MAY 13//GOLD UP $9.65 TO $1712.65//SILVER UP 2 CENTS TO $15.50//GOLD TONNAGE AT THE COMEX INCREASES TO 26.26 TONNES/ HUGE ADVANCE OF 11.07 PAPER TONNES INTO THE GLD//A HUGE 2.79 MILLION OZ PAPER SILVER ADDED TO THE SLV////CORONAVIRUS UPDATES//POWELL STATES THAT NIRP IS NOT IN THE USA INTEREST FOR NOW//WAR OF WORDS WITH CHINA ESCALATE AS TO THE ORIGINS OF THE VIRUS// FEUD BETWEEN GERMANY AND THE EU ESCALATE ON THE LEGALITY OF QE//FLYNN UNMASKERS UNMASKED!!//IN A BIZARRE MOVE DEMOCRAT APPOINTED JUDGE SULLIVAN DELAYS THE FLYNN CASE ASKING FOR AMICAE COURTAE BRIEFS//MORE SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

cartoon showing uncle sam stuch in the middle between the left and right

special thanks to G for sending us this cartoon!

 

 

GOLD:1712.65  UP $9.65   The quote is London spot price

 

 

 

 

 

Silver:$15.50  UP 2 CENTS (London spot closing price)

 

Closing access prices:  London spot

 

 

i)Gold : $1716.65  LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

 

ii)SILVER:  $15.58//LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

CLOSING FUTURES PRICES:  KEY MONTHS

 

MAY COMEX GOLD:  XXX

 

JUNE GOLD:  $1717.00  CLOSE 1.30 PM//   SPREAD SPOT (LONDON) VS/FUTURE JUNE: $4.65.//PREMIUMS WENT UP AGAIN

 

CLOSING SILVER FUTURE MONTH

 

SILVER JUNE COMEX CLOSE;   $15.72…1:30 PM.//SPREAD SPOT/(LONDON) VS FUTURE JUNE:  22 CENTS  PER OZ//PREMIUMS UP AGAIN//HUGE DIFFERENCE

 

 

the gold market continues to be broken as future prices are much higher than spot prices.  The comex is desperate to fix things but they have no available gold.

If one is to buy gold and or gold coins, the price is around $2800. usa per oz

and silver; $31.00 per oz//

 

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN: YOU ARE NOW WITNESSING FIRST HAND THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN PAPER GOLD/SILVER AND THE REAL PHYSICAL STUFF!!

DO NOT PAY ANY ATTENTION TO WHAT THE CROOKS ARE DOING AT THE COMEX AND LONDON LBMA..PHYSICAL IS THE NAME OF THE GAME AND NOTHING ELSE

 

COMEX DATA

 

 

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING:  99/281

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: MAY 2020 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,704.400000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 05/12/2020 DELIVERY DATE: 05/14/2020
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
072 C GOLDMAN 3
118 H MACQUARIE FUT 37
132 C SG AMERICAS 6
152 C DORMAN TRADING 25
323 H HSBC 6
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 4 5
657 H MORGAN STANLEY 138
661 C JP MORGAN 46 99
686 C INTL FCSTONE 13
690 C ABN AMRO 21 74
737 C ADVANTAGE 31 22
800 C MAREX SPEC 15 7
905 C ADM 1 9
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 281 281
MONTH TO DATE: 7,758

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  MAY CONTRACT: 281 NOTICE(S) FOR 28100 OZ (0.8740 tonnes)

 

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  7758 NOTICES FOR 775800 OZ  (24.13 TONNES)

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR MAY

 

 

132 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR  660,000  OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month: 8701 for 43,505,000 oz

 

BITCOIN MORNING QUOTE  $8947 UP  135 

 

BITCOIN AFTERNOON QUOTE.: $9293 UP 478

 

GLD AND SLV INVENTORIES:

WITH GOLD UP $9.05: AND NO PHYSICAL TO BE FOUND ANYWHERE:

WITH ALL REFINERS CLOSED//MEXICO ORDERING ALL MINES SHUT:   WHERE ARE THEY GETTING THE “PHYSICAL”?

 

A MONSTROUS “PAPER DEPOSIT” OF 11.07 TONES

 

GLD: 1,092.14 TONNES OF GOLD//

 

 

WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: AND WITH NO SILVER AROUND

 

A HUGE CHANGE  IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 3.076 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//

RESTING SLV INVENTORY TONIGHT:

SLV: 420.861  MILLION OZ./

 

 

 

 

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Let us have a look at the data for today

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

IN SILVER THE COMEX OI ROSE  BY A GOOD SIZED 930 CONTRACTS FROM 135,057 UP TO 135,987 AND CLOSER TO OUR NEW RECORD OF 244,710, (FEB 25/2020. THE HUGE SIZED LOSS IN OI OCCURRED WITH  OUR 5 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. IT SEEMS THAT THE GAIN IN COMEX OI IS DUE TO STRONG  BANKER SHORT COVERING PLUS A SMALL EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE, ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION, ACCOMPANYING  A TINY DECREASE IN SILVER OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR MAY. WE HAD A NET GAIN IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 1125 CONTRACTS  (SEE CALCULATIONS BELOW).

 

 

 

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A HUMONGOUS AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A SMALL SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE:   MARCH:  00 AND MAY: 0 AND JULY: 135  AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  135 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 135 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 135 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 0.675 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 5 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

7.32     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

2.630     MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOV.

20.970   MILLION OZ  FINAL STANDING IN DEC

5.075     MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JAN

1.480    MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN FEB

23.005  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAR

4.660  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR APRIL

45.400 MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING FOR MAY

 

TUESDAY, AGAIN OUR CROOKS USED COPIOUS PAPER IN ORDER TO LIQUIDATE SILVER’S PRICE…AND THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE 5 CENTS).. AND, OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS  WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE ANY AMOUNT OF SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR POSITIONS. THE GOOD GAIN AT THE COMEX WAS ACCOMPANIED BY : i)  A SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS 2) A TINY LOSS IN SILVER OZ STANDING FOR MAY,3) SOME BANKER SHORT COVERING  AND 4) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AS  WE DID HAVE A  NET GAIN OF 1065 CONTRACTS OR 5.325 MILLION OZ ON THE TWO EXCHANGES! YOU CAN BET THE FARM THAT OUR BANKER  ARE DESPERATE TO LIQUIDATE THEIR HUGE SHORT POSITIONS IN SILVER

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY /FOR MONTH OF MAY:

7562 CONTRACTS (FOR 9 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 7562 CONTRACTS) OR 37.81 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 928 CONTRACTS OR 4.641 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF MAY: 37.81 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 4.89% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

 

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2020 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          1,026.63 MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2020 EFP TOTALS SO FAR: 181.61 MILLION OZ

FEB 2020 EFP’S TOTAL :  ……     259.600 MILLION OZ

MARCH EFP’S …..                     452.280 MILLION OZ  //TOTALS//AND A NEW RECORD FOR THE MONTH)

APRIL EFP                               95.355 MILLION OZ.  (EX. FOR PHYSICALS BECOMING A LOT LESS)

MAY EFP SO FAR:                   37.81 MILLION OZ

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE FOR THE PAST 30 DAYS IS A LOT LESS.  NO DOUBT THAT THE COST TO CARRY THESE THINGS HAS EXPLODED AND AS SUCH CANNOT BE DONE AS FREQUENTLY AS BEFORE.

 

RESULT: WE HAD A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 930, WITH OUR 5 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ///TUESDAY THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A TINY SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 135 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER

 

TODAY WE GAINED A GOOD SIZED OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:  1065 CONTRACTS (WITH OUR 5 CENT GAIN IN PRICE)

 

THE TALLY//EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

i.e 135 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH A GOOD SIZED INCREASE OF 930 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 5 CENT GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER/ AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $15.48 // TUESDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY. 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 0.7050 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 100.7% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW  MAR DELIVERY MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 132 NOTICE(S) FOR  660,000 OZ OF SILVER.

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018. AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.70//TODAY’S RECORD OF 244,705 IS SET WITH A PRICE OF: 18.91 (FEB 25/2020)

 

.

 

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 10.025 MILLION OZ/ SEPT 43.030 MILLION OZ//OCT: 7.665 MILLION OZ//   NOV: 2.630 MILLION OZ//DEC:  20.970 MILLION OZ; JAN:  5.075 MILLION OZ.//FEB 1.480 MILLION OZ//MAR: 23.005 MILLION OZ/APRIL 4.660 MILLION OZ//MAY  45.400 MILLION OZ
  2. THE  RECORD PRIOR TO TODAY WAS SET IN FEB 25/2018:  244,710 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $18.90//.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

 

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 

GOLD

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A GOOD SIZED 1554 CONTRACTS TO 496,739 AND CLOSER TO OUR NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE GOOD SIZED GAIN OF COMEX OI OCCURRED WITH OUR CONSIDERABLE  COMEX GAIN IN PRICE  OF $6.60 /// COMEX GOLD TRADING// TUESDAY// WE  HAD SOME BANKER SHORT COVERING , A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN GOLD OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX, ALONG WITH ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION ACCOMPANYING A  GOOD  EX. FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. THIS ALL HAPPENED WITH OUR GAIN IN THE PAPER PRICE OF GOLD.

WE HAD A VOLUME OF 0  4 -GC CONTRACTS//OPEN INTEREST  7

 

WE GAINED A VERY GOOD SIZED 4723 CONTRACTS  (14.69 TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

 

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

 

 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 2110 CONTRACTS:

CONTRACTS, FEB>  CONTRACTS; MARCH 00 APRIL: 0. MAY: 0, AND JUNE 2969.; AUG 200 AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO//TOTAL: 3169.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 496,739. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A VERY GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 4723 CONTRACTS: 1554 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 3169 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 4723 CONTRACTS OR 14.369 TONNES. TUESDAY, WE HAD A GAIN OF $6.60 IN GOLD TRADING……

AND WITH THAT GAIN IN  PRICE, WE HAD A VERY GOOD SIZED GAIN IN  TOTAL/TWO EXCHANGES GOLD TONNAGE OF 14.69 TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS/OFFICIAL SECTOR WERE SUPPLYING INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER WITH RECKLESS ABANDON. THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE (IT ROSE $6.60). AND IT ALSO SEEMS THAT THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE ANY GOLD LONGS FROM THE GOLD ARENA WAS  UNSUCCESSFUL  (SEE BELOW).

4 GC VOLUME: 0  // open interest 7 

 

 

END

 

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:

WE HAD A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS  (3169) ACCOMPANYING THE GOOD SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI  (1554 OI): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES:  4723 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1 )SOME BANKER SHORT COVERING, 2.)A STRONG INCREASE IN OUNCES STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR THE FRONT MAY MONTH,  3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION; 4) GOOD COMEX OI GAIN,  AND  …ALL OF THIS WAS COUPLED WITH OUR GAIN IN GOLD PRICE TRADING//TUESDAY

 

SPREADING OPERATIONS

 

OUR SPREADING OPERATION HAS NOW SWITCHED INTO GOLD…..

SPREADING OPERATION FOR OUR NEWCOMERS:

WE HAVE NOW COMMENCED IN SILVER THE ILLEGAL SPREADING OPERATION \ FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS:

 

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW STOPPED IN SILVER AS THEY NOW BEGIN TO MORPH INTO GOLD AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW FRONT MONTH WILL BE JUNE.

 

 

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEW, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE SPREADERS AND THE CRIMINAL ELEMENT BEHIND IT:

 HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

 

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR SILVER..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR GOLD.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

 

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

.

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO GOLD AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX SILVER OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE FOR GOLD:

 

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF MAY. BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN GOLD WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JUNE), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

 

 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2020 INCLUDING TODAY

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF MAY : 27,549 CONTRACTS OR 2,754,900 oz OR 85.68 TONNES (9 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 3061 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

 

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 9 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 85.68 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2019, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 85.68/3550 x 100% TONNES =2.41% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD HAS DISSIPATED THIS MONTHTHE COST TO THE BANKERS TO CARRY THESE CONTRACTS IN LONDON IS BECOMING TOO GREAT FOR THEM.

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2020 TO DATE   2652.61  TONNES

JANUARY 2220 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE; : 570.19 TONNES

FEB 2020 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE :            653.78 TONNES

 

MARCH TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE                1,098.93  TONNES  (*AND A NEW ALL TIME RECORD ISSUANCE//22 DAYS)

APRIL TOTAL EFP. ISSUANCE:               243.45  TONNES  (EFP ISSUANCE BECOMING A LOT LESS)

MAY TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                     85.68 TONNES

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, ROSE BY A GOOD SIZED 930 CONTRACTS FROM 135,057 UP TO 135,987 AND FURTHER FROM OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 3/4 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

ALL OF THE GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS DUE TO 1) SOME BANKER SHORT COVERING , 2) A TINY ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (SEE BELOW), 3) A TINY DECREASE IN SILVER OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR MAY AND  4) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION 

 

EFP ISSUANCE 135 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 FOR FEB. 0; FOR MAR  0:  AND MAY: 0 JULY: 135 CONTRACTS   AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 135 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI GAIN  OF 990 CONTRACTS TO THE 135 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A  GOOD GAIN OF 1065 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 5.325 MILLION  OZ!!! OCCURRED WITH THE 5 CENT GAIN IN PRICE///

 

 

RESULT: A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE 5 CENT GAIN IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// TUESDAY. WE ALSO HAD A VERY TINY SIZED 135 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

 

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

(report Harvey)

 

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)WEDNESDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 6.49 POINTS OR 0.22%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 65.38 POINTS OR 0.27%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 99.43 POINTS OR 0.49%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .30%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 7.0924 /Oil UP TO 25.87 dollars per barrel for WTI and 30.13 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.0924 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.1039 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 1554 CONTRACTS TO 496,739 MOVING CLOSER TO  OUR  RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020).  AND THIS CONSIDERABLE COMEX OI GAIN WAS SET WITH OUR GAIN OF $6.60 IN GOLD PRICING /TUESDAY’S COMEX TRADING//). WE ALSO HAD A GOOD EFP ISSUANCE (3169 CONTRACTS),.  THUS WE HAD 1) SOME BANKER SHORT COVERING AT THE COMEX AND 2)   ZERO  LONG LIQUIDATION AND 3)  ANOTHER INCREASE IN GOLD OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX //  MAY/GOLD…  AS WE ENGINEERED A GOOD GAIN ON TWO EXCHANGES OF 4723 CONTRACTS.

WE AGAIN HAD 0    4 -GC VOLUME//open interest remains at 7

 

 

 

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A GOOD SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 3169 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

 FEB: 0; MARCH 00 AND APRIL: 0, MAY: 0  JUNE : 2969 AND 200 FOR AUG AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 3169 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:  5564 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 1554 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A FAIR SIZED 1554 COMEX CONTRACTS.  THE BANKERS PROVIDED ALL THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER TO WHICH OUR LONGS DUTIFULLY ACCEPTED AS THEY GOBBLED UP A GOOD AMOUNT OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WITH A SOME BANKER SHORT COVERING, ACCOMPANYING A SMALL DECREASE IN COMEX GOLD TONNAGE  // STANDING FOR DELIVERY (SEE CALCULATIONS BELOW)….AND ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION…… ALL OF THE ABOVE OCCURRED WITH A CONSIDERABLE RISE IN PRICE

 

THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT ROSE BY $6.60)AND, THEY WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING ANY LONGS, AS THE TOTAL GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES REGISTERED A CONSIDERABLE 14.69 TONNES.

 

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES :: 4723 CONTRACTS OR 472300 OZ OR 14.696 TONNES.

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT COMMODITY FUTURES OPEN INTEREST SHOULD APPROXIMATE 3% OF TOTAL PRODUCTION.  IN GOLD THE WORLD PRODUCES AROUND 3500 TONNES PER YEAR BUT ONLY 2200 TONNES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE WEST (THUS EXCLUDING RUSSIA, CHINA ETC..WHO KEEP 100% OF THEIR PRODUCTION)

THUS IN GOLD WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:  496,739 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS X 100 OZ PER CONTRACT = 49.67 MILLION OZ/32,150 OZ PER TONNE =  1544 TONNES

THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST REPRESENTS 1544/2200 OR 70.18% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF GOLD.

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 240,224 contracts//volume very low

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY280,938 contracts// volumes very low

MAY 13 /2020

MAY GOLD CONTRACT MONTH

 

 

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
nil oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz 1466.795 oz

MANFRA

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

15,851.15

OZ

HSBC

(ENHANCED INVENTORY)

 

 

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
281 notice(s)
 28100 OZ
(0.8740 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
716 contracts
(71600 oz)
2.22 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
7758 notices
775800 OZ
24.13 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

We had 1 deposits into the dealer

 

 

i) Into Manfra:  1466.795 oz

total dealer deposits: 1466.795   oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had 1 deposit into the customer account

i) Into  HSBC ENHANCED:  15,851.15 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total deposits: 15,851.15   oz

 

 

we had 1 gold withdrawals from the customer account:

i) Out of Brinks:  1511.097 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total gold withdrawals; 1511.097   oz

We had 0  kilobar transactions  +

 

We had 0  4 KC bar volume transactions/7 contracts oi

 

 

 

 

ADJUSTMENTS: 1    

 

 

 dealer to customer

ii) Out of Brinks: 5000.500 oz

 

 

 

 

 

The front month of May registered a LARGE total of 997 oi contracts for a loss of 971 contracts. We had 1196 notices filed upon yesterday so we GAINED 225 contracts or an additional 22,500 oz will stand as these guys REFUSED TO morph into London based forwards and thus negated a fiat bonus

The next delivery month after May is the huge delivery month of June.  Here June saw a  loss OF 11,099 contracts DOWN to 259,239 contracts. July had a loss of 260 OI contracts  and thus 261 contracts  outstanding.  Next comes August another strong delivery month and here the OI ROSE by 12,146 contracts up to 141,571 contracts.

 

 

We had 281 notices filed today for 28,100 oz

 

FOR THE  MAY 2020 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 46 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 281 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 99 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the MAY /2020. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (7758) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  May. (997 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today (281 x 100 oz per contract) equals 847,400 OZ OR 26.35 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this  non active month of May

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the May/2020 contract month:

No of notices served (7758)x 100 oz + 997 OI) for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (281) x 100 oz which equals 847,400 oz standing OR 26.35 TONNES in this non active delivery month. This is  a record amount for gold standing for any May delivery month or any non active delivery month.

We gained 225 contracts or an additional 22,500 oz will  seek out metal on this side of the pond as they refused to  morph into London based forwards.

 

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:  BRINKS

3027.500 OZ  REMOVED TO THE PLEDGED ACCOUNT JAN 10.2020/Brinks

144,088.952 oz NOW PLEDGED  JAN 21.2020/HSBC  5.4807 TONNES

322,144.443 oz PLEDGED  MARCH 2020  JPMORGAN:  10.020 TONNES

42,548.308.00 PLEDGED  APRIL 3/2020: SCOTIA:            1.3234 tonnes

19,290.600 oz Pledged May 8/2020   INT DELAWARE:  .600 TONNES

17,853.197  oz pledged May 8.2020   MANFRA:            .553 TONNES

 

TOTAL PLEDGED GOLD NOW IN EFFECT:  545,925.500  OZ OR 16.980  TONNES

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES…. WE HAVE 196.42 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS ie. 26.35 tonnes

CALCULATION OF REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SETTLED UPON:

total registered or dealer  6,860,801.018 oz or 213.399  tonnes
which  includes the following:
a) pledged gold held at HSBC   which cannot settled upon   144,088.952 oz x ( 4.4817 TONNES)//
b) pledged gold held at JPMorgan (added March 2020) which cannot be settled upon:  322,144.443 oz (or 10.0200 tonnes)
total pledged gold:
c)  pledged gold at Scotia: 1.3234 tonnes or 42,548.308 oz which cannot be settled  (1.3234 tonnes)
d) pledged gold at Manfra:  17,853.197 oz  which cannot be settled:   (.5553 tonnes)
e) pledged gold at int.Del.    19,290.600 oz  which cannot be settled:   (.600 tonnes)
total weight of pledged:  545,925.500 oz or 16.905 tonnes
thus:
registered gold that can be used to settle upon: 6,314875.5  (196.42 tonnes)
true registered gold  (total registered – pledged tonnes  6,314875.5 (196.42 tonnes)
total eligible gold:  16,084,909.025 oz (500.308 tonnes)

total registered, pledged  and eligible (customer) gold;   22,945,710.043 oz 713.70 tonnes (INCLUDES 4 GC GOLD)

total 4 GC gold:   128.632 tonnes

total gold net of 4 GC:  585.07 tonnes

 

end

 

I have compiled  data with respect to registered (or dealer) gold taken on first day notice for each of the past 24 months

The data begins on first day notice for the May month taken on the last day of April 2018. and it continues to present day.  Thus 24 data entry points.

 

I then took, how many deliveries were recorded by the CME for each and every month.  I also included for reference the price of gold on first day notice.

 

The first graph is a logarithmic  graph and the second graph, linear.

You can see the huge explosion of registered gold at the comex along with deliveries.  Gold owners are very clear people.  They would know full well that

the gold at the comex is unallocated and that they would not be stupid enough to keep their gold at the comex especially in the registered category once deliveries are asked upon. If physical gold was present it would be have removed from the comex… It shows there is no gold at the comex.  They are just trading in sticky paper.

 

 

THE GOLD COMEX SEEMS TO BE  UNDER SEVERE ASSAULT FOR PHYSICAL

 

END

MAY 13/2020

And now for the wild silver comex results

Total COMEX silver OI ROSE BY A GOOD SIZED 930 CONTRACTS FROM 135,057 UP TO 135,987(AND FURTHER FROM OUR NEW ALL TIME RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON FEB 25.2020(244,710) ECLIPSING OUR PREVIOUS RECORD, AUGUST 25/2018 RECORD (244,196).  THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) . THE GOOD OI COMEX GAIN TODAY OCCURRED WITH OUR 5 CENT GAIN IN PRICING//TUESDAY. WE GAINED A TOTAL OF 1125 CONTRACTS IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES.  THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI (TWO EXCHANGES) OCCURRED WITH 1)  A SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS 2) A TINY DECREASE IN SILVER OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX, 3)  SOME BANKER SHORT COVERING , 4) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION,5) GOOD COMEX GAIN IN OI AND ALL OF THIS OCCURRED WITH OUR SMALL 5 CENT GAIN IN PRICE 

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY

THE FRONT DELIVERY OF MAY SAW  511 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS STANDING  AND THUS WE HAD A LOSS OF 2 CONTRACTS.  We had 0 notices filed yesterday so we LOST 2 contracts or an additional 10,000 oz will NOT stand at the comex as these guys  morphed into London based forwards and thus they accepted  a fiat bonus for their efforts.. It looks like there is no silver over here and thus they must travel to London to get the stuff.

 

AFTER MAY WE HAVE THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF JUNE.  HERE JUNE SAW A GAIN OF 3 CONTRACTS RESTING AT 466.

AFTER JUNE COMES THE VERY BIG DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY AND HERE THE OI GAINED 560 CONTRACTS UP TO 103,209 CONTRACTS

 

 

We, today, had  132 notice(s) FILED  for 660,000 OZ for the APRIL, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

MAY 13/2020

MAY SILVER COMEX CONTRACT MONTH

 

Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 606,799.531 oz
CNT
DELAWARE

BRINKS

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
nil
No of oz served today (contracts)
132
CONTRACT(S)
(660,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
379 contracts
 1,895,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  8701 contracts

43,505,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

 

i) We had 0 deposit into the dealer:

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

i)we had 0 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:   0

ii)into everybody else: 0

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017, 2018 and onward, has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 160.819 million oz of  total silver inventory or 51.22% of all official comex silver. (160.819 million/313.893 million

 

total customer deposits today: nil    oz

we had 3 withdrawals:

i) Out of Brinks: 4969.360  oz

ii) Out of CNT:  600,829.871 oz

iii) Out of Delaware: 1000.300

 

total withdrawals; 606,799.531     oz

We had 2 adjustments  dealer to customer

Out of CNT:  634,596.02

 

out of Delaware: 10,058.244

 

total dealer silver: 90.608 million

total dealer + customer silver:  314.376 million oz

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

The total number of notices filed today for the MAY 2020. contract month is represented by 132 contract(s) FOR 660,000 oz

 

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in MAY we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 8701 x 5,000 oz = 43,505,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY.(511) and the number of notices served upon today 132 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the MAY/2019 contract month: 8701 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of MAY (511)- number of notices served upon today (132) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the MAY contract month.equals 45,400,000 oz.

We LOST 2 or an additional 10,000 oz will seek out metal on the London side of the pond as they ACCEPTED a London based forward contract..

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME: 44,555 CONTRACTS //volume very low

 

 

FOR YESTERDAY: 41,347 CONTRACTS..,CONFIRMED VOLUME//extremely low volume

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 41,347  CONTRACTS EQUATES to 206 million  OZ 24.5% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

 

NPV for Sprott

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV  FALLS TO- 0.67% ((MAY 13/2020)

2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV  FALLS TO +0.25% to NAV:   (MAY 13/2020 )

Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ 0.67%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 15.78 TRADING 15.66///NEGATIVE 0.73

END

 

 

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

MAY 13//WITH GOLD UP $9.05 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A DEPOSIT OF 11.07 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1092.14 TONNES

MAY 12//WITH GOLD UP $6.60 TODAY; A SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A WITHDRAWAL OF .58 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1081.07 TONNES

MAY 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.65 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY: //INVENTORY RESTS AT 1081.65 TONES..

MAY 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.00 TODAY; A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: A PAPER ADDITION OF 5.85 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1081.65 TONNES

MAY 7/WITH GOLD UP $29.65 TODAY : A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A PAPER ADDITION OF .41 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1075.80 TONNES

MAY 6//WITH GOLD DOWN $17.00 TODAY/ A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A PAPER ADDITION OF 3.68 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1075.39 TONES

MAY 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.65 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER ADDITION OF 3.81 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1071.71 TONNES

MAY 4//WITH GOLD UP $12.00 TODAY//A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE PAPER DEPOSIT OF 11.4 TONNES INTO THE GLD////GOLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 1067.90 TONNES

MAY 1/WITH GOLD UP $8.45 NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1056.50 TONNES

APRIL 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $15.95 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1056.50 TONNES

APRIL 29/WITH  GOLD DOWN $7.65/A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 8.19 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY REST AT 1056.50 TONNES//

APRIL 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.50//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1048.31 TONNES

APRIL 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.75//A HUGE  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 5.85 TONNES INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 1048.31 TONNES

APRIL 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.90 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 1042.46 TONNES

APRIL 23/WITH GOLD UP $10.00 TODAY:  NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 1042.46 TONNES

APRIL 22/WITH GOLD UP $40.75 TODAY:; TWO HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A)A MONSTROUS  3.8 PAPER TONNES WERE ADDED TO THE GLD INVENTORY AND B) ANOTHER HUGE 9.07 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD ADDED LATE IN THE DAY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1042.46 TONNES

APRIL 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $21.60 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MONSTROUS ADDITION OF 7.9 PAPER TONNES TO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1029.59 TONNES

APRIL 20//WITH GOLD UP $10.00 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1021.69 TONNES

APRIL 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $27.80 TODAY: SURPRISINGLY NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1021.69 TONNES TONNES..THE STRING OF 12 STRAIGHT STRONG DEPOSITS ENDS..

APRIL 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.50 TODAY: ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: A STRONG DEPOSIT OF 4.10 TONNES WAS ADDED TO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1021.69 TONNES/12TH STRAIGHT STRONG DEPOSIT

APRIL 15//WITH GOLD DOWN $19.10 TODAY; ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY; A STRONG 7.89 TONNES WAS ADDED TO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1117.59 TONNES.//11TH STRAIGHT STRONG DEPOSIT

APRIL 14/WITH GOLD UP $23.55 TODAY: ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: A STRONG 15.51 TONNES WAS ADDED TO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1009.70 TONNES//THIS IS THE 10TH STRAIGHT STRONG DEPOSIT//THIS IS A FRAUDULENT VEHICLE..THEY HAVE NO PHYSICAL GOLD IN THE TRUST..

APRIL 13//WITH GOLD UP $27.65 TODAY: ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: A STRONG 5.36 TONNES WAS ADDED TO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 994.19 TONNES

APRIL 9 WITH GOLD UP $37.30 TODAY: ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: A STRONG 2.92 TONNES WAS ADDED TO THE GLD//GOLD INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT..988.63 TONNES

APRIL 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $.60//ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY/;; A STRONG 1.45 TONNES WAS ADDED TO THE GLD/GOLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 985.71 TONNES

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Inventory rests tonight at

MAY 13/ GLD INVENTORY 1092.14 tonnes*

LAST;  819 TRADING DAYS:   +145.84 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD

 

LAST 719 TRADING DAYS://+320.98  TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

 

end

 

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

MAY 13/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.79 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 423.65 MILLION OZ//


MAY 12/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.076 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 420.861 MILLION OZ//

MAY 11.WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 417.785 MILLION OZ//

MAY 8/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A MONSTER DEPOSIT OF 4.661 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV..///INVENTORY RESTS AT 417.785 MILLION OZ//

MAY 7/WITH SILVER UP 45 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 413.124 MILLION OZ//

MAY 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 413.124 MILLION OZ//

MAY 5/WITH SILVER UP 17 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 413.124 MILLION OZ///

MAY 4//WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY:2 HUGE PAPER CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.i).A  LARGE 1.399 MILLION OZ OF PAPER SILVER REMOVED FROM THE SLV//..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 411.427 MILLION OZ and ii) A LARGE 1.647 MILLION OZ OF PAPER SILVER ADDED TO THE SLV//  INVENTORY RESTS AT 413.124 MILLION OZ//


MAY 1/WITH SILVER FLAT IN PRICE: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 412.826 MILLION OZ///

APRIL 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 26 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 412.826 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 29/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 412.826 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 28 /WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 412.826 MILLION OZ..

APRIL 27/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT TODAY: TWO SMALL  CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: a) A WITHDRAWAL OF 373,000 OZ FORM THE SLV// b) A SECOND WITHDRAWAL OF 466,000: ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 412.826 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 24//WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 413.665 MILLION OZ

APRIL 23/WITH SILVER UP 0 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.891 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 413.665 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 22/WITH SILVER UP 42 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.865 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 410.774 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 21//WITH SILVER DOWN 60 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER ADDITION OF 1.398 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 412.639 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 20//WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.797 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 414.038 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS TODAY; A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.3999 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 415.437 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 16/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 415.437 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 15//WITH SILVER DOWN 45 CENTS TODAY: TWO HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV TWO HUGE DEPOSITS: A DEPOSIT OF 1.679 MILLION OZ AND ANOTHER 5.222 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 415.437 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 14./WITH SILVER UP 51 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A MASSIVE PAPER DEPOSIT OF XXX MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 408.536 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 13//WITH SILVER DOWN 29 CENTS TODAY;  A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A MASSIVE PAPER DEPOSIT OF 6.155 MILLION OZ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 408.536 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 9/WITH SILVER UP 60 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.84 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 402.381 MILLION OZ.

 

 

MAY 13.2020:

SLV INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT

423.65 MILLION OZ.

END

 

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES//  GOLD LEASE RATES

 

 

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.64/ and libor 6 month duration 0.66

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: -1.98%

NEGATIVE GOLD LEASING RATES//GOLD SCARCITY AND CENTRAL BANKS CALLING IN ALL OF THEIR GOLD LEASES

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 1.971%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 0.77

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = -1.20

NEGATIVE GOLD LEASING RATES//GOLD SCARCITY AND CENTRAL BANKS CALLING IN ALL OF THEIR GOLD LEASES

 

end

 

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

 

 

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

Investors are now beginning to embrace the once taboo subject of negative interest rates

(Reuters//GATA)

Once taboo, investors begin to imagine negative U.S. rates

 Section: 

By Saqib Iqbal Ahmed and Tom Westbrook
Reuters
Tuesday, May 12

Negative interest rates in the United States were once unimaginable. The coronavirus has changed that.

While the Federal Reserve has all but ruled it out, the sweeping economic and financial-markets impact of the pandemic has forced investors to give serious thought to the implications of such a drastic policy shift.

… 

Rate options, which gauge monetary policy expectations, on Monday implied a 23% probability that the key federal funds rate will go below zero by the end of December, according to BofA Securities data, which cited short expiry options on one-year U.S. swap rates. That compares with a 9-10% probability last week.

Fed funds futures are pricing in rates of about one basis point below zero by June 2021 as the pandemic hammers the U.S. economy toward its steepest downturn since the Great Depression.

“It’s gone from theoretical to distinctly possible,” said Michael Purves, chief executive of Tallbacken Capital Advisors. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-fed-rates-investors-analysis/once…

* * *

end

Dave Kranzler reports that the Fed Reserve will now start buying corporate bond ETF’s.  They will use Blackrock to front this purchases.  This will no doubt create problems down the road.

Dave Kranzler/IRD/GATA)

Dave Kranzler: A hopelessly corrupt financial system plus historic bubbles — Got gold?

 Section: 

By Dave Kranzler
Investment Research Dynamics, Denver
Tuesday, May 12, 2020

The Federal Reserve has re-inflated the biggest stock and asset bubble in history after the previously biggest stock bubble was punctured in March.

Today the Fed will begin buying junk bond/leveraged loan exchange-traded funds using Blackrock as its front. There are two obvious problems with this.

… 

First, how does this help the economy? The money printed and used to purchase the ETF securities will never flow to the companies issuing junk bonds. Ask United Airlines, which had to abandon plans to raise a couple billion in the junk bond market after the market rejected its attempt to issue 11% coupon bonds.

Why didn’t the Fed just buy up that issue? It’s an odd lot compared to what the Fed has printed and thrown at the big banks up to this point.

The second problem is Fed Chairman Jay Powell’s conflict of interest. Powell has an $11 million equity stake in Blackrock. For its riskless efforts in buying ETFs for the Fed, Blackrock will be paid $15 million.

And guess what — The taxpayers are on the hook for the money the Fed prints and transfers to ETFs and to Blackrock when the trade goes bad, which it will. …

… For the remainder of the commentary:

https://investmentresearchdynamics.com/a-hopelessly-corrupt-financial-sy…

* * *

end

Craig Hemke explains brilliantly by the crooked Scotiabank is leaving the precious metals arena

(Craig Hemke/GATA)

Craig Hemke at Sprott Money: Scotiabank jumps ship

 Section: 

8:55p ET Tuesday, May 12, 2020

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Why is the oldest bullion bank, the Bank of Nova Scotia, getting out of the bullion business?

Writing at Sprott Money tonight, the TF Metals Report’s Craig Hemke offers some possibilities, foremost among them that bullion banking is about to be destroyed as its “con game of mismatched leases, warrants, and promissory notes” is exposed by overwhelming physical demand.

Hemke’s analysis is headlined “Scotiabank Jumps Ship” and it’s posted at Sprott Money here:

https://www.sprottmoney.com/Blog/scotiabank-jumps-ship-craig-hemke-may-1…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

Nick Barisheff explains why you must only own physical metal

(Nick Barisheff//GATA)

Nick Barisheff: ETFs are just the illusion of owning gold

 Section: 

9:22p ET Tuesday, May 12, 2020

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Exchange-traded funds are emphatically not the way to own the monetary metals, BMG Group founder Nick Barisheff writes in his latest market letter. Rather, Barisheff explains, ETFs supply only “the illusion of owning gold.”

Barisheff writes: “What good is it to save money on the storage costs if you don’t have legal title to the gold? Many gold transactions, such as futures contracts, certificates, and ETFs, are nothing more than paper proxies or derivatives of gold. They do not represent legal ownership of gold.

… 

“These proxies may work as planned during normal market conditions but may fail under stress, when investors need the safe haven of bullion the most. I have always said that if you aren’t paying reasonable insured storage fees for allocated bullion, then in all likelihood you don’t own any gold at all. …

“ETFs have significant counterparty risk on many levels.”

Barisheff notes that the custodians of the metal purportedly held by the exchange-traded funds GLD and SLV — HSBC and JPMorganChase, respectively — have been fined repeatedly for misconduct and have serious lawsuits pending against them. That is, those bullion banks do not share the investment goals of most GLD and SLV investors, who buy the monetary metals in the hope of price appreciation. Rather, those banks long have been trying to keep metals prices down.

Barisheff’s analysis is headlined “The Illusion of Owning Gold” and it’s posted at BMG Group’s internet site here:

https://bmg-group.com/illusion-of-owning-gold/

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

iii) Other physical stories:

When the Exchange for physicals blew up in late March, HSBC lost 200 million on that one day.

(Market Watch)

HSBC lost nearly $200 million in a single day amid gold-market turbulence

Ben Winck

May. 13, 2020, 02:48 PM

*HSBC lost nearly $200 million on one late-March day when gold prices in different trading hotspots sharply diverged, according to a Monday regulatory filing.

*When the coronavirus pandemic slowed global travel, gold’s supply chain faced significant disruptions.

*Different markets that typically boast similar spot prices for the precious metal saw their price gaps swell to historic highs, Bloomberg first reported.

*HSBC attributed the massive loss to “unprecedented widening of the gold exchange-for-physical basis, reflecting COVID-19-related challenges in gold refining and transportation.”

HSBC’s mark-to-market losses soared to nearly $200 million on a single day in March when gold prices in different markets sharply diverged, a Monday regulatory filing revealed.

The one-day loss surged past the firm’s value-at-risk calculations and further highlighted the commodity market turmoil seen at the end of March. When the coronavirus pandemic tanked global travel activity, gold’s supply chain ground to a halt. Trading hotspots that previously touted largely similar spot prices saw their price gap dramatically widen as the metal’s supply in different locales seized up.

Bloomberg first reported on the bank’s one-day loss.

HSBC attributed the larger-than-usual loss to “unprecedented widening of the gold exchange-for-physical basis, reflecting COVID-19-related challenges in gold refining and transportation.” Losses posted at the end of March were sourced from valuation adjustments, the firm added.

Spot-price gaps around the world have since closed after the March flare-up. Gold itself has posted a sharp recovery from its mid-March lows, rallying above $1,700 in April as coronavirus fears gave way to fresh risk-on behavior.

Gold traded for $1,710.69 as of 8:25 a.m. ET Wednesday, up 12% year-to-date.

end

Danielle DiMartino Booth

 

@DiMartinoBooth

 

Brazilian port workers starting to fall ill as coronavirus pandemic reaches one of LATAM’s busiest shipping hubs. At least 3 privately-run terminals that handle soybeans, corn, sugar & coffee at Brazil’s Santos port have registered COVID-19 cases at busiest time of year

end

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early WEDNESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 7.0924/ GETTING VERY DANGEROUSLY PAST 7:1

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  7.1039   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 6.49 POINTS OR 0.22%

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 65.38 POINTS OR 0.27%

 

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 99.43 POINTS OR 0.49%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL RED/

 

 

 

USA dollar index UP TO 97.24/Euro RISES TO 1.0869

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. –.00/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 106.96/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 25.87 and Brent: 30.13

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE DOWN/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO -.53%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 1.83% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.74%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 2.36: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 2.09

3k Gold at $1708.15 silver at: 15/55   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 39/100 in roubles/dollar) 73.24

3m oil into the 25 dollar handle for WTI and 30 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 106.96 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9676 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0524 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to 0.53%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 0.67% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 1.36%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 6.6846..

Futures Stage Another Overnight Rebound As Dollar Tumbles Ahead Of Powell NIRP Speech

 

The pajama-traders were active again overnight, ramping US equity futures to overnight highs of 2,870 some 45 points above the late Tuesday lows when fresh fears about new China sanctions accelerated yesterday’s selloff.

The rebound was facilitated by another sharp overnight dollar selloff…

… as traders looked to today’s address by Fed Chair Powell, who speaks on current economic issues at 9am ET, and whose remarks will be scrutinized amid rising bets that the United States might adopt negative interest rates for the first time to combat the coronavirus pandemic’s severe economic blow. The Fed chair’s speech comes  after President Donald Trump said earlier this week the U.S. should receive the “gift” of negative interest rates.

Powell’s speech via webinar hosted by the Peterson Institute for International Economics includes text release with a moderated Q&A session to follow and it appears that, at least superficially, algos hope that Powell will hint that NIRP is a possibility.

US futures followed Asian markets higher, while European equity indexes dropped with CAC 40 underperforming peers, down 1.9%. Indexes trade off the lows with FTSE 100 finding support at Monday’s lows near 5,900 after the UK reported the worst GDP in history. Travel, autos and financial services post the largest declines, with all sub-sectors in the red. U.S. equity futures pare overnight losses to trade either side of unchanged.  The Stoxx 600 Banks Index falls 2.3% in early trading and is among the worst-performing industry groups amid broader market weakness. ABN Amro and Commerzbank are the final two major European banks reporting for the first quarter and join peers in raising loan-loss provisions. The Dutch bank was the worst-performing lender in the SX7P, down 7% after posting its first loss since 2013, which was worse than expected by analysts. Commerzbank’s earnings also prompted a negative reaction after the lender increased provisions and lowered the full-year target for its CET1 ratio to 12.5%; shares drop 3.5%.

The world’s largest container line, A.P. Moller-Maersk A/S, said the fallout from Covid-19 will drive volumes down by as much as 25% this quarter. European tech shares pared declines, however, after China’s Tencent Holdings Ltd. said first-quarter sales beat estimates.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks gained, led by health care and IT, after falling in the last session. Markets in the region were mixed, with Jakarta Composite and Singapore’s Straits Times Index falling, and India’s S&P BSE Sensex Index and South Korea’s Kospi Index rising. The Topix declined 0.1%, with JBCC and Modec falling the most. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.2%, with Xinjiang Winka Times Department Store and Anji Foodstuff posting the biggest advances

Equity investors are debating whether the rally from March lows went too far, with BofA quants confirming the market bounce is just another bear market rally

… while veteran investor Stan Druckenmiller said the risk-reward calculation for stocks is the worst he’s seen in his career. Data on the virus’s spread is being weighed against the constant news flow of attempts to kick-start industries, coupled with rising reports of second round infections. Overnight, Tesla was allowed to begin preparing for reopeing its only U.S. car plant as soon as next week. Germany will reopen its borders on June 15.

“Market sentiment remains highly susceptible to headline risk and we will continue to be buffeted by the coronavirus numbers over the coming weeks,” said First Abu Dhabi Bank chief economist Simon Ballard. “At the core of investor concerns is the lack of conviction in a self-sustaining global economic recovery.”

In rates, Treasuries are steady with the long-end outperforming despite biggest-ever 30-year bond auction during US afternoon; however Tuesday’s record-size 10-year note sale drew strong demand. Long-end yields are richer by ~2bp on the session with rest of the curve little changed, flattening 5s30s; new 10-year note, which drew 0.700% in Tuesday’s auction, trades around 0.66%. Ahead of the $22 billion auction at 1pm ET, WI 30-year yield is ~1.36%, 3.5bp cheaper than April’s 30-year stop (0.5bp below the WI yield at the bidding deadline); Monday’s 3-year sale also stopped through with solid bidding metrics.

In Europe, yield curves bull flattened with 10y Gilts outperforming Bunds by 1bp; U.K. bonds rallied to send yields on two-year securities to a record low of -0.04%, after data showed the economy shrank into what could be its deepest recession in more than three centuries. Peripheral spreads trade off session wides, BTPs lag ahead of debt sales.

In FX, as noted above, the dollar index slumped after early gains, ahead of a speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, which traders will scrutinize for clues on future monetary policy. The Fed chair’s speech comes after after President Donald Trump said earlier this week the U.S. should receive the “gift” of negative interest rates. “We doubt the Fed will ultimately go in the direction of negative rates but speculation on that could certainly intensify, which is key for the dollar,” said Derek Halpenny, the head of global market research at MUFG. The New Zealand dollar plunged by more than 1% against the greenback and money-market pricing for 2021 shifted to factor in a negative cash rate after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand said rates below zero “will become an option in future.” It increased its bond- purchase program to NZ$60 billion ($36 billion) from NZ$33 billion.

Most emerging-market currencies weakened against the dollar as cautionary remarks from health authorities about the premature reopening of economies and renewed tensions between China and the U.S. weighed on risk appetite. The premium investors demand to hold developing-nation debt over U.S. Treasuries widened, while MSCI’s measure of emerging currencies inched lower, led by eastern Europe. The lira steadied after its longest winning streak since October, after Turkey’s current-account deficit widened to the most in 22 months. Indian stocks climbed more than 2% after Prime Minister Narendra Modi said his government will spend a total of 20 trillion rupees ($265 billion) to help the economy.

Friction is increasing between the Trump administration and Beijing after the U.S. moved earlier in the week to block investments in Chinese stocks by a government retirement savings fund. Developing-nation investors are concerned Trump’s criticism of China over the spread of the coronavirus could lead to a resumption of the trade war, which stopped the emerging-market rally in its tracks in 2018.

All the recent tensions are a reminder that the pre Covid environment was not so rosy too,” said Guillaume Tresca, a strategist at Credit Agricole SA. “Questions on global trade were acute and the trade war between the U.S. and China was well alive. If you have the trade tensions on top of a weak global EM environment, the recovery will be slow, at minimum.”

In commodities, WTI and Brent front month-futures extended on losses from the APAC session as sentiment across the market remains on the backfoot. Prices waned off OPEC sources highs potentially on worries surrounding US-Sino relations, but participants note that concerns over hitting storage capacity have eased as demand gradually recovers, whilst supply cuts also provides a less bearish outlook vs. March. Yesterday’s API printed a larger-than-expected build of 7.6mln barrels vs. Exp. 4.1mln, but Cushing saw a draw of 2.216mln barrels – traders will be eyeing today’s DoEs for confirmation. Looking at the WTI forward curve, a chunk of open interest resides in the December 20 contract – reflecting funds’ moves from front-month to further down the line

Looking at the day ahead, the highlight will probably be the aforementioned speech from Fed Chair Powell, while we’ll also hear from the ECB’s Vice President de Guindos and their Chief Economist Lane. In terms of data releases, we have April’s PPI and weekly MBA mortgage applications.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures little changed at 2,855.00
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 1.3% to 336.05
  • MXAP up 0.2% to 146.91
  • MXAPJ up 0.3% to 472.43
  • Nikkei down 0.5% to 20,267.05
  • Topix down 0.1% to 1,474.69
  • Hang Seng Index down 0.3% to 24,180.30
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.2% to 2,898.05
  • Sensex up 2.5% to 32,139.07
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.4% to 5,421.85
  • Kospi up 1% to 1,940.42
  • Brent futures down 2.2% to $29.31/bbl
  • Gold spot little changed at $1,702.08
  • U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 99.99
  • German 10Y yield fell 2.5 bps to -0.53%
  • Euro down 0.06% to $1.0842
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 1.1 bps to 1.715%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 0.3 bps to 0.791%

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • The judge who drafted the ruling by Germany’s constitutional court on the ECB’s QE program tells German newspaper Sueddeutsche Zeitung that the central bank “shouldn’t see itself as the ‘Master of the Universe.’ An institution like the ECB, which is only thinly legitimized democratically, is only acceptable if it strictly adheres to the responsibilities assigned to it”
  • China reported seven new coronavirus cases Tuesday. Brazil recorded another record day in daily deaths. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s spokesman is the latest top official to fall ill
  • Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester says that there was a consensus at the central bank prior to the coronavirus crisis that negative interest rates would not work well in the U.S. and “I still am not thinking that would be a go-to tool for me.”
  • House Democrats proposed a $3 trillion virus relief bill Tuesday, combining aid to state and local governments with direct cash payments, expanded unemployment insurance and food stamp spending as well as a list of progressive priorities like funds for voting by mail and the troubled U.S. Postal Service
  • U.K. retail sales dropped in April by the most in at least a quarter of a century, according to industry figures that outline the impact of the shutdown on stores
  • A day after Donald Trump said “we’ve prevailed” in expanding testing enough to start reopening the U.S. economy, the president’s top health experts offered a more cautionary assessment as they warned about the perils of moving too quickly
  • Oil retreated from a five-week high on concern that relaxing virus lockdowns too early will lead to a resurgence in cases and derail a nascent recovery in energy demand.
  • Borrowing dollars in currency markets, against euros or the yen, is at its cheapest in five years. This has driven up the hedged Treasury yield available to foreign investors, which could prove supportive in Wednesday’s record 30-year bond sale
  • The Paris Club is confident China will take part in a global drive to pause debt payments for poor countries that urgently need funds to battle the coronavirus pandemic
  • Australia sold A$19 billion ($12.3 billion) in new 10- year sovereign bonds, a second record-breaking sale in as many months, underscoring appetite for debt in one of the highest- yielding markets left among Group-of-10 nations

Asian equity markets were mostly negative following the late slump on Wall St. and with sentiment soured by fears of a 2nd coronavirus wave, as well as efforts in the US Senate to impose sanctions on China. ASX 200 +0.4%) and Nikkei 225 (-0.5%) were lower as the Australian benchmark suffered from the withered ties with China and amid initial losses in financials after the largest bank CBA reported a drop in cash profit and spike in loan impairment expenses, while sentiment in Tokyo was pressured by a firmer currency and with a slew of earnings releases dominating newsflow. Hang Seng (-0.3%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.2%) were both lacklustre as US-China concerns were stoked by reports of several measures in the US Senate against China including proposed legislation by Republican Senators that would empower President Trump to impose sanctions on China if it does not provide a “full accounting” for the coronavirus outbreak and with the Senate is also planning to move on legislation that would impose sanctions on Chinese officials over human rights abuses against Uighur Muslims. India markets bucked the trend with the Sensex (+2.0%) and Nifty (+2.0%) both surging at the open after PM Modi’s recent announcement of a special economic support package totalling INR 20tln, but with some of the gains pared amid the broad cautious tone in the region. Finally, 10yr JGBs were flat with the gains in T-notes, weakness in stocks and the BoJ presence in the market for JPY 810bln of JGBs all failing to spur prices.

Top Asian News

  • China’s Disinformation Campaign Targets Virus, Researcher Says
  • Sony Warns Profit May Fall 30% or More in Fiscal Year
  • Investors Flock to Indonesia Dollar Bonds with Record Sales
  • NMC Administrators Start Dismantling Top Mideast Hospital Owner

European equities see losses across the region [Euro Stoxx 50 -1.3%] after a mixed APAC trade failed to induce upside in Europe. That being said, US equity futures eke mild gains early doors. Sentiment is weighed on over signs of a resurgence in COVID-19 cases across some economies opening “too early” – which could potentially prolong the reopening of those that are planning to in the immediate future. Further, worries over how the US-China trade situations will pan out also provides uncertainty to investors. Broad-based losses are seen across Europe, Switzerland’s SMI (-0.8%) fares slightly better as inflows into defensive stocks cushion the Pharma-heavy index. Sectors all reside in the red with defensives performing better than cyclicals – reflecting risk aversion; Consumer Discretionary names underperform. The sector breakdown provides little colour. In terms of individual movers; Anglo American (-1.9%), Glencore (-3.5%) and RWE (-2.6%) are weighed on by reports Norway’s sovereign wealth fund has sold its stakes in the Cos amid a breach of guidelines regarding the use of coal. The fund owned 2.4% of Anglo American, 1.2% of Glencore and 0.6% of RWE. Meanwhile, BHP (+0.2%), Enel (-2%) and Uniper (-0.7%) have been put on watch for a potential similar breach. The pre-market saw earnings from ABN AMRO (-7.2%) and Commerzbank (-6.6%), in which both banks reported deeper net losses and higher impairment charges than forecast. A.P. Moller Maersk (-5.9%) holds onto post-earning losses despite topping revenue and EBITDA estimates, as the Co. noted that Q2 volumes across all businesses could fall 20-25%, affecting both profitability and cash flow. Finally, no reprieve for Wirecard (-6%) after law firm TILP filed a lawsuit stating that Wirecard is liable to pay damages to shareholders amid a series of incorrect, omitted and incomplete capital market information.

Top European News

  • Coronavirus Outbreaks Rip Through European Slaughterhouses
  • U.K. Bond Yields Drop to Record With Bets of Rate Cut Revving Up
  • ABN Amro Loss Worse Than Expected After $1.2 Billion Hit

In FX, A relatively large 815 mn option expiry at the 0.6000 strike may keep the Kiwi afloat, but the NIRP factor has really rattled the Nzd again after the RBNZ kept the door wide open to the possibility that the OCR could be lowered from the current 0.25% to sub-zero. To recap, QE was increased to Nzd 60 bn from Nzd 33 bn, as widely expected, and linkers will now be included in the asset purchase remit, but rate guidance was considerably more dovish than many envisaged to leave Nzd/Usd hovering just above the round number and Aud/Nzd not far from 1.0800 compared to around 1.0620 at one stage before the policy meeting. Conversely, the Aussie has gleaned some traction from an encouraging rebound in Westpac consumer sentiment that posted a record monthly rise in percentage terms on the eve of jobs data, with Aud/Usd nudging back up towards 0.6500 where 1 bn expiries roll off at today’s NY cut.

  • GBP/SEK/NOK – The Pound has recovered from another bout of seasonal May selling pressure, partly on technical grounds as Cable narrowly survived a test of key support at 1.2248, but also due to UK GDP and output for March/Q1 confounding consensus for significant declines, albeit still extremely weak. However, Sterling remains on the back foot below 1.2300 vs the Dollar and well under 0.8800 against a more rangy, resilient Euro in similar vein to the Swedish Crown that has retreated through 10.6000 in wake of headline and core inflation turning negative and sending another signal to the Riksbank that it may yet have to follow its Scandinavian neighbour with a conventional policy response. On that note, Eur/Nok has reversed more post-Norges Bank knee-jerk gains through 11.0000, but unconvincingly so far as Governor Olsen reiterates that the benchmark depo rate is unlikely to fall further from 0%.
  • CAD/EUR/CHF/JPY – Renewed risk aversion and a downturn in crude prices have not undermined the Loonie, though Usd/Cad is pivoting 1.4050 after touching 1.3900, as the DXY pares Tuesday’s relatively heavy retracement losses between 100.090-99.894 parameters awaiting Fed chair Powell’s address for the definitive word on negative rates and any other policy insight. Note also, hefty 1.5 bn expiry interest at the 1.4000 strike may keep the pair elevated ahead of Powell if not the NY cut. Meanwhile, the single currency and Swiss Franc have also lost momentum amidst the broad Buck revival, with Eur/Usd unable to challenge yesterday’s best and straddling 1.0850, Usd/Chf over 0.9700 again and Eur/Chf slightly firmer within a 1.0517-28 band, in contrast to the Yen that has rediscovered its safe-haven allure and eyeing 107.00 resistance and offers.
  • EM – Perhaps the most poignant test so far of the Lira’s new found power to resist bearish impulses as Usd/Try remains below the psychological 7.0000 level even though Turkey’s current account shortfall surpassed forecasts and almost quintupled in March from the previous month to a near 2 year wide deficit.
  • RBNZ kept the OCR unchanged at 0.25% and boosted the Large Scale Asset Purchases programme to NZD 60bln from NZD 33bln as expected, while it stated the LSAP programme will now include NZ government inflation indexed bonds and it expects retail interest rates to decline further. The Committee reaffirmed forward guidance that the OCR will remain at 0.25% until early 2021 but noted negative OCR will become an option in the future and that discussions with financial institutions regarding a negative OCR are ongoing. Furthermore, the central bank stated that financial institutions are not operationally ready for negative rates but they have asked banks to be ready by end of the year for negative rates and they agreed that a least regrets monetary policy approach is needed, delivering stimulus sooner rather than later. (Newswires)

In commodities, WTI and Brent front month-futures extended on losses from the APAC session as sentiment across the market remains on the backfoot. Prices waned off OPEC sources highs potentially on worries surrounding US-Sino relations, but participants note that concerns over hitting storage capacity have eased as demand gradually recovers, whilst supply cuts also provides a less bearish outlook vs. March. Yesterday’s API printed a larger-than-expected build of 7.6mln barrels vs. Exp. 4.1mln, but Cushing saw a draw of 2.216mln barrels – traders will be eyeing today’s DoEs for confirmation. Looking at the WTI forward curve, a chunk of open interest resides in the December 20 contract – reflecting funds’ moves from front-month to further down the line. Elsewhere, EIA STEO cut 2020 world oil demand growth forecast by 2.9mln BPD to a decline of 8.13mln BPD Y/Y and its 2021 world oil demand forecast was cut by 580k BPD to 6.99mln BPD Y/Y increase, while it sees inventories to begin drawing in July 2020 and with draws continuing through the end  of 2021. The OPEC MOMR will be released later today. WTI June and Brent July both meander off session lows of USD 25.10/bbl (vs. high USD 25.81/bbl) and USD 28.92/bbl (vs. high USD 29.69/bbl) respectively. Meanwhile, spot gold remains lacklustre in a tight USD 6/oz range on either side of 1700/oz, awaiting Fed Chair Powel’s speech on current economic issues at 1400BST. Copper prices meanwhile initially extended on losses amid concerns on the US-China trade front coupled by resurfacings COVID-19 cases in some countries believed to have been “success stories”.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: PPI Final Demand MoM, est. -0.5%, prior -0.2%; PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, est. -0.1%, prior 0.2%
  • 8:30am: PPI Final Demand YoY, est. -0.4%, prior 0.7%; PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 0.8%, prior 1.4%

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Today we are launching our seventh monthly EMR sentiment survey, which can be done easily on either your phone or PC. Here is the link. We’ve once again shortened the market section but have added a few more covid-19 questions. We continue to ask about your WFH experience but also ask your thoughts on the duration of this pandemic, how that will impact various parts of your life and also when you think a virus will be readily available. The more people that fill it in the more interesting the answers so please take a look. You don’t have to answer all questions and it’s all anonymous which will help if you don’t want your boss to know you like working from home.

The quiet week so far exploded into life in the last hour of US trading last night. The main event of the week was meant to be Powell’s speech early in the US session today but he was upstaged last night by Fauci’s cautious tone with regards to re-openings and US Senator Graham’s introduction of a hawkish China bill. Against this backdrop, the S&P 500 closed down -2.05% breaking a string of 3 consecutive days higher, the longest since early February. The NASDAQ (-2.06%) was earlier continuing to out-perform but the weak close edged it just behind the S&P 500. Earlier the Stoxx 600 didn’t hint at the late session weakness to come as it rose +0.26%.

The initial turn in equity pricing coincided with Dr.Fauci’s (the Director of National Institute Allergy and Infectious Diseases in the US) testimony before the US Senate health committee, where he warned that reopening “could even set you back on the road to economic recovery”. Along with top officials from the CDC and FDA, he also said that they don’t see a vaccine by the fall and that the current death toll in the US is likely higher than the official count, but with uncertainties as to how much higher.

After that body blow the market dipped, but the real damage seemed to coincide with discussions on more US/China tensions. Senator Lindsay Graham and other Republican Senators introduced a bill “that would authorize the President to impose sanctions on the People’s Republic of China if China fails to cooperate and provide a full accounting of the events leading up to the outbreak of COVID-19.” So one to make markets nervous.

In the wake of the weak close on Wall Street, Asian markets opened with decent declines but have recovered in the last couple of hours. The Hang Seng and Kospi are now unchanged while the Nikkei (-0.44%), Shanghai Comp (-0.18%) and ASX (-0.42%) have pared steeper declines. Elsewhere, India’s Nifty is trading up +1.98% following the announcement of government stimulus to the tune of c.$265bn. Futures on the S&P 500 are also trading flat as we type.

In other news, overnight the RBNZ increased its asset-purchase program to NZD60 billion ($36 billion) from NZD33 billion while keeping the official cash rate unchanged but signaled that it is open to further interest rate cuts, including taking them negative, as it attempts to cushion the economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic. The New Zealand dollar is trading down -1.09% this morning. Here in the UK, the Telegraph reported overnight citing a confidential Treasury assessment of the coronavirus crisis estimates that it will cost the Exchequer almost £300bn this year and could require measures including an increase in income tax, the end of the triple lock on state pension increases and a two-year public sector pay freeze.

Today, attention will turn to Fed Chair Powell, who’ll be speaking at the Peterson Institute for International Economics at 9 am EST (via webcast of course). The description of the event says he’ll make “remarks on current economic issues”, which will be followed by a discussion with the Peterson Institute’s president. The market expectation is that he’ll discuss future policy options including negative rates which various Fed presidents have been very reluctant to endorse of late.

One President that was only too happy to endorse such a policy though was Mr Trump who said in a tweet yesterday that “As long as other countries are receiving the benefits of Negative Rates, the USA should also accept the “GIFT”. Big numbers!” That came as we heard from a number of Fed speakers, who all warned of the potential for massive economic damage. St. Louis Fed President Bullard said that “You will get business failures on a grand scale and you will be taking risks that you would go into depression” if the shutdowns last as long as 90 or 120 days. Meanwhile, Dallas Fed President Kaplan also said in a CNN interview that “If we get to a peak unemployment rate, which we think will be around 20%, and we end the year around a 10% unemployment rate, there may well need to be more fiscal stimulus in order to boost economic growth”. We also heard from the Fed’s Quarles during the day and he said that the Fed could curtail Wall Street banks’ ability to pay dividends by cranking up the amount of capital they need to maintain due to the coronavirus crisis. Later in the evening, Cleveland Fed President Mester said that unemployment is likely to reach or pass 20% in the US, before a slow and uncertain economic recovery in the fall of 2020.

Given the late risk off move yesterday sovereign bond markets were fairly dichotomous as well. 10yr bund yields ended the session up +0.7bps, while 10yr Treasury yields fell by -4.5bps – the 3rd largest daily fall in 10yr yields in a month. Risk off and a successful auction seemed to spur the late rally. With most of the market moving news in the US, there was little to comment on spreads, with those on Italian 10yr debt over bunds widening by +0.5bps with those on Spanish debt falling by -3.2bps. Commodities had a more positive time, with WTI oil rising to its highest level in over a month yesterday, up +6.79% to $25.78/barrel, with Brent also up +1.18%.

Ahead of Powell today, data yesterday showed some truly historic moves in US inflation, with a sizeable move lower in US consumer prices in April. The main headline was that the core CPI index fell by -0.4%, which was its largest month-on-month fall since the data series began in 1957. The overall CPI fell by -0.8%, which was itself the biggest decline since December 2008. Unsurprisingly energy saw some of the largest declines, with gasoline down -20.6% on the previous month. In terms of the annual numbers, that means CPI now stands at just +0.3% (vs. +0.4% expected), the lowest since October 2015, while core CPI of +1.4% (vs. +1.7% expected) is at its lowest since April 2011.

Other data out yesterday was predictably bad. The NFIB small business optimism index fell to 90.9 in April, the lowest since March 2013, though this was better than the 83.0 reading expected. Meanwhile, industrial production in India was down by -16.7% in March, more than double the -8.0% decline expected.

Before the day ahead a note that we are launching the latest edition of Konzept – DB Research’s magazine – today. The subject matter is “Life after covid-19”. In the magazine we have 20 articles about how the world will change covering macro, micro and life in general. In one of the lead features we have opposing strong views on why this crisis will be inflation/deflationary. We will release a podcast on this debate tomorrow which I compered in a hopefully neutral manner. So watch this space.

To the day ahead now, and the highlight will probably be the aforementioned speech from Fed Chair Powell, while we’ll also hear from the ECB’s Vice President de Guindos and their Chief Economist Lane. In terms of data releases, there’ll be the UK’s Q1 GDP reading, the Euro Area’s industrial production for March, and from the US we have April’s PPI and weekly MBA mortgage applications.

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)WEDNESDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 6.49 POINTS OR 0.22%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 65.38 POINTS OR 0.27%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 99.43 POINTS OR 0.49%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .30%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 7.0924 /Oil UP TO 25.87 dollars per barrel for WTI and 30.13 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.0924 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.1039 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 C CHINA

CORONAVIRUS UPDATE/WEDNESDAY/CHINA/GLOBE

Second Wave? China Orders ‘Partial Lockdown’ Of Border City; Seoul’s Newest Cluster Explodes To 120 Cases: Live Updates

Summary:

  • China imposes ‘partial lockdown’ on northeastern border city
  • SK’s ‘Itaewon’ cluster climbs to 120
  • Germany, Austria agree to reopen mutual border
  • Global cases: 4.22 million
  • Global deaths: 291,519
  • Poland reports record jump in new cases
  • Russia sees numbers start to slow after shocking record run of confirmations

*          *           *

As we reported last night, news that LA County suspects its reopening will take up to 3 months – a month longer than previously expected – sent markets lower into the close. That news, combined with Dr. Fauci’s warning about states rushing to reopen, cemented the impression that the reopening of the American economy would probably be much more fraught with delays. And for a brief moment, it seemed like fun-durr-mentals almost mattered again…

Anyway, European markets wobbled Wednesday following reports that the latest cluster of cases in Seoul had climbed to 119, the latest increase of dozens of cases as contact-tracers scramble to test as many people as possible. More than 14k people have been tested so far. To be sure, investigators have made some discoveries that undermined the theory that all of these cases are connected to one “super-spreader”. Rather, it’s believed that most of these cases were likely individuals who were asymptomatically infected elsewhere. The cases have been linked to multiple cases.

While South Korea remains on high alert, the situation in northeastern China grew even more dire. As we have reported this week, local party officials in Jilin City had reimposed restrictions after an outbreak. Now, they’re taking things a step further and ordering a ‘partial lockdown’ of the village. Residents will only be allowed to leave after they’ve completed a period of ‘self-isolation’ and tested negative for the virus. Residential compounds have been closed to visitors, and public transit has been halted.

It’s just the latest sign that both China and South Korea might be seeing the first stirrings of the ‘second wave’ that Dr. Fauci and other scientists have warned about.

After rocketing into the No. 2 spot directly behind the US, Russia’s rate of new coronavirus cases eased on Wednesday, even if only slightly, as the country recorded an 11th consecutive day with more than 10,000 fresh infections. Russia recorded 10,028 new cases on Wednesday, according to official government data, the smallest rise in almost a fortnight. Its total number of cases is now at 242,271, with 2,212 deaths.

As of Wednesday morning, the virus had infected more than 4.2 million people globally and killed 291,519, according to JHU’s tally.

According to data released around the world on Tuesday, the number of new infections confirmed jumped day-over-day on Monday (though Mondays often see the largest daily tallies of the week since they directly follow the weekend).

The German government says it has extended controls on its borders with France, Switzerland and Austria until June 15, according to interior minister Horst Seehofer. Germany plans to open its border with Luxembourg on Saturday, and hopes to reopen its border with Denmark.

Austria said Wednesday it would fully reopen its border with Germany by mid-June and plans to open travel to most of its neighboring countries in the coming weeks, beginning on Friday, as it continues with its reopening push.

Just days after Colombia’s Avianca, Latin America’s second-largest airline, filed for bankruptcy protection, Dubai’s Emirates has announced plans to reopen scheduled flights to nine destinations from May 21, the latest sign of “green shoots” in the air travel industry, even though traffic remains more than 90% below average.

As Democrats in Congress push a $3 trillion coronavirus relief bill targeted at states and American households, Reuters reports that one progressive lawmaker and Democratic Socialist icon is taking the cause of coronavirus relief a step further, and pushing for the IMF and World Bank to forgive the debts of the poorest countries. Both NGOs have already waived the next six months’ worth of payments for 25 of the world’s poorest countries.

Over 300 lawmakers from around the world on Wednesday urged the International Monetary Fund and World Bank to cancel the debt of the poorest countries in response to the coronavirus pandemic, and to boost funding to avert a global economic meltdown.

The initiative, led by former U.S. presidential candidate Senator Bernie Sanders and Representative Ilham Omar, a Democrat from Minnesota, comes amid growing concern that developing countries and emerging economies will be devastated by the pandemic.

We can already hear the Sanders-nistas cooing about how their brave hero, having been robbed of the nomination he so rightfully deserved, continues to fight not only for the ‘real Americans’ of the working class – i.e. the struggling Brooklyn-based ‘freelance writers’ who account for much of Sanders’ most vocal supporters – but for the besotted masses of the ‘developing world’ (a racist term, no doubt).

END

CHINA/USA

Futures initially slide after Senators are proposing legislation to sanction China unless a “full accounting” comes forth out of China re the origins of the coronavirus outbreak

(zerohedge)

 

Futures Slide After Senators Propose Legislation To Sanction China If No “Full Accounting” For Coronavirus Outbreak

Just hours after futures tumbled following a report that Republican Senator Graham and GOP Senators have introduced a bill sanctioning China for human rights abuses and over its treatment of Uighurs, moments ago futures took another leg lower on the back of an AFP report that Republican senators proposed legislation that would empower President Donald Trump to slap sanctions on China if Beijing does not give a “full accounting” for the coronavirus outbreak.

In other words, unless there was something lost in translation, Trump will have a carte blanche to sanction China on two account: the Uighurs and Beijing’s secrecy over the origin of the coronavirus pandemic.

“The Chinese Communist Party must be held accountable for the detrimental role they played in this pandemic,” said Senator Jim Inhofe, one of the sponsors of the “COVID-19 Accountability Act”, adding that China’s outright deception of the origin and spread of the virus cost the world valuable time and lives as it began to spread.”

The legislation will give Trump 60 days to certify to Congress that China has provided a full accounting on the COVID-19 outbreak to an investigation that could be led by the United States and its allies, or a United Nations body like the World Health Organization. Of course, China has repeatedly refused to allow any such “accounting” to the WHO; one can imagine how it will respond when a US body demands similar “accounting.”

As a reminder, yesterday Beijing banned roughly 35% of Australian beef imports due to the country’s demand a probe into the coronavirus origins be launched.

But wait, it gets better: In an act that China would see as violating its sovereignty, Trump must also certify that China has closed its highest-risk wet markets and released Hong Kong activists arrested in post-COVID-19 crackdowns. Without certification, Trump would be authorized under the legislation to impose sanctions like asset freezes, travel bans and visa revocations, as well as restricting Chinese businesses’ access to US bank financing and capital markets.

“China refuses to allow the international community to go into the Wuhan lab to investigate,” said Senator Lindsey Graham, another sponsor of the bill.

“They refuse to allow investigators to study how this outbreak started. I’m convinced China will never cooperate with a serious investigation unless they are made to do so.”

Following the report, futures which had already legged sharply lower on Tuesday afternoon, tumbled to session lows, as traders now await China’s less than diginified response and as it becomes all too clear that launching a full on assault on China will be a core aspect of Trump’s re-election campaign.

END
CHINA’S RESPONSE

China Preparing “Punishment Measures Against Members Of Congress” In Response To Anti-China Litigation

Earlier today, we published the latest note from Rabobank’s Michael Every, who warned that “US-China Relations Are About To Fall Off A Cliff”, following the sharp escalation in diplomatic (and military) tensions between the US and China in recent days, which he laid out as follows:

the US Senate is set for action as soon as this week on approval of a bill that would impose US sanctions on Chinese individuals seen as responsible for human rights abuses in Xinjiang. The Senate has already unanimously passed a first reading of a version of The Uyghur Human Rights Policy Act 2019, and the House passed a stronger form in September. We are hence edging closer to it taking a veto from Trump to avoid it becoming law. Which he did not do on legislation focused on Hong Kong, of course.

Furthermore, the AFP reports another group of Republican senators has proposed The COVID-19 Accountability Act, which if passed will give Trump 60 days to certify to Congress that China has provided a full accounting to an independent body, such as the UN, of what happened with this virus, has closed all its highest-risk wet markets, and has released all Hong Kong activists arrested recently. Failure to do so would authorize Trump to impose sanctions such as an asset freeze, travel bans, visa revocations, and to restrict Chinese businesses’ access to the US banking system and capital markets. (And we are once again back to the Eurodollar weapon given that would mean an inability for China to access USD if so.)

Notably, there is very little popular sentiment in the US to avoid movement on either of these bills, and no likelihood at all of China moving on either of these issues to try to cap US anger. (Indeed, in Hong Kong, part of one of the bills’ focus, the government is pushing ahead urgently with legislation to criminalise booing the Chinese national anthem, and is flagging the removal of civics from the school curriculum.)

As Every cautioned, echoing what we said yesterday, “either bill would severely impact already dented US-China relations – especially on the back of the US decision on de facto capital controls to China, and the Global Times’ claim of a “tsunami of anger” already leading some in China to consider walking away from the “Phase One Trade Deal” by declaring force majeure. Likewise, did nobody read the op-ed written by USTR Lighthizer which screamed ‘Made in America’? As a former Deputy USTR once told me, as lawyers USTRs had one missive: whether silicon chips or potato chips, more free trade was always better. Well not anymore.”

And while the “market” that is USD/CNH is still largely unmoved…

… “so is snow before the avalanche“, and as we also said previously, “Trump already has zero rates and the Fed buying trillions in assets, and he and EVERYONE knows they will do even more if markets fall. So why not push back against China to provide political cover?

So while we wait to see whether Trump decides to go “all in” anti-China sentiment ahead of the election, moments ago Beijing – via its Twitter mouthpiece, Global Time editor in chief Hu Xijing, issued a preemptive warning, saying that “to counteract the abuse of anti-China litigation over COVID-19, Beijing is already preparing to take the necessary punishment measures against some members of the US Congress, the state of Missouri, and relevant individuals and entities.”

Hu Xijin 胡锡进

@HuXijin_GT

To counteract the abuse of anti-China litigation over COVID-19, Beijing is already preparing to take the necessary punishment measures against some members of the US Congress, the state of Missouri, and relevant individuals and entities, sources told Global Times

The bottom line is that as the Trump Administration makes China central to the re-election campaign, Beijing won’t just “stand there” and take it, which means that any incremental push by either said will be met – for the first time since the trade war which concluded with a tentative truce in January – with more than just jawboning, and once words turn to deeds, it will be very difficult to de-escalate before the November 3 election.

end
CHINA/USA RELATIONS
Michael Every on the huge China and USA conflict.  The USA is proposing cutting off China from getting access to dollars
(Michael Every)

Rabobank: US-China Relations Are About To Fall Off A Cliff

Submitted by Rabobank’s Michael Every

The title of today’s Daily may go over the head of those who don’t speak French (even very poorly, like me). It nonetheless still coveys a message, I hope – albeit one that has yet again gone right over the head of Bloomberg. Our ‘go-to’ market news service had decided that its daybreak headlines for me were: a US virus reopening story; a record US budget deficit, and; President Trump tweeting about negative rates. All of them are newsworthy – but none of them are new.

The on/off reopening is already a meme we know well and are seeing everywhere. The record budget deficit is a surprise how? We all know the spending bills just passed and the collapse in tax revenue to be seen. Even negative rates, while not something the Fed wants, are lower than where Fed Funds is now – and higher than in Europe and Japan, while now New Zealand is flirting with negative rates while adding even more asset purchases (which saw NZ down sharply to the 0.6010 level). Why wouldn’t Trump push for the US to be lower-er than the lower-er-est rates out there when the US budget deficit is about to get as big as it is in Japan, and public debt is heading off on the same path?

What Bloomberg doesn’t mention as major news is that the US Senate is set for action as soon as this week on approval of a bill that would impose US sanctions on Chinese individuals seen as responsible for human rights abuses in Xinjiang. The Senate has already unanimously passed a first reading of a version of The Uyghur Human Rights Policy Act 2019, and the House passed a stronger form in September. We are hence edging closer to it taking a veto from Trump to avoid it becoming law. Which he did not do on legislation focused on Hong Kong, of course.

Furthermore, the AFP reports another group of Republican senators has proposed The COVID-19 Accountability Act, which if passed will give Trump 60 days to certify to Congress that China has provided a full accounting to an independent body, such as the UN, of what happened with this virus, has closed all its highest-risk wet markets, and has released all Hong Kong activists arrested recently. Failure to do so would authorize Trump to impose sanctions such as an asset freeze, travel bans, visa revocations, and to restrict Chinese businesses’ access to the US banking system and capital markets. (And we are once again back to the Eurodollar weapon given that would mean an inability for China to access USD if so.)

Notably, there is very little popular sentiment in the US to avoid movement on either of these bills, and no likelihood at all of China moving on either of these issues to try to cap US anger. (Indeed, in Hong Kong, part of one of the bills’ focus, the government is pushing ahead urgently with legislation to criminalise booing the Chinese national anthem, and is flagging the removal of civics from the school curriculum.)

Either bill would severely impact already dented US-China relations – especially on the back of the US decision on de facto capital controls to China, and the Global Times’ claim of a “tsunami of anger” already leading some in China to consider walking away from the “Phase One Trade Deal” by declaring force majeure. Likewise, did nobody read the op-ed written by USTR Lighthizer which screamed ‘Made in America’? As a former Deputy USTR once told me, as lawyers USTRs had one missive: whether silicon chips or potato chips, more free trade was always better. Well not anymore.

Yes, the “market” that is USD/CNH is still unmoved – but so is snow before the avalanche. Just count slowly upwards and we will get there: and much faster with fewer exports to the US and no Chinese access to the USD system. Indeed, we just saw a rare stumble in equities and a drop in US 10-year yields back to 0.67% after a stellar auction. Of course, we will then be told that this is just noise: but as noted before Trump already has zero rates and the Fed buying trillions in assets, and he and EVERYONE knows they will do even more if markets fall. So why not push back against China to provide political cover?

Meanwhile the same 1, 2, 3, 4, sanctions issue is also playing out in Europe. A German constitutional court judge has spoken about its recent controversial ruling, stating the ECB isn’t ”Master of the Universe”. Does that sound like a judicial retreat to you? In response, the ECB’s Chief Economist has stated that its asset buying is “proportionate” and will end “as soon as the inflation aim is reached.” Which to anyone looking at the Bank of Japan will immediately set off alarm bells, as it implies it will never stop – and I would assume the German judges are quite capable of looking at Japan as an example. Risk on or off, would you say?

end
CHINA/AUTO SALES
Despite a sizable bounce China’s auto sales fall 5.6% year over year..if you believe their numbers
(zerohedge)

China Auto Sales Fall 5.6% YOY In April Despite Sizable Bounce Back From March

The auto market in China is a widely watched economic gauge and leading indicator for the rest of the world, not only because the country is the number one seller of vehicles worldwide, but now also as a litmus test as to how the country’s coronavirus re-opening is faring.

For now, despite a questionable miraculous-looking rebound, sales are still falling.

April’s auto sales numbers came in down 5.6% compared to last year, despite rising 37% from March numbers, according to data released Sunday by the China Passenger Car Association and MarketWatch.

The CAAM claims that declines are moderating although we have a tough time believing (pardon our skepticism of China) that such a V-shaped recovery is possible in the country where the outbreak first began.

According to China’s data, the YOY growth rebound is pronounced and April’s drop pales in comparison to a 40% YOY drop in March and a 79% YOY drop in February.

The Chinese government is going to attempt to spur demand with new policies aimed at enticing buyers, according to Bloomberg, citing an unnamed automotive industry group in China.

Recall, we have recently noted that U.S. auto manufacturers are teeing up sizeable incentives to get buyers back into showrooms. Europe is following suit, with Volkswagen starting a sales initiative to revive demand, including improved leasing and financing terms.

Meanwhile, optimism for May in China is already muted.

Not only is the country still struggling with lockdowns, but the first five days in May were a labor holiday that could have a negative impact on sales.

Outlook for the year is also less-than-optimistic. The CAAM predicts that sales will drop 15% to 25% for the year, depending on whether or not the country is able to further slow the spread of the virus.

CHINA/USA/UN
China is asking for a “ceasefire” in USA attacks to China on the origins of the coronavirus.  The UN has written a draft on this but the USA is blocking it
China is very upset
(zerohedge)

“Shocking & Regretful”: UN Security Council Becomes US-China Battleground Over WHO

At this point China is grasping at whatever it can to use as leverage to “embarrass” Washington — so to no one’s surprise Chinese officials are expressing outrage at the US blocking a draft United Nations Security Council resolution backing UN chief Antonio Guterres’ call for a global ceasefire in order to concentrate the world’s resources on fighting the coronavirus pandemic.

A Chinese diplomat was cited in Reuters as saying it was “shocking and regretful” that Washington withdrew its support for the draft resolution Friday.

“The United States had agreed to the compromise text and it’s shocking and regretful that the U.S. changed its position,” the diplomat said. However, a US official shot back, saying there was never any agreement about the text.

 

UN Secretary General with Director General of the WHO, via Xinhuanet

Front and center to the debate is the World Health Organization, currently source of deep controversy and growing tensions between China and the US, especially after German intelligence just revealed that Chinese President Xi Jinping asked World Health Organization (WHO) Director-General Tedros Adhanom Thebreyesus to cover up the severity of the coronavirus pandemic in January, according to a bombshell Der Spiegelreport.

As related to the UN’s draft ‘global ceasefire’ Reuters explains that “talks have been stymied by a stand-off between China and the United States over whether to mention the World Health Organization.”

The US ultimately rejected any reference to the WHO, even when the text was changed to merely denote “specialized health agencies” instead of a direct reference. US diplomats also reportedly vowed to veto anything with such language in it.

President Trump cut off funding for the WHO, which is a UN agency, after it not only severely downplayed the coming threat of a global pandemic (by only belatedly identifying it as such), but after the administration charged the organization with being “China-centric” and allowing itself to be Beijing’s “disinformation” puppet as communist officials attempted to do PR damage control after the disease ripped through Wuhan and then spread far outside China’s borders.

end
CHINA/USA
You will see more of these:  An Arkansas Prof is arrested for concealing close ties to China.  He is accused of a scheme to defraud as he received millions in grants.  This is part of the Thousands Talent Scholars program.  These guys have been collecting money from both China and the USA
(zerohedge)

Arkansas Prof Arrested For Concealing ‘Close’ Ties To China; Accused Of ‘Scheme To Defraud’ While Receiving Millions In Grants

A professor at the University of Arkansas who received millions of dollars in research grants, including $500,000 from NASA, was arrested on Friday and charged with one count of wire fraud, according to a criminal affidavit unsealed Monday.

63-year-old Simon Saw-Teong Ang is the director of the school’s High Density Electronics Center, which received funding from the National Science Foundation (NSF), Department of Energy (DOE), Department of Defense (DOD) and NASA. Since 2013, Ang has been the primary investigator or co-investigator on US government-funded grants totaling over $5 million, according to the Washington Examiner‘s Jerry Dunleavy.

According to the FBI, Ang failed to disclose that he was getting paid by a Chinese university and Chinese companies in violation of university policy. He is accused of making false statements while failing to disclose his extensive ties to China as a member of the “Thousand Talents Scholars” program.

Ang intentionally made materially false representations to the University of Arkansas and NASA which caused with transmission to be sent and received in the form of grant applications and grant funding that he would not otherwise have been entitled to receive,” wrote FBI special agent Jonathan Willett in the affidavit.

“The complaint charges that Ang had close ties with the Chinese government and Chinese companies, and failed to disclose those ties when required to do so in order to receive grant money from NASA,” said the Justice Department. “These materially false representations to NASA and the University of Arkansas resulted in numerous wires to be sent and received that facilitated Ang’s scheme to defraud.”

The FBI was tipped off to Ang’s activities after a hard drive was turned into the university’s lost and found. In an attempt to determine who it belonged to, a staff member discovered an email exchanges between the professor and a visiting researcher from Xidian University in Xi’an China in a file conspicuously labeled “Ang_Confidential.pdf.”

In one email from September 15, 2018, Ang writes:

“Dear [RESEARCHER 1], I want you to understand that I will do my best to support your stay here in Arkansas, there are things that are becoming very difficult for me recently because of the political climate. You can search the Chiense website regarding what the US will do to Thousand Talent ScholarsNot many people here know I am one of them but if this leaks out, my job here will be in deep troubles. I have to be very careful or else I may be out of a job from this university. I hope you understand my deep concerns…Please keep this to yourself as I trust you.”

In November, the Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations chaired by Sen. Rob Portman (R-OH) released a 109-page bipartisan report which concluded that foreign nations “seek to exploit America’s openness to advance their own national interests,” the most ambitious of which “has been China,” according to the Examiner. According to the report, Chinese academics involved in their so-called ‘Thousand Talents’ program have been exploiting access to US research labs.

Ang applied for and was awarded a NASA grant for a November 2016 proposal titled “500° Celsius Capable Weather-Resistant Electronics Packaging for Extreme Environment Exploration.” The government funding was worth $512,904 between 2017 and 2020, and he got it despite NASA’s “China Funding Restriction.” The NASA contracting officer overseeing the $500,000 grant said it never would have been awarded to Ang if they had known about his vast China connections. –Washington Examiner

According to the FBI, Ang did disclose his participation in the “Thousand Talents Scholars” in 2014, but not his participation in other programs from 2012 – 2018, which the FBI suggested demonstrated ‘his intent to execute a scheme do defraud the University of Arkansas and NASA” since he “obviously knew about the requirement to disclosure such conflicts of interest and deliberately kept all such conflicts of interest” from them.

In addition to his participation in the Thousand Talents program, Ang concealed his role at Binzhou Maotong Electronic Technology Company from 2011 – 2018 while acting as their principal investigator for a research project concerning hydrogen fuel cell research. He also failed to mention that he was the CTO at Binzhou Gande Electronic Technology from 2011 – 2018, as well as his stake in Jiangsu Xuanzhi New Materials and Technology Company – which he claimed to own between 7 – 9% of in an email.

The Justice Department’s China Initiative, launched in 2018, aims to combat both Chinese malign influence (ranging from cyberespionage to technology theft) and its Thousand Talents Program, which is aimed at stealing research. The department charged Chinese telecommunications giant Huawei in a global racketeering scheme earlier this year.

On Friday, Dr. Xiao-Jiang Li, a former Emory University professor and Chinese Thousand Talents Program participant, pleaded guilty to filing false tax returns after he worked overseas at Chinese universities and did not report any of his foreign income on his federal tax returns.

The Department of Education’s Foreign Gift and Contract Report website shows $15.76 billion in foreign funding on U.S. campuses between 2014 and 2019, including $1.17 billion from China. Both the Education Department and Justice Department prosecutors have gone after universities for concealing their foreign funding. –Washington Examiner

 

end

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

GERMANY/EU

Two commentaries.  Mish Shedlock highlighted this to us yesterday.  The German Constitutional Court challenged the European Court of Justice on whether it was legal for QE.  The German court gave the ECJ 3 months to explain why it is legal. Now the EU is threatening to sue Germany..Good luck to them

(zerohedge)

EU Threatens To Sue After Germany Questions Legality Of ECB Bond Buying Program

Germany and the EU are in the midst of an escalating legal struggle that could wreak havoc for the Eurozone.

The struggle came to a head on Sunday when the EU threatened to sue Germany after the country’s top court questioned the ECB’s bond buying program. The program was approved by a 15 judge EU panel in December 2018. 

The question is one of which court holds the power: under EU treaties, the EU Court of Justiceshould rank higher. That was the court that cleared the central bank’s bond purchases, which have totaled $2.9 trillion since 2015. But German judges said the country could “deviate because the bloc’s top judges overstepped their powers when they backed the ECB’s policy in a previous ruling,” according to Bloomberg

Naturally, this drew criticism from European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who commented on Sunday: “The final word on EU law is always spoken by the European court. Nowhere else.”

In a case where a member country doesn’t follow its rules, the EU issues a warning and then moves to file a court case. But having such a powerful nation defy the EU leaves the commission in a tough spot. 

Miguel Maduro, a former advocate general at the EU Court of Justice, said: “The commission cannot simply ignore this challenge to EU law. Otherwise, such national challenges might be replicated by other states. What would the commission do if the Hungarian constitutional court or the Polish constitutional court, or others, do something like this.”

It would almost be like they were actual countries again…

“Making this statement that they’re considering opening an infringement procedure without actually opening it is a smart, prudent approach,” Maduro said.

In the event that the EU does sue, it would be heard by the EU’s top court – the same ones that Germany is currently having a dispute with

Meanwhile, ECB President Christine Lagarde has said that the central bank doesn’t plan on taking action and argued that the ECB is not under the purview of the EU Court of Justice, but rather is accountable to European Parliament.

Germany’s hand remains to be seen. The country’s court, which is held in high favor by its citizens, has championed civil liberties and has high approval rates. Bloomberg even speculated that Chancellor Angela Merkel may want to lose the case on purpose, so Germany’s leaders could still say it protected Germany’s constitution, while ultimately caving to the EU.

Germany has repeatedly challenged the ECB’s bond buying program and Eurozone bailouts.

Soon, we predict, other countries could follow suit. The jig for the EU appears to be close to up. Central Banks could be next...

END
GERMANY/EUROPE
German judges strike back hard against the EU
(zerohedge)

Europe In Crisis: German Judges Strike Back, Say ECB Isn’t “Master Of The Universe”

One week after Germany’s constitutional court sparked a crisis about the legality of the ECB’s QE, promoting an angry response from both the EU and the ECB, members of Germany’s top court continued to defend their controversial decision that questioned the constitutionality of the European Central Bank’s asset repurchase program, saying national courts have a limited oversight role over the bloc’s judges.

AS Bloomberg reported overnight, Peter Huber, who drafted last week’s ruling for Germany’s constitutional court, said the judges wanted the ECB to take responsibility for the QE program and to explain it to those negatively affected, such as all those German savers who have to pay their bank to hold their money. In another newspaper interview, his colleague Andreas Vosskuhle denied that the EU top court always has the last word in matters of the region’s law.

“This ruling is good for Europe because it strengthens the rule of law,” Vosskuhle told Die Zeit. National courts’ decisions “are legitimate and courts are obliged to step in the rare exceptional cases when EU institutions gravely transgress their powers.”

Huber also said the German court only wants proof that ECB’s quantitative easing program is within its mandate. The central bank must show that it hasn’t overstepped its powers, as it doesn’t have the right to make moves just because Europe is in a crisis: “The message to the ECB is actually homeopathic,” Huber said Tuesday on Sueddeutsche Zeitung’s website. “It shouldn’t see itself as the ‘Master of the Universe.’ An institution like the ECB, which is only thinly legitimized democratically, is only acceptable if it strictly adheres to the responsibilities assigned to it.

Of course, by now it has long become clear that there is nothing democratic about the technocratic ECB, whose only purpose – as Mario Draghi made clear time after time – is preserving the Euro “whatever it takes” and making the rich richer in the process.

Commenting on the response by Huber, Rabobank’s Michael Every wrote this morning that “a German constitutional court judge has spoken about its recent controversial ruling, stating the ECB isn’t ”Master of the Universe”.”

“Does that sound like a judicial retreat to you”, Every asks? In response, the ECB’s Chief Economist has stated that its asset buying is “proportionate”and will end “as soon as the inflation aim is reached.”

Which to anyone looking at the Bank of Japan will immediately set off alarm bells, as it implies it will never stop – and I would assume the German judges are quite capable of looking at Japan as an example. Risk on or off, would you say?

As a reminder, on May 5 Germany’s top court ruled that the ECB is violating EU law by failing to properly justify its bond purchases program. The judges said Germany’s Bundesbank can no longer participate in the program unless the ECB justifies its policies within three months. The 7-to-1 decision, which goes against a 2018 ruling by the EU Court of Justice that upheld quantitative easing, opened a stark rift between the regional and national courts.

Unlike Poland or Hungary, the German judges don’t want to stop the EU top court from its oversight of the region’s institutions, Huber said. “We got a lot of applause from the wrong side,” said Huber, referring to comments by Poland’s government lauding the German ruling.

The German judges accept the role of the bloc’s top court and will only intervene in absolute exceptional cases, Huber said. “We want the EU top court to do its job better,” the judge said.

Germany
Is this the beginning of the end of Germany support for NATO and nukes on their soil?
(Mish Shedlock/Mishtalk)

Is This The Beginning Of The End Of German Support For NATO?

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,

Make way for the Greens and the Leftists. They do not want US nuclear weapons on German soil.

Angela Merkel will soon be gone. The next German coalition already shares new ideas in many areas including NATO.

Three Consequences

  1. Germany will cease its nuclear sharing agreement with the US.
  2. It will ask the US to remove its nuclear weapons from German soil.
  3. Germany will abandon plans to purchase US military equipment such as the F/A-18 Hornet.

Justyna Gotkowska from the OSW think tank in Warsaw, laments in a Twitter Thread that Germany may soon abandon a key pillar of its NATO defence policy.

Eurointelligence picked up on the thread in its report Will Germany cease to host US nuclear weapons on its soil?

Gotkowska argues that it is highly probable that Germany will end its participation in the nuclear sharing programme within ten years. While the government itself, including the SPD leadership, is committed to it, the programme is not supported by the rank-and-file of the SPD. We would add that it is not supported by the Greens either.

Rolf Mützenich, the SPD leader in the Bundestag, has now formally come out supporting withdrawal of US nuclear weapons from Germany, and quitting nuclear sharing. The SPD has also nominated an anti-nuclear MEP for the job of Bundeswehr ombudsman.

Gotkowska concludes that there is no longer a majority in the Bundestag for the procurement of the F/A-18 Hornet tactical aircraft, which forms a key component for the nuclear sharing strategy. The government has now pushed a decision on the F/A-18 into the next parliament, which is even less likely than the current one to support it. Germany’s exit from the programme poses important questions for Nato: whether Germany can still be useful in other ways, and whether others member will, or should, pick up the slack.

Fake News Headline

 

Defense News reports NATO chief backs Germany’s vow to keep war-ready US nukes

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has waded into Germany’s fiery debate about the decades-old pledge to retain American atomic bombs in the European nation as a way of deterring Russia.

Stoltenberg argued that only sticking to the doctrine of “nuclear sharing” would ensure Berlin’s continued seat at the table of strategic decision-making within the alliance.

Led by Rolf Mützenich, the chairman of the Social Democrats in parliament, a group within the governing coalition’s junior party want to exit the NATO atomic arrangement, arguing that deal, too, has outlived its usefulness.

Vow? What Vow? 

Both Eurointelligence and Gotkowska lament this result. I view this as a good thing.

I suggest we remove the nukes and the troops, not just from Germany, but everywhere.

If Germany or Japan or any other country wants US weapons or troops, they should pay for them, not US taxpayers.

END
EUROPE//CORONAVIRUS//CHAOS
The migrant problem as outlined by Kern of Gatestone
(Gatestone Institute)/Kern)

Europe’s COVID-19 Chaos: Lockdown For Locals, Amnesty For Illegals

Authored by Soeren Kern via The Gatestone Institute,

European governments are using the coronavirus pandemic to grant mass amnesties to hundreds of thousands of illegal immigrants from Africa, Asia and the Middle East.

While Europe is experiencing an economic shock without precedent, and tens of millions of Europeans have lost their livelihoods, migrants in Europe illegally are being showered with free housing and healthcare.

In Italy, where public debt is forecast to reach 160% of GDP this year, the left-wing coalition government has announced a plan to grant amnesty to at least 600,000 migrants in the country illegally. They would receive residency permits, initially valid for six months, that could be renewed in perpetuity.

The so-called Marshall Plan for Agriculture is the brainchild of Agriculture Minister Teresa Bellanova, who argues that the migrants are essential because they are picking crops and caring for the elderly during the coronavirus crisis. Opponents of the measure say that only a small fraction of the undocumented immigrants in Italy are currently working in agriculture or as care-givers for the elderly.

Approximately 100,000 farmhands from Eastern Europe work — legally — in Italy each year, but cannot this year due to coronavirus travel bans. Agriculture trade unions report a current shortage of 200,000 workers. This figure represents one-third of the number of migrants Bellanova says she would like to legalize.

Former Interior Minister Matteo Salvini, who now leads the opposition, said that he was in favor of temporarily granting work permits for those currently working as farmhands, but that a mass amnesty of hundreds of thousands of migrants cannot be justified. He proposed an alternative plan: unemployed immigrants who are in the country legally and receiving welfare payments should be recruited to work in the fields.

Salvini said that the regularization of hundreds of thousands of illegal immigrants was “slap in the face” to millions of unemployed Italians. He warned that it would also spark a new wave of illegal immigration to Italy. Bellanova threatened to resign if she does not get her way.

Although calls for a mass amnesty predate the coronavirus crisis by several years, they were consistently blocked while Salvini and his League party were in the government. The current government, sworn into office in September 2019, has been more liberal in matters of illegal immigration. Bellanova, backed by activist groups, now appears to be using the democratic vacuum created by the coronavirus state of emergency to decree the amnesty without parliamentary approval.

In Portugal, the government announced on March 28 that all migrants with pending applications would be treated as permanent residents until at least July 1 to ensure that the migrants would have access to public services during the coronavirus outbreak. The migrants were granted access to the national health service, welfare benefits, bank accounts, and work and rental contracts. The move by Portugal has spurred similar calls for mass amnesties in other European countries.

In France, more than 100 French MPs signed a letter addressed to Prime Minister Édouard Philippe which called on the government to regularize all undocumented migrants due to the coronavirus. The letter, published in the newspaper Le Journal du Dimanche on April 12, stated:

“We solemnly ask the French government to implement the same measures as the Portuguese government. The health catastrophe we are suffering from compels us to act responsibly and without delay, as did our Portuguese friends.”

The actual number of illegal immigrants in France is unknown but was estimated to be between 300,000 and 400,000 in 2017, according to the Pew Research Center. Considering the waves of mass migration since then, the number is probably well above a half-million.

In Spain, where an astonishing one-half of the total population of 47 million people now depend on payments from the state for their livelihoods, 200 NGOs asked the government for an “extraordinary regularization process” for illegal immigrants due to the coronavirus. “The wide and extraordinary regularization of all migrants living in Spanish territory is the most agile and exhaustive measure to guarantee that all people can face this health and economic crisis,” they said in a statement dated April 14. The number of illegal immigrants in Spain is estimated to be well over 800,000, according to the nationwide radio broadcaster COPE.

In the United Kingdom, Catholic leaders, on May 3, called on Prime Minister Boris Johnson to offer asylum seekers and other “insecure” immigrants the ability to live freely and work in the country during the coronavirus pandemic. Britain has up to 1.2 million illegal immigrants, a quarter of all those that have unlawfully entered Europe, according to the Pew Research Center.

Meanwhile, the Council of Europe’s Commissioner for Human Rights, Dunja Mijatović, called on European governments to release rejected asylum seekers and irregular migrants from detention due to the coronavirus. In a statement dated March 26, she wrote:

“In the face of the global Covid-19 pandemic, many member states have had to suspend forced returns of persons no longer authorized to stay on their territories, including so-called Dublin returns, and it is unclear when these might be resumed. Under human rights law, immigration detention for the purpose of such returns can only be lawful as long as it is feasible that return can indeed take place. This prospect is clearly not in sight in many cases at the moment….

“The release of the most vulnerable should be prioritized. Since the immigration detention of children, whether unaccompanied or with their families, is never in their best interest, they should be released immediately. The authorities of member states should also refrain from issuing new detention orders to persons who are unlikely to be removed in the near future.”

In Spain, where a coronavirus state of emergency was declared on March 14, the government has released thousands of illegal immigrants held in so-called Internment Centers for Foreigners (Centro de Internamiento de Extranjeros, CIE). Spanish law stipulates that migrants cannot be held in a CIE, a temporary holding facility prior to deportation, for more than 60 days. Because coronavirus travel bans have made deportations impossible, the Interior Ministry let them go. Many migrants have been sent to so-called Refugee Reception Centers (Centro de Acogida a Refugiados, CAR), where they will be provided with room and board for six months.

In Belgium, the government released several hundred migrants from detention centers. The Brussels Times reported:

“The 300 detainees, mainly men, were released from detention with an order to leave Belgium within 30 days. In such cases, the sans-papiers, as they are known, are not forcibly placed on a flight to their homeland, but simply allowed to go out of the front door of the detention center. It is to be expected that many will disappear into clandestinity. Since they are without papers, tracing them from now on will be difficult if not impossible.”

In the United Kingdom, the government released more than 700 migrants from Immigration Removal Centers (IRC) because they cannot be deported due to the coronavirus pandemic. Judicial tribunals forced the Home Office to release dozens of migrants despite fears that they could pose a risk to the public. “More than 40 countries to which the Home Office planned to deport them have either closed their borders or imposed travel restrictions, making deportation impossible,” according to The Telegraph.

The UK’s leniency appears to have sparked another wave of illegal immigration. Since the coronavirus lockdown began on March 23, nearly 900 people have illegally crossed the English Channel from France, according to Migration Watch UK. On May 8, border patrol officers stopped eight boats carrying 145 people, a record for a single day, according to the Home Office. More than 1,200 illegal immigrants are believed successfully to have crossed the English Channel illegally so far in 2020.

The National Crime Agency told Parliament that the aim of both migrants and smugglers is now to be “intercepted” by British authorities and taken to a UK port where a large majority of those arriving (possibly over 90%) will claim asylum.

“The biggest incentive for those attempting the dangerous Channel crossings is the knowledge that being picked up by a British Border Force vessel or managing to set foot on our soil provides a strong chance of a permanent stay,” according to Migration Watch UK.

On May 8, the German newspaper Die Welt reported on a leaked document from the European border protection agency, Frontex, which is bracing for a new influx of migrants at the border between Greece and Turkey once the Turkish government lifts its coronavirus restrictions:

“The restrictions on Covid-19 have been gradually lifted in most Aegean provinces, but not yet in Canakkale, Istanbul and Izmir. If freedom of movement is restored in these areas, massive movements of migrants towards the Greek-Turkish border can be expected.”

In an interview with Die Welt, the Interior Minister of Saarland, Klaus Bouillon (CDU), said that the German public would not look kindly on another wave of illegal immigration:

“The willingness and acceptance in the country to accept people has decreased. We probably would not be able to activate enough volunteers anymore. In addition, the absorption capacity is a big problem.

“There is great discontent among the population because everyone who arrives here immediately has many or even higher rights and rights to benefits or medical care than someone who has worked here for their entire life.

“There is great resentment and frustration, which I hear in conversation every day. Basic amounts of benefits are established by law. Even if someone throws away their passport and does not cooperate with the authorities, their benefits can be reduced only minimally.”

The German government continues to take in more migrants. The Chancellery recently announced that it was seeking a “coalition of the willing” from across Europe to take in children from refugee camps in Greece. The plan was to help 1,500 children identified as being particularly in need: unaccompanied children under the age of 14 or children in need of urgent medical assistance. The German government pledged to take in 350 children and stressed that its top priority was to rescue young girls. When the first flight carrying 47 children arrived in Hanover on April 18, only four were girls.

Writing for the German blog Die Achse des Guten (“The Axis of Good”), political commentator Anabel Schunke described the long-term problems facing Germany by allowing in millions of mostly uneducated males. In an essay titled, “Many Men and Few Women — The Problem with Immigration,” she wrote:

“It has been a while since the issue of immigration has been as heated as in recent days…. The reason for this was the admission of ‘unaccompanied minor refugees’ from Greece as agreed to by a ‘coalition of the willing.’ Yesterday, 47 of them landed in Hanover. Earlier, twelve youths had arrived in Luxembourg. In addition to Germany and Luxembourg, France, Ireland, Finland, Portugal and Croatia have also agreed to accept unaccompanied asylum seekers from the camps in Greece. A total of 1,500 children are to be flown out in this way. Germany alone has announced that it will accept between 350 and 500 of them….

“This number may seem insignificant compared to the refugee crisis of 2015/16 and what has happened since then in uncontrolled, illegal migration. It was said that the children were primarily seriously ill or girls. Most of them under the age of 14.

“As we know today, the reality is different, and the outrage is correspondingly great. The first images from Luxembourg suggested that things would not be much different in Germany. There was not a single girl among the twelve young people flown in. By contrast, ten boys from Afghanistan and two from Syria. Among the 47 unaccompanied persons who arrived in Hanover yesterday, there were only four girls….

“Such an admission of ‘unaccompanied minor refugees’ (UMF) is expensive. Depending on the region, a UMF costs the taxpayer between 5,000 and 7,000 euros per month. In Hesse, every unaccompanied minor costs 101,515 euros a year and thus just under 8,460 euros per month.

“Even if you take the lowest cost of 5,000 euros, this alone results in costs of 235,000 euros per month for the 47 minors who entered yesterday. This is not a trifle.

“The enormous costs that result from the fact that every social worker would like to have a piece of the cake and that that could be fundamentally questioned, especially in times of an impending economic crisis, is not our only problem.

“The proportion of male asylum seekers has been significantly higher than that of women in every age group since 2015. No fewer than 93% of the children and adolescents in the Greek refugee camps are male, and it can be assumed that the Interior Ministry was aware of this when, for general reassurance, it was announced that they would primarily take in the seriously ill and girls….

“Sixty-seven percent of asylum seekers between 18- to 25-years-old are male; 63.9% of those between 16- and 18-years are male; and 64.9% of those between 25- and 30-years are male…. If you add all the age groups, you get a share of over 50% for those under 30.

“Muslim countries currently have 300 million males under the age of 15. This is not a forecast, but already a reality. Scientists like Gunnar Heinsohn assume that a maximum of 100 million can obtain a position in the society of their home country. The remaining 200 million will try to emigrate or otherwise fight for their place.

“Religious, ideological fanaticism thrives on this breeding ground for young men who are ready to fight, which only serves as justification for their own struggle for a piece of the cake. So, what we see today in terms of crises and conflicts will not be less in the next 15 years, but probably more. Against this background, the migration flows we are experiencing today are only the beginning….

“Where there are many men with fewer women, there is a higher level of sexual frustration on all sides, which in turn leads to conflicts between locals and immigrants and leads to increased sexual assault and general hatred of women. Many young migrants are in constant contradiction between strict Islamic sexual morals and the sexual freedom of Europe. This immigration also influences the portrayal of women and the security of women living here. It is all the more tragic that it is precisely the women here who are largely in favor of this immigration. Perhaps the increasing loss of freedom and security among women living here will eventually lead to more empathy with the fate of tormented women in radical Islamic countries like Afghanistan. Maybe one day they will see that it does make a difference whether it is mostly boys and men or girls and women who come to us.

“If you look at the comment sections of German news sites, many citizens still cannot seem to get enough of the current wave of immigration. In any event, it will become interesting when the economic crisis has accelerated after the corona shutdown. It remains to be seen whether the current supporters of mass migration will still be willing to let their ‘moral’ superiority cost so much. We will find out after the corona crisis.”

END

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

 

6.Global Issues

 

NORWAY/NORWAY’S HUGE SOVEREIGN WEALTH FUND

The world’s largest sovereign wealth fund is dump $40 billion dollar in bonds and stocks to fund their gaping budget deficits

(zerohedge)

 

World’s Largest Sovereign Wealth Fund Is About To Dump $40 Billion In Bonds & Stocks

One of the world’s biggest piles of oil money is taking some profits and planning to dump nearly $40 billion of assets on the market in the coming months in what Bloomberg described as a “historic” sale.

As a uniquely Norwegian scandal simmers in Stockholm, Norway is planning to liquidate $37 billion – 382 billion kroner – from its sovereign wealth fund, which is overseen by a manager hired by the country’s central bank .

The decision could create serious problems for analysts still calling for the “V” shaped (or possibly “Z” shaped) rebound for markets, at least.

The unprecedented sale, which was announced in Norway’s revised budget for 2020, is >4x the previous record set in 2016. The sale, which is being undertaken to help Norway plug a gaping budget hole caused by the twin headwinds of the coronavirus and ensuing collapse in oil prices, “exposes the scale of the economic damage done” to Northern Europe’s largest oil producer.

The withdrawal is “considerably more” than the dividend and interest payments collected by the fund each year (it invests in a range of asset types).

“It’s obviously an historic event,” SEB Chief Strategist Erica Dalsto said. “But we’re also in a crisis that lacks historical parallels. This illustrates the double-whammy that’s hit the Norwegian economy, with repercussions from both containment measures and the oil-price collapse.”

However, equity bulls can breath a sigh of relief – for now, at least – as Bloomberg claims the selling will focus on the central bank’s bond portfolio.

But of course, that could in turn put even more pressure on emerging market economies and corporates, as sales such as these drive up interest rates.

Until 2016, Norway’s petroleum-related income could more than cover its annual budget deficits, creating a generous subsidy for tax payers that has helped finance Norway’s generous welfare state.

However, in 2016 and 2017, deposits were replaced by withdrawals as petroleum revenue dwindled. And thanks to the movements in commodity markets witnessed since the beginning of the year, 2020 might be a turning point. Though recent tweets by President Trump offered a glimmer of hope.

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Crude Oil prices going up as Saudi Arabia cuts production levels. Our great Energy Companies, with millions of JOBS, are starting to look very good again. At the same time, gasoline prices at record lows (like a big Tax Cut). The BEST of all Worlds. “Transition To Greatness”

END

7. OIL ISSUES

CFTC Warns Traders Oil Prices Can Turn Negative Again

With just one week left until the expiration of the June WTI contract, whose open interest is still a whopping 270K contracts equivalent to 270 million barrels that may soon require a physical delivery spot…

… and some traders getting flashbacks to the catastrophic oil price crash on April 20, today the CFTC poured gasoline on the smouldering fire when it warned that oil futures contracts could again trade with negative prices during the coronavirus pandemic.

As Bloomberg and Dnyuz reports, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission will advise exchanges to monitor their markets and remind them to “maintain rules to provide for the exercise of emergency authority”, including the power to “suspend or curtail trading in any contract” if markets become disorderly, according to an advisory notice to be released on Wednesday.

“We are issuing this advisory in the wake of unusually high volatility and negative pricing experienced in the May 2020 West Texas Intermediate (WTI), Light Sweet Crude Oil Futures contract on April 20,” says the eight-page advisory signed by the CFTC’s heads of market oversight, clearing and risk, and swap dealer and intermediary oversight.

Clearing houses “should prepare for the potential that certain contracts may experience significant price volatility, and that negative pricing is a possibility”, the advisory said adding that “we are issuing this advisory in the wake of unusually high volatility and negative pricing experienced in the May 2020 physically-delivered WTI contract, and related reference contracts.”

The alert comes after the US benchmark West Texas Intermediate oil contract plunged below $0 a barrel last month for the first time, as buyers searched for places to store a glut of oil.

The WTI contract for June delivery is scheduled to expire next Tuesday, raising the prospect of a repeat of the chaotic final two trading days in the May oil contract, which settled at minus $37.63 a barrel on April 20.

The move caused losses for countless retail traders and at least one futures broker, and sparked widespread criticism of an oil benchmark referenced by drillers, refiners, consumers and investors.A senior CFTC official said its notice applied to all contracts, not just oil, and did not represent a forecast that negative oil prices would return. “We are not predicting the market. We’re just suggesting planning,” the official said.

Brokers “should prepare for the potential that certain contracts may experience significant price volatility and, possibly, negative pricing,” the CFTC said.

Connecticut-based Interactive Brokers disclosed a $104m loss as it compensated customers who were stuck in last month’s trading around the May WTI contract. GH Financials, another broker, has since required all traders to exit front-month energy contracts five days before expiry.

Exchanges list futures contracts and operate electronic trading platforms, while clearing houses pool margin and other collateral to guarantee trades. In WTI futures, both the exchange and clearing house are operated by CME Group, the world’s largest exchange company based in Chicago.

CME first warned traders and brokers of the prospect of negative oil prices on April 8. It reiterated the possibility a week later. Intercontinental Exchange, which lists oil contracts in London, has also enabled its systems to permit negative prices.

Terry Duffy, CME chief executive, told CNBC last month that his company worked with regulators for two weeks before announcing that negative oil prices would be allowed. “So this was no secret that this was coming at us,” he said.

The CME and ICE clearing houses have also been preparing for negative pricing by switching the way they calculate pricing for options on the WTI benchmark.

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings WEDNESDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.0869 UP .0024 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS//CORONAVIRUS//PANDEMIC// /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /ALL RED

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 106.96 DOWN 0.210 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2306   UP   0.0054  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/

 

USA/CAN 1.4015 DOWN .0066 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  WEDNESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE BY 24 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.0869 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 6.49 POINTS OR 0.22% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 65.38 POINTS OR 0.27%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0,30%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 65.38 POINTS OR 0.27%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 6.49 POINTS OR 0.22%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.30% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 99.43  POINTS OR 0.49%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1707.40

silver:$15.58-

Early WEDNESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 0.67% !!! DOWN 3 IN POINTS from MONDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 1.36 DOWN 2  IN BASIS POINTS from TUESDAY night.

USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 99.75 DOWN 18 CENT(S) from  MONDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers WEDNESDAY MORNING

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And now your closing  WEDNESDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.84% DOWN 8 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.00%  DOWN 1   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.75%//DOWN 5 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:1,80 DOWN 8 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 105 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.53% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 2.33% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR WEDNESDAY

Closing currency crosses for WEDNESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0819  DOWN     .0027 or 27 basis points

USA/Japan: 106.98 DOWN .193 OR YEN UP 20  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2231 DOWN .0021 POUND DOWN 21  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 15 basis points to 1.4098

 

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The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 7.0924    ON SHORE  (DOWN)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  7.1105  (YUAN DOWN)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA: 6.9732 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.00%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 5 IN basis points from TUESDAY at 0.64 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 1.33 DOWN 4 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 100.23 UP 29  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for WEDNESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 90.72  1.51%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 276.84 POINTS OR 2.86%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 127.55 POINTS 2.85%

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 131.30 POINTS or 1.94%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 375.88 POINTS OR 2.14%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 25.34 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 29.31 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE FALLS:    74.06  THE CROSS HIGHER BY 0.43 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE LOWER BY 43 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.53 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  25.64//

 

 

BRENT :  29.37

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 0.66.. down 4 basis points…

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 1/35…down 3 basis points..

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.0818 ( down 28   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:107.02 DOWN .147 (YEN UP 15 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 100.21 UP 28 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.2235 DOWN 22  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 6.9756

 

 

the Russian rouble 74.01   DOWN 0.08 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( DOWN 8 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.4100 DOWN 17 BASIS pts

 

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.53%

 

The Dow closed DOWN 516.81 POINTS OR 2.17%

 

NASDAQ closed DOWN 139.38 POINTS OR 1.55%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  35.28 CLOSED UP 2.24

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 0.424%//libor dropping like a stone

LIBOR/OIS:  .364%

TED SPREAD: 3 MONTH VS LIBOR:  .289%

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

Stocks & Bond Yields Tumble On Beijing Blowback, A Fearful Fed, & Billionaire Alarm Bells

For the second day in a row, it was not pretty in equity market land…

Small Caps are worst on the week, followed by Trannies with Nasdaq best but still down hard…

The mega-techs begin to catch down to the “median” stock…

Source: Bloomberg

Three main themes stood out that spoiled the promise of a v-shaped recovery!…

Billionaires are ringing alarm bells – Druck, Tepper, & Lasry – the market’s way overvalued and hopes of (and pricing in) a v-shaped recovery are a fallacy.

Stocks are decoupled from reality…

Source: Bloomberg

Valuation is extreme to say the least (despite the plunge)…

Source: Bloomberg

Trump didn’t like their view…

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

When the so-called “rich guys” speak negatively about the market, you must always remember that some are betting big against it, and make a lot of money if it goes down. Then they go positive, get big publicity, and make it going up. They get you both ways. Barely legal?

A Fearful Fed Chair – Powell warned of a prolonged recession but said no negative rates… we promise! No really, we really really mean it this time… but the economy is really in a bad way and unless we get more fiscal we are cornered… into maybe cutting rates negative..

The market refuses to give up hope for negative rates…

Source: Bloomberg

Which is concurrently crushing bank stocks..

Source: Bloomberg

Beijing blowback is building – China banned Aussie beef imports after questioning COVID source and now has indirectly threatened “punishment measures” after US pension fund pulls China investment and GOP pushes ‘Sue China’ bill over COVID reparations.

For now, it appears vol is striking US more than China… for now!

Source: Bloomberg

The ‘Virus Fear’-Trade has been soaring despite the broad indices recent gains…

Source: Bloomberg

And the most directly affected sectors from the virus were a bloodbath today as hope for “normal” fade…

Source: Bloomberg

Of course the answer from the talking heads, asset-gatherers, and commission-takers…

FANG Stocks fell for the 2nd day in a row…

Source: Bloomberg

Riding The Fed’s largesse on long-momo has suddenly failed – the last two days have been the biggest drop in long-momentum since mid-March…

Source: Bloomberg

And other cyclically-positive quant factors faded notably…

Source: Bloomberg

The Dow is back below its 50% crash retracement level…

Dow and Small Caps pushed down towards key technical levels…

VIX surged back above 35…

And the VIX term structure notably inverted…

Source: Bloomberg

It would seem that The Fed can’t save HY bonds everyday (HYG tumbled today and LQD rolled over from a pop open)..

Source: Bloomberg

The yield curve was lower on the day with the long-end outperforming…

Source: Bloomberg

The yield curve notably flattened…

Source: Bloomberg

Another v-shaped recovery in the dollar today…

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos limped higher once again today…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold jumped notably today as Powell spoke…

Gold in yuan rallied…

Source: Bloomberg

Oil prices were volatile once again with OPEC demand cuts and EIA inventory draws…

 

Finally, where’s the beef?

Source: Bloomberg

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/this morning///USA

NIRP on hold for a while…

Powell Says “Fed Not Looking At Negative Rates” Reversing Dovish Kneejerk Reaction

Update: and there it is – after failing to mention negative rates in his prepared remarks, Powell responded to a question from Adam Posen, saying that the FOMC’s view on negative rates has not changed and even though Powell knows “there are fans of negative rates, evidence of effectiveness of negative rates very mixed” and as a result “negative rates is not something we are looking at.”

As a result, the “Fed intends to continue using tools it has already tried.” Powell’s comment immediately reversed the initial kneejerk reaction in the market which was surprised there was no mention of NIRP in the initial remarks, and promptly sent gold lower after an initial spike…

… with the dollar and 10Y yields both rebounding from session lows.

Viraj Patel@VPatelFX

Powell to negative rates for now

Embedded video

Of course, this is the same Fed that just two months ago never expected its balance sheet would be anywhere close to where it is now, so while Powell has closed the door on NIRP for now, it will be time to revisit this topic after the next market crash.

* * *

Powell was widely expected to address the historic advent of negative rates priced in by the market to halt the market from pricing in any further NIRP in either 2021 or late 2020, so as to avoid disappointing the market later by saying NIRP won’t happen and implicitly tightening financial conditions. However, to the market’s surprise, Powell has so far failed to do that, at least in his prepared remarks.

The result was instant, with the dollar tumbling to fresh session lows…

… 10Y yields tumbling…

… gold surging…

… and most ominous of all, traders once again pricing in negative rates for Jan 2021, which were held at bay after yesterday’s barrage of Fed speakers who pushed back against NIRP, but Powell’s failure to address the topic has clearly awoken at PIRP (opposite of NIRP) vigilantes, who will now push the Fed to see just how far they can go with negative rates.

Powell better address NIRP during the Q&A or all hell will break loose in the Eurodollar strip.

end

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

Stocks Stumble After US Retirement Fund Delays Transfer To Fund With Chinese Companies, Abbott COVID Test Stumbles

Just hours after Abbott says U.S. FDA has issued Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) for the company’s molecular test for the novel coronavirus for use on its new Alinity m molecular laboratory instrument, Bloomberg headlines reporting that NYU data shows the Abbott Labs Test may yield false negatives (up to one third of COVID-19 cases missed).

The data is reportedly “preliminary” and not reviewed, but still – missing one-third of positives seems like something any “review” won’t change too much.

This sent ABT prices lower…

Meanwhile, the US retirement investment board said has delayed the transition of USD 40bln international fund to track the MSCI index, including controversial Chinese companies, according to a statement, citing COVID-19 and new board nominations as being behind the delay

While this is a delay not a cancellation, it could still have an impact on Chinese companies, among others from the delay.

Also worth noting, overnight China’s Foreign Ministry, on President Trump’s efforts to push TSP fund to halt planned investments, said “wanton placement of obstructions on US investors runs counter to economic law”, suggesting more escalation in the feud between the US and China are imminent.

The double-whammy of negative news took the steam out of the broader market:

And of course, all the market can do is scream for “moar” from The Fed – in this case – negative rates are back…

So much for Powell’s desperate jawboning – the market will not be disappointed!!

END

ii)Market data/USA

Producer prices fall despite surging food costs.  Energy prices collapsed which caused the fall

(zerohedge)

PPI Exposes Real-Life Under Lockdown – Booze Costs Soar As Gas Prices Plunge

After the collapse in consumer prices (surging food costs offset by a collapse in energy costs), producer prices are expected to follow suit but actually printed far worse than expected. Headline PPI fell 1.3% MoM – a record and notably worse than the 0.5% drop expected, plunging YoY into deflation…

Source: Bloomberg

Even ex food, energy, and trade, PPI fell0.9% MoM (drastically worse than the 0.1% drop expected).

The index for final demand goods fell 3.3 percent in April, the largest decline since the series began in December 2009. Most of the broad-based decrease is attributable to prices for final demand energy, which fell 19.0 percent. The indexes for final demand goods less foods and energy and for final demand foods moved down 0.4 percent and 0.5 percent, respectively.

Two-thirds of the April decrease in the index for final demand goods can be traced to prices for gasoline, which dropped 56.6 percent. This is the largest decrease since the series began in February 1947. The indexes for jet fuel, diesel fuel, basic organic chemicals, home heating oil, and corn also moved lower. In contrast, prices for beef and veal rose 12.6 percent. The indexes for distilled and bottled liquor (excluding brandy) and for electric power also increased.

Leading the April decline in the index for final demand services, prices for portfolio management fell 12.0 percent. The indexes for airline passenger services; traveler accommodation services; services related to securities brokerage and dealing (partial); hospital outpatient care; and apparel, footwear, and accessories retailing also moved lower. In contrast, margins for automotive fuels and lubricants retailing rose 41.6 percent. The indexes for inpatient care and for chemicals and allied products wholesaling also advanced.

So – summing up the lockdown – gas prices plunged as demand for booze sent prices soaring.

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

Collateratized Loan Obligations (CLO) which where a fraud in 2009 has reinvented itself during these past few years.  Now two giant funds are liquidated this garbage

(zerohedge)

In Unprecedented Move, Two Fund Giants Liquidate CLO Warehouses

Yesterday we laid out how the magic of modern monetary alchemy (not to be confused with the blunt brain trauma that is the magic money tree of helicopter money) works, by showing how a CLO takes 96% junk rates loans and by repackaging this portfolio, or “warehousing” it into a CLO, the product were tranched bonds of which 87% were rated investment grade.

And while in theory this works by “diversifying” away individual credit risk, in practice the whole exercise is nothing but smoke and mirrors which crumbles the moment an adverse systemic event – such as a global viral pandemic – reveals that the investment grade emperor is really wearing junk-rated clothes.

Of course, it is the very process of warehousing that made all this possible and resulted in record demand for leveraged loans for the past few years, with CLOs becoming the biggest source of demand for the $1 trillion leveraged loan market, because as we concluded in our article, this CLO sleight of hand “worked splendidly as long as nobody questioned the “alchemy” behind the biggest magic trick Wall Street pulled in the past decade. Alas, alchemy does not exist, and just like all those buying “gold” from carnival charlatans eventually realized they were holding on to lead, so all those who naively believed they had purchased investment grade securities are about to learn the hard way that what they really owned was, aptly-named, junk.”

Fast forward to today, when investors finally appear to be asking what good are CLOs, and what is the point of tranching cash flows, if virtually all underlying junk loans will soon end up – true to their name – in default, with no cash flows left to tranche.

Bloomberg reports that two funds that aimed to bundle leveraged loans into bonds decided instead to liquidate the loans they had bought, a rare step reflecting just how the pandemic has cooled the market for securities known as collateralized loan obligations.

At a time of massive downgrades of both underlying loans and resulting CLO bonds, Steele Creek Investment Management and AXA Investment Managers both sold off loans they had planned to package into CLOs, according to Bloomberg citing people familiar with the matter. The funds had paid for the loans using temporary lines of credit known as warehouses.

With leveraged loan prices plunged to their lowest level in more than a decade in March, CLOs have been left scrambling to find buyers for their securities, and as a result Steele Creek and AXA Investment Managers decided to instead liquidate their warehouses, a move that some investors fear may become increasingly common, and could push loan prices even lower.

Steele Creek, a Moelis Asset Management company, put a $177 million warehouse loan portfolio up for sale on May 4, the people said. A spokesperson for Steele Creek declined to comment. AXA’s asset management arm sold a warehouse for a CLO it was arranging with Citigroup, said the people, asking not to be identified discussing a private matter.

As Bloomberg notes, selling loans held in warehouses may make more sense now after prices have recovered somewhat from their March levels amid growing Federal Reserve support for credit markets, making potential losses relatively manageable, investors said.

In keeping with the intricacies of structured credit, a CLO warehouse is often funded in part by outside investors who bear the initial pain if the loans go bad, known as the first loss, similar to the equity tranche of the final CLO itself. They usually choose to roll their investment into the riskiest securities of a CLO when the deal is ready to close, known as the equity portion. AXA Investment Management’s decision was made in conjunction with, and in the best interests of the first loss provider, according to Yannick Le Serviget, the firm’s global head of leveraged loans and private debt. AXA IM declined to comment on specifics of the transaction.

“Given the large repricing of the loan market, specifically good quality portfolios, it did make sense to take advantage of the upward pricing,” Le Serviget said.

While such liquidations are extremely rare, fears of CLO warehouse unwinds emerged in March once pandemic fears started hammering corporate debt markets broadly. The, as we reported last month, ratings firms downgraded a wave of loans as the pandemic weighed on companies’ sales. The average loan price plummeted to around 76 cents on the dollar in late March, before rebounding to around 87 cents.

What makes the liquidation scenario especially concerning is that most CLO warehouses aren’t forced to sell loans if prices fall below particular levels, and since the facilities usually mature in 12 to 18 months, fund managers and investors have breathing room to decide whether to liquidate or go through with the CLO. Unwinding a facility at depressed prices could force some CLO investors to bear losses, making them less inclined to push for an unwind.

But investors in the CLO who are among the first to take losses might become more inclined to liquidate a warehouse if i) the loans become impaired, or if ii) they see little scope for price recovery over the medium term. In some cases it may also make more economic sense not to proceed with a transaction if there is a buyer for the loans in the warehouse, investors say. Banks may also pressure CLO managers to end deals if assets are sitting in a warehouse for too long.

* * *

The stunning move by Axa and Steele Creek may explain why on Tuesday, the Fed revised its Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility to allow CLOs that hold a broader range of leveraged loans to be used as collateral. According to a Fed statement, the central bank will now accept new AAA CLOs with leveraged loans, including refinanced loans, that priced as far back as January 2019, compared to the previous term sheet where eligible CLO could only hold newly-originated loans.

Still, the Fed’s involvement is largely superficial to the CLO market which until now had not benefited much from the central bank’s effort to boost credit liquidity: as Bloomberg notes, the terms still require eligible CLOs be static vehicles wherein managers can’t actively trade the loans underpinning the deals, a structure that makes up only a small portion of the market. “It’s not going to open up the floodgates, but it can have some measured effects,” said Gregg Jubin, a partner at Cadwalader. “This looks certainly better than the first iteration.”

It is hardly a coincidence that the Fed announcement comes just as a warehouse was liquidated. According to Jubin, the changes may benefit existing CLO warehouses that hold qualifying loans. On the other hand, some pointed out to the prohibitive interest rate demanded by the Fed under TALF , which will be 150 bps over 30-day average SOFR, making the facility quite expensive .

It’s “a positive sign for the market that the look back for eligible collateral extends back to the beginning of 2019 and also includes refinancings since that time, as is the fact that the Fed appears to have taken into consideration certain detailed aspects of how the CLO market operates,” said Nick Robinson, a partner at Allen & Overy LLP. And while this may be good news for investors in recent AAA CLOs tranches – mostly Japanese retirees – everyone else, i.e., all those who hold to AA and lower rated tranches, remain in the cold and will have to wait for the next crash in hopes the Fed expands the scope of TALF again, or else have no choice but to sell now that the AXAs of the world have suggested this is as good as it will get.

END

“Worse Than 2008” – American Pension Funds Report Record Losses In Q1

 

Last month, Mitch McConnell shocked investors and infuriated several colleagues when he mentioned during a radio interview with a conservative talk show host that he would prefer giving states the ability to file for bankruptcy protection before allowing federal coronavirus money to bail out underfunded pensions.

McConnell’s critics exploded with rage, and conservative finance types were deeply chagrined, judging by their reactions on social media. But as anybody who has followed Zero Hedge’s coverage of the simmering national pension crisis should at least understand the point that the GOP Congressional leader was trying to make.

Just as Illinois was becoming a ‘hot spot’ for the coronavirus thanks to early signs of domestic transmission in Chicago, some pension industry trackers warned investors to ‘watch’ Illinois.

And according to some of the earliest data on how the March market collapses impacted these funds, it’s starting to look like – if anything – analysts underestimated the severity of the blow.

And now, just as the great American socialist revival has convinced teachers that they deserve more pay and better benefits (despite the fact that retired teachers keep drawing a paycheck until they die on top of social security), inspiring teachers strikes like those in W.Va, Kentucky and Oklahoma, states are facing up to the unavoidable reality that they will need to cut benefits for state employees.

Public pension plans lost a median 13.2% in the three months ended March 31,according to Wilshire Trust Universe Comparison Service data released Tuesday, slightly more than in the fourth quarter of 2008. March’s stock market plummet led to the biggest one-quarter drop in the 40 years the firm has been tracking.

“It was a horrible quarter for all public funds,”said Chicago Teachers’ Pension Fund Investment Chief Angela Miller-May.
Stocks bounced back in April, making up a significant chunk of the losses. But absent a full and speedy recovery, pension losses are poised to drive up already-burdensome retirement costs for governments.

“There will be a lot of pressure to cut benefits,”said Don Boyd, co-director of the State and Local Government Finance Project at the University at Albany’s Rockefeller College.

State and local governments “are trying to figure out how to not cut school aid too deeply, not cut Medicaid too deeply, not raise taxes,” Boyd said. “Pension contributions are pretty far down the list of things they want to pay for.”

And as bad as this looks, WSJ warns that the situation at most funds is probably even more dire.

In one sign of how high the stakes are for public pensions, Jack Ehnes, chief executive of the California State Teachers’ Retirement System for the past 18 years, said in March he would postpone his planned September retirement until June 2021, in part to help navigate through the pandemic at the fund, which held $227 billion as of March 31.

As bad as the first-quarter returns were, they likely don’t show the full extent of the pension losses because reports on the value of private equity, real estate, infrastructure and other private assets often arrive one quarter late.

“Most of the conversations that we’re having with our real-estate managers is what percent of rent were they able to collect? What does occupancy and leasing look like going forward?” said Ms. Miller-May of the Chicago Teachers’ Pension Fund.

Pension checks come from a combination of money set aside by government employers, money from employee paychecks, and investment returns earned on that money. When investment returns fall short, it typically falls to governments to allocate more of their revenues to make up the balance.

Executive Director Sandy Matheson of the nearly $15 billion Maine Public Employees Retirement System projects that the state’s annual pension contribution will rise to $927 million from $808 million if stocks fall back to March 31 levels by the time the pension ends its fiscal year on June 30.

Of course, states don’t presently have the power to file for bankruptcy, just like the federal government can’t file for bankruptcy. Changing such a law would probably be a massive self-inflicted blow, as it would undermine the full faith and credit of the US. Arguably, the country is already on the path to financial ruin; allowing states to declare bankruptcy would more or less seal America’s fate as a future failed state. But the pension issue shows why McConnell in particular might be more amendable to state bankruptcy filings: His home state, Kentucky, has one of the most dangerously underfunded pension systems in the country, a theme we’ve touched on before.

At least one of its funds spends virtually all the money it takes in every year on paying out benefits (leaving nothing for those who are contributing to the fund right now). 

In Kentucky, home to some of the nation’s worst-funded state pension plans, state senators in mid-March approved a proposal to make $1 billion worth of teacher pension contributions contingent on an overhaul of the teacher pension plan, but the legislature ultimately rejected the idea. Two years ago, the previous governor’s push to cut teacher pensions sparked demonstrations by teachers at the state capitol.

[…]

Another Kentucky pension fund for state workers in nonhazardous jobs pays out in benefits almost all of the $1 billion it gets from the legislature every year.

Retirees in the plan, which has been changed for new workers, earn 80% of their pay after 40 years of service and also receive health insurance. The average pay is about $41,000. After the past quarter, David Eager, the executive director, said he is a little less hopeful that investment returns will help build the fund back up.

Even before the crisis, when the economy was doing great and stocks were massively up on the decade, pension funds were still in trouble. And after a decade of trying to goose returns by going all-in on stocks, a situation like what PTJ described in a recent investing paper would literally render most public pensions insolvent by 2030 as US equities enter a secular decline.

Even before the record first-quarter losses, public pension plans were $4.1 trillion short of the $8.9 trillion they will need to cover promised future benefits, according to the Federal Reserve.

Decades of overoptimistic return assumptions, insufficient pension-fund contributions and lengthening lifespans created massive shortfalls in public pension funds that the 11-year bull market didn’t cure.

Over the past decade, public pensions had ramped up stockholdings and other risky investments in an effort to meet aggressive return targets that average around 7%, according to a survey by the National Association of State Retirement Administrators.

For the 20 years ended March 31, public pension-plan returns have fallen short of that target, however, returning a median 5.2% according to Wilshire TUCS.

Since the last recession 10 years ago, governments around the country have jacked up their yearly pension contributions and slashed benefits for new hires, sometimes shifting the employees to 401(k)-type plans that don’t promise more than investments can earn. Some pension benefits promised to workers, such as cost-of-living increases, also have been cut, but courts have generally blocked cuts for people who have already been hired.

And while markets rebounded in April, there are still ~2 months left in the quarter for things to go awry. And thanks to the collapse in employment, governments won’t be able to rely on as many employees contributing to the system. Leaving statehouses on the hook for the money as judges continue to rule that the benefits promised to workers for the most part must be delivered.

end

iv) Swamp commentaries)

Flynn Judge Causes Bizarre Delay After DOJ Moves To Dismiss Case

After the Justice Department moved to drop the case against former National Security Adviser Michael Flynn last week, the judge in the case signaled in a filing that he will allow outside parties to file “amicus” filings, also known as “friend-of-the-court” filings, which allow a non-party to a case to weigh in.

What makes it bizarre is that the Judge, Emmet Sullivan, denied this type of third party intervention 24 times during the case – yet has suddenly changed his mind after an activist group which calls itself the “Watergate Prosecutors” moved to file an amicus brief, according to the Washington Examiner.

 

Judge Emmet Sullivan

Flynn’s lawyer, former federal prosecutor Sidney Powell, filed a six-page motion Tuesday evening slamming the decision, writing: “This Court has consistently — on 24 previous occasions — summarily refused to permit any third party to inject themselves or their views into this case,” adding “the proposed amicus brief has no place in this court.”

“No rule allows the filing, and the self-proclaimed collection of ‘Watergate Prosecutors’ has no cognizable special interest,” the filing continues. “Separation of powers forecloses their appearance here. Only the Department of Justice and the defense can be heard.”

Powell told the Washington Examiner that the judge had denied all previous third-party interventions “until DOJ moves to dismiss and begins to expose the wrongdoing of the Obama administration.”

Flynn’s lawyers have touted recently released FBI records as being exculpatory evidence that was concealed from the defense team. The documents suggest that now-fired FBI agent Peter Strzok and the FBI’s “7th floor” leadership stopped the bureau from closing its investigation into Flynn in early January 2017, even though investigators had uncovered “no derogatory information,” after intercepts of Flynn’s communications with a Russian envoy emerged. Emails from later that month show Strzok, along with then-FBI lawyer Lisa Page and several others, sought out ways to continue investigating Flynn, including by deploying the Logan Act. –Washington Examiner

On Tuesday, Sullivan wrote in his order that “given the current posture of this case, the Court anticipates that individuals and organizations will seek leave of the Court to file amicus curiae briefs,” adding – while quoting Roger Stone judge Amy Berman Jackson (there’s a clue) in saying that “while there may be individuals with an interest in this matter, a criminal proceeding is not a free for all.”

“Accordingly, at the appropriate time, the Court will enter a Scheduling Order governing the submission of any amicus curiae briefs.

Earlier in the case, however, Sullivan wrote of similar amicus brief requests: “The Federal Rules of Criminal Procedure do not provide for intervention by third parties in criminal cases … Options exist for a private citizen to express his views about matters of public interest, but the Court’s docket is not an available option,” adding “the docket is the record of official proceedings related to criminal charges brought by the United States against an individual who has pled guilty to a criminal offense” and “for the benefit of the parties in this case and the public, the docket must be maintained in an orderly fashion and in accordance with court rules.”

Apparently that’s not the case now that Flynn is out of hot water with the DOJ.

The public docket shows that Sullivan shot down multiple more amicus filing requests in January, February, March, and November of 2019.

Powell told the judge that “this travesty of justice has already consumed three or more years of an innocent man’s life” and that “no further delay should be tolerated.” She said the case should be dismissed immediately. –Washington Examiner

In short…

end

Paul Manafort Freed From Prison, Will Serve Rest Of Sentence Under Home Confinement

While a federal judge throws up new roadblocks in the exoneration of Michael Flynn, who was allowed by the DoJ to withdraw from his guilty plea before the charges against him were to be dropped, the lawyer of ex-Trump Campaign Executive Paul Manafort has confirmed that his client has been released from prison to serve out the rest of his sentence in home confinement.

This news will almost certainly infuriate Trump’s political opponents, who have slammed the Barr DoJ for appearing to bend ‘the rule of law’ to the advantage of the president and those in his circle. However, Manafort is simply receiving the same treatment given to thousands of other inmates – some of whom have gone on to commit violent crimes.

Here’s more from CBS News:

Former Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort was transferred Wednesday to home confinement after he requested release because of the threat COVID-19 poses to his health, his lawyer, Kevin Downing, confirmed to CBS News.

CBS News was told that early Wednesday morning two family members including his wife picked up Manafort at LCI Loretto, the low-security federal prison in Pennsylvania where he has been serving his term.

In March 2019, Manafort was sentenced to a total of 90 months – or 7.5 years – in two separate cases involving tax and bank fraud and related charges.

In March 2019, Manafort was sentenced to a total of 90 months — or 7.5 years — in two separate cases involving tax and bank fraud and related charges.

On April 13, his attorneys, Manafort attorneys Todd Blanche and Downing, wrote a letter to the director of the BoP  and the warden at Federal Correctional Institution Loretto, where Manafort was imprisoned, to request an immediate transfer to home confinement “to serve the remainder of his sentence or, alternatively, for the duration of the on-going COVID-19 pandemic.” They argued their client is 71 years old and suffers from myriad health issues, including “high blood pressure, liver disease, and respiratory ailments.”

END

would you expect anything less from John Brennan?  He concealed a high quality intelligence that Russia wanted Hillary Clinton to win

(zerohedge)

John Brennan Concealed ‘High-Quality’ Intelligence That Russia Wanted Hillary Clinton To Win: Report

Former CIA director John Brennan suppressed intelligence which indicated that Russia wanted Hillary Clinton to win because “she was a known quantity,” vs. the unpredictable Donald Trump, according to Fox News‘ Ed Henry.

During a Tuesday night discussion with Tucker Carlson, Henry said that Brennan “also had intel saying, actually, Russia wanted Hillary Clinton to win because she was a known quantity, she had been secretary of state, and Vladimir Putin’s team thought she was more malleable, while candidate Donald Trump was unpredictable.”

Perhaps Russian President Vladimir Putin has fond memories of the time Bill Clinton hung out at his ‘private homestead’ during the same trip where he collected a $500,000 payday for a speech at a Moscow bank, right before the Uranium One deal was approved.

And as Breitbart‘s Joel Pollak notes, Henry’s claim backs up a similar allegation by former National Security Council chief of staff Fred Fleitz, who said on April 22:

House Intelligence Committee staff told me that after an exhaustive investigation reviewing intelligence and interviewing intelligence officers, they found that Brennan suppressed high-quality intelligence suggesting that Putin actually wanted the more predictable and malleable Clinton to win the 2016 election.

Instead, the Brennan team included low-quality intelligence that failed to meet intelligence community standards to support the political claim that Russian officials wanted Trump to win, House Intelligence Committee staff revealed. They said that CIA analysts also objected to including that flawed, substandard information in the assessment.

Fox‘s Henry said that he has obtained independent confirmation of the pro-Clinton Russia claim made by Fleitz.

Brennan’s concealment of this key information was yet another link in the chain of the Obama administration’s plot to smear Donald Trump as a Russian asset – a hoax supported by the Clinton-funded Steele dossier, which the FBI knew was Russian disinformation (or, more likely, Steele’s Russophobic fantasies) before they used it as a predicate to spy on Trump aide Carter Page during the 2016 election.

And now, Brennan is a contributor on MSNBC. How fitting.

end
The list of people that unmasked details on Flynn vs foreign dignitary.
Catherine Herridge..

Breaking – Catherine Herridge is posting Flynn Obama unmasking documents right now!

Posted by Kane on May 13, 2020 3:10 pm

NEWS JUNKIES – CHECK OUT OUR AWESOME HOMEPAGE, UPDATED 18 HOURS PER DAY!

Ambassador to Italy John R. Phillips is on the list…

 

 

 

Clapper, Brennan, Samantha Power, Jacob Lew, John Phillips…

Catherine Herridge

@CBS_Herridge

SCOOP @CBSNews obtains @RichardGrenell notification to congress declassified “unmasking list” Flynn between late 2016 and January 2017

View image on TwitterView image on TwitterView image on Twitter

 

 

Reaction on twitter…

 

 

Catherine Herridge

@CBS_Herridge

unmasking docs include these key details “Each individual was an authorized recipient of the original report and the unmasking was approved through NSA’s standard process..While the principals are identified below, we cannot confirm they saw the unmasked information.”

View image on Twitter

 

Catherine Herridge

@CBS_Herridge

SCOOP @CBSNews obtains @RichardGrenell notification to congress declassified “unmasking list” Flynn between late 2016 and January 2017 – Read 3 pages provided by NSA here

View image on TwitterView image on TwitterView image on Twitter
end
(zerohedge)

Unmasking The Unmaskers: Biden, Brennan, Clapper, & Powers Named In DNI Just-Released List

Update (1635ET): It did not take long for the liberalati to try and distract from what just dropped and to turn their cognitive dissonance up to ’11’. None other than Ben Rhodes quickly ranted:

“The unconfirmed, acting DNI using his position to criminalize routine intelligence work to help re-elect the president and obscure Russian intervention in our democracy would normally be the scandal here…”

To which The Wall Street Journal’s Kimberley Strassel rebuked rather eloquently…

“This is the best they’ve got–to complain about transparency.”

But perhaps most notable is the fact the unmasking involved here occurred BEFORE the Kislyak call that was supposedly triggered the move against Flynn et al.

Another riddle we are sure Messrs. Biden et al. will quickly mumble-splain.

*  *  *

A list of Obama administration officials who participated in the ‘unmasking’ of former National Security Adviser Michael Flynn has been released by Sens. Ron Johnson and Chuck Grassley. The names include former FBI Director James Comey, former CIA Director John Brennan, former Director of National Intelligence James Clapper, and former Vice President Joe Biden.

Catherine Herridge

@CBS_Herridge

SCOOP @CBSNews obtains @RichardGrenell notification to congress declassified “unmasking list” Flynn between late 2016 and January 2017 – Read 3 pages provided by NSA here

View image on TwitterView image on TwitterView image on Twitter

Catherine Herridge

@CBS_Herridge

unmasking docs include these key details “Each individual was an authorized recipient of the original report and the unmasking was approved through NSA’s standard process..While the principals are identified below, we cannot confirm they saw the unmasked information.”

View image on Twitter

The revelation comes after Biden was caught trying to lie about his knowledge of the Flynn investigation during a Tuesday morning interview – changing course after host George Stephanopoulos pointed out his documented attendance at a January 5 Oval Office meeting in which key members of the Obama administration discussed the ongoing investigation into Flynn’s intercepted contacts with the Russian ambassador.

Notably, Obama asked Comey to conceal the FBI’s investigation from the incoming administration.

Senator Rand Paul

@RandPaul

Declassified documents reveal V.P. Biden ordered the unmasking of General Flynn’s private conversation.
Anyone think that Biden might have abused his power to go after a political opponent...

Senator Rand Paul

@RandPaul

The Senate must immediately hold hearings on this! Clapper, Comey, Brennan and even Biden owe it to the American people. They should testify under oath. What did the former president know?

As we have previously noted, “unmasking” is a term used when the identity of a U.S. citizen or lawful resident is revealed in classified intelligence reports. Normally, when government officials receive intelligence reports, the names of American citizens are redacted to protect their privacy. But officials can request that names, listed as “U.S. Person 1,” for example, be unmasked internally in order to give context about the potential value of the intelligence. Unmasking is justified for national security reasons but is governed by strict rules across the U.S. intelligence apparatus that make it illegal to pursue for political reasons or to leak classified information generated by the process.

Last week, Acting Director of National Intelligence Richard Grenell visited the Justice Department with the list of unmaskers, which the DOJ effectively said was up to him to release, according to a Fox News report.

After Obama National Security Adviser Susan Rice was outed as the ringleader of an unmasking campaign, the Wall Street Journal reported that she wasn’t the only administration official to participate in Flynn’s unmasking.

The new disclosure comes after the FBI was revealed to have attempted to ensnare Flynn in a perjury trap, despite the agency’s own DC field office suggesting that the case be closed.

Jenna Jameson

@jennajameson

Wooooo…. Biden’s in trouble.

end

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

One reason for the range trading was Dr. Fauci was testifying remotely to the Senate on Covid-19 and the plan to reopen the US economy.  The obligatory rally into the European close appeared right on schedule.  The rally was modest and ended quickly.  Stocks then went inert, again.

@ChadPergram:  In his testimony Fauci says they have had only “modest” success with Remdesivir treating coronavirus… Fauci on if social mitigation efforts are lifted: You could trigger an outbreak you might not be able to control ..it’s almost turning the clock back. That is my major concern… McConnell on the Senate floor: We need to find a middle ground between total lockdown and total normalcy

 

Newsmax’s @EmeraldRobinson: Allow me to summarize Dr. Fauci’s plan to defeat the virus in Americavaccines.  He doesn’t have one yet.  He doesn’t know if it’s even possible to create one. He doesn’t know when it will be ready.  He doesn’t know if it will be safe. He just knows you gotta have one.

‘You’re Not the End All’: Rand Paul Slams Fauci in Heated Exchange over Lockdowns

The history of this when we look back will be wrong prediction after wrong prediction after wrong prediction... As much as I respect you, Dr. Fauci, I don’t think you’re the end all, I don’t think you’re the one person that gets to make a decision,” said Paul – who added that we need to “observe with an open eye what happened in Sweden, where the kids kept going to school.”…

Stocks declined when the afternoon arrived.  The decline accelerated during the final hour on this:

Fed May Curb Banks’ Dividends Due to Virus Crisis, [Fed Gov] Quarles Says – by cranking up the amount of capital they need…  https://news.bloomberglaw.com/banking-law/fed-may-curb-banks-dividends-due-to-virus-crisis-quarles-says

The last-hour declines in 4 of the past 6 sessions presaged the equity decline on Tuesday.  Perhaps, the politics of reopening the US economy weighed on stocks.  Dems want the economy closed; the GOP wants it to re-open.  Dems desperately need to divert Americans’ attention from the mushrooming Obamagate scandal, which could greatly harm Dems in the 2020 Election.

L.A. County ‘with all certainty’ will keep stay-at-home orders in place through July

Los Angeles County’s stay-at-home orders will “with all certainty” be extended for the next three months, county Public Health Director Barbara Ferrer acknowledged during a Board of Supervisors meeting on Tuesday… https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-05-12/coronavirus-beaches-reopen-los-angeles-county-move-toward-new-normal

OAN’s @EmilyRoseFinn : All 23 California State University campuses will remain closed through fall semester…[Closed til 2021?  Lives are being devastated!!!]

@latimes: The economic devastation the pandemic wreaks on the ultra-poor could ultimately kill more people than the virus itselfhttps://latimes.com/world-nation/s

@ClayTravis: Arizona just announced pro sports can resume in the state on May 16thEvery California pro sports team may need to relocate to Arizona for the rest of the year. Not even joking.

@Peoples_Pundit: Tell me again how @GavinNewsom isn’t willing to destroy the financial situation of Californians for political reasons. There is no science, no data to justify this decision. Quite the opposite.

@IngrahamAngle: 2 months ago: “Can’t open until we flatten the curve to save our healthcare system.” One month ago: “Can’t open until we have a vaccine.” A few days ago: “Can’t open until we have multiple vaccines.”  Today: (Essentially) Can’t open until Biden wins.

House Democrats just unveiled a massive [1800 pages] new $3 trillion coronavirus relief package. https://cnb.cx/3fHFro7

U.S. Senate leader says will only consider narrow coronavirus bill   https://reut.rs/2yQpbk4

GOP @RepDougCollins: Don’t be fooled. This isn’t a relief package. It’s $3 trillion wish list drafted in secrecy without any bipartisan collaboration.

GOP Rep. @RepDanCrenshaw: Speaker Pelosi and Democrats just spent WEEKS keeping the House in hiding while they drafted a partisan, multi-trillion dollar bill behind closed doors.  They know this bill will never become law or help anyone. The country is in crisis, and Democrats are playing politics.

@IngrahamAngle: Dr. Fauci now says the vaccines may not even work well.  Time to move on.  Keep doing our best, back to school & work, reform nursing home policies state-by-state.

 

We Need to Take a Hard Look at Nursing-Home Policies

“Nursing homes in Massachusetts are also being asked to take coronavirus patients, but only if they verify that they have adequate staff and protective gear and can isolate the infected… homes will collect 15 percent more in reimbursements for every Medicaid patient.”  Can anyone think of any potential danger from giving a nursing home a greater financial incentive to accept coronavirus patients?…

      There is little mystery behind what is considered the main culprit in this grim statistic: asymptomatic carriers — many of them long-term care staff members, who are getting tested infrequently or too late…

      States barred visitors to nursing homes, cutting off the elderly from their children and grandchildren. And then some states brought in coronavirus patients…  These decisions are so spectacularly wrongheaded, so epically foolish, that those responsible deserve to be remembered forever

    And all this while — with everyone in America sacrificed in the name of keeping the most vulnerable safe — state administrators deliberately placed those who were still contagious with the virus under the same roof as large groups of elderly Americans and just hoped it would work out okay…

https://www.nationalreview.com/the-morning-jolt/we-need-to-take-a-hard-look-at-nursing-home-policies/

Breitbart’s John Hayward @Doc_0: One reason the Chinese Communist Party is using U.S. media sock puppets to frantically push the “all criticism of the CCP = racism” line is to undermine a growing U.S. effort to root out Chinese spies in tech and academia. They want that effort trashed as racist hysteria.

Lockdown deaths on pace to exceed COVID’: Brit Hume shares BBC video claiming models used to justify lockdowns were garbage    https://twitchy.com/samj-3930/2020/05/11/lockdown-deaths-on-pace-to-exceed-covid-brit-hume-shares-bbc-video-claiming-models-used-to-justify-lockdowns-were-garbage/

CDC director on hot seat over his predictions, agency performance – Robert Redfield takes dire view of scope of coronavirus, but it helps to know he was a driving force behind AIDS hysteria of the ’80s and ’90s.  https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/coronavirus/deborah-birx-reportedly-cant-trust-covid-19-numbers-robert-redfields

@CBSNews: Inmates at a Los Angeles County jail allegedly tried to infect themselves with COVID-19 to secure their release. The LA Sheriff says a group of inmates intentionally drank from the same bottle of hot water and took turns breathing through the same mask   https://cbsn.ws/3bqNtOT

Man Charged with Murdering 25-Year-Old Michigan Woman Freed from Prison

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/05/11/man-charged-with-murdering-25-year-old-michigan-woman-freed-from-prison/

 

Is inflammation the link between dementia, cancer and coronavirus?

The inflammation triggered by the continuing fight against all these chronic illnesses… means those affected are battling to maintain their vital functions even before any contact with Covid-19, which then triggers an extra defensive inflammatory response… ‘an excessive inflammatory response… is thought to be a major cause of disease severity and death in patients with Covid-19’

    Government statistics show that more than 90 per cent of Covid deaths are among people aged over 60, with three-quarters in people classed as obese and members of ethnic minorities over-represented among the deaths…Covid-19 only emerged at the end of last year, so human immune systems have never been exposed to it and have no prepared defences… The problem is that innate immunity starts to deteriorate from the age of about 50 and goes into a steep decline from 70…

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-8308883/Is-inflammation-link-dementia-cancer-coronavirus.html

You can’t make this up!  Last media the media said stocks were rallying because the US economy would reopen soon.  S&P 500 tumbles on fears of virus resurgence in economic reopening https://reut.rs/2SXwfSE

NY Post Editorial Board: It looks like President Obama ordered up phony RussiaGate scandal

RussiaGate is now a complete dead letter — but ObamaGate is taking its place. Just how far did the then-president go to cripple his successor?… the Obama administration went on a full-scale leak offensive — handing The Washington Post, New York Times and others a nonstop torrent of “anonymous” allegations of Trumpite ties to Moscow. It suggested that the investigations were finding a ton of treasonous dirt on Team Trump — when in fact the investigators had come up dry…

https://nypost.com/2020/05/11/looks-like-president-obama-ordered-up-phony-russiagate-scandal/

Fox’s @BrookeSingman: Sources confirm to Fox News that acting Director of National Intelligence Ric Grenell has declassified the names of Obama officials behind the #Unmasking of #MichaelFlynn

Sources say documents related to that process are expected to be released soon… the documents, when released, will be released by the @TheJusticeDept, not ODNI… The intel community has no authority over its own information when it comes to releasing to the public. Any US government intel the is released to the public lawfully must first undergo review either by POTUS or DOJ

@JackPosobiec: US official tells @OANN on declassification: “This goes way beyond Flynn”

Bush could be dragged into the illegal surveillance scandal.  This would neuter MSM and Dem attempts to playing the political prosecution card.

Reporter @adamhousley: Ooooooh brother.  Massive surveillance…that’s what’s been found [by Grennel]… They started gathering intel on Flynn in 2014.  This was all about tech intel and the Bush Admin let down the safeguards.  Everyone needs to remember the enormous tech advances we’ve made since 9/11… As one source told me “Adam there a reason Putin put his foreign intel and internal security back on typewriters.” …other candidates in BOTH parties were surveilled…  

   Contractors working for Brennan were gathering the intel. For someone to be unmasked it had to be in an intel report. That’s how they got around the law.  As I’m told the list Grenell brought over is much larger than anything involving Flynn. “The exact tasking flow is hard to discern because the stuff was flying everywhere.”… This was about power. Party is secondary.

Whispers indicate that Barr will NOT release the unmasking list because it could jeopardize prosecutions.

Leaking classified info to the media is a federal crime that carries a 10-year prison sentence.

Biden hides from Flynn accountability

ABC’s George Stephanopoulos… asked, “What did you know about those moves to investigate Michael Flynn and was there anything improper done?”

    Biden responded, “I know nothing about those moves to investigate Michael Flynn.”… After a minute of Biden filibustering, Stephanopoulos followed up: “You say you didn’t know anything about it but you were reported to be at a January 5, 2017 meeting where you and the president [Obama] were briefed on the FBI’s plan to question Michael Flynn over those conversations he had with the Russian Ambassador Kislyak.”  Biden replied, “No, I thought you asked me whether or not I had anything to do with him being prosecuted. I’m sorry. I was aware that there was — that they had asked for an investigation but that’s all I know about it…”   https://gop.com/biden-hides-from-flynn-accountability

White House @PressSec: “There are very real questions now that we know that President Obama was aware of the Flynn unmasking, and the former Vice President too.”

https://twitter.com/bennyjohnson/status/1260230791713472517

On Flynn case: Grassley checks Obama, says FBI abused power in ways Founders, Framers ‘feared most’ – “I’ve heard no comment from Mr. Obama about independent inspector general findings that Andrew McCabe lied under oath to federal investigators multiple times,” said Grassley, referring to the former FBI deputy director.  “Or about how DOJ prosecutors falsely told the court that they had produced all Brady material to Flynn. Or when the federal government surveilled an American citizen connected to the Trump campaign without probable cause and based on intelligence the FBI knew was questionable at best,” Grassley continued… “It’s time we asked: what did Obama and Biden know and when did they know it?”… Grassley also argued the media has failed to accurately cover the framing for special counsel Robert Mueller’s Russia investigation

https://justthenews.com/accountability/russia-and-ukraine-scandals/senator-grassley-fbi-abused-governmental-power-ways

 

Well that is all for today

I will see you THURSDAY night.

 

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