MAY 5//GOLD DONW $1.65 TP $1704.00//SILVER UP 17 CENTS/COMEX GOLD DELIVERIES: 26 TONNES//CORONAVIRUS UPDATES //CHINA VS USA WAR OF WORDS ESCALATE AS TO THE ORIGINS OF THE CORONAVIRUS//TRUMP TURBOCHARGES HIS FORCES AS HE WILL BRING MANUFACTURING BACK FROM CHINA BACK TO THE USA//MICHAEL SNYDER..IMPORTANT READ FOR TONIGHT//SWAMP STORIES//

GOLD:$1704.00  DOWN $1.65   The quote is London spot price

 

 

 

 

 

Silver:$14.98  UP 17 CENTS

 

Closing access prices:  London spot

 

i)Gold : $1708.00  LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

 

ii)SILVER:  $14.97//LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

CLOSING FUTURES PRICES:  KEY MONTHS

 

MAY COMEX GOLD:  1704.20 1:30 PM

JUNE GOLD:  $1710.50  CLOSE 1.30 PM//   SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE JUNE: $6.50.//PREMIUMS WENT UP AGAIN

 

CLOSING SILVER FUTURE MONTH

SILVER APRIL COMEX CLOSE: XXX

SILVER MAY COMEX CLOSE;   $15.06…1:30 PM.//SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE MAY:  8 CENTS  PER OZ//PREMIUMS UP AGAIN

 

 

the gold market continues to be broken as future prices are much higher than spot prices.  The comex is desperate to fix things but they have no available gold.

If one is to buy gold and or gold coins, the price is around $2800. usa per oz

and silver; $31.00 per oz//

 

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN: YOU ARE NOW WITNESSING FIRST HAND THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN PAPER GOLD/SILVER AND THE REAL PHYSICAL STUFF!!

DO NOT PAY ANY ATTENTION TO WHAT THE CROOKS ARE DOING AT THE COMEX AND LONDON LBMA..PHYSICAL IS THE NAME OF THE GAME AND NOTHING ELSE

 

COMEX DATA

 

 

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING:  158/399

issued 392

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: MAY 2020 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,706.900000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 05/04/2020 DELIVERY DATE: 05/06/2020
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
072 C GOLDMAN 5
118 H MACQUARIE FUT 60
152 C DORMAN TRADING 3
323 H HSBC 11
355 C CREDIT SUISSE 11
624 C BOFA SECURITIES 9
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 23
661 C JP MORGAN 392 158
686 C INTL FCSTONE 7
690 C ABN AMRO 2 80
732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 4
737 C ADVANTAGE 4 6
800 C MAREX SPEC 1 5
905 C ADM 17
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 399 399
MONTH TO DATE: 3,502

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  MAY CONTRACT: 399 NOTICE(S) FOR 39,900 OZ (1.2410 tonnes)

 

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  3502 NOTICES FOR 350,200 OZ  (10.892 TONNES)

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR MAY

 

 

1022 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR  5,110,000  OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month: 6529 for 32,630,000 oz

 

BITCOIN MORNING QUOTE  $8856 DOWN  14 

 

BITCOIN AFTERNOON QUOTE.: $8916 UP $46

 

GLD AND SLV INVENTORIES:

WITH GOLD DOWN $1.65: AND NO PHYSICAL TO BE FOUND ANYWHERE:

WITH ALL REFINERS CLOSED//MEXICO ORDERING ALL MINES SHUT:   WHERE ARE THEY GETTING THE “PHYSICAL”?

 

A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY//

 

A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 3.81 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//

 

GLD: 1,071.71 TONNES OF GOLD//

 

 

WITH SILVER UP 17 CENTS TODAY: AND WITH NO SILVER AROUND

 

NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV///

 

RESTING SLV INVENTORY TONIGHT:

SLV: 413.124  MILLION OZ./

 

 

 

 

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Let us have a look at the data for today

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

IN SILVER THE COMEX OI FELL  BY A SMALL SIZED 288 CONTRACTS FROM 132,118 DOWN TO 131,830 AND FURTHER FROM OUR NEW RECORD OF 244,710, (FEB 25/2020. THE SMALL SIZED LOSS IN OI OCCURRED WITH  OUR 5 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. IT SEEMS THAT THE LOSS IN COMEX OI IS DUE TO STRONG  BANKER SHORT COVERING PLUS A SMALL EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE, CONSIDERABLE LONG LIQUIDATION, ACCOMPANYING  A SMALLER SILVER OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR MAY. WE HAD A NET LOSS IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 2231 CONTRACTS  (SEE CALCULATIONS BELOW).

 

 

 

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A STRONG AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A  GOOD SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE:   MARCH:  00 AND MAY: 0 AND JULY: 865  AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  865 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 865 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 865 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 4.325 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 5 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

7.32     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

2.630     MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOV.

20.970   MILLION OZ  FINAL STANDING IN DEC

5.075     MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JAN

1.480    MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN FEB

23.005  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAR

4.660  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR APRIL

45.965 MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING FOR MAY

 

MONDAY, AGAIN OUR CROOKS USED COPIOUS PAPER IN ORDER TO LIQUIDATE SILVER’S PRICE…AND THEY WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL 5 CENTS).. AND, OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS  WERE SOMEWHAT SUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE SOME AMOUNT OF SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR POSITIONS. THE LOSS AT THE COMEX WAS DUE TO: i)  A SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS 2) A SMALL LOSS OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR MAY, HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING  AND 4) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AS  WE DID HAVE A  NET GAIN OF 577 CONTRACTS OR 2.885 MILLION OZ ON THE TWO EXCHANGES! YOU CAN BET THE FARM THAT OUR BANKER  ARE DESPERATE TO LIQUIDATE THEIR HUGE SHORT POSITIONS IN SILVER

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY /FOR MONTH OF MAY:

3885 CONTRACTS (FOR 3 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 3885 CONTRACTS) OR 19.425 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1295 CONTRACTS OR 6.475 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF APRIL: 19.425 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 2.77% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

 

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2020 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          1,008.26 MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2020 EFP TOTALS SO FAR: 181.61 MILLION OZ

FEB 2020 EFP’S TOTAL :  ……     259.600 MILLION OZ

MARCH EFP’S …..                     452.280 MILLION OZ  //TOTALS//AND A NEW RECORD FOR THE MONTH)

APRIL EFP                               95.355 MILLION OZ.  (EX. FOR PHYSICALS BECOMING A LOT LESS)

MAY EFP SO FAR:                   19.425 MILLION OZ

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE FOR THE PAST 30 DAYS IS A LOT LESS.  NO DOUBT THAT THE COST TO CARRY THESE THINGS HAS EXPLODED AND AS SUCH CANNOT BE DONE AS FREQUENTLY AS BEFORE.

 

RESULT: WE HAD A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 288, WITH OUR 5 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ///MONDAY THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A GOOD SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 865 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER

 

TODAY WE GAINED A FAIR SIZED OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:  577 CONTRACTS (WITH OUR 5 CENT LOSS IN PRICE)

 

THE TALLY//EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

i.e 865 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH A SMALL SIZED DECREASE OF 288 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 5 CENT LOSS IN PRICE OF SILVER/ AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $14.81 // MONDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY. 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 0.7050 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 100.7% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW  MAR DELIVERY MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 1022 NOTICE(S) FOR  5,110,000 OZ OF SILVER.

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018. AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.70//TODAY’S RECORD OF 244,705 IS SET WITH A PRICE OF: 18.91 (FEB 25/2020)

 

.

 

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 10.025 MILLION OZ/ SEPT 43.030 MILLION OZ//OCT: 7.665 MILLION OZ//   NOV: 2.630 MILLION OZ//DEC:  20.970 MILLION OZ; JAN:  5.075 MILLION OZ.//FEB 1.480 MILLION OZ//MAR: 23.005 MILLION OZ/APRIL 4.660 MILLION OZ//MAY  45.900 MILLION OZ
  2. THE  RECORD PRIOR TO TODAY WAS SET IN FEB 25/2018:  244,710 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $18.90//.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

 

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 

GOLD

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 245 CONTRACTS TO 490,122 AND CLOSER TO OUR NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE SMALL SIZED GAIN OF COMEX OI OCCURRED WITH OUR CONSIDERABLE COMEX GAIN IN PRICE  OF $12.00 /// COMEX GOLD TRADING// MONDAY// WE  HAD CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING , A VERY STRONG INCREASE IN GOLD OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX, ALONG WITH ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION ACCOMPANYING A GOOD  EX. FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. THIS ALL HAPPENED WITH OUR GAIN IN THE PAPER PRICE OF GOLD.

WE HAD 0 ISSUANCE OF OUR NEW 4 GC CONTRACT

 

WE GAINED A SMALL SIZED 868 CONTRACTS  (2.699 TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

 

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

 

 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 623 CONTRACTS:

CONTRACTS, FEB>  CONTRACTS; MARCH 00 APRIL: 0. MAY: 0, AND JUNE 623.; DEC 0 AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO//TOTAL: 623.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 490.879. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 868 CONTRACTS: 245 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 623 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 868 CONTRACTS OR 2.699 TONNES. MONDAY, WE HAD A  GAIN OF $12.00 IN GOLD TRADING……

AND WITH THAT GAIN IN  PRICE, WE HAD A CONSIDERABLE SIZED GAIN IN  TOTAL/TWO EXCHANGES GOLD TONNAGE OF 2.699 TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS/OFFICIAL SECTOR WERE SUPPLYING INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER WITH RECKLESS ABANDON. THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE (IT ROSE $12.00). AND IT ALSO SEEMS THAT THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE ANY GOLD LONGS FROM THE GOLD ARENA WAS UNSUCCESSFUL  (SEE BELOW).

4 GC ISSUANCE:  0

 

END

 

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:

WE HAD  A FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS  (623) ACCOMPANYING THE SMALL GAIN IN COMEX OI  (245 OI): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES:  868 CONTRACTS.  WE NO DOUBT HAD 1 )HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING, 2.)A STRONG INCREASE IN OUNCES STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR THE FRONT MAY MONTH,  3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AND  …ALL OF THIS WAS COUPLED WITH THAT GOOD GAIN IN GOLD PRICE TRADING//MONDAY

 

SPREADING OPERATIONS

 

OUR SPREADING OPERATION HAS NOW SWITCHED INTO GOLD…..

SPREADING OPERATION FOR OUR NEWCOMERS:

WE HAVE NOW COMMENCED IN SILVER THE ILLEGAL SPREADING OPERATION \ FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS:

 

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW STOPPED IN SILVER AS THEY NOW BEGIN TO MORPH INTO GOLD AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW FRONT MONTH WILL BE JUNE.

 

 

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEW, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE SPREADERS AND THE CRIMINAL ELEMENT BEHIND IT:

 HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

 

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR SILVER..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR GOLD.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

 

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

.

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO GOLD AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX SILVER OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE FOR GOLD:

 

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF MAY. BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN GOLD WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JUNE), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

 

 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2020 INCLUDING TODAY

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF MAY : 5988 CONTRACTS OR 598,800 oz OR 18.625 TONNES (3 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 2683 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

 

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 3 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 18.625 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2019, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 18.625/3550 x 100% TONNES =0.522% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD HAS DISSIPATED THIS MONTHTHE COST TO THE BANKERS TO CARRY THESE CONTRACTS IN LONDON IS BECOMING TOO GREAT FOR THEM.

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2020 TO DATE   2584.98  TONNES

JANUARY 2220 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE; : 570.19 TONNES

FEB 2020 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE :            653.78 TONNES

 

MARCH TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE                1,098.93  TONNES  (*AND A NEW ALL TIME RECORD ISSUANCE//22 DAYS)

APRIL TOTAL EFP. ISSUANCE:               243.45  TONNES  (EFP ISSUANCE BECOMING A LOT LESS)

MAY TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                     18.625 TONNES

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 288 CONTRACTS FROM 132.118 DOWN TO 131,830 AND FURTHER FROM OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 3/4 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

ALL OF THE LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS DUE TO 1) STRONG BANKER SHORT COVERING , 2) THE ISSUANCE OF A SMALL SIZED NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (SEE BELOW), 3) A SMALL DECREASE IN SILVER OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR MAY  4) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION 

 

EFP ISSUANCE 865 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 FOR FEB. 0; FOR MAR  0:  AND MAY: 0 JULY: 865 CONTRACTS   AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 865 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI LOSS  OF 288 CONTRACTS TO THE 865 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A SMALL GAIN OF 577 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 2.885 MILLION  OZ!!! WITH THE 5 CENT LOSS IN PRICE///

 

 

RESULT: A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE 5 CENT LOSS IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// MONDAY. WE ALSO HAD A GOOD SIZED 865 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

 

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

(report Harvey)

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)TUESDAY MORNING/ MONDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED   //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 254.86 POINTS OR 1.08%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 574.34 POINTS OR 2.84%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 1.64%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed /Oil UP TO 22.57 dollars per barrel for WTI and 29.24 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED . OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.1238 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED//CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A SMALL 245 CONTRACTS TO 490,122 MOVING CLOSER TO  OUR  RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020).  AND THIS SMALL COMEX OI GAIN WAS SET WITH OUR STRONG GAIN OF $12.00 IN GOLD PRICING /MONDAY’S COMEX TRADING//). WE ALSO HAD A SMALL EFP ISSUANCE (623 CONTRACTS),.  THUS WE HAD 1) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AT THE COMEX AND 2)   ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AND 3)  ANOTHER STRONG INCREASE IN GOLD OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX //  APRIL/GOLD…  AS WE ENGINEERED A CONSIDERABLE GAIN ON TWO EXCHANGES OF 1625 CONTRACTS.

WE AGAIN HAD 0    4 -GC ISSUANCE

 

 

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A GOOD SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 623 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

 FEB: 0; MARCH 00 AND APRIL: 0, MAY: 0  JUNE : 623 AND 0 FOR DEC AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 623 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:  868 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 623 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A SMALL SIZED 245 COMEX CONTRACTS.  THE BANKERS PROVIDED ALL THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER TO WHICH OUR LONGS DUTIFULLY ACCEPTED AS THEY GOBBLED UP A GOOD AMOUNT OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WITH A HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING, ACCOMPANYING  STRONG INCREASE IN COMEX GOLD TONNAGE // STANDING FOR DELIVERY……(SEE CALCULATIONS BELOW). ALL OF THE ABOVE OCCURRED WITH A CONSIDERABLE RISE IN PRICE

 

THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT ROSE BY $12.00).  BUT, THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING ANY LONGS, AS THE TOTAL GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES REGISTERED 2.699 TONNES.

 

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES :: 868 CONTRACTS OR 86,800 OZ OR 2.699 TONNES. 

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT COMMODITY FUTURES OPEN INTEREST SHOULD APPROXIMATE 3% OF TOTAL PRODUCTION.  IN GOLD THE WORLD PRODUCES AROUND 3500 TONNES PER YEAR BUT ONLY 2200 TONNES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE WEST (THUS EXCLUDING RUSSIA, CHINA ETC..WHO KEEP 100% OF THEIR PRODUCTION)

THUS IN GOLD WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:  490,122 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS X 100 OZ PER CONTRACT = 49.01 MILLION OZ/32,150 OZ PER TONNE =  1525 TONNES

THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST REPRESENTS 1525/2200 OR 69.36% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF GOLD.

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 186,040 contracts

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY168,872 contracts// volumes very low

MAY 5/2020

MAY GOLD CONTRACT MONTH

 

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
128,604.000
oz
4,000 kilobars
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz 90,087.102 oz

Brinks

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

127,960.000

OZ

Malca

 

3980

KILOBARS

No of oz served (contracts) today
399 notice(s)
 39,900 OZ
(1.2410 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
4854 contracts
(485,400 oz)
15.09 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
3502 notices
350200 OZ
10.892 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

We had 1 deposits into the dealer

 

i) Into Dealer Brinks:  90,087.102 oz

 

total dealer deposits: 90,087.102   oz

total dealer withdrawals: 90,087.102 oz

we had 1 deposit into the customer account

i) Into Malca: 127,960.0000 oz  (3980 kilobars)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total deposits: 127,960.000   oz

 

 

we had 1 gold withdrawals from the customer account:

i) Out of Brinks: 128,604.00000 oz ( 4,000 kilobars)

 

 

 

 

total gold withdrawals; 128,604.00000   oz

We had 4  kilobar transactions  +

 

We had 0  4 KC bar transaction

 

 

 

ADJUSTMENTS: 3  

i) Out of Loomis:  12,827.850 oz was adjusted out of the dealer and this lands into the customer of Loomis:  399 kilobars

ii)  Out of Int Delaware:  37,809.576 oz was adjusted out of the customer account of Int Del and this lands into the dealer Int Delaware

iii) Out of JPMorgan:  9645.300 oz   was adjusted out of the customer account of JPMorgan and this lands into the dealer account of JPMorgan:  300 kilobars.

 

 

The front month of May registered a GIGANTIC total of 5253 oi contracts for a loss of 95 contracts. We had 216 notices filed upon yesterday so we gained 121 contracts or an additional 12,100 oz will stand as these guys refused to morph into London based forwards and thus negate a fiat bonus.

The next delivery month after May is the huge delivery month of June.  Here June saw a  loss OF 2521 contracts DOWN to 322,572 contracts. July has ANOTHER GAIN OF 22 OI contracts gain and thus 99 contracts  outstanding.  Next comes August another strong delivery month and here the OI ROSE by 2913 contracts up to 81,093 contracts.

 

 

We had 399 notices filed today for 39,900 oz

 

FOR THE  MAY 2020 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 392 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 399 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 158 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the MAY /2020. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (3502) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  May. (5253 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today (399 x 100 oz per contract) equals 835,600 OZ OR 25.9906 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this  non active month of May

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the May/2020 contract month:

No of notices served (3502)x 100 oz + 5253 OI) for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (399) x 100 oz which equals 835,600 oz standing OR 25.9906 TONNES in this non active delivery month. This is  a record amount for gold standing for any May delivery month or any non active delivery month.

We gained a 121 contracts or an additional 12,100 oz will seek out metal on this side of the pond.

 

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:  BRINKS

3027.500 OZ  REMOVED TO THE PLEDGED ACCOUNT JAN 10.2020/Brinks

144,088.952 oz NOW PLEDGED  JAN 21.2020/HSBC  5.4807 TONNES

3,468,643.910 oz PLEDGED  MARCH 2020  JPMORGAN:  10.788 TONNES

42,548.308.00 PLEDGED  APRIL 3/2020: SCOTIA:            1.3234 tonnes

TOTAL PLEDGED GOLD NOW IN EFFECT:  528,072.303  OZ OR 16.147  TONNES

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES…. WE HAVE 174.69 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS ie. 25.999 tonnes

CALCULATION OF REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SETTLED UPON:

total registered or dealer  6,144,564.381 oz or 191.12  tonnes
which  includes the following:
a) pledged gold held at HSBC   which cannot settled upon   144,088.952 oz x ( 4.4817 TONNES)//
b) pledged gold held at JPMorgan (added March 2020) which cannot be settled upon:  322,144.443 oz (or 10.0200 tonnes)
total pledged gold:
c)  pledged gold at Scotia: 1.3234 tonnes or 42,548.308 oz which cannot be settled  (1.3234 tonnes)
total weight of pledged:  528,072.303 oz or 16.147 tonnes
thus:
registered gold that can be used to settle upon: 5,616492.1  (174.69 tonnes)
true registered gold  (total registered – pledged tonnes  5,616492.1 (174.69 tonnes)
total eligible gold:  14,398,965.515 oz (447.868 tonnes)

total registered, pledged  and eligible (customer) gold;   20,682,479.132 oz 643.31 tonnes (INCLUDES 4 GC GOLD)

total 4 GC gold:   127.79 tonnes

total gold net of 4 GC:  515.52 tonnes

 

end

 

I have compiled  data with respect to registered (or dealer) gold taken on first day notice for each of the past 24 months

The data begins on first day notice for the May month taken on the last day of April 2018. and it continues to present day.  Thus 24 data entry points.

 

I then took, how many deliveries were recorded by the CME for each and every month.  I also included for reference the price of gold on first day notice.

 

The first graph is a logarithmic  graph and the second graph, linear.

You can see the huge explosion of registered gold at the comex along with deliveries.  Gold owners are very clear people.  They would know full well that

the gold at the comex is unallocated and that they would not be stupid enough to keep their gold at the comex especially in the registered category once deliveries are asked upon. If physical gold was present it would be have removed from the comex… It shows there is no gold at the comex.  They are just trading in sticky paper.

 

 

THE GOLD COMEX SEEMS TO BE  UNDER SEVERE ASSAULT FOR PHYSICAL

 

END

 

MAY 5/2020

And now for the wild silver comex results

Total COMEX silver OI FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 288 CONTRACTS FROM 132,118  DOWN TO 131,830(AND FURTHER TO OUR NEW ALL TIME RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON FEB 25.2020(244,710) ECLIPSING OUR PREVIOUS RECORD, AUGUST 25/2018 RECORD (244,196).  THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) . THE SMALL  OI COMEX LOSS TODAY OCCURRED WITH OUR 5 CENT LOSS IN PRICING//MONDAY.  THE LOSS IN TOTAL OI (TWO EXCHANGES) OCCURRED WITH 1)  A GOOD ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS 2) A GOOD INCREASE IN SILVER OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX, 3)  HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING , 4)SOME LONG LIQUIDATION, AND ALL OF THIS OCCURRED WITH OUR 5 CENT LOSS IN PRICE 

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY

THE FRONT DELIVERY OF MAY SAW A HUGE 3686 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS STANDING  AND THUS WE HAD A LOSS OF 160 CONTRACTS.  We had 18 notices filed yesterday so we LOST 142 contracts or an additional 710,000 oz will NOT stand at the comex as these guys morphed into London based forwards and received a fiat bonus for their efforts. It sure looks like we have a Harlem Globetrotter vs Washington Generals game on our hands. It looks like there is no silver over here and thus they must travel to London to get the stuff.

 

AFTER MAY WE HAVE THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF JUNE.  HERE JUNE SAW A GAIN OF 30 CONTRACTS FALLING TO 312.

AFTER JUNE COMES THE VERY BIG DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY AND HERE THE OI LOST 271 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 97,858 CONTRACTS

 

 

We, today, had  1022 notice(s) FILED  for 5,110,000, OZ for the APRIL, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

MAY 5/2020

MAY SILVER COMEX CONTRACT MONTH

Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 1,289,290.440 oz
CNT
Delaware
Scotia

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
1,242,588.610 oz
CNT
Loomis
No of oz served today (contracts)
1022
CONTRACT(S)
(5,110,,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
2663 contracts
 13,315,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  6529 contracts

32,630,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

i)we had 2 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:   0

ii)into CNT:  599,258.440 oz

iii) Into Loomis: 643,330.170 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017, 2018 and onward, has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 160.819 million oz of  total silver inventory or 51.08% of all official comex silver. (160.819 million/314.782 million

 

total customer deposits today: 1,242,588.610    oz

we had 3 withdrawals:

i) Out of Delaware:  26,813.27 oz

 

ii) Out of CNT:  60,944.710 oz

iii) Out of Scotia:  1,201,532.460 oz

 

 

total withdrawals;  1,289,290.440    oz

We had 1 adjustments:   dealer: to customer

i)from CNT:  9939.600 oz

 

 

 

total dealer silver:  89.450 million

total dealer + customer silver:  314.782 million oz

 

 

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The total number of notices filed today for the MAY 2020. contract month is represented by 1022 contract(s) FOR 5,110,000 oz

 

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in MAY we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 6529 x 5,000 oz = 32,630,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY.(3685) and the number of notices served upon today 1022 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the MAY/2019 contract month: 6529 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of MAY (3685)- number of notices served upon today (1022) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the MAY contract month.equals 45,960,000 oz.

We lost 142 or an additional 710,000 oz will seek out metal on the London side of the pond.

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME: 32,255 CONTRACTS //

 

 

FOR YESTERDAY: 42,384 CONTRACTS..,CONFIRMED VOLUME//extremely low volume

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 42,384 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 211 million  OZ 30.2% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

 

NPV for Sprott

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -0.30% ((MAY 5/2020)

2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV  FALLS TO -0.12% to NAV:   (MAY 5/2020 )

Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ 1.50%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 15.53 TRADING 15.47///NEGATIVE 0.40

END

 

 

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

MAY 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.65 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER ADDITION OF 3.81 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1071.71 TONNES

MAY 4//WITH GOLD UP $12.00 TODAY//A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE PAPER DEPOSIT OF 11.4 TONNES INTO THE GLD////GOLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 1067.90 TONNES

MAY 1/WITH GOLD UP $8.45 NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1056.50 TONNES

APRIL 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $15.95 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1056.50 TONNES

APRIL 29/WITH  GOLD DOWN $7.65/A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 8.19 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY REST AT 1056.50 TONNES//

APRIL 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.50//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1048.31 TONNES

APRIL 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.75//A HUGE  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 5.85 TONNES INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 1048.31 TONNES

APRIL 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.90 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 1042.46 TONNES

APRIL 23/WITH GOLD UP $10.00 TODAY:  NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 1042.46 TONNES

APRIL 22/WITH GOLD UP $40.75 TODAY:; TWO HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A)A MONSTROUS  3.8 PAPER TONNES WERE ADDED TO THE GLD INVENTORY AND B) ANOTHER HUGE 9.07 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD ADDED LATE IN THE DAY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1042.46 TONNES

APRIL 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $21.60 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MONSTROUS ADDITION OF 7.9 PAPER TONNES TO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1029.59 TONNES

APRIL 20//WITH GOLD UP $10.00 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1021.69 TONNES

APRIL 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $27.80 TODAY: SURPRISINGLY NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1021.69 TONNES TONNES..THE STRING OF 12 STRAIGHT STRONG DEPOSITS ENDS..

APRIL 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.50 TODAY: ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: A STRONG DEPOSIT OF 4.10 TONNES WAS ADDED TO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1021.69 TONNES/12TH STRAIGHT STRONG DEPOSIT

APRIL 15//WITH GOLD DOWN $19.10 TODAY; ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY; A STRONG 7.89 TONNES WAS ADDED TO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1117.59 TONNES.//11TH STRAIGHT STRONG DEPOSIT

APRIL 14/WITH GOLD UP $23.55 TODAY: ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: A STRONG 15.51 TONNES WAS ADDED TO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1009.70 TONNES//THIS IS THE 10TH STRAIGHT STRONG DEPOSIT//THIS IS A FRAUDULENT VEHICLE..THEY HAVE NO PHYSICAL GOLD IN THE TRUST..

APRIL 13//WITH GOLD UP $27.65 TODAY: ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: A STRONG 5.36 TONNES WAS ADDED TO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 994.19 TONNES

APRIL 9 WITH GOLD UP $37.30 TODAY: ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: A STRONG 2.92 TONNES WAS ADDED TO THE GLD//GOLD INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT..988.63 TONNES

APRIL 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $.60//ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY/;; A STRONG 1.45 TONNES WAS ADDED TO THE GLD/GOLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 985.71 TONNES

APRIL 7/WITH GOLD UP $.30: ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 5.27 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 984.26 TONNES

APRIL 6//WITH GOLD UP $32.00//ANOTHER STRONG DEPOSIT INTO THE GLD; A HUGE 7.02 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT : 978.99 TONNES

APRIL 3//WITH GOLD UP $7.80 TODAY//ANOTHER STRONG DEPOSIT OF 3.22 TONNES INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 971.97 TONNES

APRIL 2//WITH GOLD UP $31.80 TODAY: ANOTHER STRONG DEPOSIT OF 1.75 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 968.75 TONNES

APRIL 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.70 TODAY: ANOTHER CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.62 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 967.00 TONNES

MARCH 31//WITH GOLD DOWN $32.70//A MONSTROUS PAPER DEPOSIT OF 10.84 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 964.38 TONNES

MARCH 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.10 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 953.54 TONNES

MARCH 27.WITH GOLD DOWN $16.40: A BIG  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD  A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 4.39 TONES INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 953.54 TONES

MARCH 26//WITH GOLD UP $24.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 13.17 TONNES INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 949.15 TONNES

MARCH 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.40 TODAY//A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 11.99 TONES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY////INVENTORY RESTS AT 935.98 TONNES

MARCH 24//WITH GOLD UP $67.00 TODAY: A HUGE  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 15.80 TONNES OF GOLD INTO GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 923.99 TONNES..THIS PROVES THAT THE GLD IS A FRAUD AS LONDON SUSPENDED DELIVERY AS WELL AS ALL REFINERS.  THEY HAD NO WAY OF GETTING ANY PHYSICAL OZ INTO ITS INVENTORY//

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Inventory rests tonight at

MAY 5/ GLD INVENTORY 1071.71 tonnes*

IN LAST 813 TRADING DAYS:   +125.41 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD

 

LAST 713 TRADING DAYS://+300.55  TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

 

end

 

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

MAY 5/WITH SILVER UP 17 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 413.124 MILLION OZ///

MAY 4//WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY:2 HUGE PAPER CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.i).A  LARGE 1.399 MILLION OZ OF PAPER SILVER REMOVED FROM THE SLV//..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 411.427 MILLION OZ and ii) A LARGE 1.647 MILLION OZ OF PAPER SILVER ADDED TO THE SLV//  INVENTORY RESTS AT 413.124 MILLION OZ//


MAY 1/WITH SILVER FLAT IN PRICE: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 412.826 MILLION OZ///

APRIL 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 26 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 412.826 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 29/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 412.826 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 28 /WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 412.826 MILLION OZ..

APRIL 27/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT TODAY: TWO SMALL  CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: a) A WITHDRAWAL OF 373,000 OZ FORM THE SLV// b) A SECOND WITHDRAWAL OF 466,000: ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 412.826 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 24//WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 413.665 MILLION OZ

APRIL 23/WITH SILVER UP 0 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.891 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 413.665 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 22/WITH SILVER UP 42 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.865 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 410.774 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 21//WITH SILVER DOWN 60 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER ADDITION OF 1.398 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 412.639 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 20//WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.797 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 414.038 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS TODAY; A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.3999 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 415.437 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 16/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 415.437 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 15//WITH SILVER DOWN 45 CENTS TODAY: TWO HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV TWO HUGE DEPOSITS: A DEPOSIT OF 1.679 MILLION OZ AND ANOTHER 5.222 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 415.437 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 14./WITH SILVER UP 51 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A MASSIVE PAPER DEPOSIT OF XXX MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 408.536 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 13//WITH SILVER DOWN 29 CENTS TODAY;  A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A MASSIVE PAPER DEPOSIT OF 6.155 MILLION OZ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 408.536 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 9/WITH SILVER UP 60 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.84 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 402.381 MILLION OZ.

APRIL 8//WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 401.541 MILLION OZ///

APRIL 7/WITH SILVER UP 26 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 5.766 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 395.826 MILLION OZ

APRIL 6/WITH SILVER UP 50 CENTS TODAY: ANOTHER BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 395.826 MILLION OZ.

APRIL 3//WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 746,000 OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 395.826 MILLION OZ

APRIL 2/WITH SILVER UP 65 CENTS;  A SMALL CHANGE TODAY..A WITHDRAWAL OF .335 MILLION OZ TO PAY FOR FEES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 394.826 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 395.181 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 31/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 1.679 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.181 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 44 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 393.502 MILLION OZ.

MARCH 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A MONSTROUS PAPER DEPOSIT OF 8.115 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV../INVENTORY RESTS AT 393.502  MILLION OZ//

MARCH 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 385.387 MILLION OZ///

MARCH 25/WITH SILVER UP 44 CENTS TODAY: TWO HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: TWO DEPOSITS OF 7.369 MILLION OZ AND 2.239 MILLION OZ OF PAPER SILVER INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 385.387 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 24//WITH SILVER UP 100 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.779 MILLION OZ///

 

 

MAY 5.2020:

SLV INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT

413.124 MILLION OZ.

END

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES//GOLD LEASE RATES:

 

 

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.60/ and libor 6 month duration 0.70

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

GOLD LENDING RATE: – 1.90

gold lease negative//central banks calling in all gold leases//gold scarce

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 1.69%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 0.83

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = -.86

gold lease negative//central banks calling in all gold leases//gold scarce

end

 

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

 

 

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

The coronavirus has stopped all gold imports in India by 99.5%

(Bloomberg News)

India’s gold imports fell by 99.5% in April

 Section: 

By Shruti Srivastava and Swansy Afonso
Bloomberg News
Monday, May 4, 2020

India, the world’s biggest consumer of gold after China, imported its lowest monthly volumes in at least a decade after curbs to control the coronavirus pandemic grounded air transport and shuttered jewelry stores.

Overseas purchases slumped 99.5% to 60 kilograms in April from 13 tons a month ago, according to a person with knowledge of provisional finance ministry data, who asked not to be identified as the information isn’t public. That would be the lowest monthly inflow in records going back to 2010, according to data available with Metals Focus Ltd.

… 

Finance ministry spokesperson Rajesh Malhotra wasn’t immediately available for comment.

“I don’t expect a recovery in imports or demand for the next three to five months at least,” Chirag Sheth, a consultant at the London-based Metals Focus, said by phone from Mumbai. Manufacturing in the sector will also take a hit due to a scarcity of workers, who have returned to their hometowns after the virus outbreak, he said. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-04/gold-imports-by-india…

* * *

END

Iran is about to remove 4 zero from its currency the riyal. They are renaming the currency to the toman where one toman equals 10,000 rials.

Interesting enough, for years, the toman was a gold coin, denominated in 1/4 1/2 or full oz gold.

(London’s Financial Times/GATA)

Iran’s parliament backs move to remove 4 zeros from its currency

 Section: 

By Najmeh Bozorgmehr
Financial Times, London
Monday, May 4, 2020

Iran’s parliament has backed government plans to slash four zeros from the country’s currency, the rial, which has been battered by a fall in value as a result of US sanctions.

The move is intended to ease the psychological impact of soaring consumer prices on a population that has endured high inflation for decades and grappled with a dizzying number of zeros in government figures.

The currency will be renamed the toman, with one toman equal to 10,000 rials, or 100 gheran — another new currency denomination

Abdolnaser Hemmati, governor of Iran’s central bank, promised to implement the reform as soon as possible. “Currently our money has a horrifying difference with the euro and [one rial] equals E0.000006,” Mr. Hemmati told Iran’s parliament today. “The efficiency of the national currency has declined due to chronic inflation over five decades.” …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.ft.com/content/f9b8296e-dd89-4620-afa9-fe6a9ee532a3

end

How the USA can demand repayment from China for the coronavirus pandemic

Reuters/GATA

John Foley: America could actually shirk its debts to China

 Section: 

By John Foley
Reuters
Monday, May 4, 2020

NEW YORK — With all the economic damage China wrought by covering up Covid-19’s spread, why should Uncle Sam pay back the $1.1 trillion it owes the People’s Republic?

To do otherwise would cause market chaos, potentially trash the dollar’s status as a reserve currency and fail to slow the pandemic’s course. But President Donald Trump would find it surprisingly easy to effectively renege on those obligations. And as he sets out on a re-election campaign themed on blaming China for all his troubles, it’s only a matter of time before this bad idea gains wider traction.

… 

The bluntest way to void government borrowings from China is to default. That’s the financial-markets equivalent of a nuclear war.

It’s not easy. The Treasury can’t easily see who holds individual securities, which are mostly parked in accounts at Federal Reserve banks. China buys through intermediaries, many abroad.

Defaulting would send the $18 trillion Treasuries market into conniptions, just as Washington needs to borrow heavily. Default is also technically forbidden by the Constitution.

Still, where there’s a will there’s a way. While America can’t just refuse to pay its debts, it could instead create what amounts to a synthetic default that hits selected debtholders only. Trump could simply demand that banks halt any payments of interest or principal to any account held by a Chinese government counterparty.

Alternatively, he could freeze the assets. In extremis he could even demand they be seized. Think of it like sanctions, with China as the target. Trump could argue it’s not a default, since other holders of U.S. government debt would be paid. …

… For the remainder of the commentary:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-united-states-china-debt-breakingview…

end

Swiss gold refineries have now re opened.

(Reuters/GATA)

Swiss gold refineries reopen as virus lockdown eases

 Section: 

By Peter Hobson
Reuters
Monday, May 4, 2020

LONDON — Two of the world’s biggest gold refiners, Valcambi and Argor-Heraeus, are restoring almost all operations after Switzerland relaxed coronavirus lockdown measures, they said today.

The decisions end six weeks of partial or full closure that disrupted global gold supply and helped to drive prices in New York and London further apart than they have been in decades.

… 

Valcambi, Argor, and another refiner, PAMP, are near the Swiss border with Italy, which has suffered one of Europe’s worst coronavirus outbreaks.

Together they process about 1,500 tonnes of gold a year — equivalent to a third of global supply — in the world’s most important refining centre, purifying mined material and reshaping metal moving between markets that use different bar sizes. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-gold-refining-switzerland/swiss-gold-…

 

end

 

Hedge funds are now placing their bets on gold as currency printing goes through the stratsophere

(London’s Financial Times)

Hedge funds bet on gold as refuge from ‘unfettered’ currency printing

 Section: 

By Laurence Fletcher and Henry Sanderson
Financial Times, London
Tuesday, May 5, 2020

Some of the largest hedge funds are raising their bets on gold, forecasting that central banks’ unprecedented responses to the coronavirus crisis will lead to devaluations of major currencies.

Paul Singer’s Elliott Management, Andrew Law’s Caxton Associates, and Danny Yong’s Dymon Asia Capital are all bullish on the yellow metal, which has risen around 12 percent this year. They are wagering that moves to loosen monetary policy and even directly finance government spending, intended to limit the economic damage from the virus, will debase fiat currencies and provide a further boost to gold.

… 

Gold is a hedge against unfettered fiat currency printing,” said Mr Yong, founding partner at Dymon Asia, which is up 36 percent this year, helped by its bet on the gold price.

New York-based Elliott, which manages around $40 billion in assets, told its investors last month that gold is “one of the most undervalued” assets available and that its fair value was “multiples of its current price.”

In a letter, Elliott cited the “fanatical debasement of money by all the world’s central banks” as well as low interest rates and disruption to mining caused by coronavirus. Profits from gold positions helped the hedge fund to a gain of about 2 percent in the first quarter. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.ft.com/content/ecd9c6d5-6c42-4aa2-ae00-b741efd5af67

* * *

end

iii) Other physical stories:

 

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early TUESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED /

 

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  7.1238   /shanghai bourse CLOSED

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 254.86 POINTS OR 1.08%

 

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 574.34 POINTS OR 2.84%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL GREEN/

 

 

 

USA dollar index UP TO 99.85/Euro FALLS TO 1.0832

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. –.02/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 106.73/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 22.57 and Brent: 29.24

3f Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE XXX/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and  UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO -.59%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 1.91% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 0.82%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 2.60: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 2.17

3k Gold at $1698.90 silver at: 14.83   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 66/100 in roubles/dollar) 74.13

3m oil into the 22 dollar handle for WTI and 29 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 106.73 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9712 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0521 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to 0.59%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 0.66% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 1.32%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 7.0849..VERY DEADLY..

Global Markets Jump On Easing Of Lockdowns, Surging Oil

Traders are buying in May and not going away.

For the second consecutive day, US equity futures rose on Tuesday, bolstered by continued gains in the price of oil which headed for its longest winning streak in nine months amid optimism demand is rebounding and the peak of the production glut is behind us, while a slew of countries eased coronavirus-led restrictions in an attempt to revive their economies bolstering optimism for some random letter-shaped recovery.

Hopes for a recovery in demand boosted oil prices, helping energy giants Exxon Mobil and Chevron lead gains among the blue-chip Dow components.

Over in Europe, every sector climbed as the Stoxx Europe 600 advanced after slumping a day earlier and missing out on the late rebound for U.S. stocks. Shares of energy companies led the gains as oil extended its rebound. U.S. futures and European equities briefly trimmed gains as risk sentiment was curtailed after a 7-to-1 ruling from Germany’s top court over the legality of ECB stimulus found that some parts of the quantitative easing program aren’t backed by European Union treaties and gave the central bank three months to fix the asset purchase program. Total SA was among the big winners despite reporting a 35% plunge in first-quarter profit.

Earlier in Asia, there was little activity with markets closed in Japan, China and South Korea.

Wall Street snapped a two-day losing streak on Monday as gains in large tech and internet companies and oil prices outweighed concerns about the latest U.S.-China tensions and downbeat sentiment from the annual meeting of Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway.

The S&P 500 has climbed about 30% from its March lows on the back of unprecedented stimulus measures and signs of a plateau in new COVID-19 cases in many areas. However, many market experts have warned that the rally could be tested amid a risk of another wave of virus infections and with growing evidence of the damage to economy and corporate America.

The euro fell as investors scrutinized a verdict from Germany’s top judges over the legality of European Central Bank stimulus. They ruled that some actions taken by the country’s Bundesbank to participate in the asset purchase program were unconstitutional. Most bonds in the region turned lower led by Italian debt.

“There is reaction among euro area government bonds, but this ruling in Germany is not definitive for sentiment today on global markets,” said Stephen Gallo, head of European FX strategy at the Bank of Montreal. “Signs that lockdowns aren’t being severely re-tightened are setting the tone.”

Efforts by many major economies to start easing restrictions that have helped contain the coronavirus pandemic are inspiring a fragile confidence and hopes for an economic recovery. Countries including Italy as well as some U.S. states are tentatively lifting some restrictions this week but at the risk of a second wave of infection as global deaths surpassed a quarter of a million. However stocks remain on shaky ground as U.S.-China tension flares, and traders weigh the chances of a second wave of infections.

As global deaths from the pandemic topped 251,000, Hong Kong said it will ease curbs on social gatherings and reopen shuttered schools. California, the first state to shut down its economy over Covid-19, said it will start loosening its lockdown on Friday. Italy began to reopen its economy after two months. Spain started to relax its lockdown regime after weeks of confinement.

In rates and FX, Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index reversed an earlier loss and the greenback rose versus most Group-of-10 peers. The euro whipsawed after Germany’s constitutional court partly dismissed an ECB QE case but said some action is unconstitutional. The euro initially touched a session high against the dollar after the first headline on the ruling, before reversing, and losses extended as stops were hit around the 21-DMA; Italian bonds edged lower after the news. Treasury and bund yield curves bear steepened and commodity currencies, led by Australia’s dollar, held up well against the greenback as oil prices climbed; Australia’s central bank maintained policy and said it was ready to boost bond purchases, if needed.

WTI and Brent front month futures continue their grinds higher amid optimism of a rebalancing market as oil producers curtail output and economies gradually come back online. Further on the supply side, the Texas Railroad Commission is to convene today at 15:30BST to discuss and vote on mandated oil cuts. Markets largely expected the Commission to vote against the production limit.

Elsewhere, spot gold is on the backfoot amid the risk-appetite in the market and trades on either side of 1700/oz. Copper meanwhile remains underpinned by the risk-tone alongside the prospect of demand spurred by the reopening of global economics.

Expected data include trade balance and PMIs. Fiat Chrysler, Cheesecake Factory, and Disney are among companies reporting earnings.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.5% to 2,840.25
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 1.6% to 333.65
  • MXAP up 0.6% to 143.59
  • MXAPJ up 0.9% to 462.76
  • Nikkei down 2.8% to 19,619.35
  • Topix down 2.2% to 1,431.26
  • Hang Seng Index up 1.1% to 23,868.66
  • Shanghai Composite up 1.3% to 2,860.08
  • Sensex up 0.6% to 31,889.14
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 1.6% to 5,407.07
  • Kospi down 2.7% to 1,895.37
  • Brent futures up 6.8% to $29.05/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.1% to $1,699.70
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.4% to 99.92
  • German 10Y yield rose 3.4 bps to -0.529%
  • Euro down 0.1% to $1.0892
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 0.4 bps to 1.593%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 0.3 bps to 0.762%

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • The European Central Bank’s quantitative-easing program looks set to fight another day, even after German judges issued a three-month ultimatum to fix flaws in the controversial measure. In a 7-to-1 ruling, judges said that it isn’t backed by European Union treaties
  • Hong Kong’s leader said some social distancing measures will be eased, Italy began to reopen its economy after two months and Spain started to relax its lockdown regime after weeks of confinement. In the U.S., California and Arizona took steps toward reopening as New York reported the fewest new infections since mid-March
  • Chinese state media unleashed a torrent of criticism against Secretary of State Michael Pompeo – – calling him “evil” and a liar — as Beijing sought to push back against the U.S.’s virus allegations without prompting a confrontation with President Donald Trump
  • Italian banks are seeking to remove another 6 billion euros ($6.6 billion) of non- performing loans from their books before a new wave of toxic debt is unleashed because of the coronavirus outbreak
  • Australia’s central bank kept the interest rate and yield objective unchanged Tuesday as it braces for the shock from the shuttering of large parts of the economy to stem the spread of the coronavirus
  • With the U.K. government all but certain to ramp up spending to save jobs and keep businesses afloat, BOE Governor Andrew Bailey may signal he’s willing to buy more debt to keep borrowing costs from rising. At the current pace, the central bank will hit its current bond-buying goal around the end of June
  • U.K. new-car registrations plunged 97% in April to a level not seen since February 1946, after the government closed auto dealerships and other businesses to slow the spread of the coronavirus

Asian equity markets traded positively as the region took impetus from the rebound on Wall St where all major indices spent the session gradually paring earlier losses from the renewed US-China trade tensions and geopolitical concerns in the Korean peninsula, with the upside led by strength in tech and energy. As such, ASX 200 (+1.6%) is higher with the energy names mirroring the outperformance of the sector stateside on continued gains in oil prices and with strength seen across all of the big 4 banks, while Afterpay Touch extended on its rally after Tencent recently became a substantial shareholder in the Co. Hang Seng (+1.1%) was also underpinned by the improved risk tone and following comments from Chief Executive Lam who stated the time has come to ease social distancing measures and that she will announce the easing of restrictions as soon as possible. However, gains were limited by GDP data which showed Hong Kong fell deeper into a recession with the largest contraction on record for Q1 and as mainland China remained shut, alongside holiday closures in Japan and South Korea.

Top Asia News

  • Australian Central Bank Holds Fire as It Braces for Economic Hit
  • At Least China’s Big Market Reopen Won’t Be So Brutal This Time
  • ‘Mind Boggling’ 122 Million Jobs Lost in India, CMIE Says
  • Malaysia Cuts Key Rate by Most Since 2009 as Economy Reopens

Stocks remain positive territory [Euro Stoxx 50 +1.0%] following on from a similarly positive APAC session, albeit stocks saw substantial downside on the release of the German Constitutional Court verdict which issued a three-month ultimatum to the ECB in order to demonstrate proportionality – i.e. the monetary objectives of PSPP are not disproportionate to the economic and fiscal policy effects. Should the ECB fail to show this, then the Bundesbank may no longer participate in PSPP. On the release, DAX cash slipped from around 11,700 to around 10,6200 before continuing to trickle lower before finding a recent base just above 10,500. Sectors are all in the green with outperformance in the energy sector as the oil market continues its upwards trajectory. Some defensive sectors also lag cyclicals – with the exception of Healthcare. The sector breakdown also paints a similar picture with Oil & Gas and Basic Resources the top performers – whilst Household Goods and Food & Beverages reside on the other side of the spectrum. In terms of individual movers Infineon (+2.5%) rises post-earnings despite mixed numbers as the group issued earnings following its withdrawal earlier in the year. SAP (-0.8%) is weighted on after it identified that some of its cloud products did not meet one, or more, of the contractually, agreed or statutory IT security standard conditions – this affects 9% of customers. Total (+5.4%) is supported post-earnings amid the rise in oil prices alongside announcing that new measures taken will allow organic cash breakeven to remain below USD 25/bbl in 2020. Finally, Pandora (+6%) resides towards the top of the Stoxx 600 after noting in its earnings that it has the liquidity to sustain a stress-test scenario where all physical stores are temporarily closed throughout 2020.

Top European News

  • Irish Banks Again Europe’s Worst Performer as Crashes Add Up
  • Britain May Get First Floating Gas Store to Ease Reserve Crunch
  • U.K. Services Hit a Wall in April, Deepening Virus Malaise
  • Italian Bonds Fall After German Court Rules on ECB Bond Buying

In FX, The euro currency was already on the verge of relinquishing 1.0900+ status vs the Dollar ahead of the German Constitutional Court’s judgement on ECB QE and only got a fleeting fillip when the verdict went in favour on the grounds of insufficient evidence support the motion that the policy measure violates the prohibition of monetary financing. However, some of the Bank’s actions are deemed to be illegal and not backed by the EU Treaty, so the Senate has set a 3 month deadline for the GC to clearly define PSPP proportionality in the context of associated economic and fiscal effects, after which time the Bundesbank may not be permitted to participate in the asset purchase scheme, or reinvestment following the transition period. Eur/Usd has subsequently slumped towards 1.0800 and support seen around 1.0800, with the DXY eyeing 100.000 given the Euro’s hefty weighting in the index.

  • CHF – The Franc has extended declines against the Greenback to sub-0.9700 in wake of downbeat Swiss data and survey releases in the form of CPI and consumer confidence both turning more negative, but Eur/Chf has retreated further towards 1.0500 on the aforementioned Euro depreciation that may also have implications for the PEPP.
  • NOK/SEK/AUD/CAD – Relative G10 outperformers, as the Norwegian Crown draws more momentum from oil’s continued recovery and the aforementioned Euro weakness to retest 11.2000, while the Swedish Krona takes some encouragement from preliminary Q1 GDP metrics showing resilience the economy before the anticipated COVID-19 demise, with Eur/Sek hovering just above 10.7000. Elsewhere, the Aussie is holding a portion of its post-RBA gains following unchanged rates, albeit off overnight peaks when stops were tripped beyond 0.6450, and the Loonie is also benefiting from the more pronounced rebound in crude prices within a 1.4030-95 range ahead of Canadian and US trade reports.
  • GBP/NZD/JPY – All struggling to contend with Buck’s revival at the expense of the Euro in large part, but Cable has taken comfort from an upward tweak to the UK’s services PMI and Eur/Gbp’s reversal through the 200 DMA to stay afloat between 1.2420-85 parameters. Conversely, the Kiwi is being hampered somewhat by cross-winds given upside in Aud/Nzd from the low 1.0600 area to just shy of 1.0650 after the RBA, but pivoting 0.6050 vs its US counterpart in advance of NZ Q1 labour data tonight. Meanwhile, the Yen remains entrenched in Japanese holiday trade within a 106.50-90 band and waiting for the end of Golden Week that ends just in time for NFP on Friday.
  • EM – Little respite for the Lira as attempts to pare losses become less compelling and shallower into the 7.0000 handle, with Usd/Try increasingly more inclined to extend the break and target record peaks not seen since Turkey’s economic, fiscal and currency crisis in 2018.

In commodities, WTI andBrent front month futures continue their grinds higher amid optimism of a rebalancing market as oil producers curtail output and economies gradually come back online. Further on the supply side, the Texas Railroad Commission is to convene today at 15:30BST to discuss and vote on mandated oil cuts. Markets largely expected the Commission to vote against the production limit –called “pro-rationing”. Texas is the largest US oil-producing state, with an output of around 5.4mln BPD, accounting for around 41% of the nation’s production. The State of Oklahoma (557k BPD) is expected to discuss quotas on May 11th followed by North Dakota (1.425mln BPD) on May 20th. In terms of bank commentary, UBS expects oil markets to be balanced in Q3 followed by a period of undersupply in Q4. The Swiss bank expects Brent proves to recover to USD 43/bbl by end-2020 but notes that global travel restrictions are likely to keep the market oversupplied in Q2. WTI June resides at the top of its current USD 21.13-22.77/bbl range while Brent July also sees itself at the top-end of its intraday USD 27.77-29.41/bbl band. Later today, eyes will be on the API data for back the storage decline narrative, with extra focus on Cushing. Some traders warn that although the metric may print a smaller build, this does not mean storage capacity is expanding – but rather less room for larger builds. Elsewhere, spot gold is on the backfoot amid the risk-appetite in the market and trades on either side of 1700/oz. Copper meanwhile remains underpinned by the risk-tone alongside the prospect of demand spurred by the reopening of global economics.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Trade Balance, est. $44.2b deficit, prior $39.9b deficit
  • 9:45am: Markit US Services PMI, est. 27, prior 27
  • 9:45am: Markit US Composite PMI, prior 27.4
  • 10am: ISM Non-Manufacturing Index, est. 37.9, prior 52.5

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

One of the things that has kept me going through a busy but hard lockdown has been the final series of Homeland and the penultimate series of Better Call Saul. We finished both over the last two nights. For those who gave up on Homeland seven seasons ago after the ridiculous plot, all I can say is you’ve missed a show that got better and better with age. As for Better Call Saul it is possibly as good as Breaking Bad which is an incredibly high bar. So my wife and I now have a hole to fill. After high level negotiations we’ve decided to move onto the latest series of Narcos tonight.

Global equity markets had a plot twist last night as after looking set to continue their fall yesterday a late rally saw US stocks finish slightly higher as oil continued to recover (WTI +3.08%). However the rally also seemed to coincide with California reporting the fewest covid-19 deaths since early April and potentially opening lower-risk businesses as soon as this Friday.

The S&P 500 was up slightly (+0.42%) by the close, impressive given futures were -1.74% at the lows in Asia on Monday with the index over -1% lower just after the US open. One sector that couldn’t claw all the way back were US airlines following Warren Buffet’s weekend announcement that Berkshire Hathaway had completely exited its stakes in the four major carriers. American Airlines (-6.96%), United Airlines (-4.34%), Delta Airlines (-5.67%) and Southwest Airlines (-4.95%) all saw major falls. Technology stocks continued to be the outperformers, with the NASDAQ finishing +1.23%. The VIX reversed course as risk assets rallied, with the volatility index falling -1.22pts to 35.97. Earnings weren’t the main driver yesterday but Tyson Foods fell -7.82% after the largest US meat supplier forecast lower production and higher costs during their earnings call before the US open, while not offering official guidance. After the close AIG reported earnings with about $272 million in costs attributed to virus losses, with the stock down only slightly -0.54% in post-market trading. CEO Duperreault said on the accompanying earnings call that it would probably be the “single largest” catastrophe loss ever, but that AIG was “in a strong financial position before this crisis began.” Like many other companies this quarter, the company withdrew previously released guidance and failed to offer a concrete forecast.

The bounce back overshadowed the US/China story as various news items over the last few days have all pointed to a further escalation in tensions. Reports yesterday suggested that the response will spill over into the trade arena too, with Reuters reporting US officials who said that the administration were seeking to remove global supply chains from China and were considering further tariffs as well.

Those Asian markets that are open are trading up this morning after taking their cue from Wall Street with the Hang Seng (+0.55%), ASX (+1.27%) and India’s Nifty (+1.46%) all advancing. Markets in Japan, China and South Korea are closed for a holiday. Futures on the S&P 500 are also trading up +0.59% while WTI is up a further +6.52% and closing in on $22.

Back to yesterday and European equities were among the hardest hit, although that was mainly because they were reacting to Friday’s falls elsewhere when they were closed for the Labour Day holiday. The DAX (-3.64%), the CAC 40 (-4.24%) and the FTSE MIB (-3.70%) all saw major declines, though the continent’s sovereign bonds had a more mixed performance. While the spread of both Italian (-1.9bps) and Greek (-1.4bps) 10yr yields over bunds tightened, those on Spanish (+1.3bps) and Portuguese (+2.2bps) widened. Elsewhere the dollar had its second strongest day in over two weeks, with the dollar index up +0.41%, though the pound continued its falls from last Friday, ending the session down -0.50% against the US dollar. That move comes ahead of the start of trade negotiations between the US and the UK today, which will be taking place via videoconference.

The moves in sovereign debt markets came ahead of an expected ruling from the German Constitutional Court this morning. They’ll be delivering their final verdict on the compliance of the ECB’s Public Sector Purchase Programme (PSPP) with the ECB’s mandate and the EU treaties, which prohibit the monetary financing of member states. The original case was actually filed back in 2015, shortly after the ECB started their original asset-purchase programme. The German Constitutional Court then requested an interim ruling from the European Court of Justice, who said in December 2018 that PSPP was acceptable as an instrument of monetary policy, so all eyes will be on whether the GCC agree with the ECJ or whether they might constrain German participation in ECB policy. As I said yesterday what I know about the German constitutional court could be placed on the back of a postage stamp with room to still write. However after an extra day of reading this has increased to a postcard size and from listening to our expert from Frankfurt Barbara Bottcher, it seems that the court could remind the euro area (and the markets) that the question of the Bundesbank’s participation in future risk mutualisation shouldn’t be taken for granted even as they’ll likely accept PSPP today. Whilst it would be a major shock to see a negative ruling the court could still define some conditions around PSPP. Don’t forget we haven’t even got to the legality of PEPP yet but as this current case has taken a few years to get to where we are then the market will cross that challenge when it eventually needs to.

Back to the US, DB’s Matthew Luzzetti has just gone live with his second podcast episode looking at how the US economy is being impacted by the Coronavirus. Visit https://www.dbresearch.com/podzept/ to listen and subscribe to Podzept on Spotify, Google and Apple Podcasts. Sticking with the US, the New York Fed said yesterday that it expects to begin purchasing shares of eligible ETFs in early May through the SMCCF and added that its lending through the PMCCF and SMCCF via purchases of corporate bonds will begin soon thereafter. In additional details, the New York Fed said that it “will generally not purchase shares of an ETF that are trading at a premium” of 1% above its net asset value, or if the NAV premium diverged from the trend of the previous year. It also clarified that companies will have to provide written certifications that they were not able to obtain financing through traditional channels if they wish to place debt directly with the Fed through the PMCCF and added that subsidiaries of foreign companies may use the facilities if they have “significant operations” – meaning “greater than 50%” of assets, income, operating revenues, or operating expenses – in the US, and a majority of employees based there. Meanwhile, the US Treasury said that it plans to boost the US borrowing from April to June by c. $3tn to fund new stimulus spending legislation and tax receipt deferrals.

In terms of data out yesterday, we got a bunch of manufacturing PMIs, though they didn’t get much attention since countries not on holiday had released on Friday, while the flash PMIs had already given us a clue as to the numbers. Anyway, once again the figures showed sharp contractions, with the final Euro Area PMI revised down two-tenths to 33.4, a record low since the series began in 1997. In terms of the countries without a flash reading, Italy and Greece came in at 31.1 and 29.5 respectively, a record low for both. Outside of Europe, India was another badly affected country, with a 27.4 reading.

Wrapping up with the other data, US factory orders fell by -10.3% (vs. -9.7% expected) in March, while durable goods orders fell by -14.7% (vs. -14.4% expected). Meanwhile in Hong Kong, GDP fell by -5.3% in Q1, the largest quarterly decline on record.

To the day ahead now, and there’ll be the aforementioned German Constitutional Court verdict on the ECB’s PSPP, as well as the start of negotiations on a UK-US trade agreement. We have a number of earnings announcements including Disney, while we’ll hear from the Fed’s Evans, Bostic and Bullard. Finally, data highlights include the services and composite PMIs for April from the UK and US, while there’s also the ISM non-manufacturing index for April from the US and March’s trade balance.

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)TUESDAY MORNING/ MONDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED   //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 254.86 POINTS OR 1.08%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 574.34 POINTS OR 2.84%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 1.64%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed /Oil UP TO 22.57 dollars per barrel for WTI and 29.24 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED . OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.1238 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED//CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 C CHINA

China

China has re opened by global smartphone sales crash.  We not only have a supply problem but a global demand problem.  The supply problem is due to the fact that China has lied again…the virus is still present in China

(zerohedge)

Despite China’s “Reopening”, Global Smartphone Market Suffers Record Crash In Shipments

For months China has tried to convince the world through official economic data that it has successfully achieved a V-shaped recovery, though alternative data has shown otherwise. In the latest confirmation, China’s economy has not stabilized but instead continues to drown in economic turmoil are signs that consumers are not so confident about future economic prospects due to their inability to purchase smartphones.

Years ago, China eclipsed the US as the largest smartphone market. If Chinese consumers are unwilling to purchase smartphones, the impact is felt globally. This is precisely what the International Data Corporation (IDC) is reporting, as global smartphone shipments have plunged the fastest on record in 1Q20, due to the coronavirus pandemic forcing governments across Asia and the world to unleash devastating lockdowns that resulted in a global economic crash.

IDC reports worldwide smartphone shipments dropped 11.7% YoY over the quarter, with companies shipping around 276 million smartphones.

 

h/t Bloomberg

“What started as primarily a supply-side problem initially limited to China has grown into a global economic crisis with the demand-side impact starting to show by the end of the quarter,” said IDC research director Nabila Popal.

“While the supply chain in China started to recover at end of the quarter, as IDC expected, major economies around the world went into complete lockdown causing consumer demand to flatline,” Popal said. We noted in late March this setup was dubbed a “twin shock,” as China attempted to reopen manufacturing plants, only to realize that demand for products from Western countries collapsed as the fast-spreading virus led to global lockdowns.

He said consumers in China and elsewhere have dialed back purchases of smartphones as the virus has devastated aggregate demand:

 “This drop in demand, combined with the lockdowns and closures of retail shops across the globe, strongly impacted all consumer device markets, including mobile phones,” Popal said.

“As the uncertainties of the lockdowns and total economic impact linger, vendors are reconsidering their outlook for 2020,” he said. 

Crescat Capital’s Otavio Costa sums this up pretty well in a past tweet where he notes how consumer confidence has crashed among the Asia Pacific community but somehow not in China? He notes, “Fabricated data.…. CCP at its finest.”

 

h/t Otavio Costa

This is just more evidence that China has not only lied about a  V-shaped recovery in its economy but also severely under reported cases and deaths of the virus. We noted last week that China’s February swoon is a forgotten memory as Beijing reported a massive rebound in March PMIs from the February crash. And to make things even more comical, both PMIs continued a slight expansion in April.

Meanwhile, an entirely different economic growth story is playing out with real-time activity trackers that shows anything but economic expansion in China and is probably why consumers aren’t purchasing smartphones. The latest activity in such sectors are hotels, catering and entertainment is running far below indicative 2019 levels, with just mining and real estate roughly comparable to year ago levels.

Coal consumption of major power plants is nothing spectacular, on par with 2019 figures. Doesn’t suggest a robust recovery.

Domestic travel activity remains well under 2019 levels.

Industrial and consumer activity suggest anything but recovery in China.

Here’s more proof that China lied about its recovery.

Alternative data has allowed us to get a more clear picture of the economic turmoil that persists throughout China. It now also makes sense why consumers aren’t buying smartphones because that would take a recovery to do so.

END

CHINA//USA

Why Trump will use a new diplomatic crisis with China in the upcoming election

(zerohedge)

 

Why A New Diplomatic Crisis With China Is Critical For Trump If He Wants To Be Re-elected

Amid all the discussion of whether (or not) it is time to reopen the economy, and take the potential risk of a second wave of infections and deaths resulting in what could be a far more devastating second shutdown, one overlooked angle on the Corona-lockdowns as pointed out by Nordea’s FX strategist Andreas Steno Larsen, is that it emphasizes the already growing barriers between the “Elite” and the “Workers.”

In his latest FX weekly observations, Larsen writes that while “the big cities are the main epicenters (also per capita) of the Covid-19 virus, containment measures have been forced upon entire states and countries.” As a result, regions with low density have been faced with the same kind of measures as more dense areas, even if these regions haven’t seen a material spread of the virus.

In other words, “One size fits all, even if density has proven to be maybe the biggest issue when trying to contain the virus spread.” This means that in addition to the outsized gains to the elite as a result of the trillions in new stimulus injections which have promptly buoyed capital markets, the current virolocracy could also be seen as “both extraordinary elitist and gentrification-supportive in its nature, since a much larger part of the urban population can work from home etc.”

Expanding on this argument, Larsen notes that “workers lives matters” has seen tailwind in important swing states such as Michigan as most of the spread has been seen around Detroit, while the less dense parts of the state haven’t seen any material spread of the virus. The movement argues that the big cities are relatively better off in the lockdowns, and that less dense areas should never have been forced to close the economy anyway. And as the Nordea strategist writes, “it is KEY for The Donald to win over such “movements” if he wants to triumph in the election later this year.”

The problem is that neither Nordea, nor the Fed, think the economy will be in a good shape by then, which is why The Donald needs something else to convince his base, in particular since wage growth could be about to fall of a cliff.

Indeed, wages are another reason why workers are about to get a double whammy of corona pain: as Larsen continues, core inflation (and wage growth) are cyclical laggards, which means that first

  1. activity comes to a halt,
  2. commodity prices and headline inflation drop,
  3. workers are laid off in size,
  4. wages and prices decelerate or even decline.

Nordea believes that we are probably in between phase three and four now, and why news on prices and wages will be the next to surprise negatively during H2-2020 and in to 2021 (in Q1 and Q2 activity data has been the negative surprise).

So faced with record unemployment coupled with growing labor class anger, Trump’s weapon of choice to win over the workers again, will be an escalation of his China-bashing strategy in combination with renewed isolationism.

According to Nordea Trump deeming Chinese equities a “national security risk” is not really newsworthy since the EU has been talking about the same thing for a while – though, mostly with a focus on blocking potential hostile Chinese take-overs of Euro area companies, but it suddenly seemed to revive the focus on geopolitical risks on the other side of the Corona mess.

And while the US/China trade deal has been stone-dead for months already (as it was from the outset), so that is in itself not exciting, no-one had an interest in saying so until after the US election. The corona virus – and the coming elections – have offered Trump a chance to “reveal” that the trade deal is 100% off, and to take a renewed China aggressive stance into the election instead.

This inevitable deterioration in diplomatic relations, as Larsen concludes, is bad for Asian FX (versus USD), and risk assets and equities in general, and why Rabobank earlier today said that “There Is One Key Thing To Watch Today: The Yuan.

As Larsen concludes, “Before the March melt-up in markets, USD/CNY was THE global bellwether for risk appetite, and it may very well return as such very soon. You should buy USD/CNY (and sell risk assets) on tariff threats.”

 END
CHINA/USA
Trump will now turbocharge his efforts to bring manufacturing back to the USA.
(zerohedge)

Trump Administration “Turbocharging” Efforts To Grapple Global Supply Chains From China 

President Trump’s trade war is back. It’s an election year, and the efforts by the administration to ‘turbocharge’ an initiative to deglobalize that world by removing critical supply chains from China could be seen with new rounds of tariffs to strike Beijing for its handling of the COVID-19 outbreak, US officials told Reuters.

It’s clear that coronavirus lockdowns have resulted in a crashed economy with more than 30 million people unemployed have derailed President Trump’s normal campaigning process and the promises of a vibrant economy. This could suggest President Trump is about to unleash tariff hell on Beijing as it would do two things: First, it would pressure US companies with supply chains in China to exit, and second, the president can say the tariffs are a punishment for the more than 68,000 Americans that have died from the virus.

“We’ve been working on [reducing the reliance of our supply chains in China] over the last few years but we are now turbocharging that initiative,” Keith Krach, undersecretary for Economic Growth, Energy and the Environment at the U.S. State Department told Reuters.

“I think it is essential to understand where the critical areas are and where critical bottlenecks exist,” Krach said, adding that the matter was key to U.S. security and one the government could announce new action on soon.

Current and former officials said the Commerce Department and other federal agencies are investigating ways to push US companies away from sourcing and manufacturing in China. “Tax incentives and potential re-shoring subsidies are among measures being considered to spur changes,” they said.

“There is a whole of government push on this,” said one. Agencies are probing which manufacturing should be deemed “essential” and how to produce these goods outside of China.

Another official said, “this moment is a perfect storm; the pandemic has crystallized all the worries that people have had about doing business with China.”

“All the money that people think they made by making deals with China before, now they’ve been eclipsed many-fold by the economic damage” from the coronavirus, the official said.

Amid a pandemic and recession, it appears the comments from US officials suggest geopolitics could soon become major headaches for global markets. President Trump’s latest comments have stirred new concerns that an economic war with China is about to restart. This could be potentially dangerous for investors who are looking for V-shaped recoveries.

Last week, President Trump said China “will do anything they can” to make him lose his re-election bid in November. He said Beijing faced a “lot” of possible consequences for the virus outbreak.

He told Reuters: “There are many things I can do. We’re looking for what happened.”

President Trump recently said he could slap new tariffs of up to 25% tax on $370 billion in Chinese goods currently in place. Officials said the president could introduce new sanctions on officials or companies or project closer relations with Taiwan, all moves that would infuriate Beijing.

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo recently said the administration is working with allies, including Australia, India, Japan, New Zealand, South Korea, and Vietnam, to “move the global economy forward.”

Conversations among US officials have so far been about “how we restructure … supply chains to prevent something like this from ever happening again,” Pompeo said.

And it appears Beijing is preparing for President Trump to strike. We noted on Monday that Chinese President Xi Jinping is preparing for a worst-case scenario of armed conflict with the US.

For years, we have documented the possibility of Thucydides Trap playing out between the US and China. That is when a dominant regional power (the US) feels threatened by the rise of a competing power (China). Read:

The evolution of the pandemic and economic crash appears to be deepening geopolitical tensions between Washington and Beijing.

END
CHINA/USA
Trump slams Beijing again and Dr Fauci will testify before the Senate
(updates)
zerohedge)

Trump Slams Beijing, Says Dr. Fauci Will Testify To Senate

President Trump is speaking to a group of reporters and has just confirmed that contrary to the administration’s earlier decision, Dr. Fauci will make time in his busy schedule to testify to the Senate (not the Democrat-controlled House).

He also shared some thoughts on “very inaccurate” virus models, singling out that NYT report. 

He also had some more fighting words for China, again bashing Beijing for withholding information on the virus, in keeping with recent allegations.

  • TRUMP SAYS FAUCI WILL TESTIFY TO SENATE
  • TRUMP: NYT REPORT WAS ON DATA THAT DIDN’T INCLUDE MITIGATION
  • TRUMP SAYS HE JUST HEARD ABOUT DETAINED AMERICANS
  • TRUMP SAYS CHINA SHOULD HAVE INFORMED US ABOUT THE CORONAVIRUS, SAYS HE HAS NOT TALKED TO XI
  • TRUMP SAYS U.S. WILL BE REPORTING VERY DEFINITELY OVER A PERIOD OF TIME ABOUT ORIGIN OF VIRUS
  • TRUMP SAYS VIRUS MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY INACCURATE
  • TRUMP SAYS HE WANTS CHINA TO BE TRANSPARENT ON VIRUS

Of course, any public hearing involving Dr. Fauci, the most trusted authority on the outbreak in the US, will be closely followed by the press and the public.

end

CHINA/USA

Beijing slams Pompeo

 

China Slams ‘Evil Liar’ Pompeo Over Wuhan Lab ‘Nonsense’

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo must be over the target, as he’s been taking massive amounts of flack from Chinese state media after he said there was “enormous evidence” that the COVID-19 pandemic started in a Wuhan laboratory where scientists were experimenting with coronavirus.

In a series of commentaries, media mouthpieces for the Chinese Communist Party have called Pompeo “evil” and a liar. Xinhua News Agency said he’s spouting “nonsense” – while one newscaster from China Central Television accused him of “spitting poison,” according to Bloomberg.

U.S. Secretary of State Pompeo picked up his own lies in a May 3 interview with the media,” said newscaster Li Zimeng. “If the cheating behaviors from evil politicians like Pompeo continue, the U.S.’s ‘Make America Great Again’ could become merely a joke.”

While the coverage included some of China’s harshest critiques of a Trump administration official since the height of the trade war last year, state media continued to steer clear of direct attacks on Trump. The same strategy allowed Chinese President Xi Jinping to satisfy nationalistic outrage at home throughout the trade war, without prompting the U.S. president to counterpunch.

Chinese officials have instead focused their response on their biggest critics within the Trump administration, including Pompeo and White House trade adviser Peter Navarro. Such China hawks have shown a willingness to engage, with Deputy National Security Adviser Matt Pottinger delivering a speech in Mandarin on Monday that praised Chinese doctors who were reprimanded for sounding early warnings about the virus. –Bloomberg

And while China  – which destroyed evidence in the early stages of the outbreak – has been largely avoiding direct criticism of Trump, it’s becoming more difficult amid repeated attacks from the US president, who has repeatedly accused Beijing of deliberately fumbling the ball, while promising a “conclusive” report on the origins of the virus.

“My opinion is they made a mistake. They tried to cover it. They tried to put it out, just like a fire,” Trump said during a Sunday appearance on Fox News.

Bloomberg, meanwhile, goes so far as to write “Although the Wuhan Institute of Virology was studying bat-borne coronaviruses like the one that causes Covid-19 at the time of the first known outbreak nearby, there has so far been no evidence showing it possessed the previously unknown strain,” citing WIV director Yuan Zhiming, who said last month that “there is absolutely no way that the virus originated from our institute.”

Of note, WIV researchers Peng Zhou and Shi Zhengli have been conducting experiments on bat coronavirus for years – with Zhengli co-authoring a 2015 paper describing how they created achimeric virus made up of a surface protein of the SHC014 coronavirus strain and the backbone of a SARS virus which had been adapted to grow in mice and mimic human disease. The chimaera infected human airway cells — proving that the surface protein of SHC014 has the necessary structure to bind to a key receptor on the cells and to infect them.

Indeed, Zhengli has been studying how bat coronavirus can infect humans for years.

The official US position, however, is that the COVID-19 is of natural – non engineered origin, and likely escaped from the Wuhan Institute of Virology – located across town from the Wuhan wet market where the first cluster of cases was recorded.

end

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

UK/USA

The USA is not bluffing this time:  If the UK uses Huawei products in its new 5g operations, they might pull USA military and intelligence from them

(zerohedge)

“Not A Bluff”: White House Might Pull US Military & Intelligence From UK Over China’s Huawei

The issue of China’s Huawei and its 5G technology is creating deep tensions once again between the US and some European allies, this time threatening the usually iron-clad Anglo-American relationship and defense ties.

The Telegraph Monday evening broke the explosive story that the White House is currently investigating the potential for US spy planes, as well as intelligence networks and officials who ware currently operational in the UK to be compromised by Huawei’s presence in Britain.

The report anonymously quotes half a dozen current US and UK officials saying the Trump administration’s review is active and could have huge ramifications for the “special relationship” between the historic long-term allies.

 

US spy plane, file image via Daily Record

Of top concern is said to be state of the art reconnaissance aircraft based in Britain, particularly the RC-135 spy planes, capable of sweeping up vast intelligence from battlefields. The sophisticated aircraft are thought to be especially vulnerable after Prime Minister Boris Johnson previously gave the formal go-ahead for Huawei to help build Britain’s 5G network.

US officials who spoke to The Telegraph emphasized it’s not a bluff:

One former official who only recently left the White House’s National Security Council (NSC), which is leading the review, said it was “likely” some assets would be removed from Britain.

The source said: “This was not a bluff. You cannot mitigate the danger Boris Johnson is exposing the UK to by letting Huawei into the network.”

“This review is not a punishment. This is the White House saying ‘okay, if they’re going to go down this path and put themselves at risk then how do we protect ourselves.’”

The review marks a significant escalation in the Huawei row, with the US now going beyond words of warning and taking concrete steps that could end up harming military and intelligence ties.

However, Johnson has lately sought to assure both key allies like the US as well as the British public that the Chinese Communist government-linked firm would be allowed nowhere near core parts of the network, including tech related to sensitive military and nuclear sites.

President Trump, backed by the Pentagon and intelligence community, has long insisted to European allies and other global partners that Beijing would use its telecoms giants like Huawei as a ‘Trojan horse’ back-door of sorts into the West’s most closely guarded institutions and agencies.

 

Via Reuters

The now confirmed White House ordered review is perhaps the greatest proof thus far showing Trump is not bluffing, also given the same problems with Germany opening the door to Huawei and other Chinese firms for its 5G network. Likely the review was purposefully ‘leaked’ to British press as a shot across the bow.

“Every military and intelligence asset the Americans have in Britain is being assessed to understand the knock-on implications of letting Huawei, the Chinese tech giant, construct part of the new wireless network,” The Telegraphreport underscores.

The report continues, describing the vast scope of everything that could actually pulled back:

“The totality of the review means everything from the more than 10,000 US military personnel in Britain to half a dozen barracks to scores of military vehicles will be looked at, not to mention intelligence operations.”

It is an inter-agency review which means all relevant parts of the US government – in this case the Pentagon, State Department and 17 different intelligence agencies – will give input to the NSC.

This could mark nothing less than a revolution in US-UK relations, possibly irreversible in terms of future defense and intelligence sharing.

No doubt it dramatically ramps up the pressure on the UK’s Johnson, already long feeling the heat from Trump on the contentious Huawei issue. The reaction to the new report out of London is sure to be interesting.

 

end

CORONAVIRUS UPDATE  UK

 

The UK Is Now Home To The Deadliest COVID-19 Outbreak In Europe

After flip-flopping a handful of times over the past few weeks, it looks like the UK has finally cemented its status as the deadliest outbreak in Europe, with the UK death toll topping 32,000 on Monday, placing it decidedly above Italy’s 29,079, even though Italy still has confirmed more cases overall, according to a tally kept by Reuters.

Reuters reports that the milestone will probably “increase the political pressure on Boris Johnson”, who has been consistently blamed for not acting sooner to impose a countrywide lockdown, a decision he made at the behest of the government’s top viral experts, as Reuters’ own reporting readily confirmed early last month. 

The difference-maker that finally put the UK over the top was a report from the UK national statistics office which found another 7,000 deaths in England and Wales since the beginning of the outbreak, as HMG pledges to account for ‘every death’ caused by the virus. The UK’s most recent death toll was 32,313.

This policy will almost certainly guarantee that the UK will emerge as the death-toll leader in Europe, heaping even more pressure on Johnson, who is still enjoying something of a bump in the polls from his hospital stint.

Notably, the new figures haven’t yet been reflected in the Johns Hopkins data, though that should change as the data are updated.

Even as the UK works to account for every death, calculations run by the FT and WaPo seeking to examine total “excess” deaths and comparing them to the number of confirmed coronavirus deaths in a search for discrepancies, the Office of National Statistics said 33,593 more people had died than average up to April 24 in England and Wales, compared to 27,365 cases in which coronavirus was mentioned on the death certificates, which means there are likely still more deaths in the UK that will be added to the total en masse.

 END

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

CORONAVIRUS UPDATE/RUSSIA/GLOBE

Russia Reports 30,000 New COVID-19 Cases In 72 Hours As Explosive Spread Continues: Live Updates

Summary:

  • UK overtakes Italy for biggest death toll in Europe
  • Pfizer kicks off US vaccine study
  • Former FDA director dismisses NYT’s 3k/day projection
  • Sweden says it has evidence of viral spread as early as November
  • Hong Kong to further relax restrictions
  • Russia reports 30k+ cases in 72 hrs
  • Australia and New Zealand start planning to open borders to each other

*        *         *

Update (0820ET): As we apparently neglected to mention earlier, US drug giant Pfizer kicked off a major vaccine study on Tuesday, administering the first doses of its experimental treatment to test subjects, as Dr. Gottlieb reminds us.

Scott Gottlieb, MD

@ScottGottliebMD

Pfizer begins U.S. safety trials with their covid19 vaccine candidate. https://twitter.com/pfizer/status/1257629720969084931 

Pfizer Inc.

@pfizer

UPDATE: Together with @BioNTech_Group, we are proud to announce that the first participants have been dosed in our U.S. #ClinicalTrial Program for a potential #COVID19 #vaccine. Read more:

Before we go, the UK has once again overtaken Italy as the country with the highest official death toll in Europe with 32,000 deaths as Italy’s outbreak slows markedly while the UK’s progress has been somewhat less notable, per Reuters.

*        *         *

Last night, we reported that the number of confirmed coronavirus-linked deaths around the world had surpassed 250,000. The astronomical new milestones reached over the past week – the number of ‘confirmed’ cases topped 3 million while deaths topped a quarter-mil – belie the reality that from Asia, to Europe to the US, restrictions on personal movement and business activity are being rolled back.

One of the biggest news stories of the week so far is an NYT report citing ‘projections’ ordered by the CDC showing the number of deaths doubling to 3k/day by next month. The NYT cited this as evidence that the push to reopen is premature, even as the CDC and the researchers at Johns Hopkins who compiled the projections played down their importance and predictive qualities.

Expanding on those criticisms, former FDA Director Dr. Scott Gottlieb explained that the projection is mostly meaningless during an appearance on CNBC’s “Squawk Box”. Gottlieb explained that considering how far we are into this outbreak, it’s surprising how little researchers know for certain about the virus.

“What they do is they work with outside academic groups – and in this case they worked with a group at Hopkins that was under contract. This was one of a number of different runs that the Hopkins researchers came up…it’s not at all clear that this is a definitive model…of what might happen,” Gottlieb said.

On the other hand, Gottlieb added that the 3,000/day death toll projection isn’t the worst that he’s seen.

“No, from what I’ve heard is there were others that were worse. As we start to reopen the economy more – you saw airline travel pickup Friday for the first time in 30 days – they’re going to pick up. We are going to have a background of spread, and we are going to have to figure out what that looks like,” Gottlieb said.

Whether the US manages to start reopening without a massive surge in deaths is going to depend on a number of factors, Gottlieb explained.

“I think the issue going forward is going to be ‘where can you go to get tested?’ – but if you get to the point where doctors don’t want to run these tests because if you get a positive result you need to deep clean the office and quarantine your staff,” Gottlieb said.

Moreover, Dr. Gottlieb explained that the US outbreak actually hasn’t been subsiding. Most of the nationwide “progress” is largely due to the success that New York State has had bringing its outbreak – the worst of any state in the US – to heel. If one were to ‘back out’ the New York numbers from the national data, Gottlieb explained, the picture they paint is considerably less rosy. “You certainly can’t conclude that the epidemic has reached its peak…” Gottlieb said.

Despite worries about a ‘second wave’, the US and EU4 – Italy, Spain, France and Germany –  have continued to push toward reopening, Russia has continued to move in the opposite direction. According to Reuters, the number of new coronavirus cases reported in Russia on Tuesday has risen by 10,102 over the past 24 hours, compared with a record 10,581-case jump the previous day. Over the last 72 hours, Russia has confirmed some 30k+ cases, bringing its total confirmed caseload to 155,370, along with 1,451 deaths, with many more cases likely still unconfirmed, Reuters reported.

New York Governor Andrew Cuomo and California Gov Gavin Newsom took the public by surprise yesterday when they each announced plans to speed up the phased reopening in their states. Cuomo ordered local officials to start preparing “now” for May 15, when New York’s reopening is expected to start. In California, Gov Newsom – who just last week said it was too early to speculate about a reopening date – said that some more retail businesses in his state would reopen by the end of the week. Germany’s provincial leaders reportedly agreed during a phone call with Merkel on Tuesday to reopen more businesses and allow more students to return to class. On Tuesday, Germany reported a fifth consecutive decline in the number of new cases being confirmed.

On Tuesday morning, the biggest news out of the US pertained to a vaccine trial run by Pfizer: the drug giant said Tuesday that the first patients participating in Pfizer’s massive vaccine trial have been dosed. The study will examine the efficacy of four trial drugs.

The number of new coronavirus cases confirmed in Germany declined for the fifth day in a row on Tuesday, assuaging concerns about a recent uptick in Germany’s rate of viral spread seen after it started allowing some more businesses to reopen.

Hong Kong’s government said Tuesday it would further relax restrictions on public gatherings and allow gyms, cinemas and beauty parlors to re-open by the end of the week as the flow of new coronavirus cases slows to a trickle, with practically every new case found to be imported, rather than locally transmitted.

Australia and New Zealand said efforts to resume travel between the two countries would take some time, as they cautiously re-open their mostly shuttered economies after containing outbreaks of the novel coronavirus.

A team of analysts at Goldman Sachs published a research note yesterday arguing that Sweden’s strategy for confronting SARS-CoV-2 likely couldn’t be replicated in the EU and the US. Well, on Tuesday, Sweden’s chief epidemiologists said the country may have had its first case of the virus as early as November.

As far as we know, local authorities in Wuhan weren’t even aware of the outbreak in November.

Over the past few weeks, we’ve seen more evidence suggesting that domestic spread of SARS-CoV-2 had started in US and other countries as early as January. We can’t help but wonder: if accurate, this would cast the battle against the virus in a whole new light.

END
ISRAEL
A BIGGY!!
Israel has isolated a key coronavirus antibody and after patenting it they will seek out a manufacturer to make this available globally
(Reuters)

Israel isolates coronavirus antibody in ‘significant breakthrough’: minister

JERUSALEM (Reuters) – Israel has isolated a key coronavirus antibody at its main biological research laboratory, the Israeli defence minister said on Monday, calling the step a “significant breakthrough” toward a possible treatment for the COVID-19 pandemic.

The “monoclonal neutralising antibody” developed at the Israel Institute for Biological Research (IIBR) “can neutralise it (the disease-causing coronavirus) inside carriers’ bodies,” Defence Minister Naftali Bennett said in a statement.

The statement added that Bennett visited the IIBR on Monday where he was briefed “on a significant breakthrough in finding an antidote for the coronavirus”.

It quoted IIBR Director Shmuel Shapira as saying that the antibody formula was being patented, after which an international manufacturer would be sought to mass-produce it.

The IIBR has been leading Israeli efforts to develop a treatment and vaccine for the coronavirus, including the testing of blood from those who recovered from COVID-19, the respiratory disease caused by the virus.

Antibodies in such samples – immune-system proteins that are residues of successfully overcoming the coronavirus – are widely seen as a key to developing a possible cure.

The antibody reported as having been isolated at the IIBR is monoclonal, meaning it was derived from a single recovered cell and is thus potentially of more potent value in yielding a treatment.

Elsewhere, there have been coronavirus treatments developed from antibodies that are polyclonal, or derived from two or more cells of different ancestry, the magazine Science Direct reported in its May issue.

Israel was one of the first countries to close its borders and impose increasingly stringent restrictions on movement to hamper the domestic coronavirus outbreak. It has reported 16,246 cases and 235 deaths from the illness.

6.Global Issues

Heathrow boss says social distancing will never work at airports or on planes

(Watson/Summitnews)

Heathrow Boss Says “Social Distancing” Will Never Work At Airports

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

Heathrow boss John Holland-Kaye warns that ‘social distancing’ measures would never work at airports because queues to board flights would be a kilometer long.

The British public has been repeatedly told that even after the lockdown ends, they will have to practice ‘social distancing’ – standing two meters away from the nearest person – for months or even years into the future.

This is practically impossible in many situations, most notably London’s transport system, which is notoriously crowded virtually all the time.

Now the CEO of Heathrow Airport has poured cold water on the idea that ‘social distancing’ could be practiced inside airports.

“Forget social distancing, it won’t work in aviation or any other form of public transport, and the problem is not the plane, it is the lack of space in the airport,” wrote Holland-Kaye in the Daily Telegraph.

“Just one jumbo jet would require a queue a kilometer long,” he added.

Given that the largest A380 passenger plane seats 500 people, the notion that all those people could keep two meters distance as they board the plane just isn’t feasible.

Holland-Kaye is calling on Prime Minister Boris Johnson to come up with a “common international standard” of alternative solutions that would be ready to be implemented by the summer.

end
Michael Every…

Rabobank: “How Is This Not Front-Page News?”

Submitted by Michael Every of Rabobank,

All the news that’s fit to print. It’s a classic phrase, but it’s clearly not One Size Fits All in our fractured political/media landscape. Want to hear how awful party X or country Y is? There is a media outlet for you. Want to hear the complete opposite? There is another channel for that. Want to get an objective opinion? Well good luck with that – but there are some slim pickings out there in blog-land. The best approach is arguably Hegelian – follow everything. Read The Telegraph and The Guardian; read The Washington Times AND The Global Times; watch MSNBC AND Fox News; then compare and contrast – and this runs true for financial press and market news too.

For example, yesterday’s Daily underlined expectations that US-China relations would go off a cliff. Subsequently we saw two bombshell Reuters stories. The first is that according to anonymous officials, the Trump White House is going to “turbocharge” the extraction of supply-chains from China, taking an ‘all of government’ approach; this including financial incentives such as tax cuts or subsidies for those firms; the US is considering higher tariffs and targeted sanctions of Chinese individuals, and even close relations with Taiwan as well; and it wishes to bring other countries with it in a so-called new “Economic Prosperity Network”, which sounds like a combination of the TPP and the Cold War. At any point during the 2018-19 trade war, this would have been front page news. Instead, it got hardly a mention. It did rightly see markets dip somewhat yesterday, but arguably not to the extent the story deserved. It also ignored Peter Navarro following up that “Buy American would soon be the law of the land” for some US government departments. Perhaps the market, in its infinite wisdom, believes this is all electioneering and/or that Trump won’t follow through? There is form there – but such certainty in the face of such uncertainty!

Later in the day Reuters was at it again. This time with news that an internal Chinese report seen by Xi Jinping has concluded that in the post-pandemic era Beijing will face the toughest international anti-China pushback since 1989, and that in a worst-case scenario it needs to be prepared for armed confrontation between itself and the US. Reuters states that the report is regarded by some in China as their version of the 1946 “Novikov Telegram”, which was the former USSR’s response to George Kennan’s infamous telegram from Moscow that concluded the Soviets did not see the possibility of peaceful coexistence with the West, and that a US policy of containment was needed. One might think THAT would be front-page news. It wasn’t. It was hardly news at all. Yet there is no election coming up in Beijing.

It is probably not a coincidence that both of these stories emerged yesterday. The US clearly wants China to know that economic sabres are being sharpened in the hope that they don’t have to be used, just rattled; and China wants the US to know that they know the sabres are being sharpened – and that the outcome would be awful for both sides if they are used. Duelling with words is certainly preferable, after all.

This does not mean that something important is not happening here: it is. Neither does it mean markets should be ignoring it: they shouldn’t. Geopolitical tensions are escalating rapidly far beyond the extent to which markets are pricing for – apart from US Treasury yields, where the 2-year is hovering around a record low of just 18bp. An extra 10% US tariff on Chinese goods at this stage, as a random example, would actually be a very benign outcome given the rhetoric being flourished. Of course, one can make the point that USD/CNH is hardly moving. Yet as was stressed yesterday, this is not really a market. When it starts moving sharply we know that at least one sabre is already being used.

Meanwhile, on a different front, there are lots more headlines today about virus lockdowns being rolled back. It seems that real life will begin again in many developed economies within the next few weeks to some extent. That obviously generates one set of headlines – mainly “V-shaped” in tone. The problem is that once we get out of our houses we will see what the real economic damage is: no more hypothesizing what a post-pandemic recovery will look like. As alluded to yesterday, it’s likely to be very ugly due to lingering restrictions and prudent changes in behaviour (the kind of risk prudence markets aren’t showing re: US-China relations). For example:

  • As 3 in 4 Brits remain sceptical of leaving lockdown, the UK Chancellor is warning that half the population is now being supported by the government. Imagine what the bill is going to be. Imagine how we don’t need a Magic Money Tree to get out it.
  • New Zealand, which is seeing zero new infections, has seen PM Arden stress its borders will be staying closed for a long while yet. No tourism, sorry.
  • Australia, also doing well versus the virus, also has closed borders….and the RBA left rates on hold and pledged to keep them there until the economy is back at full employment, which could be years – or ever, depending on immigration policy. The RBA also pledged to do more QE if needed. (Which stopped AUD from ramping at this meeting for once.)
  • Showing the mental confusion when post-Covid geopolitics meets traditional “because markets” neoliberal thinking, Aussie Treasurer Frydenberg has stated that the country must avoid the evils of protectionism…while ensuring it is self-sufficient. Mate, self-sufficiency *requires* protectionism else everyone would already be buying Aussie because it’s cheaper. And perhaps it requires an Economic Prosperity Network too?

But back to what’s fit to print. Also not exactly screaming to the top of the front pages, Germany’s constitutional court will today rule on what Reuters (again!) is calling “an existential challenge to the ECB’s bond purchases”. Will judges give the green light for ECB operations to continue as normal, or place real limitations on them? Might that be an important story, perhaps, given the key role the ECB is playing, the risk downside, and the uncertainty of the outcome for markets? Apparently not. It’s more pressing for Bloomberg to tell us that US stock futures are heading higher along with oil. Perhaps to stop us all from having a fit.

7. OIL ISSUES

Oil is up sharply but we careful:  May 19 is approaching and we may another of those “April 20” episodes.

(zerohedge)

Oil Soars 20%, Hits Goldman’s Q3 Target 4 Months Early, But Here Comes June Maturity

Just two trading days after Goldman flipped bullish on oil, saying that it now appears likely that the market is passing its test on storage capacity” and hiking its oil price forecasts to $25/$30 for Q2/Q3 Brent, and sees WTI at $20/$28 for Q2/Q3, respectively…

… Brent has already hit Goldman’s Sept 30 price target, and on Tuesday afternoon Brent was trading above $31, thanks to a torrid rally that saw a barrel of the black stuff trading at $25 just yesterday.

Meanwhile, in a market that goes all in from one extreme to the other, WTI is also surging, and was up 20% at last check, trading as high as $24.85 for the June contract before settling at 230pm …

… which is remarkable because just two weeks ago it was trading at MINUS $40.

The last time WTI was here, traders realized that with Cushing effectively full, and with demand still dismal, oil prices cratered as there was no space for the physical deliverable. And while there has been a modest improvement in global demand, the surging oil price means that supply that was put on pause in recent weeks will once again start pumping aggressively, and the global supply/demand imbalance will once again shift aggressively toward supply, and result in sharply lower oil prices.

… which in the next few days will need some place to be stored. And something tells us it won’t find it, meaning we are about to go through the oil rollercoaster all over again…

end

SHELL

Shell issues a dire warning for il markets

(OilPrice.com/Kimani)

Shell Has A Dire Warning For Oil Markets

Shell

After months of a deep and harrowing slide, fuel demand across the world is finally starting to sputter back to life. Traffic data, pipeline flows, and sales at gas stations in the Texas City of San Antonio, Beijing, and Barcelona all suggest that the oil demand slump may have already bottomed out. But don’t rush to pop the champagne corks just yet.  Indications so far are that the road to full recovery is going to be harder than climbing out of a subterranean pit, with many oil traders predicting that it might be a year or more before demand returns to pre-crisis levels.

A growing minority are even less sanguine and speculate that it may never get back there again.

Royal Dutch Shell plc (NYSE:RDS.A) belongs to the latter camp: Company CFO Jessica Uhl warned investors of “ …major demand destruction that we don’t even know will come back,” during the company’s latest earnings call.

The Anglo-Dutch supermajor, a deepwater operator and leading natural gas trader, stunned investors after announcing the first dividend cut since the 1940s, saying it deemed it necessary to preserve liquidity given the uncertainty regarding when the pandemic will finally be contained.

Shell declared a $0.32/ADS quarterly dividend from a prior dividend of $0.94, good for a 66% cut. It also announced revenue of $60.03B (-28.3% Y/Y), $9.58B below Wall Street’s consensus; non-GAAP EPS of $0.37 beat by $0.09 while GAAP EPS of $0.00 missed by $0.18. The dividend reduction alone is set to free up around $10 billion for the bottom line. Shell’s dividend reduction will set free ~$10 billion for the bottom line.

Related: Oil Jumps On Expectations Of Slowing Inventory Builds
The dividend reset has taken many analysts by surprise, given that oil majors Chevron Corp. (NYSE:CVX) and ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) have both announced deep capex cuts, but left the dividend intact.

Maybe it’s just a matter of time before they also follow suit.

Source: NaturalGasIntel

Analysts are warning that a V-shaped recovery is highly unlikely, with the sheer scale of the demand destruction–estimated at a staggering 30 million barrels a day in April–making for a long and tough road back to the pre-crisis global demand of ~100 million barrels per day.

Shell says it’s bracing itself for a worst-case scenario: Demand to never fully recover.

“I think a crisis like this has the potential to capitalize society into a different way of thinking, much as the Paris Agreement has had,” company CEO Ben van Beurden has told investors.

Url says the company expects an “L-shaped recovery,” implying that oil demand will stay at ~9% below last year rather than rebounding sharply or even slowly in a U-shaped trajectory.

Related: Oil Price Crash Hits Latin American Drillers Hard

Citigroup does not see a full recovery in jet fuel demand until well into 2022, while Boeing’s CEO expects passenger traffic to remain depressed for three more years.

The IEA is a bit more optimistic, though.

The energy analyst has estimated that May consumption will be 25.8 million barrels below that level, while June consumption is expected to be about 14.6 million barrels below normal. However, it sees December consumption clocking in at just 2.7 million barrels below 2019 levels.

Peak Oil Demand

With oil and gas companies set to lose $1 trillion in revenues in the current year–or 40% lower than 2019 revenue of $2.47 trillion–it’s not hard to see where these gloomy outlooks are coming from.

But the notion that we might have crossed peak oil demand is not all that far-fetched.

Just last year, the IEA predicted that global oil demand would peak in the mid-2020s and plateau around 2030.

The IEA had predicted that global oil demand would expand by about 1% annually to hit 105.4 million bpd by 2025, after which growth would shrink substantially with consumption peaking at 106.4 million bpd.

The silver lining, however, was that natural depletion would shrink oil supply and lead to higher prices, averaging $90 a barrel in 2030 and $103 in 2040, according to the agency.

The Covid-19 pandemic has drastically altered the market dynamics, and nobody seems sure how the energy sector will look like when it’s all over. Just don’t be surprised if consumers and global investors decide to, once and for all, vote with their wallets and give the sector a wide berth as Shell has predicted.

By Alex Kimani for Oilprice.com

More Top Reads From Oilprice.com:

 

end

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings TUESDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.0832 DOWN .0072 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS//CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /GREEN

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 106.73 UP 0.034 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2449   UP   0.0005  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/

 

USA/CAN 1.4045 DOWN .0040 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  TUESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL BY 72 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.0832 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 254.86 POINTS OR 1.08%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 1,64%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 254.86 POINTS OR 1.08% 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED 

 

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP  1.64% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 574.34  POINTS OR 2.84%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1695.10.10

silver:$14.72-

Early TUESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 0.66% !!! UP 2 IN POINTS from MONDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 1.32 UP 4  IN BASIS POINTS from MONDAY night.

USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 99.85 UP 36  CENT(S) from  MONDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers TUESDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing  TUESDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.89% UP 4 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.02%  DOWN 0   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.78%//UP 2 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:1,86 UP 11 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 108 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.58% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 2.44% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR TUESDAY

Closing currency crosses for TUESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0843  DOWN     .0060 or 60 basis points

USA/Japan: 106.56 DOWN .136 OR YEN DOWN 14  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2453 UP .0009 POUND UP 9  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar UP 54 basis points to 1.4031

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY: CLOSED

 

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  7.1209  (YUAN DOWN)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  7.0962 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.02%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 3 IN basis points from MONDAY at 0.66 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 1.33 UP 5 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 99.80 UP 31  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for TUESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 89.80  1.56%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 238.46 POINTS OR 2.28%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED  UP 91.06 POINTS 2.06%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 53.40 POINTS or 0.80%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 296.86 POINTS OR 1.74%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 23.81 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 29.65 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE RISES:    73.77  THE CROSS LOWER BY 1.01 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE HIGHER BY 101 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.58 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  24.65//

 

 

BRENT :  31.14

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 0.65..plus one basis point…

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 1.32.. plus 4 basis points..

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.0845 ( DOWN 58   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:106.49 DOWN .208 (YEN UP 21 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 99.78 UP 29 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.2443 DOWN 2  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 7.0822

 

 

the Russian rouble 73.76   UP 1.03 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( UP 103 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.4049 UP 35 BASIS pts

 

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.32%

 

The Dow closed UP 133.33 POINTS OR 0.56%

 

NASDAQ closed UP 98.41 POINTS OR 1.13%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  33.57 CLOSED DOWN 2.40

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 0.500%//libor dropping like a stone

LIBOR/OIS:  .443  DROPPING

TED SPREAD:  LIBOR VS 3 MONTH TREASURY BILL:  .378//DROPPING

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

“We’re In A Global Recession” – Fed’s Clarida Spoils Today’s Economy-Ignoring Surge In Stocks

The Nasdaq 100 has been green for 2020 for a week and the broader Nasdaq Composite got close today as the fantastic five stocks lift the index against all rationality.

Source: Bloomberg

As CALSTRS CIO Ailman noted earlier:

“this market is divorced from reality,” adding – with a frown at its outlier nature, “there’s such a strong bid to this market – particularly in the overnight futures trading – it just doesn’t make any sense.”

And he is right…

Earnings recession…

Source: Bloomberg

Economic recession…

Source: Bloomberg

Employment ‘depression’…

Source: Bloomberg

Health recession…

Source: Bloomberg

But apart from all that, everything is awesome… BTFD!!

On the day, stocks were up…

Nasdaq led the day, Dow Industrials lagged…

Futures show the malarkey best with the late-day dump as Fed Vice-Chair Clarida starting speaking and dared to admit:

We’re living through the most severe contraction in activity and surge in unemployment that we’ve seen in our lifetimes,”

It’s important to make sure the rebound is as robust as possible, but can’t minimise that we are in recession.. a global recession.

It’s not like he said anything we didn’t know!!?? BUT everyone dumped…

Nasdaq FUTs tagged the 76.4% Fib retracement again… and faded…

 

Oil was up… (WTI up 5 days in a row nearing $25 ahead of tonight’s API data)…

June WTI is up 140% in the last few days…

Bond yields were up

Source: Bloomberg

Gold was up

Bank stocks were NOT up…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar was NOT up…

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos were NOT up…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, FANG Stocks…

Source: Bloomberg

And the S&P at 20x P/E…

Source: Bloomberg

And Copper/Gold is not buying this bullshit rally in stocks at all… just like in January/February…

Source: Bloomberg

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

USA trade deficit widens

(zerohedge)

US Trade Deficit Widens On Record Crash In Exports

After reaching its smallest deficit since September 2016 in February, the US trade balance tumbled in March. The overall gap in goods and services trade widened to $44.4 billion from a revised $39.8 billion in February.

Source: Bloomberg

The surge in the deficit was driven by a plunge in US exports of goods and services. Exports dropped from the prior month by a record 9.6% to $187.7 billion, while imports fell 6.2% to $232.2 billion.

Source: Bloomberg

Declines in international travel and tourism made up a large portion of the decreases in exports and imports. Travel and transport exports dropped about $10.1 billion, while imports fell around $10.6 billion.

And the trade deficit with China has shrunk dramatically…

Source: Bloomberg

As Bloomberg points out, and is clear from the chart above, foreign trade was already diminishing heading into the pandemic, and now, faced with supply chain disruptions, a previously incomprehensible surge in unemployment and a drop off in demand, the world’s largest economy has pulled back more dramatically.

END

Just the beginning: ISM and PMI surveys signal a complete Q1 complete in USA GDP//more to come

(zerohedge)

ISM/PMI Surveys Signal Q1 Collapse In US GDP “Will Be Dwarfed By What’s To Come”

ISM’s data continues to lag Markit’s (due to the utter farce of supplier delivery reversals not being factored as a devastatingly bad thing in the former).

  • Markit Manufacturing 36.1 (record low)
  • Markit Services 26.7 (record low)
  • ISM Manufacturing 41.5 (not record low due to supplier delivery times)
  • ISM Services 41.8 (lowest since April 2009 – finally caught down to reality)

Finally ISM Services caught down to reality, somewhat, in April…

Source: Bloomberg

Measures of business activity, new orders and employment all fell to record lows last month in figures going back to 1997, according to survey data from the Institute for Supply Management on Tuesday. The industries in ISM’s report represent about 90% of the economy.

And the ISM Services print is way better than it should be because of this shitshow!!

Source: Bloomberg

The composite gauge reflects a surge in the supplier-delivery index to a record 78.3, indicating longer lead times.

While that usually indicates strains from elevated demand, the deliveries index now reflects virus-related disruptions in supply lines and business closures.

The IHS Markit Composite PMI Output Index dropped significantly from 40.9 in March to 27.0 at the start of the second quarter. The overall decline was driven by historic downturns in both the manufacturing and service sectors following the escalation of the COVID-19 outbreak, and signals dramatic further worsening in GDP…

“The slump in the business survey indicators to all-time lows in April indicates how the 4.8% rate of economic decline seen in the first quarter will likely be dwarfed by what’s to come in the second quarter. 

Commenting on the latest survey results, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, said:

Measures to fight the COVID-19 outbreak mean vast swathes of the service sector has been especially hard hit by travel restrictions and social distancing, with temporary company closures and dramatically reduced demand resulting in an overall drop in activity of even greater magnitude than seen during the height of global financial crisis.

“With hope, infections rates have peaked and the economic downturn should start to ease as virus-related restrictions are lifted. However, while manufacturing may see a rebound in production as increasing numbers of factories are allowed to re-open, prospects look bleaker for many parts of the services economy, especially where businesses rely on travel, social gatherings or close contact with customers. Businesses such as airlines, bars, restaurants, cinemas, sports arenas and other recreational activities will likely be at the back of the line in terms of being able to re-open to anything like previous capacity levels, meaning the recovery will be long and slow.”

And finally, spot the odd one out!

Source: Bloomberg

Seems like China has this whole fake fucking data thing sorted out.

end

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

The beginning of the end for Hertz as they hired a restructuring adviser

(zerohedge)

Hertz Hurts! Car-Renter Shares Routed On Reports Restructuring Adviser Hired

It would appear an already over-levered car-rental business is not “essential“?

Just days after The Wall Street Journal reported that Hertz is preparing for a possible bankruptcy filing after the rental-car company failed to make lease payments to preserve cash amid the Covid-19 pandemic, the journal reports tonight that the firm has hired an additional adviser to help prepare for a planned bankruptcy filing, according to people familiar with the matter.

Revolving lender Barclays is working with Latham & Watkins LLP, while a group of term loan lenders has engaged financial adviser Houlihan Lokey Inc., and law firm Arnold & Porter Kaye Scholer LLP, the people said.

For veterans of past credit cycles, it should be no real surprise that the rental car business is on its last legs, but CDS spreads this time are screaming default is imminent (and that recovery values for any debt are extremely low)…

Source: Bloomberg

Hertz has $17 billion worth of debt, which includes $3.7 billion of corporate bonds and loans and $13.4 billion of vehicle-backed notes.

Last week, we ‘mocked’ the stock price remaining ever hopeful that is has some value ($650 mm market cap)…

Source: Bloomberg

All of that is out the window tonight as HTZ is down almost 30% after hours…

Hertz shares are well on their way to zero… as the bonds are trading at just 18c on the dollar…

In recent months, both Hertz and rival Avis have cut executive pay and resorted to furloughs and job cuts, with Hertz last month laying off about 10,000 employees in North America. Avis said Monday it would try to borrow $400 million for general purposes.

And before they beg for a bailout, even before the pandemic, Hertz and its rivals were struggling with losing customers to ride-hailing firms such as Uber and Lyft.

END

Beef prices are exploding to record highs.  Stores are limiting meat purchases

(zerohedge)

Beef Prices Explode To Record High As More Stores Limit Meat Purchases

Just a few days ago we marveled as wholesale beef prices had soared over 60% from their February lows to a record $331 per 100 pounds. Well, that was then, because today alone, the wholesale price soared by 8.6% or $32.60 to a new all time high of $410.05, almost doubling in less than a month.

The reason: an unprecedented collapse of the nation’s food supply chain as over a dozen meat processing plants have been shuttered due to the coronavirus pandemic.

Beef prices are soaring even after Trump issued an executive order  to address meat shortages, however with food workers scared and unwilling to return to work, Trump’s attempt to normalize prices has backfired, because all it has achieved was a frantic scramble by consumers to hoard beef resulting in even bigger shortages and higher prices.

Call it a bacon run.

As a result of the wave of panic-shopping at supermarkets, more grocery stores are imposing limits on meat purchases. On Friday, we reported that supermarket chain Kroger said that it has put “purchase limits” on ground beef and fresh pork at some of its stores following growing concerns over meat shortages due to coronavirus-induced supply disruptions. Other large grocers said they expect to be out of stock on different types of cuts soon.

Sure enough, on Monday Costco joined Kroger, announced it was limiting customers to three packages of meat.

Product Limitations

Costco has implemented limits on certain items to help ensure more members are able to purchase merchandise they want and need. Our buyers and suppliers are working hard to provide essential, high demand merchandise as well as everyday favorites.

Fresh meat purchases are temporarily limited to a total of 3 items per member among the beef, pork and poultry products.

Most if not all other supermarkets will follow suit in enforcing similar strict purchase limits.

With Trump’s EO failing to ease the shortage, and beef supply chains crippled, it is unclear when or how the beef shortage will be resolved, even as prices explode with each passing day, making beef a luxury for America’s 30 million suddenly unemployed who don’t know when their next paycheck will arrive.

While so far the food crisis is limited to beef and to a lesser extent pork (whose price rose to the highest in 6 years today), how long before all other food supply chains are similarly crippled resulting in the kind of food hyperinflation that sparked the Arab Spring protests and rebellions which culminated with overthrown governments across much of northern Africa and the Middle East?

end

This will hurt: 1/5 of all Wendy’s outlets are out of beef as shortages spread

(zerohedge)

A Fifth Of Wendy’s Restaurants Said To Be Out Of Beef As Shortage Spreads

Rolling meat shortages are now underway in the US. We warned several weeks ago that this would begin in the first half of May as a crisis unfolds at the nation’s meat processing plants due to coronavirus outbreaks.

At the moment, the food supply chain is cracking. At least a dozen processing plants have shuttered operations and output reduced at others, resulting in surging wholesale beef prices and shortages at supermarkets.

The first signs of a shortage materialized last Friday when supermarket chain Kroger said that it has put “purchase limits” on ground beef and fresh pork. Now it appears the shortage has hit some fast-food restaurants.

Just as Americans are breaking out of their government-enforced stay-at-home orders and craving fast-food, many have taken to social media to voice outrage that patty shortages are appearing at numerous Wendy’s restaurants in various states.

Stephens analyst James Rutherford noted 18% of Wendy’s restaurants were “completely sold out of beef items as of Monday evening,” reported Bloomberg.

“By our count 1,043 Wendy’s units were selling zero beef items yesterday evening,” but within the figure, about 128 restaurants were still selling beef chili. Rutherford added that the shortage varies across the country and said some restaurants still have full menus, while states like Ohio, Michigan, Tennessee, Connecticut, and New York are “fully out of fresh beef.” The note also said Wendy’s is “more exposed” to meat shortages because of its reliance on fresh beef compared with its competitors.

WXYZ-TV Detroit’s Simon Shaykhet tweeted Monday, “WARREN DRIVE THRU: “I went there for lunch to grab the kids some frosties & everything. They were just like we don’t have any beef today.” ⁦ @Wendys ⁩ customer responds to #beef shortage at fast food location at 10 mile & Ryan.”

Simon Shaykhet WXYZ@simonshaykhet

WARREN DRIVE THRU: “I went there for lunch to grab the kids some frosties & everything. They were just like we don’t have any beef today.” ⁦@Wendys⁩ customer responds to shortage at fast food location at 10 mile & Ryan. ⁦@wxyzdetroit

View image on Twitter

Another social media user tweeted a sign at a Wendy’s that read, “…we are currently experiencing issues with our meat processing supplier and are unable to serve beef products.”

Amber Olivas@amberlyno

@Wendys is this the part where I say…”Where’s the beef?”

View image on Twitter

WJLA-TV Washington, DC, ‘s Victoria Sanchez tweeted, “Just went to Wendy’s and saw some items aren’t available. You can still get a single and double hamburger but not a triple. The employee says the fast-food chain is experiencing meat shortages.”

Victoria Sanchez

@VictoriaSanchez

MEAT SHORTAGE?
Just went to Wendy’s and saw some items aren’t available. You can still get a single and double hamburger but not a triple. The employee says the fast-food chain is experiencing meat shortages. @ABC7News

View image on TwitterView image on TwitterView image on TwitterView image on Twitter

“As you’ve likely heard, beef suppliers across North America are currently facing production challenges,” a statement released by Wendy’s to WYMT Kentucky said.

“Because of this, some of our menu items may be in short supply from time to time at some restaurants in this current environment. We expect this to be temporary, and we’re working diligently to minimize the impact to our customers and restaurants.”

Here are more Twitter users reporting shortages…

G.W. Gras@GeeSteelio

So over the weekend i was going to pre-order my Wendy’s pick up. On the app it only allowed for chicken sandwiches… me being who i am and only wanting a baconator called and was told bc of meat shortage, all beef (pause) orders can only be made at drive thru.

Brotato@_YoBrotato

Wendy’s won’t do 4 for 4 because there’s a meat shortage. I…might..die

adam!@theadamalesch

THERE IS A MEAT.

SHORTAGE. @Wendys

View image on Twitter

Wendy’s stock slipped nearly 4% Tuesday on the news of patty shortages.

According to Forbes, Wendy’s is not the only fast-food restaurant suffering from patty shortages. McDonald’s supply chain in Canada has come under pressure and started to source beef products outside the country.

“Due to unprecedented COVID-19 impacts on the Canadian beef supply chain, we are temporarily adjusting our supply to incorporate beef from outside Canada – from pre-approved McDonald’s suppliers and facilities globally – in order to meet the current demand, effective immediately,” a statement from McDonald’s read. 

And for some humor, here’s a classic Wendy’s commercial titled “Where’s the Beef?.”

endAs expected, the tourism industry collapses: Airbnb lays off 1,900 employees(zerohedge)

Airbnb To Lay Off 1,900 Employees As Tourism Industry Collapses  

Update (1544ET): As per Protocol, here’s part of the email Airbnb CEO Officer Brian Chesky wrote to employees:

“We are collectively living through the most harrowing crisis of our lifetime, and as it began to unfold, global travel came to a standstill,” the email said. “Airbnb’s business has been hit hard, with revenue this year forecasted to be less than half of what we earned in 2019.”

“While we know Airbnb’s business will fully recover, the changes it will undergo are not temporary or short-lived,” he said. “Because of this, we need to make more fundamental changes to Airbnb by reducing the size of our workforce around a more focused business strategy.”

* * *

So about that IPO this year? Well, it seems tough times are here for Airbnb Inc., as a new headline has hit the wires on late Tuesday detailing how the company is expected to lay off up to a quarter of its workforce, or about 1,900 employees, two sources told Reuters.

Employees that are affected by the cuts will receive four months of salary, “accelerated equity vesting, and health insurance for a year,” one source said.

Another source said the official announcement has yet to be made, as staff members will be told about workforce reductions on Tuesday.

Reuters notes that the home rental startup suspended all its marketing activities to save $800 million in 2020 as the tourism industry has collapsed because of coronavirus lockdowns. The company has also said the founders will take no pay for six months, while executives will see a 50% reduction in salary.

We noted last week that the pandemic had crushed overleveraged Airbnb Superhosts as bookings collapse.

Market-research firm AirDNA LLC. said $1.5 billion in bookings have vanished since mid-March. Airbnb gave all hosts a refund, along with Superhosts, a bailout (in Airbnb terms they called it a “grant”).

So about that IPO? Well, it seems the virus has put it on pause…

end

This is a very important read from Michael Snyder

(courtesy Michael Snyder)

Here’s Why The US Economy Would Continue To Crash Even If All Lockdowns Were Lifted Immediately…

Authored by Michael Snyder via TheMostImportantNews.com,

COVID-19 has created an enormous amount of fear, and that fear is doing far more damage to the economy than the actual virus is.  In an environment of fear, financial institutions become a lot tighter with their money, and that inevitably causes economic activity to slow down.  For example, just consider what happened in 2008.  Mortgage lending standards suddenly became much more strict, and that greatly contributed to the horrific housing price crash which left millions upon millions of Americans underwater on their mortgages.  Unfortunately, this coronavirus pandemic has created a wave of fear that is far greater than what we experienced during the last recession, and that has enormous implications for the months ahead.

Extremely loose lending standards helped create debt-fueled “booms” throughout our economy in recent years, but now lending standards are going in the complete opposite direction very rapidly.

For instance, Chase is now requiring a credit score of at least 700 for all new home loans, and they are one of the financial institutions that is now requiring a down payment of at least 20 percent

A Chase spokesperson confirmed that starting April 14, new mortgage applicants will need a minimum credit score of 700 and a down payment of 20%. Refinancing applications for non-Chase mortgages will also need the same score. Chase didn’t disclose its previous lending standards but the average downpayment for first-time home buyers is around 6%, according to a 2018 survey from the National Association of Realtors.

If you own your home, would you have been approved for a mortgage under the new Chase standards?

And Chase is far from alone.  In fact, most major mortgage lenders have now tightened up, and Redfin is estimating that about a quarter of all home buyers last year would not have qualified under the new standards.

So if you remove about a quarter of all buyers from the marketplace moving forward, what happens to the housing market?

Yes, there will be an implosion, and it will happen no matter whether coronavirus lockdowns are in effect or not.

And home equity loans are going to be hit even harder.  As I discussed last week, Wells Fargo is no longer taking HELOC applications at all.

So now matter how good your credit is, you simply cannot get a home equity line of credit from Wells Fargo at this point.

This is what fear does.

We see similar things happening in the credit card industry.  Standards have been greatly tightened for new customers, and in some instances existing customers are having their limits slashed or their cards suddenly canceled.  The following comes from Newsweek…

Analysts warn that credit card companies are lowering credit limits and canceling cards—often without warning—amid the pandemic-induced economic crisis, just as they did during the Great Recession.

If you think that this won’t have a dramatic impact on the U.S. economy, then you probably haven’t been paying attention.

Our economy is a consumer driven economy, and if consumers don’t have access to easy credit there is no way in the world that economic activity will return to previous levels.

Of course even if they did have access to easy credit, many Americans are so afraid of this virus that they have no intention of resuming normal economic patterns any time soon

Here’s hoping you enjoyed the last movie or concert you attended, because if the results of a new survey are accurate, it may be a long, long time before such events are ever popular again. According to the research, 40% of Americans plan to avoid public spaces unless “absolutely necessary” long after the coronavirus pandemic has subsided.

The survey, commissioned by Vital Vio, asked 1,000 U.S. adults about how they envision every day life in the wake of the coronavirus. All in all, it looks like there are suddenly a whole lot more germaphobes in the land of the free. Over four in five (82%) said they are now more aware of, and concerned about, cleaning protocols in public areas. Additionally, 58% are more suspicious about their friends’ and family’s hygiene habits.

And a lot of companies are also going to be extremely hesitant to “return to normal” because of the threat of lawsuits.

Earlier today, I was stunned to learn that 771 coronavirus-related lawsuits have already been filed…

Hundreds of lawsuits stemming from the coronavirus pandemic are rapidly amassing in state and federal courts, the first wave of litigation challenging decisions made early during the crisis by corporations, insurance companies and governments.

Claims have been filed against hospitals and senior-living facilities, airlines and cruise lines, fitness chains and the entertainment industry – 771 as of Friday, according to a database compiled by Hunton Andrews Kurth, an international law firm tracking cases that emerge from the pandemic.

Isn’t that insane?

I have repeatedly warned my readers that it will be exceedingly difficult to “return to normal” in our overly litigious society, but even I didn’t expect so many lawsuits so soon.

And this is just the beginning.  Eventually there will be thousands upon thousands of coronavirus lawsuits, and they will tie up our courts for the foreseeable future.

This pandemic just seems to be magnifying everything that is wrong with our society, and at this point the future looks so bleak that even perpetually optimistic Warren Buffett is throwing in the cards

A 95% plunge in passengers. Billions in losses. A rush for new debt. A recovery that executives expect to take years. Coronavirus is roiling the airline industry and the Oracle of Omaha has seen enough.

Warren Buffett told investors Saturday that Berkshire Hathaway has sold its entire stakes in the four largest U.S. airlines — AmericanDeltaSouthwestUnited — as the pandemic upends another bet on the sector that the famed investor had shunned for years before a surprise return in 2016.

Buffett understands that fear of this virus is going to paralyze air travel for a very long time to come, and he is getting out while he still can.

But if our society cannot even handle COVID-19, what will things look like once much worse things start happening?

It has been sobering to watch how rapidly our “snowflake society” has melted during this pandemic.

Now virtually the entire nation is paralyzed by fear, and the once great U.S. economy is crashing all around us.

And the really bad news is that this is just the beginning…

end

iv) Swamp commentaries)

NBC’s chairman Lack removed from office as NY attorney General investigating sexual misconduct

(zerohedge)

Ex-NBC Producer Says NY Attorney General Investigating Sexual Misconduct Claims; Slams Outgoing Chairman Andy Lack

Former NBC News producer Rich McHugh slammed his former network following the departure of NBC News/MSNBC chairman Andy Lack.

Lack and NBC News president Noah Oppenheim came under fire after trying to kill negative reports about Harvey Weinstein by Ronan Farrow, who McHugh worked with. Lack has denied spiking the story, while McHugh – appearing on Fox News with Tucker Carlson, slammed him for “protecting a serial predator for being a major Democratic donor,” according to Mediaite.

When Carlson asked if it’s true that the New York attorney general’s office is “investigating NBC on sexual abuse, sexual harassment claims, and no one’s been charged, but people have come in and been interviewed,” Lack responded:

“Yes, I have, Tucker. That is true. I am aware of it … I have been looking into it for a story. It was the New York attorney general’s office civil division. We’re not sure if it could lead to anything criminal, but I do know they have been looking into this and interviewing employees over a number of months.”

McHugh had this to say about Lack:

“One has to assume that they caught wind of this investigation because it’s been going on for months and they have spoken to dozens of employees. I believe that has a role to play in it. There’s new management at the top and so they have decided we’re going to try to get away from this black eye who presided over the Harvey Weinstein story and the Lauer disgrace and all of it. This is a good first step, I should say. I should point out that I’ve spoken spoken to a number of women, victims who worked at NBC, and they say, you know, the fact that Andy Lack gets to walk out of the building on his own accord is a disgrace. Their careers have been ruined. I personally left NBC largely because of things that he and other executives did with our reporting. The fact that he can just kind of walk away is upsetting.”

Watch:

Lola Netty@TXTrumpette89

Ex-NBC producer Rich McHugh blasts outgoing Chairman Andy Lack, says NY AG’s office probing the network

Embedded video

Lola Netty@TXTrumpette89

Carlson started his interview with McHugh saying he’s heard that the New York attorney general’s office is “investigating NBC on sexual abuse, sexual harassment claims, and no one’s been charged, but people have come in and been interviewed.”

Embedded video

END

An Amazon VP making over one million dollars per year quits over Bezos firing whistleblowers.  They were complaining of poor working conditions. Bezos refuses to keep the areas safe for them to work in.

(zerohedge)

Amazon VP Quits “In Dismay” Over Bezos’ “Chickensh*t Firing Of Whistleblowers”

While Amazon warehouse employees were striking on May Day, a top engineer at Amazon Web Services (AWS) “quit in dismay” over the company’s “firing of whistleblowers who were making noise about warehouse employees frightened of Covid-19.”

In a blog post titled “Bye, Amazon,” Tim Bray, a distinguished engineer at AWS, detailed how employees who signed a petition demanding virus-related workplace protections were fired. He claims several people were “fired on the spot” in early April after sending out an email announcing a video call had been set up to discuss workplace safety during the pandemic.

Tim Bray

@timbray

Friday was my last day at Amazon: https://www.tbray.org/ongoing/When/202x/2020/04/29/Leaving-Amazon 
[Server’s running a little hot but give it time, it’ll come through.]

“The justifications were laughable; it was clear to any reasonable observer that they were turfed for whistleblowing,” Bray said in the blog post.

He spent more than five years at Amazon, following positions at Google and Sun, but in the past, he’s called Amazon “the best job I’ve ever had.” However, the breaking point for Bray was when several employees were fired, including Emily Cunningham and Maren Costa, who both criticized the company’s treatment of employees during the COVID-19 crisis. Amazon said both employees were fired for “repeatedly violating internal policies.”

Before Bray left his million-dollar per year job, he voiced his frustration through official channels before resigning last Friday.

“That done, remaining an Amazon VP would have meant, in effect, signing off on actions I despised. So I resigned,” he wrote. The victims weren’t abstract entities but real people; here are some of their names: Courtney Bowden, Gerald Bryson, Maren Costa, Emily Cunningham, Bashir Mohammed, and Chris Smalls. I’m sure it’s a coincidence that every one of them is a person of color, a woman, or both. Right?”

We noted Chris Smalls back in late March. He was a warehouse employee at an Amazon Staten Island facility, who was fired after he started a strike to force better safety checks after colleagues contracted the virus.

According to Mediaite, Bray added some phrases that described the firings of the whistleblowers:

Chickenshit.”

“Kill the messenger.”

“Never heard of the Streisand effect.”

“Designed to create a climate of fear.”

“Like painting a sign on your forehead saying ‘Either guilty, or has something to hide.’”

A leaked memo obtained by Vice News revealed how an Amazon executive referred to Smalls as “not smart or articulate” during a meeting with Jeff Bezos.

Amazon made $33 million per hour during the first quarter as consumers panic hoarded products while warehouse employees worked in unsafe spaces as some contracted the virus.

“And at the end of the day, the big problem isn’t the specifics of COVID-19 response. It’s that Amazon treats the humans in the warehouses as fungible units of pick-and-pack potential. Only that’s not just Amazon, it’s how 21st-century capitalism is done,” Bray concluded.

END

Who else but Wells Fargo!!

The Feds Are Already Investigating Wells Fargo For Botching Small Business Relief Program

From the moment Secretary Mnuchin laid out the White House’s plan to use banks and credit unions as the intermediary to dole out the hundreds of billions of dollars in “emergency liquidity” approved as part of the virus bailout, we anticipated a wild ride ahead. And when the administration begged the biggest banks to keep the taps running at the expense of rooting out fraud, we knew that, too, was bound to end poorly.

The result? The PPP successfully doled out the funds, though whether the businesses that received them actually needed the money isn’t really clear. And just hours after the DoJ filed the first fraud charges tied to the program against two middle-aged small business owners from Rhode Island, we suspected it was only a matter of time before the administration renegged on its promise and threw the bankers under the bus.

It was actually only a matter of hours, because as Wells Fargo revealed Tuesday afternoon, the Feds are already digging around for a Wall Street scapegoat, and where better to start than the bank that has become almost synonymous with “consumer banking fraud and abuse”.

stochastic Alphaholic@Alphaholic1

This is extremely because Wells Fargo is the easiest target – than bac or jp or usb https://twitter.com/cfromhertz/status/1257758107406655500 

Christian Fromhertz@cfromhertz

$WFC *WELLS FARGO FACING GOVERNMENT INQUIRIES INTO PPP LOANS: FILING

In its 10-Q, Wells reported the following under “Legal Actions”:

Plaintiffs have filed putative class actions in state and federal court in Texas, California, and Colorado against the Company. The actions seek damages and injunctive relief related to the Company’s offering of Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loans under the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act. The Company has also received formal and informal inquiries from federal and state governmental agencies regarding its offering of PPP loans.

The more cynical among us couldn’t help but laugh.

FlattenTheCurve@WillardOfOdds

of course wells fargo already messed up PPP. clownshow.

CÆTUS@caetuscap

*WELLS FARGO FACING GOVERNMENT INQUIRIES INTO PPP LOANS: FILING

of course they are.

Ellen Chang@EllenYChang

Wow, Wells Fargo moved fast. I bet no one is surprised. https://twitter.com/cfromhertz/status/1257758107406655500 

Christian Fromhertz@cfromhertz

$WFC *WELLS FARGO FACING GOVERNMENT INQUIRIES INTO PPP LOANS: FILING

In the filing, the bank also referenced a lawsuit filed by a California-based small business alleges that Wells Fargo unfairly prioritized businesses seeking large loan amounts, while the government’s small business agency has said that PPP loan applications would be processed on a first-come, first-served basis.

We wouldn’t be surprised to learn that the government is looking into pursuing this angle as well.

$WFC took stumbled into the close as investors worried that the bank might have botched its best chance to redeem itself in the eyes of the public.

END

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

As we warned, conditioned traders would play for a Monday rally.  However, ESMs effectively traded sideways, with a slight upward bias from 22:00 ET on Sunday night until the last-hour manipulation.  The rally was largely due to traders buying trading sardines.  The NY FANG+ Index rallied 1.4%.

Monday’s lame action gives us an opportunity to philosophize on Buffett’s decision to hibernate.

Warren Buffett, while mouthing upbeat platitudes about the US economy on Saturday, is sitting on his wallet.  He stated on Saturday, “The range of possibilities on the economic side are still extraordinarily wide. We do not know exactly what happens when you voluntarily shut down a substantial portion of your society… and I don’t really know of any parallel.”

In another breath, Warren said, “The American magic has always prevailed and it will do so again.”  US government entities are in their most authoritarian states since the Civil War.  Does Buffett fear that the ginormous amount of additional socialism in the US will be hard to rescind – and Americans are becoming addicted to an increasing quantity of socialism and big government?

Tighter scrutiny of derivatives clearers proposed amid standoff with banks

Global regulators have proposed tighter scrutiny of clearing houses handling trillions of dollars in derivatives trades after calls from banks for them to be better funded to withstand extreme stress…

    Clearing transactions in the $640 trillion over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives market became mandatory after the 2007-09 financial crisis to make trading more transparent…Mandatory clearing has led to a swelling in clearing houses, with London Stock Exchange’s LCH clearing a record $402 trillion worth of interest rate derivatives in the first quarter

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-derivatives-clearing-regulator-idUSKBN22F0WH

Faced with 20,000 dead, care homes seek shield from lawsuits

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/health/faced-with-19000-dead-care-homes-seek-shield-from-lawsuits

From personal experience with parents, grandparents and siblings, it is extremely difficult to find nursing and convalescence homes that are just adequate.  From the negligence and malfeasance that we saw, it is no surprise that there are so many Covid-19 deaths at nursing homes.  PS – Someone even stole dad’s identity and charged thousands of dollars of computers to him.

Exclusive: Internal Chinese report warns Beijing faces Tiananmen-like global backlash over virus

The report, presented early last month by the Ministry of State Security to top Beijing leaders including President Xi Jinping, concluded that global anti-China sentiment is at its highest since the 1989 Tiananmen Square crackdown, the sources said.  As a result, Beijing faces a wave of anti-China sentiment led by the United States in the aftermath of the pandemic and needs to be prepared in a worst-case scenario for armed confrontation between the two global powers, according to people familiar with the report’s content, who declined to be identified given the sensitivity of the matter…

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-china-sentiment-ex/exclusive-internal-chinese-report-warns-beijing-faces-tiananmen-like-global-backlash-over-virus-idUSKBN22G19C

Trump’s not the only one blaming China. Americans increasingly are, too.

China’s role in creating or worsening the global pandemic will be a key election issue this fall

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/05/04/get-ready-an-election-all-about-china/

WaPo: The pandemic is pushing America into a mental health crisis [Including TDS?]

Data show depression and anxiety are already roiling the nation… Nearly half of Americans report the coronavirus crisis is harming their mental health, according to a Kaiser Family Foundation poll…

[As predicted by past economic downturns]  https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/05/04/mental-health-coronavirus/

@jsolomonReports: Virginia to begin double-counting multiple positive coronavirus cases. The new policy may serve to sharply drive up case numbers Health officials will begin reporting “the number of unique people tested per day rather than the number of unique people who have been tested at any point during the response,” the new policy states… [If a person is tested + on Mon & again on Tues; that’s two positives]  https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/coronavirus/virginia-begin-double-counting-positive-coronavirus-cases

Trump blasts George W. Bush for not speaking out against impeachment ‘hoax’ – The George W. Bush Presidential Center… released a three-minute clip on Twitter where the former commander-in-chief reminded Americans “how small our differences are in the face of this shared threat.”… “@PeteHegseth ‘Oh bye the way, I appreciate the message from former President Bush, but where was he during Impeachment calling for putting partisanship aside,” Trump tweeted, citing comments from the “Fox & Friends” host. “He was nowhere to be found in speaking up against the greatest Hoax in American history!” Trump added…  https://nypost.com/2020/05/03/trump-blasts-bush-for-not-speaking-out-against-impeachment-hoax/

Trump wants Comcast to probe MSNBC’s Joe Scarborough over Florida ‘cold case’

Lori Klausutis, a 28-year-old intern who was found dead in Scarborough’s Fort Walton Beach office in Florida when he was a congressman… https://nypost.com/2020/05/04/trump-wants-comcast-to-probe-joe-scarborough-over-cold-case/

Gen. Flynn’s Initial Law Firm Covington and Burling Defies Court Request – Resists Turning over Eric Holder Phone Records on Flynn Case       https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/05/gen-flynns-initial-law-firm-covington-burling-defies-court-resists-turning-eric-holder-phone-records-flynn-case/

 

Illinois releases 4,000 prisoners early, including 146 sex offenders, 64 murderers [Need room to incarcerate social distancing and shutdown violators]

https://magamedia.org/2020/05/04/illinois-releases-4000-prisoners-early-including-146-sex-offenders-64-murderers/

END

Well that is all for today

I will see you WEDNESDAY night.

 

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