MARCH 25//COMEX IS AGAIN BROKEN AS FUTURE PRICES MUCH HIGHER THAN SPOT AS THE CROOKS ARE DESPERATE TO SUPPLY METAL//SPOT GOLD DOWN $11.40 TO $1613.40//SPOT SILVER PRICE IS UP 44 CENTS TO $16.55//CORONAVIRUS UPDATE AND WHAT THAT WILL DO TO THE ECONOMIC SCENE//SWAMP STORIES AS WELL//

GOLD::$1613.40  DOWN $11.40  

 

 

 

Silver:$14.55//UP $0.44  (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Closing access prices:

 

 

 

Gold : $1615.00

 

SILVER:  $14.44

 

AGAIN,today, the gold market was totally broken as future prices where much higher than spot prices.  Gold was also in backwardation with quite a few months higher than succeeding months.  The comex is desperate to fix things but they have no available gold.

Physical gold is around 200 dollars per oz higher than the paper spot price

Silver is double the spot price.

 

 

 

 

 

COMEX DATA

 

 

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING:  294/377

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  MAR CONTRACT: 377 NOTICE(S) FOR 37,700 OZ (1.1726 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  2524 NOTICES FOR 252,400 OZ  (7.8506 TONNES)

 

 

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR MARCH

 

 

64 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 320,000  OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month: 4340 for 21,700,000 oz

 

BITCOIN MORNING QUOTE  $6485 DOWN $240 

 

BITCOIN AFTERNOON QUOTE.: $6628 DOWN 117

GLD AND SLV INVENTORIES:

WITH GOLD DOWN $11.40: WITH NO PHYSICAL TO BE FOUND ANYWHERE:

WE HAD A STRONG DEPOSIT OF 11.99 TONNES

 

GLD: 935.98 TONNES OF GOLD//

 

 

WITH SILVER UP 44 CENTS TODAY:

 

TWO HUGE PAPER DEPOSITS

I)7.369 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//

II) 2.239 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//

 

 

RESTING SLV INVENTORY TONIGHT:

SLV: 385.387  MILLION OZ./

 

 

 

 

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Let us have a look at the data for today

 

 

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IN SILVER THE COMEX OI FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 6070 CONTRACTS FROM 156,770 DOWN TO 150,700 AND FURTHER FROM OUR NEW RECORD OF 244,710, (FEB 25/2020.  THE LOSS IN OI OCCURRED DESPITE OUR HUGE 100 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. WE MAY HAVE HAD SOME LONG LIQUIDATION BUT THAT DOES NOT MAKE MUCH SENSE.  IT SEEMS THAT MOST OF THE LOSS IN OI IS DUE TO  BANKER SHORT COVERING PLUS AN ATMOSPHERIC EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE AND A STRONG INCREASE IN AMOUNT STANDING AT THE COMEX. WE HAD A HUGE NET LOSS IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 1715 CONTRACTS  (SEE CALCULATIONS BELOW)

 

 

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:,

; MARCH:  00 AND MAY: 3754 AND JULY: 0 ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  3754 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 3754 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 3754 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 18.77 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 100 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

7.32     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

2.630     MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOV.

20.970   MILLION OZ  FINAL STANDING IN DEC

5.075     MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JAN

1.480    MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN FEB

21.910  MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING FOR MAR

 

TUESDAY, AGAIN OUR CROOKS USED COPIOUS PAPER IN ORDER TO LIQUIDATE SILVER’S PRICE…AND THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE 100 CENTS).. AND, OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS MAY HAVE BEEN SUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE SOME  SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR POSITIONS. AS WE DID HAVE A HUGE NET LOSS OF 2316 CONTRACTS OR 11.58 MILLION OZ ON THE TWO EXCHANGES!

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF MARCH:

80,558 CONTRACTS (FOR 18 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 80,558 CONTRACTS) OR 402.750 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 4475 CONTRACTS OR 22.58 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF MAR: 402.75 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 57.53% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

 

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2020 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          843.96 MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2020 EFP TOTALS SO FAR: 181.61 MILLION OZ

FEB 2020 EFP’S TOTAL :  ……     259.600 MILLION OZ

MARCH EFP’S SO FAR…..          402.75 MILLION OZ (18 TRADING DAYS AND ALREADY HUGELY SURPASSES FEB AND JAN MONTHLY TOTALS)

 

 

RESULT: WE HAD A CONSIDERABLE SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 6070, DESPITE THE VERY STRONG $1.00 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /TUESDAY… THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A HUMONGOUS SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 3754 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER

 

TODAY WE LOST A STRONG :  2316 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: (DESPITE THE 100 CENT GAIN IN PRICE)

 

THE TALLY//EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

i.e 3754 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH DECREASE OF 6070 OI COMEX CONTRACTS.AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A  100 CENT GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER/ AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $14.11 // TUESDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY AS WELL AS A HUGE INCREASE IN QUEUE JUMPING!! 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 0.7835 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 112% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW  MAR DELIVERY MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 64 NOTICE(S) FOR  320,000 OZ OF SILVER.

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018. AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.70//TODAY’S RECORD OF 244,705 IS SET WITH A PRICE OF: 18.91 (FEB 25/2020)

 

.

 

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 10.025 MILLION OZ/ SEPT 43.030 MILLION OZ//OCT: 7.665 MILLION OZ//   NOV: 2.630 MILLION OZ//DEC:  20.970 MILLION OZ; JAN:  5.075 MILLION OZ.//FEB 1.480 MILLION OZ//MAR: 21.910 MILLION OZ
  2. THE  RECORD PRIOR TO TODAY WAS SET IN FEB 25/2018:  244,710 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $18.90//.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

 

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 

GOLD

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE  13,893 CONTRACTS TO 548,504 AND FURTHER FROM OUR NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE  LOSS OF COMEX OI OCCURRED DESPITE OUR HUGE RISE IN PRICE OF $67.00 /// COMEX GOLD TRADING// TUESDAY// WE  HAD CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING ALONG WITH ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION ACCOMPANYING AN ATMOSPHERIC  EX. FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED AND YET THIS WAS COUPLED WITH THAT HUMONGOUS RISE IN PRICE ON THE TWO EXCHANGES.  ALL OF THE LOSS WAS DUE TO COMMENCEMENT OF THE LIQUIDATION OF OUR SPREADERS ARRIVING RIGHT ON QUEUE..ONE WEEK BEFORE APRIL EXPIRY. , WE LOST A HUGE 5605 CONTRACTS  (17.43 TONNES)

 

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

 

 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A HUMONGOUS AND CRIMINALLY SIZED 8288 CONTRACTS:

CONTRACTS, FEB>  CONTRACTS; MARCH 00 APRIL: 5458. MAY: 0, AND JUNE 1830. 1000; DEC 1000 AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO//TOTAL: 8288.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 547,334. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG DECREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 5605 CONTRACTS: 13,893 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 8,288 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI LOSS OF 5605 CONTRACTS OR 17.43 TONNES. TUESDAY, WE HAD A HUMONGOUS GAIN $67.00 IN GOLD TRADING…...

AND WITH THAT STRONG GAIN IN  PRICE, SURPRISINGLY WE STILL HAD A STRONG SIZED LOSS IN  TOTAL/TWO EXCHANGES GOLD TONNAGE OF 17.43  TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS/OFFICIAL SECTOR WERE SUPPLYING INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER WITH RECKLESS ABANDON. THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE (GAIN $67.00). AND IT SEEMS THAT THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE ANY GOLD LONGS FROM THE GOLD ARENA WERE UNSUCCESSFUL AS THE ENTIRE LOSS AT THE COMEX WAS DUE TO SPREADER LIQUIDATION. 

 

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:

 WE HAD  A STRONG INCREASE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS  (8288) ACCOMPANYING THE  STRONG LOSS IN COMEX OI.(13,893 OI):  TOTAL LOSS IN THE TWO EXCHANGES:  4435 CONTRACTS.  WE NO DOUBT HAD 1 )HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING, 2.)STRONG INCREASE IN GOLD OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX, AND 3) NO LONG LIQUIDATION  4/ HUGE SPREADER LIQUIDATION///…..COUPLED WITH THAT HUMONGOUS GAIN IN PRICE

 

 

SPREADING OPERATION FOR OUR NEWCOMERS:

WE HAVE NOW COMMENCED IN GOLD THE ILLEGAL SPREADING OPERATION \ FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS:

 

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW STOPPED IN GOLD AS THEY NOW BEGIN TO MORPH INTO SILVER AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW FRONT MONTH WILL BE APRIL.

 

 

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEW, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE SPREADERS AND THE CRIMINAL ELEMENT BEHIND IT:

 

 

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR SILVER..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR GOLD.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEWCOMERS HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

.

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO GOLD AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX SILVER OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MARCH FOR SILVER:

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON  ACTIVE MONTH OF MAR.BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN GOLD WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (APRIL), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2020 INCLUDING TODAY

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF MAR : 309,005 CONTRACTS OR 30,900,500 oz OR 961.13* TONNES (18 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 17,167 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY  (*NEW ALL TIME RECORD FOR A MONTHLY EX. FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 18 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 961.13 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2019, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 961.13/3550 x 100% TONNES =27.07% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD HAS EXPLODED THIS MONTH.

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2020 TO DATE   2185.10  TONNES

JANUARY 2220 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE; : 570.19 TONNES

FEB 2020 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE :            653.78 TONNES

MARCH TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE SO FAR   961.13  TONNES  (//(*18 TRADING DAYS//AND A NEW ALL TIME RECORD ISSUANCE)

 

 

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest in SILVER FELL BY A HUGE SIZED 6070 CONTRACTS FROM 156,770 DOWN TO 151,301 AND FURTHER FROM OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 3/4 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

ALL OF THE LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS DUE TO 1) BANKER SHORT COVERING , 2) THE ISSUANCE OF AN ATMOSPHERIC NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (SEE BELOW), 3) A HUGE INCREASE IN SILVER OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX WITH SOME AMOUNT OF LONG LIQUIDATION (FOR NO APPARENT REASON)

 

EFP ISSUANCE 3758

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 FOR FEB. 0; FOR MAR  0:  AND MAY: 3754; JULY: 00 CONTRACTS   AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 3754 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE OI LOSS AT THE COMEX OF 6070 CONTRACTS TO THE 3754 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A VERY STRONG LOSS OF 2316 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES  11.58 MILLION  OZ!!! AND WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL  18.765 MILLION OZ FOR MAY  NOW 2.660 MILLION OZ FOR JUNE WITH JULY AT 22.605 MILLION OZ AUGUST AT 10.025 MILLION OZ//  SEPT: 43.030 MILLION OZ///OCT: 7.32 MILLION OZ//NOV 2.63 MILLION OZ//DEC: 20.970 MILLION OZ//JAN: 5.075 MILLION OZ//FEB: 1.480 MILLION OZ//MAR: 21.910 MILLION OZ

 

 

RESULT: A HUGE SIZED DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE 100 CENT GAIN IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// TUESDAY. WE ALSO HAD AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED 3754 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON. THE ENTIRE LOSS OF COMEX OI WAS DUE TO SPREADER LIQUIDATION AND THAT HUGE ISSUANCE OF EX. FOR PHYSICALS.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

(report Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)WEDNESDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 59.15 POINTS OR 2.17%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 863.70 POINTS OR 3.81%   /The Nikkei closed UP 1454.28 POINTS OR 1.97%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 5.32%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 7.1029 /Oil UP TO 23.49 dollars per barrel for WTI and 26.32 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.1029 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.1180 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY PAST 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED//CORONAVIRUS  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

 

3b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3C  CHINA

 

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

 

6.Global Issues

 

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

10. important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

iv) Swamp commentaries)

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

 

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A HUMONGOUS 13,893 CONTRACTS TO 548,504 MOVING FURTHER FROM OUR  RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020).  AND THIS STRONG LOSS IN OI WAS SET WITH A HUMONGOUS GAIN OF $67.00 IN GOLD PRICING //TUESDAY’S  COMEX TRADING//). HOWEVER WE ALSO HAD A VERY STRONG EFP ISSUANCE (8,288 CONTRACTS),.  THUS WE HAD 1) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AT THE COMEX AND 2) HUGE SPREADER LIQUIDATION AND THUS WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION EVEN THOUGH OUR TWO EXCHANGES FELL SHARPLY IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST..DESPITE OUR HUMONGOUS GAIN  IN PRICE….  BASICALLY LONGS JUST TRANSFERRED OVER TO LONDON COUPLED WITH CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING AT THE COMEX ACCOMPANYING THE LOSS OF SPREADER CONTRACTS.

 

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MARCH..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 8288 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

 FEB: 0; MARCH 00 AND APRIL: 5458, MAY: 0  JUNE : 1830 AND 1000 FOR DEC AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 8288 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:  5605 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 8288 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE LOST A STRONG SIZED 13,893 COMEX CONTRACTS.  THE BANKERS PROVIDED ALL THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER TO WHICH OUR LONGS DUTIFULLY ACCEPTED AS THEY GOBBLED UP ATMOSPHERIC AMOUNTS OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WITH A HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING ACCOMPANYING THE COMMENCEMENT OF LIQUIDATION OF OUR SPREADERS.

 

 

 

THE BANKERS WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT ROSE BY $67.00). THEY WERE MOST DEFINITELY  UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING ANY LONGS, AS THE TOTAL LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 17.43 TONNES WAS MAINLY DUE TO BANKER SHORT COVERING AND ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE BUT MOSTLY DUE TO THE LIQUIDATION OF OUR SPREADERS.. 

 

 

NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ::  5605 CONTRACTS OR 560,500 OZ OR 17.43 TONNES. 

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT COMMODITY FUTURES OPEN INTEREST SHOULD APPROXIMATE 3% OF TOTAL PRODUCTION.  IN GOLD THE WORLD PRODUCES AROUND 3500 TONNES PER YEAR BUT ONLY 2200 TONNES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE WEST (THUS EXCLUDING RUSSIA, CHINA ETC..WHO KEEP 100% OF THEIR PRODUCTION)

THUS IN GOLD WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:  547,334 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS X 100 OZ PER CONTRACT = 54.73 MILLION OZ/32,150 OZ PER TONNE =  1702 TONNES

THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST REPRESENTS 1702/2200 OR 77.37% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF GOLD.

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 336,174 contracts

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY629,577 contracts//

MARCH 25

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
nil oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz 100.46 oz

 

Delaware

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

nil

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
19 notice(s)
 1900 OZ
(,2177 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
9 contracts
(900 oz)
0.0279 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
2524 notices
252400 OZ
7.8506 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

We had 1 kilobar entries

 

i ) We had 0 deposits into the dealer

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had 0 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan: 0  oz

 

ii) Into everybody else: 0 .

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total deposits: nil  oz

 

 

we had 1 gold withdrawals from the customer account:

i) Out of Delaware:  100.46 oz

 

 

 

total gold withdrawals;  100.46 oz   oz

ADJUSTMENTS: 

two:

a)out of HSBC:  996.710 oz was adjusted out of the customer and this landed into the dealer HSBC

b) Out of JPMorgan;  38,580.00 oz (1200 kilobars) was adjusted out of the dealer and this landed into the customer account of JPMorgan

This is a phony entry but we will deem this a settlement: 1.2 tonnes

 

The front month of MARCH saw its open interest register 386 contracts for a GAIN of 355 contracts.. We had 21 notices filed on TUESDAY so we gained 376 contracts or an additional 37,600 oz will stand on this side of the pond as they refused to morph into London based forwards.  The bankers are seeking rapidly depleting physical supplies of gold on this side of the pond.

 

APRIL HAD  a LOSS of 43,665 contracts DOWN to 151,939 contracts of which 25% of that loss was due to spreader liquidation

May saw its ANOTHER GAIN of 542 contracts to stand at  1404.

June saw a GAIN of 27,756 contracts up to 277,490

 

 

We had 377 notices filed today for 37700 oz

 

 

 

FOR THE  MAR 2020 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 360 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 377 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 294 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the March /2020. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (2526) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  MAR. (386 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today (377 x 100 oz per contract) equals 253,300 OZ OR 7.8786 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this  active month of MAR

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the MAR/2020 contract month:

No of notices served (2526)x 100 oz)  + (386 OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (377 x 100 oz )which equals 253,300 oz standing OR 6.7091 TONNES in this active delivery month which is  a great amount for gold standing for a MAR. delivery month.

We gained 376 contracts or 37,6000 oz will stand for delivery at the comex.

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:  BRINKS

3027.500 OZ  REMOVED TO THE PLEDGED ACCOUNT JAN 10.2020/Brinks

176,211.457 oz NOW PLEDGED  JAN 21.2020/HSBC  5.4807 TONNES

380,014.443 oz PLEDGED  MARCH 2020  JPMORGAN:  11.8200 TONNES

TOTAL PLEDGED GOLD NOW IN EFFECT:  556,225.90  OZ OR 17.3007  TONNES

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES…. WE HAVE ONLY 38.588 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS.

HERE IS WHAT STOOD DURING THESE PAST 7 MONTHS:  AUGUST 27.153 TONNES

SEPT:                                                                      5.4525 TONNES

OCT…………………………………………………………………………..   37.99 TONNES

NOV……                                                                5.3841 tonnes

DEC………………………….                                              45.912 TONNES

JAN……………………                                                    8.448 TONNES

FEB……………………………………………..                             25.611 tonnes

MARCH………………………………………………………..              7.8786 TONNES

total: 163.793 tonnes

 

ACCORDING TO COMEX RULES:

 

IF WE INCLUDE THE PAST 9 MONTHS OF SETTLEMENTS WE HAVE 27.08 TONNES SETTLED

IF WE ADD THE 9 DELIVERY MONTHS: 163.793  tonnes

 

Thus:

163.793 tonnes of delivery –

27.08 TONNES DEEMED SETTLEMENT

 

=136.713 TONNES STANDING FOR METAL AGAINST 38.588 TONNES OF REGISTERED OR FOR SALE COMEX GOLD! THIS IS WHY GOLD IS SCARCE AT THE COMEX.

 

total registered or dealer gold:   1,758,262.945 oz or  54.689 tonnes
which  includes the following:
a) pledged gold held at HSBC   which cannot settled upon   176,211.457 oz x ( 5.4807 TONNES)//
b) pledged gold held at JPMorgan (added March 2020) which cannot be settled upon:  341,434.443 oz (or 10.6200 tonnes)
total pledged gold:  517,645.900 oz or 16.10 tonnes
thus:
registered gold that can be used to settle upon:1,240,617.0  (38.588 tonnes)
true registered gold  (total registered – pledged tonnes  1,240,617.9  (38.588 tonnes)

total registered, pledged  and eligible (customer) gold;   8,734,331.126 oz 271.64 tonnes

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS

 

1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX 

 

2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.

 

3. NO GOLD IS ENTERING THE COMEX

WHY ARE THEY NOT SETTLING?

THE COMEX IS AN ABSOLUTE FRAUD..

WHY ARE THEY NOT SETTLING?

 

THE COMEX IS AN ABSOLUTE FRAUD

end

And now for the wild silver comex results

Total COMEX silver OI FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 6070 CONTRACTS FROM 156,770 DOWN TO 150,700 (AND MOVING FURTHER FROM THE NEW ALL TIME RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON FEB 25.2020(244,710) ECLIPSING OUR PREVIOUS RECORD, AUGUST 25/2018 RECORD (244,196).  THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) . OUR CONSIDERABLE OI COMEX LOSS TODAY OCCURRED DESPITE OUR HUGE  100 CENT INCREASE IN PRICING/TUESDAY.  THE LOSS IN OI WAS MITIGATED WITH 1)  A HUGE ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS 2) HUGE INCREASE IN SILVER OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX, 3)  HUGE  BANKER SHORT COVERING COUPLED WITH WE SOME LONG LIQUIDATION. 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAR.

MAR ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH.

 

THE FRONT MONTH OF MAR HAS A TOTAL OPEN INTEREST OF 106 CONTRACTS  WITH A LOSS OF 18 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 59 CONTRACTS ISSUED TUESDAY SO WE GAINED 41 CONTRACTS OR 205,000 ADDITIONAL OZ WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY AS THEY  REFUSED TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARD CONTRACTS AS WELL AS NEGATING A FIAT BONUS. THEY AGAIN ARE TRYING TO FIND PHYSICAL SILVER ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND TO WHICH THERE IS NONE.

 

THE NEXT CONTRACT MONTH OF APRIL SAW GAIN OF 59 CONTRACTS UP TO 706 CONTRACTS. THE BIG CONTRACT OF MAY SAW ITS OI FALL  BY 3270 DOWN TO 94,120

 

 

We, today, had  64 notice(s)  for 320,000, OZ for the MAR, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

MARCH 25/2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 163,133.450 oz
CNT
Delaware
Scotia

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
199,830.800 oz
Scotia
No of oz served today (contracts)
64
CONTRACT(S)
320,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
42 contracts
 210,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  4340 contracts

21,700,,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

total dealer deposits: 0 oz

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

i)we had  1 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:   0

ii)into Scotia: 199,830.800 oz

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017, 2018 and onward, has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 160.819 million oz of  total silver inventory or 50.11% of all official comex silver. (160.819 million/320/913 million

total customer deposits today: 556,207.600   oz

we had 3 withdrawals:

 

ii) Out of  Delaware:  1984.860 oz

 

iii) Out of CNT:  40422.480 oz

 

 

ii) Out of Scotia:  120,726.110  oz

 

 

 

 

 

total withdrawals;163,133.450  oz

We had 0 adjustments:

 

 

total dealer silver:  82.645 million

total dealer + customer silver:  320.949 million oz

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The total number of notices filed today for the MAR 2020. contract month is represented by 64 contract(s) FOR 320,000 oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in MAR we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 4340 x 5,000 oz = 21,700,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAR.( 106) and the number of notices served upon today 64 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the MAR/2019 contract month: 4340 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of MAR (106)- number of notices served upon today (64) x 5000 oz equals 21,910,000 oz of silver standing for the MAR contract month.

WE GAINED 41 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 205,000 OZ WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND

 

 

 

 

 

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN:  THE COMEX IS UNDER ASSAULT FOR BOTH PHYSICAL GOLD AND SILVER WITH SILVER IN THE LEAD BY FAR. DESPITE  MASSIVE RAIDS, LONGS CONTINUE WITH THEIR HUNT AT THE COMEX FOR PHYSICAL METAL.. IT WILL NOT BE LONG BEFORE WE WITNESS A COMMERCIAL FAILURE..STAY TUNED..WE WITNESSED CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING IN SILVER TODAY AND AN ATTEMPTED BANKER SHORT COVERING IN GOLD WITH ZERO SUCCESS.

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME:82,027 CONTRACTS //

 

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY:129,669 CONTRACTS..,

 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 129,669 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 648 million  OZ  92.6% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott

 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -.80% ((MARCH 25/2020)

2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV  RISES TO +0.34% to NAV:   MAR 25/2020 )

Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ 0.80%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 14.83 TRADING 14.75///DISCOUNT 0.52

END

 

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

MARCH 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.40 TODAY//A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 11.99 TONES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY////INVENTORY RESTS AT 935.98 TONNES

MARCH 24//WITH GOLD UP $67.00 TODAY: A HUGE  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 15.80 TONNES OF GOLD INTO GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 923.99 TONNES..THIS PROVES THAT THE GLD IS A FRAUD AS LONDON SUSPENDED DELIVERY AS WELL AS ALL REFINERS.  THEY HAD NO WAY OF GETTING ANY PHYSICAL OZ INTO ITS INVENTORY//

MARCH 23//WITH GOLD UP $76.00 TODAY: A  HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 21.50 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 908.19 TONNES

MARCH 20//WITH GOLD UP $5.50//A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 7.46 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 922.23 TONNES

MARCH 19/WITH GOLD DOWN 90 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 929.84 TONNES

MARCH 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $48.00: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 929.84 TONNES

MARCH 17/WITH GOLD UP $37.60: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.75 TONNES FROM GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 929.84 TONNES

MARCH  16/WITH GOLD DOWN $30.00/ A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 12.59 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 931.59 TONNES

MARCH 13//WITH GOLD DOWN $73.60: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 9.02 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD FROM THE GLD//

INVENTORY RESTS AT 944.18 TONNES

MARCH 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $55.05 TODAY:  NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/953.26 TONNES

 

MAR 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.95?/A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 10.53 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 953.26 TONNES

MARCH 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.25//A HUGE 8.00 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD DEPOSIT INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 963.79

MARCH 9//WITH GOLD UP $1.50 : NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 955.60 TONNES

March 6/WITH GOLD UP $6.25 A MASSIVE 21.37 PAPER TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 955.60 TONNES

MARCH 5/WITH GOLD UP $25.40//NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 934.23 TONNES

MARCH 4//WITH GOLD DOWN 1 DOLLAR: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.23 TONNES//

MARCH 3//WITH GOLD UP 48.55 TODAY; NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.23 TONNES

MARCH 2//WITH GOLD UP $27.00// no change in gold inventory at the gld//inventory remains  at 934.23 tonnes

FEB 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $73.00 WE LOST NO GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS 934.23 TONNES

FEB 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.45: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.86 TONNES FROM THE GLD

FEB 26./WITH GOLD DOWN  TODAY/ GOLD INVENTORY INCREASES BY 6.15 TONNES//GLD INVENTORY AT 640.09 TONNES

FEB 24/with gold up $28.40//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 933.94 TONNES

FEB 21/WITH GOLD UP $28.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A HUGE PAPER DEPOSIT OF:2.34 TONNES   //INVENTORY RESTS AT 933.94 TONNES

FEB 20/WITH GOLD UP $9.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A HUGE 1.76 TONNES OF GOLD DEPOSIT//INVENTORY RESTS AT 931.60 TONNES

FEB 19/WITH GOLD UP $8.25 TODAY//A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 5.85 TONNES//GOLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 929.84 TONES

FEB 18. WITH GOLD UP $17.00//A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.76 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 923.99 TONNES

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

MARCH 25/2020/Inventory rests tonight at 935.98 tonnes

*IN LAST 786 TRADING DAYS: -8.71 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD

*LAST 686 TRADING DAYS;+ 157.42. TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

MARCH 25/WITH SILVER UP 44 CENTS TODAY: TWO HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: TWO DEPOSITS OF 7.369 MILLION OZ AND 2.239 MILLION OZ OF PAPER SILVER INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 385.387 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 24//WITH SILVER UP 100 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.779 MILLION OZ///

MARCH 23//WITH SILVER UP 70 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A DEPOSIT OF 2.332 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.779 MILLION OZ

MARCH 20//WITH SILVER UP 39 CENTS TODAY: 2 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.026 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV AND THEN A PAPER ADDITION OF 3.638 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 373.447 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 19/WITH SILVER UP 38 CENTS TODAY//A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: ANOTHER 5.597 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR ADDED TO THE SLV INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 370.835 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 18//WITH SILVER DOWN 75 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A MONSTROUS 12.035 MILLION PAPER OZ ADDED INTO INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 365.238 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY; A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.735 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV INVENTORY: INVENTORY RESTS AT 353.203 MILLION OZ///

MARCH 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 177 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESETS AT 356.938 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 13//WITH SILVER DOWN 155 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.893 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 356.938 MILLION OZ;

MARCH 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 77 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.119 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 359.828 MILLION OZ

MARCH 11/SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS:  A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF .467 MILLION OZ AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 360.947 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.414 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 9/NO CHANGE IN INVENTORY LEVELS: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.414 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 6//WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.414 MILLION OZ

MARCH 5//WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY; A SMALL WITHDRAWAL DUE TO FEES ETC//INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 361.414 MILLION OZ..

MARCH 4/SILVER SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.880 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 3/WITH SILVER UP 44 CENTS//A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A LOSS OF 5.75 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV../INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.880 MILLION OZ

MARCH 2//WITH SILVER UP 18 CENTS//NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV..INVENTORY RESTS AT 367.632 MILLION OZ//

FEB 28/ WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS: a loss of 1.867 million oz//inventory rests at 367.632 million oz

FEB 27/WITH SILVER DOWN TODAY: A STRONG GAIN OF 747000 OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV

FEB 26\WITH SILVER DOWN TODAY,A HUGE GAIN OF 5.319 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 368.752 MILLION OZ

FEB 24/WITH SILVER UP 35 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.433 TONNES

FEB 21//WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.433 TONNES

FEB 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.433 TONNES

FEB 19/WITH SILVER UP 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.433 MILLION OZ//

FEB 18/. WITH SILVER UP 42 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.433 MILLION OZ.

 

 

MARCH 25.2020:

SLV INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT  385.387 MILLION OZ.

 

END

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 6.15/ and libor 6 month duration .98

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: – 5.17% (gold not available)

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 3.97%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 0.96

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = -3.01% gold not available

end

 

 

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

Gold Surges 6% On Large Bar Shortage, Massive Demand and Unlimited Currency Creation

◆ GoldCore remains open for business. Stocks of coins and bars have been depleted globally due to massive demand. We are buying coins and bars from clients and we are continuing to buy and sell gold and silver certificates. We are selling coins and bars when we receive stock from clients or directly from our government mint and large refinery suppliers. We are only selling to clients who have cleared funds on account and are on our buyers list.

NEWS and COMMENTARY

Gold up 6% in biggest climb for 11 years amid tight supplies and limitless monetary stimulus

Gold Faces Historic Squeeze With Virus Threatening N.Y. Shortage

Stocks, gold surge on new stimulus from Fed, others

Wall Street surges on hopes of $2 trillion rescue package

Goldman Sachs says it is time to buy gold — the ‘currency of last resort’

CME is asked to change gold delivery rules amid coronavirus lockdown, sources tell Reuters

LBMA acknowledges gold liquidity problems amid price volatility

Dutch bank ABN AMRO closing customer gold accounts

FT: Gold bars in short supply due to coronavirus disruption

Gold has surged nearly 10% from the recent low of $1,481/oz
Watch interview here
Gold in Euros (15 Years)
Gold in GBP (15 Years)

GOLD PRICES (USD, GBP & EUR – AM/ PM LBMA Fix)

24-Mar-20 1599.50 1605.75, 1362.61 1371.47 & 1472.98 1489.49
23-Mar-20 1494.50 1525.40, 1288.86 1312.91 & 1399.60 1411.00
20-Mar-20 1504.45 1494.40, 1275.32 1258.28 & 1400.34 1391.59
19-Mar-20 1480.70 1474.25, 1285.54 1257.83 & 1369.94 1365.89
18-Mar-20 1506.00 1498.20, 1254.50 1271.22 & 1367.00 1378.04
17-Mar-20 1472.35 1536.20, 1212.04 1275.66 & 1331.00 1400.40
16-Mar-20 1504.65 1487.70, 1223.28 1210.54 & 1346.36 1338.93
13-Mar-20 1588.15 1562.80, 1258.61 1248.83 & 1422.66 1407.30
12-Mar-20 1636.65 1570.70, 1284.28 1246.35 & 1457.11 1410.96
11-Mar-20 1662.50 1653.75, 1284.78 1279.01 & 1468.65 1462.25

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Mark O’Byrne
Executive Director

 

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

CME announces new physical delivery bars due to the squeeze on the gold metal

(Kitco News/GATA)

CME resolving physical gold squeeze with 100-ounce, 400-ounce, and 1-kg bars

 Section: 

By Neils Christensen
Kitco News, Montreal
Tuesday, March 24, 2020

Increasing pressure from market players and significant liquidity issues in the gold market are prompting CME Group to make some changes in how it delivers its physical gold.

This evening the futures exchange announced the launch of a new gold futures contract with expanded delivery options that include 100-troy ounce, 400-troy ounce, and 1-kilo gold bars.

… 

The new contract is expected to launch with the first expiration of April 2020, pending regulatory approval, the exchange said.

“This time of unprecedented market conditions has led to growing demand for a broader range of delivery needs for our clients worldwide,” said Derek Sammann, Senior Managing Director and Global Head of Commodity and Options Products, CME Group in a press release:

https://www.cmegroup.com/media-room/press-releases/2020/3/24/cme_group_t…

“By offering a choice of delivery sizes as well as inter-commodity spreads with our benchmark gold futures, this new contract will provide customers with maximum flexibility in managing physical delivery,” Sammann added.

The news comes after an intense trading day in the gold space as the market has seen strong physical demand and dwindling supply. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.kitco.com/news/2020-03-24/CME-resolving-physical-gold-squeez…

end

What a doorknob: Rashida Tlaib wants to print two trillion dollar coins to cover the cost to give universal basic income to all Americans

(Fox News/GATA)

 

Trillion-dollar coins would fund perpetually loaded debit cards for all

 Section: 

Tlaib Wants to Hand Out Debit Cards During Coronavirus, Mint Trillion-Dollar Coins to Cover Cost

By Tyler Olson
Fox News, New York
Tuesday, March 24, 2020

In an attempt to help ease the burden of the coronavirus pandemic on Americans, Rep. Rashida Tlaib, D-Mich., released a plan last week for what is essentially a temporary universal basic income that would be distributed to all individuals in the United States, including illegal immigrants, and be funded by the printing of two $1 trillion coins.

… 

Hey @realdonaldTrump, let’s provide relief from this crisis for people by giving pre-loaded debit cards to every person in America,” Tlaib tweeted over the weekend. “No additional debt — we’ll just mint two coins.”

The plan, outlined on Tlaib’s website, would send a debit card with $2,000 pre-loaded on it to every person in the U.S. and reload it with $1,000 every month “until one year after the end of the Coronavirus crisis.” …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/tlaib-coronavirus-debit-trillion-coins

end

iii) Other physical stories:

CME pushed to change gold delivery rules amid coronavirus lockdown – sources

Kitco News

LONDON (Reuters) – The London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) and several major banks that trade gold have asked U.S. exchange operator CME Group Inc to allow gold bars in London to be used to settle its contracts to ease disruption to trading, sources said.The gap between gold futures on the CME’s Comex exchange in New York widened above London spot prices by as much as $70 per ounce — or 4% — on Tuesday.The two usually remain within a few dollars of one another, and the gap skewed trading in the London market, causing activity to fall.Traders feared shutdowns of air travel and precious metal refineries due to the coronavirus outbreak will make it harder to ship bullion from London to the United States to meet contractual requirements.

London is a key gold storage center, where thousands of tonnes of metal underpin trading, but it uses 400-ounce bars which must be melted down and recast as 100-ounce bars to be accepted by Comex in New York.

The LBMA and executives at major gold-trading banks asked CME to allow 400-ounce bars to be used to settle Comex contracts, said the two sources, both of whom were involved in the discussions.

No one was immediately available for comment at CME after Reuters contacted the company via phone and email.

The rule change would obviate the need to reshape and transport metal, meaning it could remain in vaults in London while ownership is transferred. If this happened spot and futures prices could converge and markets trade normally, sources said.

“It’s totally logical,” said an executive at a gold-trading bank. “In London there’s no shortage of metal.”

The sources said the CME had not yet made a decision, and any change to its rules would likely take several days to implement and require regulatory approval.

The LBMA, which oversees the London trade hub, said it stood ready to support the functioning of the market in any way it could, without commenting further.

It earlier said it had “offered its support to CME Group to facilitate physical delivery in New York.”

END

ABN Amro is forced to abandon its 106 year physical gold business due to new EU rules.  Amro does not have physical delivery and new rules require direct investment.  Owners will have to sell their metal and place them into another physical bullion account

(zerohedge)

ABN Amro Abandons 106 Year Physical Gold Business, Clients Forced To Sell

Seven years ago – to the day – Dutch megabank ABN Amro changed its precious metals custodian rules to “no longer allow physical delivery.”

Have no fear, they reassuringly added, your account will be settled at the bid or offer price in the ‘market’ and “you need to do nothing” as “we have your investments in precious metals.”

Changes in the handling of orders in bullion

On 1 April 2013,. ABN AMRO to another custodian for the precious metals gold, silver, platinum and palladium

You need do nothing. We ensure that we have your investments in precious metals now the new way to handle and administer.

At the time, we wondered if this was the canary in the coalmine of potential physical shortages in the precious metals markets. Soon after we saw notable selling pressure in the gold markets with Spot (physical) selling leading futures lower…

At the time it was unclear who the “other custodian” was but we now know ABN Amro transferred the precious metal trade to the Swiss bank UBS.

Crucially, however, at UBS, it was not possible for customers to actually request the gold or silver.

Which brings us to  today’s news from Trouw.nl, that ABN Amro customers will no longer be able to put their money into physical gold, silver or platinum.

The bank will discontinue these three investment products next Friday.

Customers will have to sell their positions before April 1. If that does not happen, ABN Amro will do this for them at the prevailing price.

The driver for this decision appears to new EU regulations as Trouw explains:

Because the physical delivery of precious metals is not possible, a precious metal purchased through ABN Amro is not a “direct investment”.

Because it is a complex product, ABN Amro must comply with additional regulations.

Those rules  for European financial markets have been tightened.

The cancellation of these accounts by ABN Amro brings to an end a history that goes back to the establishment of the Hollandsche Bank Unie (HBU) in 1914, writes gold trading company Aunexum in retrospect.

Interestingly, as this news breaks, spot gold prices are lagging futures as they both are bid…

With the gold market “breaking down,” as we detailed earlieramid a record surge in demand for physical gold but also a near shut down in supply as the most productive gold refiners, those located in the southern Swiss town of Ticina, namely Valcambi, Pamp and Argor-Heraeus, now appear to be offline indefinitely; we wonder if the timeliness of ABN’s decision is more about avoiding the potential blowback from their ultimate fiduciary duty over clients’ precious metals investments.

Let’s just hope, for the 200 or so private-banking accounts at ABN (and custodied at UBS) that the Swiss bank can get its hands on some of that ‘deliverable’ before time runs out…

Which anyone who has been to APMEX or any other gold seller in the past few days, has discovered – may not be as easy to source as they hope

end

Ronan Manly: LBMA colludes with the Comex — to lock down the gold market?

Submitted by cpowell on 03:55PM ET Wednesday, March 25, 2020. Section: Daily Dispatches

11:58a ET Wednesday, March 25, 2020

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Reviewing the gold delivery difficulties acknowledged this week, Bullion Star researcher Ronan Manly concludes today that the problem is in London with members of the London Bullion Market Association, not with the New York Commodities Exchange, which seldom has had any metal in the first place.

Who, Manly asks, is propping up whom? Is the LBMA propping up the Comex, or is “that famous gold lender of last resort, the Bank of England,” propping up London’s bullion banks?

Manly’s analysis is headlined “LBMA Colludes with the COMEX — to Lock Down the Global Gold Market?” and it’s posted at Bullion Star here:

https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/ronan- manly/lbma-colludes-with-the-com…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

-END-

https://www.jsmineset.com/2020/03/25/comex-warehouses-in-a-city-under-lockdown/

Comex Warehouses In A City Under Lockdown

Posted March 25th, 2020 at 12:08 PM (CST) by J. Johnson & filed under General Editorial.

Great and Wonderful Wednesday Morning Folks,

     Apparently, it’s correction time at the Comex with Gold getting the pressure during London’s watch, but only after Gold reached $1,699.30 before they opened on the island’s trading period with the price right now at $1,627.80, down $33 after being forced down to $1,615.20. We used to have symbols on the monitor, before the algos erased all evidence, that would tell us the markets were in fast trading. This is when the floor’s governing bodies, who used to watch for illegal activity in the pits, would raise both hands up in the air and walk backwards away from the floor, meaning any price is a good price. For brokers outside the pit, the letter “F” next to the price warned everyone about the floor’s activities. Even though those days are gone, today’s movements while writing would have been labeled as FAST. Silver however, is not moving at all with the trade at $14.47, up 21.3 cents after hitting $14.895 with the London low at $14.325. The rallying US Dollar, is having trouble with the value as we see another pullback after our 10% rally with the trade at 101.480, down 76.7 points yet recovering from the low of 101.240 with the high at 102.110. Of course, all this happened before the Comex open and after the White House and Senate have agreed on the “Largest Rescue Package In American History” (to date).

      In Venezuela, Gold is now priced at 16,257.65 Bolivar showing a 402.50 pullback with Silver gaining 5.143 Bolivar with the price at 144.519. Argentina’s currency now has Gold valued at 103,670.88 Peso’s showing a reduction of 2,687.17 with Silver at 921.229 showing an addition of 31.325 A-Peso’s. Over in the land of Turkey, Gold’s price is set at 10,485.65 Lira a reduction of 34.96 with Silver at 93.2488 proving an increase of 2.6136 T-Lira.

      March Silver Deliveries were very active during yesterday’s Comex trading period as the Volume jumped to 167 inside a trading range between $14.075 and $13.36 with the very last physical trade at $13.97 with the adjusted closing price at $14.229. Today we have a Physical Demand Count of 106 up on the board, proving a reduction in count of 18 after all that activity. So far today, we have a Volume of 103 already posted inside a trading range between $14.715 and $14.455, with the last trade at $14.495. Silver’s Overall Open Interest continues to collapse as another 5,848 Overnighters jumped ship, but only after their captain steered the ocean liner directly into an iceberg of titanic size, hitting a $1 rise ($5,000 per contract) leaving 151,302 Overnighters still onboard and in the trade. We’re only 13,000 contracts away from the OI that was held back when Silver went to $49.84. From this point forward, the controllers may simply be out of ammo and are now susceptible to the real purchases since there is no coins, rounds, bars, out there at these prices. Thank you Comex, for being the last place to buy $10 to $8 below the real. Let’s see how you can supply the demands or fail. With Trump demanding he will keep the markets open; you may be the ones forced to deliver.

      March Gold’s Deliveries were also quite active during yesterday’s activities, especially for a cereal month, with to total Volume at 442 inside a trading range between $1,685.50 and $1,592.70 with the last purchase at $1,648.60 and of course the adjusted close at $1,660.20. Today’s early morning post shows yesterday’s huge gain in demand as the Demand count went to 386 proving 355 more purchases were made for physicals with this morning Volume at 106, with a trading range between $1,676.50 and $1,637.40 with the last purchase so far at $1,638.40. Gold’s Overall Open Interest now sits at 548,504 Overnighters showing that same Algo Captain running into yesterday’s huge $100 high berg.

      Spreads for physicals are being blown out as coins, bars, or whatever we can get, is up to $150 over spot for Gold, with Silver’s spreads up to $10, as Comex becomes the cheapest place to buy physicals. Smart buyers are taking advantage of the spreads and jumping into the Comex to make profits in between. All these buyers have to do is take delivery of the Comex bars and send them to a dealer with access to a smelter that will melt that bar down and make it into the sizes and shapes people want in real life. That is “if” they can get the bars. What I mean here is all the Comex warehouses are now in a city under locked down, with London being shut down too and with the help of Boris, who seems to be wearing a brown shirt! With the Canadian Mint shut down, and the US Mint running out of everything, I’m sure these bars will deliver themselves. From where I’m sitting, I don’t see a problem, do you? I am also quite curious about the ratio spread between Au/Ag. Could it be someone not onboard the Algo ship, is trying to stretch the spread till one side breaks? Only time will tell as we go thru an event, epic in the history of man.

      So, remain calm. Have a smile on your face and a prayer for all who are sick. May the recovery be short, so we can start to move forward again. We love our countries, and we are built to make life better. Keep the faith and as always…

Stay Strong!

  1. Johnson

More J.Johnson content is available with purchase of a JSMineset subscription.

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early WEDNESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 7.1029/ GETTING VERY DANGEROUSLY PAST 7:1

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  7.1180   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 59.15 POINTS OR 2.17%

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 863.70 POINTS OR 3.81%

 

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 1454.28 POINTS OR 8.04%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED MOSTLY GREEN EXCEPT GERMAN DAX/

 

 

 

USA dollar index UP TO 101.35/Euro RISES TO 1.0822

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: RISES TO. +.04/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 111.09/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 23.49 and Brent: 26.32

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE DOWN/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO -.30%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 1.58% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.84%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.88: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 2.44

3k Gold at $1629.40 silver at: 14.16   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 21/100 in roubles/dollar) 78.53

3m oil into the 23 dollar handle for WTI and 26 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 111.09 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9796 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0602 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to 0.30%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 0.84% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 1.39%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 6.4436..

Futures Slide After Bailout Deal Struck As Schumer Says Buybacks Banned

The event everyone was waiting for and knew was just a matter of time, resulting in Tuesday’s biggest one-day rally since 1933 – namely the Congressional taxpayer daylight robbery coronavirus bailout deal which started at $850BN and has since grown to $2 trillion (with an additional $4 trillion in Fed purchasing power) – was finally reached just after midnight on Tuesday and in the early minutes of Wednesday.  A vote in the Senate, as well as House approval are still pending.

The result was initial euphoria as the S&P jumped to 2,499 – the exact same high hit last on quad-witching Friday last week… before it rolled over as the news was sold…

… while Treasuries did the mirror image and rebounded with yields sliding to 0.81% as investors waited for details on government rescue packages to counter the hit from the coronavirus.

As US futures faded the news, equity markets across Europe and the U.K. also lost steam from an earlier surge as euro-region leaders inched toward a stimulus accord. The Stoxx 600 index turned red after earlier rising almost 5%

Earlier, Asian stocks fared better, posting their best one-day increase since 2008. All markets in the region were up, with Japan’s Topix Index gaining 6.9% and India’s S&P BSE Sensex Index rising 6.5%. The Topix gained 6.9%, with UT Group and AD Works rising the most. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.2%, with Eastern Gold Jade and Shanghai Yimin Commerce Group posting the biggest advances.

However, the mood reversed shortly after 5am ET, perhaps once investors realized that the deal bans buybacks for the foreseeable future, as the top Senate democrate, Chuck Schumer said the bill will “ban stock buybacks for the term of the government assistance plus 1 year on any company receiving a government loan from the bill.

For a market where buybacks have been the primary buyer of stocks in the past decade, this was hardly welcome news.

As such, investors – who were hoping for U.S. and global equity indexes to post their first back-to-back daily gains since the rout began a month ago, even as economies from Delhi to Milan and Seattle reel from the deepening pandemic – were set to be disappointed. Meanwhile, the number of infections globally continues to mount and Spain reported the largest number of deaths yet in a day, as the world still has a long way way to go before containing the pandemic.

“We still need to see a slowing of the virus cases and a peaking in the U.S.,” Carol Pepper, chief executive officer at Pepper International, told Bloomberg TV. “Because until then we’ll have these huge relief-rally days — then we’ll get a scary day and the market will plunge down again.”

As a result, in addition to risk sliding, WTI crude oil turned lower and Treasuries erased a decline. The dollar initially fell for a second day versus its biggest peers including the euro, however it has since rebounded and threatens to turn green again. The single currency added to Tuesday’s gain as Germany took a step toward declaring a state of emergency to unlock a historic rescue package. A Bloomberg gauge of financial conditions loosened for the first time in six sessions.

Meanwhile, Wall Street analysts who have now shed all pretense of actually analyzing stuff and admitting they are just bailout cheerleaders did what they do best:

“The actions of monetary and fiscal policymakers should help us prevent a Global Financial Crisis-style credit crunch,” Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management, wrote to investors. “Tuesday’s sharp equity rally shows that the combination of central banks’ entire playbook and substantial, direct fiscal support can be well-received by markets.”

We wonder what he will say about Wednesday’s action once we close red.

Elsewhere, the greenback weakened against all G-10 peers apart from the yen, which hovered near a one-month low reached against the dollar on Tuesday. Norway’s krone led Group-of-10 gains, rising more than 2% versus the dollar, supported by better risk sentiment and higher oil prices. The pound extended its recovery into a second day; the Australian and New Zealand dollars also gained as speculative funds flipped short positions.

In rates, yields on Treasuries and Bunds edged higher while the curve came off an earlier flattening move.

 

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 1.5% to 2,400
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 3.3% to 314.07
  • MXAP up 5.6% to 134.49
  • MXAPJ up 4.6% to 427.28
  • Nikkei up 8% to 19,546.63
  • Topix up 6.9% to 1,424.62
  • Hang Seng Index up 3.8% to 23,527.19
  • Shanghai Composite up 2.2% to 2,781.59
  • Sensex up 6.5% to 28,417.57
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 5.5% to 4,998.07
  • Kospi up 5.9% to 1,704.76
  • German 10Y yield rose 3.6 bps to -0.286%
  • Euro up 0.3% to $1.0824
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 1.5 bps to 1.394%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 0.3 bps to 0.878%
  • Brent futures up 1.2% to $27.47/bbl
  • Gold spot down 1.3% to $1,611.50
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.6% to 101.39

Top Overnight News

  • The Trump administration is debating whether to defer payments of duties on imported goods from around the world for three months, people familiar with the talks said
  • German business confidence collapsed the most in three decades after restrictions to slow the spread of the coronavirus forced mass closures of companies and stores across Europe’s largest economy
  • Germany Finance Minister Olaf Scholz urged lawmakers to open up debt limits to combat a crisis that threatens modern life. New borrowing of 156 billion euros ($169 billion), equivalent to half of Germany’s normal annual spending, will be used to fund social benefits and direct aid to virus-hit companies It’s a period of wait-and-see for money markets after the Federal Reserve’s barrage of actions halted a further blow-out in funding spreads. But many problems remain, including the hoarding of dollars
  • The squeeze on U.S. currency is putting pressure on emerging Asia debt. Southeast Asian and Indian government and corporate payments are set to jump 67% in 2022 to $41.9 billion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Dollar payments are expected to peak at $44.4 billion in 2024
  • The Federal Reserve tapped BlackRock Inc. to shepherd several debt- buying programs as the U.S. central bank works to revive an economy reeling from the spread of coronavirus
  • China’s central bank could announce cuts to its benchmark deposit rate in the coming days, the Financial Times, reported, citing two people familiar with the matter

Asian equity markets traded with firm gains as the region took impetus from the historic rally on Wall St where the DJIA jumped by over 2100 points or around 11.4% for its largest daily point gain on record and biggest percentage jump since 1933, with sentiment underpinned by hopes of a stimulus breakthrough which eventually materialized as negotiators reached a deal on the coronavirus stimulus bill and with US President Trump touting a reopen of the US economy by Easter. ASX 200 (+5.5%) surged as the stellar performance stateside reverberated across the region with Real Estate, Industrials and Financials front-running the gains which briefly saw the index notch its biggest intraday gain since October 2008 to briefly surmount the 5k level, while Nikkei 225 (+8.0%) was lifted by the recent JPY-weakness and with the BoJ Summary of Opinions from last week’s emergency meeting suggesting the central bank was flexible and open to another off-schedule meeting. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (+3.8%) and Shanghai Comp. (+2.2%) benefitted from the heightened global risk tone and amid reports the Trump administration is said to mull a 90-day deferral of tariffs on all imported goods from around the world, although the gains were somewhat capped as White House Trade Adviser Navarro refuted the prospects of a tariff deferral and following continued PBoC liquidity inaction. Finally, 10yr JGBs were relatively flat with demand subdued by gains in stocks and in the absence of BoJ purchases in the market today, while the announcement of a coronavirus bill agreement later weighed on prices and to break down support at the 152.00 level.

Top Asian News

  • China’s Central Bank Considering Benchmark Deposit Rate Cut: FT
  • China Auto Shares Pare Gains as Beijing Denies Stimulus Report
  • Pandemic Flags Risks Posed by Share-Backed Debt in India
  • Worldwide Dollar Crunch Raises Red Flags in Asia’s Debt Market
  • India Weighs New Credit Line For Mutual Funds Hit by Cash Crunch

As we stand, European equities have wiped out earlier gains (Eurostoxx 50 -1.4%) following the monumental upside seen on Wall Street and in the APAC session overnight amid a concoction of stimulus announcements from the regions. Focus remains on the States after Senators agreed to the Trump administration’s virus rescue bill – which sources note could be worth USD 2.5tln, and with voting to take place later today although details remain light. Back to Europe, the positive sentiment initally resonated across the region, with Germany’s DAX (-2.2%) reclaiming the 10k milestone. However, the 10k level was conceded therafter alongside reports that ECB’s Lagarde asked EZ Finance Ministers yesterday to seriously consider a one-off joint debt issue of coronabonds; a request that was rejected by northern European nation, however, support came from beyond just the southern states. UK’s FTSE (-1.0%) initially underperformed the region before later receiving a boost due to its large financial, mining and energy exposures. European sectors now mostly red, with the exception of Energy names. Airlines experience a bout of reprieve – potentially on back of the anticipated US stimulus package support for domestic carriers acting as a catalyst; easyJet (+8.7%), Ryanair (+1.5%), and Air France-KLM (+5.7%) all trade closer to the top of the Stoxx 600. Elsewhere, E.ON (+9.2%) was bolstered at the open amid YY improvements in results and underlying utility demand from nations working from home. Finally, Adidas (+3.4%), Puma (+5.6%) and Sports Direct (+10.0%) all see tailwinds emanating from Nike earnings – whose shares show gains in excess of 12% pre-market. In terms of bank calls, UBS sees Stoxx 600 index at 340 by year-end and sees a greater upside in UK equities amid cheaper valuations. The Swiss Bank targets FTSE 100 at 6400. As earning season looms, UBS sees European companies reporting a 33% drop in 2020 EPS, with the expectations incorporating a deep recession forecast.

Top European News

  • German Business Outlook Collapses With Economy Largely Shut Down
  • France Pushes $4.3 Billion Support Package for Startups
  • Spain Thinks Coronabonds Are a Good Idea, Foreign Minister Says
  • Credit Suisse Cut Thiam’s Pay by 15% in Wake of Spy Scandal
  • Thyssenkrupp Expands Job Cuts in Overhaul of Weak Steel Unit

In FX, the Aussie has extended recovery gains vs its US counterpart and outperformance against most G10 peers amidst another broad upturn in risk sentiment or sheer relief that the US Senate has resolved differences on the circa Usd2 tn Stimulus C bill, including Usd400 bn for the TSF that can be multiplied up to 10 times by the Fed. Aud/Usd has now breached the psychological 0.6000 mark on the way through 0.6050 as Aud/Nzd approaches 1.0300 and the Kiwi meets some resistance around 0.5900 in wake of NZ declaring a state of emergency due to COVID-19. Meanwhile, corrective trade and short covering has carried Cable up beyond 1.1900 and over last year’s 1.1959 low, with Eur/Gbp retreating well below 0.9100 as the single currency stumbles into 1.0850 vs the Greenback in wake of more pronounced weakness in Germany’s final Ifo survey compared to preliminary prints. However, Eur/Usd appears well supported above 1.0800 where decent option expiries roll off (1.2 bn), and with the DXY slipping back from 101.920 to 101.150 within a slightly wider 102.000-101.00 range. Elsewhere, the Loonie is also taking advantage of relative weakness in the Buck, but losing impetus alongside WTI between 1.4297-1.4482 parameters.

  • CHF/JPY – The Franc and Yen are narrowly mixed against the US Dollar either side of 0.9800 and 111.00 respectively, but the former holding up better despite waning risk appetite and a sharp deterioration in Swiss investor sentiment.
  • SCANDI/EM – The Norwegian and Swedish Crowns are still in bear retracement mode with Eur/Nok sub-12.0000 and Eur/Sek under 11.0000, while EM currencies are also benefiting from less acute angst over the adverse impact of the coronavirus, for the time being at least as global Central Banks and Governments expend even more efforts to counteract the economic contagion.

In commodities, WTI and Brent front-month futures continued their sentiment-driven climb off near-multi-decade lows, before paring gains amid a broader pullback in sentiment in recent trade. Desks continue to highlight that underlying fundamentals remain largely unchanged, but stimulus hopes provide support for the complex, in the short term at least. Although data has been overshadowed, last night’s Private Inventory data was seemingly constructive for the market – having printed a surprise draw of 1.2mln barrels vs. Exp. build of 2.8mln – traders will now eye the DoE figures for confirmation. That being said, the inventory numbers later today are unlikely to have a sustained impact in prices as the complex takes its cue from macro themes/sentiment. In terms of metals, spot gold trades on either side of USD 1600/oz and re-eyes its 21 DMA to the downside at ~USD 1591.90, with losses seemingly triggered due to increasing flows into riskier assets. Copper prices initially conformed to the risk appetite but have since waned off highs, with relatively uneventful price action in the red metal below 2.25/lb.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Durable Goods Orders, est. -0.95%, prior -0.2%; Durables Ex Transportation, est. -0.4%, prior 0.8%
  • 8:30am: Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, est. -0.4%, prior 1.1%; Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, est. -0.2%, prior 1.0%
  • 9am: FHFA House Price Index MoM, est. 0.4%, prior 0.6%

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

We’re at a fascinating point in markets now as on one hand Europe is on almost total non-essential shutdown mode without an easy exit strategy whereas the US is straddling between this and the sentiment in Donald Trump’s words that we reported yesterday that the country “was not built to be shutdown”. It seems to us that a large part of yesterday’s huge rally was a legacy of Trump taking a more aggressive stance against prolonged shutdowns in his Monday news conference than his Sunday equivalent where his tone was more towards defeating the virus. He expanded on this theme yesterday by repeating a phrase in a tweet that he’d used the previous day that “The cure cannot be worse (by far) than the problem!”. Larry Kudlow, the Director of the National Economic Council, also said to Fox Business that the Trump Administration would look at whether it was possible to reopen places that weren’t “hot zones”. Mr Trump later said he’d like to have economy open by Easter which confirmed a change in tack. Perhaps he was emboldened by an exceptionally strong session that ended with the S&P 500 at the day’s highs and up +9.38% – the tenth best day on record out of 24,067 trading sessions since daily data started in 1927. It was also the best day since 28 October 2008. The Dow rallied +11.37%, which is best daily performance since March 1933 and the 5th best day since the data starts in 1920 (26,149 trading days).

Taking this all in, the US is at a fork in a road that might mean they escape the worst of the savage economic slump coming down the pike if Mr Trump continues with such a policy. Alternatively they might end up doing what Europe is doing, but later, and in both cases having to deal with the political and human fall out. It would be a gamble of epic proportions but the reality is that Easter is a long way away in terms of virus news so a lot can change.

Not so far away is more US stimulus with headlines out as we go to print saying that the Senate has finally reached an agreement on the near $2tn bill. We don’t have any details yet however the bill is expected to be circulated later today. The general thought though is that this will include checks to most Americans, deferrals of taxes, loans for small businesses, hospital spending and unemployment insurance measures as well as the huge $500bn fund for industries, cities and states.

S&P 500 futures are down -1.13% as we type after paring a slightly bigger decline prior to the stimulus news being released. Asian markets are stronger following the huge gains on Wall Street last night with the Nikkei (+6.93%), Hang Seng (+2.28%), Shanghai Comp (+1.57%) and Kospi (+3.96%) all making headway. The US dollar index is down -0.45% this morning which if holds will be its 3rd continuous decline. As for commodities, Brent crude oil prices are up +2.39% this morning while most base metals are also trading up with iron ore advancing by +3.40%.

Coming back the virus, yesterday afternoon the FT reported that researchers out of the University of Oxford believe that the virus may have already infected as much as half of the UK population or at least more than previously estimated. This would indicate that less than 0.1% of all cases would require hospitalization. The leading epidemiologist on the study cited the need for widespread antibody testing of the British people to have a fuller picture of the epidemic. This has a significantly more sanguine view to the now famous Imperial College report from a couple of weeks back. It brings back the concept of herd immunity into the debate but the reality is that it doesn’t change the near-term stresses on healthcare systems. The antibody test is an interesting one though and something the U.K. government discussed last week. If we can prove that large parts of the population have already had it or have immunity then economies can get back to work quicker. For now we have to treat this study with a high degree of caution but at least it puts a bit of two way into the epidemiology debate.

In terms of the latest numbers, Spain saw its worst day of the pandemic so far, recording 514 deaths on Tuesday, with the total number of cases now at 39,673 according to the health ministry. After being on an overall downward trajectory in recent days, Italy saw a 2pp increase in reported deaths with 743 new deaths from the coronavirus yesterday and confirmed cases in the country now totaling 69,176. Overall new % case growth remained in single digits for the second day as even more stringent protocols were put in place. In the US, case growth in raw numbers continues to increase massively, especially in NY where the 25,665 cases represent over 6% of all cases globally and over half of all cases in the US. Governor Cuomo announced that the state is now testing at a higher per capita rate than both South Korea and China. See the pdf for the latest charts.

Back to markets and Europe was also strong yesterday. The STOXX 600 was up +8.40% for the 3rd best day on record over 8670 sessions since 1987, and the best day since 24 November 2008. The DAX was up +11.04%, the 4th best day in 15,778 trading days we have data for and the best daily gain since 28 October 2008. The FTSE 100 rallied +10.62%, the 2nd best day in 9,457 observations, with only 11 November 2008 seeing a better daily gain.

There were a number of big moves in other markets as well yesterday. Credit saw a very strong day after the Fed buying package gained some traction. In CDS, US CDX IG and HY were -14bps and -154bps tighter and in Europe the equivalent was -16bps and -97bps tighter. In cash we had the first day where there was some positive traction in what feels like a very long time. US IG and HY were -19bps and -32bps tighter while in Europe HY was -27bps tighter.

Meanwhile, Gold saw its largest daily gain (+5.09%) since the day after September 11th, while silver (+7.66%) had its strongest day since November 2008. And this came in spite of the fact that safe havens in other asset classes like US Treasuries or the Japanese Yen moved lower, while the Bloomberg Dollar index ended its run of 10 successive advances to fall -0.72%.

Speaking of which, sovereign bonds sold off throughout the day yesterday, with 10yr Treasury yields up 6.0bps to 0.85% and a level they have held onto this morning in Asia. 10yr bunds were up +5.3bps at -0.32%. However, peripheral spreads in Europe were moving in different directions. While the spread of Italian 10yr yields over bunds fell by -6.8bps to a 3-week low, they continued to widen in Spain and Portugal, up by +7.0bps and +6.1bps respectively as sovereign bonds in both countries underperformed the rest of Europe.

Our economics team published a note trying to assess the damage to Q2 yesterday ahead of more thorough updates later in the week. They conclude that it is possible that the level of GDP falls by 15-30% (non-annualised) on both sides of the Atlantic under various lockdown assumptions. All of this impact may not be felt in Q2. The contraction in Q2 will be a function of how long lockdowns remain in place and how economies recover following being turned back on. Large parts of continental Europe are already on lockdown, which could already mean Q1 sees a contraction of 4-6% qoq.. (For more details see Link here).

Talking of economic impacts, the return of risk appetite in markets yesterday came even though the PMI releases signaled that the global economy was heading for a sharp contraction, with the readings collapsing right across the board. However most people would have expected this but the numbers were still generally weaker than expected. In the Euro Area, the composite PMI fell to 31.4 (vs. 38.8 expected), the lowest level since comparable data was collected going back to July 1998, and below the previous low of 36.2 set in February 2009 at the depths of the financial crisis. There was no respite in the individual country readings either, with France’s composite PMI falling to a record low of 30.2, the UK at a record low of 37.1, and Germany’s down to 37.2, which was “only” its lowest since February 2009.

In terms of the breakdown between manufacturing and services, the general pattern across countries was that services were much harder hit, with the Euro Area services PMI falling to 28.4 (vs. 39.5 expected), which was also a record low going back to 1998. Manufacturing saw far less of a decline though, falling to 44.8 (vs. 39.0 expected) which was “just” its lowest since April 2009. Some of the forward looking measures were more negative in the manufacturing numbers so expect this to go notably lower going forward.

By comparison to Europe, the PMIs from the US were fairly strong reflecting being behind in the lockdown process. The composite PMI did fall to 40.5, the lowest in the series since comparable data began in October 2009, but this was still significantly above the 31.4 reading from the Euro Area. Similarly to the Euro Area, services fell by more-than-expected to 39.1 (vs. 42.0 expected), while manufacturing held up surprisingly well at 49.2 (vs. 43.5 expected), albeit still its worst reading since August 2009.

Other data was similarly dire. We got a glimpse of what could happen to unemployment across the globe from Norway, where data showed that the number of people seeking unemployment benefit has more than tripled over the last two weeks, with registered unemployment now at 10.4%, the highest since WWII.

To the day ahead, and data releases out include the UK’s CPI inflation reading for February as well as the CBI’s distributive trades survey for march. From Germany, there’ll be the final Ifo business climate reading for March, while from the US we’ll get the preliminary readings for durable goods orders and nondefence capital goods orders ex air for February. In addition, the US will also see the release of the MBA’s weekly mortgage applications and January’s FHFA house price index.

 

 

 

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)WEDNESDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 59.15 POINTS OR 2.17%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 863.70 POINTS OR 3.81%   /The Nikkei closed UP 1454.28 POINTS OR 1.97%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 5.32%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 7.1029 /Oil UP TO 23.49 dollars per barrel for WTI and 26.32 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.1029 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.1180 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY PAST 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED//CORONAVIRUS  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

We have come to the point where Japanese banks are refusing to part with their bonds.  It is better to rent them out, rather than the Japanese central bank buying them outright.  We are now on the verge of a central bank failure.

(zerohedge)

Japan’s QE On Verge Of Failure As Nobody Wants To Sell To The BOJ

Over a decade since central bankers started a stealthy nationalization of capital markets by purchasing a wide range of securities from Trasuries, to MBS, to corporate bonds, to ETFs and single stocks, their actions are finally catching up to them, and in the process breaking the very markets central bankers have worked so hard to prop up. And nowhere is this more obvious than in Japan, where the shrinking universe of Japanese government bonds (as a reminder the BOJ now owns more than 100% of Japanese GDP in JGBs) is “causing havoc” in Japanese money markets as the Bank of Japan continues to buy while dealers refuse to sell.

The result is that rates in Japan’s repo market, which traditionally connects holders of bonds with investors looking to borrow them, jumped to a record Tuesday (although they since retreated on Wednesday) because as Bloomberg notes, “the introduction of cheaper, more regular dollar-swap auctions has generated huge demand from U.S. currency-starved dealers who are keeping their JGBs to put them down as collateral.”

So here is what the math looks like now that the Fed has launched enhanced swap lines with central banks such as the BOJ, allowing local entities to obtain dollar funding at much lower rates: in last week’s first round of the Fed’s revamped dollar-swap auctions, banks borrowed greenbacks for about 3-months at 0.37%, a massive discount to the near 2% it would cost them in the currency swap market. $32 billion was alloted in the first operation.

This huge difference in available borrowing costs, highlighted in yellow in the chart above, means JGB holders who still haven’t offloaded to Kuroda are now unwilling to participate in the BOJ’s bond purchases.

This was readily apparent in Monday’s Rinban operation (i.e., Japan’s POMO) across 5-to10-year bonds which saw the lowest offer-to-cover ratio on record, as dealers refused to sell to the BOJ! Other tenors also saw a sharp drop in the amount of bonds offered to sell.

“Demand for JGBs as collateral and its importance now is heightening.” SMBC Nikko rates strategist Souichi Takeyama told Bloomberg. And here is the big problem that is now facing the BOJ: “There is little incentive to sell to the BOJ because there are more effective ways to make use of JGBs.”

In other words, unless the BOJ provides dealers with a substantial “pick up” in principal relative to market prices, dealers will simply hold on their bonds as they can earn far more by simply renting the bonds out than purchasing any comparable securities. However, that would be frowned upon as it would constitute a clear subsidy to the local banks which, ironically, have been crushed in recent decades by the lack of net interest margin with the entire Japanese yield curve trading flat.

Making matters worse, the surge in demand comes at a time when the Bank of Japan is stepping up its own JGB purchases, in its bid to provide liquidity to financial markets grappling with the worsening coronavirus outbreak. However, with banks now openly refusing to sell to the BOJ, either the Japanese QE will fail, or bond prices will have to rise much more, pushing yields even lower, and further impairing bank interest margin calculations. On net, as Bloomberg notes, “that means less supply available for Japanese banks who have so far tapped over $150 billion in ultra-cheap dollar funding.”

The bottom line, according to Takeyama, is that “there is risk that the BOJ offers may not get sufficient bids.”

In other words, we may have finally hit a point where the market becomes self-stabilizing, as the very mechanism that central banks used to nationalize capital markets results in so much distortion that market participants no longer have an incentive to use it. In short, QE in Japan, which was first among the developed nations to hit the zero bound (and drop below it) and the first to exponentially ramp up bond purchases, is now on the verge of failure.

END

3 C CHINA AFFAIRS

China Lifts Lockdown On Hubei Province Despite COVID-19 Resurgence

People flooded onto trains and buses in Hubei province on Wednesday after China lifted a two-month lockdown on the epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak, which began in the eastern city of Wuhan (roughly 900 feet from a laboratory where they were experimenting on bat coronavirus that’s 96% genetically identical to COVID-19).

At a railway station in the city of Macheng, there were long queues of people lugging suitcases in the rain as they queued for trains.

Children in masks were among those waiting, while guards directed the crowds and station announcements offered details of trains to destinations across the country.

Footage from Xinhua News Agency showed migrant workers in Huanggang — one of the cities worst-hit by the coronavirus outbreak — queuing for long-distance coaches. –RTHK.hk

“I have been at home in Hubei for more than two months,” said one unnamed worker returning to Wenzhou in Zhejiang province.

While trains and buses are not yet operating in Wuhan30 highways leading into the city were re-opened on Wednesday according to state media, which showed jam-packed roads.

According to state broadcaster CCTV, a state police traffic officer said that people are allowed to travel in and out of Hubei as long as they have a “green” health code issued by authorities, according to RTHK.

It’s not over, however

While CCP officials claim there have been no new local infections in Wuhan over the last few days, RTHK sources say that’s “simply not the case,” and that people are being turned away from hospitals without being tested in order to back the official data.

Jennifer Zeng 曾錚@jenniferatntd

Hospital refuses to admit patient as they want to keep “zero new case” record. Upset family starts a fight with staff, on Mar. 23, Not sure which hospital.
Click here for more : http://bit.ly/2uBfJPr 

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A member of a volunteer group said his mother, who is in hospital with a heart problem, had seen coronavirus patients being turned away by staff.

Zhang Yi said it is a political need that is making mainland authorities claim there have been no new local infections.

He said he had received messages from officials which showed there were still people coming down with the disease in Wuhan.

“Whether the official figure is accurate or not, I think you will know. This is a political treatment, not medical treatment,” he said. –RTHK

Meanwhile, one of China’s own top experts, professor Li Lanjuan- who has been handling the medical aspect of the Wuhan outbreak – says she is “very worried that imported cases could trigger another large-scale epidemic” in the country.

Her comment came after health officials reported the country’s first case of someone who is believed to have contracted the disease, known as COVID-19, from another person returning from abroad.

It also came as life in former epicentre Wuhan is slowly returning to normal following a two-month draconian lockdown. –Daily Mail

“The mission in Wuhan has not been accomplished, and there are still many critical patients,” said Li, adding “I think the current situation in our country is very tough.”

END

4. EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

Mises’ Ferrari talks about the precarious position of Italy

(zerohedge)

 

The European Central Bank Is Being Stretched To Its Breaking Point In Italy

Authored by Fabrizio Ferrari via The Mises Institute,

When Mario Draghi’s tenure was approaching its end, I argued for a sterner governor for the European Central Bank (ECB); hence, I was not even slightly enthusiastic when Draghi’s successor turned out to be Christine Lagarde – a patent dove, as can be inferred from her ideological proximity to a famous Keynesian like Olivier Blanchard.

However, I am here to defend the stance she took with her March 12 speech – in which, addressing the economic turmoil spurred by the coronavirus crisis, she declared that it was not a central banker’s job to prevent the occurrence of spreads on financial markets – which has been fiercely attacked both by Italian media and politicians, and even by Italian president Sergio Mattarella. There are three reasons why I deem, for once, Lagarde’s viewpoint to be right. These reasons are based in monetary policy theory, in the institutional framework of European Union, and in the current situation of the Italian economy.

The Limits of Monetary Policy

First, we need to understand that what Lagarde stated—that it is not her job to prevent government bonds’ prices in the European Monetary Union (EMU) from diverging—is absolutely correct from a technical perspective. Indeed, if we consider the theoretical approach to the role of the central bank as a lender of last resort as conceived by both Walter Bagehot and Henry Thornton (both recognized and respected even by mainstream neoclassical economists), we find that actually there should be no room for monetary policy to be influencing assets’ relative prices. In fact, the role of a central bank (i.e., of a lender of last resort in a fiat money and fractional reserve banking system) should be to grant liquidity to temporarily illiquid—but solvent, i.e., structurally sound—commercial banks. In no way should monetary policy be involved in steering (and messing with) asset prices—as has regrettably been occurring in the EMU since the beginning of QE in March 2015—since central banks’ interferences distort the natural market formation of prices, bringing about Cantillon effects and spurring both malinvestment and excessive risk taking (through generally lowering returns on assets and pushing savers to invest in riskier ones).

It is evident that the ECB has already been a hugely interventionist central bank; suffice it to mention that currently the ECB’s balance sheet is roughly 40 percent of the EMU’s GDP and that the European banking system is already flooded with €1.5 trillion in excessive reserves. Hence, it is also frankly hard to see how further room for monetary policy interference in a market capitalist economy could be justifiable—even conceding to hardened shortsighted Keynesians that the current coronavirus shock is a purely demand-side one, which it absolutely is not.

The Institutional Framework of the European Union

Here the argument is pretty simple and straightforward. First of all, we need to remember that EMU is a monetary union in which European national states retain fiscal sovereignty. The problem with such a framework is that Italian monetary nationalists, Keynesian and MMTer (modern monetary theory) pseudoeconomists, and national socialist politicians interpret this international deal as follows: “burdens should be shouldered together and addressed with a common tool (i.e., the currency we all share, the euro), whereas benefits should be enjoyed privately by member states.” Indeed, they do not see (or pretend not to see) that the only way—even under a Keynesian paradigm—whereby monetary policy could be helpful in such a crisis would be if the fiscal policy decision level were the same as the monetary policy one.

This is exactly why the current EMU’s institutional framework—developed in the unideal world we live in, i.e., with fiat money, fractional reserve, and Keynesian macroeconomics—already provides OMT (outright monetary transactions), that is, a safety net for those governments (such as the current Italian one) begging for a monetary policy shield to cover their debt costs. Obviously enough, however, given that the euro is the currency of all Europeans (and not only of Italians), the regulatory framework of OMT requires the applying state to sign a Memorandum of Understanding, which basically transfers its fiscal sovereignty at the European level. So, it is evident that the tool available to the Italian government in order to reduce its financing costs already exists and can be triggered whenever Italian politicians would like to do so.

The problem is that Italian politicians want to squander the dowry of every European (i.e., the euro, which would be inflated and/or whose massive unbalanced injection would cause price distortions) without agreeing to implement those fiscal and institutional reforms that by themselves would suffice to better their public finance lot and to reduce the funding cost of their debt. In other words, Italians want to be saved by the EU without being subject to any conditions. Secondly, we ought not to forget that the ECB has already helped Italian governments a lot: the Public Sector Purchasing Program, indeed, has so far (December 2019) bought roughly €370 billion in Italian bonds and €530 billion in German ones; however, German GDP is now (2019) almost twice as much as Italy’s—meaning that in terms of the proportion of government bond purchases to national GDP Italy has been hugely privileged (530/370 = 1.4) through disproportionate monetary policy support for its public debt funding cost.

The Current Situation of the Italian Economy

To put it bluntly, there is nothing monetary policy could do now for the Italian situation. Italy is a paramount example of a capital-consuming economy, where the investment level has plummeted (Figure 1) and labor productivity stagnates (Figure 2).

Figure 1

Figure 2 : GDP per hour worked (Germany, Italy, EMU), 2010 = 100.

Source: OECD (2020), GDP per hour worked (indicator). Accessed Mar. 13, 2020. DOI: 10.1787/1439e590-en.

Moreover, unfavorable demography (almost one Italian in four is older than 65) and decreasing natality (on average roughly half as many children as were born in the 1950s and ’60s are born annually) put further stress on the frail pension system—which has was very poorly devised in the 1970s and ’80s.

In other words, there exists no magic monetary or financial trick that can save Italy now: the only available path is to reduce pension expenditures (which are the second highest in proportion to GDP among Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) members, immediately after Greece’s) and employ these resources in healthcare and tax reductions. However, those are all policies that do not (or should not) at all concern a central banker, and they are exactly the policies that other European partners would request Italy to enact in order to apply for OMT.

Concluding, Lagarde might have been untoward in her timing and the form of her speech; nonetheless, the substance is ironclad and sound. Italy cannot keep whining and hoping for external help: it needs to handle its fate and must take the courageous—and socially and politically tough—path that it has avoided so far. Economies grow—as Hayekian business cycle theory teaches—only if agents are willing to forego consumption today and save and invest in order to deliver higher output (thanks to increased productivity) tomorrow. There is no shortcut.

end
ITALY
Finally in Italy we have a decline in new cases and deaths..probably the lockdown is working
(zerohedge)

Italy Over The Hump? Decline In New Cases, Deaths Suggests Lockdown Is Working

Italy has been by far the hardest hit developed nation as the novel coronavirus spreads across the world, with really only Iran ranking as a more severe outbreak, while outbreaks in Spain and France are rapidly accelerating and threaten to soon join Italy among the nations desperately in need of aid from Brussels.

But as the Europeans dawdle over their aid package, Italy is finally seeing some signs that the strict national lockdown, an unprecedented and unparalleled step among western nations, might actually be working, offering some hope to Spain and France, who followed Italy with restrictions of varying severity, which they hope will turn back the tide of newly diagnosed cases.

Italy reported 5,210 new cases of the coronavirus on Wednesday, compared with 5,249 a day earlier, as the growth rate of new infections declined after nearly three weeks of lockdown measures.

 

Fatalities from the disease over the past 24 hours totaled 683, compared with 743 on Tuesday, according to figures from Italy’s Civil Protection Agency.

Though the number of new deaths was down 9%, the mortality rate in the country remained steady at just shy of 10%, the highest among  countries with more than 1,000 confirmed cases of the virus, except Iran.

Across Italy, the number of confirmed cases in the country now stands at 74,386, according to Bloomberg.

The news came as the government worked to broaden rules that shield companies from hostile takeovers as the virus takes a heavy toll on the economy.

Italy has been under an incrementally tightening lockdown since early March, and the government on Wednesday extended measures limiting mobility to April 3.

As Italian authorities have increased penalties for individuals, video show Italian tourist attractions remain virtually deserted as travel bans and the lockdown continue.

Just Travel 🗺@JustTraveI

A quiet Piazza Del Duomo as lockdown in Italy continues!

📍Milan, Italy 🇮🇹

Sennarelax | IG

Embedded video

However, as some scientists pointed out in an editorial published in the Wall Street Journal, the actual mortality rate in Italy might be much smaller than reported if, as some scientists contend, the number of infected is actually much higher than scientists understand, something that’s unlikely to change even as testing capacity improves.

Next, the northeastern Italian town of Vò, near the provincial capital of Padua. On March 6, all 3,300 people of Vò were tested, and 90 were positive, a prevalence of 2.7%. Applying that prevalence to the whole province (population 955,000), which had 198 reported cases, suggests there were actually 26,000 infections at that time. That’s more than 130-fold the number of actual reported cases. Since Italy’s case fatality rate of 8% is estimated using the confirmed cases, the real fatality rate could in fact be closer to 0.06%.

It’s just one more thing to think about.

end

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

Pompeo issues 5 facts that claim that Iran exported the COVID 19 virus to at least 5 countries

(zerohedge)

Pompeo Issues ‘5 Facts’ Claiming Iran Exported COVID-19 To “At Least 5 Countries”

As even Britain is urging its close US ally to moderate its stance on Iran sanctions as the Mideast country’s death toll surges from the coronvirus pandemic, the Washington-Tehran tit-for-tat exchanges and blame game over Covid-19 continues unabated.

Yesterday Pompeo issued a new list of five allegations of how Iran’s leaders have handled the outbreak. Notably this featured the fresh charge that Iran is responsible for recklessly spreading the deadly virus to five countries.

“In February, Iran’s chief terror airline, Mahan Air, ran at least 55 flights between Tehran and China, further infecting the Iranian people,” said Pompeo. At least five foreign countries’ first cases of coronavirus were directly imported from Iran, putting millions more lives at risk.”

Pompeo’s newly released five “facts” were posted to US Embassy websites around the world, and further accuse Iran of diverting vital funds from Covid-19 protection to instead supporting global terrorist.

Europe has largely stood by the Islamic Republic as it’s lashed out at US sanctions. On Monday a new announcement of millions in EU aid to help with coronavirus was issued by the EU: “We’ve not been able to provide a lot of humanitarian help but there is some 20 million euros in the pipeline… that we expect to be delivered over the next weeks,” EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said.

It appears the White House’s latest attempt to deflect growing criticism over its ‘maximum pressure’ campaign, which is exacerbating the outbreak in hard-hit Iran, is also also centered around the charge that the regime allegedly “stole” billions of dollars meant for humanitarian assistance to the Iranian people. However, little to no proof has been offered for such claims.

* * *

Here are Pompeo’s 5 facts posted to State Department websites this week regarding what he dubs “the Wuhan virus” and Iran’s alleged role in spreading it:

Fact: In February, Iran’s chief terror airline, Mahan Air, ran at least 55 flights between Tehran and China, further infecting the Iranian people. At least five foreign countries’ first cases of coronavirus were directly imported from Iran, putting millions more lives at risk.

Fact: The Iranian regime ignored repeated warnings from its own health officials, and denied its first death from the coronavirus for at least nine days. The regime continues to lie to the Iranian people and the world about the number of cases and deaths, which are unfortunately far higher than the regime admits.

Lisa Daftari

@LisaDaftari

Khamenei’s Lies About the Wuhan Virus Put Lives at Risk – United States Department of State https://www.state.gov/khameneis-lies-about-the-wuhan-virus-put-lives-at-risk/#.XnjAmL1b0hI.twitter 

Khamenei’s Lies About the Wuhan Virus Put Lives at Risk – United States Department of State

Supreme Leader Khamenei’s fabrications regarding the Wuhan Virus are dangerous and they put Iranians and people around the world at greater risk. Facts matter. Here are a few the Iranian regime would…

state.gov

Fact: As Iranian regime officials ask for more funds, it is important to note that since 2012, Iran has spent over $16 billion on terror abroad, and used sanctions relief from the JCPOA to fill up its proxies’ coffers. Regime officials stole over a billion Euros intended for medical supplies, and continue to hoard desperately needed masks, gloves, and other medical equipment for sale on the black market.

Fact: U.S. sanctions do not target imports of food, medicine and medical equipment, or other humanitarian goods. Iranian documents show their health companies have been able to import testing kits without obstacle from U.S. sanctions since January.

Fact: The United States has offered over $100 million in medical assistance to foreign countries, including to the Iranian people, and our scientists are working tirelessly to develop a vaccine. Khamenei rejected this offer because he works tirelessly to concoct conspiracy theories and prioritizes ideology over the Iranian people.

* * *

Meanwhile, Tehran officials have vehemently denied Pompeo’s “conspiracies” after recently floating their own claims that Covid-19 actually began in US Army labs, echoing similar bombastic statements in Chinese state media.

end
What doorknobs:  The EU shrugs off USA sanctions and gives millions in coronavirus aid to Iran.  Let us hope that they do not use the money for terrorism
(zerohedge)

EU Shrugs Off US Sanctions, Gives Millions In Coronavirus Aid To Iran

The White House has not backed off it’s ‘maximum pressure’ campaign on Iran even as the Islamic Republic’s Covid-19 cases and deaths continue to soar, approaching 25,000 confirmed cases Tuesday.

Despite even close US ally Britain quietly signalling it’s had enough of Washington’s ill-timed pressures, Secretary of State Pompeo has upped the ante further, on Monday accusing the Iranian regime of everything from hoarding masks and equipment to intentionally spreading the deadly disease to at least five countries.

But it appears Europe has finally begun to shirk US demands. On Monday EU foreign policy chief Joseph Borrell announced 20 million euros in new aid to Iran, and more crucially said the body will support Tehran’s request for IMF assistance.

“We’ve not been able to provide a lot of humanitarian help but there is some 20 million euros in the pipeline … that we expect to be delivered over the next weeks,” Borrell said in a video news conference Monday.

“We also agree in supporting the request by Iran and also by Venezuela to the International Monetary Fund to have financial support,” he said further but without disclosing details.

European officials consider the situation as urgent and see the US pressure campaign as greatly exacerbating the death toll given Iran lacks much of the basic medicines and equipment to treat at-risk patients and mitigate the outbreak. Recently Iranian health officials said shockingly that one person is dying from the virus every 10 minutes.

The pressure for some kind of dramatic blanket easing of US sanctions is only set to grow, given that last week Iran’s leaders for the first time in a half-century turned to the IMF. Bloomberg reported of the urgent IMF appeal:

Iranians say that their economy is weak and unable to cope with the humanitarian toll because of the U.S. sanctions. Last week, Iran turned to the International Monetary Fund for the first time since the 1960s for aid, though Ali Vaez, the Crisis Group’s Iran project director, said the U.S. may try to block the IMF loan in order to keep up the pressure on the regime.

No doubt this will unleash fury out of Pompeo’s office, but at such a crucial juncture with the whole world’s eyes on combating the coronavirus pandemic, Washington will continue to shed allies by keeping up the so-called ‘maximum pressure’.

Iran’s leaders have said that without immediate assistance possibly “millions” will die inside the country, while further blaming Trump and Pompeo’s policies for increasing the death toll.

end

6.Global Issues

Coronavirus update/the Globe

Prince Charles Tests Positive For COVID-19, Deaths In Spain Soar, Pass China After Largest Daily Jump: Live Updates

Summary:

  • Prince Charles tests positive for coronavirus
  • Tokyo reports largest daily jump in new cases
  • Spain deaths pass mainland China total
  • Deal struck on $2 trillion US rescue bill
  • Germany, Japan scramble to pass their own rescue legislation
  • US case total passes 55k, death toll hits 792
  • Indian governor defies lockdown
  • Bank of Spain warns about economic fallout
  • Taiwan announces 19 new cases
  • 3 Navy sailors test positive
  • Britain’s NHS recruits more than 150k volunteers overnight
  • UK shuts Parliament Wednesday night
  • Mali becomes 44th African country to confirm COVID-19

*  *  *

The American press and the progressives who make up most of its journalists have so far focused on how the novel coronavirus will inevitably harm the poor and vulnerable. But so far, that’s not what we’ve seen – at least not in the West. Connecticut’s Fairfield County and New York’s Westchester County, two havens for wealthy businessmen, doctors, lawyers and other rich professionals, have been especially hard hit by the virus, both becoming hot zones in their own right.

Over in the UK, the Royal Palace announced Wednesday morning that Prince Charles, the Prince of Wales and heir to the British throne, has tested positive for the virus.

This is hardly a new trend. Since the start of the crisis, numerous government officials from Iran, to Canada, to the US and over in Europe, have caught the virus, as have famous professional athletes and others who travel. Dozens of politicians and leaders have tested positive (and that’s just in Iran).

During the early hours of Wednesday morning, Democrats finally dropped enough of their ‘Green New Deal’-type demands to strike a deal on the $2 trillion “largest bailout package in American history”. In addition to a $500 billion pool of ’emergency liquidity’ for American corporations that will be administered by the Fed and a $367 billion loan program for small businesses, the legislation will include a one-time $1,200 transfer to all Americans making less than $70,000 a year.

Mitch McConnell celebrated the news in an early-morning tweet, and promised that legislation would pass in the early morning.

 

As President Trump pushes to bring the economy back on-line by Easter, close American ally South Korea, a country lauded for its swift and widespread testing program that managed to test roughly 10,000 a day, agreed to send the US spare medical equipment in response to Trump’s request for ‘reagents’ – a critical component for COVID-19 tests that was missing or damaged in the first iteration of the CDC’s test.

The number of confirmed cases in the US had topped 55k by Wednesday morning, with 55,225 cases exactly as of 7amET, according to Johns Hopkins. The number of deaths climbed to 782.

After Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte threatened Italians who break the quarantine with possible prison time as the numbers of new cases and deaths continued to climb despite the government’s best efforts – Italy’s mortality rate, at roughly 10%, is the highest in the developed world – Spain released some unpleasant news.

Europe’s fourth-largest economy has been struggling with the second-worst outbreak on the continent after Italy. The outbreak, which accelerated following an International Women’s Day march in Madrid earlier this month, claimed 738 Spanish lives on Tuesday, according to figures released Wednesday morning by Spain’s public health officials. That’s the largest daily jump in deaths yet, bringing Spain’s death toll to 3,434, an increase of 27% over Tuesday’s figures.

Spain now has 47,610 cases in total. In mainland China, 3,281 people have died, according to the ‘official’ numbers. Top Spanish health official Fernando Simon said Wednesday that he expects the number of Covid-19 cases to continue increasing in the coming days.

Meanwhile, the Bank of Spain, the country’s central bank and a constituent of the ECB said coronavirus outbreak mitigation measures have caused severe disruptions of the economy since March, and the impact on jobs will most likely be very significant in the near-term.

Once Prince Charles was confirmed positive for COVID-19, attention turned immediately to the Queen: The Monarch “remains in good health”, according to palace officials. Charles and his wife Camilla are now isolating in Scotland.

In other UK news, HMG is planning on shuttering Parliament beginning Wednesday night in another effort to slow the spread.

In recent days, speculation about Japan’s relatively small number of confirmed COVID-19 cases ranged from Japanese culture being a mild form of ‘social distancing’ to other quirks of life in modern Japan that have potentially helped to defend its people from viral outbreaks like the novel coronavirus. But on Wednesday, officials in Tokyo confirmed 41 new cases, the biggest daily jump in Japan since the crisis began, Nikkei reports.

In other Japan-related news, officials announced that the Diamond Princess cruise ship is expected to leave Yokohama port on Wednesday after scientists confirmed that samples of the virus had apparently survived on the ship for weeks.

Taiwan’s government announces 19 new cases on Wednesday, all imported, bringing the total number of infected people on the island to 235. Thailand health officials report 107 new coronavirus cases, bringing its total to 934.

China’s re-opening continued on Wednesday, with officials in Beijing warning local party functionaries around the country not to tamper with the data anymore (enabling Chinese officials to act quickly to stop a resurgence). After announcing yesterday that the Wuhan lockdown would end on April 8, health officials said they now expect to resume domestic passenger flights to and from Wuhan starting on the same date, April 8, when travel restrictions placed on the original epicenter of the viral outbreak are to be lifted.

🤔😐

View image on Twitter

Following the US deal on the coronavirus package, parliaments in Germany and Japan continued to battle over their own fiscal stimulus packages, according to CNN.

Britain’s National Health Service announced that it is waging a “war on coronavirus” and called for a quarter of a million volunteers. Overnight, nearly 200k registered via the NHS’s website. Meanwhile, the death toll from coronavirus in the United Kingdom jumped on Tuesday by 87 to a total of 422 on Wednesday – the biggest daily increase since the crisis began.

In the latest news from the Pentagon, three Navy sailors aboard a ship in the Pacific Ocean tested positive for the new coronavirus, officials said Tuesday, becoming the first example of sailors testing positive for the virus while at sea. Per Stars & Stripes, the number of ventilators in the government reserve designated to strengthen overwhelmed hospitals in the event of a national medical crisis is critically low, according to the Center for Public Integrity. That number – 16,600 in the Strategic National Stockpile – is a small supplement to the national health system’s estimated 160,000 ventilators, which are mostly already in use.

India, the world’s second-most populous country, went into lockdown Wednesday, suspending all nonessential services and severely restricting movement to halt the spread of coronavirus cases. But not all officials equally respected the order: hours after the lockdown’s start, the chief minister of Uttar Pradesh state in north India, Yogi Adityanath, participated in a ceremony at a temple marking the start of a nine-day Hindu festival, highlighting the challenge the nation of 1.3 billion faces in implementing the drastic containment measures.

View image on TwitterView image on TwitterView image on Twitter

Photos and videos shared by Adityanath on Twitter show him performing rituals surrounded by police and local officials. Later, addressing the gathering, he asked citizens to follow the government lockdown directives, which explicitly ban religious ceremonies, among other things, for 21 days.

As doctors get a better sense of mortality across the world, they found that the mortality rate in Italy is nearly 10%, while fatalities in France were just 4.3%, while in Germany and Austria, the number dead is 0.4%. The number of cases in Germany climbed to 31,554 on Wednesday, compared with 149 deaths.

Finally, in Africa, Mali has reported its first coronavirus cases, becoming the 44th country to record a case in Africa which has seen its spread speed up in recent days. Health experts have warned that Africa is the region least prepared to deal with the pandemic because of widespread equipment shortages and generally weak healthcare infrastructure. The continent now has roughly 2,400 cases and many countries have implemented stringent social distancing restrictions.

And as President Trump continues to push a common malaria drug for treatment of COVID-19, a brief study in France found that the malaria drugs Hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine (an analogue of Hydroxychloroquine) had little additional benefit while treating infected patients, BBG reported.

end
Daniel Lacalle Phd is one smart cookie.  This is a must read for all:
(Daniel Lacalle)

The Global Economy Won’t Bounce Back Soon

Authored by Daniel Lacalle,

The Danger Of Estimating Rapid Recovery

In February, the general consensus among large investment banks and supranational entities was that there would be a one-time impact on GDP in the first quarter due to the impact of the coronavirus, followed by a stronger recovery in the form of V.

The IMF anticipated a modest correction to world GDP of 0.1%, and the biggest cut in growth estimates for 2020 was 0.4%.

Those days are over.

The latest round of world growth reviews includes a reduction in growth estimates for the first and second quarters and a very modest recovery in the third and fourth quarters. Estimates of average GDP are now down 0.7%, and JP Morgan expects the eurozone to enter a deep recession in the next two quarters (-1.8% and -3.3% in the first and second quarters), followed by a very poor recovery that would still leave the estimate for the entire year 2020 in contraction.

The investment bank also assumes that the United States will fall by 2% and 3% respectively, but with modest growth throughout the year (considerably more than consensus)…

Capital Economics estimates a year-long blow to the US economy that would cut 0.8% from previous estimates, although it continues to predict growth, but a greater impact in the euro area, with growth throughout the year 2020 to an average of -1.2%, led by a prediction of -2% for Italy. This, unfortunately, seems only the beginning of a cycle of decline that adds to the problem of an economy that was already slowing down in 2019.

The decision to close air travel and to close all non-essential business is now a reality in the world’s major economies. The United States has banned all European flights, while Italy enters a complete blockade, Spain declares a state of emergency and Franceclose all public places and nonessential businesses. These decisions are key to containing the spread of the virus and trying to prevent the collapse of health systems, and our thoughts are with all those infected. Closing travel and business has a negative domino effect on the economy. It is an important measure to prevent a rapid spread of the disease and there will be more cancellations of events and activities.

By now, at least we have a clearer picture of the severity of the pandemic, and we can discuss the economic consequences, so I think it’s important to remind readers of some important factors:

  1. We cannot assume that the above estimates are too pessimistic. If we have learned anything from the history of world growth estimates, it is that most of us tend to be more optimistic than realists even in periods of crisis. Most analysts did not see a crisis in 2008 and, most importantly, most did not see it in 2009, when it was evident. It is true that 80 percent of the estimates at the beginning of any year have to be revised, but it is not because they are too pessimistic, but rather the opposite.
  2. Calls for large tax packages to offset the pandemic may be futile. Allen-Reynolds of Capital Economics warned that “even if governments agreed to a broader fiscal and spending package, the economic impact would be much less than in the past, particularly if the fiscal stimulus was concentrated in Germany,” because the production gaps are almost non-existent. This is not a demand problem, but a supply shock, and supply shocks with bricks, mortar, and deficit spending are not addressed.
  3. A quick recovery in the third quarter is now virtually impossible. The collapse of the developed economies is already guaranteed and will probably take us more than a couple of weeks. The collapse of emerging economies is likely to start in May and affect estimates for 2020 and 2021. All the analyzes we’ve seen so far only take into account the factors of a recession in 2020, not a crisis, let alone a major impact on the economy in 2021, but the financial implications of an already over-leveraged world add a series of credit events to an economic collapse.
  4. The latest wave of downgrades is already a large-scale stimulus, rate cuts, and quantitative easing. The diminishing returns of monetary easing were already evident in 2018 and especially in 2019, with global manufacturing purchasing managers (PMI) indices contracting and growth estimates dropping significantly throughout the year. Average downward growth reviews by country averaged 20% between January and December, amid a coordinated and massive injection operation by the central bank that injected up to $ 170 billion a month into the economy (considering the Banco Popular de China (PBOC), the Bank of Japan (BOJ), the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Federal Reserve) and saw widespread cuts in rates.
  5. The economic implications of a pandemic will not be resolved with a massive increase in spending. Governments will implement large demand policies that are the wrong response to a collapse of the economy. Most companies will experience a collapse in sales and the consequent accumulation of working capital, and none of this will be resolved by deficit spending. A supply shock cannot be mitigated with demand policies, which increase debt and excess capacity in sectors already in debt and swollen and do not help sectors that are experiencing an abrupt collapse in activity.
  6. A forced temporary collapse must also include the collapse of the tax collection system. Governments already finance themselves at negative rates. They must eliminate (not defer) the payment of taxes to companies in the crisis period to avoid a massive increase in unemployment and a domination of bankruptcies, and facilitate working capital lines with zero rates to allow companies and self-employed workers circumvent a closure. Governments that make the mistake of maintaining the current fiscal structure or simply extend the payment period for six months will see the huge negative consequences of a closure in the next nine months.

If, as expected, the collapse spreads to more countries every week, the negative effects on the economy will be longer and exponential, and the mirage of a recovery in the third quarter will be even less likely. 

It is very likely that the closure of the main developed economies will be followed by a closure of the emerging markets, creating a shock to supply that has not been seen in decades. The adoption of massive inflationary and demand-driven measures in a shock to supply is not only a mistake, but is the recipe for stagflation and guarantees a multi-year negative impact generated by the increase in debt, the weakening of productivity, the increase in inflation in non-reproducible goods while deflation is making headlines and economic stagnation.

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

 

Your Early Morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings WEDNESDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.0822 UP .0024 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS/CORONAVIRUS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /MOSTLY GREEN EXCEPT GERMAN DAX

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 111.09 DOWN 0.032 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.1904   UP   0.01155  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/

 

USA/CAN 1.4396 DOWN .0044 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  WEDNESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE BY 24 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.0822 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 59.15 POINTS OR 2.17% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 863.70 POINTS OR 2.81%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 5,32%// EUROPEAN BOURSES MOSTLY GREEN EXCEPT GERMANY

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES MOSTLY GREEN EXCEPT GERMAN DAX 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 863.70 POINTS OR 3.81%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 59.15 POINTS OR 2.17%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP 5.32% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 1454.28  POINTS OR 8.04%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1629.40

silver:$14.26-

Early WEDNESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 0.84% !!! DOWN 1 IN POINTS from TUESDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 1.39 DOWN 1  IN BASIS POINTS from TUESDAY night.

USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 101.35 DOWN 69 CENT(S) from  TUESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers WEDNESDAY MORNING

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And now your closing WEDNESDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.03% DOWN 4 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.04%  UP 1   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.85%//DOWN 1 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:1,58 DOWN 0 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 73 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES TO –.30% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.88% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR WEDNESDAY

Closing currency crosses for WEDNESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0799  UP     .0003 or 3 basis points

USA/Japan: 111.56 UP .433 OR YEN DOWN 43  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.1700 UP .0089 POUND UP 89  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar UP 107 basis points to 1.4334

 

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The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 7.1145    ON SHORE  (DOWN)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  7.1407  (YUAN DOWN)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  6.4620 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +04%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 5 IN basis points from TUESDAY at 0.80 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 1.36 DOWN 4 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 101.77 DOWN 27  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for WEDNESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 116.31  2.14%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 40.92 POINTS OR .42%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 98.81 POINTS 2.33%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 66.50 POINTS or 0.99%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 32.54 POINTS OR 0.19%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 24/09 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 27/10 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE FALLS:    78.92  THE CROSS HIGHER BY 0.60 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE LOWER BY 60 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES  TO –.30 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  24.30//

 

 

BRENT :  27.43

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 0.85..plus one basis point…

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 1.439..plus 4 basis points..

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.0809 ( UP 93   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:111.22 UP .104 (YEN DOWN 10 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 100.88 DOWN 116 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.1905 UP 116  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 6.4234

 

 

the Russian rouble 78.15   UP 0.17 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( UP 17 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.4202 UP 240 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  7.1144  (ONSHORE)/

 

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 71258 (OFFSHORE)

 

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.30%

 

The Dow closed UP 495.64 POINTS OR 2.39%

 

NASDAQ closed DOWN 63.95 POINTS OR 2.27%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  63.95 CLOSED UP 2.28

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 1.232%//libor dropping like a stone

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

Stocks Scream Higher On Greatest Short-Squeeze In History, Bonds & Bullion Shrug

“Fear” is almost over according to the market’s “Virus Fear” trade…

Source: Bloomberg

The Dow is up by almost 18% in the last 2 days – the biggest 2-day surge since March 1933…

Source: Bloomberg

And Dow futures are up a stunning 20% from the limit-down lows on Sunday night…

But bonds ain’t buying it…

Source: Bloomberg

So, with stocks roaring higher once again, this seemed appropriate…

“Most Shorted” stocks are up a stunning 21% in the last two days – the greatest short-squeeze in history…

Source: Bloomberg

Dow futures show the insane scale of today’s moves best – a 1000 point surge into yesterday’s close, a failed 1000 point surge overnight (on the “deal”), another failed 1000 point surge into and through the cash open, and then a 1500 points surge that held into the close…

BUT – Things “went a little bit slightly turbo” into the close as Bernie Sanders spoiled the party by threatening to hold up the vote on the bill…

Knocking stocks lower and sending Nasdaq red on the day…

AAPL also did not help as reports came out that it may delay its 5G phone…

However, on the last two days, stocks are up strong…

Airlines, Cruise operators, and restaurants all soared massively today again…

Source: Bloomberg

Boeing was the most ridiculous of all stocks…

Source: Bloomberg

There’s nothing like a government handout to make everything better! What a farce!

VIX and stocks have decoupled (are people seriously buying calls to lever-up into this rebound? Or is this hedgers?). VIX was unchanged today as stocks soared…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields were mixed today – short-end bid (less than 5Y -2bps), long-end offered (30Y +2bps), belly flat but relative to stocks huge moves, bonds basically shrugged…

Source: Bloomberg

Starting at around 1400ET, someone decided to dump the long-bond hard…

Source: Bloomberg

US T-Bills have negative yields out to the end of the year…

Source: Bloomberg

Both HY and IG bonds rallied today (thogh HYG rolled over late on as LQD was bid into the close)…

Source: Bloomberg

Before we leave bond-land, it is worth pointing out that the number of bonds trading at a spread over 1,000 bps (the barometer of distress) neared 1,900 this week – the highest since 2009, data compiled by Bloomberg show. It was less than 300 at the start of March.

Source: Bloomberg

As Bloomberg noted, the spread on the entire junk bond index flipped above 1,000 bps on Friday, and strategists expect it to exceed 1,200 bps soon. In addition, there’s a whole world of grief in the $1 trillion leveraged-loan market, which is trading on average below 80 cents on the dollar, a level typically associated with distress.

But, HYG – the HY Bond ETF – has screamed higher today, back into a huge premium to underlying NAV…

Source: Bloomberg

The Dollar tumbled for the second day in a row (after 11 days straight up)…

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos broadly slipped lower today…

Source: Bloomberg

Someone was bidding oil again during the US session…

Source: Bloomberg

Spot Gold and futures remain decoupled though the spread did compress from their extremes yesterday…

Source: Bloomberg

Palladium exploded higher today (though all PMs are notably higher since The Fed went “all-in”)…

Source: Bloomberg

After surging Tuesday, Palladium futures in New York skyrocketed 26% Wednesday, the biggest gain in records dating back to 1986.

Finally, we’ve seen this all before… As Bloomberg details, historically expectations are low after a big rally. The 9.4% jump in the S&P 500 yesterday was the 10th largest in history. The benchmark S&P fell seven of the previous nine times with an average loss of 0.7%.

While the most intense sell-off may be behind us, there’s still room for the markets to fall. For one, the current drawdown is 34%. It is less than the peak-to-trough falls in the previous crises, including the 57% slump in 2008-2009, the 49% drop after the burst of the dot.com bubble and the 48% retreat during the 1973 oil crisis.

And for now, it appears the 1929 analog is holding up…

Source: Bloomberg

It’s certainly good news that the fiscal stimulus of more than $2 trillion is on the verge of getting passed in Congress. But the stimulus and various Fed actions are necessary but insufficient conditions for the market to bottom, and worse still, the dollar funding crisis is rapidly re-accelerating as month-end looms… having erased all of the ‘improvement’ offered by The Fed…

Source: Bloomberg

And don’t forget – tomorrow is jobless claims and it’s going to be a doozy!

If all of that doesn’t scare you – this should – the sovereign credit risk of the USA is surging higher since helicopter money began to creep into reality…

Source: Bloomberg

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

Stocks Roar, Dow Up 1,000 After More Clarity Emerges On Buyback Ban

Earlier today we reported that one of the reasons why futures slumped after rising as high as 2,500 in the overnight session following the announcement that a fiscal stimulus deal had been reached between the White House and Congress, is that according to CHuck Schumer, the bill would “ban stock buybacks for the term of the government assistance plus 1 year on any company receiving a government loan from the bill.”

This spooked investors, who were afraid that the buyback backlash would affect more companies than just those on “government assistance.”

However, just a few hours later, the exact same news was seen as positive, because stocks blasted off to session highs, and the Dow was up more than 1,000 points, when CNBC’s Kayla Taushe reported basically what we said 5 hours earlier, namely that “Per text circulated among lawmakers before a call with Sec. Mnuchin, a company that takes a government loan cannot buy back its stock until 1yr after the loan is paid…”

Kayla Tausche

@kaylatausche

Per text circulated among lawmakers before a call with Sec. Mnuchin, a company that takes a government loan cannot buy back its stock until 1yr after the loan is paid back –>

View image on Twitter

And that “While the loan is outstanding? No dividends.”

Kayla Tausche

@kaylatausche

AND: While the loan is outstanding? No dividends. pic.twitter.com/Ru9b1YjxQV

While there was no actual news in that report vs what we – and others – had reported earlier, it appears that sentiment had flexed so much that what was earlier seen as bad news, was now viewed as good as there was no incremental “punishment” aimed at companies repurchasing their stock. And since most companies would be allowed to continue splurging on buybacks, and with trillions injected in the economy everyone would benefit from the Fed’s liquidity not just those companies directly receiving a government loan, this meant that once the crisis is over, the record number of buyback observed in the past two years will explode higher as virtually every company will do everything in their power to recover the pre-crisis price levels only this time it will have the explicit backstop of the Fed.

The result: this.

ii)Market data/USA

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

White House and Senate agree on the largest rescue pkg in American History.  Let us see what the House Democrats do

(zerohedge)

White House, Senate Agree On “Largest Rescue Package In American History” 

We have a deal, folks! 

It appears on early Wednesday morning, the White House and Republican and Democratic Senate leaders reached a deal to keep the American economy humming during the virus crisis and hopefully avoid depression in the second and third quarters.

The new Senate proposal will inject $2 trillion into the US economy, just like a shot of heroin, providing tax rebates, four months expanded unemployment benefits, and several business tax-relief provisions aimed at supporting individuals, families, and businesses, reported The Hill.

The deal includes $500 billion for a major corporate liquidity program through the Federal Reserve, $367 billion for a small business loan program, $100 billion for hospitals and $150 billion for state and local governments.”

It will also give a one-time check of $1,200 to Americans who make up to $75,000. Individuals with no or little tax liability would receive the same amount, unlike the initial GOP proposal that would have given them a minimum of $600.” – The Hill 

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) promised the emergency legislation would be passed on Wednesday.

“At last we have a deal. … the Senate has reached a bipartisan agreement,” McConnell told the Senate at 0130ET. 

Leader McConnell

@senatemajldr

At last, we have a deal.

After days of intense discussions, the Senate has reached a bipartisan agreement on a historic relief package for this pandemic.

We’re going to pass this legislation later today.

Senate Democratic Leader Charles Schumer (D-NY) said the legislation is “the largest rescue package in American history.”

“This bill is far from perfect, but we believe the legislation has been improved significantly to warrant its quick consideration and passage,” he said.

Chuck Schumer

@SenSchumer

We have a bipartisan agreement to address this public health and economic crisis

It is not a moment of celebration but one of necessity

We fought to send much-needed resources to fight coronavirus and to put people and workers first

The agreement now reflects those priorities

Embedded video

The Hill notes that the final talks for the bipartisan agreement came after a meeting with McConnell, Schumer, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, White House legislative affairs director Eric Ueland and incoming White House chief of staff Mark Meadows.

News of a deal lifted US equity futures in the early morning – on top of the already unprecedented gains recorded on Tuesday.

Questions have been swirling around, of how the Democrats created a 1,100-page emergency bill in just days.

The Western Journal notes, “What they [Pelosi and crew] did was take a bunch of Democratic plans that have been percolating for a while and throw them into a bill one Republican senator described as a “Disney World wish list.””

Here is what some on Twitter had to say about the Democrats’ 1,100-page emergency bill:

Rachel Bovard@rachelbovard

Pelosi’s bill is 1,119 pages and contains provisions for “conducting risk-limiting audits of results of elections” so yeah it’s really very focused on the crisis at hand.🤦🏻‍♀️

Brian Cates //Flynn & Breitbart’s Army!@drawandstrike

Guess what?

PELOSI’S BILL IS OVER 1,000 PAGES LONG.

And it’s one long Leftist Progressive wishlist.

There is NO WAY they threw this together over a weekend.

Pelosi & Schumer must have PLANNED this bait and switch for over a week.https://twitter.com/rachelbovard/status/1242116258834845710?s=20 

Rachel Bovard@rachelbovard

Pelosi’s #COVID19 bill is 1,119 pages and contains provisions for “conducting risk-limiting audits of results of elections” so yeah it’s really very focused on the crisis at hand.🤦🏻‍♀️

View image on Twitter
end

Details Of $2 Trillion Coronavirus Stimulus Package Emerge

While it will take some time to sort through all the pork contained in the massive $2 trillion coronavirus legislation negotiated between the Trump administration and Congressional leaders early Wednesday, here are some of the major provisions via Bloomberg.

The bill – which still needs to be passed by the Senate and the House – provides direct help to citizens, businesses, hospitals and state and local governments. According to the report, a vote could come in the Senate as soon as today.

According to Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY), checks would be cut April 6.

Key provisions via Bloomberg:

  • Big Businesses: About $500 billion can be used to back loans and assistance to companies, including $50 billion for loans to U.S. airlines, as well as state and local governments.
  • Small Businesses: More than $350 billion to aid small businesses, including $10 billion in SBA grants of up to $10,000 for small business costs, and $17 billion for SBA to cover six months of payments for businesses with current SBA loans.
  • Hospitals: A $150 billion boost for hospitals and other health-care providers for equipment and supplies.
  • Individuals: Direct payments to lower- and middle-income Americans of $1,200 for each adult, as well as $500 for each child.

Unemployment insurance would be extended to four months, and increased to $600 per week. More workers will be eligible for coverage.

There will also be $30 billion in emergency education funding, $25 billion in transit funding, and $30 billion for the Disaster Relief fund.

Restrictions include:

  • Any company receiving a government loan would be subject to a ban on stock buybacks through the term of the loan, plus an additional year.
  • Executive bonuses will be limited.
  • Steps to safeguard workers must be taken, and a tax credit will encourage employers to keep workers on the payroll.
  • A ban on funds for any company controlled by President Trump or his children, as well as any owned by Vice President Mike Pence, any members of Congress, or heads of executive departments. It will extend to companies controlled by their children, spouses, or in-laws according to Bloomberg.

We will provide more details from the bill as they become available.

Looking ahead to the next round:

Jake Sherman

@JakeSherman

SOME NEW REPORTING ON PHASE 4:

SNAP. Postal service. States. Airlines. UI. More checks. Payroll tax cut?

Jake Sherman

@JakeSherman

SOME NEW REPORTING ON PHASE 4:

SNAP. Postal service. States. Airlines. UI. More checks. Payroll tax cut?

View image on Twitter
end
Cuomo,  the Governor of NY is angry as New York is only getting a “drop in the bucket” to what is needed
(zerohedge)

Cuomo: Stimulus Deal “Terrible” – Would Leave NY With “Drop In The Bucket”

New York Governor Andrew Cuomo (D) criticized the impending COVID-19 stimulus deal as “terrible,” and would allocate a “drop in the bucket” to the worst-hit state in the nation, according to The Hill.

“The Senate is considering a $2 trillion bill, which is quote-unquote ‘relief’ for business, individuals and governments,” said Cuomo during his daily briefing, adding. “It would really be terrible for the state of New York.”

“What does it mean for New York state?” the governor asked. “It means $3.8 billion. $3.8 billion sounds like a lot of money, but we’re looking at a revenue shortfall of [as much as] $15 billion. This response to this virus has probably already cost us $1 billion, and it will probably cost us several billion dollars when we’re done.”

New York City, specifically, Cuomo said, will only receive $1.3 billion in the stimulus deal, which he called “a drop in the bucket, as to need.”

“I spoke to our House congressional delegation this morning, I said to them ‘this doesn’t do it.’ I understand the Senate theory and the Republican theory but we need the House to make adjustments,” Cuomo said, noting that the House’s bill, in contrast, gave the state $17 billion. –The Hill

“We’re not a big-spending state. I cut taxes every year,” Cuomo continued. “I have the lowest growth rate of the state budget in modern political history. We are frugal and we are efficient. I’m telling you these numbers don’t work and I told the House members that we really need their help.

New York has 30,811 registered cases and 285 deaths from COVID-19 as of this writing.

END

A  must read..
from Daniel Lacalle..  The true USA dollar short is 13 trillion dollars, soon to rise to $20 trillion. Thus the demand for dollars will be great and the USA can whether the storm of increasing its funding without the dollar falling much
(Daniel Lacalle)

Despite QEternity & “Record” Bailout-Bill, The US Dollar Shortage Is Intensifying…

Dear Jay Powell, you have a problem…

Despite unprecedented actions by The Fed:

The FOMC expanded its large scale asset purchase program by promising to purchase ‘in the amounts needed.’ Previously, the FOMC had said it would purchase at least $500bn of Treasury securities and at least $200bn of agency MBS. The FOMC also announced that the agency MBS purchases will include agency commercial MBS.

The Fed also made CPFF more generous in terms of pricing and opened CPFF and MMLF to a wider set of assets.

The Board of Governors relaunched the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF), providing loans in exchange for ABS.

Two novel facilities are the Primary Market Corporate Credit Facility (PMCCF) and the Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facility (SMCCF). We are likely to see an increased contribution by the Treasury Department to these facilities once the big fiscal stimulus has been signed.

The dollar funding crisis is rapidly re-accelerating as month-end looms… having erased all of the ‘improvement’ offered by The Fed…

Source: Bloomberg

So, the question is simple – How can the Fed launch an “unlimited” monetary stimulus with congress approving a $2 trillion package and the dollar index remain strong?

The answer, as Daniel Lacalle details below, lies in the rising global dollar shortage, and should be a lesson for monetary alchemists around the world.

The $2 trillion stimulus package agreed by Congress is around 10% of GDP and, if we include the Fed borrowing facilities for working capital, it means $6 trillion in liquidity for consumers and firms over the next nine months.

The stimulus package approved by Congress is made up of the next key items: Permanent fiscal transfers to households and firms of almost $5 trillion. Individuals will receive a $1,200 cash payment ($300 billion in total). The loans for small businesses, which become grants if jobs are maintained ($367 billion). Increase in unemployment insurance payments which now cover 100% of lost wages for four months ($200 billion). $100 billion for the healthcare system, as well as $150bn for state and local governments. The remainder of the package comes from temporary liquidity support to households and firms, including tax delays and waivers. Finally, the use of the Treasury’s Exchange Stabilization Fund for $500bn of loans for non-financial firms.

To this, we must add the massive quantitative easing program announced by the Fed.

First, we must understand that the word “unlimited” is only a communication tool. It is not unlimited. It is limited by the confidence and demand of US dollars.

I have had the pleasure of working with several members of the Federal Reserve, and the truth is that it is not unlimited. But they know that communication matters.

FED BALANCE SHEET 25TH MARCH 2020

The Federal Reserve has identified the Achilles heel of the world economy: the enormous global shortage of dollars. The global dollar shortage is estimated to be $ 13 trillion now, if we deduct dollar-based liabilities from money supply including reserves.

How did we reach such a dollar shortage? In the past 20 years, dollar-denominated debt in emerging and developed economies, led by China, has exploded. The reason is simple, domestic and international investors do not accept local currency risk in large quantities knowing that, in an event like what we are currently experiencing, many countries will decide to make huge devaluations and destroy their bondholders.

According to the Bank of International Settlements, the outstanding amount of dollar-denominated bonds issued by emerging and European countries in addition to China has doubled from $30 to $60 trillion between 2008 and 2019. Those countries now face more than $2 trillion of dollar-denominated maturities in the next two years and, in addition, the fall in exports, GDP and the price of commodities has generated a massive hole in dollar revenues for most economies.

If we take the US dollar reserves of the most indebted countries and deduct the outstanding liabilities with the estimated foreign exchange revenues in this crisis … The global dollar shortage may rise from 13 trillions of dollars in March 2020 to $ 20 trillion in December … And that is if we do not estimate a lasting global recession.

China maintains $3 trillion of reserves and is one of the best-prepared countries, but still, those total reserves cover around 60% of existing commitments. If export revenues collapse, dollar scarcity increases. In 2019, Chinese issuers increased their dollar-denominated debt by $ 200 billion as exports slowed.

Gold reserves are not enough. If we look at the main economies’ gold reserves, they account for less than 2% of money supply. Russia has the largest gold reserves vs money supply. China’s gold reserves: 0.007% of its money supply (M2), Russia’s gold reserves: c9% of its money supply. As such, there is no “gold-backed” currency in the world, and the best protected -in gold- the Ruble, suffers the same volatility in commodity slump and recession times as others due to the same issue of US dollar scarcity, although not even close to the volatility of those LatAm countries that face both falling US dollar reserves and a collapse in demand from their own citizens of their domestic currency (as Argentina)..

The Federal Reserve knows that it has the largest bazooka at its disposal because the rest of the world needs at least $ 20 trillion by the end of the year, so it can increase the balance sheet and support a large deficit increase of $10 trillion and the US dollar shortage would remain.

The US dollar does not weaken excessively because the rest of the countries are facing a huge loss of reserves while at the same time increasing their monetary base in local currency much faster than the Federal Reserve, but without being a global reserve currency.

Second, the accumulation of gold reserves of the central banks of the past years has been more than offset in a few months by the increase in the monetary base of the world-leading countries. In other words, the gold reserves of many countries have increased but at a much slower rate than their monetary base.

The Federal Reserve knows something else: In the current circumstances and with a global crisis on the horizon, global demand for bonds from emerging countries in local currency will likely collapse, far below their financing needs. Dependence on the US dollar increases. Why? When hundreds of countries try to copy the Federal Reserve printing and cutting rates without having the legal, investment and financial security of the United States, they fall into the trap that I comment in my book Escape from the Central Bank Trap (BEP): ignoring the true demand for their domestic currency.

A country cannot expect to have a global reserve currency and maintain capital controls and investment security gaps at the same time.

The ECB will likely understand this shortly when the huge trade surplus that supports the euro collapses in the face of a crisis. Japan learned that lesson by turning the yen into a currency backed by huge dollar savings and increased its legal and investment security to the standards of the US or UK, despite its own monetary madness.

The race to zero of central banks in their monetary madness is not to see who wins, but who loses first. And those that fail are always the ones who play at being the Fed and the US without their economic freedom, legal certainty, and investor security.

The Federal Reserve can be criticized, and rightly so, for its monetary madness, but at least it is the only central bank that truly analyzes the global demand for US dollars and knows that its money supply must increase a lot less than its total currency demand. In reality, the Fed QE is not unlimited, it is limited by the real demand for US currency, something that other central banks ignore or prefer to forget. Can the US dollar lose its global reserve position? Sure it can, but never to a country that decides to commit the same monetary follies as the Fed without their analysis of real demand for the currency they manage.

This should be a lesson for all countries. If you fall into the trap of playing reserve currency and endless printing without understanding demand, your US dollar dependence will intensify.

end
ANOTHER MUST READ…SIMON BLACK

“It’s Safe!” – FDIC Urges Americans To Keep Their Money In The Banks

Authored by Simon Black via SovereignMan.com,

Yesterday the Chair of the FDIC released an astonishing video asking Americans to keep their money in the bank.

Accompanied by soft piano music playing in the background, the official said:

“Your money is safe at the banks. The last thing you should be doing is pulling your money out of the banks thinking it’s going to be safer somewhere else.”

Amazing. I was half expecting her to waive her hand and say, “These aren’t the droids you’re looking for…”

As I’ve written before, there’s $250 TRILLION worth of debt in the world right now: student debt, housing debt, credit card debt, government debt, corporate debt, etc.

And let’s be honest, some of that debt is simply not going to be paid.

Millions of people have already lost their jobs. Millions more (like the 10 million waiters and bartenders across America) are barely earning anything right now because their businesses are closed.

 

A lot of those folks have no emergency savings to fall back on during times of crisis, so they’re going to be forced to choose: pay the rent, or buy food.

The government has already suspended evictions and foreclosures, which is a green light for people to stop paying the rent or mortgage.

And that means banks will take it in the teeth.

This is what happened back in 2008– millions of people across the country stopped paying their mortgages, and the banking system nearly collapsed as a result.

Today it’s a similar situation; a lot of people are going to stop paying their mortgages, credit cards, auto loans, etc. And that directly impacts the banks.

Businesses are in deep financial trouble too.

According to the Wall Street Journal, the median small business in the United States has a cash balance that will last them just 27 days.

And many are operating with an even smaller safety net; the median restaurant, for example, has a cash balance of just 16 days.

These businesses have been told to close down due to the Corona Virus. And it’s likely that many of them will never re-open.

A lot of these companies also have debt. And if they close, those debts will never be repaid.

Even big businesses are susceptible to failure.

Every airline, cruise ship operator, hotel, retail chain, etc. is on the ropes, and each of these companies has borrowed billions of dollars.

This pandemic could easily push several big companies into bankruptcy.

You probably know that old saying– if you owe the bank a million dollars and can’t pay, you have a problem. If you owe the bank a billion dollars and can’t pay, the bank has a problem.

That’s what we’re seeing now.

Countless unemployed individuals, millions of shuttered small businesses, and bankrupt big companies collectively owe the banks trillions of dollars. And many of them can’t pay… which means the entire banking system has a problem.

How much money will the banks lose because of this pandemic?

It could easily end up being hundreds of billions of dollars, even several trillion dollars.

No one knows. But it’s not going to be zero. It’s silly to think that banks are immune to the Corona virus, or to assume that not a single bank is going to run into problems.

Don’t get me wrong– I’m not saying that the banking system is about to collapse. There are stronger banks and weaker banks. Many of them will survive, others will fail.

What I am saying is that there are enormous and obvious risks that threaten the banking system.

As I’ve written several times over the past few weeks: Anyone who says, “No, that’s impossible,” clearly doesn’t have a grasp of what’s happening right now. EVERY scenario is on the table, including severe problems in the banking system.

But the FDIC insists that there’s nothing to worry about.

That’s ridiculous. The FDIC only has $109 billion to insure the entire $13 trillion US banking system. That’s less than 1%!

The FDIC also insists that they’ve always been able to prevent depositors from losing money. “Not a single depositor has lost money since 1933.” And that’s true.

But they’ve never had to deal with this before. Neither the FDIC, nor any bank, has ever had to deal with a complete shutdown of the economy… or potential losses of this magnitude.

The Covid-19 impact on the banking system could be 10x bigger than the housing meltdown in 2008.

If the pandemic ends up causing trillions of dollars of loan losses, the FDIC won’t have enough ammunition to fix it… and that doesn’t even consider trillions of dollars more in potentially toxic derivatives exposure.

So to casually brush off these risks and claim that everything is 100% safe seems incomprehensible.

It also raises an interesting point: why is the FDIC asking us to NOT withdraw our savings?

If the financial system is so safe, it shouldn’t matter to them whether or not people keep their money in the banks.

Yet they still felt the need to specifically ask people to NOT withdraw their money… and tell us that we shouldn’t keep cash at home.

I’ll reiterate a point that we’ve made again and again at Sovereign Man over the years: it makes sense to have some physical cash in an at-home safe.

I’m not suggesting you keep your life’s savings in physical cash. But a month or two worth of expenses won’t hurt.

There’s very little downside– your bank probably only pays you 0.01% anyhow, so it’s not like you will be giving up a ton of interest income.

And given that the FDIC is specifically saying that you shouldn’t do this, a prudent person might wonder what’s really going on.

And to continue learning how to ensure you thrive no matter what happens next in the world, I encourage you to download our free Perfect

END 

THIS IS HUGE: DISTRESSED DEBT LAST WEEK DOUBLED TO A REMARKABLE 500 BILLION DOLLARS.  TODAY YOU CAN DOUBLE THAT AGAIN: IT IS NOW $1 TRILLION DOLLARS OF DISTRESSED DEBT

(zerohedge)

Bond Market Tears In Two: Distressed Debt Is Cratering, As Fed Buying Of Investment Grade Sends LQD NAV Soaring

Just last Friday we reported that the number of distressed debt in the US – roughly defined as bonds with a spread of over 10% – had soared, doubling in just two weeks to a remarkable $500 billion. Well, double it again.

According to Bloomberg’s James Crombie, there is now about $1 trillion of debt trading at distressed levels after this month’s credit rout, “and it’s rising fast” because as the impact of a severe economic slump, which as noted earlier includes nearly 50,000 shuttered retail locations, and surging funding becomes clear, “credit spreads are set to spiral higher.”

Specifically, the number of distressed bonds neared 1,900 this week, just shy of the record 2000 hit during the financial crisis, Bloomberg data shows.

Putting this surge in context, just three weeks ago, at the start of March there were less than 300 distressed issues. The rout is to be expected as the spread on the entire junk bond index flipped above 1,000 bps on Friday, and strategists from JPM and other banks expect it to surpass 1,200 bps soon, leading to a surge in defaults.

In a report published last Friday by Bank of America, its credit analyst Oleg Melentyev said “we think this credit cycle has turned and expecting default rates to rise meaningfully in coming months.”

Only a week ago, we summarized all key leading indicators of credit stress in a table below, where we compared the current level on each one of them, to the point in time closest to it going into the two previous credit cycles. Marking Apr 2001 and Sept 2008 as the points of no return corresponding to 1,000bps levels on the HY index, we argued that the whole collection of indicators was about 3-4 months away from such threshold, where a turn in the credit cycle becomes inevitable and irreversible.

BofA’s conclusion: “As things continued to move at lightning speed over the past several days, those same indicators are now averaging only 1.5-2 months of cushion before they reach such a pointBased on those timelines, today’s market environment is equivalent to Feb 2001 and Jul 2008.

But wait, it gets worse. As Bloomberg also notes, “there’s a whole world of grief in the $1 trillion leveraged-loan market, which is trading on average below 80 cents on the dollar, a level typically associated with distress.” Indicatively, while far worse than the loan selloffs in late 2015 and the Q4 2018 mini bear market, leveraged loans have another 15 points to drop before they catch down to financial crisis levels.

Naturally, most of the pain’s been in energy, which is at a 2,217 bps spread amid fears the plunge in oil prices will lead to a collapse in cash flow and rising insolvencies, but the non-energy part of junk is already at 948 bps – boosted by travel, leisure and retail names – “and no corner of high yield is immune.”

As Bloomberg concludes, there’s more trouble ahead “as the smaller and more levered junk issuers throw in the towel amid extended economic misery. As the U.S. high-yield default rate leaps above 10% this year, from 3% last month, expect the distressed universe to expand accordingly.”

Yet as the distressed bond market continues its relentless selloff, a different picture has emerged in the investment grade market, where as we pointed out yesterday, the discount on the IG ETF, the LQD, has now flipped and reversed from a 5% discount observed last week to a record premium of 3%.

The reason: with the Fed – via Blackrock – now buying the LQD ETF as part of its corporate debt bazooka, but not buying the single-name securities that comprise the ETF, investors are frontrunning the Fed’s purchases to the point where the ETF no longer reflects the fundamental values of its constituent bonds, but instead merely reflect the fact that everyone expects the Fed to buy the ETF any time there is a market event. As a result, expect this premium to be a permanent fixture of the ETF as it is pulled into two directions – on one hand lower to reflect the fundamental value of its bonds, and on the other hand higher to reflect the Fed’s infinite liquidity which can and will be used to backstop the IG bond market no questions asked.

end

Shear Brilliance!! from DeBlasio

(zerohedge)

Mayor de Blasio Fighting Coronacrisis By Letting Hundreds Of Criminals Out Of Prison

In the latest example of “outside the box thinking” from America’s favorite mayor, Bill de Blasio – whose city is being ravaged by the coronavirus and is slowly becoming the epicenter for the outbreak in the U.S. – decided to release inmates from jail.

Approximately 300 inmates were released from Rikers Island and other city facilities this week in an attempt to, drumroll, stop the virus spread, because apparently confining potential covid carriers in a closed space is more risky than letting them frolic among the general population. Perhaps de Blasio missed the part where prisoners are already in quarantine, even if one gets the virus.

The socialist mayor and failed presidential candidate commented on the non-violent offenders serving yearlong sentences or less that he was releasing: “Some have many months, some have only a few months, some have only weeks, but I’m going to treat this category across the board. We will move to release those 300 inmates immediately.”

We wonder if New York resident, forced to live under quaratine indefinitely, will appreciate the latest stroke of brilliance from the NYC mayor who has worked for his entire tenure to de-criminalize… well, crime.

 

But why stop at 300? The New York Post reports“The mayor said he is also working with the District Attorneys and New York state to release another 800 inmates. About 700 of those people were jailed on technical parole violations.”

The mayor continued: “I am saying across the entire population it is imperative to me that anyone over 70 and anyone who has one of those five pre-existing conditions, should be released as well.”

That said, don’t accuse de Blasio of not having a backbone: de Blasio is apparently not yet “comfortable” releasing those locked up for domestic violence and sexual offenses. But in a day or two, well, who knows…

Something tells us this idea is going to poll about as well as de Blasio did during the Democratic primaries. On the other hand, maybe once these inmates are released, de Blasio can hire several hundreds city officials to form a taskforce that ensures the criminals use hand sanitizer when they jump subway turnstiles.

ian bremmer

@ianbremmer

Coronavirus leading to extreme sanitation measures on the subway.

Embedded video

end
This is a huge problem:  the 2 Trillion dollar Trump stimulus will only help demand but does nothing for the supply side of the equation.
The Trump money is only good for about 4 months worth of demand.  If these stores stay closed for 8 months then we will have a monstrous problem
(zerohedge)

47,000 Stores Shutter Across The US As Virtually All Retailers Stop Paying Rent

Even before the coronavirus pandemic ground the US economy to a halt, the US brick and mortar retail sector was facing an apocalypse of epic proportions with dozens of retailers filing for bankruptcy in recent years as Amazon stole everyone’s market share…

First Day by Reorg@ReorgFirstDay

Since June 2015, retail chains have accumulated more than $45 billion in aggregate chapter 11 liabilities in connection with over 80 bankruptcy filings:

View image on Twitter

… resulting in tens of thousands of stores across the nation shuttering.

So what has taken place in the retail sector in just the past few weeks is straight out of the the 9th circle of hell.

With cash flows dwindling, and their survival in question every day, the total collapse in revenue has meant that firms such as (recently reorganized) Mattress Firm and Subway are among some of the major U.S. retail and restaurant chains telling landlords they will withhold or slash rent in the coming months after closing stores to slow the coronavirus, Bloomberg reports citing sources.

Aware that one way (out of bankruptcy) or another (in bankruptcy), they will end up renegotiating their leases, retail chains are proactively calling for rent reductions through lease amendments and other measures starting in April.

Mattress Firm, with about 2,400 stores, sent landlords a letter last week saying it would cut rent in exchange for longer leases and offering two options to do so. This week, it sent a more urgent note revoking its earlier offer.

“The decline in revenue and forced store closures across the nation are more drastic, compressed and immediate than we originally anticipated,” the company wrote in a letter reviewed by Bloomberg. “Our need is now more severe,” the firm said, invoking the virus as a force majeure event that “will prevent or prohibit us” from paying rent.

After being contacted by Bloomberg, Mattress Firm confirmed that it has requested a temporary suspension of rent.

“We appreciate our landlord partners, and the responses have been encouraging so far,” Randy Carlin, chief real estate officer for Mattress Firm, said in a statement. “We will continue to do everything we can to maintain business continuity and to ensure there are jobs available for our people to return to when this crisis ends.”

Subway Restaurants, which has more than 20,000 U.S. locations, sent out a letter to landlords last week saying that it might cut or postpone rental payments due to the virus, according a person with knowledge of the situation. The Real Deal, a real estate trade publication, reported on the communication earlier.

Virtually every other US retailer has also told their landlords the same, and if not, they will soon.

These moves, as Bloomberg notes, mark the next phase in virus fallout: what happens to billions in rent owed for businesses that have been closed? The stakes are high. Retail has a slew of big chains in turnaround mode. And if they do withhold payments, there would be a ripple effect. Landlords can’t afford to stop collecting rent for long, with many property owners sitting on loads of debt.

Worse, if landlords refuse to budge, it’s unclear how this mutually assured destruction will conclude in anyone’s favor. The fiscal stimulus packages being considered don’t directly address rents. But the Federal Reserve’s actions may give banks the leeway to defer mortgage payments, allowing property owners to delay rent. Some retailers may also declare a “force majeure,” a contract clause that covers highly unusual events, although whether or not landlords or banks accept this is a different question.

“The court system is just going to get flooded with a million of these disputes between tenants and landlords,” said Vince Tibone, an analyst at Green Street Advisors. If the government doesn’t step in in any form or fashion, it could get ugly. They need to respond quickly.”

In short: this will be the biggest in court mess ever, and whether it involves in court bankruptcy or not, will not matter one bit, as there is simply no money.

The good news is that some landlords have recognized they need to help smaller tenants. For example, California’s Irvine Company Retail Properties, is allowing rent to be deferred for 90 days and then paid back with no interest over a year starting in January. The firm confirmed the practice without further comment. Bedrock, a Detroit developer, said it will waive rent and other fees for three months for its smaller retail and restaurant tenants.

However, for many other landlords, who themselves are highly levered, forbearing on rent is simply not an option as the lack of even a few months of liquidity could mean the different between life and death. Indeed, it may also be the tipping point for America’s malls, many of which should have shuttered long ago yet subsisted as zombie creatures kept alive by cheap money. Well, no more, and the result is a massive victory for all those who had the “Big Short 2.0” trade on their books: also known as the great mall armageddon trade via CMBX Series 6, and which we discussed yesterday, has made its long-suffering fans very right.

But even if retailers succeed in getting a rent reprieve for a month or two, in the grand scheme of things it will hardly make much of a difference. The reason: in just the past 10 days, more than 47,000 chain stores across the US shut their doors temporarily, or so they hope – as retailers took extreme measures to help slow the spread of the coronavirus pandemic according to Bloomberg data. At least 90 nationwide retailers, ranging from Macy’s to GameStop to Michael Kors have temporarily gone dark.

While most have pledged to remain closed for at least two weeks, many if not all will likely have to stay closed for much longer, because as we showed earlier, the US is very early on the coronavirus curve, and many weeks have to pass before the peak is hit.

 

It has been an unprecedented moment for shopping in America, a country that contains more retail selling space than any other.

“In the space of a week, the retail landscape has changed from being fairly normalized to being absolutely disrupted beyond what we’ve ever seen before outside of the Second World War,” Neil Saunders, managing director of GlobalData Retail, said.

After Apple, Nike and Urban Outfitters were among the first to announce store closures on Saturday, March 14, the store shuttering pace quickened over the remainder of the week. Then shopping centers closed by the hundreds, with developers like Simon Property Group and Westfield, owned by Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield, locking up their entire U.S. mall networks. By Monday, March 23, at least 47,000 chain stores were shut. Most told customers that goods would be available online, but even store websites weren’t immune. Victoria’s Secret, T.J. Maxx and Marshalls decided to cease operations in their distribution centers and shut down their e-commerce businesses.

There is some hope that when the virus is contained, shopping will get back to normal but in all likelihood the shopping experience in America may never be the same. People could still lean towards social distancing and be fearful of crowds, said Simeon Siegel, an analyst at BMO Capital Markets.“Even when companies are given the all-clear, we don’t yet know when consumers are going to embrace that,” he said. On the other hand, should the lock down duration extend, many of the stores listed above will simply liquidate and never be heard from again.

iv) Swamp commentaries)

 

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

Pelosi delays her coronavirus bill, says will try to pass Senate’s without most members present

House speaker: ‘Put aside some of our concerns for another day, and get this done’

https://justthenews.com/government/congress/pelosi-says-she-will-try-passing-senates-coronavirus-stimulus-without-members

Part of the equity rally could be due to some ‘experts’ asserting that Covid-19 isn’t as bad as portrayed.  However, cases in NY are escalating faster than expected, doubling every three days.

BBG’s @KeshiaClukey: Cuomo says the spread is faster than expected… could reach the peak outbreak in 14-21 days. They’re now projecting a need for 140K beds, higher than the 110K originally projected

@CNBCJulianna: Total cases of coronavirus in the US just over 50k including 637 fatalities according to @NBCNews New York has highest of cases… at 25,665.  New Jersey records 2nd highest with 2,844.

Nobel Laureate Argues Why Coronavirus May Be Over Sooner Than Media Says

The real situation is not as nearly as terrible as they make it out to be,” Levitt says, and, in the end, “we’re going to be fine.”…

    In a report published on February 1, Levitt predicted with remarkable accuracy how China’s cases would end up, saying that around 80,000 would contract the disease and among those around 3,250 would die. Mozingo notes that as of March 16, China, which has nearly 1.4 billion people, reported a total of just 80,298 cases and 3,245 deaths related to the virus and the number of new cases has slowed down to around 25 per day…  What we need is to control the panic,” Levitt told the paper.

    The important metric, Levitt explained, is the number of new cases, not the total number of cases. The new cases data allows one to see more clearly the rate of spread…The flu… has infected 36 million Americans in just over 6 months and killed around 22,000. The total Covid-19 infections in the US is currently just over 40,000 and the total number of deaths connected to infection around 500…

https://www.dailywire.com/news/nobel-laureate-why-coronavirus-crisis-may-be-over-sooner-than-you-think

News Punch: Democrats Demand ‘Digital Dollar’ as Part of Emergency Coronavirus Relief

https://newspunch.com/democrats-demamd-digital-dollar-emergency-coronavirus-relief/

@RoscoeBDavis1: Okay here’s what the democrats want: $100,000,000 to Nasa, $20,000,000,000 to the USPS, $300,000,000 to the Endowment for the Arts$300,000,000 for the Endowment for the Humanities, $30,000,000,000 for the Department of Education stabilization fund, $200,000,000 to Safe Schools Emergency Response to Violence Program, $300,000,000 to Public Broadcasting, $500,000,000 to Museums and Libraries, $720,000,000 to Social Security Admin, only $200,000,000 is to help people. The rest is for admin costs…$7,500,000 to the Smithsonian for additional salaries, $35,000,000 to the JFK Center for performing Arts…$3,000,000,000 upgrade to the IT department at the VA, $95,000,000 for the Agency of International Development, $300,000,000 for International Disaster Assistance, $300,000,000 for Migrant and Refugee Assistance, $90,000,000 for the Peace Corp, $13,000,000 to Howard University… $40,000,000,000 goes to the Take Responsibility to Workers and Families Act…$1,000,000,000 Airlines Recycle and Save Program…$1,000,000,000 for more Obamaphones!… $10,000,000 for Migrant and Seasonal Farmworker programs, $100,000,000 for ‘‘Job Corps’’… $9,500,000,000, for ‘‘Higher Education’’…$33,200,000 for NOAA new facilities… [“Automatic Extension of Nonimmigrant Visas”, reportedly 1/3 are Chinese; and much, much more!]

 

GOP @RepAndyHarrisMD: No voter ID to get a ballot, and anonymous “ballot harvesting”…why is that hidden in Speaker Pelosi’s coronavirus bill? These are issues that shouldn’t be addressed…

 

Pelosi ‘Stimulus’ Bill Imposes Nationwide ‘Ballot Harvesting’ Without ‘Any Limit’

“Ballot harvesting” was legalized in California in 2016…  It allows anyone to drop off someone else’s mail-in ballot at a polling station. There is no process for vetting or verifying those delivering the ballots — no background checks or identification requirements. Democrats dropped hundreds of thousands of ballots off at polling stations in 2018, helping Dems as they flipped seven Republican seats.

https://www.breitbart.com/2020-election/2020/03/23/pelosi-stimulus-bill-imposes-nationwide-ballot-harvesting-without-any-limit/

 

Democrats Take Advantage of National Emergency to Federalize Elections

Top 5 Most Egregious Provisions: Ballot Harvesting… Same-day… Private Rights of Action – Further burdens states with potential future lawsuits… Polling Locations… Mandates that states place polling locations in areas within walking distance of public transportation… Provisional Ballots – Any provisional ballots must be counted no matter where cast within the State…

https://republicans-cha.house.gov/media/press-releases/democrats-take-advantage-national-emergency-federalize-elections

 

@dlacalle_IA: 75% of small businesses cannot last a month with zero revenues. The median cash buffer is 27 days. This is why we need serious supply measures to allow businesses to survive a mandatory shutdown. [Chart at]: https://twitter.com/dlacalle_IA/status/1242348547682557953?s=09

@SullyCNBC: [Invesco] Mortgage investment firm warns it can’t fund margin calls… 2nd mortgage REIT to get into trouble in a week  [The mortgage market is estimated at $16 trillion.]

 

Clemson QB started GoFundMe campaign for coronavirus victims. NCAA rules shut it down

https://www.thestate.com/sports/college/acc/clemson-university/article241443591.html#storylink=cpy

Doctors hoarding untested ‘anti-coronavirus’ drugs for themselves [Doctors have voted.]

The doctors are prescribing chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine for themselves and their loved ones even though there is no scientific proof that the pharmaceuticals combat the contagion…

https://nypost.com/2020/03/24/doctors-hoarding-untested-anti-coronavirus-drugs-for-themselves-report/

Gov. Cuomo says New York needs ventilators now, help from GM, Ford ‘does us no good’

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/24/gov-cuomo-says-new-york-needs-ventilators-now-help-from-gm-ford-does-us-no-good.html

Cuomo could have purchased the additional 16,000 needed ventilators for $36,000 apiece or a total of $576 million in 2015. It’…less than the $750 million he threw away on a boondoggle “Buffalo Billion” solar panel factory…  https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/03/18/new_yorks_ventilator_rationing_plan_142685.html

Dr. Fauci to the MSM: “I wish you would stop trying to create a rift between me and President Trump. There is none, you are not helping us, I wish you would stop.”

NYC councilman who accused people of prejudice for not going to Chinatown on March 1 now thinks he has coronavirus     https://twitchy.com/gregp-3534/2020/03/24/nyc-councilman-who-accused-people-of-prejudice-for-not-going-to-chinatown-on-march-1-now-thinks-he-has-coronavirus/

Dr. Keith Rose @TheScalpeledge: I have performed medical work around the world for over 20 years.  I was in the Middle East during H1N1 and in Africa while Ebola was raging.   Physicians should follow the facts and data and report the actual metrics… For the past 3 weeks we have been inundated with story after story about “potential ventilator” shortages.  A close look at reports from news agencies reveal the same key words and phrases indicating coordinating messaging… Now 3 weeks later there is no run on hospital ICU beds.  90% of people infected who will show symptoms do so in 5 days.  Still no run on ICU beds.  Why won’t anyone adjust course.  Active Coronavirus numbers don’t even approach last year’s flu season– 60 million cases, 257K hospitalizations and 18K+ deaths (CDC).  Currently we have 1175 hospitalizations and 696 deaths due to COVID-19 and over 70% of deaths are in CA, NY, WA.  In a nation of 330 million… Have the positive patients stay home (1%), not the entire nation (99%).  Peer review studies on active COVID19 show <5% transmission with direct contact in public.  Good hygiene &social spacing will seize the day.  Shelter in place will shutter communities & cripple nation.

“There is nothing more frightful than ignorance in action. — Goethe

 

end

Let us close with this great commentary from Gerald Celente..

Greatest Depression Already Started – Gerald Celente

By Greg Hunter On March 25, 2020

Gerald Celente, a top trends researcher and Publisher of The Trends Journal, says the world is already in an economic depression. Celente explains, “Never in the history of the world has the whole world, or most of the world, been shut down by politicians destroying people’s lives and their businesses. People are going to go bankrupt. You are going to see suicide rates increase. You are going to see crime escalate and people OD’ing on drugs because of depression. . . . Our leaders are totally closing down the economy. Again, this has never been done before. It’s not only Wall Street going down, Main Street went down simultaneously. That is unprecedented. Usually, the markets go down and then the ripple effects start hitting Main Street. This time–boom, they are both down. . . . It’s going to be worse than the Great Depression. It’s going to be the Greatest Depression.”

What’s the biggest problem the economy faces? Celente says, “The debt levels are phenomenal. We have more than $250 trillion of global debt and all the personal debt. How are you going to pay the credit card debt? How about paying the student debt, car loans and the mortgages? What about the electric bill, phone bill and people are out of work because my governor said I should stay home?”

The next play by global governments is to get rid of cash because it carries germs like the coronavirus. Celente says, “We are going to go from ‘Dirty Cash to Digital Trash,’ which is also the title of the current Trends Journal. They’ve got people freaked out. They are going to give us digital trash. That’s what they are doing. They are going to get rid of the currencies that you have.”

After talk of trillions of dollars in new stimulus from Congress this week, what about gold prices? Celente says, “You saw how much the markets went up. How about gold prices? It bounced back $200 per ounce since Friday. . . . The smart money is seeing the fake money being printed, and they are going into gold. Now hear this. Just like the crummy, slimy politicians going after your Constitutional rights and Bill of Rights, they are going to go after your gold. They did it in the last Great Depression, and they are going to do it in the Greatest Depression. You mark my words.”

In closing, Celente says, “I agree with Trump 100% because I have been saying this since the beginning that the cure is going to be worse than the disease. They are destroying the global economy. They are destroying people’s lives. We are going to see crime levels that are unimaginable. Why do you think people are going out and getting guns? Then you are going to see these liberals talking about gun confiscation. Crime is going to escalate, and deaths are going to go through the roof. When people lose everything and have nothing left to lose, they lose it. You are going to see gangs like never before. On the other end, the open borders issue, that is a closed story. They are closing borders all over the world. So, you are not going to hear people say let them in, let them in–that’s over. I agree with Trump. We should go back to business as usual.”

On Trump winning a second term this November, Celente, who calls himself a “political atheist,” says, “It’s a wild card, but I would still go with Trump at this point.”

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes One-on-One with Gerald Celente, Publisher of The Trends Journal, as he gives his top trends and predictions for the virus crisis, the Greatest Depression, gold and silver prices and his pick to win the White House in November.

 

That is all for today

I will see you tomorrow

 

h

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