MARAH 9/DUAL BLACK SWAN EVENTS: 1) THE CORONAVIRUS AND 2/ RUSSIA REFUSES TO CUT PRODUCTION: GOLD UP $1.50//SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS//WAR IN THE OIL PATCH//GOLD CLOSES UP $1.50//SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS//CORONAVIRUS UPDATE//SWAMP STORIES//

GOLD:$1675.00  UP $ 1.50   (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING

 

Silver:$17.06  DOWN 23 CENTS. (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

 

 

 

Closing access prices:

 

 

COMEX DATA

 

ACCESS MARKETS

 

Gold : 1678.00

SILVER: 17.02

 

the comex data is complete tonight

 

as well as currency/stock markets etc

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING:  8/19

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: MARCH 2020 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,670.800000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 03/06/2020 DELIVERY DATE: 03/10/2020
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 9 1
661 C JP MORGAN 8
737 C ADVANTAGE 8 3
905 C ADM 2 7
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 19 19
MONTH TO DATE: 1,485

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  MAR CONTRACT: 19 NOTICE(S) FOR 1900 OZ (0.05909 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  1485 NOTICES FOR 148,500 OZ  (4.6189TONNES)

 

 

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR MARCH

 

 

119 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 595,000  OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month: 3453 for 17,265,000 oz

 

BITCOIN MORNING QUOTE  7801 down 1296 dollars

 

BITCOIN AFTERNOON QUOTE.:$7833 DOWN 1263

 

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Let us have a look at the data for today

 

 

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IN SILVER THE COMEX OI FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 2012 CONTRACTS FROM 197,320 DOWN TO 195,358 AND FURTHER FROM OUR NEW RECORD OF 744,710, (FEB 25/2020.  THE LOSS IN OI OCCURRED WITH OUR 10 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. WE HAD NO LONG LIQUIDATION JUST SOME BANKER SHORT COVERING PLUS A STRONG EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

 

 

 

 

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD AN ATMOSPHERIC  SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:,

; MARCH:  00 AND MAY: 2107 AND JULY: 0 ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  2107 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 2107 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 2107 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 10.535 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 10 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

7.32     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

2.630     MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOV.

20.970   MILLION OZ  FINAL STANDING IN DEC

5.075     MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JAN

1.480    MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN FEB

20.415  MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING FOR MAR

 

FRIDAY, AGAIN OUR CROOKS USED COPIOUS PAPER IN ORDER TO LIQUIDATE SILVER’S PRICE…AND THEY WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL 10 CENTS).. AND, OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS  WERE PROBABLY UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE  SOME SILVER LONGS. AS WE DID HAVE A NET GAIN OF 95 CONTRACTS OR 0.475 MILLION OZ ON THE TWO EXCHANGES!

 

 

 

<

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF MARCH:

11,275 CONTRACTS (FOR 6 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 11,275 CONTRACTS) OR 56.375 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1879 CONTRACTS OR 9.396 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF MAR: 56.375 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 8.05% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

 

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2020 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          497.58 MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2020 EFP TOTALS SO FAR: 181.61 MILLION OZ

FEB 2020 EFP’S TOTAL :  ……     259.600 MILLION OZ

MARCH EFP’S SO FAR…..          56.375 MILLION OZ

 

 

RESULT: WE HAD AN STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 2012, WITH THE  10 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /FRIDAY… THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 2107 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER

 

TODAY WE GAINED A TINY SIZED :  95 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: (DESPITE THE 10 CENT FALL IN PRICE)//

 

THE TALLY//EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

i.e 2107 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH DECREASE OF 2012 OI COMEX CONTRACTS.AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A  10 CENT LOSS IN PRICE OF SILVER/ AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $17.31 // FRIDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY!! 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 0.9765 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 139% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW  MAR DELIVERY MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 119 NOTICE(S) FOR  595,000 OZ OF SILVER.

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018. AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.70//TODAY’S RECORD OF 244,705 IS SET WITH A PRICE OF: 18.91 (FEB 25/2020)

 

.

 

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 10.025 MILLION OZ/ SEPT 43.030 MILLION OZ//OCT: 7.665 MILLION OZ//   NOV: 2.630 MILLION OZ//DEC:  20.970 MILLION OZ; JAN:  5.075 MILLION OZ.//FEB 1.480 MILLION OZ//MAR: 20.415 MILLION OZ
  2. THE  RECORD PRIOR TO TODAY WAS SET IN FEB 25/2018:  244,710 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $18.90//.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

 

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 

GOLD

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY HUMONGOUS SIZED 23,959 CONTRACTS TO 664,722 AND MOVING FURTHER FROM OUR NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE HUGE LOSS OF COMEX OI OCCURRED DESPITE OUR STRONG GAIN IN PRICE OF $6.25 /// COMEX GOLD TRADING// FRIDAY// WE, MOST LIKELY HAD CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING AND PROBABLY MINOR LONG LIQUIDATION COUPLED WITH THAT STRONG RISE IN PRICE.  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES WE LOST 3867 CONTRACTS  (12.02 TONNES)

 

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

 

 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A HUMONGOUS AND CRIMINALLY SIZED 11,236 CONTRACTS:

CONTRACTS, FEB>  CONTRACTS; MARCH 00 APRIL: 18,470 JUNE. 1612 AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO//TOTAL: 20,082.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 664,722 ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A SMALL DECREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 3867 CONTRACTS: 23,959 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX  AND 20,092 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI LOSS OF 3867 CONTRACTS OR 12.02 TONNES. FRIDAY, WE HAD A STRONG GAIN OF $6.25 IN GOLD TRADING……

AND WITH THAT STRONG GAIN IN  PRICE, WE STILL HAD A SMALL SIZED LOSS IN  TOTAL/TWO EXCHANGES GOLD TONNAGE OF 12.02  TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS/OFFICIAL SECTOR WERE SUPPLYING INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER WITH RECKLESS ABANDON. THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE (GAIN $6.25). AND IT SEEMS THAT THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE  APPRECIABLE  GOLD LONGS FROM THE GOLD ARENA WERE UNSUCCESSFUL AS WE HAD A SMALL LOSS IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES

 WE HAD  A HUMONGOUS INCREASE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS  (20,092) ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG LOSS IN COMEX OI.(23,959 OI):  TOTAL LOSS IN THE TWO EXCHANGES:  3867 CONTRACTS.  WE  NO DOUBT  HAD HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AND NEGLIGIBLE LONG LIQUIDATION…..COUPLED WITH THAT HUGE COMEX OI FALL

 

 

SPREADING OPERATION FOR OUR NEWCOMERS:

WE HAVE NOW COMMENCED IN GOLD THE ILLEGAL SPREADING OPERATION \ FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS:

 

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW STOPPED IN GOLD AS THEY NOW BEGIN TO MORPH INTO SILVER AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW FRONT MONTH WILL BE APRIL.

 

 

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEW, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE SPREADERS AND THE CRIMINAL ELEMENT BEHIND IT:

<

 

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR SILVER..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR GOLD.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEWCOMERS HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

.

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO GOLD AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX SILVER OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MARCH FOR SILVER:

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON  ACTIVE MONTH OF MAR.BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN GOLD WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (APRIL), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF MAR : 79,915 CONTRACTS OR 7,991,500 oz OR 248.57 TONNES (6 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 13,319 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 6 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 248.57 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 248.57/3550 x 100% TONNES =7.00% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL /GOLD HAS EXPLODED THIS MONTH.

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2020 TO DATE   1472.54  TONNES

JANUARY 2220 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE; : 570.19 TONNES

FEB 2020 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE :            653.78 TONNES

MARCH TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE SO FAR   248.57  TONNES

 

 

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

Result: A HUGE SIZED DECREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 23,959 DESPITE GAIN THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK FRIDAY($6.25)) //.HOWEVER WE ALSO HAD A HUMONGOUS SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 120,082 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 20,082 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE  HAD A SMALL SIZED LOSS OF 3867 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

20,082 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND  23,959 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE SMALL LOSS IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 12.02 TONNES). AND THIS INCREASE OF DEMAND OCCURRED WITH THE STRONG GAIN IN PRICE OF $6.25 WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S TRADING/// AT THE COMEX.

 

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<

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest in SILVER FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 2012 CONTRACTS FROM 197,320 DOWN TO 195,358 AND FURTHER FROM OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710 (SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 3/4 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

ALL OF THE LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS DUE TO BANKER SHORT COVERING EXPLAINED ABOVE AND THE ISSUANCE OF HUGE NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS.

(BELOW)

EFP ISSUANCE 2107

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 FOR FEB. 0; FOR MAR  0:  AND MAY: 2127; JULY: 0 CONTRACTS   AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2127 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE OI LOSS AT THE COMEX OF 2012 CONTRACTS TO THE 2107 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A SMALL  GAIN OF 95 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES  0.475MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL  18.765 MILLION OZ FOR MAY  NOW 2.660 MILLION OZ FOR JUNE WITH JULY AT 22.605 MILLION OZ AUGUST AT 10.025 MILLION OZ//  SEPT: 43.030 MILLION OZ///OCT: 7.32 MILLION OZ//NOV 2.63 MILLION OZ//DEC: 20.970 MILLION OZ//JAN: 5.075 MILLION OZ//FEB: 1.480 MILLION OZ//MAR: 20.430 MILLION OZ

 

 

RESULT: A LARGE SIZED DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE 10 CENT FALL IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// FRIDAY. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED 2107 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON. THE ENTIRE LOSS OF COMEX OI WAS DUE TO SPREADER LIQUIDATION AND THAT HUGE ISSUANCE OF EX. FOR PHYSICALS.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

<

(report Harvey)
<

 

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)MONDAY MORNING/ SUNDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 84.27 POINTS OR 2.78%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 968.47 POINTS OR 3.70%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 1185.71 POINTS OR 5.71%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 2.42%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.9426 /Oil UP TO 28.16 dollars per barrel for WTI and 32.43 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 6.9426 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.9459 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED/CORONAVIRUS  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

 

3b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3C  CHINA

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

 

6.Global Issues

 

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

<

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

10. important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

iv) Swamp commentaries)

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

LET US BEGIN:

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A HUMONGOUS SIZED 23,959 CONTRACTS TO 664,722 MOVING FURTHER FROM OUR  RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020).  AND THIS FALL IN OI WAS SET DESPITE A STRONG GAIN OF $6.25 IN GOLD PRICING //FRIDAY’S  COMEX TRADING//). HOWEVER WE ALSO HAD ATMOSPHERIC EFP ISSUANCE,.  THUS WE HAD HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AT THE COMEX AND NEGLIGIBLE LONG LIQUIDATION ……AS OUR TWO EXCHANGES ROSE  IN  TOTAL OPEN INTEREST..WITH THE STRONG GAIN IN PRICE.  BASICALLY LONGS JUST TRANSFERRED OVER TO LONDON COUPLED WITH CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING AND CONSIDERABLE COMEX OI DECREASE.

 

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MARCH..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 20,092 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

< m_-6272386520649541459gmail-m_-7903619382854245007gmail-block-zerohedge-page-title”>

  FEB: 0; MARCH 00 AND APRIL: 18,470,  JUNE : 0 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 20,082 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A  LOSS OF 3867 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 20,082 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE LOST A STRONG SIZED 23,959 COMEX CONTRACTS.  THE BANKERS PROVIDED ALL THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER TO WHICH OUR LONGS DUTIFULLY ACCEPTED AS THEY GOBBLED UP ATMOSPHERIC AMOUNTS OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS COUPLED WITH A HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING.(FOLLOWING THE STRONG COMEX OI DECLINE)

 

 

THE BANKERS WERUNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE DRAMATICALLY //// (IT ROSE BY $6.25). THEY WERE MOST DEFINITELY  UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING ANY LONGS, AS THE TOTAL LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 12.02 TONNES WAS MAINLY DUE TO BANKER SHORT COVERING AND EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. 

 

 

NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ::  3867 CONTRACTS OR 3867 OZ OR  12.02 TONNES. 

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT COMMODITY FUTURES OPEN INTEREST SHOULD APPROXIMATE 3% OF TOTAL PRODUCTION.  IN GOLD THE WORLD PRODUCES AROUND 3500 TONNES PER YEAR BUT ONLY 2200 TONNES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE WEST (THUS EXCLUDING RUSSIA, CHINA ETC..WHO KEEP 100% OF THEIR PRODUCTION)

THUS IN GOLD WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:  664,722 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS X 100 OZ PER CONTRACT = 66.72 MILLION OZ/32,150 OZ PER TONNE =  2,075 TONNES

THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST REPRESENTS 2,075/2200 OR 94.32% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF GOLD.

 

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And now for the wild silver comex results

Total COMEX silver OI FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 2012 CONTRACTS FROM 197,320 DOWN TO 195,358 (AND MOVING FURTHER FROM THE NEW ALL TIME RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON FEB 25.2020(244,710) ECLIPSING OUR PREVIOUS RECORD, AUGUST 25/2018 RECORD (244,196).  THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) . OUR GOOD OI COMEX LOSS TODAY OCCURRED WITH OUR 10 CENT DECREASE IN PRICING/FRIDAY.  THE LOSS IN OI WAS DUE TO A HUGE ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS COUPLED WITH HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING .

 

ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

 

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAR.

MAR ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH.

 

THE FRONT MONTH OF MAR HAS A TOTAL OPEN INTEREST OF 749 CONTRACTS  WITH A LOSS OF 21 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 2 CONTRACTS ISSUED YESTERDAY SO WE LOST 19 CONTRACT OR 95,000 OZ WILL NOT STAND FOR DELIVERY AS THEY MORPHED INTO LONDON BASED FORWARD CONTRACTS AS WELL AS ACCEPTING A FIAT BONUS FOR THEIR EFFORT

 

THE NEXT CONTRACT MONTH OF APRIL SAW A LOSS OF 26 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 582 CONTRACTS. THE BIG CONTRACT OF MAY SAW ITS OI FALL  BY 2923 DOWN TO 138,753

<

 

We, today, had  119 notice(s)  for 595,,000, OZ for the MAR, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 515,269 contracts

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:

715,619 contracts//

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  MARCH/GOLD

MARCH 9

<

 

 

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
nil oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz 201.07 oz

 

Delaware

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

nil

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
19 notice(s)
 1900 OZ
(0.2177 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
78 contracts
(7800 oz)
0.2426 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
1485 notices
148500 OZ
4.6198 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

we had XX dealer entry:

We had XX kilobar entries

 

 

 

total dealer deposits:XX oz

total dealer withdrawals: XXX oz

 

we had XX deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan: XXX  oz

 

ii) Into everybody else XXX

oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

total deposits:  XX  oz

 

 

we had XX gold withdrawals from the customer account:

<

total gold withdrawals;  XX  oz

 

ADJUSTMENTS: XX

 

 

 

The front month of MARCH saw its open interest register 97 contracts for a LOSS of 39 contracts.. Surprisingly we had 70 notices filed on FRIDAY so we gained 31 contracts or an additional 3100 oz will stand on this side of the pond as they refused to morph into London based forwards.  The bankers are seeking rapidly depleting physical supplies of gold.

 

APRIL saw a LOSS of 29,376 contracts DOWN to 417,149 contracts

May saw its ANOTHER gain of 29 contracts to stand at 120.

June saw a GAIN of 325 contracts up to 143,054

 

 

We had 19 notices filed today for 1,900 oz

 

 

 

FOR THE  MAR 2020 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 19 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 19 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the March /2020. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (1485) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  MAR. (97 contracts) minus the number of notices served upon today (19 x 100 oz per contract) equals 156,300 OZ OR 4.8615 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this  active month of MAR

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the MAR/2020 contract month:

No of notices served (1485 x 100 oz)  + (97 OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (70 x 100 oz )which equals 156,300 oz standing OR 4.8615 TONNES in this active delivery month which is  a great amount for gold standing for a MAR. delivery month.

 

 

 

 

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:  BRINKS

3027.500 OZ  REMOVED TO THE PLEDGED ACCOUNT JAN 10.2020/Brinks

176,211.457 oz NOW PLEDGED  JAN 21.2020/HSBC  5.4807 TONNES

<

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES…. WE HAVE ONLY 37.485 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS.

HERE IS WHAT STOOD DURING THESE PAST 7 MONTHS:  AUGUST 27.153 TONNES

SEPT:                                                                      5.4525 TONNES

OCT…………………………………………………………………………..   37.99 TONNES

NOV……                                                                5.3841 tonnes

DEC………………………….                                              45.912 TONNES

JAN……………………                                                    8.448 TONNES

FEB……………………………………………..                             25.611 tonnes

MARCH………………………………………………………..              4.8615 TONNES

 

total: 160.966 tonnes

ACCORDING TO COMEX RULES:

 

IF WE INCLUDE THE PAST 7 MONTHS OF SETTLEMENTS WE HAVE 25,645 TONNES SETTLED

 

 

IF WE ADD THE 8 DELIVERY MONTHS: 160.966  tonnes

 

Thus:

160.886 tonnes of delivery –

25.645 TONNES DEEMED SETTLEMENT

 

=135.221 TONNES STANDING FOR METAL AGAINST 36.6300 TONNES OF REGISTERED OR FOR SALE COMEX GOLD! THIS IS WHY GOLD IS SCARCE AT THE COMEX.

 

total registered or dealer gold:   1,353,869.021 oz or  42.111 tonnes
which  includes the following:
a) pledged gold held at HSBC + BRINKS  which cannot settled upon   176,211.457 oz x ( 5.4807 TONNES)//
b)registered gold that can be used to settle upon:1,177,657.6  (36.6300 tonnes)
true registered gold  (total registered – pledged tonnes  1,177657.6  (36.6300 tonnes)
total registered, pledged  and eligible (customer) gold;   8,663,541.978 oz 269.49 tonnes

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS

 

1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX 

 

2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.

 

3. NO GOLD IS ENTERING THE COMEX

 

WHY ARE THEY NOT SETTLING?

 

THE COMEX IS AN ABSOLUTE FRAUD..

 

 

end

 

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH OF MARCH.

INITIAL  standings/SILVER

IN TOTAL CONTRAST TO GOLD, HUGE ACTIVITY IN SILVER TODAY.
MARCH 9//2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
XXX

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
XXX
No of oz served today (contracts)
119
CONTRACT(S)
(10,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
630 contracts
 3,150,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  3453 contracts

17,265,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

total dealer deposits: XXX oz

total dealer withdrawals: XX oz

i)we had  XX deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:   xx

into everybody else:  xxx

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 160.84 million oz of  total silver inventory or 49.92% of all official comex silver. (161.3 million/323.167 million

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  xxx   oz

 

we had xx withdrawals out of the customer account:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total withdrawals; xxx  oz

We had xx adjustment:

 

 

total dealer silver:  81.922 million

total dealer + customer silver:  323.167 million oz

 

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The total number of notices filed today for the MAR 2020. contract month is represented by 119 contract(s) FOR 595,000 oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in MAR we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 3453 x 5,000 oz = 17,265,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAR. 749) and the number of notices served upon today 119x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the MAR/2019 contract month: 3453 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of MAR (749)- number of notices served upon today (119) x 5000 oz equals 20,415,000 oz of silver standing for the MAR contract month.

WE LOST 19 CONTRACT OR 95,000 OZ WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND

 

 

 

 

 

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN:  THE COMEX IS UNDER ASSAULT FOR BOTH PHYSICAL GOLD AND SILVER WITH SILVER IN THE LEAD BY FAR. DESPITE  MASSIVE RAIDS, LONGS CONTINUE WITH THEIR HUNT AT THE COMEX FOR PHYSICAL METAL.. IT WILL NOT BE LONG BEFORE WE WITNESS A COMMERCIAL FAILURE..STAY TUNED..WE WITNESSED CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING IN SILVER TODAY AND AN ATTEMPTED BANKER SHORT COVERING IN GOLD WITH ZERO SUCCESS.

 

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME: 135,494 CONTRACTS //

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 105,585 CONTRACTS..,,volume extremely high

 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 105,585 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 527 million  OZ  75.38% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

 

end

 

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NPV for Sprott

 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV RISES TO -2.53% ((MARCH 9/2020)

2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -1.91% to NAV MAR 9/2020 )

Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ 2.53%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 15.77 TRADING 15.42///DISCOUNT 2.22

 

END

 

 

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

MARCH 9//WITH GOLD UP $1.50 : NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 955.60 TONNES

March 6/WITH GOLD UP $6.25 A MASSIVE 21.37 PAPER TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 955.60 TONNES

MARCH 5/WITH GOLD UP $25.40//NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 934.23 TONNES

MARCH 4//WITH GOLD DOWN 1 DOLLAR: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.23 TONNES//

MARCH 3//WITH GOLD UP 48.55 TODAY; NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.23 TONNES

MARCH 2//WITH GOLD UP $27.00// no change in gold inventory at the gld//inventory remains  at 934.23 tonness

FEB 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $73.00 WE LOST NO GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS 934.23 TONNES

FEB 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.45: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.86 TONNES FROM THE GLD

FEB 26./WITH GOLD DOWN  TODAY/ GOLD INVENTORY INCREASES BY 6.15 TONNES//GLD INVENTORY AT 640.09 TONNES

FEB 24/with gold up $28.40//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 933.94 TONNES

FEB 21/WITH GOLD UP $28.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A HUGE PAPER DEPOSIT OF:2.34 TONNES   //INVENTORY RESTS AT 933.94 TONNES

FEB 20/WITH GOLD UP $9.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A HUGE 1.76 TONNES OF GOLD DEPOSIT//INVENTORY RESTS AT 931.60 TONNES

FEB 19/WITH GOLD UP $8.25 TODAY//A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 5.85 TONNES//GOLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 929.84 TONES

FEB 18. WITH GOLD UP $17.00//A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.76 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 923.99 TONNES

FEB 14/WITH GOLD UP $6.80 NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 922.23 TONNES

FEB 13/WITH GOLD UP $8.00 TODAY:NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 922.23 TONNES

FEB 12/WITH GOLD UP $1.80 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 6.15 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 922.23 TONNES

FEB 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.30 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 916.08 TONNES

FEB 10/WITH GOLD UP $6.10 TODAY:A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.17 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 916.08 TONNES

FEB 7/WITH GOLD UP $3.20 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS THIS WEEKEND AT; 914.91 TONNES

FEB 6/WITH GOLD UP $8.80: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.33 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.91 TONNES

FEB 4//WITH GOLD DOWN $26.10: A VERY STRANGE PHENOMENA: A MONSTROUS DEPOSIT OF 9.38 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.58 TONNES

FEB 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.40 TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE: A TINY WITHDRAWAL OF .29 TONNES OF GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 903.21 TONNES( TO PAY FOR FEES LIKE STORAGE INSURANCE ETC)

 

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MARCH 9/2020/Inventory rests tonight at 955.60 tonnes

*IN LAST 774 TRADING DAYS: +18.37 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD

*LAST 674 TRADING DAYS: A NET 184.50. TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

MARCH 6//WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.414 MILLION OZ

MARCH 5//WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY; A SMALL WITHDRAWAL DUE TO FEES ETC//INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 361.414 MILLION OZ..

MARCH 4/SILVER SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.880 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 3/WITH SILVER UP 44 CENTS//A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A LOSS OF 5.75 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV../INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.880 MILLION OZ

MARCH 2//WITH SILVER UP 18 CENTS//NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV..INVENTORY RESTS AT 367.632 MILLION OZ//

FEB 28/ WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS: a loss of 1.867 million oz//inventory rests at 367.632 million oz

FEB 27/WITH SILVER DOWN TODAY: A STRONG GAIN OF 747000 OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV

FEB 26\WITH SILVER DOWN TODAY,A HUGE GAIN OF 5.319 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 368.752 MILLION OZ

FEB 24/WITH SILVER UP 35 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.433 TONNES

FEB 21//WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.433 TONNES

FEB 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.433 TONNES

FEB 19/WITH SILVER UP 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.433 MILLION OZ//

FEB 18/. WITH SILVER UP 42 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.433 MILLION OZ.

FEB 14/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 746,000 FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.433 MILLION OZ.

FEB 13/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 364.179 MILLION OZ/

FEB 12//WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 364.179 MILLION OZ/

FEB 11/ WITH SILVER DOWN 19 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.166 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 364.179 MILLION OZ//

FEB 10/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF //INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.013 MILLION OZ//

FEB 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 701,000//INVENTORY RESTS THIS WEEKEND AT 363.013 MILLION OZ//

FEB 6//WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY:A SMALL  CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 154,000 OZ AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 362.312 MILLION OZ// AND GENERALLY THIS IS TO PAY FOR FEES LIKE INSURANCE/STORAGE

FEB 4//WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY//SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 362.466 MILLION OZ//

FEB 3/WITH SILVER DOWN 30 CENTS TODAY; A SMALL DEPOSIT OF 560,000 OZ INTO SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 362.466 MILLION OZ/

J

 

 

MARCH 6//2020:  SLV INVENTORY

361.880 MILLION OZ

 

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 1.08/ and libor 6 month duration 0.88

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: – .20

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 0.96%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 0.84

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = -.12

end

 

 

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

 

 

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

iii) Other physical stories:

https://www.jsmineset.com/2020/03/09/keeping-focus/

Keeping Focus

Posted March 9th, 2020 by J. Johnson & filed under General Editorial.

This article was made available to subscribers before public release.

There is so much commotion going on over the past few months, it has become scary and confusing no matter where one looks for news. The Covid19 has changed everything when it comes to the Just in Time Delivery System and is also taking lives as we witnessed China react like never before. We have done our level best to stick with the idea that the central banking system has no choice but to print in order to stay in control, and will continue to need to do so, as the printers look for other newsworthy excuses to keep it up.

      Our Velocity of M2 Money, which only gets updated every 3 months, should be amended soon. We expect the issues of low money flow to remain as we’ve highlighted over the years and as we exit out of the 1st quarter of 2020. The Baltic Dry Index is starting to climb and hopefully it’s a real believable stat as the issues of containers leaving China, are magically showing up, strong enough to raise the global cargo vessels in almost overnight fashion. Of note, the very next day after Wuhan was lifted out of quarantine, the BDI went higher! That’s some pretty fast and accurate updating in a world completely stopped of almost all shipments from that nation.

     In a way, we’ve been searching thru the data the way the “outsiders” did in the movie “The Big Short” just before the housing market puked. Going thru the stats is where gems of truth can be found which go against the advertised statistics like those in the most recent BDI posts. Most recently, scheduled containers going into China have curtailed the most since 2017. To add to the previous slowdown ..” this year, the traffic slowdown, with both fewer scheduled calls and more cancelled ones, is occurring much earlier. This comes even though many airlines have announced cancelling flight service, reducing air cargo capacity and forcing manufacturers to switch to waterborne transportation even for higher-value and more time-sensitive cargo.”

      Checking out the airlines next “Flybe’s collapse could be the ‘first of many’ airlines” going into “bankruptcies, (which) should be expected in the coming months”. This is highlighting the facts that all international flights (travel and cargo) are being used less and less with the Covid19 being used as an excuse for an already faltering global economy. This historical chart shows the annual growth in global air traffic passenger demand from 2006 to 2020, providing a much bigger issue over with 2018 (factual) and 2019 (estimate) highlighting the fact of a 43+% reduction has already happened before the virus.

      The point here is the only things that got bigger has been the printing and the depth of deception. With all this newly printed money going where it would benefit the few over the many. This has yet to improve the flow of money. If the shipping/travel stats actually did improve, they have to beat what was lost before the virus hit. That requires a much stronger economy, with employees making enough, to not only feed the family and pay the rent and taxes, but to be able to buy manufactured products instead of making due with what one has. The focus is still on a global economy, on life support, that took a gut punch to the body, while in a coma.

Stay Strong!

Jeremiah Johnson

JeremiahJohnson@cableone.net

 

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early MONDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 6.9426/ 

 

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.9459  /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 84.27 POINTS OR 2.78%

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 968.47 POINTS OR 3.70%

 

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 1185.71 POINTS OR 5.71%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL RED/

 

 

 

USA dollar index UP TO 95.12/Euro RISES TO 1.1432

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. –.15/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 107.85/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 28.16 and Brent: 32.43

3f Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE UP/OFF- SHORE: UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil  WELL DOWN for WTI and WELL DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO -.0.71%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 1.07% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.21%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.78: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO : 1.46

3k Gold at $1665.00 silver at: 16.64   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 302/100 in roubles/dollar) 72.67

3m oil into the 28 dollar handle for WTI and 32 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 102.61 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9277 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0565 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to 0.71%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 0.51% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 0.97%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 6.1572.

Dual Coronavirus, Oil Shocks Crash World Markets, 10Y Yield Craters, Futures Pinned Limit Down

Global stocks plunged with the Emini locked limit down for the longest period on record, crude oil tumbled as much as 33% as WTI plunged as low as $27.34, and the yield on the 10Y Treasury crashed to an all time low of 0.31% after Saudi Arabia launched a price war with Russia, sending investors already panicked by the coronavirus fleeing for safe assets.

As noted overnight, the catalyst for today’s historic rout was the plunge in crude, which tumbled as a result of Saudi Arabia launching an all out price war, one which may result in as much as a 4 million barrel production surplus per day, and which at one point tumbled more than 30%, the most since the Gulf War in 1991. After paring some losses, WTI and Brent remained down about 20%.

There were also worries that U.S. oil producers that had issued a lot of debt would be made uneconomic by the price drop.

As Bloomberg notes, the oil-price crash, if sustained, would upend politics and budgets around the world, exacerbate strains in high-yield credit and add pressure on central bankers trying to avert a recession. It typically would have proved a boon to consumers, but the coronavirus is increasingly keeping them at home.

Spooked by the implications for energy stocks, and the imminent crash in the junk bond market, S&P 500 futures fell 5%, triggering trading curbs designed to limit the most dramatic moves while cash markets are closed. Two major exchange-traded funds that track U.S. benchmark gauges posted even bigger declines in pre-market trading. They are not subject to the same curbs.

Predictably, US oil majors and oil services and equipment stocks plunged in pre-market trading, with shares of Chevron crashing 12% and Exxon Mobil dropping 10%. Services and equipment stocks also slumped, with Transocean -20%, Halliburton -16% and Schlumberger -15%. Numerous other companies in the energy sector, including Devon Energy, Occidental Petroleum and Marathon Oil fell at least 20%. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Oil & Gas index fell as much as 15%, the most on record.

And since the limit-down move is likely to resume once stocks reopen, here are the threshold triggers for marketwide halts on the cash S&P500:

  • If the S&P 500 declines 7%, (208 points), trading will pause for 15 min
  • If declines 13%, (386 pts) trading will again pause for 15 mins
  • If falls 20%, (594 pts) the markets would close for the day.

European stocks as measured by the Stoxx Europe 600 Index, fell the most since 2016 entering bear market territory and suffering hefty losses in early trade with London dropping more than 8%, Frankfurt falling more than 7% and Paris almost matching those losses. Several of the region’s gauges look set to enter bear markets and most of Italy’s stocks failed to open after the government ordered a lockdown of large parts of the north of the country, including the financial capital Milan.

Japanese stocks entered a bear market earlier when they tumbled almost 6%: in the Asian session, stocks slumped led by energy and materials, after Monday’s crash in oil prices added to the grim backdrop of the virus outbreak. All markets in the region were down, with equity gauges in Japan, Australia, and Singapore, Thailand and Indonesia each dipping by more than 7%. Shares in Japan, the Philippines, Singapore and Indonesia have plunged more than 20% from their highs as American stock-index futures slumped. The Lehman-like panic after Monday’s crash in oil prices adds to selling triggered by the virus outbreak that has infected almost 110,000 people worldwide and killed more than 3,800.

With traders unable to S&P futures – traditionally the most liquid equity-linked security in the market- they bought bonds instead, and the 10-year Treasury yield fell as low as 0.31%, the lowest ever…

…  taking the whole U.S. yield curve below 1% for the first time in history.

In Europe, the spread between Italy’s 10-year sovereign yield and Germany’s jumped 33 basis points to 211 basis points, the highest since August as traders doubted the credibility of the ECB’s ability to preserve stability “whatever it takes.”

The turmoil hit FX as well, with exchange rates moving sharply as traders struggled to establish where new trading ranges might be. The yen was up about 3% versus the dollar, as the USDJPY briefly dipped below 102 in what appeared to be an overnight flash crash…

… while the euro and Swiss franc both rising more than 1%.

In case anyone missed the big news over the weekend, Saudi Arabia stunned markets with plans to raise its production significantly after the collapse of OPEC’s supply cut agreement with Russia, a grab for market share reminiscent of a drive in 2014 that sent prices down by about two thirds. The shock in oil was seismic, with Brent crude futures sliding $12 to $33.20 a barrel in chaotic trade.

Meanwhile the coronavirus pandemic continued to rage, with the number of people infected with the coronavirus topping 110,000 across the world as the outbreak reached more countries and caused more economic carnage.

Not helping the mood was news North Korea had fired three projectiles off its eastern coast on Monday.

“Wild is an understatement,” said Chris Brankin, Chief Executive at stockbroker TD Ameritrade Singapore. “Not just us, but across the globe you would have every broker/dealer raising their margin requirements … trying to basically protect our clients from trying to leverage too much risk or guess where the bottom is.”

“After a week when the stockpiling of bonds, credit protection and toilet paper became a thing, let’s hope we start to see some more clarity on the reaction,” said Martin Whetton, head of bond & rates strategy at CBA. “Dollar bloc central banks cut policy rates by 125 basis points, not as a way to stop a viral pandemic, but to stem a fear pandemic,” he added, while noting that many central banks had little scope to ease further.

A tectonic shift saw markets fully price in an easing of 75 basis points from the Fed on March 18, while a cut to near zero was now seen as likely by April. The ECB meets on Thursday and will be under intense pressure to act, but rates there are already deeply negative. Indeed, urgent action is clearly needed, with data suggesting the global economy toppled into recession this quarter. Figures out from China over the weekend showed exports fell 17.2% in January-February from a year earlier.

Finally, while commodities cratered, Gold initially cleared $1,700 per ounce to a fresh seven-year peak, only to fall back to $1,676.55 amid talk some investors were having to sell to raise cash to cover margin calls in stocks.

Thor Industries, Casey’s and Stitch Fix are among companies reporting earnings.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 4.9% to 2,819.00
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 6.5% to 342.84
  • MXAP down 4.2% to 149.95
  • MXAPJ down 5% to 488.43
  • Nikkei down 5.1% to 19,698.76
  • Topix down 5.6% to 1,388.97
  • Hang Seng Index down 4.2% to 25,040.46
  • Shanghai Composite down 3% to 2,943.29
  • Sensex down 5.9% to 35,352.82
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 7.3% to 5,760.56
  • Kospi down 4.2% to 1,954.77
  • German 10Y yield fell 12.1 bps to -0.831%
  • Euro up 1.3% to $1.1429
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 0.5 bps to 0.906%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 6.8 bps to 0.282%
  • Brent Futures down 20% to $36.18/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.4% to $1,667.55
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.6% to 95.34

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • The Federal Reserve is under intensifying pressure to tackle the increasing risk of a worldwide credit crunch as falling commodity prices combine with the spreading virus to hammer financial markets
  • Panic reigned in currency markets as orders from traders and algorithmic machines snowballed to spur some of the biggest moves since the global financial crisis
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures dropped more than 4% early on Monday amid mounting worries over the spread of the coronavirus in Europe and after Italy announced drastic measures including a near-complete travel ban for about a quarter of Italians as the number of cases in the country soared
  • Oil markets crashed more than 30% after the disintegration of the OPEC+ alliance triggered an all-out price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia that is likely to have sweeping political and economic consequences
  • The Trump administration is drafting measures to blunt the economic fallout from coronavirus and help slow its spread in the U.S., including a temporary expansion of paid sick leave and possible help for companies facing disruption from the outbreak, according to three people familiar with the matter
  • The coronavirus has spread to about half of the world’s countries, with global fatalities reaching 3,800 and infections in Italy eclipsing those in South Korea. Italy introduced far-reaching measures to contain the outbreak, though it remained unclear how strictly they would be enforced. The U.S. is asking Americans to avoid cruise ships as it prepares to move more than 3,000 passengers and crew off the Grand Princess vessel
  • Gold rallied above $1,700 an ounce as a concerted global rush into havens intensified, with the upswing driven by turmoil in the oil market, the spread of the coronavirus, sinking equities, and expectations of easier monetary policy as recession risks loom ever larger
  • Japan’s economy contracted last quarter more than initially estimated, underscoring its vulnerability even before the coronavirus threatened to push the country into recession.
  • Boris Johnson will announce a 5 billion pound ($6.5 billion) investment in the U.K.’s next generation broadband internet services as he seeks to ensure that remote parts of the country can benefit
  • The euro-area economy may be headed for its first recession in seven years as the coronavirus outbreak takes an increasing toll on businesses and consumer confidence. Economists at Morgan Stanley and Berenberg expect the euro-zone gross domestic product to shrink in the first half of the year. In France, the central bank now sees output barely growing in the first quarter
  • “A temporary decline in activity in some sectors is in fact preferable to a prolonged crisis that would risk expanding to all sectors of the economy,” Italy’s Finance Ministry says in statement Monday on the government’s drastic virus containment measures
  • German January industrial production rose 3% from the previous month, compared with an estimate for a 1.7% increase

Asian equity markets resumed their slump and US equity futures also suffered heavy losses in which the E-mini S&P hit limit down and DJIA futures pointed to another decline of over-1000 points, as oil prices slipped by around 30% after Saudi Arabia kicked off an oil price war. The kingdom announced plans to raise its output to over 10mln bpd beginning next month and it cut the OSP for all destinations by USD 6-8/bbl following last week’s breakdown of the OPEC+ output deal in which Russia rejected the proposal for additional cuts. ASX 200 (-7.3%) posted its largest intraday loss in more than 11 years amid a collapse across the energy sector although gold miners bucked the trend due to the flight to safety, while Nikkei 225 (-5.1%) gapped below 20K and continued to tumble against the backdrop of the detrimental currency flows and following the miss on Q4 GDP which further pointed to the likelihood of a looming recession. Hang Seng (-4.2%) and Shanghai Comp. (-3.0%) conformed to the sell off as blue-chip energy names were pummelled and after continued PBoC liquidity inaction, while the latest trade data from China over the weekend showed a surprise Trade Deficit and a larger than expected contraction in Exports. Finally, 10yr JGBs were higher amid the bloodbath in stocks and as it tracked the advances in T-notes which surged nearly 2 points as US 10yr and 30yr yields delved into unprecedented levels, while the BoJ were also present in the market today for nearly JPY 1tln of JGBs.

Top Asian News

  • Japan GDP Shrinks More Than Estimated, Fueling Recession Concern
  • Debt-Default Showdown Looms as Lebanon Freezes Bond Payment
  • Global Rout Threatens to End China’s Leverage-Loving Stock Binge
  • Saudi Prince Tests Grip on Power With Desert Raid, Oil Price War

European opened substantially into negative territory this morning (Stoxx 50 -6.6%) as sentiment remains subdued on the coronavirus, but with the added development of a crude-war between Saudi Arabia and Russia after the OPEC+ bust-up on Friday (Full details available in the commodity section below). It’s worth noting that sentiment has begun to recuperate somewhat, with US equity futures trading briefly above the limit down positions that were hit overnight (Limit Down Details). Given the commitments from Saudi to increase production to over 10.0mln BPD as of next month and they have cut the official selling price for all destinations by around USD 7/bbl, crude prices are as such lower by over USD 10/bbl and the energy sector has similarly recoiled (Stoxx Oil & Gas -13%). The Oil & Gas Sector accounts for 5.5% of the Stoxx 500 itself, and the largest weightings withing the sector are Total at 29.4%, BP with 15.5% and Shell contributing 14.5%; in terms of price performance, they are currently down by 13.3%, 15.7% and 16.7% respectively. Additionally, the overall downside is exacerbated by the FTQ seen overnight which has sent the global yield complex to record lows for most core parties. For instance, the entirety of the US yield curve is below 1% for the first time and the German 10yr low thus far resides at -0.86%. The Stoxx banking sector is the sector with the 3rd largest weighting in the Stoxx 600 representing 9.4% and is currently 7.3% down on the day. Elsewhere, sectors are all firmly in the red as is every open component in the Stoxx 600 itself; note, a number of Co’s failed, at least initially, to open. Looking ahead, focus turns to how markets react to the US’ entrance, particularly whether this exacerbates the sell-off; as well as for any indicative signs from any particular Co’s in the Energy/Banking sector regarding profit warnings, guidance changes or other telling comments

Top European News

  • Italy Bond Yields Soar as Virus Lockdown Hits Financial Capital
  • Germany Boosts Investment to Protect Economy From Virus Hit
  • Putin Dumps MBS to Start a War on America’s Shale Oil Industry
  • France Economy Hit by Virus as Central Bank Slashes Outlook

In FX, risk sentiment has been roiled by Saudi Arabia’s decision to increase output and slash the cost of crude in response to the breakdown of OPEC+ talks last week when Russia refused to back a deeper cut in production, as prices tumble and compound fears over the economic fallout from China’s nCoV. Eur/Nok has hit highs just shy of 11.0000 and Eur/Sek topped 10.7500, while Usd/Rub peered over 75.0000 before WTI and Brent nursed some losses from just above Usd27 and Usd31 per barrel respectively. Meanwhile, Usd/Cad catapulted to 1.3750+ at one stage overnight and the Antipodean Dollars saw flash crashes that dragged Aud/Usd and Nzd/Usd down to circa 0.6320 and 0.6030, but the Loonie, Aussie and Kiwi have all clawed back some lost ground as their US peer succumbs to pressure from sliding Treasury yields and more pronounced bull-flattening along the curve, not to mention heavy depreciation vs safer havens.

  • JPY/EUR/CHF/GBP – In stark contrast to all the above, Usd/Jpy has been trading largely in lock-step with oil with added impetus from risk-off flows/positioning between wide 104.58-101.58 parameters and the Yen retains a strong underlying bid unlike GOLD that has faded from a few bucks over Usd1700/oz at best on profit taking and long liquidation. Elsewhere, Eur/Usd hit resistance just ahead of 1.1500 and Usd/Chf based a few pips under 0.9200 as Eur/Chf bottomed around 1.0510 in advance of Swiss jobs data and sight deposits showing another rise in bank balances. Similarly, Cable waned after touching 1.3200 with Sterling still subject to hard Brexit jitters alongside the coronavirus and crude capitulation that pose growth and financial stability threats. However, the DXY remains vulnerable itself within a 95.694-94.719 range and not far from a key technical level at worst (94.080 representing a 50% retracement from ytd peak).
  • EM – Severe underperformance in extreme or bordering on unprecedented levels of aversion, especially through the cross-over from Asia-Pacific to European time zones has ravaged regional currencies, though the Lira has rebounded more than most on the vastly cheaper oil price as a net importer and the Yuan is holding firmly above 7.0000 after another decline in the Usd/Cny fix.

In commodities, a frantic session for commodities to say the least after sources over the weekend noted that Saudi Arabia will be boosting its output to above 10mln BPD from this month’s 9.7mln BPD as a response to the collapse of its OPEC+ alliance with Russia. Saudi is also said to have told market participants that it could raise output to as much as 12mln BPD, although sources stated that the initial increase is likely to total between 10-11mln BPD in April, with the final figure contingent on refiners’ response to price cuts. Furthermore, the Kingdom slashed its official pricing for crude, with oil giant Aramco cutting its Asia prices for Arab Light crude and Medium crude by USD 6/bbl each, to discounts of USD 3.10/bbl and USD 4.05/bbl below the Middle East benchmark respectively. In a challenge to Russia, the company made the largest cut to northwest Europe of some USD 8/bbl in most grades – Russia sells a bulk of its Urals crude in the same region. Arab Light sales to Europe will be at a USD 10.25/bbl discount to Brent – levels not seen since at least May 2002. As a result of the anticipated rising production and slash in OSPs – expected to flood the market with barrels – WTI and Brent futures sank 27% and 30% respectively, with the former paused for a few minutes following its aggressive >7% move. WTI Apr’20 briefly slipped below USD 28/bbl vs. Friday’s USD 41.50/bbl close, while Brent May 20 dipping south of USD 32/bbl vs. Friday’s USD 45.50/close – with the spread also narrowing to ~USD 3.80/bbl vs. ~4/bbl on Friday. The Kingdom hopes the slump in oil prices and the expected diminishing in Russia’s market shares will prompt Moscow back to the negotiating table and force its hand to cut output. Desks note that although this may prove effective in the short-term, it is in less certain what the longer-term impact will be. The front-month energy contracts have, as European players entered the markets, pared some losses with WTI Apr’20 now back to ~USD 32.50/bbl, with the 29th Jan 2016 low at USD 26.19/bbl, whilst the Brent May contract reclaimed a USD 36/bbl status. Away from the OPEC debacle, IEA cut 2020 world oil demand forecasts by almost 1mln BPD, due to the coronavirus; envisage the first contraction since 2009, noting that Demand could drop by 730k BPD, in an extreme event where Gov’t fails to contain the virus. Price action to the report was muted given the omission of a scenario that incorporates the weekend Saudi/Russian news. Elsewhere, spot gold failed to hold onto impetus from the global stock rout after prices briefly surpassed USD 1700/oz to the upside to prices last seen in December 2012. The yellow metal then waned off highs and into negative territory – potentially on profit-taking and as investors pump money into government debts in search of safe-haven assets. Meanwhile, copper conformed to the overall risk tone and gapped lower at the open, losing the USD 2.5/lb handle to a current low of USD 2.4675/lb.

US Event Calendar

  • Nothing major scheduled

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

When you’ve worked through the Asian crisis, the Russian/LTCM crisis, the 2000 equity bubble collapsing, the GFC, the European sovereign crisis, and several other smaller wobbles it takes a lot to stun you in financial markets. However the weekend news-flow and overnight price action in oil – just at a time a beaten up market could have done without it – has done that and deserves its own place in the history books.

Following the 10% plunge in oil prices on Friday, WTI and Brent are down a further -30.01% and -27.55% this morning respectively to $28.80/bbl and $32.73/bbl and more or less at their lows since Asia opened. For context this is the largest absolute one-day decline for Brent crude ever while in % terms the decline is the highest since January 17, 1991 when it dropped by -34.8% during the gulf war. This follows the developments over the weekend, specifically that Saudi Arabia plans to raise oil production next month through targeting market share rather than supply management, therefore leading to the threat of an all-out price war following a breakdown in OPEC talks. This led to huge declines in Middle Eastern markets yesterday with bourses in Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait down between 5% and 10%. The main Kuwait index actually suspended trading in the biggest shares after falling 10% while Saudi Aramco fell below its IPO price for the first time. DB’s Michael Hsueh published a note yesterday suggesting that oil should migrate below $20 now. See here for his full analysis. Our economists have often attributed the collapse in inflation expectations in 2015-16 to the collapse in oil prices. They haven’t really recovered from this and are likely to take a further dent now. With central banks running out of road the good news is that this should put us closer to more fiscal spending and likely helicopter money. That might not be the first reaction today though.

The plunge in oil has led to complete capitulation in other markets this morning. In rates, 10y and 30y Treasuries have traded below 0.50% and 1.00% respectively (currently 0.513% and 0.968% as we go to print – moves of -24.6bps and -31.9bps since Friday) meaning the entire yield curve has is below 1% for the first time in history. In equity markets losses are being led by the Nikkei (-5.82%) with further big legs lower for the Hang Seng (-3.50%), Shanghai Comp (-2.14%) and Kospi (-4.14%). It’s worth noting that Australia’s ASX index – typically a perceived defensive market in Asia Pacific – is even down -7.33%. S&P 500 futures are down -5% and have hit circuit breakers. Meanwhile 10y JGBs traded down -0.20% although have since nudged slightly higher, Gold is flat, other base metals are down heavily (iron ore down over 4%), while the Yen (+2.73%) and Swiss Franc (+1.48%) have rallied at the expense of oil sensitive currencies.

One area that will be under severe scrutiny given the oil move is credit. Energy makes up 14% of overall US HY whereas for context in the S&P 500 the energy sector is more like 3% of the overall index. The timing of this is very bad as fears were building in credit already on Friday. As a proxy and showing the demand for hedges, EU Crossover had one of its worst days since the GFC – widening c.60bps. I always think that if a management consultant firm was asked to look at the credit market and report back on its functioning I think they would say that it’s disingenuous to call it a market. The reality is that if you want to buy large amounts at new issue you can do so. However if you wanted to sell it back weeks, months or years later you would only be able to generally do it in much smaller sizes. Dealers only have small appetite to absorb risk even in good times. This massive imbalance doesn’t matter when you have a decent economy and constant inflows as you’ve had for most of the last decade. However once investors have doubts about the economy and/or see outflows then selling can overwhelm the market. The danger of the current situation is you’re starting to risk seeing the early stages of such a move. If this crisis is prolonged it’s likely that credit will see big liquidity air pockets that will spook other asset classes and risk becoming a viscous circle. Its possible central banks will intervene but probably only after bigger problems first. This is part of the reason we extended our spread widening view last Thursday (see link here ) although we now have a tighter spread target for YE than we did at the start of the year. Staying with credit Craig and Nick on Friday put out a note looking at US profit warnings seen so far and also those companies they see at being at risk of downgrades, including those at risk of being junked. See their report here.

Overnight, the Australian newspaper reported that the Australian government will announce a fiscal stimulus package of AUD 10bn while the SKY news was reporting that the plan would likely include cash handouts. So more and more countries are pivoting towards the idea of helicopter money. The US is also drafting measures to blunt the economic fallout from coronavirus and help slow its spread in the US, including a temporary expansion of paid sick leave and possible help for companies facing disruption from the outbreak (per Bloomberg) as New York became 2nd state to declare a state of emergency after cases in the state reached 106. Further, the G20 also made a similar statement to that of G7 over the weekend saying they would use “fiscal and monetary measures, as appropriate, to aid in the response to the virus, support the economy during this phase and maintain the resilience of the financial system.”

Meanwhile, the latest on the virus is that Italy is now close to becoming the worst affected country after China with 7,375 confirmed cases and 366 deaths. Italian PM Giuseppe Conte announced quarantine measures affecting 16mn people yesterday as anyone living in Lombardy and 14 other central and northern provinces will need special permission to travel with Milan and Venice both affected. Schools, gyms, museums, nightclubs and other venues will remain close across the whole country and the moves are likely to remain in place till April 3rd. In other news, Bloomberg is reporting that the Trump administration has told their Chinese counterparts that the purchasing boost, signed in January as part of the Phase 1 trade deal, with specific target dates and commodities, could start off slowly due to the virus hit. However, the US has indicated that this is only an option as long as there isn’t a jump in Chinese exports when virus-related industrial shutdowns end. Elsewhere, the Institute of International Finance highlighted in a report the EM capital outflows hit $30bn in 45days due to the coronavirus outbreak. The amount exceeds the outflows observed during the 2015 China devaluation scare and the 2007-2008 global financial crisis.

It’ll feel like an age ago now, but last week markets saw one of the most volatile weeks in nearly a decade, with the intraday and closing moves on the S&P 500 at sizes unseen since the US debt downgrade in 2011. Prior to this morning the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was half of what it was 2 weeks prior on 22-Feb having fallen over -70bps to end the week at 0.762% (-15bps Friday, -39bps last week), and saw an all-time intraday low of 0.66% Friday morning almost exactly 11 years after the GFC lows of 666 on the S&P 500. The S&P 500 posted its 10th decline in 12 sessions on Friday (-1.71% but off the -4.05% lows for the session), but actually ended the week slightly higher +0.61%, after two days of over 4% rallies midweek. Since its record high on Feb. 19, the index is down over 12% and has lost $3.43 trillion of market capitalization. The main lagging sectors on the week were banks and energy stocks again as rates and oil both sunk. 30y US treasuries fell to an all-time low of 1.287% – down -38.8bps on the week (-25.3bps Friday). While oil fell to nearly 3 year lows as virus related growth scares and the inability for OPEC+ to get Russia to agree to production cuts – Brent was down -9.44% on Friday (-10.39% on the week) – that is the commodity’s largest one day loss since March 8th 2000, almost 20 years to the day.

It was a similar story in Europe as the STOXX 600 fell -2.36% on the week (-3.67% on Friday) underperforming the US partly as it was closed when risk markets had a late NY rally on Friday. As the virus outbreak spreads through Italy, the government has now indicated they are going to implement €7.5 billion of fiscal stimulus, as the FTSE MIB was down -1.79% on the week (-3.62% Friday). 10yr bund yields are back flirting with late summer 2019 all-time lows and now at -0.71%, falling -2.4bps on Friday and -10.3 bps over the week, while spreads in France, Italy, and Spain were all 3.5-7.5bps wider over the course of the week. Credit spreads were wider as well on both HY and IG – US HY was 58bps wider on the week (59bps Friday), while IG was 19bps wider on the week (14bps Friday). In Europe, HY was 36bps wider on the week (36bps Friday), while IG was 12bps wider on the week (9bps Friday). The VIX has now closed over 30 for a full week for the first time since October 2011. Lastly, gold finished the week at its highest levels since Feb 2013 as the prospects of central bank easing and an economic slowdown increase, the haven was up over +5.5% on the week.

As for this week, the focal point will be the ECB meeting on Thursday. Following the Fed’s emergency rate cut this week our economists believe that this has made it easier for the ECB to disappoint market expectations and inadvertently tighten financial conditions; and Christine Lagarde’s hope to shift more of the burden of policy stimulus to fiscal policy will be tested. Our team’s expectation for policy is twofold. The first element is unconditional. Our colleagues expect the ECB to announce a targeted and temporary liquidity facility to support SME lending in affected regions. This ‘quantity of financing’ policy can be complemented by ensuring sufficient eligible collateral and flexibility within NPL rules. The second element is conditional; a 10bp deposit rate cut in April, signalled in March. This cut is conditioned on the virus spreading further and the tightening of financial conditions spreading sufficiently beyond equities into bank funding costs, sovereign funding costs and/or EUR exchange rate appreciation.

In the UK there will be some focus on the government’s 2020 budget, due to be unveiled by Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak on Wednesday. In the US further democratic primaries are scheduled, with the bulk coming on Tuesday with 6 states reporting including Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, North Dakota and Washington. In terms of data it’s going to still be pretty backward looking so rather than go through if we’ll leave you to read the day-by-day calendar below.

END

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)MONDAY MORNING/ SUNDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 84.27 POINTS OR 2.78%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 968.47 POINTS OR 3.70%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 1185.71 POINTS OR 5.71%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 2.42%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.9426 /Oil UP TO 28.16 dollars per barrel for WTI and 32.43 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 6.9426 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.9459 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED/CORONAVIRUS  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 C CHINA

CHINA/CORONAVIRUS

Chinese hotel used to house coronavirus patients, collapses

(zerohedge)

Chinese Hotel Used As Coronavirus Quarantine Site Collapses; Dozens Trapped

A five-story hotel that was reportedly being used as a temporary Covid-19 quarantine site has collapsed in the southeastern Chinese province of Fujian on Saturday, state media reports.

Emergency crews are frantically working to pull victims, who are apparently either all suspected or confirmed coronavirus cases, from the rubble. “23 people have been rescued as of 9pm local time. A total of 70 people were reportedly trapped under the collapsed building in Quanzhou, Fujian,” China’s People’s Daily reports.

Early video from hotel collapse aftermath shows a large area in which the building is reduced to ruble, with dozens of first responders combing through it.

People’s Daily, China

@PDChina

: A hotel building collapsed in Quanzhou, SE China’s Fujian at around 7 pm Saturday, trapping an unknown number of people under it. So far 16 people have been rescued. Rescue work remains underway.

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Local media said a total of 70 people were trapped under the rubble, with rescue efforts still underway.

A shocking overhead photograph of the destroyed building shows the building seemed to collapse in on itself and no part of its remains standing

 

Overhead photograph from Quanzhou disaster site posted to social media.

The South China Morning Posthas identified it as the Xinjia Hotel in Quanzhou.

Reports SCMP, the hotel “collapsed just after 7pm, according to Mnw.cn, an online news site operated by the official Fujian Daily.”

Ezra Cheung

@ezracheungtoto

Pictures posted by netizens on Chinese social media platform Weixin has revealed that the Xinjia Hotel, which is believed to be a quarantine site, has completely toppled down. As of 7.30 pm, 16 people have been rescued, according to Chinese media.

View image on TwitterView image on TwitterView image on Twitter

Local Chinese reports as well as international media are saying it was being used as a Covid-19 quarantine site.

: A five-storey hotel in Quanzhou in the Fujian province suddenly collapses on March 7 evening. Several Chinese media outlets say that the hotel is currently being used as a quarantine site for . About a dozen have been rescued. Internet video.

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Casualties are expected to mount in the wake of the tragedy, however, dozens are still trapped under the rubble, with rescue efforts to continue through the night.

 

Image source: SCMP

Subsequent reports from the scene say at least 28 people have been rescued as of three hours after the hotel’s collapse.

end

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

ITALY

Lombardy and Veneto Provinces are in total lockdown..nobody can get in and nobody can get out

Milan  and Venice are the strength of the Italian economy.

zerohedge/Jason Horowitz

The restrictions affect Milan and the regions that serve as Italy’s economic engine, and are the most sweeping measures outside China.

 

 

The restrictions affect Milan and the regions that serve as Italy’s economic engine, and are the most sweeping measures outside China.

ROME — Italy’s government early Sunday took the extraordinary step of locking down much of the country’s north, restricting movement for about a quarter of the Italian population in regions that serve as the country’s economic engine.

The move represents the most sweeping effort outside China to stop the spread of the coronavirus, and is tantamount to sacrificing the Italian economy in the short term to save it from the ravages of the virus in the long term.

By taking such tough measures, Italy, which is suffering the worst outbreak in Europe, sent a signal that restrictive clampdowns at odds with some of the core values of Western democracies may be necessary to contain and defeat the virus

 

Italy/coronavirus/Iran.update

Leader of the italy’s democratic party tests positive for coronavirus. In Iran, a lawmaker dies

Leader Of Italy’s Democratic Party Tests Positive For Covid-19, Iranian Lawmaker Dies: Live Updates

Democratic Party leader Nicola Zingarelli, one of the most powerful politicians in Italy, has tested positive for the coronavirus, Italian media reported on Saturday.

Zingarelli

Since the beginning of the outbreak, Italy has been the epicenter of the outbreak in Europe; on Friday, the total number of confirmed cases in the country climbed above 4,500, with 197 deaths confirmed.

“I have coronavirus too,” Zingaretti said in a video posted on Facebook, adding he was in self-isolation at home and that all the people he had been in contact with in the latest days were being contacted for checks. He said he was well.

As the outbreak has spread to nearly every country in North America, Asia and Europe. On Friday, Slovakia, the last remaining nation in Europe without any confirmed cases of the virus, confirmed its first case and almost immediately implemented a ban on flights from Italy, which has been blamed for spreading the virus across the continent, per NYT.

Since the number of new cases being confirmed outside China surpassed the number of new cases being confirmed inside China early last week, South Korea, Italy, Iran and now the US have emerged as the new epicenters, though Europe’s largest economies are all struggling with largely uncontained outbreaks.

Across Europe, bureaucrats have been hesitant to suspend Schengen area free-travel, allowing the virus to effortlessly spread across the continent.

Jo Di 🏳️‍🌈@jodigraphics15

🔘 Daily new confirmed cases in the 8 countries with the most confirmed cases

Visit📊http://covid2019.app & follow👉@covid2019app for the latest updates

View image on Twitter
See Jo Di 🏳️‍🌈‘s other Tweets

Italy has been the European country hardest hit by the epidemic, with a total of 4,636 cases and 197 deaths on Friday, and is currently reporting more deaths per day form the virus than any other country in the world.

The coronavirus death toll in the United States reached 17 when Florida health officials reported two fatalities, the first in the state, late Friday, the Washington Post reports. They were the first deaths recorded outside the West Coast, where Washington State and California have emerged as the hardest hit states.

In Iran, officials reported 1,076 new cases of coronavirus and 21 new deaths on Saturday, bringing the total to 5,823 cases and 145 deaths. And a newly elected Iranina MP has died after two dozen Iranian lawmakers were infected, as well as several senior government officials.

In the Balkans, Bulgaria has closed all schools due to “influenza panic” – even though it’s only reported a handful of suspected cases.

Across the US, there are more than 300 cases reported (though not yet ‘confirmed’ by the CDC) and at least half of all states have confirmed cases. On Friday, Hawaii, Kentucky, Oklahoma, Connecticut, Nebraska, Indiana, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and South Carolina all confirmed their first cases of the virus.

Over in the tri-state area, where the virus has spread rapidly, nearly 50 cases have been confirmed (between NYC area, NJ & Connecticut). Here’s a flow-chart showing the progression of infections in the NYC area.

Universities, other major institutions and event planners canceled public gatherings and took other steps to combat the rapidly spreading virus. Stanford University said it would conduct classes online for the next two weeks, following the lead of the University of Washington in Seattle.

The biggest news overnight was that Austin’s South by Southwest festival has been cancelled. The cancellation is a huge blow to Austin’s economy – the event is one of the main drivers of Austin’s transformation from a quirky Texas college town to a ‘destination city’ for white middle-class post-grads with no real plans or ambition, other than to maybe work on-set during the next Linklater production.

Circling back to Iran, two lawmakers have now died, according to the Times of Israel, which cited reports from Iranian state news agency IRNA. 

An Iranian lawmaker died from the novel coronavirus on Saturday, becoming the latest lawmaker or senior government official to succumb to the deadly respiratory illness in a country that is experiencing probably the most lethal outbreak in the world.

In California, negotiations between the state and federal officials about where to dock the ‘Grand Princess’, the cruise ship stranded off the cost of San Francisco with at least 21 infected passengers and crew (mostly crew) on board. A state source close to the ongoing negotiations told the LA Times that talks would resume on Friday. The Princess Cruises ship remained at sea last night, but moved 20 nautical miles “for logistical purposes.”

end
ITALY

Leaked Quarantine Plans Create Chaos As Panicked Italians Sprint For The Exits, Threatening To Spread Virus

As the quarantine begins across the Italian north on Sunday, virology experts at the WHO, CDC and at universities around the world are waiting to see if Rome’s crackdown – coming a little too late, as many have pointed out, given the last two days’ worth of massive increases in the national case total – will work.

With the rules in place until April 3, Bloomberg points out, whether the public and local police and officials go along with the orders will ultimately determine whether they are successful or not.

Italians have become inured to alarming news over the past month as the outbreak has spiraled out of control in Lombardy. But following  a flurry of uncontrolled leaks warning about an imminent lockdown as part of the government’s planned emergency decree, restaurants and bars started emptying out and many fled to the train station, where they hopped trains to get out of the region, especially those who had plans to travel elsewhere that were being interrupted by the lockdown.

According to an SCMP reporter in Padua, packed bars and restaurants quickly emptied out as news of a coming lockdown hit, as many people rushed to the railway station. Travellers with suitcases, wearing face masks, gloves and carrying bottles of sanitising gel shoved their way on to the local train.

This appears to have been a phenomenon across the North. The video shows passengers with large bags packed heading toward a cross-country train to take them out of the quarantine zone and into the Italian south, where the virus has penetrated, but infection numbers and deaths remain much lower than in the north.

Gregor Peter@L0gg0l

Footage from Milan train station where suddenly people arrive to flee from the possible quarantine zone pic.twitter.com/gj52lSQgWZ (via @amos8125)

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This could be terrible news for the impoverished south: experts have repeatedly warned that southern Italy – best known as an agricultural and fishing center rife with organized crime – doesn’t possess the medical infrastructure to handle a surge in life-threatening cases of pneumonia.

While Andrew Cuomo has repeatedly insisted during his seemingly never-ending series of press conferences that the panic is worse than the virus itself, in Italy, the situation is rapidly deteriorating on both fronts. One epidemiologist described the series of panic-provoking leaks as “pure madness.”

Fortunately, Italian markets were closed during the panic, and now people have more or less accepted the new rules. But at this point, the horse is already out of the barn. Panicked Italians are now traveling around the country, potentially bringing the virus with them.

“The draft of a very harsh decree is leaked, sparking panic and prompting people to try and flee the [then] theoretical red zone, carrying the virus with them,” wrote Italian virologist Roberto Burioni on Twitter. “In the end, the only effect is to help the virus to spread. I’m lost for words.”

However, especially now that the panic has scattered northern Italians across the country, Alitalia is cancelling international flights, but leaving domestic travel uninterrupted (even as fares plummet as Italians mostly shun traveling during the outbreak). But as Bloomberg reports, whether these new intense restrictions impacting nearly 17 million Italians will be enforced and obeyed remains to be seen.

The most salient details of the Italian quarantine are as follows: In the quarantine region, weddings and funerals have been suspended, as well as religious and cultural events. Cinemas, night clubs, gyms, swimming pools, museums and ski resorts have been closed. Restaurants and cafes in the quarantined zones can open between 06:00 and 18:00 but customers must sit at least 1m (3ft) apart. People have been told to stay at home as much as possible, the BBC reports.

Those who willingly decide to break the quarantine could face three months in jail.

Restrictions apply to all of the Lombardy region, which includes many of Italy’s largest cities and most economically important provinces. According to Turkey’s Anadolou News Agency, along with Lombardy, the quarantine includes the cities of Modena, Parma, Piacenza, Reggio Emilia, Rimini, Pesaro e Urbino, Alessandria, Asti, Novara, Verbano Cusio Ossola, Vercelli, Padova, Treviso and Venice.

The order mostly impacts Lombardy, the region around Milan, as well as vast swathes of Piedmont, Veneto, Emilia Romagna and Marche. Venice is part of the affected zone, while Turin, home to the Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV headquarters, is outside, according to Bloomberg.PM Giuseppe Conte said sports matches will be held without crowds, and that schools in all quarantined locations will be on break until April 3.

Outside the quarantine zone, the decree issues new regulations for the rest of the country, including a recommendation to avoid travel outside home towns unless absolutely necessary, enforcing “social distancing” of one meter in all public venues – that is, encouraging people to stand roughly four feet away from one another – and restricting public events from demonstrations to theater shows.

Elderly people are advised to stay home, and schools and universities will remain closed nationwide until March 15.

Some regions have voiced resistance to different aspects of the order. The Veneto region opposes the inclusion of the Padua, Treviso and Venice provinces in the decree, according to a statement published by Ansa, according to Bloomberg.

Maurizio Rasero, the mayor of Asti, which is in the affected zone, denounced the quarantines as “madness, a disaster we didn’t expect.”

But even in southern Italy where, as we noted above, the outbreak isn’t yet widespread, local governments are taking steps to stop its arrival. The province of Puglia has ordered 14-day quarantines for all entering the province from an affected area. Regional president Michele Emiliano went a step further, telling northerners traveling to his town to turn around and go back.

Even before the outbreak, Italy’s economy was tipping into contraction. Now, the crisis has all but paralyzed business activity in Lombardy, which accounts for one-fifth of the country’s GDP, as well as the rest of the north, which is generally speaking more economically productive than the Italian south.

The impact is clear even in other regions that aren’t subject to the stricter controls. The Pompeii archaeological site near Naples and the Vatican museums are closed until April 3, and an exhibit of Renaissance master Raphael in Rome was halted.

In Rome, the government has decided on Thursday to double emergency spending to 7.5 billion euros ($8.5 billion) to help cushion the economic impact of the virus. It’s also calling up 20,000 doctors, nurses and medical personnel to help deal with the outbreak. Fallout from the virus’s spread is slamming Italy’s key tourism industry, which is worth almost 15% of GDP, at a time when the country is already teetering on the brink of recession.

Sensing the looming threat to economic stability, the EU is playing ball, advising the Italians that their stimulus spending won’t be counted against the bloc’s budgetary thresholds. But will Berlin and Frankfurt play ball when it comes to loosening Germany’s purse strings in violation of the constitutional ‘debt break’?

END

ITALY

6 Killed, Dozens Wounded During Coronavirus-Inspired Prison Riot In Italy

A prison riot reportedly broke out Sunday afternoon at an Italian prison in the city of Modena that has left six dead, according to the Italian newspaper Corriere di Bologna.

The riot, which started at around 2 pm local time, started when about 60 inmates decided to set the prison on fire in an attempted mass escape reportedly inspired by the coronavirus quarantine crackdown. Inmates were reportedly told that family members wouldn’t be allowed to visit during the quarantine (remember what happened in those Chinese prisons?). This left dozens furious and, in an overcrowded prison, that type of rage can spread quickly.

Inmates demands for more information about policies being put in place to suppress the virus certainly helped spark the riot, but local officials were careful to characterize the riot as something that happened “in addition” to the outbreak, not because of it, while critics noted longstanding issues like overcrowding contributed to the unrest.

Shortly after prisoners overwhelmed the guards, a contingent of police arrived, sparking a confrontation that led to an hours-long faceoff.

While six have been killed so far, more fatalities are expected, as dozens were badly wounded in the fighting, while others reportedly overdosed on medications like methadone and benzodiazepines as prisons apparently raided the prison hospital and stole all the methadone and Xanax they could find. Authorities insist that half of the six deaths so far could be attributed to overdoses, though that sounds…somewhat suspicious to us.

According to Corriere, the police intervention stopped 500 prisoners from escaping. On Italian twitter, reports that the 500 prisoners had escaped were being reported as fact.

We hope to learn more about the riots later in the day. But will this uprising inspire others across the locked-down north?

END

GERMANY ET AL/CORONAVIRUS/ MONDAY

German Health Ministry Confirms First 2 Coronavirus Deaths, NY Reports 142 New Cases: Live Updates

Summary:

  • First 2 Coronavirus deaths recorded in Germany
  • Confirmed cases near or pass 1,000 in France, Germany and Spain
  • Germany state of Brandenburg has between 4k and 5k in home quarantine
  • PM Johnsons says UK won’t close parliament
  • Trump to hold WH meeting on fiscal stimulus
  • Italian PM promises “massive shock therapy” to save economy from coronavirus
  • Deutsche Bank cancels 150-year-anniversary celebrations
  • Dozens of flights leave northern Italy despite quarantine, even as airlines cancel routes
  • Moody’s says US economy headed for recession
  • Cuomo confirms 142 new cases in New York State, bringing total confirmed in NYC to 19
  • NY has started making its own sanitizer
  • Columbia University cancels classes, Princeton moves lectures online
  • 77 new public health labs open across US Monday
  • Spain PM says he will have ’emergency plan’ to tackle outbreak
  • UK confirms another 45 cases
  • VP Pence will hold press conference at 5:30ET Monday
  • Amtrak shutters ‘Acela Corrider’
  • Korean construction worker contracted by US military tests positive
  • Total number of cases in Italy hits 7,375
  • ‘Grand Princess’ will soon dock in Oakland
  • Trump congratulates VP Pence via tweet
  • New cases in South Korea drop as Philippines case total doubles
  • EUCO President says conference call will be held to coordinate EU response
  • Germany and France finmins hold talks to discuss crisis
  • Missouri declares first “presumptive” positive Sunday night; father of patient breaks quarantine
  • Dutch infections climb to 321

* * *

Update (1140ET): Port Authority Executive Director Rick Cotton has been diagnosed with the coronavirus. Cotton, the executive director of the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey, the independent quasi-public government agency responsible for the port, apparently contracted the virus after visiting airports and other Port Authority facilities.

He is at home under quarantine, NY Gov. Andrew Cuomo said.

During what has become a daily (sometimes twice-daily) live press update, Cuomo confirmed that the number of cases in New York State has climbed to 142, with 16 new cases in Westchester, 7 new cases in NYC, 12 new cases in Nassau County, 2 new cases in Rockland County and 1 new case in Ulster County:

With 142 cases of the new coronavirus, New York has 6% of the cases in the nation, however, only 8 of those people are hospitalized currently.

After reiterating that the panic and hysteria is far out of proportion to what’s actually happening, Cuomo said Monday morning that as the national run on Purell continues, the state will produce its own hand sanitzier, which it can accomplish at a cost of $6 a gallon to make the NYS hand sanitizer.

The product is being produced at the Great Meadow Correctional Facility in Washington County. Unfortunately for NYC residents, the hand sanitizer is not available to the general public; it’s being provided, for free, to school districts and municipalities.

Cuomo added that the NYS hand-sanitizer has “a floral bouquet” – before adding that he was joking, though in all seriousness the governor said he did detect a “hint of citrus.”

Speaking after Cuomo, NYS Health Commissioner Howard Zucker says the state, in consultation with the CDC, is considering a closure of the public schools in New Rochelle for a period of weeks. Jewish schools in the city, a locus for new coronavirus infections, are already closed. Zucker added that New York state’s public health labs can test “several hundred” coronavirus samples each day.

In addition, Cuomo said the state has shut down nursing homes in the Westchester County city of New Rochelle to visitors. He urged other nursing homes to be cautious because “this is the vulnerable population.” Cuomo said he spoke with VP Pence on Monday about NY getting approval for automated testing.

Jimmy Vielkind

@JimmyVielkind

Cuomo gave the first gallon of NYS hand sanitizer to @J__Velasquez

View image on Twitter

Outside the evacuees, at least 15 patients have recovered: Six in California, four in Nebraska, two in Illinois, one in Washington, one in Arizona and one in Wisconsin.

Here’s an updated case map of the US, courtesy of NBC News:

* * *

Update (1130ET): In a landmark moment for the coronavirus outbreak in Europe, German health officials have reported the first coronavirus-linked death on German soil, Bild reports.

Moments later, the German health ministry confirmed that two patients have died on Germany soil.

This comes after a German man died in Egypt yesterday.

* * *

Update (11:25ET): A statement delivered minutes ago by the CDC asked colleges and universities with students studying abroad to consider bringing them back to the US, and that upcoming study abroad programs should be cancelled.

* * *

Update (1120ET): Italian PM Giuseppe Conte promised earlier on Monday a “massive shock therapy” intended to revive the Italian economy.

Reuters

@Reuters

Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte promised ‘massive shock therapy’ to overcome the impact of the outbreak, after his government shut off much of the country’s industrial and business heartlands https://reut.rs/3cDaMH7

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55 people are talking about this

Conte also urged Europe to embrace “strong” action to stop the outbreak. These sentiments were echoed by French President Emmanuel Macron on Monday, when he demanded that Europe come up with a “strong, massive and coordinated response”. During a euro zone finance ministers meeting next week, the bloc is expected to come up with a plan to revive to Continental economy and avoid a brutal downturn.

* * *

Update (1115ET): The German state of Brandenburg, which encircles Berlin, has reportedly between 4,000 to 5,000 locals in an at-home quarantine following a “presumptive” case was confirmed in the area. Dozens of cases have been confirmed in Berlin, but ‘community transmission’ in the region hasn’t been confirmed.

Elsewhere in Germany, Deutsche Bank has reportedly cancelled festivities scheduled in Berlin on Saturday to celebrate the bank’s 150-year-anniversary.

* * *

Update (1058ET): If there was ever a moment that an aide needed to seize the president’s phone…this is it.

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

So last year 37,000 Americans died from the common Flu. It averages between 27,000 and 70,000 per year. Nothing is shut down, life & the economy go on. At this moment there are 546 confirmed cases of CoronaVirus, with 22 deaths. Think about that!

Trump has become one of those “it’s only the flu” people? Hasn’t somebody explained to him why this is a flawed argument?

Mark B. Spiegel@markbspiegel

Coronavirus has 10x the mortality rate of flu and 3x the RO.

With your attitude I’ll stay short, thanks.

35 people are talking about this

Diogenes@WallStCynic

He really doesn’t get that this is his Katrina Moment, does he? https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1237024551294382081 

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Saudi Arabia and Russia are arguing over the price and flow of oil. That, and the Fake News, is the reason for the market drop!

Hopefully, they can keep the US death toll below that of Hurricane Katrina, at least. More US classes, including Colombia University in New York, are cancelling classes for the rest of the semester, while Princeton, an Ivy League institution in New Jersey, is moving its lectures online.

Meanwhile, Irish carrier Ryan Air has stopped more flights to and from Italian cities. Other carriers to drop some or all flights to and from Italy include Alitalia (the country’s flagship carrier, which is only flying domestic right now), Delta Air Lines has also cancelled some flights, has has British Airlines.

However, despite these cancellations and the quarantine, there are still dozens of flights leaving northern Italy on Monday.

Flightradar24

@flightradar24

Several airlines have cancelled their flights to and from northern Italy, but still there are quite a lot of flights operating to and from the 5 airports in Milan and Venice (MXP, LIN, BGY, VCE, TSF)

View image on Twitter

 

Update (1045ET): President Trump, oil analyst, has checked back into the chat.

While we suspect Trump is less-than-pleased with today’s equity-market selloff (hence the headline a few moments ago about a White House meeting to discuss economic stimulus plans), the president has proven time and time again that he doesn’t really understand the downside of falling oil prices (though the Fed very much does, thanks to Powell’s comments on HY credit).

Which is why he didn’t hesitate to celebrate the drop in prices as a de facto ‘tax cut’ for Americans.

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Saudi Arabia and Russia are arguing over the price and flow of oil. That, and the Fake News, is the reason for the market drop!

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Good for the consumer, gasoline prices coming down!

It’s good for the consumers: In other words, the federal government is telling them they should avoid traveling or even leaving the house. But if they decide to roll the dice, at least gasoline will be cheap, cheap, cheap!

* * *

Update (1027ET): Following President Trump’s return to the White House this afternoon, a meeting about options for ‘economic stimulus’ – which the administration has said could include more tax cuts – will be held with some of the administration’s top economic advisors.

Steve Herman

@W7VOA

Economic stimulus meeting to held here at the @WhiteHouse after @POTUS returns this afternoon, according to officials.

That headline couldn’t have come at a better time, having just followed this remark from Moody’s economist Mark Zandi, one of the loudest voices in the market place.

John Harwood

@JohnJHarwood

Moody’s economist Mark Zandi: US economy now likely to lapse into recession in 2020

If Trump is lacking for ideas, he could give the US economy research desk at 200 West a ring. They’ve already committed a few ideas to paper.

In the US, equity markets have bounced off their lows.

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

So much FAKE NEWS!

Ahead of the meeting between Trump and his economic team, where Trump will be presented with a “full menu of economic options”, one source told CNBC’s Eamon Javers that oil-market intervention wouldn’t be a part of the plan.

Eamon Javers

@EamonJavers

1. With markets in turmoil this morning, where are we on virus stimulus? I’ve spoken to two senior admin officials today who say the WH is working on various ideas. But it doesn’t seem to have gone much further than the brainstorming stage.

Eamon Javers

@EamonJavers

2. A senior administration official tells me this morning virus ideas were kicked around at the WH over the weekend. But he cautions that there’s nothing on paper and it is still a long way off. “Under pressure, will they want to say they have a plan? Yes. Do they? Not really.”

Eamon Javers

@EamonJavers

3. How about global oil markets in distress? I asked a senior administration official if US government will intervene in any way in oil markets. He said “I hope not” and that he has not heard of any such idea. He said WH believes global markets will straighten themselves out.

Eamon Javers

@EamonJavers

4. The president has spent the morning tweeting insults and complaints at Obama/Biden, Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, Chuck Schumer and the media. He believes his political enemies are trying to inflame the coronavirus story to make it look worse than it is.

Eamon Javers

@EamonJavers

5. I’m told President Trump will be meeting with his economic team at the WH when he returns from his trip to Florida this afternoon. The team will present him with a “full menu” of economic options to respond to the virus.

Eamon Javers

@EamonJavers

6. A senior administration official tells me the president is aware of the stock market sell off this morning. “All of this is discouraging,” the official says of the market today. “It’s a tough one and we’re going to work our way through it.”

Eamon Javers

@EamonJavers

7. I asked a senior administration official if WH is contemplating any action on oil markets today: “I don’t know what to do,” the official said. “This is the Saudis vs the Russians. Obviously it’s a negative for our frackers. But consumers will like lower prices at the pump.“

While it’s definitely a short-term negative for US shale, we’re sure President Trump won’t mind the de facto ‘tax cut’ for consumers.

* * *

Update (1015ET): Across the US, 77 public health labs have finished setting up their Covid-19 testing as of Monday morning. Seven more labs are in the middle of the ‘process of verification’, which involves the CDC.

David Lim

@davidalim

NEW: 77 public health labs have testing up as of this morning, according to @APHL.

That includes 49 states and DC. 7 more are in the process of verification.

* * *

Update (0950ET): While the world has been transfixed by the chaos in American equity markets as the first major circuit breaker is triggered, the coronavirus news just keeps coming:

Five new cases have been confirmed in Scotland, bringing the Scottish total to 23, and the UK-wide total to 281. Spain has closed schools in the Basque town of Labastida for 14 days. Italy’s market watchdog Consob said in a statement on Monday that halting stock-market trading would generate long-term problems. However, a ban on short selling could be considered when shares’ movement exceed 10% and if other conditions are in place, as per European rules.

CNN reported that the Trump Administration is considering ‘discouraging’ Americans from taking air travel.

Three additional coronavirus cases were confirmed in New York City bringing the total to 16 confirmed cases, according to Mayor Bill de Blasio’s spokesperson Freddi Goldstein.

Miranda Barbot@MirandaBarbot

NEW today from @NYCMayor and @DOEChancellor on @NYCSchools: all school trips abroad will be canceled, and this week, 85 nurses will be added to school buildings to ensure full coverage. https://twitter.com/nycmayor/status/1236721389534466048 

Mayor Bill de Blasio

@NYCMayor

Join us at @NYCEmergencyMgt Headquarters for updates on our city’s response to COVID-19. https://www.pscp.tv/w/cTPgKzF4blFyeW5Hbk5MRVl8MXluS09wcmdQcHFHUhFF7Wra8YrMWfAnq9zLlEtYlDscKxpN15JvSp1bB6MV 

The three new cases raise the NYS total to 108. Above, Mayor de Blasio says 85 additional school nurses will be dispatched to help deal with the coronavirus-related demand.

Celia Au

@ItsCeliaAu

There’s not a single confirmed case of an Asian infected in NYC. Stop discriminating cause the virus definitely doesn’t.

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Finally, national UK health officials have confirmed another batch of cases, bringing the total to 319 from 273.

Meanwhile, the WHO is holding its daily press conference:

* * *

Update (0915ET): As critics slam President Trump for not focusing on the virus, the commander-in-chief of the American armed forces tweeted another congratulatory message to VP Mike Pence.

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Great job being done by the @VP and the CoronaVirus Task Force. Thank you!

Trump also insisted that the best decision he made was closing off travel from China early on as epidemiologist slam his administration for not stockpiling enough tests.

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

The BEST decision made was the toughest of them all – which saved many lives. Our VERY early decision to stop travel to and from certain parts of the world!

Unfortunately, it would have been better if the CDC had administered more than 2,000 tests as of eod Friday, but those unfortunately aren’t the circumstances on the ground. We look forward to hearing more from the administration tonight – perhaps some encouraging information about when the market can expect test kits to be made available to everyone who needs one – when VP Pence leads a press conference beginning at 5:30 pm ET.

Over in China, officials in Wuhan announced Monday that they would be closing 11 of the 18 makeshift hospitals built during the outbreak.

* * *

Update (0845ET): Following UK PM Boris Johnson’s emergency meeting Monday morning with fellow government officials, the UK leadership has reportedly decided against closing Parliament over the outbreak, though access to visitors will be strictly limited.

Sebastian Payne

@SebastianEPayne

NEW: House of Commons Commission met this morning and has decided against closing Parliament over coronavirus fears.

But there’s an expectation that access to Parliament will be restricted to visitors “within the next week.” Sources say they’ll be guided by Cobra meetings.

Overnight, the number of confirmed cases in Spain nearly doubled, going from 589 on March 8 to 999 on March 9. In response, the government has ordered all schools and universities in the country to close. With acute concentrations of cases in the capital, Madrid, as well as the country’s industrial hub in the Basque country, deaths have climbed to 26 across the country. In Madrid alone, confirmed cases increased by about 200 between Sunday and Monday, BBG reports.

After the number of cases in the Philippines doubled to 20 on Monday, from now on well-wishers will not be allowed to touch Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte to protect him from the coronavirus, his security detail said. Duterte is 74, and thus technically a high-risk patient.

In Iran officials have temporarily released 70,000 prisoners in a bid to contain coronavirus in the country.

Iran’s Mizan news agency quoted judiciary chief Ebrahim Raisi as saying “it is necessary for the temporary release of prisoners to continue… so long as it does not create insecurity in society.”

In the Netherlands, cases have climbed to 321, according to local media reports.

* * *

Update (0830ET):  As Boris Johnson holds an emergency meeting with senior government leaders in London, across the Channel, European Council President Charles Michel said Monday that Brussels would be hosting a conference call with all EU leaders.

  • PRES. OF EUCO MICHEL: FOLLOWING CONSULTATIONS, I WILL HOLD A EUCO MEMBERS CONFERENCE CALL SHORTLY ON COVID-19 TO COORDINATE EU EFFORTS. WE NEED TO COOPERATE IN ORDER TO PROTECT THE HEALTH OF OUR CITIZENS.

Meanwhile, over in India, four new cases of the virus have been confirmed, including a 3-year-old child.

In Spain, which is finally confronting the severity of its outbreak as the number of confirmed cases teeters right at the 1,000-case mark, and the president of neighboring Portugal has gone into quarantine, is preparing to unfurl an “emergency plan” of its own, according to socialist PM Pedro Sanchez.

  • SPAIN’S PM SÁNCHEZ: THE GOVT. PREPARES TO LAUNCH AN EMERGENCY PLAN TO DEAL WITH CORONAVIRUS AS SOON AS POSSIBLE.

* * *

Update (0650ET): As case counts explode across Europe, it looks like Spain – conveniently, Europe’s fourth-largest economy – will be next to cross the 1,000-confirmed-case threshold.

  • SPANISH CORONAVIRUS CASES JUMP TO 999: HEALTH MINISTRY

The health ministry has also just reported another 8 deaths, raising the total to 25.

* * *

Update (0620ET): As case totals climb above 1,000 in Europe’s two largest economies – France and Germany – while one-fifth to one-quarter of the Italian economy (Europe’s third-largest) goes offline, the finance ministers of France and Germany have reportedly been commiserating about their shared predicament this morning.

Hawky@TheRealHawky

FRENCH FINANCE MINISTER LE MAIRE SAYS SPOKE WITH GERMAN COUNTERPART AT LENGTH ON MONDAY TO COORDINATE RESPONSE TO CORONAVIRUS OUTBREAK

“We’re fucked”

“Yep, we’re fucked”

And that’s pretty much all that needs to be said about that.

In other news, VP Pence will hold a briefing in the situation room at noon, followed by several other briefings throughout the day, culminating with a public press briefing at 5:30.

* * *

Since we checked in last on Sunday evening, hundreds of new cases have been confirmed in Europe and Asia, but the ambient level of global hysteria has seemingly escalated with the limit-down moves in seemingly every global market that isn’t nailed down.

In the US, 537 cases have been identified since the first cases arrived in Washington State and California back in January, including the dozens of travel-related and ‘community spread’-related cases, along with the ~50 evacuees, according to the Washington Post.

An emblematic sign of the hysteria in the US, Amtrak has suspended its non-stop service between New York and Washington – suspending travel along the so-called “Acela corridor” for power commuters who routinely travel back and forth between NY, Washington, Philly, Boston and all the places in between.

Late last night, the state of Missouri confirmed its first “presumptive positive,” a girl who lives at home with her parents, according to a local TV station.

News reports claimed that the father of the student broke quarantine by attending a school dance with his other daughter, Fox News reported.

A school attended by the patient’s sister has closed out of an “abundance of caution.”

In the US, Dr. Anthony Fauci said yesterday that the US would have 400,000 more test kits available on Monday, and 4 million more by the end of the week. So get ready for an explosion in US cases.

More tech firms and banks are telling all employees who can to work from home until further notice.

In the UK, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is planning to lead an emergency meeting of the government on the virus a day after cases doubled in the UK to 273, while deaths have held steady at 3 since Saturday. On Monday, two new cases have been confirmed in Wales (marking 6 all together), while a healthcare professional at University Hospital Southampton has also tested positive, raising the national total to 276, per the BBC.

Over the weekend, we saw the first signs of optimism out of South Korea, as the mayor of Daegu, the epicenter of the South Korean outbreak, reported a sharp drop in newly confirmed cases, evidence that the outbreak is slowing (since the South Koreans have been matched only by the Hong Kongers and Singaporeans in efficiency of testing), he said. The slowdown in new SK cases gave Italy the opportunity to snatch the crown, becoming the undisputed new global epidemic leader outside China (though the outbreak in Iran is certainly much more severe, however, the regime has chosen to hide the extent of deaths and confirmed cases).

CNN adds that a construction worker contracted by the US military in Korea has tested positive for the coronavirus, making this the eighth USFK-related patient. An hour ago, South Korea confirmed 96 more cases, bringing national total to 7,478, marking a sharp slowdown in new cases.

 

As the quarantine across the Italian north enters its first business week, the total number of cases in Italy has hit 7,375, with 366 deaths. The situation is getting so bad, that riots are breaking out in Italian prisons, with one leaving 6 dead.

Courtesy of the BBC

As an editorial writer for the Washington Post explains, current estimates suggest that it takes about a week for the number of cases to double, though there’s considerable uncertainty around the exact number. According to this principle, for each death, there are 49 other infections in the community when the patient who died became infected.

That means, one week later, as that patient is seeing symptoms first emerge, that number has doubled to 98. After two weeks, when the patient is seeing his symptoms intensify, the number of community cases is 196. During week three, as the patient is lying on his or her deathbed, the number of community infections will have climbed to 396.

In Iran, the head of the country’s Crisis Management Agency, Esmaeel Najjar, has been confirmed infected with the virus. Najjar was discharged from the hospital and has been self-quarantining at home, according to Iran’s ISNA state-controlled news agency.

Offering a stark contrast to the panic that is engulfing Europe, Iran and the US, in China, Shanghai Disney has started “phased reopening” of some shopping and dining destinations have reopened, though the main park – Shanghai Disneyland – remains closed. Meanwhile, the first case of coronavirus has been confirmed among staff at Disneyland Paris, according to Le Parisien. The patient, who had been off sick since symptoms emerged days ago, is quarantining at home.

Germany and France are each seeing the number of confirmed cases break above 1,000. Germany confirmed another 256 cases on Monday, bringing its national total to 1,112, according to the Robert Kock Institute, Germany disease-control agency. After banning gatherings with more than 1,000 people in attendance as we noted last night, French officials confirmed that the national total had climbed to 1,126, with more than 200 new cases. The death toll in France stands at 19, while the German outbreak, which is still mostly confined to Bavaria, specifically the state of North Rhine-Westphalia, hasn’t recorded any deaths.

Cruise ships attempting to enter Puerto Rico must first certify that there are not coronavirus cases on board, Gov. Wanda Vazquez Garced claimed in a tweet on Sunday. This followed a local controversy that erupted after the Costa Luminosa, a cruise ship with a rumored sick passenger aboard, allowed its passengers to disembark in San Juan.

Wanda Vázquez Garced

@wandavazquezg

Hemos ordenado que todo crucero que pretenda entrar a Puerto Rico tiene que confirmar que no tiene pasajeros abordo con casos sospechosos y cumple con los criterios de sintomatología e historial de viaje del gobierno federal referentes al COVID-19. @DeptSaludPR

View image on Twitter

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The State Department has published a warning on Monday telling Americans not to travel on cruises, saying the US government can’t continue to intervene with passenger ships quarantined at sea.

Finally, officials in China, who confirmed just 30 cases in Hubei late last night, have also confirmed that at least 11 have died following the collapse of a hotel being used as a quarantine that we reported on over the weekend. 80 were inside the building when it came down, while nine escaped, 71 were trapped. Of those, 50 have been pulled from the rubble, and 21 remained unaccounted for on Monday afternoon.

In other new overnight developments, an American in Saudi Arabia has tested positive for the virus, according to the Saudi health ministry. The man had been travelling from the Philippines and Italy before arriving in the kingdom. Three others in al Qateef Province, including two Bahraini citizens, have also been infected. This comes after Saudi Arabia presided over the dissolution of OPEC and a ramped-up rivalry with Russia that has prompted the largest drop in oil prices since the early 90s Gulf War.

Over in Oakland, the ‘Grand Princess’ cruise ship is preparing to dock at the Port of Oakland later in the day on Monday. The ship’s captain and Carnival-owned Princess cruises have said the disembarkation process will be “a multiple day process.”

“Disembarkation will commence in order of priority, as defined and directed by both state and local authorities. It is expected to be a multiple day process,” said the release.

“Once disembarkation of the guests is completed, the crew will remain onboard and Grand Princess will depart from San Francisco bay. Plans for a crew quarantine are still being determined.”

We’ll be keeping a close eye on the situation in California and New York State, which is also seeing a surge in cases following an outbreak in a Westchester Jewish Community based in New Rochelle.

END

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

LEBANON

This is going to be problematic for our bankers as Lebanon defaulted on 1.2 billion dollar debt. Their deb to GDP is a high 170%

(zerohedge)

Lebanon Announces Default On $1.2BN Debt Payment In Historical First

Lebanon announced Saturday it will default on its Eurobond debt for the first time in its history. The protest-racked country has seen a recent change in government, banks opened for merely about half of the past few months, strict controls on hard currency withdrawals and transfers abroad amid a liquidity crisis, a plummeting Lebanese Lira since October, a run on dollars, and crushing public debt which has lately blown up to nearly 170% of its gross domestic product (now about $89.5 billion).

Prime Minister Hassan Diab confirmed in public statements the bond payment of $1.2 billion due on Monday will not be paid: The debt has become bigger than Lebanon can bear, and bigger than the ability of the Lebanese to meet interest payments,” he said in a televised address. “We are paying the price for the mistakes of the past years. Must we bequeath them to our children?”

 

Lebanese Government photo of Prime Minister Hassan Diab during his Saturday address, via AP.

The broader crisis is being widely described as the worst and most potentially destabilizing disaster since the 1975-90 civil war. It also means that the country’s bond which mature on Monday and which last traded at a price of 57 cents on the dollar (or roughly 8000% YTM) won’t be repaid.

Local banks, which own some of the Eurobonds set to mature on March 9, have long argued against a default. But clients also fear the continued rapid depletion of their savings. Diab, appearing to respond not only to the people in the streets but to criticisms from the West centered on the Mediterranean nation’s decades of state corruption, pledged to continue negotiations to restructure the country’s debt “with all creditors… in a manner consistent with the national interest.”

“How can we pay creditors abroad when the Lebanese cannot get their money from their bank accounts?” Diab questioned, referencing controversial emergency measures banks have enacted since the start of the year, which in most places has limited account holders to withdrawing a mere $200 total a week. The Lebanese had “lived a dream that was a delusion as though things were just fine, while Lebanon was drowning in more debt,” he said further.

The domestic divide on the first ever default, which didn’t even occur during the civil war period, is further described as follows:

According to Marwan Barakat, head of research at Bank Audi, Lebanese banks owned $12.7bn of the country’s outstanding $30bn Eurobonds as of the end of January.

The central bank held $5.7bn and the remainder was owned by foreign creditors, he said.

According to local media reports, Lebanese banks have recently sold a chunk of their Eurobonds to foreign lenders.

Anti-government demonstrators who have remained on the streets since October have lobbied against repayment, fearing a depletion of reserves could further limit access to their savings.

In one of the more deeply alarming moments of his speech, Diab  who’s only been prime minister since January after the former government stepped down  cited World Bank figures forecasting that over 40% of the population could soon enter poverty. And Monday’s default, it will be even sooner.

Stretching back to last year, massive and sometimes violent intermittent anti-corruption protests have at times brought major cities to a stand-still, as the enraged public has consistently accused the national and commercial banks of “theft” while the bankers desperately attempted to defend against a massive run on the dollar and lack of confidence in the local currently.

 

Image source: AFP.

All of this of course also comes as ill-prepared Beirut health officials deal with coronavirus, given there’s been at least 15 confirmed cases since late February.

“Whether it’s coronavirus, or any disease, or any problem, the government isn’t prepared to deal with anything,” a real estate broker told Reuters this week. It will be remarkable how often that complaint is repeated when addressing countless other governments around the globe.

END

IRAN/USA/ISRAEL

Iranian Regime Blames Coronavirus On Anti Semitic “Zionist Conspiracy”

As the Iranian regime struggles to maintain its legitimacy following one of the most challenging quarters in its 40-year history, it has added another longstanding enemy of the Iranian people to its list of parties responsible for the coronavirus outbreak that has killed thousands (officially 233) in the country.

That enemy? Israel and the Jews.

According to the Jerusalem Post, Iran’s Press TV, the regime’s English-language propaganda network, has been pushing antisemitic conspiracies about the coronavirus in order to distract from Tehran’s abject mishandling of the outbreak, which has killed at least two lawmakers and several senior government officials.

Somehow, by sheer luck, perhaps, President Rouhani and the Ayatollah have avoided infection despite reports about contacts with sick officials in their government.

Given that these failings are coming just weeks after the regime embarrassed itself in front of the world by shooting down a passenger plane packed with students, it’s perhaps unsurprising that in their desperation, the regime is appealing to the people’s most base impulses.

Over the last several days, Iran has pushed reports claiming that “Zionists” created the coronavirus. As evidence, Press TV cited an article from the same anti-semitic website that once published an article – widely distributed in Iran – about how America’s Jewish population is responsible for the country’s wars in the Middle East.

On March 5, Press TV claimed that “Zionist elements developed deadlier strain of coronavirus against Iran.” Although the report claimed to reference a foreign “academic,” it fits the pattern of Iran using foreign experts to give the regime’s own views a sense of authority. The agenda of Tehran has been three-fold since the coronavirus outbreak began to affect Iran in mid-February. Iran initially denied that there was a virus outbreak in February so that it could increase voter turnout on February 21.

A few weeks back, after several government officials were infected, the Iranian regime latched on to Chinese propaganda ‘conspiracies’ claiming the US invented the virus and unleashed it as a ‘bioweapon’ against its adversaries.

However the IRGC had other ideas. Its leader Hossein Salami began telling people that the virus was “biological warfare” derived from the US. “We are now dealing with a biological war,” he said on March 5. He argued it “may be the product of American biological warfare.” The IRGC’s narrative qquickly became Press TV’s talking point. An article on the homepage on March 8 links to the claim that not only is the US waging “biological warfare” but also cites an article that argues Israel is behind the virus. According to this article, a “former CIA officer” has argued that “the US and Israel are working together.” The same source that Iran’s Press TV relied on for its March 8 article is the same website in the US that once published an article claiming “America’s Jews are driving America’s wars.” That article was tweeted by another former CIA member Valerie Plame in 2017. She is now seeking to run for Congress even though her chances hit a setback on March 7 at a pre-primary convention. Iran’s Press TV relies on the same antisemitic rantings for its articles today about coronavirus.

Unfortunately, these made-up stories are mostly a sign of desperation.

end

6.Global Issues

GLOBAL/CORONAVIRUS/UPDATE/SUNDAY

US Death Toll Hits 21 As 2 More Washington Nursing Home Patients Succumb To Virus: Live Updates

Summary:

  • Italy reports 2nd straight 1,000+ jump in cases, deaths jump 60%; mortality rate in Italy hits 5%
  • New York State confirms 16 new cases bringing total north of 100
  • Mayor de Blasio says NYC could see hundreds of cases in 2-3 weeks
  • Death toll hits 21 as 2 more cases confirmed in Washington State
  • Oregon declares state of emergency
  • 16 million Italians wake up under quarantine
  • Egypt reports Africa’s first coronavirus death, a German citizen
  • Pope Francis cancels Sunday address
  • Dr. Fauci warns community spread is getting out of control.
  • ‘Grand Princess’ to dock in Oakland on Monday
  • Saudi Arabia quarantines province
  • France, Germany call for bans on events with over 1,000
  • Still no word on timing of when ‘Grand Princess’ will land
  • Patient in Japan develops meningitis
  • Spain death toll hits 17, 600+ cases
  • Cuomo says he wants to avoid closing NYC schools, transit if possible
  • Iran official death toll hits 194
  • Daegu Mayor says outbreak may be slowing as number of new cases falls

* * *

Update (1615ET): NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio just warned that there could be :”hundreds” of cases of Covid-19 in the city in a matter of two or three weeks, up from 13 now.

  • NEW YORK CITY COULD HAVE 100 CORONAVIRUS CASES WITHIN TWO TO THREE WEEKS, UP FROM 13 NOW -MAYOR DE BLASIO
  • NEW YORK CITY COULD AT SOME POINT HAVE HUNDREDS OF POSITIVE CORONAVIRUS CASES -MAYOR DE BLASIO

Meanwhile, two more deaths in Washington State have increased the US death toll to 21, up from 19.

The State Department is cautioning Americans, especially those with existing health conditions, not to travel by cruise ship, citing the increased risk of catching the virus.

“Many countries have implemented screening procedures, denied port entry rights to ships and prevented disembarking,” they said in a tweet.

Travel – State Dept

@TravelGov

U.S. citizens, especially with underlying conditions, should not travel by cruise ship. notes increased risk of on cruises. Many countries have implemented screening procedures, denied port entry rights to ships and prevented disembarking. https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/international-travel/before-you-go/travelers-with-special-considerations/cruise-ship-passengers.html?fbclid=IwAR23mRlu4-382HLuSM8i0KWQBSaZ4heDniggmxR3kBR6e2EgWiKr6B0EseM 

View image on Twitter

ABC News reports that two more people have died of Covid-19 in Washington state, citing local health officials.

Both patients – a woman in her 80s and a man in his 90s – are Life Care Center residents, according to the King County Health Department. The woman died on Friday, and the man died on Thursday.

Of the 18 deaths reported in Washington, 16 have been associated with Life Care nursing home facility.

Two deaths have occurred in Florida and another in California, bringing the total in the US to 21.

Elsewhere in Florida, the Regal Princess cruise ship has been forced to remain offshore by the CDC and HHS while two of its crew members are tested for the virus.

If one or both come back positive, that could mean the start of another cruise ship nightmare in the US.

Officials in Clark County Nevada, an area that is mostly contiguous with Las Vegas, has confirmed its second patient.

* * *

Update (1530ET): Yesterday, we reported the six new cases of Covid-19 in British Columbia.

Now, officials in the province have identified another outbreak at a nursing home in the province, the second such outbreak in the Pacific Northwest, in addition to the nursing home in Kirkland, Washington. The pair was infected by a staff member at the Lynn Valley Care Center in North Vancouver. Provincial Health Officer Dr. Bonnie Henry said the facility is basically on lockdown as the provincial authorities try to keep the virus from spreading.

As we head into the middle of the day in California, let’s circle back to the ‘Grand Princess’, the virus-plagued cruise ship drifting 20 nautical miles off the coast as it awaits plans to dock at the Port of Oakland on Monday. The ship’s captain, John Smith, said Sunday that the crew still doesn’t know at approximately what time they would be docking. Not that it matters: It will take at least a day for the non-priority (i.e. those not dying of Covid-19) passengers to exit the ship. And of course, anybody found to be infected will be quarantined, according to the Washington Post.

The captain added that one passenger in dire need of hospitalization will be taken off the ship Sunday but government authorities have not yet told cruise officials when the remaining passengers would be able to arrive at port.

“We know this will be a disappointment to you, and we share in that disappointment,” the captain said in a message that was shared with WaPo and the r/coronavirus board. “However, we are required to follow the government instructions.”

More than 3,500 people are aboard the Grand Princess, and of the 46 tested for the coronavirus so far, 21 have tested positive. When the ship docks, the cruise line says, guests who are California residents will undergo health screenings and go to federal facilities in the state, while Americans from other states will be taken to locations elsewhere in the country. The crew will be quarantined and treated aboard, the cruise line said Saturday.

The captain said the ship would rendezvous with a Coast Guard cutter to collect prescription medicines and other medications for people on board (one patient is reportedly in danger of missing vital chemo treatments. One of the passengers requires “shoreside hospital care,” he said, so that person will go to shore. The captain did not elaborate on the person’s condition or say whether the person was among those who tested positive.

In France, as the number of confirmed cases grows, officials have called for a ban on events with over 1,000 attendees, after earlier banning events with more than 500. This follows in the footsteps of Germany, where lawmakers made a similar request on Sunday.

* * *

Update (1425ET): A state of emergency impacting certain heavily flooded counties is still in effect from a few weeks ago, but on Sunday, Oregon Gov. Kate Brown has declared a state of emergency over the novel coronavirus in the state. The state of emergency will remain in effect for 60 days, and can be extended if necessary. The Oregon Health Authority has confirmed 14 – 7 of them new – cases of the virus in the state.

Authorities said they expect to see more cases, but emphasized that everyone can take actions to reduce the spread of the virus, according to Oregon Public Radio.

After an employee at a hospital in Danbury, Conn. tested positive, marking the first case in the state, health officials said that the first Connecticut resident to be confirmed positive with Covid-19 is from the town of Wilton, a town in Fairfield County not far from the NY State border. The patient, who is being treated at Danbury Hospital, is a Wilton resident reportedly between the ages of 40 and 50. Officials believe the patient came in contact with the coronavirus on a recent trip to California, the Hartford Courant reports.

Saudi Arabia has closed schools across the kingdom.

Meanwhile, in Japan, doctors have reported an unusual development. One patient who was hospitalized with the virus has developed meningitis, a swelling of the lining in the brain. It’s reportedly the first case where this has happened.

* * *

Update (1330ET): For the second day in a row, Italian health officials on Sunday have reported 1,000+ newly confirmed cases of the novel coronavirus. In addition, deaths have climbed 50% to 366 deaths, up from 233.

The Italian fatality rate has now hit 5%.

In France, the total number of confirmed cases has climbed to 1,126, with 19 deaths. Germany has reported 107 new cases of coronavirus, raising the total to 902, with 40 cases in Berlin.

In Israel, PM Benjamin Netanyahu is reportedly weighing a ban on all foreigners entering the country. A few hours ago, Israel closed the rest of its border with Egypt after the country reported the first coronavirus-linked death in Africa. The deceased is a German citizen.

* * *

Update (1130ET): After declaring a state of emergency on Saturday, Gov. Cuomo confirmed 16 more cases in the state on Sunday, raising the state total from 89 to 105.

Andrew Cuomo

@NYGovCuomo

UPDATE: There are 16 additional confirmed cases of in NYS, bringing total to 105.

Westchester: 82
NYC: 12
Nassau: 5
Rockland: 2
Saratoga: 2
Suffolk: 1
Ulster: 1

We’re testing aggressively & we are seeing the number of confirmed cases go up as expected.

As officials in Washington State try to figure out exactly how many residents of the Life Care Center of Kirkland have died from the virus, one Twitter user pointed out the number of patients who have died at the facility – not at a hospital – since the outbreak began.

Ben Hunt

@EpsilonTheory

Please read.

There have been 11 deaths at Kirkland Life Care Center since Feb. 19 that were not transferred to a hospital before dying. None of them were tested for the CV19 virus.

What is ?

This.

View image on Twitter

In India, officials have confirmed what’s believed to be the first Covid-19-related death. They’re awaiting a final confirmation.

Spain reports 96 new cases of coronavirus and 7 new deaths, raising total to 613 cases and 17 dead.

In Virginia, officials have found what they described as the state’s second presumptive case of coronavirus, bringing the total number of cases in the Washington DC area to seven.

Saudi Arabia has suspended travel to and from Qatif Province, a key eastern province and ordered businesses and government offices there closed after confirming four new cases of the novel coronavirus on Sunday, bringing the total number of infections to 11.

The Army has suspended travel to and from Italy and South Korea for all soldiers and family members because of the coronavirus outbreak until May 6. The order, which affects 4,500 soldiers and family members, comes after that sailor in Naples was confirmed infected.

According to the New York Times, the ‘Grand Princess’ is on its way to dock on Monday at the Port of Oakland, the vessel’s operator said, after initially being refused entry at the port in San Francisco on Thursday. Passengers on the ship who require “acute medical treatment and hospitalization” will disembark first and be taken to secure facilities in Cali. Some 21 crew and passengers (mostly crew) have been infected, and more are being tested.

Most of those under quarantine on the ship, a situation that one passenger described as “hellish”, will linger for at least a day as officials continue the screening process.

California’s Office of Emergency Services said that a joint state and federal effort will begin Monday to disembark passengers from the ship in the port of Oakland. Sick passengers will be taken to medical facilities in California, and those who don’t require immediate care will be housed in federal facilities “for testing and isolation,” according to CBS News.

California residents will be brought to facilities within the state, and non-residents will be taken to locations in other states, including a military base in Marietta, Georgia. OES said 1,000 passengers are California residents. In an interview on “Face the Nation” on Sunday, US Surgeon General Jerry Adams said the White House “is still working” on figuring out where the “disembarked” passengers will be held.

Reuters reports the Mayor of Daegu, the hardest hit city in South Korea that is under quarantine as officials fight the outbreak, says the outbreak might be slowing. He reportedly expressed cautious hope on Sunday that the numbers of new cases may be dropping, after the rate of increase slowed to its lowest in 10 days.

The Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported on Sunday 272 new coronavirus cases, for a total of 7,313 in the country. Two further deaths took the toll to 50, it added.

Joseph Kim@josungkim

Streets are constantly being disinfected in Daegu, the city hit hardest by the coronavirus in South Korea. The trucks have banners that read, “Stay Strong Daegu.”

Embedded video

The increase was smaller than the day before, though health officials have warned that these figures could change as new tests are processed.

* * *

The drastic new measures announced yesterday in Rome’s draft decree to contain Europe’s worst novel coronavirus outbreak have now been put into practice: Italians awakened on Sunday to conditions that haven’t been seen in the country since the partisans in Giulino di Mezzegra, a small village in the Italian north that is now under quarantine, executed Mussolini.

With the quarantine imposing strict rules governing who can and can’t leave the area, anyone living in Lombardy and 14 other central and northern provinces will need special permission to travel. Milan and Venice, two of the largest cities in the country, which is also Europe’s third-largest economy with a total population of roughly 60 million – are both affected.

Overall, some 16 million Italians will be impacted by the strict quarantines – roughly 25% of the Italian population.

The most salient details of the Italian quarantine are as follows: In the quarantine region, weddings and funerals have been suspended, as well as religious and cultural events. Cinemas, night clubs, gyms, swimming pools, museums and ski resorts have been closed. Restaurants and cafes in the quarantined zones can open between 06:00 and 18:00 but customers must sit at least 1m (3ft) apart. People have been told to stay at home as much as possible, the BBC reports.

Those who willingly decide to break the quarantine could face three months in jail.

Restrictions apply to all of the Lombardy region, which includes many of Italy’s largest cities and most economically important provinces. According to Turkey’s Anadolou News Agency, along with Lombardy, the quarantine includes the cities of Modena, Parma, Piacenza, Reggio Emilia, Rimini, Pesaro e Urbino, Alessandria, Asti, Novara, Verbano Cusio Ossola, Vercelli, Padova, Treviso and Venice.

The order impacts Lombardy, the region around Milan, as well as vast swathes of Piedmont, Veneto, Emilia Romagna and Marche. Venice is part of the affected zone, while Turin, home to the Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV headquarters, is outside, according to Bloomberg.

PM Giuseppe Conte said sports matches will be held without crowds, and that schools in all quarantined locations will be on break until April 3.

In a tweet retweeted by Conte, WHO Director-General Dr. Tedros congratulated the Italian government for imposing “extraordinary measures”, and specifically praised Italian President Sergio Mattarrella for his boldness in getting the draft decree adopted into law.

Of course, while these measures are undoubtedly bold, they’re coming rather late in the game. Italy has confirmed 233 deaths connected to the outbreak, most of them in Lombardy, but cases and deaths have been confirmed across the country now, including a US Navy serviceman in Naples. 5,061 cases have been confirmed across Italy.

FxMacro@fxmacro

Wow from Italian data 10% of cases admitted to ICU…

View image on Twitter

In the Vatican, which confirmed its first case the other day, Pope Francis delivered his first live-streamed Sunday prayer to avoid the usual crowds forming. The Pope said he was “close through prayer” with those suffering from the epidemic. The Pope is also just recovering from a relatively serious ‘indisposition’ that officials said was definitely not the coronavirus (the pontiff was reportedly tested).

Over in the US, Dr. Anthony Fauci, the head of NIAID and the CDC’s point man on the outbreak, delivered some appropriately severe comments in a statement to the press delivered early Sunday.

The celebrated epidemiologist warned the public that they should avoid public gatherings because the virus’s seemingly rapid spread within communities on the West Coast is “not encouraging.”

  • FAUCI SAYS SCOPE OF CORONAVIRUS OUTBREAK IN UNITED STATES ‘NOT ENCOURAGING’ BECAUSE OF SPREAD WITHIN COMMUNITIES
  • NIAID HEAD ANTHONY FAUCI SAYS U.S. NEEDS TO LOOK AT CANCELLING EVENTS WITH LARGE GATHERINGS OF PEOPLE IF COMMUNITY SPREAD OF CORONAVIRUS INCREASES.

The Washington Post reports, citing a tweet from Rep. Joaquin Castro (D-Texas), that the Grand Princess passengers are expected to be quarantined at the Lackland Air Force Base in San Antonio, where evacuees from the Diamond Princess and Wuhan have been quarantined.

Joaquin Castro

@JoaquinCastrotx

Many of us have expressed to the Trump Administration serious concerns with how the Administration has handled the quarantine and the treatment of infected patients. For example, we still do not have the testing kits we need to truly determine community spread. 2.

Joaquin Castro

@JoaquinCastrotx

I’m told that the Trump Administration has decided to quarantine some passengers from the Grand Princess cruise ship (those who are currently asymptotic) at Lackland AFB in San Antonio. Our city has already helped quarantine 230 people including treatment for 11 infected persons.

Meanwhile, hours after announcing the District’s first coronavirus case, the DC Department of Health said Sunday that it was investigating whether members of a Georgetown church were exposed to the deadly virus.

In Albany, Gov. Cuomo said that NY and NYC wanted to avoid the quarantines imposed in Italy and China, but he would shut down NYC schools if he really felt it necessary.

  • CUOMO: WANTS TO AVOID MASSIVE QUARANTIES USED IN CHINA, ITALY
  • CUOMO” `IF WE NEED TO CLOSE SCHOOLS, WE WILL CLOSE SCHOOLS’
  • CUOMO SAYS NO REASON NOW TO CLOSE DOWN MASS TRANSIT IN CITY
  • NEW YORK GOV ANDREW CUOMO COMMENTS ON FOX NEWS CHANNEL

JERRY DUNLEAVY@JerryDunleavy

NY Gov Andrew Cuomo just told Fox News “worse than the virus right now is the fear pandemic” & “the fear is more dangerous than the virus.”

This is a trope ppl repeat that sounds insightful — but is it true? Undue fear is dumb, yes, but the virus is killing people — is the fear?

In a tweet sent early Sunday, President Trump defended the US response to the virus, praised VP Mike Pence (but notably not HHS Secretary Azar, and insisted that the “Fake News” media was deliberately trying to make him look bad.

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

We have a perfectly coordinated and fine tuned plan at the White House for our attack on CoronaVirus. We moved VERY early to close borders to certain areas, which was a Godsend. V.P. is doing a great job. The Fake News Media is doing everything possible to make us look bad. Sad!

We can’t help but wonder: Does this “plan” involve mass Italy- and/or China-style quarantines?

Elsewhere, in the UK, health officials confirmed another batch of cases, bringing the national total between the four kingdoms to 273. Among them, a student at Oxford University, the first case at the school.

Norbert Elekes@NorbertElekes

Confirmed coronavirus cases, UK:

March 8: 273 people
March 5: 115 people
March 2: 39 people
February 28: 20 people
February 25: 12 people
February 22: 8 people

As we reported last night, South America recorded its first coronavirus death, a 64-year-old Argentinian man, meanwhile, in Australia, a man in his 80s died, marking the country’s third death from the virus.

In Malaysia, which has been one of the more successful countries at combating the outbreak, officials banned all cruise ships from landing (taking a page out of President Trump’s book).

Of course, even as President Trump said he would prefer to leave the passengers on the Grand Princess offshore indefinitely (he doesn’t need his ‘numbers’ to double, as he said the other day), the US doesn’t have that luxury considering most of them are American citizens.

The Netherlands reports 77 new cases of coronavirus and 2 new deaths, raising total to 265 cases and 3 dead. German Health Minister Jens Spahn advised all events with more than 1,000 participants to be cancelled.

Iran on Sunday reported 49 deaths and more than 700 new cases of the virus, according to health authorities. As the worst outbreak outside China intensifies, the regime has urged citizens to stay home and avoid travel between cities, while many of Iran’s neighbors have closed their borders to Iranian citizens.

According to WaPo, the new cases bring the official death toll in Iran to 194, with a total number of confirmed cases climbing to 6,566 infections.

The new cases bring the official death toll in Iran to 194, with a total of 6,566 infections, according to the Health Ministry.

The outbreak is one of the largest outside China, where it is believed the virus originated.

In New York, as the number of confirmed cases passes 100, an Uber driver living in the Queens neighborhood of Far Rockaway has reportedly been hospitalized with the virus. As one reporter noted.

Lauren Tara LaCapra

@LaurenLaCapra

Lmao my life in a tweet https://twitter.com/ron_decline/status/1236370163970256896 

Eric Winick@Ron_Decline

How the fuck did coronavirus get to Far Rockaway

You can barely get there on the subway

END

Very scary: new study states best case scenario is for a total of 15 million dead

(zerohedge)

Shocking New Study Concludes That “Best Case Scenario” For A Covid-19 Pandemic Is 15 Million Dead

Authored by Michael Snyder via The End of The American Dream blog,

Over the past week, the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 outside of China more than tripled once again.  Hopefully it is extremely unlikely that such a rapid growth rate will continue, because if it does, there will be more than a million confirmed cases outside of China just a month from now.  I don’t even want to imagine the level of fear that would cause, and needless to say that would be absolutely devastating for the entire global economy.  Of course if we do get to a million confirmed cases, there won’t be any way to keep it from spreading everywhere on the entire globe, and the ultimate death toll could be unimaginable.

According to the WHO, the current death rate for this outbreak is 3.4 percent, and many experts believe that it will continue to go higher.

That means that a whole lot of people will die if this virus cannot be contained somehow.

Researchers at a major university in Australia modeled seven different scenarios for how a COVID-19 pandemic might go, and in the “best-case scenario” the death toll was 15 million

New modeling from The Australian National University looks at seven scenarios of how the COVID-19 outbreak might affect the world’s wealth, ranging from low severity to high severity.

Four of the seven scenarios in the paper examine the impact of COVID-19 spreading outside China, ranging from low to high severity. A seventh scenario examines a global impact in which a mild pandemic occurs each year indefinitely.

But even in the low-severity model – or best-case scenario of the seven, which the paper acknowledged were not definitive – ANU researchers estimate a global GDP loss of $2.4 trillion, with an estimated death toll of 15 million.

A pandemic that kills 15 million people would change everything.

I sincerely hope that we don’t see anything like that, but other experts are coming up with similar projections.  A Harvard epidemiologist is warning that 40 to 70 percent of the entire global population will eventually catch this virus, and Mike Adams is projecting that more than two million Americans could be dead by July 4th “if domestic travel is not aggressively halted”

Today I finished tweaking the first draft of a pandemic projection model that simulates the spread of the coronavirus in the United States. The assumptions of the model are explained here, and you will find they are extremely conservative (using R0 value of just 1.82, for example).

The model’s predictions are nothing short of apocalyptic if the virus is allowed to spread without restraint across the United States. According to the model, there will be 2.16 million dead Americans by July 4th if domestic travel is not aggressively halted very soon (see the full projections below). This is not a prediction, since I believe that state governments and the federal government will intervene long before July 4th to declare, essentially, medical martial law.

Let us pray that nothing like this ever happens.

But if we all stick our heads in the sand and pretend that this virus isn’t a major threat, that will just make matters a lot worse.

At this point, the truth is that we don’t really know the true extent of the outbreak in the United States because authorities are just now starting to ramp up testing.  Vice-President Pence had hoped to get a million testing kits to local communities this week, but that is simply not going to happen

Mike Pence admitted Thursday that the administration will not be able to follow meet its promise to deliver one million coronavirus testing kits by the end of the week.

‘We don’t have enough tests today to meet what we anticipate the demand going forward,’ Pence said during a visit to a 3M Company plant in Minnesota Thursday afternoon.

Meanwhile, things are really starting to get weird out there.

The number of confirmed cases in the Seattle area has surged to 70, and authorities have transformed an aging EconoLodge into a “quarantine village”

The EconoLodge in Kent, which is in the heart of the Seattle–Tacoma metropolitan area, will be America’s first Covid-19 quarantine village. As cases and deaths surge in Washington state, officials aren’t constructing modular hospitals in two weeks like China did last month, but rather buying existing commercial properties, such as motels, and stuffing infected people within.

Markovich said another “Covid-19 quarantine village using modular units now underway at 1100 block of 128th St. in North Seattle. There has been no public announcement about this so far.”

I suppose that such facilities will be able to house a few hundred people, but what are local officials going to do if hundreds of thousands of people get the virus?

Once this virus begins to spread in a community, the number of cases can escalate at a staggering rate.  If you have any doubt about this, just look at what is happening in France.

We will probably see that sort of a growth rate in certain communities here in the U.S., and that is truly chilling.

In Iran, the number of confirmed cases has now crossed the 3,500 mark, and it is being reported that “dozens of bodies” are piling up in Iranian morgues…

Dozens of bodies sheathed in black bags line the floor of an Iranian morgue, while workers in protective suits and masks busily walk among them.

It’s unclear which, if any, of the people whose bodies lie in the morgue were infected with the coronavirus gripping the country, in this footage from inside Qom’s Behesht-e Masoumeh morgue.

The official death toll in Iran is only 107 at this point, but many believe that the true number is much, much higher.

As usual, the Iranians are blaming their problems on the United States and Israel.  In fact, one Iranian general is publicly claiming that this virus is “a manmade bioweapon” that was purposely deployed against China and Iran…

An Iranian military leader has suggested that the coronavirus is not a naturally occurring disease, and that it is a manmade bioweapon cultivated and released against China and Iran by a ‘hostile state’.

Brigadier General Gholam Reza Jalali, an Iranian officer in charge of the country’s Civil Defense Organization claimed Tuesday that “A study of the consequences of the virus in terms of tolls or the extent of the epidemic and the type of media propaganda over this issue that is aimed at increasing fear and panic among people strengthens the speculations that a biological attack has been launched against China and Iran with economic goals.”

Of course the truth is that this virus has created a major crisis for the entire planet.

In the UK, there is so much anxiety about this virus that British supermarkets are actually preparing for “food riots”

British supermarkets are prepared for food riots if panic buying becomes widespread in the worst-cast scenario of a coronavirus pandemic, a retail expert has said.

Former Tesco supply chain director Bruno Monteyne said a major outbreak of the virus would result in ‘panic buying, empty shelves and food riots’ but that at this stage retailers would revert to ‘feed the nation’ status to avoid anyone going hungry.

And all over the western world, fans are already being banned from major sporting events in order to help prevent the spread of this disease.

If this outbreak continues to rapidly escalate, the way that we live our lives is going to be dramatically altered.  So let us pray for mercy, because we definitely need it.

Sadly, many Americans are not getting prepared for a potential pandemic because they have been told over and over again that this virus is not any more dangerous than the flu.

That is definitely not true.  As I explained the other day, the flu usually has a death rate of about 0.1 percent each year, and this virus currently has a death rate of 3.4 percent

“Globally, about 3.4 percent of reported COVID-19 cases have died,” said WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus at a press briefing Tuesday. The rate describes the proportion of deaths among confirmed cases. And it wasgreater than the previous coronavirus CFR estimate (2 percent in China), far higher than the seasonal flu (which kills 0.1 percent of those infected on average), and even worse than the Spanish flu pandemic (which killed 2 to 3 percent of those infected).

Last century, the Spanish Flu pandemic killed somewhere between 50 million and 100 million people, and this virus currently has an even higher death rate.

Are you starting to understand?

This outbreak has the potential to kill millions upon millions of people, and anyone that is not taking it seriously is not being very wise at all.

end

SWEDEN

Riksbank Deputy Governor Tests Positive For Coronavirus

Iranian lawmakers and senior regime officials, “Corona Ted” and President of Portugal aren’t the only international VIPs to catch – or be exposed to – the coronavirus.

Sveriges Riksbank Deputy Governor and Stockholm University economics professor Martin Floden has tested positive for the novel coronavirus, the virus that causes the illness known as Covid-19, according to Omni Ekonomi.

Martin Floden

Sweden has confirmed 203 cases of the virus since January, though no deaths have been recorded. The country’s public health officials have been widely praised for tracking down vacationers who visited Italy over the recent holiday only to be infected with the virus.

Bloomberg reported that Floden tested positive for the virus on Friday. He is feeling well and is working from home, according to the Riksbank’s spokesman Tomas Lundberg.

Here’s more from BBG:

In addition to the recommendations of the country’s health agency, “the Riksbank has taken further precautionary measures regarding its employees,” the central bank said in its statement. For example, employees who have traveled to the worst-affected areas “must work from home during the two weeks immediately following their return home.”

The news comes amid increasing speculation about what measures the central bank may need to take to tackle the impact of the virus. Danske Bank analysts said last week they expect the Riksbank to cut its repo rate by 25 basis points in April, as Swedish workers risk a poor outcome in central wage negotiations amid the fallout from the virus. That easing call was echoed by Capital Economics on Monday.

The Riksbank ended half a decade of negative rates in December, despite a slowdown in the Swedish economy. Since then, some policy makers have signaled they’d rather expand an existing bond-purchase program than once again resort to subzero rates, should there be a need for further stimulus.

Floden is one of 248 people in Sweden to have been diagnosed with the virus, as of Monday. The central bank’s next monetary policy meeting is set for April 27.

Hopefully, the rest of the central bank’s leadership will remain healthy – for who else will save the Swedish economy if not for its heroic central bankers delivering helicopter money for all.

END

Four Scenarios Of How Covid-19 Could Wreak Havoc On Global Economy

The grave risks and dangers of a globalized world of interlocking supply chains over the last four decades is starting to be realized as the crash of China’s economy could cost the world $2.7 trillion.

Bloomberg Economics says the shutdown of China’s economy could have severe implications for the rest of the world and lays out four scenarios of what could happen next:

The first scenario is a plunge in China’s economy, with a modest spillover of economic damage in Asia Pacific countries, Europe, and the US. China is a source of demand for multinationals based across the world, and if China can reopen its economy as soon as possible, contagion can be minimized. The scenario says a “severe shock in the first half would be followed by recovery in the second. For the world as a whole, and major economies like the US, the impact would then be hard to see in the full-year GDP data.”

The second scenario is the assumption that the Covid-19 outbreak worsens, and China’s economy remains disrupted with the hopes of a V-shape recovery transforming into a U-Shape dip, which would result in localized disruptions for Asia Pacific countries and Europe.

“Even when factories are back to work, it’s not like all the problems are solved,” said Li Lei, the Made-in-China.com manager. “Many factories don’t have enough inventory… the supply chain obstacles cap production capacity.”

The scenario assumes Asia Pacific countries like South Korea and Japan, and European countries like Germany, France, and Italy, would experience supply chain disruptions because of the lack of parts sourced from China due to factory shutdowns. Bloomberg said in their calculations, this scenario would result in global growth at 2.3%, down from 3.1% pre-virus forecast.

The third scenario is a widespread breakout of the virus in South Korea, Italy, Japan, France, and Germany.

“In scenario three, we layer on a more severe shock to South Korea, Italy, Japan, France, and Germany. And we add a smaller shock to all the countries that had reported any cases as of the start of March. That includes the U.S., India, the U.K., Canada, and Brazil—meaning that all of the world’s 10 biggest economies suffer a slowdown as they fight to contain the domestic spread of the virus,” Bloomberg said.

The scenario says global growth would slide to 1.2% for the year, Europe and Japan would plunge into a recession, and the US economy would expand by .5% with a reversal in the unemployment level by the end of the year.

The fourth scenario is a “global pandemic.” Bloomberg says in this model virus cases and deaths soar across all major economies and causes one of the most massive economic shocks the world has seen since the 2008 financial crisis. In this event, global growth plunges to zero; the US, Europe, and Japan dive into recession, which would trigger a massive $2.7 trillion hit in global output.

Last month Michael Every of Rabobank laid out his four scenarios for the virus’ economic and market impact: “The Bad,” “The Worse,” “The Ugly,” and “The Unthinkable.”

In an updated post on March 4, Every said, “It’s Getting ‘The Ugly,'” as this scenario foresees “the US, UK, and Europe were infected too. Naturally, this implied a deep global recession.”

And it appears the world is just one step away from “The Unthinkable,” which Every describes this scenario as a global pandemic that has only been seen in Hollywood movies.

END

7. OIL ISSUES

Rabobank: “Oil Vey”

Submitted by Michael Every of Rabobank

What do you say about a Friday where nobody but Larry Kudlow Donald Trump cares a jot about the strong US labour market; where equities tumble again; where the US credit markets start to show stress; and where the 30-year US Treasury declines nearly 30bp in one day? What do you say when OPEC and Russia can’t agree on oil price cuts to match collapsing global demand?

What do you say about a Saturday where Saudi Arabia decides to turn the taps on full and increase output massively, and to offer discounts of USD8-10 per barrel to key customers? What do you say when oil prices collapsed nearly 10% on Friday and then a further 31% this morning in the first few minutes of Asian trading, and Brent was at USD35.76 at time of writing? That’s the biggest drop since 1991! What do you say when even US shale, and all the high-yield credit attached, is going to be under huge stress – to say nothing of the Saudi and Russian budgets, and oil-related currency pegs?

What do you say when the 10-year US Treasury has fallen another 24bp today and is right now as type below 0.50% energy and commodity prices collapse? What do you say when the Aussie stock market has fallen 6.4%, the Hang Seng is -3.5%, the Nikkei -5.8%, even though Japan is a huge energy importer, and S&P futures are -4.5% again, close to limit down? What do you say when EUR/USD is over 1.14, and USD/JP at 102.5?

“Oil vey”

This is without even mentioning that Italy has locked down 25% of its population properly this time – though apparently the orders are being ignored, and the decree was leaked early, allowing many to flee the virus zone before the cordon sanitaire came down.

Without mentioning that Israel, very small but ahead of the virus policy curve in some respects, is about to insist all arrivals must go into 14-day quarantine, which will effectively close off all incoming flights.

Without mentioning that Chinese exports for January and February were -17.2% y/y, taking its trade into a deficit: with nobody to export to as things look like they may stand, might we be seeing more such deficits even if China can genuinely get production up, rather than just leaving the lights on, and without a new virus outbreak?

Without mentioning that the shoe has now finally dropped and major events like SXSW in the US have shown that, yes, this virus matters too and it is not just $X$W: it has been cancelled at short notice.

Anecdotally, I am seeing/hearing three groups around me in how people react to all this:

  1. The ones fighting over toilet rolls in supermarket aisles, which shows that in times of crisis people will still stick with fiat money given they obviously see actual toilet paper as a form of currency.
  2. The ones who keep saying this is all an over-reaction, largely because they want to differentiate themselves from those who are fighting over toilet paper; but also because they are clinging to comforting facts like “This is just flu”, “More people due from slipping in the shower”, and the classic “98% of people will be OK”. Generally that means THEY will be OK, as they aren’t in the high-risk health or age bracket: yet there are also lots of elderly folks I know who are also happily saying “Keep Calm and Carry On” while making no changes to their lifestyle at all. In markets, this group tends to work in the kind of analyst space where you are always “bullish 12 months out” – the kind of people Keynes was laughing at when he made his “In the long run, we are all dead” quip: today it’s been inverted to “In the long run, we are all alive”.
  3. The ones who aren’t buying toilet paper but who aren’t buying that this is just a flu that will go away when the sun comes out either. Those who can see this virus is extremely easy to spread and very dangerous to some demographics – and that if they will be OK personally, if everyone gets sick at once (40-80% of the population), and 20% of those sick need to be in hospital (8-16% of the population), healthcare systems will be overloaded, ensuring even moderately ill people can’t get normal treatment and can hence die: so we can indeed end up with mass casualties of at least 2% of that 40-80% in short order, Wuhan- and Italy-style, albeit centred on the elderly and sick. (Which tend to be called ‘family members’ for most people.) The ones who also see that aggressive lockdowns/quarantines, along with mass testing, have managed to reduce the R0 (or infectiousness) of the virus from 2-3 to around 0.3 where they have been implemented, and hence recognise that is the route that governments will all eventually go down, even if the economic hit will be massive.

Now briefly back to oil. The bull argument du jour from our group 2 above is that lower energy prices will juice the global economy. Perhaps – unless you are an energy exporter. They will also ensure central banks are confronted by deflation, not inflation; and, as already noted, by severe credit stress in the energy sector.

Yet will cheaper petrol/gas really encourage the group 1 people bunkered down at home to buy more of anything except toilet paper? Moreover, once this virus has passed which, yes, one day it will, even if it is perhaps not truly over until a vaccine is available in 2021 or 2022, then energy demand will go back up again and so will oil prices. In other words, cheap energy is a coincident and not a leading indicator for once, and it is not going to juice the economy right now any more than ultra-low (and about to get ultra-lower) interest rates are.

But what about fiscal stimulus, I hear group 2 people say? Well even that won’t do much beyond damage control. Don’t believe me again? Look at the share of household spending and business investment in GDP vs. public investment–it’s easy to do–and imagine how much the latter needs to rise to compensate for a coming collapse in the first two categories. An extension of paid sick leave, as proposed in the US, is better than nothing but also nothing much.

Like I already said, “Oil vey.”

END

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings MONDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1432 up .01436 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS//CORONAVIRUS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /ALL RED

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 102.61 DOWN 2.632 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.3072  UP   0.0025  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/

 

USA/CAN 1.3059 UP .0005 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  MONDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE BY 144 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.1432 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 84.27 POINTS OR 2.78% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 968.47 POINTS OR 3.70%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 7,42%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 968.47 POINTS OR 3.70%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 84.27 POINTS OR 2.78%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN. 2.42% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 1185.71  POINTS OR 5.71%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1671.50

silver:$16.90-

Early MONDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 0.51% !!! DOWN 25 IN POINTS from FRIDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 0.97 DOWN 31  IN BASIS POINTS from FRIDAY night.

USA dollar index early MONDAY morning: 95.12 DOWN 80 CENT(S) from  FRIDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers MONDAY MORNING

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And now your closing MONDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.37% UP 7 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.18%  DOWN 3   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.26%//UP 5 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:1,42 UP 35 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 168 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.86% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 2,28% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR MONDAY

Closing currency crosses for MONDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1447  UP     .01675 or 168 basis points

USA/Japan: 102.38 DOWN 2.906 OR YEN UP 291  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3105 UP .0060 POUND UP 60  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 269 basis points to 1.3672

 

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The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 6.9503    ON SHORE  (DOWN)..

 

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.9501  (YUAN DOWN)..

 

TURKISH LIRA:  6.1581 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.18%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 20 IN basis points from THURSDAY at 0.57 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 1.03 DOWN 26 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 95.06 DOWN 89  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for FRIDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 266.09  7.39%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 916.75 POINTS OR 7.94%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 431.20 POINTS 8.39%

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 666.90 POINTS or 7.96%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 2323.98 POINTS OR 11.17%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 30.46 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 75.03 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE FALLS:    75.03  THE CROSS HIGHER BY 6.45 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE LOWER BY 645 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.83 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  30.98//

 

 

BRENT :  34.46

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 0.57.. down 20 basis pts…

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 21.03..down 26 basis pts..

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.1497 ( UP 168   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:102.38 DOWN 2.906 (YEN UP 2,906 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 95.06 DOWN 89 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.3105 UP 60  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 6,1581

 

 

the Russian rouble 75.03   down 6.45 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( down 645 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3672 down 269 BASIS pts

 

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.83%

 

The Dow closed DOWN 2013,76 POINTS OR 7.79%

 

NASDAQ closed DOWN 624.94 POINTS OR 7.29%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  54.17 CLOSED UP 12.23

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 0.896%//libor dropping like a stone

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

Black Monday… Part Two

At its lows today, this was the market’s biggest down day since 1987 (by the close the biggest since Oct 2018)!

Source: Bloomberg

In a reflection of the total loss of faith policymakers among BTFDers, @Sentimentrader notes that:

This is the only day in the history of S&P 500 futures that they gapped down more than -5% and didn’t close above the open.

Did the 11-year-long, almost unstoppable bull run that started on March 9, 2009, just end on March 9, 2020?

Source: Bloomberg

Here’s another stat for the record books. Total U.S. Trading volume, on a 10-day moving average basis, is now higher than during the meltdown in 2008. Volume is another whopper today, over 17 billion shares.

Source: Bloomberg

Thanks to the market perceiving President Trump’s response as remaining one of “denial” of the scale of the problem, and concerns that any fiscal stimulus will be underwhelming, things were already anxious as markets opened Sunday night. But the situation was worsened considerably as both Russia and Saudi Arabia stood poised to flood the market with cheap crude (supply) in an all-out price war just as the coronavirus is spurring the first contraction in demand since 2009.

“The situation we are witnessing today seems to have no equal in oil market history,” said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol.

“A combination of a massive supply overhang and a significant demand shock at the same time.”

Oil futures fell by about one-third in New York and London on Monday, the biggest drop since the Gulf War in 1991, before pulling back to a 20% decline.

Source: Bloomberg

Crashing below $30!

Crashing US HY Energy sector bond prices…

Source: Bloomberg

US markets were a bloodbath from Sunday night future open (ETFs showed things were uglier than the 5% limit down in futs) and stocks were unable to show any real resilience…

Early selling pressure today – judged by NYSE’s advance-decline line – was at its strongest since the DotCom collapse

Source: Bloomberg

Extreme Fear has reached its extreme-est level…

Source: CNN

The shrill cry from the asset-gatherers and commission-rakers – “TURN THE BUY-THE-DIP MACHINES BACK ON!!!!”

Chinese stocks – somewhat uncharacteristically – tumbled overnight… finally…

Source: Bloomberg

European stock markets just suffered their worst decline since Lehman… Oct 2008

Europe is now down over 22.5% – a bear market – from highs just 3 weeks ago…

Source: Bloomberg

The selling was absolutely across the board…

Source: Bloomberg

European banks crashed to their lowest since March 2009… but judging by EU bank credit, there’s more to come…

Source: Bloomberg

And European credit is crashing…

Source: Bloomberg

Gilt yields fall below 0% in two- and five-year segments, with BOE’s buyback seeing the institution buy at a sub-zero rate

Source: Bloomberg

But, Italian yields surged, rising 30bps in 2-year to 10-year segments.

Source: Bloomberg

And US markets were an ever bigger bloodbath… The Dow dropped 2019 points!!! Worst day for stocks since Oct 2008

And while China began to drop, US and Europe lead the way since the start of the Covid-19 headlines…

Source: Bloomberg

Russell 2000 entered a bear market today (down 23.5% from January highs), dropping most since Lehman…

Source: Bloomberg

Dow Transports have erased all of the post-Trump election gains…

Source: Bloomberg

S&P broke key technical support…

Source: Bloomberg

All the major US equity indices have broken below their 200DMA…

US Banks were crushed today…

Source: Bloomberg

The big banks are down a stunning 30-40% in the last 3 weeks…

Source: Bloomberg

The Energy sector suffered its biggest loss ever, crashing over 18% on the day…

Source: Bloomberg

Virus-related sectors have been destroyed…

Source: Bloomberg

FANG stocks were slammed most since Oct 2018 (and closed ugly)…

VIX exploded above 60 today – the highest since Lehman…

Source: Bloomberg

And VIX’s term structure is the most inverted since Lehman…

Source: Bloomberg

Credit markets have completely collapsed (but are slightly under-pricing relative to VIX) – today was biggest jump in IG credit since Lehman

Source: Bloomberg

Today’s crash in Treasury yields was the biggest since Nov 2008

Source: Bloomberg

At its trough in yields overnight – it was the biggest yield drop in history…

Source: Bloomberg

10Y yields hit their lowest ever at 31.3bps…

Source: Bloomberg

The entire Treasury curve is now below Fed Funds…

Source: Bloomberg

The Yield curve crashed into inversion as yields plunged overnight but stabilized later – still flatter on the day…

Source: Bloomberg

 

Amid all this carnage, the dollar ended only modestly lower…

 

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos were crushed along with almost everything else…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold managed very modest gains, copper and silver were down over 2% as crude collapsed…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold/Oil spiked to its second highest level ever today…

Source: Bloomberg

Once again oil’s drop today coincided with dollar weakness and in fact, as Bloomberg details, the relationship between oil and dollar has turned on its head: The lower the crude prices are, the weaker the U.S. currency.

Source: Bloomberg

Since the turn of the century, the two have typically had a negative correlation. A strong dollar has meant weak oil prices and vice versa, partly because oil is priced in dollars. Granted, the relationship hasn’t been stable in recent years, but a positive correlation has been rare.

There could be several explanations:

  • For one, lower oil prices add deflation pressure and lower the bar for the Fed to ease monetary policies.
  • Second, with the U.S. a net energy exporter now, weaker oil prices reduce investment in the shale industry.
  • Third, oil prices signal weak global demand, causing unwinding of carry-trade positions funded by the euro.

And finally, we wonder – has Ray Dalio lost his touch?

Source: Bloomberg

And don’t forget it’s also the anniversary of 1933’s Banking Crisis Holiday

h/t @Not_Jim_Cramer

And in case you’re wondering. The 2K analog is holding very well… implying we should get a decent bounce here before the finally catastrophic collapse…

Source: Bloomberg

The market is now demanding 3 rate-cuts at or before the next Fed meeting (on March 18th)…

 

Source: Bloomberg

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/FRIDAY NIGHT/USA

Friday afternoon just before closing time, we probably had a major hedge fund blow up

(zerohedge)

“Someone Big Was Utterly Blown The F**k Out”: Here’s The Reason Behind Today’s Unprecedented VIX Move

There was a bizarre moment this afternoon, when in the 40 minutes heading into the final hour of trading, the VIX kept rising and rising, preventing the S&P from doing its sworn duty of spiking higher into the weekend. And then, just after 310pm ET (or 1210 PT), the VIX collapsed, plunging by as much as 14 vols from 54.39 – the highest print since Lehman – to 40.84, the low for the day, and unleashing another unprecedented stock buying cascade, which almost sent the Dow green.

What happened?

As the following chat session between three individuals, which includes a former CME index option trader (X), all of whom wish to remain anonymous lays out, what happened is that the VIX ramped as a major Chicago market maker was caught in the infamous gamma short squeeze, which forced them to keep buying the VIX as the VIX soared, in the process ending the VIX even higher, only to get margin called out of their position by their clearing firm, puking their entire position while liquidating anything they could, and unleashing the VIX selling avalanche and the 700 Dow point rally.

Regular readers will recognize this pattern: it is what happened, only not with the VIX by ES, back in February 2017, when the Catalyst Hedged Futures Strategy Fund pushed the entire market higher when it, itself, was caught in a similar gamma trap (and which this January was finally busted for fraud).

Below the the full chat laying out what happened:

X: Someone got carried out of the pit in spx options 15 minutes ago

X: Utterly blown the fuck out

X: Their clearing firm literally liquidated some big market maker in Chicago hahahaha

X: Go to Ceres today

Y: Omfg

X: Someone big literally doesn’t exist anymore

X: WE’RE RUINED MORTIMER

X: It caused a huge dislocation in the vix

X: You could see them blow out 😂

X: God i feel so happy now

X: (Ssssiiiippp)

Z: Someone hacked into this Boise publication and is posting redpills on their Twitter

Z: [link to Boise Weekly hacked twitter account]

Z: Is one of those degenerate leftist weekly publications so common in urban areas

X: Lol nice

Z: What’s going on with the spx?

X: Bro

X: What a lollercoaster

X: Im in cloud 9 right now

X: My old he lush trading firm blew out vs vix 32

X: Now someone else the same size did it vs 48 haha

X: Old hellish*

X: Consolidated trading blew out vs vix 32 last week

X: Verifiable true

Z: Do you know the other firm?

X: I wanna say they were the 4th largest market maker in chicago

X: Asking my friend. Trying to find out

[pictures of VIX vs /ES[H2O] on TOS]

X: That dramatic rise in the vix is inconsistent with the speed and depth of the fall in sp500

X: Someone literally got liquidated around 3 eastern

X: [Z] tell them about consolidated trading

X: “Consolidated Trading was well known across Chicago as degenerate risk takers who would always maintain a short vol/gamma position regardless of market conditions. Finally bit them in the ass last week and they blew out even after the market gave them tons of opportunity to get flat or long vs vix 23”

X: [Screenshot of another chat he’s in]:

Q: Vix 52

Q: 14 day vol is 60 lol

Q: Bro

Q: Someone big in Chicago just got carried out of the pit

Q: Their clearing firm mega puking them out CAUSED A SEVEN POINT POP IN THE VIX

Q: Reversed in minutes

Q: MORTIMER WE’RE RUINED lmfao]

And that’s what’s behind 700 point ramp today, confirming that the only movie one needs to watch to understand how the market really works is Trading Places.

END

SUNDAY NIGHT:

Deadly:  the Japanese yen rises/euro will rise as hedge funds unwind their losers. Markets are expected to drop considerably.

(zerohedge)

Panic: USDJPY Crashes, Commodity Pairs Plunge, Oil Said To Open Down $10

For a few days at the end of February, traders were stumped when instead of surging – as it normally does during risk off days – the Japanese Yen tumbled alongside stocks, sending the USDJPY to the highest level in nearly a year even as markets were rocked by early coronavirus fears.

In retrospect, that initial reaction (and countless “hot takes” on the topic) turned out to be dead wrong, because since then, the USDJPY has cratered, and is now down nearly 8 big figures in the span of two weeks, with the JPY once again a full-blown “risk off” currency.

And while we wait for equity futures to resume trading at 6pm, the USDJPY is down 1.1% to 104.20, continuing its recent freefall, hinting that between soaring coronavirus fears and the anticipated imminent crash in oil, futures will be a bloodbath… again.

It’s not just everyone’s favorite carry currency that is exploding higher amid a global risk off in early Sunday trading: the carry pairs – Loonie, Aussie and Norwegian Krone are all getting carted out feet first:

  • USD/CAD RISES 0.5% IN EARLY TRADE AFTER ARAMCO OIL DECISION
  • USD/NOK RISES 0.7% IN EARLY TRADE AFTER ARAMCO OIL DECISION
  • AUD/USD DROPS AS MUCH AS 0.5% IN EARLY TRADING

And visually:

Finally, with the Euro having become a carbon copy of the Yen, some now speculate that the common currency is traders’ next favorite carry currency thanks to the ECB’s record low negative rates, and sure enough, all those carry traders who had the EUR as one of the FX pair legs, are scrambling to get out of their positions, sending the EURUSD soaring in recent days, and another 0.7% on Sunday, reaching its highest level since July.

Incidentally the topic of the Euro as a carry currency was touched upon in Albert Edwards’ latest note, and he had some very ominous words of warning if indeed that is the case (which it clearly is):

One of the key lessons from the 2008 GFC was to avoid a strong currency. Japan?s economy suffered a terrible slump, falling some 9% in just a year  almost meeting the semi-official definition of a depression. This was around twice that of the drop in GDP in the US and Europe.

The main reason why this slump in the Japanese economy occurred in 2008 was that a seeming successful low interest rate policy blew up in the Japanese policymakers faces. That same fate may just be about to befall the ECB and the eurozone. In the run-up to the GFC, the BoJ interest rate remained close to rock bottom while rates were raised in Europe and the US. Japanese rates were, by some way, the lowest in the G7 and so the yen weakened firstly due to these wide interest rate differentials, and secondly as a weakening yen encouraged carry trades  where investors borrow in a low interest rate, depreciating currency (yen) and invest the money in a higher yielding or rising assets abroad. This created a virtuous loop where the yen declined (dollar rallied) through 2005-mid 2007 (see chart below). Then as the asset prices collapsed, investors were forced to close out the carry positions, driving the yen sharply higher as the currency part of the trade was unwound. 

The same issue might be set to overwhelm the ECB, which has also been successful in driving down the euro against the dollar by lowering interest rates to a negative 0.5% and being more aggressive with its QE. There is evidence emerging from the BIS that the euro may have become a funding currency for carry trades due to its rock-bottom interest rates, just like the yen did in 2005. To the extent this has occurred it has likely underpinned dollar  strength as money has flowed into what is a higher yield, ?safe? investment home.

A surge in the euro might occur irrespective of any additional ECB easing deeper into negative territory. Another 50bp ECB cut is irrelevant compared to the potential losses on assets in a market meltdown. Further ECB rate cuts may occur despite the obvious damage this is doing to the eurozone banking sector. In my view trying to stop a surging euro will be a far higher priority to the ECB than the chronic damage to eurozone bank margins from negative rates.

The priority will be to avoid a strong euro causing a slump in the already fragile eurozone economy and a move into outright deflation. Another deep recession would almost certainly trigger another euro crisis.

And the punchline:

If a carry trade unwind does cause the euro to surge uncontrollably against the dollar towards the $1.2-1.3 zone, the impact on the fragile eurozone economy could be devastating. For despite the euro?s weakness against the dollar, other countries have also been pursuing weak currency polices. As a result, the euro effective exchange rate (ie measuring the euro against a basket of currencies) is much stronger than the headline euro/$ exchange rate suggests. A surge in the euro from current levels as the carry trade unwinds could crush the eurozone economy. Indeed it could threaten the euro’s very existence. 

Ooops.

And since we know that the question on everyone’s lips is where does oil open (we laid out some thoughts yesterday), according to CNBC’s Scott Wapner, who cites trader Mark Fisher, oil is reportedly indicated to open below $32 a barrel, nearly $10 below its Friday closing price (although it is unclear what “indications” Fisher is looking at so take this with a big grain of salt).

Finally, for those who just can’t wait for equity futs to reopen in a few hours, here is where one can expect the Dow Jones futures to trade, according to the spreadbettors at IG.

end

and then this: Sunday markets that were open:

 

Market Bloodbath: Middle East Stocks Crater; Kuwait Halted; Aramco Below IPO; Dow Indicated Down 500

In case a global viral pandemic wasn’t enough of a concern, on Saturday Saudi Arabia launched a global oil price war, when Aramco announced unprecedented discounts on Brent shipments to clients around the globe, with Bloomberg later reporting that the OPEC nation was set to flood the world with excess production potentially to as much as a record 12 million barrels a day, which in a world where oil demand has cratered due to China’s economy remaining paralyzed due to the pandemic, assures that when Brent reopens for trading tonight it will be in freefall, tumbling into the $30s if not lower as OPEC is no more and every producer now scrambles to undercut everyone else in price, unleashing another deflationary massacre and forcing central banks to pull another market-supporting rabbit out of their hat.

Until they do, however, traders in the Middle East where markets have already reopened, decided to sell first and ask questions later, as stocks cratered ahead of the first official oil price prints, which will come after what was already the biggest one day drop in Brent since 2008 on Friday after news that the OPEC+ alliance had fractured. And now oil will have a Saudi oil price war to deal with, prompting some to speculate that the price oil could drop into the high teens, if not lower.

Kuwait led the sell-off, halting trading of the biggest and most liquid shares after its index tumbled 10% and bringing its losses this year to 18%, while every stock index in the region plunged. Dubai’s DFM General Index and Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul All Share Index clocked up the sharpest drop for a session since the 2008 financial crisis.

And, as we noted last night when we pointed out that Aramco’s IPO top-ticked the market in both Brent and global investor stupidity…

… oil giant Saudi Aramco fell below its IPO price for the first time, plunging down over 9% to a record low of SAR30.00.

Elsewhere, Dubai’s DFM General Index and Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul All Share Index all posted the biggest one-day drops since the 2008 financial crisis.

Bank shares were hit the hardest: in Riyadh, Al Rajhi Bank finished 7% lower. Emirates NBD PJSC, Dubai’s biggest bank, fell 9.6%, while First Abu Dhabi Bank PJSC and National Bank of Kuwait SAKP ended 6.7% and 9.3% lower, respectively.

Some more details from Bloomberg:

  • Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul index was back to the level of November 2017, before its inclusion in the emerging-market gauges compiled by MSCI Inc. and FTSE Russell.
  • Dubai’s DFM General Index finished 7.9% lower, with real estate bellwether Emaar Properties down 9.7% to the lowest since 2012.
  • Kuwait’s main index extended losses this year to 18%, compared with a 32% gain in 2019 that was the best performance in the region.
  • Indexes in Saudi Arabia, Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Egypt and Israel all traded below a technical threshold that indicated they were oversold.

Commenting on the bloodbath, Mohammed Ali Yasin, chief strategy officer at Al Dhabi Capital said that mideast markets “are finding it difficult to cope with all these variables that have been happening over the past 10 days. That’s why we see this panic-selling across the board taking certain markets to lows not seen even during the financial crisis.”

“The sharp decline in oil prices is becoming a bigger concern for regional investors amid adverse global headlines,” said Iyad Abu Hweij, managing partner at Allied Investment Partners in Dubai, who expects “heightened anxiety” to persist in markets.

Meanwhile, ahead of Monday’s US open, UK spreadbetting service IG was indicating Dow futures to be down more than 500 points, as last week’s violent selloff was set to return with a bang and as traders hoped that the Fed would make another emergency announcement later on Sunday to help ease the pain.

end

THEN EARLY MONDAY MORNING

Panic Purgatory: Oil Crashes To $27; S&P Futures Locked Limit Down, Treasuries Soar Limit Up Amid Historic Liquidation

The Sunday futures fiasco started off on the back foot, with virtually every risk asset that is not nailed down puking with a force unseen since the financial crisis. It has only gotten worse since.

While futures initially tumbled as much as 4.7% in the first minutes of trading, they have not only failed to find any BTFD support, but have been locked at the -5% limit down for nearly two hours with a brief interlude in which they rebounded modestly only to find another wave of buyers. As a reminder, even as thousands of offers build up, they can’t cross due to the limit down state of the Emini.

Amid this unprecedented crash in equities, 10Y Treasury futures have soared, and also for the first time in over a decade, were locked limit up for about an hour, at 139-29+, prompting a brief trading interruption…

… which however failed to do much, with the entire US Treasury curve – including the 30Y – trading not only below the effective fed funds rate, but also below 1.00% for the first time ever…

… as a sudden, furious flash crash just before 10pm ET in both the Australian dollar…

… and the USDJPY…

… most likely the result of a macro fund being margined out and liquidating carry positions, unleashed another bout of risk-off liquidation across asset classes.

And so, with traders unable to either sell equity futures or buy Treasurys, they still can rush into the VIX, which is a long way away from its 70%+ limit up, a number which may be reached but would virtually assure another great depression.

The night’s big irony is that unable to sell anything else, funds – facing historic margin calls on Monday – are selling what they can… such as gold, which after hitting $1700 earlier in the session has tumbled 0.7% as more investors liquidate the safe asset to shore up liquidity ahead of a Monday that nobody will every forget… and in which many, most certainly anyone who was long oil, will lose their jobs.

Meanwhile, the asset that started the evening’s avalanche, crude, continues to crater with West Texas now trading with a $27-handle, down more than $15 (!) from Friday’s close.

Commenting on the unprecedented crash in oil, Pickering Energy’s Dan Pickering put the crash in perspective: “From OPEC share announcement in 2014 it took 14-15 months for oil to break $30 (Feb 2016)  This time it took less than 1 trading day.  Breathtaking!  Energy industry, welcome back to Hell.”

Dan Pickering@pickeringenergy

As I type, front month is trading ~$28/bbl. From OPEC share announcement in 2014 it took 14-15 months for oil to break $30 (Feb 2016) This time it took less than 1 trading day. Breathtaking! Energy industry, welcome back to Hell.

He is right, and nowhere more so than junk bonds: once markets open tomorrow (assuming they are not indefinitely halted), keep a close eye on HYG, which consists more than 10% of energy junk bonds, and is set to plunge by the most on record.

And speaking of the plunge in crude (and “value” energy stocks), tomorrow we may also see the VIXtermination-like vaporization of 3x levered oil and E&P ETFs such as UWT and GUSH, for which the 30% drop in oil will be a liquidation event catalyst.

Will Hershey@maybebullish

It’s not crazy to think that , 3x levered E&P ETP, might blow up tomorrow.

Nate Geraci@NateGeraci

VelocityShares 3x Long Crude Oil ETN ($UWT) currently has $500mil in assets… https://www.velocityshares.com/etns/resource/prospectus-etn_uwt-velocityshares-3x-long-crude-oil/ 

View image on Twitter

Curiously, not even a hail mary attempt by Bloomberg, which shortly before midnight blasted that “the Trump administration is drafting measures to blunt the economic fallout from coronavirus and help slow its spread in the U.S., including a temporary expansion of paid sick leave and possible help for companies facing disruption from the outbreak” had absolutely any impact on stocks.

Why? Because not only will any fiscal stimulus less than $2-$3 trillion be roundly ignored by the market, but because at this moment there are only two question on every trader’s mind: at what time on Monday morning will the Fed announce a 50-100bps emergency rate cut – the second in under a week – and, more importantly, will it include the official resumption of QE, and potentially the launch of helicopter money i.e., MMT.

Anything less than this would be a disappointment.

And yet, even if the Fed vows to buy not only stocks but also oil, at this point what it is really buying is just time: time for those who still own financial assets to sell as much as they can before the Fed loses all control, having already lost credibility, culminating in the biggest crash in history.. and a market that is indefinitely halted.

Finally, for all those Millennials who are shocked by this evening’s selloff, we leave the final word to the Stalingrad & Poorski twitter account, who put it best: “This is not crazy. What was crazy was the reckless monetary policies of central banks that led to this.”

Stalingrad & Poorski@Stalingrad_Poor

Love people calling these moves we are seeing right now ‘crazy’. This is not crazy. What was crazy was the reckless monetary policies of central banks that led to this.

Then again, as we have so often said, as long as those reckless policies pushed stocks – and the “wealth effect” higher – nobody cared. They will, however, care this time.

end

MONDAY /START OF TRADING

Dow Dumps 2000 Points, Markets Extend Losses After Circuit-Breaker

Update (0952ET): Cash indices have reopened after their 15-min circuit-breaker halt and are extending losses. The Dow is down 2000 points!

*  *  *

As we noted pre-open, S&P futures were locked limit-down 5%, but as we noted SPY was trading down 7.5% in the pre-open…

and now that the cash S&P 500 has opened and tumbled 7%…

…it is now halted for 15mins as the first major circuit-breaker has kicked in. As a reminder:

  • If the S&P 500 declines 7%, (208 points), trading will pause for 15 min
  • If declines 13%, (386 pts) trading will again pause for 15 mins
  • If falls 20%, (594 pts) the markets would close for the day.

Additionally, Canadian stocks are down 7% at the open, the most since 2008; and Brazilian stocks are down 10% at the open, triggering their circuit breaker.

This has entirely erased all the Fed liquidity-add gains…

S&P is now unchanged since January 2018…

Buy and hold?

 
END

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

Los Angeles: 

The port of Los Angeles is taking a substantial hit because of the coronavirus

(zerohedge)

Port Of Los Angeles Taking “Substantial Hit”, Expects Volume To Plunge 15% From Coronavirus

As the coronavirus grinds the world’s economy to a halt, and supply-chains break, many of the key components of US commerce – like port traffic – are starting to feel the virus’ ugly effects. For instance, year over year volume at the Port of Los Angeles – the busiest seaport not only in the US but in the entire Western hemisphere – is expected to plunge 15% in the first quarter as a result of  the outbreak.

Executive Director Gene Seroka told American Shipper: “Forty vessel sailings have been canceled from Asia, mainly China, to the Port of Los Angeles from Feb. 11 through April 1. Those 40 vessel cancellations would represent nearly 25% of our normal traffic at the Port of Los Angeles.”

He continued: “There are a number of revenue streams that are floating here: the goods themselves, the ocean freight, the business on the docks, truck and warehouse communities. This will be substantial and I’ve given guidance to the marketplace that for the first quarter of 2020, the Port of Los Angeles volume will be down 15% year-on-year.”

He also said that nonperishable exports are piling up across the country: “We’re going to start to see a whipsaw effect in the industry. Pretty quickly those empties and exports will need to be evacuated to get ready for factory production when we curb — or hopefully eradicate — this virus and workers can get back on the job.”

He continued: “This is a human health concern number one, and we need all hands on deck to get our people well and back to productive lives. But at the same time, we’re going to have to find equilibrium in the industry to play catch-up and then even out before we reach our traditional peak season this summer.”

 

Meanwhile, some businesses, like CMA CGM group in China, said they are entering the “recovery phase” of operations.

The company said: “Manufacturing activities are gradually picking up, more port workers and truck drivers are returning to their posts and cargo flow is easing up at the major coastal ports.”

But in the U.S., the effects on ports are widespread. In addition to Los Angeles, Baltimore reduced its workday by 75 minutes effective Monday. The Georgia Port Authority said that imports handled at two of their ports could fall by 40% in March and April. The American Association of Port Authorities said overall volume at U.S. ports in Q1 could be down by 20% or more. 

END

In latest report, all hospital beds in the uSA will be filled with coronavirus patients by May 8

(zerohedge)

  • We can expect that we’ll continue to see a doubling of cases every 6 days (this is a typical doubling time across several epidemiological studies). Here I mean *actual* cases. Confirmed cases may appear to rise faster in the short term due to new test kit rollouts.
  • We’re looking at about 1M US cases by the end of April, 2M by ~May 5, 4M by ~May 11, and so on. Exponentials are hard to grasp, but this is how they go.
  • As the healthcare system begins to saturate under this case load, it will become increasingly hard to detect, track, and contain new transmission chains. In absence of extreme interventions, this likely won’t slow significantly until hitting >>1% of susceptible population.
  • What does a case load of this size mean for healthcare system? We’ll examine just two factors — hospital beds and masks — among many, many other things that will be impacted.
  • The US has about 2.8 hospital beds per 1000 people. With a population of 330M, this is ~1M beds. At any given time, 65% of those beds are already occupied. That leaves about 330k beds available nationwide (perhaps a bit fewer this time of year with regular flu season, etc).
  • Let’s trust Italy’s numbers and assume that about 10% of cases are serious enough to require hospitalization. (Keep in mind that for many patients, hospitalization lasts for *weeks* — in other words, turnover will be *very* slow as beds fill with COVID19 patients).
  • By this estimate, by about May 8th, all open hospital beds in the US will be filled(This says nothing, of course, about whether these beds are suitable for isolation of patients with a highly infectious virus.)
  • If we’re wrong by a factor of two regarding the fraction of severe cases, that only changes the timeline of bed saturation by 6 days in either direction. If 20% of cases require hospitalization, we run out of beds by ~May 2nd.
  • If only 5% of cases require it, we can make it until ~May 14th. 2.5% gets us to May 20th. This, of course, assumes that there is no uptick in demand for beds from *other* (non-COVID19) causes, which seems like a dubious assumption.
  • As healthcare system becomes increasingly burdened, Rx shortages, etc, people w/ chronic conditions that are normally well-managed may find themselves slipping into severe states of medical distress requiring intensive care & hospitalization. But let’s ignore that for now.
  • Alright, so that’s beds. Now masks. Feds say we have a national stockpile of 12M N95 masks and 30M surgical masks (which are not ideal, but better than nothing).
  • There are about 18M healthcare workers in the US. Let’s assume only 6M HCW are working on any given day. (This is likely an underestimate as most people work most days of the week, but again, I’m playing conservative at every turn.)
  • As COVID19 cases saturate virtually every state and county, which seems likely to happen any day now, it will soon be irresponsible for all HCWs to not wear a mask. These HCWs would burn through N95 stockpile in 2 days if each HCW only got ONE mask per day.
  • One per day would be neither sanitary nor pragmatic, though this is indeed what we saw in Wuhan, with HCWs collapsing on their shift from dehydration because they were trying to avoid changing their PPE suits as they cannot be reused.
  • How quickly could we ramp up production of new masks? Not very fast at all. The vast majority are manufactured overseas, almost all in China. Even when manufactured here in US, the raw materials are predominantly from overseas… again, predominantly from China.
  • Keep in mind that all countries globally will be going through the exact same crises and shortages simultaneously. We can’t force trade in our favor.
  • Now consider how these 2 factors – bed and mask shortages – compound each other’s severity. Full hospitals + few masks + HCWs running around between beds without proper PPE = very bad mix.
  • HCWs are already getting infected even w/ access to full PPE. In the face of PPE limitations this severe, it’s only a matter of time. HCWs will start dropping from the workforce for weeks at a time, leading to a shortage of HCWs that then further compounds both issues above.
  • We could go on and on about thousands of factors – # of ventilators, or even simple things like saline drip bags. You see where this is going.
  • Importantly, I cannot stress this enough: even if I’m wrong – even VERY wrong – about core assumptions like % of severe cases or current case #, it only changes the timeline by days or weeks. This is how exponential growth in an immunologically naïve population works.
  • Undeserved panic does no one any good. But neither does ill-informed complacency. It’s wrong to assuage the public by saying “only 2% will die.” People aren’t adequately grasping the national and global systemic burden wrought by this swift-moving of a disease.
  • I’m an engineer. This is what my mind does all day: I run back-of-the-envelope calculations to try to estimate order-of-magnitude impacts. I’ve been on high alarm about this disease since ~Jan 19 after reading clinical indicators in the first papers emerging from Wuhan.
  • Nothing in the last 6 weeks has dampened my alarm in the slightest. To the contrary, we’re seeing abject refusal of many countries to adequately respond or prepare. Of course some of these estimates will be wrong, even substantially wrong.
  • But I have no reason to think they’ll be orders-of-magnitude wrong. Even if your personal risk of death is very, very low, don’t mock decisions like canceling events or closing workplaces as undue “panic”.
  • These measures are the bare minimum we should be doing to try to shift the peak – to slow the rise in cases so that healthcare systems are less overwhelmed. Each day that we can delay an extra case is a big win for the HC system.
  • And yes, you really should prepare to buckle down for a bit. All services and supply chains will be impacted. Why risk the stress of being ill-prepared?
  • Worst case, I’m massively wrong and you now have a huge bag of rice and black beans to burn through over the next few months and enough Robitussin to trip out.
  • One more thought: you’ve probably seen multiple respected epidemiologists have estimated that 20-70% of world will be infected within the next year. If you use 6-day doubling rate I mentioned above, we land at ~2-6 billion infected by sometime in July of this year.
  • Obviously I think the doubling time will start to slow once a sizeable fraction of the population has been infected, simply because of herd immunity and a smaller susceptible population.
  • But take the scenarios above (full beds, no PPE, etc, at just 1% of the US population infected) and stretch them out over just a couple extra months.
  • That timeline roughly fits with consensus end-game numbers from these highly esteemed epidemiologists. Again, we’re talking about discrepancies of mere days or weeks one direction or another, but not disagreements in the overall magnitude of the challenge.
  • This is not some hypothetical, fear-mongering, worst-case scenario. This is reality, as far as anyone can tell with the current available data.
  • That’s all for now. Standard disclaimers apply: I’m a PhD biologist but *not* an epidemiologist. Thoughts my own. Yadda yadda. Stay safe out there. /end

Liz Specht@LizSpecht

END

Interesting: Greenspan cannot rule out negative rates on the 30 yr rate. This will not happen as all commodities due to their price in dollars will go into backwardation

(zerohedge/Liz McCormack)

Greenspan Can’t Rule Out Negative Rates on 30-Year U.S. Bonds

  • ‘There’s really not a limit on how low the yield can go’
  • Former Fed chief spoke on 94th birthday as rates crumbled

Just before leaving work early on his 94th birthday Friday, former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan gave a stark reminder of just how weird the U.S. Treasury market has gotten.

Yields on 30-year bonds, he said, could go negative, joining more than $14 trillion of debt worldwide that already sports a rate below zero.

Read More: Bond Markets Shred History Books in Grip of Furious Fear Trade

The long bond’s yield went into free fall Friday, plunging as much as 36 basis points to a record low of 1.18%. Greenspan’s former employer, the Fed, tried to stem the virus-inspired pain earlier this week, announcing its first emergency rate cut since the 2008 crisis. It didn’t work: The 30-year yield ended at 1.72% on Monday, the day before the central bank took action.

 

“We were getting very significant declines in the 30-year yield even before the virus, as people are living longer and searching for ways to invest over that period in securities that seem secure,” Greenspan, who led the central bank from 1987 to 2006, said in a phone interview. “There’s really not a limit on how low the yield can go, even zero is not a limit. A negative rate is possible.”

30-year yield breaking below zero is plausible to Greenspan
END
NEW YORK
Cuomo contemplating mass quarantine in New York State
(zerohedge)

After State Of Emergency, Cuomo Hints At Mass Quarantines For New York

New York Governor Andrew Cuomo declared a state of emergency on Saturday on fears Covid-19 cases are set to increasein the coming days. The emergency declaration gives Cuomo the ability to bolster the medical response to combat the virus outbreak, primarily centered in Westchester County, a region outside of New York City. As of Sunday, New York state has 105 confirmed cases.

Cuomo made an appearance on Sunday Morning Futures on Fox News, where he hopes that NYC will “avoid massive quarantines used in China and Italy.”

He said, “if we need to close schools, we will close schools.” Already, several prep schools in NYC have shuttered over fears of the virus. Schools are among the various venues which, like cruise ships, concentrate a large number of people in a small space and in light of the unprecedented contagion of the coronavirus, any possibility of social-spreading has to be minimized.

JERRY DUNLEAVY@JerryDunleavy

NY Gov Andrew Cuomo just told Fox News “worse than the virus right now is the fear pandemic” & “the fear is more dangerous than the virus.”

This is a trope ppl repeat that sounds insightful — but is it true? Undue fear is dumb, yes, but the virus is killing people — is the fear?

<

Cuomo said there’s “no reason” at the moment to shutdown mass transportation in the city, however that clearly will change when the number of cases spike, and the fact that Cuomo is contemplating it means that this will likely be the next escalation in the fight against the pandemic. We noted on Saturday, Amtrak shuttered several non-stop lines from Washington, DC, to NYC on declining demand for travel due to the virus outbreak.

Andrew Cuomo

@NYGovCuomo

At Northwell Health on Long Island with an update on . WATCH: https://www.pscp.tv/w/cTOxpTIyNjcxMDN8MW1ueGVRd01rd1J4WMQQ3-hhxXYtrtGUmNrM6vOlXuzIdKCeuzHFtprpRBeE 

<

Separately, Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), told NBC News on Sunday that if the virus continues to spread, “Americans should reconsider attendance at large gatherings.” All suggestive that mass quarantines, currently seen in China, Italy, and other hard-hit countries, could be coming to the US.

With limited virus test kits and no vaccine for 12 to 18 months, it appears Cuomo and Fauci on Sunday morning could be hinting of future quarantines. Last month the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said the virus is expected to spread at a community level in the US, warning that it could disrupt daily life for millions of people.

“As we’ve seen from recent countries with community spread, when it has hit those countries, it has moved quite rapidly. We want to make sure the American public is prepared,” Nancy Messonnier, director of CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, told reporters last month.

Meanwhile, for the second weekend in a row, Americans across the country continued an epic run on Costco stores, loading up on supplies in anticipation of mass quarantines.  At a Costco in Astoria shoppers were lined up around the block waiting to get into the store’s parking lot.

Cristian Benavides

@cbenavidesTV

Here’s another look at the line for Costco in Astoria that continues to grow. As New Yorkers stock up on supplies over coronavirus fears @PIX11News

Embedded video

Unfortunately, with the pandemic only just getting into gear on the continental US, expect this map to have much more red in the coming weeks.

end

Fauci: Coronavirus Spread In America ‘Not Encouraging’; Says Americans Should Avoid Large Gatherings, Especially If Vulnerable

The director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, Dr. Anthony Fauci, recommended on Sunday that elderly and vulnerable Americans avoid travel and large crowds as coronavirus gains a foothold in the United States.

In an interview with NBC‘s “Meet the Press,” Fauci emphasized that the elderly and people with “underlying conditions” are “overwhelmingly” more likely to be hit worse by coronavirus, according to NBC News.

“If you are an elderly person with an underlying condition, if you get infected, the risk of getting into trouble is considerable. So it’s our responsibility to protect the vulnerable,” he said, adding “When I say protect, I mean right now. Not wait until things get worse. Say no large crowds, no long trips. And above all, don’t get on a cruise ship.

Meet the Press

@MeetThePress

WATCH: “Don’t get on a cruise ship” if you have an underlying health condition, the director of National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases warns on .

Dr. Anthony Fauci says people who are already vulnerable to health infections should take extra precautions.

Embedded video

“They call it social distancing, but it’s common sense stuff. You don’t want to go to a massive gathering, particularly if you’re a vulnerable individual,” he added. “If we continue to see the community spread go up I think you need to seriously look at anything that’s a large gathering.”

As of March 7, there were confirmed cases of coronavirus in the U.S. based on NBC News reporting, with more than half of states reporting at least one case.

There are more than 100,000 confirmed cases around the world, according to the World Health Organization. Some countries are taking dramatic steps in the hopes of stopping the virus’ spread, like in Italy, where millions are on lockdown in the Lombardy region.

Federal and local governments and health agencies are scrambling to understand the virus’ spread in America and take measures to stop it.

The governors are really on the front lines. I think there’s been pretty good cooperation at the federal, state and local level, but this thing is escalating so rapidly that information is changing, not only on a daily basis, but almost on an hourly basis,” Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan, R, told “Meet the Press.” –NBC News

Fauci also admitted that early attempts to provide coronavirus tests around the country were delayed, but that the nation’s ability to test for the virus is “accelerating, dramatically.”

“Early on, there were some missteps with regard to the test and some technical aspects to it. But right now, I believe, 1.1 million tests have already been sent out. By Monday, there’ll be an additional 400,000. And by the end of next week, probably around 4 million,” he said.

Boeing Crashes 10% After Report FAA May Require 737 MAX Electrical Fix Before Jet Flies Again

Just as Boeing has been beefing up its supply chain with new hires and attempting to restart 737 Max production by mid-year, the FAA is poised to require electrical wiring issues, first discovered back in December, to be fixed before the planes can return to the sky, The Wall Street Journal reported on Sunday evening.

Sources told the Journal that FAA managers and engineers have concluded that the layout of the Max’s wiring violates wiring-safety standards. The current configuration, under extreme conditions, could cause a short-circuit in the plane’s flight-control systems and lead to a crash, similar to what happened with two Max jets that killed 346 people.

A preliminary decision, which has yet to be finalized, could require the Chicago plane maker to fix electrical issues on 800 Max airlines already produced. The sources said Boeing has argued with FAA managers about the wiring setup and how it satisfies international safety standards.

The emergence of the electrical issues, and the likely need for Boeing to reroute the wires, comes as the FAA has delayed flight tests for the Max’s flight control system, known as Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System (MCAS).

The Journal notes that Boeing has already planned on several ways to reroute the wires and will likely accept the FAA’s position on the issue. 

More issues for Max jets developed last month when an internal Boeing report found dozens of jets had foreign-object debris (FOD) in the fuel tanks.

Airlines have been aware of the new setbacks and pushed out MAX return to service dates to late summer and or even fall.

Southwest said it is extending its MAX flight cancellations through August 20, the largest US airline (by available seat miles) United Airlines, also said it was pulling the MAX from its schedule until September.

 

Sources were unclear if wiring adjustments in the 800 Max jets would lead to production restart and or flight test delays.

Boeing shares are collapsing further on the news, and the broad market, down almost 10%…

The King report (courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA)

Panic appeared last night.  At 22:00 ET, the ESHs & Nasdaq futures are down the 5% limit; the US 30-year is 0.953%.  Brent crude fell >31%; WTI tanked 27% (30.0 low).  The oil crash will blow up some entities.  Credit concerns for energy entities will intensify.  The ¥/$ (102.20; 112 on 2/21) is surging on foreigner entity repatriation of funds; tis why Bitcoin is -12%.  Japan Q4 GDP is -7.1%.  Who will intervene to save the equity and the credit markets?  Next limits: -7% & -13%.

 

Saudis Plan Big Oil Output Hike, Launching All-Our Price War – Talks in Vienna ended in dramatic failure on Friday as Saudi Arabia’s gamble to get Russia to agree to a prolonged and deeper cut failed to pay off… effectively ends the cooperation between Saudi Arabia and Russia that has underpinned oil prices since 2016… https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-07/saudi-aramco-slashes-crude-prices-kicking-off-price-war

Putin Dumps MBS [Prince Mohammed bin Salman] to Start a War on America’s Shale Oil Industry

The Kremlin had decided that propping up prices as the coronavirus ravaged energy demand would be a gift to the U.S. shale industry… Now it was time to squeeze the Americans… https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-07/putin-dumps-mbs-to-start-a-war-on-america-s-shale-oil-industry

One comment

  1. Hi Harvey,
    Today’s blog post didn’t format correctly on my admittedly archaic machine and browser. Everything after the following text lacked blank lines and was in the same font.

    “FEB 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.40 TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE: A TINY WITHDRAWAL OF .29 TONNES OF GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 903.21 TONNES( TO PAY FOR FEES LIKE STORAGE INSURANCE ETC)”

    Best,
    Dave

    Like

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