JUNE 25//GLD DOWN $3.30 ON COMEX OPTIONS EXPIRY DAY//SILVER UP 12 CENTS TO $17.76//GOLD TONNAGE STANDING AT THE COMEX: 171.4 TONNES//ALSO JULY WILL BE A STRONG DELIVERY MONTH IN GOLD OF 13.4 TONNES//CORONAVIRUS UPDATES AROUND THE GLOBE: USA AND BRAZIL ARE THE TROUBLE SPOTS//ANOTHER 1.48 MILLION AMERICANS FILE FOR UNEMPLOYMENT BENEFITS//MORE SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT///

GOLD:$1761.70  DOWN $3.30   The quote is London spot price

 

 

 

 

 

Silver:$17.76//UP 12 CENTS  London spot price

 

COMEX EXPIRY TODAY

LBMA/OTC OPTIONS EXPIRE JUNE 30//

 

 

 

Closing access prices:  London spot

i)Gold : $1764.00  LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

 

ii)SILVER:  $17.80//LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

CLOSING FUTURES PRICES:  KEY MONTHS

 

 

AUG GOLD:  $1770.30  CLOSE 1.30 PM//   SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE JUNE: $8.60

 

CLOSING SILVER FUTURE MONTH

 

SILVER JULY COMEX CLOSE;   $17.85…1:30 PM.//SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE JULY//  :  9 CENTS  PER OZ

 

 

the gold market continues to be broken as future prices are much higher than spot prices.  The comex is desperate to fix things but they have no available gold.

If one is to buy gold and or gold coins, the price is around $2600. usa per oz

and silver; $29.00 per oz//

 

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN: YOU ARE NOW WITNESSING FIRST HAND THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN PAPER GOLD/SILVER AND THE REAL PHYSICAL STUFF!!

 

COMEX DATA

 

 

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING: 58/518

issued: 455

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: JUNE 2020 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,765.800000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 06/24/2020 DELIVERY DATE: 06/26/2020
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
152 C DORMAN TRADING 20
159 C ED&F MAN CAP 1
190 H BMO CAPITAL 2
332 H STANDARD CHARTE 20
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 17 10
657 H MORGAN STANLEY 240
661 C JP MORGAN 455 58
661 H JP MORGAN 64
686 C INTL FCSTONE 23
690 C ABN AMRO 21 41
737 C ADVANTAGE 4 28
800 C MAREX SPEC 25
905 C ADM 7
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 518 518
MONTH TO DATE: 53,476

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  APRIL CONTRACT: 518 NOTICE(S) FOR 51800 OZ (1.611 tonnes)

 

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  53476 NOTICES FOR 5,347,600 OZ  (166.33 TONNES)

 

 

SILVER

 

 

 

 

2 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 10,000  OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month: 433 for 2,165,000 oz

 

BITCOIN MORNING QUOTE  $9277  DOWN 20

 

BITCOIN AFTERNOON QUOTE.: $9284 DOWN $13

 

GLD AND SLV INVENTORIES:

WITH GOLD DOWN $3.30 AND NO PHYSICAL TO BE FOUND ANYWHERE:

WITH ALL REFINERS CLOSED//MEXICO ORDERING ALL MINES SHUT:   WHERE ARE THEY GETTING THE “PHYSICAL”?

A MONSTROUS (CRIMINAL) CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD// A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 7.60 TONNES OF GOLD

 

GLD: 1,176.85 TONNES OF GOLD//

 

WITH SILVER UP A STRONG 12 CENTS TODAY: AND WITH NO SILVER AROUND

A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.

A STRONG PAPER DEPOSIT OF 0.931 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///

 

RESTING SLV INVENTORY TONIGHT:

 

SLV: 491.858  MILLION OZ./

 

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Let us have a look at the data for today

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

IN SILVER THE COMEX OI FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 3188 CONTRACTS FROM 183,444 DOWN  TO 180,256, AND FURTHER FROM OUR NEW RECORD OF 244,710, (FEB 25/2020. THE STRONG SIZED LOSS IN  OI OCCURRED WITH OUR CONSIDERABLE 31 CENT LOSS  IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. IT SEEMS THAT THE LOSS IN COMEX OI IS PRIMARILY DUE TO SPREADER LIQUIDATION ALONG WITH  HUGE  BANKER SHORT COVERING PLUS A STRONG EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE, SOME LONG LIQUIDATION, ACCOMPANYING  A ZERO INCREASE IN SILVER OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR JUNE.  WE HAD A NET LOSS IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 1612 CONTRACTS  (SEE CALCULATIONS BELOW).

 

 

 

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A HUMONGOUS AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE:   JULY: 1185  AND SEP 391 FOR ZERO ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  104 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 1455 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 1576 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 7.880 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 31 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

7.32     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

2.630     MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOV.

20.970   MILLION OZ  FINAL STANDING IN DEC

5.075     MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JAN

1.480    MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN FEB

23.005  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAR

4.660  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR APRIL

45.220 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAY

2.190  MILLION OF INITIALLY STANDING FOR JUNE

 

WEDNESDAY, AGAIN OUR CROOKS USED COPIOUS PAPER IN ORDER TO LIQUIDATE SILVER’S PRICE…AND THEY WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL 31 CENTS).. AND,OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS  WERE NO DOUBT  UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE SOME SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR POSITIONS. THE STRONG LOSS AT THE COMEX WAS ACCOMPANIED BY : i)  A STRONG SPREADER LIQUIDATION, ii) A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS 2) A ZERO INCREASE IN SILVER OZ STANDING,  HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING  AND 4) MINIMAL LONG LIQUIDATION AS  WE DID HAVE A STRONG NET LOSS OF 1612 CONTRACTS OR 8.060 MILLION OZ ON THE TWO EXCHANGES! YOU CAN BET THE FARM THAT OUR BANKER  ARE DESPERATE TO LIQUIDATE THEIR HUGE SHORT POSITIONS IN SILVER

SPREADING OPERATIONS

 

OUR SPREADING OPERATION HAS NOW SWITCHED INTO SILVER…..

SPREADING OPERATION FOR OUR NEWCOMERS:

 

FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS:

 

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED IN SILVER  AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF JULY.

 

 

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEW, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE SPREADERS AND THE CRIMINAL ELEMENT BEHIND IT:

 HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

 

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR GOLD..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR SILVER.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

 

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

.

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO SILVER AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX SILVER OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY FOR SILVER:

 

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF JUNE. BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JULY), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

JUNE

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY /FOR MONTH OF JUNE:

11,742 CONTRACTS (FOR 20 TRADING DAY(S) TOTAL 11,742 CONTRACTS) OR 58.71 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 587 CONTRACTS OR 2.933 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF MAY: 58.71 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 8.38% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

 

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2020 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          1,124.77 MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2020 EFP TOTALS SO FAR: 181.61 MILLION OZ

FEB 2020 EFP’S TOTAL :  ……     259.600 MILLION OZ

MARCH EFP’S …..                     452.280 MILLION OZ  //TOTALS//AND A NEW RECORD FOR THE MONTH)

APRIL EFP                               95.355 MILLION OZ.  (EX. FOR PHYSICALS BECOMING A LOT LESS)

MAY EFP FINAL:                     77.27 MILLION OZ

JUNE EXP SO FAR                   58.71 MILLION OZ.

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE FOR THE PAST 60 DAYS IS A LOT LESS.  NO DOUBT THAT THE COST TO CARRY THESE THINGS HAS EXPLODED  AND AS SUCH CANNOT BE DONE AS FREQUENTLY AS BEFORE.

 

RESULT: WE HAD A  STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 3188, WITH OUR 31 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ///WEDNESDAY… THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 1576 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER

 

TODAY WE LOST A VERY STRONG SIZED OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:  1376 CONTRACTS (WITH OUR 31 CENT GAIN IN PRICE)//WITH THE DOMINANT FACTOR BEING SPREADER LIQUIDATION

 

THE TALLY//EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

i.e 1576 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH A STRONG SIZED DECREASE OF 2952 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND HAPPENED DESPITE A 31 CENT LOSS IN PRICE OF SILVER/AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $17.64 // WEDNESDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY. 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 0.9010 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 129% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW  JUNE  DELIVERY MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 2 NOTICE(S) FOR 10,000 OZ OF SILVER.

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018. AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.70//TODAY’S RECORD OF 244,705 IS SET WITH A PRICE OF: 18.91 (FEB 25/2020)

 

.

 

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 10.025 MILLION OZ/ SEPT 43.030 MILLION OZ//OCT: 7.665 MILLION OZ//   NOV: 2.630 MILLION OZ//DEC:  20.970 MILLION OZ; JAN:  5.075 MILLION OZ.//FEB 1.480 MILLION OZ//MAR: 23.005 MILLION OZ/APRIL 4.660 MILLION OZ//MAY  45.220 MILLION OZ//JUNE: 2.190 MILLION OZ//
  2. THE  RECORD PRIOR TO TODAY WAS SET IN FEB 25/2018:  244,710 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $18.90//.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

 

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 

GOLD

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A SURPRISINGLY STRONG SIZED 5159 CONTRACTS TO 537,260 AND CLOSER TO OUR NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE STRONG SIZED GAIN OF COMEX OI OCCURRED DESPITE OUR SMALL LOSS IN PRICE  OF $1.50 /// COMEX GOLD TRADING// WEDNESDAY// WE  HAD STRONG BANKER SHORT COVERING, ANOTHER HUMONGOUS SIZED INCREASE IN GOLD OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX, ALONG WITH ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION ACCOMPANYING A SMALL EXCHANGE FOR  PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. THIS ALL HAPPENED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $1.50 .

 

WE HAD A VOLUME OF 0    4 -GC CONTRACTS//OPEN INTEREST  25

 

WE GAINED A GOOD SIZED 7,961 CONTRACTS  (21.09 TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

 

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

 

 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A SMALL SIZED 2802 CONTRACTS:

CONTRACT  JUNE 0.; AUG 2802 AND DEC: 0  ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO//TOTAL: 2802.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 537,260. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 7,961 CONTRACTS: 5159 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 2802 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 7961 CONTRACTS OR 24.76 TONNES. WEDNESDAY, WE HAD A LOSS OF $1.50 IN GOLD TRADING…...

AND WITH THAT LOSS IN  PRICE, WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN IN  TOTAL/TWO EXCHANGES GOLD TONNAGE OF 24.76 TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS/OFFICIAL SECTOR  SUPPLIED INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER WITH RECKLESS ABANDON. THE BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE (IT FELL $1.50).AND IT ALSO SEEMS THAT THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE ANY GOLD LONGS FROM THE GOLD ARENA WAS  UNSUCCESSFUL  (SEE BELOW).

 

 

 

 

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:

WE HAD A SMALL SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS  (2802) ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI  (5159 OI): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES:  8,235 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1 )HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING, 2.)A POWERFUL INCREASE IN GOLD  OUNCES STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR THE FRONT JUNE MONTH,  3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION; 4) STRONG COMEX OI GAIN.. AND  …ALL OF THIS WAS COUPLED WITH OUR SMALL LOSS IN GOLD PRICE TRADING//WEDNESDAY//$1.50.

 

WE ARE BEGINNING TO WITNESS A LACK OF EXCHANGE FOR GOLD PHYSICALS UNDERWRITTEN DUE TO PREMIUMS STARTING TO REAPPEAR IN THE FUTURE PRICE OF GOLD VS LONDON SPOT. THE COST TO THE BANKERS IS JUST TOO GREAT TO ENGAGE IN THESE VEHICLES ONCE THIS OCCURS.

THE FACT THAT WE ARE CONTINUALLY SEEING A DROP IN COMEX OPEN INTEREST AND VOLUMES COUPLED WITH LESS EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS PROBABLY MEANS THAT OUR LONGS ARE ALREADY DEPARTING NEW YORK FOR THE NEW PHYSICAL PLATFORM AT LONDON’S LME.

 

 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2020 INCLUDING TODAY

JUNE

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE : 55,599 CONTRACTS OR 5,559,900 oz OR 172.94 TONNES (20 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2779 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

 

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 20 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 172.94 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2019, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 172.94/3550 x 100% TONNES =4.87% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD HAS DISSIPATED THIS MONTHTHE COST TO THE BANKERS TO CARRY THESE CONTRACTS IN LONDON IS BECOMING TOO GREAT FOR THEM.

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2020 TO DATE   2987.06  TONNES

JANUARY 2220 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE; : 570.19 TONNES

FEB 2020 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE :            653.78 TONNES

MARCH TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE                1,098.93  TONNES  (*AND A NEW ALL TIME RECORD ISSUANCE//22 DAYS)

APRIL TOTAL EFP. ISSUANCE:               243.45  TONNES  (EFP ISSUANCE BECOMING A LOT LESS)

MAY TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                     248.68 TONNES (EFP ISSUANCE STILL LOW// PREMIUM COST TO THE BANKERS IS HUGE..SO ISSUANCE IS LESS)

JUNE TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                     164.22 TONNES

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

 

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 3188 CONTRACTS FROM 183,444 DOWN TO 180,256 AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 3/4 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

THE STRONG LOSS IN OI SILVER COMEX WAS PRIMARILY DUE TO;   1) STRONG SPREADER LIQUIDATION AND AS WELL WE HAD 2) BANKER SHORT COVERING , 3) A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (SEE BELOW), 4) A ZERO INCREASE IN SILVER OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR JUNE AND  5) MINIMAL LONG LIQUIDATION 

 

EFP ISSUANCE 1576 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

JULY: 1185 CONTRACTS   AND SEPT: 391 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1576 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI LOSS  OF 3188  CONTRACTS TO THE 1576 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A STRONG LOSS OF 1612 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 8.060 MILLION  OZ!!! OCCURRED WITH THE 31 CENT LOSS IN PRICE///

 

 

RESULT: A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE 31 CENT LOSS IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// WEDNESDAY. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED 1576 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

 

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

(report Harvey)

 

 

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)THURSDAY MORNING/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 8.93 POINTS OR 0.30%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 125.76 POINTS OR 0.50%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 274.53 POINTS OR 1.2%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 2.53%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 7.0782 /Oil DOWN TO 37.40 dollars per barrel for WTI and 39.80 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.0782 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0877 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY PAST 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED//CORONAVIRUS/PANDEMIC/  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A SURPRISING 5159 CONTRACTS TO 537,260 MOVING CLOSER TO  OUR  RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020).  AND ALL OF THIS CONSIDERABLE  COMEX ADVANCE OCCURRED DESPITE OUR LOSS OF $1.50 IN GOLD PRICING /WEDNESDAY’S COMEX TRADING//). WE ALSO HAD A SMALL EFP ISSUANCE (2802 CONTRACTS),.  THUS WE HAD 1) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AT THE COMEX AND 2)  ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AND 3)  ANOTHER GIGANTIC INCREASE IN  GOLD OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX//JUNE DELIVERY MONTH (SEE BELOW) , …  AS WE ENGINEERED A STRONG GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 7961 CONTRACTS DESPITE GOLD’S SMALL LOSS IN PRICE.

 

 

WE  HAD 0    4 -GC VOLUME//open interest REMAINS AT 25

 

 

 

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A SMALL SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 2802 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  2802 FOR AUG AND 0 FOR DEC AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2802 CONTRACTS.

YOU WILL FIND THAT WHEN WE HAVE A PREMIUM IN THE FUTURES/SPOT, THEN THE NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS DECLINE IN NUMBERS.  THE COST IS JUST TOO MUCH FOR THEM TO ISSUE.

 

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:  7961 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 2802 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 5159 COMEX CONTRACTS.  THE BANKERS PROVIDED ALL THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER TO WHICH OUR LONGS DUTIFULLY ACCEPTED AS THEY GOBBLED UP A GOOD  AMOUNT OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WITH HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING, ACCOMPANYING OUR GOOD COMEX OI GAIN,  A HUGE INCREASE GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR THE JUNE DELIVERY (SEE CALCULATIONS BELOW)… AND ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION……AND DESPITE ALL OF THE ABOVE WE HAD A LOSS IN COMEX PRICE OF 1.50 DOLLARS..

 

THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT FELL $1.50)AND, THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING SOME LONGS 

AS THE TOTAL GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES REGISTERED A VERY STRONG 24.76 TONNES.

 

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES :: 7961 CONTRACTS OR 796,100 OZ OR 24.76 TONNES.

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT COMMODITY FUTURES OPEN INTEREST SHOULD APPROXIMATE 3% OF TOTAL PRODUCTION.  IN GOLD THE WORLD PRODUCES AROUND 3500 TONNES PER YEAR BUT ONLY 2200 TONNES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE WEST (THUS EXCLUDING RUSSIA, CHINA ETC..WHO KEEP 100% OF THEIR PRODUCTION)

THUS IN GOLD WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:  537,260 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS X 100 OZ PER CONTRACT = 53.72 MILLION OZ/32,150 OZ PER TONNE =  1671 TONNES

THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST REPRESENTS 1671/2200 OR 75.95% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF GOLD.

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 154,292 contracts//poor//most traders have moved to London

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  262,052 contracts//  volume fair //most of our traders have left for London

 

 

JUNE 25 /2020

JUNE GOLD CONTRACT MONTH

 

 

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
32,182.15
oz
Loomis
1001 kilobars
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz NIL oz

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

192.91

OZ

BRINKS

 

 

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
518 notice(s)
 51,800 OZ
(1.611 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
1298 contracts
(129,800 oz)
4.037 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
53,476 notices
5,347,600 OZ
166.33 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

We had 0 deposit into the dealer

 

total deposit: nil oz

 

DEALER WITHDRAWAL: 0

 

 

 

 

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had 1 deposits into the customer account

i) Into Brinks:  192.91  oz

 

total deposits: 192.91 oz

 

we had 1 gold withdrawals from the customer account:

 

 

ii) Out of Loomis: 32,182.15   (1001 kilobars)

 

 

 

total gold withdrawals;  32182.15 oz

We had 1  kilobar transactions  +

 

ADJUSTMENTS: 2 //    

 

 

dealer to customer: SCOTIA

 

i) JPMorgan:  1517.360 oz

CUSTOMER TO DEALER

Manfra

38,870.559 OZ

 

The front month of JUNE registered a total of 1816 oi contracts FOR a GAIN of 506 contracts.  We had 45 notices filed on WEDNESDAY so we GAINED A HUMONGOUS 551 contracts or an additional  55100 oz of gold (1.7138 TONNES) will  stand in this very active delivery month of June as these guys REFUSED TO morph into London based forwards

 

After June we have the non active delivery month of July and here we had a GAIN of 479 contracts UP to 4383 contracts. Thus we are going to have another humdinger of a delivery month for the non active month of July of around 4400 contracts or 440,000 or  (13.7 tonnes)

Next comes August another strong delivery month and here the OI ROSE by A STRONG 1836  contracts UP to 375,797 contracts.

 

We had 518 notices filed today for 51800 oz

 

FOR THE JUNE 2020 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 455 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 518 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 58 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JUNE /2020. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (53,476) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  JUNE (1816 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today (518 x 100 oz per contract) equals 5,422,300 OZ OR 168.656 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this active month of JUNE

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JUNE/2020 contract month:

No of notices served (53,476)x 100 oz + (1816 OI) for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (518) x 100 oz which equals 5,477,400 oz standing OR 170.37 TONNES in this  active delivery month. This is a HUGE record amount for gold standing for a JUNE delivery month or any active/non active delivery month.

We GAINED  551 contracts or AN ADDITIONAL 55,100 oz will stand on this side of the pond.  Issuance of exchange for physicals is SMALL today…  It is still too costly for our crooked bankers to carry.

 

 

 

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:  BRINKS

 

144,088.952 oz NOW PLEDGED  JAN 21.2020/HSBC  5.4807 TONNES

312,441.780 oz PLEDGED  JUNE 24// 2020  JPMORGAN:  10.036 TONNES

42,548.308.00 PLEDGED  APRIL 3/2020: SCOTIA:            1.3234 tonnes

19,290.600 oz Pledged May 8/2020   INT DELAWARE:  .600 TONNES

 

477,821.587 oz pledged June 12/2020 Brinks/               14.865 tonnes

total pledged gold:  996,191.227.127 oz                             31.017 tonnes

 

 

 

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES…. WE HAVE 365.34 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS ie. 170.37 tonnes

CALCULATION OF REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SETTLED UPON:

total registered or dealer  12,741,875.281 oz or 396.32 tonnes
which  includes the following:
a) pledged gold held at HSBC   which cannot settled upon   144,088.952 oz x ( 4.4817 TONNES)//
b) pledged gold held at JPMorgan (SOME  DELETED JUNE 24 2020) which cannot be settled upon:  312,441.780 oz (or 9.718 tonnes)
total pledged gold:
c)  pledged gold at Scotia: 1.3234 tonnes or 42,548.308 oz which cannot be settled  (1.3234 tonnes)
d) pledged gold at Manfra:  DELETED  MAY 26.2020
e) pledged gold at int.Del.    19,290.600 oz  which cannot be settled:   (.600 tonnes)
f) pledged gold at Brinks:  21,026.754 oz which cannot be settled June 5 (.65402 tonnes)
g) pledged gold at Brinks: 456,794,87 oz added which cannot be settled:  14.208 tonnes
total brinks:  477,821.587 oz
total weight of pledged:  996,191.227 oz or 31.017 tonnes
thus:
registered gold that can be used to settle upon: 11,745,684  (365.34 tonnes)
true registered gold  (total registered – pledged tonnes  11,745,684.0 (365.34 tonnes)
total eligible gold:  18,904,191.227 oz (587.99 tonnes)

total registered, pledged  and eligible (customer) gold;   31,577,887.502 oz 982.120 tonnes (INCLUDES 4 GC GOLD)

total 4 GC gold:   126.34 tonnes

total gold net of 4 GC:  855.58 tonnes

 

end

 

I have compiled  data with respect to registered (or dealer) gold taken on first day notice for each of the past 24 months

The data begins on first day notice for the May month taken on the last day of April 2018. and it continues to present day.  Thus 24 data entry points.

 

I then took, how many deliveries were recorded by the CME for each and every month.  I also included for reference the price of gold on first day notice.

 

The first graph is a logarithmic  graph and the second graph, linear.

You can see the huge explosion of registered gold at the comex along with deliveries.  Gold owners are very clear people.  They would know full well that

the gold at the comex is unallocated and that they would not be stupid enough to keep their gold at the comex especially in the registered category once deliveries are asked upon. If physical gold was present it would be have removed from the comex… It shows there is no gold at the comex.  They are just trading in sticky paper.

 

 

THE GOLD COMEX SEEMS TO BE  UNDER SEVERE ASSAULT FOR PHYSICAL

 

END

JUNE 25/2020

And now for the wild silver comex results

we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 3188 CONTRACTS FROM 183,444 DOWN TO 180,256 AND FURTHER FROM OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,384 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 3/4 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

THE STRONG LOSS IN OI SILVER COMEX WAS DUE TO;   1) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING , 2) A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (SEE BELOW), 3) A ZERO INCREASE IN SILVER OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR JUNE AND  4) SMALL LONG LIQUIDATION 5) STRONG SPREADER LIQUIDATION 

 

EFP ISSUANCE 1576 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

JULY: 1185 CONTRACTS   AND SEPT: 391 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1576 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI LOSS  OF 2,952  CONTRACTS TO THE 1576 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A VERY STRONG LOSS OF 1376 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 6.880 MILLION  OZ!!! OCCURRED WITH THE 31 CENT LOSS IN PRICE///HOWEVER THE DOMINANT LOSS IN OI WAS DUE TO SPREADER LIQUIDATION.

 

 

RESULT: A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE 31 CENT GAIN IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// WEDNESDAY. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED 1576 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

 

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

JUNE 25/2020

JUNE SILVER COMEX CONTRACT MONTH

 

 

Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 985,745.002 oz
CNT
Loomis
Delaware

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
 629,936.600 oz
Brinks

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
1,198,436.010 oz
CNT
Brinks
Scotia
No of oz served today (contracts)
2
CONTRACT(S)
(10,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
6 contracts
 30,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  433 contracts

2,165,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
We had 1 deposit into the dealer:
i) Into the dealer Brinks:  629,936.600 oz

total dealer deposits:629,936.600 oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

 

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

i)we had 3 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:   0

ii) Into Brinks  629,936.600 oz

iii) Into CNT:  603,726.110 oz

iv) Into Scotia:  594,709.900  oz

 

 

 

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017, 2018 and onward, has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 160.819 million oz of  total silver inventory or 50.67% of all official comex silver. (160.819 million/319.110 million

 

total customer deposits today: 1,198,436.010    oz

we had 3 withdrawals:

i) Out of CNT:  699,870.102 oz

ii) Out of Delaware; 12,990.000 oz

iii) Out of Loomis; 272,886.900

 

 

 

 

total withdrawals; nil   oz

We had 0 adjustments

 

 

total dealer silver: 88.859 million

total dealer + customer silver:  319.953 million oz

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The front month of June has an open interest of 8 for a loss  of 3 contracts.  We had  3 contracts served upon on WEDNESDAY so we gained 0 oz of silver standing.

The next month of July sees its open interest fall by 9,167 down to 39,224. August sees its open interest rise by 18 contracts up to 575

The big September contract month sees a gain of 5771 contracts up to 111,580.

Most of the loss in the front month of July was due to spreader liquidation.

 

The total number of notices filed today for the JUNE 2020. contract month is represented by 2 contract(s) FOR 10,000, oz

 

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JUNE we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 433 x 5,000 oz = 2,165,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JUNE.(8) and the number of notices served upon today 2 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

 

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the JUNE/2019 contract month: 433 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of JUNE (8)- number of notices served upon today (2) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the JUNE contract month.equals 2,190,000 oz.

We GAINED 0 contracts or an additional nil oz will stand for delivery as they refused to morphed into London based forwards as well as negating a fiat bonus

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME: 66,149 CONTRACTS // volume very good/

 

 

FOR YESTERDAY: 101,069..,CONFIRMED VOLUME//volume excellent/

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 101,067 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 505 million  OZ  121.0% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

 

NPV for Sprott

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV  FALLS TO- 1.38% ((JUNE 25/2020)

2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV  FALLS TO -0.17% to NAV:   (JUNE 25/2020 )

Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ 1.38%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 16.72 TRADING 16.68///NEGATIVE 0.28

END

 

 

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

JUNE 25//WITH GOLD DOWN $3.30 TODAY//ANOTHER STRONG PAPER DEPOSIT OF 7.6 TONNES///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1176.85 TONNES

JUNE 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.50 TODAY;  A STRONG 3.21 TONNES ADDED TO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1169.25  TONNES

JUNE 23/WITH GOLD UP $25.50 TODAY/ANOTHER CRIMINAL PAPER DEPOSIT OF 6.73 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1166.04 TONNES

JUNE 22/WITH GOLD UP $14.00 A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 23.09 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1159.31 TONNES

JUNE 19/WITH GOLD UP$16.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//; INVENTORY RESTS AT 1136.22 TONNES

JUNE 18//WITH GOLD DOWN $2.75 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY: INVENTORY RESTS AT 1136.22 TONNES

JUNE 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.05: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1136.22 TONNES

JUNE 16//WITH GOLD UP $6.70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY: /INVENTORY RESTS AT 1136.22 TONNES

JUNE 15/WITH GOLD DOWN ANOTHER $8.80 TODAY, NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1136.22 TONNES

JUNE 12//WITH GOLD DOWN $1.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 1.17 TONNES AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1136.22 TONNES

JUNE 11//WITH GOLD UP $16.80 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 6.55 TONNES AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1135.05 TONNES

JUNE 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $.30 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A DEPOSIT OF 4.02 TONNES AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1129.50 TONNES

JUNE 9//WITH GOLD UP $16.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.63 TONNES OF GOLD AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1125.48 TONNES

JUNE 8//WITH GOLD UP $18.70 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.10 TONNES AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1128.11 TONNES

 

JUNE 5//WITH GOLD DOWN $40.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES OUT OF THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1132.21 TONNES

JUNE 4//WITH GOLD UP $20.60: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD…A DEPOSIT OF 4.09 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1133.37 TONNES

JUNE 3//WITH GOLD DOWN $26.15//A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY//A DEPOSIT OF 0.78 TONNES OF GLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1129.28 TONNES

JUNE 2//WITH GOLD DOWN $11.20 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 5.26 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1128.40 TONNES

JUNE 1//WITH GOLD UP $1.30//A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.06 TONNES OF GOLD//GLD INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 1123.14 TONNES

MAY 29/WITH GOLD UP $19.40 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD///GLD INVENTORY RESTS THIS WEEKEND AT 1119.05 TONNES

MAY 28//WITH GOLD UP $4.00 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY TO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS  AT 1119.05 TONNES

MAY 27/WITH GOLD UP $.10 TODAY: A STRONG 2.34 TONNES OF GOLD ADDED TO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1119.05 TONNES

MAY 26//WITH GOLD DOWN $23.05//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY://RESTS TONIGHT AT 1116.71 TONNES

MAY 22//WITH GOLD UP $13.05//A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY:: A PAPER ADDITION OF 3.93 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS THIS WEEKEND AT:  1116.71 TONNES

MAY 21//WITH GOLD DOWN $26.70//NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1112.32 TONNES

MAY 20/WITH GOLD UP $7.20: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.46 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 1112.32 TONNES

MAY 19//WITH GOLD UP $10.60//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1113.78 TONNES

MAY 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $15.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 9.06 TONNES./INVENTORY RESTS AT 1113.78 TONNES

MAY 15.WITH GOLD UP $16.30 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 12.58 TONNES/  INVENTORY RESTS AT 1104.72 TONNES

MAY 14//WITH GOLD UP $19.25 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1092.14 TONNES

MAY 13//WITH GOLD UP $9.05 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A DEPOSIT OF 11.07 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1092.14 TONNES

MAY 12//WITH GOLD UP $6.60 TODAY; A SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A WITHDRAWAL OF .58 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1081.07 TONNES

MAY 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.65 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY: //INVENTORY RESTS AT 1081.65 TONES..

MAY 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.00 TODAY; A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: A PAPER ADDITION OF 5.85 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1081.65 TONNES

MAY 7/WITH GOLD UP $29.65 TODAY : A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A PAPER ADDITION OF .41 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1075.80 TONNES

MAY 6//WITH GOLD DOWN $17.00 TODAY/ A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A PAPER ADDITION OF 3.68 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1075.39 TONES

MAY 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.65 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER ADDITION OF 3.81 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1071.71 TONNES

MAY 4//WITH GOLD UP $12.00 TODAY//A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE PAPER DEPOSIT OF 11.4 TONNES INTO THE GLD////GOLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 1067.90 TONNES

MAY 1/WITH GOLD UP $8.45 NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1056.50 TONNES

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

Inventory rests tonight at

JUNE 25/ GLD INVENTORY 1176.85 tonnes*

LAST;  847 TRADING DAYS:   +232.85 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN ADDED THE GLD

 

LAST 747 TRADING DAYS://+408.11  TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

 

end

 

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

JUNE 25/WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 931,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.858 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 24///WITH SILVER DOWN 31 CENTS// NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.927 MILLION OZ

JUNE 23//WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY: A MONSTROUS CHANGE IN INVENTORY: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 4.473 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.927 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 22/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 486/454 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 19//WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS TODAY: STRANGE!!  A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 839,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 486,454 MILLION OZ..

JUNE 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 932,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.293 MILLION OZ

JUNE 17/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.261 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY REST AT 486.361 MILLION OZ

JUNE 16//WITH SILVER UP 20 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.118 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.100 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: //INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.982  MILLION OZ///

JUNE 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 30 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: TWO DEPOSITS OF 7.269 MILLION OZ AND 1.802 MILLION OZ ADDED TO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS THIS WEEKEND AT 481.982 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 11//WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.89 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 10/WITH SILVER  UP 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.849 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY//A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.605 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 422.849 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 8/WITH SILVER UP 36 CENTS TODAY: TWO HUGE WITHDRAWALS OF 932,000 MILLION OZ AND 1.491 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 470.240 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 46 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 648,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.663  MILLION OZ

JUNE 4//WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 473.315 MILLION OZ//

 

JUNE 3//WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//

INVENTORY RESTS AT 473.315 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 2//WITH SILVER DOWN 31 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A HUMONGOUS 6.686 MILLION OZ ADDED TO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 473.315 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 1//WITH SILVER UP 38 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.56 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 466.629 MILLION OZ//

MAY 29//WITH SILVER UP 52 CENTS TODAY: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 2.796 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS THIS WEEKEND AT 463.273 MILLION OZ//

MAY 28//WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: A MASSIVE  CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 4.660 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 460.477 MILLION OZ//

MAY 27/WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 455.817 MILLION OZ//

MAY 26//WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/// INVENTORY RESTS AT 455.817 MILLION OZ//

MAY 22/WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS TODAY/ A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.864 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 455.817 MILLION OZ/

LAST 5 DAYS: SILVER UP 60 CENTS: INVENTORY  UP A WHOOPING 23.767 MILLION OZ///

MAY 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 50 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE PAPER DEPOSIT OF 7.923 MILLION OZ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 457.681 MILLION OZ//

MAY 20//WITH SILVER UP ANOTHER 11 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SLV INVENTORY: A HUGE PAPER DEPOSIT OF 9.601 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 449.758 MILLION OZ

MAY 19/WITH SILVER UP ANOTHER 29 CENTS TODAY:  NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.157 MILLION OZ//

MAY 18/WITH SILVER UP ANOTHER 48 CENTS TODAY: TWO BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV I.E. 2 PAPER DEPOSIT OF ( I) 8.39 MILLION OZ AND THEN ( 2) 8.109 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 432.048 MILLION OZ// (TOTAL DEPOSITS 16.500 MILLION OZ///)

MAY 15/WITH SILVER UP 81 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: /INVENTORY RESTS AT 423.65 MILLION OZ.

MAY 14//WITH SILVER UP 33 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 423.65 MILLION OZ

MAY 13/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.79 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 423.65 MILLION OZ//


MAY 12/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.076 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 420.861 MILLION OZ//

MAY 11.WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 417.785 MILLION OZ//

MAY 8/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A MONSTER DEPOSIT OF 4.661 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV..///INVENTORY RESTS AT 417.785 MILLION OZ//

MAY 7/WITH SILVER UP 45 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 413.124 MILLION OZ//

MAY 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 413.124 MILLION OZ//

MAY 5/WITH SILVER UP 17 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 413.124 MILLION OZ///

MAY 4//WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY:2 HUGE PAPER CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.i).A  LARGE 1.399 MILLION OZ OF PAPER SILVER REMOVED FROM THE SLV//..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 411.427 MILLION OZ and ii) A LARGE 1.647 MILLION OZ OF PAPER SILVER ADDED TO THE SLV//  INVENTORY RESTS AT 413.124 MILLION OZ//


MAY 1/WITH SILVER FLAT IN PRICE: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 412.826 MILLION OZ///

 

JUNE 25.2020:

SLV INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT

491.858 MILLION OZ.

END

 

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES//  GOLD LEASE RATES

 

 

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 3.55/ and libor 6 month duration 0.38

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

GOLD LENDING RATE: -3.17%

NEGATIVE GOLD LEASING RATES INCREASING BY A HUGE AMOUNT//GOLD SCARCITY AND CENTRAL BANKS CALLING IN ALL OF THEIR GOLD LEASES

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 249%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 0.56

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = -1.93%

 

end

 

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

 

 

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

Zero hedge correctly wonders if the BIS has been busy in gold yesterday/today as the crooks bash gold/silver.

Zero Hedge wonders if the BIS has been busy in gold today

 Section: 

1p ET Wednesday, June 24, 2020

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Zero Hedge does another nice job on the not-so-strange pounding given gold and silver today and wonders whether the Bank for International Settlements is involved:

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/golds-getting-monkeyhammerd-silver-sla…

You can be sure that the Financial Times and Wall Street Journal won’t be making any calls to Basel to ask about it.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

Chris Marcus has a new book out on the Big Silver Short

(GATA/Chris Marcus)

New book by Chris Marcus of Arcadia Economics, ‘The Big Silver Short,’ is published

 Section: 

10:57p ET Wednesday, June 24, 2020

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Our friend Chris Marcus of Arcadia Economics (https://arcadiaeconomics.com/) has just published “The Big Silver Short,” which makes the case for much higher silver prices and includes interviews with 15 authorities in the monetary metals markets, including Ted Butler, Andrew Maguire, Rick Rule, David Morgan, and the late commissioner of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Bart Chilton.

The book covers manipulation of the silver market and what really happened with the silver forays of the Hunt Brothers and Warren Buffett.

It’s available in both paperback and Kindle format at Amazon.com here:

https://www.amazon.com/Big-Silver-Short-Short-Squeeze-Lifetime/dp/B08BDZ…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

iii) Other physical stories:

A must read…

(Egon Von Greyerz)

The ‘Can’ To Be Kicked-Down-The-Road Is Just Too Damn Big

Authored by Egon von Greyerz via GoldSwitzerland.com,

There are lies, damned lies, and economists. Whether these economists work for the government or a bank, they spend all their time on the computer extrapolating current trends with minor adjustments.

If you want to understand the future, don’t spend your life preparing and constantly revising an Excel sheet with masses of economic data. Collective human behaviour is extremely predictable. But not by spreadsheet analysis but by studying history. 

HISTORY IS A BETTER FORECASTER THAN ECONOMISTS

There just is nothing new under the sun. So why is there so much time and money wasted around the world to make economic forecasts that are no better than a random job by a few chimps?

Instead, give some lateral thinkers a few history books and let them study the rise and decline of the major empires in history. That will tell them more about long term economic forecasts than any spreadsheet.

After a 50 year decline of the US economy and the dollar, we still hear about the V-shaped recovery being imminent.

On what planet do these people live who believe that a world on the cusp of an economic and social collapse is going to see a miraculous recovery out of the blue. 

This is the problem with a system that is totally fake and dependant on constant flow of stimulus even though it has zero value. Most people are fooled and believe it is for real.

ALL EMPIRES END WITH COLLAPSING CURRENCY AND SURGING DEBTS

We are now in the final stages of the end game. The end of the end could be extended affairs or they could be extremely quick. Most declines of major cycles are drawn out and this one has lasted half a century. During that time the dollar is down 50% against the DM/Euro and 78% vs the Swiss franc. And US debt has gone up 65x since 1971 from $400B to $26T. A collapsing currency and surging debts are how all empires end.

But the end of the end has also been drawn out and started in 2006 with the Great Financial Crisis. The financial system was on the verge of collapse in 2008 but was miraculously rescued with tens of trillions of dollars in printed money and guarantees.

Central banks have since then frenetically kept the party going by manufacturing worthless paper money. The music should have stopped in 2008 but the participants are still dancing on the grave of a system that is about to succumb. 

The degree of the coming disintegration of the world economy will only be known with certainty by future historians. What is clear though is that we are seeing the end of a major cycle. What we will experience next is not just the fall of one nation but of most nations on earth, both advanced and developing countries. Debt is a global problem that virtually every country is seriously affected by. When the financial system crumbles so will world trade.

WHAT WILL HAPPEN NEXT?

Asset Bubbles can only end in one of two ways: Either they Implode or they Explode

The principal bubbles we are here talking about is the financial system, stock markets, bond markets, and property. So in principle, we are looking at two options for this era to end.

The net result is always the same although the Explosion finale will be the more violent and lead to a quicker massacre than the Implosion.

Explosion 

The risk of an Explosive end is very high. That would most probably involve acute problems in the banking system leading to a major bank defaulting, say Deutsche Bank. This would spread throughout the whole banking system like wildfire and obviously also affect the derivatives bubble of $1.5+ quadrillion. It would happen so quickly that central banks wouldn’t be able to print money fast enough to stop it. In any case, the whole financial world would know at that point that any freshly printed money would have ZERO value and therefore ZERO effect.

An Explosive outcome of this 100-year bubble-era would clearly be cataclysmic for the world. It would lead to a global deflationary depression of a magnitude never seen before. It would also take life back to a level of devastation and deprivation that would be unimaginable today. 

Implosion

The only difference with an Implosive outcome is that it would take longer and therefore involve both hope and pain as desperate central banks create trillions and quadrillions of worthless dollars, euros etc to temporarily keep the balloon inflated.

Even though this process would be more drawn out, it would also fail in the end. First, there would be a brief period, maybe a couple of years, of hyperinflation before it would end in a deflationary collapse.

So these are the two options. There is absolutely nothing that can stop it. Well, we always have Deus ex Machina of course. Yes, miracles can always happen and the world would certainly need one this time. But sadly the odds are not in favour of these kinds of wonders.

WHAT WE KNOW

  • Coronavirus is a convenient excuse but not the cause of the current problems. CV was a catalyst but the real crisis this time started in Aug-Sep 2019 with the Fed and ECB panicking.
  • The real problem is excessive debt at all levels of the economy, sovereign, corporate, financial, and personal. Governments and CBs have created the debt and are now desperately trying to remedy their mistake by doing more of the thing that created it all. As Einstein said, “We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking that we used when we created them”.
  • But CBs have no other tools. Rates are already zero and making them negative means you would have to pay for lending money to a bankrupt borrower. There are clearly more attractive investments which I will discuss later.
  • Unemployment is currently in the 100s of millions globally. Many people now earn more by not working and would be allergic to having to work for the money in the future. Also, a high percentage of the lost jobs will not come back in the world.

46 million Americans, almost 30% of the US workforce, have filed unemployment claims since CV started.

ILO (International Labour Organisation) estimates that almost 50% of the world’s labour force, in particular in developing countries could lose their jobs.

  • Businesses, big and small, are failing. 1000s of companies are going under in all sectors. Total losses will easily be in the $trillions.

As an example, the whole travel industry is on the verge of a total collapse. Carnival the cruise business just announced a $4.4 billion loss and the sale of 6 major cruise ships. Airlines and hotels are either going under or losing fortunes. Global tourism is a $5T market and with indirect support businesses making a $9.2T contribution to global GDP. Just imagine, here is an industry that represents 11% of global GDP that is hemorrhaging and will not recover in this decade at least.

Another example is the Swiss watch industry which is important to the country. It lost 81% of exports in April and 68% in May compared to 2019. Another sector which will never be the same.

  • Bad loans surging as companies and individuals can neither afford to pay interest or installments. In the US, it is estimated that no payments have been made on over 100 million loans.
  • Half of Americans consider selling their houses to survive financially. Most Americans don’t have savings to cover more than two weeks of spending.
  • Global printing presses are working 24/7 to save the world from perdition. Since CV started, the total fiscal and monetary stimulus so far is $18T.
  • The $18T stimulus could easily double. But “just” $18T is a massive 22.5% of global GDP.

The 6 biggest money manufactures are:

  1. US $6.5T,
  2. EU $3T,
  3. Japan $2.1T,
  4. China $1.2T,
  5. Italy $1.1T
  6. France $0.8T

The above list of problems is just an example of the global pressures on states, companies, and individuals that either are bankrupt or will collapse under the weight of their own debt in the next few years.

WHAT THE EFFECTS WILL BE

  • As I have already discussed in this article, there is no solution to a global debt problem in a world that is collectively bankrupt.
  • The $18T stimulus that has just been created is not real money. It is monopoly money that might be useful if you play the Monopoly board game but it has zero value in the real world. So throwing $18T of fake money at $275T global debt (which can’t be repaid either) might fool some people for a few weeks. It is certainly fooling retail stock investors who are being lured into the biggest suckers’ rally in history. They will soon have the shock of a lifetime.
  • Virtually all asset markets will collapse, including stocks and property. But the biggest devastation will be when bond and credit markets implode. When that happens the $2quadrillion derivative market will go up in smoke too with devastating consequences for the world.
  • Whether we finish with an explosion or implosion makes little difference to the end result. We could have a hyperinflationary explosion first, which I believe is more likely. But that would soon end in a depressionary and deflationary implosion. This will take the world back at least 50 years in production and trade terms and thus also in the standard of living. But before the decline stops, there will be massive financial and human suffering in the world, including social unrest and probably wars.
  • I was with one of my grandsons yesterday who wanted to photograph a peregrine falcon’s nest. These majestic birds can dive at 390km/h (240mph) to hit their prey which can be a pigeon for example. The poor pigeon doesn’t know what has hit him when the world’s fastest animal comes diving from above at 390km/h. If the economic bubble explodes as I have described above, the world will not know what has hit it either. It will all happen so fast.

WHAT WE SHOULD DO

Most people sadly cannot plan for what is coming. They don’t have any savings and might have problems affording to stay in their house or apartment.

For the ones with small savings, even if it is only a few hundred dollars, take it out of the bank and buy some silver or gold bars or coins. One gramme of gold costs $60-70. One gramme of silver costs 70 cents and an ounce of silver costs $20. Many people can afford that and what today looks like small investments could save your life in a few years. Just ask the Venezuelans.

For bigger investors, get out of stocks, except for gold and silver stocks, and get out of bonds and investment properties. On your own home, pay down the mortgage if you can.

And obviously, buy as much physical gold and silver that you can afford and store it outside the banking system.

Gold and silver will work effectively as wealth protection both in inflation and deflation.

In a period of crisis, your best asset and support system is a close circle of friends and family. This is what will keep you going physically, mentally, and morally. 

MARKETS

Stocks

The secular bull market in stocks ended in February 2020. We have now entered a secular and devastating bear market. The first leg down finished in mid-March and we are just finishing the suckers’ rally that makes retail investors uber-optimistic. The next leg down is imminent. It will shock the world. There could be a vicious catalyst.

Gold & Silver

The move up to $1,950 – $2,100 has started. We could see an acceleration starting soon. Once gold clears $2,000 much higher values are coming.

For most people who know and follow me, I hardly need to repeat that you mustn’t focus on the price of gold or silver measured in soon worthless paper currencies. Just own physical precious metals for insurance and wealth preservation.

Measured in overvalued paper money, gold and silver are absurdly cheap. 

end

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early THURSDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 7.0786/ GETTING VERY DANGEROUSLY PAST 7:1

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  7.0877   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 8.93 POINTS OR 0.30%

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 125.76 POINTS OR 0.50%

 

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 274.53 POINTS OR 1.22%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL MIXED/

 

 

 

USA dollar index UP TO 97.51/Euro FALLS TO 1.1198

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: RISES TO. +.02/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 107.36/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 37.40 and Brent: 39.80

3f Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE DOWN/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO -.47%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 1.30% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.46%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.77: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 1.29

3k Gold at $1759.25 silver at: 17.50   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 5/100 in roubles/dollar) 69.51

3m oil into the 37 dollar handle for WTI and 39 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 107.36 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9496 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0636 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to 0.47%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 0.67% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 1.41%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 6.8546.

Futures Accelerate Slide On “Second Wave” Fears Ahead Of Jobless Claims

US stock futures fell for a second straight day on Thursday following Wall Street’s worst day in two weeks, as risk appetite took a hit from an alarming rise in new coronavirus cases and on expectations of elevated weekly jobless claims, although futures rebounded from a sharp drop thanks to gains in large-cap tech shares following Europe’s open which dragged down the Emini as low as 3,005 before stabilizing above 3,030. Treasury yields dropped to 0.66% while the dollar rose for a second day.

As has become the norm in recent overnight sessions, Nasdaq 100 futures erased most of an earlier decline. Walt Disney slipped 1.4% in premarket trading after it delayed the reopening of theme parks due to the health crisis. Boeing fell 2.7% as Berenberg reduced its rating to “sell”, noting the planemaker’s near-term risks are elevated due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the pace of recovery in air travel and uncertainty related to production rates.

In Europe, stocks swung from a loss to a gain, with Deutsche Lufthansa rallying as its biggest shareholder backed a government rescue package. Meanwhile, the saga of German fintech Wirecard ended with the company filing for insolvency, sending its stock crashing over 80% to all time lows.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks fell the most in almost two weeks. China and Hong Kong were shut for holidays. Local markets suffered from spillover selling after the weakness seen in global counterparts as risk appetite took a hit from several fronts including the record COVID-19 infection rates in US, half-year end rebalancing which according to JPM is as much as $170BN in selling, and a US-EU tariff threat after reports of US targeting USD 3.1BN of exports from France, Germany, Spain and UK for new tariffs.

Growing fears that lockdowns will be reimposed and economies re-opened more slowly has hurt sentiment, as investors weigh reports of new daily records for infections in Texas, Florida and California. Meanwhile, Bloomberg reports that health leaders called on the U.K. to prepare for a possible second wave, and Australia recorded its largest spike in cases since April.

“The market really got the shivers over the prospect of a big increase in Covid and maybe starting to see places that were opening up have to close up,” Wells Fargo PM Margie Patel said on Bloomberg TV. “We’ve had such a great run from the end of March it’s only inevitable that we should get at least a little step back.”

Besides the pandemic, data due at 8:30 a.m. ET is expected to show about 1.32 million Americans signed up for unemployment benefits in the latest week. Although that figure is down from 1.5 million in the prior week, the pace of declines has slowed as weak demand forces U.S. employers to lay off workers.

In rates, Treasuries were higher led by long end, trimming yields in 20- to 30-year sector lower by nearly 2bp. Price action echoed the wider bull-flattening for the German curve, while gilts outperformed, sending U.K. five-year yields to a record low of minus 0.047% and the curve flattened, after some investors were caught out from bets on a steeper curve following last week’s Bank of England meeting. At the same time, 3M USD Libor rose by over 2bp, a headwind for front-end eurodollar futures. Today the Treasury auction cycle concludes with $41b 7-year note sale at 1pm ET; WI 7- year yield at ~0.51% is ~4bp richer than last month’s result and below April’s record low 0.525%.

In FX, the dollar traded mixed versus Group-of-10 peers after Antipodean and Scandinavian currencies swung from losses to gains as sentiment improved. The kiwi dollar led G-10 gains and outperformed its peer in Australia, where sentiment was hit by a surge in virus cases and job cuts at the national airline.

In commodities, West Texas crude oil fell below $38 a barrel, while gold pared an earlier gain.

Economic data include initial jobless claims, durable goods orders and the third print of first-quarter GDP. Nike is set to report earnings.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.4% to 3,036.75
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.1% to 357.59
  • MXAP down 1.1% to 158.82
  • MXAPJ down 0.8% to 515.49
  • Nikkei down 1.2% to 22,259.79
  • Topix down 1.2% to 1,561.85
  • Hang Seng Index down 0.5% to 24,781.58
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.3% to 2,979.55
  • Sensex up 0.2% to 34,933.13
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 2.5% to 5,817.68
  • Kospi down 2.3% to 2,112.37
  • German 10Y yield fell 1.4 bps to -0.454%
  • Euro down 0.1% to $1.1238
  • Brent Futures down 0.8% to $39.98/bbl
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 1.1 bps to 1.14%
  • Spanish 10Y yield unchanged at 0.468%
  • Brent Futures down 0.8% to $39.98/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.2% to $1,765.37
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.1% to 97.28

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • The U.S. economic recovery is showing incipient signs of weakening in some states where coronavirus cases are mounting. The ebbing is evident in such high-frequency data as OpenTable restaurant reservations and follows a big bounce in activity as businesses reopened from lockdowns meant to check the spread of Covid-19
  • Germany’s coronavirus infection rate fell to the lowest in almost three weeks, easing concerns that local outbreaks would prompt a resurgence of the pandemic
  • Germany’s constitutional court rejected a separate challenge against the European Central Bank’s 2015 Expanded Asset Purchase Program as inadmissible
  • The European Central Bank will set up a precautionary facility to provide euros to central banks outside the currency area to help ease any liquidity stress as a result of the coronavirus pandemic

Asian stocks suffered from spillover selling after the weakness seen in global counterparts as risk appetite took a hit from several fronts including the record COVID-19 infection rates in US, half-year end rebalancing and a US-EU tariff threat after reports of US targeting USD 3.1bln of exports from France, Germany, Spain and UK for new tariffs. ASX 200 (-2.5%) was led lower by underperformance in the energy sector due to lower oil prices and with hefty losses seen in travel stocks after Qantas announced several cost-cutting measures. Nikkei 225 (-1.2%) was pressured by the ill-effects of the predominantly firmer domestic currency and KOSPI (-2.3%) traded downbeat following South Korea’s announcement of a capital gains tax on stock trading from 2023, while trade for the region was also hindered by key holiday closures with mainland China, Hong Kong and Taiwan all closed for the Dragon Boat Festival. Finally, 10yr JGBs were flat as prices failed to take advantage of the risk averse tone, advances in T-notes and with the latest update showing the BoJ’s share of the JGB market increased to 44.2% as of end-March vs 43.7% Q/Q, with participants kept sidelined amid the 20yr auction in which nearly all metrics pointed to a weaker result.

Top Asian News

  • Philippines Surprises With Half-Point Rate Cut to Boost Economy
  • NTT Buys NEC Stake in Bid for Slice of Global 5G Gear Market
  • In Asia, Brands Built on Racist Stereotypes Face Scrutiny
  • Pandemic Gives Singapore Air Chance to Grab Emirates India Share

Price action for European stocks has been relatively choppy thus far with downside initially emanating from the soft leads presented by the US and APAC sessions as the COVID-19 case count in certain areas of the US continues to deteriorate. Stocks in Europe were presented some reprieve as the session progressed with not much in the way of standout fundamentals behind the move. Some have attributed part of the move to the ECB announcing a new Eurosystem repo facility to provide euro liquidity to non-euro area central banks, however, stocks were already gaining ahead of this announcement. Note, it is plausible that equities could struggle for direction in the first half of the session until COVID-19 case count data from the US is released mid-afternoon; something which has been a key source of price action over the past few days. From a sectoral standpoint, it is a relatively mixed picture thus far with some cyclical areas such as Autos and banks faring slightly better than peers, whilst the travel & leisure sector is a noteworthy underperformer. Despite stellar gains for Deutsche Lufthansa (+16.5%) following reports that shareholder Thiele (15.5% stake holder) said he will vote for the rescue package in today’s EGM, travel names have taken greater direction from easyJet (-5.6%) after the Co.’s latest earnings update in which the Co. also announced it is to launch a GBP 450mln rights issue. Wirecard (-79%) remain in focus with shares opening lower in the wake of the recent scandal   with the latest chapter in the saga seeing the Co. announce it has applied for insolvency proceedings – shares were halted at EUR 10.74 ahead of the announcement before slumping to EUR 2.50 upon resumption. On a more positive footing, albeit of best levels, Bayer (+1.4%) shares have been supported since the get-go after news the Co. will pay up to USD 10.9bln to settle a string of cancer claims linked to the Roundup weedkiller case. Finally, Royal Mail (-8.2%) shares are also seen lower this morning after post a decline in profits to GBP 180mln in the year to March 2020 which has subsequently forced the Co. to lower its headcount by 2,000.

Top European News

  • Top Lufthansa Investor Backs $10 Billion Bailout Before Key Vote
  • Some of U.K.’s Largest Retailers Withheld Quarterly Rent: Times
  • Royal Mail Cuts Management Jobs as Virus Hits Demand
  • Swedish Scientist Who Doubted Face Masks Reconsiders Their Use

In FX, the DXY Index holds onto yesterday’s gains above 97.000 but trades in a relatively tight 97.160-404 intraday band thus far as safe-haven demand keeps the broader Dollar propped up amid rising COVID cases across the US and other economies such as Germany, Japan, Australia and China heading into the half-year, quarter and month-end, while participants remain on the lookout for a follow-up to US tariff threat on the EU and UK. Looking ahead, the data-docket sees an abundance in Tier 1 data in the form of Durable Goods, Q1 GDP (F) and Initial Jobless Claims, albeit focus will likely remain on COVID-19 case counts State-side and abroad.

  • EUR, GBP – The Single-currency has trimmed losses against the Buck, but more so on USD-dynamics with little reaction seen to the improvement in Gfk consumer sentiment. Meanwhile, reports early-doors noted that the German Constitutional Court has rejected a separate case in regard to the ECB’s asset purchase programme, but details remain vague at the time of writing. This followed reports overnight that the ECB has agreed to provide the Bundesbank with documents on proportionality, as expected. Next up, the ECB’s accounts from the June meeting could provide some meat on the bone over the decision-making process on the PEPP ramp up to 1.35tln from 750bln. EUR/USD meanders around 1.1250 having had printed a current band at 1.225-60 with option expiries seeing a sizeable EUR 1.6bln at strike 1.1200, EUR 805mln at 1.1260 and almost EUR 1bln at 1.1300. Meanwhile, Cable continues to grind higher above its 50 DMA (1.2417), and resides around 1.2450 (ahead of its 10 and 21 DMAs both at 1.2488-89) with little by way of fresh fundamentals ahead of remarks from BoE’s Haldane – who voted against the BoE’s QE ramp up last week. Thus, EUR/GBP trickles lower towards the 0.9000 mark, with short-term support seen around the 0.9014-18 ahead (lows over the last three trading sessions).
  • AUD, NZD, CAD – All firmer against the USD, albeit to different degrees with the Kiwi the marked outperformer as it consolidates from its post-RBNZ losses despite a relatively lacklustre May trade balance release overnight. NZD/USD however, remains sub-0.6450 with its 10 DMA at around the psychological level. AUD/USD moves in tandem with the Dollar as price action remains contained within a 30-pip range (0.6848-84), whilst upside technicals see the 100 WMA situated at 0.6909. The Loonie fails to reap the same benefits as its high-beta peers as gains remain somewhat hampered from a sovereign downgrade at Fitch (AA+ from AAA-; outlook Stable). USD/CAD holds onto a 1.3600 handle but resides around session lows (1.3620) amid an attempted recovery in the energy markets.
  • JPY – Safe havens trade choppy within tight ranges as the pairs track sentiment and price action in stocks. USD/JPY keeps its 107.00 handle having had dipped below the figure overnight, with its 50 DMA at 107.39.

In fixed Income, core bonds initially began the European session somewhat softer, after a comparatively uneventful overnight session where they were subject to a grinding bid as sentiment remained subdued following yesterday’s stock pullback. Interestingly, even given the strong risk-off trade seen yesterday the UST yield curve only saw modest bull-flattening, with similar price action being seen currently and as such expanding on yesterday’s action; for instance, today’s UST 10yr yield low stands at 0.6630% just below yesterday’s 0.6760% floor. On this, desks have highlighted that US steepeners are, given additional pressures from supply and inflation, seen to be outperforming their European peers ahead; with some option premium measures having surpassed pre-COVID levels – potentially explaining some of the recent magnitude discrepancies. European hours have seen pronounced choppiness across the debt complex, as well as markets more broadly, with initial bond upside derived around the EU equity cash open and just before, but seemingly unrelated to, reports the GCC have rejected a separate case regarding ECB QE; note, details on this headline are still very vague and on the subject attention is on today’s ECB minutes. Nonetheless, at the time Bunds sharply retreated and BTPs saw a firm bid; albeit, both moves were within session ranges failing to test the sessions low/high of 176.09 and 143.80 respectively and ultimately pared back. Since then, while debt has been subject to periods of choppiness as sentiment in general struggles to find direction, we are overall marginally firmer on the day for core counterparts but seemingly capped by the session’s ranges. In terms of focus for the session ahead, we do have the aforementioned ECB minutes alongside a number of central bank speakers and US data – but focus will likely remain on the COVID-19 count and particularly updates from the key US states of Florida, NY and Texas.

In commodities, choppy trade in the crude complex as price action is predominently dicatated by market sentiment in which the downbeat APAC session saw WTI and Brent August contracts relinquish the USD 38/bbl and USD 40/bbl level respectively. However, amid an improvement in broader sentiment as European trade is underway, the benchmarks have rebounded off lows of USD 37.13/bbl and USD 39.50/bbl respectively, with the latter reclaiming USD 40/bbl to the upside. News-flow has been light for the complex but price action is likely to be influenced by COVID-19 developments ahead of Tier 1 US data. Elsewhere, spot gold remains relatively steady around USD 1765/oz within today’s range despite the whipsaws seen cross-market, with initiall impetus derived as European players entered the markets to a softer APAC session. Copper trades with modest gains as the red metal retraced earlier downside amid a recovery in stocks, but price action remains contained within recent ranges.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: GDP Annualized QoQ, est. -5.0%, prior -5.0%; Core PCE QoQ, est. 1.6%, prior 1.6%
    • 8:30am: Personal Consumption, est. -6.8%, prior -6.8%
  • 8:30am: Advance Goods Trade Balance, est. $68.1b deficit, prior $69.7b deficit
  • 8:30am: Retail Inventories MoM, est. -2.8%, prior -3.6%; Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 0.4%, prior 0.3%
  • 8:30am: Durable Goods Orders, est. 10.45%, prior -17.7%; Durables Ex Transportation, est. 2.1%, prior -7.7%
    • 8:30am: Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, est. 1.0%, prior -6.1%; Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, est. -1.0%, prior -5.7%
  • 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, est. 1.32m, prior 1.51m; Continuing Claims, est. 20m, prior 20.5m
  • 11am: Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity, est. -3, prior -19

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

I’ve got the rest of the day off today as the golf course I’m a member of opposite my house is hosting a charity pro-am. So I’ll be playing with a touring pro and they’ll be competing for a healthy prize. So the big question on everyone’s lips at the golf club last night as I went to the range to try to limit my embarrassment today was who they’ll be playing with. Yes the pros were all wondering which of them will be playing with the author of the EMR. Lucky them. Sky Sports News have their cameras here at Worplesdon all day so there’s the outside chance you’ll see my dodgy swing on the bulletins. Without much live sport at the moment they have a lot of airtime to fill. I’ll have mixed feelings if Liverpool win the league tonight for the first time in 30 years and it bumps my pro-am appearance off the sports news.

The business channels have had no such problems filling air time over the last few months and they will again have plenty to discuss today. A plethora of bad news about the virus led to a major sell-off in risk assets yesterday as volatility returned to financial markets once again. It wasn’t a single bad headline that led to the plunge, but a drip-feed of negative stories that all combined to show increasing signs of a deteriorating situation on the virus, most obviously in the US. In terms of the news there, Florida (the 3rd most populous US state) saw its number of Covid-19 cases rise by 5.3% yesterday, some way above the previous 7-day average of 3.7%, and the number of hospitalisations rose by 256 in the state, the largest increase in a month. California also saw a record jump in cases, with over 8800 new ones yesterday. This equated to a 4.8% rise – notably above the 2.5% average daily rise over the last week. Covid-19 ICU cases have risen 18% in the last 2 weeks according to the state, but the rate of fatalities has thankfully not picked up in recent days. This could be still to come, but perhaps it is a sign that hospitals have gotten better at treating the virus now that we are further into the pandemic and maybe that the average age of new cases has fallen. In the pdf today (click “view report”) we show graphs of 7 day rolling cases against 7 day rolling fatalities with a lag of 7 days for the 4 troubled US states and also the US overall, alongside NY and Germany. These last three are included to show the correlation earlier in this pandemic and how it might be changing. We say might because the graphs show we’re at a critical point where fatalities should be going up. However there is evidence from the US overall and the four states that this isn’t happening to the same degree it did in other parts of the world in March and early April. An important few days ahead then. Note that the pdf also includes the usual case and fatality tables.

Meanwhile, in what represents a notable reversal from earlier in the pandemic, the three states of New York, New Jersey and Connecticut are going to order visitors coming from virus hotspots to quarantine for 14 days. Texas was one of the states that originally ordered those restrictions on Northeastern states. And yet yesterday the 2nd most populous state in the US had news come through from Houston that intensive-care units were currently at 97% capacity and are likely to exceed tomorrow. With the state as a whole right up to its limit of ICU beds, Texas Medical Center is currently projecting that they will access their surge capacity starting this week. They are also likely to surpass that capacity (887 surge ICU beds) in about two weeks if current virus trends continue. The rise in Texan cases yesterday was followed by headlines that Apple was moving to close seven stores in the Houston area, with 18 stores now closed nationwide following their reopening. Overall the US saw cases rise by 1.6%, above the 1.3% average daily rise over the last week, while the number of new cases per week is now approaching the highs of the pandemic. See our US economists piece last night (link here) that suggests states with faster case growth are now underperforming economically based on measures of small business activity, restaurant bookings and consumer spending particularly in the southern states already mentioned.

Looking at the market reaction, these revived concerns about the virus saw equity markets lose substantial ground yesterday, a move that more than erased Tuesday’s gains. Looking at the major indices, the S&P 500 was down -2.59% (-3.17% at the intra-day lows), with energy stocks leading the decline on the back of plunging oil prices. It was the worst daily performance for the index since June 11th (-5.89%) and the second worst since May 1st (-2.81%). Elsewhere the NASDAQ snapped a run of 8 successive gains to fall by -2.19%, down from its fresh record the previous day. Over in Europe the picture was somewhat worse with all the major indices closing at their lows of the day and missing the small bounce that US assets saw late in their session. The STOXX 600 was down -2.78% as energy similarly led the declines with the DAX (-3.43%), CAC 40 (-2.92%) and the FTSE 100 (-3.11%) also falling back. The selloff in Europe and the US was incredibly broad with only about 3.5% of stocks in each of the S&P 500 and STOXX 600 up on the day.

While the moves haven’t been quite as severe, Asian markets are lower this morning too with the Nikkei (-1.23%), Kospi (-1.82%) and ASX (-1.62%) all down. Markets in Hong Kong and China are closed for a holiday. In FX, the US dollar index is up another +0.18% building up on yesterday’s gains. Yields on 10y USTs are down a further -1bp overnight to 0.670% while futures on the S&P 500 are down -0.52%.

In overnight news, the Pentagon has put up a list of 20 Chinese companies that it says are owned or controlled by China’s military, opening them up to potential additional US sanctions. The list includes Huawei Technologies Co. and Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co. amongst others.

In terms of those other moves yesterday, oil lost ground as mentioned earlier with Brent crude down -5.44% to $40.31/bbl. Unsurprisingly, oil-producing currencies underperformed in response, as both the Norwegian krone (-1.53% vs. USD) and the Russian ruble (-1.03%) weakened. The US dollar had a fairly strong performance however, up +0.52% in its best day in over a week. Over in fixed income, sovereign bond markets see-sawed as they oscillated between gains and losses through the session. By the close, core bond yields had moved lower, with those on 10yr Treasuries and bunds down -3.3bps and -3.2bps respectively. BTPs underperformed however, coming off their nearly 3-month lows with a +1.1bps increase.

Staying with Europe, this week our Economist team published a report titled ‘Bank credit, economic growth and the COVID shock: an adjusted perspective’ . Watch a new video with Mark Wall, Chief Economist, EMEA (link here to the video and report) where he explains that the focus of the note is on bank credit in the euro area – on its surprising, and misleading, strength during the COVID shock and where it is likely to go next.

Keeping on the economic theme, the mood was dampened further yesterday by updated forecasts from the IMF, who downgraded their outlook for the global economy compared with their April forecasts. They now see the world economy undergoing a -4.9% contraction this year (vs. -3.0% previously), before growing by +5.4% in 2021 (vs. +5.8% previously). The downgrades were seen in both advanced as well as emerging market and developing economies, while their projections for the volume of global trade sees a decline of -11.9% this year.

In other news, with just over 4 months to go now until the US election, a New York Times/Siena College poll out yesterday gave Joe Biden a 50%-36% advantage over President Trump. This is but the latest in a pattern evident for some weeks now of a widening lead for Biden. FiveThirtyEight’s polling average now puts him +9.3% ahead of Trump. This has been reflected on the betting and prediction markets too, with Biden now the favourite there as well. It’s also worth noting that Trump’s approval rating at this point in his term is below that of his 3 immediate predecessors who went on to win re-election.

Staying on politics, and yesterday we had a statement from the Elysee that President Macron and Chancellor Merkel would be meeting on Monday, with the EU budget and the recovery fund on the agenda. Remember that this comes ahead of another EU leader’s summit on the 17-18th July, where the 27 leaders will meet in person in Brussels to hold further discussions on the recovery fund. That said, there’s still substantial differences between the different member states on this, particularly with the so-called Frugal Four, and any final agreement will require unanimity between the member states. On a side note however, Euro Area inflation expectations rose to their highest level since early March yesterday, with five-year forward five-year inflation swaps closing above 1.10% for the first time since then.

Looking at yesterday’s data releases, the main highlight was the Ifo business climate indicator from Germany, which rose to 86.2 in June (vs. 85.0 expected), up from a revised 79.7 in May. Nevertheless, this is still some way from the 95.9 reading in February before the economic impact of the pandemic hit. Otherwise, the FHFA US house price index rose by +0.2% in April (vs. +0.3% expected).

To the day ahead now, and data releases include the weekly initial jobless claims data from the US, as well as the third reading of Q1 GDP. In addition, there’ll be the preliminary data on durable goods orders and wholesale inventories for May. From central banks, the ECB will be releasing the account of their June monetary policy meeting, and speakers include the ECB’s Schnabel, Mersch and Knot, the Fed’s Bostic and Kaplan, along with the BoE’s Haldane. There’ll also be monetary policy decisions from central banks in Turkey and Mexico.

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)THURSDAY MORNING/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 8.93 POINTS OR 0.30%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 125.76 POINTS OR 0.50%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 274.53 POINTS OR 1.2%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 2.53%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 7.0782 /Oil DOWN TO 37.40 dollars per barrel for WTI and 39.80 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.0782 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0877 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY PAST 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED//CORONAVIRUS/PANDEMIC/  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 C CHINA

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

SPAIN

a good look at Spain’s outlook after its devastating virus attack:

(Nick Corbishley/WolfStreet)

“All About Damage Control” – As Spain Lifts Lockdown, The Crisis Begins For Tourism Industry

Authored by Nick Corbishley via WolfStreet.com,

Yesterday, my wife and I took our first walk to the beach since Spain entered lockdown almost three and a half months ago. From there, we meandered through El Born, which together with Sant Pere and Santa Caterina, forms one of the four barrios that make up Barcelona’s old town. El Born’s shaded cobbled streets and plazas are — or at least were — ground-zero for Barcelona’s bustling tourism trade. But that trade has been decimated by the virus crisis, and the streets of El Born are half empty, many of the hotels are still closed and an eerie quiet pervades the once-thronged plazas.

In some parts, there are already visible signs of crisis. As in the darkest days of Spain’s last housing crisis (2010-13), boarded-up shops, bars, restaurants and other street-level businesses are everywhere. In one narrow three-block street called Flassaders, I counted nine shuttered businesses. Eight were already up for rent. Here are some samples:

Spain’s biggest property website, Idealista, is currently advertising 244 retail properties in El Born, Sant Pere and Santa Caterina. They range from tiny little shops on tucked-away alleyways to sprawling bars, restaurants and stores on some of the barrio’s busiest thoroughfares.

After years of relentless gentrification, El Born was already in trouble before Covid arrived. Retail rents had reached levels that many businesses could no longer pay. Petty street crime, much of it targeting tourists, had become rampant, and in some cases violent. And many tourists had begun to explore other neighborhoods such as Gracia and Sant Antoni. The only way for shops and other businesses to pay their rents and still survive was to target big-spending foreign tourists. But now they’ve gone. And when they come back, it will be in smaller numbers and shallower pockets.

Facing the prospect of continued sluggish sales, many local traders in El Born, rather than taking out more debt to pay their rents, have simply shut up shop. Yet despite the glut of properties on the market, the rents being advertised are still absurdly high, suggesting that many of the property owners — most of them well-heeled local families — haven’t quite accepted that market conditions have changed dramatically.

In Spain’s last financial crisis, El Born, and Barcelona’s Gothic Quarter as a whole, escaped the worst of the fallout, thanks to the rapid recovery and resurgence of the tourism industry. This time, it’s the travel and tourism industries that have been sledgehammered by the covid-inspired lockdowns, travel bans and other restrictions, leaving barrios like El Borne and Sant Pere on the front lines of this new crisis.

According to Barcelona Comerç, 91% of the city center’s shops have reopened. In a recent survey, around half of the association’s members said their sales have fallen by up to 25% while another a quarter said that sales had dropped by 50%.

So far, just over 3% of local traders in the city center have shut their stores, but this is likely to soar to 15% soon, since many stores have only stayed open to liquidate their stock. And “this figure could rise to 30% if structural measures are not taken to help the sector out,” says Barcelona Commerc’s president, Salva Vendrell.

The Spanish government has so far offered €4.25 billion in financial assistance to Spain’s tourism industry, mostly in the form of emergency loans. It pales in comparison to the €43 billion in forgone tourist euros already clocked up as a result of the crisis.

And the tourists have still not arrived.

On any normal Summer’s day, in any normal year, Barceloneta Beach, normally one of Europe’s busiest beaches, would be heaving with tourists — so much so that most Barcelona residents stay clear of the place. But this year is no normal year. I took this photo a couple of days ago:

Also, the day on which the photo was taken — June 23 — was no normal day. It was the eve of Saint John the Baptist Day, which is a public holiday in Catalonia. Normally, in the evening tens of thousands of Barcelona residents converge on the city’s beaches to usher in the Summer by downing copious volumes of alcohol, sitting around bonfires and letting off fireworks and firecrackers with the sort of reckless abandon that bureaucrats in Brussels are determined to stamp out.

This year, thanks to the novel coronavirus, the city’s beaches were closed to the public. So, many people arranged to spend the holiday in beach towns dotted up and down the coast, hopefully not taking the coronavirus with them. This partly explains why the streets of Barceloneta looked like this yesterday:

But there’s also the fact that Barcelona, like so many other parts of Europe, is suffering its worst ever tourism drought. With its borders tightly sealed, Spain registered zero tourist arrivals in April. In May, it received about 43,000 visitors, down 99.5% from last year.

In seven days’ time, the Spanish government will finally reopen Spain’s borders to international tourism. But travelers from 54 nations, including the U.S., Russia and Brazil, will probably still be barred from the bloc. And cruise ships will be banned from docking at Spanish ports for at least the whole of the summer.

Of the remaining nationalities that can travel to Europe, no one knows just how many will actually come. Some of the business owners I’ve spoken to are not exactly optimistic.

“We’ll be lucky if we get half the normal number in July and August,” says the owner of a small cafe in Barceloneta that specializes in fine cakes and sandwiches. This summer, she says, is now “all about damage control.”

Many Catalan business owners are hoping the domestic market will pick up some of the slack. But they’re not holding their breath. Despite the charm offensive being launched on all fronts by Catalonia’s regional government to try and lure holiday makers from other parts of Spain, with the slogan “Cataluña es tu casa” (Catalonia is your home), Catalan businesses know that most Spaniards still remember that roughly half of the people of Catalonia wanted to declare independence from Spain just three years ago. Those Spaniards who still hold a grudge will choose to spend their vacation bucks elsewhere.

That means that Barcelona — and many places like it in Europe — is about to have its quietest summer for many a year.

For many local residents who have had to put up with all the externalities of unfettered mass-tourism (myself included), it will probably make a welcome change. But for those whose jobs, businesses and rental income depend on tourism, the pain has only just begun. And it’s likely to end up affecting even those who are currently enjoying the idyllic — yet still slightly eerie — sight of quiet streets and empty beaches.

*  *  *

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end

GERMANY//WIRECARD

Wirecard files for insolvency proceedings

(zerohedge)

Wirecard Shares Plummet 80% After Company Files For Insolvency Proceedings

German payments company Wirecard filed for insolvency proceedings on Thursday, one week after auditors refused to sign off on accounts due to a $2.1 billion financial hole, reported Reuters.

A statement from the company warned about over-indebtedness as the primary reason behind applying for insolvency in Munich, Germany. There’s also a consideration by Wirecard management to apply insolvency proceedings to its subsidiaries.

  • MANAGEMENT BOARD OF WIRECARD AG HAS DECIDED TODAY TO FILE AN APPLICATION FOR OPENING OF INSOLVENCY PROCEEDINGS FOR WIRECARD AG WITH COMPETENT DISTRICT COURT OF MUNICH (AMTSGERICHT MÜNCHEN) DUE TO IMPENDING INSOLVENCY AND OVER-INDEBTEDNESS.
  •  WIRECARD AG – IT IS CURRENTLY EVALUATED WHETHER INSOLVENCY APPLICATIONS HAVE TO BE FILED FOR SUBSIDIARIES OF WIRECARD GROUP.

Wirecard shares trading on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange plunged by more than 80% Thursday morning. They have lost more than 96% on a year-to-date basis. Most of the losses began last week when Ernst & Young refused to sign off on 2019 accounts, which then resulted in the resignation and arrest of CEO Markus Braun.

The quick death of Wirecard 

With shares suspended in Frankfurt –  500 million euros of bonds due 2024 fell to a record low of around 10-12 cents.

The German-based payments company collapsed about two years after it joined Germany’s DAX blue-chip index. Before whistleblowers exposed the company for fraud in early 2019 – the company had a peak value of $28 billion.

The collapse of Wirecard is an embarrassment for Germany and regulators who failed to investigate what appears to be one of the country’s worst-ever accounting scandals.

“The Wirecard scandal did not come out of the blue,” said Florian Toncar, a member of parliament for the business-friendly FDP. “It’s a mystery to me why the finance minister and BaFin did not shed light on the matter much earlier.”

The Munich prosecutor’s office said: “We will now look at all possible criminal offenses” for Braun.

The next big question for Wirecard is that if it can retain licenses with Visa, Mastercard, and JCB International, through which the company’s banking segment issues credit cards. If the $2.1 billion is not found – credit card companies could revoke the company’s licenses.

end
GERMANY/USA
Trump continues his anger at NATO allies especially Germany. Trump claims Germany owes one trillion dollars in NATO oligations
(zerohedge)

Trump Claims Germany Owes $1 Trillion In NATO Obligations

President Trump lashed out at “delinquent” NATO members as he again called on all members of the transatlantic alliance  – particularly Germany –  to spend 2% of GDP on defense spending. Speaking at a joint press conference with Polish president Andrzej Duda at the White House, Trump asserted that Poland was one of eight European NATO members to meet its financial commitments to the alliance, according to the Irish Times.

“The United States is defending a lot of countries that are delinquent in what they are supposed to be paying,” the president said. Confirming that the US would be withdrawing troops from Germany, Trump claimed that Germany owed “close to a trillion dollars” to Nato “when you add it all up.”

While he claimed that the US had secured an extra $400 billion in new spending from NATO members, he said “we will be only satisfied when all members are paying their fair share”.

“The United States is the major participant [in Nato],” he said. “We defend Europe, but Europe also takes tremendous advantage of the United States on trade – advantage like you wouldn’t believe.”

Trump also confirmed that the US would “probably” going to be sending troops to Poland from Germany, noting that the number of US military personnel in Germany would reduce from 52,000 to 25,000, as previously reported . “Some will be coming home, some will be going to other places in Europe. Poland will be one of the places,” he said. He added that Poland would be paying for the troops to be stationed there, while he also praised Poland for the purchase of 32 F35 fighter jets.

 

Duda and Trump.

Trump’s comments came after Duda told reporters he had asked the US not to remove troops from Europe at all, arguing that their presence was needed to guarantee security for Poland and other nations against the threat of “Russian aggression.” The US has had a military presence in Germany since the end of WWII and while talks with Poland about a permanent US base there have not been successful, Duda has been keen for an additional US military presence on a rotational basis.

Moscow has denounced Poland’s calls for US presence as irresponsible, and the country’s new security strategy claiming a threat from Russia as “propagandist” and fictitious. “Whatever military potentially ends up threatening us from Polish territory,” Deputy Foreign Minister Vladimir Titov told RIA Novosti earlier this month, Russia “will take comprehensive measures in response.”

President Duda, who faces an election on Sunday, was the first foreign leader to meet Trump at the White House since Taoiseach Leo Varadkar’s visit in March. It is his fifth meeting with the US president. Trump praised Poland’s protection of its borders, and “vigilant efforts to uphold the rule of law”, an issue that has provoked fury in Brussels as Poland’s right-wing government has pushed through a series of laws its has deemed “anti-democratic.” Trump also predicted that Duda would do very well in the election.

“He’s doing a terrific job. The people of Poland think the world of him…I don’t think he needs my help. He will do very well with or without us. He’s going to have a great success.”

Asked about the possibility of further police reform in the wake of George Floyd’s death after Democrats blocked legislation put forward by the Republican-controlled Senate this week, Trump accused Democrats of wanting to defund the police.

“The Democrats want to weaken our police, take away our community….they want to take away a lot of strength from our police and law enforcement generally. We won’t do anything that’s going to hurt our police.”

Trump then pledged to issue an executive order on statues before the end of the week, although he said there were “very strong laws already on the books” which can lead to prison sentences of 10 years for those who desecrate monuments.

“Many people who are knocking down the statues don’t have any idea who the statue is….now they’re looking at Jesus Christ, they’re looking at George Washington, Abraham Lincoln, Thomas Jefferson. Not going to happen while I’m here.”

Earlier, during a meeting with Duda in the Oval Office, Trump accused the Obama administration of spying on his 2016 election campaign as he welcomed a court ruling ordering the dismissal of a case against his former national security adviser Michael Flynn. “What happened to General Flynn should never happen again,” Mr Trump said. “He was treated horribly by a group of very bad people.”

end

GERMANY/POLAND USA TROOPS/

Trump ready to relocate 9500 USA troops stationed in Germany to Poland.  Also lots of fighter plans will be lifted to Poland as well.

(Mish Shedlock/Mishtalk)

US Military Shuffle From Germany To Poland Is Imminent

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,

Trump is relocating 9500 US troop and lots of fighter planes from Germany to Poland.

Troop Movements on the German-Polish Border

In a tongue-in-cheek headline Eurointelligence reports Troop Movements on the German-Polish Border.

We couldn’t quite resist this headline, but it looks that a relocation of 9500 US troops from Germany to Poland is imminent.

Polish Media Details

  • a new contingent of US troops, some from Germany and some from the US;
  • a relocation of 30 F-16 US fighter planes from Germany to Poland;
  • the headquarters of the V corps of the US army to be moved from Fort Knox to Poland;
  • adding 5 C-130 Hercules military transport aircraft, not clear whether this is a purchase or a relocation;
  • a deal on attack helicopters;
  • a bilateral defence co-operation act between the US and Poland.

Robert O’Brien, the White House national security adviser admits openly that this decision is linked to Germany’s failure to meet the promise of raising defence spending to 2% of GDP by 2024, which is a Nato commitment. He writes that Germany is the world’s fourth largest economy, yet spends only 1.4% of its GDP on defence.

O’Brien also makes a link to the Nord Stream 2 pipeline project, and to Berlin’s choice of 5G telecoms provider. If this goes to Huawei, as we expect it might, the relationship with the US is set to deteriorate further.

Trump Pulls Troops From Germany, It’s a Good Start

On June 7 I commented Trump Pulls Troops From Germany, It’s a Good Start.

No Start at All

I was mistaken. This is not a start, no troops are coming home. 

I am in favor of moving the troops, not from Germany to Poland, but from anywhere and everywhere back to the US.

If the EU is concerned about Russia enough to have troops, let the EU fund the troops.

Trump Shuffleboard

Instead, of bringing the troops home, Trump is playing troop shuffleboard. 

The US cannot afford to be the world’s policeman and should not try.

Phooey.

end

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

 

6.Global Issues

Michael Every..

global events that we must be watchful of…

(Michael Every)

Rabobank: Suddenly The Virus Matters Again

Submitted by Michael Every of Rabobank

Suddenly the virus matters again. Or so it would seem, with stock markets discovering that, yes, they too can go down – as US infection numbers continue to go up and up. True, so far the mortality rates are remaining far lower in places like Texas than they were in New York – but reports underline that if you catch Covid-19 and recover it can still mean long-lasting or perhaps permanent lung or neurological damage: this is still NOT a ‘flu. The Fed’s Evans concurs that opening up too fast can worsen new spikes in infections. Indeed, while there is an obvious imperative to try to get back to normal, if the virus itself becomes normal within the population then there will never be a return to previous economic normalcy. We are all still hanging our hopes on a vaccine, which is where we have been since day one.

Let’s see how the UK fares as it is about to bravely re-open on 4 July with a 1-metre rule. That’s odd symbolism given it is a Sunday, so 3 July would have been more logical – but then when has logic played much of a role in anything on the UK Covid front so far? Indeed, the much-heralded 1-metre rule also doesn’t mean much: Bloomberg quotes a restaurant owner today saying they will still struggle to make any money with that kind of gap between seats as covers will fall from 30 to 18, or 25 at best if they invest in new tables. This has been blindingly obvious to some of us for some time. Of course, with a mini-heatwave yesterday seeing British beaches packed like sardines with young revellers ignoring social-distancing rules, why are we worrying about 1 metre at all? One wonders what the virus infection numbers will look like a week or two from now.

In the US, New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut are telling visitors from states with high infection rates to self-quarantine for 14 days if they come to visit – which means no business travel is possible. And for a real US bellwether, Disneyland is delaying its scheduled 17 July re-opening with no new date clear so far. A case of “Catch and Mouse”.

In Europe things do not seem set for a normal sunny summer, meaning that the slew of businesses which rely on those summer Euros are likely to be without any cash buffer for a long, lean winter; indeed, France’s Macron is now outlining a plan for the state to cover much of the cost of a furloughed worker for as long as two years, if needed.

The IMF underline that with escalating global infections, signs that opening up is then followed by repeated partial lock-downs, and voluntary ones from consumers, the growth outlook is even worse than it was a few months ago – not better. Global growth is seen a staggering -4.9% y/y in 2020, down from -3% expected back in April when the virus was at its peak in Europe and the UK. Growth is also now only seen bouncing 5.4% in 2021, down from 5.8% – which means basically little increase in output over the two-year period. Moreover, the likelihood is that from 2022 onwards we then see retain a very weak growth backdrop due to a legacy of higher unemployment, debt, and what may be permanent structural changes to the economy.

That rare risk-off backdrop sees the USD more on the front foot and bond yields lower to match stocks. Will it last? I am sure a central banker somewhere will say something reassuring that will see markets continue on in their own sweet path as we all slide into Japanification and de facto central planning without a plan. Yet some people do have a plan – and it is not one markets will like much:

  • The US will impose USD3.1bn of tariffs on EU exports, including yoghurt, cheese (oh, the humanity!), olives, and aircraft: we can naturally expect an EU response in kind.
  • India plans to impose “stringent quality control measures” (i.e., non-tariff barriers) and higher tariffs on Chinese exports of chemicals, steel, consumer electronics, heavy machinery, furniture, paper, industrial machinery, rubber articles, glass, metal, pharma, and fertilizers. They forgot the kitchen sink – unless that is included and I missed it. India is for the moment heavily reliant on said imports – but with the right incentives it can be cost-effective to produce at home, or buy from others. Chinese shipments are already being held up for extra inspection, says Reuters.
  • The Pentagon has just produced a list of 20 Chinese firms that it says work with the Chinese military and hence need to be subject to restrictions – including Huawei. The pushback on that tech front is seeing significant successes: Singapore has just opted not to use Huawei for its 5G network, following key Western economies – and now India too.

Perhaps the only positive for markets in terms of geopolitics is that the White House has asked a China hawk to delay legislation with strong bipartisan backing in Congress, which would impose mandatory sanctions on individuals, firms, and *banks* on China over its treatment of Hong Kong. The administration wants to make “technical” corrections to the bill before it passes. Does this mean the US is blinking and won’t use the USD ‘nuclear option’? Possibly. At the same time, if the bill passes the US has NO option other than that nuke. This is still a key development to monitor – and within days said Hong Kong national security legislation will be passed in Beijing. It’s all going to remain very cat and mouse.

end

7. OIL ISSUES

Natural Gas is now nearing a 25 year low as so far the summer heat fails to materialize and oversupplied conditions are upon us

(zerohedge)

NatGas Nears 25-Year Low As Summer Heat Fails To Materialize And Oversupplied Conditions Persist 

NatGas prices near a 25-year low on Thursday morning as the summer heat has yet to materialize, and oversupplied conditions persist.

August NatGas futures slid 2% to 1.612 MMBtu on Thursday morning, weighed down by the lack of heat-driven demand and continued LNG weakness.

The summer heat has taken hold across most of the Lower 48, leading to stronger power burns. But futures markets have looked for indications of extreme temperatures to drive lofty cooling demand and offset the shocks of the coronavirus pandemic and the global recession it induced.

Weather models have, so far this week, instead produced modestly cooler outlooks than what forecasters had projected over last weekend, leaving markets to focus on simmering LNG challenges and the effects of overall demand destruction inflicted by the pandemic despite governments lifting restrictions on businesses and consumers.

“After cooler trends the past few days for early next week, the data was back a little hotter, but still with several weather systems preventing impressive or widespread heat,” NatGasWeather said in a Wednesday afternoon forecast. Data also “trended cooler for the Fourth of July weekend” with weather systems over the eastern U.S. set to prevent upper high pressure “from getting quite as strong as previous runs.” – Reuters Commodity Desk 

US Lower 48 – 45-day cooling degree day 

A NatGas analysis of Bloomberg data showed gas production increased over 87 Bcf/d this week amid reports of production returning as oil drilling resumed. The data also showed the U.S. crude production hit 10.5 million b/d on June 12, has since rebounded to 11.0 million b/d on June 19. The all-time-high in production was reached on March 13 at 13.1 million b/d. The virus-related downturn in the economy has led to a collapse in energy product demand, resulting in a historic drop in oil rigs shuttering operations.

As for LNG exports, here’s what Reuters said:

At the same time, LNG export levels hover near 4.0 Bcf/d, up from recent lows but still soft, as demand from formerly reliable destinations in Europe and Asia remains anemic due to slow economic recoveries and modest industrial energy needs. The threat of a virus resurgence also weighs on demand. In the United States, the rate of increases in Covid-19 cases has accelerated in June amid the reopening of local economies, with several states, including Texas and Arizona, reporting daily record highs this month, according to Johns Hopkins University data.

“While further progress on treatments and vaccines for Covid-19 could lead to added confidence on lifting of lockdowns … these are unpredictable times,” shipbroker Fearnleys AS said. As such, LNG sentiment remains “flat.”

Expectations for today’s U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) NatGas report will likely result in continued builds for the week ending June 19.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Thursday is set to issue its storage report for the week ended June 19. A Bloomberg poll found injection estimates ranging from 100 Bcf to 114 Bcf, with a median of 108 Bcf. A Wall Street Journal survey produced an average build expectation of 105 Bcf, while a Reuters survey of 17 analysts produced a 90 Bcf to 115 Bcf injection range and a median 106 Bcf injection. NGI estimated a 116 Bcf build. – Reuters 

To offset coronavirus demand loss – extreme heat in the US Lower 48 is needed this summer- if that doesn’t happen – NatGas prices will continue moving lower.

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

BRAZIL

These guys are in a mess as the coronavirus devastates their economy

(zerohedge)

Brazil central bank cuts 2020 GDP forecast to -6.4%, warns of uncertain recovery

BRASILIA, June 25 (Reuters) – Brazil’s central bank on Thursday slashed its 2020 economic growth forecast to minus 6.4% from zero due to the COVID-19 crisis, and warned that uncertainty surrounding the pace of recovery in the second half of this year remains unusually high.

In its quarterly inflation report, the central bank repeated its view from last week’s policy meeting, when it cut interest rates by 75 basis points to a record low of 2.25%, that room for further policy stimulus was small.

The central bank said its dramatic downward revision was largely due to the spread and severity of the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil, which now has the world’s second highest number of confirmed cases and deaths behind the United States.

The economy is expected to recover in the second half of the year, but only gradually.

“Daily and weekly data suggest that activity reached its lowest level in April, with only a partial recovery in May and June,” the central bank said.

“The level of uncertainty about the pace of economic recovery throughout the second half of this year remains higher than normal,” it added.

A gross domestic product slump of 6.4% is in line with market consensus and steeper than the government’s -4.7% forecast. The International Monetary Fund on Wednesday slashed its 2020 GDP outlook to -9.1% from -5.3%.

Inflation is still on track to undershoot its 2020 and 2021 targets of 4.0% and 3.75%, respectively, according to models using a mix of interest and exchange rate variables, the central bank said.

In four scenarios outlined the report, 2020 projections varied from 1.9% to 2.4%, and the range for next year was from 3% to 3.2%.

Among its key economic revisions, the central bank now sees industry contracting by 8.5% instead of shrinking 0.5% as predicted three months ago,

Fixed business investment is expected to shrink by 13.8% instead of 1.1%, and services, which accounts for two-thirds of all activity, is expected to contract 5.3%.

-END-

 

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings THURSDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1195 DOWN .0055 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS//CORONAVIRUS/PANDEMIC /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /MIXED

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 107.36 UP 0.333 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2419   UP   0.0009  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/

 

USA/CAN 1.3647 UP .0009 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  THURSDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL BY 55 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1198 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 8.93 POINTS OR 0.30% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 125.76 POINTS OR 0.50%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 2,53%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL MIXED

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL MIXED 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 125.76 POINTS OR 0.50%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 8.93 POINTS OR 0.30%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 2.53 % 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 274.53  POINTS OR 1.22%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1760.40

silver:$17.52-

Early THURSDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 0.67% !!! DOWN 2 IN POINTS from WEDNESDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 1.41 DOWN 3  IN BASIS POINTS from WEDNESDAY night.

USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 97.51  UP 36 CENT(S) from  WEDNESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers THURSDAY MORNING

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And now your closing  THURSDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.46% UP 1 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: 02%  UP 1   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.46%//DOWN 1 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:1,30 UP 4 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 84 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.47% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.77% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR THURSDAY

Closing currency crosses for THURSDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1226  DOWN     .0024 or 24 basis points

USA/Japan: 107.15 UP .125 OR YEN DOWN 13  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2414 UP .0002 POUND UP 2  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 1 basis points to 1.3646

 

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The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 7.0782    ON SHORE  (DOWN)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  7.0810  (YUAN DOWN)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  6.8556 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +02%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 1 IN basis points from WEDNESDAY at 0.67 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 1.42 DOWN 3 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 97.36 UP 21  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for THURSDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 23.45  0.38%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 83.93 POINTS OR .69%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 47.22 POINTS 0.77%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 74.80 POINTS or 1.04%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 71.77 POINTS OR 0.37%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 38.53 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 40.94 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE RISES:    69.13  THE CROSS LOWER BY 0.44 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE HIGHER BY 44 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.47 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  39.09//

 

 

BRENT :  41.41

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 0.68 down one basis point…

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 1.43..down one basis point..

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.1225 ( DOWN 25   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:107.12 UP .099 (YEN DOWN 10 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 97.37 UP 22 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.2427 UP 15  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 6.8506

 

 

the Russian rouble 69.04   UP 0.52 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( UP 52 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3034 UP 21 BASIS pts

 

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.47%

 

The Dow closed UP 299.66 POINTS OR 1.18%

 

NASDAQ closed UP 107.84 POINTS OR 1.09%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  32.41 CLOSED DOWN 1.43

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 0.283%//libor dropping like a stone

LIBOR/OIS: .211%

TED SPREAD (3 MONTH TREASURY YIELD VS LIBOR YIELD) = .138%

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

Stocks Surge As Bank ‘Bonanza’ Beats COVID Concerns

Disney delaying its parks reopening, disappointing slowdown in the improvement in jobless claims, more concerns over a second wave of COVID (directly impacting Texas and Apple), all offset by regulators easing regs on banks (and presumably hopes of no dividend cuts tonight from the bank stress tests)…

  • 1000ET *BANKS GET EASIER VOLCKER RULE AND $40 BLN REPRIEVE ON SWAPS
  • 1049ET *FLORIDA COVID-19 CASES RISE 4.6% VS. PREVIOUS 7-DAY AVG. 4%
  • 1135ET *TEXAS GOVERNOR HALTS NEW PHASES OF REOPENING STATE’S ECONOMY
  • 1140ET *ARIZONA VIRUS CASES JUMP 5.1%, ABOVE PRIOR 7-DAY AVERAGE 2.3%
  • 1435ET *APPLE TO RE-CLOSE 14 MORE U.S. RETAIL STORES ON COVID-19 SPIKE
  • 1510ET *CALIFORNIA HOSPITALIZATIONS NOW UP 32% OVER LAST 14 DAYS.
  • 1532ET *FLORIDA‘S DESANTIS: NO PLAN TO GO TO NEXT PHASE OF OPENING NOW
  • 1558ET *U.S. VIRUS CASES RISE 1.7%, BIGGEST GAIN SINCE MAY 30

After yesterday’s chaotic headlines, today was far calmer – despite similar headlines – making for one of the lowest range days of the year, until…

Source: Bloomberg

Until a huge buy program hit at 1530ET…(no news catalyst)

Source: Bloomberg

Lifting everything ahead of tonight’s stress test. Four major buying moves in today’s actions but the late-day one is the most notable for its total lack of reason…TOTAL PANIC BID!!!!

Yes, small caps rallied 1.5% in the last hour of the day on nothing but bad news from a virus perspective and no news on anything else. 9th positive day in the last 10 for Nasdaq.

This seems to sum things up rather well…

The big banks all jumped nicely at the open on the Volcker Rule easings (ahead of tonight’s stress test results)…

Source: Bloomberg

Notably financials outperformed (driving Small Caps) despite a flattening in the yield curve…

Source: Bloomberg

And derivatives are implying a cut next and then a flat dividend yield from banks for the next 12 months

Source: Bloomberg

Bonds were barely alive today with the long-end very marginally lower in yield…

Source: Bloomberg

The Dollar ended marginally higher, but slipped late on back into the red on the week…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin traded down to $9,000 intraday before bouncing back to almost unchanged…

Source: Bloomberg

Oil prices rebounded today but WTI was unable to get back to the $40 Maginot Line…

Silver managed gains on the day but failed to reach $18…

But gold ended the day marginally lower, but appears to be coiling for a move…

And finally, sometimes you just gotta know when to fold ’em… Warren Buffett is going through “the worst patch” of his investing career, Jim Bianco, president and founder of Bianco Research LLC, wrote Wednesday in a Twitter post.

As Bloomberg notes, Bianco cited a total-return ratio, including dividends, between Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. and the S&P 500 Index.

Source: Bloomberg

The ratio closed Tuesday at its lowest level since November 2001 after dropping 23% from this year’s high, set March 16, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The current reading was first reached in 1995, as cited by Bianco, who wrote that “Berkshire has turned into a mediocracy” for the past 25 years.

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

 

 

ii)Market data/USA

A huge 1.48 more Americans filed for unemployment benefits for the first time  (worse than the 1.32 expected).  Continuing claims drop only slightly..no V shaped recovery yet…

(zerohedge)

America’s Jobless Claims Data Refuse To Confirm V-Shaped Recovery Narrative

As fears of a second wave of COVID (and the concomitant risk of re-lockdowns for America) soar, the last week saw 1.48 million more Americans filed for unemployment benefits for the first time (notably worse than the 1.32 mm expected).

Source: Bloomberg

That brings the fourteen-week total to 47.25 million, dramatically more than at any period in American history. However, as the chart above shows, the second derivative has turned the corner (even though the 1.48 million rise this last week is still higher than any other week in history outside of the pandemic)

California and Maryland were the worst states for jobless claims in the prior week with Oklahoma and Kentucky showing the biggest improvement…

Continuing Claims did drop modestly but hardly a signal that “re-opening” is occurring! And definitely not confirming the PMI data…

Source: Bloomberg

And as we noted previously, what is most disturbing is that in the last fourteen weeks, more than twice as many Americans have filed for unemployment than jobs gained during the last decade since the end of the Great Recession… (22.13 million gained in a decade, 47.25 million lost in 14 weeks)

Worse still, the final numbers will likely be worsened due to the bailout itself: as a reminder, the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act, passed on March 27, could contribute to new records being reached in coming weeks as it increases eligibility for jobless claims to self-employed and gig workers, extends the maximum number of weeks that one can receive benefits, and provides an additional $600 per week until July 31.

Finally, it is notable, we have lost 387 jobs for every confirmed US death from COVID-19 (121,979).Was it worth it?

The big question remains – what happens when the $600 CARES Act bonuses stop flowing? Will those who stayed home (thanks to making more money siting on their couch than working) be able to find a job?

end
Durable goods orders rebound but barely
(zerohedge)

Durable Goods Orders Rebound Keeps Dream Of “V”-Recovery Alive (Barely)

After March and April’s collapse, US Durable Goods Orders were expected to rebound strongly in May and according to preliminary data, they did as headline data soared 15.8% MoM – the most since July 2014. However, on a year-over-year basis, durable goods orders remain down 21.4%…

The MoM rise of 15.8% was better than the expected 10.% rise (but off a revised lower -18.8% drop in April)…

 

Source: Bloomberg

Is the ‘V’ you’ve been looking for?

 

Source: Bloomberg

Closely watched core capital goods orders, which exclude aircraft and military hardware, rebounded 2.3% in May after a 6.5% revised lower decrease a month earlier. Shipments of those goods, a proxy for equipment investment in the government’s gross domestic product report, rose just 1.8% (after a revised lower 6.2% drop in April)…

While states have begun letting business reopen, manufacturing will likely remain slow to recover as fewer people shop and businesses rein in capital spending projects. But, of course, this is all in the rear-view mirror, stocks tell you what happens next, right? V-shaped recovery any second!

end

Q1 GDP   (Jan to March) shows a drop of -5% in its final revision..corporate profits tumbled 12.3%.  Q2 will look worse and we are now entering  Q3 with the virus will rampant.

(zerohedge)

Q1 GDP Unchanged At -5.0% In Final Revision As Corporate Profits Tumbled 12.3%

While hardly even worth mentioning at a time when everyone is focusing not so much on Q2 GDP but whether Q3 will stage a V-shaped recovery, it is perhaps worth noting that today’s final Q1 GDP revision came in right on top of expectations, and unchanged from the 2nd revision of -5.0% annualized.

 

While the overall change in GDP was unrevised from the second estimate, an upward revision to business investment was offset by downward revisions to inventory investment, consumer spending, and exports.

The changes between the first and second estimate are as follows:

  • Personal Consumption revised lower: from -4.69% to -4.73%
  • Fixed Investment revised higher: from -0.41% to -0.21%
  • Change in Private inventories revised higher: from -1.43% to -1.56%
  • Exports revised slightly lower: from -1.02% to -1.06%
  • Imports also largely unchanged: from 2.34% to 2.37%
  • Government Consumption was also flat: from 0.15% to 0.20%.

 

Personal consumption fell 6.8% in 1Q after rising 1.8% prior quarter, and also in line with expectations.

The GDP price index rose a modest 1.4%, also in line with last quarter, and also unchanged, while core PCE posted a modest increase and beat, coming in at 1.7% vs 1.6% expected and in the 2nd revision.

Corporate profits decreased 12.3% at a quarterly rate in the first quarter after increasing 2.6% in the fourth quarter. Corporate profits decreased 6.9% in the first quarter from one year ago.

  • Profits of domestic nonfinancial corporations decreased 15.4 percent after increasing 4.8 percent.
  • Profits of domestic financial corporations decreased 9.2 percent after increasing 0.2 percent.
  • Profits from the rest of the world decreased 8.0 percent after decreasing 0.3 percent.

 

While we knew that this would be the worst print since the financial crisis, the real question is what Q2 GDP will be, and more importantly whether Q3 GDP for a quarter that begins in less than a week, will show the dramatic improvement already priced into stocks.

end

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

CORONAVIRUS UPDATE/USA/GLOBE//WEDNESDAY NIGHT

US Sets New Record For Largest Daily Jump In COVID-19 Cases As 39k Infected: Live Updates

Summary:

  • US sees new record jump in COVID cases
  • As testing expands, US sees highest percent positive since May 10
  • Texas reports another record daily jump in covid cases
  • US sees biggest jump in cases since mid April (2 months)
  • Houston warns on track to see ICU beds overwhelmed by tomorrow
  • Oklahoma reports record jump
  • NJ starts to see transmission rate creep higher
  • Italy reports negative deaths for first time after revision
  • NY to delay reopening of gyms, movie theaters in some areas
  • Northeastern states order visitors to quarantine
  • Houston ICU units at 97% capacity
  • Arizona reports drop in new cases
  • Fla. reports jump in new cases
  • More counties in Fla. move to require facemasks
  • NYC beaches will reopen in July
  • 2020 NYC Marathon cancelled
  • Cali posts new record for daily cases
  • Global COVID deaths top 475k
  • Cases top 9.2 million
  • US cases near 2.5 million
  • Deaths top 120k
  • 27 states see cases increasing
  • Australia sees another cluster
  • Beijing says latest cluster is contained
  • China has done 90 million nucleic acid tests
  • UK moving to relax restrictions
  • MLB’s shortened season will move ahead
  • WHO warns Africa testing capacity improving

* * *

Update (1830ET): Several early indicators of the number of cases being recorded on Wednesday (typically numbers are reported with a 24 hour delay) suggest that with the new daily records in florida, texas, california, oklahoma etc, we might see the total confirmed number of cases surpass the previous record set in mid-April.

According to the COVID Tracking Project, the US just recorded its largest one-day increase in coronavirus cases, as seven states, mainly in the south and west, reported new record increases over the last 24 hours (remember all of these data are reported with a one-day lag, and not every state has finished reporting all of its daily numbers), with the nationwide tally rising by 38,672, according to the Covid Tracking Project.

Already, the US is seeing the percentage of tests coming back positive at 7.7%, the highest number since May 10, which doesn’t put us back to the worst days of the outbreak in New York and the surrounding area, but is definitely still pretty alarming.

The coronavirus tracking project housed at the Atlantic also noted that the picture, as far as new cases are concerned (the increase in deaths has been more muted), is pretty startling, with the uptick in cases starting in the south late last month, just as many governors were celebrating a premature victory over the holiday weekend.

* * *

Update (1750ET): As we await the latest data out of Brazil, Bloomberg has published this lengthy piece explaining how Brazil’s outbreak has finally metastasized into the “worst-case scenario” that public health officials had initially tried to avoid.

According to BBG, Texas Gov Greg Abbott warned Wednesday that the massive outbreak was making things extremely precarious in the state, although another round of lockdowns wouldn’t be necessary. As we said earlier, Texas just saw its worst day so far for new cases, with a jump of 5,551 to 125,921. The 4.6% one-day rise exceeded the 3.7% seven-day average. Hospitalizations climbed by 7.3% to 4,389.

Health officials warned that the state is on track to fill normal COVID capacity by the end of the week, and would then need to bring on line overflow capacity, which would only last for 11 days, assuming hospitalizations continue to climb at the current levels.

Our infrastructure is overwhelmed,” said David Persse, Houston’s director of emergency medical services, during a Wednesday briefing.

Brazil, meanwhile, is on track to emerge as the world’s worst outbreak once all of this is over. Per BBG, the reasons Brazil has made such a perfect host for the coronavirus are diverse and not yet fully understood. Like the U.S. it never issued nationwide rules for social distancing, leaving local officials to enforce a hodgepodge of random and sometimes contradictory orders, often – but not always – including lockdowns. Now the country is almost entirely back to normal (or, as close to normal as one can get during a time when nobody wants to stand within 6 feet of another person), and the number of cases and deaths are still skyrocketing to as-yet-unseen highs.

* * *

Update (1700ET): Texas just reported a record jump in new cases.

  • TEXAS VIRUS CASES RISE BY RECORD 5,551 TO 125,921, STATE SAYS

The number of deaths declined once again.

But apart from hinting about delaying elected surgeries and appointments, the governor hasn’t said too much about ratcheting up the state’s response. In fact, a federal program subsidizing testing sites is ending in the coming days, which will close 7 testing sites in Texas just at the moment they’re most badly needed.

So far today, we’ve seen record jumps in Florida, Oklahoma, California and Texas, a group that includes the three largest states where cases are rising.

* * *

Update (1645ET): Just like yesterday, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott warned that the coronavirus outbreak in his state is growing out of control. In order to free up hospital space, “local restrictions” may be needed, presumably restrictions on elective surgeries and visits.

And by “locally”, we assume he means Houston and the surrounding area. Earlier, Miami Mayor Francis Suarez said he’s seeing “alarming COVID data” which…isn’t really a matter of dispute (he also warned that October’s presidential debate may not have an audience).

Florida shattered its daily record for new coronavirus cases on Wednesday with more than 5,500 newly confirmed cases, bringing the state’s total to 109,014, according to figures released by the Florida Department of Health. Miami-Dade County contributes roughly 25% to the statewide total.

* * *

Update (1600ET): The US just reported more than 35k cases today, with California alone contributing roughly 1/5th of the total.

The NYT has just released the latest update: The exact number is 35,032 cases.

Deaths were also notably their highest in a week.

Meanwhile, officials in Houston just said that they’re on track to see intensive care beds overwhelmed by tomorrow.

* * *

Update (1525ET): As California’s positivity rate hits double digits, NY is gloating about its positivity rate, which has fallen to barely more than a percentage point of the total number tested (a number that sometimes tops 50k a day).

* * *

Update (1450ET): Just days after President Trump’s rally in Tulsa, Oklahoma has once again posted a record jump in new cases.

  • OKLAHOMA REPORTS RECORD ONE-DAY SPIKE IN COVID CASES: AP

Meanwhile, Apple is closing more stores in Houston and other hard-hit areas.

  • APPLE TO RE-CLOSE 7 STORES IN HOUSTON, TX ON COVID-19 SPIKE

As the northeastern states like NY, N J & CT move to try to keep Americans from infected parts of the country from traveling, all three states have agreed to impose ‘recommended’ 14-day quarantines for everybody arriving from hard-hit areas, NJ just reported that its transmission rate, an increasingly closely watched metric, which, along with hospitalizations, is said to provide a more accurate picture of the outbreak in light of rising testing rates.

The state’s “R” rate climbed to 0.86. On Tuesday that figure, called the transmission rate, was 0.81. Less than two weeks ago, it was 0.64, a mark of immense progress since March.

Hospitalizations also increased in the state over the last 24 hours.

* * *

Update (1435ET): California Gov. Gavin Newsom has shared some alarming stats about the state’s ICU capacity, which is rapidly shrinking.

  • CA GOVERNOR SAYS COVID CASES USING 30% OF ICU CAPACITY
  • CALIFORNIA SEES 18% INCREASE IN COVID ICU CASES IN TWO WEEKS

* * *

Update (1340ET): California public health officials just released the real number of new cases (the number we reported earlier is compiled by California media), which, like the numbers reported earlier, represent a record daily jump. That’s ~500 cases more than last week.

  • CALIFORNIA REPORTS 7,149 NEW VIRUS CASES, BIGGEST DAILY JUMP

Meanwhile, a magnitude 6 earthquake just rocked the central part of the state.

* * *

Update (1320ET): For the first time, Italy has reported negative daily deaths

Typically, revisions like these result in hundreds, if not thousands, of previously uncounted deaths being added to the rolls.

* * *

Update (1240ET): After announcing his plans to ask travelers from hard hit states to quarantine for 2 weeks when traveling to the tri-state area, Cuomo just announced that he would delay plans to reopen gyms, malls, movie theaters and other businesses in parts of the state where they were expected to reopen on Friday.

The delay will allow a closer examination of how the virus travels indoors via ventilation. Some parts of upstate NY were set for those businesses to reopen Friday.

* * *

Update (1140ET): As a stream of non-stop negative COVID-19 headlines pushes stocks lower, New York, New Jersey and Connecticut have all just declared that travelers visiting their states will once again be required to shelter in place for 2 weeks, the first in what many fear will be more restrictions on travelers from other parts of the country.

* * *

Update (1130ET): What was supposed to take 11 days has instead taken…a lot less time than that.

Not even 24 hours after Houston City officials warned that hospital capacity in the state might be overwhelmed in 11 days if cases continue at their current level, a city official on Tuesday warned that intensive-care units in the city are presently at 97% capacity.

  • HOUSTON-AREA INTENSIVE CARE UNITS ARE AT 97% OF CAPACITY: CITY OFFICIAL

The announcement comes days after Texas surpassed 4,000 new cases for the first time, and just a day after Texas Children’s Hospital, the largest pediatric hospital in the US, began taking adult patients to free up bed space in Houston.

Tuesdays do tend to be bad days, with reporting sometimes being “lumpy” as states clear weekend backlogs. But at this point, the trend is overwhelming.

* * *

Update (1120ET): Arizona reported just 1,795 new infections involving the novel coronavirus, along with 79 additional deaths. That’s down from yesterday’s record spike of 3,591.

Meanwhile…

* * *

Update (1035ET): Florida has reported another record increase in daily new cases. The Florida Department of Health reported that there are 5,511 new coronavirus cases in Florida today. The previous record was 4,049, set this past Saturday.

  • FLORIDA COVID-19 CASES RISE 5.3% VS. PREVIOUS 7-DAY AVG. 3.7%

It also saw new hospitalizations climb by 256, or 1.9%, to 13,574, the biggest single-day increase in numbers in a month. On a rolling seven day-basis, they reached 1,185. The biggest was 265 on May 21.

Source: Fox 35

The latest numbers from the Florida Department of Health show that there have been 109,014 cases of COVID-19 statewide, resulting in 3,281 deaths. The state’s positivity rate, meanwhile, has climbed to 15.9% of all tests up from 10.8%.

A growing number of counties, particularly in the southern part of the state where Palm Beach just adopted the policy, officials are requiring that masks be worn in public.

On the bright side, the state reported just 44 deaths, a sign that deaths in the sun belt states seeing a surge in cases haven’t been rising nearly as fast as the total cases. Despite this, a 17-year-old Florida resident became the state’s youngest coronavirus-related death, according to state health data reported today.

Workers at Disney World in Orlando, which is set to reopen next month, have gathered to sign a petition asking the company to delay its reopening.

Gov DeSantis is expected to make a “major announcement” this afternoon at 2:30pmET. The gov has been facing more pressure to apologize for saying mostly Latino farm workers are spreading the virus, claims that appear to be unfounded. The governor has offered no indication to expect he might roll back or delay the reopening plan in the state.

We now await data from Arizona, Texas and South Carolina , along with a few other states.

 

Update (1015ET): New York City has officially cancelled the 2020 New York marathon, which is typically held in the fall just before the start of the holiday season. This year’s race was set for November.

On the other hand, mayor de Blasio said the city’s beaches would reopen for swimming next month.

Meanwhile, a team of Goldman analysts has set a line for when states might cave to pressure to slow the reopening, or reverse it: “.. we think a decline in hospital capacity below 20% could pressure states to consider slowing or reversing reopening. According to the CDC, Alabama and Maryland currently have 23% of ICU beds available .. and Arizona has 25% available ..”

* * *

Update (0955ET): For the second day in a row, California has shattered a daily record for new cases, reporting more than 6,600 infections on Tuesday, after reporting more than 6k on Monday, leaving the state with its second consecutive record for the largest single-day count since the outbreak began.

Stocks aren’t happy.

* * *

A pullback in risk assets on Wednesday has swerved the spotlight back to the burgeoning global coronavirus crisis, a resurgence in global cases driven primarily by the US, Latin America and a handful of Asian or Eurasian countries including India and Russia (and several of their neighbors).

Most alarmingly, the US is on track to seeing the average number of new infections reported daily eclipse the highs from the “peak” of the outbreak back in April, when New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts and Connecticut saw the number of patients hospitalized and in the ICU hit their peaks. While deaths have lagged amid evidence that the rising case counts in the US are being driven primarily by young people acting irresponsibly, in roughly a week, the US will eclipse the 50k cases per day mark, at which point a surge in deaths and more severe cases will be virtually inevitable.

At this point, the alarming surge in new cases seen along the sunbelt states from Florida to Arizona on to California is clearly being driven by loosening restrictions on the economy, as states that waited the longest to close down have also been among the first to reopen. At first, it looked like this strategy had been vindicated as Georgia appeared to have dodged the feared second wave. But the state has since seen its daily case counts move back into record territory: Arizona, California, Texas and Mississippi all reported record increases in new cases yesterday, along with other states.

A staggering 27 states are now seeing cases increase, according to the NY Times.

Per WaPo, 33 states and US territories have reported a higher rolling average than last week. But even as case numbers climb, the federal government is poised to turn off the taps for federal funding to boost testing in hard-hit states like Texas. We suppose that’s what Trump meant when he said he “wasn’t joking” about trying to slow down the testing.

As a team of analysts from Fundstrat put it: “The rise is across multiple states, and while testing is higher, the synchronized rise across states is the bigger driver. The trend in cases is not good, and at face value, should be alarming.”

But it’s not just the US and Brazil. Germany reported 712 new cases of COVID-19, an increase of more than 200 from the number reported yesterday as Germany struggles with an outbreak at a meatpacking plant, while Tokyo reports 55 infections, its highest daily tally since May 5.

Localized lockdowns have been adopted in Germany (in the area surrounding the meatpacking plant which also happens to be located in Germany’s most populous state, North Rhine-Westphalia), and Israel as well as PM Benamin Netanyahu uses the lockdown and the pandemic response more broadly to try and protect his interests during his ongoing legal troubles.

As some EU members reopen their borders to intra-bloc tourists, Brussels is weighing whether to keep Americans out past July, when the bloc will begin to reopen its borders to countries where the virus isn’t widely spreading. The US clearly doesn’t meet this criteria, and President Trump showed Europe no similar consideration when he barred travelers from the Continent as well as Great Britain a few months back.

China’s policy of responding to every new outbreak with overwhelming force (while its propagandists work to blame it on the US and the West) has managed to successfully contain an other outbreak. The latest outbreak in Beijing has now been contained, Lei Haichao, head of Beijing Municipal Health Commission, said during a briefing on Wednesday. The virus spread very fast and a large number of cases emerged in a short period, Lei said. Beijing reported just seven additional local coronavirus infections for June 23, down from 13 the day before, per the NHC.

NHC officials told WaPo that they’ve conducted more than 90 million nucleic acid swab tests since the pandemic began.

Even in Australia, the state of Victoria saw 20 new cases in the past 24 hours and one man in his 80s died, bringing the national death toll to 103, weeks after the country reopened on the view that the outbreak had been successfully quashed.

As the UK moves to lift most of its lockdown restrictions by July 4, the WHO declared Wednesday that all African countries have now developed laboratory capacity to test for the coronavirus, according to Dr.Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the organization’s director general, who celebrated the advance in testing capacity.

“The most recent one million cases of COVID-19 were reported in just one week,” Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said during a virtual conference on COVID-19 vaccine development and access across the continent.

Though cases have picked up slightly in recent weeks, Africa has largely surprised health officials by avoiding the devastating outbreaks that many had feared.

Globally, the number of coronavirus cases topped 9.2 million, while the global death toll topped 475k. In the US, cases neared the 2.5 million mark, while deaths topped 120k.

As we reported last night, Texas Children’s Hospital began admitting adult patients, as hospitalizations have soared in Harris County in and around Houston. Meanwhile, Gov. Greg Abbott urged Texans to stay inside to avoid spreading the virus, finally acknowledging that “the safest place for you is at your home,” he said Tuesday.

Finally, Major League Baseball announced Tuesday on Twitter that its back-and-forth with the players’ union has been resolved and that athletes were reporting to training camps, despite a handful of infections at a Phillies spring training camp in Clearwater.

END

 

CORONAVIRUS UPDATE/THURSDAY MORNING/USA /GLOBE

US Sees Record 45k Jump In COVID-19 Infections As Global Total Nears 10 Million: Live Updates

Summary:

  • Australia sees biggest jump in cases since April
  • UK warned about second wave
  • US sees ~45k jump in new cases reported yesterday
  • Global total nears 10 mil
  • Persian Gulf virus total tops 400k
  • India to carry out virus ‘survey’ of New Delhi
  • Russia sees ~7k new cases, 92 deaths
  • Dr. Scott Gottlieb: “complacency” driving new US outbreak
  • Eiffel Tower reopens Thursday

* * *

Update (0745ET): Australia’s reopening hasn’t gone as smoothly as hoped. The country on Thursday confirmed its largest new batch of COVID-19 cases since April. Australia’s Victoria state reported 33 additional coronavirus cases, compared with 20 yesterday, while it was also reported that Australia is to deploy 1000 troops to the Victoria state capital of Melbourne to help contain the latest cluster in the area.

The WHO’s European Director says Europe saw its first increase in weekly cases in a long time, with 11 countries now facing a resurgence, as  public health officials in the UK warned that the country is at risk of a second wave as PM Boris Johnson struggles to reopen.

* * *

Thanks to the “complacency” of young (or young-ish) people across the south and the west of the US, the number of newly confirmed coronavirus cases topped its late-April peak of 36,400 new cases reported in a single day, with more than 45,000 new cases reported yesterday according to the latest tally from NBC News, up from the 39k we reported Wednesday evening.

All coronavirus data are reported with a 24-hour delay, so the record spike really happened on Tuesday. But the final numbers are in, and the picture is bleak. Seven states, including California, Florida, Oklahoma and Texas, reported record tallies of new cases yesterday, with the average age of hospitalized patients falling to 35, from 65 during the April peak in the northeast.

As Florida and Texas emerge as the two biggest ‘hotspots’, Disney has decided to delay the reopening of its theme parks in the US following a surge in cases in California and Florida, both of which reported record numbers of new cases yesterday. What’s more, Disney is pondering whether to push back the release of its live-action “Mulan” blockbuster, which would have been the first major film release with movie theaters back open.

New York, NJ and Conn. have all said they’ll be enforcing quarantine orders targeting travelers from out of state, and police will definitely be stopping cars with out-of-state license plates to see if they’re violating quarantine orders: If they are, they can expect a hefty fine, after the states have seemingly had a change of heard following Cuomo’s initial claim that the order wouldn’t be enforced.

One health professional warned that the outbreak is likely the result of younger people getting “complacent” – going to bars and other crowded public places without taking proper precautions.

“People got complacent, And it’s coming back and biting us, quite frankly,” according to the CEO of the Houston Methodist Hospital, who spoke to reporters as the health-care system in the city emerges as perhaps the most vulnerable in the country, as a new wave of COVID-19 patients flood the city’s hospital and ICU beds, which are nearly at capacity.

According to the Associated Press, governments from NY to Melbourne are taking steps to prevent a resurgence, or get their outbreak under control.

In India, authorities are launching a massive coronavirus survey, perhaps the most ambitious the world has seen since the dawn of the pandemic, as the government tries to get a handle on New Delhi, both the nation’s capital and one of the areas most impacted by the virus. The government will survey the city’s entire population of 29 million, with everyone being tested and facing a brief survey by July 6. That’s pretty, ambitious; Beijing managed to test millions of people in a week during its latest outbreak.

Per Al Jazeera, the new plan was announced Wednesday after the sprawling capital became the worst-hit city by the pandemic in India with 70,390 cases, exceeding the financial capital of Mumbai, its only real competition. 3,788 new cases were confirmed over the last 24 hours in Delhi, the government announced on Thursday, compared to 1,118 in Mumbai. India on Thursday registered another record high of 16,922 cases, taking the countrywide total to 473,105, leaving it still in fourth place behind the US, Brazil and Russia.

Latin America and the US are the two biggest contributors to the growing global coronavirus tally, but two other regions – the Middle East and Africa – are coming up in the rearview mirror.

COVID-19 cases in the Persian Gulf region have surpassed 400,000, according to Johns Hopkins data, as the number of daily cases reported climbs as governments start to ease restrictions. Africa’s cases have surged past 336,000 on Thursday, following a 10k increase in infections announced Wednesday evening.

The UAE, home of Dubai and other popular international cities, announced that it would finally be lifting a nightly curfew in place since mid-March as the number of cases it’s reporting every day has fallen by 2/3rds.

The global outbreak is on track to top 10 million next week, the World Health Organization has said, warning that the virus has yet to peak in North and South America. As of Thursday morning in the US, more than 9.4 million people around the world have been diagnosed with COVID-19, with more than 4.7 million recovered, and nearly 483,000 fatalities, per JHU.

Indonesia, a country that drew the world’s attention during the early days when its government acknowledged that it was actively hiding evidence of the virus, has finally seen its case total top 50k, though the government insists that improved testing is responsible for the recent uptick in newly confirmed cases.

Russia confirmed 7,113 new cases of the novel coronavirus, pushing its tally to 613,994.

The Eiffel Tower on Thursday welcomed back visitors after the coronavirus outbreak forced the Paris landmark into its longest closure since WWII.

Before we go, Dr. Scott Gottlieb appeared on Squawk Box this morning to comment on the latest record numbers out of the US. He said more states are seeing troubling data on new cases and hospitalizations, including Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Arkansas and others.

“This isn’t confined to a handful of states anymore,” the Dr. said. “It’s going to be difficult now to get this under control.”

Finally, Russia confirmed 7,113 new cases on Thursday, pushing its tally to 613,994, as the daily counts are slowly coming down. Only 92 deaths were recorded, bringing the death toll to 8,605. To be sure, critics claim Vladimir Putin’s government is deliberately undercounting deaths.

END

Disney delays reopening American Theme parks. (Disney World//Disneyland)

Disney Delays Reopening Of American Theme Parks

After announcing earlier this month that it would triumphantly reopen Disneyland Resort and Disney California Adventure Park, pending approval from state and local government, on July 17, Disney has taken a step back due to the renewed outbreaks in California and Florida and decided to delay the reopenings of its American theme parks.

Indeed, the company announced Wednesday that the state approvals needed to reopen likely wouldn’t arrive in time for its July 17 target date.

Disney’s “Park News” twitter account shared more information on the company’s plans.

According to the statement, a new reopening date will be announced “once we have a clearer understanding of when guidelines will be released.”

However, Disney’s “Downtown Disney”, which includes restaurants and retail shops, will still reopen on July 9 as planned.

Josh D’Amaro, the Chairman of Disney Parks, Experiences and Products, wrote in a blog post on June 10 that the company was “purposefully taking baby steps during this very intentional phased approach.”

Those steps included introducing a reservation system that will require all guests, including annual passholders, to reserve their park entry in advance, as well as putting a pin in all displays that draw crowds, like fireworks displays, parades etc.

Notably, the company in its statement assured its customers that, if left to its own devices, the company would reopen the parks, but it emphasized that local governments had to hit the breaks.

It highlights the intense financial pressure facing the company.

end

Chuck E Cheese files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy

(zerohedge)

Chuck E. Cheese Parent Files For Chapter 11 Bankruptcy 

CEC Entertainment Inc., the parent of Chuck E. Cheese and Peter Piper Pizza, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy on Thursday morning, making it the latest casualty of the virus pandemic that has crushed the restaurant industry.

CEC, owned by private-equity firm Apollo Global Management Inc., said the public health crisis and virus-related lockdowns have been the “most challenging” in its history, as it grapples with the severe financial strain of continued store closures. 

The company listed both assets and liabilities in the range of $1 billion to $10 billion, according to court filings in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of Texas. The strategic purpose of the bankruptcy is to “achieve a comprehensive balance sheet restructuring that supports its reopening and longer-term strategic plans.”

CEC said the U.S. and international franchise partners are excluded from restructuring. As of this week, 266 Chuck E. Cheese and Peter Piper Pizza restaurants have reopened – CEC operates more than 700 facilities, suggesting operating capacity is about 38%.

Readers may recall, bankruptcy fillings soared last week to 11-year highs matching the peak of the global financial crisis. The filings, led by weak consumer and energy sectors, were the most for any week since May 2009.

A period of high unemployment will be sticking around for the next several years – there’s a striking correlation between the unemployment rate and loan delinquencies – as we noted a month ago – will result in a “biblical” wave of bankruptcies.

The bad news this week is the emergence of the virus in California, Florida, and Texas. New quarantine orders were established in New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut on Wednesday for travelers from out of state. This all suggests lockdowns in certain states could be ahead – despite the Trump administration warning the economy cannot afford another round of lockdowns.

If the economic recovery is derailed by a second coronavirus wave – expect a flood of bankruptcies from virus sensitive industries such as restaurants – which essentially means there’s no V-shaped recovery.

end
Should be interesting 12 businesses and property owners are using the city of Seattle over CHOP
(zerohedge)

Seattle Sued By Businesses, Residents Over CHOP

Over a dozen businesses, property owners and residents filed a class-action lawsuit against the city of Seattle on Wednesday over the decision to cede a roughly six-block area to BLM protesters, who then established the Capitol Hill Autonomous Zone (CHAZ) – now known as the Capitol Hill Occupying Protest (CHOP).

Plaintiffs – which include several property management firms, an auto repair shop and a tattoo parlor, say the absence of police, firefighters and ambulances has subjected them to “extensive property damage, public safety dangers, and an inability to use and access their properties.”

That said, the plaintiffs want everyone to know that they support Black Lives Matter “who, by exercising such rights, are bringing issues such as systemic racism and unfair violence against African Americans by police to the forefront of the national consciousness.”

In short, they support the movement – just not the harms they’ve suffered as a result of it.

The occupation began after the Seattle Police Department decided to simply pull out of the neighborhood after days of escalations led to the deployment of tear gas and other crowd control measures. Instead of holding the line, SPD pulled out of the Capitol Hill neighborhood – after which rioters stormed the city’s East Precinct and claimed it as their own.

Since then, there have been three shootings on consecutive nights which began last weekend.

In response, Mayor Jenny Durkan said that the city would shut CHOP down – by encouraging demonstrators to leave voluntarily so that police could retake their precinct.

Patty Eakes, an attorney for the plaintiffs, separately told Durkan in a letter Wednesday that she wanted the mayor’s office to provide a timeline by Friday for clearing out the protest and returning police, or the plaintiffs would ask the court for an immediate order that full public access be restored.

“City leadership have been on the ground daily having discussions with demonstrators, residents and businesses and trusted community-based, Black-led organizations to determine a path forward that protects the right to peacefully protest and keeps people safe,” the mayor’s office said in a written statement.

In the class-action lawsuit, filed in U.S. District Court, about a dozen businesses, residents and property owners said they had sometimes been threatened for photographing protesters in public areas or for cleaning graffiti off their storefronts. The owner of the auto shop Car Tender said a burglar broke in the night of June 14, started a fire using hand sanitizer as an accelerant, and then attacked his son with a knife when confronted.

The owner and his son managed to put out the fire and detain the burglar, the complaint said, but police never responded to their 911 calls. A large crowd of “CHOP participants” then came to the scene and forced the owner to release the arsonist, it said. –Washington Times

Plaintiffs are seeking damages for property damage, lost business, deprivation of their property rights and demand that full public access be restored to their businesses.

end
Second wave of the Coronavirus hits Texas and this causes Texan oil companies to keep staff at home
(Irina Slav/Oil Price.com)

Texan Oil Companies Forced To Keep Staff Home As Second Wave Hits

Authored by Irina Slav via OilPrice.com,

Amid record-breaking additions to the new Covid-19 case count in Texas, oil companies in the state have suspended plans to return staff to offices, Reuters reports.

Health officials in the state reported a record-high number of newly diagnosed cases yesterday, at 5,551, with another 4,389 people hospitalized with the viral disease–also a record number.

In light of this new data, Texas Governor Greg Abbott warned that the state is facing a “massive outbreak”, and some restrictions may need to be implemented to slow the spread of the virus. Abbott was among the governors pushing for a quick reopening of states after the lockdown.

“There are some regions in the state of Texas that are running tight on hospital capacity that may necessitate a localized strategy to make sure that hospital beds will be available,” Governor Abbott said.

“We are looking at greater restrictions and some could be localized,” he also said, as quoted by local media.

The reopening in Texas started on May 1 and was planned in several phases. Businesses, too, returned to work in phases. These phases have now been delayed, with Halliburton saying it will delay its planned return of staff to offices by two weeks, while Chevron has delayed the staff’s return to work until further notice. Only a small number of Chevron’s staff work at its offices in Houston and San Ramon, Reuters reported.

Exxon has not yet revised its return-to-work plans, with less than 50 percent of staff to work at its Houston-area offices.

ConocoPhillips has also not yet made changes to its plans but will make them if necessary, according to a spokesperson who spoke to Reuters.

The Texas oil industry shed a record 26,300 jobs in April alone, at the height of the pandemic-caused crisis, leaving about 192,600 people employed in the industry, which, the Houston Chronicle said, was the lowest employment number in Texas oil and gas since 2016, at the height of the previous oil price crisis.

end
I strongly urge you to see the following graphs as per expected recovery in the uSA…none
it will be a huge depression like crisis
(zerohedge)

“Depression-Like Crisis” Unfolding With No V-Shaped Recovery Until 2023, UCLA Anderson Warns

At a time when the Trump administration continually promotes a V-shaped economic recovery from the coronavirus pandemic, a new UCLA Anderson Forecast has revised its economic forecast down, with no recovery this year or next.

UCLA Anderson Forecast senior economist David Shulman writes in its second quarterly forecast of 2020, that the virus pandemic has “morphed into a Depression-like crisis” with no V-shaped recovery until 2023.

“To call this crisis a recession is a misnomer. We are forecasting a 42% annual rate of decline in real GDP for the current quarter, followed by a ‘Nike swoosh’ recovery that won’t return the level of output to the prior fourth quarter of 2019 peak until early 2023,” Shulman writes in a report titled “The Post-COVID Economy.”

“On a fourth-quarter-to-fourth-quarter basis, real GDP will decline by 8.6% in 2020 and then increase by 5.3% and 4.9% in 2021 and 2022, respectively,” he notes.

Shulman says the labor market might not recover until “well past 2022,” and the unemployment rate will stay stubbornly high, well over 10% through the fourth quarter of 2020. A labor recovery might not be seen for several years.

“For too many workers, the recession will linger on well past the official end date,” he warns. 

He says the economy is in desperate need of more stimulus via the Federal Reserve and the federal government to support ailing corporate bond markets and a severely damaged consumer.

“Simply put, despite the Paycheck Protection Program, too many small businesses will fail and millions of jobs in restaurants and personal service firms will disappear in the short run. We believe that even with the availability of a vaccine, it will take time for consumers to return to normal,” Shulman writes. 

The report says the economy has hit bottom, that doesn’t necessarily mean GDP and employment levels will immediately surge back to fourth-quarter 2019 levels, as heavily indebted companies and weak consumers will lead to sluggish economic activity.

For more color on the recovery so far, Fathom Consulting offers a glimpse into a less than stellar rebound:

US retail sales for restaurants have yet to bounce significantly.

Industrial production remains at lows.

An explosion in government debt to prop up the crashed economy.

Tens of millions of people out of work.

High unemployment suggests a “biblical” wave of bankruptcies is about to flood the US economy.

Meanwhile, the stock market’s disconnect from reality is setting up for the next possible stock market correction.

Corporate profits are sliding, stocks are rising. Alligator jaws… 

UCLA Anderson Forecast’s new downward revision of the recovery suggests the worst has yet to be seen – several more years of pain are likely ahead. 

END

Late tonight:  USA banks stocks sink as the Fed Reserve caps dividends and forbids share buybacks due to problems with their stress tests.

(zerohedge)

 

US Bank Stocks Sink As Fed Caps Dividends, Forbids Share Buybacks In Stress Tests

Bank stocks surged today ahead of what analyst Mike Mayo called “the most high-profile stress test since the financial crisis” thanks to handout on Volcker Rule and swap margin easings and hope for tonight’s Fed release of a data avalanche showing how the top 34 banks would fare in a hypothetical crash (including, for the first time, a pandemic scenario) and whether they will be allowed to execute their dividend plans.

The market is pricing in a modest dividend cut and then flat for the next 12 months…

As The FT reports, ahead of the results, US policymakers, led by Mr Quarles, have gone against the grain in their messaging on dividends, speaking publicly of the importance of continuing payments. European supervisors, by contrast, ordered their banks to halt distributions while economies are ravaged by the pandemic.

So far, US banks have only voluntarily suspended share buybacks.

*  *  *

So what did the results say?

The Fed said in a release that big banks will be required to suspend share buybacks and cap dividend payments at their current level for the third quarter of this year. The regulator also said that it would only allow dividends to be paid based on a formula tied to a bank’s recent earnings.

Furthermore, the industry will be subject to ongoing scrutiny: For the first time in the decade-long history of the stress test, banks will have to resubmit their payout plans again later this year.

“While I expect banks will continue to manage their capital actions and liquidity risk prudently, and in support of the real economy, there is material uncertainty about the trajectory for the economic recovery,” Fed Vice Chair Randall Quarles said in a statement.

“As a result, the Board is taking action to assess banks’ conditions more intensively and to require the largest banks to adopt prudent measures to preserve capital in the coming months.”

Bank stocks are not happy…

Wells Fargo and BofA are the worst hit after hours…

Ally Financial and BMO had the lowest common equity tier 1 ratio in the severely adverse scenario:

Discover, Capital One, Barclays, and Amex face the biggest loan losses…

Credit Suisse is the most exposed to losses from Commercial Real Estate…

*  *  *

Full release

The Federal Reserve Board on Thursday released the results of its stress tests for 2020 and additional sensitivity analyses that the Board conducted in light of the coronavirus event.

“The banking system has been a source of strength during this crisis,” Vice Chair Randal K. Quarles said, “and the results of our sensitivity analyses show that our banks can remain strong in the face of even the harshest shocks.”

In addition to its normal stress test, the Board conducted a sensitivity analysis to assess the resiliency of large banks under three hypothetical recessions, or downside scenarios, which could result from the coronavirus event. The scenarios included a V-shaped recession and recovery; a slower, U-shaped recession and recovery; and a W-shaped, double-dip recession.

In the three downside scenarios, the unemployment rate peaked at between 15.6 percent and 19.5 percent, which is significantly more stringent than any of the Board’s pre-coronavirus stress test scenarios. The scenarios are not predictions or forecasts of the likely path of the economy or financial markets.

In aggregate, loan losses for the 34 banks ranged from $560 billion to $700 billion in the sensitivity analysis and aggregate capital ratios declined from 12.0 percent in the fourth quarter of 2019 to between 9.5 percent and 7.7 percent under the hypothetical downside scenarios. Under the U- and W-shaped scenarios, most firms remain well capitalized but several would approach minimum capital levels. The sensitivity analysis does not incorporate the potential effects of government stimulus payments and expanded unemployment insurance.

In light of these results, the Board took several actions following its stress tests to ensure large banks remain resilient despite the economic uncertainty from the coronavirus event. For the third quarter of this year, the Board is requiring large banks to preserve capital by suspending share repurchases, capping dividend payments, and allowing dividends according to a formula based on recent income. The Board is also requiring banks to re-evaluate their longer-term capital plans.

All large banks will be required to resubmit and update their capital plans later this year to reflect current stresses, which will help firms re-assess their capital needs and maintain strong capital planning practices during this period of uncertainty. The Board will conduct additional analysis each quarter to determine if adjustments to this response are appropriate.

During the third quarter, no share repurchases will be permitted. In recent years, share repurchases have represented approximately 70 percent of shareholder payouts from large banks. The Board is also capping dividend payments to the amount paid in the second quarter and is further limiting them to an amount based on recent earnings. As a result, a bank cannot increase its dividend and can pay dividends if it has earned sufficient income.

The Board also released the results of its full stress test designed before the coronavirus. The results from that test are comparable to the V-shaped downside scenario in the sensitivity analysis, in aggregate, and show that all large banks remain strongly capitalized. The Board will use the results of this test to set the new stress capital buffer requirement for these firms, which will take effect, as planned, in the fourth quarter. Additionally, the Board will not be objecting to five foreign banks whose capital planning practices were evaluated as part of the stress tests.

*  *  *

Full Results below:

2020-dfast-results-20200625 by Zerohedge on Scribd

iv) Swamp commentaries

Appellant court rules 2 to 1.  The dissenting vote, Judge Wilkens is an Obama appointee. Figures!!

(zerohedge)

 

Flynn Dismissal Order ‘Thoroughly Demolishes’ Dissenting Judge’s Opinion

Update (2135ET): Missouri appellate attorney John Reeves has weighed in on today’s decision by the US Court of Appeals for DC ordering Judge Emmett Sullivan to grant a DOJ request to drop the case against Michael Flynn.

The opinion, authored by one of the three judges on the panel, Neomi J. Rao, “thoroughly demolishes” a dissenting opinion by Judge Robert Wilkins – who Reeves thinks was so off-base that he “shot himself in the foot” when it comes to any chance of an ‘en-banc review’ in which the Flynn decision would be kicked back for a full review by the DC appellate court.

 

Neomi Rao testifies before the Senate Judiciary Committee during her confirmation hearing to be U.S. Circuit Judge for the District of Columbia Circuit, on Tuesday, February 5, 2019. Photo: Diego M. Radzinschi/ALM (via law.com)

Reeves, who has written filings for US Supreme Court cases, unpacks Rao’s “outstanding opinion” in the below Twitter thread, conveniently adding which page you can find what he’s referring to (condensed below after the first tweet, emphasis ours):

In all my years of appellate practice, I don’t think I’ve ever seen a non-US Supreme Court appellate opinion that so thoroughly demolishes a dissenting opinion as this one. Judge Rao could not have done better in writing the opinion, and it should be required law school rdg.

In addition, Judge Wilkins’ dissenting opinion is so off-the-mark that I believe he has shot himself in the foot for purposes of en banc review–in other words, he has ensured that otherwise-sympathetic judges on the DC Circuit will vote against en banc review.

Judge Rao comes out swinging by holding that its earlier opinion in Fokker “foreclose[s] the district court’s proposed scrutiny of the government’s motion to dismiss the Flynn prosecution.” p. 7.

In relying on Fokker, Judge Rao explicitly rejects Judge Wilkinson’s argument that Fokker’s holding is dicta (that is, non-binding). She holds Fokker “is directly controlling here.” p. 14.

Keep in mind that Fokker was written by Chief Judge Srinivasan, an OBAMA appointee. Judge Srinivasan does NOT want Fokker’s legitimacy undermined, no matter his politics.

Judge Wilkins’ dissent implies that Fokker was wrongly decided, and that it conflicts with other federal appellate courts. See p. 23 of 28. Judge Srinivasan will NOT be impressed by this argument in deciding whether to grant en banc rehearing. Fokker does not create a split.

Judge Rao goes on to emphasize that while judicial inquiry MAY be justified in some circumstances, Flynn’s situation “is plainly not the rare case where further judicial inquiry is warranted.” p. 6.

Rao notes that Flynn agrees with the Govt.’s dismissal motion, so there’s no risk of his rights being violated. In addition, the Government has stated insufficient evidence exists to convict Flynn. p. 6.

Rao also holds that “a hearing cannot be used as an occasion to superintend the prosecution’s charging decisions.” p. 7.

But by appointing amicus and attempting to hold a hearing on these matters, the district court is inflicting irreparable harm on the Govt. because it is subjecting its prosecutorial decisions to outside inquiry. p. 8

Thus, Judge Rao holds, it is NOT true that the district court has “yet to act” in this matter, contrary to Judge Wilkins’ assertions. p. 16.

[T]he district court HAS acted here….[by appointing] one private citizen to argue that another citizen should be deprived of his liberty regardless of whether the Executive Branch is willing to pursue the charges.” p. 16. This justified mandamus being issued NOW.

Judge Rao also makes short work of Judge Wilkins’ argument that the court may not consider the harm to the Government in deciding whether to grant mandamus bc the Government never filed a petition for mandamus. p. 17.

Judge Rao notes “[o]ur court has squarely rejected this argument,” and follows with a plethora of supporting citations. p. 17.

Judge Rao also notes–contrary to what many legal commentators have misled the public to believe–that it is “black letter law” that the Govt. can seek dismissal even after a guilty plea is made. This does not justify greater scrutiny by the district court. p. 6, footnote 1.

As to Judge Wilkins’ argument that a district court may conduct greater scrutiny where, as here, the Govt. reverses its position in prosecuting a case, Judge Rao points out that “the government NECESSARILY reverses its position whenever it moves to dismiss charges….” p. 13

“Given the absence of any legitimate basis to question the presumption of regularity, there is no justification to appoint a private citizen to oppose the government’s motion to dismiss Flynn’s prosecution.” p. 13.

But Judge Rao saves her most stinging and brutal takedown of Judge Wilkins’ dissent for the end…..(cont)

Judge Rao writes that “the dissent swings for the fences–and misses–by analogizing a Rule 48(a) motion to dismiss with a selective prosecution claim.” p. 17. (cont)

While it is true that the Executive cannot selectively prosecute certain individuals “based on impermissible considerations,” p. 18, “the equal protection remedy is to dismiss the prosecution, NOT to compel the Executive to bring another prosecution.” p. 18 (emph. added).

And Judge Rao is just getting warmed up here….She then notes that “unwarranted judicial scrutiny of a prosecutor’s motion to dismiss puts the court in an entirely different position [than selective prosecution caselaw assigns the court].” p. 18 (cont)

“Rather than allow the Executive Branch to dismiss a problematic prosecution, the court [as Judge Wilkins and Judge Sullivan would have it] assumes the role of inquisitor, prolonging a prosecution deemed illegitimate by the Executive.” p. 18 (cont).

And now for Judge Rao’s KO to Judge Wilkins and Judge Sullivan: “Judges assume that role in some countries, but Article III gives no prosecutorial or inquisitional power to federal judges.” p. 18. (cont)

In other words, Judge Rao is likening Judge Wilkins’ arguments, and Judge Sullivan’s actions, to what is done in non-democratic, third world countries. p. 18. Outstanding opinion. No mercy. END

 

Judge Robert Wilkins of the District of Columbia Circuit ( Credit: Diego M. Radzinschi / NLJ)

*  *  *

Like a liquid-metal terminator with half its head blown apart, the case against Michael Flynn just won’t die.

Hours after the US Court of Appeals for DC ordered Judge Emmett Sullivan to grant the DOJ’s request to drop the case, the retired ‘resistance’ judge hired to defend Sullivan’s actions has filed a motion requesting an extension to file his findings against Flynn.

*  *  *

In a major victory for Michael Flynn, the United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit has ordered Judge Emmet Sullivan to grant the Justice Department’s request to dismiss the case against the former Trump National Security Adviser.

“Upon consideration of the emergency petition for a writ of mandamus, the responses thereto, and the reply, the briefs of amici curiae in support of the parties, and the argument by counsel, it is ORDERED that Flynn’s petition for a writ of mandamus be granted in part; the District Court is directed to grant the government’s Rule 48(a) motion to dismiss; nd the District Court’s order appointing an amicus is hereby vacated as moot, in accordance with the opinion of the court filed herein this date,” reads the order.

In their decision, the appeals court wrote: “Decisions to dismiss pending criminal charges – no less than decisions to initiate charges and to identify which charges to bring – lie squarely within the ken of prosecutorial discretion.

“The Judiciary’s role under Rule 48 is thus confined to “extremely limited circumstances in extraordinary cases.””

Hence, no dice for Judge Sullivan.

Flynn pleaded guilty in December 2017 to lying to the FBI about his conversations with former Russian Ambassador to the US, Sergey Kislyak, during the presidential transition following the 2016 US election. He later withdrew his plea after securing new legal counsel, while evidence emerged which revealed the FBI had laid a ‘perjury trap‘ – despite the fact that the agents who interviewed him in January, 2017 said they thought he was telling the truth. Agents persisted hunting Flynn despite the FBI’s recommendation to close the case.

Once the FBI’s malfeasance was uncovered, the Justice Department moved to dismiss the case after Attorney General William Barr tapped an outside prosecutor to examine the FBI’s conduct. Judge Sullivan rejected the DOJ’s request – instead calling on an outside lawyer to make arguments against the DOJ’s move to drop the case.

In their Wednesday decision, the Appeals court noted that “the government’s motion includes an extensive discussion of newly discovered evidence casting Flynn’s guilt into doubt.”

Specifically, the government points to evidence that the FBI interview at which Flynn allegedly made false statements was “untethered to, and unjustified by, the FBI’s counterintelligence investigation into Mr. Flynn.” -US Court of Appeals

Shortly before the DOJ move to dismiss, former Mueller prosecutor Brandon Van Grack suddenly withdrew from the case (and others). Flynn’s new attorney, Sidney Powell, said that government documents revealed “further evidence of misconduct by Mr. Van Grack specifically.”

Sullivan urged the federal appeals court to also reject Flynn’s bid to bring an end to the case, which has now ruled against the judge.

END

 

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

US stocks plunged on Wednesday.  Anyone paying attention knew about Goldman’s warning that $76B of US equities were likely to be sold to rebalance portfolios for the end of Q2 AFTER Tuesday’s close through month end.  We mentioned this dynamic in our previous four missives.

The equity plunge yesterday was one of the most telegraphed and expected equity declines in history.  There is no reason to do a War and Peace analysis on Wednesday’s carnage.

Yet, media dopes and dilettantes blamed increasing Covid cases for the equity carnage.  An inveterate Trump hater said the plunge was due to the market believing that Biden would become president.  This is a risible notion.  If the market thought Biden would become president, stocks would crash.

We’ve been noting for almost a week that Covid cases are escalating in the US on the increase in testing; but fatalities are falling.  The surge in Covid cases in Mexico, Latam and South America is probably responsible for the rise in US Covid cases that are occurring in Florida and Mexican border states.

WaPo:  New coronavirus cases in the U.S. reach their highest single-day total- 36,000 new infections were reported… Wednesday — surpassing the previous single-day record of 34,203 on April 25…

MEDIA IGNORES 90% CORONAVIRUS DEATH COLLAPSE IN COUNTRY

https://outkick.com/media-ignores-90-coronavirus-death-collapse-in-country/

@KolHaolam: NY Gov Cuomo says NY, CT and NJ will impose quarantine-style restrictions on some visitors from Florida and other high-infection coronavirus states.

    @AnnCoulter: NY coronavirus deaths: 31,314.  FL (with a larger population, cruise ships and old people) coronavirus deaths: 3,281.  Glad Cuomo’s not politicizing this.

Apple’s easy ride from U.S. authorities may be over – The Justice Department and a coalition of state attorneys general are focusing on the company’s iron-clad control of its App Store.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/06/24/justice-department-anti-trust-apple-337120

Fed’s Evans: U.S. recovery to take years, outbreaks to slow growth

https://reuters.com/article/us-usa-fed-evans-idUSKBN23V2LV

@IvanPentchoukov: FBI Director Christopher Wray says there are now 2,000 active investigations tying back to the Chinese Communist Party. That is up from 1,000 investigations in February this year.

There were two enormous political stories that appeared on Wednesday.  A US Appellate Court ordered Judge Sullivan to dismiss charges against Gen. Flynn.  Then, the biggest story in eons appeared.

 

A top FBI executive’s (Strzok) notes indicate that Obama and Biden directed the Flynn frame after Comey said the Flynn-Kislyak phone calls “appear legit”; so there was no reason to ‘get Flynn’.

 

Obama ordered Comey to get “the right people” (Comey’s Cabal?) to investigate Gen Flynn.  Biden said the Logan Act should be utilized to get Flynn.  There are still redactions in Strzok’s notes.  Hmmm

 

Explosive New FBI Notes Confirm Obama Directed Anti-Flynn Operation

https://thefederalist.com/2020/06/24/explosive-new-fbi-notes-confirm-obama-directed-anti-flynn-operation/

 

Strzok Notes Reveal Obama Directed Flynn Investigation, Biden Raised Logan Act Violation

Handwritten notes taken by former FBI agent Peter Strzok revealed that President Barack Obama directed the FBI to continue investigating Lt. Gen. (Ret.) Michael Flynn just weeks before he was to become President Trump’s national security adviser, in a meeting during which Vice President Joe Biden suggested that Flynn violated the Logan Act… Up until now, it had been unclear exactly how involved Obama was in the FBI investigation of Trump’s national security adviser

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/06/24/strzok-notes-reveal-obama-directed-flynn-investigation-biden-raised-logan-act-violation/

 

Biden to ABC’s George Stephanopoulos: “I knew nothing about those moves to investigate Michael Flynn.” [Blatant lying to Americans]https://twitter.com/HansMahncke/status/1275813425164230656

 

@seanmdav: We are nowhere near justice being achieved. Flynn was nearly bankrupted by corrupt Obama apparatchiks. The country was taken hostage by a delusional and maniacal special prosecutor for years, all based on lies. And not one person has been charged for it.

     In an interview with @BretBaier on Fox News, FBI Director Chris Wray was asked directly if he was personally responsible for hiding exculpatory evidence from Flynn and Congress, and he refused to answer, which is telling.

 

@JohnWHuber on how Biden possibly came up with the Logan Act angle: An episode at the end of the series [West Wing 2006] (“Transition”) shows the outgoing lame duck admin in a foreign policy dispute with China and Russia. They carry out electronic surveillance of all calls with Russia and wiretap the incoming team and confront them about…the Logan Act!

 

Did Obama take cancer-fight line from ‘The West Wing’?  Updated Jan 17, 2019; Posted Jan 13, 2016

In a moving and evocative moment during the State of the Union speech, President Obama announced a push to cure cancer, comparing it to a “moon shot.”  For added drama, he put Vice President Joe Biden — still grieving over the cancer death of his son — in charge of the effort.

     To fans of the long-running show “The West Wing,” however, the scene had an eerie familiarity. They may have noticed Obama’s goal of curing cancer matched a similar goal put forth by Josiah Bartlet, the fictitious Democratic president in the show, which ran from 1999 through 2006

https://www.nj.com/healthfit/2016/01/obamas_war_on_cancer_ripped_straight_from_a_tv_scr.html

 

The constant harassment of Trump, and now Barr, by Dems and the MSM, DJT’s impeachment, the unparalleled hate mongering, the daily MSM and Dem attacks, the egregious lying and perhaps the coordinated rioting and protesting are intended to besmirch Trump and Barr’s reputations to diminish the impact of the coming indictments in the biggest political scandal in US history.  PS – Now we know another reason why Biden is hiding in his basement and refusing to do press conferences.

 

Most voters say Biden used vice presidency to enrich family and friends, poll finds

The [Rasmussen] poll found 53% of U.S. voters think it’s likely Joe Biden used his position as Vice President to benefit family and friends. Just 29% consider it unlikely…

https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/polling/poll-finds-most-voters-say-biden-used-vice-presidency-financially-benefit

 

The Democrat Establishment is reeling after the far-left’s Democrat Primary successes on Tuesday.

 

Progressives riding high as votes tabulated in NY, Kentucky – some of the left’s rising stars in position to potentially pull off upsets against candidates backed by Washington Democrats…

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/504302-progressives-riding-high-as-votes-tabulated-in-ny-kentucky

 

@CarolineGlick: It’s especially hard because Engel [Dem Rep, NY] was defeated by an anti-Israel extremist who made Engel’s support for Israel into a liability. The frequent allegation on the campaign trail that Engel cared about Israel more than his district was both wrong and deeply anti-Semitic.

 

Sen. @LindseyGrahamSC: Every elected Democrat in office, and every Democrat running for office, lives in fear of the mob and The Squad.   The idea of working with President @realDonaldTrump to accomplish objectives to help America is a one way ticket to political exile…

@johncardillo responding to Graham: So do you.  You’ve refused to hold hearings on the SDNY replacement unless Gillibrand and Schumer approve.

 

BET founder mocks crowds tearing down statues, calls them ‘borderline anarchists’

People tearing down statues “have the mistaken assumption that black people are sitting around cheering for them saying ‘Oh, my God, look at these white people. They’re doing something so important to us. They’re taking down the statue of a Civil War general who fought for the South,” Johnson said. “You know, black people, in my opinion, black people laugh at white people who do thisthe same way we laugh at white people who say we got to take off the TV shows.”…

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/bet-founder-mocks-crowds-statues

 

After being demolished by Tucker Carlson and social media for over a week, a few Republicans have found the courage to denounce rioting, anarchy and monument destruction.

 

@no_silenced: A congressman from Minnesota Rep. Jim Hagedorn(R) said that those aligned with Black Lives Matter in protest of police brutality are “at war” with “western culture”.  FINALLY, Republicans are opening their mouths….

 

House @GOPLeader: Last night in Wisconsin, protesters smashed windows, assaulted a state senator, and tore down statues—including one of an abolitionist who died trying to end slavery during the Civil War.  Nancy Pelosi describes this as “peaceful.” When will Democrats condemn this violence?!

 

Fox: Senate Democrats block GOP-authored police reform bill

 

De Blasio calls parents ‘privileged’ for mulling escape from city schools

https://nypost.com/2020/06/23/de-blasio-calls-parents-mulling-escape-from-city-schools-privileged/

 

Oregon county issues face mask order exempting non-white people [Violates federal law]

https://nypost.com/2020/06/23/oregon-county-issues-face-mask-order-exempting-non-white-people/

 

Eric Schmidt, Reid Hoffman donate millions to Dems while serving on Pentagon board

Former Google CEO Eric Schmidt and LinkedIn co-founder Reid Hoffman have given millions to political groups, including some that oppose President Trump, raising questions about their seats on a Pentagon advisory board, according to a report…. “Knowing that individuals who openly despise and undermine President Trump serve on those boards while only two of 15 people on our campaign’s national security advisory committee landed positions in the administration is nothing short of horrendous,” J.D. Gordon, who served as the Trump campaign’s national security adviser, told the Daily Caller… https://nypost.com/2020/06/24/eric-schmidt-reid-hoffman-support-dems-while-serving-on-pentagon-board/

 

@lawyer4laws: Nancy Pelosi: “If there is collateral damage for some who do not share our views, so be it.”   https://twitter.com/lawyer4laws/status/1275914845771182081

end

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