MARCH 30//THE FILE IS TOO BIG SO TODAY’S COMMENTARY WILL BE A WORK IN PROGRESS SO IT WILL NOT CRASH

GOLD:$1627.10  DOWN $16.30   The quote is London spot price

 

 

 

 

Silver:$14.38//DOWN $0.05  London spot price  

Closing access prices:  London spot

 

 

 

Gold : $1630.00  LONDON SPOT

 

SILVER:  $14.50//LONDON SPOT

 

APRIL comex gold price 2:00 PM:  $1623.00

 

SILVER APRIL COMEX 2 PM:  $14.39

 

 

 

the gold market continues to be broken as future prices are much higher than spot prices.  The comex is desperate to fix things but they have no available gold.

If one is to buy gold and or gold coins, the price is around $1800. usa per oz

and silver; $26.00 per oz//

 

 

 

COMEX DATA

 

 

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING: 0/0

none

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  MAR CONTRACT: 0 NOTICE(S) FOR nil OZ (0.00 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  2914 NOTICES FOR 291,400 OZ  (9.0637 TONNES)

 

 

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR MARCH

 

 

66 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 330,000  OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month: 4667 for 23,335,000 oz

 

BITCOIN MORNING QUOTE  $6358 UP $477 

 

BITCOIN AFTERNOON QUOTE.: $6651 DOWN $85

 

GLD AND SLV INVENTORIES:

WITH GOLD DOWN $16.30: WITH NO PHYSICAL TO BE FOUND ANYWHERE:

WE HAD A STRONG DEPOSIT OF 4.39 TONNES

 

GLD: 953.54 TONNES OF GOLD//

 

 

WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY: AND WITH NO SILVER AROUND

 

A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A MONSTROUS PAPER DEPOSIT OF 8.115 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV

 

 

RESTING SLV INVENTORY TONIGHT:

SLV: 393.502  MILLION OZ./

 

 

 

 

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Let us have a look at the data for today

 

 

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IN SILVER THE COMEX OI ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 142 CONTRACTS FROM 141,483 UP TO 141,625 AND CLOSER TO OUR NEW RECORD OF 244,710, (FEB 25/2020.  THE SMALL GAIN IN OI OCCURRED DESPITE OUR SMALL 5 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. WE MAY HAVE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION.  IT SEEMS THAT ALL OF THE GAIN IN OI IS DUE TO  BANKER SHORT COVERING PLUS A STRONG EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. WE HAD A STRONG NET GAIN IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 3101 CONTRACTS  (SEE CALCULATIONS BELOW)

 

 

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE:   MARCH:  00 AND MAY: 2959 AND JULY: 0 ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  2959 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 2959 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 2959 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 14.795 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 5 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

7.32     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

2.630     MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOV.

20.970   MILLION OZ  FINAL STANDING IN DEC

5.075     MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JAN

1.480    MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN FEB

23.005  MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING FOR MAR

 

FRIDAY, AGAIN OUR CROOKS USED COPIOUS PAPER IN ORDER TO LIQUIDATE SILVER’S PRICE…AND THEY WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL 5 CENTS).. AND, OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS MAY HAVE BEEN UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE SOME  SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR POSITIONS, AS WE DID HAVE A STRONG NET GAIN OF 3101 CONTRACTS OR 15.505 MILLION OZ ON THE TWO EXCHANGES! YOU CAN BET THE FARM THAT OUR BANKER  ARE DESPERATE TO LIQUIDATE THEIR HUGE SHORT POSITIONS IN SILVER.

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF MARCH:

90,207 CONTRACTS (FOR 21 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 90,207 CONTRACTS) OR 451.035 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 4295 CONTRACTS OR 21.812 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF MAR: 451.035 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 64.43% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

 

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2020 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          892.24 MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2020 EFP TOTALS SO FAR: 181.61 MILLION OZ

FEB 2020 EFP’S TOTAL :  ……     259.600 MILLION OZ

MARCH EFP’S SO FAR…..          451.035 MILLION OZ (21 TRADING DAYS AND ALREADY HUGELY SURPASSES FEB AND JAN MONTHLY TOTALS)

 

 

RESULT: WE HAD A SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 142, DESPITE THE SMALL  $0.05 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /FRIDAY… THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A LARGE SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 2959 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER

 

TODAY WE GAINED A HUGE  TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:  3101 CONTRACTS (DESPITE THE TINY 5 CENT LOSS IN PRICE)

 

THE TALLY//EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

i.e 2959 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH INCREASE OF 142 OI COMEX CONTRACTS.AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 5 CENT LOSS IN PRICE OF SILVER/ AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $14.38 // FRIDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY AS WELL AS A HUGE INCREASE IN QUEUE JUMPING!! 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 0.710 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 101% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW  MAR DELIVERY MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 66 NOTICE(S) FOR  330,000 OZ OF SILVER.

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018. AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.70//TODAY’S RECORD OF 244,705 IS SET WITH A PRICE OF: 18.91 (FEB 25/2020)

 

.

 

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 10.025 MILLION OZ/ SEPT 43.030 MILLION OZ//OCT: 7.665 MILLION OZ//   NOV: 2.630 MILLION OZ//DEC:  20.970 MILLION OZ; JAN:  5.075 MILLION OZ.//FEB 1.480 MILLION OZ//MAR: 23.005 MILLION OZ
  2. THE  RECORD PRIOR TO TODAY WAS SET IN FEB 25/2018:  244,710 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $18.90//.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

 

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 

GOLD

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A SMALL 3479 CONTRACTS TO 523,186 AND FURTHER FROM OUR NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE LOSS OF COMEX OI OCCURRED WITH OUR VERY STRONG LOSS IN THE PAPER PRICE OF $16.30 /// COMEX GOLD TRADING// FRIDAY// WE  HAD CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING ALONG WITH ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION ACCOMPANYING AN ATMOSPHERIC  EX. FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED AND YET THIS WAS COUPLED WITH THAT FALL IN THE PAPER PRICE OF GOLD.  THE LOSS ON THE COMEX WAS DUE TO ENDING OF THE  LIQUIDATION OF OUR SPREADERS ( A MINUS),  CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING ( A POSITIVE) AND OUR NORMAL ATMOSPHERIC GAIN IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS. WE GAINED A STRONG 7,531 CONTRACTS  (23.42 TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

 

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

 

 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A HUMONGOUS AND CRIMINALLY SIZED 11,010 CONTRACTS:

CONTRACTS, FEB>  CONTRACTS; MARCH 00 APRIL: 2085. MAY: 0, AND JUNE 8945.; DEC 0 AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO//TOTAL: 11,010.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 523,186. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 7,531 CONTRACTS: 3479 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 11,010 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 7,531 CONTRACTS OR 23.42 TONNES. FRIDAY, WE HAD A CONSIDERABLE LOSS OF $16.40 IN GOLD TRADING…...

AND WITH THAT CONSIDERABLE FALL IN  PRICE, SURPRISINGLY WE  HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN IN  TOTAL/TWO EXCHANGES GOLD TONNAGE OF 23.42  TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS/OFFICIAL SECTOR WERE SUPPLYING INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER WITH RECKLESS ABANDON. THE BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE (FALL $16.40). BUT IT SEEMS THAT THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE ANY GOLD LONGS FROM THE GOLD ARENA WERE UNSUCCESSFUL  ( SEE BELOW) 

 

 

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:

 WE HAD  A STRONG INCREASE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS  (11,010) ACCOMPANYING THE SMALL LOSS IN COMEX OI.(3,479 OI):  TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES:  7,531 CONTRACTS.  WE NO DOUBT HAD 1 )HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING, 2.)ZERO INCREASE IN GOLD OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX,  3) NO LONG LIQUIDATION AND  4/ THE FINAL SPREADER LIQUIDATION (ENDS MARCH 31)///…ALL OF THIS WAS COUPLED WITH THAT HUGE PAPER LOSS IN GOLD PRICE TRADING//FRIDAY

 

 

SPREADING OPERATION FOR OUR NEWCOMERS:

WE HAVE NOW COMMENCED IN GOLD THE ILLEGAL SPREADING OPERATION \ FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS:

 

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW STOPPED IN GOLD AS THEY NOW BEGIN TO MORPH INTO SILVER AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW FRONT MONTH WILL BE APRIL.

 

 

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEW, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE SPREADERS AND THE CRIMINAL ELEMENT BEHIND IT:

 

 

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR SILVER..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR GOLD.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEWCOMERS HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

.

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO GOLD AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX SILVER OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MARCH FOR SILVER:

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON  ACTIVE MONTH OF MAR.BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN GOLD WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (APRIL), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2020 INCLUDING TODAY

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF MAR : 341,907 CONTRACTS OR 34,190,700 oz OR 1,063.47* TONNES (21 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 16,281 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY  (*NEW ALL TIME RECORD FOR A MONTHLY EX. FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 21 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 1,063.47 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2019, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 1063.47/3550 x 100% TONNES =29.95% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD HAS EXPLODED THIS MONTH.

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2020 TO DATE   2287.44  TONNES

JANUARY 2220 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE; : 570.19 TONNES

FEB 2020 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE :            653.78 TONNES

MARCH TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE SO FAR   1,063.47  TONNES  (//(*21 TRADING DAYS//AND A NEW ALL TIME RECORD ISSUANCE)

 

 

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest in SILVER ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 142 CONTRACTS FROM 141,483 UP TO 141,625 AND CLOSER TO  OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 3/4 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

ALL OF THE GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS DUE TO 1) BANKER SHORT COVERING , 2) THE ISSUANCE OF AN ATMOSPHERIC NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (SEE BELOW), 3) A ZERO INCREASE IN SILVER OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX AND 4) ZERO  AMOUNT OF LONG LIQUIDATION 

 

 

EFP ISSUANCE 2959 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 FOR FEB. 0; FOR MAR  0:  AND MAY: 2959; JULY: 00 CONTRACTS   AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2959 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE OI GAIN AT THE COMEX OF 142 CONTRACTS TO THE 2959 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A VERY STRONG GAIN OF 3101 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES  15.505 MILLION  OZ!!! AND WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL  18.765 MILLION OZ FOR MAY  NOW 2.660 MILLION OZ FOR JUNE WITH JULY AT 22.605 MILLION OZ AUGUST AT 10.025 MILLION OZ//  SEPT: 43.030 MILLION OZ///OCT: 7.32 MILLION OZ//NOV 2.63 MILLION OZ//DEC: 20.970 MILLION OZ//JAN: 5.075 MILLION OZ//FEB: 1.480 MILLION OZ//MAR: 23.005 MILLION OZ

 

 

RESULT: A SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE  TINY 5 CENT LOSS IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// FRIDAY. WE ALSO HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED 2959 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON. THE ENTIRE LOSS OF COMEX OI WAS DUE TO SPREADER LIQUIDATION AND THAT HUGE ISSUANCE OF EX. FOR PHYSICALS.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

(report Harvey)

 

 

 

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)MONDAY MORNING/ SUNDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 24.97 POINTS OR 0.90%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 209.17 POINTS OR1.32%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 304.46 POINTS OR 1.57%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 6.56%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 7.0979 /Oil UP TO 20.38 dollars per barrel for WTI and 22.79 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED//ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.0879 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0979 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY PAST 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

 

3b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3C  CHINA

 

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

 

6.Global Issues

 

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

10. important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

iv) Swamp commentaries)

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

LET US BEGIN:

Let us head over to the comex:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A FELL 3479 CONTRACTS TO 523,186 MOVING CLOSER TO OUR  RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020).  AND THIS SMALL COMEX OI LOSS WAS SET DESPITE A STRONG PAPER LOSS OF $16.40 IN GOLD PRICING //FRIDAY’S  COMEX TRADING//). HOWEVER WE ALSO HAD A VERY STRONG EFP ISSUANCE (11,010 CONTRACTS),.  THUS WE HAD 1) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AT THE COMEX AND 2) FINALIZATION OF SPREADER LIQUIDATION WITH 3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AND 4) ZERO INCREASE IN GOLD OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX…  AS WE ENGINEERED A STRONG GAIN ON TWO EXCHANGES OF 7,531 CONTRACTS.

 

 

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MARCH..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 11,010 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

 FEB: 0; MARCH 00 AND APRIL: 2085, MAY: 0  JUNE : 8945 AND 0 FOR DEC AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 11,010 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:  7,531 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 11,010 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A SMALL SIZED 3479 COMEX CONTRACTS.  THE BANKERS PROVIDED ALL THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER TO WHICH OUR LONGS DUTIFULLY ACCEPTED AS THEY GOBBLED UP ATMOSPHERIC AMOUNTS OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WITH A HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING ACCOMPANYING A HUGE  LIQUIDATION OF OUR SPREADERS.

 

 

 

THE BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT FELL BY $16.40). THEY WERE MOST DEFINITELY  UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING ANY LONGS, AS THE TOTAL GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 23.42 TONNES WAS MAINLY DUE TO BANKER SHORT COVERING, ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE AND THE FINALIZATION OF LIQUIDATION OF OUR SPREADERS.. 

 

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES :: 7531 CONTRACTS OR 753,100 OZ OR 23.42 TONNES. 

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT COMMODITY FUTURES OPEN INTEREST SHOULD APPROXIMATE 3% OF TOTAL PRODUCTION.  IN GOLD THE WORLD PRODUCES AROUND 3500 TONNES PER YEAR BUT ONLY 2200 TONNES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE WEST (THUS EXCLUDING RUSSIA, CHINA ETC..WHO KEEP 100% OF THEIR PRODUCTION)

THUS IN GOLD WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:  523,186 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS X 100 OZ PER CONTRACT = 52.31 MILLION OZ/32,150 OZ PER TONNE =  1627 TONNES

THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST REPRESENTS 1627/2200 OR 73.97% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF GOLD.

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 253,787 contracts

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY398,391 contracts//

MARCH 30

 

 

 

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
nil oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz NIL oz

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

11,799.717

OZ

 

LOOMIS

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
0 notice(s)
 0 OZ
(0.00 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
0 contracts
(NIL oz)
NIL TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
2914 notices
291400 OZ
9.0637 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

We had 3 kilobar entries

 

i ) We had 0 deposits into the dealer

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had 3 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan: 0  oz

 

ii) Into LOOMIS: 30,799.700 OZ  (958 KILOBARS)

AND THIS IS A PHONY ENTRY..

III) Into Brinks; 4,694.046 oz

iv) Into International Delaware:  80,377.500 oz (2500 kilobars)

and a phony entry

 

 

total deposits: 115,871.246  oz

 

 

we had 0 gold withdrawals from the customer account:

 

 

 

total gold withdrawals;  NIL   oz

ADJUSTMENTS: 

three:

a)out of HSBC:  312,949.207 oz was adjusted out of the customer account and this landed into the dealer account of HSBC

b) Out of JPMorgan:  792,366.954 oz was adjusted out of the customer account and this landed into the dealer account of JPM

c) Out of Scotia:  17,650.350 oz was adjusted out of the customer account and this landed into the dealer account of Scotia

(549 kilobars)

total adjusted to the dealer: 1,122,966.511 oz

 

 

The front month of MARCH saw its open interest register 0 contracts for a LOSS of 3 contracts.. We had 3 notices filed on WEDNESDAY so we gained  0 contracts or an additional NIL oz will stand on this side of the pond as they refused to morph into London based forwards.  The bankers are seeking rapidly depleting physical supplies of gold on this side of the pond.

 

APRIL HAD  a LOSS of 25,116 contracts DOWN to 32,752 contracts.

WE HAVE ONE MORE READING DAYS BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE: MARCH 31/2020// AND WE WILL HAVE A HUGE AMOUNT OF GOLD OZ STANDING FOR APRIL.

 

May saw its ANOTHER GAIN of 458 contracts to stand at  1873.

June saw a GAIN of 22,246 contracts up to 368,410

 

 

We had 0 notices filed today for NIL oz

 

FOR THE  MAR 2020 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 0 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the March /2020. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (2914) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  MAR. (3 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today (0 x 100 oz per contract) equals 291,400 OZ OR 9.063 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this  active month of MAR

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the MAR/2020 contract month:

No of notices served (2914)x 100 oz)  + (xx OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (0 x 100 oz )which equals 291,400 oz standing OR 9.063 TONNES in this active delivery month which is  a great amount for gold standing for a MAR. delivery month.

We gained 0 contracts or AN ADDITIONAL  nil oz will stand for delivery at the comex.

 

the following data is nothing but fairy tales:  there is no gold at the comex.

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:  BRINKS

3027.500 OZ  REMOVED TO THE PLEDGED ACCOUNT JAN 10.2020/Brinks

176,211.457 oz NOW PLEDGED  JAN 21.2020/HSBC  5.4807 TONNES

341,434.443 oz PLEDGED  MARCH 2020  JPMORGAN:  10.62 TONNES

TOTAL PLEDGED GOLD NOW IN EFFECT:  556,225.90  OZ OR 16.10  TONNES

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES…. WE HAVE 73.6163 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS

total registered or dealer gold:   2,884,412.306 oz or  89.717 tonnes
which  includes the following:
a) pledged gold held at HSBC   which cannot settled upon   176,211.457 oz x ( 5.4807 TONNES)//
b) pledged gold held at JPMorgan (added March 2020) which cannot be settled upon:  341,434.443 oz (or 10.6200 tonnes)
total pledged gold:  517,645.900 oz or 16.10 tonnes
thus:
registered gold that can be used to settle upon: 2,366766.400  (73.6163 tonnes)
true registered gold  (total registered – pledged tonnes  2,366,766.400 oz (73.6163 tonnes)

total registered, pledged  and eligible (customer) gold;   8,862,001.789 oz 275.64 tonnes

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS

 

1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX 

 

2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.

 

3. NO GOLD IS ENTERING THE COMEX

WHY ARE THEY NOT SETTLING?

THE COMEX IS AN ABSOLUTE FRAUD..

WHY ARE THEY NOT SETTLING?

 

THE COMEX IS AN ABSOLUTE FRAUD

end

And now for the wild silver comex results

Total COMEX silver OI ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 142 CONTRACTS FROM 141,483 UP TO 141,625 (AND MOVING CLOSER TO THE NEW ALL TIME RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON FEB 25.2020(244,710) ECLIPSING OUR PREVIOUS RECORD, AUGUST 25/2018 RECORD (244,196).  THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) . OUR SMALL OI COMEX LOSS TODAY OCCURRED WITH OUR SMALL 5 CENT DECREASE IN PRICING/FRIDAY.  THE GAIN IN OI OCCURRED WITH 1)  A HUGE ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS 2) STRONG INCREASE IN SILVER OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX, 3)  HUGE  BANKER SHORT COVERING COUPLED WITH ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION. 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAR.

MAR ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH.

 

THE FRONT MONTH OF MAR HAS A TOTAL OPEN INTEREST OF 66 CONTRACTS  WITH A LOSS OF 42 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 108 CONTRACTS ISSUED WEDNESDAY SO WE GAINED 66 CONTRACTS OR 330,000 ADDITIONAL OZ WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY AS THEY  REFUSED TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARD CONTRACTS AS WELL AS NEGATING A FIAT BONUS. THEY AGAIN ARE TRYING TO FIND PHYSICAL SILVER ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND TO WHICH THERE IS NONE.

 

THE NEXT CONTRACT MONTH OF APRIL SAW GAIN OF 84 CONTRACTS UP TO 900 CONTRACTS. THE BIG CONTRACT OF MAY SAW ITS OI FALL  BY 2617 DOWN TO 83,058.  WE HAVE ONE MORE READING DAYS BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE, MARCH 31.2020.

 

 

We, today, had  66 notice(s) FILED  for 330,000, OZ for the MAR, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

MARCH 30/2019

 

Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 301,895.740 oz
CNT
Scotia

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
1,134,863.019 oz
CNT
Delaware
Scotia
No of oz served today (contracts)
66
CONTRACT(S)
(330,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
0 contracts
 nil oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  4667 contracts

23,335,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

**

 

total dealer deposits: 0 oz

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

i)we had  2 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:   0

ii)into CNT:  588,086.220 oz

ii) Into Scotia; 600,078.180 oz

 

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017, 2018 and onward, has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 160.819 million oz of  total silver inventory or 50.04% of all official comex silver. (160.819 million/321/375 million

total customer deposits today: 1,188,164.380   oz

we had 1 withdrawals:

 

i) Out of  CNT:  159,428.220  oz

 

 

 

 

total withdrawals;  159,428.220  oz

We had 2 adjustments:

i) Out of Delaware: 4904.981 oz was adjusted out of the dealer and this lands into the customer of Delaware

ii) Out of Scotia:  140,363.920 oz was adjusted out of the dealer and this lands into the customer of Scotia.

 

 

total dealer silver:  82.499 million

total dealer + customer silver:  321.375 million oz

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The total number of notices filed today for the MAR 2020. contract month is represented by 66 contract(s) FOR 330,000 oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in MAR we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 4667 x 5,000 oz = 23,335,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAR.( 66) and the number of notices served upon today 66 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the MAR/2019 contract month: 4667 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of MAR (66)- number of notices served upon today (66) x 5000 oz equals 23,335,000 oz of silver standing for the MAR contract month.

WE GAINED 66 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 330,000 OZ WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME:  55,884 CONTRACTS //

 

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY:  60,476 CONTRACTS..,

 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 60,476CONTRACTS EQUATES to 302 million  OZ  43.1% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott

 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO +.11% ((MARCH 27/2020)

2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV  FALLS TO -1.11% to NAV:   (MAR 27/2020 )

Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into POSITIVE/ 0.11%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 14.90 TRADING 14.80///DISCOUNT 0.65

END

 

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

MARCH 27.WITH GOLD DOWN $16.40: A BIG  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD  A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 4.39 TONES INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 953.54 TONES

MARCH 26//WITH GOLD UP $24.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 13.17 TONNES INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 949.15 TONNES

MARCH 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.40 TODAY//A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 11.99 TONES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY////INVENTORY RESTS AT 935.98 TONNES

MARCH 24//WITH GOLD UP $67.00 TODAY: A HUGE  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 15.80 TONNES OF GOLD INTO GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 923.99 TONNES..THIS PROVES THAT THE GLD IS A FRAUD AS LONDON SUSPENDED DELIVERY AS WELL AS ALL REFINERS.  THEY HAD NO WAY OF GETTING ANY PHYSICAL OZ INTO ITS INVENTORY//

MARCH 23//WITH GOLD UP $76.00 TODAY: A  HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 21.50 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 908.19 TONNES

MARCH 20//WITH GOLD UP $5.50//A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 7.46 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 922.23 TONNES

MARCH 19/WITH GOLD DOWN 90 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 929.84 TONNES

MARCH 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $48.00: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 929.84 TONNES

MARCH 17/WITH GOLD UP $37.60: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.75 TONNES FROM GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 929.84 TONNES

MARCH  16/WITH GOLD DOWN $30.00/ A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 12.59 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 931.59 TONNES

MARCH 13//WITH GOLD DOWN $73.60: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 9.02 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD FROM THE GLD//

INVENTORY RESTS AT 944.18 TONNES

MARCH 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $55.05 TODAY:  NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/953.26 TONNES

 

MAR 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.95?/A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 10.53 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 953.26 TONNES

MARCH 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.25//A HUGE 8.00 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD DEPOSIT INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 963.79

MARCH 9//WITH GOLD UP $1.50 : NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 955.60 TONNES

March 6/WITH GOLD UP $6.25 A MASSIVE 21.37 PAPER TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 955.60 TONNES

MARCH 5/WITH GOLD UP $25.40//NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 934.23 TONNES

MARCH 4//WITH GOLD DOWN 1 DOLLAR: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.23 TONNES//

MARCH 3//WITH GOLD UP 48.55 TODAY; NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.23 TONNES

MARCH 2//WITH GOLD UP $27.00// no change in gold inventory at the gld//inventory remains  at 934.23 tonnes

FEB 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $73.00 WE LOST NO GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS 934.23 TONNES

FEB 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.45: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.86 TONNES FROM THE GLD

FEB 26./WITH GOLD DOWN  TODAY/ GOLD INVENTORY INCREASES BY 6.15 TONNES//GLD INVENTORY AT 640.09 TONNES

FEB 24/with gold up $28.40//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 933.94 TONNES

FEB 21/WITH GOLD UP $28.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A HUGE PAPER DEPOSIT OF:2.34 TONNES   //INVENTORY RESTS AT 933.94 TONNES

FEB 20/WITH GOLD UP $9.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A HUGE 1.76 TONNES OF GOLD DEPOSIT//INVENTORY RESTS AT 931.60 TONNES

FEB 19/WITH GOLD UP $8.25 TODAY//A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 5.85 TONNES//GOLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 929.84 TONES

FEB 18. WITH GOLD UP $17.00//A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.76 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 923.99 TONNES

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

MARCH 27/2020/Inventory rests tonight at 953.54 tonnes

*IN LAST 788 TRADING DAYS: +8.85 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD

*LAST 688 TRADING DAYS;+ 183.83. TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

MARCH 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A MONSTROUS PAPER DEPOSIT OF 8.115 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV../INVENTORY RESTS AT 393.502  MILLION OZ//

MARCH 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 385.387 MILLION OZ///

MARCH 25/WITH SILVER UP 44 CENTS TODAY: TWO HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: TWO DEPOSITS OF 7.369 MILLION OZ AND 2.239 MILLION OZ OF PAPER SILVER INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 385.387 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 24//WITH SILVER UP 100 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.779 MILLION OZ///

MARCH 23//WITH SILVER UP 70 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A DEPOSIT OF 2.332 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.779 MILLION OZ

MARCH 20//WITH SILVER UP 39 CENTS TODAY: 2 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.026 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV AND THEN A PAPER ADDITION OF 3.638 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 373.447 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 19/WITH SILVER UP 38 CENTS TODAY//A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: ANOTHER 5.597 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR ADDED TO THE SLV INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 370.835 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 18//WITH SILVER DOWN 75 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A MONSTROUS 12.035 MILLION PAPER OZ ADDED INTO INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 365.238 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY; A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.735 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV INVENTORY: INVENTORY RESTS AT 353.203 MILLION OZ///

MARCH 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 177 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESETS AT 356.938 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 13//WITH SILVER DOWN 155 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.893 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 356.938 MILLION OZ;

MARCH 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 77 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.119 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 359.828 MILLION OZ

MARCH 11/SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS:  A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF .467 MILLION OZ AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 360.947 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.414 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 9/NO CHANGE IN INVENTORY LEVELS: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.414 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 6//WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.414 MILLION OZ

MARCH 5//WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY; A SMALL WITHDRAWAL DUE TO FEES ETC//INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 361.414 MILLION OZ..

MARCH 4/SILVER SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.880 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 3/WITH SILVER UP 44 CENTS//A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A LOSS OF 5.75 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV../INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.880 MILLION OZ

MARCH 2//WITH SILVER UP 18 CENTS//NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV..INVENTORY RESTS AT 367.632 MILLION OZ//

FEB 28/ WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS: a loss of 1.867 million oz//inventory rests at 367.632 million oz

FEB 27/WITH SILVER DOWN TODAY: A STRONG GAIN OF 747000 OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV

FEB 26\WITH SILVER DOWN TODAY,A HUGE GAIN OF 5.319 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 368.752 MILLION OZ

FEB 24/WITH SILVER UP 35 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.433 TONNES

FEB 21//WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.433 TONNES

FEB 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.433 TONNES

FEB 19/WITH SILVER UP 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.433 MILLION OZ//

FEB 18/. WITH SILVER UP 42 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.433 MILLION OZ.

 

 

MARCH 27.2020:

SLV INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT  393.502 MILLION OZ.

 

END

 

 

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.24/ and libor 6 month duration 2.20

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: – .04

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.74%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 1.07

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  =-1.67

end

 

 

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

 

 

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

John Kim: Comex issues and stops reports expose Comex physical gold supply problems

 Section: 

By John Kim
Friday, March 28, 2020

Right now, the latest Comex issues and stops reports expose Comex physical gold supply problems. Though I have written about the various reasons why physical gold supply problems manifest many times in the past, this topic still remains one rarely discussed by financial journalists, and never discussed by the mass financial media.

For client accounts, when bullion banks stop more notices than issued, they will lose physical inventory.

… 

For house accounts, the opposite is true. When bullion banks issue more notices than stops, they will lose physical inventory as well.

Normally when bullion banks manufacture waterfall declines in paper gold and silver prices, as they did earlier this month, with the complicity of the CME’s largely unreported rampage in raising initial and maintenance margins on futures contracts many times within a two-month period in the midst of a stock market crash, they load up on physical gold and silver for their house accounts while ensuring that their clients take almost zero delivery of physical gold and silver ounces. However, if they are unable to execute this clever strategy, this is when physical gold supply problems can manifest.

In fact, I have not seen a single news site in the entire world, except for my own, mention the relentless increase in initial and maintenance margins in gold and silver futures contracts (the 100-ounce gold futures contract and the 5000-ounce silver futures contract) for the past two months in a desperate attempt to knock long positions out of the game and thereby prevent an increasing amount of physical delivery requests.

Just recently, the CME raised margins yet again for 100-ounce gold futures contracts to $9,185/$8,350 for initial/maintenance margins, representing a massive 86% increase in margins, and for 5000-ounce silver futures contracts to $9.900/$9,000 for initial/maintenance margins, representing a gigantic 73% increase in margins, in just a couple months’ time.

Normally, such relentless increases in initial/maintenance margins in gold futures markets is sufficient to prevent physical gold supply problems from afflicting futures markets, but the fact that even this reliable manipulation mechanism failed recently is a sign of additional tectonic earthquakes to come in the global financial system.

However, as you can see for the data I have compiled for the behavior of issues and stops for client and house accounts for bullion banks in gold and silver from December 2019 to March 2020, this pattern of normal behavior, in which bullion banks take advantage of their own artificially manufactured paper gold and silver price plunges to load up on physical metals at the expense of their clients, has strongly reversed during this four-month time span.

I have included only data for the major gold (100 ounce) and silver (5,000 ounce) futures contracts below and not for the mini-gold (10 ounce) and mini-silver (1,000 ounce) silver futures contracts. …

… For the remainder of the analysis:

https://maalamalama.com/wordpress/comex-physical-gold-supply-problems-/2…

end

You mean there was never any gold at the Comex?

 Section: 

Coronavirus Sparks a Global Gold Rush

By Liz Hoffman, Amrith Ramkumar, and Joe Wallace
The Wall Street Journal
Friday, March 27, 2020

It’s an honest-to-God doomsday scenario and the ultimate doomsday-prepper market is a mess.

As the coronavirus pandemic takes hold, investors and bankers are encountering severe shortages of gold bars and coins. Dealers are sold out or closed for the duration. Credit Suisse Group AG, which has minted its own bars since 1856, told clients this week not to bother asking. In London, bankers are chartering private jets and trying to finagle military cargo planes to get their bullion to New York exchanges.

… 

It’s getting so bad that Wall Street bankers are asking Canada for help. The Royal Canadian Mint has been swamped with requests to ramp up production of gold bars that could be taken down to New York.

With staff reduced at the Royal Canadian Mint because of the virus, the government-owned company is only producing one variation of bullion bars, according to Amanda Bernier, a senior sales manager. She said the mint has received “unprecedented levels of demand,” largely from U.S. banks and brokers.

The price of gold futures rose about 9% to roughly $1,620 a troy ounce this week—that is 31.1034768 grams, per the U.K. Royal Mint—and neared a seven-year high. Only on a handful of occasions since 2000 have gold prices risen more in a single week, including immediately after Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy in September 2008.

“When people think they can’t get something, they want it even more,” says George Gero, 83, who’s been trading gold for more than 50 years, now at RBC Wealth Management in New York. “Look at toilet paper.”

Gold has been prized for thousands of years and today goes into items ranging from jewelry to dental crowns to electronics. For decades, the value of paper money was pinned to gold; tons of it sat in Fort Knox to reassure Americans their dollars were worth something. Today they just have to trust. President Nixon unpegged the dollar from gold in 1971.

The government still holds lots of gold in Fort Knox, though not as much as it did decades ago. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York has a massive gold stash. That gold isn’t released on the open market, though; it’s held as national reserve. London is the hub of physical gold trading that often changes hands.

Gold is popular with survivalists and conspiracy theorists but it is also a sensible addition to investment portfolios because its price tends to be relatively stable. It is especially in-demand during economic crises as a shield against inflation. When the Federal Reserve floods the economy with cash, like it is doing now, dollars can get less valuable.

“Gold is the one money that can’t be printed,” said Roy Sebag, CEO of Goldmoney Inc., which has one of the world’s largest private stashes, worth about $2 billion. (He’d rather not say where, for obvious reasons.)

There are two ways to own gold: in bars or coins or jewelry stored in bank vaults, or in futures contracts traded on an exchange, which guarantee the holder a certain amount of gold at a certain price on a certain date.

Those contracts trade on CME Group Inc.’s Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. The problem? Much of the world’s gold is in London and has been since the 17th century, when the Bank of England set up a vault.

Today, the Bank of England says it has the second-largest collection of gold in its vault, behind only the New York Fed.

The disruptions this week pushed the gold futures price, on the New York exchange, as much as $70 an ounce above the price of physical gold in London. Typically, the two trade within a few dollars of each other.

That gulf sparked a high-stakes game of chicken in the New York futures market this week. Sharp-eyed traders started snapping up physical delivery contracts, figuring banks would have trouble finding enough gold to make good and they would be able to squeeze them for cash. That set off a scramble by banks.

Goldmoney’s Mr. Sebag said bankers were offering him $100 or more per ounce over the London price to get their hands on some of his New York gold.

Wade Brennan, a former gold trader at Scotiabank who now runs an investment firm called Kilo Capital, said he had heard from bankers in the U.S. who were literally checking the corners of their vaults for any gold that might have been overlooked.

“Everyone’s looking through the cupboard,” he said.

As of November, London housed 8,263 metric tons of gold, valued at $387.9 billion, according to the London Bullion Market Association. The biggest hoard is kept by the Bank of England, which looks after around 400,000 gold bars on behalf of the U.K. government, commercial banks and central banks in other countries, hidden in nine vaults under the narrow streets of the City of London.

Getting gold to New York, where it can be sent on to gold dealers, jewelers, dentists and electronics makers, is a heavy lift in the best of times, and, it turns out, quite tricky during a pandemic.

Most gold bars are stowed in the cargo hold of passenger planes. Security firms such as Loomis Group, which arrange the flights and meet planes on the tarmac, don’t like to move more than about five tons on any flight, in case the plane crashes and because of high insurance costs. From there, the haul is trucked under heavy guard to New York warehouses.

International flights are largely grounded now.

What’s more, there is limited new supply. Mines in countries such as Peru and South Africa are also shut down because of the coronavirus. Once-busy Swiss refineries that turn raw metal into gold bars closed earlier this week as the country’s coronavirus cases neared 10,000.

There is still a lot of gold in the world, some $10 trillion worth, but “it’s not in the right place,” said Simon Mikhailovich, co-founder of the Bullion Reserve, which holds on to gold for investors.

David Smith owns a wristwatch business in northern England and said Tuesday his bullion dealers weren’t taking any more orders. He has been scouring social media for individuals who might sell to him.

“You can’t really get physical gold and silver anywhere at the moment,” he said.

He began investing personally in metals a few years ago after watching videos from Mike Maloney, creator of the website goldsilver.com. Like other online dealers, the site currently has a notice saying products are back-ordered up to 12 weeks and that there is a $1,000 delivery order minimum.

The title of Mr. Maloney’s latest podcast: “Unaffordium and unobtanium.” (The latter has popped up in the plots of science fiction movies).

The Bank of England on Wednesday emailed banks that keep gold in its vault to reassure them it still had access to deliveries and airports. Bankers with gold vaults in Canary Wharf, on the city’s eastern edge, are worried by the closure of nearby London City Airport, a popular hopping-off point for flights that move gold to and from Switzerland and Luxembourg.

For those able to deliver, though, there is big money to be made. In normal times, it costs around 20 cents to fly an ounce of gold, just under 20 cents to melt the bars down and refabricate them to match New York’s delivery standards, and another 10 cents or so in financing costs, according to a retired senior gold trader. (London bars are heavier than those in demand in New York.)

So if New York prices are $1 an ounce higher than in London, a bank can make $80,000 moving five metric tons of gold—almost risk-free.

At Tuesday’s prices, the same load would net $11 million in profit, minus the cost of chartering the jet.

* * *

END

iii) Other physical stories:

special thanks to Doug C for sending this to us:

Reuters

UPDATE 1- Coronavirus pushes London banks to consider additional gold storage sites

(Recasts, adds quotes, context)

By Peter Hobson

LONDON, March 27 (Reuters) – The five banks that clear gold trades in the London market are considering expanding their network of storage locations to other countries if it becomes impossible to fly enough gold in and out of London, said two sources involved in the discussions.

The move would be aimed at reducing the risk of disruption if metal cannot reach London, the world’s most important physical gold trading hub, where trades are underpinned by metal held in high-security vaults.

The five banks – HSBC, JPMorgan, Scotiabank , UBS and ICBC Standard – clear trades worth about $30 billion a day.

Lockdowns to contain the spread of the coronavirus have already shut down several major metal refineries and most global air travel.

This caused gold prices in New York and London to move sharply apart this week as traders worried that metal couldn’t be flown from London to New York to settle contract obligations.

The London Bullion Market Association, which oversees the London trade hub, on Friday said that it was looking with clearing banks and other market participants at “the feasibility of global delivery outside of London”.

The clearing banks are preparing to accept gold at vaults in Switzerland and elsewhere, the two sources said, adding that a final decision had not yet been taken.

The plans could include vaults that the banks operate as well as storage run by other companies, including refineries and logistics businesses, one of the sources said.

JPMorgan, HSBC and ICBC Standard declined to comment. Scotiabank and UBS did not respond to requests for comment.

The LBMA also said it was working with refiners, shippers and banks “to overcome travel constraints and ensure the physical movement of metal via, for example, chartered or cargo flights”.

Gold is typically transported in the holds of passenger planes, most of which are no longer flying.

The LBMA said there was more than enough refining capacity in the world to meet demand.

“While a few refiners have suspended production as a result of COVID-19, the other good delivery refiners are ready and able to accommodate the industry’s needs,” it said.

Good delivery refiners are those accredited by the LBMA. There are 72 of these in 31 countries, supplying the vast majority of the world’s gold.

However, several of the most important of these refiners have closed. Three in Switzerland – the biggest refining centre – suspended production this week. Royal Canadian Mint also shut temporarily and South Africa’s Rand Refinery has implemented a sharp reduction in output.

The supply disruption has coincided with a surge in demand for gold, which is often bought as a safe-haven investment in times of turmoil.

Reporting by Peter Hobson Editing by Mark Potter and David Goodman

end

And then Doug C sent this for us:

Gold and Silver Break Free From Their Paper Chains – David Brady (26/03/2020)

Gold and Silver Break Free From Their Paper Chains - David Brady (26/03/2020)

March 26, 2020

Last week I wrote “Paper Prices Dump, but Premiums for the Physical Metals Soar on Heavy Demand”. My sincere thanks to the many Twitter followers who alerted me to this phenomenon around the world almost two weeks ago now, in which prices for physical Gold and Silver were soaring and inventories were fast running out. Despite encroaching censorship, Twitter still remains an important tool for sharing valuable information. Since then, Silver prices reached a peak of around $35 CAD and ~$25 USD, but that was as of last Friday. It is now almost impossible to know what the real price is, because inventories have disappeared. It could be much, much higher now. We just don’t know.

The final confirmation that Gold and Silver supply had almost run out came last Friday from the Royal Canadian Mint, home of the Maple Leafs (no, not the hockey team, the coins):

h/t @TFMetals

Moving to the demand side of the equation, Eric Sprott of Sprott Money, the largest precious metals dealer in Canada and one of the largest in North America, stated in a public interview last Friday that demand had increased “10x” in the past week alone.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=clzlYl1T6DI&feature=youtu.be

What happens in the real world (not the paper monopoly world) when demand soars and supply disappears? Economics 101, the price goes vertical. This is exactly what was happening to physical Gold and Silver.

If that were not enough, we got even more incredible news on Sunday:

The biggest refineries of Gold in the world had closed down due to the spreading pandemic. No newly-refined Gold means no new supply. All doubts about the dislocation between the price of physical and paper prices due to soaring demand, disappearing inventories, and non-existent supply were now erased. But if that wasn’t sufficient, this final piece of news on Tuesday from Reuters was the nail in the proverbial coffin…

Someone had demanded delivery on Gold futures from the CME’s COMEX exchange in NY, home of the paper futures markets, in such size that the CME had to make the unprecedented move to request the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) supply them with Gold to meet the delivery request.

Pause and think about that for a second. The paper futures market in New York is supposedly backed by ‘some’ Gold, but when someone demanded delivery, they didn’t have any and had to go crawling to London to get it. Otherwise they would have had to default on the futures contract and effectively close the COMEX altogether, causing a run on Gold (and Silver).

Again, the paper futures market in Gold had no Gold to back it! I often say that if you are investing in Gold and Silver, buy the physical, not futures or ETFs, as they are just paper substitutes. This is why. When you want delivery of the underlying metal, it may not be there. Even the counterparty behind the ETF may have gone bankrupt or at best will simply “cash settle” the contract.

This was yet further confirmation that the world, including even the COMEX, had virtually run out of physical Gold and Silver. Yet people still follow the paper price. Go figure.

This situation is fraught with risk for the Bullion Banks that are still short precious metals. Should the price skyrocket, and it already has to some extent, they would be bankrupt, or at best, forced to accept a bailout. Some banks are already exiting the business altogether for this reason. ABN Amro is one of the first, but it won’t be the last:

In conclusion, the paper markets have become a mirage given that there is little product to back their derivatives. The physical market has completely seized up because there is virtually zero inventory or supply. We see the paper prices daily, but we have little idea of what the true physical price is now. What does an economics textbook chart look like for price when there is enormous demand but no supply?

Two final points. Who demanded physical delivery of Gold from the COMEX? Although everyone is supposed to be able to demand delivery, in reality they cannot. As I always say when people consider doing this: “Go ahead and try!” The banks will cash settle. Only someone with considerable resources could force the COMEX to deliver physical Gold in size at a time when the world is running out of Gold and thus knowingly risk breaking the paper markets in physical metals altogether. But who? The answer to this could have major implications for financial markets and geopolitics as a whole. What if it were an agency of the Russian or Chinese government? Whoever it was, they had the power to demand it and get it.

The second and final point is: where do we go from here? The risk to the COMEX futures market remains very real until supply comes back on line. The lifeline from London will only last so long if physical demand continues to remain strong, or worse, increase. We can only guess at what the true physical price is now. As I tweeted before, the paper price is now about as real as a game of monopoly, imho.

Once physical supply comes back online (and that could be some time from now), we could see the physical price dip “temporarily”, then soar again. Central banks around the world will keep on printing, and the governments will keep on spending until this pandemic passes and markets recover (and likely thereafter), massively debasing their currencies in the process. Stagflation is the biggest risk, followed by hyperinflation, then the Great Depression 2.0. What assets perform best in those scenarios? Hard assets like “physical” Gold and Silver. There is no alternative, imho.

About Sprott Money

Specializing in the sale of bullion, bullion storage and precious metals registered investments, there’s a reason Sprott Money is called “The Most Trusted Name in Precious Metals”.

Since 2008, our customers have trusted us to provide guidance, education, and superior customer service as we help build their holdings in precious metals—no matter the size of the portfolio. Chairman, Eric Sprott, and President, Larisa Sprott, are proud to head up one of the most well-known and reputable precious metal firms in North America. Learn more about Sprott Money.


David Brady has managed money for over 25 years for major international banks and corporate multinationals both in Europe and the US, with experience in Bonds, Equities, Foreign Exchange, and Commodities
end

“There’s No Gold” – COMEX Report Exposes Conditions Behind Physical Crunch

Early this week, we were among the first to report on the “break down” in precious metals markets.

While the demand for gold has been soaring as a safe haven asset amid the multiple global crises we are currently facing,forced paper gold liquidation (as leveraged funds scramble to cover margin calls) and unprecedented logistical disruptions created a frantic hunt for actual bars of gold.

Specifically, as Bloomberg details, at the center of it all are a small band of traders who for years had cashed in on what had always been a sure-fire bet: shorting gold futures in New York against being long physical gold in London. Usually, they’d ride the trade out till the end of the contract when they’d have a couple of options to get out without marking much, if any, loss.

But the virus, and the global economic collapse that it’s sparking, have created such extreme price distortions that those easy-exit options disappeared on them. Which means that they suddenly faced the threat of having to deliver actual gold bars to the buyers of the contract upon maturity.

It’s at this point that things get really bad for the short-sellers.

To make good on maturing contracts, they’d have to move actual gold from various locations. But with the virus shutting down air travel across the globe, procuring a flight to transport the metal became nearly impossible.

If they somehow managed to get a flight, there was another major problem. Futures contracts in New York are based on 100-ounce bullion bars. The gold that’s rushed in from abroad is almost always a different size.

The short-seller needs to pay a refiner to re-melt the gold and re-pour it into the required bar shape in order for it to be delivered to the contract buyer. But once again, the virus intervenes: Several refiners, including three of the world’s biggest in Switzerland, have shut down operations.

“I realized it was going to be an extremely volatile day,” Tai Wong, the head of metals derivatives trading at BMO Capital Markets in New York, said of Tuesday. “We watched this panic develop literally over the course of 12 hours. Having seen enough market dislocations, you recognize that the frenzy wasn’t likely to last, but at the same time you also don’t know how long it would extend.”

By the end of the week, the shorts had sourced the metal and chartered flights, reverting the spot-futures spread…

But Morgan Stanley’s Exchange-For-Physical Index shows a large physical premium remains

The real price.. for real gold?Nearer $1,800. If you can get it.

“There’s no gold,” says Josh Strauss, partner at money manager Pekin Hardy Strauss in Chicago (and a bullion fan).

“There’s no gold. There’s roughly a 10% premium to purchase physical gold for delivery. Usually it’s like 2%. I can buy a one ounce American Eagle for $1,800,” said Josh Strauss. “$1,800!”

“The case for gold is simple,” says Strauss.

You want to own gold in times of financial dislocation and or inflation. And that’s been the case since time immemorial. And gold behaves well in those cases. In those cases stocks behave poorly. It’s a great portfolio hedge. Gold does poorly when you’ve got strong economic growth and low inflation. Tell me when that’s going to happen. Gold held its value during 2008 and after all that money printing it tripled over the next three years.”

And in case you doubted this, the cost of an American Eagle one ounce coin at the US Mint is now $2,175

J.KIM:

But now we can see more details of what is behind this ‘shortage’ as SKWealthAcamdemy’s J.Kim detailsthe latest COMEX Issues and Stops reports expose conditions behind the COMEX physical gold supply problems. Though I have written about the various reasons why physical gold supply problems manifest many times in the past, this topic still remains one rarely discussed by financial journalists, and never discussed by the mass financial media.

For client accounts, when bullion banks stop more notices than issued, they, will lose physical inventory.

For house accounts, the opposite is true.

When bullion banks issue more notices than stops, then they will lose physical inventory as well. Normally, when bullion banks manufacture waterfall declines in paper gold and silver prices, as they did earlier this month, with the complicity of the CME’s largely unreported rampage in raising initial and maintenance margins on futures contracts many times within a 2-month period in the midst of a stock market crash, they load up on physical gold and silver for their house accounts while ensuring that their clients take almost zero delivery of physical gold and silver ounces. However, if they are unable to execute this clever strategy, this is when physical gold supply problems can manifest.

In fact, I have not seen a single news site in the entire world, except for my own, mention the relentless increase in initial and maintenance margins in gold and silver futures contracts (the 100-oz gold futures contract and the 5000-oz silver futures contract) for the past two months, in a desperate attempt to knock long positions out of the game and thereby prevent an increasing amount of physical delivery requests.

Just recently, the CME raised margins yet again for 100-oz gold futures contracts to $9,185/$8,350 for initial/maintenance margins, representing a massive 86% increase in margins, and for 5000-oz silver futures contracts to $9.900/$9,000 for initial/maintenance margins, representing a gigantic 73% increase in margins, in just a couple months’ time. Normally, such relentless increases in initial/maintenance margins in gold futures markets is sufficient to prevent physical gold supply problems from afflicting futures markets, but the fact that even this reliable manipulation mechanism failed recently is a sign of additional tectonic earthquakes to come in the global financial system.

However, as you can see for the data I have compiled for the behavior of issues and stops for client and house accounts for bullion banks in gold and silver from December 2019 to March 2020, this pattern of normal behavior, in which bullion banks take advantage of their own artificially manufactured paper gold and silver price plunges to load up on physical metals at the expense of their clients, has strongly reversed during this four-month time span. I have only included data for the major gold (100-oz) and silver (5000-oz) futures contracts below and not for the mini gold (10-oz) and mini silver (1000-oz) silver futures contracts.

Furthermore, I only separated out the bullion banks by name that had several hundred to a few thousand contracts stopped or issued, and compiled all other data under the category of “all others”. For those of you that don’t understand the terminology “stopped” and “issued”, the categories refer to the number of delivery notices that were “issued” (short positions issuing notification that underlying gold/silver would be delivered) and “stopped” (long positions receiving a delivery notice).

Therefore, when delivery notices are “issued” in house accounts, the issuing bank is on the hook for delivering the physical ounces associated with the underlying contracts. On the contrary, when notices are “stopped”, then the stopping bank would receive notification of the future delivery of the physical ounces associated with the underlying contracts. The same holds true for client accounts. Thus, all bullion banks desire more stopped than issued notices for their house accounts, and desire more issued versus stopped notices for their client accounts. This way they accumulate more physical inventory during artificially engineered paper price crashes.

As you can see, the massive engineered drop in paper silver prices versus the massively higher physical silver prices for the past month backfired on the bullion banks, as it led to a frenzy of clients asking for physical delivery, whereas in the past, bankers had been able to chase client long positions out of the market without ever being on the hook for physical delivery. Thus the amount of contracts stopped versus issued for clients was nearly break even for silver futures contracts, a pattern I have not witnessed in a long time during a banker raid on paper silver prices.  And in regard to house accounts, under past similar circumstances, I had always observed JP Morgan bankers taking a tremendous amount of physical silver delivery during engineered collapses in paper silver prices. However, during the last four months, this situation did not materialize, perhaps due to the stress on physical stores of silver created by so many clients asking for physical delivery. As you can see in the data I complied above, this time around, JP Morgan bankers were nearly absent in taking physical silver delivery for their house account.  In fact, for the bullion bank house accounts, the amount of stopped versus issued contracts, net, was only 74 contracts, or a mere 395,000 AgOzs for their House accounts. As a basis of comparison, during similarly engineered collapses in paper silver prices in the past, JP Morgan alone was able to accumulate and take delivery of many millions of physical silver ounces.

In regard to real physical gold delivery, the situation was even worse for bullion bankers than their situation with real physical silver delivery, which likely has given rise to physical gold supply problems at the current time. In their client accounts, physical delivery requests exploded, with the net (stopped minus issued) totaling 8,095 contracts representing 800,950 AgOzs of real physical gold requested for delivery. In their house accounts, the bullion banks were unable to yield a positive net situation either, with issued contracts exceeding stopped contracts by 6,107 contracts, representing 610,700 AgOzs.  Thus, when adding these two figures together, the bullion banks are on the hook for delivering more than 1.4M AgOzs.

This unexpected demand on bullion bank physical gold reserves has undoubtedly led to a disruption of physical gold delivery associated with the gold futures markets, though various COMEX spokespeople have claimed there is no shortage of physical gold whatsoever, and that the disruption of delivery is simply due to a disruption in the supply chain caused by the coronavirus pandemic, i.e., when in doubt, blame the coronavirus pandemic for all manifested stresses revealed in the global financial system. Earlier, here, on 24 February, I speculated, well before US stock markets started to crash, that the coronavirus pandemic would be scapegoated for the market crash, and I was 100% right.  Is it possible that the coronavirus pandemic is now being scapegoated for shortages of physical gold as well?

Oddly, a gold analyst, Ole Hanson stated in response to the shortages of gold physical supply in the futures markets: “There is plenty of gold in the market, but it’s not in the right places. Nobody can deliver the gold because we are forced to stay home.” The explicit function of COMEX warehouses is to store the physical gold that backs gold delivery associated with gold futures contracts. Consequently, why is the physical gold “not in the right places” and in these warehouses, as if it is stored where it is supposed to be stored, and the data is accurate (1.76M registered AuOzs and an additional 6.98M eligible AuOzs in COMEX warehouses as of 26 March 2020), there should be no physical gold shortages to meet physical demand right now? Did Mr. Hanson, in his statement that gold is “not in the right places” unwittingly reveal that the reported COMEX warehouse data is fraudulent?

Secondly, some would suggest that ever since the COMEX mandate that paper gold could be used to close out physical delivery requests through EFP (Exchange For Physical) transactions by Exchange Rule 104.36 enacted on February 18, 2005, which allowed for the substitution of gold ETFs for physical gold, that no physical shortage of gold could ever result.

Since paper was allowed to replace physical, could not bullion banks just literally “paper over” any physical supply deficit? And if the answer to this question is yes, then why is the COMEX experiencing physical shortages of gold right now? Well, as I explained in an article that I published on my news site in June 2011, in which I explained how EFP transactions operate (which you can read here), “the Related Position [Physical] must have a high degree of price correlation to the underlying of the Futures transaction so that the Futures transaction would serve as an appropriate hedge for the Related Position [Physical].”  Consequently, since there has been a massive price decoupling between physical and paper gold prices, perhaps this price decoupling has enabled the underlying holder of longs in gold that asked for physical delivery to reject any EFP transaction, since there is no longer a “high degree of price correlation” between paper and physical gold, and to insist on physical gold delivery with no substitution for this request. And this rejection of EFPs and EFS (exchange for swaps) as acceptable behavior is perhaps what is causing the physical gold supply problems in the futures markets right now.

end

Gold Is Now “Unobtanium”

By now it becoming clear to many that demand for precious metals, as the world ‘turns’, is far outpacing supply as major gold suppliers and sellers exclaim “there is no gold.”

One glance at APMEX pages and two things are immediately clear:

1) There is no gold or silver….

2) And if there is, the premium for physical gold and silver over paper is massive…

Put in context, this 100% premium for silver is shocking (h/t @JanGold_)

And the mainstream media is starting to notice as DollarCollapse.com’s John Rubino points out, The Wall Street Journal just published the kind of article gold bugs dream of… Here’s an excerpt:

Coronavirus Sparks a Global Gold Rush

Epic shortage spooks doomsday preppers and bankers alike; ‘Unaffordium and unobtanium.’

It’s an honest-to-God doomsday scenario and the ultimate doomsday-prepper market is a mess.

As the coronavirus pandemic takes hold, investors and bankers are encountering severe shortages of gold bars and coins. Dealers are sold out or closed for the duration. Credit Suisse Group AG, which has minted its own bars since 1856, told clients this week not to bother asking. In London, bankers are chartering private jets and trying to finagle military cargo planes to get their bullion to New York exchanges.

It’s getting so bad that Wall Street bankers are asking Canada for help. The Royal Canadian Mint has been swamped with requests to ramp up production of gold bars that could be taken down to New York.

The price of gold futures rose about 9% to roughly $1,620 a troy ounce this week and neared a seven-year high. Only on a handful of occasions since 2000 have gold prices risen more in a single week, including immediately after Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy in September 2008.

“When people think they can’t get something, they want it even more,” says George Gero, 83, who’s been trading gold for more than 50 years, now at RBC Wealth Management in New York. “Look at toilet paper.”

Worth its weight in Purell

Gold has been prized for thousands of years and today goes into items ranging from jewelry to dental crowns to electronics. For decades, the value of paper money was pinned to gold; tons of it sat in Fort Knox to reassure Americans their dollars were worth something. Today they just have to trust. President Nixon unpegged the dollar from gold in 1971.

Gold is popular with survivalists and conspiracy theorists but it is also a sensible addition to investment portfolios because its price tends to be relatively stable. It is especially in-demand during economic crises as a shield against inflation. When the Federal Reserve floods the economy with cash, like it is doing now, dollars can get less valuable.

“Gold is the one money that can’t be printed,” said Roy Sebag, CEO of Goldmoney Inc., which has one of the world’s largest private stashes, worth about $2 billion.

The disruptions this week pushed the gold futures price, on the New York exchange, as much as $70 an ounce above the price of physical gold in London. Typically, the two trade within a few dollars of each other.

That gulf sparked a high-stakes game of chicken in the New York futures market this week. Sharp-eyed traders started snapping up physical delivery contracts, figuring banks would have trouble finding enough gold to make good and they would be able to squeeze them for cash. That set off a scramble by banks.

Goldmoney’s Mr. Sebag said bankers were offering him $100 or more per ounce over the London price to get their hands on some of his New York gold.

What’s more, there is limited new supply. Mines in countries such as Peru and South Africa are shut down because of the coronavirus. Once-busy Swiss refineries that turn raw metal into gold bars closed earlier this week as the country’s coronavirus cases neared 10,000.

David Smith owns a wristwatch business in northern England and said Tuesday his bullion dealers weren’t taking any more orders. He has been scouring social media for individuals who might sell to him.

“You can’t really get physical gold and silver anywhere at the moment,” he said.

He began investing personally in metals a few years ago after watching videos from Mike Maloney, creator of the website goldsilver.com. Like other online dealers, the site currently has a notice saying products are back-ordered up to 12 weeks and that there is a $1,000 delivery order minimum.

The title of Mr. Maloney’s latest podcast:“Unaffordium and unobtanium.” (The latter has popped up in the plots of science fiction movies).

To sum up:

A pillar of the mainstream financial media just acknowledged gold’s multi-millennia role as a store of value, quoted someone calling it “money,” and noted that since the world left the gold standard, we “just have to trust” governments to maintain their currencies.

The article quotes the CEO of GoldMoney and GoldSilver’s Mike Maloney, and calls gold “a sensible addition to investment portfolios.”

It mentions the divergence between paper and physical prices and attributes it to the same kind of buying panic that has emptied stores of toilet paper. “When people think they can’t get something, they want it even more.”

Now pretend you’re an editor at a city newspaper or regional magazine and you’ve just finished reading the above article. What do you do? You immediately call in one of your finance reporters and tell them to look into this “gold shortage” thing.

So prepare for millions of anxious people to get their first exposure to the gold story, just as the supply dries up.

 end
Craig Hemke

Craig Hemke: Mints And Refiners Shut Down – But Wait…There’s More!

March 26, 2020

 

 

 

As the Fed prints UNLIMITED currency to buy EVERYTHING from Treasury bonds, Corporate Bonds, ETFs, and key undisclosed corporations, wary investors…

Craig Hemke interviewed by Dunagun Kaiser on Reluctant Preppers

​In the face of officially announced Fed policy to print UNLIMITED currency to buy EVERYTHING from Treasury bonds, Corporate Bonds, ETFs, and key undisclosed corporations, wary investors and savers (anticipating a tsunami of US dollars and zero to negative interest rates debasing their nest-eggs) are scrambling to snap up the dwindling supply of physical gold & silver before the virus-mandated shutdowns and skeleton crews paralyze the supply chain.

Alarming Video Proves Biggest Crash in History Could Be Coming

Sponsored By Banyan Hill Publishing

Former U.S. congressman comes out of retirement to make controversial prediction that the stock market will crash 70%. See his proof and prepare to act fast…. Read More

Making the rush for physical bullion worse, the Canadian Royal Mint, US Mint, and Swiss refiners have shut down as well, claiming safety reasons. On top of that, the COMEX is requesting unprecedented rule changes to allow physical demand for delivery to be met from the London exchange if physical gold bars are not available for delivery on the COMEX.

Craig Hemke, founder of The TFMetals Report, returns to Liberty and Finance / Reluctant Preppers to answer viewer questions and give perspective to the barrage of crisis measures we are facing at this critical time.

 

Man Who Predicted 2020 Gold Rally Issues New Call

Sponsored By Stansberry Research

Gold expert explains why massive shift happening right now in the financial markets could create biggest opportunity in last 100 years.. Read More

 

Attachments area

Preview YouTube video Mints and Refiners Shut Down – BUT WAIT.. THERE’S MORE! | Craig Hemke

Mints and Refiners Shut Down – BUT WAIT.. THERE’S MORE! | Craig Hemke

end

https://www.jsmineset.com/2020/03/30/silver-and-gold-better-be-in-your-wallet/

 

Silver and Gold Better Be In Your Wallet!

Posted March 30th, 2020 at 9:06 AM (CST) by J. Johnson & filed under General Editorial.

 

Great and Wonderful Monday Morning Folks,

 

June Gold is still being held in check after the Sunday night rally sent the noble metal to $1,673.60 with the trade now at $1,644.50 down $9.60 after being dipped to $1,635.70 at the start of London’s time. Silver is leading the decline with the May contract at $14.16 down 37.4 cents after being forced down to $13.945 but only after the price rallied to $14.71. The US Dollar is up 55.8 points at 99.095 and close to the high at 99.165 with the low point at 98.395. Of course, all of this happened already before 5 am pst, the Comex open, the London close, and after everything possible was used, in their wallets, to set price against real “In Hand” value.

 

In Venezuela, Gold gained 18.97 Bolivar with the trade at 16,424.44, yet Silver is losing with the trade at 141.423 showing a loss of 5.243 Bolivar. Argentina’s Peso has Gold valued at 105,852.00 proving a gain of 532.48 over the weekend with Silver losing 30.21 A-Peso’s with the trade at 911.547. The Turkish Lira has Gold trading at 10,781.64, it too showing the first money gaining 189.57 Lira’s yet taking 1.8385 Lira value from the second with Silver’s last trade at 92.8552 T-Lira.

 

April Silver Deliveries will start in earnest on Wednesday with the demand count now at 900 contracts as we wait for the hold outs – to get out – so we can see what numbers will be used to lie the deliveries and with a Volume of 133 up on the board inside a trading range between $14.115 and $13.915 with the last at $14.025. March Silver’s last day of purchasing concluded with a buy total (Volume) of 80, showing the last trade Mr Resolute (what I call the buyers) made as 400,000 ounces swapped hands. Silver’s Overall Open Interest is still dropping and with the noticeable slowing since we are now at the same levels when Silver rallied the last time with the Overall Count losing 434 Overnighters giving the new total of 141,943 Obligations.

 

April Gold’s Open Interest is now at 37,408, showing a much larger issue for the sellers of paper, which is obviously not backed with product, as we have to wait for the end of the month to start the deliveries with this mornings Volume at 5,042 happening inside a trading range between $1,652.80 and $1,613.10 with the last price at $1,617.90. Last Friday’s March close-out actually had no buys in Gold at all! That pending order of 3 stood out all day long with no additions, Spooky! Gold’s Overall Open Interest is now at 528,851 showing a slowing down, yet still removing 1,319 Overnighters.

 

I ran across this story this morning; the CFTC quietly (allows) the bail out of Capital One as the governing bodies, who authorized the EFP’s of Silver and Gold to London without objections, are now allowing banks to float a loss, instead of liquidating, or forcing them to exit a bad trade, and letting those that are far more responsible the lead. “So what exactly happened? According to a spokesman for the CFTC, the commodities regulator issued a waiver to protect the bank and its energy clients from “undue disruption,” given the unprecedented market conditions over the past month amid the coronavirus outbreak.” It’s remarks like these that should be challenged but no one is allowed to. If everyone in Commodities has the same set of rules, and these overleveraged algo controlled companies cannot react by protecting their own assets with their machines, then why is the CFTC allowing Randolph and Mortimer Duke to stay in their trade and get a bailout? To add to this that same spokesperson claimed; “We have actively encouraged all market participants to identify regulatory relief or other assistance that may be needed to help support robust, orderly and liquid markets in the face of this pandemic…” All this time, I thought the governing bodies where here to assure us all, that the rules that are set, are equal and apply to everyone, NOT to assure liquidity. Liquidity has been the word used for, and by, manipulators as more paper is allowed to cover what is left of the physicals.

 

So here we are, with banks getting vouchers instead of clearing losing trades. These are the things we holders of Silver and Gold have been forced to deal with for too long now. In short, we had another Lehman moment that was stopped because a few bad trades would change everything into something out of the controls of Algos. What’s in your Wallet? Has been the subject we’ve been writing and talking about ever since day one. You can’t even find precious metals at these prices anywhere, and we’re to believe a governing body that helped the situation along to where we are right now? Sorry, my wallet doesn’t have the crap they claim is money, I have physicals.

 

So, keep that smile on your face and a positive attitude in the head no matter what. We are at the point of change, and it is up to us to move forward. As Always …

 

Stay Strong!

  1. Johnson

More J. Johnson content is available with purchase of a JSMineset subscription

 

 

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early MONDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 7.0979/ GETTING VERY DANGEROUSLY PAST  7:1

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  7.1130   /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 24.97 POINTS OR 0.90%

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 309.17 POINTS OR 1.32%

 

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 304.46 POINTS OR 1.57%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL RED/

 

 

 

USA dollar index UP TO 98.98/Euro FALLS TO 1.1058

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. –.01/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 107.95/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 20.38 and Brent: 22.79

3f Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE DOWN/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO -.53%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 1.41% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 0.53%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.94: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO : 1.61

3k Gold at $1623.35 silver at: 14.03   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 117/100 in roubles/dollar) 79.92

3m oil into the 20 dollar handle for WTI and 22 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 107.94 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9567 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0577 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to 0.53%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 0.66% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 1.25%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 6.5447..

Futures Rollercoaster As Global Coronacases Approach 1 Million

Global markets started off the new week wobbly, with stocks around the world trying desperately to find firm footing even as the global coronavirus cases rose above 732,000 on Monday morning and are set to hit 1 million by the end of the week.

U.S. stock index futures see-sawed on Monday after a strong recovery last week, swinging between losses and gains after President Trump abruptly abandoned his ambition to return American life to normal by Easter raising fears of a larger economic hit from the slump in business activity. After opening more than 4% lower on Sunday, futures have stince staged a rebound, and were trading slightly above Friday’s close when stocks sold off after the Fed announced it would taper its Unlimited QE from $75BN to $60BN. Abbott Labs was a standout, jumping in early trading after unveiling a five-minute coronavirus test.

Shares in Europe followed earlier declines across much of Asia, though they too staged a comeback and traded mostly unchanged as traders were transfixed by the surge in new cases, which rose by 60,000 overnight to 732,153 (and 34,686 deaths). Total cases are now expected to hit 1 million in 3-4 days.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks fell, led by industrials and IT, after rising in the last session. Most markets in the region were down, with Singapore’s Straits Times Index dropping 4.7% and India’s S&P BSE Sensex Index falling 3.7%. The Topix declined 1.6%, with AP Co and PIA falling the most. The Shanghai Composite Index retreated 0.9%, with Beijing Aritime Intelligent Control and Henan Oriental Silver Star Investment posting the biggest slides.

There were some bright spots, with Australian equities posting a standout surge as the government launched a super-sized support program. Australia’s benchmark ASX200 registered a late surge, closing 7% up after Prime Minister Scott Morrison unveiled a $130 billion ($79.86 billion) package to help to save jobs. 

Japan’s Nikkei had led the rest of Asia lower and Europe’s main markets slumped by 1.5-2.5% in early trade, adding to what has already been the region’s worst quarter since 1987. Stocks dropped even as the Bank of Japan purchased another record 201.6b yen of ETFs Monday as it steps up efforts to calm markets.

“I have been in this business almost 30 years and this is the fastest correction I have seen,” Lombard Odier’s Chief Investment Officer Stephane Monier said of this year’s plunge in global markets.

The big standout in overnight trading was oil, which took another eyewatering 8% tumble on Monday, with some now expecting price to drop to zero (or negative) as storage facilities fill up. The rout in oil took crude to its lowest since 2002. Brent was at only $22 a barrel by 0815 GMT, hammering petro currencies such as Russia’s rouble, Mexico’s peso and the Indonesian rupiah by as much as 2%. Brent futures were down 8%, or $2, at $22.50 a barrel – their lowest for 18 years. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell as far as $19.92, near a 2002 low hit this month.

It didn’t help that the U.S. dollar was back on the climb. The euro and pound were both batted back by about 0.6%, leaving the former near $1.1070 and sterling at $1.2350. On Friday Britain had become the first major economy to have its credit rating cut because of the coronavirus.

JPMorgan now predicts that global GDP could contract at a 10.5% annualized rate in the first half of the year: “We continue to mark down 1H20 global GDP forecasts as our assessment of both the global pandemic’s reach and the damage related to necessary containment policies,” said JPMorgan chief economist Bruce Kasman. As a result, central banks have mounted an all-out effort to bolster activity with rate cuts and massive asset-buying campaigns, which have at least eased liquidity strains in markets.

On Monday, China became the latest to add stimulus, with a cut of 20 basis points to a key repo rate, the largest in nearly five years. Singapore also eased as the city state’s bellwether economy braced for a deep recession while New Zealand’s central bank said it would take corporate debt as collateral for loans.

Rodrigo Catril, a senior FX strategist at NAB, said the main question for markets was whether all the stimulus would be enough to help the global economy withstand the shock: “To answer this question, one needs to know the magnitude of the containment measures and for how long they will be implemented,” he added. “This is the big unknown and it suggests markets are likely to remain volatile until this uncertainty is resolved.”

In rates, bond investors are bracing for a long haul, with European government bond yields dipping and those at the very short end of the U.S. Treasury curve turning negative. 10-year TSYs dropped a steep 26 basis points last week and were last standing at 0.65%. That drop has combined with efforts by the Federal Reserve to pump more U.S. dollars into markets, dragging the currency off recent highs.

Against the yen, the dollar was pinned at 107.74, well off the recent high of 111.71, but its gains against the euro, pound and heavyweight emerging market currencies suggested it was regaining strength.

“Ultimately, we expect the USD will soon reassert itself as one of the strongest currencies,” argued analysts at CBA, noting the dollar’s role as the world’s reserve currency made it a countercyclical hedge for investors. “This means the dollar can rise because of the deteriorating global economic outlook, irrespective of the high likelihood the U.S. is also in recession.”

The dollar’s retreat had provided a fillip for gold, but buying stalled as investors were forced to liquidate profitable positions to cover losses elsewhere. The metal was last at $1,613.6 an ounce, although physical gold was selling for at least 10% higher, and in many places, for much more.  The premium of physical silver over spot is as much as 100%.

“Central banks have been easing (monetary policy) and governments have been offering stimulus packages, but they are only supportive measures, not radical treatments.”

Expected data include pending home sales and Dallas Fed Manufacturing Outlook. RH is reporting earnings

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.4% to 2,533.25
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 1.4% to 306.62
  • MXAP down 0.8% to 136.73
  • MXAPJ down 0.4% to 429.75
  • Nikkei down 1.6% to 19,084.97
  • Topix down 1.6% to 1,435.54
  • Hang Seng Index down 1.3% to 23,175.11
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.9% to 2,747.21
  • Sensex down 3.4% to 28,813.44
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 7% to 5,181.38
  • Kospi down 0.04% to 1,717.12
  • German 10Y yield fell 6.0 bps to -0.534%
  • Euro down 0.6% to $1.1079
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 10.0 bps to 1.157%
  • Brent futures down 8.5% to $22.82/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.4% to $1,621.29
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.5% to 98.80

Top Overnight News

  • Global coronavirus cases climbed above 720,000 and a top scientist suggested U.S. deaths may reach 200,000, while President Donald Trump abandoned his ambition to return American life to normal by Easter
  • European officials warned against loosening lockdowns after the coronavirus outbreak claimed more than 3,000 lives in Spain and Italy over the weekend. Strains in health-care systems increased as Spain said its intensive-care wards are stretched beyond capacity and a German public-health leader said the country may face a ventilator shortage
  • China’s central bank cut the interest rate it charges on loans to banks by the biggest amount since 2015, as the authorities ramp up their response to the worsening economic impact from the coronavirus pandemic.
  • Oil slumped to a 17-year low as coronavirus lockdowns cascaded through the world’s largest economies, leaving the market overwhelmed by cratering demand and a ballooning surplus of crude
  • Australia’s central bank netted about 2.5% of the bond market in its first six days of purchases. Yet, the scale of government fiscal stimulus in the pipeline sees little danger of it following Japan’s path and holding too many securities
  • European lenders including UniCredit SpA, ABN Amro Bank NV and ING Groep NV suspended dividend payments on 2019 earnings, bowing to European Central Bank pressure to retain capital
  • Japan will issue an extra 16t yen in government bonds from July to cover a stimulus package for coronavirus impact, Reuters reports; The Bank of Japan purchased 201.6b yen of ETFs Monday as it steps up efforts to calm markets
  • Just two weeks after South Korea adopted one extra budget, President Moon Jae-in said another is already being planned to help insulate households against the impact of the coronavirus pandemic

Asian equity markets resumed their selling, and US equity futures also began the week on the backfoot (before gradually recouping losses) as coronavirus woes continued to weigh on risk appetite and following last Friday’s declines on Wall St after the US overtook China with the greatest number of coronavirus cases. In addition, President Trump recently announced to extend federal guidelines on coronavirus until April 30th and NIH’s Fauci projected a possible 100k-200k deaths. The risk appetite was dampened across most the regional bourses with losses in Nikkei 225 (-1.6%) exacerbated by the flows into the JPY and with notable weakness seen in Softbank shares after a Co.-backed satellite start-up filed for bankruptcy, while ASX 200 (+7%) bucked the trend on stimulus measures with the government to announce support for employers and employees today. Furthermore, the Australian Banking Association said banks are to permit businesses with up to AUD 10mln in loan facilities to defer repayments up to 6 months which will apply to AUD 100bln of business loans, and regulator APRA announced the deferral of capital reform implementation by 1 year. Hang Seng (-1.3%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.9%) were downbeat despite PBoC efforts in which it injected liquidity through repos for the first time since mid-Feb and lowered the 7-Day Reverse Repo rate by 20bps. Improved earnings including China’s largest banks did little to spur risk appetite amid the broad cautiousness and with press reports suggesting 100mln jobs could be at risk from the coronavirus fallout, while participants also await this week’s upcoming key data including the latest Chinese PMI numbers. Finally, 10yr JGBs were higher and briefly approached the 153.00 level amid the subdued risk appetite and after recent comments by PM Abe who vowed an unprecedented economic package which will include fiscal and monetary stimulus, while prices also tracked T-notes which gapped higher at the open to briefly test resistance at 139.00.

Top Asian News

  • Tokyo Economy Could Face Lockdown From Few Dozen Virus Cases
  • How a $100 Billion South Korean Insurer Became a Penny Stock
  • Fed May Follow Japan and Australia Into Yield-Curve Regime: HSBC
  • Pessimistic Indian Doctors Brace for Tsunami of Virus Cases

A choppy session in the equity space with European futures fully paring its pre-market gains and then some, whilst cash markets move in tandem (Eurostoxx 50 -0.5%). APAC bouses closed the trading day mostly lower, whilst US equity futures reversed earlier upside of almost 1.5% having opened lower by some 1.8%. Stocks in general lack conviction as coronavirus uncertainty feels counterforce (in the short-term at least) from month and quarter-end rebalancing – which models thus far see outflows from Treasuries and inflows into stocks. Back to Europe, major bourses see broad-based losses, whilst in the periphery – Spain’s IBEX (-1.5%) modestly underperforms the region after the county suffered its worst day yet in terms of coronavirus deaths. Subsequently, sectors remain in the red across Europe with defensives faring slightly better than cyclicals at the time of writing. Looking at the breakdown, Travel and Leisure see another session of steep losses, Oil and Gas is also weighed on by price action in respective complexes. However, Banks underperform having been dealt with the prospect of prolonged share buyback and dividend suspensions alongside a lower yield environment. As such, ING (-6.7%) sees itself towards the bottom of the Stoxx 600 after it announced a dividend suspension until at least 1st October, whilst rebuffing FY20 interim payments. Meanwhile, ABN AMRO (-7.4%) is pressured by anticipated Q1 losses, FY and interim dividend postponements. In terms of other movers – Airbus (-7.5%) tackles subdued aircraft demand as airlines ground their fleets, with easyJet (-6.9%) announcing its entire fleet will be non-operational with no timeframe for the resumption of commercial flights. Elsewhere, Hammerson (-18%) rests at the foot of the pan-European index after noting material impacts on 2020 results and withdrawing dividend and guidance. On the flip side, ASML (+2.8%) sees some reprieve after announcing that its supply chain issues have been resolved, albeit the Co. decided to refrain from Q2 share buybacks.

Top European News

  • Giant Oil-Field Boost Is Bad for Market, Good for Norway
  • Euro- Area Confidence Posts Record Drop With Economy in Lockdown
  • German Bonds Extend Gains After State Inflation Data Disappoint
  • Stelios Tells EasyJet Need to Cancel GBP4.5-Billion Airbus Order

In FX, it’s debatable whether the Dollar is benefiting from supportive rebalancing flows for the final trading day of March, the current quarter and the 2019/2020 financial year, or improving chart impulses alongside weakness in rival currencies on specific bearish factors, but suffice to say that the Greenback has pared more of its recent losses. Indeed, the DXY has bounced further from Friday’s low (98.284) towards 99.000 and is currently close to a potentially pivotal technical marker around 98.810 that roughly coincides with a Fib retracement and the 21 DMA. However, jittery risk sentiment and arguably greater demand for the Yen over month/Q1/Japanese half fy end appears to be capping the index.

  • JPY – Bucking the overall G10 trend as noted above, with Usd/Jpy meeting heavy offers above 108.00 from Japanese exporters and various domestic names repatriating funds for tomorrow. The headline pair is now hovering around 107.50 after a knee-jerk spike above the big figure on reports that JGB issuance will be ramped up to fund the fiscal fight against COVID-19, while taking a 4th record equalling amount of BoJ ETF buying in stride.
  • CAD/GBP/CHF/EUR/NZD/AUD – All overwhelmed if not completely consumed by the Buck’s partial recovery, as the Loonie also digests the latest BoC rate cut and venture into the realms of QE, including commercial paper, on top of another downturn in crude prices. Usd/Cad is towards the top of a 1.4097-1.3993 range, while Cable is sub-1.2400 within 1.2467-1.2319 parameters and Eur/Gbp meandering between 0.8988-21 following Fitch’s 1 run UK ratings downgrade and seemingly 2-way flows into March 31. Nevertheless, the Euro is nearer the base of 1.1143-1.1062 extremes against the Dollar as the coronavirus case and fatality totals continue to pile up in Spain and Italy, and the single currency is also lagging vs the Franc (Eur/Chf sub-1.0600) even though Usd/Chf is hugging 0.9550 from just over 0.9500 at one stage in wake of latest Swiss sight deposits implying increased intervention. Elsewhere, the Kiwi is underperforming down under, or in fact the Aussie is outperforming on the back of bigger financial support efforts from the Government overnight that boosted the ASX. Nzd/Usd is only just keeping afloat of 0.6000 in contrast to Aud/Usd pivoting 0.6150 and the Aud/Nzd cross looking more comfortable on the 1.0200 handle after a brief dip below.
  • EM – Broad losses vs the Usd against the backdrop fluctuating/fickle risk asset moves, but with the Rouble undermined by Brent’s retracement as well, while the Rand hit fresh record lows circa 18.0750 following Moody’s SA cut to junk, albeit widely anticipated. Conversely, the Singapore Dollar was not unduly ruffled by limited MAS tweaks to the currency peg as it kept the midpoint and corridor unchanged after trimming the band to zero, and the offshore Yuan is off lows post-PBoC 20 bp repo rate cut.

In commodities, another detrimental session for the crude markets thus far amid further crystallisation of the demand impact from the virus outbreak as global economies come to a standstill, whilst supply-side woes refuse to subside. Over the weekend, Saudi Arabia opposed an emergency meeting that the OPEC President was urging as oil markets continue to tumble. This rejection would mean that the market will have to wait until the scheduled meeting in June for any revision of output policy. Analysts at ING believe that this will be too late to counter the surplus expected over Q2, and as such the Dutch bank has cut its ICE Brent forecasts to USD 20/bbl vs. Pre. USD 33/bbl for Q2 2020. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs stated that oil demand this week is seen lower by 26mln BPD and suggested it is impossible to shut down that level of demand with the absence of large and persistent ramifications to supply. In terms of today’s trade, WTI front-month prices briefly dipped below USD 20/bbl to fresh 17yr lows but meander around the level at the time of writing, meanwhile, its Brent counterpart modestly underperforms with added pressure from OPEC – prices breached USD 23/bbl to the downside. Elsewhere, spot gold remains relatively uneventful on either side of USD 1615/oz ahead of this week’s key risk data releases, and with the macro themes also in the fray. Copper prices meanwhile mimic the choppy action in stock markets – with the red metal having given up its APAC gains during early European trade.

US Event Calendar

  • 10am: Pending Home Sales MoM, est. -2.0%, prior 5.2%
  • 10am: Pending Home Sales NSA YoY, est. 6.0%, prior 6.7%
  • 10:30am: Dallas Fed Manf. Activity, est. -10, prior 1.2

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

I hope you had as good a weekend as is possible in these strange and troubled times. As forewarned last week we erected a 16 foot trampoline over the weekend in what were pretty icy temperatures. If you have nothing better to do in the lockdown and you want to see how we got on via a time lapse video then look at the link on my Bloomberg header. Failing that search for “Trampoline Travails with Twins” in YouTube. As you’ll see at the end the kids and Trudi got rid of a week of self-isolation frustrations.

Talking of which, it does feel like the last week has been one big rush of adrenaline for markets as unparalleled stimulus has swept through the main economies. However while we all talk about “epi curves” it feels like the stimulus curve is now going to start flattening out after the shock and awe of the last couple of weeks. We are instead going to be left with having to deal with a decline in activity that will be as sharp as anything seen since the Great Depression and likely greater in some countries.

Indeed going forward now, the bad news will come from the real time data and earnings reports that could in some cases create existential risks. The good news will come from a run of slower new virus case growth numbers and mortality rates around the world. If investors can get some visibility on when western economies can re-open and what the pace of such re-openings will look like then they are more likely to look through the worst of the upcoming news. The economic/earnings news will be very bad though in many places and not all companies (or their bond and equity holders) will make it through or will see a significant scar. One area we’ve discussed a lot over the last couple of years is the huge fallen angel risk when we do see the next downturn. This risk is now upon us and this morning Nick and Craig in my team have updated the analysis of what has already been downgraded to HY from IG and names that are potentials. Lots of stats and graphs for your perusal. Link to the complete report here.

Back to the virus and the full round up of the very latest on growth of new cases and mortality rates are in the new “Corona Crisis Daily” which has lots of tables and graphs showing the latest evolution of covid-19. This will be out around the same time as this. However in brief, the highlights are that the percentage growth in new cases and mortality are slowing in the Western economies furthest along the “epi curve”. So for this and more on the latest news see our new sister daily.

To Asia now where markets have kicked off the week on the back foot with the Nikkei (-2.96%), Hang Seng (-1.29%), Shanghai Comp (-1.59%) and Kospi (-1.21%) all down. The Nikkei is leading declines as most Japanese stocks are trading ex-dividend. In FX, the US dollar index is up +0.34% while sterling is down -0.72% following Fitch downgrading the UK’s credit rating to AA- from AA with negative outlook on Friday evening. Elsewhere, futures on the S&P 500 are down -0.40% while Brent crude oil prices are down -6.14%.

The moves in China this morning follow the PBoC cutting the 7-day reverse repo rate to 2.2% from 2.4%. That is the biggest cut since 2015 and should set the stage for the MLF rate cut in April. Meanwhile, the Monetary Authority of Singapore also lowered the midpoint of the currency band and reduced the slope to zero, implying that the central bank will allow for a weaker exchange rate to help support export-driven growth and to ward off deflationary threats.

In other overnight news, President Trump said in a press conference that social distancing protocols would remain in place through all of April, stepping back from hopes of opening the economy back up by Easter. He also added that the hoped the country would reach the “the bottom of the hill” by June 1st.

Moving on. As we move into Q2 later this week the highlights will be the final global PMIs on Wednesday (manufacturing) and Friday (services) and the weekly US initial claims on Thursday which will probably be more real time than the payrolls report on Friday. Note that China’s first set of PMIs will come very early tomorrow London time.

For the final PMIs they rarely change too much from the flash numbers but given the fast moving shutdowns in the second half of this month there’s a chance that they will fall even more from what were already record lows across many of the indices. Italy and Spain’s numbers will be interesting given that we didn’t get a flash number and with them being the worst hit European countries by the virus at the moment. Maybe some comfort could come in China’s numbers (from tomorrow) as activity progressively rebooted during the month. A decent bounce is expected which may give some optimism for all those further behind the “epi curve”. For the rest of the week ahead see the day by day diary at the end.

Recapping last week now and markets across the globe rallied as stimulus in Europe and the US caused optimism to return even as Covid-19 cases in Italy and the US climbed above those reported in China by the end of the week. The S&P 500 recorded its best week since 2009, following on from the worst week since around the same time. Last week the index rose +10.26% (-3.37% Friday), but in total the index is still down -24.95% from the all-time highs. European equity markets slightly underperformed their US counterparts, though that follows on from their outperformance the week before. The STOXX 600 rallied +6.09% over the week (-3.26% Friday), for the largest one week gain since December 2011 and breaking a 5 week losing streak. The DAX gained +7.88% (-3.68% Friday), the IBEX +5.19% (-3.63% Friday) and the FTSE MIB +6.16% over the 5 days (-5.25% Friday) as the three most highly infected countries in Europe saw a stimulus fueled rebound even if Friday saw weakness.

Asian equities also joined in the rally, led by the Nikkei. Japanese equities rallied +17.14% (+3.88% Friday), while the Kospi rallied +9.68% (+1.87%) on the week. With S&P 500 daily move remaining elevated, the VIX was mostly unchanged on the week, finishing just -2.9 points lower at 59.1. Even as equites rallied on the week, other risk assets like crude continued to sell off. Brent and WTI crude oil fell -7.60% (-5.35% Friday) and -4.10% (-4.82% Friday) as both types of crude fell for the 5th straight week with the economic slowdown and price war showing limited to no signs of abating. Elsewhere in commodities, Gold had its best week since December 2008 as the typical haven asset rose on delivery issues and due to the huge stimulus being pumped into the system. The Dollar index sold off over the last 4 days of the week after a 10-day rally, as stress in the funding market dissipated somewhat.

Even with risk rallying, sovereign bonds rose on the week possibly because of all the new QE in the system and that likely coming. However most of the rally occurred on Friday when risk-off came back to town. The 10yr U.S. Treasury yields ended the week -17.1 bps lower at 0.675% (-17.0bps Friday). 10yr Bund yields fell -15.3 bps on the week (-11.3bps Friday) to finish at -0.47%. Peripheral debt tightened over the week, even as spreads widened on Friday. French, Italian, and Spanish 10yr bonds all tightened to 10yr Bunds by -2bps, -15bps, and -4bps over the week respectively but note that the Italian spread widened +21 bps on Friday as EU leaders were unable to agree on further fiscal aid the previous evening. Credit spreads had a much better week, especially US IG after the Fed’s corporate bond buying program was unveiled. US HY cash spreads were -110bps tighter on the week (-30bps Friday), while IG was -63bps tighter on the week (-9bps Friday). In Europe, HY cash spreads were -77bps tighter over the 5 days (-5bps tighter Friday), while IG was 9bps wider on the week (-1bp tighter Friday).

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)MONDAY MORNING/ SUNDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 24.97 POINTS OR 0.90%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 209.17 POINTS OR1.32%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 304.46 POINTS OR 1.57%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 6.56%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 7.0979 /Oil UP TO 20.38 dollars per barrel for WTI and 22.79 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.0879 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0979 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY PAST 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 C CHINA

More evidence that China is lying: the number of urns more than doubled the reported coronavirus deaths

(zerohedge)

More Evidence China Is Lying; Number Of Urns More Than Double Reported Coronavirus Deaths

China has been caught lying once again about coronavirus figures  – with the latest evidence coming from ground-zero in Wuhan, where according to official CCP data just 50,006 people were infected with COVID-19, and 2,535 dying of the virus.

Yet, Chinese investigative outlet Caixin revealed that when mortuaries opened back up this week, photos revealed a far greater number of urns than reported deaths. In one, a truck loaded with 2,500 urns can be seen arriving to the Hankou Mortuary. According to the report, the driver said he had delivered the same amount the previous day.

In another photo, seven 500-urn stacks can be seen inside the mortuary, adding up to 3,500 deaths.

This adds up to more than double the amount of reported deaths in the region – for which grieving family members waited in line for as long as five hours to collect, according to Shanghaiist.

Urns are reportedly being distributed at a rate of 500 a day at the mortuary until the Tomb Sweeping Day holiday, which falls on April 4 this year.

Wuhan has seven other mortuaries. If they are all sticking to the same schedule, this adds up to more than 40,000 urns being distributed in the city over the next 10 days.

When reporters at Bloomberg made calls to the funeral homes to check on the number of urns waiting to be collected, the mortuaries said that they either did not have that data or were not authorized to disclose it. –Shanghaiist

Given the constant, provable lies, does anyone believe that China has actually contained COVID-19?

And of course, as former White House press secretary Sean Spicer pointed out implicitly, don’t expect the mainstream media to question anything…

Sean Spicer

@seanspicer

Reminder to all of the journalists that took China at face value when they claimed they had no more cases https://twitter.com/joshrogin/status/1243662199022813184 

Josh Rogin

@joshrogin

Wuhan reported only about 2,500 #coronavirus deaths, but 5,000 urns were delivered to one mortuary over just 2 days. “Wuhan has seven other mortuaries.” http://shanghaiist.com/2020/03/27/urns-in-wuhan-far-exceed-death-toll-raising-more-questions-about-chinas-tally/ @shanghaiist

Besides they all know the truth…(but must resist)

end
Twin shocks for China as after undergoing themselves a supply shock as many citizens were quarantined and could not work, are now suffering a demand shock from the west. This no doubt will bankrupt many Chinese firms
(zerohedge)

China Suffers Economic Double-Whammy As Current Global Demand Collapse Follows Earlier Supply Crash

As the first quarter is about to close, many Chinese factories are still operating below full capacity, have been gradually ramping up production over the last several weeks as government data suggests the country’s pandemic curve has flattened.

But as Bloomberg notes, there is a serious problem developing, one where the virus crisis is locking down the Western Hemisphere, has resulted in firms from Europe and the US to cancel their Chinese orders en masse, triggering the second shockwave that is starting to decimate China’s industrial base.

A manager from Shandong Pangu Industrial Co. told Bloomberg that 60% of their orders go to Europe. In recent weeks, manager Grace Gao warned that European clients are requesting orders to be delayed or canceled because of the virus crisis unfolding across the continent.

 

“It’s a complete, dramatic turnaround,” Gao said, estimating that sales in April to May could plunge by 40% over the prior year. “Last month, it was our customers who chased after us checking if we could still deliver goods as planned. Now it’s become us chasing after them asking if we should still deliver products as they ordered.”

A twin shock has emerged, one where China shuttering most of its industrial base from mid-January through early March, generated a supply shock. Now, as those Chinese firms add capacity, expecting to be met with a surge in demand from Western companies, that is not the case and is resulting in a demand shock

“It is definitely the second shockwave for the Chinese economy,” said Xing Zhaopeng, an economist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group. The pandemic across the world “will affect China manufacturing through two channels: disrupted supply chains and declining external demand.”

With orders canceled, supply chains disrupted, and payments delayed – the road to recovery in China is going to be a bumpy one at best. Overly optimistic analysts who have been touting a V-shape recovery in China, thus the world, in the first half of the year, will likely be wrong, and as we’ve explained several times, the best case is a U-shape or even perhaps an L-shape.

“Manufacturers are seeing many cases where overseas clients regretted their orders or where goods can’t be delivered due to customs closures in other countries,” said Dong Liu, vice president of Fujian Strait Textile Technology Co. in southeastern China. Liu’s factory was on the cusp of resuming full capacity this month until a demand shock severely dented export orders.

Nomura International HK Ltd warned earlier this week that China could be on the verge of “plummeting export growth in the coming months.”

In Keqiao, Shaoxing, a district known for textile manufacturing, many firms are in rough shape after several months of shuttering operations. Have now been greeted with a collapse in demand, thwarting any hope that full capacity can arrive in the coming weeks.

The twin shocks, first being a supply shock, originating from shutdowns in China, then a demand shock, now coming from the Western world, is the evolution of the global economic crash that is unfolding right in front of us. The world is headed for a depression, if not already in one, as central banks are frantically deploying MMT and unleashing helicopter money to save the world.

end
(zerohedge)

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

UK/SATURDAY MORNING

Fitch downgrades the uK credit rating to AA-

Fitch Downgrades UK Credit Rating To AA- After Sterling’s Best Week Since 1985 Plaza Accord

The Pound Sterling soared a stunning 7.1% this week – its greatest weekly gains since 1985 and the beginning of the Plaza Accord – but apparently that strengthening currency was not enough for Fitch who downgraded The United Kingdom’s credit rating to AA-.

The downgrade of the UK’s IDRs reflects the following key rating drivers and their relative weights:

HIGH

The downgrade reflects a significant weakening of the UK’s public finances caused by the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak and a fiscal loosening stance that was instigated before the scale of the crisis became apparent. The downgrade also reflects the deep near-term damage to the UK economy caused by the coronavirus outbreak and the lingering uncertainty regarding the post-Brexit UK-EU trade relationship. The commensurate and necessary policy response to contain the COVID-19 outbreak will result in a sharp rise in general government deficit and debt ratios, leading to an acceleration in the deterioration of public finance metrics over the medium term.

The Negative Outlook reflects our view that reversing the deterioration in the fiscal metrics beyond 2020 will not be a political priority for the UK government. Moreover, uncertainty around the future trade relationship with the EU could constrain the strength of the post-crisis economic recovery.

The coronavirus outbreak has inflicted an unprecedented shock on financial markets and economic activity, with policymakers struggling to avert a longer-lasting downturn. In common with other advanced countries, the UK has shut down parts of its economy to slow the spread of the disease, which will cause a deep contraction centred on 2Q20. On 23 March, Prime Minister Johnson announced more drastic measures to contain the spread of COVID-19, including closure of all non-essential shops and a ban of public gatherings of more than two people.

Under our much-revised baseline forecast that reflects the lockdown measures across the UK, we now estimate that GDP could fall by close to 4% in 2020. In the baseline, we assume that containment measures can be unwound in 2H20, allowing for recovery in sequential growth and the broader economy, leading to a sharp recovery in growth to around 3% in 2021. However, with so much depending on the extent and duration of the coronavirus outbreak, there is material downside risk to these economic forecasts. A plausible downside case, including a second wave of infections and a longer lockdown period, would see an even larger decline in output in 2020 and a weaker recovery in 2021. The strength of the recovery is subject to lingering Brexit uncertainty, as the final shape of any future trade deal with the EU remains unknown and the risk of the transition period ending without a deal persists.

The UK’s public finances were already set to weaken following the stimulus measures announced in the budget on 11 March, and they are now set to deteriorate more rapidly. The government has announced substantive fiscal policy easing to mitigate the impact of the lockdown measures on the economy. There is some uncertainty around the fiscal impact, which will depend on the severity and length of the lockdown and the sustainability of any progress in coronavirus containment. Under our baseline, we estimate that the general government deficit will increase to around 9% in 2021 from 2.1% of GDP in 2019. Within this forecast, we estimate that the Coronavirus Job Retention scheme will cost 1.3% of GDP, assuming that 4.7 million employees will be supported over the three month duration of the scheme. We estimate that the whole COVID-19 response fiscal package will cost 4.4% of GDP in 2020.

For 2021 we do not include any further discretionary fiscal easing but we expect upward pressures on spending to persist. The expected recovery in GDP growth should support a rebound in revenue growth. Under these assumptions, we expect the deficit to narrow in 2021. General government debt will rise to 94% and 98% in 2020 and 2021, respectively, from 84.5% in 2019. Over the medium term, we expect public debt to peak at well above 100% of GDP beyond 2025 assuming a gradual reduction in fiscal deficits and trend GDP growth of 1.6%.

We fully recognise that timely and targeted policies can help reduce the risk of a more sustained loss of economic output. The likelihood that temporary stimulus measures are unwound will reflect policy choices and political developments. However, in our view, given the direction of public finances reflected in the March 2020 budget, it is unlikely that reducing public deficit and debt levels will be a priority for the UK government. Excluding GBP12 billion of COVID-19 related measures, the budget was targeting a rise in the fiscal deficit by GBP30 billion (1.4% of GDP) by 2024-25 and an increase in net debt of GBP125 billion (5.8% of GDP) relative to the pre-budget baseline.

Additionally, Fitch writes that The UK’s IDRs also reflect the following key rating drivers:

The UK’s ratings balance a high income, diversified and advanced economy against high and rising public sector indebtedness. Sterling’s reserve currency status, deep capital market and strong governance indicators support the ratings. The very long average maturity of public debt (15 years) is among the highest of all Fitch-rated sovereigns and mitigates refinancing and interest rate risks. Public debt is exclusively in sterling, so a weaker exchange rate will not lead to deterioration in debt dynamics.

The Bank of England (BoE) has responded swiftly to the health crisis by cutting the base rate by 65bp to 0.1% and restarting quantitative easing with GBP200 billion of asset purchases, which will include gilts and corporate sector bonds. The response also includes a new Term Funding Scheme for SMEs, increased contingent access for banks to liquidity via a new contingent term repo facility in addition to the BoE’s regular sterling market operations; and the COVID-19 Corporate Financing Facility to provide funding to business through the purchase of corporate commercial paper of up to one year maturity. The Financial Policy Committee (FPC) and the Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA) have adopted measures to support credit supply, including the reduction of the countercyclical capital buffer to 0% with immediate effect. This was set at 1% and was due to rise to 2% in December 2020. The cut is expected to support up to GBP190 billion of bank lending for businesses.

In Fitch’s view, the swift and coordinated macroeconomic policy response by the UK Treasury and the Bank of England should limit the second-round effects of the initial shock and should help growth to recover, assuming that the immediate health crisis subsides. In particular, the combined liquidity support measures which include GBP330 billion (15% of UK GDP) of loans and guarantees from the Treasury and the Bank of England are an important component of an effective near-term policy response, providing support to the ratings.

Another component of the budget not related to COVID-19 was the announced increase in investment spending to 3% of national income, which would be its highest level for 65 years. Whether higher investment spending improves UK productivity and medium-term growth prospects would depend on how effectively such measures as large infrastructure projects are targeted. At this stage, we are not assuming any large impact on trend GDP growth from public infrastructure investment.

The uncertainty around the future UK-EU trade relationship and its effect on the UK’s economy and public finances weighs on the rating. Negotiations on a trade deal have started but the two sides’ initial positions appear far apart. While the UK is seeking a deep free trade agreement (FTA) that allows it to diverge from EU rules, the EU’s starting position is to have the UK adopt EU rules as “reference points” and follow the evolution of those rules.

Given the divergent positions, little time available to strike a deal (December 2020) and the outbreak of the COVID-19 crisis that will take priority, other scenarios are possible, including a trade “cliff-edge” with the UK exiting the transition period at end-2020 and reverting to WTO terms, which would be negative for long-term economic growth compared with an FTA. Alternatively, the transition period could be extended, but in our view this would not be straightforward. The government has ruled out any extension to the transition period and legislated for a commitment not to agree to any extension in the Withdrawal Agreement Act. The government is only able to reverse that provision through new legislation.

*  *  *

We suspect the Queen and the sick PM will not be amused…

END

END

SPAIN/SATURDAYDAY//CORONAVIRUS

Spain Reports Deadliest Day On Record, Italy Case Total Passes China’s, Trump Grants Pentagon Power To Call Up Retired Troops: Live Updates

Summary:

  • Global case total tops 600k
  • Japan fast-tracks approval of treatment drug for COVID-19
  • Third UK minister self-quarantines after showing symptoms of virus
  • Italy case total surpasses China
  • Spain reports deadliest day yet
  • UK case total climbs north of 17k
  • Navy hospital ships leave for New York, LA
  • Shinzo Abe promises unprecedented stimulus package
  • Trump gives Pentagon power to call up retired soldiers and reservists
  • Italian centennarian survives battle with COVID-19

*   *   *

Update (1100ET): The Pentagon is taking steps to clarify its powers now that it has the ability to call up reservists and retirees.

  • PENTAGON SAYS IT HAS ACCELERATED THE PROCESS FOR HOW DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE AUTHORIZES THE USE OF NATIONAL GUARD FORCES UNDER TITLE 32

Additionally, Italy has now passed China in total infections, with 86,498 to China’s 81,996. Following several days of back-and-forth criticism with Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, whom President Trump infamously referred to as “that woman” and criticized for not taking the outbreak seriously enough, the president finally granted her request for a disaster declaration, as well as one for Massachusetts, according to White House statements released Saturday.

Finally, some good news out of Italy: A centenarian from northern Italy has reportedly been released from a hospital after a battle with COVID-19 that he managed to survive despite being a high-risk candidate with a weak immune system..

The man, identified only as “Mr. P”, was admitted to the hospital last week and released on Thursday, according to Gloria Lisi, the deputy mayor of the city of Rimini, told the local Italian language press.

*    *   *

Yesterday, the US reached a critical milestone: it became the first country to record more than 100,000 cases of COVID-19, the illness caused by the novel coronavirus.

Though more people were almost certainly infected in China – epidemiologists have estimated that hundreds of thousands were likely infected in Wuhan alone – the surge in America’s testing capacity, something that’s only going to continue to improve thanks to a slate of new rapid-response tests are hitting the market, means the US will almost certainly record the largest number of infected patients going forward.

Already, the global total of confirmed cases surpassed 600,000 overnight, thanks mostly to the US, though Spain and Italy also reported large numbers of new cases and deaths reaffirming that the lockdowns in each of their respective countries are far from over.

A chart produced by the New York Times and published last night sparked a heated debate online as journalists, scientists and other wannabe ‘experts’ weighed in on the possibility that the outbreaks in New York City, Detroit and New Orleans might be more severe than what Italy has seen in Lombardy.

Source: New York Times

Meanwhile, Spain recorded its deadliest day so far, but new infections are slowing after two weeks of lockdown. The Spanish Health Ministry reported 832 new deaths,bringing the country’s death toll to 5,690 as of early Saturday, a 17% jump. The number of confirmed cases climbed to 72,248 from 64,059. Spain now has the second-highest number of deaths, outside of Italy.

In the latest hint at how the outbreak-induced recession will reverberate through secondary and tertiary industries, Airbnb confirmed on Friday that it’s suspending all third-party marketing work in an attempt to save some $800 million, one of several initiatives that it hopes will save the company lots of money during the crisis. As UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his Health Secretary Matt Hancock struggle to continue performing their duties after being diagnosed with COVID-19, Fitch downgraded the UK’s credit rating from AA to AA-, citing the budget impact of the coronavirus pandemic and continued uncertainty over Brexit.

Source: FT

As a third UK cabinet minister, Scottish Secretary Alister Jack, announces plans to quarantine after showing mild symptoms, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe pledged on Saturday to fight the coronavirus outbreak with an economic package of “an unprecedented scale” as Japan reports a sudden resurgence of cases, many of which have been travel-related.

On Saturday, the UK case total climbed to 17,089, while 160 new deaths were confirmed, bringing the UK death total above 1,000, to 1,019.

According to Nikkei Asian Review, Abe said that in addition to pushing through his “boldest-ever” economic stimulus package, his government will deliver speedy approval of the flu drug Aviganas a treatment for those infected with COVID-19.

“We are on the brink,” Abe said at a news conference, referring to the possibility of an explosion of COVID-19 cases in Japan after 63 new infections were confirmed on Saturday in Tokyo, a third-consecutive day where authorities confirmed more than 40 new cases.

Abe also stressed that Japan must be ready for a “long-term battle” to keep COVID-19 from surging out of control and overwhelming health care systems, as it’s beginning to do in Italy and other places, like NYC.

Still, he said “now is not an emergency” and called on citizens to continue taking steps such as avoiding large gatherings to limit infections.

Abe

Regarding the economy, Abe said that his government will formulate a “strong stimulus package of unprecedented scale” to lessen this blow to businesses and individuals brought about by the coronavirus. All of this comes after Tokyo’s governor warned about the prospect for an “unprecedented” outbreak if nothing is done.

In addition to boosting spending on medical infrastructure and other necessities, Abe said a special measure will be established to allow for the deferral for up to one year of tax and social insurance premium payments to support corporations suffering from constricted cash flow. Also, interest-free and unsecured lending will be expanded to assist them, he said. All of this should trickle down to deferred tax payments for individuals as well.

Meanwhile, the New York Post has been keeping careful track of how many New Yorkers have been dying from COVID-19, and on Saturday, the paper determined that for the past two days, New Yorkers have been dying at a rate of “one every 17 minutes”. That’s up from one an hour nearly a week ago.

On both Thursday and Friday, another 84 people died in the city from the coronavirus, as the number of positive cases and of those who are critically ill also climbed. Total citywide coronavirus cases rose to 26,697, a 4.4% increase from the 25,573 reported Friday morning.

Over in Asia, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, and Hong Kong have recorded unnerving bursts of new cases over the past couple of weeks, but these ‘aftershock’ outbreaks appear to have quieted down in South Korea, while more cases have been confirmed in Singapore, Hong Kong and Tokyo.

Meanwhile, In Seoul, authorities marked a new milestone in the fight against the virus as, for the first time since the start of the outbreak, the number of coronavirus patients being discharged has outnumbered those currently undergoing treatment. Some 4,811 South Koreans have recovered from the virus as of Saturday, while 4,500 patients still remain in isolation and are undergoing treatment.

In the US, Trump signed the CARES Act into law last night, approving direct payments of $1,200 to millions of Americans, including those earning up to $75,000, and an additional $500 per child. It will substantially expand jobless aid, providing an additional 13 weeks and a four-month enhancement of benefits, and for the first time will extend the payments to freelancers and gig workers, an extraordinary step that will go a long way toward quelling the concerns of all those freelance writers who live off handouts from their parents and the occasional paycheck in Brooklyn.

However, across the US, experts are pointing at Abe and Japan as examples of what might happen if the entire country starts going back to normal before the outbreak is truly under control.

As Navy hospital ships head to New York and the West Coast, President Trump on Friday night gave Defense Secretary Mark Esper the power to call up national guardsmen and army medics to serve in the effort to combat the virus. The president said Friday night that the decision will “allow us to mobilize medical, disaster and emergency response personnel to help wage our battle against the virus by activating thousands of experienced service members including retirees.”

The ships will travel to New York and Los Angeles.

wdsu

@wdsu

WHAT A BEAUTY: The USNS Mercy, one of the ‘s two hospital ships, will begin taking patients from pierside in Los Angeles to relieve overburdened medical facilities in the city as it struggles to handle the coronavirus outbreak. https://bit.ly/2yhBx4h

Embedded video

The order will affect reservists and “certain Individual Ready Reserve” members, chief Pentagon spokesman Jonathan Rath Hoffman said in a statement released just after midnight on Saturday morning. The Individual Ready Reserve comprises former active-duty and reserve service members who are commonly considered ‘out of the military’ and thus rarely recalled.

It almost sounds like the start of an action movie: somewhere, in the remote mountain west, a former ace army medic is hearing the sound of tires crunching gravel in his driveway…

After President Trump’s approval rating jumped to record highs in the wake of the crisis, some early poll results from this past week suggest that Trump’s insistence that the US get back to work “by Easter” has dented confidence in his handling of the crisis.

Per WaPo, Trump didn’t clarify whether anyone will be involuntarily recalled to duty, but said some retirees have “offered to support the nation in this extraordinary time of need.”

A Pentagon spokesman told WaPo that the order was still being reviewed, and that generally, these members will be persons in Headquarters units and persons with high demand medical capabilities whose call-up would not adversely affect their civilian communities.

“It’s really an incredible thing to see,” Trump said. “It’s beautiful.”

Though we suspect that, like his decision to invoke the Defense Production Act, though he finally did invoke it to try and boss around GM.

END
ITALY//Coronavirus SATURDAY
Italy is still a disaster zone with respect to the coronavirus
(McCardle/NationalReview.om)

Fauci: Italy “Hit Very Badly” By COVID-19 Due To Prevalence Of Chinese Tourists

Authored by Mairead McArdle via NationalReview.com,

Dr. Anthony Fauci, chief medical advisor to the Trump administration’s coronavirus task force, said Thursday that Italy has been impacted particularly badly by the coronavirus pandemic because the country hosted a high number of Chinese tourists in recent months.

“When you look at the different patterns of what happened in different countries, China versus South Korea versus what we’re seeing in northern Italy, it really gives you some interesting insight into certain things, not only in the explosive nature in certain places versus others, but as you get to your peak, how do you know when you’re turning the corner,” Fauci said on CNN.

“It’s when the new infections each day start to level off to be the same and then start going down, then you see the curve go down,” Fauci said, adding that Italy is “not there yet.”

Italy has reported another 6k new cases today, bringing the national total to 86,498 from 80,539.

Again, it looks like the pace of new deaths is unequivocally beginning to accelerate once again.

“Italy got hit very badly because they had a large number of importations from China by Chinese tourists,” Fauci said.

Before they even knew what was going on, there was enough baseline people spreading that it essentially got out of hand, and it became difficult for them, as good as they are, and they’re very good, to be able to contain it in a way that is contact-tracing. It was more mitigation,” the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases continued.

Fauci also noted that the outbreak of the virus in Washington state differs from the outbreak in New York City, which is “getting hit terribly hard.”

“We’re a big country, and there are different patterns,” he explained.

Washington state’s outbreak involved the coronavirus spreading in several elder care homes, while New York City is a travel hub that experiences an “influx of travelers,” Fauci said.

New York City reported 100 new deaths from the coronavirus on Thursday, bringing the death toll to 385 as the number of infections topped 37,200.

END

UK

the entire British housing market is frozen as we will now experience a wave of delayed mortgage payments. As we highlighted last week, the government ground to a halt all new mortgages and no home can be sold and no new homes can be marketed

a real mess.

(zerohedge)

Britain’s Housing Market Freezes As Wave Of Delayed Mortgage Payments Looms

One of the more unorthodox measures implemented by No. 10 Downing Street when it placed the entire UK on lockdown earlier this week was a virtual freeze of the country’s housing market. For nearly a week now, the housing market across the country has ground to a halt as agents have been prohibited from marketing new homes.

And on Thursday, the government took things a step further, and banned visitors from viewing properties while the “stay-at-home” measures are still in force.

The edict affects all transactions, blocking all transfers of title until further notice, while also banning evictions, it’s basically forcing the entire county to stay put in whatever housing situation they have been living in. For those who don’t have permanent housing arrangements, it’s presumably been a struggle. But that’s a relatively small slice of the population.

This is about all prospective homebuyers in the UK can do right now:

“You can speak to estate agents over the phone and they will be able to give you general advice about the local property market and handle certain matters remotely but they will not be able to start actively marketing your home in the usual manner,” the government said on Thursday night.

A number of banks and specialist lenders have already withdrawn new mortgages to “focus on existing customers”, even as demand for loans is expected to soar. The decision was meant to reduce stress on call centers as most places are expected to be low on staff in the coming weeks.

Lloyds and Barclays have already withdrew most of their mortgage offers, and are expected to cut off all loans currently in the process of being made unless the borrower can put down 40%.

Barclays told brokers it would no longer offer mortgages for customers who did not have a deposit of at least 40%, but it would continue with some remortgaging deals.

With so much uncertainty and such extreme fluctuations in interest rates and credit markets, banks are hoping to put things on pause until things have calmed down a bit.

Bankers told the FT that the withdrawal of mortgage products wasn’t a signal that they were running short of financing, as happened in 2008 when funding markets froze.

But with so many borrowers warning lenders to expect delays on their mortgage payments until the federal stimulus checks have been issued, issuing new mortgages right now would almost be stupid. To continue lending money at a time when reliable borrowers are already having trouble doesn’t seem to make sense, which is one problem that the government is going to need to solve with this bailout,

END
SPAIN/THE GLOBE//CORONAVIRUS UPDATE/MONDAY

Spain’s COVID-19 Case Total Passes China’s, South Korea Reports Disturbing Rebound In New Cases: Live Updates

Summary:

  • Dr. Fauci says 100k-200k Americans may die from COVID-19
  • Trump extends guidelines to April 30
  • Spain case total passes China
  • South Korea reports worrying rebound in cases around Seoul
  • Russia expands Moscow lockdown throughout country
  • NYC remains undisputed center of US outbreak
  • Seattle area reports optimistic slowdown in new cases, deaths
  • New York surpasses 1k deaths
  • Indian migrant workers ‘washed’ with disinfectant
  • Netanyahu goes on quarantine
  • Trump: US has enough medical equipment & ventilators to deal with peak of virus outbreak
  • Spike in cases should arrive around Easter, Trump said, deaths expected to be “very low”
  • JNJ announces encouraging progress on vaccine
  • Chinese press publishes photo of Xi standing in public without mask
  • Australia launches worker subsidy program
  • Amazon workers planning strike

*   *   *

Update (0825ET): Before Trump insisted he would “rely on experts” to determine the end of the quarantine and that the worst thing to do would be to “declare victory” over “the invisible enemy” and have it not be true, the president took a few minutes to slam the national press. “I’ve spent three years trying to figure out who is more dishonest the New York Times or the Washington Post,” Trump said. “When I figure it out I’ll call you and we’ll have a special.”

Update (0817ET): During President Trump’s interview Monday morning on Fox News, Trump insisted that the number of deaths would be “a very low number,” even as Joe Biden interjected, saying “I am issuing this challenge to Donald Trump…He must use the Defense Production Act within the next 48 hours … He may think the risk is having too many. That would be a wonderful problem to have. The risk is having too few.”

Trump meanwhile insisted that New York “should have more than enough” ventilators, seeming to settle the federal position on whether the states have enough ventilators “after this is over they’ll be selling ventilators for $1 a piece…we’ll have a lot of them.”

Workers at an Amazon “fulfillment center” in New York are planning to go on strike Monday morning in a gesture of contempt toward Jeff Bezos, as they accuse the company of not doing enough to stop the virus…so much for hoping Amazon would save us.

Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli PM, said he would be quarantining for a few weeks after coming into contact with somebody who tested positive for the virus.

*   *   *

Hours after Dr. Anthony Fauci appeared on CNN’s “State of the Union” yesterday and declared that the current modeling projects between 100k and 200k deaths in the US alone, President Trump stood up at last night’s Rose Garden press conference and declared that the White House would extend its current guidelines – which call for Americans to avoid gatherings of 10 or more, along with a host of other commandments intended to help “flatten the curve” – through the end of April.

Trump added that the “peak” in new cases & deaths should arrive in two weeks, but by June 1, everything should be fine. This, as New York City hospitals have been transformed into “war zones”, while the number of confirmed cases globally closes in on 1 million. Mayors are cracking down, giving police the authority to hand out fines to anybody who isn’t obeying the terms of the crackdown.

The biggest headline overnight: Spain has surpassed China in the total number of confirmed coronavirus infections (joining Italy and the US) as the number of cases rose from 78,797 on Sunday to 85,195 on Monday, with Spain’s death toll rose by 812 to 7,340, according to the Spanish Health Ministry.

Spanish authorities reported more than 6,000 new cases within 24 hours again on Monday. Among those testing positive: Fernando Simon, the leader of the country’s coronavirus task force.

In the US, New York City remains the undisputed epicenter of the national outbreak as the number of new cases out of the Seattle area has noticeably declined. An area that produced 37 of the first 50 fatalities in the US has seen deaths drop off markedly, while hospitals have been mercifully underwhelmed. While each infected person was spreading the virus to an average of 2.7 other people earlier in March, that number appears to have dropped, with one projection suggesting that it was now down to 1.4, according to the New York Times.

That’s largely thanks to strict measures implemented early on by Washington Gov. Jay Inslee. While NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio was still encouraging New Yorkers to go out and have a good time in late February, Inslee was barring gatherings of more than 250 people and cautioning Washingtonians to stay home and be careful.

New York, meanwhile, surpassed 1k deaths from COVID-19 over the weekend.

As of Monday morning, the US had reported 143,055 cases, according to Johns Hopkins, roughly 1 in 5 global cases (the global case total was 732,000). Projections claim that the global case total should surpass 1 million by the end of the week.

As Tokyo health officials recorded another surprising jump in mostly travel-related cases as of Monday, officials in South Korea warned that they were recording a “sustained increase” in new cases, suggesting new clusters forming around Seoul. Meanwhile, EasyJet, one of Europe’s largest airlines, said it would ground its entire fleet as demand for personal travel collapses.

Across India, migrant workers have struggled with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s sudden lockdown, which left millions of Indians with only hours to prepare. The PM apologized yesterday, and now, news organizations are reporting on some of the draconian steps that local governments are taking to “disinfect” poor migrant workers returning home.

Kanwardeep singh@KanwardeepsTOI

Who r u trying to kill, Corona or humans? Migrant labourers and their families were forced to take bath in chemical solution upon their entry in Bareilly. @Uppolice@bareillytraffic @Benarasiyaa @shaileshNBT

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Back in Europe, the border closures across the Schengen Area have shuttered borders that haven’t been closed since the fall of the Soviet Union. Here’s a guide produced by a non-profit in the region, which recently noted how many Europeans are now meeting loved ones at borders to share a kiss or a quick hello.

Frontex

@Frontex

Our analysts have come up with a very useful map to track the temporary restrictions put in place throughout the EU, Schengen Area and the UK to deal with

View image on Twitter

As the Russian capital commenced a mandatory self-isolation regime Monday, Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin called on regional governors to extend the system across the country to control the coronavirus.

Now that world leaders expect the virus to last for most of the year, Australia’s government planned to subsidize the wages of private-sector employees for up to six months to help businesses and workers struggling with the impact of the coronavirus shutdown: “We will pay employers to pay their employees,” said Prime Minister Scott Morrison as he announced what he dubbed a “job keeper” program. “Our government has made a decision today…that no government has made before in Australia,” according to the Washington Post.

The program is part of an $80 billion package.

In Spain, the number of new cases has surpassed China’s “official” total in the number of confirmed coronavirus infections, as the number of cases rose from 78,797 on Sunday to 85,195 on Monday. The death toll rose by 812 to 7,340.

The Chinese press on Sunday published a photo of President Xi standing out in public without a facemask, a notable development as China continues to report no or almost zero new home-grown cases of COVID-19.

Global Times

@globaltimesnews

In a photo released by Xinhua on Sun, President was seen, for the first time, inspecting a public place without a face mask since the onset of the outbreak. He was seen adhering to health protocols by maintaining a distance from others on a dock.

View image on Twitter

JNJ meanwhile reported Monday that it has produced a “lead vaccine candidate” in its trials for a COVID-19 vaccine. While it’s certainly a reassuring headline (and CNBC has given it no shortage of attention this morning), it won’t move up the timeframe for an expected vaccine.

Finally, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said Monday that a new bank lending program passed as part of the $2 trillion stimulus bill late last week will be ready by Friday, and he encouraged every business to apply because the loans will be “forgivable” for companies that hire back workers and retain them.

END

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

 

6.Global Issues

Abbott unveils a gamechanger: a portable test that can detect a virus in under 5 minutes

(zerohedge)

Abbott Labs Unveils COVID-19 “Gamechanger”: Portable Test Can Detect Virus In Under 5 Minutes

One week after the FDA granted emergency approval to a point-of-care test purporting to produce results in under 45 minutes, the agency has granted “emergency use authorization” to Abbott Labs so the company can bring to market a rapid-response test for COVID-19 that can tell if somebody is infected in under five minutes, and is portable enough to be used in practically any health-care setting.

The medical-device maker plans to supply 50,000 tests a day beginning April 1, said John Frels, vice president of research and development at Abbott Diagnostics. The molecular test scans samples for fragments of the coronavirus genome, which can quickly be detected when present at high levels. An even more thorough search to definitively rule out an infection can take up to 13 minutes, BBG reports.

However, the FDA has only authorized the test for use in “authorized laboratories and patient care settings”, mostly hospitals and approved public and private labs that are already running tests.

The company described the test as a “gamechanger.”

“This is really going to provide a tremendous opportunity for front-line caregivers, those having to diagnose a lot of infections, to close the gap with our testing,” Frels said. “A clinic will be able to turn that result around quickly, while the patient is waiting.”

Here’s how the test works, according to Bloomberg:

The technology builds on Illinois-based Abbott’s ID Now platform, the most common point-of-care test currently available in the U.S., with more than 18,000 units spread across the country. It is widely used to detect influenza, strep throat and respiratory syncytial virus, a common bug that causes cold-like symptoms.

The test starts with taking a swab from the nose or the back of the throat, then mixing it with a chemical solution that breaks open the virus and releases its RNA. The mixture is inserted into an ID Now system, a small box weighing just under 7 pounds that has the technology to identify and amplify select sequences of the coronavirus genome and ignore contamination from other viruses.

The equipment can be set up almost anywhere, but the company is working with its customers and the Trump administration to ensure the first cartridges used to perform the tests are sent to where they are most needed. They are targeting hospital emergency rooms, urgent-care clinics and doctors’ offices.

Last week, Abbott’s m2000 RealTime system got U.S. Food and Drug Administration approval for use in hospitals and molecular laboratories to diagnose the infection. That system can churn through more tests on a daily basis, up to 1 million a week, but it takes longer to get the results. Abbott plans to provide at least 5 million tests a month between the two systems.Other companies are also rolling out faster testing systems as “point-of-care” becomes the critical buzzwords – tests that can be marshaled to test patients at bedsides in ad-hoc treatment environments like the Javits Center.

 

Henry Schein Inc. on Thursday said its point-of-care antibody test, which looks for evidence that a person’s immune system has already fought off the infection, was available. The blood test can be given at the point of care and delivers results in about 15 minutes, though it can’t be used to definitively diagnose a current infection.

The breakthrough comes as the left bashes President Trump for falsely claiming that the US has conducted more tests for COVIDd-19 than any other nation, when South Korea, Italy and China have all run far more tests per capita.

END

Simply awful:  4 passengers die aboard the Carnival Cruise ship, the Zaandam, moored at Panama and refused entry.  The company is begging for a bailout.

(zero hedge)

4 Passengers Die Aboard Carnival Cruise Ship Stranded Near Panama As Company Begs For Bailout Cash

As cruise lines bitch about potentially being excluded from the US government bailouts passed as part of the US CARES act, one cruise ship owned by a Dutch company has reported some of the worst news we’ve heard aboard a cruise ship since the Diamond Princess departed Yokohama.

On Friday, Holland America Line announced that four passengers had died aboard its cruise ship, the Zaandam, after it was refused entry into Chile nearly two weeks ago.

The ship, which had 53 passengers and 85 crew members aboard displaying symptoms, was denied passage through the Panama Canal to allow easy access to Florida.

The company, which, of course, is owned by cruise industry conglomerate Carnival Corp., didn’t say how many passengers and crew were tested, but said 53 passengers and 85 crew members are exhibiting symptoms consistent with the coronavirus. There are more than 1,800 people aboard the ship, the company said, along with four doctors and four nurses.

 

The Zaandam, which is currently anchored off the coast of Panama, is at least the third Carnival-owned ship to become the host of a COVID-19 outbreak. The Grand Princess, which made headlines after being barred entry to San Francisco, and the Diamond Princess, which required countries to evacuate passengers, including the US, are both run by Carnival-owned Princess cruises.

What’s more galling, though, is that the Zaandam still departed on the cruise from Buenos Aires on March 7 after the panic about COVID-19 had already started. The ship was at sea when Carnival suspended all operations later in the month. And the cruise was supposed to end March 21, but the ship was refused permission to dock in Chile, and it’s now anchored off the coast of Panama, as authorities refuse to let it pass through the Panama Canal.

The ship is telling the press it plans to disembark passengers in Florida, but exactly how it’s going to get there remains unclear.

Another Holland America ship, the “Rotterdam,” met the Zaandam at sea on Thursday, the company said, before adding that it plans to transfer healthy patients from one ship to the other before they are exposed to COVID-19. All passengers and crew currently exhibiting symptoms will remain on the Zaandam. The company said it is following guidance from the CDC.

In other words, everyone who has COVID-19 symptoms aboard that ship is screwed. They will be left twisting in the wind until the virus consumes virtually everybody on board. No one will take them in, at this point they don’t have the resources to sail around the tip of South America. Rumor has it that the State Department is planning another evacuation. That’s the last hope for the more than 100 people who are being virtually abandoned on board that boat.

 

Cruise Lines have been criticized for their poor handling of the crisis. Former passengers of the Costa Luminosa have died after the company and captain of the ship did little to protect passengers. As the Miami Herald reported in partnership with ProPublica, the cruise lines that are now begging for bailouts did little or nothing to shield passengers once news of the outbreak became public. Once the ship made a stop, in Puerto Rico, passengers said the cruise officials didn’t let them know about the sick people on board until they were out at sea again the next day.

“If the ship had told everyone what was going on, my dad and stepmom would have gotten off in Puerto Rico and flown home,” said Kevin Sheehan, Tom’s son. “But they didn’t tell them. So they stayed on the ship.”

Because he stayed on the ship, Tom Sheehan died at sea, away from his family, as COVID-19 shut down all of his organ systems one by one.

The ship couldn’t make its planned next stop in Antigua, so it continued across the Atlantic for a full week with no stops. Passengers were allowed unfettered access to the pools, gym and buffet the entire time, even after news broke at the end of the week about the test results – and the people still used them! They assumed it was safe since the company wasn’t saying anything.

end

Bill Blain on what really to expect:  April is going to hurt;

(zerohedge)

Blain: “Don’t Be Fooled… April Is Going To Hurt”

Authored by Bill Blain via MorningPorridge.com,

“Damn, he was good. Came out of nowhere. Hit us with a full broadside, cut across our tail and took out our rudder. Damn fine gunnery.”

According to the press, China is experiencing normal traffic jams, while the major threat is reinfection from the West, so borders are locked shut. They are anticipating business as usual. They are in for a shock. 

JP Morgan are on the wires saying markets have made their lows, and although it will be volatile, its time to “average into oversold markets.”

In my opinion… they are fools.

I suspect this is going to be a very very bad week for markets.

April is going to hurt. Last week’s rumbustious rally on the back of kitchen sink government fiscal promises, QE infinity and “the boys will be home by Chistmas” market optimisim, is going to be crushed. The flow is about to get much worse, in a trifecta of economic, business and virus news.

We are about to learn a sharp brutal lesson about expectations versus reality:

  • There is no swift end in sight. The UK has been warned to expect months of distancing. Trump isn’t reopening the economy for Easter – he’s closing America down till May.
  • Oil prices have crashed below $20.
  • Rising economic damage, business failures, and confirmation of massive unemployment – especially in US – will come to fore in this week’s data and numbers through the month. Government support packages will take months to become established – months the
  • markets don’t have.
  • Aside from a few ultra-high Investment grade cash-rich corporates, there is a massive industrial scramble for cash underway. Anyone able to raise cash should lift any offer – before a slew of downgrades and defaults closes credit markets completely.
  • Emerging Market economies were pummelled by dollar strength, are now about to be devasted by the global virus demand shock, and as virus countermeasures hits already unstable nations could well plunge into chaos.
  • Market chartists will tell you optimistic bear rallies are a standard part of every market crash – and the bottom will be retested a number of times.
  • There is still pain to come. There are a large number of investors – both institutional want-to-be’s (like JP Morgan) who buy the stimulus and are thinking there are easy returns to be made after such a large “correction”, and retail buyers who are fearful their retirement savings have been shattered who are willing to shake the dice. They can’t quite believe what’s happened, don’t compute the scale of the economic shock, and won’t face up to a changed world till they take more pain.

If any of these are positive reasons to sustain last week’s rally, feel free to explain in the comments section of the Morning Porridge below. 

A number of good analysts suggest the chances of a swift recovery are better than the bleak headlines suggest. They quote issues like obvious market opportunities will swiftly attract smart money – which is true, and the natural resilience of capitalist economies in the face of economic catastrophe – which was once true.

I hope they are right, but I wonder about human economic behaviour – which tends not to have read Rational Expectations economic text-books. What tends to happen is at the individual agent level, where they seek to maximise personal gain by arbitraging distortions like government bailouts and free money in unexpected ways.

Not every entrepreneur will use a government guaranteed loan to tide over their business – some may use them to wreck the competition, enrich themselves, invest in risk, or act in a thousand other ways. Market distortions and interventions have unintended consequences which ultimately prove negative – a lesson governements and central banks have been trying to ignore for the last decade of monetary distortion and experimentation.

(If you don’t believe me, explain why thousands of corporates spent the last decade buying back their stock instead of investing in new productive capacity and new product innovation?)

Get ready for a long-haul of increasingly dire economic news. A month – at least – of Lockdown helplessness, as corporates and individuals scramble for cash, struggle to obtain funds and face unmeetable demands for rent, mortgages, and to pay off debts. It’s going to be brutal.

Is there any good news? 

Perhaps in the virus itself – but this isn’t about the Wuhan flu. It’s about the economy. In the absence of real data in many countries due to the lack of testing, we’re forced to make guesses. But the trends are showing infections rise (as testing kicks in) and a falling mortality percentage. The pace of mortality deaths is declining – as was expected to happen as lockdowns lower the R transmission rate and the all-important “critical cases in hospital” curves. We will find out how successful its’ been in coming days.

On the other hand, the first obituaries of coronavirus victims are appearing; including a number of fit, middle aged men, demonstrating the random nature in terms of victims and symptoms.

To tell a story: after struggling with the disease for over a week, a fit chap in his late fifties I know in London ended up in Hospital, (and fortunately got better quickly once given oxygen and sent home). Meanwhile his partner and her daughter are showing zero symptoms and feel absolutely fine (although badly traumatised by his illness), despite all being cooped up together in a London flat.

The virus storm will likely escalate across North-West Europe and the US this week, while plateaus across Italy and Spain are expected. Will Europe reopen as quickly as China – unlikely because there has been less testing, less source tracing and very little real information to base decisions upon.

Don’t be fooled – as markets were last week – that there is an easy and quick answer to this crisis. However, there are definitely investment opportunities out there. The trick is grabbing them and holding on through the coming storm..

end

Michael Every..

Rabobank: “Policy Awe Is Behind Us While Sheer Economic Shock Is About To Overwhelm Markets”

Submitted by Michael Every of Rabobank

Awe & Shock; Questions & Quislings

Last week was about policy-makers keeping us in awe. Central banks have done what central banks do – slash rates and pump in liquidity (the latest being the Bank of Canada taking rates to 0.25%, joining the zero-lower-bound-and-let’s-do-QE gang). Governments have done what they had long decided not to do – ramp up spending and pump in liquidity (the latest being Australia now offering to pay 80% of salaries for those laid off too). None of this should be a surprise. As we published recently, and as many others in the market are echoing, this is being treated as a war on the home front: and wars on the home front mean zero rates, yield curve control, and fiscal deficits from 15 to 20% of GDP. Markets have, of course, tried to rally on that front. It’s even been seen as patriotic in some cases.

However, here comes the shock that has required all that awe. Last week US President Trump was talking about reopening the economy around Easter: now lockdown is extended through to 30 April. Moreover, Dr Fauci, the leading medical expert on the White House team, has stated he expects to see millions of infections and 100,000 – 200,000 US deaths. Even Trump has said 100,000 deaths would be a “very good job”. To put that in context, were we to exceed that total by just a little it would mean more civilian deaths than the US suffered in combat in WW1, Vietnam, and Korea combined. In other words, a major shock.

In the UK, the Deputy Chief Medical Officer briefed that the current lockdown could be extended for six months, and perhaps even longer – and at the minimum Britain seems to face three months under the present new normal. Much of 2020 is going to be under virus controls of some kind. Again, a major economic shock.

In China, which has apparently turned the corner vis-à-vis the virus, we have the Western media openly questioning the official figures for deaths in Wuhan; stories underlining that while people are getting back to work, exporters have nobody to produce for; a wave of consumer debt defaults seems inevitable; and, in a don’t-listen-to-what-they-say-but-watch-what-they-do way, Beijing ordered all of the country’s cinemas closed again just days after reopening them to great fanfare. Looks like a major after-shock – and in response China is already talking about more awesome fiscal stimulus in response. Let’s see how that is compatible with economic rebalancing, deleveraging, and balance of payments and currency stability.

So to Questions & Quislings (which, in a lighter moment in these dark times, sounds like an unpopular niche 1970’s role-playing game.)

Question: How bad is this going to get economically? Worse than central bank and government largesse can overcome? Is it now insolvency not illiquidity we risk? After all, US Q2 GDP is openly being discussed as falling as much as -50% q/q annualised by ne ex-Fed official; UK Q2 GDP is seen -15% y/y by the Centre for Economics and Business Research; and nobody else is looking much better.

Question: so what do we do about it? Which leads us to Quislings.

To try to relax this weekend I made the decision to listen to UK talk radio for a ‘taste of home’. One particular host was insistent that the economic shock we are experiencing was so severe that a cost-benefit analysis needed to be done immediately – and a return to work was almost certainly the best overall outcome in his mind even if he would not say so directly. In support of his position, he interviewed Professor Philip Thomas from Bristol University, whose work involves the kind of grim trade-offs highlighted in ‘Fight Club’, where car firms look at the cost of improving vehicle passenger safety features over paying out insurance claims to those who are injured or die. Thomas argued that the virus, if unchecked, might kill over a million people in the UK, and 400,000 in middle age. This was economically unacceptable, of course. However, based on his modelling (in turn based on a simple regression analysis of GDP per capita and life expectancy), if UK GDP were to fall more than 6.4% y/y then the country would see more deaths due to poverty and depression than the virus would imply, and so it would arguably be better off opening up its economy again regardless of the virus.

A philosopher(!) immediately called in to respond and pointed out what I did in an email they didn’t opt to rad: that this is an entirely false exercise in that is assumes: (1) the virus would not destroy the economy anyway even if no lockdown were in place (i.e., voluntary lockdowns); and (2) that the government cannot shift economic policy to mitigate the decline in GDP per capita under lockdown. To which the host seemed outraged: “So we have to rip up the economics textbooks?! Really?!”

Then an experienced ex-Bank of England economist called in. He supported the philosopher’s stance, and noted that the paper from Thomas had not been peer reviewed and was published in a minor non-economics journal. In his view, it belonged in the wastepaper basket. The host’s response, in so many words: “You are being too emotional saying that. Bye!”

So what’s the takeaway, apart from the obvious fact that intellectuals can be idiots and I was one for listening to talk radio? That policy awe is behind us while sheer economic shock is about to overwhelm markets ahead; and we will require even greater policy responses.

Markets are far less likely to enjoy them, however. Wars aren’t just about pump-priming. We also see regulation and excess profit taxes rather than headlines lionizing hedge funds for making USD2.6bn in profits. (That said, some of the people running this war seem like the kind of blokes who in WW2 always had black-market chocolate and nylons for sale…)

Yet for now markets need to grapple with what is going to be cheap and what is going to be expensive. Do we face deflation as the economy implodes? Oil sub USD20 per barrel says yes. Do we face inflation as supply shocks hit home? Stories suggesting countries are hoarding food and that food production could be hit by the virus also say yes.

And, looking ahead to when we win the war, which we will one day, what does the economic and financial world look like when debt to GDP will be 20-30ppts higher at least, behaviour will have changed, SMEs may have been savaged, globalisation undermined, and the government will have many large fingers in many pies? Which asset class, if any, looks a winner on that basis? Short of USD, answers are short on the ground.

So time for a quick game of Questions & Quislings!

7. OIL ISSUES

The Unthinkable Is Happening: Oil Storage Space Is About To Run Out

In the past three weeks, oil plunged and has continued to plunge even more in the aftermath of the oil price war declared between Saudi Arabia and Russia, and where US shale (and its junk bonds) has been caught in the crossfire. However, as we reported last week, we may get to the absurd point when the price of a barrel of oil not only hits $0 but goes negative.

The reason: according to Mizuho’s Paul Sankey, at a whopping 15MM b/d in oversupply, crude prices could go negative as Saudi and Russian barrels enter the market. According to Sankey, much of the US 4MM bpd in crude exports will be curtailed as prices fall and tanker rates soar. And with US storage roughly 50% full, and able to take another 135MM bbl more, assuming a build rate of 2MM b/d, the US can add 14MM bbl/week for 10 weeks until full.

As a result, there is a now race between filling storage and negative pricing “unless U.S. decline rates can outpace inventory builds, which we very much doubt.” Said otherwise, absent dramatic changes, in roughly 3 months, energy merchants will be paying you if you generously take a couple million barrels of crude off their hands.

It went from bad to an outright disaster earlier this week when Goldman, Vitol, and the IEA all raised their estimate for daily oil oversupply to an unthinkable 20 million barrels per day, as a result of the collapse in oil demand as the global economy grinds to a halt coupled with Saudi Arabia’s determination to put all of its higher-cost OPEC peers out of business.

This means that for the oil market to rebalance, both Saudi Arabia and Russia would have to halt all output. Needless to say that is not happening, in fact Saudi Arabia is now pumping between 2 and 3 million barrels more than it did last month, which is why the negative oil price scenario envisioned by Sankey is looking more real by the day.

So real, in fact, that the US energy industry is starting to contemplate the all too real possibility of running out of storage and as Bloomberg reports American pipeline operators have begun asking oil producers to voluntarily ratchet back their output in the clearest sign yet that a growing glut of crude is overwhelming storage capacity.

As Bloomberg details, Plains All American Pipeline, one of the biggest shippers of crude in the U.S., sent a letter this week asking its suppliers to scale back production. The notice came from the company’s marketing unit that buys and sells oil to customers. At the same time, a Texas oil regulator said Saturday that drillers were getting similar notices from pipeline operators.

“We are sending this proactive request to our suppliers to ask that you take steps to reduce oil production in response to the pandemic,” Plains said in the letter obtained by Bloomberg. Good luck with that: in an industry geared to always producing, that’s similar to asking the Nile to reverse course.

The company sent a separate letter requiring customers to prove they have a buyer or place to offload the crude they’re shipping, according to people familiar with the matter. Enterprise Products Partners LP put out a similar call, one person said. The firm didn’t immediately have comment. The idea is to prevent anyone from parking oil in pipelines, an unprecedented step which suggests pipeline are now convinced US commercial storage will soon be full, at which point oil producers will have no choice but to pay customers to take the oil or wreck unprecedented havoc on the US oil infrastructure.

If there is any confusion, Bloomberg explains the situation succinctly: “the messages signal the oil market is fast approaching the moment traders have been warning about – when crude supplies overflow storage tanks and pipelines as the coronavirus pandemic drags down oil demand by the most in history.

* * *

Also on Saturday, Ryan Sitton, a member of the Texas Railroad Commission that regulates the state’s oil industry, said he’d heard that “some Texas producers are starting to get letters from shippers (pipelines) asking for oil production cuts because they are out of storage.”

There were already signs that North America’s storage system was nearing its limit. On Friday, prices for physical delivery of several key crude grades in North America plunged to the lowest levels in decades. West Texas Intermediate crude in the heart of the Permian shale region plunged to $13.01 a barrel, the lowest since 1999. Meanwhile, West Canada oil is just $5 away from turning negative.

It gets crazier: trading giant Mercuria Energy Group bid just 95 cents for Wyoming Asphalt Sour, a dense oil used mostly to produce paving bitumen, and said the same barrel was bid at below zero earlier this month.

Surprisingly this plunge in oil prices has yet to really hit the gas pump, perhaps because US oil refiners have been steadily cutting back on the amount of crude they buy and process as lockdowns across the nation keep cars off the road, sending gasoline demand plummeting.

Meanwhile, a new wave of defaults is coming as US shale producers have begun to anticipate the day their product will be rejected by intermediaries, and are throttling back drilling even if it means they are staring a bond default squarely in the face. That said, it could take weeks if not months before that translates into a meaningful decline in oil production. Meanwhile, America’s largest oil-storage hub at Cushing, Oklahoma is already more than half full, and filling up at a furious pace.

Sitton has been pushing a plan that would have Texas imposing limits on its crude production as part of a deal with the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. “We need to get in front of this,” he said on Twitter Saturday.

Ok, so ground storage is almost full but what about filling up all those tankers that are floating around aimlessly now that global demand has collapsed? After all it wouldn’t be the first time the US commercial storage was nearly exhausted forcing tankers to be deployed as temporary warehouses of physical product?

Well, that’s precisely what is going on. With the oil market falling into a so-called super contango, which means it is now profitable for traders to buy oil today, store it, and reap the profits by selling it at a higher price months or even years down the line, traders are scrambling to dump oil in portable storage. Firms including Vitol Group and Gunvor Group, two of the world’s largest oil traders, say there’s intense demand to keep barrels at sea.

Traders typically look to use the largest ships for oil storage as they are the most cost-effective. In recent days though, shipowners have also been receiving inquiries about smaller vessels that can hold a million barrels or fewer and for periods of time longer than 12 months, said International Seaways Chief Executive Officer Lois Zabrocky.

“This is a once-in-a-generation type of event,” she said Thursday, quoted by OilandGas360.

As Bloomberg reported separately, citing Robert Hvide Macleod, CEO of tanker owner Frontline Management, “oil is going on ships at a speed never seen before,” as a result of the market’s glut; he added that vessels are being filled at five times the pace of 2015, when oil market was last heavily oversupplied.  International Seaways, another owner, said on Thursday that the total volume of oil in floating storage may top 100 million barrels during this glut.

Why? Because the bottom line bears repeating: “The world is producing 20 million barrels of oil too much every day”, or said otherwise there is no demand for roughly 20% of global output every single day. At this rate, how long before all the storage in Cushing, ARA and China is overflowing and every single tanker in the world is full?

And what happens to the oil price then? One thing is certain – there will be blood.

END

Monday morning/Oil below $20.00

(zerohedge)

Oil +Crashes Below $20, Stocks Drop, Gold Pops As Trump Extends Lockdown

After plunging into Friday’s close, US equity futures markets are extending losses at the open after President Trump extended the virus guidelines (lockdown) until April 30th.

Dow futures have erased most of Thursday’s surge gains…

But oil was the big mover as WTI plunged as much as 7.5% to a $19 handle…

That is the lowest since early 2002…

The kingdom said on Friday that it hadn’t had any contact with Moscow about output cuts or on enlarging the OPEC+ alliance of producers. Russia also doubled down, with Deputy Energy Minister Pavel Sorokin saying oil at $25 a barrel is unpleasant, but not a catastrophe for Moscow.

Bonds are bid…

And gold is rallying modestly…

We’re gonna need more Fed largesse… stat

end

Oil prices are now expected to go negative because there is just no place to store the oil

(zerohedge)

“This Is The Largest Economic Shock Of Our Lifetimes”: Goldman Sees Negative Prices Amid Oil Devastation

Over the weekend, we reported that with the oil industry oversupplied by a mindblowing 20 million barrels daily as roughly 20% of total global output ends up unused in a world economy that has ground to a halt, and instead has to be parked in storage either on land or sea, the unthinkable is about to happen: oil storage space is about to run out, and as that happens the price of oil will continue sliding ever lower and lower until it finally goes negativeas some such as Mizuho’s Paul Sankey predict it will, over the next few months, leading to an unprecedented shockwave across the global energy market.

Then overnight, more eulogies for the oil market emerged, with Bank of America writing that oil has now slumped “into the abyss” and it expects to see the “steepest decline in global oil consumption ever recorded, with our base case reflecting a 12mn b/d drop in 2Q20 and a 4.5mn b/d contraction on average for the year” and on a net basis, BofA now expects global oil demand to contract by almost 17mn b/d in April with consumption recovering modestly into 3Q20 and beyond.

The bank also adjusted its oil price forecasts for 2020 and 2021 down to $37 and $45/bbl for Brent and to $32 and $42/bbl for WTI respectively, but in the near-term, it sees both benchmarks temporarily trading in the teens in the coming weeks.

However, by going all “there will be blood” on oil, BofA has only caught up where Goldman has been for the past two weeks, ever since it predicted that the “physical end was near.” Meanwhile, in a note of unprecedented gloom, Goldman now says that “the physical end is here” as the coronacrisis goes global.

As Goldman’s Jeffrey Currie calculates, the oil surplus generated by an unprecedented demand shock has begun to hit physical constraints at refineries, pipelines and storage facilities, “leading to at least 0.9 million b/d of announced shut-ins at the wellhead, with the true number likely higher and growing by the hour.”

With social distancing measures now impacting 92% of global GDP, the ultimate magnitude of these shut-ins which is still unknown will likely permanently alter the energy industry and its geopolitics, restrict demand as economic activity normalizes and shift the debate around climate change.

In other words, what is taking place now is “not only is this the largest economic shock of our lifetimes” but from a practical perspective, “carbon-based industries like oil sit in the cross-hairs as they have historically served as the cornerstone of social interactions and globalization, the prevention of which are the main defense against the virus.”

Accordingly, oil has been disproportionately hit, likely more than 2x economic activity, with demand this week down an estimated 26 million b/d or c.25%.

As a result, and picking up on what we said over the weekend, Goldman now warns that “this shock is extremely negative for oil prices and is sending landlocked crude prices into negative territory.” Of course, it is only a matter of time before this ultimately creates an inflationary oil supply shock of historic proportions because so much oil production will be forced to be shut-in, but first we need to see prices close to zero… or below it.

Currie next focuses on the storage conundrum we discussed yesterday, and how – as we warned – this will lead to negative oil prices:

The global economy is a complex physical system with physical frictions, and energy sits near the top of that complexity. It is impossible to shut down that much demand without large and persistent ramifications to supply. The one thing that separates energy from other commodities is that it must be contained within its production infrastructure, which for oil includes pipelines, ships, terminals, storage facilities, refineries, and distribution networks. All of which have relatively small and limited spare capacity. We estimate that the world has around a billion barrels of spare storage capacity, but much of that will never be accessed as the velocity of the current shock will breach crude transportation networks first, which we are already seeing evidence of around the world. Indeed, given the cost of shutting down a well, a producer would be willing to pay someone to dispose of a barrel, implying negative pricing in landlocked areas.

The good news, however, is that from the devastation that will follow in the coming months, a new – and far more viable – industry will emerge, or as Currie puts it “the current oil crisis will see the energy industry finally achieve the restructuring it so badly needs. We have long argued that it is the supply and demand of capital that matters, not the supply and demand of barrels; as long as there is capital, companies can withstand difficult periods and the barrels always come back.”

The rest of his full note is below:

Waterborne crudes like Brent will be far more insulated, staying near cash costs of $20/bbl with temporary spikes below. Brent is priced on an island in the North Sea, 500 meters from the water, where tanker storage is accessible. In contrast, WTI is landlocked and 500 miles from the water. This illustrates an important point. Shut-ins will be not be based upon where wells sit on the cost curve but rather on logistics and access. High-cost waterborne crude oil that can reach a ship (storage we have historically never ran out of), are better positioned than landlocked pipeline crude oil sitting behind thousands of miles of pipe, like the crude oils in the US, Russia and Canada. In 1998, when surpluses last breached storage capacity, it was these landlocked crude oils that were the hardest hit. So while markets like WTI, particularly WTI Midland, or Canada’s WCS can go negative, Brent is likely to stay near cash costs of $20/bbl. Ultimately, the market never hits nameplate capacity, as other bottlenecks are also at play. During 2008 and also in this crisis, dollar funding and credit constraints that prevent oil owners from accessing storage and transportation capacity also played a role. We believe that the Fed’s actions last week alleviate some of this risk, but oil itself creates dollar liquidity given its importance in global trade and setting the price of other traded goods and another sharp drop in oil prices could create additional dollar shortages.

The oil price war is made irrelevant by the large decline in demand and has made a coordinated supply response impossible to achieve in time. A month ago, the logic of the price war made sense when the demand shock was c.5.0 million b/d. It gave OPEC and Russia the first opportunity since 2012 to completely undercut shale, and finally reverse the production cut in 2016 which we believe never made economic sense to begin with. Not only did OPEC producers sacrifice $220 billion in lost revenues (annually at $60/bbl Brent) and market share, but so did the equity and debt shareholders of higher-cost producers. The artificially higher prices distorted incentives for oil investment, leading to inefficient capital spending by these companies that, by our estimates, destroyed roughly $1.0 trillion worth of market cap since 2016. The policy of production cuts was a strategic error, not only to OPEC+ countries, but to all equity and debt owners in the industry. Now the question is: can the US and OPEC save this market? The demand shock has become so large that they can’t do it alone, a fact they have acknowledged, stating that a balanced market would require a coordinated global production cut — a policy which appears impossible at this point, too late to stop the current surplus and far below other initiatives on the agenda right now.

The key to how quickly prices rebound after this supply shut-in will depend on how much inventory is built. Markets are already hitting transportation bottlenecks without having filled storage capacity. Oil in Canada is now near $5/bbl and WTI Midland $13/bbl with Cushing inventories still only half full. The quicker and harder these capacity constraints are reached, the quicker and more violently the market will rebalance when production shuts in, and the quicker deficits return to the market, putting upward pressure on prices. In the bear market of 2015/16 production shut-ins were based upon a producer position on the supply cost-curve. Unlike then, the logistical nature of the shut-ins suggest they will be completely indiscriminate, inflicting substantial damage on the wells that in some cases will be permanent. Once economic activity begins to normalize, the deficits will likely be substantial as the rebound in demand will be constrained by supply that has been damaged by the shut-ins. This could potentially require continued destruction of commuting and jet fuel demand. Net, if pipelines get clogged up as refineries shutdown, inventories cannot build, reducing the cushion and creating a very quick risk reversal towards oil shortages that could push prices far above our $55/bbl target for next year.

This will likely be a game-changer for the industry. Once you damage the capital stock in oil it is an expensive and time-consuming process to rebuild, assuming it can be rebuilt at all. This contrasts with the rest of the economy where the capital stock is sitting idle and ready to restart, which is why it is expected to exhibit a V-shaped recovery. In contrast, we believe the upstream sector could lose as much as 5.0 million b/d of oil supply capacity. With that much supply loss the industry will unlikely be able to rebound even close to old demand levels without creating substantial price appreciation, the scale of which will be determined by how much inventory is built in the coming weeks. In addition, the geopolitical landscape is also changing. We note the current political situation in Venezuela, where further US sanctions have been imposed for over half a year and where Rosneft divestitures of oil assets occurred over the weekend. At the same time, Iran has been heavily impacted by the coronavirus, which follows the rise in tensions between the US and Iran in January, during which oil reached its recent peak of $70/bbl. On top of this, there could be further geopolitical instability generated by the extreme economic conditions forced upon the many oil producers in Africa and Latin America.

Oil and gas fields are far different from other manufacturing processes. They are organic deposits and as such have decline rates, having shut an older well it may not be economic to bring it back online. Most of these older, more depleted and less productive wells are onshore, not offshore, which makes them the most vulnerable to shut-ins. We believe shut-in economics will be driven by three factors: 1) crude net-backs (driven by local infrastructure constraints and crude quality); 2) variable cash costs (highest in mature fields with low flow rates); 3) decommissioning liabilities (most material for offshore deep-water fields). As such, we believe that shut-ins are most likely at onshore, mature, depleted, heavier and sourer oil reservoirs in countries like Canada, the US, Russia, Latin America and China. Offshore fields are least likely to be affected, due to their generally higher crude quality, lack of infrastructure constraints and high decommissioning liabilities. Mature, heavier oil, high water-cut reservoirs will also suffer the most from a prolonged shut-in and may not return to their pre-shut-in production capacity once oil demand increases.

We believe the current oil crisis will see the energy industry finally achieve the restructuring it so badly needs. We have long argued that it is the supply and demand of capital that matters, not the supply and demand of barrels; as long as there is capital, companies can withstand difficult periods and the barrels always come back. The difference between today and 2015/16 is that shale and high-cost oil producers were already facing sharply higher costs of capital over the past year due to persistently poor shareholder returns. Indeed, these capital restrictions have only been exacerbated by recent events, whereas in 2015/16 capital never dried up – making the likelihood of capitulation by US E&Ps and EM producers much higher today. Further, the rebalancing phase in our New Oil Order framework was cut short in 2016 by Chinese stimulus that boosted demand followed by OPEC+ production cuts that curtailed supply. In the end, we never saw the final regeneration phase of rationalized assets that would have created a more sustainable industry over the longer term.

Today, we have already seen uneconomic firms shut off from capital. This suggests that the overdue rationalization of the industry is finally set to occur. We believe it will be very selective with a clear focus on upgrading portfolios: Big Oils will consolidate the best assets in the industry and will shed the worst assets. There will be local consolidation amongst E&Ps, and when the industry emerges from this downturn, there will be fewer companies of higher asset quality, but the capital constraints will remain. Capital markets focused on de-carbonisation and lack of visibility over long-term demand will constrain the remaining firms, leading to structural underinvestment and higher corporate returns, bringing an end to energy’s lost decade. Only a significant supply shortfall once demand recovers could slow this much-needed industry consolidation and rationalization. A large, sustained deficit would lead to much higher prices until even marginal shale producers respond, as they remain the fastest cycle source of supply.

The climate change debate will almost certainly take a different course when the global economy emerges from this and is faced with the prospect of having to make large-scale investments into carbon-based industries. The silver lining of the coronacrisis is that the virtual shutdown of key carbon industries – autos, airlines and cruise ships –
is likely to cause carbon emissions to fall this year, with initial data from China pointing to a c.20%+ fall during the peak of the shutdown. It is important to emphasize how the current shock is hurting the unsustainable industries but encouraging sustainable industries. The aircraft and migrant workers that used to bring the world fresh fish, fruit and vegetables have been stopped.

Technological hysteresis is already occurring. People are adapting to a more local existence and living off more sustainable activities, consuming less globally-produced fresh food, producing less waste with a more conservative approach to consumption, all of which may have lasting impacts on demand. Further, commuters and airlines account for c.16.0 million b/d of global oil demand and may never return to their prior levels. While oil prices are low today and physical constraints are forcing the behavioral changes, as oil shortages develop once economic activity normalizes, the high oil prices will likely accelerate the energy transition by constraining demand. For example, commuting and jet demand destruction may still be needed to cope with the supply shortage that is likely to occur once significant supply capacity is hampered. Higher oil prices would also greatly improve the relative economics of EVs and hydrogen. But from the supply side, capital markets’ push for de-carbonization is likely to prevent the broad investment the industry will need to get out of this crisis and will reinforce a tight physical market beyond 2020.

Low returns in energy and commodities have been referred to as a lost decade. Oil has handed investors losses of about 8% per year since 2010. However, we believe that a bottom will be carved out in the coming weeks or months that will serve as the foundation for solid future returns similar to 1999. Combining these potential supply constraints with the large fiscal stimulus in response to the virus, we believe that physical inflationary concerns – with the dollar starting near an all-time high – will finally dominate the financial asset inflation that was a feature of the past decade that acted as a drag on energy and commodity returns. In the very near-term, however, we would play it from the short side. Nonetheless, we must keep in mind the fact that each downturn has become increasingly shorter in duration as the system has been able to adapt more quickly, and although oil prices are likely to further decline in the coming weeks, it is important to start focusing on the transition.

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings MONDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1058 DOWN .0078 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS//CORONAVIRUS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /RED

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 107.94 UP 0.145 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2426   DOWN   0.0019  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/

 

USA/CAN 1.4157 UP .01850 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  MONDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL BY 3 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1058 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 24.97 POINTS OR 0.90% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 309.46 POINTS OR 1.57%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 6,56%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 304.46 POINTS OR 1.57%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 24.97 POINTS OR 0.90%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP 6.56% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 304.46  POINTS OR 1.57%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1623.35

silver:$14.03-

Early MONDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 0.66% !!!DOWN 3 IN POINTS from FRIDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 1.25 DOWN 2  IN BASIS POINTS from FRIDAY night.

USA dollar index early MONDAY morning: 98.98 UP 61 CENT(S) from  FRIDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers MONDAY MORNING

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And now your closing  MONDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.73% UP 7 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.01%  DOWN 1   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.56%//UP 4 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:1,47 UP 15 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 91 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.50% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.97% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR MONDAY

Closing currency crosses for MONDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1017  DOWN     .0119 or 119 basis points

USA/Japan: 107.89 UP .099 OR YEN DOWN 10  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2396 DOWN .0050 POUND DOWN 50  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 190 basis points to 1.4163

 

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The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 7.1003    ON SHORE  (DOWN)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  7.1159  (YUAN DOWN)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  6.5787 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.01%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN  5 IN basis points from FRIDAY at 0.63 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 1.21 DOWN 6 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 99.19 UP 83  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for MONDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 53.41  0.97%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 183.45 POINTS OR 1.90%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 27.02 POINTS 0.62%

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 118.00 POINTS or 1.74%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 49.82 POINTS OR 0.30%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 20.26 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 22.52 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE FALLS:    79,68  THE CROSS LOWER BY 0.94 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE LOWER BY 94 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.50 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  55.66//

 

 

BRENT :  62.41

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 2.03…

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.57..

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.177 ( UP 49   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:107.27 DOWN .667 (YEN UP 67 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 97.69 DOWN 53 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.2554 UP 119  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 5.6298

 

 

the Russian rouble 62.86   UP 0.03 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( UP 3 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3034 UP 21 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  6.8800  (ONSHORE)/we need to watch these levels/anything greater than 6.95 will be deadly./

 

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 6.8740 (OFFSHORE) we need to watch these levels/anything greater than 6.95 will be deadly/

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.32%

 

The Dow closed UP 2.65 POINTS OR 0.01%

 

NASDAQ closed UP 22.04 POINTS OR 0.27%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  13.53 CLOSED DOWN .44

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 1.450%//libor rising like crazy 

 

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

Stocks Bid Into Month-End Despite Americans’ Unprecedented Cash-Hoarding

Amid an ever-escalating guess at the size of pension fund re-allocations funds (latest we saw was $150 billion) into month-end, both bonds and stocks were bid early on today, but as the day wore on, bonds weakened as stocks gained (driven by record IG issuance-driven rate-locks)…

Source: Bloomberg

But while some are rebalancing into stocks, the scramble for cash among average Americans has almost never been more panicky

Source: Bloomberg

Just as notably, crude oil prices crashed to multi-decade lows today, completely decoupling from stocks (correlation crashed)…

Source: Bloomberg

The question is – how long will the bounce last? If it’s month-end, then 2008 is still in play…

Source: Bloomberg

Maybe it’s better not to play…

And most of all, some context shows that today’s ramp merely unwinds the carnage from the last 30 minutes of Friday… (note this was a 1300 points rally off overnight lows)

S&P and Nasdaq managed to erase that late-day plunge…(Note the Dow ended perfectly unch from Friday highs)

Breadth was very weak with declining volume dominating advancing volume for most of the day…

Source: Bloomberg

The Dow pushed back above the Dec 2008 lows today…

Source: Bloomberg

Defensives outpeformed cyclicals today…

Source: Bloomberg

US IG credit has dramatically outperformed Europe since The Fed promise to start buying…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasuries were bid overnight but selling pressure accelerated as the US day session wore on (month-end rebalance and record IG issuance-driven rate-locks – U.S. companies borrowed a record $109 billion, which was met with $550 billion of demand, in what one dealer called a “food fight” for new bonds, according to Bloomberg)

Source: Bloomberg

Intraday, 10Y Yields fell back to a 59bps handle before the US session sell-off…

Source: Bloomberg

Mission Accomplished for The Fed as Agency MBS dislocations have corrected…

Source: Bloomberg

The Dollar Index managed gains today (the first in 5 days and best in 7 days)…

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos rallied today but were unable to erase the losses from the weekend…

Source: Bloomberg

Commodities were all lower today led by crude’s carnage…

Source: Bloomberg

WTI broke down to $19.27 at its lows (before bouncing back above $20.00 on the settle)…

And finally, as the oil market struggles with an unprecedented hit to demand caused by the coronavirus, its main measure of supply and demand is screaming that a historic glut is emerging.

Source: Bloomberg

As Bloomberg details, Brent crude futures for May are now trading at an incredible $13.30 a barrel discount to November prices, a deeper and more bearish super-contango than the market saw even in the depths of the 2008-09 global financial crisis. Consultants say that, as things currently stand, the world is just a few months from running out of places to stash crude.

And we note that the ‘Virus Fear’-trade started to pick up again today…

Source: Bloomberg

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA/CORONAVIRUS UPDATE USA

COVID-19 Outbreak Infects 66 At Maryland Nursing Home 

While the nursing home in Kirkland, Washington, was the epicenter of the COVID-19 outbreak three weeks ago, the fast-spreading virus has turned its crosshairs onto the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic regions. Virus cases and deaths are now erupting in New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Pennsylvania, and Maryland.

The hardest-hit area is New York state, which has 53,399 confirmed cases and 827 deaths as of Saturday night (March 28). Reports are pouring in that hospital systems in the region are beyond capacity, and that is the point where the mortality rate could surge unless extra capacity is brought online to alleviate the lack of hospital beds and ICU-level treatment.

At the moment, New Jersey is the second hardest-hit area with 11,124 cases and 140 deaths, next is Massachusetts with 4,257 cases and 44 deaths, then Pennsylvania with 2,845 cases and 34 deaths, and last is Maryland with 995 cases and 10 deaths.

It appears the epicenter of the virus has shifted from West Coast to East Coast. Parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic have densely packed metro areas with large senior populations, a dangerous combination that could lead to a further rise in cases and deaths.

With March coming to a close, the virus spread is impacting ever more of the East Coast. According to a new report by Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan on Saturday, a nursing home in the state has just confirmed 66 cases, resulting in 11 hospitalizations, reported CBS Baltimore, in what appears to be a tragic repeat of the Washington events. 

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View image on Twitter

Hogan said state and local officials are at the Pleasant View Nursing Home in Mount Airy, Maryland, located in Carroll County.

“Tonight, Maryland has experienced a tragic coronavirus outbreak at Pleasant View Nursing Home in Mount Airy. Multiple state agencies are on the scene and working closely with the local health department and the facility as they take urgent steps to protect additional residents and staff who may have been exposed.”

“As we have been warning for weeks, older Marylanders and those with underlying health conditions are more vulnerable and at a significantly higher risk of contracting this disease,” Hogan added.

The Carroll County Health Department published this memo to the public:

“Pleasant View Nursing Home continues to cooperate with and follow the guidance of the Maryland Department of Health and the Carroll County Health Department. We’re maintaining constant communication and will continue to provide resources and support to the patients, their families and facility staff during this difficult time.”

Elsewhere in the state, a fire station in Baltimore had to suspend operations after firefighters came in contact with an emergency medical services provider who tested positive for the virus.

The Maryland National Guard and Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) have been setting up a large field hospital at the Baltimore Convention Center.

View image on Twitter

View image on TwitterView image on TwitterView image on Twitter

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We noted last week that the National Guard deployed armored vehicles across the Baltimore City to help out with virus-related preparations.

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Though we must note, state officials are concerned about social unrest that could soon unfold in low-income neighborhoods across the Baltimore region.

END

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

As expected, the Dallas Fed manufacturing index crashes to its worst level ever…

(zerohedge)

Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey Crashes To Worst Level Ever

In a stunning miss to expectations, March’s Dallas Fed Manufacturing Outlook survey crashed like never before (from +1.2 in February to -70.0 – massively below the -10.0 expectation).

Source: Bloomberg

As you can see, this is the weakest level ever and the most aggressive collapse ever. As one trader mocked when the data hit, “…is that a bad print?”

The measures production and new orders both were lowest since 2009.

The figures are consistent with severe declines in other regional gauges as unprecedented shutdowns freeze large parts of the industrial economy. Regional Fed bank measures of manufacturing in New York, the Philadelphia area, and Kansas City district all showed record monthly declines.

Source: Bloomberg

Of course, Texas has been hit with both barrels of collapse as the oil price war and national virus lockdown crush markets.

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

In the aftermath of the Commercial Paper panic, banks are drawing down on the facilities in record numbers:  This week: total USA banks suffered a massive 200 billion outflow.

(zerohedge)

“Revolver Run”: Banks Suffer Record $200BN In Outflows As Frenzied Companies Draw Down Revolvers

Last Friday, we reported that in the aftermath of the great Commercial Paper panic of 2020, which erupted over the past two weeks when the Fed only launched a Commercial Paper backstop facility after the market freaked out last Tuesday, countless blue chip (and less than clue chip) companies found themselves with gaping liquidity shortfalls, and to bridge their funding needs, they rushed to draw on their existing credit facilities (also a hedge in case the banking system imposes a lending moratorium similar to what happened in the 2008 crash).

As a result, as of last Friday, corporate borrowers worldwide, including Boeing, Hilton, Wynn, Kraft Heinz and literally thousands more, had drawn about $60 billion from revolving credit facilities this week in a frantic dash for cash as liquidity tightens.

In the meantime, any hope that the Fed had unclogged the commercial paper market were crushed after the Commercial Paper 90 Day AA non-fin spread to 3M OIS dipped a bit earlier this week…

 

… after the Fed announced the launch of a Commercial Paper and Money Market backstop facility, but has since continued to blow out and has blown out well beyond the wides reached during the financial crisis.

As a result what was a revolver “bank run” has become a spring for the ages as virtually every company has rushed out to draw down its revolver for two reasons i) with the CP market still locked up, even blue chips have no access to short-term funding, ii) increasingly more companies are concerned their banks may not survive so why not just draw down the facility and hold the cash instead of being subject to the whims of some fickle bank Treasurer who may not have a job tomorrow, or who decided to abrogate all revolver contracts with the blink of an eye (see “Bankrupt Oil Company Trolls Its Banks, Says They May Fail Too“).

Confirming the unprecedented revolver drawdown scramble of 2020, JPMorgan reports that its tracker of known corporates that have tapped banks for funding rose further to a record $208 billion on Thursday, up $15 billion from $193 billion on Wednesday and $112BN on Sunday. That’s right: nearly $100 billion in liquidity was drained from banks in the past week; is there any wonder that the interbank dollar squeeze as indicated by the FRA/OIS continues?

And another staggering number: according to JPMorgan, in aggregate corporate borrowings represent 77% of the total facilities, with JPM noting that the total amount of borrowing by companies is likely significantly greater than this, well above 80%, as it only reflects disclosed amounts by large companies, and there are likely undisclosed borrowings by middle market companies.

Some more observations on corporate drawdowns:

  • these exclude $41 BN of rumored borrowings, uncompleted deals, and new credit lines that are not clear if drawn for Airbus, AT&T, Daimler, Fiat Chrysler, and Honeywell.
  • 25 new borrowers added today, and largest were: H&R Block ($2 bil) and McDonald’s, Lear, and Red Rock Resorts (each ~$1 bil). There are now 238 borrowers in total, and the five largest (GM, Ford, Boeing, AB InBev, Petrobras) account for $62 bil.
  • 55% of announced borrowings are by investment grade firms, of which $24 bil or 19% are BBB- rated, $77 bil or 37% are by non-investment grade firms, and 8% did not have available ratings.  Relative to yesterday, the rise in non-IG borrowings reflects Ford being moved to BB.

And while JPM does not expect this record drawdown to “cause capital concerns at banks” as these loans are (allegedly) broadly syndicated, and funding will come from a broad group of banks including foreign banks, the simple fact that FRA-OIS refuses to drop may be the clearest indication yet of just how crippling for bank liquidity the “revolver run” has been.

end

 

Wow!! a must read;  Mark Cubana, former Fed NY strategist now expects the Fed balance sheet to double to 9 trillion and send asset prices including gold and silver through the roof

a must read..

(zerohedge)

 

$9,000,000,000,000: Former Fed Strategist Now Expects Fed’s Balance Sheet To Double This Year

Late on Thursday, we calculated that as of the end of this turbulent week, the Fed will have added a record $625 billion to its balance sheet, bringing the total to $5.5 trillion, an increase of $1.3 trillion in two weeks (6% of GDP), which was the amount the Fed monetized during all of QE1 in response to the financial crisis, but which took place over a period of almost 2 years.

That’s just the start of what will soon become the most aggressive expansion in Fed balance sheet history because according to BofA’s Fed guru Mark Cabana, who was a former officer in the New York Fed’s Markets Group, the Fed’s balance sheet is now set to double to $9 trillion by the end of the year, to wit:

We acknowledge there is elevated uncertainty around the outlook for the balance sheet, but anticipate it will approximately double in size from end ’19 to end ’20.

The estimates for the Fed’s balance sheet “after unlimited QE and new programs” currently imply that between end ’19 & end ’20:

  • Fed balance sheet to US GDP will rise from 20% to 40%, in the process unleashing an unprecedented liquidity tsunami that will send asset prices soaring once the pandemic is over yet the Fed refuses to shrink its balance sheet (Chart 2)

  • Fed UST as percentage of marketable debt will rise from 20% to 50%, in other words the Fed will now monetize all US Treasury issuance and then some (Chart 4)

  • Fed UST holdings will increase by $1.8tn and agency MBS by $700+bn
  • Reserves will increase three- to four-fold

All of the above in table format:

To arrive at these estimates, Cabana make the following assumptions about Fed purchases and use of the Fed’s facilities:

UST and MBS purchasesexpect two phases:

  • (1) initial bazooka to support market functioning. The Fed has purchased $75bn/day of USTs and $50bn/day of MBS. Through next week Cabana anticipates an average of $60bn/day of USTs and $40bn/day of MBS, which is fascinating because Cabana published this report in the early morning hours of Friday, and just a few hours later the Fed announced that it would follow precisely this schedule, tapering TSY QE from $75BN to $60BN and MBS from $50BN to $40, which announcement sent stocks sharply lower in the last 30 minutes of trading on Friday.

  • (2) standard QE from April through December with $75bn/month of USTs and $50bn/month of MBS; this would help with the glut of upcoming UST supply.

Fed facilities – The Fed has announced five facilitiesCPFF, MMLF, PMCCF, SMCCF and TALF. Treasury made an initial investment of $10bn in these facilities, which can be 10x levered. Congress is set to allocate another $454bn to the Fed facilities, which can be 10x levered. This implies the max size of these facilities is roughly $5tn, and BofA anticipates 50% takeup spread across three months. In ’08, TALF saw 35% takeup, so assume about 1.5x takeup of facilities now vs ’08 levels.

Discount window and PDFC – Assume discount window and PDCF use peaks at around $120bn in the near term then gradually declines.

FX swap lines – Assume FX swap line use peaks around $200bn, and current 84 day operations roll off in June.

While the former NY Fed staffer acknowledges that there is an elevated uncertainty around these estimates, he sees the risks to his estimates “as skewed to the high side.”

In short, once you start helicopter money you never stop.

* * *

Finally, what are the market implications from the Fed going full BOJ. There are three, as the Fed’s launch of helicopter money in conjunction with the treasury should support:

  1. liquidity – the sharp reserve increase will allow for funding markets to operate in state of abundant liquidity
  2. low long-term US rates – As even Cabana admits, “the Fed’s large holdings of US Treasuries will amount to COVID-19 stimulus debt monetization and support low longer-term UST yields”, in short after 11 years of debate whether the Fed is or isn’t monetizing debt, we finally have a clear answer and guess what, the tinfoil conspiracy blog won.
  3. Corporate bonds (i.e. LQD) will benefit from Fed credit programs.

One final point: buy physical gold, lots of it (pay whatever premium over spot is asked), because the real purpose behind the Fed’s helicopter money which miraculously came at the “right” time – just as the economy was about to tailspin into a recession even without covid-19- courtesy of a virus which prompted a coordinated global reset and the launch of helicopter money, will allow the Fed to commence the endgame of fiat currencies. In the process, the Fed will inject $4.5 trillion into capital markets which will eventually trickle down to the economy.

The endgame is simple: an initial deflationary bust followed by hyperinflation, first in asset markets and soon after, as the Fed triples down on helicopter money until it eventually buys gold outright in the final dollar devaluation, everywhere else. 

end
The next shoe to fall: state and local tax revenues
(zerohedge)

What Happens As State And Local Tax Revenues Crater?

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

We can anticipate a federal bailout of pension funds and one-time aid to state and local governments, but bailouts won’t repair the eroding foundations of tax revenues.

As we all know, the federal government can “print” money but state, county and city governments cannot. The Treasury can sell bonds to fund deficit spending, and the Federal Reserve can create currency out of thin air to buy the bonds, so federal spending can increase even as tax revenues crash.

State, county and city governments do not have this printing press. Yes, states and counties can sell municipal bonds for infrastructure projects, but they can’t sell bonds to support General Fund (i.e. everyday government services) expenditures.

As a result, massive declines in State, county and local tax revenues are already baked in as sales and payroll taxes drop and capital gains taxes–an essential source of revenues for many states–are set to collapse along with the stock market.

Longer term, the other primary source of tax revenues–property taxes–will fall off a cliff as the commercial real estate bubble and Housing Bubble #2 implode later this year. Lower sales, lower employment and lower profits all undermine the fundamentals of real estate, and the institutionalization of remote work and education will gut demand for commercial space.

Real estate transactions are also sources of transfer taxes and capital gains, and as values plummet so will transfer taxes and capital gains.

Every locale has a different mix of tax revenues, but since all sources will fall sooner or later, no state or local government will escape the decline in revenues. Sales (excise) and payroll tax revenues will fall first, and capital gains will vanish as stock market losses replace gains.

In states like California that depend heavily on capital gains taxes, the holes being blown in budgets will be catastrophic. Roughly 10% of all General Fund revenues in California flow from capital gains–over $15 billion in the previous fiscal year. As noted in the California State Revenue Estimate 2019-2020:

“The amount of capital gains revenue in the General Fund can vary greatly from year to year. For instance, in 2007, capital gains contributed $10.9 billion to the General Fund. By 2009, the contribution from capital gains had dropped to $2.3 billion. For 2018, capital gains are forecast to contribute $15.7 billion to General Fund revenue–the highest amount ever.”

Were this to drop to previous recession-era lows, that would open a $13 billion hole in tax revenues, completely erasing the state’s $8 billion “rainy day fund” and leaving a $5 billion deficit–a sum that will only increase as sales and payroll taxes decline.

Once Silicon Valley Unicorns, Big Tech and zombie corporations start laying off highly paid staff, income tax revenues will crater as well. As the California State Revenue Estimate 2019-2020 explains:

“The highest-income Californians pay a large share of the state’s personal income tax. For the 2016 tax year, the top 1 percent of income earners paid just under 46 percent of personal income taxes. This percentage has been greater than 40 percent in 12 of the past 13 years. Consequently, changes in the income of a relatively small group of taxpayers can have a significant impact on state revenues.”

Many states and counties are increasingly dependent on a dominant revenue source which may well prove to be an Achilles Heel. California has increasingly come to depend on income taxes from high earners (who also garner most of the capital gains as well):

“In 1950-51, sales tax revenue made up over 50 percent of General Fund revenues while personal income tax revenue made up just more than 11 percent. That relationship has changed dramatically over time, and, for 2019-20, personal income tax makes up 68.8 percent of all General Fund revenues.”

A steep decline in tax revenues isn’t the end of the pain for local government. Public-sector pension funds heavily invested in stocks are absorbing shattering losses that will have to be compensated by higher contributions by cash-strapped taxpayers. If bond yields rise despite central bank interventions, bond holdings could crash along with stocks.

We can anticipate a federal bailout of pension funds and one-time aid to state and local governments, but bailouts won’t repair the eroding foundations of tax revenues. Sales: down. Income: down. Capital gains: down. Vehicle sales: down. Fuel taxes: down. Property taxes: down, once bubble valuations crash to earth.

Cash-strapped taxpayers, many of whom may have lost their jobs, will be in no mood to absorb enormous tax increases to fund insiders, cronies and vested interests.

The gravy train of state and local government spending has just been derailed. The declines in tax revenues will be too steep and too enduring to support the magical-thinking hope that a V-shaped recovery will make all the blown budgets whole next quarter, much less next year.

end

Not only health workers are getting sick but also police officers

(zerohedge)

“Officers Are Scared” – Cops Nationwide Sick, Dying From COVID-19

The fast-spreading virus has frightened law enforcement agencies across the US as confirmed cases now exceeded China’s and are now the highest in the world.

AP News says 20% of Detroit’s police force is now in quarantine; two officers have died from COVID-19, and 39 tested positive.

For

 

the 2,000-person department, it has been nothing more than headaches as officers have been working multiple shifts to fill in for those who are in quarantine. The force is under severe stress, and that could mean with a loss of patrol units, any outbreak of social unrest would be hard to contain. Hence why Michigan’s National Guard was activated several weeks ago.

Detroit Police Dept.@detroitpolice

To the Graduating Class of 2020-C, the @detroitpolice Department and the City of Detroit are proud of you! “You will forever be known as the class that started their days handling one of the biggest crisis of American History” said @ChiefJECraigDPD

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Law enforcement agencies across the country are reporting their officers are dropping like flies. Many are getting sick as the virus consumes the nation.

“I don’t think it’s too far to say that officers are scared out there,” said Sgt. Manny Ramirez, president of Fort Worth Police Officers Association.

As of Saturday, AP says a survey it conducted last week found that 690 officers and civilian employees at 40 law enforcement agencies across the country tested positive for the virus. A majority of the infected officers were part of the New York City Police Department (NYPD).

In the days ahead, it appears the virus will infect more officers across the country. Groups representing American police and fire chiefs, sheriffs, mayors, and county leaders urged President Trump last week to invoke a Korean War-era law that would boost private industry production of supplies needed for the health crisis that would better equip officers.

“We’re in war footing against an invisible enemy and we are on the verge of running out of protective supplies,” said Houston Police Chief Art Acevedo, president of the Major Cities Chiefs Association. “We’ve got hospitals calling police departments, police departments calling each other, and it’s time to nationalize in terms of our response.”

Former Boston Police Commissioner Ed Davis said the virus is unlike anything any law enforcement force has ever dealt with:

“We’re in unprecedented territory here,” said Davis, who was the top cop in Boston during the 2013 marathon bombing.

AP says 10% of NYPD officers called in sick on Friday, straining the force and jeopardizing the safety of civilians:

“In New York, which has rapidly become the American epicenter of the pandemic, more than 500 NYPD personnel have come down with COVID-19, including 442 officers, and the department’s head of counter-terrorism was hospitalized with symptoms. Two NYPD employees have died. On a single day this week, Friday, 4,111 uniformed officers called in sick, more than 10% of the force and more than three times the daily average.

Leadership at America’s largest police department maintains that it’s continuing enforcement as usual. But they’ve also said that if the disease continues to affect manpower the NYPD could switch patrol hours, or pull officers from specialized units and other parts of the city to fill gaps — steps also taken after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks.” 

It’s becoming evident that the virus is already hurting major police forces across the country. If social unrest breaks out in the weeks or months ahead, as per a new warning from the Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, then some forces might not have the capability to contain the riots.

That’s why President Trump on Friday signed an executive order that would give the Defense Department “the authority to activate the ready reserve components of the armed forces.”

With the economy crashed, millions out of work, and a pandemic sweeping across the nation, the evolution of this crisis could be social unrest.

end
These guys are hopelessly in debt: the 25 million bailout pays to prevent the centre from paying its musicians
(zerohedge)

After Receiving $25 Million Coronavirus Bailout, JFK Center Stops Paying Musicians

After receiving a controversial $25 million bailout (which would pay for a lot of respirators), the John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts notified nearly 100 musicians with the National Symphony Orchestra that they won’t receive paychecks after April 3rd, according to the orchestra’s COVID-19 Advisory Committee obtained by the Washington Free Beacon.

“The Covid-19 Advisory Committee was broadsided today during our conversation with [Kennedy Center President] Deborah Rutter,” reads the email. “Ms. Rutter abruptly informed us today that the last paycheck for all musicians and librarians will be April 3 and that we will not be paid again until the Center reopens.”

The email went out to members on Friday evening, shortly after President Trump signed the $2 trillion CARES Act, a stimulus package intended to provide relief to people left unemployed by the coronavirus pandemic. Congress included $25 million in taxpayer funding for the Kennedy Center, a provision that raised eyebrows from both Democrats and Republicans, but ultimately won support from President Trump. The bailout was designed to “cover operating expenses required to ensure the continuity of the John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts and its affiliates, including for employee compensation and benefits, grants, contracts, payments for rent or utilities, fees for artists or performers,” according to the law’s text. The arts organization decided that the relief did not extend to members of the National Symphony Orchestra, its house orchestra. –Washington Free Beacon

“Everyone should proceed as if their last paycheck will be April 3,” the email continues. “We understand this will come [as a] shock to all of you, as it did to us.”

One veteran member of the orchestra (who we suspect forwarded the email to the Beacon) told the outlet that the decision has “blindsided” musicians.

“It’s very disappointing [that] they’re going to get that money and then drop us afterward,” the musician said. “The Kennedy Center blindsided us.”

The centre, which received $41 million from taxpayers in 2019, just completed a $250 million renovation – however it faced insurmountable deficits after shuttering its doors on March 12 due to COVID-19.

Rutter, meanwhile, told the Washington Post that she would forego her $1.2 million salary while the JFK center was closed – while orchestra members bristled at the idea of doing the same.

“While the Union understands that the Kennedy Center has decided to cancel all performances through May 10, 2020 because of the COVID-19 pandemic, those cancellations do not give the Association any contractual basis for failing to comply with the sections of the [agreement],” reads a grievance filed by the orchestra, claiming that the center has violated its contract with members that stipulates members be given at least six-weeks notice before they can stop paychecks.

“There is no provision of our collective bargaining agreement that allows the Kennedy Center to decide to stop paying us with only one week of notice,” the email says. “While we fully expect that an arbitrator would agree that management violated the CBA and that we are entitled to continued salary and benefits, this process takes time.

end

Not good: Fauci, “w are going to have millions of cases and between 100,000 and 200,000 deaths

(zerohedge)

 

Dr. Fauci: “We’re Going To Have Millions Of Cases” And “Between 100K & 200K Deaths”

The last time Dr. Anthony Fauci did the Sunday Shows a few weeks back, he achieved a vaunted Washington milestone by doing all five network and cable Sunday shows – NBC, ABC, CBS, Fox News & CNN – in one day. That was back when President Trump’s approval rating was soaring, and the good doctor was indisputably the lead ‘subject matter expert’ guiding the White House’s response.

That was less than a month ago. But in that time, so much has changed.

President Trump and the good doctor are said to be at odds over some vaguely critical statements made by Fauci. Of course, that didn’t stop the administration and that task force’s media team from sending him out to do more Sunday Show appearances as officials hope futures will open higher after Friday’s selloff following the first three-day rebound since February.

Still, as the death toll in the US crept above 2,000, Dr. Fauci, officially the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and a member of the White House coronavirus task force told CNN’s “State of the Union” that models suggest the coronavirus will infect millions of Americans and could kill between 100,000 to 200,000.

However, he stressed that these projections are really a “moving target”, and that it’s possible the numbers could be much lower – or much higher – depending on how the US handles the response. So far, the disorganized response at the federal level has left a hodge podge of states to deal with their own problems, which is why Louisiana Gov. John Bel Edwards – a Democrat – is begging the Feds for help before the outbreak completely overruns his state’s capacity to handle it.

Josh Jordan

@NumbersMuncher

Video of Dr. Fauci telling @jaketapper that “Looking at what we’re seeing now, I would say between 100,000 and 200,000 cases… excuse me, deaths. I mean, we’re going to have millions of cases.”

These next few weeks could be pretty rough.

Embedded video

Back to the interview, Dr. Fauci told Jake Tapper that “Looking at what we are seeing now, I would say between 100,000-200,000” deaths from the coronavirus. “We’re going to have millions of cases,” he added.

“But it’s such a moving target and you could so easily be wrong…what we do know is we have a serious problem in New York, we have a serious problem in New Orleans and we’re going to be developing serious problems in other areas. Although people like to model it, let’s just look at the data that we have, and not worry about these worst case and best case scenarios.”

Dr. Fauci also cautioned the public about how to interpret models:

“There are things called models, and when someone creates a model, they put in various assumptions. And the model is only as good and as accurate as your assumptions.”

“And whenever the modelers come in, they give a worst case scenario and a best case scenario. Generally, the reality is somewhere in the middle. I’ve never seen a model of the diseases that I’ve dealt with where the worst case scenario actually came out. They always overshoot.”

Dr. Fauci stressed that Trump’s hope to reopen the country by Easter will greatly depend on whether the public complies with the ‘shelter in place’ recommendations, though he said he greatly doubts that the US will be able to reopen by next week (Easter is April 12, still a couple of weeks away). And notably, when Tapper pressed Dr. Fauci about rumors the administration was ignoring Democratic governors pleas for more federal assistance simply because they were Democrats, Dr. Fauci assured CNN that anybody asking for assistance would get it.

MAGA Immigrant@RealCindy9

Watch Tapper tried to trap Dr. Fauci to smear President Trump😂😂😂
Dr. shut him down quickly again and again throughout the whole interview.

Embedded video

That last clip is really something: but the takeaway from the interview is this: prepare for the worst, but hope for the best. The result is going to depend on whether millions of Americans do their part not to spread the virus. So, instead of focusing on the projections, focus on reacting to the situation at hand.

end
Crooks!!
(zerohedge)

CFTC Quietly Bails Out Capital One

Last Friday, around the time of the quad-witching collapse which sent the S&P to levels not seen since Trump’s inauguration, amid the flurry of headlines bombarding shell-shocked traders, was one that was particularly ominous if bizarrely incomplete. Shortly after the close, Bloomberg blasted the following headline:

  • CFTC PROVIDING RELIEF TO LARGE U.S. BANK ACTIVE IN OIL, GAS

There was little additional information to go with the report, aside from the CFTC saying it would temporarily exempt a U.S. bank from a requirement to register as a “Major Swap Participant” even though its growing energy swaps exposure would technically require it to do so by the end of the next quarter, and since the bank was not named, traders’ attention quickly shifted to whatever the next crisis du jour, or rather du minute was.

However, late last week, Reuters reported citing two sources, that the bank in question was Virginia-based Capital One, best known for questionable retail lending and cheesy credit card commercials starting Samuel L Jackson.

 

So what exactly happened? According to a spokesman for the CFTC, the commodities regulator issued a waiver to protect the bank and its energy clients from “undue disruption,” given the unprecedented market conditions over the past month amid the coronavirus outbreak.

“We have actively encouraged all market participants to identify regulatory relief or other assistance that may be needed to help support robust, orderly and liquid markets in the face of this pandemic,” the spokesman said, implicitly admitting that the CFTC intervention amounted to what was an effective bailout of the bank.

At the core of the issue were plunging oil prices, which ended up having a margin call effect on the bank’s swaps exposure; and since Capital One’s waiver lasts until Sept. 30, if energy prices remain low or the bank’s exposure remains above the threshold, it will register as a swap participant or make business adjustments, the CFTC said on Friday.

And here is why anyone who currently has a deposit account at CapitalOne may consider quietly moving the money elsewhere: according to Reuters, the CFTC designation entails a number of complex and costly reporting and compliance obligations, which the CFTC spokesman said could hurt the institution’s ability to keep lending.

In short, CapitalOne made a terrible trade, betting via derivatives that oil would not plunge to where it is now – at 17 year lows – and only CFTC intervention prevented a margin call of unknown magnitude from being sent to Capital One’s corner office. Which is surprising considering that the bank is a relatively small player in the energy lending and financing business, with energy loans accounting for just 1.4% of its total loan book, according to its filings.

As part of that business, Capital One enters into commodity swaps with its commercial oil and gas clients to help them mitigate the risk of energy price swings and the related borrowing risks. Typically, those trades do not bring Capital One’s swaps exposure anywhere close to the CFTC’s registration threshold, according to the CFTC’s Friday notice.

But the 50% plunge in crude oil prices caused by the coronavirus and a flood of supply by top producers has seen its exposure on those swaps balloon, putting it on course to hit the threshold by the end of this month, the CFTC said.

As Reuters details, the threshold kicks in if a bank has $1 billion in daily average aggregate commodity swap exposure that is not secured by collateral, such as cash margin. Which, it appears, was the case with CapitalOne.

Following the 2007-2009 financial crisis during which several major institutions were toppled by their derivatives exposure, Congress created a slew of swap trading laws to reduce systemic risk and increase the visibility of the market. However, the ad hoc decision to grant a waiver in this case has sparked worries that regulators are going too easy on banks in a bid to prop up lending, exposing them to more risk down the road if energy prices do not rebound.

In effect, the CFTC allowed CapitalOne to incur even greater ongoing losses, while buying it a quarter’s worth of time, in hopes that oil rebounds. But what happens if instead of rebounding, oil keeps grinding lower and, as we warned earlier today, actually goes negative as oil storage space runs out? The cumulative exposure facing CapitalOne would be many billions, and could potentially render the bank insolvent.

That said, COF is not the only one: across the board, regulators have scrambled to grant regulatory relief, worried banks will pull back from lending and exacerbate corporate liquidity stress.

“The priority of the CFTC is not to prop up an ailing sector. It’s to ensure that the market is protected from risks,” said Tyson Slocum, a director at government watchdog group Public Citizen and a member of the CFTC’s Energy and Environmental Markets Advisory Committee.

But then, in an surprising and sobering admission that the CFTC did in fact participate in a quiet bailout of CapitalOne – because had the bank announced it was facing a $1+ billion margin call one can imagine what its depositors would do – Slocum added he was worried the agency would give exemptions to other banks caught flatfooted by the market turmoil.

“I’ve got concerns with over-leveraged banks in the oil and gas sector. I don’t want this to spread across the financial sector.”

Dear Tyson: by letting CapitalOne get away with it, you have once again propagated moral hazard and guaranteed that this will spread across the financial sector, as bank after bank comes begging for a similar stealthy bailout, all the while doing nothing but praying that oil miraculously rebounds in the next three months. But what if it doesn’tand who will tell CapitalOne’s depositors that they are now sitting on a ticking time bomb? This guy?

END
 And now it is the Mortgage lenders that are demanding a fed bailout due to the fact that the Fed buying of mortgages are forcing staggering and unprecedented margin calls
(zerohedge)

Mortgage Lenders Demand Fed Bailout… After Blaming Fed For Forcing “Staggering, Unprecedented” Margin Calls

There’s another ‘epidemic’ ripping through America that, for many on Wall Street, is just as terrifying as COVID-19… and this time The Fed is to blame.

We reported last week on the multitude of mortgage companies that were facing an existential threat from massive margin calls:

First, its was AG Mortgage Investment Trust which on Friday said it failed to meet some margin calls and doesn’t expect to be able to meet future margin calls with its current financing. Then it was TPG RE Finance Trust which also hit a liquidity wall and could not repay its lenders. Then, on Monday it was first Invesco, then ED&F Man Capital, and  now the mortgage mayhem that erupted as a daisy-chain of mortgage REITs suddenly imploded, has taken down MFA Financial, whose crashing stock was halted after the company reported that “due to the turmoil in the financial markets resulting from the global pandemic of the COVID-19 virus, the Company and its subsidiaries have received an unusually high number of margin calls from financing counterparties, and have also experienced higher funding costs in respect of its repurchase agreements.”

All of which means – in no surprise whatsoever – that these mortgage-related firms are demanding a bailout!! Because ‘Murica… and capitalism, right?

And most ironically, mortgage bankers are demanding The Fed STOP buying mortgage bonds. As Bloomberg reports, bankers are sounding alarms that The Fed’s unprecedented buying of $183 billion of bonds tied to home loans last week are unintentionally putting their industry at risk by triggering a flood of margin calls on hedges lenders have entered into to protect themselves from losses.

In a Sunday letter, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) urged the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the nation’s main brokerage regulator to address the problem by telling securities firms not to escalate margin calls to “destabilizing levels.”

The MBA letter, signed by CEO Robert Broeksmit, said that when lenders issue new loans, they often simultaneously short mortgage-backed securities. This is done because the loans might fall in value before a banker can sell them to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The bet against mortgage bonds helps protect the lender if that happens, Broeksmit wrote.

 “The dramatic price volatility in the market for agency mortgage-backed securities [MBS] over the past week is leading to broker-dealer margin calls on mortgage lenders’ hedge positions that are unsustainable for many such lenders.”

Now, with lenders getting crushed on these hedges, they’re facing a wave of demands from brokers that they sell holdings or put more money in their trading accounts.

 

“Broker-dealers’ margin calls on mortgage lenders reached staggering and unprecedented levels by the end of the past week,” Broeksmit wrote.

“The inability of a large set of responsibly-managed lenders to meet these margin calls would jeopardize the very objective of the Federal Reserve’s agency MBS purchases – the smooth functioning of both the primary and secondary mortgage markets.”

Some lenders, the letter exclaimed, may not be able to meet their margin calls in a day or two, and Barry Habib, founder of MBS Highway, a leading industry advisor who was among the first to publicly sound the alarm bell last week, warned ominously:

“This is a collapse of the system… It’s as simple as the Fed stops buying for a period of time.”

The MBA, whose members underpin the housing market, asked the watchdogs to issue guidance directing brokers to work constructively with lenders.

Additionally, as Bloomberg notes, the surge in margin calls is also inflicting major pain on commercial real estate with the threat of widespread loan defaults prompting a wave of selling of commercial mortgage-backed securities. Colony Capital’s CEO Tom Barrack reiterated his desperate pleas for a bailout on Sunday calling for a moratorium on margin calls and Fed buying to halt the sell-off for bonds tied to commercial properties.

So – to sum up the America we live in:

  • MBS – Residential mortgage lenders have been crushed from hedging-implosions thanks to massive, unprecedented Fed buying in their market… and are demanding The Fed stop buying and offer them a bailout.
  • CMBS/ABS – mREITs and funds have been crushed by a liquidity squeeze on their over-levered, borrow-short-lend-long-get-rich-quick plan (supported by endless Fed liquidity and rates suppression)… and are now demanding The Fed buy even more, lift accounting rules, and vanquish all margin calls.

Moral hazard and unintended consequences are everywhere as America’s elite refuse to let this crisis go to waste.

end
Now a second USA aircraft carrier is facing a coronavirus outbreak among its crew
(zerohedge)

Second US Aircraft Carrier Is Facing A COVID-19 Outbreak Among Crew

After late last week the USS Theodore Roosevelt diverted from its mission in the Western Pacific in order for its 5,000 crew to disembark in Guam to be quarantined due to coronavirus outbreak among sailors, now at at least 38 cases, a second Navy aircraft carrier is dealing with a potential outbreak in its midst.

Over the weekend Fox News cited unnamed US officials to report that the USS Ronald Reagan aircraft carrier has two sailors who have recently tested positive for Covid-19.

 

USS Ronald Reagan, via Wiki Commons

This as a major naval station in Japan has already gone on lockdown over cases on the base itself.

Military newspaper Stars & Stripes, which also reported the two cases aboard the USS Ronald Reagan, on Monday noted the base spent the weekend on lockdown:

The Yokosuka base entered a third day of lockdown Monday to mitigate spread of the virus following the three positive test results announced last week. Base commander Capt. Rich Jarrett instructed non-essential personnel to stay home and instructed residents to shelter in place “until further notice.”

The Reagan is permanently forward deployed out of the base, US Fleet Activities Yokosuka.

Few details were given over the USS Ronald Reagan and its two reported cases, also as the Navy has begun a policy of restricting its coronavirus numbers to only publicly reporting branch-wide cases.

But the Reagan could be the next disaster in the making, give the Roosevelt sent Navy top brass scrambling for a solution, which was to drastically divert the ship to US bases at Guam in order to isolate and test all 5,000 crew members.

Of that massive and disruptive effort the the Daily Beast reported: “But in Guam on Wednesday, both Navy and Marine Corps service members set up roughly 140 military beds in a basketball gymnasium.”

 

Naval Base Guam, via US Navy

The report continuned: “To squeeze more troops into the gym, Navy medical professionals recommended measuring the six-foot distance per guidance from the CDC from the center of the bed rather than from the outer edges, meaning, that the beds are actually 3-feet apart.”

Only a week prior to Sunday’s report of 38 USS Roosevelt crew being positive, merely three had been confirmed for Covid-19. The numbers are expected to rise as the Navy awaits testing on all crew members, and as another potential outbreak looms for the USS Ronald Reagan.

iv) Swamp commentaries)

 

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

Trump says $2.2 trillion coronavirus stimulus could balloon to $6.2 trillion – The Federal Reserve and Treasury to use financial leverage on financing programs that could be worth $4 trillion

https://justthenews.com/government/white-house/62-trillion-trump-misstates-cost-historic-stimulus-bill-signing#.Xn6fNYt3_xQ.twitter

The Imperial College team that fomented the global Covid-19 panic slashed their projected 500k UK deaths (2.2m in US) to 20k last week.  On Saturday, they reduced their UK fatality forecast – to 5700!  https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/coronavirus-lockdown-is-on-course-to-reduce-total-death-rate-3gn7hfjzk

Hundreds of doctors globally report great success in treating Covid-19 with Chloroquine.  The FDA, CDC, the MSM and some Dem governors assert there is no trial proof that Chloroquine works.  Yet the same suspects fervently promote ONE research paper and create a global panic and possible depression.

@ScottGottliebMD: This is GAME CHANGER. Abbott to market, starting next week, a fast point-of-care coronavirus test, delivering positive results in 5min and negative results in 13min. Will deliver 50K tests/day to start. Kudos to Abbott and FDA’s Jeff Shuren and team at CDRH who are in the fight.

Second French Study by Dr. Raoult finds Hydroxychloroquine and Azithromycin Helped EVERY PATIENT in Study Group of 80 Minus One  https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/03/huge-second-french-study-by-dr-raoult-finds-hydroxychloroquine-and-azithromycin-helped-every-patient-in-study-group-of-80-minus-one-video/

France is now recommending Zithro and HPQ for Covid-19 treatment.  Several Trump-deranged US governors have banned HPQ and Chloroquine for Covid-19.  [More below]

UK PM Boris Johnson and UK Health Minister Hancock have Covid-19 with mild symptoms.

CNBCnow [17 min. before close]: United Airlines warns aid isn’t enough to avoid workforce cuts

[Just like Fed QE and its other promiscuous schemes, fiscal stimulus is never enough for some.]

The Fed contributed to the late Friday tumble.  The Fed announced it will reduce QE next week from $75B per day (Monday through Wednesday) to $60B per day on April 2-3.  Due to the Fed’s gluttonous QE, dealers are running out of securities to repo.  The Law of Unintended Consequences strikes again!

After the close, Trump ordered GM to make ventilators under the Defense Production Act.

@realDonaldTrump: As usual with “this” General Motors, things just never seem to work out. They said they were going to give us 40,000 much needed Ventilators, “very quickly”. Now they are saying it will only be 6000, in late April, and they want top dollar. Always a mess with Mary B. Invoke “P”.

    General Motors MUST immediately open their stupidly abandoned Lordstown plant in Ohio, or some other plant, and START MAKING VENTILATORS, NOW!!!!!!  FORD, GET GOING…

 

As it should, the dollar cratered more on Friday.  The cascading dollar is starting to weigh on US bonds.  Foreigners cannot afford to hold miniscule-rate coupons in a currency that is declining sharply.

For the past 38 years, financial market operators and investors have played in a low-inflation environment.  This condition allowed governments to run astronomic fiscal deficits and central banks to monetized tens of trillions of dollars in global debt.  This two-score scheme could be ending.

Unless you navigated the Seventies, you lack experience in a market in which the dollar tumbled, inflation roared and bond yields soared.  The unfathomable crisis will appear when the bond bubble bursts.  Central banks and governments will have to choose between saving their bonds or their currency.

Rasmussen: Republicans (61%) are much more confident than Democrats (28%) and voters not affiliated with either major party (32%) that the country can end many coronavirus measures and get back to work by Easter [Repubs want the economy up & running; Dems want a recession or worse.]

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/current_events/disease/61_of_republicans_see_america_getting_back_on_its_feet_by_easter

NYT, March 1, 2020: A Virus Spreads, Stocks Fall, and Democrats See an Opening to Hit Trump

A slowdown could hamstring Mr. Trump’s re-election prospects [MSM fear mongering then went into overdrive.] https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/01/business/economy/trump-democrats-coronavirus-economy.html

 

Dr. Birx to media: Stop frightening Americans – asks media to stop telling Americans that hospitals are running out of beds and ventilators, when it’s not the case  https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/coronavirus/dr-birx-media-stop-frightening-americans#.Xn4ZQ-c593g.twitter

@realDonaldTrump: Thousands of Federal Government (delivered) Ventilators found in New York storage. N.Y. must distribute NOW! [The MSM still bashes DJT for NY not having enough vents!]

@lawyer4laws: Cuomo: “Hospitals don’t need Ventilators yet.” Reporter asks Cuomo if they have ventilators in storage like Trump said: “That is incorrect and grossly uninformedWe have ventilators in a stockpile and we didn’t send to the hospitals yet.” [Is Cuomo the guy hoarding toilet paper?!]

https://twitter.com/lawyer4laws/status/1243652553830805504

Surgeon General: Urban hotspots Detroit, Chicago, New Orleans to get worse coronavirus next week – Analysts say Dallas, Houston and Philadelphia could also face rapid spread soon.

https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/coronavirus/surgeon-general-urban-hotspots-detroit-chicago-new-orleans-get-worse#.Xn415AyHlbA.twitter

When CNN’s Wolf Blitzer asked New Orleans Mayor LaToya Cantrell why she did not cancel the world-famous Mardi Gras Parade, she blamed the federal government for not commanding her to cancel it.

https://www.breitbart.com/clips/2020/03/26/new-orleans-mayor-on-coronavirus-trump-admin-should-have-warned-us-to-stop-mardi-gras/

NYC Health Commissioner Oxiris Barbot on Feb. 2: “Your [coronavirus] risk is low and our preparedness as a city is high. There is no reason not to take the subway, not to take the bus, not to go out to your favorite restaurant and certainly not to miss the parade [Chinese Lunar New Year] next Sunday.  https://twitter.com/JackPosobiec/status/1243413067234308096?s=09

    

NYC Mayor De Blasio 3/10: “We want to encourage” [people to go out]. “If you’re under 50 and you’re healthy, which is most NYersthere’s very little threat here. This disease, even if you were to get it, basically acts like a common cold or flu. And transmission is not that easy… It takes direct person-to person contact to be transmitted…Even if we found a case, we aren’t shutting our schools… People’s livelihoods are at stake…We cannot shut down because of undue fear…This is a crisis that has been ongoing for two months…” https://www.msnbc.com/morning-joe/watch/de-blasio-new-york-can-t-shut-down-over-undue-fear-80390725536

How NYC’s Trump Opposition [TDS] Led to City Becoming America’s Coronavirus Epicenter

In the weeks after Trump banned travel from China to the United States, New City Mayor De Blasio called on New Yorkers to defy the administration and attend large gatherings, specifically the Chinese New Year celebration in Chinatown… https://news.grabien.com/story-how-nycs-trump-opposition-led-city-becoming-americas-coronav

How Mayor De Blasio Botched NYC’s Response to COVID-1

As the suburbs immediately surrounding the city succeeded in quelling outbreaks of their own, de Blasio dithered and put off critical decisions.  The result was he waited too long to close schools and way too long to close restaurants and other “non-essential” businesses… “The virus was first reported in New York City on March 1… a health care worker who had been infected in Iran…” – Politico

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/how-bill-de-blasio-botched-nycs-response-covid-19

CNN on Sunday and confronted de Blasio with a montage of his pleas to NYers to ignore Covid-19.

The mayor on CNN’s “State of the Union” was confronted with a series of clips of him calmly insisting Big Apple residents should carry on with their regular lives, with the last just two weeks ago on March 13…. Tapper asked bluntly, “In retrospect, is that message at least in part to blame for how rapidly the virus has spread across the city?”… https://nypost.com/2020/03/29/de-blasio-tries-to-deflect-blame-for-rapid-spread-of-coronavirus-in-nyc/

@RealCandaceO: NYC wants us to believe coronavirus has overwhelmed their health care system, not the fact that 16 hospitals in NYC have closed since 2003 due to the state cutting Medicaid reimbursements.

NYC judge frees alleged murderer out of concern he’ll catch coronavirus

https://nypost.com/2020/03/27/nyc-judge-frees-alleged-murderer-out-of-concern-hell-catch-coronavirus/

Cuomo: ‘New York State Is Basically Bankrupt’ – I have to raise taxes or slash education funding.  And you’re going to see education cut all across this state.”…

https://gellerreport.com/2020/03/cuomo-new-york-state-is-basically-bankrupt.html/

 

For the past few years, four Big Blue states have led the league in citizen flight.  These states, which are financial disaster zones, are having significant Covid-19 problems.  Governors have shutdown many businesses.  Covid-related actions will increase urban and Blue State flight, which erodes their tax bases.  Remaining citizens will demand significant increases in healthcare facilities and preparedness.

Recessions and crises instigate consciousness of unpleasant realities.  Lenders foreclose on businesses and loans; businesses cut expenses.  Investors that insouciantly held debt on entities that had little or no chance to repay the debt stop buying more of the debt and liquidate debts.  This means the self-induced depression that some big states will endure could engender bankruptcies and debt reorganizations. This would force government entities to severely cut expenses, pension benefits, etc.

State and municipal debt reorganization will be a difficult, politically wrought crisis.  It will pit Flyover America and Red States against coastal states and Big Blue States.  It will pit Blue State non-urban citizens against the Big Blue Cities (NYC, Chicago, LA et al)  .

@GovMikeDeWine [Ohio]: I think when we come out of this, one of the lessons we are learning as a country is that we have to invest more public health… The second lesson is that we never want to be in a position where we can’t buy very important medical equipment in this country. We have to source this equipment in this country.

 

@jsolomonReports: Senate Homeland and Governmental Affairs chairman Ron Johnson says after coronavirus subsides he plans to open probe into why America was so woefully unprepared for pandemic. No tested medicines. Low supplies. How did it happen? [Bad news for some big-city pols!]

CNN: In at least 10 government reports from 2003 to 2015, federal officials predicted the United States would experience a critical lack of ventilators and other lifesaving medical supplies if it faced a viral outbreak…  https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/27/cnn10/ventilators-supply-government-warnings-coronavirus-invs/index.html

Harvard economist Ed Glaeser: I could easily imagine that we start seeing joblessness numbers that look a lot more like the Great Depression…I believe very strongly in relief right now, policies that stop economic Armageddon from spiraling out of control… some sort of a moratorium on foreclosures is perfectly sensible. Doing a few things that would slow down any sort of bankruptcy proceedings for any particular companies is probably the right thing… It’s right to ignore nonsensical orders from the government — during a pandemic, having a government that you trust is really valuable…

    I think there were enough warning signs — SARS 17 years ago, swine flu 2009, MERS eight years ago, Ebola over the years — there were more than enough warning signs that something like this was a real possibility this thing has the capacity to do trillions and trillions of dollars of damage. And so it’s worthwhile spending at least billions and billions of dollars to actually protect ourselves to mitigate future risks… So right now, suburban life looks relatively good, relative to high-density urban living during the height of the pandemic…  https://freakonomics.com/podcast/covid-19-cities/

@BernardKerik: Dr. Fauci told President Trump, and scared the hell out of the country that the coronavirus will cause a 3% mortality rate. Now he’s saying it will be close to seasonal flu 0.01%!

NIH’s Fauci on coronavirus: ‘The risk group is very, very clear’   March 9, 2020

That’s where you get the report from WHO that it’s somewhere between a 2% and 3% case fatality rate

https://www.fiercehealthcare.com/practices/fauci-offers-update-coronavirus-to-jama-for-clinicans

Dr. Fauci backtracks on deadliness of virus – COVID-19’s death rate was twice that of the common flu, making it roughly 0.28 percent…  https://www.oann.com/dr-anthony-fauci-backtracks-on-deadliness-of-virus/

CDC weekly influenza report (3/21/20): CDC estimates that so far this season there have been at least 39 million flu illnesses, 400,000 hospitalizations and 24,000 deaths from flu. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm

 

The Ibuprofen Debate Reveals the Danger of Covid-19 Rumors – furor over whether it’s safe to use the fever reducer reveals how people are sharing incomplete—and sometimes bad—information…

    A letter in The Lancet Respiratory Medicine… theorized that higher rates of expression of a particular enzyme, known for short as ACE2, might be raising the risk of coronavirus infection ibuprofen…as with the anti-inflammatory drugs given to chronic disease patients, can cause ACE2 to rise

https://www.wired.com/story/the-ibuprofen-debate-reveals-the-danger-of-covid-19-rumors/

Above-noted Lancet report: [SARS-CoV] and SARS-CoV-2 bind to their target cells through angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2), which is expressed by epithelial cells of the lung, intestine, kidney, and blood vessels… ACE2 can also be increased by thiazolidinediones and ibuprofen… treatment with ACE2-stimulating drugs increases the risk of developing severe and fatal COVID-19 https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(20)30116-8/fulltext

 

Urns in Wuhan far exceed death toll, raising more questions about China’s tally – A single mortuary has had 5,000 urns delivered over the past two days, double the city’s reported coronavirus death toll

http://shanghaiist.com/2020/03/27/urns-in-wuhan-far-exceed-death-toll-raising-more-questions-about-chinas-tally/

@jennfranconews: California Gov. Gavin Newsom has ordered a two-month halt on evictions for people who can’t pay their rent because of the coronavirus.  [How about a moratorium on real estate taxes?]

If individual or business tenants cannot pay rent or are given rent waivers, what happens to the underlying mortgages?  How long will it take for very large dominoes to fall in the $16T mortgage market?  What damage could this exact on some financial institutions?  There were very good reasons to be disturbed or frightened during the 2008-2009 crisis.  It is more disturbing and frightening now.  The odds of something worse than a severe recession have not been higher for many decades.

@MarkNewtonCMT: SPX has now retraced 38.2% of this decline from mid-February, a nice 17.5% gift in 3 trading days… Breadth and volume weakened today vs Wednesday

@Schuldensuehner: Just to put this week’s 18% bear market rally into perspective: S&P 500 bounced by 9%-19% six times between Sep and Dec2008, Goldman highlights.

https://twitter.com/Schuldensuehner/status/1243876529106563078?s=09

Trump issues order allowing Pentagon to activate retired troops to fight virus [as many as 1 million]

https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/coronavirus/trump-issues-order-allowing-pentagon-activate-retired-troops-fight#.Xn9Fj2MMcsY.twitter

@DrMattMcCarthy: CDC guidance on masks expected to change in next 10 days. Americans will be advised to wear masks in everyday life. Current recommendation is for high-risk groups only.

We’re old enough to remember when the CDC adamantly told Americans they shouldn’t wear masks.

CDC says surgical masks won’t protect you from the coronavirus   March 3, 2020

https://komonews.com/news/consumer/cdc-says-surgical-masks-wont-protect-you-from-the-coronavirus

Health Experts Are Telling Healthy People Not to Wear Face Masks for Coronavirus. So Why Are So Many Doing It? [Trust in institutions is rapidly diminishing.] https://time.com/5794729/coronavirus-face-masks/

WaPo: Trump says he is considering a quarantine on New York, parts of New Jersey & Connecticut

Cuomo voiced strong quarantine opposition. Trump later said the quarantine is not necessary.

@ABC: The CDC issues advisory: “Due to extensive community transmission of COVID -19 in the area, CDC urges residents of New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut to refrain from non-essential domestic travel for 14 days effective immediately.”   https://abcn.ws/39pp0bQ

At a Sunday afternoon presser, Cuomo said he supports travel restrictions but assured New Yorkers that “This is not a lockdown.”  He also said 1% or less” of those infected with the virus are dying.

Coronavirus pandemic exposes New York City’s vulnerabilities – The vast majority of cases in New York are in the city… The city’s density has helped aid the spread of the virus, according to health experts. There are 27,000 people per square mile, the densest metropolitan area in the U.S….

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/york-citys-vulnerabilities-focus-coronavirus-pandemics-epicenter/story

 

Cuomo on Saturday said the daily new hospital admission fell to 173 on Friday from Thursday’s 274 and ICU admissions decreased.  On Sunday, Cuomo extended the state shutdown to April 15.  On Sunday, de Blasio said churches or synagogues still holding public services could be permanently closed.

 

Law Prof. Turley: Governors should focus on tackling coronavirus rather than shift blame [to DJT]

Some governors seem as eager to contain the blame as the coronavirus. Call it political distancing.

Even if Trump nationalized the crisis by deploying troops, imposing price controls, and forcing production of ventilators, the Constitution has left most police authority and public health safety to the states in our system of federalismthe federal authority of the president to act is much more limited than many appear to believe…he has no clear authority to lift state orders for citizens to stay at home…

https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/489968-governors-should-focus-on-tackling-coronavirus-rather-than-shift-blame

@lawyer4laws: Many Governors upon facing Coronavirus are panicking! Realizing they failed to plan for State/Cities Lifeboats. Ignoring Emergency Plans – saving $ by not purchasing known shortages of Ventilators & lessening hospital beds!

Trump administration adds firearms to federal list of critical pandemic infrastructure

https://nypost.com/2020/03/29/trump-administration-adds-firearms-to-federal-list-of-critical-pandemic-infrastructure/

 

@HowieCarrShow: N.J. Gov. Phil Murphy defends keeping armed guards while closing gun shops: ‘It is what it is’ – https://go.shr.lc/2QQvZ6Y

 

Italy Reports Second Straight Daily Drop in Coronavirus Deaths – BBG on Sunday

Coronavirus: Spain and Italy demand for more help from EU as death tolls soar

https://voiceofeurope.com/2020/03/coronavirus-spain-and-italy-demand-for-more-eu-help-as-death-tolls-soar/

German minister commits suicide after ‘coronavirus crisis worries’

Schaefer, who was Hesse’s finance chief for 10 years, had been working “day and night” to help companies and workers deal with the economic impact of the pandemic.

https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/german-minister-commits-suicide-after-coronavirus-crisis-worries/story-KyY6TBY19LYfRT4RNnta3M.html

On Sunday, Dr. Fauci said models predict 100k-200k Covid-19 deaths in the US – but the model is only as good as its assumptions. https://techcrunch.com/2020/03/29/fauci-how-many-coronavirus-deaths-in-us-estimate/

@Barnes_Law: # of deaths in NYC from coronavirus who did not also have another deadly disease that may have been the actual cause of their death? 15https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/dow

On Sunday, Trump said HCQ is being used on 1,100 NY patients and the FDA has fast-tracked approval for using plasma with antibodies from recovered coronavirus patients to treat seriously ill Covid-19 patients.  He extended, per Drs. Fauci & Birx advice, national social distancing guidelines through April 30 because the peak of Covid-19 deaths will occur over the next two weeks.  The CEO of Owens & Minor Inc. said that one of its customers had gone from using 10k to 20k masks a week to 200k to 300k. DJT: “How do you go from 10 to 20,000 masks to 300,000; something’s going on, and you ought to look into it, as reporters.”  The MSM slammed DJT for the charge; Cuomo made this charge on 3/6.

@EmeraldRobinson: Doctors: “Let’s try hydroxychloroquine – it seems to work!” Patients: “Take hydroxychloroquine – it works!”  The Media: “Don’t use hydroxychloroquine! Trump thinks it might work.” Michigan governor: “Don’t you dare use it!” Nevada governor:” Don’t you dare use it!”

 

“I’m Actually Ashamed She’s Our Governor” – COVID-19 Survivor Jim Santilli Blasts Michigan Governor for Banning Drug that Saved His Life  https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/03/exclusive-interview-im-actually-ashamed-shes-our-governor-covid-19-survivor-jim-santelli-blasts-michigan-governor-for-banning-drug-that-saved-his-life/

 

Former Congressman: [Gov] Gretchen Whitmer [Michigan] REJECTED My Offer of Facemasks

Whitmer’s office said that Bentivolio is not on the “approved list of contractors,”…

https://nationalfile.com/exclusive-former-congressman-gretchen-whitmer-rejected-my-offer-of-facemasks/

 

Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti urged LA residents to report anyone they see out on the street and [break the quarantine] personally confront those people for breaking the quarantine.

L.A. Mayor Garcetti Admits Using Cell Phone Tracking to Monitor Coronavirus Compliance… https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2020/03/27/l-a-mayor-eric-garcetti-admits-using-cell-phone-tracking-to-monitor-coronavirus-compliance/

Gov. Newsom gives Chief Justice broad powers during coronavirus – including the right to suspend laws during the coronavirus crisis…

https://ktla.com/news/california/gov-newsom-gives-chief-justice-broad-powers-during-coronavirus/?taid=5e7fc971e370aa00016236bd

Coronavirus Is Creating a Civil Liberties Crisis

Beyond the credibility gap, these orders are effectively death penalty verdicts for countless tens of thousands of small businesses and millions of jobs — all without any due process, equal protection or right to be heard… And what about the mental health and economic effects of throwing the nation’s seventh-largest economy out of work with potentially years of economic devastation to come?!….  https://dailycaller.com/2020/03/27/dhillon-coronavirus-is-creating-a-civil-liberties-crisis/

 

We’re off and running with the lawsuits.  Brooklyn lawyer sues Cuomo over coronavirus orders

Claiming his executive order prohibiting large gatherings… violates his rights to free speech and to observe his Jewish faith…  https://nypost.com/2020/03/27/brooklyn-lawyer-sues-cuomo-over-coronavirus-orders/

 

If COVID-19 Models Are Unreliable, What Does This Mean For Climate Models?

https://issuesinsights.com/2020/03/27/if-the-covid-19-models-are-wrong-what-does-this-mean-for-climate-models/

 

The destruction of civil rights and liberties for individuals and businesses over Covid-19 are supposed to be temporary.  Climate change encumbrances are intended to be permanent.

 

Biden consolidates support, but trails badly in enthusiasm: Poll

Strong enthusiasm for Biden among those who back him over Trump is just 24%.

More than twice as many of Trump’s supporters are highly enthusiastic about supporting him, 53%…

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/biden-consolidates-support-trails-badly-enthusiasm-poll/story

On Friday: @SteveGuest: Biden says he’d allow travel to & from countries that don’t have coronavirus under control? “Once we get this under control, there’s still going to be nations around the world that don’t… we’re going to have to make sure that travel to those countries to & from CAN occur.”

https://twitter.com/SteveGuest/status/1243666776082321408

Joe Biden mistakenly calls the Wuhan coronavirus the “Luhan” virus https://twitter.com/TrumpWarRoom/status/1243686891368722437

Only 632 People Watch Joe Biden’s Coronavirus Town Hall on YouTube

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/03/only-632-people-watch-sleepy-joe-bidens-coronavirus-town-hall-on-youtube/

@RNCResearch: Asked [By CNN’s Anderson Cooper] about the Obama administration’s pandemic preparation failures, Biden claims “I was not part of it”  https://youtu.be/ylrSqo6ZzJ4

Vice President Joe Biden’s Remarks on Swine Flu Draw Criticism – Dems hustle to temper the criticism aimed at VP’s swine flu advice. April 30, 2009— Democrats hustled to temper Vice President Joe Biden’s comments today that he would advise his family to avoid flying or being in confined spaces because of concerns about swine flu, a comment that drew criticism from the travel industry…  https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/story?id=7470281&page=1

@KelemenCari: The Kennedy Center Timeline: Completes a $250 M renovation

2019: Receives $41 M from taxpayers; Yesterday: Gets $25 M from Relief Bill

Today [Saturday]: Tells musicians it will stop paying them; Donates $5 M to the DNC – The Kennedy Center launders taxpayer money for the Democrats.

NYT op-ed by Rosie Spinks, Feb 5, 2020: Who Says It’s Not Safe to Travel to China?

The coronavirus travel ban is unjust and doesn’t work anyway. [Spinks is a London travel journalist]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/05/opinion/china-travel-coronavirus.html

Pelosi appeared on CNN on Sunday to slam Trump over Covid-19 – probably because Trump’s approval ratings are jumping higher.  However, Pelosi invited Trump supporters to blame the damage from Covid-19 on Pelosi & Dems’ impeachment fixation in December & the critical month of January.

@dcexaminer: Pelosi: “As the President fiddles, people are dying.” @SpeakerPelosi says she wants to know what @realDonaldTrump knew about coronavirus and when he knew it, in an “after-action” investigation. [Obviously impeachment language]  https://twitter.com/dcexaminer/status/1244252749610602497

Graham calls Pelosi’s comment on Trump the “most shameful statement by politician in modern history” – Graham accused Pelosi of being the “the first politician to blame another politician for people dying… This is the same speaker of the House who held up the bill in the Senate for days because she wanted same-day voting, she wanted carbon neutrality for the airlines…it’s the most shameful, disgusting thing I have heard.”…https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/490068-graham-pelosi-comment-on-trump-is-most-shameful-statement-by-politician-in

@DonaldJTrumpJr: What were Pelosi & Dems were focused on when the Coronavirus pandemic began?… 100% of their political energy was focused on impeaching & removing Trump from office

The Impeachment That Killed Americans [Time table of events]

Instead of dealing with the virus, Dems focused on getting Trump. When will Pelosi and Adam Schiff and the impeachment Democrats be held accountable for… impeachment politics that has now proved fatal to almost a hundred Americans?  https://spectator.org/the-impeachment-that-killed-americans/

@SpeakerPelosi Jan 31: The Trump Admin’s expansion of its un-American travel ban is a threat to our security, our values and the rule of law… the House will bring the NO BAN Act to the Floor to… limit the President’s ability to impose such biased and bigoted restriction. 

@tomselliott: Pelosi, touring San Fran’s Chinatown Feb. 24: “We do want to say to people, come to Chinatown, here we are … come join us”  https://twitter.com/tomselliott/status/1244367217912881160

 

Former Sen. Tom Coburn, a champion of smaller government, dies at 72

Former Oklahoma senator highlighted misspending with annual waste book.

https://justthenews.com/government/congress/former-sen-tom-coburn-champion-smaller-government-dies-72#.Xn9i79TKEF8.twitter

 

Sen. Coburn was a long-time King Report reader.  Our condolences to his family, friends and associates

Well that is all for today

I will see you TUESDAY night.

 

One comment

  1. Thank you Harvey!

    Like

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