FEB 12/GOLD UP BY $1.80 TO $1568.60//SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS TO $17.52//HUGE QUEUE JUMPING IN GOLD AS BANKERS ARE DESPERATE TO FIND PHYSICAL GOLD: AMT STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX RISES BY .6 TONNES TO 24.63 TONNES//SMALL QUEUE JUMPING OF 25,000 OZ IN SILVER//HUGE UPDATES ON THE CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC//TURKEY AND SYRIA GOING HEAD TO HEAD IN BATTLE WITH THE USA URGING ON TURKEY//OIL DEMAND PLUMMETS DUE TO THE CORONAVIRUS//

GOLD:$1568.60 UP $1.80    (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING

 

 

 

Silver:$17.52 DOWN 10 CENTS  (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

 

Closing access prices:

 

GOLD: 1566.50

 

SILVER: 17.53

 

A new  attraction coming to a theatre close to you:

 

 

 

COMEX DATA

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING:  71/109

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: FEBRUARY 2020 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,565.600000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 02/11/2020 DELIVERY DATE: 02/13/2020
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
355 C CREDIT SUISSE 5
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 10
624 C BOFA SECURITIES 4
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 2
661 C JP MORGAN 71
686 C INTL FCSTONE 1
737 C ADVANTAGE 91 15
800 C MAREX SPEC 17
880 C CITIGROUP 2
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 109 109
MONTH TO DATE: 7,052

we are coming very close to a commercial failure!!

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  FEB CONTRACT: 109 NOTICE(S) FOR 10,900 OZ (0.3390 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  7052 NOTICES FOR 705200 OZ  (21.934 TONNES)

 

 

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR FEB

 

 

5 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 25,000  OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month: 225 for 1,125,000 oz

 

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE :  $ 10308 UP 81 

 

 

 

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $ 10,405 UP 184 

 

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

IN SILVER THE COMEX OI FELL A HUGE SIZED 2090 CONTRACTS FROM 223,948 DOWN TO 221,858 WITH OUR 19 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX.

 

TODAY WE ARRIVED FURTHER FROM AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A VERY  STRONG  SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:,

; FEB 0; MARCH:  386 AND MAY: 0 AND JULY: 0 ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  386 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 617 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 386 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 3.085 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 19 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

7.32     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

2.630     MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOV.

20.970   MILLION OZ  FINAL STANDING IN DEC

5.075     MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JAN

1.125    MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN FEB

 

TUESDAY, AGAIN OUR CROOKS USED COPIOUS PAPER IN ORDER TO CONTAIN SILVER’S PRICE…AND THEY WERE  SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL 19 CENTS).. BUT, OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS  WERE  SUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE  SOME SILVER LONGS AS THE TOTAL LOSS IN OI ON BOTH EXCHANGES TOTALED A STRONG 1704 CONTRACTS. OR 8.521 MILLION OZ….. WE MAY HAVE HAD SOME CONSIDERABLE LONG LIQUIDATION IN SILVER

 

 

WE HAVE NOW COMMENCED IN SILVER THE ILLEGAL SPREADING OPERATION.  FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS:

 

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW STOPPED IN GOLD AS THEY NOW BEGIN TO MORPH INTO SILVER AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW FRONT MONTH WILL BE MARCH.

 

 

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEW, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE SPREADERS AND THE CRIMINAL ELEMENT BEHIND IT:

 

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR GOLD..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR SILVER.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEWCOMERS HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

.

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO SILVER AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX SILVER OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MARCH FOR SILVER:

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON  ACTIVE MONTH OF FEB .BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (MAR), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF FEB:

7211 CONTRACTS (FOR 8 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 7211 CONTRACTS) OR 36.055 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 901 CONTRACTS OR 4.507 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF FEB: 36.055 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 5.15% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

 

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2020 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          217.67 MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2020 EFP TOTALS SO FAR: 181.61 MILLION OZ

FEB 2020 EFP’S TOTAL SO FAR:  ……     36.055 MILLION OZ

 

 

RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1965, WITH THE 19 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /TUESDAY THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A FAIR SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 386 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER

 

TODAY WE LOST A STRONG SIZED  SIZED: 1704 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: (WITH THE LOSS IN PRICE)

i.e 386 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH DECREASE OF 2090 OI COMEX CONTRACTS.AND ALL OF THIS LACK OF   DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 19 CENT LOSS IN PRICE OF SILVER AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $17.62 // TUESDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY!! 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.119 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 159% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW  FEB DELIVERY MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: NOTICE(S) FOR  25,000 OZ OF SILVER.

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018. AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.70

 

.

 

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 10.025 MILLION OZ/ SEPT 43.030 MILLION OZ//OCT: 7.665 MILLION OZ//   NOV: 2.630 MILLION OZ//DEC:  20.970 MILLION OZ; JAN:  5.075 MILLION OZ.//FEB 1.125 MILLION OZ//
  2. THE  RECORD WAS SET IN AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78//.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

 

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 

GOLD

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 758 CONTRACTS TO 658,024 AND MOVING FURTHER FROM  OUR  NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE SMALL FALL IN COMEX OI OCCURRED WITH OUR LOSS OF $9.30 IN PRICING /// COMEX GOLD TRADING// TUESDAY// WE PROBABLY HAD SOME BANKER SHORT COVERING.  HOWEVER WITH THE STRONG ISSUANCE OF EFP’S THEY BASICALLY COULD NOT FLEECE LONGS FROM THE GOLD ARENA  (THE TWO EXCHANGES)  

 

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

 

 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A GOOD SIZED 5334 CONTRACTS:

CONTRACTS, FEB>  0 CONTRACTS; MARCH 00 APRIL: 5334; JUNE. 0 AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO//TOTAL: 5334.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 657,956,.  ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A GOOD SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 4576 CONTRACTS: 758 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX  AND 5334 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 4576 CONTRACTS OR 457,600 OZ OR 14.23 TONNES. TUESDAY, WE HAD A CONSIDERABLE LOSS OF $9.30 IN GOLD TRADING……

AND WITH THAT LOSS IN  PRICE, WE  HAD A GOOD GAIN IN GOLD TONNAGE OF 14.23  TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS/OFFICIAL SECTOR WERE SUPPLYING INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER WITH RECKLESS ABANDON. THE BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE (LOSS $9.30).  IT SEEMS THAT THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE  GOLD LONGS FROM THE GOLD ARENA FAILED AS WE HAD  A FAIR INCREASE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS  (3697) ACCOMPANYING THE SMALL LOSS IN COMEX OI.(758)

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF FEB : 77,640 CONTRACTS OR 7,764,000 oz OR 241.493 TONNES (8 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 9705 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 8 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 241.493 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 241.493/3550 x 100% TONNES =6.80% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL /GOLD HAS EXPLODED THIS MONTH.

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:    811.68  TONNES

JANUARY 2220 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE; SO FAR: 570.19 TONNES

FEB 2020 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE SO FAR:            241.493  TONNES

 

 

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

Result: A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 758 WITH THE  PRICING LOSS THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK TUESDAY($9.30)) //.WE ALSO HAD A  GOOD SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 5334 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT TH GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 5334 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE  HAD A GOOD SIZED GAIN OF 4576 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

5334 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND  758 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 14.02 TONNES). ..AND THIS  INCREASE OF DEMAND OCCURRED WITH THE LOSS IN PRICE OF $9.30 WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S TRADING/// AT THE COMEX.

 

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

 

 

WITH GOLD DOWN $1.80  TODAY

A MONSTROUS CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD.

A DEPOSIT OF 6.15 TONNES OF GOLD AND THIS OCCURRED WITH THE PRICE DOWN?

 

FEB 12/2020/Inventory rests tonight at 622,23 tonnes

 

 

 

 

 

SLV/

 

 

WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS TODAY

NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV

 

FEB 12/INVENTORY RESTS AT 364.179 MILLION OZ.

 

 

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

 

 

end

 

OUTLINE OF TOPICS TONIGHT

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest in SILVER FELL BY A HUGE SIZED 2090 CONTRACTS from 223,948 DOWN TO 221,858 AND FURTHER FROM  OUR NEW COMEX RECORD.  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 3/4 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

EFP ISSUANCE 617

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 FOR FEB. 0; FOR MAR  386:  AND MAY: 0; JULY: 0 CONTRACTS   AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 386 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE OI LOSS AT THE COMEX OF 2090  CONTRACTS TO THE 386 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A STRONG LOSS OF 1704 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 8.52 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL  18.765 MILLION OZ FOR MAY  NOW 2.660 MILLION OZ FOR JUNE WITH JULY AT 22.605 MILLION OZ AUGUST AT 10.025 MILLION OZ//  SEPT: 43.030 MILLION OZ///OCT: 7.32 MILLION OZ//NOV 2.63 MILLION OZ//DEC: 20.970 MILLION OZ//JAN: 5.075 MILLION OZ//FEB: 1.25 MILLION OZ//

 

 

RESULT: A HUGE SIZED DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE 19 CENT FALL IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// TUESDAY. WE ALSO HAD A FAIR SIZED 386 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

 

 

 

 

(report Harvey)

 

 

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)WEDNESDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 25.23 POINTS OR 0.87%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 239.78 POINTS OR 0.87%   /The Nikkei closed UP 175.23 POINTS OR 0.87%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .47%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.9703 /Oil UP TO 50.70 dollars per barrel for WTI and 55.14 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 6.9703 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.9705 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED/CORONAVIRUS//  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

 

3b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3C  CHINA

i)CHINA/HUAWEI

the Wall Street Journal publishes highly classified evidence proving that Huawei using the backdoor on their systems to spy for Beijing.  They the uSA will use all its force trying to stop Europe from using the Huawei 5 G network which is about 30% less in cost than Erickson and Nokia

(zerohedge)

ii)CHINA/CORONAVIRUS

CHINA’S DILEMMA:/
(courtesy Charles Hugh Smith)

iii)CHINA//CORONAVIRUS (COVID 19)

We now have reports that the Chinese military and police who were rounding up citizens suspected of having the Covid 19 virus are now infected.  This will devastate the Chinese economy

(zerohedge)

iv)China//Economics/Coronavirus

Now China is issuing “force majeure” slips claiming that they cannot undertake contracts due to the Covid 19 pandemic
(Bloomberg)

v)China/Covid 19 (Coronavirus)An inside looks as to why the numbers are inaccurate:  Wuhan hospitals turned away 1000’s even though they probably had the Covid 19 virus

(zerohedge)

vi)A report from inside the epi centre of the viral attack, Wuhan through the eyes of AFP reporters:

(zerohedge/AFP)

vii) Robert H email to me on the economic turmoil of the Covid 19 virus

ix)CHINA/CORONAVIRUS/SUZHOU CITY

This is what happens to one company after Beijing ordered many to return.  One employee was found to have the Covid 19 virus and as such all 200 employees are now quarantined

(zerohedge)

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)UK/CORONAVIRUS

Hospital worker among the 8 in England who have been tested positive and is being treated.  The Westerdam is finally being allowed to dock and its destination is Cambodia.

(zerohedge)

ii)France

Welcome to the world of France with their huge Muslim population

(Meotti/Gatestone Institute)

iii)Europe //Industrial Production
The rebound in Industrial production just did not come..it collapsed and this is before the pandemic coronavirus (Covid 19)
(zerohedge)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

TURKEY/SYRIA

Amazing now the uSA is backing Turkey as Erdogan vows to attack the Syrians anywhere and everywhere

(zerohedge)

6.Global Issues

i)COVID19 /LUXURY GOODS COMPANIES

Luxury goods operators are having trouble because their robust growth came from China.  Now the Covid 19 virus will play havoc to the balance sheet

(zerohedge)

ii)this is deadly! Carnival is closing down all Asia operations until at least the end of April due to the material impact from Covid 19.

(zerohedge)

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)Money Metals News Service reports what we have been telling you:  JPMorgan Chase as a company is being pursued as a RICO case.  The Dept of Justice  has many chat room discussions plus tapes on JPMorgan’s nefarious activities.  Let us see how this is played out.

(Clint Siegner/MMN/GATA)

ii)Investment bankers are covering their shorts on Palladium due to declining physical supplies.  Craig wonders if this will happen to gold and silver

Craig Hemke/Sprott

iii)ABC refinery wants to take on the Perth Mint

(GATA)

iv)The citizens of Utah must impeach Romney.  He is hinting that he might oppose Trump’s Fed nominee Judy Shelton

(zerohedge)

10. important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

The USA deficit for the first 4 months of the fiscal year blows out to a high of 389 billion dollars.  The interest expense for this year will probably come in at 590 billion dollars.  We are heading for a deficit certainly north of 1 trillion dollars.  If you include non balance sheet items, the deficit is 1.2 trillion dollars.

(zerohedge)

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

USA/CHINA/UNITED STATES POSTAL SERVICE/CORONAVIRUS

US postal service suspends delivery guarantee to mail to China..a total global disruption

(zerohedge)

iv) Swamp commentaries

The bloodbath of Obama holdovers who were leaking like crazy will commence in that 70 positions will be cut.

(zerohedge)

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

 

LET US BEGIN:

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY SMALL SIZED 758CONTRACTS TO 657,956 MOVING FURTHER FROM OUR  RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020).  AND THIS LOSS IN OI WAS SET WITH A CONSIDERABLE LOSS OF $9.30 IN GOLD PRICING //TUESDAY’S  COMEX TRADING//). HOWEVER, WITH THE STRONG EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAD ANOTHER FAILED ATTEMPT AT BANKER SHORT COVERING ……NOBODY LEFT THE GOLD ARENA TUESDAY.

 

WE ARE NOW IN THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A ,GOOD SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 5334 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

  FEB: 0; MARCH 00 AND APRIL: 5334,  JUNE : 0 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 5334 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A  GOOD SIZED 4508 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 5334 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE LOST A SMALL SIZED 758 COMEX CONTRACTS.  THE BANKERS PROVIDED THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER TO WHICH OUR LONGS DUTIFULLY ACCEPTED. WE HAD NO BANKER SHORT COVERING, AS LONGS JUST MORPHED OVER TO LONDON BASED FORWARDS TO RECEIVE THEIR FIAT BONUS AND COLLECT THEIR MONEY ON THEIR CIRCULAR FORWARDS EVERY TIME THEY PASS GO (EVERY 13 DAYS)

THE BANKERS WERE  SOMEWHAT SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE //// (IT FELL BY $9.30). BUT THEY WERE MOST DEFINITELY  UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING ANY LONGS, AS THE TOTAL ON THE TWO EXCHANGES WAS A  GOOD SIZED 4576 CONTRACTS ….(14.23 TONNES)

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ::  4523 CONTRACTS OR 452300 OZ OR 14.23 TONNES

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT COMMODITY FUTURES OPEN INTEREST SHOULD APPROXIMATE 3% OF TOTAL PRODUCTION.  IN GOLD THE WORLD PRODUCES AROUND 3500 TONNES PER YEAR BUT ONLY 2200 TONNES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE WEST (THUS EXCLUDING RUSSIA, CHINA ETC..WHO KEEP 100% OF THEIR PRODUCTION)

THUS IN GOLD WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:  658,024 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS X 100 OZ PER CONTRACT = 65.80 MILLION OZ/32,150 OZ PER TONNE =  2,046 TONNES

THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST REPRESENTS 2,046/2200 OR 93.01% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF GOLD.

 

 

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And now for the wild silver comex results

Total COMEX silver OI FELL BY A HUGE SIZED 1965 CONTRACTS FROM 223,948 DOWN TO 221,858 (AND FURTHER FROM THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018 (244,196).  THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND OUR  OI COMEX GAIN OCCURRED WITH A STRONG 19 CENT DECREASE IN PRICING/TUESDAY.

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE  NON-ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB.

FEB IS A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH.

 

THE FRONT MONTH OF FEBRUARY HAS A TOTAL OPEN INTEREST OF 5 CONTRACTS SHOWING A GAIN OF 4 CONTRACTS//TUESDAY TRADING. WE HAD 1 NOTICES SERVED YESTERDAY SO WE GAINED 5 CONTRACTS OR 25,000 OZ OF SILVER WILL STAND AT THE COMEX AS THEY REFUSED TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS AND AS SUCH THEY REFUSED TO ACCEPT A FIAT BONUS IF THEY WOULD HAVE PERFORMED THEIR DEED.

 

March is a very active month and here we witness a LOSS of 9357 contracts  DOWN TO 126,155

APRIL saw a gain of 10 contracts up to 107.

MAY had a good 6867 gain in oi to stand at 58,376.

 

 

 

We, today, had  5 notice(s)  for 25,000, OZ for the FEB, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 192,979 contracts??  low volume   

 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  253,248 contracts//low volume

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  FEB/GOLD

 

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

 

 

FEB 12/2020

 

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
96.45 oz
Scotia
3 kilobars
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil oz

 

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

8037.500

Loomis

250 kilobars

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
109 notice(s)
 10900 OZ
(0.3390 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
869 contracts
(86,900 oz)
2.702 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
7052 notices
705200 OZ
21.934 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

we had 0 dealer entry:

We had  2 kilobar entries

 

 

 

total dealer deposits:nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

 

we had 1 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan: nil  oz

 

ii) Into Loomis:  8037.500 oz

250 kilobars//phony entry

 

 

 

 

 

 

total deposits:  8037.500 oz

 

 

 

 

we had 1 gold withdrawals from the customer account:

I ) Out of Scotia:  96.45 oz
3 kilobars

 

 

total gold withdrawals;  96.45 oz

 

ADJUSTMENTS:  0

 

 

 

 

The front month of February saw its open interest fall by 605 contracts down to 978 contracts.  We had 810 notices filed upon yesterday, so we GAINED a strong 205 contracts or an additional 20,500 oz will  stand for delivery here and THUS THEY REFUSED TO MORPH into London based forwards and thus negate a fiat bonus. The March non active contract month saw its OI RISE by 23 contracts UP to 2961.  The big April contract month saw its OI FALL by 1068 contracts up to 482,620.

 

We had 109 notices filed today for 10,900 oz

 

 

 

FOR THE  FEB 2020 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 109 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 71 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the FEB /2020. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (7052) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  FEB. (978 contracts) minus the number of notices served upon today (109 x 100 oz per contract) equals 792,100 OZ OR 24.63 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this  active month of FEB

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the FEB/2020 contract month:

No of notices served (7052 x 100 oz)  + (978)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (109 x 100 oz )which equals 792,100 oz standing OR 24.63 in this  active delivery month of FEB. which is a still a great opening for gold // amount standing.

 

We GAINED 205 contracts or 20,500 oz REFUSED TO LEAVE USA shores to visit the Queen in London.  They REFUSED TO ACCEPT A London based gold forwards as well as NEGATING a fiat bonus for their efforts.

 

 

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:  BRINKS

3027.500 OZ  REMOVED TO THE PLEDGED ACCOUNT JAN 10.2020/Brinks

176,211.457 oz NOW PLEDGED  JAN 21.2020/HSBC  5.4807 TONNES

 

 

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES…. WE HAVE ONLY 39.865 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS.

HERE IS WHAT STOOD DURING THESE PAST 7 MONTHS:  AUGUST 27.153 TONNES

SEPT:                                                                      5.4525 TONNES

OCT…………………………………………………………………………..   37.99 TONNES

NOV……                                                                5.3841 tonnes

DEC………………………….                                              45.912 TONNES

JAN……………………                                                    8.448 TONNES

FEB……………………………………………..                             24.63 tonnes

 

total: 154.969 tonnes

ACCORDING TO COMEX RULES:

 

IF WE INCLUDE THE PAST 7 MONTHS OF SETTLEMENTS WE HAVE 22.3377 TONNES SETTLED (includes the 1.4847 tonnes of today)

 

IF WE ADD THE 7 DELIVERY MONTHS: 154.969  tonnes

 

Thus:

154.969 tonnes of delivery –

22.3377 TONNES DEEMED SETTLEMENT

=132.6313 TONNES STANDING FOR METAL AGAINST 39.865 TONNES OF REGISTERED OR FOR SALE COMEX GOLD! THIS IS WHY GOLD IS SCARCE AT THE COMEX.

 

total registered or dealer gold:   1,457,896.331 oz or  45.346 tonnes
which  includes the following:
a) pledged gold held at HSBC + BRINKS  which cannot settled upon   176,211.457 oz x ( 5.4807 TONNES)//
b)registered gold that can be used to settle upon:1,281,684.9  (39.865 tonnes)
true registered gold  (total registered – pledged tonnes  1,281,684.9  (39.865 tonnes)
total registered, pledged  and eligible (customer) gold;   8,732,143.328 oz 271.60 tonnes

 

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX 
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.
3. NO GOLD IS ENTERING THE COMEX

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1.GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX 
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.
3. NO GOLD IS ENTERING THE COMEX

WHY ARE THEY NOT SETTLING?

 

THE COMEX IS AN ABSOLUTE FRAUD..

 

 

end

 

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB.

INITIAL  standings/SILVER

IN TOTAL CONTRAST TO GOLD, HUGE ACTIVITY IN SILVER TODAY.
FEB 12 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 17,938.25 oz
Brinks

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
883,436.054 oz
CNT
Delaware
Scotia
No of oz served today (contracts)
5
CONTRACT(S)
(25,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
0 contracts
 NIL oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  225 contracts

1,125,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

**

 

 

 

*

 

 

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

i)we had  3 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:   0

 

ii) Into CNT: 2061.35 oz

iii) Into Delaware: 290,371.944 oz

iii) Into Scotia:  591,002.76 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 160.84 million oz of  total silver inventory or 50.15% of all official comex silver. (161.3 million/321.578 million

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  883,436.054   oz

 

we had 1 withdrawals out of the customer account:

 

 

i) Out of Brinks; 17,938.25 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total withdrawals; 17,938.25  oz

We had 1 adjustment:

i Out of CNT:  603,204.400 oz was adjusted out of the customer and this lands into the dealer account of CNT

 

 

total dealer silver:  80.113 million

total dealer + customer silver:  321.578 million oz

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The total number of notices filed today for the FEB 2019. contract month is represented by 5 contract(s) FOR 25,000 oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in FEB, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 225 x 5,000 oz = 1,125,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of FEB. (5) and the number of notices served upon today 5 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the FEB/2019 contract month: 225 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of Feb (5)- number of notices served upon today (1) x 5000 oz equals 1,125,000 oz of silver standing for the Feb contract month.

 

We gained 5 contracts or an additional 25,000 oz will stand at the comex as these guys refused to morph into London based forwards.

 

 

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN:  THE COMEX IS UNDER ASSAULT FOR BOTH PHYSICAL GOLD AND SILVER WITH SILVER IN THE LEAD BY FAR. DESPITE  MASSIVE RAIDS, LONGS CONTINUE WITH THEIR HUNT AT THE COMEX FOR PHYSICAL METAL.. IT WILL NOT BE LONG BEFORE WE WITNESS A COMMERCIAL FAILURE..STAY TUNED..WE WITNESSED CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING IN SILVER TODAY AND AN ATTEMPTED BANKER SHORT COVERING IN GOLD WITH ZERO SUCCESS.

 

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME: 85,418 CONTRACTS //

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 97,782 CONTRACTS..

 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 97782 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 488 million  OZ 69.8% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..makes sense!!

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

 

end

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

NPV for Sprott

 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV RISES TO -1.07% ((FEB 12/2019)

2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO +0.46% to NAV FEB 12/2019 )* POSITIVE FOR 3RD DAY IN A ROW

Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ 1.07%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 15.39 TRADING 15.04///DISCOUNT 2.30

 

END

 

 

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

FEB 12/WITH GOLD UP $1.80 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 6.15 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 922.23 TONNES

FEB 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.30 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 916.08 TONNES

FEB 10/WITH GOLD UP $6.10 TODAY:A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.17 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 916.08 TONNES

FEB 7/WITH GOLD UP $3.20 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS THIS WEEKEND AT; 914.91 TONNES

FEB 6/WITH GOLD UP $8.80: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.33 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.91 TONNES

FEB 4//WITH GOLD DOWN $26.10: A VERY STRANGE PHENOMENA: A MONSTROUS DEPOSIT OF 9.38 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.58 TONNES

FEB 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.40 TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE: A TINY WITHDRAWAL OF .29 TONNES OF GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 903.21 TONNES( TO PAY FOR FEES LIKE STORAGE INSURANCE ETC)

JAN 31/WITH GOLD DOWN  $0.95 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 903.50 TONNES

JAN 30/WITH GOLD UP $13.05 TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 4.09 TONNES INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 903.50 TONES

JAN 29/WITH GOLD UP 0.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 899.41 TONNES

JAN 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.70 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 899.41 TONNES

JAN 27//WITH GOLD UP $6.15 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 900.58 TONNES

JAN 24//WITH GOLD UP $6.65 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.76 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 900.58 TONNES

JAN 23/WITH GOLD UP $8.90 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 898.82 TONNES

JAN 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MAMMOTH 19.33 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD ADDED//INVENTORY RESTS AT 898.82 TONES

JAN 21/2010//WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 879.49 TONNES

JAN 17/WITH GOLD UP $9.60 TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: ANOTHER PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.17 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 879.49

JAN 16//WITH GOLD DOWN $3.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.80 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD./INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.32

JAN 15/WITH GOLD UP $9.55 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.52 TONNES

JAN 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.52 TONNES

JAN 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.75 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 7.6 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WAS USED IN THE RAID TODAY////INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.52 TONNES

JAN 10/WITH GOLD UP $5.80 TODAY:NA HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 4.69 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.12 TONNES

JAN 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.81 TONNES

JAN 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.10 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 9.37 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.81 TONNES

JAN 7/WITH GOLD UP $7.00 A GOOD INVENTORY PAPER DEPOSIT OF 0.88 TONNES  IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 896.18 TONNES

JAN 6/WITH GOLD UP #15.40 NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 895.30 TONNES

JAN 3/WITH GOLD UP $24.60: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.05 TONES INTO THE GLD../INVENTORY RESTS AT 895.30

JAN 2/2020//WITH GOLD UP $5.20: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 893.25

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

FEB 12/2019/Inventory rests tonight at 922.23 tonnes

*IN LAST 760 TRADING DAYS: 15.23 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD

*LAST 660 TRADING DAYS: A NET 151.84. TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

FEB 12//WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 364.179 MILLION OZ/

FEB 11/ WITH SILVER DOWN 19 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.166 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 364.179 MILLION OZ//

FEB 10/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF //INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.013 MILLION OZ//

FEB 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 701,000//INVENTORY RESTS THIS WEEKEND AT 363.013 MILLION OZ//

FEB 6//WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY:A SMALL  CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 154,000 OZ AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 362.312 MILLION OZ// AND GENERALLY THIS IS TO PAY FOR FEES LIKE INSURANCE/STORAGE

FEB 4//WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY//SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 362.466 MILLION OZ//

FEB 3/WITH SILVER DOWN 30 CENTS TODAY; A SMALL DEPOSIT OF 560,000 OZ INTO SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 362.466 MILLION OZ/

JAN 31/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A WITHDRAWAL OF 840,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 361/906 MILLION OZ//

JAN 30/WITH SILVER UP 47 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.027 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 362.746 MILLION OZ

JAN 29/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: A BIG  CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.587 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.719 MILLION OZ//

 

JAN 28//WITH SILVER DOWN 59 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 360.132 MILLION OZ

JAN 27//WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 327,000 OZ INTO THE SLV..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 359.805 MILLION OZ//

JAN 24//WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE PAPER DEPOSIT OF 5.975 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 359.805 MILLION OZ//

JAN 23/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 353.830 MILLION OZ..

JAN 22/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.027 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 353.830 OZ

JAN 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 354.437 MILLION OZ//

JAN 17/WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 420,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 354.437 MILLION OZ.

JAN 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: A CONSIDERABLE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 840,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 354,857 MILLION OZ//

JAN 15/WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 355.697 MILLION OZ//

JAN 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 355.697 MILLION OZ//

JAN 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE  CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.261 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 355.697 MILLION OZ//

JAN 10/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 356.958 MILLION OZ//

JAN 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 3.268 MILLION OZ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 356.958 MILLION OZ///

JAN 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 360.226 MILLION OZ//

JAN 7.//WITH SILVER UP 23  CENTS TODAY: ANOTHER MASSIVE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.214 MILLION OZ IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 360.226 MILLION OZ..

JAN 6/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.440 MILLION OZ///

JAN 3/2020//WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY: ANOTHER HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.176 MILLION OZ  IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.440  MILLION OZ///

SINCE DEC 23 WE HAVE HAD A 94 CENT GAIN CORRESPONDING TO A 2.39 MILLION OZ OF PAPER WITHDRAWALS..AN ABSOLUTE FRAUD!

JAN 2/2020/WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.214 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV INVENTORY: INVENTORY RESTS AT 362.616 MILLION OZ

FEB 12.2020:  SLV INVENTORY

364.179 MILLION OZ

 

 

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 1.70/ and libor 6 month duration 1.72

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: + .02

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 1.81%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 1.81

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.00

end

 

 

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

Gold Jewelry Demand In China To Fall On Virus

◆ Sales of gold jewelry in China are set to plummet this year as the economic damage from the deadly coronavirus crisis widens

◆ People not “in mood” to shop for jewelry says China Gold Association

◆ Luk Fook shortens business hours at stores to curb infections

◆ Editors note: China’s gold jewelry demand will likely fall again this year due to both the coronavirus, a slowing economy and a maturing gold market in China. This is seeing more demand for investment grade gold bullion and as the Chinese economy slows down, Chinese demand for gold coins and bars including from retail, HNW and institutional buyers will likely rise. This will more than compensate for the decline in the sales of gold rings, necklaces, bangles and trinkets.

(Bloomberg) — Sales of gold jewelry in China are set to plummet this year as the economic damage from the deadly coronavirus crisis widens.

The death toll from the outbreak has topped 1,100 and shoppers are staying away from public places to avoid infection, while also limiting their spending to basic necessities such as groceries. Jewelry retailers such as Luk Fook Holdings International Ltd. are shortening business hours and managing time off for employees in an effort to prevent the disease from spreading.

“People are not in the mood to shop for jewelry,” said Zhang Yongtao, chief executive officer of the China Gold Association. “Stores and shopping malls are closed because of the virus,” he said, adding that sales of gold jewelry and bars will drop substantially this year.

Metals Focus, a London-based research firm, sees a 6% drop in sales in China this year, extending an estimated 7% drop in 2019 to a seven-year low. It said the decline could turn out to be “particularly acute” given the Lunar New Year has traditionally been the busiest period.

The crisis comes at a time when physical demand is already suffering in China and India, the world’s largest gold consumers, due to rising prices and slower economic growth.

Retailers are already reeling from the long-running, pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong — and Luk Fook saw a significant drop in store sales and daily retail traffic across mainland China, Hong Kong and Macau during the Lunar New Year, according to Deputy Chief Executive Officer Nancy Wong. The company has implemented some staff-cost saving measures and launched Valentine’s Day promotions to cushion the impact of the virus.

Bullion is trading near the highest level since 2013 on lower interest rates, and as geopolitical tensions and the virus outbreak sent investors in search of haven assets. If the spread of the disease continues to accelerate or develops into a pandemic, prolonged weakness in the Chinese economy and its impact on global markets should provide a strong boost to gold, Metals Focus said last week.

Spot gold fell 0.2% to $1,564.41 an ounce on Wednesday, paring this year’s gain to 3.1% after posting an 18% surge in 2019.

Hong Kong retailers could see their profit from the city drop in 2020 amid the outbreak, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Ltd., the world’s second-biggest jewelry chain by market value after Tiffany & Co., plans to shut about 15 of its stores in Hong Kong after net income fell following the demonstrations that drove tourists away.

Jewelry makers are also feeling the pain. The Hong Kong Jewelry Manufacturers’ Association has flagged that operating efficiency at Chinese factories might only be at about 20% to 30% as some workers might still stay at home, and expressed concerns that orders from retailers on the mainland may drop. Retailers’ sales volumes of gold jewelry may plunge 70% in the first quarter, from the same period a year ago, said Chairman Benny Do.

“In my 40 years in the jewelry industry, I have never seen the entire Chinese market ground to a halt like now,” said Do.

Exclusive Gold Offer – For Retail, Pension and HNW Investors

Distributor_colour_RGB

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Key benefits and information here

NEWS and COMMENTARY

Gold flat as new virus cases fall, but concerns remain

Gold slips as stronger dollar, risk-on sentiment weighs

S&P 500, Nasdaq eke out new closing highs

Dollar near four-month high on hopes virus is stabilizing

EM stocks gain as drop in new virus cases boosts confidence

U.S. household debt tops $14 trillion and reaches new record

GOLD PRICES (USD, GBP & EUR – AM/ PM LBMA Fix)

11-Feb-20 1567.70 1570.50, 1212.77 1211.33 & 1436.01 1438.26
10-Feb-20 1574.05 1573.20, 1219.26 1215.93 & 1437.11 1439.64
07-Feb-20 1568.30 1572.65, 1212.45 1214.56 & 1432.33 1433.63
06-Feb-20 1564.75 1563.30, 1205.95 1206.71 & 1421.89 1 422.45
05-Feb-20 1552.20 1553.30, 1189.30 1198.22 & 1407.53 1411.79
04-Feb-20 1571.20 1558.35, 1207.62 1196.66 & 1421.62 1411.09
03-Feb-20 1578.85 1574.75, 1207.98 1209.41 & 1426.65 1425.46

 

Watch Podcast Here

SIGN UP FOR OUR AWARD WINNING MARKET UPDATES HERE

 

Mark O’Byrne
Executive Director

 

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

Money Metals News Service reports what we have been telling you:  JPMorgan Chase as a company is being pursued as a RICO case.  The Dept of Justice  has many chat room discussions plus tapes on JPMorgan’s nefarious activities.  Let us see how this is played out.

(Clint Siegner/MMN/GATA)

JPMorganChase confirmed as target of metals price-rigging prosecution

 Section: 

By Clint Siegner
Money Metals News Service, Eagle, Idaho
Monday, February 10, 2020

The U.S. Department of Justice investigation of criminal activity in the precious metals markets has taken an interesting new turn.

According to Bloomberg, prosecutors are targeting the JPMorganChase & Co. itself and not just the individual traders involved in rigging prices. If convicted, the bank as an institution could be held accountable for years of structured and pervasive cheating.

The DOJ investigation of JPMorgan’s metals trading desk began more than two years ago. It came on the heels of a guilty plea by Deutsche Bank. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2020/02/10/jpmorgan-target-of-metals-pr..

END

Investment bankers are covering their shorts on Palladium due to declining physical supplies.  Craig wonders if this will happen to gold and silver

Craig Hemke/Sprott

Craig Hemke at Sprott Money: A look at Comex palladium

 Section: 

8:33p ET Tuesday, February 11, 2020

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Investment banks are starting to cover their short positions in palladium futures amid a rising price and diminishing supply of metal, the TF Metals Report’s Craig Hemke writes today at Sprott Money. He wonders if this could this signal what is coming in gold and silver futures. Hemke’s analysis is headlined “A Look at Comex Palladium” and it’s posted at Sprott Money here:

https://www.sprottmoney.com/Blog/a-look-at-comex-palladium-craig-hemke-0…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

ABC refinery wants to take on the Perth Mint

(GATA)

Australia’s ABC Refinery takes three more executives from Perth Mint

 Section: 

Since March 2019 ABC Refinery also has employed as its senior precious metals analyst the former Perth Mint analyst Bron Suchecki.

* * *

ABC Refinery Tightens Its Hold on Precious Metals Market
with Major Expansion of Its Treasury and Trading Team

Company Announcement
ABC Refinery, Marrickville, New South Wales, Australia
Monday, February 10, 2020

https://www.abcrefinery.com/resources/media-articles/abc-refinery-tighte…

ABC Refinery has announced the significant expansion of its treasury and precious metals trading capability with the recruitment of Joe Metcalfe as treasurer (formerly Perth Mint deputy CEO), Nishan Kodituwakku as deputy treasurer (former Perth Mint deputy treasurer), and Michael Dymock as senior trader (former Perth Mint senior trader).

… 

This major expansion of ABC Refinery’s treasury and precious metals trading operation transforms it into one of the biggest and most experienced teams in the region, according to ABC Refinery’s head of trading, Mike Ward.

Mr. Ward said the expansion underlines the commitment of Pallion, ABC Refinery’s parent, to providing clients with the full suite of trading services globally.

“This will also significantly increase ABC Refinery’s share of the precious metals trading market in the face of surging global demand,” Mr. Ward said.

ABC Refinery controls about 43 percent of Australia’s gold and silver output as global economic and political uncertainty stoke demand for these safe-haven investments.

In the past 12 months alone, the price for gold in Australian dollars has surged by more than 30 percent.

Pallion Chief Executive Officer Andrew Cochineas said the company was excited to welcome Joe, Nishan, and Michael to the ABC Refinery team.

“These hires are fresh evidence of Pallion’s position as a market leader and an employer of choice in the global precious metals space,” Mr. Cochineas said.

“This expansion of our precious metals trading and treasury team, in conjunction with Pallion’s unique vertically integrated model, positions our group to deliver substantial benefits to the Australasian precious metals sector.”

Mr. Metcalfe, Mr. Kodituwakku, and Mr. Dymock will join a number of other former Perth Mint executives who have made the switch to ABC Refinery and the broader Pallion group, including the Perth Mint’s former chief operating officer, David Woodford, who is now Pallion’s chief commercial officer.

* * *

Toast to a free gold market
with great GATA-label wine

Wine carrying the label of the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee, cases of which were awarded to three lucky donors in GATA’s recent fundraising campaign, are now available for purchase by the case from Fay J Winery LLC in Texarkana, Texas. Each case has 12 bottles and the cost is $240, which includes shipping via Federal Express.

Here’s what the bottles look like:

http://www.gata.org/files/GATA-4-wine-bottles.jpg

Buyers can compose their case by choosing as many as four varietals from the list here:

http://www.gata.org/files/FayJWineryVarietals.jpg

GATA will receive a commission on each case of GATA-label wine sold. So if you like wine and buy it anyway, why not buy it in a way that supports our work to achieve free and transparent markets in the monetary metals?

To order a case of GATA-label wine, please e-mail Fay J Winery at bagman1236@aol.com.

* * *

Support GATA by purchasing
Stuart Englert’s “Rigged”

“Rigged” is a concise explanation of government’s currency market rigging policy and extensively credits GATA’s work exposing it. Ten percent of sales proceeds are contributed to GATA. Buy a copy for $14.99 through Amazon —

https://www.amazon.com/Rigged-Exposing-Largest-Financial-History/dp/1651…

— or for an additional $3 and a penny buy an autographed copy from Englert himself by contacting him at srenglert@comcast.net.

* * *

Join GATA here:

Mining Investment Asia
InterContinental Hotel, Singapore
Tuesday-Thursday, March 17-19, 2020
https://www.mininginvestmentasia.com/

Mines and Money Asia
Conrad Hotel, Hong Kong
Tuesday-Wednesday, March 31-April 1, 2020
https://asia.minesandmoney.com/

* * *

Help keep GATA going:

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

iii) Other physical stories:

//www.jsmineset.com/2020/02/12/chance-prefers-the-prepared/

Chance Prefers The Prepared

Posted February 12th, 2020 at 9:58 AM (CST) by J. Johnson & filed under General Editorial.

Great and Wonderful Wednesday Morning Folks,

       Gold is not being allowed to rise with the trade at $1,568.90 down $1.20 after hitting a low at $1,564.40 with a high to beat at $1,571.80. Silver is also not allowed to rally and is trading at $17.605 down 7.2 cents yet recovering from a middle of the night low at $17.525 with the high to beat not that far away at $17.650. The US Dollar continues its stratospheric rise with its value pegged at 98.635, up 4.1 points after being pushed up to 98.725 with the low at 98.580. All of this happened already, before 5 am pst, the Comex open, the London close, and after Bill Holter posted last night’s finale “and so it begins”.

      The Emerging Markets Currency Watch should really be showing us some things in the very near future but for now we see the Venezuelan Currency holding Gold’s value at 15,669.39 Bolivar taking another 42.95 away from the price with Silver at 175.830 Bolivar showing another 1.049 in value being removed. In Argentina, the Peso’s price for Gold is now gauged at 95,740.46, proving how strong the push lower is, this time around, with Silver doing the same taking away 3.93 A-Pesos with the price at 1,074.61. In Turkey, Gold’s value is now pegged at 9,480.59 proving a reduction of 7.32 Lira with Silver losing 0.440 with its price now at 106.355 T-Lira.

      February Silver’s Delivery Demands is proving an increase in purchases with the Demand Count now at 5 posted up on the board with no trades done so far since the ICE reopened. This proves an increase of 4 more additional buy orders after a Volume of 7 was posted on the board yesterday that had a trading range between $17.715 and $17.695 with the Comex paper contracts forcing the delivery price to close sharply lower (than any real purchases) at $17.573. A nice and fair close, in the eyes of the commissioned regulators, as we wait to see what the DOJ’s criminal element oversight committee tells us what they think. The Overall Open Interest in Silver still remains elevated but is showing a reduction in count of 1,986 Overnighters leaving the total at 221,983 Obligations and after the entire day of trade only showed a Volume of 67,395 inside the March contracts end of trade quote. As of this morning, and during the ICE session, March Silver’s Volume is at 33,681 showing how low yesterday’s activity was compared to right now. James Mc from LeMetroPoleCafé has shown us over the years that these Volumes have exceeded the Open Interest many many times, as we slowly watch this part of the equation slow to a crawl. This should be considered a “tell” for our future price moves.

      February Gold’s Delivery Demands now offers a count of 978 fully paid for contracts waiting for receipts proving a reduction of 605 contracts that either got receipts here, in London, or was an entry or exit of some sort of spread trade. Who the hell knows what’s going on with these Crap Numbers that Comex gives? This morning’s Volume inside the delivery contract has a post of 17 and with a trading range between $1,565.20 and $1,561.00 with the last purchase at $1,564.20. Gold’s Overall Open Interest now sits at 657,956 Overnighters proving the reduction of 827 paper contracts.

      And So It Begins, Force Majeure is being applied to the manufacturing sector and to the buyers of commodities over in China. The reason of course, is this Coronavirus, that is being investigated as a manmade concoction, with Harvard Professor Charles Lieber under arrest. What Is Force Majeure? “Force majeure refers to a clause that is included in contracts to remove liability for natural and unavoidable catastrophes that interrupt the expected course of events and restrict participants from fulfilling obligations”. You can obtain more understanding here.

      What we wonder about most is the timeline of events outside the Virus Infection/Death rate, and its spread, which is rumored to have started very early in December and the way HSBC (Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation) came in and added all those additional short contracts in Gold, that flooded the Comex just before the outbreak occurred. GATA confidant Dave Kranzler from Investment Research Dynamics wrote about the issue last November. Timing is everything and the word “coincidence” is sickening to investors, especially when many of us say and think, “there are no coincidences.” The Diamond Princess Cruise Ship is proving an infection count of 174 showing an increase of 39 in count as the NYP plays with the number of people onboard (3,700 from 2,500??). Let us also recall the incubation guessing’s that increased from 2, to 6, to 14, to 24, over the past few weeks, helping to prove the news is still not the news and we are not getting trustworthy data, unless the governments and their mouthpieces are learning the curve as we do.

      It’s hard to remain positive in this environment, but it is healthy to do so, and it makes the smile on our face easy to keep. So, please stay positive and know, that “Chance Prefers The Prepared”, in all things, as we wait for more cancellations via Forced Majeure and the eventual removal of the manipulated shorts from Comex, as always …

Stay Strong!

  1. Johnson

end

The citizens of Utah must impeach Romney.  He is hinting that he might oppose Trump’s Fed nominee Judy Shelton

(zerohedge)

“Not Terribly Encouraging”: Mitt Romney Hints He Might Oppose Fed Nominee Judy Shelton In Latest Attack On Trump

Is this the beginning of the second round of Republican resistance to President Trump’s slate of nominees for the Fed board of governors? Or just the latest example of Mitt Romney trying to sabotage Trump out of spite?

Or maybe he simply hates low interest rates?

Whatever the reason, the freshman senator from Utah is reportedly ‘undecided’ on whether he’ll back one of Trump’s two latest nominees for the two empty seats on the board of governors.

Erik Wasson

@elwasson

ROMNEY undecided on controversial Fed nominee Judy Shelton, colleague @NOgnanovich scoops. Calls her record, which includes calling for return to gold standard, “not terribly encouraging”

100 people are talking about this

Judy Shelton, known for her opposition to the Fed and support for the gold standard, has repeatedly spoken out against the Fed’s loose monetary policy. But like Stephen Moore before her, she has changed tack more recently to support President Trump’s agenda for the “non-partisan” and “apolitical” Fed.

Last year, we reminded readers about this in a post about gold’s reaction to the news of Shelton’s nomination that on April 21, Shelton published an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal entitled “The Case for Monetary Regime Change.”

Since President Trump announced his intention to nominate Herman Cain and Stephen Moore to serve on the Federal Reserve’s board of governors, mainstream commentators have made a point of dismissing anyone sympathetic to a gold standard as crankish or unqualified.

But it is wholly legitimate, and entirely prudent, to question the infallibility of the Federal Reserve in calibrating the money supply to the needs of the economy. No other government institution had more influence over the creation of money and credit in the lead-up to the devastating 2008 global meltdown. And the Fed’s response to the meltdown may have exacerbated the damage by lowering the incentive for banks to fund private-sector growth.

What began as an emergency decision in the wake of the financial crisis to pay interest to commercial banks on excess reserves has become the Fed’s main mechanism for conducting monetary policy. To raise interest rates, the Fed increases the rate it pays banks to keep their $1.5 trillion in excess reserves—eight times what is required—parked in accounts at Federal Reserve district banks. Rewarding banks for holding excess reserves in sterile depository accounts at the Fed rather than making loans to the public does not help create business or spur job creation.

Meanwhile, for all the talk of a “rules-based” system for international trade, there are no rules when it comes to ensuring a level monetary playing field. The classical gold standard established an international benchmark for currency values, consistent with free-trade principles. Today’s arrangements permit governments to manipulate their currencies to gain an export advantage.

Money is meant to serve as a reliable unit of account and store of value across borders and through time. It’s entirely reasonable to ask whether this might be better assured by linking the supply of money and credit to gold or some other reference point as opposed to relying on the judgment of a dozen or so monetary officials meeting eight times a year to set interest rates. A linked system could allow currency convertibility by individuals (as under a gold standard) or foreign central banks (as under Bretton Woods). Either way, it could redress inflationary pressures.

Judy Shelton is author of the 1998 book Money Meltdown; and she once concluded that “central bankers, and their defenders, have proven less than omniscient.”

So why does Trump want Shelton on the board? Simple: she previously said that if appointed, she would lower interest rates to 0% in one to two years.

Last year, Trump’s first slate of candidates for the two empty seats, former Godfather’s Pizza CEO Herman Cain and WSJ op-ed columnist Stephen Moore, were pulled after Republicans raised questions about sexual misconduct allegations and other issues.

Jim Rickards and others said at the time that the end of Moore’s nomination would open the door for a Shelton nomination. Trump is also reportedly set to nominate Christopher Waller, an uncontroversial Fed insider and executive vice president and director of research at the St. Louis Fed.

Every time Romney tries to screw Trump by siding with Democrats on legislation, voting to impeach, or stymieing his nominees, just remember this photo from Romney’s dinner with Trump when he was supposedly under consideration for Secretary of State.

The question now is whether other Republican moderates who don’t exactly have the best relationship with Trump – people like Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski – join Romney.

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early WEDNESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 6.9703/ GETTING VERY DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.9705   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 25.23 POINTS OR 0.87%

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 239.78 POINTS OR 0.87%

 

2. Nikkei closed UP 175.23 POINTS OR 0.74%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL GREEN/

 

 

 

USA dollar index UP TO 98.76/Euro FALLS TO 1.0912

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. –.05/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 109.97/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 50.70 and Brent: 55.13

3f Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE UP/OFF- SHORE: UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO -.38%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 0.93% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 0.34%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.31: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 0.98…FIRST TIME BREAKING THE ONE PERCENT YIELD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

3k Gold at $1566.25 silver at: 17.56   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 41/100 in roubles/dollar) 62.97

3m oil into the 50 dollar handle for WTI and 55 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 109.97 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9752 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0643 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to 0.38%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 1.64% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.08%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 6.0369..

World Stocks Storm To Record High As Traders “Believe All Will Be OK With The Coronavirus Situation”

Another drop in the number of new coronavirus cases and Powell’s cheerful view of the economy (with the backstop of more easing should the coronavirus epidemic turn out worse than expected) boosted global stocks for a third day on Wednesday and sparked a 2% rally in oil prices, on hopes the epidemic’s effects would be contained.

S&P futures indicated Wall Street would extend gains from Tuesday, when the S&P 500 and Nasdaq posted record closing highs, gaining overnight along with European stocks on Wednesday…

… after China reported its lowest number of new coronavirus cases since late January, lending weight to a prediction from its senior medical adviser that the outbreak might be over by April.

The drop encouraged investors to get back into equities at the expense of safe-haven assets such as bonds, gold and the Japanese yen which benefited as the virus death toll mounted. Riskier, higher-yielding bonds also rallied, with yields on 10-year Greek governments bonds slipping under 1% for the first time ever .

“If you look at the share indexes and other risky assets it seems like people now believe all will be okay with the coronavirus situation,” said Francois Savary, chief investment officer at Swiss wealth manager Prime Partners.

MSCI’s global equity index rose 0.2% to stand just off Tuesday’s record highs. The pan-European Stoxx 600 index rose to a record as automobile stocks — which depend on exports to China — jumped 1.2%. Carmakers and miners led the advance in Europe even as data showed a deep slump in euro-area industrial output at the end of last year.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks gained, led by communications and technology stocks. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced for a second day. Markets in the region were mixed, with Taiwan’s Taiex Index and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rising and Indonesia’s Jakarta Stock Price Index falling. Chinese shares rose almost 1% and the offshore-traded yuan reached two-week highs after the death toll from the coronavirus reached 1,115. President Xi Jinping vowed that China would meet its economic goals while winning the battle against the deadly pandemic.

Despite the clear return of market euphoria, many analysts still caution against complacency over the economic fallout. Some Chinese firms have reported job cuts caused by damage to manufacturing supply chains. Savary at Prime Partners agreed, noting the dollar is near four-month highs, 10-year U.S. yields are some 30 basis points below early-January levels and demand for Swiss francs is high.

“Investors are not completely convinced the coronavirus is under control … they are trying to hedge their equity bets by taking exposure to safe-havens at the same time,” he said.

In short, we are back to the good news is good, bad news is better regime that defined much of the past decade.

Markets also got a boost from signs President Donald Trump might be re-elected in November, since centrist candidates for the Democratic nomination appear to be struggling and Biden’s candidacy is now in tatters after his disastrous performance in New Hampshire where we didn’t win a single delegate.

“Trump had a great start into the U.S. election season. After the early end of the impeachment trial in the Senate and the Iowa caucus chaos for the Democrats, betting markets suggest that Trump has a 58% probability of winning re-election on 3 November,” Berenberg said.

Summarizing the New Hampshire primary results this morning, after 86% of the precincts reported, Sanders has been declared the winner with 25.8% of the vote, followed by Buttigieg in second with 24.4%, and then Klobuchar at 19.7%. Both Warren and Former Vice President Biden finished in a distant 4th and 5th at 9.3% and 8.4% respectively. In terms of the narrative and expectations, Klobuchar significantly outperformed her polls following a strong debate performance last Friday, with exit polls showing that roughly 50% of NH voters deciding in the last 3 days. Buttigieg also seems to have outperformed in a second straight state. Klobuchar’s outperformance may have come at the other Moderate’s expense – keeping Buttigieg from beating Sanders overall and keeping Biden under the 15% threshold to win proportional delegates. The Moderate wing of the primary continues to outperform the Left wing – Biden/Buttigieg/Klobuchar with 52.5 % and Sanders/Warren with 35.1% respectively – but it is not clear whether voters will jump between those groups. Biden left NH early in the day to start campaigning in South Carolina, indicating that the disappointing results in the first two states will not stop his primary campaign. It seems that we will not have the traditional winnowing seen after Iowa and New Hampshire, with all five major candidates moving on to Nevada and South Carolina. The field will likely only finally clear once over a third of delegates are awarded after Super Tuesday, but even then Former New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg has already been campaigning in those delegate-rich states.

In geopolitics, the US Army is planning to set up a new military command post to cooperate with European allies in countering potential threats from Russia. The US said it was prepared to sign a deal with the Taliban that would see the withdrawal of US troops and the start of peace talks between the insurgents and the Afghan government, although a deal would only proceed if the Taliban adhere to a pledge to reduce violence over a 7-day period. Elsewhere, Turkish President Erdogan will do whatever is necessary; includes air and ground means – Erdogan accuses Russian forces of a massacre in Idlib – Erdogan and Russian President Putin discussed the situation via a phone call. Erdogan adds that Turkey will hopefully see inflation below 8.5% year-end target, trend of falling interest rates will continue.

In rates, yields on Treasuries and German Bunds rose around 2 basis points, the former rising to 1.62%; ten-year U.S. yields are now 12 bps off the four-and-a-half-month lows reached in late January. Yields rose on Tuesday after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the U.S. economy was “resilient”. Powell also said he was monitoring the coronavirus, because it could lead to disruptions that affect the global economy.

In FX, the dollar was steady while currencies such as the Thai baht and Korean won, reliant on Chinese tourism and trade, gained 0.3% to 0.5%, as the yen slipped 0.3% to a three-week low against the dollar. The day’s big currency mover was the New Zealand dollar, which rose more than 1% against the greenback after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept rates unchanged and indicated it would remain on hold barring an outsized impact from the coronavirus outbreak. Traders pared odds for an RBNZ rate cut by May to around 30% from almost 50% before the decision; the Aussie advanced with the kiwi. Sweden’s krona shrugged off a downward revision of the Riksbank’s inflation forecast as the central bank kept its rate path intact, signaling a repo rate at zero in the coming years. The pound rose and gilts slid as money markets trimmed bets on BOE easing.

In commodities, oil rallied back above $50 a barrel as investors waited to see whether Russia would accept an OPEC+ plan for production cuts to cope with demand destruction from the coronavirus.

Looking at the day ahead, we’ll hear from Fed Chair Powell once again as he appears before the Senate Banking Committee, while there’ll also be remarks from Philadelphia Fed President Harker and the ECB’s Chief Economist Lane. Data releases to look out for include the MBA’s weekly mortgage applications and the monthly budget statement for January.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.3% to 3,367.50
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.3% to 429.84
  • MXAP up 0.5% to 170.72
  • MXAPJ up 0.8% to 555.01
  • Nikkei up 0.7% to 23,861.21
  • Topix down 0.04% to 1,718.92
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.9% to 27,823.66
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.9% to 2,926.90
  • Sensex up 0.9% to 41,584.82
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.5% to 7,088.20
  • Kospi up 0.7% to 2,238.38
  • German 10Y yield rose 2.0 bps to -0.371%
  • Euro down 0.03% to $1.0913
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 1.6 bps to 0.802%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 4.8 bps to 0.316%
  • Brent futures up 1.8% to $55.00/bbl
  • Gold spot little changed at $1,566.82
  • U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 98.73

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • The coronavirus outbreak in China could become a negative shock to global economic growth in the short term, ECB Governing Council member Gabriel Makhlouf says
  • A deep slump in euro-area industrial output at the end of last year highlights the scale of the challenge the sector will face in 2020. The 2.1% drop — the steepest in almost four years — will raise doubts about a meaningful rebound in momentum
  • Some of the world’s major bond funds are rekindling their love for Chinese government debt, as an unexpected rally in recent weeks took the 10-year yield to the lowest level since late 2016
  • President Recep Tayyip Erdogan vowed to strike Syria should there be any new aggression against Turkish soldiers deployed across the border, escalating threats against Damascus after winning rare support from the U.S.
  • Fidelity International is increasing long positions in U.S. and Australian sovereign bonds while reducing exposure to credit in some sectors amid the widening fallout from the coronavirus
  • The promise of yields when many bonds pay holders close to nothing is driving a boom in sales of hybrid securities which combine elements of both debt and equities. 3.7 billion euros worth of hybrid bonds have been issued since the start of the year in Europe. This marks the fastest pace of issuance since at least 2014, based on data compiled by Bloomberg
  • New Zealand’s central bank left interest rates unchanged and signaled it won’t need to cut them further unless the coronavirus outbreak has a bigger-than-expected impact on economic growth
  • Bernie Sanders won the New Hampshire primary Tuesday. With 84% of the precincts reporting, Sanders had 25.9% of the vote and Buttigieg had 24.4%. Klobuchar was third with 19.7%, according to the Associated Press, which called the race. Elizabeth Warren finished fourth with 9.4%, while longtime front runner Joe Biden had 8.4%
  • President Xi Jinping vowed China would meet its economic goals while winning the battle against the deadly coronavirus that has claimed 1,115 lives. Japan found 39 new cases of the coronavirus aboard a cruise ship, bringing the total number of cases from the vessel to 174
  • Preliminary genetic sequence data indicating the presence of a SARS-like virus in central China was known about two weeks before key information was publicly released, scientists said
  • All four U.S. government prosecutors who backed a long prison stay for Trump ally Roger Stone resigned from the case, a stunning rebuke to the Justice Department after it cut his recommended sentence by more than half
  • Oil edged back above $50 a barrel as investors waited to see whether Russia would accept an OPEC+ plan for production cuts to cope with demand destruction from the coronavirus.

Asian equity markets were mostly higher but with gains initially limited as coronavirus fears lingered and following the lack of conviction on Wall St. where US stocks notched fresh record highs at the open before gradually fading the moves throughout the day. ASX 200 (+0.5%) traded positively with the biggest movers driven by earnings releases including the largest of the Big 4 banks CBA, resulting in outperformance in the top-weighted financials sector, while Nikkei 225 (+0.7%) was also lifted as it played catch up on return from holiday and with SoftBank sitting on double-digit percentage gains following the federal court approval of the merger between its unit Sprint with T-Mobile. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (+0.9%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.9%) were kept afloat but with the mainland initially indecisive after the PBoC refrained from liquidity operations for a neutral daily position and as participants contemplated over the ongoing outbreak in which the number of cases and death toll continued to mount albeit at a slower pace with the additional number of cases at 2015 which is the lowest since January 30th. Finally, 10yr JGBs were lower amid the gains in Japanese stocks and following the mixed results at the 10yr inflation-indexed auction, while pressure was also seen in New Zealand bonds in the aftermath of the less dovish statement from the RBNZ.

Top Asian News

  • Top Indian Iron Ore Miner Targets 50% Output Jump Next Year
  • China Life Group Said to Seek Hong Kong Listing Via Unit
  • Erdogan Escalates Threats Against Assad Loyalists in Idlib
  • Rewards Outweigh Risks for Assad in Drive to Retake Idlib

European equities are mostly higher [Eurostoxx 50 +0.6%] following on from a similar APAC session, which saw Japanese markets return from yesterday’s holiday and close with firm gains. Bourses are largely in the green with the exception of the SMI (-0.2%), led lower by heavyweights Roche (-0.7%), Nestle (-0.6%) and Novartis (-0.3%) – which together account for ~55% of SMI – as sectors reflect risk appetite (healthcare, consumer staples lag and utilities lag). In terms of individual movers – dismal earnings see ABN AMRO (-7.0%) at the foot of the pan-European index after net income and dividend printed sub-par, with interest income falling and impairments rising. On the flip side, Heineken (+6.2%) stands as a top Stoxx 600 gainer following their earnings in which net profit and consolidated beer volume topped estimates, leading to the best performance in over a decade. Kering (+2.2%) shares also benefit from their numbers after metrics beat estimates across the board including the much-watched Gucci Q4 comparable sales growth. Kering also noted that the uncertainties in China do not call into question the Co’s fundamentals in the luxury industry. Thus, European luxury stocks receive tailwinds: Swatch (+1.5%), Richemont (+1%) and LVMH (+0.6%) all trade higher in tandem.

Top European News

  • ECB’s Makhlouf Sees Risk of Negative Growth Shock on Coronavirus
  • Euro-Area Industrial Output Slumps Most in Almost Four Years
  • U.K. to Regulate Internet in Crackdown on Social Media Firms
  • Google Claims EU Crackdown Is a Threat to Internet Innovation
  • Riksbank Clings On to Zero Despite Cutting Inflation Outlook

In FX, the Kiwi is flying and leaving G10 rivals far behind on the back of another shift from the RBNZ towards ending its easing cycle. Nzd/Usd has rebounded sharply following February’s policy guidance tweaks and updated OCR projections that signal no change for the foreseeable future compared to 10 bp easing previously. In fact, the rate path is now pointing to a 1.10% benchmark price by mid-2021 vs 0.9% out to March next year last time, and the only caveat appears to be severe economic contagion from China’s virus. Nzd/Usd is now eyeing resistance ahead of 0.6500 from sub-0.6400 lows and the Aud/Nzd cross has snapped back towards 1.0400 following transitory forays just above 1.0500 of late. However, the Aussie is also outpacing its US peer that is largely consolidating after failing to extend its winning run when the DXY hit a brick wall inches before 99.000, as Aud/Usd probes firmer ground on the 0.6700 handle with some independent impetus from improved Westpac consumer confidence overnight.

  • GBP/CHF/CAD/EUR – All benefiting from the aforementioned flagging Greenback, albeit to varying degrees, with Cable also capitalising on Tuesday’s UK GDP data rather than any dovish BoE nuances and extending recovery gains beyond 1.2980 towards 1.3000 and the 10 DMA that falls just shy of the big figure (1.2997). Meanwhile, Eur/Gbp is hovering a few pips above 0.8400 as the single currency remains leggy around 1.0900 against the Buck after yet another Eurozone data miss via pan IP and Eur/Usd runs into headwinds at 1.0925. Note also, heavy option expiry interest between the round number and 1.0910 in 1.6 bn may be capping the headline pair ahead of the NY cut. Elsewhere, the Franc is still straddling 0.9750, but trending bullishly vs the Euro around a 1.0650 axis that prefaces multi-year peaks or troughs for the cross, while the Loonie is gleaning more underlying support from oil’s revival to hold above 1.3300 against its NA neighbour.
  • SCANDI – In contrast to the RBNZ, nothing new at all emanated from the Riksbank’s latest policy meeting as the repo trajectory matched December’s (flat) profile and accompanying statement underlined the likelihood that zero percent will prevail until the end of the forecast horizon. Nevertheless, Eur/Sek has drifted down towards 10.5000 as none of the regular Board dissenters entered reservations and Governor Ingves reiterated the on hold message in the ensuing press conference. However, Eur/Nok has fallen further on the crude price rebound noted above to test bids/support in front of 10.0500.
  • EM – Ongoing recovery gains across the region and the Rand only partially hampered by another SA data miss (retail sales), but no respite for the Lira as Turkish President Erdogan ramps up his verbal threats to repel attacks by Syrian Government sources to prevent the Try maintaining an attempt to regain 6.0000+ status.

In commodities, WTI and Brent front-month futures continue their upward trajectories with the contracts piggy-backing the broad risk appetite across the market, amid the slowing rate of COVID-19 cases/deaths coupled with reports of positive therapies and resumptions in Chinese operations. WTI Mar’20 futures reside north of USD 50.50/bbl with prices eyeing USD 51.00/bbl ahead of potential resistance at the USD 51.50/bbl mark, which coincides with the 7th Feb high. Brent Apr’20 futures came across mild resistance in early EU trade at USD 55.38/bbl (7th Feb high) ahead of further potential resistance around USD 55.55/bbl (6th Feb high). On the OPEC front, a definite OPEC+ meeting date remains in question, with desks noting that the longer we wait, the more likely that the meeting will take place in March as opposed to late-February. Russian Energy Minister Novak will today be meeting with domestic oil companies to discuss Moscow’s stance on deeper/prolonged output reductions. Elsewhere, yesterday’s APIs, which showed a larger-than-forecast build (+6mln vs. Exp. +3mln), did little to provide sustained pressure in prices as sentiment underpins the benchmarks – participants will be on the lookout to see if the weekly DoE numbers align with those of the API. Yesterday also saw the release of the EIA STEO ahead of today’s OPEC monthly oil report. The STEO cut 2020 oil demand growth by 310k BPD, downgraded US crude output forecasts and noted the uncertainty surrounding the virus outbreak, again little sustained reaction. Next up, OPEC’s monthly report will garner interest as this is the report that will encapsulate coronavirus forecasts as well as OPEC output since the December meeting. In terms of metals, spot gold trades lacklustre on either side of the 21 DMA (USD ~1566/oz), in-fitting with the current risk appetite. Copper prices remain supported by the risk tone but within yesterday’s ranges awaiting the next catalyst. Finally, Dalian iron ore futures hit three-week highs as coronavirus cases/deaths slowed and following a 22.4% YY drop in Vale’s Q4 iron ore production.

US Event Calendar

  • 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, prior 5.0%
  • 2pm: Monthly Budget Statement, est. $10.0b deficit, prior $8.68b

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

We’re jumping straight to the New Hampshire primary results this morning where, after 86% of the precincts reported, Sanders has been declared the winner with 25.8% of the vote, followed by Buttigieg in second with 24.4%, and then Klobuchar at 19.7%. Both Warren and Former Vice President Biden finished in a distant 4th and 5th at 9.3% and 8.4% respectively. In terms of the narrative and expectations, Klobuchar significantly outperformed her polls following a strong debate performance last Friday, with exit polls showing that roughly 50% of NH voters deciding in the last 3 days. Buttigieg also seems to have outperformed in a second straight state. Klobuchar’s outperformance may have come at the other Moderate’s expense – keeping Buttigieg from beating Sanders overall and keeping Biden under the 15% threshold to win proportional delegates. The Moderate wing of the primary continues to outperform the Left wing – Biden/Buttigieg/Klobuchar with 52.5 % and Sanders/Warren with 35.1% respectively – but it is not clear whether voters will jump between those groups. Biden left NH early in the day to start campaigning in South Carolina, indicating that the disappointing results in the first two states will not stop his primary campaign. It seems that we will not have the traditional winnowing seen after Iowa and New Hampshire, with all five major candidates moving on to Nevada and South Carolina. The field will likely only finally clear once over a third of delegates are awarded after Super Tuesday, but even then Former New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg has already been campaigning in those delegate-rich states.

Prior to those results, the S&P 500 (+0.17%) and NASDAQ (+0.11%) posted another round of new record highs yesterday however it wasn’t without a bit of a pullback into the close. Indeed, the gloss was taken off after the Federal Trade Commission issued orders to Google, Apple, Facebook, Amazon and Microsoft to turn over a decade’s worth of information on past small acquisitions. That could provide insights into antitrust issues and the Commission noted could lead to enforcement action. Microsoft (-2.26%) and Facebook (-2.76%) were the biggest movers post the news.

Nevertheless, the moves yesterday still mean both indices have climbed on six out of the last seven sessions for cumulative gains of +4.07% and +5.33%% respectively. For the NASDAQ, the last time we had a better seven-day performance was October 2014. In credit US HY spreads were also 14bps tighter with the other micro story yesterday being the big rally across the Sprint complex following the announcement that T-Mobile had won court approval for its $26.5bn merger with the wireless company. For what it’s worth, Sprint is currently the second biggest issuer in the US HY index with around $20bn of bonds with the 2028 bonds as an example up around 18pts yesterday post the news.

As for bonds markets, they were comparatively less eventful with 10y Treasuries +3.1bps higher yesterday with a fairly muted reaction to the slew of Fedspeak – more on that shortly. The main measures of the yield curves were also little changed while in commodities it was a better day for oil with Brent and WTI pulling back from their one-year lows the previous day, up +1.39% and +0.75% (while being up a similar amount this morning and copper was up +1.27%.

A quick refresh of our screens shows that Asian markets are higher this morning too with the Nikkei (+0.54%), Hang Seng (+0.86%), Shanghai Comp (+0.39%) and Kospi (+0.61%) all advancing. In FX the big mover has been the New Zealand dollar which is up +0.84% after the RBNZ left rates on hold and forecasts showed no further rate cuts in this year. As for the latest on the coronavirus, the death toll in China now stands at 1,113 with confirmed cases at 44,653. Japan also found 39 new cases of the virus on the quarantined cruise ship bringing the total tally on-board to 174. Meanwhile, in an encouraging sign that the virus outbreak might be plateauing in China – Hubei province reported 1,638 additional cases overnight, the lowest daily level this month.

To be fair, there wasn’t a huge amount of news to report yesterday away from the New Hampshire results with central bankers providing most of the material. Fed Chair Powell was the main highlight as he testified before the House Financial Services Committee. In his opening statement, he referenced the coronavirus, saying that “we are closely monitoring the emergence of the coronavirus, which could lead to disruptions in China that spill over to the rest of the global economy.” However, in response to questions, he said that it was too early to say about the effects on the US. In his opening statement, Powell also said that “Putting the federal budget on a sustainable path when the economy is strong would help ensure that policymakers have the space to use fiscal policy to assist in stabilizing the economy during a downturn. A more sustainable federal budget could also support the economy’s growth over the long term.” You can read our piece last week (link here) on the latest huge increase in long-term debt projections from the CBO.

A number of Powell’s colleagues also spoke yesterday. Quarles supported the Fed’s continued purchasing of Treasury bills, while reiterating that it was important for the central bank’s balance sheet to shrink following a recession. Bullard addressed concerns with Coronavirus, saying that “previous viral outbreaks suggests that the effects on U.S. interest rates can be tangible and last until the outbreak is clearly contained. He explicitly pointed to the effects on the 10-year Treasury yield of other viral outbreaks, such as SARS, swine flu, avian flu, and Ebola. Bullard has been amongst the most dovish committee members – he was ahead of the curve last year in pushing for a shift to cutting rates – so it is notable that he is not pushing for a cut yet due to the virus. Kashkari also spoke later in the day on the need to possibly adjust monetary policy if the virus hits the country in scale, though he expressed uncertainty in its ability to contain it.

On the other side of the Atlantic, ECB President Lagarde was speaking before the European Parliament yesterday, where she said that “monetary policy cannot, and should not, be the only game in town. The longer our accommodative measures remain in place, the greater the risk that side effects will become more pronounced.” She also called for “a more complete EMU”, with banking union, capital markets union and a central stabilisation function to defend against shocks.

Away from all that and in terms of the data, the number of job openings in the US fell to a 2-year low of 6.423m in December (vs. 6.925m expected), which marked the first annual decline in the number of job openings since 2009. That said, the quits rate remained at 2.3% for the 4th consecutive month, while hirings rose for a second month running to 5.907m. Separately, data from the UK out yesterday showed GDP in Q4 was unchanged from the previous quarter, in line with expectations, while the monthly reading for December showed the economy grew by +0.3% (vs. +0.2% expected).

Staying on the UK, Brussels fired a warning shot ahead of the upcoming trade negotiations yesterday, with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen saying that the “unique ambition in terms of access to the Single Market”, with a zero tariffs and zero quotas for trade in goods, would “require corresponding guarantees on fair competition and the protection of social, environmental and consumer standards.” So, the EU are sticking to the line that the level playing field is required for a trading relationship like this, even though Prime Minister Johnson explicitly said last week that there was “no need for a free trade agreement to involve accepting EU rules on competition policy, subsidies, social protection, the environment, or anything similar”. There was also some news on financial services, with chief negotiator Michal Barnier saying that “Certain people in the UK should not kid themselves about this: there will not be general, ongoing open-ended equivalence in financial services”.

To the day ahead, where we’ll hear from Fed Chair Powell once again as he appears before the Senate Banking Committee, while there’ll also be remarks from Philadelphia Fed President Harker and the ECB’s Chief Economist Lane. Data releases to look out for include the Euro Area’s industrial production for December, and from the US there’s the MBA’s weekly mortgage applications and the monthly budget statement for January. Finally, the Riksbank will be announcing their latest interest rate decision.

END

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)WEDNESDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 25.23 POINTS OR 0.87%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 239.78 POINTS OR 0.87%   /The Nikkei closed UP 175.23 POINTS OR 0.87%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .47%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.9703 /Oil UP TO 50.70 dollars per barrel for WTI and 55.14 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 6.9703 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.9705 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED/CORONAVIRUS//  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 C CHINA

CHINA/HUAWEI

the Wall Street Journal publishes highly classified evidence proving that Huawei using the backdoor on their systems to spy for Beijing.  They the uSA will use all its force trying to stop Europe from using the Huawei 5 G network which is about 30% less in cost than Erickson and Nokia

(zerohedge)

 

WSJ Publishes “Highly Classified” Evidence Proving Huawei Spies For Beijing

Late last week, British media reported the details of a particularly tense phone call between President Trump and UK PM Boris Johnson. During the call, Trump effectively chewed out Johnson over the UK’s decision to allow Huawei equipment to be used during the construction of “non-core” segments of the country’s 5G network

Though Johnson tried to play down the significance of the decision, there’s no question that he had willingly risked a serious break in his relationship with Trump and Washington. We suspect Trump was so enraged because he has frequently bragged about striking a “big, beautiful” trade deal with Johnson. As the Vindman twins can attest, Trump doesn’t tolerate embarrassment.

It’s possible Johnson might be willing to abandon Huawei, but such a decision is not without cost. Using Huawei’s equipment would allow telecom companies to save money building the network, as parts by rivals Ericsson and Nokia are far more expensive than equipment made in China. Perhaps Johnson is simply waiting to cash in this chit.

For whatever reason, the Trump Administration isn’t giving up on its pressure campaign. Instead, it appears to be cranking up the pressure.

To wit: On Tuesday, WSJ published an expansive report tying together what appear to be the broad strokes of the threat that Huawei poses to national security.

In other words, Britain tried to call America’s bluff, but President Trump and the administration are coming through with the goods.

Not that there was ever really any doubt. Dutch intelligenceMicrosoftAmerican intelligence and others have uncovered and shared evidence that Huawei exploited so-called ‘backdoors’ in their systems. We’ve noted the results of these investigations repeatedly over the years.

Now, it appears the administration has sanctioned a leak to smear Huawei and further underscore the Pentagon’s warnings to America’s allies that Huawei represents a serious national security threat.

“Highly classified” US intelligence that was shared with European allies last year included details of Huawei’s capabilities, including exploring how it covertly infiltrates mobile-phone networks via “back doors” designed for use by local law enforcement. Typically, governments ask that all telecoms systems include a “back door” to allow law enforcement access. But in the equipment Huawei builds, the Huawei apparently  Huawei has reportedly had this capability for more than a decade, according to WSJ.

US officials say Huawei has built equipment that secretly preserves the manufacturer’s ability to access networks through these interfaces without the carriers’ knowledge. The officials didn’t provide details of where they believe Huawei is able access networks. Other manufacturers don’t have the same ability, they said.

“We have evidence that Huawei has the capability secretly to access sensitive and personal information in systems it maintains and sells around the world,” said national security adviser Robert O’Brien.

“Huawei does not disclose this covert access to its local customers, or the host nation national-security agencies,” another senior U.S. official said.

Per WSJ, US officials stopped short of detailing explicit examples of Chinese spies or state-sponsored hackers exploiting these backdoors, and wouldn’t say if they had any evidence of this nature.

In response to Washington’s allegations, Huawei has claimed it would never cooperate with the Chinese government to spy on foreign customers. Few take the company seriously, especially considering its founder’s association with the PLA.

The intelligence cited by WSJ has been shared with American allies for months, and some of it was recently declassified to allow more flexibility regarding who can see it (though some of the material remains “highly classified”). This is presumably how it got in the hands of two WSJ reporters.

Washington has been sharing the intelligence with allies for months, and declassified part of it last week to allow for wider distribution, according to U.S. officials. It hasn’t yet been publicly disclosed or reported.

Though it’s also possible that Matthew Pottinger, the Trump Administration’s point man on Asia and a former Wall Street Journal reporter (coincidence?), handed the scoop to his former employer, possibly via an old friend who’s still an editor over at WSJ’s Midtown newsroom.

Pottinger has apparently been tasked with leading the effort to convince America’s European allies to listen to the administration’s warnings, and put their bitterness about Trump’s aggressive trade policies and opposition to the EU as an entity aside.

Matthew Pottinger, a U.S. deputy national security adviser, traveled to Berlin in late December to share the intelligence with senior officials in Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government, according to U.S. and German officials.

Foreign capitals have had to weigh Huawei’s alleged threat to national security against what many carrier executives say is its high-quality gear and competitive pricing.

If the UK is a lost cause (and that’s not a sure thing yet), the Trump administration’s next major flashpoint in the campaign against Huawei is coming during the next few weeks, when the German legislature is expected to vote on a bill that would give Huawei full access to Germany’s 5G market in exchange for additional “security guarantees.” Beijing and Huawei have promised clients the company would undertake a “pledge” not to aid the Chinese government in surveillance. Some European leaders appear inclined to take Beijing’s word for it and roll the dice to cut costs.

Perhaps they’re using their disdain for Trump to justify allowing Chinese state actors unfettered access to their civilian and military communications networks.

END
CHINA/CORONAVIRUS
CHINA’S DILEMMA:/
(courtesy Charles Hugh Smith)_

China’s Fatal Dilemma

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

Ending the limited quarantine and falsely proclaiming China safe for visitors and business travelers will only re-introduce the virus to workplaces and infect foreigners.

China faces an inescapably fatal dilemma: to save its economy from collapse, China’s leadership must end the quarantines soon and declare China “safe for travel and open for business” to the rest of the world.

But since 5+ million people left Wuhan to go home for New Years, dispersing throughout China, the virus has likely spread to small cities, towns and remote villages with few if any coronavirus test kits and few medical facilities to administer the tests multiple times to confirm the diagnosis. (It can take multiple tests to confirm the diagnosis, as the first test can be positive and the second test negative.)

As a result, Chinese authorities cannot possibly know how many people already have the virus in small-town / rural China or how many asymptomatic carriers caught the virus from people who left Wuhan. They also cannot possibly know how many people with symptoms are avoiding the official dragnet by hiding at home.

No data doesn’t mean no virus.

If the virus has already been dispersed throughout China by asymptomatic carriers who left Wuhan without realizing they were infected with the pathogen, then regardless of whatever official assurances may be announced in the coming days/weeks, it won’t be safe for foreigners to travel in China nor will it be safe for Chinese workers to return to factories, markets, etc.

But if China doesn’t “open for business” with unrestricted travel soon, its economy will suffer calamitous declines as fragile mountains of debt and leverage collapse and supply chain disruptions push global corporations to find permanent alternatives elsewhere.

Here’s the fatal dilemma:

  • maintaining the quarantine long enough to truly contain it (which requires extending it to the entire country) will be fatal to China’s economy.
  • But ending the limited quarantine and falsely proclaiming China safe for visitors and business travelers will only re-introduce the virus to workplaces and infect foreigners who will return home as asymptomatic carriers, spreading the virus in their home nations.

Falsely declaring China safe will endanger everyone credulous enough to believe Chinese officials, and destroy whatever thin shreds of credibility China may yet have in the global economy and community. That will set off chains of causality that will destroy China’s economy just as surely as a three-month nationwide quarantine.

 

Who will be foolish enough to believe anything Chinese officials proclaim after foreigners who accepted the false assurances of safety return home with the coronavirus?

Anyone planning to receive goods via air freight from China might want to digest this report: Persistence of coronaviruses on inanimate surfaces and its inactivation with biocidal agents Endemic human coronaviruses (HCoV) can persist on inanimate surfaces like metal, glass or plastic for up to 9 days.

Air freight takes 12 to 24 hours, add another few hours for packaging, handling and last-mile delivery and that leaves 6+ days for the virus to spread to anyone who touches goods handled by an symptomatic carrier. Maybe the odds of catching the virus via surfaces are low, but maybe not. No one knows, including anyone rash enough to claim that the risk is negligible.

end

CHINA//CORONAVIRUS (COVID 19)

We now have reports that the Chinese military and police who were rounding up citizens suspected of having the Covid 19 virus are now infected.  This will devastate the Chinese economy

(zerohedge)

“Angry People Will No Longer Be Afraid” – 1000s Of Chinese Miltary/Police Quarantined, Dozens Diagnosed After CCP Lies

Earlier today we highlighted the aggressive censorship that is underway in China to keep “control of the narrative.” Sadly, the citizens that were charged with trying to keep “control of the people” were potentially treated even worse as The Epoch Times reports, thanks to a lack of information (or perhaps withholding) from Beijing, thousands of soldiers and officers of the People’s Liberation Army, as well as police have been diagnosed with the deadly virus and are currently under quarantine.

It is reported that dozens of military and law enforcement have been diagnosed with the new virus, and thousands are being quarantined.

A staff member at the Central Theater General Hospital (Hankou Hospital) in Wuhan confirmed armed police officers were hospitalized.

Among them, 1,500 Chinese soldiers and 1,000 armed police are being quarantined, and China Human Rights and Democracy Information Center, headquartered in Hong Kong, reported on February 10 that 10 CCP soldiers and 15 armed police have been diagnosed with the new virus in Hubei province.

The Chinese People’s Liberation Army General Hospital (Hainan) Hospital in Sanya is preparing to test 3,000 people for new virus pneumonia samples.

300 armed police were isolated to a training site of the Hubei Provincial Corps of the Armed Police.

An epidemic has emerged in the Chinese Navy. After a serviceman of the Navy Submarine Force in Sanya, Hainan, was diagnosed with Covid-19, 300 sailors were isolated, and training programs on nuclear submarines, scheduled to start this month, have been suspended.

 

The Information Center’s report confirms that many tests in recent days have shown “false negatives”, and the incubation period may be as high as 24 days. Therefore, even if the test results of all personnel before the departure are “negative”, there may still be people carrying the virus, and those carrying the virus are likely to be transmitted to most officers and men

Recently, the Central Military Commission has issued 12 emergency notifications about the epidemic situation, and is enforcing strict regulations on the “leaders of epidemic work”, “the epidemic situation in the camp and family areas”, “isolation observation”, etc.

Alleged violations will result in disciplinary action or dismissal.

Most critically, these diagnosed cases (and quarantines) – and who knows how many dead – are not being reported as Epoch Times reports

…confidential documents stipulate that if the military’s epidemic situation involves military secrets, it may not be reported to the local provincial and municipal governments. Therefore, current illnesses in the military and the armed police are not reported to the territories on the grounds of confidentiality.   

The situation among these personnel, charged with keeping order and maintaining curfews during the early days of the virus, is notably worse than it could have been thanks to Chinese Communist authorities denials and delays early on. As Epoch Times notes:

Wuhan pneumonia started as early as December of last year, but the Chinese Communist authorities have concealed the epidemic from the local to the central government, making the epidemic out of control

 

The Chinese Communist Party did not publicly acknowledge that the virus would be “person-to-person” until January 20, and the city was closed to Wuhan on the 23rd, but at that time the epidemic had spread to dozens of countries and regions across the mainland and overseas. By now the epidemic has been completely out of control.

Recently, Xu Zhangrun, a former professor at Tsinghua University School of Law, stated that under the outbreak of China, the CCP’s organizational disorder caused human disasters to be greater than natural disasters, which may lead to great changes. The article said,

“The anger of the people has erupted like a volcano, and the angry people will no longer be afraid.”

“The CCP ’s defeat has arrived, and the countdown has begun.”

We suspect the military and law enforcement who were “just doing their jobs” are now getting more than a little angry too – who will control the rising social unrest if the police and military turn on the CCP?

END
China//Economics/Coronavirus
Now China is issuing “force majeure” slips claiming that they cannot undertake contracts due to the Covid 19 pandemic
(Bloomberg)

China Starts Giving ‘Force Majeure’ Slips to Virus-Hit Companies

A car-parts supplier became one of the earliest known companies to obtain a “force majeure” certificate in China that may help it avoid penalties for breaching contractual obligations because of the coronavirus outbreak.

The organization, China Council for the Promotion of International Trade, said it issued the certificate on Feb. 2. More companies have since received the document, which is recognized by enterprises, governments, trade associations and customs officials in more than 200 places around the world, CCPIT said.

Read more about Chinese companies declaring force majeure

The certificate can excuse companies from not performing or partially performing contractual duties because of extraordinary circumstances beyond their control. The coronavirus contagion has shuttered plants across China — a disruption that could get much worse if rolling quarantines and suspended rail and air links prevent the return of the millions of blue-collar laborers to workstations.

‘Nightmare’ for Global Tech: Virus Fallout Is Just Beginning

Huida Manufacturing produces components for engines as well as transmission and steering systems, according to its website. Huida representatives didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment.

The company may incur a direct loss of 2.4 million yuan ($344,000) from failing to meet contractual obligations with PSA, and faces a potential compensation claim of 30 million yuan because of a two-week production halt at the carmaker, CCPIT said.

— With assistance by Chunying Zhang, and Gabrielle Coppola

end

China/Covid 19 (Coronavirus)

An inside looks as to why the numbers are inaccurate:  Wuhan hospitals turned away 1000’s even though they probably had the Covid 19 virus

(zerohedge)

“They Said We Didn’t Qualify”: Wuhan Hospitals May Have Turned Away 1000s Of Seriously Sick Coronavirus Patients

The New York Times, the Wall Street Journal and, to a lesser extent (hmmm we wonder why?), the Washington Post are all seemingly racing to write the most critical stories about Beijing’s nightmarish mass quarantine that left 400 million on lockdown as the situation in Wuhan, the epicenter of the outbreak, deteriorated to unimaginably nightmarish levels.

In a sweeping report, WSJ, one of the first mainstream media organization’s to question China’s numbers, chronicles the struggles of several regular people in Wuhan who suffered from a critical flaw: When they went to get tested for the coronavirus, their tests repeatedly came back negative, despite them having obvious symptoms of pneumonia.

This arbitrary classification, undoubtedly adopted by some foolish and shortsighted bureaucrat, caused many to suffer as hospitals refused thousands of patients with serious symptoms. Some may have even died in their homes, unbeknownst to the government and their terrified neighbors.

The piece begins with Zhu Chunxia, a 36-year-old mother with severe pneumonia, who was left waiting on the side of the road after a facility refused to take her because she tested negative, despite her doctor confirming obvious signs of pneumonia.

Coughing badly, Zhu Chunxia sat on a sidewalk in the rain on Monday, awaiting transport to a facility where her apartment complex’s residential committee said she could be treated for the new coronavirus sweeping through this central Chinese city.

The ride never came. Though her doctor was almost certain she was infected with the virus, a throat-swab test she had taken came back negative, which meant the facility wouldn’t take her.

“They said we didn’t qualify,” said the 36-year-old mother of two girls. “They wanted positive results.”

Her case is hardly unique. In fact, researchers at Imperial College in London estimated that only one in every 19 infected people in Wuhan has been tested, meaning that roughly 1 million people – possibly more – might be infected in Wuhan alone.

The terrifying possibility that the already overwhelmed Chinese healthcare system is missing a huge number of patients with probably mostly mild symptoms is especially worrying since the virus appears to have the ability to spread “silently” – i.e. before the infected start displaying symptoms. Many doctors at Chinese hospitals are petitioning the regime to use chest scans to diagnose patients instead of swab tests, which have been found to be extremely unreliable.

Since private healthcare isn’t really a thing in China thanks to their socialist system, once patients are rejected by the government hospital, they have no choice but to return home and try to beat the pneumonia on their own, or at least until they can prove they’re infected.

This has led to financial hardship for some.

Chinese hospitals have focused on treating confirmed patients, often neglecting those who can’t prove they have the virus. People who are misdiagnosed sometimes return home, get more sick and infect others around them. Some return to clinics for additional testing, heightening the risk of being further exposed to the virus.

There is also a financial burden for those who suffer from the virus without testing positive for it.

Wang Hongyan, whose husband tested negative despite a lung infection, said her family paid 10,000 yuan ($1,430) for medical care and were unable to receive the subsidies granted to confirmed coronavirus patients.

“Right now there are a lot of fake negatives,” said Ms. Wang. “You come to the hospital and 90% of the people around us are like this.”

One patient was only seen by a hospital in Wuhan after he fell into a coma and his wife paid for someone to rush him to the hospital.

When 57-year-old Weng Wanjin fell into a coma at home, his wife, Hu Lihua, found someone to rush him to a hospital. Scans showed a serious lung infection but the test didn’t detect the virus. Tests came back negative, even though he definitely had the virus.

“When we got the first result, the doctor said it was impossible,” Ms. Hu said. The doctor recommended they get a second test. Two days later, on Feb. 7, the results confirmed the doctor’s suspicion.

As WSJ explains, the threat swap tests could be false negatives even when they’re done correctly. Sometimes, when an individual’s infection is centered in the lower part of the chest, the swab simply doesn’t extend long enough to pick up infected material.

China has been struggling with dire shortages of medical equipment, including tests for the new virus. More than 100 companies in the country are working on producing more tests – but if the market is flooded with inaccurate tests, what good is that?

Perhaps President Xi and his ruling cohort in Beijing are simply hoping the outbreak will run its course or a vaccine will be developed before the international community calls out its lies?

end

END

CHINA/CORONAVIRUS: 

FROM LONDON’S FINANCIAL TIMES

China seems desperate as it seizes hotels and hospitals and cars trying to fight the COVID 19 virus

(London’s Financial Times)\\special thank you to Robert H for sending this to us

China seizes hotels, hospitals and cars to fight coronavirus

Relatives warn of ‘humanitarian disaster’ as patients with other diseases left untreated

A police officer wears a face mask and goggles at a checkpoint at the Jiujiang Yangtze River Bridge as the country is hit by an outbreak of the novel coronavirus in Jiujiang, Jiangxi province, China, February 4, 2020. Picture taken February 4, 2020. REUTERS/Thomas Peter
A police officer mans a checkpoint at the Jiujiang Yangtze River Bridge in Jiangxi province. Authorities have requisitioned hundreds of hotels to provide accommodation for doctors and for the quarantining of people infected with the virus © Reuters

Chinese authorities have begun emergency requisitioning of private hospitals, hotels, apartments, cars and even face masks as the country’s rising number of coronavirus patients threatens to overwhelm local government facilities.

But the measures, particularly the requisitioning of hospitals, have left some people with other life-threatening diseases without critical care, creating what one relative of a cancer patient affected by the seizures described as a “humanitarian” disaster.

China’s southern industrial hub of Guangzhou this week joined a host of other big city governments such as Zhengzhou, Fuzhou and Xi’an in passing emergency legislation for requisitioning.

In Wuhan, the centre of the outbreak, local authorities have seized offices, student dormitories and other hospitals to create more beds for coronavirus patients.

“Wuhan’s health system has collapsed because of the epidemic. The government has basically ignored other diseases,” said city resident Liu Congfeng, whose mother-in-law was suffering from cancer but had lost her hospital bed to coronavirus patients.

The coronavirus has brought the world’s second-largest economy to a halt after authorities ordered a lockdown of Wuhan and factories and businesses across China began shutting down.

The head of the World Health Organization warned this week that the outbreak posed a “very grave threat for the rest of the world” as the number of confirmed infections in China reached 44,653 late on Tuesday, with 1,113 deaths.

But in a sign the draconian quarantine measures might be working, the number of daily new cases outside Hubei province, of which Wuhan is the capital, fell for the eighth consecutive day on Wednesday.

The government had originally called for workplaces to reopen on Monday, but many businesses, shops and restaurants remained closed.

A top government official said this week that he expected another 160m people to return to work by next Tuesday.

“If we don’t get back to work, we’ll have shortages of medical supplies in the short term, and longer term we’ll run out of other necessary daily goods,” said Cong Liang, a senior official at the National Development and Reform Commission.

China’s cabinet, the State Council, announced on Monday that counties and city governments could requisition hotels as needed to provide medical personnel with accommodation.

“Wuhan needed to requisition hotels for patient quarantine and taxis to transport medical personnel, it’s an emergency measure, the situation is very serious,” said Zhang Yansheng of government affiliated think-tank CCIEE.

Authorities have also tried to requisition medical supplies. Last week in the city of Dali, in Yunnan province, authorities seized thousands of face masks as the goods passed through on the way to other cities. But the head of the local health commission was fired after national news reported on the manoeuvre.

The human cost of the radical requisitioning measures is also rising, relatives say.

Wuhan resident Mr Liu said the city government had ejected his mother-in-law, who was suffering from late-stage stomach cancer, from the Guangfa Group Cancer Hospital on February 5 to make way for coronavirus patients.

“Her condition has worsened dramatically,” said Mr Liu. Other hospitals in the city have also told him they have no room for cancer patients.

“All we want is regular injections of painkillers and intravenous fluids so she can pass away peacefully,” Mr Liu said. “I know a lot of terminally sick people have died after being kicked out of the hospital.”

end

A report from inside the epi centre of the viral attack, Wuhan through the eyes of AFP reporters:

(zerohedge/AFP)

“It’s Like A Horror Film”: Botched Wuhan Quarantine Left Dead Bodies In The Street, Sick Waiting Days For Care

Western media organizations have published a series of in-depth reports attempting to illuminate what life on the ground at the epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak looks like. But few have captured the atmosphere of the situation quite like a team of AFP journalists who lingered in Wuhan after the lockdown, and have detailed their experiences in diary format.

The diary begins on Jan. 23, the day Wuhan was placed under lockdown. It starts as one might expect: Though the news was a shock, few tried to escape the city before the lockdown officially went into effect. Police chase the last travelers out of the railroad station.

But the situation doesn’t really start to escalate until Jan. 25, or New Year’s Day in China.

Those who went to worship at the city’s Guiyan temple, normally packed this time of year, found it empty: nobody was allowed inside.

“No-one is allowed inside in order to prevent the virus spreading,” a uniformed man – who is not wearing the compulsory mask – tells AFP.

On the fourth day of the crackdown, conditions in Wuhan really started to deteriorate. This marked the beginning of hard times for Wuhan. Overwhelmed hospitals arbitrarily turned people away if their swab tests came back negative for the virus. One man told an AFP reporter that he had been turned away by four hospitals, despite being seriously ill. “I haven’t slept,” he said. He was getting ready to wait in line all night to hopefully be admitted to another hospital.

For the first in their memory, the AFP reporters said Chinese out on the streets approached them to complain about the government’s handling of the lockdown.

“Like a horror film,” says one witness, who tells AFP bodies were left unattended for hours.

About 20 kilometers from the center for the city, police had set up roadblocks around the city’s perimeter. Nurses and other reinforcements were let in to help the exhausted medical personnel staffing the city’s hospitals.

By day five, all non-essential traffic had been banned from the city. Taxis have been requisitioned by the state to help transport people to hospitals.

One vast stretch of muddy ground in Wuhan was suddenly busy with cranes and heavy machinery as the state scrambled to build a new 1,000-bed facility. Soon, a second would begin nearby.

“We’ve got to go fast so we can beat the virus,” said one construction worker who had been working for nine hours, and was preparing to go off-shift near the construction site.

Volunteers ferry the sick to and from the hospital.

“We need to take the initiative and help out,” he says as he waits outside a clinic to take a patient home.

Countries have started to plan evacuations of their citizens from Wuhan. More than a dozen would eventually follow through. To boost morale, the government set up a display on the banks of the Yangtze river; four Chinese characters are lit up in pink: “Let’s go Wuhan.”

On day 6, the AFP spoke to a French doctor who had decided to stay in Wuhan, a Dr. Philippe Klein.

“It’s not an act of heroism,” he said. “It’s been well thought out, it’s my job.”

More signs of the government crackdown are beginning to appear: Guards take the temperature of customers at supermarkets and other stores hawking essential goods.

Then on day 8, the reporters saw their first dead body in the street. He’s a man, in his sixties, who is lying on his back in front of a closed furniture store. Officials in hazard suits slowly approach the body, taking every conceivable precaution.

The team of forensic experts who investigated the body are immediately sprayed with disinfectant. “It’s terrible,” one said. “So many have died in recent days.”

That was two weeks ago. Though there are fewer bodies in the streets, and sick suspects aren’t being turned away by hospitals so often, the situation has gotten considerably worse.

Epoch Times reporter Jennifer Zeng, who has been assiduously grabbing videos posted to Chinese social media and sharing them on Twitter, warned on Wednesday that the food shortage in Wuhan is becoming a crisis as the lockdown continues, despite the fact that China is supposedly once again open for business.

曾錚 Jennifer Zeng@jenniferatntd

Super market in running out of supplies, people lining up to buy, some starting to steal, one of the many scenes in during https://twitter.com/hk_epochtimes/status/1227488352347283457 

香港大紀元@HK_EpochTimes

彈盡糧絕! #武漢 買菜排長龍 有人開始偷菜#武漢肺炎 (新冠肺炎)疫情持續擴散,中國各地封城、封路,運輸中斷,疫情嚴重的湖北等地生活物資匱乏,武漢居民買菜排成長龍,有人甚至開始偷農民地裏的菜。
全文:https://buff.ly/31SBWoj#coronavirus #wuhan

View image on Twitter

1

 

This is one of the most details reports describing the opening days of the lockdown, and it seems to comport with everything else we’ve come to understand about the outbreak in Wuhan. These are the consequences of Chinese officials not recognizing the virus’s potential because they waited to share information about the virus and its genetic sequence with the international community, as BBG reports.

 

end

CHINA/CORONAVIRUS/SUZHOU CITY

This is what happens to one company after Beijing ordered many to return.  One employee was found to have the Covid 19 virus and as such all 200 employees are now quarantined

(zerohedge)

This Is What Happened After One Chinese Company Rushed To Reopen After The Corona-Chaos

Earlier today, Rabobank’s Michael Every laid out succinctly the dilemma facing Beijing, when he said that “China appears to have perhaps decided that the economic damage being wrought by a demand collapse and supply-chain shutdown is just too much to bear.” As reported overnight, Xi Jinping stated that China will meet its economic goals AND win the battle vs. the virus, and Beijing is urging firms to increase output even as the capital itself is largely locked down – and other cities are physically locking people into their homes. That’s as even the US admits that the Phase One trade deal will be slow off the market due to the virus impact.

Of course, China is no stranger to Double Think: as Every put it, “a freely-floating, controlled currency; market-determined, state-directed interest rates; and free-trade mercantilism. Yet increase economic activity from here and the virus will spread, both internally and globally. Concentrate on just the virus, and the local and global economic impact will be enormous.”

That, in a nutshell, was how Rabobank saw China’s “dialectic that has no comfortable Fichtean synthesis to the thesis and antithesis” and concluded that “things are going to get nasty for economies and markets – especially with official WHO word that a vaccine is 18-months away.”

Today, two days after China officially returned to work, we got the first confirmation of just how catastrophic Beijing’s order to local enterprises and businesses to rush back reboot the economy could be, when Jennifer Zeng reported that a company in Suzhou reopened, and immediately at least one CoVid2019 case found. As a result, the company’s 200+ employees couldn’t go home and were immediately placed under quarantine. At least the workers managed to “organize” quilts for themselves.

曾錚 Jennifer Zeng@jenniferatntd

Company in reopened. One case found. Over 200 employed couldn’t go home and immediately under quarantine. They managed to organize quilts for themselves.
苏︍州单位提前开工,确诊一例 ,全单位的人上了一天班,家都回不去了,200多人自带被子,全部隔离

Embedded video

This is just the first such case. Expect many more – especially across Hubei and its neighboring provinces – as latent cases of Coronavirus which were never caught and cured spark new infections and mini epidemics, all of which dutifully captured on a smartphone clip for everyone in China to watch and freak out even more.

Which reminds us of another comment from Rabobank, which last week explained why the dilemma facing China is “truly awful”:

The quandary for China between releasing the quarantine straitjacket in days to stop its economy from getting truly sick, and allowing a virus like this to spread further as people start to mingle again is truly awful. There are no good options. For a world with a serious lack of final end-demand, and which has been relying on China, along with increasingly “Chinese” central banks, this is going to be a nasty shock either way that Mr Market is treating like he is Mr Magoo.

And since Beijing has no way out, especially since the epidemic is still raging despite Beijing’s “doctored”, no pun intended, infection and death numbers, expect China to unleash the most draconian censorship crackdown on any reports Covid-2019 has not only not been purged but is making unwelcome appearances across China’s enterprises, which will be quietly put under blanket quarantine even as Beijing pretends that all is well and its economy is once again humming on all cylinders until eventually the epidemic reaches a critical mass and China has no choice but to once again admit the full extent of the social and economic fallout. And just like in the case of SARS, don’t expect such “honesty” to emerge for at least several weeks if not months.

end

Robert to me:

“You probably have this already … based on some rough calculations I suggest that the global economy has already seen a real time contraction of over 2% compared to last year.
Such contraction is not manageable for Chinese banks as over 50% of them are going to need bailout or will see collapse. The shadow banking business is too frightening to ponder.Assuming that we are several weeks away or more from stability in the situation the contraction impact will likely be 2 or 3 times greater as the velocity of contraction takes on life of its’ own. It will not be long before exporters to China are forced to curtail production as inbound supply chains grind to a halt. Fresh food producers in Asia are already being creamed for over $2 billion daily. This supply chain will simply break down as there is no opportunity to escape by diversifying as the hourglass Asia run out and banks are already demanding and forcing credit contractions.
No forecast was made for this by many companies and governments and starting at month end the real panic will start to set in, especially in the EU as German car companies who are at a 23 year low in production face wide scale cutbacks as inventories soar with no where to go. The mercantile model of Germany is in throws of gut wrenching change for the worse and that will sink the EU. I expect the Euro to drop to $.80 vs the USD before it is over assuming they stay together.””https://www.activistpost.com/2020/02/expect-cascading-global-impact-as-coronavirus-causes-massive-manufacturing-disruptions-worldwide.html

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

UK/CORONAVIRUS

Hospital worker among the 8 in England who have been tested positive and is being treated.  The Westerdam is finally being allowed to dock and its destination is Cambodia.

(zerohedge)

UK Hospital Admits Worker Who Tested Positive For Coronavirus Treated “Small Number” Of Patients

Summary:

  • UK hospital confirms worker found to be infected treated ‘small number’ of patients
  • Russia releases two Chinese nationals who recovered from virus
  • China Grand Prix likely to be cancelled
  • Couple onboard ‘Diamond Princess’ tell CNBC situation is “frankly terrifying”.
  • AFP publishes report exposing worsening shortages of food and supplies in Wuhan
  • Cruise ship rejected by four countries allowed to dock in Cambodia

* * *

Stock markets across the globe are back on the front foot Wednesday morning after officials in Hubei reported a lower number of confirmed cases, and a lower number of deaths, in their morning update, inspiring optimism that the “People’s War” – as President Xi put it – against Covid-19 can be won.

 

Interestingly enough, while the market felt satisfied that Chinese health authorities are finally getting a handle on the virus now that Beijing and Shanghai have joined the ranks of cities suffering ‘partial lockdowns’, most of the major newsflow concerning the outbreak shifted to Britain, where a ‘super spreader’ who picked up the virus in Singapore has apparently wreaked havoc on the country’s national health system, having infected at least two medical personnel.

Officials at Worthing Hospital in West Sussex confirmed late Tuesday that a member of their hospital staff was among the eight confirmed cases of Covid-19 in the UK announced earlier this week. The Worthing staff member is different from a locum doctor working in Brighton who is also among the eight confirmed cases.

Yesterday, it was reported that two prisoners at HMP Bullingdon – including one who was recently extradited from Thailand – are being tested for the virus and being held in isolation. They are both reported to be suffering flu-like symptoms.

As of Tuesday evening, a total of 1,358 people have been tested for coronavirus in the UK, of which 1,350 were confirmed negative and eight positive, the Department of Health said. But as the WSJ reminded us last night, virus tests are often inaccurate and can even rule out patients who are obviously suffering from symptoms of viral pneumonia.

The health-care worker at Worthing went on to treat “a small number” of patients over two days before he was pulled into a quarantine.

As Worthing hospital posted signs calling for patients to immediately report any mysterious flu-like symptoms, the seventh Brighton and Hove schools issued warnings to parents about the coronavirus outbreak on the south coast, prompting some to keep their children home. Two families with children at Carden Primary School have been told to isolate in place.

The Guardian also reported some details about the British man and alleged druggie who was expatriated back from Thailand and may have carried the virus with him.

The 31-year-old man’s name is Mark Rumble, was flown back to the UK on Jan. 27. He was arrested in Pattaya, Thailand, last November

In other news, CNBC conducted an interview with a couple stuck aboard the Diamond Princess, two of more than two dozen Americans stuck on board the ship. The couple said the experience of watching people get carted off the ship day to day has been “frankly terrifying”, and they questioned why authorities have been evacuating healthy people in recent days.

“They say [Feb. 19] – if we’re healthy on that date we can go. They say we’re all safest here quarantining in place. If that’s true, then why are they offloading buses of people who they don’t want to get sick? We’ve had 100 new cases since the quarantine started. This is not making sense.”

Will they ever go on another cruise? “It’ll be a while.”

The couple added that they had found a hospital in Fla. that would take them under quarantine conditions, and aren’t sure why they need to stay here on a cruise ship moored in Japan if they haven’t tested positive for the virus.

Since being quarantined eight days ago, 136 passengers and crew aboard the ‘Diamond Princess’ have been found to have contracted the virus, making it the center of the largest outbreak outside mainland China.

In Wuhan, intensifying supply shortages of food, medicine, fuel and other critical supplies are beginning to weigh on the local population, who have been trapped in place for more than two weeks, according to an Epoch Times reporter.

曾錚 Jennifer Zeng@jenniferatntd

Super market in running out of supplies, people lining up to buy, some starting to steal, one of the many scenes in during https://twitter.com/hk_epochtimes/status/1227488352347283457 

香港大紀元@HK_EpochTimes

彈盡糧絕! #武漢 買菜排長龍 有人開始偷菜#武漢肺炎 (新冠肺炎)疫情持續擴散,中國各地封城、封路,運輸中斷,疫情嚴重的湖北等地生活物資匱乏,武漢居民買菜排成長龍,有人甚至開始偷農民地裏的菜。
全文:https://buff.ly/31SBWoj#coronavirus #wuhan

View image on Twitter

A brave team of AFP reporters who have been documenting the effort to combat the virus on the frontlines of the outbreak published a sweeping report on Tuesday exposing how truly isolated Wuhan had become.

Racing fans received some disappointing news last night when it was reported that the Chinese Grand Prix is expected to be postponed because of the outbreak. The Formula-1 race was scheduled to be held in Shanghai on April 19.

In other news, Indonesia has rejected experts suspicions that health officials might be hiding instances of viral infection. In Russia, two Chinese who were found to be infected and quarantined in Siberia last month have recovered, and been released. Both had ‘mild’ forms of the virus. Russia has closed its border with China and North Korea because of the outbreak and suspended

Last night, we reported that the death toll from the virus had climbed above 1,000 as Hubei reported another 94 deaths.

Finally, we leave readers with a sliver of good news: A cruise ship with no coronavirus patients that had been denied by four countries, and was in danger of running out of food and fuel in the next day or two, has been allowed to dock in Cambodia.

END
France

Welcome to the world of France with their huge Muslim population

(Meotti/Gatestone Institute)

France Quietly Reintroducing The Crime Of Blasphemy

Authored by Giulio Meotti via The Gatestone Institute,

France had just come out of the fifth anniversary of the massacre at its satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo than it was plunged into a similar case. On January 18, Mila O., a 16-year-old French girl, made insulting comments about Islam during an Instagram livestream.

“During her livestream, a Muslim boy asked her out in the comments, but she turned him down because she is gay. He responded by accusing her of racism and calling her a ‘dirty lesbian’. In an angry follow-up video, streamed immediately after she was insulted, Mila responded by saying that she ‘hates religion'”.

Mila continued, saying among other things:

“Are you familiar with freedom of expression? I didn’t hesitate to say what I thought. I hate religion. The Koran is a religion of hatred; there is only hatred in it. That’s what I think. I say what I think… Islam is sh*t… I’m not a racist at all. One cannot simply be racist against a religion… I say what I want, I say what I think. Your religion is sh*t. I’d stick a finger up your god’s a**h*le…”

What she said might be considered a bit raw, but does she have the right to say it? After all, Jews are called the descendants of pigs and apes without the speech police having a stroke.

Following her statements, Mila was targeted on social networks, where the video was widely shared; she received numerous death threats, and her name, address and the name of her school were made public. Mila was forced to leave school for her own safety.

Now under police protection, Mila is in such danger that no French school can, for the time being, accommodate her. “I can’t set foot in my high school anymore and I can’t even change schools because the whole of France is out to get me”, she said. For not having understood what is clear to everyone — that Islam is a “religion of peace” — she is threatened with death, rape and having her throat cut.

Are we in France or Pakistan?“, asked French intellectual Jacques Julliard. Welcome to the France of 2020, where magazines run headlines such as: “Mila, 16 years old, threatened with death for criticizing Islam”. Islamism is becoming pervasive among French Muslims. Since France has not fought it, its hold over France can only increase.

“Let’s get to the point: the progressive intelligentsia wants to believe in multicultural living together, even when reality denies it and reveals a society where diversity is translated into social and identity fragmentation”, wrote the Canadian philosopher, Mathieu Bock-Côté. When multiculturalism turns into threats to free speech, multiculturalists dangerously take the side of the Islamists. The case of Mila represents all the cracks in the disintegration of French society. According to the French journalist, Dominique Nora:

“A few weeks after the commemoration of the massacre at Charlie [Hebdo], the ‘Mila affair’ shows the disturbing asymmetry that reigns in France regarding freedom of expression, or more precisely, blasphemy.”

Mila’s story could have ended with the death threats — as the death threats against Salman Rushdie could have ended 31 years ago — if all the state authorities had immediately rushed to support Mila, and if the France as a society had condemned with one voice the barbaric aggression against the schoolgirl. The opposite happened. Avoiding “the stigmatization of Muslims” has become the official excuse used by the politicians to justify abandoning the victims of violent Islamist threats, such as Mila.

Not one, but two investigations were opened, one for the death threats received by Mila and the other against Mila for “provoking religious hatred” (later dismissed). The controversy redoubled when the general delegate of the French Council for Muslim Worship, Abdallah Zekri, said that the girl had “looked for” trouble: “She must bear the consequences of what she said. Who sows the wind reaps the whirlwind”. Islamists are daily testing the resilience of our democratic societies.

Mila’s controversy took on a new dimension when Minister of Justice Nicole Belloubet, after having first condemned the death threats received by Mila, declared: “Insulting religion is obviously an attack on freedom of conscience; it is serious.” Unfortunately for Belloubet but fortunately for France, that is not (yet) a crime. Belloubet later admitted her “mistake“. Nonetheless, the damage was immense. Ségolène Royal, a former minister and presidential candidate, piled on, saying that Mila had lacked “respect“.

“No, you’re not Mila; you, Mrs. Ségolène Royal, have no courage”, tweeted the philosopher Raphaël Enthoven in response. Martine Aubry, the socialist mayor of Lille, asked Mila to “exercise restraint and avoid this kind of talk, even if the threats are unacceptable”. France is rapidly going from laïcité (secularism) to lâcheté (cowardice); from freedom of expression to unconditional surrender. France keeps trying to procrastinate while Islamism thrives on the elites’ rapidly abandoning their Judeo-Christian values.

There were even those, such as the historian of religion, Oden Vallet, claiming that Mila is “responsible” for future terror attacks.

A former cartoonist at Charlie Hebdo, Delfeil de Ton, after the 2015 massacre of his colleagues, shamefully accused Charlie Hebdos late editor Stéphane Charbonnier of “dragging” the staff into the slaughter by satirizing Mohammed.

Mila’s case resembles that of a French philosopher, Robert Redeker, who in 2006 published an opinion extremely critical of Islam in Le Figaro. Following this, Redeker, who was a teacher in a public high school in Toulouse, began receiving death threats by phone, email and through Al Hesbah, a password-protected forum with ties to Al Qaeda. “I can’t work, I can’t come and go and am obliged to hide”, Redeker said from an undisclosed location. “So in some way, the Islamists have succeeded in punishing me on the territory of the republic as if I were guilty of a crime of opinion”. That was the “fatwa in the country of Voltaire“.

Fifteen years later, Mila’s case shows how greatly the Islamists have indeed succeeded.

There are a few brave writers who have defended Mila. In an article for the Journal du Dimanche, the former Charlie Hebdo lawyer Richard Malka wrote about “Mila’s case or the triumph of fear.”

“There is no reaction from ministers and major feminists or LGBT associations, artists and ‘progressives’. Turn your head, whistle, look at your shoes before choosing fashionable indignations that you will embrace with all the more ardor as long as they don’t expose you to any risk”.

Malka also wrote that “no human rights organizations has protested or expressed solidarity with the girl whose life has suddenly been plunged into hiding”. Feminist organizations, so quick to denounce “toxic masculinity” and “patriarchal structures of domination”, were also silent.

Today there are many countries where people are killed because they dare to criticize Islam. In the Islamic Republic of Pakistan, a country that punishes blasphemy with death, judges sentenced to death but later absolved Asia Bibi for that “crime”. Today, in France, the country of the Declaration of the Rights of Man and of the Citizen, which always sanctified freedom of expression and the right to criticize religion and ideologies, some within the justice system — in the name of a misguided, militant anti-racism — are quietly and de facto reintroducing the crime of blasphemy. “The Mila Affair: Are we pretending to create a crime of blasphemy in French law?” asked an appeal published by Le Figaro.

Today, in France, using freedom of expression to criticize Islam is clearly an extremely dangerous act, even if you, like Mila, are a child. Those who disassociate themselves from Mila wear masks of submission.

Franz-Olivier Giesbert, an influential commentator and former editor of Le Figaro, accused Justice Minister Belloubet of appeasing Islamists, and compared her actions to those of the Vichy regime that collaborated with Hitler. “Is France still France?”, Giesbert asked in an editorial for the news magazine Le Point.

“Some days you wonder. In Islamic republics such as Pakistan or Iran [Belloubet’s comments] would be normal. But they are not normal in France, the country of the Enlightenment where there is a right to blasphemy”.

If you count all the French journalists, cartoonists and writers currently under police protection for criticizing Islam, then, yes, France is turning into the new Pakistan. Éric Zemmour, the author of Le Suicide Français, is followed by two police guards wherever he goes; Charlie Hebdo‘s director, “Riss”, and the remaining cartoonists live under police protection as does Philippe Val, the former director of Charlie Hebdo, who decided to publish the Mohammed cartoons in 2006. The journalist Zineb Rhazaoui is surrounded by six policemen. Already in 2002, two noted authors were forced to stand trial in France for their ideas on Islam, Oriana Fallaci and Michel Houellebecq.

Five major French intellectuals — Elisabeth Badinter, Elisabeth de Fontenay, Marcel Gauchet, Jacques Julliard and Jean-Pierre Le Goff — published a pro-Mila appeal in L’Expresscalling out “the cowardice of justice and politics now obsessed with the acrobatics on the subjects of freedom of expression when it comes to Islam. We will pay dearly for this cowardice”.

After the massacre at Charlie Hebdo, Pope Francis said, “Curse my mother, expect a punch”, and blamed the cartoonists for their own murder. Islamists are winning the ideological battle and we are behaving like cowards. Will 16-year-old Mila have to be murdered to unify people enough so that the cowards can say “Je suis Mila” for 24 hours?

end
Europe //Industrial Production
The rebound in Industrial production just did not come..it collapsed and this is before the pandemic coronavirus (Covid 19)
(zerohedge)

What Rebound? Eurozone Industrial Production Collapses In December

On Wednesday morning, all hope for a recovery in Europe was abandoned when industrial production numbers missed estimates in December.

Industrial production fell -2.1% in December on an M/M basis, according to Eurostat, confirming our suspicions that Germany was “suck in a recession,” with limited signs of an economic rebound.

Eurozone industrial production plunged -4.1% in December on a Y/Y basis, now printing at its weakest level since 2012.

The disappointing news came as investors have been buying European equities hand over fist, essentially frontrunning an industrial recovery, that at this point, could be another example where central banks are forcing risk-taking at a time when many should be playing defensive names.

Though sentiment has improved in the region in the last several months because the European Central Bank (ECB) continues its unprecedented money printing to keep the stock market party alive.

However, no matter how much money the ECB throws at stocks and corporate bonds, industrial production remains in a severe slump, now two-years-old, with no rebound in sight.  

Economists have spent the last several weeks revising down their forecasts for Eurozone economic growth in 1Q as the coronavirus shock in China could produce an even more significant downturn in Europe.

“European car manufacturers, in particular, are already warning of potential shortages of components due to factory shutdowns in China,” said Jessica Hinds, an economist at Capital Economics. “So even if the virus is soon brought under control, eurozone industry is likely to remain in recession in at least the early part of this year.”

The longer China’s economy remains offline, the larger the shock will be in Europe and elsewhere.

“The longer it takes for production to resume, the higher the risks,” said Jörg Krämer, chief economist at Commerzbank in Frankfurt.

Automobiles are Germany’s largest export. The industrial slump could produce a negative print for 4Q19 GDP.

The challenges of the imploding automobile industry in Germany have spread across the Continent. Suppliers in other countries were also affected by the industrial slowdown.

“For most countries, Germany is the most important trading partner,” said Carsten Brzeski, chief economist at ING Germany. “If it starts to slow down, other countries will feel it.”

One of the most significant threats to Europe’s economy is part shortages from China. This could effectively cause major production lines in Germany and across the Continent to shut down.

Also, Daimler sold 700,000 Mercedes-Benz cars in China last year, twice as many as it sold in the US. If two-thirds of China’s economy remains frozen, and more than 400 million people are in quarantine, this could severely damage car sales.

Europe’s industrial production downturn continued to accelerate in late 2019, but now, it could crash because of the virus shock seen in China

What could possible go wrong for German stocks?

END

EUROPE

email from Robert H to me;

 

The dire finances in Europe are beyond comprehension. The Euro has been in a free-fall despite the biased media all running headlines that it is Britain who made the wrong decision. They are desperately trying to distract the public and corporations from the fall in the Euro and the capital flight which has been creating the drive into the US treasuries. On top of that, the REPO crisis has expanded as fear over European banks continues to escalate. As I keep repeating watch the capital flows into USD from Europe. 

So while many parties continue to scold the British for their Brexit decision, I offer this point of reference. Brexit saves the Brits about £9 billion roughly € 10-15 billion or 1% of GDP for the EU and the Brussels crowd. If we look at the scale of contraction in Europe it becomes mind boggling as to whether Europe is even a real market going forward. Perhaps saving money is not so bad of a idea. It stands to reason that individual Europeans will seek out markets that can pay over domestic ones that cannot.
The one factor is the China syndrome of the virus in economic terms. The mighty Benz who sold approximately 700,000 vehicles to China has seen its’ produced inventory grow by over 100,000 vehicles destined to China stuck in the supply chain of delivery. This is a massive cash/credit drain on their balance sheet. And for long will this last? This comes at a time when the German car industry is at a 23 year low as of last year, in production. One might start questioning the impact of piled up inventory and the repercussions of further inevitable slow downs in vehicle production. As Germany goes so does Europe and right now it does not appear they will continue to be a reliable stable market for goods as it will not be too long before all manner of credit will freeze up and dry up in Europe. 
A marketplace without credit is not a market, no matter the demand.

Cheers

Robert

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

TURKEY/SYRIA

Amazing now the uSA is backing Turkey as Erdogan vows to attack the Syrians anaywhere and everywhere

(zerohedge)

Erdogan Ready To Hit Assad Forces “Anywhere” As US Vows Full Support To “Our NATO Ally” 

This week has already witnessed significant direct fighting between the Syrian and Turkish armies  after on Monday and Tuesday over a dozen more Turkish troops were killed following a bloody weekend of possibly scores killed on each side and nowboth are vowing to annihilate the other’s forces if under attack. Turkey’s President Erdogan had announced a successful retaliatory strike against “enemy” Syrian soldiers which he claimed left over 100 dead.

The Syrian Army vowed that it would continue to respond against “Turkish occupation forces” attacks, while Erdogan threatened the Syrian government will pay a “very heavy price” amid attacks against Turkish soldiers in Idlib.

 

Syrian Army file image, via SOHR.

“The [Syrian] regime, especially in Idlib, got what they deserved. But this is not enough, we will continue. Because if they keep attacking our troops, they will pay a very heavy price. I will publicly announce these steps tomorrow,” Erdogan announced Tuesday. This also the day a Syrian helicopter was shot down presumably by al-Qaeda linked Hayat Tahrir al-Sham fighters armed with a MANPAD.

And on Wednesday, the Turkish president took his rhetoric to a new level. After confirming that at least 14 Turkish soldiers have been killed in recent clashes in Idlib against the Syrian Army, he said the military is ready to attack Syrian government forces “anywhere” should Turkish troops come under attack, marking an intent to escalate beyond the currently confined Idlib region fighting.

“If there is the smallest injury to our soldiers on the observation posts or other places, I am declaring from here that we will hit the regime forces everywhere from today, regardless of Idlib’s borders or the lines of the Sochi agreement,” Erdogan said, in reference to the 2018 ceasefire negotiations backed by Russia.

“We will do this by any means necessary, by air or ground, without hesitating, without allowing for any stalling,” he added, signaling readiness to shoot down Syrian aircraft.

 

Turkish convoys pouring into Idlib, via Anadolu Agency.

This month Turkey has sent some 5,000 troops and convoys of armored vehicles, including tanks, across the border to bolster 12 observation posts in Idlib as part of the Sochi agreement. The supposed ‘de-escalation’ zone has been anything but, however, as Syria has witnessed terrorists attacks in Aleppo originate from jihadist groups in neighboring Idlib, which Damascus says Erdogan has provided military cover for.

Crucially, in a rare moment after a couple of years of rapidly deteriorating relations with Washington, Ankara has received full US support amid its standoff with the Syrian Army over Idlib. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said on Twitter of the latest Turkish troop deaths: “The ongoing assaults by the Assad regime and Russia must stop. I’ve sent Jim Jeffrey to Ankara to coordinate steps to respond to this destabilizing attack. We stand by our NATO Ally Turkey.”

Ali Özkök@Ozkok_A

WATCH RUSSIA!

US special envoy to Syria James Jeffrey landed yesterday night in Turkey.

He announced the US readiness to give Turkey support against the Syrian regime attacks on Idlib.

Symbolic: James Jeffrey talked in Turkish.

Embedded video

The US Special Envoy to the region James Jeffrey didn’t merely touch down in Turkey declaring support to Erdogan, but he declared support while speaking Turkish — clear symbolism that Washington is ready to go ‘all in’ backing up Turkey as it clashes with pro-Assad forces.

Given the recent past history of allies Syria and Russia almost directly clashing with the US and NATO over the fate of Idlib, and with the potential for new “Assad chemical attack” claims to be unleashed as leverage by the al-Qaeda militants on the ground, the final battle for Idlib could be the spark that renews a major proxy war over Syria once again.

END

6.Global Issues

COVID19/LUXURY GOODS COMPANIES

Luxury goods operators are having trouble because their robust growth came from China.  Now the Covid 19 virus will play havoc to the balance sheet

(zerohedge)

Luxury Hard Landing? Gucci Owner Blames Covid-19 Virus For Deteriorating Outlook

Kering shares on the Euronext Paris jumped several percents on Wednesday following higher-than-expected sales for 4Q19. Traders have since faded the initial pop, due mostly to the company’s warning that the virus outbreak in China could damage sales in 1Q20 for its star brand Gucci, reported Reuters.

Kering said Gucci’s success is partly because of the robust Chinese market, with much of the economy shut down, and consumption collapsed, this could have a significant impact on “consumption trends and tourism flows, and their ability to affect economic growth.”

Kering’s CFO Jean-Marc Duplaix said the company “remained very confident about its growth potential in the medium and long term” despite the world’s second-biggest economy shut down, 400 million people in quarantine, factory hubs on idle, and transportation networks froze.

Kering’s revenues increased by 13.8% to $4.76 billion in 4Q, up 11% Y/Y. Duplaix said despite sales halving in Hong Kong last year because of the riots, the company was overly reliant on mainland China to drive new sales. He said Gucci contributes 83% of its recurring operating income.

However, just like global stock markets, Kering’s Chairman P{inault is optimistic…

“Knowing how dynamic and resilient the Chinese people are, we expect things to return to normal promptly once the emergency is over,”

But, Kering admitted it was “impossible” at this time to assess the impact of the virus on business and how fast it will recover, as it has closed around half of its stores in mainland China and is postponing new openings and reviewing product launches in the country due to the impact of Covid-19.

Earlier this week, Italian jacket maker Moncler warned that sales at its stores in China crashed 80% since the virus broke out.

Under Armour, on Tuesday, forecasted a surprise drop in 2020 revenue because of the expected sales slowdown associated with the virus.

“The company’s initial 2020 outlook currently includes an estimated negative impact of the coronavirus outbreak in China of approximately $50 million to $60 million in sales related to the first quarter of 2020.” 

Pandora A/S informed investors this week that its operating segment in China has ground to a halt.

Gucci, Moncler, Under Armour, and Pandora are some of the first consumer companies to realize a demand shock in China could severely damage sales in 1Q.

As we’ve mentioned before, the coronavirus impact on China is global, and it could be a large enough disruption that tilts the global economy into recession.

end

How bad is the Covid-19 coronavirus outbreak likely to get?

HEALTH 11 February 2020
By Debora MacKenzie

 

The World Health Organization has now named the new coronavirus disease: Covid-19.
If the virus isn’t halted, it could infect 60 per cent of the world’s population and kill one in 100
of those infected – around 50 million people – Gabriel Leung, at the University of Hong Kong,
told The Guardian on 11 February.
But no one knows if it really will, because we don’t know whether the virus can be contained,
how deadly it is and how many people have it.
The number of confirmed cases globally reached 42,000 on Tuesday, but the rise in cases has
been slowing since 6 February. This suggests China’s decision to limit people’s movements in
the most affected province, Hubei, is working and that containment may be effective.
That isn’t certain, however. The decline may also reflect overwhelmed hospitals or testing labs.
Studies continue to estimate that there are far more cases in China than those reported. What’s
more, tests of people repatriated from China hint there are many mild and asymptomatic cases,
who may be able to spread the virus but aren’t necessarily being tested or quarantined.
Even if mild cases are being tested, they may not have been making it into official
figures. Diagnostic guidelines issued last week in China say people without symptoms who test
positive for the virus as part of efforts to trace contacts of known cases should only be counted as
confirmed cases if they start showing symptoms. The WHO said on Tuesday this would change.
As for death rates, these are hard to calculate early in an epidemic, when the outcome of most
cases is still unknown, says Neil Ferguson at Imperial College London.
Read more: African nations step up efforts to prevent spread of coronavirus
Using models based on the rate of rise of deaths, Ferguson and his colleagues have calculated
that some 18 per cent of people confirmed to have the virus in the Chinese city of Wuhan die.
This is similar to earlier estimates.
However, to get tested in Wuhan because of illness, not as part of contact tracing, you must have
pneumonia or worse. This means death rates among confirmed cases in Wuhan are likely to be higher than among groups that include milder illness.
For example, travellers from China are tested if they have flu-like symptoms, so for them
Ferguson’s model gives a lower death rate of 5 per cent.
Meanwhile, hints of how many people in Wuhan may really be infected with the virus come
from tests of the 750 people who have been repatriated from the city to Germany and Japan. Of
these, 10 infections were found. We know details of eight of these cases, of which five were
symptomless. This suggests that 1.3 per cent of people in Wuhan may have the virus, many
unknowingly.
Based on this, Ferguson’s team calculates that, by 31 January, there were at least 24,000 new
cases a day in Wuhan, which calls into question the current fall in case reports, which number
around 3000 a day. This could also mean that total case numbers in China may now be as many
as a million. If this is the case, and if all deaths in Wuhan are being detected, then, says the team,
the overall death rate is only around 1 per cent – which matches Leung’s prediction.
But age matters. In China, 80 per cent of deaths have been in people aged over 60. While China
has a median age of 37.4, the median age in the European Union, for example, is close to 43,
meaning more residents may be vulnerable there.

end

this is deadly! Carnival is closing down all Asia operations until at least the end of April due to the material impact from Covid 19.

(zerohedge)

Carnival Fears Shuttering All Asia Operations Till End April, Cites “Material Impact” From Covid-19

The leading cruise ship operator in Asia, Carnival Corporation & plc, reported Wednesday that if it was forced to suspend all cruise operations from ports in China and across Asia until the end of April due to the Covid-19 outbreak, then it would realize a severe financial impact.

Carnival warned that suspending cruise operations in Asia for a considerable amount of time could have a severe material impact on financials and lead to earnings revisions for the year.

“…if the company had to suspend all of its operations in Asia through the end of April, this would impact its fiscal 2020 financial performance by $0.55 to $0.65 per share, which includes guest compensation.”

The cruise line noted Covid-19 outbreak could impact its global bookings will further affect the company’s financial performance. The company will provide an update on disruption with its 1Q20 earnings release in late March. There could be a deployment of contingency plans to mitigate the impact of disruption if seen in Asia.

So, the big dilemma Carnival and other cruises ship operators have at the moment, is that closing operations in Asia to prevent further transmission of the virus would damage shareholder value. Protecting profits and shareholder value is more important than human safety. This is explained in a tweet below:

0range Crush@0rangeCru5h

The dilemma

Option 1) contain virus, preserve life & Cause serious Sharp Economic Slowdown

Option 2) Let virus spread & globally 50 – 100 Million could die, With Long, Slow, milder Economic impact
(If CFR, currently unknown, is ~1%)

Royal Caribbean, another large cruise ship operator in Asia, has also fretted over closing down lines, indicating that “the effects of the outbreak on the cruise industry could be substantial, considering that cruise companies have in the last few years turned their attention to China to try to attract its estimated 83 million potential cruise customers.”

As for Carnival’s Diamond Princess moored In Japan, 174 confirmed cases of the virus have been detected on the vessel. Carnival had the chance last month to shut down lines in response to the outbreak, but now, they must deal with the consequences.

 

QuickTake by Bloomberg

@QuickTake

Japanese authorities are considering whether to allow passengers to disembark from the cruise ship earlier than planned, as they are ill and stressed.

There are at least 174 cases aboard, the largest infection cluster outside China

Embedded video

The ethical dilemma that plagues cruise ship operators is protecting shareholder value over doing the right thing and shutting down lines to prevent further transmission of a virus that has no cure for 18 months.

end

7. OIL ISSUES

Oil demand collapses due to the coronavirus//OPEC slashes demand figures

(zerohedge)

OPEC Slashes Oil Demand Forecast On Coronavirus Crunch

Perhaps buoyed by speculation that oil demand in China is set to plunge as much as 20% if not more on the coronavirus “demand shock”, on Tuesday OPEC slashed it forecast for global oil demand by almost a quarter million barrels per day as the coronavirus pandemic cripples fuel use in China, leaving the cartel facing a renewed glut despite its recent production cuts.

The cartel reduced projections for demand growth in the first quarter by 440,000 barrels a day, or about a third, in its monthly report, and 230,000 for the full year, one day after oil prices sank to a one-year low on Monday as the infection has idled thousand of businesses and left millions quarantined in the world’s biggest crude importer.

The plunge in oil prices has sparked a push by OPEC’s top exporter, Saudi Arabia, to push for an emergency meeting and consider new output cutbacks, following a recent Vienna meeting that ended without a consensus after Russia – the biggest non-OPEC producer – refused to comply with further cuts as it is able to weather lower prices more easily.

 

Ominously for Riyadh, the latest OPEC report showed that, even though many OPEC members made a strong start with fresh output curbs that took effect last month, the overhang from the virus will leave them with an even greater surplus. The group collectively pumped 28.86 million barrels a day in January, down 509,000 on the month, and if it maintains that rate there will be a surplus of 570,000 barrels a day during the second quarter, when consumption slows down seasonally.

Furthermore, unlike bullish stock traders, OPEC doesn’t see the effects of the disease confined to the start of the year, and has cut its growth estimate for global oil demand in 2020 as a whole by a whopping 230,000 barrels a day to just under 1 million a day. Yet even with the cut, the increase remains slightly higher than last year’s.

Ironically, despite OPEC’s fatalism, oil prices recovered overnight precisely on the opposite, namely speculation the spread of the disease could be nearing its peak. Even so, Brent trading at $55 a barrel is well below the levels most OPEC members need to cover government spending.

It could have been even worse: since OPEC formed an alliance with non-members such as Russia three years ago, the coalition has restrained supplies to offset a surge of production from the U.S. shale industry, and keep prices supported, indirectly supporting the US shale sector. In January, OPEC launched a new round of cutbacks which served to briefly send oil prices higher before a bear market ensued in the days following on the coronavirus epidemic.

Last week an OPEC+ expert committee recommended reducing output by a further 600,000 barrels a day to offset the impact of the coronavirus. Russia, which held out, said it was “studying” the proposal and its energy minister, Alexander Novak, is consulting with oil companies today. Which may explain the latest gloomy OPEC outlook, which may encourage them to give greater consideration to taking additional measures.

“Clearly, the ongoing developments in China require continuous monitoring and assessment to gauge the implications,” the report said.

end

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings WEDNESDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1219 DOWN .0008 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /MIXED

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 107.85 DOWN 0.074 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2485   DOWN   0.0052  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/BREXIT EXTENDED TO OCT 31/2019//

USA/CAN 1.3059 UP .0005 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  WEDNESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL BY 7 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.0912 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 25.23 POINTS OR 0.87% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 239.78 POINTS OR 0.87%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0,47%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 239.78 POINTS OR 0.87%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 25.23 POINTS OR 0.87%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP. 47% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 175.23  POINTS OR 0.74%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1565.60

silver:$17.55-

Early WEDNESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 1.62% !!! UP 2 IN POINTS from TUESDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 2.08 UP 2  IN BASIS POINTS from TUESDAY night.

USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 98.76 UP 4 CENT(S) from  TUESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers WEDNESDAY MORNING

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And now your closing WEDNESDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.30% DOWN 1 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.05%  UP 2   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.31%//UP 4 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:0.91 DOWN 6 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 60 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.38% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.29% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR WEDNESDAY

Closing currency crosses for WEDNESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0992  DOWN     .0026 or 26 basis points

USA/Japan: 110.03 UP .177 OR YEN DOWN 177  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2977 UP .0021 POUND UP 21  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar UP 39 basis points to 1.3252

 

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The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 6.9720    ON SHORE  (UP)..

 

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.9724  (YUAN UP)..

 

TURKISH LIRA:  6.0518 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.05%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 3 IN basis points from TUESDAY at 1.63 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.09 UP 2 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 99.85 UP 14  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for WEDNESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 21.76  0.52%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 117.06 POINTS OR .86%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 45.38 POINTS 0.75%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 47.30 POINTS or 0.48%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 164.38 POINTS OR 0.75%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 51.17 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 55.72 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE RISES:    63.15  THE CROSS LOWER BY 0.23 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE HIGHER BY 23 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.38 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  51.56//

 

 

BRENT :  56.10

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 1.63…up 3 basis pts…

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.08..plus 2 basis points..

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.0874 ( DOWN 65   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:110.08 UP .233 (YEN DOWN 23 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 98.99 UP 27 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.2958 UP 3  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 6.0458

 

 

the Russian rouble 63.23   UP 0.15 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( UP 15 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3255 UP 36 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  6.9720  (ONSHORE)/

 

 

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 6.9751 (OFFSHORE)

 

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.38%

 

The Dow closed UP 275.08 POINTS OR 0.94%

 

NASDAQ closed UP 87.02 POINTS OR 0.90%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  13.85 CLOSED DOWN 1.33

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 1.707%//libor dropping like a stone

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

Another Day, Another Record High For Stocks And Deaths From Covid-19

As one ‘scientist’ noted this morning, “we cannot contain an epidemic with wishful thinking,” but that hasn’t stopped the world’s investors from Buying the F**king Meltup once again

And why wouldn’t global stocks be soaring to record highs? Earnings are killing it… oh wait!?

Source: Bloomberg

Chinese stocks have reaccelerated after a brief pause as CCP forces its citizens back to work (ChiNext is now up 8% since the start of Covid-19)…

Source: Bloomberg

European stocks rallied yet again to a new record high, led by DAX (but since the start of Covid-19, the periphery is ripping higher with Spain and Italy leading)…

Source: Bloomberg

And in the US, only The Dow Transports remain red since the start of Covid-19. Today saw everything rip with The Dow up 300 points…

Source: Bloomberg

Dow Futures soared back to record intraday highs again today…

Dow and S&P bounced perfectly off their 50-day moving-averages…

“It’s easy, you just buy the fucking dip…”

Nasdaq’s surge has been led by the MAGA Stocks, which are now a stunning 17% of the S&P 500’s market value, and Apple & Microsoft alone combine to account for more than 10%…

Source: Bloomberg

And it’s all levered longs as MSFT call-demand has exploded over the last two weeks…

Source: Marketear

While Defensives have dominated performance since the start of the Covid-19 virus, Cyclicals have ripped back higher in the last few days…

Source: Bloomberg

VIX fell once again today, back near its lowest level since Covid-19, as stocks have soared…

Source: Bloomberg

Credit markets continues to refuse to play along entirely with the “all-clear” message from stocks…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields rose on the day (10Y>1.60%), but rmain dramatically lower since the start of the Covid-19 virus…

Source: Bloomberg

30Y Yields rose again today but remain notably lower since the start of Covid-19

Source: Bloomberg

While the yield curve has steepened modestly in the last two days, it remains notably flatter (almost inverted) since the start of the Covid-19 virus…

Source: Bloomberg

For the 8th day in a row, the dollar was aggressively bid during the US session – after overnight weakness – as USD asset flows (see stocks and bonds) from offshore dominates any reality…

Source: Bloomberg

While the dollar is bid (as the rest of the world’s fiat currency migrates to USD assets amid the Covid-19 crisis), it is the rotation for safe-haven gold that is most notable…

Source: Bloomberg

The Euro collapsed to its weakest level against the USD since May 2017…

Source: Bloomberg

Additionally, the Swiss Franc (safe-haven) is soaring, despite SNB’s best efforts, to its strongest against the EUR since June 2016…not exactly the signal we are getting from stocks…

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos all rallied on the day with Ethereum leading the charge…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin extended its gains above $10,000…

Source: Bloomberg

And Ethereum surged back above $250

Source: Bloomberg

Copper and Crude rallied today and PMs fell (with a decent drop in silver), but since the start of Covid-19, gold has held gains as copper and crude have collapsed…

Source: Bloomberg

WTI bounced back above $50 today – despite OPEC cutting demand outlook, record US production, and a huge crude inventory build…

Finally, this could never happen again, right?

Source: Bloomberg

Or this?

Source: Bloomberg

“Not Cheap”… S&P >19x, and Tech > 23x?!!!

Source: Bloomberg

END

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

The USA deficit for the first 4 months of the fiscal year blows out to a high of 389 billion dollars.  The interest expense for this year will probably come in at 590 billion dollars.  We are heading for a deficit certainly north of 1 trillion dollars.  If you include non balance sheet items, the deficit is 1.2 trillion dollars.

(zerohedge)

US Budget Deficit Blows Out To Nine Year High, Up 25% From Year Ago

The gaping US budget deficit hole is getting bigger with each passing month.

Earlier today, the US Treasury announced that in January (the fourth month of fiscal 2020), the US spent $32.6 billion more than it pulled in, resulting in a deficit that was materially worse than the $11.5BN expected, and also the biggest January deficit since 2011, when the US government spent a net of $49.8 billion.

Total December spending of $405 billion, was 8.8% higher than a year earlier, with the biggest outlays for the month as follows: social security ($91BN), medicare ($87BN), national defense ($53BN), Health ($49BN), Income Security ($39BN), Net Interest ($32BN)and so forth. Meanwhile, receipts increased by a slightly higher 9.5%, from $340BN to $372.3BN, thanks to $217BN in individual income taxes, and $121BN in Social insurance and retirement receipts.

This means that the cumulative deficit for the first four months of the year has surged to $389BN, some 25% higher than the $310BN for the comparable period a year ago.

It also means that with a third of fiscal 2020 down, the US deficit was the widest going back all the way to 2011, when the nation was still spending like a drunken sailor under President Obama in response to the financial crisis, and when the final deficit for the full year soared to $1.3 trillion.

And while in 2020 nobody is predicting a full-year hole as big as 2011’s (at least not yet, although with the Coronavirus still spreading it could soon become the catalyst for another major fiscal stimulus), with every passing month we get closer to a number hinting that the US is spending as if it is emerging from a recession and a major economic crisis. That, or it is about to enter one.  One more thing to keep in mind: if it wasn’t for $28BN in customs duties collected mostly from China as a result of the trade war tariffs, the cumulative US budget deficit through December would be even worse than that in 2011.

One final point: with US debt recently surpassing $23 trillion, it is no surprise that interest expense on this debt has also pushed to all time highs, and in the latest quarter it stabilized just shy of the prior record, dipping modestly to $580 billion, roughly double where its average for the two decade period from 1990 to 2010, at which point it soared. One can only imagine what the interest expense will be if the Fed ever allows rates to normalize again.

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

USA/CHINA/UNITED STATES POSTAL SERVICE/CORONAVIRUS

US postal service suspends delivery guarantee to mail to China..a total global disruption

(zerohedge)

USPS Suspends “Delivery Guarantee” On Mail To China As Shipping Industry Faces Global Disruption

 

The United States Postal Service (USPS) announced on Monday that it will be “temporarily suspending the guarantee on priority mail express” destined for China and Hong Kong because of airline and air freight cancellations and other restrictions since the coronavirus outbreak.

“USPS will be temporarily suspending the guarantee on priority mail express international destined for China and Hong Kong, effective Monday, February 10,” a service alert on USPS’ website read.

USPS says it is “experiencing significant difficulties” in sending letters and packages to China, Hong Kong, and Macau, due to the high number of airline and air freight carriers that have suspended flights to the region,according to the AP.

 

The Universal Postal Union (UPU) said the suspension of flights because of the deadly virus “is going to impact the delivery of mail for the foreseeable future.”

“But it is hopefully temporary. The Universal Postal Union is carefully monitoring the operational situation, and is in constant contact with postal operators to ensure any backlog is cleared in the shortest possible time,” UPU said.

A new paper published this week in The Journal of Hospital Infection said coronavirus could live on surfaces such as glass, plastic, or metal for up to nine days, ratcheting up anxieties about shipping and other non-human traffic.

Disruptions in mail transits have already been reported in North Korea, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Vietnam to China, meaning it’s now a global disruption.

 

Wells Fargo dropped a note earlier this week that warned supply chain disruptions among US retailers are becoming a concern.

“That being said, our sources indicate that out-of stocks at retail for replenishment product could start within 60-to-90 days if disruptions continue beyond the next few weeks, with more significant inventory issues in seasonal product possibly by midsummer if disruptions stretch longer,” wrote Edward Kelly, Wall Street Analyst at Wells Fargo.

China’s virus outbreak isn’t just disrupting the global flow of letters and packages, it’s also producing an economic shock that could tilt the world into recession.

END

iv) Swamp commentaries)

The bloodbath of Obama holdovers who were leaking like crazy will commence in that 70 positions will be cut.

(zerohedge)

NSC Chief O’Brien Confirms Staffer Bloodbath After Vindmans Expelled

National Security Adviser told a room full of Atlantic Council attendees on Tuesday that significant cuts were under way at the leak-prone White House National Security Council, confirming a Monday report in the Washington Examiner that up to 70 positions would be cut.

Josh Cremeans “DirtyTruth”@AKA_RealDirty

Robert O’Brien says the NSC will be down between 115 to 120 staffers by the end of this week.

Embedded video

While O’Brien pitched it as a return to “a manageable size,” he didn’t mention what the Examiner reported – namely, that most of the cuts would be Obama-era holdovers such as anti-Trump impeachment witness Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman, 44, and his twin brother Yevgeny, who were fired from the NSC last week and escorted out of the White House by security.

 

O’Brian noted that the Vindmans “weren’t fired,” according to the Epoch Times, rather “Their services were no longer needed.”

“It’s really a privilege to work in the White House. It’s not a right,” he continued. “At the end of the day, the president is entitled to staffers that want to execute his policy, that he has confidence in, and I think every president’s entitled to that.”

We’re not a banana republic where a group of Lt. Colonels get together and decide what the policy is or should be,” he added.

The reorganization was consistent with the “Scowcroft model” used by Brent Scowcroft, who served as national security adviser for Presidents Gerald Ford and George H. W. Bush, according to O’Brien. The model emphasizes that the national security adviser shouldn’t “be an advocate for one policy or another.” Instead, the adviser should “ensure that the president is well served by the cabinet, departments, and agencies in obtaining counsel and formulating his policies.”

The policies are then decided on by the president and the adviser makes sure they’re carried out.

Most of the staff on the council actually work for other departments and agencies and are part of the council for a certain length of time. O’Brien suggested that some might not be serving in the way that top officials think they should. –Epoch Times

When they come to the White House, they serve as the president’s personal staff and it is our view that while they are at the National Security Council, they should not represent the views of their parent agencies or departments,” said O’Brien. “They’re not there as liaison officers, and they certainly shouldn’t represent their own personal views.

“The president has to have confidence in the folks on his National Security Council staff to ensure that they are committed to executing the agenda that he was elected by the American people to deliver,” not a “mini State Department, a mini Pentagon, a mini Department of Homeland Security.”

end

 

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories

 

Despite hawkish comments in the pre-release of Powell’s comments to the House Financial Services Committee, ESHs and stocks soared on Tuesday.  Why should the market fear modestly hawkish Fed comments?  The market has won every game of ‘chicken’ with the Fed since Volcker left in August 1987.  More than any entity, the market knows that money talks; bullstuff walks.

Fed Chair Powell reiterated that the Fed intends to keep interest rates on hold in 2020 and it will soon halt its repo madness as well as ‘not-QE’ QE.

Powell to tell Congress Fed is likely to remain on sidelines in 2020, but warns of coronavirus risk

“As long as incoming information about the economy remains broadly consistent with this outlook, the current stance of monetary policy will likely remain appropriate,” Powell will say in his prepared remarks. “Of course, policy is not on a preset course. If developments emerge that cause a material reassessment of our outlook, we would respond accordingly.”…

    “The current low interest rate environment also means that it would be important for fiscal policy to help support the economy if it weakens,” he will say. “Putting the federal budget on a sustainable path when the economy is strong would help ensure that policymakers have the space to use fiscal policy to assist in stabilizing the economy during a downturn.”

https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/powell-congressional-testimony-interest-rates-2020

Third Consecutive Oversubscribed Term-Repo Indicates Liquidity Shortage Not Easing

Dealers submitted $40.4BN in Treasurys (at a 1.58% stop out) and $13.25BN in MBS (at a 1.60% stop out) for a total of $53.65 of which $30BN was accepted…

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/third-oversubscribed-term-repo-indicates-liquidity-shortage-persisting

@CBS_Herridge: Source familiar with process tells @CBSNews staff assigned by AG Barr, outside Main Justice, to review Ukraine matter.  CBS News told this review is separate John Durham probe into origins FBI 2016 Russia case and being handled by US Attorney Pittsburgh… the review goes beyond the Biden-Ukraine matter, and records ARE already under review. On the timeline, CBS News is told the review has been “quietly” under way for “several weeks.”  DOJ declined to comment

CBS’s Katherine Herridge’s tweet is a bombshell!  Barr is investigating BEYOND the Bidens.  This probably entails Ukraine interference in the 2016 Campaign and the dossier as well as massive money laundering by US officials and citizens and perhaps even the Ukraine government overthrow in Feb 2014.

Bloomberg heard in 2015 audio clip defending ‘stop and frisk,’ throwing minority kids against wall

A separate clip of Bloomberg complaining in a 2013 radio interview that police stop white people “too much” and minorities “too little.”… [DJT campaign manager] Parscale added in reference to the 2015 comments, “All the money in the world can’t undo this.”… “Ninety-five percent of murders- murderers and murder victims fit one M.O. You can just take a description, Xerox it, and pass it out to all the cops,” he said. “They are male, minorities, 16-25. That’s true in New York, that’s true in virtually every city (inaudible). And that’s where the real crime is. You’ve got to get the guns out of the hands of people that are getting killed… Why do we do it? Because that’s where all the crime is. And the way you get the guns out of the kids’ hands is to throw them up against the wall and frisk them…

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/bloomberg-stop-and-frisk

Michael Bloomberg Circa 2015 Justifies Russia’s Invasion of Crimea

“What would America do if we had a continuous country and a lot of people in that country wanted to be Americans. Does California ring a bell? We just went and took it.”… “I’m not suggesting Putin’s doing a good thing or it should be allowed. But we did this. That was 200 years ago, but we did it. And you want a warm water port? Guantanamo Bay ring a bell? We kept that.”…

https://amp.dailycaller.com/2020/02/11/michael-bloomberg-2015-justifies-russia-crimea

@SteveGuest: NBC News’ Savannah Guthrie repeatedly calls out Pete Buttigieg on his dropping support with African Americans   https://youtu.be/wgSQsk6HnOo

@PARISDENNARD: The Democrat Primary is about to get nasty heading into South Carolina. The knives will be out for Bloomberg, Buttigeig & Biden. The issues and records on race, namely black Americans, family values & criminal justice will take center stage. It won’t be pretty for the DNC

Biden abruptly cancels New Hampshire primary party appearance amid sagging support, heads to South Carolina [If Joe does poorly in SC on 2/29, he’s finished!]

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-leaves-new-hampshire-south-carolina

@RoscoeBDavis1: Biden abruptly pulls out of New Hampshire as support sags, moves to SC for next primary, <150 people show up to his rally last night,he’s plummeting in the polls with the black vote in SC, panic is setting in. He’s gone from 52% to 27% with black voters.

Joe made a good decision; he finished 5th in NH.  Liz Warren was also a big loser, finishing 4th.  Some pundits believed that Warren would do well in NH because it borders Massachusetts, Warren’s home.  Biden and Warren will be finished with a poor showing in South Carolina.  Biden voters will be split among Buttigieg, Klobuchar and Bloomberg.  Warren’s voters will go to Bernie, some to Klobuchar.

‘Never Trump’ Republicans [tied to John Kasich] backing Joe Biden in NH primary, emails show

[Never Trumpers are irrelevant; the MSM and Trump haters are their only audiences.]

https://nypost.com/2020/02/10/never-trump-republicans-backing-joe-biden-in-nh-primary-emails-show/

@AnnCoulter: John Kasich is a more effeminate version of Hillary Clinton.   Mar 15, 2016·

@ggreenwald: No Dem candidate in the modern era who won the popular vote in both Iowa and NH [Sanders] failed to go on to become the Democratic Party nominee for president.

@RyanGirdusky: This is the poll statistic that should keep Democrats up at night… according to Monmouth poll, all the potential Democrat candidates are deeply unfavorable in swing counties that went for Trump or Clinton by less than 10 points.  Favorable/unfavorable in swing counties: Trump: 54/46; Sanders: 36/60; Biden: 36/61; Bloomberg: 29/57

@CBS_Herridge: RogerStone Senior DOJ official tells @CBSNews the Department was shocked to see sentencing recommendation Stone case. This is not what was briefed to Dept. [by Mueller leftovers] The Dept. believes recommendation is extreme, excessive, grossly disproportionate to offenses

@seanmdav: It looks like the Mueller prosecutors running the Stone case may have lied to DOJ about the completely insane 9-year prison sentence recommendation they filed yesterday. “The sentencing recommendation was not what had been briefed to the Department.”

Three prosecutors quit Roger Stone case after DOJ sentencing reversal [A 4th resigned later]

Prosecutor Timothy J. Shea withdrew from the case. He followed two others, lawyer Jonathan Kravis and prosecutor Aaron Zelinsky. Kravis left the DOJ entirely, announcing his resignation as an assistant U.S. attorney…   https://thehill.com/regulation/court-battles/482618-three-prosecutors-quit-roger-stone-case

The Justice Department recommended a 3-4 year sentence for Roger Stone.

Ranking GOP Rep on House Judiciary Com Nunes says in coming weeks more information will appear about misdeeds done by Mueller prosecutors.  https://twitter.com/TWlTTERDJ/status/1227398639410188289

Judicial Watch: Rod Rosenstein’s Communications with Eric Holder, John Huber, Other Senior Obama Officials and the Media – “These astonishing emails show that Rod Rosenstein had many Obama/Clinton and media friends supporting him around the time he infamously appointed Robert Mueller,” said Judicial Watch President Ton Fitton.

https://www.judicialwatch.org/press-releases/judicial-watch-rod-rosensteins-communications-with-eric-holder-john-huber-other-senior-obama-officials-and-the-media/

@JonathanTurley: Justice Ginsburg just declared the ERA expired despite that issue being litigated in the courts. It is entirely inappropriate for a justice to be commenting on such matters that may come before her… [Liberal privilege, Prof. Turley]

The MSM and Dems remain silent on the attempted murder of Trump supporters in Florida.

@JackPosobiec: Suspect in Jacksonville van attack confirmed anti-Trump political motive to police, and willingly showed them cell phone video of himself driving at the stand full of Trump volunteers.  “Someone had to take a stand.”

Jussie Smollett indicted on 6 counts for allegedly lying about attack claims

https://www.foxnews.com/entertainment/jussie-smollett-indicted-chicago-empire-special-prosecutor

Well that is all for today

I will see you Thursday night.

 

 

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