MAY 29/GOLD UIP $19.40 TO $1735.70//SILVER IS UP HUGELY (52CENTS) TO $17.88//HUGE PREMIUM SPOT/FUTURES FOR BOTH GOLD AND SILVER//A HUGE 146 TONNES OF GOLD STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR JUNE//1.8 MILLION OZ FOR SILVER//TRUMP CUTS OFF HONG KONG FOR FAVOURITE STATUS//MORE SANCTIONS LEVELED AGAINST CHINA//CORONAVIRUS UPDATE THROUGHOUT THE GLOBE//BULLION BANKS READY TO DEPART CME FOR THE LME AND A PHYSICAL MARKET OVER THERE//ATLANTA FED PROJECTS SECOND QUARTER GDP TO DROP TO -51%//MORE SWAMP STORIES//

GOLD:$1735.70  UP $19.40   The quote is London spot price

 

 

 

 

Silver:17.88 UP 52 CENTS//LONDON SPOT PRICE

 

 

Closing access prices:  London spot

 

 

 

i)Gold : $1731.00  LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

 

ii)SILVER:  $17.86//LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

CLOSING FUTURES PRICES:  KEY MONTHS

 

 

 

JUNE GOLD:  $1752  CLOSE 1.30 PM//   SPREAD SPOT (LONDON) VS/FUTURE JUNE: $16.80.//

 

CLOSING SILVER FUTURE MONTH

 

 

JULY: 1:30 PM:                          $1844//1:30 PM //SPREAD SPOT LONDON VS FUTURE JULY:      56 CENTS PER OZ//

 

 

the gold market continues to be broken as future prices are much higher than spot prices.  The comex is desperate to fix things but they have no available gold.

If one is to buy gold and or gold coins, the price is around $2800. usa per oz

and silver; $31.00 per oz//

 

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN: YOU ARE NOW WITNESSING FIRST HAND THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN PAPER GOLD/SILVER AND THE REAL PHYSICAL STUFF!!

DO NOT PAY ANY ATTENTION TO WHAT THE CROOKS ARE DOING AT THE COMEX AND LONDON LBMA..PHYSICAL IS THE NAME OF THE GAME AND NOTHING ELSE

 

COMEX DATA

 

 

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING: 13,227//28,375// Goldman Sachs receiving:  5538

issued:  1430 JPM

issued: Goldman Sachs: 916

 

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: JUNE 2020 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,713.300000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 05/28/2020 DELIVERY DATE: 06/01/2020
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
072 C GOLDMAN 916 157
072 H GOLDMAN 5381
099 H DB AG 750
104 C MIZUHO 97
118 H MACQUARIE FUT 1121
132 C SG AMERICAS 153
135 C RAND 1
135 H RAND 18
152 C DORMAN TRADING 39
167 C MAREX 45
190 H BMO CAPITAL 120
323 C HSBC 1697
323 H HSBC 144
355 C CREDIT SUISSE 224 138
357 C WEDBUSH 61
365 C ED&F MAN CAPITA 3
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 3724
555 C BNP PARIBAS SEC 90
555 H BNP PARIBAS SEC 2450
624 C BOFA SECURITIES 614
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 11 1149
657 H MORGAN STANLEY 3519

DLV615-T CME CLEARING
BUSINESS DATE: 05/28/2020 DAILY DELIVERY NOTICES RUN DATE: 05/28/2020
PRODUCT GROUP: METALS RUN TIME: 00:21:30
661 C JP MORGAN 14630 12824
661 H JP MORGAN 403
685 C RJ OBRIEN 34 68
686 C INTL FCSTONE 204 179
690 C ABN AMRO 961 879
700 H UBS 50
732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 6 83
732 H RBC CAP MARKETS 3333
737 C ADVANTAGE 9 8
800 C MAREX SPEC 144
845 C GOLDMAN SACHS C 1
878 C PHILLIP CAPITAL 4
880 C CITIGROUP 50 46
905 C ADM 76 136
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 28,375 28,375
MONTH TO DATE: 28,375

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  MAY CONTRACT: 28,375 NOTICE(S) FOR 2837500 OZ (88.26 tonnes)

 

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  28,375 NOTICES FOR 2837500 OZ  (88.26 TONNES)

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR JUNE

 

 

262 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR  1,310,000  OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month: 262 for 1,310,000 oz

 

BITCOIN MORNING QUOTE  $9398 DOWN $176

 

BITCOIN AFTERNOON QUOTE.: $9451  UP $248

 

GLD AND SLV INVENTORIES:

WITH GOLD UP $19.40 AND NO PHYSICAL TO BE FOUND ANYWHERE:

WITH ALL REFINERS CLOSED//MEXICO ORDERING ALL MINES SHUT:   WHERE ARE THEY GETTING THE “PHYSICAL”?

 

NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD///

REST THIS WEEKEND AT:

GLD: 1,119.05 TONNES OF GOLD//

 

WITH SILVER UP 52 CENTS TODAY: AND WITH NO SILVER AROUND

 

A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/// A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 2.796 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//

RESTING SLV INVENTORY TONIGHT:

 

SLV: 463.273  MILLION OZ./

 

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Let us have a look at the data for today

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

IN SILVER THE COMEX OI ROSE BY A EXTREMELY STRONG SIZED 4007 CONTRACTS FROM 159,031 UP TO 163,038 AND CLOSER TO OUR NEW RECORD OF 244,710, (FEB 25/2020. THE STRONG SIZED GAIN IN  OI OCCURRED WITH  OUR GOOD 9 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. IT SEEMS THAT THE  GAIN IN COMEX OI IS DUE TO STRONG  BANKER SHORT COVERING PLUS A GOOD EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE, ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION, ACCOMPANYING  A HUGE INCREASE IN SILVER OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR JUNE.  WE HAD A NET GAIN IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 4927 CONTRACTS  (SEE CALCULATIONS BELOW).

 

 

 

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A HUMONGOUS AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE:  MAY: 0 AND JULY: 920  AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  920 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 920 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 920 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 4.600 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 9 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

7.32     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

2.630     MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOV.

20.970   MILLION OZ  FINAL STANDING IN DEC

5.075     MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JAN

1.480    MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN FEB

23.005  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAR

4.660  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR APRIL

45.220 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAY

1,825  MILLION OF INITIALLY STANDING FOR JUNE

 

THURSDAY, AGAIN OUR CROOKS USED COPIOUS PAPER IN ORDER TO LIQUIDATE SILVER’S PRICE…AND THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE 9 CENTS).. AND, OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS  WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE ANY AMOUNT OF SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR POSITIONS. THE SMALL GAIN AT THE COMEX WAS ACCOMPANIED BY : i)  A GOOD ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS 2) A HUGE INITIAL  SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JUNE,3) CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING  AND 4) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AS  WE DID HAVE A  NET GAIN OF 4927 CONTRACTS OR 24.635 MILLION OZ ON THE TWO EXCHANGES! YOU CAN BET THE FARM THAT OUR BANKER  ARE DESPERATE TO LIQUIDATE THEIR HUGE SHORT POSITIONS IN SILVER

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY /FOR MONTH OF MAY:

15,454 CONTRACTS (FOR 20 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 15,454 CONTRACTS) OR 77.27 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 773 CONTRACTS OR 3.863 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF MAY: 77.27 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 11.03% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

 

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2020 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          1,066.12 MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2020 EFP TOTALS SO FAR: 181.61 MILLION OZ

FEB 2020 EFP’S TOTAL :  ……     259.600 MILLION OZ

MARCH EFP’S …..                     452.280 MILLION OZ  //TOTALS//AND A NEW RECORD FOR THE MONTH)

APRIL EFP                               95.355 MILLION OZ.  (EX. FOR PHYSICALS BECOMING A LOT LESS)

MAY EFP SO FAR:                   77,27 MILLION OZ

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE FOR THE PAST 30 DAYS IS A LOT LESS.  NO DOUBT THAT THE COST TO CARRY THESE THINGS HAS EXPLODED AND AS SUCH CANNOT BE DONE AS FREQUENTLY AS BEFORE.

 

RESULT: WE HAD AN EXTREMELY STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 4007, WITH OUR GOOD 9 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ///THURSDAY THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 960 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER

 

TODAY WE GAINED A STRONG SIZED OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:  4927 CONTRACTS (WITH OUR 9 CENT GAIN IN PRICE)

 

THE TALLY//EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

i.e 960 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH A STRONG SIZED INCREASE OF 4007 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND HAPPENED DESPITE A GOOD 9 CENT GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER/AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $17.36 // THURSDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY. 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 0.7050 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 100.7% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW  MAR DELIVERY MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 262 NOTICE(S) FOR  1,310,000 OZ OF SILVER.

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018. AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.70//TODAY’S RECORD OF 244,705 IS SET WITH A PRICE OF: 18.91 (FEB 25/2020)

 

.

 

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 10.025 MILLION OZ/ SEPT 43.030 MILLION OZ//OCT: 7.665 MILLION OZ//   NOV: 2.630 MILLION OZ//DEC:  20.970 MILLION OZ; JAN:  5.075 MILLION OZ.//FEB 1.480 MILLION OZ//MAR: 23.005 MILLION OZ/APRIL 4.660 MILLION OZ//MAY  45.220 MILLION OZ//JUNE: 1.825 MILLION OZ//
  2. THE  RECORD PRIOR TO TODAY WAS SET IN FEB 25/2018:  244,710 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $18.90//.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

 

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 

GOLD

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 1529 CONTRACTS TO 510,656 AND FURTHER FORM OUR NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE SMALL SIZED LOSS OF COMEX OI OCCURRED DESPITE OUR GAIN IN PRICE  OF $4.00 /// COMEX GOLD TRADING// THURSDAY// WE  HAD STRONG BANKER SHORT COVERING FINAL  SPREADER COMEX GOLD LIQUIDATION, A GIGANTIC SIZE  IN INITIAL GOLD OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX, ALONG WITH ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION ACCOMPANYING A STRONG  EX. FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. THIS ALL HAPPENED WITH OUR GOOD GAIN IN PRICE OF JUST $4.00 .

WE HAD A VOLUME OF 0  4 -GC CONTRACTS//OPEN INTEREST  11

 

WE GAINED A SMALL SIZED 1456 CONTRACTS  (4.528 TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

 

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

 

 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 2985 CONTRACTS:

CONTRACT  JUNE 0.; AUG 2985 AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO//TOTAL: 2985.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 510,656. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A  SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 1456 CONTRACTS: 1529 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX (MOSTLY FROM FINAL SPREADER LIQUIDATION) AND 2985 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 1456 CONTRACTS OR 4.528 TONNES. THURSDAY, WE HAD A GOOD GAIN OF $4.00 IN GOLD TRADING……

AND WITH THAT GAIN IN  PRICE, WE HAD A SMALL SIZED GAIN IN  TOTAL/TWO EXCHANGES GOLD TONNAGE OF 4.528 TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS/OFFICIAL SECTOR  SUPPLIED INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER WITH RECKLESS ABANDON. THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE (IT ROSE $4.00).AND IT ALSO SEEMS THAT THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE ANY GOLD LONGS FROM THE GOLD ARENA WAS  UNSUCCESSFUL  (SEE BELOW).

4 GC VOLUME: 0  // open interest 11 

 

 

 

 

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:

WE HAD A SMALL SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS  (2985) ACCOMPANYING THE SMALL SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI  (1529 OI): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES:  1456 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1 )CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING, 2.)A HUMONGOUS INITIAL  OUNCES STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR THE FRONT MAY JUNE,  3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION; 4) SMALL COMEX OI LOSS5) FINAL GOLD COMEX SPREADER LIQUIDATION  AND  …ALL OF THIS WAS COUPLED WITH OUR SMALL GAIN IN GOLD PRICE TRADING//THURSDAY//$4.00

WE ARE BEGINNING TO WITNESS A LACK OF EXCHANGE FOR GOLD PHYSICALS UNDERWRITTEN DUE PREMIUMS STARTING TO REAPPEAR. THE COST TO THE BANKERS IS JUST TOO GREAT TO ENGAGE IN THESE VEHICLES ONCE THIS OCCURS.

SPREADING OPERATIONS

 

OUR SPREADING OPERATION HAS NOW SWITCHED INTO GOLD…..

SPREADING OPERATION FOR OUR NEWCOMERS:

WE HAVE NOW COMMENCED IN SILVER THE ILLEGAL SPREADING OPERATION \ FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS:

 

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW STOPPED IN SILVER AS THEY NOW BEGIN TO MORPH INTO GOLD AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW FRONT MONTH WILL BE JUNE.

 

 

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEW, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE SPREADERS AND THE CRIMINAL ELEMENT BEHIND IT:

 HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

 

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR SILVER..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR GOLD.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

 

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

.

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO GOLD AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX SILVER OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE FOR GOLD:

 

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF MAY. BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN GOLD WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JUNE), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

 

 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2020 INCLUDING TODAY

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF MAY : 79,953 CONTRACTS OR 7,995,300 oz OR 248.68 TONNES (20 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 3997 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

 

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 20 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 248.68 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2019, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 248.68/3550 x 100% TONNES =7.00% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD HAS DISSIPATED THIS MONTHTHE COST TO THE BANKERS TO CARRY THESE CONTRACTS IN LONDON IS BECOMING TOO GREAT FOR THEM.

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2020 TO DATE   2815.03  TONNES

JANUARY 2220 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE; : 570.19 TONNES

FEB 2020 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE :            653.78 TONNES

MARCH TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE                1,098.93  TONNES  (*AND A NEW ALL TIME RECORD ISSUANCE//22 DAYS)

APRIL TOTAL EFP. ISSUANCE:               243.45  TONNES  (EFP ISSUANCE BECOMING A LOT LESS)

MAY TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                     248.68 TONNES (EFP ISSUANCE STILL LOW// PREMIUM COST TO THE BANKERS IS HUGE..SO ISSUANCE IS LESS)

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

 

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, ROSE BY A VERY STRONG SIZED 4007 CONTRACTS FROM 159,031 UP TO 163,038 AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 3/4 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

 THE HUGE GAIN IN OI SILVER COMEX WAS DUE TO;   1) CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING , 2) A GOOD ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (SEE BELOW), 3) A STRONG INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR JUNE AND  4) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION 

 

EFP ISSUANCE 920 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 JULY: 920 CONTRACTS   AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 920 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI GAIN  OF 4036 CONTRACTS TO THE 920 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A  STRONG GAIN OF 4927 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 24.635 MILLION  OZ!!! OCCURRED WITH THE 9 CENT GAIN IN PRICE///

 

 

RESULT: A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE 9 CENT GAIN IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// THURSDAY. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED 920 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

 

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

(report Harvey)

 

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)FRIDAY MORNING/ THURSDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 6.13 POINTS OR 0.22%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 171.29 POINTS OR 0.74%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 38.42 POINTS OR 0.18%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 1.44%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 7.1351 /Oil UP TO 57.21 dollars per barrel for WTI and 64.13 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.1351 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.1567 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY PAST 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST  FELL BY A SMALLER THAN EXPECTED 1529 CONTRACTS TO 510,656 MOVING FURTHER FROM  OUR  RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020).  AND THIS  COMEX OI LOSS WAS SET DESPITE OUR TINY GAIN OF $4.00 IN GOLD PRICING /THURSDAY’S COMEX TRADING//). WE ALSO HAD A FAIR EFP ISSUANCE (2985 CONTRACTS),.  THUS WE HAD 1) STRONG BANKER SHORT COVERING AT THE COMEX AND 2)   ZERO  LONG LIQUIDATION AND 3)  A HUMONGOUS INITIAL  GOLD OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX//JUNE DELIVERY MONTH ,  FINAL STRONG SPREADER LIQUIDATION, AND A SMALLER THAN EXPECTED COMEX OI LOSS//  …  AS WE ENGINEERED A SMALL GAIN ON TWO EXCHANGES OF 1456 CONTRACTS WITH GOLD’S SMALL RISE IN PRICE.  

 

 

WE AGAIN HAD 0    4 -GC VOLUME//open interest rises to 11

 

 

 

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 2985 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  2985 FOR AUG AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2985 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:  1456 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 2985 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE LOST A SMALL SIZED 1529 COMEX CONTRACTS.  THE BANKERS PROVIDED ALL THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER TO WHICH OUR LONGS DUTIFULLY ACCEPTED AS THEY GOBBLED UP A STRONG  AMOUNT OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WITH STRONG BANKER SHORT COVERING,  FINAL SPREADER LIQUIDATION ACCOMPANYING A SMALL COMEX OI LOSS,  A HUMONGOUS INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR THE JUNE DELIVERY (SEE CALCULATIONS BELOW)… AND  ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION…… ALL OF THE ABOVE OCCURRED WITH A SMALL GAIN  IN COMEX PRICE OF 4 DOLLARS..BASICALLY ALL OF THE LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS DUE TO THE SPREADER LIQUIDATION.

 

THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT ROSE $4.00)AND, THEY WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING ANY LONGS, AS THE TOTAL GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES REGISTERED A GOOD 4.528 TONNES.

 

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES :: 1456 CONTRACTS OR 145,600 OZ OR 4.528 TONNES.

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT COMMODITY FUTURES OPEN INTEREST SHOULD APPROXIMATE 3% OF TOTAL PRODUCTION.  IN GOLD THE WORLD PRODUCES AROUND 3500 TONNES PER YEAR BUT ONLY 2200 TONNES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE WEST (THUS EXCLUDING RUSSIA, CHINA ETC..WHO KEEP 100% OF THEIR PRODUCTION)

THUS IN GOLD WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:  510,656 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS X 100 OZ PER CONTRACT = 51.06 MILLION OZ/32,150 OZ PER TONNE =  1588 TONNES

THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST REPRESENTS 1588/2200 OR 72.18% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF GOLD.

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 145,072 contracts//volume very low //spreaders done

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY200,476 contracts// volume still very low

MAY 29 /2020

MAY GOLD CONTRACT MONTH

 

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
nil oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz 176,605,443 oz

Brinks

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

440,327.203

OZ

BRINKS

DELAWARE

HSBC

 

 

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
28,375 notice(s)
 2,837,500 OZ
(88.26 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
18844 contracts
(18844 oz)
58.61 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
28,375 notices
2,837500 OZ
88.266 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

We had 1 deposits into the dealer

I) Into Brinks: 176,605.443  OZ

 

 

 

total dealer deposits:  176,605.443 oz

 

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had 3 deposits into the customer account

 

 

 

 

i) Into HSBC: 47,391.203 oz

ii) Into Brinks:  388,935.663 oz

iii) Into Delaware: 3999.77 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

total deposits: 440,327.203    oz

 

 

we had 0 gold withdrawals from the customer account:

 

 

total gold withdrawals;  nil

We had 0  kilobar transactions  +

 

We had 0  4 KC bar volume transactions/11 contracts oi

 

 

 

 

ADJUSTMENTS: 34 //    

 

2 of them dealer to the customer account

 

 

ii) From Manfra: 2990.043 oz

iii) From Brinks:  2738.561 oz

2 of them customer to dealer

i) JPM  300,029.282 oz

ii) Scotia:  203,074.83 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The front month of JUNE registered a total of 47,132 oi contracts which is absolutely astounding.

Thus by definition, the initial amount of gold oz standing for June is calculated as follows:

47,132 oz 100 oz per contract =  4,713,200 oz  or 146.60 tonnes

I thought we were going to get close to 100 tonnes but in all my years, I cannot believe this!!!

After June we have the non active delivery month of July and here we had a gain of 140 contracts up to 3269 contracts.

 

 

Next comes August another strong delivery month and here the OI ROSE by 11,160 contracts up to 340,462 contracts.

 

 

We had 28,375 notices filed today for 2,837,500 oz

 

FOR THE JUNE 2020 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 1430 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 38,375 contract(s) of which 403 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 12,824 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 5538 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JUNE /2020. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (28,375) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  JUNE (47,132 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today (28375 x 100 oz per contract) equals 4,713,200 OZ OR 146.60 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this active month of JUNE

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JUNE/2020 contract month:

No of notices served (28,375)x 100 oz + (47,132 OI) for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (28,375) x 100 oz which equals 4,713,200 oz standing OR 146.60 TONNES in this  active delivery month. This is a HUGE record amount for gold standing for a JUNE delivery month or any active/non active delivery month.

 

 

 

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:  BRINKS

3027.500 OZ  REMOVED TO THE PLEDGED ACCOUNT JAN 10.2020/Brinks//Manfra .553 tonnes removed may 26

144,088.952 oz NOW PLEDGED  JAN 21.2020/HSBC  5.4807 TONNES

322,144.443 oz PLEDGED  MARCH 2020  JPMORGAN:  10.020 TONNES

42,548.308.00 PLEDGED  APRIL 3/2020: SCOTIA:            1.3234 tonnes

19,290.600 oz Pledged May 8/2020   INT DELAWARE:  .600 TONNES

 

 

TOTAL PLEDGED GOLD NOW IN EFFECT:  528,072.303  OZ OR 16.425  TONNES

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES…. WE HAVE 307.78 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS ie. 146.60 tonnes

CALCULATION OF REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SETTLED UPON:

total registered or dealer  10,423,107.871 oz or 324.20  tonnes
which  includes the following:
a) pledged gold held at HSBC   which cannot settled upon   144,088.952 oz x ( 4.4817 TONNES)//
b) pledged gold held at JPMorgan (added March 2020) which cannot be settled upon:  322,144.443 oz (or 10.0200 tonnes)
total pledged gold:
c)  pledged gold at Scotia: 1.3234 tonnes or 42,548.308 oz which cannot be settled  (1.3234 tonnes)
d) pledged gold at Manfra:  DELETED TODAY MAY 26.2020
e) pledged gold at int.Del.    19,290.600 oz  which cannot be settled:   (.600 tonnes)
total weight of pledged:  528,072.303 oz or 16.425 tonnes
thus:
registered gold that can be used to settle upon: 9,895,035.0  (307.78 tonnes)
true registered gold  (total registered – pledged tonnes  9,895,035.0 (307.78 tonnes)
total eligible gold:  17,091,888.228 oz (531.63 tonnes)

total registered, pledged  and eligible (customer) gold;   27,514.996.099 oz 956.67 tonnes (INCLUDES 4 GC GOLD)

total 4 GC gold:   127.05 tonnes

total gold net of 4 GC:  829.62 tonnes

 

end

 

I have compiled  data with respect to registered (or dealer) gold taken on first day notice for each of the past 24 months

The data begins on first day notice for the May month taken on the last day of April 2018. and it continues to present day.  Thus 24 data entry points.

 

I then took, how many deliveries were recorded by the CME for each and every month.  I also included for reference the price of gold on first day notice.

 

The first graph is a logarithmic  graph and the second graph, linear.

You can see the huge explosion of registered gold at the comex along with deliveries.  Gold owners are very clear people.  They would know full well that

the gold at the comex is unallocated and that they would not be stupid enough to keep their gold at the comex especially in the registered category once deliveries are asked upon. If physical gold was present it would be have removed from the comex… It shows there is no gold at the comex.  They are just trading in sticky paper.

 

 

THE GOLD COMEX SEEMS TO BE  UNDER SEVERE ASSAULT FOR PHYSICAL

 

END

MAY 29/2020

And now for the wild silver comex results

Total COMEX silver OI ROSE BY AN EXTREMELY STRONG SIZED 4007 CONTRACTS FROM 159,031 UP TO 163,038(AND CLOSER TO OUR NEW ALL TIME RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON FEB 25.2020(244,710) ECLIPSING OUR PREVIOUS RECORD, AUGUST 25/2018 RECORD (244,196).  THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) . THE STRONG OI COMEX GAIN TODAY OCCURRED WITH OUR 9 CENT GAIN IN PRICING//THURSDAY. WE GAINED A TOTAL OF 4927 CONTRACTS IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES.  THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI (TWO EXCHANGES) OCCURRED WITH 1)  A GOOD ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS 2) A HUGE INITIAL  SILVER OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR THE JUNE DELIVERY MONTH, 3)  CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING , 4) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION,5) STRONG COMEX GAIN IN OI AND ALL OF THIS OCCURRED WITH OUR GOOD 9 CENT LOSS IN PRICE 

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE

THE FRONT DELIVERY OF JUNE SAW  365 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS STANDING  AND THUS BY DEFINITION THE INITIAL AMOUNT OF SILVER OZ STANDING IN THIS NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE IS CALCULATED AS FOLLOWS:

365 NOTICES X 5,000 OZ PER CONTRACT =  1,825,000 OF WHICH IS VERY STRONG FOR A NON ACTIVE MONTH.

 

 

 

 

AFTER JUNE COMES THE VERY BIG DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY AND HERE THE OI GAINED 2967 CONTRACTS UP TO 119,659 CONTRACTS. THE STRONG DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT SAW A GAIN OF 812 CONTRACTS UP TO 24,470

 

 

We, today, had  262 notice(s) FILED  for 1,310,000 OZ for the JULY, 2020 COMEX contract for silver

 

MAY 29/2020

MAY SILVER COMEX CONTRACT MONTH

 

<

 

Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 100.000 oz
Delaware

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
1,205,369.180 oz
CNT
No of oz served today (contracts)
262
CONTRACT(S)
(1,310,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
103 contracts
 515,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  262 contracts

1,310,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
We had 0 deposit into the dealer:

total dealer deposits: nil oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

 

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

i)we had 1 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:   0

ii)into CNT:  1,205,369.180 oz

 

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017, 2018 and onward, has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 160.819 million oz of  total silver inventory or 51.22% of all official comex silver. (160.819 million/314.220 million

 

total customer deposits today: 1,205,369.180    oz

we had 1 withdrawals:

 

 

i) Out of Delaware: 1000.00 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

total withdrawals; 1000.000    oz

We had 1 adjustment

i) Out of CNT:  customer to dealer:

1,025,206.77 oz

 

total dealer silver: 85.801 million

total dealer + customer silver:  311.569 million oz

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

The total number of notices filed today for the JUNE 2020. contract month is represented by 262 contract(s) FOR1,310,000 oz

 

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JUNE we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 262 x 5,000 oz = 1,310,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JUNE.(365) and the number of notices served upon today 262 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the JUNE/2019 contract month: 262 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of JUNE (365)- number of notices served upon today 262) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the JUNE contract month.equals 1,825,000 oz.

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME: 62,784 CONTRACTS //volume  high

 

 

FOR YESTERDAY: 67,272 CONTRACTS..,CONFIRMED VOLUME//

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 67,272  CONTRACTS EQUATES to 336 million  OZ 48.00% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

 

NPV for Sprott

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV  RISES TO- 0.30% ((MAY 29/2020)

2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV  FALLS TO -1.23% to NAV:   (MAY 29/2020 )

Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ 0.30%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 16.53 TRADING 16.43///NEGATIVE 0.60

END

 

 

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

MAY 29/WITH GOLD UP $19.40 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD///GLD INVENTORY RESTS THIS WEEKEND AT 1119.05 TONNES

MAY 28//WITH GOLD UP $4.00 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY TO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS  AT 1119.05 TONNES

MAY 27/WITH GOLD UP $.10 TODAY: A STRONG 2.34 TONNES OF GOLD ADDED TO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1119.05 TONNES

MAY 26//WITH GOLD DOWN $23.05//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY://RESTS TONIGHT AT 1116.71 TONNES

MAY 22//WITH GOLD UP $13.05//A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY:: A PAPER ADDITION OF 3.93 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS THIS WEEKEND AT:  1116.71 TONNES

MAY 21//WITH GOLD DOWN $26.70//NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1112.32 TONNES

MAY 20/WITH GOLD UP $7.20: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.46 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 1112.32 TONNES

MAY 19//WITH GOLD UP $10.60//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1113.78 TONNES

MAY 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $15.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 9.06 TONNES./INVENTORY RESTS AT 1113.78 TONNES

MAY 15.WITH GOLD UP $16.30 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 12.58 TONNES/  INVENTORY RESTS AT 1104.72 TONNES

MAY 14//WITH GOLD UP $19.25 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1092.14 TONNES

MAY 13//WITH GOLD UP $9.05 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A DEPOSIT OF 11.07 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1092.14 TONNES

MAY 12//WITH GOLD UP $6.60 TODAY; A SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A WITHDRAWAL OF .58 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1081.07 TONNES

MAY 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.65 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY: //INVENTORY RESTS AT 1081.65 TONES..

MAY 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.00 TODAY; A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: A PAPER ADDITION OF 5.85 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1081.65 TONNES

MAY 7/WITH GOLD UP $29.65 TODAY : A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A PAPER ADDITION OF .41 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1075.80 TONNES

MAY 6//WITH GOLD DOWN $17.00 TODAY/ A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A PAPER ADDITION OF 3.68 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1075.39 TONES

MAY 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.65 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER ADDITION OF 3.81 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1071.71 TONNES

MAY 4//WITH GOLD UP $12.00 TODAY//A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE PAPER DEPOSIT OF 11.4 TONNES INTO THE GLD////GOLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 1067.90 TONNES

MAY 1/WITH GOLD UP $8.45 NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1056.50 TONNES

APRIL 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $15.95 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1056.50 TONNES

APRIL 29/WITH  GOLD DOWN $7.65/A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 8.19 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY REST AT 1056.50 TONNES//

APRIL 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.50//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1048.31 TONNES

APRIL 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.75//A HUGE  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 5.85 TONNES INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 1048.31 TONNES

APRIL 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.90 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 1042.46 TONNES

APRIL 23/WITH GOLD UP $10.00 TODAY:  NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 1042.46 TONNES

APRIL 22/WITH GOLD UP $40.75 TODAY:; TWO HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A)A MONSTROUS  3.8 PAPER TONNES WERE ADDED TO THE GLD INVENTORY AND B) ANOTHER HUGE 9.07 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD ADDED LATE IN THE DAY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1042.46 TONNES

APRIL 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $21.60 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MONSTROUS ADDITION OF 7.9 PAPER TONNES TO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1029.59 TONNES

APRIL 20//WITH GOLD UP $10.00 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1021.69 TONNES

APRIL 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $27.80 TODAY: SURPRISINGLY NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1021.69 TONNES TONNES..THE STRING OF 12 STRAIGHT STRONG DEPOSITS ENDS..

APRIL 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.50 TODAY: ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: A STRONG DEPOSIT OF 4.10 TONNES WAS ADDED TO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1021.69 TONNES/12TH STRAIGHT STRONG DEPOSIT

APRIL 15//WITH GOLD DOWN $19.10 TODAY; ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY; A STRONG 7.89 TONNES WAS ADDED TO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1117.59 TONNES.//11TH STRAIGHT STRONG DEPOSIT

APRIL 14/WITH GOLD UP $23.55 TODAY: ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: A STRONG 15.51 TONNES WAS ADDED TO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1009.70 TONNES//THIS IS THE 10TH STRAIGHT STRONG DEPOSIT//THIS IS A FRAUDULENT VEHICLE..THEY HAVE NO PHYSICAL GOLD IN THE TRUST..

APRIL 13//WITH GOLD UP $27.65 TODAY: ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: A STRONG 5.36 TONNES WAS ADDED TO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 994.19 TONNES

APRIL 9 WITH GOLD UP $37.30 TODAY: ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: A STRONG 2.92 TONNES WAS ADDED TO THE GLD//GOLD INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT..988.63 TONNES

APRIL 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $.60//ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY/;; A STRONG 1.45 TONNES WAS ADDED TO THE GLD/GOLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 985.71 TONNES

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Inventory rests tonight at

MAY 29/ GLD INVENTORY 1119.05 tonnes*

LAST;  830 TRADING DAYS:   +171.99 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD

 

LAST 730 TRADING DAYS://+347.14  TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

 

end

 

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

MAY 29//WITH SILVER UP 52 CENTS TODAY: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 2.796 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS THIS WEEKEND AT 463.273 MILLION OZ//

MAY 28//WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: A MASSIVE  CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 4.660 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 460.477 MILLION OZ//

MAY 27/WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 455.817 MILLION OZ//

MAY 26//WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/// INVENTORY RESTS AT 455.817 MILLION OZ//

MAY 22/WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS TODAY/ A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.864 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 455.817 MILLION OZ/

LAST 5 DAYS: SILVER UP 60 CENTS: INVENTORY  UP A WHOOPING 23.767 MILLION OZ///

MAY 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 50 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE PAPER DEPOSIT OF 7.923 MILLION OZ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 457.681 MILLION OZ//

MAY 20//WITH SILVER UP ANOTHER 11 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SLV INVENTORY: A HUGE PAPER DEPOSIT OF 9.601 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 449.758 MILLION OZ

MAY 19/WITH SILVER UP ANOTHER 29 CENTS TODAY:  NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.157 MILLION OZ//

MAY 18/WITH SILVER UP ANOTHER 48 CENTS TODAY: TWO BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV I.E. 2 PAPER DEPOSIT OF ( I) 8.39 MILLION OZ AND THEN ( 2) 8.109 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 432.048 MILLION OZ// (TOTAL DEPOSITS 16.500 MILLION OZ///)

MAY 15/WITH SILVER UP 81 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: /INVENTORY RESTS AT 423.65 MILLION OZ.

MAY 14//WITH SILVER UP 33 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 423.65 MILLION OZ

MAY 13/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.79 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 423.65 MILLION OZ//


MAY 12/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.076 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 420.861 MILLION OZ//

MAY 11.WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 417.785 MILLION OZ//

MAY 8/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A MONSTER DEPOSIT OF 4.661 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV..///INVENTORY RESTS AT 417.785 MILLION OZ//

MAY 7/WITH SILVER UP 45 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 413.124 MILLION OZ//

MAY 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 413.124 MILLION OZ//

MAY 5/WITH SILVER UP 17 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 413.124 MILLION OZ///

MAY 4//WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY:2 HUGE PAPER CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.i).A  LARGE 1.399 MILLION OZ OF PAPER SILVER REMOVED FROM THE SLV//..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 411.427 MILLION OZ and ii) A LARGE 1.647 MILLION OZ OF PAPER SILVER ADDED TO THE SLV//  INVENTORY RESTS AT 413.124 MILLION OZ//


MAY 1/WITH SILVER FLAT IN PRICE: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 412.826 MILLION OZ///

APRIL 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 26 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 412.826 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 29/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 412.826 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 28 /WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 412.826 MILLION OZ..

APRIL 27/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT TODAY: TWO SMALL  CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: a) A WITHDRAWAL OF 373,000 OZ FORM THE SLV// b) A SECOND WITHDRAWAL OF 466,000: ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 412.826 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 24//WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 413.665 MILLION OZ

APRIL 23/WITH SILVER UP 0 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.891 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 413.665 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 22/WITH SILVER UP 42 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.865 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 410.774 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 21//WITH SILVER DOWN 60 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER ADDITION OF 1.398 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 412.639 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 20//WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.797 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 414.038 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS TODAY; A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.3999 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 415.437 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 16/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 415.437 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 15//WITH SILVER DOWN 45 CENTS TODAY: TWO HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV TWO HUGE DEPOSITS: A DEPOSIT OF 1.679 MILLION OZ AND ANOTHER 5.222 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 415.437 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 14./WITH SILVER UP 51 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A MASSIVE PAPER DEPOSIT OF XXX MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 408.536 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 13//WITH SILVER DOWN 29 CENTS TODAY;  A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A MASSIVE PAPER DEPOSIT OF 6.155 MILLION OZ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 408.536 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 9/WITH SILVER UP 60 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.84 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 402.381 MILLION OZ.

 

 

MAY 29.2020:

SLV INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT

463.273 MILLION OZ.

END

 

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES//  GOLD LEASE RATES

 

 

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 3.08/ and libor 6 month duration 0.52

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

GOLD LENDING RATE: -2.56%

NEGATIVE GOLD LEASING RATES INCREASING BY A HUGE AMOUNT//GOLD SCARCITY AND CENTRAL BANKS CALLING IN ALL OF THEIR GOLD LEASES

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2..05%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 0.68

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = -1.37%

NEGATIVE GOLD LEASING RATES  INCREASING BY A HUGE AMOUNT//GOLD SCARCITY AND CENTRAL BANKS CALLING IN ALL OF THEIR GOLD LEASES

 

end

 

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

 

 

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

We brought you this important story yesterday but it is worth repeating:

bullion banks are preparing to pull away from the Comex and head to the LME

(Peter Hobson/Reuters//GATA)

Bullion banks prepare Comex pullback after virus snarl

 Section: 

By Peter Hobson
Reuters
Thursday, May 28, 2020

LONDON — Gold trading banks are preparing to significantly reduce their positions on CME Group’s Comex exchange in New York, nine people familiar with the plans said, shifting more trading to London and raising costs for thousands of investors.

Some bullion banks are no longer willing to hold large positions on Comex, the biggest gold futures market, after the coronavirus snarled the supply of gold bars, sending Comex prices vaulting above London rates in March.

… 

The divergence wiped hundreds of millions of dollars off the value of trading books, according to industry sources, with HSBC reporting a $200-million paper loss in a single day.

Many banks have already reduced their day-to-day trading on Comex since the market disruption but they are worried that prices could diverge again and some now intend to reduce their open positions by between 50-75%, sources at six lenders said.

Facing the threat of lost business, CME is considering amending contracts to allow delivery of gold in London as well as in New York, five industry and banking sources said, adding that no decision had yet been taken. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-gold-cme-exclusive…

END

For your interest…

(GATA)

Ronald-Peter Stoferle and Mark Valek: The dawning of a golden decade

 Section: 

11:55p ET Thursday, May 29, 2020

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Incrementum’s Ronald-Peter Stoferle and Mark Valek are back with another magisterial “In Gold We Trust” report, painstakingly outlining all the reasons the world should be experiencing what the report’s title calls “The Dawning of a Golden Decade.”

Those reasons begin with infinite money chasing infinite debt, continue with the near-suicide of the world economy as the policy response to the virus epidemic, and conclude with the prospect of a new monetary system for the world.

… 

But will the dawn come for gold?

The report seems a little short on central bank policy options, not quite recognizing that for some years now under the leadership of Western central banks the world already had been operating under a system of infinite money, and that the success of a system of infinite money requires infinite commodity price suppression to defend government currencies. After all, do central banks — even those of Russia and China — really want their own currencies displaced by the former world reserve currency, whose revival would tie their hands?

But that is an especially sensitive topic, and regardless of what major central banks want, circumstances certainly are making them more ridiculous every day. Maybe the “In Gold We Trust” report is most valuable for detailing the craziness. It can be found in English and German in both complete and abbreviated versions at the Incrementum internet site here:

https://www.incrementum.li/en/journal/in-gold-we-trust-report-2020-the-d…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

iii) Other physical stories:

 

Silver Shines As Gold Glut Weighs On Barbarous Relic

The last two months have seen silver dramatically underperform gold…

interestingly tracking the dollar index…

…after reaching record ‘lows’  against the yellow metal.

The surge in silver (relative to gold) began around the same time as the gold market “broke” with the COVID crisis causing geographical shortages of physically deliverable gold for futures contracts (decoupling the price of gold futures from the physical price for that liquidity/transportation premium).

But now,  as Bloomberg notes (and the chart above shows), the New York gold market has been flipped on its head in just a couple of months, with a scramble for the metal turning into a glut.

June futures sank to more than $20 an ounce below August earlier this week, from a premium in mid-April.

Notices to deliver on June contracts begin to be filed on Thursday. The June contract is also below spot prices, after fetching a $12 premium as recently as mid-May and $60 in March. As Bloomberg points out, the steep discount echoes some of what oil traders saw earlier this year, when crude stockpiles surged after fuel demand plunged.

“It’s a little bit of a game of chicken,” said Tai Wong, head of metals derivatives trading at BMO Capital Markets.

“All of a sudden you get into a similar problem that you had in crude, but slightly different: for crude they literally didn’t have a place to put it — whereas in this case speculative longs don’t want the logistical hassle of holding physical metal, which is why cost to roll has blown out.”

Just as we saw with the June crude expiration, technical pressures are likely to lift as the arb is narrowed:

“It is a seller’s market because of the premium and the buyers are stuck right now,” Peter Thomas, a senior vice president at Chicago-based broker Zaner Group, said in a telephone interview.

“Do you want to deliver now, or do you want to deliver into the back, where the premium is high?”

But, of course, the imbalance in the New York market is a localized phenomenon: gold remains in high demand around the world among investors concerned about the state of the global economy.

And,  as Simon Black pointed out recentlyEVERY possible scenario is on the table as far as policymakers are concerned, and no one can say for sure what’s going to happen next.

There are very few things that are clear. But in my view, one thing that has become clear is that western governments will print as much money as it takes to bail everyone out.

According to the Congressional Budget Office, the US federal government will post a $3.6 TRILLION deficit this Fiscal Year due to all the bailouts. Plus the Federal Reserve has already printed $2 trillion.

Frankly, they’re just getting started.

With this incomprehensible tsunami of government debt and paper money flooding the system, real assets are a historically great bet.

We’ve talked about this before: real assets are things that cannot be engineered by politicians and central banks– assets like productive land, well-managed businesses, and yes, precious metals.

And they all tend to do very well when central banks print tons of money.

Farmland, for example, was one of the best performing assets during the stagflation of the 1970s.

And financial data over the past several decades shows that whenever they print lots of money, the price of gold tends to increase.

Right now, in fact, the price of gold is relatively cheap compared to the current money supply.

And the price of silver is ridiculously cheap compared to gold. Again, silver has never been cheaper in 5,000 years.

This is why I’d rather just own physical silver. I’m not interested in betting against gold because I expect they’ll continue to print money. In fact I’m happy to buy more gold.

And while we cannot be certain about anything, there’s a strong case to be made that the price of silver could soar alongside gold.

end

A must read..

Egon von Greyerz on gold

 

Von Greyerz: US Gold Confiscation Would Be Folly

Authored by Egon von Greyerz via GoldSwitzerland.com,

Will gold be confiscated? Yes, of course, it could be. Desperate governments will take desperate actions. And as the world economy is now slumping into a hyperinflationary depression, unlimited money printing will cause currencies to collapse, leading to a surge in the gold price measured in worthless paper money.

So the first question we must ask is: Why would governments punish prudent savers who have taken protection in gold against the irresponsible mismanagement of the economy and the currency?

GOLD IS 0.5% OF GLOBAL ASSETS

Global financial assets are estimated by Credit Suisse to be $360 trillion. Of that stocks are $85 trillion or 24%. The global bond market is $100 trillion (28%). Investment gold is around 35,000 tonnes or $1.9 trillion. This represents a mere 0.5% of global financial assets.

With investment gold representing only 0.5% of global assets whilst stocks are 24%, you can ask why the US government, are doing all they can do drive up the value of stocks by printing money and at the same time suppressing the price of gold. Why are shareholders supported to become rich whilst gold holders are penalised?

Governments are clearly supporting ever higher stock since this buys votes. But with so few investors holding gold, the government will lose very few votes by manipulating the gold price down.

WILL THE US CONFISCATE GOLD

Since we are now entering a period of major currency debasement and potential hyperinflation, you could ask why governments would stop investors from preserving wealth in the form of gold. So would the US government, instead of encouraging thrift and prudent wealth preservation in the form of gold, confiscate the savings of the Americans? Well, some observers like Jim Sinclair – “Mr. Gold” – thinks this is possible also for US gold mines. He does believe though that coins of the Realm like Eagles would be excluded.

But the confiscation by Roosevelt in 1933 was a totally different situation and not comparable with today. At that time, the US was in a depression and the dollar was tied to gold. The economy was under pressure and the US government decided that the dollar needed to be devalued. A dollar devaluation automatically meant a revaluation of gold since the two were totally interlinked. But FDR decided that the US holders of gold should not get the benefit of a revaluation. Thus gold was confiscated and then revalued from $20.67 per ounce to $35. Gold in bank safe deposit boxes was taken but many Americans hid their gold at home. Gold held outside the US was not confiscated.

AMERICANS HOLD GOLD IN MANY COUNTRIES 

Today gold ownership is global. US investors for example are legally storing gold in many countries – Canada, Singapore, Australia, UK, and Switzerland to mention a few. Substantial  amounts of gold are stored by US citizens in these countries. Switzerland is a major gold hub where gold is stored in the big banks as well as in many private banks. In addition, there are many private vaults outside the banking system in Switzerland storing considerable amounts of gold.

It would be totally impractical to require Americans to ship the gold back to the US. Also, many countries would not cooperate. I have heard people criticising Switzerland for giving in to the US authorities and revealing the names of Americans who held undeclared accounts in Switzerland at UBS and other banks. As a Swiss I also consider that the Swiss government should not have succumbed as they did this in contravention of the Swiss constitution. Banking secrecy was holy and law in Switzerland at the time. But there was pressure from many European countries also that the Swiss were complicit in tax fraud. In Switzerland, not declaring funds or income was not a criminal event.

TODAY THERE IS AUTOMATIC EXCHANGE OF ALL FINANCIAL INFORMATION

So Switzerland gave in at the time and the banks had to open up their books. And today all banks in the world exchange information based on the OECD Common Reporting Standard. This is an Automatic Exchange Of Information (AEOI) between virtually all countries. Gold held within the financial system is included in this reporting.

The reason Switzerland gave in was the enormous pressure the US authorities put on them, which supposedly included freezing all the assets of the UBS US branch. But also morally the Swiss government had to give in since it was hard to justify actions that were allowed in Switzerland but fraudulent in the US and most other countries.

Gold or other precious metals held in private vaults is at the present not reportable by Americans in their tax returns. The same goes for property. But based on the strict compliance and AML (Anti Money Laundering) regulation, no serious company involved in precious metal storage would accept undeclared funds or metals. Thus no respectable company dealing with gold would accept client funds or gold which are not tax compliant in the country of the client.

So today, gold or other precious metals held in Switzerland by Americans are totally tax compliant. For that reason, I doubt that the Swiss government would cooperate with the US tax authorities if they required the gold to be returned.

GOLD IS A STRATEGIC INDUSTRY IN SWITZERLAND 

Gold confiscation in Switzerland is very unlikely. Refining and storing gold in Switzerland is a strategic industry. Switzerland refines 70% of the gold bars in the world. This makes our country a very important party in the global gold industry that could not be replaced elsewhere. In addition, gold is 29% of Swiss exports which is very significant. Also, Switzerland stores a major part of the private gold in the world.

Saving in gold as well as giving gold to children or as a wedding present is a long-standing Swiss tradition. The Swiss will normally buy the Swiss Vreneli coin.

The gold stored in Swiss private vaults is growing significantly every year. The stable political system, rule of law, being a very old democracy and neutrality all contribute to this. Gold confiscation would also be against the constitution. A senior Swiss politician friend of mine told me that if the Swiss government confiscated gold, the people would revolt. For these reasons, I believe that Switzerland will become an even more important gold hub and the best place in the world to store gold.

DOES THE US HOLD 8,000 TONNES OF GOLD?

The US declares holding 8,000 tonnes of gold. This gold has not had an official physical audit since Eisenhower’s days in the mid 1950s. There is clearly a reason for a country not properly auditing their stated $450 billion gold holding. Almost all countries are in the same position. Nobody has an official physical audit of their gold. Since they are all declaring how much gold they hold, they clearly have a responsibility to their people to publicly audit their alleged gold holding.

The answer is simple of course. They don’t have the gold they say that they hold. That can be the only reason why it is never audited. In my view many central banks, including the Fed have covertly reduced their official gold holding. In addition, all central banks are lending or leasing a major part of their gold and most probably also lending the same gold many times over. We know for example that HSBC and JP Morgan hold a major amount of central bank gold. They are also custodian for the biggest gold ETF – GLD. When the gold holdings by GLD increases, there is no gold bought from the Swiss refiners. Instead, the custodians just lend them the central bank gold they hold which has probably been lent many times over.

CENTRAL BANK AND BULLION BANK GOLD IS LOST TO THE EAST

In the past when central banks leased out gold, it would stay with the bullion banks in  London or New York. Today, the big buyers are China and India. They buy gold from the bullion banks in London or New York. These 400 oz bars are shipped to Switzerland to be broken down into kilo bars by the Swiss refiners. The kilo bars are the desired size both in India and China. These bars are then shipped on to the East. The bullion banks lease the 400 oz bars from a central bank and then sells them on the buyers in the East.

So instead of staying in London or New York, the central bank has now leased the gold to a bullion bank which has sold it to China or India. The result is that the bullion bank no longer has the physical gold and all the central bank has is an IOU from the bullion bank. This means that the physical gold is permanently lost by both the bullion bank and the central bank. It will never return. The bullion bank will default because they can’t deliver the gold to the central bank which in turn has lost its physical gold forever. This is why central banks don’t have a fraction of the physical gold they declare to have.

JIM SINCLAIR $87,000 GOLD 

Jim Sinclair and Bill Holter, two of the most respected individuals in the gold industry, have calculated the real value of the US gold based on 8,000 tonnes allegedly held by the US and balancing the balance sheet of the US. The projected value is $50,000 to $87,000. And as Jim says, that assumes the US holds 8,000 tonnes. Let’s say that the US only holds 4,000t, then the gold price would be double these estimates. And assume that virtually all the US gold has been sold or leased, that would be a gold price going to infinity.  But 4,000t or slightly less seems more realistic.

CHINESE GOLD

China has been accumulating gold for decades. Their official holdings are 2,000 tonnes. But it is widely assumed that their real holding is over 10x that. Insiders who have been working with the Chinese confirm that they are likely to hold over 20,000t. All the domestic Chinese gold production, currently 400t p.a. goes to the government.

When China announces a gold-backed yuan, which is not unlikely, they will declare their 20,000+ tonnes and then challenge the US to prove they have the 8,000t. This will lead to some interesting exchanges of aggression, hopefully only verbal.

GOLD CONFISCATION – EVG VIEW

As I said initially, it is possible that some governments attempt to confiscate gold. But in my view, it is an extremely difficult exercise to both legally and logistically conduct. Also, if the gold is held abroad many countries will resist or refuse to ship gold to the US.

Also, the gold market is today global. In China, 1.4 billion people are encouraged by the state to own gold. In India, it is a tradition for most families to hold gold and to give gold as wedding presents. And in Russia, gold reserves have gone from 400 tonnes in 2006 to 2,300 today, a fourfold increase. These countries understand the vital importance of gold.

In today’s global markets, it would be almost impossible to stop companies or individuals to trade gold outside the US or Europe in Shanghai, Singapore or Zurich.

With the epicentre of the gold market moving to China and the East, it is very unlikely for the US and the West to confiscate gold. This would precipitate the fall of the dollar and the Euro and substantially weaken the US and EU positions and their economies. 

Remember:

“HE WHO HOLDS THE GOLD MAKES THE RULES”

Thus I believe that confiscation is very unlikely. Governments have a much simpler way of getting at the assets of the wealthy through high taxation. And this is what I believe will happen and not just for gold. As government deficits surge, all assets of the rich will be taxed heavily and not just gold which today represents only 0.5% of global financial assets.

Therefore, tax planning including various jurisdictions is as important as wealth planning.

MARKETS

Stocks

Stock markets are in the course of finishing a correction up. It could take another week or two. Once finished, we will see rapid falls across the globe to new lows.

Metals

The precious metals are in a strong uptrend. The 2011 high for gold in dollars will soon be reached. All other currencies have surpassed the 2011-12 high in gold in the last two years and so will gold in dollars. Remember that corrections are always part of a sound uptrend.

It is totally irrelevant what price gold reaches in worthless paper money whether it is Sinclair’s $58,000 or my 18-year-old prediction of $10,000 in today’s money. Time will tell.

But it is critical to hold physical gold as protection against a currency system and a financial system which are in the process of falling apart.

*  *  *

 end
J JOHNSON ON  THE COMEX SHENANIGANS

ttps://www.jsmineset.com/2020/05/29/we-got-a-lot-of-strange-going-on/

We Got A Lot of Strange Going On!

Posted May 29th, 2020 at 9:02 AM (CST) by J. Johnson & filed under General Editorial.

Great and Wonderful Friday Morning Folks,

       Gold is higher again in the early morning with the trade at $1,742.10, up $13.10 and right close to the high at $1,742.90 with the low at $1,725.30. Silver is leading percentage wise with its trade at $18.26, up 29.3 cents with the high at $18.34 and the low at $17.81. The US Dollar seems to be losing its gravitational pull to par with the trade at 98.035, down 33.7 points and right by it’s low at 98.015 with the high at 98.55. Of course, all this was done while we slept, by Algo’s, before 5 am pst, the Comex open, the London close, and after one heck of a great week for precious metals.

      We see nothing but gains in the emerging markets this Friday. In Venezuela, Gold is now priced at 17,399.22 Bolivar proving a gain of 32.95 with Silver gaining 3.496 Bolivar with its price at 182.372. Argentina’s currency now has Gold valued at 119,086.58 Peso’s giving the noble metal an additional 346.03 Peso’s gain with Silver gaining 25.10 A-Peso’s with its price at 1,248.25. The Turkish Lira’s price for Gold now rests at 11,901.29 showing a gain of 50.03 Lira’s from yesterday’s price with Silver at 124.738, gaining 2.665 T-Lira.

      Today is First Notice Day in June’s precious metals deliveries. This means 100% margins are applied to all trades inside the delivery months (with the exception of spread traders who get a special manipulating discount) with today’s starting count for Silver at 365 and with a Volume of 4 posted up on the board with a single price at $17.865. The Delivery months Open Interest dropped by 9 leaving a request for 1,825,000 ounces standing for delivery. While the prices climb, so does the Open Interest as another 4,018 more short contracts had to be added into the mix or Silver would be substantially higher than it is now, bringing the total to 163,068 positions, against the price and as the deliveries continue.

      June Gold’s Delivery Demands now stand at 47,319 contracts proving 13,949 positions jumped the delivery boat from yesterday, with today’s early morning trading range between $1,728.50 and $1,715.10 with the last trade at the high. That’s still a real high number that Comex has to deal with as we watch the world continuing to see the demands for protection gain, as the world’s printer’s fiddle to the flames. We got a lot of strange going on between the 2 precious metals as Gold’s Open Interest continues to decline as another 2,565 left the trade leaving a total of 510,908 Overnighters still in the trade.

     Here’s more on “the strange in the game”. Gold’s Overall Open Interest since last Friday fell by 19,235 Contracts. Silver’s OI gained 7,707 within the same time period. It maybe the Resolutes are stretching this inter-commodity-spread between the two to see where the weaknesses really are. Regardless, the buys are solid and the miners maybe starting to refine again (maybe). It will take a long time to see the flow rise up to what it was before the shutdown. Nothing will stop the collapse of the economic system, all we have to do is wait it out as the anger rises, and as the media misdirects once again.

     We need to pray for calm, the rush to anger winds up never being a good thing. Rioters do no one any good, but for now they have the stage and it’s all being recorded. All the video cameras and drones, will highlight those that rob, burn, and beat others, who had nothing to do with the event that caused this. In the meantime, make the weekend outstanding! Stay away from the crowds, keep your second Amendment right at arm’s length, and stay calm. We’ll make it through the mess the media is using to inflate the hate. Stay safe, keep calm, and as always

Stay Strong!

Jeremiah Johnson

END

First it was HSBC that lost huge amounts of money on the day that gold went huge future/spot.  Now we see Canada’s CIBC also got caught

(Reuters)

Canada’s CIBC lost $64 million in a day on paper in gold market turmoil

LONDON (Reuters) – Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CIBC) took a mark-to-market trading loss of C$88.2 million ($64 million) in one day in March due mainly to volatility in the gold market, the bank said in its second-quarter earnings report on Thursday.

CIBC is not alone in being caught out when the coronavirus outbreak interrupted gold supply routes and gold futures prices in New York shot above London spot prices.

HSBC said earlier this month it suffered paper losses of about $200 million on one day in March.

The losses by both banks are theoretical, reflecting the value of positions they held. They would become real only if the bank exited the positions when their value was low.

CIBC said the loss happened on March 24 and was “mostly attributable to our precious metals trading business”.

It was by far the biggest trading loss of any day since May last year, its report showed. CIBC said it was mostly recouped in April.

Gold trading banks plan to reduce their gold futures positions significantly on CME Group’s Comex exchange in New York because they fear further price volatility, Reuters reported on Thursday.

A reduction of activity by banks on Comex, the world’s largest gold futures market, would increase the relative importance of London as a trading centre and raise costs for thousands of gold investors who use the exchange.

-END-

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early FRIDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 7.1351/ GETTING VERY DANGEROUSLY PAST 7:1

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  7.1567   /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 6.13 POINTS OR 0.22%

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 171.29 POINTS OR 0.74%

 

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 38.42 POINTS OR 0.18%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL RED/

 

 

 

USA dollar index DOWN TO 97.99/Euro RISES TO 1.1138

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: RISES TO. +.01/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 107.12/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 32.85 and Brent: 35.43

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE UP/OFF- SHORE: UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO -.44%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 1.44% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.55%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.85: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 1.50

3k Gold at $1732.20 silver at: 17.73   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 7/100 in roubles/dollar) 70.45

3m oil into the 32 dollar handle for WTI and 35 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 107.12 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9624 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0719 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to 0.44%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 0.67% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 1.43%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 6.8351..

Futures Drop As Markets Brace For Trump’s China Response

 

President Donald Trump’s response to China’s national security legislation for Hong Kong, threatening to take the shine off a monster week – and month – for Wall Street, which pushed the S&P above 3,000 and the 200 DMA for the first time since March. Treasuries gained alongside most European bonds, yet the dollar unexpectedly slumped on what many said was month-end FX flows.

U.S. stock indexes sold off late on Thursday’s after algos discovered that Trump was going to make a statement on Friday about China, one which had been scheduled since Monday. Trump has vowed a tough US response to China’s move, which many fear could erode some of the U.S. economic privileges that Hong Kong enjoys. 

Amid Sino-US jitters, Europe’s Stoxx 600 fell for the first time in five days, sliding as much as 1.3%, with almost all industry groups in the red. Autos, travel and bank shares slide the most, while telecom is only sector to advance. A rebound laggards resume position at the bottom after rallying hard in recent sessions. As BMO notes, German ex-auto retail sales volumes fell much less-than-expected in April (-5.3% MoM). Multiple data points from a few major economies have been less bad than feared in Q2. Sweden’s merchandise trade surplus increased by 2 billion kronor in April, though exports and imports both collapsed. The Riksbank does not need to worry about an overly strong SEK yet, but Sweden’s export sector is exposed to a weak European economy and global trade decoupling.

Asian stocks fell, led by finance and industrials, after rising in the last session. Markets in the region were mixed, with Jakarta Composite and Shanghai Composite rising, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 and Japan’s Topix Index falling. Trading volume for MSCI Asia Pacific Index members was 53% above the monthly average for this time of the day. The Topix declined 0.9%, with IBC and Nissan falling the most. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.2%, with Zhongchang Big Data and Shaanxi Broadcast & TV Network Intermediary Group posting the biggest advances

While global stocks have mostly shrugged off escalating tensions between Washington and Beijing until now, confident Trump would not do anything to jeopardize the market’s gains, Trump’s recent actions appear to have spooked investors. They come amid growing good news on the economic front as governments add to stimulus and ease lockdown measures in the wake of the coronavirus. Meanwhile, clues on the next stages for Federal Reserve policy may also come Friday, when Chairman Jerome Powell participates in a virtual discussion.

“I’m very cautious on my medium and even long-term outlook for the markets,” Kate Jaquet, a portfolio manager at Seafarer Capital Partners LLC, said on Bloomberg TV. “I perceive there to be a very large disconnect between stock-market valuations across the globe and underlying company fundamentals.”

Meanwhile, in an escalation in the feud between Trump and Twitter, a day after the president signed the order threatening social media firms with new regulations over free speech, Twitter hid a tweet from the President and accused him of breaking its rules by “glorifying violence.” Twitter shares were down about 0.9% in pre-market trading.

In rates, Treasuries were underpinned on last trading day of the month by pension fund flows, which features a heavy slate of US economic data, a White House news conference on China, comments by Fed Chair Powell and a large Treasury Index duration extension. Yields lower by 0.5bp to 2.5bp across the curve with 2s10s flatter by 1.1bp and 5s30s little changed; 10-year yields around 0.66%, richer by 2bp vs Thursday’s close.Curve is slightly flatter with 20-year bond outperforming. Session low yields were reached during Asia session as USD/JPY slid into the Tokyo fixing. Bunds, gilts cheaper by 0.5bp vs. Treasuries.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.4%, with the greenback falling against most of its major peers. Leveraged funds shorted the greenback ahead of Trump’s conference in view of sliding oil, stock prices and month-end flows, according to Asia-based FX traders. EUR-funded FX carry pairs received some of the biggest lifts (TRY -0.7%, RUB -0.6%). Given the prospect of worsening Sino/US tensions and additional RMB depreciation, broad USD weakness seems all the more peculiar.

In commodities, WTI and Brent crude futures continue to ebb lower in early European trade. However, losses remain modest thus far with WTI July eyeing USD 33/bbl (vs. high 33.77/bbl) to the downside whilst Brent August drifts lower towards USD 35.50/bbl – having already dipped below the level to a base at 35.41/bbl (vs. high 36/bbl). Again, fundamentals largely surround US-China tensions in the absence of OPEC updates and in the run-up to the JMMC/OPEC/OPEC+ meetings on June 8th, 9th and 10th respectively, whilst reports yesterday alluded to Russian companies hesitant to extend current curtailments past the agreed-upon end-June.  Iron ore surged past $100 a ton as supply woes in Brazil coincide with sustained, robust demand in top steel producer China. Gold jump as the dollar slumped.

To the day ahead now, and there are a number of highlights to look out for. From central banks, we’ll hear from Fed Chair Powell and the ECB’s Visco. Data releases include German retail sales for April as well as the flash estimate of Euro Area CPI for May. Meanwhile on the other side of the Atlantic, there’s personal income and personal spending from the US for April, along with May’s MNI Chicago PMI and the final University of Michigan sentiment reading. Canada will also be releasing their GDP for March.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.6% to 3,021.00
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 1.2% to 351.28
  • MXAP down 0.3% to 150.43
  • MXAPJ down 0.07% to 474.25
  • Nikkei down 0.2% to 21,877.89
  • Topix down 0.9% to 1,563.67
  • Hang Seng Index down 0.7% to 22,961.47
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.2% to 2,852.35
  • Sensex up 0.2% to 32,259.98
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 1.6% to 5,755.69
  • Kospi up 0.05% to 2,029.60
  • German 10Y yield fell 1.8 bps to -0.437%
  • Euro up 0.2% to $1.1103
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 7.6 bps to 1.255%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 2.1 bps to 0.559%
  • Brent futures down 3.3% to $34.12/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.3% to $1,723.69
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.3% to 98.12

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • Japanese factory output dropped in April by the most since the 2011 tsunami and retail sales slid sharply as the coronavirus froze demand at home and abroad and the recession deepened
  • Stocks slipped and U.S. futures edged lower on Friday as President Donald Trump’s planned press conference on China threatened to further stoke tensions between the world’s two largest economies. Treasuries gained along with most European bonds.
  • German Chancellor Angela Merkel is preparing a second phase of stimulus of between 50 billion euros ($55 billion) and 100 billion euros to turbo-charge the economy’s recovery from the coronavirus crisis, according to a person with knowledge of the matter
  • The death toll in India has surpassed the number of lives lost in China, while Brazil’s cases hit another daily record as hot spots shift to developing countries ill-equipped to contain its spread. Latin America now accounts for 40% of daily virus deaths as cases surge in countries from Mexico to Peru
  • Next week’s round of Brexit talks between the European Union and the U.K. will be decisive for whether the two sides reach an agreement over their future trading relationship, according to the EU’s chief negotiator, Michel Barnier
  • Boris Johnson says Britons can meet outside as Cummings Row Lingers
  • Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam issued a letter to the city’s people asking them to understand and support national security legislation that has sparked the biggest protests since last year and fresh concerns about future autonomy from China
  • Oil trimmed its biggest monthly advance on record as crude was swept up in the broader negative sentiment around deteriorating U.S.-China relations, even as historic supply cuts tighten the market

Asia-Pac indices mostly declined following the late selling pressure on Wall St. after President Trump announced to conduct a press conference regarding China later today, while weak data releases and month-end factors added to the lacklustre risk tone. ASX 200 (-1.6%) underperformed with the declines led by Financials and Industrials although gold miners bucked the overall trend after the recent rebound in the precious metal. Nikkei 225 (-0.2%) was also negative after a slew of data releases including the largest Y/Y decline in Retail Sales since 1998 and a wider than expected contraction in Industrial Production, that forced the government to cut its assessment on industrial production which it labelled as ‘decreasing rapidly’ for the first time since November 2008. In addition, large Japanese automakers suffered after output in the sector fell by a record 33% M/M and Nissan posted its worst loss in 2 decades. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (-0.7%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.2%) began subdued ahead of President Trump’s press conference on China which follows the NPC passage of the Hong Kong national security legislation, but with the mainland showing signs of resilience after another firm liquidity operation by the PBoC which injected CNY 670bln of funds this week through reverse repos following a near 2-month hiatus. Finally, 10yr JGBs were rangebound with prices uninspired despite upside in T-notes and the mostly negative risk tone, as well as the BoJ’s presence in the market for JPY 840bln of JGBs with 3yr-25yr maturities.

Top Asian News

  • Malaysia’s Stocks Set for Bull Market as Glove Makers Surge
  • BOJ Tweaks Buying Ranges, Frequency for Short Bonds in June Plan
  • China’s JD.com, NetEase Win Hong Kong Approval for Listings

European equities (Eurostoxx 50 -0.6%) have bucked their recent trend of starting the session off on the front-foot as stocks stage a pullback heading into month-end. Despite being a key theme throughout the week (where stocks have gained), US-China tensions are hampering sentiment early doors in Europe as markets brace themselves for US President Trump’s press conference later today (time TBC) on China. Ahead of this press conference, China has been on the offensive this morning reiterating that they are willing to take countermeasures against the US in relation to its actions over Hong Kong, urged Canada to release the Huawei CFO immediately and threatened to take countermeasures against Britain if it offers permanent residency to Hong Kong citizens. Sectoral performance in Europe thus far has seen a reversal of some of the trends throughout the week with travel & leisure names underperforming today with Tui (-7%) a notable laggard after the Co’s UK unit has cancelled all its foreign holidays until 1 July, and some that were not due to depart until November. Other movers in the sector include Carnival (-6.3%), Deutsche Lufthansa (-4.3%), easyJet (-4.2%), IAG (-4.2%) and Air France (-2.8%); note, the travel & leisure sector trades higher by 7.8% for the week. Elsewhere, to the downside, Rolls Royce (-9.1%) sits at the foot of the Stoxx 600 after the Co. was downgraded to junk by S&P amid disruptions from COVID-19. Renault (-4.9%) shares are hampering the Automobile sector after the Co. announced it is to reduce its headcount by 14.6k over three years in an attempt to save over EUR 2bln, but with the plan implementation costing EUR 1.2bln. Also, in a reversal of trends seen throughout the week, the Stoxx 600 banking sector is trading lower by 1.8%, albeit holds onto gains of 7.8% since Monday.

Top European News

  • Europe Autos Slide Amid Renault Revamp, German Aid Postponement
  • Banks Target June for ThyssenKrupp Elevator $9 Billion Debt Sale
  • This Italian Bond Offering Couldn’t Have Been Timed Better
  • Italy Shouldn’t Expect ‘Free’ Help From Europe, Visco Says

In FX, the Dollar index continues to descend with month-end flows cited as one of the main factors. DXY again fell below its 200 DMA (98.505) from a high of 98.549 and thereafter dipped below the 55 WMA (98.191) before printing a current base just under at 98.170. The State-side data slate sees April PCE Price Index, but Fed Chair Powell’s webcast (1600BST) and President Trump’s announcement on China (time TBC) will likely garner today’s focus and set the themes. On that note, tensions between the two largest economies see no signs of subsiding, and rhetoric remains harsh. Nonetheless, the Yuan has nursed its overnight losses with the USD/CNH sub-7.1700 having printed an APAC high at 7.1766.

  • JPY, AUD, SEK – All beneficiaries of the USD pullback with the Yen outperforming potentially on safe-haven tailwinds. USD/JPY sees itself on the softer side of the current 107.06-71 daily band, having briefly dipped below its 21 DMA at 107.19 as it inches closer towards the 107.00 psych mark. AUD/USD probes 0.6650 as it eyes its 200 DMA (0.6656), albeit pair topped but failed to close above the level for four consecutive sessions. SEK also trades on the firmer side after shrugging off a QQ Q1 GDP beat as the annualised figure missed. EUR/SEK dipped below 10.5100 to session lows from a high of 10.5500.
  • EUR, GBP – Mixed trade in the core European currencies with some attributing month-end demand propping up EUR/GBP past 0.9000 to a high of 0.9030 (vs. low 0.8980). As such, Cable briefly took out 1.2300 to the downside, exposing the 21 and 55 DMAs at 1.2290 and 1.2272 respectively. Meanwhile, the Single currency gleans support from an offered Dollar and has extended its move above 1.1100 after probing a short-term Fib level at 1.1111, with little initial reaction to in-line EZ flash CPI. EUR/USD opex today sees some EUR 1.1bln between 1.1145-55 – formidable against the month-end background.
  • CAD, NOK, NZD – The G10 laggards with CAD and NOK failing to reap rewards from the softer Buck amid weaker oil prices – USD/CAD posts mild gains above 1.3750 in a contained range as the pair eyes Canadian Q1 GDP figures. Similarly, EUR/NOK trades flat at 10.8400 in a 10.8170-8500 parameter. The Kiwi’s underperformance meanwhile could be a function of AUD/NZD regaining ground above 1.0700. NZD/USD trades on either side of 0.6200 awaiting the next catalyst.

In commodities, WTI and Brent crude futures continue to ebb lower in early European trade. However, losses remain modest thus far with WTI July eyeing USD 33/bbl (vs. high 33.77/bbl) to the downside whilst Brent August drifts lower towards USD 35.50/bbl – having already dipped below the level to a base at 35.41/bbl (vs. high 36/bbl). Again, fundamentals largely surround US-China tensions in the absence of OPEC updates and in the run-up to the JMMC/OPEC/OPEC+ meetings on June 8th, 9th and 10th respectively, whilst reports yesterday alluded to Russian companies hesitant to extend current curtailments past the agreed-upon end-June. Furthermore, Russia’s Rosneft reportedly told the Russian Energy Ministry that it would be hard to maintain cuts to the end of the year as it does not have enough crude to ship to customers part of long-term supply deals, sources state. Elsewhere, spot gold meanders around yesterday’s levels having had seen a session of gains on the back of potential trade-related allocations. The yellow metal resides in mildly positive territory around USD 1720/oz ahead of yesterday’s USD 1728/oz high. Copper prices remain subdued amid the broader risk aversion as prices threaten a test of USD 2.4/lb to the downside.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Advance Goods Trade Balance, est. $65.0b deficit, prior $64.2b deficit, revised $64.4b deficit
  • 8:30am: Retail Inventories MoM, est. -0.8%, prior 0.9%
  • 8:30am: Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. -0.7%, prior -0.8%
  • 8:30am: Personal Income, est. -6.0%, prior -2.0%
  • 8:30am: Personal Spending, est. -12.8%, prior -7.5%
  • 8:30am: Real Personal Spending, est. -12.9%, prior -7.3%
  • 8:30am: PCE Deflator MoM, est. -0.6%, prior -0.3%
  • 8:30am: PCE Deflator YoY, est. 0.5%, prior 1.3%
  • 8:30am: PCE Core Deflator YoY, est. 1.1%, prior 1.7%
  • 9:45am: MNI Chicago PMI, est. 40, prior 35.4
  • 10am: U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 74, prior 73.7
  • 10am: U. of Mich. Current Conditions, est. 84, prior 83; Expectations, est. 68.4, prior 67.7

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

10 weeks ago as schools were shut here in the UK, we were a bit worried about my daughter’s reaction to it and on the first day at home we decided she deserved an afternoon ice cream as it was such a lovely day. A one-off treat on a rare warm March day. It wouldn’t last. 10 weeks, virtually no rain, and 70 ice creams later she’s going back to her nursery school on Monday and we’ve no idea how to wean her off her addiction. The weather just got hotter and hotter and it was harder and harder to say no with not much for her to do. There is going to be some almighty come down from the sugar over the next few days!

Over the same period, sugar has been fueling the equity rally too, but yesterday we saw some evidence that even while there is an abundance of liquidity present and economic data seems to be improving, there are still potential landmines out there for risk assets. The S&P 500 fell over 1% in the last hour or so of trading, as tensions between the US and China continued to escalate. It finished the day marginally lower after President Trump announced that he will host a news conference on China later today. The agenda is unclear but given the recent mood and legislation that has passed through Congress it is likely to be confrontational. The US and China have been trading blows for over a week now, with the latest round starting early yesterday when the National People’s Congress approved security legislation for Hong Kong, which follows a number of recent protests in the city. In response, the governments of the US, UK, Canada and Australia issued a joint statement, which said that the “decision to impose a new national security law on Hong Kong lies in direct conflict with its international obligations under the principles of the legally-binding, UN-registered Sino-British Joint Declaration.” Furthermore, in a sign that US hostility to China is by no means limited to President Trump and the Republicans, the Democratic speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi, referred to President Xi yesterday as a “very oppressive tyrant”.

In terms of the moves, the S&P 500 fell -0.21%. The S&P 500 now has not been able to rally four consecutive days since early February, even though yesterday was the third time the index has rallied three days in a row this month alone. The NASDAQ was down -0.46% as tech continues to underperform slightly. It was an old-fashioned risk-off pullback, with defensives like Utilities and Consumer Staples the best-performing industry groups, while the winners of the last 2 days (Autos, Banks, and Energy) were among the worst-performing stocks. Europe saw a strong risk-on day as they had long been closed by the time US equities traded lower. The STOXX 600 ended up +1.64%, while the DAX also climbed +1.06% in what was its 9th move higher in the last 10 sessions.

The positivity in European markets yesterday was also seen in fixed income, where peripheral sovereign bonds continued to rally. Indeed, by the close, the spread of 10yr Italian debt over bunds had come down by -7.2bps to a 2-month low of 184.4bps, while Spanish (-6.1bps), Portuguese (-8.7bps) and Greek (-6.7bps) spreads also fell to two-month lows. US 10yr Treasuries yields were up +0.8bps to 0.690%, bunds were roughly unchanged at -0.419%, while 10yr gilt yields rose +1.7bps to 0.21%.

Staying with fixed income, Craig in my team reported the remarkable stat that over the last few days US IG credit issuance hit one trillion dollars for 2020. According to his note, this is 55% higher than the record issuance year (2017) at this stage and 92% above the same point last year. His note also highlights rel val opportunities in on-the-run bonds versus off-the-runs as a result of this issuance binge. See it here.

A quick check on markets this morning shows that risk has continued to struggle for the most part with the Nikkei (-0.35%), Hang Seng (-0.71%) and Kospi (-0.42%) all down. Chinese bourses are, however, little changed having pared earlier losses while futures on the S&P 500 are down -0.38%.

In terms of overnight news, the Times has reported that the UK has approached the US about creating a club of nations that would include the G7 nations plus Australia, South Korea and India, in order to reduce their reliance on China for 5G wireless technology. The article states that the move is designed to funnel public investments in advanced wireless research toward companies that are based within those 10 countries and was prompted by concerns over the dominance of Huawei. Meanwhile, President Trump signed an executive order that seeks to limit liability protections social-media companies enjoy. Mr. Trump told reporters that his order “calls for new regulations under section 230 of the Communications Decency Act to make it that social media companies that engage in censoring or any political conduct will not be able to keep their liability shield.”

In other news, Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam wrote an open letter urging the city’s citizens to support the national security legislation saying the law “will only target an extremely small minority of illegal and criminal acts and activities.” She also said that “External forces have intensified their interference in Hong Kong’s internal affairs, passed laws relating to Hong Kong and flagrantly glorified the illegal acts of radicals, all of which seriously jeopardize our nation’s sovereignty, security and development interests.”

Back to yesterday and prior to the late pullback, yesterday’s earlier risk-on was given further support by data that showed that the US economy might be turning a corner, with the number of continuing jobless claims falling for the first time since the pandemic began, suggesting that we might be past the worst of the labour market damage. The numbers showed that continuing claims fell to 21.052m in the week through May 16, down from 25.073m the previous week, and the insured unemployment rate for the same week was down to 14.5%, compared with 17.1% the week previously. Nevertheless, before we get too excited, the initial jobless claims number for the week through May 23 still came in at 2.123m, so there’s still a long way from being back to normality.

Other US data came in better than expected, even if that nowadays means the numbers were bad rather than dire. The preliminary April number for nondefence capital goods orders (excluding aircraft and parts) fell by ‘only’ -5.8%, which was some way above the -10.0% decline expected, while durable goods orders excluding transportation were down -7.4 per cent, contrary to a -15.0% expected decline.

Meanwhile, one of the 9 members on the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, Michael Saunders, said that “It is safer to err on the side of easing somewhat too much … rather than ease too little and find the economy gets stuck in a low-inflation rut.” Investors are still pricing in a change that the BoE will move interest rates into negative territory in early 2021. Looking elsewhere, we had an unexpected rate cut from Poland, which cut its main rate to 0.10%, as well as Nigeria, which lowered rates down to 12.50%.

Other news worth mentioning from yesterday includes Germany preparing for a second phase of stimulus of between EUR50bn and EUR 100bn, according to Bloomberg. The report also added that Finance minister Olaf Scholz and his Social Democrat group want spending at the upper end of that range, while Merkel’s ruling conservative bloc is pushing back to avoid too much debt. The proposals are likely to be presented at a meeting of coalition leaders in Berlin on Tuesday.

Wrapping up with yesterday’s other data, and the European Commission’s economic sentiment indicator rose slightly from its record low of 64.9 in April, up to 67.5. That said, that’s still well below the 103.4 reading from February. Meanwhile the preliminary reading of German CPI in May came in at +0.5% on the EU’s harmonised measure, its slowest rate since August 2016.

To the day ahead now, and there are a number of highlights to look out for. From central banks, we’ll hear from Fed Chair Powell and the ECB’s Visco. Data releases include German retail sales for April as well as the flash estimate of Euro Area CPI for May. Meanwhile on the other side of the Atlantic, there’s personal income and personal spending from the US for April, along with May’s MNI Chicago PMI and the final University of Michigan sentiment reading. Canada will also be releasing their GDP for March.

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)FRIDAY MORNING/ THURSDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 6.13 POINTS OR 0.22%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 171.29 POINTS OR 0.74%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 38.42 POINTS OR 0.18%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 1.44%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 7.1351 /Oil UP TO 57.21 dollars per barrel for WTI and 64.13 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.1351 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.1567 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY PAST 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea//the globe//Coronavirus update

South Korea Closes Schools Just Days After Reopening As New Cases Spike, Africa Confirms Another 5.5k Cases: Live Updates

Summary:

  • Africa reports another 5.5k cases
  • SK closes 250+ schools just days after reopening
  • Nearly 80 new cases reported Thursday, with another 50+ on Friday
  • France declares Paris no longer a ‘red’ zone’
  • UK loosens some restrictions on household visitors
  • Russia reports record jump in deaths
  • Brazil reports record jump in cases, deaths
  • Philippines reports record daily jump in cases as Manila reopens

* * *

Update (0830ET): About 5,500 more more people have tested positive for the coronavirus in Africa since Thursday, according to the WHO’s regional office on the continent.

The latest update from the UN health agency’s Africa office showed that there were now 128,500 confirmed infections across the continent’s 54 countries, which have a combined pop. of ~1.3 billion people. Of these ~130k who have tested positive, more than 53,000 have recovered and about 3,700 have died.

NGOs have praised African leaders for coming together to combat the virus, and also breathed a sigh of relief as the devastation that many once predicted seems to never have arrived.

* * *

As more US states see the number of newly confirmed cases – and, in some states, deaths as well – climb more than a month after Georgia and a handful of other states took the first aggressive steps toward reopening, South Korea – which has also seen cases tick higher over the past two weeks – has closed hundreds of schools just days after reopening them.

After Denmark became the first EU member to reopen its schools earlier this week, South Korea has decided to return students to their remote learning routines after confirming 79 new cases – the highest daily total in two months – on Thursday (cases are reported with a 24-hour delay). A total of 251 schools in Bucheon have now been closed. And a further 117 schools in the capital Seoul have also postponed their re-opening after one student was found to be infected.

Most of these new cases have been linked to a distribution center outside Seoul, in the city of Bucheon, which is run by e-commerce giant Coupang, South Korea’s Amazon (for lack of a better comparison)

According to the BBC, officials have said the facility was not strictly complying with infection control measures. During an inspection, health officials discovered traces of Covid-19 on workers’ shoes and clothes.

The country is now bracing for potentially hundreds of more cases as it tests thousands of workers. Some 58 new cases were recorded on Friday, bringing the total number of cases nationwide to 11,402.

Public parks and museums across Seoul and the surrounding area have now once again been closed, businesses are once again being asked to allow workers to work from home, and people are once again being asked to avoid mass gatherings.

As we reported last night, Brazil reported a record jump in new cases and deaths on Thursday, as more critics of President Jair Bolsonaro are accusing the president of deliberately ignoring the virus and taking other steps to encourage a return to street violence and unrest – so that his administration would be justified in a crackdown that would return Brazil to de facto dictatorship.

In the Philippines, residents in Manila will see their lockdown – one of the toughest and longest in the world – ease from Monday, as we reported earlier this week, even though the country reported a new record jump in cases on Thursday, with 539 new infections reported, bringing the total to 15,588 and 921 deaths.

In the UK, while the number of deaths remains stubbornly high, PM Boris Johnson has said members of different households will be allowed to meet on patios and in gardens, but must remain 2 meters apart.

But it wasn’t all bad news: The risks posed by the virus have been reduced to “orange” across Paris, according to French PM Edouard Philippe. Still, Paris lags the majority of French regions, which have been designated “green.”

Russia recorded a record jump in coronavirus-related deaths on Friday, with 232 in the past day, pushing the nationwide total to 4,374.

Russian health officials said 8,572 new infections had been confirmed, bringing the national tally to 387,623, according to TASS, leaving Russia with the third-highest total in the world. Of these deaths, 50 were recorded in Dagestan, 20 in Moscow and the surrounding area, and 11 in St. Petersburg, while North Ossetia, Krasnoyarsk and Oryol reported 6 each.

end

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

Japan

A big Japanese bank which specializes in CLO’s lost huge amount of money in failed USA CLO’s

(zerohedge)

Japanese Farmers Lose $3.7 Billion In US CLOs, Are Done Investing In Crazy Products

The last time we looked at the participation of Japanese banks in the CLO market, we found that they have historically been some of the largest buyers in the structured credit space, as many were forced to take on more risk in search of yield to cover rising hedge costs as the USD yield curve flattens late in the cycle. And here one bank stood out: Norinchukin Bank – better known as Nochu – a cooperative that invests the deposits of millions of Japanese farmers and fishermen, and which has emerged as the biggest CLO whale – had bought $10 billion of CLOs in the U.S. and Europe in the last three months of 2018, accounting for almost half of the top-rated issuance for the period.

How big is Nochu in the US CLO market? Let’s just say there is no single bigger player in the $700 billion CLO market, where until very recently it was buying as much as half of the highest-rated bonds in the fourth quarter of 2019 in Europe and the U.S, owning over $70 billion in CLOs, more than twice as much as the two other largest players combined, Wells Fargo and JPM, each of which owns about $30 billion.

Then, following the late 2018 crash in the leveraged loan market, Nochu’s appetite for structured credit quietly faded in mid-2019 after Japanese authorities tightened financial regulations.

Alas, if Nochu though that its CLO troubles were behind it, it was in for the shock of a lifetime, because following the crash in the CLO market due to the recent covid shutdowns which have sparked an unprecedented crisis among the leveraged loan market, crippling cash flows and priming a bankruptcy wave the likes of which have never been seen before…

… the company that invests on behalf of millions of Japanese farmers, fishermen and retirees, suffered a record JPY400 billion ($3.7 billion) loss, and more importantly, announced it was no longer going to invest in such crazy products and was pulling out of the CLO market.

“We will limit making new investments” in CLOs, Chief Executive Kazuto Oku said.

Norinchukin suffered nearly 5% losses on its $71 billion CLO portfolio despite being invested exclusively in the AAA-tranche of CLOs.

It was only recently that Wall Street found out about the massive role Nochu played in the CLO market, where it hoped to avoid Japan’s negative interest rates by buying “safe” structured credit tranches. Like most investors in the safe parts of CLOs, the banks have sought extra yield for the same level of risk. That strategy blew up in the financial crisis when supposedly safe securities backed by mortgages caused big losses for banks; and then it blew up again during the coronavirus crisis, when as we reported last month, something supposedly impossible happened: “A CLO Failed Its AAA Overcollateralization Test.

This took place as an avalanche of default slammed the corporate bond and leveraged loan markets – with companies like Hertz and J.C. Penney filing Chapter 11 bankruptcy – prompting Moody to place the ratings on 859 securities from 358 U.S. CLOs, worth some $22 billion, on review for downgrade.

But where it gets really scary is that the “diversification” model behind CLOs, which we dubbed modern-day alchemy

… no longer works when there is a uniform wave of defaults wiping out the cash flows of most companies that make up the structure obligation. The result could be a total wipe out to the very top of the bond stack created from the underlying junk loans.

Rod Dubitsky, who headed U.S. asset-backed securities research at Credit Suisse until 2009, confirmed as much saying that a critical risk right now is that the mathematical models that created the safe securities didn’t take into account a scenario like the coronavirus pandemic. Dubitsky argued back then that subprime mortgage-backed securities were due for a wave of downgrades, and he recently issued the same warning for triple-A rated CLO bonds. In a recent paper, he claimed that the securities don’t deserve such high ratings because of the impact of the pandemic on the economy.

“The entire concept of triple-A CLOs goes out the window because there is not much diversification left when the entire portfolio is subject to a global economy that is in deep recession,” Dubitsky told the WSJ in an interview, confirming precisely what we said three weeks ago.

Right or wrong, Dubitsky’s thesis will be tested very soon: in recent weeks, Moody’s, S&P and Fitch have collectively placed more than 1,600 bonds from mostly lower rated CLOs on review for possible downgrades.

Meanwhile, should other investors follow in Nochu’s footsteps and exit the CLO market, it could have catastrophic consequences for Wall Street, where CLOs have been the biggest source of funding for private-equity buyouts and a source of funds for struggling companies that are owned by PE firms. But there is another risk: if too many loans held by the funds are downgraded to the lowest levels, the funds may not be able to buy new loans, further tightening the lending markets.

But going back to Nochu, anb its chief, Oku, he sounded only slightly chastened by the losses, saying it was his job to extract return from the bank’s portfolio and pass it on to members.

Ah yes, the old risk vs return calculus which unfortunately no longer works under central planning, as risk is either zero for along time, or virtually unlimited when central bank credibility is threatened.

Speaking to the Journal, Oku didn’t say what specifically caused losses in his bank’s portfolio, but he held out hope that his holdings might keep their value even in a bad situation. In any case, the bank was stepping away from new investments in that market, he said.

“We will have to examine risks in two stages: how many U.S. companies will go bankrupt or file for chapter 11, and after that, in how many of these cases we will see AAA-rated CLOs being affected,” he said at a news conference.

Ironically, even as Nochu waves goodbye to CLOs, it refuses to admit just how much it has lost: the bank isn’t reflecting CLO losses on its bottom line, suggesting that the pain is only now starting for millions of japanese retirees and savers who had naively believed that investing money in the scam that is the US structured market will make someone, besides the Wall Street bankers who arranged them or the companies that issued them, richer.

Norinchukin acts as a central pool for funds gathered by local farming and fishing cooperatives throughout Japan, and it holds $600 billion in deposits from member cooperatives. It can use the money to make loans to companies in farming, forestry or fisheries, or it can simply invest it in global markets like any money manager, apparently hoping to make money on CLOs.

The irony is that Nochu may not even have had much of a choice: its problem for years has been a shortage of loan opportunities  – just the problem CLO managers love to fix –  leaving the money-management side of the business as the dominant one. The number of people working in agriculture as their main job has fallen 35% during the last decade, and those who remain are mostly over 65.

end

3 C CHINA

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

GREECE/TURKEY

Greece is now erecting a wall which will stop the Migrants located on the Turkey side to enter Europe through Greece

Erdogan is out of his mind…

(zerohedge)

 

Greece Sends Military To ‘Build The Wall’ Amid Renewed Turkish ‘Migrant Chaos’ Threats

Early this week we took note of the increasingly tense border dispute between historic longtime enemies Greece and Turkey, specifically concentrated along the Evros River which separates the two. Athens charged that Turkish troops had conducted a land grab at a site where the river level went down, altering its course, or essentially orchestrating a quiet military ‘invasion’ of sovereign Greek territory in progress.

 

Recent images from border crossing at Evros, via Greek City Times. 

At the camp there is now a small Turkish flag flying from a tree. Troops have rejected Greek demands to withdraw. It comes weeks after thousands of Syrian refugees failed to break through into Greece,” The Daily Mail has described of the dispute.

This also comes after months of Turkey’s Erdogan threatening to unleash Syrian refugee and migrant chaos on the EU — which he’s already made good on to a limited degree — resulting in clashes between Greek border patrols and an influx of Middle East migrants.

Erdogan’s blackmail targeting Greece and the EU has created soaring tensions between armed forces on each side of the border. In March Greece even began erecting huge concrete barriers at key crossings like the Kastanies crossing, given Turkish guards were letting throngs of asylum seekers pour through their side of the border. Needless to say, the ongoing militarization of what up until now has been a largely diplomatic arena fight presents the potential for a direct major flare-up of a border war.

Recent news footage out of Greece shows military patrols erecting make-shift border barriers:

And broadly, Athens significantly increased its naval and military personnel patrolling land and sea.

And now, as Voice of America observes, the conflict is again getting militarized amid another round of Turkish ‘blackmail’ threats:

Greece is mobilizing forces to boost defenses along its land frontiers with Turkey. The move as Turkey threatens to resume the flow of thousands of migrants to Europe through Greece. The deployment also follows plans by Greece to expand its border fence in the contentious border region.

Officials in Athens say they are deploying more than 400 specially trained officers, including riot police, in the northeast region of Evros.

The report notes there are already 1,100 Greek officers in the area placed on “code-red alert” status at a moment some 100,000 mainly Syrian refugees stand ready to push across the border.

Essentially Greece is moving to “build the wall” to make any near-term Turkish move to push migrants through a costlier, more difficult feat sure to back-fire — given that amid the COVID-19 pandemic crisis it would again result in thousands being stuck in a ‘no man’s land’ border area, with political pressure and spotlight again coming on Ankara to solve a crisis of its own making.

 

Carlos Latuff cartoon, 2011, when the proposal was first seriously discussed by lawmakers in Athens.

It further comes, as VOA emphasizes, just “as lockdown measures are now relaxing across Europe and beyond,” prompting Turkey’s foreign minister to say Tuesday that “migrants and refugees in his country may as well be preparing to make the move anew to Europe — a remark that alarmed officials in Athens.”

Greek Conservative lawmaker Tassos Hadjivassiliou told VOA the massive wall concept as a physical barrier is “a no-brainer” – explaining further that:

Once this fence goes up,  Turkey will be severely compromised of its ability to push through migrants. And if that happens, then Ankara will have lost its most powerful tool of leverage against Europe… and its chances, therefore, of clinching a new deal with Brussels, plus added financial support will fade.”

At the height of the crisis in March, local news crews captured scenes of heavy machinery on the Greek side of a key Evros crossing erecting massive concrete blocks, likely to serve as foundation for a broader, more expansive wall along the porous land border with Turkey.

The push for a border all is nothing new for Athens, first pursued seriously almost a decade ago despite broader EU criticism, but the latest developments related to Syria and Turkey – and the catastrophic 2015 migrant crisis, much of which Greece had to absorb – means Athens appears to now be fast-tracking such a project, given it’s calling up the military to do so under emergency status.

 end
Simon Black on how the uK and other countries are using an ancient feudal system law to seize money from bank accounts
(Simon Black)

UK Uses Feudal System Law To Seize £150 Million From Bank Accounts

Authored by Simon Black via SovereignMan.com,

During the summer of 1215 in a riverfront meadow near London, some of England’s top barons gathered to confront King John and force him to sign a contract guaranteeing their rights and freedoms.

The contract became known as the Magna Carta. And one of its key provisions (#43) gave the Barons protection against something called ‘escheat’.

In medieval times, ‘escheat’ referred to the property being forcibly passed to the King if its original owner died without heirs.

So if a Baron passed away without a son, his domain would pass by escheat back to the crown.

Over time, kings vastly expanded the use of escheat; anyone convicted of a crime would have their property seized by escheat. Occasionally someone’s son or daughter could be pressed into servitude by escheat.

It was like a medieval version of Civil Asset Forfeiture: the King took whatever he wanted, for any reason, and people had no rights.

By 1215, England’s noblemen were sick and tired of it, and they successfully forced King John to sign the Magna Carta.

Unfortunately for the other 99.9% of England’s population, most of the Magna Carta’s guarantees only applied to Barons and other noblemen.

Plain ole’ regular serfs still had their meager property plundered by the King, and by the noblemen themselves who had just fought to preserve their own rights at the expense of everyone else’s.

So if a feudal serf in England died without an heir, or was convicted of a crime, all his property was escheated to the local Lord, or to the King.

This became such big business in England that the government appointed special agents called ‘escheators’ in every single English county to oversee property confiscation every time someone passed away.

If there was any doubt at all whether or not the deceased had valid heirs, the escheator would seize the property immediately.

Amazingly enough, this ridiculous feudal custom still exists. And not just in England – in many countries around the world.

In just about every state in the Land of the Free, for example, your possessions, real estate, etc. are forfeited to the government if you die without heir.

Even bank accounts that are left dormant for some period of time – usually a few years – can be confiscated by the government.

But this is totally bizarre, because ‘dormant bank account’ rules can be incredibly loose. In many jurisdictions, for example, simply having some savings stashed away in a bank account that doesn’t have any other activity can put your funds at risk of being seized.

They actually still use the same word– escheat. So money in dormant bank accounts is escheated to the state.

To be fair, this practice has been relatively rare… until Covid. But now governments are starting to look at every source of funding they can get their hands on, including the medieval ones.

The British government recently announced that they had “unlocked” £150 million from dormant bank accounts, with cooperation from some of the biggest banks in the UK, all to help fight World War Covid.

And now the UK is looking to expand the practice beyond bank accounts; they’d like to be able to seize unclaimed financial assets (including stocks and bonds), insurance proceeds, and even dormant pension accounts.

This is a practice that literally dates back to the feudal system. And it reinforces a simple truth: you don’t really own anything if the government has the authority to take it.

I have no doubt the bureaucrats who came up with this idea have very good intentions.

After all, what nobler cause is there in this bizarre world of ours but to wage an endless crusade against the Coronavirus, no matter the cost?

They’re willing to do whatever it takes, spend whatever it takes, print as much money as it takes, and yes, even confiscate people’s private property, to rid the world of the virus.

This is our new reality: medieval serfdom.

*  *  *

END

IMPORTANT

Email:

Robert to me:

It seems everything, everywhere is a state of flux now

Several years ago when I was wandering around Europe, the debt problems were quite obvious as people looked to crypto currencies for growth and profits. There is current discussion behind the curtain in Europe to PREVENT capital flight from the euro to the dollar. Why, because the trickle is growing quickly into a stream that will become a roaring river.  Europe may now default on all outstanding debt, converting it to PERPETUAL BONDS that will never need to be redeemed, and only pay artificially low interest rates forever. It will not take long before people recognize what is happening as this has happened before and always resulted in a devaluation which is a true destruction of wealth. Liechtenstein and Switzerland remain an island using the Swiss Franc as does Britain with the pound. I wonder how long it will be before these currencies are in the same box as current thoughts about the USD. Certainly banks in these countries may have a field day of growth, assuming some access to surplus USD; OTHERWISE  it will be a missed opportunity.


Watch for lending to occur in Europe to export companies in USD only and not From traditional Bank Lenders in Europe, who are short on USD. This will be the only real life line for them. This should start to grow quickly in the fall as trend. By the middle of 2022  it will be a rout. Within several years Europe will be divided into classes of borrowers by credit finance availed.


The civil unrest is turning violent right on schedule. Months ago, I suggested that shutdowns had a life of their own in turning violent as people Can only accept so much, before lashing out. These lockdowns have destroyed so many jobs and the future of people which the government never even bothered to consider. The more governments try to pretend they did the right thing, the greater the violence will become. I anticipate that violence in society will grow everywhere as the true cost of the shutdowns becomes more apparent.
Earlier in the week, as I was driving I was stunned and shocked by seeing a lineup that went around the block to a local church food bank. This is in a community where such a thing would not normally be seen. And frankly in 5 years I have never seen such thing. The real depth of hurt is just starting to be visible in ways that one can see in one’s own community. Because witnessing such things is far more impactive than theoretical prediction.
As time passes and it becomes clearer by the day the falsehood of threat from this virus, one cannot help but wonder how wrong governments are about the impact from the shutdown we are in. Because just like the true is out about the virus, the truth will come forth about the seriousness of needless shutdowns. And just like we see now with regional governments saying, not our fault when it comes to deaths in seniors’ residences, we will likely see the same thing about the economy. Politicians never admit error, they just blame everyone else. Society the world over really deserves better.
END

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

 

6.Global Issues

 

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings FRIDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1138 UP .0061 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS//CORONAVIRUS/PANDEMIC /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /ALL RED

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 107.12 DOWN 0.520 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2361   UP   0.0043  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/

 

USA/CAN 1.3722 DOWN .0054 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  FRIDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE BY 61 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1138 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 6.13 POINTS OR 0.22% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 171.29 POINTS OR 0.74%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 1,44%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 171.29 POINTS OR 0.74%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 6.13 POINTS OR 0.22%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN. 1.44% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 38.42  POINTS OR 0.18%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1728.30

silver:$17.67-

Early FRIDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 0.69% !!! DOWN 3 IN POINTS from THURSDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 1.43 DOWN 3  IN BASIS POINTS from THURSDAY night.

USA dollar index early FRIDAY morning: 97.99 DOWN 40 CENT(S) from  THURSDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers FRIDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing  FRIDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.50% DOWN 4 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.01%  UP 1   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.56%//DOWN 2 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:1,50 UP 6 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 94 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.45% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.95% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR FRIDAY

Closing currency crosses for FRIDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1109  UP     .0033 or 33 basis points

USA/Japan: 107.76 UP .119 OR YEN DOWN 12  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2323 UP .0005 POUND UP 5  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 33 basis points to 1.3807

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 7.1373    ON SHORE  (DOWN)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  7.1641  (YUAN DOWN)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  6.8232 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +.01%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 3 IN basis points from THURSDAY at 0.66 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 1.44 DOWN 3 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 98.31 DOWN 8  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for FRIDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 142.19  2.29%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 194.28 POINTS OR 1.65%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 75.95 POINTS 1.59%

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 177.69 POINTS or 1.77%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 153.60 POINTS OR 0.84%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 33.45 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 35.73 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE FALLS:    70.62  THE CROSS LOWER BY 0.10 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE HIGHER BY 10 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.45 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  34.92//

 

 

BRENT :  37.34

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 0.65..down 5 basis points…

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 1.41..down 5 basis points..

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.1089 ( UP 12   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:107.78 UP .136 (YEN DOWN 14 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 98.37 DOWN 1 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.2329 UP 11  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 6.8313

 

 

the Russian rouble 70.37   UP 0.15 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( UP 15 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3782 DOWN 7 BASIS pts

 

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.45%

 

The Dow closed DOWN 17.53 POINTS OR 0.07%

 

NASDAQ closed UP 120.88 POINTS OR 1.29%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  13.53 CLOSED DOWN .44

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 0.350%//libor dropping like a stone

LIBOR/OIS: .287%

TED SPREAD: (LIBOR VS 3 MONTH TREASURY BILL: 215%

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

Stocks & Silver Soar In May As Oil Surges To Best Month Ever

Sell in May ‘Worked’…if you sold the S&P 500 at the open each day and closed the short at the close of the day-session. In May, The S&P 500 fell 22 points in aggregate from the open to the close (while gaining 134 points from the close to the open)

The US major stock indices were all higher in May, led by Transports (S&P lagged overall)…

Source: Bloomberg

May… summed up!

Today was a panic-bid in stocks after Trump appears to fold on his most aggressive threats to China…

On the week, Nasdaq managed to scramble back above unchanged today as the Dow led (and Trump’s lack of worst case scenario was the reason to buy stocks into the close…

 

Momentum outperformed Value in May but did see a major reversal this week…

Source: Bloomberg

FANG Stocks managed to hold on to gains in May…

Source: Bloomberg

Banks were mixed on the month with Goldman best and Wells worst…

Source: Bloomberg

Very choppy month for bonds with the long-end higher in yield on the month and short-end yields falling…

Source: Bloomberg

The market is pricing in negative Fed Funds rates for June 2021…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar dived for the second straight month to 9 week lows…

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos were mixed on the month with Bitcoin and Ethereum both higher on the week….

Source: Bloomberg

Oil drastically outperformed its commodity colleagues this month…

Source: Bloomberg

July 2020 WTI surged back above $35 today

Source: Bloomberg

Silver dramatically outperformed gold on the month…

Source: Bloomberg

This was the biggest monthly compression in the gold/silver ratio since 1987…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, there’s this…

Source: Bloomberg

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

Stocks Panic-Bid After Trump-China “Nuclear Option” Headlines

So, headlines hint at Trump unleashing the “nuclear option” of sanctions of China’s finance sector and the US equity market (after a brief dip) goes vertical…

  • TRUMP WEIGHS SANCTIONS ON CHINA FINANCE SECTOR OVER HONG KONG
  • TRUMP MAY ALSO IMPOSE RESTRICTIONS ON GRADUATE STUDENT VISAS

An initial 50 point drop in The Dow was met by a wall of buying lifting it almost 300 points off the lows…

What may be behind the spike? Why the market’s natural tendency to find a silver lining in any mushroom cloud, and in this case traders are focusing on this language from Bloomberg: “The financial sanctions the White House is expected to announce Friday will be targeted in order to leave the US room for escalation if necessary, according to a fourth person familiar with the matter. Trump officials crafting the sanctions are wary of the impact on global financial markets and retaliation from Beijing, the person said.”

This was interpreted by several trading desks as suggesting that Trump is aiming to maximize his political advantage on China while minimizing the adverse economic impact on the US, and falls somewhat indirectly in the “optimist camp” laid out below.

On the other hand, the last thing Trump needs is to be seen as coming off easy on Beijing, something Biden will immediately try to capitalize on.

* * *

As a reminder, here is our preview published earlier looking at what Trump may, or may not, say:

With the market transfixed on today’s geopolitical flashbpoint, when Trump will address the recent collapse in relations with China, which are rumored to take place around 2pm (although the White House still hasn’t said what time the news conference will be), traders are scrambling for some clues on what to expect from Trump, who may or may not live-tweet his duly fact-checked speech.

Earlier today, Rabobank’s Michael Every provided a handy cheat sheet analyzing an optimistic and a pessimistic framework in which to analyze the president’s upcoming remarks:

  • The optimist camp: Trump won’t want to rock markets. Trump won’t want to rattle big business. Trump needs Hong Kong. Trump needs the Chinese market. Trump is all talk and no action. Trump wants his phase one trade deal. Trump doesn’t need hassle before the election. Trump can’t win if he takes on China. Trump needs Chinese capital inflows.
  • The pessimist/realist camp: Trump needs a new narrative vs. China domestically, where he is being called soft on Beijing. Trump’s phase one trade deal is finished (China is buying Brazilian soy) and phase two was never going to happen. Trump needs to send a clear message to Beijing over the red lines it has crossed. Trump won’t look good if he has the whole world watching him and produces a small water pistol and not a bazooka. Trump has finally got allies like the UK and Australia moving in his direction on China (the UK is talking about extending visa rights for hundreds of thousands of Hong Kongers), with even the EU seemingly moving against China, so he can’t afford to go soft for fear that they will falter. Trump’s ideological weather vanes like Steve Bannon are calling for aggressive actions vs. China as a si vis pacem, para bellum. Trump doesn’t really care what US businesses think about China because he wants them to focus on the US market. Trump can bail out US farmers now that federal money seems to be no object. Trump has the Fed behind him to prop up markets anyway.

According to Every, there is a “healthy risk (>50%?) that today will see significant US action vs. China in the form of sanctions beyond merely not allowing key members of the Hong Kong government to vacation in Hawaii or California from now on. If this is not the case, why hold a press conference: wouldn’t it be easier to slip a token measure out with a simple press release?”

On the other hand, the most optimistic outcome is Trump signing the recently-passed Uyghur Human Rights Policy Act imposing sanctions on some Chinese officials and entities, but then does not act on Hong Kong. The more realist case is Trump signs that Uyghur Act and revokes Hong Kong’s favoured status, and imposes separate sanctions on China over that issue. The most pessimistic case is if Trump also mentions the China-India border clash and takes India’s side and/or if he brings up the Chinese red line of Taiwan.

Leaning more toward the “pessimist camp”, AGF Investment’s chief US policy strategist, Greg Valliere, writes that President Trump may focus on the “explosive issue of financial restrictions”, especially after earlier on Friday, Trump’s top economic aide Larry Kudlow said the U.S. is “furious” with what China has done “in recent days, weeks and months.”

“De-listing Chinese companies on U.S. stock exchanges or ending U.S. Thrift Savings Plan investments in Chinese stocks are suddenly seen as insufficient,” Valliere said, while threats of U.S. penalties on foreign banks that deal with Hong Kong and the U.S. denying Federal Reserve credit lines to Chinese banks have been leaked from Washington.

That’s triggered some warnings in China of a “financial war” that could speed up Beijing’s development of its own digital currency and, potentially, lead to sales of U.S. Treasuries, Valliere said, adding that the November election is complicating the crisis, as polls show Americans strongly disapprove of “Beijing’s role in the pandemic, its crackdown on Hong Kong, and the pervasive hacking of U.S. companies.”  Indeed, as we reported last week, China is the one thing that more than two-thirds of Americans can agree on, and they agree that they simply do not like China

… while 40% won’t buy Made in China products.

AS a result, both Trump and Joe Biden will “compete to blast out the toughest anti-China rhetoric”, which bodes badly for those in the optimist camp.

Separately, as Bloomberg notes, Vital Knowledge founder Adam Crisafulli writes that Trump’s most likely move may be an “equalization in the Hong Kong/China economic relationship,” with the same tariffs and terms in place with China now applying to Hong Kong, instead of current preferential policies.

Crisafulli adds that markets would probably tolerate that, as it’s been speculated about in media reports, but broad sanctions against individuals or entities “would be a larger issue and not something the SPX could easily dismiss,” nor sweeping sanctions as a result of Uighur human rights abuses.

Disrupting the Phase One trade agreement, which frankly no longer exists now that China is actively seeking to buy soy from Brazil in anticipation of a relapse in the trade war, is seen by Crisafulli as unlikely (for now) and would be seen as a “large negative.”

Meanwhile, Beijing retaliating – perhaps by publishing its unreliable entities list or expressing doubt about the Phase One trade deal – would also undermine markets.

Finally, it is worth reminding readers that as we wrote last night, even Marko Kolanovic said he “dialing down” his positive outlook on US equities, warning that “a complete breakdown of supply chains and international trade, primarily between the two largest economies (US and China), would justify equities trading drastically lower.”

end

ii)Market data/USA

This is not good fro GDP: they need spending by the uSA consumer

(zerohedge)

Savings Rate Soars To Record Highs As American Consumer Spending Crashes By Most Ever

After spending collapsed (and incomes dropped) in March, April was expected to see even worse but there was a surprise!

While spending collapsed 13.6% MoM (the biggest drop on record), incomes soared 10.5% MoM (the biggest surge on record) as we assume that this reflects massive government transfer payments…

Source: Bloomberg

And on a YoY basis, the shift is massive… an 11.7% surge in incomes and 3.1% slump in spending…

Source: Bloomberg

The surge in incomes is entirely due to massive government transfer payments…

Here is that percentage change put in absolute context… basically, the government has added $3 trillion in annualized income… from $3.348TN in March to $6.367TN in April (both annualized)

As private and government wages collapsed…

Consumer spending decreased in April, reflecting decreases in both goods and services.

Within goods, the leading contributor to the decrease was spending on food and beverages data. Spending on prescription drugs
also decreased.

Within services, the leading contributor to the decrease was spending on health care, based primarily on employment, hours, and earnings data as well as credit card data. Other contributors to the decrease in services were spending on food services and accommodations.

And finally, The Fed’s favorite inflation indicator – Core PCE Deflator – collapsed to 9 year lows…

Source: Bloomberg

The surge in incomes and plunge in spending sent the savings rate to record highs…

The question is – what happens when that government transfer runs out? Are people changing their behaviors? Is the uncertainty forcing a desire to save more and if so, will that wind up having a lasting effect on consumer spending? That has to be watched out for.

end

Private Wages Crash Most On Record As Savings Soar By $4 Trillion In 1 Month

One of the recurring laments about the BLS’ “average hourly earnings” series is that it does not actually measure the change in average hourly earning – which as a reminder surged 7.9% in April according to the latest jobs report…

… but is merely a ratio between aggregate compensation and hours worked, and since the denominator crashed much more than the numerator, the number actually posted a sharp spike contrary to what actually happened since the start of the Second Great Depression.

So what did happen?

According to latest monthly income and spending reported published earlier today by the BEA, the reality was far uglier, as wages for private industries plunged to $7.0 trillion annualized from $7.7 trillion in March, and from $7.8 trillion last April. The drop of 10.1% was not only the accurate description of what actually happened to private wages, but was also the biggest annual drop on record, surpassing even the worst drop during the financial crisis. Furthermore, it meant that three years of private wage growth was lost in one month, as the last time private wages printed an annualized $7.0 trillion was in April 2017!

Meanwhile, as private wages imploded, government workers also saw their pay drop drop, but far more modestly from $1.487 trillion in March to $1.438 trillion in April, an unchanged print from a year ago meaning that government workers remain far more insulated from the economic collapse.

The chart below shows the true hit to private and government wages in April, a far cry from the “fake news” reported by the BLS’ average hourly earnings print which is clearly meaningless in a time of corona.

And yet, as total wages crashed by almost $1 trillion, down from $9.22 trillion annualized in March to $8.48 trillion in April, total personal income actually soared by nearly $2 trillion, from $18.7 trillion to $20.7 trillion.

How did this happen? Simple: the government unleashed the biggest ever flood of personal current transfer receipts (i.e., government handouts), which soared from an annualized $3.3 in March to a record $6.3 trillion in April. Here, unemployment benefits were a major contributor, rising from $69.6BN to $430BN annualized, but it was the “Other” line, which exploded from $528 billion to $3.122 trillion – which consisted of various coronavirus stimulus measures – that was primarily responsible for the surge.

Meanwhile, as noted earlier, despite this record boost to personal incomes, US spending – that biggest contributor to GDP accounting for 70% of US output – collapsed by the most on record, sliding -13.6%…

… as consumers were frozen, unsure if and when things will return to normal.

The result of this surge in personal incomes and plunge in spending, is that the annualized amount of Personal Savings exploded by a mindblowing $4 trillion in May, rising from $2.1 trillion to $6.1 trillion…

… and accounting for a record 33% of disposable personal income!

And while economists will say that consumer better start spending all those pent up savings soon to reboot the economy, we have a different question: how much of these “government stimulus” checks were already spent by the retail public to buy stocks, because as we observed last week,investing in stocks was listed as the third most popular use of government funds…

… and would easily explain the market’s torrid surge in recent weeks.

end

Chicago PMI Plummets To 11 Year Low As Orders, Production Plunge

That wasn’t supposed to happen.

Various other cherry-picked sentiment surveys have been soaring against expectations in recent days but Chicago PMI just plummeted to its lowest level since 2009, notably below expectations…

Against expectations of a bounce back to 40.0 from 35.4, Chicago PMI tumbled to 32.3 in May…

  • Prices paid rose and the direction reversed, signaling expansion
  • New orders fell at a faster pace, signaling contraction
  • Employment fell at a slower pace, signaling contraction
  • Inventories rose and the direction reversed, signaling expansion
  • Supplier deliveries rose at a slower pace, signaling expansion
  • Production fell at a faster pace, signaling contraction
  • Order backlogs fell at a faster pace, signaling contraction

Of course, this important sentiment signal will be shrugged off because stocks are higher this month.

end
My goodness!!  Atlanta Fed now expects a staggering collapse in Q2 GDP of -51.2%
Unbelievable.!!
(zerohedge_

-51.2%! Atlanta Fed Now Expects Staggering Collapse In Q2 GDP

Two months ago, St Louis Fed president James Bullard triggered a market plunge when he predicted that Unemployment may soar to 30% and GDP plunge by an unprecedented 50%, vastly eclipsing the collapse observed during the Great Depression.

Sure enough, moments ago the Atlanta Fed’s closely followed GDPNow tracker confirmed this worst case scenario, when the latest model estimate for real GDP growth in the second quarter of 2020 crashed to -51.2% on May 29, down from -40.4% on May 28, which would be the biggest drop on record.

How did the US just lose 10% (annualized) in GDP growth in 1 day? Here is the explanation:

After this morning’s Advance Economic Indicators report from the U.S. Census Bureau and personal income and outlays release from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, the nowcast of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth decreased from -43.3 percent to -56.5 percent and the nowcast of the contribution of change in real net exports to second-quarter real GDP growth decreased from 2.07 percentage points to 0.73 percentage points.

And this is what the AtlantaFed’s real-time GDP estimate for the current quarter looks like:

For the sake of the US, those predicting a V-shaped recovery better be right.

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

The lockdowns have caused a huge number of auto thefts

(zerohedge)

“Perfect Storm” Of Auto Thefts Sweeps US During COVID Lockdowns

The link between high unemployment and crime has been realized in a new report that indicates police departments across the country have sounded the alarm on surging auto thefts.

To refresh everyone’s memory, over 38.6 million people have filed for unemployment over a nine-week period, the number of job loss is unprecedented and considered depressionary.

If you take a stroll down main street, it’s littered with commerical “for lease” signs and food banks, as tens of millions of people have fallen into instant poverty.

Before we dish out the shocking crime statistics – the Denver Police Department (DPD) recently said it would be studying crime trends from the last recession to better forecast what could happen during the current economic crash.

“We’re looking at the ebbs and flows that took place to try and anticipate where those challenges would come,” said DPD Chief Paul Pazen. “And more importantly, what are you doing about it?”

Drilling down to specific types of crime, he said spikes in “aggravated assault,” “auto theft,” and “robberies” were seen in the last recession.

A new Associated Press report reveals police data from major cities show auto thefts are surging across the country.

The number of pilfered vehicles soared by a whopping 63% in New York City from January 1 through mid-May, compared with the same period last year. In Los Angeles, the number was 17% during the same period. Salt Lake City saw a 22% rise in car thefts.

“And many other law enforcement agencies around the U.S. are reporting an increase in stolen cars and vehicle burglaries, even as violent crime has dropped dramatically nationwide in the coronavirus pandemic,” AP reported.

In Austin, Texas, auto thefts in April soared 50% over the last year. Austin police Sgt. Chris Vetrano said the virus had created a “perfect storm.”

AP outlined the elements of that storm:

“Drivers are at home and not using or checking their cars regularly. School’s out, so teenagers are trying their luck. Criminals are out of work and have more time on their hands or need fast money to support a drug habit.” 

What should be shocking too many is that Baltimore City’s vehicle thefts from autos actually plunged 24% and stolen vehicles dropped 19% over the period when compared to last year (by the way, the numbers from Baltimore are not believable — consider the city is an absolute shithole).

So there you have it, auto thefts surge across the country as coronavirus lockdowns trigger an economic depression with tens of millions of people unemployed. As we’ve outlined in the past, the recovery could take several years, which all suggests, thefts are likely to get worse.

Is this why Americans panic hoarded 9mm ammo earlier this year? 

end

(COURTESY  THE HILL)

Minneapolis erupts for third night, as protests spread, Trump vows retaliation

Minneapolis erupts for third night, as protests spread, Trump vows retaliation

 

Violent demonstrations erupted for a third night in Minneapolis on Thursday, as protestors — outraged over the death of an unarmed African American man in police custody — torched a city police station and President Trump threatened to respond with “shooting.”

Footage of the chaos shows crowds of protestors cheering as the Minneapolis Police Department’s Third Precinct was set ablaze — a response to the death Monday night of George Floyd, a 46-year-old pronounced dead shortly after a city police officer pinned Floyd’s head to the street with a knee on his neck.

“I can’t breathe,” Floyd protested. Minutes later, medical responders found him without a pulse.

A video of the incident quickly spread across the internet, sparking immediate protests in Minneapolis, where civil rights activists and Floyd’s family urged the arrest of the officers involved. Those calls are spreading to Capitol Hill, where Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) has characterized the incident as “an execution” and Sen. Kamala Harris (D), former attorney general of California, wants the arresting officer to face murder charges.

While four officers were fired, no arrests have been made — a dynamic that helped trigger the escalation of violence on Thursday night, even despite calls for calm from city officials and Gov. Tim Walz‘s decision to activate the National Guard.

Some protestors turned to looting and then setting afire businesses in the area.

“If you are feeling anger, or sadness, I get it. It is not only understandable, it is — it is righteous,” Minneapolis Mayor Frey (D) told MSNBC’s Rachel Maddow Thursday night. “But we cannot allow that anger and sadness to so negatively impact our communities.”

Despite the pleas, parts of Minneapolis resembled a war zone late Thursday. And the incident sent shock-waves well beyond Minnesota: violent protests also flared up in Los Angeles, Portland, and Columbus, Ohio.

Trump wasted no time responding, taking to Twitter in the earliest hours of Friday morning to attack Frey for “a total lack of leadership” and warn protestors that they might be shot.

“These THUGS are dishonoring the memory of George Floyd, and I won’t let that happen,” he tweeted. “Just spoke to Governor Tim Walz and told him that the Military is with him all the way. Any difficulty and we will assume control but, when the looting starts, the shooting starts. Thank you!”

That message sparked a conflict of a whole different sort: Twitter, which this week for the first time attached notes to tweets from Trump, added a warning to readers on Trump’s Minneapolis message, saying it violated the company’s rules against “glorifying violence.”

Twitter did allow Trump’s tweet to remain on its platform, stating that it was in “the public’s interest for the Tweet to remain accessible.”

In Louisville, seven people were shot Thursday night during protests over a separate incident: the March killing of Breonna Taylor, a 26-year-old African American woman shot by police officers in a botched raid.

On Thursday, Democrats on the House Judiciary Committee pressed the Justice Department to open investigations into the Floyd and Taylor killings, as well as that of Ahmaud Arbery, a 25-year-old black man fatally shot by vigilantes in February while he was jogging through a neighborhood in south Georgia.

The confluence of tragedies has once again shone a spotlight on issues of race and bias in the criminal justice system, sparking a national debate about racial profiling, police tactics and the role of the federal government in overseeing local law enforcement agencies. And they come at an exceedingly volatile time, when the country is already grappling with the health and economic devastation of the coronavirus pandemic, which has hit minority communities particularly hard.

Rep. Jerrold Nadler (D-N.Y.), chairman of the Judiciary panel, said Democrats will be conducting oversight, and weighing legislation, “to address the crisis of racial profiling, excessive force by law enforcement and lost trust between police departments and the communities they serve.”

Adding to the confusion and outrage, Minneapolis state police arrested CNN correspondent Omar Jimenez and his two-person camera crew team as they reported on the protests.

The cameras were rolling as Jimenez — who was filming in an area where protestors had been cleared — told the officers that they were reporters, stating that they would happily move to a location that suits the troopers. Moments later, he was put under arrest.

“Why am I under arrest, sir? Why am I under arrest, sir,” Jimenez said as an officer tightened disposable cuff restraints around his wrists and began walking him away from his crew.

While they were later released, the move by the police ignited a firestorm.

The Minneapolis state police said in a statement on its Twitter account that the three members of the CNN crew “were released once they were confirmed to be members of the media.” Critics have argued that the arrests were unnecessary, noting that they identified themselves immediately to the police, had professional video equipment and could have produced CNN badges. And Walz quickly apologized, saying the arrests were “totally unacceptable.”

The episode comes amid growing scrutiny of the Minneapolis police.

Rep. Val Demings (D-Fla.), a former police chief, called Friday in a Washington Post Op-Ed for a “serious” review of police practices, hiring standards, training, diversity, training, use-of-force policies, early warning programs, and more.

“As a former woman in blue, let me begin with my brothers and sisters in blue: What in the hell are you doing?” Demings wrote.

end

MICHAEL EVERY…

Rabo: This Seems To Be A Clear Victory For The First Amendment And Unfettered Online Freedom Of Speech

Submitted by Michael Every of Rabobank

Pres Pressing ‘Press’; And Pres Presser

US President Trump has just signed an executive order which forces federal agencies to reinterpret section 230(c) of the Communications Decency Act, which until now has allowed YouTube, Twitter, Instagram, and Facebook to say they are platforms rather than publishers, and hence not hold any liability for content they hold. The threat is that if these US ‘platforms’ decide to censor certain opinions, or to demonetise them to the same effect, or to allow political bias to come into play then they will now be seen as breaking section 230. This would involve them being forced to become publishers and taking liability for ALL of their online content even if user-created – which would be vastly expensive, if not impossible.

I will leave the inevitable wrangling to the inevitable expensive lawyers, who must be rolling up their sleeves; to the expensive software engineers, who will have to try to work out how the algorithms that determine what a user sees and doesn’t isn’t political bias; and to the expensive politicians, where the initial reaction from the Democrats appears to be that social media controls need to be tightened rather than loosened. Nonetheless, this does seem to be a clear victory for the US first amendment and unfettered online freedom of speech – although of course the quid pro quo is that the social consequences of that freedom are likely to get even shriller.

So that’s the Pres pressing the ‘press’. Today’s other huge market focus is the Pres presser. Trump will be holding a press conference to announce a new set of US policies towards China following the inevitable passage of the agreement to impose a national security law at the National People’s Congress in Beijing yesterday. What will he say?

  • We have the optimist camp: Trump won’t want to rock markets. Trump won’t want to rattle big business. Trump needs Hong Kong. Trump needs the Chinese market. Trump is all talk and no action. Trump wants his phase one trade deal. Trump doesn’t need hassle before the election. Trump can’t win if he takes on China. Trump needs Chinese capital inflows.
  • Then we have the pessimist/realist camp: Trump needs a new narrative vs. China domestically, where he is being called soft on Beijing. Trump’s phase one trade deal is finished (China is buying Brazilian soy) and phase two was never going to happen. Trump needs to send a clear message to Beijing over the red lines it has crossed. Trump won’t look good if he has the whole world watching him and produces a small water pistol and not a bazooka. Trump has finally got allies like the UK and Australia moving in his direction on China (the UK is talking about extending visa rights for hundreds of thousands of Hong Kongers), with even the EU seemingly moving against China, so he can’t afford to go soft for fear that they will falter. Trump’s ideological weather vanes like Steve Bannon are calling for aggressive actions vs. China as a si vis pacem, para bellum. Trump doesn’t really care what US businesses think about China because he wants them to focus on the US market. Trump can bail out US farmers now that federal money seems to be no object. Trump has the Fed behind him to prop up markets anyway.

Surely there must be a healthy risk (>50%?) that today will see significant US action vs. China in the form of sanctions beyond merely not allowing key members of the Hong Kong government to vacation in Hawaii or California from now on. If this is not the case, why hold a press conference: wouldn’t it be easier to slip a token measure out with a simple press release?

The most optimistic outcome must be Trump signs the recently-passed Uyghur Human Rights Policy Act imposing sanctions on some Chinese officials and entities, but then does not act on Hong Kong. The more realist case is Trump signs that Uyghur Act and revokes Hong Kong’s favoured status, and imposes separate sanctions on China over that issue. The most pessimistic case is if Trump also mentions the China-India border clash and takes India’s side and/or if he brings up the Chinese red line of Taiwan.

Yet as we all wait let me add that talking of algorithms and political bias, when I typed “Trump China press conference” into one search engine this morning (which rhymes with sing), I got no news of today’s event at all, just a summary of weeks’ old events. Luckily another search engine was able to provide me with news of what is happening today and what it had already seen happen in late US trading yesterday – stocks selling off.

Meanwhile, yesterday saw an exclusive report from MNI on the CNY, the headline of which was “PBOC To Permit Broader Yuan Band, 7.2 Key Level”, the sub-headline was “The PBOC Will Permit A Wider Band, But Will Act Against Volatility, Sources Say” and the substantive take-aways were that: the PBOC still has no wish for one-way CNY trading; it expects more volatility; it will ensure both by a willingness to raise rates for CNH and/or intervene in CNY with counter-cyclical fixing again; 7.20 is now the short-term line in sand; they fear capital flight(!) and that a weaker CNY would prompt it to occur; weaker CNY is not needed to boost exports at a time when there is simply no demand – and Beijing is seen subsidising exports anyway(!); and that CNY could trade as low as 7.40 this year.

That is a huge step from a central bank that was recently saying 6.90 was the line in the sand; then 7.0; then 7.10; now 7.20. In short, CNY is going lower. Much lower. The PBOC just wants to try to control the descent and avoid markets pushing it too far too fast.

Yet that was before Trump announced his press conference for today. More ‘press’ ahead.

end

The Fed tapers again to just 4.5 billion dollars worth of treasuries per day. It is obvious that the Fed will not monetize all of the government’s needs which will rise shortly

Is the Fed setting up the government for a fall?

(zerohedge)

Fed Tapers Daily Treasury Purchases To Just $4.5 Billion Per Day

From an initial $75 billion per day when the Fed announced the launch of Unlimited QE in mid-March, the US central bank first reduced its daily buying to $60 billion per day, then announced a series of consecutive ‘tapers’ as follows:

  • $50 billion per day
  • $30 billion per day
  • $15 billion per day
  • $10 billion per day
  • $8 billion per day
  • $7 billion per day
  • $6 billion per day

Then, after again shrinking the average daily POMO to $5 billion last week, in its latest just published schedule, the Fed unveiled that in the coming week it would purchase “only” $4.5BN per day, or a total of $22.5BN for the week.

The Fed is continuing the practice of incremental tapering, and providing a weekly preview of its purchasing operations, which in the coming week will amount to just $22.5BN in TSYs, up $2.5BN from the current week which however was one day short due to the Monday holiday.

Somewhat surprisingly, for the second week in a row the Fed decided not to taper its daily MBS buying, which will average $4.5 billion per day next week, the same as last week, and matches the buying of Treasuries for the :

  • Mon: $4.47BN vs no purchases on Monday’s holiday
  • Tue: $4.545BN vs $4.23BN
  • Wed: $4.47BN vs $4.770BN
  • Thur: $4.4545BN vs $4.230BN
  • Fri: $4.47BN vs $4.770BN

The chart below summarizes all the Fed Treasury and MBS buying completed and scheduled since the relaunch of QE on March 13:

In aggregate, the Fed will buy a total of $45 billion of TSYs/MBS next week and ever closer to spark concerns that the Fed is no longer monetizing all the Treasury issuance, of which there is and will be trillion in the coming quarters.

But not yet: once again there was no reaction in yields, with the 10Y trading at 0.66%, after the announcement, exactly where it was last week, and 2bps above where it was trading at exactly this time one week ago, and unchanged from 2 weeks ago.

iv) Swamp commentaries)

 

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

Q1 GDP declined 5.0%; 4.8% was expected.  Consumption declined 6.8%; -7.5% was expected.  April Durable Goods Orders: -17.2%, -19.0% expected; Ex-Transports: -7.4%, -15.0% expected; Nondef Ex-Air: -5.8%, -10.0% expected; Shipments: -5.4%, -12.2% expected.

Trump signs social media executive order, calls for removal of liability protections over ‘censoring’

“What they’re doing is tantamount to monopoly, to taking over the airwaves.”

    “My executive order further instructs the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) to prohibit social media companies from engaging in any deceptive acts or practices affecting commerce. This commerce resides in Section 5 of the Federal Trade Commission Act. … Additionally, I’m directing the attorney general to work cooperatively with the states … to enforce their own laws against such deceptive business practices. The states have broad and powerful authority to regulate in this arena.”…

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-signs-executive-order-on-social-media-companies

Stunning toll of shutdown: 55 percent of U.S. households with kids have lost income

Adults in households with children less confident they can make rent, more likely to indicate sometimes having insufficient food than childless households

https://justthenews.com/government/federal-agencies/survey-says-55-percent-households-children-least-one-adult-has-lo

How Media Sensationalism, Big Tech Bias Extended Lockdowns

Epidemiologists created faulty lockdown models. The media promoted fear. Politicians assumed worst-case scenarios, and big tech suppressed dissenting views….

    As of May 20 the CDC estimates that coronavirus has an overall infection fatality rate of 0.26%. The CDC further estimates that people under age 50 have a 99.97% survival rate

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/05/28/how_media_sensationalism_big_tech_bias_extended_lockdowns_143302.html

The Boss Wants to Know What You’re up to This Weekend – As states relax coronavirus rules, employers worry that workers’ off-duty activities could risk infection in the workplace

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-boss-wants-to-know-what-youre-up-to-this-weekend-11590678062?mod=e2tw

Authoritarian and police state advocates are despicably perpetuating and exploiting Covid panic.

The Fed’s balance sheet increased $60.058B to $7.097T for the week ended on Wednesday.  The Fed purchased $1.17 billion of ETFs.    https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/current/

Fed’s Harker Says Pandemic Is Worsening U.S. Inequality

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-28/fed-s-harker-says-pandemic-is-worsening-u-s-inequality

Harker won’t admit it; but the Fed’s promiscuity is a, if not ‘the’, reason for worsening US inequality.

Barr asks US Attorney John Bash (West TX) to review ‘unmasking’ before and after 2016 election

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/barr-asks-us-attorney-john-bash-to-review-unmasking-before-and-after-2016-election-doj-tells-fox-news

The Stunning Reason Why Rod Rosenstein Will Be the First Witness before Senate Committee

Rosenstein knew President Trump was not a suspect, but he still went ahead and appointed a Special Counsel to investigate him. He needs to explain why he did that, under oath…

https://www.redstate.com/elizabeth-vaughn/2020/05/27/844759/

Washington Inflates COVID-19 Numbers, Includes Gunshot Victims among Deaths

“We currently do have some deaths that are being reported that are clearly from other causes,” Dr. Katie Hutchinson said in the telebriefing… “We have about five deaths — less than five deaths — that we know of that are related to obvious other causes. In this case, they are from gunshot wounds.”…

https://www.westernjournal.com/washington-inflates-covid-19-numbers-includes-gunshot-victims-among-deaths/

Michigan artificially inflated its coronavirus testing numbers

It turns out Michigan was artificially inflating its testing totals by combining two very different kinds of tests — those that identify an active infection and those that indicate past exposure, providing an inaccurate picture of the state’s testing capacity.  To reopen the economy, diagnostic testing is needed to identify outbreaks and contain them by providing a real-time picture of how many people currently have the coronavirus. Antibody testing, on the other hand, indicates a past exposure, rather than detecting a current infection…  https://m.metrotimes.com/news-hits/archives/2020/05/26/michigan-artificially-inflated-its-coronavirus-testing-numbers

Michigan Won’t Report How Many of Its Coronavirus Deaths Were Nursing Home Infections

https://www.breitbart.com/health/2020/05/27/michigan-wont-report-how-many-coronavirus-deaths-nursing-home-infections/

New Jersey NAACP Leader Calls for Redo of Vote by Mail Election after Massive Irregularities

Part of the problem: Mail in ballots delivered unsecured to apartment buildings…

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/05/report-new-jersey-naacp-leader-calls-redo-vote-mail-election-massive-irregularities/

[Senator D-MN] Amy Klobuchar declined to prosecute officer at center of George Floyd’s death after previous conduct complaints [Amy’s chance to be Biden’s VP is gone with the wind.]

https://news.yahoo.com/amy-klobuchar-declined-prosecute-officer-183728902.html

end

Let us close out the week with this offering courtesy of Greg Hunter

(Greg Hunter)

Hong Kong Trouble, Trump Strikes Back, Economic Plunge

By Greg Hunter On May 29, 2020

Very big trouble is bubbling over in Hong Kong with the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) crackdown of Hong Kong. The CCP has passed a law eliminating all of Hong Kong’s sovereignty and democracy that was agreed to by treaty when the territory was turned back over to China more than two decades ago. It’s just another in many deals the Red Chinese government has reneged on. Trump is taking action, and it will have huge negative implications on the entire U.S./China relationship.

President Trump is striking back at Big Tech and its social media censorship of conservative views. Trump signed an Executive Order “stripping social media companies of their so-called “liability shield.” The action that caused President Trump to act is Twitter’s “fact checking” of President Trump’s tweets over mail-in voting and the President’s charge of massive voter fraud if this is allowed. The “fact checkers” from Twitter said that was not true, but they retracted that charge because it is true, and there is plenty of data to back that up.

The economy is in deep trouble, and all the money printing is merely covering it up like a stage four cancer patient taking opioids to cover up the pain. Economist John Williams of ShadowStats.com is projecting a 50% drop in GDP in the second quarter, and it’s NOT going to be a so-called “V shaped” recovery.

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he talks about these stories and more in the Weekly News Wrap-Up.

-END-

Well that is all for today

I will see you MONDAY night.

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