DEC 26//GOLD PIERCES THE RESISTANCE OF 1500 DOLLAR GOLD TO CLOSE UP $9.85 AT $1509.60//SILVER COMMENCES ITS ASSAULT ON 18 DOLLAR SILVER AS IT IS UP 16 CENTS TO $17.91//PROTESTS CONTINUE IN HONG KONG//3RD REPO OPERATION CONTINUES OVERSUBSCRIBED BUT TODAY REPO RATES RISE////SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

GOLD:$1509.60 UP $9.85    (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING

 

SILVER:  $17.91 UP 16 CENTS  (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING) :

Closing access prices:

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gold :  $1511.15

 

silver:  $17.90

TODAY IS OPTIONS EXPIRY FOR THE COMEX AND IT HAD NO EFFECT ON PRICE. HOWEVER THE BIGGER TEST WILL BE OPTIONS EXPIRY FOR THE OTC/LBMA CONTRACTS EXPIRING DEC 31/2019

WE ALSO HAD AN INCREASE IN THE NEGATIVITY OF GOLD LEASING RATES AND AS SUCH IT IS INDICATING SCARCITY OF METAL.

 

 

COMEX DATA

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING:  0/43

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: DECEMBER 2019 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,499.100000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 12/24/2019 DELIVERY DATE: 12/27/2019
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
135 C RAND 1
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 1 3
685 C RJ OBRIEN 2
737 C ADVANTAGE 15 4
800 C MAREX SPEC 20
905 C ADM 6
991 H CME 34
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 43 43
MONTH TO DATE: 14,681

we are coming very close to a commercial failure!!

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  DEC CONTRACT: 43 NOTICE(S) FOR 4300 OZ (0.1337 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  14,638 NOTICES FOR 1,463800 OZ  (45.53 TONNES)

 

 

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR DEC

 

 

1 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 5,000  OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month: 4125 for 20,625,000 oz

 

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Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE :  $ 7195 DOWN 9 

 

 

 

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $ 7173 DOWN 125

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

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IN SILVER THE COMEX OI ROSE BY A HUMONGOUS SIZED 6259 CONTRACTS FROM 216,787 UP TO 223,046 WITH THE 32 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX.

TODAY WE ARRIVED CLOSER TO AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A  HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:,

; FEB 0; MARCH:  2928 AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  2928 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 2928 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 2928 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 14.64 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 32 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

7.32     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

2.630     MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOV.

20.900   MILLION OZ  INITIALLY STANDING IN DEC

YESTERDAY, AGAIN OUR CROOKS USED COPIOUS PAPER IN ORDER TO CONTAIN SILVER’S PRICE…AND THEY WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE 32 CENTS).. AND, OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS  WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE  SOME SILVER LONGS AS THE TOTAL GAIN IN OI ON BOTH EXCHANGES TOTALED  9187 CONTRACTS. OR 45.94 MILLION OZ…..

 

 

ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THE SPREADERS HAVE ALREADY STARTED THEIR INCREASE OF OI CONTRACTS IN SILVER. AND THAT IS PROBABLY THE REASON FOR THE STRONG GAIN IN COMEX OI.WE SHOULD SEE THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION PHASE BEGIN DURING THIS COMING WEEK.

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF DEC:

32,480 CONTRACTS (FOR 20 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 32,480 CONTRACTS) OR 162.400 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1624 CONTRACTS OR 8.120 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF DEC:  162.400 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 23.14% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

 

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          2,257.68   MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2019 EFP TOTALS:                                                      217.455. MILLION OZ

FEB 2019 TOTALS:                                                                       147.4     MILLION OZ/

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                          207.835 MILLION OZ

APRIL 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                              182.87  MILLION OZ.

MAY 2019: TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                136.55 MILLION OZ

JUNE 2019 , TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                               265.38 MILLION OZ

JULY 2019   TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                175.74 MILLION OZ

AUG. 2019  TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;                                                 216.47 MILLION OZ

SEPT 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE                                                  174.900 MILLION OZ

OCT 2019 TOTAL  EFP ISSUANCE:                                                  146.14 MILLION OZ

NOV 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                   213.60 MILLION OZ.

 

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW STOPPED IN GOLD AS THEY MORPH INTO SILVER AS THEY HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW FRONT MONTH WILL BE JANUARY. THE CONTRACTION PHASE WILL BEGIN THIS WEEK.

 

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEW, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE SPREADERS AND THE CRIMINAL ELEMENT BEHIND IT:

 

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR GOLD..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR SILVER.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEWCOMERS HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

.

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO SILVER AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX SILVER OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF DEC HEADING TOWARDS THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JANUARY FOR SILVER:

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS  ACTIVE MONTH OF DEC BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JAN), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

 

 

 

 

RESULT: WE HAD A HUMONGOUS SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 6259, WITH THE 32 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /TUESDAY… THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A  GIGANTIC SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 2928 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA)

TODAY WE GAINED AN ATMOSPHERIC AND CRIMINALLY SIZED: 9343 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 

i.e 2928 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH INCREASE OF 6259 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS STRONG DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 32 CENT GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $17.75 WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY!! 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.055 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 150% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT DEC MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 1 NOTICE(S) FOR 5,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018.  AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.70

 

.

 

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 10.025 MILLION OZ/ SEPT 43.030 MILLION OZ//OCT: 7.665 MILLION OZ//   NOV: 2.630 MILLION OZ//DEC:  20.900 MILLION OZ 
  2.  THE  RECORD WAS SET IN AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78//.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

 

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 

GOLD

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A HUMONGOUS SIZED 14,707 CONTRACTS TO 748,737 SETTING AN ALL TIME RECORD (SET DEC 26/2019)  AND THUS  ECLIPSING  OUR PREVIOUS ALL TIME RECORD OF 734,030 (SET DEC 24/2019).

THE RISE IN COMEX OI OCCURRED WITH A  $14.60 PRICING GAIN ACCOMPANYING COMEX GOLD TRADING// TUESDAY// /

 

 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 8750 CONTRACTS:

DEC 2019: 0 CONTRACTS, FEB>  8750 CONTRACTS APRIL: 0 AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at A RECORD 748,737,,.  ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE AN ATMOSPHERIC AND CRIMINALLY SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 23,457 CONTRACTS: 14,707 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX  AND 8750 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 23,457 CONTRACTS OR 2,345,700 OZ OR 72.96 TONNES.  TUESDAY WE HAD A GAIN OF $14.60 IN GOLD TRADING….

AND WITH THAT GAIN IN  PRICE, WE  HAD A VERY STRONG GAIN IN GOLD TONNAGE OF 72.96  TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS/OFFICIAL SECTOR WERE SUPPLYING INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER WITH RECKLESS ABANDON. THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE (UP $14.60) THEY WERE TOTALLY  UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO  FLEECE  GOLD LONGS FROM THE GOLD ARENA AS WE HAD OUR HUMONGOUS GAIN IN OPEN INTEREST ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES (72.96 TONNES). THE SPREADING OPERATION HAS NOW SWITCHED OVER TO SILVER.

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF DEC : 137,948 CONTRACTS OR 13,794,800 oz OR 429.07 TONNES (20 TRADING DAY AND THUS AVERAGING: 6897 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 20 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 429.07 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 429.07/3550 x 100% TONNES =12.08% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

WE ARE WITNESSING AN INCREASING USE OF OUR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL MECHANISM TO MOVE CONTRACTS OFF OF NY AND INTO LONDON. IT BEGAN IN JUNE 2019 AND CONTINUES TO THIS DAY.

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     6,155.17  TONNES

JANUARY 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;   531.20 TONNES

FEB 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:             344.36 TONNES

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:       497.16 TONNES

APRIL 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                 456.10 TONNES

MAY 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    449.10 TONNES

JUNE 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                   642.22 TONNES

JULY 2019: TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    591.56 TONNES

AUG. 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    639.62 TONNES

SEPT 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE              509.57 TONNES

OCT 2019 EFP ISSUANCE                           497.16 TONNES

NOV.2019 EFP ISSUANCE:                          568.20  TONNES

 

 

 

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

Result: A HUMONGOUS SIZED INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 14,707 WITH THE  PRICING GAIN THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK TUESDAY($14.60)) //.WE ALSO HAD A HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 8750 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 8750 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE  HAD AN ATMOSPHERIC AND CRIMINALLY SIZED GAIN OF 24,052 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

8750 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 14,707 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 72.96 TONNES). ..AND THIS  INCREASE OF DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A GAIN IN PRICE OF $14.60 WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX.

THE COMEX IS NOW UNDER FULL ASSAULT WITH RESPECT TO GOLD AND SILVER.

 

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With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

WITH GOLD $9.85 TODAY//(COMEX-TO COMEX)

A BIG CHANGE in gold inventory at the GLD:

A HUGE PAPER DEPOSIT OF: 2.93 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD

DEC 26/2019/Inventory rests tonight at 888.86 tonnes

 

 

 

 

 

SLV/

THIS MAKES NO SENSE WHATSOEVER:

 

 

WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY

NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY TODAY

 

 

 

DEC 26/INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.830 MILLION OZ.

 

 

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

 

 

end

 

OUTLINE OF TOPICS TONIGHT

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest in SILVER ROSE BY A HUMONGOUS SIZED 6259 CONTRACTS from 216,787 UP TO 223,046 AND CLOSER TO A NEW COMEX RECORD.  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 1/2 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

 

EFP ISSUANCE 2928

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 FOR FEB. 0; FOR MAR  2928  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2928 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE OI GAIN AT THE COMEX OF 6415  CONTRACTS TO THE 2928 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A HUMONGOUS AND CRIMINALLY SIZED GAIN OF 9343 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 45.94 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL  18.765 MILLION OZ FOR MAY  NOW 2.660 MILLION OZ FOR JUNE WITH JULY AT 22.605 MILLION OZ AUGUST AT 10.025 MILLION OZ//  SEPT: 43.030 MILLION OZ///OCT: 7.32 MILLION OZ//NOV 2.63 MILLION OZ//DEC: 20.90 MILLION OZ//

 

 

RESULT: A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE 32 CENT GAIN IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// TUESDAY. WE ALSO HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED 2928 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

 

 

.

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)THURSDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 25.47 POINTS OR 0.85%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 42.20 POINTS OR 0.15%   /The Nikkei closed UP 142.05 POINTS OR 0.60%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 7.0007 /Oil UP TO 61.21 dollars per barrel for WTI and 67.39 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 7.0007 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.9971 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

 

3b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3C  CHINA

i)CHINA

Capital leaving China at a record rate and that it will spell trouble for China shortly

(Mish Shedlock/Mishtalk)

ii)HONG KONG

third day in a row for protests as Carrie Lam blames the rioters for “ruining” Christmas
(zerohedge)

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

 

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

i)IRAN

Iran again blocks the internet for its citizens.  Funerals are being held for those killed in the protesting movement and Iran is trying to head off any future protests.

(zerohedge)

ii)TURKEY/USA/NATO

Turkey is using its muscle as they balk at USA sanctions threat.  It warns that it may evict USA forces from Incirlik, which houses the 2nd highest amount of NATO forces after Germany.
So far, Trump is not willing to combat Erdogan
(zerohedge)

iii)ISRAEL/IRAN/IRAQ/LEBANON/GAZA/HEZBOLLAH

Israel outlines its strategy for its upcoming war against Iran and its allies.  Israel cannot afford to see weapons move into Iraq from Iran.
(zerohedge)

6.Global Issues

BALTIC DRY INDEX/GLOBAL SHIPPING

The Baltic Dry index is a very important index telling us the movement of dry goods (ex oil) throughout the world.  It has tumbled the most since 2008

(zerohedge)

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)A super commentary from Chris Powell of GATA and this is a must read… It explains the corruption in the  precious metals market

(Chris Powell/GATA)

ii)Russia is now considering putting some of its National Wealth Fund into gold

(Reuters)

10. important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

Skyrm vs Pozsar

who will be right.

Today, a third unsubscribed turn repo . However Repo rate rises from 1.54 to 1.6%.  Still too early to tell if we will have a balance sheet problem Dec 31

(zerohedge)

iv) Swamp commentaries)

Alan Dershowitz commented on whether Trump has been impeached. Judging by the case in Nixon vs the USA the Senate does not need the transmittal of documents to proceed with the case

 

(Alan Dershowitz)

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

 

LET US BEGIN:

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A HUMONGOUS SIZED 14,707 CONTRACTS, UP TO A NEW RECORD OF 748,737 (SET DEC 26/2019) (ECLIPSING OUR PREVIOUS NEW RECORD OF 734,030 SET DEC 24/2019) WITH THE GAIN OF $14.60 IN GOLD PRICING // TUESDAY’S // COMEX TRADING)

WE ARE NOW IN THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF DEC..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A HUGE SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 8750 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

DEC: 00 ; FEB: 8750  AND APRIL: 00  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 8750 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A WHOPPING 23,457 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 8750 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A GIGANTIC SIZED 14,707 COMEX CONTRACTS.

THE BANKERS SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY AND INFINITE AMOUNT OF SHORT PAPER IN GOLD.  THE BANKERS WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE //// (IT ROSE BY $14.60). AND THEY WERE MOST DEFINITELY UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING ANY LONGS AS WE GAINED AN ATMOSPHERIC AND CRIMINALLY SIZED  23,457 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES…..

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ::  23,457 CONTRACTS OR 2,345,700 OZ OR 72.96  TONNES.  

 

 

We are now in the  active contract month of DEC.  This month is always the biggest delivery month of the year.  Here we have a total of 147 open interest stand for a LOSS of 580 contracts.  We had 589 notices filed on TUESDAY so we GAINED ANOTHER  9 contracts or an additional 900 OZ will stand for delivery at the comex as they will try their luck finding physical metal on the this side of the pond as they refused to morph into London based forwards and well as negating a fiat bonus…queue jumping resumes with a vengeance.

 

we had: 43 notice(s) filed upon for 58,900 oz of gold at the comex.

 

The next non active contract month after Dec, is  January and it saw its OI DECREASE by 117 contracts DOWN to 2495 which is STILL UNBELIEVABLY  high for a January delivery month. Normally we see some rolling action as longs sell their January contracts and move to Feb.  This is not happening..longs are refusing to roll and are standing pat!!

The next active delivery month after January is February and here we witnessed A GAIN  OF 12,762 in contracts UP to 533,761.

THE PAPER HELD FOR JANUARY IS IN VERY STRONG HANDS AND THESE GUYS ARE REFUSING TO ROLL.  THIS IS ROUGHLY 7.7 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WILL BE A HUGE RECORD STANDING FOR A GENERALLY WEAK JANUARY DELIVERY MONTH.

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now for the wild silver comex results

Total COMEX silver OI ROSE BY A HUMONGOUS SIZED 6259 CONTRACTS FROM 216,787 UP TO 223,046(AND CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TUESDAY’S STRONG  OI COMEX GAIN OCCURRED WITH A 32 CENT GAIN IN PRICING/.

WE ARE NOW INTO THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF DEC.

Here we have a LOSS of 141 contracts DOWN to 56. We had 134 notices served up on longs yesterday, so we LOST 7 contracts or an additional 35,000 oz will NOT stand in this active delivery month of December AT THE COMEX as they guys  morphed into London based forwards as well as accepting a fiat bonus. I guess they gave up trying to find metal over here so they decided to try their luck in London

After December, we have a LOSS in the next front month of January of 130 contracts to stand at 450.  The Feb non active month saw a GAIN of 64 contracts UP to 271.  March is a very active month and here we witness a GAIN of 5575 contracts UP to 176,555

 

 

We, today, had 1 notice(s) filed for 5,000, OZ for the DEC, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 210,217 contracts 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY: 194,222 contracts

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  DEC/GOLD

DEC 26/2019

 

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
nil oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz 893.53 oz

 

BRINKS

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

nil

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
43 notice(s)
 4,300 OZ
(0.1337 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
251 contracts
(25100 oz)
0.7807 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
14,681 notices
1,468100 OZ
45.664 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

we had 0 dealer entry:

We had 1 kilobar entries

 

(i) Into the dealer Brinks:  893.53 oz

 

 

total dealer deposits: 893.53 oz

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

 

we had 0 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan: nil  oz

 

 

ii)into everybody else  0

 

total gold deposits: 0  oz

 

 

 

 

we had 0 gold withdrawals from the customer account:

 

 

 

 

 

 

total gold withdrawals; nil oz

ADJUSTMENTS:  0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

FOR THE DEC 2019 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 43 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the DEC /2019. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (14,681) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  DEC. (147 contracts) minus the number of notices served upon today (43 x 100 oz per contract) equals 1,478,500 OZ OR 45.987 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this  active month of DEC

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the DEC/2019 contract month:

No of notices served (14,681 x 100 oz)  + (727)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (43 x 100 oz )which equals 1,478,500 oz standing OR 45.98 TONNES in this  active delivery month of DEC.

(amt standing corrected from my error on Tuesday’s data)

 

We GAINED 9 contracts or an additional 900 oz will stand at the comex as they REFUSED TO  morph into London based forwards.

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES…. WE HAVE ONLY 32.016 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS.

HERE IS WHAT STOOD DURING THESE PAST 5 MONTHS:  AUGUST 27.153 TONNES

SEPT:                                                                      5.4525 TONNES

 

OCT…………………………………………………………………………..   37.99 TONNES

NOV……                                                                5.3841 tonnes

DEC………………………….                                              45.98 TONNES

 

total: 121.95 tonnes

ACCORDING TO COMEX RULES:

 

IF WE INCLUDE THE PAST 5 MONTHS OF SETTLEMENTS WE HAVE 17.9576 TONNES SETTLED

 

IF WE ADD THE FIVE DELIVERY MONTHS: 121.95  tonnes

 

Thus:

121.95 tonnes of delivery –

18.2539 TONNES DEEMED SETTLEMENT

= 103.69 TONNES STANDING FOR METAL AGAINST 32.016 TONNES OF REGISTERED OR FOR SALE COMEX GOLD! THIS IS WHY GOLD IS SCARCE AT THE COMEX.

 

total registered or dealer gold:   1,266,891.153 oz or  39.405 tonnes
which  includes the following:
a) registered gold that can be used to settle upon: 1,029,337.9 oz (32.016 tonnes)
b) pledged gold held at HSBC  which cannot settle upon:  237,553.646 oz  ( 7.38989)//+
    total  7.38989 tonnes
true registered gold  (total registered – pledged tonnes  1,029337.9  (32.016 tonnes)
total registered, pledged  and eligible (customer) gold;   8,668,706.612 oz 269.63 tonnes

 

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX 
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.

WHY ARE THEY NOT SETTLING?

 

THE COMEX IS AN ABSOLUTE FRAUD..

 

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH OF DEC.

INITIAL  standings/SILVER

IN TOTAL CONTRAST TO GOLD, HUGE ACTIVITY IN SILVER TODAY.
DEC 26 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 nil oz

 

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
4804.300 oz
Brinks

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
nil oz
No of oz served today (contracts)
1
CONTRACT(S)
(5,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
55 contracts
 275,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  4125 contracts

20,625,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

**

 

we had 1 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

i) Into the  Dealer Brinks:  4804.300 oz

 

total dealer deposits: 4804.300 oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

i)we had  0 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:   0

 

ii) Into everybody else; 0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 161.3 million oz of  total silver inventory or 50.77% of all official comex silver. (161.3 million/317.74 million

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  0  oz

 

we had 0 withdrawals out of the customer account:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total withdrawals; nil  oz

We had 1 adjustment:

i) Out of Delaware:

5,000.000 oz  exactly ??? was adjusted out of the customer and this landed into the dealer account of Delaware

 

 

total dealer silver:  89.179 million

total dealer + customer silver:  317.792 million oz

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The total number of notices filed today for the DEC 2019. contract month is represented by 1 contract(s) FOR 5,000 oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in  DEC, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 4125 x 5,000 oz = 20,625,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of DEC. (56) and the number of notices served upon today 1 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the DEC/2019 contract month: 4124 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of DEC (56)- number of notices served upon today (1) x 5000 oz equals 20,900,000 oz of silver standing for the DEC contract month.

 

We lost 7 contracts or an additional 35,000 oz will not stand at the comex as they morphed into London based forwards. They just gave up looking for metal on this side of the pond.

 

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN:  THE COMEX IS UNDER ASSAULT FOR BOTH PHYSICAL GOLD AND SILVER WITH SILVER IN THE LEAD BY FAR. DESPITE  MASSIVE RAIDS, LONGS CONTINUE WITH THEIR HUNT AT THE COMEX FOR PHYSICAL METAL.. IT WILL NOT BE LONG BEFORE WE WITNESS A COMMERCIAL FAILURE..STAY TUNED..WE WITNESSED CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING IN SILVER TODAY AND AN ATTEMPTED BANKER SHORT COVERING IN GOLD WITH ZERO SUCCESS.

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 1 notice(s) filed for 5,000 OZ for the DEC, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME:  87,544 CONTRACTS //

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 67,839 CONTRACTS..

 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 67,839 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 339 million  OZ 48.4% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..makes sense!!

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

 

end

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

NPV for Sprott

 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV RISES TO -1.48% ((DEC 26/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -0.90% to NAV (DEC 26/2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ -1.48%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 15.17 TRADING 14.65///DISCOUNT  3,42

 

END

 

 

 

 

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

DEC 26/WITH GOLD UP $9.85 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.93 TONNES INTO THE GLD.///INVENTORY RESTS AT 888.86 TONNES

DEC 24/WITH GOLD UP $14.60//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 885.93 TONNES

DEC 23/WITH GOLD UP $7.75: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.64 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 885.93 TONNES

DEC 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.15 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.29 TONNES

DEC 19/WITH GOLD UP $6.65 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.65 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.29 TONNES

DEC 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 5.56 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.66 TONNES

DEC 17/WITH GOLD UP $.30 TODAY: 1 SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .29 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.22 TONNES

DEC 16//WITH GOLD DOWN $.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 885.93 TONNES

DEC 13/ WITH GOLD UP $8.60 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 885.93 TONNES

DEC 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.65: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 885.93 TONNES

DEC 11/WITH GOLD UP $7.00: A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .30 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 885.93 TONNES

DEC 10//WITH GOLD UP $3.00: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.23 TONNES

DEC 9//WITH GOLD DOWN $.60: A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.34 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.23 TONNES

DEC 6//WITH GOLD DOWN $16.75 NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 888.57 TONNES

DEC 5/2019: WITH GOLD UP $3.60 TODAY: A  SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF .59 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 888.57 TONNES

DEC 4/2019/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.00 TODAY//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.16 TONNES

DEC 3/WITH GOLD UP $15.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 7.32 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.16 TONNES

 

DEC 2 /WITH GOLD DOWN $.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 895.60 TONNES

NOV 29/WITH GOLD UP $9.85//A SMALL  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL TO PAY FOR FEES ETC./INVENTORY RESTS AT 895.60 TONNES

 

NOV 27//WITH GOLD DOWN $6.10 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 896.48 TONNES//

NOV 26/WITH GOLD UP $3.10 TODAY:: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER GOLD DEPOSIT OF 4.69 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 896.48 TONNES

NOV 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.45: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 891.79 TONNES

NOV 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.00//NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 891.79 TONNES

NOV 21/ WITH GOLD DOWN $10.85 //NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 891.79 TONNES

NOV 20/WITH GOLD UP $.50 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 891.79 TONNES

NOV 19/WITH GOLD UP $2.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE:  A MASSIVE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 4.98 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD AND THIS WITH A GOLD PRICE RISE?/INVENTORY RESTS AT 891.79 TONNES

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

DEC 26/2019/Inventory rests tonight at 888.86 tonnes

*IN LAST 732 TRADING DAYS: 48.39 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 632 TRADING DAYS: A NET 118.66 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

DEC  26//WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.830 MILLION OZ//

DEC 24/WITH SILVER UP 32 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.830 MILLION OZ///

 

DEC 23/WITH SILVER UP 26 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.028 MILLION PAPER OZ IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.830 MILLION OZ//

DEC 20/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 364.858 MILLION OZ//

DEC 19/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 364.858 MILLION OZ//

DEC 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 364.858 MILLION OZ//

DEC 17//WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY: A FAIR SIZED CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 747,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 364.858 MILLION OZ/?

DEC 16/WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 365.605 MILLION OZ//

DEC 13//WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 365.605 MILLION OZ//

DEC 12/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 365.605 MILLION OZ

DEC 11/WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 365.605 MILLION OZ//

DEC 10//WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY:  A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.495 MILLION OZ//// INVENTORY RESTS  AT 365.605 MILLION OZ//

DEC 9/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.869 MILLION OZ FROM SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 367.100 MILLION OZ/

DEC 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 42 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 368.969 MILLION OZ//

DEC 5//WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 368.969 MILLION OZ//

DEC 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 31 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 368.969 MILLION OZ//

DEC 3//WITH SILVER UP 25 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.512 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 368.969 MILLION OZ..

DEC 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 370.481 MILLION OZ

NOV 29/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.383 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 370.481 MILLION OZ//

 

NOV 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.868 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 372.864 MILLION OZ//

NOV 26//WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY REST AT 374.732 MILLION OZ/

NOV 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 12  CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 374.732 MILLION OZ//

NOV 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TO DAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 374.732 MILLION OZ

NOV 21/  WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY/a big CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 84,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 374.732 MILLION OZ//

NOV 20/WITH SILVER UP 0 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.574 MILLION OZ//

NOV 19/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.574 MILLION OZ//

 

 

DEC 26:  SLV INVENTORY

363.830 MILLION OZ

 

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.07/ and libor 6 month duration 1.92

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: – .15

BIG CHANGE!!//GOLD SCARCE

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 1.99%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 2.01

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.02

end

 

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

 

 

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

A super commentary from Chris Powell of GATA and this is a must read… It explains the corruption in the  precious metals market

(Chris Powell/GATA)

The signs swirl all around us, so is the reset at hand?

 Section: 

4:38p ET Tuesday, December 24, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

For most of this decade owning gold and gold-related investments has required the patience of Job, and the sector is so obscure that it is hard to be sure of anything. But for months now the unusual developments have been piling up so much that it may be possible to regain some optimism.

There are indications of a shortage of metal not just at the New York Commodities Exchange, where for months now most contracts have been settled through a supposedly “emergency” procedure called “exchange for physicals,” but also in London, the hub of the world gold market, where the usual flow of metal to Switzerland recently reversed, with metal flowing back to London amid increasing demand. This corresponded with announcements of gold acquisitions by central banks that had not shown any interest in gold.

… 

For months the usual central bank-inspired smashes in the gold futures markets have not been having much effect, even as GATA consultant Robert Lambourne has reported increasing intervention in the market by the Bank for International Settlements:

http://www.gata.org/node/19693

The Comex has just quickly authorized a vast expansion in what bullion banks can use as collateral for their selling — “pledged gold” held off the exchange, supposedly in London, for whose existence and unimpairment there is no public evidence.

Amid these indications of shortages, the open interest in gold futures on the Comex keeps hitting record highs. The bullion banks selling the contracts seem to be acting as if the gold supply itself is infinite, not just the supply of gold paper.

Or maybe they are acting as if they have confidence that when real metal is exhausted, as it was in early 1968 when the previous gold price suppression scheme, the London Gold Pool, faltered and then collapsed, they will be immunized by a declaration of force majeure, cash settlement, an official revaluation of gold, and even capital controls on the monetary metal, such as Swiss gold fund manager Egon von Greyerz and London metals trader Andrew Maguire claim already to be in operation at banks in Switzerland.

Any prediction about the gold price is of course just a guess. But the developments described here are facts, and surreptitious intervention against gold is longstanding Western government policy amply documented by GATA and confirmed by the refusal of the U.S. Treasury Department, Federal Reserve System, and Commodity Futures Trading Commission to answer some specific questions we have posed along with U.S. Rep. Alex X. Mooney of West Virginia.

Governments less enthusiastic about this market rigging have been on to it at least since 2004 when the Bank of Russia’s deputy chairman, Oleg V. Mozhaiskov, annoyed the London Bullion Market Association’s meeting in Moscow by mentioning GATA’s work, calling the gold price “enigmatic” and slyly confessing to suspicion that “the real forces acting on the gold market are far from those of classic textbooks that explain to students how prices are born in a free market”:

http://www.gata.org/node/4235

It is hardly a stretch to suggest that these other governments, including Russia and China, have been acting on Mozhaiskov’s suspicion. Indeed, the U.S. economists Paul Brodsky and Lee Quaintance hypothesized seven years ago that gold price suppression had become part of a central banking plan to redistribute world gold reserves in anticipation of an international currency reset that would push the gold price way up to hedge central banks against currency devaluations:

http://www.gata.org/node/11373

The infinite money lately being created and distributed by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York means infinite leverage in the markets, infinite market rigging, infinite speculation, infinite misallocation of capital, and infinite corruption. But to succeed it requires infinite commodity price suppression, or else government currencies are ruined.

So what happens if the primary monetary commodity — gold — runs out, as it more or less did upon the collapse of the London Gold Pool in 1968 and the government-ordered suspension of the world’s main gold market?

Does that lead to von Mises’ crackup boom, a flight to hard assets?

Your secretary/treasurer doesn’t know. He dropped out of college and the single economics course he took there was incomprehensible to him. But “what has been will be again, what has been done will be done again, and there is nothing new under the sun.” Governments rig markets and particularly the monetary metals markets to sustain their power. Governments undertake various forms of war against each other — military, political, and economic — to gain or restrict power. And as his deputy explained to Secretary of State Henry Kissinger at the State Department in 1974, control of the gold price is control of the world, and gold is the secret knowledge of the financial universe:

http://www.gata.org/node/13310

The signs swirl all around us even as mainstream news organizations strive to ignore them and governments and central banks refuse to discuss them. So on this Christmas eve let us confidently hope that a little more light will come into the world again soon.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Help keep GATA going:

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

END

Russia is now considering putting some of its National Wealth Fund into gold

(Reuters)

Russia could consider investing part of National Wealth Fund in gold

 Section: 

From Reuters
Tuesday, December 24, 2019

MOSCOW — Russia could consider investing part of its National Wealth Fund in gold, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said, adding that he sees investment in the precious metal as more sustainable in the long-term than in financial assets.

Russia is one of the world’s largest gold producers, while its central bank has been the main buyer of its metal in recent years when — partly due to Western sanctions imposed on Moscow in 2014 — the central bank was reducing the share of U.S. dollar assets in its reserves.

… 

For now,the finance ministry proposes that the National Wealth Fund’s new investment structure mirrors the foreign exchanges reserves structure of the central bank and excludes gold, Siluanov told reporters on Tuesday.

The finance ministry’s National Wealth Fund accumulates revenues from oil exports and was initially designed to support the pension system. It was worth $124 billion as of Dec. 1.

The central bank’s gold reserves stood at 72.7 million troy ounces, worth $105.9 billion, as of December 1.

“There is a discussion on whether to invest the fund’s money in gold and precious metals. There are a lot of supporters and opponents,” Siluanov said. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-russia-economy-budget-gold/russia-cou…

* * *

end

iii) Other physical stories:

 J. Johnson’s latest

END

Cryptocurrencies:

Good reason not to invest in cryptos

(Chainalysisblog)

 

Is The $2 Billion PlusToken Scam Driving Down The Price Of Bitcoin?

Via Chainalysis blog,

Scams are all too common in the cryptocurrency world, with our internal research suggesting bad actors bilked billions of dollars’ worth of funds from millions of victims in 2019. In addition to the monetary losses sustained by affected individuals, scams paint a negative picture of the industry and may scare off potential participants.

But in the case of one notable 2019 scam, the consequences may go beyond the direct victims. We believe that the criminals behind the PlusToken Ponzi scheme could be driving down the price of Bitcoin when they liquidate their stolen funds via OTC brokers.

What is PlusToken?

Based in China, PlusToken presented itself as a cryptocurrency wallet that would reward users with high rates of return if they purchased the wallet’s associated PLUS cryptocurrency tokens with Bitcoin or Ethereum. The scammers claimed those returns would be generated by “exchange profit, mining income, and referral benefits.” PlusToken would go on to be listed on several Chinese exchanges and hit a peak price of $350 USD, raking in “investments” from millions of people.

Chinese media reports that the scam attracted over $3 billion worth of cryptocurrency. We tracked a total of 180,000 BTC, 6,400,000 ETH, 111,000 USDT, and 53 OMG (OmiseGo) that went from scam victims to PlusToken wallets, equating to roughly $2 billion. Either figure would make PlusToken one of the largest Ponzi schemes ever.

While six individuals connected to PlusToken were arrested in June, the stolen funds have continued to move through wallets and be cashed out through independent OTC brokers operating mostly on the Huobi platform, showing that one or more of the scammers are still at large.

How the PlusToken scammers utilize mixers, OTC brokers, and more to launder and cash out funds

While we tracked $2 billion worth of various cryptocurrencies that victims sent to the PlusToken scammers, some of that money was paid out to early investors, presumably to maintain the illusion of high returns while PlusToken presented itself as a legitimate company. In many cases, it’s difficult to tell whether transfers made by the PlusToken scammers were going to those early investors or to addresses under their own control. Nonetheless, we’ve tracked roughly 800,000 ETH and 45,000 BTC we can definitively say the scammers transferred to their own addresses to launder. They’ve cashed out at least 10,000 of that initial 800,000 ETH, while the other 790,000 has been sitting untouched in a single Ethereum wallet for months.

The flow of the 45,000 stolen Bitcoin is more complicated. So far, roughly 25,000 of it has been cashed out. The other 20,000 is currently spread out across more than 8,700 cryptocurrency addresses, which speaks to the high level of effort the scammers put into obfuscating the movement of funds. The scammers have transferred the Bitcoin more than 24,000 times, using more than 71,000 different addresses — and that’s not even counting cash outs or transfers to off-ramps such as exchanges.

Many of those transactions were conducted through mixers like Wasabi Wallet, which utilizes the CoinJoin protocol to make it more difficult to trace the path of funds. You can see an example in the Chainalysis Reactor graph below.

Here, we see that the funds are split off into large groups of new unique addresses, and re-consolidated later, which is activity typical of a mixer.

At other points, the scammers utilized peel chains and other complex movements to obfuscate the path of funds. Peel chains are strings of transactions commonly used for money laundering, in which entities send funds through several wallets in quick succession, usually breaking off small amounts to cash out at each step and sending the majority on to the next wallet.

The graph above is a great example of the PlusToken scammers’ obfuscation attempts. The funds start in the wallet in the upper left hand corner, and move to the right. Diagonal movements represent a change in address type, while vertical movements represent the use of a mixer.

In the end, the funds moved to the address of an OTC broker operating on Huobi to be liquidated — that’s how nearly all of the funds so far have been cashed out. For reference, OTC (Over The Counter) brokers facilitate trades between individual buyers and sellers who can’t or don’t want to transact on an open exchange. OTC brokers are typically associated with an exchange but operate independently. Traders often use OTC brokers if they want to liquidate a large amount of cryptocurrency for a set, negotiated price.

Some OTC brokers have significantly lower KYC requirements than most exchanges, which can make them attractive for criminals like the PlusToken scammers. Compliant exchanges monitor transactions and keep customer information on file so that they can report suspicious activity and comply with subpoenas from law enforcement. But OTC brokers play by different rules. While many are legitimate, others take advantage of lower KYC requirements to offer service to users with illicit funds. Some even specialize in the movement and laundering of criminal money.

And in this case, as we’ll examine below, these cashouts via OTC brokers may be driving down the market price of Bitcoin.

Are PlusToken scam liquidations driving down the price of Bitcoin?

So far, the PlusToken scammers have cashed out at least $185,000,000 worth of stolen Bitcoin via OTC brokers. Those who analyze cryptocurrency markets know that large liquidations generally tend to depress the price of Bitcoin, and others have asked if PlusToken-related cashouts are dragging down Bitcoin. We decided to run our own study of Bitcoin’s price in relation to PlusToken cashouts via Huobi OTC brokers to try and answer that question.

For this analysis, we started by plotting Bitcoin’s price listing on Huobi against two measures of PlusToken’s Bitcoin transfers:

  1. On-chain volume.On-chain volume is the amount of Bitcoin moving from wallets controlled by the PlusToken scammers to any of 26 prominent OTC brokers on Huobi that we’ve previously identified as dealing with illicit funds.
  2. Trade volume. Off-chain volume refers to the amount of Bitcoin for Tether traded on Huobi. We chose this metric because we know from our analysis that PlusToken scammers have consistently exchanged their stolen Bitcoin for Tether, possibly converting it to fiat currency later. However, because these transfers are recorded only in Huobi’s order books rather than on the blockchain, we have no way of knowing which of them are coming from the sale of Bitcoin from the PlusToken scammers as opposed to other users of the exchange.

Our hypothesis consists of two parts:

  1. We expect that any uptick in on-chain volume would be followed by an uptick in trade volume, as OTC traders receive Bitcoin from PlusToken wallets and subsequently exchange it for Tether.
  2. We expect Bitcoin’s price to fall soon after those upticks in on-chain and trade volume, as more Bitcoin is being unloaded onto the market.

Both parts of our hypothesis were proven true.

Our results

Figure 1

Above, we see that PlusToken wallets sent a steady flow of Bitcoin starting in mid-April and spiking just before the arrests in late June. After that, we see no movement until a few spikes in August, before transfers spike again and remain high throughout September. Then, we see a few more spikes in October. As we hypothesized, spikes in on-chain flow to OTC brokers correlate with drops in Bitcoin’s price. There can be a lag, as Bitcoin that is moved on-chain to an exchange is not immediately traded. We see the best example on September 20th, when PlusToken scammers made a large cash out of roughly $34 million worth of Bitcoin. Following that transfer, Bitcoin’s price drops steadily between September 24th and 26th, falling from just over $10,000 to about $8,000 and remaining there for roughly a month.

But what about trade volume? Check out the graph below.

Figure 2

Our hypothesis is proven correct here as well. As we expected, we see a rise in trades of Bitcoin for Tether starting on September 23rd, a few days after the PlusToken wallets sent a large volume of Bitcoin to Huobi OTC brokers. Shortly after on September 24th, the price of Bitcoin begins to drop.

 

From this analysis, we can conclude that PlusToken cashouts correlate with drops in Bitcoin’s price.

Can we prove causation?

We can’t say for sure that Bitcoin price drops are caused by PlusToken cashouts. It’s possible that price drops follow the cashouts by coincidence but are in fact caused by something else. In an attempt to settle the question of causation, we ran a regression analysis to test how the increase in trade volume between September 23rd and 28th impacted Bitcoin’s price volatility. Ordinarily, we’d test how trade volume impacts the price itself, but there’s only one large change in Bitcoin price for the time period we’re measuring (on September 24th). We need a measure with more variation to look for statistical causality and ensure results aren’t driven by outliers. Volatility, which measures the deviation from the average Bitcoin price at a given time, has enough variation to do that, while also giving us a sense of how the PlusToken cashouts impact Bitcoin’s price.

Figure 3

Our regression analysis shows a positive, albeit small, statistically significant relationship between PlusToken transfers to Huobi OTC brokers and Bitcoin price volatility for the period of time between September 23rd and 28th.

The cashouts likely caused increased volatility in one of two ways. They either cause it directly by increasing the supply of Bitcoin and changing market dynamics, or indirectly by affecting traders’ perception of the market. Keep in mind that PlusToken cashouts are just one of many potential influences on Bitcoin’s price. Media stories, concerted market manipulation efforts, algorithmic trading errors, or any number of other factors may have contributed to volatility as well. But none of those components on their own provides a compelling explanation for the large spike in volatility in the time period we studied absent the influence of PlusToken.

Unfortunately, because it’s not possible to distinguish between trades made by OTC brokers in possession of PlusToken funds and all other trades made on Huobi, we can’t say for sure that PlusToken cashouts caused Bitcoin’s price to drop. However, we can say that those cashouts cause increased volatility in Bitcoin’s price, and that they correlate significantly with Bitcoin price drops.

More reasons to fight fraud

As of now, at least 20,000 Bitcoin — nearly $150,000,000 USD worth — has yet to be cashed out. It’ll be interesting to observe whether the relationship between those cashouts and Bitcoin’s price continues. Given this analysis and the effects we’ve observed so far, liquidations of large amounts of illicitly obtained funds are likely to drive down the price of cryptocurrencies.

The PlusToken scam is a powerful example of how cryptocurrency scams harm the public, and should alarm exchanges, law enforcement, and regulators alike. In this case, millions of fraud victims will most likely never recover the funds they were tricked into giving up. Allowing OTC brokers to operate without scrutiny gives criminals a simple, obvious way to launder their ill-gotten funds, and exchanges should conduct KYC and monitor activity. Regulators around the world should recognize this as a consumer protection issue, and consider how they might apply anti-money laundering regulations to prevent scams like this from happening in the future.

Our 2020 Crypto Crime Report is full of more insights and case studies just like this. Sign up now and we’ll email it to you as soon as it’s released in January 2020!

endEND-

JP Morgan Gold and Silver Manipulation Case: Class Action Suit Update

With the Depar tment of Justice labeling JP Morgan a “Criminal Enterprise” while charging it with the RICO Act, many who suffered losses in the gold and silver markets due to the bank’s illegal activity are wondering if there are options for compensation.

At this point, the short answer is I’m not sure. But it’s looking like that will be the case.

Here’s an update with what I currently know, and I will report back soon. Because as I am writing this, I have just heard about some new positive developments in the case.

So click to watch this short video and hit the subscribe button to stay posted!

 

Chris Marcus

 

end

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early THURSDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 7.0007/ GETTING VERY DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.9971   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 25.47 POINTS OR 0.85%

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 42.20 POINTS OR 0.15%

 

2. Nikkei closed UP 142.05 POINTS OR 0.6%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL MIXED/

 

 

 

USA dollar index UP TO 97.65/Euro FALLS TO 1.1087

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. –.01/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 109.53/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 61.21 and Brent: 67.39

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE UP/OFF- SHORE: UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO -.24%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 1.43% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.44%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.67: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO : 1.46

3k Gold at $1504.95 silver at: 17.95   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 9/100 in roubles/dollar) 61.90

3m oil into the 61 dollar handle for WTI and 67 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 109.53 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9813 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0879 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to 0.24%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 1.91% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.34%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.9397..

Market Meltup Returns As China Spreads Some More Trade Deal Optimism

After a modest, brief, and largely inexplicable red close on Christmas Eve coming at a time when the Fed is injecting tens of billions of liquidity into the market every single day, things are back to normal on Thursday when global stocks have resumed their meltup as US index index futures reversed all of Tuesday’s losses…

… while most of Europe was closed and Asian stocks ticked higher on Thursday in holiday-thinned trading as investors looked ahead the promised trade deal between the world’s biggest economies in January. Treasuries dipped.

Today’s meltup was brought to you by more of the same: trade deal optimism, this time from China, whose commerce ministry spokesman said that China is in close touch with the United States on signing a Phase 1 trade deal” adding that both sides are still going through necessary procedures before the signing. Somehow, algos saw this as news and decided to rip futures higher.

With most of Europe closed for holidays, the modest overnight activity was focused on Asia where shares ended the session higher in Tokyo, Shanghai and Seoul, while markets were closed in Hong Kong and Sydney. Asian stocks rose on subdued volumes ahead of the New Year’s holidays, as information technology stocks rose, while energy-related companies fell. Markets in the region were mixed, with gains in China and Japanese stocks offsetting a decline in Philippine equities. The Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index was down 0.4%. India’s S&P BSE Sensex India dropped by a similar magnitude. Earlier today, Japan’s chief cabinet secretary Yoshihide Suga said the country is proceeding with preparations for the establishment of casinos, while the BOJ left unchanged the planned bond-purchase ranges and frequencies for all maturities in its buying operations for January, when compared with December.

Global stocks have enjoyed an impressive meltup to close the year, with the Bloomberg world exchange market cap hitting an all time high of $87 trillion, while the $51 trillion MSCI ACWI Index of world stocks has jumped more than 8% in the final three months of the year, a quarterly performance that has rarely if ever been bested.

Of course, by now everyone knows what is behind the nearly 30% rise in equities – a 30% expansion in PE multiples, confirming that this is all central banks. Indeed, this year’s central bank balance-sheet expansion “is providing a deluge of liquidity for institutional investors to gorge on,” said Stephen Innes, chief Asia market strategist at Axitrader. “When you combine this cash bonanza with the probable economic bounce from a tariff reversal, it gives more than reasonable cause to own risk assets.”

In rates, ten-year Treasury yields moved slightly higher with 2-year and 10-year yields rise 1bp as markets re-open after being closed Wednesday for Christmas Day, while the dollar fluctuated versus its major peers before U.S. jobless claims data due later Thursday. The Japanese yen headed for its biggest drop in almost two weeks, as optimism over improving U.S.-China trade relations damps demand for haven assets. The pound erased earlier gains, following two sessions of modest strengthening.

In commodities, crude oil climbed further above $61 a barrel in New York. Gold advanced back above $1,500 an ounce, having increased in every session this week.

Expected data include initial jobless claims and mortgage applications. No major company is reporting earnings

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.1% to 3,230.50
  • MXAP up 0.2% to 170.17
  • MXAPJ up 0.09% to 550.67
  • Nikkei up 0.6% to 23,924.92
  • Topix up 0.6% to 1,731.20
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.9% to 3,007.35
  • Sensex down 0.7% to 41,171.06
  • Kospi up 0.4% to 2,197.93
  • Brent Futures up 0.3% to $67.41/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.3% to $1,503.97
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.01% to 97.62

Top Overnight News

  • China’s policy makers will unveil a three-year action plan in early 2020 on the reform of state enterprises, with an aim to improve the performance of the sector and create world-class champions, according to state-owned newspapers
  • China’s imports of U.S. soybeans surge rose to the highest in almost two years after more American cargoes cleared customs ahead of the signing of a partial trade deal in January
  • Senator Lisa Murkowski of Alaska revealed the first public qualms with Mitch McConnell’s vow to coordinate with the White House on a quick impeachment trial for President Trump
  • China’s financial regulators are calling for more transparent and fair handling of defaults to restore investor confidence in the world’s second-largest bond market, after repayment failures hit a record high this year.
  • Turkey dug into its refusal to abandon its new Russian missile defense, saying it won’t bow to threat of crippling U.S. sanctions or trade the S-400s for an American system.
  • Pro- democracy demonstrations have been called for the afternoon of Boxing Day at shopping centers in Hong Kong after the territory descended into a flurry of tear gas and arrests as police clashed with protesters in neighborhoods around the city
  • Oil rose a third day as an industry report showed American inventories shrunk and as optimism over a partial U.S.-China trade deal grew

Top Asian News

  • Hong Kong’s Malls Targeted by Protesters During Christmas Break
  • China Plans New Push to Revamp State Firms Starting Next Year
  • BOJ Maintains Buying Ranges for All Bond Maturities for January
  • Abe, Kuroda Mount Pressure on Japanese Businesses to Lift Wages

Top European News

  • Turkey to Submit Libya Troop Motion to Parliament: Erdogan

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed. The British pound gained 0.1%. The euro was little changed at $1.1087. The Japanese yen weakened 0.2% to 109.58 per dollar. The onshore yuan depreciated 0.2% to 7.001 per dollar.

In commodities, West Texas Intermediate crude increased 0.3% to $61.28 a barrel. Gold gained 0.4% to $1,505.35 an ounce. Silver rose 1.3% to $18 per ounce.

US Event Calendar

  • 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, prior -5.0%
  • 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, est. 220,000, prior 234,000
  • 8:30am: Continuing Claims, est. 1.69m, prior 1.72m
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, prior 61.1

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)THURSDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 25.47 POINTS OR 0.85%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 42.20 POINTS OR 0.15%   /The Nikkei closed UP 142.05 POINTS OR 0.60%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 7.0007 /Oil UP TO 61.21 dollars per barrel for WTI and 67.39 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 7.0007 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.9971 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 C CHINA

CHINA

Capital leaving China at a record rate and that it will spell trouble for China shortly

(Mish Shedlock/Mishtalk)

Capital Flight: Money Leaving China At Record Rate

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,

China is fighting “abnormal” cash flows. It’s not surprising in the least.

Record Capital Flight

Please consider Money has been leaving China at a record rate. Beijing is battling to stem the tide

Money was leaving the country at a record clip earlier this year through unauthorized channels, according to analysts. That’s bad news for China, which needs to keep financial reserves high to maintain confidence in its markets.

The State Administration of Foreign Exchange, a key government regulator, said Sunday that its most important job next year is to prevent major financial risks, avoid “abnormal” capital flows across its borders and crack down on illegal trading activities.

“We need to fight a critical battle” to defuse financial risks and maintain market stability, SAFE said in an statement. The pledge was an unusually strong one for the agency, which deployed the kind of military language more often used by top leaders in China.

Crackdown

  • The agency has already started cracking down on capital flight. In November, it fined Chinabank Payments $4.2 million — one of the largest-ever fines SAFE has imposed — for moving money overseas.
  • Major corporations aren’t the only ones linked to the flight of money out of China. Earlier this month, a Bank of China (BACHF) customer took out $50,000 in cash from his bank account over the course of a week. SAFE fined the bank nearly $6,000 for breaking a government rule limiting how much foreign currency people can take out of their accounts within a short period of time.

Serious Concern

You know it’s serious when a county with a $13+ trillion GDP is overly concerned over $50,000.

Why the Flight?

Investors fear another devaluation. And that’s a reasonable fear. State Owned Enterprises (SOEs) are imploding with unpayable debt.

And anyone with an ounce of common sense knows China’s GDP is grossly overstated.

For discussion, please see How Badly Overstated is Chinese and US GDP?

Currency Irony

Despite the fact that pressures on the yuan are negative, and for good reason, on August 5, US Treasury Declares China a Currency Manipulator Under Orders From Trump.

What a hoot.

If China floated the yuan and allowed free movement of money, the yuan could easily crash.

Impossible Trinity

This brings us to the “Impossible Trinity”

Michael Pettis@michaelxpettis

The problem with capital outflows lies in the so-called “impossible trinity”: a country with open capital markets can choose to have a fixed exchange rate or independent monetary policy, but not both. Although China’s soaring debt requires monetary…https://www.cnn.com/2019/12/19/business/china-capital-flight-trade-war-us/index.html 

Money has been leaving China at a record rate. Beijing is battling to stem the tide

Beijing is stepping up the battle to stop money flowing out of China as the country contends with economic woes and trade war tensions that have eased but show no sign of ending altogether.

cnn.com

“The problem with capital outflows lies in the so-called impossible trinity: a country with open capital markets can choose to have a fixed exchange rate or independent monetary policy, but not both.”

“As debt continues to rise, these inconsistencies become more extreme, so what can Beijing do? It turns out that the only way to maintain the exchange rate while increasing control of domestic monetary policy is to increase capital controls.”

Trinity Plus – Quadrality

 

China wants to do at least four things at once.

China has artificial GDP goals to meet. The more it tries to meet those goals, the more bad debt it will create.

Thus, it’s is not even a “Trinity”.

And the more bad debt China creates, the more capital flight pressure rises.

Quadrality and Beyond

China wants a stronger Yuan, more debt, 6% GDP, corporate writeoffs, lower interest rates, less support for GSEs, and capital controls.

Did I leave anything out? So, what’s it going to be?

And who has the correct word for all that?

Send Help!

end

HONG KONG
third day in a row for protests as Carrie Lam blames the rioters for “ruining” Christmas
(zerohedge)

Hong Kong Malls Rocked By Third Day Of Protests As Lam Blames “Rioters” For “Ruining” Christmas

Hong Kong police are moving to shut down an important source of funding for the city’s pro-Democracy movement that has kept protesters on the front lines out of bondage. The crackdown has led to doubts about the future of the protest movement, since organizers’ ability to match funds, food and shelter with “professional” protesters who require all of those things to remain on the front lines, has been critical to the movement’s longevity.

But on the streets, a dedicated core of demonstrators continue to disrupt daily life in Hong Kong’s centers of industry and commerce.

Bloomberg reports that crowds of protesters flooded the city’s shopping malls on Thursday for the Boxing Day holiday in a third-straight day of protests.

Pro-democracy protesters gathered in the afternoon of Boxing Day at shopping centers. Dozens of black-clad demonstrators were roaming around at Sogo department store in Causeway Bay chanting slogans while riot police stopped and searched people in Mong Kok and Tsim Sha Tsui, according to Radio Television Hong Kong. The protesters are hoping to attract attention to their cause by forcing malls and stores to close.

According to Reuters, the number of protesters who turned out on Thursday was lower than the previous two days.

In a reflection of the reason for the Christmas holiday season, protesters have been gathering at malls and shopping centers for the past few days, forcing numerous confrontations with police. Hundreds of protesters dressed in the traditional all-black uniform of the pro-democracy movement flooded the malls and shopping centers on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. Some wore antlers in what appeared to be an ironic commentary.

Bloomberg blamed the unrest for capping off an “abysmal” six-month stretch for Hong Kong retailers, who have suffered through a double-digit drop in sales as the protests have scared off the tourists and visitors from the mainland.

Protests are expected to continue into the New Year, with no end in sight (unless Carrie Lam’s government bends to their five demands, which doesn’t seem likely). Lam has reportedly said she would resign if Beijing would allow it, but it seems President Xi is insistent that Lam clean up the mess she helped create.

For her part, Lam mostly whined about how the protesters “ruined” her holiday. But after the year she has had, we couldn’t think of anything more appropriate.

“Many members of the public and tourists coming to Hong Kong were naturally disappointed that their Christmas Eve celebrations have been ruined by a group of reckless and selfish rioters,” Lam said in a Facebook post on Christmas Day.

In a separate statement on Thursday, the government criticized “unprecedented violence” and vandalism committed by some protesters, and insisted that defending human rights remained a top priority.

Protesters, meanwhile, accused the police of unnecessary violence and brutality, and for conducting body searches without any legal cause. Police accused the protesters of “vandalism” and tried to disperse them using pepper spray and batons, as well as water cannons once the protesters had been forced out of the malls and back into the streets. Protesters blocked several roads in central Hong Kong, and have also been blamed for destroying a bank branch. Petrol bombs were thrown, and more than 100 people have been arrested already.

Unlike in mainland China, Christmas is celebrated as a public holiday, even though just 12% of the population identifies as Christian. Still, the influence of the city’s British colonial heritage is being celebrated now more than ever.

 

According to CNN, one protester was hospitalized with moderate injuries after falling several feet after a failed attempt at running from the cops.

Hong Kong Watch, a UK-based non- governmental organization, accused the force of committing “truly outrageous police brutality” on Christmas Eve.

If previous protest movements have shown us anything, it’s that the youth of Hong Kong won’t be easily pacified.

The movement began in June in response to the government’s attempt to fast-track an extradition bill that would have opened up Hong Kongers (and anybody just passing through) to prosecution in mainland courts. The bill was eventually scrapped, but the government was slow to act, and by the time the bill was abandoned, the movement had morphed into a broader pro-democracy coalition with a list of demands that Beijing would seemingly never accept.

end

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

 

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

IRAN

Iran again blocks the internet for its citizens.  Funerals are being held for those killed in the protesting movement and Iran is trying to head off any future protests.

(zerohedge)

Iran Again Blocks Internet & Mobile Service Ahead Of Protesters’ Funerals 

Fearing the potential for renewed protests and violent clashes with police, Iran has again blocked internet and mobile access to broad section of the country on Wednesday.

This as several funerals will be held over the coming days for protesters killed last month amid a severe government crackdown, which also witness an unprecedented nationwide internet blockage which lasted for a week or more in some provinces.

Citing Iranian state media, Bloomberg reports, “The mourning services are scheduled to begin on Thursday. The independent Shargh newspaper said five unidentified provinces will be subject to the blackout, while ILNA said internet users in those areas will have access to a limited number of state-approved Iran websites and applications.”

 

Protesters last month torched gas stations and banks, angry at a sudden massive gas price hike, which turned anti-government, via The Guardian. 

Government authorities are reportedly acting in response to relatives of some among the killed who have posted to social media calling for renewed protests to be held on Thursday in conjunction with ceremonies commemorating the victims (various estimates put those killed from the November protests ranging from 200 to over 300, with the US State Dept. claiming multiple times that number).

The US as well as various human rights organizations have accused Tehran authorities of quelling protests — initially sparked by a huge gas price hike when subsidies were slashed — with live ammunition and other brutal tactics.

Thus it appears the government is making a move to prevent large-scale protests before they gain momentum. State-run ILNA said of the mobile and internet blockage: “According to this source, it is possible that more provinces will be affected by the shutdown of mobile international connectivity,” after it appeared to spread on Wednesday.

NetBlocks.org

@netblocks

Confirmed: Evidence of mobile internet disruption in parts of beginning ~6:30 a.m. (03:00 UTC); real-time network data show two distinct drops in connectivity this morning amid reports of regional outages; incident ongoing 📉

📰https://netblocks.org/reports/partial-internet-disruption-registered-in-iran-oAvqX18Y 

View image on Twitter

And internet blockage observatory NetBlocks said, according to Reuters: “Confirmed: Evidence of mobile internet disruption in parts of #Iran …real-time network data show two distinct drops in connectivity this morning amid reports of regional outages; incident ongoing.”

Washington has condemned such attempts to dramatically restrict communications; however, Iran’s leadership has said it is taking efforts to thwart external US-Saudi-Israeli regime change efforts to hijack and guide the protests.

END
TURKEY/USA/NATO
Turkey is using its muscle as they balk at USA sanctions threat.  It warns that it may evict USA forces from Incirlik, which houses the 2nd highest amount of NATO forces after Germany.
So far, Trump is not willing to combat Erdogan
(zerohedge)

“Like Watching A Car Crash In Slow Motion”: Turkey Balks At US Sanction Threat, Warns It May Evict US Forces From Military Bases

Despite mounting political and diplomatic pressure by the US and its NATO allies, Turkey has again balked at US attempts of intimidation and dug into its refusal to abandon a new Russian missile defense, saying it won’t bow to the threat of crippling US sanctions or trade the S-400s for an American system.

“They said they would not sell Patriots unless we get rid of the S-400s. It is out of question for us to accept such a precondition,” said Ibrahim Kalin, a spokesman for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, late on Tuesday after a cabinet meeting, quoted by Bloomberg.

 

Parts of Russian S-400 defense system unloaded from a Russian plane at Murted Airport near Ankara in August; Photo: Turkish Defense Ministry

“An irrational anti-Turkish sentiment has prevailed in the Congress and it is not good for Turkish-American relations,” Kalin added, noting that Congress “should know that such language of threat would push Turkey exactly toward places that they don’t want it turn to.” Namely, right into the hands of Vladimir Putin, who is on even better terms with Erdogan than Trump, despite Turkey taking down a Russian fighter jet over its territory several years back.

Separately, as the WSJ reported this morning, Erdogan once again warned that he would evict U.S. forces from two military bases in his country if Washington imposes new sanctions on his government, creating a bitter quandary for NATO as it seeks to cope with Ankara’s deepening ties to Russia.

In a television interview this month, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said if the U.S. punishes Turkey for its purchase of a Russian air-defense system, then, “if necessary, we may close Incirlik and Kureci,” installations where the U.S. keeps approximately 50 B61 nuclear weapons, and operates critical radar.

Erdogan’s declaration elicited an anxious reaction from U.S. Defense Secretary Mark Esper, who said it raised questions about Turkey’s dedication to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization: “They have that inherent right to house or to not house NATO bases or foreign troops,” Esper said. “But again, I think this becomes an alliance matter, your commitment to the alliance, if indeed they are serious about what they are saying.”

“It feels like watching a car crash in slow motion,” a Western diplomat in Turkey told the WSJ.

The main bone of contention is Turkey’s purchase of the S-400 system, which the Pentagon views as a security threat to NATO. The U.S. has suspended deliveries of the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter to Turkey and excluded Turkish aerospace companies from a contract to supply fuselage and other parts, saying Russia could use the system’s radar to spy on and assess the stealthy aircraft’s capabilities.

As has been duly covered here for the past two years, US Congress has been pushing for sanctions against Turkey, which has NATO’s second biggest standing army after the US, over the country’s purchase of the Russian S-400 despite the objection of President Donald Trump, who has developed a particularly close relationship with Turkey’s Erdogan in the past year, and who says such a move could drive Turkey closer to Moscow.

And just to make sure Congress is really furious, Turkey intends to purchase a second Russian S-400 battery and pursue a joint-development agreement with Moscow in order to be able to produce its own sophisticated ballistic missiles, a move that will spark chaos among NATO member nations; as a reminder, NATO only exists to feed the US military-industrial complex with organic customers for advanced weapon systems. By using Russia for its most advanced military needs, Turkey has taken that old maxim and flipped it on its head.

The Trump administration has sought to cajole Erdogan in a bid to prevent Ankara from knitting closer ties with Moscow amid concerns that treating him like a pariah would push Turkey further into Russia’s orbit, U.S. officials said. But Trump has had to contend with angry U.S. lawmakers, who have voted through a string of bills aimed at punishing Turkey.

The US president has so far refrained from using a piece of legislation that allows the U.S. president to slap sanctions on any country that makes a sizable arms purchase from Russia. But a Senate committee recently approved a bill that would enforce the legislation, which could freeze Turkish assets in the U.S., restrict visas and limit access to credit.

In response to growing Western anger, Turkish officials proposed setting up an expert committee with the U.S., or under NATO supervision, to look into the S-400 issue and propose remedies. But US officials told the WSJ, Washington would rather pay substantial compensation than deliver a single F-35 to Turkey and jeopardize the integrity of the multibillion-dollar program.

Highlighting the impasse, Turkey carried out a test of the S-400 system, deployed at an airbase near Ankara, against U.S.-made F-16 jets in late November, and it said it might order Russian combat aircraft if the F-35 delivery ban wasn’t lifted.

“Turkish national-security interests must be regarded as one of the primary issues for the U.S. and NATO,” said Ahmet Berat Conkar, a Turkish lawmaker affiliated with Mr. Erdogan’s ruling AK Party, and the deputy head of Turkey’s delegation to the NATO Parliamentary Assembly. “If this cannot be openly guaranteed and maintained by concrete action for Turkey, new cracks may open inside the NATO alliance.”

The biggest irony is that in effecting its de facto breach from NATO, Turkey is also exposing the hypocrisy that runs through the heart of the military alliance. As the Journal notes, “some European allies bristle that NATO uses language similar to Turkey’s, which says that its invasion of northern Syria is for national security interests, and voice concerns that the West’s alliance gave Turkey too much leeway to expand its military partnership with Russia.”

Turkey, which is already coordinating with Russia in northern Syria, is now also seeking to cooperate with Russia in war-torn Libya.

“Turkey is playing a showdown and it is winning,” a senior European diplomat at NATO said.

It is indeed, and the only recourse the West has is to slap crippling sanctions on its economy in hopes of forcing Erdogan to realign his attitude. As Bloomberg reminds us, the last time the U.S. sanctioned Turkey last summery, to pressure it to release a detained U.S. pastor, the lira crashed and sent the Turkish economy into a recession from which it is still recovering.

END
ISRAEL/IRAN/IRAQ/LEBANON/GAZA/HEZBOLLAH
Israel outlines its strategy for its upcoming war against Iran and its allies.  Israel cannot afford to see weapons move into Iraq from Iran.
(zerohedge)

Israel’s Military Chief Outlines Strategy For “Coming War” With Iran & Its Allies

Via AlMasdarNews.com,

The Chief-of-Staff for the Israeli Armed Forces, Aviv Kochavi, said on Wednesday that Israel cannot allow Iran to station militarily in Iraq. According to Ynet News, Kochavi stated on the seventh anniversary of the death of the former Chief-of-Staff, Amnon Lipkin Shahak, that the Israeli army would never allow Iran to be stationed in Iraq.

“The Quds Force of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards in Iraq… transfer advanced weapons there monthly. We cannot leave this situation without interference,” he said.

 

File image: Iranian Revolutionary Guard members attend a ceremony in Tehran.

Furthermore Kochavi said that “there is an opportunity in the Gaza Strip, after the results of the ‘Black Belt’ operation, to develop a secure reality and make it more stable.”

“In the coming war, we will have to attack with great force in populated areas and also target the state structure or the entity that allows terrorism to act against us,” Kochavi continued.

The Israeli military official said that “in the coming war with Lebanon or with Hamas, the internal front in Israel will be subject to major rocket attacks, most of which are inaccurate, but will have an impact,” adding that “Israel will target everything that helps in combat operations, such as electricity, fuel, bridges, if the state of Lebanon, Syria or Hamas and others allow terrorism from its lands to be used against us.”

 

 

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and IDF Chief of Staff Aviv Kochavi (right), via Ynet News.

Israel has accused Iran of transferring long-range weapons and missiles to Iraq, and from there to Syria and Hezbollah in Lebanon.

The Popular Mobilization Units (Hashd Al-Shaabi) came under attack in July after a suspected Israeli drone carried out a devastating assault on a base in the Salaheddine Governorate.

END

6.Global Issues

BALTIC DRY INDEX/GLOBAL SHIPPING

The Baltic Dry index is a very important index telling us the movement of dry goods (ex oil) throughout the world.  It has tumbled the most since 2008

(zerohedge)

Baltic Dry Tumbles Most Since 2008 As Tariff-Frontrunning Fades

The Baltic Exchange’s main sea freight index has plunged to its lowest levels in six months as world trade continues to fade amid signs the so-called “front-loading” effect ahead of tariff deadlines is starting to wane.

Chinese firms and US importers rushed to ship goods to the US through Q1 to Sept. as the US and China were engaged in a tit-for-tat trade war. The implementation of tariffs by both countries on billions of dollars in goods forced importers and exporters to increase outbound and inbound delivers before tariff deadlines went into effect.

As a result of trade policy change, demand for bulk carriers increased throughout the year, raising the Baltic index +318% from Jan. to Sept.

Trade war sentiment improved into Sept. and into Q4 with a phase one deal between both countries — tariff front-loading declined late into year driving demand lower for bulk carriers.

Historically, The Baltic Dry Index has weakened (seasonally) from May through August, but as the chart below makes clear, this year saw the exact opposite as the ‘front-running’ sparked an optically-bullish surge in demand for shipping (ahead of the expected tariff rises that would eventually not come to pass).

The index has since tumbled the most since 2008.

Along with front-loading in decline, reduced seasonal trends has also drug down demand for bulk carriers leading to lower rates across all vessel segments.

Reuters breaks down the latest shipping report that saw weakness for all capesize, panamax and supramax vessels that haul bulk commodities:

  • The Baltic index .BADI, which tracks rates for capesize, panamax and supramax vessels that ferry dry bulk commodities, fell 20 points, or 1.8%, to 1,103, its lowest since June 17.
  • The main index was down for a fourteenth-straight session.
  • The capesize index .BACI dipped 4 points, to 1,954 — its lowest in more than six months.
  • Average daily earnings for capesizes, which typically transport 170,000-180,000 tonne cargoes including iron ore and coal, slid $85 to $14,366.
  • The panamax index .BPNI dropped 47 points, or 3.9%, to 1,154, its lowest since Nov. 27.
  • Average daily earnings for panamaxes, which usually carry coal or grain cargoes of about 60,000 tonnes to 70,000 tonnes, decreased $384 to $9,228.
  • The supramax index .BSIS fell 15 points to 728.

Scanning global dry bulk shipping lanes across the world. We find depressing rates into the late-year that suggests a massive rebound in the global economy might not be imminent as many on Wall Street are predicting.

Brazil to China dry bulk rates for iron ore have seen rates nearly halved since peaking in Sept.

The US to China dry bulk rates for soybeans have also tumbled into the late year.

And even though Brazil and China have signed a recent soybean trade deal and ramped up shipments — rates between both countries continue to slip for the fourth month.

With the US economy continuing to decelerate and a manufacturing recession deepening — shipping rates prematurely jumped earlier in the year on artificial demand via front-loading but it seems that the shipping industry is catching down to the reality that not just the US economy is trouble but the rest of the world is entering a new era of low-growth.

So what does that mean for stocks?

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings THURSDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.0897 DOWN .0008 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /MIXED

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 109.53 UP 0.222 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2970   DOWN   0.0001  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/BREXIT EXTENDED TO OCT 31/2019//

USA/CAN 1.3156 UP .0001 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  THURSDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL BY 8 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1219 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 25.47 POINTS OR 0.85% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 42.20 POINTS OR 0.15%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED // EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL MIXED

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL MIXED 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 42.20 POINTS OR 0.15%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 25.47 POINTS OR 0.85%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED 

 

 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 142.05  POINTS OR 0.60%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1506.25

silver:$17.97-

Early MONDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 1.91% !!! UP 1 IN POINTS from TUESDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 2.34 UP 1  IN BASIS POINTS from TUESDAY night.

USA dollar index early MONDAY morning: 97.65 UP 5 CENT(S) from  TUESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers THURSDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing THURSDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.42% DOWN 0 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.01%  DOWN 1   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.44%//DOWN 0 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:1,43 DOWN 0 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 99 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.24% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.67% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR THURSDAY

Closing currency crosses for THURSDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1101  DOWN     .0007 or 7 basis points

USA/Japan: 109.67 UP .297 OR YEN DOWN 30  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.30040 UP .0033 POUND UP 33  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar UP 28 basis points to 1.3127

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 6.9965    ON SHORE  (DOWN)..

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.9918  (YUAN DOWN)..

 

TURKISH LIRA:  5.9340 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.01%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 2 IN basis points from TUESDAY at 1.92 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.35 UP 2 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 97.56 UP 6  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for TUESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 8.77 OR  0.21%

German Dax :  CLOSED

 

Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 06 POINTS or 0.01%

Italian MIB: CLOSED

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 51.65 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 67.80 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE FALLS:    62.13  THE CROSS HIGHER BY 0.32 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE LOWER BY 32 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.24 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  61.65//

 

 

BRENT :  67.80

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 1.92//PLUS TWO BASIS PTS…

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.35..PLUS TWO BASIS PTS…

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.1101 ( UP 7   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:109.67 UP ..297 (YEN DOWN 30 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 97.56 DOWN 6 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.30030 UP 33  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 5.9340

 

 

the Russian rouble 62.13   DOWN 0.32 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( DOWN 32 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3127 UP 28 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) : 6.9965  ON SHORE

 

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 6.9918 (OFFSHORE)

 

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.24%

 

The Dow closed UP 106.21 POINTS OR 0.37%

 

NASDAQ closed UP 69.51 POINTS OR 0.78%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  12.61 CLOSED DOW  .06

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 1.96%//libor RISING 

 

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

Boxing Day Bid For Bitcoin, Bonds, & Bullion As Nasdaq Soars

With most of Europe closed, celebrating Boxing Day…

US Small Caps lagged today as Nasdaq was the day’s big winner (again)

 

Nasdaq completed its 11th consecutive rally day today – the longest such streak since July 2009

Breaking above 9,000 for the first time ever (up 18 of the last 23 days)…

Source: Bloomberg

As Nasdaq dipped back towards 9,000 in the last few minutes, AAPL was ramped once again to rescue it with ‘ye olde 330 Ramp’…

The Nasdaq is back to pre-dotcom-crash levels relative to the S&P 500…

Source: Bloomberg

US Cyclicals outperformed today…

Source: Bloomberg

Shorts were squeezed out of the gate but faded the rest of the day, having run out of ammo to support Small Caps…

Source: Bloomberg

Chinese stocks were higher overnight, extending gains from Xmas Day…

Source: Bloomberg

Bonds were bid today after a strong auction…

Source: Bloomberg

And 10Y yield was back below 1.90…

Source: Bloomberg

And Bullion extended its recent gains…

Gold is also having a banner year, up almost 18% in 2019 so far…

 

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin spiked today after resting for Christmas Day…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar slipped lower today, back in the red YTD…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, “Extreme Greed” went to 11 today (well a new cycle high of 93)…

“probably nothing”

END

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

Nasdaq Hits 9,000 For First Time Ever – Up 11 Days In A Row

The Nasdaq Composite is now up for the 11th day in a row and just topped 9,000 for the first time ever…

This is the longest streak of gains since July 2009.

 

 

ii)Market data/USA

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

Skyrm vs Pozsar

who will be right.

Today, a third unsubscribed turn repo . However Repo rate rises from 1.54 to 1.6%.  Still too early to tell if we will have a balance sheet problem Dec 31

(zerohedge)

Repo Crisis Averted With Third “Undersubscribed” Turn Repo

It seems that the year-end repocalypse that Credit Suisse’s repo market guru Zoltan Pozsar predicted exactly two weeks ago, is not going to happen this year after all, and all it took was a “bigger than QE4” $500 billion liquidity injection/backstop by the Fed.

Today’s “turn” Term Repo which matures on January 9 saw only $18BN in security submissions ($8.25BN in TSYs, $9.75BN in MBS), below the $35BN in total availability.

As such, this was the third term repo since the start of the Fed’s emergency repo program that covered the year-end “turn” that was not fully overalotted.  As shown in the chart below, the first four “turn” term repos were all oversubscribed (boxed in red), while today’s was the second “turn” repo that saw a less than full allotment.

As such, it now appears that banks have reached their fill of what they believe will be sufficient year-end liquidity, and all subsequent “turn” repos will likely see a lower allotment as the Fed’s $500BN liquidity backstop bazooka ends up being underutilized, if not by much.

In his latest comment on the repo market, Curvature’s Scott Skyrm noted that “once the term RP operations switch to being undersubscribed, it either means most of the Street’s year-end funding need is fulfilled, or banks are close to their balance sheet limits.” His full comment below:

The Fed took out the bazooka last Thursday and proposed to flood the Repo market with liquidity. If needed. That’s the catch. The Primary Dealers might not take all of the cash the Fed is offering. Either they won’t need it or they won’t want it. So there are two scenarios as we get close to the end of the month. Either Primary Dealer banks do not take all of the Fed cash because their balance sheets are full or because they don’t need the cash. Wrightson estimates that only $300 billion to $350 billion* of the ~$500 billion will be taken by the Primary Dealers. We can see whether the Fed RP ops are oversubscribed or undersubscribed by watching the results. Back on November 25, the $25 billion term RP operation to January 6 was oversubscribed by $24 billion. The $50 billion operation to January 17 on Monday was only oversubscribed by $4.25 billion. Once the term RP operations switch to being undersubscribed, it either means most of the Street’s year-end funding need is fulfilled, or banks are close to their balance sheet limits.

This means that today’s repo is either good news, or bad news: good news if banks don’t need any additional liquidity for year end, but bad news if they are simply prevented from seeking more Fed reserves due to balance sheet limitations (and how many securities they can pledge), even as the overall funding in the repo market remains insufficient.

As usual, keep a track on the overnight repo rate for confirmation if things are getting better or worse. Incidentally, today the rate picked up modestly to 1.60% from 1.54%...

… which suggests that all else equal, the tempest in the repo market – and the Fed’s expansion of QE4 as Pozsar predicted – may not happen after all.

Meanwhile, despite the lack of oversubscribed repo for two operations in a row, repo doomsayer Pozsar refuses to throw in the towel and in an interview posted by Bloomberg on Friday, the Credit Suisse analyst said “it’s not over” yet, saying that “if the year-end is less of a problem because of the repo bazooka we got from the Fed, and if the message of my report played a part in getting that bazooka, then that’s a nice way to be proven wrong.” However, he then added ominously that now we’re getting into a point in the year when balance-sheet problems are going to flare up, and I think the system will get gummed up again.

In other words, the world’s foremost repo expert expects more fireworks in the coming week.

He has just a handful of days in which to be proven right: there is one more term repos in 2019 on Dec 30. Absent some crisis on or around those days, it appears that the Fed managed to avoid the repo doomsday that Pozsar predicted two weeks ago.

end

iv) Swamp commentaries)

Alan Dershowitz commented on whether Trump has been impeached. Judging by the case in Nixon vs the USA the Senate does not need the transmittal of documents to proceed with the case

 

(Alan Dershowitz)

Democrats Debate Whether Trump Has Been Impeached

Authored by Alan Dershowitz via The Gatestone Institute,

Speaker Pelosi’s unconstitutional decision to delay transmission of the articles of impeachment to the Senate in order to gain partisan advantage raises the following question: has President Trump been impeached, or did the House vote merely represent an authorization or intention to impeach — which becomes an actual impeachment only when the articles are transmitted?

This highly technical constitutional issue is being debated by two of my former Harvard Law School colleagues — Professors Laurence Tribe and Noah Feldman — both liberal Democrats who support President Trump’s impeachment.

Tribe believes that Trump has been impeached and that it would be perfectly proper to leave it at that: by declining to transmit the articles of impeachment, the Democrats get a win-win. President Trump remains impeached but he gets no opportunity to be tried and acquitted by the Senate. This cynical, partisan ploy is acceptable to Tribe because it brings about the partisan result he prefers: Trump bears forever the stigma of impeachment without having the opportunity to challenge that stigma by a Senate acquittal. Under the Tribe scenario, the House Democrats get to “obstruct” the Senate and “abuse” their power (to borrow terms from the articles of impeachment).

Feldman disagrees with Tribe, arguing — quite correctly — that impeachment and a removal trial go together. If a president is impeached, he must be tried. Impeachment, in his view, is not merely a vote; it is the first step in a constitutionally mandated two-step process. He goes so far as to say that if the articles of impeachment are not forwarded to the Senate for trial, there has been no valid impeachment.

In my opinion, both of my colleagues are wrong, though Feldman’s approach is more consistent with the structure of the Constitution and the intent of its Framers. I believe that the Senate need not wait for articles of impeachment to be transmitted. Senators are empowered by the constitution to begin a trial now— with or without further action by the House.

Just as the House has the “sole power of impeachment,” so too the Senate has the “sole power to try all impeachments.” The Senate can make its own rules (as long as they are consistent with the constitution) and establish its own timetables.

The only possible rejoinder to this constitutional verity is the argument put forward by Feldman that the House has not yet concluded the process of impeachment, and so the Senate has no jurisdiction to proceed to trial. What follows from that argument is the conclusion — utterly unacceptable to Tribe — that President Trump has not been impeached and if the articles are never transmitted he will not go down in history as the third president to be impeached, because the House never completed the necessary process by sending the articles to the senate.

Tribe and the Democratic House majority, led by Speaker Pelosi, want to have their constitutional cake and eat it too: they want Trump impeached but not acquitted. Sorry, but the Constitution does not permit that partisan, result-oriented ploy. Either Trump has been impeached and is entitled to a Senate trial; or he has not been impeached and is entitled to a clean slate.

My own view is that in the public eye, President Trump has been impeached by a partisan vote and he is now entitled to be acquitted, even if the Senate vote is as partisan as the House vote. The partisans who voted his impeachment along party lines in the House, have no principled argument against a party-line acquittal. The Democrats devised the partisan rules of engagement in the House. They can’t suddenly demand a change in those rules because they are a minority in the Senate.

So there are only two constitutionally viable alternatives:

  1. either Pelosi must announce that Trump has not been impeached;
  2. or the Senate must initiate a trial.

Preserving the status quo indefinitely – Trump remaining impeached without having a trial – is unconstitutional and should not be tolerated by the American people.

end

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

China’s imports of U.S. soybeans rose to the highest in 20 months in November

China’s inbound shipments from the U.S. surged to 2.6 million tons, the highest since March 2018, and up from about 1.1 million tons in October. China imported almost no U.S. soybeans in November last year, customs data show…

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-12-25/china-imports-of-u-s-soy-surges-to-highest-in-about-2-years

China Food Price Inflation Tracker, monthly  [This is a prescription for social unrest.]

Trading Economics: The politically sensitive food inflation rate in China rose to 19.1 percent year-on-year in November 2019, the highest since May 2008, from 15.5 percent in October. Pork prices, the most popular meat in the country, jumped 110.2 percent (vs 101.3 percent in October) as hogs have been severely reduced due to the African Swine Fever since last year…  https://tradingeconomics.com/china/food-inflation

No Articles of Impeachment or a Trial Are Required For the Senate to Acquit President Trump

The United States Supreme Court – in a 9-0 holding – unequivocally ruled that no trial is required for the Senate to acquit, or convict, anyone impeached by the House of Representatives.  Even liberal Justices Stevens and Souter concurred in the ironclad judgment.  The case is Nixon v. United States, 506 U.S. 224 (1993)…  Formal transmission of the articles is not required by the Constitution for there to be an impeachment… [Judge Walter] Nixon demanded a full trial before the entire Senate.  He did not get one.  He lost and was removed.  The Supreme Court held that it did not have the power to review the Senate’s conduct… Impeachment is a political event…

https://www.thepostemail.com/2019/12/22/scotus-no-articles-of-impeachment-or-a-trial-are-required-for-the-senate-to-acquit-president-trump/

Reuters: Presidential candidate Michael Bloomberg says his campaign has been unknowingly using prison workers to make telephone calls on his behalf; they have since ended their relationship with the company responsible for the calls

Washington Post subtly admits slain Khashoggi columns were ‘shaped’ by Qatar

“Text messages between Khashoggi and an executive at Qatar Foundation International show that the executive, Maggie Mitchell Salem, at times shaped the columns he submitted to The Washington Post, proposing topics, drafting material and prodding him to take a harder line against the Saudi government,” a statement in the article read…   https://www.arabnews.com/node/1424721/media

Well that is all for today

I will see you Friday night.

 

 

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