NOV 14 GOLD UP $10.00 to $1472.70//SILVER UP 12 CENTS TO $17. 06//ANOTHER RECORD COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST, NORTH OF 716,000 CONTRACTS/QUEUE JUMPING AGAIN FOR BOTH COMEX GOLD AND SILVER///NEW INVENTORY LEVELS INTRODUCED INTO THE GOLD COMEX AND THIS IS EXPLAINED TO US//MORE TURMOIL IN HONG KONG AS THE PEOPLE’S LIBERATION ARMY POISED TO ENTER//A NEW 42 DAY REPO TERM LOAN HAS BEEN INITIATED BY THE FED AS THEY WORRY ABOUT LIQUIDITY AT YEAR END//

GOLD:$1472.70 UP $10.00    (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Silver:$17.06 UP 12 CENTS  (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Closing access prices:

 

 

 

 

Gold :  $1471.25

 

silver:  $17.02

 

COMEX DATA

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING:  141/207

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: NOVEMBER 2019 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,461.700000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 11/13/2019 DELIVERY DATE: 11/15/2019
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
323 H HSBC 200
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 12
661 C JP MORGAN 141
737 C ADVANTAGE 37
905 C ADM 7 17
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 207 207
MONTH TO DATE: 1,505

we are coming very close to a commercial failure!!

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  NOV CONTRACT: 207 NOTICE(S) FOR 20700 OZ (0.6438 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  1505 NOTICES FOR 150500 OZ  (4.6812 TONNES)

 

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR NOV

 

 

7 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 35,000  OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month: 515 for 2,585,000 oz

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Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE :  $ 8625 DOWN 149 

 

 

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $ 8663 down 111

 

 

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

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IN SILVER THE COMEX OI FELL BY A SMALL  SIZED 436 CONTRACTS FROM 222,122 DOWN TO 221,685 WITH THE 20 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX.

TODAY WE ARRIVED CLOSER TO  AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:,

FOR NOV 0,; DEC  2039; MARCH: 8  AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  2047 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 3342 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 3342 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 16.71 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 20 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

7.665     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

YESTERDAY WAS THE 11TH DAY IN A ROW THAT THE BANKERS TRIED TO CONTAIN THE PRICE OF SILVER.  THEY TRIED TO COVER THEIR MASSIVE SHORTFALL WITH ANOTHER  RAID  AS THEY AGAIN USED HUGE COPIOUS NON BACKED PAPER IN THEIR  UNSUCCESSFUL ENDEAVOUR TO WHACK SILVER’S PRICE ( IT ROSE 20 CENTS ). OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS HOWEVER WERE AGAIN UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE  SILVER LONGS AS THE TOTAL GAIN IN OI ON BOTH EXCHANGES TOTALED A STRONG 1611 CONTRACTS. OR 8.055 MILLION OZ..THE RAID BY OUR BANKERS FAILED AS THEY COULD JUST NOT COVER ANY OF THEIR HUGE SHORTFALL.

 

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF OCT:

24,269 CONTRACTS (FOR 10 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 24,269 CONTRACTS) OR 121.35 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 2426 CONTRACTS OR 12.13 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF AUGUST:  121.35 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 17.30% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          1876.14   MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2019 EFP TOTALS:                                                      217.455. MILLION OZ

FEB 2019 TOTALS:                                                                       147.4     MILLION OZ/

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                          207.835 MILLION OZ

APRIL 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                              182.87  MILLION OZ.

MAY 2019: TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                136.55 MILLION OZ

JUNE 2019 , TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                               265.38 MILLION OZ

JULY 2019   TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                175.74 MILLION OZ

AUG. 2019  TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;                                                 216.47 MILLION OZ

SEPT 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE                                                  174.900 MILLION OZ

OCTOBER 2019 ISSUANCE:                                                           146.14 MILLION OZ

 

RESULT: WE HAD A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 436, DESPITE THE 20 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /YESTERDAY... THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A  HUGE SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 2047 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

 

TODAY WE GAINED A STRONG SIZED: 1611 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 

i.e 2047 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH DECREASE OF 436  OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 20 CENT GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $16.94 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY!! 

 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.108 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 158% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT MARCH MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 7 NOTICE(S) FOR 35,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.78.  

 

.

 

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 10.025 MILLION OZ/ SEPT 43.030 MILLION OZ//OCT: 7.665 MILLION OZ//   
  2.  THE  RECORD WAS SET IN AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78//.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 8130 CONTRACTS, SURPASSING   THAT PREVIOUS TIME RECORD  OF 708,244 SET FRIDAY NOV 8/2019. THE GAIN IN OI SURPRISINGLY OCCURRED WITH A  $9.50 PRICING GAIN WITH RESPECT TO COMEX GOLD PRICING RAID// TODAY// / THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE GOLD COMEX RESTS TONIGHT  AT 716,593..A NEW RECORD DULY RECORDED

 

 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 7209 CONTRACTS:

NOV 2019: 0 CONTRACTS, DEC>  7209 CONTRACTS AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 716,593,,.  ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE AN ATMOSPHERIC AND CRIMINALLY SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 15,339 CONTRACTS: 8130 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX  AND 7209 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 15,339 CONTRACTS OR 1,533,900 OZ OR 47.71 TONNES.  YESTERDAY WE HAD A GAIN OF $9.50 IN GOLD TRADING….

AND WITH THAT GAIN IN  PRICE, WE  HAD A HUGE GAIN IN GOLD TONNAGE OF 47.71  TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS/OFFICIAL SECTOR WERE SUPPLYING INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER WITH RECKLESS ABANDON AS ANOTHER RAID WAS INITIATED. THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE (UP $9.50). THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING  GOLD LONGS FROM THE GOLD ARENA. 

 

 

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR SILVER..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR GOLD.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEWCOMERS HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO GOLD AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCTOBER FOR GOLD.

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF NOV BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN GOLD WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (DEC), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.” 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF NOV : 106,173 CONTRACTS OR 10,617,300 oz OR 330.24 TONNES (10 TRADING DAY AND THUS AVERAGING: 10,617 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 10 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 330.24 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 330.24/3550 x 100% TONNES =9.30% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     5421.78  TONNES

JANUARY 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;   531.20 TONNES

FEB 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:             344.36 TONNES

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:       497.16 TONNES

APRIL 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                 456.10 TONNES

MAY 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    449.10 TONNES

JUNE 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                   642.22 TONNES

JULY 2019: TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    591.56 TONNES

AUG. 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    639.62 TONNES

SEPT 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE              509.57 TONNES

OCT 2019 EFP ISSUANCE                           497.16 TONNES

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

Result: A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 8,130 DESPITE THE  PRICING GAIN THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY($9.50)) //.WE ALSO HAD  A HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 7209 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 7,209 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE  HAD AN ATMOSPHERIC  AND CRIMINALLY SIZED GAIN OF 15,339 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

7,209 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 8,130 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 47.71 TONNES). ..AND THIS HUGE INCREASE OF  DEMAND OCCURRED WITH THE GAIN IN PRICE OF $9.50 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX.

THE COMEX IS NOW UNDER FULL ASSAULT WITH RESPECT TO GOLD AND SILVER.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

we had:  207 notice(s) filed upon for 20,700 oz of gold at the comex.

 

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With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

 

WITH GOLD UP $10.0 TODAY//(COMEX-TO COMEX)

no change in gold inventory today

NOV 14/2019/Inventory rests tonight at 896.77 tonnes

 

 

SLV/

 

WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY: 

 

no change in silver inventory at the slv

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.648 MILLION OZ

 

 

 

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

 

 

 

 

end

 

OUTLINE OF TOPICS TONIGHT

 

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 436 CONTRACTS from 222,122 UP TO 221,685 AND FURTHER FROM A  NEW COMEX RECORD.  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

 

 

 

 

EFP ISSUANCE: 

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 FOR NOV. 0; FOR DEC  2039:  MARCH 8  CONTRACTS AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2047 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE OI LOSS AT THE COMEX OF 436 CONTRACTS TO THE 2047 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN AN ATMOSPHERIC AND CRIMINALLY SIZED GAIN OF 1611 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 8.055 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL  18.765 MILLION OZ FOR MAY  NOW 2.660 MILLION OZ FOR JUNE WITH JULY AT 22.605 MILLION OZ AUGUST AT 10.025 MILLION OZ//  SEPT: 43.030 MILLION OZ///OCT: 7.665 MILLION OZ//

 

 

RESULT: A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE 20 CENT GAIN IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED 2047 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)THURSDAY MORNING/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 4.63 POINTS OR 0.16%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 247.21 POINTS OR 0.93%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 178.43  POINTS OR 0.76%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .52%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 7.0210 /Oil UP TO 57.59 dollars per barrel for WTI and 62.93 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.0210 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0246 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

 

3b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3C  CHINA

HONG KONG

Xi warns Hong Kong students that he might use the Peoples Liberation Army to storm the campuses.  Students are using the campuses as fortresses against the Hong Kong police

(zerohedge)

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

Russia

Russia is now reducing dollar denominated funds in its national wealth fund

(zerohedge)

6.Global Issues

Indonesia just got hist with a powerful 7.4 magnitude earthquake and now their are tsunami alerts

(zerohedge)

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

I)China now warns corporate China to diversify away from USA dollar debt

(SCMP/Hong Kong/GATA)

ii)This is a must view..Grant Williams on gold

(Grant Williams)

iii)As dollars disappear many looking for short term money are using foreign exchange swaps. If this market seizes up again, these guys will be in serious trouble

(GATA/Reuters)

iv)The CME introduces a new category in our comex inventory to which i will now report on.  It is pledged gold used to satisfy outside money owed.  This gold will be subtracted from our registered category in my gold inventory report.

(Ronan Manly)

 

10. important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

The Consumer comfort index just crashed the greatest since Lehman. Many are expecting a crash

(zerohedge)

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

a)My goodness, WeWork’s quarterly loss exploded to a monstrous $1.3 billion.

(zerohedge)

b)Chris Powell announces that the Fed will not disclose which banks are receiving repo cash.  After two years, they can release this information

(Chris Powell)

c)

Wolf Richter comments that the subprime auto loan mess is now finally arrived as he notes a serious increase in delinquencies
(Wolf Richter/WolfStreet)

iv) Swamp commentaries)

a)We now have the bank records showing 83 ,000 dollars per month going to the Hunter Biden’s account  A total of 3.1 million dollars eventually went into this account

Here are the details

(zerohedge)

 

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

 

LET US BEGIN:

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 8,130 CONTRACTS TO A NEW RECORD LEVEL OF 716,593 ACCOMPANYING THE GAIN OF $9.50 IN GOLD PRICING WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S // COMEX TRADING)

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED STRONG SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 7209 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

 FOR NOV; 0 CONTRACTS: DEC: 7209   AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  7209 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 15,339TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 7209 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A STRONG SIZED 8130 COMEX CONTRACTS. 

THE BANKERS SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY AND INFINITE AMOUNT OF SHORT PAPER IN GOLD.  THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE WITH THE RAID INITIATED, AS IT ROSE BY $9.50. HOWEVER, JUDGING BY THE STRENGTH IN GAIN OF OUR TOTAL OI CONTRACTS, THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN THE ENDEAVOUR TO FLEECE ANY UNSUSPECTING LONGS. 

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ::  15,339 CONTRACTS OR 1,533,900 OZ OR 47.71 TONNES.

We are now in the active contract month of NOV.  This month is generally the poorest delivery month of the year as must players prefer to go straight to the big active delivery month of December.

Today we have 257 contracts still standing for a GAIN of 24 contracts. Yesterday we had 4 notices served upon so we have another whopper of a gain of 281 contracts or an additional 28,100 oz will stand as these guys refused to morph into London based forwards as well as negating a fiat bonus. We again have queue jumping by the bankers/official sector in their attempt to find physical metal on this side of the pond.

 

The next active delivery month after NOV is the  active contract month of DECEMBER. Here the OI lost a small 7915 contracts down to 369,525.  The next non active month of January saw its OI rise by 23 contracts up to 470.

the big December contract has its OI highly elevated and expect fireworks come first day notice.

 

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NOTICES FILED:

WE HAD 207 NOTICES FILED TODAY AT THE COMEX FOR  20700 OZ. (0..6438 TONNES)

 

 

 

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And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total COMEX silver OI FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 3436 CONTRACTS FROM 222,122 DOWN TO 221,685 (AND FURTHER FROM THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S CONSIDERABLE  OI COMEX LOSS OCCURRED DESPITE A 20 CENT GAIN IN PRICING.//YESTERDAY.

WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV.  HERE WE HAVE 7 OPEN INTEREST STAND FOR DELIVERY WITH A LOSS OF 20 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 27 CONTACTS SERVED UPON YESTERDAY SO WE GAINED 7 CONTRACTS OR 35,000 ADDITIONAL OZ WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH.  THE ALSO REFUSED TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS AS WELL AS NEGATING A FIAT BONUS.

 

AFTER NOV WE HAVE THE  ACTIVE MONTH OF DECEMBER AND HERE WE HAD A DROP OF 9043 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 109,560.   THE NEXT NON ACTIVE MONTH OF JANUARY SAW ITS OI RISE BY 75 CONTRACTS UP TO 509.

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 7 notice(s) filed for 35,000, OZ for the NOV, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 343,270  CONTRACTS 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  418,277  contracts

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  NOV/GOLD

NOV 14/2019

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
321.987 oz
Loomis
Scotia
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil oz

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

nil

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
207 notice(s)
 20700 OZ
(0.6438 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
50 contracts
(5000 oz)
0.1555 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
1505 notices
150,500 OZ
4.6812 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 0 dealer entry:

We had 1 kilobar entries

 

 

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

 

we had 0 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan:  nil oz

 

ii) Into everybody else: 0

 

 

 

total gold deposits: nil  oz

 

very little gold arrives from outside/ Today  zero amount  arrived

 

we had 2 gold withdrawal from the customer account:

i) Out of Loomis: 257.687 oz

ii) Out of Scotia: 63.30 oz (2 kilobars)

 

We had 0 adjustment

 

 

FOR THE NOV 2019 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 207 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 141 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

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xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the NOV /2019. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (1505) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  NOV (257 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (207 x 100 oz per contract) equals 155,500 OZ OR 4.8367 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this  active month of OCT

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the NOV/2019 contract month:

No of notices served (1505 x 100 oz)  + (257)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today 207 x (100 oz )which equals 152,700 oz standing OR 4.7496 TONNES in this  active delivery month of NOV

We GAINED 28 contracts OR 2800 ADDITIONAL OZ WILL  STAND AS THESE GUYS REFUSED TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS AS WELL AS NEGATE A FIAT BONUS

 

 

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES.… WE HAVE ONLY 27.47 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS.

HERE IS WHAT STOOD DURING THESE PAST 4 MONTHS:  AUGUST 27.153 TONNES

SEPT:      5.4525 TONNES

 

OCT…………………………………………………………………………..     OCT…..   37.99 TONNES

AND NOW NOV……                                                                4.8367 tonnes

 

 

ACCORDING TO COMEX RULES:

FOR A SETTLEMENT YOU NEED A TRANSFER FROM THE DEALER (REGISTERED) ACCOUNT OVER TO AN ELIGIBLE ACCOUNT. FOR THE  ENTIRE MONTH OF AUGUST WE HAD O TRANSACTIONS ON THIS FRONT, IN SEPT, 3 TRANSACTIONS FOR 2.60155 TONNES. IF WE INCLUDE THE PAST FEW DAYS OF SETTLEMENTS WE HAVE 4.127 TONNES SETTLED

IF WE ADD THE FOUR DELIVERY MONTHS: 75.4322

TONNES- 4.128 TONNES DEEMED SETTLEMENT = 71.304 TONNES STANDING FOR METAL AGAINST 27.47 TONNES OF REGISTERED OR FOR SALE COMEX GOLD! THIS IS WHY GOLD IS SCARCE AT THE COMEX.

 

total registered or dealer gold:  1,120,771.939 oz or  34.86 tonnes 
which  includes the following:
a) registered gold that can be used to settle upon: 88,328.30 oz (27.47 tonnes)
b) pledged gold held at HSBC which cannot settle upon:  237,553.645 oz  ( 7,3889 tonnes)
total registered pledged  and eligible (customer) gold;   8,329,003.489 oz 259.06 tonnes
WHY ARE THEY NOT SETTLING?
THE COMEX IS AN ABSOLUTE FRAUD..WE HAVE ZERO SETTLEMENTS.

IN THE LAST 36 MONTHS 103 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX 
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.

WHY ARE THEY NOT SETTLING?

 

THE COMEX IS AN ABSOLUTE FRAUD..WE HAVE ZERO SETTLEMENTS.

end

 

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV.

INITIAL  standings/SILVER

IN TOTAL CONTRAST TO GOLD, HUGE ACTIVITY IN SILVER TODAY.
NOV 14 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 96,544.640 oz
BRINKS
Delaware
Loomis

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
603,570.100 oz
CNT
No of oz served today (contracts)
7
CONTRACT(S)
(35,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
0 contracts
 NIL oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  517 contracts

2,,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

**

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

 

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil  oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

i)we had  2 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:   nil

 

ii) Into CNT: 599,951.419 oz

iii) Into Scotia: 168,808.710 oz

 

 

 

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 161.1 million oz of  total silver inventory or 51.10% of all official comex silver. (161.1 million/315.22 million

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  262,760.129  oz

 

we had 1 withdrawals out of the customer account:

 

 

i) Out Scotia: 600,632.770 oz

 

 

total withdrawals; 600,632.770  oz

We had 1 adjustment: and it was a doozy:

5,388,380.267 oz leaves the dealer CNT and lands in its customer account

 

 

 

total dealer silver:  77.271 million

total dealer + customer silver:  315.122 million oz

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The total number of notices filed today for the OCT 2019. contract month is represented by 8 contract(s) FOR 40,000 oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in OCT, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 1452 x 5,000 oz = 7,260,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT. (20) and the number of notices served upon today 18 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the OCT/2019 contract month: 1452 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of OCT (20)- number of notices served upon today (8) x 5000 oz equals 7,320,000 oz of silver standing for the OCT contract month. 

WE GAINED 37 contracts or an additional 185,000 oz of silver will stand at the comex as they guys refused to morph into London based forwards. For the past several weeks we have been witnessing queue jumping in both gold and silver.

 

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN:  THE COMEX IS UNDER ASSAULT FOR BOTH PHYSICAL GOLD AND SILVER WITH SILVER IN THE LEAD BY FAR. DESPITE  MASSIVE RAIDS, LONGS CONTINUE WITH THEIR HUNT AT THE COMEX FOR PHYSICAL METAL.. IT WILL NOT BE LONG BEFORE WE WITNESS A COMMERCIAL FAILURE..STAY TUNED..WE WITNESSED CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING IN SILVER TODAY AND AN ATTEMPTED BANKER SHORT COVERING IN GOLD WITH ZERO SUCCESS.

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 8 notice(s) filed for 40,000 OZ for the OCT, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME:  134,555 CONTRACTS (we had considerable spreading activity..accumulation

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 118,180 CONTRACTS..

 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 118,180 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 590 million  OZ 84.4% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..makes sense!!

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

 

end

 

end

 

 

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NPV for Sprott

 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV RISES TO -1.44% ((NOV 14/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -1.10% to NAV (NOV 14/2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ -1.44%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 14.59 TRADING 14.10///DISCOUNT 3.85

 

 

 

END

 

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

NOV 14/WITH GOLD UP $10.00: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 896.77 TONNES

NOV 13/WITH GOLD UP $9.50 : A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .32 TONNES (PROBABLY TO PAY FOR FEES)/INVENTORY RESTS AT 896.77 TONNES

NOV 12: WITH GOLD DOWN $3.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER GOLD WITHDRAWAL OF 4.10 TONNES///INVENTORY RESTS AT 897.09 TONES

NOV 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.70 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 901.19 TONNES

NOV 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.50 TODAY: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL  OF 13.19 PAPER TONNES OF GOLD  INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 901.19 TONNES

NOV 7/2019 WITH GOLD DOWN $35.55 TODAY: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.38 TONNES

NOV 6/2019  WITH GOLD UP $8.70 TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.18 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.85 TONNES

NOV 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $26.00//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.67 TONNES

NOV 4/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.75 TODAY: A CONSIDERABLE WITHDRAWAL OF .88 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 914,67 TONNES

NOV 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.90 TODAY/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.55 TONNES

OCT 31/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD

OCT.30 WITH GOLD UP 5.50 TODAY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.93 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 915,55 TONNES

OCT 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 918.48 TONNES

OCT 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 918.48 TONNES

OCT 25/WITH GOLD UP $1.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 918.48 TONNES

OCT 24/WITH GOLD UP $8.75 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER GOLD WITHDRAWAL OF 1.18 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 918.48 TONNES

OCT 23/2016′ WITH GOLD UP $8.40 TODAY: A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 4.98 TONNES  IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.66 TONNES

OCT 22.WITH GOLD DOWN $0.15: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.64 TONNES

OCT 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.25//A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE : A MONSTROUS PAPER DEPOSIT OF 6.45 TONNES//GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.64 TONNES

OCT 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.25 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 918.19 TONNES

OCT 17/WITH GOLD UP $4.00 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 918.19 TONNES

OCT 16/WITH GOLD UP $10.25 TODAY//A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD; A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.66 TONNES

OCT 15//WITH GOLD DOWN$13.25 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.71 TONNES

OCT 14/2019: WITH GOLD UP $8.25 TODAY//NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.71 TONNES

OCT 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.90 TODAY NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.71 TONNES

OCT 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.00 TODAY, A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 921,71 TONNES

OCT.9//WITH GOLD UP $8.90//NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD

OCT 8\WITH GOLD DOWN 35 CENTS //NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD

OCT 7 WITH GOLD DOWN 7 DOLLARS//A BIG CHANGE //A DEPOSIT OF 2.93 TONNES//

INVENTORY RISES TO 923.76 TONNES

 

 

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NOV 14/2019/Inventory rests tonight at 896.77 tonnes

*IN LAST 705 TRADING DAYS: 39.60 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 605 TRADING DAYS: A NET 127.45 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

NOV 14/ WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.648 MILLION OZ/

NOV 13/WITH SILVER UP 20 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.524 MILLION /INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.648 MILLION OZ/

NOV 12/ WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.172 MILLION OZ..

NOV 11/2019 WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.172 MILLION OZ///

NOV 8/2019 WITH SILVER DOWN 19 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.172 MILLION OZ//

NOV 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 57 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.172

NOV 6/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT TODAY: A HUGE  CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 2.804 MILLION OZ///INVENTORY REST AT 379.172 MILLION OZ

NOV 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 44 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.368 MILLION OZ//

NOV 4/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 157,000 OZ TO PAY FOR FEES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.368 MILLION OZ//

NOV 1//WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.525 MILLION OZ

OCT 31//NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY

OCT 30.//WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.525 MILLION OZ

OCT 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL  CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV” A WITHDRAWAL OF 400,000 OZ TO PAY FOR FEES/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 376.525 MILLION OZ//

OCT 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 909,000 OZ FROM THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.925 MILLION OZ/

OCT 25/2019: WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 377.834 MILLION OZ//

OCT 24/2019: WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 377.834 MILLION OZ/

OCT 23/2019: WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 377.834 MILLION OZ//

OCT 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.963 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 377.834 MILLION OZ.

OCT 21/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.222 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV../INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.797 MILLION OZ//

OCT 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.919 MILLION O

OCT 17./WITH SILVER UP 17 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.87 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.919 MILLION OZ//

OCT 16/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 382.789 MILLION OZ//

OCT 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 30 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.15 MILLION OZ//. INVENTORY RESTS AT 382.789 MILLION OZ

OCT 14/WITH SILVER UP 18 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 384.939 MILLION OZ

OCT 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 384.939 MILLION OZ//

OCT 10/2016//WITH SILVER DOWN 22 CENTS: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.443 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 384.939 MILLION OZ

OCT 8/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS //NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 383.496 MILLION OZ

OCT 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 166,000 OZ/INVENTORY LOWERS TO 383.496 MILLION OZ

NOV 14:  SLV INVENTORY

376.648 MILLION OZ

 

 

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 1.94/ and libor 6 month duration 1.92

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: – .02

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 1.92%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 1.99

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.07

end

 

 

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

 

Gold Rises As Trade Deal Doubts Pressure Stocks

NEWS and COMMENTARY

Gold climbs, on track to post first gain in 5 sessions

Gold rises as trade deal doubts pressure equities

U.S. October budget deficit hits $134.5 billion, 34% higher than the year before

Fed’s Powell says interest rates unlikely to change as long as growth continues

Copper slips after Trump threat of more China tariffs

Global stocks sink after Trump threatens more China tariffs

Russia to cut share of U.S. dollar in National Wealth Fund, mulls other currencies

Beijing sends corporate China a message: Diversify away from U.S. dollar debt

Watch Podcast Here

GOLD PRICES (LBMA – USD, GBP & EUR – AM/ PM Fix)

13-Nov-19 1463.45 1462.90, 1138.86 1140.62 & 1328.23 1328.46
12-Nov-19 1455.00 1452.05, 1134.03 1130.42 & 1319.69 1318.17
11-Nov-19 1465.50 1458.70, 1144.41 1132.39 & 1328.33 1321.87
08-Nov-19 1466.85 1464.15, 1144.58 1142.62 & 1328.09 1328.13
07-Nov-19 1484.10 1484.25, 1153.44 1156.82 & 1339.40 1341.76
06-Nov-19 1488.55 1486.05, 1155.26 1154.51 & 1342.23 1341.31
05-Nov-19 1504.60 1488.95, 1166.37 1156.17 & 1352.18 1344.67
04-Nov-19 1509.20 1509.45, 1168.57 1169.52 & 1352.39 1353.98
01-Nov-19 1509.85 1508.80, 1165.76 1164.49 & 1354.79 1351.28

SIGN UP FOR OUR AWARD WINNING MARKET UPDATES HERE

Mark O’Byrne
Executive Director

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

China now warns corporate China to diversify away from USA dollar debt

(SCMP/Hong Kong/GATA)

 

Beijing sends corporate China a message: Diversify away from U.S. dollar debt

 Section: 

By Neal Kimberley
South China Morning Post, Hong Kong
Tuesday, November 12, 2019

China has capitalised on a low-yield environment in Europe to issue euro-denominated government bonds cheaply. It is also setting an example to Chinese companies, in the hope of weaning them off dollar-denominated debt dependency.

end

This is a must view..Grant Williams on gold

(Grant Williams)

Grant Williams: Crikey! What’s going on with gold?

 Section: 

2:45p ET Wednesday, November 13, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Grant Williams of Real Vision and the “Things That Make You Go Hmmm. …” letter, author of many brilliant presentations at financial conferences, like last year’s “Cry Wolf” —

https://www.realvision.com/grant-william-keynote-speech

— has done it again with “Crikey! What’s Going On with Gold?,” his presentation this month at the New Orleans Investment Conference and the Precious Metals Summit in Zurich.

In “Crikey!” Williams details powerful similarities between the financial markets of the present and those of the 1920s and 1930s. Gold was the big winner back then, Williams notes, and he thinks history is about to repeat itself.

“Crikey” is 34 minutes long and can be viewed at the Precious Metals Summit internet site here:

https://www.gowebcasting.com/events/precious-metals-summit-conferences-l…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

end

As dollars disappear many looking for short term money are using foreign exchange swaps. If this market seizes up again, these guys will be in serious trouble

(GATA/Reuters)

In swaps we trust? Disappearing dollars drive currency trading dependence

 Section: 

By Olga Cotaga
Reuters
Thursday, November 14, 2019

LONDON — As dollars dry up, global finance is growing increasingly dependent on opaque currency trading to keep cash flowing.

Banks and other short-term dollar borrowers are becoming ever more reliant on the $3.2 trillion-a-day foreign exchange swap market, data shows, leaving them dangerously exposed should U.S. lenders stop feeding the system, even if only temporarily.

… 

Swaps users had a scare in September, when the U.S. Federal Reserve had to pump cash into markets as rates in the $2.2 trillion U.S. “repo” market spiked and spilled into FX swap markets, sending the premium to borrow dollars shooting higher.

“It affected us in the FX swaps market a great deal. There was a lot of panic around, spreads widening, increased volatility,” said James Topham, a forex forwards trader at Canadian bank BMO, adding that on Sept. 16 “unusually large and persistent” dollar borrowing was evident from clients.

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-forex-swaps-insight/in-swaps-we-trust…

end

iii) Other physical stories:

The CME introduces a new category in our comex inventory to which i will now report on.  It is pledged gold used to satisfy outside money owed.  This gold will be subtracted from our registered category in my gold inventory report.

(Ronan Manly)

 

New COMEX Pledged Gold: Shrinking The Pool Of Registered Inventory

Submitted by Ronan Manly, BullionStar.com

For those who have at times struggled to understand the difference between COMEX inventory categories ‘registered gold’ and ‘eligible gold’, now your head can spin even more, since the CME’s COMEX has just introduced a new category – ‘pledged gold’.

This pledged category was first noticed on the infamous COMEX warehouse gold stocks report late last week by Nick Laird of GoldChartsRUs fame, with the pledged gold column intriguingly populated with an entry next to the New York vault of bullion bank, HSBC. What did this pledged column entry mean, we wondered, and where did it come from?

Pledged gold category – Newly added to the COMEX approved vault report

After some digging on the CME website, the answer was revealed. Pledged is a new gold inventory category representing COMEX gold warrants which have been deposited with CME Clearing as performance bond collateral, in other words margin collateral. CME defines performance bonds as follows:

“Performance Bonds, also known as margins, are deposits held at CME Clearing to ensure that clearing members can meet their obligations to their customers and to CME Clearing.”   

Before looking at how this relates to COMEX gold, a quick recap and some definitions are in order. Although COMEX gold futures rarely settle physically in gold, they are physically deliverable contracts which are capable of being settled in real gold. believe it or not. However in 2018, for example, COMEX gold deliveries totalled just 1.6 million ounces (51 tonnes), meaning that 99.98% of COMEX gold futures did not result in physical delivery, a Ponzi scheme if ever there was one.

But since 0.02% of COMEX gold futures do physically settle, at least by some shuffling of  warrants between bullion banks, the CME has therefore approved the vaulting facilities operated by nine vault providers in and around New York City and Delaware, which it refers to as depositories or approved warehouses, which can store gold that can be used for contract settlement. In New York, these vaults are run by HSBC, JP Morgan, Scotia Mocatta, MTB, Brinks, Malca-Amit and Loomis, and in Delaware the vaults are operated by Delaware Depository and IDS of Delaware.

Eligible – No relation

In COMEX parlance, “eligible gold” is all gold residing in an approved COMEX vault which is acceptable for delivery against COMEX gold futures contracts. This includes 100 gold oz bars and gold kilo bars, but not 400 oz gold bars. Importantly however, eligible gold just happens to be gold that is residing in the approved facilities that meets the eligibility requirements of the COMEX. It does not necessarily mean that the gold is in the approved vaults for trading purposes. Some of it may have been deposited in the vaults by owners who are trading COMEX gold futures, but other eligible gold could be deposited in the approved vaults for a host of other reasons unrelated to gold futures trading.

“Registered gold” on the other hand, is eligible gold for which a warrant has been issued by an approved warehouse. These warrants, not to be confused with equity warrants, are ‘documents of title’ issued by the warehouse in satisfaction of delivery of a gold futures contract. They confirm title to a certain quantity of gold of acceptable quality that is stored in that warehouse. A warrant will therefore specify a certain number of gold bars, the serial numbers of those bars and the refiner brands of those bars.

Ponzi Scheme – Only 1.1 mn ozs (34 tonnes) of gold in COMEX registered stockpiles. Source: www.goldchartsrus.com

 

Now this is where it gets interesting as regards the new “Pledged gold” category. Starting on Monday 4 November, the CME began allowing its clearing members to deposit and use COMEX gold warrants as collateral in meeting performance bond requirements for its Base Guaranty Fund Products and Interest rate Swaps (IRS).

To reflect this change, the CME therefore needed to amend Chapter 7 of its NYMEX/COMEX Rulebook which covers “Delivery Facilities and Procedures” to reflect the acceptance of COMEX gold warrants as collateral. It did so by adding a reference to “pledged” precious metal, while defining “pledged” metal as “registered metal for which the warrant that has been issued is on deposit with CME Clearing for performance bond.

Pledging Gold = Freezes Registered Gold

Furthermore, the amendment also added “the requirement for approved facilities to report pledged metal to the Exchange”, hence the appearance of the new pledged gold category on the COMEX daily warehouse report.

Critically, the amendment also clarified that “clearing members that have deposited gold warrants as performance bond with CME Clearing may not use these warrants to satisfy their delivery obligations.” Simply put, this will therefore mean that any registered gold whose warrants are used as collateral cannot be used to settle gold futures.

Finally, the amendment also adds that “gold warrants that are deposited with CME Clearing as performance bond cannot be cancelled without the consent of CME Clearing.” All of these changes can be seen in the recent one page CME summary titled “Addition of COMEX Gold Warrants as Acceptable CME Clearing Performance Bond Collateral”.

Prior to the acceptance of COMEX gold warrants as collateral, the CME had already been accepting “London gold bullion” as collateral for these performance bond requirements, so in effect COMEX gold warrants have now been added to the mix. What exactly this “London gold bullion” takes the form of is not clear, for example, is it real physical gold or unallocated bullion bank created book entries? If there are no fees for storing, insuring and handling any “London gold bullion” deposits, you can bet your bottom dollar that it is not physical gold.

Whatever it is, the CME is also now increasing the collateral limit from a previous $250 million per clearing member for “London gold bullion” to a new combined limit of $750 million per clearing member for both “London gold bullion” and COMEX gold warrants.

Registered COMEX gold inventories are now lower than at many times in the last 10 years. Source: www.goldchartsrus.com

Conclusion

COMEX registered gold stocks (those which are available for delivery) are currently only about 34 tonnes, a tiny foundation underpinning for a giant inverted paper pyramid. At the same time, COMEX gold futures contracts trade the equivalent of 27 million ounces per day (equivalent to 260,000 tonnes of gold per year) –  more gold than has been mined in history, and over 86 times annual gold mining supply.

The amount of pledged gold listed on the latest COMEX gold warehouse report is now growing, up at 237,000 oz of gold held at HSBC’s vault under the HSBC Tower at 1 West 39th Street, SC 2 Level, in Manhattan. If and when it continues to grow, it will be well worth watching these COMEX reports in future.

If this pledged gold category snowballs, it will be even more important to remember that any COMEX gold warrants which are deposited as performance bond collateral with CME Clearing will move out of the Registered gold category, since the holder “may not use these warrants to satisfy their delivery obligations.

Which will mean an even smaller pool of registered gold to keep COMEX gold futures trading going, a paper gold trading casino which is actually a giant Ponzi scheme, but for the time being is unfortunately and perversely still nearly single-handedly responsible for international gold price discovery in the global gold market.

This article was originally published on the BullionStar.com website under the same title “New COMEX Pledged Gold – Shrinking the Pool of Registered Inventory“.

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
end

By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: November 14, 2019 ~

Yesterday Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell testified before the Joint Economic Committee of Congress. Only one Congressman, Kenny Marchant (R-TX), had the courage to ask Powell about the Fed’s intervention in the repo loan market beginning on September 17. Since that time the Fed has been pumping hundreds of billions of dollars each week (that the New York Fed creates electronically out of thin air) into its 24 primary dealers on Wall Street. These primary dealers are not commercial banks that might be inclined to use the funds to make loans to local businesses or to consumers to buy a house and help their local economies. No, 23 of the 24 primary dealers are stock brokerage firms and investment banks that engage in leveraged bets in the stock, bond, commodities, and derivatives markets. The 24th is a foreign bank. (See primary dealer list below.)

There is nothing in the legislation that created the Fed, the Federal Reserve Act, that allows it to be the lender-of-last-resort to the trading houses on Wall Street. The Fed’s Discount Window, which is legally allowed to make emergency or seasonal loans, is restricted by law to just deposit-taking banks – not Wall Street trading houses.

And yet, bailing out Wall Street is exactly what the Fed has been doing since September 17 of this year and what it did secretly to the tune of $29 trillion during the financial crisis from December 2007 to the middle of 2010. The Fed does have some leeway in an emergency situation but that has to be brief and defined. The Fed has announced that it’s planning to keep its current money spigot to Wall Street flowing into at least January of next year. But according to Powell’s testimony to Congress yesterday, there’s no pressing crisis on Wall Street. Powell stated that “The core of the financial sector appears resilient, with leverage low and funding risk limited relative to the levels of recent decades.”

Powell knows that it’s a fallacy to say that leverage is low on Wall Street. It’s only low if one ignores the hundreds of trillions of notional (face amount) derivatives residing at the mega Wall Street banks.

Powell and the Federal Reserve have apparently decided that they are going to push the narrative with Congress and the media that these hundreds of billions of dollars each week that are being pumped out to Wall Street at the preposterously low rate of interest of between 1.55 and 1.59 percent are simply “technical” open market operations that the Fed does routinely as part of monetary policy. Of course, the last time it did this was during the financial crisis so it’s pretty hard to call it routine.

This is how the exchange went between Congressman Marchant and Powell:

Congressman Kenny Marchant (R-Texas) Questions Fed Chairman Powell on Repo Loans During Joint Economic Committee Hearing, November 13, 2019

Marchant: “The disruption in the repo market that took place in September. Anticipated? Not Anticipated? Do you anticipate keeping the expansion at the level it is until you’re sure that won’t happen again?”

Powell: “Well, so, anticipated or not. It’s a different world post-crisis. And really because of all the expansion in our balance sheet and essentially what we’ve done now is we’ve now required financial institutions to have a lot more liquidity on their balance sheets so that the Fed doesn’t have to run in with our own liquidity. [Actually, just the opposite is true. The Fed allowed JPMorgan to reduce its reserves at the Fed by $145 billion since September 30 of last year and the Fed is now the major source of liquidity in the repo market.]

“So I think that’s a big benefit to the financial system. But a lot of that liquidity is held in our reserves. We used to manage the interest rate by keeping reserves scarce and we had a total of $20 billion. Right now we have in excess of $1.5 trillion in reserves. And so that means that we’re trying to find that level as we allowed the balance sheet to shrink, where reserves would become scarce, and there was really no way to know.

“I think the data that we had suggested that we were not close to that point until September. I think we’re still very much looking at what happened in September. But I think we learned in September that we needed to make sure that reserves didn’t go under that level we were at in mid-September, which is a little bit shy of one and a half trillion. So that’s really what we’re doing.

“It’s technical. I think we have it under control. We’re prepared to continue to learn and adjust as we do this but it’s a process. I would say it’s one that doesn’t really have any implications for the economy or for the general public though.”

Thus, the new talking points are: it’s too technical for the common brain so move along and leave it to the geniuses at the Federal Reserve. The second talking point is: nothing to see here because it doesn’t impact the economy or general public.

But, of course, this is dangerous propaganda. The Fed is back to creating the same kind of moral hazard that it created when it secretly pumped trillions of dollars into the Wall Street trading houses and global foreign banks during the financial crisis and then waged a multi-year court battle to keep it secret from the American people.

The Fed’s current money spigot impacts the U.S. economy because it further enriches the top 10 percent who own the vast majority of all stocks and bonds in the U.S. It impacts the economy because it is ballooning the size of the Fed’s balance sheet (now back above $4 trillion) which the U.S. taxpayer is ultimately on the hook for. It impacts the U.S. economy because it is worsening the existing bubble that already exists in the stock market, thus making the inevitable bursting of the bubble worse. And it impacts the U.S. economy because this big propaganda lie further undermines the trust the American people have in the Federal Reserve and U.S. banking system.

And right on cue, the New York Fed, the regional Fed bank that directly controls this money spigot to Wall Street and was the stonewaller-in-chief during the financial crisis, is back to its old games again of denying, thwarting or stonewalling requests for information on these repo loans from the public and the media.

The Federal Reserve in Washington, D.C. is considered an “independent Federal agency.” Its Board of Governors are appointed by the President and confirmed by the U.S. Senate. The New York Fed, on the other hand, is owned by the banks in its region (as are the other 11 regional Fed banks). So while the Federal Reserve is required to comply with the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA), the New York Fed is not. But to save face, the New York Fed likes to say that it “complies with the spirit of FOIA.” Which it decidedly does not do when it comes to any matter that might pierce the dark curtain it has drawn around its activities with the mega banks on Wall Street.

Yesterday, the Gold Anti-Trust Committee posted a letter it had received from the New York Fed on its website from Shawn Elizabeth Phillips, the New York Fed’s corporate secretary. The letter denied the Gold Anti-Trust Committee’s request for information on the repo loans by cleverly pretending that these repo loans had somehow magically become part of the loans made at the New York Fed’s Discount Window, which are subject to a two-year delay in releasing names of borrowers.

As we previously explained in this article, the Discount Window is not allowed to make loans to securities firms, just deposit-taking banks. So this is just the typical stonewalling tactic by the New York Fed.

Wall Street On Parade filed its own Freedom of Information request with the New York Fed on October 2. First we were told it would be responded to within 20 business days, which would have been October 31. On that date we received an unsigned email from the New York Fed telling us our request would be delayed until at least December 5.

We have filed a complaint with the Federal Reserve’s Inspector General, seeking an inquiry into the matter.

The New York Fed is the most inherently conflicted Frankenbank in the history of central banks. Not one member of its Board or management is elected by the American people and yet it can create trillions of dollars at the push of an electronic button and make that money flow to benefit the interests of the top ten percent of Americans. (It’s no wonder that New York is home to 70 billionaires.)

Henry Steele Commager, an American historian, once wrote that “The generation that made the nation thought secrecy in government one of the instruments of old world tyranny and committed itself to the principle that a democracy cannot function unless people are permitted to know what their government is up to.”

Tragically, the U.S. government has outsourced its money-printing to an unaccountable, privately-owned facility in lower Manhattan that has no respect for the public’s right to know. The New York Fed has a long history of denying basic information to Wall Street On Parade in order to keep a very dark curtain around its interconnections to Wall Street’s trading houses.

In 2013 Wall Street On Parade attempted to obtain a simple photograph of the trading floor of the New York Fed, which interacts daily with the trading floors on Wall Street. No photograph was forthcoming. Instead, we had to spend weeks researching other sources until we located photographs from an educational video.

On April 6, 2015 William (Bill) Dudley, the President of the New York Fed at the time, stated in a speech that “the Federal Reserve already is very transparent and accountable to Congress and to the public.” Two days later, Wall Street On Parade attempted to get one piece of very basic information from the Fed. Again we were stonewalled. We wanted to know if JPMorgan Chase, a bank operating under a deferred prosecution agreement for two felony counts and under a criminal investigation for potential currency rigging (it pleaded guilty to that count in May 2015) was still the custodian of $1.7 trillion of mortgage backed securities owned by the Federal Reserve, as we had reported on November 3, 2014.

The Federal Reserve Board of Governors in Washington, D.C. has also been a party to protecting its interactions with Wall Street from public scrutiny. Ben Bernanke, the Fed Chairman during the financial crisis, stated that one of his priorities was to “make the Federal Reserve more transparent.” But in December of 2013, when we asked the communications office of the Fed for Bernanke’s 2007 and 2008 appointment calendar, we were told we would have to file a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) request for it – an obvious stalling tactic for something so basic.

When we finally received the appointment calendar, there were redactions of 84 meetings that occurred between January 1, 2007 and the pivotal collapse of Bear Stearns on the weekend of March 15-16, 2008. Bernanke’s calendar for March 7, 2008 shows a full day of appointments redacted. On Saturday, March 8, Bernanke had an anonymous conference call with unnamed parties. At 11 a.m. the following Monday, March 10, he held a meeting in his office from 11 a.m. to 12 noon but whom he met with was completely blacked out.

The Fed might possibly justify this level of secrecy in the midst of a financial panic, but we received the deeply redacted materials six years after the crisis.

We are far from the only media outlet to have difficulty unleashing federal records from the iron grip of the Federal Reserve. Bloomberg News battled the Fed in court for years to obtain details about the unprecedented trillions of dollars in revolving loans the New York Fed made to Wall Street for almost three years during the financial crisis. On October 28, 2010, Matthew Winkler, Editor in Chief at the time of Bloomberg News, wrote an OpEd in his competitor’s newspaper, the Wall Street Journal, titled “Time for Bailout Transparency.” Winkler was attempting to shame the Fed into complying with the law and the courts, which had ruled in favor of Bloomberg News. Winkler wrote:

“There is no history that shows opacity is better for markets and the economy than transparency. Money flees secrecy. Unanswered questions engender suspicion, which undermines the financial system while giving some participants an unfair advantage.”

Fed Chairman Powell can’t open his press conferences saying that the role of the Federal Reserve is to represent the interests of the American people and then deny those same people the right to sunshine on its actions if he hopes to maintain any semblance of credibility. If he continues on this path, the history books will be as unkind to him as they have been to Bernanke and former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan.

END

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early THURSDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 67.0210/ 

 

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  67.0246   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 4.63 POINTS OR 0.16%

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 247.77 POINTS OR 0.93%

 

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 178.32 POINTS OR 0.76%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL RED/

 

 

 

USA dollar index UP TO 98.38/Euro FALLS TO 1.0998

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. –.07/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 108.57/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 57.59 and Brent: 62.93

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE DOWN/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO -.34%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 1.30% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.46%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.54: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO : 1.47

3k Gold at $1469.50 silver at: 17.02   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 25/100 in roubles/dollar) 64.09

3m oil into the 57 dollar handle for WTI and 62 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 108.57 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9885 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0875 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to 0.34%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 1.84% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.32%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.7669..

Stocks Struggle Amid Barrage Of Dismal Econ Data, HK Violence As Germany Narrowly Avoids Recession

Global stocks and US equity futures eased further on Thursday as the latest dismal Chinese data missed across the board and showed further economic slowdown, with investment growth printing weakest since 1998…

 

… adding to worries about the global growth fallout from the U.S.-China trade war. U.S. futures were down 0.14%, following a record-high close on the S&P 500 on Wednesday. Futures bounced briefly after news that China customs have lifted restrictions on US poultry meat imports, with China’s Global Times acknowledging saying the move comes “amid the continuation of tradetalks, paving the way for hundreds of millions of dollars worth US meat export to China”; the US exported $390MM worth of poultry to China in 2014 before the ban. Yes, million, not billion.

 

With earnings season ending, Cisco Systems tumbled in early trading after its quarterly sales forecast fell far short of projections, while WalMart surged after the company raised its full year outlook. Altice Europe NV beat earnings estimates, while Burberry Group Plc climbed after reporting six-month earnings that exceeded expectations.

The MSCI All-Country World index was down 0.14% after start of trading in Europe. European shares initially fell, but later rebounded after data showing the German economy just barely missed a recession, rising 0.1% in the third quarter, avoiding a contraction thanks to consumer spending, and beating expectations of a second consecutive contraction.

 

While a recession was averted, the news was hardly good as Germany grew at just half the pact of the overall eurozone as growth across the entire continent grinds to a halt.

“Obviously it’s better than expected, but actually I would argue is that it’s a hollow victory because in effect it makes a fiscal response less likely,” said Michael Hewson, chief markets analyst at CMC Markets in London. “I think if they’d gone into a technical recession, the pressure to loosen the purse strings so to speak would have been much much greater.”

In Asia, stocks fell after very poor economic data in China and Japan showed the trade war between Beijing and Washington was hitting growth in some of the world’s biggest economies. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell 0.3%, while Japan’s Nikkei index fell further, dropping 0.8%. Asian stocks slid for a second day, led by material producers, as China’s economy slowed further in October, with factory output, retail sales and investment all below estimates. Most markets in the region were down, with Japan leading declines. The Topix fell 0.9%, dragged down by Sony and Toyota Motor, as Japan’s economy slowed sharply in the third quarter amid shrinking exports. Q3 GDP in Japan printed at just 0.1% – the same as Germany – and missing estimates of 0.2%.

 

The Shanghai Composite Index reversed earlier losses to close 0.2% higher, supported by Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine and Kweichow Moutai. Shanghai blue chips were supported by expectations that the gloomy figures would add to the case for stimulus. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index retreated as violent protests disrupted public transport for a fourth day in the city. India’s Sensex climbed as positive earnings continued to fuel optimism among investors Australia’s S&P/ASX200 wiped earlier gains to close 0.5% higher.

As reported last night, China’s factory output growth slowed significantly more than expected in October, as weakness in global and domestic demand and the drawn-out Sino-U.S. trade war weighed on broad segments of the world’s second-largest economy.

Fixed asset investment, a key driver of economic growth, rose just 5.2% from January to October, against expected growth of 5.4% and the weakest pace since Reuters record began in 1996. China’s industrial production growth slowed sharply in October, with the 4.7% year-on-year rise well below forecasts for 5.4%. Investment growth hit a record low and retail sales also missed expectations.

China and the United States are holding in-depth discussions on a “phase one” trade agreement, and cancelling tariffs is an important condition to reach such a deal, the Chinese commerce ministry said on Thursday, indicating it now believes it has leverage over the impeachment-scarred Trump, and something which the US president will likely balk at. Specifically, China’s MOFCOM said cancelling tariffs is an important condition for achieving a trade deal between US and China; degree of tariff cancellation should entirely reflect importance of a Phase One agreement, sides remain in discussion an a Phase One agreement.

The weak figures also came as market confidence about a resolution being reached weakens, with a new Reuters poll showing most economists do not expect Washington and Beijing to strike a permanent truce over the coming year. Trump offered no update on the progress of negotiations in a policy speech on Tuesday. The Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday that talks had snagged on farm purchases.

Worries about spiraling violence as anti-government protests intensify in Hong Kong have also soured investor sentiment. Protesters paralyzed parts of Hong Kong for a fourth day, forcing school closures and blocking highways and other transport links in a marked escalation of unrest in the financial hub. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 0.8% to a fresh one-month low.

In FX, safe havens such as the yen and Swiss franc gained as did the dollar whilethe euro brushed off news that Germany had avoided a recession, while implied pound volatility surged ahead of the U.K.’s December election. The yen was quoted at 108.70 per dollar, close to a one-week high. The Swiss franc traded at 0.9875 versus the greenback, near the highest in more than a week. The pound edged up then reversed gains, as traders are starting to brace for larger swings over the one month into the election result. The Australian dollar dropped as the nation’s employment unexpectedly contracted putting pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia to lower rates. The data “puts the market back on the scent of a possible December RBA rate cut, which is why we have seen such a strong reaction in the Australian currency,” says Ray Attrill, head of foreign-exchange strategy at National Australia Bank.

In rates, 10-year Treasury yields fell for a second day, dropping to 1.8410% compared with its U.S. close of 1.869% on Wednesday, and 1.973% one week ago.

“Increasing signs of unrest in Hong Kong and Latin America coupled with the uncertainty around the trade talks is keeping the risk-off sentiment well and alive in FX markets,” said Lee Hardman, a London-based currency strategist at MUFG.

In commodities, oil rose after industry data showed a surprise drop in US crude inventories, while comments from an OPEC official about lower-than-expected U.S. shale production growth in 2020 also provided some support. Brent crude futures rose 0.74% to $62.83 a barrel while WTI crude gained 0.77% to $57.56 per barrel. The yield on

Expected data include PPI and jobless claims. Walmart, Canopy Growth, Aurora Cannabis, and Nvidia are among companies reporting earnings.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures little changed at 3,096.00
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.08% to 405.53
  • MXAP down 0.5% to 163.53
  • MXAPJ down 0.3% to 522.40
  • Nikkei down 0.8% to 23,141.55
  • Topix down 0.9% to 1,684.40
  • Hang Seng Index down 0.9% to 26,323.69
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.2% to 2,909.87
  • Sensex up 0.4% to 40,286.06
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.6% to 6,735.05
  • Kospi up 0.8% to 2,139.23
  • German 10Y yield fell 2.8 bps to -0.328%
  • Euro down 0.05% to $1.1001
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 2.7 bps to 0.898%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 2.4 bps to 0.426%
  • Brent futures up 0.9% to $62.91/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.4% to $1,469.19
  • U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 98.34

Top Overnight News

  • China’s economy slowed further in October, signaling policy makers’ piecemeal stimulus is failing to boost output and investment amid ongoing trade tensions with the U.S. and subdued domestic demand
  • “We should hold steady for a while and watch how things unfold before taking any more action,” Fed Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker said. “I held this same view regarding the last two cuts. I would have preferred to hold firm”
  • Japan’s economy slowed in the third quarter as overall exports fell amid trade tensions and a shopping splurge before a sales tax increase ran down stockpiles of goods
  • Hong Kong said all schools would be suspended through Sunday amid a fourth day of chaos that has seen the city’s subway operator partially suspend service and protesters continue to block roads
  • A previously unknown account of President Donald Trump stressing his desire for Ukraine to investigate a political rival marked the opening hearing of House Democrats’ impeachment inquiry, as Republicans gave speeches dismissing the testimony as irrelevant
  • Oil rose for a second day after an industry report pointed to a drop in U.S. inventories and OPEC said it sees potential for a “sharp” cut in crude production next year from countries outside the group
  • Level of tariffs removal should reflect importance of the phase- one deal, China’s Ministry of Commerce spokesman Gao Feng says at a regular briefing
  • Germany dodged a much-anticipated recession, unexpectedly eking out modest growth thanks to domestic demand. The surprise expansion doesn’t change the fact that the economy is going through a torrid period that’s turned it from the euro area’s traditional growth engine into a source of weakness
  • U.K. retail sales unexpectedly fell in October, leaving growth over the last three months at its weakest for 1 1/2 years

Asian equity markets traded somewhat mixed after a tentative lead from Wall St peers due to ongoing trade uncertainty and as the region digested several substandard tier-1 data releases. ASX 200 (+0.6%) was positive as tech and consumer staples led the early broad gains across Australia’s sectors and with abysmal jobs data supporting prospects the RBA may need to ease further. Nikkei 225 (-0.8%) succumbed to softer than expected Q3 GDP which disappointed hopes of front-loading ahead of the sales tax hike and raised questions regarding the Q4 outlook, although there were some success stories with Yahoo Japan the biggest gainer on news of a potential merger with Line Corp which also provided a tailwind for their respective parents SoftBank and Naver. Hang Seng (-0.9%) was the laggard and Shanghai Comp. (+0.2%) was indecisive amid the ongoing precarious US-China trade climate as President Trump commented that a deal is moving along very rapidly, although other reports suggested trade talks may have hit a snag over agricultural purchases. Furthermore, sentiment was also dragged by weaker than expected Chinese Industrial Production and Retail Sales data, as well as a decline in profits by index heavyweight Tencent and continued unrest in Hong Kong where protesters persisted with their new strategy of weekday disruptions. Finally, 10yr JGBs were higher and broke through resistance at 153.00, with prices underpinned by the cautious sentiment, weaker than expected Q3 economic growth and firmer demand at the 5yr auction.

Top Asian News

  • Hong Kong Money Markets Show Investor Calm Is Cracking
  • Hong Kong SFC Bans Ex-Deutsche Securities Staff for Life
  • India Is Said to Mull Cutting Indian Oil Stake to Below 51%
  • Philippines Takes ‘Prudent Pause’ on Key Rate as Growth Rebounds

Negative news regarding US/China trade talks, which have reportedly “hit a snag” over agricultural purchases and Chinese resistance to US demands for strong enforcement mechanisms, coupled with a disappointing data in the form of weak Chinese Industrial Production and Japanese GDP, saw major European bourses (Euro Stoxx 50 unch.) trade cautiously on Thursday morning. An upside surprise for German Q3 GDP numbers, which saw the country narrowly avoid a technical recession, was unable materially lift the DAX, which is weighed on by underperformance in a number of its heavyweights; Daimler (-3.0%) is lower on the news a shift into electric vehicles will negatively impact 2020 and 2021 earnings. Additionally, Merck (-1.6%) shares are under pressure despite upgrades to EBITDA and revenue guidance as the Co.’s Performance Materials unit saw adjusted EBITDA drop by 12.7% YY, while the Co. also warned that the economic environment could result in a moderate decline in semiconductors. Similarly, RWE (-3.3%) shares are also lower despite upgrades to EBITDA and revenue guidance after the Co. posted substantial losses for its generation’s unit. Later in the morning, European bourses received a short-lived lift on the news that Chinese customs have lifted restrictions on US poultry meat imports, albeit the move was fleeting. In terms of the sectors; defensives are amongst the outperformers, with Health Care (unch.), Utilities (-0.2%) and Consumer Staples (unch.). Tech (-0.5%) is also outperforming the market; Wirecard (+0.9%) is on the front foot following the news that the payments Co. has secured YeePay as a partner for global online bookings, with potential transaction volume from this is in excess of EUR 17bln per annum. In terms of other notable movers; Altice (+1.0%) and Henkel (-2.0%) are higher after earnings; the former reported strong EBITDA and revenue results while the latter confirmed its FY19 outlook. K+S (-2.1%) earnings were weaker as the Co. cut its 2019 potash production target by 200k tons and, subsequently, cut its FY19 EBITDA target. Ryanair (-1.0%) shares were pressured after the airline was downgraded to underweight at Exane BP. Finally, Bouygues (+1.4%) was bid after positive comments from its CEO, who said competition remains intense in the French telecom market, but less so than last year.

Top European News

  • Germany Dodges Recession With Unexpected Third-Quarter Growth
  • U.K. Retail Sales Unexpectedly Fall as Brexit Fears Take Toll
  • German Property Deals Boom as Investors Look Past Economic Gloom
  • RWE’s Slow Renewables Growth Overshadows Trading Strength

In FX, the Aussie has tumbled to the bottom of the G10 table after a raft of sub-forecast data overnight, kicking off with Japanese Q3 GDP and extending through Australia’s October jobs report to Chinese IP and Retail Sales. Naturally, the big disappointment and shock was a decline in payrolls that was mostly down to a fall in permanent positions and contributed to an uptick in the unemployment rate, albeit in line with expectations. Aud/Usd recoiled from just over 0.6840 to sub-0.6800, while Aud/Nzd retreated further from pre-RBNZ peaks through 1.0650 and towards 1.0625 as the Kiwi holds up better vs a still rangebound Greenback (DXY meandering between 98.427-282) and within sight of the 0.6400 handle awaiting NZ manufacturing PMI and more from Governor Orr on the surprise decision to keep rates on hold this month. Note, Bascand underlined switch to wait-and-see mode last night, though left the door open to another OCR cut next February, if warranted.

  • JPY/CHF/GBP/EUR/CAD – All narrowly mixed vs the US Dollar, with the Yen and Franc maintaining an underlying bid and safe-haven premium even though China may have alleviated some trade jitters amidst reports of an ag snag by lifting its ban on US poultry. Usd/Jpy remains below a key Fib and pivoting chart support ahead of 108.50, while Aud/Jpy has retreated to around 73.80 amidst the all round Aussie underperformance noted above, but could pare some losses and revisit 74.00 given a hefty 1.6 bn option expiries in the cross at that strike. Meanwhile, Usd/Chf is back under 0.9900 and Eur/Chf near the base of a 1.0903-1.0864 band ahead of a speech by SNB’s Maechler that may well be used as another opportunity to espouse the mantra of sub-zero rates and proactive currency intervention to ensure that the Franc does not appreciate to excessive levels. Elsewhere, Sterling only saw a shallow and brief set-back when UK retail sales fell well short of consensus, with Cable back above 1.2850 and flirting with the 10 DMA, while Eur/Gbp is retesting 0.8555 stops, as Eur/Usd relinquishes 1.1000+ status recovered in wake of German Q3 GDP data beating forecasts that would have consigned the economy to a technical recession if confirmed. Note, however, the single currency is still finding support close to a 1.0993 Fib, while the Loonie is straddling 1.3250 again and eyeing Canadian new house prices to provide independent direction and a distraction to US claims and PPI.
  • SEK/NOK – Although Statistics Sweden has issued another warning about the reliability and sample size of the figures used to formulate monthly employment reports, the Swedish Krona appears to be taking the data at face value, as Eur/Sek probes below 10.6900 vs almost 10.7300 at one stage and compared to Eur/Nok that is elevated above 10.1000 and has been as high as 10.1300+.
  • EM – Some positive platitudes and constructive discussions, but no resolutions from the talks between Turkish and US Presidents has left the Lira under pressure and only a little off worst levels vs the Buck near 5.7800 in contrast to the Rand that has recouped losses on the back of significantly better that anticipated SA mining production and irrespective of persistent output disruption at Eskom. Indeed, Usd/Zar has pulled back sharply from 15.0000+ peaks to sub-14.8300 before bouncing.

In commodities, crude markets are in the green despite the markets tentative feel, with a surprise draw in API inventory data last night helping underpin the benchmarks. Front month WTI and Brent futures advanced as high as USD 57.80/bbl and USD 63.20/bbl respectively, fresh highs for the week, although weak Japanese and Chinese data has since capped further upside. Looking ahead, official EIA inventory data will be published at 16:00 GMT. Fresh crude specific news flow has been light, although the OPEC Monthly Oil Report is due to be released at 12:10 GMT, which will be the final report before the Cartel convenes next month. In terms of metals; Copper has been on the front foot, pushing above its recent USD 2.6330/lbs to USD 2.6480/lbs intraday range, as the red metal largely shrugs off weak Chinese data. Tuesday reports of strikes in Chile appear to not have had a meaningful impact on the supply. Meanwhile, Gold is trading firmer; amid wider feelings of risk aversion, the precious metal has now reclaimed the USD 1470/oz handle.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY, prior 1.7%; PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.0%
  • 8:30am: PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 1.5%, prior 2.0%; PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, est. 0.2%, prior -0.3%
  • 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, est. 215,000, prior 211,000; Continuing Claims, est. 1.68m, prior 1.69m
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, prior 59.1

Central Banks

  • 9am: Clarida Speaks at Cato Institute in Washington
  • 9:10am: Fed’s Evans Speaks at Fintech Event in Philadelphia
  • 10am: Powell Appears Before House Budget Committee
  • 11:45am: Fed’s Daly Makes Opening Remarks at Economic Policy Conference
  • 12pm: Fed’s Williams Speaks at Economic Policy Conference
  • 12:20pm: Fed’s Bullard Speaks in Louisville
  • 1pm: Fed’s Kaplan Speaks at Community Forum in Texas
  • 9:15pm: Bank of Canada’s Poloz Speaks at San Francisco Fed Conference

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Overnight we’ve seen China October economic data released which was weaker across the board with industrial production coming in at +4.7% yoy (vs. +5.4%yoy expected), retail sales printing at +7.2% yoy (vs. 7.8% yoy) and the YtD fixed asset ex rural investment sliding to the lowest since at least Feb 1998 (where we have data so likely much longer) to +5.2% yoy (vs. +5.4% yoy). The surveyed unemployment rate came in at 5.1% (vs. 5.2% previously). Following the release, China’s National Statistics Bureau spokeswoman Liu Aihua said that China’s overall economic momentum hasn’t changed while the challenges it faces shouldn’t be underestimated before adding that China faces rising cyclical issues and structural conflicts. The NBS also said downside growth pressure has continually intensified and the country should carry out policies to increase economic resilience and meet whole-year economic growth targets. Our strategists think the policy responses will be limited though as China has met their employment target for the year and are still seeing de-leveraging as a policy goal.

Elsewhere, Japan’s preliminary annualised seasonally adjusted Q3 GDP also printed below expectations at +0.2% qoq vs. (+0.9% qoq expected) with private consumption coming in at +0.4% qoq (vs. +0.6% qoq) while business spending printed in line with consensus at +0.9% qoq. However, the previous quarters GDP reading was revised upwards to +1.8% qoq from +1.3% qoq.

In other overnight news, President Trump said that “Our trade agreement with China is moving along very rapidly. We’ll see what happens but it’s moving along rapidly. China wants to make a deal, that I can tell you.” Elsewhere, the SCMP reported overnight that Senator Marco Rubio, sponsor of the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act, posted a comment on Twitter yesterday that he made “significant progress” in moving the bill toward passage shortly after a meeting with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. So one to watch.

Markets in China are trading flat this morning despite the weaker economic data while the Hang Seng (-0.80%) and Nikkei (-0.69%) are down and the Kospi (+0.26%) is up. The Hang Seng has continued to be weighed down by ongoing protest with WTD decline standing at -4.7% – the highest since the week of August 7. Elsewhere, futures on the S&P 500 are down -0.08% while 10y USTs yields are -1.6bps lower this morning.

Risk assets started off weak yesterday but progressively rallied as the day progressed with the US ending up in positive territory turning the day around even if the trade news has been more uncertain this week. The initial culprit for the risk off appeared to be the overnight WSJ article we highlighted this time yesterday which suggested that tariffs remained a “stumbling block” in the US and China coming “to a limited trade deal”. The article went on to say that “the logjam centers on whether the US has agreed to remove existing tariffs in the so-called “phase one” deal that the two countries have been working toward—or whether the U.S. would only cancel tariffs set to take effect December 15th”. The S&P 500 managed to rally back to positive territory after opening down -0.43%, but then there was then a second bout of risk aversion later in the session. Reports suggested that agriculture purchases are the main stumbling block, sending the index back down -0.33% from the highs, since most have assumed that the agriculture issue is one of the least-difficult to resolve. The potential for auto tariffs continues to lingers as well, at the USTR has reportedly sent its report on negotiations with Europe and Japan to the White House, which could allow the President to implement tariffs if he chooses. We expected to hear something last night at the latest (likely a postponement) but he is not required to decide firmly either way on any specific timeline.

Ultimately, the S&P 500 ended +0.07%, while the NASDAQ finished -0.05%. The Dow gained +0.33%, almost entirely attributable to the +7.26% rally for Disney after its new streaming service gained an amazing 10 million subscribers in its first day available in the US and Canada. Those moves came after the STOXX 600 finished -0.26% however there were bigger selloffs for the likes of the IBEX (-1.21%) and the FTSE MIB (-0.86%).

Conversely, bonds were well bid with the bulk of the move lower for yields coming during the European session. In the end 10y Bund yields closed back down at -0.300% (-4.8bps) having spent four whole days above the dizzying heights of -0.30%. Last night 10y Treasuries ended -5.0bps lower at 1.884% while the 2s10s curve flattened -2.4bps to 24.6bps. If anything, the US October CPI report helped to fuel the rally for bonds with the unrounded core number of 0.1572% comparing to the consensus of 0.2%. That saw the annual rate dip down one-tenth to 2.3% yoy. The various short term annualised rates are still strong though and therefore unlikely to change the narrative much for the Fed.

Later on, Powell’s speech in front of the Joint Economic Committee was light on new information. The prepared remarks were released early with little in the way of new changes from the last FOMC meeting. The baseline outlook was characterised as “favourable” but that “noteworthy risks remain”. The text also showed “we see the current stance of monetary policy as likely to remain appropriate as long as incoming information about the economy remains broadly consistent with our outlook”. In the Q&A, Powell said that the risk of lower inflation is greater than the risk of higher inflation, which was interpreted dovishly. He also confirmed that he expects to finish the Fed’s policy review in the middle of next year.

As for the remaining data yesterday, in Germany there was no change to the final October CPI revisions of 0.1% mom and 0.9% yoy. In the UK the inflation data was a shade softer than expected with the headline reading of -0.2% mom comparing to expectations of -0.1% mom. Measures for RPI and PPI were also softer than expected. The only other data was the September industrial production print for the Euro Area where there was upside relative to the consensus (+0.1% mom vs. -0.2% expected).

To the day ahead now, which for data releases includes Q3 employment data in France, the preliminary Q3 GDP print in Germany and for the Euro Area, final October CPI in France and October retail sales in the UK this morning. This afternoon we have October PPI in the US and the latest weekly initial jobless claims print. Away from the data we’ve got scheduled speeches due from the ECB’s Guindos, Lane, Villeory and Knot as well as the Fed’s Quarles, Clarida, Evans, Daly, Bullard and Kaplan. If that wasn’t enough, Powell will also appear before the House Budget Committee however that will likely be a copy and paste of yesterday’s meeting.

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)THURSDAY MORNING/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 4.63 POINTS OR 0.16%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 247.21 POINTS OR 0.93%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 178.43  POINTS OR 0.76%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .52%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 7.0210 /Oil UP TO 57.59 dollars per barrel for WTI and 62.93 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.0210 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0246 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3 C CHINA

HONG KONG

Xi warns Hong Kong students that he might use the Peoples Liberation Army to storm the campuses.  Students are using the campuses as fortresses against the Hong Kong police

(zerohedge)

 

President Xi Warns “Stopping The Storm And Restoring Order” In Hong Kong Is China’s Top Priority

Update 2: Pretty soon, all of the students working to transform their campuses into fortresses against the Hong Kong police might be facing an even more formidable foe: The People’s Liberation Army.

Foreshadowing the possibility that the Hong Kong protest movement could end with a Tiananmen Square-like mass-casualty incident – at least that’s what we gleaned from remarks made by President Xi at the BRIC leaders summit in Brasilia.

According to a post on Weibo (China’s answer to Twitter), Xi told his fellow BRIC leaders that stabilizing Hong Kong had become a serious challenge, and warned that “stopping the storm and restoring order” is a “most urgent task”.

Here’s a translation of the Weibo post, describing Xi’s remarks.

[Xi Jinping: Stopping the storm and restoring order is Hong Kong’s most urgent task at present] On November 14, local time, when President Xi Jinping attended the eleventh meeting of BRICS leaders in Brasilia, he indicated China’s current situation in Hong Kong.

The government has a solemn position. Xi Jinping pointed out that the persistent violent criminal acts in Hong Kong have seriously trampled on the rule of law and social order, seriously undermined Hong Kong’s prosperity and stability, and seriously challenged the bottom line of the “one country, two systems” principle. Stopping the storm and restoring order is Hong Kong’s most urgent task at present. We will continue to firmly support the Chief Executive to lead the Government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region in accordance with the law, firmly support the Hong Kong Police in law enforcement, and firmly support the Hong Kong Judiciary in punishing violent criminals. The determination of the Chinese government to safeguard national sovereignty, security, and development interests is unshakable. The determination to implement the “one country, two systems” principle is unwavering, and the determination to oppose any outside forces’ interference in Hong Kong affairs is unwavering. Stopping the storm and restoring order is Hong Kong’s most urgent task at present. We will continue to firmly support the Chief Executive

Is a crackdown imminent?

* * *

Update: JPM isn’t the only company or nonprofit scrambling to cancel conferences and other events scheduled to take place in Hong Kong as the violence escalates.

Tracy Alloway@tracyalloway

There is a *long* list of events getting cancelled in Hong Kong.

– HK Pride Parade
– AAPA’s 63rd Assembly
– The annual HK Tattoo Convention
– Golf tournaments, racing, firework displays, & many others…https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-11-14/everything-s-being-canceled-in-hong-kong-as-protests-roil-city  by @WillMHDavies

Everything’s Being Canceled in Hong Kong, Deepening the Tourism Slump

A major airline conference co-hosted by embattled Cathay Pacific Airways Ltd. became the latest high-profile event to be pulled in Hong Kong because of the months-long protests, which have battered…

bloomberg.com

This is literally the last thing the Hong Kong economy needs.

* * *

The situation in Hong Kong went from bad to worse on Thursday, as the unprecedented weekday protests – a violation of the tacit agreement between the pro-democracy movement and the business community not to disrupt weekday commerce -continued for a fourth day on Thursday.

After a squad of HK police officers earlier this week raided the campus of the Chinese University of Hong Kong, but purportedly found nothing, protesters accused them of unjustly harassing students, many of whom are simply trying to get through the semester. Just a day later, student protesters (the backbone of the increasingly radical movement) are openly making petrol bombs and have cordoned off their campuses, transforming them into literal staging grounds for the protest movement.

In one video circulating on Twitter, students at CUHK have established check points around the campus’s perimeter to stop any undercover cops from entering.

Hong Kong Free Press

@HongKongFP

At the Chinese University of ‘s No. 2 Bridge, an “immigration checkpoint” is set up, where people entering the campus are searched to make sure they are not undercover police or other hostile parties.

Photo: Stand News.

View image on Twitter

As Reuters described it, “hundreds of young people dressed in black set about turning several of Hong Kong’s top universities into fortresses, well stocked with improvised weapons.”

At City University of Hong Kong, Reuters said protesters were using ping pong tables, potted plants, furniture, sports equipment, and bamboo to build a network of barricades to block roads and fortify the entrances to the student residence complex. Some took garden hoses and hammered nails into them to create rope-like lines that would rip up car tires. Meanwhile, hundreds of protesters wearing gas masks and helmets accumulated piles of paving bricks and ceramic tiles to hurl at police, while others stockpiled dozens of petrol bombs to distribute to their forward positions.

With protesters wielding increasingly deadly weapons – and the HK police resorting to increasingly harmful tactics (they’ve shot at least three protesters as of Thursday evening, local time) – the situation in Hong Kong is threatening to spiral into a whole new level of violence.

One anonymous demonstrator told Reuters that the protests are just trying to even the odds between them and the police, who carry guns.

“It has never been a fair war zone,” said 23-year-old Josh, as he watched protesters practice shooting arrows at Baptist University (BU).

We have nothing, only masks and the police have guns. We’re only trying to defend ourselves.” 

Another young student protester insisted that they tried the non-violent approach, but the police escalated.

“We try every peaceful means but we fail,” said Chris, 19, a student from the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology.

“We would probably throw petrol bombs and bricks because we don’t want our friends to be injured,” he said, breaking into tears as he described police crackdowns.

“I’m willing to die for Hong Kong.”

Of course, incidents of violence by both sides have been increasing.

Down in the central business district, protesters had gathered to paralyze the city’s economy for the fourth straight day. Even more companies have asked employees to stay home, and according to Bloomberg, JP Morgan has cancelled its planned Global Technology, Media & Telecom Conference that had been set for Nov. 18 and 19 in Hong Kong. Schools remain closed, and the city remains largely immobilized by the violence.

In another disconcerting development, the Global Times, a Communist Party-controlled tabloid, tweeted Thursday that Hong Kong’s government would impose a curfew over the weekend. The tweet was up for roughly 40 mins before it was deleted, with the paper’s editor later claiming that it was a premature editorial misfire.

But was it a trial balloon? A warning? or truly just an editorial snafu?

Is Beijing finally setting the stage for the PLA to arrive and forcibly restore order?

END

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

 

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

Russia

Russia is now reducing dollar denominated funds in its national wealth fund

(zerohedge)

Russia To Reduce US Dollars In National Wealth Fund As Putin’s De-Dollarization Continues 

Russia’s de-dollarization effort is full steam ahead, in line with President Putin’s commitment to reduce the country’s vulnerability to the continuing threat of US sanctions.

Crossing the wires early Wednesday morning, Russian Deputy Finance Minister Vladimir Kolychev, was quoted by Reuters as saying the Russian sovereign wealth fund will reduce US Dollars and is considering adding Chinese yuan.

  • RUSSIAN DEPUTY FINANCE MINISTER KOLYCHEV SAYS SHARE OF US DOLLARS IN NATIONAL WEALTH FUND WILL BE REDUCED 
  • RUSSIAN DEPUTY FINANCE MINISTER KOLYCHEV SAYS INCLUSION OF OTHER FOREIGN CURRENCIES INCLUDING YUAN IS BEING CONSIDERED
  • RUSSIAN DEPUTY FINANCE MINISTER KOLYCHEV SAYS FINANCE MINISTRY PLANS TO CHANGE NATIONAL WEALTH FUND’S FX STRUCTURE IN 2020 

Kolychev said the change to the foreign exchange structure of the wealth fund would occur in 2020.

 

Last month, Russian Economy Minister Maxim Oreshkin told the Financial Times that the country would continue down the path of de-dollarization and begin trading some oil transactions in Euros and roubles.

“We have very good currency, and it’s stable. Why not use it for global transactions?” Oreshkin said in a recent interview with the FT.

 “We want (oil and gas sales) in roubles at some point,” he said.

Despite less than 5% of Russia’s $687.5 billion in annual trade being with the US, it remains that over half of that trade still relies on the dollar, according to Bloomberg figures.

US sanctions have been very selective as of recent, specifically targeting Gazprom, the country’s gas giant. Sanctions have banned any US company from supplying Gazprom with equipment.

Russia’s desire to abandon the dollar is a trend that continues to gain momentum and could be fully realized by the mid/late 2020s.

6.Global Issues

Indonesia just got hist with a powerful 7.4 magnitude earthquake and now their are tsunami alerts

(zerohedge)

Tsunami Alert After Powerful 7.4 Magnitude Earthquake Off Indonesian Coast

A massive earthquake has just struck off the coast of Indonesia, recorded at 7.4 magnitude and 62 km deep, according to the US Geological Survey.

It was registered in the Molucca Sea, about just over 130km northwest of the Indonesian island of Ternate, at 4:18pm local time on Thursday. Indonesian authorities have issued a tsunami alert.

Islanders who were over 150km from the epicenter in some cases reported feeling “very strong shaking”. Some regional reports are citing it as a 7.1 – regardless it’s anything reaching seven is very powerful.

The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC) has also issued its own tsunami threat message for all coasts within 300km of the epicenter, which could impact a multiple Indonesian islands withing the next hours.

The emergency alert message for the region reads as follows:

Months ago in July a 6.9 earthquake rocked the same area, but there were no significant reports of tsunami activity, and a prior 6.3 magnitude quake hit the island of Ternate in March.

The 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami, known as the Boxing Day Tsunami, had registered at a magnitude of between 9.1 and 9.3, sending waves as high as 30 meters crashing into surrounding countries, killing over 227,000 people in 14 countries, making it the deadliest such event in recorded history.

 

Towns and villages in the Indonesian chain of islands near the epicenter are bracing for Tsunami activity. Image via DW.com

Since then there have been persistent fears of another “big one” when earthquakes strike regional waters.

developing…

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings THURSDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.0997 DOWN .0012 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /MOSTLY RED

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 108.57 DOWN 0.233(Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2841   UP   0.0012  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/BREXIT EXTENDED TO OCT 31/2019//

USA/CAN 1.3266 UP .0014 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  THURSDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL BY 12 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1997 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 4.63 POINTS OR 0.16% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 247.11 POINTS OR 0.93%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0,52%// EUROPEAN BOURSES MOSTLY RED

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES MOSTLY RED 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 247.11 POINTS OR 0.93%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 4.63 POINTS OR .16%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP. 52% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 178.32  POINTS OR 0.76%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1468.30

silver:$17.01-

Early THURSDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 1.84% !!! DOWN 4 IN POINTS from WEDNESDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 2.32 DOWN 5  IN BASIS POINTS from WEDNESDAY night.

USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 98.38 DOWN 1 CENT(S) from  WEDNESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers THURSDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing THURSDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.38% UP 2 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.07%  DOWN 5   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.46%//UP 1 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:1,33 UP 8 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 87 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.35% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.68% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR MONDAY

Closing currency crosses for MONDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1017  UP     .0007 or 7 basis points

USA/Japan: 108.37 DOWN .425 OR YEN UP 43  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2880 UP .0027 POUND UP 27  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 4 basis points to 1.3256

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 7.0208    ON SHORE  (DOWN)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  7.0244  (YUAN DOWN)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  5.7502 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.07%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 8 IN basis points from WEDNESDAY at 1.81 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.29 DOWN 7 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 98.17 DOWN 20  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for THURSDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 44.06  0.60%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 45.86 POINTS OR .35%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 0.86 POINTS 0.01%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 9.80 POINTS or 0.11%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 4.41 POINTS OR 0.02%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 57.59 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 62.93 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE RISES:    64.09  THE CROSS LOWER BY 0.25 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE HIGHER BY 25 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.35 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  56.90//

 

 

BRENT :  62.33

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 1.82…down 7 basis pts…

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.30…down 6 basis pts..

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.1019 ( UP 9   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:108.43 DOWN .370 (YEN UP 37 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 98.17 DOWN 20 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.2879 UP 26  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 5.7493

 

 

the Russian rouble 63.97   UP 0.39 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( UP 39 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3251 UP 21 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  7.0208  (ONSHORE)/

 

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 7.0198 (OFFSHORE)

 

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.35%

 

The Dow closed DOWN 1.63 POINTS OR 0.01%

 

NASDAQ closed DOWN 3.08 POINTS OR 0.04%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  13.53 CLOSED DOWN .44

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 1.909%//libor dropping like a stone

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

 

Bond Yields Tumble As Stocks Reach Longest (Best) Bull Market Ever

This is now the longest bull market in history… and the best ever…

Source: The Leuthold Group

“The other thing that’s helped the bull is how poorly the rest of the world’s done. It sort of kept everyone here. If they are going to buy anything at all, they’d buy U.S.” Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at The Leuthold Group, told CNBC.

So why is the American consumer losing faith?

Source: Bloomberg

FEDSPEAK-FEST today – all singing from same songsheet – “We’re on hold unless world collapses”

0900ET Clarida NEUTRAL – US Economy “at or close to” Fed’s goals

0910ET Evans – Cryptocurrency could cause “the business models of commercial banks to come under significant pressure”

1000ET Powell NEUTRAL – US is “star economy”, repeats baseline economic outlook remains favorable, policy is appropriate

1145ET Daly NEUTRAL – Monetary policy in good place given healthy momentum in the economy and consumer spending

1200ET Williams NEUTRAL – US economy and policy in good place, backs keeping rates steady

1220ET Bullard DOVISH – Positive yield curve is bullish for 2020, economy still faces downside risk

1300ET Kaplan NEUTRAL – US consumer in good shape, labor market tight, policy appropriate

Additional market movers were

1100ET Pelosi – USMCA by year-end, sent CAD higher, USD lower

1400ET U.S., CHINA STRUGGLE TO CLOSE PHASE-1 DEAL, FT SAYS

1530ET USTR Sources confirm deputy-level trade talks

All of which left US stocks flat-ish on the day…

Europe was also flat-ish again today…

Source: Bloomberg

And China was flat-ish on the day (down on week) despite terrible macro data overnight…

Source: Bloomberg

US stocks mixed on the week with Dow leading and Trannies lagging (S&P and Nasdaq levitated green)…

Source: Bloomberg

The market’s expectations for a trade deal are fading (albeit modestly)…

Source: Bloomberg

Momo is up 5 days in a row…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields tumbled once again, completely decoupling from stocks…

Source: Bloomberg

Rates were lower by 5-7bps across the entire curve…

Source: Bloomberg

The plunge in 30Y yields erases all last week’s Abbvie-rate-lock-driven spike…

Source: Bloomberg

The Dollar dumped today

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos all faded today, all in the red for the week…

Source: Bloomberg

Commodities continued to diverge with copper/crude fading (weak China data) and PMs bid (weak dollar)…

Source: Bloomberg

WTI once again reverted lower from the upper rail of its recent range…

Gold pushed back up to $1475, erasing the losses from the early part of the week…

 

Finally, in case you wondered… it’s different this time.

h/t BMO Nesbitt Burns

And then there’s this – impeachment odds fell after yesterday’s hearings…

Source: Bloomberg

And if you don’t think the market cares about Elizabeth Warren, think again…

Source: Bloomberg

end

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

Stocks, Bond Yields, & The Dollar Are All Tumbling

While it is unclear exactly what the immediate catalysts for this shift is, it began around the European close and as Speaker Pelosi discussed USMCA. Perhaps Powell’s confirmation that policy is appropriate, not offering any dovish branch of hope was what trigger’d investors…

Having traded in a very narrow range overnight, Dow fut8ures are breaking down…

The dollar is suddenly being dumped (as Loonie strengthens)…

Source: Bloomberg

And Treasury yields are tumbling, erasing last week’s spike (rate-locks)…

Source: Bloomberg

We are going to need a “trade deal is close” tweet stat!!!

end
Then late afternoon:

Stocks Slump On Reports That US/China “Struggling” To Finalise Phase One Deal

Echoing the same reports from yesterday that sparked a brief panic, The FT reports that Trump administration officials concede original target date may slip but deny reports of setback.

According to people close to the talks, Trump administration officials are frustrated that China has not offered enough concessions to justify a reduction in US tariffs on Chinese goods — a longstanding demand from Beijing that has become further entrenched in recent weeks.

One person with knowledge of the discussions said that China was “absolutely” delaying the truce with its approach, jeopardising the chances that a final agreement could be reached in the coming days, the original target set by both sides.

“There’s a lot of jockeying going on — it’s a stand-off, in part,” said another person briefed on the talks.

And stocks tumbled…

Will they BTFD again?

The market’s view on success has faded…

Source: Bloomberg

Bonds ain’t buying it…

Source: Bloomberg

We’re gonna need a Trump/Kudlow statement to save the day stat!

end

ii)Market data/USA

The Consumer comfort index just crashed the greatest since Lehman. Many are expecting a crash

(zerohedge)

American Consumer Comfort Crashes Most ‘Since Lehman’

Despite stocks soaring to record highs, The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort index fell last week to 58.0 from 59.1 a week earlier, and has now plunged 5.4 points in three weeks, the biggest such drop since 2008

Source: Bloomberg

All three sub-indices – state of the economy, personal financial outlook, and buying climate – dropped in the last week:

  • State of the Economy index worsens to 58.6 from 60.3
  • Personal Finance index fell to 61.9 from 63.3
  • Buying Climate index fell to 53.6 from 53.9

…as the headline completely decoupled from stocks…

Source: Bloomberg

That is the lowest level of consumer confidence since January, despite an incessant surge in stocks this year. Still, we doubt that will stop the president celebrating…

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Hit New Stock Market record again yesterday, the 20th time this year, with GREAT potential for the future. USA is where the action is. Companies and jobs are coming back like never before!

Notably, both Democrats and Republicans have been losing faith recently…

Source: Bloomberg

end

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

My goodness, WeWork’s quarterly loss exploded to a monstrous $1.3 billion.

(zerohedge)

WeWork’s Quarterly Loss Exploded To $1.3 Billion Ahead Of Failed IPO

WeWork went on a spending spree in the days ahead of its now failed IPO.

The recently insolvent company which until a few months ago had a valuation of $47 billion before it had to be bailed out by SoftBank saw its losses more than double in the third quarter, soaring to $1.25 billion, not much below its loss for the entire 2018. The results, which were reported in a presentation for WeWork creditors – the company has to file financials to the group of creditors who hold its “public” debt – seen by Bloomberg and the Financial Times, revealed why the cash incinerating office sublettor careened towards a cash crunch when its IPO plans and a linked debt financing collapsed in September.

In a furious money-burning attempt to impress investors with its market share, WeWork opened almost 100 offices in the third quarter, bringing its total to 625, and helping lift WeWork’s net revenues in the period by 94% from 4482 million a year earlier to $934 million. That was the good news: the bad news is that WeWork affirmed that it continues to lose more than two dollars for every dollar the group generated in sales in the period.

In its unprecedented spending spree to spend all of its IPO proceeds before it even went public, the company also said it added 115,000 desks in the third quarter, taking its total to 719,000. However, the reason why such hollow growth would end up resulting in an even greater loss is that WeWork reported 609,000 memberships at the end of Q3, meaning its overall occupancy rates slid as it raced to open new locations to 79 per cent at the end of the third quarter from 82 per cent at the end of June.

 

WeWork’s bizarre growth at any price would turn out to be its former messiah CEO’s last decision: Adam Neumann stepped down as chief executive in September as the IPO fell apart as investors balked at the thought of making the megalomaniac the world’s first immaculately coiffed, immortal trillionaire.

After the IPO fell apart, WeWork’s biggest shareholder, SoftBank, pumped another $1.5 billion into the company in October to prevent the company from running out of cash in November, and stabilize its finances while taking majority control of the company, installing the former boss of its US telecom unit Sprint, Marcelo Claure, as executive chairman. The Japanese telecom-turned-venture capitalist group also arranged a new $5bn loan for WeWork and has agreed to buy $3bn of the company’s shares from investors and employees including Mr Neumann in the coming weeks. Because who more deserves a $1+ billion golden parachute than Neumann.

Since his arrival, Claure embarked on a cost-cutting drive and is in the process of firing 4,000 of the company’s roughly 14,000 employees, with large cuts in the US expected to begin next week, according to multiple people briefed on the plans. It remains unclear how the company plans on growing its revenue if it no longer has access to unlimited funds; for the answer check in next quarter when we expect both WeWork’s revenue and net income to take another sharp leg lower.

WeWork is also selling several of the companies it acquired in recent years and has drastically slowed its pace of new lease signings.

The company is seeking a new CEO, and T-Mobile’s John Legere is among the candidates.

But for now, none of this post-failed IPO activity is reassuring bond investors at all…

Source: Bloomberg

END

Chris Powell announces that the Fed will not disclose which banks are receiving repo cash.  After two years, they can release this information

(Chris Powell)

Fed Will Not Disclose Which Banks Are Receiving Repo Cash For At Least Two Years

Submitted by Chris Powell of GATA

If you want to know which investment houses have been getting the infamous “repo” loans from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in recent weeks, as GATA has wanted to know, you’ll have to wait two years, according to a letter received from the bank today in response GATA’s request for the information.

The delay, the New York Fed’s letter says, is authorized by the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act.

 

Perhaps more interestingly, the New York Fed’s letter, signed by Corporate Secretary Shawn Elizabeth Phillips, contends that the bank is exempt from the federal Freedom of Information Act but tries to comply with its spirit.

Such a claim of exemption was not made by the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors during GATA’s FOIA lawsuit against it in 2011, in which GATA sought access to the board’s gold-related documents. GATA technically won the case when U.S. District Judge Ellen Segal Huvelle ruled that one such document was illegally withheld and ordered the board to disclose it to GATA and pay the organization court costs of $2,670:

What kind of system of government is it when every week an entity created by ordinary legislation can create enormous amounts of a nation’s currency and disburse it to unidentified parties without any oversight by the people’s elected representatives, news organizations, and ordinary citizens? It sure doesn’t sound like “the land of the free and the home of the brave.”

The New York Fed’s response to GATA can be read below (pdf link):

END
Wolf Richter comments that the subprime auto loan mess is now finally arrived as he notes a serious increase in delinquencies
(Wolf Richter/WolfStreet)

The “Oh, $hit!” Moment For Subprime Auto Loans Arrives; Serious Delinquencies Blow Out

Authored by Wolf Richter via WolfStreet.com,

But it’s even worse than it looks. And this time, there is no jobs crisis. This time, it’s the result of greed by subprime lenders.

Serious auto-loan delinquencies – auto loans that are 90 days or more past due – in the third quarter of 2019, after an amazing trajectory, reached a historic high of $62 billion, according to data from the New York Fed today:

This $62 billion of seriously delinquent loan balances are what auto lenders, particularly those that specialize in subprime auto loans, such as Santander Consumer USA, Credit Acceptance Corporation, and many smaller specialized lenders are now trying to deal with. If they cannot cure the delinquency, they’re hiring specialized companies that repossess the vehicles to be sold at auction. The difference between the loan balance and the proceeds from the auction, plus the costs involved, are what a lender loses on the deal.

The repo business, however, is booming.

But delinquencies are a flow: As current delinquencies are hitting the lenders’ balance sheet and income statement, the flow continues and more loans are becoming delinquent. And lenders are still making new loans to risky customers and a portion of those loans will become delinquent too. And now the flow of delinquent loans is increasing – and this isn’t going to stop anytime soon: These loans are out there and new one are being added to them, and a portion of them will be defaulting.

Total outstanding balances of auto loans and leases in Q3, according to the New York Fed’s measure (higher and more inclusive than the Federal Reserve Board of Governors’ consumer credit data) rose to $1.32 trillion:

Serious delinquencies jumped to 4.71% of these $1.32 trillion in total loans and leases outstanding, the highest since Q4 2011, when the auto industry was emerging from collapse. And on the way up, this 4.71% is just above the level of Q3 2009, months after GM and Chrysler had filed for bankruptcy and a year after Lehman had filed for bankruptcy, when the US was confronting the worst unemployment crisis since the Great Depression, and when people were defaulting on their auto loans because they’d lost their jobs:

The current rate of 4.71% is just 56 basis points below the peak of Q4 2010. But these are the good times – and not an employment crisis, when millions of people who lost their jobs cannot make their loan payments.

So what is going to happen to auto loan delinquencies when employment experiences a pullback, even a fairly modest one, such as when one million people lose their jobs? That was a rhetorical question. We know what will happen: The serious delinquency rate will set a record for the annals of history.

But it’s even worse than it looks.

“Prime” auto loans have minuscule default rates. The total of $1.3 billion in auto loans and leases outstanding includes leases to consumers who could pay cash for the vehicles but lease them for various reasons. According to a different measure by Fitch, “prime” auto loans currently have a 60-day delinquency rate hovering at a historically low 0.28%.

Of the $1.32 trillion in auto loans outstanding, about 22% are subprime, so about $300 billion. Of them roughly, $62 billion are seriously delinquent – or around 20% of all subprime loans outstanding. One in five!

But this subprime delinquency fiasco is not a sign of an employment crisis and a brutal recession as these types of numbers indicated during the Financial Crisis. Employment is still growing, and unemployment claims are near historic lows. Nevertheless, subprime auto loans are defaulting at astounding rates.

What’s going on? Greed – not an economic crisis.

Subprime lending is risky but immensely profitable. The thing is: Customers who have a subprime credit rating are painfully aware of it. They have been turned down for low-interest rate loans. They have been turned away. And now they walk on a car lot where their credit rating suddenly is no problem. And they become sitting ducks. The industry knows this.

They don’t even negotiate. They just accept the price, the payment, the interest rate, and the trade-in value. They’re ecstatic to get a car. And they end up with a huge payment at a high interest rate, and given how strung out they already are to be subprime rated in the first place, that loan is doomed.

That’s the irony: a low-interest-rate loan on an affordable car, sold at an average profit, would give the customer a much higher chance of keeping the loan current than a loan with a 15% interest rate on a car the customer cannot afford, including a big-fat dealer profit of the type that can only be obtained from a sitting duck. Those loans, born out of greed, and are doomed.

This is what we’re seeing here. These loans were born out of greed over the past few years, as the industry was getting very aggressive in pursuing subprime rated customers because they’re sitting ducks and so immensely profitable. What we’re seeing now are the consequences of that greed.

*  *  *

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One Bank (Bank of America) Finally Admits The Fed’s “NOT QE” Is Indeed QE… And Could Lead To Financial Collapse

(Bank of America/zerohedge)

After a month of constant verbal gymnastics (and diarrhea from financial pundit sycophants who can’t think creatively or originally and merely parrot their echo chamber) by the Fed that the recent launch of $60 billion in T-Bill purchases is anything but QE (whatever you do, don’t call it “QE 4”, just call it “NOT QE” please), one bank finally had the guts to say what was so obvious to anyone who isn’t challenged by simple logic: the Fed’s “NOT QE”, is really “QE.”

In a note warning that the Fed’s latest purchase program – whether one calls it QE or NOT QE – will have big, potentially catastrophic costs, Bank of America’s Ralph Axel writes that in the aftermath of the Fed’s new program of T-bill purchases to increase the amount of reserves in the banking system, the Fed made an effort to repeatedly inform markets that this is not a new round of quantitative easing, and yet as the BofA strategist notes, “in important ways it is similar.”

But is it QE? Well, in his October FOMC press conference, Fed Chair Powell said “our T-bill purchases should not be confused with the large-scale asset purchase program that we deployed after the financial crisis. In contrast, purchasing Tbills should not materially affect demand and supply for longer-term securities or financial conditions more broadly.” Chair Powell gives a succinct definition of QE as having two basic elements: (1) supporting longer-term security prices, and (2) easing financial conditions.

Here’s the problem: as we have said since the beginning, and as Bank of America now writes, “the Fed’s T-bill purchase program delivers on both fronts and is therefore similar to QE,” with one exception – the element of forward guidance.

The upshot to this attempt to mislead the market what it is doing according to Bank of America, is that:

  1. the Fed is continuing to “ease” even though rate cuts are now on hold, which is supportive of growth, higher interest rates and higher equities, and
  2. the Fed is loosening financial conditions by increasing the availability of, and lowering the cost of, leveragewhich broadly supports asset prices potentially at the cost of increasing systemic financial risk.

Putting the Fed’s “NOT QE” in context: so far the Fed has purchased $66bn of Tbills and may purchase $60bn per month through June 2020, which could result in an increase in the Fed’s Treasury holdings by about $500bn.

While we have repeatedly written in the past why we think the Fed’s latest asset purchase program is, in fact, QE, below we present BofA’s argument why we are right.

As Axel writes, there are two basic mechanisms how T-Bill purchases support longer-term security prices: the increase in cash assets and deposit liabilities on bank balance sheets, and the reduction of funding risk for leveraged buyers of Treasuries, MBS and other financed securities.

For those who have forgotten how the “asset reflation” pathway works, recall that the Fed either buys T-bills from investors such as money market funds, or from primary dealers who do not hold T-bills, but can buy them at auction to sell to the Fed. Buying from investors converts their T-bill holdings into new Fed cash, which in turn winds up on deposit in the banking system. If instead a primary dealer buys a Tbill at auction and sells it to the Fed, the transaction results in new Fed cash placed in the Treasury’s cash account, while the dealer balance sheet is unchanged, and the banking system balance is also unchanged. But once the Treasury spends the new Fed cash on a social security payment or a medical insurance bill, etc, the cash enters the banking system and increases the aggregate balance sheet of banks.

Either way, bank balance sheets expand and banks will need to (1) hold more HQLA (high quality liquid assets) against those deposits, and (2) put some of their new cash to work in longer-term securities such as mortgage-backed securities (or even stocks)? Although banks can be flexible in how they deploy the new cash, it is likely that a portion of it will go into bonds similar to what banks already hold (currently $1.8TN in MBS securities and $770bn in Treasuries, according to Fed H.8 data). And once bonds are bid, other investors have no choice but to reach for even riskier securities, such as stocks.

Meanwhile, while the Fed does not directly lend to leveraged investors, some of the increased cash on hand at banks will likely go into repo markets to fund overnight loans to potential buyers of long-term securities in Treasuries and mortgages. This, as BofA explains, is how the increase in reserves is designed to calm repo markets. The amount of bank lending in repo has increased by about 50% since the end of 2017.

Focusing just on the increasingly more important repo channel, which is one ingredient within overall financial conditions, is becoming more important as reliance on overnight funding and leverage continues to rise. This is because, as BofA shows in its “chart of the day”, while banks and security brokers have greatly reduced reliance on overnight funding as a result of Dodd-Frank, the rest of the market has approximately doubled its reliance on overnight funding since the 2008 crisis.

And while one can argue that the proper metric is repo funding as a percentage of Treasuries and MBS outstanding, the bigger picture is that if repo markets stopped functioning today, the amount of Treasury and MBS securities held outside of banks-dealers requiring liquidation (for lack of funding) would be about twice as large as 2008, and as BofA warns, “with today’s surprisingly low levels of liquidity in the “liquid markets” the impact could be massive.” In this context, BofA views the Fed’s purchase program as integral to the promotion of easy financial conditions and supportive of asset prices, which as Chair Powell himself admitted, is the second key criterion for QE.

At this point it is worth considering a critical, if tangential question: Why is the Fed so concerned about not signaling QE, and why are so many Fed fanboys desperate to parrot whatever Powell is saying day after day?

Simply said, there are several reasons why the Fed is making a great effort to let the world know that its security purchases are not QE and are not reflective of any change in monetary policy stance. The first is the obvious issue of signaling concern around the economic outlook which would run counter to its cautiously optimistic and often upbeat assessment. After all, why do QE if the economy has “never been stronger”, and the Fed was hiking rates as recently as a December. Included here are the concerns about running out of ammunition at the zero lower bound of rate policy. With negative rates increasingly off the table – until push comes to shove of course and the Fed is forced to cut below zero – QE is meant to be reserved as dry powder for a rainy day when conventional tools are exhausted (even if QE is in fact taking place this very instant).

A less obvious concern for the Fed is connecting monetary policy to bank demand for Fed liabilities, which as BofA admits, “is not something that fits neatly within its dual mandate”: last January, the Fed made a “momentous decision” to run an “abundant reserve regime” also known as a floor system, where the central bank decided not to return to its pre-crisis days of zero excess reserves. As such, the central bank now views the proper level of excess reserves (a Fed balance sheet liability) not in terms of its dual mandate for inflation and employment, but in terms of how banks prefer to meet regulatory liquidity requirements and how this preference impacts repo and other markets.

In short, the Fed’s dual mandate has been replaced by a single mandate of promoting financial stability (or as some may say, boosting JPMorgan’s stock price) similar to that of the ECB.

Here BofA adds ominously that “by deciding to dynamically assess bank demand for reserves and reduce the risk of air pockets in repo markets, we believe the Fed has entered unchartered territory of monetary policy that may stretch beyond its dual mandate.” And the punchline: “By running balance-sheet policy to ensure overnight funding markets remain flush, the Fed is arguably circumventing the most important brake on excess leverage: the price.

So if NOT QE is in fact, QE, and if the Fed is once again in the price manipulation business, what then?

According to BofA’s Axel, the most worrying part of the Fed’s current asset purchase program is the realization that an ongoing bank footprint in repo markets is required to maintain control of policy rates in the new floor system, or as we put it less politely, banks are now able to hijack the financial system by indicating that they have an overnight funding problem (as JPMorgan very clearly did) and force the Fed to do their (really JPMorgan’s) bidding.

While it is likely that beyond year-end, the additional tends of billions in reserves will have the required soothing effect, what is less clear is that the Fed can make sure the bank repo lending footprint is resilient to dips in the bank credit cycle.

And this is where BofA’s warning hits a crescendo, because while repo is fully collateralized and therefore contains negligible counterparty credit risk, “there may be a situation in which banks want to deleverage quickly, for example during a money run or a liquidation in some market caused by a sudden reassessment of value as in 2008.”

Got that? Going forward please refer to any market crash as a “sudden reassessment of value”, something which has become impossible in a world where “value” is whatever the Fed says it is… Well, the Fed or a bunch of self-serving venture capitalists, who pushed the “value” of WeWork to $47 billion just weeks before it was revealed that the company is effectively insolvent the punch bowl of endless free money is taken away.

Going back to repo, in such a crashy, pardon, “sudden value reassessmenty” environment, it seems implausible to expect banks to maintain their level of repo lending. And if repo lines were drawn down far enough and for long enough in time, it could lead to deleveraging at institutions that were otherwise healthy, precisely what happened during the financial crisis when the lock up of Lehman’s various overnight funding lines instantly cascaded across the financial system, resulting in an overnight paralysis of the US shadow banking system, and resulting in the near- bankruptcy of the largest US bank. 

Therefore, to Bank of America, this new monetary policy regime actually increases systemic financial risk by making repo markets more vulnerable to bank cycles. This, as the bank ominously warns, “increases interconnectedness, which is something regulators widely recognize as making asset bubbles and entity failures more dangerous.

Think of this as Europe’s infamous doom loop, only in the US and instead of sovereign debt, it uses repo as a risk intermediary to keep the system functioning.

In short, not only is the Fed pursuing QE without calling it QE, but by doing so it is implicitly raising the odds – more so than if it simply did another QE and rebuilt reserves to abour $4.5 trillion or more by purchasing coupon bonds – of another market crash.

It is, however, BofA’s conclusion that we found most alarming: as Axel writes, in his parting words:

“some have argued, including former NY Fed President William Dudley, that the last financial crisis was in part fueled by the Fed’s reluctance to tighten financial conditions as housing markets showed early signs of froth. It seems the Fed’s abundant-reserve regime may carry a new set of risks by supporting increased interconnectedness and overly easy policy (expanding balance sheet during an economic expansion) to maintain funding conditions that may short-circuit the market’s ability to accurately price the supply and demand for leverage as asset prices rise.

In retrospect, we understand why the Fed is terrified of calling the latest QE by its true name: one mistake, and not only will it be the last QE the Fed will ever do, but it could also finally finish what the 2008 financial crisis failed to achieve, only this time the Fed will be powerless to do anything but sit and watch.

end

Jim Grant: The Fed Has Done over $3 Trillion of Repos in Just Two Months

Submitted by Taps Coogan on the 14th of the November 2019 to The Sounding Line.

Enjoy The Sounding Line? Click here to subscribe.

Grant’s Interest Rate Observer founder and editor, Jim Grant, recently spoke with CNBC’s Rick Santelli about the radical transformation in monetary policy that has occurred in the last two months, which very few people seem to fully appreciate. Namely, the Fed has embarked on one of the most aggressive monetary policy re-accommodation regimes in history. Point-in-fact, Mr. Grant notes that the Fed has done upwards of $3 trillion in repos in barely two months. While it is important to note that most repos expire after just one day and must be redone everyday to maintain the same level of liquidity, $3 trillion, nonetheless, represents a historic liquidity injection. As we noted here, the Fed’s balance sheet is growing at the fastest pace since the depths of the Financial Crisis.

Jim Grant:

“As of now, Rick, from the start of the operation in the middle of September to just about yesterday, we have, on a gross basis mind you – just adding up all the dollars spent day-by-day, we have spent upwards of $3 trillion (on repos), which is a lot of money, even when you say it fast.”

Rick Santelli:

“…Is this a defacto nationalization of the repo market that was once the venue of all the different large institutions and primary dealers that seem to have just exited the space?”

Jim Grant:

“The federal funds market in which banks would transact on the basis of price signals to buy and sell buy and sell bank reserves… is kind of a ghost town and the Fed Fund rate is for show only. What has superseded it is the repo rate which is the collateralized rate. You charge that for lending against Mr. Mnuchin’s stock of bonds and bills (treasury debt). The repo market is completely dominated by the Federal Reserve. It is the property of the US federal government and we are dealing with administered rates with huge amounts of money, and I think it is worrisome.”  

Rick Santelli:

“…This all happened in a very nonchalant way. There didn’t seem to be any protest, any big stories. Granted, even I thought ‘Well, it is just going to provide some liquidity.’ But now it is most likely going to be a permanent operation…  I’ve been around a while, like you have. What happened to using the discount window? …It seems as though we’ve moved from lender of last resort, helping banks in the form of our central bank, to the market maker of last resort, the market lender of last resort. They’re the last resort for everything.”

Jim Grant:

“What we have done is to swap price discovery… for the administration of prices and interest rates, especially of money market interest rates. What Chairman Powell will not say is that in the last three months the Fed’s earning assets, its bonds and bills, have grown at an annualized rate of 23%. Way back in September, before the eruption in the repo market, that was shrinking at a rate of about 9%. So very quietly the Fed has done an about-face and whatever he says with respect to the funds rate, the Fed is very very accomodative and the rate of injection on high powered money is very fast…”

Rick Santelli:

“….We went from open outcry to just crying in open that the markets aren’t going to ever be like they were and market participants in aggregate, and all of their decision making, now boils down to a group of several men.”

I, for one, couldn’t agree more with the points made above. For a decade we have been casting aside foundational elements of our free-market system in order to postpone a slowdown in growth, the likes of which the world has witnessed every five to ten years since the dawn of human civilization. It’s a disgrace.

There is more to the discussion, so enjoy the full video above.

end

seems that the Fed is again worried about year end liquidity as it announces a new 42 day repo expiring in 2020

(zerohedge)

Fed Braces For Year-End Repo Turmoil: Announces $55 Billion In Term Repos Maturing In 2020 (To Start)

Just moments after we reported that according to Bank of America, the US financial system’s reliance on repos could “short-circuit the market’s ability to accurately price the supply and demand for leverage as asset prices rise”, and implicitly, facilitate the next financial crisis because  “the Fed has entered unchartered territory of monetary policy that may stretch beyond its dual mandate”, the Fed confirmed just how reliant both it, and the entire US financial system is on the repo market, when it released its latest term repo schedule, one which for the first time included 28 and 42-day repos which would mature into the new, 2020 year, yet which amount to just a total of $55 billion collectively, an amount which we fear will be far too little to meet year-end liquidity demands, and represents just the first shot in the Fed’s scramble to flood the system with year-end liquidity. Meanwhile, the NY Fed is maintaining its $120BN in overnight repos indefinitely.

This is what the Fed released today at 3pm:

The Open Market Trading Desk (the Desk) at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York has released the schedule of repurchase agreement (repo) operations for the monthly period from November 15, 2019 through December 12, 2019.  In accordance with the most recent FOMC directive, the Desk will continue to offer at least $35 billion in two-week term repo operations twice per week and at least $120 billion in daily overnight repo operations.

The Desk will also offer three additional term repo operations during this calendar period with longer maturities that extend past the end of 2019.  These additional operations are intended to help offset the reserve effects of sharp increases in non-reserve liabilities later this year and ensure that the supply of reserves remains ample during the period through year end. They are also intended to mitigate the risk of money market pressures that could adversely affect policy implementation. The Desk will adjust the timing and amounts of repo operations as necessary to maintain an ample supply of reserve balances over time and based on money market conditions, consistent with the directive from the FOMC.

The calendar of specific term repos is below:

Indicatively, this is just how “temporary” the Fed’s overnight repos…

… and term repos have become:

Appropriately, the Fed admitted that it is starting to freak out about year-end liquidity just minutes after we published a scathing critique of the Fed’s “repo regime” by BofA, which among other things said the following:

Repo matters more than ever

The repo channel, which is one ingredient within overall financial conditions, is becoming more important as reliance on overnight funding and leverage continues to rise. While banks and security brokers have greatly reduced reliance on overnight funding as a result of Dodd-Frank, the rest of the market has approximately doubled its reliance on overnight funding since the 2008 crisis.

While one can argue that the proper metric is repo funding as a percentage of Treasuries and MBS outstanding, we think that such a ratio misses the bigger picture. The bigger picture is that if repo markets stopped functioning today, the amount of Treasury and MBS securities held outside of banks-dealers requiring liquidation (for lack of funding) would be about twice as large as 2008, and with today’s surprisingly low levels of liquidity in the “liquid markets” the impact could be massive. In this context, we view the Fed’s purchase program as integral to the promotion of easy financial conditions and supportive of asset prices, which is Chair Powell’s second criterion for QE.

Why is the above a problem? Because as BofA concluded, “Everything has a cost”

In our view, the most worrying part of the Fed’s current asset purchase program is the realization that an ongoing bank footprint in repo markets is required to maintain control of policy rates in the new floor system. While we are confident that beyond year-end, the additional reserves will have the required soothing effect, what is less clear is that the Fed can make sure the bank repo lending footprint is resilient to dips in the bank credit cycle. While repo is fully collateralized and therefore contains negligible counterparty credit risk, there may be a situation in which banks want to deleverage quickly, for example during a money run or a liquidation in some market caused by a sudden reassessment of value as in 2008. In this environment, it seems implausible to expect banks to maintain their level of repo lending. If repo lines were drawn down far enough and for long enough in time, it could lead to deleveraging at institutions that were otherwise healthy. The new monetary policy regime therefore may increase systemic financial risk by making repo markets more vulnerable to bank cycles. This increases interconnectedness, which is something regulators widely recognize as making asset bubbles and entity failures more dangerous.

Some have argued, including former NY Fed President William Dudley, that the last financial crisis was in part fueled by the Fed’s reluctance to tighten financial conditions as housing markets showed early signs of froth. It seems the Fed’s abundant-reserve regime may carry a new set of risks by supporting increased interconnectedness and overly easy policy (expanding balance sheet during an economic expansion) to maintain funding conditions that may short-circuit the market’s ability to accurately price the supply and demand for leverage as asset prices rise.

When the time comes for the Fed to unwind its “temporary” repos, we hope it will be more successful then when it tried to “renormalize” monetary policy, which lasted for a few months and then the Fed admitted defeat in a dramatic U-turn, and is now cutting rates instead.

iv) Swamp commentaries)

We now have the bank records showing 83 ,000 dollars per month going to the Hunter Biden’s account  A total of 3.1 million dollars eventually went into this account

Here are the details

(zerohedge)

Leaked Bank Records Confirm Burisma-Biden Payments To Morgan Stanley Account

Documents allegedly leaked by the Ukrainian General Prosecutor’s office to CD Media have shed light on payments from Burisma Holdings to Rosemont Seneca Bohai LLC, a corporation controlled by Hunter Biden partner (and fellow former Burisma board member) Devon Archer.

 

Devon Archer (far left) is pictured with Joe and Hunter Biden. (Screenshot from Twitter)

Archer was Yale roommates with John Kerry’s stepson Chris Heinz – the two of whom opened investment firm Rosemont Capital with Joe Biden’s son, Hunter. Rosemont Capital is the parent company of Rosemont Seneca Partners, LLC – the entity which receive the Burisma payments and in turn aid Biden.

The newly leaked records show 45 payments between November 2014 and November 2015 totaling $3.5 million, mostly in increments of $83,333.33. The payments correspond to Morgan Stanley bank records the New York Times reported on earlier this year. The records were submitted as evidence in a case against Archer who was convicted in a scheme to defraud pension funds and an Indian tribe of tens of millions of dollars. Archer’s conviction was overturned in November by a judge who felt that he may not have willingly participated in the scheme.

Michael Coudrey

@MichaelCoudrey

Rosemont Seneca Bohai LLC is owned and operated by Devon Archer, the Kerry Family including John Kerry Senior, John Kerry Junior, Heinz Jr and Hunter Biden.

All of whom are also listed as partners in the Rosemont Seneca Fund and other affiliated Rosemont Seneca companies.

Michael Coudrey

@MichaelCoudrey

Leaked transaction and bank records indicate an influx of large payments from Ukrainian energy company Burisma Holdings Limited to Rosemont Seneca Bohai LLC, in what appears to be monthly payments of $83,333.33.

View image on TwitterView image on TwitterView image on TwitterView image on Twitter

What’s more, there are several payments from “Wirelogic Technology AS” and “Digitex Organization LLP” in the amounts of 366,015 EUR and $1,964,375 US based on credit agreements – while $1,150,000 went to Devon Archer and Hunter Biden.

 

Via CD Media

Looking through the Rosemont Seneca Bohai bank records reveals that it was essentially a slush fund used for payments to Biden, expensive toys, an investment in the ill-fated Indian tribe scheme, and other miscellaneous expenses.

 

$104,000 to Mecum Auction Inc.

 

$142,000 to Schneider Nelson Motor, $30,000 to Hampton Watercraft & Marine

 

$1,580 in toll road violations

Indian Scheme

On September 25, 2014 a wire of $15,000,000 was received from Florida attorney, Clifford A Wolff. It was subsequently used to buy a $15 million bond from Wakpamni Town Center – the scheme linked to Archer’s overturned conviction.

 

September 2014 statement

 

October 2014 statement

 

November 2014 statement

It is unclear why Rosemont Seneca had so much skin in the game. Via the Wall Street Journal:

Hunter Biden’s work in Ukraine and China has attracted criticism from President Trump and other Republicans. In an unrelated fraud case from last year, his name was invoked as a selling point in transactions that turned out to be fraudulent, although Mr. Biden‘s lawyer said his client knew nothing about it.

 

The case involved a $60 million securities fraud based on bonds issued by an economic-development company affiliated with a Native American tribe in South Dakota, according to prosecutors’ statements in a federal trial in Manhattan last year.

The proceeds were supposed to be used to build a distribution center and other projects, but were instead diverted for the personal use of Jason Galanis, prosecutors said prosecutors said, describing him as the scheme’s ringleader. Mr. Galanis and others also sought to use the bonds to advance a strategy that involved buying up financial firms to merge them into a larger one called Burnham Financial Group, in a deal called a “roll up,” according to prosecutors.

You can flip through the rest of Rosemont’s bank statements below:

SEE ZERO HEDGE

 

end

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

At the public impeachment hearings yesterday, Schiff asserted that he still does not know the whistleblower’s name but he will sanction GOP Reps that mention his name.  You can’t make this up!

Schiff lied, again.  He posted the WB’s name as part of a transcript and quickly withdrew the document and redacted the WB’s name.

Senate Judiciary Chair @LindseyGrahamSC: Did the whistleblower help arrange phone call between former VP Biden and the former President of Ukraine (Poroshenko) complaining about prosecutors behavior toward Burisma, the Ukrainian gas company where Hunter Biden was a member of the board?

     Did the whistleblower participate in an effort by VP Biden to call the President of the Ukraine (Poroshenko) after Burisma owners’ houses were raided by Ukrainian authorities?

    Did the whistleblower actively participate in an effort to back Ukrainian officials off a Burisma investigation after U.S. State Department received complaints from Burisma’s American board members?

    Did VP Biden talk to Ukrainian President Poroshenko about prosecutors’ efforts to investigate Burisma, the gas company where Hunter Biden served as a board member?

Novice lawyers are instructed to never ask a question in court that you don’t already know the answer.  If Graham is publicly asking questions about the WB facilitating Biden’s role in thwarting the investigation into Burisma, Lindsey already knows the answer – and he’s warning Schiff and Dems!

@JasonMillerinDC: What I can tell you today is what I heard from…people.” [Hearsay] – [Bill] Taylor [Bushie]… making clear he has no first-hand information to share…

GO @RepAndyBiggsAZ: Bill Taylor testifies about information that he heard from others. That is hearsay. That type of testimony is excluded in a law court because it is considered inherently unreliable.

GOP Rep. @SteveScalise: Meet the “star witnesses” Adam Schiff called today: Neither have any firsthand knowledge; Neither spoke to @realDonaldTrump; One got his info from The New York Times.  This hearing is a sham. Read the transcript—an actual firsthand account. It shows nothing impeachable!

GOP @RepLeeZeldin: Ambassador Taylor is telling Congress that Tim Morrison told him that Ambassador Sondland told Morrison that the President told Sondland…

Dem Rep Mike Quigley from Chicago: “Hearsay can be much better evidence than direct… and it’s certainly valid in this instance.” [You can’t make this up!!!]

https://twitter.com/RealSaavedra/status/1194710194166497281

@seanmdav: As best I can tell by Bill Taylor’s [NeverTrumper] testimony thus far, Trump’s real crime is refusing to delegate the entirety of U.S. foreign policy decision-making to a coterie of unelected career bureaucrats who think the Constitution gives them all power and authority to run the country.

@RoscoeBDavis1: Taylor is testifying he strongly disagreed with President Trump’s views and approach involving Ukraine, and that he is appalled & upset he was sometimes left out of the loop…

Kent admitted: “There are and always have been conditionality placed on our sovereign loan guarantees for Ukraine. Conditions include anti-corruption reforms, as well as meeting larger stability goals and social safety nets.”

@seanmdav: Republicans are barely 10 minutes into their questioning, and Adam Schiff is already blocking GOP questions and instructing witnesses how to answer questions from Republicans. Unbelievable.

@J_Wade_Miller: All of a sudden Schiff cautions Taylor not to submit opinions that can’t be demonstrated by fact… after Taylor submitted numerous opinions that couldn’t be demonstrated by fact during Democrat questioning. This is a sham process.

@RepMarkMeadows: John Ratcliffe making a great point: Adam Schiff just apparently changed the rules mid-hearing. Virtually every question Democrats asked was leading, hearsay, or some other federal evidence rules violation. Now Schiff seems to be saying he can enforce those rules. Unreal.

GOP @RepAndyBiggsAZ: When asked about published stories recounting Ukraine’s activities during ’16 [Ukraine court ruled that Ukraine interfered in 2016 Election on behalf of Hillary], Taylor said he had no knowledge of the activities. How is it that the acting ambassador to Ukraine is unaware of basic facts regarding Ukraine published in well-known publications? Isn’t that his job?

Under questioning from Republicans’ attorney Steve Castor, Kent admitted that he was concerned about Hunter Biden’s role with Burisma.

@CBSEveningNews: George Kent: “To summarize, we thought the [CEO of Burisma] had stolen money. We thought a prosecutor had taken a bribe to shut the case.” GOP counsel: “Are you in favor of that matter being fully investigated and prosecuted?”   Kent: “I think since US tax payers money are wasted… We thought a prosecutor had taken a bribe to shut the case…” https://cbsn.ws/2Qf0y71

@DailyCaller: George Kent testifies that he “became aware that Hunter Biden was on the board of Burisma” and that he raised his concern of a conflict of interest with the then VP @JoeBiden’s national security staff in February 2015.

    George Kent testifies that investigations into corruption involving Burisma and former Ukrainian prosecutors are legitimate

https://twitter.com/DailyCaller/status/1194682853654777856

Castor: “So [Hunter Biden] is getting paid $50,000 a month but we don’t know whether he had any experience, spoke the language or whether he moved to Ukraine, correct?” Kent: “Correct.”

Fox’s @ChadPergram: [GOP Rep] Jordan notes how Taylor never met with Mulvaney & so much info was 2nd hand. Jordan: “You’re their star witness.” Taylor: “I don’t consider myself a star witness.” Jordan, looking at the Dems: “They do.”

GOP Rep Ratcliff to Taylor and Kent: “Are either of you here today to assert there was an impeachable offense in that call? Shout it out.” “Anyone?”  Neither would answer.

Ratcliff: “The Ukrainian President stood in front of a world press and repeatedly, consistently, over and over again, interview after interview, said he had no knowledge of military aid being withheld, meaning no quid pro quo… If House Democrats impeach Pres. Trump for a quid pro quo involving military aid, they have to call Pres. Zelensky a liar.  If they impeach him for abusing his power or pressuring or making threats or demands, they’d have to call Pres. Zelensky a liar to do it… Schiff says Zelensky was lying because he had to. The hole in the argument? What did Zelensky do to get the aid. Answer? Nothing. He didn’t do anything that house Dems say he was forced to do. He didn’t do anything because he didn’t have to.

@Liz_Wheeler: GOP Rep Stefanik: The first investigation against Burisma’s owner was under Pres. Obama’s admin? Kent: Correct.  Stefanik: When State Dept evaluates foreign assistance, it is appropriate for them to look at levels of corruption in countries?  Kent: Correct.

Jim Jordan Explains Why Trump Held Up the Money to Ukraine without a Quid Pro Quo

In 2018 President Trump had already done more for Ukraine than Obama did. President Trump… who knew how corrupt Ukraine was — did more than Obama because he gave them Javelins, tank-busting Javelins to fight the Russians… But when it came time to check out this new guy, President Trump said, ‘Let’s just see, let’s just see if he’s legit.’… So for 55 days, we checked him out. President Zelensky had five interactions with senior U.S. officials in that timeframe. One was, of course, the phone call, the July 25 phone call,” the congressman explained. “And there were four other face-to-face meetings with other senior U.S. officials. And guess what, in not one of those interactions — not one — were security assistance dollars linked to investigating Burisma or Biden.”…

https://pjmedia.com/trending/jim-jordan-explains-why-trump-held-up-the-money-to-ukraine-without-a-quid-pro-quo/

@LucasFoxNews: Devin Nunes calls for suspension of impeachment hearings until 3 topics answered:

  1. Democrats coordination with whistleblower?
  2. Full extent of Ukraine election meddling in 2016 against Trump?
  3. Why Ukraine energy company hired Hunter Biden and what did he do for them?

Rudy Giuliani DESTROYS Schiff’s First Witness GEORGE KENT – He’s Behind Dismissal of Investigation into Soros’s Corrupt AntAC Operation in Ukraine

   Rudy Giuliani: Also George Kent has a problem of his own. George Kent wrote a letter in which he asked that a case be dismissed by Lutsenko. And it was a case against Soros’s NGO AntAC and that company AntAC was right in the middle of gathering the dirty material on Trump, on Donald Trump Jr. It worked with Fusion GPS. The dismissal of that case has cost the government a lot of evidence that could be very, very damning in regard to collusion. But there’s enough left. There’s enough evidence left of collusion so that you got a very, very strong case that the DNC and Hillary Clinton were paying for and gathering information for Ukraine… 

    I would like to cross-examine George Kent. George Kent was her deputy, Marie Yovanovitch’s deputy. He was also the guy who set up the two so-called anti-corruption bureaus in the Ukraine that turned out to be Soros protection bureaus…https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2019/11/boom-rudy-giuliani-blows-up-schiffs-first-witness-george-kent-hes-behind-dismissal-of-investigation-into-soross-corrupt-antac-operation-in-ukraine/

AP: The inspector general in recent days has invited witnesses and their lawyers who were interviewed for the report to review portions of a draft this week and next, a critical final step toward making the document public, according to multiple people familiar with the process who insisted on anonymity to discuss it.  As part of that process, the people will have opportunities to raise concerns or suggest potential edits, making it unclear precisely when in the coming weeks a final version could be ready for release. Inspector General Michael Horowitz told Congress in a letter last month that he did not expect a lengthy review period and that he intended to make as much of the report public as possible, with minimal redactions…   https://apnews.com/1132509ac4c747ababd7a50c86b09364

John Solomon: @jsolomonReports: State officials acknowledge US embassy in Kiev exerted pressure on Ukraine prosecutors not to pursue cases against two government officials who attacked Paul Manafort, a journalist aligned with George Soros and a nonprofit funded by Soros. Anyone see a pattern?

The real Ukraine controversy: an activist U.S. embassy and its adherence to the Geneva Convention

The Geneva Convention… strictly mandates that foreign diplomats “have a duty not to interfere in the internal affairs of that State” that hosts them…

    Yovanovitch did give a speech on March 5, 2019 calling for Ukraine’s special anticorruption prosecutor to be removed…

   State officials confirmed that Soros’ foundation and the U.S. embassy jointly funded the AntiCorruption Action Centre, and that Soros’ vocal role in Ukraine as an anticorruption voice afforded him unique access to the State Department, including in 2016 to the top official on Ukraine policy, Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland…

   After being tipped to the current Yovanovitch furor in Ukraine, I [John Solomon] was alerted to an earlier controversy involving the same U.S. ambassador.  It turns out a senior member of Congress had in spring 2018 wrote a letter to Secretary of State Mike Pompeo alleging the ambassador had made anti-Trump comments and suggesting she be recalled…

    My sources told me specifically that the U.S. embassy had pressured the Ukraine prosecutors in 2016 to drop or avoid pursuing several cases, including one involving the Soros-backed AntiCorruption Action Centre and two cases involving Ukraine officials who criticized Donald Trump and his campaign manager Paul Manafort…

    George Kent, the embassy’s charge d’affaires in 2016 and now a deputy assistant secretary of state, confirmed in impeachment testimony that he personally signed the April 2016 letter demanding Ukraine drop the case against the Anti-Corruption Action Centre…

https://johnsolomonreports.com/the-real-ukraine-controversy-an-activist-u-s-embassy-and-its-adherence-to-the-geneva-convention/

Well that is all for today

I will see you Friday night.

 

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