JUNE 19//WILD DAY TODAY: GOLD UP $16.50 TO $1741.00//SILVER UP 22 CENTS TO $17.64//GOLD TONNAGE STANDING AT THE COMEX; 162.2 TONNES//MUST READ TONIGHT: RONAN MANLY ON THE COMEX GOLD INFLUX//MUST VIEW TONIGHT: ANDREW MAGUIRE ON SCOTIA’S FORCED REGULATORY DEPARTURE FROM THE LBMA//CORONAVIRUS UPDATE//CHINA VS USA// WIRECARD CORP, IN GERMANY MASSIVE FRAUD//HUGE NUMBER OF USA RELATED STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

GOLD:$1741.00  UP $16.50   The quote is London spot price

 

 

 

 

 

 

Silver:$17.64  UP 22 CENTS//LONDON SPOT PRICE

 

Closing access prices:  London spot

 

 

 

i)Gold : $1742.50  LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

 

ii)SILVER:  $17.60//LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

CLOSING FUTURES PRICES:  KEY MONTHS

 

 

 

AUG GOLD:  $1752.80  CLOSE 1.30 PM//   SPREAD SPOT (LONDON) VS/FUTURE AUGUST: $  +11.80

 

CLOSING SILVER FUTURE MONTH

 

 

JULY: 1:30 PM:              $17.95//1:30 PM //SPREAD SPOT LONDON VS FUTURE JULY:      31 CENTS PER OZ//

 

 

the gold market continues to be broken as future prices are much higher than spot prices.  The comex is desperate to fix things but they have no available gold.

If one is to buy gold and or gold coins, the price is around $2800. usa per oz

and silver; $31.00 per oz//

 

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN: YOU ARE NOW WITNESSING FIRST HAND THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN PAPER GOLD/SILVER AND THE REAL PHYSICAL STUFF!!

DO NOT PAY ANY ATTENTION TO WHAT THE CROOKS ARE DOING AT THE COMEX AND LONDON LBMA..PHYSICAL IS THE NAME OF THE GAME AND NOTHING ELSE

 

COMEX DATA

 

 

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING: 7/12

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: JUNE 2020 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,724.800000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 06/18/2020 DELIVERY DATE: 06/22/2020
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 2
657 H MORGAN STANLEY 4
661 C JP MORGAN 7
800 C MAREX SPEC 6
905 C ADM 4 1
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 12 12
MONTH TO DATE: 52,022

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  JUNE CONTRACT: 12 NOTICE(S) FOR 1200 OZ ( 0.037 tonnes)

 

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  52022 NOTICES FOR 5,202,200 OZ  (161.810 TONNES)

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR JUNE

 

 

1 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR  5,000  OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month: 428 for 2,140,000 oz

 

BITCOIN MORNING QUOTE  $9415  UP $29

 

 

BITCOIN AFTERNOON QUOTE.: $9303 DOWN 83

 

GLD AND SLV INVENTORIES:

WITH GOLD UP $11.80 AND NO PHYSICAL TO BE FOUND ANYWHERE:

WITH ALL REFINERS CLOSED//MEXICO ORDERING ALL MINES SHUT:   WHERE ARE THEY GETTING THE “PHYSICAL”?

NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//

RESTS TONIGHT AT 1136.22 TONNES

GLD: 1,136.22 TONNES OF GOLD//

 

WITH SILVER UP A STRONG 22 CENTS TODAY: AND WITH NO SILVER AROUND

A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV..STRANGE?????

A STRONG  WITHDRAWAL OF 0.839 MILLION OZ/  

 

RESTING SLV INVENTORY TONIGHT:

 

SLV: 486.454  MILLION OZ./

 

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Let us have a look at the data for today

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

IN SILVER THE COMEX OI FELL BY A TINY SIZED 391 CONTRACTS FROM 177,480 DOWN  TO 177,122 AND FURTHER FROM OUR NEW RECORD OF 244,710, (FEB 25/2020. THE TINY SIZED LOSS IN  OI OCCURRED WITH OUR 16 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. IT SEEMS THAT THE LOSS IN COMEX OI IS DUE TO SOME  BANKER SHORT COVERING PLUS A SMALL EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE, MINIMAL LONG LIQUIDATION, ACCOMPANYING  A SMALL INCREASE IN SILVER OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR JUNE.  WE HAD A NET LOSS IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 251 CONTRACTS  (SEE CALCULATIONS BELOW).

 

 

 

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A HUMONGOUS AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A SMALL SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE:   JULY: 140  AND SEPT 0 FOR ZERO ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  140 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 140 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 140 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 0.700 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 16 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

7.32     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

2.630     MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOV.

20.970   MILLION OZ  FINAL STANDING IN DEC

5.075     MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JAN

1.480    MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN FEB

23.005  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAR

4.660  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR APRIL

45.220 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAY

2.175  MILLION OF INITIALLY STANDING FOR JUNE

 

THURSDAY, AGAIN OUR CROOKS USED COPIOUS PAPER IN ORDER TO LIQUIDATE SILVER’S PRICE…AND THEY WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL 16 CENTS).. AND,OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS  WERE SOMEWHAT SUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE SOME SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR POSITIONS. THE TINY LOSS AT THE COMEX WAS ACCOMPANIED BY : i)  A FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS 2) A SMALL INCREASE IN SILVER OZ STANDING  SOME BANKER SHORT COVERING  AND 4) MINIMAL LONG LIQUIDATION AS  WE DID HAVE A STRONG NET LOSS OF 251 CONTRACTS OR 1.050 MILLION OZ ON THE TWO EXCHANGES! YOU CAN BET THE FARM THAT OUR BANKER  ARE DESPERATE TO LIQUIDATE THEIR HUGE SHORT POSITIONS IN SILVER

SPREADING OPERATIONS

 

OUR SPREADING OPERATION HAS NOW SWITCHED INTO SILVER…..

SPREADING OPERATION FOR OUR NEWCOMERS:

 

FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS:

 

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED IN SILVER  AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF JULY.

 

 

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEW, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE SPREADERS AND THE CRIMINAL ELEMENT BEHIND IT:

 HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

 

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR GOLD..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR SILVER.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

 

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

.

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO SILVER AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX SILVER OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY FOR SILVER:

 

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF JUNE. BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JULY), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

JUNE

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY /FOR MONTH OF JUNE:

7982 CONTRACTS (FOR 16 TRADING DAY(S) TOTAL 7982 CONTRACTS) OR 39.910 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 498 CONTRACTS OR 2.494 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF MAY: 39.910 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 5.70% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

 

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2020 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          1,105.945 MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2020 EFP TOTALS SO FAR: 181.61 MILLION OZ

FEB 2020 EFP’S TOTAL :  ……     259.600 MILLION OZ

MARCH EFP’S …..                     452.280 MILLION OZ  //TOTALS//AND A NEW RECORD FOR THE MONTH)

APRIL EFP                               95.355 MILLION OZ.  (EX. FOR PHYSICALS BECOMING A LOT LESS)

MAY EFP FINAL:                     77.27 MILLION OZ

JUNE EXP SO FAR                   39.91 MILLION OZ.

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE FOR THE PAST 60 DAYS IS A LOT LESS.  NO DOUBT THAT THE COST TO CARRY THESE THINGS HAS EXPLODED  AND AS SUCH CANNOT BE DONE AS FREQUENTLY AS BEFORE.

 

RESULT: WE HAD A TINY SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 358, WITH OUR 16 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ///THURSDAY THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A SMALL SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 140 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER

 

TODAY WE GAINED A TINY SIZED OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:  218 CONTRACTS (WITH OUR 16 CENT LOSS IN PRICE)

 

THE TALLY//EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

i.e 140 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH A TINY SIZED DECREASE OF 358 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND HAPPENED DESPITE A 16 CENT LOSS IN PRICE OF SILVER/AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $17.42 // THURSDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY. 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 0.846 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 121% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW  JUNE  DELIVERY MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 1 NOTICE(S) FOR 5,000 OZ OF SILVER.

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018. AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.70//TODAY’S RECORD OF 244,705 IS SET WITH A PRICE OF: 18.91 (FEB 25/2020)

 

.

 

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 10.025 MILLION OZ/ SEPT 43.030 MILLION OZ//OCT: 7.665 MILLION OZ//   NOV: 2.630 MILLION OZ//DEC:  20.970 MILLION OZ; JAN:  5.075 MILLION OZ.//FEB 1.480 MILLION OZ//MAR: 23.005 MILLION OZ/APRIL 4.660 MILLION OZ//MAY  45.220 MILLION OZ//JUNE: 2.175 MILLION OZ//
  2. THE  RECORD PRIOR TO TODAY WAS SET IN FEB 25/2018:  244,710 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $18.90//.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

 

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 

GOLD

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A SMALL 1117 CONTRACTS TO 493,367 AND CLOSER TO OUR NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE SMALL SIZED GAIN OF COMEX OI OCCURRED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE  OF $2.75 /// COMEX GOLD TRADING// THURSDAY// WE  HAD GOOD BANKER SHORT  COVERING, A SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN GOLD OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX, ALONG WITH ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION ACCOMPANYING A SMALL  EX. FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. THIS ALL HAPPENED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $2.75 .

 

WE HAD A VOLUME OF 0    4 -GC CONTRACTS//OPEN INTEREST  25

 

WE GAINED A SMALL SIZED 3717 CONTRACTS  (11.56 TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

 

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

 

 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A SMALL SIZED 2600 CONTRACTS:

CONTRACT  JUNE 0.; AUG 2600 AND DEC: 100  ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO//TOTAL: 2600.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 493,240. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 3717 CONTRACTS: 1117 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 2600 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 3717 CONTRACTS OR 11.56 TONNES. THURSDAY, WE HAD A LOSS OF $2.75 IN GOLD TRADING……

AND WITH THAT LOSS IN  PRICE, WE HAD A SMALL SIZED GAIN IN  TOTAL/TWO EXCHANGES GOLD TONNAGE OF 11.56 TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS/OFFICIAL SECTOR  SUPPLIED INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER WITH RECKLESS ABANDON. THE BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE (IT FELL $2.75).AND IT ALSO SEEMS THAT THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE ANY GOLD LONGS FROM THE GOLD ARENA WAS  UNSUCCESSFUL  (SEE BELOW).

 

 

 

 

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:

WE HAD A SMALL SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS  (2600) ACCOMPANYING THE SMALL SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI  (1117 OI): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES:  3844 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1 )SOME BANKER SHORT COVERING, 2.)A SMALL INCREASE IN GOLD  OUNCES STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR THE FRONT JUNE MONTH,  3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION; 4) SMALL COMEX OI GAIN.. AND  …ALL OF THIS WAS COUPLED WITH OUR LOSS IN GOLD PRICE TRADING//WEDNESDAY//$2.75.

 

WE ARE BEGINNING TO WITNESS A LACK OF EXCHANGE FOR GOLD PHYSICALS UNDERWRITTEN DUE TO PREMIUMS STARTING TO REAPPEAR IN THE FUTURE PRICE OF GOLD VS LONDON SPOT. THE COST TO THE BANKERS IS JUST TOO GREAT TO ENGAGE IN THESE VEHICLES ONCE THIS OCCURS.

THE FACT THAT WE ARE CONTINUALLY SEEING A DROP IN COMEX OPEN INTEREST AND VOLUMES COUPLED WITH LESS EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS PROBABLY MEANS THAT OUR LONGS ARE ALREADY DEPARTING NEW YORK FOR THE NEW PHYSICAL PLATFORM AT LONDON’S LME.

 

 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2020 INCLUDING TODAY

JUNE

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE : 39,233 CONTRACTS OR 3,923,300 oz OR 122.03 TONNES (16 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2452 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

 

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 16 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 122.03 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2019, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 122.03/3550 x 100% TONNES =3.43% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD HAS DISSIPATED THIS MONTHTHE COST TO THE BANKERS TO CARRY THESE CONTRACTS IN LONDON IS BECOMING TOO GREAT FOR THEM.

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2020 TO DATE   2936.17  TONNES

JANUARY 2220 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE; : 570.19 TONNES

FEB 2020 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE :            653.78 TONNES

MARCH TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE                1,098.93  TONNES  (*AND A NEW ALL TIME RECORD ISSUANCE//22 DAYS)

APRIL TOTAL EFP. ISSUANCE:               243.45  TONNES  (EFP ISSUANCE BECOMING A LOT LESS)

MAY TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                     248.68 TONNES (EFP ISSUANCE STILL LOW// PREMIUM COST TO THE BANKERS IS HUGE..SO ISSUANCE IS LESS)

JUNE TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                     122.03 TONNES

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

 

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, FELL BY A TINY SIZED 391 CONTRACTS FROM 177,480 UP TO 177,480 AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 3/4 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

THE TINY LOSS IN OI SILVER COMEX WAS DUE TO;   1) SOME BANKER SHORT COVERING , 2) A SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (SEE BELOW), 3) A SMALL INCREASE IN SILVER OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR JUNE AND  4) MINIMAL LONG LIQUIDATION 

 

EFP ISSUANCE 140 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

JULY: 150 CONTRACTS   AND SEPT: 100 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 140 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI LOSS  OF 358  CONTRACTS TO THE 140 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A TINY LOSS OF 251 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 1.090 MILLION  OZ!!! OCCURRED WITH THE 16 CENT GAIN IN PRICE///

 

 

RESULT: A TINY SIZED DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE 16 CENT GAIN IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// THURSDAY. WE ALSO HAD A SMALL SIZED 140 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

 

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

(report Harvey)

 

 

 

 

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)FRIDAY MORNING/ THURSDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 28.32 POINTS OR 0.96%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 178.95 POINTS OR 0.73%   /The Nikkei closed UP 123.33 POINTS OR 0.55%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .16%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 7.0733 /Oil UP TO 40.03 dollars per barrel for WTI and 42.54 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 7.0733 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0669 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A SMALL 1117 CONTRACTS TO 493,367 MOVING CLOSER TO  OUR  RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020).  AND ALL OF THIS SMALL  COMEX ADVANCE OCCURRED WITH OUR LOSS OF $2.75 IN GOLD PRICING /THURSDAY’S COMEX TRADING//). WE ALSO HAD A SMALL EFP ISSUANCE (2600 CONTRACTS),.  THUS WE HAD 1) SOME BANKER SHORT COVERING AT THE COMEX AND 2)  ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AND 3)  A SMALL INCREASE IN  GOLD OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX//JUNE DELIVERY MONTH (SEE BELOW) , …  AS WE ENGINEERED A GOOD GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 3717 CONTRACTS DESPITE GOLD’S LOSS IN PRICE. 

 

 

WE  HAD 0    4 -GC VOLUME//open interest REMAINS AT 25

 

 

 

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A SMALL SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 2600 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  2600 FOR AUG AND 0 FOR DEC AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2600 CONTRACTS.

YOU WILL FIND THAT WHEN WE HAVE A PREMIUM IN THE FUTURES/SPOT, THEN THE NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS DECLINE IN NUMBERS.  THE COST IS JUST TOO MUCH FOR THEM TO ISSUE.

 

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:  3717 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 2600 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A SMALL SIZED 1117 COMEX CONTRACTS.  THE BANKERS PROVIDED ALL THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER TO WHICH OUR LONGS DUTIFULLY ACCEPTED AS THEY GOBBLED UP A CONSIDERABLE  AMOUNT OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WITH HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING, ACCOMPANYING THE SMALL COMEX OI GAIN,  A SMALL INCREASE GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR THE JUNE DELIVERY (SEE CALCULATIONS BELOW)… AND ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION…… ALL OF THE ABOVE OCCURRED WITH A LOSS IN COMEX PRICE OF 2.75 DOLLARS..

 

THE BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT FELL $2.75).  AND, THEY WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING SOME LONGS 

AS THE TOTAL GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES REGISTERED A STRONG 11.56 TONNES.

 

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES :: 3717 CONTRACTS OR 371700 OZ OR 11.56 TONNES.

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT COMMODITY FUTURES OPEN INTEREST SHOULD APPROXIMATE 3% OF TOTAL PRODUCTION.  IN GOLD THE WORLD PRODUCES AROUND 3500 TONNES PER YEAR BUT ONLY 2200 TONNES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE WEST (THUS EXCLUDING RUSSIA, CHINA ETC..WHO KEEP 100% OF THEIR PRODUCTION)

THUS IN GOLD WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:  493,240 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS X 100 OZ PER CONTRACT = 49.32 MILLION OZ/32,150 OZ PER TONNE =  1534 TONNES

THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST REPRESENTS 1534/2200 OR 69.72% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF GOLD.

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 181,828 contracts//poor//most traders have moved to London

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY164,742 contracts//  volume low //most of our traders have left for London

 

 

JUNE 19 /2020

JUNE GOLD CONTRACT MONTH

 

 

 

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
132,165.087 oz
HSBC
Brinks
Int. Delaware
Loomis
includes
20 kilobars
Loomis
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz NIL oz

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

64,302.000

OZ

BRINKS

 

2,000

KILOBARS

No of oz served (contracts) today
12 notice(s)
 1200 OZ
(0.0370 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
131 contracts
(13100 oz)
0.407 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
52022 notices
5,202,200 OZ
161.810 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

We had 0 deposit into the dealer

 

total deposit: NIL oz

DEALER WITHDRAWAL:

i) nil oz

 

 

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had 1 deposits into the customer account

i) Into Brinks: 64,302.000 OZ 2,000 kilobars

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total deposits: 64,302.000    oz

 

 

we had 4 gold withdrawals from the customer account:

i) Out of LOOMIS:   643.000 oz ( 20 kilobars)

ii) Out of Int.  Delaware: 126,996.45  oz

iii) Out of HSBC: 1000.317 oz

iv) Out of Brinks: 3525.37 oz

 

 

 

total gold withdrawals;  132,165.087 oz

We had 2  kilobar transactions  +

 

 

 

 

ADJUSTMENTS: 2 //    

 

 

dealer to customer:

 

i) JPM; 1293.187 oz

customer to dealer

i)Brinks:  90,858.726 oz (customer account to dealer account)

 

 

The front month of JUNE registered a total of 143 oi contracts FOR a LOSS of 1488 contracts.  We had 1541 notices filed on THURSDAY so we GAINED A GOOD 53 contracts or an additional 5300 oz of gold (0.1648 TONNES) will  stand in this very active delivery month of June as these guys REFUSED TO morph into London based forwards

 

After June we have the non active delivery month of July and here we had a LOSS of 31 contracts DOWN to 3459 contracts.

Next comes August another strong delivery month and here the OI ROSE by 1679  contracts UP to 341,922 contracts.

 

We had 12 notices filed today for 1200 oz

 

FOR THE JUNE 2020 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 12 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 7 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan//customer account and 95 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JUNE /2020. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (52,022) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  JUNE (143 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today (12 x 100 oz per contract) equals 5,215,300 OZ OR 162.212 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this active month of JUNE

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JUNE/2020 contract month:

No of notices served (52,022)x 100 oz + (143 OI) for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (2) x 100 oz which equals 5,215,300 oz standing OR 162.212 TONNES in this  active delivery month. This is a HUGE record amount for gold standing for a JUNE delivery month or any active/non active delivery month.

We GAINED an additional 53 contracts or 5,300 oz will stand on this side of the pond.  Issuance of exchange for physicals is SMALL today…  It is still too costly for our crooked bankers to carry.

 

 

 

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:  BRINKS

 

144,088.952 oz NOW PLEDGED  JAN 21.2020/HSBC  5.4807 TONNES

322,656.68 oz PLEDGED  MARCH 2020  JPMORGAN:  10.036 TONNES

42,548.308.00 PLEDGED  APRIL 3/2020: SCOTIA:            1.3234 tonnes

19,290.600 oz Pledged May 8/2020   INT DELAWARE:  .600 TONNES

 

477,821.587 oz pledged June 12/2020 Brinks/               14.865 tonnes

total pledged gold:  1,006,406.127 oz                             31.303 tonnes

 

 

 

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES…. WE HAVE 358.54 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS ie. 162.212 tonnes

CALCULATION OF REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SETTLED UPON:

total registered or dealer  12,533,639.935 oz or 389.84 tonnes
which  includes the following:
a) pledged gold held at HSBC   which cannot settled upon   144,088.952 oz x ( 4.4817 TONNES)//
b) pledged gold held at JPMorgan (added March 2020) which cannot be settled upon:  322,144.443 oz (or 10.0200 tonnes)
total pledged gold:
c)  pledged gold at Scotia: 1.3234 tonnes or 42,548.308 oz which cannot be settled  (1.3234 tonnes)
d) pledged gold at Manfra:  DELETED  MAY 26.2020
e) pledged gold at int.Del.    19,290.600 oz  which cannot be settled:   (.600 tonnes)
f) pledged gold at Brinks:  21,026.754 oz which cannot be settled June 5 (.65402 tonnes)
g) pledged gold at Brinks: 456,794,87 oz added which cannot be settled:  14.208 tonnes
total brinks:  477,821.587 oz
total weight of pledged:  1006,406.127 oz or 31.303 tonnes
thus:
registered gold that can be used to settle upon: 11,527,233.0  (358.54 tonnes)
true registered gold  (total registered – pledged tonnes  11,527,233.0 (358.54 tonnes)
total eligible gold:  18,446,579.416 oz (573.76 tonnes)

total registered, pledged  and eligible (customer) gold;   30,980,219.351 oz 963.61 tonnes (INCLUDES 4 GC GOLD)

total 4 GC gold:   126.34 tonnes

total gold net of 4 GC:  837.27 tonnes

 

end

 

I have compiled  data with respect to registered (or dealer) gold taken on first day notice for each of the past 24 months

The data begins on first day notice for the May month taken on the last day of April 2018. and it continues to present day.  Thus 24 data entry points.

 

I then took, how many deliveries were recorded by the CME for each and every month.  I also included for reference the price of gold on first day notice.

 

The first graph is a logarithmic  graph and the second graph, linear.

You can see the huge explosion of registered gold at the comex along with deliveries.  Gold owners are very clear people.  They would know full well that

the gold at the comex is unallocated and that they would not be stupid enough to keep their gold at the comex especially in the registered category once deliveries are asked upon. If physical gold was present it would be have removed from the comex… It shows there is no gold at the comex.  They are just trading in sticky paper.

 

 

THE GOLD COMEX SEEMS TO BE  UNDER SEVERE ASSAULT FOR PHYSICAL

 

END

JUNE 19/2020

And now for the wild silver comex results

Total COMEX silver OI ROSE BY A TINY SIZED 391  CONTRACTS FROM 177,480 DOWN TO 177,089(AND FURTHER FROM OUR NEW ALL TIME RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON FEB 25.2020(244,710) ECLIPSING OUR PREVIOUS RECORD, AUGUST 25/2018 RECORD (244,196).  THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) . THE TINY OI COMEX LOSS TODAY OCCURRED WITH OUR 16 CENT FALL IN PRICING//THURSDAY. WE LOST A TOTAL OF 218 CONTRACTS IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES.  THE LOSS IN TOTAL OI (TWO EXCHANGES) OCCURRED WITH 1)  A SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS 2) A SMALL INCREASE IN  SILVER OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR THE JUNE DELIVERY MONTH, 3)  SOME BANKER SHORT COVERING , 4) MINIMAL LONG LIQUIDATION,5) TINY COMEX LOSS IN OI, ….AND ALL OF THIS OCCURRED WITH OUR 16 CENT FALL IN PRICE 

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE

THE FRONT DELIVERY OF JUNE SAW 9 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS STANDING FOR A LOSS OF 1 CONTRACTS.  WE HAD 2 NOTICES SERVED UPON YESTERDAY SO WE GAINED 1 CONTRACT OR AN ADDITIONAL 5,000 OZ WILL STAND IN THIS NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE AS THEY REFUSED TO MORPHED INTO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

AFTER JUNE COMES THE VERY BIG DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY AND HERE THE OI LOST 4293 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 70,281 CONTRACTS. AUGUST SAW ANOTHER GAIN OF 48 CONTRACTS TO 200 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS.. THE STRONG DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT SAW A GAIN OF 3441 CONTRACTS UP TO 79,549

 

 

We, today, had  2 notice(s) FILED  for 10,000 OZ for the JUNE, 2020 COMEX contract for silver

 

JUNE 19/2020

JUNE SILVER COMEX CONTRACT MONTH

 

Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 231,828.800 oz
CNT

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
1,151,594.46 oz
Loomis
No of oz served today (contracts)
1
CONTRACT(S)
(5,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
8 contracts
 40,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  428 contracts

2,140,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
We had 0 deposit into the dealer:

total dealer deposits: nil oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

 

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

i)we had 1 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:   0

ii) Into Loomis:  1,115,594.46 oz

 

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017, 2018 and onward, has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 160.819 million oz of  total silver inventory or 50.67% of all official comex silver. (160.819 million/317.323 million

 

total customer deposits today: 1,151,594.46    oz

we had 1 withdrawals:

 

 

 

i) Out of CNT

231,828.800 oz withdrawn from CNT

 

 

total withdrawals; 231,828.800   oz

We had 0 adjustments

 

 

total dealer silver: 85.643 million

total dealer + customer silver:  317,323 million oz

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

The total number of notices filed today for the JUNE 2020. contract month is represented by 1 contract(s) FOR 5,000, oz

 

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JUNE we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 428 x 5,000 oz = 2,140,,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JUNE.(9) and the number of notices served upon today 1 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the JUNE/2019 contract month: 428 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of JUNE (9)- number of notices served upon today (1) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the JUNE contract month.equals 2,175,000 oz.

We GAINED 1  contracts or an additional 5,000 oz will stand for delivery as they refused to morphed into London based forwards as well as negating a fiat bonus

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME: 76,583 CONTRACTS // volume good/

 

 

FOR YESTERDAY: 61,149..,CONFIRMED VOLUME//volume fair/

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 61,149 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 305 million  OZ 43.6% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

 

NPV for Sprott

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV  FALLS TO- 1.18% ((JUNE 19/2020)

2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV  RISES TO -0.68% to NAV:   (JUNE 19/2020 )

Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ 1.18%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 16.54 TRADING 16.40///NEGATIVE 0.87

END

 

 

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

JUNE 19/WITH GOLD UP$16.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//; INVENTORY RESTS AT 1136.22 TONNES

JUNE 18//WITH GOLD DOWN $2.75 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY: INVENTORY RESTS AT 1136.22 TONNES

JUNE 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.05: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1136.22 TONNES

JUNE 16//WITH GOLD UP $6.70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY: /INVENTORY RESTS AT 1136.22 TONNES

JUNE 15/WITH GOLD DOWN ANOTHER $8.80 TODAY, NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1136.22 TONNES

JUNE 12//WITH GOLD DOWN $1.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 1.17 TONNES AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1136.22 TONNES

JUNE 11//WITH GOLD UP $16.80 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 6.55 TONNES AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1135.05 TONNES

JUNE 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $.30 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A DEPOSIT OF 4.02 TONNES AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1129.50 TONNES

JUNE 9//WITH GOLD UP $16.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.63 TONNES OF GOLD AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1125.48 TONNES

JUNE 8//WITH GOLD UP $18.70 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.10 TONNES AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1128.11 TONNES

 

JUNE 5//WITH GOLD DOWN $40.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES OUT OF THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1132.21 TONNES

JUNE 4//WITH GOLD UP $20.60: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD…A DEPOSIT OF 4.09 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1133.37 TONNES

JUNE 3//WITH GOLD DOWN $26.15//A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY//A DEPOSIT OF 0.78 TONNES OF GLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1129.28 TONNES

JUNE 2//WITH GOLD DOWN $11.20 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 5.26 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1128.40 TONNES

JUNE 1//WITH GOLD UP $1.30//A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.06 TONNES OF GOLD//GLD INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 1123.14 TONNES

MAY 29/WITH GOLD UP $19.40 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD///GLD INVENTORY RESTS THIS WEEKEND AT 1119.05 TONNES

MAY 28//WITH GOLD UP $4.00 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY TO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS  AT 1119.05 TONNES

MAY 27/WITH GOLD UP $.10 TODAY: A STRONG 2.34 TONNES OF GOLD ADDED TO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1119.05 TONNES

MAY 26//WITH GOLD DOWN $23.05//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY://RESTS TONIGHT AT 1116.71 TONNES

MAY 22//WITH GOLD UP $13.05//A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY:: A PAPER ADDITION OF 3.93 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS THIS WEEKEND AT:  1116.71 TONNES

MAY 21//WITH GOLD DOWN $26.70//NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1112.32 TONNES

MAY 20/WITH GOLD UP $7.20: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.46 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 1112.32 TONNES

MAY 19//WITH GOLD UP $10.60//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1113.78 TONNES

MAY 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $15.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 9.06 TONNES./INVENTORY RESTS AT 1113.78 TONNES

MAY 15.WITH GOLD UP $16.30 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 12.58 TONNES/  INVENTORY RESTS AT 1104.72 TONNES

MAY 14//WITH GOLD UP $19.25 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1092.14 TONNES

MAY 13//WITH GOLD UP $9.05 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A DEPOSIT OF 11.07 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1092.14 TONNES

MAY 12//WITH GOLD UP $6.60 TODAY; A SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A WITHDRAWAL OF .58 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1081.07 TONNES

MAY 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.65 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY: //INVENTORY RESTS AT 1081.65 TONES..

MAY 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.00 TODAY; A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: A PAPER ADDITION OF 5.85 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1081.65 TONNES

MAY 7/WITH GOLD UP $29.65 TODAY : A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A PAPER ADDITION OF .41 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1075.80 TONNES

MAY 6//WITH GOLD DOWN $17.00 TODAY/ A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A PAPER ADDITION OF 3.68 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1075.39 TONES

MAY 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.65 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER ADDITION OF 3.81 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1071.71 TONNES

MAY 4//WITH GOLD UP $12.00 TODAY//A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE PAPER DEPOSIT OF 11.4 TONNES INTO THE GLD////GOLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 1067.90 TONNES

MAY 1/WITH GOLD UP $8.45 NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1056.50 TONNES

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Inventory rests tonight at

JUNE 19/ GLD INVENTORY 1136.22 tonnes*

LAST;  845 TRADING DAYS:   +192.22 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD

 

LAST 745 TRADING DAYS://+367.52  TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

 

end

 

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

JUNE 19//WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS TODAY: STRANGE!!  A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 839,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 486,454 MILLION OZ..

JUNE 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 932,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.293 MILLION OZ

JUNE 17/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.261 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY REST AT 486.361 MILLION OZ

JUNE 16//WITH SILVER UP 20 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.118 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.100 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: //INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.982  MILLION OZ///

JUNE 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 30 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: TWO DEPOSITS OF 7.269 MILLION OZ AND 1.802 MILLION OZ ADDED TO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS THIS WEEKEND AT 481.982 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 11//WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.89 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 10/WITH SILVER  UP 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.849 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY//A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.605 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 422.849 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 8/WITH SILVER UP 36 CENTS TODAY: TWO HUGE WITHDRAWALS OF 932,000 MILLION OZ AND 1.491 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 470.240 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 46 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 648,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.663  MILLION OZ

JUNE 4//WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 473.315 MILLION OZ//

 

JUNE 3//WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//

INVENTORY RESTS AT 473.315 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 2//WITH SILVER DOWN 31 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A HUMONGOUS 6.686 MILLION OZ ADDED TO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 473.315 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 1//WITH SILVER UP 38 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.56 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 466.629 MILLION OZ//

MAY 29//WITH SILVER UP 52 CENTS TODAY: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 2.796 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS THIS WEEKEND AT 463.273 MILLION OZ//

MAY 28//WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: A MASSIVE  CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 4.660 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 460.477 MILLION OZ//

MAY 27/WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 455.817 MILLION OZ//

MAY 26//WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/// INVENTORY RESTS AT 455.817 MILLION OZ//

MAY 22/WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS TODAY/ A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.864 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 455.817 MILLION OZ/

LAST 5 DAYS: SILVER UP 60 CENTS: INVENTORY  UP A WHOOPING 23.767 MILLION OZ///

MAY 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 50 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE PAPER DEPOSIT OF 7.923 MILLION OZ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 457.681 MILLION OZ//

MAY 20//WITH SILVER UP ANOTHER 11 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SLV INVENTORY: A HUGE PAPER DEPOSIT OF 9.601 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 449.758 MILLION OZ

MAY 19/WITH SILVER UP ANOTHER 29 CENTS TODAY:  NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.157 MILLION OZ//

MAY 18/WITH SILVER UP ANOTHER 48 CENTS TODAY: TWO BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV I.E. 2 PAPER DEPOSIT OF ( I) 8.39 MILLION OZ AND THEN ( 2) 8.109 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 432.048 MILLION OZ// (TOTAL DEPOSITS 16.500 MILLION OZ///)

MAY 15/WITH SILVER UP 81 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: /INVENTORY RESTS AT 423.65 MILLION OZ.

MAY 14//WITH SILVER UP 33 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 423.65 MILLION OZ

MAY 13/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.79 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 423.65 MILLION OZ//


MAY 12/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.076 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 420.861 MILLION OZ//

MAY 11.WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 417.785 MILLION OZ//

MAY 8/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A MONSTER DEPOSIT OF 4.661 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV..///INVENTORY RESTS AT 417.785 MILLION OZ//

MAY 7/WITH SILVER UP 45 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 413.124 MILLION OZ//

MAY 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 413.124 MILLION OZ//

MAY 5/WITH SILVER UP 17 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 413.124 MILLION OZ///

MAY 4//WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY:2 HUGE PAPER CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.i).A  LARGE 1.399 MILLION OZ OF PAPER SILVER REMOVED FROM THE SLV//..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 411.427 MILLION OZ and ii) A LARGE 1.647 MILLION OZ OF PAPER SILVER ADDED TO THE SLV//  INVENTORY RESTS AT 413.124 MILLION OZ//


MAY 1/WITH SILVER FLAT IN PRICE: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 412.826 MILLION OZ///

 

JUNE 19.2020:

SLV INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT

486.454 MILLION OZ.

END

 

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES//  GOLD LEASE RATES

 

 

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.55/ and libor 6 month duration 0.42

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

GOLD LENDING RATE: -2.13%

NEGATIVE GOLD LEASING RATES INCREASING BY A HUGE AMOUNT//GOLD SCARCITY AND CENTRAL BANKS CALLING IN ALL OF THEIR GOLD LEASES

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.11%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 0.58

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = -1.53%

 

end

 

 

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

 

 

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

A very important discussion between Chris Powell and Andrew Maguire.  Maguire states categorically that Scotia’s withdrawal from the precious metals arena is a forced regulatory decision and thus puts in doubt the resolution of the bank’s gold/silver positions as well as creates massive risks for Scotia’s counterparties.  Lawsuits will follow forthwith.

(ChrisPowell/Andrew Maguire/Kinesis)

Regulators are kicking Scotiabank out of gold, London trader Maguire says

 Section: 

12:51p ET Thursday, June 18, 2020

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

In a discussion with your secretary/treasurer this week, London metals trader and Kinesis Money founder Andrew Maguire says longtime metals bank Scotiabank is not only closing its metals trading desk but getting out of the vaulting business and all involvement with gold. Maguire says Scotiabank’s withdrawal is a “forced regulatory decision,” puts in doubt the resolution of the bank’s gold positions, creates risks for the bank’s counterparties, and raises the prospect of lawsuits.

The discussion also covers GATA’s documentation of gold market manipulation at the behest of Western central banks, GATA’s disclosure this month that gold market intervention by the Bank for International Settlements has reached its highest level in three years, the crumbling of the fractional-reserve gold banking system, and the prospect of an international currency revaluation that would peg the price of gold much higher.

The discussion is 37 minutes long and can be viewed at the Kinesis Money channel at You Tube here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=110&v=jeYiJ3kywz0&feature=em…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

This will not end well.  European central banks will pay banks to loan money as they borrow a record 1.31 trillion euros

(Reuters/GATA)

European Central Bank will pay banks not to shrink loan books

 Section: 

Banks Borrow Record 1.31 Trillion Euros from ECB

By Balazs Koranyi
Reuters
Thursday, June 18, 2020

FRANKFURT, Germany — Euro zone banks borrowed a record 1.31 trillion euros ($1.47 trillion) from the European Central Bank today, taking advantage of negative interest rates to meet growing demand for credit from companies hit by the deepest recession in living memory.

Launched six years ago, the ECB’s targeted-longer term refinancing operations were redesigned earlier this year to help the economy cope with the coronavirus crisis and banks will get the cash for a rate as low as minus 1%.

… 

At 1.31 trillion euros, take up is above expectations with most analysts predicting a figure just over 1 trillion euros for the three-year loans. Forecasts were generally in the 900 billion to 1.4 trillion euro range.

Although borrowing was more than twice as big as in any previous ECB facility, the net take is smaller as banks likely rolled over around 750 billion euros worth of earlier ECB funding to take advantage of record low rates.

The negative interest rate means banks that tapped the auction will earn 0.50% for one year with no strings attached and 1% if they simply refrain from shrinking their loan book. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-ecb-policy-loans/banks-borrow-record-1…

END

The wealthy are now seeking gold

Reuters/GATA)

World’s ultra-wealthy go for gold amid stimulus bonanza

 Section: 

By Brenna Hughes Neghaiwi and Simon Jessup
Reuters
Thursday, June 18, 2020

As stock markets roar back from the coronavirus-led rout, advisers to the world’s wealthy are urging them to hold more gold, questioning the strength of the rally and the long-term impact of global central banks’ cash splurge.

Before the COVID-19 pandemic, most private banks recommended their clients hold none or just a tiny amount of gold

Now some are channelling up to 10% of their clients’ portfolios into the yellow metal as the massive central bank stimulus reduces bond yields — making non-yielding gold more attractive — and raises the risk of inflation that would devalue other assets and currencies.

While gold prices have already risen 14% since the start of the year to $1,730 an ounce, many private bankers bet that gold — a hedge for both inflation and deflation — has more to run.

“Our view is that the weight of monetary supply, expansion, is going to ultimately be debasing to the dollar, and the Fed commitments, which are anchoring real rates, make the case for gold pretty sturdy,” said Lisa Shalett, Chief Investment Officer, Wealth Management at Morgan Stanley.

Nine private banks spoken to by Reuters, which collectively oversee around $6 trillion in assets for the world’s ultra-rich, said they had advised clients to increase their allocation to gold. Of them, four provided forecasts and all saw prices ending the year higher than they are now. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-gold-wealth-analys…

END

Alasdair Macleod explains the crisis initiated on March 23 and how this crisis escalates.

Your weekend reading

(Alasdair Macleod)

Alasdair Macleod: The crisis goes up a gear

 Section: 

By Alasdair Macleod
GoldMoney, St. Helier, Jersey, Channel Islands
Thursday, June 18, 2020

Dollar-denominated financial markets appeared to suffer a dramatic change on or about the 23 March. This article examines the possibility that it marks the beginning of the end for the Fed’s dollar.

At this stage of an evolving economic and financial crisis, such thoughts are necessarily speculative. But an imminent banking crisis is now a near certainty, with most global systemically important banks in a weaker position than at the time of the Lehman crisis. US markets appear oblivious to this risk, though the ratings of G-SIBs in other jurisdictions do reflect specific banking risks rather than a systemic one at this stage.

… 

A banking collapse will be a game-changer for financial markets, and we should then worry that the Fed has bound the dollar’s future to their fortunes.

The dollar could fail completely by the end of this year. Against that possibility a reset might be implemented, perhaps by reintroducing the greenback, which is not the same as the Fed’s dollar. Any reset is likely to fail unless the US Government desists from inflationary financing, which requires a radically changed mindset, even harder to imagine in a presidential election year. …

… For the remainder of the analysis:

https://www.goldmoney.com/research/goldmoney-insights/the-crisis-goes-up…

 

The crisis goes up a gear

Dollar-denominated financial markets appeared to suffer a dramatic change on or about the 23 March. This article examines the possibility that it marks the beginning of the end for the Fed’s dollar.

At this stage of an evolving economic and financial crisis, such thoughts are necessarily speculative. But an imminent banking crisis is now a near certainty, with most global systemically important banks in a weaker position than at the time of the Lehman crisis. US markets appear oblivious to this risk, though the ratings of G-SIBs in other jurisdictions do reflect specific banking risks rather than a systemic one at this stage.

A banking collapse will be a game-changer for financial markets, and we should then worry that the Fed has bound the dollar’s future to their fortunes.

The dollar could fail completely by the end of this year. Against that possibility a reset might be implemented, perhaps by reintroducing the greenback, which is not the same as the Fed’s dollar. Any reset is likely to fail unless the US Government desists from inflationary financing, which requires a radically changed mindset, even harder to imagine in a presidential election year.

Introduction

The most important mistake economists and financial watchers make is to assume events and prices tomorrow are simply projections of those of today. It is the basis of all economic and financial modelling. Yet despite the hard lessons of experience economic forecasters persist with their misleading models.

Nowhere is the failure of linear projection from the past more important than in the lifeblood common to everything. While knowing that state-issued currencies change in their utility over time, almost no one expects their demise, other perhaps at some point in the far distant future. But what if this generally linear expectation is as wrong as all other forecasting models? What if the response to the current economic crisis is a more rapid depreciation of currencies? And what happens if they die altogether? And what are the consequences for the ordinary person?

This article explores these what-ifs. It examines the conditions that could lead to this outcome. History gives us a guide, not through extrapolation, but by telling us that every recorded currency collapse has occurred to fiat currencies unbacked by gold or silver. So, we know it will happen — eventually. Less understood is that the pattern is always the same: a prolonged period of falling purchasing power, followed by a sudden collapse when a currency’s users finally reject it. In terms of time the latter phase usually lasts approximately six months.

Assessing the turning point

Screen Shot 2020 06 18 at 12.11.20 PM

The early morning of Monday, 23 March was a significant time, marking the top of the dollar’s trade-weighted index. At the same time, gold, silver and copper prices, having fallen in the weeks before turned sharply higher. And while oil initially followed, it was a month before it resumed its uptrend — delayed by the delivery hiatus in the futures markets which briefly drove the price negative. The S&P 500 rallied the following day, ending a near 30% decline before recovering all of it, and then some.

Something had changed. Either markets decided that economic growth, both in the US and the rest of the world was going to continue following lockdowns, and growing demand for key commodities was going to be resumed. Or, as the decline in the dollar’s TWI indicated, the purchasing power of the dollar was going to decline, and commodity prices were reflecting an accelerating downtrend for the dollar’s purchasing power.

The performance of the S&P 500 since 23 March, being unhinged from any business conditions, gives us a clue: the flood of money emanating from the Fed is fuelling stock prices. It is also fuelling prices of all other financial assets.

The turnaround in silver is a more subtle story, shown in the chart as the reciprocal of the more usual gold/silver ratio. Silver had been ignored, classed solely as an industrial metal. Gold was seen by the financial community as the only metallic hedge against uncertainty in the financial system. That changed on 23 March when the gold/silver ratio peaked at 125 on the previous business day. It is now beginning to outperform gold with the gold/silver ratio currently down to 98. We might look back and pinpoint this time as marking the beginning of a return to some moneyness in silver.

The weeks before had seen the Fed ease monetary policy. On 3 March, the Fed cut its funds rate from 1 ½% to 1%. In the accompanying announcement the Fed said that the fundamentals of the economy remained strong, but the coronavirus posed evolving risks to the economy.

On 15 March, the Fed cut its funds rate again, this time to zero, but the statement now said the coronavirus had harmed communities and disrupted economic activity in many countries, including the US. On a twelve-month basis, overall price inflation and price increases for other than food and energy were running at below 2%. The Fed announced renewed quantitative easing of at least $500bn of Treasury purchases and $200bn of mortgage-backed securities “in the coming months”.  It was “prepared to use its full range of tools to support the flow of credit to households and businesses and thereby promote its maximum employment and price stability goals.”

That day the Fed made two other announcements. The first detailed arrangements for the encouragement of credit expansion to support both consumers and businesses, including the reduction of reserve ratios for all banks to zero. The second concerned the reduction of costs in drawing down USD swap lines at the other major central banks. They were followed over the course of the week by a series of announcements facilitating the availability of credit.

Clearly, the Fed was engaging the ultimate in aggressive monetary policies. And taking a phrase from the last head of the ECB, the Fed had signalled it was prepared to do whatever it takes without limitation. But the response in the markets took a week to develop into an inflection point, a normal pause before a new direction is found.

Central bank inflation and bank credit difficulties

Since the Fed is one step removed from the non-financial economy it relies on commercial banks to implement its monetary policy. But commercial banks will only act as the Fed’s agents if they are confident the rewards are greater than the risks involved. If the current crisis is simply a matter of the coronavirus being contained before everything returns to normal, then bankers might be prepared to take a punt on an increase of bank lending.

But as time passes, the losses mount. Business and consumer defaults are increasing, and the prospects for a rapid recovery appear to be receding. Furthermore, liquidity strains in the banking system are resurfacing, despite the massive injections of QE by the Fed. After subsiding from the panicky days of last September, overnight repos are on the increase again totalling anything between $20—$100bn daily.

It has been generally forgotten that the global economy was already facing a recession before the virus lockdowns. Trade wars between America and China and bank credit expansion having run for a decade were a repeat of the conditions that led to the Wall Street Crash in 1929, when the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act following the roaring twenties was enacted, bank credit imploded, and the 1930s depression followed. Similarly, banks are now highly leveraged on their balance sheets and fear of bad debts has taken over from lending greed. The global banking cohort is increasingly desperate to reduce balance sheet commitments at the same time as the Fed and other central banks are frantic to see them expanded.

It is no wonder that the Fed’s expansion has remained bottled up in financial markets, driving financial assets even further into dangerous overvaluation territory. Consequently, without liquidity flowing more freely into the non-financial economy, bad debts can only deteriorate further, with loan risk rapidly increasing for commercial banks.

Systemic issues are being ignored

When the coronavirus first became an economic issue, there were mounting concerns over payment failures in supply chains. In the US, these payments are effectively the equivalent of gross output, which at the end of last year was running at $38 trillion. While we regard gross output as the value of products as they flow through their production stages, the payments flow the other way, back down the chains. Therefore, the $38 trillion figure can be taken as proxy for the sum of all supply chain payments in the US, to which must be added the dollar equivalents of supply chain payments outside the US for semi-manufactured imports.

Not all supply chains have been completely disrupted, so the good news is payment disruptions onshore should be significantly less than $38 trillion but could easily be half that. But there is likely to be additional disruption from abroad, a point addressed by the Fed when it increased the number of central banks (but not China) having access to its swap lines.

The risks to commercial banks are not so much from the largest corporations, likely to be bailed out if in trouble, but from lower tiers of borrowers. This affects banks with exposure to collateralised loan obligations, which are bundled loans to companies often unable to raise funds any other way — today’s version of the collateralised debt obligations that blew up the banking system in 2008. Additionally, banks have direct loans and revolving capital exposure on their balance sheets with all businesses in the $38 trillion of onshore supply chains.

The market capitalisation of the US’s G-SIBs — global systemically important banks — is less than a trillion dollars. Yet the supply chain failures that they are expected to backstop are many trillions — multiple times their market capitalisation, and even of their balance sheet equity.

Screen Shot 2020 06 18 at 12.12.12 PM

It seems hardly possible that the US banking system will survive the current supply chain disruption without help. The added bad news is that the US G-SIBs are rated much more highly in stock markets than their Chinese, Japanese, Eurozone, Swiss and UK competitors, shown in Figure 1 above.[i] It indicates that a systemic failure in dollar-denominated financial markets is not widely expected, given the generally higher market ratings afforded to US G-SIBs than for those in other jurisdictions. This probably explains why this topic is not yet a significant issue for dollar investors, though individual bank failures are more obviously an issue in other jurisdictions, where some G-SIB price to book ratios are below 30% while those of US G-SIBs average 93%.

The next significant event therefore will almost certainly be the failure of a G-SIB, if not in America, then elsewhere. Given the sheer scale of the problems in supply chains in all currencies and the accumulating bad debts attributable to lockdowns it could happen in a matter of weeks. Presumably, failing banks will be taken into public ownership with the Fed backstopping it with yet more inflationary finance. The impact on the Fed’s balance sheet, which has already grown to over $7 trillion will probably be several times its current size. But that, on its own, may not be enough to destroy the dollar.

A more direct danger is posed from monetary policies aimed at supporting financial asset values. In common with other major central banks the Fed has become reliant on a policy of ultra-low interest rates to fund its government’s deficit. At the same time, there has been a longstanding belief, particularly in America, that rising prices for financial assets, chiefly stocks, have been vital to generate a wealth effect and therefore maintain public confidence in the economic outlook. In current markets, this overvaluation policy has been taken to extremes with even teenagers reportedly buying fractionalised stocks through aggregating platforms, such as Robinhood, as if it is a just another computer game.

The dollar’s inevitable descent

In more normal times the excessive speculation in the markets seen today would encourage the Fed to inject some caution into monetary policy; but the Fed cannot backtrack for fear of triggering a catastrophic collapse. Consequently, the future of the dollar has become firmly tied to that of confidence in financial markets.

With a rapidly escalating budget deficit the US Government has a growing funding requirement, the cost of which already absorbs $400bn in interest charges annually. The Trump administration had increased its deficit to record levels in the good times when tax revenue was buoyant. And now the crisis has hit, higher interest rates will expose the US Government to a debt trap. This is a weapon the Fed cannot use.

As noted above, the next market shock is likely to be a systemic failure in the banking system. It matters not where that occurs, but when it does it makes bank depositors autarkic. Not only do they withdraw funds from banks they deem to be at risk thereby increasing their problems, but they also reduce cross-border currency exposure. The dollar is most exposed of all currencies to the latter risk: on last known figures foreigners owned about $25 trillion in securities, short-term paper and bank deposits, while Americans held roughly half that invested mainly in illiquid production facilities abroad, limited portfolio exposure to listed securities and with very little liquid foreign currency exposure.

In our headline chart we noted that the dollar’s turning point was 23 March and its subsequent downturn was part of a bigger commodity picture with gold, silver, copper and — belatedly — oil prices rising. In March, US TIC data showed that foreigners reduced their dollar exposure by $227.9bn, only offset by US residents’ net sales of foreign securities of $133.3bn.[ii] Here is the evidence that in troubled times money heads for home. Additionally, that month saw a trade deficit of $44.4bn suggesting total foreign-related dollar selling amounted to $177.7bn. This is only part of a bigger dollar picture, but it does appear foreigners were reducing their dollar exposure at the time that the dollar’s TWI peaked on 23 March.

This is important, because there are two market factors that have always led to a fiat currency collapse. The first is selling by foreigners, which appears to have commenced, and in this respect the dollar is particularly exposed. With some $25 trillion invested in US securities etc., the potential destruction to the dollar’s purchasing power from this source is significant. As global trade shrinks further, not only will foreigners be driven by the need to redeploy dollars into their currencies of origin, but they will stop funding the US Government, choosing to sell down their US Treasury holdings, a process which has already started. If the Fed is to successfully fund the growing budget deficit it must absorb foreign sales of US Treasuries as well as maintain sufficient levels of QE to fund a rapidly increasing budget deficit.

Just imagine the consequences of a systemic failure. The spell cast over financial assets will be broken. First, investors and speculators are likely to turn their attention to equities, being obviously the most overvalued financial assets at a time of intensifying crisis. Foreign investors will join, selling down their portfolio exposure, repatriating some, if not all of the proceeds by selling dollars as well. Next, with a falling dollar and a growing sensitivity to the political aspect of the crisis, market participants will reassess the US Government’s funding requirements and question the yield suppression policy of the Fed. Dollar selling seems bound to intensify.

It will then become obvious to everyone that the Fed is sacrificing the dollar in order to fund the government, keep the banking system going and to support the economy by attempting to provide the liquidity to defray supply chain failures. It will already be demonstrably failing to support financial asset prices, which has become the visible manifestation of a successful monetary policy. It would be a miracle if this failure, in Trump’s election year with a socialistic president being lined up by the Democrats, does not lead to a full-blown financial and dollar crisis.

Unless the Fed can raise interest rates to the point where it is too expensive for speculators to short the dollar (which we can rule out), it will enter the second phase of its collapse, driven by US residents realising the dollar is losing purchasing power, rather than prices rising. The purchasing power of any money depends on the balance between money and goods maintained by its users. If they collectively reject the money in favour of goods, then money’s purchasing power declines, potentially to zero. Following foreign selling, this is the second phase of the destruction of a fiat currency, which in past examples have taken roughly six months for it to become worthless.

There are three factors that could shorten this timescale even further: the replacement of cash and cheques by digital payments, modern communications leading to the rapid spread of information, and as a consequence of the development of cryptocurrencies, wider public foreknowledge of the weaknesses of unbacked fiat currencies.

The case for fiat currency survival beyond 2020

The circumstantial evidence that the dollar will collapse before the year-end is mounting. Cassandra opened her casket, the evils escaped, and only hope remains trapped.

Or so it seems. We cannot divine the future. We can only sift the evidence, be aware of common fallacies and avoid the temptation to wrongly extrapolate from yesterday into the future. While our method may be better than the macroeconomic forecasting beloved of the establishment, a predicted outcome is never reality. And it is possible the US Treasury might attempt a reset, perhaps using Treasury dollars, otherwise known as greenbacks, which were last issued in 1971. But without axing government welfare commitments to the American public, returning to balanced budgets and abandoning Fed dollar denominated debt this sort of legerdemain is unconvincing. Furthermore, the dollar’s reserve role for other currencies would have to be abandoned because of the monetary inflation involved in Triffin’s dilemma. And other currencies tied to the Fed’s dollar held in their reserves would still face their own collapse.

A reset abandoning the Fed’s dollar in favour of greenbacks is possible. But history has shown that the introduction of a replacement currency for one that has collapsed fails unless government financing by monetary expansion is demonstrably abandoned. Only time will tell whether in a presidential election year the US Government musters the clarity of purpose to implement a new lasting dollar regime.

The US Treasury says it still has over 8,000 tonnes of gold. If it is willing to drop its neo-Keynesian economics and its long-standing denial of gold’s monetary function, America could reintroduce gold convertibility for the greenbacks. This would probably be a last resort. It reneges on the Fed’s balance sheet note — which in these conditions would be its only significant asset, involves the abandonment of the welfare state and America’s longstanding geopolitical aims, and it allows China to gain potential advantage by displacing the dollar with a more convincing gold convertibility of its own.

China has deliberately cornered the gold bullion market in plans that go back to the time of Deng. Almost certainly, following the introduction of its Regulations on the Control of Gold and Silver (1983), the Chinese state accumulated sufficient gold for its strategic purposes by the time it then permitted its citizens to buy gold with the opening of the Shanghai Gold Exchange in 2002. The gold acquired by the state at that time is not declared as monetary gold and the quantity is unknown, but after examining inward investment flows net of trade deficits in the 1980s and growing export surpluses subsequently, a ten per cent allocation of foreign exchange gained into gold at contemporary prices suggests a position of some 20,000 tonnes of bullion was likely to have been accumulated by 2002.

There is no way of establishing the facts, and therefore statements about the Chinese state’s ownership of bullion are necessarily speculative. But additional evidence is compelling:

• China is now the largest gold mining nation by far, extracting an estimated 4,200 tonnes since 2010, more than any other nation. This has been driven by government policy.

• The state controls all Chinese gold and silver refining, taking in doré from abroad to add to Chinese stocks. At the same time, virtually no Chinese refined gold kilo bars are permitted to leave the country.

• In 2002, when the Shanghai Gold Exchange was set up by the Peoples’ Bank of China the Chinese government encouraged its nationals to acquire physical gold, even advertising its attractions in state media. Since 2010 alone, 17,200 tonnes have been delivered into public hands by the SGE. These figures were achieved by importing bullion from the West in enormous quantities.

• Its allies in Asia, principally members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, have also been acquiring gold. Russia has been particularly aggressive in dumping dollars for gold.

• China now dominates physical gold markets and can be said to control them.

 

Given all these verifiable facts, it seems unlikely that a state which centrally plans would not have acquired for its own use substantial quantities of bullion ahead of the establishment of the SGE. America knows it and continues to resist gold having a monetary role. If America’s anti-gold policy changed, it would restrict the dollar’s circulation abroad. It would mark the end of dollar hegemony and a gold-backed yuan would become the foreign currency of choice throughout Asia, eastern Europe, the Middle East and Africa.

Conclusions and consequences

A banking crisis in the coming weeks is an increasingly likely event, given the scale of disruption to supply chains. The escalation of bankruptcies and of non-performing loans worldwide will almost certainly take the banking system down. It will be a watershed, a wake-up call to all those who expect a return to normality after the coronavirus passes.

For the moment, central banks are throwing money at the problem; money which remains stuck in financial assets, inflating them even further, and not being transmitted to the non-financial economy by banks already over-leveraged to failing borrowers.

We can be certain central bankers and government treasury departments are only now grasping the enormity of these problems, but they are still behaving as if chucking money at them is a viable solution. They will only destroy their unbacked fiat currencies, and that destruction, starting with the dollar, is already in progress. The clock is ticking from 23 March. While there may be attempts at a fiat money reset, without clear legal commitments from central banks and treasury departments to end inflationary financing, any reset will only delay currency destruction by a matter of months.

The consequences of such an outcome are always devastating, the more so because all major westernised central banks are committed to the same inflationary policies at the same time. The political consequences do not bear thinking about.

At some stage, hopefully sooner rather than later, metallic money will regain circulation. And when prices are set in gold or silver, perhaps through fully backed substitutes, the stability they bring will end the trappings of fiat currencies. All this destruction is measured in current terms, nearly all from statistics collected by the Bank for International Settlements.

Gone will be worldwide fiat currency debt, amounting to some $250—$300 trillion. Gone will be all OTC derivatives which settle in fiat, amounting to a further $560 trillion. Gone will be listed derivatives, a further $33 trillion. Gone will be options, a further $65 trillion. All these, totalling over $900 trillion, are only part of the destruction.

Global deposits held as bank balances totalling $60 trillion will evaporate. Worldwide equity markets denominated in fiat are a further $70 trillion; anything that does not migrate from fiat pricing disappears, including most, if not all ETFs. Goodbye to hedge funds. Goodbye to offshore financial centres. Goodbye to onshore financial centres. Goodbye to $100 trillion of fiat money.

Life will be very different, and those not prepared for it, principally by retaining a store of non-fiat, sound money, which can only be physical gold and silver until credible substitutes arise, will face impoverishment. Measured in real money, the value of non-financial physical assets will collapse due to the preponderance of desperate sellers to whom survival is most important, even though priced in worthless fiat their prices will have risen. The experience of inflationary collapses in Germany and Austria in the early 1920s showed the way, when country estates went for almost nothing in gold-back dollars and $100 would buy a mansion in Berlin.

None of this is expected. It may not happen, but the chances of it happening  appear to have increased significantly from 23 March.

iii) Other physical stories:

A must read on why you should buy silver

(courtesy Steve St Angelo)

MAJOR FACTOR TO INVEST IN SILVER: Five Billion Ounces Of Mine Supply Economically Lost In Past Decade

Silver will likely turn out to be one heck of a better investment than gold due to the rarity of the metal and lack of available supply in the future.  While gold has stolen the show recently, I’ll bet my bottom Silver Dollar that silver will outperform gold during the next financial-currency crisis.

But, before I provide my analysis, I wanted to make a few comments about the analysts who say that “SILVER ISN’T A REAL INVESTMENT” like gold.  I follow many websites and newsletters, and there seems to be this notion that silver is just an industrial metal, and its lousy price performance so far this year, versus gold, proves it isn’t worth of investing.

Yes, it’s true that silver has underperformed gold and may likely experience a paper price selloff once the broader stock markets begin to crash once again.  However, at that time, I imagine acquiring silver retail bullion products will even more difficult than it was during March-April.

Regardless, the reason I believe silver will be one of the few KEY INVESTMENTS to own going forward has to do with the dire energy predicament we face… which I label as the ENERGY CLIFF.  Unfortunately, most analysts that look at silver as more of an industrial metal do not understand the Falling EROI – Energy Returned On Investment and how it’s impacting the global economy and financial system.

So, they continue to criticize the “Silver Pumpers” or “Silver Hypers” as mere charlatans.  I find this simply hilarious when the Federal Reserve just purchased $3 trillion worth of assets in just the past three months.  Furthermore, total U.S. public debt increased $25 billion per day in 2020, more than five times the average daily rate over the past decade.

While all this fancy FED FINANCIAL WIZARD OF OZ propping hasn’t destroyed the U.S. Dollar or the faith in the U.S. Treasury Market, it will in time.  Just be patient.  At that point, those few who own physical precious metals, especially silver, will be glad that they understood that you couldn’t erase 2,000+ years of SILVER MONETARY HISTORY.

THAT’S CORRECT… Over The Past Decade, 5 Billion Ounces Of Silver Mine Supply Likely Lost Forever

The irony of being an ANTI-SILVER analyst will actually be the reason to invest in silver.  Again, most analysts look at silver as more an industrial metal.  They say the real monetary metal is gold, not silver.  However, what seems to be seriously overlooked by these analysts is that silver is still by far the most acquired investment metal, IN TROY OUNCES.  From 2010 to 2019, total global physical silver investment demand was 2.3 billion oz versus 345 million oz for gold.  Sure, the Dollar amount of investment gold was much higher, but ounce for ounce, silver is the largest physical metal investment market in the world.

With that being said, silver investors should be happy to know that 5 billion ounces of world mine supply over the past decade is likely lost forever.  The term I use for this lost silver supply is “ECONOMICALLY LOST” metal.

Some precious metals analysts, such as Jan Nieuwenhuijs of Voima Gold, stated that there was a lot more above-ground silver in the world than what the Silver Institute discloses as “Identifiable above-ground stocks.”  Jan argues that there are 1.6 million tons or 51 billion oz of above-ground stocks in the world, 20 times higher than the quoted 2.5 billion oz of physical investment silver stocks by GFMS in the 2019 World Silver Survey.

What Jan seems to ignore conveniently is that a large percentage of that silver is “Economically Lost” forever.  How realistic is it to include most of the silver used for industrial purposes that are still in old homes, appliances, electronics, or in landfills across the world??  We can’t include this “Economically Lost” silver as above-ground inventories in some silly “Stock to Flow” calculation.  It’s pure RUBBISH.

If we look at the silver market over the past decade, my calculations suggest that at least 5 billion oz of silver mine supply were Economically lost.  I derived this figure by determining how much silver was recycled in each category annually and then estimated the total amount lost.  First, I started with the total silver mine supply from 2010 to 2019 and then subtracted the estimated Economically Lost amount:

Approximately 60% or 5 billion oz of the total 8.35 billion oz of silver mine supply from 2010-2019 was economically lost.  Now, compare that to the estimated 123 million ounces or only 12% of the gold mine supply lost over the past decade.  Thus, 88+% of the 1+ billion oz of gold mined over the same period can still be counted as Above-Ground stocks.  Most of the gold that was economically lost 2010-2019 was in the technology sector.  According to the World Gold Council, over those ten years, gold consumption in the technology sector was 116 million oz.  While some of this high-tech gold is recycled, 90% of global gold recycling comes from scrap gold jewelry (Source: World Gold Council).

Unfortunately, most people who buy silver jewelry end up throwing it away rather than selling it for scrap recycling.  It’s just not worth the effort and time to drive to the pawnshop to sell $10-$25 worth of silver jewelry.  Thus, the majority of silver jewelry that was fabricated over the past 50 years is likely never to be recycled.  Sure, if the silver price goes up to $100, we may see more silver jewelry recycling, but I doubt we will see billions of ounces come back in the market.

For example, over the past decade, of the 1.86 billion ounces of total world silver recycling, jewelry scrap supply only accounted for 12% of that total.  Thus, of the total 1.87 billion oz of silver jewelry demand 2010-2019, I determined that at a conservative 15%, only 281 million oz may be recycled.  No, it’s not a typo.  Total silver recycling from that ten-year period was 1.86 billion oz versus 1.87 billion oz of silver jewelry demand.  Source for both silver recycling and mine supply comes from the Silver Institute’s World Silver Surveys.

Now, if we add the total world silver mine supply from 2010 to 2019, it equals 8.35 billion oz:

Here is why silver will be a much better-performing investment asset in the future than gold.

Silver vs. Gold:  Mine Supply & Recycling (2010-2019)

  • Global Silver Mine Supply = 8.35 billion oz
  • Global Silver Recycling = 1.86 billion oz
  • Silver Recycling-Mine Supply Ratio = 22%
  • Global Gold Mine Supply = 1.03 billion oz
  • Global Gold Recycling = 424 million oz
  • Gold Recycling-Mine Supply Ratio = 42%

Because only 8% of world gold demand is in the technology sector (2010-2019) versus approximately 50% for silver industrial consumption, most silver mined is economically lost forever.  During the ten-year period, 4.8 billion oz of silver was consumed in the industrial sector.  On average, only 20% of the annual industrial silver demand is recycled.  Thus, less than 1 billion oz of that total 4.8 billion consumed in the industrial sector will likely be recovered.

Thus, adding up the possible recycling from that 8.35 billion of silver mine supply in the Industrial, Jewelry and Silverware sectors, and adding it to the physical silver investment demand (assumed at 100% recycled), I arrived at approximately 3.3 billion oz of silver NOT ECONOMICALLY LOST.  By subtracting the two, I came up with the 5 billion oz of Economically Lost silver supply.

Again, this is just a simple calculation.  Now, some might say, “If silver price shoots back up to $50, wouldn’t that bring on a lot more silver scrap recycling?”  It may.  However, in 2011 when the silver price reached $50, the total amount recycled was 230 million oz.  Even if we say 250 million oz per year over a decade, that would only be 2.5 billion oz of recycling.  That is still far below the 8.35 billion oz of total global silver mine supply over that period.

Silver investors are sitting on an excellent investment that few understand the powerful fundamental dynamics.  I say, let the Federal Reserve and U.S. Government continue to print trillions to prop up the markets.  The more money they print and the more debt is added to the system, the better the fundamentals to own precious metals, especially silver.

THANK YOU ALL FOR THE SUPPORT:  I just wanted to thank all the individuals who continue to support the SRSrocco Report website and youtube channel.  I know some of you have canceled memberships as times are tough.  I understand.  If you are new to the site and find the information valuable, please consider supporting the website, if you have the means to do so, at Paypal or Patreon below.

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END

This is interesting:  Goldman who is now the leader of the pack for the new physical gold contract at the LME states gold will rise to 2,000.00 in the next 12 months.

(Reuters)

Goldman hikes 12-month gold price forecast to $2,000/oz

 

June 19 (Reuters) – Goldman Sachs raised its gold price forecast on Friday as it expects a rally in bullion to continue due to currency debasement fears and economic uncertainty caused by the coronavirus crisis.

The bank raised its three, six and 12-month gold price estimates to $1,800, $1,900 and $2,000 per ounce from $1,600, $1,650 and 1,800 per ounce, respectively.

“Policy uncertainty aside, we believe that debasement fears remain the key driver of gold prices in a post-crisis environment such as this,” analysts at Goldman Sachs wrote in a note.

A weaker dollar will boost the purchasing power of major gold consumers across emerging markets along with easing of lockdowns, the bank added.

Faced with both an unprecedented shock and policy response, it remains unclear how inflationary the economic recovery will be, Goldman said.

“For gold prices to go materially above $2,000, we believe inflation will need to move above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target and this move to be met with a muted policy response.”

The U.S. bank warned that prices are likely to correct in a similar manner to 2013 if inflation doesn’t return as the global economy recovers.

It added the correction could come when investors start to believe that the Fed will withdraw its monetary policy support.

Lower interest rates and widespread stimulus measures tend to boost demand for bullion, which is often seen as a hedge against inflation and currency debasement.

Spot gold prices, which were trading around $1,730 an ounce on Friday, have surged nearly 14% this year boosted by unprecedented central bank stimulus measures as the coronavirus outbreak wrecked economies.

The U.S. bank also raised its three, six and 12-month estimates for silver to $19, $21 and $22 per ounce from $13.5, $14 and $15 per ounce, respectively.

-END-

end

Ronan Manly gives a good explanation as to what we have recorded for you on the Comex these past 4 months

a must read….

Ronan Manly

Ronan Manly is a precious metals analyst with BullionStar whose blogs
often cover current themes including what’s going on in the
London gold market and the gold activities of central banks.

 

The Curious Case of COMEX Gold Deliveries in April and June

  •  18 Jun 2020 20:50

Did you think that the high-powered world of the LBMA would operate in a fishbowl for all to see? – ANOTHER

A lot has been written about the London gold spot price – COMEX gold futures price spread (EFP) blow up on 23/24 March, whose detonation has sent blast waves across the gold market on each side of the Atlantic, and whose trigger has been the subject of much speculation and debate.

Importantly, the fallout from this seismic event continues to roll on, and has caused unusual goings-on among the bullion banks in London and New York, such as:

– Deteriorating liquidity (bullion banks rapidly departing COMEX and London gold trading)

– Large trading losses at bullion banks, for example HSBC

– Gold borrowing rates rising over the time of the March event

– Bullion banks scrambling to secure physical gold to send to New York

– The SPDR Gold Trust ETF using gold stored at the Bank of England

– Sharp drops in COMEX gold futures open interest (OI)

– The launch of a COMEX 400 oz contract and 400 oz bars in COMEX vaults

– Huge volumes of gold bar exports from Switzerland to New York

– Record gold inventory build-ups in COMEX approved vaults

– Record numbers of COMEX gold contracts moving to delivery (June and April)

Is all of this connected you may ask? The answer in my view, is yes, but not in the way that you may think.

Coordinated but panicked collusion in the gold market –  LBMA and COMEX

However, given the opacity of the wholesale gold market and the unconvincing explanations from its fronting organizations the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) and COMEX operator CME Group (e.g. closed refineries, grounded flights), those looking for a ‘Theory of Everything’ framework to connect all of the above have had to do so on their own.

While Bloomberg and Reuters are content with repeating spoon-fed handouts about all of the above – eating the breadcrumbs instead of following the trail – and between them have published at least 30 articles on the subject, thankfully there are many on the sidelines who are more inquiring and less gullible, hence the skepticism, speculation and debate.

In an open and transparent market where full gold trade data including Exchange for Physical (EFP) and gold allocation trades were published in real time, all market participants would instantly assimilate and understand the late March event and its aftermath, and with those full facts the market would instantly and accurately be able to predict and monitor the succeeding chain of events – which by the way – are still in motion, a case in point being at the COMEX, where right now unprecedented numbers of COMEX gold futures contracts are moving into delivery.

Familiar to many, the Commodity Exchange (COMEX) owned by CME Group is the world’s largest gold futures trading venue, and although gold futures trading now takes place on CME’s Globex and Clearport electronic platforms, the COMEX has its roots as a New York exchange, and is hence synonymous with “New York” gold trading.

Most importantly, the COMEX 100 oz gold futures contract, along with the London OTC gold market, between them have a near monopoly on gold price discovery, and are the playground of the LBMA bullion banks such as JP Morgan, HSBC, Scotia, and Goldman Sachs which dominate and control both venues.

Electronic Warrants – The Delivery Process

The COMEX 100 oz gold futures contract is structured as a deliverable gold futures contract with delivery being in the form of an electronic warehouse (vault) warrant representing one 100 troy oz gold bar or three 1 kilo gold bars.  . The gold backing these contracts is claimed to be in the network of COMEX approved vaults in New York City (and Delaware).

However, while COMEX 100 oz contract offers the ability to make and take delivery of gold in these vaults through a process of vault warrant transfers, normally in practice, the vast majority of COMEX 100 ounce gold futures are never delivered, they are offset (closed out) and cash-settled, or else rolled over to the next active month. Normally, only a tiny fraction of these gold futures contracts are ever ‘delivered’.

The COMEX gold warrant delivery process. Source.

COMEX gold vault warrants contain information such as brand and weight of the gold bar that the warrant represents and which approved COMEX vault it is supposedly stored in. While a long contract holder can make its clearing firm and the Exchange aware that it wants delivery, it’s the short futures holder that actually submits the warrant for delivery (in a CME online app called Deliveries Plus), with the CME matching the warrant to the long and facilitating the transfer of title to the long.

For delivery intent notices (see below), it is therefore the short who submits notice of intention to deliver a warrant, after which the CME clearinghouse matches the sides, issues allocation notices to the long and issues invoices to both parties. Delivery can then take place on any business day during the delivery month, at which point the short receives dollar funds and the long (buyer) receives the warrant (electronically) in the Deliveries Plus application. A presentation from CME which can be read here, explains the main steps of the delivery process.

Importantly, the buyer of the future (long) has no control over which of the COMEX vaults the warrant it receives refers to. It is the Exchange (COMEX) which assigns delivery to a specific vault. Note also that physical withdrawal of the gold bars underlying warrants is a totally separate step between the warrant holder and the vault where the gold is supposedly held and will involve transport costs and no doubt persistence to convince the COMEX approved vault to allow you to withdraw your gold bars.

Warehouse warrants are also central to any discussion of the gold inventories claimed to be in the COMEX approved vaults in New York and Delaware, since metal under warrant is in COMEX parlance ‘Registered gold’, while Eligible gold is not. Eligible gold is just any gold that happens to be in a COMEX approved vault that is of an approved weight and refiner brand that could be used in the COMEX delivery process. Also, pledged gold is registered gold (under warrant) that “is on deposit with CME Clearing for performance bond” (collateral), and importantly, warrants for pledged gold cannot be use “to satisfy delivery obligations”.

Issues and Stops – The Delivery Report

Central to the delivery process of COMEX gold warrants between shorts (the gold sellers) to longs (gold buyers) is a CME report called the COMEX Metals Delivery Notices report, also known as the Metals Issues And Stops report. This report is published in daily, monthly and year-to-date versions and can be accessed here. Now more than ever, this report is worth looking into since COMEX “delivery” numbers have literally ‘gone off the charts”.

Not the easiest report in the world to read, essential points to remember in the Issues And Stops report are that:

– A delivery notice is the seller’s notice to the CME clearing house of his intention to make delivery against an open short futures position.

– The Issues and Stops report lists clearing firms of CME that have been matched for making or taking delivery, and the aggregate number of contracts making or taking delivery for each clearing firm.

– Clearing firms are banks that work directly through the CME’s clearing house to execute trades on behalf of futures market participants.

– “Issued” refers to contract short positions that issue notices intending to deliver warrants representing gold

– “Stopped” refers to contract long positions that are receiving delivery notices for warrants representing gold

– In essence, ‘issues’ makes delivery and ‘stops’ takes delivery

– On each report, the sum of the Issues adds up to the sum of the Stops. They have to as they are two sides of the same transfers

– H refers to on behalf of a house account (for house). A house account is a clearing firm’s proprietary non-segregated trading account

– C refers to on behalf of a customer account (for customer). A client account is a client of the clearing firm

– Figures under House Issued refer to the number of warrants that a House account needs to deliver. House Stopped refers to the number of contracts where a House account will receive. Similarly, a Client Issued refers to a client account having to deliver a warrant, and a client stopped is will receive.

– Apart from the clearing firm names, the Issues and Stops report does not list the identities of any account holders, nor does it say anything about which warrants are being delivered and which vaults the warrants are associated with.

The above is important as it helps interpret what’s been happening on the COMEX gold notice report since the end of March.

Stand and Deliver

On 31 March, a week after the 23/24 March spot – futures blowups and the first notice day for the then active April gold futures, COMEX watchers were stunned when a huge 17,302 contracts representing (1,730,200 ozs or 53.81 tonnes) of gold appeared on the Delivery Notice report, which was 56% of registered stocks on that day or 67% when of registered stocks excluding pledged gold.

Over subsequent days in April, this number expanded to a massive 31,666 contracts (98.5 tonnes), a record at the time. To put this into perspective, for the 3 preceding months January to March, a combined total of only 13,864 contracts had gone to delivery, an average of 4,621 per month. Now April’s report was showing nearly 7 times that amount.

BullionStar@BullionStar

COMEX gold deliveries stopped for 17302 contracts, first day, meaning contract holders want 53.81 tonnes of gold. See the tall bar on the left hand side of the 4th frame of the chart.

View image on Twitter

BullionStar@BullionStar

With gold futures contracts representing 1.73 million ozs of gold wanting delivery, and only 3.07 million ounces of Registered gold in the COMEX vaults, that means deliveries are already 56% of registers stocks. 👀

View image on Twitter

On Comex, gold contracts are listed for the nearest 3 consecutive months, and also for any February, April, August, or October in the next 2 years, and any June and December in the next 5 years.

The front month contract (or spot month) is the month closest to delivery and will also usually be the most active and liquid until traders roll positions to the next active month before first notice day and expiration of the near month and before liquidity dries up. Back in late March and early April the shift was out of the April contract and into the June contract. Then in late May and shift was out of the June contract and into the August contract.

While the April deliveries of 31,666 contracts were unprecedented, that was just a warm up, something which became apparent when the intent for deliveries notices for the June contract started showing up from late May onwards. On 29 May, first notice day for June deliveries, COMEX released a report showing that short holders had indicated that they were moving an incredible 28,375 contracts for delivery on the first day, which was nearly as many contracts as went through in the whole of April, itself a previous record month. From there the contracts intending to deliver just piled, over 7,000 the next day, 6,000 the day after that, to a situation where there are now 52,010 June contracts lined up for delivery. That’s 5,201,000 ozs of gold or 161.7 tonnes. With June Open Interest now at tiny levels, it looks like 5.2 million ozs is now more or less the amounts of gold warrants which will be delivered for June. See table below from the Issues and Stops report for the latest June delivery intent total.

Stand and Deliver – Record June gold futures delivery intents. Source

The chart below shows the 2 huge spikes in delivery notices in April and June and the subsequent accumulation of delivery notices in each of those delivery periods. In contrast, notice the small quantities of delivery notices from January to March and again in May.

A zoomed out version of the above chart covering a 5 year horizon from 2015 to 2020 can be seen in the below chart. Again, the stopped contract deliveries in June and April 2020, both the first notice day spikes and the cumulative monthly totals, are unprecedented.

COMEX Stopped gold contracts spiked in April and June 2020, with 5.2 millon ozs moving to delivery by June 18. Source: www.goldchartsrus.com

Looking at which clearing firms are the big players in issuing and stopping, it will not come as a surprise that dominant gold trader JP Morgan leads the pack across both client and house accounts. JP Morgan accounts for nearly 25,000 contracts for client accounts stopped (taking delivery) in June, and over 20,000 contracts for client accounts issued (making delivery) in June. Morgan was also the dominant issuer and stopper in April and May. In fact, JP Morgan accounts for issuing and stopping over 50,000 contracts over the April to June period. Other bullion banks with large activity for the June contracts include Goldman Sachs, issuing for clients but receiving more for house, Morgan Stanley receiving for house, and Scotia, BNP and RBC issuing for house. Notable for having less activity in all of this is HSBC, a diminished presence?

The Swiss Angle

With 5,201,000 ozs of gold (161.7 tonnes) involved in these delivery notices, this is interestingly just a few tonnes more than all the gold that was exported from Switzerland to the New York during March and April, i.e. 42.7 tonnes in March and 110.6 tonnes in April, for a combined 153.3 tonnes.

Swiss gold exports to US, March 2020. Source: www.GoldChartsRUs.com

Switzerland never normally exports gold to the US. In fact, the US usually exports gold to Switzerland gold to Switzerland – to be refined. Why was 153.3 tonnes rushed into New York during late March and April. Were these COMEX deliveries known about in advance?

Swiss gold exports to US, April 2020. Source: www.GoldChartsRUs.com

Another coincidence is that the amount of gold that has flowed into COMEX since early April that is reported as eligible for the new COMEX 400 oz gold futures contract totals 155.67 tonnes of gold. Very similar to the total amount of gold ready to be delivered for the June 100 oz contract.

The next article will look at the flows into the COMEX gold vaults since 23 March, which have totaled a huge 694 tonnes, comprising 363 tonnes in eligible and 331 tonnes in registered. This has brought registered stocks up to 387 tonnes and eligible stocks to 578 tonnes, for a combined total of 965 tonnes.

Could it be that the entity or entities that were looking for gold in London on 23-24 March and didn’t get it, switched their attention back to the COMEX and demanded delivery through futures, the delivery of which is now panning out? A trans-Atlantic shock that left bullion banks scrambling.

end
Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early FRIDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 7.0733/ GETTING VERY DANGEROUSLY PAST 7:1

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  7.0669   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 28.32 POINTS OR 0.96%

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 178.95 POINTS OR 0.73%

 

2. Nikkei closed UP 123.33 POINTS OR 0.55%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL GREEN/

 

 

 

USA dollar index DOWN TO 97.33/Euro RISES TO 1.1223

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. +.01/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 106.77/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 40.03 and Brent: 42/54

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE UP/OFF- SHORE: UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO -.44%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 1.39% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.50%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.83: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 1.19

3k Gold at $14735.50 silver at: 17.66   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 10/100 in roubles/dollar) 69.34

3m oil into the 40 dollar handle for WTI and 42 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 106.77 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9490 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0677 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to 0.44%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 0.73% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 1.51%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 6.8572..

 

Futures Jump On China Trade-Deal Optimism Ahead Of Quad-Witch Friday

What do you get when you mix reopening optimism with stimulus hopes and throw in some good old “2019-style” US-China trade optimism? You get a session like overnight, where headed into what is usually an especially volatile quad-expiration day, at the curious time of 2:34am ET, or just before the European open, Bloomberg reported that with the Phase 1 trade deal largely forgotten, China planned to accelerate purchases of American farm goods to comply with the phase one trade deal with the U.S. following talks in Hawaii this week: the world’s top soybean importer intends to step up buying of everything from soybeans to corn and ethanol after purchases fell behind due to coronavirus disruptions” Bloomberg reported citing sources, and that’s all last year’s trade war algos needed to push futures to overnight highs.

As a result of the report promising a “return” to the trade deal, which is laughably unachievable…

… but was enough to fool the algos, S&P index futures rose about 1% on Friday as investors also bet on a bounce back in post-pandemic economic activity, shrugging off the daily increase in new coronavirus infections in several states. Oil major Exxon Mobil rose 1.7% in premarket trading and Chevron gained 0.4% as Brent crude rose above $42 a barrel amid signs of gradual recovery in demand and oil producers’ promise to meet supply cuts. AMC Entertainment jumped 7.6% on plans to reopen theaters at about 450 locations in the United States next month and the company expects returning to full-seating capacity around Thanksgiving.

Meanwhile, on the virus front, on Thursday California, Florida and North Carolina imposed a mandatory mask use on Thursday as at least six states set daily records for new coronavirus cases. Mainland China also reported 32 new cases of infections, an uptick from a day earlier. Risk of a resurgence of the virus outbreak has led to choppy trading sessions this week, but the three main stock indexes are set to wrap up the week higher after a strong retail sales report for May and signs of additional official stimulus.

The S&P 500 ended marginally higher on Thursday while the Nasdaq posted its sixteenth rise in the past 19 sessions. The benchmark S&P 500 and the blue-chip Dow are now about 8% and 12% below their respective record closing highs hit in February, while the Nasdaq is about 0.5% below its all-time closing high on June 10.

In Europe, attention turned to negotiations over the EU’s proposed €750 billion program to help economies rebound from lockdowns, which sent the Stoxx 600 Index up as much as 1%. Wirecard AG shares bucked the trend, continuing their free-fall as the German payments company faced a potential cash crunch.

Attention will turn to the European Council summit of EU leaders, which will be taking place via videoconference from this morning. One of the main items on the agenda is the EU recovery fund, while there’ll also be discussions on the bloc’s long-term budget for the next 7 years. In terms of what to expect, hopes of a breakthrough on the recovery fund have been managed downwards recently, and the signs are instead pointing to an agreement no sooner than an as-yet unscheduled summit meeting in July. And with unanimity between the member states required for an agreement, the question will be how the so-called ‘Frugal Four’ of Sweden, the Netherlands, Denmark and Austria (all of which ran budget surpluses going into the pandemic) can move on board with the proposals. In an FT article on Tuesday, their four PMs said that they “support the creation of a time-limited emergency recovery fund”, so the question is whether they’ll be on board with grants as opposed to loans to the different member states. A negative outcome would be if there were a bunch of red lines or if we saw signs of reduced commitment to a large fund as the economic indicators recover. A more positive outcome would be if there were flexibility between the various positions.

Asian stocks also gained, led by energy and IT, after ending flat in the last session. Most markets in the region were up, with India’s S&P BSE Sensex Index gaining 1.1% and Shanghai Composite rising 1%, while Singapore’s Straits Times Index dropped 0.7%. Trading volume for MSCI Asia Pacific Index members was 18% above the monthly average for this time of the day. The Topix was little changed, with Management Solutions rising and Alpha Systems falling the most. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1%, with Maoye Commercial Co Ltd and Hangzhou Jiebai Group posting the biggest advances.

While the overnight ramp has eased potential downside pressures somewhat, markets are expected to become more volatile during Friday’s session on account of quad witching, as investors unwind interests in futures and options contracts prior to expiration.

“Investors need to be prepared,” said Chris Gaffney, president of world markets at TIAA Bank. “When we see the run-up like we’ve seen and you have investors trying to protect their portfolios, protect the gains and having the uncertainty still out there, you’ve got some big options positions in the markets right now and the decisions to roll them or not on that day is what drives the volatility.”

In FX, the Bloomberg dollar index slipped following news that China plans to accelerate purchases of American farm goods to comply with the phase one trade deal with the US,yet still headed for gains this week, supported by investors seeking haven currencies on rising concern that a second wave of coronavirus infections will delay a global economic recovery. G-10 currencies moved within tight ranges on Friday; the yen was little changed on the day but rose against almost all its major peers on the week amid a resurgence of the virus outbreak in Beijing and a jump in hospitalizations in some U.S. states. Mexico reported a record daily rise in cases in data released Thursday night.

In rates, Treasuries are lower led by long end, leaving 20- to 30-year yields cheaper by ~1bp vs Thursday’s close. Session lows were reached during Asia session as U.S. stock futures advanced. Market continues to show signs of fatigue with futures volumes still well below par.

In commodities, WTI and Brent future continues marching higher in early European trade as the complex was buoyed by overall risk appetite following reports that China will be stepping up purchase of US farms goods, whilst the contracts are also supported after yesterday’s JMMC meeting where Iraq and Kazakhstan submitted their proposals to compensate for overproduction, although the committee have delayed the press conference to next week as Nigeria and Angola have not yet submitted their compliance proposals.

Looking at the day ahead now, the main highlight will probably be the aforementioned European Council meeting. Otherwise, the data highlights include UK retail sales and public finance data for May, Germany’s PPI reading for May, along with April data on the Euro Area current account balance and Canadian retail sales. From central banks, the Russian central bank will be deciding on rates, while the Fed’s Powell, Quarles, Mester and Rosengren will be speaking. CarMax is reporting earnings.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.6% to 3,128.75
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.5% to 365.27
  • MXAP up 0.2% to 159.33
  • MXAPJ up 0.5% to 513.91
  • Nikkei up 0.6% to 22,478.79
  • Topix down 0.02% to 1,582.80
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.7% to 24,643.89
  • Shanghai Composite up 1% to 2,967.63
  • Sensex up 1% to 34,546.83
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.1% to 5,942.60
  • Kospi up 0.4% to 2,141.32
  • German 10Y yield rose 0.3 bps to -0.404%
  • Euro up 0.1% to $1.1218
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 3.6 bps to 1.251%
  • Spanish 10Y yield unchanged at 0.516%
  • Brent futures up 2.9% to $42.72/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.4% to $1,729.41
  • U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 97.41

Top Overnight News

  • European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde and German Chancellor Angela Merkel warned European Union leaders meeting Friday by video conference that if they fail to agree on a stimulus package the consequences could be dire
  • China plans to accelerate purchases of American farm goods to comply with the phase one trade deal with the U.S. following talks in Hawaii this week
  • U.K. government debt rose above 100% of gross domestic product in May for the first time since 1963, reflecting a precipitous drop in economic output and a surge in spending to counter the fallout from the coronavirus pandemic.
  • Globally, companies are rushing to the bond market to raise more money than ever before.

Asian equity markets attempted to shrug-off Wall Street’s pre-quadruple witching indecision with a slightly upbeat tone seen in the region. ASX 200 (+0.1%) was higher with initial outperformance in Australia spearheaded by a surge in the consumer discretionary sector following a record jump in preliminary sales data, while advances in the Nikkei 225 (+0.5%) were limited by uninspiring currency moves and after early momentum was stalled by resistance around the 22550 level. Hang Seng (+0.7%) and Shanghai Comp. (+1.0%) were mixed amid the overall non-committal tone seen across global markets and as US-China frictions lingered with US President suggesting the US maintains the option of a complete decoupling from China and US Assistant Secretary of State Stilwell noted China’s attitude in Hawaii talks cannot be described as forthcoming and that the relationship between the sides is said to be tense overall, although the mainland indices remained afloat following the PBoC’s liquidity efforts in which it utilized both 7-day and 14-day reverse repos for a 2nd consecutive day. Finally, 10yr JGBs are flat with demand hampered as Japanese stocks remained afloat and amid the lack of BoJ presence in the market, although downside was also stemmed by a floor just above the 152.00 level.

Top Asian News

  • Liquor Maker Moutai Briefly Becomes China’s Biggest Stock
  • Yum China Is Said to File for $2 Billion Hong Kong Listing
  • Reliance Says It’s Net-Debt Free After $15 Billion Jio Deals
  • China’s $3.5 Trillion Wealth Product Market Suffers Losses

Stocks in Europe continue to gain ground on the final trading session of the week [Euro Stoxx 50 +1.3%] as the region mimic the positive APAC performance overnight – whilst sentiment was bolstered amid reports China will be accelerating its US ag purchases under the Phase One trade deal. As a reminder, today marks the Q2 quad witching (full schedule on the newsquawk headline feed), and thus the stock markets could see increased volume and volatility – with analysts at Goldman Sachs suggesting S&P 500 option expiries of almost USD 2bln in the pipeline. Back to Europe, major bourses see broad-based gains with UK’s FTSE (+1.2%) the marginal top performer on Sterling dynamics, having initially kicked the session off as a laggard. Sectors are in the green across the with clear outperformance in Energy amid as the sector benefits from the gains in the complex, whilst Material names see notable underperformance. The breakdown meanwhile provides little by way of a clear risk tone. In terms of individual movers, focus remains on Wirecard (-50%) as shares continue to erode having opened with losses deeper than 20% amid news Management Board Member Jan Marsalek has been suspended on a revocable basis, couple with reports of a rogue employee falsified documents which were related to Wirecard. Lufthansa (+1.2%) eased off best levels after pilot union VC stated the state aid package is needed for the Co’s survival, following reports that the aid envelop could be rolled back.

Top European News

  • Lagarde Warns EU Leaders of Market Risks if No Stimulus Deal
  • Investors Fear BOE Slowed Crisis Response Too Soon as Risks Loom
  • A $21 Billion Debt Program in Denmark Has Bankers Confused
  • Mask Maker GVS Surges in Milan Debut After $558 Million IPO

In FX, not quite the biggest G10 movers, but marginally divergent against the buoyant US Dollar as the DXY remains elevated near 97.500 after rebounding to a fresh mtd high on Thursday at 97.586. The Aussie is hovering just above 0.6870 in wake of a record rise in retail sales that almost reversed April’s steep decline and compensating for more angst between the nation and China amidst accusations over cyber-attacks. However, the Pound remains depressed despite UK consumption exceeding expectations in May, with Cable teetering on the 1.2400 handle and Eur/Gbp towards the upper end of a 0.9007-39 range as Government debt tops 100% of GDP for the first time since 1963.

  • CHF/EUR/CAD/JPY/NZD – All rangy vs the Greenback, as the Franc continues to straddle 0.9600, while the Euro has tentatively reclaimed 1.1200+ status and may derive underlying support ahead of yesterday’s 1.1186 low given decent 1.1200-1.1195 option expiry interest (1.2 bn) in the run up to the post-EC Recovery Fund videoconference press statement (for more on this see our primer on the headline feed at 8.20BST). Elsewhere, the Loonie is gleaning traction within 1.3615-1.3569 parameters from a firmer rebound in crude prices awaiting Canadian retail sales data and the Yen is still relatively restrained either side of 107.00 as it maintains a tight inverse correlation with the Buck on risk factors offset against JGB-UST yield differentials/curve dynamics. Back down under, the Kiwi is lagging in the low 0.6400 zone and facing Aud/Nzd headwinds on the aforementioned modest Aussie outperformance as the cross trades near top of a 1.0700-1.0656 band.
  • SCANDI/EM – Some support for the Nok, Rub and Mxn via the oil complex with WTI and Brent back over Usd 40 and approaching Usd 43/brl respectively, but the Rouble will be eyeing the CBR for rate guidance beyond the looming 100 bp cut anticipated and well telegraphed by the Governor before turning attention to May economic indicators at 11.30BST and 17.00BST respectively. Meanwhile, the Cnh is firmer and testing 7.0650 vs the Usd following reports that China has agreed to revert to Phase 1 trade deal compliant levels of US farm imports.

In commodities, WTI and Brent crude future continue marching higher in early European trade as the complex is buoyed by overall risk appetite following reports that China will be stepping up purchase of US farms goods, whilst the contracts are also supported after yesterday’s JMMC meeting where Iraq and Kazakhstan submitted their proposals to compensate for overproduction, although the committee have delayed the press conference to next week as Nigeria and Angola have not yet submitted their compliance proposals. That being said, Energy Intel stated that the mood at the JMMC wasn’t very positive according to delegates. News-flow has been light for the complex during European trade but traders will be eyeing further COVID-19, US-China or OPEC-related headlines. In the absence of that, the weekly Baker Hughes rig count rounds off the schedule. WTI July has reclaimed a USD 40/bbl handle (vs. low 38.75/bbl), whilst Brent August extended its footing over USD 42/bbl (vs. low 41.50/bbl) and currently eyes the next round number to the upside. Elsewhere, spot gold gained impetus early-doors as the DXY retreated in early trade, but the yellow metal has since waned off highs to stabilise around USD 1730/oz from a low of 1721/oz. Meanwhile, copper prices rise with the overall risk appetite and as copper front-month futures surpass the USD 2.6/lb mark to a current high of USD 2.6340/lb.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Current Account Balance, est. $102.9b deficit, prior $109.8b deficit

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

There’s been an element of Groundhog Day about this week with the same themes looping over like a stuck radio station. It’s clear that the virus is still spreading in some important areas but at the same time the market’s technicals continue to be strong, especially with all the liquidity around.

In terms of the pandemic, the main news continues to be the possible Covid-19 resurgence in the US. California and Florida both registered their largest one day rise yesterday with 3649 and 3207 respectively. The rise in California amounts to a 2.2% pickup, higher than the 7 day average of 2%, but the state continues to have better figures under the surface with hospitilisations only rising by 0.5%. The Florida case rise corresponds to a 3.9% increase, above the previous 7-day average of 3%. In a reversal of sorts, NY Governor Cuomo floated an idea of a quarantine for all travelers from Florida. NY residents have been asked to self-quarantine for 14 days when traveling to Florida since early in the pandemic. In Texas, the number of hospitalisations rose for a 7th straight day, up by a further 5%, while cases rose by 3.6%, well above the 7-day average of 3.0%.

Outside of the US, Germany reported 908 new cases (up 0.5%), the largest one day rise since 19 May, though it is unknown whether this is related to the meat plant that we mentioned yesterday. Highlighting just how low German case growth has been over the last month, only 2 days (including yesterday) in the last 30 have seen cases rise more than 700 in a day. Elsewhere, daily increases in LatAm and India have been mired in the 3-4% range for weeks now. Thankfully these countries have registered lower recorded deaths per million of the population even if data recording may not be as thorough in all places. See the “view report” button for the global/main US states case and fatality tables.

The data releases out yesterday didn’t provide much optimism either, with the weekly initial jobless claims from the US (one of the most up-to-date pieces of high-frequency data we have right now) declining to 1.508m in the week ending June 13, well above the 1.290m reading expected. Though this was the 11th week in a row that the numbers have fallen, the decline of just -58k from the previous week is the smallest since the numbers peaked back in late March, posing a concerning sign that progress in the labour market could be slowing. Meanwhile the number of continuing claims in the week ending June 6 were also higher than expected, falling to 20.544m (vs. 19.850m expected), with the insured unemployment rate remaining at 14.1%, thanks to the previous week’s numbers being revised down by three-tenths. Overall, it paints a picture of rather slower improvements in the labour market than many hoped for after the unexpectedly good jobs report for May.

Against this backdrop of lingering virus concerns and ambivalent data, global equities continued to tread water in low volume markets. The S&P 500 just barely rose on the day (+0.06%), while the STOXX 600 in Europe fell by -0.71%. Tech stocks held up well though, with the NASDAQ managing to eke out a +0.33% advance. For the second day in a row S&P volumes were well below average, yesterday was nearly 25% below the last month’s daily average. This drops comes as options and futures contracts are set to expire today, in what is colloquially known as the “quadruple witching”. Elsewhere, sovereign bonds rallied for the most part as investors looked for safe havens, with yields on 10yr Treasuries falling by -3.0bp, as bunds (-1.5bps), OATs (-2.7bps), and BTPs (-3.7bps) also advanced. Meanwhile the dollar strengthened +0.27% to a 2-week high.

Today, attention will turn to the European Council summit of EU leaders, which will be taking place via videoconference from this morning. One of the main items on the agenda is the EU recovery fund, while there’ll also be discussions on the bloc’s long-term budget for the next 7 years. In terms of what to expect, hopes of a breakthrough on the recovery fund have been managed downwards recently, and the signs are instead pointing to an agreement no sooner than an as-yet unscheduled summit meeting in July. And with unanimity between the member states required for an agreement, the question will be how the so-called ‘Frugal Four’ of Sweden, the Netherlands, Denmark and Austria (all of which ran budget surpluses going into the pandemic) can move on board with the proposals. In an FT article on Tuesday, their four PMs said that they “support the creation of a time-limited emergency recovery fund”, so the question is whether they’ll be on board with grants as opposed to loans to the different member states. A negative outcome would be if there were a bunch of red lines or if we saw signs of reduced commitment to a large fund as the economic indicators recover. A more positive outcome would be if there were flexibility between the various positions.

Overnight it’s been another fairly uneventful session in Asia with newsflow fairly light. The Nikkei (+0.46%), Shanghai Comp (+0.39%) and ASX (+0.75%) have all posted gains – the latter boosted by strong retail sales numbers – while the Hang Seng (-0.07%) and Kospi (-0.37%) are flat to slightly down. S&P 500 futures have posted modest gains, while bond markets have been muted. The only other data this morning came from Japan where the May CPI print came at +0.1% yoy (vs. +0.2% yoy expected), core CPI printed at -0.2% yoy (vs. -0.1% yoy expected) and core-core CPI printed in line with expectations at +0.4% yoy.

Back to yesterday and here in the UK, the main news was that the Bank of England decided to expand their QE programme by a further £100bn, in line with consensus expectations. However, in contrast to sovereign debt in the rest of Europe, gilts sold off in the aftermath, with 10yr yields up +3.8bps as there were a number of hawkish takeaways from the decision. For starters, the BoE said that since liquidity conditions had stabilised, “purchases could now be conducted at a slower pace than during the earlier period of dysfunction.” There also wasn’t a discussion of negative rates at the meeting, while the Chief Economist Andy Haldane dissented from the majority and voted to keep QE unchanged. Nevertheless, downside risks to the growth outlook remain, and looking forward our UK economists think more action from the BoE might be needed to ensure financial conditions remain easy and gilt yields stable, not least as the post-Brexit transition period concludes at the end of the year. As a result, their view is that the chance of further easing – via more QE in Q4 – remains high.

In terms of yesterday’s other data, the Philadelphia Fed’s business outlook survey surprised to the upside, with the general business activity indicator rising to 27.5 (vs. -21.4 expected). Meanwhile the Conference Board’s leading economic index rose +2.8% in May (vs. +2.4% expected).

Before we look at what today will bring, we’ve just released a new podcast from the latest edition of Konzept (link here). The title is Online Grocery – Fad or fate? Before the pandemic, online food ordering (both grocery delivery and meal kits) was already seeing steady growth, but since the outbreak, it’s taken off. While some people may revert back to their old habits when the pandemic recedes, many have been introduced to the concept and will continue to enjoy the benefits. You can listen to the podcast here, and can also subscribe to Podzept on Spotify, Google and Apple Podcasts.

To the day ahead now, and the main highlight will probably be the aforementioned European Council meeting. Otherwise, the data highlights include UK retail sales and public finance data for May, Germany’s PPI reading for May, along with April data on the Euro Area current account balance and Canadian retail sales. From central banks, the Russian central bank will be deciding on rates, while the Fed’s Powell, Quarles, Mester and Rosengren will be speaking.

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)FRIDAY MORNING/ THURSDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 28.32 POINTS OR 0.96%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 178.95 POINTS OR 0.73%   /The Nikkei closed UP 123.33 POINTS OR 0.55%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .16%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 7.0733 /Oil UP TO 40.03 dollars per barrel for WTI and 42.54 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 7.0733 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0669 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 C CHINA

CHINA//CENTRAL BANK/QE

Now China vows to QE by a whopping 30% of its  GDP/  Their problem:  will the world buy from them?

(zerohedge)

China’s Central Bank Vows To Expand Total Credit By 30% Of GDP In 2020

One of the curiosities about the current global financial crisis is that unlike the global financial crisis of 2008 when a massive credit injection by China sparked a generous reflationary wave around the world which pulled it out of a deflationary slump, this time around China has been far more modest as the following chart shows.

All that may be about to change.

Speaking in a financial forum in Shangha, China’s central bank governor Yi Gang said that China will keep liquidity ample in the second half of the year, but it should consider in advance the timely withdrawal of policy measures aimed at countering the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.

“The financial support during the epidemic response period is (being) phased, we should pay attention to the hangover of the policy,” Yi said. “We should consider the timely withdrawal of policy tools in advance.”

In other words, just like the Fed, China is pretending that whatever is coming will be temporary. Which, in a world of helicopter money will never again be the case.

But more importantly, we know that in order to boost its stagnating economy, China is about to unleash a historic credit injection: Yi said that new loans are likely to hit nearly 20 trillion yuan ($2.83 trillion) this year, up from a record 16.81 trillion yuan in 2019, and total social financing could increase by more than 30 trillion yuan ($4.2 trillion), or about 30% of GDP. A similar number for the US would be about $7 trillion which is more or less what the US deficit will be over the next 12 months.

In other words, we’re going to need a much bigger chart of China’s broad credit.

Yi added that the bank’s balance sheet remains stable around 36 trillion yuan.

While the PBOC has already rolled out a raft of easing steps since early February, including cuts in reserve requirements and lending rates and targeted lending support for virus-hit firms, it has yet to proceed with a major fiscal blast. Meanwhile, analysts expect the central bank to ease policy further to bolster economy.

An in an amusing tangent, Reuters reported that Guo Shuqing, chairman of the banking and insurance regulator, told the same forum that China will not monetize fiscal deficits – in other words launch full-blown quantitative easing – and will not adopt negative interest rates. We wonder how long this promise will be kept.

It takes time for global supply chains to recover, and economies around the world have to re-think how to exit from massive easing measures that were rolled out in response to the coronavirus pandemic, said Guo.

END
CHINA
Laughable! China pledges to increase purchases by a whopping 87%.  Not a chance!
(zerohedge)

As China Lags “Phase One” Pledges By 87%, It Plans To “Step Up” Imports

As part of the Phase One trade deal announced in January, and just weeks before the coronavirus pandemic crippled global trade, China had pledged to buy $36.5 billion worth of American agriculture products, up from $24 billion in 2017, prior to the trade war. Instead, China has so far purchased only $4.65 billion in the first four months of the year, data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture show. That’s only 13% of the goal set in the trade deal and almost 40% below the same period in 2017.

And so, long after it was confirmed that the “hard fought” trade deal was nothing but one big farce, overnight – perhaps in an attempt to spike algo buying of stocks – Bloomberg reported that China plans to accelerate purchases of American farm goods to comply with the phase one trade deal following talks in Hawaii this week.

The world’s top soybean importer intends to step up buying of everything from soybeans to corn and ethanol after purchases fell behind due to coronavirus disruptions, said two people familiar with the matter, who asked not to be named because the information is private.

A separate person said the Chinese government has asked state-owned agricultural buyers to make all efforts to meet the phase one agreement.

Naturally, Spoos – which were trading mostly unchanged until that point, Stoxx 50, soybeans and the yuan all spiked on the news.

Oddly enough, aside from the “two people familiar” nobody else confirmed the report, with China’s commerce ministry keeping silent. Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said “I don’t have any further information to provide right now” when asked about the purchase plans at a briefing in Beijing.

“During my meeting with CCP Politburo Member Yang Jiechi, he recommitted to completing and honoring all of the obligations of Phase 1 of the trade deal between our two countries,” Pompeo tweeted on Thursday.  As Bloomberg adds, Pompeo offered no details beyond the tweet, but that was the first substantive news out of the secretive meeting with Yang at Hickam Air Force Base in Hawaii on Wednesday. It’s still unclear how the meeting came about or who had asked for it. Both sides have said the other initiated it.

Bottom line: with elections just 5 months away, expect the Trump admin to throw anything and everything at the market to push it higher which, in his view, boosts his odds of reelection. Vice versa, this also means that anyone who does not want to see Trump reelection will be especially incentivized to crash market.

END
CHINA/USA
Beijing now sounds the alarm bell on the USA dollar’s reserve status.  The question is can they dump the dollar?
(Bloomberg/zerohedge)

Beijing Sounds Alarm About Dollar’s Reserve Status

As excerpted from Bloomberg macro commentator Ye Xie

Beijing Sounds Alarm About Demise of Mighty Dollar

With all the money printing and borrowing, is this the beginning of a long decline for the dollar?

Clearly this is on the minds of some senior Chinese officials. Guo Shuqing, chairman of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, delivered a strong warning on the U.S. currency this week.

 

Guo Shuqing

He made four points in a speech at the Lujiazhui Forum in Shanghai:

  • A. The Fed is the de facto central bank of the world. When its policy targets its own economy without considering the spillover effect, the Fed is “very likely to overdraft the credit of the dollar and the U.S.”
  • B. The pandemic may persist for a long period of time, and countries keep throwing money at the problem with a diminished impact. “It is recommended that you think twice and reserve some policy space for the future.”
  • C. There is no free lunch. Watch out for inflation.
  • D. Financial markets are disconnected from the real economy, and such distortions are “unprecedented.” It’s going to be “really painful,” when the policy withdrawal starts.

“Some people say: ‘Domestic debt is not debt, but external debt is debt. For the United States, even external debt is not debt. This seems to have been the case for quite some time in the past, but can it really last for a long time in the future?”

What will China do?

“China cherishes the conventional monetary and fiscal policies very much. We will not engage in flooding the system, nor will we engage in deficit monetization and negative interest rates.”

It’s not the first time China vented frustration against the “exorbitant privilege” of the dollar. After the financial crisis, then-PBOC Governor Zhou Xiaochuan proposed using the SDR to replace the dollar as the main reserve currency.

It went nowhere. But this time, China seems to be determined to enhance its reserve-currency status by avoiding unconventional policies. It won’t dislodge the dollar tomorrow, but its attractiveness is clear in the foreign flows to its bond market.

 END
CHINA/CANADA/MENG/HUAWEI
Oh OH! this is not good: China charges two innocent Canadians with espionage in retaliation to the Meng deportation to the USA to face charges over there
(zerohedge)

China Officially Charges Two Detained Canadians With Espionage

More than 18 months have passed since Michael Kovrig, a former Canadian diplomat working for an NGO on the mainland, and Michael Spavor, a Canadian businessman specializing in running novelty tours to North Korea, were abruptly arrested by police in China and informed they were under investigation (in China, police can take you into custody before the investigation even begins) for threatening China’s national security – an extremely serious charge.

Since then, the two men have been confined to Chinese prisons, denied contact with their families, and have had only minimal contact with Canadian diplomats. Their arrests were widely seen as retaliation for the arrest of Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou in Vancouver, which occurred just days before Kovrig, the first of three Canadians to be apprehended (one was later released) disappeared.

Since their arrest, Kovrig and Spavor have been held in solitary confinement and subjected sometimes brutal interrogations, according to people familiar with their cases. Before the pandemic, each man had been allowed visits with consular officials, but those were suspended months ago.

On Friday, the two men were formally indicted on espionage charges, suggesting that, if Canada doesn’t simply allow Meng to walk free, both may be facing lengthy prison terms in China. Or even the possibility of execution. Canada has denounced their arrests as arbitrary and accused Beijing of using these two men as political pawns in retaliation for the arrest of Meng, who is facing extradition to the US.

The case has deeply strained relations between the two countries, and this latest decision will likely cause relations between Beijing and Ottawa to deteriorate even further.

END
CHINA/CORONAVIRUS UPDATE

China Shares New Evidence Blaming ‘European Strain’ For Beijing Outbreak, Germany Sees Concerning Spike In COVID-19 Cases: Live Updates

Summary:

  • Global deaths top 450k
  • Cases top 8.5 million
  • Germany reports largest jump in cases in a month
  • UK lowers virus threat ranking
  • China releases genome showing Beijing outbreak caused by “European” strain
  • India reports another record jump in cases
  • Russia reports ~8k new cases
  • Singaporeans allowed to dine in restaurants for first time

* * *

We imagine China’s European trading partners were less-than-pleased earlier this week when the Chinese state-controlled press blamed a cluster of cases tied to southwestern Beijing’s Xinfadi wholesale market on imported European salmon. Hence why, amid the flood of other COVID-19 related headlines, Chinese health officials quickly gave Norwegian salmon imports the “all-clear”, before doing a complete 180 on the whole salmon narrative.

Was the salmon a false narrative planted to distract and deceive the Chinese people? One might even call it a red herring. That’s certainly possible. But salmon aside, China is clearly doubling down on the insinuation that Europe is somehow responsible for this latest cluster of cases. On Friday, China released genome sequencing data for the coronavirus responsible for a recent outbreak in Beijing, with officials claiming it had been identified as a European strain based on a “preliminary” study.

As Beijing lays the groundwork to blame every future recurrence of the coronavirus on a foreign source, Twitter and other American social media companies are showing surprisingly little interest in holding Communist Party officials accountable for spreading vicious lies, like conspiracies about the virus originating in the US, even as they continue to go after President Trump.

Meanwhile, new confirmed cases of coronavirus remained stable in China’s capital on Friday after a public health official declared Beijing’s latest outbreak under control yesterday, as we reported.

According to the official numbers, the city recorded just 25 new cases over the prior day, an increase o just four from Thursday’s total. Only 32 cases were confirmed countrywide.

“The epidemic in Beijing has been brought under control,” Wu Zunyou, thein chief epidemiologist of China’s Center for Disease Control and Prevention, said during yesterday’s press briefing. “When I say that it’s under control, that doesn’t mean the number of cases will turn zero tomorrow or the day after,” he cautioned. “The trend will persist for a period of time, but the number of cases will decrease, just like the trend that we saw (in Beijing) in January and February.”

In Europe, a group of the UK’s chief medical officers has finally conceded to lowering the UK’s coronavirus threat level one notch as the country’s virus curve has finally started to plateau.

To be sure, the UK had a pretty difficult time of it. The Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland has the third-highest death toll in the world, and has just eclipsed the 300k-case mark. As of Friday morning in the US (noontime in London), the UK had 301,935 confirmed cases, and 42,737 deaths, though reporting by the FT on excess deaths has shown that the total number is likely 10k-20k higher.

Because of this, the UK’s Joint Biosecurity Center recommended moving the COVID-19 risk in the country from the second-highest level, 4, which means transmission is high or rising exponentially, to level 3, which means the virus is in “general circulation” – hardly reassuring, but it’s progress nonetheless.

Singaporeans, meanwhile, will be allowed to wine and dine at restaurants, work out at the gym and get together in groups of no more than five people after most lockdown restrictions are lifted on Friday. The tiny city-state has managed to finally bring an outbreak spreading almost exclusively among migrant workers living in densely packed dorms under control, a major milestone for Southeast Asia, as Indonesia surpasses Singapore in the number of cases.

For an even bigger milestone, the global death toll topped 450,000, while the global case total topped 8.5 million (8,513,725 as of Friday morning in New York).

As Johnson tries to manage the reopening under an endless barrage of criticism, it appears the UK’s virus curve has finally plateaued.

India has recorded 13,586 newly confirmed cases today, raising its total to 380,532. Still, shops, malls, factories and places of worship have been allowed to reopen while schools and cinemas remain shuttered.

On the vaccine front, German biopharmaceutical company CureVac said Thursday that it had started its first clinical vaccine trial for its vaccine candidate. The trial is being conducted at the University of Tuebingen; it involves more than 100 test subjects aged between 18 and 60. The first trial results are expected in two months.

In other news out of Germany, the home of what was perhaps Europe’s best-managed major outbreak, public health officials with the Robert Koch Institute just reported the country’s highest daily jump in new virus cases in a month.

Meanwhile, in the US, despite another batch of record hospitalization numbers (out of Texas) and case numbers (in California, Florida and elsewhere), the number of states with rising 7-day averages has declined slightly to 20, according to the NY Times.

As the situation grows increasingly dire, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is extolling yoga as a way of building a “protective shield” of immunity against the coronavirus, as his nation battles a surge in infections.

end
CORONAVIRUS WHO REPORT:  THE GLOBE/

WHO: COVID-19 pandemic is ‘accelerating,’ in ‘new and dangerous phase’

June 19, 2020 at 1:48 p.m. ET

MarketWatch

The COVID-19 pandemic is “accelerating” and a record number of new cases in a single day were reported to the World Health Organization (WHO) on Thursday, WHO director- general Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesu said during a news conference on Friday. The WHO said there were more than 150,000 new cases of the coronavirus on Thursday, and about half of those cases came from the Americas. There have been more than 8.5 million cases in total, with nearly half a million deaths, since the virus first gained international attention in January. The U.S. has the most number of cases worldwide, with about 2.2 million cases and at least 118,000 deaths. Elsewhere in the Americas, Chile and Peru have both reported more than 230,000 cases at this time. “The world is in a new and dangerous phase,” Tedros said. “We call on all countries and all people to exercise extreme vigilance.”

-END-

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

GERMANY/WIRECARD CORP

The fraud at Wirecard escalates as the CEO quits as they are now searching for billions of dollars.  This is not going to end well!!

(zerohedge)

Wirecard Carnage Continues: CEO Quits As Search For Missing Billions Continues

Update (8:15ET): Wirecard confirms it’s in “constructive discussions” with its lending banks with regard to credit lines and business relationships, according to Bloomberg.

Bloomberg data shows at least 18 commercial banks are involved in Wirecard’s existing revolving credit facilities worth about $2.8 billion. 

Wirecard has warned if Ernst & Young (EY) doesn’t sign off on its 2019 accounts by Friday – loans up to $2.24 billion could be terminated. 

The payments company is skating on thin ice into the weekend as liquidity issues emerge.

*  *  *

Wirecard shares continued to plunge on Friday morning, falling at least 43% as the saga over the missing $2.1 billion from its accounts worried investors over the company’s future, reported Reuters.

Germany’s once high-flying payments firm could be forced to repay $2.24 billion in bank loans, if its auditor, Ernst & Young (EY), does not sign off Friday on its 2019 accounts due to the billions of dollars missing. Heading into the weekend – it’s likely EY will not sign off – thus triggering liquidity issues for the company.

EY had approved Wirecard’s accounts in recent years but refused to sign off for 2019 due to the missing money, which sent Wirecard shares plunging by more than 50% Thursday in Frankfurt trading.

In the last two days, Wirecard shares have plunged by more than 80%.

Now Wirecard’s chief executive Markus Braun has resigned, according to the payments firm on Friday morning, adding that James Freis had been appointed as interim CEO.

Before Braun’s exit, he said in an online video, “It cannot be ruled out that Wirecard AG has become the aggrieved party in a case of fraud of considerable proportions.”

BDO issued this statement: “Wirecard is not a client of the bank. The document claiming the existence of a Wirecard account with BDO is a falsified document and carries forged signatures of bank officers. ”

The epic unraveling in Wirecard’s shares and bonds puts an end to this homegrown Germany technology story after the Financial Times reported last year about accounting fraud.

At least 18 commercial banks have lending risks with Wirecard and have likely not isolated themselves.

END
ITALY
Italy is now in a mess:   It’s manufacturing sector is in trouble, its tourism is now faltering terribly and their debt to GDP has risen from 135% to 160%.  They must now leave the EU and revert back to the Lira
(Corbishley/WolfStreet)

Italy Once Again On The Eurozone Worry List

Authored by Nick Corbishley via WolfStreet.com,

Over half of Italian companies reported facing a liquidity shortfall by the end of 2020 and 38% reported “operational and sustainability risks,” according to a survey of 90,000 companies conducted by Italy’s national statistics institute ISTAT.

The national Italian business lobby, Confcommercio, recently estimated that 60% of restaurants and other businesses were short on liquidity and 30% had complained about the extra costs of implementing anti-contagion safety measures so they can start serving customers after lockdown.

The tourism industry, which accounts for 13% of GDP and has been crucial in keeping Italy’s economy afloat over the past decade, providing jobs for an estimated 4.2 million people, is in post-lockdown limbo. The borders have opened but foreign tourists still remain elusive. And with many local residents in no financial position to go on holiday this year, domestic demand is unlikely to pick up as much of the slack as tourism businesses are desperately hoping.

Tourism was one of the few parts of the economy that has been growing in recent years. Last year, for instance, it grew by 2.8% while Italy’s industrial output shrank by 2.4%. In an economy that hasn’t grown for well over 10 years while public debt continues to grow at a frightening rate, its fastest growing sector has just been hit with the mother of all sledgehammers.

Italy’s manufacturing industry, which was already struggling before the crisis, is also in trouble. In April, when Italy was in the grip of one of the most severe lockdowns in Europe, ISTAT’s industrial turnover index plunged by 46.9% while the unadjusted industrial new orders index fell by 49.0% with respect to the same month of the previous year. Since then, many businesses have reopened but activity remains low.

To weather the lull, many companies need credit. But this is easier said than done in Italy, unless you’re a multi-billion dollar company. Car giant Fiat Chrysler is on the verge of being granted a €6.3 billion state-backed loan — more than any other European carmaker. Even Atlantia, the firm that operated and maintained the Morandi Bridge in Genoa that collapsed in 2018, resulting in 43 fatalities, is hoping to hit up the government for a €1.7 billion loan.

Meanwhile, hundreds of thousands of small businesses continue to wait. In the early days of the crisis the Conti government said that debt guarantees would be made available to unlock up to €740 billion in funding for businesses. Yet by May 20, just 301,777 of 607,391 requests for assistance had been granted, according to a report by Italy’s bicameral investigative commission. (An accepted request doesn’t mean a loan has actually been dispensed).

For those companies that fall through the cracks of Italy’s emergency loan system, many of which were functioning perfectly well before the coronavirus crisis, the temptation is to go cap in hand to mafia-affiliated loan sharks, who are more than happy to help out. In Calabria the Ndrangheta “initially come in with offers of low interest rates, because their end goal is to take over the business, via usury, and use it to launder their illicit proceeds,” says Public Prosecutor Nicola Gratteri.

Even before this crisis began, Italy’s half-broken banking system and endless morass of red tape made getting a business bank loan an almost impossible task — apart from for the legions of zombie firms that already owed banks huge amounts of debt they will never repay and which would periodically get restructured. In the last crisis the share of the industry capital stock sunk in zombie firms more than doubled, from 7% to 19% between 2007 and 2013, according to the OECD. Something similar, but on an even larger scale, is likely to happen by the end of this crisis.

And that is the last thing that Italy’s economy and banking system need. Despite a massive clean-up effort in recent years, non-performing loans (NPLs) still account for 7% of Italy’s total loans, one of the highest ratios in Europe. That’s down from almost 17% five years ago, thanks to the mass securitization of Italian NPLs. Investors in these securitized NPLs expected to earn their return based largely on the proceeds from the sale of the underlying collateral.

The process of securitization depended on two basic conditions that are now in question:

1. investors’ willingness to invest in sliced and diced toxic debt a la Italiana; and

2. the ability of debt collectors to recover and sell the underlying assets.

The lockdown made condition 2 virtually impossible. Courts were closed. The Italian housing market, where the collateral for housing-related loans would have to be sold, was brought to a standstill. And debt collectors were unable to reach borrowers to negotiate even partial payments on unpaid loans.

Italy’s banking system will soon be engulfed by a new wave of non-performing loans as legions of companies, households, and individuals default on their debt during the post-lockdown era. When that happens and NPL ratios in Italy’s banking sector soar well into double figures again, just as the market for securitized Italian NPLs begins to crumble, Italy’s banking system will not only be back where it was circa 2015, it will be in an even worse place.

The Italian government is already in fiscal tightspot. By the end of this year its debt will already have surged to around 155%-160% of GDP, from last year’s 136% — the result of three simultaneous processes: massive growth in government spending to counter the virus crisis, a dizzying slump in tax revenues, and a sharp decline in GDP.

If Italy’s government is unable to deal with the approaching tsunami of bad debt, external help will soon be needed. Other Eurozone members will be in the same boat, which is why the ECB is quietly talking about creating a bad bank to “warehouse” hundreds of billions of euros of unpaid debt. Getting the blessing of some Northern European countries, particularly Germany, for the scheme will be a tough task, especially given the current standoff between the German Constitutional Court and the ECB. But for Italy’s economy, time is of the utmost essence.

*  *  *

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END

EU

EU car sales crash by 57%..they have a massive inventory glut.

(zerohedge)

EU Car Sales Crash 57% In May As Europe Grapples With Massive Inventory Glut

New car sales in the EU plunged in May, falling 57% to 623,812, as Europe grapples with the same problem that the U.S. has had for weeks: a glut of inventory, despite re-opening some factories and re-starting production in certain areas.

All 27 EU member states posted double digit declines in new car sales, with the U.K. falling an astounding 89%, according to MarketWatch.

Production coming out of the EU remains “well blow” pre-crisis levels but the lack of demand continues to contribute to a growing inventory problem. This, in turn, has created a slowdown in an industry that’s already moving at a crawl to begin with. Jobs and profits are both threatened from the glut, in addition to the monumental threat they both still continue to face from the ongoing global pandemic.

Unsold cars on dealer lots are “at least 30% above normal” according to industry analysts, while unsold inventory in Germany alone was about $17 billion worth. 

Antje Woltermann, managing director of the ZDK industry group: “Unsold stocks are climbing, and on the other hand vehicles are not leaving the lots.”

While Europe is struggling, many have looked to China, where sales were up 6% in May, for signs of optimism. For example, Stephan Wöllenstein, chief executive of Volkswagen Group China said: “The return of these kinds of figures is encouraging and gives us continued cautious optimism going forward.”

But those numbers don’t account for the recent second wave of lockdowns, including in Beijing, that China now faces.

Countries like France and Germany continues to try and spur sales with government incentives, but Germany is focusing primarily on EVs while the glut is in traditional ICE cars.

Recall, in May, we were ahead of the curve when we noted that European car registrations had plunged 76% in April. According to the European Automobile Manufacturers Association, the number of new cars sold fell from 1,143,046 to just 270,682 YOY in that month.

The ACEA said at the time: “The first full month with COVID-19 restrictions in place resulted in the strongest monthly drop in car demand since records began.”

It looks as though that trend has continued through May.

April’s numbers were worst than March, though May’s registration numbers seem to show that there could be some respite for sales when those numbers are released.

END
FRANCE//Dijon, France

France is becoming a disaster zone

From Robert to me:

In the French city of Dijon, Chechens and North Africans are fighting with assault rifles and other weapons. How the Chechen refugees get their arms is interesting. But this is the global rise in civil unrest I have warned about due to the unemployment caused by blanket shutdowns while certain parties try to remake the world In what is being championed das Reset. These elitist fools think they can shut down sports, close all gatherings for plays, movies, athletic clubs, and prohibit even vacationing in Europe without consequence. This will worsen through the fall As the lack of tourism bites.

They do not understand Mob rule when there is nothing to lose. It is how all revolutions start and the boys in the band lose complete control if not their heads.


Cheers

Robert
UK
(BBC)
UK debt to GDP now exceeds 100%

UK debt now larger than size of whole economy

BBC NewsThe UK’s debt is now worth more than its economy after the government borrowed a record amount in May.

The £55.2bn figure was nine times higher than in May last year and the highest since records began in 1993.

The borrowing splurge sent total government debt surging to £1.95trn, exceeding the size of the economy for the first time in more than 50 years.

Chancellor Rishi Sunak said the figures confirmed the severe impact the virus was having on public finances.

“The best way to restore our public finances to a more sustainable footing is to safely reopen our economy so people can return to work.

“We’ve set out our plan to do this in a gradual and safe fashion, including reopening high streets across the country this week, as we kickstart our economic recovery,” he added.

Income from tax, National Insurance and VAT all dived in May amid the coronavirus lockdown as spending on support measures soared.

This is the first time debt has been larger than the size of the economy since 1963, but it is not as high as the post-war peak of 258% in 1946-47.

-END-

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

TURKEY/FRANCE NATO/LIBYA

Turkey is continually involved in affairs totally against the wishes of NATO allies. Last week a French frigate engaged a Turkish vessel and was “engaged”

(a missile strike was impending).  Now NATO is probing this affair and this could blossom into a big war, especially if the Israelis are involved.

(zerohedge)

NATO To Probe French & Turkish Warships Near Clash Incident Off Libya

Perhaps predictably given Erdogan’s increased threats and foreign adventurism, cracks loom in the NATO alliance over Libya, leading to an official probe by Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg.

It started last week after France complained that Turkey is still breaking a UN arms embargo in effect on war-torn Libya. When a French frigate attempted to intercept a Turkish vessel suspected of running arms into Tripoli on June 10, it was reportedly “engaged” via radar, as if a missile strike was impending. The AP details, based on French defense sources:

According to a French defense official, the frigate Courbet was “lit up” three times by Turkish naval targeting radar when it tried to approach a Turkish civilian ship suspected of involvement in arms trafficking. The Courbet backed off after being targeted.

The French vessel was part of NATO’s naval operation in the Mediterranean, Sea Guardian, at the time of the June 10 incident.

 

The French frigate Courbet, via RFI.

Being “lit up” is is in reference to alleged Turkish radar targeting three times, suggesting an attack was imminent.

The civilian cargo ship suspected by the French navy of breaking the UN arms embargo was reportedly being escorted by no less than three Turkish warships.

“We have made sure that NATO military authorities are investigating the incident to bring full clarity into what happened,” Stoltenberg told reporters Thursday, announcing the official probe.

Starting last year Turkey very publicly ramped up military support to Tripoli’s UN-recognized government, which had long been under assault by Gen. Khalifa Haftar and his LNA forces. Haftar forces weeks ago pulled back, finally ending the offensive, which many analysts attributed to superior Turkish military hardware and assistance.

END
EGYPT/ETHIOPIA
Ethiopia is building a new dam on the Bile Nile in order to harness electricity for their needs but that might cut off water needed for Egypt.  This may bring about a war.
(AlMasdarNews)

Egypt & Ethiopia Are On Verge Of War Over Water As Nile Crisis Escalates

Via AlMasdarNews.com,

A new report in the major Russian online newspaper Vzglyad, details prospects for the inevitability of war between Egypt and Ethiopia, if not today, then in the future.

 

Via Reuters: “Ethiopia sees the dam as essential for its electrification and development, while Sudan and Egypt view it as a threat to essential water supplies.”

According to the Russian-language report, negotiations between Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia resumed on Sunday over a set of issues related to building a huge hydroelectric station on the Nile.

The Ethiopians are building on the Blue Nile, Africa’s largest hydroelectric power plant, surpassing the Sayano Shushenskaya Hydropower Station,”journalist Yevgeny Krotikov said, pointing out that Ethiopia would become the second largest generator of electricity in Africa.

And Bloomberg confirms that the Russia-sponsored talks have failed :

A last ditch attempt to resolve a decade-long dispute between Egypt and Ethiopia over a huge new hydropower dam on the Nile has failed, raising the stakes in what – for all the public focus on technical issues – is a tussle for control over the region’s most important water source.

The talks appear to have faltered over a recurring issue: Ethiopia’s refusal to accept a permanent, minimum volume of water that the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, or GERD, should release downstream in the event of severe drought.

 

Via CNN

The Blue Nile is the main artery that feeds the Grand Nile, and the construction of the dam will lead to severe decay in the valley waters, where up to 90% of the Egyptian population lives.

Last year, an open conflict (between Ethiopia and Egypt) was avoided at the Russia-Africa summit in Sochi.

The current exacerbation is due to the fact that the Ethiopians have started filling the dam reservoir and will do so in record time, with a duration of three years.

Al Jazeera English

@AJEnglish

Sudan says talks on Ethiopia’s Nile dam did not produce deal https://aje.io/rxxg8

View image on Twitter

“Now, it is incomprehensible that any compromise could take place. It was spent. Egypt is guilty of missing an opportunity. A warm congratulations can be sent to the ‘Arab Spring’ and Muslim Brotherhood,” Krotikov  argued.

“The next round of negotiations is likely to end with nothing. It is no longer possible to stop Ethiopia from its chosen path, with any international pressure. And Egypt, long ago, lacked the tools to exert such pressure on Addis Ababa. Things are moving towards war, and what can only be postponed for several years until the project works at full capacity, and its real consequences will appear on public life in Egypt.”

The report concluded: “After that, Cairo will have no choice but to try to solve the problem in a simple and severe manner.”

END

6.Global Issues

Bill Blain on his long list of worries…

Bill Blain

A Long List Of Worries…

Authored by Bill Blain via MorningPorridge.com,

“Of course you didn’t wake me, the phone was ringing anyway…”

It’s been a busy and confusing morning. Working from home apparently means no limits on when clients think it’s a good time to call. No complaints – it’s nice to hear all about the weather in Asia, but “I knew you’d be home” call at 4.30 am didn’t impress She-Who-Was-A-Sleeping-Mrs-Blain. Then my coalescing thoughts were then further interrupted by the arrival of manna from heaven in the shape of the Ocado Man!

As always I’ve been trying to sum up the current outlook and give some market insights in a couple of paragraphs. The left analytical side of my brain wants to list everything with clear strategies on addressing the looming crisis.

The right-hand creative side – well, it just wants to sum-up the outlook as “dangerous,” and get on with marketing a new property deal we’re working on as something far more interesting…. It makes sense: it’s a real deal, based on real assets, producing real returns in an asset class likely to appreciate. Its everything financial assets no longer are… worthwhile.. 

For what it’s worth, this is what is agitating me this morning:

  • Are global trade tensions set to rise on a “complete decoupling” with China? Or do we just ignore Trump from here on in as the polls predict a hammering in November. Will the Middle Kingdom really cave in and buy more soybeans from borderline-Trump voting US states? The shale-oil sector, the US economic “force-multiplier” is to all intents bust. What does it all mean for the dollar and the US position as global hegemon? 
  • Despite the virus and trade risks, IPOs are surging with unlikely sounding new companies seeing their new stock price double despite the underlying economic doom and gloom. The laws of financial gravity dictate….
  • Virus bubbles are not second-wave – that’s still to come, say the scientists. The current outbreaks are first-wave re-ignitions, and demonstrate the risks of flash-fire outbreaks after the main wave has passed, and distancing breaks down.
  • UBS are warning their High-New-Worth Clients to ignore frothy stock market bubbles and invest in fundamentals for the long-term.
  • Global markets are trading like there is no crisis – and that the last five months of crushed earnings won’t matter. Bridgewater’s Ray Dalio is predicting a “lost decade for stocks.”
  • The global economy will remain hamstrung unless we get a vaccine.
  • Expression of the month is “Corporate Resilience”.
  • The implications and consequences of unlimited bailouts and QE Infinity have massively distorted market pricing, and despite recession, inflation fears are rising round the globe as a result of unconstrained monetary expansion. Stocks and Bond are over-priced and returns have tumbled.
  • Bailouts, rescues and QE infinity unfairly favour the larger corporates able to access bond markets and attract govt money on the back of the scale and job creation metrics. The smaller SMEs that subcontract for them get less support and struggle – making SMEs weaker while larger firms get greater dominance in contract negotiations. Its another example of growing inequality.
  • German Fintech darling Wirecard crashes 75% after it loses $19 bln held by Asian banks – who are mumbleswerving about fraud – and the CEO is suspended.
  • UK Government debt tops 100% of GDP, and the Bank of England downscales its estimates to a 20% GDP tumble based on better than expected consumption, even as downside risks are screaming higher from aerospace, tourism and hospitality sectors, and unemployment starts to soar higher as companies adjust to long-term slowdown.
  • Corporate debt has doubled, or tripled according to some measures, since last crisis. Much of it has not been spent on productivity gains, but on stock buybacks. And nobody else seems to think that’s a problem.
  • Hopeful (and bust) European nations will fall behind France and Germany to approve essentially unlimited cash bailouts from the rich EU to poor nations, but as any one member can block it, the frugal 4/5 may yet slow the process – perhaps taking months. Some kind of compromise will be hailed as a breakthrough – and kick the problem further down the road.
  • European banks got another €550 bln of TLTRO money – they actually have some €1.3 trillion of effectively free money from the ECB. All that free money and the European economy still flatlining…? It suggests there is something seriously wrong with the TLTRO transmission mechanism, or European banks are hoarding the cash… and gaming QE.

There is a very sad picture in the papers this morning of bits for the very last A380 Superjumbo being trundled to the factory in Toulouse. (I have doubts where most A380s will ever fly again after this crisis – and suspect the last one will have a very short service career.)

end

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings FRIDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1223 UP .0018 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS//CORONAVIRUS/PANDEMIC /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /ALL GREEN

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 106.77 DOWN 0.232 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2392   DOWN   0.0033  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/

 

USA/CAN 1.3560 DOWN .0030 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  FRIDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE BY 18 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.1223 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 28.32 POINTS OR 0.96% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 178.95 POINTS OR 0.73%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0,16%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 178.95 POINTS OR 0.73%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 28.32 POINTS OR 0.96%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.16% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 123.33  POINTS OR 0.55%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1734.60

silver:$17.61-

Early FRIDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 0.73% !!! UP 2 IN POINTS from THURSDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 1.51 UP 3  IN BASIS POINTS from THURSDAY night.

USA dollar index early FRIDAY morning: 97.33 DOWN 9 CENT(S) from  THURSDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers FRIDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing  FRIDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.51% UP 2 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.01%  UP 1   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.49%//DOWN 2 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:1,36 DOWN 2 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 87 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.45% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.81% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR FRIDAY

Closing currency crosses for FRIDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1188  DOWN     .0019 or 19 basis points

USA/Japan: 106.87 DOWN .136 OR YEN UP 13  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2356 DOWN .0068 POUND DOWN 68  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 7 basis points to 1.3599

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 7.0723    ON SHORE  (UP)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  7.0771  (YUAN DOWN)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  6.8518 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +.01%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 1 IN basis points from THURSDAY at 0.70 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 1.48 DOWN 1 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 97.60 UP 18  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for FRIDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 68.53  1.10%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN UP 49.23 POINTS OR .40%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 20.70 POINTS 0.42%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 24.00 POINTS or 0.32%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 133.17 POINTS OR 0.68%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 39.73 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 42.03 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE RISES:    69.58  THE CROSS LOWER BY 0.30 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE HIGHER BY 30 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.45 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  39.57//

 

 

BRENT :  41.81

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: …  0.69  down…2 basis points…

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 1.46..down 3 basis points..

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.1177 ( UP 31   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:106.83 DOWN .167 (YEN UP 17 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 97.64 UP 22 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.2353 DOWN 71  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 6/8482

 

 

the Russian rouble 69.51   UP 0.39 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( UP 39 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3608 DOWN 15 BASIS pts

 

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.45%

 

The Dow closed DOWN 208.64 POINTS OR 0.80%

 

NASDAQ closed UP 3.07 POINTS OR 0.03%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  35.12 CLOSED UP 2.18

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 0.306%//libor dropping like a stone

LIBOR/OIS: .230%

TED SPREAD (3 MONTH TREASURY VS LIBOR) = .149%

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

COVID Concerns, Crude Collapse, & Quad-Witch Craziness Spark Stock Swoon

Well that was a week of worrisome headlines (from World War 3 to global COVID reawakenings), awe-inspiring US macro-economic beats (which lose all context in relation to the collapse) as earnings outlooks remain just “off the lows”, and a stock market that refuses to go down despite bonds, the dollar, and commodities all signaling anything but strong growth ahead…

Given the mean-reverting nature of the US macro surprise index (3 standard deviations above the mean), this could be as good as it gets…

Source: Bloomberg

Leaving the gap between macro and micro at its greatest ever…

Source: Bloomberg

All hell broke loose this morning as the June S&P futures contract expired…

The market started lower the moment the June contract expired, but there were a number of triggering headlines for the legs lower…

  • 1055ET *FLORIDA COVID CASES +4.4% VS. PREVIOUS 7-DAY AVG. 3.2%
  • 1125ET *ARIZONA REPORTS A RECORD 3,246 NEW VIRUS CASES: ABC-15
  • 1215ET *APPLE TO CLOSE SOME U.S. STORES AGAIN DUE TO COVID-19 SPIKES
  • 1302ET *Fed’s Quarles Says Market Reaction to Covid-19 Is Not Over
  • 1345ET *CRUISE LINES SUSPEND TRIPS OUT OF US PORTS TIL SEPT. 15: CNBC
  • 1405ET *CALIFORNIA RECORDS LARGEST SINGLE-DAY INCREASE OF COVID CASES

On the week, all the US majors were higher with Nasdaq leading and The Dow lagging…

On the day only Nasdaq managed to close green…

With the late-day panic…

Nasdaq is up 6 days in a row and up 17 of the last 20 days…

The Nasdaq Biotech index spiked 3.5% today to new record high…

The Virus Fear Trade picked up again this week…

Source: Bloomberg

Banks started the weak with a panic-bid off opening weakness but that faded as the week progressed and yields slid…

Source: Bloomberg

Crude prices crashed intraday, accelerating on heavy volume at 1230ET (After AZ,FL case counts) before bouncing back dramatically (as USO tumbled into red)…

 

Treasury yields fell today to end the week unch…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar ended the week higher (up 6 of the last 7 days and 2nd up-week in a row)

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin ended the week lower but apart from Monday’s dump and pump, traded in a narrow range…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold surged today, back above $1750…

 

Silver rallied but failed to hold $18…

 

And finally, don’t forget, The Fed’s balance sheet shrank the most since 2009 this week…

Source: Bloomberg

Either TSY yields are dramatically too low or Dr.Copper is way over his recovery skis relative to gold…

Source: Bloomberg

Is volatility about the be resurrected?

And here’s a little context…

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

This is interesting; the Fed’s balance sheet dropped 88 billion dollars due to drop in repos and 92 billion dollars due to swap reductions.  The Fed is still buying massive quanties of bonds and bonds through their QE. However the Fed will need to invent a new crisis in order for them to buy stuff to keep asset prices up

(zerohedge)

Fed’s Balance Sheet Posts Biggest Weekly Drop In 11 Years

After three months of record gains, which saw an increase of $3 trillion to $7.2 trillion, the Fed’s balance sheet has finally posted its first weekly decline since the start of the corona crisis according to the latest H.4.1 statement.

This was not only the first shrinkage in the Fed’s balance sheet since the week ended February 26, but also the biggest drop since May of 2009.

The drop, however, was not due to a reversal or even slowdown in QE which continues almost every single day, with the Fed adding over $100 billion in Treasurys and MBS, but due to an $88 billion decline in outstanding repos to $79 billion for the week ended Jun 17, 2020, as well as a $92 billion decline in liquidity swaps to $352 billion.

With the S&P500 closely tracking the Fed’s balance sheet in the past three months, which has served as the primary factor behind the rebound in the market, the latest weekly drop coincides with the period of heightened volatility in the past two weeks.

The shrinkage comes at a time when the Fed’s monthly liquidity injection has been tapered to approximately $120 billion, which suggests that while the balance sheet is likely to resume growing in the next week, it will be at a more gradual pace.

It also means that for the stock market to surge from this point on, Powell will need to find another justification to expand the Fed’s QE aggressively.

Finally, those keeping track of how much corporate bonds the Fed has bought, the latest total for the Fed’s Corporate Credit Facilities LLC which includes purchases of both ETFs and corporate bonds, the Fed disclosed that as of June 17, there was $6.6 billion in book value of holdings (the Fed does not break out how many actual bonds it has bought vs ETFs).

Having started corporate bond ETF purchases on May 12, this means that the Fed has bought on average roughly $1.1 billion per week, a pace which has been more than sufficient to result in record fund inflows into various investment grade and junk bond ETFs.

END
Bolton is nothing but a neocon. Pompeo accuses Bolton of being a “traitor’ and spreading outright falsehoods
(zerohedge)

“I Was In The Room Too” – Pompeo Accuses “Traitor” Bolton Of Spreading “Outright Falsehoods”

After maintaining a foreboding silence for roughly a day, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, a top Trump Administration official who was of course present for many of the episodes described by former NSA John Bolton in the salaciously leaked details from his book, which the White House is struggling to suppress on grounds it contains classified information.

In a statement entitled “I Was In The Room Too,” Pompeo slammed Bolton as a “traitor” who is spreading “fully-spun” lies. He also claimed Bolton “violated his sacred trust with [America’s] people”.

“I’ve not read the book, but from the excerpts I’ve seen published, John Bolton is spreading a number of lies, fully-spun half-truths, and outright falsehoods. It is both sad and dangerous that John Bolton’s final public role is that of a traitor who damaged America by violating his sacred trust with its people. To our friends around the world: you know President Trump’s America is a force for good in the world.”

President Trump’s twitter feed has been a non-stop stream of insults and quoted insults slamming the infamous neo-con and Bush-era relic whom President Trump brought in after pushing out HR McMaster, who stepped into the job during the first chaotic weeks of the Trump administration, as the White House was reeling from its first major scandal, the firing of Michael Flynn.

END

What Spike? Hospitalization Data Show No Indication Of A Second Wave

Authored by Stephen Miller via The American Institute for Economic Research,

Are we on the verge of a second wave of coronavirus infections? Is there a spike in infections in states that reopened first?

The only way to answer that question is to watch as the data roll in. Arguably the best data to look at to see if a second wave is beginning are the hospitalization numbers. The media frequently reports the biggest and most dramatic numbers, often devoid of context. The number of cases has been reported regularly since the early days of the pandemic, and yet we know that the number of cases can be misleading.

As more people are tested and re-tested for the virus, more results will come back positive, with the current number of confirmed cases exceeding 2 million in the U.S. But if we know anything, it is that increases in the number of confirmed cases do not accurately convey how quickly and widely the virus is spreading. Antibody tests and even the examination of sewage in some cities suggest that the number of infections is likely much higher than the number of confirmed cases.

But on the other side, some of the confirmed cases are double-counted in some states partly because both antibody and active virus tests are being counted separately but then combined in the total number of cases. While the antibody tests have been criticized for their false positive rate, another criticism has been that the antibody studies can underreport infection rates because they are not sensitive enough to detect a past mild infection.

Overall, because the bulk of testing is focused on people who are the sickest and who face the greatest exposure, it seems reasonable to conclude that the true number of U.S. infections is substantially higher than the reported figure. But an attempt to estimate the true number of infections would be little better than a guess.

And this presents a problem with the daily updates. To say that a particular state or city is seeing a “spike” in cases is to say that recently they have had an uptick in positive test results. That could be due to more testing and more ways of testing, or it could be a hint of growth in the infection rate.

Better Data are Available

Rather than focus on test results, i.e. “cases,” it would make more sense to focus on how the virus affects society and our institutions, particularly the strain the virus puts on health care facilities and health care providers. An obvious measure, tracked since the beginning of the pandemic, is the number of deaths. As I and others at AIER have noted, the number of deaths is hard to interpret without important context.

The coronavirus is obviously deadly, but how deadly it is seems to depend greatly on how it enters a population and the characteristics of that population. The virus has been far deadlier in New York than it has been in California, and has been most deadly in U.S. long-term care facilities. Among children, the coronavirus is considerably less deadly than seasonal influenza.

Nonetheless, deaths tell us something important about the virus’s impact on society. They profoundly affect entire social networks and are rightly emphasized in pandemic reporting.

When it comes to seeing how things are going now, whether the pandemic is growing worse or fading, deaths are a lagging indicator. They do not begin to spike until infections have already been accelerating rapidly for many days, and they do not decline until well after the virus’s spread has slowed.

The chart below shows that overall, deaths are clearly declining, although there is a weekly cycle where Sundays seem to result in relatively low death counts and Tuesdays and Wednesdays usually have the highest reported numbers. Overall, the past two weeks have had lower death totals than have been seen in the two months prior. But if a second wave were coming soon, we would not see the deaths from it yet.

Here is another look from the Washington Post.

The number can only go up as more hospitalizations are added to the total. From that number, the daily number of hospitalizations can be plotted; however that number is very noisy because the numbers are submitted at the state level in a variety of ways and do not seem to reflect the true numbers per day.

In other words, the hospitalization numbers seem to come in in clumps. They can be reported as weekly totals or weekly averages, as well. But a weakness of the cumulative data is that they do not tell us much about the burden on hospitals and health care workers. The total number of coronavirus hospitalizations increased dramatically, from zero to nearly 60,000 in a month nationally, and stayed high for weeks afterward. The chart below shows that the decrease in hospitalization has been fairly steady, and overall there is far less strain on the health care system than there was in mid-April.

The northeastern U.S. was hit hardest, but most states are either seeing declining or flat trends in hospitalizations, with a few notable exceptions such as North Carolina, Texas, and Arizona. But in those states the number of hospitalizations is still relatively low, a fraction of the totals that New York and New Jersey were seeing in April. Claims that Alabama, Georgia, and Florida are emerging “hotspots” are not supported by the hospitalization numbers despite media reports to the contrary.

There are some parts of the country still in the midst of the first wave of coronavirus infections, states that had very low numbers of hospitalizations and deaths in April, but are now beginning to see the virus spread more quickly. But those states are unlikely to see the kind of spread Northeastern states did, and there is hope the virus can be far less deadly going forward if policies can be implemented to better-protect the elderly and vulnerable, especially those living in long-term care facilities.

 end
Wow!! this could be dangerous:  NYPD are being encouraged to strike on July 4 in response to anti police sentiment
(zerohedge)

NYPD Are Being Encouraged To Strike On July 4 In Response To City’s Anti-Police Sentiment

There is a labor strike brewing at the New York Police Department, where officers are reportedly being encouraged to call out sick on July 4th in order to give the city its “independence”. 

The move comes after weeks of police officers around the United States facing unprecedented backlash as a result of the death of George Floyd. So far, officers in Buffalo and Atlanta have both been reported to have resigned and/or called out en masse and now it looks like the New York Police Department could be next.

Flyers are being passed around that suggest the strike in response to proposed police reform and an “anti-cop” climate that many officers believe make it more difficult to do their jobs. 

A text message that is going around between NYPD officers says “NYPD cops will strike on July 4th to let the city have their independence without cops,” according to the NY Post.

“Cops that say we can’t strike because of the Taylor Law, the people and this city doesn’t [sic] honor us why honor them [sic],” the message reads. The origin of the messages are unclear.

“Police officers like you and me took an oath to protect strangers regardless of race, class or gender. Today we are vilified and must stand as one,” it continues.

Another such message uses the hashtag #Bluflu and tells officers to call out sick July 4. It says if they are denied the sick day by their precinct, to call the main NYPD sick desk or to ask for an ambulance.

“If you are held because of the #Bluflu, request a bus and go sick from command,” the message says.

PBA President Patrick Lynch said: “The situation we are in right now is no joke. NYC cops have reached the breaking point. Over the past few weeks, we have been attacked in the streets, demonized in the media and denigrated by practically every politician in this city. Now we are facing the possibility of being arrested any time we go out to do our job.”

end
My goodness!! no oversight
(zerohedge)

Trillions In Stimulus Cash Has Been Distributed With “Barely Functional” Oversight

Today in “the government is an awful capital allocator” news, trillions of dollars in stimulus money has apparently been doled out with little to no oversight. At the same time, politicians on both sides of the aisle are scrambling to establish order in the form of various oversight panels and inspectors general, according to Bloomberg.

In fact, it was found that some of the oversight bodies responsible for tracking the money are “barely functional”. This comes after $2 trillion in stimulus cash has been doled out. Many, including Peter Schiff, predicted months ago that printing and distributing such a vast amount of money would inevitably lead to fraud and misuse due to the government’s inability to track the money.

Now that’s exactly what’s taking place. Meanwhile, a special inspector general, Brian Miller, has only been sworn in recently and is already facing questions from Democrats about his ability to be independent.

Senator Elizabeth Warren noted that funds are already going to the wrong place: “We’ve seen giant public companies scoop up relief meant for small businesses, an inspector general fired, promises made to muzzle independent oversight.” 

Sherrod Brown of Ohio called Miller “evasive” and “unwilling to condemn” Trump for removing other agency inspectors general ahead of the stimulus being sent out.

Miller is tasked with trying to prove to both sides of the aisle that he can be independent, fair and a person of consequence when he releases his first report, which is due in August.

Neil Barofsky, the first special inspector general who oversaw TARP, said: “Your first report is to amplify what you’ve found. That really defined what we would be. There is always going to be tension between a good IG and the agency.”

But some business leaders are worried that the “oversight” is going to turn into a political sideshow (as everything tends to do). Neil Bradley, chief policy officer at the Chamber of Commerce said: “There’s already growing concern that congressional oversight will in part focus on companies or sectors that various elected officials will view as unworthy of assistance, irrespective of whether they qualify under the terms of the programs in question.”

At the same time, Nancy Pelosi and Mitch McConnell have been unable to agree on a chairman for the Congressional Oversight Commission, which is designed to be a bi-partisan entity. The commission has produced one report so far and has another due on Wednesday.

A similar panel in 2008 took months to assemble. Kenneth Troske, a member of the panel led by Warren before she became a senator said: “There is no such thing as nonpartisan. It’s an inherent challenge of that type of work.”

Another panel, the Pandemic Response Accountability Committee, saw its head Glenn Fine ousted by Trump in April. It was the first of five dismissals of inspectors general that Trump made.

Cynthia Schnedar, who has served as deputy inspector general and acting inspector general at the Justice Department said: “I don’t think the firings are going to scare most IGs. They will do their jobs, but he can pick them off one by one.”

The panel reported last Wednesday that there was “grant fraud” that included the Paycheck Protection Program loans.

“Increased loan volume, loan amounts, and expedited loan processing time frames may make it more difficult for SBA to identify red flags in loan applications,” the report said.

We’d make a joke about this being your tax dollars at work, but tax revenue no longer matters. This is the Fed’s money printing funding big government at work. And as we can see, two wrongs don’t make a right.

end
Unbelievable:  Stepmother of Atlanta cop charged with murder has been fired for :creating an uncomforable workplace”
I have no seen about everything
(Stieber/EpochTimes)

Mother Of Atlanta Cop Charged With Murder Fired For “Creating An Uncomfortable Workplace”

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

The stepmother of an Atlanta police officer who was charged with murder this week was fired from her job.

Melissa Rolfe worked for Equity Prime Mortgage as human resource director.

The company said in a statement that “it is imperative to maintain a safe environment for all employees.”

“Melissa Rolfe’s termination was a direct result of her actions in the workplace and violation of company policy,” Equity added. “While working with Melissa as she transitioned to a leave of absence granted by our organization, we discovered she violated company policy and created an uncomfortable working environment for many of our employees.”

Rolfe “ultimately lost the confidence of her peers, leadership, and many employees who no longer felt comfortable engaging with her,” the company continued. When employees’ views “create a hostile working environment,” they can be fired, it said.

Melissa Rolfe pictured on Equity Prime Mortgage’s website. Her profile was removed. (Screenshot/Equity Prime Mortgage)

Equity confirmed the firing following a report from Fox News’ Tucker Carlson.

On his show Thursday night, Carlson cited a source and said Rolfe was fired.

“Apparently, she was fired and her only crime was being Officer Rolfe’s stepmother,” he said.

Rolfe was told previously that her job was safe, according to the source.

Equity earlier Thursday released a lengthy statement saying the company is guided by the principle: “Do the right thing, always.”

“Our unwavering commitment to always doing the right thing has led us to sever ties with an employee who has expressed views that do not align with our culture,” it said, adding it doesn’t tolerate “racism, discrimination, or injustices of any kind.”

This screen grab taken from body camera video provided by the Atlanta Police Department shows Rayshard Brooks speaking with Officer Garrett Rolfe in the parking lot of a Wendy’s restaurant, in Atlanta, Ga., late on June 12, 2020. (Atlanta Police Department via AP)

Police Officer

Garrett Rolfe, an Atlanta officer, was with another cop on June 12 responding to a call of a man sleeping in a car in a Wendy’s drive-through.

After testing the man for sobriety for about 40 minutes, an altercation broke out when the man, Rayshard Brooks, resisted arrest.

The officer fired his gun, hitting Brooks twice. The shots proved fatal.

Rolfe was fired. Fulton County District Attorney Paul Howard charged Rolfe with felony murder, which can be punished by the death penalty, on Wednesday.

Rolfe’s lawyer said he shouldn’t have been charged, arguing his client heard a sound he thought was a gunshot just before he fired his gun.

“Fearing for his safety, and the safety of the civilians around him, Officer Rolfe dropped his Taser and fired his service weapon at the only portion of Mr. Brooks that presented to him—Mr. Brooks’s back,” his lawyer said in a statement.

Rolfe stopped firing when Brooks fell to the ground. He then called emergency medical services and started CPR when Brooks’s pulse stopped.

Rolfe and Devin Brosnan, the other officer involved in the situation, both turned themselves in on Thursday. Brosnan was allowed to post bond. Rolfe was being held without bond.

end
Well it looks like we will not get to see major league baseball this season.  The big COVID 19 outbreak at the Phillies training camp in Clearwater: 5 players and 3 staff sickened.
(zerohedge)

COVID-19 Outbreak At Phillies Clearwater Training Camp Sickens 5 Players, 3 Staff

In the middle of a bitter labor dispute that is already threatening to scrap the 2020 season entirely (such an unfortunate outcome, according to MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred, now appears virtually inevitable), several Phillies players have reportedly tested positive for COVID-19.

As Florida experiences a major outbreak that is threatening to make the state into one of the new hotspots, alongside Texas and Arizona, five Phillies players who had been training at the team’s facility in Clearwater, Florida have tested positive for coronavirus in recent days, according to NBC Sports Philadelphia.

In addition to the five players, three staff members have tested positive, though the identities of those infected aren’t known.

None of the eight people who have been infected have been hospitalized; all apparently have pretty mild infections.

The Phillies closed their Spectrum Field facility in mid-March when the sporting world shut down because of the COVID-19 crisis. At the time, the facility was thoroughly cleaned.

“I’m not trying to scare anyone, but this is real and it spreads quickly and easily and people need to know,” said one person who knows some of the Phillies personnel who has tested positive.

Americans Skip Millions of Loan Payments as Coronavirus Takes Economic Toll

(Wall Street Journal)

Americans have skipped payments on more than 100 million student loans, auto loans and other forms of debt since the coronavirus hit the U.S., the latest sign of the toll the pandemic is taking on people’s finances.

The number of accounts that enrolled in deferment, forbearance or some other type of relief since March 1 and remain in such a state rose to 106 million at the end of May, triple the number at the end of April, according to credit-reporting firm TransUnion. TRU -0.39%

The largest increase occurred for student loans, with 79 million accounts in deferment or other relief status, up from 18 million a month earlier. Auto loans in some type of deferment doubled to 7.3 million accounts. Personal loans in deferment doubled to 1.3 million accounts.

The surge in missed payments suggests that the flood of layoffs related to the coronavirus has left many Americans without the means to keep up with their debts. Many people have used up their stimulus checks, and unemployment benefits in high-cost areas aren’t enough to replace paychecks or to help debt-laden borrowers pay down their bills.

In some cases, the government is instructing companies to let borrowers defer their loans. The stimulus package signed into law in March, for example, allowed most borrowers to stop making monthly payments through Sept. 30 on federal student loans.The stimulus package also allowed homeowners hurt by the coronavirus or its economic fallout to ask their mortgage servicers for permission to pause their payments for up to 12 months. If the mortgage is backed by the government, the mortgage servicer is generally supposed to grant the request.

In other types of lending, consumers are actively seeking help. Many credit-card, auto-loan and personal- loan lenders continue to allow consumers to skip or pause payments, in hopes of buying time for the economy to recover and for consumers to get back on track with their payments.

Capital One Financial Corp., COF -2.08% for example, has been working with customers who say they can’t pay their bills. The bank said earlier this month that about 2% of active card accounts were in forbearance at the end of May, up from 1% as of mid-April. Some 13% of its auto- loan accounts were in forbearance, up from 9%.

But lenders will shoulder the unpaid loans for only so long, and many are expecting delinquencies to soar later this year as the recession drags on.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/americans-skip-millions- of-loan-payments-as-
coronavirus-takes-economic-toll- 11592472601

-END-

Looks like the Cruise Line industry is toast;

(zerohedge)

Major Cruise Lines ‘Voluntarily Suspend’ Trips Out Of US Ports Until Sept. 15

Cruise Lines International Association (CLIA) announced Friday afternoon that major cruise lines would voluntarily extend the suspension of cruise operations from U.S. ports until September 15.

“Due to the ongoing situation within the U.S. related to COVID-19CLIA member cruise lines have decided to voluntarily extend the period of suspended passenger operations.  The current No Sail Order issued by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) will expire on July 24, and although we had hoped that cruise activity could resume as soon as possible after that date, it is increasingly clear that more time will be needed to resolve barriers to resumption in the United States.

“Although we are confident that future cruises will be healthy and safe, and will fully reflect the latest protective measures, we also feel that it is appropriate to err on the side of caution to help ensure the best interests of our passengers and crewmembers.  We have therefore decided to further extend our suspension of operations from U.S. ports until September 15.  The additional time will also allow us to consult with the CDC on measures that will be appropriate for the eventual resumption of cruise operations. 

“This voluntary suspension applies to all CLIA members to which the No Sail Order applied (vessels with capacity to carry 250 persons or more). CLIA member cruise lines will continually evaluate the evolving situation and make a determination as to whether a further extension is necessary.” – CLIA statement. 

Carnival Corp., Disney Cruise Line, Holland America Line, Princess Cruises, Royal Caribbean International, and Silversea Cruises are some of the CLIA members that had previously announced a pause of operations in early March. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) extended no sails on April 9 until July 24. Now it appears an extension will last through mid-September.

Shares of Carnival Corp., Royal Caribbean, and Norwegian Cruise Line are all down about 5% in the final hour of the U.S. cash session on Friday.

Barstool Sports founder Dave Portnoy, the biggest travel stock bull on Twitter, has been advocating the dip should be bought in these stocks – we wonder if the latest CLIA announcement will change his investment advice to his followers?

Dave Portnoy@stoolpresidente

Looks like planes and cruise ships are poised for take off again.

Embedded video

END

iv) Swamp commentaries)

 

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

Bank of England slows bond purchases as it sees some recovery signs

The BoE bolstered its firepower by a further 100 billion pounds ($124 billion) — as predicted by most economists — but surprised financial markets by saying it expected the increase to see it through to the end of the year… https://business.financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/bank-of-england-slows-bond-purchases-as-it-sees-some-recovery-signs

Though the consensus forecast called for the BoE to increase its debt monetization scheme by £100B, some pundits expected the bank to boost its bond purchases by £200B.

US Initial Jobless Claims: 1.508m, 1.29m expected, previous week revised to 1.566m from 1.543m

Continuing Claims: 20.544m, 19.854m expected, previous week revised to 20.606m from 20.929m

The June Philly Fed Business Outlook exploded to +27.5 from -43.1.  -21.4 was expected.  The LEI (Leading Economic Index) for May surged to 2.8% from -6.1% in April.  2.4% was expected.

G7 calls on China to reconsider national security law for Hong Kong – The national security legislation is aimed at curbing secessionist activities that Beijing says fueled months-long anti-government protests in the semi-autonomous Chinese territory…foreign ministers from the G7 nations voiced “grave concern regarding China’s decision to impose a national security law on Hong Kong,” adding that it would breach the territory’s Basic Law and Beijing’s international commitments…

https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/g7-calls-on-china-to-reconsider-national-security-law-for-hong-kong-20200618-p553q2.html

Fauci is apparently desperate for some attention: Football may not happen at all this year, Fauci warns

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/18/us/football-happen-fauci-spt-trnd/index.html

The Fed balance sheet contracted by $74.246B (biggest drop since 5/1/09) due to a $92.05B decline in currency swaps for the week ended on Wednesday.   https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/current/

@SCOTUSblog: SCOTUS rules against Trump administration in challenge to decision to end DACA program, which allowed noncitizens brought to this country illegally as children to apply for protection from deportation, holding decision was arbitrary and capricious [Roberts sided with the 4 liberals]

 

@NicAtNigh: The Supreme Court is asking the President for a better justification for rescinding DACA. Where was Obama’s justification for bypassing Congress and granting DACA???

GOP @RepGosar: Obama could create it; Trump can end it. Disappointing ruling with a double standard

@marklevinshow: This week the Supreme Court did more damage to the rule of law and the Constitution than the rioters in the streets.

 

@OSHawkins: For those among us who put an inordinate amount of your hope in the political process think on this—14 of the last 18 SCOTUS appointments have come from Republican Presidents—what good has that done the conservative movement especially this past week?

 

@SteveDeaceShow: Since Roe v Wade, majority Republican-appointed Supreme Courts have contributed more to the canceling of the Constitution than the Democratic Party could’ve hoped to achieve on its own. And yet judges are the number one reason conservatives have stuck with the GOP. Cruel irony.

 

@realDonaldTrump: Do you get the impression that the Supreme Court doesn’t like me?

 

Justices Roberts, Ginsburg and Sotomayor have made it clear that they despise Trump.  So, DJT is making the SCOTUS a campaign issue – abetted by a ruling that favors ‘dreamers’ – with  over twenty million US workers out of jobs.

@realDonaldTrump: These horrible & politically charged decisions coming out of the Supreme Court are shotgun blasts into the face of people that are proud to call themselves Republicans or Conservatives. We need more Justices or we will lose our 2nd. Amendment & everything else. Vote Trump 2020…The recent Supreme Court decisions, not only on DACA, Sanctuary Cities, Census, and others, tell you only one thing, we need NEW JUSTICES of the Supreme Court. If the Radical Left Democrats assume power, your Second Amendment, Right to Life, Secure Borders, and Religious Liberty, among many other things, are OVER and GONE!

@ChadPergram: On the Senate flr, Cruz blasts SCOTUS DACA ruling. Calls it “Obama’s executive amnesty.”  Cruz says Roberts teaming up with liberal Justices is “becoming a pattern.” Cruz on Senate flr on DACA ruling: This decision today was lawlessness. It was gamesmanship. It was contrary to the judicial oath

    GOP Rep Jordan on DACA ruling: Chief Justice Roberts does it again, convoluting the law to appease the D.C. establishment. The Court’s decision creates two standards of executive power: one for President Obama and another for President TrumpToday’s decision binds the Trump Administration to the politically-expedient policy decisions of President Obama

     GOP Sen. Rubio on DACA ruling: You have a Supreme Court that appears to be legislating… what really troubles a lot of people is that some of the folks… the GOP… put on this bench.. .are actively becoming activists in the role that they’re playing. And it’s concerning

Sen. Cotton: If John Roberts Wants To Write Laws, He Should Resign and Run For Office

“It cannot be the law that what Barack Obama has unlawfully done, no president may undo… If the Chief Justice believes his political judgment is so exquisite, I invite him to resign, travel to Iowa, and get elected… These horrible & politically charged decisions coming out of the Supreme Court are shotgun blasts into the face of people that are proud to call themselves Republicans or Conservatives.”

https://thefederalist.com/2020/06/18/cotton-if-john-roberts-wants-to-write-laws-he-should-resign-and-run-for-office/

@thehill: “Judging is not a game. It’s not supposed to be a game but sadly over recent years more and more, Chief Justice Roberts has been playing games with the court to achieve the policy outcomes he desires,” Sen. Cruz said.

@EmeraldRobinson: The reason Chief Justice Roberts has gone rogue recently wouldn’t have anything to do with him appointing the FISA judges, right?  You know: being responsible for the judges on a secret court who helped the FBI spy illegally on the Trump campaign can do funny things to people.

@seanmdav: George W. Bush’s presidential legacy consists of the Iraq War, Barack Obama, and John Roberts. What an utter failure

 

After the SCOTUS DACA decision, which effectively made an Executive Order law, legal eagles quickly realized that it gives the Trump the authority to create law that would encumber the ensuing administration.  Trump suggested that he might exploit the seemingly unconstitutional ruling.

@realDonaldTrump: The DACA decision, while a highly political one, and seemingly not based on the law, gives the President of the United States far more power than EVER anticipated. Nevertheless, I will only act in the best interests of the United States of America!

@MaryMargOlohan: A reminder that the upcoming SCOTUS abortion decision comes after Schumer warned justices that they would “pay” for a wrong decision: “I want to tell you Gorsuch. I want to tell you Kavanaugh. You have released the whirlwind and you will pay the price.”

Esquire: The Blackmailing of John Roberts – Crazy people think President Obama blackmailed Roberts for his Affordable Care Act vote… https://www.esquire.com/news-politics/politics/news/a36019/the-true-story/

Sr. WH Advisor @JennaEllisEsq: If Joe Biden is elected President, America as we know it is OVER.

 

The left-leaning @thehill: Joe Biden: “You ought to marry into a family of 5 or more sisters… You know why that’s the reason? One of them always loves you.”   https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1273644757995130880

Poll: 55% [of “likely voters”] Believe That Biden Potentially Has ‘Early Stages of Dementia’

While a majority of men (60% more likely/40% less likely) thought it this was likely, women (50% more likely/50% less likely) were less likely to think that the vice president was in the early stages of dementia,” Zogby International wrote… [John Zogby is a Democrat.]

https://www.dailywire.com/news/poll-55-believe-that-biden-potentially-has-early-stages-of-dementia

Washington mayor calls BLM ‘domestic terrorism’ after vandals target her home

The Democratic mayor still has three years left in her term…  https://trib.al/wG636bb

Ex-NSC official @RichHiggins_DC: “As early as 1928, the communists declared that the racial differences among our people constituted the weakest and most vulnerable point in our social fabric.”

Babylon Bee: Democrat Lawmakers All Retire Since Supreme Court Doing Their Job for Them

The simple step of a courageous individual is not to take part in the lie.”– Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn

Well that is all for today

Let us close out the week with this offering courtesy of Greg Hunter

Don’t Resist Arrest, Global Reset Coming, No Real Recovery

By Greg Hunter On June 19, 2020

President Trump signed an Executive Order (EO) on some police reforms this past week that, among other things, bans chokeholds.  What about reforms and instructions for the public interacting with police?  President Trump missed an opportunity to tell citizens NOT to resist arrest and to follow lawful commands of the nation’s law enforcement officers.  That would go a long way to stopping the violent confrontations and police doing their jobs.

Delegitimizing police and causing chaos seems to be part of the plan by the Democrat Party, which has adopted a Marxist communist agenda.  The big picture story here is America is under full on attack, but not for reform.  It is all part of the New World Order plan to stomp out America and reset the world economically and geopolitically.  There is going to be a so-called reset that the globalists have been planning at the World Economic Forum in Davos.  What will it look like?  If Donald Trump gets to reset things, the globalists will not like how that plays out.  The battle is really about who is going to shape the reset and how will the world look afterward.

You have heard talk of a so-called “V” shaped economic recovery, but charts say the “V” is pretty shallow. Yet another 1.5 million Americans applied for unemployment benefits pushing the total to more than 44 million.  When will this end?

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he talks about these stories and others in the Weekly News Wrap-Up.

 

-END-

I will see you MONDAY night.

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