GOLD:$1576.60 UP $8.00 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING

Silver:$17.66 UP 14 CENTS (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Closing access prices:

GOLD: 1576.20

SILVER: 17.65

COMEX DATA

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING:

we are coming very close to a commercial failure!!

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR FEB CONTRACT: 153 NOTICE(S) FOR 15,300 OZ (0.4758 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR: 7205 NOTICES FOR 720500 OZ (22.410 TONNES)

SILVER

FOR FEB

8 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 40,000 OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month: 233 for 1,165,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE : $ 10,157 DOWN 170

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $ 10,197 DOWN 134

Let us have a look at the data for today

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IN SILVER THE COMEX OI ROSE A HUGE SIZED 1938 CONTRACTS FROM 221,858 UP TO 223,796 DESPITE OUR 14 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX.

TODAY WE ARRIVED CLOSER TO AUGUST’S 2018 RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S. WE WERE NOTIFIED THAT WE HAD A HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:,

; FEB 0; MARCH: 3106 AND MAY: 0 AND JULY: 0 ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE 3106 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 3106 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 3106 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 3.085 MILLION OZ ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 14 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV: A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR JULY

10.025 MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030 MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

7.32 MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

2.630 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOV.

20.970 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN DEC

5.075 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JAN

1.175 MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN FEB

THURSDAY, AGAIN OUR CROOKS USED COPIOUS PAPER IN ORDER TO CONTAIN SILVER’S PRICE…AND THEY WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE 14 CENTS).. BUT, OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE SOME SILVER LONGS AS THE TOTAL GAIN IN OI ON BOTH EXCHANGES TOTALED A STRONG 5044 CONTRACTS. OR 25.22 MILLION OZ….. WE HAD NO LONG LIQUIDATION AND WE HAD NO BANKER SHORT COVERING

WE HAVE NOW COMMENCED IN SILVER THE ILLEGAL SPREADING OPERATION AND THAT EXPLAINS THE RISE IN COMEX OI DESPITE THE LOSS IN PRICE. FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS:

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW STOPPED IN GOLD AS THEY NOW BEGIN TO MORPH INTO SILVER AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW FRONT MONTH WILL BE MARCH.

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEW, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE SPREADERS AND THE CRIMINAL ELEMENT BEHIND IT:

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR GOLD..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR SILVER. THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEWCOMERS HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO SILVER AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX SILVER OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MARCH FOR SILVER:

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF FEB .BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (MAR), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF FEB:

10,317 CONTRACTS (FOR 10 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 10,317 CONTRACTS) OR 51.585 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1146 CONTRACTS OR 5.731 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER: SO FAR THIS MONTH OF FEB: 36.055 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 7.36% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)* JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2020 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S: 233,20 MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2020 EFP TOTALS SO FAR: 181.61 MILLION OZ

FEB 2020 EFP’S TOTAL SO FAR: …… 51.585 MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1938, DESPITE THE 14 CENT RISE IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /THURSDAY… THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A HUGE SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 3106 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER

TODAY WE GAINED A HUMONGOUS SIZED SIZED: 5044 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: (DESPITE THE LOSS IN PRICE)

i.e 3106 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH INCREASE OF 1938 OI COMEX CONTRACTS.AND ALL OF THIS HUGE DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 14 CENT GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER/ AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $17.66 // THURSDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY!!

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.119 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 160% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FEB DELIVERY MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 8 NOTICE(S) FOR 40,000 OZ OF SILVER.

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018. AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.70

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018 (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ ) FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT: A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ JANUARY AT 5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019: 2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/ APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY: 18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 10.025 MILLION OZ/ SEPT 43.030 MILLION OZ//OCT: 7.665 MILLION OZ// NOV: 2.630 MILLION OZ//DEC: 20.970 MILLION OZ; JAN: 5.075 MILLION OZ.//FEB 1.175 MILLION OZ//
THE RECORD WAS SET IN AUGUST 22/2018: 244,196 CONTRACTS, WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78//.
HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/ AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND. TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

GOLD

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 1552 CONTRACTS TO 656,472 AND MOVING FURTHER FROM OUR NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE SMALL GAIN IN COMEX OI OCCURRED WITH OUR GAIN OF $8.00 IN PRICING /// COMEX GOLD TRADING// THURSDAY// WE PROBABLY HAD SOME BANKER SHORT COVERING AND NO LONG LIQUIDATION. HOWEVER WITH THE STRONG ISSUANCE OF EFP’S THEY BASICALLY COULD NOT FLEECE LONGS FROM THE GOLD ARENA (A GAIN IN OI ON THE TWO EXCHANGES)

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A GOOD SIZED 4624 CONTRACTS:

CONTRACTS, FEB> 0 CONTRACTS; MARCH 00 APRIL: 4624; JUNE. 0 AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO//TOTAL: 4624. The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 656,472,. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S. THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY. THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A GOOD SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 3498 CONTRACTS: 1552 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 4624 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN OF 3072 CONTRACTS OR 307,200 OZ OR 9.55 TONNES. WEDNESDAY, WE HAD A SMALL GAIN OF $1.80 IN GOLD TRADING……

AND WITH THAT GAIN IN PRICE, WE HAD A GOOD GAIN IN GOLD TONNAGE OF 9.555 TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS/OFFICIAL SECTOR WERE SUPPLYING INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER WITH RECKLESS ABANDON. THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE (GAIN $8.00). AND IT SEEMS THAT THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE GOLD LONGS FROM THE GOLD ARENA FAILED AS WE HAD A GOOD INCREASE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (4624) ACCOMPANYING THE SMALL LOSS IN COMEX OI.(1552): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES: 3498 CONTRACTS

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF FEB : 82,264 CONTRACTS OR 8,226,400 oz OR 255.87 TONNES (10 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 9140 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 10 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES: 255.87 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 255.87/3550 x 100% TONNES =7.20% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL /GOLD HAS EXPLODED THIS MONTH.

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE: 826.06 TONNES

JANUARY 2220 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE; SO FAR: 570.19 TONNES

FEB 2020 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE SO FAR: 255.87 TONNES

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.

Result: A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 1552 DESPITE THE PRICING GAIN THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK THURSDAY($8.00)) //.WE ALSO HAD A GOOD SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 4624 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED. THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX. I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT TH GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 4624 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE HAD A GOOD SIZED GAIN OF 3072 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

4624 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 1126 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 9.555 TONNES). ..AND THIS INCREASE OF DEMAND OCCURRED WITH THE GAIN IN PRICE OF $8.000 WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY’S TRADING/// AT THE COMEX.

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

WITH GOLD UP $8.00 TODAY

NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD

FEB 13/2020/Inventory rests tonight at 622,23 tonnes

SLV/

WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY

NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV

FEB 13/INVENTORY RESTS AT 364.179 MILLION OZ.

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD. IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

end

OUTLINE OF TOPICS TONIGHT

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest in SILVER ROSE BY A HUGE SIZED 1938 CONTRACTS from 221,858 UP TO 223,796 AND CLOSER TO OUR NEW COMEX RECORD. THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 2 3/4 YEARS AGO. THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

EFP ISSUANCE 617

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

FOR FEB. 0; FOR MAR 3106: AND MAY: 0; JULY: 0 CONTRACTS AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 3106 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE OI GAINAT THE COMEX OF 1938 CONTRACTS TO THE 3106 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S, WE OBTAIN A HUGE GAIN OF 5044 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAINON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 25.22 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST.. A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER., 7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER. 21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY, 27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL 18.765 MILLION OZ FOR MAY NOW 2.660 MILLION OZ FOR JUNE WITH JULY AT 22.605 MILLION OZ AUGUST AT 10.025 MILLION OZ// SEPT: 43.030 MILLION OZ///OCT: 7.32 MILLION OZ//NOV 2.63 MILLION OZ//DEC: 20.970 MILLION OZ//JAN: 5.075 MILLION OZ//FEB: 1.75 MILLION OZ//

RESULT: A HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE 14 CENT RISE IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// THURSDAY. WE ALSO HAD A HUGE SIZED 3106 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

(report Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)THURSDAY MORNING/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT:

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 20.83 POINTS OR 0.71% //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 93.66 POINTS OR 0.34% /The Nikkei closed DOWN 33.48 POINTS OR 0.14%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .27%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN at 6.9844 /Oil UP TO 51.10 dollars per barrel for WTI and 55.47 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED// ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 6.9844 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.9871 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED/COVID 19 : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP RAISED RATES TO 25%

3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

3b) REPORT ON JAPAN

JAPAN/COVID 19 UPDATE

We now have a big update on Covid 19; Japan records its first coronavirus death. China gives a massive increase in cases something we already new. England has a new case where a traveler from Wuhan arrived in London with a planeload of people

(zerohedge)

3C CHINA

i)CHINA/COVID 19

China reports a huge jump in jew Covid 19 cases and deaths//oil and stocks tumble/gold rises

(zerohedge)

ii)COVID 19/AUTO SALES INSIDE CHINA

This is how the Covid 19 will decimate Chinese auto cales

(zerohedge)

iii)COVID 19/CHINA

Not good: Suddenly China is under militarization of the P4 Wuhan labs as they are now beginning to question whether the Covid 19 was accidently realized and it was under study as a bioweapon

(zerohedge)

iv)HONG KONG/Business must be good in Hong Kong. Trouble for HSBC..Mall owner cuts rents up to 50%

(zerohedge)

v and vi)

Bill Blain’s and Michael Every’s take on the Covid 19

(Bill Blain/Michael Every)

vii)FOXCONN/CHINA/APPLE/COVID 19

Foxconn denies the Reuters report that its factories are now set to restart in China. They state that there is no timetable for this restart.

(zerohedge)

viii)CHINA/COVID 19 UPDATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON

China has ground to a halt as we have predicted: indicators confirm worst case scenario

(zerohedge)

ix)CHINA/COVID 19/WHO ADVISOR

This ought to scare everyone: a WHO advisor says that if they do not get this pandemic under control it could infect 60% of the global population or 5 billion people

(zerohedge)

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)UK/CHANCELLOR JAVID SACKED

Johnson sacks Chancellor Javid in his latest cabinet reshuffle

(zerohedge)

ii)GERMANY/USA/HUAWEI

Germany seems ready to follow the uK with respect to use of Huawei in the implementation of their 5 G network. Trump is ready to stop all sales of parts of Huawei. They are weighing a crackdown on Germany as well and they may be sanctioned..

(zerohedge)

7. OIL ISSUES

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

Jan reports that Reuters was wrong last year in their claim that China blocked gold imports last year

(Jan Nieuwenhuijs/GATA)

10. important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

i)Inflation i.e. consumer price inflation is much hotter than expected..we also have goods deflation

(zerohedge)

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

i)This lack of liquidity is getting worse: The Fed injects another 79 billion dollars into the Term repo pool; the most oversubscribed since the repo crisis began in Sept

(zerohedge)

ii)This should be fun for our bankers: The Fed next week begins to taper its overnight and term repos by 20 billion and 10 billion dollars respectively. March will still see a positive flow into the Fed. The problem will occur past April as these guys continue to be hooked on this money

(zerohedge)

iii)USA/CHINA/HUAWEI

USA continues its crackdown on Huawei as they add racketeering conspiracy charges against the company.

(zerohedge)

iv)Subprime auto loans explode coupled with serious delinquencies

(Wolf Richter)

iv) Swamp commentaries)

i)Biden donors panic after the former Vice president is beaten badly in New Hampshire

(zerohedge)

ii)Are these guys for real: all of that FBI misconduct does not count according to this district attorney: asks the court to ignore the Flynn bid to toss the case. It will never work

(zerohedge)

iii)I have now seen everything: the lead juror in the Roger Stone case was a former Democrat political candidate and she despites Trum p. She lied on the questionnaire. This case should be thrown out..

(zerohedge)

iv)Bill Barr blasts Trump for his Roger Stone tweets saying it it making it impossible for him to do his job

(zerohedge)

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

LET US BEGIN:

Let us head over to the comex:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY SMALL SIZED 1552 CONTRACTS TO 656,796 MOVING FURTHER FROM OUR RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541 OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020). AND THIS LOSS IN OI WAS SET WITH A SMALL GAIN OF $1.80 IN GOLD PRICING //WEDNESDAY’S COMEX TRADING//). HOWEVER, WITH THE STRONG EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAD ANOTHER FAILED ATTEMPT AT BANKER SHORT COVERING ……NOBODY LEFT THE GOLD ARENA WEDNESDAY.

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB.. THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A ,GOOD SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 4624 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

FEB: 0; MARCH 00 AND APRIL: 4624, JUNE : 0 AND ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 4624 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST 48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A GOOD SIZED 3072 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 4624 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE LOST A SMALL SIZED 1552 COMEX CONTRACTS. THE BANKERS PROVIDED THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER TO WHICH OUR LONGS DUTIFULLY ACCEPTED. WE HAD NO BANKER SHORT COVERING, AS LONGS JUST MORPHED OVER TO LONDON BASED FORWARDS TO RECEIVE THEIR FIAT BONUS AND COLLECT THEIR MONEY ON THEIR CIRCULAR FORWARDS EVERY TIME THEY PASS GO (EVERY 13 DAYS)

THE BANKERS WERE SOMEWHAT UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE //// (IT ROSE BY $1.80). AND THEY WERE MOST DEFINITELY UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING ANY LONGS, AS THE TOTAL ON THE TWO EXCHANGES WAS A GOOD SIZED 3072 CONTRACTS ….(10.88 TONNES)

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES :: 3072 CONTRACTS OR 307,200 OZ OR 9.555 TONNES.

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT COMMODITY FUTURES OPEN INTEREST SHOULD APPROXIMATE 3% OF TOTAL PRODUCTION. IN GOLD THE WORLD PRODUCES AROUND 3500 TONNES PER YEAR BUT ONLY 2200 TONNES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE WEST (THUS EXCLUDING RUSSIA, CHINA ETC..WHO KEEP 100% OF THEIR PRODUCTION)

THUS IN GOLD WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING: 656,472 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS X 100 OZ PER CONTRACT = 65.64 MILLION OZ/32,150 OZ PER TONNE = 2,042 TONNES

THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST REPRESENTS 2,042/2200 OR 92.87% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF GOLD.

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And now for the wild silver comex results

Total COMEX silver OI ROSE BY A HUGE SIZED 1938 CONTRACTS FROM 221,858 UP TO 223,799 (AND CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018 (244,196). THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND OUR STRONG OI COMEX GAIN OCCURRED WITH OUR SMALL 10 CENT DECREASE IN PRICING/WEDNESDAY.

Let us head over to the comex:

Gold	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers* Inventory in oz*	nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer* Inventory in oz*	25,673.282 HSBCoz
Deposits to the Dealer* Inventory in oz*	nil oz
Deposits to the Customer* Inventory, in oz*	nil
No of oz served (contracts) today	153 notice(s) 15300 OZ (0.4758 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)	723 contracts (72300 oz) 2.2489 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month	7205 notices 720,500 OZ 22.410 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers* inventory this month*	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer* inventory this month*	xxx oz

we had 0 dealer entry:

We had 0 kilobar entries

I ) Out of HSBC: 25,673.282 oz

We had 109 notices filed today for 10,900 oz

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the FEB /2020. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (7205) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of FEB. (876 contracts) minus the number of notices served upon today (153 x 100 oz per contract) equals 792,800 OZ OR 24.659 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this active month of FEB

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the FEB/2020 contract month:

No of notices served (7205 x 100 oz) + (876)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (539 x 100 oz )which equals 792,800 oz standing OR 24.659 in this active delivery month of FEB. which is a still a great opening for gold // amount standing.

We GAINED 7 contracts or 700 oz REFUSED TO LEAVE USA shores to visit the Queen in London. They REFUSED TO ACCEPT A London based gold forwards as well as NEGATING a fiat bonus for their efforts.

176,211.457 oz NOW PLEDGED JAN 21.2020/HSBC 5.4807 TONNES

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES…. WE HAVE ONLY 38.458 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS.

HERE IS WHAT STOOD DURING THESE PAST 7 MONTHS: AUGUST 27.153 TONNES

SEPT: 5.4525 TONNES

OCT………………………………………………………………………….. 37.99 TONNES

NOV…… 5.3841 tonnes

DEC…………………………. 45.912 TONNES

JAN…………………… 8.448 TONNES

FEB…………………………………………….. 24.659 tonnes

total: 154.998 tonnes

ACCORDING TO COMEX RULES:

IF WE INCLUDE THE PAST 7 MONTHS OF SETTLEMENTS WE HAVE 23.7447 TONNES SETTLED (includes the 1.4847 tonnes of today)

IF WE ADD THE 7 DELIVERY MONTHS: 154.998 tonnes

Thus:

154.998 tonnes of delivery –

23.7447 TONNES DEEMED SETTLEMENT

=131.2533 TONNES STANDING FOR METAL AGAINST 38.458 TONNES OF REGISTERED OR FOR SALE COMEX GOLD! THIS IS WHY GOLD IS SCARCE AT THE COMEX.

Silver	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers* Inventory*	NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory	1,289,438.911 oz CNT Loomis Brinks
Deposits to the Dealer* Inventory*	nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory	1,096,770.877 oz CNT HSBC
No of oz served today (contracts)	8 CONTRACT(S) (40,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)	2 contracts NIL oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)	233 contracts 1,165,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers* inventory this month*	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer* inventory this month*

i) Into CNT: 600,009.517 oz

ii) Into HSBC: 496,761.360 oz

i Out of CNT: 603,204.400 oz was adjusted out of the customer and this lands into the dealer account of CNT

total dealer silver: 80.113 million

total dealer + customer silver: 321.350 million oz

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The total number of notices filed today for the FEB 2019. contract month is represented by 8 contract(s) FOR 40,000 oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in FEB, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 233 x 5,000 oz = 1,165,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of FEB. (10) and the number of notices served upon today 8 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the FEB/2019 contract month: 233 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of Feb (10)- number of notices served upon today (8) x 5000 oz equals 1,175,000 oz of silver standing for the Feb contract month.

We gained 10 contracts or an additional 50,000 oz will stand at the comex as these guys refused to morph into London based forwards.

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN: THE COMEX IS UNDER ASSAULT FOR BOTH PHYSICAL GOLD AND SILVER WITH SILVER IN THE LEAD BY FAR. DESPITE MASSIVE RAIDS, LONGS CONTINUE WITH THEIR HUNT AT THE COMEX FOR PHYSICAL METAL.. IT WILL NOT BE LONG BEFORE WE WITNESS A COMMERCIAL FAILURE..STAY TUNED..WE WITNESSED CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING IN SILVER TODAY AND AN ATTEMPTED BANKER SHORT COVERING IN GOLD WITH ZERO SUCCESS.

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME: 83,420 CONTRACTS //

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 97,752 CONTRACTS..

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 97,752 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 488 million OZ 69.8% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..makes sense!!

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

FEB 13/WITH GOLD UP $8.00 TODAY:NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 922.23 TONNES

FEB 12/WITH GOLD UP $1.80 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 6.15 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 922.23 TONNES

FEB 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.30 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 916.08 TONNES

FEB 10/WITH GOLD UP $6.10 TODAY:A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.17 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 916.08 TONNES

FEB 7/WITH GOLD UP $3.20 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS THIS WEEKEND AT; 914.91 TONNES

FEB 6/WITH GOLD UP $8.80: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.33 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.91 TONNES

FEB 4//WITH GOLD DOWN $26.10: A VERY STRANGE PHENOMENA: A MONSTROUS DEPOSIT OF 9.38 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.58 TONNES

FEB 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.40 TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE: A TINY WITHDRAWAL OF .29 TONNES OF GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 903.21 TONNES( TO PAY FOR FEES LIKE STORAGE INSURANCE ETC)

JAN 31/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.95 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 903.50 TONNES

JAN 30/WITH GOLD UP $13.05 TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 4.09 TONNES INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 903.50 TONES

JAN 29/WITH GOLD UP 0.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 899.41 TONNES

JAN 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.70 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 899.41 TONNES

JAN 27//WITH GOLD UP $6.15 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 900.58 TONNES

JAN 24//WITH GOLD UP $6.65 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.76 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 900.58 TONNES

JAN 23/WITH GOLD UP $8.90 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 898.82 TONNES

JAN 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MAMMOTH 19.33 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD ADDED//INVENTORY RESTS AT 898.82 TONES

JAN 21/2010//WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 879.49 TONNES

JAN 17/WITH GOLD UP $9.60 TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: ANOTHER PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.17 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 879.49

JAN 16//WITH GOLD DOWN $3.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.80 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD./INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.32

JAN 15/WITH GOLD UP $9.55 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.52 TONNES

JAN 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.52 TONNES

JAN 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.75 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 7.6 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WAS USED IN THE RAID TODAY////INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.52 TONNES

JAN 10/WITH GOLD UP $5.80 TODAY:NA HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 4.69 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.12 TONNES

JAN 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.81 TONNES

JAN 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.10 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 9.37 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.81 TONNES

JAN 7/WITH GOLD UP $7.00 A GOOD INVENTORY PAPER DEPOSIT OF 0.88 TONNES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 896.18 TONNES

JAN 6/WITH GOLD UP #15.40 NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 895.30 TONNES

JAN 3/WITH GOLD UP $24.60: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.05 TONES INTO THE GLD../INVENTORY RESTS AT 895.30

JAN 2/2020//WITH GOLD UP $5.20: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 893.25

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

FEB 13/2019/Inventory rests tonight at 922.23 tonnes

*IN LAST 761 TRADING DAYS: 15.23 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD

*LAST 661 TRADING DAYS: A NET 151.84. TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO THE GLD INVENTORY.

end

Now the SLV Inventory/

FEB 13/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 364.179 MILLION OZ/

FEB 12//WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 364.179 MILLION OZ/

FEB 11/ WITH SILVER DOWN 19 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.166 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 364.179 MILLION OZ//

FEB 10/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF //INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.013 MILLION OZ//

FEB 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 701,000//INVENTORY RESTS THIS WEEKEND AT 363.013 MILLION OZ//

FEB 6//WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY:A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 154,000 OZ AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 362.312 MILLION OZ// AND GENERALLY THIS IS TO PAY FOR FEES LIKE INSURANCE/STORAGE

FEB 4//WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY//SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 362.466 MILLION OZ//

FEB 3/WITH SILVER DOWN 30 CENTS TODAY; A SMALL DEPOSIT OF 560,000 OZ INTO SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 362.466 MILLION OZ/

JAN 31/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A WITHDRAWAL OF 840,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 361/906 MILLION OZ//

JAN 30/WITH SILVER UP 47 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.027 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 362.746 MILLION OZ

JAN 29/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.587 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.719 MILLION OZ//

JAN 28//WITH SILVER DOWN 59 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 360.132 MILLION OZ

JAN 27//WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 327,000 OZ INTO THE SLV..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 359.805 MILLION OZ//

JAN 24//WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE PAPER DEPOSIT OF 5.975 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 359.805 MILLION OZ//

JAN 23/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 353.830 MILLION OZ..

JAN 22/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.027 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 353.830 OZ

JAN 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 354.437 MILLION OZ//

JAN 17/WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 420,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 354.437 MILLION OZ.

JAN 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: A CONSIDERABLE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 840,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 354,857 MILLION OZ//

JAN 15/WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 355.697 MILLION OZ//

JAN 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 355.697 MILLION OZ//

JAN 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.261 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 355.697 MILLION OZ//

JAN 10/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 356.958 MILLION OZ//

JAN 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 3.268 MILLION OZ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 356.958 MILLION OZ///

JAN 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 360.226 MILLION OZ//

JAN 7.//WITH SILVER UP 23 CENTS TODAY: ANOTHER MASSIVE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.214 MILLION OZ IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 360.226 MILLION OZ..

JAN 6/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.440 MILLION OZ///

JAN 3/2020//WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY: ANOTHER HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.176 MILLION OZ IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.440 MILLION OZ///

SINCE DEC 23 WE HAVE HAD A 94 CENT GAIN CORRESPONDING TO A 2.39 MILLION OZ OF PAPER WITHDRAWALS..AN ABSOLUTE FRAUD!

JAN 2/2020/WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.214 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV INVENTORY: INVENTORY RESTS AT 362.616 MILLION OZ

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 1.68/ and libor 6 month duration 1,73

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: – .05

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 1.79%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 1.81

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE = -.02

end

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

Bank of England: Gold Is a Rare, Durable “Store Of Value” – BBC News

13, February

◆ In a rare look inside Bank of England’s gold bullion vault, the BBC is shown how £194 billion worth of gold bars are stored

◆ They hardly ever let anyone in to film, but the BBC’s Frank Gardner has been given access to the Bank of England’s gold vault to view some of the 400,000 gold bars worth nearly £200 billion

◆ Victoria Cleland, Executive Director and the 32nd chief cashier of the Bank of England points out how gold is valuable because it is rare, “it’s in limited supply, you can’t keep making it”

◆ The BBC notes at the end of the video that gold has never been robbed from the Bank of England’s since it was established in 1694 … “yet”… which may be concerning if you are a sovereign nation storing national gold reserves in the Bank of England

◆ “People want gold, so it creates a market in itself, it doesn’t change value as much, for example, as currency …”

◆ It is “durable”, unlike chocolate (or pounds, euros and dollars), is “globally recognised” and a “store of value”

Access BBC video here

Exclusive Gold Offer – For Retail, Pension and HNW Investors

Given increasing bank and currency risks, it is prudent for UK residents to own gold stored in secure vaults in the UK. To celebrate our appointment as a Royal Mint Approved Distributor, we are offering CGT Free Gold Britannias and Gold Sovereigns (newly minted 2020 coins) at record low premiums for all lump sum and pension investments worth more than £10,000, €12,000 or $14,000. We are also giving 12 months of Secure Storage free of charge.

Key benefits and information here

NEWS and COMMENTARY

Gold gives up earlier loss to finish higher after comments from the Federal Reserve’s Powell

Gold subdued as abating coronavirus fears whet risk appetite

Wall Street reaches record highs on waning coronavirus fears

US deficit surges 25% in fiscal 2020 and is up $1.1 trillion over the past year

Powell says Fed will aggressively use QE to fight next recession

Oil rises over 3% as demand worries ease amid fewer new coronavirus cases

GOLD PRICES (USD, GBP & EUR – AM/ PM LBMA Fix)

12-Feb-20 1566.75 1563.70, 1206.55 1206.55 & 1434.83 1434.54
11-Feb-20 1567.70 1570.50, 1212.77 1211.33 & 1436.01 1438.26
10-Feb-20 1574.05 1573.20, 1219.26 1215.93 & 1437.11 1439.64
07-Feb-20 1568.30 1572.65, 1212.45 1214.56 & 1432.33 1433.63
06-Feb-20 1564.75 1563.30, 1205.95 1206.71 & 1421.89 1422.45
05-Feb-20 1552.20 1553.30, 1189.30 1198.22 & 1407.53 1411.79
04-Feb-20 1571.20 1558.35, 1207.62 1196.66 & 1421.62 1411.09
03-Feb-20 1578.85 1574.75, 1207.98 1209.41 & 1426.65 1425.46

Watch Podcast Here

SIGN UP FOR OUR AWARD WINNING MARKET UPDATES HERE

Mark O’Byrne

Executive Director

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

Jan reports that Reuters was wrong last year in their claim that China blocked gold imports last year

(Jan Nieuwenhuijs/GATA)

Jan Nieuwenhuijs: Reuters was wrong to claim China blocked gold imports last year

Submitted by cpowell on Wed, 2020-02-12 17:55. Section: Daily Dispatches

By Jan Nieuwenhuijs
Voima Gold, Helsinki, Finland
Wednesday, February 12, 2020

In August 2019 an article by Reuters stating that the Chinese central bank was firmly cutting off gold supply on the mainland caused a great stir in the gold community.

Unfortunately, many people accepted the story, although it was highly misleading. In this article we will analyze Reuters’ claims and eliminate any confusion of what happened in the Chinese gold market.

…

In my previous post on Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) premiums, we saw that in 2017 the Chinese central bank implemented a policy of raising a barrier cost at roughly 0.5% on gold imported into the Chinese domestic market. By comparing premiums on gold traded in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone vs. gold traded in the Chinese domestic market, it appeared that the People’s Bank of China generates an artificial premium.

Using a similar approach allows us to analyze if the bank obstructed gold imports in 2019. In my view it was very little. Certainly not 300 to 500 tonnes, which was the amount reported by Reuters on August 14. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.voimagold.com/insight/debunking-reuters-story-pboc-blocked-3…

* * *

Toast to a free gold market
with great GATA-label wine

Wine carrying the label of the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee, cases of which were awarded to three lucky donors in GATA’s recent fundraising campaign, are now available for purchase by the case from Fay J Winery LLC in Texarkana, Texas. Each case has 12 bottles and the cost is $240, which includes shipping via Federal Express.

Here’s what the bottles look like:

http://www.gata.org/files/GATA-4-wine-bottles.jpg

Buyers can compose their case by choosing as many as four varietals from the list here:

http://www.gata.org/files/FayJWineryVarietals.jpg

GATA will receive a commission on each case of GATA-label wine sold. So if you like wine and buy it anyway, why not buy it in a way that supports our work to achieve free and transparent markets in the monetary metals?

To order a case of GATA-label wine, please e-mail Fay J Winery at bagman1236@aol.com.

* * *

Support GATA by purchasing
Stuart Englert’s “Rigged”

“Rigged” is a concise explanation of government’s currency market rigging policy and extensively credits GATA’s work exposing it. Ten percent of sales proceeds are contributed to GATA. Buy a copy for $14.99 through Amazon —

https://www.amazon.com/Rigged-Exposing-Largest-Financial-History/dp/1651…

— or for an additional $3 and a penny buy an autographed copy from Englert himself by contacting him at srenglert@comcast.net.

* * *

Join GATA here:

Mining Investment Asia
InterContinental Hotel, Singapore
Tuesday-Thursday, March 17-19, 2020
https://www.mininginvestmentasia.com/

Mines and Money Asia
Conrad Hotel, Hong Kong
Tuesday-Wednesday, March 31-April 1, 2020
https://asia.minesandmoney.com/

* * *

Help keep GATA going:

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16

iii) Other physical stories:

ttps://www.jsmineset.com/2020/02/13/the-global-just-in-time-inventory-challenge/

The Global “Just In Time” Inventory Challenge!

Posted February 13th, 2020 at 10:00 AM (CST) by J. Johnson & filed under General Editorial.

Great and Wonderful Thursday Morning Folks,

Gold is higher in the early morning trade; in fact, it made a new high for the week with the trade at $1,577.10 up $5.50 after reaching $1,581.10 with the low at $1,568.50. Silver is higher as well, yet never allowed to do much more than trade slightly higher, with the price at $17.605 up 10.8 cents after reaching $17.665 with the low at $17.440. The US Dollar keeps being rallied during the day sessions and is now valued at 98.890 down 0.032 points after hitting 98.945 with the low at 98.745. With all the Repo printing going on with the dollar pricings going higher, one would think the Fed Res is signaling us that when this game of print is stopped, so will this fiat rally. All of this of course has happened already, before 5 am pst, the Comex open, the London close, and after a gallop poll claims the Democrats worst nightmare (which they’ve chosen to ignore all this time), that a majority of Americans are saying they’re better off now than in the past elections. My message to the party is, don’t stop spreading your ideas of love for higher taxes and more control over everything. I really think it’s catching on .

Our emerging markets currency watch is flat to higher in the overnight. In Venezuela, Gold is now priced at 15,751.29 Bolivar, adding back 81.9 with Silver now trading at 175.830 completely unchanged from yesterday. In Argentina, Gold is now valued at 96,462.54 Peso’s proving a gain of 722.08 in the overnight with Silver at 1,076.75 Peso’s regaining 2.14. In Turkey, the Lira has Gold pegged at 9,554.70 providing the holder a gain of 74.11 T-Lira’s with Silver up 0.306 of a Lira at 106.661.

The February Silver Deliveries doubled in demand during yesterday’s activity with the count now at 10 and with a 1 lot Volume up on the board with another one of those “no price trades” so far today. Silver’s Overall Open Interest is now at 223,811 Overnighters, proving a gain of 1,828 more shorts in order to stay the price, yet barely able to keep the money of the people down 10 cents. The early morning Volume in the March contract is still super low at 25,536 with the OI at 119,613 with a reminder that the March options are coming off the board in 12 more days.

February Gold’s Delivery Demands now has a post of 876 up on the board and (unlike Silver) it has a trading range for its Volume of 27 between $1,574.10 and $1,570.20 with the last buy/sell at $1,573.40. This proves 102 demands for physicals got a receipt from somewhere, if you’ve been reading me for a while you know no one has any idea what the receipts really mean. In short, your guess is as good as mine. Gold’s Overall Open Interest is now at 656,899 Overnighters showing a “short” exit of 1,057 pieces of paper since yesterday’s early morning count.

While we wait for more data regarding the airborne Coronavirus, China continues to clamp down hard on the people of Wuhan and it’s mid-level party members controlling the providence; Sudden Militarization Of Wuhan’s P4 Lab Raises New Questions About The Origin Of The Deadly Covid-19 Virus. Inside this report they claim senior Chinese officials were ‘removed’ for “dereliction of duty”. As the media continues to tell us what the officials are saying and doing, other audio is coming out from below giving more details on who/what/why, things have gotten out of control. Like we’ve mentioned in the past, the truth is somewhere in the middle. It may be best to be more concerned now than not, as their idea of telling people to stay in place and away from gatherings, might be a good idea for concerned individuals. Remember, panic does no one any good, remaining calm and using logic helps everyone, including the panicked.

The markets for now are totally ignoring the idea of a “ Global Just In Time Inventory Challenge”. That may be because the algos are built to remove this natural human emotion, of people moving money around to protect their retirements when events like this occur. That can only be temporary until products are no longer found on the shelves. Until then we wait, being positive no matter what, with a smile on our face, and a prayer for all. Make it a great day no matter what, and as always …

Stay Strong!

Johnson

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them

(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Dawn Giel | Dan Mangan

Published 3:33 PM ET Tue, 20 Nov 2018 Updated 10:32 AM ET Wed, 21 Nov 2018CNBC.com

Amr Alfiky | Reuters

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market

(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

Submitted by cpowell on Tue, 2019-03-05 14:40. Section: Daily Dispatches

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

…

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early THURSDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results, important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 6.9834/ GETTING VERY DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1

//OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.9871 /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 20.83 POINTS OR 0.71%

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 93.66 POINTS OR 0.34%

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 33.48 POINTS OR 0.14%

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL RED/

USA dollar index UP TO 99.02/Euro FALLS TO 1.0855

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. –.04/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 109.68/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 51.10 and Brent: 55.47

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN: ON -SHORE DOWN/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO -.40%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 0.87% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.28%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.27: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 0.93

3k Gold at $1574.75 silver at: 17.65 7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 23/100 in roubles/dollar) 63.57

3m oil into the 51 dollar handle for WTI and 55 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 109.68 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9784 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0621 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to –0.40%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 1.59% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.06%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6. TURKISH LIRA: UP TO 6.0624….deadly to the country!!

Markets Hit By “Perfect Storm” As Stocks Slide On Surge In New Coronavirus Cases, Deaths

For weeks we had been warning that China was misrepresenting, obfuscating and otherwise lying, either directly or simply by changing the definition of an “infected case” or even “death”, about the true extent of the corona pandemic, a conclusion that was obvious by simply looking (here and here) at the underlying “official” data. This morning, the quants and algos got a huge shock when China was finally overwhelmed with the level of lies – and cremated bodies – since the breakout of the covid pandemic, and was forced to “adjust” the number of new cases higher by a whopping 15,000. Think of it as GAAP virus accounting vs non-GAAP, which excludes the inconvenient “one-time” cases.

The result has been a sharp drop in US equity futures and global stock prices, as it raised fresh questions about the scale of the crisis and more importantly, how long it will take China to truly contain the pandemic, even as markets had taken comfort from the World Health Organization’s emergency program head describing the apparent slowdown in the epidemic’s spread as “very reassuring”. Oops.

As a reminder, with consensus expecting China to regain control in the next few weeks, any delay puts the V-shaped Q2 China (and global) GDP recovery in peril, and as such the longer China pushes back on this critical D-day, the harder it will be for traders to pretend the pandemic is not happening.

The sharp rise in the headline number of deaths and infections unnerved world markets, as traders halted a recent rally in stocks and retreated back to the safety of government bonds and gold.

It wasn’t just the surge in new cases: health officials in China’s central province of Hubei – at least those who weren’t summarily fired in the past few days – said 242 people had died from the flu-like virus on Wednesday, the fastest rise in the daily count since the pathogen was identified in December. Apparently this too was due to a change in definition as until now China was representing coronavirus deaths as the result of something far more innocent such a pneumonia. Well no more.

The new deaths took the total to 1369 vs. 6,017 recovered. That’s an 18.5% fatality rate if one looks at that ratio, and a ‘Spanish Flu’ 2.2% if one looks at total cases, if they are now accurate, according to Rabobank.

Ironically, the surge in numbers came a day after markets cheered when China reported its lowest number of new cases in two weeks, bolstering a forecast by the country’s senior medical adviser that the epidemic could end by April. Well, no more.

“Just when markets were getting comfortable with the idea that the Covid-19 infection increase was trending lower, the sudden jump in the number of new cases in Hubei has jolted them out of this sense of complacency,” said Khoon Goh, head of Asia research at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd.

Hubei had previously only allowed infections to be confirmed by RNA tests, which were limited to roughly 3,000 per day (as we also noted) and can take days to process. But as it was overwhelmed by new cases, it was forced to start using quicker computerized tomography (CT) scans, which reveal lung infections, usually manifesting themselves only in very advanced, of not outright terminal, cases, the Hubei health commission said, to confirm virus cases and isolate them faster. As a result, another new 14,840 cases were reported in the central province on Thursday, from 2,015 new cases nationwide a day earlier. The new diagnostic procedure could explain the spike in deaths, said Raina McIntyre, head of biosecurity research at the Kirby Institute at the University of New South Wales. “Presumably, there are deaths which occurred in people who did not have a lab diagnosis but did have a CT,” she told Reuters. “It is important that these also be counted.”

The new methodology effectively lowers the bar for classifying new infections, contributing to the spike in cases. Chinese officials said the method is only being used in Hubei, though it was expected to be gradually extended to other regions.

In total, about 60,000 people have now been confirmed to have the virus, the vast majority of them in China, although it is very possible that there will be far more global cases once those infected start manifesting symptoms.

And as the full extent of the pandemic slowly emerges, trader optimism and “hopes” were finally sapped, and European markets – trading at all time highs on Tuesday – quickly followed Asia into red with London FTSE, Frankfurt’s DAX and Paris’ CAC 40 down 0.3% to 0.9%, and the euro slumped near a three-year low against the dollar after a torrid couple of weeks.

AXA Investment Management’s chief economist Gilles Moec said the impact of virus could be part of a “perfect storm” for Europe that hurts the economy for months and then gets compounded by a heated trade battle with the United States.

“We started with the premise that this virus would be worse that SARS and that has become consensus,” Moec said. “So attention turns to who is hit the hardest and Europe is among the usual suspects and Germany in particular give China is its biggest export market. So the reaction of the exchange rate is probably rational,” he added.

E-mini S&P 500 futures were also down 0.5%, pointing to a fade in Wall Street’s strong rally.

With investors seeking safety, 10-year U.S. Treasuries fell below 1.6% European yields fell around 3 basis points, the yen strengthened past 110 per dollar and a rally in oil prices halted.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index was on pace for its biggest drop this month, dragged lower by miners and banks. Barclays slipped as the bank revealed British regulators are probing Chief Executive Officer Jes Staley’s relationship with financier Jeffrey Epstein. Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. edged up in the pre-market after quarterly revenue rose more than expected.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan had snapped two days of 1% gains to end 0.1% lower as most markets across the region posted modest declines. Japan’s Nikkei fell 0.1%. Australia’s ASX/S&P 200 index retreated from a record high. The Shanghai Composite fell 0.6% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was 0.3% softer. Gold rose 0.6% to $1574 per ounce. Overall, Asian stocks swung between gains and losses, as advances in technology stocks were offset by declines in financial and industrial shares. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was little changed as markets in the region were mixed. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 gained, while regional gauges for China and Hong Kong snapped a recent rebound.

“There is no panic on this,” said Frank Benzimra, head of Asia equity strategy at Societe Generale in Hong Kong, since the dramatic rise seems so far to be contained to Hubei.

Maybe there is “no panic” but even Benzimra himself logged in from home and speaking to clients by phone as meetings are increasingly canceled, even in cities not subject to quarantine. “Most markets were recouping their losses so that has offered maybe some excuse to sell Asian markets,” he said. “But there is not much energy in this.”

What happens next? Morgan Stanley believes a gradual, rather than sharp recovery is the most likely scenario, and the longer it takes China to contain the pandemic, the more delayed the recovery will be. That all bodes ill for regional economies and has weighed on Asian currencies and commodities.

In FX, the yen rallied and the Swiss franc advanced to its strongest level since 2015. Japan’s currency gained versus all major peers and German bunds followed Treasuries higher. The Swiss franc touched 1.0622 per euro, its strongest level since August 2015, as the shared currency was weighed down by speculation of further ECB easing and concerns about Germany’s political stability. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index edged lower and the greenback traded mixed against Group- of-10 peers; the U.S. currency reversed Asia-session gains after after touching yesterday’s high of 1.0865 per euro. The euro’s slump to a nearly three-year low versus the dollar seems to have caught some investors off guard and options traders are responding to the risk that the move has further legs. The Australian dollar, a liquid proxy for China’s economic health because of Australia’s export exposure, retraced its recent rally and traded 0.3% softer at $0.6716. China’s yuan was 0.1% weaker, while the pound gained after Sajid Javid quit as the U.K.’s Chancellor of the Exchequer.

In commodities, rallying oil prices stalled, with Brent crude flat at$55.72 per barrel, 15% below where it was before the coronavirus outbreak.

To the day ahead now, the data highlight comes from the US today, where there’ll be the release of January’s CPI reading as well as weekly initial jobless. In terms of central bank developments, the Senate Banking Committee will be holding a hearing into the nomination of Judy Shelton and Christopher Waller to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Other speakers include the ECB’s Hernandez de Cos, Panetta and Lane, along with Kaplan and Williams from the Fed. There’ll also be a policy decision from the Banco de Mexico. Lastly, earnings highlights out today include Nissan, PepsiCo, AIG and Nvidia, and separately, the European Commission will be presenting their Winter 2020 economic forecasts.

Market Snapshot

S&P 500 futures down 0.8% to 3,353.75
STOXX Europe 600 down 0.6% to 428.76
MXAP down 0.1% to 170.83
MXAPJ down 0.08% to 556.11
Nikkei down 0.1% to 23,827.73
Topix down 0.3% to 1,713.08
Hang Seng Index down 0.3% to 27,730.00
Shanghai Composite down 0.7% to 2,906.07
Sensex down 0.3% to 41,460.48
Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.2% to 7,103.23
Kospi down 0.2% to 2,232.96
German 10Y yield fell 2.6 bps to -0.404%
Euro up 0.1% to $1.0886
Italian 10Y yield fell 5.4 bps to 0.748%
Spanish 10Y yield fell 3.4 bps to 0.276%
Brent futures down 1% to $55.22/bbl
Gold spot up 0.6% to $1,575.23
U.S. Dollar Index down 0.2% to 98.88

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

China took action on two fronts to gain control of the spiraling coronavirus outbreak: reporting a dramatic increase in cases and ousting top officials who failed to check the disease’s expansion; car sales in the country plunged to fresh lows in January as buyers stayed away from showrooms
European economic malaise is set to continue this year, the bloc’s executive said, warning a deadly viral outbreak could further damp the outlook. The European Commission singled out the coronavirus as a “key downside risk”
Boris Johnson fired a clutch of senior U.K. ministers including Business Secretary Andrea Leadsom — a former rival for the Conservative party leadership — in a dramatic cabinet cull on Thursday. After winning a majority in December’s election, the British prime minister is stamping his authority on his top team to bring in new blood and prepare the U.K. for life after Brexit
Some investors are paying up to hedge against the risk that the Fed will need to cut interest rates much more deeply than most expect this year. Traders on Wednesday bought out-of-the-money December and March eurodollar call options with a strike price of 99.50, which stand to benefit if policy makers make around three or more cuts
The ECB is looking for ways to favor environmentally friendly bonds in a fresh bid to intensify its fight against climate change. While buying environmentally friendly bonds for political reasons is a non-starter, officials are focusing instead on less controversial options. A key part of that is recognizing that purchasing carbon-intensive securities comes at a risk to the institution itself
Italy is in danger of missing its already unambitious growth targets for 2020 because of the coronavirus outbreak, according to a senior government official

Asian equity markets traded cautiously as the euphoria from the record highs on Wall St were soured by a significant jump in the number of additional coronavirus cases. The Hubei province reported 14840 new coronavirus cases under revised standards and 242 more deaths as of February 12th in which 13332 of the cases were made by clinical diagnosis. Nonetheless, ASX 200 (+0.2%) remained afloat with a slew of earnings the main driver for the biggest movers in the index including Big 4 bank NAB and with TPG Telecom bolstered after the federal court approved its merger with Vodafone Hutchison Australia, while Nikkei 225 (-0.1%) succumbed to the flows into the JPY and as participants also digested quarterly results. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (-0.3%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.7%) were subdued amid uncertainty following the surge in confirmed cases and although some suggested the number would have been less than the prior day without the adjustments, the number of new fatalities more than doubled. Finally, 10yr JGBs were choppy amid the cautious risk tone and after the BoJ’s presence in the market for over JPY 1.2tln of JGBs heavily concentrated in 1yr-10yr maturities, did little to spur demand for the benchmark.

Top Asian News

China Navigates the Latest Threat to Its Debt-Fueled Boom
MUFG Hong Kong Staff Told That Some Employees Under Quarantine
Tencent’s $127 Billion Rally Bolstered by Work-From- Home Masses
Malaysia Plans Stimulus as Virus May Worsen Growth at Decade Low

European stocks trade with losses across the board [Eurostoxx 50 -1.4%] following on from a similar APAC handover, as sentiment took a blow following an unprecedented rise in COVID-19 cases after an adjustment to standards. Bourses are firmly in the red, with the FTSE 100 (-1.7%) underperforming regional peers amid a slew of factors including losses in large-cap miners, oil giants and heavyweight financials. Market contacts highlighted notable selling program triggered for Eurostoxx 50 futures and a technical break below yesterday’s low in the DAX exacerbated downside. Sectors are largely lower but reflect risk aversion as defensive fare modestly better than cyclicals, with materials and energy sectors underperforming amid price action in their respective complexes. Back to the FTSE, Barclays (-2.0%) shares fell post-earnings after the Co. noted that it would be challenging to reach a 2020 ROTE of over 10%, while UK regulators opened a probe into CEO Staley’s link to Jeffrey Epstein. Meanwhile, miners bear the brunt of declines across the base metal markets – with Antofagasta (-1.7%), Glencore (-1.9%) and BHP (-0.8%) all lower. Similarly, oil giants feel downward pressure from the price action in the energy complex, albeit BP (-2.9%) and Shell (-3.0%) also trade ex-div today. Elsewhere, SMI-heavyweight Nestle (-2.3%) shares fell after missing revenue and organic sales growth forecasts whilst also halting the production of its low-sugar brand due to coronavirus’ impact. Note: Nestle has ~19% weighting in the SMI and ~3.2% weighing in the Stoxx600. Credit Suisse (-0.7%) shares fell with the broader market after initially seeing some reprieve from earnings after posting a 69% jump in annual net profit despite the spying scandal. Other earnings-related movers include Orange (+1.9%), Centrica (-16%), Zurich Insurance (+0.7%), Clariant (+4.9%) and Pernod Ricard (+1.7%)

Top European News

Johnson Overhauls Cabinet for Life Outside EU: U.K.Reshuffle
Barclays’ Staley Faces Probe on Transparency of Epstein Ties
Thyssenkrupp Says Elevator Sale Is Imminent as Losses Mount
Europe’s Recovery from Manufacturing Slump Hit by Coronavirus

In FX, the traditional safe-havens are back in demand and outperforming, as revised classification standards used to determine whether an individual has contracted the coronavirus at the source in Hubei has hugely inflated the number of confirmed cases and reignited concerns about the overall tally and contagion, especially if the new methodology is rolled out to other provinces. In response, the Yen is back above 110.00, the Franc is nearer 0.9750 than 0.9800 and Gold is back up around Usd 1575/oz from circa Usd 1560 at one stage yesterday, while the Dollar has pulled back accordingly.

GBP/EUR – Sterling remains relatively resilient in the face of the downturn in broad risk sentiment, albeit partly due to the Greenback losing momentum, as noted above, and the Euro continuing to depreciate amidst weak fundamentals and more outflows against currencies that are costlier to fund. However, Cable is still capped ahead of 1.3000 and the 10 DMA (1.2984 today) that was matched, but not surpassed and Eur/Gbp has not spiralled down through 0.8400 as Eur/Usd holds just above key Fib support (1.0864), for now at least.
USD – The DXY has slipped a bit further from Wednesday’s new multi-month high (99.052 to 98.852) on the aforementioned deterioration in risk appetite that has boosted the Jpy, Chf and Xau, though the index and Buck overall remains underpinned ahead of US CPI, weekly claims and more Fed speak via Williams. Technically, 99.249 forms nearest chart resistance, while support resides down at 98.544.
CAD/NZD/AUD/NOK/SEK – The Loonie has lost its crude prop, but is gleaning enough support to hold around 1.3250 after comments from BoC Governor Poloz reiterating the cons of looser monetary policy and claiming that Canada’s economy is in a good place, while the Kiwi is consolidating off post-RBNZ peaks circa 0.6450 following Deputy Governor Hawkesby underlining a genuine neutral stance and the Aussie is acknowledging RBA Governor Lowe reiterating a wait-and-see bias given no rush to get inflation back to target as Aud/Usd meanders in the low 0.6700+ area and Aud/Nzd pivots 1.0425. Ahead, NZ manufacturing PMI and food prices. Elsewhere, the Norwegian Crown is naturally more attune to a dip in oil prices, but its Swedish peer is also wary about a return to risk aversion.
EM – Widespread declines vs the Dollar including the Yuan for obvious reasons, but also the Lira even though Turkish ip beat consensus and the Rand regardless of a more pronounced recovery in SA mining production. Similary, the Mexican Peso is on the back foot awaiting the anticipated 25 bp Banxico rate cut later today.
Bank of Canada Governor Poloz said the Canadian economy is in a pretty good place and suggested that lowering rates could increase risks from higher debt levels. (Newswires)
RBA Governor Lowe said outlook in Australia is improving but added that coronavirus is having an uncertain impact and noted that Chinese policy stimulus will be good for Australia. Furthermore, RBA Governor Lowe said low interest rates are working and are going to take time, while he added they are not obsessed with getting inflation back to target in a hurry. (Newswires)
RBNZ Assistant Governor Hawkesby said the RBNZ has a genuine neutral bias but is open to review that in light of developments, while he added that the impact from coronavirus expected to be modest but will review it if travel restrictions are prolonged or virus is more widespread. (Newswires)

In commodities, WTI and Brent front-month futures have erased a bulk of the prior session’s gains, with prices south of 51/bbl and 55.50/bbl respectively, as the unexpected jump in coronavirus cases sparked risked aversion, while no sense of urgency from Russia regarding output action also adds to the bearish narrative. Further on the OPEC front, Kremlin stated that Moscow has not yet decided on further action with OPEC on oil cuts, adding that it will announce a deal in due course – as a reminder, the Russian Energy Ministry met with domestic oil producers yesterday with some comments alluding to most Russian companies wanting the cuts to be continued for one more quarter. Elsewhere, the IEA monthly oil report downgraded its 2020 demand growth forecast by 365k BPD – the deepest among the three oil market reports, citing impacts of the coronavirus on demand. This follows OPEC and EIA slashing their respective 2020 global oil demand growth forecasts by 230k BPD and 310k BPD. Elsewhere, spot gold retains an underlying bid amid the risk-off sentiment with prices meandering 1575/oz. Conversely, copper sees sentiment-driven losses with prices back below 2.6/lb after briefly reclaiming the level

US Event Calendar

8:30am: US CPI MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.2%; CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.1%
8:30am: US CPI YoY, est. 2.4%, prior 2.3%; CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 2.2%, prior 2.3%
8:30am: Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY, prior 0.6%; Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY, prior 0.0%
8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, est. 210,000, prior 202,000; Continuing Claims, est. 1.73m, prior 1.75m
9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, prior 66.5

Central Banks

10am: Senate Panel Holds Hearing for Fed Nominees Shelton, Waller
12:45pm: Fed’s Kaplan Speaks in Texas
5:30pm: Fed’s Williams Speaks in New York

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Although the survey suggests concerns over the virus and the growth impact hover in the background, markets have continued to take heart from increasing signs that the coronavirus’ impact on the global economy will be manageable; however, a jump in the number of cases in Hubei this morning following what appears to be a change in methodology in the way cases are diagnosed has seen markets stall in Asia. The number of reported cases in China’s Hubei province has jumped by 14,840 and fatalities by 242. Meanwhile, Japan has also confirmed another 44 cases on the quarantined ship, bringing the total of infections from the vessel to 218 while the US also confirmed another case overnight bringing the tally there to 14. Also as we go to print news wires are reporting that in Vietnam, local authorities have placed a commune of 10,600 people in isolation after at least 10 cases of the novel coronavirus were confirmed in Vinh Phuc province. Elsewhere, Hong Kong has extended the closure of schools until at least March 16 and United Airlines said that it will extend the suspension of China flights until April 24. At a more micro level, MGM Resorts International withdrew its earnings forecast for 2020, citing the unpredictable impact of the virus on its casinos in Macau and Las Vegas. See our China economist’s latest update on the impact of the virus here.

The main bourses in Asia are all down as a result, including the Nikkei (-0.27%), Hang Seng (-0.26%), Shanghai Comp (-0.67%) and Kospi (-0.03%), however the extent of the drops are fairly modest. Staying with Asia it’s worth noting that the Chinese Communist Party’s top decision body said overnight that the economic and social goals for 2020 will be met by keeping the prudent monetary policy flexible and appropriate, making greater use of fiscal policy, boosting domestic consumption, and promoting large foreign-investment projects.

Prior to the small risk-off this morning, US equities powered forward to new highs last night, with the S&P 500 advancing a further +0.65%, to put the index up +4.77% on a month-to-date basis now and marking the 3rd consecutive session that the index has hit a record high. The US index has traded up every day this week, and is now up in 7 of the last 8 trading sessions. Risk assets made gains across the board, with the NASDAQ (+0.90%) and Dow Jones (+0.94%) also at new records, along with the STOXX 600 (+0.63%) and the DAX (+0.89%) in Europe. Energy stocks outperformed, bolstered by oil’s strong performance, with both Brent crude (+3.30%) and WTI (+2.46%) up strongly, with Brent having its best day since early January. Meanwhile, investors moved into peripheral European debt, with Greek 10yr yields falling below 1% in trading for the first time ever, while the spread of BTPs over bunds fell -6.8bps, closing at their tightest level since May 2018. Meanwhile, the Euro (-0.38%) hit its lowest level against the Dollar since May 2017 – and down 7 out of the last 8 days – as concerns over the European economy linger. A fair amount of press has been given to DB’s piece earlier this week on the risks of a technical recession in Germany post the Coronavirus. See the report here ahead of Q4 GDP on Friday.

Having said that, and as discussed above, risk was in a bullish mood yesterday. Another factor that may have supported this were the results from New Hampshire that we reported this time yesterday. Although Bernie Sanders, came out on top, this was only with 25.7% of the vote, which was actually c.3 points below his polling in the RealClearPolitics average. Furthermore, as we discussed yesterday, if you add up support for the 3 more centrist candidates (Buttigieg, Klobuchar and Biden), they actually got a majority of the popular vote (52.6%), suggesting Mr. Sander’s arithmetic towards the nomination may still be tricky, especially with Mr Bloomberg set to imminently enter the race. Perhaps our survey respondents see this?

In terms of the latest on the race, we’ll have to wait until a week on Saturday for the next set of voting in Nevada. There are increasing questions being asked about the viability of former Vice President Joe Biden’s campaign, having come in 4th and 5th place, respectively, in the first 2 contests. He’s setting up South Carolina as his firewall later in the month, as his support is much stronger among African American voters, whereas both Iowa and New Hampshire are among the least racially diverse states in the US. That said, it’ll be an uphill struggle, and going back to 1972, the eventual Democratic presidential nominee has always come either first or second in New Hampshire, so it would certainly break that run were someone other than Mr. Sanders or Mr. Buttigieg manage to win. Furthermore, the last person to win the Democratic nomination without winning either of the first two states was Bill Clinton back in 1992.

Staying with the United States, Fed Chair Powell testified before the Senate Banking Committee yesterday, though there wasn’t a great deal that was newsworthy out of his remarks following his testimony the previous day before the House Financial Services Committee. When Mr. Powell was asked about the coronavirus, he said it was “too uncertain to even speculate”. In terms of other Fed speakers, we also heard from Philadelphia Fed President Harker, who’s a voting member on the FOMC this year. Regarding rates, he said that his “own view right now is that we should hold steady for a while and watch how developments and the data unfold before taking any more action.” 10yr Treasury yields closed up +3.3bps yesterday, with the 2s10s curve steepening by +1.2bps.

In terms of central banks elsewhere, the Riksbank left rates unchanged yesterday at 0%, in line with expectations, and left their forecast for the repo rate the same as in December. They did lower their inflation forecast, with the 2020 CPIF forecast downgraded to +1.3%, having been +1.7% back in December, though they also revised growth up a tenth for 2020, 2021 and 2022. On the data front, there wasn’t a great deal out yesterday, but the Euro Area industrial production numbers showed a -2.1% decline in December (vs. -2.0% expected), the biggest monthly contraction since February 2016.

To the day ahead now, and the data highlight comes from the US today, where there’ll be the release of January’s CPI reading as well as weekly initial jobless claims, while from Europe we’ll get the final reading of German CPI for January. In terms of central bank developments, the Senate Banking Committee will be holding a hearing into the nomination of Judy Shelton and Christopher Waller to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Other speakers include the ECB’s Hernandez de Cos, Panetta and Lane, along with Kaplan and Williams from the Fed. There’ll also be a policy decision from the Banco de Mexico. Lastly, earnings highlights out today include Nissan, PepsiCo, AIG and Nvidia, and separately, the European Commission will be presenting their Winter 2020 economic forecasts.

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)THURSDAY MORNING/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT:

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 20.83 POINTS OR 0.71% //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 93.66 POINTS OR 0.34% /The Nikkei closed DOWN 33.48 POINTS OR 0.14%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .27%

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

JAPAN/COVID 19 UPDATE

(zerohedge)

Japan Reports First Coronavirus Death; Only The Third Outside China

Update (0650ET): After last night’s ‘undercounting’ bombshell on the mainland, investors really needed to see some reassuring headlines about the coronavirus outbreak to push equity markets back into the green.

This is definitely not that.

Japan has confirmed its first coronavirus death, the third confirmed virus death outside mainland China, according to domestic broadcaster NHK. The other deaths occurred in the Philippines and Hong Kong.

The woman who died was in her 80s, and living in Kanagawa Prefecture, just outside Tokyo.

* * *

Last night, we wrote the following in conclusion to our report on the dire numbers coming out of Hubei. Essentially, we predicted that President Xi was cranking up the Party’s scapegoating machine and getting ready to blame the undercounting of coronavirus cases and deaths on local officials.

Who could have seen that coming? The stock market wanted so badly to believe the Chinese data… bonds and commodities knew better.

But of course, smart traders who were paying attention yesterday might have been able to deduce that something was up. Beijing dismissed some of the top health officials in Wuhan and Hubei earlier this week, and last week it administered administrative punishments to hundreds of lower-level bureaucrats.

They have already been set up to take the fall for President Xi and his inner circle. Let the scapegoating begin.

Earlier in the week, Chinese media and the South China Morning Post, a newspaper in Hong Kong, reported that the Communist Party was preparing to punish the two top party officials in Hubei over their botched response to the Covid-19 outbreak. Of course, local officials have repeatedly claimed that their hands were tied by the national party, as President Xi and his inner circle were paranoid about the news getting out and jeopardizing China’s ambitious growth targets.

But unfortunately for the party leadership, the outbreak didn’t simply go away. Instead, it has evolved into a global plague and caused the deaths of nearly 1,500 people in just a few weeks, putting the SARS outbreak, which terrorized China and the international community in 2002 and 2003, to shame.

But that doesn’t matter. Because on Thursday morning, the Communist Party officially fired the top party officials in the province over his handling of the epidemic. Party Secretary of Hubei Province Jiang Chaoliang is being relieved of his position, to be replaced by Xi loyalist and current Shanghai mayor Ying Yong, according to the New York Times.

Ma Guoqiang, the top party official in Wuhan whose name is probably familiar to those who have been closely following the situation in the city, has also been fired. He will be replaced by Wang Zhonglin, currently the party secretary of Jinan, a city in China’s east.

Xi couldn’t have set this is up more perfectly: The public has been clamboring for local officials to pay for botching their handling of the outbreak. Several stirred up anger by appearing in public without masks, or with their masks worn incorrectly. But by far their largest transgression – at least in the eyes of China’s tightly controlled public – was the decision to punish Dr. Li Wenliang, the opthamologist who tried to warn the city about the virus, but was punished for his efforts, and later died fighting the virus. Dr. Li has become a martyr across China, and the Communist Party needed to find a way to distance itself from his death, or risk more widespread “instability.”

They’ve succeeded.

Yesterday, we reported that the number of people confirmed to have the coronavirus in Hubei, which is at the center ofthe outbreak, soared by 14,840 on Wednesday thanks to a change in China’s testing and classification standards after turning away thousands of deathly ill patients in Wuhan. That brought the total in the province to 48,206, while the total worldwide

Across China, the number of confirmed deaths is approaching 1,400, with still only a couple of deaths outside China.

END

3 C CHINA

CHINA/COVID 19

China reports a huge jump in jew Covid 19 cases and deaths//oil and stocks tumble/gold rises

(zerohedge)

China Reports Huge Jump In New Coronavirus Infections And Deaths; Oil, Stocks Tumble

All those clueless hacks who warned us for years not to trust China’s economic numbers, yet were so gullible to believe any coronavirus pandemic “data” released by Beijing are going to look pretty stupid right about now.

Hubei just released its latest round of coronavirus outbreak figures, and in a clear confirmation of the ‘conspiracy theory’ that China had altered the way it was reporting Covid-19 deaths and cases – clearly in order to suggest that things were improving and you should go back to work, while ideally buying stocks, the province at the epicenter of the Coronavirus pandemic just came clean and the numbers are stunning.

The number of cases exploded by 14,840, resulting in a total of 48,206 cases, including 13,332 clinically diagnose cases:

And just like that we are back on the quadratic growth path in new cases, as one would expect from an exponentially spreading viral pandemic.

This also means that JPM, which earlier today was delighted by how far the infected case load is from its “pessimistic” forecast…

… will have to dramatically change its narrative.

So what happened?

Recall that on Monday we published “This Is How China Is Rigging The Number Of Coronavirus Infections” (just two days after pointing out that “There Is Something Very Strange In The Latest Chinese Official Coronavirus Numbers“) in which we explained that China on Feb 7 moved the goalposts by changing the definition of the term “infection” and that “going forward patients who tested positive for the virus but have no symptoms will no longer be regarded as confirmed.”

Well, it appears that a few days later, China changed its mind and has reverted to the original definition of “infection” while also including “clinical diagonisis” to determine if a new infection had take place. This is how Hubei explained the change:.

With the deepening of understanding of new coronavirus pneumonia and the accumulation of experience in diagnosis and treatment, in view of the characteristics of the epidemic in Hubei Province, the General Office of the National Health and Health Commission and the Office of the State Administration of Traditional Chinese Medicine issued the “Diagnosis and Treatment Plan for New Coronavirus Infected Pneumonia (Trial (Version) “adds” clinical diagnosis “to the case diagnosis classification in Hubei Province, so that patients can receive standardized treatment according to confirmed cases as early as possible to further improve the success rate of treatment.

According to the plan, Hubei Province has recently conducted investigations on suspected cases and revised the diagnosis results, and newly diagnosed patients were diagnosed according to the new diagnosis classification. In order to be consistent with the classification of case diagnosis issued by other provinces across the country, starting today, Hubei Province will include the number of clinically diagnosed cases into the number of confirmed cases for publication.

Of course, the real reason for the original change as noted above was to give the impression that China was succeeding in containing the infection, which helped boost stocks – both in China and globally – sharply higher, and in the case of the S&P, to new all time highs.

As for the catastrophic revision, it may also explain why on Tuesday morning, China’s CCTV reported that Hubei province removed its two top health officials, namely health commission head Liu Yingzi and party chief Zhang Jin from their posts. Almost as if, in retrospect, they were caught hiding something…

And while China can now claim it wants to be more transparent (which is odd for a nation that is still refusing to admit the US CDC on the ground) and wants a more comprehensive definition of “infection” because it is suddenly so concerned about all those people it ordered to go back to work on Monday (with new cases now emerging in people’s workplaces forcing an immediate quarantine of all workers and co-workers), it somehow also changed the definition of “death”, because at the same time as the explosion in new cases, which clearly indicates that the pandemic is now clearly out of control, the number of reported deaths in Hubei alone spiked by 242 to 1,310 (we are still waiting for the official number of deaths across all of China which will likely add quite a few more cases to the Hubei total).

What is absolutely terrifying about the chart above is that, of the 242 new deaths, more than double the previous day’s total, is that according to the Hubei government, 135 are from the new “clinically diagnosed” category. This means that for weeks China was likely assigning coronavirus deaths to pneumonia (as we warned it was doing on Jan 25 in “This Is How China Is Hiding The True Number Of Coronavirus Deaths“),which also means that the real number of Coronavirus deaths is likely in the thousands.

For those curious what the now completely discredited fake coronavirus data, reported by China until today with the sole intent of boosting risk assets was, here is the full breakdown. Naturally none of these numbers matter anymore following today’s sudden burst of Chinese truthiness.

In kneejerk reaction to the shocking surge in both new cases and deaths, Dow futures immediately plunged…

As did oil…

As is the yuan…

But at least gold is sharply higher:

Who could have seen that coming? The stock market wanted so badly to believe the Chinese data… bonds and commodities knew better. The clearest indication that all Chinese data was fake, however, came from Global Times Editor on Chief who earlier today tweeted that “New infection cases outside of Hubei have dropped for 8 consecutive days. It is now time for the US and other countries to actively consider resuming flights to China.”

Ok you pathological liar.

Finally, we now look forward to what explanation China’s global tourism impressario, WHO Director Tedros Adhanom best known as the “WHO Candidate Accused of Covering Up Epidemics“, will come up with now after spending the past two weeks praising China’s response and claiming there is no risk of a global pandemic, while criticizing the US for daring to halt flights to China.

END

COVID 19/AUTO SALES INSIDE CHINA

This is how the Covid 19 will decimate Chinese auto cales

(zerohedge)

Coronavirus “Likely To Wreak Havoc” And Decimate February China Auto Sales

Just days ago, we reported about a major inventory glut in the Chinese auto market due to the effects of the coronavirus on an industry that has already been mired in recession for months.

Now, auto industry executives are admitting that the virus could “wreak havoc” on sales and production for the first quarter, according to the Asia Times. Automakers across the country have been forced to cancel sales targets and offer subsidies to hold over dealers during the outbreak.

The coronavirus has now killed over 1,000 people (if you are to believe the CCP’s likely understated numbers) and more than 40,000 people are now confirmed to be infected in China.

Accordingly, traffic to showrooms has collapsed across the country since late January. A China Automobile Dealer’s association poll shows that dealers predict a drastic drop in sales of 50% to 80% this month, compared to February 2019. 70% of dealers have said they have seen “almost no customers” since the end of January.

Volvo has announced same day subsidies totaling about $1.42 million and BMW has cancelled dealers’ sales targets in February. It has also said targets for March will be “flexibly set”. Ford and Hyundai have simply decided not to assess the sales performance of their Chinese dealers in Q1.

The CADA said auto sales “show a cliff-like decline”.

Recall, we also reported just days ago that average inventory levels were at 62.7% for January, according to the China Automobile Dealer Association. These numbers are far above the standard 50% level that is considered normal in the industry.

This follows China’s Miao Wei, Minister of Industry and Information Technology, saying in mid-January (prior to the coronavirus outbreak becoming severe) that the industry still faces “big downward pressure”.

At the time, he predicted sales of just 25 million units for the year. We obviously think that this number could wind up being materially lower.

Recall, sales for 2019 totaled 25.769 million units. Sales of just 25 million units – an optimistic prediction in our eyes – would mark a third straight year of declines for the world’s largest auto market regardless

**The MIIT also said at the time that it would further study and review its NEV vehicle subsidies.** Recall, Beijing backing away from these subsidies caused NEV sales to taper off toward the end of 2019, sullying what was an otherwise consistent silver lining for the country, even amidst the overall recession in autos.With no signs of the country recovering from its ongoing epidemic, there doesn’t seem to be *any* silver linings left.

We noted in December that NEV sales plunged 42% in November after Beijing backed away. The government is ostensibly dedicating all of its efforts to deal with the country’s ongoing outbreak, and so Beijing has not revisited its comments about EVs yet, and we are already halfway through Q1 2020.

China did say, however, it is going to “maintain support” for NEVs, without getting into too much detail. Miao also said he’s confident that the country will ensure “stable industrial production in 2020” while phasing out “zombie firms”.

There may have been some spooky foreshadowing in those words from mid-January, as almost every business in the locked down major cities of China now looks like a “zombie firm”.

END

COVID 19/CHINA

Not good: Suddenly China is under militarization of the P4 Wuhan labs as they are now beginning to question whether the Covid 19 was accidently realized and it ws under study as a bioweapon

(zerohedge)

Sudden Militarization Of Wuhan’s P4 Lab Raises New Questions About The Origin Of The Deadly Covid-19 Virus

The reported militarization of Wuhan’s P4 Lab has raised new questions about the origin of the Covid-19 virus and the apparent cover-up that has occurred since it was first made public.

Following the removal of the most senior health officials in Wuhan yesterday, Chinese State Media has just reported that Chen Wei, China’s chief biochemical weapon defense expert, is now to be stationed in Wuhan to lead the efforts to overcome the deadly, pneumonia-like pathogen.

According to the PLA Daily report, Chen Wei holds the rank of major general, and along with reports that Chinese troops have started to “assist”, it strongly suggests that the PLA has taken control of the situation.

As Epoch Times reports, before this latest report, Chen’s military rank and specialization was not widely known. She was first interviewed on Jan. 30 by the state-run China Science Daily. In a second interview the next day, she predicted that the outbreak in Wuhan would let up over the next few days, but could worsen again soon…

“We need to prepare for the worst-case scenario, find the best solutions, and be ready to fight the longest battle,” she said.

Amid constant propaganda from CCP officials, and widespread censorship, many – including US Senator Tom Cotton – have wondered if the virus was bio-engineered, and was ‘leaked’ from the lab (which just happens to be located at the epicenter ofg the virus).

The militarization, and bringing in of China’s foremost bio-weapons expert raises the question once again of whether the Wuhan Strain of coronavirus (Covid-19) is the result of naturally emergent mutations against the possibility that it may be a bio-engineered strain meant for defensive immunotherapy protocols that was released into the public, most likely by accident since China’s rate of occupational accidents is about ten-times higher than America’s, and some twenty-times more than Europe’s – the only other regions with high-level virology labs.

A new report – a product of a collaboration between a retired professional scientist with 30 years of experience in genomic sequencing and analysis who helped design several ubiquitous bioinformatic software tools, and a former NSA counterterrorism analyst – suggests that this possible mistake may have been precipitated by the need to quickly finish research that was being rushed for John Hopkin’s Event 201 which was held this past October and meant to gameplan the containment of a global pandemic. Research may also have been hurried due to deadlines before the impending Chinese New Year – the timing of these events point to increased human error, not a globalist conspiracy.

Beijing has had four known accidental leaks of the SARS virus in recent years, so there is absolutely no reason to assume that this strain of coronavirus from Wuhan didn’t accidentally leak out as well.

Given that this outbreak was said to begin in late December when most bat species in the region are hibernatingand the Chinese horseshoe bat’s habitat covers an enormous swath of the region containing scores of cities and hundreds of millions people to begin with, the fact that this Wuhan Strain of coronavirus, denoted as Covid-19, emerged in close proximity to the only BSL-4 virology lab in China, now notoriously located in Wuhan, which in turn was staffed with at least two Chinese scientists – Zhengli Shi and Xing-Yi Ge (both virologists who had previously worked at an American lab which already bio-engineered an incredibly virulent strain of bat coronavirus) – the accidental release of a bio-engineered virus meant for defensive immunotherapy research from Wuhan’s virology lab cannot be automatically discounted, especially when the Wuhan Strain’s unnatural genomic signals are considered.

Zhengli Shi notably co-authored a controversial paper in 2015 which describes the creation of a new virus by combining a coronavirus found in Chinese horseshoe bats with another that causes human-like severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in mice.

This research sparked a huge debate at the time over whether engineering lab variants of viruses with possible pandemic potential is worth the risks.

As Nature.com reported in 2015, the findings reinforce suspicions that bat coronaviruses capable of directly infecting humans (rather than first needing to evolve in an intermediate animal host) may be more common than previously thought, the researchers say.

But other virologists question whether the information gleaned from the experiment justifies the potential risk. Although the extent of any risk is difficult to assess, Simon Wain-Hobson, a virologist at the Pasteur Institute in Paris, points out that the researchers have created a novel virus that “grows remarkably well” in human cells.

“If the virus escaped, nobody could predict the trajectory,” he says.

In October 2014, the US government imposed a moratorium on federal funding of such research on the viruses that cause SARS, influenza and MERS (Middle East respiratory syndrome, a deadly disease caused by a virus that sporadically jumps from camels to people).

“The only impact of this work is the creation, in a lab, of a new, non-natural risk,” agrees Richard Ebright, a molecular biologist and biodefence expert at Rutgers University in Piscataway, New Jersey.

Ebright and his co-author also conceded that funders may think twice about allowing such experiments in the future.

“Scientific review panels may deem similar studies building chimeric viruses based on circulating strains too risky to pursue,” they write, adding that discussion is needed as to “whether these types of chimeric virus studies warrant further investigation versus the inherent risks involved”.

Previously, scientists had believed, on the basis of molecular modelling and other studies, that it should not be able to infect human cells. The latest work shows that the virus has already overcome critical barriers, such as being able to latch onto human receptors and efficiently infect human airway cells, he says.

“I don’t think you can ignore that.”

Which brings us to perhaps the mostnotable finding.

A genetic analysis of the spike-protein genes – the exact region that was bio-engineered by the UNC lab in 2015, where Zhengli Shi and Xing-Yi Ge previously isolated a batty coronavirus that targets the ACE2 receptor just like this 2019-nCoV strain of the coronavirus does – indicates an artificial and unnatural origins of the Wuhan Strain’s spike-protein genes when they are compared to the genomes of wild relatives.

Instead of appearing similar and homologous to its wild relatives, an important section of the Wuhan Strain’s spike-protein region shares the most genetic similarity with a bio-engineered commercially available gene sequence that’s designed to help with immunotherapy research. It is mathematically possible for this to happen in nature – but only in a ten-thousand bats chained to ten-thousand Petri dishes and given until infinity sense.

And so, as the report goes on, a scientist who’s been prolifically involved with studying the molecular interaction of coronaviruses and humanity, spending decades and millions of dollars, and having even helped build a hyper-virulent coronavirus from scratch at UNC – just so happens to be working at the only BSL-4 virology lab in China that also just so happens to be at the epicenter of an outbreak involved a coronavirus that’s escaping zoological classification and whose novel spike-protein region shares more in common with a commercial genetic vector than any of its wild relatives

However, most recently, as an increasing number of global experts questioned China’s initial official story that this came from the food market in Wuhan, Zhengli Shi hurriedly wrote a new report, claiming instead of the initial findings that the novel virus came from a bat in Yunnan, the Chinese chrysanthemum. She said that this was a new discovery that she had worked hard for several years, and coincidentally wrote a paper after the outbreak and published it in the famous international academic journal Nature.

Which all seems like a very sudden about face for someone who had been working on bio-engineering the exact virus for decades…

曾錚 Jennifer Zeng@jenniferatntd

The reason why #CCP held on releasing info about #CoronavirusOutbreak
is that they were waiting for Dr. Shi Zhengli’s paper to be published at Nature so that they could claim bat is the origin. #COVID2019
中共推遲公佈 #武汉肺炎疫情是為等石正麗提交論文http://bit.ly/2SEIx1l

熱帖：中共推遲公佈疫情是為等石正麗提交論文

論文成功提交的次日，武漢新冠肺炎疫情才得以首次對國民公開。並公開承認，它能夠人傳人。

ntdtv.com

Giving further credence to the idea that the Wuhan Strain was bio-engineered is the existence of a patent application that looks to modulate a coronavirus’ spike-protein genes – the precise region altered by Zhengli Shi at UNC to make a hyper-virulent strain of coronavirus, and whose alteration and adaptation would explain the Wuhan Strain’s unusual behavior as discussed above.

Given the above facts, either:

A coronavirus spontaneously mutated and jumped to humans at a wet market or deep in some random bat cave which just so happened to be 20 miles from China’s only BSL-4 virology lab, a virus with an unusually slippery never-before-seen genome that’s evading zoological classification, and whose spike-protein region which allows it to enter host cells appears most like a bio-engineered commercial product, that somehow managed to infect its first three and roughly one-third of its initial victims despite them not being connected to this market, and then be so fined-tuned to humans that it’s gone on to create the single greatest public health crisis in Chinese history with approaching 100 million citizens locked-down or quarantined – also causing Mongolia to close its border with its largest trading partner for the first time in modern history.
Or, Chinese scientists failed to follow correct sanitation protocols possibly while in a rush during their boisterous holiday season, something that had been anticipated since the opening of the BSL-4 lab and has happened at least four times previously, and accidentally released this bio-engineered Wuhan Strain – likely created by scientists researching immunotherapy regimes against bat coronaviruses, who’ve already demonstrated the ability to perform every step necessary to bio-engineer the Wuhan Strain 2019-nCov – into their population, and now the world. As would be expected, this virus appears to have been bio-engineered at the spike-protein genes which was already done at UNC to make an extraordinarily virulent coronavirus. Chinese efforts to stop the full story about what’s going on are because they want the scales to be even since they’re now facing a severe pandemic and depopulation event. No facts point against this conclusion.

And, following tonight’s huge jump in reported cases and deaths…

…we thought the admittedly doomsday-ish conclusion from harvardtothebighouse.com seemed worthwhile noting:

“Simply and horribly, this is likely to become another Chernobyl or Fukushima – a catastrophic illustration of mankind’s hubris and intransigence clashing with Nature, as fate again reaps a once unimaginably tragic toll.”

As Professor Neil Ferguson warned, “we’re at the eary stages of a global pandemic”

Let’s hope he is wrong.

END

FOXCONN/CHINA/APPLE/COVID 19

Foxconn denies the Reuters report that its factories are now set to restart in China. They state that there is no timetable for this restart.

(zerohedge)

Foxconn Denies Reuters Reports On Factory Restart In China

Foxconn denied a report that it plans to resume over half its production by the end of February, as the Covid-19 outbreak worsens.

The report via Reuters noted that 50% of Foxconn’s production would come back online by the end of the month, and the aim for full production for next month. This sent Apple shares to near record highs this week; however, Foxconn ruined the party and said Reuters was incorrect about plant resumptions.

The statement by the world’s largest contract electronics maker was published via the Taipei stock exchange on Thursday, and first cited by Reuters.

Foxconn is Apple’s main iPhone assembler in China and offered no timetable of when its factories would reopen.

Foxconn received the go-ahead to reopen some plants in China this week. However, only about 10% of its workforce had returned to several plants in southern Shenzhen and central Zhengzhou on Monday.

Apple has also extended the shutdown of its retail stores across the country. Stores were supposed to open earlier this week but have now delayed until February 15.

TrendForce Corp. said Apple could see a 10% decline in iPhone sales in 1Q, from 45.5 million to about 41 million units, due mostly because of factory shutdowns tied to the virus outbreak.

We’ve noted, in the last several weeks, that if Foxconn factories cannot resume production by early February and have full production by the end of the month, shortages would develop for Apple iPhones and AirPods.

The one sector with the most exposure to Greater China and the Asia Pacific is also the sector that has outperformed the most in recent months: Tech. This means that supply chain disruptions are about to cause one of the most significant shocks since the financial crisis.

This won’t end well for Apple if shipments are delayed and sales plunge. But, then again, the company has billions of dollars in stock buybacks that it can use to levivtate price.

end

CHINA/COVID 19 UPDATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON

China has ground to a halt as we have predicted: indicators confirm worst case scenario

(zerohedge)

China Has Ground To A Halt: “On The Ground” Indicators Confirm Worst-Case Scenario

Back on Monday, when analysts and investors were desperately seeking clues whether China has managed to reboot its economy from the 2-week long hiatus following the Lunar New Year/Coronavirus pandemic amid the information blackout unleashed by the communist party in the already opaque country, we pointed out some alternative ways to keep tabs of what is really taking place “on the ground” in China, where Xi Jinping has been urging local businesses and workers to reopen and resume output, while ignoring the risk the viral pandemic poses to them (with potentially catastrophic consequences).

Specifically, Morgan Stanley suggested that real time measurements of Chinese pollution levels would provide a “quick and dirty” (no pun intended) way of observing if any of China’s major metropolises had returned back to normal. What it found was that among some of the top Chinese cities including Guangzhou, Shanghai and Chengdu, a clear pattern was evident – air pollution was only 20-50% of the historical average. As Morgan Stanley concluded, “This could imply that human activities such as traffic and industrial production within/close to those cities are running 50-80% below their potential capacity.”

As a reminder, all this is (or technically, isn’t) taking place as President Xi Jinping on Wednesday sought to send a message that progress had been made in bringing the coronavirus outbreak under control and, for most parts of the country, the focus should be on getting back to business.

According to state television, Xi chaired a meeting of the Politburo Standing Committee, China’s supreme political body, on the latest developments on the crisis and future policy responses, concluding that there had been “positive changes” with “positive results”.

Xi also reiterated that all levels of local government and Communist Party committees must strive to achieve China’s social and development goals this year, indicating that he did not want the public health crisis to hinder progress.

Most importantly, Xi urged local authorities to refrain from taking excessive measures to curb contagion, and yet clip after clip from China…

… shows that the measures being taken are far beyond merely “excessive” when it comes to limiting the potential spread of the virus, which probably makes sense considering the unexpected surge in infected cases in Wuhan, which have sent the total for China just shy of 60,000.

Add to this the ongoing uncertainty that Beijing is far behind the curve in containing the virus, and one can see why most businesses are reluctant to “get back to normal.”

In the latest confirmation of just that, several other indicators have emerged showing that despite Xi’s stark demands for 1.4 billion Chinese to ignore the global pandemic which may very well have been started by one of China’s own experimental labs…

… virtually all of China – and all those critical supply chains that keep companies across the globe humming and stocked with critical inventory – remain on lockdown.

As confirmation, while we wait for an update from Morgan Stanley on the latest Chinese pollution data (at least until Beijing’s definition of “pollution” is also revised) here is JPMorgan showing that while traditionally daily coal consumption – the primary commodity used to keep China electrified – rebounds in the days following the Lunar New Year collapse when China hibernates for one week, this year there hasn’t been even a modest uptick higher, indicating that so far there hasn’t been even a modest uptick in output.

Yet electricity is just one core indicator of real-time economic activity. Perhaps an even more critical one is human transit across the 1.4 billion person strong nation. Conveniently there is a way to track rudimentary traffic patterns across some of China’s key metro areas, and they show that – in a confirmation of the worst-case scenario – activity, as measured by travel, across most of China appears to have ground to a halt.

The charts below show TomTom’s traffic congestion data across key Chinese cities such as Beijing, Shanghai and Wuhan as compared to the average measurement for 2019. What they show is that virtually nobody appears to be driving in China!

Here is Beijing’s congestion level over the past 48 hours (a 7 day average is also available) compared to 2019. The data indicates that travel is about 70% below its 2019 peak.

Similarly, Shanghai is about 60% below its peak:

Wuhan, of course, is even worse, with barely any congestion – or traffic – registering.

Amazingly, the industrial hub of Guanghzhou also appears to have ground to a crawl:

And as mainland China grinds to a literal halt, traffic in Hong Kong is also starting to slide…

… and surprisingly, even such major hubs of commerce as Singapore are starting to see a traffic impact.

By comparison, here is what Los Angeles traffic looks like over the past 48 hours vs 2019 average.

While not perfect, and certainly not a comprehensive view of what is really taking place “on the ground”, the above data is a useful real-time indicator of how the people in China perceive the threat of the coronavirus pandemic, and one thing is abundantly clear: as the pandemic spreads further without containment, and as the charts above flatline, so will China’s economy, which means that while Goldman’s draconian view of what happens to Q1 GDP is spot on, the expectation for a V-shaped recovery in Q2 and onward will vaporize faster than a vial of ultra-biohazardaous viruses in a Wuhan virology lab.

In Shocking Admission, WHO Advisor Says Coronavirus May Infect Over 5 Billion People

In yet another sign of the World Health Organization’s about-face on the coronavirus outbreak, a top epidemiologist and advisor to the organization said Thursday that if the virus isn’t contained soon, it could infect 60% of the global population – or more than 5 billion people – echoing projections made by a Hong Kong scientist who was once labeled an alarmist despite his pioneering work in the fight against SARS.

According to Bloomberg, that’s what WHO advisor Ira Longini said after finishing a study of the virus’s transmissibility. His estimates suggest that the virus could one day infect billions of people, far more than the ~60,000 or so cases as of earlier on Thursday.

If the virus truly has a mortality rate of 2% (around the low end of current estimates), at this rate, it would kill more than 100 million.

Of course, if the virus manages to spread so widely, it will unequivocally prove that China’s draconian quarantines weren’t effective enough, and that the government effectively set itself up for failure when it hesitated to try and contain the outbreak after it first emerged in Wuhan late last year.

Ira Longini

In recent days, Dr. Tedros, the WHO’s director-general, has warned that we might be seeing only “the tip of the iceberg” in terms of cases, and that a new rash of infections in Europe could lead to another widespread outbreak.

Longini based his numbers on an r-sub-zero of between 2 and 3, meaning that the average infected person will spread the virus to two or three other people.

In recent days, growing attention has been paid to the lack of reliable virus tests, not just in China, but in virtually all countries where the virus has spread. The difficulties in diagnosing the virus could mean we see another sudden surge of cases – but this time, it could be even larger than last night’s dump from officials in Hubei.

Even if we could find a way to reduce the virus’s ability to spread by half, it would could still wind up infecting more than 2 billion people.

“Unless the transmissibility changes, surveillance and containment can only work so well,” Longini, co-director of the Center for Statistics and Quantitative Infectious Diseases at the University of Florida, said in an interview at WHO headquarters in Geneva. “Isolating cases and quarantining contacts is not going to stop this virus.”

Longini, a researcher and scientist who has spent his entire career focusing on infectious diseases, is hardly the only scientist making dire warnings.

Neil Ferguson, a researcher at Imperial College London, estimated that as many as 50,000 people may be infected each day in China, and more recently warned that we could still be in the “preliminary stages” of the outbreak.

Even Dr. Feigl Ding is finding that the public is taking his warnings seriously after he was branded as an alarmist.

As always, other scientists warned that the situation is in flux, and readers should take these findings with a grain of salt before they panic.

The estimates of spread are part of a spectrum of possibilities that could unfold as the epidemic progresses, said Alessandro Vespignani, a biostatistician at Northeastern University in Boston. The next few weeks may provide more information about how easily the disease spreads outside China, particularly if more measures are put in place to control it, he said.

“People change behaviors” in response to disease, he said. “This is kind of a worst-case scenario. It’s one of the possibilities.”

But as Dr. Tedros said earlier this week, it’s still early days. And if Beijing doesn’t start being a little more honest with the international community, we might not be able to take the necessary steps to combat the spread until it’s too late.

end

HONG KONG/

Business must be good in Hong Kong. Trouble for HSBC..Mall owner cuts rents up to 50%

(zerohedge)

Hong Kong’s Largest Mall Owner Cuts Rents Up To 50%

Commenting on the regional impact of the Covid-2019 epidemic, Morgan Stanley writes that Hong Kong’s tourism, trade and domestic consumption could be significantly affected, further aggravating the technical recession the financial hub found itself going into 2020.

Looking ahead, MS lays out two scenarios: should the outbreak peak in February/March with swift normalization of economic activity (Scenario 1), the bank estimates a 1-2% drag on 1Q GDP growth, meaning the recession started by Hong Kong’s protests will likely extend for one more quarter, but the impact could be larger at 2-4% if existing travel restrictions stay for longer and the production normalization process is slow in mainland China (Scenario 2). In the worst-case scenario 3, where the outbreak lasts for months, the impact on growth could reach 3-4.5% in 1H.

As such, Morgan Stanley remains cautious on the local stock market (the Hang Seng Index) and keeps MSCI HK Underweight given their sizeable revenue exposure to the local Hong Kong market (19% for Hang Seng and 50% for MSCI HK), and see greater near-term pressure for Banks and Retail than Telecom, Insurance and Macau Gaming.

One sector where Morgan Stanley is especially concerned is retail property, as landlords are especially vulnerable to the Coronavius impact, which would further dampen already weakened retail sales.

Confirming Morgan Stanley’s concern that a bloodbath is coming to the retail sector, earlier today Reuters reported that some shopping mall landlords in Hong Kong, including Sun Hung Kai Properties, the city’s largest property developer, are offering relief measures such as rental concession to their tenants during the coronavirus outbreak.

Sun Hung Kai Properties, which owns major malls in some of the local districts that host international fashion brands ranging from Coach to Zara, said on Wednesday it would reduce February rent by up to 50% for most of its tenants, in an effort to stabilize economy and protect employment.

Separately, MTR Corp, which runs malls on top some of its subway stations, said it will adjust rent for small-medium companies, and after collecting the sales data of its international tenants, it will launch relief measures for them too.

Link Real Estate Investment Trust, whose tenants are mostly small to medium businesses, also said it has set up a HK$80 million relief scheme, which includes allowing rent payment in installments, waiving late payment interest and service charges, granting rent-free periods and reducing rents.

In short, Hong Kong’s retail sector, already battered by months of often violent anti-government protests, which has already sent retail sales into a worse contraction than during the financial crisis and China’s 2015/2016 market crash and devaluation…

… is on the verge of collapse with following the coronavirus outbreak in mainland China, which has emptied shopping centres and closed down tourist attractions, and will likely push countless CRE developers to the verge of bankruptcy.

END

Bill Blain’s take on the Covid 19

(Bill Blain)

Blain: “Virus Vs Markets: I Think The Music Just Stopped”

Blain’s Morning Porridge, submitted by Bill Blain

Jaguar earlobes! Wolf nipple chips, get em while they’re hot.. Dromedary pretzels, only half a dinar. Tuscany Fried Bat.. ”

On the train this morning – someone started coughing and the whole carriage went quiet. People started moving further down the train.

The objective of the Morning Porridge is to alert readers on the likely market effects of events.

The big news this morning is the complete reversal of the story the infection rate on the Covid19 virus was slowing. The sudden 15k rocket in infections is apparently due to new guidelines on how to record it, but the largest daily death toll – thus far – confirms this is the most serious pandemic in decades, dwarfing SARS in scale and speed. SARS caused a massive economic and market hit. We’re concerned about the rising mortality and the timing delays, and mismatch with the number of cured patients. Keep an eye on this page: COVID-1 by John Hopkins CSSE. The rising ratio between deaths and infections in Hubei far exceeds the very low ratio we’re currently seeing in Covid19 cases elsewhere – that should be ringing alarm bells.

But we’re not here to talk about medical issues. Go scare yourself watching the BBC or Netflix documentaries on Epidemics if that will help.

The Coronavirus is now moving into the clear and visible economic damage stage:

DBS in Singapore is unlikely to be the only bank that locks the doors to the Trading Floor for a deep clean. Oil prices have fallen.
The rising infection rate on the quarantined cruise ship will force governments to back stringent and damaging containment measures, making economic slowdown inevitable.
The cancellation of events like a global wireless conference (city-break bargains in Barcelona later this month?), casinos warning of slowdown in Macao and Las Vegas, the Hong Kong Sevens being postponed, and the empty Singapore airshow, confirm massive global damage to the travel sector.

Go figure how a travel slowdown impacts everything from plane makers to global supply chains.

All we can do is grin and bear it – hoping that Donald Trump’s assurances it will go away in April when the weather gets warmer come good. Hope is never a strategy. I think I shall wait for the scientists to opine…

But the science is worrying. Although the WHO has been praising China for its efforts and openness, – something has been awry about the numbers since the start. The early efforts of Chinese local authorities to downplay the contagion, and to scale back its scope are feeding a host of conspiracy theories. I reckon we are still two weeks behind the virus truth due to China delays.

The fact US teams are being “slowed” from accessing “ground zero” hint the Party is embarrassed and may still be hiding something. Incompetence has already claimed a number of heads, but what else aren’t we being told? How far up the Party structure will the blame game go? A quick glance at some of the more speculative new sites highlights speculation about mass graves, soaring death rates, and the inevitable Zombie invasion of re-animated plague victims. (I made the last bit up..)

I’m not a medical expert – but I’ve got the experience to spot an economic shock hitting markets. This is not speculation about a virus that might be slightly worse than the flu. This is about economic damage.

The fact stocks and bonds have pretty much discounted Covid19 has been the action of a market high to the rafters on bubbles, implausible valuations and the expectation central banks will do anything to support markets.

I think the music just stopped.

And back in the markets…

Sorry for lack of morning Porridge yesterday. It was going to be a stunning and insightful explanation of why buying the new Deutsche Bank tier 1 CoCo is a no-brainer despite it being, probably, the worst bank in the world. The thesis is simple: the Germans can’t let it go. They can’t let it fail. Although DB now counts as tiny bank by market cap – its so systemically important to Germany’s self-delusion the deal was gift.

Instead I shall share an article by Marcus Ashworth on the bond on BBerg: Deutsche Bank is Allowed back into the High-Risk Club.

But trying to write such a blindingly brilliant piece on the economics and market value of failing banks on a packed late train y’day presented difficulties. And to cap it all I nearly got into a fight trying to help my wife off the train as a bunch of what I think were Chinese students decided to barge their way on as passengers got off and she struggled on crutches and a surgical boot. (Nicky snapped her Achilles Tendon in a ski tumble last week.) I remonstrated with them and got a challenging death stare back.

Instead of writing the porridge, I ended up writing a very angry letter to my MP. If your train travel is as pants as mine, you can find it on the Porridge Website: A letter to Paul Homes, MP.

end

Michael Every with his take on the Covid 19 virus

(Michale Every)

Rabobank: “The Quants Who Were Merrily Looking At The Decline In New Virus Cases Woke Up To A Shock”

Submitted by Michael Every of Rabobank

Outbreak Data Break Out

Yesterday we warned “Curb your enthusiasm”, and all week we have been warning that the markets were totally out of line with the fat tail risks that this Covid-19 virus was presenting. Especially so when all of us are relying on data from China to try to accurately track this outbreak. Those market quants who have been merrily looking at the recent decline in the day-to-day new virus cases woke to a shock this morning. Hubei province has revised its definition of a virus infection and the total is a stunning leap: we now have 15,408 new cases in one day, dwarfing what we have seen so far in a week. Presumably some of that is a catch-up, but even so it takes us back to an exponential upwards trend in total cases just due to Hubei. Yet the virus classification in the rest of China remains unclear, as asymptomatic patients were apparently to be officially excluded since a few days ago. Indeed, full transparency is something we do not have at all. What we do have is *officially* 60,329 sick people. Moreover we had 235 deaths in just one day, taking us up to 1,369 vs. 6,017 recovered. That’s an 18.5% fatality rate if one looks at that ratio, and a ‘Spanish Flu’ 2.2% if one looks at total cases, if they are now accurate. This is, of course, presuming that the *deaths* data are also accurate and not being attributed to other causes, as some have alleged.

The firing of the health chiefs and the top Communist party boss in Hubei in the last 24 hours certainly show Beijing’s unhappiness, and all have been replaced by figures close to Party Chairman Xi Jinping. (The Hong Kong and Macau representative was also just fired, so changes all round it seems.) Presumably the new local bosses have the remit to blame the mess on their predecessors and try to bring the awful new cases number straight back down again to try to calm citizens (and markets). The virus may have its own dynamic, but some kinds of politics—and market stupidity—are universal.

Indeed, for those in markets who were telling themselves that a return to business as usual in China was imminent, and there were lots of them, we have one unconfirmed report (on Twitter, which is not the most reliable, of course!) of a firm in Suzhou that: reopened; 200 employees turned up as requested; one was found to have Covid-19; and all 200 employees were then quarantined in the building for 14 days. As I said, unconfirmed – but so were suggestions that the virus numbers were far higher than being reported until today. Importantly, this anecdote, not data-point, does also underline the risks involved in rushing back to work to try to double GDP by 2021 when the virus is happily doubling its footprint much faster than that.

The mood in the West also seems to be shifting, with UK media in particular now talking on the front page of virus risks, and when, not if, we will see a further spread of the virus there. Not something BoJo’s Bouncy Brexit Britain wants to have to experience. I very much doubt there will be any hospitals being built in six days given the “high-speed” rail isn’t arriving until nearer to mid-century.

Naturally, we are finally seeing a risk-off mood in markets this morning, with Asian stocks coming off, US 10-yer yields down around 4bp to 1.60%, and JPY moving higher again (although USD will remain in demand too vs. both EM FX and EUR, it seems). Let’s see how long this lasts before ‘all is well’ again for some reason.

Meanwhile, talking of accurate reporting of events, I notice that nowhere immediately evident do we have Bloomberg news reporting that friendly neighbourhood billionaire and Democratic Party presidential nominee Mike Bloomberg was heckled at his campaign rally yesterday: one woman at the front cried out “Bloomberg is trying to buy this election! That is not democracy! That is plutocracy!” That is also not news, apparently. Sadly, it is certainly not dog-bites-man stuff either – or even virus-infects-man.

end

MAIL: ROBERT TO ME: COVID 19

Killer coronavirus outbreak is ‘just getting started’ outside of China and will strike EVERY country on the planet, warns infectious diseases expert

Dale Fisher, chair of the Global Outbreak Alert Response Network at the WHO, said he’s ‘pretty confident’ that every country in the world will report infections in the coming months.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-7995343/Coronavirus-outbreak-just-beginning-outside-China-says-expert.html?ito=email_share_article-top

Its starting to look messy. We are getting new Intel from China showing many thousands dying… not the cover up lies.

Effective all Doctors surgeries need to turn away mindless Cretins with coughs and flue and tell them protected suit home visits only. Fools aren’t worth dying for or spreading it. And until there is vaccine there is no good reason to destroy the health care system we have, because to do so is at our own expense.

Tough love time, save a life and infect Doctors and Nurses! What about pharmacies where people will turn to for advice? Should they have special workwear protection? In China the outbreaks are now causing major issues in hospitals, with personnel falling ill.

Signs will be up everywhere soon., Coughs and Flu, no admittance! Wait until you have to get your temperature tested to enter a office building or condo. Any place that has communal air circulation becomes a potential source of infection. The fallout from this will be astronomical as illness and fear combine to discourage communal contact.

END

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

UK/CHANCELLOR JAVID SACKED

Johnson sacks Chancellor Javid in his latest cabinet reshuffle

(zerohedge)

Cables Climbs As Boris Sacks Chancellor Javid In Latest ‘Cabinet Reshuffle’ Twist

UK Chancellor Sajid Javid was ousted on Thursday after choosing to resign instead of firing a group of advisors that the prime minister wanted sacked, according to the FT.

According to the British financial paper of record, Javid, a one-time contender for the conservative leadership, has been engaged in a “briefing war with Downing Street in recent weeks over who will be responsible for writing the upcoming budget.”

Rishi Sunak, the Treasury chief secretary who stood in for PM Boris Johnson during the general campaign’s televised debates has been picked to succeed Javid. Sunak (a former Goldman employee) has apparently agreed to a joint pool of advisors between No. 10 and the office of the Chancellor.

For Americans who aren’t as familiar with the British system, the Chancellor is roughly equivalent to the Treasury Secretary in the British government’s sprawling cabinet, which includes senior and junior members.

Javid

Javid’s sacking is something of an unexpected twist in what was supposed to be a ‘modest’ cabinet reshuffle. Johnson recently sacked Northern Ireland Secretary Julian Smith, Business Secretary Andrea Leadsom, Environment Secretary Theresa Villiers, AG Geoffrey Cox, Housing Minister Esther McVey, Universities and Sciences Minister Chris Skidmore and Transport Ministers Nusrat Ghani and George Freeman (for what it’s worth, most of these names are second-tier positions who are relatively inconsequential: Leadsom and Smith were the big ones).

Cable is soaring on the news, the latest sign that traders have no idea how to interpret any of the news coming out of Whitehall and Westminster (and even Brussels) as the UK and EU scramble to strike a new trade deal by the end of the year.

END

GERMANY/USA/HUAWEI

(zerohedge)

Washington Weighs Another Crackdown As Germany Reportedly Plans To Snub US And Side With Huawei

One day after the Pentagon and, by extension, the White House sent an unmistakable warning to the UK, Germany, the rest of America’s European allies and – most importantly – Huawei and the Chinese regime, it appears the Pentagon is already moving to make it much more difficult for American manufacturers to sell their products to Huawei.

Last summer, the Trump Administration loosened restrictions on Huawei stemming from the Commerce Department’s decision – made earlier in the year – to add Huawei to a “black last” barring American firms from selling their products to the company. The company has technically remained on the blacklist, but the export ban was, for the most part, not enforced (Commerce only intervened if it was a matter of important national security).

The decision comes not long after the UK decided to allow Huawei parts in “non-core” elements of its national 5G network.

But according to Politico, the Trump Administration and the Pentagon are conspiring once again to tighten the screws on the Chinese telecom behemoth. A meeting to discuss the proposed policy change is reportedly being held on Wednesday, and will include a smattering of cabinet members and other administration officials.

Pentagon undersecretary of policy John Rood is reportedly overseeing the new policy, and has overruled concerns about potential blowback to American semiconductor firms.

The Defense Department’s undersecretary for policy, John Rood, has overruled those concerns, the people said.
Defense and Commerce did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

U.S. semiconductor companies found other ways around the blacklisting, including supplying Huawei through subsidiaries or partners in foreign countries.

Currently, a foreign-produced good that contains 25 percent U.S.-origin content can be exported to a company on the entity list. The Commerce rule would cut that threshold down to 10 percent for any goods exported to Huawei or its in-house semiconductor business HiSilicon.

Politico doesn’t go into great detail on the policy, but it does say that it would reduce the threshold for companies on the Commerce Department’s “entities list” – that is, the blacklist. Under current rules, they can buy products that contain up to 25% American-made components. The new rule would lower that threshold to 10%.

The Commerce Department reportedly withdrew the plan at some point in the not-too-distant past because of these objections.

Further restricting sales of American made components and products to Huawei might hurt American tech firms and ultimately give China an advantage as the two countries battle for the best chip technology. But cutting Huawei off from the American market would create serious complications for the companies supply chain.

If anything, it shows us that Washington believes protecting the Five Eyes Intelligence Alliance – the intelligence-sharing pact between the US, UK, Canada, Australia and New Zealand – might be worth destabilizing trade relations with Beijing and allowing American semiconductor producers to take a serious shellacking.

Most importantly, readers should remember that this report follows a series of reports yesterday claiming the German legislature is on track to follow the UK – and its conservative Trump ally leader PM Boris Johnson – and reject Washington’s arguments about Huawei being a national security threat.

END

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

6.Global Issues

7. OIL ISSUES

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings THURSDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.0855 DOWN .0020 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS /COVID 19//AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /RED

USA/JAPAN YEN 109.68 DOWN 0.184 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.3022 UP 0.0063 (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/

USA/CAN 1.3263 UP .0007 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS THURSDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL BY 20 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.0855 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 20.83 POINTS OR 0.71%

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 93.66 POINTS OR 0.34%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0,27%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 93.66 POINTS OR 0.34%

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 20.83 POINTS OR 0.71%

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP. 27%

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 33.48 POINTS OR 0.14%

INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1573.90

silver:$17.64-

Early THURSDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 1.59% !!! DOWN 4 IN POINTS from WEDNESDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

The 30 yr bond yield 2.06 DOWN 3 IN BASIS POINTS from WEDNESDAY night.

USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 99.02 DOWN 3 CENT(S) from WEDNESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers THURSDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing THURSDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.29% DOWN 2 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.04% UP 1 BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.29%//DOWN 2 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:0.89 DOWN 2 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 60 points higher than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.39% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.28% AND NOW ABOVE THE THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR THURSDAY

Closing currency crosses for THURSDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0852 DOWN .0024 or 24 basis points

USA/Japan: 109.82 DOWN .048 OR YEN UP 5 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3050 UP .0093 POUND UP 93 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 2 basis points to 1.3258

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 6.9772 ON SHORE (DOWN)..

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: 6.9828 (YUAN DOWN)..

TURKISH LIRA: 6.0390 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.04%

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 2 IN basis points from WEDNESDAY at 1.61 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.07 DOWN 2 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 99.02 DOWN 3 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for THURSDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 49.38 OR 1.25%

German Dax : CLOSED DOWN 33.75 POINTS OR .25%

Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 28.43 POINTS 0.47%

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 55.20 POINTS or 0.56%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 11.64 POINTS OR 0.05%

WTI Oil price; 56.39 12:00 PM EST

Brent Oil: 51.49 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN / RUBLE FALLS: 63.38 THE CROSS HIGHER BY 0.15 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE LOWER BY 15 BASIS PTS)

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS TO –.39 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM : 51.57//

BRENT : 56.25

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 1.62…down 2 basis points….

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.07..down 2 basis pts.

EURO/USA 1.0839 ( DOWN 37 BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:109.81 DOWN .057 (YEN UP 6 BASIS POINTS/..

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 99.09 UP 5 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm Britain Pound/USA:1.3045 UP 87 POINTS

the Turkish lira close: 6.0414

the Russian rouble 63.67 DOWN 0.44 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( DOWN 44 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar: 1.3263 DOWN 7 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) : 6.9772 (ONSHORE)/

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 6.9903 (OFFSHORE)

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.38%

The Dow closed DOWN 128.11 POINTS OR 0.43%

NASDAQ closed DOWN 13.99 POINTS OR 0.14%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 14.26 CLOSED UP .52

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 1.703%//libor dropping like a stone

USA trading today in Graph Form

Fed Liquidity Drain Spoils Virus-Surge-Inspired Stock Buying-Panic

The US equity market has gone full-Rick-Astley…

And everyone knows you should never go full-Rick-Astley.

So this happened overnight…

And while futures reacted (somewhat rationally to start with), the US open sparked yet another buying panic to erase all those losses… Until, that is, The Fed pooped in the punchbowl and announced a reduction in its daily liquidity bailouts…

China ended lower overnight, closing before the American investor panic lifted everything else…

Source: Bloomberg

European markets closed very modestly lower thanks to a buying-panic starting around 630amET…

Source: Bloomberg

The Dow was actually the worst performer today, Small Caps best… but the shine was taken off the ramp as The Fed signaled a reduction in its repo liquidity bailout…

The S&P 500 is at its highest relative to the 200DMA ever…

Source: Bloomberg

Today’s price action was dominated by a bid for defensives with cyclicals lower…

Source: Bloomberg

TSLA shares were down overnight after a major recall and news of a secondary offering… but that didn’t last long as the machines BTFD with both hands and feet…

As Bloomberg notes, this is the fifth straight time the market has reacted positively to a Tesla stock offering, despite the near-term harm these sales can cause by diluting the value of existing shares.

AMZN was up and MSFT down after a judge ordered JEDI contract development halted…

Credit spreads have compressed back to pre-Covid-19 levels but VIX remains higher…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields were lower on the day – despite the stock market buying-panic…

Source: Bloomberg

30Y Yields were down around 2bps after the 30Y auction went off at record low yields…

Source: Bloomberg

The yield curve flattened further today…

Source: Bloomberg

Meanwhile in Greece… 10Y GGB yields broke below 1.00% for the first time ever..!!!!

Source: Bloomberg

The Dollar was bid during the US session for the 9th straight day…

Source: Bloomberg

Yuan faded notably, totally decoupling from US stocks at the cash open…

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos had a wild ride today…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin tagged $10,500 3 times in the last 36 hours…

Source: Bloomberg

Is crypto bid as negative-yielding debt forces investors out of bonds?

Source: Bloomberg

Copper managed gains today,. along with PMs as oil prices chopped around…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold prices held on to their China-death-surge gains…

Copper bounced but hit resistance…

Finally, this just continues to blow our minds… When The Fed gushed emergency liquidity to paper over any anxiety cracks around Y2K, it created the same meltup as is occurring now… and did not end well…

Source: Bloomberg

Looks like Nasdaq 10k is inevitable and then its down down down.

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

Inflation i.e. consumer price inflation is much hotter than expected..we also have goods deflation

(zerohedge)

Consumer Price Inflation Hotter Than Expected Despite Goods Deflation

After jumping in December, analysts expected a modest acceleration in headline consumer prices and small slowdown in core prices, but the headline CPI printed hotter than expected at +2.5% YoY (despite only rising 0.1% MoM) – that is the hottest since oct 2018.

Source: Bloomberg

Under the hood, Energy commodities and Used Car prices slowed while Apparel and Energy Utilities rose the most…

The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.2 percent in January, after rising 0.1 percent in December. The shelter index rose 0.4 percent in January, with the rent index increasing 0.4 percent and the owners’ equivalent rent index rising 0.3 percent.

The medical care index rose 0.2 percent in January, with the index for hospital services increasing 0.8 percent. However, the index for physicians’ services fell 0.4 percent, and the index for prescription drugs also declined 0.4 percent over the month.

The apparel index rose 0.7 percent in January following a 0.1-percent increase in December. The recreation index increased 0.3 percent over the month, as did the education index. The index for personal care advanced 0.7 percent in January after feclining 0.2 percent the previous month. The airline fares index rose 0.7 percent, after declining in each of the 3 previous months. The index for new vehicles was unchanged in January.

The index for used cars and trucks continued to decline, decreasing 1.2 percent in January after falling 0.4 percent in December. The index for motor vehicle insurance fell 0.2 percent in January. The index for household furnishings and operations also declined in January, decreasing 0.1 percent.

From the top-down, Services inflation is running at +3.1% YoY (the last time it was hotter was August 2016) while goods prices are deflating YoY…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally we note that Real Average Weekly Earnings are flat year-over-year…

Source: Bloomberg

So take your pick Jay Powell.

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

This lack of liquidity is getting worse: The Fed injects another 79 billion dollars into the Termo repo pool; the most oversubscribed since the repo crisis began in Sept

(zerohedge)

Fed Injects $79BN In Liquidity: Term Repo Most Oversubscribed Since Repo Crisis

The repo market was supposed to be fixed in September; then the year-end liquidity flood was supposed to definitely fix the repo market. But it is now mid-February and moments ago the Fed just reported it conducted the fourth oversubscribed term-repo operation as the liquidity shortage among dealers appears to persist.

This means, that at a submitted to accepted ratio just shy of 2.0x, this was tied for the most oversusbcribed term repo operation since the September repo crisis as there clearly remains a big hole in dealer liquidity.

And confirming that liquidity indeed remains quite scarce a month and a half after year-end, moments ago the Fed also conducted its overnight repo which saw $48.85BN in liquidity injected…

… and which together with the oversubscribed $30BN term repo conducted earlier, means the Fed has injected $79BN in liquidity for today’s market needs.

Ominously, the ongoing excess demand for term repo (which in February was cut by $5BN from $35BN to $30BN, and later today will be cut by another $5 billion or so when the Fed releases its upcoming monthly repo schedule) means that the liquidity crisis that continues to percolate just below the surface of the market and has clogged up the critical plumbing within the US financial system, is getting worse, not better, and today’s massive oversubscription indicates that one or more entities continues to face a dire shortage of reserves, i.e., cash

END

This should be fun for our bankers: The Fed next week begins to taper its overnight and term repos by 20 billion and 10 billion dollars respectively. March will still see a positive flow into the Fed. The problem will occur past April as these guys continue to be hooked on this money

(zerohedge)

Liquidity Warning: Fed Shrinks Overnight Repos By $20BN, Term Repos By $10BN

With everyone (grudgingly or otherwise) now admitting that the Fed’s repo and QE4 was responsible for the miraculous surge in stocks since the start of Q4 2019 (with the occasional exception of a handful of idiots), traders were especially focused on today’s latest release of the next monthly schedule of repo operations to see if the Fed would, as Powell hinted before Congress, continue shrinking reducing the liquidity injection via repo. And sure enough, that’s precisely what happened when the NY Fed announced that starting next week, the term repo, which this month dropped from a max of $35BN to $30BN, would be reduced by another $5 billion to $25 billion and that starting in March, term repos would be reduced by another $5 billion to just $20BN.

Additionally, as shown in the latest schedule below, the New York Fed announced that the maximum size of overnight repos would also shrink from the prior limit of $120 billion, to $100 billion, resulting in a substantial decline in the maximum available liquidity at a time when the fed’s last four term report have already been 2x oversubscribed.

Then again, on net the total liquidity will actually increase as in March the Fed will inject at least another $60BN in liquidity via T-Bill monetizations courtsy of “NOT QE 4”, and then another $60BN in April, and so on. In other words, while a modest repo shrinkage continues, this will be more than offset by permanent open market operations which will see the Fed continuing to grow its balance sheet, in the words of UBS, “indefinitely.”

Subprime auto loans explode coupled with serious delinquencies

(Wolf Richter)

Subprime Auto Loans Explode, “Serious Delinquencies” Spike To Record

Authored by Wolf Richter via WolfStreet.com,

Nearly a quarter of all subprime auto loans are 90+ days delinquent. Why?

Auto loan and lease balances have surged to a new record of $1.33 trillion. Delinquencies of auto loans to borrowers with prime credit rates hover near historic lows. But subprime loans (borrowers with a credit score below 620) are exploding at a breath-taking rate, and they’re driving up the overall delinquency rates to Financial Crisis levels. Yet, these are the good times, and there is no employment crisis where millions of people have lost their jobs.

All combined, prime and subprime auto-loan delinquencies that are 90 days or more past due – “serious” delinquencies – in the fourth quarter 2019, surged by 15.5% from a year ago to a breath-taking historic high of $66 billion, according to data from the New York Fed released today:

Loan delinquencies are a flow. Fresh delinquencies that hit lenders go into the 30-day basket, then a month later into the 60-day basket, and then into the 90-day basket, and as they move from one stage to the next, more delinquencies come in behind them. When the delinquency cannot be cured, lenders hire a company to repossess the vehicle. Finding the vehicle is generally a breeze with modern technology. The vehicle is then sold at auction, a fluid and routine process.

These delinquent loans hit the lenders’ balance sheet and income statement in stages. In the end, the combined loss for the lender is the amount of the loan balance plus expenses minus the amount obtained at auction. On new vehicles that were financed with a loan-to-value ratio of 120% or perhaps higher, losses can easily reach 40% or more of the loan balance. On a 10-year old vehicle, losses are much smaller.

As these delinquent loans make their way through the system and are written off and disappear from the balance sheet, lenders are making new loans to risky customers, and a portion of those loans will become delinquent in the future. This creates that flow of delinquent loans. But that flow has turned into a torrent.

Seriously delinquent auto loans jumped to 4.94% of the $1.33 trillion in total loans and leases outstanding, above where the delinquency rate had been in Q3 2010 as the auto industry was collapsing, with GM and Chrysler already in bankruptcy, and with the worst unemployment crisis since the Great Depression approaching its peak. But this time, there is no unemployment crisis; these are the good times:

About 22% of the $1.33 trillion in auto loans outstanding are subprime, so about $293 billion are subprime. Of them, $68 billion are 90+ days delinquent. This means that about 23% of all subprime auto loans are seriously delinquent. Nearly a quarter!

Subprime auto loans are often packaged into asset-backed securities (ABS) and shuffled off to institutional investors, such as pension funds. These securities have tranches ranging from low-rated or not-rated tranches that take the first loss to double-A or triple-A rated tranches that are protected by the lower rated tranches and generally don’t take losses unless a major fiasco is happening. Yields vary: the riskiest tranches that take the first lost offer the highest yields and the highest risk; the highest-rated tranches offer the lowest yields.

These subprime auto-loan ABS are now experiencing record delinquency rates. Delinquency rates are highly seasonal, as the chart below shows. In January, the subprime 60+ day delinquency rate for the auto-loan ABS rated by Fitch rose to 5.83%, according to Fitch Ratings, the highest rate for any January ever, the third highest rate for any month, and far higher than any delinquency rate during the Financial Crisis:

But prime auto loans (blue line in the chart) are experiencing historically low delinquency rates.

Why are subprime delinquencies surging like this?

It’s not the economy. That will come later when the employment cycle turns and people lose their jobs. And those delinquencies due to job losses will be on top of what we’re seeing now.

It’s how aggressive the subprime lending industry has gotten, and how they’ve been able to securitize these loans and selling the ABS into heavy demand from investors who have gotten beaten up by negative-interest-rate and low-interest-rate policies of central banks. These investors have been madly chasing yield. And their demand for subprime-auto-loan ABS has fueled the subprime lending business.

Subprime is a very profitable business because interest rates range from high to usurious, and customers with this credit rating know that they have few options and don’t negotiate. Often, they might not do the math of what they can realistically afford to pay every month; and why should they if the dealer puts them in a vehicle, and all they have to do is sign the dotted line?

So profit margins for dealers, lenders, and Wall Street are lusciously and enticingly fat.

Subprime lending is a legitimate business. In the corporate world, the equivalent is high-yield bonds (junk bonds) and leveraged loans. Netflix and Tesla belong in that category. The captive lenders, such as Ford Motor Credit, GM Financial, Toyota Financial Services, etc., or credit unions, take some risks with subprime rated customers but generally don’t go overboard.

The most aggressive in this sector are lenders that specialize in subprime lending. These lenders include Santander Consumer USA, Credit Acceptance Corporation, and many smaller private-equity backed subprime lenders specializing in auto loans. Some sell vehicles, originate the loans, and either sell the loans to banks or securitize the loans into ABS.

And they eat some of the losses as they retain some of the lower-rated tranches of the ABS. Some banks are exposed to these smaller lenders via their credit lines. The remaining losses are spread around the world via securitizations. This isn’t going to take down the banking system though a few smaller specialized lenders have already collapsed.

But demand for subprime auto loan ABS remains high. And as long as there is demand from investors for the ABS, there will be supply, and losses will continue to get scattered around until a decline in investor demand imposes some discipline.

* * *

Enjoy reading WOLF STREET and want to support it? Using ad blockers – I totally get why – but want to support the site? You can donate. I appreciate it immensely.

end

USA/CHINA/HUAWEI

USA continues its crackdown on Huawei as they add racketeering conspiracy charges against the company.

(zerohedge)

US Continues Crackdown On Huawei, Adds Racketeering Conspiracy Charge

One would think that with the US and China now in a trade war truce, tensions over the key pawn in the global tech war, China’s telecom giant Huawei would finally be easing. One would be wrong.

According to Bloomberg, as part of the ongoing crackdown on Huawei, the US has now added a charge of racketeering conspiracy against the Chinese telecom provider – which in the past was reserved largely for criminal mob cases – in the process increasing the penalties the Chinese company would face if convicted.

Huawei was already facing a series of criminal charges for allegedly violating U.S. sanctions against Iran and North Korea.
The new charge steps up U.S. pressure on Huawei. The government already had banned the company’s technology and accused Huawei of aiding Beijing in espionage. Now the company faces even more significant criminal penalties, which could be up to 3x the sought damages, if prosecutors win a conviction in federal court in Brooklyn, New York.

In return, Huawei has accused the U.S. government of orchestrating a campaign to intimidate its employees and launching cyberattacks to infiltrate its internal network. The accusations have ratcheted up tensions between Huawei and the Trump administration.

Meanwhile, as Bloomberg reminds us, as the criminal case against Huawei moves forward, the prosecution of its chief financial officer, Meng Wanzhou, remains on hold. She is fighting extradition from Vancouver, Canada, after being arrested at the request of the U.S. last year. She was accused by the US of defrauding banks when she made a presentation to one of its major banking partners and lied about by lying Huawei’s business dealings in Iran, in violation of U.S. sanctions.

iv) Swamp commentaries)

Biden donors panic after the former Vice president is beaten badly in New Hampshire

(zerohedge)

Biden Donors Panic After Former VP Beaten Like A Drum

Panic has set in among some of Joe Biden’s largest donors, who fear the former Vice President may not be able to raise enough cash to continue on in the Democratic presidential primary race following dismal 4th and 5th place showings in the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary – and failing to reach the 15% threshold to pick up any delegates in the latter.

According to CNBC, some Biden bundlers say that members in their donor networks are calling to express concerns that Biden’s flop in New Hampshire looks like an ‘insurmountable hurdle.’

Other Biden supporters have shrugged off his devastating losses in recent weeks – insisting that people should wait to see what happens during the Feb 22. Nevada caucus and the Feb. 29 South Carolina primary.

Biden has lost ground among donors and voters. Buttigieg’s surge in Iowa has led to a bunch of previously undecided business executives to head toward his camp. Since Iowa, Biden has seen a drop in polls nationally. Sanders has overtaken him in the Real Clear Politics polling average.

One of the disappointed Biden fundraisers, who has known the former vice president for over a decade, said that failure in New Hampshire could indicate that disaster awaits Biden on Super Tuesday, which takes place March 3. More than a dozen states, including big prizes like Texas and California, hold their primaries that day. –CNBC

“Even if we stay active for the next two races after another big loss, I suspect the remaining air will leak out of the balloon before Super Tuesday,” said the Biden fundraiser late Tuesday, after the full extent of the drum beating in New Hampshire began rolling in Tuesday night.

Meanwhile, the former VP’s poll numbers are in free-fall, while Sanders, Bloomberg and Buttigieg have all staged respectable gains in recent weeks:

The Biden camp is holding out hope for South Carolina, which has a much larger black population than New Hampshire and Iowa – as the former VP has the most support among black voters of anyone running in 2020. According to CNBC, however, Bloomberg and Sanders are making gains among minorities.

New York Biden fundraiser Charles Myers, founder of Signum Global Advisers who is co-hosting an upcoming fundraising event, says he hasn’t seen any negative impact from the last two weeks.

“It hasn’t had any real effect on fundraising for the two events here in New York on Thursday. We’ve had a very strong response for both events,” said Myers, adding “As far as I can see in my network, there’s been no impact on fundraising.”

Another Biden donor, who asked not to be named due to the sensitivity of the subject, said financiers didn’t expect Biden to win Iowa and New Hampshire – and that he’s in a strong position to pick up delegates in South Carolina.

“Biden is well positioned to move on to the more diverse states of Nevada and South Carolina, and have strong showings in both,” this person said. -CNBC

Perhaps they’re still reeling from the shock of the Democratic frontrunner’s precipitous swan dive into political oblivion.

END

Are these guys for real: all of that FBI misconduct does not count according to this district attorney: asks the court to ignore the Flynn bid to toss the case. It will never work

(zerohedge)

Nevermind All That FBI Misconduct’: Mueller Attack-Dog Asks Court To Ignore Flynn Bid To Toss Case

One of special counsel Robert Mueller’s former prosecutors, Brandon Van Grack, argued in a Wednesday filing that the case against Michael Flynn should not be dismissed in light of “egregious government misconduct,” because the FBI’s extensive FISA abuse uncovered by the DOJ’s Inspector General “have no relevance to his false statements to the FBI on January 24, 2017.”

“Beyond failing to identify misconduct that satisfies the legal test cited in his own brief — that the misconduct be ‘so grossly shocking and so outrageous as to violate the universal sense of justice’ — the defendant fails to identify any government misconduct in this case,” Van Grack continues.

Except – Flynn attorney Sidney Powell says the FBI excluded crucial information from his ‘302’ form – the original draft of which stated that Flynn was honest with the FBI agents who interviewed him (one of whom was Peter Strzok).

The prosecution filing also argues that a slew of failures that the Justice Department’s inspector general found in the FBI’s handling of surveillance applications merit serious attention but that the faults involved Carter Page, a Trump 2016 foreign policy adviser, and not Flynn.

“The government does not dispute the seriousness of the ‘significant errors and omissions’ described in the Report,” Van Grack wrote. “But the compliance and diligence failures and ‘significant errors’ as they relate to the Page FISA applications do not warrant or necessitate the dismissal of the charge against the defendant.” –Politico

In short – failings by the the same cabal within the FBI that handled the Clinton email investigation, the Trump investigation, and the offshoot investigations (Flynn, Stone, etc.) – don’t matter.

Flynn pleaded guilty in late 2017 to one felony charge of making false statements to the FBI during an impromptu interview held four days after Trump’s inauguration – which Flynn had no idea was an interview. He admitted misleading agents over contacts with the then-Russian ambassador regarding the Trump administration’s efforts to oppose a UN resolution related to Israel – as well as false statements to the DOJ about a lobbying project related to Turkey.

In 2019, however, Flynn switched lawyers – which was followed by allegations that his former lawyers had mishandled the case.

Flynn’s new lawyers, led by Sidney Powell, a frequent Mueller critic, urged senior officials like Attorney General William Barr to review the case against Flynn and abandon it. It’s unclear what action, if any, was taken on that request.

Powell also asked the judge overseeing Flynn’s case, U.S. District Court Judge Emmet Sullivan, to grant access to almost 50 categories of information that the defense said could illuminate the unfairness of Flynn’s prosecution. Sullivan rejected that demand in December ina blistering opinion.

“The Court summarily disposes of Mr. Flynn’s arguments that the FBI conducted an ambush interview for the purpose of trapping him into making false statements and that the government pressured him to enter a guilty plea,” Sullivan wrote then. “The record proves otherwise.” –Politico

Last month, Flynn asked the court to withdraw his guilty plea, arguing that he was tricked into filing it under pressure from prosecutors.

Federal prosecutors have not fully responded to that motion.

end

I have now seen everything: the lead juror in the Roger Stone case was a former Democrat political candidate and she despites Trum p. She lied on the questionnaire. This case should be thrown out..

(zerohedge)

Lead Juror In Roger Stone Trial Was Left-Wing Former Political Candidate Who Despises Trump

The lead juror in the Roger Stone trial is a former Democratic congressional candidate who hates President Trump, and actively posted anti-Trump material online during the trial, according to Cernovich.com and the Daily Caller.

Tomeka Hart admitted to being a Stone trial juror in a Facebook post expressing outrage after four prosecutors withdrew from his case on Tuesday in protest of the DOJ revising the longtime Trump adviser’s recommended sentence of up to nine years in prison for a process crime (while James Wolfe, the former Senate Select Committee on Intelligence (SSCI) staffer who leaked a top secret FISA application to his mistress, journalist Ali Watkins, was sentenced to just two months in prison).

“I have kept my silence for months. Initially, it was for my safety. Then, I decided to remain silent out of fear of politicizing the matter,” Hart wrote on Facebook, adding “But I can’t keep quiet any longer.

CNN first reported Hart’s post but did not note that she was a Democrat. Commercial Appeal, a news outlet affiliated with USA Today that spoke to Hart, reported details of her professional background. Those details match up with the same person who ran for Congress in 2012. A Politico reporter who covered Stone’s trial identified Hart as a former congressional candidate. –Daily Caller

Meanwhile, Hart – who was a Democratic congressional candidate in Tennessee in 2012, has a Twitter history littered with anti-Trump propaganda and was actively posting on social media during the trial. This, as attorney and journalist @Techno_Fog points out, raises questions over how she responded to the juror questionnaire which asked specific questions regarding social media, the Mueller investigation, and running for public office.

Her Twitter feed shows dozens of references to Trump, many of them links to negative stories about the Republican. In a Twitter post on Aug. 19, 2017, Hart quoted a tweet referring to Trump as the “#KlanPresident,” in an apparent reference to the KKK. –Daily Caller

Mike Cernovich

✔@Cernovich

· 12h

The judge in the Roger Stone case rigged the case against Stone and should never ben allowed to hear a case ever again!https://www.cernovich.com/social-media-posts-prove-the-judge-rigged-the-roger-stone-prosecution/ …

Social Media Posts Prove the Judge Rigged the Roger Stone Prosecution

Rumors regarding the make-up of the jury that voted to convict Roger Stone floated around, but no reporter would publicly identify the juror. One juror has revealed herself in a CNN column: (CNN)A …

cernovich.com

Mike Cernovich

✔@Cernovich

Roger Stone was convicted on November 15, 2019.

Here is the Tweet from one of the jurors who voted to convict Roger Stone, from the same day.

Hart, meanwhile, isn’t the first anti-Trump juror. Another one is married to a DOJ official who works for the division that worked to bring down Stone.

Stone, who was arrested in a dramatic pre-dawn FBI raid for a process crime in January, 2019, argued that he would be unable to receive a fair trial in Washington D.C., according to the Daily Caller. He was convicted on November 15, 2019 on five counts of making false statements to Congress, along with one obstruction charge and one witness tampering charge.

The government lawyers quit the Stone case after the Justice Department ordered a revision to the U.S. attorney’s office’s recommendation that Stone serve between 87 months and 108 months in prison on false statements and obstruction charges related to the House Intelligence Committee’s Russia investigation. –Daily Caller

Trump called Stone’s recommended sentence “disgraceful” and a “miscarriage of justice.”

And a reminder:

thebradfordfile™@thebradfordfile

It’s worth noting Robert Mueller knew Russian collusion was a farce when he went after Roger Stone. His goal was to catch Stone in a process crime to feed the media hysteria of a hoax Mueller knew to be untrue. Roger Stone was PERSECUTED.

It’s Mueller who belongs in prison.

end

Bill Barr blasts Trump for his Roger Stone tweets saying it it making it impossible for him to do his job

(zerohedge)

AG Barr Blasts Trump ‘Roger Stone’ Tweets For Making It “Impossible To Do My Job”

In an unusual break with the president, US Attorney General Bill Barr told ABC News that Trump “has never asked me to do anything in a criminal case” but should stop tweeting about the Justice Department because his tweets “make it impossible for me to do my job.”

Barr’s comments come after the president demoaned the lengthy sentence demanded by prosecutors in the Roger Stone case, only to see the sentencing demands cut and the entire prosecution resign – offering a not-so-good optical for Barr.

“I think it’s time to stop the tweeting about Department of Justice criminal cases,” Barr told ABC News Chief Justice Correspondent Pierre Thomas.

Thomas then asked Barr if we was worried about the potential blowback from criticizing the president. Barr replied curtly:

“I’m not going to be bullied or influenced by anybody … whether it’s Congress, a newspaper editorial board, or the president,” Barr said.

“I’m gonna do what I think is right. And you know … I cannot do my job here at the department with a constant background commentary that undercuts me.”

We do note, however, that during the interview, Barr fiercely defended his actions and said it had nothing to do with the president.

Barr added that it was “preposterous” to suggest that he “intervened” in the case as much as he acted to resolve a dispute within the department on a sentencing recommendation.

end

Turley: No, Trump Did Not Commit Criminal Witness Retaliation

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

I recently wrote a Washington Post column explaining that, while I viewed the moves by President Donald Trump against impeachment witnesses was wrong, it was not criminal as claimed by legal analysts like CNN’s Elie Honig. Yesterday, Honig responded by arguing in a column that he and “other former prosecutors” are quite confident that the action clearly constituted the crime of witness retaliation. While Honig does not actually explain how the President’s conduct specifically violated the stated elements in the federal code, even a cursory consideration of the elements of the crime belie his assertion. Trump’s actions with regard to Vindman and Sondland would not constitute criminal witness retaliation.

For the last three years, we have had a series of crimes declared as “clearly established” by former prosecutors based on alleged Russian collusion, Ukrainian collusion, and other controversies. Indeed, Honig most recently, insisted in the Ukrainian controversy that the crimes of bribery and extortion were clear as crime and impeachable offenses. In my recent testimony before the House Judiciary Committee regarding President Trump’s impeachment, I opposed the position of my fellow witnesses that the definition of actual crimes is immaterial to their use as the basis for impeachment — and I specifically opposed impeachment articles based on bribery, extortion, campaign finance violations or obstruction of justice. The committee ultimately rejected those articles and adopted the only two articles I felt could be legitimately advanced: abuse of power, obstruction of Congress. Chairman Jerrold Nadler even ended the hearing by quoting my position on abuse of power. Our only disagreement was that I opposed impeachment on this record as incomplete and insufficient for submission to the Senate.

Honig ‘s claim of criminal witness retaliation fares no better than his earlier assertions of established criminal conduct. He is simply wrong that these actions could be maintained as criminal acts. As I stated in my column, this does not mean that the actions are not objectionable even reprehensible, but they are not criminal. I was highly critical of the move as unnecessary and presumptively retaliatory. I was particularly harsh in my statements about the brother of Vindman being moved as akin to a medieval blood punishment. The fact that this looks like retaliation however does not mean that it meets the test for specific crime of witness retaliation.

Crimes have elements and those elements are essential unless, it seems, the accused is Donald Trump. CNN has particularly been a font of claimed clear criminal acts by Trump, a place with viewers can be assured that the evidence is clear and the crimes established.

Now let’s look at this crime. First and foremost, Honig notes that either obstruction or tampering “arguably could apply” also as criminal charges. I addresses these crimes in my column but it is important to note the clear disconnect in this logic. Honig is saying that the moving of a witness like Vindman can be obstruction or tampering “after” the trial is over and he has given his testimony. There is no obstruction of a past trial, particularly one where the defendant was acquitted. It is not unclear how Honig believes that a later transfer tampers with testimony that has already been given in a case that is closed.

Now let’s specifically deal with Honig’s insistence that this is clearly witness retaliation. In the 1980s, Congress strengthened protections for witnesses with new provision on 18 U.S.C § 1512 which augments the federal witness tampering law under 18 U.S.C. § 1503, which broadened the definition of witness tampering. The structure of 18 U.S.C. § 1513 is similar to that of 18 U.S.C. § 1512 but is viewed as broadening its application. However, it still has criminal elements and those elements undermine credible suggestions that this falls within the statutory definitions for this crime.

On the elements, there are immediate problems with this claim. Prosecutors will sometimes brush over elements, they are also regularly chastised by courts by doing so. Here are the elements from the relevant part of 18 U.S.C. 1513:

e)Whoever knowingly, with the intent to retaliate, takes any action harmful to any person, including interference with the lawful employment or livelihood of any person, for providing to a law enforcement officer any truthful information relating to the commission or possible commission of any Federal offense, shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than 10 years, or both.

Immediate problems arise from the language.

First, there is the question of whether a congressional committee in this matter involves providing information to a law enforcement officer. However, even assuming that it does, there is the element of given information of “the commission or possible commission of a Federal offense.” A “federal offense” is defined, in 18 U.S.C. 3156 (a)(2) as “any criminal offense, other than an offense triable by court-martial, military commission, provost court, or other military tribunal, which is in violation of an Act of Congress and is triable in any court established by Act of Congress.” The House admitted that this was the first impeachment based on non-criminal articles of impeachment and the witnesses, including Vindman, agreed that they did not see the commission of a criminal act in their judgment.
Second, there is the suggestion by Honig that, once a witness testifies at a congressional committee, they are effectively immune from transfers deemed inimical or negative for their careers. Even outside of the White House that would be a rather bizarre rule. It would mean that, regardless of whether testimony is accepted as true or given according to proper guidelines, the witness is somehow protected for all time or at least some undefined period after the trial is over.

This becomes even more bizarre in the context of the White House where courts have been clear that a President may select his staff and advisers as virtual at-will employees. So, according to Honig, the President is required to continue to work with an official on a daily basis who accused him of sacrificing national security for personal gain and then lied about it. Moreover, Vindman would have some vested hold on a discretionary position until he, not the President, decided that he would move on. In this way, Congress would need only to line up staffers to testify against the wishes of a president to fill the White House with staffers who would be unmovable for the president. Indeed, they could hold such a hearing at the start of an Administration to freeze the staff of the prior president in place. The same is true with Sondland. Honig suggests that a president is required to keep an ambassador and work with him despite the fact that Sondland basically called him a liar. An ambassador must speak on behalf of the president on matters of policy. The prior testimony can be viewed as creating an uncertainty as to the ability of Sondland to speak for Trump or Trump’s own veracity. It also suggests to European allies that the ambassador no longer enjoys a close relationship with the President, which is manifestly obvious.

Honig also does not address the main point of my article. While I criticized the President for these actions, Sondland and Vindman disobeyed a direct instruction not to testify while the White House challenged the right to call witnesses. They did so without waiting for a court order, as did other called witnesses. That would be viewed as a legitimate basis for transfer or termination by most courts in a White House position.

We can clearly have good-faith disagreements on some of these points. However, I fail to see how all of these barriers to a criminal charge can be dismissed or how Honig and others can claim that this is a compelling basis for a criminal charge. Viewers may be thrilled or relieved to hear such analysis but it is clearly not reflective of the actual elements of the crime. Even after a long litany of such dubious and rejected criminal claims, viewers want to hear that this President is a proven criminal. However, legal analysts are asked to offer unvarnished and unbiased views of the law.

The test is whether such a conclusion would be sustained if the name of the defendant was not Donald J. Trump. I do not believe that this view is meets that test.

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

GOP @RepMarkMeadows: Amazing line in Politico today: “Nancy Pelosi hosted a special speaker’s meeting on Tuesday with a top Obama economics adviser to explain to Democrats why the economy isn’t actually as strong as Trump claims, and how they can message that to voters” Good luck

OAN’s @ChloeSalsameda: Attorney General William Barr will testify before the House Judiciary Committee on March 31. He will be questioned on: -DOJ’s intervention in the Roger Stone case

-Rudy Giuliani giving DOJ info on Pres. Trump’s political rivals -Removal of U.S. Attorney Jessie Liu

Does Barr’s acquiescence to appear before Nadler and his committee a sign that Spygate indictments and plea deals are about to hit the fan? Our very, very good source told us that recently: 1) there were an inordinate number of meetings between Barr and Durham; and 2) there are sealed indictments.

Warren Campaign Cancels $500K in S.C. Ads, $60K in Nevada after Latest Plunge in Polls https://oann.com/warren-campaign-cancels-500k-in-s-c-ads-60k-in-nevada-after-latest-plunge-in-polls/

Warren Brags about Taking Half of College Student’s Last $6

A young girl came up to me tonight and said, “I’m a broke college student with a lot of student loan debt. I checked and I have $6 in the bank—so I just gave $3 to keep you in this fight.” We’re staying in this fight for the people who are counting on us…

https://legalinsurrection.com/2020/02/warren-brags-about-taking-half-of-college-students-last-6/

The crumbling of the Democratic establishment [Follows DJT’s sack of the GOP Est in 2016]

The rise of Sanders and the collapse of Biden show that the party elite has lost control.

https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/02/12/the-crumbling-of-the-democratic-establishment/

@realDonaldTrump: Whatever happened to Hillary campaign manager Podesta’s BROTHER? Wasn’t he caught, forced to leave his firm, with BIG BAD things to happen? Why did nothing ever happen to him, only to the “other” side? … And a swamp creature with “pull” was just sentenced to two months in jail for a similar thing that they want Stone to serve 9 years for. A phony Mueller Witch Hunt disgrace.

James Wolfe, ex-intelligence aide who dated reporter, sentenced to 2 months in leak probe

James Wolfe, a former aide on the Senate Intelligence Committee, was sentenced two months in prison on Thursday after pleading guilty to lying to the FBI in an investigation of his contacts with reporters and the leaking of classified information. Wolfe was the Senate’s longtime director of security for the intelligence committee before retiring in May. He was charged in June with three counts with making false statements to federal investigators, who during the investigation seized emails and phone records belonging to New York Times correspondent Ali Watkins, whom he’d reportedly dated…

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2018/12/20/james-wolfe-ex-intelligence-aide-sentenced-prison-leak-probe/2380730002/

Roger Stone, an ally of President Donald Trump, was found guilty Friday of lying to Congress and obstructing an investigation into Russia… [Rogue prosecutors asked for 7-9 years for Stone.]

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2019/11/15/roger-stone-jurors-deliver-verdict-trump-ally-trial-over-wikileaks/4187429002/

Rich Higgins WSJ op-ed: The White House Fired Me for My Loyalty

Nobody demanded an investigation or celebrated me as a ‘whistleblower.’ That’s as it should be.

Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman wasn’t the first staffer to be fired from President Trump’s National Security Council and escorted from the premises by security. I went through the same ritual on July 21, 2017. But in contrast to Col. Vindman, I lost my job because I was loyal to the president [and warned DJT about the coup against him. So, Gen. McMaster fired him.]. I had worked in counterterrorism, as both a Pentagon staffer and a private contractor, since before 9/11…

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-white-house-fired-me-for-my-loyalty-11581526372

NSC Staffer Is Forced Out Over a Controversial Memo- The document charges that globalists, Islamists, and other forces within and outside the government are subverting President Trump’s agenda.

Rich Higgins, a former Pentagon official who served in the NSC’s strategic-planning office as a director for strategic planning, was let go on July 21… On July 21, the Friday of that week, he was informed by McMaster’s deputy Ricky Waddell that he was losing his job… McMaster fired Derek Harvey, the senior director for the Middle East, last week. Also a Bannon ally… Earlier this year, his [McMaster] attempt to fire Ezra Cohen-Watnick [allegedly provided DJT with info about Obama Admin spying on DJT], the NSC’s top intelligence official, was blocked by Bannon, Jared Kushner, and Trump…

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2017/08/a-national-security-council-staffer-is-forced-out-over-a-controversial-memo/535725/

Mitt Romney Is a Top 20 Recipient of Funding by George Soros’ Lobbyist Group

The mob hits Broadway: young actress targeted for social media past [Not your parents’ USA now]

Laura Leigh Turner, an actress who recently landed the role of Karen on the Broadway adaptation of Mean Girls, is currently the subject of a Change.org petition demanding she be removed from the production for being allegedly “transphobic” and holding “pro-life” views…

https://www.thepostmillennial.com/the-mob-hits-broadway-young-actress-targeted-for-social-media-past/

Wisconsin School District Abandons ‘A-F’ Grading Scale to Prevent Stress

Now, top students will be graded as “exceeding” while failing students will be “emerging.”… Schneider points out that the new grading system doesn’t apply directly to a student’s performance in each subject. Instead, students are graded on their ability to work in groups and tell stories… [Great prep for life!]

https://www.breitbart.com/tech/2020/02/12/wisconsin-school-district-abandons-a-f-grading-scale-to-prevent-stress/

END

Well that is all for today

I will see you Friday night.

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR FEB CONTRACT: 153 NOTICE(S) FOR 15,300 OZ (0.4758 tonnes)

8 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 40,000 OZ/

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE : $ 10,157 DOWN 170

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $ 10,197 DOWN 134

Let us have a look at the data for today

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

3b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3C CHINA

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

6.Global Issues

7. OIL ISSUES

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

10. important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

Let us head over to the comex:

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 265,558 contracts?? low volume

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY: 215,953 contracts//low volume

INITIAL standings for FEB/GOLD

Let us head over to the comex:

And now for silver

AND NOW THE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB.

INITIAL standings/SILVER

Exclusive Gold Offer – For Retail, Pension and HNW Investors

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

Jan Nieuwenhuijs: Reuters was wrong to claim China blocked gold imports last year

iii) Other physical stories:

The Global “Just In Time” Inventory Challenge!

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

Your early THURSDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results, important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

Markets Hit By “Perfect Storm” As Stocks Slide On Surge In New Coronavirus Cases, Deaths

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

Japan Reports First Coronavirus Death; Only The Third Outside China

3 C CHINA

China Reports Huge Jump In New Coronavirus Infections And Deaths; Oil, Stocks Tumble

Coronavirus “Likely To Wreak Havoc” And Decimate February China Auto Sales

Sudden Militarization Of Wuhan’s P4 Lab Raises New Questions About The Origin Of The Deadly Covid-19 Virus

熱帖：中共推遲公佈疫情 是為等石正麗提交論文

FOXCONN/CHINA/APPLE/COVID 19

Foxconn Denies Reuters Reports On Factory Restart In China

China Has Ground To A Halt: “On The Ground” Indicators Confirm Worst-Case Scenario

In Shocking Admission, WHO Advisor Says Coronavirus May Infect Over 5 Billion People

Hong Kong’s Largest Mall Owner Cuts Rents Up To 50%

Blain: “Virus Vs Markets: I Think The Music Just Stopped”

Rabobank: “The Quants Who Were Merrily Looking At The Decline In New Virus Cases Woke Up To A Shock”

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

Cables Climbs As Boris Sacks Chancellor Javid In Latest ‘Cabinet Reshuffle’ Twist

Washington Weighs Another Crackdown As Germany Reportedly Plans To Snub US And Side With Huawei

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

6.Global Issues

7. OIL ISSUES

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings THURSDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for THURSDAY: 12:00 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

USA trading today in Graph Form

Fed Liquidity Drain Spoils Virus-Surge-Inspired Stock Buying-Panic

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

Consumer Price Inflation Hotter Than Expected Despite Goods Deflation

Fed Injects $79BN In Liquidity: Term Repo Most Oversubscribed Since Repo Crisis

Liquidity Warning: Fed Shrinks Overnight Repos By $20BN, Term Repos By $10BN

Subprime Auto Loans Explode, “Serious Delinquencies” Spike To Record

Why are subprime delinquencies surging like this?

US Continues Crackdown On Huawei, Adds Racketeering Conspiracy Charge

Biden Donors Panic After Former VP Beaten Like A Drum

Nevermind All That FBI Misconduct’: Mueller Attack-Dog Asks Court To Ignore Flynn Bid To Toss Case

Lead Juror In Roger Stone Trial Was Left-Wing Former Political Candidate Who Despises Trump

Social Media Posts Prove the Judge Rigged the Roger Stone Prosecution

AG Barr Blasts Trump ‘Roger Stone’ Tweets For Making It “Impossible To Do My Job”

Turley: No, Trump Did Not Commit Criminal Witness Retaliation

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熱帖：中共推遲公佈疫情是為等石正麗提交論文