MAY 8//GOLD DOWN $7.00 TO $1709/65 BUT SILVER SHINES UP 11 CENTS TO $15.48//FUTURES OVER SPOT IN SILVER RISES TO 23 CENTS//GOLD TONNAGE STANDING AT THE COMEX; 26.167 TONNES AND SILVER HAS 45.390 MILLION OZ STANDING//CORONAVIRUS UPDATE///WORST JOBS REPORT EVER: 20.5 MILLION PEOPLE LOST THEIR JOBS//

GOLD:$1709.65  DOWN $7.00   The quote is London spot price

 

 

 

 

Silver:$15.48  UP 11 CENTS

 

 

Closing access prices:  London spot

 

 

i)Gold : $1704.50  LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

 

ii)SILVER:  $15.45//LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

CLOSING FUTURES PRICES:  KEY MONTHS

 

MAY COMEX GOLD:  XXX

 

JUNE GOLD:  $1713.70  CLOSE 1.30 PM//   SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE JUNE: $4.05.//PREMIUMS WENT UP AGAIN

 

CLOSING SILVER FUTURE MONTH

 

SILVER MAY COMEX CLOSE;   $15.71…1:30 PM.//SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE MAY:  23 CENTS  PER OZ//PREMIUMS UP AGAIN

 

 

the gold market continues to be broken as future prices are much higher than spot prices.  The comex is desperate to fix things but they have no available gold.

If one is to buy gold and or gold coins, the price is around $2800. usa per oz

and silver; $31.00 per oz//

 

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN: YOU ARE NOW WITNESSING FIRST HAND THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN PAPER GOLD/SILVER AND THE REAL PHYSICAL STUFF!!

DO NOT PAY ANY ATTENTION TO WHAT THE CROOKS ARE DOING AT THE COMEX AND LONDON LBMA..PHYSICAL IS THE NAME OF THE GAME AND NOTHING ELSE

 

COMEX DATA

 

 

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING:  451/1141

ISSUED:  806

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: MAY 2020 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,721.800000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 05/07/2020 DELIVERY DATE: 05/11/2020
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
072 C GOLDMAN 15
118 H MACQUARIE FUT 174
132 C SG AMERICAS 30
135 H RAND 3
152 C DORMAN TRADING 3
323 H HSBC 30
355 C CREDIT SUISSE 30
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 62
624 C BOFA SECURITIES 25
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 63
657 H MORGAN STANLEY 250
661 C JP MORGAN 806 451
685 C RJ OBRIEN 3
686 C INTL FCSTONE 22
690 C ABN AMRO 6 197
732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 11
737 C ADVANTAGE 5 23
800 C MAREX SPEC 9 13
905 C ADM 51
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 1,141 1,141
MONTH TO DATE: 6,177

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  MAY CONTRACT: 1141 NOTICE(S) FOR 114,100 OZ (3.5489 tonnes)

 

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  6177 NOTICES FOR 617700 OZ  (19.213 TONNES)

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR MAY

 

 

8 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR  40,000  OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month: 7090 for 35,450,000 oz

 

BITCOIN MORNING QUOTE  $9933 DOWN  59 

 

BITCOIN AFTERNOON QUOTE.: $9941 DOWN 42

 

GLD AND SLV INVENTORIES:

WITH GOLD DOWN $7.00: AND NO PHYSICAL TO BE FOUND ANYWHERE:

WITH ALL REFINERS CLOSED//MEXICO ORDERING ALL MINES SHUT:   WHERE ARE THEY GETTING THE “PHYSICAL”?

 

A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY//

 

A STRONG  PAPER DEPOSIT OF 5.85 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//

 

GLD: 1,081.65 TONNES OF GOLD//

 

 

WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: AND WITH NO SILVER AROUND

 

A MONSTROUS CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV///

A HUGE  4.661 MILLION OZ OF PAPER SILVER WAS ADDED INTO THE SV//

 

RESTING SLV INVENTORY TONIGHT:

SLV: 417.785  MILLION OZ./

 

 

 

 

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Let us have a look at the data for today

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

IN SILVER THE COMEX OI ROSE  BY A HUGE SIZED 3953 CONTRACTS FROM 132,725 UP TO 136,678 AND CLOSER TO OUR NEW RECORD OF 244,710, (FEB 25/2020. THE HUGE SIZED GAIN IN OI OCCURRED WITH  OUR 45 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. IT SEEMS THAT THE GAIN IN COMEX OI IS DUE TO STRONG  BANKER SHORT COVERING PLUS A STRONG EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE, ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION, ACCOMPANYING  A SMALL INCREASE IN SILVER OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR MAY. WE HAD A NET GAIN IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 5539 CONTRACTS  (SEE CALCULATIONS BELOW).

 

 

 

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A STRONG AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A  STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE:   MARCH:  00 AND MAY: 0 AND JULY: 1182  AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  1182 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 1182 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 1182 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 3.485 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 45 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

7.32     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

2.630     MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOV.

20.970   MILLION OZ  FINAL STANDING IN DEC

5.075     MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JAN

1.480    MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN FEB

23.005  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAR

4.660  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR APRIL

45.390 MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING FOR MAY

 

THURSDAY, AGAIN OUR CROOKS USED COPIOUS PAPER IN ORDER TO LIQUIDATE SILVER’S PRICE…AND THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE 45 CENTS).. AND, OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS  WERE SOMEWHAT SUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE SOME AMOUNT OF SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR POSITIONS. THE STRONG GAIN AT THE COMEX ACCOMPANIED : i)  A SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS 2) A SMALL GAIN IN SILVER OZ STANDING FOR MAY, HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING  AND 4) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AS  WE DID HAVE A  NET GAIN OF 5135 CONTRACTS OR 25.675 MILLION OZ ON THE TWO EXCHANGES! YOU CAN BET THE FARM THAT OUR BANKER  ARE DESPERATE TO LIQUIDATE THEIR HUGE SHORT POSITIONS IN SILVER

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY /FOR MONTH OF MAY:

5742 CONTRACTS (FOR 6 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 5742 CONTRACTS) OR 28.710 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 957 CONTRACTS OR 4.705 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF APRIL: 28.710 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 4.10% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

 

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2020 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          1,017.55 MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2020 EFP TOTALS SO FAR: 181.61 MILLION OZ

FEB 2020 EFP’S TOTAL :  ……     259.600 MILLION OZ

MARCH EFP’S …..                     452.280 MILLION OZ  //TOTALS//AND A NEW RECORD FOR THE MONTH)

APRIL EFP                               95.355 MILLION OZ.  (EX. FOR PHYSICALS BECOMING A LOT LESS)

MAY EFP SO FAR:                   28.710 MILLION OZ

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE FOR THE PAST 30 DAYS IS A LOT LESS.  NO DOUBT THAT THE COST TO CARRY THESE THINGS HAS EXPLODED AND AS SUCH CANNOT BE DONE AS FREQUENTLY AS BEFORE.

 

RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 43953, WITH OUR 45 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ///THURSDAY THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 1182 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER

 

TODAY WE GAINED A HUGE SIZED OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:  5135 CONTRACTS (WITH OUR 45 CENT GAIN IN PRICE)

 

THE TALLY//EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

i.e 1182 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH A HUGE SIZED INCREASE OF 3953 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 45 CENT GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER/ AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $15.37 // THURSDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY. 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 0.7050 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 100.7% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW  MAR DELIVERY MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 8 NOTICE(S) FOR  40,000 OZ OF SILVER.

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018. AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.70//TODAY’S RECORD OF 244,705 IS SET WITH A PRICE OF: 18.91 (FEB 25/2020)

 

.

 

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 10.025 MILLION OZ/ SEPT 43.030 MILLION OZ//OCT: 7.665 MILLION OZ//   NOV: 2.630 MILLION OZ//DEC:  20.970 MILLION OZ; JAN:  5.075 MILLION OZ.//FEB 1.480 MILLION OZ//MAR: 23.005 MILLION OZ/APRIL 4.660 MILLION OZ//MAY  45.360 MILLION OZ
  2. THE  RECORD PRIOR TO TODAY WAS SET IN FEB 25/2018:  244,710 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $18.90//.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

 

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 

GOLD

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A VERY STRONG SIZED 10,408 CONTRACTS TO 504,036 AND CLOSER TO OUR NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE VERY STRONG SIZED GAIN OF COMEX OI OCCURRED WITH OUR HUGE  COMEX GAIN IN PRICE  OF $29.65 /// COMEX GOLD TRADING// THURSDAY// WE  HAD CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING , A SMALL INCREASE IN GOLD OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX, ALONG WITH ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION ACCOMPANYING A GOOD  EX. FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. THIS ALL HAPPENED WITH OUR STRONG GAIN  IN THE PAPER PRICE OF GOLD.

WE HAD A VOLUME OF 7  4 -GC CONTRACTS

 

WE GAINED A GOOD SIZED 12,789 CONTRACTS  (39.78 TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

 

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

 

 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 2381 CONTRACTS:

CONTRACTS, FEB>  CONTRACTS; MARCH 00 APRIL: 0. MAY: 0, AND JUNE 2381.; DEC 0 AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO//TOTAL: 2381.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 504,539. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 12,789 CONTRACTS: 10,408 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 2381 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 12,789 CONTRACTS OR 39.78 TONNES.THURSDAY, WE HAD A GAIN OF $29.65 IN GOLD TRADING……

AND WITH THAT GAIN IN  PRICE, WE HAD A HUGE SIZED GAIN IN  TOTAL/TWO EXCHANGES GOLD TONNAGE OF 39.78 TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS/OFFICIAL SECTOR WERE SUPPLYING INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER WITH RECKLESS ABANDON. THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE (IT ROSE $29.65). AND IT ALSO SEEMS THAT THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE ANY GOLD LONGS FROM THE GOLD ARENA WAS UNSUCCESSFUL  (SEE BELOW).

4 GC VOLUME: 7  // 

 

 

END

 

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:

WE HAD  A FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS  (2381) ACCOMPANYING THE VERY STRONG GAIN IN COMEX OI  (10,408 OI): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES:  13,292 CONTRACTS.  WE NO DOUBT HAD 1 )HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING, 2.)A SMALL INCREASE IN OUNCES STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR THE FRONT MAY MONTH,  3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AND  …ALL OF THIS WAS COUPLED WITH THAT STRONG GAIN IN GOLD PRICE TRADING//THURSDAY

 

SPREADING OPERATIONS

 

OUR SPREADING OPERATION HAS NOW SWITCHED INTO GOLD…..

SPREADING OPERATION FOR OUR NEWCOMERS:

WE HAVE NOW COMMENCED IN SILVER THE ILLEGAL SPREADING OPERATION \ FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS:

 

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW STOPPED IN SILVER AS THEY NOW BEGIN TO MORPH INTO GOLD AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW FRONT MONTH WILL BE JUNE.

 

 

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEW, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE SPREADERS AND THE CRIMINAL ELEMENT BEHIND IT:

 HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

 

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR SILVER..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR GOLD.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

 

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

.

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO GOLD AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX SILVER OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE FOR GOLD:

 

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF MAY. BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN GOLD WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JUNE), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

 

 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2020 INCLUDING TODAY

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF MAY : 17,635 CONTRACTS OR 1,763,500 oz OR 54.85 TONNES (6 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 2939 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

 

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 6 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 54.85 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2019, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 54.85/3550 x 100% TONNES =2.816% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD HAS DISSIPATED THIS MONTHTHE COST TO THE BANKERS TO CARRY THESE CONTRACTS IN LONDON IS BECOMING TOO GREAT FOR THEM.

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2020 TO DATE   2621.20  TONNES

JANUARY 2220 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE; : 570.19 TONNES

FEB 2020 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE :            653.78 TONNES

 

MARCH TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE                1,098.93  TONNES  (*AND A NEW ALL TIME RECORD ISSUANCE//22 DAYS)

APRIL TOTAL EFP. ISSUANCE:               243.45  TONNES  (EFP ISSUANCE BECOMING A LOT LESS)

MAY TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                     54.85 TONNES

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 3953 CONTRACTS FROM 132,725 UP TO 136,678 AND FURTHER FROM OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 3/4 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

ALL OF THE GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS DUE TO 1) STRONG BANKER SHORT COVERING , 2) THE ISSUANCE OF A GOOD SIZED NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (SEE BELOW), 3) A SMALL INCREASE IN SILVER OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR MAY  4) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION 

 

EFP ISSUANCE 1182 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 FOR FEB. 0; FOR MAR  0:  AND MAY: 0 JULY: 1182 CONTRACTS   AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1182 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI GAIN  OF 3953 CONTRACTS TO THE 1182 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A VERY STRONG GAIN OF 5135 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 25.675 MILLION  OZ!!! WITH THE 45 CENT GAIN IN PRICE///

 

 

RESULT: A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE 45 CENT LOSS IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// THURSDAY. WE ALSO HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED 1182 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

 

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

(report Harvey)

 

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)FRIDAY MORNING/ THURSDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 23,82 POINTS OR 0.83%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 249.54 POINTS OR 1.94%   /The Nikkei closed UP 504.32 POINTS OR 2.56%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .70%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 7.0759 /Oil DOWN TO 23.74 dollars per barrel for WTI and 29.68 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 7.0759 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0870 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED//CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 10,408 CONTRACTS TO 504,036 MOVING CLOSER TO  OUR  RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020).  AND THIS STRONG COMEX OI GAIN WAS SET WITH OUR HUGE GAIN OF $29.65 IN GOLD PRICING /THURSDAY’S COMEX TRADING//). WE ALSO HAD A FAIR EFP ISSUANCE (2381 CONTRACTS),.  THUS WE HAD 1) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AT THE COMEX AND 2)   ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AND 3)  ANOTHER STRONG INCREASE IN GOLD OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX //  APRIL/GOLD…  AS WE ENGINEERED A CONSIDERABLE GAIN ON TWO EXCHANGES OF 12,789 CONTRACTS.

WE AGAIN HAD 0    4 -GC VOLUME//open interest 7

 

 

 

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A GOOD SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 2381 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

 FEB: 0; MARCH 00 AND APRIL: 0, MAY: 0  JUNE : 2381 AND 0 FOR DEC AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2381 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:  12,789 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 2381 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A STRONG SIZED 10,408 COMEX CONTRACTS.  THE BANKERS PROVIDED ALL THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER TO WHICH OUR LONGS DUTIFULLY ACCEPTED AS THEY GOBBLED UP A GOOD AMOUNT OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WITH A HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING, ACCOMPANYING A SMALL INCREASE IN COMEX GOLD TONNAGE // STANDING FOR DELIVERY……(SEE CALCULATIONS BELOW). ALL OF THE ABOVE OCCURRED WITH A LARGE RISE IN PRICE

 

THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT ROSE BY $29.65).  BUT, THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING ANY LONGS, AS THE TOTAL GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES REGISTERED 39.78 TONNES.

 

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ::12,789 CONTRACTS OR 1,278,900 OZ OR 39.78 TONNES. 

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT COMMODITY FUTURES OPEN INTEREST SHOULD APPROXIMATE 3% OF TOTAL PRODUCTION.  IN GOLD THE WORLD PRODUCES AROUND 3500 TONNES PER YEAR BUT ONLY 2200 TONNES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE WEST (THUS EXCLUDING RUSSIA, CHINA ETC..WHO KEEP 100% OF THEIR PRODUCTION)

THUS IN GOLD WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:  504,036 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS X 100 OZ PER CONTRACT = 50.40 MILLION OZ/32,150 OZ PER TONNE =  1567 TONNES

THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST REPRESENTS 1567/2200 OR 71.30% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF GOLD.

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 268,894 contracts

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY335,154 contracts// volumes very low

MAY 8/2020

MAY GOLD CONTRACT MONTH

 

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
12,892.152 oz
BRINKS
LOOMIS
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz 88,359.064 oz

Brinks

Manfra

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

123,168.598

OZ

BRINKS

HSBC

LOOMIS

 

 

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
1141 notice(s)
 114,100 OZ
(3.5489 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
2236 contracts
(223600 oz)
6.954 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
6177 notices
617700 OZ
19.213 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

 

We had 2 deposits into the dealer

i) Into Brinks:  16,081.51 oz

ii) Into Manfra:  72,268.554 oz

total dealer deposits: 88,350.064   oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had 3 deposit into the customer account

i) Into HSBC:  32,103.21 oz

ii) Into Loomis;  81,178.75 oz   or (2525 kilobars)

iii) Into Brinks: 9886.638 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total deposits: 123,168.598   oz

 

 

we had 2 gold withdrawals from the customer account:

i) Out of Brinks:  64.302 oz  (2 kilobars)

ii) Out of Loomis:  12,827.85 oz (399 kilobars)

 

 

 

 

 

total gold withdrawals; 12,892.152   oz

We had 3  kilobar transactions  +

 

We had 0  4 KC bar volume transactions/7 contracts oi

 

 

 

 

ADJUSTMENTS: 3    

 

i) Out of Brinks:  173,518.947 oz adjusted up to the dealer

Next two: dealer to customer

ii) Out of Scotia:  5206.005 oz adjusted from to the dealer to customer.

and

iii) Out of JPMorgan 599.865 oz adjusted form dealer to customer.

 

 

The front month of May registered a GIGANTIC total of 3377 oi contracts for a loss of 273 contracts. We had 326 notices filed upon yesterday so we GAINED 63 contracts or an additional 6300 oz will stand as these guys REFUSED TO morph into London based forwards and thus negated a fiat bonus

The next delivery month after May is the huge delivery month of June.  Here June saw a  loss OF 7354 contracts DOWN to 310,455 contracts. July has ANOTHER GAIN OF 66 OI contracts  and thus 191 contracts  outstanding.  Next comes August another strong delivery month and here the OI ROSE by 14,2543 contracts up to 103,265 contracts.

 

 

We had 1141 notices filed today for 114,100 oz

 

FOR THE  MAY 2020 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 806 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 1141 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 451 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the MAY /2020. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (6177) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  May. (3377 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today (1141 x 100 oz per contract) equals 841,300 OZ OR 26.167 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this  non active month of May

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the May/2020 contract month:

No of notices served (6177)x 100 oz + 3377 OI) for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (1141) x 100 oz which equals 841,300 oz standing OR 26.167 TONNES in this non active delivery month. This is  a record amount for gold standing for any May delivery month or any non active delivery month.

We gained  63 contracts or an additional 63000 oz will  seek out metal on this side of the pond as they refused to morph into London based forwards.

 

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:  BRINKS

3027.500 OZ  REMOVED TO THE PLEDGED ACCOUNT JAN 10.2020/Brinks

144,088.952 oz NOW PLEDGED  JAN 21.2020/HSBC  5.4807 TONNES

3,468,643.910 oz PLEDGED  MARCH 2020  JPMORGAN:  10.788 TONNES

42,548.308.00 PLEDGED  APRIL 3/2020: SCOTIA:            1.3234 tonnes

TOTAL PLEDGED GOLD NOW IN EFFECT:  528,072.303  OZ OR 16.147  TONNES

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES…. WE HAVE 187.78 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS ie. 26.167 tonnes

CALCULATION OF REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SETTLED UPON:

total registered or dealer  6,583,193.328 oz or 204.76  tonnes
which  includes the following:
a) pledged gold held at HSBC   which cannot settled upon   144,088.952 oz x ( 4.4817 TONNES)//
b) pledged gold held at JPMorgan (added March 2020) which cannot be settled upon:  322,144.443 oz (or 10.0200 tonnes)
total pledged gold:
c)  pledged gold at Scotia: 1.3234 tonnes or 42,548.308 oz which cannot be settled  (1.3234 tonnes)
d) pledged gold at Manfra:  17,853.197 oz  which cannot be settled:   (.5553 tonnes)
total weight of pledged:  545,925.500 oz or 16.905 tonnes
thus:
registered gold that can be used to settle upon: 6,037,267.8  (187.78 tonnes)
true registered gold  (total registered – pledged tonnes  6,037,267.8 (187.78 tonnes)
total eligible gold:  15,349,725.897 oz (477.44 tonnes)

total registered, pledged  and eligible (customer) gold;   21,875,482.594 oz 680.42 tonnes (INCLUDES 4 GC GOLD)

total 4 GC gold:   127.79 tonnes

total gold net of 4 GC:  552.63 tonnes

 

end

 

I have compiled  data with respect to registered (or dealer) gold taken on first day notice for each of the past 24 months

The data begins on first day notice for the May month taken on the last day of April 2018. and it continues to present day.  Thus 24 data entry points.

 

I then took, how many deliveries were recorded by the CME for each and every month.  I also included for reference the price of gold on first day notice.

 

The first graph is a logarithmic  graph and the second graph, linear.

You can see the huge explosion of registered gold at the comex along with deliveries.  Gold owners are very clear people.  They would know full well that

the gold at the comex is unallocated and that they would not be stupid enough to keep their gold at the comex especially in the registered category once deliveries are asked upon. If physical gold was present it would be have removed from the comex… It shows there is no gold at the comex.  They are just trading in sticky paper.

 

 

THE GOLD COMEX SEEMS TO BE  UNDER SEVERE ASSAULT FOR PHYSICAL

 

END

 

MAY 7/2020

And now for the wild silver comex results

Total COMEX silver OI ROSE BY A HUGE SIZED 3953 CONTRACTS FROM 132,725  UP TO 136,678(AND CLOSER TO OUR NEW ALL TIME RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON FEB 25.2020(244,710) ECLIPSING OUR PREVIOUS RECORD, AUGUST 25/2018 RECORD (244,196).  THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) . THE HUGE OI COMEX GAIN TODAY OCCURRED WITH OUR 45 CENT GAIN IN PRICING//THURSDAY. WE GAINED A TOTAL OF 5539 CONTRACTS IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES.  THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI (TWO EXCHANGES) OCCURRED WITH 1)  A SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS 2) A SMALL INCREASE IN SILVER OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX, 3)  HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING , 4) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION,5) STRONG COMEX GAIN IN OI AND ALL OF THIS OCCURRED WITH OUR 45 CENT GAIN IN PRICE 

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY

THE FRONT DELIVERY OF MAY SAW A HUGE 1996 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS STANDING  AND THUS WE HAD A LOSS OF 123 CONTRACTS.  We had 129 notices filed yesterday so we GAINED 6 contracts or an additional 30,000 oz will  stand at the comex as these guys refused to morph into London based forwards and thus they negated receiving a fiat bonus for their efforts. It sure looks like we have a Harlem Globetrotter vs Washington Generals game on our hands. It looks like there is no silver over here and thus they must travel to London to get the stuff.

 

AFTER MAY WE HAVE THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF JUNE.  HERE JUNE SAW A LOSS OF 18 CONTRACTS FALLING TO 440.

AFTER JUNE COMES THE VERY BIG DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY AND HERE THE OI GAINED 3043 CONTRACTS UP TO 102,747 CONTRACTS

 

 

We, today, had  8 notice(s) FILED  for 40,000, OZ for the APRIL, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

MAY 8/2020

MAY SILVER COMEX CONTRACT MONTH

Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 1,634,398.770 oz
CNT
Delaware
Scotia

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
578,857.775 oz
Brinks
No of oz served today (contracts)
8
CONTRACT(S)
(40,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
1988 contracts
 9,940,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  7090 contracts

35,450,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

i)we had 1 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:   0

ii)into Brinks;  578,857.775 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017, 2018 and onward, has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 160.819 million oz of  total silver inventory or 51.17% of all official comex silver. (160.819 million/314.276 million

 

total customer deposits today: 578,857.775    oz

we had 3 withdrawals:

i) Out of Delaware:  1009.900 oz

 

ii) Out of CNT:  609,668.300 o

iii)  Out of Delaware: 1,023,720.570 oz

 

total withdrawals; 1,634,398.770     oz

We had 1 adjustments:

Out of Brinks:

606,673.360 oz was adjusted out of the dealer and this landed into the customer account of Brinks

 

total dealer silver: 89.838 million

total dealer + customer silver:  314.276 million oz

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

The total number of notices filed today for the MAY 2020. contract month is represented by 8 contract(s) FOR 40,000 oz

 

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in MAY we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 7090 x 5,000 oz = 35,450,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY.(1996) and the number of notices served upon today 8 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the MAY/2019 contract month: 7090 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of MAY (1996)- number of notices served upon today (8) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the MAY contract month.equals 45,390,000 oz.

We GAINED  6 or an additional 30,000 oz will NOT seek out metal on the London side of the pond as they refused a London based forward contract..

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME: 58,492 CONTRACTS //

 

 

FOR YESTERDAY: 55,511 CONTRACTS..,CONFIRMED VOLUME//extremely low volume

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 55511 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 271 million  OZ 34.5% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

 

NPV for Sprott

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV  RISES TO -0.06% ((MAY 8/2020)

2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV  RISES TO +.37% to NAV:   (MAY 8/2020 )

Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ 0.06%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 15.66 TRADING 15.53///NEGATIVE 0.83

END

 

 

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

MAY 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.00 TODAY; A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: A PAPER ADDITION OF 5.85 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1081.65 TONNES

MAY 7/WITH GOLD UP $29.65 TODAY : A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A PAPER ADDITION OF .41 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1075.80 TONNES

MAY 6//WITH GOLD DOWN $17.00 TODAY/ A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A PAPER ADDITION OF 3.68 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1075.39 TONES

MAY 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.65 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER ADDITION OF 3.81 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1071.71 TONNES

MAY 4//WITH GOLD UP $12.00 TODAY//A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE PAPER DEPOSIT OF 11.4 TONNES INTO THE GLD////GOLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 1067.90 TONNES

MAY 1/WITH GOLD UP $8.45 NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1056.50 TONNES

APRIL 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $15.95 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1056.50 TONNES

APRIL 29/WITH  GOLD DOWN $7.65/A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 8.19 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY REST AT 1056.50 TONNES//

APRIL 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.50//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1048.31 TONNES

APRIL 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.75//A HUGE  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 5.85 TONNES INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 1048.31 TONNES

APRIL 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.90 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 1042.46 TONNES

APRIL 23/WITH GOLD UP $10.00 TODAY:  NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 1042.46 TONNES

APRIL 22/WITH GOLD UP $40.75 TODAY:; TWO HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A)A MONSTROUS  3.8 PAPER TONNES WERE ADDED TO THE GLD INVENTORY AND B) ANOTHER HUGE 9.07 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD ADDED LATE IN THE DAY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1042.46 TONNES

APRIL 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $21.60 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MONSTROUS ADDITION OF 7.9 PAPER TONNES TO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1029.59 TONNES

APRIL 20//WITH GOLD UP $10.00 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1021.69 TONNES

APRIL 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $27.80 TODAY: SURPRISINGLY NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1021.69 TONNES TONNES..THE STRING OF 12 STRAIGHT STRONG DEPOSITS ENDS..

APRIL 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.50 TODAY: ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: A STRONG DEPOSIT OF 4.10 TONNES WAS ADDED TO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1021.69 TONNES/12TH STRAIGHT STRONG DEPOSIT

APRIL 15//WITH GOLD DOWN $19.10 TODAY; ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY; A STRONG 7.89 TONNES WAS ADDED TO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1117.59 TONNES.//11TH STRAIGHT STRONG DEPOSIT

APRIL 14/WITH GOLD UP $23.55 TODAY: ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: A STRONG 15.51 TONNES WAS ADDED TO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1009.70 TONNES//THIS IS THE 10TH STRAIGHT STRONG DEPOSIT//THIS IS A FRAUDULENT VEHICLE..THEY HAVE NO PHYSICAL GOLD IN THE TRUST..

APRIL 13//WITH GOLD UP $27.65 TODAY: ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: A STRONG 5.36 TONNES WAS ADDED TO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 994.19 TONNES

APRIL 9 WITH GOLD UP $37.30 TODAY: ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: A STRONG 2.92 TONNES WAS ADDED TO THE GLD//GOLD INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT..988.63 TONNES

APRIL 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $.60//ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY/;; A STRONG 1.45 TONNES WAS ADDED TO THE GLD/GOLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 985.71 TONNES

APRIL 7/WITH GOLD UP $.30: ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 5.27 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 984.26 TONNES

APRIL 6//WITH GOLD UP $32.00//ANOTHER STRONG DEPOSIT INTO THE GLD; A HUGE 7.02 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT : 978.99 TONNES

APRIL 3//WITH GOLD UP $7.80 TODAY//ANOTHER STRONG DEPOSIT OF 3.22 TONNES INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 971.97 TONNES

APRIL 2//WITH GOLD UP $31.80 TODAY: ANOTHER STRONG DEPOSIT OF 1.75 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 968.75 TONNES

APRIL 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.70 TODAY: ANOTHER CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.62 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 967.00 TONNES

MARCH 31//WITH GOLD DOWN $32.70//A MONSTROUS PAPER DEPOSIT OF 10.84 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 964.38 TONNES

MARCH 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.10 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 953.54 TONNES

MARCH 27.WITH GOLD DOWN $16.40: A BIG  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD  A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 4.39 TONES INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 953.54 TONES

MARCH 26//WITH GOLD UP $24.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 13.17 TONNES INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 949.15 TONNES

MARCH 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.40 TODAY//A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 11.99 TONES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY////INVENTORY RESTS AT 935.98 TONNES

MARCH 24//WITH GOLD UP $67.00 TODAY: A HUGE  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 15.80 TONNES OF GOLD INTO GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 923.99 TONNES..THIS PROVES THAT THE GLD IS A FRAUD AS LONDON SUSPENDED DELIVERY AS WELL AS ALL REFINERS.  THEY HAD NO WAY OF GETTING ANY PHYSICAL OZ INTO ITS INVENTORY//

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Inventory rests tonight at

MAY 8/ GLD INVENTORY 1085.61 tonnes*

IN LAST 816 TRADING DAYS:   +135.35 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD

 

LAST 716 TRADING DAYS://+310.49  TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

 

end

 

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

MAY 8/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A MONSTER DEPOSIT OF 4.661 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV..///INVENTORY RESTS AT 417.785 MILLION OZ//

MAY 7/WITH SILVER UP 45 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 413.124 MILLION OZ//

MAY 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 413.124 MILLION OZ//

MAY 5/WITH SILVER UP 17 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 413.124 MILLION OZ///

MAY 4//WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY:2 HUGE PAPER CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.i).A  LARGE 1.399 MILLION OZ OF PAPER SILVER REMOVED FROM THE SLV//..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 411.427 MILLION OZ and ii) A LARGE 1.647 MILLION OZ OF PAPER SILVER ADDED TO THE SLV//  INVENTORY RESTS AT 413.124 MILLION OZ//


MAY 1/WITH SILVER FLAT IN PRICE: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 412.826 MILLION OZ///

APRIL 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 26 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 412.826 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 29/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 412.826 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 28 /WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 412.826 MILLION OZ..

APRIL 27/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT TODAY: TWO SMALL  CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: a) A WITHDRAWAL OF 373,000 OZ FORM THE SLV// b) A SECOND WITHDRAWAL OF 466,000: ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 412.826 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 24//WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 413.665 MILLION OZ

APRIL 23/WITH SILVER UP 0 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.891 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 413.665 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 22/WITH SILVER UP 42 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.865 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 410.774 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 21//WITH SILVER DOWN 60 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER ADDITION OF 1.398 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 412.639 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 20//WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.797 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 414.038 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS TODAY; A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.3999 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 415.437 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 16/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 415.437 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 15//WITH SILVER DOWN 45 CENTS TODAY: TWO HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV TWO HUGE DEPOSITS: A DEPOSIT OF 1.679 MILLION OZ AND ANOTHER 5.222 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 415.437 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 14./WITH SILVER UP 51 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A MASSIVE PAPER DEPOSIT OF XXX MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 408.536 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 13//WITH SILVER DOWN 29 CENTS TODAY;  A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A MASSIVE PAPER DEPOSIT OF 6.155 MILLION OZ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 408.536 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 9/WITH SILVER UP 60 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.84 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 402.381 MILLION OZ.

APRIL 8//WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 401.541 MILLION OZ///

APRIL 7/WITH SILVER UP 26 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 5.766 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 395.826 MILLION OZ

APRIL 6/WITH SILVER UP 50 CENTS TODAY: ANOTHER BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 395.826 MILLION OZ.

APRIL 3//WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 746,000 OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 395.826 MILLION OZ

APRIL 2/WITH SILVER UP 65 CENTS;  A SMALL CHANGE TODAY..A WITHDRAWAL OF .335 MILLION OZ TO PAY FOR FEES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 394.826 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 395.181 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 31/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 1.679 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.181 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 44 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 393.502 MILLION OZ.

MARCH 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A MONSTROUS PAPER DEPOSIT OF 8.115 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV../INVENTORY RESTS AT 393.502  MILLION OZ//

MARCH 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 385.387 MILLION OZ///

MARCH 25/WITH SILVER UP 44 CENTS TODAY: TWO HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: TWO DEPOSITS OF 7.369 MILLION OZ AND 2.239 MILLION OZ OF PAPER SILVER INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 385.387 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 24//WITH SILVER UP 100 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.779 MILLION OZ///

 

 

MAY 8.2020:

SLV INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT

417.785 MILLION OZ.

END

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES/GOLD LENDING RATES:

 

 

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.34/ and libor 6 month duration 0.69

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

GOLD LENDING RATE: – 1.65

GOLD LEASING RATES NEGATIVE//GOLD SCARCE

CENTRAL BANKS CALLING IN ALL GOLD LEASES

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 1.88%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 0.80

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = -1.08

GOLD LEASING RATES NEGATIVE//GOLD SCARCE

CENTRAL BANKS CALLING IN ALL GOLD LEASES

end

 

 

 

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.16/ and libor 6 month duration 0.69

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: – 1.47

NEGATIVE GOLD LEASE RATES:  GOLD SCARCE AND CENTRAL BANKS CALLING IN THEIR BANK LEASES.

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 1.78%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 0.78

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = -1.00

NEGATIVE GOLD LEASE RATES:  GOLD SCARCE AND CENTRAL BANKS CALLING IN THEIR BANK LEASES.

 

end

 

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

 

 

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

A must must read.

It is now time to learn about money…

Alasdair Macleod….

Alasdair Macleod: Time to learn about money

 Section: 

By Alasdair Macleod
GoldMoney, St. Helier, Jersey, Channel Islands
Thursday, May 7, 2020

An unexpected destruction of fiat currency has been advanced by the monetary and fiscal response to the coronavirus. Financial markets have yet to discount the possibility of such an outcome, but in the coming months they are likely to awaken to this danger.

The question arises as to what will replace fiat currencies. In the past the answer has always been gold but today there are cryptocurrencies as well, whose enthusiasts are more aware than most of fiat money’s failings.

… 

This article describes the basics about money, what it is and the role it plays in order to understand what will be required by the eventual replacement for fiat. It concludes that gold will return as the world’s medium of exchange, and secure cryptocurrencies, unable to provide the scalability and stability of value required of a medium of exchange, will be priced in gold after the demise of fiat.

But then the rationale for them will be gone, and with it their function as a store of value. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.goldmoney.com/research/goldmoney-insights/time-to-learn-abou…

Time to learn about money

An unexpected destruction of fiat currency has been advanced by the monetary and fiscal response to the coronavirus. Financial markets have yet to discount the possibility of such an outcome, but in the coming months they are likely to awaken to this danger.

The question arises as to what will replace fiat currencies. In the past the answer has always been gold but today there are cryptocurrencies as well, whose enthusiasts are more aware than most of fiat money’s failings.

This article describes the basics about money, what it is and the role it plays in order to understand what will be required by the eventual replacement for fiat. It concludes that gold will return as the world’s medium of exchange, and secure cryptocurrencies, unable to provide the scalability and stability of value required of a medium of exchange will be priced in gold after the demise of fiat. But then the rationale for them will be gone, and with it their function as a store of value.

The destruction of fiat money

These are strange times. Circumstances are forcing governments to destroy their money by debasing it to pay for their obligations, real and imagined. If central bankers had a grasp of what money really is, they wouldn’t have got into a position where they are forced to use their seigniorage to destroy it. They are so ignorant about catallactics, the fundamentals behind economics, that they cannot see they are destroying the means of exchange they have imposed upon their citizens with far worse consequences than the abandonment of the evils they are trying to defray.[i]

Unless you believe in a financial form of perpetual motion you will know that all else being equal if you double the quantity of money you approximately halve its purchasing power. It is therefore an incontestable fact that if a central bank doubles the quantity of a circulating fiat currency, it is taking to itself half of the value of everyone’s cash, currency deposits, profits and salaries. It makes everyone poorer and it is simply a travesty to promote monetary inflation as a costless form of economic rescue. Yet the major central banks are now unashamedly admitting to a policy of deploying an infinite expansion of circulating currency.

The effect on capital allocation is equally destructive, because it undermines economic calculation. The suppression of interest rates and increasing quantities of currency tempt businessmen into unprofitable investment decisions which only appear profitable. But inflationism periodically fails as any follower of credit cycles will attest. And the more extreme the policy of inflationism, the more capital is misallocated, and the worse the periodic failures. Today, we can add to these woes monetary and interest rate policies intended to prevent any and all businesses from going to the wall in a final act of capital misallocation.

We now stand on the edge of a global monetary crisis brought about by a new, rapid acceleration of money-printing. Never before have we seen our own governments and those of all our trading partners embark on the same policies of monetary destruction. Never, therefore, will we have seen the scale of global wealth destruction that we about to experience. Unless governments change their inflationary policies, they will lead to the miseries we read about in countries such as Venezuela and Zimbabwe being visited upon us all.

It is extraordinary that modern economists are blind to the true effects of inflation, which have been known since the dawn of money. Nicolas Oresme, a French bishop in the fourteenth century and a notable translator of Aristotle, warned of debasement:

“I am of the opinion that the main and final cause why the prince pretends to the power of altering the coinage is the profit or gain which he can get from it… the amount of the prince’s profit is necessarily that of the communities’ loss but whatever loss the prince inflicts on the community is injustice and the act of a tyrant and not of a king, as Aristotle says. And so, the Prince would be at length able to draw to himself almost all the money or riches of his subjects and reduce them to slavery and this would be tyrannical, indeed true and absolute tyranny as it is represented by philosophers, and in ancient history.”[ii]

As a description of inflation, it was a continuity statement of what was known from classical times. In Oresme’s day and before, the principal form of debasement was of the coinage. It is no different from issuing any form of money or credit unbacked by a valuable metal. Apart from alchemists dreaming of creating gold out of something else, the principal deniers of the true purpose of inflationism have been John Law in eighteenth century France, Geog Knapp and his chartalists in Bismarck’s Germany, and Lord Keynes the consequences from which we are suffering today. Oresme was spot on. The whole purpose of debasement is to fund the state, and the state licences banks for that purpose, extending monetary favours to big business as well. Forget the flummery about stimulating us; that amounts to a cover for statist robbery of our wealth.

The coronavirus is not the cause of this folly. It has only shortened timescales, the likely time before we discard fiat currencies entirely. It has brought forward the time when homo economicus anticipates the total loss of the government currency’s purchasing power. From that moment, those of us unwilling to descend into barter will seek a new medium of exchange. In desperation, governments are likely attempt to provide alternatives. If so, it almost certainly will be a variation on the fiat theme, which they find impossible to abandon for lack of finance. They will then discover that a lasting money is not to be chosen by the state, but by the people.

This has been the lesson of history. Those who think economics as a science started with Keynes, and preceding theories were thereby invalidated, are in for a primal shock. It is time to relearn the basics about money so that we can anticipate what form of money will endure as a replacement for the failure of government fiat currency.

Defining money

There are two incontrovertible facts that underlie economic analysis and the role of money. The first is that the division of labour is more productive than the work of isolated individuals. That is to say, individuals maximise their productivity by deploying their individual skills, relying on their enhanced output to acquire all their other needs and wants from other specialising producers in their community. Not even Marx denied this, nor all the other socialists who emerged on the economic and political scene from his time onwards. Only Keynes denied it in order to impart validity to his General Theory.[iii]

Socialist economists even agree with the second incontrovertible fact, that, ascetics aside, individuals prefer a higher productivity of their labour to a lower one. Socialist arguments were not against these facts but dispute which way of dividing labour is most productive. Marxists have argued that the division of labour should be harnessed for the benefit of the state, and that instead of being exploited by employers, labourers would become happier and more productive. Less extreme socialists simply believe that there is little or no difference of production output in a business controlled by the state, compared with one in private ownership.

It therefore follows that to facilitate the division of labour, the role of money is to facilitate an exchange of goods. It enables people to choose between goods and services, and therefore for people to exercise their judgement of the relative values they place on different goods. It enables them to choose.

Value is not to be confused with prices. Value is an expression of a graded preference between goods, the assessment of one against another. Money is the commodity whose sole function is to facilitate the transfer of production into needed and desired consumption in order to satisfy individual scales of value. The difference between value and its realisation as a price in a transaction devolves into subjective values placed by different individuals for goods and services being exchanged and into a common objective value for money.

Separately from money’s objective transactional value, transacting individuals have different values for money itself relative to a particular product within money’s objective context. In a transaction it follows that one party will value a given quantity of money more than the good at the point of exchange, while the other party will value the good more than the quantity of money demanded; otherwise an exchange cannot take place. The exchange is recorded as a price expressed in money terms.

This description crams into a few paragraphs the relationship between value and money. It is a topic rarely addressed by modern economists, which is one reason the catallactic role of money is poorly understood. A second, and no less important reason is the defining literature on the subject originated in Austria in German, with the unfamiliar names to the Anglo-Saxon ear of Menger, Böhm-Bawerk, Wieser and Mises amongst others. Instead, the neo-classical economics of today ignores all subjectivity and has evolved into an inflexible mathematical macroeconomic certainty, eliminating unpredictable human action, melding value with prices.

But from these basics all other roles of money are derived. Clearly, while one party wants the money more than the item being exchanged and the other prefers the item to the money, both parties in a transaction will require a medium of exchange that is stable. They can then agree an objective value at the time of the transaction. But when an individual or business sells his, her or its production, the money gained is not immediately exchanged for other goods. Money must therefore have more than an objective value at the time of a transaction, because it is also the temporary storage of labour or of a business’s output.

It is fundamental that all economic actors are confident that the purchasing power of money does not alter for the time they are likely to possess it in lieu of the goods and services yet to be acquired, else they will either dispose of the money more rapidly than they would otherwise, or alternatively hoard it to a greater extent than they would normally require. And when the division of labour is organised into a cooperative system, such as a business involving numbers of people, rewarding them for production by paying fixed salaries, it is a fundamental assumption of all employment contracts that the salary does not alter in its purchasing power.

The stability that qualifies money as the medium of exchange over time is also fundamental to related functions, such as the ability of transacting parties to agree deferred payment terms and the facility of money to permit adjustment for risk factors between a transaction and its final settlement. Other than deferred payments based purely on trust, deferred settlements will reflect a level of time preference agreed between acting parties. This is the measure of the difference between values of immediate possession and deferred possession for the period agreed.

The greatest value for transacting parties is for possession sooner, with future possession valued less. All commodities are subject to this rule. Furthermore, money’s time preference is also subject to this rule and will reflect money’s own characteristics as well as those of goods being exchanged.

Instead of being expressed as a discount to current possession, the time preference of future possession is expressed as an annualised interest rate. Assuming a current valuation of a future value, a time preference value of 95 per cent of current ownership in one year’s time is the same as an interest rate of

(100-95)/95 = 5.26%.

Time preference can only be agreed between transacting parties, and it is impossible for outsiders, such as the state, to know what that value is. With respect to money, this is commonly termed the originary rate of interest, shorn of other considerations, such as transactional risk and anticipated changes in the prices of future goods, which are additional factors.

It should be apparent that a medium of exchange discharges its functions most effectively when the transacting public has the greatest confidence in the money’s stability, leading to a relatively low level of time preference. Policies of state inflationism undermine this condition and, if continued, inevitably leads to the loss of confidence in fiat money altogether. Recent events, the combination of a downturn in the credit cycle and the economic consequences of the coronavirus, have committed central banks to an unlimited increase of monetary inflation, which in addition to the suppression of all time preference, by imposing zero and negative interest rates on economic actors, will bring forward the day when faith in fiat currencies is lost entirely.

We can therefore anticipate the death of today’s fiat currencies. It is a mistake to think it will be a gradual process: it has already been gradual since the late 1960s, when the remaining fig-leaf of gold convertibility was finally abandoned with the failure of the London gold pool. Since then, measured in gold the dollar has lost over 97% of its purchasing power compared with gold. Given this latest acceleration of monetary debasement, it is likely to be the nail in the coffin for the fiat dollar. Instead of a continuing decline, the outcome is likely to be a final collapse, not just through its over-issuance, but because fiat money will have lost all its derivative functions. The only thing missing is public awareness.

The end of fiat money can be defrayed by reverting to a gold standard, turning it from pure fiat to a representative of gold. But that will only be a lasting solution if the state stops intervening in the economy, runs balanced budgets and embraces free markets. Unfortunately, inflationism in the form of neo-Keynesian economics is so ingrained in political thinking that many central banks will look to invent new forms of fiat money instead of returning to a gold exchange standard.

One of the alternatives being experimented with is state-issued cryptocurrencies, but it is not yet clear what purpose they are intended to serve. Crucially, they are sure to differ from bitcoin and similar cryptocurrencies by having a centralised ledger under state control. Apart from the questions raised by wider uncertainties surrounding the durability of a cryptocurrency’s use-value, unless the state version is backed convincingly by gold, it will be no more than a dressed-up fiat currency, a successor to failure unlikely to obtain enduring public trust. For the moment, we must dismiss state issued cryptocurrencies as irrelevant to our analysis, because independent cryptocurrencies are better stores of value due to their distributed ledgers.

Gold as money

The inflationists deny that gold should play any monetary role, for the simple reason that it hampers inflationist policies. Being the most likely way of securing a currency, for a gold exchange standard to work will require strict rules-based monetary discipline.

A gold exchange standard is comprised of the following elements. The new issues of state denominated currency must be covered pro rata by additional physical gold, and it must be fully interchangeable at the public’s option. The state is not required at the outset to cover every existing banknote in circulation, but depending on the situation, perhaps a minimum of one-third of the issue should be covered by physical gold at the outset when setting a fixed conversion ratio. The point is that further note issues must be covered by the issuer acquiring physical gold.

Banknotes which are “as good as gold” are a practical means of using gold as the medium of exchange. Electronic money, being fully convertible into bank notes must also be convertible into gold.

A gold exchange standard also requires the state to radically alter course from its customary inflationary financing. The economy, which has similarly become accustomed to future flows of apparently free money, will have to adjust to their future absence. Consequently, the state has to reduce its burden on the economy, such that its activities become a minimal part of the whole; the smaller the better. It must privatise industries in its possession, because it cannot afford to absorb any losses and inefficient state businesses detract from overall economic performance. At the same time, the state must not hamper wealth creation and accumulation by producers and savers as the means to provide investment in production. Government policy must be to stop all socialism, allowing charities to fulfil the role of welfare provision, and let free markets have full rein.

Broadly, this was how British government policy developed following the Napoleonic wars until the First World War, and the proof of its success was Britain’s commercial and technological development, entirely due to free markets. But the British made one important mistake, and that was in the Bank Charter Act of 1844, which in England and Wales permitted the expansion of unbacked bank credit. For this reason, a cycle of credit expansion developed, punctuated by sharp contractions, the boom and bust that led to a series of banking crises. A future gold exchange standard must address this issue, by separating deposit-taking into a custodial role and the financing of investment into an agency function.

It is a common error of neo-Keynesian economists to believe gold is an unsuitable medium for financing modern trade and investment, because, it is often alleged, it lacks an interest rate. Since interest rates existed throughout gold standards, the confusion arises from assuming an interest rate attaches to paper currency. But if a paper currency is fully convertible into gold, then interest rates are effectively for borrowing and lending gold, and do not apply to the currency. The best measure of what savers may gain by lending their gold savings risk-free is the yield on government debt, repayable in gold and realisable in the market at any time. This is illustrated in Figure 1.

GOLDMONEY 460

Shortly after the introduction of the gold sovereign in 1817, the yield on undated government debt gradually fell to 2.3% in 1898. This reflected a natural decline in time preference as free markets delivered increasing benefits and accumulating wealth for the British population. Following the gold discoveries in South Africa, between the early-1880s and the First World War global above-ground stocks of gold doubled, and the inflationary effects led to a rise in government Consols yields to 3.4%.

The encouragement to investors to provide financial capital for investment in industry and technology was two-fold. A family’s investment in 1824 rose in value due to the long-term fall in Consols yields. By 1898, invested in Consols it would have appreciated by 65%. At the same time, the rise in the purchasing power of gold-backed sterling increased approximately 20%. Saving and family inheritance were rewarded.[iv]

Importantly, above ground gold stocks have grown at approximately the rate of that of the global population, imparting a long-term stability to prices in gold. For this reason, it is often said that measured in gold the cost of a Roman toga is not much different from that of a modern lounge suit. Other money-related benefits of gold and gold exchange standards compared with those of pure fiat also follow from this stability.

Between countries that use gold and gold substitutes as money, except for short-term settlement differences covered by trade finance, balance of payments imbalances only existed to adjust price levels between different nations. If a country exports more goods and services than it imports, it imports gold or gold substitutes on a net basis. The increased quantity of gold in that country tends to adjust the general level of prices upwards to the general level of prices in countries that are net importers of goods and services, which find the outflow of gold has moved their prices correspondingly lower. The ability to issue unbacked currency has been removed, so net balance of payment flows become a pure price arbitrage. This is in accordance with classical economic theory and has its remnants today in concepts such as purchasing power parity.

In summary, gold retains the qualities that ensure it will always be the commodity selected by people to act as their medium of exchange. It offers long term price stability and is the ultimate fiscal and monetary discipline on governments, forcing them to reduce socialist ambitions, to accept the primacy of free markets, and to permit acting individuals to earn and accumulate wealth. Being fully fungible, gold is suitable backing for substitute coins and banknotes. It is an efficient medium for providing savings for the purpose of capital investment. And the tendency for prices measured in gold to fall over time driven by natural competition and technology ensures a low and stable originary rate of interest.

Bitcoin and similar distributed ledger cryptocurrencies

Now that we have defined money and identified why fiat currency is on an accelerating path to failure, we must look at the much-mooted alternative to gold of cryptocurrencies, the most notable of which is bitcoin. For simplicity we shall comment on bitcoin only.

The principal characteristics of bitcoin are its pre-programmed limited and capped rate of issue, and its distributed ledger otherwise known as the blockchain. The former distinguishes it from fiat currencies, which as we have seen are beginning their final inflation run, and the latter ensures governments cannot gain control or otherwise interfere with it.

While governments can confiscate their citizens’ profits, close down cryptocurrency exchanges and direct their licenced banks not to accept or make payments in connection with cryptocurrencies, they have yet to do so. So far, when authorities have intervened, the reasons given have been to tackle fraud, real and imagined, and alleged money-laundering. For governments to shut cryptocurrencies down would probably require international cooperation by all governments to deny the right to own cryptocurrencies. An agreement on these lines would be almost impossible to achieve and would take many years of intergovernmental negotiation, given the violation of property rights involved and the precedents created. Due to the accelerated timescale of the demise of fiat currencies, intervention of this sort seems unlikely.

Bitcoin will therefore survive government intervention to become a possible replacement for fiat currencies. But there is the practical problem of exchange being broadly limited by users looking for investment and speculation, rather than being used as payment for goods. This is for good reason: in any transaction an acting man will want all the price subjectivity to be reflected in the goods being exchanged and objective values to be confined to the currency. Currently, bitcoin’s volatility is extreme as shown in Figure 2, which compares bitcoin priced in gold ounces with gold priced in dollars.

GOLDMONEY 462

Gold’s volatility against the dollar approximates to the volatility of any another currency, and its upward trend principally reflects the declining purchasing power of the dollar. Even priced in gold ounces, bitcoin’s volatility has been dramatic, too dramatic to act as the objective value in an exchange for goods.

Unless bitcoin’s volatility subsides sufficiently so that it becomes widely accepted as a medium of exchange, it cannot act as efficient money in the catallactic sense. Furthermore, the blockchain system is too cumbersome for a global medium of exchange, currently limited to about half a million transactions daily when trillions are required.

While accepting that bitcoin’s other monetary features have yet to be developed, volatility would also appear to rule out agreements between lender and borrower on the value of time preference as the basis of using it for deferred settlement. For now, bitcoin appears to be good for buying with a view to selling in return for another form of money, rather than acting as money itself. Undoubtedly, owners of bitcoin, or hodlers as the slang term puts it, are valuing them in dollars, and thinking of taking profits in dollars. It appears that hodlers are speculating on bitcoin’s rise, rather than the dollar’s fall, though that will change as the general public begin to ditch their fiat currencies.

When hodlers finally understand this distinction, in the absence of fiat money and using bitcoin for day-to-day exchanges for goods, what will they sell them for? If we rule out purchases of other cryptocurrencies, the answer can only be for metallic money, gold, or properly constituted gold substitutes.

While we can draw attention to a cryptocurrency’s lack of monetary characteristics, it does not mean we can dismiss them as being merely speculative counters. Circumstances change, and it is likely that when the general public finally understands that fiat currencies are worthless, it will look for alternative stores of wealth. Bitcoin enthusiasts are among the first to understand the benefits of hoarding wealth against failing fiat currencies. Furthermore, technological innovation could provide solutions to bitcoin’s lack of transactional scalability.

Central banks are also running cryptocurrency and blockchain projects, so far with little apparent sense of direction beyond trying to keep abreast of developments. The most advanced state appears to be China, which is trialling a digital version of the yuan. But far from having the characteristics of a cryptocurrency, any version of the yuan digitised or not is, for the moment at least, just a fiat currency.

In the final analysis, whether bitcoin becomes money is down to what the transacting public decides. But for now, it remains a hedge to fiat currency risk, with the potential for the price to rise, not just reflecting the demise of the dollar and other fiat currencies but rising in its own right. The market for bitcoin is potentially huge, far larger than the feed into any speculative bubble in history, with billions of people possessing mobile phones capable of acquiring them.

Concluding remarks

The inflationists, encompassing the entire financial establishment and their epigones, fail to see the ending of fiat currencies. But a rational and objective analysis coupled with empirical evidence tells us that the sudden and rapid escalation of monetary expansion, aimed to ensure financial assets do not fail, will lead to the destruction of the dollar as the world’s principal medium of exchange. And with the reserve currency gone, it is very unlikely the other major fiat currencies will survive.

The question then arises as to what will replace fiat currencies. Government attempts to extend the life of fiat money by issuing new versions imitating cryptocurrencies will fail, only likely to extend the life of fiat by a matter of months, if at all. Existing cryptocurrencies, even the best of them, are not currently suitable replacements due to their lack of scalability and volatility. Furthermore, for now bitcoin is the preserve of investors and speculators, taking a punt on the demise of fiat, without an exit plan other than to measure or take profits in a fiat currency.

The same accusation can be levelled at gold, which is probably even less used in transactions for goods than bitcoin. But gold has the advantage of a track record of always returning as the money of public choice after fiat fails. Together with its suitability for deferred settlements, we can therefore be certain that gold will be money once again, while we cannot be so certain of the future for cryptocurrencies.

This is not to say that cryptocurrencies will not afford protection for individuals as fiat fails, only that an exit route has yet to evolve, other than being spent as money. Consequently, cryptocurrencies might retain investment or speculative value, but it will end up being measured in gold. That being the case, the reasons for using cryptocurrencies as an escape from failing fiat will disappear when gold becomes money again, along with a future role for cryptocurrencies as mediums of exchange.

end

https://www.jsmineset.com/2020/05/08/china-china-china/

China, China, China!

Posted May 8th, 2020 at 8:59 AM (CST) by J. Johnson & filed under General Editorial.

Great and Wonderful Friday Morning Folks,

      Gold was more positive than it is right now as the trade reached $1,735.50 before the City put in their “calm” (our synonym for manipulation) with the trade at $1,726.60 up 80 cents with the low at $1,722.10. Silver is once again doing “the oddball” by leading with the trade up 19 cents at $15.78 after reaching up to $15.885 before the synonym was placed and after the low of $15.545 was hit. The US Dollar continues to stay in place by sticking around par with the trade at 99.79, down 11.6 points inside a trading range between 99.905 and 99.650. Of course, all this happened before 5 am pst, the Comex open, the London close, and before the Unemployment and Wholesale Trade reports get posted.

      Our Emerging Market Currency Watch is nothing but positive today. For example, in Venezuela, Gold is now priced at 17,244.42 Bolivar showing a 289.69 gain with Silver adding 6.192 Bolivar to its price at 157.603. Argentina’s currency now has Gold valued at 115,739.08 Peso’s as the currency falters popping in an additional 1,927.37 A-Pesos overnight with Silver adding 41.38 A-Peso’s with the trade at 1,057.63. The Turkish Lira’s price for Gold is now at 12,274.53, as the noble metal gained 152.88 Lira with Silver now at 112.177 T-Lira proving a gain of 3.547. As a side note here, part of the reasoning for posting collapsed foreign currency values for our precious metals is to prepare you for what we think will be the price swings under the US Dollar, when the time comes and as the print continues.

      May Silver Deliveries now sit at 1,996 fully paid for 5,000-ounce contracts, and with a Volume of 14 up on the board so far, with a trading range between $15.75 and $15.53 with the last trade of course, at the high, up 18.8 cents from yesterday’s close, proving 123 receipts were passed out somewhere between here and London. Yesterday’s Delivery Month trading range finalized between $15.435 and $15.215 with the last registered buy at the high and with a close way above any trade at $15.562 with a final Volume count at 9. As mentioned over the years, the paper behind the price will be the “tell” as the levels of manipulation, or fear, show up in the count as 4,237 more short contracts had to be added yesterday in order to provide liquidity with the total Open Interest now at 137,083 contracts traded on an exchange that only controls the price, not allowed to move freely. All this kinda feels like a CCP controlled market, huh?

      May Gold Deliveries are still amazing to see as the Demands For Physical remain elevated for a cereal month with the count at 3,377 fully paid for 100-ounce contracts waiting for receipts with a Volume of 229 up on the board already inside a trading range between $1,728.90 and $1,721.10 with the last trade so far at $1,722.40, up 60 cents and proving a drop of 273 demands that got receipts and have exited the building Elvis style. If you really want to see the fear trade, look no further than the additional liquidity put into the Futures Market behind the price to control Gold as another 11,632 shorts had to be added to keep the noble metal from making new life of contract highs bringing the count to 504,539 Overnighter’s willing to stay in before our Unemployment Report comes out.

      China’s International Barbarian Management is being seen everywhere as Twitter, Facebook, YouTube, and the various media conglomerates inside our borders, are removing any and all discussions about where this bio came from, as the world places the blame squarely on the socialist (the idiots term for communist) nation. More countries are piling on in the international courts as China’s Truth Squads attack opposing views to their narratives within these claimed free-speech-platforms. Now China’s Truth Squads are being accused of removing sections of many articles written by EU members and as the “E-Union fails to discuss the edits, including the removal of references to the spread of COVID-19, in an op-ed jointly published article by all 27 member states in a Chinese-owned newspaper”. So, WHO really controls the narrative? I say, let’s find out the answer by withholding all the money and grants to these organizations and see who complains the most?

      Also, of note is this past week’s huge and really large Q posts. You may not have noticed them being discussed in the media because the management within our media considers the movement as not China Centric, I no longer wonder why? Could it be that some who claim to be ardent Americans are really traitors to our nation and are making hidden agreements with other nations against our nation benefits, and the will of the people? Did you see Flynn’s 3 years of isolation, incarceration, and accusations, fade into oblivion yesterday? There are quite a few that do not like the idea of Q, but the point I see is Q is the voice that is showing the world the media is full of shit at every turn and they need to be exposed. We will observe all the discussions because somewhere in the middle the truth can be found. In the meantime, we continue to see Trump Draining the Swamp in slow, methodical, and in the unrelentingly slow pace of law and order! We’re also keeping an eye on those that claim Trump needs to be investigated more and impeached more, as the Barbarian Comedy shows up again.

     So have a great weekend, keep the faith, and a smile on your face, and Q the moments that makes up one smile, and as always…

Stay Strong!

Jeremiah Johnson

More J.Johnson content is available with purchase of a JSMineset subscription.

iii) Other physical stories:

 

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early FRIDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 7.0759/ GETTING VERY DANGEROUSLY PAST 7:1

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  7.0870   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 23.82 POINTS OR 0.83%

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 249.54 POINTS OR 1.04%

 

2. Nikkei closed UP 504.32 POINTS OR 2.56%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL GREEN/

 

 

 

USA dollar index DOWN TO 99.76/Euro RISES TO 1.0839

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. –.00/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 106.35/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 23.74 and Brent: 29.68

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE UP/OFF- SHORE: UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO -.55%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 1.82% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.78%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 2.37: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 2.16

3k Gold at $1719.40 silver at: 15.46   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 27/100 in roubles/dollar) 73.65

3m oil into the 57 dollar handle for WTI and 64 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 106.35 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9713 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0528 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to 0.55%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 0.61% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 1.31%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 7.1104..

Futures Jump Ahead Of Worst Unemployment Report In US History

The US is about to report that it lost some 22 million (according to consensus) jobs in April, and potentially as much as 54 million, with the unemployment rate soaring in what will easily be the worst unemployment report in US history…

… but futures continued their Thursday levitation alongside all other global markets because, rising above 2,900 and for the second day in a row hitting session highs after fresh hope for a US-China Phase 1 trade deal, as reports that China and the U.S. had a constructive phone call on trade added optimism over the reopening plans of major economies, outweighing concerns over the damage caused by the virus outbreak, even as many speculate that reopenings will simply lead to a second and potentially worse wave of infections.

After Trump rattled investors last week by threatening new tariffs against China, Beijing said on Friday that both sides agreed to improve the atmosphere for the implementation of a Phase 1 trade deal. Chinese Vice Premier Liu He, US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and USTR Lighthizer spoke over the phone and agreed to keep communications, strengthen cooperation and vowed efforts to implement the phase 1 deal. The sides reportedly agreed to work together to create beneficial environment for carrying out trade deal, while they agreed good progress was made to make deal a success and that both sides fully expect obligations to be met. Subsequently, a Chinese Gov’t Adviser, on the US-China phone call, suggested that the fact that “the dialogue has now gone straight to ministerial level may indicate the problem is quite severe”, via SCMP.

The strategically timed news came just hours before the U.S. economy is expected to announce it lost a staggering 22 million jobs in April, in what would be the steepest plunge in payrolls since the Great Depression.

But with several states reopening businesses this month, financial markets have so far ignored all data underlining the business damage inflicted in April and have pinned their hopes on a revival in supply chains and consumer spending, with expectations of a sharp V-shaped recovery. Wall Street ended higher on Thursday with the Nasdaq recouping all its losses for 2020, powered by a clutch of upbeat earnings and gains for tech stocks that have proven largely resilient in the broader selloff.

Meanwhile, with the S&P 500 still about 15% below its record high and investors still fearing a deep depression due to the outbreak, on Thursday, financial markets began pricing in a negative U.S. interest rate environment for the first time ever.

Among early US equity movers, Disney rose 2.6% as tickets for the earliest days of Shanghai Disneyland’s re-opening in China sold out rapidly. Uber Technologies jumped 7.3% as the company said its ride service bookings slowly recovered in recent weeks and that it expects a coronavirus-related slowdown will delay the goal of becoming profitable by a matter of quarters, not years.

In Europe, construction and industrial goods stocks pulled the Euro Stoxx Index higher while U.K. markets were closed for a holiday.  Europe’s largest engineering company Siemens rose after publishing a sales forecast that investors viewed as better than feared amid the industrial malaise caused by pandemic.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks gained, led by industrials and energy, after falling in the last session. Most markets in the region were up, with Japan’s Topix Index gaining 2.2% and India’s S&P BSE Sensex Index rising 1.1%, while Jakarta Composite dropped 0.2%. The Topix gained 2.2%, with Oizumi and DD HD rising the most. Nomura posted a surprise quarterly loss, failing to capitalize on wild market swings. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.8%, with Dalian Energas Gas-System and Anhui Tongfeng Electronics posting the biggest advances.

“Earnings estimates have yet to fall as much as we think they will, making global equities vulnerable to a near-term correction,” wrote strategist Peter Berezin and colleagues in a BCA Research note. “Nevertheless, the spread between earnings yields and bond yields is wide enough to justify a modest overweight to stocks on a 12-month horizon.”

Needless to say, all eyes today will be on the U.S. jobs report (previewed here), which is forecast to show employers slashed about 22 million from payrolls in April, nearly a decade of job gains in a single month. Equities have so far managed to weather miserable economic data as well as a string of poor earnings reports as investors bet on a swift recovery, but the strong rebound in risk assets has left others questioning whether further gains are warranted.

US Treasury yields dipped in Asian trading with two-year Treasury yields slipping to a fresh record amid market bets policy makers could adopt negative rates, while Italy’s bond-yield spread narrowed before Moodys announces an update on Italy’s sovereign rating (expected to be kept unchanged). The dollar nudged lower and

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell a second day after dovish rhetoric from Federal Reserve officials fueled talk that the central bank will cut its policy rate below zero; gold advanced. The euro was little changed against the greenback while the yen edged lower on commercial dollar demand ahead of the weekend; the Japanese currency is still on track for a fifth straight weekly advance against the dollar, the longest winning streak since July 2012. The New Zealand and Australian dollars led Group-of-10 currency gains on the pickup in risk sentiment; the Aussie was also supported after Australia announced a three-phase plan to reopen the economy by July.

In commodities, oil headed for its first back-to-back weekly gain since February as output cuts from the biggest producers and a nascent recovery in demand began to rebalance a market awash with crude. Gold trader slightly higher after surging yesterday amid NIRP panic.

 

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.8% to 2,903.50
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.5% to 339.71
  • MXAP up 1.6% to 146.29
  • MXAPJ up 1.1% to 470.11
  • Nikkei up 2.6% to 20,179.09
  • Topix up 2.2% to 1,458.28
  • Hang Seng Index up 1% to 24,230.17
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.8% to 2,895.34
  • Sensex up 1.2% to 31,829.52
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.5% to 5,391.08
  • Kospi up 0.9% to 1,945.82
  • German 10Y yield fell 1.9 bps to -0.564%
  • Euro down 0.07% to $1.0826
  • Brent Futures up 0.9% to $29.71/bbl
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 5.6 bps to 1.744%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 5.5 bps to 0.766%
  • Brent Futures up 0.9% to $29.71/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.2% to $1,718.81
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.05% to 99.84

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • Boris Johnson’s government tried to damp expectations that the U.K.’s coronavirus lockdown will be significantly rolled back as top scientists warned the country’s infection rate has crept upward in recent days
  • Australia’s central bank said household spending is likely to slump about 15% in response to the lockdown to stem the spread of the coronavirus
  • Japanese households cut monthly spending by the most in five years as the coronavirus started to spread more quickly in the weeks before the government called a state of emergency
  • Investors increased liquidations of positions in equity funds, with the U.S. seeing the most outflows, Citigroup said in a note, citing data from EPFR Global for the week ended May 6
  • The torrent of cash into U.S. prime funds continues to support declines in money market rates. The funds racked up a fifth straight weekly inflow of $15.5 billion — making $60 billion in total over the streak– according to data Thursday from the Investment Company Institute. That’s helping pare the $140 billion cash exodus in March
  • The critical ruling by Germany’s constitutional court over the European Central Bank’s bond-buying program poses a threat to the future of the common currency, according to Wolfgang Schaeuble, the country’s former finance minister.

Asian equity markets were higher across the board and US equity futures extended on gains overnight in which the Emini S&P and Mini Dow futures breached the 2900 and 24000 milestones respectively as global sentiment was underpinned amid renewed dialogue between US-China trade negotiators, whilst Fed Fund Rate futures began to price in negative rates for the US from December. ASX 200 (+0.5%) and Nikkei 225 (+2.6%) were positive as they take impetus from their Wall St peers and with risk appetite spurred by loosening of coronavirus-related restrictions after Australia’s cabinet agreed to relax some of its social distancing measures in a 3-step phase and with Japan touting the early lifting of the state of emergency in some regions, while Japan is also said to mull additional measures including proposal to subsidize rents for small businesses for up to 6 months. Hang Seng (+1.0%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.8%) joined in on the upbeat tone as Hong Kong reopens its bars and other venues from today, and due to the easing of trade tensions following a conference call between USTR Lighthizer, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and China Vice Premier Liu He in which the sides agreed to work together to create a beneficial environment for carrying out the trade deal and to strengthen cooperation on the macro economy. Finally, 10yr JGBs initially tracked upside in T-notes as US yields declined amid the pricing of future negative rates although the price action in JGBs was relatively tepid and the gains were later reversed following the 10yr inflation indexed bond auction which saw attracted weaker prices despite the amount sold just being half of the previous auction.

Top Asian News

  • China Stocks Top Key Technical Level on Trade, Policy Optimism
  • Billionaire Birla’s Novelis to Slash Spending as Demand Dries Up
  • India’s Top Airline to Put Some Staff on Leave Without Pay
  • Fancl Jumps Most on Record as Direct Sales Help It Beat Peers

European stocks see modest gains [Euro Stoxx 50 +0.8%] after a positive APAC handover – with sentiment supported by Fed Fund futures pricing negative rates from December, alongside the developments in the US-China trade saga in which the two sides vowed efforts to implement the Phase One deal. European bourses see a broad-based performance, whilst the FTSE 100 is closed on account of UK’s Early May Bank Holiday. Sectors in Europe are mostly in the green, with the exception of Financials amid a rebound in bonds. Industrials outperform on the prospect of factories and other industrial operations resuming post-lockdown. In terms of individual movers; ING (+4%) rose some 6% at the open on the back of lower than expected loan-loss provisions. Siemens (+5%) are higher despite dismal earnings as the group moves to accelerate its cost-savings programme to deal with the impacts of the virus. On the flip side, Rheinmetall (-3.0%) holds onto losses as the group warned of a significant negative impact in Q2 earnings.

Top European News

  • EU Rifts Spook Foreign Investors to Question Its Future
  • Siemens Scraps 2020 Guidance With Industrial Slump Ongoing
  • U.K. Starts Developing Second App to Trace Virus Spread, FT Says
  • ING Profit Resilient as Bank Keeps Tight Rein on Provisions

In FX, the DXY is back below the psychological 100.000 level and some distance down from its new early May high (100.400) within a narrow 99.880-627 range amidst widespread Greenback declines vs major and EM counterparts. Nerves ahead of the monthly US jobs data may be weighing on the Buck alongside buoyant risk sentiment after a seemingly constructive call between the US and China on the Phase 1 trade deal that is keeping the YUAN off recent lows and offsetting some COVID-19 economic headwinds. However, the looming payrolls number and unemployment rate are widely expected to highlight the adverse impact of measures taken to mitigate the fallout, while markets are starting to price in or hedge for even lower short term rates in response to even worse contagion from the pandemic in the months to come and this is also weighing on the Dollar.

  • NZD/AUD – The Kiwi is flying high again, and back on the 0.6100 handle awaiting lift-off from lockdown, but also benefiting from favourable cross-flows as the Aussie reflects on the latest RBA SOMP that essentially repeated the policy meeting assessment and guidance, though also reiterated that QE can be scaled up again if necessary. Aud/Usd is holding above 0.6500 after fading into 0.6550, while Aud/Nzd has pulled back under 1.0650 from around 1.0686 awaiting next week’s RBNZ policy convene and Aussie labour market report.
  • GBP – Not quite zero to hero, but the early signs are looking considerably better for Sterling after a far from super Thursday, with Cable retesting 1.2400 compared to deep sub-1.2300 levels yesterday and Eur/Gbp pivoting 0.8750 on UK May/VE Bank holiday. No specific or new catalyst for the Pound’s rebound, so the recovery looks more technical and positional ahead of the weekend and Sunday’s update from PM Johnson on plans to remove coronavirus restrictions.
  • CAD/CHF/EUR – All firmer against the Greenback, as the Loonie extends well beyond 1.4000 to 1.3925 in the run up to Canadian and US jobs data, the Franc pares losses towards 0.9700 and Euro forms a firmer base above 1.0800 following its fall to a fresh multi-week trough. However, the single currency looks somewhat hampered by hefty option expiry interest at 1.0850 (1.9 bn) having attempted a breach earlier.
  • JPY – The G10 laggard, albeit marginally, with the Yen boxed in from 106.23-46 vs its US peer in wake of 2 efforts to clear 106.00, but no success before the return of Japanese participants from Golden Week.

In commodities, WTI and Brent front month futures continue to track sentiment higher, with the benchmarks underpinned on US-China trade optimism, and with the outlook for the complex less dire – reflected by Saudi’s OSP increases yesterday for most oil grades into most of the regions for June. Aside from that, fresh fundamental news-flow has been light. WTI and Brent meander around mid-range, with the former’s June contract having printed an intraday band of USD 23.26-25/bbl whilst the latter clocked a parameter of USD 29.43-30.66/bbl thus far. Elsewhere, spot gold remains steady within a tight USD 1712-1720/oz range ahead of a detrimental US labour market report. Copper prices move higher in tandem with sentiment and amid the prospect of economies returning from lockdown – the red metal briefly topped its recent high at USD 2.4150/lb. Finally, Shanghai iron ore and steel futures posted weekly gains of over 2.5% each on a rosier demand outlook.

US Event calendar

  • 8:30am: Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, est. -22m, prior -701,000;
  • Change in Private Payrolls, est. -21.9m, prior -713,000
  • Change in Manufact. Payrolls, est. -2.5m, prior -18,000
  • 8:30am: Unemployment Rate, est. 16.0%, prior 4.4%
  • 8:30am: Average Hourly Earnings MoM, est. 0.5%, prior 0.4%; Average Hourly Earnings YoY, est. 3.3%, prior 3.1%
  • 8:30am: Average Weekly Hours All Employees, est. 33.5, prior 34.2;
  • 10am: Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. -1.0%, prior -1.0%; Wholesale Trade Sales MoM, est. -3.0%, prior -0.8%

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)FRIDAY MORNING/ THURSDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 23,82 POINTS OR 0.83%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 249.54 POINTS OR 1.94%   /The Nikkei closed UP 504.32 POINTS OR 2.56%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .70%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 7.0759 /Oil DOWN TO 23.74 dollars per barrel for WTI and 29.68 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 7.0759 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0870 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED//CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 C CHINA

CHINA/USA TRADE NEGOTIATIONS

China is still far behind in its commitments

(zerohedge)

US-China Trade Negotiators Vow To Save Trade Deal

Futures are pointing to a higher open again Friday morning (though that hasn’t exactly worked out so well for bulls so far this week) following reports that a hastily-arranged phone call between American and Chinese trade negotiators has produced a commitment to “continue to support” the deal – at least for now.

As SCMP reports: “Top trade negotiators from the United States and China spoke by phone on Friday and vowed to continue to support the phase one trade deal, Chinese state media reported, in their first contact since the agreement was signed in January.”

During the call, Liu He (the Chinese vice premier, close ally of President Xi, and top trade negotiator) spoke with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Trade Rep Robert Lighthizer and “vowed to implement their trade deal and boost cooperation on public health”,according to China’s official Xinhua News Agency.

As we pointed out yesterday, Beijing is still well behind where it would need to be to hit its first-year commitment to buy tens of billions of dollars in US goods (compared with end-2017 levels).

 

In a brief statement published on the website of the US OTR, the US team said “both sides agreed that good progress is being made…and that both countries fully expect to meet their obligations under the agreement in a timely manner.”

“Vice Premier Liu He, U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven T. Mnuchin, and Ambassador Robert Lighthizer participated in a conference call today.  They discussed economic and trade issues, including the recently concluded Phase One agreement.  The parties shared updates on COVID-19 and their assessments of its effects on economic growth as well as the measures their countries are taking to provide support to their economies.

The parties discussed the ongoing process of implementing the Phase One agreement between the two countries that went into effect February 14.  Both sides agreed that good progress is being made on creating the governmental infrastructures necessary to make the agreement a success.  They also agreed that in spite of the current global health emergency, both countries fully expect to meet their obligations under the agreement in a timely manner.  Meetings required by the agreement have been conducted via conference call and will continue on a regular basis.”

All this comes after Trump threatened to tear up the deal earlier this week over frustrations that China wasn’t holding up its end.

Interestingly, SCMP reported that a Chinese Gov’t Adviser told the paper that “the dialogue has now gone straight to ministerial level may indicate the problem is quite severe.”

With that in mind, now we wait for the anonymously sourced report claiming the deal is actually on the rocks…then down we go…

END

CHINA VS USA//

an alternative view of things courtesy of Brandon Smith

(Brandon Smith)

China’s COVID Cover-Up, Economic War, & The Elites Who Benefit

Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.com,

“Actually, as Winston well knew, it was only four years since Oceania had been at war with Eastasia and in alliance with Eurasia. But that was merely a piece of furtive knowledge, which he happened to possess because his memory was not satisfactorily under control. Officially the change of partners had never happened. Oceania was at war with Eurasia: therefore Oceania had always been at war with Eurasia. The enemy of the moment always represented absolute evil, and it followed that any past or future agreement with him was impossible…”

– George Orwell, 1984

The problem with wars, beyond all the death and destruction they cause, is that they are almost never fought for the reasons that governments claim. In most cases there is an underlying agenda which the public may or may not discover many decades later, and such agendas are NOT for our benefit. Wars rarely erupt over mere unplanned circumstance. Wars are rarely random.

War is a tool for social engineering because it creates widespread crisis for the unprepared masses, and as the unprepared scramble for safety, the state can institute authoritarian powers they never could have asserted in peacetime. Not only this, but in our modern era over the past century there has been a distinct pattern following the aftermath of each war in which power and governance is centralized. Every time disaster strikes, the proposed solution is centralization and global government. You would think the political elites would offer some new ideas after 100 years, but no, they only have one idea that they try to sell to us relentlessly.

Today the American people find themselves in the middle of numerous wars including two relatively new conflicts – the “war” on the coronavirus, and the economic war on China. Neither fight is meant to keep us safe, and both serve the interests of a highly select group of people. Getting people to understand this, though, is a difficult task.

Certain assumptions are almost always present in war, and the biggest assumption made by people is that the fight is between two governments and two nations. This is usually not the case. In fact, the real fight is the governments and the elites that control them versus the common citizens of both nations. This fact is backed by considerable evidence collected by researchers like Antony Sutton. His book ‘Wall Street And The Bolshevik Revolution’ as well as his book ‘Wall Street And The Rise Of Hitler’ outline a clear and provable conspiracy by global elites to fund both sides of any given conflict and then benefit through further globalization when the ashes settle.

I have been warning for many years about this same dynamic being created between the US and the East, specifically Russia and China. In my articles on what I call the “false East/West paradigm”, I give ample evidence that the very same money elites which control Washington also greatly influence nations like China through a shared ideology.

Yes, that’s right, the elites of China and the elites of the US are on the same team and have the same goals. There is no war, at least not at the top of the pyramid. Their stated goals include the creation of a one world digital currency system controlled by the International Monetary Fund and a 24/7 surveillance society in which every person on the planet is tracked through biometrics and through the blockchain. Without the tracking, participation is denied. In other words, you submit or you starve.

The pandemic, or the war on the “invisible enemy” as Trump calls it, is an excellent cover event for these goals. China has already launched its own tracking apps and immunity passports using cell phones and QR codes. These same measures are being pushed forward here in the US by elites like Bill Gates and Dr. Anthony Fauci.

The revelation that China’s Wuhan Lab received millions of dollars in funding from the US government for work on SARS-like viruses, greenlit by none other than Dr. Fauci in 2015, is but one of many instances in a long trail of aid and support that came from the West and the UN to China, from weapons development to economic support to viral research.

Did the US help create a monster? If we did, it was a monster that the elites absolutely wanted and have a specific use for.

I have long believed that China would be the primary villain used as a catalyst to trigger the “economic reset” that the globalists desire, but the roles of the US and China will remain ambiguous and amoral as this conflict drags on. For many in the US, China is seen as an economic pirate and now the cause of the coronavirus pandemic. As I noted in last week’s article, this is in some ways true but not the whole truth. Without the aid (or the blind eye) of Western governments and the World Health Organization, the spread of the pandemic would not have been possible.

Now, the other big distraction, the trade war, is about to return to mainstream discussion, and in the trade war we see the forever war unfold.

To be clear, the trade war never ended. I have said that the Phase 1 deal was a farce of epic proportions and that it was designed to fail as China would never be able to fulfill the promises they made to increase US export purchases. Well, we’ll never know now as the coronavirus has become the prevailing excuse to nix the trade deal and accelerate trade tensions. Of course, in this case Trump plays the monster as he initiates renewed trade attacks on China in the middle of a global crisis; at least, that is what the mainstream media is saying.

I predicted that this would happen back in January. In fact, CNN even cites the comparison between Trump and Herbert Hoover at the onset of the Great Depression – Something I also warned would happen back in 2018.

In this scenario, Trump continues to play the role of bumbling conservative villain for leftists and much of the socialist world though it is really their globalist “heroes” doing most of the damage, while China plays the villain for US conservatives as they rally around Trump, a puppet and pied piper leading them to disaster.

Scrutiny over China’s role in suppressing the source of the virus as well as the real numbers of infected and dead is creating unprecedented tensions between East and West, but of course we are meant to forget in all of this the fact that the elites in the West kept flights going for weeks after human-to-human transmission was identified and thousands had died in China. We are also meant to forget that Trump and Dr. Fauci denied any threat from the virus for months and defended Chinese data back in January. The pandemic tango needs at least two dancers to successfully spread. China did not act alone.

For now, Trump has announced the possibility of increased tariffs for China. China has responded to accusations of a virus cover-up with warnings of a possible war with the US. China has expanded into the South China Sea during the pandemic which is being treated as an exploitation of the crisis. But ultimately I think the war will be primarily an economic one, as this serves the interests of the globalists most.

The primary target, in my view, is the US dollar’s world reserve status along with the US economy. With the pandemic speeding up the process of nations going cashless, it is a no-brainer that the digital monetary world will end the dollar’s long time roll as world reserve. Add to this the huge crash in oil demand and oil prices to which the dollar derives much of its power, as well as the fact that the Fed has printed another $6 trillion which has barely stalled the market collapse and has not solved any of the underlying deflationary problems.

We now have a recipe for what is sometimes called a “stagflationary event”, which means price inflation in certain necessities and hard assets and deflation in other parts of the economy. Foreign Treasury bond holdings will probably continue to dwindle as this event progresses. Dollars are sought after for now, but this will change as more and more nations go digital.

For people in the US, I believe the intent is to convince us that China has ruined everything – our health, our economy, our dollar, etc. I think the war, in one form or another, is supposed to last for a very long time; at least, until the globalists get everything they want.

We are supposed to forget all about the globalists and their creation of the very conditions that led to this collapse in the first place. Is the Chinese government being falsely accused? No, they are a part of the problem and they did indeed help cause a global pandemic and financial crash, but they are not the whole problem. And this is where big lies gain power – All big lies contain a kernel of truth.

As the crisis events and distractions continue to build, on both sides of the Pacific Ocean the elites are currently implementing a technocratic tyranny of epic proportions.  The common people on both sides end up suffering, and unless they are stopped soon, the elites will end up the only winners.

*  *  *

END

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

EUROPE/CORONAVIRUS DEVASTATION

Here are the GDP losses expected from the EU 27 nations

(zerohedge)

COVID-19 Wreaks Economic Havoc Across Europe

The European Commission has released its Spring 2020 Economic Forecast whichshows that COVID-19 is wreaking havoc on Europe’s economy.

The collective GDP of the EU-27 was expected to grow 1.2 percent this year but it is now forecast contract 7.4 percent due to the pandemic. By contrast, Statista’s Niall McCarthy notes thatthe Financial Crisis “only” led to a contraction of 4.5 percent for the EU-28 back in 2009.

The current crisis has now pushed the EU into the deepest recession since its foundation with unemployment rates set to rise drastically. Last year, unemployment across the bloc was 6.7 percent and it is now forecast to grow to 9 percent this year.

Infographic: COVID-19 Wreaks Economic Havoc Across Europe | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

The data shows that no EU member state is going to emerge from the COVID-19 crisis unscathed with countries in southern Europe set to be worst impacted. Even though Greece has made progress since the Financial Crisis and has earned plaudits for limiting the spread of the coronavirus, it is expected to suffer the worst decline in GDP our of all EU member states at 9.7 percent. Italy and Spain who have both been badly impacted by the pandemic are also expected to suffer GDP contractions greater than 9 percent this year.

Even though Germany has suffered a far lower death toll than many of its neighbors and is slowly easing its lockdown, Europe’s economic powerhouse is still predicted to see its GDP shrink by 6.5 percent this year. While the situation remains serious in some parts of Europe, particularly the UK, there is light at the end of the tunnel.

After 7 weeks of strict confinement, Italians finally emerged from their homes at the start of the week while Germany’s schools and restaurants are set to open over the next couple of days. Even though the situation is improving, most EU leaders are remaining cautious due to the possibility of a second wave of infections. The European Commission has stated that fundamental uncertainty surrounds the forecast and that the danger of a deeper and more protracted recession is very real.

end

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

 

6.Global Issues

 

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings FRIDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.0839 UP .0003 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS //CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /GREEN

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 106.35 DOWN 0.0404 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2372   UP   0.0002  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/

 

USA/CAN 1.3956 DOWN .0016 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  FRIDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE BY 3 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.0839 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 23.82 POINTS OR 0.83% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 249.54 POINTS OR 1.04%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0,70%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 249.54 POINTS OR 1.04%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 23.82 POINTS OR 0.83%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP  0.70% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 504.32  POINTS OR 2.56%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1718.10

silver:$15.84-

Early FRIDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 0.63% !!! DOWN 1 IN POINTS from THURSDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 1.31 DOWN 2  IN BASIS POINTS from THURSDAY night.

USA dollar index early FRIDAY morning: 99.76 DOWN 13 CENT(S) from  THURSDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers FRIDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing  FRIDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.93% DOWN 2 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.00%  DOWN 1   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.79%//DOWN 3 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:1,81 DOWN 9 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 102 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES TO –353% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 2.34% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR FRIDAY

Closing currency crosses for FRIDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0846  UP     .0010 or 10 basis points

USA/Japan: 106.57 UP .210 OR YEN DOWN 21  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2426 UP .0053 POUND UP 53  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar UP 55 basis points to 1.3918

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 7.0741    ON SHORE  (UP)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  7.0880  (YUAN UP)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  7.1083 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.00%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 2 IN basis points from THURSDAY at 0.66 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 1.37 UP 4 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 99.68 DOWN 21  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for FRIDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED

 

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 145.21 POINTS OR 1.35%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 48.20 POINTS 1.07%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 52.20 POINTS or 0.63%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 194.26 POINTS OR 1.13%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 23.99 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 30.29 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE RISES:    73.38  THE CROSS LOWER BY 0.55 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE HIGHER BY 55 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.53 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  24,62//

 

 

BRENT :  30.94

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 0.68..plus 4 basis points…

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 1.38…plus  5 basis points..

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.0835 ( DOWN 8   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:106.71 UP .349 (YEN DOWN 35 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 99.77 DOWN 12 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.2405 DOWN 32  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 7.1001

 

 

the Russian rouble 73.48   UP 0.45 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( UP 45 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3928 UP 45 BASIS pts

 

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.55%

 

The Dow closed UP 455.43 POINTS OR 1.91%

 

NASDAQ closed UP 141.66 POINTS OR 1.58%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  28.07 CLOSED DOWN 3.37

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 0.434%//libor dropping like a stone

LIBOR/OIS:  .374%

TED SPREAD:  LIBOR VS 3 MONTH BILL RATE: .3200%

2 YR TREASURY BILL RATE: .125%

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

Wall Street Soars As Main Street Struggles With Lo’ Rates, No Jobs, & Mo’ Deaths

Record-WatchFor the first time ever, more than half the US population is not working; over 76,000 Americans dead from COVID-19; the US economy is contracting at record pace; earnings expectations are collapsing at near record pace; interest-rates at record lows (and imputing negative rates by year-end); and stocks are soaring at their fastest pace ever…

As we noted earlier, there was one especially scary aspect of today’s jobs report that has not gotten enough publicity, namely that as BofA writes, the employment to population ratio plunged to a record low, with only 51.3% of the population working. Inversely, this means that in April, 49% of the US population was not working.

Source: Bloomberg

And it’s going to get worse. How else do you explain the markets pricing in hope for The Fed to cut rates to minus-40bps by Dec 2020?

Source: Bloomberg

We do note that FF futures spiked when The Fed announced Jay Powell would hold a speech next week (theoretically enabling him to jawbone down any expectations of negative rates)…

Source: Bloomberg

Which must be great news for stocks: think of all the people who have nothing better to do than buy the fucking dip all day with all that helicopter money the Fed will be showering on them for the coming years.

Nasdaq was up almost 6% this week and Small Caps ripped higher…

The Nasdaq composite was up 5 days in a row – the best streak since Dec2019 (when it went 10 days in a row without a drop)…

Sending Nasdaq green for 2020 – as if all those dead and unemployed people never mattered…

Source: Bloomberg

Because fun-durr-mentals are so bad, it must be good!!

Source: Bloomberg

Meanwhile, the nation is split politically between lockdown-deniers and stay-at-home-ers; and Democrats (who politicized the DoJ to entrap Flynn and launch a coup against Flynn) have demanded an IG probe into Barr’s politicization of The DoJ; and states/cities are demanding Federal bailouts for what they have over-promised their voters and benefactors for decades….

Small Caps and Nasdaq are up 38% from the 3/22 lows…

But volume has collapsed as stocks have gained…

Source: Bloomberg

Stocks piked to end the day on the highs as the Fed Funds futures market “tightened” away from negative rates expectations…

Source: Bloomberg

It’s the Internet, stupid!

Source: Bloomberg

FANG stocks are up 5 straight days (and 7 of last 9)…

Source: Bloomberg

Bank stocks were mostly higher on the week but quite volatile…

Source: Bloomberg

Airlines were down on the week but Hotels managed gains…

Source: Bloomberg

Overall, the median stock (Value Line Geometric index) is drastically underperforming the broader market…

Source: Bloomberg

HY was better this week but IG bonds lagged…

Source: Bloomberg

A very choppy week for bonds ended with the curve notably steeper (30Y +13bps, 2Y -4bps)

Source: Bloomberg

10Y spiked today – despite the dismal jobs data (on more Fed taper and Powell speech headlines)…

Source: Bloomberg

New record all-time lows for 2Y and 5Y yields…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar ended the week unchanged… with weakness in the last two days as negative rates started to rear their ugly head…

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos were all higher on the week, with a notable alt-coin to bitcoin rotation…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin pushed up to $10,000 today…

Source: Bloomberg

Notably gold and Bitcoin surged as negative rates came into the picture (and gold dipped today as negative rates were priced out)…

Source: Bloomberg

Commodities were all higher this week…

Source: Bloomberg

But oil – again – was the big winner…though largely sideways $23-25…

Gold and Silver decoupled a few times this week…

GLD inflows continue their streak (30 days straight and counting)…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, as we noted earlier, the Nasdaq is now bigger than the rest of the world’s stock markets put together…

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/FOMC/USA

Worst Jobs Report In History: 20.5 Million Jobs Lost As Unemployment Rate Hits Record 14.7%

While economic fundamentals ceased to matter about a month ago when the Fed went nuclear and not only injected trillions in the bond and repo market, but also directly backstopped the corporate bond market (with many expecting it will do the same in equities), there is something utterly surreal and terrifying watching futures equity surge just as the US reports its worst jobs report in history, which it did moments ago when the BLS reported that in April, the US lost a record 20.5 million jobs, (not quite as bad as the 22 million expected but at this level what does it matter) the biggest drop in history, and 10x more than the 2 million jobs lost at the peak of the Great Depression.

Similarly, the unemployment rate, which just a few short months ago was at a 50-year low of 3.5%, exploded to the highest on record, surging by 10.3% to 14.7% (modestly below the 16.0% expected). This is the highest rate and the largest over-the-month increase in the history of the series (seasonally adjusted data are available back to January 1948). The number of unemployed persons rose by 15.9 million to 23.1 million in April, reflecting the effects of the coronavirus pandemic.

The BLS was quick to point out the impact of the coronavirus on the jobs report:

Due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, the relationship between the two was no longer stable in April. Therefore, the establishment survey made modifications to the birth-death model.

If the workers who were recorded as employed but absent from work due to “other reasons” (over and above the number absent for other reasons in a typical April) had been classified as unemployed on temporary layoff,the overall unemployment rate would have been almost 5 percentage points higher than reported (on a not seasonally adjusted basis).

In other words, the real unemployment rate was about 20%!

In any case, breaking the “goalseeked” number down, the Hispanic unemployment rate surged the most, and is now higher than that for blacks.

The number of Americans “temporarily” out of work, soared by over 17 million, also to a record high.

Alongside the surge in the unemployment rate, the labor force participation rate plunged by over 3% to 60.2%, the lowest since the early 1970s.

While all of these numbers, horrific as they may be, were generally as expected,there was an clear “WTF” moment when the BLS reported that the average hourly earnings in March soared by 7.9% Y/Y, smashing  expectations of a 3.3% increase. Despite failing to predict it in advance, economists were quick to “explain” that the number was inflated by disproportionate job losses among the lower-wage workers.

Looking at the composition of job losses, here is who was hit the hardest:

  • Leisure and hospitality payrolls: -7,653,000
  • Retail trade: -2,106,900
  • Professional and business services: -2,128,000
  • Health care and social assistance: -2,086,900
  • Manufacturing: -1,330,000
  • Construction: -975,000
  • Information: -254,000
  • Financial activities: -262,000
  • Transportation and warehousing: -584,100

Some more details:

In April, unemployment rates rose sharply among all major worker groups. The rate was 13.0 percent for adult men,
15.5 percent for adult women, 31.9 percent for teenagers, 14.2 percent for Whites, 16.7 percent for Blacks, 14.5
percent for Asians, and 18.9 percent for Hispanics. The rates for all of these groups, with the exception of Blacks,
represent record highs for their respective series. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)

The number of unemployed persons who reported being on temporary layoff increased about ten-fold to 18.1 million in
April. The number of permanent job losers increased by 544,000 to 2.0 million. (See table A-11.)

In April, the number of unemployed persons who were jobless less than 5 weeks increased by 10.7 million to
14.3 million, accounting for almost two-thirds of the unemployed. The number of unemployed persons who were
jobless 5 to 14 weeks rose by 5.2 million to 7.0 million. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless
for 27 weeks or more), at 939,000, declined by 225,000 over the month and represented 4.1 percent of the unemployed.
(See table A-12.)

The labor force participation rate decreased by 2.5 percentage points over the month to 60.2 percent, the lowest
rate since January 1973 (when it was 60.0 percent). Total employment, as measured by the household survey, fell
by 22.4 million to 133.4 million. The employment-population ratio, at 51.3 percent, dropped by 8.7 percentage points
over the month. This is the lowest rate and largest over-the-month decline in the history of the series (seasonally
adjusted data are available back to January 1948). (See table A-1.)

The number of persons who usually work full time declined by 15.0 million over the month, and the number who usually
work part time declined by 7.4 million. Part-time workers accounted for one-third of the over-the-month employment
decline. (See table A-9.)

The number of persons at work part time for economic reasons nearly doubled over the month to 10.9 million. These
individuals, who would have preferred full-time employment, were working part time because their hours had been
reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs. This group includes persons who usually work full time and
persons who usually work part time. (See table A-8.)

The number of persons not in the labor force who currently want a job, at 9.9 million, nearly doubled in April.
These individuals were not counted as unemployed because they were not actively looking for work during the last
4 weeks or were unavailable to take a job. (See table A-1.)

 

END

A Tragic Record: For The First Time Ever, More Than Half Of The US Population Is Not Working

Today’s jobs report was, as expected and as previously discussed, absolutely horrific, although as Bank of America points out there was one silver lining which Larry Kudlow quickly latched on to: with 72% of jobs lost being reflected as temporary layoffs, workers should be able to be more seamlessly rehired as the economy reopens. However, the longer this pandemic goes on, the more likely that what was temporary becomes permanent, and as we pointed out in a previous post, even baseline cases see unemployment not returning back to normal until 2022 or later.

Offsetting this “good news”, however, there was one especially scary aspect of today’s jobs report that has not gotten enough publicity, namely that as BofA writes, the employment to population ratio plunged to a record low, with only 51.3% of the population working. Inversely, this means that in April, 49% of the US population was not working.

It gets worse.

As a reminder, the BLS said that if the workers who were recorded as employed but absent from work due to “other reasons” had been classified as unemployed on temporary layoff, the overall unemployment rate would have been almost 5 percentage points higher than reported, meaning that the true unemployment rate as of this moment is 20%

White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett laid the groundwork for shocking the US population for this devastating reality, when he said in a CNN interview that next month’s jobs report “should be around 20%,” adding that the U-6, or the underemployment rate, will probably hit around 25% in the next report.

This means that the employment-to-population ratio is also undercounted by about 4-5%, and that as of this moment (we will get the May jobs data in 1 month), the employment to population ratio is below 50%, indicating that for the first time in history, more than half of the US population is unemployed!

Which is great news for stocks: think of all the people who have nothing better to do than buy the fucking dip all day with all that helicopter money the Fed will be showering on them for the coming years.

END

Stocks Soar In Response To Record Rise In Unemployment

Nothing says BTFD like the worst jobs data in US history…

Dow futures spiked over 150 points on the terrible data…

Are we seriously f**king rallying because “only” 20.5mm people lost their jobs (less than the 22mm expectation)?

WTF!

And of course, investors are selling bonds and bullion after this utter shitshow!?

And while “hope” is clearly driving stocks, it is even more rife on Main Street with over 18 million jobless Americans convinced their layoff is temporary and will be back within six months…

end

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

Michael Every..weighs in on the future Fed funds rate turning negative and the trouble that will cause..

(Michael Every..)

Rabobank On Negative Rate: If The US Is In That Much Trouble, Imagine How Much Trouble Everyone Else Is In

Submitted by Michael Every of Rabobank

75 years ago, the Allies defeated Nazism. Today is VE (Victory in Europe) Day, and a Bank Holiday Friday for once in the UK. Following VE day and the subsequent VJ day a few months later, WW2 ended; the US rebuilt the West and established a new US-centric world order; a huge slice of Europe and the world went communist and was sealed off behind high walls and barbed wire; the Cold War lasted from 1947 to 1991, when the Soviet Union collapsed; America, the only global hyper-power, then pushed ahead with an accelerated version of financial globalisation; the US seemed invincible – and then stumbled, with China seemingly ascendant. Besides respecting the Greatest Generation, who can’t have the public parades they deserve today, it’s worth recalling all this history on VE Day.

First, because Europe has spent much of this week showing how deep its divisions are in politics and economics. Serious questions are being asked by serious people about how its North-South and West-East gaps can be resolved: the UK is discussing a trade deal with the US even as it half-heartedly discusses Brexit with the EU; Germany’s constitutional court sees itself superior to the European Court of Justice; the gap in economic vision between Germany and Italy —and France– is widening; and EU member Hungary, according to Freedom House, is “no longer a democracy”. Meanwhile, the brave new “geopolitical” EU has just seen its 27 ambassadors to China allow a joint editorial written in China Daily to mark 45 years of EU-China diplomatic relations to be censored – and then the censored, not original, version to be shared on social media within the EU itself.

Second, because the US is deep into an America First policy and a new Cold War with China. True, USTR Lighthizer spoke with China’s Liu He on the phone yesterday and (so far only) the Chinese are reporting “both sides agreed that good progress is being made on creating the governmental infrastructures necessary to make the [phase one trade] agreement a success.” However, the overall direction in not just this presidential election campaign but in US politics and public opinion as a whole is abundantly clear: anti-China.

Of course, markets and US corporates will try to steer things, and the narrative, otherwise. Yet there is a growing movement within the Republican party, beyond Trump, to pushback against the post-WW2 in order to deal with China. Senator Rubio is one well-known voice. Another is Senator Hawley, who just Tweeted “Who is arguing for isolationism? I’m not. I’m arguing for American leadership to reform the global economic order to meet 21st c. American needs & security. Start by abandoning the WTO and replacing it.” This geopolitics flows back to local US politics, and so to markets, when conservative publications run articles about “The Building Blocks of a China Strategy” which conclude “the mantras of ‘free trade’ and ‘globalisation’ of the past three decades should no longer serve as an excuse for the business class to get rich at the expense of the citizenry; they are free to maximise their wealth provided they bring the citizenry with them.”

Meanwhile, the outright ‘success’ of the US post-Cold War economic strategy was exposed yet again as yesterday saw futures markets pricing in negative US rates by the end of 2020! Yes, US bills have briefly traded negative before but this is different – and hugely worrying. On one hand this speaks to obvious facts like the IMF downgrading its assessment of global growth: -3% is now too optimistic even if we don’t have a new figure yet. Yes, it also speaks to the fact that Texas just opened up, and while beaches and parks are rammed, shopping malls and restaurants are empty (or so says Reuters). However, the risk of the US upending of the global system, which is incredibly deflationary before it is inflationary, and of a Cold War with China we all get dragged into, which is incredibly expensive and requires the lowest-possible cost of funding, is arguably also part of the underlying narrative if one chooses to lift that particular stone. Many don’t.

Yet while the US is retreating from the global system, or set to reorder it, one post-WW2 legacy reigns supreme: the Eurodollar. Indeed, we can still ‘celebrate’ Victory in Eurodollar day even when the market is pricing negative US rates. How? Because if the US is in that much trouble, imagine how much trouble everyone else is in – and how many USD they are going to need and can’t get hold of.

Is it any wonder that EM FX, with a few exceptions like IDR, are plunging? As one key example, Piotr Matys covers the latest fall in TRY here and concludes “It is often difficult to admit when a wrong choice was made. But, the sooner it is done, the better as the damage will be less severe and recovery will be much faster. Persistently remaining on the wrong path is usually very damaging and costly, which leads to a much longer recuperation period.” I think Rubio and Hawley are trying to say the same thing.

Of course, there are other EM FX that are hardly faring better: BRL is at 5.84 as I write, for example, down 10.5% in a month and 45% YTD, and ARS is at 67.2, down 3.4% in a month and 12.2% YTD. Moreover, one can argue the more these two currencies in particular go down, the larger the total Eurodollar victory will then become. That’s because China is far more likely to want to buy Brazilian and Argentinean agri goods at low, low prices than from the more expensive US; hence the “phase one trade deal” is more likely to blow up – with dramatic consequences for CNY, which will flow back to other EM FX.

The Day Ahead

Of course, the main data focus today is US non-farm payrolls. The expectation is that 22 million people will lose their jobs and unemployment soar to 16%. What more can one add to that sentence? Merely to say that these are the kind of economic figures that led to the need for a VE Day in the first place.

Equity markets seem to think that the war is already over – but it’s barely begun.

 

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

Powell needs to address immediately whether he will entertain negative rates.  If he states he will not entertain negative rates, then that will be deemed a tightening and that might crash the markets.  If he does nothing, then negative rates will become a reality.  We must watch gold for clues..

(zerohedge)

Powell Needs To Immediately Address Negative Rates Or He Will Lose Control

Today was a historic day, not for the latest algo-driven meltup in stocks, but because for the first time ever, fed fund futures priced in negative rates, first in January 2021 and shortly after,  as recently as November 2020.

In response to the dramatic move which reverberated across asset classes, sending stocks and gold sharply higher, and 2Y yields plunging to record lows as markets suddenly realized that NIRP may be coming in just a few months, Richmond Fed president Thomas Barkin said that it’s not worth trying negative rates in the US:

“I think negative interest rates have been tried in other places, and I haven’t seen anything personally that makes me think they’re worth a try here.” He then added that “if you looked at data as of today, you’d see it about as low as it’s going to go. We’ll be bringing people back to work, and eventually hopefully people back to stores and the like, in the coming weeks and months, and I would expect the data to go up from here.”

But one look at fed funds after Barkin’s comments showed that markets barely noticed, with December implied rates still in negative territory.

Which means that only Powell addressing this issue – immediately – can reverse the market’s test of the Fed’s resolve to go from ZIRP to NIRP, because the longer Powell does nothing, the more negative rates will become widely accepted, and any “unexpectedly” denials by Powell in the coming months would be seen as  hawkish reversal and lead to another market crash, which the Fed will argue nobody could have possibly seen and be forced to cut to negative anyway.

This is the gist of the point made by BMO analyst Jon Hill today who wrote that with “certain fed funds futures contracts now trading with a negative implied yield… Powell needs to decide whether he wants to nip that possibility in the bud – if the FOMC drags their feet too much, they run the risk of creating either a self-fulfilling dynamic and/or having to effectively implement ‘hawkish’ Fedspeak later down the road.”

Hill’s own assessment remains that “a cut into negative territory remains unlikely. On three separate occasions during the last press conference, Powell referred to the current target range as the ‘effective lower bound’; implicitly acknowledging that any further reduction in the target range would be self-defeating.”

But clearly the market disagrees, and investors are already starting to push the ‘negative rates’ trade as soon as November.

Should Powell fail to respond, increasingly more proximal fed funds futures will breach the NIRP line, until the market eventually is convinced that NIRP is not only allowed but priced in. At that point it will be too late for Powell to do anything, because as recent events have shown, once there is another negative reaction in stocks, the Fed chair will fold like, well, a cheap lawn chair. And unless Powell is ready to inject another $2-3 trillion via QE, which would be the equivalent of catching down to the -1% r* (as calculated by Deutsche Bank), Powell only other option will be to throw his hands up and concede that the US has joined Japan and Europe in the monetary twilight zone.

Will that happen? We don’t know, but keep a close eye on gold: if the yellow metal hits $1800, then $1900, and then explodes above $2000, we’ll know what comes next.

END

 

2Y Yields Hit New Record Low As Market Pushes NIRP Bets Amid Powell Silence

The Fed has a major problem...

Futures markets are signaling, with increasing zeal, negative US interest rates as soon as November 2020…

In fact, as the chart above shows, Fed Fund Futures are pricing in a stunning negative 42bps rate in December 2020.

This collapse at the short-end has dragged 2Y rates to new record lows…

As Wrightson ICAP economist Lou Crandall warned in a note today, the longer the Fed is perceived to tolerate negative quotes in the futures market, “the more widespread the conviction that overnight rates will indeed turn negative will become.”

And if that expectation becomes “deeply entrenched,” the cost of disappointing the market later this year will increase.

Crandall notes that it is possible that the FOMC minutes on May 20 will “shoot down any market expectations of negative rates, but the minutes rarely give unequivocal guidance about future policy decisions”

FOMC members have said they don’t feel negative interest rates will be an appropriate policy for the U.S. in this cycle, “but the Fed has also repeatedly been forced to change its views on other policy implementation questions over the past year or two”

Negative overnight rates “are extremely unlikely to materialize,” though betting against unexpectedly aggressive Fed policy actions hasn’t been a winning strategy in recent months

Critically, Crandall concludes, The Fed needs to regain control of the overnight rate narrative, within the constraint of continuing to project an extremely supportive policy stance.

Finally, we note that as the negative-rate expectations have accelerated, so the dollar has accelerated lower…

This abrupt selling of the dollar perhaps reflects Deustche Bank’s recent scary conclusion: despite everything the Fed has done – which includes trillions in explicit liquidity injections and implicit funding backstops – not only does the Fed need to do more, but it would in fact have to cut rates to negative to offset pent up market imbalances.

Deutsche Bank wasn’t alone in its dire assessment: in a report published today Nordea’s FX strategist Andreas Steno Larsen went even further than the German Bank, writing that according to the bank’s model, “negative long USD yields could be the name of the game” and references the following chart correlating 10Y Treasurys with its implied yield which uses inputs from the global business cycle, inflation, Fed Funds, and the Fed’s long-term dot. In other words, not just the short-end will go red: the entire curve will soon be negative.

The wheels of the narrative were already moving earlier this week, when Ken Rogoff wrote a Project Syndicate piece titled “The Case for Deeply Negative Interest Rates” in which he wrote “imagine that, rather than shoring up markets solely via guarantees, the Fed could push most short-term interest rates across the economy to near or below zero. Europe and Japan already have tiptoed into negative rate territory. Suppose central banks pushed back against today’s flight into government debt by going further, cutting short-term policy rates to, say, -3% or lower.

Well, Ken, It would be absolutely devastating not only for what’s left of savers but the banking sector and by implication – since banks control everything in the US – the rest of the US economy. But we are delighted to sit back and watch as you conduct your final experiment.

END
LATE IN THE DAY:

Goodbye Negative Rates? Fed Funds Slide After Powell Adds May 13 Speech On “Current Economic Issues”

Earlier today we reported that 2Y yields hit record lows after Fed Funds futures accelerate their move to suggest increasingly more negative negative rates this morning, with the first negative implied rates expected to hit as soon as November.

And why not: as we explained last night, Powell had to “immediately” address markets and forcefully explain that the Fed will not allow negative rates (unless of course the Fed does plan on greenlighting NIRP) or else risk another crisis if in a few weeks when Powell finally does address this issue, when NIRP has become far more institutionalize, and risk a market revulsion to a hawkish Fed.

Well, we did not have long to wait, because with late 2020, early 2021 contracts hitting record high levels above 100 (implying increasingly more negative Fed Fund rates), some noticed thatPowell’s schedule was updated to include a speech on the economy on May 13 discussing “Current Economic Issues.”

In kneejerk reaction, Fed funds futures, perhaps expecting that the topic of the ad hoc speech will be the rate inversion, immediately dropped with late 2020 contracts lower by as much as 2bp, while most contracts fell to session lows, with Dec20 trading at 99.99 after dropping ~1bp after the schedule change was reported. The Jan21 contract also dropped below 100 vs session high 100.04 reached around the time of U.S. jobs report release.

As a result, all those implied fed funds rates which had turned negative as recently as this morning, spiked above 0% for all the closely watched contracts, from Nov 20 to Jan 21, and no longer price in negative rates, which while potentially hitting yields which are now at session highs, has yet to be noticed by stocks which continue to trade at session highs on the day the US reported its worst jobs report ever.

END

Texas reopening very anti climactic..malls and restaurants are empty …only beaches and parks are packed

(zerohedge)

Texas’ Anti-Climactic Reopening: Malls & Restaurants Empty, Beaches & Parks Packed

As predicted, even when the economy finally opens back up across the US, the severe hit which has already seen a number of major retailers file for bankruptcy – with Nieman Marcus being the latest Thursday, it won’t mark the end of the financial pain.

Take Texas, an early state to rapidly ease pandemic restrictions and hoped for test case in terms of seeing its economy roar back to life: as of last Friday during a ‘phase 1’ reopening malls, department stores, restaurants, and even movie theaters were able to finally open their doors (these are all allowed 25% of capacity seating per phase 1 restrictions).

And yet, as Reuters details while visiting the major metropolitan Domain mall in Austin, Texas, customers are still staying home, hardly to be seen.

 

File image via Getty

The situation appears bleak, and is a strong negative indicator for the entire country’s ‘reopening’ and economic recovery prospects:

A dozen or so people were strolling about the sprawling open-air shopping center Monday afternoon, with three seated on the patio of a Tex-Mex restaurant. Only one shopper wore a mask, and the loudest noises were from songbirds perched in the live oak trees along the deserted pedestrian thoroughfares.

“I’ve seen one customer today – they didn’t buy anything,” said Taylor Jund, who was keeping watch over an empty Chaser clothing store. “There’s absolutely no one coming around here.”

Restaurants have been allowed to reopen but only allowing for 25% capacity inside dining, with many also removing many tables and chairs to create natural social distancing in their seating and floor plans.

“It’s sad to know that this is the first Monday we’ve reopened, and a lot of the places are still very empty,” one food distribution company official that supplies Houston area restaurants said of the painfully slow, anti-climactic return to business. “I’m a little shocked it’s so dead out.”

There are venues which have witnessed an explosion of returned ‘normal’ activity, however — beaches, public and state parks, lakes, rivers and nature areas.

 

Crowds flock to Galveston Beach on May 2 in Galveston, Texas, AFP via Getty.

These are places where social distancing can be more easily practiced, without the dystopian-feeling scene of Plexiglas barriers separating one from a fellow diner sitting at a restaurant bar.

The state’s phase 2 opening is expected for May 18, however as Governor Greg Abbot said, “We need to see two weeks of data to confirm no flare-up of COVID-19,” which will determine whether it goes forward as planned.

 

Austin’s Domain Mall this week, via Reuters.

Meanwhile, phase 2 reopening looks optimistic regardless:

Texas Governor Greg Abbott modified his COVID-19 executive orders on Thursday, effectively setting free a woman jailed for refusing to close her business. Dallas salon owner Shelley Luther is serving a seven-day jail sentence for violating statewide stay-at-home orders. She reopened her business nearly two weeks ago and publicly tore up a cease-and-desist letter ordering her to close.

Abbott modified his orders to eliminate confinement as a punishment, and specifically named Luther in his announcement. The modifications are being applied retroactively to April 2, according to a press release from his office.

With such legal repercussions for reopening now greatly softened in Texas, the rush will be on, but will customers and clients actually return?

end

Heavy duty truck orders crash to a 25 year low

(zerohedge)

“Everything Has Been Cancelled”: Class 8 Heavy Duty Truck Orders Crash To 25 Year Low In April

The misery in Class 8 heavy duty truck orders continues. Still struggling with the remnants of an order backlog that started almost two years ago with record orders in August 2018, the industry was unable to find an equilibrium prior to the coronavirus pandemic. Orders were sluggish and we noted numerous trucking companies that closed up shop altogether in 2019.

Post-pandemic, things look even more helpless. In April, the industry posted its worst order number on record as the economy ground to a halt as a result of the nationwide lockdown. Only 4,000 Class 8 orders were made last month, which is down 73% year over year and 44% from March.

It was the lowest reading since FTR began tracking orders in 1996. Many companies canceled or delayed new orders as demand, measured by the ratio of loads to trucks, fell 66% in April, according to the Wall Street Journal.

The uncertain outlook going forward has prompted many companies that would normally be shelling out for new infrastructure to rein in their spending. For example, logistics company TFI’s Chief Executive Alain Bédard said in an April 22 call: “Everything has been canceled.”

Don Ake, FTR’s vice president of commercial vehicles said: “Fleets don’t need a lot of trucks in the short term and they’re unsure what they’ll need in the next few months, so they’re being cautious.”

Ake says the backlog of heavy duty trucks is still above 100,000 units, but could dip below 2017 levels once factories are back up and running. “The industry was going slow anyway, and the backlog will probably go below that 94,000 mark [in 2017] eventually,” he said.

“Fleets will remain extremely cautious going forward, but we expect orders to modestly increase as the freight markets recover,” Ake told FreightWaves. “We have already seen some signs of life in refrigerated freight and expect improvement in dry van freight soon. The industry recovery will begin in May, but it will be gradual, just like the overall economy.”

Daimler Trucks has suspended production at its plant in Oregon and two additional facilities in North Carolina. “The work outpaced the current capabilities of the supply chain,” the company said at the time. The factories are set to re-open and resume production on May 11.

Kenny Vieth, president of market forecaster ACT Research concluded: “The ramp out of this is going to be arduous. You can only build at the speed of your slowest supplier.”

He continued: “Given broadly halted economic output leading to a sharp drop in freight volumes and rates, as well as more empty miles from fragmented supply chains further impacting carriers’ profitability, a negative order number was within the realm of possibilities.

FTR is suggesting a potential rebound to about 10,000 orders in May.

end
Lack of freight is causing massive layoffs for truck drivers
(zerohedge)

Truck Drivers Suffer Largest Job Loss On Record After April Bloodbath Leaves 88,300 Unemployed

On Thursday we noted that Aprilorders for class 8 heavy trucks fell a staggering 73% year over year, and 44% from March – the worst order numbers on record as coronavirus shutdowns have put the trucking industry on the cusp of a “freight cliff”according to a FEMA report obtained by Politico.

Unsurprisingly, truck drivers have suffered an absolute bloodbath – losing approximately 88,300 jobs in April alone, according to Business Insider, which notes that it’s the largest single-month loss of trucking jobs on record (with records going back to 1990).

April wiped out all trucking employments gained during the past five years and a half years [sic], bringing the industry back to its employment numbers in November 2014.

The rest of the April jobs report, which was released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on May 8, was similarly jarring. Some 20.5 million payrolls were cut in April, which is 25 times larger than the worst monthly decline seen during the recession in the late 2000s. –Business Insider

And while truck drivers are considered “essential” workers amid the coronavirus pandemic, a collapse in freight volumes – of which nearly 75% of are moved by truck – has resulted in the devastating loss of jobs as the economy remains at a standstill.

Nationwide, the unemployment rate is now 14.7% – the highest since the Great Depression as BI notes.

Problems were already there

According to industry data from Broughton Capital, the trucking industry was already in bad shape – with around 640 companies going bankrupt in the first half of 2019, an increase of more than 300% over 2018’s bankruptcies. According to the Institute of Supply Management, the 2019 trucking recession was due to the decline in manufacturing, which had contracted for several months last year.

END
Car manufacturers in big trouble as Rental Car companies stop placing orders for vehicles..People are just not travelling
(zerohedge)

Automakers In Chaos As Broke Rental Car Companies Stop Placing Orders For Vehicles

Recall, it was just weeks ago that we pointed out how a crash in used car prices could be putting significant pressure on the rental car industry. That is, obviously, in addition to the fact that nobody is traveling. 

Since then, it has been rumored that Hertz has hired advisors to consider a bankruptcy and the auto industry has placed a major bet on incentives to try and move inventory off of their lots.

But automakers are about the feel the brunt of the chaos in the rental car industry, as both Hertz and Avis have put stops on purchases and, in some cases, re-directed purchases they’ve already made to additional parking lots, according to Bloomberg.

The companies have cancelled “all orders of GM vehicles for May, June and into July”.

This has left GM and Hyundai taking back cars that it had agreed to sell to Hertz, Avis and Enterprise. Last month, Fiat underwent efforts to try and redirect almost 30,000 vehicles these companies had purchased, but was unable to transfer them.

The chaos continued this month when Avis had to sell $500 million in junk bonds and Hertz was granted a last-minute concession from its lenders to narrowly avoid bankruptcy.

Rental car sales fell 77% in April and Fiat was the hardest hit with loss of total fleet sales, according to Cox Automotive. 

Avis has said it is expecting revenue to fall 80% for two months in a row. Hertz said it doesn’t expect to acquire new vehicles for the rest of the year. Meanwhile, delivery to fleet customers represents about 20% of carmakers’ total business.

Recall, we wrote just days ago that automakers were having so much trouble finding space for their vehicles that ships from overseas were being denied entry at ports and sent back out into the ocean.

Bob Carter, executive vice president of sales at Toyota Motor Corp.’s North American unit said: “There was virtually no business last month in the fleet industryAs we transitioned to people not traveling, the rental-car demand dropped precipitously.”

end

Michael Snyder..52% of all small businesses in the uSA expect to be out of business in the next 6 months

a very import read..

Michael Snyder…

 

 

52% Of Small Businesses “Expect To Be Out Of Business Within Six Months”; Shocking New Survey

Authored by Michael Snyder via TheMostImportantNews.com,

Anyone that was hoping for a “quick recovery” for the U.S. economy can forget about that right now.  Yes, many states are attempting to “reopen”, but in most cases it will be a multi-stage process that takes many months to complete.  Meanwhile, fear of COVID-19 is going to keep many Americans from conducting business as usual even after all of the restrictions have been finally lifted.  Even now, many of the stores, restaurants and movie theaters that have reopened are seeing very, very few customers.  Unfortunately, millions of small businesses are not going to be able to survive in such a depressed economic environment for very long.

In America today, the rules of the game are slanted very heavily in favor of huge corporations and are slanted very heavily against small businesses.

It has been this way for years, but millions of small business owners just kept soldiering on because they wanted to work for themselves and not some corporate behemoth.

But for most small businesses things have never been easy.  For most of them, it is usually such a struggle to try to eke out a very meager profit at the end of the month after covering expenses and payroll.  But now COVID-19 has come along, and many small businesses haven’t had any revenue for weeks.

The good news is that the lockdowns are starting to end, but the bad news is that many small business owners are facing a “new normal” in which their monthly revenues will be down by 30, 40 or 50 percent (or more). All of a sudden many small businesses that were once barely profitable have been transformed into businesses that are bleeding a lot of cash each month, and many of them simply are not going to make it.

It was always obvious that this pandemic would kill a lot of those businesses, but the true scope of the problem wasn’t apparent until now.  According to Bloomberg, a survey that was just conducted found that 52 percent of U.S. small business owners “expect to be out of business within six months”…

COVID-19 could shutter most American small businesses.

That’s according to a new survey from the Society for Human Resource Management which found that 52% expect to be out of business within six months. The survey of 375 firms was conducted between April 15-21 and doesn’t account for improved business conditions as some U.S. states reopen this month.

Yes, the big corporate giants dominate our society today, but there are still lots and lots of small businesses out there.

Ultimately, we are talking about millions upon millions of businesses that are about to be destroyed

“SHRM has tracked Covid-19’s impact on work, workers, and the workplace for months,” said SHRM Chief Executive Officer Johnny C. Taylor, Jr., “but these might be the most alarming findings to date. Small business is truly the backbone of our economy. So, when half say they’re worried about being wiped out, let’s remember: We’re talking about roughly 14 million businesses.”

Around the country, governors can choose to end the lockdowns, but they can’t order customers to go out and spend money.

And considering the fact that more than 30 million Americans have lost their jobs over the last six weeks, a lot of them don’t have money to spend anyway.

But even if everyone was still working, there is a large segment of the population that will simply be afraid to venture into public places as long as this pandemic is going on.

If you doubt this, just consider what we are witnessing in Texas.  Reuters sent a reporter to one of the most popular malls in Austin, and what that reporter discovered is quite sobering

A dozen or so people were strolling about the sprawling open-air shopping center Monday afternoon, with three seated on the patio of a Tex-Mex restaurant. Only one shopper wore a mask, and the loudest noises were from songbirds perched in the live oak trees along the deserted pedestrian thoroughfares.

“I’ve seen one customer today – they didn’t buy anything,” said Taylor Jund, who was keeping watch over an empty Chaser clothing store. “There’s absolutely no one coming around here.”

If even 20 percent of customers stay away for the foreseeable future, that is going to be enough to kill millions of small businesses.

So the truth is that we are facing a major national crisis.

A while back, Congress passed a bill that was supposed to help small businesses survive the lockdowns, but as I mentioned in a previous article it looks like that program has been a massive failure

According to the CNBC/SurveyMonkey Small Business Survey released Monday, which surveyed 2,200 small business owners across America, while the $660 billion Paycheck Protection Program was instituted to give them a lifeline through the coronavirus and economic shutdown, only 13% of the 45% who applied for the PPP were approved.

Meanwhile, the cost of living is actually going up.  Thanks to the ongoing meat shortages, fresh meat prices are escalating quite rapidly

Fresh meat prices escalated 8.1% in stores, compared to the same period last year, according to Nielsen data for the week ending April 25.

Experts expect prices to skyrocket in the coming weeks, as meat processing plants across the U.S. are forced to close due to the coronavirus pandemic. Pork and beef prices could increase by as much as 20% compared to 2019, according to a new report from CoBank, a cooperative bank that is part of the Farm Credit System.

The economic collapse that so many have been warning about is here, and it is going to continue whether there are lockdowns or not.

Yes, there will be ups and down ahead, and there will be moments of legitimate optimism.

18 million Americans remain convinced that these layoffs are just temporary and they will have their jobs back in six months. Given this survey, we suspect that number is extremely optimistic.

But nobody is going to be able to stop the process that has now begun, and economic conditions will ultimately become far worse than most Americans would dare to imagine.

end

JC Penney Strikes $500 Million Bankruptcy Financing Deal; Expected To File Next Week

JC Penney has spurned a bankruptcy financing package that was reportedly being put together by a consortium of Wall Street banks and is instead running right back into the arms of private equity for $500 million in cash plus a handful of other perks.

Bloomberg reports JC Penney is negotiating a bankruptcy loan with KKR & Co., Ares, Sixth Street Partners & Apollo. According to details reported by BBG, the deal would leave Penney with $500M in cash and a slashed debt burden in exchange for control of the company, which will remain in operation.

The plan will reportedly be included in the department store’s bankruptcy filing, which should arrive as soon as next week. This latest development in JCP’s bankruptcy saga – one of an expected wave of bankruptcies as the massive pile of junk-rated or just-above-junk debt rattling around the economy sparks a massive reckoning, something Sam Zell says is a painful but necessary stop on the way back.

Yesterday, we reported that Neiman Marcus was filing (it officially filed just a few hours ago).

And the list grows thinner…

iv) Swamp commentaries)

Schiff fold and publishes the Russiagate transcripts after a showdown with DNI Grenell

(zerohedge)

Schiff Folds: Publishes Russiagate Transcripts After Showdown With DNI

Following the standoff between Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA) and Acting DNI Richard Grenell, the House Intelligence Committee published all of the Russia investigation transcripts Thursday evening.

Interview Transcripts:

Brooke Singman

@BrookeSingman

NEW: former DNI James Clapper says : “I never saw any direct empirical evidence that the Trump campaign or someone in it was plotting/ conspiring with the Russians to meddle with the election.” — in transcript of interview with House Intel during its Russia probe.

 

Via SaraACarter.com,

House Intelligence Committee Chairman Rep. Adam Schiff is planning to selectively release  information from some of the 53 declassified transcripts of witnesses that testified before Congress regarding the FBI’s Russia probe into the Trump campaign. This move, comes after a long battle against Republican colleagues, who are fighting to make all the transcripts available to the American public, said a U.S. official, with knowledge of Schiff’s plans.

Schiff has been fighting the release of the transcripts.

The decision for Schiff to publish a selective portion of the 6,000 pages of transcripts comes after a recent public showdown with Director of National Intelligence Richard Grenell, who is also fighting to make all the transcripts public. In fact, Grenell reiterated in a letter Wednesday that if Schiff doesn’t make the transcripts public then he will release them himself.

Interestingly, the committee voted unanimously in the fall of 2018, to make all the transcripts public after declassification, which has already been done.

“Schiff’s planning to selectively leak to the liberal media what he wants, while keeping the truth from the American people,” said one source, familiar with Schiff’s plans.

Schiff’s office did not immediately respond to an email for comment.

A congressional source familiar with the issue said “the committee voted in the last Congress to publish all the transcripts together, precisely to avoid any staged release calculated for political effect.”

“Schiff has had possession of most of the redacted transcripts for a long time, but he used the fact that he didn’t have all of them as an excuse not to publish any,” said the congressional source.

“If he selectively publishes just some of them now, it’ll be rank hypocrisy.”

Allegedly Schiff is also having his senior subcommittee staff director and counsel with the intelligence committee contact the various heads of the intelligence community asking them to challenge plans by Grenell to release the transcripts, which were declassified prior to his arrival at DNI.

Several sources, familiar with Schiff’s actions, have stated that his refusal to release the transcripts is based on information contained in the testimony that will destroy his Russia hoax propaganda.

“Schiff has been sitting on a lot of these transcripts for a long time,” said a Republican congressional source.

“They were using this as an excuse to ensure that the White House wouldn’t have access to the transcripts, now he wants to selectively leak and that’s the game he plays – he’s definitely shifty.

END

Fraud everywhere:  Mueller badly misled the White House..Schiff is a big liar

(zerohedge)

“There’s No Question It’s A Fraud”: Fmr Trump Attorney Says Mueller “Badly Misled” White House, Schiff Is “Nancy’s Liar”

Former Trump attorney John Dowd says it’s “staggering” that former Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s “so-called Dream Team would put on such a fraud,” after the Wednesday release of the investigation’s “scope memo” revealed that Mueller was tasked with investigating accusations from Clinton-funded operative Christopher Steele which the DOJ already knew were debunked.

“In the last few days, I have been going back through my files and we were badly misled by Mueller and his senior people, particularly in the meetings that we had,” Dowd told Fox News Radio host Brian Kilmeade on Thursday.

The scope memo also revealed that Mueller’s authority went significantly beyond what was previously known – including “allegations that Carter Page committed a crime or crimes by colluding with Russian government officials with respect to the Russian government’s efforts to interfere with the 2016 election for President of the United States, in violation of United States law,” yet as John Solomon of Just The News noted on Wednesday – the FBI had already:

  • fired Steele as an informant for leaking;
  • interviewed Steele’s sub-source, who disputed information attributed to him; 
  • ascertained that allegations Steele had given the FBI specifically about Page were inaccurate and likely came from Russian intelligence sources as disinformation;
  • been informed repeatedly by the CIA that Page was not a Russian stooge but, rather, a cooperating intelligence asset for the United States government.

There’s no question it’s a fraud … I think the whole report is just nonsense and it’s staggering that the so-called ‘Dream Team’ would put on such a fraud,” Dowd said, according to Fox News.

Dowd also discussed Connecticut U.S. Attorney John Durham’s investigation into the origins of the Russia probe, which is expected to be wrapped up by the end of the summer.

“Durham has really got a load on his hands tracking all this down,” Dowd said.

Durham was appointed last year by Attorney General Bill Barr to review the events leading up to Trump’s inauguration. However, Durham has since expanded his investigation to cover a post-election timeline spanning the spring of 2017, when Mueller was appointed as special counsel. –Fox News

“Nancy’s Liar”

Dowd also circled back to a claim by House Intelligence Committee Chairman Adam Schiff that there was “direct evidence” that the Trump campaign colluded with Russia during the 2016 election, despite the fact that transcripts of House Intelligence Committee interviews proving otherwise.

“Schiff doesn’t release these interviews because they’re going to make him a liar,” said Dowd, adding “They’re going to expose him and he’ll be run out of town.”

“He lied for months in the impeachment inquiry. He’s essentially Nancy [Pelosi]’s liar and he’s now going to be exposed.”

end
A good read…

The Compliant & Complicit Media Has A Lot To Answer For”

Authored by James Howard Kunstler via Kunstler.com,

“I Sent Them!”

“Our utter incompetence actually helps us,” declared Deputy Assistant Director of the FBI Peter Strzok to his confident (10,000 text messages) and paramour, FBI attorney Lisa Page, when he discovered on January 4, 2017, that the agency had omitted to close the barren Crossfire Razor case against General Michael Flynn.

There you have a perfect summary of the fantastic hubris at work in the agency-gone-rogue under then-FBI Director Jim “I sent them” Comey days before the swearing-in of a president somehow mistakenly elected by bamboozled voters — or so the thinking apparently went at the highest level there. Or what passed for thinking.

General Flynn, you see, having been anathemized by Barack Obama, and black-spotted by the so-called Interagency (i.e. the giant hairball of competing spy shops set up after the 9/11 fiasco), was about to assume the pivotal job of White House National Security Advisor, and it was known that he was fixing to change things up with all that. He had been director of one such shop, the Defense Intelligence Agency, for a few years and he had a fair idea just how lawlessly debauched the Intel Community had grown under CIA Director John Brennan and Director of National Intelligence James Clapper, not to mention Mr. Comey, and they all knew that.

So, General Flynn had to go, and then get squeezed hard to somehow rat-out his boss, the incoming President Trump, against whom the Interagency had nothing but a dossier of already discredited oppo research baloney courtesy of the Clinton campaign.

The pretext was some conversations General Flynn had with Russian Ambassador Sergey Kislyak a few weeks before the inauguration. The FBI cooked up a “narrative” that it was criminal misbehavior for a duly appointed incoming NSA to confab with foreign diplomats ­— a completely specious notion, of course. The Interagency’s errand boys in the press ran with that preposterous story, and the inconsolable cohort of Hillary voters herding up to form “the Resistance” went along with the gag out of sheer, crazed bitterness.

Attorney General William Barr neatly disposed of that yarn Thursday in his remarkable chat with Catherine Herridge of CBS-News (transcript here), saying:

[H]e [General Flynn] was the designated national security adviser for President-Elect Trump, and was part of the transition, which is recognized by the government and funded by the government as an important function to bring in a new administration. And it is very typical, very common, for the national security team of the incoming president to communicate with foreign leaders.”

Could it be plainer?

In dismissing the case, Mr. Barr gave such concise, lucid, and comprehensive account of his action that the enraged cadres of the Resistance immediately set their hair on fire and lit up the cable news channels with thunderous objurgation. The most amusing instance featured the apoplectic homunculus Jerrold Nadler, who threatened to haul Mr. Barr before his House Judiciary committee to do some ‘splainin’ in the matter. That’s a colloquy I’d pay to hear – the stolid AG laying it out again in calm, straight talk with Mr. Nadler in such a stammering fury that his bariatric surgery adhesions finally give out and the committee chamber gets splattered with  bits of brisket, kugel, and Dr. Brown’s Cel-Ray tonic.

Another ripe one was the MSNBC session between Resistance errand-boy Chris Hayes and the redoubtably mendacious Congressman Adam Schiff, whose own overloaded garbage barge of seditious perfidy was blown out of the water with one well-aimed torpedo by new Acting Director of National Intelligence, Richard Grenell, who threatened to immediately release Mr. Schiff’s trove of long-hidden interview transcripts from the House Intelligence Committee 2017 hearings on RussiaGate if the congressman did not do it himself and at once. The transcripts, you see, completely refute Mr. Schiff’s own longstanding edifice of falsehood about having evidence of collusion between Mr. Trump and Russia. If the Democratic Party had any dignity, they’d take away his committee chairmanship, at least.

We await additional action from Mr. Grenell over Mr. Schiff’s still-concealed transcript of Intel Community Inspector General Michael Atkinson’s secret testimony in last year’s impeachment hearings. Congresspersons enjoy limited immunity against the fallacious and slanderous things they say on-the-job, but not from felony crimes, and Mr. Schiff may find himself liable for something like seditious conspiracy around his intrigues with so-called “whistleblower,” Eric Ciaramella, and others, in the UkraineGate sting operation.

A great deal of evidence of official criminal malfeasance has spilled into the public arena over the past three years, but recently it has turned into a flood, perhaps due to Mr. Grenell’s efforts, perhaps due to the posse of attorneys around Mr. Barr, including especially Jeffrey Jensen and John Durham. The official narratives of the RussiaGate conspirators are now openly overturned. Too many people know everything. The chronology of their misdeeds is now clearly established ­— for instance, the fact that the highest officials in the FBI and the DOJ knew by January 2017 that their sole asseveration of Russian collusion, the Steele dossier, was an utter, concocted, crock-of-shit.

Which means, of course, that the Mueller Investigation ­— begun months later — was also an adventure in bad faith, malicious falsehood, and official treachery. Everyone connected with it ought to be running scared now. Surely some will be indicted and tried, perhaps many. It will go hard on the whole Resistance, including the millions of rank-and-file Democrats who linked arms to cheerlead countless acts of legal depravity that have undermined American principles of justice and fairness. Accounting for all that in the courts will put extra strains on this society beset by the corona virus crisis and the harshest economic disaster in US history. It’s a hard passage, but it can’t be avoided.

The compliant and complicit news media has a lot to answer for, not only to the public but to their boards of directors — if those boards still have a vestige of decency. But for the moment they are still pretending that there’s nothing to see. Sooner or later, though, it will hit them, all those editors and cable news executives — that in their bubble of arrogant self-righteousness, they parlayed away their self-respect, their professional reputations, and the personal honor.

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

US shelves detailed guide [CDC’s effort to command control the economy] to reopening country – AP

The Trump administration has shelved a document created by the nation’s top disease investigators with step-by-step advice to local authorities on how and when to reopen restaurants and other public places during the still-raging coronavirus outbreak… The Trump administration has instead sought to put the onus on states to handle COVID-19 response…  https://apnews.com/7a00d5fba3249e573d2ead4bd323a4d4

The spurt on the above story produced the peak for Thursday.  Sellers then took over and sold until the NYSE close.  It was the third straight session of last selling.  Perhaps, the aggressive overnight buying was due to someone having nonpublic information about the US plan to reopen the economy. PS – The bulk of Thursday’s rally occurred overnight, a dynamic that has become typical over the past two decades.

US Initial Jobless Claims hit 3.17 million; 3 million was expected.  Continuing Jobless Claims jumped to 22.647 million from 18.011 million.  19.8 million was expected.

WaPo: Neiman Marcus files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, the second major retailer this week pushed to do so by the coronavirus pandemic – $5 billion in debt…The company’s filing comes three days after mall-based apparel chain J. Crew filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection…

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/05/07/neiman-marcus-bankruptcy-chapter11/

Fed’s Daly says her contacts don’t expect quick economic recovery

2020 will be a year of declining economic growth, San Francisco Fed president says…

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/feds-daly-says-her-contacts-dont-expect-quick-economic-recovery-2020-05-07

@EmilyRoseFinn: Mich. @GovWhitmer extends state’s stay-at-home order until May 28 amid #COVID19 pandemic. Also announced manufacturing workers (i.e. “Big Three” auto companies: GM, Ford & Fiat Chrysler) can return to work on Monday.

Michigan governor to announce manufacturing can reopen in state… May 11 http://dlvr.it/RWC3X2

After declining sharply on Wednesday, financial stocks soared on Thursday on what appeared to be manic short covering.  In fact, the relentless equity, bond and commodity buying on Thursday is characteristic on aggressive short covering.  All markets rallied sharply on Thursday, which is a rarity.

The rally in everything on Thursday produced conflicting media reports and headlines.

U.S. 2-Year Yield Falls to Record Low as Economy Shows Strain

Pandemic fallout contributes to falling yields across curve

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-07/u-s-2-year-yield-falls-to-record-low-as-economy-shows-strain

Nasdaq turns positive for 2020 as investors bet on economic recovery

https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/us-stocks-may-7-2020

Bonds rallied on Thursday despite the trillions of dollars of looming issuance on the belief that the US economy won’t rebound quickly.  Stocks soared on belief that the US economy will rebound quickly!?!?

California will have a budget shortfall of $54.3 billion because of the economic devastation wrought by the coronavirus, Gov. Gavin Newsom’s administration announced Thursday. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/07/california-faces-a-staggering-54-billion-budget-deficit-due-to-economic-devastation-from-coronavirus.html

The alarming rise of algorithms as heroes of the stock recovery

High-frequency traders like him in control… Goldman Sachs repeated the often-heard observation that Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, and Google make up 20 per cent of the index, the highest for any five members in more than 30 years… Amazon.com Inc., whose shares have soared, may be a huge employer, but has displaced many times more workers than it has hired…

    The two best performing S&P 500 sectors this year — information technology and health care — just happen to hold the largest weights in the index. Both have fallen less than 3 per cent, and combined, the two industries make up 41 per cent of the S&P 500… On the flip-side, if you zero in on the companies most negatively affected by the virus, including airlines and leisure stocks, they only make up 10 to 20 per cent of the S&P 500… https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/the-alarming-rise-of-algorithms-as-heroes-of-the-stock-recovery-1.1432747

@EpochTimes: About 77% of deaths linked to COVID19 in Connecticut in late April took place in Nursing Homes as states struggle to keep the elderly alive amid the Pandemic.

“Things will only be normal if the whole world population is vaccinated, this is our top priority.” — Bill Gates

Dr. Fauci and Dr. Birx Used Imperial College Model — NOW CONFIRMED AS A COMPLETE FRAUD — To Persuade President Trump to Lock Down Entire US Economy!

** The fraudulent model predicted 2.2 million American deaths from the coronavirus pandemic

** The authors of the Imperial College Model shared their findings with the White House Coronavirus task force in early March

** Dr. Fauci and Dr. Birx then met with President Trump privately and urged him to shut down the US economy and destroy the record Trump economy

** A new critique of the Imperial College Model finds the study is “completely unusable for scientific purposes” — The study is a sham…

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/05/huge-news-dr-fauci-dr-birx-used-imperial-college-model-now-confirmed-complete-fraud-persuade-president-trump-lock-entire-us-economy/

NYT: White House Takes New Line after Dire Report on Death Toll     March 16, 2020

What had led to the change in thinking by a White House task force, Dr. Deborah Birx, one of the task force leaders, said new information had come from a model developed in Britain… Dr. Birx’s description of the findings was consistent with those in the report, released on Monday by an epidemic modeling group at Imperial College London. The lead author of the study, Neil Ferguson, an epidemiology professor, said in an interview that his group had shared their projections with the White House task force about a week ago and that an early copy of the report was sent over the weekend.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/16/us/coronavirus-fatality-rate-white-house.html

NYT: Travel from New York City Seeded Wave of U.S. Outbreaks – The coronavirus outbreak in New York City became the primary source of infections around the United States, researchers have found…   https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/07/us/new-york-city-coronavirus-outbreak.html

DOJ drops case against Michael Flynn, in wake of internal memo release [after 3 years of torment]

Earlier Thursday, the top prosecutor on the case, Brandon Van Grack, abruptly withdrew from the casewithout explanation, in a brief filing with the court… The case has come at an enormous cost for the retired three-star Army lieutenant general and his family, as he racked up millions of dollars in legal bills, was forced to sell his house, lost his job, and saw his reputation sullied…

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/drops-doj-case-against-michael-flynn-in-wake-of-internal-memo-release

@JonathanTurley: The Justice Department did the right thing in seeking this dismissal. The new evidence not only undermined the legitimacy of the prosecution but the Justice Department itself. For those blinded by this age of rage, the abuse has been ignored and even defended. This is long overdue

    The motion notes that McCabe “cut off” objections raised about the aggressive pursuit of Flynn. It lays out a Department under Comey that was seeking to bag Flynn at any cost and on any grounds. Some may defend this record as “standard” but it had little to do with justice.

@STUinSD: [Fox’s] Brett Baier just touched… the big issue with the DoJ dropping the Flynn case – the impact on the 2018 elections. The Democrats would NOT have taken the House without the Mueller special counsel (which would not have been started without Flynn).

@Rasmussen_Poll: ICYMI: As more suppressed 2016 / 2017 / 2018 evidence of governmental malfeasance is rolled out don’t forget this survey. Democrats retook the House in Nov 2018. Here is how national Likely Voters ranked key issues mid-summer 2018… Healthcare wasn’t the key midterm election issue with likely voters in mid-summer 2018. It was that @realDonaldTrump had been ‘credibly accused’ of being a Russian supplicant. [15% GOP, 37% Dems, 29% Ind listed as their top issue]https://twitter.com/Rasmussen_Poll/status/1257761096271790080/photo/1

President Obama discussed Flynn probe with Comey at White House meeting – according to a court filing on Thursday…Mr. Obama called the two aside during a Jan. 5, 2017 White House meeting, according to Ms. Yates’ interview [Biden was present]… Ms. Yates recalled that Mr. Comey told the president about the Logan Act, a 1799 law that prohibits private citizens from opposing current foreign affairs policies… The Justice Department filed the Yates 302 with its motion to dismiss the Flynn case…   https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/may/7/president-obama-discussed-flynn-probe-comey-white-/

When the campaign hits high gear, Team DJT will pound Biden for being part of a conspiracy/coup to unseat him or for remaining silent during the 4 years of Spygate and the prosecutions of innocent people.

When the Durham indictments appear, the Americans that believed in the Russian Collusion scam will have a moment of great introspection – especially if there is proof of a Deep State coup!!!

@RoscoeBDavis1: I recommend reading the entire [DoJ] filing, it’s pretty entertaining and looks like it sets the table for these corrupt bastards to go after each otherit names names and roles in this travesty. Yates, McCord, McCabe, Comey, Strzok and Page are in for some fun.

The first member of Team Mueller to spill the beans gets the best deal!  Regardless of what occurs criminally, Gen. Flynn will soon file multi-million dollar lawsuits against numerous Spygate figures.

@kevincorke: Sources tell Fox News acting DNI Richard Grenell planning to release new trove of documents as early as tomorrow. Expected to be related to the Russia probe and will be significant

Last night Adam Schiff released the House Intel Committees transcripts (over 6k pages) on Russia Collusion testimony that he had been withholding.

House intel transcripts show top Obama officials had no ’empirical evidence’ of Trump-Russia collusion – I never saw any direct empirical evidence that the Trump campaign or someone in it was plotting/conspiring with the Russians to meddle with the election,” former Director of National Intelligence James Clapper testified in 2017. “That’s not to say that there weren’t concerns about the evidence we were seeing, anecdotal evidence. … But I do not recall any instance where I had direct evidence.”https://www.foxnews.com/politics/intel-transcripts-obama-officials-no-empirical-evidence-trump-russia-collusion

Fox’s @BrookeSingman: Ambassador Rice when asked whether she had evidence of collusion, conspiracy, coordination: “I don’t recall intel or evidence to that effect,” House Intel Russia transcript

Former AG Loretta Lynch was asked whether she had evidence of collusion, coordination or conspiracy. She said that she did “not recall that being briefed up to me.” “I can’t say that it existed or not,” Lynch said, according to House Intel Russia transcripts Loretta Lynch

If Lynch is truthful, why was the US Attorney General not in the loop on Russia-DJT investigations?

@ChadPergram: [Hillary Campaign Chair] John Podesta to Intel Cmte on if he had info that there were ties between Russia/Trump campaign: I have no specific facts or information relating to conversations that may have been had between ppl from the Trump campaign & either Assange or representatives of the Russian gov’t

The Fed balance sheet increased $65.492B to $6.721420 trillion for the week ended on Wednesday.

https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/current/

Today – The last-hour tumbles on Tuesday and Wednesday plus the afternoon decline on Thursday indicate that traders are getting long overnight and during early US trading; but there are few organic buyers or greater fools to absorb their day-trading longs.  Unless real buyers appear soon, a retreat will materialize.  When FANGs can no longer rally, the equity market will be in trouble.

Part of the late decline on Thursday was April Employment Report trepidation. So, there could be a spirited rally if Nonfarm Payrolls are in line or better than the expected 21.25 million job losses.

The Supreme Court on Thursday unanimously overturned the convictions from the Bridgegate Scandal, which ensnared some of ex-Gov of NJ Chris Christie’s aides.  In their ruling the SCOTUS also destroyed the basis for the Dems’ impeachment of Trump.  The US high court ruled that political advantage is not akin to property.  In other words, Trump’s Ukraine policy cannot be prosecuted as ‘extortion’.

Jonathan Turley: Supreme Court Unanimously Throws out Bridgegate Convictions — And Rejects Prior Legal Arguments against Trump – “That requirement, this Court has made clear, prevents these statutes from criminalizing all acts of dishonesty by state and local officials…”

    That is the argument that I raised in the impeachment against the proposed articles of impeachment — supported by a host of experts on MSNBC and CNN as well as Democratic members — that the Ukrainian allegations could be charged as mail and wire fraud as well as crimes like extortion…

The shared element is the treatment of political advantage as a thing of value (or akin to property) to support claims under the Hobbs Act, extortion provisions, wire and wire fraud provisions, election fraud provisions and other criminal provisions… The media is unlikely to note that these theories were proven not just wrong but rejected unanimously by the Court…The media remains a bottomless pit for such theories so long as they suggest that Trump or his associates could be criminally charged or impeached.  What is most striking is that such rulings receive no coverage in what they say about prior discredited theories.  Legal analysis seems entirely untethered to legal authority in this age of rage.

https://jonathanturley.org/2020/05/07/supreme-court-unanimously-throws-out-bridgegate-convictions-and-rejects-prior-legal-argument-against-trump/

Biden’s public health advisory committee repeatedly downplayed coronavirus threat

Emanuel… quickly downplayed the threat of coronavirusEmanuel added that the coronavirus “sort of behaves like the flu,”

    Dr. Rebecca Katz, a professor and Director of the Center for Global Health Science and Security at Georgetown University Medical Center, warned in January that travel bans can “cause public panic” and “impede individual rights.“… “The good news thus far is that the coronavirus appears to be less lethal than its viral cousin SARS was in 2002 and far less lethal than Ebola was in 2014,” Monaco wrote.

   On March 12, speaking to CNN, Monaco also hit the travel restrictions imposed by the Trump administration on China… On January 28, just three days before Trump closed off most travel from China, Klain said he opposed that measure.  The evidence “suggests” the coronavirus won’t be a “serious pandemic,” he said Feb. 11…

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/bidens-public-health-advisory-committee-downplayed-repeatedly-downplayed-coronavirus-threat

1996 court document confirms Tara Reade shared Biden harassment allegation – San Luis Obispo Tribune    The San Luis Obispo County court filing is the first official public record confirming she made allegations at that time… https://www.sanluisobispo.com/news/politics-government/article242527331.html

END

Flynn Free, HCQ MSM Lies, Economy Trouble

By Greg Hunter On May 8, 2020

General Michael Flynn is a free man after the DOJ dropped all charges against President Trump’s former National Security Advisor. New documents released recently showed a conspiracy to frame the 33 year war hero. It was all part of a plot by the Obama Administration, FBI, DOJ and CIA to try to remove President Trump from office. It is an elaborate coup attempt that failed and is looking like the case for indictments for conspiracy and sedition for many people may be coming from AG Barr and his prosecutor John Durham. This certainly will factor into the ongoing criminal investigation into the obvious criminal activity.

More new studies about the effectiveness of Hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) in curing Covid 19 are coming out to refute the mainstream media (MSM) lies about this lifesaving drug. The MSM misquotes valid studies or ignores them and quotes fraud and fake studies all in an effort to make the public think that HCQ is not curing people who use this drug. It’s just another reason that shows the MSM fake news is an enemy of the people. There is blood on their hands.

Everybody is happy that parts of the U.S. economy are beginning to open up, but is there really cause for this much celebration especially in the stock market? A hard look at the facts shows the country and the world has a long road to recovery.

Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com talks about these stories and more in the Weekly News Wrap-Up.

-END-

World economic news:

Well that is all for today

I will see you MONDAY night.

 

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