AUGUST 7//HUGE RAID TODAY!!//GOLD DOWN $38.30 TO $2018.45//SILVER DOWN $.69 TO $27.57//CHINA VS USA: TRUMP ON THE WARPATH//CORONAVIRUS UPDATE/PHONY JOBS REPORT//ANDREW MAGUIRE A MUST VIEW//ALASDAIR MACLEOD: A MUST READ///SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

GOLD:$:  2,018.45  UP $38.30  The quote is London spot price (cash market)

 

 

 

 

Silver:$27.57// DOWN $0.69   London spot price ( cash market)

 

 

 

 

 

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Closing access prices:  London spot

i)Gold : $2035.00  LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

 

ii)SILVER:  $28.30//LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

CLOSING FUTURES PRICES:  KEY MONTHS

 

AUGUST GOLD:   $2012.00  CLOSE  1::30 PM  SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE AUG  (BACKWARD  $6.45)

OCT GOLD:  $2020.20  CLOSE 1.30 PM//   SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE OCT /:   : $1.75// BELOW NORMAL CONTANGO

 

 

DEC. GOLD  $2030.200   CLOSE 1.30 PM      SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE DEC   $11.75   ($ NORMAL CONTANGO)

 

 

CLOSING SILVER FUTURE MONTH

 

SILVER SEPT COMEX CLOSE;   $27.70…1:30 PM.//SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE SEPT//  :  13 CENTS  PER OZ  ( 10 CENTS ABOVE NORMAL CONTANGO)

SILVER DECEMBER  CLOSE:     $27.97  1:30  PM SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE DEC.       : 40  CENTS PER OZ  ( 28 CENTS ABOVE NORMAL CONTANGO)

 

COMEX DATA

 

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

receiving today: 185/594

issued 21

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: AUGUST 2020 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 2,051.500000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 08/06/2020 DELIVERY DATE: 08/10/2020
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
072 C GOLDMAN 500 1
072 H GOLDMAN 100
104 C MIZUHO 44
118 H MACQUARIE FUT 6
323 C HSBC 2
332 H STANDARD CHARTE 17
355 C CREDIT SUISSE 3
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 1 8
657 H MORGAN STANLEY 77
661 C JP MORGAN 21 119
661 H JP MORGAN 66
686 C INTL FCSTONE 2
690 C ABN AMRO 55 8
700 C UBS 16
709 C BARCLAYS 48
709 H BARCLAYS 1
732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 1
737 C ADVANTAGE 12 5
800 C MAREX SPEC 3 4
880 C CITIGROUP 1
880 H CITIGROUP 66
905 C ADM 1
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 594 594
MONTH TO DATE: 43,765

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  AUGUST CONTRACT: 594 NOTICE(S) FOR 59,400 OZ  (1.8475 tonnes)

 

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  43765 NOTICES FOR 4,376,500 OZ  (136.12 TONNES)

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR AUGUST

 

 

6 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 30,000  OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month: 1106 for 5.530 MILLION oz

 

BITCOIN MORNING QUOTE  $11,732  DOWN 29

 

BITCOIN AFTERNOON QUOTE.: $11,525 DOWN 280

 

GLD AND SLV INVENTORIES:

WITH GOLD DOWN $38.30 AND NO PHYSICAL TO BE FOUND ANYWHERE:

WITH ALL REFINERS CLOSED//MEXICO ORDERING ALL MINES SHUT:   WHERE ARE THEY GETTING THE “PHYSICAL?

NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD///

 

 

 

 

GLD: 1,267.96 TONNES OF GOLD//

 

 

WITH SILVER DOWN 69 CENTS TODAY: AND WITH NO SILVER AROUND:

A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE  SLV:

A DEPOSIT OF 465,000 OZ INTO THE SLV

 

 

 

 

RESTING SLV INVENTORY TONIGHT:

 

SLV: 573.029  MILLION OZ./

 

 

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Let us have a look at the data for today

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

IN SILVER THE COMEX OI ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 1953 CONTRACTS FROM 205,537 UP TO 207,490, AND CLOSER TO OUR NEW RECORD OF 244,710, (FEB 25/2020. THE  GAIN IN  OI OCCURRED WITH OUR STRONG $1.52 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. IT SEEMS THAT THE GAIN IN COMEX OI IS PRIMARILY DUE TO A MASSIVE   BANKER SHORT COVERING PLUS A STRONG EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE, ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION, ACCOMPANYING  A VERY TINY DECREASE IN SILVER OZ. STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR AUGUST.  WE HAD A STRONG NET GAIN IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 3838 CONTRACTS  (SEE CALCULATIONS BELOW).

 

 

 

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A HUGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE:   SEP 1886 DEC:  0 FOR ZERO ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  1886 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 1886 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 1886 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 9.439 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 152 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

7.32     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

2.630     MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOV.

20.970   MILLION OZ  FINAL STANDING IN DEC

5.075     MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JAN

1.480    MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN FEB

23.005  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAR

4.660  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR APRIL

45.220 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAY

2.205  MILLION OF FINAL STANDING FOR JUNE

86.470 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JULY.

6.275 MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST

 

THURSDAY, AGAIN OUR CROOKS USED COPIOUS PAPER IN ORDER TO LIQUIDATE SILVER’S PRICE…AND THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE 152 CENTS ).. AND,OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS  WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE ANY SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR POSITIONS. THE STRONG GAIN AT THE COMEX WAS ACCOMPANIED BY : i)  A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS 2) A TINY DECREASE IN SILVER OZ STANDING  FOR AUGUST,  MONSTROUS BANKER SHORT COVERING  AND 4) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AS  WE DID HAVE A STRONG NET GAIN OF 3839 CONTRACTS OR 19.19 MILLION OZ ON THE TWO EXCHANGES! YOU CAN BET THE FARM THAT OUR BANKER  ARE DESPERATE TO LIQUIDATE THEIR HUGE SHORT POSITIONS IN SILVER

 

SPREADING OPERATIONS/NOW SWITCHING TO SILVER

 

 

OUR SPREADING OPERATION HAS NOW SWITCHED INTO GOLD…..

SPREADING OPERATION FOR OUR NEWCOMERS:

 

FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS:

 

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED IN SILVER  AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF SEPT.

 

 

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEW, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE SPREADERS AND THE CRIMINAL ELEMENT BEHIND IT:

 HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

 

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR GOLD..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR SILVER.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

 

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

.

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO SILVER AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT FOR SILVER:

 

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF AUGUST. BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (SEPT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

 

 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

AUGUST

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY /FOR MONTH OF AUGUST:

6053 CONTRACTS (FOR 5 TRADING DAY(S) TOTAL 6053 CONTRACTS) OR 30.265 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1211 CONTRACTS OR 6.053 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF AUGUST: 30.265 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 4.32% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

 

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2020 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          1,301.65 MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2020 EFP TOTALS SO FAR: 181.61 MILLION OZ

FEB 2020 EFP’S TOTAL :  ……     259.600 MILLION OZ

MARCH EFP’S …..                     452.280 MILLION OZ  //TOTALS//AND A NEW RECORD FOR THE MONTH)

APRIL EFP                               95.355 MILLION OZ.  (EX. FOR PHYSICALS BECOMING A LOT LESS)

MAY EFP FINAL:                     77.27 MILLION OZ

JUNE EXP                              71.15 MILLION OZ.

JULY EXP                               133.95 MILLION OZ/ (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS STARTING TO RISE EXPONENTIALLY AGAIN)

AUGUST EXP                         30.265  MILLION OZ (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS INCREASING)

 

 

 

RESULT: WE HAD A CONSIDERABLE SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1953, WITH OUR STRONG 152 CENT GAIN  IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ///THURSDAY THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 1886 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER

 

TODAY WE GAINED A STRONG SIZED OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:  3839 CONTRACTS (WITH OUR  $1.52 GAIN IN PRICE)//

 

 

THE TALLY//EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

i.e 1886 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH A STRONG SIZED INCREASE OF 1943 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 152 CENT GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER/AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $28.26 // THURSDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY. 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.0275 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 146% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW AUGUST  DELIVERY MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 6 NOTICE(S) FOR 30,000  OZ OF SILVER.

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018. AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.70//TODAY’S RECORD OF 244,705 WAS SET WITH A PRICE OF: 18.91 (FEB 25/2020)

 

.

 

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 10.025 MILLION OZ/ SEPT 43.030 MILLION OZ//OCT: 7.665 MILLION OZ//   NOV: 2.630 MILLION OZ//DEC:  20.970 MILLION OZ; JAN:  5.075 MILLION OZ.//FEB 1.480 MILLION OZ//MAR: 23.005 MILLION OZ/APRIL 4.660 MILLION OZ//MAY  45.220 MILLION OZ//JUNE: 2.205 MILLION OZ// JULY 86.470 million oz//AUGUST 6.275 MILLION OZ//
  2. THE  RECORD PRIOR TO TODAY WAS SET IN FEB 25/2018:  244,710 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $18.90//.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

 

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 

GOLD

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 1695 CONTRACTS TO 553,130 AND FURTHER FROM  OUR NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE LOSS OF COMEX OI OCCURRED DESPITE OUR HUGE  RISE IN PRICE  OF $20.45 /// COMEX GOLD TRADING// THURSDAY// WE  HAD MONSTROUS BANKER SHORT COVERING, A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN GOLD TONNAGE STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR AUGUST, ALONG WITH ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION ACCOMPANYING A SMALL EXCHANGE FOR  PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. THIS ALL HAPPENED WITH OUR HUGE GAIN IN PRICE OF $20.45. 

 

 

WE HAD A VOLUME OF 5    4 -GC CONTRACTS//OPEN INTEREST  53

 

WE GAINED A SMALL SIZED 2252 CONTRACTS  (7.004 TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

 

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

 

 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A SMALL SIZED 3947 CONTRACTS:

CONTRACT .; AUG 0 AND OCT: 650 DEC: 3297; FEB: 0  ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO//TOTAL: 3947.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 553,130. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EXCHANGE DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 2252 CONTRACTS: 1695 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 3947 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 2245 CONTRACTS OR 7.004 TONNES. THURSDAY, WE HAD A HUGE GAIN OF $20.45 IN GOLD TRADING……

AND DESPITE THAT GAIN IN  PRICE, WE HAD A SMALL SIZED GAIN IN  TOTAL/TWO EXCHANGES GOLD TONNAGE OF 7.004 TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS/OFFICIAL SECTOR  WERE LOATHE TO SUPPLY SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER. THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE (IT ROSE $20.45) AS IT SEEMS THAT THE ENTIRE COMEX LOSS WAS DUE TO A MONSTER BANK SHORT COVERING.!!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:

WE HAD A SMALL SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS  (3947) ACCOMPANYING THE SMALL SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI  (1152 OI): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES:  2252 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1 )HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING, 2.)A GOOD INCREASE IN GOLD TONNAGE  STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR THE FRONT AUGUST MONTH,  3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION; 4) SMALL COMEX OI LOSS AND 5) SMALL EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE  AND  …ALL OF THIS WAS COUPLED WITH OUR VERY STRONG GAIN IN GOLD PRICE TRADING//THURSDAY//$20.45.

 

WE ARE BEGINNING TO WITNESS A LACK OF EXCHANGE FOR GOLD PHYSICALS UNDERWRITTEN DUE TO PREMIUMS STARTING TO REAPPEAR IN THE FUTURE PRICE OF GOLD VS LONDON SPOT. THE COST TO THE BANKERS IS JUST TOO GREAT TO ENGAGE IN THESE VEHICLES ONCE THIS OCCURS.

THE FACT THAT WE ARE CONTINUALLY SEEING A DROP IN COMEX OPEN INTEREST AND VOLUMES COUPLED WITH LESS EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS PROBABLY MEANS THAT OUR LONGS ARE ALREADY DEPARTING NEW YORK FOR THE NEW PHYSICAL PLATFORM AT LONDON’S LME.

 

 

 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2020 INCLUDING TODAY

AUGUST

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST : 11,921, CONTRACTS OR 1,192,100, oz OR 37.07 TONNES (5 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2384 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

 

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 5 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 37.07 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2019, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 37.07/3550 x 100% TONNES =1.04% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD HAS DISSIPATED THIS MONTHTHE COST TO THE BANKERS TO CARRY THESE CONTRACTS IN LONDON IS BECOMING TOO GREAT FOR THEM.

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2020 TO DATE   3,295.57  TONNES

JANUARY 2220 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE; : 570.19 TONNES

FEB 2020 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE :            653.78 TONNES

MARCH TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE                1,098.93  TONNES  (*AND A NEW ALL TIME RECORD ISSUANCE//22 DAYS)

APRIL TOTAL EFP. ISSUANCE:               243.45  TONNES  (EFP ISSUANCE BECOMING A LOT LESS)

MAY TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                     248.68 TONNES (EFP ISSUANCE STILL LOW// PREMIUM COST TO THE BANKERS IS HUGE..SO ISSUANCE IS LESS)

JUNE TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                     192.06 TONNES

JULY TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;                       313.09 TONNES ..(EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS REVERSE COURSE AND ARE NOW INCREASING!)

AUGUST TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;                 37.07 TONNES

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

 

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 1953 CONTRACTS FROM 205,537 UP TO 207,490 AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 3/4 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

THE STRONG SIZED GAIN IN OI SILVER COMEX WAS PRIMARILY DUE TO;   1)   A MONSTER BANKER SHORT COVERING , 2) A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (SEE BELOW), 3) A TINY DECREASE IN SILVER OZ  STANDING AT THE SILVER COMEX FOR AUGUST,  AND  4) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION 

 

EFP ISSUANCE 1886 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 SEPT: 1186 AND DEC. 0 AND  ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1886 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI GAIN  OF 1953  CONTRACTS TO THE 1886 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A STRONG GAIN OF 3838 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 19.19 MILLION  OZ, OCCURRED WITH OUR 152 CENT GAIN IN PRICE///

NOBODY IS LEAVING  THE SILVER ARENA AND NOBODY IS LEAVING THE GOLD ARENA (EXCEPT OUR BANKERS!!!)

 

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL..THE EVIDENCE IS CLEAR: HUGE AMOUNTS OF PHYSICAL STANDING FOR BOTH  SILVER AND GOLD .

(report Harvey)

 

 

 

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)FRIDAY MORNING/ THURSDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 32.43 POINTS OR 0.96%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 398.96 POINTS OR 1.60%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 88.21 POINTS OR 0.39%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .57%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.9586 /Oil UP TO 41.38 dollars per barrel for WTI and 44.59 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 6.9586 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.9598 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED/CORONAVIRUS/PANDEMIC  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A SMALL  SIZED 1695 CONTRACTS TO 553,130 MOVING FURTHER OUR  RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020).  AND ALL OF THIS SMALL COMEX DECREASE OCCURRED DESPITE OUR VERY STRONG  GAIN OF $20.45 IN GOLD PRICING /THURSDAY’S COMEX TRADING//). WE ALSO HAD A SMALL EFP ISSUANCE (3947 CONTRACTS),.  THUS, THE ONLY EXPLANATION IS THAT WE HAD 1) VERY STRONG BANKER SHORT COVERING AT THE COMEX AND 2)  ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AND 3)  STRONG INCREASE IN GOLD OZ  STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX//AUGUST DELIVERY MONTH (SEE BELOW) …  AS WE ENGINEERED A SMALL GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 2252 CONTRACTS DESPITE GOLD’S VERY STRONG GAIN IN PRICE.  WE HAVE LATELY WITNESSED THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL….. AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. 

 

 

 

(SEE BELOW)

 

 

WE  HAD 5    4 -GC VOLUME//open interest LOWERS TO 53

 

 

 

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A SMALL SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 3947 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  AUG  0 , OCT: 650  DEC 3297; FEB 00 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 3947 CONTRACTS.

YOU WILL FIND THAT WHEN WE HAVE A GOOD PREMIUM IN THE FUTURES/SPOT, THEN THE NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS DECLINE IN NUMBERS.  THE COST IS JUST TOO MUCH FOR THEM TO ISSUE. TODAY THAT PREMIUM WAS SMALL AND THUS A LITTLE MORE THAN USUAL OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WERE ISSUED.

 

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 2252 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 3947 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE LOST A SMALL SIZED 1695 COMEX CONTRACTS.  THE BANKERS ARE NOW LOATHE TO SUPPLY THE SHORT PAPER.  THEY CONTINUE TO ISSUE  SMALL AMOUNTS OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL AS THE COST ON CARRYING SERIAL FORWARDS IN LONDON IS TOO GREAT FOR THEM. WE HAD A MASSIVE BANKER SHORT COVERING AS THE BANKERS HAVE BEEN CAUGHT TERRIBLY OFFSIDE ON THEIR SHORT POSITIONS.. TODAY WE WITNESSED A GOOD INCREASE IN GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR AUGUST…..  WE NO DOUBT HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AS WE HAD A HUGE RISE IN COMEX PRICE OF 20.45 DOLLARS..

 

 

THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT ROSE $20.45).  AND, THEY WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING SOME LONGS 

AS THE TOTAL GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES REGISTERED  7.004 TONNES.

 

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES :: 2252, CONTRACTS OR 225200 OZ OR 7.004 TONNES.

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT COMMODITY FUTURES OPEN INTEREST SHOULD APPROXIMATE 3% OF TOTAL PRODUCTION.  IN GOLD THE WORLD PRODUCES AROUND 3500 TONNES PER YEAR BUT ONLY 2200 TONNES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE WEST (THUS EXCLUDING RUSSIA, CHINA ETC..WHO KEEP 100% OF THEIR PRODUCTION)

THUS IN GOLD WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:  553,130 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS X 100 OZ PER CONTRACT = 55.31 MILLION OZ/32,150 OZ PER TONNE =  1720 TONNES

THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST REPRESENTS 1720/2200 OR 78.19% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF GOLD.

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 401,037 contracts// very good volume//

 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  344,680 contracts//  volume fair //most of our traders have left for London

 

 

AUGUST 7 /2020

AUGUST GOLD CONTRACT MONTH

INITIAL STANDING FOR AUGUST GOLD

 

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
59,400.623 oz
HSBC
Manfra
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz 48,226.500 oz

Brinks

1500 kilobars

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

2121.96

OZ

BRINKS

 

 

66

KILOBARS

No of oz served (contracts) today
594 notice(s)
 59400 OZ
(1.8475 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
4528 contracts
(452800 oz)
14.083 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
43,765 notices
4,376,500 OZ
136.12 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

We had 1 deposit into the dealer

i) Int the dealer Brinks:  48,226.500 oz

1500 kilobars

 

 

 

 

 

 

total deposit: 48,226.500 oz

 

 

DEALER WITHDRAWAL: 0

 

 

 

 

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had 1 deposit into the customer account

i) Into Brinks: 2121.96 oz

66 kilobars

 

 

 

total deposit:  2121.96  oz

 

 

we had 2 gold withdrawals from the customer account:

i) Out of  HSBC:  58,339.640 oz

ii) Out of Manfra:: 1060.983 oz

 

total withdrawals;  59,400.623 oz

 

 

 

We had 2  kilobar transactions  +

 

ADJUSTMENTS: 0 //

 

 

 

 

 

The front month of AUGUST registered a total of 5122 CONTRACTS as we lost 1743 contracts. We had 1822 notices served on THURSDAY so we GAINED 79 contracts or an additional 7,900 will stand for delivery on this side of the pond as they refused to morph into London based forwards as well as negating a fiat bonus. The boys are scrambling in search of badly needed physical metal.

 

 

 

 

 

After August we have the non active Sept contract month.. Here we saw another gain of 27 contracts to stand at 2990.  Oct LOST 723 contracts DOWN to 70,073

 

The big December contract LOST 443 contracts down to 409,103 contracts.

(December is generally the go to month for longs.  To see this number contract with a huge 20 dollar gain in price in gold speaks volumes that we had a wicked short covering today. Also the other active delivery month , October also saw a considerable contraction)

 

We had 594 notices filed today for  59,400 oz

 

FOR THE AUGUST 2020 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 21 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 594 contract(s) of which 66  notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 119 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan//customer account and 1 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the AUGUST /2020. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (43,765) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  AUGUST (5122 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today (594 x 100 oz per contract) equals 4,829,300 OZ OR 150.0211 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this active month of JUNE

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the AUGUST/2020 contract month:

No of notices filed so far (43,765, x 100 oz + (5122 OI) for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (594) x 100 oz which equals 4,829300 oz standing OR 150.0211 TONNES in this  active delivery month. This is a HUGE  amount for gold standing for a AUGUST delivery month (an active delivery month).

We gained 79 contracts or 7900 oz of gold as these guys refused to morph into London based forwards.

 

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:  BRINKS

 

144,088.952 oz NOW PLEDGED  JAN 21.2020/HSBC  5.4807 TONNES

271,997.477 oz PLEDGED  JULY 9// 2020  JPMORGAN:  8.46 TONNES

42,548.308.00 PLEDGED  APRIL 3/2020: SCOTIA:            1.3234 tonnes

deleted Int. Delaware pledge July 7  (600 tonnes)

231,924.295 oz  (some deleted august 3)         JPM

653,730.982 oz pledged June 12/2020 Brinks/   july 2/july 21               20.333 tonnes

total pledged gold:  1,052,918.710 oz                                     32.75 tonnes

 

 

 

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES…. WE HAVE 451.07 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS i.e. 150.0211 tonnes

CALCULATION OF REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SETTLED UPON:

total registered or dealer  15,555,003.982 oz or 483.82 tonnes
which  includes the following:
a) pledged gold held at HSBC   which cannot settled upon   144,088.952 oz x ( 4.4817 TONNES)//
b) pledged gold held at JPMorgan (SOME  DELETED JUNE 24 2020/SOME JULY 9; SOME JULY 22/July 03/august 3) which cannot be settled upon:  231,924.295 oz (or 7.2138 tonnes)
total pledged gold:
c)  pledged gold at Scotia: 1.3234 tonnes or 42,548.308 oz which cannot be settled  (1.3234 tonnes)
d) pledged gold at Manfra:  DELETED  MAY 26.2020
e) pledged gold at int.Del.    DELETED:   JULY 7.2020
f) pledged gold at Brinks:  DELETED july 2 and july 21
g) pledged gold at Brinks: 653,730.982 oz added which cannot be settled:  20.333 tonnes
total weight of pledged:  1,052,918.710 oz or 32.75 tonnes
thus:
registered gold that can be used to settle upon:  14,502085.0  (451.07 tonnes)
true registered gold  (total registered – pledged tonnes  14,502,085.0 (445.07 tonnes)
total eligible gold:  20,862,926.110 oz (648.92 tonnes)

total registered, pledged  and eligible (customer) gold;   36,417,930.092 oz 1,132.75 tonnes (INCLUDES 4 GC GOLD)

total 4 GC gold:   126.34 tonnes

total gold net of 4 GC:  1006.41 tonnes

 

end

 

I have compiled  data with respect to registered (or dealer) gold taken on first day notice for each of the past 24 months

The data begins on first day notice for the May month taken on the last day of July 2018. and it continues to present day.

 

I then took, how many deliveries were recorded by the CME for each and every month.  I also included for reference the price of gold on first day notice.

 

The first graph is a logarithmic  graph and the second graph, linear.

You can see the huge explosion of registered gold at the comex along with deliveries.

 

 

THE DATA AND GRAPHS:

 

 

 

THE GOLD COMEX SEEMS TO BE  UNDER SEVERE ASSAULT FOR PHYSICAL

 

END

AUGUST 7/2020

And now for the wild silver comex results

 

 

AUGUST SILVER COMEX CONTRACT MONTH//INITIAL STANDINGS

Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 607,725.748 oz
CNT
Delaware

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
2,760,018.460 oz
JPMorgan
Scotia
No of oz served today (contracts)
3
CONTRACT(S)
(15,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
149 contracts
 745,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  1106 contracts

5,530,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
We had 0 deposit into the dealer:

total dealer deposits: nil  oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

 

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had 2 deposits into the customer account

i)into JPMorgan:   1,195,751.900 oz

 

 

 

ii) Into Scotia: 154,266.560 oz

 

 

 

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017, 2018 and onward, has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 164.3 million oz of  total silver inventory or 48,33% of all official comex silver. (164.3 million/337.1 million

 

total customer deposits today:  n2,760,018.460   oz

we had 2 withdrawals:

 

 

 

i)   Out of CNT:  604,784.748 oz

ii) Out of Delaware:  2941.000 oz ??

 

 

 

 

total withdrawals; 607,725.748    oz

We had 0 adjustments

Total dealer(registered) silver: 127.437 million oz

total registered and eligible silver:  337.159 million oz

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

the front month of August registered an open interest of 155 contracts and thus we lost 8 contracts.  We had 3 notices filed on Thursday so we lost 5 contracts or 25,000 oz will not  stand for delivery as these guys morphed into London based forwards as well as accepting a fiat bonus for their efforts…. The bankers are now desperate in their search for badly needed silver whether it is on this side of the pond or the European side.

 

 

 

After August we have the  big September contract month and here we see a lost 2571 contracts down to 131,868. November saw another gain of 5 contracts to stand at 107.

For September to contract this big on a strong price gain means we also had a massive shortcovering by our bankers.

The big December contract month saw its OI rise by strong 4096 contracts up to 64,898

 

The total number of notices filed today for the AUGUST 2020. contract month is represented by 6 contract(s) FOR 30,000, oz

 

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in AUGUST we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 1106 x 5,000 oz = 5,530,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of AUGUST.(155) and the number of notices served upon today 6 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

 

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the AUGUST/2019 contract month: 1106 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of AUGUST (155)- number of notices served upon today (6) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the AUGUST contract month.equals 6,275,000 oz. ..VERY STRONG FOR A NON ACTIVE MONTH.(corrected from an error yesterday)

We lost 5 contracts or an additional 25,000 will not stand for delivery.

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME : 308,626 CONTRACTS // volume huge++++++++++++++/

 

 

FOR YESTERDAY: 265,871.  ,CONFIRMED VOLUME//volume huge+++++++/

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 265,871 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 1.329 billion  OZ 189% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

 

NPV for Sprott

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV  FALLS TO- 2.77% ((AUGUST 7/2020)

2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV  FALLS TO -1.02% to NAV:   (AUGUST 7/2020 )

Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ 2.77%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA

3. SPROTT CEF .A   FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 21.44 TRADING 20.96///NEGATIVE 2.23

END

 

 

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

AUGUST 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $38.30 TODAY, WE HAVE NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1267.96 TONNES

AUGUST 6/WITH GOLD UP $20.45 TODAY, WE HAVE ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 10.23 TONNES INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1267.96  TONNES//

AUGUST 5/WITH GOLD UP $ 33.75 TODAY, WE HAVE A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/A DEPOSIT OF 9.35 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1257.73 TONNES

AUGUST 4//WITH GOLD UP $31.75 TODAY, WE HAVE A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A DEPOSIT OF 6.48 TONNES/GLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 1248.38 TONNES

AUGUST 3/WITH GOLD UP $2.20 TODAY, WE HAVE NO CHANGES IN THE GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1241,96 TONNES

JULY 31/WITH GOLD UP $17.90 TODAY/WE HAVE NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1241.96 TONNES.

JULY 30/WITH GOLD DOWN  $10.00 TODAY, WE HAVE ANOTHER SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1241.96 TONNES.

JULY 29//WITH GOLD UP  $12.45 TODAY, WE HAVE ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 8.47 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1243.12 TONNES

JULY 28///WITH GOLD UP $13.25 TODAY, WE HAVE ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 5.84 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1234.65

JULY 27//WITH GOLD UP $35.30 TODAY, WE HAVE NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A DEPOSIT OF XXX TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1228.81 TONNES

JULY 24/WITH GOLD UP $8.80 TODAY: WE HAVE ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.80 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1228.81 TONNES

JULY 23/WITH GOLD UP $24.90 TODAY: WE HAVE A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A DEPOSIT OF 7.26 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1225.01 TONNES

JULY 22/WITH GOLD UP $22.00 TODAY: WE HAVE A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/ A DEPOSIT OF 7.89 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1219.75 TONNES

JULY 21//WITH GOLD UP $26.00 TODAY, WE HAVE A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.97 TONNES INTO THE GLD// INVENTORY RESTS AT 1211.86 TONNES

JULY 20/WITH GOLD UP $7.70 TODAY, WE HAVE NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1206.89 TONNES

JULY 17/WITH GOLD UP $7.70 TODAY, WE HAVE NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: /INVENTORY RESTS AT 1206.89 TONNES

JULY 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.80 TODAY, WE HAVE NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: INVENTORY RESTS AT 1206.89 TONNES

JULY 15//WITH GOLD UP $1.55 TODAY/A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A DEPOSIT OF 2.96 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1206.89 TONNES

JULY 14//WITH GOLD DOWN $1.65 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/A DEPOSIT OF 3.51 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1203.97 TONNES

JULY 13//WITH GOLD UP $12.50 TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.36 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1200.46 TONNES

JULY 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $.50 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A STRANGE WITHDRAWAL  OF 1.75 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1200.82 TONNES

JULY 9//WITH GOLD DOWN $11.75 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OX 3.21 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1202.57 TONNES

JULY 8/WITH GOLD UP $13.75 TODAY; A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 7.89 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1199.36 TONNES

JULY 7/WITH GOLD UP $12.50 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: /INVENTORY RESTS AT 1191.47 TONNES

JULY 6/WITH GOLD UP $6.50 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 9.36 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1191.47 TONNES

JULY 2/WITH GOLD UP $7.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.21 TONNES INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1182.11 TONNES

JULY 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.90//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: /INVENTORY RESTS AT 1178.90 TONNES

JUNE 30//WITH GOLD UP $16.50 TODAY: NO CHANGE  IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1178.90 TONNES

JUNE 29/WITH GOLD UP $2.90 TODAY: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 3.61 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1178.90 TONNES

JUNE 26/WITH GOLD UP $5.03 TODAY: VERY STRANGE: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL  OF 1.46 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1175.39 TONNES

JUNE 25//WITH GOLD DOWN $3.30 TODAY//ANOTHER STRONG PAPER DEPOSIT OF 7.6 TONNES///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1176.85 TONNES

JUNE 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.50 TODAY;  A STRONG 3.21 TONNES ADDED TO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1169.25  TONNES

JUNE 23/WITH GOLD UP $25.50 TODAY/ANOTHER CRIMINAL PAPER DEPOSIT OF 6.73 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1166.04 TONNES

JUNE 22/WITH GOLD UP $14.00 A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 23.09 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1159.31 TONNES

JUNE 19/WITH GOLD UP$16.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//; INVENTORY RESTS AT 1136.22 TONNES

JUNE 18//WITH GOLD DOWN $2.75 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY: INVENTORY RESTS AT 1136.22 TONNES

JUNE 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.05: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1136.22 TONNES

JUNE 16//WITH GOLD UP $6.70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY: /INVENTORY RESTS AT 1136.22 TONNES

JUNE 15/WITH GOLD DOWN ANOTHER $8.80 TODAY, NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1136.22 TONNES

JUNE 12//WITH GOLD DOWN $1.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 1.17 TONNES AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1136.22 TONNES

JUNE 11//WITH GOLD UP $16.80 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 6.55 TONNES AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1135.05 TONNES

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

Inventory rests tonight at

AUGUST 7/ GLD INVENTORY 1267.96 tonnes*

LAST;  876 TRADING DAYS:   +328.52 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN ADDED THE GLD

 

LAST 776 TRADING DAYS://+506.99  TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

 

end

 

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

AUGUST 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 69 CENTS TODAY: WE HAVE ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 0.465 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 573.029 MILLION OZ.

AUGUST 6/WITH SILVER UP $1.52 TODAY, WE HAVE NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 572.564 MILLION OZ///

AUGUST 5/WITH SILVER UP $1.03 TODAY, WE HAVE A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A MONSTROUS DEPOSIT OF 5.403 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 572.564 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 4/WITH SILVER UP $1.45 TODAY, WE HAVE NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: //INVENTORY RESTS AT 367.161 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 3/WITH SILVER UP 23 CENTS TODAY: WE HAVE A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//SURPRISINGLY ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 0.931 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 367.161 MILLION OZ//

JULY 31/WITH SILVER UP 82 CENTS TODAY: WE HAVE A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: SURPRISINGLY A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.26 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 368.092 MILLION OZ//

JULY 30//WITH SILVER DOWN 97 CENTS TODAY: WE HAVE A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL  OF 0.931 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 571.352 MILLION OZ//

JULY 29/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY, WE HAD A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY//A DEPOSIT OF 5.984 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 572.283 MILLION OZ//

JULY 28  WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY, WE HAD A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 7.52 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 566.299 MILLION OZ//

JULY 27/WITH SILVER UP $2.67 TODAY, WE HAD NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF XX MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 558.779 MILLION OZ//

JULY 24/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.12 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 558.779 MILLION OZ/

JULY 23/WITH SILVER UP $.04 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A HUMONGOUS PAPER DEPOSIT OF 9.594 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 558.779 MILLION OZ///

JULY 22/WITH SILVER UP $1.54 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A HUMONGOUS PAPER DEPOSIT OF 7.218 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 549.185 MILLION OZ/

JULY 21/WITH SILVER UP $1.38 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A HUMONGOUS PAPER DEPOSIT OF 15.368 MILLION OZ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 541.967 MILLION OZ//

JULY 20/WITH SILVER UP 40 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:  A MASSIVE PAPER DEPOSIT OF 3.819 MILLION OZ ‘ENTERED” THE SLV..INVENTORY RESTS AT 526.599 MILLION OZ/

JULY 17/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A DEPOSIT OF 1.583 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 522.780 MILLION OZ//

JULY 16//WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF  5.123 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 521.197 MILLION OZ..

JULY 15.WITH SILVER  UP 21 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.956 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 516.074 MILLION OZ//

JULY 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY REST AT 514.118 MILLION OZ//

JULY 13//WITH SILVER UP 67 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.677 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 514.118 MILLION OZ//

JULY 10/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A DEPOSIT OF 4.844 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT  515.795 MILLION OZ

WHAT A FRAUD!!

JULY 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A DEPOSIT OF 8.198 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 510.951 MILLION OZ/

JULY 8/WITH SILVER UP 37 CENTS TODAY//A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.118 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//VERY SURPRISING.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 502.753 MILLION OZ//

JULY 7/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 503.871 MILLION OZ///

JULY 6//WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.863 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 503.871 MILLION OZ

JULY 2/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//: A DEPOSIT OF 4.01 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 502.008 MILLION OZ

JULY 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 5.403 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.007 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 30/WITH SILVER UP 39 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.604 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 29/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY: A TWO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 466,000 OZ TO PAY FOR STORAGE FEES AND INSURANCE//// AND A LARGE DEPOSIT OF 1.212 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.604 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 26/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ RESTS AT 491.858 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 25/WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 931,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.858 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 24///WITH SILVER DOWN 31 CENTS// NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.927 MILLION OZ

JUNE 23//WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY: A MONSTROUS CHANGE IN INVENTORY: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 4.473 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.927 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 22/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 486/454 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 19//WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS TODAY: STRANGE!!  A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 839,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 486,454 MILLION OZ..

JUNE 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 932,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.293 MILLION OZ

JUNE 17/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.261 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY REST AT 486.361 MILLION OZ

JUNE 16//WITH SILVER UP 20 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.118 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.100 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: //INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.982  MILLION OZ///

JUNE 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 30 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: TWO DEPOSITS OF 7.269 MILLION OZ AND 1.802 MILLION OZ ADDED TO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS THIS WEEKEND AT 481.982 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 11//WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.89 MILLION OZ//

 

AUGUST 7.2020:

SLV INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT

573.029 MILLION OZ.

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

 

 

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

Authers comments on what is the correct price for gold!

(John Authers)

John Authers: Gold is expensive, and may be just warming up

 Section: 

By John Authers
Bloomberg News
Thursday, August 6, 2020

As I write, gold has surged to yet another record, topping $2,050 per ounce. Is it overpriced?

The question is impossible to answer. Gold’s value rests in the eye of the beholder, and over recorded human history people have continued to find it beautiful. It pays no income, and its intrinsic value is set by the market. Valuation techniques that work for other assets won’t work for gold.

The fact that we will never scientifically arrive at a “correct” price need not stop us from trying, however. And after going through the various valuation exercises, the rally looks rational. While the current price looks expensive, it could easily rise further. …

… For the remainder of the analysis:

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-08-06/gold-is-expensive-…

end

We brought this story to you yesterday but it is worth repeating:  China and Russia are ditching the dollar and move to a financial alliance

(Nikkei Asian Review/GATA)

China and Russia ditch dollar in move toward ‘financial alliance’

 Section: 

By Dimitri Simes
Nikkei Asian Review, Tokyo
Thursday, August 6, 2020

MOSCOW — Russia and China are partnering to reduce their dependence on the dollar — a development some experts say could lead to a “financial alliance” between them.

In the first quarter of 2020, the dollar’s share of trade between Russia and China fell below 50% for the first time on record, according to recent data from Russia’s Central Bank and Federal Customs Service.

The greenback was used for only 46% of settlements between the two countries. At the same time, the euro made up an all-time high of 30%, while their national currencies accounted for 24%, also a new high.

Russia and China have drastically cut their use of the dollar in bilateral trade over the past several years. As late as 2015, approximately 90% of bilateral transactions were conducted in dollars. Following the outbreak of the U.S.-China trade war and a concerted push by both Moscow and Beijing to move away from the dollar, however, the figure had dropped to 51% by 2019.

Alexey Maslov, director of the Institute of Far Eastern Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences, told the Nikkei “Asian Review that the Russia-China “de-dollarization” was approaching a “breakthrough moment” that could elevate their relationship to a de-facto alliance. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/China-and-Russi.

end

Pam and Russ Martens: Sri Lanka is top user of Fed emergency lending program

 Section: 

By Pam and Russ Martens
Wall Street on Parade
Thursday, August 6, 2020

At Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference on July 29, he persisted in his explanation that all the Fed’s bailout programs are really about helping the American people get back on their feet. Here’s one more, among a growing mountain, of reasons to question that.

Sri Lanka is an island country situated in the Indian Ocean and located about 9,000 miles from the United States. Its population of approximately 21 million ranks it the size of Florida. Despite those statistics, Sri Lanka somehow became the main participant in an emergency lending facility set up by the Fed.

According to an official statement by the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL), “The CBSL has decided to pledge a sum of US$1 billion worth of U.S. Treasury Bonds held in the CBSL reserve and enter into the above type of repo facility with the Fed. This would permit the CBSL to raise US$1 billion in cash form when required.

“When this repo facility is settled by the CBSL, there will be no change in the CBSL reserve position as the Fed would release the pledged bonds back to the CBSL. The cost to the CBSL would be the applicable repo fee, which is about 0.35 percent per annum.” …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://wallstreetonparade.com/2020/08/the-fed-created-an-emergency-lend…

end

A must view:  Andrew Maguire talks about the reset of gold price

(Andrew Maguire/Part ii/Chris Marcus)

In Arcadia Economics interview, Maguire elaborates on expectation of metals price ‘reset’

 Section: 

2:10p ET Thursday, August 6, 2020

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

In the concluding half hour of his interview with Chris Marcus of Arcadia Economics, London metals trader and Kinesis Money founder Andrew Maguire elaborates on his expectation for a “reset” of monetary metals prices in coming weeks, notes the unprecedented amount of metals deliveries being made on the futures markets, and finds it hard to believe that the New York Commodities Exchange will be able to deliver on all the silver due in its September contracts.

The interview can be viewed at YouTube here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7SX1Pv6foC8&feature=youtu.be

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

Your weekend reading..

important…

Alasdair Macleod…

Alasdair Macleod: Passing $2,000 is no big deal for gold as it heads to infinity

 Section: 

5:29p ET Thursday, August 6, 2020

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

GoldMoney research director Alasdair Macleod, writing today, sees little chance of an international currency reset involving gold and silver. Instead, Macleod argues, government currencies are simply going to collapse under infinite issuance and take down with them not only the corrupt fractional-reserve gold banking system but equity markets as well, pushing monetary metals prices to infinity.

Hence, Macleod writes, gold’s passing $2,000 per ounce is no big deal in the unfolding age of infinite fiat money.

Macleod concludes that only restoration of a metallic money system and restraint on government spending can establish a working financial system.

His scary analysis is headlined “Gold at $+2k — So Why the Fuss?” and it’s posted at GoldMoney here:

https://www.goldmoney.com/research/goldmoney-insights/gold-at-2k-so-why-…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

 

Gold at $2k+. So why the fuss?

There appears to be no way out for the bullion banks deteriorating $53bn short gold futures positions ($38bn net) on Comex. An earlier attempt between January and March to regain control over paper gold markets has backfired on the bullion banks.

 Unallocated gold account holders with LBMA member banks will shortly discover that that market is trading on vapour. According to the Bank for International Settlements, at the end of last year LBMA gold positions, the vast majority being unallocated, totalled $512bn — the London Mythical Bullion Market is a more appropriate description for the surprise to come.

An awful lot of gold bulls are going to be disappointed when their unallocated bullion bank holdings turn to dust in the coming months — perhaps it’s a matter of a few weeks, perhaps only days — and synthetic ETFs will also blow up. The systemic demolition of paper gold and silver markets is a predictable catastrophe in the course of the collapse of fiat money’s purchasing power, for which the evidence is mounting. It is set to drive gold and silver much higher, or more correctly put, fiat currencies much lower.

This is only the initial catalysing phase in the rapidly approaching death of fiat currencies.

Screen Shot 2020 08 06 at 11.24.51 AM

Sections to this article

    1. Introduction
    2. The rescue attempt has already failed
    3. The financial system depends entirely on inflationary fiat
    4. Forget currency resets
    5. Transition pains on Comex
    6. London’s hidden liabilities
    7. Conclusion

 

Introduction

Measured in dollars, the current bull market for gold started in December 2015, since when the price in dollars has almost doubled. Other than the odd headline when gold exceeded its previous September 2011 high of $1920, only gold bugs seem to be excited. But in our modern macroeconomic world of government-issued currencies, which has moved on from the days when gold operated as a monetary standard, it is viewed as an anachronism; a pet rock, as Jason Zweig of the Wall Street Journal called it in 2015, only a few months before this bull market commenced.

Despite almost doubling, Zweig’s view of gold is still mainstream. His comment follows the spirit of today’s macroeconomic hero, John Maynard Keynes, who called the gold standard a barbaric relic in his 1924 Tract on Monetary Reform. Keynes went on to invent macroeconomics on the back of his 1936 General Theory, and whether you profess to be Keynesian or not, as an investor you will almost certainly kowtow to macroeconomics. It has been well-nigh impossible to have a successful career in the investment industry unless you subscribed to inflationist Keynesian theories. You are required to substitute the economics of aggregates for those of the human action of individuals, upon which classical economics was based. And with it, you must unquestionably accept the state theory of money.

Well, we are now witnessing the cataclysmic ending of the Keynesian fallacy; the destruction of macroeconomics in a systemic failure centred on paper markets for gold and silver.

The rescue attempt has already failed

You may have missed the establishment’s last-ditch attempt earlier this year to save itself. Figure 1 below shows its failure.

Screen Shot 2020 08 06 at 11.25.08 AM

Comex open interest peaked in January, when the gold contract was being overwhelmed by global demand. Never before had open interest been this high: the previous all-time record had been in July 2016, when it hit 658,000 contracts. At that time, the market had recovered strongly from a deeply oversold condition, the price rallying from the December low in our headline chart, from $1049 to $1380. That was successfully crushed with open interest taken down to 392,000 and the gold price to $1120. However, the take-down which commenced in earnest in January this year did not succeed.

There is no question it was a coordinated attempt by the bullion bank establishment to contain a developing crisis. From its peak of 799,541 contracts on 15 January open interest fell to 553,030 on 23 March. Initially, the gold price continued rising to $1680 on 9 March, but by 18March it finally reacted, falling to $1471 in only nine trading sessions. But while open interest went on to fall to 470,000 in early-June, the price exploded higher with unprecedented price premiums developing on Comex from 23 March onwards. The bullion banks’ short exposure net of longs on Comex in a rising market had risen to $35bn and the gross position was $53.5bn before the attempt to drive the market lower. Today, the respective figures are $38.3 and $53bn.

The failure of this well-worn tactic precludes it from being used again. We look at the seriousness of the current position on Comex and the LBMA later in this article.

The financial system depends entirely on inflationary fiat

In the investment industry it is monetary debasement that gives you your living. For the rise in the general level of prices of financial assets, measured by various indices, is little more than a reflection of the loss of purchasing power of your state’s currency. The world has been enjoying the phenomenon particularly from the mid-1970s, four years after the last vestiges of Keynes’s barbarous relic, when President Nixon removed pet rocks from the monetary scene. A continual decline in the dollar’s purchasing power ensued. Apart from the occasional hiccup, from 1982 when the S&P500 Index rose from 291.34 to today’s 3,270 the general public has appeared to make money.

It has not been an easy environment to convincingly challenge, being populated by group-thinkers believing their stock and property gains have been the consequence of their individual financial acumens. But one of those periodic hiccups is now upon us, threatening to be more disruptive than anything seen hitherto in our lifetimes, which the macroeconomists in the central banks and governments tell us will require virtually unlimited inflationary finance to resolve.

The distinction between unlimited fiat currency being issued by the state compared with gold is important, because gold was always the money of the people, disliked by governments because its disciplines are limiting. History has always seen the right to issue money taken away from the failures of kings, emperors and governments and handed back to the people, so the empirical evidence is that it will happen again. But macroeconomists argue that their science is an advance on former economic science, so what went before is irrelevant. Therefore, so is gold.

For these reasons, the investment industry is not attuned to gold. Physical gold is not even a regulated investment, which means that government regulators do not permit the funds they license to hold physical metal beyond, if permitted at all, a small exposure. The uncontentious position, taken by nearly all compliance officers, is for investment managers not to hold any. But besides mining stocks, today there are exchange-traded funds that do offer some investment exposure to gold for fund managers. Assuming, that is, they are willing to contradict the Keynesian views of their colleagues.

But even then, the context is wrong. Gold is not an investment but money, driven out of circulation over the last hundred years by the steady encroachment of gold substitutes evolving into pure unbacked fiat. It is no one’s liability, unlike the dollar, for instance, backed only by the full faith and credit in the Donald — or will it be Joe Biden. In the case of the euro or the yen, with negative interest rates and having banking systems arguably on the point of collapse, their central banks are similarly committed to accelerating debauchment of their currencies.

Even semi-official gold bugs, like the World Gold Council, promote gold as a portfolio investment, with its income arising from the securitisation of gold through the GLD ETF. An audience of professional investment managers, which subsists on an intellectual diet of macroeconomics, does not readily accept that gold is money, and if the World Gold Council argued that it is money and not an investment, they would doubtless fail to attract institutional investors.

But an understanding that gold is money is a vital distinction. When you regard it as an investment, you expect to sell it when its positive trend ends. You assume your government’s currency will always have the objective transactional value and gold is the subjective variable. Accounting conventions force investment managers and advisors to ignore the reality that it is the currency failing and not the price of gold rising. Even the overwhelming majority of gold bugs cheer a rising gold price, instinctively treating it as an investment which rises in value, measured in fiat.

The objective/subjective confusion is the most important concept to understand when it comes to gold. If the wider public begins to understand that measured in goods, the state’s currency is no longer fit for an objective role in day to day transactions, it will be doomed. For that marks the point where fiat money begins to be discarded, and the public then ultimately decides what is its preferred money. That is where all this is going.

Forget currency resets

In recent years, suggestions that a monetary reset, centred on the dollar, is planned by the monetary authorities have been made by a number of observers. Central bank research into blockchain solutions have added to this speculation, but a recent paper by the IMF shows there is no consensus in central banks as to how and for what purpose they would use digital currencies — the central banking version of cryptocurrencies.[i]

In any event, it is likely to take too long for a central bank digital currency to be implemented, given the speed with which monetary events are now unfolding. Empirical evidence suggests that once initiated, a fiat currency collapse happens in a matter of months. Today, the Fed has tightly bonded the future of financial asset values to the dollar — one goes and they both go. The credibility behind financial asset values is already stretched to the limit, and the inevitable collapse, taking fiat money with it, is likely to be sudden.

As a side note, the last time a collapse in financial assets took the currency down in similar circumstances was exactly three hundred years ago — in 1720 when John Law’s Mississippi bubble failed. Interestingly, Richard Cantillon made his second fortune by shorting Law’s currency, the livre, and not his shares. His first fortune was made acting as a banker lending money to wealthy speculators taking in Mississippi shares as collateral, which he then promptly sold, pocketing the proceeds.

An attempt at a currency reset, with or without blockchains, can only be contemplated after the public has begun to abandon existing currencies. But the speed with which events unfurl when fiat currencies die precludes advance planning of currency replacements. Any attempt to produce a new fiat money after the existing one has failed will also fail — rapidly. The idea that the state can take control of the valuation of a new currency in a fiat reset in order to make it durable is the ultimate conceit of macroeconomics, the denial of personal freedom to make choices in favour of the management of the aggregate.

One of the specious arguments that arises time and again is that inflation reduces the true burden of debt. This is true for existing debt, but its advocates as a remedy for government indebtedness fail to understand that it also increases the cost of the government’s future debt. And while it similarly reduces the burden on private sector debtors, by destroying savings inflation leads to capital starvation and hampers any recovery.

It is possible, and desirable, that the ills of fiat currencies will be properly addressed. But that will require an abandonment of inflationism, and a commitment to balanced budgets. It requires governments to rein in their spending, reducing their role in the economies they oversee. Statist interventions, both regulatory and mandated by law have to be axed, and full responsibility for their actions handed back to the people. And only then, sound money, preventing governments from reverting to their inflationary ways, can be successfully introduced.

Assuming all this is possible, the only sound money is one with a track record and where governments have no control over it as a medium of exchange. In other words, metallic money. They will have no alternative to turning their currencies into substitutes fully convertible into gold, with silver in a subsidiary coinage role. Coins in both metals must be freely available on demand from all banks at the fixed rate of exchange for gold, and for silver equating to its monetary value.[ii] The circulation of gold and silver coins ensures the public fully understands their monetary role, thereby deterring future governments from inflationary policies. Bank credit must also be backed by gold, and not expanded by banks out of thin air.

But the pervasive and mistaken beliefs in macroeconomics appear to be an unsurmountable impediment to an orderly change towards sound money. Imposing their fervent denial of economic reality, macroeconomists are in charge of both economic and monetary policy in America, Europe and Japan ­— and by extension those of almost all other nations. It is not even certain that a currency collapse will dislodge them from their position of power, prolonging the chaos that will ensue.

Talk of a monetary reset only makes any sense if those doing the resetting understand what they are doing. And one thing will become immediately clear: the Americans, who stand to lose power over global affairs, will be the most reluctant of all nations to accept that the days of its hegemonic currency are numbered and that a return to a credible gold standard is the only solution.

Transition pains on Comex

Only through knowledge of why fiat currencies’ days are numbered can one understand what is happening to the gold price. For now, those who do not appreciate the fallacies behind macroeconomics and think of gold as an investment see gold’s move from December 2015 as a bull market which sooner or later will probably come to an end — perhaps when interest rates or bond yields rise. But those who see gold as sound money and no one else’s counterparty risk will understand that a rising price for gold should be regarded as part and parcel of a fall in the purchasing power of their fiat currency. In fact, it is a change of purchasing power for both. As fiat money loses purchasing power, gold gains it disproportionately because of its relative scarcity, while the collapse in fiat money progresses.

In the increasingly likely event that fiat currencies will lose all function as money, measured in them the gold price will trend to infinity. It is now difficult to see how the dollar can avoid this outcome, or something close to it. That being the case, in this context a price move for gold above $2000 per ounce is an insignificant event, except for those trapped with short positions, which brings us to the chaos on the Comex futures market. Figure 2 shows the position in US gold futures markets on 28 July (the last Commitment of Traders information available) with the spread positions removed.

Screen Shot 2020 08 06 at 11.27.18 AM

The swaps are bullion bank trading desks, which typically take positions across more than one derivative market, notably London forwards settling unallocated accounts. Together with the Producers and Merchants category, they almost always run net short positions on Comex. Producers, miners and their agents acting for them, hedge against falls in the gold price and make up the bulk of the short positions in their category. Merchants, typically jewellers and buyers for industrial and other purposes, hedge against price rises by holding long contracts.

The concept of futures markets did not originally include banks in the non-speculative category, because futures markets were a means for farmers to unburden themselves from price risk, due to seasonal factors, to speculators willing to take the risk upon themselves. However, banks managed to persuade the CME to be categorised as non-speculators, on the basis they often acted as agents for producers in non-agricultural contracts.  And in gold, which is what concerns us, they also ran positions in London which they wished to hedge on Comex. But as has been seen in Figure 2, the bullion banks now account for 70% of the shorts, when in the past they would typically account for significantly less. And as we show later in this article, they have no physical gold in London to hedge. The result is their gross short position of 262,796 contracts is now an uncovered commitment of $53bn spread between 27 traders. Figure 3 puts this in an historical context over the last ten years.

Screen Shot 2020 08 06 at 11.29.10 AM

Bullion banks’ shorts net of longs (the blue line) are at record levels, and gross shorts are almost at record highs, only exceeded at the beginning of the year when open interest had risen to an unprecedented level of 799,541 contracts on 15 January.

On the speculator side, the dominant category is nearly always Managed Money, which is predominantly hedge fund traders. They are rarely interested in taking delivery and will close or roll their positions. They are nearly always biased to the buy-side, and over the long term have averaged a net long position of about 112,000 contracts, which we can call the neutral position. But currently, they are an unusual minority 42% of the speculator longs and are only moderately positioned above their neutral net long average.

Far from being the masters of the investment universe, hedge funds have proved to be an easy target for the bullion banks, regularly spooking them out of their long positions. And by acting in the fashion of committed macroeconomists, hedge funds have used the current strength in the gold price to take profits, reducing net longs from the previous week’s COT report by 21,362 contracts. They seem unaware of or disinterested in a bigger picture. Furthermore, at 42,758, the level of their short contracts is above average, which could contribute to the bear squeeze in the coming weeks as they realise their mistake.

The Other Reportable category is for traders that do not fit into the other three categories described above. The longs in this category are close to a previous record level, which was on 24 March at 158,963 contracts. Unusually that was recorded two business days after the market turned higher following the price collapse in early March from $1700 to $1455. We can therefore count the Other Reportable category as smart money, at least in the current climate, less likely to be shaken out of their positions by swap dealers trying to trigger stops.

We can only conclude that swap dealers have not only ended up nearly record short, but the liquidity on Comex provided by hedge funds, which normally enables them to close their shorts, is restricted. Furthermore, mark-to-market losses come at a time when their banks’ wider operations are cutting back on risk exposure to financial commitments where they can. But these near-record losses are likely to increase significantly as central bank money-printing accelerates in an attempt to prevent an economic slump and to maintain financial asset prices. If something else does not break before, a full-scale banking crisis could evolve from the paper gold market.

The authorities can be expected to do everything to avoid a failure on Comex, because the damage to the wider market would be extremely serious. Instead, banking members of the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) would probably be expected to bid up the gold price in the forward market in an attempt to square their books and for banks to swallow the losses. That cannot happen as will be explained in the next section.

In short, over the coming weeks, we can expect a transition phase as the crisis refocuses on London’s forward settlement market, which is the casino hidden from view.

London’s hidden liabilities

Trading in London for forward settlement is a far larger market than Comex. According to the Bank for International Settlements, at the end of 2019, the notional amount of over the counter (OTC) gold forwards and swaps outstanding stood at $512bn[iii], which compares with Comex open interest of $120bn on the same day, noting that open interest at 786,166 futures contracts at that time was an elevated level.

The London Bullion Market Association makes great play of its liquidity, in its last press release claiming total physical backing for its forward market was 8,424 tonnes in April.[iv] But of that total, 5,464 tonnes are gold vaulted at the Bank of England, of which perhaps 95% is earmarked for central banks and foreign exchequers. We have discovered from the SPDR Gold Trust’s quarterly filing with the SEC (the GLD ETF) that 45.91 tonnes of its gold was held at the Bank of England on 27 April.[v] The fact that GLD’s custodian, HSBC, was forced to use the Bank of England as a sub-custodian suggests a serious lack of available bullion in LBMA member vaults. To explore this issue, Table 1 below shows the notional bullion position in London, confirming the lack of free float.

Screen Shot 2020 08 06 at 11.30.58 AM

While admittedly simplistic, these figures show that there is no liquidity in London. According to the World Gold Council, total ETF physical holdings at end-April were 3,364 tonnes, of which, according to Paul Mylchreest’s Hardman report[vi], over 70% is vaulted in London, or 2,390 tonnes in Table 1.[vii] To this figure must be added gold privately vaulted by sovereign wealth funds, institutions, family offices and agglomerating businesses on behalf of retail customers. These bullion stocks are held with the vaulting companies (Brinks, G4S, Loomis and Malca-Amit), and are likely to amount to a further 400-500 tonnes.[viii]

Since April, ETF holdings have increased by a further 387 tonnes, of which we will again assume over 70%, 275 tonnes, is stored in London (24 July – source WGC). While there are some guesses concerning underlying changes in these figures since end-April, they could easily result in a negative figure, as Table 1 suggests. Furthermore, if ETF and private demand for bullion escalate further a crisis in London is bound to emerge.

It is here that the Bank of England might have intervened by leaning on its central bank clients to lease some of their earmarked gold – vide the 45.91 tonnes reported to be held for the GLD ETF in April. But there is a further problem: the notional lease rate has been negative since March, which means that a central bank leasing at the market rate has to pay the lessee for the privilege. This suggests that leasing can only occur if market rates are ignored and a fee is paid instead.

It is important to note that under a lease agreement, ownership remains with the lessor. Gold leased through the agency of the Bank of England is unlikely to leave the Bank’s vaults, merely credited through book-entries to lessees. Therefore, for the lessor there is no counterparty risk because if the lessee defaults, the Bank of England merely reallocates the bullion back to the lessor. But in a wider bullion crisis, the double counting of bullion “ownership” through leasing will be exposed, the liabilities falling entirely on the bullion banks. Holders of the GLD ETF should seek confirmation that none of its gold in the Bank’s vaults is so leased.

The alternative to central banks providing liquidity is unthinkable: that bullion banks obtain their liquidity by illegally using bullion held in their custody. Unfortunately, suspicions are compounded by the LBMA’s secrecy over market operations, only releasing selected information when it is no longer relevant. The LBMA’s press releases are also misleading; headlining total gold vaulted in London creates the impression of physical liquidity, which is patently untrue.

For their wealthier customers, bullion banks offer gold accounts in two forms: allocated and unallocated. They are discouraged from opening an allocated account, through expensive fees, notionally covering the vaulting and insurance of physical metal and administrative costs. The real reason is that banks prefer their customers to open unallocated accounts, encouraging them with minimal fees, because these can be fractionally reserved if they are reserved at all. In other words, a bullion bank can hold enough just enough gold to cover the random demands for withdrawals. But as Table 1 above demonstrates, not even that physical liquidity now exists.

While physical settlement involving allocated gold accounts obviously does occur, it is unallocated accounts settling through the AURUM electronic settlement system which accounts for almost all day to day London trade settlements. AURUM is the means of settlement between members of the LBMA through the London Precious Metal Clearing Limited. Transactions for settlement in unallocated form are funnelled through one of the five members who net them down into a single settlement through AURUM. The five members of LPMCL (JPMorgan, UBS, HSBC, ICBC Standard Bank and Scotiabank) all have unallocated accounts with each other, and the settlements determined by AURUM are for currency on one side and unallocated bullion on the other.[ix]

Therefore, the massive quantities of gold being settled are divorced from physical settlement, and amount to nearly all the BIS derivative estimate quoted above of $512bn in positions outstanding at the end of last year. But depositors with unallocated gold accounts undoubtedly believe they have exposure to the gold price, otherwise they would insist at the least on their accounts being allocated with their bullion bank acting as custodian. As the current crisis in paper markets evolves, loss of faith in the ability of bullion banks to settle unallocated accounts in gold will risk generating a run on these accounts and a rush to secure physical gold before prices rise further.

While the authorities in America will do everything to avoid a gold and silver crisis on Comex, any thought that it can be buried behind closed doors in London is fanciful. The same bullion banks trade both markets. A crisis in the bullion banks threatens to leave at the last count about $500bn of unallocated gold accounts in London plus a further 262,796 Comex contracts ($53bn at $2,030 – see Figure 2 above) swinging in the wind. The expansion of paper gold since the early 1980s which has put a lid on the gold price is coming to its end, and the removal of this obstacle will only serve to push the price significantly higher.

Conclusion

We appear to be witnessing the early stages of a breakdown in the paper gold markets on Comex and in London, brought forward by central banks committed to accelerating their inflationary policies in an act of macroeconomic desperation to save their government finances and their economies. The method employed is a dead ringer for an earlier experiment in France exactly three hundred years ago when John Law’s Mississippi bubble imploded, destroying his currency, the livre.

If you bind the fate of financial assets to that of your fiat currency, as John Law did, and which is now the policy of the Federal Reserve, when the bubble pops the currency goes pop as well. This outcome is so obvious that the smart money is now getting out of fiat and into physical gold and silver, as witnessed through deliveries on Comex active contract expiries and the disappearance of all physical liquidity in London.

This being the case, a gathering stampede out of paper currencies and derivative contracts into physical bullion has just started. Unless it is somehow stopped, it will destroy paper markets and with them the banks that have benefitted from them over the last forty years. The acceleration in the destruction of fiat money will gather pace in the next few months, and anyone who spouts macroeconomic nonsense instead of acting in the face of these developments will end up with nothing.

end


iii) Other physical stories:

Why we must own gold now:

(Von Greyerz)

Von Greyerz: The Nightmare Scenario For The World

Authored by Egon von Greyerz via GoldSwitzerland.com,

“Gold has no role in portfolio of wealthy clients” said the chief investment officer of Goldman Sachs’ private wealth management in the week that gold in US dollars went up by over $100 and made a new high of $1,984.

Many found this statement puzzling as another Goldman department previously has told clients not to sell anything gold.

The CIO went on to say: “Our view is that gold is only appropriate if you have a very strong view that the US dollar is going to be rebased. We don’t have that view.”

THE IMPLODING DOLLAR

So here we have a dollar that has lost 85% against gold in this century and 40% since 2018. How can the CIO of the mighty GS say that the dollar is not being rebased. History certainly tells us that she is not telling the truth. Or does she believe that the dollar won’t go down in coming years. As CIO she can clearly see what everyone is seeing namely that the prospects for the dollar are doomed with what is happening in the US economy causing surging deficits and unlimited money printing.

The truth clearly lies elsewhere. No asset manager is interested in protecting their clients’ assets by investing in the ultimate form of wealth preservation which of course is physical gold. The reason is very simple. Goldman’s private wealth management like all other asset managers are not interested in holding physical gold for their clients for the simple reason that the bank can’t earn sufficient revenue on just holding client gold. Instead they want to put expensive proprietary products and their own managed funds into client portfolios and also buy and sell shares regularly to churn commissions.

No bank, managing client portfolios, tells their clients that in the last 20 years gold has outperformed all major asset classes including stocks. The Dow for example has lost 70% against gold since 1999 (excluding dividends).

Instead asset managers stick to their conventional portfolios of stocks, bonds and some alternative assets. The Dow – Gold ratio is now 13 on its way to at least 1 to 1 as in 1980 and probably 0.5 to 1 as I discussed in last week’s article.

100 TRILLION GOLD IN WEIMAR REPUBLIC

What 0.5 to 1 Dow-Gold ratio means in price is impossible to say today. It could be $20,000 gold and 10,000 Dow. It could also be $50,000 gold and 25,000 Dow. And if hyperinflation takes hold, which I think is very likely, we could see $100 billion gold. At that point I would expect the ratio to collapse in line with most stocks and be substantially below 0.5 to 1. Gold at $100 billion might sound sensational but remember that the world has seen a lot higher gold in fiat money.

In the Weimar Republic in 1923 gold reached Marks 100 trillion.

But measuring the gold price in worthless paper money obviously serves no purpose. 100 trillion marks might sound like a lot of money. Well, it is if you have to pay it in actual paper money. But the problem is that paper money at that point has lost its useful function. Today paper money is gradually being abolished. In Sweden for example, no one carries or pays with paper money. Even for small amounts like a loaf of bread, a credit card is used.

AS PAPER MONEY DIES

Abolishing paper money has been a planned process by governments and central banks. Firstly it makes bank runs impossible. The banks will simply just turn off the ATMs. They can obviously also stop electronic transfers. The most important aspect of electronic money is the Big Brother is Watching Syndrome. Now the state has total electronic control of the citizens money not just from a tax point of view but the state can decide to block individual accounts or to charge fines or taxes without the permission of the account holder.

As regards hyperinflation, it is only a matter of time before inflation picks up as the frantic printing accelerates further in line with the collapsing economy. The current explosion of the Fed balance sheet combined with surging government debt will increase money supply exponentially. This will also lead to the dollar decline accelerating.

DOLLAR FALL AND MONEY SUPPLY

The dollar index peaked at 103 in March this year and has since then fallen 10% to 93 today. As the dollar continues to decline, US inflation will pick up. So far the official US inflation rate is just above zero. Anyone buying food or paying insurance for example knows that this is not a true figure. But the real reason why inflation is low in spite of the major increase in money supply is the low velocity of money.

All the money printed is not reaching the consumer but instead staying with banks and other major institutions to shore up their balance sheets. Very little reaches the real economy.

The graph below shows the rise in the US Money Zero Maturity stock – MZM. This is the broadest measure of liquid money. It was $4.3 trillion in 2000 and is now $21 trillion. Only since March 2020 it has increased by a massive $4 trillion.

If we then look at the velocity of MZM we see how it reached 3.5 in 1981 when inflation was high and interest rates reached 20%. Today the velocity has collapsed to an all time low of 0.9. So what we are seeing is that the money printed is not spent but used to prevent the financial system from collapsing.

AS THE DOLLAR FALLS VELOCITY OF MONEY WILL PICK UP

As the dollar falls and velocity of money increases, we will see inflation increasing rapidly. Higher inflation will lead to higher interest rates. I experienced this in the UK in the 1970s when inflation was in the mid to high teens for many years. My first mortgage was at 21% in 1974.

Central banks are today managing to artificially suppress interest rates and in the short term defy the laws of supply and demand. High demand for credit should in a free market lead to high interest rates and thus taper demand for credit. But in a world controlled and manipulated by central banks, the laws of nature are temporarily set aside. This leads to false markets and false prices.

The likely course of events in the next few years are as follows:

THE NIGHTMARE SCENARIO

  • Accelerating deficits and debts
  • Falling dollar and other currencies
  • Unlimited money printing to save banks, and failing financial system
  • More printing to save failing companies
  • Ever higher subsidies for furloughed and unemployed
  • Universal Basic Income (UBI) introduced in most Western nations
  • UBI means that everyone is paid a basic wage whether they work or not
  • This will lead to ever fewer people working
  • Higher unemployment means more printing
  • More printing leads to more currency debasement
  • This leads to higher velocity of money higher inflation
  • Central banks lose control of rates as long end of bond market sells off
  • High long rates push short rates up
  • Rates reach 5% then quickly 10% and on to 15-20% at least
  • At 10% rates interest cost on global debt of $275 trillion would be $27t
  • $27t is 34% of global GDP – totally unsustainable
  • So much more money printing required
  • Bad debts surge leading to defaults, sovereign, corporate and private
  • Unemployment escalates leading to more UBI and more money printing
  • Banks start falling including the $1.5 to $2 quadrillion derivatives market
  • Money printing reaches $ quadrillions leading to hyperinflation
  • The financial system collapses together with major parts of industry and society
  • Social unrest, civil wars, cyber wars and major conflict will be rampant
  • Political systems fail as governments lose control leading to anarchy

THE WORLD WAKES UP TO THE FACT THAT IT IS BANKRUPT

Obviously governments and central banks will desperately try to introduce resets, new digital currencies, do a bit of hocus pocus with debt to pretend it has disappeared. The US might even revalue its alleged stock of 8,000 tonnes of gold. But their bluff will be called. The effects of any measure governments take will only be temporary as the world realises that it really is bankrupt.

I sincerely hope that all the above is really a nightmare in the form of a dream and will never take place. Because if it does, the world is back to the Dark Ages or the Dark Years are here as I wrote about in 2009 and revisited in 2018.

THE WORLD GOES BACKWARD 100 YEARS

If the world retraces a century of evolution or more, it is clearly in for at least 50 years of very hard times. But except for the initial shock and readjustment, life will go on for most people but at a different level. Obviously living standards will decline substantially. So will security.

MANY OF LIFE’S TREASURES ARE FREE

The positive aspect is that moral and ethical values will return with family and friends becoming the kernel of society again. And many of the best and free things in life will still be there such as nature, books, music, good conversation, close friendships etc. With the lack of many of the superficial material values, we will appreciate the real value of the new simple life even though it will seem a lot harder initially.

What I have outlined above is not a forecast but a potential scenario which I sincerely hope won’t come to pass but the risk is certainly there.

GOLD WILL ASSUME ITS CRISIS ROLE

Gold and silver are now in the acceleration phase of a secular bull market. As always, there will be corrections on the way to much higher levels.

In a period of such severe crisis which I outline above, gold will obviously assume the role it always has, namely as money and the only money which will maintain its purchasing power and act as insurance and wealth preservation. But remember, it must be physical and stored outside the banking system in a very safe place and jurisdiction.

At that point it will be meaningless to measure gold in worthless dollars or euros. Instead, think of gold in ounces or grammes and purchasing power terms.

end

 

https://www.jsmineset.com/2020/08/07/the-relics-of-the-barbarians/

 

The Relics of The Barbarians

Posted August 7th, 2020 at 9:15 AM (CST) by J. Johnson & filed under General Editorial.

 

Great and Wonderful Friday Morning Folks,

      The Precious Metals were doing well until 9pm est, when the calm got applied all at once, with Gold now trading at $2,065.90, down $3.50 after hitting a low of $2,055.50 with the high up at $2,089.20. Silver of course, owns the sell side with the trade down 12 cents at $28.28, after reaching down to $27.935 with the high way up at $29.915. The US Dollar is going higher in anticipation of the Unemployment and Wholesale Trade Reports with the trade valued at 93.16, up 39.2 points and close to the high at 93.215 with the low to beat down at 92.74. Of course, all this happened already, before 5am pst, the Comex open, the London close, and after the “SEC Enforcement Co-Director Steven Peikin decided to leave the agency on August 14 in hurry up fashion (2 weeks notice), … during his tenure, the agency says over $13.5 billion in disgorgement and penalties was obtained by the agency.” This stolen money of course, will never be given back to those it was stolen from in the first place. What a racket!

      In Venezuela, Gold is now trading at 20,633.18, giving the holder a 4 Bolivar gain with Silver’s price at 282.447 Bolivar, providing a gain of 0.951. Argentina’s Peso now has Gold’s price at 150,062.99 Peso’s producing a 175.43 gain with Silver’s price at 2,054.26, giving the holder an additional 8.89 A-Peso gain. Over in Turkey, Gold’s price now sits at 14,827.38 Lira, proving a reduction of 140.77 with Silver losing 0.736 of a T-Lira with the last trade at 203.306.

      August Silver’s Delivery Demands now has a posting of 155 fully paid for contracts waiting for receipts and with a Volume of 8 up on the board with a trading range between $29.53 and $28.29 with the last swap at $28.325, down by 6.2 cents so far today. This proves a reduction of 8 in count after yesterday’s trades that had a total Volume of 76 hitting the board in between $28.85 and $27.535 with the settled price calculated at $28.387. The Overall Open Interest, one of our “tells”, continues to prove the power of the climb, as another 2,457 more short contracts had to be added or the prices would have increased even more than they did with the total count now at 208,019 Overnighters going against the physical Resolutes.

      August Gold’s Delivery Demands now shows a post of 5,122 fully paid for contracts and with a Volume of 216 already up on the board with an early morning trading range between $2,055 and $2,040.10 with the last swap at $2,045.90, down $5.60 so far today. This proves that 1,743 contracts got papers, somewhere between the Comex and London, during yesterday’s trades that had a Volume of 294 inside a trading range between $2,063 and $2,040 with the last buy at $2,058.30. Gold’s Overall Open Interest, which is all the paper that can legally be excused into the markets, shows a reduction of 1,375 pieces of paper leaving 553,673 short contracts going against the physicals.

      Europe is also suffering from the sudden shock of a bio weapon release with some European funds posting a stunning $835 Billion trading loss within the first half of 2020. Over here, we see Freddie Mac warning us that as much as a 40% drop in Multi-family loan originations is possible in 2020 compared with 2019. None of this points to a recovery, it seems to be suggesting a continuation of trend.

      First and Foremost; this is not trading advice! It is a simple observation, in time value inflation, which in turn, either points to a real fear out there, or that time value is about to be reduced hard and fast. I am using last nights numbers for this inflated example;

September Silver closed at $28.40 up $1.51

September Comex Silver Call Options; $26 Calls closed at $3.121

                                                               $27 Calls closed at $2.501

                                                               $28 Calls closed at $1.990

      Let’s do some math; The $26 Calls are “In The Money” $2.40 (Strike Price – Closing Price). The difference between the “In The Money” (ITM) value and the “Closing Price” is what is called “Time Value” (TV), that equals 72.1 cents with every penny in Silver worth $50, which equals $3,605 in this example and for the next 19 days before these options expire.

$27 Calls closed at $2.501; $2.501 – $1.40 (ITM) = $1.101 or $5,505 of Time Value (and for the next 20 days)

$28 Calls closed at $1.990; $1.99 – 40 cents(ITM) = $1.59 or $7,950 of Time Value (and for the next 20 days)

      These examples are not the only ones, in fact, this increased Time Value insanity goes way out across all months offered. Also, of note the deeper the Calls are In The Money, the less Time Value there is. These Option sellers offer the Calls to the buyers at much higher prices, this is how they keep from “melting up” the losses, as the prices rise. If the Comex price rises $1, the sellers of the Calls, may only lose 80 cents, as time goes by, and the prices rise, eventually the Calls become pure In The Money Valued as the Time Value slowly erodes to zero.

       Buying cheap options used to be a thing, and now, no more. An example of a formerly cheap option is a December Silver $50 Call that was purchased for 4.5 cents ($225 for almost a years’ time) which was bought towards the first of the year before that dip to $11. That option closed at 65 cents yesterday and it’s $21.60 away from the Comex price and 110 days away from expiring. Of note, we have a new option strike price I haven’t seen since 2011, a December Silver $70 Call, which closed at 20.2 cents, yes that means $1,010 US$. This possibly means someone believes the price will exceed the 1980 price like Gold did in 2011, could this be another “tell”? In short, everything has changed, even the margins were raised a few weeks ago, and I think it may be possible to see a 100% margin at the Comex. That is, if things get real crazy. The reasons will only be found out in time, but from now on, it appears one will have to pay up in order to get in any trade regarding Silver and by natural extension, the money of countries and kings; Gold.

     Let the insanity show that the changes in attitudes, towards the claimed relics of the barbarians, are now being sought by those who consider themselves more civilized (debt holders). Have a great weekend, keep your metals close, have a song in the heart, and as always ….

Stay Long!

Jeremiah Johnson

JeremiahJohnson@cableone.net

More J.Johnson content is available with purchase of a JSMineset subscription

end

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early FRIDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 6.9586/ GETTING VERY DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.9598   /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 32.43 POINTS OR 0.96%

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 398.96 POINTS OR 1.60%

 

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 88.21 POINTS OR 0.39%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL MIXED/

 

 

 

USA dollar index UP TO 93.18/Euro FALLS TO 1.1812

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. +.01/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 105.65/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 41.38 and Brent: 44.59

3f Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE DOWN/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO -.52%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 0.94% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.28%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.46: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 1.01

3k Gold at $2054.50 silver at: 28.21   7 am est)

 

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 20/100 in roubles/dollar) 73.59

3m oil into the 41 dollar handle for WTI and 44 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 105.68 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9142 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0804 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to 0.52%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.05% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 1.19%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 7.1889. DEADLY TO THE COUNTRY.

Futures Slide After Trump Opens A “Most Unwelcome Can Of Worms” With TikTok, WeChat Executive Order

World stocks ended a four day rally overnight that pushed the MSCI World index to green for the year, after U.S. President Trump cranked up simmering tensions with China after late on Thursday has signed orders to ban Americans from transactions involving China’s ByteDance (TikTok’s parent) and WeChat (owned by Tencent), taking effect in 45 days. Furthermore, Trump’s Working Group on Financial Markets recommended that Chinese companies currently listed on US exchanges should be delisted if they do not become compliant with US accounting standards.

Tencent Holdings slumped 5% in Hong Kong after plunging as much as the 10% limit earlier.

 

Trump’s decision to take aim at WeChat, the world’s most-used messaging app, has the potential to upend the international businesses of companies from Apple Inc. to Walmart Inc.

“The executive orders leveled on TikTok and the scrutiny over WeChat has opened up a most unwelcome can of worms,” said Stephen Innes, chief global markets strategist at AxiCorp. This could “be more of a signal than anything else, especially front-running the China trade talks” expected later this month, he said.

S&P futures pared some of their Thursday gains after the ES continued to print new post-COVID highs in late US trade on Thursday; the Emini hit a high of just shy of 3350, ahead of its ATH just beneath 3400.

 

MSCI’s index of world stocks fell 0.2% on Friday after up four consecutive days of gains. It was less than 3% away from a late February peak, and had just turned green on the year on Thursday.  European stocks opened lower, with major indexes down between 0.2% to 0.4% in early trading, although they largely brushed off Asia’s tech-led slump. The Eurostoxx 600 is little changed as gains in telecoms and media are offset by weaker autos and oil & gas names. FTSE MIB and IBEX underperform.

Chinese stocks led losers in Asia and the yuan slumped after Trump issued the executive orders, noting that his admin was stepping up efforts to purge “untrusted” Chinese apps from U.S. digital networks and called TikTok and WeChat “significant threats.” “The U.S. pressure on China’s tech sector appears likely to continue in the presidential elections, injecting volatility in the sector and opening the door to escalatory retaliation,” UBS strategists said.

In addition to the TikTok crackdown, Trump confirmed he has signed proclamation re-imposing aluminium tariffs on Canada, to which Canada has said it would retaliate. However, as NewsSquawk notes, the measures appear more symbolic/political for now than part of a broader economic concern.

Meanwhile, concerns remain that lawmakers won’t be able to resolve differences over a new U.S. relief package. The White House and congressional Democrats are up against a self-imposed Friday deadline to strike a deal. Markets will also be closely watching details from the monthly U.S. jobs report today (full preview here), which is expected to show a steep slowdown in hiring during July.

 

In rates, there is a modest bull-flattening bias in Treasuries, 2s unch. At 11.5bps, 10s -2bps at 52bps and 30s -3bps at 117bps; the strength was made in futures overnight amid the escalating Sino-US tensions.

In FX, the dollar strengthened, while gold retreated for the first time in six days. The subdued risk tone has seen the Dollar Index reclaim the 93 handle after the late risk rally on Thursday kept it away, seeing cyclical currencies and EMFX on the defensive. Turkey’s lira slumped to a record low against the dollar even after the central bank spent billions to to prop it up, although a late burst pushed the battered currency to unchanged.

 

Sterling fell after a post-BOE advance on Thursday, as traders take stock of officials distancing themselves from negative rates and an optimistic view of the U.K’s economic recovery. The Australian currency weakened after dovish remarks from the Reserve Bank and the escalation of the U.S.-China row weighed on the currency. The New Zealand dollar followed suit, seeing the biggest losses in the G-10. The Norwegian krone follow oil and gold prices lower, although a mid-week spike in the commodities helped make the currency see the biggest weekly gains among its peers against the greenback.

In commodities, crude futures have been moving slightly lower through Europe, although by no means significant, with oil demand more sheltered from the US-China tech battle. Gold and silver have faded some of their record gains, with silver dropping modestly after rising just shy of $30 late on Thursday.

Economic data include the monthly employment report for July. Dish and Brookfield Renewable Partners are due to report earnings.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.5% to 3,327.50
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.1% to 362.08
  • MXAP down 0.6% to 168.82
  • MXAPJ down 0.9% to 563.20
  • Nikkei down 0.4% to 22,329.94
  • Topix down 0.2% to 1,546.74
  • Hang Seng Index down 1.6% to 24,531.62
  • Shanghai Composite down 1% to 3,354.04
  • Sensex down 0.05% to 38,007.48
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.6% to 6,004.84
  • Kospi up 0.4% to 2,351.67
  • German 10Y yield fell 0.6 bps to -0.537%
  • Euro down 0.4% to $1.1829
  • Brent Futures down 0.4% to $44.89/bbl
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 4.1 bps to 0.806%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 0.3 bps to 0.276%
  • Brent futures down 0.8% to $44.74/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.1% to $2,060.74
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.3% to 93.10

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • President Donald Trump signed a pair of executive orders prohibiting U.S. residents from doing business with the Chinese- owned TikTok and WeChat apps beginning 45 days from now, citing the national security risk of leaving Americans’ personal data exposed
  • The Trump administration’s move to ban U.S. residents from doing business with Tencent Holdings Ltd.’s WeChat app erased $30 billion from the Internet giant’s market value and sent the yuan to its biggest slump in two weeks
  • Hopes for a speedy economic rebound in large parts of Europe are holding ground as manufacturing starts to recover from pandemic lows. Industrial output in Germany rose at a faster-than-expected pace of 8.9% in June, and factory demand is also increasing. With France and Spain experiencing similar trends, signs are mounting that Europe’s initial bounce-back from the worst recession in living memory may be faster than anticipated
  • OPEC’s second biggest producer Iraq made its strongest commitment yet to implement deep cuts in crude production after the country’s oil minister and his Saudi counterpart held a phone call Thursday. The country failed to meet its production-cut target in May and June

Asian equity markets failed to sustain the positive handover from Wall St where all major indices notched gains as tech resumed its outperformance and Apple continued to print fresh record highs to edge closer towards the USD 2tln market cap status, while sentiment stateside was also underpinned by lower jobless claims data and with COVID-sensitive sectors such as airlines, hotels and casinos supported in late trade after the US State Department lifted advisory against all international travel and returned to its previous system of country specific levels of travel advice. Nonetheless, the momentum faded in Asia with the region cautious heading into the latest Chinese trade data which later proved to be mostly better than expected and with US-China tensions stoked after US President Trump signed executive orders to ban transactions with TikTok’s parent ByteDance, as well as Tencent-owned WeChat in 45 days. ASX 200 (-0.6%) and Nikkei 225 (-0.4%) were both negative in which Australia’s mining names gave back some of their recent gains and as Japan digested earnings, with sentiment also dampened by concerns of a weaker consumer as although Household Spending in June rose by its fastest pace since data was made available in 2000, the actual decline in household spending for the April-June quarter of 9.8% Y/Y was the steepest contraction on record. Hang Seng (-1.8%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.9%) conformed to the downbeat tone due to the US recent actions against TikTok and WeChat which saw Tencent shares slump over 7%, while US President’s Working Group on Financial Markets earlier recommended Chinese companies currently listed on US exchanges to be compliant with US accounting standards or be delisted. Finally, 10yr JGBs were relatively flat with minimal gains seen amid the risk averse tone and the BoJ present in the market for JPY 940bln of JGBs focused on 1yr-3yr and 5yr-10yr maturities.

Top Asian News

  • Japan Looks to Scrap New Libor-Tied Lending Six Months Early
  • China Official Reserves Rise to Highest Since July 2016

European stocks are modestly softer [Euro Stoxx 50 -0.3%] as the downbeat APAC performance seeps into the region after China lodged stern opposition to the US’ executive order on China’s TikTok and WeChat, alongside the State’s drone sale to Taiwan. Broader sectors are mixed with underperformance seen in the energy sector amid losses in the complex, whilst Telecoms remain firm as Deutsche Telekom (+2.8%) holds onto gains amid stellar numbers from T-Mobile (+5.5% pre-mkt) of which Deutsche Telekom owns 43.5%. The sectoral breakdown adds little meat to the bones and provides no clear risk bias, whilst the Travel & Leisure sector remain pressured amid fears of further additions to quarantine lists prompting travel cancellations. In terms of individual movers: BP (-2.6%) trades lower as sources stated that it is poised to sell a large chunk of its oil and gas assets even if crude prices rise; oil giants usually hold assets in the longer-term even if prices fall – with a view of bringing marginal production online contingent on improving market conditions. Rolls-Royce (-3.4%) is hit on the back of source reports that activist investor ValueAct has reportedly sold its entire 10.9% stake in the group since 2017. Finally, Hikma Pharmaceuticals (+9%) extended on gains after raising its FY20 generic revenue guidance alongside its operating margin, whilst the CEO later stated that the group entered a manufacturing deal for Gilead’s remdesivir treatment, potentially providing added impetus.

Top European News

  • Standard Life Loses Top Spot Among U.K. Asset Managers
  • SAS Makes Last-Ditch Bid to Secure Backing for Rescue Plan
  • TP ICAP Says July Trading Activity ‘Materially Lower’ Than 2019

In FX, the Dollar continues to benefit from corrective and positional trade rather than any real fundamental shift in sentiment or direction, as consolidation and short covering persists pre-NFP and the showdown talks in Washington to resolve differences on the next relief bill. It’s debatable whether the monthly BLS report or fiscal deadline will be Friday’s headline-grabbing event, but for now the Buck has clawed back more lost ground against G10 peers and the index is holding between 93.227-92.759 parameters, above Thursday’s 92.495 new 2020 low.

  • NZD/EUR/CHF/CAD – The major victims of the Greenback’s ongoing recuperation, if not quite revival, as the Kiwi backs off from a test of resistance/offers into 0.6700 and the Euro fades into 1.1900 where 1.5 bn option expiries reside. Note also, the single currency has found ventures above the round number unsustainable and is now south of almost equally large expiry interest at 1.1850 (1.2 bn), with bids said to be underpinning around 1.1820-10 and a key Fib in close proximity (1.1823). Meanwhile, the Franc remains sub-0.9100 and straddling 1.0800 vs the Euro as SNB reserves data reveal a decline, and the Loonie has reversed further towards 1.3400 from recent 1.3250+ multi-month highs following the reintroduction of US tariffs on Canadian aluminium and impending like-for-like countermeasures. More immediately, the 2 NA nations go head-to-head on the jobs front with July data due simultaneously ahead of Canada’s Ivey PMIs.
  • AUD/GBP – Also down vs their US counterpart, but clinging to or near big figure/psychological levels at 0.7200 and 1.3100 respectively, as the Aussie draws some underlying support from encouraging or arguably upbeat Chinese trade data and the Pound retains an element of post-BoE strength even though MPC member Ramsden leaves the door open for more stimulus in November should the need arise. For the record, no major reaction down under to the RBA’s SOMP or comments from Deputy Governor Ellis largely underlining latest policy meeting assessments and guidance.
  • JPY – Still no big make or break for the Yen that is pivoting 105.50 after a late fixed related recoil yesterday and Japanese reserves showing a rise conducive with, but not conclusive, a degree of official intervention, albeit this time around 100 pips above the low 104.00 area.
  • EM – Simply no respite for the Lira that has crashed to fresh all time depths against the Dollar and Euro for that matter, even though the CBRT has started withdrawing liquidity provisions and instructing banks to use the overnight lending facility at 9.75% ahead of a 50% reduction in primary dealer OMO limits as from Monday. Usd/Try paring back a tad from 7.3650 or so.

In commodities, WTI and Brent front month futures drift lower in a correlated move with the equity markets as news-flow for the complex remains scarce ahead of the US jobs report. An earlier Saudi-Iraq statement did the rounds but provided no fresh substance – with the two nations reaffirming their commitment to the OPEC+ pact. WTI Sept resides around USD 41.50/bbl having had briefly dipped below the figure, whilst Brent Oct lost its 45/bbl-status after oscillating on either side of the figure in early hours. Elsewhere, spot gold is relatively uneventful and remains contained around the USD 2060/oz mark, as has been the case throughout the European morning, whilst spot silver sees more pronounced losses as price consolidate from yesterday’s outperformance.  In terms of base metals, Dalian iron ore prices retreated overnight following yesterday’s warning from the Dalian exchange around investing rationally amid the recent rally, whilst Shanghai copper saw losses as US-Sino tensions continue to ratchet.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, est. 1.48m, prior 4.8m
    • Change in Private Payrolls, est. 1.18m, prior 4.77m
    • Average Hourly Earnings MoM, est. -0.5%, prior -1.2%
    • Average Hourly Earnings YoY, est. 4.2%, prior 5.0%
    • Average Weekly Hours All Employees, est. 34.4, prior 34.5
    • Unemployment Rate, est. 10.55%, prior 11.1%
    • Labor Force Participation Rate, est. 61.8%, prior 61.5%
    • Underemployment Rate, prior 18.0%
  • 10am: Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. -2.0%, prior -2.0%; Wholesale Trade Sales MoM, prior 5.4%
  • 3pm: Consumer Credit, est. $10.0b, prior $18.3b deficit

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)FRIDAY MORNING/ THURSDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 32.43 POINTS OR 0.96%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 398.96 POINTS OR 1.60%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 88.21 POINTS OR 0.39%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .57%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.9586 /Oil UP TO 41.38 dollars per barrel for WTI and 44.59 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 6.9586 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.9598 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED/CORONAVIRUS/PANDEMIC  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 C CHINA

CHINA/TAIWAN/USA

Oh Oh This will annoy China greatly as the  USA transfers military drones to Taiwan.

(zerohedge)

US Negotiates First Ever Transfer Of Military Drones To Taiwan After Beijing Slams ‘One China’ Violations

Washington is upping the ante on China with what will be interpreted as a new direct frontal assault on the decades-old ‘One China’ official policy which has preserved the status quo in Taiwan.

Over the past days it’s been clear something big was coming, given the Chinese Foreign Ministry on Wednesday slammed a planned-for trip later this week of “the highest-level visit by a U.S. cabinet official” to Taipei in forty years, namely led by Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar.

For the first time ever, the US moving to sale high-tech military drones to Taiwan, which is sure to unleash fury from Beijing.

 

Image: General Atomics MQ-9B SeaGuardian

“The United States is negotiating the sale of at least four of its large sophisticated aerial drones to Taiwan for the first time, according to six U.S. sources familiar with the negotiations, in a deal that is likely to ratchet up tensions with China,” Reuters reports of the details.

Specifically they are SeaGuardian surveillance drones, which will vastly expand the reach far and above beyond the capabilities of Taiwan’s current drone fleet. They are said to reach up to 6,000 nautical miles, or 11,100 km.

They are being described as heavily modified versions of the deadly MQ-9 Reaper drones, capable of carrying advanced missiles and targeting technology.

It’s not yet been approved by Congress, Reuters reports, but is expected to be:

While the sale of the unmanned aerial vehicles has been tacitly authorized by the State Department, two of the people said, it is not known whether the U.S. officials have approved exporting the drones with weapons attached, one of them said.

But no doubt the headlines out of The New York Times will be enough to spark a new round of angry back-and-forth accusations between the US and China, given the already worsening state of relations, and then there’s the issue of continued military build-up and tensions in the South China Sea to boot.

end

The White House now moves to de list Chinese companies from USA stock exchanges for lack of proper accounting practices.

(zerohedge)

White House Moves To De-List Chinese Companies From American Stock Exchanges

The Trump Administration’s campaign of non-stop foreign policy agitation – from sending Alex Azar to Taiwan, to holding more military exercises in the South China Sea, to Trump threatening to ban TikTok, and imposing sanctions on firms and individuals tied to the Chinese security apparatus in Xinjiang – continues apace Thursday night.

WSJ reports that a new proposal from the Trump Administration calls for all Chinese-domiciled companies with shares listed on American stock exchanges will need to comply with American auditing rules, or de-list by 2022.

It’s not exactly a surprise. The Senate back in May passed a bill entitled the “Holding Foreign Companies Accountable” Act that called for Chinese companies to confirm to American accounting standards, or de-list. The bill was passed in the wake of the Luckin Coffee fraud.

It has been on the back-burner since.

If it were signed into law, the bill would required Chinese companies to comply with American auditing rules (they’re currently exempt) or face being delisted, which would put $1.3 trillion of US-listed Chinese firms, including behemoths like Alibaba Group and Tencent, at risk of being pushed out of American markets.

In an amusing coincidence, since President Trump is threatening to ‘cut Democrats out’ of an extension of federal unemployment enhancement money and other emergency measures as the negotiations over an extension drag on, this new “proposal” from the Trump Administration would simply bypass Congress to use the SEC and Treasury to enact new regulations that would have the same effect in practice as the pending legislation.

Which begs the question: Why hasn’t Pelosi brought the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act up for a vote already?

 

end

CHINA VS USA

Trump signs an executive order banning Tik Tok, We Chat in 45 days. China is annoyed

(zerohedge)

 

Trump Signs Executive Order Banning TikTok, WeChat In 45 Days

President Trump signed an executive order banning U.S. residents from doing any business with TikTok or the apps’ Chinese owner ByteDance 45 days from now.

Trump said the U.S. “must take aggressive action against the owners of TikTok to protect our national security”.

The EO comes as Trump has demanded the divestment of the popular video app, citing national security risks to the U.S, and threatens penalties on any U.S. resident or company that engages in any transactions with TikTok or ByteDance after the order takes effect.

“This mobile application may also be used for disinformation campaigns that benefit the Chinese Communist Party,” Trump said in the order, released Thursday by the White House and seen by Bloomberg.

The data collection through TikTok “threatens to allow the Chinese Communist Party access to Americans’ personal and proprietary information — potentially allowing China to track the locations of Federal employees and contractors, build dossiers of personal information for blackmail, and conduct corporate espionage.”

TikTok has denied accusations it is controlled by or shares data with the Chinese government.

The order released today reads: “I, Donald J Trump President of the United States of America, find that additional steps must be taken to deal with the national emergency with respect to the information and communications technology and services….Specifically, the spread in the United States of mobile applications developed and owned by companies in the People’s Republic of China continues to threaten the national security, foreign policy, and economy.

“At this time, action must be taken to address the threat posed by one mobile application in particular, Tik Tok.”

He has also banned WeChat.

The President claims the app’s data collection “threatens to allow the Chinese Communist Party access to Americas’ personal and proprietary information – potentially allowing China to track the locations of Federal employees and contractors, build dossiers of personal information for blackmail, and conduct corporate espionage.”

And now we wait for China’s response to this latest escalation, even if so far Beijing has indicated it is willing to be a pushover when it comes to Trump’s pre-election campaigning and is unwilling to aggressively pursue any retaliation.

In kneejerk reaction, Tencent shares dropped after signed an executive order “addressing the threat posed by WeChat.” The stock fell as much as 1.5% in opening minutes of Hong Kong trade. It remains up 46% YTD.

END

TikTok “Shocked” By Trump Ban, Insists Order “Undermines Trust In Rule Of Law”

Update (1900ET): As TikTok lashes out at the Trump Administration, Tencent has been conspicuously quiet.

But CNBC reported a few moments ago, citing a domestic poll, that Chinese consumers would retaliate against Apple if WeChat is banned form its app store.

No surprises there.

Meanwhile, Tencent shares are getting absolutely hammered.

* * *

Maybe its is oft-professed fondness for “deals”, but for whatever reason, it seems President Trump is determined not only to see Microsoft buy TikTok, but to claim some sort of role (or reward) for the US government in bringing about the buyout. Last night, Trump issued yet another executive order targeting both TikTok owner ByteDance and Tencent-owned WeChat, another popular Chinese social media company.

In the order, Trump essentially formalized threats made a week ago by setting a time limit for barring both companies from the US. While the recourse for WeChat is less clear, the order was worded in a way that would allow TikTok to continue operating under the auspices of Microsoft. Perhaps this had something to do with the reports about Microsoft looking into buying TikTok’s entire global business (instead of just the US, Canada, Australia and New Zealand-facing business that MSFT claimed to be interested in on Sunday night.

Stocks slumped in Asia and Europe Friday morning, and US futures are pointing to a lower open, as Beijing’s insistence that the US would not be allowed to simply “steal” TikTok in a “smash & grab” deal probably led analysts to conclude that – whatever Trump’s intentions with the EO – it would likely complicate deal talks in the near term, as Trump just made Microsoft’s job of courting the national party that much more difficult.

In its own statement published Friday morning, TikTok said it was “shocked” by Trump’s EO, which was issued “without due process” (note: it tickles us to hear Chinese companies wax poetic about the importance of “due process”.)

TikTok added that it has sought to engage in “good faith” with the US government for more than a year, and has even expressed its willingness to sell the business to a US company. The company added that it would “pursue all remedies available in order to ensure that the rule of law is not discarded and that TikTok and its users are treated fairly”.

Read the full statement:

TikTok is a community full of creativity and passion, a home that brings joy to families and meaningful careers to creators. And we are building this platform for the long term. TikTok will be here for many years to come.

We are shocked by the recent Executive Order, which was issued without any due process. For nearly a year, we have sought to engage with the US government in good faith to provide a constructive solution to the concerns that have been expressed. What we encountered instead was that the Administration paid no attention to facts, dictated terms of an agreement without going through standard legal processes, and tried to insert itself into negotiations between private businesses.

We made clear our intentions to work with the appropriate officials to devise a solution to benefit our users, creators, partners, employees, and the broader community in the United States. There has been, and continues to be, no due process or adherence to the law. The text of the decision makes it plain that there has been a reliance on unnamed “reports” with no citations, fears that the app “may be” used for misinformation campaigns with no substantiation of such fears, and concerns about the collection of data that is industry standard for thousands of mobile apps around the world. We have made clear that TikTok has never shared user data with the Chinese government, nor censored content at its request. In fact, we make our moderation guidelines and algorithm source code available in our Transparency Center, which is a level of accountability no peer company has committed to. We even expressed our willingness to pursue a full sale of the US business to an American company.

This Executive Order risks undermining global businesses’ trust in the United States’ commitment to the rule of law, which has served as a magnet for investment and spurred decades of American economic growth. And it sets a dangerous precedent for the concept of free expression and open markets. We will pursue all remedies available to us in order to ensure that the rule of law is not discarded and that our company and our users are treated fairly – if not by the Administration, then by the US courts.

We want the 100 million Americans who love our platform because it is your home for expression, entertainment, and connection to know: TikTok has never, and will never, waver in our commitment to you. We prioritize your safety, security, and the trust of our community – always. As TikTok users, creators, partners, and family, you have the right to express your opinions to your elected representatives, including the White House. You have the right to be heard.

As Trump ratchets up pressure for a deal (and further inserts himself into the deal talks, much to both companies chagrin), CNBC reminds us that Microsoft isn’t the only company reportedly “talking” to TikTok. There are at least three groups of potential investors, according to one CNBC source (we assume CNBC is referring to the VC group, Microsoft and (possibly) Facebook (though the company has vehemently denied interest in TikTok).

By adding another layer of pressure beyond what CFIUS was already applying, Trump is making these deal talks really interesting. Meanwhile, expect more whining from the teens about mean ol’ Trump trying to shut down their favorite “safe space”.

END

CHINA VS USA

The war escalates;  USA sanctions Hong kong Chief Executive Lam  ( a Beijing puppet)

(zerohedge)

US Sanctions Hong Kong Chief Executive And Beijing “Puppet” Carrie Lam

Weeks after Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said the US would strip Hong Kong of its “special status” after a controversial national security law imposed by Beijing allegedly robbed the administrative region of its legal autonomy, the White House is reportedly drawing up plans to impose sanctions on Hong Kong chief executive Carrie Lam.

Several mainland officials would also be targeted.

  • U.S. POISED TO SANCTION HONG KONG CHIEF LAM OVER CRACKDOWN
  • U.S. ALSO TARGETING CHINESE OFFICIALS OVER HONG KONG CRACKDOWN
  • *U.S. SANCTION PLANS PROVIDED BY THREE PEOPLE FAMILIAR

The White House move follows the passage of a law by Congress back in June that would target Chinese officials involved in the Hong Kong crackdown. That bill targeted banks that deal with Communist Party officials. The new sanctions being planned by the White House will also target Chinese officials from the mainland.

It’s worth noting that the payrolls-induced bump in US stock futures has been almost entirely erased…

…and the offshore yuan dropped on the news.

The sanctions will reportedly be imposed on Friday.

 

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

CORONAVIRUS UPDATE/SPAIN/

Spain’s Virus Cases Surge, Lockdown Imposed, Investors Derisk Stocks 

A second coronavirus wave is quickly emerging in Europe. Spanish officials are set to reimpose lockdowns in part of the country as virus cases surge.

A town of 32,000 people in northwestern Spain will begin lockdown Friday amid a local surge in coronavirus cases.

The senior health official in the Basque country reported 338 news cases in the region on Thursday. Authorities in the northwestern Castile and León region are quarantining Aranda de Duero after 103 new COVID-19 cases emerged there. Contact tracers have reported five active clusters.

New cases have risen steadily in Spain since a more than three-month lockdown ended on June 21, reaching 1,772 new infections reported on Wednesday. A total of more than 28,000 people in Spain have died since the pandemic began, the eighth highest total in the world. –AP News

The one-week moving average of new COVID-19 cases in Europe shows Spain is becoming the epicenter once again.

Investors are derisking Spanish stocks as cases surge. We noted this, earlier in the week, in a piece titled: “Spanish Stocks Break Support As Virus Concerns Reemerge.” 

And there goes the V-shaped economic recovery in Spain, and probably the rest of Europe.

END

 

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

RUSSIA/CHINA

A very important commentary as a follow up to yesterday’s report.  China and China have reached their breakthrough moment as both countries are ditching the USA in their bilateral trade

a very important read…

(zerohedge)

Russia-China “Dedollarization” Reaches “Breakthrough Moment” As Countries Ditch Greenback For Bilateral Trade

Late last year, data released by the PBOC and the Russian Central Bank shone a light on a disturbing – at least, for the US – trend: As the Trump Administration ratcheted up sanctions pressure on Russia and China, both countries and their central banks have substantially “diversified” their foreign-currency reserves, dumping dollars and buying up gold and each other’s currencies.

Back in September, we wrote about the PBOC and RCB building their reserves of gold bullion to levels not seen in years. The Russian Central Bank became one of the world’s largest buyers of bullion last year (at least among the world’s central banks). At the time, we also introduced this chart.

We’ve been writing about the impending demise of the greenback for years now, and of course we’re not alone. Some well-regarded economists have theorized that the fall of the greenback could be a good thing for humanity – it could open the door to a multi-currency basket, or better yet, a global current (bitcoin perhaps?) – by allowing us to transition to a global monetary system with with less endemic instability.

Though, to be sure, the greenback is hardly the first “global currency”.

Falling confidence in the greenback has been masked by the Fed’s aggressive buying, as central bankers in the Eccles Building now fear that the asset bubbles they’ve blown are big enough to harm the real economy, so we must wait for exactly the right time to let the air out of these bubbles so they don’t ruin people’s lives and upset the global economic apple cart. As the coronavirus outbreak has taught us, that time may never come.

But all the while, Russia and China have been quietly weening off of the dollar, and instead using rubles and yuan to settle transnational trade.

Since we live in a world where commerce is directed by the whims of the free market (at least, in theory), the Kremlin can just make Russian and Chinese companies substitute yuan and rubles for dollars with the flip of a switch:as Russian President Vladimir Putin once exclaimed, the US’s aggressive sanctions policy risks destroying the dollar’s reserve status by forcing more companies from Russia and China to search for alternatives to transacting in dollars, if for no other reason than to keep costs down (international economic sanctions can make moving money abroad difficult).

In 2019, Putin gleefully revealed that Russia had reduced the dollar holdings of its central bank by $101 billion, cutting the total in half.

And according to new data from the Russian Central Bank and Federal Customs Service, the dollar’s share of bilateral trade between Russia and China fell below 50% for the first time in modern history.

Businesses only used the greenback for roughly 46% of settlements between the two countries. Over the same period, the euro constituted an all-time high of 30%. While other national currencies accounted for 24%, also a new high.

As one ‘expert’ told the Nikkei Asian Review, it’s just the latest sign that Russia and China are forming a “de-dollarization alliance” to diminish the economic heft of Washington’s sanctions powers, and its de facto control of SWIFT, the primary inter-bank messaging service via which banks move money from country to country.

The shift is happening much more quickly than the US probably expected. As recently as 2015, more than 90% of bilateral trade between China and Russia was conducted in dollars.

Alexey Maslov, director of the Institute of Far Eastern Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences, told the Nikkei Asian Review that the Russia-China “dedollarization” was approaching a “breakthrough moment” that could elevate their relationship to a de facto alliance.

“The collaboration between Russia and China in the financial sphere tells us that they are finally finding the parameters for a new alliance with each other,” he said. “Many expected that this would be a military alliance or a trading alliance, but now the alliance is moving more in the banking and financial direction, and that is what can guarantee independence for both countries.”

Dedollarization has been a priority for Russia and China since 2014, when they began expanding economic cooperation following Moscow’s estrangement from the West over its annexation of Crimea. Replacing the dollar in trade settlements became a necessity to sidestep U.S. sanctions against Russia.

“Any wire transaction that takes place in the world involving U.S. dollars is at some point cleared through a U.S. bank,” explained Dmitry Dolgin, ING Bank’s chief economist for Russia. “That means that the U.S. government can tell that bank to freeze certain transactions.”
The process gained further momentum after the Donald Trump administration imposed tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars worth of Chinese goods. Whereas previously Moscow had taken the initiative on dedollarization, Beijing came to view it as critical, too.

“Only very recently did the Chinese state and major economic entities begin to feel that they might end up in a similar situation as our Russian counterparts: being the target of the sanctions and potentially even getting shut out of the SWIFT system,” said Zhang Xin, a research fellow at the Center for Russian Studies at Shanghai’s East China Normal University.

Russia’s push to accumulate yuan is not just about diversifying its foreign exchange reserves, Maslov explained. Moscow also wants to encourage Beijing to become more assertive in challenging Washington’s global economic leadership.

“Russia has a considerably more decisive position toward the United States [than China does],” Maslov said. “Russia is used to fighting, it does not hold negotiations. One way for Russia to make China’s position more decisive, more willing to fight is to show that it supports Beijing in the financial sphere.”

Six years have passed between Russia and China opened FX swap lines between their central banks in 2014. That three year deal was expanded in 2017.

While trying to assess the long-term risk, remember: Ray Dalio has apparently assigned a whole team of publicists to help spread his concerns about the potential fallout from a US-China “capital war”. It’s worth remembering that China has far more financial firepower with which to vex the US than many pundits are willing to acknowledge.

end

Turkey will not be happy with this: Russian S 300 air defense systems have been spotted in Libya. Believe it or not but Russia is backing USA sponsor Hafter. Thus Russia, the uSA and Egypt are on one side and Libya government and Turkey are on the other side

(South Front)

Russian S-300 Air Defense System Spotted In Libya?

Submitted by SouthFront

Russia has deployed an advanced S-300 air defense system to Libya to support the forces of Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar against the Turkish military and its proxies, local media reported on August 5.

According to photos surfacing online, the supposed S-300 system is deployed near the town of Ras Lanuf, a key oil export port controlled by the Libyan National Army (LNA). The town is located more than 200km away from the port city of Sirte, which the LNA is defending against Turkish-led forces.

The circulating photos supposedly show a 96L6E Cheese Board radar and a transporter erector launcher (TEL) similar to those used in S-300 and S-400 air-defense systems. This 3D early-warning and acquisition radar has a range of 300 km and can track up to 100 targets simultaneously.

Last month, several Arab sources already reported that an S-300 system had bee deployed in Libya. Egypt, an ally of the LNA, operates a variant of the system that is different from the one allegedly spotted near Ras Lanuf.

Turkish sources are already crying foul about the cowardly Russians who are aiming to shoot down peaceful Turkish combat drones democratically bombing LNA-controlled cities. At the same time, it should be noted that the photos from the Ras Lanuf area are yet to be verified. In particular, the pictured radar also looks similar to those of the Iranian-made Khordad-15 air defense system, which was used in 2019 to shoot down a RQ-4A Global Hawk BAMS-D surveillance drone of the United States over the Strait of Hormuz. In any case, if any of these versions is confirmed, it will be sad news for the Erdogan sultanate and its proxies.

Despite active preparations for an attack on Sirte, the Turkish Armed Forces, pro-Turkish Syrian militants and Tripoli forces have not yet launched an attack on the port city, likely fearing a direct military response by Egypt to such a move. Sporadic clashes regularly erupt west of Sirte and sides exchange isolated airstrikes, but the general situation on the frontline has stabilized.

This means that the conflict has at least temporarily entered into a positional war stage. In these conditions, the main backers of Field Marshal Khaftar – Egypt and the UAE, partially supported by France and Russia, have every chance to take the upper hand in this standoff even without the direct involvement of Russia or other major powers at their side.

end
LEBANON
Protests beginning in Beirut over the blast as their economy is now in a free fall.

“Tsunami Of Rage”: Lebanon Braces For Mass Protests Over Blast, Economy In Free Fall

Lebanon is bracing itself for a return to the massive demonstrations and riots which gripped the streets for much of last year, leading to closures of highways, banks, and public buildings. Like the years-long banking crisis, the government is seen as directly responsible for this week’s epic tragedy.

Already Thursday night small, sporadic angry protests popped up downtown areas of Beirut. It’s expected that following ongoing searches of rubble, as well as funerals for the over 135 killed, and initial clean-up efforts of a capital city covered in glass, mass demonstrations are expected to explode.

It was already a country on the brink, but the Tuesday blast centered on the port which had such force as to be compared to a mini-nuke has reportedly displaced 300,000 people – many of which saw entire walls of their homes ripped out – already in a dire situation of huge unemployment especially among young people, skyrocketing inflation, and a banking system teetering on collapse, which already saw closures for weeks at a time over the past year.

There’s also of course the COVID-19 crisis which has not abated yet. But even before pandemic shutdowns in Lebanon the World Bank projected a whopping 45% of the population would be below the poverty line by the end of 2020.

Thus anger at widespread government corruption and ineptitude was already swelling before it was revealed that the government allowed 2,750 metric tons of ammonium nitrate to be left in unsafe conditions right on the doorstep of populous residential areas.

One Middle East analyst and US-based professor, Elias Muhanna, aptly described that “a tsunami of rage” is gathering and about to be unleashed across the country.

Recall too how earlier this year and into last year it’s believed a record 25% of the entire population (of nearly seven million people) was on the streets protesting at one point.

This at the height of the banking and currency crisis which saw unprecedented restrictions put on patrons of banks: they couldn’t draw from their own savings accounts on fears of a run on cash (specifically the dollar), and had strict controls put on external transfers out of the country. This as the local Lebanese lira had effectively collapsed.

Lebanese officials estimate that the explosion resulted in between three and five billion dollars worth of destruction. Currently international aid is en route, including at least three cargo planes worth of emergency aid from the United States.

Multiple countries have also sent emergency teams to set up makeshift clinics at local stadiums, given the over 5,000 wounded in the blast are still being treated.

END

6.Global Issues

Issues on China vs USA and Turkey

a must read..

Michael Every…

 

Global Splintering’ Escalates Amid “Delusional” Markets

Authored by Michael Every via Rabobank,

For those who don’t read this Daily regularly, I have been warning that the US and China were heading for a real Cold War since late 2017, and I have been stating openly that the US was going to decouple from China for two years, with the sequence being trade, then tech, then capital. For a long time, this view was regarded as interesting or colourful, but extreme. Now it’s becoming mainstream – perhaps because it is impossible to ignore what is going on.

For example, US President Trump has signed an order banning TikTok in 45 days – and WeChat. As noted before, no WeChat, no chatting between the US and China given China bans Western apps. Back to the expensive telephone it is then…

…but not via a Chinese carrier. The US is also pushing ahead with a “Clean Network” policy that covers: ‘Clean Carrier’ to ensure no Chinese carriers are connected with US telecom networks; ‘Clean Store’ to remove untrusted applications from US mobile app stores; ‘Clean Apps’ to prevent untrusted Chinese smartphone manufacturers from pre-installing, or otherwise making available for download, trusted apps on their apps store; ‘Clean Cloud’ to protect US citizens’ most sensitive personal information and our businesses’ most valuable intellectual property; and, ‘Clean Cable’: to ensure the undersea cables connecting the US to the global internet are not subverted for intelligence gathering by China. This is as Google deletes 2,500 China-linked YouTube channels over “disinformation”.

In short, from both the US *and* the Chinese side, with their Great Firewall, we see a Splinternet developing. As the editor of the Global Times tweeted yesterday: “Pompeo’s call is to ultimately cut off China-US internet connection. This wild ambition will lead to fundamental consequences that humanity will be divided. With cooperation and exchange completely gone, China and the US will head for confrontation, followed by the risk of war.” So that’s tech.

On the trade side, next week is the crucial phase-one trade deal review. Trump’s presidential challenger Joe Biden has pointed out that China is falling very short of what it promised, upping the ante on the White House. Even before that,Trump signed another executive order to bring back US pharmaceutical manufacturing (from India and China, mostly), which apparently had been delayed by legal reviews. Of course, China’s trade data today showed exports surprising to the upside at 7.2% y/y vs. -0.6% consensus and yet imports -1.4% vs. a gain of 0.9% expected. That saw a monthly trade surplus of USD62bn(!) In short, China was a net drag on global growth as it bought less from everyone and sold far more – a mercantilism that will increase global protectionist pressures beyond pharma products.

The Global Times editor, bridging tech and trade –which WeChat does– and brushing aside mercantilism, added: “Without merchants crossing the border, troops will appear. Clean Network will stifle China-US cooperation and divide the internet, which will inevitably intensify confrontation. There are already many points of friction between the two countries. Risk of hot war will rise.”So that’s trade.

We all know that after initial unhappiness, markets soon adjusted to US-China trade tensions – though bond yields continued to go lower. Markets are also shrugging off tech tensions, despite the fundamental global schism this implies, because most in Western markets don’t use WeChat. They are also naturally ignoring any thought of war – unless gold and bond yields are telling us something on that front.

However, markets may wake up when the US-China split gets to capital. The Wall Street Journal today reports “US Plan Threatens to Delist Chinese Firms”, noting that unless they comply with US auditing requirements, which none can, they would be forced to give up their listings by end-2022. Please don’t forget we also have the looming issue of sanctions over Hong Kong ticking away in the background, where legislation imposes an end-2022 date at the latest to restrict USD access to at least some Chinese financial institutions. The worst-case scenario of what this can mean has already been spelled out above.

Yet if one wants to look just at markets, look at Turkey. It has also emerged as a major global economy of geostrategic importance, and one not shy of going its own way domestically and in foreign policy. Yet it is onthe cusp of a major currency crisisgiven it has run out of USD via a go for growth and go-for-broke strategy. This morning TRY was at a record low of 7.27 after state banks refrained from intervening on behalf of the CBRT, as they have been doing for months, and it’s hard to see where the selling stops. As our own Piotr Matys points out, major economic reforms are needed along with much higher interest rates, as they are 8.25% vs. 11.8% y/y inflation, and even then IMF help is likely needed (see here for more).

Yet the IMF still has the US as its largest shareholder and an EU member as its boss: are either going to be providing USD funds without changes to an expensive foreign policy that sees Turkey clashing with France, Greece, and Cyprus over energy, and with the US over Syria and missile defence? Great powers need power in all dimensions, as the Soviet Union found out when its economy failed, as China may also find out via its currency, and likewise the EU via its lack of a military.

On which front, the US needs to look after its economy. There was surprisingly good news yesterday on weekly initial jobless claims, which came in substantially lower than the 1.4 million expected, and all eyes will be on payrolls today. Yet there is still no sign of agreement in Congress on a new multi-trillion USD stimulus package, and we are instead reliant on rumours of further Trump executive orders on the likes of payroll tax cuts, unemployment extensions, and an eviction amnesty, without which consumer spending is about to face imminent collapse. As Matt Stoller tweeted yesterday:

“Dear Republican China hawks: China’s main ideological claim is that their system delivers for their people, and ours doesn’t deliver for our people. The Republican strategy of throwing tens of millions into poverty during a pandemic proves the CCP’s point.”

Meanwhile, as Australia’s government joins the US in a Cold War, with defence spending set to leap 40% over the next decade, the RBA was keen to show in today’s quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy that negative rates are not going to be used, echoing the BOE a day earlier. The Bank is also expecting Aussie borders to be closed until at least the middle of next year – which is worth noting as everyone else keeps trying to reopen their skies only to then have to roll the measures back. Markets have been able to shrug off this global splintering so far too, but to imagine that countries can remain mostly closed to travel for 18 months and not see deep, lasting hysteresis effects is as delusional as thinking that the US-China dynamic does not really matter.

end

7. OIL ISSUES

Shale boys are in trouble:

 

US Oil Rig Count Hits 15-Year-Low, Shale Remains In ‘Survival’ Mode

The number of rigs drilling for oil in the U.S. fell by 4 in the past week to 176, according to oil-field services company Baker Hughes. That represented a decline of 588 from the year-ago period, when there were 764 oil rigs drilling in the US and is the lowest since 2004…

The U.S. oil-rig count is often seen as a proxy for activity in the sector, but for now production has held up…

But, as OilPrice.com’s Irina Slav notesafter slashing capex plans for 2020 and idling rigs by the dozen, U.S. shale drillers are still not ready to return to their default state of perpetual growth. Oil is simply too cheap for that, so they are staying in survival mode, maintaining production with no plans to start boosting it anytime soon. Shale producers are caving in to low oil prices and worried investors, pledging to stick to production maintenance for the time being, Bloomberg reported this week, citing updates by several of the larger shale drillers in the United States. Modest growth in production is the most that any of these producers can offer their shareholders, with some cutting their earlier production guidance for this year and declining to provide any update on 2021.

According to some, U.S. onshore oil production shed as much as 2 million bpd when the double blow of the Saudi-Russian price war and the coronavirus pandemic struck. It will be a while before it recovers, and analysts see this “while” as at least a couple of years. Some even doubt that the industry will recover to its pre-crisis state at all.

Prices are at the heart of the problem, of course. This week benchmarks have been trending higher, but the rally has been limited: after both the API and the EIA reported substantial inventory declines that pushed West Texas Intermediate higher, today the U.S. benchmark was down at the time of writing, albeit modestly. Oil prices will likely continue to move extra-dynamically in the coming months as the spread of Covid-19 continues to cast a thick shadow over the future of the energy industry.

Karr Ingham, Petroleum Economist for the Texas Alliance of Energy Producers and creator of the Texas Petro Index summarized the situation in a June news release:

“Petroleum energy demand dropped off the cliff sharply and rapidly at the same time crude oil production was peaking, particularly in Texas and the U.S.,” Ingham said.

“That would have been bad enough; throw in a market share temper tantrum between Saudi Arabia and Russia at the worst possible time, and you have a thoroughly devastating impact on energy markets.”

It takes a lot of time to recover from such an impact, and this is becoming increasingly clear as prices remain stubbornly below $50, thwarting any hypothetical production growth plans. Layoffs, capex cuts, and bankruptcies are on the agenda right now, and this agenda will stay in place until WTI rises to at least $50, at least according to some industry executives who see that price level as high enough to restart drilling new wells.

Even then, however, efforts will focus on development, that is, exploiting already proven reserves. Spending on new exploration, meaning, a substantial increase in new production, will have to wait as the industry grapples with a reality that may involve some permanent oil demand loss. This reality may force a rethinking of the whole shale business model.

“For most of my career, we would reinvest all our cash flow and then show our success by how much we could grow our production,” Bloomberg quoted the chief executive of Concho Resources as saying earlier this month. “Well, that’s not how it’s going to work in the future.”

Tim Leach is very likely right: with all that cash flow getting poured back into production, most shale producers have accumulated sizable debt piles, and now these debt piles are sinking them. In the first half of the year, 23 shale oil companies in the U.S. filed for bankruptcy protection, with a collective debt loan of over $30 billion. And more debt is maturing over the next two years, which means more bankruptcies. Those that survive will need to come with a more financially sustainable model after burning through billions of cash for the single purpose of boosting production to the record-high cliff it fell off in the spring.

end

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings FRIDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1812 DOWN .0063 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS//CORONAVIRUS//PANDEMIC// /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /MIXED

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 105.68 UP 0.078 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.3080   DOWN   0.0057  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/

 

USA/CAN 1.3352 UP .0005 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  FRIDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL BY 63 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1812 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 32.43 POINTS OR 0.96% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 398.96 POINTS OR 1.60%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0,57%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL MIXED

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL MIXED 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 398.96 POINTS OR 1.60%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 32.43 POINTS OR 0.96%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN. 57% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 88.21  POINTS OR 0.39%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 2052.25

silver:$28.13-

Early FRIDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 0.533% !!! DOWN 1 IN POINTS from THURSDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 1.19 DOWN 1  IN BASIS POINTS from THURSDAY night.

USA dollar index early FRIDAY morning: 93.18 UP 39 CENT(S) from  THURSDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers FRIDAY MORNING

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And now your closing  FRIDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.30% DOWN 1 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.01%  DOWN 1   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.28%//DOWN 0 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:0.93 DOWN 0 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 65 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES TO –.51% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.44% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR FRIDAY

Closing currency crosses for FRIDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1769  DOWN     .01063 or 106 basis points

USA/Japan: 105.98 UP .402 OR YEN DOWN 50  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3039 DOWN .0098 POUND DOWN 98  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 68 basis points to 1.3387

 

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The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 6.9678    ON SHORE  (DOWN)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.9717  (YUAN DOWN)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  7.2605 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +01%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 4 IN basis points from THURSDAY at 0.57 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 1.24 UP 4 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 93.46 UP 67  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for FRIDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 5.24  0.09%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 83.20 POINTS OR .86%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 4.39 POINTS 0.09%

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 7.40 POINTS or 0.11%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 41.28 POINTS OR 0.21%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 41.40 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 44.65 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE FALLS:    73.79  THE CROSS HIGHER BY 0.39 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE LOWER BY 39 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES  TO –.51 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  41/53//

 

 

BRENT :  44.63

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 0.56… up 2 basis points…

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 1.232..up 3 basis points..

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.1787 ( DOWN 88   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:105.93 UP .334 (YEN DOWN 33 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 93.42 UP  64 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.3058 DOWN 49  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 7.2818//country is desperate, need dollars badly/will default.

 

 

the Russian rouble 73.68   down 0.29 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( down 29 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3380 down 62 BASIS pts

 

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.52%

 

The Dow closed UP 47.74 POINTS OR 0.17%

 

NASDAQ closed DOWN 297.09 POINTS OR 0.87%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  122.18 CLOSED DOWN .47

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 0.243%//libor dropping like a stone

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

Tech Tumbles Into Weekend, Copper Crumbles As Silver Soars

While stocks soared on the week (led by Small Caps’ best week in two months)…

Today’s “good” news on jobs (spoiling the odds of more imminent money-printing) and stimulus plan delays (again less money to be thrown around) sparked the biggest drop in Nasdaq in almost 3 weeks… Schumer said today’s meeting was “disappointing” and that sent stocks lower in the last hour, then Mnuchin said Trump would do an Executive Order and stocks rose pushing the Dow and S&P (barely) green on the day

Nasdaq down for first time in eight days

As Jim Bianco (@biancoresearch) explained so succinctly:

Talks on passing the latest stimulus package are stalled. This is stimulus checks and additions to unemployment insurance.

Does anyone doubt if the stock market tanked 10% to 20% they would pass this bill immediately?

But it does not tank because the Fed and their “unlimited printing press” stand ready to halt any “unpleasantness” in markets.

So, the better the “wealthy” do (stockholders) the less the urgency to help the “not wealthy” (non-stockholders).

The worst inequality ever?

And FANG stocks tumbled…

Source: Bloomberg

Worst day for momentum in almost a month…

Source: Bloomberg

“Someone turn the machines back on!!!”

Amid the biggest weekly short-squeeze in two months

Source: Bloomberg

After more than a week of decoupling, bond yields and stock prices converged a little today…

 

Source: Bloomberg

Treasuries were sold today, sending yields positive for the week…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields remain stuck at or near record lows…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar ended the week basically unchanged after an early roller-coaster…

Source: Bloomberg

Offshore Yuan was hit on US sanctions today…

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos were mixed on the week, Ripple and Ethereum gained notably (despite today’s weakness), Bitcoin was up very modestly and Litecoin And Bitcoin Cash were red..

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin managed to recover the losses from last weekend’s flash-crash… only to flash-crash (smaller) today…

Source: Bloomberg

As Ethereum hit $400 and was immediately slammed…

Source: Bloomberg

On the week, silver soared as copper was clubbed like a baby seal today…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold futures fell today but remain above $2,000…

Silver also fell on the day after futures almost tagged $30…

The gold-silver ratio crashed below 70x this week – its lowest since April 2017…

Source: Bloomberg

But still a long way to go its 60x average level…

Copper diverged dramatically from stocks (what does Dr.Copper know?), suffering its worst week since March…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, we note that one thing is in great demand.

The physical gold premium over futures prices spiked to its highest since 2014…

 

e note that one thing is in great demand.

The physical gold premium over futures prices spiked to its highest since 2014…

Source: Bloomberg

 

Source: Bloomberg

 

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

Good News Is Bad News’? – Tech, Bonds, & Bullion Are All Getting Whacked

Small Caps are soaring… short-squeezed ever higher but the big tech Nasdaq is down hard today…

 

Bonds are being sold

 

And gold (and silver) are being dumped…

 

Is “good” jobs news, “bad” money-printing/stimulus news? And therefore “sell it all”?

ii)Market data/USA

A phony report:  A strong 1.76 million jobs added

(zerohedge)

Trump Was Right: “Big” Payroll Number Smashes Expectations As 1.76 Million Jobs Added

With analyst and trader expectations about today’s payrolls report fluctuating wildly, with some expecting a sizable drop after this week’s disappointing ADP report and ISM employment components not to mention rolling over high frequency date…

… while others hoping the recent trend of payrolls increases continues after president Trump tried to stoke optimism saying to expect a “big number”, moments ago the BLS reported that in the end the good news won out with the US economy adding 1.763MM, which while above the 1.48 million estimate was still well below June’s record 4.8MM surge.

Still, as the ADP payrolls report hinted, the manufacturing sector is starting to sputter, with just 26K jobs added in July.

Putting the rebound in context, the US economy still has a ways to go before it fills even half the labor gap that opened after the March covid shutdowns.

With more people returning to work, especially lower paid workers, the average hourly earnings declined once again, shrinking to 4.8% Y/Y from 4.9% last month, if well above the 4.2% expectation.

The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls decreased by 0.1 hour to 34.5 hours in July. In manufacturing, the workweek rose by 0.7 hour to 39.7 hours, and overtime increased by 0.3 hour to 2.8 hours. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged at 34.0 hours

The unemployment rate also continued to slide, and from 11.1% last month it declined to just 10.2% in July, well below the 10.6% expected.

One reason for the rate improvement: the participation rate dipped from 61.5% to 61.4%

Curiously, almost the entire gain in payrolls was the result of a shrinkage in the number of “temporary unemployed” which dropped by 1.34MM to 9.225MM.

The question is: at what point do all these millions in “temporary layoffs” become permanent.

Looking at the details of the jobs report, the largest employment increases in July occurred in leisure and hospitality, government, retail trade, professional and business services, other services, and health care.

  • Employment in leisure and hospitality increased by 592,000, accounting for about one-third of the gain in total nonfarm employment in July. Employment in food services and drinking places rose by 502,000, following gains of 2.9 million in May and June combined. Despite the gains over the last 3 months, employment in food services and drinking places is down by 2.6 million since February. Over the month, employment also rose in amusements, gambling, and recreation (+100,000).
  • Government employment rose by 301,000 in July but is 1.1 million below its February level. Typically, public-sector education employment declines in July (before seasonal adjustment). However, employment declines occurred earlier than usual this year due to the pandemic, resulting in unusually large July increases in local government education (+215,000) and state government education (+30,000) after seasonal adjustment. A July job gain in federal government (+27,000) reflected the hiring of temporary workers for the 2020 Census.
  • In July, retail trade added 258,000 jobs. Employment in the industry is 913,000 lower than in February. In July, nearly half of the job gain in retail trade occurred in clothing and clothing accessories stores (+121,000). By contrast, the component of general merchandise stores that includes warehouse clubs and supercenters lost jobs (-64,000).
  • Employment in professional and business services increased in July (+170,000) but remains 1.6 million below its February level. The majority of July’s gain occurred in temporary help services (+144,000).
  • In July, the other services industry added 149,000 jobs, with most of the increase occurring in personal and laundry services (+119,000). Since February, employment in other services is down by 627,000.
  • In July, health care added 126,000 jobs, with employment growth in offices of dentists (+45,000), hospitals (+27,000), offices of physicians (+26,000), and home health care services (+16,000). Job losses continued in nursing and residential care facilities (-28,000). Employment in health care is down by 797,000 since February.
  • In July, employment in social assistance increased by 66,000, with child day care services accounting for most of the gain (+45,000). Employment in social assistance is 460,000 lower than in February.
  • Employment in transportation and warehousing rose by 38,000 in July, following an increase of 87,000 in June. Despite job gains over the past 2 months, employment in the industry is down by 470,000 since a recent peak in January. In July, employment rose in transit and ground passenger transportation (+20,000), air transportation (+16,000), and couriers and messengers (+9,000).
  • Manufacturing employment increased by 26,000 in July. An employment gain in motor vehicles and parts (+39,000) was partially offset by losses in fabricated metal products (-11,000), machinery (-7,000), and computer and electronic products (-6,000). Although manufacturing has added 623,000 jobs over the past 3 months, employment is 740,000 lower than in February.
  • Financial activities added 21,000 jobs in July, with most of the gain in real estate and rental and leasing (+15,000). Since February, employment in financial activities is down by 216,000.
  • In July, construction employment changed little (+20,000), following job gains of 619,000 in May and June combined. However, employment in the industry remains 444,000 below its February level.
  • Mining continued to shed jobs in July (-7,000), reflecting a loss in support activities for mining (-11,000). Mining has lost 127,000 jobs since a recent peak in January 2019, although nearly three-fourths of this decline has occurred since February 2020.

end

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

Rapid food inflation: unemployment remains at depression levels

(zerohedge)

Pandemic Triggers Rapid Food Inflation As Unemployment Remains At Great Depression Levels

Food prices at supermarkets surged during the pandemic as tens of millions of Americans lost their jobs.

According to the latest seasonally adjusted data by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), the virus pandemic has had a tremendous impact on food prices from February to June:

Meat and poultry prices jumped 11%, with beef prices surging 20%. Pork climbed by 8.5%, egg prices increased by 10%, and cereals and fresh vegetables were up more than 4%. 

“The pandemic has caused a surge in demand for groceries as millions of Americans stay home and avoid eating out. While there’s no significant shortage of food, disruptions in the supply chain have created scarcities and driven up prices,” CNN Business noted.

Rapid food inflation comes at the worst possible time for the working poor, who were already struggling well before the virus-induced recession, with insurmountable debts, stuck in a renting society, and had very little savings to weather an economic downturn.

These folks have been thrown off a fiscal cliff just weeks ago. They were receiving a $600 per week stimulus check, but since the program ended in late July, their ability to buy food or pay bills has come to a standstill as politicians on Capitol Hill bicker about the next round of direct payments.

With inflation now around 1% and unemployment at Great Depression levels, the Federal Reserve is set to announce new commitments in September to ramp up inflation back to its 2% target.

If the Fed decides to ramp up inflation, possibly sending food, clothing, energy, and shelter prices higher, a larger portion of people’s incomes, as we’ve explained, a quarter of all household income comes from the government (i.e. direct payments), would be used for survival instead of spending it on things like iPhones, Pelotons, Casper mattresses, and or Teslas.

As the depressionary storm continues to swirl above America, 30 million folks have already said they did not have enough to eat in late July, which was the highest level people going hungry since food bank lines emerged across the country in April/May.

We recently noted food bank lines have reemerged as the recovery stalls.

And if the Fed wants to see higher inflation, they should send a few staff economist to local supermarkets.

end

 

Bankruptcies galore in the USA farming industry

(zerohedge)

Farmageddon Continues As Bankruptcies Rise 8% 

The American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) released a new report Tuesday (Aug. 4) showing farm bankruptcies continue to increase.

AFBF found bankruptcies rose 8% over the last 12 months (from June 2019 to June 2020), with 580 filings. The Midwest, Northwest, and Southeast recorded the most bankruptcies, representing 80% of all filings across the US. Wisconsin was the epicenter for filings, followed by Nebraska, Georgia, and Minnesota.

Filings slowed in 1H20 partly because of financial assistance provided by the Coronavirus Aid, Relief & Economic Security (CARES) Act, including direct payments to farmers via the Coronavirus Food Assistance Program (CFAP), along with Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loans.

Farmers are on government life-support. 

AFBF’s President Zippy Duvall said the new rounds of farm aid helped cushion farmers from the economic impact of the virus-induced recession.

AFBF’s Chief Economist John Newton said CARES Act assistance was only a “bandage,” warning filings could increase if aid programs are not continued.

AFBF said, “approximately 60% of farm bankruptcies have been completed successfully – the highest successful percentage of all the reorganization chapters.”

Even before the virus pandemic, a global farm glut pressured agricultural prices. Farm incomes imploded, and bankruptcies began to increase in 2016. President Trump then unleashed a trade war against China, which in itself forced Chinese buyers to abandon US markets for South American ones.

Missouri’s Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute expects the Trump administration to dish out a record $33 billion in aid payments to farmers this year. What this all means is that farmers are on government life-support.

end

 

CORONAVIRUS/UPDATE

 

California Has Been Under-Counting COVID-19 Cases For Weeks; Global Total Tops 19 Million: Live Updates

Summary:

  • Global total tops 19 million
  • Newsom says Cali struggling to fix under-counting bug
  • Philippines, Indonesia add new cases
  • Hong Kong launches free testing scheme for all 7.5 million residents
  • India passes 2 million cases, joining US and Brazil
  • U of Washington scientists project 300k US deaths by December

* * *

The biggest news in the US on Friday has been brewing since at least Tuesday, when California public health official acknowledged that the country’s largest testing-and-tracing effort may have accidentally undercounted cases over the past week or two, suggesting that the recent decline in new cases might be illusory. On Monday, Governor Gavin Newsom touted a 21% drop in the average daily rate of new cases from the prior week. According to Bloomberg, as of Thursday evening, state officials still couldn’t say when this problem would be fixed.

To be sure, this vexing bug in California’s system doesn’t necessarily negate the recent decline in new cases. It just means California state officials can’t say anything for certain. Top Cali public health official have warned that the actual numbers are likely too low, but by how much, they couldn’t say.

California officials have uncovered a bug in their virus reporting effort — the nation’s largest, with more than 120,000 people tested each day. as a sign of stabilization. The next day, his top public health official warned the numbers were likely too low — by how much he couldn’t say — and the state didn’t know when the problem would be fixed.

We don’t know if our cases are plateauing, rising or decreasing,” Sara Cody, public health director for Silicon Valley’s Santa Clara County, said at a press briefing. “I would say that right now, we’re back to feeling blind.”

Here’s a chart of California cases…

…and deaths.

Globally, cases have reached 19,089,364 on Friday, topping the 19 million mark, according to Johns Hopkins University.


The worldwide deaths hit 714,744.

Across the US, the number of new cases has been declining.

While deaths have continued to edge higher, though the 7-day average has started to creep lower in the US.

But more signs of a second (or third) wave have emerged in Southeast Asia, where the Philippines recently surpassed Indonesia as the worst-hit country. The later country reported 2,473 new infections Friday, bringing the total in the country to 121,226. The country also reported 72 new deaths, bringing its total to 5,593.

The Philippines reported 3,379 new cases, bringing the country’s total infections to 122,754, while deaths increased by 24 to 2,168.

The Hong Kong government is introducing a universal voluntary coronavirus testing scheme to test all of the city’s 7.5 million residents for free. Meanwhile, the city reported nearly 100 new cases Friday. Tokyo, meanwhile, reported 462 new cases, its first 400+ reading since Aug. 1. China reported 37 new cases, unchanged from a day earlier.

India’s cases topped 2 million, with a record single-day spike of 62,538 in the last 24 hours. Fatalities jumped to 41,585 after reporting another 886 since Thursday morning.

Finally, nearly 300,000 Americans could die from COVID-19 by Dec. 1 according to the latest forecast fro  University of Washington health experts. They also projected that 70,000 lives could be saved if people wore masks regularly. This, despite the fact that the pace of deaths in the US once again is on the decline…though that could soon change as school reopen.

end

A terrific commentary from Tom Luongo on what to expect in the upcoming Democratic convention

(Tom Luongo)

Luongo: The DNC Convention Is The Election

Authored by Tom Luongo via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

For nearly a year it has been my primary thesis that the DNC nominating convention would determine the fate of the presidential election here in the states. These four days may, in fact, be more dramatic than any Democratic convention since 1860 when incumbent James Buchanan was tossed aside to ensure a lawyer with railroad ties from Illinois, Stephen Douglas, squared off against Republican Abraham Lincoln.

Lincoln was also a railroad lawyer from Illinois. Just sayin’.

The convention is less than two weeks away and serious questions about the Democrats’ strategy should be plain to see for anyone who pays even cursory attention to presidential politics.

How can they possibly run Joe Biden?

It’s not that Biden hasn’t been a good soldier for the empire, he has. It is that he is unpresentable as a candidate in public. The evidence of his cognitive decline, which has accelerated in recent months, mounts every time he fails to even read a teleprompter correctly.

The only thing the Democrats are united on is their hatred for Trump. But that hatred cannot be an animating principle to base an election strategy on, though, to this point, they certainly have tried.

Internally, there has been a three-sided war on for control of the party’s future.

  1. There is the Boomers, represented by Hillary Clinton’s faction, who lost spectacularly when she backed a male version of herself, the profoundly disconnected and unlikeable Mike Bloomberg, as a stalking horse to pad her delegate count.
  2. There is the frustrated Gen-Xers, represented by Barack Obama who was supposed to lead the party after his two terms as president. Biden is his representative and was the clear winner in the primaries as the candidate who theoretically could swing the center of the country away from Trump.
  3. And then there is the Millennials, represented in the primaries by Bernie Sanders and the so-called squad. They are led now by Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez whose goal is to kick out all of these globalists and remake the party as the vanguard of a U.S. cultural revolution.

None of these people are acceptable to the center of the U.S. who today, no matter how hard they are being gaslit to believe, ultimately blame Donald Trump for their current problems.

And Obama pressed for Biden to be the candidate. He finally beat Hillary for nominal control of the party, getting his candidate through the primary miasma.

You can’t blame a President for a natural disaster, but that’s been the Democrats’ strategy all year with COVID-19. Whatever Trump said or did in response to the virus was wrong, even if that meant exhibiting blatant hypocrisy or openly contradicting previous positions.

In fact, this has been the Democrats’ strategy since before Trump took office and it has made them look hysterical and irrelevant.

So, with the convention less than two weeks away the big question is who Biden’s running mate will be. The fact that he hasn’t chosen one yet tells you that they have no strategy for actually winning the election other than trying to steal it through mail-in ballots.

Because none of the potential candidates can do what the Democrats need a vice-presidential candidate to do, deliver a key battleground state.

For Biden, given the rapidity of his decline, the V.P. pick has the added burden of actually being the President for most of the elected term, because the convention will make it clear to the world that Biden will step aside for health reasons no later than mid-2021 if he wins.

But, more pressing for the Democrats, is the fundamental problem that in order to beat back AOC’s Squad and keep Hillary bound down, they are now saddled with an unelectable candidate and a platoon of potential running mates who are wholly unacceptable to either the DNC establishment, the country at large or both.

Whoever tunes into the virtual convention will realize almost immediately that this time, more than any election in the televised era, when filling in that ballot in November you will be voting on the qualifications bottom half of the ticket rather than the top.

Moreover, since Biden has declined so quickly the odds of an internal coup against him occurring at the convention in Milwaukee is high. It’s why the New York Times is now calling to cancel presidential debates. It’s not because “never made sense as a test for presidential leadership.” It’s because, though the writer doth protest too much, everyone knows that Trump will wipe the floor with Biden.

In fact, I would argue debates between Trump and Biden will be so lopsided they would work to Biden’s advantage as people who see Trump’s attacks on him as ‘elder abuse.’ Trump would have to actually tone down his persona in a way I’m not sure he’s capable of doing.

But I digress.

The other factions within the DNC are sharpening their knives I type this. Hillary will go in filled with all the bile her gall bladder can still produce to thwart the potential ascension of any other woman to the presidency before her.

AOC and company will go in with Bernie’s delegates and play spoiler. Obama will try to figure out how to hold his new-found power together while Biden, frankly, drools on himself in the corner.

And that may be the most damning image of this pathetic and sordid affair I can muster. Biden should have already stepped aside. He should have already accepted the gold watch for his service and moved on to the great globalist golf course. But instead he’s being abused by cynical, power-mad ideologues desperate to avoid not only their own malfeasance, i.e. Obamagate, but have one last shot at delivering the U.S. back into the hands of The Davos Crowd’s move towards their Great Reset.

It’s clear that this election season has been about prepping the stage for the campaign season that puts so much pressure on Trump to perform miracles that Americans simply reject him as incompetent and will accept anyone other than him as President.

In Milwaukee, no matter what happens, we’re going to find out just how incompetent his opposition truly is.

END
The truth behind the numbers in layoffs
(Mish Shedlock//Mishstalk)

Millions Of Workers Suffering From Repeat Layoffs

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,

Due to failed reopenings people have been called back to work only to be laid off again.

The California Policy Lab has interesting insights into Unemployment Insurance Claims in  California During the COVID-19 Pandemic.

Key Findings

  1. The number of  initial UI claims has increased steadily from May 17th to July 18th, followed by a slight drop in the week of July 25th . In each of the last nine weeks, regular initial UI claims were over two times the peak of weekly initial claims during the Great Recession, yet data from continuing claims indicates a gradual decline in the number of individuals collecting benefits each week.
  2. The steady rise in initial claims since May 17th is nearly entirely explained by an increasing number of additional claims—claims which are “reopened” after a claimant’s temporary return to work, implying many workers suffered from repeated layoffs during the crisis. In the week ending July 25th, 57% of regular initial claims were additional claims, compared to just above 40% before the crisis, and 5% during the peak. [Lead Chart]
  3. This is the first study publishing the number of unique claimants in the state, instead of tallying all initial claims, which results in substantial double-counting. 6.23 million unique California claimants, or 32% of the California workforce, has filed for UI benefits since the start of the COVID-19 crisis in mid-March. Since many of these 6.23 million workers have filed multiple claims, this total is substantially smaller (24% less) than the 8.18 million initial claims that have been filed in the same period.
  4. In the week ending July 11th, 3.46 million claimants, or about 18% of the CA labor force, were eligible to receive unemployment insurance benefits. Unlike more common statistics of weekly UI payment receipt, we are able to count claimants in terms of when they were unemployed, not when they were paid (which is usually several weeks later, and complicated by varying processing lags).
  5. Without the $600 per week additional benefits from FPUC, half of all individuals receiving UI benefits would have received payments below the Federal Poverty Level. California claimants have received $35.5 billion in FPUC payments for unemployment experienced between the start of the program and July 11th.
  6. In the week ending July 11th , a total of 529 thousand individuals (or 2.7% of the labor force) either received partial UI or were denied benefits because of excess earnings. The share of paid claimants receiving partial benefits has risen substantially since early May, but ticked down during the week ending July 11th. This indicates a substantial fraction of individuals that recently returned to work are working reduced hours and may still be receiving unemployment benefits.

Impact of $600 Weekly Checks

FPUC benefits made a substantial difference for UI claimants in CA. For example, $914 per week ($314 + $600) puts the median claimant at about 55% of median family income (MFI), and above the HUD threshold for “very low-income” (50% MFI). The claimant would still be deemed “low-income” (below 80% MFI) in the absence of other income sources in the household

California Not Unique

Points number two, five, and six are the key ideas.

California is not unique. This implies millions of workers nationally are suffering through repeated layoffs and reduced hours.

PUA Dependency

Nationally, about 13 million workers are solely dependent on PUA, having no state benefits.

Some of those people are working part-time. Working or not, the weekly $600 checks stopped flowing  on July 25.

Progress?

There is still a Huge Gap Between the GOP and the Democrat Stimulus Plans but we keep hearing reports of progress.

The alleged progress is so great that Trump Weighs Imposing His Stimulus Plan, Constitution be Damned.

iv) Swamp commentaries)

Ex-Colleagues See Durham Dropping Bombshells Before Labor Day

By Paul Sperry of Real Clear Investigations

While much speculation inside the Beltway says U.S. Attorney John Durham will punt the results of his so-called Spygate investigation past the election to avoid charges of political interference, sources who have worked with Durham on past public corruption cases doubt he’ll bend to political pressure — and they expect him to drop bombshells before Labor Day.

Durham’s boss, Attorney General Bill Barr, also pushed back on the notion his hand-picked investigator would defer action. Under Democratic questioning on Capitol Hill last week, he refused to rule out a pre-election release.

 

AG William Barr was asked, “Under oath, do you commit to not releasing any report by Mr. Durham before the November election?” His reply: “No.’

“Under oath, do you commit to not releasing any report by Mr. Durham before the November election?” Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D-Fla.) asked Barr, citing longstanding Justice Department policy not to announce new developments in politically sensitive cases before an election.

“No,” the attorney general curtly replied.

Justice Department policy prohibits prosecutors from taking overt steps in politically charged cases typically within 60 days of an election. Accordingly, Durham would have to make a move by the Friday before Labor Day, or Sept. 4.

A low-profile prosecutor, Durham has kept a tight lid on his investigation into the origins of the specious Russiagate investigation of Donald Trump and his 2016 campaign, leading to rampant speculation about who he might prosecute and whether he would take action ahead of the Nov. 3 presidential election.

That could well be of historic consequence, since his probe involves both the Trump administration and high-level officials in the previous administration, including Trump’s presumptive Democratic rival, former Vice President Joe Biden. Recently declassified FBI notes show Biden offered input into the investigation of Trump adviser Michael Flynn in early January 2017. Another declassified document reveals that Biden was among those who requested Flynn’s identity be “unmasked” in foreign intelligence intercepts around that same time.

 

Former Vice President Joe Biden: Durham’s probe involves officials in  two administrations, including Trump’s presumptive Democratic opponent.

If Durham announces criminal indictments or plea agreements involving former officials operating under the Obama-Biden administration, or releases a report documenting widespread corruption, independent voters could sour on Biden and sympathize with Trump.  On the other hand, kicking the ball past the election could dispirit Trump’s base.

“I would find it hard to believe that he punts under any circumstances,” said former assistant FBI director Chris Swecker, who knows Durham personally and has worked with the hard-nosed prosecutor on prior investigations.

He pointed out that Durham would risk throwing away 16 months of investigative work if he delayed action beyond the election.

“There’s no question that if Biden is elected, everything Durham has done at that point will be canceled out,” Swecker explained, adding that Biden would replace Barr and possibly even Durham. But by putting indictments and reports “into the public arena” before the election, Durham would put a Biden administration in the position of either taking further action or closing down his probe.

“It would make it very difficult for Biden’s appointees to undo his charges or bury the results of his probe,” he said. “John knows this and I fully expect he will take action before the election.”

Swecker, who’s also a former prosecutor, anticipates Durham will deliver criminal charges, a written report or some combination of the two around the first week in September, if not sooner. “He must get his work done and out to the public by Labor Day,” he said. “That way he avoids any accusations that he was trying to impact the election.”

Democracy 21, a liberal Washington watchdog group, has already cited the department policy in recent complaints to Barr demanding he suspend Durham’s investigation and place on hold any further actions or public comments about it until after the election.

“If Barr allows indictments from the Durham investigation to come out during the presidential election campaign, he would be abandoning longstanding DOJ policy by misusing the department’s prosecutorial power to support Trump’s reelection campaign,” Democracy 21 President Fred Wertheimer argued.

Swecker, who served 24 years with the FBI before retiring as assistant director of the FBI’s Criminal Investigative Division, said he expects Durham to take more action “than just issuing a report” similar to the 500-page document issued in December by Justice’s inspector general, Michael Horowitz. The IG made criminal referrals to Durham, including against an FBI attorney accused of altering evidence used to support a surveillance warrant on a former Trump adviser.

“I know John Durham. I worked under him on the Whitey Bulger case, which resulted in indictments of [corrupt FBI] agents,” Swecker said. “I don’t think he’s the least bit squeamish about bringing indictments if there is criminal exposure.”

Swecker says he’s confident Durham has uncovered crimes. “He’s onto something, I’m convinced of it, otherwise he would have folded up his tent by now,” he asserted in a RealClearInvestigations interview.

The lack of media leaks coming from Durham’s office is another sign he is building a serious corruption case, Swecker said. Targets and witnesses have largely been kept in the dark about the scope and direction of his investigation, encouraging cooperation and possible plea deals. And the secrecy of grand jury proceedings has been fiercely protected.

“I’m impressed with the discipline his team has shown,” Swecker said. “There’s been no leaks. The investigation has been very close-hold.”

Durham, a Republican, has been known to threaten to polygraph investigators whenever he suspected a leak.

His team is led by his deputy, Nora Dannehy, who specializes in the prosecution of complex white-collar and public corruption cases. A Democrat with a reputation for integrity, she left a high-paying corporate job to rejoin Durham’s office in March 2019, the month after Barr was confirmed.

Barr officially announced in May 2019 that he had put Durham in charge of looking into what he called the government’s “spying” on the Trump campaign in 2016. Was that surveillance justified? Or was it done to smear Trump and sink his campaign — and when that failed, his presidency? Durham is exploring a host of other questions, including: What role did the CIA play? Did it monitor Trump advisers overseas? Were U.S. laws restricting spying on U.S. citizens broken? Did the spy agency slant U.S. intelligence on Russian election interference to justify the anti-Trump operation?

“As a former CIA analyst, Barr recognized that this is the biggest thing since Watergate in terms of the abuse of the intelligence community,” Swecker said. “This is a huge, huge intelligence scandal.”

Swecker named former FBI attorney Kevin Clinesmith among officials most vulnerable to possible criminal charges in Durham’s investigation of the investigators. Justice’s watchdog made a criminal referral pertaining to his conduct – specifically, that Clinesmith forged an email in a way that hid the fact that former Trump adviser Carter Page had been a cooperating CIA source on Russia. The information, if disclosed to the FISA court, would have weakened the FBI’s case that Page was a “Russian agent.”

On the other hand, Swecker does not expect Durham to indict former FBI Director James Comey, nor former CIA Director John Brennan or Director of National Intelligence James Clapper. None of these central figures in the scandal has been interviewed by Durham’s office, according to recent published reports, though Durham reportedly is working out details with Brennan’s lawyer for a pending interview. Durham’s investigators have already reviewed Brennan’s emails, call logs and other records.

 

John Brennan: Indictments of the CIA boss, James Comey and James Clapper are not expected. Says ex-FBI official Swecker: “It’s hard to prove criminal intent at their level, and unless there’s a smoking gun, like an email or text, they’ll probably get off with a damning report about their activities.”

“It’s hard to prove criminal intent at their level, and unless there’s a smoking gun, like an email or text, they’ll probably get off with a damning report about their activities,” Swecker said.

Durham’s portfolio also includes exploring the extent to which Ukraine played a role in the counterintelligence operation directed at the Trump campaign during the 2016 election. Officials from Kiev, the Democratic National Committee and the Obama administration reportedly coordinated efforts to dig up dirt on Trump – and Biden was Obama’s point man in Ukraine at the time.

Though Biden may factor into Durham’s probe, don’t expect him to appear in any pre-election report. Another longtime Durham colleague noted that political candidates cannot be part of indictments or any report on investigative findings, according to Barr’s own rules.

“The policy says you can’t indict political candidates or use overt investigative methods targeting them in the weeks before an election,” said the former federal prosecutor, who requested anonymity.

Barr has publicly acknowledged the policy. “The idea is you don’t go after candidates,” he said in an April radio interview. “You don’t indict candidates or perhaps someone that’s sufficiently close to a candidate within a certain number of days before an election.”

The former prosecutor, who’s worked with Durham, said his old colleague may start revealing developments from his case weeks in advance of the 60-day cut-off, or ideally right after the political conventions. The GOP convention, which follows the Democrats’ gathering, ends Aug. 27.

“They are nervous about affecting the election, so timing is everything,” he said. “It will be tricky.”

At the same time, the former Justice official said Durham could exploit a loophole in the department rule, memorialized in memos dating to 2008, that allows for action closer to the election. It states that “law enforcement officers and prosecutors may never select the timing of investigative steps or criminal charges for the purpose of affecting any election, or for the purpose of giving an advantage or disadvantage to any candidate or political party. Such a purpose is inconsistent with the Department’s mission.” (Emphasis added.)

The operative phrase – “for the purpose of” – leaves leeway for actions close to an election that aren’t taken “for the purpose” of affecting the election. In other words, Durham wouldn’t necessarily have to lie low for the two months in the run-up to the election.

Some are skeptical Durham will deliver at all, regardless of the deadline, while others question his reputation as a fierce prosecutor. They point to his nearly three-year investigation of CIA officials who destroyed videos of terrorist detainees allegedly being “tortured.” Congress had sought the evidence, but Durham closed the case in 2012 without filing any criminal charges. And his final report about what he found remains classified. In a 2018 criminal case, moreover, he cleared Comey’s general counsel, James Baker, of unauthorized leaks to the media.

The Senate’s top FBI watchdog, Chuck Grassley, has grown frustrated with Durham’s lack of progress. “Durham sh[ou]ld be producing some fruit of his labor,” the Iowa senator groused in a recent tweet.

Swecker attributes the sluggish pace of Durham’s sprawling probe to the COVID-19 health scare, which has restricted travel and grand jury meetings in the D.C. area. Durham’s team of investigators, who include retired FBI agents, has been operating out of his New Haven, Conn., offices. Besides Washington, they have taken trips abroad. Before the coronavirus outbreak, they interviewed authorities and other sources in Italy, Britain and Australia.

In addition, Durham’s agents have been slowed by an avalanche of subpoenaed electronic media, including emails, texts and direct messages, “which are incredibly difficult and time-consuming to sort through,” Swecker said. Such evidence is not limited to FBI, Justice and CIA officials. Durham also has reportedly obtained, for instance, data and meta-data contained on two BlackBerry cellphones used by Joseph Mifsud, a shadowy Maltese professor who some believe was used by the FBI to create a predicate to open the original case against the Trump campaign.

During last week’s House hearing, Rep. Tom McClintock, R-Calif., asked Barr if he would be able to “right this wrong” against Trump before the election.

“I really can’t predict that,” the attorney general answered. “John Durham is looking at all these matters. COVID did delay that action for a while. But he’s working very diligently.”

Added Barr: “Justice is not something you can order up on a schedule like you’re ordering a pizza.”

McClintock warned Barr that if he is succeeded by a Biden appointee, Durham’s investigation will simply go away.

“I understand your concern,” Barr sighed.

end

Mnuchin Says Democrat Demands On Stimulus Are “Non Starter” As Trump Weighs Executive Order

As millions of unemployed Americans and struggling businesses wait for lawmakers to hammer out the fifth coronavirus relief package, Democrats remain unwilling to consider a temporary extension of a $600 per week unemployment boost – instead suggesting the GOP meet them in the middle.

Looks like that’s a non-starter.

While walking into House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s (D-CA) office on Friday, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin told reporters that a Democratic proposal to double the GOP’s $1 trillion stimulus proposal if the Democrats drop theirs by $1 trillion is a “non-starter.”

“Yesterday, I offered to them, we’ll take down $1 trillion if you add $1 trillion in. They said absolutely not,” said Pelosi, adding “If we could do that, if we take down $1 trillion and they add $1 trillion, we’ll be within range, but we must meet the needs of the American people.”

During the presser, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) blamed White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows for the impasse.

“Basically what’s happening is Mr. Meadows is from the tea party. You have 20 Republicans in the Senate greatly influenced by them. And they don’t want to spend the necessary dollars to help get America out of this mess. Ideology sorta blinds them,” said Schumer, adding “The House doesn’t have the votes to go south of $2 trillion. The Senate Democrats won’t support something less than $2 trillion.”

Meadows and Mnuchin hit back, saying that Democrats have rejected their offers of compromise on the unemployment insurance boost.

While there’s an overlap in having schools, extended unemployment benefits, direct payments to the public as top priorities, the sticking points are, as always, in the details — who qualifies and how much to spend.

Additionally, Republicans have a heavy emphasis on liability protection, which Democrats said are unnecessary.

Meanwhile, the Democrats are pushing for funds for mail-in-ballots and elections, the financially struggling post office, food security programs, and a surge of funding for state and local governments — none of which have gained traction with the Republicans. –Washington Times

Senate Republicans, meanwhile, are divided on their own proposal according to the Washington Times, which notes that “about a dozen of their ranks skeptical of adding another $1 trillion to the nearly $3 trillion coronavirus tab that Congress has created.”

Meadows and Mnuchin also added that a larger deal, or even a “skinny” extension for top priorities are President Trump’s preference – while the Commander in Chief is looking at executing an executive order which would include a payroll tax cut, eviction protections, an unemployment boost extension and flexibility on student loan repayments, according to the Times.

In short, Democrats are about to hand Trump a big optics win. And which liberal #resistance judge wants to be known as the person who took money out of Americans’ pockets by striking it down?

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

Busted Retailers Use Bankruptcy to Break Leases by the Thousands  

Widespread rejections pose challenges for struggling landlords

    At least 25 major retailers have filed for bankruptcy this year…Landlords, in turn, have their own mortgages to worry about, which were also underwritten with pre-pandemic assumptions about rent collections…Delinquencies on retail mortgages bundled into bonds climbed to 16% in July, from 3.8% in Januaryhttps://t.co/17C1LYhLvt

The NY Fed: Total Household Debt Decreased in Q2 2020, Marking First Decline Since 2014

Mortgage balances—the largest component of household debt—rose by $63 billion in the second quarter to $9.78 trillion. Mortgage originations, which include mortgage refinances, reached $846 billion, the highest volume seen since the refinance boom in 2013….

Credit card balances fell sharply by $76 billion in the second quarter. This was the steepest decline in card balances seen in the history of the data. Auto and student loan balances were roughly flat in the second quarter. In total, non-housing balances (including credit card, auto loan, student loan, and other debts) saw the largest drop in the history of this report, with an $86 billion decline.

https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/interactives/householdcredit/data/pdf/HHDC_2020Q2.pdf

Rep. Ken Buck says COVID-19 death toll is ‘inflated’      https://t.co/x3kzTmDJAe

‘Someone dies in a motorcycle accident, they test positive for COVID, and it’s listed as a COVID death and clearly isn’t a COVID death,’ Buck says. ‘And I’ve seen a number of examples of that.’…”I know there is a benefit to some of the health care providers that the death is listed as a COVID death. Any death is terrible, but we’ve got to be accurate if we’re going to learn how to deal with this disease.”…

Brian Wesbury @wesbury: Deaths per 1 million population (8/5/20), Worldometers. NJ – 1,793, NY – 1,686, MA – 1,256, CT – 1,245, United Kingdom – 677, Spain – 608, Sweden – 564, USA – 461, FL – 345 TX – 264. Forgive me for asking this question, but who failed the American people?

@JerryDunleavy: Absolutely pathetic & shameless for news outlets to parade New York & New Jersey — responsible for most total deaths & most deaths per capita respectively — as being models on how to defeat coronavirus. No. Their massive death spikes are exactly what we were told must be avoided.

Attorney @PekalaLaw: Chicago-area teen was added to list of Covid deaths. One problem. The teen didn’t die from COVID. And neither did 100+ others. Illinois has removed 100+ people wrongly added to list.  https://www.chicagotribune.com/coronavirus/ct-coronavirus-cook-teen-death-not-covid-20200805-7u7cutsvujbptl2cj4h5bbpyf4-story.html

Private Schools in Chicago Fielding Wave of Calls after CPS Goes With Remote Learning Plan

“We’ve had calls from people wanting their children to be engaged in in-class instruction,”… https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/private-schools-in-chicago-fielding-wave-of-calls-after-cps-goes-with-remote-learning-plan/ar-BB17CyUB

Senate Dems Want to Include Free Phone Calls for the Incarcerated in Next Relief Bill

https://saraacarter.com/senate-dems-want-to-include-free-phone-calls-for-the-incarcerated-in-next-relief-bill/

Twitter Official Who Announced Trump Campaign Account Suspension Is Former Kamala Harris Press Secretary [You can’t make this up!] https://t.co/KKENZmqmYL

The Fed Balance sheet contracted $3.795B for the week ended on Wed.  Currency swaps fell $11.81B.

https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/current/

Trump announces plan to delist Chinese firms that won’t comply with U.S. stock rules

Chinese companies have since 2013, as part of an Obama administration deal, been allowed to participate in U.S. stock and bond exchanges without having to fully comply with the same Sarbanes-Oxley Act accounting practices and risk disclosure required of American companies

https://justthenews.com/government/white-house/trump-china-sarbanes-oxley

Today – The July Employment Report will dictate ESU trading from its release at 8:30 ET until the NYSE open.  There is over a 400k gap between the NFP consensus and whisper number.  The consensus (1.5m) is the public number.  The whisper number is the private forecast (1.085m).

Traders in the know expect 1.085 NFP.  Therefore, it is difficult to predict the market reaction to the headline NFP number.  The neophyte day traders and algo usually react to the headline number; hedge funds and operators adjust to the whisper number.  Many traders believe stocks will rally on a good report and a bad report will induce politicians to agree to a stimulus deal.  We have no idea how the market will react to the July Employment Report.  But, traders will play for the usual Friday afternoon rally.

Trump cryptically on Thursday: So I have a lot of enemies out there- this may be the last time you’ll see me for a whilelot of very, very rich enemies.  But they are not happy with what I’m doing. But I figure we have one chance to do it and no other president’s going to do what I do.

https://twitter.com/KelemenCari/status/1291485863684108289

Ex-Colleagues See Durham Dropping Bombshells before Labor Day

Former assistant FBI director Chris Swecker, who knows Durham personally and has worked with the hard-nosed prosecutor on prior investigations… pointed out that Durham would risk throwing away 16 months of investigative work if he delayed action beyond the election “It would be make it very difficult for Biden’s appointees to undo his charges or bury the results of his probe,” he said. “John knows this and I fully expect he will take action before the election.”… The lack of media leaks coming from Durham’s office is another sign he is building a serious corruption case, Swecker said…

https://www.realclearinvestigations.com/articles/2020/08/06/ex-colleagues_see_durham_dropping_bombshells_before_labor_day_124753.html

@SaraCarterDC: Biden Suggests Diversity of Thought Doesn’t Exist in the African American Community Did you see this? – “What you all know, but most people don’t know,” Biden said. “Unlike the African American community with notable exceptions, the Latino community is an incredibly diverse community with incredibly different attitudes about different things.”  https://t.co/dm5rGCqpOp

@realDonaldTrump: Joe Biden: ‘Unlike the African American Community … the Latino Community Is an Incredibly Diverse Community‘… Wow! Joe Biden just lost the entire African American community…

DJT: “Joe Biden, this morning, totally disparaged and insulted the Black community.  What he said is incredible and I don’t know what is going on with him.  But, it was a very insulting statement… It was a great insult to the black community.”  https://twitter.com/TeamTrump/status/1291412462420602883

Biden again praises Latino diversity as being ‘unlike the African American community’

Joe Biden doubled down on his praise of “diversity” within the Latino community “unlike” the Black community… Speaking virtually on Thursday to the National Association of Latino Elected Officialsconference …”Now what I mean full diversity, unlike the African American community and many other communities, you’re from everywhere,” Biden explained. “You’re from Europe, from the tip of South America, all the way to our border in Mexico, and the Caribbean. And different backgrounds, different ethnicities, but all Latinos. We’re gonna get a chance to do that if we win in November.”…https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-latino-diversity-african-american-community

@JoeBiden last night: Earlier today, I made some comments about diversity in the African American and Latino communities that I want to clarify. In no way did I mean to suggest the African American community is a monolith—not by identity, not on issues, not at all.

Ex-Bush spokesman @AriFleischer: Joe Biden, at the National Association of Black Journalists today, attempting to show off his cognitive skills, comes across almost totally incoherent. This is hard to watch: “Anyway, I’m very willing to let the American public judge my physical mental fill, fitness… My physical as well as my mental fill, fitness,”…  https://twitter.com/AriFleischer/status/1291132556663029765

The Babylon Bee [parody] 1-yr ago: Biden Clarifies: ‘I Like All Races, Even the Bad Ones’

https://babylonbee.com/news/biden-apologizes-for-racist-gaffe-i-like-all-races-even-the-bad-ones

The Babylon Bee does it again: Biden Campaign Cancels Trip Upstairs

Biden had planned to go upstairs, get a bite to eat… https://babylonbee.com/news/biden-cancels-trip-upstairs

Team DJT should consider resurrecting LBJ’s Daisy Ad (1964), which was the first negative political ad in TV history.  The ad ran just once.  Its intent was to show that Goldwater couldn’t be trusted with nukes.

https://www.c-span.org/video/?c4738301/lyndon-johnson-1964-daisy-ad

NY AG Letitia James gave DJT and the GOP a huge gift on Thursday by suing to dissolve the NRA.

Fox: The Washington, D.C. Attorney General’s office also sued the NRA on Thursday based on similar allegations… https://www.foxnews.com/politics/new-york-ag-dissolve-nra-lawsuit

Politico’s @hollyotterbein: Some Pennsylvania Democratic elected officials are panicked about the NRA lawsuit’s effect on the presidential race[With escalating crime!] One told me it was an “October surprise”: “This is the equivalent of Alabama AG suing to dissolve Planned Parenthood for the left.”

@realDonaldTrump: Just like Radical Left New York is trying to destroy the NRA, if Biden becomes President your GREAT SECOND AMENDMENT doesn’t have a chance. Your guns will be taken away

@KamVTV: The National Rifle Association is fighting back against a lawsuit filed today by New York’s attorney general by submitting its own civil suit against state officials.

Crime is soaring because some big-city prosecutors refuse to charge or incarcerate violent offenders.

@CWBChicago: Bond court — Man’s charged with Class X felony aggravated battery by discharging firearm. (He shot someone). The court’s pre-trial services officer, responsible for assessing defendant’s risk, recommends he be released without restrictions.  Judge Navarro… puzzled by the whole scenario, addresses prosecutors: You’re charging him with aggravated battery with a firearm and you’re not asking me to hold him without bailProsecutor: That’s correct.  Navarro: This shooting was captured on surveillance video.  $100K bond. $10,000 required to get out of jail. No electronic monitoring order.

Evangelicals Hold Pro-Trump Event in Las Vegas Casino to Avoid Nevada Church Restrictions

https://hannity.com/media-room/last-resort-evangelicals-hold-pro-trump-event-in-las-vegas-casino-to-avoid-nevada-church-restrictions/

@JerryDunleavy: Andrew Weissmann, former key member of Mueller team, is openly calling for DOJ employees to resist US Attorney John Durham’s investigation into the Trump-Russia investigators & US Attorney John Bash’s unmasking inquiry. This narrative setting has made its way from NYT to MSNBC.

@AWeissmann_: As Rachel Maddow said tonight, the NYT piece, below, notes DOJ personnel have a duty — and a variety of means — to resist any effort by Barr to take impermissible political actions prior to the election.  [What does Weissmann fear?]

end

Let us close out the week with this offering courtesy of Greg Hunter:

 

Comey Went Rogue, Trump Censored, Dem Cities Failing

By Greg Hunter On August 7, 2020

Former Deputy Attorney General in the Obama Administration threw former FBI Director James Comey under the bus when Sally Yates testified on Capitol Hill this week.   Comey went “rogue” when sending FBI agents to the White House to entrap General Michael Flynn in the first few days of the Trump Administration, according Yates.  This is a stunning admission in what appears to be an attempt by Yates to distance herself from the massive multi-faceted coup plot to remove President Donald Trump from Office.  Yates admitted she would not have signed a FISA warrant to spy on the Trump Administration if she knew it was based on a phony dossier paid for by Hillary Clinton.  It was her duty to understand what the evidence was before she signed it, and ignorance is not much of a defense.  The major news outlets ignored this earth shaking testimony or massively downplayed it.

The tech psyop continues with the removal of a Trump interview from Facebook and Twitter.  They claim it was Covid-19 “misinformation.”  The Trump campaign says it was backed up by science, but it did not matter.  Big Tech is increasingly censoring any conservative opinions or speech.  This is the first time President Trump was removed this way.  It is surely a sign of desperation by the left in their quest to not allow a second Trump term.

You have all heard of the riots and destruction in Democrat controlled cities.  The mainstream press has become a laughing stock every time it says the “protests are mostly peaceful.”  It’s a joke, and anyone can see the destruction taking place, including property owners who are selling for a loss and moving out of Democrat disasters with exploding crime rates.  Actress Jennifer Lawrence is a high profile Dem who just sold her New York City penthouse apartment for more than a $5 million dollar loss.  She is leaving failing Democrat controlled New York City for a safe place even if she has to take a huge loss on her home.

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he talks about these stories and more in the Weekly News Wrap-Up

-END-

Well that is all for today

I will see you MONDAY night.

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