MARCH 17//FED RESCUES THE MARKET WITH A PROPOSAL FOR HELICOPTER MONEY/SOW UP 1048 POINTS/NASDAQ UP 430 POINTS//DOW UP $37.60 BUT SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS//ZOLTAN POZSAR A MUST READ….//CORONAVIRUS UPDATE// SWAMP STORIES////

GOLD::$1525.20  UP $37.60

 

 

Silver:$12.49//DOWN 20 CENTS (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Closing access prices:

 

 

 

Gold : $1528.80

 

SILVER:  $12.62

 

 

 

 

COMEX DATA

 

 

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING: 0/60

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: MARCH 2020 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,485.900000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 03/16/2020 DELIVERY DATE: 03/18/2020
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
118 H MACQUARIE FUT 21
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 28
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 9
732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 1
737 C ADVANTAGE 13 18
800 C MAREX SPEC 6 3
905 C ADM 4 17
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 60 60
MONTH TO DATE: 1,785

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  MAR CONTRACT: 60 NOTICE(S) FOR 6000 OZ (0.1866 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  1785 NOTICES FOR 178500 OZ  (5.520 TONNES)

 

 

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR MARCH

 

 

24 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 120,000  OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month: 3995 for 19,975,000 oz

 

BITCOIN MORNING QUOTE  $5358 UP $358 

 

BITCOIN AFTERNOON QUOTE.:$5360 UP 333

GLD AND SLV INVENTORIES:

 

GLD: 929.84 TONNES OF GOLD//A BIG  CHANGE: DOWN 1.75 TONNES

 

SLV: 353.203 MILLION OZ.//LOSS OF 3.735 MILLION OZ//

 

 

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Let us have a look at the data for today

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

IN SILVER THE COMEX OI FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 2845 CONTRACTS FROM 171,588 DOWN TO 168,743 AND FURTHER FROM OUR NEW RECORD OF 244,710, (FEB 25/2020.  THE LOSS IN OI OCCURRED WITH OUR HUGE $1.79 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION,  AS ALL OF THE LOSS IN OI IS DUE TO  BANKER SHORT COVERING PLUS AN ATMOSPHERIC EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE AND A STRONG INCREASE IN AMOUNT STANDING AT THE COMEX. WE HAD A HUGE NET GAIN IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 7680 CONTRACTS  (SEE CALCULATIONS BELOW)

 

 

 

 

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:,

; MARCH:  00 AND MAY: 10,290 AND JULY: 0 ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  10,290 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 10,290 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 10,290 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 28.25 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE $1.79 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

7.32     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

2.630     MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOV.

20.970   MILLION OZ  FINAL STANDING IN DEC

5.075     MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JAN

1.480    MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN FEB

21.73  MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING FOR MAR

 

MONDAY, AGAIN OUR CROOKS USED COPIOUS PAPER IN ORDER TO LIQUIDATE SILVER’S PRICE…AND THEY WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL $1.79).. AND, OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS  WERE   UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE  SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR POSITIONS. AS WE DID HAVE A HUGE NET GAIN OF 7680 CONTRACTS OR 38.40 MILLION OZ ON THE TWO EXCHANGES!

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF MARCH:

43,719 CONTRACTS (FOR 12 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 43,719 CONTRACTS) OR 218.595 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 3643 CONTRACTS OR 18.216 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF MAR: 218.595 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 31.22% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

 

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2020 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          659.805 MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2020 EFP TOTALS SO FAR: 181.61 MILLION OZ

FEB 2020 EFP’S TOTAL :  ……     259.600 MILLION OZ

MARCH EFP’S SO FAR…..          218.595 MILLION OZ

 

 

RESULT: WE HAD A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 2845,  WITH THE $1.79 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /MONDAY… THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 10,290 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER

 

TODAY WE GAINED AN ATMOSPHERIC :  7445 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: (WITH THE 179 CENT FALL IN PRICE

 

THE TALLY//EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

i.e 10,290 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH DECREASE OF 2845 OI COMEX CONTRACTS.AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A  $1.79 LOSS IN PRICE OF SILVER/ AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $12.69 // MONDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY AS WELL AS A HUGE INCREASE IN QUEUE JUMPING!! 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 0.8435 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 121% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW  MAR DELIVERY MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 24 NOTICE(S) FOR  120,000 OZ OF SILVER.

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018. AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.70//TODAY’S RECORD OF 244,705 IS SET WITH A PRICE OF: 18.91 (FEB 25/2020)

 

.

 

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 10.025 MILLION OZ/ SEPT 43.030 MILLION OZ//OCT: 7.665 MILLION OZ//   NOV: 2.630 MILLION OZ//DEC:  20.970 MILLION OZ; JAN:  5.075 MILLION OZ.//FEB 1.480 MILLION OZ//MAR: 21.73 MILLION OZ
  2. THE  RECORD PRIOR TO TODAY WAS SET IN FEB 25/2018:  244,710 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $18.90//.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

 

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 

GOLD

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE BUT SMALLER THAN EXPECTED 10,922 CONTRACTS TO 571,178 AND MOVING FURTHER FROM OUR NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE  LOSS OF COMEX OI OCCURRED WITH OUR MONSTROUS LOSS IN PRICE OF $30.00 /// COMEX GOLD TRADING// MONDAY// WE,  HAD CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING ALONG WITH ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION ACCOMPANYING AN ATMOSPHERIC  EX. FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED AND YET THIS WAS COUPLED WITH THAT STRONG FALL IN PRICE.  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE THE HUGE FALL IN PRICE, WE GAINED A HUMONGOUS 13,745 CONTRACTS  (42.75 TONNES)

 

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

 

 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A HUMONGOUS AND CRIMINALLY SIZED 22,595 CONTRACTS:

CONTRACTS, FEB>  CONTRACTS; MARCH 00 APRIL: 24,604. MAY: 0, AND JUNE. 63 AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO//TOTAL: 22,595.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 571,178. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 13,745 CONTRACTS: 10,922 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX  AND 24,667 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 13,745 CONTRACTS OR 42.75 TONNES. MONDAY, WE HAD A HUGE LOSS OF $30.00 IN GOLD TRADING.…..

AND WITH THAT HUMONGOUS LOSS IN  PRICE, SURPRISINGLY WE STILL HAD A HUGE SIZED GAIN IN  TOTAL/TWO EXCHANGES GOLD TONNAGE OF 42.75  TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS/OFFICIAL SECTOR WERE SUPPLYING INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER WITH RECKLESS ABANDON. THE BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE (LOSS $30.00). AND IT SEEMS THAT THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE ANY GOLD LONGS FROM THE GOLD ARENA WERE UNSUCCESSFUL AS WE HAD A STRONG GAIN IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES:

SEE BELOW:

 WE HAD  A HUMONGOUS INCREASE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS  (24,667) ACCOMPANYING THE SMALLER THAN EXPECTED LOSS IN COMEX OI.(10,922 OI):  TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES:  13,745 CONTRACTS.  WE NO DOUBT HAD HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AND NO LONG LIQUIDATION…..COUPLED WITH THAT HUGE COMEX OI FALL

 

 

SPREADING OPERATION FOR OUR NEWCOMERS:

WE HAVE NOW COMMENCED IN GOLD THE ILLEGAL SPREADING OPERATION \ FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS:

 

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW STOPPED IN GOLD AS THEY NOW BEGIN TO MORPH INTO SILVER AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW FRONT MONTH WILL BE APRIL.

 

 

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEW, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE SPREADERS AND THE CRIMINAL ELEMENT BEHIND IT:

 

 

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR SILVER..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR GOLD.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEWCOMERS HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

.

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO GOLD AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX SILVER OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MARCH FOR SILVER:

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON  ACTIVE MONTH OF MAR.BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN GOLD WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (APRIL), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2020 INCLUDING TODAY

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF MAR : 227,512 CONTRACTS OR 22,751,200 oz OR 707.65 TONNES (12 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 18,959 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 12 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 707.65 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 707.65/3550 x 100% TONNES =19/93% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD HAS EXPLODED THIS MONTH.

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2020 TO DATE   1931.62  TONNES

JANUARY 2220 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE; : 570.19 TONNES

FEB 2020 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE :            653.78 TONNES

MARCH TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE SO FAR   707.65  TONNES  (12 TRADING DAYS)

 

 

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest in SILVER FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 2,845 CONTRACTS FROM 171,588 DOWN TO 168,978 AND FURTHER FROM OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 3/4 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

ALL OF THE LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS DUE TO 1) BANKER SHORT COVERING , 2) THE ISSUANCE OF AN ATMOSPHERIC NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (SEE BELOW), 3) A HUGE INCREASE IN SILVER OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX WITH SOME AMOUNT OF LONG LIQUIDATION

 

EFP ISSUANCE 10,290

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 FOR FEB. 0; FOR MAR  0:  AND MAY: 10,290; JULY: 0 CONTRACTS   AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 10,290 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE OI LOSS AT THE COMEX OF 2845 CONTRACTS TO THE 10,290 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A MONSTROUS GAIN OF 7445 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES  37.225 MILLION OZ!!! AND WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL  18.765 MILLION OZ FOR MAY  NOW 2.660 MILLION OZ FOR JUNE WITH JULY AT 22.605 MILLION OZ AUGUST AT 10.025 MILLION OZ//  SEPT: 43.030 MILLION OZ///OCT: 7.32 MILLION OZ//NOV 2.63 MILLION OZ//DEC: 20.970 MILLION OZ//JAN: 5.075 MILLION OZ//FEB: 1.480 MILLION OZ//MAR: 21.73 MILLION OZ

 

 

RESULT: A LARGE SIZED DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE 179 CENT FALL IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// MONDAY. WE ALSO HAD AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED 10,290 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON. THE ENTIRE LOSS OF COMEX OI WAS DUE TO SPREADER LIQUIDATION AND THAT HUGE ISSUANCE OF EX. FOR PHYSICALS.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

(report Harvey)

 

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)TUESDAY MORNING/ MONDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 9.61 POINTS OR 0.34%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 200.16 POINTS OR 0.87%   /The Nikkei closed UP 9.47 POINTS OR 0.06%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 5.42%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 7.0389 /Oil UP TO 57.21 dollars per barrel for WTI and 64.13 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.0389 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0390 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED/CORONAVIRUS  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%.

3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

 

3b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3C  CHINA

i)CHINA/ GLOBE//CORONAVIRUS//UPDATE

Your update through the night

(zerohedge)

ii)China expels foreign journalists working for the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal and the WaSHINGTON POST

(ZEROHEDGE)

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

UK

The virus could last until the Spring of 2021, in the uK

(zerohedge)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

i)IRAN/USA

After firing rockets into Iraq, Pompeo warns that they are on the brink of war with a nation that can hardly stand on its own two feet due the the devastating effects of the coronavirus and their huge debt

(zerohedge)

ii)IRAN/ISRAEL, EGYPT/IRAQ/LEBANON

Middle East update/Coronavirus
(ASSOCIATED PRESS)

6.Global Issues

i)The Fed always listens to Zoltan Pozsar formerly of the NY Fed.  He states that the Fed must now bailout the globe with liquidity and dollars to avoid devastation

a must read..if your can understand this

(zerohedge)

ii)The wrong bazooka:  it looks like the Fed must do exactly what Pozsar suggests;  bailout the globe

(zero hedge)

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)Dave Kranzler explains the huge disconnect between paper and physical gold.

(Dave Kranzler/IRD)

ii)Ronan Manly collectedly states that the selling of gold was not margin call but as I have indicated in the comex report, nothing but a massive increase in short comex issuance and ex. for physicals by the bankers.

(Manly/Bullionstar)

iii)Commercial Paper has seized and thus the reason that the Fed bailout out this industry this morning

(Bloomberg)//GATA

10. important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

Market rises after falling badly on European close.

(courtesy zerohedge)

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

a)As expected, retail sales tumble in February.. The numbers will be worse in March

(zerohedge)

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

a)Every day, the Fed injects liquidity:  today,  189 billion in repo liquidity as libor explodes higher (see explanation below)

(zerohedge)

b)The real problem facing the Fed is that major European corporations are massively short Euro dollars  (USA dollars situated in Europe).  The dollars were issued by the shadow banking sector and not the Fed.  They  were issued when interest rates were zero.  Now firms are collapsing and they need to find euro dollars to repay their debts..this is the reason for Libor escalating plus other stuff..

(zerohedge)

c)Then late in the morning another 500 billion dollar repo liquidity advance:(courtesy zerohedge)

d)Then the Fed announces the bailout of the Commercial Paper Market

This shows that Wall Street is in deep trouble

the key paragraph:

“Now the bad news: by launching the Lehman playbook, the Fed is telegraphing that the US is now facing systemic risk which also includes the banks and corporations, something which was missing until now. Which is why after a brief kneejerk reaction higher, markets may fade it all and crash to new lows especially if the market demands to see what if any other ammunition the Fed has left, with expectations that sooner or later the Fed will do as Yellen hinted three months ago when she said that the Fed will eventually have to buy stocks.”

(zerohedge)

e)Then: despite the Commercial Paper bailout the all important FRA–OIS cross blew out indicating that there is a huge dollar shortage (namely Eurodollars) as explained above

(zerohedge)

f)Boeing which had repurchased over 100 billion dollars of its own stock is down graded to BBB and most importantly is seeing a short term bailout

(zero hedge)

g)The USA coronavirus bill stalls as Republicans demand corrections and transparency

(zerohedge)

h)skynews/coronavirus/New York/LosAngeles/update

(skynews)

Coronavirus: US cities put into lockdown as COVID-19 cases worldwide overtake China

i)Massive layoffs in the New York area as 10,000’s lose their jobs(zerohedge)

iv) Swamp commentaries)

What a joke:  The Dept of Justice files to drop the charges against those Russian Bot farms that actually showed up to fight the MNueller indictment.

Thus we have no Russian convictions on meddling.

(zerohedge)

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

 

LET US BEGIN:

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A SMALLER THAN EXPECTED 8,763 CONTRACTS TO 573,337 MOVING FURTHER FROM OUR  RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020).  AND THIS FALL IN OI WAS SET WITH A STRONG LOSS OF $30.00 IN GOLD PRICING //MONDAY’S  COMEX TRADING//). HOWEVER WE ALSO HAD AN ATMOSPHERIC EFP ISSUANCE (24,667 CONTRACTS),.  THUS WE HAD 1) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AT THE COMEX AND 2) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION ……AS OUR TWO EXCHANGES ROSE HUGELY IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST..DESPITE THE HUGE LOSS  IN PRICE….  BASICALLY LONGS JUST TRANSFERRED OVER TO LONDON COUPLED WITH CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING AT THE COMEX

 

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MARCH..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 24,667 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

 FEB: 0; MARCH 00 AND APRIL: 24,604, MAY: 0  JUNE : 63 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 24,667CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:  13,745 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 24,667 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON BUT WE LOST A SMALL SIZED 10,922 COMEX CONTRACTS.  THE BANKERS PROVIDED ALL THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER TO WHICH OUR LONGS DUTIFULLY ACCEPTED AS THEY GOBBLED UP ATMOSPHERIC AMOUNTS OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS COUPLED WITH A HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING.(FOLLOWING THE  COMEX OI DECLINE)

 

 

THE BANKERS WERE  SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE DRAMATICALLY //// (IT FELL BY $30.00). THEY WERE MOST DEFINITELY  UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING ANY LONGS, AS THE TOTAL GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 42.75 TONNES WAS MAINLY DUE TO BANKER SHORT COVERING AND ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. 

 

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ::  13,745 CONTRACTS OR 1,374,500 OZ OR  42.75 TONNES. 

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT COMMODITY FUTURES OPEN INTEREST SHOULD APPROXIMATE 3% OF TOTAL PRODUCTION.  IN GOLD THE WORLD PRODUCES AROUND 3500 TONNES PER YEAR BUT ONLY 2200 TONNES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE WEST (THUS EXCLUDING RUSSIA, CHINA ETC..WHO KEEP 100% OF THEIR PRODUCTION)

THUS IN GOLD WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:  571,178 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS X 100 OZ PER CONTRACT = 57.11 MILLION OZ/32,150 OZ PER TONNE =  1776 TONNES

THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST REPRESENTS 1776/2200 OR 80.76% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF GOLD.

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 474,672 contracts

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:

657,490 contracts//

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  MARCH/GOLD

MARCH 17

 

 

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
1607.500 oz
50 kilobars
Loomis
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil oz

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

nil

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
24 notice(s)
 2400 OZ
(0.1866 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
4 contracts
(400 oz)
0.0125 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
1785 notices
178500 OZ
5.520 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

we had 0 dealer entry:

We had 1 kilobar entries

 

 

 

total dealer deposits:nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

 

we had 0 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan: 0  oz

 

ii) Into everybody else: 0

 

 

 

 

total deposits:  0  oz

 

 

we had 1 gold withdrawals from the customer account:

i) Out of Loomis: 1607.500 oz (50 kilobars)

 

total gold withdrawals;  1607.50   oz

 

ADJUSTMENTS: 

Out of HSBC:  964.530 oz was adjusted out of the dealer and this lands into the customer account of HSBC and this will be deemed a settlement.  (0300 tonnes)

 

 

 

 

The front month of MARCH saw its open interest register 64 contracts for a GAIN of 13 contracts.. Surprisingly we had 43 notices filed on FRIDAY so we gained 56 contracts or an additional 5600 oz will stand on this side of the pond as they refused to morph into London based forwards.  The bankers are seeking rapidly depleting physical supplies of gold.

 

APRIL HAD  a LOSS of 26,073 contracts DOWN to 243,721 contracts

May saw its ANOTHER LOSS of 25 contracts to stand at 627.

June saw a GAIN of 16,229 contracts up to 216,247

 

 

We had 60 notices filed today for 6000 oz

 

 

 

FOR THE  MAR 2020 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 60 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the March /2020. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (1785) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  MAR. (64 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today (60 x 100 oz per contract) equals 178,900 OZ OR 5.5645 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this  active month of MAR

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the MAR/2020 contract month:

No of notices served (1785)x 100 oz)  + (64 OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (60 x 100 oz )which equals 178,900 oz standing OR 5.645 TONNES in this active delivery month which is  a great amount for gold standing for a MAR. delivery month.

We gained 56 contracts or 5600 oz will stand for delivery at the comex.

 

 

 

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:  BRINKS

3027.500 OZ  REMOVED TO THE PLEDGED ACCOUNT JAN 10.2020/Brinks

176,211.457 oz NOW PLEDGED  JAN 21.2020/HSBC  5.4807 TONNES

331,789.41.3 oz PLEDGED  MARCH 2020:  10.3200 TONNES

TOTAL PLEDGED GOLD NOW IN EFFECT:  50,800.009 MILLION OZ OR 15.800.959  TONNES

 

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES…. WE HAVE ONLY 37.149 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS.

HERE IS WHAT STOOD DURING THESE PAST 7 MONTHS:  AUGUST 27.153 TONNES

SEPT:                                                                      5.4525 TONNES

OCT…………………………………………………………………………..   37.99 TONNES

NOV……                                                                5.3841 tonnes

DEC………………………….                                              45.912 TONNES

JAN……………………                                                    8.448 TONNES

FEB……………………………………………..                             25.611 tonnes

MARCH………………………………………………………..              5.5645 TONNES

 

total: 161.48 tonnes

 

ACCORDING TO COMEX RULES:

 

IF WE INCLUDE THE PAST 9 MONTHS OF SETTLEMENTS WE HAVE 25,709 TONNES SETTLED

 

 

IF WE ADD THE 9 DELIVERY MONTHS: 161.48  tonnes

 

Thus:

161.48 tonnes of delivery –

25.709 TONNES DEEMED SETTLEMENT

 

=135.771 TONNES STANDING FOR METAL AGAINST 37.149 TONNES OF REGISTERED OR FOR SALE COMEX GOLD! THIS IS WHY GOLD IS SCARCE AT THE COMEX.

 

total registered or dealer gold:   1,702,356.35 oz or  52.95 tonnes
which  includes the following:
a) pledged gold held at HSBC   which cannot settled upon   176,211.457 oz x ( 5.4807 TONNES)//
b) pledged gold held at JPMorgan (added March 2020) which cannot be settled upon:  331,789.443 oz (or 10.3200 tonnes)
total pledged gold:  508,000.900 oz or 15.800 tonnes
thus:
registered gold that can be used to settle upon:1,194,355.4  (37.149 tonnes)
true registered gold  (total registered – pledged tonnes  1,194,355.4  (37.149 tonnes)
total registered, pledged  and eligible (customer) gold;   8,664.319.54 oz 269.496 tonnes

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS

 

1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX 

 

2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.

 

3. NO GOLD IS ENTERING THE COMEX

 

WHY ARE THEY NOT SETTLING?

 

THE COMEX IS AN ABSOLUTE FRAUD..

 

 

end

 

And now for silver

And now for the wild silver comex results

Total COMEX silver OI FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 2845 CONTRACTS FROM 171,588 DOWN TO 168,743 (AND MOVING FURTHER FROM THE NEW ALL TIME RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON FEB 25.2020(244,710) ECLIPSING OUR PREVIOUS RECORD, AUGUST 25/2018 RECORD (244,196).  THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) . OUR CONSIDERABLE OI COMEX LOSS TODAY OCCURRED WITH OUR 179 CENT DECREASE IN PRICING/MONDAY.  THE LOSS IN OI WAS MITIGATED WITH 1)  A HUGE ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS 2) HUGE INCREASE IN SILVER OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX, 3)  HUGE  BANKER SHORT COVERING COUPLED WITH WE ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION. 

 

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAR.

MAR ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH.

 

THE FRONT MONTH OF MAR HAS A TOTAL OPEN INTEREST OF 375 CONTRACTS  WITH A LOSS OF 285 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 303 CONTRACTS ISSUED YESTERDAY SO WE GAINED 18 CONTRACTS OR 90,000 ADDITIONAL OZ WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY AS THEY REFUSED TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARD CONTRACTS AS WELL AS NEGATING A FIAT BONUS.

 

THE NEXT CONTRACT MONTH OF APRIL SAW A GAIN OF 10 CONTRACTS UP TO 449 CONTRACTS. THE BIG CONTRACT OF MAY SAW ITS OI FALL  BY 3745 DOWN TO 110,443

 

 

We, today, had  24 notice(s)  for 120,000, OZ for the MAR, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

THE  DELIVERY MONTH OF MARCH.

INITIAL  standings/SILVER

IN TOTAL CONTRAST TO GOLD, HUGE ACTIVITY IN SILVER TODAY.
MARCH 17/2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 1,403,679.235 oz oz
CNT
Brinks
HSBC

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
nil
No of oz served today (contracts)
24
CONTRACT(S)
(120,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
351 contracts
 1,755,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  3995 contracts

19,975,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

**

total dealer deposits: 0 oz

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

i)we had  0 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:   0

into everybody else: 0 oz

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 160.819 million oz of  total silver inventory or 49.62% of all official comex silver. (160.819 million/323.442 million

 

 

 

total customer deposits today: nil   oz

 

we had 3 withdrawals out of the customer account:

i) Out of CNT:  127,667.07 oz

ii) Out of Brinks: 1,221,826.326  oz

iii) out of HSBC: 54,245/839 oz

 

 

 

 

 

total withdrawals; 1,403,679.235 oz  oz

We had 0 adjustments:

 

total dealer silver:  80.212 million

total dealer + customer silver:  322.048 million oz

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The total number of notices filed today for the MAR 2020. contract month is represented by 24 contract(s) FOR 120,000 oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in MAR we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 3995 x 5,000 oz = 19,975,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAR.( 375) and the number of notices served upon today 24 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the MAR/2019 contract month: 3995 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of MAR (375)- number of notices served upon today (24) x 5000 oz equals 21,730,000 oz of silver standing for the MAR contract month.

WE GAINED 18 CONTRACTS OR 90,000 OZ WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND

 

 

 

 

 

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN:  THE COMEX IS UNDER ASSAULT FOR BOTH PHYSICAL GOLD AND SILVER WITH SILVER IN THE LEAD BY FAR. DESPITE  MASSIVE RAIDS, LONGS CONTINUE WITH THEIR HUNT AT THE COMEX FOR PHYSICAL METAL.. IT WILL NOT BE LONG BEFORE WE WITNESS A COMMERCIAL FAILURE..STAY TUNED..WE WITNESSED CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING IN SILVER TODAY AND AN ATTEMPTED BANKER SHORT COVERING IN GOLD WITH ZERO SUCCESS.

 

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME: 111,663 CONTRACTS //extremely high

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 170,048 CONTRACTS..,

 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 170,048 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 850 million  OZ  121% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

 

end

NPV for Sprott

 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV RISES TO -0.02% ((MARCH 17/2020)

2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV  RISES TO -1.64% to NAV:   MAR 17/2020 )

Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ 0.02%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 13.20 TRADING 12.92///DISCOUNT 6.24

 

END

 

 

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

MARCH 17/WITH GOLD UP $37.60: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.75 TONNES FROM GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 929.84 TONNES

MARCH  16/WITH GOLD DOWN $30.00/ A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 12.59 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 931.59 TONNES

MARCH 13//WITH GOLD DOWN $73.60: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 9.02 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD FROM THE GLD//

INVENTORY RESTS AT 944.18 TONNES

MARCH 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $55.05 TODAY:  NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/953.26 TONNES

 

MAR 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.95?/A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 10.53 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 953.26 TONNES

MARCH 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.25//A HUGE 8.00 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD DEPOSIT INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 963.79

MARCH 9//WITH GOLD UP $1.50 : NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 955.60 TONNES

March 6/WITH GOLD UP $6.25 A MASSIVE 21.37 PAPER TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 955.60 TONNES

MARCH 5/WITH GOLD UP $25.40//NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 934.23 TONNES

MARCH 4//WITH GOLD DOWN 1 DOLLAR: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.23 TONNES//

MARCH 3//WITH GOLD UP 48.55 TODAY; NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.23 TONNES

MARCH 2//WITH GOLD UP $27.00// no change in gold inventory at the gld//inventory remains  at 934.23 tonness

FEB 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $73.00 WE LOST NO GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS 934.23 TONNES

FEB 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.45: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.86 TONNES FROM THE GLD

FEB 26./WITH GOLD DOWN  TODAY/ GOLD INVENTORY INCREASES BY 6.15 TONNES//GLD INVENTORY AT 640.09 TONNES

FEB 24/with gold up $28.40//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 933.94 TONNES

FEB 21/WITH GOLD UP $28.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A HUGE PAPER DEPOSIT OF:2.34 TONNES   //INVENTORY RESTS AT 933.94 TONNES

FEB 20/WITH GOLD UP $9.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A HUGE 1.76 TONNES OF GOLD DEPOSIT//INVENTORY RESTS AT 931.60 TONNES

FEB 19/WITH GOLD UP $8.25 TODAY//A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 5.85 TONNES//GOLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 929.84 TONES

FEB 18. WITH GOLD UP $17.00//A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.76 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 923.99 TONNES

FEB 14/WITH GOLD UP $6.80 NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 922.23 TONNES

FEB 13/WITH GOLD UP $8.00 TODAY:NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 922.23 TONNES

FEB 12/WITH GOLD UP $1.80 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 6.15 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 922.23 TONNES

FEB 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.30 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 916.08 TONNES

FEB 10/WITH GOLD UP $6.10 TODAY:A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.17 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 916.08 TONNES

FEB 7/WITH GOLD UP $3.20 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS THIS WEEKEND AT; 914.91 TONNES

FEB 6/WITH GOLD UP $8.80: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.33 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.91 TONNES

FEB 4//WITH GOLD DOWN $26.10: A VERY STRANGE PHENOMENA: A MONSTROUS DEPOSIT OF 9.38 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.58 TONNES

FEB 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.40 TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE: A TINY WITHDRAWAL OF .29 TONNES OF GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 903.21 TONNES( TO PAY FOR FEES LIKE STORAGE INSURANCE ETC)

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

MARCH 17/2020/Inventory rests tonight at 929.84 tonnes

*IN LAST 780 TRADING DAYS: -7.54 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD

*LAST 680 TRADING DAYS;+ 158.59. TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

MARCH 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY; A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.735 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV INVENTORY: INVENTORY RESTS AT 353.203 MILLION OZ///

MARCH 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 177 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESETS AT 356.938 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 13//WITH SILVER DOWN 155 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.893 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 356.938 MILLION OZ;

MARCH 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 77 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.119 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 359.828 MILLION OZ

MARCH 11/SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS:  A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF .467 MILLION OZ AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 360.947 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.414 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 9/NO CHANGE IN INVENTORY LEVELS: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.414 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 6//WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.414 MILLION OZ

MARCH 5//WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY; A SMALL WITHDRAWAL DUE TO FEES ETC//INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 361.414 MILLION OZ..

MARCH 4/SILVER SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.880 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 3/WITH SILVER UP 44 CENTS//A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A LOSS OF 5.75 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV../INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.880 MILLION OZ

MARCH 2//WITH SILVER UP 18 CENTS//NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV..INVENTORY RESTS AT 367.632 MILLION OZ//

FEB 28/ WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS: a loss of 1.867 million oz//inventory rests at 367.632 million oz

FEB 27/WITH SILVER DOWN TODAY: A STRONG GAIN OF 747000 OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV

FEB 26\WITH SILVER DOWN TODAY,A HUGE GAIN OF 5.319 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 368.752 MILLION OZ

FEB 24/WITH SILVER UP 35 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.433 TONNES

FEB 21//WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.433 TONNES

FEB 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.433 TONNES

FEB 19/WITH SILVER UP 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.433 MILLION OZ//

FEB 18/. WITH SILVER UP 42 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.433 MILLION OZ.

FEB 14/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 746,000 FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.433 MILLION OZ.

FEB 13/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 364.179 MILLION OZ/

FEB 12//WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 364.179 MILLION OZ/

FEB 11/ WITH SILVER DOWN 19 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.166 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 364.179 MILLION OZ//

FEB 10/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF //INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.013 MILLION OZ//

FEB 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 701,000//INVENTORY RESTS THIS WEEKEND AT 363.013 MILLION OZ//

FEB 6//WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY:A SMALL  CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 154,000 OZ AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 362.312 MILLION OZ// AND GENERALLY THIS IS TO PAY FOR FEES LIKE INSURANCE/STORAGE

FEB 4//WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY//SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 362.466 MILLION OZ//

FEB 3/WITH SILVER DOWN 30 CENTS TODAY; A SMALL DEPOSIT OF 560,000 OZ INTO SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 362.466 MILLION OZ/

 

MARCH 17.2020:

SLV INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT  353.203 MILLION OZ.

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

END

 

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 0.52/ and libor 6 month duration 0.84

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: + .32

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 0.55%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 0.82

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.27

end

 

 

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

Important Notice Regarding Our Services At This Time Of Unprecedented Demand

GoldCore remain open for business and we like most mints,
refineries and dealers continue to experience record demand.In light of the unprecedented demand for precious metals and significant disruptions to logistical networks as borders and nations are closed in national lock-downs, we have taken the following decisions and actions:◆ All new order deliveries will be held in our secure vaults and delivered as soon as is feasible when transport systems return to normal. There may be delays in the delivery of existing orders
◆ Our minimum orders have been increased to $5,000
◆ Maximum credit card transactions have been reduced to $10,000
◆ Silver bullion coins are currently unavailable for delivery or storage.
Clients may purchase silver bars (100 oz and 1,000 oz) in Secure Storage and switch to silver coins when they become available again. Bar availability is becoming limited
◆ Online trading may be suspended in the coming days and be replaced by  clients having to trade on the phone
◆ We will only be buying coins and bars from clients who have their assets stored in GoldCore Secure Storage with us for the foreseeable future
◆ Globally premiums on gold and silver coins and bars are set to increase on the buy and sell side
◆ We will buy silver bullion coins at 10% over spot and silver bars (100 oz) at 7% over spot and silver bars (1,000 oz) at spot. This is subsequent to change in the coming days.Our offices have been closed to visitors since last week but our team are working hard and are here to assist you with your precious metal needs.We are sorry that we have had to introduce these measures and we hope that they are short term. They are due to significant demand and increasing logistical, financial and systemic challenges in the EU and globally that are beyond our control.On behalf of all the staff of GoldCore and myself, we wish you and your families good health in these trying days.

Best regards,

Stephen Flood
GoldCore CEO

Watch interview here

GOLD PRICES (USD, GBP & EUR – AM/ PM LBMA Fix)

16-Mar-20 1504.65 1487.70, 1223.28 1210.54 & 1346.36 1338.93
13-Mar-20 1588.15 1562.80, 1258.61 1248.83 & 1422.66 1407.30
12-Mar-20 1636.65 1570.70, 1284.28 1246.35 & 1457.11 1410.96
11-Mar-20 1662.50 1653.75, 1284.78 1279.01 & 1468.65 1462.25
10-Mar-20 1657.40 1655.70, 1269.40 1273.23 & 1460.00 1455.86
09-Mar-20 1676.60 1672.50, 1280.75 1272.94 & 1469.04 1462.10
06-Mar-20 1687.00 1683.65, 1296.80 1290.85 & 1490.13 1484.31
05-Mar-20 1647.45 1659.60, 1274.47 1284.70 & 1474.63 1482.69
04-Mar-20 1644.80 1641.85, 1286.73 1281.63 & 1475.06 1477.83
03-Mar-20 1599.05 1615.50, 1249.98 1260.25 & 1438.03 1446.03

Receive Our Award Winning Market Updates In Your Inbox – Sign Up Here

 

Mark O’Byrne
Executive Director

 

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

Dave Kranzler explains the huge disconnect between paper and physical gold.

(Dave Kranzler/IRD/GATA)

Dave Kranzler: Extreme disconnect between paper and physical gold

 Section: 

By Dave Kranzler
Investment Research Dynamics, Denver
Monday, March 16, 2020

The Western central banks, led by the Bank for International Settlements, are operating to push the prices of gold and silver as low as possible. It’s a highly motivated effort to remove the proverbial canary from the coal mine before it dies. A soaring price of gold signals to the world that the central banks have lost control of their fiat currency, debt-induced profligacy. …

… 

The signs of massive intervention abounded last week: record levels of PNT and EFP transactions; aggressive interventionary gold swap transactions by the BIS in January/February (per the monthly BIS statement of operations) and presumably this month as well; and a big physical dump of gold last Thursday at the p.m. London gold price fix, which knocked down the gold price. These opaque central bank operations thereby triggered even more paper selling on the Comex. …

… For the remainder of the commentary:

https://investmentresearchdynamics.com/extreme-disconnect-between-paper-…

* * *

end

Ronan Manly collectedly states that the selling of gold was not margin call but as I have indicated in the comex report, nothing but a massive increase in short comex issuance and ex. for physicals by the bankers.

(Manly/Bullionstar/GATA)

Ronan Manly: Margin-call rationale for gold’s plunge doesn’t fit facts

 Section: 

By Ronan Manly
Bullion Star, Singapore
Monday, March 16, 2020

… It’s surprising to many that the gold price has turned back twice in the last two weeks from breaking out above the U.S. $1,700 level — all in an environment of collapsing stock markets, general market panic, end-of-the-world scenarios, and now a U.S. national emergency.

Mainstream media reporters have rolled out and regurgitated the usual margin-call explanation claiming that unnamed “traders and investors” have had to “sell gold” to meet margin calls on their leveraged bets across other asset classes.

While there are many problems with this explanation (simplistic, lacking in evidence, fails to discuss the role of gold as collateral, cited every day during three weeks when stocks rose as well as fell, etc.), the bigger problem is that these reporters do not address the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s positioning of gold futures reports, nor the role bullion banks play in continually shorting the gold market and triggering stops and covering short positions, nor most importantly, the structural flaws in the actual entire gold price discovery process. …

… 

 

https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/ronan-manly/will-gold-be-the-last-man-…

end

Commercial Paper has seized and thus the reason that the Fed bailout out this industry this morning

(Bloomberg)//GATA

Key source of corporate cash seizing up amid credit market rout

 Section: 

By Jennifer Surane, Paula Seligson, Alex Harris, and Liz McCormick
Bloomberg News
Monday, March 16, 2020

A corner of the financial system that provides corporate America with short-term IOUs to buy inventory or make payrolls is seizing up, triggering a scramble for cash elsewhere and fueling speculation that the Federal Reserve will intervene.

In the $1.13 trillion commercial paper market, yields over risk-free rates have surged to levels last seen during the 2008 financial crisis. The strains are causing companies to draw down on backup credit lines, according to people with knowledge of the situation.

The longer the commercial paper market remains stressed, the more companies will look to tap credit lines, increasing the risk that banks will need to raise funds themselves, Bank of America Corp. strategists Mark Cabana and Olivia Lima wrote in a March 13 note. Cabana said the Fed needs to start buying commercial paper to unclog the market. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-15/key-source-of-corpora…

* * *

END

CHRIS POWELL…Sec Treasurer of GATA..

a must read…

(GATA) As infinite money chases collapsing production, gold is on call

Submitted by cpowell on 03:45PM ET Tuesday, March 17, 2020. Section: Daily Dispatches

12:02p ET Tuesday, March 17, 202

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

A few observations on the turmoil in the financial system.

1) Because of the virus epidemic, economic production is being sharply curtailed around the world and likely will remain sharply curtailed for some time.

2) Accordingly, personal incomes are being sharply curtailed too, so there is talk of “helicopter money” to replace incomes. But “helicopter money” won’t restore production, just support demand and reduce personal debt defaults.

3) Every hour billions or trillions in dollars and other currencies are being created and thrown at problems here, there, and everywhere, even as production declines. This may evoke Kipling’s observation from “The Gods of the Copybook Headings”:

But though we had plenty of money,

There was nothing our money could buy.

His poem, written a century ago, is an even better reprimand of the current age:

http://www.kiplingsociety.co.uk/poems_copybook.htm

4) Corporate debts are becoming unservicable as business has been suspended or cut way back. The Federal Reserve today undertook to assume many of these debts.

5) Negative interest rates, common elsewhere, now are coming to the United States too, so the cost of holding dollars may exceed the cost of holding monetary metals. The disparagement of gold long has been that it doesn’t pay interest. Of course gold does pay interest for financial institutions in a position to lend it, just as government money has paid interest, so this disparagement has always been false. But now government currencies not only fail to pay interest but are openly devalued when banked.

6) All this would seem to foretell inflation, debt defaults, bankruptcies, currency devaluation — and gold and silver revaluation, either by government devaluation policy or by the markets themselves when the paper market for the metals is overtaken by the physical market. The recent sudden disparity between metal futures prices and physical coin and bullion prices again indicates that there has been massive government intervention in the futures markets and that futures prices are illusions.

7) The success of a system of infinite money requires infinite commodity price suppression to defend government currencies. Gold price suppression has been central bank policy since the London Gold Pool of the 1960s. But not only are government currencies becoming harder to defend amid the dislocations caused by the virus epidemic, governments no longer may want to defend their currencies so much. They want to reflate asset valuations. But even before the virus epidemic, equities and bonds already were highly overvalued by traditional measures, and how can they be worth as much as they were now that world production is declining? Only devaluation of currencies can accomplish reflation.

8) As has been noted by economists many times, rising monetary metals prices can help governments devalue their currencies and the economy’s debts. See the Scottish economist Peter Millar’s 2006 analysis of this issue:

http://gata.org/node/4843

9) But governments will pay a big cost for obtaining help from the monetary metals — the cost of long-term competition for their currencies and maybe even the cost of the return of market economies and limited government.

Whatever happens, may it be done in the open, for all to see and understand, and after decades of official lies, rigging, and corruption, fiat justitia ruat caelum.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

iii) Other physical stories:

https://www.jsmineset.com/2020/03/17/masking-the-drop-in-open-interest/

 

Masking The Drop In Open Interest

 

Posted March 17th, 2020 at 9:17 AM (CST) by J. Johnson & filed under General Editorial.

 

Great and Wonderful Happy St. Patty’s Day Folks,

 

Golds value remains inside yesterday’s trading range with the price at $1,470.80 down $15.70 after dipping to $1,465.60 with the ICE rally high at $1,519.30. Silver is still leading the declines with the trade at $12.150, down 66.10 cents and at its low of $12.11 with the ICE high to beat at $13.230. The new quarter’s US Dollar trade (June) now has a value of 99.205, up 105.3 points after reaching up to 99.395 with the low at 98.105. Of course all this happened already, before 5am pst, the Comex open, the London close, after the G7 threatened the world that it will survive even without human participation, after Nasdaq, Dow, S&P Futures surged limit-up but not locked, after fast food restaurants close their dining areas and playgrounds (rats!), and after the slow minded are told not to call 911 because they can’t find toilet paper. You will survive, Cowboy Up and just use a corn cobb.

 

In Venezuela, Gold’s value now sits at 14,689.62 Bolivar, showing a gain of 70.92 with Silver at 121.348 Bolivar, it too gaining 1.248. Argentina’s currency now has Gold’s value priced at 92,615.78 Peso’s proving a gain 680.86 overnight with Silver gaining 9.591 A-Peso’s priced at 765.064. In Turkey, the Lira has Gold’s value pegged at 9,552.16 showing a gain of 187.31 with Silver’s price at 78.9041 proving a gain of 1.9642 in T-Lira value. All this is definitely a good sign to see, but we need to get past Thursday’s Tripling Witches.

 

March Silver’s Delivery Demands now sit at 375 fully paid for contracts waiting for receipts, showing a drop in count of 285 contracts that either got receipts, entry/exited a spread, or were sent to London so they can be dumped here again (or?), after yesterday’s trading range swung between $14.885 and $11.885 with the closing price at $12.772 and after the Volume reached 103 before the close. So far this morning Mr. Resolute has yet to appear, in fact there are no trades posted at all. Maybe he too is waiting for the Tripling Witches attempt to force the prices lower to prove how good they are at casting a bearish spell using paper instead of a wand. The IMF is at the ready, and if they are to continue on, we could see Silver for free by the end of the week. Silver’s Overall Open Interest continues to collapse as the prices keep dropping with the old school view; if Prices and Open Interest drop together, the Longs are exiting. I’ll continue to leave room for that belief (barely), at the same time, imo this market is run by Algo’s not traders. The Algo’s number one job is to remove the old ideas (emotions) with their micro-second trading rhetoric to prove how wrong a trader’s emotional responses are. The Open Interest now sits at 168,978 Overnighters proving another 3,681 contracts (or spreads) exited the trade.

 

March Gold’s Physical Demand Count now sits at 64 fully paid for contracts, proving a gain of 13 with yesterday’s trading range between $1,569.10 and $1,452.10 with the adjusted closing price at $1,485.90 and with a total Volume of 192. So far this morning we have a Volume of 2 up on the board with a trading range between $1,471.40 and $1,469.30 with the last Buy/Sell at the high. Gold’s Overall Open Interest is also collapsing as yesterday’s activity will prove a drop in count of 12,552 Obligations leaving today’s starting total at 573,337 Overnighters.

 

The idea of Algo’s trading instead of people has been discussed many times already, but not in depth as to how they can control the direction behind a mask. Once again, I do not know if this is a certainty because I do not have the Algo data like certain individuals inside an element have, or our regulators, it is only a running thesis. If a certain element was in a spread trade, say to the tune of 100,000 positions, it would be easy to manipulate the price against the emotions of human trading. Let’s look at Silver for instance, and in between the Life of Contract High in Paper at 246,078 that occurred on March’s Option Expiration Day (Feb 25th) to now at 168,978. If one was to key the Algo (and its friends) to drop the prices hard, all the algo would have to do is sell all their longs in the spread and all at once, causing a hard drop in price overtaking any buying and changing the dynamics from positive to negative. Then the same algo system would be instructed to buy back their sold positions slowly, in order to re-enter the spread throughout the day, as those that were on the wrong side are forced out with a loss.

 

At the same time the algo is buying back into their long positions (re-entering) of the spread trade, the Short side (of the spread) would be buying back and lightening up the spread count which in turn winds up masking the drop in Open Interest. Like we are seeing in Silver’s Paper Count which lost 77,100 pieces of controlling paper these past 15 trading days. The algos all signal one another, which has removed the text messages and barroom discussions many were caught doing before the algos setup their signals.

 

We still believe in Silver and Gold, they will be used to reboot the system, all it takes is surviving the BS till the reboot. So, hang in there, keep the attitudes positive, keep a smile on your face (behind the mask), and as always …

 

Stay Strong!

Jeremiah Johnson

JeremiahJohnson@cableone.net

END

Robert to me:

Coronavirus: UK government advises against all global travel with ‘immediate effect’ | The Independent

 

Robert:
“Here we go, lock down by country on global travel 🧳. Forget business travelers or tourists for this spring. There is no way to properly plan business travel or frankly any business for the next foreseeable future. This will continued lead to all manner supply chain disruptions as buyers cannot or will not travel and goods will not be ordered and thus will not be made. Business deals will suffer as not all negotiations can or should be by phone.
The airlines are toast!”
Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early MONDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 7.0389/ GETTING VERY DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  7.0390   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 5.43 POINTS OR 0.34%

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 200.16 POINTS OR 0.87%

 

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 9.49 POINTS OR 0.06%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL RED EXCEPT SPAIN/

 

 

 

USA dollar index UP TO 99.30/Euro FALLS TO 1.1009

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. +.01/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 107.85/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 29.12 and Brent: 29.73

3f Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE DOWN/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO -.39%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 2.39% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 1.02%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 2.78: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO : 3.11

3k Gold at $1485.50 silver at: 12.40   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 55/100 in roubles/dollar) 75.06

3m oil into the 29 dollar handle for WTI and 29 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 106.85 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9606 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0551 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to 0.39%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 0.78% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 1.39%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 6.4912../SOVEREIGN TURKEY WILL GO BANKRUPT!

Total Pukefest: Futures Soar Limit Up, Crash, Then Soar Again

The thing about the VIX at 80 – a level it did not hit even during the financial crisis – is that nobody has seen a market as volatile as like this.

Case in point: the rollercoaster in overnight futures alone may have bankrupted an unknown number of traders: after another historic crash on Monday which saw US stocks plunge most since Black Monday 1987, futures initially soared as much as the 3.9% limit up band, before plunging straight down to slightly red on the session(!) after the European open, before surging once again.

Needless to say, anyone who had margin positions on was likely stopped out, while CNBC’s perpetual permabull Jim Cramer had a nervous breakdown.

 

Jim Cramer

@jimcramer

The futures are a total joke. Don’t even look at them. You can’t have a bull market at 3:30 a.m. and have it end by 7 a.m.

The catalyst for the selloff was fresh signs of stress in short-term funding markets, where as we warned yesterday nothing has been fixed despite the Fed’s multi-trillion waterpistol, and where the premium for getting dollars against the euro and yen exploded to the widest since 2011.

And with the dollar shortage getting worse again, the dollar index continued to surge while Treasuries retreated with gold after yields plummeted almost a quarter percentage point on Monday.

European bonds tracked the US 10Y, while the Stoxx Europe 600 Index swung from limit up to a big loss before recovering, despite a harrowing plunge in the German ZEW expectations, which cratered to -49.5, the lowest since the European sovereign debt crisis.

Equities in Asia endured a similarly volatile session, and markets in the region mixed with Jakarta Composite and Taiwan’s Taiex Index falling, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 and Japan’s Topix Index rising. The Topix gained 2.6%, with Phyz Holdings Inc and Raksul Inc rising the most. The Shanghai Composite Index retreated 0.3%, with HNA Innovation and Hunan Huasheng posting the biggest slides. Australian stocks posted their biggest jump since 1997 while benchmarks in Hong Kong and China saw more muted moves. The yuan weakened, with economists starting to forecast a contraction in China’s economy for the current quarter.

On Monday, US stocks crashed into the closing bell on Monday after President Trump warned of a possible recession, with economic disruption from the coronavirus potentially extending into summer. In the latest attempts to stem the spread of the virus, Hong Kong was set to issue its second-highest travel alert for residents and extend quarantine measures for people coming from abroad. The Philippines became the first country to shut its financial markets, though it aims to reopen Thursday.

“A bear market does not preclude rallies,” said Eleanor Creagh, market strategist at Saxo Capital Markets. “In fact, the biggest rallies can be in bear markets — erratic swings are exacerbated by the present high-volatility regime and strained liquidity conditions. With VIX remaining significantly above the long-term equilibrium, alarm bells are still sounding and traders should be wary of relief rallies.”

Meanwhile, after the Federal Reserve and other central banks dramatically stepped up efforts to stabilize capital markets and liquidity, traders have been looking to fiscal authorities for action. While Congress is still working on a package that reportedly could be around $750 billion, New Zealand announced a NZ$12.1 billion ($7.3 billion) plan and Australia’s government is preparing to scale up just days after announcing a A$17.6 billion ($10.7 billion) initiative.

In FX, as noted above, the dollar rallied against everything as cross-currency basis swaps kept getting more expensive. The pound fell for a sixth day, the longest losing streak since May, as concern lingered that the U.K. is slow to counter the coronavirus threat even after Prime Minister Boris Johnson escalated the nation’s response to the outbreak. Gilts fell for a third day. Kiwi dollar outperforms its Aussie peer, with pair edging closer to parity after the New Zealand government announced fiscal spending worth 4% of GDP to combat the economic impact of the coronavirus. The Australian dollar hit an 11-year low ahead of a speech by Governor Philip Lowe on Thursday, when the Reserve Bank is set to announce more policy steps.

In rates, US Treasuries fell, underperforming bunds; European semi-core debt extended recent declines led by France, while ECB conducts extraordinary liquidity operation; Swedish bonds rallied after the Riksbank announced additional QE.

In commodities, West Texas Intermediate crude rose 2.2% to $29.34 a barrel, while gold decreased 2.9% to $1,470.09 an ounce as the dollar surge continued.

Looking at the day ahead the data highlights will include employment data from the UK for January and the ZEW survey from Germany for March. Meanwhile from the US, there’ll be retail sales, industrial production and capacity utilisation for February, business inventories and JOLTS job openings for January, and the NAHB housing market index for March. Finally, though it feels somewhat peripheral given the current international situation, there’ll be a further 4 US states holding primary votes today on the Democratic side: Florida, Illinois, Ohio and Arizona. Between them, they hold a further 577 delegates, which is nearly 15% of the total up for grabs. Former Vice President Biden is the favourite to win in all 4 states on both FiveThirtyEight’s models and PredictIt, giving him the chance to further extend his delegate lead over Senator Bernie Sanders. For context, all four states went for Hillary Clinton over Bernie Sanders in the 2016 cycle.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 1.2% to 2,376.00
  • STOXX Europe 600 -2.5% to 277.55
  • MXAP up 0.3% to 131.14
  • MXAPJ down 0.1% to 428.37
  • Nikkei up 0.06% to 17,011.53
  • Topix up 2.6% to 1,268.46
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.9% to 23,263.73
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.3% to 2,779.64
  • Sensex up 0.3% to 31,490.23
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 5.8% to 5,293.41
  • Kospi down 2.5% to 1,672.44
  • Brent Futures up 1.4% to $30.47/bbl
  • Gold spot down 1.8% to $1,486.46
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.4% to 98.45
  • German 10Y yield rose 4.3 bps to -0.418%
  • Euro down 0.5% to $1.1129
  • Brent Futures up 1.4% to $30.47/bbl
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 37.6 bps to 1.987%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 5.6 bps to 0.897%

Top Overnight News

  • Regulators in France, Italy and Belgium banned short selling in some stocks for the day. France’s AMF halted such trades in 92 stocks, while Italy’s Consob blocked the transactions in 20 and Belgium’s FSMA imposed a similar restriction. Spain went further, telling market participants late Monday they couldn’t bet on share declines for a month
  • Eight giant U.S. banks said they would access the Federal Reserve’s discount window, in a move meant to remove the longstanding stigma of using it, as the financial system comes under mounting pressure from the coronavirus pandemic
  • The Bank of Japan vowed to consider additional action if the economic impact from the virus outbreak gets worse
  • The euro area’s gigantic bailout fund is exploring how it can use its reserves to cushion the impact of a virus-induced recession, in a move that could help reassure markets after a spike in borrowing costs for the region’s most vulnerable economies
  • The European Union gave Spain the OK to spend its way through the coronavirus crisis. But the left-wing government in Madrid is unsure whether to take full advantage.The socialist economy minister is trying to stop the deficit blowing out, while a former spending watchdog is urging her to open the taps to stop the economy collapsing. The cabinet meets Tuesday to thrash it out

Asia-Pac equity markets traded mixed and US equity futures hit limit up overnight as stock markets attempted to nurse the recent heavy losses that resulted to the worst day on Wall St. since 1987 and a near 3000-point decline in the DJIA for its largest point drop on record, despite the Fed’s recent emergency measures. The tone in Asia improved from the open spurring mixed views regarding a potential capitulation after the recent sell-off and some murmurs of a dead-cat bounce, although there were further supportive measures including a NZD 12.1bln economic package from New Zealand and the US House passing a revised coronavirus bill, as well as efforts from the Trump administration for an additional measure targeting airlines and small businesses. ASX 200 (+5.8%) outperformed after a rebound from support at the 5000 level to recoup some of the prior day’s record losses of 9.7% and eventually post its largest intraday gain since 2008 with miners and financials front running the recovery, while Nikkei 225 (+0.1%) fluctuated between gains and losses with sentiment flimsy alongside an indecisive currency. Hang Seng (+0.9%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.9%) were both positive in early trade but then reversed course/trimmed gains as early optimism across the region slightly faded and following further liquidity inaction by the PBoC, although reports have suggested the central bank may still reduce the Loan Prime Rate this week even though it opted to maintain rates in yesterday’s Medium-term Lending Facility. Finally, 10yr JGBs were initially lower as they tracked the recent selling in USTs but with some of the downside later reversed after prices found a platform around 152.50 and with the BoJ also in the market today under a special operation for JPY 200bln of JGBs with 3yr-10yr maturities.

Top Asian News

  • Abe Taps Hitachi Executive Nakamura for BOJ Policy Board
  • Singapore’s Largest Companies Raise Female Board Participation
  • Singapore Faces Bigger Contraction as Malaysia Shuts Borders
  • Thailand Confirms Plan to Shut Schools, Delay Holidays on Virus

Choppy trade in the equity sphere [Euro Stoxx 50 +1.0%] following on from a mixed APAC session, as what seemed like a sentiment turnaround subsided in early EU trade – although reports that US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin is seeing a USD 850bln package later induced a modest bounce off lows. Major bourses are mixed with Spain’s IBEX (+2.4%) the standout outperformer amid after Spain banned short-selling for a month amid the virus-induced selloff. DAX 30 cash briefly dipped below 8500 before trimming some losses, albeit remain some way off its 9145 session high. CAC (-0.6%) failed to glean much support after AMF regulator’s announcement of a 24hr short-selling ban on 92 stocks vs. Spain’s carpet ban, although France’s measure seems more of a cushion against losses as opposed to a deterrent. Sectors are mixed with no clear reflection of the risk tone, with energy and material benefitting from the overnight rebound in respective complexes. In terms of individual movers. Iliad (+18.0%) tops the gains in the Stoxx 600 post-earnings in which anticipated coronavirus losses are expected to be less severe than feared. Elsewhere, Pandora (-2.9%) withdrew guidance amid the outbreak and noted that China since Jan LFL sales fell 70-80% on a YY basis.

Top European News

  • Global Deaths Top 7,000; San Francisco Shuts Down: Virus Update
  • Europe Weighs Using Bailout Fund Bazooka In Virus Crisis
  • Battered European Stocks Stage a Comeback Tour: Markets Live
  • Compass Drops After Profit Warning; MS Notes Sharp Slowdown

In FX, the Dollar is firmer across the board after losing momentum during Monday’s global stock market swoon, with the DXY firmly back on the 98.000 handle and breaching resistance ahead of the next big figure (like February 13’s 98.810 high) amidst more reports of the White House mulling a big aid package (Usd850 bn or perhaps more). However, safer-havens are clawing back some lost ground as the mood remains extremely fragile on COVID-19 factors and ahead of US data (retail sales and ip) that could highlight more of the economic contagion like yesterday’s NY Fed manufacturing survey.

  • AUD/NZD – Minutes from the RBA’s March policy meeting did not offer anything new in terms of forward guidance overnight, but the Aussie is on the defensive in advance of Thursday’s new measures from the Central Bank that could include QE. Aud/Usd is slipping back towards 0.6000 and Aud/Nzd remains south of 1.0100 even though Nzd/Usd has retreated through 0.6000 and the Kiwi only got a fleeting fillip from Nzd12.1 bn fiscal stimulus in similar vein to the Aussie after Government and RBA cash/liquidity injections.
  • GBP/EUR – A relatively upbeat UK labour and wage report has been dismissed as too old or irrelevant in the context of nCoV, as the Pound weakens across the board towards 1.2100 in Cable terms and sub-0.9100 on the Eur/Gbp cross. Indeed, Sterling is marginally underperforming vs the single currency despite a dire ZEW survey that has pushed Eur/Usd below 1.1100 (close to the 200 DMA) and eyeing Monday’s session trough just under 1.1050.
  • CHF/JPY – The Franc and Yen are both off best levels vs the Greenback, but retaining an underlying bid within 0.9458-0.9554 and 105.88-107.18 respective ranges in advance of the SNB quarterly review and following ramped ETF purchases from the BoJ today.
  • CAD/SEK/NOK – The Loonie is trying to stop the rot after losing 1.4000+ status against its US counterpart and tumbling to new multi-year lows not far from 1.4100, while the Swedish Crown is weaker vs the Euro inches from 11.0000 in wake of the Riskbank unleashing QE, finally and lagging its Scandi peer the is benefiting from a degree of consolidation and comparative stabilisation in crude prices, albeit choppy and still trending lower.

In commodities, WTI and Brent front-month futures have trimmed overnight gains during early EU trade, with the latter dipping into negative territory as the sentiment/consolidation seen in the APAC session abated as the underlying themes persist.  WTI Apr’20 futures have extended losses below the USD 30/bbl mark, having earlier briefly breached the level to the upside, with the next pertinent support level at the YTD low around USD 27.40/bbl. Meanwhile, Brent May’20 underperforms its WTI counterpart given the OPEC rhetoric surrounding the global benchmark, with the front-month contract back below USD 30/bbl and just off its YTD lows at ~USD 29.50/bbl vs. intraday high of USD 31.20/bbl. Meanwhile, the spread between the two contracts continue to narrow and currently stands at under USD 1/bbl vs. ~USD 1.30/bbl at yesterday’s close. Elsewhere, spot gold continues to bear the brunt of liquidating positions as investors convert to cash and remain on the sidelines. The yellow metal trades firmly below 1500/oz (200 DMA ~1498/oz) ahead of the 50WMA (1462/oz) and yesterday’s 1450/oz low. Similar losses are seen across other precious metals with Silver approaching 12/oz after fleetingly dipping below the figure during yesterday’s trade. Copper prices unsurprisingly conform to the risk-turnaround as prices slide further below 2.5/lb and eyes USD 2.0/lb for barriers.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Retail Sales Advance MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.3%; Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM, est. 0.1%, prior 0.3%
  • 8:30am: Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas, est. 0.3%, prior 0.4%; Retail Sales Control Group, est. 0.4%, prior 0.0%
  • 9:15am: Industrial Production MoM, est. 0.4%, prior -0.3%; Capacity Utilization, est. 77.1%, prior 76.8%
  • 10am: Business Inventories, est. -0.1%, prior 0.1%;
  • 10am: JOLTS Job Openings, est. 6,400, prior 6,423;
  • 10am: NAHB Housing Market Index, est. 73, prior 74

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Also today we are going to start publishing a daily table and graph looking at new case growth of the virus in the main impacted countries around the world. The table will look at the last 5 days of % growth for each of the top 10 countries and where we were in % growth terms 14 days ago. We’ll refresh this at 5am every day and you’ll find it in the pdf link. At the moment new cases are growing at between 15-30% per day in the main European countries. If you’re looking for good news Korean cases have been growing at ‘only’ 0.9-1.5% over the last 5 days after being at c.14% daily growth two weeks ago.

For now though, it’s becoming clearer that the impact of the various Western World shutdowns will mean that at its peak the Covid-19 impact on the global economy will likely be worse than the peak of the GFC. It is also looking increasingly likely to linger well into the summer. Once you shut down economies, the hurdle rate to reopen them is pretty high. The good news is that the response from the authorities might eventually (but not yet) end up being greater too. It will need to be, because many individuals and businesses will risk losing their livelihoods as a result of this crisis. I suspect central banks will end up printing fresh money to hand to those most impacted. Because of the nature of this event there will unlikely be any moral hazard warnings, which will give the authorities the political capital to act. There are many longer-term implications if we go down that route but that’s a topic for another day.

It was another wild and historically significant day in financial markets yesterday with traders having to navigate further wild swings across different asset classes. In fact for the S&P 500, we haven’t seen a daily move of less than 1% either way all month. Indeed 12 of the last 16 trading sessions have now seen moves of at least 3% in either direction. Yesterday’s moves were yet another in this pattern, with trading halted at the open after the S&P fell through the -7% circuit breaker, before falling to just shy of the lows of the day (-11.41%) after trading restarted. The S&P 500 then recovered much of its losses to be down “only” -5.37% before closing at the lows of the day at -11.98%. This leaves the index down -29.53% since its peak less than 4 weeks ago. In terms of our worst days in history this ranked 3rd out of 23,161 since 1927 behind only 19 October 1987, down -20.47%, and 28 October 1929, down -12.94%. These are truly historical moments in the history of financial markets. 2020 will go alongside 1929, 1987 and 2008 in the text books of financial market panics.

The sell-off accelerated into the close after President Trump held a press conference where his tone was more sombre on the virus than it had been previously. The President urged Americans to practice social distancing and then warned that the economic impact could last well into the summer, as late as August. He also signalled that a recession was possible – a big admission for him. At the same time French President Macron said that EU borders would close from today for at least 30 days, and that French citizens should stay home in lockdown for 15 days starting midday today. I’m really not sure I’ll see anything like this again in my lifetime. It’s remarkable and global economies have effectively been put on war footing but without the usual intense war time economic activity.

We also heard more about the possibility of a coordinated response from the G7 yesterday. In a joint statement the G7 leaders said they would “do whatever is necessary” to support the global economy, in what is quickly becoming a common refrain. There was little else for now but it was a strong statement.

In the US Senate Democrats are preparing a new coronavirus aid package, with at least $750 billion in funding for increasing hospital capacity, unemployment insurance and other direct aid toward American households and businesses. This is a separate bill than the earlier aid package from the House, which provides sick pay, free testing, and emergency food aid for families that will soon be voted on in the Senate that already has President Trump’s approval. Senator Mitt Romney also backed the idea of cash stipends of $1000 to every American in order to help people meet obligations and spur economic activity. This effectively amounts to helicopter money so we’re getting closer to this.

Over in Europe, the Eurogroup announced that they “have, so far, decided fiscal measures of about 1% of GDP, on average, for 2020 to support the economy, in addition to the impact of automatic stabilisers, which should work fully. They added that “we have, so far, committed to provide liquidity facilities of at least 10% of GDP, consisting of public guarantee schemes and deferred tax payments. These figures could be much larger going forward”. My colleague Mark Wall notes that this first wave response is basically in line with what he was expecting in his note from Sunday night we mentioned yesterday. There is likely more to come as there are increased chances of the ECB’s additional EUR 1.2 trillion (12% of GDP) in TLTRO3 liquidity being used, and that the package as a whole is not capped and “could be much larger going forward”.

Following yesterday’s decline, futures on the S&P 500 (+3.66%) and Nasdaq (+3.36%) are trading higher this morning after hitting their respective limit ups. Asian markets are trading mixed amidst continued volatility with the Nikkei (+0.20%) and Hang Seng (+1.18%) up while, the Shanghai Comp (+0.03%) is flat and the Kospi (-1.55%) is down. The ASX has just closed up +5.8% the largest gain since October 1987. Yields on 10y USTs are up +5.5bps to 0.776% and brent crude oil prices are up +2.40% this morning.

Overnight, one of the key stories is that the Philippines became the first country to shut its stock, bond and currency markets until further notice. Will this be the first in a trend? Meanwhile, New Zealand became the latest country to announce a fiscal package of NZD 12.1bn ($7.3bn), worth c. 4% of GDP, to counter the economic impact from the virus. Brazil also said overnight that it will inject BRL 150bn ($30bn) in to the economy with more than half of that amount earmarked to support the poor and elderly. Today, we are also likely to hear from the UK Chancellor Rishi Sunak on the measures he promised to deliver, during last week’s budget, to help companies and individuals pushed to the brink by the virus. So one to watch. On the monetary policy front the State Bank of Vietnam cut its refinance rate to 5% from 6%, and Japanese banks tapped $32bn from the Fed’s revamped swap lines in the first operation.

Back to yesterday and the VIX index surged to its highest closing level ever recorded as equities sold off into the US close. The vol index was up +24.86pts to 82.69, which puts it higher than the closing peak reached in November 2008, at the height of the financial crisis. Meanwhile credit spreads continued to widen massively. US IG and HY cash spreads were +26bps and +107bps wider with the European equivalents +15.4bps and +99bps wider. CDX HY and EUR Crossover widened +113bps and +100bps respectively.

Staying with fixed income, 10yr Treasury yields traded in a 23bps range after gapping lower after the Fed announcements Sunday night but ended up closing in the middle of it and -24.2bps lower. Sovereign debt sold off in Europe however, with yields on 10-year Italian debt closing above 2% for the first time since June, with the spread over bunds widening by a further +29.7bps to 2.63%, also their widest since June.

Airlines experienced some of the largest declines in equity markets yesterday, with the STOXX 600 Travel and Leisure index down -10.06% as it fell to its lowest level since October 2012. It comes as a number of major airlines have said they’ll be reducing the number of flights, with IAG, the owner of British Airways announcing that in April and May they’d be reducing capacity “by at least 75 per cent compared to the same period in 2019”. In terms of the individual movers, Tui fell -12.72%, recovering from an intraday low of -39.44%, following the previous day’s reports that it would apply for state aid guarantees and withdrew its guidance for FY 2020. Meanwhile Easyjet was down -19.32% (up from an intraday low of -32.77%) after the company said it wasn’t possible to provide guidance for the rest of FY20. Finally Reuters reported that the Italian government plans to renationalise the already bankrupt Alitalia as a planned sale has found no bidders.

Commodity markets provided their own headlines, with Brent Crude trading below $30 a barrel for the first time since 2016, closing at $30.05 down -11.23%. The impact of the oil moves were seen elsewhere, with the currencies of oil-producing nations suffering on the back of the moves. Indeed, the Norwegian Krone and the Canadian Dollar were the two worst-performing G10 currencies yesterday, falling -1.95% and -1.50% against the US dollar respectively. For energy stocks the picture was similarly dire, with the STOXX Oil & Gas index down -5.59% and at its lowest level since 1996, while the S&P 500 Energy industry grouping fell -13.63%.

Data releases have understandably taken a back seat to the coronavirus, though we did get the New York Fed’s Empire State manufacturing survey for March, which fell to -21.5 (vs. 3.0 expected), which was its lowest level since March 2009 and the largest monthly decline in the index on record. Sadly there wasn’t much optimism about the coming months either, with optimism about the six-month outlook now at 1.2, its lowest level since February 2009 .The responses for this survey were collected from March 2nd to 10th, so after concerns over the coronavirus had gone global.

To the day ahead now, and the data highlights will include employment data from the UK for January and the ZEW survey from Germany for March. Meanwhile from the US, there’ll be retail sales, industrial production and capacity utilisation for February, business inventories and JOLTS job openings for January, and the NAHB housing market index for March. Finally, though it feels somewhat peripheral given the current international situation, there’ll be a further 4 US states holding primary votes today on the Democratic side: Florida, Illinois, Ohio and Arizona. Between them, they hold a further 577 delegates, which is nearly 15% of the total up for grabs. Former Vice President Biden is the favourite to win in all 4 states on both FiveThirtyEight’s models and PredictIt, giving him the chance to further extend his delegate lead over Senator Bernie Sanders. For context, all four states went for Hillary Clinton over Bernie Sanders in the 2016 cycle.

end

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)TUESDAY MORNING/ MONDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 9.61 POINTS OR 0.34%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 200.16 POINTS OR 0.87%   /The Nikkei closed UP 9.47 POINTS OR 0.06%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 5.42%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 7.0389 /Oil UP TO 57.21 dollars per barrel for WTI and 64.13 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.0389 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0390 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED/CORONAVIRUS  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 C CHINA AFFAIRS

CHINA/ GLOBECORONAVIRUS//UPDATE

Your update through the night

(zerohedge)

 

But perhaps the biggest headline, which landed late last night, was certainly discouraging: The death toll in the US saw its largest daily jump yet on Monday. The US death toll climbed to 85, with more than 4,660 cases confirmed, according to Johns Hopkins. Worldwide, more than 182,424 coronavirus cases have been confirmed, along with 7,155 deaths, affecting at least 155 countries according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University.

 

But there was also positive news: Regeneron reported that tests for its “antibody-based” remedies for the coronavirus infection could be ready for the final round of clinical testing by the beginning of the summer, which could see a drug shipped by the end of the summer, according to CNBC’s Meg Tirrell.

Pfizer, meanwhile, announced it would partner with a Swiss biotech company to produce a vaccine using a technology similar to Moderna.

Reporting from Beijing, CNBC’s Eunice Yoon, reported that a Chinese trial for favipiravir, another antiviral designed to treat the virus, showed “promising” results.

Eunice Yoon

@onlyyoontv

researchers have completed clinical studies of , which shows promising clinical efficacy in treating novel pneumonia, head of China National Center for Biotechnology Development, said Tuesday. http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202003/17/WS5e708666a31012821727fcbd.html  @megtirrell @ScottGottliebMD

After Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said last night that he would push for an $840 billion economic rescue package for the administration’s third rescue bill, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin one-upped him in a leaked report to Politico’s Morning Playbook (which hits at around the time most US traders are beginning their pre-market research) claiming that he was pushing for an $850 billion package.

Jake Sherman

@JakeSherman

NEW … PLAYBOOK: MNUCHIN seeking $850 billion from Congress …

@united CEO: “The financial impact of this crisis on our industry is much worse than the stark downturn that we saw in the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks.”https://politi.co/2E8W3WO

Playbook

And Joe Biden announces he would select a female running mate.

politico.com

California Gov. Gavin Newsom yesterday ordered all bars, restaurants and wineries in the state closed, one day after Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti acted unilaterally to impose similar restrictions in LA. California, the largest state in the US which accounts for 1/5th of US GDP, also suspended its state legislature for the next month. New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy ordered residents in his state not to leave their houses between the hours of 8 pm and 5 am.

Restrictions have also been imposed by other states, including New York, Connecticut, Indiana, Maryland and others. in Connecticut, there have been whispers about a full quarantine and the call-up of national guard troops in the state.

With a hodgepodge of local authorities moving to combat the virus in their communities, more businesses and brands are ordering stores to close. After McDonald’s closed its dining rooms and play areas, fitness classes like SoulCycle and OrangeTheory have suspended all classes.

Finally, 8 US banks also got together overnight and accessed the discount window to try and “remove the stigma” as Steve Leisman reported in the midst of the central bank’s additional repo-market interventions.

In China, official data suggests the domestic outbreak is over. Across the country, 20 new cases were reported last night, 19 of whom were ‘travelers’ from abroad. Of course, any new arrivals to China will be herded into 14-day quarantines as Beijing tightens its borders, like everybody else.

At this point, much of the Balkans and Central Europe has shut its borders: Slovenia, Slovakia, Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic and a handful of others have instituted strict restrictions or all-out bans on non-citizen, non-resident travelers entering their borders. Last night, French President Emmanuel Macron shut down France and tightened borders as the EU declared that it would begin limiting travel into the Schengen Area.

Some other good news overnight: Swiss pharmaceutical company Roche has shipped some 400,000 tests. As drug trials continue at a breakneck pace in China and in the US, the Washington Post has published perhaps the most comprehensive investigation into the CDC’s failure to distribute tests. The story seems to suggest that the errors were largely made by CDC bureaucrats and Obama-administration holdovers, though that wasn’t WaPo’s angle.

Yesterday, the CDC confirmed that one of its employees had tested positive for the virus. On Tuesday, the WHO followed up by reporting that two of its staffers had tested positive.

Poland has become the latest government to confirm that at least one senior official has caught the virus. In the Philippines, the quarantine ordered for the island of Luzon, where roughly half the country’s 104 million people live, has created complications, including preventing health-care workers from getting home, and from getting to work.

Late last night, when President Trump blamed the “Chinese Virus” for hurting American businesses, we suspected that American liberals and the Chinese regime (two groups that have been oddly in sync as of late) would respond with fury.

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

The United States will be powerfully supporting those industries, like Airlines and others, that are particularly affected by the Chinese Virus. We will be stronger than ever before!

Individual epidemiologists warned the comment could strain relations with Beijing at a critical time…

Eric Feigl-Ding@DrEricDing

Calling it a “Chinese Virus” makes me incredibly sad. I’m a proud American (happen to be born in China), who is an American thru & thru. This global 🌎 virus knows no race, no creed, or ethnic origin. Let’s conquer together, not apart.🙏 https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1239685852093169664 

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

The United States will be powerfully supporting those industries, like Airlines and others, that are particularly affected by the Chinese Virus. We will be stronger than ever before!

The Chinese Foreign Ministry slammed Trump for “insulting China”, and said the US should “learn to take care of its own business.” Just like how China should learn to develop their own technologies instead of just stealing everyone’s trade secrets.

And of course the Chinese press once again blasted the president’s “racism” in blaming China for a virus that originated in China, and was unleashed upon the world thanks to the CPC’s callousness and indiscretion .

Of course, if Beijing finds this phrasing so offensive, then why does it continue to call Swine Flu the ‘African Swine Flu’?

Bill Bishop

@niubi

So why do prc officials not insist on a name change for African swine fever? Or did I miss their repeated expressions of indignation about a name that stigmatizes an entire continent? https://twitter.com/onlyyoontv/status/1239829253455138816 

Eunice Yoon

@onlyyoontv

Replying to @onlyyoontv

“The @WHO and the international community have clearly stated viruses shouldn’t be linked to certain countries or regions to avoid stigma. We urge the US to immediately correct its mistake, and stop it unreasonable accusations against China.”-China on Trump “Chinese virus” remark

end

China expels foreign journalists working for the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal and the WaSHINGTON POST

(ZEROHEDGE)

“Bloody Tuesday”: In Unprecedented Move, China Expels All Foreign Journalists Working For NYT, WSJ, WaPo

In the latest escalation of tensions, China announced on Tuesday that it would expel all American journalists working for the New York Times, WSJ and the Washington Post. It also demanded that those outlets – as well as VOA and Time Magazine – provide the Chinese government with detailed information about their operations in the country, the NYT reports. These include “all written materials” including staff finances, operations and real estate information in China.

Experts described the move, which was retaliation for the Trump Administration limiting the numbers of Chinese citizens who can work for Chinese media agencies in the US.

Per the new measures, Beijing’s media bureau has instructed American journalists “whose press credentials are due to expire before the end of 2020” to “notify the Department of Information of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs within four calendar days starting from today and hand back their press cards within ten calendar days.”

The statement continued to specify that the expelled journalists “will not be allowed to continue working as journalists in the People’s Republic of China, including its Hong Kong and Macao Special Administrative Regions.” China has kicked journalists out of the mainland before, but trying to bar them from HK or Macau is a first.

Hua Chunying, a prominent government spokesperson for China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said these were necessary countermeasures to fight back against the Trump Administration’s “cold war mentality.”

The decisions are entirely necessary countermeasures that China has been forced to take because of the unreasonable oppression that Chinese media organizations experience in the US. They are legitimate, justified self-defense in every sense.

One American reporter described the move as “unprecedented.”

B. Allen-Ebrahimian

@BethanyAllenEbr

Bloody Tuesday.

Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs just announced it is expelling all the American reporters at Wall Street Journal, New York Times, and Washington Post.

And not allowing them to work in HONG KONG either. Unprecedented.https://www.mfa.gov.cn/web/fyrbt_673021/t1757128.shtml?from=timeline&isappinstalled=0 

Though the decision was likely in the works for weeks, as Beijing threatened retaliation after Trump expelled the reporter, it’s notable that these expulsions are arriving following Trump’s decision to double down on the phrase “Chinese Virus” to refer to the novel coronavirus.

The journalists being expelled include the NYT’s Edward Wong, a diplomatic correspondent for the NYT and Harvard Nieman Fellow.

Shortly before the news broke, Wong tweeted that Chinese diplomats around the world are pushing propaganda to try and “bury” the flaws in the Chinese governance model that helped perpetuate the Wuhan outbreak, which could have easily been nipped in the bud.

Edward Wong

@ewong

Chinese diplomats around the world are now engaged in pushing propaganda to try to bury how flaws in the Chinese Communist Party’s governance model — notably its lack of transparency — helped lead to the Wuhan outbreak months ago. This effort damages China’s credibility. https://twitter.com/chinesesomalia/status/1239639548101103617 

Chinese Embassy in Somalia@ChineseSomalia

The outbreak first occurred in Wuhan, but after efforts, China defeated it. There have been outbreaks in so many parts of the world, which makes people understand the source of the outbreak is very likely not in Wuhan. Believe scientists can finally find it. #Somalia#COVID-19

View image on Twitter
View image on Twitter
16 people are talking about this

Edward Wong

@ewong

Breaking: China retaliates against new US policy on Chinese state-run media. Says 5 US organizations are now “foreign missions.” Demands US citizens working for NYT, Wash Post & WSJ turn over press cards in 10 days & stop work. Can’t report in HK or Macau. https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/xwfw_665399/s2510_665401/t1757162.shtml 

Of course Beijing is furious that President Trump keeps calling Covid-19 the “Chinese Virus” – but not because it’s racist, because the CCP is trying to convince the Chinese people that the virus came from the US.

Read the full statement from China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs below:

In recent years, the US government has placed unwarranted restrictions on Chinese media agencies and personnel in the US, purposely made things difficult for their normal reporting assignments, and subjected them to growing discrimination and politically-motivated oppression. For instance, in December 2018, the US ordered certain Chinese media organizations in the US to register as “foreign agents”; in February 2020, it designated five Chinese media entities in the US as “foreign missions” and imposed a cap on the number of their employees, in effect expelling Chinese journalists from the US. Such outrageous treatment prompted strong representations from China, in which China firmly objected to and strongly condemned the US move, and stressed its reserved right to respond and take actions.
China hereby announces the following measures, effective immediately:

First, in response to the US designation of five Chinese media agencies as “foreign missions”, China demands, in the spirit of reciprocity, that the China-based branches of Voice of America, the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, the Washington Post and Time declare in written form information about their staff, finance, operation and real estate in China.

Second, in response to the US slashing the staff size of Chinese media outlets in the US, which is expulsion in all but name, China demands that journalists of US citizenship working with the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal and the Washington Post whose press credentials are due to expire before the end of 2020 notify the Department of Information of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs within four calendar days starting from today and hand back their press cards within ten calendar days. They will not be allowed to continue working as journalists in the People’s Republic of China, including its Hong Kong and Macao Special Administrative Regions.

Third, in response to the discriminatory restrictions the US has imposed on Chinese journalists with regard to visa, administrative review and reporting, China will take reciprocal measures against American journalists.

The above-mentioned measures are entirely necessary and reciprocal countermeasures that China is compelled to take in response to the unreasonable oppression the Chinese media organizations experience in the US. They are legitimate and justified self-defense in every sense. What the US has done is exclusively targeting Chinese media organizations, and hence driven by a Cold War mentality and ideological bias. It has seriously tarnished the reputation and image of Chinese media organizations, seriously affected their normal operation in the US, and seriously disrupted people-to-people and cultural exchanges between the two countries. It has therefore exposed the hypocrisy of the self-styled advocate of press freedom. China urges the US to immediately change course, undo the damage, and stop its political oppression and arbitrary restrictions on Chinese media organizations. Should the US choose to go further down the wrong path, it could expect more countermeasures from China.

China’s fundamental state policy of opening-up has not changed and will not change. Foreign media organizations and journalists who cover stories in accordance with laws and regulations are always welcome in China, and will get continued assistance from our side. What we reject is ideological bias against China, fake news made in the name of press freedom, and breaches of ethics in journalism. We call on foreign media outlets and journalists to play a positive role in advancing the mutual understanding between China and the rest of the world.

end

4. EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

UK

The virus could last until the Spring of 2021, in the uK

(zerohedge)

UK Covid-19 Could Last Until Spring 2021 With Millions Hospitalized

A public health document viewed by The Guardian says the Covid-19 outbreak could last until spring 2021 and lead to millions hospitalized.

The secret document was written by the Public Health England (PHE) reveals the virus crisis could be sticking around for another 12 months and infect upwards as 80% of Britons over time.

The document says that: “As many as 80% of the population are expected to be infected with Covid-19 in the next 12 months, and up to 15% (7.9 million people) may require hospitalisation.”

 

UK Covid-19 Cases And Deaths (as of March 15)

Chief Medical Officer Professor Chris Whitty recently said the worst-case scenario has modeled 80% of the population “are expected” to contract the virus.

Paul Hunter, a professor of medicine at the University of East Anglia, told The Guardian that if the public were to hear that the virus would be disrupting their lives for one year, then they would be “really upset” and “pretty worried about that.”

“A year is entirely plausible. But that figure isn’t well appreciated or understood,” added Hunter.

“I think it will dip in the summer, towards the end of June, and come back in November, in the way that usual seasonal flu does. I think it will be around forever, but become less severe over time, as immunity builds up,” he added.

As we noted Sunday, the UK likely missed the containment window to implement social distancing policies that would flatten the curve to slowdown infections, suggesting the country could see an exponential rise in Covid-19 cases over the next month, sort of like what’s happening in Italy at the moment.

It’s becoming increasingly apparent that the military could be deployed to keep order at supermarkets, hospitals, and in the streets, as Britons could soon find out that virus disruptions may extend into early 2021.

END

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

IRAN/USA

After firing rockets into Iraq, Pompeo warns that they are on the brink of war with a nation that can hardly stand on its own two feet due the the devastating effects of the coronavirus and their huge debt

(zerohedge)

US On Brink Of War In Iraq – “Self Defense” Strikes Against Iranian Proxies On Table: Pompeo

What a time for war to be brewing in the Middle East yet again: Washington warned Iraq’s government on Monday it is ready to act in “self -defense” if American forces come under attack. This follows last week’s rocket attacks on Taji base just north of Baghdad, which houses US troops. At least two Americans have been killed in the recent attacks, blamed on Iran-backed militias, especially Kataib Hezbollah.

Pompeo told Iraqi PM Adil Abd al-Mahdi in a phone call that Baghdad “must defend Coalition personnel supporting the Iraqi government’s efforts to defeat ISIS,” according to a Monday State Dept. press release.

Those “responsible for the attacks must be held accountable,” the statement warned. The US “will not tolerate attacks and threats to American lives” and will take “military action as necessary in self-defense,” it added.

 

US Air Force file image: F-15E Strike Eagles drop 2,000-pound joint direct attack munitions.

Defense Secretary Mark Esper said last week “all options” remain on the table, and that President Trump had authorized a military response. An initial Pentagon response did come last Thursday in the form of broad airstrikes across southern Iraq, targeting at least 5 Kataib Hezbollah military sites.

Iraq was prompt to condemn the US strikes which left at least 6 dead, most Iraqi national military personnel, as well as one civilian.

Meanwhile, Iraq’s Foreign Ministry says it will submit a formal complaint to the UN Security Council condemning the repeat US violations of Iraqi sovereignty.

“Iraq will complain to the United Nations and the Security Council about overnight U.S. air strikes, a spokesman for the foreign ministry said on Friday,” Reuters reports. “The Iraqi military said earlier on Friday that the air strikes had killed six people and described them as a violation of sovereignty.”

END
IRAN/ISRAEL, EGYPT/IRAQ/LEBANON
Middle East update/Coronavirus
(ASSOCIATED PRESS)

Iran suffers biggest one-day coronavirus death toll as crisis intensifies in Mideast

Iran reports a rise of 129 in overall COVID-19 deaths, yet businesses in capital Tehran remained open

Authorities in Iran have complained that most people in the capital are not treating the crisis seriously enough.

TEHRAN, Iran (AP) — Iran reported another 129 fatalities from the new coronavirus on Monday, the largest one-day rise in deaths since it began battling the Middle East’s worst outbreak, which has claimed more than 850 lives and infected a number of senior officials in the country.

Businesses in Iran’s capital remained open, however, even as other countries in the region grounded planes, sealed their borders and moved toward full lockdowns.

The divergent approaches adopted by local authorities reflect continued uncertainty over how to slow the spread of a virus that has infected around 180,000 people worldwide and caused more than 7,000 deaths.

Israel, where the number of confirmed cases has nearly tripled to 298 in recent days, has authorized the use of phone-snooping technology long deployed against suspected Palestinian militants to track coronavirus patients.

“These measures will help us greatly to locate the virus, the location of the infected, and thereby halt the spread of the virus,” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a televised address late Monday, adding that they would be temporary.

He said the cabinet had debated the measures for six hours and agreed on strict oversight. But such practices are likely to spark renewed debate over government surveillance and privacy rights as countries adopt them in the face of the pandemic.

Most people experience only mild or moderate symptoms, such as fever and cough, and recover within weeks. But the virus is highly contagious and can be spread by people with no visible symptoms. For some, especially older adults and people with existing health problems, it can cause more severe illness, including pneumonia.

In Iraq, people raced to supermarkets and swiftly emptied shelves after the government announced a weeklong curfew beginning late Tuesday. All flights from Baghdad’s international airport will also be suspended. Iraq has reported 124 cases and nine deaths.

In Lebanon, where the government ordered a lockdown, traffic was thin and some streets were completely empty. Restaurants, cafes and bars have been closed since last week and most private businesses were shuttered Monday. The tiny country has reported 99 cases and three deaths.

Both Iraq and Lebanon have been largely in disarray since anti-government protests broke out last year, and Lebanon was mired in its worst financial crisis in years even before the pandemic began.

In Iran, which has close ties to both Iraq and Lebanon, authorities have reported 14,991 confirmed cases and 853 deaths. Monday’s jump in fatalities was the largest one-day rise since the epidemic began. The real numbers may be even higher, as some have questioned the government’s reporting.

Israel — where the number of confirmed cases has nearly tripled to 298 in recent days — has authorized the use of phone-snooping technology long deployed against suspected Palestinian militants to track coronavirus patients.

Many Iranians have dismissed fears about the virus and advice to avoid social contact. Restaurants and cafes have remained open, though business has diminished.

On Monday, Iran closed the Masoume shrine, a major pilgrimage site in the city of Qom, the epicenter of the country’s outbreak. Authorities were already restricting access and barring pilgrims from kissing or touching the shrine, but it had remained open.

Authorities also waited until Monday to close the Imam Reza shrine in Mashhad, which draws 25 million Shiite pilgrims a year, including many from neighboring Iraq, Pakistan and Afghanistan.

A member of the Assembly of Experts, which has the power to appoint or dismiss Iran’s supreme leader, died from the COVID-19 illness caused by the virus, the semi-official Fars and Tasnim news agencies reported Monday.

Ayatollah Hashem Bathaei, 78, is the latest of several Iranian officials to have died. Cabinet ministers, members of parliament, Revolutionary Guard members and Health Ministry officials have caught the virus.

Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who is 80 years old and has been in power since 1989, wore disposable gloves at a recent public event.

The official leading Iran’s response to the virus on Sunday expressed concerns that health facilities could be overwhelmed if the rate of new cases continues to climb.

Egypt has reported 166 cases, including at least 70 foreigners, and four deaths, including two German tourists. It suspended all flights in and out of the country starting Thursday and lasting until the end of the month.

Israel’s Health Ministry said more than 1,000 doctors and a similar number of nurses have been quarantined. The health care system is already suffering from budget limitations linked to the prolonged political deadlock in Israel, which has not had a permanent government in more than a year.

Israel swore in its new Knesset after elections earlier this month. The 120 members took the oath of office in groups of three, in keeping with bans on large gatherings.

But Netanyahu said he hoped he would not have to order a generalized lockdown, and would confine such measures to specific areas with many cases.

The Palestinian Authority, which governs parts of the Israeli-occupied West Bank, said anyone entering would be placed in quarantine for 14 days. The Palestinians have reported nearly 40 cases, most linked to an outbreak in Bethlehem.

Jordan said travelers arriving in the country will be quarantined at hotels on the Dead Sea and in the Red Sea city of Aqaba. Health Minister Jaber Saad said the popular tourist area along the Dead Sea would be isolated and administered by the military.

Jordan has reported 23 cases, one of whom recovered.

Bars and pubs will be closed in Dubai through the end of the month, and authorities ordered people not to hold parties in their homes. Saudi Arabia closed malls, cafes and parks, allowing only grocery stores and pharmacies to stay open and limiting restaurants to delivery.

Pakistan meanwhile reported a surge of new cases, bringing its total to 183. Of those, around 150 are from the southern Sindh Province bordering Iran, where authorities have quarantined 4,000 recent arrivals from Iran.

END

6.Global Issues

The Fed always listens to Zoltan Pozsar formerly of the NY Fed.  He states that the Fed must now bailout the globe with liquidity and dollars to avoid devastation

a must read..if your can understand this

(zerohedge)

Zoltan Stares Into The Abyss: Here Is What The Fed Must Do Right Now To Avoid Global Devastation

Two weeks ago, on March 3, before a liquidity panic had gripped capital markets, corporations and global banks, Credit Suisse repo icon and former NY Fed staffer, Zoltan Pozsar issued a recommendation to halt the funding crisis early in its tracks, writing that the Fed should “combine rate cuts with open liquidity lines that include a pledge to use the swap lines, an uncapped repo facility and QE if necessary.” Unfortunately, since then the coronavirus supply chain (and payments) crisis has been joined by the oil price war, which has crippled the petrodollar exchange system by sending the price of oil sharply lower and exacerbating the global dollar funding shock.

And even though the Fed belatedly followed through with all of Pozsar’s March 3 policy recommendations, going so far as throwing a commercial paper bailout facility which was also recommended by BofA’s Marc Cabana (another former NY Fed staffer), the market remains unconvinced that any of this is enough, especially with JPMorgan warning  that the world is facing an unprecedented dollar margin call, as a result of the $12 trillion synthetic dollar short, some 60% of US GDP.

Faced with this unprecedented dollar shortage, the Fed has so far failed to assure the world it can provide all the funding needed. Furthermore, as we said yesterday, in some ways we sympathize with the Fed, as every day something new breaks among this record funding strain:

  • One day it is ETF NAV discounts blowing out;
  • The next day the treasury Treasury Cash/Swap basis surges and funds suffer a historic VaR shock amid forced liquidations;
  • Day three sees the FRA/OIS explode higher as a massive dollar funding margin call strikes;
  • Then, day four sees the same repo crisis that was supposed to be fixed back in September return with a vengeance, as banks freak out about counterparty risk.

As we further said, “what the Fed needs is the monetary equivalent of Dr. House: someone who can diagnose what is actually wrong with the monetary plumbing, instead of using the same old shotgun approach of shoveling trillions in blunt liquidity into the market, which clearly is not working anymore.”

Alas, that is not a credible option, meanwhile the Fed’s liquidity injections are failing with the BBG dollar index – the simplest proxy of dollar demand alongside FRA/OIS and FX basis swaps – continuing to surge as various actors rush to procure what, with all due respect to Ray Dalio, is the opposite of trash.

Confirming our take that everything the Fed does, including this morning’s Commercial Paper facility restart, is either insufficient or targeting the wrote underlying cause (today even BofA’s Marc Cabana who pushed for the CPFF slammed it, saying “this facility does nothing to assist the money funds trying to raise cash and address outflows”), is none other than Zoltan Pozsar who in his latest note published this morning, writes that “all segments of funding markets – secured, unsecured and FX swaps – continue to show growing signs of stress”, prompting him to conclude that “the Fed may have to do more still.”

Scratch “may”, and replace with “will”, unless Powell wants to watch the dollar short squeeze go all “Volkswagen” on him.

So what can the Fed do? Well, according to Zoltan, the time for half-measures is over (incidentally, he too panned the Fed’s CFPP writing that “the Fed needs to become a buyer of CDs and CP, but not through the CPFF”), and instead the printer of the world’s reserve currency has to become the bank of last resort not only for US institutions, where access should be expanded to non-banks, but also banker to the entire world in the form of unlimited, 24/7 swap lines open with every central bank, not just the G7.

Below we present a summary of his must read “Fed must act or else” note:

The Fed’s liquidity injections appear not to be working.

All segments of funding markets – secured, unsecured and FX swaps – continue to show growing signs of stress. The Fed may have to do more still.

In the U.S., we watched, but didn’t feel the funding impact of large banks in other countries being asked to help their economies. Now that U.S. banks are asked to do the same, dollar funding markets are starting to feel the impact.

As U.S. banks increase their lending to the real economy as corporations draw on credit lines and banks lend more to households and firms, lending will consume more balance sheet and risk capital, and that will leave less room for market making and arbitrage, which under current circumstances are “luxury”.

The breakdown of o/n repo markets yesterday tell us that balance sheet is now getting scarce to conduct even the most basic type of market making.

As banks are pulling back from market making, the Fed and other central banks need to assume the role of dealer of last resort…

  • The Fed needs to become a buyer of CDs and CP, but not through the CPFF.
  • The Fed needs to offer dollars on a daily frequency through the swap lines, and other central banks need to lend dollars on to both banks and non-banks.
  • The Fed needs to broaden access to the swap lines to other jurisdictions as dollar funding needs are large in Scandinavia, Southeast Asia, Australia and South America, not just in the G-7. The dollar funding needs of both banks and non-banks is what’s at risk and the assets that are being funded are U.S. assets – Treasuries, MBS and credit – so the Fed has a vested interest.

A hallmark theme of the post-QE global financial order has been the secular growth of FX hedged fixed income and credit portfolios at non-bank institutions like life insurers and asset managers from negative interest rate jurisdictions – the new shadow banking system, epitomized by money market funding (FX swaps) of capital market lending (Treasuries and the full credit spectrum).

Carry makes the world go round and as banks do more for the economy central banks will have to backstop the shadow banking system – yet again…

Summarizing the above is simple: Pozsar is basically recapping what we said in “The World Is Hit With A $12 Trillion Dollar Margin Call“, and explains that to fix this potentially catastrophic margin call, the Fed must grant access to virtually every global entity in need of dollars, including those shadow banks which over the past decade scramble to lever themselves to the gills, fully aware that when the day came, the Fed would bail them out.

That day has arrived, and it Pozsar’s proposal is accepted – and in the past everything he has suggested was promptly pursued by the US central bank – it means that the Fed is about to bail out the world.

The repo export than notes that he is most concerned about four key areas which the Fed has so far failed to address:

  1. liquidity in the CD and CP markets;
  2. the frequency with which the Fed plans to do swap line operations and the FX points where it’s active;
  3. the funding needs of institutions;
  4. the regions that aren’t embraced by the swap lines.

Going down the list, Pozsar first focuses on the initial shock to the CD and CP markets which he notes came from the equity market collapse and the flows it triggered whereby cash started to flood back from securities lenders’ cash collateral reinvestment accounts to short sellers’ accounts.

Given that secured lenders invest cash in the CD and CP markets and short sellers invest mostly in Treasury bills, these flows turned sec-lenders into net sellers of CD and CP, precisely when issuance from corporations and banks is picking up. Outflows from prime money funds have been small to date, but given ongoing stresses in funding markets and heightened risk aversion, prime funds could see more outflows this week as investors take refuge in the safety of government money funds. Such a rotation would further hurt demand for CD and CP this week and will continue to pressure funding spreads including U.S. dollar Libor-OIS.

This is notable because it explains why Pozsar does not think that the right solution now is to reactivate the CPFF, as the Fed just did:

The legal aspects of onboarding issuers takes time and liquidity can kill you quick. Our recommendation would be for the Fed to come to an agreement with the U.S. Treasury whereby the latter provides a “first-loss buffer” on any financial or non-financial CP the New York Fed buys in the primary or secondary market. The first loss buffer would ensure that the Treasury takes the credit risk and the Fed only takes the liquidity risk such that the Fed feels “secured to its satisfaction” – which is what the Fed cares about most in a crisis situation.

The money to fund such a first loss buffer is already in the system – it’s sitting in the Treasury General Account. Putting up $50 billion of the $400 billion sitting idly at the Fed would provide sufficient comfort for the Fed and near immediate support for the market – the Bank of Japan and the Bank of Canada already buy CP in their domestic jurisdictions.

And since the Fed is now going, all in, Pozsar says that “this template could then be extended to corporate bond purchases by adding more buffer and as President Dudley would say “going out the curve and down the credit spectrum”. And why stop there, after corporate bonds the Fed can also buy stocks, and oil, and baseball cards, and why not fresh air… But not gold, never gold, at least not until the Fed is ready to fully devalue the dollar against the precious metal, which is also coming in the near future. But we digress…

Second, Pozsar is concerned that the Fed’s FX swap lines are now active “but it feels like the operational aspects of it need to be fine-tuned. Currently dollars are being offered weekly, but the FX swap market trades like they should be offered daily, and not only at weekly and three three-month maturities but at ultra-short tenors as well, similar to how the Fed lends in the repo market.”

Third, the swap lines (which we first profiled in late 2009) are open only for banks which is a legacy “fault line in the system.” The swap lines were originally designed to help the funding needs of banks during 2008; they work by the Fed lending dollars to other central banks which then lend it to banks. But since the financial crisis, non-banks eclipsed banks as the biggest borrowers in the FX swap market: a hallmark theme of the post-QE global financial order has been the secular growth of FX hedged fixed income and credit portfolios at non-bank institutions like life insurers and asset managers – the new shadow banking system epitomized by money market funding (FX swaps) of capital market lending (Treasuries and credit).

According to Pozsar, unless these non-bank entities get access to dollar auctions – from local central banks – FX swap spreads may remain wide if banks won’t serve as matched-book intermediaries; in other words, yet another half-baked liquidity bailout which will not reach the target audience. Additionally, there is a growing risk that such intermediation will fracture as the assets that FX swaps fund include not only Treasuries but credit and CLOs too. Credit quality is fast deteriorating across various sectors and that makes it riskier for dealers to fund some life insurers through FX swaps, just like it became riskier to fund some insurers during the 2008 crisis.

As Pozsar puts it, “over the past five years balance sheet and the availability of reserves were the main drivers of spreads in the FX swap market. It’s time to think about credit risk creeping in to funding markets through the asset side of some portfolios funded through FX swaps.” To this we will also note that counterparty risk – especially when a certain massive European bank is involved – is also starting to be a factor when making funding calculations… just like 2008.

Fourth, and final, the repo expert believes that the geographic reach of the swap lines is too narrow. The Fed has swap lines only with the BoC, the BoE, the BoJ, the ECB and the SNB, and that’s because the 2008 crisis hit banks mostly in these particular jurisdictions. But the breadth of the current crisis is wider as every country is struggling to get dollars. The dollar needs of Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, Australia and Brazil and Mexico seem particularly striking for a variety of reasons.

Scandinavia countries, like Japan have large dollar needs due to institutional investors’ hedging needs and only Norway is endowed with large FX reserves to tap into. Mexico is dealing with a terms of trade shock due to the collapse of oil prices. Southeast Asian countries that serve as banking centers need U.S. dollars to clear dollar payments and countries like South Korea and Taiwan have life insurers with meaningful hedging needs.

Finally, sooner or later, one will also have to include China – and its upcoming dollar maturity wall – to this list.

In short, “the Fed’s dollar swap lines need to go global, the hierarchy needs to flatten.”

* * *

Concluding the surprisingly short – for his standards note – Pozsar says that the message for central banks that emerges from this brief note is this:

backstop not only the banks at the core of the financial system, but also markets and non-banks. In short: backstop/bailout everyone. The market backstops should include the CD and CP market where we need a buyer of last resort as the structural buyers of paper are losing cash fast; the backstop of the FX swap market should include daily operations at more points along the FX curve.

Additionally, “Like primary dealers offer round the clock liquidity across timezones, dealers of last resort – the central banks of the swap network – should offer dollar liquidity round the clock too.”

Finally, like primary dealers, who trade with anyone with an ISDA, dealers of last resort should too: “the Fed by broadening access to other central banks and other central banks by broadening access to dollar auctions to non-banks like life insurers and asset managers.”

While free market capitalists will howl with rage at what the former Fed staffer is proposing, he makes a valid point that demand on bank balance sheets will increase from here to provide credit locally for the real economy – that will consume balance sheet and risk capital and will naturally leave less room for market making and arbitrage, which under current circumstances are luxury. Of course, none of this would have been an issue if instead of buying back trillions in their own stock, pushing the stock price to all time highs, corporations had simply saved for a rainy day… a day like today when it is pouring and hailing. But alas, while we warned repeatedly that a day of buyback reckoning is coming, nobody bothered to do anything at the time to reverse it. And now it’s too late.

In his final observation, Pozsar writes that “while it’s too much to ask central banks to lend to the real economy” – but why, after all if we are going there, why not load up the proverbial helicopter with money and just make it rain: why should just the financial sector benefit from this last systemic bailout – “it’s not too much to ask them to become more active in making markets as banks free up balance sheet for lending more to the real economy. The breakdown of o/n repo markets today tell us that balance sheet is now scarce to conduct even the most basic type of market making.”

He also points out that while charts showing Target2 balances became known as the visual representation of the ECB clearing payment imbalances between northern Europe and southern Europe through the balance sheet of local central banks within the eurozone, “it’s now time for the Fed to do the same globally with other central banks and for those central banks to lend broadly – after all what is at stake here is the funding of U.S. assets: Treasuries, MBS and credit.”

In short: bail out everyone… everywhere. The alternative is 107 years of fake price discovery and Fed market manipulation crashing upon themselves, ending the fiat system as we know it, and leading to the biggest social, economic and financial catastrophe of all time.

His full note is below:

Zoltan #28 by Zerohedge on Scribd

end

The wrong bazooka:  it looks like the Fed must do exactly what Pozsar suggests;  bailout the globe
(zero hedge)

The Wrong Bazooka: Dealers Take Just $10BN Of $500BN Repo

The Fed may have hoped that when it announced up to $5 trillion in monthly repo capacity last week, it would ease the funding crisis that has dragged the dollar to three year highs.

Alas, as Zoltan Pozsar explained earlier (when he demanded a Fed backstop of virtually anyone, anywhere), so far it is failing as just confirmed by the latest ad hoc repo operation that was announced earlier today, supposedly to reverse the spike in overnight GC funding, yet which saw the lowest submissions of any of the Fed’s expanded repo operations yet: with up to $500 billion in total capacity, the repo operation saw only $10.1 billion in submissions, or just over 2%!

So if domestic repo lines are not the panacea that is needed to thaw the dollar market, what is? For the answer we point readers to the rather draconian conclusion offered by Zoltan Pozsar earlier today, which was the following:

backstop not only the banks at the core of the financial system, but also markets and non-banks. The market backstops should include the CD and CP market where we need a buyer of last resort as the structural buyers of paper are losing cash fast; the backstop of the FX swap market should include daily operations at more points along the FX curve.

In other words, we have cross a rubicon where absent a backstop and bailout of pretty much any USD-denominated financial asset anywhere will lead to an acceleration of the already acute dollar short squeeze which JPM calculated to be as large as $12 trillion.

 

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings MONDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1099 DOWN .0197 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS//CORONAVIRUS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /MOSTLY RED EXCEPT SPAIN

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 106.85 UP 0.632 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2108   DOWN   0.0157  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/

 

USA/CAN 1.4162 UP .0162 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  TUESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL BY 149 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1009 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 9.61 POINTS OR 0.34% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED  UP 200.16 POINTS OR 0.87%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 5,42%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED EXCEPT SPAIN

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED EXCEPT SPAIN 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 200.16 POINTS OR 0.87%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 9.61 POINTS OR 0.34%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP 5.42%

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 9.49  POINTS OR 0.06%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1473.10

silver:$12.38-

Early TUESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 0.78% !!! UP 4 IN POINTS from MONDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 1.39 UP 7  IN BASIS POINTS from MONDAY night.

USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 99.30 UP 123 CENT(S) from  MONDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers TUESDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing MONDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.27% UP 22 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.01%  UP 2   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.02%//UP 18 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:2.38 UP 25 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 136 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.43% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 2,81% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR MONDAY

Closing currency crosses for MONDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0974  DOWN     .01899 or 190 basis points

USA/Japan: 107.49 UP 1.274 OR YEN DOWN 127  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2042 DOWN .02240 POUND DOWN 224  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 207 basis points to 1.4219

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 7.0072    ON SHORE  (DOWN)..

 

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  7.0326  (YUAN DOWN)..

 

TURKISH LIRA:  6.4040 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +.01%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 1 IN basis points from MONDAY at 0.89 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 1.47 UP 15 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 99.09 UP  162  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for FRIDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 132.04  2.56%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 196.85 POINTS OR 2.25%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 110.32 POINTS 2.87%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 356.80 POINTS or 5.84%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 334.43 POINTS OR 2.23%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 28.61 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 29.73 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE FALLS:    75.24  THE CROSS HIGHER BY 0.73 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE LOWER BY 73 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.43 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  26.78//

 

 

BRENT : 28.60

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 1.08..plus 34 basis points…

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 1.66  plus 34 basis points..

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.1004 ( DOWN 159   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:107.65 UP 1.438 (YEN DOWN 144 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 99.50  UP 144 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.2079 DOWN 186  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 6.397

 

 

the Russian rouble 75.35   DOWN 0.84 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( DOWN 84 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.4219 DOWN 206 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  7.0072  (ONSHORE)/

 

 

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 7.0290 (OFFSHORE)

 

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.32%

 

The Dow closed UP 1048.86 POINTS OR 5.20%

 

NASDAQ closed UP 430.19 POINTS OR 6.23%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  73.25 CLOSED DOWN 9.44

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 0.889%//libor dramatically rises

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

‘Helicopter Money’ Sparks Bond Backlash, Stocks Bounce On Fed Bailout, But Bank Liquidity Worsens

US futures traded limit up overnight, plunge back to the lows of the day, soared back above overnight highs, dumped again, ripped again, then slumped… 1000s of Dow points in the swings on the back of various political and monetary headlines of ever-increasing bailouts (and warnings)… that is malarkey!

So, some (brief, perhaps) exuberance in stocks.

BUT…

 

Despite The Fed’s CPFF, banking system liquidity worsened…

Source: Bloomberg

AND…

‘Helicopter Money’ sent the the 10Y Yield soaring back above 1.00% today as yields exploded 30bps higher…

Source: Bloomberg

AND…

All this chatter of helicopter money has sent USA Sovereign risk is spiking

Source: Bloomberg

Simply put, it appears the bond market is starting to panic about MMT becoming an imminent reality – not a good sign for The Fed, The Treasury, and all Americans. And while this may lead to dollar-weakness in the endgame, for now, liquidity is all that matters and the dollar soared higher again as the financial system’s liquidity crisis showed now signs of abating. The Dollar is up 6 days in a row…

Source: Bloomberg

Today was the dollar’s biggest daily gain since the flight-to-quality after the UK’s Brexit vote in June 2016 (and the biggest 6-day gain since Lehman).

*  *  *

Legendary investor Jim Rogers warned that “the next time we are going to have a financial problem it’s going to be the worst…” and right now it appears we are headed toward “the worst financial crisis of our lifetimes” and “we will know in a few months.” However, Rogers noted, the reason behind such market mayhem is “not just the virus, it is certainly much more” than that.

Rather notably, the US equity market has started each day moving in the opposite direction from the previous day’s late-day move every day for two weeks…

Source: marketear

There have been 3%+ moves in the S&P 500 during 13 of the past 22 trading days, approaching the October 2008 experience.

Goldman’s illiquidity ratio, which measures the price impact of trading volumes, shows that liquidity has evaporated within US equities…

Bid-ask spreads have widened to 8-year highs…

Early in the day, stocks tumbled back into the red but ever-escalating helicopter money headlines and The Fed’s CPFF and extended Repo helped lift the market to a big day, led by Small Caps…(NOTE – the drop around 12ET came after the White House Virus Task Force stated that “we are losing the fight to contain the virus.”

Defensive and Cyclicals rallied today, but cyclicals are dominating the week…

Source: Bloomberg

For some context, this drop in stocks dwarfs the Y2K-post-Fed-liquidity plunge…

Source: Bloomberg

VIX dipped today back below 75, but remains extremely elevated…

 

There was a bloodbath in bondland today with yields exploding higher across the curve – long-end smashed hardest – 30Y spiked 35bps, 2Y +9bps…

Source: Bloomberg

The ETF liquidity crisis is abating as rates soar…

Source: Bloomberg

US yield curve steepened as chatter increased of the helicopter money-drop in the US…

Source: Bloomberg

This is the biggest steepening since the US downgrade in 2011…

Source: Bloomberg

In the past week, junk-bond investors have suffered through two of the worst days since the collapse of Lehman Brothers. The struggle reflects the spike in economic uncertainty and how many high-yield borrowers will have problems with bank lines. However, junk CDS spreads are pricing in a 43% five-year default probability. That’s high, but in 2009 CDS was pricing a more than 60% default probability, so it can go higher.

Source: Bloomberg

IG credit is even worse, with CDS pricing in a 9.9% default probability, which is extremely high…

Source: Bloomberg

And European sovereign credit spreads are blowing out…

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos extended their gains today with Bitcoin almost back to even on the week…

Source: Bloomberg

Commodities were mixed today with Gold managing gains as crude and copper were crushed…

Source: Bloomberg

Silver’s continued weakness, and gold’s gains today, sent the gold/silver ratio to another new all-time record high…

Source: Bloomberg

WTI puked to a $26 handle!!

After some serious ugliness yesterday, precious metals rebounded aggressively today as helicopter money chatter hit, BUT that was quickly slapped down by the powers that be… gold and palladium higher on the day (palladium’s jump was biggest since 2001 at its highs), silver and platinum lower…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, systemic risk continues to soar in deep, dark corners of the financial markets… Implied Correlation is at Lehman/EU Crisis levels…

Source: Bloomberg

But, we suspect this reracking has a lot further to go…

Source: Bloomberg

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

White House Unveils $850 Billion Economic Rescue Package To Combat Virus Fallout

Market rises after falling badly on European close.

(courtesy zerohedge)

With the markets screaming for more federal fiscal stimulus to help cushion what will almost certainly become an extremely deep, but potentially short-lived, recession, the administration has unleashed headlines claiming that the third economic package will include $850 billion (more than 100x the $8.3 billion included in the first package).

The headline hit earlier this morning, with a barebones report in Politico’s ‘Playbook’ newsletter, which frequently publishes administration scoops.

Jake Sherman

@JakeSherman

NEW … PLAYBOOK: MNUCHIN seeking $850 billion from Congress …

@united CEO: “The financial impact of this crisis on our industry is much worse than the stark downturn that we saw in the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks.”https://politi.co/2E8W3WO

Playbook

And Joe Biden announces he would select a female running mate.

politico.com

Then, the Washington Post followed up that initial report with a lengthier story offering more details:  The package would be mostly devoted to flooding the economy with cash, through a payroll tax cut or other mechanism, two of the officials said, with some $50 billion directed specifically to helping the airline industry.

Roughly 30 minutes after the Washington Post report, an administration official confirmed the story.

Mnuchin is reportedly planning to introduce the package to the Republic-controlled Senate on Tuesday, and would like to see the package pass the upper chamber of Congress by the end of the week, he told senators during a Monday evening call.

This comes after Larry Kudlow hinted at helicopter money yesterday, and Mitt Romney called for ‘Andrew Yang-style’ cash injections for every American adult.

 

Some $50 billion in aid directed specifically for the airlines has also been earmarked, according to Sen. Marco Rubio.

“I think the assumption’s going to be that we’re going to do something, it should be big. Because we can’t assume that we’re just going to keep coming back,” Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) said Monday night leaving a meeting with Mnuchin and other administration officials.

Rubio said aid to airlines was likely to be included. “We still need to get people around the country. I have no doubt that’s going to be a major feature of the next step.”

Earlier this month Congress approved $8.3 billion in emergency spending for public health programs, and last week the House passed a package with paid sick leave, unemployment insurance, money for food stamps, free coronavirus testing and more, the Senate made modifications to the House package over the weekend that were billed as “technical corrections” but really scaled back the sick leave section of the bill’s benefits.

With America’s screeching to a halt, the intervention may need to be faster and even more extreme than the action taken during the financial crisis. In 2008, Congress passed the now-infamous $700 billion TARP package to bail out the banks. This time around, Trump is clearly hoping to make a statement by spending $850 billion – a larger number than TARP – to bail out Main Street.

END

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

As expected, retail sales tumble in February.. The numbers will be worse in March

(zerohedge)

US Retail Sales Tumble In February

For some ever-optimistic reason, analysts were expecting a 0.2% MoM rise in retail sales in February.

It did not – instead plunging 0.5% MoM, far worse than the weakest estimate and the biggest drop since Dec 2018’s collapse…

  • Retail sales ex-auto dealers, building materials and gasoline stations fell 0.1% in Feb.
  • Retail sales ‘control group’ unchanged m/m in Feb.

Year-over-year, headline retail sales remain in positive growth but slowed to +4.0% YoY in February…

 

Sales on everything was down except:

  • Food and beverage stores 0.0%
  • Sporting goods, hobby and book stores +0.1%
  • Miscellaneous stores retailers +1.4%
  • Internet retailers +0.7%

Wait until March hits!!

end

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

Every day, the Fed injects liquidity:  today,  189 billion in repo liquidity as libor explodes higher (see explanation below)

(zerohedge)

Fed Injects $189BN In Repo Liquidity As Libor Explodes

In light of the frozen funding markets, which are now demanding the Commercial Paper bailout facility we discussed on Sunday, which the Fed failed to deliver and which CNBC’s Steve Liesman said may be coming any moment as without we will see a relentless barrage of companies drawing down on their revolvers as they are locked out of other sources of funding, moments ago the Fed continued to inject liquidity, by conducting two repos amounting to just under $189BN.

The first one was an oversubscribed 14-Day repo, which saw $46.6BN in submissions, with the max available $45BN allotted.

This was followed half an hour later by the $500BN overnight repo which merely rolls over the prior day’s expiring overnight, and which saw some $142.65BN in usage.

With no other repos scheduled for today, and the next $500BN 84-day facility not due until Friday, banks may soon find themselves in another funding panic, and the Fed may respond as it did yesterday, with an ad hoc $500BN facility later in the day if funding conditions refuse to ease, which considering the biggest one-day jump in LIBOR since the crisis screaming systemic funding stress and now counterparty risk

… is very unlikely.

end
The real problem facing the Fed is that major European corporations are massively short Euro dollars  (USA dollars situated in Europe).  The dollars were issued by the shadow banking sector and not the Fed.  They  were issued when interest rates were zero.  Now firms are collapsing and they need to find euro dollars to repay their debts..this is the reason for Libor escalating plus other stuff..
(zerohedge)

Does Any Of This Look Like The Fed Has Anything Under Control?

The Fed has gushed trillions into the short-term money markets in an attempt to fill what appears to be a bottomless pit and now Treasury and the government are discussing direct loans to businesses and banks have used the discount window en masse “to avoid any stigma”

As one veteran trader – who has seen a few cycles, as opposed to just trading the last 10 years uptrend – exclaimed:

“Something is very wrong,” in the short-term liquidity markets.

He is not wrong.

The Dollar shortage is exploding to crisis levels as – despite unlimited Fed swap lines – global basis swaps are soaring…

And as that dollar shortage builds, so the dollar index is manically bid in a scramble for liquidity (and all other assets are sold – including gold and bonds)…

“Funding tensions and the direction of U.S. stocks will largely dictate movement for the G-10 currencies in the short run,” according to Shaun Osborne, chief foreign exchange strategist at Scotiabank

Broad credit markets are utter carnage… especially in Investment-Grade…

But the credit problem is much more short-term with Commercial Paper markets freezing

As TD Economics warns:

Shortly after the collapse in the stock market into bear territory in December 2018, we produced analysis to argue against fearing stock market volatility. Granted the recent rout that dialed the S&P 500 Index back to late 2018 levels in a short period is not common. The sharp move corresponds to a 7 standard deviation from historical norms.

However, our eyebrows have been raised at the broadening of financial stress across multiple bond, credit, liquidity and corporate indicators. This is a cause for concern of a possible larger negative credit-event. 

And the pace of tightening in financial conditions must be terrifying The Fed…


All of which explains why, as CNBC’s Steve Liesman reported earlier, The Fed and Treasury are considering a commercial paper bailout facilityExactly as we warned on Sunday

What, specifically, would the Fed announce?

To address the current frozen CP market BofA expects the Fed to announce two CP facilities, likely on Sunday night. These facilities include:

  1. a reintroduction of the 2008 “Commercial Paper Funding Facility” or CPFF
  2. a facility that would specifically target purchases of CP on dealer balance sheets which we will call a “Commercial Paper Dealer Purchase Facility” or CPDPF.

There is a potential hurdle in that both of these facilities – which would seek to explicitly bail out corporations in need of funding and MMFs – likely cannot be unilaterally authorized by the Fed due to law changes since the financial crisis. The existence of these facilities would only occur through the authority of section 13-3 of the Federal Reserve Act. The Federal Reserve used the “unusual and exigent circumstances” clause (i.e. “section 13(3)”) of the Federal Reserve Act to extend credit to financial firms during the Global Financial Crisis in 2008. Using this broad authority, the Fed created and implemented five funding facilities to provide liquidity to primary dealers and act as a backstop to the commercial paper and asset-back securities markets. BofA explains further:

Congressional action has reined in some of the Fed’s emergency lending powers. The new guidelines do not eliminate the Fed’s lending authority but raise the procedural bar. The new law still allows the Fed act as the “lender of last resort” and create broad funding facilities to help market functioning. However, there are more hoops to jump. The Fed is also restricted from providing “tailored” help to individual firms.

To recap, the Dodd Frank Act of 2010 changed the Fed’s 13(3) authority and requires programs established under this authority to have:

  • Approval from the US Treasury Secretary
  • Broad based eligibility” is meant to include a program or facility that is not designed for the purpose of aiding any number of failing firms and in which at least five entities would be eligible to participate. It also suggests programs should not be for the purpose of aiding specific companies to avoid bankruptcy or resolution.
  • Limited risk of insolvency: the definition of insolvency to cover borrowers who fail to pay undisputed debts as they become due during the 90 days prior to borrowing or who are determined by the Board or lending Reserve Bank to be insolvent.

All three conditions would easily be met in the current market panic.

Which brings us to the question of “when” will the Fed announce these facilities?  Here, as above, BofA repeats that “time is of the essence on these facilities and expect the Fed will announce them this coming Sunday night.”

We believe it imperative the Fed roll out these facilities on Sunday night given the looming expected prime MMF outflows and necessity of their ability to sell CP in order to raise cash. If the Fed waits too long the MMF outflow pressure could mount and the risk of a large scale MMF run could increase.

Will that work?

We suspect not as The Fed is mis-diagnosing – fixing the CP freeze will not solve what may reeally be happening under the surface – a major financial crisis in the global banking system.

Amid all this liquidity and largesse from the central planners, LIBOR is rising…rapidly…

Three-month Libor rose by 16.25 basis points to 1.05188%. That’s the biggest one-day jump since October 2008, the height of the global financial crisis.

They have entirely lost control.

As our veteran trader warned:

“Libor is spiking just like in 2008 suggesting counterparty risk concerns are spooking the interbank markets…”

And we wonder if this is the canary in the coalmine…

Why are traders panic-buying short-term Sub CDS protection against Deutsche Bank? This is a pure counterparty risk hedge and while it is speculation, it would not be a huge jump to suggest that under the hood, LIBOR is being sent higher by a systemic fear from ‘lending’ banks that one of the ‘borrowers’ is a far greater risk than ‘risk-free’.

When does The Fed, ECB bailout Deutsche Bank?

end

Then late in the morning another 500 billion dollar repo liquidity advance:

(courtesy zerohedge)

Fed Again Announces Extra $500BN Repo To Stabilize Funding Markets

Earlier this morning, when discussing the latest Fed repo injections, which at $189BN between overnight and term repos, seemed insufficient to ease the stress in the repo market where GC repo jumped by 40bps to 60bps this morning…

we said that “with no other repos scheduled for today, and the next $500BN 84-day facility not due until Friday, banks may soon find themselves in another funding panic, and the Fed may respond as it did yesterday, with an ad hoc $500BN facility later in the day if funding conditions refuse to ease.”

Alas, funding conditions have indeed refused to ease, with the BBDXY surging to new session highs perhaps awaiting the Fed to validate earlier reports that a Fed Commercial Paper facility is imminent, and moments ago – just as we expected – the Fed, which is now literally flying blind and making up liquidity injections on the fly, the New York Fed announced that it would conduct an additional overnight repo operation for same-day settlement today from 1:30 PM ET to 1:45 PM ET. And, as yesterday’s ad hoc operation, this repo operation will be conducted for up to an aggregate offered amount of $500 billion with a minimum bid rate of 0.10 percent.

And, as yesterday, the Fed explained that this action “is taken to ensure that the supply of reserves remains ample and to support the smooth functioning of short-term U.S. dollar funding markets.”

The problem for the Fed is that these actions have done virtually nothing to facilitate the “smooth functioning of short-term U.S. dollar funding markets”, and the longer the Fed delays in unveiling just what can fix these markets, the greater the dollar shortage will be.

end
Then the Fed announces the bailout of the Commercial Paper Market
This shows that Wall Street is in deep trouble

the key paragraph:

“Now the bad news: by launching the Lehman playbook, the Fed is telegraphing that the US is now facing systemic risk which also includes the banks and corporations, something which was missing until now. Which is why after a brief kneejerk reaction higher, markets may fade it all and crash to new lows especially if the market demands to see what if any other ammunition the Fed has left, with expectations that sooner or later the Fed will do as Yellen hinted three months ago when she said that the Fed will eventually have to buy stocks.”

(zerohedge)

The Lehman Playbook Is Back: Fed Announces Bailout Of Commercial Paper Market

It was supposed to be announced late on Sunday, but instead Powell hoped that the bazooka of QE/ZIRP/FX swaps would be sufficient to ease the funding panic. It wasn’t, and instead, with a 2-day delay, moments ago the Fed announced that, just as we reported earlier, it will establish a Commercial Paper Funding Facility (CPFF) – the same facility that was unveiled during the last financial crisis – “to support the flow of credit to households and businesses.”

As the Fed explains:

Commercial paper markets directly finance a wide range of economic activity, supplying credit and funding for auto loans and mortgages as well as liquidity to meet the operational needs of a range of companies. By ensuring the smooth functioning of this market, particularly in times of strain, the Federal Reserve is providing credit that will support families, businesses, and jobs across the economy. The CPFF will provide a liquidity backstop to U.S. issuers of commercial paper through a special purpose vehicle (SPV) that will purchase unsecured and asset-backed commercial paper rated A1/P1 (as of March 17, 2020) directly from eligible companies.

And since this is effectively a partial Fed bailout of corporate America, certainly its overnight funding needs, the Fed referred to authority granted to it under Section 13(3) of the Federal Reserve Act, with approval of the Treasury Secretary, as now that the Lehman playbook is in play, the bailout of Corporate America is suddenly very political.

The Fed had some more observations on the lock up in the CP market, which as we explained on Sunday, prompted a gradual bank run within US money markets:

The commercial paper market has been under considerable strain in recent days as businesses and households face greater uncertainty in light of the coronavirus outbreak. By eliminating much of the risk that eligible issuers will not be able to repay investors by rolling over their maturing commercial paper obligations, this facility should encourage investors to once again engage in term lending in the commercial paper market. An improved commercial paper market will enhance the ability of businesses to maintain employment and investment as the nation deals with the coronavirus outbreak.

As part of the CP facility, the Treasury will provide $10 billion of credit protection to the Federal Reserve in connection with the CPFF from the Treasury’s Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF). The Federal Reserve will then provide financing to the SPV under the CPFF. Its loans will be secured by all of the assets of the SPV.

A brief description of the program is attached (see link). More detailed program terms and conditions and an operational calendar will be subsequently published.

Commercial Paper Funding Facility 2020: Program Terms and Conditions
Effective March 17, 2020

Facility

The CPFF2020 will be structured as a credit facility to a special purpose vehicle (SPV) authorized under section 13(3) of
the Federal Reserve Act. The SPV will serve as a funding backstop to facilitate the issuance of term commercial paper by
eligible issuers.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York will commit to lend to the SPV on a recourse basis. The New York Fed will be
secured by all the assets of the SPV. The U.S. Treasury Department—using the Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF)–will
provide $10 billion of credit protection to the FRBNY in connection with the CPFF.

Assets of the SPV

The SPV will purchase from eligible issuers three-month U.S. dollar-denominated commercial paper through the New
York Fed’s primary dealers. Eligible issuers are U.S. issuers of commercial paper, including U.S. issuers with a foreign
parent company.

The SPV will only purchase U.S. dollar-denominated commercial paper (including asset-backed commercial paper
(ABCP)) that is rated at least A-1/P-1/F-1 by a major nationally recognized statistical rating organization (NRSRO) and, if
rated by multiple major NRSROs, is rated at least A-1/P-1/F-1 by two or more major NRSROs, in each case subject to
review by the Federal Reserve. 1

Limits per issuer

The maximum amount of a single issuer’s commercial paper the SPV may own at any time will be the greatest amount of
U.S. dollar-denominated commercial paper the issuer had outstanding on any day between March 16, 2019 and March 16,
2020. The SPV will not purchase additional commercial paper from an issuer whose total commercial paper outstanding to
all investors (including the SPV) equals or exceeds the issuer’s limit.

Pricing

Pricing will be based on the then-current 3-month overnight index swap (OIS) rate plus 200 basis points.
At the time of its registration to use the CPFF, each issuer must pay a facility fee equal to 10 basis points of the maximum
amount of its commercial paper the SPV may own.

Termination date

The SPV will cease purchasing commercial paper on March 17, 2021, unless the Board extends the facility. The New York
Fed will continue to fund the SPV after such date until the SPV’s underlying assets mature.

Now the bad news: by launching the Lehman playbook, the Fed is telegraphing that the US is now facing systemic risk which also includes the banks and corporations, something which was missing until now. Which is why after a brief kneejerk reaction higher, markets may fade it all and crash to new lows especially if the market demands to see what if any other ammunition the Fed has left, with expectations that sooner or later the Fed will do as Yellen hinted three months ago when she said that the Fed will eventually have to buy stocks.

end
Then: despite the Commercial Paper bailout the all important FRA–OIS cross blew out indicating that there is a huge dollar shortage (namely Eurodollars) as explained above
(zerohedge)

Dollar Shortage Unexpectedly Surges After Fed Commercial Paper Bailout

The stock market is rallying, VIX is falling, and bond yields are rising modestly following The Fed’s decision to reinstate its Commercial Paper bailout facility (CPFF).

As Bloomberg notes, the spread of Libor to overnight index swaps should tighten as the Federal Reserve ramps up the reinstated Commercial Paper Funding Facility (CPFF).

Though we think the Fed and the Treasury are generally concerned about liquidity, a freezing of the CP market for industrial companies is a larger risk than for financial firms during the current crisis, in our view.

In 2007-09, asset-backed CP was the major risk, but today that’s less of a worry.

Industrial companies have few options other than CP for short-term financing, unlike financials, which can tap the discount window and other liquidity sources.

However, the FRA-OIS spread has spiked higher indicating rising stress in the financial system’s liquidity markets…

It would appear The Fed’s “whack-a-mole” may have ‘solved’ one problem (corporate liquidity crisis) but the dollar/liquidity shortage in the global financial system is worsening (which is odd, since if companies did not have access to CPFF they would be forced to drawdown all revolvers and crush the financial system further).

Additionally, as BofA warns:

“This facility does nothing to assist the money funds trying to raise cash and address outflows” implying The Fed will have to unleash another backstop.

In fact, the U.S. probably needs a $2 trillion asset-bailout program plus a massive loan program to provide consumer relief and to “salvage viable companies that are struggling,” Guggenheim Partners Global Chief Investment Officer Scott Minerd said Tuesday in a note to clients.

“Given the size of our economy relative to where it was 10–15 years ago, it would probably be appropriate for Congress to pass a TARP-style program of $2 trillion,” Minerd said in the note.

Minerd’s expectation is that there is no economic growth in the near term, that we’ve probably already entered a global recession.

end

Boeing which had repurchased over 100 billion dollars of its own stock is down graded to BBB and most importantly is seeing a short term bailout

 

(zero hedge)

Boeing, Which Repurchased Over $100BN In Stock, Is Downgraded To BBB, Seeks “Short-Term” Bailout

Just hours after S&P took the machete to Exxon’s long standing AA+ credit rating, moments ago the rating agency went after the company which until just a few weeks ago seems invincible, and whose stock price has crashed from $350 to $130 in a little over a month after it announced it was fully drawing down its revolver: Boeing.

S&P cut Boeing’s credit rating by two notches late on Monday, to BBB from A-, as its “cash flows for the next two years are going to be much weaker than we had expected, due to the 737 MAX grounding, resulting in worse credit ratios than we had forecast.” In addition, S&P notes, “the significant reduction in global air travel due to the coronavirus will likely result in an increase in aircraft order deferrals, further pressuring cash flows.”

And worst of all, Boeing will likely be downgraded again, as S&P kept it on Credit Watch negative, meaning it may be just a matter of time before Boeing is downgraded to junk, making it the world’s most iconic fallen angel.

More details from the downgrade:

 

Cash flow and credit ratios will likely be much weaker than we had expected for the next two years.   We now expect free cash flow to be an outflow of $11 billion-$12 billion in 2020 and an inflow of $13 billion-$14 billion in 2021. This compares to our previous expectation of positive $2 billion in 2020 and $22 billion in 2021.

The significant difference is due to an absence of MAX predelivery payments (PDP) into 2021, higher and more front-loaded cash compensation to airlines, additional cash costs related to the production halt (including supplier support), and lower MAX production rates and deliveries than previously expected.

We are also now expecting weaker cash flow from the rest of the business due to cuts to 787 production (including lower PDPs), delays to the first 777-9 delivery, and lower cash flows at the defense and aftermarket segments.

This results in higher debt levels in 2020 (with balance sheet debt peaking at more than $46 billion, including the debt from the Embraer joint venture) and a weaker improvement in 2021, with funds from operations (FFO) to debt in 2020 now likely to be only about 5% (previous expectation was 29%) and about 30% in 2021 (previous expectation was 75%). This forecast remains highly uncertain with the potential for increased downside from the coronavirus.

Why is S&P really taking this draconian action, which could topple one of the beacons of US manufacturing into junk status? Simple: in the past two years, Boeing feasted on cheap debt, doubling its debt load in one year.

But wait there’s more.

Just a few days after drawing down on its revolver, Bloomberg reported moments ago that Boeing is now also seeking “short-term aid” in talks with the White House and lawmakers; in other words a “bailout.”

  • *BOEING SEEKS SHORT-TERM AID IN TALKS W/WHITE HOUSE, LAWMAKERS
  • *BOEING AID WOULD BE FOR ITSELF, SUPPLIERS, AIRLINES AMID VIRUS
  • *BOEING TRYING TO AVOID LAYOFFS, SUPPLIER MELTDOWN

We have one small problem with that: while Boeing was perfectly happy to load up on as much debt as it could over the past decade, the bulk of the proceeds was used for none other than enriching its shareholders and management, with zero consideration for those same employees and suppliers that the company suddenly cares so much about now. And Boeing certainly didn’t care about its passengers and clients when it cut every corner it could find to design the 737 MAX, a plane that was “designed by clowns, who are in turn supervised by monkeys.”

As the chart below shows, Boeing has repurchased over $100 billion in stocks since 2013, helping push its stock to all-time highs not that long ago.

So, no, nobody in their right minds should give Boeing even one penny in “short term aid”. Instead, management and the board should be ordered to sell as much stock as they need – you know, the opposite of buying it back – to maintain the business, even it means sending the stock price crashing far lower.

Because it’s called capitalism, and because there is no reason why taxpayers should foot the bill for a company which instead of saving cash when times were good, was handing it out to shareholders and a handful of executives, and which should now for some insane reason be eligible for a bailout when times suddenly go bad.

No: force Boeing – and others like it that spent billions repurchasing its stock while incurring massive amounts of debt – to sell its stock. After all that’s what a public company’s stock is – a currency – and just as Boeing could repurchase it when it had cash, and lifted its stock price to all time highs, it should now sell its stock and use the proceeds to fund itself, like any other corporation does when it needs funding. Last time we checked, Boeing’s market cap was $73 billion, and it certainly afford to drop much more as the company now does the buyback in reverse.

This is also a warning to Congress and the White House: if chronic stock repurchasers such as Boeing, are bailed out instead of ordered to find their own sources of liquidity, there will be a mutiny in America and rightfully so, because it was Boeing’s shareholders that got rich on the way up, and now it is somehow up to taxpayers to make sure the company, loaded up with record amounts of debt used to fund buybacks, survives one more quarter.

That, in a word, is bullshit.

END

The USA coronavirus bill stalls as Republicans demand corrections and transparency

(zerohedge)

Coronavirus Bill Stalls As GOP Lawmakers Demand Corrections, Transparency

House Democrats’ coronavirus package which was passed on Saturday has become a point of contention, as Republican lawmakers continue to pick apart the bill negotiated between Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Speaker Nancy Pelosi which garnered a late endorsement from President Trump, according to The Hill.

The bill faces two primary hurdles. First, technical changes had to be dealt with between House Democratic leadership and the White House – which they had hoped to have hammered out on Monday to no avail.

Second, with House lawmakers on a vacation of indefinite length over coronavirus concerns, any agreement will need to clear the house by consent – which isn’t guaranteed at this point.

Republicans have also demanded more transparency, with Rep. Louie Gohmert (R-TX) insisting that the technical corrections be read on the House floor before he’ll let it move to the upper chamber, according to House aides on both sides of the aisle.

“He’s concerned and wants all of the changes to be made public before the vote,” one GOP aide told The Hill.

If Gohmert isn’t satisfied, he could stall the revamped House coronavirus bill until Pelosi is able to bring the chamber back to Washington to vote a second time.

I cannot in good conscience give my consent to something that has not been finished or made available to members of Congress before it is up for a vote,” Gohmert told CNN about the holdup.

The measure, which passed 363-40 on Saturday, includes provisions that would ensure some workers can take paid sick or family leave, bolster unemployment insurance, and guarantee that all Americans can get free diagnostic testing for the coronavirus. –The Hill

GOP Senators have criticized the bill for not doing enough to protect small businesses, or help struggling Americans cover short-term costs while the coronavirus epidemic takes a toll on the economy.

“I and a lot of the other senators who I’ve spoken to over the weekend are worried that we’re not doing enough to get cash in the hands of affected workers and families quickly, so we’re going to be focused this week on how to do just that,” Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Arkansas) told Fox News in a Monday interview.

Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wisconsin) also pushed back against the House bill during a Monday interview with Wisconsin radio station WTMJ, according to The Hill. “Nancy Pelosi is going to make businesses give paid leave when people aren’t working. The businesses are going to pay for that.”

Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) also signaled opposition, saying he wants to insert additional protections for small businesses into the House bill.

Another potential roadblock was removed on Monday after Senate GOP leaders cut a deal to extend three USA Freedom Act provisions for 77 days, along with allowing a handful of amendment votes once they adopt the deal passed by the House last week.

The House bill pairs an extension of the intelligence programs with certain changes to the court created by the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA). Recall this is the same court which the Obama FBI tricked into granting a surveillance warrant on a Trump adviser during the 2016 US election, only to issue slaps on the wrist all around and carry on with business as usual.

We’re working on trying to process both of these measures. Those discussions have been underway over the weekend, and we’re hoping to move with dispatch on both the House-passed bill, once we get it, and some way to move forward with the FISA issue as well,” Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell told reporters.

Senators have urged leadership to agree to a short-term extension so they can turn their immediate attention to the coronavirus legislation.

Senators in both parties had urged leadership to agree to a short-term extension so they can focus on the coronavirus package.

The FISA program can also be extended with Senator [Mike] Lee’s [R-Utah] proposal for a 45-day extension and future consideration of the House bill with six amendment votes. That could all be done by [unanimous consent] as well. Given this pandemic, time is of the essence and we should not delay,” Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) said in a statement.

Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.), the vice chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, indicated that he could support a short-term extension.

If the alternative is staying dark, I’ll take an extension,” Warner said.

Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) added that the FISA program needs broader reviews and that the Senate should instead pivot to the coronavirus legislation.

FISA needs to be carefully reviewed. That takes time. That can wait. The emergency response to #coronavirus should be the first order of business in the Senate tomorrow. There is no reason for this to take days & days,” Hawley tweeted on Sunday. –The Hill

McConnell faces greater pressure from within his own party over the coronavirus legislation – as any amendments would mean the bill is bounced back to the House, which is now on the aforementioned indefinite break.

END

Massive layoffs in the New York area as 10,000’s lose their jobs

(zerohedge)

Here Come The Mass Layoffs: New York Unemployment Site Goes Down After “Tens Of Thousands” Lose Their Jobs

In many ways the US economy is currently in the eye of the coronavirus storm: cities and states are under quarantine lockdown, the CDC has prohibited any groupings of more than 50 people; stores, clubs, restaurants, bars and hotels are voluntarily shuttering indefinitely as the economy grinds to a halt and yet besides a tapestry of ghost cities across the nation, the immediate impact of the devastating viral storm on the service economy has yet to manifest itself.

But the hurricane is about to hit front and center, and the service-industry mecca of New York City is leading the way.

As the Daily News reports, New York’s unemployment website was overwhelmed Monday as the coronavirus pandemic put tens of thousands of people across the state out of work.

 

Screenshot of crashed Department of Labor website

The flood of suddenly jobless workers hitting the Department of Labor website with applications for unemployment benefits was unleashed by a drastic move by Gov. Cuomo, who announced all of the state’s restaurants, bars, movie theaters, gyms and casinos would close by 8 p.m. Monday to contain the corona outbreak.

So many people tried to apply that the website crashed several times throughout the day, while the DOL’s hotline was so jammed up that callers seeking aid could not get through to someone who could handle their claim.

The unemployed can apply from 7:30 a.m. to 5 p.m. on weekdays. DOL spokeswoman Deanna Cohen said the department saw a “spike in volume comparable to post 9/11,” adding there are more than 700 staffers assigned to handle the high demand.

 

Gabe Friedman, a drag queen who performs under the name Kiki Ball-Change

“I’m completely unable to log in and apply” said 26-year-old Gabe Friedman, a drag queen who performs under the name Kiki Ball-Change. “Me and so many other drag queens are completely out of work for at least two months. If I pay rent at the end of April, I would be broke.”

It’s not just the drag queens that find themselves with zero demand for their unique “skills”: tens of thousands of workers across New York’s service industries have already been, or are about to be let go as their employers are forced to either shut down permanently or hibernate until the economy recovers.

 

The DOL on Sunday waived a seven-day waiting period on unemployment benefits for people out of work due to coronavirus — but that concession proved to be moot as many people could not apply at all.

Rita Lee, 57, who works in the film industry (hopefully not as a drag king), said she started to apply Sunday night after movie productions shut down across the city. She hit a wall once applications opened Monday.

From 11 a.m. to 3 p.m. Lee tried and failed to apply on the website, saying she kept “getting either a system or server error message, or the page will never load.”

“I’ve called all the toll-free numbers, which are recordings that redirect you to a main menu or a message saying that all the operators are overloaded now and to call back,” said Lee. “Can’t reach a human to help.”

David Stollings, a sound engineer at a now-shuttered Broadway theater, called the situation a doozy. “I got the site to load once,” said Stollings. “Before this it was just not loading at all.”

Marnia Halasa, a Manhattan-based figure skating coach, said she was also unable to apply and became worried about paying rent. “What if I have to blow the New York popsicle joint and run back to Ohio to live with my father?,” asked Halasa, who’s lived in the city for 28 years.

* * *

While it is not clear how many New Yorkers will lose their jobs due to the pandemic, Empire Center founder E.J. McMahon told the NYDN the hit could be worse than the Great Recession of the late 2000s when roughly 370,000 people lost their jobs in a more than two-year span.

“The website crashed, that’s evidence that there has never been anything like this so quickly,” said McMahon. “You can fix a computer glitch. But I don’t think the problem is how the safety net operates. I think the problem is how the economy operates in the future for all these people.”

Incidentally, the chief economist of a multi-billion macro hedge fund advised us that they are now modeling approximately 10 million job losses over the next two to three months. We leave it up to readers to decide if that’s too little, too much or just right.

END

skynews/coronavirus/New York/LosAngeles/update

(AP)

Coronavirus: US cities put into lockdown as COVID-19 cases worldwide overtake China

Travel bans are brought in across the world as the infection total tops 169,000 with more than 6,500 deaths.

Empty street is seen in Manhattan borough following the outbreak of coronavirus disease (COVID-19), in New York City, U.S., March 15, 2020. REUTERS/Jeenah Moon
Image:Streets in New York (left) and Los Angeles (right) were deserted 

New York’s mayor has ordered restaurants, bars and cafes to only sell food on a takeaway or delivery basis as the city battles to halt the spread of COVID-19.

Bill de Blasio also moved to close nightclubs, cinemas, theatres and concert venues.

end

 

US Postpones April 15 Tax Deadline By 90 Days

In news that will delight millions of Americans – at least those who end up owing Uncle Sam a tax bill instead of getting a refund – the US government will postpone the April 15 tax-payment deadline for tens of millions of taxpayers by 90 days, giving Americans roughly 3 months pay their 2019 income-tax bills in an unprecedented move.

The IRS, under the authority of President Trump’s national-emergency declaration, will waive interest and penalties as well, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said at the White House Tuesday. The delay will be available to people who owe $1 million or less and corporations that owe $10 million or less.

The extension was granted to give taxpayers a financial cushion as households and businesses cope with the sudden crash in economic activity caused by the coronavirus outbreak which has brought the US economy to a halt. The move could provide households with hundreds of billions of dollars in temporary liquidity, Mnuchin said last week in previewing the government’s actions.

“We are going to use all the tools we have,” Mr. Mnuchin said on Tuesday. “And what tools we don’t have, we’re going to go to Congress.”

Meanwhile, those who are owed money from Uncle Sam will get it as the IRS will continue to process tax refunds, and Mnuchin urged people who can file their tax returns to do so. Many taxpayers who expect refunds file soon after the IRS opens filing in late January. That is particularly true for low-income households that benefit from the earned-income tax credit, which gives them cash.

About three-quarters of households typically receive refunds, and the IRS will still process returns and send out cash. However, people who file closer to the deadline typically owe money and are waiting to pay. They will benefit the most from Tuesday’s announcement, as will businesses that are worried about their cash flow.

While Mnuchin said last week that the tax deadline would be delayed for all but the superrich, his Tuesday announcement was the first explanation of the length of the delay and how it might work. The tax agency hasn’t yet released full details about how the delay will work.

According to official IRS data, as of March 6, the IRS had received 68 million individual income-tax returns, and since this is less than half of the returns that the IRS normally gets, it means that tens of millions of people can benefit from the relaxed deadlines.

Even if the IRS wanted to process all the tax filings it wouldn’t be able to do so: the tax agency adjusted its own operations during the outbreak, shifting many employees to remote work, according to a message that Commissioner Charles Rettig sent to workers late Friday. In addition, Rettig limited travel, gave employees the option of avoiding face-to-face contacts with taxpayers and stopped those in-person contacts in heavily affected areas such as New York and Seattle.

end

iv) Swamp commentaries)

What a joke:  The Dept of Justice files to drop the charges against those Russian Bot farms that actually showed up to fight the MNueller indictment.

Thus we have no Russian convictions on meddling.

(zerohedge)

DOJ Files To Drop Charges Against Russian ‘Bot Farms’ That Fought Mueller Indictment

Less than a year after a US District court judge dealt a blow to the “Russian active measures” talking point when she ruled that Robert Mueller failed to link them to the Kremlin, the Justice Department has moved to drop all charges against the shell companies accused of interfering in the 2016 US election.

Mueller charged the companies, Concord Management and Concord Consulting in 2018 – along with 13 Russians and another company, the Internet Research Agency – in what prosecutors claimed was a sophisticated scheme to “knowingly and intentionally”  divide America through disinformation and election interference.

To Mueller’s surprise, Concord actually showed up to a Washington courtroom to fight the charges – which Mueller’s team tried to delay by claiming that Concord never served in the case, as they didn’t ‘properly’ answer the special counsel’s summons. When Concord argued that they appeared as provided by the Federal Rules of Criminal Procedure, US District Court Judge Dabney Friedrich agreed.

I don’t think anyone (including Mueller) anticipated that any of the defendants would appear in court to defend against the charges. Rather, the Mueller prosecutors seem to have obtained the indictment to serve a public relations purpose, laying out the case for interference as understood by the government and lending a veneer of respectability to the Mueller Switch Project.

One of the Russian corporate defendants nevertheless hired counsel to contest the charges. In April two Washington-area attorneys — Eric Dubelier and Kate Seikaly of the Reed Smith firm — filed appearances in court on behalf of Concord Management and Consulting. Josh Gerstein covered that turn of events for Politico here. –Powerline Blog

Prosecutors fought tooth and nail to keep confidential information out of Concord’s hands – arguing that the defendants would obtain details about the government’s sources and methods. Judge Friedrich, however, ruled last September that it was “significant and prejudicial that the government itself drew a link between these defendants and the Russian government,” adding “In short, the Court concludes that the government violated Rule 57.7 by making or authorizing the release of public statements that linked the defendants’ alleged activities to the Russian government…”

Aaron Maté

@aaronjmate

Federal judge has issued a significant rebuke of a core Mueller claim. Mueller claims that the IRA — a Russian troll farm — was the 2nd of “two principal interference operations” by Russian gov’t. But as judge notes, Mueller’s implied link between IRA & Russian gov’t was false:

View image on TwitterView image on Twitter

Aaron Maté

@aaronjmate

This is a major blow not just to Mueller but to the entire “Russian Active Measures” talking point. As the judge acknowledges, the IRA (which, btw, put out juvenile clickbait mostly unrelated to the election) is a private entity & Mueller never establishes a Kremlin connection.

View image on TwitterView image on Twitter

So, with trial approaching next month, prosecutors recommended that the Justice Department drop the charges against the companies in order to preserve national security interests and, as the New York Times describes it, “prevent Russia from weaponizing delicate American law enforcement information.” Another factor was that the defendants – even if found guilty, would be difficult to meaningfully punish in the United States.

“Concord has been eager and aggressive in using the judicial system to gather information about how the United States detects and prevents foreign election interference,” prosecutors said in a Monday court filing.

Of note, the day the charges were levied against the Russians which included allegations of a wide-ranging influence campaign over social media, former Facebook then-VP of advertising Rob Goldman admitted in a series of tweets that the majority of advertising purchased by Russians on Facebook occurred after the election – and their strategy was to “sow discord and divide Americans”, as opposed to help Donald Trump win.

Rob Goldman

@robjective

The majority of the Russian ad spend happened AFTER the election. We shared that fact, but very few outlets have covered it because it doesn’t align with the main media narrative of Tump and the election. https://newsroom.fb.com/news/2017/10/hard-questions-russian-ads-delivered-to-congress/ 

Hard Questions: Russian Ads Delivered to Congress – About Facebook

What was in the ads you shared with Congress? How many people saw them?

about.fb.com

Rob Goldman

@robjective

The main goal of the Russian propaganda and misinformation effort is to divide America by using our institutions, like free speech and social media, against us. It has stoked fear and hatred amongst Americans. It is working incredibly well. We are quite divided as a nation.

Hillary Clinton, meanwhile, paid a former UK spy to use Russian sources in a sham dossier, which the Obama FBI used to obtain a warrant to spy on the Trump campaign – while rumors of the Trump colluding with Russia were seeded to the media a month before the election by said operative. Meddlingly.

 

 

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

The most important factor to consider now is that the troubled banks or institutions that created the funding crisis in September have not been identified – nor has their entanglements with other banks and institutions.

The transparency that many vow to treasure is a repugnant concept to big banks and central banks.

The Fed did $129.6B overnight repos and $18.45B of term repos at the normal operation time on Monday.  At 11:43 ET, the Fed announced it would do an additional $500B of overnight repos.

WSJ: U.S. Economy Slides into the Monetary Black Hole – The Federal Reserve is now officially spent. Saving the U.S. economy from this point forward is now up to someone else.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-economy-slides-into-the-monetary-black-hole-11584364910

We also do not know the depth and duration of the economic downturn that has commenced.  Obviously, the economic damage will be determined by the speed at which the Covid-19 crisis is resolved.

Kuroda Remains Wary over Deeper Negative Rates like Lagarde [BoJ will monetize more ETFs]

BOJ opts instead to buy up to 12 trillion yen of ETFs

Offers new loan program, more J-REIT, corporate-bond purchases

    While an apparent doubling of the pace of the bank’s buying of exchange-traded funds to 12 trillion yen ($113 billion) a year seemed to lift markets at first, the response soon cooled as investors realized that putting a high bar on how much the BOJ can buy is largely an extension of its existing flexibility on purchases… Already before Monday’s meeting, the BOJ bought ETFs at an annualized pace of 14.9 trillion yen…  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-16/boj-doubles-etf-target-holds-key-rate-steady-after-fed-cut

IMF says it’s ready to mobilize its $1 trillion lending capacity to fight coronavirus

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/16/imf-says-its-ready-to-mobilize-its-1-trillion-lending-capacity-to-fight-coronavirus.html

The helicopter money, to the tune of about $335B per month, could be on the way!

White House is considering cash payments to U.S. workers, as Mitt Romney gets behind plan to give $1,000 to every American E

WaPo: U.S. airlines seek more than $50 billion from the government to deal with coronavirus fallout

@EmeraldRobinson: There should be no bailout for the airlines unless they add 6 inches of legroom to every economy seat. And they double the size of every bathroom. Let’s get something for our money.

WaPo: France imposes 15-day lockdown to slow spread of coronavirus

[House] Coronavirus bill needs a do-over while small businesses chafe [You can’t make this up!]

The House will have to vote once more on the COVID-19 aid package the chamber passed in the wee hours of Saturday morning due to agreed-upon “technical” changes that didn’t make it into the version that eventually hit the floor.  The do-over gives small businesses, unhappy with provisions requiring them to offer up to 12 weeks of paid leave to their workers, time to lobby for additional changes when the measure reaches the Senate

https://www.rollcall.com/2020/03/15/coronavirus-bill-needs-a-do-over-while-small-businesses-chafe/

Israeli virologist urges world leaders to calm public, slams ‘unnecessary panic’

‘People think this virus is going to attack them all, and then they’re all going to die,’ says Prof. Jihad Bishara. ‘Not at all. In fact, most of those infected won’t even know it’

https://www.timesofisrael.com/israeli-virologist-urges-world-leaders-to-calm-public-slams-unnecessary-panic/

@EmeraldRobinson: The CDC is totally responsible for our lack of readiness for the virus. It declined to use the standard test. Then it built a test which failed quality control. Then it blocked patients from getting tested. The CDC showed no urgency as the pandemic spread.

ACH MONTH during the coronavirus crisis

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8117729/White-House-considering-cash-payments-American.html

@Techno_Fog: Wow. The DOJ moves to dismiss the charges against the Russian Company (Concord) who conducted the alleged “information warfare against the US.” The troll case will be dismissed w/ prejudice.  How embarrassing for Team Mueller.

 

@Barnes_Law: The only case Mueller brought to prove “Russian interference” w/ any defense is now being dismissed by DOJ b/c prosecutors knew they couldn’t win at trial. Repeat: the DOJ could not find a single case they could successfully prosecute to prove any act of “Russian interference.”

 

@jsolomonReports: Senior Obama DOJ officials privately told Mueller they were alarmed by FBI treatment of Flynn, memos show. Believed threat of Logan Act prosecution was a “stretch” and Flynn was not properly allowed to have legal counsel.

https://justthenews.com/accountability/political-ethics/yates-other-obama-doj-officials-sounded-alarm-about-fbis-treatment

 

Last week, we opined that the 2020 Campaign rhymes with the 1984 Campaign.  Biden committed to a female VP.  The rationale is that Trump is weak with women, especially suburban women, the swing voters.  In 1984, Mondale chose Geraldine Ferraro as VP for the same reason.  Mondale lost 49 states.

 

Durham probe expected to end this summer: sources – One source suggested the investigation could end as soon as July, while another said it could be closer to September, based on Durham’s progress, which could be hindered by the coronavirus pandemic rocking the nation and the globe…

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/durham-probe-expected-to-end-this-summer-sources

 

@paulsperry_: At the heart of this entire world health crisis is China’s jinbu sorcery. The Chinese believe wild animals have mystical properties–enhancing male potency or female beauty & fertility–& selling them live makes the jinbu stronger. It’s superstitious rubbish & it’s killing people.  It’s no coincidence that the Wuhan Pneumonia (aka COVID-19) and the Guangdong Pneumonia (aka SARS) broke out during the winter months in China. Chinese jinbu mysticism believes winter is the season when the body needs more “jinbu” wild animals eaten fresh or raw from wet markets.

 

@realDonaldTrump: It is reported that, after destroying his life & the life of his wonderful family (and many others also), the FBI, working in conjunction with the Justice Department, has “lost” the records of General Michael Flynn. How convenient. I am strongly considering a Full Pardon!

 

Flynn Atty @SidneyPowell1: Thank you Mr. President, the persecution of @GenFlynn is an egregious injustice. @FBI fully exonerated him of all things Russia by memo of 1/30/17. Comey hid that & lied to you to create obstruction hoax against you from 1/14/17 meeting. Explained at https://t.co/uekQxvInlf

 

Lib Law Prof Turley: Judge attacking conservatives spotlights bias in court system

District Court Judge Lynn Adelman denounced what he sees as raw ideological bias on the Supreme Court… He declares the pledge by Roberts to “call the balls and strikes” a “masterpiece of disingenuousness.” Adelman attacks the five conservative justices as that “hard right majority” that has now been “actively participating in undermining American democracy.” Conversely, the voting bloc of four liberal justices on the Supreme Court appears to be a masterpiece of righteousness to Adelman…

Donald Trump seems to have a knack for bringing out the worst in people, a technique that has paid off for him… [We’ve said this repeatedly – his super power is making opponents go crazy.]

https://thehill.com/opinion/judiciary/487564-judge-attacking-conservatives-spotlights-bias-in-court-system

Gov. J.B. Pritzker closes schools to be safe, but doesn’t dare touch the election

Houses of worship, too, are closing due to the pandemic. And the major league sports have shut down… They’ve all suspended their seasons just to be safe, to protect us from the virus, and to protect themselves and their leagues from lawsuits.  The pandemic is serious business…

Illinois elected officials have been virtue-signaling for days, telling us all to be responsible and to avoid social contact… The Illinois political class wants you to go to the polls and stand in line with strangers — who may or may not cough — in tight places along with mostly elderly election judges and cast your ballots on Tuesday… Elections are politics. And in Illinois, there is nothing as serious as that.

https://www.chicagotribune.com/columns/john-kass/ct-coronavirus-illinois-pritzker-kass-20200314-sepetz5am5azdm2jq3eqlzpgna-story.html

@GallupNews: Half of Americans, a new high in Gallup’s 51-year trend, say U.S. spending on national defense and the military is “about right.” http://on.gallup.com/2TRuzv0

THAT IS ALL FOR TODAY

I WILL SEE YOU TOMORROW

H

 

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: