JAN 29//GOP STATES THAT THEY HAVE ENOUGH VOTES TO STOP WITNESSES AND VOTE FOR ACQUITTAL OF TRUMP: POWELL ANNOUNCES MORE REPO OPERATIONS UNTIL AT LEAST APRIL//GOLD UP $.40 TO $1571.40//SILVER UP 2 CENTS TO $17.51//HALF OF ALL STARBUCK STORES CLOSED DUE TO CORONAVIRUS//ISRAEL TO ANNEX PARTS OF THE WEST BANK AS PART OF TRUMP’S DEAL OF THE CENTURY//YEMEN’S HOUTHIS LAUNCH MISSILE ATTACK ON SAUDI REFINERS AND MISSED//USA SHIP ON FIRE OFF THE COAST OF UAE//COPPER PLUNGES//MORE SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT///

GOLD:$1571,40  UP $0.40    (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

 

 

 

 

 

Silver:$17.51  UP 2 CENTS  (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

 

 

 

Closing access prices:

Gold :  $1576.90

 

silver:  $17.54

 

YESTERDAY IS COMEX OPTIONS EXPIRY AND WE NOW AWAIT FRIDAY WHICH IS OTC/LONDON LBA OPTIONS EXPIRY. GOLD AND SILVER ARE QUITE RESILIENT ESPECIALLY WHEN WE DO NOT HAVE CHINA ( NEW YEAR AND CORONAVIRUS). WATCH FOR THE BANKS TO WHACK TOMORROW OR FRIDAY

 

 

 

COMEX DATA

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING: 0/3

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: JANUARY 2020 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,569.200000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 01/28/2020 DELIVERY DATE: 01/30/2020
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
737 C ADVANTAGE 3 2
905 C ADM 1
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 3 3
MONTH TO DATE: 2,709

we are coming very close to a commercial failure!!

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  JAN CONTRACT: 3 NOTICE(S) FOR 300 OZ (0.00933 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  2709 NOTICES FOR 270900 OZ  (8.4261 TONNES)

 

 

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR JAN

 

 

10 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 50,000  OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month: 1005 for  5,025,000 oz

 

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE :  $ 9285 DOWN $85

 

 

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $ 9413 UP 25

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

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IN SILVER THE COMEX OI FELL A STRONG SIZED 6152 CONTRACTS FROM 238,085 DOWN TO 231,933 WITH OUR HUGE 59 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX.

 

TODAY WE ARRIVED FURTHER FROM AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A  GIGANTIC  SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:,

; FEB 0; MARCH:  5429 AND MAY: 0 AND JULY: 0 ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  5492 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 5492 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 5492 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 27.460 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 59 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

7.32     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

2.630     MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOV.

20.970   MILLION OZ  FINAL STANDING IN DEC

5.025     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN JAN

 

TUESDAY, AGAIN OUR CROOKS USED COPIOUS PAPER IN ORDER TO CONTAIN SILVER’S PRICE…AND THEY WERE  SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL 59 CENTS) WITH THEIR ORCHESTRATED RAID.. AND, OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS  WERE  SUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE  SOME SILVER LONGS AS THE TOTAL LOSS IN OI ON BOTH EXCHANGES TOTALED 723 CONTRACTS. OR 3.615 MILLION OZ…..

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF JAN:

28,529 CONTRACTS (FOR 19 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 28,529 CONTRACTS) OR 142.64 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1501 CONTRACTS OR 7.507 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF JAN: 142.64 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 20.38% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

 

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2020 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          142.64 MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2020 EFP TOTALS SO FAR: 142.64 MILLION OZ

 

 

RESULT: WE HAD A GIGANTIC SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 6152, WITH THE 59 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /TUESDAY… THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A VERY  HUGE SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 5429 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA)

TODAY WE LOST A SMALL SIZED  SIZED: 723 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 

i.e 5429 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH DECREASE OF 6152 OI COMEX CONTRACTS.AND ALL OF THIS LACK OF DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 59 CENT LOSS IN PRICE OF SILVER AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $17.49 // TUESDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY!! 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.182 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 169% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT JAN MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 10 NOTICE(S) FOR  50,000 OZ OF SILVER.

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018. AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.70

 

.

 

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 10.025 MILLION OZ/ SEPT 43.030 MILLION OZ//OCT: 7.665 MILLION OZ//   NOV: 2.630 MILLION OZ//DEC:  20.970 MILLION OZ; JAN: 5.025,000  OZ
  2.  THE  RECORD WAS SET IN AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78//.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

 

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 

GOLD

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A HUGE SIZED 33,919 CONTRACTS TO 715,539 AND MOVING AWAY FROM OUR  NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE HUGE FALL IN COMEX OI OCCURRED WITH OUR LOSS OF $6.70 IN PRICING ACCOMPANYING COMEX GOLD TRADING// TUESDAY//  PARALLELING MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHEREBY ALMOST ALL OF THE LOSS AT THE COMEX WAS DUE TO SPREADER LIQUIDATION..A TOTAL CRIMINAL OPERATION AS IT HAS NO LEGITIMATE FUNCTION. WE WILL HAVE TO ENDURE THIS NONSENSE UNTIL FRIDAY. 

 

 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED GOOD SIZED 6332 CONTRACTS:

JAN 2020: 0 CONTRACTS, FEB>  4952 CONTRACTS; MARCH 00 APRIL: 424; JUNE. 956 AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 715,539,.  ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A HUGE SIZED LOSS IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 27,587 CONTRACTS: 33,919 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX  AND 6,332 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI LOSS OF 27,587 CONTRACTS OR 2,758,700 OZ OR 85.81 TONNES.  TUESDAY WE HAD A STRONG LOSS OF $6.70 IN GOLD TRADING…WITH OUR BANKER RAID.

AND WITH THAT LOSS IN  PRICE, WE  HAD A HUGE LOSS IN GOLD TONNAGE OF 85.81  TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS/OFFICIAL SECTOR WERE SUPPLYING INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER WITH RECKLESS ABANDON. THE BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE (DOWN $6.70)THEY WERE SOMEWHAT SUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO  FLEECE  GOLD LONGS FROM THE GOLD ARENA AS ALMOST ALL LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS DUE TO SPREADER LIQUIDATION..W THUS LOST SOME SPEC GOLD LONGS. 

 

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW STOPPED IN SILVER AS THEY MORPH INTO GOLD AS THEY HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW FRONT MONTH WILL BE FEBRUARY.

 

 

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEW, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE SPREADERS AND THE CRIMINAL ELEMENT BEHIND IT:

 

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR GOLD..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR SILVER.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEWCOMERS HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

.

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO GOLD AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX SILVER OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JAN HEADING TOWARDS THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEBRUARY FOR GOLD:

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON  ACTIVE MONTH OF JAN.BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (FEB), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

 

 

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JAN : 169,064 CONTRACTS OR 16,906,400 oz OR 525.86 TONNES (19 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 8898 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 19 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 525.86 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 525.86/3550 x 100% TONNES =14.81% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:    525.86  TONNES

JANUARY 2220 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE; SO FAR: 525.86 TONNES

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

Result: A HUMONGOUS SIZED DECREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 33,919 WITH THE STRONG PRICING LOSS THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK TUESDAY($6.70)) //.WE ALSO HAD A  STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 6332 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT TH GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 6332 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE  HAD A HUGE SIZED LOSS OF 27,587 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

6332 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 33,919 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE LOSS IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 85.81 TONNES). ..AND THIS  DECREASE OF DEMAND OCCURRED WITH THE LOSS IN PRICE OF $6.70 WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S TRADING/// AT THE COMEX.

 

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With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

 

 

WITH GOLD UP $0.40 TODAY

 

NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//

 

JAN 28/2019/Inventory rests tonight at 899.41 tonnes

 

 

 

 

 

SLV/

 

 

WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY

A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A DEPOSIT OF 1.587 MILLION OZ//

JAN 28/INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.719 MILLION OZ.

 

 

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

 

 

end

 

OUTLINE OF TOPICS TONIGHT

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest in SILVER FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 6152 CONTRACTS from 238,085 DOWN TO 231,933 AND FURTHER FROM OUR NEW COMEX RECORD.  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 3/4 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

 

EFP ISSUANCE 5429

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 FOR FEB. 0; FOR MAR  5492:  AND MAY: 0; JULY: 0 CONTRACTS   AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 5492 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE OI LOSS AT THE COMEX OF 6152 CONTRACTS TO THE 5492 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A SMALL LOSS OF 723 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 3.615 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL  18.765 MILLION OZ FOR MAY  NOW 2.660 MILLION OZ FOR JUNE WITH JULY AT 22.605 MILLION OZ AUGUST AT 10.025 MILLION OZ//  SEPT: 43.030 MILLION OZ///OCT: 7.32 MILLION OZ//NOV 2.63 MILLION OZ//DEC: 20.970 MILLION OZ//JAN: 5.025 MILLION OZ//

 

 

RESULT: A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE 59 CENT LOSS IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// TUESDAY. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED 5492 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

 

 

(report Harvey)

 

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)WEDNESDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED   //Hang Sang CLOSED    /The Nikkei closed UP 163.69 POINTS OR 0.71%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .53%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed   at XXX/Oil UP TO 53.80 dollars per barrel for WTI and 59.91 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT XXXXAGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.9617 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING XXX LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING XX AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

 

3b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3C  CHINA

CHINA

Business must be good due to the coronavirus:  China has just shuttered almost half of all of starbuck stores in China

(zerohedge)

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)FRANCE

Rioting continues in France as firefighters et al want a 25% pay rise as they cannot keep up with rising prices
(zerohedge)

ii)EU/USAA carbon tax is the most stupidest tax on earth.  Europe wants a carbon tax.  Trump threatens with retaliation if they do!!

(Mish Shedlock/Mishtalk)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

i)ISRAEL/USA/WEST BANK/PALESTINE

Trump’s plan for the two states, Israel and Palestine: Israel to immediately vote on Sunday to annex the West Bank lands delineated in Trump’s peace plan

(zerohedge)

ii)IRAQ/USA

USA halts all weapon deliveries to Iraq.  They are telling the Iraqis it is USA or Iran for their protection. They will take the USA

(zerohedge)

iii)YEMEN/SAUDI ARABIA

IRANIAN BACKED, Yemen Houthis launch a failed missile attack on a Saudi Aramco facility.

(zerohedge)

iv)OFF COAST OF UAE

At one pm est this happened:  an incident off the coast of UAE:  a USA ship is on fire:
(zerohedge)

v)Iran/USAIt seems that Iran was telling the truth that there were casualties on their strike of the uSA embassy in Iraq two weeks ago.  We now have an update and it now seems that 50 American service members suffered traumatic brain injuries.

(zerohedge)

6.Global Issues

i)China/the Globe

For a city that is supposed to be quarantined many planes are leaving Wuhan yesterday and today destinations are Toronto , San Francisco and many other nations

(zerohedge)

i b)With the troubles at Boeing leading the way, the coronovarius will no doubt create a one two punch against the airline industry something that they may never bounce back form

(zerohedge)

ii)Stephen Roach correctly states that this black swan event of the coronavirus should send the world into a deep recession or depression.

(Stephen Roach)

iii)China.Globe

Meet Peng, probably the man behind the release of the coronavirus. This guy has been studying how bats can live with ebola and the coronavirus without harm

(zerohedge)

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)We need all the help in alerting Asian conferences of gold market rigging

(Chris Powell.GATA)

ii)Craig Hemke is of the opinion that interest rates are heading down and that will be good for gold

Craig Hemke/Sprott)

iii)A good one on gold bug Judy Shelton nominated to be a Fed governor

(Market Watch/Bell)

iv)Always popular Hugo Salinas Price. He asks which is better: the totalitarian regime of China which allows its citizens to own gold or democratic Germany who tries to shun its citizens away from gold

(Hugo Salinas PRICE)

v)Rob Kirby goes back in time trying to explain the strange imprisonment of Martin Armstrong who first brought us gold/silver manipulation

(Rob Kirby)

vi)Freeport McMoRan, one of the world’s top producers of gold and copper is in shock at the huge drop in the price of copper these past 9 days.  He attributes it to the coronavirus and how it is impacting China, the world’s largest user of copper and base metals.

(zerohedge)

10. important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

a)Boeing

I am not so sure that Boeing can survive:  they report a 4 billion revenue miss, announce a 220 billion in 737 max costs and cut 787 production.  With all of that its stock surges

(zerohedge)

b)the USA trade deficit in goods jumps a strong 8.5% due to a rise in imports…no Chinese purchases of agriculture

(Market Watch)

iv) Swamp commentaries)

a)And Bernie thought that the nomination process was going to be fair at the DNC?  Shame on Bernie!

(zerohedge)

b)This is not good:  The Republicans do not have the votes to block witnesses.  So it looks like the Bolton, the Neo con will testify.  But they will also force Joe Bide, Hunter Biden and the whistleblower, Eric Ciaramella to testify. This will without a doubt get out of control fast.

(zerohedge)

c)To GOP senators say the Horowitz report misled the public.  They are demanding Barr to declaissy some footnotes which are at odds with the public report

(Sara Carter)

d)Trump; if I had listened to him we would be on World War 6 by now

(zerohedge)

e)We now have one Democrat who wants the Senate to call Joe and Hunter Biden as witnesses:

Joe Manchin
(zerohedge)

f)Fascinating;  the NSC tells Bolton that his book contains “top secret information” and cannot be published unless all of it is sremoved. They reported to him 3 days before the leak..hmm..

(zerohedge)

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

 

LET US BEGIN:

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY GIGANTIC SIZED 33,919 CONTRACTS TO 715,539 MOVING AWAY FROM OUR  RECORD THAT WAS SET LAST WEEK: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020).  AND THIS LOSS IN OI WAS SET WITH A CONSIDERABLE LOSS OF $6.70 IN GOLD PRICING //TUESDAY’S // COMEX TRADING). AGAIN,  A GOOD PORTION OF THE LOSS IN OI COMEX WAS DUE TO THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADERS, BUT WE ALSO LOST SOME LONGS.  THIS SPREADING  LIQUIDATION OPERATION WILL CONTINUE UNTIL FIRST DAY NOTICE WHEN ALL SPREADS ARE NULLIFIED.

 

 

WE ARE NOW IN THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JAN..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A ,GOOD SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 6,332 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

  FEB: 4952; MARCH 00 AND APRIL: 424,  JUNE : 956 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 6332 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 27,587 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 6,332 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE LOST A HUGE 33,919 COMEX CONTRACTS. MOST OF THE LOSS WAS DUE TO THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADERS.

THE BANKERS SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY AND INFINITE AMOUNT OF SHORT PAPER IN GOLD.  THE BANKERS WERE  SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE //// (IT ROSE BY $6.70). AND THEY WERE MOST DEFINITELY SOMEWHAT SUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING ANY LONGS, WITH ALMOST ALL OF THE LOSS IN COMEX DUE TO THE SPREADERS…. IN TOTAL WE LOST A CONSIDERABLE SIZED  27,587 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES….

 

NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ::  27,587 CONTRACTS OR 2,758,700 OZ OR 85.81 TONNES.  

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT COMMODITY FUTURES OPEN INTEREST SHOULD APPROXIMATE 3% OF TOTAL PRODUCTION.  IN GOLD THE WORLD PRODUCES AROUND 3500 TONNES PER YEAR BUT ONLY 2200 TONNES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE WEST (THUS EXCLUDING RUSSIA, CHINA ETC..WHO KEEP 100% OF THEIR PRODUCTION)

THUS IN GOLD WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:  715,539 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS X 100 OZ PER CONTRACT = 71.55 MILLION OZ/32,150 OZ PER TONNE =  2,225 TONNES

THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST REPRESENTS 2,225/2200 OR 101.1% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF GOLD.

 

We are now in the   NON active contract month of JAN.  This month is generally one of the poorest of delivery months for the year.  Here we have a total of 10 open interest left to be served upon, for a LOSS of 3 contracts.   We had 3 notices served up on yesterday so we GAINED 0 contracts or an additional NIL oz will  stand for delivery in this non active delivery month of January and by their actions they negated receiving a fiat bonus

 

The next active delivery month after January is February and here we witnessed a LOSS OF  84,465!!!!! in contracts DOWN to 102,127.  

March GAINED 257 contracts to stand at an open interest of, 2553.

The next active delivery month after March is April and here we witnessed a gain of 39,485 contacts up to 454,407 oi contracts.

We had 3 open interest notices served upon today for 300 oz

the front month of February is not contracting enough (WITH RESPECT TO OI) and thus it seems we will have another strong amount of gold standing for delivery. We have just 2 more reading days before first day notice.  

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now for the wild silver comex results

Total COMEX silver OI FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 6152 CONTRACTS FROM 238,085 DOWN TO 231,933 (AND FURTHER FROM THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018 (244,196).  THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND OUR  OI COMEX LOSS OCCURRED WITH A 59 CENT LOSS IN PRICING/TUESDAY.

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE  NON-ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JAN.

Here we have a GAIN of 10 contracts TO 0. We had 0 notices served on yesterday, so we GAINED 10 CONTRACTS or 50,000 additional oz will stand at the comex for delivery  during this non active delivery month of January. Our resolute longs refused to morph into London based forwards.

 

 

After January, we have  the non active month of February and here we saw a loss of 6 contracts TO A LEVEL OF  255.  March is a very active month and here we witness a LOSS of 7681 contracts  DOWN TO 166,416

WE ARE GOING TO HAVE A STRONG FEBRUARY SILVER STANDING FOR METAL.

 

 

We, today, had  10 notice(s)  for 50,000, OZ for the JAN, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY:462,713 contracts    

 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  611,380 contracts

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  JAN/GOLD

 

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

 

 

JAN 29/2020

 

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
25,666.053 oz
Brinks
HSBC
Delaware
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz 2100.01 oz

 

BRINKS

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

32,482.621

 

oz

 

HSBC

Scotia

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
3 notice(s)
 300 OZ
(0.00933 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
7 contracts
(700 oz)
0.0217 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
2709 notices
270900 OZ
8.4261 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

we had 1 dealer entry:

We had  0 kilobar entries

 

i) Into the dealer Delaware:  2100.01 oz

total dealer deposits: 2100.01 oz

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

 

we had 2 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan: nil  oz

 

 

i)into  HSBC: 2999.94:  oz

ii) Into Scotia: 29,482.621

 

 

total deposits:  32,482.621  oz

 

 

 

we had 0 gold withdrawals from the customer account:

 

 

total gold withdrawals;  0 oz

 

ADJUSTMENTS:  2

i) Out of HSBC 150,106.576 oz

ii) Out of Scotia: 10,085.260 oz

all leave the customer and enter the dealer account of HSBC and Scotia

total weight; 160,191.776  or 4.9826 tonnes

 

 

 

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:  BRINKS

3027.500 OZ  ADDED TO THE PLEDGED ACCOUNT JAN 10.2020/Brinks

207,363.857 oz NOW PLEDGED  JAN 21.2020/HSBC

 

 

 

 

 

 

FOR THE JAN 2020 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 3 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JAN /2020. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (2709) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  JAN. (10 contracts) minus the number of notices served upon today (3 x 100 oz per contract) equals 271,600 OZ OR 8.4479 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this NON active month of JAN

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JAN/2020 contract month:

No of notices served (2709 x 100 oz)  + (10)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (3 x 100 oz )which equals 271,600 oz standing OR 8.449 TONNES in this  NON active delivery month of JAN.

WE GAINED 0 CONTACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 200 OZ WILL NOT STAND AT THE COMEX AND THUS THEY MORPHED  INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS.

 

 

 

 

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES…. WE HAVE ONLY 34.956 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS.

HERE IS WHAT STOOD DURING THESE PAST 6 MONTHS:  AUGUST 27.153 TONNES

SEPT:                                                                      5.4525 TONNES

OCT…………………………………………………………………………..   37.99 TONNES

NOV……                                                                5.3841 tonnes

DEC………………………….                                              45.912 TONNES

JAN……………………                                                    8.449 TONNES

 

total: 130,340 tonnes

ACCORDING TO COMEX RULES:

 

IF WE INCLUDE THE PAST 6 MONTHS OF SETTLEMENTS WE HAVE 20.035 TONNES SETTLED

 

IF WE ADD THE FIVE DELIVERY MONTHS: 130.340  tonnes

 

Thus:

130.340 tonnes of delivery –

20.035 TONNES DEEMED SETTLEMENT

= 110.305 TONNES STANDING FOR METAL AGAINST 39.2208 TONNES OF REGISTERED OR FOR SALE COMEX GOLD! THIS IS WHY GOLD IS SCARCE AT THE COMEX.

 

total registered or dealer gold:   1,471,340.616 oz or  45.7648 tonnes
which  includes the following:
a) pledged gold held at HSBC + BRINKS  which cannot settled upon   210,391.357 oz x ( 6.54403 TONNES)//
b)registered gold that can be used to settle upon:1,260,949.3  (39.2208 tonnes)
true registered gold  (total registered – pledged tonnes  1,260949.3  (39.2208 tonnes)
total registered, pledged  and eligible (customer) gold;   8,702,831.057 oz 270.694 tonnes

 

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX 
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.
3. NO GOLD IS ENTERING THE COMEX

WHY ARE THEY NOT SETTLING?

 

THE COMEX IS AN ABSOLUTE FRAUD..

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH OF JAN.

INITIAL  standings/SILVER

IN TOTAL CONTRAST TO GOLD, HUGE ACTIVITY IN SILVER TODAY.
JAN 29 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 18,122.505 oz
CNT

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
nil oz
CNT
Delaware
Scotia
No of oz served today (contracts)
10
CONTRACT(S)
(50,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
0 contracts
 NIL oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  1005  contracts

5,025,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

*

*

 

 

 

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil  oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

i)we had 0 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:   0

 

ii) Into  everybody else:  0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 161.3 million oz of  total silver inventory or 50.2% of all official comex silver. (161.3 million/321.37 million

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  nil  oz

we had 1 withdrawals out of the customer account:

 

i) Out of CNT:  18,122.505 oz

 

 

 

 

 

total withdrawals; 18,122.505   oz

We had 2 adjustments:

i Out of Brinks:  6,652,004.970 leaves the dealer and enters the customer account and this is a deemed settlement

ii) Out of CNT:  599,611.269 oz was adjusted out of the customer of CNT and this lands into the dealer account of CNT

 

 

total dealer silver:  79.845 million

total dealer + customer silver:  321.370 million oz

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The total number of notices filed today for the JAN 2020. contract month is represented by 10 contract(s) FOR 50,000 oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in  JAN, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 1005 x 5,000 oz =5,025,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JAN. (10) and the number of notices served upon today 10 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the JAN/2019 contract month: 1005 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of JAN (10- number of notices served upon today (10) x 5000 oz equals 5,025,000 oz of silver standing for the JAN contract month.

WE GAINED 10 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 50,000 OZ WILL STAND FOR METAL AT THE COMEX AND REFUSE TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS. BY DOING THIS THEY ALSO NEGATED RECEIVING A FIAT BONUS.

 

 

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN:  THE COMEX IS UNDER ASSAULT FOR BOTH PHYSICAL GOLD AND SILVER WITH SILVER IN THE LEAD BY FAR. DESPITE  MASSIVE RAIDS, LONGS CONTINUE WITH THEIR HUNT AT THE COMEX FOR PHYSICAL METAL.. IT WILL NOT BE LONG BEFORE WE WITNESS A COMMERCIAL FAILURE..STAY TUNED..WE WITNESSED CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING IN SILVER TODAY AND AN ATTEMPTED BANKER SHORT COVERING IN GOLD WITH ZERO SUCCESS.

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 10 notice(s) filed for 50,000 OZ for the JAN, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME:  55,172 CONTRACTS //

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 118,041 CONTRACTS..

 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 7118.041 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 590 million  OZ   84.0.% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..

 

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42

The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

 

end

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

NPV for Sprott

 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV RISES TO -0.73% ((JAN 29/2019)

2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO +0.08% to NAV (JAN 29/2019 )

Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ -0.73%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 15.49 TRADING 15.16///DISCOUNT  2.12

 

END

 

 

 

 

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

JAN 29/WITH GOLD UP 0.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 899.41 TONNES

JAN 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.70 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 899.41 TONNES

JAN 27//WITH GOLD UP $6.15 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 900.58 TONNES

JAN 24//WITH GOLD UP $6.65 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.76 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 900.58 TONNES

JAN 23/WITH GOLD UP $8.90 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 898.82 TONNES

JAN 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MAMMOTH 19.33 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD ADDED//INVENTORY RESTS AT 898.82 TONES

JAN 21/2010//WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 879.49 TONNES

JAN 17/WITH GOLD UP $9.60 TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: ANOTHER PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.17 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 879.49

JAN 16//WITH GOLD DOWN $3.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.80 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD./INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.32

JAN 15/WITH GOLD UP $9.55 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.52 TONNES

JAN 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.52 TONNES

JAN 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.75 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 7.6 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WAS USED IN THE RAID TODAY////INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.52 TONNES

JAN 10/WITH GOLD UP $5.80 TODAY:NA HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 4.69 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.12 TONNES

JAN 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.81 TONNES

JAN 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.10 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 9.37 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.81 TONNES

JAN 7/WITH GOLD UP $7.00 A GOOD INVENTORY PAPER DEPOSIT OF 0.88 TONNES  IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 896.18 TONNES

JAN 6/WITH GOLD UP #15.40 NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 895.30 TONNES

JAN 3/WITH GOLD UP $24.60: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.05 TONES INTO THE GLD../INVENTORY RESTS AT 895.30

JAN 2/2020//WITH GOLD UP $5.20: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 893.25

DEC 31/WITH GOLD UP $4.65: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 893.25 TONNES

DEC 30//WITH GOLD UP $2.05//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 892.37 TONNES

DEC 27/WITH GOLD UP $4.10 TODAY: A BIG  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 3.51 PAPER TONNES INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 892.37 TONNES

DEC 26/WITH GOLD UP $9.85 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.93 TONNES INTO THE GLD.///INVENTORY RESTS AT 888.86 TONNES

DEC 24/WITH GOLD UP $14.60//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 885.93 TONNES

DEC 23/WITH GOLD UP $7.75: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.64 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 885.93 TONNES

DEC 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.15 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.29 TONNES

DEC 19/WITH GOLD UP $6.65 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.65 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.29 TONNES

DEC 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 5.56 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.66 TONNES

DEC 17/WITH GOLD UP $.30 TODAY: 1 SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .29 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.22 TONNES

DEC 16//WITH GOLD DOWN $.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 885.93 TONNES

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

JAN 29/2019/Inventory rests tonight at 899.41 tonnes

*IN LAST 751 TRADING DAYS: 38.045 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD

*LAST 651 TRADING DAYS: A NET 129.01. TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

JAN 29/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: A BIG  CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.587 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.719 MILLION OZ//

 

JAN 28//WITH SILVER DOWN 59 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 360.132 MILLION OZ

JAN 27//WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 327,000 OZ INTO THE SLV..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 359.805 MILLION OZ//

JAN 24//WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE PAPER DEPOSIT OF 5.975 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 359.805 MILLION OZ//

JAN 23/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 353.830 MILLION OZ..

JAN 22/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.027 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 353.830 OZ

JAN 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 354.437 MILLION OZ//

JAN 17/WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 420,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 354.437 MILLION OZ.

JAN 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: A CONSIDERABLE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 840,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 354,857 MILLION OZ//

JAN 15/WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 355.697 MILLION OZ//

JAN 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 355.697 MILLION OZ//

JAN 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE  CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.261 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 355.697 MILLION OZ//

JAN 10/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 356.958 MILLION OZ//

JAN 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 3.268 MILLION OZ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 356.958 MILLION OZ///

JAN 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 360.226 MILLION OZ//

JAN 7.//WITH SILVER UP 23  CENTS TODAY: ANOTHER MASSIVE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.214 MILLION OZ IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 360.226 MILLION OZ..

JAN 6/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.440 MILLION OZ///

JAN 3/2020//WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY: ANOTHER HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.176 MILLION OZ  IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.440  MILLION OZ///

SINCE DEC 23 WE HAVE HAD A 94 CENT GAIN CORRESPONDING TO A 2.39 MILLION OZ OF PAPER WITHDRAWALS..AN ABSOLUTE FRAUD!

JAN 2/2020/WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.214 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV INVENTORY: INVENTORY RESTS AT 362.616 MILLION OZ

DEC 31/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.830 MILLION OZ//

DEC 30/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.830 MILLION OZ//

DEC 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.830 MILLION OZ

DEC  26//WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.830 MILLION OZ//

DEC 24/WITH SILVER UP 32 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.830 MILLION OZ///

 

DEC 23/WITH SILVER UP 26 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.028 MILLION PAPER OZ IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.830 MILLION OZ//

DEC 20/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 364.858 MILLION OZ//

DEC 19/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 364.858 MILLION OZ//

DEC 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 364.858 MILLION OZ//

DEC 17//WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY: A FAIR SIZED CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 747,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 364.858 MILLION OZ/?

DEC 16/WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 365.605 MILLION OZ//

 

JAN 29.2020:  SLV INVENTORY

361.719 MILLION OZ

 

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 1.79/ and libor 6 month duration 1.77

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: – .02

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 1.81%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 1.83

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.02

end

 

 

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

Silver Prices Likely To Go “Exponential” – Guggenheim Co-Founder

◆ Silver prices are likely to go “exponential again” according to Guggenheim Partners co-founder Scott Minerd, in an interview with Bloomberg at Davos (see silver chart and interview below)

◆ Silver is “the number one conviction trade in 2020” Minerd, who is also the Guggenheim Global Chief Investment Officer (CIO) told Bloomberg whose conviction trade was greeted with surprise by Bloomberg’s Tom Keene and Jonathan Ferro

◆ Silver has more room to run and there is a “strong probability” that silver will go “exponential” again according to Minerd

◆ “When you look at the relative values of silver and gold, silver is about 65% below its prior peak while gold is very close to its prior peak”

◆ Financial markets and assets are a central bank fueled ‘ponzi scheme’ warned Minerd who is concerned about the huge rally seen in bond and particularly stock markets

 

Silver in USD – 10 Years (GoldCore.com)

In this special podcast to celebrate GoldCore’s appointment as an Approved Distributor of The Royal Mint, the GoldCore team discuss the ‘3 Key Things to Protect Your Finances in the 2020s’

Watch Podcast Here

NEWS and COMMENTARY

Gold inches up as virus fears mount; markets await Fed decision

Japan, U.S. evacuate citizens from China as virus spreads

How China’s new virus could disrupt the phase one trade deal with the US

Coronavirus cases in China overtake SARS — and the economic impact could be ‘more severe’

Industrial metals stabilise after coronavirus shock

IMF sees Italy deficit overshoot, says debt won’t come down

Gold price will skyrocket if Bernie Sanders wins 2020 presidential election

Exclusive Gold Offer – For Retail, Pension and HNW Investors

Distributor_colour_RGB

To celebrate our appointment as a Royal Mint Approved Distributor, we are offering newly minted 2020 Gold Britannias and Gold Sovereigns at incredibly reduced premiums for all lump sum and pension investments worth more than £10,000, €12,000 or $14,000.

We are also giving 12 months of Secure Storage free of charge. Investors must trade before March 20th to qualify for the Exclusive Offer.

Key benefits and information here

GOLD PRICES (USD, GBP & EUR – AM/ PM LBMA Fix)

28-Jan-20 1579.60 1574.00, 1212.19 1211.04 & 1433.33 1430.77
27-Jan-20 1583.45 1580.10, 1209.28 1210.04 & 1436.66 1433.94
24-Jan-20 1561.85 1564.30, 1192.63 1194.19 & 1415.04 1418.04
23-Jan-20 1554.05 1562.90, 1182.94 1191.24 & 1401.91 1411.77
22-Jan-20 1558.10 1556.90, 1193.19 1186.20 & 1404.78 1406.04
21-Jan-20 1556.25 1551.30, 1192.87 1188.14 & 1401.25 1397.26
20-Jan-20 1559.25 1560.15, 1200.93 1200.38 & 1406.76 1407.72
17-Jan-20 1556.50 1557.60, 1193.21 1195.15 & 1399.60 1402.93
16-Jan-20 1555.20 1554.55, 1190.97 1190.94 & 1393.61 1394.90

SIGN UP FOR OUR AWARD WINNING MARKET UPDATES HERE

Mark O’Byrne
Executive Director

 

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

We need all the help in alerting Asian conferences of gold market rigging

(Chris Powell.GATA)

Help GATA alert Asian conferences to gold market rigging

 Section: 

12:06p ET Tuesday, January 28, 2020

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Recognizing that investors in Asia are more aware of gold’s function in the world financial markets than investors in North America, your secretary/treasurer will speak again in March at major financial conferences in Singapore and Hong Kong.

… 

The first conference, Mining Investment Asia, will be held at the Intercontinental Hotel in Singapore from Tuesday to Thursday, March 17-19:

https://www.mininginvestmentasia.com

The second, the Mines and Money Asia conference, will be held at the Conrad Hotel in Hong Kong on Tuesday, March 31, and Wednesday, April 1:

https://asia.minesandmoney.com/

Your secretary/treasurer again hopes to explain how surreptitious intervention against gold in the currency markets by governments and central banks defeats all markets and seriously damages the mining industry and all commodity producers.

Of course such travel entails substantial expense, so if you have not recently supported GATA with a financial contribution, please consider making one now to underwrite our work:

http://www.gata.org/node/16

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Toast to a free gold market
with great GATA-label wine

Wine carrying the label of the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee, cases of which were awarded to three lucky donors in GATA’s recent fundraising campaign, are now available for purchase by the case from Fay J Winery LLC in Texarkana, Texas. Each case has 12 bottles and the cost is $240, which includes shipping via Federal Express.

Here’s what the bottles look like:

http://www.gata.org/files/GATA-4-wine-bottles.jpg

Buyers can compose their case by choosing as many as four varietals from the list here:

http://www.gata.org/files/FayJWineryVarietals.jpg

GATA will receive a commission on each case of GATA-label wine sold. So if you like wine and buy it anyway, why not buy it in a way that supports our work to achieve free and transparent markets in the monetary metals?

To order a case of GATA-label wine, please e-mail Fay J Winery at bagman1236@aol.com.

* * *

Support GATA by purchasing
Stuart Englert’s “Rigged”

“Rigged” is a concise explanation of government’s currency market rigging policy and extensively credits GATA’s work exposing it. Ten percent of sales proceeds are contributed to GATA. Buy a copy for $14.99 through Amazon —

https://www.amazon.com/Rigged-Exposing-Largest-Financial-History/dp/1651…

— or for an additional $3 and a penny buy an autographed copy from Englert himself by contacting him at srenglert@comcast.net.

* * *

Join GATA here:

Mining Investment Asia
InterContinental Hotel, Singapore
Tuesday-Thursday, March 17-19, 2020
https://www.mininginvestmentasia.com/

Mines and Money Asia
Conrad Hotel, Hong Kong
Tuesday-Wednesday, March 31-April 1, 2020
https://asia.minesandmoney.com/

* * *

Help keep GATA going:

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16

end

Craig Hemke is of the opinion that interest rates are heading down and that will be good for gold

Craig Hemke/Sprott)

Craig Hemke at Sprott Money: Ahead of the January FOMC meeting

 Section: 

6:20p ET Tuesday, January 28, 2020

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

With the Federal Reserve considering putting a cap on interest rates as was done during World War II, the environment for gold can get only more positive, the TF Metals Report’s Craig Hemke writes today at Sprott Money. Hemke adds that the Fed is likely to reduce short-term interest rates in March, also bullish for gold.

Hemke’s analysis is headlined “Ahead of the January Federal Open Market Committee Meeting” and it’s posted at Sprott Money here:

https://www.sprottmoney.com/Blog/ahead-of-the-january-fomc-craig-hemke-2…

CHRIS POWELL,Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

A good one on gold bug Judy Shelton nominated to be a Fed governor

(Market Watch/Bell)

Which Judy Shelton will Fed get? Gold standard advocate or Trump defender?

 Section: 

By Sam Bell
MarketWatch.com, New York
Tuesday, January 28, 2020

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/which-judy-shelton-will-the-fed-get-go…

President Donald Trump officially nominated Judy Shelton on Tuesday to join the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors to help shape monetary policy. But which Judy Shelton will the Fed get?

After describing low interest rates as an assault on democratic capitalism during the Obama years, Shelton now embraces lower rates and suggests that the next Bretton Woods conference to reshape international monetary arrangements should be held at Mar-a-Lago.

… 

Many have already written about her flip-flops, including the Wall Street Journal’s Greg Ip and Bloomberg’s Ramesh Ponnuru. As Ip writes, “Having accused the Fed, under Mr. Obama, ‘of catering to the political class,’ she now says it should support Mr. Trump’s agenda by cutting interest rates to ‘ensure maximum access to capital.'”

If the Senate is uncomfortable confirming someone willing to jettison her longstanding positions to win a position of power, they should not confirm Shelton. But let’s assume they do confirm her, and that she flips back once she is on the Fed. What was her pre-Trump vision for monetary policy?

In 2012 she wrote that the end point for her desired reforms could be a “Universal Gold Reserve Bank.” This institution “would have the potential to become a sort of global monetary authority.”

She hasn’t spelled out all the details but here are the basics: the “UGRB would stand ready to buy or sell its own financial obligation—an instrument pegging the value of the ‘uni,’ let’s call it, to a specific weight of gold.”

This is consistent with her long written record.

She is not just a long-time supporter of the gold standard (for example, she began a February 2009 Wall Street Journal op-ed, “Let’s go back to the gold standard.”), Shelton’s vision is global.

Circa 2000 she toyed with the idea of a common currency for North America. “The common currency for this union could be an ‘amero,'” — and she even favored a global common currency. She asked, “how can we ignore the parallel need for a common unit of account, a global form of money?”

The implication is that we don’t need the Federal Reserve, the institution she is seeking to join.

She told the Wall Street Journal in 2008: “At this point, dickering over whether Alan Greenspan should have formulated monetary policy in strict accordance with an econometrically determined ‘rule,’ or whether the Fed even has the power to influence long-term rates, raises a more fundamental question: Why do we need a central bank?”

Is this all pie in the sky? Maybe.

The Wall Street Journal editorial board has encouraged Trump to think of Shelton as a chair-in-waiting.

But Bloomberg News reports that Shelton “would, if confirmed” as a governor, “represent a potential chair-in-waiting. One administration official familiar with the matter told Bloomberg in July that’s an option once Powell’s term expires, or even before.”

And Fed chairs have vast powers to change the institutional arrangements, as Marriner Eccles, Paul Volcker and Ben Bernanke all did in various ways.

Shelton’s mentor, Bob Mundell, is the intellectual godfather of the euro. Twenty years ago the Bundesbank made monetary policy for Germany; today the European Central Bank does.

Judging by her record, a Shelton Federal Reserve would like nothing better than to end the Fed and hand the powers to a new global monetary authority, the Universal Gold Reserve Bank.

Maybe the reformed Judy Shelton of the Trump years will stop short of such radical reform, especially while Trump is still in office. But there is little doubt that she would seek to advance the crusade of her career in more modest ways.

She believes that setting monetary policy to address domestic conditions is “selfish.” In the absence of a proper gold standard, she says she favors fixing the dollar BUXX, +0.00% to rival currencies or gold. (Never mind that this would put American monetary policy at the whim of gold speculators and European central bankers.)

For Shelton, limiting the Fed’s power is the point.

Of course, this all assumes she would show up for the job. The last time the Senate confirmed her for a position — U.S. envoy to the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development — she missed about half the meetings, as the Wall Street Journal reported in August.

If the lousy attendance record, the ceding of monetary sovereignty and the flip-flopping for Trump don’t disturb the Senate, perhaps Milton Friedman’s assessment of Shelton will. In 1994, he wrote of then-colleague Judy Shelton’s op-ed, “It would be hard to pack more error into so few words.”

A few years ago Shelton supported a Virginia effort to study an alternative Virginia currency should the dollar collapse. Since then that effort has faltered.

Perhaps America would be better served if she focused on helping her home state of Virginia prepare for a catastrophe rather than causing one as a Federal Reserve official.

—–

Sam Bell is founder and chief tweeting officer at Employ America.

end

Always popular Hugo Salinas Price. He asks which is better: the totalitarian regime of China which allows its citizens to own gold or democratic Germany who tries to shun its citizens away from gold

(Hugo Salinas PRICE)

Hugo Salinas Price: Some thoughts on democracy and China

 Section: 

6:45p ET Tuesday, January 28, 2020

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

In his latest essay, published tonight, Hugo Salinas Price, president of the Mexican Civic Association for Silver, scorns democracy and raises an uncomfortable question about it. That is, whose political system is superior — “totalitarian” China’s or “democratic” Germany’s — when Germany is impairing the ability of its people to own gold while China is strengthening it?

Salinas Price’s essay is headlined “Some Thoughts on Democracy and China” and it’s posted at the association’s internet site, Plata.com.mx, here:

http://plata.com.mx/enUS/More/385?idioma=2

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

Rob Kirby goes back in time trying to explain the strange imprisonment of Martin Armstrong who first brought us gold/silver manipulation

(Rob Kirby)

Rob Kirby: A look back at Martin Armstrong’s strange incarceration

 Section: 

7:56p ET Tuesday, January 28, 2020

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

In commentary published tonight Rob Kirby of Kirby Analytics in Toronto reviews the strange case of market analyst and former fund manager Martin Armstrong, who, 20 years ago, after claiming familiarity with international schemes to manipulate the gold market, found himself prosecuted for fraud by the U.S. government and imprisoned for 10 years on a charge of contempt of court.

This was an unprecedented duration of imprisonment for contempt, more remarkable insofar as Armstrong had not yet been convicted of anything.

… 

Kirby notes that GATA Chairman Bill Murphy and your secretary/treasurer communicated with Armstrong back then in the hope of publicizing evidence of gold market manipulation and calling attention to the unfairness inflicted on Armstrong by the U.S. government.

We didn’t get far before Armstrong was imprisoned, and, as Kirby notes, since Armstrong was released in a sort of plea bargain he has not returned to the gold manipulation issue, just as the discover of gold market manipulation via gold leasing, market analyst Frank Veneroso, once a GATA associate, long has not wanted to return to the issue either.

The issue never has been terribly good for anybody’s business. It may have been behind the mysterious murder of Armstrong’s business colleague, the banker Edmond Safra, in Monaco in 1999.

But as Gandhi or the American labor leader Nicholas Klein might say if either was still around: “First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, and finally they sneer that everybody really knew all along what you thought was a revelation, and they go back to ignoring you.”

Kirby’s commentary is headlined “Another Look Back at Martin Armstrong’s Incarceration” and its posted at GoldSeek here:

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1580210937.php

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

iii) Other physical stories:

Freeport McMoRan, one of the world’s top producers of gold and copper is in shock at the huge drop in the price of copper these past 9 days.  He attributes it to the coronavirus and how it is impacting China, the world’s largest user of copper and base metals.

(zerohedge)

Freeport-McMoRan CEO Fears “Global Black Swan” As “Devil”-Virus Sparks Record Copper Collapse

Freeport-McMoRan’s shares are on the cusp of a bear market as the world’s largest copper producer warned about plunging copper prices on concerns coronavirus has severely impacted China’s economy, reported Reuters.

Chief Executive Richard Adkerson said in an interview on Tuesday that the outbreak of coronavirus in China is a “real black swan event” for the global economy.

China is the largest buyer of the industrial metal in the world, and with large swaths of its industrial sector shut down because of the virus and holiday, demand has collapsed, sending prices lower for the past ten sessions,the longest losing streak since 1986.

This is the worst 9-day drop since early 2015’s global growth scare…

Copper is regarded by many in the investment community as a bellwether of the global economy. With dozens of Chinese cities locked down and tens of millions of people confined to their homes, the second-largest economy in the world has ground to a halt.

Chinese demand accounts for about 50% of the majority of base metals and looking at the latest data regarding the coronavirus, it’s now spread quite widely,” said analyst Timothy Wood-Dow at BMO Capital in London.

Back in 2003, the SARS outbreak led to a 10% decline of Goldman Sachs Commodity Price index and fully recovered months later.

Adkerson’s warning of a “black swan” event for the global economy is because China is one of the largest drivers of growth in the world. If, for whatever reason, their industries or consumers go offline, it would create a massive shock that could tilt the global economy into recession.

 

Maybe Dr. Copper is suggesting what’s next for stocks

Paging Jay Powell!

END

B

https://www.jsmineset.com/2020/01/29/we-await-silvers-resolute-buyer-to-step-in-again/

 

Posted January 29th, 2020 by J. Johnson & filed under General Editorial.

 

We Await Silver’s Resolute Buyer To Step In Again!

 

Great and Wonderful Wednesday Morning Folks,

 

Gold is trading in the positive with the April contract at $1,575.90, up 10 cents after hitting $1,577.40 with the low at $1,567.90. Silver is in the green as well with the March contract at $17.475 up 1.7 cents after hitting $17.515 with the low at $17.280. The US Dollar is also trading in the green with its value pegged at 97.915, up 8 points after hitting 97.955 with the low at 97.760. Of course, all of this already happened before 5 am pst, the Comex open, the London close, and just days away from the Brexit.

 

Venezuela’s currency now has Gold’s valued pegged at 15,739.30 Bolivar showing a loss of 21.97 with Silver at 174.532 Bolivar a loss of 4.244 during the overnight. Argentina’s Peso now has Gold priced at 94,696.52 Peso’s proving a pullback of 117.77 with Silver losing 25.42 with its price at 1,050.10 A-Pesos. The Turkish Lira, oddly enough, is showing a gain of 6.42 in Gold’s value with the price at 9,390.13 Lira with Silver at 104.114 Lira pulling back 2.32 more from the previous quote.

 

The end of January Silver’s Delivery’s is today with the Demand Count (also known as Open Interest) at 10 posted up on the board after another purchase was made and without price during yesterday’s trade. As of our write up, there is no Volume posted yet as we await the Resolute to step in again (purdy please).

 

Silver’s Overall Open Interest now sits at 231,884 Overnighters proving 6,204 short contracts exited the trade after crushing the price in order to take away the “in the money” profits from the Buyers of Calls and after the Silver Signal was given via the Algo System, which was created to make things more efficient (and more hidden) as the emails and phone calls were replaced, as evidenced, given to the CFTC during its 5 year Silver investigation, proving who’s side the governing body is truly on. How much control a criminal element has, should be the focus of the governing bodies, but their ideas of more control over more issues makes the point mute for now.

 

Gold’s Overall Open Interest fell by 33,065 Overnighters after yesterday’s options expiration and price crush which brought the new total down to 718,916 Obligations, for the last day of January’s Deliveries. The issue today (besides the final purchases for Jan) and tomorrow, is what is left of the Open Interest in February’s contracts. The total this morning is 102,127 contracts that have to be out by Friday, that is if they do not want to take physical delivery. At present the February OI points to a very heavy demand over 10 million ounces. What we’ve witnessed so far this week is a heavy hand of shorts, forcing the coronavirus fear trade out of the market, to facilitate a theft in value in order to keep the system static.

 

The game of paper over physical is still showing itself to be in control. We stand right in the front lines at the Comex, knowing the deliveries will take over the control of paper, when the controllers lose sight of sellers, stupid enough to sell at prices below refining. If there is any doubt in your mind about this, let this interview Chris Marcus had with Keith Neumeyer help remove it: Silver Supply and Demand Positions First Majestic For Great Success.

 

Enjoy the day, keep that smile on your face and a positive attitude in the head, no matter what is going on around you, and as always …

 

Stay Strong!

  1. Johnson

 

JB Slear

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early WEDNESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 6XXX/ GETTING VERY DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.9608   /shanghai bourse CLOSED

HANG SANG CLOSED

 

2. Nikkei closed UP 163.69 POINTS OR 0.71%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL GREEN/

 

 

 

USA dollar index UP TO 98.10/Euro FALLS TO 1.0996

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. –.05/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 109.10/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 53.80 and Brent: 59.91

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE XX/OFF- SHORE: UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO -.37%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 0.98% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.30%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.35: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 1.18

3k Gold at $1570.50 silver at: 17.49   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 41/100 in roubles/dollar) 62.66

3m oil into the 53 dollar handle for WTI and 59 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 109.10 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9753 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0727 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to 0.37%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 1.63% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.09%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.9583..

Markets Jump On Hopes Powell Will Provide Monetary Vaccine To Viral Pandemic

Traders looked past the latest surge in coronavirus cases, which overnight brought the total number of global infections above 6,000, and accelerated Tuesday’s rally resulting in a sea of green across global markets, buoyed by strong results from Apple and McDonalds, while hoping that today the Fed’s Powell would provide some monetary vaccine to the Chinese viral pandemic even as 10Y yield tumbled as low as 1.61%.

World stocks were sharply higher despite a 3% fall in Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index, where trading restarted after the Lunar New Year holiday….

…. and traded less than 2% below recent record highs following Tuesday’s bounce on Wall Street that was aided by robust earnings from Apple and McDonalds but a huge miss by Boeing dented sentiment.

US equity futures ignored all the latest epidemic news, and rose to three-day highs, up over 12 points with the Emini trading above 3,291 last, ahead of today’s Fed statement where Jerome Powell is expected to face questions about the Federal Reserve’s plans to slow its asset purchases as well as how the Fed plans to respond to the deadly viral epidemic.

Contracts on the three major American indexes edged up, in extension of Tuesday’s torrid rally. General Electric rose in the pre-market after its earnings beat the highest estimate.

European shares similarly opened firmer after Tuesday’s 0.8% rise, which was driven by banks after encouraging results from Spain’s Santander, and Swedbank a day earlier. Mining and construction shares led the Stoxx Europe 600 index higher, with 17 of 19 industry sectors in the green.

Earlier in the session, most Asian benchmarks gained, though Hong Kong’s tumbled in a catch-up with the global sell-off since that market shut for holidays. While mainland Chinese markets remain closed, Chinese equity futures traded in Singapore rebounded from two days of losses to rise 1.79%, the biggest gain in almost seven weeks.

“There appears to be more transparency, communication in terms of the virus, and that makes it easier to start assessing the economic fallout. So the markets have taken some comfort from that,” said Rainer Guntermann, a rates strategist at Commerzbank in Frankfurt. And yet, that does little to mitigate the massive impact of the coronavirus outbreak which has already surpassed the total number of SARS infections from the 2003 breakout, with the number of coronavirus fatalities now at 132 and 6,000 cases reported worldwide. This has risen fears the outbreak could inflict serious damage on Chinese growth, already at three-decade lows.

“Until the rate of cases starts to peak, markets are not likely to bounce,” said Sean Darby, global equity strategist at Jefferies in Hong Kong, ironically even as markets were bouncing.

In FX markets, the dollar traded higher versus most G10 peers as Treasuries rallied before the Federal Reserve policy decision. The offshore yuan was little changed at 6.9620 per dollar but held off a one-month low hit earlier this week. Australia’s currency, considered a China proxy because of trade and investment links was also flat just off three-month lows. The safe-haven yen was flat but traded above two-week highs touched on Monday while the dollar index too edged lower after approaching two-month highs.

The dollar’s next moves could be determined by the U.S. Federal Reserve’s meeting later on Wednesday where the central bank should reiterate its on-hold stance. But speculation has risen that the Fed could provide an additional boost as a result of the virus outbreak, with money markets predicting one 25 basis-point rate cut this year and a small chance of a second.

Fears of economic damage are reflected also in the U.S. Treasury yield curve where three-month yields briefly rose on Tuesday above 10-year borrowing costs — the so-called curve inversion that is seen as a fairly reliable recession signal. As calm returns to markets, the curve has returned to normal, however, and Commerzbank’s Guntermann said pricing rate cuts at this stage was “ambitious”.

Treasury 10-year yields dropped as low as 1.61%, off three-month lows around 1.57% hit on Tuesday while German Bund yields also inched higher.

In commodity markets, crude futures rose for the second day after sharp falls triggered by fears for economic growth and a fall in travel demand, with Brent crude up 1% on the day. Gold, which had surged toward $1600 an ounce on Monday, subsided to around $1560.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.1% to 3,283.00
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.4% to 419.03
  • MXAP down 0.2% to 168.98
  • MXAPJ down 0.7% to 547.60
  • Nikkei up 0.7% to 23,379.40
  • Topix up 0.5% to 1,699.95
  • Hang Seng Index down 2.8% to 27,160.63
  • Shanghai Composite closed
  • Sensex up 0.5% to 41,176.00
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.5% to 7,031.52
  • Kospi up 0.4% to 2,185.28
  • German 10Y yield fell 3.0 bps to -0.371%
  • Euro down 0.2% to $1.1005
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 0.6 bps to 0.865%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 2.0 bps to 0.295%
  • Brent futures up 0.9% to $60.02/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.3% to $1,571.34
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.1% to 98.06

Top Overnight News

  • China death toll from coronavirus climbs to 132 as cases soar. The number of confirmed cases in China soared to 5,974 , overtaking the official number of infections during the SARS epidemic
  • The U.S. government is considering several options to combat the emergence of the coronavirus, including a ban on flights to and from China, though no decision has been made, a person familiar with the deliberations said on Tuesday night
  • China pledged to provide abundant liquidity for money markets and urged investors to evaluate the impact of the coronavirus objectively, as the nation prepared for a potentially tumultuous resumption of trading next Monday
  • Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell told his members in a closed meeting that he doesn’t yet have the 51 votes needed to vote swiftly on Trump’s acquittal without seeking more evidence, according to a person familiar with the conversation. Thw move may have been designed to put pressure on any wavering Republicans
  • Boris Johnson’s government plans to reclaim control over British fisheries with a law allowing the U.K. to decide who can fish in its waters and on what terms. The legislation to be published Wednesday will end current automatic rights for European Union vessels to fish in British waters, the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs said
  • The International Monetary Fund expects to send staff to Buenos Aires in February for a technical mission as Argentina’s record $56 billion credit line remains on hold until the new government outlines its economic plan
  • Jerome Powell will likely face questions about the Federal Reserve’s plans to slow its asset purchases as well as potential fallout from a deadly virus when he faces reporters after a policy meeting Wednesday
  • Rising food costs in China have added to the country’s growing list of concerns as authorities struggle to contain the impact of a rapidly spreading viral outbreak. The China Shouguang vegetable price index, a daily indicator of the nation’s produce, surged 4.9% to its highest level in almost four years at 195.45, Xinhua News Agency reported
  • U.K. house prices jumped the most in more than a year in January, according to Nationwide Building Society. Values rose 1.9% from a year earlier, the most since November 2018

Asian equity markets were mostly higher as the region found some reprieve following the rebound on Wall St where sentiment was underpinned by vaccine efforts to tackle the coronavirus, touted dip-buying and encouraging US data, while a stellar report from Apple which beat on both top and bottom lines, as well as iPhone revenue added further fuel to equity futures after-hours. ASX 200 (+0.5%) and Nikkei 225 (+0.7%) took impetus from their US peers but with upside somewhat capped as participants also digested a slew of corporate updates, while Tokyo sentiment was driven by recent favourable currency flows and a heavy slate of earnings. Conversely, Hang Seng (-2.8%) suffered a bloodbath on return from the Lunar New Year holiday and briefly slipped into correction territory with heavy losses across a broad range of industries including financials, airliners and retailers due to the coronavirus fears which prompted measures from Hong Kong to reduce cross-border travel with mainland China, while casino stocks were also a losing bet after China stopped issuing individual travel visas for visits to Macau by mainland residents in an effort to control the outbreak. 10yr JGBs were flat after the recovery in risk appetite dampened safe-haven demand, but with downside also stemmed by support at 152.50 and amid the BoJ’s presence for over JPY 1.1tln of JGBs in up to 10yr maturities.

Top Asian News

  • BOJ Board Members Hint at Rising Concern Over Negative Rates
  • Turkish Deals Back in Play as Economy Rebounds, Stocks Rally
  • Virus Blow to China’s Economy to Be Worse than SARS, Nomura Says

European stocks trade modestly in positive territory [Eurostoxx 50 +0.3%] – following on from a similar APAC lead, with the exception of Hong Kong markets which had its first chance to react to the coronavirus developments following its Lunar New Year holiday. Sectors are mostly in the green with material names outperforming, albeit more-so a consolidation from the recent virus-induces losses. Overall, sectors do not reflect a clear risk tone in the equity-space. Individual movers are more earning-orientated; Pharma-giant Novartis (+1.3%) shares rose amid a beat on both revenue and net income forecasts, whilst also forecasting sustained long-term growth, albeit the Co’s core EPS metric missed expectation. LVMH (+0.3%) nursed opening losses of almost 2%, which was initially induced by a 40% YY drop in Hong Kong sales in Q4 amid ongoing unrest in the region; the Co. topped its FY19 forecasts and posted an improvement in operating profit. Santander (+3.5%) extended on its opening gains amid stellar earnings, with share prices underpinned by a 3% boost to its dividend. Elsewhere, Apple (+2% pre-market) earnings have provided tailwinds to the European chip-space, with AMS (+2.5%), STMicroelectronics (+1.2%), Infineon (+1.4%), Dialog Semiconductor (+1.4%) and ASML (+1.3%) all supported in the aftermath. For reference, DJ constituents Boeing and McDonalds will be reported before the bell today and carry weightings of 7.47% and 4.97% respectively.

Top European News

  • Merkel Cabinet Approves Coal Exit Bill Setting RWE Compensation
  • Poland’s Economic Growth Was the Weakest in Three Years in 2019
  • Altice Europe Confirms Offer for Partner Communications

In FX, the Dollar remains firm almost across the board, and especially vs EM currency peers that are more sensitive to risk aversion and prone to swings in market sentiment. The DXY continues to straddle 98.000 as several major pairings rotate around round numbers in tight confines ahead of the Fed that is likely to provide clearer direction via guidance and the tone of Chair Powell’s first post-meeting press conference of the New Year. In the interim, prelim trade and wholesale inventories may offer some impetus ahead of pending home sales, while any further updates on China’s coronavirus will also be pivotal.

  • JPY/SEK – Bucking the broad trend of underperformance vs the Greenback, the Yen is grinding back up towards the 109.00 level from 109.26 or so lows amidst a wider recovery in safe-haven assets, including Gold and global bonds, as the US Treasury curve flips back in to bull-flattening mode. Meanwhile, the Swedish Krona is also paring more losses vs the Euro after yesterday’s knee-jerk decline post-soft data (overall) with some momentum from an improvement in industrial sentiment over consumer confidence that dipped, with Eur/Sek probing the lower end of 10.5965-5630 parameters.
  • GBP/AUD/CAD/EUR/CHF/NZD – All softer against the Usd to varying degrees, as Cable clings to 1.3000 in advance of Thursday’s eagerly awaited BoE rate call that is seen on a knife edge, while the Aussie is holding in above 0.6750 with assistance from firmer than forecast Q4 CPI metrics and supportive Aud/Nzd cross winds as the Kiwi falters close to Tuesday’s lows within a 0.6527-52 band awaiting NZ trade data later tonight. Elsewhere, the Loonie is gleaning some traction via firmer oil prices to consolidate between 1.3155-76 compared to 1.3200+ at one stage yesterday, but the Euro is still struggling to bounce from around 1.1000 after sub-consensus Eurozone M3 growth, and remains depressed vs the Franc in the low 1.0700 area even though Usd/Chf is hugging the top of 0.9750-27 extremes in wake of a fall in Swiss ZEW investor morale.
  • EM – In contrast to the aforementioned general depreciation against the Dollar, the offshore Yuan is sustaining recovery momentum on hopes that the worst of the health scare may be over soon, while the Rand is keeping its head just above 14.6000 following Moody’s decision that it is too early to review SA’s credit standing and post-budget will be more appropriate.

In commodities, WTI and Brent front-month futures remain on consolidation-mode and hold onto most of their APAC gains, with prices somewhat relieved by the latest private inventory report. Headline crude posted a surprise draw of 4.27mln barrels vs. expectations for a 500k barrel build. Desks note that price action W/W suggest that markets see a substantial demand impact from the coronavirus outbreak, with airlines continuing to suspend travels to and from China. Demand side implications could be significantly impacted – contingent on the strictness of the travel restrictions and the time frame – which may prompt OPEC+ to revaluate their output cut pact. ING notes that prolonged pressure on oil prices could lead to deeper cuts by the oil-rich countries, although Libya’s current oil disruptions may help in regard to the scope of cuts Saudi and Russia could take on. Sources yesterday highlighted a slight shift in Russia’s stance, who prefers exiting the pact in March – but may be willing to stay on if Brent prices remain sub-60/bbl. That said, Russian Energy Minister Novak stated that the country’s tax system may pose risks to Russia’s ability to maintain oil output. Elsewhere spot gold has clambered off overnight lows as DXY pulled back from yesterday’s high, with the yellow metal on standby for significant macro developments ahead of the FOMC rate decision later today. Similarly, copper prices have experienced relatively muted price action thus far following six consecutive sessions of losses.

US Event Calendar

  • 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, prior -1.2%
  • 8:30am: Advance Goods Trade Balance, est. $65.0b deficit, prior $63.2b deficit
  • 8:30am: Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 0.05%, prior -0.1%; Retail Inventories MoM, est. 0.1%, prior -0.7%, revised -0.8%
  • 10am: Pending Home Sales MoM, est. 0.5%, prior 1.2%; Pending Home Sales NSA YoY, est. 10.3%, prior 5.6%
  • 2pm: FOMC Rate Decision

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

I can’t help feeling guilty and sad this morning. Before Xmas we planted a load of new hedging and plants at the top of our drive and garden. This wasn’t cheap. Anyway when we got back from holiday in early January we found it decimated by hungry deers. We cursed them and put some basic netting/fencing around what was salvageable. Anyway when I got home from my luggage-less travels last night my wife told me that a deer had got caught up in it and couldn’t escape. It was very distressed and had a huge gash on its leg. My wife called out the RSPCA and a wildlife charity came out, cut the deer out, gave it some drugs to help with the pain but was on the brink of putting it down as it wouldn’t use its legs and just curled up in a heap. The guy said there was a small chance that it would recover but the likelihood is that a fox would probably take advantage of its lameness tonight. So without going outside with a torch at 4:45 am this morning I won’t know the outcome until after I press send this morning. I may wait until I get home to find out whether the poor thing survived and will live to eat more of my plants. Fingers crossed I go back to cursing it.

Markets have continued to be mostly occupied by the impact of the coronavirus but fears have slightly subsided and other stories (e.g. Apple earnings) are taking more airtime again. The latest update this morning being that the death toll has risen to 132 (from 106 yesterday) and the number of confirmed cases to 5,974 (from 4,515). Yesterday markets got a bit more comfortable with the virus risks (S&P 500 +1.01%) helped by news from China’s Global Times that the country is likely to have a vaccine within three months and also after a renowned Chinese respiratory expert suggested that the peak of the outbreak would be here in a week to 10 days. As we said yesterday, as sad and as worrying as this new strain is, hundreds of thousands of people die of seasonal flu every year across the globe so there continues to be a long way to go before this episode makes for a substantial proportion of these numbers.

Highlighting the impact on manufacturing from the virus, Apple CEO Tim Cook said in their earnings call that the company expects some disruption to its supply chain as factories in China that make Apple products and components will now open on February 10 instead of the end of this month.

Continuing with Apple, the company reported quarterly earnings after the closing bell that beat expectations, with an EPS of $4.99 ($4.54 expected), and revised next quarter’s guidance upwards. The stock was up +1.47% in afterhours trade after rallying +2.83% yesterday. Elsewhere, other tech earnings were lackluster with EBAY reporting decline in 2019Q4 revenues of c. 2% and also gave lower guidance for 2020Q1. The stock is down -5.25% overnight after rallying +2.06% yesterday. Along the same vein, AMD sold off -4.49% in afterhours trade, as the company failed to meet expectations on data-center sales as well as lowering their revenue guidance for next quarter.

Back to China and the country’s major banks said overnight that they will reduce interest rates for small businesses in Hubei affected by the coronavirus. Expect to see more such news from banks and the government to ease the economic hit from this outbreak.

Asian markets are largely trading up with the exception of the Hang Seng (-2.49%) which is catching down after reopening post the NY holidays. The Nikkei (+0.64%) and Kospi (+0.72%) are both advancing. Elsewhere, futures on the S&P 500 are up +0.28% and in commodities, crude oil prices are up c. +1.30% this morning.

In other overnight news, the BoJ released its summary of opinions for its latest policy decision with one board member indicating that a policy review may be needed after expressing concerns over the effectiveness of prolonged low interest rates. He said that active discussions over policy are taking place in the U.S. and in Europe so monetary policy in Japan may also warrant review. Another member said that having low rates for a lengthy period could end up weakening inflation expectations among households and companies if it prompts them to take a more cautious view about the future.

Staying with central banks we’ve got a Fed meeting tonight to preview. To be fair expectations aren’t particularly high for any surprises. Rates will almost certainly remain on hold with only a technical adjustment of a 5bp upward move on the IOER according to our economists – albeit one which is a close call still. Our team expect the meeting statement to be mostly unaltered relative to December’s communique and with the absence of an updated Summary of Economic Projections, that leaves Chair Powell’s press conference as the most likely source of new information. Our team expect the focus of that to be on five topics; the outlook for the policy rate; persistently low inflation and how it relates to the policy review; funding markets and whether T-bill purchases are QE; financial stability risks; and implications for global markets. All that from 7pm GMT.

It’s entirely possible that the micro is just as if not more important today given the busy slate of earnings. Indeed 47 S&P 500 companies are due to report and amongst the headliners are Facebook, Boeing, General Electric, Microsoft, McDonald’s and AT&T.

As noted earlier yesterday saw the S&P 500, NASDAQ and DOW up +1.01%, +1.43% and +0.66% respectively. After the S&P 500 went nearly 4 months without a 1% move in either direction, we’ve now had two such days in a row. The semi-conductor index also rallied +2.40% albeit only recovering just over half of Monday’s plunge. The VIX – which had spiked at 19.02 at the intraday highs on Monday – pulled back to 16.3 meanwhile. The STOXX 600 also rose +0.84% and DAX +0.90% (both back positive YTD) while in credit, following one of the bigger spread widening days on record on Monday, US HY spreads were -10.9bps tighter yesterday and EUR HY spreads -0.9bps tighter. Sovereign bond markets weakened in tow with 10y Treasury and Bund yields +4.8bps and +4.1bps respectively while Gold fell -0.94% and WTI oil rose +0.64%.

The reversal came despite some mixed earnings in the US prior to those tech numbers last night. Harley Davidson (shares down -3.01%), 3M (-5.72%) and Pfizer (-5.02%) were some of the big names to miss however that was somewhat offset by earnings reports from HCA (+2.75%) and Lockheed Martin (+1.11%).

Also painting a bit of a mixed picture was the US data. On the positive side the January consumer confidence print rose 3.4pts to 131.6, far exceeding expectations for 128.0, and the highest level since August. Both the expectations and present situations components improved with the latter actually the second highest reading in this expansion. However, less positive were the preliminary December capital goods orders data. In particular the core capex orders print of -0.9% mom compared to expectations for +0.2% while shipments declined -0.4% mom (vs. +0.2% expected). In addition Boeing’s problems are not helping getting a clear read on this data at the moment. For completeness the S&P CoreLogic house price index for November was a little ahead of expectations at +0.48% mom while the Richmond Fed manufacturing index improved 25pts in January to +20 (vs. -3 expected) and was seen as a bit of an outlier.

Here in the UK its worth noting that yesterday the government announced that Huawei will have partial access to build the UK’s 5G networks. Equipment will be banned from core areas and sensitive sites, while its market share in the network will also be capped at 35%. It will be interesting to see the US response to this with Pompeo in the UK for meetings with the government this week.

To the day ahead now, where the main focus will wait until this evening with the Fed meeting and Chair Powell’s press conference. Prior to that the data in the US includes the December advance goods trade balance, December wholesale inventories and December pending home sales. In Europe we’re expecting the December import price index reading in Germany, January house price data in the UK, December M3 money supply for the Euro Area and confidence indicators in Germany, France and Italy. Away from that the EIA will release its 2020 energy outlook while it’s a big day for earnings with Microsoft, Facebook, Boeing, MasterCard, AT&T, Tesla, General Electric and McDonald’s amongst those reporting.

 

 

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)WEDNESDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED   //Hang Sang CLOSED    /The Nikkei closed UP 163.69 POINTS OR 0.71%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .53%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed   at XXX/Oil UP TO 53.80 dollars per barrel for WTI and 59.91 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT XXXXAGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.9617 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING XXX LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING XX AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 C CHINA

CHINA

Business must be good due to the coronavirus:  China has just shuttered almost half of all of its stores in China

(zerohedge)

Coronavirus Chaos Forces Starbucks To Shutter Almost Half Its Stores In China

Starbucks announced Tuesday that it could take a big financial hit from the coronavirus outbreak in China, as it was forced to close thousands of stores in top operating markets, reported Reuters.

The outbreak of the deadly disease has so far resulted in 132 deaths and over 6,145 confirmed cases.

Authorities have locked down 15 cities and all transportation networks, along with 57 million people confined to their homes. Many of these cities have shuttered factories and all retail stores for the next several weeks.

Starbucks said it closed more than 2,000 out of its 4,292 stores in China, which caused investors to sell the stock, down about one percent on Wednesday morning.

Management expects a material impact on global sales as there’s no clear indication when stores will reopen, considering confirmed cases and deaths of the virus continue to rise exponentially.

The true extent of the damage to the world’s largest coffee chain might not be realized until March, but the company stressed in a earnings call on Tuesday that long-term double-digit growth expectations won’t be affected.

Starbucks CEO Kevin Johnson said the company is responding to the virus “in a thoughtful and responsible way to protect our partners and support health officials and the government as they work to contain this public health risk. I am proud of how Starbucks China is navigating a very dynamic situation.”

Starbucks has been one of the first major companies, besides Apple, to stress that a financial hit in 1Q is likely because of the coronavirus outbreak in China.

Investors might want to forget about the global growth rebound narrative for early 2020 as a black swan coronavirus event might produce a shock that could tilt the global economy into recession. This is much different than 2003 SARs, due mostly because of how large China’s economy is today and interconnected with the rest of the world.

end

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

As my good friend Robert H comments to me: what a novel idea, “let’s quarantine flights from Wuhan

(Robert H)

Coronavirus: Britons on Wuhan flights to be quarantined – BBC News

Inbox
x

Robert 

6:11 AM (1 hour ago)

to

Harvey

What a novel idea.  Better to err on the side of prudence. Perhaps other nations will follow.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-51292590

end
FRANCE
Rioting continues in France as firefighters et al want a 25% pay rise as they cannot keep up with rising prices
(zerohedge)

French Firefighters Set Selves Ablaze, Spar With Riot Cops As Yellow Vest Chaos Resumes

French firefighters have joined the mass anti-government protests raging across the country, with some setting themselves on fire and fighting with riot cops while arguing for a pay raise of 25%.

Fabien Rives@Fabien_Rives

Des pompiers s’immolent symboliquement avenue de la République

Embedded video

Jonathan Moadab@MoadabJ

Tensions en cours. Les matraqués par la police

Embedded video

Fire brigade unions are demanding better pay and conditions and organised the demonstration in the capital’s Place de la Republique to bring attention to their cause today.

They want a pay rise of 25% arguing their work is made increasingly difficult due to staff cuts and attacks against them.

Paris police said firefighters who tried to break down or scale fencing near the Nation area of the city were dispersed by water cannon.

Firefighters previously demonstrated in October – marked by clashes with the police – calling for better pay, guarantees of their pension benefits and greater respect for their profession. –Metro.uk

Jonathan Moadab@MoadabJ

De plus en plus de blessés. Un a réussi a subtiliser un bouclier de policier

Embedded video

Luke Rudkowski

@Lukewearechange

Paris right now

View image on Twitter
END

EU/USA

A carbon tax is the most stupidest tax on earth.  Europe wants a carbon tax.  Trump threatens with retaliation if they do!!

(Mish Shedlock/Mishtalk)

Trump Threatens Retaliation On Proposed EU Carbon Taxes

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,

Carbon taxes are a top priority on EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. Expect a big conflict with Trump.

The EU and Trump declared a truce over digital taxes but now the US Threatens Retaliation Against the EU Over Proposed Carbon Tax.

Speaking to the Financial Times, Wilbur Ross compared the EU’s plans for a carbon tax to moves by several European countries to impose a digital services tax, which has angered US officials and caused Washington to threaten tariffs on EU products.

“Depending on what form the carbon tax takes, we will react to it – but if it is in its essence protectionist, like the digital taxes, we will react,” Mr Ross said.

Ms von der Leyen outlined last week how her flagship green deal programme would need to involve some carbon border regulations or taxes to ensure that the benefits of the programme were not offset by carbon embedded in imports. “There is no point in only reducing greenhouse gas emissions at home, if we increase the import of CO2 from abroad,” Ms von der Leyen said. “It is not only a climate issue; it is also an issue of fairness towards our businesses and our workers. We will protect them from unfair competition.”

During the Davos meetings, Steven Mnuchin, the US Treasury secretary, sparred with Christine Lagarde, the European Central Bank president, over ways to tackle climate change. Mr Mnuchin described a carbon tax as “a tax on hard working people.”

Not Just France

Trump and French president Emmanuel Macron were able to reach an agreement to postpone digital taxes but this issue is not up to France.

Fairness

In the name of “fairness” the EU will impose taxes and demand everyone else pay them too.

This is yet another example of why the UK did well to escape the clutches of EU bureaucrats.

In this case however, the EU proposes to act like Trump: Enforce sanctions on the whole world via its own idiocy, all in the name of its own definition of “fairness”.

Zero Tolerance for Carbon Leakage

How this will work is of course a mystery. And it imposes the harshest penalties on countries that do not yet have much infrastructure or industry, especially in Africa.

Bloomberg discussed the concept back in December with its report Wait Until Donald Trump Hears About the Carbon Border Tax.

“If necessary, if there is carbon leakage, we will have to think about a carbon border tax,” European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen told the United Nations climate summit in Madrid this week.

Wrong Conclusion

Unfortunately, the article concluded:

 

Europe shouldn’t let itself be dissuaded. Plenty of smart people think carbon border taxes are necessary, including Ben Bernanke and Alan Greenspan, both former heads of the Federal Reserve. As the birthplace of the industrial revolution, the continent has a unique responsibility to curb planet-heating carbon emissions, including those embedded in goods consumed here but produced elsewhere.”

Zero Tolerance is the New Fair

Yeah, right.

The US benefited, then China benefitted, now Africa cannot. It’s all totally “fair” to demand zero new emissions.

Think about Africa for a second. Let’s force African nations who want to industrialize to use wind and solar despite the enormous costs of doing so.

Heaven forbid emerging countries resort to natural gas or the EU will tariff the hell out of them.

END

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

ISRAEL/USA/WEST BANK/PALESTINE

Trump’s plan for the two states, Israel and Palestine: Israel to immediately vote on Sunday to annex the West Bank lands delineated in Trump’s peace plan

(zerohedge)

Israel Will Vote Sunday To Annex West Bank Lands Delineated In Trump’s ‘Peace Plan’

Immediately following Trump’s unveiling details of his ‘deal of the century’ Mideast peace plan alongside Israeli PM Netanyahu at the White House, Netanyahu announced that Israel will move forward to vote Sunday to annex some 30% of all West Bank territory.

Netanyahu said that “Israel will apply its laws to the Jordan Valley and to the Jewish communities in Judea and Samaria.” This means a million or so Palestinian residents could come under Israeli rule, which sparked a fierce backlash both internationally and among some members of US Congress.

EHSANI2@EHSANI22

Look on Bibi’s face tells you how good is to Palestinians

View image on Twitter

“This is not a peace plan. It is theft. It is erasure,” Left-wing congresswoman Ilhan Omar tweeted following Trump and Netanyahu’s midday remarks.

It was immediately seen by many pundits as setting up Israeli hardliners for a big land grab which concedes all to Israel without even consulting the Palestinian side on the ‘deal’, per The Washington Post:

The package is expected to propose a redrawn border between Israel and the West Bank that would formalize Israeli control over large Jewish settlements. It would give U.S. blessing to some forms of Israeli security control over the territory Israel seized in 1967 and has occupied since, according to two people familiar with the plan who spoke on the condition of anonymity before the plan’s release.

Another Democrat, Michigan representative Andy Levin, slammed the plan for not in reality being a “two-state solution” – instead he noted it’s “in name only”.

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

This is what a future State of Palestine can look like, with a capital in parts of East Jerusalem.

View image on Twitter

“Don’t be fooled,” Rep. Levin wrote on Twitter. The proposed plan not is not promising “a lasting peace that will protect Israel’s future as a democratic homeland for the Jewish people or fulfill Palestinians’ aspirations for self-determination,” he said.

Aside from Hamas and the Palestinian Authority under Abbas immediately rejecting the plan to which they were not privy, nor had any negotiating role (after already declaring it would be dead on arrival), Turkey was among the first internationally to condemn it.

The Turkish Foreign Ministry called it “still-born” and further described it as “an annexation plan aiming to destroy the two-state solution and seize Palestinian territories.”

Hussein Ibish

@Ibishblog

A quick thread summarizing the basic aspects of the Trump anti-peace plan:
1) Palestinians get the trappings of statehood but no state whatsoever
2) Israel will maintain all security control, including over coastal waters, airspace, electromagnetic spectrum and everything.

“The people and land of Palestine cannot be bought off,” the foreign ministry statement added.

EHSANI2@EHSANI22

How Unfolded

View image on Twitter

It also appears there won’t be much support at the UN for the new plan: “U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres says the United Nations remains committed to supporting Palestinians and Israelis in resolving their conflict on the basis of U.N. resolutions, international law and bilateral agreements,” the AP reports.

Referencing the the pre-1967 borders, UN spokesman Stephane Dujarric said, “The position of the United Nations on the two-State solution has been defined, throughout the years, by relevant Security Council and General Assembly resolutions by which the Secretariat is bound.”

END

IRAQ/USA

USA halts all weapon deliveries to Iraq.  They are telling the Iraqis it is USA or Iran for their protection. They will take the USA

(zerohedge)

US Halts All Weapons Deliveries To Iraq As Local Demands For Troop Exit Grow

Upping the ante and further threatening downward spiraling US-Iraq relations, the Trump administration has now suspended all weapons deliveries to Iraqincluding missile systems promised as part a $1.8 billion contract signed in 2016.

Department of Defense officials cited security concerns over the arms deliveries, also amid recent White House threats to actually impose sanctions on the country while completely severing military ties. However, most analysts see these latest threats – which also have been tied with demands the country pay back the “billions” spent on an air base should US forces be made to leave – as but an attempt to leverage greater Baghdad dependency on Washington (and not Tehran).

 

Iraqi F-16 fighter jet file image.

The late Monday announcement also said US training and support for Iraq’s F-16 fleet will pause. Air Force spokesman Brian Brackens said the US will begin shipments again “when the environment in Iraq is safe enough to resume.”

 

The past week in Baghdad has been extremely volatile, also with multiple deaths throughout the country as protests grip major cities, following both last week’s “million man protests” demanding an immediate US troop withdrawal, as well as anti-government protests which have raged on-and-off since October.

Sara Sirota@SaraLSirota

The last shipment was made Nov 14. The $1.8 billion deal signed in May 2016 provided Sidewinder missiles, Maverick missiles & other weapons to Iraq. Unclear how many have been delivered and how many left to go. https://twitter.com/TonyBertuca/status/1221901294673301504 

Tony Bertuca@TonyBertuca

News: U.S. government pauses weapon deliveries, personnel support for Iraq’s F-16 fleet, via @SaraLSirota https://insidedefense.com/daily-news/us-government-pauses-weapon-deliveries-personnel-support-iraqs-f-16-fleet 

Thousands of US troops are still stationed throughout the country, but mostly concentrated in the north, in an “advise and assist” capacity. The US has made Iraq’s military completely dependent on US aid since being essentially recreated after the 2003 invasion disastrous ‘de-Baathification’ policy under Coalition Provisional Authority chief Paul Bremmer.

Following the defeat of the ISIS ‘territorial caliphate’ however, US justification for remaining in the region has evolved.

Though officially the mission is still defined in the name ‘anti-ISIL coalition forces,’ the reality is that the administration and Pentagon have of late emphasized a ‘counter Iran’ mission, especially following the Jan.3 assassination by drone of the IRGC’s Gen. Qassem Soleimani.

Many pundits have predicted the obvious: that the brazen strike on Soleimani and the commander of Iraq’s Shia paramilitary forces (PMF) Abu Mahdi al-Mohandes has only served to hastened an inevitable future American departure from the country. Some even speculate that’s what Trump may have secretly calculated all along in a “take major action” (against Iran’s top elite commander) and “get out” kind of way.

END

YEMEN/SAUDI ARABIA

IRANIAN BACKED, Yemen Houthis launch a failed missile attack on a Saudi Aramco facility.

(zerohedge)

Yemen’s Houthis Launch Failed Missile Attack On Saudi Aramco Facility

Yemen’s Houthis claimed Wednesday its Shia militants targeted Saudi Aramco facilities with a missile strike in Jizan on the Red Sea in the kingdom’s south, which caused a brief surge in oil, jumping above $54 a barrel in New York, before it slipped back down to a nearly 3-month low on reports that no missiles reached their intended targets, leading to skepticism about the Houthi statement.

An hour after the announcement briefly rattled oil markets, a Saudi oil official indicated that all missiles were intercepted by Saudi defenses — though details still remain unclear and unconfirmed, especially the timeline of when the attack allegedly happened.

 

Image source: Shutterstock

It marks the first such Houthi attack on Aramco facilities since the major Sept.14 drone and missile strikes which severely damaged two facilities deep inside Saudi Arabia, knocking all the country’s production offline for at least a day.

Reuters reports: “Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saria did not give a timeframe for the assault.” State oil giant Aramco itself has not issued confirmation or denial.

And further, the Houthi military statement indicated “the group that has been battling a Saudi-led military coalition for nearly five years had also targeted non-energy Saudi facilities near the border with Yemen,” according to Reuters.

Typically either the Saudis or Houthis themselves release some level of video evidence for such major rocket attacks. In past rocket attacks from Yemen onto Saudi soil, Riyadh has released images of missile debris which fell short of the intended target. The Saudis have yet to provide proof that an “intercept” did in fact take place.

The Jazan facility, while not a crude oil production or major export site, is home to a 400,000 barrel-a-day Aramco refinery, which is further expected to operate at full capacity by the end of 2020.

END
OFF COAST OF UAE
At one pm est this happened:  an incident off the coast of UAE:  a USA ship is on fire:
(zerohedge)

U.S. Navy Confirms “Incident” Off Coast Of UAE As Oil Tanker Burns

Update (1300ET): It appears the ship on fire is not a tanker…

TankerTrackers.com, Inc.⚓️🛢@TankerTrackers

The OSPREY is not a tanker, but a heavy load carrier. https://twitter.com/katiemcque/status/1222558796502966272 

Katie McQue@katiemcque

BREAKING: Ship on fire is MV Osprey. Position 25 degrees, 34.8 055degrees, 0.5 East , according to distrsss call #OOTT #tankerfire #UAE #Sharjah

 

Footage of a crude tanker off the coast of the Emirate of Sharjah, UAE, surfaced on Twitter about an hour ago.

Thick black smoke is seen billowing from the mid-section of a massive crude tanker moored off the coast.

Katie McQue@katiemcque

BREAKING: Footage of Tanker on fire off the coast of the Emirate if Sharjah, UAE

Embedded video

The U.S. Navy’s Fifth Fleet has just confirmed there’s an incident off the coast of UAE’S SHARJAH but didn’t describe what was happening.

The “incident” comes hours after Yemen’s Houthi rebels launched a missile attack on a Saudi Aramco facility, but an official report has indicated missile defense systems intercepted the projectiles before they could hit their intended targets.

Tensions in the Middle East are surging again as crude plunges almost 20%, or just about the technical level of declaring a bear market, in 14 sessions as the coronavirus outbreak across China has traders more worried about a reduced demand outlook.

endIran/USA

It seems that Iran was telling the truth that there were casualties on their strike of the uSA embassy in Iraq two weeks ago.  We now have an update and it now seems that 50 American service members suffered traumatic brain injuries.

(zerohedge)

 

Not So Subtle Cover-Up: From Zero To 50 Iran Attack Injuries In Under 3 Weeks

The Pentagon casually slipped in an update to their ever evolving casualty numbers from the Jan.8 Iranian ballistic missile attack on Ayn al-Assad air base in Iraq, which the American public was initially told resulted in “no casualties” and that “all is well”:

The Pentagon now says 50 American military service members suffered traumatic brain injuries following Iran’s Jan. 8 missile attack on a base in western Iraq that was housing the U.S. military personnel. — ABC News

 

Damage at Ayn al-Assad military air base in the western Iraqi province of Anbar. AFP via Getty

“Of these 50, 31 total service members were treated in Iraq and returned to duty, including 15 of the additional service members who have been diagnosed since the previous report,” Pentagon spokesperson Lt. Col. Thomas Campbell said late Tuesday. “Eighteen service members have been transported to Germany for further evaluation and treatment.”

To review, Trump’s first address to the nation following the major unprecedented attack on US forces in retaliation for Qassem Soleimani’s death indicated “no casualties” and that “all is well!”. Two weeks later, the Pentagon stunned reporters by indicating 11 US troops actually suffered traumatic brain injury (TBI).

And two days after this the count shot up to 34, and it became evident that among these up to half had serious enough injuries to be evacuated to hospitals outside the country, with most transferred to Germany, and some later taken back to the United States for continued observation.

Four days following last Friday’s “34” update, we’re now up to 50 troops injured. In summary, the figures went from zero to 11 to 34 to 50… and who knows where from here.

 

Ayn al-Assad military air base, via the AP.

It must also be remembered that US officials and media pundits slammed Iranian state media for its repeat claims that the Jan.8 ballistic missile attack resulted in major casualties. Iranian media went so far as to report emergency medical evacuations of US personnel from the scene. US officials scoffed and laughed at this “fake news” at the time — and just days ago the semi-official major Iranian media outlet Fars News had its English news website taken offline by order of US Treasury for sanctions violations and state propaganda.

But now we know the accurate headline in the wake of the attack should have read: “50 Americans Injured, Some Seriously…”.

So here’s the awkward truth: Iranian state media was closer to the truth than the Pentagon and US administration propaganda the public was fed.

The Pentagon has claimed the “concussion-like symptoms” didn’t immediately present themselves. Yet now we’re talking 50 troops close enough to missile impact sites to suffer head trauma — a number so large it would be impossible for the chain of command to “miss” what was the single most important attack on a US facility in years.

This evolving casualty count should be a major scandal, yet it’s barely elicited a yawn in the mainstream media.

As we’ve repeatedly pointed out since last summer’s “tanker wars”, Trump has painted himself into a corner on Iran, jumping from escalation to escalation (to this latest “point of no return big one” in the form of the ordered Soleimani assassination) — yet all the while hoping to avoid a major direct war. The situation reached a climax where there were “no outs” (Trump was left with two ‘bad options’ of either back down or go to war).

Thus when Iran finally launched a serious retaliation Jan.8, the “out” was simply to lie. The “no casualties” cover-up line was offered so Trump could quickly move on without the political pressure of being “forced” into retaliation tit-for-tat style, leading to war.

Ironically, it might be the first time the American public was force-fed naked war propaganda for the sake of not going to war.

end

6.Global Issues

China/the Globe

For a city that is supposed to be quarantined many planes are leaving Wuhan yesterday and today destinations are Toronto , San Francisco and many other nations

(zerohedge)

Many Planes Actually Made It Out Of Wuhan Yesterday And Today

Update (1300ET)The Toronto Sun reports Coronavirus control at airports is pretty much a leap of faith.

Just like that, more than 1,000 people on three flights from China walked into Canada without medical screening.

If the coronavirus happens to be incubating in any one of those passengers who arrived at Pearson International Airport’s Terminal 3 on Monday, they are now mingling with Canadian residents.

 

“I was asked when we got to the Canada Custom’s inspection point if I had been in Wuhan in the past 14 days or if I had a fever,” said Jerry, who with his wife, travelled from Shanghai.

“I said no.”

That one-word answer got him through.

*  *  *

As MishTalk’s Mike Shedlock detailed earlier, many planes managed to get out of Wuhan over the past few days. Let’s take a look as to where.

Wuhan to San Francisco Today

Wuhan to San Francisco 00:00-06:00 – No Flights

Wuhan to San Francisco 06:00-12:00 – No Flights

Wuhan to San Francisco 12:00-18:00 – Three Flights to San Francisco (China South, American, Delta) are listed as “Scheduled“.

Wuhan to San Francisco 18:00-00:00 – No Flights

The huge problem with Flightstats is you have to click on every flight to see if it is scheduled, cancelled, unknown, landed, or in the air. There are thousands of flights per day from some Chinese cities.

I do not believe those SFO scheduled flight left or ever will. See Addendum.

All Departures from Wuhan Monday, January 27

I pieced that together from Wuhan Tianhe International Airport WUH Departures for 2020-01-27.

I only showed confirmed landings.

All Departures from Wuhan Tuesday, January 28

Escape From Wuhan

This post is an update to Hundreds of Virus Carrying Planes Headed for US, London, Paris, Vancouver

In that article I commented “Wuhan may be locked down. The rest of China isn’t yet.”

This update shows it is indeed still possible to escape Wuhan, then depart from some other city to the US, Japan, Europe, or elsewhere.

Please note that Scientists Estimate 44,000 Virus Cases, Doubling Every 6 Days

This is confirmation that the US should have halted all planes from China long ago.

Addendum

This Tweet From SFO Airport Official

Account# 88888@dunnde

now looks like flight 659 from china southern departing Wuhan has in fact landed at SFO
i used the fly SFO websitehttps://www.flysfo.com/flight-info/flight-status?flightSearch=cz659&flightTypes=D 

View image on Twitter

San Francisco International Airport (SFO) ✈️

@flySFO

The flight tracking app you are looking at has not updated with the correct origin city. That flight came from Guangzhou (CAN) and not Wuhan (WUH). Flights originally were from CAN-WUH and then WUH-SFO. However flights are not stopping in WUH and going direct from CAN-SFO.

See San Francisco International Airport (SFO) ✈️‘s other Tweets

“The flight tracking app you are looking at has not updated with the correct origin city. That flight came from Guangzhou (CAN) and not Wuhan (WUH). Flights originally were from CAN-WUH and then WUH-SFO. However flights are not stopping in WUH and going direct from CAN-SFO.”

So SFO landing was really from CAN. The rest of the departures do seem to be from WUH.

end

With the troubles at Boeing leading the way, the coronovarius will no doubt create a one two punch against the airline industry something that they may never bounce back form

(zerohedge)

American & Chinese Airlines May Never Bounce Back From The Coronavirus Outbreak

Airlines around the world have already taken a hit thanks to Boeing, now the coronavirus outbreak is set to kick the industry while it’s already down. And the US and China will be hit especially hard.

Plenty of countries are cutting off are limiting flights to China right now. Air Canada just announced its cancelling select flights, South Korea, Hong Kong and other Asian countries have either cut off travel, or are reducing flights and screening for symptoms of nCoV, which has already killed more than 100 people in China, and possibly a Thai woman in India as well. But when it’s all said and done, air traffic between the US and China might never really recover, dealing a serious blow to both Chinese and American airlines at a time when their shares are already taking a beating.

In a recent column, Forbes contributor Michael Boyd warned that air   said that even with solid data, is full of unknowns. But one thing we can rely upon in aviation forecasting is that it’s unforeseen factors that suddenly spring out of left field that will drive change.

Two years ago, the future looked bright. China’s burgeoning middle class was traveling more, and the US was a perennial favorite destination, not just for students, but for travelers and shoppers looking to buy luxury goods on NYC’s Fifth Avenue, or SoHo.

But by the middle of 2019, with the trade war, having raged for more than a year, in full swing, China’s economy started to show signs of strain, as growth started to cool from a frantic, often double-digit pace of expansion, eventually notching its weakest quarter of growth in 29 years.

However, the slowdown from the trade war and the drag of China’s economy at least allowed the airlines to easily model slowing traffic and coordinate accordingly. Now, that’s all gone out the window: the coronavirus has arrived and that’s created many new unknowns.

After the bell on Tuesday, Starbucks announced that the coronavirus will likely hurt growth in its international business, which is heavily dependent on China. The chain seemed to already have its hands full competing against a slew of new local competitors.

It’s a virtual certainty that the airlines will follow up with similar warnings, though theirs will likely be much more dismal, and preceded by a wave of downgrades to the Street’s projections.

Boyd, whose analysis focuses on the airline industry, said his previous forecast of 7.08 million passengers on US-China flights in 2020 is “now history,” and he barely knows where to begin to put together the next set of forecasts. The damage will linger for six months or longer, he added.

Take it to the bank: this epidemic will materially affect the flight levels between China and the United States, because airlines don’t like to fly nearly-empty airplanes.

Perhaps the word “affect” is too weak. The reality is that this event is going to devastate traffic for a period of at least six months or maybe longer. It will depend on how much this epidemic spreads, and how the Chinese government addresses it.

My consultancy had estimated that U.S.-China flights would carry about 7.08 million passengers for 2020, adding inbound and outbound travelers.

That number is now history.

It’s possible that the number of passengers on US-China flights could fall by 75% in 2020. It’s possible that this supposition is optimistic. As leisure travel dries up, more than half of the passenger base for these flights will disappear.

As of today, and depending on the developments in China, through this June we are forecasting at least a 75% drop in passenger traffic between the USA and China. That figure sounds extreme, but as the knowledge of the nature and the extent of the new virus grows, it may actually be optimistic.

Cutting to the chase, airline flights between China and the USA are going to be financial disasters. That assumes, somewhat optimistically, they all will even continue to operate.

For one thing, leisure traffic – about 60% of the passenger base – is effectively ended. Gone. No more. Evaporated.

In response, flights to the US from China’s second-tier cities will likely become too costly to continue (since near-empty planes rack up tremendous losses pretty quickly). These routes may never reopen.

Boyd jokes that these flights will soon be carrying nothing but “sailboat fuel” (get it?). Before the virus, the average flight between China and the US was 83% filled to capacity. Expect that figure to drop to below 50%. And for the remaining airports that continue running flights between the US and China, well, those flights are about to become major loss-leaders. In the US, airports that are common gateways for Chinese travelers will take the brunt of the damage: San Francisco’s international airport will see about 344,000 fewer passengers, while LA will see 702,000 fewer passengers.

On the other hand, trade between the US and China is expected to climb now that Beijing has pledged to increase imports of ag products, energy and other items from the US to the tune of $200 billion using old-fashioned, centrally-planned mandates for state companies. However, some are skeptical that this is a promise that Beijing intends to keep.

Though if epidemiologists are correct in their projections about the coronavirus’s infectious potential, then we might all have more important things to worry about very soon.

end

 

Stephen Roach correctly states that this black swan event of the coronavirus should send the world into a deep recession or depression.

(Stephen Roach)

Coronavirus Could Shock World Into Recession, Stephen Roach Warns

Former Morgan Stanley Asia chairman Stephen Roach published an op-ed on Monday (Jan. 27) via Project Syndicate and also appeared on CNBC’s “Trading Nation” to warn about how the global economy could already be in a period of vulnerability, where an exogenous shock, such as the coronavirus, could be the trigger for the next worldwide recession.

Roch reminds us that a shock of some sort is usually the cause of most recessions that propagates through the economy. For several years, the Federal Reserve’s tightening, which started in late 2017 and ended in the summer of 2019, slowed the global economy. Then the trade war blew up complex supply chains and weakened developed and emerging economies even more, from 1Q18 through 3Q19. These two forces opened a cycle of vulnerability for the global economy that would make it susceptible to a shock. However, it was anyone’s guess what that shock would be until now.

“With the world economy operating dangerously close to stall speed, the confluence of ever-present shocks and a sharply diminished trade cushion raises serious questions about financial markets’ increasingly optimistic view of global economic prospects,” Roach said via his op-ed in Project Syndicate.

On Trading Nation, Roach said, “big shocks for weak economies” could trigger a recession.

He cautioned that coronavirus could remain a problem in the months ahead.

“It’s a frightening outbreak, especially when it spreads this rapidly,” he said.

So far, more than a dozen Chinese cities are locked down, tens of millions of people are confined to their homes, and factories and businesses are closed, as the world’s second-largest economy grinds to a halt.

And perhaps Roach has found the root cause of the next global recession: coronavirus.

As he ominously concludes, it won’t take much to knock this over the edge:

Historically, the rapid expansion of cross-border trade has been an important part of the global growth cushion that shields the world economy from all-too-frequent shocks. From 1990 to 2008, annual growth in world trade was fully 82% faster than world GDP growth.

Now, however, reflecting the unusually sharp post-crisis slowdown in global trade growth, this cushion has shrunk dramatically, to just 13% over the 2010-19 period. With the world economy operating dangerously close to stall speed, the confluence of ever-present shocks and a sharply diminished trade cushion raises serious questions about financial markets’ increasingly optimistic view of global economic prospects.

end

China.Globe

Meet Peng, probably the man behind the release of the coronavirus. This guy has been studying how bats can live with ebola and the coronavirus without harm

(zerohedge)

 

Is This The Man Behind The Global Coronavirus Pandemic?

In light of growing speculation, most of it within less than official circles, that the official theory for the spread of the Coronavirus epidemic, namely because someone ate bat soup at a Wuhan seafood and animal market…

… is a fabricated farce, and that the real reason behind the viral spread is because a weaponized version of the coronavirus (one which may have originally been obtained from Canada), was released by Wuhan’s Institute of Virology (accidentally or not), a top, level-4 biohazard lab which was studying “the world’s most dangerous pathogens“, perhaps it would be a good idea for the same Wuhan Institute of Virology to remove the following “help wanted” notice, posted on November 18, 2019, according to which the institute is seeking to hire one or two post-doc fellows, who will use “bats to research the molecular mechanism that allows Ebola and SARS-associated coronaviruses to lie dormant for a long time without causing diseases.”

The right candidate will:

 

  • Have obtained or is about to obtain a PhD in life science/biomedical related fields;
  • Have a reliable and rigorous work style, with strong independent scientific research ability and teamwork spirit;
  • Have strong English communication and writing skills, have research papers published in the international mainstream academic journals
  • Have a cell biology, immunology, genomics and other relevant background experience is preferred;

The full job posting, which can still be found on the Wuhan Institute of Virology website can be found here (and screengrabbed below as it will be gone within a few hours).

And google translated:

Why is this notable? Because as it turns out, this is a job posting for the lab of Dr. Peng Zhou (周鹏), Ph.D., a researcher at the Wuhan Institute of Virology and Leader of the Bat Virus Infection and Immunization Group. Some more on Zhou’s background from the Institute (google translated):

He received his PhD in Wuhan Virus Research Institute in 2010 and has worked on bat virus and immunology in Australia and Singapore. In 2009 , he took the lead in starting the research on the immune mechanism of bat long-term carrying and transmitting virus in the world. So far, he has published more than 30 SCI articles, including the first and corresponding author’s Nature , Cell Host Microbe and PNAS . At present, research on bat virus and immunology is continuing, and it has received support from the National “You Qing” Fund, the pilot project of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, and the major project of the Ministry of Science and Technology.

Below is a list of several recent papers published by Dr. Zhou

Which brings us to the punchline: courtesy of the Wuhan institute of virology, here is a press release from Dr. Zhou’s lab titled “How bats carry viruses without getting sick”:

Bats are known to harbor highly pathogenic viruses like Ebola, Marburg, Hendra, Nipah, and SARS-CoV, and yet they do not show clinical signs of disease. In a paper published in the journal Cell Host & Microbe on February 22, scientists at the Wuhan Institute of Virology in China find that in bats, an antiviral immune pathway called the STING-interferon pathway is dampened, and bats can maintain just enough defense against illness without triggering a heightened immune reaction.

“We believe there is a balance between bats and the pathogens they carry,” says senior author Peng Zhou. “This work demonstrated that in order to maintain a balance with viruses, bats may have evolved to dampen certain pathways.”

In humans and other mammals, an immune-based over-response to one of these and other pathogenic viruses can trigger severe illness. For example, in humans, an activated STING pathway is linked with severe autoimmune diseases.

“In human history, we have been chasing infectious diseases one after another,” says Zhou, “but bats appear to be a ‘super-mammal’ to these deadly viruses.” By identifying a weakened but not defunct STING pathway, researchers have some new insight into how bats fine-tune antiviral defenses to balance an effective, but not an overt, response against viruses.

The authors hypothesize that this defense strategy evolved as part of three interconnected features of bat biology: they are flying mammals, have a long lifespan, and host a large viral reservoir.

“Adaptation to flight likely caused positive selection of multiple bat innate immune and DNA damage repair genes,” Zhou says. These adaptations may have shaped certain antiviral pathways (STING, interferon, and others) to make them good viral reservoir hosts and achieve a tolerable balance.”

And just in case, here is a google-translated press release from Jan 18, 2019 describing the achievements of Dr. Peng Zhou:

Wuhan has the first person in the global bat immunity research: “I rushed forward with a sword”

Changjiang Daily Financial Media May 4 hearing last month as they tied for first author made a “natural”, in recent years, the Chinese Academy of Sciences Wuhan virus after 80 young researchers Zhou Peng has been in the “natural”, “American Academy of Sciences ”And other international authoritative magazines published 28 papers, becoming academic stars. In an interview with reporters recently, he introduced that young scientists do not rely on genius to hold, but rely on “super confident”.

It is understood that Zhou Peng is the pioneer of global bat immune system research. “Bats carry viruses but do not get sick. They have not been researched by scientists before, and certainly have specificity different from other species, but this is like you know the beginning and Ending without knowing how the story happened. “ After more than 10 years of research, Zhou Peng discovered that an antiviral immune channel called “interferon gene-stimulating protein-interferon” in the bat’s body was inhibited, so that the bat could just resist the disease without triggering a strong immune response. The results were published in Cells, Hosts and Microorganisms, which aroused the attention of the academic community.

Zhou Peng, a student of undergraduate bioengineering, experienced SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) in his junior year, which made him interested in the virus: “A small virus makes the world mess.” He was admitted to the Wuhan Institute of Virology of the Chinese Academy of Sciences at the postgraduate level, and studied under Shi Zhengli, a bat expert. Focusing on the virus carried by the bat, then I was wondering if the bat’s immune system is special. 

After graduating from the PhD, he entered the Australian Animal Health Laboratory and became the first person in the global bat immunity research. “I went through 4 years of trial and error, groped in the dark, and hit the South Wall numerous times. I still remember a ‘darkest moment’ ‘In the local cold winter, I was holding the frostbite knee, sitting at the beach, and asking myself why this was the case.’

He began to learn Australian jokes and inspired himself. In 2016, during postdoctoral studies at Duke University-National University of Singapore Medical School, he was concerned that a certain interferon in bats is always maintained at a high level. This paper became the cover article of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, “Bat Immunity “This door was opened, and more and more people in the world are paying attention to this field.” Our generation, when we were in college, watched “The Forrest Gump” and “Redemption of Shawshank” and taught us stupidity and perseverance. I I feel like I am carrying a sword and rushing forward. ”

After returning to China in 2016, Zhou Peng returned to his alma mater to become a little-known young researcher. “In the long run, bats carry the virus without getting sick. It is hoped that humans can learn how to fight the virus, but this is still far from industrialization. Far, the road ahead is long, and we must remain ‘super confident’ and continue to move forward. “(Reporter Li Jia correspondent Chen teased Li Li intern Luo Yameng)

And here is the man, the myth, the bat-god himself: Peng Zhou.

 

Peng Zhou

His bio (source):

Peng Zhou, Ph.D., researcher, team leader of bat virus infection and immunity. He successively obtained bachelor’s and doctoral degrees from Henan University (2004) and Wuhan Institute of Virology, Chinese Academy of Sciences (2010). During his doctorate, he was sent to the Australian Animal Health Laboratory for study. He then carried out research work at Duke-Nus Medical College in Australia and Singapore. He has long been engaged in the research of new virus epidemiology and bat antiviral immunity, revealing that bats carry SARS, MERS, and Ebola for a long time but do not have their own immune mechanisms.

Currently he is hosting and undertaking 3 projects of the National Natural Science Foundation of China, and the Chinese Academy of Sciences Special project and a major national science and technology project – a major project for the prevention and control of infectious diseases. Currently published 28 SCI papers, including Nature, Cell Host Microbe, PNAS and other articles SCI papers, including Nature, Cell Host Microbe, PNAS and other articles published by the first or corresponding author. It is at the forefront of the world in the field of bat and virus research.

So to summarize:

  1. One of China’s top virology and immunology experts was and still works at China’s top-rated biohazard lab, the Wuhan Institute of Virology, which some have affectionately called the real Umbrella Corp.
  2. Since 2009, Peng has been the leading Chinese scientist researching the immune mechanism of bats carrying and transmitting lethal viruses in the world.
  3. His primary field of study is researching how and why bats can be infected with some of the most nightmarish viruses in the world including Ebola, SARS and Coronavirus, and not get sick.
  4. He was genetically engineering various immune pathways (such as the STING pathway in bats) to make the bats more or less susceptible to infection, in the process potentially creating a super-resistant bug.
  5. As part of his studies, Peng also researched mutant Coronavirus strains that overcame the natural immunity of some bats; these are “superbug” Coronavirus strains, which are not resistant to any natural immune pathway, and now appear to be out in the world.
  6. As of mid-November, his lab was actively hiring inexperienced post-docs to help conduct his research into super-Coronaviruses and bat infections.
  7. Peng’s work on virology and bat immunology has received support from the National “You Qing” Fund, the pilot project of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, and the major project of the Ministry of Science and Technology.

* * *

Something tells us, if anyone wants to find out what really caused the coronavirus pandemic that has infected thousands of people in China and around the globe, they should probably pay Dr. Peng a visit.

Or at least start with an email: Dr Peng can be reached at peng.zhou@wh.iov.cnand his phone# is 87197311.

end

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings WEDNESDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.0996 DOWN .0023 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /ALL GREEN

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 109.10 DOWN 0.031 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.3008   DOWN   0.0014  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/BREXIT EXTENDED TO JAN 31/2020//

USA/CAN 1.3178 UP .0015 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  WEDNESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL BY 8 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1219 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED 

 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED 

 

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0,53%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED 

 

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED 

 

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP  0.56% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 163.69  POINTS OR 0.71%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1571.00

silver:$17.49-

Early WEDNESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 1.63% !!! DOWN 3 IN POINTS from TUESDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 2.09 DOWN 2  IN BASIS POINTS from TUESDAY night.

USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 98.10 UP 8 CENT(S) from  TUESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers WEDNESDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now your closing WEDNESDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.31% DOWN 3 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.05%  DOWN 1   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.30%//DOWN 3 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:0.95 DOWN 8 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 65 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.38% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.33% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR WEDNESDAY

Closing currency crosses for WEDNESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1003  DOWN   DOWN .0015 or 15 basis points

USA/Japan: 109.16 UP .016 OR YEN UP 2  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3008 DOWN .0015 POUND DOWN 15  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 37 basis points to 1.3200

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT XX    ON SHORE  (DOWN)..

 

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.9671  (YUAN DOWN)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  5.9689 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.05%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 4 IN basis points from TUESDAY at 1.61 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.07 DOWN 4 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 98.12 UP 10  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for WEDNESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 2.88  0.04%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 21.31 POINTS OR .16%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 29.07 POINTS 0.49%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 62.50 POINTS or 0.66%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 137.10 POINTS OR 0.57%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 53.25 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 60.05 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE FALLS:    62.62  THE CROSS HIGHER BY 0.36 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE LOWER BY 36 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.38 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  53.09//

 

 

BRENT :  59.65

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 1.58..down 7 basis pts…

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.04..down 7 basis pts..

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.10-05 ( DOWN 17   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:109.08 DOWN .054 (YEN UP 5 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 98.09 UP 7 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.3014 DOWN 9  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 5.9622

 

 

the Russian rouble 62.55   DOWN 0.31 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( DOWN 31 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3203 DOWN 39 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  XX0  (ONSHORE)/

 

 

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 6.9692 (OFFSHORE)

 

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.38%

 

The Dow closed UP 5.48 POINTS OR 0.06%

 

NASDAQ closed UP 11.60 POINTS OR 0.04%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  16.39 CLOSED UP .11

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 1.769%//libor dropping like a stone

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

Copper, Crude, & The Yield Curve Crumble As Fed Flops, Virus Death-Count Pops

Stocks remain unfazed as coronavirus deaths and cases are exploding higher…

Hope has screamed higher since The Fed started expanding its balance sheet but ‘hard’ actual economic data has collapse…

Source: Bloomberg

But stocks are “Not A Bubble”…

Source: Bloomberg

“All Clear?”

China cash markets remain closed but futures are desperately trying to stabilize around 11-13% below last week highs…

Source: Bloomberg

European stocks rallied modestly today, extending yesterday’s gains. Italy remains the only market in the green on the week with Germany weakest…

Source: Bloomberg

Mixed picture in US market today with Trannies best, Dow managing tiny gains (thanks to AAPL and BA), Nasdaq barely green, and Small Caps and the S&P red…

 

Banks did not like what Jay Powell was selling today…

Source: Bloomberg

Equity and credit protection costs jumped today and remain notably elevated from last week…

Source: Bloomberg

Meanwhile, options positioning is signaling a likely rise in vol is imminent…

Source: Bloomberg

Both bonds and stocks were bid today – widening the divergence between the two once again…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields plunged today almost uniformly down 7bps across the curve… (2Y -5bps)

Source: Bloomberg

30Y Yields closed at their lowest since October 8th…

Source: Bloomberg

The yield curve is pushing back closer to inversion in the key 3s10s spread…

Source: Bloomberg

But a lot of the belly of the curve is inverted…

Source: Bloomberg

The Dollar round-tripped again today – the sixth day in a row that dollar-selling hit after Europe closed – weakenig notably after The Fed…

Source: Bloomberg

Yuan continues to refuse top play along with US equity market’s optimism…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin continues to push higher, above $9400 today to its highest in 3 months…

 

Commodities were mixed with Crude and Copper sliding (China virus fears) and PMs modestly higher…

Source: Bloomberg

Copper down for the 10th straight day…

Source: Bloomberg

Additionally, Soybean prices tumbled again – hardly a good sign for the phase one deal being completed…

Source: Bloomberg

WTI tagged a $52 handle today…

Finally, with a h/t to @TaviCosta, commodity markets are behaving as if an equity selloff is imminent…

Source: Bloomberg

Traders are increasingly hoping for more rate cuts in 2020 (now pricing in at least 1.6 cuts by year-end)…

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON/FOMC

Fed Leaves Rates Unch, Extends Repo Bailout Facility, ,Downgrades Consumer Health

Since the last FOMC meeting on Dec 11th, a lot has happened:

  • World War 3 fears after US killing Soleimani and Iran retaliation
  • Iran downs Ukrainian plane
  • Trump impeachment
  • Russian PM resigns
  • Philippines volcano eruption
  • Turkey earthquake
  • Kashmir avalanche
  • Australian fires
  • Indonesia floods
  • Kobe dead
  • New strand of coronavirus goes globally viral

And while gold has reacted as one might expect to this chaos (and bonds), we note that stocks just refuse to drop…

Source: Bloomberg

As stocks have soared on the back of The Fed’s dramatic balance sheet expansion (but we note that expansion has slowed in recent weeks)…

Source: Bloomberg

But do not forget the massive escalation in Fed-provided liquidity that is occurring daily in the repo markets…

Source: Bloomberg

But while volatility has been suppressed, it is back at the same level as the Dec FOMC ahead of today’s statement…

And market participants are pricing in increasingly dovish behavior by The Fed…

Source: Bloomberg

Hope has screamed higher since The Fed started expanding its balance sheet but ‘hard’ actual economic data has collapse…

Source: Bloomberg

So all eyes today are on The Fed balance sheet (please keep printing or we’re all doomed) and any soothing comments from Powell on the impact of the Wuhan coronavirus (please say you’re monitoring and have the tools to manage it)…

As we mocked earlier, Sven Henrich has the best preview of what to expect…

Sven Henrich

@NorthmanTrader

Powell preview:

We see no bubbles.
Nothing we do juices stocks higher.
There’s uncertainty so we stay easy.
Rate hikes? Ha ha.
Rate cuts? Maybe, if the market wants them.
Wealth inequality is bad.
The Bezos party was awesome.

However, overall, expectations aren’t particularly high for any surprises: rates will almost certainly remain on hold at 1.50%-1.75%, with only a technical adjustment of a 5bp upward move on the IOER the most likely shift (after several downward adjustments previously).

 

*  *  *

Here are Bloomberg’s key takeaways from today’s FOMC decision:

  • For the second straight meeting, the Fed left the federal funds target range unchanged at 1.5%-1.75%, as expected, following last year’s three quarter-point cuts; the FOMC repeated language that rates are currently “appropriate” to support growth, jobs and inflation.
  • The Fed raised a secondary interest rate, covering banks’ excess reserves, by 5 basis points to 1.6% in what officials will likely characterize as a technical adjustment to maintain control of the benchmark federal funds rate. A related tool, the rate on overnight reverse repos, also rose by 5 basis points, to 1.5%. The central bank had previously telegraphed in meeting minutes that it might make such moves.
  • In another move telegraphed earlier this month, the central bank extended its plan to address strains in money markets, saying it will inject funds through repo operations at least through April, compared with January previously. That will help cover any additional volatility during the U.S. tax-filing season, when payments would reduce reserve levels.
  • The Fed reiterated its plan to buy Treasury bills at least into the second quarter.
  • While most language on the economy was unchanged, the Fed downgraded household spending, saying it has been rising at a “moderate pace,” ahead of GDP data expected to show consumption cooled in the fourth quarter. The December statement had referred to a “strong pace” of spending gains.
  • The unanimous decision reflected support from the four regional Fed presidents who rotated into voting slots this month, including Minneapolis’s Neel Kashkari, Dallas’s Robert Kaplan, Patrick Harker of Philadelphia and Loretta Mester of Cleveland.

Now we all wait for the press conference for any hope on rescuing us all from coronavirus.

*  *  *

Full Redline below:

Perhaps most ominously from the statement, while most language on the economy was unchanged, the Fed said household spending has been rising at a “moderate pace,” ahead of GDP data expected to show consumption cooled in the fourth quarter. The December statement had referred to a “strong pace” of spending gains.

END

Fed extends our “temporary” repo operations from January to least April

(zerohedge)

Fed Extends “Temporary” Repo Operations From January To “At Least” April, Hikes IOER

While the Fed’s January statement was a snoozer, with the only difference from the December statement being the downgrade in the pace of household spending rising at a “moderate” vs “strong” pace, there were far more notable changes in the latest monetary policy implementation note, which – as many expected – saw the rate which the Fed is paying on excess reserves (IOER) hiked by 5bps to 1.6% , or “10 basis points above the bottom of the target range for the federal funds rate” which currently is at 1.50%.

The other notable change from the December meeting is that the Fed is now extending its duration of its repo operations, which in December were supposed to conclude in January 2020, to “at least” April 2020.

And while there was no comment or change to the Fed’s QE4, it was this extension to the deadline of repo that boosted stocks in kneejerk reaction, as it means the Fed continues to believe the crisis situation that emerged after the September repo crisis will continue through at least April, even though repo rates have long ago stabilized.

The Committee also directs the Desk to continue conducting term and overnight repurchase agreement operations at least through April 2020 to ensure that the supply of reserves remains ample even during periods of sharp increases in non-reserve liabilities, and to mitigate the risk of money market pressures that could adversely affect policy implementation

 

The full statement is below:

 

The Federal Reserve has made the following decisions to implement the monetary policy stance announced by the Federal Open Market Committee in its statement on December 11, 2019:

  • The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to maintain the interest rate paid on required and excess reserve balances at 1.55 percent, effective December 12, 2019.
  • As part of its policy decision, the Federal Open Market Committee voted to authorize and direct the Open Market Desk at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, until instructed otherwise, to execute transactions in the System Open Market Account in accordance with the following domestic policy directive:
    • “Effective December 12, 2019, the Federal Open Market Committee directs the Desk to undertake open market operations as necessary to maintain the federal funds rate in a target range of 1-1/2 to 1-3/4 percent. In light of recent and expected increases in the Federal Reserve’s non-reserve liabilities, the Committee directs the Desk to continue purchasing Treasury bills at least into the second quarter of 2020 to maintain over time ample reserve balances at or above the level that prevailed in early September 2019. The Committee also directs the Desk to continue conducting term and overnight repurchase agreement operations at least through January 2020 to ensure that the supply of reserves remains ample even during periods of sharp increases in non-reserve liabilities, and to mitigate the risk of money market pressures that could adversely affect policy implementation. In addition, the Committee directs the Desk to conduct overnight reverse repurchase operations (and reverse repurchase operations with maturities of more than one day when necessary to accommodate weekend, holiday, or similar trading conventions) at an offering rate of 1.45 percent, in amounts limited only by the value of Treasury securities held outright in the System Open Market Account that are available for such operations and by a per-counterparty limit of $30 billion per day.
    • The Committee directs the Desk to continue rolling over at auction all principal payments from the Federal Reserve’s holdings of Treasury securities and to continue reinvesting all principal payments from the Federal Reserve’s holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities received during each calendar month. Principal payments from agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities up to $20 billion per month will continue to be reinvested in Treasury securities to roughly match the maturity composition of Treasury securities outstanding; principal payments in excess of $20 billion per month will continue to be reinvested in agency mortgage-backed securities. Small deviations from these amounts for operational reasons are acceptable.
    • The Committee also directs the Desk to engage in dollar roll and coupon swap transactions as necessary to facilitate settlement of the Federal Reserve’s agency mortgage-backed securities transactions.”
  • In a related action, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to approve the establishment of the primary credit rate at the existing level of 2.25 percent.

end

ii)Market data/USA

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

Boeing

I am not so sure that Boeing can survive:  they report a 4 billion revenue miss, announce a 220 billion in 737 max costs and cut 787 production.  With all of that its stock surges

(zerohedge)

Boeing Reports Epic $4 Billion Revenue Miss, Announces $20BN In 737 MAX Costs, Cuts 787 Production; Stock Surges

If there ever was a “kitchen sink” quarter, Boeing just had it.

Moments ago, the ailing US aerospace giant reported Q4 earnings which prompted traders to do a double take after revenues cratered by 37% Y/Y, down from $28.3BN a year ago, and nearly $4 billion below the Wall Street consensus of $21.7BN; Q4 EPS was a whopping loss of $2.33/share, compared to expectations of a $1.47 profit, and down from $5.48 a year ago, resulting in the worst quarter in over two decades.

As a result of the abysmal quarter, Boeing posted an annual loss for the first time since 1997, the last time the plane maker had to shut down production of its cash-cow 737 jetliner. Core loss per share was $3.47 in 2019, down from $16.01  year ago, with operating cash flow tumbling to a $2.4BN cash burn.

Predictably, the biggest item here was the continued grounding of the 737 MAX or rather attempts to get it back in the air, and in Q4 the company laid out its latest estimated costs for the 737 Max grounding, which as Bloomberg put it, “is a doozy” at nearly $20 billion:

  • included $2.6B additional costs to produce aircraft in the 737 program accounting quantity in 4Q19; bringing the total for the full year to $6.3B
  • Booked an additional $2.6B pre-tax charge related to estimated potential concessions and other considerations to
    customers in 4Q19; bringing the total for the full year to $8.3B
  • Estimated an additional $4 billion in “abnormal production costs” that it expects to book this year to cover extra expenses as it halts and then gradually resumes work in its 737 factory.

The full details of the 737MAX kitchen sinking can be found here:

The continued grounding of the 737 MAX means that Boeing’s commercial airplane inventory is now a record high, rising 26% from a year earlier as the company continues to produce planes that nobody wants to buy (as they can’t fly them).

But wait there’s more, because it’s not just 737MAX anymore: as had been leaked previously, Boeing also confirmed that it is cutting 787 Dreamliner output to 10/month in early 2021, a number which it expects to return back ti 12 planes/month in 2023 (but may not). One hopes this is not on the same ground as the, pardon the pun, 737 MAX grounding. Boeing also reported that the 787 deferred production cost in 4Q was $18.7 billion, that’s down from $19.8 billion in 3Q and $23.0 billion a year ago.

And so, with earnings in freefall, it is hardly a surprise that operating cash flow plunged from $15.3BN to cash burn of $2.4BN in Q4 which however was modestly better than the $3.9BN expected…

… and with the company keeping cash at roughly $10BN, this meant that total debt rose to a new record high of $27.3BN in total debt.

Don’t worry though, the company’s dividend is safe and sound: Boeing paid $1.2 billion of dividends in the quarter.

Commenting on the result, the company’s new CEO Calhoun regurgitated the same old trite pablum we have come to expect from the company:

“We are focused on returning the 737 MAX to service safely and restoring the long-standing trust that the Boeing brand represents with the flying public. We are committed to transparency and excellence in everything we do. Safety will underwrite every decision, every action and every step we take as we move forward. Fortunately, the strength of our overall Boeing portfolio of businesses provides the financial liquidity to follow a thorough and disciplined recovery process.”

And while the stock initially tumbled on the abysmal results, it then promptly rebounded…

… as the sellside quickly decided that it can’t possibly get any worse, or as Bloomberg put it, Calhoun has “really brought forth everything,” trying to put a “bottom” on the bad news at Boeing so the jet maker can start trying to “take the news flow positive from here.”

As a reminder, this is what the market thought about last quarter too, and everyone knows what happened next.

Incidentally, for Boeing the only question that matters is a simple one: if and when the 737 MAX is allowed to return to the sky again, will anyone ever want to fly on that airplane again?

end

the USA trade deficit in goods jumps a strong 8.5% due to a rise in imports…no Chinese purchases of agriculture

(Market Watch)

U.S. trade deficit in goods jumps 8.5% in December, points to softer 4th quarter GDP

Jan 29, 2020 9:02 a.m. ET

Imports surge in final month of 2019 as China trade tensions ease

MarketWatch

The U.S. trade deficit is going to show a big increase in December.

The numbers: The U.S. trade deficit in goods jumped 8.5% in December as tensions with China eased and imports surged, potentially signaling somewhat slower growth in the fourth quarter.

The gap in goods climbed to $68.3 billion in the final month of 2019 from $63 billion in November, the government said Wednesday.

Economists polled by MarketWatch had estimated a $65.6 billion deficit in goods. The wider deficit could spur Wall Street forecasters to trim their forecasts for U.S. economic growth in the fourth quarter below 2%. Bigger deficits subtract from GDP.

Advance figures for wholesale trade, meanwhile, slipped 0.1% while retail inventories were unchanged in December. They were also weaker than expected.

What happened: Exports of goods rose 0.3% in December, but imports shot up 2.9%.

Imports had fallen in the prior two months as companies sought to time shipments based on the prospects of higher tariffs between the two countries amid an ongoing trade fight. Economists were expecting the deficit to rebound in December, but the increase was larger than forecast.

The government will release overall trade numbers for December next week, but the size of the trade deficit is closely tied to changes in exchanges of goods. Trade patterns involving services such as banking and tourism rarely change much from month to month.

Big picture: The bigger trade deficit in December could prompt Wall Street forecasters to trim estimates for U.S. economic growth in the fourth quarter. Yet it doesn’t show any fundamental change in the nature of an economy that’s growing a modest 2% or so.

–END-

iv) Swamp commentaries)

And Bernie thought that the nomination process was going to be fair at the DNC?  Shame on Bernie!

(zerohedge)

Bernie Bros Furious (Again) At “Hostile” DNC Appointments After Sanders Soars Into Dem Lead

It’s like deja vu all over again…

It would appear the Democratic Party elites are in full panic mode as despite all their (and their liberal media mates) efforts to bad-mouth Bernie Sanders, the Vermont Senator is soaring in the polls, overtaking ‘sleepy’ Joe both in surveys and at the bookies.

Today, The Hill reports that a new poll finds Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) leading the field of Democratic contenders in California, where about 40 percent of all the convention delegates will be allocated on Super Tuesday.

Sanders also leads in Iowa

And Sanders lead in New Hampshire…

And on the national level, is rapidly catching Biden…

And finally, where it really matters – putting your money where your mouth is – Bernie is exploding higher, surging past Biden to lead the Democratic Party nomination odds…

Source: Bloomberg

And it is not likely to slow down anytime soon, as the Sanders campaign announced Tuesday it would launch its first ads in Super Tuesday states, spending $2.5 million between California and Texas.

All of which is probably why – after failing with accusations of sexism and verbal attacks from Hilary and Obama – The DNC has stepped up to the plate (again) to disavow Democratic voters in America that they believe in any sort of democracy.

‘Bernie Bros’ are venting frustration at DNC Chairman Tom Perez over his initial appointments to the committees that will oversee the rules and party platform at the nominating convention in Milwaukee later this year.

Specifically, as The Hill reports, Sanders’ allies are incensed by two names in particular:

  • Former Rep. Barney Frank (D-Mass.), who will co-chair the rules committee, and
  • Hillary Clinton’s former campaign chairman John Podesta, who will have a seat on that committee.

The Sanders campaign unsuccessfully sought to have Frank removed from the rules committee in 2016, describing him as an “aggressive attack surrogate for the Clinton campaign.”

And, as The Hill details, Podesta, a longtime Washington political consultant and Clinton confidant, is viewed with contempt by some on the left. One of Podesta’s hacked emails from 2016 showed him asking a Democratic strategist where to “stick the knife in” Sanders, who lost the nomination to Clinton that year after a divisive primary contest.

“The appointments also include individuals that are outright hostile to Bernie Sanders and his supporters,” Yasmine Taeb, a DNC member from Virginia, exclaimed.

“It’s not the message the DNC should be sending to the grassroots right now when we’re all working aggressively to defeat the racist in the White House.”

 

“If the DNC believes it’s going to get away in 2020 with what it did in 2016, it has another thing coming,” Sanders’ campaign co-chair Nina Turner blasted.

Even the neocons are panicking…

Bill Kristol

@BillKristol

“For the socialist left…Bernie is too big to fail. The question is whether the Democratic Party, the only political force standing between Donald Trump and his authoritarian ambitions, will risk failing with him.” http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/01/bernie-sanders-electable-trump-2020-nomination-popular-socialism.html 

Running Sanders Against Trump Would Be an Act of Insanity

Bernie’s vulnerabilities in the general election would be enormous.

nymag.com

How will the military-industrial-complex survive under a socialist president?

As The Hill concludes, Perez and his team had nothing to do with the party’s disastrous 2016 convention, which took place under the cloud of WikiLeaks releasing hacked DNC emails that showed political bias in favor of Clinton over Sanders.

But Clinton’s recent return to the spotlight to bash Sanders and relitigate both her 2016 primary victory and general election loss has reignited tensions between establishment Democrats and grassroots liberals.

With Sanders rising in the polls, there are new fears among his supporters that the national party will stack the deck against him, particularly if there is a contested convention.

end

This is not good:  The Republicans do not have the votes to block witnesses.  So it looks like the Bolton, the Neo con will testify.  But they will also force Joe Bide, Hunter Biden and the whistleblower, Eric Ciaramella to testify. This will without a doubt get out of control fast.

(zerohedge)

 

GOP Doesn’t Have Votes To Block Witnesses: McConnell

Senate Republicans don’t have the votes to block impeachment witnesses, according to Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), paving the way for testimony from former national security adviser John Bolton – as well as an argument over whether the Bidens should be called as witnesses in the Senate trial of President Trump.

Witness testimony pushed by Congressional Democrats was largely considered off the table until an 11th hour leak of Bolton’s manuscript in which the former Trump handler claims the president tied military aid to Ukraine to  an investigation into allegations against the Bidens.

If you don’t believe the newspaper report, call the witnesses,” said Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) of Bolton’s account, which was first reported in the New York Times on Sunday evening. Schumer added that the witnesses Democrats have wanted to call include Bolton and acting White House chief of staff Mick Mulvaney, who oversaw the pause in funds as head of the Office of Management and Budget.

 

Republicans have said this week that if the Senate votes for more testimony, they want to call witnesses including Mr. Biden and his son, Hunter.

Sens. Mitt Romney (R., Utah) and Susan Collins (R., Maine) indicated on Monday that they were likely to favor witnesses. Sens. Lisa Murkowski (R., Alaska) and Lamar Alexander (R., Tenn.) remained open to the idea.

“I think that John Bolton probably has something to offer us,” Ms. Murkowski said Tuesday. –WSJ

According to Rep. Mark Meadows, the leak of Bolton’s manuscript is a “desperate attempt to resuscitate” Democrats’ “dying political dreams.”

“This leak was designed for one purpose and one purpose only, and that was to try to manipulate the thinking of my Republican colleagues in the Senate to encourage them to open it up and provide for more witnesses….,” Meadows said at a press conference, adding “My hypothesis is that this is part of a coordinated leak in order to change the narrative.” (via PJ Media)

 

MICHAEL SHERIDAN@BOOMER4K

!

Oh boy. @RepMarkMeadows says he has evidence that House Democrats coordinated the Bolton leak to get him to testify!

The question now is how the ‘establishment’ plans to handle the argument over whether the Bidens should testify after refusing for months to look at the underlying case.

end
This afternoon: after many meetings, the GOP senators now believe that they have the votes to block witnesses
(Bolton/the Hill)

GOP senators believe they have the votes to block witnesses

 

It was clear to Senate Republicans on Wednesday after a morning meeting between Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) that the question of having additional witnesses is settled and the Senate will vote Friday to wrap up the impeachment trial.

There was no discussion of witnesses at a Senate GOP lunch meeting Wednesday, which was held a couple hours after McConnell and Murkowski met for about 20 to 30 minutes.

That was seen as a sign by several senators that Democrats will fail to convince four Republicans to join them in calling for witnesses. Without a vote to hear from witnesses, the trial could end as soon as Friday.

“We’re going to get it done by Friday, hopefully,” Sen. Mike Rounds (R-S.D.) said following the meeting.

Sen. Mike Braun (R-Ind.), emerging from the lunch, said “I think I can say the mood is good.”

Braun expressed confidence that McConnell will be able to keep his conference unified enough to defeat a motion to consider subpoenas for additional witnesses and documents.

“If I had to guess, no witnesses,” he said.

“We’ll be in a place where I think everyone is going to have their mind made up and I believe that we’ll be able to move to a verdict and the witness question will be clear at that point,” Braun added.

Murkowski did not attend the lunch.

Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah), who has been the most outspoken advocate for calling additional witnesses, declined to comment as he left the lunch.

Romney and Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) are both expected to back witnesses. Murkowski has been seen as a third possible vote, though she had not announced any decision.

Instead of discussing the possibility of having former national security adviser John Bolton appear as a witness in the trial at Wednesday’s meeting, lawmakers talked about voting Friday to move quickly to an up-or-down vote on two articles of impeachment.

“There was no discussion about that today,” Rounds said.

Instead, Rounds said the discussion was about how “we’re moving forward.”

A report by The New York Times that said Bolton in his forthcoming book will write that President Trump had linked the withholding of aid to Ukraine to that country conducting investigations of former Vice President Joe Biden and his son Hunter had given new energy to the witness debate.

Democrats have been clamoring to hear Bolton as a witness at the trial.

Senators are asking questions to the House impeachment team and Trump’s defense lawyers during today’s impeachment session.

END

 

To GOP senators say the Horowitz report misled the public.  They are demanding Barr to declaissy some footnotes which are at odds with the public report
(Sara Carter)

Top GOP Senators Say Horowitz Report “Misled Public”, Demand AG Barr Declassify Some Footnotes

Authored by Sara Carter via SaraACarter.com,

Chairman of the Senate Homeland Security Committee and Chairman of the Senate Finance Committee have formerly requested that Attorney General William Barr declassify four footnotes in Department of Justice Inspector General Michael Horowitz’s report on the FBI’s FISA abuse investigation. The letter states that the classified footnotes contradict information in Horowitz’s report that appears to have misled the public.

U.S. Sens. Ron Johnson, R-Wis., and Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, sent the classified letter Tuesday evening and questioned the contradiction between the footnotes and what was made public by Horowitz’s team regarding the bureau’s Crossfire Hurricane investigation.

 

However, the Senator’s did not disclose what section of the December FISA report contradicts the footnotes in their findings.

The Senator’s state in their letter to Barr that certain sections of Horowitz’s report on the FBI are misleading the public.

Part of the classified letter, which was obtained by SaraACarter.com states:

 

“We have reviewed the findings of the Office of the Inspector General (OIG) with regard to the FBI’s Crossfire Hurricane investigation, and we are deeply concerned about certain information that remains classified,” the letter states.

“Specifically, we are concerned that certain sections of the public version of the report are misleading because they are contradicted by relevant and probative classified information redacted in four footnotes.

This classified information is significant not only because it contradicts key statements in a section of the report, but also because it provides insight essential for an accurate evaluation of the entire investigation.

The American people have a right to know what is contained within these four footnotes and, without that knowledge, they will not have a full picture as to what happened during the Crossfire Hurricane investigation.

Johnson and Grassley’s office noted that “for maximum public transparency, the senators wrote a separate unclassified cover letter to describe their request.”

Full text of the unclassified letter to Barr below:

end
Trump; if I had listened to him we would be on World War 6 by now
(zerohedge)

‘If I Listened To Him, We’d Be On World War Six’ – Trump Slams “Nasty & Untrue” Bolton Book

The coordinated leak of the Bolton manuscript has revived Democrats’ hopes for calling the former National Security Advisor to testify at Trump’s trial in the Senate, Mitch McConnell reluctantly admitted last night.

And as Republican frustration with the mustachioed neocon reaches a boiling point, President Trump – who famously fired Bolton via Twitter – has taken to his favorite social media platform to bash his former NSA.

Trump begins by slamming Bolton’s disloyalty, claiming that Bolton begged him for a “non-Senate approved” job and that Trump caved and gave it to him despite “many saying ‘don’t do it, sir’.”

Trump also mocked Bolton’s tendency toward gaffes during TV appearances, like the time he claimed the US was looking at “the Libya model” to handle North Korea. He was immediately roasted by national security experts who noted that Gadhafi’s decision to surrender his nuclear ambitions eventually led to his overthrow and brutal murder.

 

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

For a guy who couldn’t get approved for the Ambassador to the U.N. years ago, couldn’t get approved for anything since, “begged” me for a non Senate approved job, which I gave him despite many saying “Don’t do it, sir,” takes the job, mistakenly says “Libyan Model” on T.V., and..

Moving on, the president said that if he followed Bolton’s advice, the US would be in “World War Six” by now – a reference to Bolton’s famously interventionist views, particularly regarding Iran. It’s believed that, if Bolton had his druthers, the US would have authorized a full-blown invasion.

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

….many more mistakes of judgement, gets fired because frankly, if I listened to him, we would be in World War Six by now, and goes out and IMMEDIATELY writes a nasty & untrue book. All Classified National Security. Who would do this?

It turns out Donald Trump isn’t the only Republican president who regrets trusting Bolton. Former President George W. Bush said he regretted his decision to recess-appoint Bolton as his top envoy to the United Nation over the objections of the Senate after it became clear he wouldn’t be confirmed.

“Let me just say from the outset that I don’t consider Bolton credible,” Bush reportedly told an assembled group of political writers, according to the Federalist.

Trump’s criticisms come after the WSJ editorial board said Bolton should be allowed to testify, once again breaking with the Trump administration.

Bolton skeptics – of which there are many – have accused the hotheaded former NSA of merely trying to sell books with the stunt (since getting another job in government is probably out of the question).

Yet Democrats are giving a former “warmonger” the Comey treatment.

END
We now have one Democrat who wants the Senate to call Joe and Hunter Biden as witnesses:
Joe Manchin
(zerohedge)

Hunter Biden ‘Relevant Witness’ Says Dem Senator As Joe Begs For Backup

Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) said on Wednesday that Hunter Biden would be a “relevant witness” in President Trump’s impeachment trial over withholding aid to Ukraine while pushing for an investigation into allegations of Biden corruption.

“I think so — I really do,” Manchin told MSNBC‘s “Morning Joe,” adding “I don’t have a problem there because this is why we are where we are.

“Now, I think that he [can] clear himself — what I know and what I’ve heard … But being afraid to put anybody that might have pertinent is wrong, no matter if you’re a Democrat or Republican.”

Benny

@bennyjohnson

Sen. Manchin (D): Hunter Biden is a relevant witness.

“This is why we are where we are”

Embedded video

Manchin expounded after his appearance:

The Hill

@thehill

Sen. Joe Manchin: “The whole process is hypocrisy… They’ve all reversed themselves, Schumer and McConnell both.”

Embedded video

During this week’s impeachment arguments, President Trump’s defense walked the Senate through Hunter Biden’s ‘nepotistic at best, nefarious at worst’ board seat at Ukrainian gas giant Burisma. Joe Biden, meanwhile, bragged in 2018 about withholding $1 billion in US loans to Ukraine if they didn’t fire their top prosecutor who had been investigating Burisma.

“All we are saying is that there was a basis to talk about this, to raise this issue, and that is enough,” said Bondi, who noted that Hunter Biden was paid over $83,000 per month to sit on Burisma’s board even though he had zero experience in natural gas or Ukrainian relations while his father was Vice President and in charge of Ukraine policy for the United States.

RNC Research

@RNCResearch

Pam Bondi explains the Bidens’ connection to the corrupt Ukrainian gas company Burisma https://youtu.be/neK3Y-q8UqM

Embedded video

Other top Democrats have categorically ruled out testimony from the Bidens, with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer claiming that Hunter wouldn’t be able to offer relevant testimony about Trump’s interactions with Ukraine, and that his appearance would be a distraction.

Republicans have threatened to subpoena Hunter, 49, if Democrats succeed in securing testimony from former White House National Security Adviser John Bolton, who claims in a leaked manuscript of his book that President Trump explicitly tied Ukraine aid to investigations into the Bidens.

Democratic strategists haunted by damaging right-wing attacks on past nominees Hillary Clinton and John Kerry say the specter of Hunter Biden getting publicly grilled by Senate Republicans would inject uncertainty into a still-fluid primary race.

Trump’s allies vow that if Bolton is called, they’ll subpoena Hunter Biden, and perhaps the former vice president.

If you call John Bolton, we’re going to call everybody,” South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham, one of Trump’s most vocal defenders, said Tuesday. He made clear that means the Bidens. –Bloomberg

“Biden can expect Trump and outside groups to deliver the same experience that wrecked Clinton’s and Kerry’s campaigns,” said Trump’s former chief strategist, Steve Bannon, adding “Isolate and amplify the most damaging charge against the strongest Democratic candidate and hammer into voters’ minds until Election Day.”

Meanwhile, in ‘please clap’ news, Joe Biden’s 2020 campaign is now begging his supporters to defend him against online attacks from Bernie Sanders supporters, according to Bloomberg.

With less than a week before the Iowa caucuses, the Biden campaign expressed concern on a call to its supporters that Sanders people were “getting ugly” and it had to “step up its game” defending the vice president. The message was confirmed by campaign national press secretary TJ Ducklo. –Bloomberg

And last but not least, Joe Biden put his hands on an Iowa voter Tuesday, telling him to “go vote for someone else” after he was asked not to support the construction of new pipelines. The man replied that he would support Biden in the general election against Trump, but that he supports billionaire Tom Steyer for the primaries.

Zaid Jilani@ZaidJilani

A man in Iowa asks Joe Biden to stop supporting the building of new pipelines. Joe Biden tells him to go vote for someone else and then starts accusing him of voting for Bernie Sanders. Actually, the man says, he’s voting for Tom Steyer. Very awkward.

Embedded video

END

END

Watch: Angry Rand Paul Demands Trump Sue Schumer

Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,

An uncharacteristically angry Senator Rand Paul slammed Chuck Schumer Tuesday, urging President Trump to sue the Democratic leader for defamation amidst the ongoing impeachment saga.

“I’m offended and shocked that Schumer would be so scurrilous as to accuse the president and his children of making money illegally off of politics when the only people we know have made money off of this have been Hunter Biden and Joe Biden,” Paul urged.

“Hunter Biden makes a million dollars a year, that’s documented, but Schumer simply creates and makes up and says, ‘Oh, maybe the president’s kids are making money.’” Paul continued.

Alex Jones breaks down the latest delusion of the left to justify their partisan crusade to overthrow President Trump and the will of the American People.

The Senator then noted that former White House advisor John Bolton is peddling a book off the back of the trial.

“John Bolton is making money as we speak. He has probably already gotten the several million dollar advance for this book. He’s making money by testifying against the president.” Paul proclaimed.

“Look, a month ago, he didn’t want to testify in the House. Why? Maybe his book wasn’t finished. Now his book is finished. He wants to testify,” Paul remarked.

Senator Rand Paul

@RandPaul

Why didn’t John Bolton testify to the US House? Apparently his book wasn’t quite finished yet for presales!

“The only people we know who have actually made money? Hunter Biden and now John Bolton. And they’re not objective. John Bolton is not objective in any way now that he’s cashing million dollar checks.” Paul noted, echoing comments made by the President:

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

I NEVER told John Bolton that the aid to Ukraine was tied to investigations into Democrats, including the Bidens. In fact, he never complained about this at the time of his very public termination. If John Bolton said this, it was only to sell a book. With that being said, the…

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Why didn’t John Bolton complain about this “nonsense” a long time ago, when he was very publicly terminated. He said, not that it matters, NOTHING!

“To have Schumer come up and say out of the blue, ‘Maybe the president’s kids are making money,’ with no evidence at all, that’s defamation and they ought to sue him,” the Kentucky Senator asserted.

“There is nothing in the record about the president’s kids,” Paul again pointed out, adding “So Schumer has just created this whole thing out of whole cloth and said, ‘Oh, why don’t we go after the president’s kids?’ We don’t know yet whether or not the president’s dealings with the Chinese president have something to do with the Trumps making money.’

He just made it up! Completely made it up! That’s defamation of character and he ought to go to court and be sued for it.

Paul has continually pushed for having the Bidens testify and even threatened to force a vote on the matter. The Senator has also repeatedly called for the so called ‘whistleblower’ to be put on the stand

end
Fascinating;  the NSC tells Bolton that his book contains “top secret information” and cannot be published unless all of it is sremoved. They reported to him 3 days before the leak..hmm..
(zerohedge)

White House Told Bolton His Book Contains ‘TOP SECRET’ Information – 3 Days Before NYT Leak

The White House told former national security adviser John Bolton that his tell-all book contains “significant amounts of classified information,” including some which is “TOP SECRET” and could harm national security.

“Under federal law and the nondisclosure agreements your client signed, as a condition for gaining access to classified information, the manuscript may not be published or otherwise disclosed without the deletion of this classified information,” the letter continues.

Notably, the letter, sent from the National Security Counsel to Bolton’s attorneys, was sent three days before the manuscript mysteriously leaked to the New York Times on the eve of the Senate impeachment proceedings – sparking a debate over calling Bolton as a witness in the trial.

John Roberts

@johnrobertsFox

One interesting point with this letter – it was transmitted 3 days before the ⁦@nytimes⁩ article came out.

View image on Twitter
463 people are talking about this

A fact checker for the Washington Post has already suggested the NSC is lying.

Sean Davis

@seanmdav

Washington Post fact-checker insinuates, without any evidence whatsoever, that the top National Security Council lawyer tasked with vetting records is lying about the presence of classified top secret information in Bolton’s book. Incredible. https://twitter.com/GlennKesslerWP/status/1222588159063666689 

Glenn Kessler

@GlennKesslerWP

Hmm, John Bolton, one of the most skilled lawyers in Washington, would write a book filled with TOP SECRET classified information? He’s done this rodeo before, so that would be highly surprising if true. https://twitter.com/jaketapper/status/1222581995374555136 

208 people are talking about this

As we noted on Tuesday, the identical twin brother of Democratic impeachment witness Alexander Vindman, Yevgeny Vindman, is reportedly in charge of reviewing all publications by current and former officials at the National Security Council (NSC), according to Breitbart News –  which would ostensibly include Bolton’s manuscript.

Meanwhile, House Impeachment Manager Adam Schiff insisted on Wednesday that Trump’s impeachment trial won’t be fair unless Bolton testifies.

Where have we seen this before?

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

Harvard Chemistry Chairman Charged on Alleged Undisclosed Ties to China – Charles Lieber is accused of lying to Defense Department, National Institutes of Health about Chinese government funding

https://www.wsj.com/articles/harvards-chemistry-chair-charged-on-alleged-undisclosed-ties-to-china-11580228768

@CNBC: White House tells airlines it may suspend all China-US flights amid coronavirus outbreak

@latimes: Sen. Dianne Feinstein became the first Democrat to suggest that she could vote to acquit President Trump despite serious concerns about his character. [Later, someone pressured Feinstein].

 

@SenFeinstein: The LA Times misunderstood what I said today. Before the trial I said I’d keep an open mind. Now that both sides made their cases, it’s clear the president’s actions were wrongHe withheld vital foreign assistance for personal political gain. That can’t be allowed to stand.

 

The WSJ reports that Mitch McConnell says he does NOT have enough GOP votes to halt the calling of witnesses in Trump’s trial.  Linear-thinking Republicans are livid; linear-thinking Democrats and MSM types are happy.  Cocaine Mitch knows that if GOP senators ban witnesses, Dems and their MSM propaganda appendage will scream ‘cover up’.  But if Mitch offers a slate of witnesses that includes the Bidens, Schiff, the leaker of the Zelensky-Trump phone call and possibly the IC IG along with Bolton and maybe Trump CoS Mulvaney, Democrats will be forced to vote ‘for’ or ‘against’ witnesses.  Does anyone think that Dems want the Bidens, Schiff or the leaker to be interrogated under oath at the Senate?

 

Graham: There will be 51 GOP votes to call Bidens, whistleblower to testify   http://hill.cm/Ei65KLR

 

Fox’s @ChadPergram: This is why the scenario is in play where GOPers/Dems could try to consider slates of witnesses – which would be doomed to fail. This would be an effort to block the other side from getting what they want – even if each side fails to call the witnesses they want.

 

Patrick Howley:  John Bolton pocketed $115,000 from Ukrainian steel oligarch Viktor Pinchuk’s foundation shortly before entering President Donald Trump’s White House as national security adviser…As the Washington Post noted, Pinchuk has exceeded $10 million in donations to the Clinton Foundation… https://nationalfile.com/john-bolton-took-six-figures-from-ukrainian-oligarch-clinton-foundation-donor/

 

@willchamberlain: Adam Schiff says it would have taken “a year or two years” for the House to subpoena John Bolton’s testimony.  Why would it take any less time for the Senate, Adam?  The Senate doesn’t have any more subpoena power than the House!

 

Alan Dershowitz: “Nothing in the Bolton revelations, even if true, would rise to the level of an abuse of power or an impeachable offense. That is clear from the history. That is clear from the language of the Constitution… Even if a president… were to demand a quid pro quo as a condition to sending aid to a foreign country … that would not by itself constitute an abuse of power.” https://abcn.ws/2U2YIbi

 

Yesterday, Trumps’ lawyers concluded their opening remarks at his trial in the US senate.  Sixteen hours over two days of written questions from senators will begin tomorrow.

 

Sen. Lindsey Graham: “The House chose not to pursue witnesses that were available to them. I don’t want to start a precedent of just doing it half-assed in the House and expect Senate to fix it.”

     It is clear to me that most Democrats are very comfortable with an America where only Republicans get investigated.  Not one Republican believes that @SenSchumer and @ChrisMurphyCT are remotely interested in fairness.  After Kavanaugh it was clear there was virtually nothing they wouldn’t do for political power.   Not 1 Democrat has come forward to suggest the outrageous conduct of Hunter Biden in Ukraine – or the failure of VP Biden to take appropriate action – needs to be investigated

 

It appears that the Democrat Establishment is preparing to shaft Bernie Sanders again.  This time via a brokered convention that would grant Hillary a campaign-free nomination that avoids troubling scrutiny.

 

Sanders supporters fume as Clinton allies named to key Dem convention committees

Their frustration comes after Perez named former Rep. Barney Frank of Massachusetts – who was a surrogate for Hillary Clinton’s 2016 presidential campaign — as co-chair of the convention’s Rules Committee. And Perez picked John Podesta – who served as Clinton’s 2016 campaign manager – to have a seat on the committee…

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/sanders-supporters-clinton-allies-to-key-convention-committees

 

The Daily Wires’ Emily Zanotti @emzanotti: Defeating Donald Trump seems so simple. Stay steady, appear largely sane, express respect for his key demographics. But he drives his opponents into such an incoherent rage, they start shooting like storm troopers on a Death Star manhunt.

 

Amir Tsarfati on Trump’s Middle East Peace Plan @BeholdIsrael: One of the most significant things that were overlooked by many today is the fact that Israel agreed for the first time to any map. The long persistence on keeping the Jordan valley as our eastern border paid off!

 

Elizabeth Warren: To Deal with Chinese Coronavirus We Must Fight Climate Change

https://www.dailywire.com/news/elizabeth-warren-to-deal-with-chinese-coronavirus-we-must-fight-climate-change/

 

Well that is all for today

I will see you Thursday night.

 

 

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