AUGUST 4//GOLD HAS A STELLAR DAY BREAKING THE 2,000 DOLLAR BARRIER TO $2003.15 UP $31.75//SILVER UP $1.45 TO $25.71//NO CHANGE IN GOLD TONNAGE AT THE COMEX//ANOTHER BIG INCREASE IN SILVER OZ STANDING FOR AUGUST//CHINA VS USA//CORONAVIRUS UPDATES/TURKEY IN A MESS TONIGHT AS OVERNIGHT RATES CLIMB TO 1024%: THEY HAVE RUN OUT OF RESERVES//LOOKS LIKE ISRAEL BLEW UP A WEAPONS DEPOT IN BEIRUT///SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

GOLD:$:  2003.15  UP $31.75  The quote is London spot price (cash market)

A NEW RECORD HIGH!!

 

 

 

Silver:$25.71// UP $1.45   London spot price ( cash market)

 

 

THE CARTEL JUST BLEW UP!!

THERE IS NO WAY THAT THEY CAN COVER THEIR MASSIVE SHORTFALL.

WE ARE PROBABLY 4 WEEKS BEFORE A PHYSICAL EXCHANGE BEGINS IN EARNEST IN LONDON

 

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Closing access prices:  London spot

i)Gold : $2019.00  LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

 

ii)SILVER:  $25.99//LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

CLOSING FUTURES PRICES:  KEY MONTHS

 

AUGUST GOLD:   $2002.00  CLOSE  1::30 PM  SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE AUG  (BACKWARD  $1.15)

OCT GOLD:  $2009.50  CLOSE 1.30 PM//   SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE OCT /:   PREMIUM: $6.35//(NORMAL CONTANGO

 

DEC. GOLD  $2022,20   CLOSE 1.30 PM      SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE DEC   $19.35   ($ 7.35 ABOVE NORMAL CONTANGO)

 

 

CLOSING SILVER FUTURE MONTH

 

SILVER SEPT COMEX CLOSE;   $25.97…1:30 PM.//SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE SEPT//  :  26 CENTS  PER OZ  (23 CENTS ABOVE NORMAL CONTANGO)

SILVER DECEMBER  CLOSE:     $26.21  1:30  PM SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE DEC.       : 50  CENTS PER OZ  ( 38 CENTS ABOVE NORMAL CONTANGO)

 

COMEX DATA

 

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

receiving today: 1780/5038

issued: 133  (JPMorgan)

issued Goldman Sachs:  4062

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: AUGUST 2020 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,966.000000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 08/03/2020 DELIVERY DATE: 08/05/2020
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
072 C GOLDMAN 4062 11
072 H GOLDMAN 943
104 C MIZUHO 118 412
118 H MACQUARIE FUT 17
135 H RAND 1
159 C ED&F MAN CAP 2 3
226 C DIRECT ACCESS 1
332 H STANDARD CHARTE 156
355 C CREDIT SUISSE 35
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 600
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 81
657 H MORGAN STANLEY 753
661 C JP MORGAN 133 1159
661 H JP MORGAN 621
686 C INTL FCSTONE 64 4
690 C ABN AMRO 27 124
700 C UBS 147
709 C BARCLAYS 456
709 H BARCLAYS 10
730 C PTG DIVISION SG 2
732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 18
737 C ADVANTAGE 12 34
800 C MAREX SPEC 3 29
880 C CITIGROUP 16
905 C ADM 17 5
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 5,038 5,038
MONTH TO DATE: 39,912

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  AUGUST CONTRACT: 5038 NOTICE(S) FOR 503,800 OZ  (15.67 tonnes)

 

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  39,912 NOTICES FOR 3,991,200 OZ  (124.14 TONNES)

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR AUGUST

 

 

218 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 1,090,000  OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month: 912 for 4.460 MILLION oz

 

BITCOIN MORNING QUOTE  $11,160  DOWN 66

 

BITCOIN AFTERNOON QUOTE.: $11,249 UP 29

 

GLD AND SLV INVENTORIES:

WITH GOLD UP $31.75 AND NO PHYSICAL TO BE FOUND ANYWHERE:

WITH ALL REFINERS CLOSED//MEXICO ORDERING ALL MINES SHUT:   WHERE ARE THEY GETTING THE “PHYSICAL?

A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/// A DEPOSIT OF 6.48 PAPER TONNES INTO THE GLD

 

 

 

 

GLD: 1,248.38 TONNES OF GOLD//

 

 

WITH SILVER UP $1.45 TODAY: AND WITH NO SILVER AROUND:

 

A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE  SLV: SURPRISINGLY:

A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.931 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//

 

 

 

RESTING SLV INVENTORY TONIGHT:

 

SLV: 567,161  MILLION OZ./

 

 

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Let us have a look at the data for today

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

IN SILVER THE COMEX OI ROSE BY A HUMONGOUS SIZED 6258 CONTRACTS FROM 193,375 UP TO 199,633, AND CLOSER TO OUR NEW RECORD OF 244,710, (FEB 25/2020. THE HUGE SIZED GAIN IN  OI OCCURRED WITH OUR $0.23 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. IT SEEMS THAT THE GAIN IN COMEX OI IS PRIMARILY DUE TO HUGE  BANKER SHORT COVERING PLUS A SMALL EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE, ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION, ACCOMPANYING  A STRONG INCREASE IN SILVER OZ. STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR AUGUST.  WE HAD A HUGE NET GAIN IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 6362 CONTRACTS  (SEE CALCULATIONS BELOW).

 

 

 

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A HUGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A SMALL SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE:   SEP 104 DEC:  0 FOR ZERO ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  104 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 104 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 500 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 0.500 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 23 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

7.32     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

2.630     MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOV.

20.970   MILLION OZ  FINAL STANDING IN DEC

5.075     MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JAN

1.480    MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN FEB

23.005  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAR

4.660  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR APRIL

45.220 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAY

2.205  MILLION OF FINAL STANDING FOR JUNE

86.470 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JULY.

5.800 MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST

 

MONDAY, AGAIN OUR CROOKS USED COPIOUS PAPER IN ORDER TO LIQUIDATE SILVER’S PRICE…AND THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE 23 CENTS ).. AND,OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS  WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE ANY SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR POSITIONS. THE HUGE GAIN AT THE COMEX WAS ACCOMPANIED BY : i)  A SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS 2) A STRONG INCREASE IN SILVER OZ STANDING  FOR AUGUST,  STRONG BANKER SHORT COVERING  AND 4) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AS  WE DID HAVE A HUGE NET GAIN OF 6362 CONTRACTS OR 31.181 MILLION OZ ON THE TWO EXCHANGES! YOU CAN BET THE FARM THAT OUR BANKER  ARE DESPERATE TO LIQUIDATE THEIR HUGE SHORT POSITIONS IN SILVER

 

SPREADING OPERATIONS/NOW SWITCHING TO SILVER

 

 

OUR SPREADING OPERATION HAS NOW SWITCHED INTO GOLD…..

SPREADING OPERATION FOR OUR NEWCOMERS:

 

FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS:

 

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED IN SILVER  AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF SEPT.

 

 

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEW, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE SPREADERS AND THE CRIMINAL ELEMENT BEHIND IT:

 HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

 

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR GOLD..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR SILVER.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

 

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

.

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO SILVER AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT FOR SILVER:

 

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF AUGUST. BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (SEPT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

 

 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

AUGUST

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY /FOR MONTH OF AUGUST:

1217 CONTRACTS (FOR 2 TRADING DAY(S) TOTAL 1217 CONTRACTS) OR 6.085 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 608 CONTRACTS OR 3.042 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF AUGUST: 6.085 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 0.86% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

 

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2020 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          1,277.45 MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2020 EFP TOTALS SO FAR: 181.61 MILLION OZ

FEB 2020 EFP’S TOTAL :  ……     259.600 MILLION OZ

MARCH EFP’S …..                     452.280 MILLION OZ  //TOTALS//AND A NEW RECORD FOR THE MONTH)

APRIL EFP                               95.355 MILLION OZ.  (EX. FOR PHYSICALS BECOMING A LOT LESS)

MAY EFP FINAL:                     77.27 MILLION OZ

JUNE EXP                              71.15 MILLION OZ.

JULY EXP                               133.95 MILLION OZ/ (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS STARTING TO RISE EXPONENTIALLY AGAIN)

AUGUST EXP                          6.085  MILLION OZ (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS INCREASING)

 

 

 

RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 6321, WITH OUR 23 CENT GAIN  IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ///MONDAY THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A SMALL SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 104 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER

 

TODAY WE GAINED AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:  6362 CONTRACTS (WITH OUR  $0.23 CENT GAIN IN PRICE)//

 

 

THE TALLY//EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

i.e 104 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH A HUGE SIZED INCREASE OF 6321 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 23 CENT GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER/AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $24.26 // MONDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY. 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 0.9980 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 142% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW AUGUST  DELIVERY MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 218 NOTICE(S) FOR 1,090,000  OZ OF SILVER.

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018. AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.70//TODAY’S RECORD OF 244,705 WAS SET WITH A PRICE OF: 18.91 (FEB 25/2020)

 

.

 

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 10.025 MILLION OZ/ SEPT 43.030 MILLION OZ//OCT: 7.665 MILLION OZ//   NOV: 2.630 MILLION OZ//DEC:  20.970 MILLION OZ; JAN:  5.075 MILLION OZ.//FEB 1.480 MILLION OZ//MAR: 23.005 MILLION OZ/APRIL 4.660 MILLION OZ//MAY  45.220 MILLION OZ//JUNE: 2.205 MILLION OZ// JULY 86.470 million oz//AUGUST 5.800 MILLION OZ//
  2. THE  RECORD PRIOR TO TODAY WAS SET IN FEB 25/2018:  244,710 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $18.90//.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

 

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 

GOLD

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 1676 CONTRACTS TO 557,933 AND FURTHER FROM  OUR NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE SMALL SIZED LOSS OF COMEX OI OCCURRED DESPITE OUR  RISE IN PRICE  OF $2.20 /// COMEX GOLD TRADING// MONDAY// WE  HAD HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING, A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN GOLD TONNAGE STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR AUGUST, ALONG WITH MINIMAL LONG LIQUIDATION ACCOMPANYING A SMALL EXCHANGE FOR  PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. THIS ALL HAPPENED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $2.20. 

 

 

WE HAD A VOLUME OF 0    4 -GC CONTRACTS//OPEN INTEREST  58

 

WE LOST A SMALL SIZED 1014 CONTRACTS  (3.153 TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

 

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

 

 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A SMALL SIZED 662 CONTRACTS:

CONTRACT .; AUG 0 AND OCT: 0 DEC: 662; FEB: 0  ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO//TOTAL: 662.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 557,933. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EXCHANGE DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 1014 CONTRACTS: 1947 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 662 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI LOSS OF 1014 CONTRACTS OR 3.996 TONNES. MONDAY, WE HAD A GAIN OF $2,20 IN GOLD TRADING……

AND WITH THAT GAIN IN  PRICE, WE HAD A SMALL SIZED LOSS IN  TOTAL/TWO EXCHANGES GOLD TONNAGE OF 3.153 TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS/OFFICIAL SECTOR  SUPPLIED INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER WITH RECKLESS ABANDON. THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE (IT ROSE $2.20).AND IT ALSO SEEMS THAT THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE ANY GOLD LONGS FROM THE GOLD ARENA WAS SOMEWHAT SUCCESSFUL AS SOME LONGS DEPARTED ON THE RAID MONDAY MORNING.

 

 

 

 

 

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:

WE HAD A SMALL SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS  (662) ACCOMPANYING THE SMALL SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI  (1676 OI): TOTAL LOSS IN THE TWO EXCHANGES:  1285 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1 )HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING, 2.)A SMALL DECREASE IN GOLD TONNAGE  STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR THE FRONT AUGUST MONTH,  3) MINIMAL LONG LIQUIDATION; 4) SMALL COMEX OI LOSS AND .5) SMALL EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE  AND  …ALL OF THIS WAS COUPLED WITH OUR GAIN IN GOLD PRICE TRADING//MONDAY//$2.20.

 

WE ARE BEGINNING TO WITNESS A LACK OF EXCHANGE FOR GOLD PHYSICALS UNDERWRITTEN DUE TO PREMIUMS STARTING TO REAPPEAR IN THE FUTURE PRICE OF GOLD VS LONDON SPOT. THE COST TO THE BANKERS IS JUST TOO GREAT TO ENGAGE IN THESE VEHICLES ONCE THIS OCCURS.

THE FACT THAT WE ARE CONTINUALLY SEEING A DROP IN COMEX OPEN INTEREST AND VOLUMES COUPLED WITH LESS EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS PROBABLY MEANS THAT OUR LONGS ARE ALREADY DEPARTING NEW YORK FOR THE NEW PHYSICAL PLATFORM AT LONDON’S LME.

 

 

 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2020 INCLUDING TODAY

AUGUST

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST : 2457, CONTRACTS OR 245,700, oz OR 7.64 TONNES (2 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 1229 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

 

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 2 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 7.64 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2019, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 7.64/3550 x 100% TONNES =0.215% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD HAS DISSIPATED THIS MONTHTHE COST TO THE BANKERS TO CARRY THESE CONTRACTS IN LONDON IS BECOMING TOO GREAT FOR THEM.

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2020 TO DATE   3266.18  TONNES

JANUARY 2220 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE; : 570.19 TONNES

FEB 2020 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE :            653.78 TONNES

MARCH TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE                1,098.93  TONNES  (*AND A NEW ALL TIME RECORD ISSUANCE//22 DAYS)

APRIL TOTAL EFP. ISSUANCE:               243.45  TONNES  (EFP ISSUANCE BECOMING A LOT LESS)

MAY TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                     248.68 TONNES (EFP ISSUANCE STILL LOW// PREMIUM COST TO THE BANKERS IS HUGE..SO ISSUANCE IS LESS)

JUNE TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                     192.06 TONNES

JULY TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;                       313.09 TONNES ..(EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS REVERSE COURSE AND ARE NOW INCREASING!)

AUGUST TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;                 7.64 TONNES

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

 

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, ROSE BY A HUGE SIZED 6258 CONTRACTS FROM 193,375 UP TO 199,633 AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 3/4 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

THE HUGE SIZED GAIN IN OI SILVER COMEX WAS PRIMARILY DUE TO;   1)   HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING , 2) A SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (SEE BELOW), 3) ANOTHER STRONG INCREASE IN SILVER OZ  STANDING AT THE SILVER COMEX FOR AUGUST,  AND  4) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION 

 

EFP ISSUANCE 104 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 SEPT: 104 AND DEC. 0 AND  ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 104 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI GAIN  OF 6321  CONTRACTS TO THE 104 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN AN ATMOSPHERIC GAIN OF 6362 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 31.81 MILLION  OZ, OCCURRED WITH OUR 23 CENT GAIN IN PRICE///

NOBODY IS LEAVING  THE SILVER ARENA AND NOBODY IS LEAVING THE GOLD ARENA!!

 

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL..THE EVIDENCE IS CLEAR: HUGE AMOUNTS OF PHYSICAL STANDING FOR BOTH  SILVER AND GOLD .

(report Harvey)

 

 

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)TUESDAY MORNING/ MONDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 3.72 POINTS OR 0.11%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 488.50 POINTS OR 2.06%   /The Nikkei closed UP 378.28 POINTS OR 1.70%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 1.86%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.9836 /Oil UP TO 40.35 dollars per barrel for WTI and 43.35 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 6.9836 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.9855 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED//CORONAVIRUS/PANDEMIC  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A SMALL  SIZED 1676 CONTRACTS TO 557,933 MOVING FURTHER FROM OUR  RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020).  AND ALL OF THIS SMALL COMEX DECREASE OCCURRED DESPITE OUR  GAIN OF $2.20 IN GOLD PRICING /MONDAY’S COMEX TRADING//). WE ALSO HAD A SMALL EFP ISSUANCE (662 CONTRACTS),.  THUS WE HAD 1) STRONG BANKER SHORT COVERING AT THE COMEX AND 2)  MINIMAL LONG LIQUIDATION AND 3)  SMALL DECREASE IN GOLD OZ  STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX//AUGUST DELIVERY MONTH (SEE BELOW) …  AS WE ENGINEERED A SMALL LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 1014 CONTRACTS DESPITE GOLD’S GAIN IN PRICE.  WE HAVE LATELY WITNESSED THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL….. AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. 

 

 

 

(SEE BELOW)

 

 

WE  HAD 0    4 -GC VOLUME//open interest REMAINS AT 58

 

 

 

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A SMALL SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 1662 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  AUG  0 , OCT: DEC 662; FEB 00 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 662 CONTRACTS.

YOU WILL FIND THAT WHEN WE HAVE A GOOD PREMIUM IN THE FUTURES/SPOT, THEN THE NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS DECLINE IN NUMBERS.  THE COST IS JUST TOO MUCH FOR THEM TO ISSUE. TODAY THAT PREMIUM WAS SMALL AND THUS A LITTLE MORE THAN USUAL OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WERE ISSUED.

 

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 1014 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 1662 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE LOST A SMALL SIZED 1676 COMEX CONTRACTS.  THE BANKERS PROVIDED ALL THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER TO WHICH OUR LONGS DUTIFULLY ACCEPTED AS THEY GOBBLED UP A SMALL AMOUNT OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WITH HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING, ACCOMPANYING OUR SMALL COMEX DECREASE IN GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR AUGUST…..  MINIMAL LONG LIQUIDATION, AND…..AND WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE WE HAD A RISE IN COMEX PRICE OF 2.20 DOLLARS..

 

 

THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT ROSE $2.20).  AND, THEY WERE SOMEWHAT SUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING SOME LONGS 

AS THE TOTAL LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES REGISTERED  3.153 TONNES.

 

 

NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES :: 1014, CONTRACTS OR 101,400 OZ OR 3.153 TONNES.

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT COMMODITY FUTURES OPEN INTEREST SHOULD APPROXIMATE 3% OF TOTAL PRODUCTION.  IN GOLD THE WORLD PRODUCES AROUND 3500 TONNES PER YEAR BUT ONLY 2200 TONNES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE WEST (THUS EXCLUDING RUSSIA, CHINA ETC..WHO KEEP 100% OF THEIR PRODUCTION)

THUS IN GOLD WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:  557,933 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS X 100 OZ PER CONTRACT = 55.79 MILLION OZ/32,150 OZ PER TONNE =  1735 TONNES

THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST REPRESENTS 1735/2200 OR 78.87% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF GOLD.

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 126,524 contracts// POOR volume//

 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  336,125 contracts//  volume FAIR //most of our traders have left for London

 

 

AUGUST 4 /2020

JULY GOLD CONTRACT MONTH

INITIAL STANDING FOR AUGUST GOLD

 

 

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
16,033.625 oz oz
HSBC
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz 328,490.991 oz

 

Brinks

Scotia

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

24,002.400

OZ

Delaware

Int. Delaware

includes

 

1000

KILOBARS

No of oz served (contracts) today
5038 notice(s)
 503800 OZ
(15.67 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
7554 contracts
(755,400 oz)
23.496 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
39912 notices
3,991,200 OZ
124.14 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

We had 2 deposit into the dealer

i) Int the dealer Brinks:  268,428.699 oz  (8.349 tonnes)

ii) Into Scotia:  60,042.292 oz  (1.86 tonnes)

 

 

 

 

total deposit: 328,490.991 oz  (10.209 tonnes)

 

DEALER WITHDRAWAL: 0

 

 

 

 

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had 2 deposit into the customer account

i) Into Delaware: 32,151.000 oz (1000 kilobars)

ii)Into Int. Delaware 24,002.400 oz .

 

 

total deposit:  56.153.400  oz

 

 

we had 1 gold withdrawals from the customer account:

 

i) Out of HSBC: 16,033.625 oz

 

 

 

total withdrawals;  16,033.625 oz  .49 tonnes)

 

 

We had 1  kilobar transactions  +

 

ADJUSTMENTS: 2 //

 

i)customer to dealer//JPM:  (eligible to registered)

283,752.239  oz adjusted out of th e customer and this lands into the dealer account

 

 

dealer to customer acct

ii)Brinks:

4,340.385 oz was adjusted out of the dealer and this lands into the customer account of Brinks

 

 

 

 

 

The front month of AUGUST registered a total of 12,592 CONTRACTS as we lost 2,163 contracts. We had 2142 notices served on Monday so we LOST 21 contracts or an additional 2100 will NOT stand for delivery on this side of the pond as they morphed into London based forwards as well as accepting a fiat bonus for their efforts.  They will try their luck over in London in trying to find physical metal.

 

 

 

After August we have the non active Sept contract month.. Here we saw another gain of 84 contracts to stand at 3260.  Oct GAINED 1484 contracts UP to 70,421

 

The big December contract lost 1170 contracts down to 408,390 contracts.

 

We had 5038 notices filed today for  503,800 oz

 

FOR THE AUGUST 2020 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 133 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 5038 contract(s) of which 621  notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 1159 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan//customer account and 11 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the AUGUST /2020. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (39,912) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  AUGUST (12,592 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today (5038 x 100 oz per contract) equals 4,7466 OZ OR 147.639 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this active month of JUNE

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the AUGUST/2020 contract month:

No of notices filed so far (39912, x 100 oz + (12,592 OI) for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (5038) x 100 oz which equals 4,746,600 oz standing OR 147.639 TONNES in this  active delivery month. This is a HUGE  amount for gold standing for a AUGUST delivery month (an active delivery month).

We lost a small 21 contracts or 2100 oz of gold morphed into London based forwards.  They received a fiat bonus for their effort.

 

 

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:  BRINKS

 

144,088.952 oz NOW PLEDGED  JAN 21.2020/HSBC  5.4807 TONNES

271,997.477 oz PLEDGED  JULY 9// 2020  JPMORGAN:  8.46 TONNES

42,548.308.00 PLEDGED  APRIL 3/2020: SCOTIA:            1.3234 tonnes

deleted Int. Delaware pledge July 7  (600 tonnes)

231,924.295 oz  (some deleted august 3)         JPM

653,730.982 oz pledged June 12/2020 Brinks/   july 2/july 21               20.333 tonnes

total pledged gold:  1,052,918.710 oz                                     32.75 tonnes

 

 

 

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES…. WE HAVE 442.20 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS i.e. 147.639 tonnes

CALCULATION OF REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SETTLED UPON:

total registered or dealer  15,269,690.804 oz or 474.95 tonnes
which  includes the following:
a) pledged gold held at HSBC   which cannot settled upon   144,088.952 oz x ( 4.4817 TONNES)//
b) pledged gold held at JPMorgan (SOME  DELETED JUNE 24 2020/SOME JULY 9; SOME JULY 22/July 03/august 3) which cannot be settled upon:  231,924.295 oz (or 7.2138 tonnes)
total pledged gold:
c)  pledged gold at Scotia: 1.3234 tonnes or 42,548.308 oz which cannot be settled  (1.3234 tonnes)
d) pledged gold at Manfra:  DELETED  MAY 26.2020
e) pledged gold at int.Del.    DELETED:   JULY 7.2020
f) pledged gold at Brinks:  DELETED july 2 and july 21
g) pledged gold at Brinks: 653,730.982 oz added which cannot be settled:  20.333 tonnes
total weight of pledged:  1,052,918.710 oz or 32.75 tonnes
thus:
registered gold that can be used to settle upon:  14,216,772.0  (442.20 tonnes)
true registered gold  (total registered – pledged tonnes  14,216,772.0 (442.20 tonnes)
total eligible gold:  21,445,352.203 oz (667.04 tonnes)

total registered, pledged  and eligible (customer) gold;   36,475,750.928 oz 1,134.54 tonnes (INCLUDES 4 GC GOLD)

total 4 GC gold:   126.34 tonnes

total gold net of 4 GC:  100.82 tonnes

 

end

 

I have compiled  data with respect to registered (or dealer) gold taken on first day notice for each of the past 24 months

The data begins on first day notice for the May month taken on the last day of April 2018. and it continues to present day.  Thus 24 data entry points.

 

I then took, how many deliveries were recorded by the CME for each and every month.  I also included for reference the price of gold on first day notice.

 

The first graph is a logarithmic  graph and the second graph, linear.

You can see the huge explosion of registered gold at the comex along with deliveries.  Gold owners are very clear people.  They would know full well that

the gold at the comex is unallocated and that they would not be stupid enough to keep their gold at the comex especially in the registered category once deliveries are asked upon. If physical gold was present it would be have removed from the comex… It shows there is no gold at the comex.  They are just trading in sticky paper.

 

 

THE GOLD COMEX SEEMS TO BE  UNDER SEVERE ASSAULT FOR PHYSICAL

 

END

AUGUST 4/2020

And now for the wild silver comex results

 

 

AUGUST SILVER COMEX CONTRACT MONTH//INITIAL STANDINGS

 

Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 1,358,593.547 oz
CNT
Delaware
Manfra

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
1,200,692.720 oz
CNT
Scotia
No of oz served today (contracts)
218
CONTRACT(S)
(1,090,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
248 contracts
 1,240,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  912 contracts

4,560,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
We had 0 deposit into the dealer:

total dealer deposits: nil  oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

 

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

i)we had 2 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:   nil oz

 

 

 

ii) Into CNT  600,211.620 oz

 

iii) Into CNT: 600,481,100 oz

 

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017, 2018 and onward, has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 163.098 million oz of  total silver inventory or 48,69% of all official comex silver. (163.677 million/336.125 million

 

total customer deposits today:  1,200,692.720    oz

we had 3 withdrawals:

 

 

 

i) Out of Delaware: 8845.157 oz

ii) Out of CNT:  1,203,757.500 oz

iii) Out of Manfra: 145,990.890 oz

 

 

 

total withdrawals; 1,358,593.547    oz

We had 0 adjustments

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

the front month of August registered an open interest of 466 contracts and thus we lost 168 contracts.  We had 219 notices filed on Monday so we gained a huge 51 contracts or 255,000 oz will stand for delivery as they refused to morph into London based forwards and they thus negated a fiat bonus. The bankers are now desperate in their search for badly needed silver and for that matter gold.

 

 

After August we have the  big September contract month and here we see a gain of 2440 contracts up to 134.024. November saw another gain of 4 contracts to stand at 6.

The big December contract month saw its OI rise by 3594 contracts up to 56,134

 

The total number of notices filed today for the AUGUST 2020. contract month is represented by 218 contract(s) FOR 1,090,000, oz

 

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in AUGUST we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 912 x 5,000 oz = 4,560,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of AUGUST.(466) and the number of notices served upon today 218 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

 

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the AUGUST/2019 contract month: 912 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of AUGUST (466)- number of notices served upon today (218) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the AUGUST contract month.equals 5,800,000 oz. ..VERY STRONG FOR A NON ACTIVE MONTH.

 

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME : 149,164 CONTRACTS // volume huge+++/

 

 

FOR FRIDAY: 92,929.,CONFIRMED VOLUME//volume huge+/

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 92,929 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 0.464 billion  OZ 66.3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

 

NPV for Sprott

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV  FALLS TO- 1.52% ((AUGUST 4/2020)

2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV  FALLS TO -0.81% to NAV:   (AUGUST 4/2020 )

Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ 1.52%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA

3. SPROTT CEF .A   FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 20.70 TRADING 20.46///NEGATIVE 1.16

END

 

 

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

AUGUST 4//WITH GOLD UP $31.75 TODAY, WE HAVE A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A DEPOSIT OF 6.48 TONNES/GLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 1248.38 TONNES

AUGUST 3/WITH GOLD UP $2.20 TODAY, WE HAVE NO CHANGES IN THE GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1241,96 TONNES

JULY 31/WITH GOLD UP $17.90 TODAY/WE HAVE NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1241.96 TONNES.

JULY 30/WITH GOLD DOWN  $10.00 TODAY, WE HAVE ANOTHER SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1241.96 TONNES.

JULY 29//WITH GOLD UP  $12.45 TODAY, WE HAVE ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 8.47 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1243.12 TONNES

JULY 28///WITH GOLD UP $13.25 TODAY, WE HAVE ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 5.84 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1234.65

JULY 27//WITH GOLD UP $35.30 TODAY, WE HAVE NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A DEPOSIT OF XXX TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1228.81 TONNES

JULY 24/WITH GOLD UP $8.80 TODAY: WE HAVE ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.80 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1228.81 TONNES

JULY 23/WITH GOLD UP $24.90 TODAY: WE HAVE A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A DEPOSIT OF 7.26 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1225.01 TONNES

JULY 22/WITH GOLD UP $22.00 TODAY: WE HAVE A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/ A DEPOSIT OF 7.89 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1219.75 TONNES

JULY 21//WITH GOLD UP $26.00 TODAY, WE HAVE A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.97 TONNES INTO THE GLD// INVENTORY RESTS AT 1211.86 TONNES

JULY 20/WITH GOLD UP $7.70 TODAY, WE HAVE NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1206.89 TONNES

JULY 17/WITH GOLD UP $7.70 TODAY, WE HAVE NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: /INVENTORY RESTS AT 1206.89 TONNES

JULY 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.80 TODAY, WE HAVE NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: INVENTORY RESTS AT 1206.89 TONNES

JULY 15//WITH GOLD UP $1.55 TODAY/A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A DEPOSIT OF 2.96 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1206.89 TONNES

JULY 14//WITH GOLD DOWN $1.65 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/A DEPOSIT OF 3.51 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1203.97 TONNES

JULY 13//WITH GOLD UP $12.50 TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.36 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1200.46 TONNES

JULY 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $.50 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A STRANGE WITHDRAWAL  OF 1.75 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1200.82 TONNES

JULY 9//WITH GOLD DOWN $11.75 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OX 3.21 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1202.57 TONNES

JULY 8/WITH GOLD UP $13.75 TODAY; A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 7.89 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1199.36 TONNES

JULY 7/WITH GOLD UP $12.50 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: /INVENTORY RESTS AT 1191.47 TONNES

JULY 6/WITH GOLD UP $6.50 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 9.36 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1191.47 TONNES

JULY 2/WITH GOLD UP $7.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.21 TONNES INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1182.11 TONNES

JULY 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.90//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: /INVENTORY RESTS AT 1178.90 TONNES

JUNE 30//WITH GOLD UP $16.50 TODAY: NO CHANGE  IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1178.90 TONNES

JUNE 29/WITH GOLD UP $2.90 TODAY: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 3.61 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1178.90 TONNES

JUNE 26/WITH GOLD UP $5.03 TODAY: VERY STRANGE: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL  OF 1.46 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1175.39 TONNES

JUNE 25//WITH GOLD DOWN $3.30 TODAY//ANOTHER STRONG PAPER DEPOSIT OF 7.6 TONNES///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1176.85 TONNES

JUNE 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.50 TODAY;  A STRONG 3.21 TONNES ADDED TO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1169.25  TONNES

JUNE 23/WITH GOLD UP $25.50 TODAY/ANOTHER CRIMINAL PAPER DEPOSIT OF 6.73 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1166.04 TONNES

JUNE 22/WITH GOLD UP $14.00 A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 23.09 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1159.31 TONNES

JUNE 19/WITH GOLD UP$16.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//; INVENTORY RESTS AT 1136.22 TONNES

JUNE 18//WITH GOLD DOWN $2.75 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY: INVENTORY RESTS AT 1136.22 TONNES

JUNE 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.05: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1136.22 TONNES

JUNE 16//WITH GOLD UP $6.70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY: /INVENTORY RESTS AT 1136.22 TONNES

JUNE 15/WITH GOLD DOWN ANOTHER $8.80 TODAY, NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1136.22 TONNES

JUNE 12//WITH GOLD DOWN $1.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 1.17 TONNES AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1136.22 TONNES

JUNE 11//WITH GOLD UP $16.80 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 6.55 TONNES AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1135.05 TONNES

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

Inventory rests tonight at

AUGUST 4/ GLD INVENTORY 1248.38 tonnes*

LAST;  873 TRADING DAYS:   +308.94 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN ADDED THE GLD

 

LAST 773 TRADING DAYS://+487.41  TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

 

end

 

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

AUGUST 4/WITH SILVER UP $1.45 TODAY, WE HAVE A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: //INVENTORY RESTS AT 367.161 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 3/WITH SILVER UP 23 CENTS TODAY: WE HAVE A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//SURPRISINGLY ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 0.931 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 367.161 MILLION OZ//

JULY 31/WITH SILVER UP 82 CENTS TODAY: WE HAVE A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: SURPRISINGLY A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.26 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 368.092 MILLION OZ//

JULY 30//WITH SILVER DOWN 97 CENTS TODAY: WE HAVE A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL  OF 0.931 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 571.352 MILLION OZ//

JULY 29/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY, WE HAD A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY//A DEPOSIT OF 5.984 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 572.283 MILLION OZ//

JULY 28  WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY, WE HAD A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 7.52 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 566.299 MILLION OZ//

JULY 27/WITH SILVER UP $2.67 TODAY, WE HAD NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF XX MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 558.779 MILLION OZ//

JULY 24/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.12 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 558.779 MILLION OZ/

JULY 23/WITH SILVER UP $.04 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A HUMONGOUS PAPER DEPOSIT OF 9.594 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 558.779 MILLION OZ///

JULY 22/WITH SILVER UP $1.54 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A HUMONGOUS PAPER DEPOSIT OF 7.218 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 549.185 MILLION OZ/

JULY 21/WITH SILVER UP $1.38 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A HUMONGOUS PAPER DEPOSIT OF 15.368 MILLION OZ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 541.967 MILLION OZ//

JULY 20/WITH SILVER UP 40 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:  A MASSIVE PAPER DEPOSIT OF 3.819 MILLION OZ ‘ENTERED” THE SLV..INVENTORY RESTS AT 526.599 MILLION OZ/

JULY 17/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A DEPOSIT OF 1.583 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 522.780 MILLION OZ//

JULY 16//WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF  5.123 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 521.197 MILLION OZ..

JULY 15.WITH SILVER  UP 21 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.956 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 516.074 MILLION OZ//

JULY 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY REST AT 514.118 MILLION OZ//

JULY 13//WITH SILVER UP 67 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.677 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 514.118 MILLION OZ//

JULY 10/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A DEPOSIT OF 4.844 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT  515.795 MILLION OZ

WHAT A FRAUD!!

JULY 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A DEPOSIT OF 8.198 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 510.951 MILLION OZ/

JULY 8/WITH SILVER UP 37 CENTS TODAY//A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.118 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//VERY SURPRISING.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 502.753 MILLION OZ//

JULY 7/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 503.871 MILLION OZ///

JULY 6//WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.863 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 503.871 MILLION OZ

JULY 2/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//: A DEPOSIT OF 4.01 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 502.008 MILLION OZ

JULY 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 5.403 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.007 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 30/WITH SILVER UP 39 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.604 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 29/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY: A TWO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 466,000 OZ TO PAY FOR STORAGE FEES AND INSURANCE//// AND A LARGE DEPOSIT OF 1.212 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.604 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 26/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ RESTS AT 491.858 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 25/WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 931,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.858 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 24///WITH SILVER DOWN 31 CENTS// NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.927 MILLION OZ

JUNE 23//WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY: A MONSTROUS CHANGE IN INVENTORY: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 4.473 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.927 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 22/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 486/454 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 19//WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS TODAY: STRANGE!!  A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 839,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 486,454 MILLION OZ..

JUNE 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 932,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.293 MILLION OZ

JUNE 17/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.261 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY REST AT 486.361 MILLION OZ

JUNE 16//WITH SILVER UP 20 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.118 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.100 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: //INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.982  MILLION OZ///

JUNE 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 30 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: TWO DEPOSITS OF 7.269 MILLION OZ AND 1.802 MILLION OZ ADDED TO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS THIS WEEKEND AT 481.982 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 11//WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.89 MILLION OZ//

 

AUGUST 4.2020:

SLV INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT

567.161 MILLION OZ.

end

 

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

 

 

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

Ren correctly states that some gold should be in some portfolios in place of bonds as we approach negative rates

(Ren/Bloomberg/GATA)

Shuli Ren: Gold can do what bonds can’t in a super-low-rate world

 Section: 

By Shuli Ren
Bloomberg News
Monday, August 3, 2020

in the past decade, a traditional 60/40 portfolio of stocks and bonds, as represented by the S&P 500 index and long-term government bonds, was a winner. But with U.S. bond yields moving toward zero or even negative territory, it may be time to rethink that mix.

One thought: How about swapping out some bonds for gold?

In normal times, bonds serve as a hedge against falling stock prices, because they tend to rise in value when equities slump in an economic downturn. But this relationship starts to break down when government bond yields stay down for long periods—especially when they’re low as a result of central bank policy.

Moreover, we may be on the brink of an inflationary period, which would be bad for both stocks and bonds. The Federal Reserve has been flooding the financial system with cash: In just three months, assets held by the Fed ballooned by two-thirds, to almost $7 trillion, from $4.2 trillion in early March. Both monetary and fiscal stimulus have been larger than they were during the financial crisis. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-03/stock-market-gold-may…

END

What is the Fed trying to hide?  The 3 earlier emergency lending programs still has hidden transactions

(Pam and Russ Martens/Wall Street on Parade)

 

Pam and Russ Martens: The Fed has hidden the transactions of three emergency lending programs

 Section: 

Correcting the Wall Street on Parade link at the bottom.

* * *

By Pam and Russ Martens
Wall Street on Parade
Monday, August 3, 2020

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and Randal Quarles, the vice chairman for supervision at the Fed, have stated in testimony before Congress that they would be providing transaction level details of their Section 13(3) Emergency Lending Facilities on a regular, ongoing basis.

But the three oldest of those facilities, the Primary Dealer Credit Facility, the Commercial Paper Funding Facility, and the Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility, which were all created more than four months ago in mid-March, have yet to release any transaction level details to the public.

… 

The Fed is required to provide reports every 30 days on its emergency lending facilities. Those reports are located at this Fed website:

https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/reports-to-congress-in-respo…

If you scroll down, you will find that transaction-level reports have been provided for four of the Fed’s emergency lending programs. But the three programs listed above, which are the oldest of the programs, have no transaction-level details.

Without the transaction-level details, the public has no idea which Wall Street banks or trading firms are borrowing from the Fed. Without this transaction-level detail, the public has no way of discerning if one or more particular banks are facing a liquidity squeeze, as happened in September 2008.

What is the Fed attempting to hide from the American people and why is Congress letting it get away with it? …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://wallstreetonparade.com/2020/08/the-fed-has-secreted-away-the-tra…

The Fed Has Secreted Away the Transactions of Three of Its Emergency Lending Programs

Fed Board of Governors

(Left to right, top) Fed Chairman Jerome Powell; Randal Quarles, Vice Chair for Supervision; Richard Clarida, Vice Chair; (left to right, bottom) Lael Brainard, Michelle Bowman.

By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: August 3, 2020 ~

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and Randal Quarles, the Vice Chairman for Supervision at the Fed, have stated in testimony before Congress that they would be providing transaction level details of their Section 13(3) Emergency Lending Facilities on a regular, ongoing basis. But the three oldest of those facilities, the Primary Dealer Credit Facility (PDCF), the Commercial Paper Funding Facility (CPFF), and the Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility(MMLF), which were all created more than four months ago in mid-March, have yet to release any transaction level details to the public.

The Fed is required to provide reports every 30 days on its emergency lending facilities. Those reports are located at this Fed website. If you scroll down, you will find that transaction level reports have been provided for four of the Fed’s emergency lending programs. But the three programs listed above, which are the oldest of the programs, have no transaction level details.

Without the transaction level details, the public has no idea which Wall Street banks or trading firms are borrowing from the Fed. Without this transaction level detail, the public has no way of discerning if one or more particular banks are facing a liquidity squeeze, as happened in September 2008.

What is the Fed attempting to hide from the American people and why is Congress letting it get away with it?

Our best analysis suggests that the silence from both the Democrats and the Republicans in Congress results from the following: Just months before a critical presidential election, the Democrats would have to admit that the Dodd-Frank legislation of 2010 that was signed into law by President Obama when Democrats controlled both houses of Congress, did not get the job done in making the U.S. financial system safer after the worst financial collapse in 2008 since the Great Depression. That might provide a nasty reminder that it was another Wall Street Democrat in the White House, Bill Clinton, that set that train wreck in motion nine years earlier by repealing the Glass-Steagall Act in 1999 in order to please Sandy Weill at Citigroup and the New York Times editorial board.

Republicans in Congress don’t want to broach the subject either because they have spent the last four years rolling back even the weak protections that existed in the Dodd-Frank legislation.

We know from the Fed’s weekly release of the line items on its balance sheet that as of April 8, just a few weeks after these three programs started, the Primary Dealer Credit Facility had ballooned to Fed loans of $33 billion while the Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility had soared to $53 billion in loans.

The Commercial Paper Funding Facility (CPFF) grew far more slowly but has made some wild moves that should be raising concerns in Congress, since this is the same kind of market stress that occurred during the last financial crisis. According to the Fed’s balance sheet, as of May 20, the CPFF stood at $4.3 billion, but one week later, on May 27, it had almost tripled to $12.8 billion, strongly suggesting that a large financial institution could not roll over its commercial paper, had nowhere else to turn, and had to come to the Fed as lender of last resort.

The Primary Dealer Credit Facility (PDCF) is the most notorious of these Fed programs, having secretly funneled $8.95 trillion cumulatively in below-market rate loans to Wall Street’s mega banks and their global bank derivative counterparties during the financial crisis of 2007 to 2010, according to a government audit.

The Fed battled in court for years to keep the details of the PDCF and its sibling Wall Street bailout programs behind a dark curtain. Thanks to an amendment attached to the Dodd-Frank financial reform legislation of 2010 by Senator Bernie Sanders, the Government Accountability Office (GAO) was instructed to conduct an audit of the PDCF and the rest of the alphabet soup of programs created by the Fed. When the audit was released in July 2011, Sanders said this:

“As a result of this audit, we now know that the Federal Reserve provided more than $16 trillion in total financial assistance to some of the largest financial institutions and corporations in the United States and throughout the world…No agency of the United States government should be allowed to bailout a foreign bank or corporation without the direct approval of Congress and the president.” (See chart below.)

But the GAO audit did not include all of the Fed’s emergency programs. When the Levy Economics Institute did its own tally, using the Fed’s own transaction data, the total assistance came to $29 trillion.

We learned from the GAO audit that the Primary Dealer Credit Facility was the largest Wall Street bailout program during the financial crisis. It issued 1,376 loans that cumulatively totaled $8.95 trillion. Then, as now, the Fed attempted to sell the program as helping American workers and businesses. It did no such thing. It went to bail out the bad bets made by the trading and derivative desks at the mega Wall Street banks. Of the $8.95 trillion in loans issued by the PDCF, $5.7 trillion, or 64 percent, went to Citigroup, Morgan Stanley and Merrill Lynch according to the GAO audit.

It’s time for Congress to step up to the plate and demand a full accounting from the Fed on behalf of the American people.

GAO Data on Emergency Lending Programs During Financial Crisis

GAO Data on Fed’s Emergency Lending Programs During Financial Crisis

END

iii) Other physical stories:

Our banker friends are in a mess today:  Gold futures top 2,000 dollars and all of those huge out of the money calls underwritten by the banks are now in the money.

(zerohedge)

Gold Futures Top $2,000

For the third time in a week, gold futures have spiked above the Maginot Line of $2,000.

The record high gold futures price is $2009.50 from Sunday night…

The dollar is following the same path as yesterday with a big overnight spike and selloff during the US session…

With yields tumbling to record lows, spreading negative-yielding debt around the world, demand for the zero-yield precious metal continues to rise…

 

END

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early TUESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 6.9836/ GETTING VERY DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.9855   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 3.72 POINTS OR 0.11%

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 488.50 POINTS OR 2.06%

 

2. Nikkei closed UP 378.28 POINTS OR 1.70%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL RED/

 

 

 

USA dollar index UP TO 93.73/Euro FALLS TO 1.1731

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. +.015/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 106.18/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 40.25 and Brent: 43.35

3f Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE DOWN/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO -.55%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 0.97% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.29%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.54: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 1.05

3k Gold at $1975.00 silver at: 24.35   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 80/100 in roubles/dollar) 73.95

3m oil into the 40 dollar handle for WTI and 43 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 106.18 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9161 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0749 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to 0.55%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 0.53% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 1.19%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 6.9739..

Futures Slide On US-China Tensions, Fiscal Stimulus Worries, Poor Earnings

S&P futures posted a rare overnight drop alongside shares in Europe as President Trump’s moves to force China-owned TikTok into a sale of its U.S. operations drew a sharp rebuke from Beijing, ratcheting up tensions as the world slides into a pandemic-fueled recession; at the same time a string of poor earnings illustrated the continuing hit from the pandemic while jittery investors also awaited news on whether fresh fiscal stimulus in the U.S. will get approval. The dollar reversed overnight losses and 10Y yields tumbled back to all time lows.

On Monday, the S&P 500 closed Monday within 3% of its all-time high, powered over the past four months by a stimulus-led rebound and a rally in tech-related stocks including Apple Inc, Netflix Inc and Amazon.com Inc. In earnings-related news, insurer AIG fell 2.8% in premarket trading after posting a 56% fall in quarterly adjusted earnings. Take-Two Interactive Software Inc O) rose 4.7% as it raised its annual adjusted sales forecast on demand for its videogame franchises “Grand Theft Auto” and “NBA 2K”. Rival Activision Blizzard Inc gained 3.8% ahead of its results due after the closing bell.

“We see U.S. stocks at risk of fading fiscal stimulus,” BlackRock Investment Institute strategists led by Mike Pyle wrote in a note. “U.S. employment figures are in focus this week as this fiscal cliff nears and the pandemic’s spread in Sunbelt states is starting to affect economic activity.”

The MSCI world equity index was up 0.4% after reaching a five-month high on Tuesday morning. Friction between the world’s top two economies took a back seat in the first half of 2020 as the COVID-19 pandemic crushed global growth, and an escalation now would hamper the recovery of some exporters and importers and fan fears of a deeper economic slump. With Microsoft Corp looking to buy short-video app TikTok’s U.S. operations, Trump said on Monday the U.S. government should get a “substantial portion” of any deal price. On Tuesday, state-backed newspaper China Daily said the country will not accept the “theft” of the technology company. Investors are also focused on whether U.S. Congress will approve fresh stimulus. The pressure is building, with the Senate set to leave on a break Friday, when crucial job data is due.

Europe’s Stoxx 600 reversed an early gain of as much as 0.6%, dropping 0.4%, and London’s FTSE 100 flat on the day with defensives shares among the worst performers. Disappointing earnings reports from the world’s largest spirits maker, Diageo Plc and German drugs and pesticides giant Bayer took the shine off growth-linked cyclical stocks. Food-and-drink shares fall the most after Diageo slumps on sales miss. Health-care shares also lag, while autos and banks outperform and BP boosts oil-and-gas shares. Shares in BP jumped after it cut its dividend and posted a record loss that was in line with expectations. On the other end, the Stoxx 600 Automobiles & Parts Index rises as much as 2.4% after Renault’s CEO outlines a focus on margins, Bankhaus Metzler double-upgrades Daimler on profitability prospects and Jefferies analysts say 2Q results support current terms for the PSA Group-Fiat Chrysler merger. The automotive index was +1.7% at 1:35pm in Paris, with Renault +5.5%, Nokian Renkaat +4.1%, PSA +3.7%, Fiat Chrysler +3.4%, BMW +2.2%; non-index member Schaeffler +8.6%. The sector has second-biggest gain in Stoxx Europe 600 Index, which is down 0.4%

Earlier in the session, stocks in most Asian markets rose, with gauges in Japan, Hong Kong, Shanghai, Taiwan and South Korea advancing led by energy and industrials, after rising in the last session. All markets in the region were up, with Japan’s Topix Index gaining 2.1% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index surged in afternoon trade, with property stocks leading gains. The gauge rose as much as 2.2%, the most since July 21, before paring the gain to 1.9% led by Wharf Real Estate Investment +7% and New World Development +4.1%. Japan’s Topix gained 2.1%, with GSI Creos and Plant rising the most. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.1%, with Heilongjiang Interchina Water Treatment and North Navigation Control Technology posting the biggest advances.

As noted above, U.S.-China tensions worsened as President Donald Trump said that he will ban Chinese app TikTok in the U.S. unless a tech company such as Microsoft buys it. China said it would not accept the “theft” of a Chinese company and that is has “plenty of ways to respond if the administration carries out its planned smash and grab.”

“This kind of rhetoric lines up with our view that U.S.-China frictions may increase into the U.S. elections, injecting volatility into related assets like China tech ADRs (American Depository Receipts) while also supporting insurance assets like gold,” wrote UBS Global Wealth Management’s chief investment officer, Mark Haefele.

The United States and China are also clashing over Chinese journalists working in the United States, who may be forced to leave the country if their visas are not extended.

Elsewhere, investors were waiting for Washington to make progress in talks over the next round of fiscal stimulus. A $600-per-week enhanced unemployment benefit, which provided a lifeline for the tens of millions of Americans who lost their jobs due to the pandemic, expired on Friday. Lawmakers said they had made “progress” in the talks, and U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi will meet again with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows on Tuesday, raising hopes for a breakthrough.

“A second wave of Covid-19, contested elections, civil unrest and escalating tensions with China could provide a toxic cocktail for the final quarter of the year,” Philip Marey, senior U.S. strategist at Rabobank, wrote in the bank’s monthly outlook. Marey said that he expects another economic contraction, or at least a “substantial slowdown” in the fourth quarter, which could force the Federal Reserve into action.

“If they don’t want to cut policy rates below zero, yield curve control is the next logical step,” he said. “Meanwhile, any failure by Congress and the White House to provide sufficient fiscal stimulus going forward will only speed up the Fed’s thinking process.”

In FX, the dollar rebounded from a new bout of overnight selling, as traders re- balanced their portfolios in the run-up to key U.S. economic data releases this week. The Australian dollar’s rally followed the central bank’s pledge to resume quantitative easing from Wednesday; the euro and Swiss franc also climbed. Japanese government bonds edged higher after an auction of 10-year debt attracted decent demand, while the yen halted a two-day loss

In rates, 10-year TSY yields were around 0.54%, richer by ~2bp vs Monday’s close; Bunds outperformed slightly with ten-year German bond yields edged down to -0.5400%, but remained above the two-month lows reached at the end of last week. European peripherals outperform, led by Portugal and Spain.

Long-end Treasuries were near session highs after catching a bid in London hours as S&P 500 E-mini futures pared gains, flattening the yield curve. Price action has been broadly muted ahead of Wednesday’s supply announcement, however, while another heavy IG credit issuance slate is possible following Monday’s strong start to the week. Yields lower by 1bp to 2.5bp from belly out to long end, flattening 2s10s spread by nearly 2bp, 5s30s by 1.4bp

Spot gold edged down from all-time highs, at $1,974.3033 per ounce, amid mounting COVID-19 cases and a warning from the World Health Organization that the road to normality would be long. Oil prices slipped on fears that a new wave of COVID-19 infections could curtail a pick-up in fuel demand, just as major producers ramp up output. WTI crude futures fell 59 cents, or 1.44% to $40.42 a barrel. Brent crude futures fell 59 cents, or 1.3% to $43.56 a barrel

Looking at the day ahead, economic data include June factory orders and final reading for durable goods. Disney, Fox Corp, Activision Blizzard, Twilio and KKR are due to report earnings

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.3% to 3,279.25
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.2% to 362.90
  • MXAP up 1.7% to 168.02
  • MXAPJ up 1.5% to 558.93
  • Nikkei up 1.7% to 22,573.66
  • Topix up 2.1% to 1,555.26
  • Hang Seng Index up 2% to 24,946.63
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.1% to 3,371.69
  • Sensex up 1.6% to 37,535.54
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 1.9% to 6,037.55
  • Kospi up 1.3% to 2,279.97
  • Brent futures down 1% to $43.72/bbl
  • Gold spot unchanged at $1,976.95
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.06% to 93.49
  • German 10Y yield fell 1.0 bps to -0.533%
  • Euro up 0.1% to $1.1776
  • Brent Futures down 1% to $43.72/bbl
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 0.5 bps to 0.882%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 3.7 bps to 0.299%

Top Overnight News

  • House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin head into another round of negotiations on a new virus relief package after talks on Monday yielded “a little bit” of progress
  • With the talks dragging on, President Donald Trump on Monday said he was considering executive action to restore a moratorium on evictions that expired, and the White House was looking at other steps the administration could take without action by Congress
  • China’s government may take action against Washington, if a sale of TikTok’s U.S. operations to Microsoft Corp. is forced, the state-run China Daily said in an editorial
  • California and Arizona reported fewer new coronavirus cases after battling a surge in infections last month, while Germany and Poland recorded increases
  • BP Plc slashed its dividend for the first time in a decade after the coronavirus pandemic upended the oil business

Asian equity markets traded positively as the region took its cue from the constructive handover from Wall St where sentiment was underpinned by strong ISM Manufacturing PMI data and with advances led by a continued tech rally after Apple shares extended on record highs and with Microsoft the biggest gainer in the DJIA amid a potential TikTok acquisition. ASX 200 (+1.9%) outperformed and broke above the 6000 level as tech names found inspiration from their counterparts stateside and a potential WFH boost due to the impending tougher lockdown restrictions in Victoria state, with notable strength also seen in the top-weighted financials sector. Nikkei 225 (+1.7%) remained underpinned by favourable currency flows and with slight encouragement also provided by firmer than expected Tokyo inflation data, as well as comments from BoJ Governor Kuroda that the central bank could extend the period of corporate support. Hang Seng (+2.2%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.1%) conformed to the upbeat tone but with less conviction in the mainland after another notable liquidity drain by the PBoC and continued US-China tensions with the US attempt to force a sale of TikTok being branded by Chinese press as a robbery and with allegations from US Secretary of State Pompeo that the Chinese Communist Party is running an espionage operation in the US. 10yr JGBs were initially flat with demand sapped by the gains in Tokyo stocks and as participants were sidelined ahead of the 10yr JGB auction which saw mixed results but nonetheless attracted higher prices and eventually spurred 10yr JGBs in late trade.

Top Asian News

  • RBA Keeps Key Rate, Yield Unchanged, Will Resume Bond Purchases
  • Modi Reimposes Kashmir Clampdown a Year After Autonomy Ended
  • Most Valuable Indian Lender Gets New Chief After 26 Years
  • China’s Hottest Stocks Stumble in Push Toward Five Year- High

The initial optimism seen in Europe at the cash open somewhat petered out – with the region now posting a mixed performance despite a lack of fresh fundamental catalysts and a positive APAC handover. No major under/outperformers are seen across major European bourses, but DAX saw a notable reversal into negative territory from a firm positive performance earlier in the session – potentially on the back of heavyweight Bayer (-3.3%) extending on post-earnings losses after cutting its guidance, whilst the turnaround in the tech sector prompted SAP (-2.5%) to tumble to the bottom of the index, albeit Infineon (+4.7%) remains positive despite the broader erosion in the tech sector after raising its revenue guidance.. Sectors are now mixed as earlier gains recede, albeit the detailed breakdown sees cyclical sectors Oil & Gas, Autos, Bank and Travel & Leisure retaining their top positions whilst defensives hold onto losses. The auto sector has seen little by way of fresh news, although pre-market, the German Ifo institute noted that the auto industry business expectations rose significantly for a second straight month, thus potentially underpinning the sector. Individual movers largely consist of earnings: BP (+7.5%) extends on gains despite a 50% cut to dividends after posting a smaller than expected loss and noting that the current financial breakeven is at USD 40/bbl. Diageo (-5.5%) holds onto losses after missing on expectations across the main metrics whilst refraining from providing guidance. Easyjet (+12%) drifts higher after upping its Q4 capacity to 40% from the prior 30%, with the performance also supporting the likes of Air France-KLN (+5.5%), Lufthansa (+3.5%) and peers. Other earnings-related movers include Hugo Boss (+2.1%), Fraport (+0.3%), Evonik (+3.6%) and Metro AG (+4%).

Top European News

  • Bond Titans Led by Pimco Double Down on Their Bet on Europe
  • Former King Abandons Spain in Disgrace as Legal Woes Pile Up
  • Schaeffler Mulls More Cost-Cutting to Deal With Covid Crisis
  • German Bonds Fated to Stay Rich If ECB Has Any Say: Markets Live

In FX, it remains to be seen whether the Buck stops retreating and stages another rebound, but for now it looks as though yesterday’s narrow failure to recapture the 94.000 level in DXY terms was telling from a psychological standpoint if nothing else. Indeed, the index has drifted down from a lower 93.612 high through 93.500 to 93.268 and lost inverse correlation with broad risk sentiment that briefly returned yesterday. Ahead, relatively 2nd tier data scheduled and unlikely to have a major impact given the lack of meaningful or last reaction to Monday’s manufacturing ISM that was largely better than expected in headline and sub-component terms. However, technical factors may direct trade given near term support at 93.169 and resistance at 93.997 ahead of last Friday’s 94.007 high.

  • AUD/EUR/CHF/CAD – The Aussie has taken advantage of Greenback’s pull-back to reclaim 0.7100+ status and the 10 DMA (0.7144) in wake of the RBA policy meeting that maintained rates and guidance, but in acknowledgement of the COVID-19 resurgence in Victoria will see the Bank resurrect its QE program from Wednesday. Elsewhere, the Euro has retested 1.1800 from Monday’s low just under 1.1700 and the Franc is back over 0.9200, with the former topping out ahead of Fib resistance at 1.1823 and the latter into 0.9150, while the Loonie is meandering between 1.3404-1.3360 parameters in the run up to Canadian manufacturing PMI.
  • JPY/NZD/GBP/NOK/SEK – Lagging their G10 counterparts, albeit to varying degrees, as the Yen pivots 106.00, Kiwi straddles 0.6600 in advance of NZ jobs data and Pound fades within a 1.3107-1.3047 range having failed to get close enough to stir or arouse stops said to be waiting for a break of 1.3120. Similarly, the Scandinavian Crowns have slipped both slipped from best levels against the Euro, though in tight bands of 10.7675-7200 and 10.3045-2740 respectively and the Nok eyeing softer crude prices.
  • EM – Try in focus due to Turkish inflation data, but not deflated even though CPI slowed more than forecast on the headline and core measures, with the Lira hovering towards the upper end of 6.9170-9795 extremes vs the Usd. The aforementioned weaker Dollar is clearly a factor, while Usd/Try may also be taking on board Turkey’s manufacturing PMI extending its rising trend to 3 months in a row and reaching its best level since early 2011. Over in Asia, the HKMA has been active again to keep the Hkd pegged, selling over 1.16 bn of the local currency.

In commodities, WTI and Brent front month futures remain subdued in early European trade as investors weigh the impact a second COVID-19 wave could have on lockdown impositions and reopening delays alongside rising OPEC supply with the implications as reflected by prelim numbers. Aside from that, traders will be eyeing the weekly Private Inventory figures – with expectations currently positing to a headline draw of 3.5mln barrels, with a draw seen in gasoline and a build in distillates. WTI and Brent futures trade ~40.50 (vs. high 40.99/bbl) and around 43.50/bbl (vs. high 44.11/bbl) respectively. Elsewhere, precious metals are uneventful with spot gold trading on either side of 1975/oz, whilst its silver counterpart remains contained below 24.50/oz. Data compiled by Bloomberg showed that ETFs increased gold holdings for a 27th straight session yesterday – equating some USD 580mln at yesterday’s spot price, whilst UBS expects spot gold prices to rise to around USD 2000/oz in H2 2020. In terms of base metal prices, Dalian iron ore saw another day of gains amid concerns regarding Brazilian miner Vale’s ability to increase production of the raw material, whilst London copper prices continue to ease, in-fitting with the performance in sentiment.

US Event Calendar

  • 10am: Factory Orders, est. 5.0%, prior 8.0%; Factory Orders Ex Trans, prior 2.6%
  • 10am: Durable Goods Orders, est. 7.3%, prior 7.3%; Durables Ex Transportation, est. 3.3%, prior 3.3%
  • 10am: Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, prior 3.3%; Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, prior 3.4%

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Yesterday it was Bronte’s turn to provide the high drama at home as on a dog walk with my wife and three kids she ate a whole discarded chocolate bar in one sitting having come across it on the floor. She is totally food obsessed but never goes for chocolate as there must be some knowledge that it is potentially lethal for dogs. We must be starving her. Anyway a trip to the vets, forcing her to be sick, and a big bill later and all was well. That wasn’t the only big bill yesterday. We are looking to convert a dilapidated building in our garden at some point over the next year and require planning permission. As part of this we need to do a bat survey to check there are none living in it as they are a protected specie. We were confident there weren’t. On the day of the survey yesterday the “bat man” found fresh bat droppings and says we now have to send it off for analysis and then have a team camp out overnight in the garden to “track and trace” the bat and find a way of protecting Mr or Mrs Bat and any offspring. When I saw the potential bill for this I went a bit batty. Think of a suitable number and then times it by about 7 and you’ll be at around the right ballpark. So an expensive animal led day yesterday.

With slightly better than expected PMIs in major countries and technology stocks continuing to lead the way, US equities started August on the front foot. The S&P 500 rose +0.72%, led by a mix of Software (+2.90%), Autos (+2.17%), and Tech Hardware (+2.03%), while defensives like Real Estate (-1.47%) and Utilities (-1.14%) lagged. With the strength in technology stocks it was another record close for the Nasdaq, finishing +1.47% higher. In line with PMIs, equites in Europe outpaced those in the US with the STOXX 600 finishing +2.05% higher, the biggest 1 day rise since mid-June with every sector finishing higher. With the economic optimism from macro data, cyclical sectors like autos (+3.76%) and construction (+3.15%) led the index higher yesterday. Bank underperformed, but were still up (+1.57%), with poor earnings results from SocGen and HSBC who cited trading losses and a weak economic outlook respectively.

On those final July PMI data points, similar to the flash PMI readings roughly two weeks back, final July manufacturing PMI readings showed stronger economic momentum in Europe than in the US. Although the US PMI impressed. In general PMIs mostly beat estimates or the recent flash levels, which is good news for the recovery, but there is one note of caution. A recurring theme from the data was a weaker employment component, showing that there is still fragility on this front. The Euro area saw an upward revision from the flash estimate, up to 51.8 from 51.1, with gains in output overcoming continued job cuts as corporates report they are operating under capacity. It was the first time the measure was in expansion for the Euro area as a whole since January 2019.

Germany also came in above the flash estimate at 51 vs. 50, with new orders driving the improvement from June, however again the rate of job losses was near the largest since 2009. France’s final July PMI was only marginally higher than the flash (52.4 vs 52.0), as both softer demand and employment levels dragged on the index. Italy (51.9 vs. 51.2) and Spain (53.5 vs. 52.3) saw their strongest levels since Q2 2018. The UK was one of the few countries that was slightly lower, with the final manufacturing PMI 0.3 lower than the 53.6 flash print. In the US, the ISM manufacturing index rose to 54.2 from 52.6 last month, (vs. 53.6 estimates), which was the fastest pace since Mar 2019. The US Markit PMI measure was at 50.9, under the 51.3 flash print, but still the best print since January and just slightly in expansionary territory.

Back to markets and core sovereign bonds were slightly higher or unchanged as risk sentiment improved yesterday. German 10yr yields were largely unchanged (+0.1bps) at -0.52%, while US 10yr yields were +2.6bps higher at 0.554%. The dollar rose +0.21%, rising for consecutive sessions for the first time since 29 June.

Asian markets have largely tracked Wall Street this morning with the Nikkei (+1.42%), Hang Seng (+0.83%), Kospi (+1.06%) and ASX (+1.82%) all posting decent gains but with the Shanghai Comp trading flat. Futures on the S&P 500 are marginally down at -0.08%.

On the virus, Norway’s government is banning cruise ships from entering all ports for two weeks after an outbreak on board a cruiseliner led to about 40 new cases, according to Trade Minister Nybov yesterday. Meanwhile, the UK is in talks with Portugal to ease quarantine rules on travelers returning from the country on the Iberian Peninsula. The UK are looking into more closely tailoring rules for specific regions, according the government. This comes while the government has put together plans to lockdown London in case of another surge of cases, according to Prime Minister Johnson’s Spokesman Slack. The plan, he said, sets out “the possibility of a power to restrict people’s movement and potentially close down local transport networks.” Concerns across the continent are rising as daily case growth is again starting to accelerate from low levels in much of Europe, even as it’s gently falling from high levels in the US. Across the other side of the world, state of Victoria in Australia has announced that it will start imposing on the spot fines of as much as AUD 5,000 on anyone who flouts isolation rules while repeat and serious offenders could attract a court imposed penalty of AUD 20,000. The move comes as the state is battling to control the spread of virus.

Back to the US and the main late-June/mid-July hot spots are continuing to cool down with California reporting the fewest new cases in four weeks (4,982), which is well below the average increase of 8,700 over the past 7 days. Arizona also saw new cases hit the lowest levels since the end of June, with just over 1030 versus the 7-day average of over 2400. Regardless of the improving news, as highlighted above the overall numbers are still high with economic restrictions in place to reduce these case numbers. This continues to encourage focus on the fiscal stimulus package that Congress is debating. Republican and Democratic leaders have still been unable to agree on the specifics of the latest stimulus bill ahead of their month long recess from this Friday. There was a little more positivity yesterday but nothing concrete yet.

Here in the UK, Bloomberg has reported overnight that the government will invest c.GBP 1.3bn in building projects and provide GBP 2bn in energy efficiency grants in an effort to create jobs and rally the pandemic-hit UK economy. Relatively small numbers but the direction of travel is clear.

Finally to the day ahead, markets will receive data on the Euro Area June PPI while, manufacturing PMI from Canada will be seen alongside US June factory orders, and final durable goods orders. In terms of earnings, there will be results from Bayer, Diageo, Fidelity, BP, Walt Disney and Activision Blizzard.

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)TUESDAY MORNING/ MONDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 3.72 POINTS OR 0.11%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 488.50 POINTS OR 2.06%   /The Nikkei closed UP 378.28 POINTS OR 1.70%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 1.86%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.9836 /Oil UP TO 40.35 dollars per barrel for WTI and 43.35 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 6.9836 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.9855 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED//CORONAVIRUS/PANDEMIC  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 C CHINA

CHINA VS USA
The USA looks like they are doing to China what China did to them: steal their technology.
(zerohedge)

Beijing Won’t Allow Trump To “Steal” TikTok In “Smash & Grab” Deal

During a press briefing at the White House on Monday, President Trump publicly affirmed that he would be fine with Microsoft or some other major American company buying TikTok from ByteDance, despite opposition from White House advisor Pete Navarro, who took to CNN to express his unhappiness with the deal Monday morning.

What came next surprised many of the journalists in attendance. After insisting that a deal be completed by the mid-September deadline imposed by CFIUS, Trump boasted that the US Treasury would get a “very large percentage” of the deal (the final number, Trump insisted, would be based on the size of the deal – but it would definitely be substantial. Trump then launched into an analogy, comparing the US government to a landlord and TikTok to a tenant.

“We make it possible to have this great success…TikTok is a tremendous success, but it happened in this country.”

To be sure, Trump and the executive branch have unilateral power to cripple TikTok by adding it (and probably its owner ByteDance) to the US “entity’s list” – the Commerce Department ‘black list’ to which Huawei, and dozens of other Chinese companies, have been added.

Trump’s comments, apparently, created an opening for China’s propagandists, who in an editorial that has grabbed the attention of the Western press, accused the Trump Administration of blatantly trying to “steal” Chinese technology, an act it called a “smash and grab” – likening the US to a desperate drug addict breaking into parked cars to try to find something, anything, to steal and trade for cash.

Read the full editorial below, courtesy of the People’s Daily:

After vowing to ban the popular short-video sharing app TikTok in the United States on Friday, the US president is reportedly weighing the advantages of allowing Microsoft to purchase its US operations.

Such shilly-shallying is a tactic the US administration employed during the trade deal negotiations with China.

The tactic involves the president promising punishment for some perceived wrongdoing, followed by indications from other administration officials that the punishment might not be forthcoming. This is followed soon after by some close to the president saying that he intends to make good on his threat, sparking a sharp rise in tensions again. All with the aim of getting what the US administration wants.

So it was par for the course that after the ban on TikTok was proposed and then left hanging, that US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo told the media on Sunday morning that the president “will take action in the coming days with respect to a broad array of national security risks that are presented by software connected to the Chinese Communist Party”.

Although it is yet to be known how that will work, the message will certainly heighten the concerns of Chinese companies.

As TikTok’s experience shows, no matter how unfounded the claims against them are, as long as they remain Chinese companies, they will be presented as being a “Red threat” by the administration.

That being said, selling its US operations to Microsoft might be preferable for ByteDance, TikTok’s parent company in China, as it is working “for the best outcome”. And that being the case, the top US diplomat’s comments on Sunday were tantamount to inviting potential.

US purchasers to participate in an officially sanctioned “steal” of Chinese technology.

Washington is well aware that Beijing will be cautious about retaliating like-for-like as it values foreign investment in China, and the sizable US investment in China is of more importance to the Chinese economy than the much smaller and shrinking Chinese investment is to the US economy.

Also, there is the additional bonus that coercing Chinese companies to divest their US business to US enterprises will not incur job losses.

The US administration’s bullying of Chinese tech companies stems from data being the new source of wealth and its zero-sum vision of “American first”. With competitiveness now dependent on the ability to collect and use data, it offers an either-or choice of submission or mortal combat in the tech realm. There are no carrots to promote cooperation only sticks.

But China will by no means accept the “theft” of a Chinese technology company, and it has plenty of ways to respond if the administration carries out its planned smash and grab.

The People’s Daily’s demand is ironic, since President Trump’s ascendance to the presidency was due in part to his aggressive stance toward China, which he accused of stealing jobs, technology and economic might from the US.

China’s cyberespionage activities, run through the Ministry of State Security, have infiltrated some of the biggest companies in the west.

Sometimes, technology theft is orchestrated by Chinese companies, presumably on behalf of the MSS, like the now-infamous theft by Huawei engineers of “Tappy”, a piece of technology developed by a team of engineers at T-Mobile, which figured heavily into a lawsuit filed early last year.

We could go on. But as for what this means for TikTok, the competing pressures from Beijing and Washington might make any deal impossible, particularly within the timeline demanded by the US.

END

 

CHINA VS USA/MICHAEL EVERY

Michael Every…

King Dollar? Rabobank Warns “Staying On Thrones Means A Battle At Some Point”

Authored by Michael Every via Rabobank,

“The King is dead. Long live the King!”

TikTok now has 44 days (and counting) to arrange a sale to Microsoft or be banned, which is legally known as “forced divestment”, I believe, and will naturally never be considered by China as a form of retaliation against US firms based there. At least that’s what the US firms still based there are no doubt telling themselves as they continue to say “This is fine” over and over despite all manner of worrying developments in the Chinese economy and US-China relations. Muddying the waters, the White House now wants a slice of the action for rewarding Microsoft with such a juicy deal – because when one thinks of cool kids sharing 15-second ADHD-driven mini-videos that make adults groan, one does not traditionally think of traditional firms like Microsoft. Moreover, China hawk Navarro is attacking Microsoft for being in China at all, albeit critics point out often in the form of pirated software. He’s suggesting Microsoft should divest their China business. Which is at least symmetrical. It’s also deep decoupling.

In short, you thought China was the new tech king? Perhaps it is, yet the old US king –who comes across to some like the one in the 1977 film ‘Jabberwocky’ (“King Bruno the Questionable”)– has just shown it can still take off more than a few heads too with just a wave of a hand.

Meanwhile, with US 10-year yields up only a few basis points from their year-to-date closing low, it’s worth wondering if one of the ‘kings’ of recent trades, long bond duration, is really over or not. The US tech titans who testified to Congress last week tried to portray the US as vibrant. Well, it is for them. Facebook CEO Zuckerberg in particular stressed that there is a rapid turnover among the largest US firms, like his, which proves that innovation and dynamism and competition are still there. Well, imagine a medieval peasant. He doesn’t have the best of times of it under his king. However, once every ten years or so, a new knight rides in, kills the king and takes the throne. As the peasant shovels old muck for the new king, I am sure the first thing he says to himself is “What a vibrant, dynamic, meritocratic economy we have!” It’s a structural economic problem – and we are being offered neither a structural solution nor an adequate cyclical response. There is still no white smoke on stimulus from Congress, for example.

Less muck, more brass. Do we have a dynamic recovery from the virus we can point to? No. Yes, PMIs are over 50. No, that does not mean anything at the moment, as this measures month-to-month changes in sentiment, which is obviously up, but which is still massively down year-on-year on almost any measure. Yes, you can give people 50% of the price of a burger to eat one, and they will go and do so, as the UK government now shows is the case; but, no, ask them to pay full-price to risk illness to do so and the restaurants and cafes will likely be too empty again. That’s a pretty deflationary backdrop if you ask me. At least one king is not dead.

And neither is another – the USD. King Dollar, who has seen so much talk of dethroning of late, has had a good few days, even if it is leaning on its sword breathing heavily right now. EUR/USD is currently at 1.1770 when it was over 1.19 last week; and against a wobbly EM benchmark like ZAR it is at 17.19 when it was at 16.70 last Friday. The USD is almost certainly oversold and, as our own Piotr Matys points out, at a critical technical support level. We shall see if he can keep his throne or not.

However, this is not just about lines on charts. It’s about lines on maps. Staying on thrones usually involves battle of some kind at some point.

In short, there is more of this to come. Much more. So tick-tock more like. Which suggests long USD and long duration is still a king of trades.

Australia’s in-no-way regal RBA have underlined this with news that their bond buying will begin again tomorrow to ensure that the Aussie 3-year yield stays where they want it at 0.25%. A pity they can’t keep the virus where they (don’t) want it; or jobs where they want them, or house prices, or retail sales (-3.4% q/q in Q2 excluding inflation); or US-China relations; although they will be happy that exports were still up 3% y/y in June, while imports were up 1%.

Oh, and Spain’s former king Juan Carlos has just had to flee the country to avoid becoming embroiled in a corruption scandal.

END
CHINA 
China steps up massive combat readiness aerial drills over the South China seas
(zerohedge)

China Steps Up Massive ‘Combat Readiness’ Aerial Drills Over South China Sea

China has conducted massive aerial drills over the South China Sea at a moment of all-time high tensions with the United States.

Described as air combat readiness exercises, regional media details that three of China’s five main military regions are active as part of the drills. It comes on the heels of even larger exercises off the Leizhou Peninsula in southern China which wrapped up days ago.

“Our aim is not to push the limit or break a record. All our exercises are aimed at [preparing for] actual combat,” a state media video said of the drills, which lasted over ten hours.

 

Illustrative file image, via Chinese Ministry of National Defense

The aircraft made use of some of its man-made islands which have been at center of controversy with regional allies of the US, given the artificial land masses have been used to expand China’s maritime claims over the whole area.

South China Sea detailed of the new drills that “the Southern Theatre Command sent various aircraft, including an Su-30 fighter and an aerial refuelling tanker, to Subi Reef, a South China Sea atoll that China expanded into an artificial island.”

During the exercise, one foreign aircraft was said to be chased away from the area, but it’s unclear whether it was military or what nation it belonged to.

Meanwhile, the Pentagon has plans for its own future drills in the contested South China Sea; however, some allies like the Philippines have said of late that they don’t plan to participate for fear of sparking inadvertent military conflict.

end

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

SPAIN

The coronavirus is also having a devastating effect on the Spanish economy

(zerohedge)

Spanish Stocks Break Support As Virus Concerns Reemerge

Spain’s IBEX 35 Index futures have slumped 11% in 9 trading sessions “as fears of new lockdowns coupled with weaker than expected macro data soured investors’ sentiment,” said Reuters‘ Stefano Rebaudo.

“There is a combination of factors,” said James McKenzie, head of research of Fidentiis in Madrid.

“Worries about possible new lockdowns as coronavirus cases keep rising, recent bad numbers for Q2 GDP and probably even worse data ahead as the UK quarantine for travelers to Spain will put under further pressure the tourism industry,” McKenzie said.

Spain reported 1,525 new COVID-19 cases on Friday, making it the most significant increase in cases since June, which was around the time national lockdown was lifted. Countries in Europe are now advising citizens against travel to Spain.

Virus cases have surged across Europe

Spain’s GDP, like Germany and France, reported last week some of the biggest crashes ever for the second quarter. The eurozone economy contracted by 12.1% in 2Q YoY.

Depressing data in the eurozone, more importantly, Spain, highlights the collapse in the travel and tourism industry, fading any hopes a quick rebound will be seen.

The virus is re-emerging across the world, maybe the souring of investors’ mood in Spanish stocks is a precursor to a much broader sell-off.

END

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

TURKEY

Big trouble in Turkey this morning.  Erdogan has resorted to a peg of 6.85 to the dollar instead of using a free float.  His escapades into the Mediterranean has not gone over well with European allies. Now they are running out of reserves as foreign investors flee.  They have very little reserves.  In the hope to crush shorts they raised the overnight rate to 1.024% but that did not relieve the loss on the lira

(zerohedge)

In Desperation Panic, Turkey Hikes Lira Overnight Rate To 1,024% To Crush Shorts As Currency Implodes

One week ago, the Turkish Lira which had flatlined for the better part of a month on what strategists said were an unprecedented array of novel capital controls and bank selling of dollars, suffered a sharp hiccup as local authorities briefly lost control of the currency, with USD//TRY spiking briefly from its “pegged” level of 6.85 to as high as 7.00 before instantly reversing.

And while a precarious balance had returned in the subsequent few days, the lira resumed its gradual drift lower in what many saw an ominous deja vu of what happened in the summer of 2018 when the lira plunged only to see the central bank hike funding costs in an attempt to crush shorts.

Sure enough, with Turkey ostensibly running out of reserves to sell and keep the TRY quasi pegged, overnight Turkey resorted to the currency bazooka when it unexpectedly ramped up the interest rate on Turkish lira overnight swap transactions in the London market, which initially soared to 280% on Tuesday from 6.8% on July 29, according to Refinitiv data, before exploding as high as 1024bps, the highest on record.

Turkish banks have previously cut funding to the London swap market, effectively making it impossible to short the lira, in order to curb falls in the currency. Today’s desperation move follows heavy dollar sales by state banks last week, which drained lira liquidity as the trades settle, Bloomberg said citing two traders.

Needless to say, for Turkey to resort to such draconian “Plan Z” measures where it effectively nationalizes the FX market, it means that its economy is on the verge of collapse, a view reaffirmed overnight by the FT which writes that Turkey’s tourism sector – a key source of economic growth – continues to reel due to covid.

At this time of year, Murat Tugay, who runs the 240-room Hotel Aqua in the Mediterranean resort of Marmaris, should be dealing with a packed guestbook and all the challenges of peak season. Instead, the hotel is closed and Mr Tugay is banking on a late summer recovery. “We still have August. We still have September,” he says.

This implosion in Turkey’s tourism sector comes at a time when President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been desperately seeking to assure the population (and much needed foreign investors) that all is well, hailing a sharp fall in interest rates and praised measures taken to block “malicious” attacks on the Turkish lira. Such steps, he said, were “strengthening the immune system of our economy against global turbulence.”

That could not be further from how most economists see the Turkish picture. The collapse in tourism as a result of the coronavirus pandemic has left a gaping hole in the country’s finances. Foreign investors have fled, pulling out a large volume of funds from the country’s local-currency bonds and stocks over the past 12 months.

And now, it appears that Turkey is running out of reserves to sell and “control” the lira, and instead it is resorting to the bazooka approach, one which it can use to nuke the occasional short here and there, but which in the longer run will cripple the Turkish economy, and merely accelerate its downfall.

And sure enough, after the lira briefly strengthened in the spot market as a result of record surge in overnight rates, it then promptly swung to a loss again suggesting that it is no longer shorts that are in the driver’s seat, that Turkey’s panicked attempt to punish them will have little impact on the continued decline in the currency, and that a full blown currency crisis in Turkey may be about to hit.

END
LEBANON
Looks like Israel hit their munitions factory
(zerohedge)

Terrifying Mystery Blast Shockwave Filmed Over Beirut​​​​​​​

A powerful blast has just rocked the Lebanese capital of Beirut. The cause of the massive explosion is as yet unknown.

But multiple social media videos from various angles shows it happened during daylight hours Tuesday, in the late afternoon or early evening local time.

Images show that a massive shockwave flashed over the city, followed by an immense fireball that appeared several stories high.

It happened near Beirut’s port and there are unverified reports of a secondary explosion as well.

Lebanese media is currently speculating that a large fireworks depot exploded, given it’s in the vicinity of an area where firecrackers are known to be stored.

It’s as yet unknown how many casualties have resulted as no doubt a massive emergency response is underway.

Indeed close-up images just before the larger blast shows a large complex on fire, with either ammunition or fireworks going off, followed by the intense shockwave.

The AP describes the aftermath:

The explosion appeared to be centered around Beirut’s port and caused wide scale destruction and shattered windows miles away.

An Associated Press photographer near Beirut’s port witnessed people wounded on the ground and widespread destruction in central Beirut.

Some local TV stations reported the blast was at Beirut’s port inside an area where firecrackers were stored.

It’s reported caused widespread damage in all surrounding neighborhoods.

Lately the southern Lebanese border has been scene of brief fighting between the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) and Hezbollah.

Tel Aviv has recently warned Lebanon that it will be held responsible for any Hezbollah aggression.

developing…

END

Israel/Raytheon//USA/Iron dome

Israel and Raytheon has entered a joint venture with Israel’s Rafael to make next Iron Dome defense  system in the USA. The USA will be free to supply all allies with it

(Jason Ditz/Antiwar.com)

Raytheon Announces Deal To Make Israel’s Iron Dome Defense System In US

Authored by Jason Ditz via AntiWar.com,

Major US armsmaker Raytheon Technologies has announced a joint venture with Israel’s Rafael to make Israel’s Iron Dome missile defense system inside the United States, with an eye toward sending it to “allies across the globe.”

Raytheon emphasized how successful Israel says Iron Dome is, citing a 90% success rate. That’s used to intercept the makeshift Palestinian rockets, and it is broadly untested with respect to proper missiles or other weapons.

“This will be the first Iron Dome all-up-round facility outside of Israel, and it will help the U.S. Department of Defense and allies across the globe obtain the system for defense of their service members and critical infrastructure,” vice president of Raytheon Missiles & Defense’s land warfare and air defense Sam Deneke said.

 

Iron Dome system file image, via DefPost

According to Defense News:

The U.S. Army has chosen Iron Dome as an interim capability to counter cruise missiles while it continues to develop a future Indirect Fires Protection Capability, or IFPC, to counter those threats as well as enemy drones, rockets, artillery and mortars. Congress mandated the service buy two batteries to cover urgent cruise missile defense gaps, and another set of two if the Army didn’t come up with a way forward for its enduring IFPC.

MIT has done studies on Iron Dome as an interceptor missile, concluding that the success rate is a “deception” and that it is a system which “hardly works,” and almost certainly would have a success rate less than 10 percent.

Collection of archived clips of Iron Dome in action over Israel:

Historically this was important because US aid is used to pay for the Israeli system. If the system doesn’t work, however, it’s likely something other potential customers may want to be aware of.

end

6.Global Issues

CORONAVIRUS UPDATE/TUESDAY//THE GLOBE

Global COVID-19 Spread Slowest In 3 Weeks As Deaths Near 700,000: Live Updates

Summary:

  • Global COVID outbreak slowest spread in 3 weeks
  • Death toll nears 700,000
  • US deaths finally start to edge lower
  • Hong Kong extends lockdown measures, builds temporary hospitals
  • Tokyo reports 300+ new cases
  • India reports more than 50,000 new cases
  • China reports 36 new cases
  • Philippines suffers another record jump in new cases

* * *

*CORRECTION*: Earlier, we reported that the global number of COVID deaths was nearing 7 million. The number of COVID-19 deaths is, in fact, nearing 700,000.

We apologize for the error.

* * *

Globally, the number of new cases reported on Monday (remember, these cases are reported typically with a 24-hour delay) tumbled to the slowest rate of expansion in nearly three weeks, while the global death toll neared 700,000.

In the US, the death toll surpassed 155,000 yesterday. That comes five days after the US first broke above 150,000 deaths. Though experts like Dr. Fauci and others have warned about the potential for deaths in the US to accelerate, the number of daily deaths has remained anchored at around 1,000.

Over the past two weeks, the worst-hit countries, including the US and Brazil, have seen new cases turn mercifully lower after a streak of record-shattering single-day infection numbers.

Even the number of daily deaths in the US have moved off their highest levels since April and May, despite experts warnings about a further spike.

Most of the big news out so far on Tuesday comes out of Asia.

One day after placing Manila and its surrounding area on a strict two-week lockdown, the Philippines reported a record 6,352 new coronavirus infections, a new single-day record, bringing the total to 112,593. The 11 new fatalities reported raised the death toll to 2,115.

Yesterday, the WHO’s Dr. Tedros revealed during a press briefing (where he also noted that there may be “no silver bullet” vaccine, at least not right away) that the team of independent scientists from the WHO had finished the first part of their fact-finding mission to Wuhan to investigate the origins of the outbreak. According to a Reuters report published Tuesday morning, the team had “extensive discussions” with scientists in Wuhan and “received updates on epidemiological studies, biologic and genetic analysis and animal health research.”

The mission is the first part of a broader international probe that was demanded by the Trump Administration, Australia, EU and others.

In Japan, Tokyo Gov. Yuriko Koike announced another 309 new infections, up from 258 on Monday. The SCMP reports that the Hong Kong government is building at least 2 new makeshift hospitals that will add 2,400 new beds to the territory’s COVID-19 capacity. The government announced on Monday that it would extend its social distancing restrictions for another week. Hong Kong’s “third wave” of the virus has also been its deadliest yet. Fortunately, the city reported just 80 cases on Tuesday, on par with yesterday’s number. Yesterday, the city’s health authorities reported fewer than 100 new cases for the first time in nearly 2 weeks. Chief Executive Carrie Lam has sought help from the mainland to increase testing and hospital capacity.

India reported more than 50,000 cases for the sixth straight day, bringing total infections to over 1.85 million.

The world’s second-most-populous country also reported another 803 deaths, bringing its total to 38,938.

China reports 36 new cases, down from 43 the previous day. Of those, 28 were in the northwestern region of Xinjiang and two in Liaoning Province in the northeast. Another six were from Chinese arriving from overseas.

After imposing a curfew earlier this week and shuttering a large swath of its economy in another lockdown, new legal measures go into effect on Tuesday whereby anyone caught outside in breach of Victoria’s isolation orders will face fines from AUS$1,652 ($1,200) to AUS$5,000 ($3,559).

Officials warned that noncompliance with quarantine and social distancing rules is widespread. Random checks by police on 3,000 infected people had found more than 800 were not home isolating, as they were supposed to be.

However, the Australian press, for whatever reason, focused on Chief Commissioner Shane Patton’s complaints about a small number of self-declared “sovereign citizens” who have hectored – and in at least one case, attacked – police officers trying to enforce the new orders.

Victoria Police had seen an “emergence” of “concerning groups of people who classify themselves as ‘sovereign citizens'”, the BBC reported Tuesday.

Under the current “stage four” lockdown, Melbournians can leave home only to shop, exercise and provide essential medical care, or do frontline work. Residents must shop and exercise within 5 kilometers (3 miles) of their home, and for no longer than 1 hour at a time.

This, despite a growing body of evidence that the lockdown in Victoria is having little impact on suppressing the growth of cases.

end

7. OIL ISSUES

BP

BP slashes its dividend for the first time in 10 years on dismal global energy demand

(zerohedge)

BP Slashes Dividend For First Time In Decade On Dismal Energy Demand Outlook

BP halved its dividend on Tuesday after reporting a record $6.7 billion quarterly loss due to the collapse in global demand for energy products.

The dividend cut by BP comes at no surprise. Major oil companies were crushed in the second quarter as coronavirus lockdowns led to a sharp decline in demand for oil and gas products. Royal Dutch Shell is a major oil and gas company that recently announced a cut to its dividend.

BP said the outlook for energy demand and prices remains “challenging and uncertain,” warning that the virus-induced global recession could weigh on demand for a “sustained period.” As to how long, well, no specific guidance was given. We noted last month, KPMG estimates 14 million fewer vehicles on US highways due to remote working trends and permanent job loss.

Tuesday’s halving of the dividend (first cut in a decade) to 5.25 cents per share was much larger than what analysts expected, due primarily to the company needing to get its massive debt load under control while adapting to a new environment, one which demand languishes as the global economic recovery is sluggish.

 

h/t Reuters 

The company announced in June it would lay off nearly 10,000 workers globally by the end of the year.

Refinitiv data shows BP’s 2Q loss was one for the record books, posting a $6.7 billion loss for the quarter. The net loss was mostly in line with average analysts’ expectations. The loss is compared with profits of $2.8 billion a year earlier and $791 million in 1Q20.

 

h/t Reuters 

BP’s new Chief Executive Bernard Looney called the second quarter “challenging:”

“These headline results have been driven by another very challenging quarter, but also by the deliberate steps we have taken as we continue to reimagine energy and reinvent bp. In particular, our reset of long-term price assumptions and the related impairment and exploration write-off charges had a major impact. Beneath these, however, our performance remained resilient, with good cash flow and – most importantly – safe and reliable operations.”

Despite BP’s reduction in its dividend, shares trading in London and New York were higher on Tuesday morning as it announced a new strategy to pivot away from carbon-intensive fossil fuels to a greener initiative.

BP PLC 

MSCI World Index versus Reuters Global Energy Index 

Maybe the divergence above suggests global stocks are running on fumes.

end

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

ARGENTINA

perennial defaulter Argentina, does it again

(zerohedge)

Argentina Strikes Deal With Creditors Over $65BN Debt After 3rd Default In 20 Years

In a break with tradition that probably came as a welcome relief to the country’s creditors, who may have been gearing up for a 16-plus-year odyssey in what would have been the economically troubled South American nation’s third sovereign default in 20 years, Argentina has struck a deal with its creditors to restructure a $65 billion debt.

And in the spirit of the global COVID-19 outbreak, during which the IMF has urged developed nations to help ease the financial burden faced by poorer nations as it doles out billions of dollars in loans around the world, Argentina and its perennially troubled economy – which has been rattled over the years by spats with creditors following the severe economic mismanagement of reckless left-wing populists – will evade the brunt of repercussions for debt that was accrued long before COVID-19 emerged.

Committees representing Argentina’s creditors, based mostly in the US and Europe, have agreed to exchanged their defaulted bonds for new bonds under a settlement worth roughly 55 cents on the dollar. While most institutions and investors who have agreed to lend money to Argentina have lost out, a cadre of distressed investors who bought the Argentinian bonds for pennies on the dollar stand to make a handsome profit from the new bonds.

Per WSJ, major investors in Argentine bonds include Fidelity Management & Research Co., Monarch Alternative Capital LP, VR Capital Group, Greylock Capital Management and Pharo Management LLC.

Ecuador and Lebanon have already turned to the IMF for bailouts this year, and Argentina’s economy minister had threatened to start negotiations with the IMF if creditors didn’t come to a deal.

According to media reports, a willingness by the Argentine economy minister to accelerate series of payments due next year helped lead to the breakthrough with creditors. The payments were moved to January and July, from March and September. And here’s a breakdown of the new bonds and their amortization schedules.

  • New USD, EUR bonds due 2030 to start amortizing in July 2024, mature in July 2030
  • New USD, EUR bonds due 2038 will be offered in exchange for discount bonds, start amortizing in July 2027 through January 2038
  • Bond included in the offer for unpaid interests will begin amortization in 2025 and mature in 2029

Markets rejoiced in the decision as Argentina’s “Century Bond”, the poster-child for the global thirst for yield, rallied to its highest price in five months.

During negotiations, most bondholders settled for roughly 30 cents on the dollar, but a minority battled for full repayment, eventually winning a US court ruling that eventually led to another default in 2014 (the second in this series of three), before a settlement in 2016 that delivered enormous gains to the holdouts, including Paul Singer’s Elliott Management.

Having witnessed the ruthlessness and determination that Singer brought to bear over more than a decade of negotiations with Argentina just to get his money (or rather, the money lent by the original lenders) back, one would think investors approached the country with a heightened degree of scrutiny once it made its triumphant return to international capital markets.

Nope. Its first global issuance in 20 years was 3x oversubscribed.

end

INDIA

The pandemic is certainly have a terrible effect on Indian stocks.  Covid 19 is ripping through this country

(zerohedge)

Indian Stocks Break Critical Support As Pandemic Accelerates 

Indian shares have reversed in the last four sessions, breaking critical support, following financials, energy, healthcare, and telecommunication services pressuring the NIFTY 50 lower on Monday.

Ahead of the interest rate decision this week, investors have been souring over the prospects of rising coronavirus cases.

NIFTY 50 has fallen 4% since late last week, and this comes after a 50% increase in India’s main equity index since mid-March after it plunged 38% on the eruption of the virus pandemic.

India’s interior minister said hospitalization with COVID-19 is surging as cases soared Monday above 50,000 for the fifth consecutive day. 

India’s Ministry of Health and Family Welfare reported 52,972 new confirmed infections on Monday, pushing up the total to 1.8 million, just behind the US and Brazil.

With 771 new deaths, the virus pandemic has killed 38,135 people in the country, including that of a minister on Sunday.

Zee Business financial analyst Anil Singhvi warned NIFTY 50 downside could be seen if the ₹11,000-level support is violated. The index closed ₹10,891, indicating further downside is ahead.

Singhvi said investors should sell stocks if NIFTY 50 trends below ₹11,000. After the correction, he believes stocks could zoom higher.

“11000 most important level … Anil Singhvi said – do not be afraid of a few digit correction after the boom … If the market trades below 11000-10950, neutralize the position of the bull, said – for a big boom beyond 11300 Stay ready,” tweeted Zee Business (translated into English). 

Perhaps waning Indian stocks is a warning sign for the MSCI World Index.

Earlier on Monday, Spanish stocks broke critical support after new rounds of lockdowns feared.

end

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings TUESDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1731 DOWN .0029 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS //CORONAVIRUS/PANDEMIC/AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /ALL RED

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 106.18 UP 0.155 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2987   DOWN   0.0090  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/

 

USA/CAN 1.3414 UP .0019 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  TUESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL BY 29 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1731 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 3.72 POINTS OR 0.11% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 488.50 POINTS OR 2.06%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 1,86%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 488.50 POINTS OR 2.06%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 3.72 POINTS OR 0.11%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP 1.86% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 378.28  POINTS OR 1.70%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1971.80

silver:$24.30-

Early TUESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 0.531% !!! DOWN 3 IN POINTS from MONDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 1.196 DOWN 4  IN BASIS POINTS from MONDAY night.

USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 93.72 UP 38 CENT(S) from  MONDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers TUESDAY MORNING

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And now your closing  TUESDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.30% DOWN 4 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.015%  DOWN 1   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.28%//DOWN 6 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:0.96 DOWN 5 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 64 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.55% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.51% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR TUESDAY

Closing currency crosses for TUESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1769  UP     .0009 or 9 basis points

USA/Japan: 105.86 DOWN .173 OR YEN UP 17  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3060 DOWN .0018 POUND DOWN 18  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar UP 45 basis points to 1.3350

 

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The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 6.9734    ON SHORE  (UP)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.9797  (YUAN UP)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  6.9433 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +.015%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 4 IN basis points from MONDAY at 0.522 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 1.199 DOWN 4 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 93.46 UP 11  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for TUESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 5.12  0.08%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 57.97 POINTS OR .46%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 12.80 POINTS 0.26%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 34.90 POINTS or 0.50%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 201.75 POINTS OR 1.04%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 41.44 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 44.45 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE FALLS:    73.53  THE CROSS HIGHER BY 0.38 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE LOWER BY 38 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.55 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  41.47//

 

 

BRENT :  44.28

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 0.50  down 5 basis points…

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 1.185  down 6 basis points

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.17960 ( UP 36   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:105.73 DOWN .301 (YEN UP 30 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 93.29 DOWN 6 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.3068 DOWN 9  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 6.905

 

 

the Russian rouble 73.53   DOWN 0.39 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( DOWN 39 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3330 UP 63 BASIS pts

 

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.55%

 

The Dow closed UP 164.07 POINTS OR 0.62%

 

NASDAQ closed UP 38.37 POINTS OR 0.35%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  23.76 CLOSED DOWN .52

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 0.249%//libor dropping like a stone

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

Bonds & Bullion Bid To New Records As Stocks See-Saw On Stimulus Scares

Spot Gold prices settled above $2,000 for the first time in history today…

Source: Bloomberg

After a series of confusing headlines about virus relief talks sparked anxiety (in some) stocks, and sparked a bid in bonds and bullion and selling of the dollar.

  • 1142ET Pelosi: “doesn’t think there will be a deal this week.”
  • 1415ET *SEN. PERDUE SAYS SENATE STIMULUS TALKS MAY TAKE ANOTHER 2 WEEKS
  • 1425ET *MCCONNEL: WILL NOT FIND TOTAL GOP CONSENSUS ON VIRUS RELIEF
  • 1450ET *SCHUMER SAYS NOT GOING TO STRIKE A DEAL JUST FOR THE SAKE OF IT
  • 1455ET *SCHUMER SAYS HE IS HOPEFUL, TALKS MOVING FORWARD BIT BY BIT

Algos were crazy on words like “hope” and “nope” pinging markets around like a f**king cannabis/blockchain penny-stock…

Nasdaq underperformed most of the day (but the machines managed to get it green late on) as Small Caps were just panic-bid at every excuse.

And in case you wondered why – which you really shouldn’t by now – it was another major short-squeeze day…

Source: Bloomberg

FANG Stocks have been unable to extend after the huge gap higher on last Thursday night’s earnings…

 

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields tumbled led by the long-end (30Y -5bps, 2Y -0.5bps)…

 

Source: Bloomberg

With 10Y Yields back to a 50bps handle – a record closing low…

Source: Bloomberg

In fact, record low closing yields for the entire curve aside from 30Y…

 

Source: Bloomberg

But stocks still don’t care…

 

Source: Bloomberg

The Dollar mirrored Monday almost perfectly with a buying panic during the European day and selling in the US session

Source: Bloomberg

Ripple and Ethereum are up on the week with Bitcoin and Litecoin just in the red from Friday…

 

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin continues to hold half its flash-crash loss…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold futures surged and closed above $2,000

 

Gold is notably overbought but the last few times it has been this overbought there has been consolidation and new high…

 

Source: Bloomberg

Silver futures hit $26…

 

Spot Silver is back at its highest since April 2013…

 

Source: Bloomberg

 

Silver’s outperformance sent the Gold/Silver ratio back to its lowest close since June 2018…

 

Source: Bloomberg

Oil prices chopped around as algos followed the same stock algos on headlines and ended higher ahead of tonight’s API inventory data (also helped by the dollar’s demise during the US session)…

 

Finally, as nominal gold reaches a record high…

Source: Bloomberg

…on an inflation-adjusted basis, it has room to run…

Source: Bloomberg

And if the world’s central banks keep doing what they’re doing (and does anyone really believe there will ever be a normalization now), then negative-yielding global debt will force allocations increasingly to bullion and bitcoin…

Source: Bloomberg

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/THIS MORNING/USA

Treasury yields are tumbling and the stock market is not paying attention

(zerohedge)

Treasury Yields Are Tumbling Back To Record Lows

Yesterday’s brief interruption in the demise of yield (driven by rate-locks due to the massive Alphabet issuance), has ended with Treasury yields erasing the entire move and then some.

Source: Bloomberg

Aside from the flash-crash spike lows on March 9th, this is the lowest 10Y yields have been ever…

Source: Bloomberg

And stocks refuse to pay attention…

Source: Bloomberg

Because “Vaccine” or “V-shaped recovery” or “Fed put” or “Washington put” or…

Source: Bloomberg

Trade accordingly.

end

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

Gold Soars To Record Highs, Stocks Erase Gains After Pelosi Warns ‘No Deal This Week’

While The Dow is holding gains thanks to the insane dominance of AAPL; Nasdaq, Russell 2000, and the S&P are all tumbling into the red on the day after House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said she “doesn’t think there will be a deal this week.”

 

Treasury yields are tumbling to fresh record closing lows…

 

And Gold is soaring to new record highs…

THEN

Gold Extends Gains, Stocks Slump After Perdue’s Stimulus Talks Comments

Shortly after House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said she did not expect a stimulus deal this week, Republican Senator Sonny Perdue warned that “Senate stimulus talks may take another two weeks”…

And stocks did not like that…

 

as investors reached for gold as a safe-haven…

Mitch McConnell also did not help by saying that he did not expect to reach a total GOP consensus on virus relief.

Will it really take a market crash to get these guys to agree on something? And this as the Dems widen the goalposts further.

 

ii)Market data/USA

No V shaped recovery here on USA factory orders: the rebound slowed dramatically in June

(zerohedge)

“No V” – US Factory Orders Rebound Slows In June

US factory orders rebounded in May as the economy re-opened, but the bounce was anything but “v-shaped” after March and April’s collapse (-11% and -13.5% respectively). Analysts expected the pace of that lacklustre rebound to slow even more in June and it did (rising 6.2% MoM from a revised lower 7.7% rise in May) but it did beat expectations of a 5.0% MoM.

On a year-over-year basis, factory orders remain down over 10%

 

Source: Bloomberg

Factory orders ex-transports rose 4.4% MoM (accelerating from the +2.6% MoM in May)

 

Source: Bloomberg

And finally, one has to wonder what exactly the survey respondents in the ISM survey are seeing that sent manufacturing new orders to multi-year highs as the ‘hard’ data is so far off a “V’?

 

Source: Bloomberg

 

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

In the next three months the uSA treasury is set to spend trillions. .probably in excess of 3 trillion usa dollars

(zerohedge)

 

US Treasury Set To Spend Trillions In The Next Few Months

Three months ago, in its then latest estimate of Marketable Borrowings published on May 4, the US Treasury shocked markets when it unveiled that in the April-June quarter it would borrow a humongous $2.999 trillion, exponentially higher than what it had expected to borrow during the quarter in its previous estimate in February when it forecast a $56 billion decline in debt. And while the projected debt number stunned the market, it barely registered on the price or yield of US Treasurys for the simple reason that just weeks earlier the Fed announced it would monetize all gross debt issuance for the US when it unveiled Unlimited QE, something it has been doing since.

This massive surge in debt issuance would also result in a far higher Treasury cash balance which would be used to pre-fund various fiscal stimulus programs, and as the chart below shows, that’s precisely what happened with the Treasury cash balance exploding from $400BN at the end of March to an record high just above $1.7 trillion currently, an amount that is just waiting to be spent as soon as Congress gives the green light.

In retrospect the cash surge was too much: in fact, more than double what the Treasury had expected on May 4. While the Treasury had forecast a $3 trillion increase in marketable borrowing for the quarter ending June 30, it also expected the cash balance to grow to $800 billion on that same date (shown highlighted in yellow on the table below).

And yet the final number ended up being over $922 billion higher, meaning that the Treasury had substantially overshot its funding need and had a cash buffer of nearly $1 trillion more than it had anticipated. 

So with all this extra cash in hand, did the Treasury reduce its debt need for the current quarter? As shown above, three months ago the Treasury expected that it would need to borrow $677BN in the final fiscal quarter of the year ending Sept 30, which while a massive number, was still well below the $2.753 trillion it ended up borrowing (just shy of the $2.999 trillion initial forecast, a number which was not hit due to “lower-than-projected expenditures and higher receipts largely offset by the increase in the cash balance.”)?

The answer, it will shock exactly nobody, was a resounding no because as it disclosed in its latest estimate of Marketable Borrowing needs, the Treasury once again surprised markets by announcing it would borrow a whopping $947BN this quarter, $270BN more than it had forecast a quarter ago, even though the Treasury started this quarter with a cash balance that is $922 billion higher than it had expected one quarter ago!

 

Source: US Treasury

Why this unexpected increase in debt even though the Treasury was starting off with nearly $1 trillion more in cash than originally budgeted? This is how it explains it.

During the July – September 2020 quarter, Treasury expects to borrow $947 billion in privately-held net marketable debt, assuming an end-of-September cash balance of $800 billion.  The borrowing estimate is $270 billion higher than announced in May 2020.  The increase in privately-held net marketable borrowing is primarily driven by higher expenditures, due to a shift from the prior quarter and anticipated new legislation, largely offset by the higher beginning-of-July cash balance and higher receipts.

In other words, not only will the Treasury draw down on $922 billion in cash in the calendar quarter the ends in less than two months…

… but it will also sell enough debt to raise an additional $881 billion (net) which will also end up being spent, suggesting that in the current quarter the Treasury plans on spending a gargantuan $1.8 trillion!

But that’s not all, because in its first glimpse of Oct-Dec quarter funding needs, the Treasury now expects to borrow another $1.216 trillion in privately-held net marketable debt, once again assuming that the end-of-December cash balance remains unchanged from the Sept 30 balance of $800 billion. This means that the Treasury will spend an additional $1.2 trillion in the quarter ending Dec. 31, assuming every dollar it raises in the open market is then promptly spent (since the cash balance remains unchanged).

According to the Treasury, “these estimates assume $1 trillion of additional borrowing need in anticipation of additional legislation being passed in response to the COVID-19 outbreak.”

So what does this mean?

First, when putting together the actual data for the first three quarters of fiscal 2020 and adding the Fiscal Q4 estimate of $947BN in new issuance, the Treasury will borrow a record $4.5 trillion in Fiscal 2020, more than it borrowed in the previous view years combined!

Second, it means that for calendar Q3 and Q4, the Treasury will spend almost $3 trillion consisting of:

  • i) a drawdown in cash from $1722 billion to $800 billion, for $922 billion, in the quarter ending Sept 30
  • ii) new debt issuance of $947 billion in the same quarter and
  • iii) new debt issuance of $1,216 billion in the quarter ended Dec 31

… for a grand total of $3.085 trillion in new funds (either from spending cash or raising debt).

And even if the Treasury uses some of this cash to pay down maturing Bills (which we doubt as it will most likely keep rolling this short-term debt indefinitely with rates at all time lows), it still means that there will be nearly $3 trillion left for Congress and Trump to spend as they fit in order to boost the economy in the next few months to make sure there is no imminent economic crash. It also means that for all the posturing about whether the $1 trillion Republican or $3 trillion Democrat stimulus package is accepted, the Treasury is already budgeting for the latter.

Finally, with the presidential elections are looming, we hope that we don’t need to answer “why” – despite the Congressional theater – it is only a matter of time before this massive spending tsunami is unleashed.

END

Stories of despair from the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression

(Michael Snyder)

Unheard Stories Of Economic Despair From America’s Worst Economic Downturn Since The Great Depression

Authored by Michael Snyder via The End of The American Dream blog,

The economic pain that we are witnessing right now is far greater than anything that we witnessed during the last recession.  U.S. GDP declined by 32.9 percent on an annualized basis last quarter, more than 100,000 businesses have permanently shut down since the COVID-19 pandemic first hit the United States, and more than 54 million Americans have filed new claims for unemployment benefits over the last 19 weeks.  Up until just recently, a $600 weekly unemployment “supplement” and a federal moratorium that prevented many evictions had helped to ease the suffering for millions of American families, but both of those measures have now expired.

As a result, a tremendous amount of economic pain which had previously been deferred will now come rushing back with a vengeance.  Millions of American families are no longer going to be able to pay their bills, and experts are warning that we could soon see an “eviction crisis” that is absolutely unprecedented in American history.

48-year-old Thomas Darnell of West Point, Mississippi never thought that he would be in this position.  He had been a factory worker for over 20 years until he lost his job in May, and since then he hasn’t been able to find another.  And then on top of everything else, everyone in his house caught COVID-19…

First, he was furloughed for three weeks in April and then laid off in May. Then things got worse: His entire household of seven, including himself, his wife, three kids and daughter-in-law, along with his baby grandson, contracted coronavirus after they saw their immediate family over the Independence Day weekend.

“I’m tired and shaky. Even after a few weeks, I’m still trying to recover,” Darnell says, who has since been cleared of the virus but still has lingering symptoms.

He is concerned that employers will be scared away by his recent illness, and he is becoming desperate because he is running out of money.

With no health insurance and no paychecks coming in, Darnell and his wife have gotten to the point where they have to make a choice between buying insulin or buying groceries

He can’t afford health insurance, which has added to his anxiety because he and his wife are both diabetic, he says. Like Bolei, Darnell and his wife have been forced to make a grueling decision between either paying for their medications or keeping food on the table.

“Do we buy insulin or groceries? It’s a hard juggle,” Darnell says. “I’m willing to make less money and start working again to get health insurance, but no one is hiring.”

The weekly $600 unemployment supplements from the federal government had helped to keep them going for a while, but now those payments have ended, and the immediate future is looking quite bleak.

In Richmond, Virginia, a mother of eight named Shamika Rollins wasn’t sure how she was going to make it when her hours as a home health aid were reduced.  Unpaid bills started piling up, and then she got an eviction notice a few weeks ago.  The following comes from CBS News

Shamika Rollins’ eight children share two bedrooms in Richmond, Virginia. But she’s worried about losing their home after she says she received an eviction notice in June.

“First thing, I panic, and then next thing, I look, and I’m like, I got my kids. And it’s like, okay, now you gotta figure this out,” she told CBS News correspondent Adriana Diaz.

If a miracle does not happen, Rollins and her eight children will soon be out in the street, and this is causing her to have “a lot of sleepless nights”

“I have a lot of sleepless nights,” Rollins said. “My mind is constantly racing, you know, what’s your next move?”

Sadly, there are millions of other Americans in the exact same position.

In fact, experts are projecting that up to 40 million Americans could be evicted from their homes during this pandemic.

Many small business owners are also facing heartbreaking choices during this downturn.  A restaurant owner in Delaware named Alex Heidenberger “hasn’t paid the mortgage on his home the past four months” as he desperately tries to keep his once profitable restaurants alive…

Heidenberger, who typically draws about $20,000 a month in profit from the restaurant, now receives nothing. He says he hasn’t paid the mortgage on his home the past four months. He served lifeguard duty for a couple of weeks, mostly to help a beach crew depleted by COVID-19 quarantines but also to make some cash.

“I’m working harder than I have ever worked in my life,” he says, adding that he puts in about 80 hours a week at the two restaurants. Yet, “I have no money… This is all I think about. I don’t sleep.”

The COVID-19 pandemic has hit the restaurant industry particularly hard.  Americans are not eating out as regularly as they once did because of the virus, and it is probably going to remain that way for the foreseeable future.

In Massachusetts, a restaurant owner named John Pepper once had eight thriving locations, but at this point only two of them remain open

John Pepper used a PPP loan to pay employees and reopen four of his eight Boloco restaurants when Massachusetts lifted its shutdown order in early May. But with the money spent and business at the restaurants down as much as 70%, Pepper had to again close two locations. The staff of 125 he had before the virus outbreak is down to 50.

“A lot of this is out of our hands at this point,” Pepper says. “At this moment, I don’t see getting my full payroll back.”

Overall, we are facing a “restaurant apocalypse” in the U.S. that is unprecedented in size and scope.

According to one estimate, we could lose more than a third of all of our restaurants by the end of this calendar year

As many as 231,000 of the nation’s roughly 660,000 eateries will likely shut down this year, according to an estimate from restaurant consultancy Aaron Allen & Associates provided to Bloomberg News. This will bring the industry’s steady growth to a halt and mark the first time in two decades that U.S. restaurant counts don’t climb. Restaurants have already shed millions of jobs this year, economic data show.

What we are watching is truly horrifying.  So many hopes and dreams went into each one of those restaurants that are shutting down, and countless restaurant owners are going to be completely financially ruined by all of this.

For other Americans, this economic downturn has put their very lives at risk.  In Colorado, 70-year-old Catherine Azar was already dealing with heart problems and diabetes, and now she is in danger of being thrown out into the street

“It’s hard for me to conceive of someone being willing to put another person out in the street in the middle of a deadly pandemic, and I’m high risk. I’m 70. I have heart issues and I’m diabetic,” Azar said.

Rollins and Azar are just two of the 43 million Americans at risk of eviction in the coming months. For context, about 1 million Americans were evicted in 2010, the year after the Great Recession.

How long do you think that a 70-year-old woman with heart problems and diabetes would last on the street or in a shelter?

And as millions upon millions of Americans get evicted during the months ahead, the shelters are all going to fill up really fast.

America simply was not prepared for an economic downturn of this nature, and the truth is that much bigger challenges are still ahead.

So please do not look down on anyone that needs help right now, because soon you may find yourself in the exact same position.

END

Minneapolis

Letters sent out warning residents to prepare to be robbed

(Watson/Summitnews)

 

Minneapolis Authorities Warn Residents “Prepare” To Be Robbed & Obey Criminals

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

Authorities in Minneapolis sent out a letter to residents telling them to ‘prepare’ to be robbed and to obey criminals following a recent surge in robberies and carjackings.

“Be prepared to give up your cell phone and purse/wallet,” states the email, which also says that if a resident encounters a criminal, they should “do as they say.”

The advisory comes off the back of over two months of rioting, protests and unrest following the death of George Floyd.

h/t  @KyleHooten2

Minneapolis has experienced a 46% increase in carjackings and a 36% increase in robberies compared to this same time last year, while “Police in the city’s Third Precinct alone have received more than 100 reports of robberies and 20 reports of carjackings in just the last month,” reports Alpha News.

Minneapolis’ Congressional representative Ilhan Omar has also repeatedly called for the police force to be dismantled and replaced with an army of glorified social workers.

It appears as though authorities in the city have waved a white flag to criminals who will now be emboldened to target more victims who are less likely to put up any resistance.

*  *  *

There is a war on free speech. Without your support, my voice will be silenced. Please sign up for the free newsletter here. Donate to me on SubscribeStar here. Support my sponsor – Turbo Force – a supercharged boost of clean energy without the comedown.

 END
Why on earth, then do we need banks!! It is now virtually impossible to get a bank loan as lending standards soar
(zerohedge)

It’s Now Virtually Impossible To Get A Bank Loan As Lending Standards Soar

One quarter ago we pointed out something concerning: shortly after JPMorgan reported that its loan loss provision surged five fold to over $8.2 billion for the first quarter, the biggest quarterly increase since the financial crisis, in preparation for the biggest wave of commercial loan defaults since the financial crisis (a number which in the latest quarter surged to $10.5 billion along with all other banks’ loan loss provisions)…

… the bank hinted that things are about to get much worse when it first halted all non-Paycheck Protection Program based loan issuance for the foreseeable future (i.e., all non-government guaranteed loans) because as we said “the only reason why JPMorgan would “temporarily suspend” all non-government backstopped loans such as PPP, is if the bank expects a default tsunami to hit coupled with a full-blown depression that wipes out the value of any and all assets pledged to collateralize the loans.”

Shortly after, the bank also said it would raise its mortgage standards, stating that customers applying for a new mortgage will need a credit score of at least 700, and will be required to make a down payment equal to 20% of the home’s value, a dramatic tightening since the typical minimum requirement for a conventional mortgage is a 620 FICO score and as little as 5% down. Reuters echoed our gloomy take, stating that “the change highlights how banks are quickly shifting gears to respond to the darkening U.S. economic outlook and stress in the housing market, after measures to contain the virus put 16 million people out of work and plunged the country into recession.”

Finally, just days later, JPM also exited yet another loan product, when it announced that it has stopped accepting new home equity line of credit, or HELOC, applications. The bank confirmed that this change was made due to the uncertainty in the economy, and didn’t give an end date to the pause.

In short, JPM appeared to be quietly exiting the origination of all interest income generating revenue streams over fears of the coming recession, which prompted us to ask  “just how bad will the US depression get over the next few months if JPMorgan has just put up a “closed indefinitely” sign on its window.

On Monday, we got confirmation that it was not just JPMorgan but all US commercial  banks that are making the issuance of almost all new credit (with one notable exception) virtually impossible, when the Fed’s July senior loan officer survey showed that banks tightened lending standards across the board for C&I (commercial and industrial loans), CRE (commercial real estate), consumer (credit card and auto loans) and residential real estate (RRE) loans. The loan standards for most products – such as C&I loans, residential mortgages and credit cards – were hiked so much they nearly matched the standards during the financial crisis when it was virtually impossible to get any new loans.

This was the second quarter in a row in which loan officers reported sharply tighter financial conditions.

Just as concerning, demand for many loan products also slumped, and in the case of auto loans to record lows, with the exception of jumbo (both conforming and non-confirming) loans, which were roughly flat with demand boosted by record low interest rates.

Here are the details:

According to the July Fed’s Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS), lending standards for commercial and industrial (C&I) loans tightened in the second quarter with a near record 71% of banks on net tightened lending standards for large and medium-market firms (vs. only 42% on net in the previous quarter), while 70% of banks on net tightened lending standards for small firms (vs. 40% on net in the previous quarter). 59% of banks on net increased spreads of loan rates over the cost of funds for large firms, while 54% on net increased spreads for small firms. In short, anything that is not explicitly guaranteed by the government such as PPP loans, banks won’t go near with a ten foot pole for one simple reason: they have zero visibility if and when they will get repaid.

For banks that tightened credit standards or terms for C&I loans or credit lines:

  • 22% cited a deterioration in the bank’s capital position as playing a role,
  • 97% cited a less favorable or more uncertain economic outlook,
  • 85% cited a reduced tolerance for risk,
  • 31% cited decreased liquidity in the secondary market for loans,
  • 7% cited a deterioration in the bank’s own liquidity position,
  • 26% cited increased concerns about the effects of legislative changes, supervisory actions, or changes in accounting standards.

More ominously for a consumer driven economy, demand for C&I loans from large- and medium-sized firms weakened after strengthening in Q1. 23% of banks on net reported weaker demand for C&I loans for large and medium-market firms, compared to 8% on net reporting stronger demand in the previous survey.

The biggest hit was for commercial real estate (CRE) loans, where standard tightened significantly in Q2. 81% (+29pp) of banks on net reported tightening credit standards for construction and land development loans, 78% (+26pp) on net reported tightening standards for loans secured by nonfarm nonresidential properties, and 64% (+15pp) on net reported tightening lending standards for loans secured by multifamily residential properties. Demand for CRE loans fell significantly across all three categories.

While demand for mortgages rose modestly, banks made it more difficult to get a mortgage by significantly tightening lending standards for mortgage loans. Lending standards for GSE-eligible (+53pp to +55%), non-jumbo, non-GSE eligible (+48pp to 59%), Qualified Mortgage jumbo (+50pp to 69%), non-Qualified Mortgage jumbo (+55pp to 70%), non-Qualified Mortgage non-jumbo (+49pp to +64%), and subprime (+29pp to t43%) mortgages all tightened. In other words, all those pleading the case that housing is exploding due to surging loan demand, are forgetting that there is also supply they need to consider, and contrary to conventional wisdom, banks have rarely been less willing to hand out mortgage loans.

Finally, banks’ willingness to make consumer installment loans declined significantly in Q2 (-41% on net vs. -20% on net previously). At the same time, credit standards for approving credit card applications tightened (+72% on net vs. +39% previously), while a modest share of banks also tightened standards for auto loans (+55% vs. +16% previously). Demand for credit card loans declined (-65% on net vs. -23% previously), as did demand for auto loans (-49% vs. -35% previously).

iv) Swamp commentaries

THE CHAOS IN PORTLAND

Shootings, Murders Spike By Record In Portland After Disbanding ‘Gun Violence Reduction Team’

(zerohedge)

Violent crime in US metro areas surged this summer amid the pandemic, recession, and social unrest: A perfect storm of distress that is unraveling society.  

From Atlanta to Baltimore to New York City to Chicago to Houston to some major Californian metro areas, many of these democratically-controlled cities are facing an eruption in violent crime, including murders and thefts.

Readers may recall some of the cities listed above are the usual suspects when referring to metros with the most out of control crime in the US. Now Portland’s liberal utopia appears to be imploding, as murders in July jump.

Portland Police Bureau has responded to 15 homicides in July, which is a three-decade high, reported The Oregonian. The Portland Metropolitan Area has seen approximately 24 homicides this year. Besides homicides – assaults, burglaries, and vandalism are also increasing over last year’s figures.

Verified Non-Suicide Shootings In Portland 

Police Chief Chuck Lovell is concerned by the increase in violent crime. He’s shifted officers from patrols to aid in ongoing homicide investigations.

“That’s very concerning. I mean, to know that that many people have been killed in such a short period of time,” Lovell said at a recent virtual press conference.

At the same time, Lovell said Portland City Hall slashed its budget, which resulted in the massive defunding wave in early July that forced a sizeable cut in its Gun Violence Reduction Team. Also, there’s been at least a month of lawless anarchists destroying property in the area. The federal government sent in personnel to squash the uprising.

Since the Gun Violence Reduction Team was disbanded on July 1, Lovell has repeatedly linked it with the struggle to police the city.

The loss “forced us into a position where we have to really look at what resources we can bring to bear, absent that structure that we had with the Gun Violence Reduction Team,” he said.

In another recent press conference about the rise in homicides, Portland Mayor Ted Wheeler admitted the city had seen “an unprecedented escalation of gun violence.”

In the first 12 days of the month, officials witnessed an over 380 percent spike in such violence, compared to the same time period in 2019.

“This is the city we live. Portlanders, our neighbors, are being hurt by this violence. They’re being killed. The violence and the loss of life are unacceptable,” Wheeler added.

Liberal cities, ones that have defunded police and allowed anarchists to run wild, are seeing a perfect storm of distress flare up as the virus-induced downturn has unleashed a social-economic bomb.

end

You kill someone over a hamburger?  What is this world coming to?

(zerohedge)

Florida Man Shoots And Kills Burger King Employee After Order Takes Too Long

Today in “2020 couldn’t even surprise us if it tried anymore” news…

A woman in Orange County, Florida was so upset about the time it took for her to get her order at a Burger King, she commissioned a man to return to the restaurant and shoot one of its employees.

Deputies said that when they arrived, they found 22 year old employee Desmond Armond Joshua suffering from a gunshot wound in the parking lot. He was then taken to the area hospital where he was pronounced dead.

Video recovered from the scene showed Joshua in a physical altercation with a “male who had him in a headlock,” according to Click Orlando. One witness said the restaurant was busy the night of the incident and the drive-thru was backed up, causing customers to have to wait longer than usual.

One woman was so mad about waiting, she got out of her car and threatened to have “her man” return to the restaurant. The Burger King refunded her $40 and asked her to leave. She waited in the parking lot in her black sedan for a few minutes before driving away. Later, she returned in a white truck with 37 year old Kelvis Rodriguez-Tormes, who demanded that Joshua fight him.

A witness intervened in the fight when Rodriguez-Tormes put Joshua in a headlock and started to choke him.

Deputies then said Rodriguez-Tormes then went to his truck and got his gun, telling Joshua: “You got two seconds before I shoot you.”

Shortly thereafter, he shot Joshua and fled in the white truck. In an interview with police after the shooting, Rodriguez-Tormes said he dismantled the gun and placed it “in a location which cannot be located”.

Authorities said Joshua had just started working at the Burger King, days earlier. 

Burger King commented: “We are deeply saddened to hear of the tragic incident that took place at the Burger King on 7643 E. Colonial Drive and passing of team member Desmond Joshua. At Burger King, the safety of team members and guests is our top priority. The franchisee who owns and operates the restaurant is fully cooperating with authorities on this matter. Any questions should be directed to local authorities.”

 END
This ought to be fun:  The Dems have upped their demands to 3.4 trillion dollars
(zerohedge)

Democrats Up Stimulus Demand To $3.4 Trillion In Odd Negotiating Tactic

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi just revealed that Congressional Democrats not only won’t budge on their $3 trillion stimulus package passed by the House in May – she’s upped the demand to $3.4 trillion in order to ‘settle’ on a deal.

Asked by CNN’s Manu Raju if she still wants a stimulus deal this week, and if she has a price tag she’d be willing to settle on, Pelosi replied “Yeah, $3.4 trillion.”

White House Press Secretary Kayleigh McEnany described Pelosi’s new demand as ‘a mockery’ of the process.

Meanwhile, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) – who has called the $3 trillion Democratic proposal “another big laundry list” – has flat out rejected the left’s package, and has instead defended the Senate GOP’s $1 trillion stimulus bill.

The top Democratic and White House negotiators have held hours of talks this week in hopes of reaching a deal on another round of stimulus spending as key deadlines on extending a federal eviction moratorium and federal unemployment benefits have come and gone.

Pelosi, when asked if it’s really feasible to get a deal this week given how far apart the two sides are, said, “At some point you just have to freeze the design.” –CNN

The Speaker said she hopes lawmakers can reach a bipartisan agreement this week in order to hold a vote in the House by next week – which will require a Rules Committee meeting to determine the parameters for debate over the bill on the House floor.

“We are just right now identifying the justification for what we’re saying it costs — how the money would be spent,” said Pelosi. “And we’re asking the same for some of the things they are talking about, so that we have a clear understanding. So it’s productive in that regard. And now we just have to negotiate what comes next.

end

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

Trump has commenced his re-election campaign in earnest. He is taking or threatening actions that are
intended to boost the economy or ingratiate himself with American workers.

WaPo: Trump says he’s examining executive orders on stopping evictions, payroll taxes if he can’t
reach deal with Democrats – Comments come as negotiations continue on Capitol Hill, but the parties
are far apart

https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2020/08/03/congress-stimulus-coronavirus-trump/

Trump bans U.S agencies from firing citizens to replace them with foreigners, fires TVA chief
The order challenges federal contractors’ use of H-1B visas to bring in temporary foreign labor for
high-skilled jobs rather than relying on American workers.
“He gets $8 million a year, so that was just a succession of deep swamp things happening, and it’s a
disgrace,” Trump said. “So let this serve as a warning to any federally appointed board. If you betray
American workers, then you will hear two simple words, ‘You’re fired.'”…
https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/all-things-trump/trump-signs-order-banning-federal-agencies-firing-us-citizens

WSJ: U.S. Will Borrow Estimated $2 Trillion in Second Half of 2020, Treasury Says – bringing total
borrowing for fiscal year 2020 to $4.5 trillion…Estimate assumes Congress will pass $1 trillion of
additional stimulus

https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-will-borrow-estimated-2-trillion-in-second-half-of-2020-treasurysays-11596482647

@zerohedge: [Dallas Fed Prez] Kaplan: Economy Will Be Weaker if Jobless Aid Not Extended Having
failed at everything else, at least the Fed is now a climate change, race inequality and labor policy expert
[St. Louis Fed Prez] Bullard: Fed Wants to Do What It Can to Aid Racial Inequality
Like buying more Apple and Berkshire bonds

After 6 months without lockdown, Sweden’s COVID-19 deaths, infections bottom out
Open schools, little mask usage, few restrictions have flouted much of the world’s response.
According to the World Health Organization, Sweden’s daily deaths peaked in late April at 185 and
have been declining ever since; on some recent days, the country has recorded as few as nine deaths.
Daily new cases were in the low-to-mid-hundreds for most of July, and a few days no new cases were
recorded at all…

https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/coronavirus/after-6-months-no-lockdown-swedish-covid-deaths-bottomed-out

 

COVID Doc Says Hydroxychloroquine ‘Highly Effective’ and Fears Are Overblown – Now FDA
Chief Admits It Might Help – The US Food and Drug Commissioner Stephen Hahn said some studies
“suggest a benefit” to using the drug on COVID-19, despite the fact that the government agency issued
guidance stating the use of the drug should be avoided unless it’s being studied in a clinical trial or for
hospital use. In a radio interview, Hahn reiterated the fact that doctors are free to prescribe the drug “off
label,” and that the FDA “does not regulate the practice of medicine.”…

https://www1.cbn.com/cbnnews/health/2020/july/covid-doc-says-hydroxychloroquine-highly-effective-and-fears-are-overblown-now-fda-
chief-admits-it-might-help-nbsp

@yinonw: A month ago the Houston mayor said hospitalizations were growing “exponentially” and
would be overwhelmed in two weeks. This scared a lot of people. One month later COVID beds are down
33%. ICU COVID down 12%. Don’t expect the media to revisit the story.

https://t.co/8DjjRROJ3m

After Flynn unmaskings, U.S. intel won’t answer whether agencies spy on Congress
ODNI recently refused to answer if U.S. spy agencies monitor lawmakers, saying any admission could
reveal methods.

https://justthenews.com/accountability/russia-and-ukraine-scandals/unmasked-flynn-conversations-revive-another-debate-does

The MSM and Democrats’ push to prevent Biden from debating Trump has intensified.
Long-time DC Establishment columnist Liz Drew in NY Times: Let’s Scrap the Presidential Debates
They’ve become unrevealing quip contests.

Drew moderated the debate among Democratic candidates for the 1984 Presidential race.
NY Post Editorial Board: Suddenly Dems want to scrap presidential debates! Ha!
The 77-year-old Biden is famous for his gaffes, incoherent sentences, contradictions and non-sequiturs.
It’s why his cognitive state has become an issue. Fact is, Dems would never call for scrapping debates if
their nominee were a gifted orator. Yet if Biden can’t be trusted in front of a TV camera, how on earth
can he be trusted to run the country?
https://nypost.com/2020/08/03/suddenly-dems-want-to-scrap-presidential-debates-ha/

@TheBabylonBee: Biden Says He Can’t Wait To Find Out Who He Picked For VP
When NASA astronauts Bob Behnken and Doug Hurley landed the SpaceX Crew Dragon capsule in the
Gulf of Mexico off Pensacola, FL on Sunday, it was the first US splashdown in 45 years. The mission
was the first launch of American astronauts into orbit from US soil since the Space Shuttle was retired in
2011. It was the first Gulf of Mexico splash down in the 59-year history of NASA crewed flights. The
astronauts spent 64 days in space.
Why SpaceX Is a Game Changer for NASA [Spaceflight at a fraction of NASA costs]
https://www.forbes.com/sites/niallmccarthy/2020/06/04/why-spacex-is-a-game-changer-for-nasa-infographic/#2b5b21cf1656

@DineshDSouza: Elon Musk now runs our space program. How telling that private companies do
everything better than government agencies. Had UPS and FedEx not introduced the practice, the US
Post Office would probably still not have figured out how to deliver overnight mail.

@JohnStossel: 2 Americans just landed safely after spending 2 months in space. 11 years ago, an Obama
committee concluded that would take 12 years and cost $26 billion. Elon Musk did it in 6 years– for
less than $1 billion. Private competition is always better.

Well that is all for today

I will see you WEDNESDAY night.

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