FEB 7//CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC ESCALATES: MANY COMMENTARIES//GOLD UP $3.20 TO $1570.00//SILVER IS DOWN 11 CENTS TO $17.73//FOMC REPORT OF JOBS: HUGE REVISION FROM B/D PLUG//SWAMP STORIES!! VINDMAN FIRED//

GOLD:$1570.00 UP $3.20    (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING

 

 

 

 

Silver:$17.73 DOWN 11 CENTS  (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING) :

 

Closing access prices:

 

GOLD: 1571.00

 

SILVER: 17.72

 

 

 

 

 

 

COMEX DATA

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING: 310/464

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: FEBRUARY 2020 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,565.100000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 02/06/2020 DELIVERY DATE: 02/10/2020
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
072 H GOLDMAN 135
355 C CREDIT SUISSE 33
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 6
624 C BOFA SECURITIES 25
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 13
661 C JP MORGAN 310
685 C RJ OBRIEN 1
686 C INTL FCSTONE 1 1
732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 2
737 C ADVANTAGE 26 41
800 C MAREX SPEC 8 9
880 C CITIGROUP 22
880 H CITIGROUP 294
905 C ADM 1
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 464 464
MONTH TO DATE: 5,935

 

 

we are coming very close to a commercial failure!!

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  DEC CONTRACT: 464 NOTICE(S) FOR 46400 OZ (1.4423 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  5935 NOTICES FOR 593,500 OZ  (18.46 TONNES)

 

 

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR DEC

 

 

5 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 25,000  OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month: 208 for 1.040,000 oz

 

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE :  $ 9738 DOWN 25 

 

 

 

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $ 9766 DOWN 6

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

IN SILVER THE COMEX OI ROSE A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 1546 CONTRACTS FROM 223,473 UP TO 225,019 WITH OUR 24 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX.

 

TODAY WE ARRIVED CLOSER TO AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A  STRONG  SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:,

; FEB 0; MARCH:  1157 AND MAY: 100 AND JULY: 0 ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  1257 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 1257 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 1257 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 6.285 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 24 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

7.32     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

2.630     MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOV.

20.970   MILLION OZ  FINAL STANDING IN DEC

5.075     MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JAN

1.170    MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN FEB

 

THURSDAY, AGAIN OUR CROOKS USED COPIOUS PAPER IN ORDER TO CONTAIN SILVER’S PRICE…AND THEY WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE 6 CENTS).. AND, OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS  WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE  SOME SILVER LONGS AS THE TOTAL GAIN IN OI ON BOTH EXCHANGES TOTALED A STRONG 2899 CONTRACTS. OR 14.495 MILLION OZ….. WE HAD PROBABLY LIMITED BANKER SHORT COVERING

 

WE HAVE NOW COMMENCED IN SILVER THE ILLEGAL SPREADING OPERATION.  FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS:

 

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW STOPPED IN GOLD AS THEY NOW BEGIN TO MORPH INTO SILVER AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW FRONT MONTH WILL BE MARCH.

 

 

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEW, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE SPREADERS AND THE CRIMINAL ELEMENT BEHIND IT:

 

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR GOLD..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR SILVER.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEWCOMERS HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

.

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO SILVER AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX SILVER OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MARCH FOR SILVER:

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON  ACTIVE MONTH OF FEB .BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (MAR), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF FEB:

4412 CONTRACTS (FOR 5 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 4412 CONTRACTS) OR 22.065 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 882.4 CONTRACTS OR 4.412 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF FEB: 22.065 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 3.150% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

 

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2020 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          203.665 MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2020 EFP TOTALS SO FAR: 181.61 MILLION OZ

FEB 2020 EFP’S TOTAL SO FAR:  ……     22.065 MILLION OZ

 

 

RESULT: WE HAD A CONSIDERABLE SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1546, WITH THE 6 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /THURSDAY THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A VERY  STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 1257 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA)

TODAY WE GAINED A STRONG SIZED  SIZED: 2803 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 

i.e 1257 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH INCREASE OF 1546 OI COMEX CONTRACTS.AND ALL OF THIS   DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 24 CENT RISE IN PRICE OF SILVER AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $17.85 // THURSDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY!! 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.125 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 161% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW  FEB DELIVERY MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 5 NOTICE(S) FOR  25,000 OZ OF SILVER.

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018. AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.70

 

.

 

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 10.025 MILLION OZ/ SEPT 43.030 MILLION OZ//OCT: 7.665 MILLION OZ//   NOV: 2.630 MILLION OZ//DEC:  20.970 MILLION OZ; JAN:  5.075 MILLION OZ.//FEB 1.170 MILLION OZ//
  2. THE  RECORD WAS SET IN AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78//.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

 

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 

GOLD

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A GOOD SIZED 1865 CONTRACTS TO 652,257 AND MOVING CLOSER TO  OUR  NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE CONSIDERABLE RISE IN COMEX OI OCCURRED WITH OUR GAIN OF $8.80 IN PRICING /// COMEX GOLD TRADING// THURSDAY//  THE GAIN IN OI WAS DUE TO THE MASSIVE SUPPLY ISSUED BY THE BANKERS AS THERE WAS NO BANKER SHORT COVERING YESTERDAY. 

 

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

 

 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A VERY STRONG SIZED 6,189 CONTRACTS:

CONTRACTS, FEB>  0 CONTRACTS; MARCH 00 APRIL: 6189; JUNE. 0 AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO//TOTAL: 6189.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 652,019,.  ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 8054 CONTRACTS: 1865 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX  AND 6189 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 8054 CONTRACTS OR 805,400 OZ OR 25.05 TONNES. THURSDAY, WE HAD A CONSIDERABLE GAIN OF $8.80 IN GOLD TRADING.

AND WITH THAT GAIN IN  PRICE, WE  HAD A STRONG GAIN IN GOLD TONNAGE OF 25.05  TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS/OFFICIAL SECTOR WERE SUPPLYING INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER WITH RECKLESS ABANDON. THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE (GAIN $8.80).  IT SEEMS THAT THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE  GOLD LONGS FROM THE GOLD ARENA FAILED AS WE HAD  A STRONG INCREASE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS  (6432) ACCOMPANYING THE GOOD ADVANCE IN COMEX OI.

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF FEB : 59,762 CONTRACTS OR 5,976,200 oz OR 185.88 TONNES (5 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 11,952 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 5 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 185.88 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 185.88/3550 x 100% TONNES =5.23% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL /GOLD HAS EXPLODED THIS MONTH.

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:    756.07  TONNES

JANUARY 2220 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE; SO FAR: 570.19 TONNES

FEB 2020 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE SO FAR:            185.88  TONNES

 

 

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

Result: A CONSIDERABLE SIZED INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 1865 WITH THE  PRICING GAIN THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK THURSDAY($8.80)) //.WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 6189 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT TH GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 6189 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE  HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 8054 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

6189 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND  1865 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 25.05 TONNES). ..AND THIS  INCREASE OF DEMAND OCCURRED WITH THE GAIN IN PRICE OF $8.80 WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY’S TRADING/// AT THE COMEX.

 

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

 

 

WITH GOLD $3.20  TODAY

NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//

 

FEB 7/2020/Inventory rests tonight at 914.91 tonnes

 

 

 

 

 

SLV/

 

 

WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY

A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//

A DEPOSIT: 701,000 OZ INTO THE SLV

FEB 7/INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.013 MILLION OZ.

 

 

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

 

 

end

 

OUTLINE OF TOPICS TONIGHT

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest in SILVER ROSE BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 1546 CONTRACTS from 223,473 UP TO 225,019 AND CLOSER TO OUR NEW COMEX RECORD.  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 3/4 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

 

EFP ISSUANCE 1257

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 FOR FEB. 0; FOR MAR  1157:  AND MAY: 100; JULY: 0 CONTRACTS   AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1257 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE OI GAIN AT THE COMEX OF 1546  CONTRACTS TO THE 1257 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A STRONG GAIN OF 2803 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 14.02 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL  18.765 MILLION OZ FOR MAY  NOW 2.660 MILLION OZ FOR JUNE WITH JULY AT 22.605 MILLION OZ AUGUST AT 10.025 MILLION OZ//  SEPT: 43.030 MILLION OZ///OCT: 7.32 MILLION OZ//NOV 2.63 MILLION OZ//DEC: 20.970 MILLION OZ//JAN: 5.075 MILLION OZ//FEB: 1.170 MILLION OZ//

 

 

RESULT: A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE 24 CENT GAIN IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// THURSDAY. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED 1257 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

 

 

(report Harvey)

 

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)FRIDAY MORNING/ THURSDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 9.45 POINTS OR 0.33%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 78.43 POINTS OR 0.33%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 45.61 POINTS OR 0.19%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .36%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.9937 /Oil UP TO 50.59 dollars per barrel for WTI and 54.49 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 6.9937 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.9987 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW COMPLETE/PHASE I..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

 

3b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3C  CHINA

i)CHINA/GLOBE/SUPPLY SHOCKS
The world deals in “just in time inventory”.  We have been living in this globalist concept and operations for years.  Now it will haunt the world as goods cannot get to their destination and manufactured due to the coronavirus..  in China…The entire GDP of the world begins to shut down
(zerohedge)

ii)CHINA/THE GLOBE/CORONAVIRUS

UPDATE.//last night
The virus explodes in number on our cruise ship in Japan.  China claims a slowdown in number of new cases which is not to be believed
(zerohedge)

iii)CHINA/CORONAVIRUS/THIS MORNING

My goodness 1/4 of all China is now quarantined as the huge city of Guangzhou joins the list
(zerohedge)

iv)CHINA/CORONAVIRUS/THIS MORNING

My goodness 1/4 of all China is now quarantined as the huge city of Guangzhou joins the list
(zerohedge)

v)CHINA

Goods cannot get to the people because of the quarantine:  truckloads of tropical fruit are rotting at China’s border.  Farmers are hammered
(zerohedge)

vi)CHINA

Figures!!  China is keeping a mask on the true numbers of victims. Now  journalists who have exposed the Beijing lies in Wuhan have suddenly vanished
(zerohedge)

vii)Michael Every/Global GDP vs Coronavirus

A must read as Every analyzes what will happen to global GDP if this virus persists

(Michael Every)

viii)Robert H sent this for us and it is a must read

from Stuff.co nz and special thanks to Robert for sending it
CORONAVIRUS IS  FAR FROM UNDER CONTROL

ix)I believe that their GDP  Q1 will drop below zero:  JPMorgan says it will crash to 1%(zerohedge)

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)GERMANY

The populist party AfD is gaining strength and chaos ensued in Thuringia. Merkel and her globalists are in deep trouble in the upcoming election as many nations are turning nationalists and not globalist.  The problems in China will magnify this

(Tom Luongo)

ii)UK/USA

Trump furious with Boris Johnson on its Huawei decision to implement non core parts to his 5 G Network

(zerohedge)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

i)IRAQ/ENERGY

A good one; Iraq although rich in oil is poor in electricity output and natural gas. It gets these supplies from Iran.  Iraq has been receiving supplies through a waiver which runs out at the end of this month.

 

The USA is in a no lose situation dealing with this:  a must read..

(Watkins/OilPrice.com)

ii)YEMEN LEADER/AL RIMI

Trump is picking them off like flies: al Rimi leader of Al Qaeda in Yemen filled by a uSA drond strike

(zerohedge)

6.Global Issues

A good one;  Scientist now warn you can contract the coronavirus can strike more than once

(Mac Slavo)

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

I)We brought you this story but it is worth repeating:  JPMorgan is under its 4th criminal probe, with 3 convictions.  We are going after them on RICO charges and this time it is the corporation that will be nailed

(Pam and Russ Martens//Wall Street on Parade).

10. important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

Futures tumble after Japan finds another 42 virus cases on a quarantined ship

(zerohedge)

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/this morning/FOMC

i. strong gain of 225,000 jobs

ii)FOMC revisions:

For many years I have been highlighting to you the ridiculousness of the B/D plug (Birth Death model). Generally it means that if you lose your job  (Death) you  immediately start a business and employ others (Birth)  The Bureau estimates the number of gains and it is always high.  Once a year they do a revision:  Today that revision is a monstrous 520,000 jobs.  Thus the USA is not growing to what the pundits believed

(zerohedge)

ii)Market data/USA

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

i)We now have another cruiseship  with problems as 12 quarantined passengers are locked in their cabins.

Ambulances and the CDC are on the scene

(zerohedge)

ii)Ford President quits after reporting an embarrassing 1.7 billion dollar loss

(zerohedge)

iv) Swamp commentaries)

VINDMAN FIRED!!  What took them so long!

(zerohedge)

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

 

LET US BEGIN:

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY GOOD SIZED 1865 CONTRACTS TO 652,257 MOVING CLOSER TO OUR  RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020).  AND THIS GAIN IN OI WAS SET WITH A CONSIDERABLE GAIN OF $8.80 IN GOLD PRICING //THURSDAY’S  COMEX TRADING//).  WITH THE STRONG EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAD ANOTHER FAILED ATTEMPT AT BANKER SHORT COVERING ..NOBODY LEFT THE GOLD ARENA THURSDAY.

 

 

 

WE ARE NOW IN THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A ,STRONG SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 6189 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

  FEB: 0; MARCH 00 AND APRIL: 6189,  JUNE : 0 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 6189 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A VERY STRONG SIZED 8054 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 6189 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A GOOD SIZED 1865 COMEX CONTRACTS.  THE BANKERS PROVIDED THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER TO WHICH OUR LONGS DUTIFULLY ACCEPTED. WE HAD NO BANKER SHORT COVERING.

 

THE BANKERS SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY AND INFINITE AMOUNT OF SHORT PAPER IN GOLD.  THE BANKERS WERE  SOMEWHAT UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE //// (IT ROSE BY $8.80). AND THEY WERE MOST DEFINITELY  UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING ANY LONGS, WITH ALMOST ALL OF THE GAIN IN COMEX DUE TO THE   BANKER ISSUANCE OF SHORT PAPER….AND IN TOTAL ON THE TWO EXCHANGES, WE GAINED A VERY STRONG SIZED 8054 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES….(25.05 TONNES)

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ::  8054 CONTRACTS OR 805400 OZ OR 25.05 TONNES

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT COMMODITY FUTURES OPEN INTEREST SHOULD APPROXIMATE 3% OF TOTAL PRODUCTION.  IN GOLD THE WORLD PRODUCES AROUND 3500 TONNES PER YEAR BUT ONLY 2200 TONNES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE WEST (THUS EXCLUDING RUSSIA, CHINA ETC..WHO KEEP 100% OF THEIR PRODUCTION)

THUS IN GOLD WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:  652,018 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS X 100 OZ PER CONTRACT = 65.49 MILLION OZ/32,150 OZ PER TONNE =  2,027 TONNES

THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST REPRESENTS 2,027/2200 OR 92.18% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF GOLD.

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now for the wild silver comex results

Total COMEX silver OI ROSE BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 1546 CONTRACTS FROM 223,473 DOWN TO 225,019 (AND CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018 (244,196).  THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND OUR  OI COMEX GAIN OCCURRED WITH A STRONG 24 CENT INCREASE IN PRICING/THURSDAY.

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE  NON-ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB.

FEB IS A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH.

 

THE FRONT MONTH OF FEBRUARY HAS A TOTAL OPEN INTEREST OF 6 CONTRACTS SHOWING A LOSS OF 5 CONTRACTS//WEDNESDAY TRADING. WE HAD 5 NOTICES SERVED YESTERDAY SO WE GAINED 0 CONTRACTS OR NIL OZ OF SILVER

 

March is a very active month and here we witness a LOSS of 197 contracts  DOWN TO 147,208

APRIL saw a gain of 26 contracts up to 88.

MAY had a good 983 gain in oi to stand at 40,397.

 

 

We, today, had  5 notice(s)  for 25,000, OZ for the FEB, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 273,530 contracts??  low volume   

 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  239,605 contracts//low volume

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  FEB/GOLD

 

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

 

 

FEB 7/2020

 

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
nil oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil oz

 

Delaware

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

nil

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
464 notice(s)
 46400 OZ
(1.4423 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
1598 contracts
(159800 oz)
4.9736 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
5935 notices
593,500 OZ
18.460 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

we had 0 dealer entry:

We had  0 kilobar entries

 

 

 

total dealer deposits:nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

 

we had 0 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan: nil  oz

 

ii) Into everybody else: 0

 

 

 

 

 

 

total deposits:  nil oz

 

 

 

 

we had 0 gold withdrawals from the customer account:

 

 

total gold withdrawals;  nil oz

 

ADJUSTMENTS:  1

and this is what i need to see if there are settlements;

i) Out of HSBC: 25,673.222 oz was adjusted out of the dealer and this lands into the customer account of HSBC  (.7985 tonnes)

 

 

 

 

 

 

The front month of February saw its open interest fall by 321 contracts down to 2062 contracts.  We had 355 notices filed upon yesterday, so we GAINED a strong 34 contracts or an additional 3400 oz will stand for delivery here and not morph into London based forwards. The March non active contract month saw its OI FALL by 40 contracts down to 3048.  The big April contract month saw its OI rise by 626 contracts up to 476,972.

 

We had 464 notices filed today for 46400 oz

 

 

 

FOR THE  FEB 2020 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 464 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 310 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the FEB /2020. contract month, we take the total number of no4ices filed so far for the month (5935) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  FEB. (2062 contracts) minus the number of notices served upon today (424 x 100 oz per contract) equals 753,300 OZ OR 23.430 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this  active month of FEB

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the FEB/2020 contract month:

No of notices served (5935 x 100 oz)  + (2063)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (464 x 100 oz )which equals 753,300 oz standing OR 23.430 TONNES in this  active delivery month of FEB. which is a still a great opening for gold // amount standing.

We GAINED 34 contracts or 3400 oz REFUSED TO LEAVE  USA shores to visit the Queen in London.  They REFUSED TO ACCEPT A London based gold forwards as well as NEGATE ACCEPTING a fiat bonus

 

 

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:  BRINKS

3027.500 OZ  REMOVED TO THE PLEDGED ACCOUNT JAN 10.2020/Brinks

176,211.457 oz NOW PLEDGED  JAN 21.2020/HSBC  5.4807 TONNES

 

 

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES…. WE HAVE ONLY 42.14 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS.

HERE IS WHAT STOOD DURING THESE PAST 7 MONTHS:  AUGUST 27.153 TONNES

SEPT:                                                                      5.4525 TONNES

OCT…………………………………………………………………………..   37.99 TONNES

NOV……                                                                5.3841 tonnes

DEC………………………….                                              45.912 TONNES

JAN……………………                                                    8.448 TONNES

FEB……………………………………………..                                23.39 tonnes

 

total: 153.762 tonnes

ACCORDING TO COMEX RULES:

 

IF WE INCLUDE THE PAST 7 MONTHS OF SETTLEMENTS WE HAVE 20.853 TONNES SETTLED (includes the .7985 tonnes of today)

 

IF WE ADD THE FIVE DELIVERY MONTHS: 153.762  tonnes

 

Thus:

153.762 tonnes of delivery –

20.853 TONNES DEEMED SETTLEMENT

=132.909 TONNES STANDING FOR METAL AGAINST 42.149 TONNES OF REGISTERED OR FOR SALE COMEX GOLD! THIS IS WHY GOLD IS SCARCE AT THE COMEX.

 

total registered or dealer gold:   1,505,631.823 oz or  46.836 tonnes
which  includes the following:
a) pledged gold held at HSBC + BRINKS  which cannot settled upon   176,211.457 oz x ( 5.4807 TONNES)//
b)registered gold that can be used to settle upon:1,329,429.4  (41.350 tonnes)
true registered gold  (total registered – pledged tonnes  1,329,429.4  (41.35 tonnes)
total registered, pledged  and eligible (customer) gold;   8,714,273.64 oz 271.05 tonnes

 

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX 
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.
3. NO GOLD IS ENTERING THE COMEX

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1.GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX 
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.
3. NO GOLD IS ENTERING THE COMEX

WHY ARE THEY NOT SETTLING?

 

THE COMEX IS AN ABSOLUTE FRAUD..

We had 464  notices served upon today for 46400 oz

 

end

 

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB.

INITIAL  standings/SILVER

IN TOTAL CONTRAST TO GOLD, HUGE ACTIVITY IN SILVER TODAY.
FEB 7 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 295,311.525 oz
CNT
Brinks
Scotia

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
600,489.840 oz
hsbc
No of oz served today (contracts)
5
CONTRACT(S)
(25,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
1 contracts
 5,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  213 contracts

1,065,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

**

*

 

 

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

i)we had  1 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:   0

 

ii) Into HSBC; 600,489.840 oz

 

 

 

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 161.3 million oz of  total silver inventory or 50.32% of all official comex silver. (161.3 million/320.486 million

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  600,489.840   oz

 

we had 3 withdrawals out of the customer account:

i) Out of Brinks: 100,331.155 oz

ii) Out of Scotia: 190,040.070 oz

iii) Out of CNT:  4,940.300 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

total withdrawals; 295,311.525  oz

We had 3 adjustment:

i) Out of CNT:

600,994.902 oz was adjusted out of the customer and this landed to the dealer

ii) and iii) are both dealer to customer and thus are deemed settlements

and we will deem this a settlement

ii) Out of Brinks:  608,858.690 oz leaves the dealer and enters the customer account

iii) Out of Delaware: 9998.262 oz leaves the dealer and enters the customer account

 

 

 

total dealer silver:  79.510 million

total dealer + customer silver:  320.486 million oz

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The total number of notices filed today for the FEB 2019. contract month is represented by 5 contract(s) FOR 25,000 oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in FEB, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 213 x 5,000 oz = 1,065,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of FEB. (6) and the number of notices served upon today 5 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the FEB/2019 contract month: 213 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of Feb (6)- number of notices served upon today (5) x 5000 oz equals 1,070,000 oz of silver standing for the Feb contract month.

 

We gained 0 contracts or an additional NIL oz will stand at the comex

 

 

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN:  THE COMEX IS UNDER ASSAULT FOR BOTH PHYSICAL GOLD AND SILVER WITH SILVER IN THE LEAD BY FAR. DESPITE  MASSIVE RAIDS, LONGS CONTINUE WITH THEIR HUNT AT THE COMEX FOR PHYSICAL METAL.. IT WILL NOT BE LONG BEFORE WE WITNESS A COMMERCIAL FAILURE..STAY TUNED..WE WITNESSED CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING IN SILVER TODAY AND AN ATTEMPTED BANKER SHORT COVERING IN GOLD WITH ZERO SUCCESS.

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED: 

 

 

The total number of notices filed today for the FEB 2019. contract month is represented by 5 contract(s) FOR 25,000 oz

 

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in FEB, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 213 x 5,000 oz = 1,065,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of FEB. (6) and the number of notices served upon today 5 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the FEB/2019 contract month: 213 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of Feb (6)- number of notices served upon today (5) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the Feb contract month.equals 1,070,000 oz

 

We gained 0 contracts or an additional NIL oz will stand at the comex

 

 

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN:  THE COMEX IS UNDER ASSAULT FOR BOTH PHYSICAL GOLD AND SILVER WITH SILVER IN THE LEAD BY FAR. DESPITE  MASSIVE RAIDS, LONGS CONTINUE WITH THEIR HUNT AT THE COMEX FOR PHYSICAL METAL.. IT WILL NOT BE LONG BEFORE WE WITNESS A COMMERCIAL FAILURE..STAY TUNED..WE WITNESSED CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING IN SILVER TODAY AND AN ATTEMPTED BANKER SHORT COVERING IN GOLD WITH ZERO SUCCESS.

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME: 83,364 CONTRACTS //

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 67,846 CONTRACTS..

 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 67,846 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 339 million  OZ 48.5% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..makes sense!!

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

 

end

 

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NPV for Sprott

 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV RISES TO -0.90% ((FEB 7/2019)

2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -0.41% to NAV FEB 7/2019 )

Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ 0.90%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 15.49 TRADING 15.15///DISCOUNT  2.17

 

END

 

 

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

FEB 7/WITH GOLD UP $3.20 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS THIS WEEKEND AT; 914.91 TONNES

FEB 6/WITH GOLD UP $8.80: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.33 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.91 TONNES

FEB 4//WITH GOLD DOWN $26.10: A VERY STRANGE PHENOMENA: A MONSTROUS DEPOSIT OF 9.38 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.58 TONNES

FEB 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.40 TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE: A TINY WITHDRAWAL OF .29 TONNES OF GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 903.21 TONNES( TO PAY FOR FEES LIKE STORAGE INSURANCE ETC)

JAN 31/WITH GOLD DOWN  $0.95 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 903.50 TONNES

JAN 30/WITH GOLD UP $13.05 TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 4.09 TONNES INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 903.50 TONES

JAN 29/WITH GOLD UP 0.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 899.41 TONNES

JAN 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.70 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 899.41 TONNES

JAN 27//WITH GOLD UP $6.15 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 900.58 TONNES

JAN 24//WITH GOLD UP $6.65 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.76 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 900.58 TONNES

JAN 23/WITH GOLD UP $8.90 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 898.82 TONNES

JAN 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MAMMOTH 19.33 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD ADDED//INVENTORY RESTS AT 898.82 TONES

JAN 21/2010//WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 879.49 TONNES

JAN 17/WITH GOLD UP $9.60 TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: ANOTHER PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.17 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 879.49

JAN 16//WITH GOLD DOWN $3.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.80 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD./INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.32

JAN 15/WITH GOLD UP $9.55 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.52 TONNES

JAN 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.52 TONNES

JAN 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.75 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 7.6 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WAS USED IN THE RAID TODAY////INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.52 TONNES

JAN 10/WITH GOLD UP $5.80 TODAY:NA HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 4.69 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.12 TONNES

JAN 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.81 TONNES

JAN 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.10 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 9.37 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.81 TONNES

JAN 7/WITH GOLD UP $7.00 A GOOD INVENTORY PAPER DEPOSIT OF 0.88 TONNES  IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 896.18 TONNES

JAN 6/WITH GOLD UP #15.40 NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 895.30 TONNES

JAN 3/WITH GOLD UP $24.60: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.05 TONES INTO THE GLD../INVENTORY RESTS AT 895.30

JAN 2/2020//WITH GOLD UP $5.20: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 893.25

 

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FEB 7/2019/Inventory rests tonight at 914.91 tonnes

*IN LAST 757 TRADING DAYS: 22.547 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD

*LAST 657 TRADING DAYS: A NET 144.52. TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

FEB 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS THIS WEEKEND AT 362.312 MILLION OZ//

FEB 6//WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY:A SMALL  CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 154,000 OZ AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 362.312 MILLION OZ// AND GENERALLY THIS IS TO PAY FOR FEES LIKE INSURANCE/STORAGE

FEB 4//WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY//SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 362.466 MILLION OZ//

FEB 3/WITH SILVER DOWN 30 CENTS TODAY; A SMALL DEPOSIT OF 560,000 OZ INTO SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 362.466 MILLION OZ/

JAN 31/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A WITHDRAWAL OF 840,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 361/906 MILLION OZ//

JAN 30/WITH SILVER UP 47 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.027 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 362.746 MILLION OZ

JAN 29/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: A BIG  CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.587 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.719 MILLION OZ//

 

JAN 28//WITH SILVER DOWN 59 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 360.132 MILLION OZ

JAN 27//WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 327,000 OZ INTO THE SLV..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 359.805 MILLION OZ//

JAN 24//WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE PAPER DEPOSIT OF 5.975 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 359.805 MILLION OZ//

JAN 23/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 353.830 MILLION OZ..

JAN 22/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.027 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 353.830 OZ

JAN 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 354.437 MILLION OZ//

JAN 17/WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 420,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 354.437 MILLION OZ.

JAN 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: A CONSIDERABLE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 840,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 354,857 MILLION OZ//

JAN 15/WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 355.697 MILLION OZ//

JAN 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 355.697 MILLION OZ//

JAN 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE  CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.261 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 355.697 MILLION OZ//

JAN 10/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 356.958 MILLION OZ//

JAN 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 3.268 MILLION OZ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 356.958 MILLION OZ///

JAN 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 360.226 MILLION OZ//

JAN 7.//WITH SILVER UP 23  CENTS TODAY: ANOTHER MASSIVE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.214 MILLION OZ IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 360.226 MILLION OZ..

JAN 6/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.440 MILLION OZ///

JAN 3/2020//WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY: ANOTHER HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.176 MILLION OZ  IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.440  MILLION OZ///

SINCE DEC 23 WE HAVE HAD A 94 CENT GAIN CORRESPONDING TO A 2.39 MILLION OZ OF PAPER WITHDRAWALS..AN ABSOLUTE FRAUD!

JAN 2/2020/WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.214 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV INVENTORY: INVENTORY RESTS AT 362.616 MILLION OZ

FEB 7.2020:  SLV INVENTORY

362.312 MILLION OZ

 

 

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 1.72/ and libor 6 month duration 1.75

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: + .03

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 1.85%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 1.84

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = -.01

end

 

 

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

 

 

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

We brought you this story but it is worth repeating:  JPMorgan is under its 4th criminal probe, with 3 convictions.  We are going after them on RICO charges and this time it is the corporation that will be nailed

(Pam and Russ Martens//Wall Street on Parade).

Pam and Russ Martens: JPMorgan is under a fourth criminal probe following three convictions

 Section: 

By Pam and Russ Martens
Wall Street on Parade
Thursday, February 6, 2020

Yesterday Bloomberg News reporters Tom Schoenberg and Liam Vaughan broke the story that JPMorgan Chase is under a criminal probe by the U.S. Department of Justice over charges of rigging gold, silver, and other precious metals markets. Six traders who worked on the precious metals desk at JPMorgan Chase have been indicted thus far but this is the first report that the bank itself is also under a criminal investigation.

This marks the fourth criminal probe of the bank in the past eight years by the Justice Department, with the bank pleading guilty to three felony counts in two of the prior criminal investigations.

… 

Throughout this serial crime wave, the Board of Directors of JPMorgan Chase has kept Jamie Dimon in his seat as chairman and CEO. Despite knowing that three of the bank’s traders had been charged under the criminal RICO statute and that the investigation could very likely result in criminal carges against the recidivist bank itself, the board recently awarded Dimon a pay package of $31.5 million for last year — buttressing presidential candidate Bernie Sanders’ message that the business model of Wall Street is fraud.

There was a time in America when a criminal probe of the nation’s largest bank, which holds $1.6 trillion in the life savings of moms and pops at more than 5,300 bank branches across the country, would have been worthy of a front-page headline. Not today.

Crime and fraud are so de rigueur at the bank led by Dimon that not one major newspaper ran the headline on the front page or anywhere else in the paper.

Corporate media is, in fact, complicit in letting Dimon and his Board off the hook. …

… For the remainder of the commentary:

https://wallstreetonparade.com/2020/02/jpmorgan-chase-is-under-fourth-cr…

iii) Other physical stories:

https://www.jsmineset.com/2020/02/07/the-just-in-time-delivery-system-has-already-taken-a-hit/

The Just In Time Delivery System Has Already Taken A Hit!

Posted February 7th, 2020 at 10:49 AM (CST) by J. Johnson & filed under General Editorial.

Great and Wonderful Friday Morning Folks,

      What we call the “norm” in precious metals is the idea that both products are not allowed to have any form of follow thru to the upside, only the down, with this morning being no different after yesterday’s low volume and higher price moves with Gold now at $1,569.50, down 50 cents after the trade reached $1,573.60 with the low not as far away as the high at $1,566.20. There cannot be a free moving market without Silver leading the way lower (almost every time) with its trade at $17.715, down 10.3 cents and close to the low at $17.695 with the high up at $17.855. The US Dollar is still being supported in value, even though we and a few other nations, are printing insane amounts money in order to stay in place with its value pegged at 98.48, up 10.4 points and right beside its high of 98.515 with the low at 98.300. Of course all of this was done before 5 am pst, the Comex open, the London close, and after the Treasury responded to the GOP requests for Hunter Biden, Burisma info.

      Today’s emerging markets currency watch is flat as can be and on both sides of yesterday’s pricings. In Venezuela, Golds value is now at 15,675.38 adding back 8.99 in Bolivar value with Silver at 176.929 losing 0.399 of a Bolivar. In Argentina, Gold’s value now rests at 95,093.08 Peso’s showing a gain of 96.62 overnight with Silver at 1,073.63 Peso’s a reduction of 0.90 of a Peso. The Turkish Lira’s value for Gold now sits at 9,396.31 showing a gain of 1.3 Lira with Silver at 106.059 proving a loss of 0.282 of a Lira.

      February Silver Delivery Demands now has a count of 6 posted up on the board proving a reduction of 5 with no additional purchases done during yesterday’s activity. So far this morning we still see no activity in the delivery system at all. Yesterday’s activity proved an increase in Open Interest showing how Silver would have been priced higher had the paper shorts not been allowed to pile on more control above as the +25% paper over physical target the CFTC has been discussing with the count now at 225,115 Overnighters, proving an increase of 1,373 pieces of paper with questionable backing. Now our next question in regards to the physical warehouse count and the CFTC approved paper supply for Silver; Are the registered and eligible inventory’s combined, or are they separated, when it comes to the +25% allowance of paper? If the answer is combined, they shouldn’t be, and if they are, Hello! Get your physicals out while you can.

      February Gold’s Delivery count is now at 2,063 fully paid for contracts waiting for receipts and with a Volume of 105 up on the board with a trading range between $1,567.70 and $1,563.60 with the last trade of course at the low. Gold’s Overall Open Interest now sits at 652,490 Overnighters proving a very slight short paper exodus tallying 338 Obligations.

      We keep hearing more and more “restrictions on travel” almost everywhere on the planet due to the Coronavirus. Cruise ships are kept away from the docks as some people onboard have contracted the virus and have already spread the contagion to everyone else onboard. Now we are hearing the rumor; … “For those patients who have been cured, there is a likelihood of a relapse,” Zhan Qingyuan, the director of pneumonia prevention and treatment at the China-Japan Friendship Hospital… Most of China is in a state of dismay because one side says “panic” and the other side (government officials) says “remain calm”, yet the side that says remain calm is now claiming the Whistleblower Dr. that gave the world the warning is not dead from the virus and is sequestering the story. If the good Dr. is alive, why not have him in front of a camera saying so? While the world waits for the “truth in numbers”, we are still seeing the reasons for Boy Scouting in preparation.

Prayers are indeed in order for the world’s population. If the virus is bad enough to cause dock workers in So. Africa to refuse to unload ships from China then one has to question “is this virus airborne alone, or can surfaces also contain and spread the weaponized virus? Then this story came out supporting the very idea of a surface spread. Let’s face it, the Just In Time Delivery System has already taken a hit, supplies will dry up as more and more fears spread action across the globe. Staying in place may be what the world has to deal with.

      Also of note, I had forgotten to post the Velocity of Money chart during yesterday’s missive when I wrote … “What’s worse (maybe) is the Velocity of Money, which has made a New All Time Low (since the first quarter of 1959) and while we’re observing the Federal Reserve print machines churning in overdrive at the same time the 2 other most populated nations are doing the same….”

Regardless of all the issues (real or not), have a great weekend, keep that smile on your face and a positive attitude in the head no matter what … and as always …

Stay Strong!

Jeremiah Johnson

JeremiahJohnson@cableone.net

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early FRIDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 6.9937/ GETTING VERY DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.9987   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 9.45 POINTS OR 0.33%

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 89.43 POINTS OR 0.33%

 

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 45.61 POINTS OR 0.19%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL RED/

 

 

 

USA dollar index UP TO 98.59/Euro FALLS TO 1.0959

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. –.04/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 107.85/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 50.59 and Brent: 54.49

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE DOWN/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO -.37%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 0.97% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.29%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.34: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 1.09

3k Gold at $1565.75 silver at: 17.70   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 57/100 in roubles/dollar) 63.91

3m oil into the 50 dollar handle for WTI and 54 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 109.85 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9762 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0762 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to 0.37%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 1.61% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.08%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.9867..

Futures Slide On Fresh Virus Fears Ahead Of Payrolls As German Industrial Production Craters

Following a torrid 3% rally on “hopes” that the coronavirus epidemic is contained after last Friday’s plunge, coupled with even more “hopes” that trade relations with China are on the mend after Beijing slashed its duties on some US goods by up to 50%, overnight renewed coronavirus worries took a hit at world markets on Friday ahead of today’s payroll report (which will include major downward revisions), although the modest drop sparked by fears of a mini epidemic on board a Japanese cruise ship wasn’t going to stand in the

way of the best week for stocks since June and the strongest for the dollar since August.

U.S. equity futures dropped and European stocks pared a week of big gains as doubt spread that the spread of the coronavirus was contained, while Treasuries and safe havens climbed before American jobs data.

Europe’s trading day began with stocks down and safe-haven government bonds up, a pattern that had been set in Asia where the death toll from the virus in China has more than doubled in less than a week, and stood at 638 on Friday, 636 in China (although doubt in the veracity in the official numbers is spreading just as fast as the underlying epidemic) and two abroad and it was also revealed that one of the first doctors to raise the alarm about the virus had died from it at a hospital in Wuhan, the outbreak’s epicenter. Drops in miners and carmakers led the Stoxx Europe 600 Index lower, while luxury retailer Burberry Group slipped scrapping guidance over the virus hitting China sales. Credit Suisse slumped after ousting its CEO. The mood turned more sour as the latest data showed German industrial production had the biggest monthly tumble since the financial crisis, crushing the narrative that Germany’s economy was on the mend.

Earlier in the session, equities slipped across most of Asia as news of further infections on a cruise ship off Japan offered another reminder that cases remain on the rise, even as China is scrambling to restore a sense of calm by reported a decline in the number of news cases.

And even though the World Health Organization has said it is too early to call a peak in the outbreak, the “data” out of China sufficient for some investors-turned epidemiologists who were all too eager to believe China’s bullshit statistics: “We are not that nervous, actually we are increasing our risk allocation,” said SEB investment management’s global head of asset allocation Hans Peterson, adding the risk of a massive worldwide epidemic seemed to have dropped. “We look more at this moment at the macro data in the U.S. which is really very good… and we presume we will get substantial support from central banks like we did in China on Monday.” So… win-win: bad news is great as it will only improve, but good news is even better as central banks will provide backstops. What’s not to like.

Not everyone shared the optimism that bankers will as usual save the day: expectations the outbreak will be contained and growth will rebound from the second quarter on the back of stimulus and pent-up activity are “probably somewhat optimistic,” Sue Trinh, macro strategist at Manulife Asset Management, told Bloomberg TV. “The very real risk is that this outbreak spreads, quite literally, into the second quarter and beyond.”

After to a $400 billion wipeout on Monday, Shanghai is poised for its worst week in eight months. But the other Asian indexes are ahead and the pan-European FTSEurofirst is heading for its best week since late 2016.

Also overnight, Singapore lifted its national disease response to the second-highest level, the same one for the SARS epidemic. Apple’s Chinese iPhone maker Foxconn told employees not to return to work at its Shenzhen facility when the extended Lunar New Year break ends Feb. 10. Meanwhile, the presidents of China and the U.S. reaffirmed their commitment to the implementation of a phase-one trade deal in a phone call Friday.

Yields on 10Y TSYs dropped back to 1.61%, and have failed to breach a key technical resistance amid slowdown fears.

In FX, the euro fell to its lowest since October in early European trading after German industrial output recorded its biggest decline in a decade (see chart above) and strong U.S. employment numbers on Thursday had primed the dollar for monthly payrolls later. The yen halted a slide that has it set for its worst week in 18 months, leaving the currency sitting just above a two-week low at 109.85 per dollar. The Australian dollar, often seen as a proxy for China, weakened 0.5% to $0.6699 after the Reserve Bank of Australia slashed growth forecasts in its quarterly economic outlook, blaming its bushfires and the coronavirus. The Aussie was still on track for its first weekly gain this year, whereas Singapore dollar and Thai baht have been trampled in a rush from emerging market currencies into majors.

Owing to much greater exposure to Chinese demand and less access to the benefits of monetary stimulus, commodity prices have been more sensitive to conditions on the ground. Oil and metal prices fell hard as the coronavirus outbreak gained pace and have been slow to recover. Brent crude was a touch firmer on Friday at $55.17 per barrel, but is heading for its fifth back-to-back weekly drop having lost over 16% this year. A rally in copper – often seen as a barometer of global economic health because of its wide industrial use – stalled at $5,695 per tonne though it has been its strongest week since the start of December.

“We think that demand could come back strongly as opposed to gradually in Q2 2020,” said Commonwealth Bank commodities analyst Vivek Dhar. “But the risk in the near term is that (Chinese) provinces take longer to return to work in order to contain the spread of the virus.”

Expected data include non-farm payrolls, unemployment, and wholesale inventories. AbbVie, Avantor, and Canada Goose are among companies reporting earnings.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.3% to 3,336.50
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.2% to 424.57
  • MXAP down 0.5% to 169.76
  • MXAPJ down 0.8% to 547.76
  • Nikkei down 0.2% to 23,827.98
  • Topix down 0.3% to 1,732.14
  • Hang Seng Index down 0.3% to 27,404.27
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.3% to 2,875.96
  • Sensex down 0.3% to 41,172.95
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.4% to 7,022.58
  • Kospi down 0.7% to 2,211.95
  • German 10Y yield fell 1.8 bps to -0.388%
  • Euro down 0.2% to $1.0960
  • Italian 10Y yield unchanged at 0.798%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 1.7 bps to 0.278%
  • Brent futures little changed at $54.91/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.2% to $1,569.30
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.1% to 98.61

Top Overnight News

  • China’s January trade data was scheduled to be released Friday, but will instead be announced together with February data, according to the customs administration
  • Germany is facing a possible recession again after industrial production plunged by the most since the global financial crisis
  • A nascent recovery in Indonesian exports is under threat, with the coronavirus outbreak set to sap Chinese demand for commodities including palm oil, coal, paper and pulp
  • The death of a 34-year-old doctor on Friday has unleashed a wave of fury that is sparking a rare crisis of confidence in the Chinese Communist Party and its handling of the coronavirus outbreak
  • A Chinese doctor who was initially sanctioned for warning about the deadly Wuhan coronavirus outbreak in early January has died, stoking fresh anger online at the Communist Party-led government. The number of infections on China’s mainland climbed to more than 31,000
  • President Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping “agreed to continue extensive communication and cooperation between both sides,” White House says in readout of leaders’ call
  • OPEC expects Russia to respond in days, rather than weeks, to a production-cut proposal as the cartel confronts a price rout triggered by the collapse in petroleum demand from China, according to a delegate. U.S. weighs sanctions on Rosneft but is wary of oil market chaos
  • European Union Trade Commissioner Phil Hogan had a “useful and constructive” meeting in Washington on Thursday with his U.S. counterpart, according to an EU official
  • Pete Buttigieg holds a razor-thin lead over Bernie Sanders in the Iowa caucus with 100% of precincts reporting. Buttigieg had 26.2% to Sanders’ 26.1%, according to official results. Elizabeth Warren had 18%, Joe Biden had 15.8% and Amy Klobuchar had 12.3%. Other candidates were far behind
  • Declines in Japan’s household spending worsened in December, signaling that government measures to ease the shock of October’s sales tax hike may not be working as well as economists and policy makers expected

Asian equity markets were mostly subdued as the momentum from Wall St, where all major indices posted record levels and tech outperformed, was clouded by coronavirus fears and cautiousness heading into the latest Chinese trade data and US Non-Farm Payrolls. ASX 200 (-0.4%) was dragged lower by weakness in energy and miners amid ongoing demand concerns triggered by the outbreak in China, while Nikkei 225 (-0.2%) was indecisive with focus in Tokyo on a deluge of earnings, weaker than expected Household Spending and reports of 41 additional coronavirus cases onboard the cruise ship off Yokohama, although it wasn’t all gloom and doom as SoftBank gapped higher by 8% after Elliot Management acquired a USD 2.5bln stake. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (-0.3%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.3%) declined amid the ongoing coronavirus fears and tentativeness ahead of the trade figures which are expected to show exports and imports slipped into contraction territory, although officials have remained supportive including the PBoC’s Beijing branch which directed banks to cap interest rates offered to key enterprises at 100bps below the Loan Prime Rate. Finally, 10yr JGBs benefitted from the risk averse tone which lifted prices back above the 152.50 level, while the BoJ were also present in the market for over JPY 1.1tln of JGBs with 1yr-10yr maturities.

Top Asian News

  • Japan Lawmakers Call on BOJ to Mull Digital Yen to Counter China
  • China Delays January Trade Data to Merge With February Release
  • Taiwan Exports Plummet as Coronavirus Threatens Trade Recovery
  • Toyota, Honda Extend China Shutdowns as Virus Gathers Pace

A relatively subdued session thus far for European equities [Eurostoxx 50 -0.3%], with participants on guard amid virus jitters ahead of the release of the key US labour market report later today. APAC bouses ended the week on a mixed footing following a mostly subdued session – Mainland China eked mild gains after reports of supportive steps by the PBoC to cope with downward pressures arising from the coronavirus outbreak. Back to Europe, bourses are mostly subdued with no clear standouts. Sectors are largely in negative territory with defensives faring modestly better than cyclicals. In terms of individual movers, Credit Suisse (-2.5%) slipped to the foot of the SMI (~3% weighting) following the departure of CEO Thiam following the spying scandal. Thiam will be leaving his post on February 14th and is to be replaced by Thomas Gottstein, the current head of the bank’s Swiss business. Note: Credit Suisse will be reporting its results on February 13th.  Elsewhere, Burberry’s (-1.3%) withdrawal of guidance and bleak demand outlook for the luxury market (amid the virus outbreak) has prompted sympathy play from European peers including Richemont (-1.3%), Swatch (-0.9%), LVMH (-1.0%) and Kering (-1.5%). Fiat Chrysler (-2.2%) slid to the foot of the FTSE MIB after warning that its European plants may see closures within weeks if China closures are extended as a result of the outbreak as factories will find it difficult to source key parts. In terms of earnings, L’Oreal (+1.2%) leads the gains in the CAC amid an all-round solid report and a 10% annual increase to its dividend, although the Co. did highlight a temporary slowdown from its Chinese beauty market, a key driver of its growth. Finally, Ericsson (+4.8%) and Nokia (+6.7%) see renewed tailwinds from US AG Barr’s endorsement in Cos for 5G technology as opposed to Huawei.

Top European News

  • Nordea Fixes Bonus Culture After Investor Lambastes Bank
  • Calisen Gains After Raising $426 Million in London IPO
  • Carbon Pollution Costs Are Likely to Rise Again in Europe
  • Short Sellers’ Nordic Nightmare Attracts a $130 Billion Fund

In FX, it remains gradual and measured, but relatively resolute as the Greenback maintains positive momentum and on track to extend its winning streak amidst widespread if not universal gains vs currency rivals. Indeed, DXY pull-backs are becoming increasingly shallow and short-lived with the index now building a platform around 98.500 and just posting a fresh peak at 98.639 ahead of the next bullish chart resistance level at 98.885 (higher Fib retracement from 2019 peak to December trough). US jobs data may present a fundamental hurdle, but in the current constructive climate the bar appears high in terms of an upset to stall the Buck’s rally or halt the bull run altogether.

  • AUD/NZD – The clear G10 underperformers, as the Aussie recoils further from Tuesday’s post-RBA peaks and the Kiwi retreats partly in sympathy towards 0.6680 and 0.6400 respectively vs their US counterpart. Aud/Usd gleaned little if any traction via the SOMP or latest rhetoric from Governor Lowe as the former revealed lower GDP forecasts based on the assumption that rates will be reduced by another 25 bp. Moreover, news of a delay to Chinese trade data and the ongoing spread of the coronavirus are weighing on risk sentiment in general, as the YUAN slips back to 7.0000 against the US Dollar.
  • EUR/CAD/CHF – Also unable to resist the Greenback’s advances, with the Euro also blighted by more dire German/Eurozone data and increasingly bearish technical impulses having fallen through a sub-1.1000 Fib (1.0964) and now testing the resolve of bids around 1.0950 ahead of last October’s pre-2019 full year low (1.0941).  Similarly, the Loonie has lost grip of the 1.3300 handle, but could yet be saved from a worse fate and stops said to be poised on a break of 1.3320 by decent option expiry interest between 1.3290-1.3300, if not impending Canadian payrolls. Meanwhile, the Franc is still somewhat mixed given weakness vs the Buck below 0.97500 in contrast to strength through 1.0700 against the Euro.
  • JPY/GBP – The Yen is paring losses amidst a partial reversal in risk-on flows and renewed safe-haven positioning, with Usd/Jpy back down to circa 109.70 from just above 110.00 even though media reports suggest official GPIF sponsored selling of the Japanese unit alongside PBoC OMOs. However, the Pound is also holding up fairly well in the circumstances, as Cable hovers above 1.2900 and the post-UK GE trough, and Eur/Gbp remains capped around 0.8500.
  • NOK – Disappointing Norwegian data and another downturn in oil prices have combined to propel Eur/Nok above 10.1600 even though the single currency has its own negative factors to contend with, as noted above.

In commodities, WTI and Brent front-month futures remain choppy as focus remains on OPEC’s move following a three-day meeting by the group’s JTC. In terms of the fallout, the committee reportedly proposed a 600k supply cut to start immediately which will continue through to June if agreed by all members and they expect Russia to respond in a matter of days according to sources, while there were twitter reports of unconfirmed chatter OPEC+ are proposing extending current cuts into year-end. That said, Russian Energy Minister Novak continued to push back against these cuts stating that Russia needs a few days to analyse situation on oil market and will come up next week with its position for OPEC+ meeting due next month, although Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov that he supports the panel’s proposal of cutting oil output – but did not specify a preferred magnitude of reductions. WTI and Brent futures have largely traded on either side of USD 51/bbl and USD 55/bbl respectively before prices moved lower in tandem with sentiment. Elsewhere, spot gold treads water just under USD 1570/oz with the yellow metal’s 21 DMA seen around 1564/oz. Meanwhile, copper prices saw brutal losses after hitting resistance at USD 2.6/lb (low USD 2.55/lb) with reports noting that Chinese copper traders, the metal’s largest market, asked miners to cancel or halt shipments of the red metal as the virus outbreak takes its toll on demand.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, est. 165,000, prior 145,000
    • Average Hourly Earnings YoY, est. 3.0%, prior 2.9%
    • Change in Private Payrolls, est. 155,000, prior 139,000
    • Change in Manufact. Payrolls, est. -1,500, prior -12,000
    • Unemployment Rate, est. 3.5%, prior 3.5%
    • Average Hourly Earnings MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.1%
    • Average Weekly Hours All Employees, est. 34.3, prior 34.3
    • Labor Force Participation Rate, est. 63.15%, prior 63.2%
    • Underemployment Rate, prior 6.7%
  • 10am: Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. -0.1%, prior -0.1%; Wholesale Trade Sales MoM, est. 0.1%, prior 1.5%
  • 3pm: Consumer Credit, est. $15.0b, prior $12.5b

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Being in Dubai this week I’ve learnt something new about the climate here. The area is a significant user of cloud seeding and frequently uses the technology to encourage precipitation and also to cool down the temperatures. I wasn’t aware it could be done at such an industrial level. I’ve been doing a bit of reading on geo-engineering recently in my work on climate change and boy this is a controversial topic. I suspect it will get more attention in the years ahead as we try to fight climate change and the technology improves. Given that my last two rounds of golf at home have been cancelled due to a sodden course this is starting to influence my opinions on the topic! Looking at the stormy weather forecast for this Sunday in the U.K. and many parts of Europe I suspect I’ll be in even less control of my golf ball than usual. If you’re reading from this region then maybe make the most of Saturday this weekend!!

The storm clouds have certainly been swept away in markets this week even if the wind direction has slightly changed in the Asia session. Attention today will turn to US payrolls. In terms of what to expect from the announcement, DB’s US economists are looking for a +160k increase in nonfarm payrolls, which is basically in line with the consensus +163k call. They assume a 10k boost from temporary government hiring for the decennial census, so investor focus should be on private payrolls instead, where we’re expecting a +150k reading. Some might look for optimism given the ADP’s report of private payrolls on Wednesday, which saw a +291k increase, the most since May 2015. However the ADP reports have actually proved somewhat wide of the mark recently, with the previous month’s ADP reading overestimating the private payrolls number by +60k. Furthermore, the ISM non-manufacturing employment reading earlier this week fell to 53.1, the lowest since September.

Staying with the US, Democratic candidates will be gathering in New Hampshire for their latest TV debate tonight, which comes ahead of that state’s primary on Tuesday. We’ve seen a remarkable shift in the betting odds this week. Joe Biden, who still leads in national polling averages, has seen his PredictIt odds crash to 16%, the lowest reading of this cycle (c.35% last week). The majority of his numbers seems to have been siphoned to Buttigieg (seemingly the narrowest of winners in Iowa) and Bloomberg, as the market seems to being looking for an alternative moderate. Sanders is now up to 45%, with the more liberal wing of the party coalescing around him as Warren is down to 6%, after being over 50% back in October. The most recent polling data either omits or only partially includes days after the Iowa caucuses, but we should know in a few days how performances there and in the aftermath have affected national and regional numbers. Finally fivethirtyeight.com’s model forecasting the Democratic primary now has Sanders with a 49% chance of winning the nomination, with “no one” or a contested convention coming in second at 24%. Betting markets and polling currently look good for Sanders winning the nomination. However, equity markets do not seem to be pricing that in or – as the EMR survey from January shows – market participants do not believe in Sanders’s (or any Democrat’s) ability to beat President Trump in November. We’ll be doing our latest market survey next week so we’ll see how markets feel about the race then.

Back to yesterday now, and for the time being at least, markets seem to be taking the coronavirus in their stride, as the S&P 500 rose +0.33% to a new record, while the STOXX 600 also reached a fresh high with a +0.44% advance. Positive earnings releases supported the advance, with Twitter +15.03% and the top performer in the S&P 500 after the company reported quarterly revenue over $1bn for the first time, beating expectations. Over in Europe meanwhile, ArcelorMittal was up +11.04% as the company reported the lowest net debt since their 2006 merger and struck a positive note on the 2020 outlook.

Other asset classes continued to join in the rebound with copper, a key bellwether for global economic demand, powering forward for a 3rd consecutive session yesterday, up +0.84%, and after 13 straight days of declines before that. 10yr Treasury and Bund yields both fell around 1bps.

Coronavirus fears are resurfacing a little this morning as Japan found an additional 41 coronavirus cases (bringing the total tally to 61) on a quarantined cruise ship. It is the biggest outbreak number outside of China and the number could potentially jump higher as only 273 of the 3700 passengers on the ship have been tested so far. Meanwhile Japan has banned a separate cruise ship from berthing at a port in the country, saying a person onboard was suspected of having contracted the virus. In other related news, Japanese PM Shinzo Abe has said that Japan will put together emergency spending measures next week to address the coronavirus crisis, tapping budgeted reserves.

Back in China, the total number of infected cases now stands at 31,161 (vs. 24,324 yesterday) with the death toll at 636 (vs. 490 yesterday). Meanwhile, Pan Gongsheng, a deputy governor at the PBoC, said overnight that the central bank will give higher priority to economic growth as the virus outbreak is intensifying downward pressure on the economy, but also pledged to consider other factors such as controlling debt and the yuan exchange rate. Markets are increasingly expecting the PBoC to lower the MLF rate by 10bps around the middle of the month after it has already lowered the short term repo rates by the same amount earlier this week.

Asian markets are trading lower this morning with the Nikkei (-0.21%), Hang Seng (-0.87%), Shanghai Comp (-0.80%) and Kospi (-1.15%) all down. Elsewhere, futures on the S&P 500 are down -0.21% and the yield on 10yr USTs are down -2.1bps. Brent crude oil prices are trading up +0.18% after yesterday’s news that technical experts from OPEC+ recommended a further supply curb of 600,000 barrels a day until June even as Russia’s response over this is awaited. In addition they recommended that the current 2.1 mn barrel/day cut already in place be extended until the end of the year, rather than expiring in March as originally planned. As for overnight data releases, Japan’s December household spending came in at -4.8% yoy vs. -1.7% yoy expected and real cash earnings came in line with consensus at -0.9% yoy.

In other news, the US President Trump spoke overnight with Chinese President Xi Jinping and both sides reaffirmed their commitment to the implementation of Phase 1 deal. Elsewhere, Bloomberg reported that the US is weighing whether to sanction Russia’s biggest oil producer, Rosneft, for maintaining ties with Venezuela.

Back to the Coronavirus and yesterday our China economists released their latest update on the impact (link here), where they write that it is still too early to call it a turning point. Although the outbreak appears to be plateauing outside of Hubei province, the situation in Wuhan and Hubei may still be very difficult, and they write that the disruption to China’s economy is likely to continue in the short term. The two biggest keys to watch for according to our economists are: (1) How the virus spreads after the new round of travel post the elongated Chinese New Year and (2) How long it takes for production to get back to full capacity.

On central banks, we heard yesterday from ECB President Lagarde, who appeared before the European Parliament’s Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee. In her testimony, she highlighted the coronavirus, saying that the uncertainty from its impact was “a renewed source of concern”, and came as the Euro Area economy was showing “tentative signs of stabilisation”. Notably, she also explicitly warned of the ECB’s diminishing ability to respond to future negative shocks, saying that the “low interest rate and low inflation environment has significantly reduced the scope for the ECB and other central banks worldwide to ease monetary policy in the face of an economic downturn.” Her remarks came as we got more poor data from Germany, with factory orders surprising to the downside thanks to a -2.1% decline in December (vs. +0.6% expected). The reading brings the year-on-year decline to -8.7%, the lowest since September 2009. That said, data yesterday also showed the country’s construction PMI rising to 54.9 in January, its highest level since March.

The data from the US was somewhat better yesterday, with weekly initial jobless claims falling to 202k (vs. 215k expected), their lowest level since April, which also sent the 4-week moving average down to its lowest since April as well. We also got the preliminary nonfarm productivity data for Q4, which was up +1.4% qoq (vs. +1.6% expected), bouncing back from the first quarterly decline since 2015 in Q3. Though the reading was less than forecast, the full-year figure for 2019 was up +1.7%, the fastest increase since 2010.

Wrapping up now, and yesterday the new state premier of the German state of Thuringia stood down and called for fresh elections after one day in office. It follows an outcry after the FPD politician got the job thanks to the backing of both the CDU and the AfD, which marks the first time that the AfD have acted as kingmakers in Germany. While the story hasn’t had much of a market impact, it has roiled domestic German politics, where the major parties have all previously rejected any cooperation with the AfD. Chancellor Merkel said the vote yesterday, which also was supported by the CDU in the state, marked “a day that broke with the values and the convictions of the CDU”.

To the day ahead now, and as well as the aforementioned US jobs report, today’s data highlights include both Germany and France’s industrial production and current account balance for December, along with December retail sales from Italy. On the other side of the Atlantic, there’ll be Canada’s employment report, as well as the final US wholesale inventories figure for December. From central banks, the Fed will be releasing their semi-annual Monetary Policy Report to Congress, and we’ll also get a monetary policy decision from the Russian central bank. There isn’t much in the way of earnings today, though AbbVie is scheduled to report. Finally, ahead of New Hampshire’s primary on Tuesday, there’ll be a TV debate taking place there tonight between the Democratic candidates.

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)FRIDAY MORNING/ THURSDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 9.45 POINTS OR 0.33%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 78.43 POINTS OR 0.33%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 45.61 POINTS OR 0.19%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .36%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.9937 /Oil UP TO 50.59 dollars per barrel for WTI and 54.49 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 6.9937 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.9987 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW COMPLETE/PHASE I..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 C CHINA

CHINA/GLOBE/SUPPLY SHOCKS
The world deals in “just in time inventory”.  We have been living in this globalist concept and operations for years.  Now it will haunt the world as goods cannot get to their destination and manufactured due to the coronavirus..  in China…The entire GDP of the world begins to shut down
(zerohedge)

Supply Chain Shock – Here’s The Most Exposed S&P500 Industries To China

We noted on Wednesday night, two-thirds of the Chinese economy has effectively shut down much of its production capacity, crippling supply chains critical to keep not only the second-largest economy in the world humming, but the entire world.

Former Morgan Stanley Asia chairman Stephen Roach warned last week that the global economy could already be in a period of vulnerability, where an exogenous shock, such as the coronavirus, could be the trigger for the next worldwide recession.

Goldman Sachs has warned that virus outbreak could reduce Chinese GDP growth in 1Q by 1.6% in year-over-year terms, or 6.4% in quarter-on-quarter annual rate terms, resulting in a sub-5% GDP 1Q print. A growth shock in China will be felt across the world as the virus has severed supply chains.

As growth expectations for China and the world come down, stocks are due for a repricing event.

S&P 500 companies generate 60.5% of their revenue from the US and the rest international.

Refinitiv data shows S&P 500 firms derive 6.2% of revenue from China and Hong Kong.

The semiconductors and semiconductor equipment industry group have about 30% of revenue exposure to China and Hong Kong, which is the most exposed industry.

A great deal of Apple’s supply chain is based in China. We noted earlier this week that much of its iPhone manufacturing plants are closed but expected to open next week. But if the plants remain closed after Monday/Tuesday, then Apple could experience iPhone shortages in the month ahead.

Dozens of companies have already announced factory shutdowns and retail shuttering in the last several weeks. The expectation is to bring everything online next week, but as per a new Nikkei report on Thursday, it seems that companies, like Honda, are already starting to postpone plant openings.

The Telegraph’s Ambrose Evans-Pritchard wrote Thursday that the scale of supply chain disruptions in China and aboard is absolutely “staggering.”

We noted on Tuesday that Hyundai Motor Co. and its sister Kia Motors Corp. suspended production lines in South Korea after it was hit with a parts shortage from China.

Volkswagen, Toyota, General Motors, and Tesla have all closed their Chinese plants, as has Foxconn closed all plants making iPhones in the country.

The supply chain chaos is pushing out from China now could soon be realized in Europe.

Fiat-Chrysler might be forced to halt production at one of its European plants if the virus doesn’t clear up within the next week or two. The company is already struggling to source parts from China.

Evans-Pritchard also warned that the collapse in Chinese oil consumption is “the biggest shock to oil markets since the Lehman crisis.”

Two-thirds of China’s economy was shut down overnight and has led to a collapse in energy demand, which now poses a significant threat to corporate bond markets across the world.

Coronavirus isn’t just infecting people and killing them, it’s also creating havoc and disrupting complex supply chains that will lead many companies to revise their earnings down in 1H20.

Mohamed El-Erian, the chief economic adviser to the insurance company Allianz, said the economic damage caused by coronavirus would play this year.

El-Erian said the economic shock to Wuhan and the surrounding manufacturing hubs is happening at a time when the global economy is slowing and interest rates among central banks are near zero.

He asks: Could coronavirus be a black swan for the global economy? 

END
CHINA/THE GLOBE/CORONAVIRUS
UPDATE.//last night
The virus explodes in number on our cruise ship in Japan.  China claims a slowdown in number of new cases which is not to be believed
(zerohedge)

Virus Cases Explode On Quarantined Cruise Ship In Japan As China Claims Slowdown In Number Of New Cases

Summary:

  • Total cases stand at 31,439 as death toll climbs to 639
  • China claims the growth in people under medical observation has peaked, and is now slowing.
  • Japan reports 41 additional cases, for a total of 61 aboard the quarantined cruise ship
  • Senior CCP official orders Wuhan to round up infected residents for mass quarantine camps
  • Beijing completes second coronavirus hospital in Wuhan
  • Wuhan hospital confirms that doctor who was one of first to warn about virus died on Thursday
  • Economists warn China faces difficult dilemma in deciding when workers should return to work
  • Taiwan halts visas for citizens of Macau and Hong Kong
  • Germany confirms 13th case
  • 2 suspected cases found in South Africa
  • Dubai reports 3rd death outside China

*  *  *

Update (1955ET): Just when you thought it was safe to buy the f**king record high melt-up, TBS News reports that Japanese authorities have found another 42 people on the Diamond Princess cruise ship anchored in Yokohama have tested positive for Coronavirus.

 

TBS NEWS

@tbs_news

【速報】横浜に停泊中のクルーズ船内に新たに41人の新型コロナ感染者 厚労省

View image on Twitter

Japan says 273 people on the cruise ship were tested and 61 were found positive, and the 41 new patients have been sent to hospitals in 5 separate prefectures.

*  *  *

Update (1925ET)China has just released its latest “official” data on the coronavirus, and just as we had suspected (given the precipitous slowdown from exponential growth yesterday), the acceleration has now ‘officially’ ended with 185,555 people under medical observation today, DOWN 309 from the 186,354 the prior day.

Mission Accomplished? Bear in mind that the average increase for all prior days was 17,159.

Of course, the number of cases and deaths is still increasing with 637 dead in China and 31,161 cases.

Even here China appears to be manipulating the data and instead of using an exponential growth rate as is the case for epidemics, is applying a quadratic equation to goalseek the numbers.

That said, according to the official data, the number of new confirmed and suspected cases appears to be slowing:

We wonder if the almost nationwide lockdown and policy shift to remaining in your home unless “severely” ill was the factor behind the slowdown in people receiving medical attention? Or whether it is a miracle that no ‘expert’ saw coming… apart from The WHO who all along claimed the “extreme measures” by China were “breathtaking.”

*  *  *

Update (1615ET): A senior Chinese official has ordered Wuhan authorities to immediately round up all residents infected with the novel coronavirus and place them in isolation, quarantine camps, or designated hospitals, according to the New York Times.

 

Inside the exhibition center in Wuhan that now serves as a hospital.Credit…Chinatopix, via Associated Press

City investigators have also been ordered to go to each home and check the temperature of every resident, as well as conduct interviews with infected patients’ close contacts.

“Set up a 24-hour duty system. During these wartime conditions, there must be no deserters, or they will be nailed to the pillar of historical shame forever,” said Sun Chunlan, a vice premier in charge of leading the CCP’s response to the outbreak.

The city’s authorities have raced to meet these instructions by setting up makeshift mass quarantine shelters this week. But concerns are growing about whether the centers, which will house thousands of people in large spaces, will be able to provide even basic care to patients and protect against the risk of further infection. –NYT

* * *

Update (1440ET): Dubai just reported that a woman from the Philippines has died in the UAE. In response, the UAE has suspended flights to China except to Beijing. The Manila Times reported the death, citing the Philippines’ labor secretary.

The virus’s global death toll has climbed to 568.

The victim was identified as Amalia Collado Dapronoza, 58. Her death comes as 178 other patients remain under observation in the tiny Gulf kingdom. The Philippines is one of several countries planning to rescue its citizens from Wuhan, and a group of 45 filipinos from Wuhan are set to return to the Philippines on Feb. 9.

In Hong Kong, 3,600 people were preparing to spend a second night confined aboard the World Dream as authorities test everyone aboard after eight passengers caught the virus.  Health officials in the financial hub said they were also asking some 5,000 Hong Kongers who had traveled on the ship since mid-January to contact them.

We mentioned earlier that Beijing had finished building the second of two coronavirus hospitals built in Wuhan over the past week and a half. Well, here’s a cool time-lapsed video of its construction:

Taylor Umlauf

@TaylorUmlauf

China finished building the second of two coronavirus hospitals in just over a week. How they built them so quickly: https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-china-can-build-a-coronavirus-hospital-in-10-days-11580397751 

Embedded video

* * *

Update (1230ET): Beijing has finished construction on the  second coronavirus hospital in Wuhan – so hopefully more of the desperate patients stuck dying in their homes might soon have a bed at a public facility where their treatment can be overseen by doctors.

Chinese state media said the Leishenshan hospital, which will join the Huoshenshan hospital that opened Monday, will provide 1,600 beds and be staffed by 2,000 medical personnel. The project took roughly ten days.

As we reminded readers earlier, the WHO appears to have gladly taken up the task of backing up Beijing’s propaganda. But on Thursday, it confirmed a bit of bad news, saying that the doctor who was punished for his early warnings about the outbreak had succumbed to the virus. Now, Wuhan Central Hospital is denying that Li Wenliang, one of eight doctors who was punished by local police for his warnings, has died.

Instead, they said he was alive, but in critical condition, according to SCMP.

“In the fight against the pneumonia epidemic of the new coronavirus infection, our hospital’s ophthalmologist Li Wenliang was unfortunately infected. He is currently in critical condition and we are trying our best to resuscitate him,” it said in its official Weibo account.

Li, 34, an ophthalmologist at the Wuhan Central Hospital, was found to be infected with coronavirus on Saturday.

“We are very sorry to hear the loss of any frontline worker who is committed to care for patients…we should celebrate his life and mourn his death with his colleagues,” said Michael Ryan, director of the World Health Organisation’s health emergencies programme, said during a briefing on Thursday.

With Citadel’s Ken Griffin becoming the latest to warn about supply chain disruptions related to the virus, Beijing is facing a difficult choice when it comes to deciding when workers should return to their desks or assembly lines.

In a separate SCMP story, economist Lu Zhengwei said allowing the workforce to return to their jobs was crucial both for supporting the economy and ultimately ending the epidemic.

“It’s obviously desirable for employers who are now paying rent, salaries and social welfare for their employees, for nothing in return,” he said, adding that most small and medium enterprises in China could only last about a month in the current situation.

Meanwhile, a handful of new deaths have been confirmed by the SCMP:

As the death toll climbs, doctors told the NYT that the number of deaths and cases are likely being undercounted.

Many doctors believe that the number of deaths and infections are undercounted because hospitals and laboratories are under severe strain to test for the virus. Local officials in Hubei, the center of the outbreak, have called on health care workers to speed up the process.

As we reported below, there have been many anecdotal reports about sick people being turned away by hospitals in Wuhan.

Advisory firm Oxford Economics has lowered its growth outlook for China to 5.4% in 2020, down from 6%, and Goldman analysts believe the outbreak will ultimately shave 2 percentage points off global GDP by the time it’s all said and done.

Earlier, Taiwan halted visas for citizens of Hong Kong and Macau, saying on Thursday that it would suspend its online and landing visa services indefinitely for Hong Kong and Macau citizens, while non-citizens of Hong Kong and Macau with a history of travel to mainland China, Hong Kong or Macau would also be barred from visiting Taiwan. These measures will no doubt further infuriate Beijing, which has lashed out against “fearmongering” abroad.

“Beginning [midnight Thursday], we will suspend online and landing visa application services” until further notice, announced Chiu Chui-cheng, vice-chairman of Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council, which sets the island’s policies towards mainland China.

They’re also temporarily banning cruise ships from docking – can’t say we blame them.

More suspected cases of the virus have been discovered in Africa, though none have been confirmed yet. Still, African health officials have been scrambling to brace for outbreaks; they’re hoping to suppress the virus before the outbreaks can overwhelm their fragile health systems, according to News24.

Two suspected coronavirus cases have been reported in KwaZulu-Natal although there was not yet any laboratory confirmation, the provincial health department said on Thursday.

Spokesperson Noluthando Nkosi said one case was being handled by a departmental facility, while the other was at a private facility in Durban.

“The department is monitoring the treatment and management of these patients quite closely.”

Nkosi said the public would be notified should there be any new developments, urging people to “remain calm and avoid being misled by false statements which are peddled on social media platforms.”

On Wednesday, a patient in Limpopo was cleared after being held in isolation at Ellisras Hospital in Lephalale.

In other news, Germany has confirmed its 13th coronavirus case, a case we imagine will also be found to be a human-to-human infection.

* * *

Update (1100ET): Is this the WHO’s “Mission Accomplished?”

During a press conference in Switzerland Thursday evening, Dr. Tedros, the WHO’s director-general, thanked the Gates Foundation (which committed $100 million) and Japan (which contributed $10 million) for answering the organization’s call for more funding to help suppress the coronavirus outbreak that has now claimed more than 560 lives, mostly in China. He also claimed that the number of new and suspected cases is finally starting to slow, a sign that the outbreak could be subsiding, and that the China-led response has been a success.

Though researchers have already mapped the virus’s DNA and are already working on a remedy, there is still a lot we don’t know about the virus, Dr. Tedros said. We don’t know where it came from (though there are theories) and we don’t 100% understand how it spreads. There are also many tools we don’t have, like a vaccine, that will hopefully soon be developed. In effect, “we’re shadow-boxing with the virus,” Dr. Tedros said. “We need to bring it into the light.”

The organization continued to sidestep questions about China’s censorship and its initial reluctance to share information about the outbreak with the international community.

Responding to a reporter’s question, the WHO rep confirmed that the doctor who was one of the first to detect the virus before being ignored and eventually sickened has now died.

Dr. Li Wenliang, the Chinese whistleblower doctor who warned the public about the outbreak back in December, succumbed to the virus in Wuhan on Thursday, the WHO said.

* * *

Thousands of athletes around the world breathed a sigh of relief on Thursday when Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe confirmed that the Summer Olympics in Tokyo won’t be delayed. Then again, if the outbreak continues to worsen in Japan and the broader region, who is going to want to come if they don’t feel safe?

As the second week of global pandemic panic comes to a close, China, increasingly frustrated that their ruse with the WHO didn’t manage to calm the international community, again registered its “strong objections” to the growing number of travel bans directed at its citizens.

The warning followed a decision by Taiwan’s health authority to ban all international cruise ships from docking at the island from Thursday as the number of suspected outbreaks aboard cruise ships grows.

The global death toll has ticked higher, reaching 566 overnight, while the total number of confirmed cases has broken above 28,000 to 28,384.

More than a dozen countries have imposed some kind of restriction on foreigners who have recently visited China. Within China, images of police clad in hazmat suites and touting infrared thermometers have become frighteningly common. Many airlines cancelled passenger routes to China, and some are extending those cancellations out to March or April.

“China is strongly concerned and dissatisfied,” said a spokeswoman for China’s Foreign Ministry. “We hope relevant countries will bear in mind overall relations and people’s interests and resume normal operation of flights to guarantee normal people-to-people exchange and cooperation.”

“I must stress that certain countries’ ill-advised decisions to suspend flights to and from China are neither cool-headed nor rational,” she added.

But while Beijing tries to spin the narrative to accuse other countries of racism, some brave journalists have shared the stories of families brave – or foolish – enough to speak out against the regime.

One resident of Wuhan who has been stuck in the city since the quarantine told the BBC that his uncle died in a quarantine because of supply shortages.

The image of life in Wuhan is every bit as bad as the most chilling conspiracies would have you believe.

“My uncle actually died in one of the quarantine points because there are no medical facilities for people with severe symptoms. I really hope my father can get some proper treatment but no-one is in contact with us or helping us at the moment.”

“I got in touch with community workers several times, but the response I got was, ‘there’s no chance of us getting a bed in the hospital.'”

Beijing, which just announced a spate of new treatment-related projects in Wuhan and the surrounding area, seemingly can’t get beds online fast enough. Because the government is literally condemns some elderly patients to die in their homes.

But for people like us, we can’t even get a bed now, let alone get one in the new hospitals.

If we follow the government’s guidelines, the only place we can go now is to those quarantine points. But if we went, what happened to my uncle would then happen to dad.

So we’d rather die at home.

Many are saying that if they knew authorities would lock down Wuhan last week, they would have left for the holiday earlier.

What I want to say is, if I knew they were going to lock down the city on 23 January, I would have definitely taken my whole family out, because there’s no help here.

If we were somewhere else, there might be hope. I don’t know whether people like us, who listened to the government and stayed in Wuhan, made the right decision or not.

In news from outside China, Indonesia is reportedly planning to build a quarantine center on an uninhabited island to isolate coronavirus victims, even though Indonesia has yet to record a single case of the virus, though 243 have been quarantined on the island of Natuna.

Across the globe, health officials are racing to develop treatments and testing methods for the virus. Wuhan, ground zero of the outbreak, opened an emergency test laboratory on Wednesday to begin human trials.

Over in Hong Kong, a top public health official has declared a community outbreak, according to the SCMP.

A day after the city government revealed that it would impose a mandatory 14-day quarantine on anybody crossing into Hong Kong from China, the city government has provided some more details on how it will combat the crisis. Most of the new cases in the city are being caused by human-to-human transmission. Six people have been diagnosed with the coronavirus over the past few days, five of whom had not left the city recently. Of the 21 cases in total, eight are believed to have no travel history relevant to the coronavirus.

Circling back to the mainland, local authorities in the city of Tianjin announced on Thursday that it would ban the exit and entry of its villages and compounds, becoming the latest city to essentially quarantine its entire population. Over in Wuhan, authorities are now demanding that all residents report their temperatures at least once per day.

So, that’s 60+ million people under quarantine in China. And though the pace of new cases in the country has slowed slightly, the virus is accelerating, especially in Asia.

END
CHINA/CORONAVIRUS/THIS MORNING
My goodness 1/4 of all China is now quarantined as the huge city of Guangzhou joins the list
(zerohedge)

A Stunning 400 Million People Are On Lockdown In China As Guangzhou Joins Quarantine

Guangzhou, the capital of China’s southwestern Guangdong Province and the country’s fifth largest city with nearly 15 million residents, has just joined the ranks of cities imposing a mandatory lockdown on all citizens, effectively trapping residents inside their homes, with only limited permission to venture into the outside world to buy essential supplies.

The decision means 3 provinces, 60 cities and 400 million people are now facing China’s most-strict level of lockdown as Beijing struggles to contain the coronavirus outbreak as the virus has already spread to more than 2 dozen countries.

That’s more than 400 million people forcibly locked inside their homes for 638 deaths? Just think about that: If there was ever a reason to believe that Beijing is lying about the numbers (and not just because Tencent accidentally leaked the real data), this is it.

 

曾錚 Jennifer Zeng@jenniferatntd

Breaking: Guangzhou City (population: 14 M) locked down. All residential blocks be isolated from each other. So far around 400 million people locked down in to contain . Original Chinese official report:http://m.xinhuanet.com/gd/2020-02/07/c_1125542462.htm 

View image on Twitter

Meanwhile, in the US, the Trump Administration has directed researchers to investigate the ‘true origins’ of the virus, as ‘conspiracy theories’ and misinformation spreads online. We can’t help but wonder: What if the scientists discover something that the regime in Beijing doesn’t want them to see?

曾錚 Jennifer Zeng@jenniferatntd

白宮要求美國科學家和醫學研究者調查 的起源。 https://twitter.com/jenniferatntd/status/1225739720283611136 

曾錚 Jennifer Zeng@jenniferatntd

The White House has asked U.S. scientists and medical researchers to investigate the scientific origins of the novel #coronavirus, as misinformation about the outbreak spreads online. #CoronavirusOutbreak

Elsewhere, Singapore raised its national disease response level to Orange, the second-highest level and the same level from the SARS epidemic, according to the city-state’s health ministry. It also confirmed three new coronavirus cases. While investigations are ongoing, none of the three appear to have a history of recent travel to China, suggesting they picked up the virus in Singapore.

‘Orange’ means the outbreak “is severe and spreads easily from person to person” but “has not spread widely in Singapore and is being contained,” according to the Disease Outbreak Response System Condition color-coded framework. Singapore has never invoked its highest level, red, per BBG.

 

Foreigners are complaining that the new hospitals in Wuhan are merely ‘quarantine centers’ without any medical resources.

Thomas@owishemwe

Dear Gov’t of Uganda,

The famous makeshift “hospitalsh the Chinese Gov’t is bragging about are not hospitals, they are quarantine areas where patients are not receiving any treatment at all. Is this the place you’re saying is safer for us ?

Embedded video

Yesterday, Beijing argued that the virus outbreak had ‘peaked’ as they cited a drop in the rate of new infections. However, others have suggested that the rate of new confirmed cases has more to do with Beijing’s limited resources.

Mark B. Spiegel@markbspiegel

It’s been said by others but I’ll say it too:

The way China is reporting almost an identical number of new coronavirus cases each day (approximately 3000) MUST be a reflection of its diagnosis capacity rather than the true caseload, which is likely much worse.

The WHO said during a press conference on Thursday that it’s too early to claim that the outbreak has peaked, even as the outlook for the global economy falls off a cliff.

END
CHINA
Goods cannot get to the people because of the quarantine:  truckloads of tropical fruit are rotting at Thailand’s border with China.  Farmers are hammered
(zerohedge)

Truckloads Of Tropical Fruit Are Rotting At China’s Border As Outbreak Hammers Farmers

Secretary of Agriculture Sonny Perdue said Thursday that China might need more time to fulfill its commitment to buy tens of billions of dollars in American farm products. But while President Trump has already promised more money will flow to beleaguered farmers as part of the White House’s farm bailout, impoverished farmers in southeast Asia have nowhere to turn to compensate for the thousands of tons of fruits and veggies rotting along their borders with China.

For years, China has been the biggest buyer for farmers in Thailand, Myanmar and Vietnam, Nikkei reports. Now, with the coronavirus closing down importers and weighing on demand, farmers are being forced to instead sell their products in local markets for a serious discount.

“The coronavirus has undoubtedly hurt business,” said Maung Phyu, a 48-year-old farmer north of Yangon, in an interview with the Nikkei Asian Review. “There aren’t many things the [Myanmar] government can do for us in this situation.”

Over the last decade, as China’s population boomed, the county became the biggest buyer of fruits and vegetables from its neighbors. Thailand and Vietnam now export about 25% of their agricultural products to China, while Myanmar sends more than 50% of its harvest according to ASEANStats.

In the poorest, most rural parts of these three countries, farming is critical: without it, local economies could collapse.

One farmer said he sent dozens of truckloads of fruit to the border with China’s Yunnan Province every day during the harvest season. Now, those shipments have stopped, while some have spoiled after being unexpectedly held up at the border.

Three years ago, Maung Phyu contracted with several Chinese traders to supply watermelons and muskmelons. Almost every day during the harvest season, he would send truckloads of fruit to Muse, a border town in China’s southernmost Yunnan Province. He sent 70 shipments in December followed by 120 in January.

But now all shipments have stopped, and even transporting goods to the border is discouraged. “We were told not to send our produce to the border, as there was nobody to buy it,” said Maung Phyu.

Fishery products like crabs and eels are also being held up, said a commerce ministry official in Muse.

The situation has forced Maung Phyu to sell at domestic markets in Yangon, where watermelons go for only 3,000 kyat to 5,000 kyat ($2.00 to $3.50) each, compared with 10,000 kyat on the export market. Muskmelons also only fetch 50% to 70%. “Many farmers haven’t harvested their crops, and when they do they’ll have nowhere to bring them,” he said.

Since millions of Chinese have been ordered not to leave their homes, shopping for fresh fruit and vegetables has become far more difficult.

He said the lockdowns in Chinese cities have disrupted logistics while tighter border inspections have lengthened wait times, causing fruit to spoil before it gets to market. “Chinese have been ordered to stay home, and that means no shoppers,” said Jira. “And if they manage to go out, they only buy necessities, not durian.”

Thailand’s durian farmers, who recently expanded their operations following a spike in demand for durian in China, are being left in the lurch.

Durian farms in Thailand have also been hit just as the harvest season is set to begin. Production is forecast at 956,000 tons this year – up about 27% from 2019 – on the back of growing demand from Chinese traders and tourists.

Helping drive China’s newfound appetite for the fruit has been Jack Ma, founder of e-commerce giant Alibaba Group Holding. In April 2018, Ma said he would start selling durian online. He then stunned Thai officials by selling 80,000 durians in just one minute on his shopping site.

But instead of cashing in on increased Chinese sales this year, growers face disaster. Nearly one million tons of durian is expected to flood the market from late February, with few buyers in sight. “We can’t do anything except pray for an end to the outbreak,” said Jira Payungporn, a durian trader in Chantaburi Province, home to Thailand’s premium durian.

Paiboon Wongchatsathit, president of the Thai Fresh Fruit Traders and Exporters Association, said Thailand has lost a good chance to boost durian exports.

He said prices are expected to fall sharply this year, angering farmers, who will likely call for government support. “Prices could fall to 50 baht ($1.60) per kilogram, down from 180 baht during last year’s boom,” Paiboon said.

Presently, hundreds of containers of Vietnamese dragonfruit are at risk of spoiling at the border after China closed nine border crossings with its neighbor (likely in response to Vietnam’s decision to cut off movement of people and goods from China).

Meanwhile, local media in Vietnam have reported that hundreds of containers loaded with dragon fruits and watermelons are stuck at border crossings. “China closed nine border crossings [with Vietnam] for import and export activities last week,” the vice chairman of Lang Son Province said on Monday. “If the border remains closed, Vietnamese exports will suffer significant harm.”

The official said more than 300 container trucks are waiting at the Lang Son border crossing, including 190 containers of dragon fruit.

Hopefully, these farmers can cultivate markets elsewhere: given America’s ever-changing food trends, maybe durian will be the next “super fruit”?

END

CHINA
Figures!!  China is keeping a mask on the true numbers of victims. Now  journalists who have exposed the Beijing lies in Wuhan have suddenly vanished
(zerohedge)

Citizen Journalists Who Exposed Beijing’s Lies In Wuhan Have Suddenly Vanished

As we reported late Thursday evening, the death toll from the viral outbreak on mainland China has surpassed 600. With global markets once again in the red, Bloomberg reports that Beijing has silenced two of the citizen journalists responsible for much of the horrifying footage seeping onto western social media.

As BBG’s reporter explains, Chinese citizen journalists Chen Qiushi and Fang Bin have effectively been “the world’s eyes and ears” inside Wuhan (much of the film produced by American news organizations has consisted of drone footage). In recent days, SCMP and other news organizations reporting on the ground and publishing in English have warned that Beijing has stepped up efforts to censor Chinese social media after allowing citizens to vent their frustrations and share news without the usual scrutiny.

On Wednesday, China said its censors would conduct “targeted supervision” on the largest social media platforms including Weibo, Tencent’s WeChat and ByteDance’s Douyin. All in an effort to mask the dystopian nightmare that life in cities like Wuhan has become.

But that brief period of informational amnesty is now over, apparently. Fang posted a dramatic video on Friday showing him being forcibly detained and dragged off to a ‘quarantine’. He was detained over a video showing corpses piled up in a Wuhan hospital. However, he has already been released.

Chen, meanwhile, seems to have vanished without a trace, and is believed to still be in government detention. We shared one of Chen’s more alarming videos documenting the severe medical supply shortages and outnumbered medical personnel fighting a ‘losing battle’ against the outbreak.

The crackdown on these journalists comes amid an outpouring of public anger over the death of a doctor who was wrongly victimized by police after attempting to warn the public about the outbreak. Beijing tried to cover up the death, denying it to the western press before the local hospital confirmed.

The videos supplied by the two citizen journos have circulated most freely on twitter, which is where most in-the-know Chinese go for their latest information about the outbreak. Many “hop” the “great firewall” via a VPN.

“There’s a lot more activity happening on Twitter compared with Weibo and WeChat,” said Maya Wang, senior China researcher at Human Rights Watch. There has been a Chinese community on Jack Dorsey’s short-message platform since before President Xi Jinping rose to power, she added, but the recent crackdown has weakened that social circle.

Chen has now been missing for more than 24 hours, according to several friends in contact with BBG News.

Chen has been out of contact for a prolonged period of time. His friends posted a message on his Twitter account saying he has been unreachable since 7 p.m. local time on Thursday. In a texted interview, Bloomberg News’s last question to Chen was whether he was concerned about his safety as he’s among the few people reporting the situation on the front lines.

It’s all part of the great crackdown that Beijing is enforcing, even as the WHO continues to praise the Communist Party for its ‘transparency’.

“After lifting the lid briefly to give the press and social media some freedom,” said Wang about China’s ruling Communist Party, the regime “is now reinstating its control over social media, fearing it could lead to a wider-spread panic.”

With a little luck, the world might soon learn Chen’s whereabouts. Then again, there’s always the chance that he’s never heard from again.

END

Michael Every/Global GDP vs Coronavirus

A must read as Every analyzes what will happen to global GDP if this virus persists

(Michael Every)i

Rabobank: The Dilemma Facing China Is Truly Awful

Submitted by Michael Every of Rabobank

As has been the case since Monday’s sell-off, there is an attempt to try to look on the bright side of the virus headlines. Chinese officials are spreading the word globally that things are under control and that other countries should not be closing their borders to China, in line with the WHO recommendations that says that free-flows of people during a potential epidemic is completely fine. Of course, at home China is still under draconian lockdown, with tens of millions of people not allowed to leave their homes, and hundreds of millions more voluntarily following the same advice. Moreover, as a former Mexican ambassador to China publicly notes, when Mexico briefly suffered from H1N1 bird ‘flu back in 2009 China’s response was to ignore the WHO’s recommendations and: place all Mexican nationals in China under quarantine; cancel all direct flights to Mexico; stop issuing visas to Mexicans; and closed all its consulates in Mexico.

After having extended its Lunar New Year break, and yet with more cities and firms still shutting down than doing any re-opening, Beijing is starting to become cognizant of just how deep and serious the economic damage is going to be if this goes on much longer. We are, after all, talking about 80% of the economy, and 90% of exporters, simply not functioning. This is already seeing supply-chain knock-on effects for a swathe of global firms and this, very much like the virus itself, will snowball as time passes if nothing changes. For a country that was already seeing foreign firms talk about shifting production to other locations this is a problem. Thus, perhaps, some of the urgency in trying to stress that everything is returning to normal soon, and that the WHO advice is worth following – this time.

S&P, for example, are suggesting the virus might knock 0.8ppts off of 2020 GDP growth in China. That sounds a lot, doesn’t it? Until we realise that 80% of China’s GDP is probably shrinking by 10-20% y/y right now, a slump that makes the peak of 2008-09 look like a picnic by comparison and which frankly defies traditional economic statistical analysis of the S&P variety, where outliers like this get “winsorized” away and the underlying equilibrium GDP model kicks in and drags us back to a trend rate of growth again by magic. (Very much like an apparatchik, as I was saying yesterday.)

During The Great Recession did *everybody* stay at home and almost all business shut down? I don’t recall that being the case. If this virus *is* all over in days then one can make the case that Q2, Q3, and Q4 will see a huge bounce in GDP into double digits as everyone restarts work and eats out more, etc. Yet if this drags on through Q1 and into Q2–and I have not seen any serious virologists, merely not-at-all-serious economists, suggest such a rapid return to normal is possible–then the negative effects in the first third of the year are going to be so bad that the rest of the year is never realistically going to get us back close to 6% y/y GDP growth again, or 5.2%, regardless of empty new skyscrapers and shiny subways and high-speed trains. Surely the whole year will be flat at best? Obviously, 2021 GDP will then be gangbusters in Q1 and Q2 (“so buy stocks!”) – but there will also be lasting damage if this drags on as SMEs shut down and don’t reopen, and as already capital-constrained banks are forced to bail everyone out, and as the PBOC is then forced to bail banks out. Market calm that does not make for.

Yes, are we seeing a slowdown in new virus cases reported this morning. We now have 31,481, which does show a day-to-day decline away from an exponential rate of growth *if accurate*. Yet for those market participants merrily saying this is “just a flu” (there are some) we also have 4,824, 15% of the total, in critical condition, and 638 deaths. Further, one arguably cannot measure the death-rate of any virus against the number of *currently* sick people: you surely measure it against those who eventually recover vs. those who don’t. Given we have 1,563 who have recovered vs. 638 dead (and 4,824 critical) that is a worrying ratio of 29% dead as an end-outcome, which is right up there with the MERS virus from a few years ago – although, yes, there is real reason for us all to hope that number will decline sharply as milder cases will be fully curable. But a simple flu this is not.

The quandary for China between releasing the quarantine straitjacket in days to stop its economy from getting truly sick, and allowing a virus like this to spread further as people start to mingle again is truly awful. There are no good options. For a world with a serious lack of final end-demand, and which has been relying on China, along with increasingly “Chinese” central banks, this is going to be a nasty shock either way that Mr Market is treating like he is Mr Magoo. (Oh, and Donald Trump was apparently “apoplectic” with PM Boris Johnson over his recent Huawei decision in a recent call, with suggestions that the UK might now be trying to backtrack; the US is allegedly also floating the idea of buying shares in firms like Nokia and Ericsson to help build a Western 5G alternative. Something else for China to be worrying about, of course.)

For example, Bloomberg is this morning trying to sell the fact that Chinese government bond yields are dropping (-33bp this year) as a good news story. It isn’t, even if that single trade is one I have long supported if one simply has to be in Chinese markets. If China is seeing its yields plummet, what does that say about global growth prospects? What does that say about global reflation? It’s a long bonds story – full stop. Of course, lower yields mathematically means higher P/E ratios for equities too (“so buy stocks!”). Until yields have gone as low as they ever can, real activity has ground to a halt, and we have a world where bonds can’t go any higher, equities can’t go any higher, central banks and governments can’t afford to let either collapse, and only FX markets have any pricing function.

Talking of pricing functions, the RBA have hilariously used their Statement on Monetary Policy this morning to make clear that rates are on hold right now, and that further rate cuts could do more harm than good with only two left in the can before QE has to start. I always guessed these guys spent all day on the Domain.com property website, but the timing is pure black comedy, as is their call that the unemployment rate will be going down and not up just as Chinese tourism collapses. On which note, today has already seen Japanese household spending collapse -4.8% y/y in December before anyone even sneezed and real labour earnings -0.9% y/y. Gambatte, ne?

Also talking of pricing functions, this time political, and of black comedy the US Iowa Democratic caucus moved into even more surreal areas yesterday, with a press report that up to 30% of the votes might have been tabulated wrong due to bad math skills; then a very slow final count; then populist Bernie Sanders taking the lead and publicly claiming victory; and at the same instant the Democratic National Congress chairman Tom Perez saying an “immediate recanvas” was needed instead. In the UK they called that a “People’s Vote” – perhaps he could use that terminology? Meanwhile, previous Iowa ‘winner’ Mayor Pete is busy appointing ex-Goldman Sachs staff to his campaign team. Hope and Change, people.

end
Robert H sent this for us and it is a must read
from Stuff.co nz and special thanks to Robert for sending it
CORONAVIRUS IS  FAR FROM UNDER CONTROL:

Coronavirus is far from under control, and the threat to the global economy is growing | Stuff.co.nz

I encourage you to carefully read this article, the truth of this severe virus threat is not to be under estimated.

A legal term called “Force Majeure”, that is seldom used in business, is now being used by Chinese copper traders to get out of contact obligations. It is similar to the term used by attorneys known as “an act of god”. They will often write up a contract in business dealings and add the the possibility of “an act of god”, that they would not be responsible for and would not be held liable for, if it happened.

With the massive virus outbreak in China and the disruption of labor by the tens of millions, it was bound to slow down a broad variety of businesses. This would allow a company that is under contract to deliver services or products, to not be held liable for the disruption because of the “Force Majeure”.

I predict this is just the beginning of known defaults on contracts and obligations by Chinese companies which will spread to Chinese banks who will default on counter party obligations. There will be no doubt a measured effort to conceal the scope of the liquidity problem but it will be short in duration. Factor in that the losses to companies with operations there will be staggering as the workshop to the world ceases to produce for a long time. Such loss will impair household name companies and in due course I believe the world will turn off China choosing to redirect factories to more safer locals as it will be a very long time before the world trusts China. Chinese dreams of global hegemony are wisps of smoke as one may question whether they make in current form. And globalist illusions of control are finished as people will turn to local suppliers on mass for products. People will not take the risk of foreign products depend on part supply from China. It may take some time, but I suggest that car sales will rise for domestic vehicles and European ones. As it is now, there is a loss of at least 30 days of supply chain activity which cannot be made up easily and the virus fallout in China is far from being known or being contained.

Expect mass liquidity fallout to spread around the global within the next 30 days, as banks and corporate entities start to see first hand the impact to balance sheets and cash losses and stock market reactions. And should you want or need products that require Chinese factory input then the time to buy is likely now while supply chains have abundant product as supply will shrink and people will hike prices as a result. And those products depend on Chinese capital are in for a rude awakening as it is simply gone. As are those companies depend on Chinese consumption as 1st quarter shocks are delivered to their sales and balance sheets and reacted to when reported to investors at large. I imagine during the 2nd quarter there will be stampede out of such investments.

In such times of what will be global realignment, focus will be on safety of capital and capital investment not just short term but long term as countries and companies adjust to new realities. Real economic activity will local driven by local need so things like housing, personal health etc. will be localized by demand and lose the influence from China. While other Asian demand and capital will seek safe heaven investments in companies and countries and cities they see as stable in this sea of change.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/world/119334136/coronavirus-is-far-from-under-control-and-the-threat-to-the-global-economy-is-growing

END

Robert to me:  5: 13 pm est

Think twice about a cruise

The Holland America Line cruise ship MS Westerdam has been trying to dock for days but has been Informing potential ports there are about 1400 passengers with symptoms of Coronavirus on board.  Three ports have DENIED the vessel permission to dock, let alone take on supplies or let off passengers or crew.

The ship was previously denied entry to the Philippines and Japan, and is now being turned away from Guam.

No word yet on where it will try to dock next.

Assume there are roughly 3,500 guests aboard and a crew of at least 500. So roughly speaking 35% of the people on board are exhibiting symptoms. What does this say about the likelihood of spread of the virus in a contained area? I have been told and read that the virus can live for days on a doorknob. How do you feed such a group and how can one imagine that the handling of cutlery or glassware or plates, let alone food is sterile? Can you imagine trying to clean a cabin?

Will this be the first floating coffin? How do you sanitize a vessel at what cost and at what point do you assume that everyone is infected ? Sounds like a horror flick. The question is what will the world do or will this be a first of such incidents. We are vastly unprepared for such calamity.

Watch the cruise line business tank as this continues because fear will take over and people will not board vessels of any kind. And all kinds of island economies depend on cruise ship tourism are going to be greatly affected, whether out real threat or fear of the unknown.

And I wondered why, I have seen island real estate being steeply discounted.

Cheers

Robert

 

end

 I believe that their GDP  Q1 will drop below zero:  JPMorgan says it will crash to 1%

(zerohedge)

JPMorgan Now Expects China Q1 GDP To Drop To 1%, Crash To -4% If Coronavirus Is Not Contained

Over the past week, Wall Street’s attention has shifted away from the human toll of the Coronavirus pandemic, which according to conventional wisdom is that it “appears to be contained” and will peak some time in March with roughly 85,000 cases, and has instead moved to estimating the economic fallout from the disease, both in China and internationally.

As we discussed earlier this week, Goldman Sachs expects coronavirus to whack as much as 2% from Global GDP in Q1, as a result of China’s GDP growth – currently the world’s largest following material downward revisions to how India’s economy is measured (amid allegations of flagrant and purposeful miscalculations) – sliding to 4% and, with China’s economy now a quite material ~17% of the global economy, the collapse in economic contribution from Chinese tourism and trade, not to mention crippled supply chains, it is now widely accepted that as China sneezes the world will be impacted.

Following in Goldman’s footsteps, overnight JPMorgan’s economists led by Joseph Lupton write that as the coronavirus outbreak continues, “we have made significant revisions to our activity forecasts for China, with knock-on effects across the globe.

As a result, following a second consecutive downward revision to JPM’s GDP base case for China (from 6.0% to 5.6%), the largest US bank now has GDP growth slowing to just 1% q/q saar in 1Q, but then rebounding sharply to 9.3% in 2Q with a modest additional boost to 3Q. This is of course assumes that the pandemic will be contained some time in late Q1; if that doesn’t happen all bets are off.

 

As JPM further writes, its 1Q growth forecast “now stands more than 5%-pts lower than our pre-outbreak forecast” and adds that it now also anticipates even larger swings in industrial production from the ongoing factory shutdowns, with IP growth of -4.2% q/q saar in 1Q but a bounce-back of 16.5% for 2Q—more than a 10%-pt revision in each direction. Retail sales in China would experience a similarly-sized collapse in 1Q, with a large recovery in 2Q that continues in 3Q.

Just like Goldman, JPM predicts that this sharp V-shaped swing in China activity “will spread globally, initially through reductions in exports to China (both tourism and goods) and supply chain disruptions.

Overall, JPM now sees the pace of global GDP growth slipping to just 1.3% in 1Q20—half of its forecast prior to the outbreak—before rebounding to 3.4% in 2Q. As a reminder, Goldman expects a 2% hit to global GDP, which however then reverse completely over the next two quarters, before stabilizing to trend growth by Q4.

As the forecast continues, “the impact would be largest in EM Asia, where 1Q growth (excluding China as well as India, which is largely unaffected) would be about 2%-pts lower relative to our pre-outbreak forecast path. Note the particularly large shock to Hong Kong in 1Q, as well as its more gradual recovery versus other economies in the region.”

One place where the JPM prediction may prove to be abnormally optimistic is its assumption that “due to less-direct exposures, the impact on growth for both the US and Euro area is much more modest” and as such the bank has trimmed 0.25%-pts from each in 1Q, which is then fully made up in 2Q. Incidentally Evercore applies a similar logic, cutting China’s Q1 GDP to 0%, but also asserting that this won’t impact US GDP. Good luck with that. Meanwhile, the impact in Latin America is largely felt by commodity exporters, namely Brazil, Chile, and Peru. With sluggish China imports, that drag lingers into 2Q before a rebound takes hold for these economies in the second half of 2020.

Needles to say, this forecast is blanketed in caveats and footnotes, and as Lupton writes, “it is worth emphasizing that the uncertainty about this revised outlook remains extremely high at this stage.”

JPM’s forecast assumes the production shutdowns start to lift beginning next week, and that activity in China posts a strong rebound in March, which is indeed possible if China has managed to slow down the spread of the epidemic as its official data suggest. On the other hand, there is rampant speculation that Beijing is purposefully undercounting the full extent of the disease, perhaps due to lack of more testing devices, and in hopes of minimizing social panic.

Which is why those who believe in a V-shaped recovery will be wise to keep an eye on when China’s cases start to decline, as “a more adverse scenario would result if the contagion does not peak until April and factories remain shuttered for at least another week, lengthening the disruption to production, transportation, and shipping.”

In that situation, JPMorgan expects GDP and IP to contract outright in 1Q, plunging to -3.9% and -11.6% q/q saar, respectively, a drop that could potentially trigger a global recession, with modest growth in 2Q and a full recovery delayed until 3Q.

To justify its optimistic “base case”, JPM notes that one extremely tentative bit of good news that leans against this outcome is the continued decline in the daily growth rate of new confirmed infections, which slowed to a 15% pace overnight—it had averaged more than twice that pace in the prior week. Here, too, one wonders just how credible Chinese data is in light of reports suggesting the true number of infections is north of 100,000.

And while even JPM admits that it would “need to see further and sustained improvement on this front to give us confidence that the risk of a lengthier outbreak has declined”, the market – at least until Friday – appears to have decided that this favorable outcome is now assured and that China will soon regain control of the pandemic, something which sounds rather optimistic for a nation that has put hundreds of millions of people on lockdown.

JPMorgan’s conclusion:

If we are right, the virus drag should be fading by early March and set the stage for a rebound. At the same time that we will look for evidence of this lift from news on the flu’s transmission and factory openings, we will also look for a signal that business output expectations were only modestly depressed by the February production declines. We look for China’s future output PMI to remain above 50 and the global ex. China index to remain above 60 this month.

We can only hope – for the sake of the world’s people – that JPMorgan’s cheerful forecast is correct. If not, expect a third, and far more dire downward revision, to China’s GDP in the coming days.

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

GERMANY

The populist party AfD is gaining strength and chaos ensued in Thuringia. Merkel and her globalists are in deep trouble in the upcoming election as many nations are turning nationalists and not globalist.  The problems in China will magnify this

(Tom Luongo)

Thuringia – Patient Zero For Germany’s Revolution?

Authored by Tom Luongo via Gold, Goats, ‘n Guns blog,

German politics is in turmoil. State elections last fall left Chancellor Angela Merkel weakened, forcing her Christian Democratic Union (CDU) to make an unwanted coalition in Brandenburg with the Social Democrats (SPD) and the Greens.

The surge in the former East German states of Merkel’s political nemesis, Alternative for Germany (AfD), complicates an already complicated web of tenuous alliances to allow Merkel’s CDU to remain in power.

 

That surge in AfD’s support reached crisis proportions recently in Thuringia. Last fall Die Linke (31.0%) and AfD (23.4%) took a majority in Thuringia. While both are committed euroskeptics, they are also oil and water.

Die Linke is a committed leftist party while AfD is a more populist center-right party, characterized by histrionic German and European media as the far-right bogeyman of Germany’s Nazi past.

Merkel’s CDU (21.0%) came in third.

For months since the election ended with no clear path to a majority government because the establishment parties refuse to work with AfD, the parties have wrangled to try and cobble together a coalition.

And after two noncommittal ballots the deadlock was broken by AfD backing the Free Democrat (FDP) candidate Thomas Kemmerlich. Chaos ensued.

Their plans were unexpectedly halted on Wednesday when the AfD sided with the CDU and pro-business Free Democratic Party (FDP) to narrowly outvote Ramelow’s candidacy and elect FDP’s Thomas Kemmerich instead.

The move instantaneously sent shockwaves across Germany, creating a rift between Thuringia’s CDU branch and its leadership in Berlin. CDU’s chief and Federal Defense Minister Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer accused her colleagues of breaking rank by violating the party’s usual policy of avoiding any cooperation with the anti-establishment and anti-migrant AfD.

AfD pulled support for their own candidate and backed Kemmerlich, freezing the Greens, who barely qualified for even one seat, out of the government.

The untenable situation in Thuringia finally blew up in Merkel’s face. Denying the existence of nearly a quarter of its electorate in coalition talks is ultimately slow-motion political suicide.

It is yet another example of the desperation of German political elites to hold onto power.

They did this successfully in Brandenburg but only by doing there what Merkel couldn’t do at the national level in 2017, agree to a deal with the SPD and Greens.

AfD is here to stay, especially in the former East German states. The left parties are fluid and Merkel keeps using the CDU’s nominal center-right status as a cudgel to strong arm her preferred results.

The more this happens, the harder opposition gets. And the result in Thuringia was local CDU members, in revolt against Merkel’s prohibition against working with AfD, defied her to stymie the Die Linke/SPD/Green minority coalition that was supposed to win.

In the end, why is Merkel so angry about this result, beyond the obvious issues within her own party? Why did she force Kemmerlich to dissolve the government and go for snap elections in Thuringia?

It has everything to do with the German upper house, the Bundesrat. I covered this back in November after the vote. Merkel has a de facto alliance with the Greens to ensure control over the Bundesrat and, by extension, the Bundestag.

As was pointed out to me by German political observers the game Merkel has been playing by working with the SPD in the Bundestag only works if she keeps the Greens in the Bundsrat happy.

But because of the nature of the Bundesrat, where state delegation must vote as a block, up until Thuringia the Greens held veto power over 37 out of 69 seats there and could stop all legislation cold.

But those four seats now will likely go to someone else and this defection by CDU party members in Thuringia threatens a constitutional crisis in Germany if AfD make it into the Bundesrat.

Adding the Greens to Brandenburg was meant to offset the potential loss in Thuringia. So that the current Bundesrat map looks like this with the Greens holding 41 seats plus potentially 4 more from Thuringia.

This lays bare the reality that Merkel has been using the Greens to push her EU agenda without looking like it’s her doing so. This gives her domestic political cover.

The Greens losing out of Thuringia bring them to 41 seats.

But here’s the real rub and no one in German media will report on it but it is happening. AfD has formally challenged the apportionment of seats in Hesse where the CDU and the Greens have a tenuous alliance and a majority of just one seat.

That challenge could, and likely will, bring down the government in Hesse. As the body overseeing this there isn’t a political body. It’s an administrative one. The laws are clear and once the case is decided upon Hesse’s five seats will be up in the air.

Ultimately, if/when that happens I expect the SPD will be added to the coalition and order restored from Merkel’s point of view. But since there’s going to be new elections in Thuringia the possibility exists that things deteriorate for Merkel there even faster.

That their only option was snap elections is deeply embarrassing for the establishment. It’s going to give wind to the minor parties while the SPD continues to rethink its coalition with a CDU that is losing control of its membership.

German politics is all about projecting consistency, from my understanding of things. Change is to be measured and gradual. But that comes from economic stability and prosperity. The rapid shifts in the German political landscape that has given rise to these events undermine that thesis.

Poor economic conditions in the eastern states is driving conservative Germans to AfD. Germany getting squeezed by Brexit and Trump’s hostility to Merkel doesn’t help matters. A Europe incapable of economic growth for German companies to export to is a third factor. And continued sanctions against Russia has stymied that market for nearly six years.

After nearly a decade of ruinous ECB policy and Merkel’s insistence on holding all challenges and changes in abeyance is coiling the spring for a political revolution against her soon.

What happens if AfD wins the majority in the new election? What happens if the Greens fail to hit 5% and not qualify for any seats? What happens if her CDU members in Thuringia make another deal with AfD?

These are questions, Angela Merkel doesn’t want to face but Germany needs to.

*  *  *

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END

UK/USA

Trump furious with Boris Johnson on its Huawei decision to implement non core parts to his 5 G Network

(zerohedge)

Trump Was “Apoplectic With Rage” During Call With Boris Johnson Over Huawei Decision

When Prime Minister Boris Johnson decided to defy the Pentagon’s warnings and approve Huawei’s bid to build “non-core” components of the UK’s 5G network, the White House quickly made its dissatisfaction known, as we reported at the time.

Johnson was walking a fine line between appeasing the US and China. But as one observer remarked at the time, “you can’t be half pregnant.” A report published Friday in the FT seems to have confirmed this sentiment by revealing that President Trump lashed out at Johnson, a leader whom he had one lavished with praise, in a phone call held shortly after the announcement.

During a phone call held last week shortly after Johnson’s decision was publicized, an aide said Trump was “apoplectic” with rage, and laid into Johnson using language that left many on the call completely dumbfounded.

A second official confirmed that the Trump-Johnson call was “very difficult.” British officials with knowledge of the exchange said they were taken aback by the force of the president’s language towards Mr Johnson. Mike Pence, US vice-president, said after the Huawei decision that the Trump administration had made its disappointment at the UK decision “very clear to them.” But the extent of Mr Trump’s anger was unknown until now. Downing Street, the US state department, the US National Security Council and the White House declined to comment on the call.

After the call, the White House released only a brief readout: “Today, President Donald J Trump spoke with Prime Minister Boris Johnson of the United Kingdom. The two leaders discussed critical regional and bilateral issues, including telecommunications security.”

 

Downing Street’s readout hinted at the tensions: “The prime minister underlined the importance of like-minded countries working together to diversify the market and break the dominance of a small number of companies.”

Privately, the British chafed at the US’s demands, particularly since the US didn’t have a superior product to offer to replace Huawei.

Sensing this, AG William Barr went so far as to suggest that the US buy stakes in Ericsson and Nokia, the two Scandinavia telecoms components giants, to allow the US to have something to offer its allies instead of just asking them to go without

 

Huawei’s cutting-edge telecoms equipment for their 5G rollouts.

Mr Barr said America and its allies should be “actively considering” proposals for “American ownership of a controlling stake” in the European companies, “either directly or through a consortium of private American and allied companies”. He added “it’s all very well to tell our friends and allies they shouldn’t install Huawei’s, but whose infrastructure are they going to install?”

The two sides left reporters with distinctly different impressions about the condition of their relationship. The US reportedly insisted that the White House spent considerable time and resources trying to convince Johnson to abandon Huawei. However, Downing Street said President Trump’s strident views on Huawei were barely known to the administration before the phone call. Though Washington approved some sales to Huawei last year, Trump apparently still believes the company is “very dangerous.”

As one academic who spoke with the FT for its story about the rift pointed out, the UK’s decision to buy some equipment from Huawei could compromise the ‘Five Eyes’ intelligence alliance between the US, UK, Canada, Australia and New Zealand. Though Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has apparently made some progress in repairing the relationship during a recent visit to the UK – “friends don’t always agree on everything” – he also insisted that the US would take steps to ensure the security of the alliance.

Has China succeeded in driving a wedge between President Trump and one of his most natural allies? It’s starting to look that way.

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

IRAQ/ENERGY

A good one; Iraq although rich in oil is poor in electricity output and natural gas. It gets these supplies from Iran.  Iraq has been receiving supplies through a waiver which runs out at the end of this month.

 

The USA is in a no lose situation dealing with this:  a must read..

(Watkins/OilPrice.com)

Iraq Is On The Brink Of An Energy Crisis

Authored by Simon Watkins via OilPrice.com,

As the deadline for the U.S. to renew its waiver on Iraq importing gas and electricity from Iran approaches later this month, the three key players in this ongoing geopolitical saga have been preparing for all possible outcomes. As always in the global hydrocarbons markets, particularly in the Middle East, nothing is what it seems on first sight, with each of the main countries involved looking at outcomes that go way beyond mere gas sales.

The positioning began in earnest last week with a virtue-signalling comment from the Trade Bank of Iraq’s chairman, Faisal al-Haimus, that the bank – the main vehicle through which Iraq pays for these Iranian imports – would stop processing payments if the U.S. does not renew the relevant waiver at this end of this month. This would affect the payments for the entire 1,400 megawatts (MW) of electricity and 28 million cubic metres (mcm) of gas from Iran that Iraq requires to keep its key infrastructure in power, for some of the time at least

 

In this context, peak summer power demand in Iraq perennially exceeds domestic generation capabilities, made worse by its capacity to cause major civilian unrest in the country. The relatively recent widespread protests across Iraq – including in the major oil hub of Basra – were widely seen as being prompted in part by chronic electricity outages. The situation also promises to become much worse as, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA), Iraq’s population is growing at a rate of over one million per year, with electricity demand set to double by 2030, reaching about 17.5 gigawatts (GW) average throughout the year.

Ahead of the waiver renewal point this month, then, Iraq has been playing both the U.S. and Iran, as part of the ongoing tightrope act in which it has been engaged since the fall of Saddam Hussein in 2003. On the one hand, a senior oil and gas industry figure who works closely with Iran’s Petroleum Ministry exclusively told OilPrice.com last week, Iraq has repeatedly stressed to the U.S. that it cannot effectively function – including at its oil fields – without Iranian gas and electricity supplies until a realistic alternative is up and running.

This is aimed, said the source, at extracting more investment from the U.S. both directly and indirectly, including expediting deals tentatively and firmly agreed with the U.S. before the attacks on U.S. bases in Iraq occurred. The key deal remains an integral part of Iraq’s longstanding rhetoric about reducing the epic squandering of its enormous gas natural resources through flaring. This deal, involving the signing of a memorandum of understanding with a U.S. consortium led by Honeywell, would reduce Iraq’s current level of gas flaring by nearly 20%.

Specifically, Honeywell, partnering with another U.S. heavyweight, Bechtel, and Iraq’s state-owned South Gas, would build the Ratawi gas hub. This, in its first stage would process up to 300 million standard cubic feet per day (scf/d) of ‘associated gas’ (generated as a by-product of crude oil production) at five southern Iraqi oil fields: Majnoon, Gharib al-Qurna, al-lhiss, al-Tubba, and al-Siba. “Moqtada al-Sadr [the effective leader of Iraq] knows that every time there is a hint that Iraq will continue with its historically close relationship with Iran, the U.S. comes in to offer the services of its companies at beneficial terms to Iraq,” the Iran source said.

In addition to this, Iraq has two natural hedge positions against the U.S. not extending its next waiver, and leaving Iraq supposedly without Iranian gas and electricity in the very short-term before U.S. investment and deals can actually put power on the ground in Iraq.

  • The first of these hedges is that Iraq will just keep the money that it already owes Iran for previous supplies. According to a comment last week from Hamid Hosseini, a spokesman for the Iranian Oil, Gas and Petrochemical Products Exporters’ Association, up to US$5 billion in payments from Iraq to Iran for past gas and electricity supplies is sitting in an escrow account at the Central Bank of Iraq, but Iran cannot touch it because of the U.S. sanctions. In fact, according to the Iran source spoken to by OilPrice.com last week, the figure is US$6.1 billion, which, if the U.S. does not extend the waiver later this month, Iraq will just keep.
  • The second of Iraq’s hedges against the U.S. not extending the waiver on these imports from Iran at the end of this month is just to keep importing them anyway. Iraq has a very long porous border with Iran and an even longer history of using it – and shared facilities – to circumvent oil and gas sanctions, and there is no reason to assume that this will suddenly cease.

The question then naturally arises as to why Iran would agree to continue to supply Iraq with gas and other commodities if it cannot draw out money owed to it from the Iraq escrow account.

 

The answer is twofold:

First, Iran is working in a number of areas on essentially a barter-based business methodology, according to the Iran source. “It offers oil and gas resources to China and Russia and others which, in turn, offer Iran items it needs, such as technology items, chemicals, agricultural sector goods, and finance facilities, for example, so there are ways in which Iraq could pay Iran in currency of one sort or another,” he said.

The second option for Iran, and an idea of the assassinated Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commander, Major General Qassem Soleimani, is that Iraq assigns leases and ownership to Iran through a wide range of IRGC-related entities to commercial real estate and businesses in the Shia-dominated areas of Iraq. This transfer of ownership on a limited scale has been taking place on an intermittent basis for a number of years, especially around Karbala, Najaf, and Nasiriyah, according to the source.

“It suits the Iranians well enough, as it is a way of cementing Iranian control across the Shia population of Iran, and it suits Iraq as well as it means it doesn’t have to part with any money, which is always a strain on the already strained budget, and it means that it can leave it to Iran to control the radical Shia elements in and around those regions,” he added.

Finally, the U.S. cannot lose either way. If it extends the waiver, it keeps the door open to Iran coming back to the table to renegotiate the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action nuclear deal whilst also keeping Iraq on side for future U.S. energy projects and keeping it from fully defecting to the Iran-Russia-China sphere of influence. If it does not extend the waiver then a relatively large non-Shia section of Iraq will keep the government in the state of flux that it has been since the fall of Hussein, which also benefits the U.S.

This strategy was previously known as the ‘Kissinger Doctrine’ of foreign policy – analysed in depth in my new book on the global oil market – in which the U.S. attempts to keep power in balance across a broad region through individual states fighting amongst each other, usually based on exploiting factional and or tribal and/or religious differences between groups.

END
YEMEN LEADER/AL RIMI

Trump is picking them off like flies: al Rimi leader of Al Qaeda in Yemen filled by a uSA drond strike

(zerohedge)

Trump Announces Leader Of Al-Qaeda In Yemen Killed By US Drone Strike

Thursday evening President Trump announced the death of al-Qaeda’s chief in Yemen by a US drone strike. The New York Times first reported last week the likely death of Qasim al-Rimi, the founder and leader of al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) in a US airstrike, which the president has now confirmed. Days ago Saudi media also began reporting his death.

“Under Rimi, AQAP committed unconscionable violence against civilians in Yemen and sought to conduct and inspire numerous attacks against the United States and our forces,” Trump said in a White House official statement. “His death further degrades AQAP and the global al-Qa’ida movement, and it brings us closer to eliminating the threats these groups pose to our national security.”

 

Qasim Al-Rimi

The successful counter-terror operation also reportedly killed an unspecified deputy of al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri. This other top al-Qaeda operative’s name was not immediately given.

 

The State Department had issued a $10 million reward for information leading to Rimi’s capture. Interestingly, he’s alleged to have directly threatened attack on President Trump.

According to the Rewards for Justice statement:

On February 5, 2017, al-Rimi released an audiotape in which he threatened U.S. President Donald Trump. In a May 7, 2017 video, he urged supporters living in Western countries to conduct “easy and simple” attacks and praised Omar Mateen, who killed 49 people in a June 2016 mass shooting at a nightclub in Orlando Florida.

US intelligence had also linked him to a 2008 attack on the US Embassy in Yemen, and to the 2009 “underwear bomber” plot to blow up a US-bound airliner.

The State Department’s brief bio information indicates Rimi was active in Sunni jihadist activities and leadership going back to the 1990’s:

Qasim al-Rimi was named emir of AQAP in June 2015, immediately after he swore allegiance to al-Qa’ida leader Ayman al-Zawahiri and called for renewed attacks against the United States. Al-Rimi trained terrorists at an al-Qa’ida camp in Afghanistan in the 1990’s, and subsequently returned to Yemen and became an AQAP military commander.

His death marks the third designated terrorist killed by the US in recent months, following IRGC Quds Force chief Qassem Soleimani and more significantly ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.

According to CNNRimi had long been at the top of Trump’s list of desired kills or captures: “Rimi was a target of a January 2017 raid on an al Qaeda compound in Yemen that led to the first US military combat death under the President, a senior US military official told CNN at the time.”

 

US Reaper drone file image, via Reuters.

Days after the raid Rimi had released an audio message calling Trump “the new fool of the White House received a painful slap across his face.”

But clearly it’s America’s Commander-in-Chief who had the last laugh.

6.Global Issues

A good one;  Scientist now warn you can contract the coronavirus can strike more than once

(Mac Slavo)

Scientists Warn: You Can Contract The Coronavirus More Than Once

Authored by Mac Slavo via SHTFplan.com,

They say what doesn’t kill you makes you stronger, however, that might not be the case when it comes to catching the coronavirus.  Scientists are now warning the public that you can actually “relapse” and get the virus more than one time.

While most of the patients who have contracted the coronavirus 2019-nCoV eventually make a full recovery, they don’t walk away from the encounter immunized against the disease, as one might expect after a viral infection. Rather, Business Insider reports, you can theoretically catch the coronavirus multiple times, creating an unusual challenge for health officials trying to contain the outbreak.

 

“For those patients who have been cured, there is a likelihood of a relapse,” Zhan Qingyuan, the director of pneumonia prevention and treatment at the China-Japan Friendship Hospital, said during a Friday press conference.

The underlying idea behind a vaccination — or even “chicken pox parties” — is that exposure to a virus will trigger the immune system to generate antibodies that will shield that person from that virus in the future. But according to Chinese health officials, the antibodies created after a 2019-nCoV infection aren’t always strong enough to keep patients from getting sick again. –Futurism

The coronavirus has already spread and become more deadly than the SARS outbreak of the early 2000s. And because antibodies from this virus are very weak, it’ll make containment incredibly difficult.

“The antibody will be generated,” said Zhan.

“However, in certain individuals, the antibody cannot last that long.”

The best way to fight this virus is to simply prevent contraction. Because health officials and scientists still don’t know exactly how this virus spreads, it’s best to wear a face mask if you can, especially in a place with a lot of people in close contact (like an airport or airplane) and take on good handwashing measures.

How To Stay Healthy During Flu Season And Prevent Coronavirus Infection

This virus also has a high likelihood of mutation, which means it could get even more deadly before it’s over.

END

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings FRIDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.0959 DOWN .0008 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /ALL RED

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 109.85 DOWN 0.110 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2939   DOWN   0.0001  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/

USA/CAN 1.3317 UP .0030 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  FRIDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL BY 22 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.0959 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 9.45 POINTS OR 0.33% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 78,43 POINTS OR 0.33%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0,42%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 89.43 POINTS OR 0.33%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 9.45 POINTS OR 0.33%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN. 36% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 45.61  POINTS OR 0.19%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1566.25

silver:$17.73-

Early FRIDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 1.61% !!! DOWN 3 IN POINTS from THURSDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 2.08 DOWN 3   IN BASIS POINTS from THURSDAY night.

USA dollar index early FRIDAY morning: 98.59 UP 9 CENT(S) from  THURSDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers FRIDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing FRIDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.32% DOWN 2 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.04%  DOWN 2   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.28%//DOWN 1 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD0.94 DOWN 2 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 66 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.39% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.33% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR FRIDAY

Closing currency crosses for FRIDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0953  DOWN     .2708 or 27 basis points

USA/Japan: 109.76 DOWN .199 OR YEN UP 20  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2907 DOWN .0024 POUND DOWN 24  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 19 basis points to 1.3086

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

The USA/Yuan  7.0024    ON SHORE  (DOWN)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  7.0061  (YUAN DOWN)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  6.0087 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.04%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 6 IN basis points from THURSDAY at 1.58 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.04 DOWN 7 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 98.64 UP 15  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for FRIDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 38.09  0.51%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 61.01 POINTS OR .45%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 8.43 POINTS 0.14%

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 0.30 POINTS or 0.00%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 12.03 POINTS OR 0.05%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 50.74 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 54.67 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE FALLS:    64.05  THE CROSS HIGHER BY 0.71 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE HIGHER BY 71 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.39 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  50.44//

 

 

BRENT :  54.52

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 1.59..down 6 basis pts…

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.05..down 6 basis pts..

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.177 ( UP 49   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:107.27 DOWN .667 (YEN UP 67 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 98.69 UP 19 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA: 1.2889 DOWN  41  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 6.0199…VERY DEADLY TO THEIR ECONOMY!!

 

 

the Russian rouble 64.12   DOWN 0.79 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( DOWN 79 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3299 DOWN 19 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  7.0024  (ONSHORE)/

 

 

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 7.0078 (OFFSHORE)

 

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.37%

 

The Dow closed DOWN 277.26 POINTS OR 0.94%

 

NASDAQ closed DOWN 51.64 POINTS OR 0.54%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  15.53 CLOSED UP .57

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 1.734%//libor dropping like a stone

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

Global Stocks Soar To Record Highs As Unprecedented China Liquidity Trumps Pandemic-Panic

Despite 2020’s first weekly slump in the global economic surprise index (cough Germany cough) and the spreading deadly pandemic crushing global supply chains…

Source: Bloomberg

The world’s stock markets exploded this week…

Source: Bloomberg

Thanks to an unprecedented flood of “all liquidity is fungible” cash from China

And that liquidity water-boarding, jedi-mind-tricked the world into believing that the worst is over…

It’s not, just ask Bonds!

Source: Bloomberg

China’s ChiNext (small-cap-tech dominated) exploded higher after the re-opening crash on Monday and while the rest of the major Chinese markets ended lower, they were all well off those opening lows…

Source: Bloomberg

All major European markets were higher – despite disastrous economic data…

Source: Bloomberg

US markets were all dramatically higher this week (even with today’s selloff)…

Nasdaq had its best week since Nov 2018, but breadth is notably divergent…

Source: Bloomberg

After 4 big days of short-squeezes, today saw the machines run out of ammo…

Source: Bloomberg

Even with the plunge of the last few days, TSLA was still up around 15% on the week – its 10th weekly rise in a row…

AAPL slid today as they extended their store closures across China…

But remains above $1 trillion market cap as the MAGA 4 soar…

Source: Bloomberg

Cyclicals rallied hard this week but were unable to erase all the virus losses…

Source: Bloomberg

Momentum had its fits down week since mid-December

Source: Bloomberg

While stocks pushed to new record highs, VIX refused to follow to cycle lows…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields extended yesterday’s drop by plunging more today. Rates did end higher on the week but 30Y only +4bps (after being up 17bps midweek)…

Source: Bloomberg

The 30Y Yield has tumbled in the last two days…

Source: Bloomberg

The yield curve flattened back to 2020 lows this week…

Source: Bloomberg

This week’s equity rally seemed to lift the market’s desire for more dovishness from The Fed…

Source: Bloomberg

The Dollar has surged the last 3 days (and 4 of the 5 days in the week) to its highest since early December…

Source: Bloomberg

Yuan ended weaker on the week, falling back above the key 7.00/USD level…

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos had a big week with Ethereum soaring over 20% to $220 (biggest week since May 2019)…

Source: Bloomberg

And Bitcoin is testing back towards $10,000…

Source: Bloomberg

Dollar strength did not help commodities this week with PMs lower and crude dropping in demand (and supply) concerns. Copper managed to hold on to gains…

Source: Bloomberg

WTI tested below $50 this week…

Source: Bloomberg

Perhaps most importantly, with Valentines Day just around the corner, the price of chocolate may be about to soar as Cocoa futures have surged about 15% in 2020 as a lack of rain in key production areas of West Africa, the world’s top supplier, is spurring concerns over yields.

Source: Bloomberg

So, finally, what happens next?

Source: Bloomberg

And is the great rotation (from Energy to Tech) over?

Energy producers have almost completed a 20-year round trip relative to technology companies within the S&P 500 Index. The ratio between their S&P 500 industry-group indexes fell this week to its lowest level since March 2000, when an Internet-driven bull market peaked.

Source: Bloomberg

end

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

Futures tumble after Japan finds another 42 virus cases on a quarantined ship

(zerohedge)

Futures, Yuan Tumble After Japan Finds Another 42 Virus Cases On Quarantine Cruise Ship

Just when you thought it was safe to buy the f**king record high melt-up, TBS News reports that Japanese authorities have found another 42 people on the Diamond Princess cruise ship anchored in Yokohama have tested positive for Coronavirus.

TBS NEWS

@tbs_news

【速報】横浜に停泊中のクルーズ船内に新たに41人の新型コロナ感染者 厚労省

View image on Twitter

Japan says 273 people on the cruise ship were tested and 61 were found positive, and the 41 new patients have been sent to hospitals in 5 separate prefectures.

Dow futures are down around 100 points on the headline…

And Yuan is weakening on the news…

With The Olympics only a few months away, this must be a full panic for Japanese authorities to ensure it does not escape that ship.

END

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/THIS MORNING FOMC

January Payrolls Soar By 225K, Smashing Expectations As Hourly Earnings Coming In Hot

For once the ADP report was not massively off.

With Wall Street expecting a 165K print in this morning payrolls report, and with ADP coming in at almost 300K, the whisper number was obviously well above the official consensus, and the BLS did not disappoint, because just as Trump hinted a few days ago with his “jobs, jobs, jobs” tweet, in January the US created a whopping 225K jobs, smashing expectations, and well above last month’s upward revised 142K print.

Looking back, the change in total nonfarm payroll employment for November was revised up by 5,000 from +256,000 to +261,000, and the change for December was revised up by 2,000 from +145,000 to +147,000. With these revisions, employment gains in November and December combined were 7,000 higher than previously reported. After revisions, job gains have averaged 211,000 over the last 3 months.

Curiously, the Establishment survey showed yet another month of strong gains in a stretch that has been unbroken since late 2010, even as the Household Survey indicated that the number of employed workers declined by 89,000, from 158.803 million to 158.714 million.

The unemployment rate nudged higher by 0.1%, rising to 3.6%, above the 3.5% expected, yet still just barely above 50 year lows. Of note, the unemployment rate for both hispanics and blacks also rose to the highest since mid-2019.

This happened as the number of people not in the labor force plunged by 729,000, to 94.896, even as the number of person who currently want a job rose to 4.904 million from 4.832 million in December.

The unemployment rate rose largely because as part of today’s broad data revisions, the labor force participation rate inched higher, and at 63.4% is now the highest it has been since 2013.

Most notable, however, for markets was the rebound in hourly earnings, which rebounded from last month’s upward revised 3.0%, hitting 3.1% as the average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged at 34.3 hours in January. Notably, after plunging in December to 3.2% from a decade high 3.8%, the average hourly earnings for production and nonsupervisory workers also staged a modest rebound, rising to 3.3% in January.

Looking at the breakdown by jobs, there were notable job gains occurred in construction, in health care, and in transportation and warehousing, while manufacturing was the biggest loser, with 12,000 jobs lost.

  • In January, construction employment rose by 44,000, with much of this gain attributed to warm weather. Most of the gain occurred in specialty trade contractors, with increases in both the residential (+18,000) and nonresidential (+17,000) components. Construction added an average of 12,000 jobs per month in 2019.
  • Health care added 36,000 jobs in January, with gains in ambulatory health care services (+23,000) and hospitals (+10,000). Health care has added 361,000 jobs over the past 12 months.
  • Employment in transportation and warehousing increased by 28,000 in January. Job gains occurred in couriers and messengers (+14,000) and in warehousing and storage (+6,000). Over the year, employment in transportation and warehousing has increased by 106,000.
  • Employment in leisure and hospitality continued to trend up in January (+36,000).
  • Employment continued on an upward trend in professional and business services in January (+21,000), increasing by 390,000 over the past 12 months.
  • Manufacturing employment changed little in January (-12,000) and has shown little movement, on net, over the past 12 months. Motor vehicles and parts lost 11,000 jobs over the month.
  • Employment in other major industries, including mining, wholesale trade, retail trade, information, financial activities, and government, changed little over the month.

Commenting on the report, Bloomberg’s Eliza Winger says “The labor market is roaring, providing an important pillar for the economy. The unemployment rate edged up, but Bloomberg Economics continues to expect it to fall to 3.3% by year-end and labor costs to intensify.”

So what does this number mean for markets? As a reminder, Fed chair Jerome Powell gives his semiannual monetary policy testimony next week, and today’s jobs report supplies him with some good news to talk about, or to take partial credit for. The Fed has signaled interest rates are on hold this year, and this report confirms that outlook (unless of course China releases the real data for the coronavirus pandemic).

AS BLoomberg notes, the headline number is a solid beat and shows the labor market was still quite strong, if only before whatever damage the coronavirus pandemic does. The gain in average hourly earnings is good news for American workers, and the rise in labor force participation suggests we still have a bit of labor market slack. All in all, Powell will likely be happy with this report, which was neither bad nor good enough to send stocks sharply higher.

end

FOMC revisions:

For many years I have been highlighting to you the ridiculousness of the B/D plug (Birth Death model). Generally it means that if you lose your job  (Death) you  immediately start a business and employ others (Birth)  The Bureau estimates the number of gains and it is always high.  Once a year they do a revision:  Today that revision is a monstrous 520,000 jobs.  Thus the USA is not growing to what the pundits believed

(zerohedge)

Payrolls Revisions Wipe Out 520,000 Job Gains Under Trump

As we pointed out overnight, the big story in today’s jobs report would not be the January payrolls increase, which as we observed earlier was impressive, surging by 225K, well above the 165K consensus forecast, but the historical revisions to Payrolls data, which would be reduced by as much as half a million jobs as a result of the BLS’ recalibration of its business birth/death adjustment.

Sure enough, the reason why the market is in a risk-off mood and why yields are tumbling again, is because as expected, the payrolls revisions did indeed wipe out as many as 520K jobs in 2018 (as of April 2019), and the delta in December was a sizable and negative 422K, with 152.383 million pre-revision jobs contrasted to the 151.961 million post-revision.

The chart below shows the change in monthly payrolls pre and post-benchmark revision, and there are two things to note here: i) the bulk of the downward revisions took place during 2018, which means that the Fed launched its tightening cycle and was hiking rates based on false payrolls informationeven as yields were sliding with the bond market sniffing out the underlying misreported payrolls weakness, and ii) the February 2019 payroll gain was revised to just 1,000 from 56,000… but it was still a positive 1,000, as a negative number would have broken the string of 112 consecutive positive monthly increase in payrolls.

The best way to visualize the substantial revision lower to payrolls is in the Y/Y jobs growth chart, which shows that instead of rising as much as 1.9% in late 2018 when the Fed was already set to reverse its monetary policy to dovish, jobs were in fact growing at a far slower pace annually; and after a tumultuous 2018 and 2019, the pre- and post-series have now converged to roughly 1.4% annual growth.

The biggest loser here is Trump, as the annual revisions took some of the shine off one of President Donald Trump’s bragging points, as Bloomberg put it, cutting 2018’s job gain to just 2.31 million from 2.68 million, while the increases in 2017 and 2019 were roughly unchanged at about 2.1 million, meaning that each year under Trump — while still strong — has been slightly slower than the 2.35 million increase in the final year of Barack Obama’s presidency.

ii)Market data/USA

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

USA/New Jersey// 9 am this morning

We now have another cruiseship  with problems as 12 quarantined passengers are locked in their cabins.

Ambulances and the CDC are on the scene

(zerohedge)

Royal Caribbean Ship With 12 Quarantined Passengers Docks In NJ; Ambulances, CDC On Scene

A Royal Caribbean cruise ship that has 12 passengers quarantined over fears of coronavirus has docked in Bayonne, New Jersey, this morning with ambulances on the scene.

The “Anthem of the Seas” arrived in New Jersey just hours ago, at about 6AM, in thick dense fog, according to ABC 6. Several ambulances were on standby at the scene.

The passengers in quarantine will all be tested by the CDC, who was also awaiting the arrival of the ship on the scene. The passengers of the ship are all Chinese nationals – many of whom started exhibiting symptoms while aboard the ship, which was coming back from the Bahamas.

Derick Waller

@wallerABC7

Royal Caribbean cruiseship docking now in Bayonne, NJ with roughly a dozen sick Chinese nationals on board. They will be tested for coronavirus.

Embedded video

The NY Post reported that some of the passengers “have pulmonary issues”. 

Royal Caribbean said in a statement:

“We are closely monitoring developments regarding coronavirus and have rigorous medical protocols in place onboard our ships. We continue to work in close consultation with the CDC, the WHO, and local health authorities to align with their guidance and ensure the health and wellbeing of our guests and crew.”

Robert Isaacson, whose 75 year old mother is on the ship, said that crew members have not alerted passengers to the sick people on board.

“We have been chatting throughout the cruise and she has not brought any mentions of the crew alerting the passengers of a potential situation involving sick passengers,” he said, referring to conversations with his mother.

This news follows last night’s news “Nightmare at Sea” news that 42 additional cases of coronavirus, including an infected passenger who got on the ship in Japan, had been discovered on the Diamond Princess cruise ship which is anchored in Yokohama, Japan.

TBS NEWS

@tbs_news

【速報】横浜に停泊中のクルーズ船内に新たに41人の新型コロナ感染者 厚労省

sView image on Twitter

Japan says 273 people on the cruise ship were tested and 61 were found positive, and the 41 new patients have been sent to hospitals in 5 separate prefectures.

Japanese PM Shinzo Abe said no foreigners on board the MS Westerdam, run by Holland America Liner, would be allowed to disembark in Japan. The ship is capable of carrying 3,000, but it’s unclear how many are on board. Passengers on the Westerdam say the ship has already been refused entry to the Philippines and Taiwan over the virus fears.

Stephen Hansen, one tourist onboard the ship, has express concerns that the ship could be quarantined for two weeks.

Hey, Stephen, maybe New Jersey will let you in. 

end

Ford President quits after reporting an embarrassing 1.7 billion dollar loss

(zerohedge)

Ford President Quits After Reporting Embarrassing $1.7 Billion Loss 

Just days after Ford reported a $1.7 billion operating loss during the fourth quarter, released 2020 guidance that failed to impress, and prompted a nearly double-digit drop in its shares in after-hours trade, the Detroit carmaker has announced a major executive shakeup on Friday.

WSJ reports that Ford President Joe Hinrichs is retiring, an ouster likely tied to the company’s poor performance, now that its shares are trading at less than $9 while Tesla trades at an almost unbelievable multiple.

Joe Hinrichs

Strategy Chief Jim Farley will take his place.

  • FORD PRESIDENT OF AUTOMOTIVE JOE HINRICHS TO RETIRE: DJ
  • FORD TO NAME STRATEGY CHIEF JIM FARLEY COO: DJ

Last year, Ford angered president Trump by laying off thousands of manufacturing employees as it ended production for all of its sedans in North America as it pivots to focusing on the trucks and SUVs that comprise its most popular models.

Ford shares ticked higher on the news, though the reaction was relatively muted.

Maybe he can get a job at Tesla?

 

iv) Swamp commentaries)

VINDMAN FIRED!!  What took them so long!

(zerohedge)

Vindman Fired: Anti-Trump Impeachment Witness Escorted Out Of The White House

Anti-Trump impeachment witness Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman has been fired and escorted out of the White House by security, according to his attorney.

Kaitlan Collins

@kaitlancollins

News — Lt. Col. Vindman was just escorted out of the White House by security and told his services were no longer needed.

Kaitlan Collins

@kaitlancollins

I’m told Vindman walked out with his brother, who is an attorney for the NSC. It’s unclear if he was also fired but that was the expectation.

Vindman, a Ukraine specialist who sat on the National Security Counsel who was accused of being coached by House Intel Committee Chairman Adam Schiff (D-CA), was present on a July 25 phone call between President Trump and Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelensky, when the US president asked that Ukraine investigate former VP Joe Biden and his son Hunter, as well as claims of pro-Clinton meddling in the 2016 US election.

He was also notably counseling Ukraine on how to counter President Trump’s foreign policy according to the New York Times, which led some to go as far as accuse him of being a double agent.

The now-former White House employee, who admitted to violating the chain of command when he reported his concerns over the call, had been rumored to be on the chopping block for much of Friday.

“He followed orders, he obeyed his oath, and he served his country… And for that, the most powerful man in the world – buoyed by the silent, the pliable, and the complicit – has decided to exact revenge,” said his attorney, David Pressman.

Peter Alexander

@PeterAlexander

LTC Vindman escorted from WH, per his lawyer David Pressman: “He followed orders, he obeyed his oath, and he served his country… And for that, the most powerful man in the world – buoyed by the silent, the pliable, and the complicit – has decided to exact revenge.”

View image on TwitterView image on Twitter

 

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

China to Halve Tariffs On $75 Bn of US Imports

The State Council Tariff Commission said the reductions would come in a month after Beijing and Washington signed a deal to dial down a long-running trade war that has hit the global economy…

    Levies of five and 10 percent on more than 1,700 items — imposed in September — will be cut from February 14, the same day Washington is expected to halve tariffs on $120 billion worth of Chinese goods.  Products affected include fresh seafood, poultry and soybeans as well as tungsten lamps for scientific and medical purposes, and some types of aircraft…

https://www.ibtimes.com/china-halve-tariffs-75-bn-us-imports-2916815

China cuts tariffs on $75 billion of US imports in trade truce

The reductions apply to tariffs imposed Sept. 1 as the two sides were ratcheting up their dispute over Beijing’s technology ambitions and trade surplus, the Ministry of Finance said. It said two groups of tariffs would be reduced by half, from 15% to 7.5% and from 10% to 5%…

https://nypost.com/2020/02/06/china-cuts-tariffs-on-75-billion-of-us-imports-in-trade-truce/

FBI says about 1,000 investigations open into attempted tech theft by China   https://reut.rs/385Jfvc

Even Democrat senators know that stocks are being juiced by the Fed via its repo scheme!

Democrats Write to Powell for Answers about Fed’s Repo Actions

The letter on Thursday comes ahead of Powell’s scheduled testimony before the Senate Banking Committee on Feb. 12. The senators, including committee ranking member Sherrod Brown of Ohio, posed a series of questions about why the Fed has undertaken repo operation on a scale not seen since the financial crisis… https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-06/democrats-write-to-powell-for-answers-about-fed-s-repo-actions

[GOP] Sen. Rick Scott to Chairman Powell: Take Action to Roll Back Growing Size of Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet – I am also concerned about the Federal Reserve’s ongoing purchases of U.S. Treasuries to finance U.S. federal deficits. These actions only serve to enable the astonishing and troubling growth of our nation’s deficit…

https://www.rickscott.senate.gov/sen-rick-scott-chairman-powell-take-action-roll-back-growing-size-federal-reserves-balance-sheet

Key witness told Team Mueller that Russia collusion evidence found in Ukraine was fabricated.

Gates’ account is backed by several Ukrainian officials who stated in interviews dating to 2018 that the ledger was of suspicious origins and could not be corroborated…His account also raises the possibility that someone fabricated the document in Ukraine in an effort to restart investigative efforts on Manafort’s consulting work or  to meddle in the U.S. presidential election…

 In December 2018, a Ukrainian court ruled that two of that country’s government officials — member of parliament Sergey Leschenko and Artem Sytnyk, the head of the National Anticorruption Bureau of Ukraine — illegally interfered in the 2016 U.S. election by publicizing the black ledger evidence

https://justthenews.com/key-witness-told-team-mueller-russia-collusion-evidence-found.html

 

@JohnBasham: [Muller prosecutor] Andrew Weissmann inadvertently admits the purpose of the Mueller investigation was “trying to get rid of” President @realDonaldTrump  & laying a perjury trap for him.  @TheDemocrats are still pissed the President didn’t fall for it!

https://twitter.com/JohnBasham/status/1225589954211913728

 

The scheme to get Trump isn’t solely due to his desire to investigate corrupt practices in the Ukraine.  The far worse situation could be the involvement of the Obama Administration in the February 2014 coup that removed a Russia-friendly president.  This induced Putin to invade eastern Ukraine and take Crimea.

 

Treasury Department sent information on Hunter Biden to expanding GOP Senate inquiry

The Treasury Department has complied with Republican senators’ requests for highly sensitive and closely held financial records about Hunter Biden and his associates and has turned over “‘evidence’ of questionable origin” to them, according to a leading Democrat on one of the committees conducting the investigation…   https://news.yahoo.com/treasury-department-sent-information-on-hunter-biden-to-expanding-gop-senate-inquiry-161846826.html

 

Iowa Caucus final: Buttigieg 26.2%, Sanders 26.1%, Warren 18%, Biden 15.8%, Klobuchar 12.3%

Sanders won the popular vote: 45,826 to 43,195; but there are reports of copious ‘irregularities’.

 

DNC Chairman @TomPerez: Enough is enough. In light of the problems that have emerged in the implementation of the delegate selection plan and in order to assure public confidence in the results, I am calling on the Iowa Democratic Party to immediately begin a recanvass.

 

CNN’s Dan Merica @merica: Perez took the step of calling for a recanvass specifically because of issues around how the Iowa Dem Party was allocating state delegate equivalents from satellite caucus sites, two sources tell CNN.  One source said the DNC wanted to get ahead of candidate recount calls.

 

Iowa Caucus Results Riddled With Errors and Inconsistencies – The mistakes do not appear intentional, but they raise questions about whether there will ever be a completely precise accounting.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/06/upshot/iowa-caucuses-errors-results.html

 

@LuluFriesdat: We found Rounding Errors in 30% of the precinct math worksheets that we examined from the Iowa Caucus. Each “rounding error” gave one extra delegate to a candidate, over 50% of the time the extra delegate went to @PeteButtigieghttps://smartelections.us/iowa-rounding-errors

 

@JoeConchaTV: What’s particularly telling is despite all the candidates on the ballot campaigning in Iowa for many months and all the cable news speculation over the final tally for a long time as well, only 170,000 people voted in a state of 3.2M. Context: 240,000 voted in the 2008 Caucuses.

end

Let us close out this tumultuous week with this great offering courtesy of Greg Hunter

Impeachment, Acquittal, SOTU & Iowa are All Dem Disasters

By Greg Hunter On February 7, 2020

It’s hard to imagine what a worse week for Democrats would look like after this past week. The impeachment came to an abrupt halt with a thud. President Trump was not only not removed from office, but he was acquitted on both constitutionally fraudulent impeachment counts. The House ran a totally unfair impeachment hoax that was brought by a CIA officer and concocted with the help of Democrat Congressman Adam Schiff’s office.

The annual State of the Union (SOTU) address by President Trump was a slam dunk on the Democrats. More than 75% of people who watched the SOTU speech said they enjoyed and agreed with it. I called it a dunk-fest, and Speaker Pelosi did not enjoy it in the least. That’s why she publicly tore it up after the SOTU speech on camera for all the world to see. Pelosi may have just as well ripped the Democrat party in half in a very childish and dumb move.

Democrats should have thanked their lucky stars that so much was going on in Washington D.C. because what went on in the Iowa Democrat primary was an unmitigated disaster. There was chaos, confusion and charges of rigging the caucus votes to take away a victory from Bernie Sanders—again. Now, DNC Chairman Tom Perez is telling Democrats to recanvas the entire state of Iowa to make sure the vote is correct. How do you spell disaster? D E M O C R A T !

Join Greg Hunter as he talks about these stories and more in the Weekly News Wrap-Up.

How do you spell disaster? D E M O C R A T !

Join Greg Hunter as he talks about these stories and more in the Weekly News Wrap-Up.

(To Donate to USAWatchdog.com Click Here)

 

Well that is all for today

I will see you Monday night.

 

 

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