SEPT 4//BIG VICTORY OUR US GOLD BUGS AS OUR BANKER FRIENDS COULD NOT COVER MUCH OF THEIR BANKING SHORTFALL ON THIS 3RD CONSECUTIVE DAY OF RAIDS: GOLD DOWN $3.80 TO $1927.40//SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS TO $26.57//ALMOST 10 TONNES OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPT IN GOLD AND 52.710 MILLION OZ FOR SILVER//ANDREW MAGUIRE PART II A MUST VIEW..//CHINA VS USA//TURKEY VS GREECE/CORONAVIRUS UPDATE//PHONY JOBS REPORT//USA ECONOMIC HARDSHIP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//SWAMP STORIES//

GOLD::$1927.40  DOWN $3.80   The quote is London spot price

 

 

 

 

 

Silver:$26.57 DOWN $.15   London spot price ( cash market)

Yesterday I wrote the following to you:

“We are now in the middle of the 3 or 4 day whacking of our precious metals. Tomorrow is the jobs report and they generally whack around this announcement.  Also Labour day is  Monday and the day following is another day that they whack.  No doubt the bankers are worried about the new physical exchange being developed in London through the auspices of the LME.  The bankers need to be onside and they will do anything to get the speculators off their backs so that they can cover””

I guess I was right.  You could see the set up as the crooks whacked Wednesday and Thursday hoping for a climax day on Friday with a phony jobs report. The stock market plunge got in the way of the crooks as well as our Londoners who asked for delivery on exercised EFP’s.

In my report, you will see that the crooks could not cover anything as the demand for gold is just too great.  The OI on both exchanges (EFP + comex) rose despite the whack.  Actually for the two raids, the OI’s on both rose and thus this is a failure for our banks

 

In silver, we got a small OI loss

I would be willing to bet that the preliminary no. released at midnight tonight will also show a gain in oi in gold. Our banker friends are looking into an abyss!

H

 

 

 

 

 

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Closing access prices:  London spot

i)Gold : $1933.00  LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

 

ii)SILVER:  $26.86//LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

CLOSING FUTURES PRICES:  KEY MONTHS

 

 

OCT GOLD:  $1926.90  CLOSE 1.30 PM//   SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE OCT /:   : $0.50//BACKWARD//

 

 

DEC. GOLD  $1935.90   CLOSE 1.30 PM      SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE DEC   $4.60/ CONTANGO   ($7.40 BELOW NORMAL CONTANGO)

 

 

CLOSING SILVER FUTURE MONTH

 

SILVER SEPT COMEX CLOSE;   $26.58…1:30 PM.//SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE SEPT//  :    ( 1 cent contango//2 CENTS BELOW NORMAL contango)

SILVER DECEMBER  CLOSE:     $26.77  1:30  PM SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE DEC.       : 20  CENTS PER OZ  CONTANGO ( 8 CENTS ABOVE NORMAL CONTANGO)

 

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

 

COMEX DATA

 

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

receiving today: 0/59

issued: 0

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: SEPTEMBER 2020 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,927.600000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 09/03/2020 DELIVERY DATE: 09/08/2020
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
135 H RAND 1
226 C DIRECT ACCESS 1
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 6
624 C BOFA SECURITIES 2
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 22
657 H MORGAN STANLEY 6
686 C INTL FCSTONE 1
709 C BARCLAYS 11
737 C ADVANTAGE 35 2
800 C MAREX SPEC 22 3
905 C ADM 6
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 59 59
MONTH TO DATE: 3,183

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  AUGUST CONTRACT: 59 NOTICE(S) FOR 5900 OZ  (0.1835 tonnes)

 

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  3183 NOTICES FOR 318,300 OZ  (9.900 tonnes) 

 

 

 

SILVER

 

 

440 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 2,200,000  OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month: 8455 for 42.275 MILLION oz

 

BITCOIN MORNING QUOTE  $10424  UP 276

 

BITCOIN AFTERNOON QUOTE.: $10,531 UP 427

 

GLD AND SLV INVENTORIES:

WITH GOLD DOWN $3.80 AND NO PHYSICAL TO BE FOUND ANYWHERE:

WITH ALL REFINERS CLOSED//MEXICO ORDERING ALL MINES SHUT:   WHERE ARE THEY GETTING THE “PHYSICAL?

NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD…

 

 

 

GLD: 1,250.04 TONNES OF GOLD//

 

 

WITH SILVER DOWN $0.15  TODAY: AND WITH NO SILVER AROUND:

WE HAD ANOTHER CRIMINAL PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 3.631 MILLION OZ//

 

RESTING SLV INVENTORY TONIGHT:

 

SLV: 564.799  MILLION OZ./

 

 

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

 

 

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IN SILVER THE COMEX OI FELL BY A SMALLER THAN EXPECTED  2606 CONTRACTS FROM 163,745 DOWN TO 161,139, AND FURTHER FROM OUR NEW RECORD OF 244,710, (FEB 25/2020. THE  LOSS IN OI OCCURRED WITH OUR VERY STRONG $0.50 FALL IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. IT SEEMS THAT THE LOSS IN COMEX OI IS  DUE TO SOME BANKER  SILVER SHORT COVERING..  COUPLED AGAINST A STRONG EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE, SOME  MINOR LONG LIQUIDATION, A HUGE INCREASE IN SILVER OZ  STANDING  AT THE COMEX FOR SEPT..  WE HAD A SMALL NET LOSS IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 1162 CONTRACTS  (SEE CALCULATIONS BELOW).

 

 

 

 

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A STRONG AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE:   SEP 0;  DEC:  1444, MARCH  0 FOR ZERO ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  1444 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 1444 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 1444 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 7.220 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE $0.50 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

7.32     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

2.630     MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOV.

20.970   MILLION OZ  FINAL STANDING IN DEC

5.075     MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JAN

1.480    MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN FEB

23.005  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAR

4.660  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR APRIL

45.220 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAY

2.205  MILLION OF FINAL STANDING FOR JUNE

86.470 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JULY.

6.475 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN AUGUST

52.710 MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT

 

THURSDAY, AGAIN OUR CROOKS USED COPIOUS PAPER IN ORDER TO LIQUIDATE SILVER’S PRICE…AND THEY WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL $0.50) ).. AND, OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS  WERE  SOMEWHAT SUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE SOME SILVER LONGS. THE RAID YESTERDAY WAS ORCHESTRATED TO REMOVE SPECULATORS FROM THEIR LONG POSITIONS.   WE ALSO HAD  ii)  A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS 2) A STRONG GAIN IN SILVER OZ STANDING  FOR SEPTEMBER,  AND 3) SOME LONG LIQUIDATION.  YOU CAN BET THE FARM THAT OUR BANKERS  ARE DESPERATE TO LIQUIDATE THEIR HUGE SHORT POSITIONS IN SILVER..

 

 

 

 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

SEPT.

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY /FOR MONTH OF SEPT:

4991 CONTRACTS (FOR 4 TRADING DAY(S) TOTAL 4991 CONTRACTS) OR 24.955 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1247 CONTRACTS OR 6.238 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF SEPT: 24.955 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 3.557% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

 

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2020 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          1,411.04 MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2020 EFP TOTALS SO FAR: 181.61 MILLION OZ

FEB 2020 EFP’S TOTAL :  ……     259.600 MILLION OZ

MARCH EFP’S …..                     452.280 MILLION OZ  //TOTALS//AND A NEW RECORD FOR THE MONTH)

APRIL EFP                               95.355 MILLION OZ.  (EX. FOR PHYSICALS BECOMING A LOT LESS)

MAY EFP FINAL:                     77.27 MILLION OZ

JUNE EFP                              71.15 MILLION OZ.

JULY EFP                               133.95 MILLION OZ/ (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS STARTING TO RISE EXPONENTIALLY AGAIN)

AUGUST EFP                         127.46 MILLION OZ (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS STARTING TO DECREASE AGAIN)

SEPT EFP                                24.955 MILLION OZ

 

 

 

RESULT: WE HAD A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 2606, WITH OUR HUGE $0.50 FALL IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ///THURSDAY AS ONE A NET BASIS, FEW LONGS  LEFT THE SILVER ARENA.…THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 1444 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER

 

TODAY WE LOST A SMALL SIZED 1162 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES (WITH OUR $0.50 LOSS IN PRICE)//

 

 

 

THE TALLY//EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

i.e 1444 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH A CONSIDERABLE SIZED DECREASE OF 2606 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND HAPPENED WITH OUR $0.50 CENT FALL IN PRICE OF SILVER/AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $26.84 // THURSDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY. 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 0.821 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 117% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW AUGUST  DELIVERY MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 440 NOTICE(S) FOR 2,220,000 OZ OF SILVER.

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018. AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.70//TODAY’S RECORD OF 244,705 WAS SET WITH A PRICE OF: 18.91 (FEB 25/2020)

 

.

 

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 10.025 MILLION OZ/ SEPT 43.030 MILLION OZ//OCT: 7.665 MILLION OZ//   NOV: 2.630 MILLION OZ//DEC:  20.970 MILLION OZ; JAN:  5.075 MILLION OZ.//FEB 1.480 MILLION OZ//MAR: 23.005 MILLION OZ/APRIL 4.660 MILLION OZ//MAY  45.220 MILLION OZ//JUNE: 2.205 MILLION OZ// JULY 86.470 million oz//AUGUST 6.475 MILLION OZ//SEPT. 52.710 MILLION OZ//
  2. THE  RECORD PRIOR TO TODAY WAS SET IN FEB 25/2018:  244,710 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $18.90//.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

 

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 

 

GOLD

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST SURPRISINGLY FELL BY A TINY SIZED 481 CONTRACTS TO 548,934 AND FURTHER FROM OUR NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE SMALL SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI OCCURRED DESPITE OUR CONSIDERABLE FALL IN PRICE  OF $7.50 /// COMEX GOLD TRADING// THURSDAY//WE HAD ATTEMPTED BUT FAILED  BANKER SHORT COVERING AS WE HAD  A STRONG GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES… NOBODY  LEFT THE GOLD ARENA.  WE ALSO HAD A STRONG ADVANCE IN TONNAGE STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR SEPTEMBER ACCOMPANYING A SMALL EXCHANGE FOR  PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. THIS ALL HAPPENED WITH OUR  FALL IN PRICE OF $7.50

 

 

WE HAD A VOLUME OF 2    4 -GC CONTRACTS//OPEN INTEREST  136//  (2400 OZ WAS DELIVERED ON FRIDAY FROM THE ENHANCED GOLD INVENTORY)…

 

WE GAINED A SMALL SIZED 1504 CONTRACTS  (4.678 TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

 

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

 

 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A SMALL SIZED 1985 CONTRACTS:

CONTRACT .; AUG 0 AND OCT: 210 DEC: 1775; JUNE: 0  ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO//TOTAL: 1985.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 548,934. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EXCHANGE DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 1504 CONTRACTS: 481 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 1985 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 1504 CONTRACTS OR 4.678 TONNES. THURSDAY, WE HAD A  LOSS OF $7.50 IN GOLD TRADING……

AND WITH THAT LOSS IN  PRICE, WE HAD A SMALL SIZED GAIN IN  TOTAL/TWO EXCHANGES GOLD TONNAGE OF 4.678 TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE (IT FELL $7.50).  WE HAD ATTEMPTED BUT FAILED BANKER SHORT COVERING  OPERATION  WITH SMALL ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGES FOR PHYSICAL. THE BANKERS COULD NOT FLEECE ANY OF OUR SPECULATOR LONGS DESPITE THE SECOND RAID IN A ROW .

 

 

 

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:

WE HAD A SMALL SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (1985) ACCOMPANYING THE SMALL SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI  (481 OI): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES:  1504 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1 )ATTEMPTED AND FAILED BANKER SHORT COVERING ,2.)A STRONG ADVANCE IN  STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR THE FRONT SEPT. MONTH,  3) NO  LONG LIQUIDATION;  4) SMALL COMEX OI LOSS AND 5) SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL  AND  …ALL OF THIS WAS COUPLED WITH OUR  LOSS IN GOLD PRICE TRADING//THURSDAY//$7.50.

 

 

WE ARE BEGINNING TO WITNESS A LACK OF EXCHANGE FOR GOLD PHYSICALS UNDERWRITTEN DUE TO PREMIUMS STARTING TO REAPPEAR IN THE FUTURE PRICE OF GOLD VS LONDON SPOT. THE COST TO THE BANKERS IS JUST TOO GREAT TO ENGAGE IN THESE VEHICLES ONCE THIS OCCURS.

THE FACT THAT WE ARE CONTINUALLY SEEING A DROP IN COMEX OPEN INTEREST AND VOLUMES COUPLED WITH LESS EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS PROBABLY MEANS THAT OUR LONGS ARE ALREADY DEPARTING NEW YORK FOR THE NEW PHYSICAL PLATFORM AT LONDON’S LME.

 

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS//OUTLINE

SPREADING OPERATIONS/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD  (WE SWITCH OVER TO SILVER ON OCT  1)

 

 

OUR SPREADING OPERATION HAS NOW SWITCHED INTO GOLD…..

SPREADING OPERATION FOR OUR NEWCOMERS:

 

FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS:

 

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED IN GOLD  AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF OCT.

 

 

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEW, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE SPREADERS AND THE CRIMINAL ELEMENT BEHIND IT:

 HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

 

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR SILVER..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR GOLD.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

 

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

.

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO GOLD AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT. HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT FOR GOLD:

 

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF SEPT. BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN GOLD WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

 

 

 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2020 INCLUDING TODAY

SEPT.

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF SEPT : 5631, CONTRACTS OR 563,100, oz OR 17.51 TONNES (4 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 1407 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 4 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 17.51 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2019, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 17.51/3550 x 100% TONNES =0.493% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD HAS DISSIPATED THIS MONTHTHE COST TO THE BANKERS TO CARRY THESE CONTRACTS IN LONDON IS BECOMING TOO GREAT FOR THEM.

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2020 TO DATE   3,422.28  TONNES

JANUARY 2220 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE; : 570.19 TONNES

FEB 2020 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE :            653.78 TONNES

MARCH TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE                1,098.93  TONNES  (*AND A NEW ALL TIME RECORD ISSUANCE//22 DAYS)

APRIL TOTAL EFP. ISSUANCE:               243.45  TONNES  (EFP ISSUANCE BECOMING A LOT LESS)

MAY TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                     248.68 TONNES (EFP ISSUANCE STILL LOW// PREMIUM COST TO THE BANKERS IS HUGE..SO ISSUANCE IS LESS)

JUNE TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                     192.06 TONNES

JULY TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;                       313.09 TONNES ..(EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS REVERSE COURSE AND ARE NOW INCREASING!)

AUGUST TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;                 150.78 TONNES  FINAL (AGAIN: RETREATING IN NUMBERS)

SEPT TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                       17.51 TONNES  (AGAIN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL NUMBERS IN RETREAT)

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

 

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 2606 CONTRACTS FROM 163,745, DOWN TO 161,139 AND FURTHER FROM OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 3/4 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

THE CONSIDERABLE SIZED LOSS IN OI SILVER COMEX WAS PRIMARILY DUE TO 1)   SOME BANKER SHORT COVERING  , 2) A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (SEE BELOW), 3) A STRONG GAIN IN OUNCES STANDING FOR SILVER AT THE COMEX FOR SEPT.,  AND  4) SOME LONG LIQUIDATION, 

 

 

 

 

EFP ISSUANCE 1444 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 SEPT: 0 AND DEC. 1444 AND MARCH:  0  ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1444 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI LOSS OF 2606 CONTRACTS TO THE 1444 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A SMALL SIZED LOSS OF 1162 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 5.810 MILLION  OZ, OCCURRED WITH OUR 50 CENT  LOSS IN PRICE///

 

 

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL..THE EVIDENCE IS CLEAR: HUGE AMOUNTS OF PHYSICAL STANDING FOR BOTH  SILVER AND GOLD .

(report Harvey)

 

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)FRIDAY MORNING/ THURSDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 29.61 POINTS OR 0.87%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 312.15 POINTS OR 1.25%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 260.10 POINTS OR 1.11%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 3.65%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.8408 /Oil UP TO 4173 dollars per barrel for WTI and 44.30 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 6.8408 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.8443 TRADE TALKS STALL//CORONAVIRUS//PANDEMIC//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

 

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST SURPRISINGLY FELL BY BY JUST A TINY SIZED 481 CONTRACTS TO 548,934 MOVING FURTHER FROM  OUR  RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020).  AND ALL OF THIS TINY COMEX DECREASE OCCURRED DESPITE OUR CONSIDERABLE  LOSS OF $7.50 IN GOLD PRICING /THURSDAY’S COMEX TRADING/). WE ALSO HAD A SMALL EFP ISSUANCE (1985 CONTRACTS),.  THUS,  WE HAD  1) ATTEMPTED BUT FAILED BANKER SHORT COVERING AS WE HAD A FAIR GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 1504 CONTRACTS,…….. , PLUS WE HAD 2)  ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION  AND 3)  A GOOD  INCREASE IN TONNAGE  STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX//SEPT. DELIVERY MONTH (SEE BELOW) …  AS WE ENGINEERED A FAIR SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 1504 CONTRACTS MENTIONED ABOVEWE HAVE LATELY WITNESSED THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL….. AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. THE COMEX IS THE SCENE FOR AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS EXERCISE THEIR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS AND TURN THEM INTO REAL METAL.

 

 

 

(SEE BELOW)

 

 

WE  HAD 2    4 -GC VOLUME//open interest RISES TO 136

 

 

 

 

 

 

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A SMALL SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 1985 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:   OCT: 210  DEC 1775; JUNE// ’21 0 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1985  CONTRACTS.

YOU WILL FIND THAT WHEN WE HAVE A GOOD PREMIUM IN THE FUTURES/SPOT, THEN THE NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS DECLINE IN NUMBERS.  THE COST IS JUST TOO MUCH FOR THEM TO ISSUE. TODAY THAT PREMIUM WAS SMALL AND THUS A LITTLE MORE THAN USUAL OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WERE ISSUED.

 

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 1504 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 1985 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE LOST A TINY SIZED 481 COMEX CONTRACTS.  THE BANKERS ARE NOW LOATHE TO SUPPLY THE SHORT PAPER.  THEY CONTINUE TO ISSUE  SMALLER AMOUNTS OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL AS THE COST ON CARRYING SERIAL FORWARDS IN LONDON IS TOO GREAT FOR THEM. WE HAD ATTEMPTED AND FAILED BANKER SHORT COVERING  AS THE BANKERS HAVE BEEN CAUGHT TERRIBLY OFFSIDE ON THEIR SHORT POSITIONS..AND THUS THE REASON FOR OUR CONSTANT RAIDS, INCLUDING WEDNESDAY’S BIG WHACK AND THURSDAY’S RAID. SURPRISINGLY NOBODY LEFT THE GOLD ARENA AS WE HAD A STRONG GAIN IN OI ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. (SEE BELOW)

 

 

 

 

 

THE BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT FELL $7.50).  AND, THEY WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING ANY LONGS AS BANKER SHORT COVERING 

WAS THE NAME OF THE GAME: 

 THE TOTAL GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES REGISTERED  4.678 TONNES  WITH THE GOOD FALL IN  PRICE

 

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES :: 1504, CONTRACTS OR 150400 OZ OR 4/678 TONNES.

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT COMMODITY FUTURES OPEN INTEREST SHOULD APPROXIMATE 3% OF TOTAL PRODUCTION.  IN GOLD THE WORLD PRODUCES AROUND 3500 TONNES PER YEAR BUT ONLY 2200 TONNES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE WEST (THUS EXCLUDING RUSSIA, CHINA ETC..WHO KEEP 100% OF THEIR PRODUCTION)

THUS IN GOLD WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:  548,934 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS X 100 OZ PER CONTRACT = 54.89 MILLION OZ/32,150 OZ PER TONNE =  1707 TONNES

THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST REPRESENTS 1707/2200 OR 77.60% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF GOLD.

 

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 297,580 contracts// volume fair

 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  318,110 contracts//  volume: fair  //most of our traders have left for London

 

 

SEPT 4 /2020

SEPT. GOLD CONTRACT MONTH

INITIAL STANDING FOR SEPT GOLD

 

 

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
738.470 oz
Brinks
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz 38,580.000 oz

Loomis

 

1200 kilobars

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

547,853.000

OZ

BRINKS

 

17040  1/2

KILOBARS

No of oz served (contracts) today
59 notice(s)
 5900 OZ
(0.1835 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
65 contracts
(6500 oz)
0.2021 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
3183 notices
318,300 OZ
9.900 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

We had 1 deposit into the dealer

i) Into the dealer Loomis:  38,580.000 oz

(1200 kilobars)

total deposit: 38,580.000 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had 0 deposit into the customer account

 

 

 

 

total customer deposit:  nil    oz

 

 

we had 1 gold withdrawals from the customer account:

i) Out of Brinks:  739.470 oz

 

 

total withdrawals;  739.470    oz

 

 

 

 

 

We had 1  kilobar transactions  +

 

ADJUSTMENTS: 0 //

 

 

 

 

The front month of SEPT registered a total of 124 contracts for a loss of 818 contracts.  We had 891 notices filed on Thursday, so we gained a strong  73 contracts or an additional 7300 oz will stand for delivery in this non active month of Sept.

Oct LOST 121`9  contracts DOWN to 61,649  (HARDLY ANYBODY LEFT THE ARENA WITH OUR FRONT MONTH).  November gained 11 contracts to stand at 14.

The big December contract GAINED 384 contracts UP to 406,220 contracts…(NOBODY LEFT HERE AS WELL)

 

 

 

 

 

 

We had 59 notices filed today for  5900 oz

 

FOR THE SEPT 2020 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and  0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 59 contract(s) of which 0  notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the SEPT /2020. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (3183) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  SEPT (124 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today (59 x 100 oz per contract) equals 324,800 OZ OR 10.1026 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this active month of JUNE

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the SEPT/2020 contract month:

No of notices filed so far (3183, x 100 oz + (124 OI) for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (59) x 100 oz which equals 324,800 oz standing OR 10.1026 TONNES in this  active delivery month. This is a HUGE amount for gold standing for a SEPT delivery month (a NON active delivery month).

we gained 73 contracts or an additional 7300 oz will try their luck searching for metal on this side of the pond.

 

 

THE NAME OF THE GAME TODAY IS  BANKER SHORT COVERING AS FINALLY FEAR BECAME THEIR CENTRAL FOCUS. YOU CAN VISUALIZE THIS LAST NIGHT AND TODAY WITH GOLD’S STRONG ADVANCE IN TUESDAY’S COMEX. TODAY ATTEMPTED BANKER SHORT COVERING WHICH FAILED WITH THE HIGHER PRICES.

 

 

 

 

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:  BRINKS

 

144,088.952 oz NOW PLEDGED  JAN 21.2020/HSBC  5.4807 TONNES

 

42,548.308.00 PLEDGED  APRIL 3/2020: SCOTIA:            1.3234 tonnes

deleted Int. Delaware pledge July 7  (600 tonnes)

261,955.892 oz  (some deleted august 3)         JPM  8.1479 TONNES

610,238.285 oz pledged June 12/2020 Brinks/   july 2/july 21               19.017 tonnes

63,187.561 oz Pledged August 21/regular account 1.965 tonnes jpm

total pledged gold:  1,122,018.988 oz                                     34.89 tonnes

 

 

 

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES…. WE HAVE 466.06 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS i.e. 10.1026 tonnes

CALCULATION OF REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SETTLED UPON:

total registered or dealer  16,150,968.560 oz or 502.36 tonnes
which  includes the following:
a) pledged gold held at HSBC   which cannot settled upon   144,088.952 oz x ( 4.4817 TONNES)//
b) pledged gold held at JPMorgan (SOME  DELETED JUNE 24 2020/SOME JULY 9; SOME JULY 22/July 03/august 3) which cannot be settled upon:  261,955.892 oz (or 8.1479 tonnes)
total pledged gold:
b 2 pledged gold JPMorgan august 21/2020;  63,187.561 oz  (1.965 tonnes)
c)  pledged gold at Scotia: 1.3234 tonnes or 42,548.308 oz which cannot be settled  (1.3234 tonnes)
d) pledged gold at Manfra:  DELETED  MAY 26.2020
e) pledged gold at int.Del.    DELETED:   JULY 7.2020
f) pledged gold at Brinks:  DELETED july 2 and july 21
g) pledged gold at Brinks: 610,238.285 oz added which cannot be settled:  18.980 tonnes
total weight of pledged:  1,122,018.988 oz or 34.89 tonnes
thus:
registered gold that can be used to settle upon:  14,983,950.0  (466,06 tonnes)
true registered gold  (total registered – pledged tonnes  14,983,950.0 (466.06 tonnes)
total eligible gold:  20,754,870.954 oz (645.56 tonnes)

total registered, pledged  and eligible (customer) gold  36,905,839.514 oz 1,147.92 tonnes (INCLUDES 4 GC GOLD)

total 4 GC gold:   126.34 tonnes

total gold net of 4 GC:  1021,58 tonnes

 

end

 

I have compiled  data with respect to registered (or dealer) gold taken on first day notice for each of the past 24 months

The data begins on first day notice for the May month taken on the last day of July 2018. and it continues to present day.

 

I then took, how many deliveries were recorded by the CME for each and every month.  I also included for reference the price of gold on first day notice.

 

The first graph is a logarithmic  graph and the second graph, linear.

You can see the huge explosion of registered gold at the comex along with deliveries.

 

 

THE DATA AND GRAPHS:

 

 

 

THE GOLD COMEX SEEMS TO BE  UNDER SEVERE ASSAULT FOR PHYSICAL

END

SEPT 4/2020

And now for the wild silver comex results

And now for the wild silver comex results

 

INITIAL STANDINGS

SEPT. SILVER COMEX CONTRACT MONTH//INITIAL STANDINGS

Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 627,957.761 oz
CNT
Loomis
Delaware
manfra

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
779,636.720 oz
Scotia

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
2,296,397.620 oz
Brinks
JPMorgan
Scotia
No of oz served today (contracts)
440
CONTRACT(S)
(2,200,,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
2087 contracts
 10,435,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  8455 contracts

42,275,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
We had 1 deposit into the dealer:
i) Into the dealer Scotia:  779,636.720 oz

total dealer deposits: 779,636.720     oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

 

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

 

we had 3 deposits into the customer account

i)into JPMorgan: 1,485,900.200 oz

ii) Into Brinks: 605,567.040 oz

 

iii) Into Scotia:  204,930.380 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017, 2018 and onward, has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 171.097 million oz of  total silver inventory or 48.64% of all official comex silver. (171.097 million/351.67 million

 

total customer deposits today: 2,296,397.620   oz

we had 4 withdrawals:

i) Out of CNT:  16,423.300 oz

ii) Out of Delaware: 2938.420 oz

iii) Out of Loomis:  5029.000 oz

iv) Out of Manfra: 605,562.04

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total withdrawals;  627,957.761    oz

We had 2 adjustments//both customer to dealer

i) CNT:  4904.95

ii)JPMorgan:  492,697.100

 

 

 

Total dealer(registered) silver: 140.358 million oz

total registered and eligible silver:  351.67 million oz

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

the front month of SEPTEMBER registered an open interest of 2527 contracts thus losing 187 contracts.  We had 292 notices filed on THURSDAY so we GAINED BACK A GOOD 105 contracts or an additional 525,000 oz will stand in this active delivery month of September  as they refused to morph into London based forwards and negate a fiat bonus.  Our London boys are ready to exercise these EFP’s and they will turn them into real physical metal as we now have a full frontal attack on both of our two precious metals.

 

Oct saw another GAIN of 21 contract to stand at 775.November gained 0 contract to stand at 14,

The big December contract month saw its OI FALL by 2926 contracts DOWN to 140,1498

 

 

The total number of notices filed today for the SEPT 2020. contract month is represented by 440 contract(s) FOR 2,220,000, oz

 

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in SEPT we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 8455 x 5,000 oz = 42,275,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of SEPT(2527) and the number of notices served upon today 440 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

 

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the SEPT/2019 contract month: 8455 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of SEPT  (2527)- number of notices served upon today (440) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the SEPT contract month.equals 52,710,000 oz. ..VERY STRONG FOR AN ACTIVE MONTH.

We gained a strong 105 contracts or AN ADDITIONAL 525,000 oz. WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY IN THIS ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH, AS THEY LOOK FOR METAL ON THis SIDE OF THE POND!

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME : 110,439 CONTRACTS // volume huge//raid orchestrated by the BIS

 

 

 

FOR YESTERDAY: 132,600.  ,CONFIRMED VOLUME//volume huge  

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 132,600 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 0.663 billion  OZ 94.7% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

 

NPV for Sprott

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV  RISES TO- 2.98% ((SEPT 4/2020)

2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV  RISES TO -0.59% to NAV:   (SEPT 4/2020 )

Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/2.98%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA

3. SPROTT CEF .A   FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 20.36 TRADING 19.86///NEGATIVE 2.46

END

 

 

 

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

SEPT 4//WITH GOLD DOWN $3.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1250.04 TONNES

SEPT 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.50 ON THIS 2ND DAY OF A 3 DAY RAID:  NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1250.04 TONNES

SEPT 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $34.00 TODAY, WE HAVE 2 SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: 2 WITHDRAWALS OF .87 TONNES AND.59 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1250.04 TONNES

SEPT 1/WITH GOLD UP $7.10 TODAY, WE HAVE NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1251.50 TONNES

AUGUST 31//WITH GOLD UP $5.90 TODAY/WE HAD NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1251.50 TONNES/

AUGUST 28/WITH GOLD UP $38.20 TODAY, WE SURPRISINGLY HAD A .59 TONNE WITHDRAWAL//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1251.50 TONNES

AUGUST 27/WITH GOLD DOWN 17.50 TODAY: WE HAD A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A DEPOSIT OF 3.24 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY REST AT 1252.09 TONNES

AUGUST 26/WITH GOLD UP $26.70  TODAY/  WE  HAD A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.53 TONNES FROM THE GLD//RESTS AT 1248.85 TONNES

AUGUST 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.60 TODAY, WE  HAD NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//RESTS AT 1252.38 TONNES

AUGUST 24//WITH GOLD DOWN $7.20 TODAY: WE HAD NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: /INVENTORY RESTS AT 1258.38 TONNES

AUGUST 21//WITH GOLD DOWN $.40 TODAY: WE HAD NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: /INVENTORY RESTS AT 1252.38 TONNES

AUGUST 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $23.45 TODAY: WE HAD NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: .//INVENTORY REST AT  1252.38 TONNES

AUGUST 19//WITH GOLD DOWN $39.65 TODAY: WE HAD NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1252.38 TONNES

AUGUST 18/WITH GOLD UP $14.60 TODAY: WE HAD A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 4.09 TONNES//GLD INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 1252.38 TONNES

AUGUST 17/WITH GOLD UP $46.30  TODAY:  SURPRISINGLY WE HAD A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A WITHDRAWAL  OF 3.8 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1248.29 TONNES

AUGUST 14/ WITH GOLD DOWN $19.45 TODAY: SURPRISINGLY, WE HAD A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A DEPOSIT OF 1.46 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1252.63 TONNES.

AUGUST 13/WITH GOLD UP $23.15 TODAY: WE HAD A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: SURPRISINGLY A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 7.30 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1250.63 TONNES

AUGUST 12/ WITH GOLD UP $1.00 TODAY: WE HAD A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.19 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1257.93 TONNES

AUGUST 11//WITH GOLD DOWN $92.40 TODAY, WE HAD NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1262.12 TONNES.

AUGUST 10/WITH GOLD UP $11.35  TODAY, WE HAD A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.84 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1262.12 TONNES

AUGUST 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $38.30 TODAY, WE HAVE NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1267.96 TONNES

AUGUST 6/WITH GOLD UP $20.45 TODAY, WE HAVE ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 10.23 TONNES INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1267.96  TONNES//

AUGUST 5/WITH GOLD UP $ 33.75 TODAY, WE HAVE A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/A DEPOSIT OF 9.35 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1257.73 TONNES

AUGUST 4//WITH GOLD UP $31.75 TODAY, WE HAVE A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A DEPOSIT OF 6.48 TONNES/GLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 1248.38 TONNES

AUGUST 3/WITH GOLD UP $2.20 TODAY, WE HAVE NO CHANGES IN THE GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1241,96 TONNES

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

Inventory rests tonight at

SEPT 4/ GLD INVENTORY 1250.04 tonnes*

LAST;  895 TRADING DAYS:   +310.54 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN ADDED THE GLD

 

LAST 795 TRADING DAYS://+489.07  TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

 

end

 

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

SEPT 4//WITH SILVER DOWN 15  CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 3.631 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 564.799 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 3//WITH SILVER DOWN 50 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.258 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 568.430 MILLION OZ/./

SEPT 2.WITH SILVER DOWN $1.04 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.365 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY REST AT 571.688 MILLION OZ.

SEPT 1//WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 574.053 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 31/WITH SILVER UP 80 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN THE SLV//A DEPOSIT OF 2.982 MILLION OZ ENTERS THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 574.053 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 28/WITH SILVER UP 48 CENTS TODAY: A MASSIVE PAPER DEPOSIT OF 4.652 MILLION OZ ENTERS THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 571.071 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 28 CENTS  TODAY// NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 566.419 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 26//WITH SILVER UP $1.04 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.65 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 566.419 MILLION OZ..

AUGUST 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.607 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 571.074 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 24//WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS TODAY: WE HAD A NO CHANGES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 573.843  MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 21//WITH SILVER DOWN 30 CENTS TODAY: WE HAD A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A DEPOSIT OF.838 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 573.843 MILLION OZ..

AUGUST 20/WITH SILVER DOWN $.26 TODAY: WE HAD A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.724 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV..//INVENTORY REST AT 572.843 MILLION  OZ

AUGUST 18/WITH SILVER UP $.44 TODAY: WE HAD A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A DEPOSIT OF 2.514 MILLION OZ//THE SLV INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 576.567 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 17/WITH SILVER  UP $1.27 TODAY: WE HAD NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: //INVENTORY RESTS AT 574.053 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 14/WITH SILVER DOWN  $1.31 TODAY, WE HAD A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.984 MILLION OZ// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 574.053 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 13//WITH SILVER UP $1.76  TODAY: WE HAVE TWO HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.421  MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV AT 2 PM AND ANOTHER DEPOSIT OF 6.984 MILLION OZ AT 5 20 PM/INVENTORY RESTS AT 581.037 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 40 CENTS TODAY: WE HAVE ANOTHER CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A WITHDRAWAL OF XX MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT XX MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 11/WITH SILVER DOWN $3.25 CENTS, WE HAVE ANOTHER CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A DEPOSIT OF 2.41 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 571.632 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 10/WITH SILVER UP 1.89 TODAY, WE HAVE ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.538 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 569.491  MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 69 CENTS TODAY: WE HAVE ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 0.465 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 573.029 MILLION OZ.

AUGUST 6/WITH SILVER UP $1.52 TODAY, WE HAVE NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 572.564 MILLION OZ///

AUGUST 5/WITH SILVER UP $1.03 TODAY, WE HAVE A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A MONSTROUS DEPOSIT OF 5.403 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 572.564 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 4/WITH SILVER UP $1.45 TODAY, WE HAVE NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: //INVENTORY RESTS AT 367.161 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 3/WITH SILVER UP 23 CENTS TODAY: WE HAVE A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//SURPRISINGLY ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 0.931 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 367.161 MILLION OZ//

 

SEPT 4.2020:

SLV INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT

564.799 MILLION OZ

 

 

 

 

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

 

 

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

Jan Nieuwenhuijus: Gold is the most stable currency

 Section: 

12:10p ET Thursday, September 3, 2020

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Voima Gold researcher Jan Nieuwenhuijs today disputes a recent video produced by metals consultancy CPM Group that asserts that gold’s value declines over time just as the value of government currencies does.

Nieuwenhuijs writes: “If gold didn’t retain its purchasing power, why would long-term investors and central banks store it in their vaults for decades?

… 

“Hardly is gold used for industrial applications, so, again, why hold large stocks of gold if it would lose its value over time?

 

“The truth is that gold retains its value, and the stability of gold’s purchasing power in the long term is the main reason to own it.”

Nieuwenhuijus’ commentary is headlined “Gold Is the Most Stable Currency” and it’s posted at Voima Gold here:

https://www.voimagold.com/insight/gold-is-the-most-stable-currency

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

No doubt about it:  the LBMA’s new transparency rules will likely help the Comex fudge its gold inventory levels.  However the continue raiding by Londoners of Comex gold will create huge nightmares for the CME

Ronan Manly: New ‘transparency’ at Bank of England and LBMA likely means to help Comex obfuscate

 Section: 

8:42p ET Thursday, September 3, 2020

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

By starting to report their gold and silver vault holdings on a one-month instead of a three-month basis, Bullion Star gold researcher Ronan Manly writes today, the Bank of England and London Bullion Market Association are probably not doing any favors for the “transparency” they tout.

… 

Rather, Manly speculates, the Bank of England and LBMA are preparing to help the New York Commodities Exchange fudge its own daily vault holdings report as the Comex begins accepting a much broader range of gold bars and facilitates more vaulting and delivery in London.

 

Manly’s analysis is headlined “London Gold Vault Bait-and-Switch as LBMA Prepares Bigger Changes” and it’s posted at Bullion Star here:

https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/ronan-manly/london-gold-vaults-bait-an…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

London Gold Vault Bait-And-Switch As LBMA Prepares Bigger Changes

Submitted by Ronan Manly, BullionStar.com

In a coordinated development which signals more than meets the eye, the Bank of England and London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) have together moved to begin reporting gold and silver vault holdings data on a 1 month lagged basis instead of the 3 month lagged basis under which they had been previously reporting vault stocks since 2017.

London Vault Reporting – As Clear as Mud 

In addition to the Bank of England’s gold vaults in London, LBMA vault reporting applies to commercial precious metals vaults in London operated by the LBMA bullion banks HSBCJP Morgan and ICBC Standard Bank, and vaults operated by the LBMA security providers Brinks, Malca-Amit, Loomis and G4S.

Under these new vault reporting changes, it for example now means that as of the end of August, the Bank of England and LBMA have reported claimed gold bar holdings in the London vaults for month-end July (a 1-month lag) instead of for month-end May (a 3-month lag).

The LBMA has also made the same reporting change (from a 3-month to a 1-month lag) for Good Delivery silver bar inventories claimed to be in the LBMA London vaults. Note that while the Bank of England London vaults hold gold bars in custody storage for central bank and bullion bank clients, the Bank of England does not store silver, so the silver data reported by the LBMA applies to just the other seven vault operators listed above.

Putting aside for a moment as to why gold and silver vault stocks in London are not already reported at the end of each and every business day as happens in the COMEX precious metals vaults in New York, this London vault reporting change is suspicious in that the reason stated from both the LBMA and Bank of England is that its an altruistic move to improve gold market transparency. Furthermore, both parties claim that they are following a recommendation (for improved transparency) set out in the UK regulators’ Fair and Effective Market Review (FEMR).

The trouble with this claim is that the FEMR’s final report (of which the Bank of England was one of the authors) was published over 5 years ago in June 2015, so the explanation now being pitched by the LBMA and Bank of England is both hard to fathom as difficult to swallow. That card had already been played by the LBMA in 2017 so the real motive is something else.

Convincing the world that the London gold and silver vault inventories are healthy may be part of the strategy, but not in the way you might think. The real agenda in my opinion is to prepare the London vaults for COMEX gold and silver contract delivery by giving a more recent glimpse into vault stocks but without giving COMEX like visibility. How could a one month lag meet COMEX vault approval requirements you might ask? By bending the rules would be the answer. Whether this plays out the way I think it will, we will have to wait and see.

Gold in the Vaults but already Owned

The London gold stocks as of July month-end now total a claimed 8,790 tonnes. Of this total, 5,342 tonnes is claimed to be stored at the Bank of England, meaning that 3,448 tonnes are claimed to be stored in the LBMA London commercial vaults. Subtracting the 2,588 tonnes of ETF gold held in the LBMA London commercial vaults at the end of July, this leaves just 861 tonnes of gold not at the Bank of England and not in ETFs. This 861 tonnes represents gold held by other allocated holders such as institutions, sovereign wealth funds, family offices and ultra high net worth individuals. The bullion banks gold and silver floats then have to compete with these entities to get their fill as well as by raiding GLD and by borrowing gold from central bank clients at the Bank of England.

 

Total gold stocks CLAIMED to be held in the London vaults as of the July month-end, Bank of England, LBMA vaults, and ETFs. Source: www.GoldChartsRUs.com

 

Singing from the same Song Sheet

According to the Bank of England’s 1 September press release titled “Increased transparency of London gold holdings”:

“The Bank of England will now publish gold holding data with a one-month lag. The reduction from a three-month lag will increase transparency around gold holdingsin line with the Fair and Effective Market Review’s goal to increase transparency in the gold market.”

Likewise, in one of its press releases on the matter dated 1 September and identically titled “Increased Transparency of London Gold Holdings”,  the LBMA states that:

In a move towards greater transparency, LBMA, the Bank of England and the commercial vaults announced earlier today that they will now publish the gold and silver holdings of the vaults in London with just a one month lag (instead of the earlier three-month delay)”

Logically, the LBMA can’t shift its reporting lag from 3 months to 1 month without the Bank following suit and vice-versa, as the two entities and their vault reporting are embedded into each other. So when one moves the other has to also.

Bizarrely, in a second press release on the same day, this one titled “Latest LBMA Data – Clearing and Vault data”, the LBMA self-referentially welcomes its own move, stating that “we welcome the announcement to reduce the time lag for publication of London vault holdings”. Since it was the LBMA itself which actually made both the announcement and the data publication change, you can see that corporate spin is alive and well in London.

As well as trying to justify the change based on the FEMR report which was published more than 5 years ago by three of the tentacles of the City of London financial octopus (Bank of England, HM Treasury and Financial Conduct Authority), this sudden ‘Road to Damascus’ impulse by the Bank of England and LBMA to ‘improve transparency’ around London precious metals vault inventories doesn’t cut the mustard because both parties said the exact same thing back in 2017 when first reporting London precious metals vault holdings.

Additionally, as one of the very authors of the FEMR report in 2015, its rich of the Bank of England, five years later, to now claim its reporting change is based on a recommendation it made to itself five years ago.

As a reminder, the Bank of England first published its gold vault holdings data with a 3-month lag at the end of April 2017, at which time the World Gold Council (WGC) praised the Bank as follows:

“Enhanced transparency from the Bank of England

 As a leading custodian of gold, with one of the largest vaults in the world, the Bank of England’s decision is highly significant. Not only will it enhance the transparency of the Bank’s own gold operations; it will also support the drive towards greater transparency across the gold market.

The LBMA then followed suit at the end of July 2017, putting out its press release on 31 July 2017 which was humourly titled “Demystifying London’s Gold and Silver Vault Holdings” and in which it stated that:

“These figures provide an important insight into London’s durability and reinforce the underlying strength of the physical OTC Market.”

“LBMA is therefore very pleased to be able to offer this information on a more timely basis”

At that time, the LBMA also quoted FEMR’s recommendation as follows:

“Transparency

According to the Fair and Effective Markets Review …in markets where OTC trading remains the preferred model, authorities and market participants should continue to explore the scope for improving transparency, in ways that also enhance effectiveness.”

Some questions for the Media

Fast forward to today,  more than 3 years later, and its déjà vu all over again with the LBMA and Bank of England now going through the same motions, with the exact same language about transparency, and with the exact same claims. This throws up a number of interesting questions such as:

  • With the LBMA now trying to claim that the current move to reporting 1 month lagged vault data is in the interests of transparency, this begs the question as to what exactly was the 3 month lagged data, a mere partial demystifying of London’s gold and silver vault holdings?
  • Why does the LBMA now feel the need to again “reinforce the underlying strength of the physical OTC Market” by moving to a 1 month reporting lag? Could it be that the underlying strength of the physical OTC market is not so strong?
  • Why was this precious metals vault data not provided on a more timely basis over 3 years ago when the LBMA began vault reporting in 2017?
  • Why did the FEMR committee not pull up the LBMA and the Bank of England back in 2017 to direct them to report vault data on a 1 month basis instead of on a 3 month lag?
  • Why is this move now happening more than 3 years after the initial reporting, and more than 5 years after the FEMR’s final report was published in June 2015?
  • Why are the mainstream financial media not asking these simple questions to the Bank of England and the LBMA?
  • Why are the mainstream financial media not covering the recent move by COMEX to ‘mass approve’ for COMEX contract delivery, all LBMA gold and silver refiner bar brands, both on the current and former London Good Delivery Lists?

 

2,587 tonnes – Total gold held in gold backed Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) in London as of month-end July 2020. Source: www.GoldChartsRUs.com

 

Fair and Effective Markets? Pull the other one

Nor is it wise for the LBMA and the Bank to have raised the word FEMR, for as in the old adage, they should have let sleeping dogs lie. When it was launched in June 2014, the remit of the Fair and Effective Markets Review (FEMR) was to investigate the Fixed Income, Currency and Commodities (FICC) markets in the wake of massive benchmark manipulation scandals that had taken place in LIBOR, in the London Gold Fix, and in Foreign Exchange indexes. Its final report (the FEMR report) published in June 2015 was a summary of these investigations as well as recommendations (recommended with a straight face) to improve market trading standards and to crack down on market abuse.

Hilariously, while one of the outcomes of the FEMR recommendations was the 2017 implementation of the LBMA Global Precious Metals Code, a Code of Conduct which all LBMA members had to sign and commit to, manipulation in the precious metals markets continued apace for years after the FEMR report was published, with LBMA heavy weights such as JP Morgan and Scotia being progressively involved in bigger and bigger gold and silver price manipulations since then. See Scotia misconduct here in 2020 and JP Morgan here in 2019.

The LBMA also had to contend with the embarrassment that one of the LBMA Board members,  Michael Nowak of JP Morgan fame, was charged in 2019 by the US Department of Justice (DoJ)for engaging in a racketeering conspiracy under the “Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act, or RICO, as well as other federal crimes in connection with manipulating precious metals futures markets.

A further outcome of the FEMR report was that the LBMA Gold Price auction (i.e. the re-disguised former London Gold Fix auction launched in March 2015 by the LBMA bullion banks) became a Regulated Benchmark under which manipulation is now a criminal offence. However, this too turns out to have been nothing more than a sham because for example, as recently as last week on 27 August 2020, as the COMEX gold price was being slammed, the afternoon LBMA Gold Price auction took 33 rounds to settle over 21 minutes, while the 12 direct participants (all LBMA members and mainly LBMA bullion banks) collectively first held the bid volume unchanged for 16 rounds, then after round 17 when the price had fallen by $28, then held the ask volume unchanged until round 33. More on that auction in due course.

 

The Recent London Vault Data

Turning to the most recent vault data now available following the LBMA – Bank reporting change, there is also nothing obvious in the data that would explain a rationale for the Bank and LBMA making move at this time. Granted, the LBMA claims the London gold vault stocks are at an all time high.

However, with most of that gold held by long term holders and at least some of it claimed by multiple parties, a record gold vault stock in itself doesn’t mean much. Changing from a 3-month to a 1-month reporting window for a one hit wonder record claim would be like firing all your ammo for little or no effect. While the new data itself doesn’t justify the change, its worth highlighting all the same.

Before this week’s change, the LBMA and Bank of England would have, at the end of August, been reporting vault holdings as of May month end. With the move to a 1-month reporting lag, the LBMA and Bank of England have now reported three month end vault holdings totals at the same time, up until July month end. from next month they will just report one month’s data with a 1 month lag.

 

5,342 tonnes – Total gold CLAIMED to be held in the Bank of England vaults on behalf of central bank and commercial bank customers. July month-end 2020. Source: www.GoldChartsRUs.com

Note that the Bank of England reports its gold vault data separately, while the LBMA vault data figures include all the London vaults, both commercial vaults and the Bank of England vaults. As such the Bank of England data is a subset of the overall totals. Looking first at the Bank of England (BoE) gold vault data, the BoE vaults lost a net 59.9 tonnes in May, lost a net 29.4 tonnes in June, and lost another net 33.1 tonnes in July. In total over the three months from April month-end to July month-end the BoE vaults saw a net outflow of 122.4 tonnes of gold from 5464.4 tonnes at the end of April to 5342 tonnes of gold at the end of July.

Could this be central bank gold sales or withdrawals from the Bank of England vaults? Possibly. However, the more intriguing possibility is that these outflows are SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) gold bar holdings that had been allocated to the GLD over April to June using the Bank of England as gold sub-custodian, and that over May to July were being transferred out of the Bank of England vaults to the HSBC vault in London. This possibility was covered in the BullionStar article a few weeks ago titled “GLD continues to source gold at the Bank of England, at an escalating rate“.

The reason that this is possible is that using GLD SEC filings and GLD daily gold holdings changes, the SPDR Gold Trust could have transferred out up to 110 tonnes of gold over May and June. GLD was also was also still holding 40 tonnes of gold in the Bank of England at month end. The majority of this too could have been transferred out of the Bank of England vaults in July. For more details see the screenshot below.

BullionStar Article – “GLD continues to source gold at the Bank of England, at an escalating rate”, 14 August 2020. 

Looking at the overall London vault data for gold (including the Bank of England vaults) the overall figure claims a net addition of 308 tonnes of gold between the end of April and the end of July, comprising a net 2.3 tonnes in May, a 184 tonnes net inflow in June, and a 121.7 tonnes net inflow in July.

Given the 122.4 tonnes outflows from the Bank of England vaults over that time, this means that the other vaults (excluding the BoE) together saw a net 430.4 tonnes increase over the May to July period, which comprised 62.2 tonnes in May, 213.3 tonnes in June, and 154.9 tonnes in July.

 

LBMA claims to have 34,011 tonnes of silver stored in London vaults, of which an estimated 20,761 tonnes is held in silver-backed ETFs. Source: www.GoldChartsRUs.com

Turning to silver, which is not held at the Bank of England vaults, the LBMA vaults claim that between the end of April and the end of July, the amount of silver held in the London commercial vaults fell from 35,667.8 tonnes to 34,011.9 tonnes, for a net outflow of 1,655.9 tonnes. The bulk of those net silver outflows were in June and July, with the vaults recording a net withdrawal of 915 tonnes of silver in June and 690 tonnes in July, with a residual 51 tonne net outflow in May. With 1600 tonnes of silver leaving the London vaults over June and July, that may be a story for Bloomberg to follow up on.

 

Bullion bankers review proposal on delivering COMEX gold using London vaults

Conclusion – A More Compelling Reason 

On first principles, the LBMA and Bank of England want their vault holdings a) to appear more transparent and b) to create a perception that total metal stocks are deep, and healthy.

But the new claims about transparency and the FEMR report are risible. There is nothing transparent about the London gold and silver markets. Unlike the equity and bond markets, there is no reporting of transactions and trades in the OTC London gold and silver markets. There is no data whatsoever about positions and transactions in the London gold lending market, no data on which commercial banks hold gold accounts at the Bank of England, no data on the identities of central bank gold custody customers of the Bank of England, no data on the size of the enormous unallocated gold and silver liabilities of the bullion banks, no published data on the location of the London commercial vaults, and no published audits of the claimed gold and silver inventories in the LBMA and Bank of England vaults. And that’s just a flavour.

In short, the LBMA bullion banks and Bank of England couldn’t care less gold and silver market transparency. What they do care about though is projecting the illusion of transparency.  No more so than when COMEX soon moves to allow gold and silver in the LBMA London vaults to be delivered against the COMEX GC 100 and SI 5000 gold and silver futures contracts.

Last week here I covered the recent move by the COMEX to mass approve all of the gold and silver refiner bar brands of the LBMA (both those on the current and on the former London Good Delivery lists for gold and silver), which is a prelude to facilitating London gold and silver inventories delivery against the COMEX flagship GC 100 oz gold and Si 5000 oz silver futures contarcts . See “LBMA-COMEX collusion intensifies as CME approves 267 LBMA gold and silver bar brands” for details.

As the CME rule wording for the GC 100 contract will probably be when its made: “The depository for gold deliverable against the Gold futures (GC) contract must qualify and be designated a weighmaster and must be located within a 150-mile radius of the City of New York or in London, UK.”

Anyone familiar with the approved COMEX vaults in New York and environs will knows that these vaults publish daily end of day inventory totals of the amount of gold and silver held in each of the vaults, e.g. the New York vaults of HSBC, JP Morgan and Brinks.

In early July when highlighting the recently launched COMEX (Enhanced Delivery) 400 oz contract (4GC), which was a trail balloon for London vault delivery, a Bloomberg article spelled out these requirements:

“Exchange rules require vaults to report daily inventory levels even when metal isn’t marked for delivery. “When London vault applications are submitted and approved, they will follow the same guidelines as those of all exchange-approved facilities for metals,” a CME spokesperson said.

…The same rules will apply to storage facilities in London, potentially bringing more transparency if vaults apply to hold inventory backing the contract.”

My contention however, is that it’s a bridge too far for the secretive and sensitive LBMA vaults in London (HSBC, JP Morgan, Brinks Radius Park, Malca-Amit etc) to allow daily publications of the amount of gold and silver in these commercial vaults. Powerful holders would not want the veil lifted. Hence, to railroad through the London vault delivery into COMEX contracts, a compromise has been reached between the bullion banks and regulators via upcoming CME and CFTC rule changes. After all, as a Scotia or JP Morgan bullion bank trader might say “Rules are made to be broken”.

Thus with this new shift from a 3 month to a 1 month vault reporting lag, the COMEX-LBMA gold pool tag team can, with a bit of spin, hold up a copy of the FEMR report and claim that the London vaults have made a Herculean transparency effort, indeed one that has the blessing of regulators, and successfully ‘lobby’ for a COMEX rule change to allow the London vaults a derogation to only report to COMEX on a 1 month lagged basis instead of the daily end of day requirement of their New York brethren.

*  *  *

This article was originally published on the BullionStar.com website under the same title “London gold vault Bait-and-Switch as LBMA prepares bigger changes“.

END

Alasdair Macleod: Central banks are running out of road with inflation

 Section: 

By Alasdair Macleod
GoldMoney, St. Helier, Jersey, Channel Islands
Thursday, September 3, 2020

If you think that price inflation runs at about 1.6 percent you have fallen for the Consumer Price Index myth of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Two independent analysts using different methods — the Chapwood Index and Shadowstats.com –prove that prices are rising at a far faster rate, more like 10 percent annually and have been doing so since 2010.

This article discusses the consequences of price inflation suppression, particularly in the light of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech, in which he downgraded the importance of price inflation in the Fed’s policy objectives in favor of targeting employment.

 

It concludes that the reconciliation between the BLS CPI figure and the true rate of price inflation is inevitable and will be catastrophic for the Fed’s policy of suppressing interest rates, its maximization of the “wealth effect” of inflated financial asset prices, and for the dollar itself. …

… For the remainder of the analysis:

https://www.goldmoney.com/research/goldmoney-insights/inflation-runnin

Your weekend reading material:

Inflation — running out of road

If you think that price inflation runs at about 1.6% you have fallen for the BLS’s CPI myth. Two independent analysts using different methods — the Chapwood Index and Shadowstats.com — prove that prices are rising at a far faster rate, more like 10% annually and have been doing so since 2010.

This article discusses the consequences of price inflation suppression, particularly in the light of Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech when he downgraded the importance of price inflation in the Fed’s policy objectives in favour of targeting employment.

It concludes that the reconciliation between the BLS CPI figure and the true rate of price inflation is inevitable and will be catastrophic for the Fed’s policy of suppressing interest rates, its maximisation of the “wealth effect” of inflated financial asset prices, and for the dollar itself.

Monetary inflation takes off

Last week saw a virtual Jackson Hole conference, where Jerome Powell downgraded inflation targeting in favour of the other Fed mandate, employment. And Andrew Bailey, Governor of the Bank of England, claimed “We are not out of firepower by any means…. to be honest it looks from today’s vantage point that we were too cautious about our remaining firepower pre-Covid”.

Both men were tearing up earlier scripts. Since they will likely tear up these as well there is little point in examining them further. For the fact is that all the major central banks are trapped in problems of their own making, and some time ago they lost control of their destinies. Figure 1 below encapsulates the problem.

xau graphic 50

M1 is the US narrow money indicator. Over 28 years from 1980, it grew at a simple average annual rate of 8.8% per annum. From 2008 to last February, following the Lehman crisis it grew at an average annual rate of 16.6%, From 24 February in six months it has grown by 34%, which is an average annual rate of 68%. What Powell effectively admitted at Jackson Hole was that M1 annualised growth of 68% was not enough to ensure the US economy would recover. He would have had to downplay the effect on prices to create leeway for further increases in the rate of monetary growth.

The Fed is evidently trapped by its inflationary policies. And the US Bureau of Labour Statistics, which calculates US consumer price indices, will have to work even harder to suppress the evidence of price inflation. Over the last ten years they have recorded an average annual rate of price inflation of 1.69% measured for US cities (CPI-U), and for the first half of 2020 they say it was 0.83%, or 1.66% annualised. To maintain this fiction has been a remarkable feat of statistical management, when compared with the unadulterated fifty city figures collected by the Chapwood Index.[i] Figure 2 shows the gap between the BLS’s CPI and Chapwood’s unadulterated estimates.

xau 705

It is not our purpose to imply that the Chapwood Index of prices is an accurate representation of price inflation. We can talk about the general level of prices in a theoretical sense, but in practice it cannot be measured because each consumer has a different price experience. It is only when one subscribes to the macroeconomics version of economics and talk of unworldly aggregates that a figure is calculated. But if you remove the changes in the BLS’s calculation methods since 1980, you end up with a similar rate of price inflation to that of the Chapwood index, which is confirmed by John Williams at Shadowstats.com.

Now let us reconsider Jay Powell’s and Andrew Bailey’s Jackson Hole speeches in this light. Instead of an average rate of annual price inflation over the last ten years of 1.69%, Chapwood tells us that that average is 10.1%, varying between 13.4% in Sacramento and 7.1% in Albuquerque. It is against this background that Powell proposes to downgrade the Fed’s inflation mandate. Given M1 monetary inflation averaged 16% between the Lehman crisis and last February (see Figure 1) the price effect recorded by Chapwood is not surprising. But it gets worse for Powell. If we accept Chapwood’s numbers as being realistic and use them to deflate nominal GDP, we can see that the US economy has been in a slump for the last ten years: adjusted GDP has contracted by 65% since 2010. This is illustrated in Figure 3.

 

xau 106

 

The only offset is the Fed’s much vaunted wealth effect that comes from speculating in financial assets. But that relief is only available to American investors and those employed in financial and related services, disadvantaging the poor and unemployed who inhabit Main Street, the non-financial economy. It is in this context, perhaps, that we should view the current civil unrest and racial strife in America.

Waking up to reality

Nobody in the investment and media mainstreams, let alone at the Fed, appears to understand the extent of statistical distortions and the consequences. We can count them all, including economics professors and senior figures in the investment game, among the 999,999 out of the proverbial million who don’t understand money and the consequences of its debasement.

The other side of the slump in real GDP illustrated in Figure 3 is the transfer of wealth from producers and consumers in the non-financial economy. If, as implied by a Chapwood GDP deflator, GDP has declined by 65% in real terms since the Lehman crisis, then we can say that gives us an approximation of the net wealth transfer through monetary inflation from producers and consumers to the state, the Fed, the commercial banks and their favoured customers.

If macroeconomists think that inflation stimulates demand, apart from initial artificial and final catastrophic effects perhaps, they are wrong: it kills it. The element of monetary debasement that ends up in government hands, taken from the productive non-financial sector along with all taxes, is wasted because a government produces little more than interference with an otherwise working economy. The true purpose of monetary inflation is not to improve our lives but to finance government deficits.

The element of bank credit inflation which ends up with the banking system’s favoured customers, comprised mainly of the large lumbering zombie corporations of yesteryear, disadvantages the more dynamic entrepreneurial businesses among the small and medium size sectors to the extent they are denied similar credit terms. The element of monetary inflation that ends up fuelling speculation in the financial economy is robbed from the liquidity balances and earnings of producers and consumers without their knowledge or consent. Monetary inflation is virtually impossible for the robbed to detect, not being revealed by accounting methods.

Despite M1 money supply accelerating, deflation remains a common fear, prompted doubtless by commercial banks being reluctant to extend credit at a time of increasing loan risk. But the Fed is already concerned that the commercial banks will not pass on its monetary policies, which is why it is bypassing them by buying corporate bonds and commercial mortgage backed securities through BlackRock. Other similar schemes are sure to follow. But it always amounts to supporting yesterday’s businesses, which the markets would otherwise likely judge to be today’s failures.

Clearly, any tendency for bank credit to contract will be countered by the Fed through further and appropriately aggressive expansion of narrow money, for which Powell was clearing the decks at Jackson Hole. It could lead to an even faster rate of M1 growth than the annualised 68% since February. Those who worry about the deflation of bank credit are therefore premature in their analysis and obviously believe in monetary inflation as an economic cure-all. But in real terms the US economy is already contracting because monetary inflation is leading to far faster price rises than is generally realised. Monetary inflation as a policy was only going to make things worse.

It is also a myth that monetary inflation is helpful to businesses. While an artificial and temporary cheapening of domestic manufacturing costs is lauded by neo-Keynesians, businesses need monetary stability in order to calculate the value of future payments: a healthy economy depends on business calculation which relies on the certainty of price stability. It is not good enough to say that suppressing interest rates benefit businesses: it is only true for over-indebted zombie businesses which with state aid can survive a little longer. But that is an artificial boost in their fortunes at the expense of a hidden inflation tax on everyone else. Not only does inflation coupled with the suppression of interest rates promote and sustain these commercial failures, but by doing so it also restricts the redistribution of all forms of capital into more productive use.

If the effects of monetary inflation become apparent to actors in the non-financial economy, they begin a process of reducing their monetary liquidity, knowing that money will buy less in the future than at the present. Until now, economic actors appear to place greater credence in the BLS’s inflation figures than from their own experience; but that cannot last. When the effect on prices of an annualised expansion of narrow M1 money of 68% becomes apparent it is likely to undermine widespread complacency. And when people realise that the general level of prices is rising despite the slump in economic activity, they will begin to dump all forms of dollar liquidity they possess in return for goods, driving price inflation even higher than increased money quantities would suggest. The transition from the false stability of prices as measured by government statistics into a final crack-up boom when money is dumped as worthless need not take long: all it needs is a trigger.

Shutting our eyes to this reality is nonsensical. The BLS’s CPI figures will prove to be defined by a vulgarity suggested by its own acronym. And when markets rumble it, the Fed will be unable to contain US Treasury yields at anything like current low levels. If we take the Chapwood price inflation figures for this year, then the current yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond is minus 9.45%, which must be close to a record in the annals of US monetary history.

Let us assume, for a moment, that financial markets adjust to price inflation rates closer to the Chapwood figures, which have already accelerated from an annual average of 9.6% for 2019 to 10.1% in the first half of 2020. US Treasury yields would initially rise at the short end of the curve to reflect that figure, perhaps with a margin over it. With the government’s budget deficit sure to exceed $3 trillion in the current fiscal year (to October) and perhaps double that next, the 2019 interest bill of $383bn on existing debt and the higher rate for US Treasury bond roll-overs plus the interest on new debt, total annual funding costs are likely to rapidly approach a trillion dollars . It is a debt trap sprung firmly shut and investors will take that into account.

An out of control budget deficit will continue to be funded through quantitative easing — there’s no other way. But a rise in bond yields will also have a catastrophic effect on equities, on their valuations as financial assets, on the cost of new and rolled-over corporate debt, and on valuations for loan collateral. The much-vaunted wealth effect, which has concealed the collapse in real GDP since the Lehman crisis, will quickly evaporate. Because the Fed has gone all in on using monetary inflation to sustain a financial bubble, it has also tied the dollar’s future to it, so its bursting is bound to have a profoundly negative effect on the dollar’s purchasing power.

 

 

The inflation problem is about to get worse

We have now established that the Fed is committed to accelerating the increase in the money quantity. We have also established that its monetary policies combined with statistical price manipulation has had the opposite effect of that intended, so much so that since the Lehman crisis the US economy has contracted in real terms by more than half, which any competent sociologist will tell you leads to civil unrest — plainly evidenced today. We have reached a high point in macroeconomic madness.

It’s about to get worse.

Despite the post-Lehman acceleration of money supply, last September the repo market blew up on the day when Deutsche Bank sold its prime brokerage to BNP, the French global systemically important bank — a G-SIB. It may or may not have been the trigger for ongoing problems in the repo market, but clearly, there were liquidity issues in the US’s financial and banking system at that time.

It came on top of last year’s contraction in international trade, due in large measure to trade tensions between America and China with knock-on effects for China’s trading partners, such as Germany. Non-banks, principally insurance companies, pension funds and hedge funds acting directly or through agencies had accumulated large positions in fx swaps, ripping out interest differentials between euros and yen on one side, and a rising dollar on the other. The G-SIBs, particularly JPMorgan, had no excess reserves available to finance further non-bank speculation in this market. The turn of the cycle of bank credit expansion was upon us due to these liquidity issues, instead of the normal end of cycle problem of over-geared bank balance sheets facing escalating lending risk. However, thanks to covid-19 lending risk is now rising rapidly.

The S&P500 index crashed by fully one-third between mid-February and 23 March, as institutional investors suddenly realised the deflationary consequences of liquidity shortages in the banking system. It took the Fed’s cut in its funds rate from 1% to 0% on 16 March and its statement on 23 March, when it promised new QE and infinite monetary support for businesses and households, to relieve the liquidity problem.[ii]

At the same time came the covid-19 lockdowns. China had imposed lockdowns in Hubei Province in January, but from early March the rest of the world started to go into lockdown, with the UK going into lockdown on 23 March. In the US a number of states announced lockdowns from 17 March, with New York locking down on 22 March. The Fed’s actions, cutting its funds rate on 16 March and announcing infinite QE on 23 March were both timely and a financial watershed.

In all the mayhem of lockdowns it is easy to forget that the collapse of overnight liquidity was already a six-month old evolving crisis, marking a cyclical turning point in the expansion of bank credit. Unlike Lehman, which reflected a cycle of excessive property speculation, this one has its roots in a downturn in global and now domestic trade, as well as a global currency imbalance in favour of the dollar. According to US Treasury TIC figures, at end-June 2019, which are the most recent available estimates, foreigners owned $20,534 bn of US securities.[iii] To this must be added bills and cash, which on the most recent TIC report (June 2020) totalled a further $6,227 bn.[iv] Therefore, putting to one side the different dates of record and higher equity valuations today, foreign ownership of dollars is roughly $27 trillion, which equates to 125% of US GDP in 2019.

Foreign ownership amounts to such a large figure relative to GDP due to the dollar’s reserve status, foreign participation in funding US budget deficits and anticipation of an expansion of future trade. But as we have seen, global trade began to contract in 2019, which if continued, reduces the need to hold dollars. And we can be certain that if foreign holders take the view that the US economy is in a slump, beyond their requirements for marginal liquidity there is no reason for them to hold dollars at all because they can always buy them when actually needed.

Consequently, the US is vulnerable to foreign liquidation of securities, comprised of US Treasuries and other bonds, together with portfolio investments amounting to 20% of total US long-term securities extant.[v] So far, on a net basis foreigners appear to have stopped or slowed their net buying of US securities and cash dollars. Some positions will have been unwound by US hedge funds and other entities operating in the fx swap market rather than foreigners, driving the dollar’s trade weighted lower by about ten per cent so far from its 23 March high. But foreigners appear to have not yet began to sell dollars in meaningful quantities. When they do, they will be selling US Treasury and corporate bonds and liquidating equity portfolios as well. And if they do so at a time when there are insufficient domestic buyers to absorb their selling, these markets will crash along the dollar, which will be sold as well.

In the short-term, the course of financial asset prices and of the dollar’s exchange value will in large measure be determined by non-Americans. [As a side note, the last time a currency and financial assets became so intertwined was in the Mississippi bubble. The Irish-French banker, Richard Cantillon, made his second fortune in the latter part of 1719 by shorting the livre currency before the peak in the shares in late-February 1720. A similar pattern could be emerging today in the relationship between fiat money and financial assets, with the dollar weakening before US financial assets][vi]

 

 

Pricking the bubble

We know that the two versions of price inflation, that of the BLS and Chapwood (which accords with Shadowstats) are far apart. The finance sector is pricing financial assets on the basis of the BLS’s CPI and therefore accepts the Fed’s monetary policy of keeping short-term interest rates close to the zero bound. But rising prices for metallic money, gold and silver, indicate that the policies of suppressing apparent price inflation and interest rates are running into trouble.

We know, therefore, that the financial asset bubble itself is on a last hurrah, and its imploding deflation, driven initially perhaps by a resolving of the tension between the BLS’s CPI and the true rate of price inflation, is only a matter of time. We can identify a few key reasons likely to trigger the bursting of the financial asset bubble:

• A growing realisation that the covid-19 shutdowns are additional to the credit cycle and liquidity problems that surfaced in September 2019 and that a post-covid-19 recovery will be followed by a deeper and more intractable slump.

• Liquidity problems in the banking system and for its non-financial customers, together with the escalation of bad debts are leading towards bank failures. Fortunately, US banks are generally less leveraged than those elsewhere. But Eurozone, Japanese, Chinese and some UK G-SIB banks pose exceptional systemic risks, making their continued survival as independent commercial banks unlikely  beyond the near term.

• Foreign selling of US financial assets and the repatriation of their funds.

The first two bullet points will simply guarantee a further escalation in the rate of monetary inflation as the partnership of central banks and state treasury departments desperately attempt to contain a deteriorating situation. But foreign repatriation of funds will hit the dollar hardest, making it lose purchasing power against other currencies as financial asset values collapse. The euro, yen and Chinese yuan will appear perversely strong for a brief period, with their central banks desperate to contain the rises in their own currencies in the belief they are deflationary.

The sheer scale of dollar inflation will also mean that global commodity and raw material prices will rise, signalling that the dollar’s purchasing power is falling.

Empirical evidence in these situations indicates that an inflating currency is hit first in the foreign exchanges, before the domestic population discovers what is happening to their money. There is then followed by a growing panic among domestic users to dump money. In the best documented monetary collapses, such as Germany’s of 1923, cash was increasingly demanded in order to be spent as soon as possible, and evidence from Venezuela suggests this is still true today. However, more sophisticated financial systems have eliminated cash for most transactions, replacing it with credit and debit cards as well as other forms of electronic money. Internet banking and shopping further speeds up the process of turning money into goods.

This has the effect of speeding up the spending process significantly, leading to a more rapid loss of purchasing power compared with a currency whose users first make a trip to their bank to encash their deposits before heading for the shops. Additionally, a generation of cryptocurrency-savvy millennials have been forewarned of the consequences of fiat money inflation and stand prepared to ditch currencies earlier than their equivalents would have been in the past.

Taking these factors into account, the collapse in purchasing power of a currency which has been deployed to save financial assets and failed, once the general public finally understands the consequences, will likely be surprisingly rapid. In 1923 Germany, the final collapse took roughly six months. In 2020 America it could take as little as a few weeks.

Other currencies that refer to the dollar for their relative values are sure to suffer the same fate, not helped by the fact that their central banks have been pursuing similar monetary policies and will likely cooperate with each other to the bitter end.

 

iii) Other physical stories:

 

Andrew Maguire
Part ii
Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early FRIDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 6.8408/ 

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.8443   /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 29.61 POINTS OR 0.87%

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 312.15 POINTS OR 1.25%

 

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 260.10 POINTS OR 1.11%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED MOSTLY GREEN/

 

 

 

USA dollar index UP TO 92.74/Euro RISE TO 1.1845

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. +.03/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 106.21/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 41.73 and Brent: 44.30

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE DOWN/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO -.49%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 0.98% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.32%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.47: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 1.12

3k Gold at $1939.65 silver at: 26.87   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 15/100 in roubles/dollar) 75.12

3m oil into the 41 dollar handle for WTI and 44 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 106.21 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9114 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0796 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to 0.49%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 0.644% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 1.372%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 7.4401..

Futures Rebound From Furious Selloff But Tech Slide Continues

Futures tracking the S&P 500 and Dow indexes bounced on Friday – if not so much the Nasdaq – after Wall Street’s worst session since June, with attention now turning to the crucial jobs report that is likely to show a faltering recovery in the labor market. S&P 500 contracts gained as much as 0.6% ahead of the U.S. open although the bounce appeared to lose power, while Nasdaq 100 Index futures resumes their slide after an attempt to rebound failed.

Despite the recovery in spoos, Nasdaq futures were deep in the red, as shares of Apple and Tesla – the poster children for the furious August ramp – resumed their slide in early premarket trading, suggesting that momentum from the rout may still be present.

After climbing to record highs on the back of historic stimulus and a rally in technology stocks, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq suffered their worst day in nearly three months on Friday as investors booked gains.

Elsewhere, there was a muted reaction to the tech-driven plunge in U.S. markets on Thursday, with European bank stocks rallying after news that Spain’s CaixaBank SA and Bankia SA are exploring a 14 billion-euro merger. Europe’s Stoxx 600 erased opening losses of as much as 1% to trade in the green as investors piled into cyclicals, selling off defensive sectors. Banks led gains, up 1.8%, with an extra boost from deal activity among Spanish lenders. Miners, autos and travel also outperformed, while real estate, tech and food-and-drink stocks fell the most.

Earlier in the session, Asian shares dropped led by health care and communications, with Australia’s benchmark recording the biggest decline since May. The Topix declined 0.9%, with Elematec and GMO Payment Gateway falling the most. The Shanghai Composite Index retreated 0.9%, with Henglin Furnishings and Cfmoto Power posting the biggest slides

As previewed previously, this morning’s job report is expected to show 1.40 million U.S. jobs created last month, down from 1.76 million in July, as the government’s coronavirus aid ran out and companies from transportation to industrials announced layoffs or furloughs.

The data, expected at 8:30 a.m. ET could add pressure on the White House and Congress to restart stalled negotiations over the next coronavirus relief package, especially with stocks showing notable cracks.

Of course, attention will remain on tech companies. While the industry is generating blockbuster profits, there’s also been an explosion of speculative options among retail investors. For some investors, that’s clear evidence that tech stocks have become overheated according to Bloomberg.

“This is unlikely to be a repeat of the tech wreck of the late 1990s, given how much the market and sector have changed,” said JPMorgan Asset Management strategist Kerry Craig. While valuations are elevated, “we are also mindful of the earnings and revenue potential in the coming years from areas like cloud computing and artificial intelligence.”

In rates, Treasuries were under modest pressure in early U.S. trading with losses led by long end, although the price action was relatively subdued ahead of August employment report. Yields were cheaper by 0.5bp to 2bp across the curve with 2s10s spread steeper by ~1bp, 5s30s by ~1.7bp; 10-year yields around 0.65%, lagging bunds by ~1bp on the day while gilts keep pace. European bonds were little changed, outperforming Treasuries.

In FX, the U.S. dollar consolidated gains on Friday but was set for its biggest weekly rise since mid-June as an overnight drop in high-flying U.S. technology stocks fuelled a bout of risk aversion in global markets. The dollar’s bounce this week comes after weeks of losses which saw the greenback fall to a April 2018 low of 91.74 on Tuesday after the U.S. central bank overhauled its policy framework last week, which would allow it to keep rates lower for longer periods, a negative for the dollar.

“The dollar’s loss-making momentum has stopped a little bit and the recent ECB comments on the euro has also helped but the broader direction of monetary policy making will be a key factor going ahead,” said Ulrich Leuchtmann, analyst at Commerzbank.

Against a basket of currencies the dollar was trading at 92.774 in early London trading. On a weekly basis, it was up 0.6%, its biggest weekly rise since mid-May. “Near-term, if this correction in big tech continues, it will impact overall risk and fuel further demand for the dollar,” Mizuho strategists said in a note. Most currencies held in tight ranges before payrolls; Norway’s krone led gains, while the Australian dollar shrugged off an early dip to climb, after the country recommitted to opening the economy by December

In commodities, oil held above $44 a barrel on Friday and was on course for its biggest weekly decline since June as weak demand figures added to concern over a slow recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. A U.S. government report showed that domestic gasoline demand fell in the latest week. Middle distillates inventories at Asia’s oil hub Singapore have soared above a nine-year high, official data showed. Elsewhere, spot gold and silver remain contained within tight ranges around 1935/oz and 28.80/oz respectively as the precious metals mirror Dollar action. In terms of base metals, Shanghai copper saw a session of losses as it tracked the performance in Chinese markets, whilst Dalian iron futures also tracked lower.

To the day ahead now, and as mentioned the US jobs report will likely provide the main highlight. Otherwise, we’ll also get German retail sales for July, the August construction PMIs from Germany and the UK, and the Canadian jobs report for August. Meanwhile, central bank speakers include the ECB’s Lane and Villeroy, along with the BoE’s Saunders.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.4% to 3,476.00
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.5% to 368.06
  • MXAP down 1.2% to 171.58
  • MXAPJ down 1.3% to 566.34
  • Nikkei down 1.1% to 23,205.43
  • Topix down 0.9% to 1,616.60
  • Hang Seng Index down 1.3% to 24,695.45
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.9% to 3,355.37
  • Sensex down 1% to 38,602.63
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 3.1% to 5,925.51
  • Kospi down 1.2% to 2,368.25
  • Brent futures up 0.4% to $44.25/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.2% to $1,934.36
  • U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 92.70
  • German 10Y yield rose 1.3 bps to -0.475%
  • Euro down 0.09% to $1.1841
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 0.3 bps to 0.849%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 0.9 bps to 0.335%

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin have agreed to work to avoid a government shutdown just before the November election, and to not let the battle over stimulus funding delay a stopgap bill
  • Coronavirus cases surpassed 26 million worldwide, while deaths exceeded 868,000
  • Australia’s Prime Minister Scott Morrison announced that most state and territory leaders were committed to reopening the country’s economy by December in an attempt to bring it out of its first recession in decades
  • The Bank of England is likely to have to ease monetary policy further to help combat the economic impact of the coronavirus, according to central bank official Michael Saunders
  • Boris Johnson’s government said it will be able to avoid border chaos when the U.K. completes its split from the European Union despite stark warnings from industry over its lack of readiness

A quick look at global markets courtesy of NewsSquawk

APAC stocks declined across the board as the region reacted to the bloodbath on Wall St where markets slipped aggressively from record levels and the DJIA fell over 800 points and Nasdaq shed over 5% amid a tech rout, as well as the paring of risk heading into the NFP jobs data and US holiday weekend. ASX 200 (-3.0%) and Nikkei 225 (-1.1%) were heavily pressured in the face of the tech-related headwinds which resulted to hefty losses for the sector in Australia and dragged the index beneath the 6,000 level, while sentiment in Tokyo also deteriorated as exporters suffered the ill-effects of a firmer currency. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (-1.3%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.9%) conformed to the broad losses in the region which followed a substantial net liquidity drain of CNY 470bln by the PBoC this week, and as tensions lingered with Chinese President Xi suggesting China will never accept foreign interference and with Global Times stating China will further cut holdings of US bonds due to concerns about a US crackdown and risks of ballooning US deficit although the reports cited economist and not government officials. Finally, 10yr JGBs traded flat as prices failed to benefit from the stock rout and the BoJ’s presence in the market, which was for a relatively reserved JPY 520bln of JGBs heavily focused on 5yr-10yr maturities.

Top Asian News

  • Sri Lanka’s President Seeks to Restore Sweeping Executive Powers
  • Chinese Banks Plan $29 Billion in Bond Sales to Replenish Capital
  • Turkey Warns West It Will Continue to Shop Around for Missiles
  • Yum China Is Said to Raise $2.2 Billion in Hong Kong Listing

European equity markets have staged somewhat of a recovery since the cash open (Euro Stoxx 50 +0.5%) after erasing losses of some 0.9% following a downbeat APAC session – with gains lead by the periphery, namely the IBEX (+1.6%) propped up by source reports that Bankia (+30%) and Caixabank (+15%) are working on a merger, with a deal to be closed in the next few days. Thus, the European financial sector is outperforming with the FTSE MIB (+0.6%) also benefitting given its large exposure to banks. Overall sectors present a cyclical/value tilt, whilst IT clambered its way from the bottom after initial pressure from Wall Street’s tech rout. The breakdown also sees a firm performance amongst Travel & Leisure names, underpinned by the recovery in sentiment alongside relief as Greece and Portugal were not added to UK’s travel quarantine list despite speculation. In term of individual movers, Telecom Italia (+0.2%) remains subdued after the Italian Industry Ministry stated that the Co. may not have a majority stake in Italy’s future single broadband network operator, thus providing impetus to Mediaset (+8.1%). Finally, Imperial Brands (+2.9%) remains underpinned by a positive broker move.

Top European News

  • Russia Rate Cut in Question After Novichok Claim Hits Ruble
  • London’s Housing Market Lures Hong Kongers Seeking Safe Haven
  • Bank of England Rate Cuts Aren’t Lowering Mortgage Costs
  • One in Seven U.K. Homes Are Selling in a Week After Tax Cut

In FX, the Dollar looks laboured ahead of NFP and Monday’s US market holiday, or simply fatigued after its recovery exertions that culminated in the DXY reaching 93.074 before petering out. Pre-NFP caution and consolidation has curtailed price action with major pairings restrained within narrow ranges, exemplified by the index sticking to tight confines just below the round number (92.887-658). US Treasuries are back in bear-steepening mode to offer the Greenback support, while stocks are attempting to draw a line under yesterday’s rout awaiting further direction from the aforementioned jobs data.

  • CAD/AUD/GBP/NZD – All marginally firmer vs the Buck, but mainly in corrective trade following heavy recent losses as the Loonie rebounds from 1.3140 to 1.3100+ ahead of Canada’s labour report with some traction from a stabilisation in crude prices, the Aussie bounces from around 0.7250 despite a slender miss vs consensus in July retail sales and the Pound also finds some support near a half round number to revisit the 1.3300 handle irrespective of a slowdown in the UK construction PMI or dovish sounding comments from BoE’s Saunders. Meanwhile, the Kiwi is pivoting 0.6700 and assessing the NZ COVID-19 situation following the first death and PM Adern’s review of current restrictions on September 14.
  • EUR/JPY/CHF – Even more tightly bound against the US Dollar, with the Euro capped by the 200 HMA (1.1866) and heavily flanked by option expiries stretching from 1.1780-90 right up to 1.2000 (for full details see the headline feed at 6.57BST). Similarly, the Yen sits between decent expiry interest from 106.00 to 106.70-80 if it ventures beyond the 106.07-24 band that seems unlikely given little inclination amidst reports suggesting the BoJ is about to raise its assessment of the Japanese economy, and the Franc is straddling 0.9100.
  • SCANDI/EM – The Nok has regained a degree of composure alongside oil, but the Try remains deflated in wake of Thursday’s soft Turkish CPI data and licking wounds off fresh all time lows.

In commodities, WTI and Brent front month futures trade have recovered off worst levels to eke mild gains in early European hours, in what seems to be a sentiment-driven move in tandem with stock markets heading into this month’s US labour market report. Oil-specific news-flow has remained light with participants continuing to flag the resumptions of Gulf of Mexico supply alongside an uncertain demand outlook. WTI Oct makes headway just above USD 41.50/bbl (vs. low (40.84/bb) whilst Brent Nov extends gains above USD 44/bbl (vs. low USD 43.53/bbl). Looking ahead to next week, monthly oil import numbers from China, released on Monday, will be eyed as a gauge of demand in the nation, ahead of the EIA STEO, although the OPEC and IEA MOMRs will be released on the following week. Elsewhere, spot gold and silver remain contained within tight ranges around 1935/oz and 28.80/oz respectively as the precious metals mirror Dollar action. In terms of base metals, Shanghai copper saw a session of losses as it tracked the performance in Chinese markets, whilst Dalian iron futures also tracked lower with rising portside inventories also weighing on the metal.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, est. 1.35m, prior 1.76m
  • 8:30am: Unemployment Rate, est. 9.8%, prior 10.2%
  • 8:30am: Average Hourly Earnings MoM, est. 0.0%, prior 0.2%; Average Hourly Earnings YoY, est. 4.5%, prior 4.8%

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Ahead of today’s all-important US jobs report, there was a rout in markets yesterday led by the tech sector. Having reached a record high just the day before, the S&P 500 fell -3.51% in its biggest one-day decline since June 11th, with the VIX volatility index spiking up 7.0pts to its highest levels since mid-July. Interestingly, the jump in volatility was across the curve and the election volatility premium remains intact even after the large spike yesterday. As mentioned big tech was the main culprit behind the losses after having continuously powered forward since March. The NASDAQ fell -4.96% in its biggest daily fall for nearly 3 months, as Apple (-8.01%), Microsoft (-6.19%) and Amazon (-4.63%) all lost ground. For context though, this move only gives up the last week of gains for the NASDAQ and it is still up +27.70% on the year and +67.01% since the March lows.

Our tech strategist Apjit Walia, who sits in my team, published “America’s Racial Gap & Big Tech’s Closing Window” on Wednesday where he discussed tech inequality but also the surprisingly low number of only 1 in 3 Americans now having a positive view on Big tech companies according to our proprietary survey. As Apjit says the window for these companies is closing and post election they are likely to see closer scrutiny whoever wins. See the note from earlier this week here. Given his long history in the tech sector and reputation it’s not impossible that his note has had some influence on markets over the last 24 hours.

The large moves yesterday were evident across an array of asset classes and countries, as there was a broader rotation out of risk assets into safe havens. European equities saw a similar reversal to the US, as they pared back their strong gains at the open for the STOXX 600 to close down -1.40%. Oil fell to their lowest levels in over a month, down over -2% at one point, before Brent settled at -0.81% and WTI -0.34%. Core sovereign bonds rallied on both sides of the Atlantic, with yields on 10yr Treasuries (-1.3bps) and bunds (-1.5bps) falling further. Over in FX meanwhile, the Swiss Franc was the top-performing G10 currency, with the dollar index slightly lower (-0.12%). Not all havens gained though with gold dropping -0.62%. Silver fell -3.14%.

Overnight in Asia markets are down but not excessively so. The Nikkei (-1.30%), Hang Seng (-1.83%), Shanghai Comp (-1.38%), Kospi (-1.56%) and Asx (-3.11%) are all lower. Futures on the S&P 500 are down a further -0.56% though while those on the Nasdaq are down -1.29% indicating that the Wall street sell off might extend into today. We’ll see how the Robinhood community, that aren’t used to markets going down, react. Elsewhere oil prices are down a further c. -1% this morning and spot gold prices are back up +0.39%.

In terms of news this morning the Global Times reported (citing experts) that China may gradually reduce its holdings of US Treasury bonds to about $800 billion from the current level of more than $1 trillion, as the ballooning US federal deficit increases default risks and the Trump administration continues its blistering attack on China. The Global Times is believed to be well connected to the Chinese Communist party but it is not clear whether the article was official. For context China’s holdings of US bonds had dropped by c. -3.4% yoy as of the end of June. Another story worth highlighting is that the House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin have agreed to work to avoid a government shutdown in October right before the election, and not let the stalemate over virus-relief legislation hold up a vital stopgap spending bill.

In other overnight news, the UK government said that its “Eat Out to Help Out” initiative, which ended on August 31, has already led to GBP 522mn being committed versus the estimated GBP 500mn. The figure will increase further as the establishments have until the end of September to claim the money back. While we are on this its worth highlighting our CoTD from yesterday (link here) which showed how the initiative led to jump in restaurant reservations in the UK in August and has been very useful at shaping behaviour habits in a country more badly hit by the virus than many others.

On the coronavirus, there were further concerning trends yesterday, with the UK reporting the most cases (1,757) since early June yesterday. The French Health Ministry acknowledged that increased testing does not fully explain the recent rise of French cases as the weekly caseload is now the highest of the pandemic. Elsewhere Israel is planning on imposing lockdowns on 30 towns that have the highest infection rates in the country in one of the stricter recent reactions to new outbreaks. Under the lockdown, businesses and the majority of schools will be closed with residents required to be within 500 meters of their homes. Separately in the US, Dr Fauci warned that 7 states were at risk of a surge, including Illinois and Indiana. Governor Cuomo of New York reopened malls in the state, but is still unsure on indoor dining in New York City creating issues for the service industry into the winter. Meanwhile as cases are surging on school campuses, a New York state university sent students home for the semester and Indiana University warned of “uncontrolled spread” at fraternities and sororities.

As the dust settles from yesterday’s swings, attention today will turn to the US jobs report for August, which will be the first release since the enhanced unemployment benefits lapsed at the end of July. Our US economists here at DB are looking for a +1.2m increase in nonfarm payrolls, which should push the unemployment rate down to 9.7% (vs. 10.2% at present). If realised, that would bring the total gains in nonfarm payrolls since April to +10.5m, but even then it would still mean that less than half of the -22m jobs lost in March and April had been recovered, so this is likely to be a long journey yet. Today’s jobs report is also the penultimate one before the presidential election in less than 2 months’ time, so is also likely to take on a good deal of political significance, as President Trump and the Republicans look to claim credit for the economic rebound taking place.

Ahead of that later, we got the weekly initial jobless claims yesterday for the week through August 29th, which showed a decline to a post-pandemic low of 881k. That said, it’s worth bearing in mind that changes in the seasonal adjustments mean this number isn’t directly comparable to last week’s, and that the unadjusted number actually showed an increase in claims of 7,591 up to 833,352. The other main release came from the services and composite PMIs, where the Euro Area composite PMI was revised up to 51.9 (vs. flash 51.6), and the German reading also saw an upward revision to 54.4 (vs. flash 53.7). Finally, the ISM services index in the US came in at 56.9 (vs. 57.0 expected), though the employment index only rose to 47.9, so still remaining in contractionary territory. Prices paid though jumped to 64.2 vs 57.6, the highest since November 2018.

To the day ahead now, and as mentioned the US jobs report will likely provide the main highlight. Otherwise, we’ll also get German retail sales for July, the August construction PMIs from Germany and the UK, and the Canadian jobs report for August. Meanwhile, central bank speakers include the ECB’s Lane and Villeroy, along with the BoE’s Saunders.

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)FRIDAY MORNING/ THURSDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 29.61 POINTS OR 0.87%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 312.15 POINTS OR 1.25%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 260.10 POINTS OR 1.11%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 3.65%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.8408 /Oil UP TO 4173 dollars per barrel for WTI and 44.30 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 6.8408 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.8443 TRADE TALKS STALL//CORONAVIRUS//PANDEMIC//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 C CHINA

CHINA/USA TREASURIES

China announces through its mouthpiece, the Global Times that it may dump 20% of its treasury holdings and if a military  conflict, they will dump it all:

(zerohedge)

China To “Gradually” Sell 20% Of Its US Treasury Holdings, May Dump It All In Case Of “Military Conflict”: State Media

Ever since the early stages of the US-China trade/tech/virus/cold war four years ago, there were frequent rumors – which eventually gave way to increasingly legitimate chatter – that China was looking to go full “nuclear option” by selling some or all of its $1+ trillion of US Treasury securities, which incidentally has not been too far off the mark: as the chart below shows, after peaking in 2013, Chinese holdings of US debt have been steadily declining (and not so steadily in the aftermath of the Chinese devaluation), and are currently near the lowest level in 8 years.

In any case, while Beijing has been gradually reducing its Treasury holdings it has never shocked the market with a major liquidation; and yet this ultimate threat has now found its way into China’s premier state-run English language news source Global Times.

And while not official policy, the fact that GT on Thursday has made a US Treasury dump front page news, citing top “state-linked experts”, is cause for concern (and certainly suggests that the Fed may soon have to step in with another massive QE to purchase whatever China has to sell).

The Beijing-backed publication writes today that “China may gradually reduce its holdings of US Treasury bonds to about $800 billion from the current level of more than $1 trillion, as the ballooning US federal deficit increases default risks and the Trump administration continues its blistering attack on China” citing unnamed experts.

The facts are familiar to anyone who has been following the Sino-US trade war amid the US descent into fiscal hell, which as we noted earlier this week will result in the US budget deficit hitting a record $3.3 trillion and a record 107% debt/GDP in just 2-3 years: as the Global Times reviews, in the first six months of this year alone the world’s second-largest holder of US debts dumped some $106 billion worth of US Treasury bonds (annualized), and is looking to continue trimming its holdings “systematically” – the publication states.

A key reason stated for the liquidation is that China is anxious over risks associated with the surging debt level in the US, which is expected to actually exceed the size of the economy in 2021, which would be a first since the end of World War II. What’s worse is that as the CBO has shown, what happens over the next 3 decades is even more insane.

One expert cited in the GT report, professor at the Shanghai University of Finance and Economics Xi Junyang, emphasized that “China will gradually decrease its holdings of US debt to about $800 billion under normal circumstances.”

He added in what appears the most interesting and “dire scenario” quote in the article(or we’re perhaps meant to take it as a veiled threat under the guise of a mere aside):

“But of course, China might sell all of its US bonds in an extreme case, like a military conflict.”

Should China proceed with this highly symbolic if largely innocuous escalation, one can only imagine what the US retaliation would be.

 end

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

 

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

TURKEY

 

Gatestone talks about Erdogan’s gas discovery..not much of a big deal and it has not changed the value of the Turkish lira which is now trading at its nadir 7.4410

(courtesy Bekdil/Gatestone Institute)

Will Gas Discovery Change Turkey’s Political Course?

Authored by Burak Bekdil via The Gatestone Institute,

Turkey’s economy minister, Berat Albayrak, has said that the discovery of a large natural gas field off Turkey’s Black Sea coast will change Turkey’s [political] axis. “Neither the West, nor the East, Turkey’s new axis is Turkey,” said Albayrak, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s son-in-law. The discovery, at an estimated 320 billion cubic meters (bcm) of deep sea gas, marks a historic day for Turkey, Erdoğan said, the beginning of a new era.

Erdoğan announced that production at the site could start by 2023 — when Turks will go to ballot box for presidential and parliamentary elections. Officials in Ankara hopes the discovery will meet Turkey’s natural gas needs for 7-8 years, and earn the national economy $65 billion.

There is unprecedented euphoria in the pro-Erdoğan media. There is massive propaganda talk of “a Turkish moment,” of “Turkey on the way to becoming a global power.” All this is understandable in a country with a per capita GDP of barely $9,000, an ailing economy and a plunging national currency — and in need of epic stories to keep voters within the realm of hope. How much of this newfound Turkish hope is fact-based? Could the “Turkish moment” really be coming? Will Turkey be a global power with 320 bcm of natural gas?

There are a number of reasons to be cautious about the Turkish optimism.

Hydrocarbon discoveries in the shape of “breaking news” have been part of Erdogan’s propaganda machinery since 2004.

“This is the ninth discovery since then… I was hoping for them to discover ready-to-use gasoline this time,” joked columnist Yılmaz Özdil.

It might be useful to compare Turkey’s 320 bcm gas discovery with the proven reserves of some of the countries that are not “global powers:” Turkmenistan, 12.1 trillion cubic meters (tcm); Algeria, 4.5 tcm; Egypt, 2.2 tcm; Kazakhstan, 1.8 tcm; Uzbekistan, 1.5 tcm; Oman, 677 bcm; Pakistan, 567 bcm; Bangladesh, 549 bcm; Peru, 375 bcm; and Angola, 343 bcm. That is not really the elite club of world power.

Experts remain cautious.

“There are a lot of unknowns,” said analyst Atilla Yeşilada of Global Source Partners. “We don’t know how much it’s going to cost to extract, what the purity of the gas is, all at a time of record low gas prices.”

“Turkey, Yeşilada continued, “is committed to long-term contracts of buying piped gas from Iran, Azerbaijan and Russia. You can’t simply walk out of those contracts… Selling gas on the world market will not be easy either, as there is an oversupply.”

Ashley Sherman of Wood Mackenzie told Financial Times:

“This is an estimate based on just a discovery well that will need to be confirmed by further drilling of appraisal wells.”

Sinem Adar, a researcher at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs in Berlin, said that the timing of the announcement and the hype around it appeared partly to stem from the need to create some “excitement” to distract from economic problems.

Erdoğan’s economy czars apparently hoped that the president’s high-profile announcement of the gas discovery would reverse the Turkish lira’s 20% slide since the beginning of the year. Instead of racing ahead, the lira remained slightly weaker against major western currencies on trading days Friday and Monday.

Ironically, on the same day as Erdoğan announced the discovery, Fitch Ratings revised the outlook on Turkey’s Long-Term Issuer Default Ratings from “Stable” to “Negative”.

In July, Erdoğan converted an iconic sixth-century monumental Byzantine Orthodox church, Hagia Sophia, into a mosque, pleasing millions of conservative and nationalist Muslim Turks. On August 21, Erdoğan also issued a decree to open to Muslim worship another Orthodox church, the 1,000-year-old Kariye (or Chora), previously a popular Istanbul museum.

Erdoğan has also ordered an escalation of military tensions in the Aegean and Mediterranean seas with Greece. He has sent combat forces to Iraq, and northern Syria, and military trainers and equipment to Libya. “Turkey’s never-ending military challenge against world powers in seas and land” makes for hundreds of stories of Turkish heroism in the media, which is largely controlled by Erdoğan and his business cronies.

Now comes the promise of tens of billions of gas-dollars from the Turkish merchant of dreams. Experts say production at the Black Sea field could start in 7-10 years, at best. Erdoğan has promised 2023 for production. In that election year, Turkish voters may question the availability of natural gas, or, more realistically, they may ask Erdoğan why they are still paying high gas bills to heat their homes.

end

TURKEY/GREECE ET AL

Erdogan: ‘we will not yield to blackmail”…the fight goes on as Turkey wants to usurp Israel=Cyprus-Greece gas discovery in the Mediterranean

(courtesy AlMasdarNews)

“We’ll Not Yield To Blackmail”: Turkish Defense Minister Personally Flies In F-16 Over Aegean Sea

Via AlMasdarNews.com,

On Thursday, Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar inaugurated the “Year of Flight Training 2020-2021” for the Air Force, by conducting a tour on board an F-16 over the Aegean Sea, between Turkey and Greece.

Akar flew an F-16 fighter jet over the Aegean Sea, passing over the Dardanelles Strait where he saluted the Martyrs’ Monument that commemorates Ottoman Turkey’s World War I victory against the Allied forces at Gallipoli.

 

Turkey’s Defense Minister Hulusi Akar sits inside an F-16 jet.

“We will continue the struggle in the spirit of Canakkale, and we will work hard in a manner that befits all our martyrs, especially those who are here,” Akar said during his flight over the Aegean, addressing his companions in the other fighters.

The Turkish minister expressed his wishes that the new training year would be a successful year, according to what was published by “Anatolia” agency.

Earlier, Akar said that the armed forces are determined and able to protect the country, the people, their moral values ​​and their interests, whatever the cost.

He added in reference to soaring tensions with Greece, Cyprus and the EU:

“We will not yield to threats and blackmail in the eastern Mediterranean, and we will defend our rights in accordance with international laws and bilateral agreements.”

 

Turkey’s Defense Ministry/AP

This comes as the eastern Mediterranean gas exploration row gets hotter and increasingly militarized, given Greece and Cyprus say Turkey is violating their sovereign waters and Exclusive Economic Zones.

6.Global Issues

 

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

CORONAVIRUS UPDATE/INDIA/BRAZIL/GLOBE

(ZEROHEDGE)

 

India On The Cusp Of Passing Brazil As World’s 2nd-Biggest COVID-19 Outbreak: Live Updates

Summary:

  • India nears 4 million cases, on track to top Brazil
  • Berlusconi hospitalized with COVID
  • South Korea extends tight restrictions
  • Hungary reports single-day record as central European outbreak smolders

* * *

US coronavirus numbers continued to slow this week, even as rising numbers in Iowa, North Dakota, South Dakota and Alabama stoked concerns that the US pandemic is merely migrating once again. But as we head into the long holiday weekend in North America, the biggest story internationally is India, which is on the cusp of surpassing Brazil as the world’s largest outbreak.

Government officials in New Delhi have been pushing a mass testing drive to try and eradicate the virus from the hardest-hit areas, which include the densely populated slums of Delhi and Mumbai.

Once again, India reported 80k+ new infections in 24 hours on Friday, with 83,341 coronavirus infection, to be exact. The latest numbers put India’s total at 3.94 million, health ministry data showed on Friday, putting it within striking distance of 4 million, and surpassing Brazil, whose outbreak has finally begun to slow.

Asia’s worst-hit country is now just around 60,000 cases behind Brazil, which has around 4 million confirmed cases. The US, the worst-affected country, has more than 6 million cases.

India has recorded the largest daily tally in the world for the past month, as PM Narendra Modi continues to push ahead with reopening his economy after an economically devastating lockdown.

GDP data reported earlier this week revealed that India’s economy took a beating during the quarter ended in June, as the strict lockdown forced the people inside, and away from commerce.

While cases have soared, deaths in India from COVID-19 have remained relatively low, a sign of the aggressiveness of the government’s testing campaign. The ministry said on Friday that 1,096 people died from COVID-19 in the last 24 hours, taking India’s death toll to 68,472.

Former Italian PM Silvio Berlusconi has been admitted to a hospital in Milan after testing positive for COVID-19 earlier this week. The 83-year-old, who still leads the Forza Italia party, had been isolating at his home near Milan. A spokesman insisted his hospitalization was “a precautionary measure.”

As an outbreak in central Europe continues to smolder, Hungary reported a daily record of 459 coronavirus infections Friday, with new cases mostly affecting young people. Active cases climbed to 2,817, while the number of deaths rose by one to 621.

In South Korea, authorities are extending a set of strict social distancing measures in the Seoul area by a week to Sept. 13, Health Minister Park Neung-hoo said. The country will also extend nationwide level 2 social distancing steps by two weeks, and delay the start of in-person education until Sept. 20, vs Sept. 11.

Earlier Friday, Prime Minister Chung Sye-kyun warned that rushing to ditch the precautions could open the door to another flareup.

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings FRIDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1845 UP .0003 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS//CORONAVIRUS //PANDEMIC /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /MOSTLY GREEN

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 106.21 UP 0.121 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.3272   UP   0.0009  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/

 

USA/CAN 1.3095 DOWN .0043 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  FRIDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE BY 3 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.1845 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 29.61 POINTS OR 0.87% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 312.15 POINTS OR 1/25%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 3,65%// EUROPEAN BOURSES MOSTLY GREEN

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES MOSTLY GREEN 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 312.15 POINTS OR 1.25%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 29.61 POINTS OR 0.87%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN   3.65% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 260.10  POINTS OR 1.11%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1937.95

silver:$26.80-

Early FRIDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 0.644% !!! UP 0 IN POINTS from THURSDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 1.372 UP 1  IN BASIS POINTS from THURSDAY night.

USA dollar index early FRIDAY morning: 92.74 DOWN 0 CENT(S) from  THURSDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers FRIDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing  FRIDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.37% DOWN 2 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.03%  DOWN 1   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.35%//UP 3 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:1,02 UP 4 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 67 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.47% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.49% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR FRIDAY

Closing currency crosses for FRIDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1809  DOWN     .0031 or31 basis points

USA/Japan: 106.33 UP .240 OR YEN DOWN 24  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3225 DOWN .0038 POUND DOWN 38  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar UP 31 basis points to 1.3109

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 6.8425    ON SHORE  (DOWN)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.8450  (YUAN DOWN)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  7.4488 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +.03%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 4 IN basis points from THURSDAY at 0.681 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 1.426 UP 6 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 93.02 UP 32  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for FRIDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 51.72  0.88%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 215.11 POINTS OR 1.65%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 44.45 POINTS 0.89%

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 16.30 POINTS or 0.23%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 160.23 POINTS OR 0.82%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 40.28 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 42.86 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE FALLS:    75.45  THE CROSS HIGHER BY 0.17 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE LOWER BY 17 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.47 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  39.61//

 

 

BRENT :  42.43

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 0.714..down 8 basis points…

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 1.459..down 10 basis points..

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.1847 ( UP 6   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:106.21 UP .127 (YEN DOWN 13 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 92.74 DOWN 0 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.3283 UP 20  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 7.4443

 

 

the Russian rouble 75.33   DOWN 0.05 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( DOWN 5 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3051 UP 21 BASIS pts

 

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.47%

 

The Dow closed DOWN 159.48 POINTS OR 0.56%

 

NASDAQ closed DOWN 144.97 POINTS OR 1.27%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  30.35 CLOSED DOWN 3.25

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION:0.249%//libor dropping like a stone

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

Gamma-Unwind Sparks Markets’ Worst Week In 6 Months As Dollar Spikes

It’s the gamma, stupid!

That much accumulated “short gamma” doesn’t just go away in a ~4% flush – the Street is still very much in a dangerous space, and that flow is still out there in full “Resevoir Dogs” standoff fashion both to UPSIDE AND DOWNSIDE (again, short gamma = sell when mkt going lower, buy when mkt going higher)

Masa-son, Momo, & Gamma-gutted home-gamers…“do you feel lucky?”

Or maybe it’s time to stop playing the game that you really don’t understand…

US equity markets were ugly again today, Nasdaq down 5% at its lows, only to be bid back dramatically higher with the Dow managed to get green briefly

Still an ugly week for stocks overall that was the worst since March for the majors…

Today’s rebounds began as The Dow and Small Caps tested their 50DMA…

The Momo meltdown continued for the 4th week in the last 5…

Source: Bloomberg

A very whippy week in bond land as yields tumbled with stocks cratering yesterday and then were also dumped alongside stocks today and accelerated even as stocks bounced back…

Source: Bloomberg

On the week, yields were mixed with 5Y +3bps, 30Y -4bps…

Source: Bloomberg

10Y surged today, back above 70bps…

Source: Bloomberg

The Dollar managed to rise on the week… for the first time in 10 weeks!

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos were lower on the week but Ethereum managed to get back to even as Bitcoin Cash was the laggard…

Source: Bloomberg

While copper raged higher today, crude crashed and PMs were unable to hold any gains…

Source: Bloomberg

Oil was ugly with WTI back below $40..

Finally, you now have a long weekend to consider your exposure to this shitshow…

…and what happens next?

Source: Bloomberg

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/FOMC/USA

Another phony jobs report:  they add 1.37 million jobs

probably  a huge B/D plug

(zerohedge)

 

Another Blockbuster Jobs Report: US Unemployment Rate Unexpectedly Tumbles To 8.4% As Payrolls Beat Expectations

Amid a wide range of sellside estimates, and a whisper number that was either too high or too low depending on whom you asked, moments ago the BLS reported that in August, the number of payrolls was almost unexpectedly in line with consensus expectations: according to the August jobs report, some 1.371MM payrolls were created, essentially on top of the 1.35MM expected.

But if the Establishment survey was strong, the Household Survey was a blockbuster print, where a whopping 3.8 million newly employed workers were uncovered, as the total rose from 143.5 million to 147.3 million.

This was clearly a better than expected report, where some had expected a substantial slowdown in August due to a spike in virus cases across Sunbelt states, and U.S. labor-market rebound unambiguously extended for a fourth month in August, giving hope that the economy can continue to recover – and that Trump can parade with a strong labor market in the next two months  – despite Washington’s standoff over further government aid to jobless Americans and small businesses.

That said, a quarter of all job gains were thanks to government jobs (Census hiring), so we are confident that one can find issues with the report.

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for June was revised down by 10,000, from +4,791,000 to +4,781,000, and the change for July was revised down by 29,000, from +1,763,000 to +1,734,000. With these revisions, employment in June and July combined was 39,000 less than previously reported.

The one series tracked by all, the number of “temporarily” unemployed surprised as it dropped by more than 3 million to just 6.2 million, from 9.2 million the month before. As usual, debate over what defines “temporary” unemployment remains in the foreground.

This was offset by the number of people in the U.S. seeing permanent job losses, which rose by about half a million to 3.4 million, the highest level since 2013. “It points to the ongoing business closures, bankruptcies, and investment cuts across the country.” as BBG’s Katia Dimitrieva said.

Meanwhile, the percentage of the labor force unemployed for more than 15 weeks: this jumped to 5.1%, the highest since the financial crisis.

The average hourly earnings also printed generally in line, rising by 4.7% in August, unchanged from the previous month, and above the 4.5% expected.

According to the BLS, average hourly earnings for all employees rose by 11 cents to $29.47. Average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees increased by 18 cents to $24.81, following a decrease of 10 cents in the prior month. As the BLS notes, the large employment fluctuations over the past several months–especially in industries with lower-paid workers–complicate the analysis of recent trends in average hourly earnings.

Also worth noting is that the average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 0.1 hour to 34.6 hours in August. In manufacturing, the workweek rose by 0.3 hour to 40.0 hours, and overtime increased by 0.1 hour to 3.0 hours. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged at 34.0 hours.

The labor force participation rate rose modestly, from 61.4 to 61.7, as the Civilian Labor Force rose by 1 million to 160.8 million in August while the population rose by just 200K to 260.558MM.

Where there was a surprise was in the unemployment rate, which unexpectedly tumbled from 10.2% in July to 8.4%, smashing expectations of a 9.8% print. It looks like Trump wants to go into the November elections with a 7% or lower unemployment rate.

Despite all the superlatives, let’s not forget that In August, nonfarm employment was below its February level by 11.5 million, or 7.6 percent. Looking at the sector breakdown, government employment rose in August, as expected, reflecting temporary hiring for the 2020 Census. Notable job gains also occurred in retail trade, in professional and business services, in leisure and hospitality, and in education and health services.

Some more details:

  • Employment in government increased by 344,000 in August, accounting for one-fourth of the over- the-month gain in total nonfarm employment. A job gain in federal government (+251,000) reflected the hiring of 238,000 temporary 2020 Census workers. Local government employment rose by 95,000 over the month. Overall, government employment is 831,000 below its February level.
  • Retail trade added 249,000 jobs in August, with almost half the growth occurring in general merchandise stores (+116,000). Notable gains also occurred in motor vehicle and parts dealers (+22,000), electronics and appliance stores (+21,000), and miscellaneous store retailers (+17,000). Employment in retail trade is 655,000 lower than in February.
  • Employment in professional and business services increased by 197,000. More than half of the gain occurred in temporary help services (+107,000). Architectural and engineering services (+14,000), business support services (+13,000), and computer systems design and related services (+13,000) also added jobs over the month. Employment in professional and business services is 1.5 million below its February level.
  • Employment in leisure and hospitality increased by 174,000 in August, with about three-fourths of the gain occurring in food services and drinking places (+134,000). Despite job gains totaling 3.6 million over the last 4 months, employment in food services and drinking places is down by 2.5 million since February.
  • Employment in education and health services increased by 147,000 but is 1.5 million below February’s level. Health care employment increased by 75,000 over the month, with gains in offices of physicians (+27,000), offices of dentists (+22,000), hospitals (+14,000), and home health care services (+12,000). Elsewhere in health care, job losses continued in nursing and residential care facilities (-14,000). Employment in private education rose by 57,000 over the month.
  • Employment in transportation and warehousing rose by 78,000 in August, with gains in warehousing and storage (+34,000), transit and ground passenger transportation (+11,000), and truck transportation (+10,000). Employment in transportation and warehousing is down by 381,000 since February.
  • The other services industry added 74,000 jobs in August, reflecting gains in membership associations and organizations (+31,000), repair and maintenance (+29,000), and personal and laundry services (+14,000). Employment in other services is 531,000 lower than in February.
  • Financial activities added 36,000 jobs in August, with most of the growth in real estate and rental and leasing (+23,000). Employment in financial activities is down by 191,000 since February.
  • Manufacturing employment rose by 29,000, with gains concentrated in the nondurable goods component (+27,000). Despite gains in recent months, employment in manufacturing is 720,000 below February’s level.
  • Employment in wholesale trade increased by 14,000 in August, reflecting an increase of 9,000 in the nondurable goods component. Wholesale trade employment has declined by 328,000 since February.
  • Employment was changed little in mining, construction, and information.

The August payrolls report also provided some curious supplementary data, as follows:

In August, 24.3 percent of employed persons teleworked because of the coronavirus pandemic, down

  • from 26.4 percent in July.
  • In August, 24.2 million persons reported that they had been unable to work because their employer closed or lost business due to the pandemic–that is, they did not work at all or worked fewer hours at some point in the last 4 weeks due to the pandemic. This measure is down from 31.3 million in July. Among those who reported in August that they were unable to work because of pandemic-related closures or lost business, 11.6 percent received at least some pay from their employer for the hours not worked.  
  • About 5.2 million persons not in the labor force in August were prevented from looking for work due to the pandemic. This is down from 6.5 million in July. (To be counted as unemployed, by definition, individuals must either be actively looking for work or on temporary layoff.)

The bottom line, as Tony Bedikian, head of global markets at Citizens Bank, summarized: “We are still moving in the right direction and the pace of the jobs recovery seems to have picked up, but it still looks like it will take a while and likely a vaccine before we get back close to where we were at the beginning of this year. We continue to be optimistic that the economy has turned a corner and that we’ll continue to see steady progress.”

END

Where The August Jobs Were: Who Is Hiring And Who Is Firing

While the headline payrolls print was solid, rising by 1.371 million, and the Household Survey showed an even more remarkable increase as the number of employed Americans surged by 3.756 million helping send the unemployment rate sharply lower (as discussed earlier), a look at the composition of job gains reveals that below the “Great Job Numbers” surface as defined by president Trump, there was less than meets the eye.

For one, the one-time impact of the Census had an outlier effect on the August payrolls, due to 238,000 temporary jobs hired for the 2020 Census. This led to a 251,000 jump in Federal workers, and a near record 344,000 increase in total government jobs. This means that government jobs were a whopping 25% of all job gains in August.

Of course it wasn’t just government jobs, so here is a full breakdown of which sectors were responsible for the impressive August job gains:

  • Retail trade added 249,000 jobs in August, with almost half the growth occurring in general merchandise stores (+116,000). Notable gains also occurred in motor vehicle and parts dealers (+22,000), electronics and appliance stores (+21,000), and miscellaneous store retailers (+17,000). Employment in retail trade is 655,000 lower than in February.
  • Professional and business services employment increased by 197,000. More than half of the gain occurred in temporary help services (+107,000). Architectural and engineering services (+14,000), business support services (+13,000), and computer systems design and related services (+13,000) also added jobs over the month. Employment in professional and business services is 1.5 million below its February level.
  • Leisure and hospitality jobs increased by 174,000 in August, with about three-fourths of the gain occurring in food services and drinking places (+134,000). Despite job gains totaling 3.6 million over the last 4 months, employment in food services and drinking places is down by 2.5 million since February.
  • Education and health employment services increased by 147,000 but is 1.5 million below February’s level. Health care employment increased by 75,000 over the month, with gains in offices of physicians (+27,000), offices of dentists (+22,000), hospitals (+14,000), and home health care services (+12,000). Elsewhere in health care, job losses continued in nursing and residential care facilities (-14,000). Employment in private education rose by 57,000 over the month.
  • Transportation and warehousing rose by 78,000 in August, with gains in warehousing and storage (+34,000), transit and ground passenger transportation (+11,000), and truck transportation (+10,000). Employment in transportation and warehousing is down by 381,000 since February.
  • The other services industry added 74,000 jobs in August, reflecting gains in membership associations and organizations (+31,000), repair and maintenance (+29,000), and personal and laundry services (+14,000). Employment in other services is 531,000 lower than in February.
  • Financial activities added 36,000 jobs in August, with most of the growth in real estate and rental and leasing (+23,000). Employment in financial activities is down by 191,000 since February.
  • Manufacturing employment rose by 29,000, with gains concentrated in the nondurable goods component (+27,000). Despite gains in recent months, employment in manufacturing is 720,000 below February’s level.
  • Wholesale trade increased by 14,000 in August, reflecting an increase of 9,000 in the nondurable goods component. Wholesale trade employment has declined by 328,000 since February.

And a visual summary of all of the above, as it compares to the July job gains.

END
Mish echoes my thoughts that the jobs report was a phony
Mish Shedlock

Huge Discrepancies Cast Doubt On the Better Than Expected Jobs Report

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,

The BLS says the unemployment rate fell from 10.2% to 8.4%. Other BLS data casts doubt on the number.

Unemployment Rate Calculation

The unemployment rate is calculated by dividing the number of unemployed by the civilian labor force.

Unemployment Rate = 13.550 million / 160.838 million = 8.42%

Note that the reported headline jobs number today (+1.4 million) has nothing to do with anything. That is the establishment report number.

The number of employed (+3.756 million) does play into the calculation, but indirectly, as the labor force denominator.

Labor Force vs Employment

Note that employment rose by 3.756 million but the Labor Force only rose by 968,000. The impact of this discrepancy actually boosts the unemployment rate, but only by a tiny amount.

It’s the numerator that matters. The numerator should match continuing claims. It doesn’t.

Continuing Claims

The BLS reference week is the week that contains the 13th of the month. That is the week of August 9-15.

Major Discrepancy 

  • Continued claims for the week ending August 15 was 14.492 million as per the BLS.
  • Yet, the BLS also says the number of unemployed for that week was 13.550 million.

Minimum Number

14.492 million is the extreme lower bound we should see for the number of unemployed.

Why?

State claims only include those eligible for state unemployment insurance.

Missing From Continued Claims Number

  1. Gig workers
  2. Self-employed
  3. Those who have not worked long enough to qualify for state benefit requirements
  4. Those who have maxed out the number of weeks the states allow

Primary PUA Claims

Pandemic Assistance

Primary PUA claims for the reference week were 13.57 million, an increase of 2.6 Million.

PUA picks up all 4 categories missing from Continued Claims. But it also picks up some number of part-time workers.

But at least some of those 13.57 million did not work at all.

For the sake of argument, assume a mere 3.0 million of these workers did not work at all.

Unemployment Calculation

Unemployment Rate = (14.942 Million + 3.0 Million) / 160.838 Labor Force = 11.16%

Other Discrepancies 

I discussed other discrepancies in my Jobs report earlier today.

Part-Time Jobs

Part-Time Reporting Silliness

  • The net of voluntary vs involuntary part-time work is -33,000.
  • Total part-time work rose by 991,000

Don’t try to make sense of those numbers as they never add up. I list them as reported.

For details please see Jobs Report Much Better Than Expected, But Is It Believable?

Methodology Change

On top of this mess is a BLS methodology change that artificially lowered the number of initial and continued claims starting yesterday.

For discussion, please see Unemployment Claims Improve But It’s a Manipulation Mirage.

I suppose it is possible for the claims revision to be correct, but that still does not account for all the gig etc. workers on Pandemic Assistance that are genuinely unemployed.

Conclusion – Garbage

My conclusion is today’s unemployment rate numbers are total garbage.

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

SAN FRANCISCO

Just take a look at the public sector in San Francisco and all the money being paid to these fat cats

(Andrzejewski/Forbes)

Why San Francisco Is In Trouble: 19,000 Highly Compensated City Employees Earned Over $150,000

Submitted by Adam Andrzejewski, originally published in Forbes,

The San Francisco Bay Area is home to wonders of the modern world like the Golden Gate Bridge and Silicon Valley — as well as powerful progressive politicians like House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Governor Gavin Newsom, and U.S. Senator (and vice-presidential hopeful) Kamala Harris.

But the city is in trouble. Whenever we open the books, San Francisco consistently ranks among the worst tax-and-spend offenders.

In fact, the city’s $1.5 billion budget deficit isn’t stopping 18,759 highly compensated employees from each bringing home pay packages worth $150,000 (or more) annually.

We found truck drivers loaded up with $262,898; city painters making $270,190; firefighters earning $316,306; and plumbing supervisors cleaning up $348,291 every year. One deputy sheriff earned $574,595 last year – including $315,896 in overtime.

On average, the city’s 44,526 employees received pay and perks costing taxpayers $131,335 apiece. Four out of ten – 18,749 city workers – received a compensation package exceeding $150,000 per year.

The pay package includes retirement, health, overtime, pension, and other benefits on top of base salary.

Mayor’s Office – San Francisco Mayor London Breed cost taxpayers $452,421 – the highest paid mayor in the country. Breed enjoys a $342,974 salary and an additional $109,447 in benefit perks. Incredibly, there are another thirty-one staffers in her office with total comp exceeding $200,000 annually.

Police and Sheriff departments– The combined 4,418 employees of the city’s law enforcement agencies cost taxpayers $831 million in compensation last year for an average cost of over $188,000 per person. The police are called “peace officers.”

Because San Francisco is both a city and a county, it has both a sheriff and police department. Sheriff deputies run the jails, enforce civil judgements, and provide security for court cases, while the police patrol the city.

Police Chief William Scott earned $434,613 ($338,482 salary and $96,131 benefits). Four assistant chiefs (police and management) received between $346,528 and $445,539. Then, there were 195 employees with pay and perks exceeding $300,000 each.

Matt Dorsey, the director of strategic communications, responded to our comment request by saying that successful implementation of recent reforms was costly.

Sheriff Paul Miyamoto made $357,570 in total compensation. Overall, the sheriff paid out $100,000+ in overtime pay to fifty employees including $315,896 in overtime to a senior deputy sheriff with total comp of $574,595.

The sheriff responded to our request for comment through Nancy Hayden Crowley, director of communications: “My department continues to work on creative solutions to meet our staffing minimums and the public safety challenges that we all face on a reduced budget.”

Overall, the two departments employed 3,775 people – or roughly 8.5 out of every ten employees – with comp packages that exceeded $100,000.

Fire Department – The Fire Department had two chiefs last year. Outgoing Chief Joanne Hayes-White retired on a $311,560 annual pension and Chief Jeanine Nicholson replaced her in May 2019.

Last year, Hayes-White received $386,727 and Nicholson received $442,722 in total compensation. However, cash compensation alone is not the full story. The department maintains a $2 million four-bedroom landmark home as the chief’s residence.

A fire prevention lieutenant made $415,111 – more than double their $184,791 base salary with a whopping $230,320 in overtime. Fifteen employees received over $100,000 in overtime pay alone.

Only389 of the 1,559 Fire employees didn’t bring home a six-figure comp package last year.

Public Works – Cases of human waste on San Francisco streets spiked to 31,000 in 2019 – an all-time high. The agency in charge of cleaning up the mess has a quarter-billion-dollar budget ($224 million) earmarked for personnel costs alone.

Public works employs a staff of 1,790, including truck drivers ($218,495), arborists ($206,107), and general laborers ($188,975). Team members on the self-styled “poop patrol” cost taxpayers up to $184,000 each.

San Francisco’s self-titled “Mr. Clean,” Mohammed Nuru, Public Works Director, is best known for failed efforts to keep feces and hypodermic needles out of the public way.

In 2019, Nuru earned $380,120 in total compensation and his base salary alone spiked $65,000 over eight years. It wasn’t enough, apparently. In February 2020, the FBI arrested Nuru in an alleged porta-potty scandal.

Homeless Services & Supportive Housing – In 2016, the city added a new agency to serve its homeless residents. By 2019, the department had 148 employees, and 53 of them made more than $100,000.

The director, Jeff Kosinsky, brought home up to $238,182 annually, but each year the city’s homeless population continued to grow. The population rose to 8,000 this year (up 17-percent), and complaints of human waste on city streets spiked from 18,246 (2016) to 31,000 (2019).

Incredibly, the department can still claim a “good” job in comparison to other California cities: in Oakland, the homeless population nearly doubled during the same period.

Department on the Status of Women (DOSW) – The DOSW strives to “make San Francisco the best place for women and gender expansive persons to live, work, and learn in the United States.”

Our auditors also found, however, that DOSW saves money on its mostly-female cadre of ‘policy fellows.’ These interns are paid $20/hour while other San Fran government internships in civil engineering, surveying, and similar roles pay $29.50/hour.

War Memorial Opera House – This opera houseemploys twenty-five staffers (out of 120) with six-figure salaries, including a patrol officer bringing in $164,399 in total compensation. While the summer and fall performance seasons cancelled or moved online, our auditors could find no reports of layoffs or even pay reductions.

Asian Art Museum – This museumcost city taxpayers $7.8 million in employee compensation last year and is not open to visitors this year.

In 2019 Director Jay Xu made $302,145 in total compensation including a salary ($220,563) and benefits ($81,582). Other high-earners included the deputy director ($248,463), a maintenance superintendent ($200,802), a curator ($200,046), and a librarian ($174,355).

San Francisco’s long-term financial situation looks bleak.

The city has guaranteed $8.1 billion in pension and retiree healthcare that hasn’t been funded. Each city resident owes $9,000 just to cover the unfunded liability, according to data provided by fiscal accountability organization Truth In Accounting (2018).

While the city struggles to balance its books in light of remarkable economic and social upheaval, the unions are not cooperating. Representing San Francisco’s 44,525 city employees, organized labor aggressively hit back against a recent proposal to pause pay hikes.

San Francisco is a progressive utopia, so well-meaning fiscal hawks are going to have to cry a lot louder – or they won’t even have a voice at the table.

end

New York

New York Restaurants sue Cuomo for $2 billion dollars for refusing to allow them to return to indoor dining

(zerohedge)

NYC Restaurants Sue Cuomo For $2BN For Refusing To Allow Return Of Indoor Dining

After slamming President Trump for acting “like a king”, NY Gov Andrew Cuomo has mercifully allowed more businesses in the Empire State to finally reopen, even though COVID-19 cases haven’t seen anything approaching the kind of resurgences that officials have warned about.

Unlike pretty much every other state at this point (even neighboring New Jersey finally caved), New York hasn’t allowed the return of indoor dining. The issue is prompting an outpouring of rage directed at Cuomo and NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio, who have allowed protesters to gather night after night, while crushing the city’s small businesses. Adding insult to injury, de Blasio caved to the teachers union and spared more than 20,000 city employees who had been set for layoffs.

Gyms finally reopened in NYC Wednesday after city officials forced businesses to get cleared by the health department. Gyms around the state were allowed to reopen Aug. 24, but the delay until Sept. 2 was unique to New York City.

Source: NYT

The map above is lightly misleading: Most of NY state allows limited indoor dining. NYC is the only city in the state that hasn’t authorized any form of indoor dining, despite the fact that it has consistently reported positivity rates below 1% for weeks.

On Thursday, with the country focused on vaccine news, Cuomo announced that the state would allow casinos and malls to reopen on a limited capacity on Sept. 9. But restaurants in NYC would remain closed for the foreseeable future.

While de Blasio pushes for Cuomo and him to cooperatively develop a timeline for the return of indoor dining in NYC, Cuomo responded with a thinly veiled taunt, again reminding NYC leaders that “they have no legal authority to make that decision” on fully reopening restaurants. While he suggested that he’s “amenable” to reopening restaurants, he insisted that the city needs to have a well-thought-out plan that must be approved by the governor.

After all, Cuomo is the one who has the final say.

” … We have major problems in New York City with the compliance on the bars. I have beseeched New York City to do a better job on compliance and enforcement,” Cuomo said during a telephonic briefing with reporters. “We put together a task force to do the enforcement on Long Island and New York City … We have taken state police resources from many places to do that enforcement.”

“My opinion is restaurants should open. The question is how?” Cuomo said Thursday.

He then went on to promise that a “timetable” for reopening would be hashed out by the end of the month, though the answer might be “good news or bad news.”

“I think it’s our responsibility to give them as clear an answer in the month of September as possible, of where we are going,” the mayor said Wednesday. “If there can be a timeline, if there can be a set of standards for reopening, we need to decide that in the next few weeks and announce it, whether it is good news or bad news.”

But restaurant owners, facing the destruction of their livelihood, are refusing to wait. A frustrated group of restaurant owners slapped Cuomo with a class action lawsuit urging a judge to over rule the governor and allow NYC restaurants to start reopening their dining rooms.

The suit is seeking $2 billion in damages and alleges that the state is violating the constitutional rights of the owners of more than 150,000 New York City restaurants, many of which have already closed permanently. One study published Thursday claims that 60% of NYC restaurants will likely be forced to close if indoor dining doesn’t return soon. More than 350 city restaurants have signed on.

One restaurant, Il Bacco in Queens, joined the suit to argue that customers can simply walk a few blocks away into Nassau County if they want to eat indoors.

We imagine the state’s liberal judges will side with the government. But as time goes on, more people are starting to doubt that the indoor dining ban is a safety issue. Instead, might this be another attempt by Cuomo to politically hamstring his most hated Democratic rival, de Blasio?

end
40% of New Yorkers want to leave the city citing violence and COVID 19
(Watson//Summit)

Two In Five New Yorkers Want To Leave The City

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

A new survey has found that two in five New Yorkers want to leave the city, citing concerns over the faltering COVID economy and violent crime.

The survey, carried out by the Manhattan Institute, found that 22 per cent think the anemic economy is the biggest issue affecting the city while 21 per cent are concerned about crime and public safety.

Figures show that shootings have doubled and murders are up 50 per cent on the same period last year. This all unfolded after Mayor Bill De Blasio celebrated emptying out New York prisons to protect inmates from coronavirus.

“The survey found that two in five New Yorkers say that they would leave the city if they had the ability to live anywhere they wanted,” reports Fox 5.

There was also a 44% increase in home sales in the suburbs compared to the same time period last year as people flee for bigger homes in safer areas.

The sentiment is reflected in demand experienced by removal companies, which is off the charts.

“Long lines were seen outside of a number of U-Haul stations in the neighborhood across Saturday and Sunday, with moving vehicles lining residential streets and discarded furniture stacked on sidewalks left by locals seeking pastures new,” reported the Daily Mail.

As we document in the video below, with the economy on its knees, trash-strewn streets, violent crime soaring and people now working remotely from home, there’s literally no reason to live in a big city anymore and people are fleeing in droves.

*  *  *

In the age of mass Silicon Valley censorship It is crucial that we stay in touch. I need you to sign up for my free newsletter here. Also, I urgently need your financial support here.

Goya founder is learning that Latinos are turning to Trump.  They remember the reason that they left their former countries
(Showalter/AmericanThinker.com)

Goya CEO Is Back, Warning Dems The “Hatred & Destruction” Is Moving Latinos To Trump

Authored by Monica Showalter via AmericanThinker.com,

Just when the Democrats thought it was safe to go back into the leftist Latinx narrative, out comes the Goya CEO, Bob Unamue, and he’s warning that “hatred and destruction” from the riotous destruction of small businesses are driving Latino voters to President Trump. He has that way of reading the reality.

Unamue spoke with JustTheNews’s John Solomon, and painted Democrats an ugly, if real picture:

The rise in support for Trump is due to “fatigue over all the destruction and hatred, tearing down businesses, by people — a lot of people that are from outside the community — because if you’re within the community, you’re building it, you don’t want to tear down what you just built,” Robert Unanue, President and CEO, Goya Foods, told Just the News in a video interview. 

“And this is organized. People coming in from the outside to destroy. And so you know, we have two paths to take: Love and build, hate and destroy. We need to take the path of loving and building. And that’s why we’re looking at prosperity. How do we get our country back on our feet, and prosper in all aspects. So let’s love. Let’s build.”

That “outside the community” dynamic is very well known in much of the Latino community, with Cubans, Venezuelans and Nicaraguans familiar with politically organized “turba” repudiation mobs, sent in by communist rulers from outside the community to attack dissidents in their homes, as well as foreign “Sandalista” influences on domestic communist regimes. That would be the same Sandalistas so beloved of Bernie Sanders and Bill de Blasio, with the latter having actual experience as a bona fide Sandalista supporting the oppressive communist regime in Nicaragua in the 1980s and 1990s. To Latinos who have fled such hellholes, and who are now overrepresented in the entrepreneurial and startup communities here, this is a familiar memory, this is something that truly disgusts them. Goya itself was the target of this vile leftist mob, vowing to boycott the entire brand based on Unamue’s kind words to President Trump at a White House event in July, a courtesy he also extended to President Obama earlier. Unamue refused to back down and the boycott bombed, with boycott loudmouth celebrity Chrissie Teigen last seen using Goya products anyway. Boycott for thee but not for me.

And Unamue’s completely right that these voters are moving to Trump. Solomon cites a two-point rise in pan-Latino favorability to 32%, according to a new Hill-HarrisX poll, a steady rise from far lower numbers in the past, particularly with past Republican leaders and presidential candidates. The trend keeps rising.

And even a Latinx-type polling activist group shows very poor numbers for Joe Biden to start with – take a look at this meager offering from UnidosUS for Joe here.

It’s more than just riots driving Latinos to Trump. The stellar Trump economy, with its tax cuts and deregulation led to record-low Latino unemployment which has to be a plus.

Here’s another thing: The Latino community was hit harder than others by the COVID shutdowns, with huge job losses. Who’s trying to open the economy and who’s trying to obey “science” and “the experts.” More points for Trump.

Here’s a third thing: President Trump has made life either difficult or else hellish for Marxist forces in Latin America, where many Latinos still have ties.

Venezuelan-American voters, known as “MAGAzolanos” in Miami and Doral, Florida are speaking out and making ads. Cuban-Americans are very strong Trump supporters. Puerto Ricans on the mainland have reason to like President Trump too, given his criticism of their corrupt and incompetent socialists back on the island. And Colombian-American voters have been gratified to have seen Vice President Mike Pence and other administration officials speak out against the travesty of FARC Marxist narcoterrorists walking around free under the travesty “peace” deal, while the great liberator of their country, former President Alvaro Uribe, languishes under house arrest. It’s sickening and little known to the press coverage here, it’s been noted with favorability in the Colombian-American community.

The Goya CEO knew firsthand that the boycott against his company was going to be a dud, and now he’s saying Latinos are moving favorably toward Trump. He didn’t build his tiny kitchen-table business into a global behemoth by being stupid, woke, and naive. He knows the score. And he’s just handed the Democrats some very sour news compared to their ‘take-’em-for-granted’ expectations.

end

GOLDMAN SACHS/MALAYSIA 1MDB

Malaysia drops criminal charges against Goldman after they paid the $3.9 billion 1MDB penalty

(zerohedge)

Malaysia Drops Criminal Charges Against Goldman After $3.9BN 1MDB Penalty

 

After agreeing to pay a whopping $3.9 billion in fines and restitution, Goldman Sachs has finally been freed from one of its biggest albatrosses for its international business: Malaysian prosecutors have dropped all criminal charges in the 1MDB episode.

Reuters reports that, on Friday morning local time, Malaysian prosecutors announced that they would be withdrawing criminal charges against three Goldman Sachs units accused of misleading investors over a series of bond sales worth a combined $6.5 billion which helped fund the ill-fated sovereign wealth fund 1MDB (it stands for 1Malaysia Development Berhad).

The Goldman subsidiaries based in London, Hong Kong and Singapore had pleaded not guilty to criminal charges back in February and the bank has consistently denied wrongdoing, though gallons of ink have been spilled about the alleged skulduggery that reportedly involved officials as senior as CEO Lloyd Blankfein.

Now, the bank needs to settle things with the DoJ, which is also pursuing a criminal investigation. The DoJ estimates that $4.5 billion was siphoned from the fund by a group of insiders led by the fugitive financier Jho Low, the alleged mastermind, and former PM Najib Razak, who received hundreds of millions of dollars in proceeds from the fraud.

Late last year, the bank was reportedly on the verge of a settlement with US authorities for roughly $2 billion, but those talks have reportedly fallen apart.

end

iv) Swamp commentaries)

Biden tells Kenosha voters that if he details his tax policy, they will shoot him

(zerohedge)

Awkward! Biden Tells Kenosha Voters If He Details His Tax Policy, “They’ll Shoot Me”

Joe Biden was allowed out of his basement (again) today, for a quick visit to Kenosha and camera opp with Jacob Blake Sr. – the father of Jacob Blake, shot and paralyzed by Kenosha police.

Everything was going great until the former veep got the opportunity to actually speak to members of the public… then this happened…

The 77-year-old politician told a group of voters that if he took the time to lay out his taxation policy in more detail, “they’ll shoot me.”

Probably a poor choice of words, Joey!

Awkward!

end

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

NYT: Justice Dept. Plans to File Antitrust Charges Against Google in Coming Weeks

While there were disagreements about tactics, career lawyers also expressed concerns that Mr. Barr wanted to announce the case in September to take credit for action against a powerful tech company under the Trump administration..

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/03/us/politics/google-antitrust-justice-department.html

Whoever leaked to the NYT is asserting that Barr is out to get Google for political reasons.

@bespokeinvest: Third largest one-day decline (-4.96%) following a record high close for the Nasdaq in its history. You have to go way back to June to find the last time the Nasdaq had a larger decline the day after closing at a record high.

@QuickTakeDown: U.S. equities tumbled by the most in almost three months.  The S&P 500 Index retreated from a record high and fell more than 3.5%, its biggest drop since early June. The Nasdaq 100 sank 5%, its largest decline since March.

Thursday was a horrible day for stocks, but an even worse day for Joe Biden [Details below].

Initial Jobless Claims fell to 881k; 950k was expected.  This is the lowest reading since mid-March.  Continuing Claims declined to 13.254m from 14.492m (originally 14.535m); 14.0m was expected.

Fund Founder Daniel Kamensky Is Charged by U.S. Prosecutors

Marble Ridge Capital founder Dan Kamensky was accused by federal prosecutors of securities fraud and extortion, as the U.S. claimed he abused his position on a Neiman Marcus Group Inc. bankruptcy committee to purchase securities at an artificially low price…

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-03/fund-founder-daniel-kamensky-is-charged-by-u-s-prosecutors

WH Covid advisor Dr. Scott Atlas: Restore our lives using medical science, data and common sense

We know who is at risk. Only 0.2 percent of U.S. deaths have been people younger than 25, and 80 percent have been in people over 65the average fatality age is 78. A JAMA Pediatrics study of North American pediatric hospitals flatly stated that “our data indicate that children are at far greater risk of critical illness from influenza than from COVID-19.”…

    First is protecting the high-risk group with an unprecedented focus…. Second, we are carefully monitoring hospitals and ICUs in all counties and states with precision to prevent overcrowding, and rapidly increasing capacity in those few hospitals that may need additional personnel, beds, personal protective equipment (PPE) or other supplies.

https://thehill.com/opinion/healthcare/514948-restore-our-lives-using-medical-science-data-and-common-sense

It’s union power, not safety issues, that’s determining which US schools reopen this fall

78 percent of the nation’s 50 largest public districts aren’t planning to reopen with any in-person instruction.  Using data on the reopening decisions of 835 public districts covering about 38 percent of all students enrolled in K-12 public schools in the country, our study finds that school districts in places with stronger teachers’ unions are much less likely to offer full-time, in-person instruction this fall

https://nypost.com/2020/09/02/its-union-power-thats-determining-which-us-schools-reopen-this-fall/

The Fed balance sheet increased $27,074B (notes & bonds +$24,46B) for the week ended on Wed. https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/current/

Judicial Watch Files Suit after Secret Service Admits to Destroying Records Related to Alleged Biden Altercation with Secret Service Agent – On March 29, 2020, the Gateway Pundit republished a 2017 report alleging that an unidentified Secret Service agent was suspended for a week in 2009 for “shoving Biden after he cupped his girlfriend’s breast while the couple was taking a photo with him.” “The situation got so heated … that others had to step in to prevent the agent from hitting the then-Vice President,” according to the report…  https://www.judicialwatch.org/press-releases/destroyed-biden-records/

Secret Service Inadvertently Confirms Gateway Pundit Story about Biden Sexually Assaulting Agent’s Girlfriend – Speaking on the condition of anonymity, the agent asserted that, “We had to cancel the VP Christmas get together at the Vice President’s house because Biden would grope all of our wives and girlfriends’ asses.”… In a July 13, 2020 response to Judicial Watch’s request, the Secret Service appeared to confirm that a file on the alleged incident existed at some point, asserting, “[T]here are no responsive records or documents pertaining to your request in our files,” because “the above mentioned file(s) has been destroyed” due to “retention standards.”  The Secret Service added that, “[n]o additional information is available.”  It did not deny the incident had occurred…

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/09/secret-service-inadvertently-confirms-gateway-pundit-story-biden-sexually-assaulting-agents-girlfriend/

The reason that Team Biden has Joe on ice became clearer yesterday when Joe made an appalling gaffe.

@TrumpWarRoom: In Kenosha, Wisconsin following the shooting of Jacob Blake, Joe Biden starts to rant about raising taxes and then catches himself: “Not going to lay out for you, I won’t now because they’ll shoot me. [An unfathomably egregious and insensitive gaffe!]

If Joe’s appalling ‘shoot me’ gaffe was bad enough for Team Joe, a woman at the event squealed on Team Joe for giving her a question to ask Joe.  Team Biden got caught again rigging/scripting Q & As!!!

Kenosha’s Portia Bennett: “I’m just going to be honest, Mr Biden. I was told to go off this paper, but I can’t.  You need the truth and I’m part of the truth…There’s a difference between a rioter and a protestor…https://twitter.com/ConservaMomUSA/status/1301624072498024448

PBS’ @LisaDNews: YOUNG KENOSHA WOMAN TO BIDEN about anger and frustration: “What we need is action.”  “We need these police officers treated the way we would be treated.”  “I’m only 31, and I’ve seen enough in these past two years to say, I’m tired.”

@TCPigott: A confused Joe Biden asks, “what am I doing?”   https://twitter.com/TCPigott/status/1301619183814414336

Trump campaign statement on Biden’s 1st Trip to Wisconsin

People participating in his church meeting in Kenosha were handed scripts to read from during the public comment period, proving again that Biden’s handlers don’t trust him in uncontrolled situations…

https://www.donaldjtrump.com/media/trump-campaign-statement-on-bidens-1st-trip-to-wisconsin

@TrumpWarRoom [unspecified date]: Joe Biden motions to staff to change the teleprompter: “And uh, in addition to that, uh, in addition to that, we have to, uh, make sure that we uh, we are in a position that we are, well, let me, let me go to the second thing. I’ve spoke enough on that.”

https://twitter.com/TrumpWarRoom/status/1301257154825981953

Biden in Kenosha: “If you’re a white guy who can afford a lawyer, and you’re charged with a crime, you’re not charged with nine crimes. Nine, and given nine alternatives and say, ‘if you plead to the lay, the, the least one, we’re gonna put you on probation,’ and, but, and you have no lawyer.  You have a public defender…”  https://twitter.com/BreitbartNews/status/1301616608847294464

Biden talking about his crime bill on Wednesday: https://twitter.com/GreggJarrett/status/1301213763111133185

Tucker Carlson lit up Biden for meeting with Jacob Blake Sr. (father of Kenosha cop shooting victim).  Blake has posted anti-Semitic messages on social media and a picture of Chris in a toilet.

https://twitter.com/CurtisHouck/status/1301674154819833856

There are no clips of Kenosha crowds for Biden.  Social media reports said few people showed up.

DJT’s crowd in Latrobe, PA yesterday: https://twitter.com/kayleighmcenany/status/1301669514258665479

DJT cut loose on Joe.  “Joe Biden spent the last 47 years shipping Pennsylvania jobs to China and foreign nations.  I have spent the last four years bringing them back home…  Biden’s plan is to appease the domestic terrorists, and my plan is to arrest them and prosecute them…This election is about safety and this election is about jobs.”

2020 US Presidential Election Odds: 58% of people expect Donald Trump to defeat Joe Biden

https://www.oddschecker.com/us/insight/specials/politics/20200902-2020-us-presidential-election-odds-58pp-of-people-expect-donald-trump-to-defeat-joe-biden

Fox News Polls show Biden with a big lead over DJT in some battleground states (WI by 8, which no one believes) and little DJT movement from the convention.  Fox Polls have tended to oversample Dems.    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/514895-fox-news-poll-finds-biden-ahead-of-trump-in-three-battleground-states

@seanmdav: Who knows what will happen in November, but nobody at this point—not even the Biden campaign—believes Biden is currently up by 8 in Wisconsin.  It’s also worth noting that Fox’s 2018 Senate polls botched races in Indiana by 13 (!) points and Missouri by 6

Fox News Host Admits She Doesn’t Trust Fox Polls, Deliberately Misleads Pollsters

https://www.thedailybeast.com/fox-host-melissa-francis-admits-she-doesnt-trust-fox-polls-deliberately-misleads-pollsters

New York Post: Fox News ‘Misrepresented’ Impeachment Poll

Braun Research, the pollster firm that conducted the survey, noted that 48 percent of its respondents were Democrats; however, the Post revealed that the “actual breakdown” based on party affiliation is 31 percent Democrat, 29 percent Republican, and 38 percent independent…

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2019/10/13/new-york-post-fox-news-misrepresented-impeachment-poll/

New Fox Poll Tilts Democratic   May 20, 2011

Earlier this year, Fox News switched its polling firm from Opinion Dynamics to Anderson Robbins Research (D)/Shaw and Company Research (R), a joint bipartisan collaboration.   This change has produced a shift in the Fox News poll. Previously, it was usually on the right hand side of the RealClearPolitics’ average of Obama’s job approval, along with Gallup, Quinnipiac, and Rasmussen.Lately, however, it has fallen on the left, mixed in with polls from major media outlets…

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/weekly-standard/new-fox-poll-tilts-democratic

@realDonaldTrump: Based on the massive number of Unsolicited & Solicited Ballots that will be sent to potential Voters for the upcoming 2020 Election, & in order for you to MAKE SURE YOUR VOTE COUNTS & IS COUNTED, SIGN & MAIL IN your Ballot as EARLY as possible. Election Day, or Early Voting after you Vote, go to your Polling Place to see whether or not your Mail In Vote has been Tabulated (Counted). If it has you will not be able to Vote & the Mail In System worked properly. If it has not been Counted, VOTE (which is a citizen’s right to do). If your Mail In Ballot arrives, which it should not, that Ballot will not be used or counted in that your vote has already been cast & tabulated. YOU ARE NOW ASSURED THAT YOUR PRECIOUS VOTE HAS BEEN COUNTED, it hasn’t been “lost, thrown out, or in any way destroyed”. GOD BLESS AMERICA!!

@TomFitton: MILLIONS of extra names on voter rollsIn just two states (North Carolina and Pennsylvania), @JudicialWatch found nearly 2 million extra names on the rolls. #VoterFraud

@Breaking911: NYPD cops were filmed saving a man’s life after he was shot in the Bronx; some members of the community are outraged that the officers weren’t wearing masks.

https://twitter.com/Breaking911/status/1301316805760253952

Lauren Boebert for Congress (R-CO3) @laurenboebert: Between Pelosi’s hair trip and now Ruth BaderGinsburg officiating a wedding [sans mask], I think it’s pretty safe to say that polling places should be open for Election Day?   https://twitter.com/laurenboebert/status/1301262294593286148

WH Press Secretary McEnany savaged Pelosi for her haircut and delaying Covid relief for Americans.

https://twitter.com/bennyjohnson/status/1301570864933228544

McEnany plays Pelosi hair salon footage, says speaker ‘ought to apologize’ to Americans

“Nancy Pelosi was not in the halls of Congress when I asked where she was, she was not working in good faith to make a deal for the American people,” McEnany said during a White House briefing. “Nope, Nancy Pelosi was found in San Francisco, at a hair salon, where she was indoors, even though salons in California are only open for outdoor service.”… “Before she skipped town to violate her state’s health guidelines, Pelosi proposed a bill,” McEnany said. She noted that the HEROES Act, the House’s coronavirus relief proposal, did not contain any additional funding for the Paycheck Protection Program, “funding that would help the very small business she has bizarrely accused of plotting against her…

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/mcenany-footage-pelosi-hair-salon-speaker-ought-to-apologize

@realDonaldTrump: Crazy Nancy Pelosi said she was “set up” by the beauty parlor owner when she improperly had the salon opened (and didn’t wear a MASK!). Does anyone want a Speaker of the House who can be so easily SET UP?

Summary of FBI interview with Maltese professor undercuts origins of Russia probe

Joseph Mifsud told agents in early 2017 that he did not have advance knowledge the Russians had hacked Hillary Clinton’s emails, undercutting a key allegation that started the Russia collusion probe.

    Whoa – the Joseph Mifsud 302 is out. Mifsud said he had no advance knowledge Russia had DNC emails and did not make any offer to Papadopoulos And there is a post-interview email from Mifsud to FBI yet to be released A very short interview for a purported “Russian agent” pic.twitter.com/VfdQpiLXxI — Techno Fog (@Techno_Fog) September 2, 2020…The exchange between Papadopolous and Downer is widely acknowledged to have been the catalyst that led to the opening of the FBI’s investigation into the Trump campaign…

https://justthenews.com/accountability/russia-and-ukraine-scandals/feds-knew-early-2017-papadolous-claim-about-clinton

Mysterious Maltese professor denied making offer to Papadopoulos, new docs show

Joseph Mifsud, the mysterious Maltese professor who ex-FBI Director James Comey referred to as a “Russian agent” in an op-ed, denied any advance knowledge that Russia had dirt on Hillary Clinton and told investigators he never made any offers to George Papadopoulos, the former Trump campaign strategist, according to newly released FBI documents…

    Former Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s report on the Russia investigation stated that Mifsud was the person who told Papadopoulos in April 2016 that Russians had “dirt” in the form of emails on Hillary Clinton that could damage her chances of becoming president…

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/mysterious-maltese-professor-denied-making-offer-to-papadopoulos-new-docs-show

@LeeSmithDC: Mueller team intentionally misled court, in court filings claimed George P hindered FBI investigation. Fact: George offered to help FBI find Mifsud, even said he’d be in DC Feb 2017, when they interviewed Mifsud. SCO lawyers who signed those docs should be in trouble.

In Papers Saying Papadopoulos Lied, FBI Reveals It’s Either Lying Or Incompetent

https://thefederalist.com/2018/08/20/papers-saying-papadopoulos-lied-fbi-fbi-shows-either-also-lying-incompetent/

 

Violent Desperate Dems, Biden’s Disaster Platform, Economic Update

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com (WNW 447 9.4.2020)

Dr. Paul Craig Roberts said it best this past week on USAWatchdog.com.  Dr. Roberts said, “You have to assume the Democrats believe they have already lost, and so they will figure out how to steal it.”  One of the tactics is outright violence and threats.  Dems boast it will continue if Biden does not get elected to the White House in November.  Voter fraud by mail is another ploy Dems are trying, but it’s not going to work.

You want to know why Biden is always attacking President Trump?  It keeps him from talking about the disastrous Democrat plans for the nation that will dramatically raise your taxes, defund the police and put illegal aliens above citizens of America.  It’s also all sorts of free stuff for Dem voters, and you are going to pay dearly for it.

The economy is going so bad that the latest 881,000 new unemployment filings is good news.  All they can say is at least it’s not another million unemployed.  Nearly 59 million Americans have filed for first-time unemployment benefits in the last 24 weeks.  Maybe that’s why the stock market rolled over and plunged more than 800 points on Thursday alone.  More downside to come?  The answer is yes.  Greg Hunter will explain why.

Join Greg Hunter as of USAWatchdog.com as he talks about these stories and more in the Weekly News Wrap-Up.

(To Donate to USAWatchdog.com Click Here)

After the Wrap-Up: 

Well that is all for today

I will see you TUESDAY night.

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