification Into Gold as History Repeats – Irish Times Interview

◆ Financial advisers have not learnt from financial history or even learnt lessons from the near financial collapse ten years ago

◆ Investors in Ireland, the UK and internationally are no more aware of risk in financial markets today than we were ten years ago

◆ Investors are not being well served by financial advisers advocating “balanced” portfolios of stocks and bonds at all time highs in the run-up to the next crash

◆ “Learn from the past” and “never trust so-called experts”

Irish Times Interview with Mark O’Byrne of GoldCore

“As a result of the downturn, we’re seeing the traditional flight to gold as a safe haven in times of macroeconomic or geopolitical turbulence, and that will be positive for our business in the short to medium term,” says O’Byrne (45).

“But in the long term, the sheer magnitude of what’s happened has seriously eroded Ireland’s net value, and in the end that’s undoubtedly going to hamper anyone who sells investments or gives financial advice. It’s bad for all of us.”

O’Byrne is not inclined to let banks, stockbrokers or “so-called financial advisers” off the hook with the apologia that nobody could have anticipated the near-biblical scale of the collapse – an argument he dismisses as spin.

“While it’s true that nobody could have anticipated the extent of what happened, advisers should have been well aware that there is risk in the world. They seemed to have forgotten. They should have been more diligent – and should have ensured there was more diversification.

“Just look at the performance of Irish pension funds during 2008. It was absolutely appalling because they weren’t diversified. Irish funds fell 37.5 per cent on average, while German funds, for instance, fell just 8 per cent.

“German pension fund managers would never have dreamed of putting 60 or 70 per cent of their portfolios into equities – which is exactly what the majority of Irish pension funds did.”

O’Byrne set up GoldCore, Ireland’s first bullion dealer – it was then called Gold and Silver Investments Limited – in 2003, and in 2006 was named Financial Analyst of the Year by Moneymate and the Investor magazines, ahead of other well-known nominees such as Robbie Kelleher and Dan McLaughlin.

In 2008, the company expanded into the UK with an office in the City, and says it had sales of €42.3 million, with customers in more than 30 countries. But accounts filed recently for Goldcore show that profit after tax last year dipped to €50,200 compared to €78,700 in 2007.

Earlier this year it rebranded as GoldCore, offering wealth management as well as bullion services, working on the basis that the bedrock of portfolio performance is asset allocation – and, of course, diversification.

O’Byrne views gold as a commodity to buy and hold for the medium to long term, rather than one for short-term speculation.

And while research by GoldCore, published in June, showed that Irish investors in gold outperformed the Iseq by 316 per cent since the start of the financial crisis in August 2007, O’Byrne strongly recommends a holistic approach for a balanced investment portfolio.

“This is not about bashing property or cash or bonds. We believe all of them are important. But gold has a role to play as a diversification at 10 per cent or maybe 20 per cent max in a holistic portfolio, as a hedge against the rest of that portfolio.

“We tend to put all our eggs in one basket: we had them in the property basket, pension funds had them in the equities basket, now we have them in deposits of cash, which is defensive and completely understandable. But in the next two or three years inflation will take off . . .

That’s why diversification is essential.”

ON THE RECORD:

NameMark OByrne

Company: GoldCore – http://www.goldcore.com

Job: Founder and director

Age: 45 now

Background: Graduated from UCD in 1996 with a BA in history and Greek and Roman civilisation – and a fascination with economic history. Joined the family recruitment business, Personnel Vineyard, and later began investing in property. In 2003, set up Gold and Silver Investments Limited, Irelands first bullion dealer. In 2008, opened a London office. Rebranded as GoldCore in 2009. Gold hits $1,000 an ounce in September.

Challenges: “Convincing investors that gold is a currency and a safe haven asset rather than something worn by supermodels or the comic book view of a yellow metal thats lusted after by evil pirates.”

Inspired by: “My family. I suppose my primary reason for being in business is to look after my family and my friends. They, in turn, inspire me to do the right thing by my customers.

Most important thing learned so far: “Two things: I studied history, so I suppose it’s that people, unfortunately, have a habit of not learning from the past. The second is never to trust so-called experts. People have to educate themselves and make their own prudent investment decisions.”

Key points made in this interview (published 10 years ago on November 6 2009) are as true and apt today as they were then. History repeating. Article courtesy of Irish Times

NEWS and COMMENTARY

Gold rises as concerns over trade deal, economic slowdown linger

Shadow Bank Crisis Sparks Gold Rush for Some India Lenders

Bankers in $220 Billion Scandal Offered Gold to Hide Client Cash

Asian shares a sea of red as Hong Kong chaos hits sentiment

European stocks lower on dampened trade hopes, Hong Kong escalations

Investors wary as social unrest spreads from Hong Kong to Santiago

Bolivian President Morales announces his resignation

Video: Gold – how far low can it go?

Watch Video Here

GOLD PRICES (LBMA – USD, GBP & EUR – AM/ PM Fix)

08-Nov-19 1466.85 1464.15, 1144.58 1142.62 & 1328.09 1328.13
07-Nov-19 1484.10 1484.25, 1153.44 1156.82 & 1339.40 1341.76
06-Nov-19 1488.55 1486.05, 1155.26 1154.51 & 1342.23 1341.31
05-Nov-19 1504.60 1488.95, 1166.37 1156.17 & 1352.18 1344.67
04-Nov-19 1509.20 1509.45, 1168.57 1169.52 & 1352.39 1353.98
01-Nov-19 1509.85 1508.80, 1165.76 1164.49 & 1354.79 1351.28
31-Oct-19 1506.40 1510.95, 1163.09 1168.57 & 1348.53 1356.53
30-Oct-19 1490.15 1492.10, 1156.65 1159.81 & 1340.39 1342.74
29-Oct-19 1492.75 1486.75, 1164.79 1155.20 & 1347.80 1338.37
28-Oct-19 1505.05 1492.40, 1172.89 1160.94 & 1356.95 1345.55

MARKET UPDATES LAST WEEK

Gold Falls 3% In Week to One-Month Low At $1,464/oz As Banks and Hedge Funds Sell COMEX Futures Aggressively

Gold Futures Fall On Trade Deal Hopes; Central Banks of China, Russia, Turkey Buy Gold

Deutsche Bank On The Verge Of Creating The EU’s “Lehman Moment”?

Gold ETF and Central Bank Gold Buying Supports Gold Demand In Q3

Video: Has Germany Increased Its Gold Reserves For The First Time In 21 Years?

SIGN UP FOR OUR AWARD WINNING MARKET UPDATES HERE

Mark O’Byrne
Executive Director

 

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

Bundesbank denies any increase in gold reserves

(GATA)

Bundesbank denies recent increase in gold reserves

 Section: 

9:45a ET Friday, November 8, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Replying today to GATA’s request for clarification, made Monday, the press office of Germany’s Bundesbank said the central bank had not increased its gold reserves recently, contrary to what had been reported obscurely by Bloomberg News:

http://www.gata.org/node/19559

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

Mcleod on Kingworldnews describes the relentless pounding of paper gold is not discouraging buyers..they are just switching to real gold..physical.

(Kingworldnews/McLeod)

Desperate pounding of gold futures isn’t discouraging buyers, Macleod tells KWN

 Section: 

5:06p ET Saturday, November 9, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Something very strange is happening in the gold futures market in New York, GoldMoney research director Alasdair Macleod says in an interview today with King World News.

That is, the number of contracts is exploding even as the gold price is falling, indicating enormous buying despite the falling price.

… 

Bullion banks, Macleod says, are desperately trying to pound the gold price down, probably acting for governments. The pounding may indicate financial trouble at the bullion banks or trouble in the German banking system or at Deutsche Bank particularly, according to Macleod.

“Under normal circumstances,” Macleod says, “you do not get a sharp decline in the price with record volumes with record open interest developing on the fall unless” the price “has already fallen a long way and we’re seeing a last-gasp inflection point, but that is not we’ve got at the moment. We’re in a bull market and this performance is peculiar.”

Macleod’s interview is posted at KWN here:

https://kingworldnews.com/alasdair-macleod-11-9-2019/

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

The Russians and Danske bank realize that paper is only paper as they seek the true money–physical gold.

(Bloomberg)/gata

To Danske Bank and rich Russians, gold still looks like pretty good money

 Section: 

Danske Pitched Gold to Rich Russians Eager to Avoid Attention

By Irina Reznik, Ott Ummelas, and Frances Schwartzkopff
Bloomberg News
Sunday, November 10, 2019

At the height of the Danske Bank dirty-money scandal, the lender started offering gold bars to wealthy clients to help them keep their fortunes hidden, according to documents seen by Bloomberg.

Aside from offering a hedge against risk, Danske pitched gold as a way for clients to achieve “anonymity,” according to the documents. It also said that using gold ensured “portability” of assets, according to an internal presentation dated June 2012.A spokesman for Danske Bank declined to comment. In Danske’s September 2018 tell-all report on its non-resident unit, the bank listed the services it provided to clients. Aside from payments, these included setting up foreign-exchange lines, as well as bond and securities trading. The bank didn’t list the sale of gold bars.

Danske Bank, which is being investigated across Europe and in the U.S. after failing to screen about $220 billion that gushed through its non-resident unit in Estonia from 2007 to 2015, has now shuttered the operations at the heart of the scandal. That’s after local authorities kicked Danske out, as the scope of the affair became clear.

Gold plays a special role in the historic ties between Russia and Estonia, which gained independence after WWI only to be swallowed up by the Soviet Union in 1940. A century ago, communists fresh from the Russian revolution used Estonia as a bridge to channel vast quantities of gold taken from the murdered family of Czar Nicholas II into the West.

In the early 1920s, about 700 tons of Czarist coins dodged a western blockade by passing through Tallinn with the knowledge of the country’s leaders, before heading for Scandinavia and the U.K. Today’s Russian elite may have used the same path.

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-11-10/danske-pitched-gold-t…

END

Chris Powell and Bill Murphy both emphasize on Chris Marcus’ podcast that government’s refuse to answer gold questions posed to them

(GATA)

From New Orleans, GATA speakers emphasize govt.’s refusal to answer gold questions

 Section: 

8p ET Monday, October 21, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Interviewed by Chris Marcus of Arcadia Economics as the New Orleans Investment Conference drew to a close, GATA Chairman Bill Murphy and your secretary/treasurer emphasized the refusal of the U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve, and Commodity Futures Trading Commission to answer specific questions about the government’s surreptitious intervention in the markets.

… 

Your secretary/treasurer argued that recent months resemble the last months of the London Gold Pool, what with central banks starting to take opposing positions on gold, some acquiring and some still intervening to suppress prices.

A system of infinite money such as is operating now, your secretary/treasurer adds, cannot succeed without infinite commodity price suppression.

The interview is 19 minutes long and can be viewed at YouTube here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ti9cF___XU8&t=126s

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

I agree with Von Greyerz, that the paper gold market cannot survive its extreme leverage

(Kingworldnews/Von Greyerz)

Paper gold market can’t survive its extreme leverage, von Greyerz tells KWN

 Section: 

8:45p ET Sunday, November 10, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

In comments at King World News, Swiss gold fund manager Egon von Greyerz notes the unreality of the paper gold market.

“The corrupt and manipulated paper gold market is guaranteed to fail,” von Greyerz contends. “A market that is leveraged at 300 times the underlying physical or real market has no chance of survival. When the holders of paper gold realize that they are holding a worthless piece of paper, the whole paper market will implode and the price of gold will skyrocket. This is not a question of if but when.”

Von Greyerz’s comments are posted at KWN here:

https://kingworldnews.com/greyerz-the-great-deception-will-lead-to-hell-…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

iii) Other physical stories:

Gold trading

Gold Slammed To 3-Mo Lows Despite Dollar Dump

 

The rout in precious metals continues this morning with gold back to 3-month lows, despite the dollar also being dumped…

 

Breaking below its 50- and 100-day moving-averages…

Source: Bloomberg

And with bonds away, the algos will play, decoupling gold and the dollar…

Source: Bloomberg

Will gold re-rally back to USD weakness when bond discipline returns?

end

Turkey’s central bank largest gold buyer in Q3 with 71.4 tons

During the 3rd quarter Turkey recorded a massive 71.4 tonnes of physical gold. This was added to its official reserves which now stands at 386 tonnes. Interestingly enough Turkey has been short of dollars and yet they are purchasing gold.  China has lent them billions of dollars.

(DAILY SABAH)ISTANBUL10.11.2019In the third quarter of this year, geopolitical risk and trade tensions led to an upward movement in global gold prices, despite last week’s contraction. Turkey recorded the highest purchases in gold in this period and reached 385.5 tons in total gold reservesTurkey, which made its highest monthly gold purchase ever with 41.8 tons in August, has been named the largest gold purchaser in the world with 71.4 tons in the third quarter, according to the World Gold Council (WGC) report.According to WGC’s Gold Demand Trends report for the third quarter, while worldwide demand for gold continued to increase, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) came to the fore among the world’s central banks with largest amount of gold purchased in the third quarter.Turkey added 71.4 tons of gold to its gold reserves in this period, raising the CRBT’s total gold reserves to 385.5 tons. The country bought 41.8 tons of gold in August, making the highest monthly gold purchase in its history.

Russia also took the lead in countries that increased their gold reserves over the same period. The country increased its total gold reserves by 34.9 tons to 2,241.9 tons.

The share of gold reserves of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, which has been reducing its dollar assets to diversify its reserves for some time, has risen to 20% in total reserves. The dollar equivalent of the bank’s gold reserves was around $100 billion.

Another country that increased its gold reserves was China, which bought 21.8 tons of gold in the third quarter.

Gold funds continue to break records

Gold-based mutual funds (ETFs) bought 258.2 tons of gold in the third quarter, raising the amount of gold in their portfolio to a record 2,855.3 tons.

Central banks’ expansionary monetary policy played an important role in gold demand in the third quarter, which saw the highest amount-based increase in the last four years.

The amount of gold held by North American funds increased by 184.9 tons in the same quarter. This purchase, equivalent to 71.6% of gold purchases in the third quarter, was closely associated with the U.S. Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate cuts.

European funds bought 55.8 tons of gold in the third quarter, while Asian funds increased their reserves by 14.3 tons.

Central banks keep buying gold

Central banks continue to play a critical role in the rise in demand for gold, according to WGC data. The third quarter of this year saw a 156.2-ton increase in the central banks’ gold reserves. A total of 547.5 tons of gold has been purchased since the beginning of the year.

According to the report, Turkey, Russia and China take the lead among central banks that have recently increased their gold reserves.

Gold supply rose by 4% to 1,222.3 tons in the third quarter compared to the same period last year. This was due to a 10% increase in recycling.

Gold production in mines declined to 877.8 tons in the third quarter from 883.3 tons in the same period last year. The amount of gold recycled has reached 963.1 tons since the beginning of the year.

According to the report, geopolitical risks continued to support the upward trend in gold prices. For the price of an ounce of gold, $1,500 has become a significant level. Expectations of a slowdown in the global economy and uncertainties caused by trade wars reduced risk appetite and supported the gold trend.

Negative-yield bonds, which amounted to approximately $17 trillion in the period covered by the report, made gold an attractive investment instrument for investors.

Meanwhile, gold prices in global markets fell to a three-month low on Friday. Spot gold fell to $1,455.80, the lowest since Aug. 5. U.S. gold futures settled down 0.2% at $1,462.90. Optimism that the U.S. and China close to signing an interim trade deal put pressure on gold prices.

One of the most important marks for gold was the psychologically important $1,500. Struggling to narrow that gap throughout the day, the commodity was ultimately unsuccessful.

According to a piece on MarketWatch, experts said that the price drop for the precious metal was partly due to rising yields and falling bonds, which led to investors’ lack of aggressive rate cut expectations from central banks.

-END-

These  guys know the true meaning of physical gold as opposed to anything paper

(Bloomberg)

Bank Behind World’s Largest Money Laundering Scandal Offered Russians Gold Bars To Hide Their Fortune

When we last looked at Danske Bank, the Danish lender was at the center of what has been dubbed the world’s largest, $220 billion money-laundering scandal that allegedly involved Russians transferring funds offshore in violation of European regulations (it also involved the chronically criminal Deutsche Bank). Then, two months ago, the scandal took a lethal turn when the CEO of the bank’s Estonia branch was found dead in a still-unexplained suicide. Now, we learn of yet another bizarre twist in what some have dubbed the biggest dirty money scandal of all time: the Danish lender was offering gold bars to wealthy clients to help them keep their fortunes hidden.

According to Bloomberg, the bank’s Estonian branch – whose CEO committed suicide – which was already wiring billions of client dollars to offshore accounts, told a select group of mostly Russian customers some time around 2012, that they could now also convert their money into gold bars and coins.

So for those asking the benefits of holding money in physical gold instead of fiat (or crypto), here is the answer: aside from offering a hedge against risk, Danske presented gold as a way for clients to achieve “anonymity,” according to the documents. More importantly, the bank said that using gold ensured “portability” of assets, according to an internal presentation dated June 2012.

As one would expect, the gold/money-laundering service did not come cheap: Danske charged a fee of 0.5% on larger orders, while smaller orders had a commission of as much as 4%.

This is the first time we learn that Danske offered such “services” – in the bank’s own report on its non-resident unit, the bank listed the services it provided to clients. Aside from payments, these included setting up foreign-exchange lines, as well as bond and securities trading. The bank didn’t list the sale of gold bars.

While it’s not known how much gold Danske managed to sell while the now defunct Estonian unit was still running, an internal email seen by Bloomberg revealed that at least some clients used the service. Local private banking clients were also offered the service.

Furthermore, for gold bars weighing 250 grams or more, Danske clients could obtain the precious metal without a sealed pack or paper certificates. Bloomberg adds that anti-money laundering approval was needed before customers could collect the gold, but such approvals weren’t necessary if the gold was kept in long-term storage, according to the documents.

The report goes on to note that the alleged “gold laundering” service – somewhat similar to the Turkey-Dubai-Iran PetroGold Triangle that emerged in 2012 as a means by which Iran evaded the Western blockade – was no longer offered after 2013, when the price of gold tumbled. A bank presentation dated from June 2012, when gold was trading close to an all-time high, told clients that “the product is not being advertised publicly or in the media.”

Additional documents revealed that Danske’s Estonian branch sourced its gold from two partners, depending on the size of orders. One partner handled orders that exceeded 300,000 euros, equivalent to 6 kilograms at the time, and bought the gold from the Austrian mint; the other was used for smaller orders, according to the presentation, which didn’t name the suppliers.

Some of the documents promoting gold bars are signed by Howard Wilkinson, the whistleblower who brought the Danske Bank laundering scandal into the public light. His lawyer, Stephen Kohn, didn’t immediately comment on the matter when contacted by Bloomberg.

As reported previously, Danske Bank is currently investigated by the Department of Justice and the Securities and Exchange Commission in the U.S. In Europe, it’s the target of criminal probes by prosecutors in Denmark, Estonia and France, according to Bloomberg. The bank has also had several class-action lawsuits brought against it, and its former chief executive officer, Thomas Borgen, is under preliminary criminal investigation in Denmark, along with many other former directors at Danske.

As an aside, gold has traditionally played a special role in the “historic ties” between Russia and Estonia, which was swallowed by the Soviet Union in 1940 after it gained independence following WWI, and which communists participating in the Russian revolution used as a bridge to channel vast quantities of gold taken from the murdered family of Czar Nicholas II into the West.

In the early 1920s, about 700 tons of Czarist coins dodged a western blockade by passing through Tallinn with the knowledge of the country’s leaders, before heading for Scandinavia and the U.K. It now appears that Russian elite may have used the same path.

It remains unclear who bought the Danske gold, or where it now resides.

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early MONDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 7.0094/

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  7.1000   /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 54.21 POINTS OR 1.83%

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 724.59 POINTS OR 2.62%

 

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 06.03 POINTS OR 0.26%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL RED/

 

 

 

USA dollar index UP TO 98.18/Euro RISES TO 1.1035

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. –.06/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 108.93/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 56.21 and Brent: 61.88

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE DOWN/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO -.26%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 1.25% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 0.41%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.51: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO : 1.36

3k Gold at $1463.50 silver at: 16.87   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 13/100 in roubles/dollar) 63.94

3m oil into the 56 dollar handle for WTI and 61 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 108.93 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9940 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0969 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to 0.26%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 1.94% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.42%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.7754..

US Futures, Global Stocks Slide On Lack Of Trade Optimism, Hong Kong Violence

After 5 straight weeks of market gains which pushed the S&P to new all time highs, traders are puzzled by this odd, non-green color permeating US equity futures and global markets.

There were two catalysts for today’s early market pullback: lack of “optimism” on the trade front after Trump refuted China on Friday, saying he had not agreed to roll back tariffs, and a sudden explosion in violence during the 24th straight week of protests in Hong Kong, where police shot and critically wounded a protester, another person was set on fire which pushed Asian stocks to their worst day since August, and sent the Hang Seng tumbling 2.6% for its worst day since August.

The MSCI world equity index slipped 0.2%, with Hong Kong leading losses across Asia. There, MSCI’s widest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell 1.2% from six-month highs to set a course for its worst day since late August. Overall, Asian stocks slid for a second day, led by technology firms, as investors assessed China’s disinflation risk after Beijing reported the worst PPI in three years coupled with the highest headline CPI in seven years, and the new wave of violent protests in Hong Kong.

Most markets in the region were down, with Hong Kong leading declines and Australia advancing. The Topix edged up 0.1% for a five-day rising streak, as telecommunication companies offered strong support. China’s Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.8%, with Industrial & Commercial Bank of China and PetroChina among the biggest drags. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index suffered its worst day since August, after two protesters were shot by police and a man was set on fire during an argument. India’s Sensex slipped 0.1%, as Reliance Industries and Tata Consultancy Services weighed on the gauge.

Trader nerves spread to Europe, where the broad Euro STOXX 600 fell 0.2% with banks and miners leading the Stoxx 600 Index lower. Wall Street futures also pointed to a lower open.

Markets risk being hit by any further escalation of the violence in Hong Kong, where protesters are angry about what they see as police brutality and meddling by Beijing in the freedoms guaranteed to the former British colony.

“At some stage I think it will be likely that there will be a more fully-fledged crackdown,” said Stéphane Barbier de la Serre, a strategist at Makor Capital Markets. “And if you see a crackdown, you could see markets collapsing. For these reasons markets are complacent.

The unrest in Hong Kong reminded investors of lingering geopolitical risks as U.S.-China trade talks drag on. Data over the weekend showed Chinese factory-gate prices dropping for a fourth month, heightening concern about the effect of the trade war on the world’s second-biggest economy. Still, Alibaba’s sales event kicked off with a bang, helping investors gauge how willing Chinese consumers are to spend as economic growth threatens to slip below 6%.

Looking further ahead this week, we can expect to see further fallout” amid trade balance, manufacturing and industrial-production data for some of the world’s biggest economies, said Siobhan Redford, a Johannesburg-based economist at FirstRand Bank Ltd. “If these figures reflect further deterioration in economic activity, we can expect markets to continue to trade weaker.”

The violence in Hong Kong sent investors running for assets perceived as safe havens and away from riskier currencies. The Japanese yen, which strengthens in times of global political or economic turmoil, strengthened 0.3% against the dollar. China’s yuan, in contrast, weakened 0.4% to 7.01 per dollar in offshore trade. Gold rose 0.4%, rebounding from a three-month low touched on Friday to reach $1,463.49 per ounce.

In Europe, Spanish government bond yields held their ground after a weekend election delivered a deeply riven parliament and set the stage for difficult talks to form a new ruling coalition. The far-right surged in the poll, the fourth in as many years. Spain’s 10-year bond yield was flat at 0.40% after the country returned to the polls yesterday for the second time this year after April’s inconclusive result that left the parties unable to form a new government. It seems forming a government will continue to be equally tough as the results produced were even more fragmented with Socialists still the largest minority in the parliament. The fragmented results point to weeks of negotiations for party leader Pedro Sanchez if he is to form a government. Most other major bond yields across the euro zone were little changed on Monday, holding below highs reached on Friday as investors showed scant appetite for risk in the wake of the Hong Kong violence.  Veterans’ Day in the U.S. means no Treasuries trading.

Then there were fears that optimism over a China deal had gone too far. after a bout of optimism last week over prospects for Washington and Beijing to reach an initial deal that would quell the worst of the 18-month old dispute, doubts over prospects for a resolution gnawed again after President Donald Trump said on Saturday that talks with China had moved more slowly than he would have liked. Trump said reports that the United States was willing to lift tariffs were incorrect, adding that Beijing wanted a deal more than he did.

Still, some market players said Trump’s comments fitted an established pattern of optimistic rhetoric from the U.S. president being followed by a more skeptical tone. A deal was still likely, they said.

“It’s the usual two steps forward and one step backwards,” said Adam Cole, head of FX strategy at RBC Capital Markets. “We are probably still moving in the direction (of a deal), and that’s the way the market is priced on balance … the direction is still a positive one.”

In central bank news, BoJ Summary of Opinions from October meeting stated Japan’s economy is likely to continue on an expanding trend as the impact of the slowdown in overseas economies on domestic demand is expected to be limited. BoJ added the rate of change in CPI Y/Y is likely to increase gradually toward 2% but added it is expected to take time for the inflation rate to accelerate, while it noted there has been no further increase in the possibility that momentum towards achieving the price stability target will be lost.

In geopolitical developments, National Security Advisor O’Brien said the US is ready to economically punish Turkey unless it gives up its Russian-made S-400 defence missile systems. Elsewhere, President Trump tweeted it would be a very positive step if Iran is able to turn over kidnapped former FBI Agent Robert Levinson to the US, but also suggested Iran is enriching uranium which would be a very bad step. Finally, Bolivia President Morales resigned after the country’s armed forces chief called on him to quit.

The uncertainty over trade weighed on commodities markets commodities. Oil lost 1% on Monday, with concerns over trade looming and worries on oversupply weighed on the market. Brent crude was down 54 cents, or 0.9%, at $61.97.

Tencent, DXC Technology, and UGI are among companies reporting earnings

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.3% to 3,081.50
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.2% to 404.62
  • MXAP down 0.7% to 165.16
  • MXAPJ down 1.2% to 528.27
  • Nikkei down 0.3% to 23,331.84
  • Topix up 0.07% to 1,704.03
  • Hang Seng Index down 2.6% to 26,926.55
  • Shanghai Composite down 1.8% to 2,909.98
  • Sensex down 0.2% to 40,254.24
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.7% to 6,772.53
  • Kospi down 0.6% to 2,124.09
  • German 10Y yield fell 0.5 bps to -0.268%
  • Euro up 0.1% to $1.1031
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 2.7 bps to 0.847%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 1.3 bps to 0.401%
  • Brent futures down 1.2% to $61.78/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.5% to $1,465.86
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.1% to 98.27

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • President Donald Trump said trade talks with China are moving along “very nicely,” and said the leaders in Beijing wanted a deal “much more than I do.”
  • German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government struck a compromise deal on a basic pension, a key issue for the Social Democrats that was threatening the stability of the ruling coalition
  • Bank of Japan board members focused on how the bank could signal a greater willingness to act rather than on taking concrete measures when they met in October, according to a roundup of opinions from the meeting released Monday
  • A Hong Kong protester was in critical condition after being shot by a police officer, as the financial hub reeled from citywide efforts to disrupt the work week amid worsening political unrest. China says only patriots can lead Hong Kong as tensions rise
  • Spain’s Socialists won the greatest number of seats in Sunday’s election, but the results are so fragmented that party leader Pedro Sanchez is going to struggle even more than before to form a government
  • Bolivian leader Evo Morales, South America’s longest-serving president and a towering figure for the region’s left-wing movements, resigned after election irregularities triggered weeks of violent clashes and intervention from the armed forces
  • Any attempt to limit U.S. investors’ portfolio inflows into China would risk reprisals and have “enormous unintended consequences,” according to Craig Phillips, a former top aide to Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin
  • Boris Johnson’s Conservative Party attacked the opposition Labour Party’s spending plans as they sought to switch the focus of their election campaign to one of their perceived strong suits: the economy
  • Germany’s recent glimmer of hope after a year of industrial doldrums risks coming too late to prevent wider weakness from taking hold
  • China’s credit growth slowed more than expected to the weakest pace since at least 2017 in October, amid declining bond sales and a long public holiday

Asian equity markets traded mostly negative with sentiment clouded by uncertainty brought on by the temperamental trade headlines including comments from US President Trump who was optimistic on trade talks but clarified that he has not yet agreed to rollback tariffs on China. ASX 200 (+0.7%) and Nikkei 225 (-0.3%) were mixed in which strength in defensive stocks and resilience in the financials sector underpinned Australia, while the mood in Tokyo deteriorated on flows into its currency and as participants digested weaker than expected Machine Orders, as well as a slew of corporate earnings. Hang Seng (-2.6%) and Shanghai Comp. (-1.8%) were the laggards amid the ongoing US-China trade uncertainty, continued PBoC liquidity inaction and mixed Chinese inflation data. Hong Kong markets also took the brunt of further unrest in the city in which police were reported to have fired live rounds at protesters, which overshadowed the euphoria from a potential record-breaking Singles’ Day where sales in the first 90 minutes alone already reached halfway of the USD 31bln record set for the whole day last year. Finally, 10yr JGBs were lifted and reclaimed the 153.00 level with prices supported by the predominantly negative performance across stocks and with the BoJ in the market for a respectable JPY 1.16tln of JGBs in up to 10yr maturities.

Top Asian News

  • Australia Braces as Bushfire Warning Reaches ‘Catastrophic’
  • One of China’s Biggest Defaulters Proposes Debt Recast Plan
  • China’s Credit Growth Decelerates on Seasonal Dip, Bond Sales

A choppy start to the week for European stocks thus far [Eurostoxx 50 -0.4%], with the region now off lows after being initially dented from the overnight performance in Asia, which was weighed on by mixed trade signals and further unrest in Hong Kong. Sectors are mostly lower with some buoyancy seen in defensives whilst cyclicals are in the red. Materials lead the pack to the downside amid a sentiment-driven slump in copper prices, in-turn providing some reprieve to industrial names. FTSE 100 modestly lags peers (cash fell below its 200 DMA at 7296) as the index bears the brunt of downside in heavyweight materials and energy stocks in lockstep with the respective complexes, whilst UK financials are hit on Moody’s downgrade of the UK’s outlook; some heavyweight UK losers include Glencore (-3.5%), Antofagasta (-3.5%), Standard Chartered (-2.5%), HSBC (-2.5%) and BP (-1.3%). Further for the banking index, Spanish banks are also under pressured in the aftermath of the Spanish election deadlock, which sees BBVA (-1.0%) and Santander (-1.8%) on the backfoot amid political uncertainty. Elsewhere, European luxury names fail to benefit from record China Singles Day sales (Alibaba -0.6% pre-market) amid the escalating situation in Hong Kong as region saw its 24th week of unrest and as a police officer shot a protestor with a live round – Burberry (-2.8%), LVMH (-0.3%), Pandora (-3.5%), Swatch (-1.8%) and Richemont (-1.8%) are all near the foot of their respective bourses. Finally, in terms of individual movers – Greggs (+15.0%) rose to the top of the pan-European index after the Co. once again upgraded outlook, whilst Novartis (+1.0%) after Co’s Sandoz unit announced an agreement for Aspen’s Japanese operations and assets, with expectations for the amount of deferred consideration not to exceed EUR 100mln.

Top European News

  • Sirius Minerals Jumps on Scaled-Back Plans to Build Potash Mine
  • U.K. Avoids Recession But Ends Third Quarter on Weak Footing
  • U.K. Tories Switch Focus to Economy, Attack Labour’s Spending
  • Spain Is Stuck After Sanchez’s Election Gamble Backfires Badly

In FX, the Dollar has lost momentum against most major peers amidst a partial reversal in UST yields and curve re-flattening, with the DXY drifting back from Friday’s 98.408 highs into a 98.382-98.231 range. Risk sentiment has soured somewhat on several fronts, including US-China trade after President Trump clarified that no decision to lift existing tariffs as part of the Phase 1 deal has been taken, while weekend protests in HK escalated markedly and US-Turkey relations remain strained ahead of a planned meeting between Trump and Erdogan later this week.

  • NZD/AUD – The Kiwi is sharply outperforming in the run up to Wednesday’s RBNZ policy meeting with the market pricing in a 25 bp rate cut, but NZIER’s shadow board going against the roughly 2/3 consensus and looking for no change, albeit noting a more diverse range of views compared to the previous OCR decision. Nzd/Usd is firmly back above 0.6350, and also benefiting from favourable cross-flows as Aud/Nzd retreats through 1.0800 and the Aussie flounders just above 0.6850 on the aforementioned less positive US-China updates.
  • GBP/JPY/CHF/EUR – All clawing back losses vs the Buck, with Cable trying to regain 1.2800+ status following a raft of UK data that was mildly disappointing in headline terms, but included some encouraging elements, like flat q/q business inventories and -0.2% construction output vs -0.5% forecast for both. Meanwhile, Usd/Jpy and Usd/Chf have both pulled back from last week’s peaks to sub-109.00 and circa 0.9950, as the Yen and Franc retrieve some of their risk-related declines. Elsewhere, the Euro is testing Fib resistance at 1.1030 after some initial reticence on Spanish political grounds, but may be stymied ahead of decent option expiry interest from 1.1045-60 (1 bn).
  • CAD/SEK/NOK – Relative laggards amidst weak crude prices and the broad downturn in risk appetite noted above, with the Loonie meandering between 1.3215-35 and still smarting after last Friday’s worrying Canadian jobs data, while Eur/Sek and Eur/Nok are both rebounding further towards 10.7250 and 10.1100 respectively, with the Norwegian Crown also unsettled by softer than expected core CPI.
  • EM – Losses against the Dollar are commonplace, but notable for the Yuan, Lira and Rand on the no full tariff rollback news, ongoing US-Turkey angst and SA Eskom production constraints. Meanwhile, the Mexican Peso awaits ip data in the absence of any US releases to drive Usd/Mxn due to the Veterans Day vacation north of the border.

In commodities, crude markets are lower, amid a cautious macro backdrop following mixed US/China trade headlines over the weekend. Supply side factors have also likely weighed on prices; a new oil field was discovered in Iran’s South-western province of Khuzestan and is said to contain 53 billion barrels of crude, which would increase the country’s proven oil reserves by one third. Moreover, Oman’s Oil Minister said deeper cuts by OPEC+ are unlikely and the extension of the pact is likely (in fitting with recent source reports) and, finally, the Keystone pipeline returned to service over the weekend following a leak at the end of last month. As such, WTI Dec’ 19 and Brent Jan’ 19 futures are trading in the USD 56.40/bbl and USD 61.70/bbl regions, having come off substantially from Friday’s highs of USD 57.40/bbl and USD 62.60/bbl. Also making the headlines, but less pertinent for crude markets for now, Saudi Aramco released the prospectus for its upcoming IPO over the weekend. The state oil giant will sell up to 0.5% of its shares to individual retail investors and will be restricted from issuing additional shares for a year after the IPO. According to the prospectus, the offering will begin on 17th November. In terms of metals; Gold prices have edged higher, assisted by the markets cautious tone, although the precious metal remains only slightly off recent lows around the USD 1460/oz level. “Investors have been liquidating gold as risk appetite appears to be returning to the market and demand for safe-haven assets slows down” observes ING, citing evidence from ETF investors, who have sold nearly 615k oz of gold over the past two days, taking total ETF holdings in gold to a one-month low of 81.68mln Oz as of 8 November. Elsewhere, the bank adds that the physical demand for gold faces pressure due to high prices and a pause by China on gold buying for forex reserves. Meanwhile, fragile risk sentiment have seen copper prices come under pressure, also weighed by broadly mixed data out of China; CPI beat expectations, largely driven by higher food prices, but PPI disappointed and provides yet more evidence that the country’s industrial sector is in deflation.

US Event Calendar

  • Nothing Major Scheduled

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Happy Monday. My weekend revolved around two TV highlights. Firstly, watching the film “Yesterday”, which is about a guy who after an accident enters a parallel universe where The Beatles didn’t exist. He then performs all their songs and becomes the most successful star on the planet. To be fair after you’ve watched Peppa Pig, Paw Patrol and Hey Duggee all day due to the lurgy knocking out your family, then that’s quite high brow. Then secondly watching Liverpool go 9 points clear of arch rivals Manchester City yesterday, after beating them 3-1. This is one universe I’m happy to stay in for now.

In terms of capturing the pulse in this universe, this morning we are launching a new market related survey for EMR readers. If there is sufficient interest the plan is to do this monthly and share the results within a few days. We will be asking consistent questions to build up a time series and introduce topical questions to capture the immediate mood. We would be grateful if as many of you as possible could click on the survey link and respond. Feel free to skip any questions you don’t want to answer. It’s as easy to do on a mobile devise or on a PC and should only take a few minutes. At this stage we expect to keep it open until Wednesday with the results published here on Thursday. Please give us suggestions as to how to improve this and on any alternative questions. The link is here and can only be used once so use your votes carefully.

The big story last week was the sell off in bonds, which we’ll dig into later. We’ll be interested from our survey where you think bond yields are going over the next 12 months. This week isn’t packed with key events – there’s a US holiday today (bonds closed, equities open) – but there are a few important highlights. As our US economists point out, President Trump’s appearance at the New York Economic Club tomorrow could be the main event not just because of the trade war discussions but because it occurs the day before the expiration of the 180-day delay to the results of the Section 232 auto investigation. So all eyes on this speech and subsequent deadline but the consensus has moved towards the belief that Trump won’t impose auto tariffs. It will be an important deadline to get past for markets though with a big focus on whether Mr Trump postpones making a decision or actively decides against action.

Staying with the US, Fed Chair Powell’s testimony to Congress’ Joint Economic Committee on Wednesday and a repeat to the House Budget Committee on Thursday will be highlights but with the Fed setting the bar high for rate moves in either direction at the recent FOMC, it’s hard to image that he can give a great deal of new information to markets. Nevertheless, it will give us all something to fixate towards. In terms of US data, CPI (Wednesday) and Retail Sales (Friday) will be the most watched with the latter probably the more important at the moment given the hope the economy is starting to bottom.

China’s monthly data dump on Thursday will be key as ever with German Q3 GDP release (Thursday) interesting as it could show the economy falling into a technical recession. Before that the German ZEW survey for November is out tomorrow, which will give a better real-time guide toward economic momentum. Last month the current situation reading fell to -25.3, its lowest level since April 2010, so that’ll be worth keeping an eye out to see if there are signs of stabilisation or whether the figures continue to deteriorate.

Earnings season is winding down now, with just 15 S&P 500 releases coming out this week. Just under 80% have beaten on earnings and just under 60% on sales. So a decent season. Releases this week include Vodafone, Enel, Linde and Experian tomorrow. On Wednesday, there’s Tencent, Cisco Systems and ABN AMRO Bank. And on Thursday, we have Walmart and Nvidia.

This morning in Asia stocks are mostly trading lower after significant Hong Kong police clashes with protesters today. The Hang Seng (-2.26%) is leading the declines while the Shanghai Comp (-1.29%), Nikkei ( -0.21%) and Kospi (-0.44%) are also all lower. Elsewhere, futures on the S&P 500 are trading down -0.27%. Over the weekend, we saw China’s October CPI and PPI data with CPI printing at +3.8% yoy (vs. +3.4% expected) while PPI printed at -1.6% yoy (vs. -1.5% yoy expected).

Last night we also saw the Spanish election results with the country returning to the polls yesterday for the second time this year after April’s inconclusive result that left the parties unable to form a new government. It seems forming a government will continue to be equally tough as the results produced were even more fragmented with Socialists still the largest minority in the parliament.

With 99.9% of votes counted, the Socialist Party was on 120 seats (123 last time), the Conservative People’s Party on 88 (from 66) seats while Vox – Spanish nationalist party – more than doubled their seats to 52. The pro-market Liberals of Ciudadanos saw their support sharply decline from 57 to 10 seats while anti-austerity party Podemos saw a dip to 35 (from 40). With a 350 seat chamber, building a majority coalition is going to be even harder than before, especially given the fraught political atmosphere in the country.

I’m terms of U.K. election watch, the weekend polls didn’t change the story too much with the Tory lead seemingly stable at around 10%. Today’s GDP will be interesting given the negative print in Q2. Markets are expecting a decent bounce to +0.4% QoQ in Q3. There’s not been much reaction to Moody’s placing the Aa2 rating on negative outlook on Friday night. Sterling is trading up +0.16% this morning at 1.2795. It comes amid Brexit uncertainties and after both the governing Conservatives and the opposition Labour Party announced they would increase public borrowing in the years ahead. In their statement, Moody’s said that “the capability and predictability that has traditionally distinguished the UK’s institutional framework has diminished”.

Recapping last week now, the big story was the significant selloff in bonds, with 10yr Treasuries up +23.1bps over the week (+2.4bps Friday) to reach 1.942%, their highest level since 31st July and nearly 50bps above the closing low of 1.457% reached back in early September. It was a similar story elsewhere around the world. 10yr bund yields rose +11.9bps to -0.263%, while 10yr JGBs were up +12.6bps (+1.4bps Friday) to -0.050%, which is the biggest basis point increase in a single week for JGB yields since May 2013. Another theme was the steepening of yield curves, with the US 2s10s up +10.7bps (+1.7bps Friday) to its highest level since July. The last time we saw the US 2s10s steepen this much in the space of a week was back in June 2017. The rise in yields meant that a number of countries saw 10yr yields return to positive territory, with French OATs up +9.2bps (-3.5bps Friday) to reach 0.023%. Higher yields proved great news for bank stocks, with the S&P 500 Banks industry group +3.10% (+0.17% Friday) and the STOXX Banks +5.08% (-1.43% Friday) both recording strong performances last week.

The catalyst for the moves seemed to be the trade war along with hopes of a turn in the data. Increasing hopes of the agreement of a phase one deal between the US and China saw investors cut back the chances of further central bank easing. By the close on Friday, the implied probability of another rate cut at the Fed’s December meeting had fallen to 5.8%, down from 16.5% the week before. However, markets lost some ground on Friday after President Trump said of China that “They’d like to have a rollback, I haven’t agreed to anything”. Yet in spite of his statement, global equities finished the week at new highs, with the S&P 500 up +0.85% (+0.26% Friday) at a new peak, while the STOXX 600 advanced +1.50% (-0.28% Friday). Trade-sensitive equities outperformed, with the Philadelphia semiconductor index up +2.77% (+0.53% Friday) and the STOXX Automobiles and Parts index up +4.33% (-0.46% Friday).

As positive sentiment spread through markets last week it was a bad time to be in safe havens. Gold fell -3.65%(-0.65% Friday) in its worst weekly performance since November 2016, while silver was down -7.26% (-1.72% Friday), its worst week since October 2016. Meanwhile in FX, the Japanese Yen weakened -1.05% (-0.04% Friday) against the US dollar, while sterling weakened -1.33% (-0.34% Friday) to a three-week low.

The main data release on Friday was the University of Michigan’s preliminary sentiment indicator for November, which rose by two-tenths to 95.7 (vs. 95.5 expected), its highest level since July. However, the current conditions index slipped unexpectedly to 110.9 (vs. 113.5 expected). In an interesting sign of how political affiliation shapes people’s views of the economy (or perhaps it’s the other way round…) the current conditions index for Democrats stood at 96.5, but for Republicans it was at 123.2. Similar divergences can be seen on both the expectations and the consumer sentiment indicators.

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)MONDAY MORNING/ SUNDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 54.21 POINTS OR 1.83%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 724.59 POINTS OR 2.62%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 60.03 POINTS OR 0.26%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .64%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 7.0094 /Oil DOWN TO 56.511 dollars per barrel for WTI and 61.88 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.0094 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0100 TRADE TALKS STALL///TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 C CHINA

China is not doing to good as auto sales fall 6% in October..the global auto recession is picking up speed

(zerohedge)

China Auto Sales Fall 6% In October As Global Auto Recession Shows No Signs Of Slowing

China has been spearheading the global recession in the automotive industry and, as one more month has come to pass, there are still no signs of the bleeding letting up.

As the U.S. and China continue to grapple with solving “Phase 1” of the allegedly upcoming trade deal, pressure remains on the automobile industry globally. For October, China retail passenger vehicle sales were lower by 6% year over year to 1.87 million units, according to the Passenger Car Association. October SUV retail sales also fell 0.7% y/y to 853,130 units.

Additionally, individual OEM data for China for October has also started to trickle in. Names like Toyota, Nissan and Mazda all posted low single digit drops for the month, while Honda was able to squeeze out a positive month.

Auto data aggregator Marklines reported:

  • Nissan announced on November 6 that it sold 139,064 units in October in China, reflecting a 2.1% y/y decrease in sales.
    • October sales of the 7th-generation Altima, Sylphy, Tiida, Qashqai and Kicks increased. Year-to-date (YTD) sales from January to October totaled 1,230,047 units, reflecting a 0.6% y/y decrease.
  • Toyota sold 131,700 units in October, reflecting a 2.9% y/y decrease.
    • YTD sales totaled 1,313,000 units, reflecting a 7.2% y/y increase.
  • Honda announced that its October sales were 147,716 units, reflecting a y/y increase of 6.5%.
    • Sales of the Accord, Crider, Vezel, Civic, CR-V and XR-V exceeded 10,000 units. The Civic topped 20,000 units in monthly sales for the fifth consecutive month from June to October. Sales of the Accord, Odyssey, CR-V, Inspire and Elysion, all of which are equipped with the SPORT HYBRID, a highly efficient double-motor hybrid power system, totaled 15,373 units. YTD sales totaled 1,271,286 units, reflecting a 15.2% y/y increase.
  • On November 6, Mazda announced that sales in October reached 19,882 units, reflecting a 9.1% y/y decrease. YTD sales totaled 181,624 units.

Meanwhile, to add insult to injury, China’s Passenger Car Association said on Friday that NEV deliveries fell for a fourth straight month, down 45% in October as a result of subsidy cuts occurring while the global consumer remains under pressure.

China is considering cutting back on subsidies for electric vehicles, which have been the sole silver lining (if you can even call it that) over the last 12-18 months for the industry. The country has accounted for about half of the world’s sales of EVs and the last time the government cut subsidies, it triggered the first drop in EV sales on record.

That drop could arguably come at the most devastating time for China and the rest of the global auto industry, should it happen now. 

end
China
Pork hyperinflation is sending the Chinese consumer price index soaring
(zerohedge)

Pork Hyperinflation Sends Chinese Consumer Prices Soaring Most In 7 Years

The bizarre disconnect at the heart of China’s market pricing engine is getting bigger with every passing month.

Whereas in the 2009-2015 period, China’s consumer and producer (or wholesale) prices tended to track each other largely tick for tick, sometime in the beginning of 2016, roughly when global leaders decided at the Shanghai Accord to reflate the global economy by unleashing a massive Chinese credit impulse…

… China’s PPI soared higher, which in turn allowed China to rapidly export inflation across the globe, prompting central banks to confuse China’s latest credit reflation blast with a coordinated global recovery and tighten financial conditions, something which at the end of 2018 they promptly realized was a mistake after global markets tumbled, resulting in the latest global wave of coordinated central bank easing.

 

Well, fast forward to today when overnight China reported that with the tailwind of its latest credit boost long gone, those all important – for Chinese corporate profits and global reflation – producer prices (PPI) fell by 1.6% in October, more than the 1.5% estimate, and above September’s 1.2% decline, and the lowest number since mid-2016. Inflation in the petroleum industry slowed the most, followed by coal mining.

“Persistent deflation in the industrial sector squeezes profitability – reducing leeway for investment and hiring,” said Bloomberg economist David Qu, confirming that China’s economy is poised for a sub-6% GDP print in the coming months.

Meanwhile, in a continuation of China “facing the worst of both worlds” which we first discussed in August, China’s consumer prices (CPI) inflation picked up further to 3.8% year-on-year in October, rising to a seven year high (the most since January 2012) and breaching the official target/ceiling (3%) for the first time since November 2013. In month-on-month terms, headline CPI inflation accelerated to a stunning +9.2% SAAR in October from +5.1% in September.

The bizarre divergence between soaring CPI and tumbling PPI which first emerged two years ago, was largely predicated by the ongoing surge in food inflation, which accelerated to a jarring +15.5% Y/Y in October from +11.2% Y/Y in September, the biggest annual increase since just before the financial crisis …

… primarily on what is now rampant pork hyperinflation due to China’s neverending fight with African swine fever (i.e, “pig ebola”), as pork inflation is up a stunning 101.3% Y/Y in October from 69.3% Y/Y in September, pushing up headline CPI inflation by around 0.8pp relative to September. Meanwhile, real, unadjusted pork prices have risen even higher, as wholesale pork prices have soared by a stunning 173% YTD!

Most of the month’s inflation surge was purely due to pork prices: Non-food CPI inflation edged down to +0.9% Y/Y in October, while fuel costs dropped by -15.1% in October, down further from the -12.1% drop in September. As a result, core inflation (headline CPI excluding food and energy) was flat at 1.5% yoy in October, with an annualized sequential increase of 1.8%.

Of course, as the African Spring of 2011 showed, soaring food prices are all that’s needed for a massive popular uprising, and whereas China’s NBS is merrily adjusting its various other price inputs, the fact that China’s pork prices are now openly hyperinflating making the country’s favorite food increasingly more unaffordable, the risk is that the local population snaps and finally revolts against a government that is failing in its most basic function: keeping 1.5 billion Chinese well-fed.

Making matters worse, China’s runaway food prices have a long way to go: as Goldman notes, “headline CPI inflation is likely to rise further in the coming months.”

High frequency data suggest year-on-year inflation in pork prices has continued to accelerate notably in early November. Prices in fresh vegetables have also started to pick up in early November in year-on-year terms, although inflation in fresh fruits has moderated further. Elevated inflation could be one factor that may limit the room for front-end rates to decline in coming months. And inflation expectation would also be important to watch, as PBOC officials suggested recently, to assess the impact of inflation on rates policy (whether to raise repo rates). According to the PBOC survey, the inflation expectation index (a diffusion index) ticked up in Q3, but was still relatively modest.

Further commenting on the latest numbers, Macquarie Securities economist Larry Hu said that “the surging CPI inflation is due to supply (mostly pork price) and the worsening PPI deflation is due to demand,” adding that “ideally monetary policy should respond to demand instead of supply. In reality, the PBOC is likely to strike a balance between PPI and pork price.”

Which brings us to the biggest issue facing the PBOC: how to trigger an economic boost without sending near record food prices even higher. While last week the PBOC modestly, and at long last, cut one of the central bank’s main lending rates (the MLF) by a tiny 5bps after the Fed had ease three times in the past 4 months …

… analysts are concerned that the PBOC will likely refrain from aggressive intervention in the market until food inflation is under control, amid fears of growing social discontent over pork hyperinflation. As Bloomberg also notes, “while further monetary stimulus would help companies struggling with weakening demand, deflation and higher tariffs, even faster inflation would hurt households more.”

Which is why Beijing’s hands remain tied from injecting another debt bomb into the economy in hopes of sending yet another global reflationary burst.

And while the biggest domestic risk to China is getting soaring pork inflation under control, the biggest threat to the rest of of the world is the continued deflation in PPI. As Bloomberg separately writes, “in a fresh challenge to the ability of global central banks to revive inflation, China’s slowest growth in almost three decades and cheaper energy costs have left manufacturing prices declining since July.  While cheaper goods may be a boon to foreign consumers as Christmas nears, the overall effect is a potential spiral of falling prices worldwide as companies everywhere are forced to compete with Chinese rivals to protect profits. That would add further tension to the U.S.-China trade war.

“Inflation is increasingly driven by global factors, and in particular, by waves of disinflation emanating from China,” said Stephen Jen at Eurizon SLJ Capital. “This is related to China exporting its overhang of capacity” which has been exposed by weak domestic demand, trade tensions with the U.S., and lack of economic stimulus.

They expect the recent worsening of the producer price index to weigh on inflation rates in the U.S. and Europe, similar to what happened in 2014-16. Producer prices in Germany, Japan, South Korea and the U.S. are already negative.

Translation: China is about to begin dumping its excess goods in the global market in earnest, leading to a new round of trade anger, as global markets are flooded with Chinese products, crippling local producers, crushing purchasing power and wages, and resulting in fury at China’s trade practices.

We only bring this up because in an amusing twist recently, global capital markets have convinced themselves that the US-China trade war is somehow about to find a happy ending. Spoiler alert: it won’t.

end
Hong Kong
This sent the Hang Sang down 700 points as a protester was shot by police during moring clashes.
(zerohedge)

Caught On Video: Hong Kong Protester Shot By Police During Morning Clashes; Hang Seng Tumbles

Hong Kong police opened fire and hit at least one protester on Monday, the SCMP reported, as chaos erupted across the city a day after officers fired tear gas to break up demonstrations that are entering their sixth month.

Police fired live rounds at protesters on the eastern side of Hong Kong island, and local Cable TV said one protester was wounded when police opened fire.  Video footage showed a protester lying in a pool of blood with his eyes wide open. Police also pepper-sprayed and subdued a woman nearby as plastic crates were thrown at officers, the video shared on social media showed.

A longer clip of the shooting is below. Reader discretion advised.

Police issued a statement saying that radical protesters had set up barricades at multiple locations across the city and warned the demonstrators to “stop their illegal acts immediately.” They did not comment immediately on the apparent shooting.

Services on some train and subway lines were also disrupted early on Monday, with riot police deployed near stations and shopping malls. Many universities cancelled classes on Monday and there were long traffic jams in some areas.

Monday’s violence followed a 24th straight weekend of anti-government unrest as activists blocked roads and trashed shopping malls across Hong Kong’s New Territories and Kowloon peninsula.

Today’s chaos follows the death last Friday of Hong Kong University of Science and Technology student Chow Tsz-lok, days after he fell in a car park near a police dispersal operation where tear gas had been fired.

Protesters are angry about what they see as police brutality and meddling by Beijing in the former British colony’s freedoms, guaranteed by the “one country, two systems” formula put in place when the territory returned to Chinese rule in 1997. Meanwhile, China has repeatedly warned that continued violence could be met with a ground invasion of Hong Kong, although so far Beijing has demonstrated an unwillingness to escalate.

The Hang Seng stock index tumbled more than 2% in early trading following news of the shooting.

end
Late this Morning/China
This is not good for global growth: China’s credit creation unexpectedly collapses
(zerohedge)

China’s Credit Creation Unexpectedly Collapses At The Worst Possible Time

Over the weekend, we observed that China’s slumping wholesale inflation, or PPI, which is so critical for corporate profits and sparking benign, demand-driven inflation in the economy, and which in October tumbled to a three year low assuring that Chinese dumping and exports of deflation will only further depress global reflation efforts…

… will not reverse until Beijing injects another elephant-dose of credit into the Chinese financial system.

Just 48 hours later we can confirm that there is zero risk of either a sharp spike in Chinese inflation, or of China flooding the financial system with cheap credit – as it has been known to do during key economic inflection points – because according to the PBOC, China’s credit growth slowed far more than expected in October to the weakest pace since at least 2017 as a continued collapse in shadow banking, weak corporate demand for credit and seasonal effects all signaled that efforts to prop up the economy through bank lending still aren’t working.

The central bank reported that Aggregate Financing, China’s revised version of the old Total Social Financing, was a paltry 618.9 billion yuan ($88 billion), missing the median conservative estimate of 950 billion yuan, and down a whopping 72% from the 2.27 trillion yuan in September and 737.4 billion yuan in the same month of 2018. Today’s print was the lowest in the revised series history which goes back to the start of 2017, and only a slightly lower print in the old series prevents today’s total credit injection from being the lowest since 2016!

New CNY loans of 661.3 billion yuan also missed the consensus print of 800 billion yuan, resulting in outstanding CNY loan growth of 11.9% annualized in October, well below the September 13.3% annualized print. As has been the case recently, two thirds of yuan-denominated bank loans were borrowed by households in the month, while the borrowing by non-financial companies was the least in amount since August 2016.

But it was China’s shadow banking that was the main culprit for today’s steep total credit drop, which tumbled by 234 billion in October, the second biggest one month drop of the year, and the 7th drop in a row as well 18th of the past 20! Specifically, entrusted loans fell by 66.7 billion yuan, trust loans declined 62.4 billion yuan and undiscounted bankers acceptances fell 105.3 billion yuan.

While bank lending traditionally falls in October compared to the previous month as the week-long National Day holiday affects business activity, the continued collapse in shadow banking as well as the completion of local government special-purpose debt sales has magnified the downward trend, resulting in a far lower credit impulse to the economy than China so desperately needs.

Separately, China’s all important M2 rose 8.4% yoy in October, in line with expectations, and just shy of the all time low print.

“The data itself is kind of expected in terms of the trend,” Commerzbank analyst Zhou Hao said, nothing however that the market is concerned about two things – that it hit another record low (for the current series) and that this means that banks seem to have no place to funnel money after lending to smaller and private firms earlier waned. The deflationary omen also pushed China’s 10 year government bond yield lower by 5 basis points to 3.22%.

Others, paradoxically, saw in the data which confirms that the PBOC is unable to dramatically expand credit a sign that the PBOC would instead seek to ease further, even though as we noted over the weekend, soaring Chinese pork prices make that very unlikely: “The anemic credit data — coming on the heels of data showing deepening deflation in the industrial sector — reinforce our expectations that the PBOC will continue to ease monetary policy” said Bloomberg economists Chang Shu and David Qu.

Meanwhile, as Goldman notes, despite the targeted RRR cut on October 15, the 7-day repo rate remained relatively high at 2.8% in October. As such, the major tool of loosening is more likely to be administrative measures (i.e. window guidance) to boost broad credit growth. The administrative pressures which can affect both the supply of and demand for credit likely came down in October after the government tried successfully to boost September credit and activity data.

Adding insult to injury, and limiting the central bank’s ability to ease more, the latest high frequency data indicate November CPI data may reach an even higher level on a year-on-year basis. But the weak TSF and expected weaker activity growth data will likely put policy makers under more pressures to keep policy stance loose. As a result, Goldman expects frontloading of government bond quota next year to this year though the size of the issuance may be relatively limited because of

  1. concerns about inflation,
  2. policy prudence to ensure the investment projects are economically sensible, and
  3. better prospects of the US-China trade negotiations.

For now however, expect more disappointment, with Wall Street and Beijing all bracing for a the first sub 6% GDP, (5.9% to be specific) print on record as early as 4Q.

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

UK/Saturday

Moody’s downgrades the UK on a negative outlook for Brexit

(zerohedge)

Moody’s Downgrades UK Outlook To Negative On “Brexit Paralysis”

 

Moody’s downgraded its outlook on Britain’s debt (currently rated Aa2) to negative from stable after the market close on Friday, saying Brexit had been a catalyst for an erosion in the country’s institutional strength, perceived “material deterioration” in UK governance, and that the country’s ability to set policy has weakened in the Brexit era along with its commitment to fiscal discipline.

The outlook cut represents a catch down to its competitors: the UK is currently rated AA by S&P and AA- at Fitch Ratings, with both companies having the UK on negative watch.

“It would be optimistic to assume that the previously cohesive, predictable approach to legislation and policymaking in the UK will return once Brexit is no longer a contentious issue, however that is achieved,” the ratings agency said adding that “the increasing inertia and, at times, paralysis that has characterized the Brexit-era policymaking process has illustrated how the capability and predictability that has traditionally distinguished the U.K.’s institutional framework has diminished.”

“The decline in institutional strength appears to Moody’s to be structural in nature and likely to survive Brexit given the deep divisions within society and the country’s political landscape,” Moody’s added.

 

The decision to put the UK on negative outlook even as Moody’s affirmed Britain’s Aa2 long-term issuer and senior unsecured ratings comes one month before an election that is likely to determine the future of Brexit. While the election will have a big impact on Brexit, this week has seen both sides escalate their spending pledges, drawing election battle lines with plans to end a decade of U.K. austerity.

As Bloomberg observes, there hasn’t been a U.K. downgrade by a major rating company since September 2017, when Moody’s downgraded the UK to Aa2, the country’s lowest ever rating .

Upon the announcement, the pound dipped 10 pips from 1.2784 to 1.2774.

END
European bond markets are breaking as yields skyrocket.  We now have the insane with Greece yields less than Italy.
(zerohedge)

Broke Bond Markets Mounting: Italy Surpasses Greece As Europe’s Riskiest Sovereign

As yields soar optimistically around the world, pushing negative-yielding debt below $12 trillion – the lowest since June, but hey, it’s still $12,000,000,000,000 of insanity, central-planners’ incessant meddling with global markets has sparked another WTF-moment in capital market history.

A mere twelve trillion dollars worth of nonsense debt remains…

Source: Bloomberg

 

And, as The FT reports, for the first time since 2008, Greece has lost the dubious distinction of being the riskiest government borrower in the eurozone after its bond yields dipped below Italy’s…

Source: Bloomberg

Greek bonds have soared this year as investors hungry for yields have snapped up debt from former euro area crisis spots — a trend that gained further momentum after S&P’s upgraded Athens’ credit rating to BB- late last month.

As FT notes, the small size of Greece’s bond market – much of its enormous debt load is in the form of low interest loans to the EU and IMF following a series of bailouts – means there is less immediate pressure on government finances compared with Italy, which relies solely on markets to refinance its own huge debt pile.

“We still hold some Greek bonds based on our view that the economy has bottomed,” said Chris Jeffery, a fixed-income strategist at Legal & General Investment Management.

“But much more important is the debt structure. There are very few cash flow requirements for the next five years. With Italy, you always have the rollover risk.”

5Y Greek bond yields topped 60% in early 2012, they are now below 0.50%!!

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, as the chart above shows, Italian debt has also performed strongly during the summer’s global bond rally, but some investors remain wary due to the effects of last year’s political tensions.

However, the real fear – that of Euro redenomination – has now switched from Italy to Spain…

Source: Bloomberg

Although S&P rates its debt several notches higher than Greece’s, Italy has a negative outlook on the rating (but is still investment grade), but given the chart above, we suggest all eyes should be focused on Spain for now for the next round of EU fireworks.

Of course, with Lagarde sure that negative-rates are a good thing, who knows where the next bank-bomb lies.

end
UK
Farge has some common sense..he will not challenge Tory held seats
(zerohedge)

In Major Reversal, Farage Says Brexit Party Won’t Challenge Tory-Held Seats

After initially insisting that the Brexit Party would contest more than 600 seats in the upcoming UK general election and denying rumors about a possible “alliance” with the Tories, Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage has back-tracked, big time.

Instead of challenging every seat, the BP’s election strategy will leave out 317 Tory-held seats won during the last election, increasing the chances of a pro-Brexit majority. Now, the BP will focus on Labour-held seats, particularly seats situated in districts that voted in favor of ‘Leave’.

Nigel Farage

@Nigel_Farage

Announcing The Brexit Party’s general election strategy.

https://www.pscp.tv/w/cJlFDDF4blFybm5XYURvUVl8MU9kS3JMeWdxZHlKWNtF68MSNsUZAlGQ68n2woN0HhwyQ6xkVbHrcnPcuhMX 

The Brexit Party @brexitparty_uk

The Brexit Party’

Last week, Farage sent GBP tumbling after claiming his party intended to field more than 600 candidates, some of whom would go head-to-head with Tory incumbents. Without an alliance between the two pro-Brexit parties, pundits claimed, Farage could risk splitting the vote, handing the premiership to Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn.

Unsurprisingly, GBP soared on Monday once Farage made clear that he and the Brexit Party have decided that a truce with the Tories is the best way forward: GBP traded just under $1.29 on the news, its highest level of the session.

 

 

Farage said that the alternative would be a hung parliament, which could lead to a “disastrous” second referendum. The general election will be held next month.

END

UK

Britain’s economy basically grinds to a halt

(zeorhedge)

Britain Narrowly Avoids Recession As Economy Grinds To Halt

On an annual basis, Britain’s economy expanded at the slowest rate since the first quarter of 2010.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said UK GDP only grew by 1.0% in July-September, compared with 3Q18.

Office for National Statistics

@ONS

0.3% increase in GDP in Q3 2019 with services up 0.4%, manufacturing unchanged and construction up 0.6% http://ow.ly/FutI50x7oNU

View image on Twitter

Office for National Statistics

@ONS

GDP grew 1.0% in Q3 2019 compared with Q3 2018 http://ow.ly/SIZC30pRVTt

21 people are talking about this

The economic slowdown has successfully transmitted weakness from manufacturing into the services sector.

Britain’s service sector only grew by .40% in July-September, signaling a broad-based slowdown is underway.

A manufacturing recession continues to damage the UK economy, and policymakers have so far failed to offer the right medicine if that is fiscal or monetary policy to correct the slowdown.

“Production was flat in the three months to September 2019; this sector has not seen positive rolling three-month growth since April 2019. Manufacturing, the largest sub-sector of production, was also flat in the three months to September 2019,” ONS wrote.

The chart below shows the true nature of the manufacturing slowdown.

The theme coming from the UK this morning is that a recession has been avoided, but that doesn’t mean the economy is out of the woods yet.

Tej Parikh, the chief economist at the Institute of Directors, told The Guardian that the economic slowdown would likely continue through 1Q20.

“The UK economy has been in stop-start mode all year, with growth punctuated by the various Brexit deadlines. Indeed, the pick-up in the third quarter numbers may slightly exaggerate the strength in the economy, with some activity likely to have been brought forward before October 31st. The final quarter of 2019 could be weaker as stockpiles continue to be run down,” Parikh said.

“While high employment has provided some support for the economy, underlying weaknesses in investment and productivity still need addressing. With uncertainty likely to persist and a continued slowdown in global markets, the onus is on the new government to stimulate economic activity and move the UK beyond its current yo-yo pattern of growth.”

CNBC’s Joumanna Bercetche said the UK economy narrowly missed a “technical recession.”

Joumanna Bercetche

@CNBCJou

So the UK has skirted a technical recession q3 0.3% vs -0.2% in q2. Slowest YoY growth in 9 years tho

Investment and Manufacturing continue to drag

Kallum Pickering of German bank Berenberg told The Guardian that Britain’s economy has steadily decelerated since the 2016 Brexit referendum.

“Intensifying Brexit uncertainties over the last three years have gradually eroded the UK’s underlying growth momentum. After averaging 0.6% in 2015, the average quarterly pace of growth has slowed each year since then. Down from 0.38% in 2018, the quarterly pace has slowed to 0.22% for the first three quarters of 2019 – barely half of the UK’s potential rate (c0.4%)

The slowdown highlights the pains of political uncertainties linked to Brexit and the upcoming general election on December 12th.

Despite the rebound in real GDP, at 0.5%, the quarterly pace of nominal GDP growth was the slowest of the year so far,” Pickering said.
*charts

Considering the broad-based slowdown across the economy, the UK might not be able to avoid a technical recession in the quarters ahead.

 end
Bill Blain highlights too companies that are too big to fail: Boeing and HSBC

a good read…

(zerohedge)

Blain: “When There Is Too Much Cash The Market Will Remain Irrational For Longer”

Blain’s Morning Porridge, submitted by Bill Blain of Shard Capital

“Johnny Turk he was ready, he primed himself well. He rained us with bullets and showered us with shell. In five minutes flat he’d blown us all to hell. . ”

Last week stock markets staged a spectacular rally off the back of the “improved” trade outlook. Bonds have reversed. But despite equities sitting at all-time highs, it’s time to step back and focus on where this goes next.  Next few days will see the US impeachment hearings ratchet up – raising the prospect of market dislocation.  I’ve been reading missives from Republican and Democrat supporting chums and the issue of either getting behind Trump (no matter how bad he is) to keep the Democrats out, or TINA to getting rid of Trump. Its look as polarising as Brexit has become in the UK.  The threat of politics overtaking reality is worrying – and the market doesn’t seem that bothered about the implications for The US’ credibility, the Fed and the dollar.  Are we bothered? Slightly.

Political instability remains the name of the game from the US, Hong Kong, The UK, and this morning, Spain. (And, add Italy and Germany to the list.)

One of the key factors driving stocks higher in the wake of a trade “accommodation” rather than a peace treaty is momentum – markets want to go higher, anticipating growth. But the market is equally driven by the volume of cash ready to be thrown at it.  There is no shortage of ready liquidity – in this sense of too much easy money chasing too few assets, rather than liquidity: “who wants to buy this” conundrum.  When there is too much cash around the market can remain irrational for longer…

Following the WeWork fiasco, and reality the Aramco IPO will be a fraught box-of-frogs, and all the other distractions, there is a stack of research and the media commentary about the need for investors to focus away from disruptive tech unicorns, away from regulatory risks, stay shy of IPOs, and focus back on fundamental value stocks.  Sound advice indeed – but what is a value stock?

Interestingly, one article pitching value stocks is accompanied by a photo of HSBC’s logo. I’m intrigued – by what stretch of the imagination could the world’s most complex yet least adequately managed financial institution be considered a fundamental core investment? I suppose there is the argument that no matter how many times politicians and central bankers say banks are not too big to fail, some remain will so.

HSBC might qualify, but on what grounds?  HSBC probably lacks the imagination to go spectacularly bust, but its very dullness and dunderheadedness ensures it will continue to stumble from disappointment to disappointment.  The dividend yield at 6.9% might be a good enough reason to keep buying – but I want to invest in good companies, not ones that get rich because of a very small niche. In HSBC’s case, it’s Hong Kong – which might yet be a trigger for a reassessment of the its many problems – the dismal quality of its customer offering, its second division investment bank, and its failure to leverage off its corporate base – but it’s more likely it will just dwaddle along. It’s down 26% since Jan 2019 – while the FTSE is down a mere 6% while the S&P is up 16%  – but there is not much in the HSBC action to suggest any volatility from the rising tensions in Hong Kong, despite the former territory being the foundation of its fortunes.

Even more interesting is Boeing – I’ve been bearish on them since well before the series of crashes that led to the grounding of the entire B-737 Max series: the final iteration of  a 50-year old-plane the company was milking and expected to make bazillions from.  I guarantee Boeing’s failure to innovate a replacement plane will be the subject of multiple MBA case-studies.  The planemaker faces mounting problems – its safety reputation has been compromised, its executive leadership is beleaguered, its new aviation project – the B777x is losing orders and timing on its introduction looks to have stalled, plus it’s got build problems across the fleet. It looks like a cataclysm of cascading failures. The Stock Crash 20% in the wake of the second crash, but it’s been range trading since then – suggesting nothing particularly wrong… (for the largest stock in the Dow.)

If HSBC is a banking behemoth too big to fail, then Boeing is safe because it’s part of an impenetrable duopoly. There are only 2 global plane makers:  Boeing and Airbus.  There is little chance anyone will be able to design, build and sell a 2000 new regional aircraft in the next 10-years that any airline would really want to buy.  Logistically it’s impossible.  The Chinese and the Russians both claim to have domestic aircraft ready, but if you want to fly on something Russian, that’s your call.  The Chinese plane is decades behind modern designs.

Airlines want two things: aircraft that are efficient, and aircraft with safety records passengers will be happy to fly – which is going to be a massive ask for Boeing – IF they ever get the B-737 Max back in the air.  But even more than these two factors – they need aircraft. Which keeps Boeing in the frame.

Boeing and HSBC are just two stocks that illustrate some of the alternatives to tech unicorns maybe aint that great either.  HSBC was once my top stock pick – but now it just annoys me.  Boeing because there probably should be some executives in jail for not only putting personal rewards over safety, but for abysmal decision making – they should have built a new plane.

There are other stocks we should be asking questions about – Apple; how much can it spend in streaming wars and acquiring customers? It’s made a bet that consumers will remain loyal to its iPhones, Macbooks, and the rest of the Apple ecosystem. Does it matter they don’t seem to have anything bright shiny and new in the development process?  Probably not – its evolved.  Microsoft? Well, that’s dull, boring and predictable. Lets buy it.

The thing that interests me most is competition. I expect the TV streaming market to get really messy because of competition and new entrants.  Just like competition in ride-hailing hides any additional value-added Lyft and Uber might have had.  I suppose the secret is the one the Railway Barrons of the 1860s discovered: move early, ride the upside and get out before the inevitable crash.

Europe

The Spanish election result should have surprised no one. The populist pendulum has swung to the right.  The socialist government lost seats and will be forced into a compromise alliance.  No matter. Spain won’t break the Euro. That’s what Italy is for….

However, it does raise a new issue to be concerned about: Christine Lagarde’s chance of success.  The received wisdom is Lagarde is a highly experienced political operative who is going to sweep in and elevate the ECB into something new – a coordinated, responsive European central bank with a united front on improving the Eurozone economy. The theory holds the ECB can do without a qualified central banker and unite around her leadership to agree fiscal union and new policies. That’s the vision…

What’s the reality?

She faces almost certain Political push back.  Populism across Europe has not been the shock we thought it might earlier this decade. Left-wing parties rose, failed to deliver, and slid again. Now, it’s the right wing that seems on the ascendancy. They tend to strike a more nationalistic tone, wanting to take control – which means demanding a say within the Euro. Heaven Forbid!

Calls for the ECB to actually hold named votes on policy are a push back from the Draghi era. But the push by some nations for the ECB to be seen as accountable, and not to Brussels, but to their countries is not going to help. It’s not a recipe for swift-decision making. It will play to both right-wing parties and to delayers – like the Germans, the Dutch and others keen not to bankroll fiscal profligacy in Southern Europe. The bottom line is Lagarde is going to be herding cats at her first ECB meetings.

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

LEBANON

Last week Lebanon finally opened their banks with limited withdrawals and no exchange for foreign currency. Now citizens are storming the banks demanding their deposits

(zerohedge)

“Clients With Guns” Are Demanding Deposits From Crisis-Stricken Lebanese Banks

Here we go as predicted: the Lebanese central bank attempts to prevent a “panic mode” scramble on the part of the public to remove all deposits, and the recently imposed (unofficial) regulations geared toward staving off capital flight are predictably failing fast, per Reuters:

Clients with guns have entered banks and security guards have been afraid to speak to them as when people are in a state like this you don’t know how people will act.”

 

People queue outside a bank in Sidon, Lebanon the prior Friday, Nov. 1 via Reuters/Daily Sabah

Lebanon’s private banks reopened a week ago on Friday following a two-week closure due to massive anti-government protests which created gridlock across the country’s main cities, including closure of other public institutions such as schools.

The Nov. 1 bank re-openings followed Prime Minister Saad Hariri’s resignation last week, which the some one million demonstrators flooding Lebanon’s streets since early last month have touted as a ‘success’; however, the economy remains on the brink of collapse, given growing fears of a major run on the banks.

Since reopening banks have blocked most transfers abroad and maintained tight controls over hard-currency withdrawals, policies which have led to reports of threats against bank staff. Some of these heated encounters are being filmed and posted to the internet. Likely the situation is about to become explosive into next week after the banks close for the weekend.

“This is our money!… We can’t get our money – you have money in the banks and you’re not giving it to the people! You’re stealing from us!” (our translation) the man in the below video shouts inside his bank. 

Bassem@BBassem7

Situation in Lebanese Banks is extremely dangerous, shortage to lack of US dollars for depositors. https://twitter.com/demoisellemm/status/1192799959378276353 

محاسن@demoisellemm

ما بقا حدا يطلع يتهضمن ويفرجينا دولاراته#يسقط_حكم_المصرف

Embedded video

Chaotic scenes played out from the moment the banks reopened, as Lebanon’s Daily Sabah described:

Large queues starting forming outside banks from early morning and people rushed in as soon as doors opened to cash in their salaries and make transfers.

Tellers struggled to handle the flood of customers trying to cram inside bank branches, as queues spilt onto the streets.

And now with the situation getting increasingly dangerous, the crisis could be compounded given bank staff are pondering a strike amid the broader protests still underway, and which have been raging for over the past month:

Bank staff are considering going on strike, he said.

Clients are becoming very aggressive; the situation is very critical and our colleagues cannot continue under the current circumstances,” added Hajj, whose union has around 11,000 members, just under half of the total banking staff.

“Anything that touches the liquidity of the bank is being restricted,” one Lebanese banker told Reuters.

Ali Reslan@Ali___lb

bank friday

View image on Twitter

Fights and riots have been reported both inside and outside commercial banks. Tellers and managers have reported being assaulted as exasperated customers demand their money:

nadine@nadineabdulwah

مدير bank od beirut يعتدي على المودع ريمون خوري

Embedded video

The World Bank weighed in on Friday, urging leaders in Beirut to form new Cabinet within a week, citing risks to Lebanon’s stability as “deeply concerning,” according to the AP.

Given the country’s high unemployment and extreme lack of confidence in the Lebanese Lira, citizens are understandably enraged at not accessing their dollars, and are apparently now taking matters into their own hands:

Some banks have lowered the cap on maximum withdrawals from dollar accounts this week, according to customers and bank employees. At least one bank cut credit card limits from $10,000 to $1,000 this week, customers said.

…One bank told a customer that a weekly withdrawal cap of $2,500 had been slashed to $1,500.

 

Vandalized ATM machine in Lebanon’s northern port city of Tripoli this week, via Middle East Online. 

The massive anti-government protests, focused in large part on rooting out endemic corruption, comes after Lebanon has in recent years suffered a severe slowdown in capital flows, and difficulty of importers securing dollars at the pegged exchange rate, as well as periodic collapse of public services – due to frequent strikes, work stoppages, and lack of public funding.

The tiny Middle East country currently has a crippling debt of $86 billion – roughly 150% of the gross domestic product – and some 80% of that debt is believed owed either to the central bank or to Lebanese commercial banks.

end
IRAN
IRAN just announces a new oil field which advances its reserves by 1/3.  The discovery is approximately 53 billion barrels of oil
(zerohedge)

Iran Finds New Oil Field With Over 50 Billion Barrels: Rouhani

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani has made an unusual announcement distinct from his normal emphasis on mere ‘defiance’ of US sanctions; instead, he is now boasting of the discovery of a new oil field with over 50 billion barrels of crude in the country’s south.

“I am telling the White House that in the days when you sanctioned the sale of Iranian oil and pressured our nation, the country’s dear workers and engineers were able to discover 53 billion barrels of oil in a big field,” Rouhani said in a speech Sunday.

 

Rouhani during his Sunday speech in the city of Yazd, via Iranian Presidency/AP

He described that the new discovery made in Iran’s southern Khuzestan province, the country’s domestic energy and oil production heartland, would hugely bolster Iran’s proven reserves of roughly 150 billion.

The Associated Press reports this as “a find that could boost the country’s proven reserves by a third as it struggles to sell energy abroad over U.S. sanctions.”

And further, Rouhani appearing as if to quash any doubt, described specifics according to an AP summary of his words:

The new oil field could become Iran’s second-largest field after one containing 65 billion barrels in Ahvaz. The field is 2,400 square kilometers (925 square miles), with the deposit some 80 meters (260 feet) deep, Rouhani said.

Despite having the world’s fourth-largest proven deposits of crude oil, Iran has struggled to evade Washington sanctions on its energy sector and to sell to other countries.

 

The new find is in the southern Khuzestan province, the country’s oil heartland. 

China, once seen as a major purchaser through which Iran could weather the US “maximum pressure” storm, has also found its sanctions busting companies target of White House sanctions of late.

The boastful announcement from Rouhani if confirmed could inspire a last ditch effort of other signatories to the 2015 JCPOA — Germany, France, Britain, Russia and China — to step up and act with firmer resolve against US punitive threats.

end
Iran
this will certainly bother the USA and Israel
(zerohedge)

Iran Is Blowing Past Enriched Uranium Limits, New IAEA Report Confirms

The nuclear watchdog responsible for policing the Iran nuclear deal, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), confirmed in a report Monday that Iran has started enriching uranium at its underground Fordow site, in but the latest escalation in a trend which shows no sign of the sanctioned country slowing down on its vow to blow past limits set by the 2015 JCPOA.

According to the IAEA’s quarterly report, Iran’s enriched uranium levels and its purity “remain above the deal’s limits” after months ago Iran’s leaders threatened do to just this unless Washington lifts its crippling sanctions, which have left the country struggling to export its oil.

“Tehran is also enriching with more advanced centrifuges and enriching at Fordow, which the deal forbids,” Reuters reports of the new findings.

 

Reactor building at the Russian-built Bushehr nuclear power plant, via Iran International Photo Agency.

This after early last week the country’s nuclear chief Ali Akbar Salehi announced on state television Iran is launching a new array of 30 advanced IR-6 centrifuges, bringing the total number to 60 IR-6 advanced centrifuges, in violation of its commitments under the nuclear deal.

Leaders in Tehran are currently feeling emboldened after President Hassan Rouhani made public in a speech on Sunday the discovery of a new oil field with over 50 billion barrels of crude in the country’s south.

“I am telling the White House that in the days when you sanctioned the sale of Iranian oil and pressured our nation, the country’s dear workers and engineers were able to discover 53 billion barrels of oil in a big field,” Rouhani stated confidently.

But despite having the world’s fourth-largest proven deposits of crude oil, now set to increase by one-third based on estimates of the new crude find in Khuzestan province, Iran has struggled to evade Washington sanctions on its energy sector and sell to other countries. Even China, once seen as a major purchaser through which Iran could weather the US “maximum pressure” storm, has also found its sanctions busting companies the target of White House punitive actions.

Underscoring the urgency of the situation, IAEA officials on Monday said “it is essential for Iran to continue interactions with the agency,” after Iran also expanded its number of centrifuges enriching uranium at Natanz facility, in what could soon see the nuclear program enter a point of no return.

Specifically, according to IAEA figures cited in Bloomberg, the Islamic Republic’s enriched uranium stockpile rose 65% in the last quarter to 372kg, though the deal officially restricts this to no more than 300kg. In terms of purity Iran is now believed enriching up to level of 4.5%, while the deal permits 3.67%.

6.Global Issues

 

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

BRAZIL

Brazil’s leftist Lula freed on a Supreme Court ruling

(zerohedge)

Brazil’s Leftist Icon Lula Freed From Federal Prison After Supreme Court Ruling

Former Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, known as Lula, was ordered released from prison on Friday, after the Supreme Court ruled on Thursday to end mandatory imprisonment for convicts who lose their first appeal.

Lula, a celebrated leftist icon in Latin America, was freed after a year-and-a-half behind bars due to what his supporters say was a “politically motivated” prosecution from the right-wing government.

He had been sentenced to a total of eight years and 10 months after being convicted of taking bribes from engineering firms as part of the sweeping anti-corruption “Car Wash” investigation.

 

Via Lula.com.br/Ricardo Stuckert

At the time police said they had evidence he benefited from a kick-back scheme at state oil firm Petroleo Brasileiro SA (Petrobras), receiving payments and luxury real estate. A police statement had alleged, “Ex-president Lula, besides being party leader, was the one ultimately responsible for the decision on who would be the directors at Petrobras and was one of the main beneficiaries of these crimes.”

Lula walked out of federal police headquarters in the southern city of Curitiba after the shock announcement of his release Friday to cheers from a large crowd of supporters, who were mostly wearing and carrying signs in the characteristic Workers’ Party red.

“You don’t know how much you represent me,” the former Brazilian president told the jubilant crowd.

Andrew Fishman

@AndrewDFish

You know who is really pissed right now? Jair Bolsonaro. Sergio Moro. Deltan Dallagnol.

View image on Twitter

Supporters claim as evidence that Lula was “set up” the fact that the very former federal judge who spearheaded the Car Wash investigations which convicted Lula has quickly advanced in Bolsonaro’s administration, as Reuters observes:

Lula and his supporters have also criticized the fact that Sergio Moro, a former federal judge who oversaw the Car Wash probe and convicted Lula, accepted an invitation to become the justice minister of far-right President Jair Bolsonaro, a longtime foe of Lula and key rival in last year’s election.

Journalist Glenn Greenwald, who lives in Brazil, tweeted, “An extraordinary day in Brazil – for the world, given Lula’s stature.”

Lula

@LulaOficial

“Eu saio com muita vontade de voltar a lutar”

Embedded video

In his remarks upon emerging from federal prison, Lula further addressed the crowd of supporters saying,  “They did not imprison a man.” And added, “They wanted to kill an idea. And ideas are not killed.”

* * *

Meanwhile, look who else was ecstatic over the news. “Truth Triumphed in Brazil!” Maduro tweeted as congratulations.

Nicolás Maduro

@NicolasMaduro

¡La Verdad Triunfó en Brasil! En nombre del pueblo de Venezuela, expreso mi más profunda alegría por la liberación de mi hermano y amigo @LulaOficial, quien nuevamente estará en las calles para liderar las causas justas de los brasileños y brasileñas. ¡Viva !

View image on TwitterView image on TwitterView image on Twitter

END

BOLIVIA

Chaos in Bolivia after Morales resigns and he claims he is the victim of a military coup. Bolivia will now go more left??

(zerohedge)

Chaos In Bolivia After President Morales Resigns, Claims He Was Victim Of A Coup

Shortly after the country’s military “urged” him to do so, Bolivian President Evo Morales resigned on Sunday to ease violence that has gripped the South American nation since a disputed election last month, but he stoked fears of further unrest in a country that has been paralyzed by weeks of protests after saying he was the victim of a “coup” and faced arrest.

Morales, who has been in power for nearly 14 years, said in televised comments that he would submit his resignation letter to help restore stability, though he aimed barbs at what he called a “civic coup” and later said police planned to arrest him.

“I resign from my position as president so that (Carlos) Mesa and (Luis Fernando) Camacho do not continue to persecute socialist leaders,” Morales said in the televised address naming the leaders of the opposition.

Steve Herman

@W7VOA

President @evoespueblo announcing resignation. pic.twitter.com/qpOX4gz5WD

Morales said that he decided to leave the post in hopes that his departure would stop the spate of violent attacks against officials and indigenous people, “so that protesters do not continue burning the houses of public officials” and  “kidnapping and mistreating” families of indigenous leaders.

“I am resigning, sending my letter of resignation to the Legislative Assembly,” Morales said, adding that it was his “obligation as indigenous president and president of all Bolivians to seek peace.”

Morales has received a reputation as a staunch defender of socialism and an ardent critic of US foreign policy. The country’s highest court ruled in 2018 that he could run for the fourth time.

Underscoring the ongoing tensions, Morales later said on Twitter that the police had an “illegal” warrant for his arrest and that “violent groups” had attacked his home, according to Reuters, although the local police chief later refuted there was a warrant for Morales’ arrest.

Shortly before Morales announced his resignation, Bolivian TV channels aired footage of what they say was a presidential plane departing from  El Alto International airport. It was reported that the plane took Morales to his political stronghold of Chimoré in the Department of Cochabamba, 300 kilometers east of La Paz, a city where he launched his reelection bid back in May.

Página Siete

@pagina_siete


El avión presidencial arriba a Chimoré en el departamento de Cochabamba.

View image on TwitterView image on Twitter

The resignation of Morales, a leftist icon and the last survivor of Latin America’s “pink tide” of two decades ago, has already sent shockwaves across the region at a time when left-leaning leaders have returned to power in Mexico and Argentina.

Completing a trifecta of resignations, Vice President Álvaro García Linera also resigned, as did Bolivia senate’s president, Adriana Salvatierra.

Steve Herman

@W7VOA

vice president also resigns. pic.twitter.com/5CmVyVXxzz

Echoing Morales, some of his leftist Latin American allies decried the turn of events as a “coup,” including Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, Brazil’s Lula (who last week was released from prison) and Argentine President-elect Alberto Fernandez. Mexican Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrard said his country would offer Morales asylum if he sought it.

Steve Herman

@W7VOA

offers asylum to @evoespueblo. https://twitter.com/m_ebrard/status/1193673565830180865?s=20 

Marcelo Ebrard C.

@m_ebrard

México,de conformidad a su tradición de asilo y no intervención, ha recibido a 20 personalidades del ejecutivo y legislativo de Bolivia en la residencia oficial en La Paz, de así decidirlo ofrceríamos asilo también a Evo Morales.

While Bolivia under Morales enjoyed a period of welcome prosperity, including one of the region’s strongest economic growth rates and its poverty rate was cut in half, his determination to cling to power and seek a fourth term alienated many allies, even among indigenous communities.

* * *

Pressure had been ramping up on Morales since he was declared the winner of the Oct. 20 election. Ahead of today’s announcement, General Williams Kaliman, the head of Bolivia’s armed forces, on Sunday said the military had asked Morales to step down to help restore peace and stability after weeks of protests over the vote. Kaliman added that the military was calling on the Bolivian people to refrain from violence and disorder.

Videos from La Paz, the site of many recent anti-Morales protests, showed crowds cheering after the resignation announcement.

La Razón Digital

@LaRazon_Bolivia


La gente sale a la avenida principal de Obrajes, en , para celebrar la dimisión de @evoespueblo. La gente que circula en sus autos acompaña el festejo con bocinas

Embedded video

After the contested October elections there were rival rallies of Morales’ opponents and supporters throughout the country. While many anti-government protests remained peaceful, others have led to rioting in major cities, clashes with police, and attacks on pro-government politicians. On Saturday, protesters burned the house of Oruro city governor  Víctor Hugo Vásquez, who stood by the president as tensions flared up.

Earlier on Sunday, Morales had agreed to hold new elections after a report from the Organization of American States (OAS), which conducted an audit of the Oct. 20 vote, revealed serious irregularities. The OAS report said that election should be annulled after it had found “clear manipulations” of the voting system that called into question Morales’ win, with a lead of just over 10 points over main rival Carlos Mesa.

Bolivian opposition urged Morales to resign altogether despite his promise of the new elections. While he briefly resisted such calls, branding them “unconstitutional” and an “attempted coup,” the President eventually gave in after the military joined that chorus.

Adding to the chaos resulting from weeks of protests, the resignations of Morales and his vice president meant it was not initially clear who would take the helm of the country pending the results of new elections.

According to Bolivian law, in the absence of the president and vice president, the head of the Senate would normally take over provisionally. However, as noted above, Senate President Adriana Salvatierra also stepped down late on Sunday, leaving an unprecedented power vacuum (which we are confident will be filled quick). Legislators were expected to meet to agree on an interim commission or legislator who would have temporary administrative control of the country, according to a constitutional lawyer who spoke to Reuters.

Morales, speaking at an earlier news conference, had tried to placate critics with a pledge to replace the electoral tribunal for the new vote, though his opponents – already angry that he ran in defiance of term limits – were not assuaged.

The election standoff has dented the image of Morales – who has helmed Bolivia through a period of relative stability and economic growth – and hit the landlocked nation’s economy. His “legacy will be compromised and the region will suffer another impact with consequences well beyond Bolivia,” said Juan Cruz Diaz, managing director of risk advisory Cefeidas Group, referring to Argentina, Chile, Peru, Paraguay and Brazil.

Luis Fernando Camacho, a civic leader from the eastern city of Santa Cruz who has become a symbol of the opposition, said the OAS report on Sunday clearly demonstrated election fraud. He had reiterated his call for Morales to resign.

“Today we won a battle,” Camacho told a crowd of cheering supporters in the capital before Morales’ resignation, though he added more time was needed to repair the constitutional order and democracy. “Only when we can be sure that democracy is solid, then will we go back home.”

U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo had also welcomed the call for a new vote to “ensure free and fair elections.”

Steve Herman

@W7VOA

 

@SecPompeo

Fully support the findings of the @OAS_official report recommending new elections in #Bolivia to ensure a truly democratic process representative of the people’s will. The credibility of the electoral system must be restored.

Steve Herman

@W7VOA

Full statement from @SecPompeo on .

View image on Twitter

As the fall-out from the audit report swept across Bolivia, and as the military pulled its backing, Morales’ support crumbled on Sunday.   Several of his allies resigned, including Mining Minister Cesar Navarro and Chamber of Deputies President Victor Borda, who belongs to Morales’ party. They both cited fear for the safety of their families as the reason for stepping down. Juan Carlos Huarachi, leader of the Bolivian Workers’ Center, a powerful pro-government union, said Morales should stand down if that would help end recent violence.

But the straw that broke the camel’s back is when the police forces also joined anti-government protests, while the military said it would not “confront the people” over the issue. The attorney general’s office also announced it had ordered an investigation with the aim of prosecuting the members of the electoral body and others responsible for the irregularities.

Mesa had also said Morales and his vice president should not preside over the electoral process or be candidates.

Morales, who came to power in 2006 as Bolivia’s first indigenous leader, had defended his election win but said he would adhere to the findings of the OAS audit. “The manipulations to the computer systems are of such magnitude that they must be deeply investigated by the Bolivian State to get to the bottom of and assign responsibility in this serious case,” the preliminary OAS report had said.

So just as some blame Russia when elections don’t go their way, others finds a culprit in computer system manipulations.

Voting in a new election should take place as soon as conditions are in place to guarantee it being able to go ahead, including a newly composed electoral body, the OAS said. The OAS added that it was statistically unlikely that Morales had secured the 10-percentage-point margin of victory needed to win outright.

Morales stressed that his resignation does not mean that the socialist case is defeated.

“It is no betrayal. The struggle continues. We are a people,” he said.

END

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings MONDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1035 UP .0021 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /ALL RED

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 108.93 DOWN 0.243 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2876   UP   0.01151  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/BREXIT EXTENDED TO OCT 31/2019//

USA/CAN 1.3238 UP .0005 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  MONDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE BY 21 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.1035 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 54.21 POINTS OR 1.83% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 724.59 POINTS OR 2.62%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0,64%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 724.59 POINTS OR 2.62%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 54.21 POINTS OR 1.83%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP. 64% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 60.03  POINTS OR 0.26%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1463.30

silver:$16.87-

Early MONDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 1,94% !!! UP 2 IN POINTS from FRIDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 2.42 UP 2  IN BASIS POINTS from FRIDAY night.

USA dollar index early MONDAY morning: 98.18 DOWN 17 CENT(S) from  FRIDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers MONDAY MORNING

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And now your closing MONDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.35% UP 4 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.06%  UO 1   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.43%//UP 3 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:1,26 UP 3 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 83 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES TO –.24% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.50% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR MONDAY

Closing currency crosses for MONDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1039  UP     .0025 or 25 basis points

USA/Japan: 109.06 DOWN .116 OR YEN UP 12  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2859 UP .0098 POUND UP 98  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar UP 6 basis points to 1.3222

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 7.0103    ON SHORE  (DOWN)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  7.0107  (YUAN DOWN)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  5.7774 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.06%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 1 IN basis points from MONDAY at 1.95 % //

very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.42 UP 1 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 98.18 DOWN 17  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for MONDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 30.84  0.42%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 30.19 POINTS OR .23%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 4.12 POINTS 0.07%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 6.20 POINTS or 0.07%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN  44.56 POINTS OR 0.19%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 57.03 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 62.39 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE FALLSS:    63.89  THE CROSS HIGHER BY 0.09 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE LOWER BY 9 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.24 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  56.88//

 

 

BRENT :  62.14

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 1.94…

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.42..

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.1034 ( UP 20   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:109.02 DOWN .156 (YEN UP 16 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 98.20 DOWN 15 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.2854 UP 93  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 5.7741

 

 

the Russian rouble 63.88   down 0.08 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( down 8 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3224 down 1 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  7.0103  (ONSHORE)/

 

 

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 67.0081 (OFFSHORE)

 

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.24%

 

The Dow closed UP 12.96 POINTS OR 0.05%

 

NASDAQ closed DOWN 11.04 POINTS OR 0.13%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  12.82 CLOSED UP .75

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 1.900%//libor dropping like a stone

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

Gold Gagged With Bonds Away But Boeing, Boots, & Apple Save Stocks

So when does the never-ending stock-market pump have its “Leeroy Jenkins” moment?

Chinese markets were ugly overnight (not helped by the chaos in Hong Kong)…

Source: Bloomberg

European markets were mixed with Germany and Italy lower and UK’s FTSE leading…

Source: Bloomberg

The Dow outperformed (for idiosyncratic reasons) as the rest of the US market failed to regain green after weakness overnight…

Boeing, Walgreens Boots, and Apple rescued The Dow from the same fate as the rest of the market today (+150 points between them).

Source: Bloomberg

The SMART Money is not buying this latest melt-up…

Source: Bloomberg

The stock market’s belief in a US-China trade deal remains elevated BUT has faded after last week’s exuberance…

Source: Bloomberg

With bonds closed, momo was free to do its thing and rallied notably diverging from bond ETFs…

Source: Bloomberg

VIX opened with a 13 handle but was quickly pushed back to a 12 handle (though higher on the day)…

But the VIX term structure is now at its steepest since before the XIV massacre in Feb 2018…

Source: Bloomberg

The bond market was closed today for Veterans Day but Treasury Futures chopped around (higher in price, lower in yield), implying around a 1-2bps compression in rates…

Source: Bloomberg

The Dollar ended the day lower, driven by cable gains more than anything else…

Source: Bloomberg

Cable surged higher intraday after Nigel Farage agreed not to contest Tory-centered counties in the general election…

Source: Bloomberg

Offshore Yuan has erased last week’s exuberance over a trade deal…

Source: Bloomberg

Yuan and Stocks decoupled…

Source: Bloomberg

The Chilean Peso plummeted back to record lows amid its constitutional crisis (coup)…

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos are mixed since Friday with Bitcoin Cash and Litecoin higher but Ripple and Bitcoin lower…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin was ugly overnight but bounced back a little intraday…

Source: Bloomberg

Silver surprised to the upside as the dollar fell but gold, crude and copper were lower…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold was battered further today, despite dollar’s weakness…

Source: Bloomberg

To its lowest in over 3 months and below key technical levels (futures bounced off $1450 intraday)…

But silver rebounded stronger than gold…

Finally, for those buying stocks based on a rosy rebound in economic conditions and earnings, think again – it’s all priced in!!

Bottom-Up…

And Top-Down…

For now, its 2013-echoes for the rest of the year… or bust!

Source: Bloomberg

Trade accordingly.

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

Dow Jumps As Boeing Soars On Claims 737 MAX Deliveries “Could” Resume In December

In an emailed statement, Boeing claims that:

“Boeing continues to target FAA certification of the MAX flight control software updates during this quarter.”

“Based on this schedule, it is possible that the resumption of MAX deliveries to airline customers could begin in December, after certification, when the FAA issues an Airworthiness Directive rescinding the grounding order.”

“In parallel, we are working towards final validation of the updated training requirements, which must occur before the MAX returns to commercial service, and which we now expect to begin in January

Boeing shares went vertical on the headline…

And that dragged The Dow higher…

Judging by the fact that Southwest just puhsed off any re-use of 737MAX until March, we suspect the market is a little ahead of itself here.

ii)Market data/USA

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

This is interesting: McKinsey is a huge company with a lot of brain power.  They are now under criminal investigation as to how they are advising bankrupt companies

(zerohedge)

McKinsey Under Federal Criminal Investigation Over Its Work Advising Bankrupt Companies

McKinsey & Company is known for advising many of the world’s biggest corporations on a wide range of issues.

But it’s the company’s advisory services to bankrupt companies that has led it to be the target of a federal criminal investigation, according to the New York Times.

Prosecutors in New York are trying to determine whether or not McKinsey used its influence over bankrupt companies to steer assets to itself, or its clients, during Chapter 11 proceedings.

McKinsey’s North American chairman, Gary Pinkus, said: “The firm received an inquiry from the United States Attorney’s Office in Manhattan last year, and addressed it. Since then, we have received no additional requests from the U.S.A.O.”

Over the last 2 weeks, investigators have interviewed people about McKinsey’s actions in the bankruptcies of companies like Alpha Natural Resources and SunEdison. The judges overseeing these cases have already suggested that questions over McKinsey’s conduct would best be resolved by the Justice Department.

In the Alpha Natural Resources bankruptcy, McKinsey did not disclose that it owned some of the company’s debt, an arrangement that ultimately gave McKinsey a stake in the restructured company, called Contura. Bankruptcy advisers are prohibited from holding direct or indirect stakes in the insolvent company.

In the SunEdison bankruptcy, Mr. Alix accused McKinsey of manipulating invoices for prior work to improperly receive payment and avoid disclosing that it was a creditor — a status that could have disqualified McKinsey from working as the energy company’s bankruptcy adviser. After Mr. Alix raised those issues, McKinsey called the allegations reckless and defamatory.

An investigation by the Office of the United States Trustee, a division of the Justice Department that polices the conduct of companies in the bankruptcy system, is also taking place. The office has told judges in other bankruptcy cases that it was examining the conduct of McKinsey and McKinsey admits it has answered questions from the regulator.

Neither investigation may lead to legal action – but a criminal case could be damaging to McKinsey’s reputation. 

Bruce A. Markell, a professor of bankruptcy law at the Pritzker School of Law at Northwestern University said: “Would it kill McKinsey? No, because McKinsey has far more lines of business than bankruptcy.” Instead, Markell says that an investigation could hinder the firm’s bankruptcy division, one that is currently working with clients like PG&E.

“I think McKinsey’s still standing at the end of this. It may not be as tall. It may be a bit bowed, but I think they’re still on the playing field,” he assessed.

The criminal investigation adds to the mounting criticism that McKinsey has prioritized its own profits over clients, ethics and the law, the article notes:

McKinsey refunded millions of dollars in fees after South African authorities accused it of helping associates of the country’s former president, Jacob Zuma, loot public coffers. The firm’s name surfaced in a case federal prosecutors brought against a Ukrainian oligarch because it gave a presentation that cited the need to bribe officials in India. And court records recently revealed its role in helping opioid makers sell more drugs, although the firm was not a defendant in that case.

But it has been the company’s bankruptcy division that has arguably invited the most criticism. These types of advisers have significant influence over the handling of bankrupt companies’ assets and help determine which creditors get priority on defaulted debt.

Jay Alix, the founder of a competing firm, has been the most vocal with his criticism. Alix has said that McKinsey does not properly disclose its connections to other parties involved in bankruptcy cases, which breaks rules about fair dealing. Judges have voiced concerns about the issues he has raises, but some have also dismissed his complaints for lacking standing.

McKinsey – obviously – denies wrongdoing. Pinkus said: “Over the past few years, Jay Alix has waged a relentless campaign based on false allegations to drive McKinsey out of the bankruptcy advisory space in order to advantage his firm AlixPartners. Courts have dismissed Mr. Alix’s claims in four separate bankruptcy cases, including those of Alpha Natural Resources and SunEdison, as well as a complaint Mr. Alix brought last year under the Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act.”

Pinkus says the inquiry that McKinsey received from federal prosecutors in 2018 came shortly after Alix’s complaint was filed. The complaint was later dismissed in August 2018 when Alix failed to show that he had been directly harmed.

“We continue to respond, as we always have, to questions from the U.S. Trustee, which indicated in court this week that it ‘has been engaged in discussions with both Mar-Bow and McKinsey RTS,’” a spokesman for McKinsey concluded.

END
Another sign of a deteriorating economy: Manhattan’s retail sector is imploding just before the holiday season
(zerohedge)

Manhattan’s Retail Industry Is Imploding Before The Holiday Season

Retail rents in Manhattan have fallen again, this time before the holiday season, an ominous sign that consumer health is deterioratingMaybe retail spending this holiday season will be somewhat disappointing; after all, President Trump was seen on Twitter on Monday asking his 66.5 million followers to spend more of their money as the stock market rose to new highs. Any time the government asks its citizens to spend money, it usually means trouble ahead.

Average asking rents across Upper Fifth Avenue, especially between 42nd and 49th streets, saw one of the steepest drops in retail rents in Q3, falling 25% YoY, reported Bloomberg, citing a new report from Jones Lang LaSalle Inc.

As shown below, Lower Fifth, Broadway, Madison Avenue, SoHo, and Herald Square retail rents over the same period were in free fall. This is a reflection of the weakening consumer base ahead of the holiday season. There were several outliers, Upper Fifth and Times Square retail rents over the same period marginally declined. Meanwhile, the Meatpacking district saw rents jump 7.3% in Q3 YoY.

Across Manhattan’s retail industry, average rents plunged, on average, 8% in Q3 YoY.

Patrick Smith, vice chairman at JLL’s retail brokerage, said declining rents in some of NYC’s most popular shopping districts indicate declining consumer traffic.

A random walk down Manhattan and you’ll find, nowadays, streets overwhelmed with vacant retail shops, as landlords begging for tenants slam rents lower.

Bleecker Street in Greenwich Village, once filled with a lively shopping district, is now littered with vacant stores.

The Real Deal has said Manhattan’s Upper East Side is “facing a retail vacancy epidemic.”

Manhattan Borough President Gale Brewer has said more than 188 vacant shops can be found along Broadway.

Douglas Elliman, a real estate brokerage, has said 20% of Manhattan retail is likely vacant, up 7% since 2016.

Manhattan’s retail rents and retail vacancy problems could be a sign that the broader economy is faltering. If so, this would be terrible news for the consumer, which powers 70% of GDP. This could all mean a recession is ahead.

END

iv) Swamp commentaries)

Nunes wants Schiff to testify .  Also the whistleblower, Ciaramella and Hunter Biden..

fat chance that this will occur.

(zerohedge)

Nunes Demands Schiff Testify After Lying; Also Wants Whistleblower And Hunter Biden To Appear

 

Rep. Devin Nunes (R-CA) made a formal request that House Intelligence Committee Chairman Adam Schiff (D-CA) testify in a closed-door session as part of the impeachment inquiry against President Trump.

“Prior to the start of your public show trial next week, at least one additional closed-door deposition must take place,” reads a Friday letter from Nunes to Schiff.

“As the American public is now aware, in August 2019 you and/or your staff met with or talked to the whistleblower who raised an issue with President Trump’s phone call with Ukrainian President Zelensky. Although you publicly claim nothing inappropriate was discussed, the three committees deserve to hear directly from you the substance and circumstances surrounding any discussions conducted with the whistleblower, and any instructions you issued regarding those discussions.

 

Given that you have reneged on your public commitment to let the committees interview the whistleblower directly, you are the only individual who can provide clarity as to these conversations,” the letter reads.

Schiff lied about his office’s contacts with the whistleblower – initially claiming “We have not spoken directly with the whistleblower,” when in fact the whistleblower, now known as CIA officer Eric Ciaramella, reached out to a committee aide who directed him to Democratic attorney Mark Zaid (who proudly obtained government security clearances for pedophiles and enjoys walking around children’s theme parks alone).

That said, Schiff maintains he hasn’t personally spoken with Ciaramella, and that his committee was only given vague information as to the nature of the complaint.

Republicans, meanwhile, are gearing up for the public hearings by assembling a list of proposed witnesses – although Democrats have the final say over who can appear.

Nunes’ and Republicans’ effort to devise a strategy going forward comes after the House approved rules for the impeachment inquiry process last week. While Republicans opposed the resolution and complained the rules were unfair, Democrats still gave GOP lawmakers the ability to subpoena witnesses with the concurrence of Democratic committee chairs. If the chair does not consent, the minority can appeal to the full committee.

This process still gives Democrats final say over witnesses. A GOP source told Fox News this week that it’s unlikely Democrats would go along with the efforts to call Schiff — who is essentially leading the impeachment probe. –Fox News

On Saturday, Nunes wrote another letter to Schiffwith a list of witnesses the GOP would like to call, including Joe Biden’s son Hunter and Ciaramella.

“Americans see through this sham impeachment process, despite the Democrats’ efforts to retroactively legitimize it last week,” wrote Nunes. “To provide transparency to your otherwise opaque and unfair process, and after consultation with [House Oversight Committee] Ranking Member Jim Jordan and [House Foreign Affairs Committee] Ranking Member Michael McCaul, the American people deserve to hear from the following witnesses in an open setting.”

While requesting testimony from the whistleblower, Nunes wrote that “Trump should be afforded an opportunity to confront his accusers,” particularly over what he claims are “discrepancies” between the whistleblower’s complaint and witnesses’ closed-door testimony.

It is imperative that the American people hear definitively how the whistleblower developed his or her information, and who else the whistleblower may have fed the information he or she gathered and how that treatment of classified information may have led to the false narrative being perpetrated by the Democrats during this process,” Nunes wrote.

In addition to the anonymous whistleblower, whose complaint about Trump’s July 25 call with Ukraine is at the center of the impeachment inquiry, Republicans also plan to call Hunter Biden’s former business partner, Devon Archer.

Hunter Biden worked on the board of a natural gas company owned by a Ukrainian oligarch while his father served as vice president. Joe Biden pushed in 2016 for the dismissal of a Ukrainian prosecutor who had been accused of overlooking corruption in his own office, threatening to withhold money if the prosecutor was not fired. –The Hill

Last Sunday on CBS‘ “Face the Nation,” House GOP leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) said that Schiff is the “fist person” who should be brought in, along with his staff.

“Come to the Judiciary Committee” said Collins, following the passage of Democrats’ impeachment guidelines. “Be the first witness and take every question asked of you. Starting with your own involvement [with] the whistleblower.”

end
My goodness: the visitor logs reveal that our famous whistleblower Eric Ciaramella visited Obama’s white House multiple times.
(zerohedge/Sara Carter)

Visitor Logs Reveal ‘Whistleblower’ And DNC Contractor Visited Obama White House Multiple Times

Authored by Sara Carter via SaraACarter.com,

A controversial whistleblower who allegedly reported second-hand on President Donald Trump’s private conversation with the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky visited the Obama White House on numerous occasions, according to Obama era visitor logs obtained by Judicial Watch.

Last week Real Clear Investigation’s first reported the whistleblower’s name. It is allegedly CIA officer Eric Ciaramella. His name, however, has been floating around Washington D.C. since the leak of Trump’s phone call. It was considered an ‘open secret’ until reporter Paul Sperry published his article. Ciaramella has never openly stated that he is the whistleblower and most news outlets are not reporting his name publicly.

He was detailed to the National Security Counsel during the Obama Administration in 2015 and was allegedly sent back to the CIA in 2017, after a number of people within the Trump White House suspected him of leaking information to the press, according to several sources that spoke with SaraACarter.com.

Further, the detailed visitor logs reveal that a Ukrainian expert Alexandra Chalupa, a contractor that was hired by the Democratic National Committee during the 2016 election, visited the White House 27 times.

Chalupa allegedly coordinated with the Ukrainians to investigate then candidate Trump and his former campaign manager Paul Manafort. Manafort was forced out of his short tenure as campaign manager for Trump when stories circulated regarding business dealings with Ukrainian officials. Manafort was later investigated and convicted by a jury on much lesser charges then originally set forth by Robert Mueller’s Special Counsel investigation. He was given 47 months in prison for basically failing to pay appropriate taxes and committing bank fraud.

Both Ciaramella and Chalupa are of interest to Republican’s investigating the what some conservatives have described as the second Trump ‘witch-hunt.’ And many have called for the whistleblower to testify to Congress.

They are absolutely correct and within the law. There is so much information and evidence that reveals that this was no ordinary whistleblower complaint but one that may have been based on highly partisan actions targeting Trump.

Here’s just one example: Ranking member of the House Intelligence Committee Devin Nunes said its impossible to have a fair impeachment inquiry without the testimony of the alleged whistleblower because he is a ‘fact foundational witness’ who had met with Intelligence Committee Chairman Adam Schiff, D-CA, previously. Schiff had originally denied that he had any contact with his committee and then had to walk back his statements when it was revealed that the whistleblower had met with the Democrats prior to filing his complaint to the Intelligence Inspector General about the President.

Judicial Watch President Tom Fitton, said the visitor logs reveal that there is much lawmakers or the American public don’t know about what happened during the 2016 presidential elections and moreover it raises very significant questions about the apparent partisan nature of the whistleblower.

“Judicial Watch’s analysis of Obama White House visitor logs raises additional questions about the Obama administration, Ukraine and the related impeachment scheme targeting President Trump,” said Fitton, in a press release Friday.

“Both Mr. Ciaramella and Ms. Chalupa should be questioned about the meetings documented in these visitor logs.”

Read Below From Judicial Watch

The White House visitor logs revealed the following individuals met with Eric Ciaramella while he was detailed to the Obama White House:

  • Daria Kaleniuk: Co-founder and executive director of the Soros-funded Anticorruption Action Center (AntAC) in Ukraine. She visited on December 9, 2015

The Hill reported that in April 2016, during the U.S. presidential race, the U.S. Embassy under Obama in Kiev, “took the rare step of trying to press the Ukrainian government to back off its investigation of both the U.S. aid and (AntAC).”

  • Gina Lentine: Now a senior program officer at Freedom House, she was formerly the Eurasia program coordinator at Soros funded Open Society Foundations. She visited on March 16, 2016.
  • Rachel Goldbrenner: Now an NYU law professor, she was at that time an advisor to then-Ambassador to the United Nations Samantha Power. She visited on both January 15, 2016 and August 8, 2016.
  • Orly Keiner: A foreign affairs officer at the State Department who is a Russia specialist. She is also the wife of State Department Legal Advisor James P. Bair. She visited on both March 4, 2016 and June 20, 2015.
  • Nazar Kholodnitzky: The lead anti-corruption prosecutor in Ukraine. He visited on January 19, 2016.

On March 7, 2019, The Associated Pressreported that the then-U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, Marie Yovanovitch called for him to be fired.

  • Michael Kimmage: Professor of History at Catholic University of America, at the time was with the State Department’s policy planning staff where specialized in Russia and Ukraine issues. He is a fellow at the German Marshall Fund. He was also one of the signatories to the Transatlantic Democracy Working Group Statement of Principles. He visited on October 26, 2015.
  • James Melville: Then-recently confirmed as Obama’s Ambassador to Estonia, visited on September 9, 2015.

On June 29, 2018, Foreign Policy reported that Melville resigned in protest of Trump.

  • Victoria Nuland: who at the time was assistant secretary of state for European and Eurasian Affairs met with Ciaramella on June 17, 2016.

(Judicial Watch has previously uncovered documents revealing Nuland had an extensive involvement with Clinton-funded dossier. Judicial Watch also released documents revealing that Nuland was involved in the Obama State Department’s “urgent” gathering of classified Russia investigation information and disseminating it to members of Congress within hours of Trump taking office.)

  • Artem Sytnyk: the Ukrainian Anti-Corruption Bureau director visited on January 19, 2016.

On October 7, 2019, the Daily Wire reported leaked tapes show Sytnyk confirming that the Ukrainians helped the Clinton campaign.

The White House visitor logs revealed the following individuals met with Alexandra Chalupa, then a DNC contractor:

  • Charles Kupchan: From 2014 to 2017, Kupchan served as special assistant to the president and senior director for European affairs on the staff of the National Security Council (NSC) in the Barack Obama administration. That meeting was on November 9, 2015.
  • Alexandra Sopko: who at the time was a special assistant and policy advisor to the director of the Office of Intergovernmental Affairs, which was run by Valerie Jarrett. Also listed for that meeting is Alexa Kissinger, a special assistant to Jarrett. That meeting was on June 2, 2015.
  • Asher Mayerson: who at the time was a policy advisor to the Office of Public Engagement under Jarrett had five visits with Chalupa including December 18, 2015, January 11, 2016, February 22, 2016, May 13, 2016, and June 14, 2016.

Mayerson was previously an intern at the Center for American Progress. After leaving the Obama administration, he went to work for the City of Chicago Treasurer’s office.

Mayerson met with Chalupa and Amanda Stone, who was the White House deputy director of technology, on January 11, 2016.

On May 4, 2016, Chalupa emailed DNC official Luis Miranda to inform him that she had spoken to investigative journalists about Paul Manafort in Ukraine.

end

A good one..Jeff Charles believes that the Durham investigation will sink the impeachment efforts

\(Jeff Charles)

 

Will Durham Investigation Tank Impeachment Efforts?

Authored by Jeff Charles via LibertyNation.com,

If the recent moves by prosecutor John Durham are any indication, some important people have cause to be worried. After the investigation into the origin of the Russia probe became a criminal matter, many have speculated as to who might be in Durham’s crosshairs.

Sources familiar with Durham’s investigation recently told Fox News the prosecutor likely has evidence that crimes were committed. So who is guilty of wrongdoing, and how will the progressive left, who championed the failed Russia collusion narrative, react?

Indictments On The Horizon?

John Durham

Durham recently elevated his investigation to criminal status, which broadens the powers of the authorities looking into the matter. It means he can subpoena witnesses, call a grand jury, and take other actions. Fox News’ source indicated that the prosecutor might know already who engaged in illegal activities.

“You do not impanel a grand jury at this point unless you are going to indict,” the source said. “Durham is at a point where he knows he has crimes and now the question is how many people were involved and they have a pretty good idea of that group of people and what the charges can be and whether or not they can get some cooperators.”

If the source is correct, it means Durham possesses much of the information he needs to issue indictments. Perhaps elevating the investigation gets him closer to uncovering the rest of the crimes. If this is true, Durham’s probe is likely to send the progressive left into a tizzy; they did not expect to be on the receiving end of this strategy. So how will the Democrats and their close allies in the corporate press react if the prosecutor files indictments and makes arrests? It seems they have already given us a clue.

How Will The Left React?

The Democrats have already placed Durham in their sights, and the leaders are rushing to condemn Attorney General William Barr for daring to investigate government officials for potential wrongdoing. With no sense of irony, they accuse the Justice Department of conducting a politically motivated investigation to harm Trump’s political opponents. This is what a lack of self-awareness looks like, folks.

William Barr

House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jerrold Nadler (D-NY) and House Intelligence Committee Chairman Adam Schiff (D-CA) issued a joint statement, lashing out at the attorney general. “The Department of Justice under AG Barr has lost its independence and become a vehicle for President Trump’s political revenge,” they whined. “If the Department of Justice may be used as a tool of political retribution or to help the President with a political narrative for the next election, the rule of law will suffer new and irreparable damage.”

Sen. Mark Warner (D-VA) claimed that Durham’s investigation is not warranted. He stated that the Senate Intelligence Committee “is wrapping up a three-year bipartisan investigation, and we’ve found nothing remotely justifying this.”

Apparently, the Democrats have embraced the “good for me but not for thee” policy over the past three years when it comes to investigations.

What About Impeachment?

In the midst of an attempt to impeach President Donald Trump, the arrests of government officials who began an obvious politically motivated investigation is the last thing the Democrats want. While they use the president’s phone call with Ukraine as a pretext to conduct yet another probe, it might not be a good look if Durham indicts other officials for doing the same.

Fox News also reported that the prosecutor is “very interested” in questioning former CIA Director John Brennan and former National Intelligence Director James Clapper. In fact, another source told Fox that Brennan was informed by his attorney that Durham might reach out to him. FBI agent Peter Strzok – a key member of the team investigating the Trump campaign – also might be a focus of the continuing investigation. He has been the subject of scrutiny since messages between himself and former FBI attorney Lisa Page revealed a distinct anti-Trump bias.

It is no secret that the Democrats have been planning to impeach Trump since five minutes after he won the election in 2016. The false Russia collusion narrative was supposed to be the kill shot to the president’s time in office. But special counsel Robert Mueller’s report revealed that their efforts were based on utter falsehoods. Now, the left has replaced Russia with Ukraine, hoping to pound a final nail in the coffin. It is clear to anyone following politics that it is out to get Trump by any means necessary.

However, if Durham’s investigation results in indictments of prominent individuals who targeted the president during the 2016 campaign season, it might be yet another demonstration that Democrats are motivated by politics when it comes to removing Trump, not a sense of duty or altruism. It is one thing to lead an impeachment effort based on “Orange Man Bad;” it is quite another if the DOJ exposes left-leaning government officials who used illegal means to damage the president.

Support for impeachment is still high, but it is sinking. As time goes on, with no new compelling evidence against Trump, it will continue to decline. If Durham arrests political actors who worked against the Trump administration, the American public will see through the effort to unseat the president through the impeachment process. Then the Democrats will not have the support they need to push it through. Either way, it looks like the Democrats’ only hope for victory lies with the 2020 election, not the impeachment process.

end

 

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

Trump lectured reporters on Friday: “You really shaped my behavior because from the day I came in here I’ve had problems with phony stuff, like a phony dossier and false investigations…A lot of my behavior was shaped by the fake news and the other side… I did a big favor.  I caught the swamp.  I caught them all.  Let’s see what happens… I caught all this corruption that was going on.”

https://twitter.com/michaelbeatty3/status/1192834215718477825

The Shirt-talker in Chief disparaged ‘Little Michael’ Bloomberg. “I’ve known Michael Bloomberg for a long time… I think he’s going to hurt Biden…. Little Michael will fail… He’s got some really big issues, got some personal problems and he’s got a lot of other problems.  I know ‘Little Michael’ fairly well…”

https://twitter.com/realDerekUtley/status/1192841261398548481

Michael Bloomberg more disliked than any Democratic candidate: poll https://t.co/ejdGORoNTJ

Though the above poll shows 25% of Dem voters dislike Mike and he is polling nationally at 4%, one poll had him beating Trump by 6%.  This, of course, is bogus.  If Dems were beating Trump as handily as numerous [bogus] polls attest, why are so many Dems trying to jump in the race this late?

@60Minutes: “Last year, you were paid $31 million. Too high?”  JPMorgan Chase Chairman and CEO Jamie Dimon says he thinks the wealth gap in America is a “huge problem,” but he passed the buck when asked about his salary.  [Why would Dimon do “60 Minutes”?  There is no upside.] https://cbsn.ws/32uoTYU

On Saturday, Trump announced that he would probably release on Tuesday a transcript of an earlier (than July 25 call) phone call with Ukraine president Zelensky.  Schiff’s public hearings begin on Wednesday.  Obviously, there has to be something advantageous to Trump in the transcript.

Yovanovitch communicated with Dem staffer on ‘delicate’ issue after complaint, emails show, despite testimony – Former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Marie Yovanovitch, a key witness in House Democrats’ impeachment inquiry, communicated via her personal email account with a Democratic congressional staffer concerning a “quite delicate” and “time-sensitive” matter… emails obtained Thursday by Fox News’ “Tucker Carlson Tonight” show.

    The emails appear to contradict Yovanovitch’s deposition on Capitol Hill last month, in which she told U.S. Rep. Lee Zeldin, R-N.Y., about an email she received Aug. 14 from the staffer, Laura Carey — but indicated under oath that she never responded to it… [Several Team DJT have been prosecuted for lying.]

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/marie-yovanovitch-ukraine-emails-house-democrat-staffer-delicate-issue

GOP @RepLeeZeldin: It appears Ambassador Yovanovitch did not accurately answer this question I asked her during her “impeachment inquiry” deposition under oath. [Euphemism for ‘perjury’]

https://twitter.com/RepLeeZeldin/status/1192635800300740609

@JackPosobiec: Emails show fmr Ambassador Yovanovitch lied to Congress about what she knew about the whistleblower.  Perjury to Congress is the same crime Roger Stone is on trial for right now in DC

Kevin McCarthy [House Minority Leader] @GOPLeader: House Democrats just got caught coordinating with one of Chairman Schiff’s star witnesses—two days after the so-called whistleblower filed a complaint and six weeks before it was even public.  Another step in their premeditated coup.

Trump’s firing of Yovanovitch is a cause célèbre for Schiffsters and the MSM.  They claim DJT acolytes smeared her, which makes this an abuse of power and an impeachable offense.

@JimHansonDC: Transcripts released of the two main sources for the “whistleblower” FionaHill & AlexanderVindman.[Both Russian] Let’s dig in & see how this little game of smear @realDonaldTrump

Unfolded.  Not sure the Left thought this impeachment thing through.  They’re so blinded by TDS they can’t see that their side is much more in jeopardy for the conspiracy to generate #TrumpRussia

https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2019-11-08/alexander-vindman-fiona-hill-impeachment-transcripts

Schiff Witness Vindham Testified that He “Thought” President’s “Policy” Was Wrong So He Advised Ukrainians to Ignore the President [How many crimes can you spot?]

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2019/11/huge-schiff-witness-vindham-testified-that-he-thought-presidents-policy-was-wrong-so-he-advised-ukrainians-to-ignore-the-president/

@paulsperry_: Newly released transcripts show ex-Trump NSC official and Democrat Fiona Hill acknowledged in impeachment testimony she not only had a prior close working relationship with dossier author Christopher Steele, but had contacts with Steele during the 2016 campaign

    Just-released transcript of impeachment witness Vindman reveals that Rep. Schiff repeatedly instructed the ex-NSC official to “refrain” from naming any intelligence co-workers or contacts he spoke with out of concern naming one of them could identify “the whistleblower”

   PERJURY? Vindman flatly denied, under oath, knowing who the whistleblower is

       On pp 176-177 of just-released transcript, Fiona Hill asked to name NSC analysts who worked under her heading Ukraine desk & she names Vindman, then Catherine Croft before suddenly forgetting “who was before her.” The person she conveniently “can’t remember” is Ciaramella.

    Rep. Schiff & his Democrat counsel on impeachment panel censored from just-released Vindman transcripts the name of Ali Chalupa, the DNC operative who worked w Ukrainian officials, Obama officials and Clinton campaign to dig up and spread dirt on Trump campaign in 2016

     There are now several documents, as well as new testimony, revealing multiple attempts by Hunter Biden’s Burisma reps or his fellow Burisma board member/business partner to lobby or meet with officials in the Obama State Department or then-Vice President Biden’s office

House Democrats release testimony of White House officials who raised Ukraine alarms

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/house-democrats-release-testimony-white-house-official-raised/story

@seanmdav: In reading through the testimony of Alexander Vindman, I’m struck by how evasive and argumentative Vindman and his criminal defense attorney are during questioning. And how desperate Schiff and his staff are to prevent witnesses from answering certain questions.

https://twitter.com/seanmdav/status/1192871908200665088

      Vindman’s criminal defense attorney was at his most obstructive regarding two key questions: did Vindman deliberately work to undermine the policy of the Commander-in-Chief, and did he have any conversations about Trump’s classified phone call outside the chain of command?

    JORDAN: “Who else did you talk to following the July 25th call?”  And then Swalwell, Schiff, and Vindman’s criminal defense attorney immediately jump in to make sure he never answers the question.

What are they afraid of?  https://twitter.com/seanmdav/status/1192882451523211265

    Yet another example here of Vindman’s criminal defense attorney and Schiff working together to make sure Vindman doesn’t disclose who he spoke with about the July 25 call between Trump and Zelensky. What are Vindman and Schiff hiding?    https://twitter.com/seanmdav/status/1192881269564198916

The whistleblower lawyer is taking heat for this tweet from Feb 10, 2018: @MarkSZaidEsq: I’ve gotten clearances for guys who had child porn issues 10:02 PM · Feb 10, 2018

Team Schiff incompetence is so egregious, it makes you wonder if the Schiffster is a DJT secret agent.

White House Visitor Logs Detail Meetings of Eric Ciaramella – Logs Also Show DNC Contractor Who Allegedly Worked with Ukraine to Investigate Trump/Manafort Visited Obama White House 27 times The logs also reveal Alexandra Chalupa, a contractor hired by the DNC during the 2016 election who coordinated with Ukrainians to investigate PresidentTrump and his former campaign manager Paul Manafort, visited the White House 27 times…

https://www.judicialwatch.org/press-releases/judicial-watch-white-house-visitor-logs-detail-meetings-of-eric-ciaramella/

The submitted GOP witness list: Devon Archer, Hunter Biden, Alexandra Chalupa, David Hale, Tim Morrison, Nellie Ohr, Kurt Volker, Whistle Blower and all that helped him/her compile his complaint

https://twitter.com/julie_kelly2/status/1193176273343963137

Nunes demands Schiff testify in private as part of House impeachment inquiry

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/nunes-demands-schiff-testify-in-private-as-fact-witness-in-impeachment-inquiry

Schiff rejected the GOP’s request for Hunter Biden and the whistleblower to testify.  Ergo, the person responsible for the hearings, the whistleblower, will not be cross examined.  This is unconstitutional (right to confront accusers, due process, etc.) and grounds for the Senate to reject an impeachment vote.

Senate Judiciary Chair Lindsey Graham on Sunday said if Schiff does not allow the whistleblower to testify in the House, impeachment will be “dead on arrival” in Senate.

The 6th Amendment to the US Constitution: In all criminal prosecutions, the accused shall enjoy the right to a speedy and public trial, by an impartial jury of the State and district wherein the crime shall have been committed, which district shall have been previously ascertained by law, and to be informed of the nature and cause of the accusation; to be confronted with the witnesses against him; to have compulsory process for obtaining witnesses in his favor, and to have the Assistance of Counsel for his defense.

Whistleblower not entitled to anonymity – He’s an informant acting as a Democratic operative

To put it plainly, there is no whistleblower statute that permits an unelected and inferior federal employee to blow the whistle on the president, the most superior officer in the U.S. government… https://thegreggjarrett.com/whistleblower-not-entitled-to-anonymity-hes-an-informant-acting-as-a-democratic-operative/

@marklevinshow: Focus is on Schiff. Will Schiff defy GOP request to testify? Will he continue to coverup his collusion with the rogue CIA operative & the coup-promoting lawyers? Will he continue to lie to the public about his role in the coup? Time for Schiff to testify under penalty of perjury.

CBS News sparks outrage for reportedly firing ex-ABC News staffer who leaked Epstein bombshell

According to Ali, the executives at both networks were in communication with each other throughout the process and the CBS staffer has since been fired… 

   “CBS fired a staffer for… a story that was embarrassing to ABC?” Republican pollster Logan Dobson asked.  “Thank god the monster who leaked video about ABC spiking new on a politically connected billionaire pedophile will no longer be disgracing the journalism profession again,” another Twitter user reacted…  https://fxn.ws/2Cqp4K5

@yashar: It’s really important to remind folks that Ashley Bianco was not fired by CBS News for leaking the footage of Amy Robach to Project Veritas. No one at either network knows who did that.  Bianco was fired because ABC News determined that she accessed the footage of Robach

Veritas’s James O’ Keefe says Ashley Bianco isn’t their source.  Their source is still at ABC.

@ABC: Pres. Trump said that he would “love to go” to Russian military parade that Western officials have avoided in recent years over Russia’s annexation of Crimea, after Russian Pres. Putin invited him earlier this year.  Trump confirmed Putin had invited him to Russia’s annual Victory Day parade, which commemorates the end of World War II and is Russia’s biggest national holiday…

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/president-trump-love-russian-military-parade-avoided-west/story

Trump’s Russia gambit reminds us of Tom Clancy’s novel, The Bear and the Dragon.  After China attacks Russia for its oil and commodities, the USA comes to Russia’s aid.  DJT is doing a reverse Nixon, who used China to stymie the USSR.  China is the biggest and most menacing strategic threat to the USA.

WaPo: Nikki Haley claims Tillerson and Kelly tried to recruit her to ‘save the country’ by undermining Trump [Further evidence of Trump’s abysmal hiring practices]

  In a new book, the former U.S. ambassador to the U.N. and potential White House aspirant wrote that former secretary of state Rex Tillerson and former White House chief of staff John F. Kelly sought to recruit her to work around and subvert President Trump, but she refused. She described Tillerson as “exhausting” and imperious, and Kelly as suspicious of her access to Trump…

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/nikki-haley-claims-top-aides-tried-to-recruit-her-to-save-the-country-by-undermining-trump/2019/11/10/f92bac88-0267-11ea-9518-1e76abc088b6_story.html

Virginia lawmaker jailed for teen sex scandal wins state Senate seat

https://wset.com/news/at-the-capitol/virginia-lawmaker-jailed-for-teen-sex-scandal-wins-senate-seat

Deadly Message: Drug Cartels Execute Officer Who Arrested Kingpin’s Son, Shot 155 Times

https://hannity.com/media-room/deadly-message-drug-cartels-execute-officer-who-arrested-kingpins-son-shot-155-times/

Well that is all for today

I will see you Tuesday night.

 

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