SEPT 10//GOLD UP $8.85 TO $1955.80//SILVER UP 16 CENTS TO $27.06//GOLD TONNAGE STANDING AT THE COMEX; 11.9 TONNES//EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE A LOT LESS//CHINA VS USA//ECB KEEPING RATES THE SAME: ALSO SIGNAL THAT THEY WILL LET THE EURO RISE//BOJO WINNING AGAINST THE EU: TOM LUONGO A MUST READ//BEIRUT: ANOTHER FIRE AT THE MAJOR PORT//CORONAVIRUS UPDATE//UNEMPLOYMENT BENEFITS CONTINUE TO RISE//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

GOLD:$1955.80  UP $8.85   The quote is London spot price

 

 

 

 

 

Silver:$27.06 UP $.16   London spot price ( cash market)

 

 

 

Yesterday, the crooks gave us a one day reprieve.  They have raided 5 out of the last 6 days and it sure looks like another raid is called for on Friday.

What is most interesting is the fact that issuance of exchange for physicals are now a lot less on a daily basis due to the fact that Londoners are exercising these vehicles and even paying a premium to do so.  This is why we are witnessing a lot of gold leaving the comex.

 

Here is your data for today…

 

H

 

 

 

DONATE

Click here if you wish to send a donation. I sincerely appreciate it as this site takes a lot of preparation.

Closing access prices:  London spot

i)Gold : $1945.60  LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

 

ii)SILVER:  $26.88//LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

CLOSING FUTURES PRICES:  KEY MONTHS

 

 

OCT GOLD:  $1966.60  CLOSE 1.30 PM//   SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE OCT /: $.60 CONTANGO//$2.40 BELOW NORMAL CONTANGO  //

 

 

DEC. GOLD  $1964.90   CLOSE 1.30 PM      SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE DEC   $9.10/ CONTANGO   ($3.00 ABOVE NORMAL CONTANGO)

 

CLOSING SILVER FUTURE MONTH

 

SILVER SEPT COMEX CLOSE;   $27.17…1:30 PM.//SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE SEPT//  :    ( 11 CENT CONTANGO// 8 CENTS ABOVE NORMAL CONTANGO)

SILVER DECEMBER  CLOSE:     $27.24  1:30  PM SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE DEC.       : 18  CENTS PER OZ  CONTANGO ( 6 CENTS ABOVE NORMAL CONTANGO)

 

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

 

COMEX DATA

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

receiving today:   132/243

issued:  81

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: SEPTEMBER 2020 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,944.700000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 09/09/2020 DELIVERY DATE: 09/11/2020
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
132 C SG AMERICAS 1
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 14
624 C BOFA SECURITIES 1
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 41
657 H MORGAN STANLEY 159
661 C JP MORGAN 81 132
661 H JP MORGAN 25
686 C INTL FCSTONE 2
690 C ABN AMRO 11
709 C BARCLAYS 1
732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 3
737 C ADVANTAGE 2 3
905 C ADM 10
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 243 243
MONTH TO DATE: 3,804

issued  0

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  SEPT CONTRACT: 243 NOTICE(S) FOR 23,400 OZ  (0.7558 tonnes)

 

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  3804 NOTICES FOR 380,400 OZ  (11.832 tonnes) 

 

 

SILVER

 

 

4 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 20,000  OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month: 9104 for 45.520 MILLION oz

 

BITCOIN MORNING QUOTE  $10272  UP 53

 

BITCOIN AFTERNOON QUOTE.: $10,307 UP 88

 

GLD AND SLV INVENTORIES:

WITH GOLD UP $8.85 AND NO PHYSICAL TO BE FOUND ANYWHERE:

WITH ALL REFINERS CLOSED//MEXICO ORDERING ALL MINES SHUT:   WHERE ARE THEY GETTING THE “PHYSICAL?

A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD…A DEPOSIT OF 2.92 TONNES INTO THE GLD..

 

 

 

GLD: 1,252.96 TONNES OF GOLD//

 

 

WITH SILVER UP $0.16  TODAY: AND WITH NO SILVER AROUND:

WE HAD A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//

A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.607 MILLION OZ  (PROBABLY USED IN THE RAIDS THESE PAST FEW DAYS)

 

RESTING SLV INVENTORY TONIGHT:

 

SLV: 558.562  MILLION OZ./

 

 

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

IN SILVER THE COMEX OI ROSE BY A TINY 367 CONTRACTS FROM 159,177 UP TO 159,358, AND CLOSER TO OUR NEW RECORD OF 244,710, (FEB 25/2020. THE  GAIN IN OI OCCURRED WITH OUR  $0.06 RISE IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. IT SEEMS THAT THE GAIN IN COMEX OI IS  DUE TO ATTEMPTED BANKER  SILVER SHORT COVERING..  COUPLED AGAINST A VERY WEAK EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE, ZERO  LONG LIQUIDATION, A GOOD INCREASE IN SILVER OZ  STANDING  AT THE COMEX FOR SEPT..  WE HAD A SMALL NET GAIN IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 982 CONTRACTS  (SEE CALCULATIONS BELOW).

 

 

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A STRONG AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A WEAK SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE:   SEP 0;  DEC:  405, MARCH  0 FOR ZERO ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  405 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 475 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 405 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 2.025 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE $0.06 CENT RISE IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

7.32     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

2.630     MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOV.

20.970   MILLION OZ  FINAL STANDING IN DEC

5.075     MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JAN

1.480    MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN FEB

23.005  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAR

4.660  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR APRIL

45.220 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAY

2.205  MILLION OF FINAL STANDING FOR JUNE

86.470 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JULY.

6.475 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN AUGUST

52.090 MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT

 

WEDNESDAY, AGAIN OUR CROOKS USED COPIOUS PAPER IN ORDER TO LIQUIDATE SILVER’S PRICE…AND THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE $0.06) ).. AND, OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS  WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE ANY SILVER LONGS. THE RAIDS THESE PAST 5 DAYS WERE ORCHESTRATED BY THE BIS WITH MEGA ASSISTANCE FROM OUR CRIMINAL BANKERS. THEIR CHIEF AIM WAS TO REMOVE SPECULATORS FROM THEIR LONG POSITIONS.THEY FAILED AGAIN WITH WEDNESDAY’S TRADING….   WE ALSO HAD  ii)  A VERY WEAK ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS 2) A STRONG GAIN IN SILVER OZ STANDING  FOR SEPTEMBER,  AND 3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION.  YOU CAN BET THE FARM THAT OUR BANKERS  ARE DESPERATE TO LIQUIDATE THEIR HUGE SHORT POSITIONS IN SILVER..

 

 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

SEPT.

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY /FOR MONTH OF SEPT:

5920 CONTRACTS (FOR 7 TRADING DAY(S) TOTAL 5920 CONTRACTS) OR 29.600 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 846 CONTRACTS OR 4.2285 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF SEPT: 29.60 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 4.22% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

 

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2020 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          1,415.68 MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2020 EFP TOTALS SO FAR: 181.61 MILLION OZ

FEB 2020 EFP’S TOTAL :  ……     259.600 MILLION OZ

MARCH EFP’S …..                     452.280 MILLION OZ  //TOTALS//AND A NEW RECORD FOR THE MONTH)

APRIL EFP                               95.355 MILLION OZ.  (EX. FOR PHYSICALS BECOMING A LOT LESS)

MAY EFP FINAL:                     77.27 MILLION OZ

JUNE EFP                              71.15 MILLION OZ.

JULY EFP                               133.95 MILLION OZ/ (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS STARTING TO RISE EXPONENTIALLY AGAIN)

AUGUST EFP                         127.46 MILLION OZ (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS STARTING TO DECREASE AGAIN)

SEPT EFP                                27.600 MILLION OZ (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS DRAMATICALLY FALLING OFF A CLIFF)

 

RESULT: WE HAD A TINY SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 367, WITH  OUR  $0.06 RISE IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ///WEDNESDAY.…THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A VERY WEAK SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 405 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER

 

TODAY WE GAINED A SMALL SIZED 772 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES (WITH OUR  $0.06 GAIN IN PRICE)//

 

 

THE TALLY//EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

i.e 405 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH A SMALL SIZED INCREASE OF 377 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND HAPPENED WITH OUR $0.06 CENT GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER/AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $26.90 // WEDNESDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY. 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 0.786 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 113% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW AUGUST  DELIVERY MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 4 NOTICE(S) FOR 20,000 OZ OF SILVER.

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018. AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.70//TODAY’S RECORD OF 244,705 WAS SET WITH A PRICE OF: 18.91 (FEB 25/2020)

 

 

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 10.025 MILLION OZ/ SEPT 43.030 MILLION OZ//OCT: 7.665 MILLION OZ//   NOV: 2.630 MILLION OZ//DEC:  20.970 MILLION OZ; JAN:  5.075 MILLION OZ.//FEB 1.480 MILLION OZ//MAR: 23.005 MILLION OZ/APRIL 4.660 MILLION OZ//MAY  45.220 MILLION OZ//JUNE: 2.205 MILLION OZ// JULY 86.470 million oz//AUGUST 6.475 MILLION OZ//SEPT. 52.090 MILLION OZ//
  2. THE  RECORD PRIOR TO TODAY WAS SET IN FEB 25/2018:  244,710 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $18.90//.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

 

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 

 

GOLD

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST SURPRISINGLY ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 7,002 CONTRACTS TO 564,459 AND CLOSER TO OUR NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE STRONG SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI OCCURRED WITH OUR CONSIDERABLE RISE IN PRICE  OF $19.55 /// COMEX GOLD TRADING// WEDNESDAY//WE HAD ATTEMPTED BUT FAILED  BANKER SHORT COVERING AS WE HAD  A STRONG GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES… NOBODY HAS LEFT THE GOLD ARENA.  WE ALSO HAD A HUGE ADVANCE IN TONNAGE STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR SEPTEMBER ACCOMPANYING A SMALL EXCHANGE FOR  PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. THIS ALL HAPPENED WITH OUR  RISE IN PRICE OF $19.55. 

 

 

WE HAD A VOLUME OF 0    4 -GC CONTRACTS//OPEN INTEREST  127//

 

 

WE GAINED A STRONG SIZED 8386 CONTRACTS  (26.08 TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

 

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A SMALL SIZED 1384 CONTRACTS:

CONTRACT .; AUG 0 AND OCT: 0 DEC: 894; FEB: 500  ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO//TOTAL: 1384.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 564,459. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EXCHANGE DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 8,386 CONTRACTS: 7002 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 1384 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 8386 CONTRACTS OR 26.08 TONNES.  WEDNESDAY, WE HAD A GAIN OF $19.55 IN GOLD TRADING……

AND DESPITE THAT GAIN IN  PRICE, WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL/TWO EXCHANGES GOLD TONNAGE OF 26.08 TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE (IT ROSE $19.55)WE HAD ATTEMPTED BUT FAILED BANKER SHORT COVERING OPERATION . WE HAD SMALL ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGES FOR PHYSICAL. THE BANKERS COULD NOT FLEECE ANY OF OUR SPECULATOR LONGS DESPITE THE 5TH RAID DAY IN A ROW .

 

 

 

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:

WE HAD A SMALL SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (1384) ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI  (7,002 OI): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES:  8386 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1 )ATTEMPTED AND FAILED BANKER SHORT COVERING ,2.)A HUGE ADVANCE IN  STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR THE FRONT SEPT. MONTH,  3) NO LONG LIQUIDATION;  4) STRONG COMEX OI GAIN AND 5) SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL  AND  …ALL OF THIS WAS COUPLED WITH OUR GAIN IN GOLD PRICE TRADING//TUESDAY//$8.20.

 

 

WE ARE BEGINNING TO WITNESS A LACK OF EXCHANGE FOR GOLD PHYSICALS UNDERWRITTEN DUE TO PREMIUMS STARTING TO REAPPEAR IN THE FUTURE PRICE OF GOLD VS LONDON SPOT. THE COST TO THE BANKERS IS JUST TOO GREAT TO ENGAGE IN THESE VEHICLES ONCE THIS OCCURS.

THE FACT THAT WE ARE CONTINUALLY SEEING A DROP IN COMEX OPEN INTEREST AND VOLUMES COUPLED WITH LESS EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS PROBABLY MEANS THAT OUR LONGS ARE ALREADY DEPARTING NEW YORK FOR THE NEW PHYSICAL PLATFORM AT LONDON’S LME.

 

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS//OUTLINE

SPREADING OPERATIONS/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD  (WE SWITCH OVER TO SILVER ON OCT  1)

 

 

OUR SPREADING OPERATION HAS NOW SWITCHED INTO GOLD…..

SPREADING OPERATION FOR OUR NEWCOMERS:

 

FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS:

 

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED IN GOLD  AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF OCT.

 

 

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEW, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE SPREADERS AND THE CRIMINAL ELEMENT BEHIND IT:

 HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

 

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR SILVER..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR GOLD.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

 

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

.

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO GOLD AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT. HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT FOR GOLD:

 

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF SEPT. BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN GOLD WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

 

 

 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2020 INCLUDING TODAY

SEPT.

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF SEPT : 11,695, CONTRACTS OR 11,695, oz OR 36.38 TONNES (7 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 1671 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 7 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 36.38 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2019, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 36.38/3550 x 100% TONNES =1.024% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD HAS DISSIPATED THIS MONTHTHE COST TO THE BANKERS TO CARRY THESE CONTRACTS IN LONDON IS BECOMING TOO GREAT FOR THEM.

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2020 TO DATE   3,436.54  TONNES

JANUARY 2220 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE; : 570.19 TONNES

FEB 2020 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE :            653.78 TONNES

MARCH TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE                1,098.93  TONNES  (*AND A NEW ALL TIME RECORD ISSUANCE//22 DAYS)

APRIL TOTAL EFP. ISSUANCE:               243.45  TONNES  (EFP ISSUANCE BECOMING A LOT LESS)

MAY TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                     248.68 TONNES (EFP ISSUANCE STILL LOW// PREMIUM COST TO THE BANKERS IS HUGE..SO ISSUANCE IS LESS)

JUNE TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                     192.06 TONNES

JULY TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;                       313.09 TONNES ..(EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS REVERSE COURSE AND ARE NOW INCREASING!)

AUGUST TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;                 150.78 TONNES  FINAL (AGAIN: RETREATING IN NUMBERS)

SEPT TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                       36.38 TONNES  (AGAIN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL NUMBERS IN FULL RETREAT)

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

 

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, ROSE BY A TINY SIZED 367 CONTRACTS FROM 158,991, UP TO 159,358 AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 3/4 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

THE TINY SIZED GAIN IN OI SILVER COMEX WAS PRIMARILY DUE TO 1)   SOME ATTEMPTED BUT FAILED BANKER SHORT COVERING  , 2) A VERY WEAK ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (SEE BELOW), 3) A STRONG GAIN IN OUNCES STANDING FOR SILVER AT THE COMEX FOR SEPT.,  AND  4) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION,

 

 

 

 

EFP ISSUANCE 405 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 SEPT: 0 AND DEC. 405 AND MARCH:  0  ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 405 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI GAIN OF 367 CONTRACTS TO THE 405 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A SMALL SIZED GAIN OF 772 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 3.860 MILLION  OZ, OCCURRED WITH OUR 6 CENT GAIN IN PRICE///

 

 

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL..THE EVIDENCE IS CLEAR: HUGE AMOUNTS OF PHYSICAL STANDING FOR BOTH  SILVER AND GOLD .

(report Harvey)

 

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)WEDNESDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 19.80 POINTS OR 0.61%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 155.39 POINTS OR 0.64%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 202.93 POINTS OR 0.88%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .51%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.8379 /Oil UP TO 37.50 dollars per barrel for WTI and 40.33 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 6.8379 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.8380 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED//CORONAVIRUS /PANDEMIC  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

 

COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

 

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST  ROSE BY BY A STRONG SIZED 7002 CONTRACTS TO 564,459 MOVING CLOSER TO  OUR  RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020).  AND ALL OF THIS STRONG COMEX INCREASE OCCURRED WITH OUR STRONG  GAIN OF $19.55 IN GOLD PRICING /WEDNESDAY’S COMEX TRADING/). WE ALSO HAD A SMALL EFP ISSUANCE (1384 CONTRACTS),.  THUS,  WE HAD  1) ATTEMPTED (EARLY) BUT FAILED BANKER SHORT COVERING AS WE HAD A  STRONG GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 9533 CONTRACTS,…….. , PLUS WE HAD 2)  ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION  AND 3)  A HUGE  INCREASE IN TONNAGE  STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX//SEPT. DELIVERY MONTH (SEE BELOW) …  AS WE ENGINEERED A STRONG SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 9533 CONTRACTS MENTIONED ABOVE.WE HAVE LATELY WITNESSED THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL….. AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. THE COMEX IS THE SCENE FOR AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS EXERCISE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS AND TURN THEM INTO REAL METAL. NO DOUBT THAT THIS IS THE REASON FOR OUR BANKERS TO LIGHTEN UP ON THEIR USE AS OUR LONDON FRIENDS, BY EXERCISING ON THESE COMEX INITIATED VEHICLES, ARE BITING OUR BANKERS BACK AND PUTTING A NOOSE AROUND THEIR NECKS.

 

 

 

(SEE BELOW)

 

 

WE  HAD 0    4 -GC VOLUME//open interest REMAINS AT 127

 

 

 

 

 

 

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A SMALL SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 1384 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:   OCT: 0  DEC 2894; FEB// ’21 500 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1384  CONTRACTS.

YOU WILL FIND THAT WHEN WE HAVE A GOOD PREMIUM IN THE FUTURES/SPOT, THEN THE NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS DECLINE IN NUMBERS.  THE COST IS JUST TOO MUCH FOR THEM TO ISSUE. TODAY THAT PREMIUM WAS SMALL AND THUS A LITTLE MORE THAN USUAL OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WERE ISSUED.

 

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 8386 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 1384 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A STRONG SIZED 7002 COMEX CONTRACTS.  THE BANKERS ARE NOW LOATHE TO SUPPLY THE SHORT PAPER.  THEY CONTINUE TO ISSUE  SMALLER AMOUNTS OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL AS THE COST ON CARRYING SERIAL FORWARDS IN LONDON IS TOO GREAT FOR THEM. WITH WEDNESDAY’S TRADING WE HAD ATTEMPTED AND FAILED BANKER SHORT COVERING,  AS OUR BANKERS HAVE BEEN CAUGHT TERRIBLY OFFSIDE ON THEIR SHORT POSITIONS..AND THUS THE REASON FOR OUR CONSTANT RAIDS, THESE PAST 5 CONSECUTIVE DAYS…. SURPRISINGLY AGAIN NOBODY LEFT THE GOLD ARENA AS WE HAD A STRONG GAIN IN OI ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. (SEE BELOW)

 

 

 

 

 

THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT ROSE $19.55).  AND, THEY WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING ANY LONGS AS BANKER SHORT COVERING 

WAS THE NAME OF THE GAME:  THE TOTAL GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES REGISTERED  26.08 TONNES  WITH THE  RISE IN  PRICE

 

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES :: 8386, CONTRACTS OR 838,600 OZ OR 26.08 TONNES.

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT COMMODITY FUTURES OPEN INTEREST SHOULD APPROXIMATE 3% OF TOTAL PRODUCTION.  IN GOLD THE WORLD PRODUCES AROUND 3500 TONNES PER YEAR BUT ONLY 2200 TONNES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE WEST (THUS EXCLUDING RUSSIA, CHINA ETC..WHO KEEP 100% OF THEIR PRODUCTION)

THUS IN GOLD WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:  564,459 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS X 100 OZ PER CONTRACT = 56.44 MILLION OZ/32,150 OZ PER TONNE =  1755 TONNES

THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST REPRESENTS 1755/2200 OR 79.79% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF GOLD.

 

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 125,787 contracts// volume EXTREMELY POOR

 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  242,701 contracts//  volume: poor  //most of our traders have left for London

 

 

SEPT 10 /2020

SEPT. GOLD CONTRACT MONTH

INITIAL STANDING FOR SEPT GOLD

 

 

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
868.05 oz
Loomis
27 kilobars
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz NIL oz

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

11,781.320

OZ

HSBC

 

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
24 notice(s)
 2400 OZ
(0.07465 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
783 contracts
(78,300 oz)
2.43 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
3804 notices
380,400 OZ
11.832 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

We had 0 deposit into the dealer

 

total deposit: nil oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had 1 deposit into the customer account

i) Into HSBC  11,781.320 oz

 

total customer deposit:  11,781.320     oz

 

 

we had 1 gold withdrawals from the customer account:

 

i) Out of Loomis: 868.05 oz  (27 kilobars)

 

 

 

 

total withdrawals;  868.05    oz

 

 

 

 

 

We had 1  kilobar transactions  +

 

ADJUSTMENTS: 0 //

 

 

 

 

The front month of SEPT registered a total of 267 contracts for a GAIN of 51 contracts.  We had 104 notices filed on Wednesday, so we gained a strong 155 contracts or an additional 15,500 oz will stand for delivery in this non active month of Sept. Remember that we have been adding to our gold deliveries despite the raid these past 5 days.

Oct GAINED A CONSIDERABLE 87  contracts UP to 61,475  (NOBODY HAS LEFT THE ARENA ON OUR FRONT MONTH OF OCTOBER).  November gained 37 contracts to stand at 69.

The big December contract GAINED 6327 contracts UP to 419,386 contracts..

 

 

 

 

 

 

We had 243 notices filed today for  24,300 oz

 

FOR THE SEPT 2020 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and  81 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 243 contract(s) of which 0  notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 132 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the SEPT /2020. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (3804) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  SEPT (267 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today (243 x 100 oz per contract) equals 382,800 OZ OR 11.9066 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this active month of JUNE

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the SEPT/2020 contract month:

No of notices filed so far (3804, x 100 oz + 267 OI) for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (243) x 100 oz which equals 382,800 oz standing OR 11.9066 TONNES in this  active delivery month. This is a HUGE amount for gold standing for a SEPT delivery month (a NON active delivery month).

October, also looks like we are going to have a strong delivery month.

We gained 155 contracts or an additional 15,500 oz will try their luck searching for metal on this side of the pond.

 

 

 

 

 

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:  BRINKS

 

144,088.952 oz NOW PLEDGED  JAN 21.2020/HSBC  5.4807 TONNES

 

42,548.308.00 PLEDGED  APRIL 3/2020: SCOTIA:            1.3234 tonnes

deleted Int. Delaware pledge July 7  (600 tonnes)

271,956.8057 oz  (some deleted august 3)         JPM  8.45 TONNES

610,238.285 oz pledged June 12/2020 Brinks/   july 2/july 21               19.017 tonnes

63,187.561 oz Pledged August 21/regular account 1.965 tonnes jpm

total pledged gold:  1,132,018.163 oz                                     35.21 tonnes

 

 

 

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES…. WE HAVE 468.31 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS i.e. 11.9066 tonnes

CALCULATION OF REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SETTLED UPON:

total registered or dealer  16,188,264.934 oz or 503.52 tonnes
which  includes the following:
a) pledged gold held at HSBC   which cannot settled upon   144,088.952 oz x ( 4.4817 TONNES)//
b) pledged gold held at JPMorgan (SOME  DELETED JUNE 24 2020/SOME JULY 9; SOME JULY 22/July 03/august 3) which cannot be settled upon:  271,956.057 oz (or 8.45 tonnes)
total pledged gold:
b 2 pledged gold JPMorgan august 21/2020;  63,187.561 oz  (1.965 tonnes)
c)  pledged gold at Scotia: 1.3234 tonnes or 42,548.308 oz which cannot be settled  (1.3234 tonnes)
d) pledged gold at Manfra:  DELETED  MAY 26.2020
e) pledged gold at int.Del.    DELETED:   JULY 7.2020
f) pledged gold at Brinks:  DELETED july 2 and july 21
g) pledged gold at Brinks: 610,238.285 oz added which cannot be settled:  18.980 tonnes
total weight of pledged:  1,132,018.163 oz or 35.21 tonnes
thus:
registered gold that can be used to settle upon:  15,056243.0.0  (468,31 tonnes)
true registered gold  (total registered – pledged tonnes  15,056,243.0 (468.31 tonnes)
total eligible gold:  20,442,716.034 oz (635.85 tonnes)

total registered, pledged  and eligible (customer) gold  36,630,980.968 oz 1,139.37 tonnes (INCLUDES 4 GC GOLD)

total 4 GC gold:   126.34 tonnes

total gold net of 4 GC:  1013,03 tonnes

 

end

 

I have compiled  data with respect to registered (or dealer) gold taken on first day notice for each of the past 24 months

The data begins on first day notice for the May month taken on the last day of July 2018. and it continues to present day.

 

I then took, how many deliveries were recorded by the CME for each and every month.  I also included for reference the price of gold on first day notice.

 

The first graph is a logarithmic  graph and the second graph, linear.

You can see the huge explosion of registered gold at the comex along with deliveries.

 

 

THE DATA AND GRAPHS:

 

 

 

THE GOLD COMEX SEEMS TO BE  UNDER SEVERE ASSAULT FOR PHYSICAL

END

SEPT 10/2020

And now for the wild silver comex results

And now for the wild silver comex results

 

INITIAL STANDINGS

SEPT. SILVER COMEX CONTRACT MONTH//INITIAL STANDING

Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory

8702.200

OZ

 

DELAWARE

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
1,195,642.713 oz
CNT
JPMORGAN
No of oz served today (contracts)
4
CONTRACT(S)
(20,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
1314 contracts
 6,570,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  9104 contracts

45,520,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
We had 0 deposit into the dealer:

total dealer deposits: NIL     oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

 

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

 

we had 2 deposits into the customer account

i)into JPMorgan: 1,169,072.60 oz  (the crook JPMorgan continues to add silver to its inventory//4TH DAY IN A ROW)

ii) Into CNT: 26,570.113 oz

 

 

 

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017, 2018 and onward, has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 174.036 million oz of  total silver inventory or 48.80% of all official comex silver. (174.036 million/356.587 million

 

total customer deposits today:  1,195,642.713   oz

we had 1 withdrawals:

 

i) Out of Delaware: 8702.200

 

 

 

total withdrawals;  18702.200    oz

We had 0 adjustments/

 

 

 

Total dealer(registered) silver: 138.707 million oz

total registered and eligible silver:  356.587 million oz

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

the front month of SEPTEMBER registered an open interest of 1318 contracts thus losing 248 contracts.  We had 286 notices filed on WEDNESDAY so we GAINED 38 contracts or an additional 190,000 oz will stand in this active delivery month of September  as they refused to morph into London based forwards and thus they negated a fiat bonus.  Our London boys are ready to exercise these EFP’s and they will turn them into real physical metal as we now have a full frontal attack on both of our two precious metals.

 

Oct saw another GAIN of 29 contract to stand at 1289.November lost 0 contract to stand at 13,

The big December contract month saw its OI GAIN by 387 contracts up to 138,330

 

 

The total number of notices filed today for the SEPT 2020. contract month is represented by 4 contract(s) FOR 20,000, oz

 

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in SEPT we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 9104 x 5,000 oz = 45,520,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of SEPT(1318) and the number of notices served upon today 4 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

 

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the SEPT/2019 contract month: 9104 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of SEPT  (1318)- number of notices served upon today (4) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the SEPT contract month.equals 52,090,000 oz. ..VERY STRONG FOR AN ACTIVE MONTH.

We gained 38 contracts or AN ADDITIONAL 190,000 oz. WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY IN THIS ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH, AS THEY LOOK FOR METAL ON THE THIS SIDE OF THE POND!

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME : 36,338 CONTRACTS // volume poor//wow!! the bankers are scared to supply paper

 

 

 

 

FOR YESTERDAY   64,551.  ,CONFIRMED VOLUME//VOLUMES SMALLER THAN NORMAL

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 64,551 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 0.322 billion  OZ 46.1% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

 

NPV for Sprott

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV  FALLS TO- 2.95% ((SEPT 10/2020)

2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV  RISES TO -0.81% to NAV:   (SEPT 10/2020 )

Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/2950%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA

3. SPROTT CEF .A   FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 20.43 TRADING 19.86///NEGATIVE 2.80

END

 

 

 

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

SEPT 10/WITH GOLD UP $8.85 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.92 TONNES INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1252.96 TONNES

SEPT 9/WITH GOLD UP $19.55 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1250.04 TONNES

SEPT 8/WITH GOLD UP $8.20 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1250.04 TONNES

SEPT 4//WITH GOLD DOWN $3.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1250.04 TONNES

SEPT 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.50 ON THIS 2ND DAY OF A 3 DAY RAID:  NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1250.04 TONNES

SEPT 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $34.00 TODAY, WE HAVE 2 SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: 2 WITHDRAWALS OF .87 TONNES AND.59 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1250.04 TONNES

SEPT 1/WITH GOLD UP $7.10 TODAY, WE HAVE NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1251.50 TONNES

AUGUST 31//WITH GOLD UP $5.90 TODAY/WE HAD NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1251.50 TONNES/

AUGUST 28/WITH GOLD UP $38.20 TODAY, WE SURPRISINGLY HAD A .59 TONNE WITHDRAWAL//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1251.50 TONNES

AUGUST 27/WITH GOLD DOWN 17.50 TODAY: WE HAD A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A DEPOSIT OF 3.24 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY REST AT 1252.09 TONNES

AUGUST 26/WITH GOLD UP $26.70  TODAY/  WE  HAD A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.53 TONNES FROM THE GLD//RESTS AT 1248.85 TONNES

AUGUST 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.60 TODAY, WE  HAD NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//RESTS AT 1252.38 TONNES

AUGUST 24//WITH GOLD DOWN $7.20 TODAY: WE HAD NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: /INVENTORY RESTS AT 1258.38 TONNES

AUGUST 21//WITH GOLD DOWN $.40 TODAY: WE HAD NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: /INVENTORY RESTS AT 1252.38 TONNES

AUGUST 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $23.45 TODAY: WE HAD NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: .//INVENTORY REST AT  1252.38 TONNES

AUGUST 19//WITH GOLD DOWN $39.65 TODAY: WE HAD NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1252.38 TONNES

AUGUST 18/WITH GOLD UP $14.60 TODAY: WE HAD A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 4.09 TONNES//GLD INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 1252.38 TONNES

AUGUST 17/WITH GOLD UP $46.30  TODAY:  SURPRISINGLY WE HAD A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A WITHDRAWAL  OF 3.8 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1248.29 TONNES

AUGUST 14/ WITH GOLD DOWN $19.45 TODAY: SURPRISINGLY, WE HAD A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A DEPOSIT OF 1.46 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1252.63 TONNES.

AUGUST 13/WITH GOLD UP $23.15 TODAY: WE HAD A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: SURPRISINGLY A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 7.30 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1250.63 TONNES

AUGUST 12/ WITH GOLD UP $1.00 TODAY: WE HAD A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.19 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1257.93 TONNES

AUGUST 11//WITH GOLD DOWN $92.40 TODAY, WE HAD NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1262.12 TONNES.

AUGUST 10/WITH GOLD UP $11.35  TODAY, WE HAD A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.84 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1262.12 TONNES

AUGUST 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $38.30 TODAY, WE HAVE NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1267.96 TONNES

AUGUST 6/WITH GOLD UP $20.45 TODAY, WE HAVE ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 10.23 TONNES INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1267.96  TONNES//

AUGUST 5/WITH GOLD UP $ 33.75 TODAY, WE HAVE A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/A DEPOSIT OF 9.35 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1257.73 TONNES

AUGUST 4//WITH GOLD UP $31.75 TODAY, WE HAVE A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A DEPOSIT OF 6.48 TONNES/GLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 1248.38 TONNES

AUGUST 3/WITH GOLD UP $2.20 TODAY, WE HAVE NO CHANGES IN THE GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1241,96 TONNES

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

Inventory rests tonight at

SEPT 10/ GLD INVENTORY 1252.96 tonnes*

LAST;  898 TRADING DAYS:   +313.46 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN ADDED THE GLD

 

LAST 798 TRADING DAYS://+491.99  TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

 

end

 

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

SEPT 10/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.607 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 558.562 MILLION OZ.

SEPT 9/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: STRANGE: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.63 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 561.169 MILLION OZ

SEPT 8/WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 564.799 MILLION OZ

SEPT 4//WITH SILVER DOWN 15  CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 3.631 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 564.799 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 3//WITH SILVER DOWN 50 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.258 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 568.430 MILLION OZ/./

SEPT 2.WITH SILVER DOWN $1.04 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.365 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY REST AT 571.688 MILLION OZ.

SEPT 1//WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 574.053 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 31/WITH SILVER UP 80 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN THE SLV//A DEPOSIT OF 2.982 MILLION OZ ENTERS THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 574.053 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 28/WITH SILVER UP 48 CENTS TODAY: A MASSIVE PAPER DEPOSIT OF 4.652 MILLION OZ ENTERS THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 571.071 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 28 CENTS  TODAY// NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 566.419 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 26//WITH SILVER UP $1.04 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.65 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 566.419 MILLION OZ..

AUGUST 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.607 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 571.074 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 24//WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS TODAY: WE HAD A NO CHANGES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 573.843  MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 21//WITH SILVER DOWN 30 CENTS TODAY: WE HAD A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A DEPOSIT OF.838 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 573.843 MILLION OZ..

AUGUST 20/WITH SILVER DOWN $.26 TODAY: WE HAD A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.724 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV..//INVENTORY REST AT 572.843 MILLION  OZ

AUGUST 18/WITH SILVER UP $.44 TODAY: WE HAD A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A DEPOSIT OF 2.514 MILLION OZ//THE SLV INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 576.567 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 17/WITH SILVER  UP $1.27 TODAY: WE HAD NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: //INVENTORY RESTS AT 574.053 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 14/WITH SILVER DOWN  $1.31 TODAY, WE HAD A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.984 MILLION OZ// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 574.053 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 13//WITH SILVER UP $1.76  TODAY: WE HAVE TWO HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.421  MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV AT 2 PM AND ANOTHER DEPOSIT OF 6.984 MILLION OZ AT 5 20 PM/INVENTORY RESTS AT 581.037 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 40 CENTS TODAY: WE HAVE ANOTHER CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A WITHDRAWAL OF XX MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT XX MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 11/WITH SILVER DOWN $3.25 CENTS, WE HAVE ANOTHER CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A DEPOSIT OF 2.41 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 571.632 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 10/WITH SILVER UP 1.89 TODAY, WE HAVE ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.538 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 569.491  MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 69 CENTS TODAY: WE HAVE ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 0.465 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 573.029 MILLION OZ.

AUGUST 6/WITH SILVER UP $1.52 TODAY, WE HAVE NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 572.564 MILLION OZ///

AUGUST 5/WITH SILVER UP $1.03 TODAY, WE HAVE A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A MONSTROUS DEPOSIT OF 5.403 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 572.564 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 4/WITH SILVER UP $1.45 TODAY, WE HAVE NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: //INVENTORY RESTS AT 367.161 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 3/WITH SILVER UP 23 CENTS TODAY: WE HAVE A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//SURPRISINGLY ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 0.931 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 367.161 MILLION OZ//

 

SEPT 10.2020:

SLV INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT

558.562 MILLION OZ

 

 

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

 

 

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

This is very important: Kim advises that we should not trust the Comex or the banks with our gold

(Kim/GATA)

John Kim: Don’t trust Comex or banks with your gold

 Section: 

11:20a ET Wednesday, September 9, 2020

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Financial writer John Kim today argues that it’s not safe to keep gold with the New York Commodities exchange or with banks but only with vaulting operations outside the financial system where you’re allowed to see your metal and remove it. The risk of confiscation or fraud is too great, Kim writes.

He cites several recent examples where people thought metal was being vaulted for them only to discover that it wasn’t.

Kim’s commentary is headlined “Why Holding Warrants on Comex Gold Is Foolish” and it’s posted at his internet site, Maalamalama.com, here:

https://maalamalama.com/wordpress/why-holding-warrants-on-comex-gold-is-…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

Craig Hemke speculates that  the Sept. FOMC meeting, inflation will be the major topic and major policy changes will ensue\Craig (Hemke/Sprott)

Craig Hemke at Sprott Money: Ahead of the September FOMC meeting

 Section: 

11:50a ET Wednesday, September 9, 2020

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

The TF Metals Report’s Craig Hemke, writing today at Sprott Money, speculates on the outcome of the September meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, basing his analysis on the Fed’s recent trial balloons launched through mainstream financial news organizations.

Hemke surmises: “The trial balloons floated since June all suggest that major policy changes will be forthcoming and these changes will all be designed to drive higher inflation. Higher inflation with ‘yield curve control’ will lead to sharply negative real interest rates. And sharply negative real interest rates will lead to higher gold and silver prices.”

Hemke’s analysis is headlined “Ahead of the September FOMC” and it’s posted at Sprott Money here:

https://www.sprottmoney.com/blog/Ahead-of-the-September-FOMC-Craig-Hemke…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

Kranzler writes that gold and silver are set for a huge move northbound

(Kranzler/IRD/GATA)

Dave Kranzler: Gold and silver are set up for a huge move

 Section: 

3:45p ET Wednesday, September 9, 2020

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Dave Kranzler of Investment Research Dynamics in Denver today cites the work of GoldMoney research director Alasdair Macleod and GATA researcher Robert Lambourne, as well some observations by your secretary/treasurer, in support of a prediction that, as his headline says, “Gold and Silver Are Set Up for a Huge Move.” It’s posted at the IRD site here:

https://investmentresearchdynamics.com/gold-and-silver-are-set-up-for-a-…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

iii) Other physical stories:

 

Andrew Maguire…..
a must view

on

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early WEDNESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 6.8379/ 

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.8380   /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 19.80 POINTS OR 0.61%

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 155.39 POINTS OR 0.64%

 

2. Nikkei closed UP 202.93 POINTS OR 0.88%

 

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL MIXED/

 

 

 

USA dollar index UP TO 93.08/Euro FALLS TO 1.1837

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. +.03/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 106.12/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 37.50 and Brent: 40.33

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE UP/OFF- SHORE: UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO -.45%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 1.00% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.33%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.45: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 1.12

3k Gold at $1945.90 silver at: 27.06   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 14/100 in roubles/dollar) 75.17

3m oil into the 37 dollar handle for WTI and 40 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 106.12 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9089 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0760 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to 0.45%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 0.70% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 1.46%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 7.4719..

Futures Slide, Euro Rises Ahead Of ECB

Wednesday’s tech-led rally in stock markets stalled in Europe on Thursday as traders pulled back to hear what the European Central Bank would say about the euro’s run-up in recent months and this morning. Meanwhile, S&P futures dropped 17 points suggesting the rally in underlying stocks will stall once again amid concerns over record valuations.

The drop came after the gains in technology shares drove the largest Nasdaq advance since April on Wednesday as the S&P 500 rose the most since June following the fastest Nasdaq correction from an all-time high in history. The increased volatility in recent days suggests that U.S. stocks may be due for a pullback, with investors weighing catalysts to decide on the trajectory.

Mizuho Bank’s head of economics and strategy in Singapore, Vishnu Varathan, said investors were grappling with whether this month’s steep U.S. tech selloff was really done, and beyond that an increasingly uncertain U.S. political outlook and persistent Sino-U.S. tensions.

Meanwhile, the ECB’s upcoming meeting, along with emergency Brexit talks in London after negotiations turned chaotic again, and wilting commodity markets kept the bulls firmly on the leash. An early push from the pan-European STOXX 600 faltered as tech struggled, the euro and government bonds gained pre-ECB, and drooping oil and metals prices hit the region’s drillers and miners.

Analysts also waited to see whether reports that the ECB will fractionally revise up its COVID-battered economic and inflation forecasts later would ultimately effect the chances of a further ramping up of stimulus, which would rein in the euro (see our full ECB preview here).

“What happens at the ECB today is quite important for global markets,” said TD Securities’ European head of currency strategy Ned Rumpeltin. “There is still one trade, which is reflate or die,” he said referring to stimulus aid lifting asset prices. “So the degree to which the ECB either takes that one step forward or one step back today will be important.”

While the ECB is widely expected to keep policy steady, investors will be closely watching comments from President Christine Lagarde for any hints on whether the stronger euro is becoming a problem for the region. Analysts have speculated that Lagarde and her colleagues could start laying the groundwork for an intervention that would prevent the euro’s strength from slowing an economic recovery.

“The persistent dollar weakness since March has started making some governments and central banks uncomfortable,” said Athanasios Vamvakidis, head of Bank of America’s Group-of-10 currency strategy. “We expect the ECB to push against euro strength today. It is still early to talk about risks of a currency war, but I would expect more push against further dollar weakness.”

Earlier in the session, MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan snapped its longest losing streak since February with a 0.7% gain. Japan’s Nikkei rose 0.9% and Chinese blue chips rose 0.8%. Markets in Sydney and Hong Kong were just better than flat though and, in a reminder of the risks, Jakarta nosedived 5% on plans to re-introduce COVID-19 social restrictions in the Indonesian capital. Like Europe though, Wall Street futures traded down between 0.5%-0.7% ahead of trading there.

In FX, the euro advanced a second day against the dollar as traders awaited Thursday’s European Central Bank’s policy decision. The pound rose as investors awaited the outcome of emergency Brexit talks between the U.K. and the European Union. Risk- sensitive Scandinavian and antipodean currencies edged lower as European stock markets and U.S. equity futures failed build on Wednesday’s gains; the Swiss franc led G-10 peers.

In rates, bond buyers also returned after a tepid response to a $35 billion U.S. 10-year auction overnight, pushing the yield on U.S. 10-year debt down by a whisker to 0.7001% near high end of a less-than-2bp daily range; bunds lag by 2bp ahead of ECB, gilts by 1bp. Treasuries were slightly richer vs Wednesday’s close after paring small gains, with U.S. session focused on August PPI and 30-year bond reopening. Treasury auction cycle concludes with $23b 30-year reopening at 1pm ET (+$4b vs previous 30-year reopening), on the heels of soft demand at both the 3- and 10-year offerings this week.

In commodities, concerns about demand for fuel also had oil prices back under pressure, in an indication of wavering confidence in global growth. Brent crude futures fell back to $40.45 a barrel after bouncing back from a three-month low overnight. U.S. crude futures slipped 0.8% to $37.68 a barrel.

Expected data include jobless claims and wholesale inventories. Chewy, Oracle and Peloton are reporting earnings.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.3% to 3,378.75
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.4% to 368.13
  • MXAP up 0.6% to 170.42
  • MXAPJ up 0.2% to 559.27
  • Nikkei up 0.9% to 23,235.47
  • Topix up 1.2% to 1,624.86
  • Hang Seng Index down 0.6% to 24,313.54
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.6% to 3,234.82
  • Sensex up 1.2% to 38,650.61
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.5% to 5,908.52
  • Kospi up 0.9% to 2,396.48
  • Brent futures down 0.8% to $40.45/bbl
  • Gold spot little changed at $1,946.17
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.2% to 93.08
  • German 10Y yield fell 1.1 bps to -0.473%
  • Euro up 0.3% to $1.1834
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 0.7 bps to 0.895%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 2.4 bps to 0.315%

Top Overnight news from Bloomberg

  • ECB President Christine Lagarde will have to walk a fine line as she portrays a euro-area economy that’s recovering as hoped from the coronavirus pandemic yet still in need of massive support; see decision day guide
  • China’s next five-year plan beginning in 2021 will call for increases to its mammoth state reserves of crude, strategic metals and farm goods
  • Trump administration appointees suppressed intelligence on Russian election interference and the threat from white supremacists, according to a whistle-blower complaint filed by the Department of Homeland Security’s former intelligence chief
  • One in five U.K. companies is a “zombie,” with profits only just covering debt interest payments, according to a report by an influential Conservative think tank

A quick look around global markets courtesy of NewsSquawk

Asia-Pac bourses were initially mostly positive, but ultimately finished mixed, after taking advantage of the constructive handover from the US where tech rebounded from the recent sell-off to lift the Nasdaq out of a correction, while vaccine concerns also abated amid reports AstraZeneca may resume trials next week. ASX 200 (+0.5%) and Nikkei 225 (+0.9%) gained from the open with tech and mining names leading the advances in Australia but with upside later reversed amid weakness in financials and ongoing tensions with its largest trading partner China after reports that 6 Chinese citizens either left or were denied entry into Australia for alleged espionage or foreign interference. The Japanese benchmark was kept afloat by recent favourable currency moves and better than expected Machinery Orders data, while Tokyo also lowered its virus alert level by one notch. Hang Seng (-0.6%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.6%) were somewhat cautious after mixed US-China related headlines with the US said to have revoked more than 1000 visas of Chinese nationals as of September 8th due to ties with the Chinese military, although there were also reports that TikTok’s parent, ByteDance, was in discussions with the US government on possible arrangements that would allow the app to avoid a full sale of its US operations. Focus was also on Yum China shares which declined 4% on an underwhelming Hong Kong debut, although Beigene shares were boosted on its inclusion in the HK-mainland stock connect program, while hefty losses were seen in the IDX Composite (-5.0%) which triggered a circuit breaker intraday after the Jakarta Governor announced to reimpose large-scale social restrictions. Finally, 10yr JGBs were lacklustre following the recent mild weakness in T-notes and rebound in equity markets, with price action in 10yr JGBs also hampered by resistance at the 152.00 level and as all metrics suggested a weaker than previous 20yr JGB auction.

Top Asian News

  • Dollar’s Dominance Gives U.S. Upper Hand in China Fight
  • Yum China Has Hong Kong’s Weakest Debut in More Than a Year
  • Tokyo Lowers Virus Alert Level, Eases Restrictions on Bars
  • Turkey Is Said to Be Discussing Oil and Gas Exploration in Libya

European stocks trade mixed (Euro Stoxx 50 -0.1%) having experienced directionless trade throughout much of the morning, following on from a mixed/choppy APAC session. Fresh fundamental news flow has been relatively light as participants gear up for the ECB policy decision (full preview available in the research suite). Sectors are mostly lower with no clear risk profile to be derived – Basic Resources, Banks and Oil & Gas stand are the laggards, with the latter on account of softer oil prices, whilst Autos, Travel & Leisure reside on the other side of the spectrum. In terms of individual movers, Akzo Nobel (+3.5%) remains buoyed as the group continues to see improving trends in Q3, with total revenue expected to be close to prior year’s levels – thus providing support to the European Chemical sector. Nexi (+5.2%) remains a top gainer in the region after sources stated that the Co. and SIA are close to clearing a hurdle to a potential merger. Finally, Morrison (-5.1%) trades at the bottom of the Stoxx 600 following their trading update which noted that COVID-19 continues to have a significant and widespread impact on business.

Top European News

  • Euronext Is Said to Ready Over $4 Billion Bid for Borsa Italiana
  • Nexi, SIA Close to Clearing Hurdle to Blockbuster Merger
  • Deadly Hog Fever Arrives in Germany, Europe’s Top Pork Producer
  • Navalny Security Tightened as Putin Foe Revives, Spiegel Says

In FX, there was not much movement in G10 currencies compared to the frantic price action that panned out on Wednesday, but the ECB policy meeting and press conference from President Lagarde hold potential to spark another bout of volatility along with the extraordinary joint committee convene between the EU and UK arranged after yesterday’s controversial IMB. In the interim, Usd/major pairs are mixed and relatively rangebound as inferred by the DXY holding within a tight range just above 93.000 (93.281-036) ahead of US claims, ppi and wholesale inventories. Meanwhile, the Euro is meandering between 1.1839-01 and well flanked by decent option expiry interest (down to 1.1775 and up to 1.1900 – full details on the headline feed at 6.56BT), with Cable pivoting 1.3000 and Eur/Gbp hovering nearer the upper end of 0.9105-0.9075 parameters.

  • NOK/SEK – Little independent impetus or direction via Scandinavian inflation data (headline as forecast and core firmer in Norway vs mostly softer than expected Swedish CPI and CPIF), but wavering risk sentiment following the midweek session recovery and a downturn in crude prices have pushed the Crowns back down within 10.6720-10.6210 and 10.3516-10.3206 respective parameters.
  • CHF/JPY/CAD/NZD/AUD – The Franc is outperforming above 0.9100 vs the Greenback and just shy of 1.0750 against the Euro for no apparent or obvious reason other than consolidation off recent lows, while the Yen is retracing towards 106.00 where heavy expiries reside (2 bn) ahead of almost as much from 105.85 to 105.80 (1.9 bn), and with latest BoJ source reports about a looming economic assessment upgrade largely shrugged aside. Elsewhere, the Loonie retains some post-BoC momentum in advance of Governor Macklem’s speech, with Usd/Cad straddling 1.3150 and the Antipodean Dollars are essentially idling vs their US counterpart as Nzd/Usd and Aud/Usd rotate around 0.6680 and 0.7275. Next up for the Kiwi, NZ manufacturing PMI and food price index reads for August, while the Aussie will continue to monitor Chinese diplomatic developments and daily PBoC fixes for the Cny. Talking Yuan, market observers report that Usd 3 bn options for Cnh to hit 8 in one year went through during Asian trade and for reference the pair is now circa 6.8400, so devaluation and/or a major Buck rally envisaged by the aggressor.
  • EM – The Rand is lagging in wake of a much wider than anticipated SA Q2 current account deficit, but for once the Lira is showing a degree of resilience in the face of Greek calls for tough EU sanctions against Turkey and data revealing a rise in unemployment. Indeed, Usd/Try has defended attempts on 7.5000, thus far at least.

In commodities, WTI and Brent front month futures have been drifting lower in early European trade after relatively sideways overnight price action, with the benchmarks straddling figures just below USD 38/bbl and USD 40.50/bbl respectively. A few updates for the complex – the EIA STEO revised its US oil supply forecasts lower by 210k BPD for 2020. However, after September, “EIA expects U.S. crude oil production to decline slightly, averaging just under 11.0mln BPD during the first half of 2021 because EIA expects that new drilling activity will not generate enough production to offset declines from existing wells.” Meanwhile, the delayed Private Energy Inventory report adds further to the bearish narrative after printing a surprise build of 3mln bls vs. Exp. -1.3mln bbls during the last week – traders will be eyeing confirmation via today’s EIA DoE’s released at 1600BST/1100ET. Elsewhere, participants are keeping an eye on the storage situation given the touted demand decline amid a resurgence in COVID-19 cases, with sources via EnergyIntel noting that traders and international oil companies are actively booking VLCC supertankers for the next 6-12 months – suggesting participants are looking for storage of oil as opposed to sales – reflected in the curve contango. Also note, ahead of the JMMC meeting on the 17th, sources stated that the recent price decline was causing concern in Riyadh, but not yet panic – adding that there was not a need for a “bigger cut” at this point. Elsewhere, spot gold and silver remain relatively contained within tight ranges just sub-USD 1950/oz and around USD 27/oz respectively ahead of the ECB policy decision later today. In terms of base metals LME copper prices have been declining alongside stocks, with participants keeping an eye on the easing COVID-19 measures in Chile.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: PPI Final Demand MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.6%; PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.5%
  • 8:30am: PPI Final Demand YoY, est. -0.3%, prior -0.4%; PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 0.3%, prior 0.3%
  • 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, est. 850,000, prior 881,000; Continuing Claims, est. 12.9m, prior 13.3m
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, prior 45.1
  • 10am: Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. -0.1%, prior -0.1%; Wholesale Trade Sales MoM, prior 8.8%

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Disorder certainly continues to rule at home. Last week I beamed at how easy the first couple of days at nursery were for the twins. Well this week has been a different story. I think they believed that after two days followed by a weekend of no school that was their education was over with and were thus quite relaxed. This week as soon as my wife has pulled out their uniform to dress them, they have screamed and kicked the house down. My wife rung me in my cozy isolated home office at 915am yesterday to let me know that the only way she could get them to school was in their pyjamas and then to get the teacher to help change them at school once she’d dropped my daughter off. She was still shaking and needed to pause before she drove home. I felt a bit guilty being on an earlier work conference call during the turmoil downstairs. Having said that please please book me for a call any day between 8-9am so I can avoid a nervous breakdown.

Markets went from breaking down to recovery yesterday and recouped much of their losses from the previous day’s selloff. US tech outperformed, with the NASDAQ advancing +2.71%. That included strong performances from Tesla (+10.92%), Microsoft (+4.26%) and Apple (+3.86%), though the broader S&P 500 was also up +2.01% as 23 of 24 industries rose on the day (Autos at -0.37% the sole exception). The rebound was the best day for the S&P in over three months, while the NASDAQ’s daily advance was the most since 29 April. Similarly equities bounced back in Europe, where the STOXX 600 rose +1.62%, while the DAX climbed +2.07% to leave the index down just -0.09% on a YTD basis.

Speaking of Europe, the ECB will be taking centre stage for markets today as they announce their latest monetary policy decision and also release their updated macroeconomic forecasts. This meeting has come increasingly into focus in recent weeks, with the euro having risen above $1.20 at one point for the first time in over 2 years, and this appreciation has triggered a verbal reaction from ECB speakers. Meanwhile there’s the risk that the rising exchange rate reinforces low inflation, with the latest flash CPI estimate for August showing a negative reading (at -0.2%) for the first time in over 4 years. That said, we did get a Bloomberg headline yesterday saying that the forecasts were said to show more confidence in the outlook, with the euro moving higher after the news broke.

In terms of what we’re expecting today, our European economists think that the policy stance will be left unchanged, but that the ECB will reinforce their communications with a resolutely dovish message, before easing further in December with an expansion of their asset purchase programme. That December easing would coincide with the release of the ECB’s staff 2023 inflation forecasts, which could form the basis for a policy shift.

Ahead of this, markets in Asia are following Wall Street’s lead with the Nikkei (+0.64%), Hang Seng (+0.04%), Shanghai Comp (+0.29%) and Kospi (+0.82%) all up. Meanwhile Yields on 10y USTs are down -1.7bps this morning reversing much of yesterday’s rise and futures on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are down -0.30% and -0.27% respectively.

On the coronavirus, here in the UK yesterday the government officially announced the overnight news that gatherings in England would now be limited to a maximum of 6, either indoors or outdoors. That came as a further 2,682 cases were reported yesterday, which pushed the 7-day average (2,363) to its highest since May 27. Prime Minister Johnson said that mass testing could be the route back to normal life, and that the first pilot of this would go ahead in the English city of Salford next month. In other news, following the pause in the AstraZeneca trial after a person developed neurological disorder that causes inflammation of the spinal cord, the FT reported that the trials could resume next week. Having been more than -3% lower following the open, the company’s share price pared back its losses by the end of the session to close up +0.15%. Bloomberg has reported that “an unrelated neurological illness” led to a pause in trials in July as well which was confirmed by an AstraZeneca spokeswoman who said that “There was a brief trial pause in July while a safety review took place after one volunteer was confirmed to have an undiagnosed case of multiple sclerosis,” and added that the independent panel monitoring the trial concluded the diagnosis was unrelated to the vaccine after which the trials resumed. Elsewhere, Asahi has reported that the Tokyo Metropolitan Government has decided to lower its coronavirus alert by one notch from the highest of four levels. The same report also added that Tokyo is planning to end its request of shorter hours at bars and restaurants next week.

The virus news in the US steadily gets better, while the service industry in New York City got a huge boost yesterday when Governor Cuomo announced that indoor dining may resume on September 30. Elsewhere in the US, California had its lowest cases since May and Miami has eased its city-wide curfew and has reopened outdoor public spaces such as the zoo and theme parks.

Concerns over Brexit remained yesterday as the UK government published their Internal Market Bill, which would allow the government to override elements of the Withdrawal Agreement reached between the UK and the EU last year. A number of senior EU figures weighed in negatively in response to the bill’s release, with Commission President von der Leyen tweeting that she was “Very concerned about announcements from the British government on its intentions to breach the Withdrawal Agreement. This would break international law and undermines trust.” Others to respond negatively included the Irish PM, the European Council President, as well as the former UK Conservative Prime Minister John Major, though EU sources told Reuters that they would not seek to suspend the talks between the two sides on their future relationship. Speaking of those discussions, the 8th negotiating round wraps up today, so we should hopefully get some headlines on whether there’s been any progress or not from the key players. Meanwhile, Bloomberg has reported overnight that the EU believes it may have a case to seek legal remedies even before the UK internal-market bill is passed by the UK Parliament and that it would have a clear justification once the bill becomes law, according to the EU’s preliminary analysis of the UK legislation. Criticism on the internal-market bill has also come from across the Atlantic with the US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi saying that the UK must ensure the free flow of goods across the border, as agreed in Britain’s deal with the EU last year. She added that “If the UK violates that international treaty and Brexit undermines the Good Friday accord, there will be absolutely no chance of a US-UK trade agreement passing the Congress.”

Over in fixed income, sovereign bonds sold off yesterday, with yields on 10yr Treasuries (2.1bps), bunds (+3.3bps) and gilts (+4.9bps) all moving higher. Other safe have assets also struggled, with the Japanese Yen being the worst-performing G10 currency, while the dollar index (-0.25%) fell back as well. Oil rebounded however, with WTI (+3.51%) and Brent (+2.54%) recovering at least some of the previous day’s losses. It was the largest one-day move higher for WTI since mid-June as the risk-on sentiment mixed with expectation that American stockpiles have dropped for a seventh week running. With the greenback falling, gold rose the most in 2 weeks (+0.77%) even with higher yields on the day.

Finally there wasn’t much data of note yesterday, though the number of job openings in the US in July rose to a higher-than-expected 6.618m (vs. 6m expected), which is their highest level since February before the impact of the pandemic was felt. That said, unlike in February when unemployment was below 6m, the total number of unemployed workers in July stood at 16.3m, so the number of unemployed far exceeded the number of openings.

Looking to the day ahead, the aforementioned ECB decision and President Lagarde’s subsequent press conference will be a key highlight. Lagarde will also be speaking at a Bundesbank event later in the day, and separately the ECB’s Villeroy and Bank of Canada Governor Macklem will be speaking. Data releases include French and Italian industrial production for July, while from the US there’s the weekly initial jobless claims and August’s PPI reading. Finally, the 8th negotiating round between the UK and the EU on their future relationship concludes today.

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)WEDNESDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 19.80 POINTS OR 0.61%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 155.39 POINTS OR 0.64%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 202.93 POINTS OR 0.88%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .51%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.8379 /Oil UP TO 37.50 dollars per barrel for WTI and 40.33 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 6.8379 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.8380 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED//CORONAVIRUS /PANDEMIC  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 C CHINA

CHINA/USA

USA revokes Chinese graduate student visas because of fears of research theft

(zerohedge)

US Revokes Chinese Graduate Student Visas On Fears Of Research Theft

The Trump administration confirmed in a statement Wednesday that it is “blocking” many students from China from obtaining visas to America, specifically graduate students focusing on research in scientific and medical fields over fears they could steal sensitive research.

Citing the acting head of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), Chad Wolf, Reuters reports:

“We are blocking visas for certain Chinese graduate students and researchers with ties to China’s military fusion strategy to prevent them from stealing and otherwise appropriating sensitive research,” he said in a speech in Washington.

 

Via Imago/DW

This comes after longtime allegations that Beijing is seeking to obtain sensitive coronavirus data and research from American pharmaceutical companies, labs and academic institutions amid the global race for a vaccine.

In the past few years Chinese students have made up the largest contingent of visas issued to foreign graduate students and researchers. For example, DHS lists that for the 2018-2019 academic year, American universities had a whopping 272,470 undergraduate and graduate students enrolled.

It’s as yet unclear how many students are currently banned from travel to the US under this latest DHS policy. But already students who completed their undergraduate programs in China at schools linked to the PLA Army are seeing their visas canceled.

Apparently some are just now finding out, as Reuters details:

Earlier, some Chinese students enrolled in U.S. universities said they received emailed notices from the U.S. embassy in Beijing or U.S. consulates in China on Wednesday informing them that their visas had been canceled.

Nearly 50 students holding F-1 academic visas including postgraduates and undergraduates said in a WeChat chatroom the notices stated they would have to apply for new visas if they wanted to travel to the United States.

Wolf’s Wednesday announcement also referenced the Chinese communist government’s alleged mass prison camps to ‘reeducate’ Muslim Uighurs in Xinjiang province.

He asserted the US was also “preventing goods produced from slave labor from entering our markets, demanding that China respect the inherent dignity of each human being,” however didn’t give further details.

END

CHINA

Chinese farmers are hoarding wheat hoping to create shortages and push the prices higher

(zerohedge)

Chinese Farmers Hoard Wheat In Hopes Of Creating Shortages That Push Prices Higher

The latest Chinese inflation data released overnight showed that consumer prices slowed again, dropping to 2.4% Y/Y, the lowest since early 2019, largely moderating on lower pork inflation (still over 50% y/y, but slowing), while producer price inflation remains negative.

And while Chinese food inflation dropped in half from the record 20% Y/Y increase hit in March as Chinese supply chains were disrupted by the covid lockdowns…

… this decline may not last because as Caixin reports, China’s farmers are stockpiling more of their wheat harvest this year rather than selling to the government and the market as they expect prices to rise and want to hold onto their stocks in case of shortages stemming from the severe summer flooding and fallout from the coronavirus pandemic.

Farmers in the country’s main wheat-growing regions sold only 49.3 million tons of their crop for commercial use and to state reserves as of Aug. 31, 20% less than in the same period last year, according to government data. Within that total, sales to the National Food and Strategic Reserves Administration, which stockpiles and manages the country’s strategic food reserves, sank by almost 70% to 6.2 million tons. Wheat purchased by market participants such as mills accounted for about 86% of the total in 2020, up from 70% last year, the official Xinhua News Agency reported on Aug. 14.

Fears about food security in China have intensified this year amid the coronavirus pandemic and severe flooding that’s hit swathes of agricultural land since June. Speculation that shortages of basic foodstuffs like rice and wheat could emerge has sent prices soaring even as government officials have sought to reassure the population that the country is self-sufficient in staple crops and that the recent price fluctuations in the grain market are temporary.

“As state purchases of wheat dropped this year, market purchases accounted for a higher portion, increasingly becoming the main channel of wheat purchases,” Tang Ke, senior official at Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs said at a press conference  on Aug. 26.

In keeping with Chinese tradition of stockpiling strategic reserves across most commodities, since 2006 the government has purchased wheat at annual state-set prices to ensure that any dramatic decline in market prices would not discourage farmers from cultivating the crop. When market prices are low, farmers can opt to sell more of their crop to state purchasers to support their income.

Currently, the market price for medium-quality wheat from China’s major grain-growing regions is around 2,421.3 yuan ($354) per ton. That compares with the minimum state purchase price of 2,240 yuan, according to government data. For high-quality wheat, the market price is around 2,440 yuan to 2,460 yuan per ton, compared with the state purchase price of 2,320 yuan, according to commodity research firm Sublime China Information Co. Ltd.

As the chart below shows, market prices have risen sharply since July amid widespread flooding and an increase in the price of corn, which has prompted many farmers to switch to wheat to feed their animals, adding to demand for the grain. Meanwhile, prices of pork remain elevated due to the recent outbreak of so-called “Pig Ebola” which decimated the local pig population. The Zhengzhou grain wholesale market, located in the major wheat-producing province of Henan in Central China, reported high-quality wheat prices were up 6.6% year-on-year in July.

Despite fears of supply shortages, China had a record wheat harvest this summer, with output increasing by 756,000 tons year-on-year, or 0.6%, despite a 1.2% decline in planted acreage, according to data released in July by the National Bureau of Statistics. Nevertheless, production in Henan, which accounts for nearly 30% of the country’s wheat output, may have declined due to natural disasters including a cold wave and drought which hit the southern part of the province earlier this year, several industry insiders said. Official data show that as of Aug. 5, the state purchased 9.1 million tons of wheat in the province, a year-on-year decline of 5.4 million tons, the biggest drop of all major wheat-growing regions.

“Previously, we could harvest at least over 2,700 kilograms per acre, but this year we only had about 2,120 kilograms,” a farmer in southern Henan told Caixin. One grain merchant in the area said he purchased less than 1,000 tons of wheat, half as much as in 2019, as many farmers saw declines in wheat production due to bad weather.

end
BYTEDANCE/TIK TOK
Pleads with Washington for more time to sell TikTok. Beinjing continues to add new obstacles
(zerohedge)

ByteDance Pleads With Washington For More Time To Sell TikTok As Beijing Adds New Obstacles

One day after the WSJ confirmed that ByteDance was in talks with the White House about the possibility that there might be some ‘wiggle room’ regarding President Trump’s looming ban (we’ve previously discussed possible alternatives to a sale of TikTok’s US business, including the prospect of some kind of licensing deal), Bloomberg is bringing us the latest ‘trial balloon’, as ByteDance tries to up the pressure on Washington.

Bloomberg reported Thursday morning that ByteDance will likely miss the Trump Administration’s Sept. 20 deadline to strike a deal with one of the suitors looking to buy the US business of TikTok (possibly along with the Australian, New Zealand and Canada business), at least as far as Microsoft and Wal-Mart, which have teamed up on a bid).

Citing anonymous sources familiar with the talks, Bloomberg explained that the problem is that Chinese officials are reportedly demanding that “any proposal must be submitted for approval with detailed information about technical and financial issues, and the review will be substantial and take time, one of the people said. The officials haven’t been willing to give specific guidance on what kind of deal would work, the person said.”

The story also noted that Microsoft and Oracle “continue to be interested” in a deal, while ByteDance founder and CEO Zhang Timing has continued to drag his feet.

ByteDance probably needs beyond the U.S. executive order ban on Sept. 20 to nail down an agreement with either party because of the regulatory review, said the people, asking not to be identified because the matter is private. In preliminary talks with Chinese officials, ByteDance has been told any proposal must be submitted for approval with detailed information about technical and financial issues, and the review will be substantial and take time, one of the people said. The officials haven’t been willing to give specific guidance on what kind of deal would work, the person said.

Microsoft and Oracle, which had submitted proposals before the Chinese regulations hit, both continue to be interested in buying the U.S. arm of the hit video app and have not been dissuaded by Beijing’s involvement, the people said. The bidders have asked ByteDance to get as much clarity as possible from Beijing on the new regulations, which prohibit the export of certain artificial intelligence technologies that TikTok uses, they said.

The parties are still racing to present a preliminary deal to the White House before this month’s deadline, though no agreement could be finalized before Beijing’s signoff. It’s also possible that ByteDance pulls out of a sale altogether if it determines it can’t satisfy both governments, the bidders and its own shareholders.

A company representative offered no immediate comment.

ByteDance founder Zhang Yiming has been caught in a clash between the world’s two preeminent powers. The serial entrepreneur has been reluctant to give up U.S. TikTok from the start because he sees the business as a viable long-term competitor to Facebook Inc. and Google. He came under pressure to cede control when the Trump administration said it would ban the app and his own venture investors pressed for a sale to salvage some value from the operation.

Thursday’s Bloomberg report is just the latest trial balloon in what have become the most closely watched deal talks in a year of market turmoil. With TikTok effectively caught between the world’s two leading super-powers, expect more reports like this as ByteDance uses all of its available options to negotiate with both Washington and Beijing as it navigates the difficult path toward a deal.

On the other hand, the company needs to stall for time as it waits for the US court system to rule on its case, delivering a potential reprieve that might allow Zhang to avoid selling a business that he reportedly believes could one day rival Facebook.

end

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

ECB/THURSDAY MORNING

ECB keeps bond purchase program as before and rates are still unchanged..this was to be expected

(zerohedge)

ECB Keeps Bond Purchase Program, Rates Unchanged As Expected

No surprises were expected at today’s ECB policy announcement, and that’s what the ECB delivered when it kept both its rates and the size (€1.35TN) and duration of its PEPP program unchanged, both as expected.

The full statement is below:

At today’s meeting the Governing Council of the ECB took the following monetary policy decisions:

(1) The interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 0.00%, 0.25% and -0.50% respectively. The Governing Council expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at their present or lower levels until it has seen the inflation outlook robustly converge to a level sufficiently close to, but below, 2% within its projection horizon, and such convergence has been consistently reflected in underlying inflation dynamics.

(2) The Governing Council will continue its purchases under the pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) with a total envelope of €1,350 billion. These purchases contribute to easing the overall monetary policy stance, thereby helping to offset the downward impact of the pandemic on the projected path of inflation. The purchases will continue to be conducted in a flexible manner over time, across asset classes and among jurisdictions. This allows the Governing Council to effectively stave off risks to the smooth transmission of monetary policy. The Governing Council will conduct net asset purchases under the PEPP until at least the end of June 2021 and, in any case, until it judges that the coronavirus crisis phase is over. The Governing Council will reinvest the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the PEPP until at least the end of 2022. In any case, the future roll-off of the PEPP portfolio will be managed to avoid interference with the appropriate monetary policy stance.

(3) Net purchases under the asset purchase programme (APP) will continue at a monthly pace of €20 billion, together with the purchases under the additional €120 billion temporary envelope until the end of the year. The Governing Council continues to expect monthly net asset purchases under the APP to run for as long as necessary to reinforce the accommodative impact of its policy rates, and to end shortly before it starts raising the key ECB interest rates. The Governing Council intends to continue reinvesting, in full, the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the APP for an extended period of time past the date when it starts raising the key ECB interest rates, and in any case for as long as necessary to maintain favourable liquidity conditions and an ample degree of monetary accommodation.

(4) The Governing Council will also continue to provide ample liquidity through its refinancing operations. In particular, the latest operation in the third series of targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTRO III) has registered a very high take-up of funds, supporting bank lending to firms and households.

The Governing Council continues to stand ready to adjust all of its instruments, as appropriate, to ensure that inflation moves towards its aim in a sustained manner, in line with its commitment to symmetry.

 

As expected, there was virtually no changes to either the EURUSD or European rates in kneejerk reaction to the statement.

END

Euro 

The Euro surges again on Lagarde statement that there is no need to overreact to the Euro gains. Lagarde emphasizes that she will not target the exchange rate between the Euro and the dollar

(zerohedge)

Euro Surges On Report ECB Agrees No Need To Overreact To Euro Gains As Lagarde Says “Will Not Target Exchange Rate”

In what can only be described as the most coordinated trial balloon between ECB sources and Bloomberg, at the very moment that Lagarde started her press conference, Bloomberg reported the ECB would “adopt a weaker phrasing in President Christine Lagarde’s press conference about the euro’s recent appreciation than it did during previous bouts of currency gains” citing people familiar with the matter.

The report goes on to note that the Governing Council discussed the currency’s recent appreciation during its meeting on Thursday, “but the general view was that there is no reason to overreact to its recent rise.”

In January 2018, the ECB’s introductory statement contained a phrase that said: “the recent volatility in the exchange rate represents a source of uncertainty which requires monitoring with regard to its possible implications for the medium-term outlook for price stability.”

Then, moments ago, Lagarde appeared far less committal, instead saying that “The European Central Bank President has a close eye on the euro” adding that “in the current environment of elevated uncertainty the governing council will carefully assess incoming information including developments in the exchange rate.”

  • *LAGARDE: ECB DISCUSSED APPRECIATION OF EURO
  • *LAGARDE: ECB DOESN’T TARGET FX RATE
  • *LAGARDE SAYS ECB DISCUSSED EURO, DOES NOT TARGET EXCHANGE RATE

“In the current environment of elevated uncertainty the governing council will carefully assess incoming information including developments in the exchange rate,” Lagarde says at press conference following moneary policy decision

 

This likely means that any expectations for an imminent currency war between the US and Europe can be put on hold.

The euro rose to a fresh day high, hitting 1.894 before trimming some gains.

The spike in the Euro pushed European stocks lower, while Bunds extended declines, with the German 10-year yield climbing 3bps to -0.44%.

You can watch Lagarde’s presser here

end

UK/EU

As promised, Boris Johnson outsmarted the EU with respect to the Withdrawal Agreement.  The EU are hopping mad along with some of our Remainers.  Let’s watch how this develops

Tom Luongo

a must read…

 

Johnson Pushes The EU To The Brink Over Brexit

Authored by Tom Luongo via Gold, Goats, ‘n Guns blog,

When the end-game of a political issue becomes obvious I tend to move on to other pressing issues. For most of 2018 and 2019 Brexit was a top-drawer issue because its end-game was uncertain.

With Boris Johnson’s resounding victory in December Brexit’s end-game became obvious if you assumed Johnson was a man of his word.

That was a tough pill to swallow, but given the political stakes for Johnson not a bad bet to put money on. And I argued after swallowing that pill that Johnson was in a position to drive the Remainers in his government and Parliament to extinction during Free Trade negotiations.

With the latest twist in the Brexit saga it looks like he and his negotiating team are ready to drive the final stake through the heart of them and the European Union with the Internal Market bill.

The Withdrawal Act’s validity and applicability to the future relationship between the EU and the U.K. is predicated on two things.

  1. Both sides negotiating a Free Trade Agreement in good faith.
  2. A free trade agreement is actually signed by the two parties.

If either of these things do not come to pass Section 38 of the Withdrawal Act upgrades the power of the U.K. government since it asserts the sovereignty of the U.K. parliament as a law-making body for the whole of the United Kingdom.

This includes Northern Ireland.

Johnson’s seeming sell-out of Northern Ireland with his agreeing to the Withdrawal Act was always predicated on there being a free trade deal struck between the EU and the U.K.

That probability is rapidly approaching zero now that Johnson et. al. have tabled this bill which has infuriated Remainers in parliament as well as the EU itself.

According to an article in The Sun, the EU’s Chief Brexit Negotiator Michel Barnier threatened U.K. food exports to Northern Ireland if Downing Street didn’t bend the knee.

But The Sun has learnt that London’s attempt to “clarify” parts of the 2019 exit treaty came after what they saw as veiled threats from Michel Barnier’s team that the EU could exploit parts of the Withdrawal Agreement if the UK did not bow to their trade deal demands.

Under the terms of the deal export of “products of animal origin” such as meat, fish, shellfish, eggs and dairy from the UK mainland over to Northern Ireland will become subject to EU oversight.

The EU has a “Third Country” list of approved third parties that can legally import agricultural goods into areas subject to their rules.

The UK being put on that approved list was assumed to be a given and not subject to negotiation, but Brits were left seething after Michel Barnier’s team hinted the UK may not be given that legal status if talks collapse.

Johnson’s team then unveiled the Internal Market bill, which had its first reading today, reminding Barnier and the rest of the EU just who has the leverage these trade deal talks.

This move may be the thing that finally forces Brussels to cave completely even while they fulminate about the Brits “violating international law” by amending a standing treaty.

The usual suspects all across the U.K. from the Scottish Nationals to eurocrats in the House of Lords like Andrew Adonis to even former Prime Minister (and traitor) Theresa May were livid.

And when you have all of these people mad at you, like Johnson has accomplished here, in my mind you are doing something terribly right.

But the big question is whether or not this bill, if it became law, would even be a breach of international law.

Since, again, Section 38 of the Withdrawal Act asserts the sovereignty of the U.K. parliament over the whole of the U.K. and the EU threatening to revoke a food export licence to Northern Ireland from the rest of the U.K. is an application of EU law over a part of the U.K. itself.

And that’s in clear violation of Section 38 of the Withdrawal Act which, if I remember correctly, the EU signed.

Moreover, as I said above, both sides have to be seen as negotiating in good faith. The U.K. is only asking for a free trade deal similar in scope to that of the one the EU has with Canada. The EU, however, is threatening to assert sovereignty over Northern Ireland despite having agreed to parliament’s sovereignty over the whole of the U.K. in the Withdrawal Act.

Someone here is in violation of international law, by my reckoning, and it isn’t Johnson and company.

The tabling of this bill caused Remainers all across the British political class and the civil service to walk off the job in a huff. All of this is downstream of Johnson firing Sir Mark Sedwill back in late June.

Sedwill who was Chief Cabinet Secretary, Head of the British Civil Service and National Security Adviser under Theresa May, was un-ironically a more powerful man in British politics than the Prime Minister himself.

Removing Sedwill, who attempted to stage a coup against Johnson when Johnson had COVID-19, and sign a Brexit extension without Johnson’s consent, was the single biggest thing done to ensure the U.K.’s hardening negotiating stance with the EU.

Sedwill wasn’t just a Remainer, he was the person most responsible for the U.K.’s lack of preparation for Brexit and allowing the civil service to sabotage the negotiating process.

The Bottom line is Johnson holds aces in the whole and just flopped the nuts. Barnier and the EU are done. If Johnson wasn’t feeling confident he wouldn’t have upped the timetable to a free trade deal to October 15th as the last possible day rather than leaving the option open longer.

Remember, Barnier and German Chancellor Angela Merkel were trying to delay things until after the U.S. election in the hopes that a President Biden would leave Johnson out to hang on a free trade agreement with the U.S., reverse Trump’s opting out of the TTIP and the Paris Accords.

By playing hardball now that Trump looks likely to win the election (regardless of the chaos that will likely engender) Johnson is telling the EU their game is over and to prepare for their worst nightmare…

…a free and independent U.K. including a bottled up Scotland and Northern Ireland far beyond their grasp.

*  *  *

Join my Patreon if you want help navigating the rough seas of geopolitics. Install the Brave Browser if you have any brains in your head about how evil Google is.

end
Here is the story on the “intermarket bill” that has the EU fuming. There is probably nothing that they could do to nullify it.
\(zerohedge)

EU Threatens Legal Action, Demands UK Scrap New “Intermarket Bill” By Month’s End As Brexit Talks Suddenly Matter Again

As expected, Brussels isn’t thrilled about new draft legislation from UK PM Boris Johnson that would effectively invalidate the hated “Irish Backstop” – as the provision in the withdrawal agreement was known before the treaty was ratified – and in a throwback to the thick of the deal talks from the spring of 2019, the latest news on the Brexit front is being blamed for a turnaround in US stocks.

Following a day of deal talks between the UK and EU in Brussels, Commission VP Maros Sefcovic – the lead representative on the joint committee overseeing the withdrawal agreement – threatened legal action and threatened to cut off talks. In an official statement delivered by Sefcovic, the new legislation introduced by PM Johnson and his allies had “seriously damaged” trust between the EU and UK and that “it would constitute an extremely serious violation of the Withdrawal Agreement and of international law”. They demanded that the bill be scrapped by the end of the month “or else”, according to Sky News.

The demand follows an “extraordinary meeting” on Thursday between the EU-UK committee overseeing the deal, led by Sefcovic and Cabinet Office minister Michael Gove. Sefcovic also reportedly told Gove the withdrawal agreement was a “legal obligation” and that the EU “expects the letter and spirit of this agreement to be fully respected”. The meeting was called by Brussels.

The so-called “Intermarket Bill” is London’s attempt to “clarify” the withdrawal agreement. Prime Minister Boris Johnson has defended the Internal Market Bill by claiming it would “ensure the integrity of the UK internal market” and ensure there are no barriers to trade inside the UK after the first of the year, when Johnson has insisted the UK will be exiting the transition period no matter what, either with a free trade agreement or based on WTO rules.

The new bill had its first reading on Wednesday, following a series of leaks over the weekend that first introduced it. Johnson has repeatedly insisted that he wouldn’t extend the transition period for trade deal talks, and that he would have no problem leading the UK out of the bloc.

It outlines a new “safety net” of rules for trade between England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland to prevent disruption to the internal  market inside the UK, even in the event that Britain and the EU do not reach an agreement by the end of 2020. The bill would ensure there will be no new checks on goods moving from Northern Ireland to the rest of the UK, and gives Parliament the power to “disapply” rules relating to the movement of goods. It also specifically states that provisions in the law will override parts of the withdrawal agreement, where applicable.

Others have praised it as a coup for Johnson, with Tom Luongo arguing that the EU drew first blood during the withdrawal agreement negotiations, and that this move may be the thing that finally forces Brussels to cave completely even while they fulminate about the Brits “violating international law” by amending a standing treaty.

The news sent the pound lower against the dollar, driving the buck higher, and leading to claims that the move in FX helped catalyze the turn lower in stocks earlier this morning.

END

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

BEIRUT/LEBANON

Lebanon panics as it sees its 3rd major fire as it engulfs its major port.

(zerohedge)

Beirut Panics As Another Huge ‘Mystery’ Fire Engulfs The Port

Over a month after the Aug.4 ammonium nitrate blast which leveled whole parts of the Lebanese capital, killing at least 190 people and wounding over 6,000, Beirut is panicking once again as another huge fire engulfs the port on Thursday.

A new “massive is fire raging” Al Jazeera is describing. “There was no immediate information about what caused Thursday’s fire, which sent a large column of black smoke into the sky.”

“The Lebanese army said the blaze was at a warehouse where oil and tires are placed in the port’s duty free zone,” Al Jazeera continues.

Unlike a much smaller blaze which broke out Tuesday, reportedly after a controlled burn of a debris and trash heap accidentally spread, this one is large enough to be seen for miles.

A black smoke plume could be seen towering over the city, again eerily reminiscent of the Aug.4 disaster.

Military helicopters could be seen attempting to put out the fire, also as residents could be heard shouting from buildings, warning their neighbors about the new fire, according to local reports.

The cause is as yet unknown and regional reports are at this point offering few details.

Washington Post reporter Liz Sly says the blaze is so large that it’s turning the sky black again over Beirut, in reference to the original disaster over the city of over a month ago.

Anger was already boiling over as recent weeks have seen mass street protests at government negligence and corruption centered in the port, leading to the resignation of the prime minister and other top national government officials.

But this latest disaster in the making is sure to lead to breaking point, as some Lebanese on social media as well as regional journalists are already assuring.

Live Feed below:

developing…

6.Global Issues

What Possible Disruption Is Coming That Requires China To Start Massive Stockpiling Of All Possible Commodities

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Today is like one of those rare occasions when the Broadway understudy for a leading role finds out that the star has the ‘flu (not Covid-19) and so they get to go in front of the audience for once. Yes, Europe, today is your time to shine: “Everything’s coming up Milhouse!”.

Or not. Because the pressure is certainly on.

First, we have the ECB. The market whisper is that they have decided that a global backdrop where the Fed, BOE, RBA and RBNZ, among others, have all flagged that things remain grave, and that far more easing can still be; where a second wave of the virus is clearly evident; and where we are worryingly close to a Hard Brexit, is the right time to sell sunny economic uplands ahead. Or at least that is what the markets will perceive the outcome to be if we indeed see their economic forecasts revised upwards without the right serious tone. They will take that to mean that while everyone else is close to doing more, the ECB isn’t. And the impact, if we haven’t already seen it in buy-the-rumour, sell-the-fact manner, will be appropriate.

So over to the always-says-exactly-what-the-market-wants-to-hear ECB President Lagarde to try to explain how they are upbeat, but not so upbeat that anything needs to change in any of the wrong ways – like EUR hitting the roof, for example.

Second, we have the EU trying to deal with Brexit, where the UK is, on its own admittance, steering towards acting like a rogue state and unilaterally breaking international law. There is an emergency meeting today between the two sides and, frankly, it’s unclear if the UK is going to talk or declare “There is a bomb in this briefcase!” One would imagine that part of this might feed into the ECB’s thinking if the meetings overlap(?)

At the same time, the EU is dealing with China. EC executive vice-president Vestager is going to be talking to China’s Liu He, and the South China Morning Post reports the latter will be offering Europe the chance to join it in its proposed new China Network on data security….as opposed to the US Clean Network, being the unspoken part. Once again, we see Europe caught in the middle. Once again, it will probably “try to go its own way”. In the same way Europe doesn’t rely on the US in NATO and on the USD in the Eurodollar markets. The understudy, indeed.

Let’s see how Milhouse does when the spotlight shines.

Meanwhile, here is something to study. China has announced it plans to boost its strategic commodities reserves to assuage anxiety over energy and food security. Starting in 2021, it will make what Bloomberg calls “mammoth” purchases of crude, strategic materials, and farm goods, officials apparently say. This is being done to ensure China can ride out any repeat of this year’s supply disruptions, or a deterioration in trade relations with the US, for example. This is apparently part of the shift to “internal circulation”, or greater self-reliance, which is already being flagged, and which will kick in for the five year plan 2021-25.

Actually, those in the know know that this has already been happening across the board for some time: China has been swallowing up raw materials and strategic goods far in advance of what the economy needs right now. That means the drop in other imports –which are still down y/y overall even including this commodity surge– is even larger. (And why aren’t FX reserves rising even as the trade surplus soars…? Mmmm.)

Here’s the understudy way to study this: go long commodities! – because obviously China buying in vast quantities for years to come, right? Expect lots of stories like that.

Here’s the star way to think about it: what does it really say if China is stocking up so much? Has there ever been a point during trade tensions where anyone has ever threatened not to sell to China? The issue is always that trade partners don’t ONLY want to sell raw materials and unprocessed commodities to it, but rather to hold more of the technology and value chain themselves. That is as true for Europe as it is for the US.

What possible disruption could be on the horizon that would require China to have a large enough buffer of all conceivable inputs –in remote inland areas to boot– that it needs to use up its precious USD reserves in a bulk splurge now?

“Geopolitics”, as we say euphemistically? That hardly suggests the benign, sunny uplands that ECB is going to try to sell today, with its eyes firmly on its own shoes, RBA-style.

It can’t be on *imminent* concerns of the US acting on China’s USD access because all these purchases will presumably still be made in those precious USD, even in vast size,… right? Or is the idea with THAT much buying, a shift to CNY can be accelerated? For commodity sellers, that’s something to consider. So is that this would be a multi-year bull-run – and then a very sharp stop.

Indeed, theoretically China would no longer have to worry about not having enough of X, or Y, or Z; and it could simply stop buying from industry/country X, or Y, or Z for a year or two if prices were too high,….and watch them collapse,…until prices were again amenable, or the asset was for sale, or the relevant government ‘came to its senses’ on foreign policy.

I am not saying this is what China *IS* doing. Yet this is how anyone seeing trade geostrategically, or fearing that others are going to do the same, would think – and act. We have more than enough examples from history from all round the word; and our domestic economies are replete with monopoly and monosophy, and at the firm level we see the same game play out.

Is everything really coming up Milhouse, Milhouse?

But let’s ignore all that and watch Christine Lagarde try to explain why there may be marginally more of the inflation the ECB never generates ahead than the previous set of forecasts predicted, underlining why such forecasting is not worth doing anyway.

end

CORONAVIRUS/UPDATE GLOBE/

Global COVID-19 Deaths Top 900,000, China Confirms Another “Reinfected” Patient

Summary:

  • Global deaths top 900k
  • China confirms another reinfected patient
  • Europe cases top 4.6 million as outbreak worsens
  • India reports another record daily case total with 95k+
  • Victoria state sees another daily decline

* * *

Yet another case of COVID-19 reinfection has been confirmed Thursday after a man who traveled from the US to the eastern Chinese city of Nanjing reportedly tested positive for the coronavirus, after two negative tests in less than a month, the local government said.

The man was confirmed as infected on Sept. 9, and had been previously tested twice since his Aug. 11 arrival. The individual has been described as asymtpomatic.

Of course, we’ve reported on new research suggesting that “dead” virus RNA can trigger positive tests. But if the previously infected can trip tests months later, even after testing negative, that could raise new and uncomfortable questions about global infection tallies, while also offering some insight into the decline in global deaths

On Thursday, China reported seven new cases for the past 24 hours, up from just two a day earlier. All of the new cases were described as imported, including the case mentioned above, since they all allegedly involved travelers from overseas. China has gone 25 consecutive days with no local transmissions. Though South Korea raised important questions about China’s numbers earlier this week.

A few weeks ago, Hong Kong confirmed the first case of reinfection anywhere in the wold. Since then, others have been confirmed in Asia and Europe.

In other news, Australia’s state of Victoria reported 51 new cases and seven deaths from the virus, compared with 76 cases and 11 deaths a day earlier, in the latest sign that the outbreak is finally waning.

Once again, India reported a record single-day spike in cases and fatalities, with 95,735 infections and 1,172 deaths in the last 24 hours, bringing its COVID-19 total to more than 4.46 million and extending its lead over Brazil.

India’s death toll topped 75k, though it’s still well behind the 100k+ deaths recorded in Brazil.

In Europe, confirmed coronavirus cases have surpassed 4.6 million, according the WHO. The UK and 13 EU member states are currently “experiencing larger outbreaks of local transmission defined through an assessment of factors including, but not limited to: large numbers of cases not linkable to transmission chains; large numbers of cases from sentinel lab surveillance; and/or multiple unrelated clusters in several areas of the country/territory/area,” the WHO said in a statement.

The global COVID-19 rally reached 27,719,952 cases on Thursday….

….while the global death toll topped 901,050, the latest in a series of grim milestones. Forecasts from IHME, an organization affiliated with the University of Washington, has the world on track for 2.8 million deaths by January.

Though many critics have scoffed at these numbers, since a surge of new cases in Europe has seen far fewer deaths than the first wave.

end

7. OIL ISSUES

It’s happening again:  with the drop in oil,, traders are storing oil at sea.  This will continue as long as their is contango.

(zerohedge)

“It’s Happening Again” – Traders Store Oil At Sea As Recovery Falters 

Crude prices slid Thursday as the stalled global economic recovery from the virus pandemic triggers a “second wave” of demand fears and sparks renewed interest in floating storage as the oil market flips bearish.

Reuters said a “fresh build-up of global oil supplies, pushing traders including Trafigura to book tankers to store millions of barrels of crude oil and refined fuels at sea again.”

Floating storage, onboard crude tankers, comes as traditional onshore storage nears capacity as supply outpaces demand.

Total Oil Inventories 

Refinitiv vessel data shows trading house Trafigura has recently chartered at least five crude tankers, each capable of 2 million barrels of oil.

The inventory build up, driving up demand for floating storage comes as OPEC+ recently trimmed supply curbs from earlier this year on expectations demand would improve. Though with the peak summer driving season in the US now over, demand woes and oversupplied markets are pressuring crude and crude product prices.

Very large crude-oil carrier (VLCC) storage has started to rise once again.

“Despite the recent slide in oil prices, we think that the OPEC+ leadership will continue to direct its efforts towards securing better compliance rather than pushing for deeper cuts at this stage,” RBC analysts said.

Another catalyst for the bearish tilt in crude markets is that China’s oil imports are likely to subside as independent refineries have reached maximum annual oil import quotas.

Reuters notes, in a separate report, that other top commodity traders are booking tankers to store crude products at sea, including diesel and gasoline.

Refinitiv vessel data also shows Vitol, Litasco, and Glencor have been booking tankers in the last several days to store diesel for the next three months.

“The market is soft and bearish, and floating storage is returning again,” a market source told Reuters.

Morgan Stanley analyst Martijn Rats said in a note that “it is increasingly clear that market fundamentals are not improving as quickly as expected, particularly on the demand side.”

A faltering global economic recovery, combine with oversupplied crude markets and waning demand, is weighing down November Brent crude contracts, down 15% in the last seven sessions.

For more color on why the oil market rally is ‘fizzling out’ – OilPrice.com’s Simon Watkins explains the emerging themes to watch.

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings WEDNESDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1837 DOWN .0033 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS/CORONAVIRUS /PANDEMIC /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /MIXED

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 106.12 DOWN 0.015 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2964   DOWN   0.0033  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/

 

USA/CAN 1.3159 UP .0005 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  THURSDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL BY 8 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1219 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 19.80 POINTS OR 0.61% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 155.39 POINTS OR 0.64%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0,51%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL MIXED

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL MIXED 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 155.39 POINTS OR 0.64%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 19.80 POINTS OR 0.61%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.51% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 202.93  POINTS OR 0.88%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1946.50.10

silver:$27.08-

Early THURSDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 0.702% !!! UP 0 IN POINTS from WEDNESDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 1.459 UP 0  IN BASIS POINTS from WEDNESDAY night.

USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 93.08 DOWN 17 CENT(S) from  WEDNESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers THURSDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing  THURSDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.37% DOWN 1 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.03%  DOWN 0   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.35%//UP 2 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:1,01 UP 1 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 66 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES TO –.43% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.44% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR THURSDAY

Closing currency crosses for THURSDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1879  UP     .0075 or 75 basis points

USA/Japan: 106.21 DOWN .201 OR YEN UP 20  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2858 DOWN .013792 POUND DOWN 138  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 5 basis points to 1.3160

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 6.8344    ON SHORE  (UP)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.8318  (YUAN UP)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA: 7.4648 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +03%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 2 IN basis points from WEDNESDAY at 0.720 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 1.489 UP 3 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 92.99 DOWN 27  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for THURSDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 0.45  0.01%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 17.30 POINTS OR .13%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 15.64 POINTS 0.31%

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 20.40 POINTS or 0.29%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 40.28 POINTS OR 0.20%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 37.78 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 40.51 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE RISES:    75.04  THE CROSS LOWER BY 0.27 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE HIGHER BY 27 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES  TO –.43 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  37.03//

 

 

BRENT :  39.83

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 0.680..DOWN 3 BASIS POINTS…

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 1.425.DOWN 3 BASIS POINTS.

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.1816 ( UP 12   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:106.13 DOWN .102 (YEN UP 10 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 93.39 UP 13 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.2810 DOWN 187  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 7.4474

 

 

the Russian rouble 75.21   UP 0.10 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( UP 10 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3190 DOWN 38 BASIS pts

 

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.43%

 

The Dow closed DOWN 405.89 POINTS OR 1.45%

 

NASDAQ closed DOWN 221.97 POINTS OR 1.99%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  29.71 CLOSED UP .90

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 0.249%//libor dropping like a stone

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

Brexit Butterflies & Bailout Bill Breakdown Crush Cable, Bust Big-Tech Bounce

Cable’s collapse made the headlines today on Brexit concerns – its biggest daily drop in six months (6th daily drop in 7 days)…

Source: Bloomberg

But, as Bloomberg noted, the Brexit breakdown between the EU and the U.K. may have been blamed for the initial down move in stocks, but it happened 10 minutes before the selloff. The trigger actually appears to have been a sell program hit the tape at precisely 1045ET. Then another sell program at 1320ET as DEMOCRATS VOTE TO BLOCK SENATE REPUBLICANS’ STIMULUS BILL.

And finally, we note that at around 1430ET (Margin call time), everything tanked (liquidation for dollars) – with bonds, gold, and stocks all diving as the dollar rallied:

Source: Bloomberg

3 things kept the dream alive in the last few weeks…

  • The Fed – hasn’t bought any HY/IG bonds in a while and balance sheet flat
  • Stimulus – fail on any further deal (McConnell Senate comments and skinny bailout bill didn’t pass Senate)
  • Vaccine – the AstraZeneca news did not help

Stocks in a world of their own as corporate bonds were unable to gain without Fed balance sheet juicage…

Source: Bloomberg

Markets were a chaotic mess today with Nasdaq the highest beta shenanigans, down 1% pre-open, up 1.5% after the bell, to -2% around margin call time

Nasdaq fell back into correction…

Nasdaq and Small Caps tumbled back to their 50DMA…

Of course, this is but a mere fleshwound compared to recent exuberance…

Tech wrecked again as the dead cat bounce died again…

Source: Bloomberg

FANGs faltered to their lowest close since Aug 17th…

Source: Bloomberg

Notably there is no rotation – both value and growth are down (and up together)… i.e. it’s a grossing-down!

Source: Bloomberg

As stocks accelerated lower, Treasuries were bid…

Source: Bloomberg

With 10Y Yields reversing at unchanged on the week, back below 70bps once again…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar spiked as stocks weakened, after tumbling on EUR strength following ECB comments…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin roundtripped to unch after tagging $10,500 at the highs…

Source: Bloomberg

As the dollar rallied, gold was clubbed into the red, as more liquidation-type flows hit around 1430ET…

Silver futures slipped back below $27…

WTI tumbled back to a $36 handle …

Finally, is it over for Tesla and the Musketeers?

Source: Bloomberg

Because we’ve seen this party before, and it didn’t end well…

Source: Bloomberg

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

Continuing jobless claims continue to disappoint..Part tim jobs recover but full time lags

(zerohedge)

Continuing Jobless Claims Disappoint As Part-Time Jobs Recover, Full-Time Lags

For some reason, the line in the sand for ‘good’ news on initial jobless claims has become 1 million. Twice in the last four weeks, there has been fewer than 1 million Americans filing for first time unemployment benefits (and before that there were 20 straight weeks well above 1 million per week).

Last week saw 884k Americans filed for first time claims – oddly the exact same as the revised higher number from the prior week…

Source: Bloomberg

But, non-seasonally-adjusted initial claimsrose for the second week in a row…

Source: Bloomberg

Disappointingly, continuing claims rose week-over-week by 131k top 13.385 million…

Source: Bloomberg

California, Texas, and Puerto Rico saw major increases in jobless claims while Florida, Kentucky, and Michigan saw an improvement…

The jump in unemployment claims is coming mainly from the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) program. PUA is mainly for self-employed and gig workers. It implies many still can’t find steady work. There were 840k PUA filings last week, up from 748k the week before.

Source: Bloomberg

In fact, as Mike Shedlock notes, since the April bottom, part-time employment has regained a much greater share of employees who were laid off.

Employment Recovery

Part-Time Employment Recovery

Full-Time Employment Recovery 

Full-time employment is up more in raw numbers but lags on a percentage basis.

Four months in, the part-time employment recovery is 68.1% vs 47.9% for full-time employment. Overall, the recovery is only 54.8%. 

Part-time employment will recover first and then some. In a few months, it may exceed 100%.

 end
Market watch on the above unemployment benefits numbers:

MarketWatch

Many Americans still applying for unemployment benefits

The numbers: The number of people who applied for unemployment benefits through state and federal programs rose in the first week of September, perhaps a sign that a gradual improvement in the labor market might be stalling.

Initial jobless claims filed traditionally through state employment offices were unchanged at a seasonally adjusted 884,000 in the week of Aug. 30 to Sept. 5 , the Labor Department said Thursday. Economists polled by MarketWatch had forecast new claims to fall to 840,000.

Yet new claims rose when including self-employed workers who applied for benefits under a separate federal program. Some 838,916 people filed under the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance Act, up from 747,993 in the prior week.

That put the number of actual or unadjusted new claims at 1.69 million, compared to 1.59 million in the prior week.

New claims might be rising partly because President Trump temporarily increased benefits by $300 after a $600 stipend expired at the end of July, economists say.

More ominously, the increase could reflect a fresh wave of layoffs in hard-hit businesses such as airlines and hotels. Major companies such as American Airlines and MGM Resorts said they would cut more jobs permanently because demand is still in a slump and federal benefits have gone away.

What happened: New jobless claims rose the most in California (18,000), with somewhat smaller increases in Texas and Lousiana.

Continuing jobless claims, or the number of people already receiving benefits, rose by 93,000 to a seasonally adjusted 13.39 million in the seven days ended Aug. 29. It was the first increase in five weeks.

Two weeks ago, the Bureau of Labor Statistics changed its process for seasonal adjustments to make its report more accurate. The level of seasonally adjusted jobless claims had run notably higher during the pandemic than the real or actual number of people applying for benefits. Now the two sets of numbers are more closely aligned.

For a fuller explanation, read about the big change in jobless claims

Altogether, the number of people getting benefits through eight state and federal programs increased by 380,379 an unadjusted 29.6 million as of Aug. 22. The data is released with a two-week delay.

Big picture: The number of layoffs each week would still be at record highs when compared to any other period since World War Two. What’s also worrisome is a spate of recent announcements by major airlines and hotels that they will permanently cut thousands of jobs because their industries remain mired in a historic slump.

Still, the labor market and broader economy have continued to expand through the summer and a rapid decline in coronavirus cases could help speed up growth absent another outbreak. In many ways, the U.S. economy has proven more resilient despite the terrible blow inflicted by the virus.

-END-

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

JC PENNEY

JC Penney reaches a last minute deal with its landlords to avoid liquidation.  Brookfield and Simon will own a major portion of the chain.  In essence Brookfield will be paying rent to itself

(zerohedge)

J.C. Penney Reaches $800 Million Rescue Deal With Landlords To Avoid Liquidation

Don’t count the venerable – if bankrupt – department store and mall anchor tenant, J.C. Penney out just yet.

One week after we reported that J.C. Penney (docket #20-20182, in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of Texas) was on the verge of liquidation after talks with its two largest landlords had collapsed, today the company’s lenders reached a tentative deal with mall landlords Simon Property Group and Brookfield Property Partners to buy the bankrupt chain. The deal, valued at $1.75 billion, would rescue the beleaguered department store chain from bankruptcy proceedings, averting a liquidation that would have threatened roughly 70,000 jobs and represented one of the most significant business collapses following the coronavirus pandemic, Joshua Sussberg, a Kirkland & Ellis LLP lawyer representing the company, said during a brief court hearing Wednesday, confirming an earlier Reuters report.

The landlords are poised to put $300 million toward the rescue and have agreed to a nonbinding letter of intent with J.C. Penney, he said. The operating company they are acquiring would assume $500 million of debt. The deal also calls for new financing from existing lenders; in the end, J.C. Penney will have about $1 billion of cash to fund its business when the deal closes, Sussberg said.

The financing includes a commitment for $2 billion of new asset-based lending led by Wells Fargo, as well as $500 million of so-called takeback debt from existing first-lien lenders, he said. The deal would split J.C. Penney into an operating company and two real estate holding companies.

The restructured retailer is expected to operate about 650 stores, according to Reuters: hedge funds and private-equity firms financing J.C. Penney’s bankruptcy, meanwhile, would take ownership of 161 of those stores and separate distribution centers after forgiving portions of the Plano, Texas-based company’s $5 billion debt load, Sussberg said. These lenders, led by H/2 Capital Partners, would own those assets in two separate real estate investment trusts.

The Wall Street Journal reported earlier that the deal is valued at about $800 million, with the mall owners taking about 490 of the chain’s 650 stores. Lenders would swap some of their debt for control of another 160 locations and the distribution centers, which would be rented back to the landlords, the Journal reported.

“The transaction between the lenders, the company, and Simon and Brookfield contemplates a $1.75 billion total enterprise, plus a post-closing earn-out and a significantly negotiated working capital adjustment,” Sussberg said in the hearing.

J.C. Penney plans to move at “lightning speed” to seek approval of the deal from a bankruptcy judge in early October, Sussberg said. “We are in a position to move this into the endzone,” he told U.S. Bankruptcy Judge David Jones, noting that previous talks were in the “red zone” before faltering and then gaining renewed traction.

The iconic 118-year-old retailer, which went public at the start of the Great Depression, filed for bankruptcy in a Texas court in May after the pandemic forced it to temporarily close its then nearly 850 stores. Should it survive, J.C. Penney will have withstood unprecedented economic turmoil stemming from the pandemic and bankruptcy proceedings that have felled other retailers during less fraught times. In recent years, Toys ‘R’ Us Inc and Barneys New York Inc failed to reorganize under bankruptcy protection and liquidated.

A deal is not yet completed, Sussberg cautioned. Talks with the landlords have hit roadblocks before, and the parties engaged in screaming matches as recently as Wednesday, he said. Negotiations continued during phone calls moments before the court hearing, he added.

If the tentative deal falls apart, J.C. Penney would resume its course for liquidation. Sussberg expressed optimism a deal would be codified and the judge encouraged the parties to keep working to seal an agreement.

“Time, as we’ve mentioned over and over again, is not our friend,” Sussberg said. “It is important — for this transaciton to stay together and for all these stores to stay open and for the 70-plus-thousand employees to stay employed — for us to move with lightning speed.”

J.C. Penney’s survival has hinged on sale negotiations, which have consumed the summer and drawn urgent directives from the company’s bankruptcy judge for parties to set aside what he labeled egos and negotiating postures to consummate a deal to save the beleaguered retailer. The talks dragged on for weeks in part amid haggling over lease terms, Reuters sources said. In late August, the discussions with Simon and Brookfield reached an impasse, prompting J.C. Penney to ask lenders to take control of its retail operations in addition to the real estate investment trusts they envisioned owning. After further discussions, the company reached a deal with Simon and Brookfield to buy the retail operations.

Any deal would require approval from the company’s bankruptcy judge and potentially be subject to competing bids in a court-supervised auction. This means that private equity firm Sycamore Partners and Saks Fifth Avenue owner Hudson’s Bay may have another say in the final transaction; the two vied for J.C. Penney’s retail business earlier this summer.

Simon, the largest mall operator in the United States, has already this year negotiated separate deals to rescue the two-centuries-old men’s apparel clothier Brooks Brothers and denim retailer Lucky Brand from bankruptcy. Brookfield in May said it would devote $5 billion to non-controlling investments designed to revitalize retailers struggling in the wake of the coronavirus outbreak. In effect, Brookfield is paying rent to itself to avoid even more rent shortfalls.

END

I think i am right on this one:  it looks like the USA is declining in hospitalizations and deaths. Also Colleges are reporting zero deaths as the virus seems to leave students alone as they have not they developed ACE 2 receptors. If I am correct the coronavirus will morph into the common cold by December.

(Horowitz/ConservativeReview.com)

1000s Of Cases But Zero Hospitalizations In Colleges: Good News But States Force Draconian Lockdowns

Authored by Daniel Horowitz via ConservativeReview.com,

Remember the goal of flattening the curve?

Ensuring that hospitals weren’t overrun? Well, what do you call a scenario where thousands of cases result in zero hospitalizations? I’d call it the ultimate flat curve – or downright flat line.

Yet rather than recognizing the detection of mild cases among college students as portents of good news, universities continue to sow panic for no good reason.

If we had in place the strict eligibility threshold for COVID-19 testing that we had in March when tests were scarce, we quite literally would not know the “epidemic” of mild and asymptomatic cases on college campus even exists. After being open for weeks, college campuses have no reported deaths or even hospitalizations that I can find. You might say that’s because they’ve done such an amazing job preventing cases. Nope: They have tons of reported cases. Dr. Andrew Bostom, a cardiovascular and epidemiology researcher, posted a spreadsheet on twitter of all the cases in 17 state university systems as of September 4:

There is not a single hospitalization among them. How is this an emergency situation? If anything, the fact that there are so many cases is a blessing, because, with such a young population, these cases are a de facto vaccine, creating herd immunity without danger.

Despite this blessing, the University of Arizona has hired a private security company to “patrol and ensure compliance of health and safety directives” on campus, essentially turning the campus into a prison and criminalizing the lives of young adults who have near-zero risk from the virus. They must be suffering the epidemic of the century there in order to warrant such heavy-handed policing, right?

Well, according to Dr. Richard Carmona at the College of Public Health at the University of Arizona, they found a few “cases” at a sorority house and “were able to identify, very early, before anybody was symptomatic, that there were sick people in their dorm.”

The horror! Some asymptomatic cases. What are they going to do during the flu season when even young people actually get sick for a week? The entire purpose of counting cases during an epidemic is because they might predict mass casualties. During this pseudo-epidemic on college campuses, they need to count cases to even know they exist. But if they don’t result in serious illness, then what is the purpose of counting them more than rhinovirus colds?

Then there is the issue of what exactly these PCR tests are detecting. Many of them could be false positives, insignificant viral loads, or the dead RNA of a virus that passed weeks ago still being carried around in the student’s nasal passages. There is no metric for any of this being monitored in the testing. The irony of the University of Arizona using positive testing of benign cases as the baseline for such draconian measures is that so many of those tests turn out to be false positives. Out of the 13 positive results among members of the university’s athletics department last week, 11 of them turned out to be false upon retesting.

By sending your children to Ohio’s public colleges, you are essentially sending them off to jail, because it’s nearly impossible for them not to be quarantined. Ohio State University is conducting mandatory random testing of 8,000 students each week via their “surveillance testing program.” Based on everything we know about false positive or old dead viral RNA, it’s a near-certainty that the testing will net dozens of people every week. Now, this order will force numerous friends and dorm-mates to be confined as well.

It’s becoming self-evident every week that the virus that is really spreading is an incorrigible psychosis. Rather than confining our youth for a cold that might not even spread in its asymptomatic form, perhaps its time to start confining some of the public health officials … to a mental health facility.

END

This is a surprise:  USA firms are still sticking (operating in China) with China despite the belief that tensions will persist for years.

(zerohedge)

US Firms Sticking With China Despite Belief That Tensions Will Persist For Years

With Sino-U.S. relations deteriorating, American companies operating in China believe tensions between the world’s two biggest economies will remain in place for years, according to a new survey.

About 92% of respondents said they would continue operating in China even as soaring tensions between Beijing and Washington are expected, the study said, which was published Wednesday by the American Chamber of Commerce (AmCham) in Shanghai. These deeply rooted multinational corporations have revenues over $500 million per year – it appears these corporations are snubbing President Trump’s push to decouple both economies.

“Under my administration, we will make America into the manufacturing superpower of the world and we’ll end our reliance on China, once and for all, whether it’s decoupling or putting in massive tariffs like I’ve been doing already,” Trump said in a Labor Day speech on Monday

The survey reveals an overwhelming number of respondents have zero plans on reverting manufacturing plants to the U.S. Only 4.3% said they would move back stateside.

When it comes to how long the souring relations would last, at least 25% of U.S. firms surveyed said tensions between both countries would last “indefinitely,” compared to 17% a year ago. About 20% said tensions would last 3-5 years, up from 10% in 2019. Only 14% of firms believed tensions would be resolved in the next 12 months.

Ker Gibbs, president of AmCham, said U.S. firms operating in China are hoping Beijing and Washington can resolve “outstanding issues” in the near term.

“U.S. businesses in China would like to see the two countries resolve their outstanding issues quickly and reduce tensions. A workable cooperative framework for the next decade would be a good place to focus discussions,” Gibbs said in a statement.

But with tensions unlikely to be resolved this year, Gibbs said AmCham members are awaiting clarity from the U.S. government about U.S. firms using popular Chinese messaging app WeChat. He said the lack of clarity surrounding WeChat from Washington is like “pins and needles right now,” adding “if American businesses in China have to stop using WeChat, this would be devastating.”

“Members are concerned, but dedicated to the market, which is attractive, large, and growing. We are aware of the national security issues and members hope that there can be some rebalancing of the relationship,” Gibbs said. “A lot of members do feel a bit of whiplash from the past three-and-a-half years and want to see a more long-term strategy.”

To make matters worse, nearly a third of respondents said souring tensions have made it more challenging over the last several years to retain staff in the country, as Chinese workers shun U.S. firms.

The survey was conducted in June and July of this year and didn’t cover the latest spikes in tension between both countries. For instance, the push to decouple by Trump, and China, indicating it may cut some of its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds and notes, serves as a warning that relations will only deteriorate from here.

If readers want more color on, the already decoupling, well, check out the chart below:

In terms of trade flows between both countries, decoupling started during the trade war.

END

This is something that we must watch out for: Guru Zoltan warns!

(zerohedge)

 

Zoltan Pozsar Spots A Possible Year-End Funding Crisis, But Not Everyone Agrees

It seems like an eternity ago and in far simpler time, when bond markets were worried about such trivial things as bank reserve and funding levels, and repo rate squeezes. And yet, it was almost exactly one year ago, on Sept 16 (the 11th anniversary of the Lehman collapse), when it suddenly became apparent that despite $1.3 trillion in “excess” reserves, there was not enough liquidity in the system. A month later we were the first to piece together the puzzle, which confirmed that it was JPMorgan’s drain of over $100 billion in repo and money market liquidity that was the precipitating factor for the repo market collapse. In other words, not only did JPMorgan precipitate the repocalypse  (and it’s not just us who make this claim, but other more “reputable” websites and news sources have since joined our clarion call), but with its actions it also triggered the launch of the repo liquidity flood and, a few weeks later, the Fed $60BN in T-Bill purchases, aka QE4. This dynamic grew to become the biggest market event of 2019.

Of course, considering what happened just 6 months later when the Fed nationalized the bond market on March 23, 2020, launched unlimited QE, injected $3 trillion in liquidity in three months and started corporate bond buying, the gnashing of teeth over the repocalypse seems oddly trivial. Indeed, the recent explosion in bank reserves has made any concerns about repo underfunding an ancient anachronism. If anything, banks – not to mention Robinhood daytraders – are swimming in a sea of liquidity.

Yet a new dynamic could mean that a year-end funding squeeze is once again on the table, similar to what happened in both 2019 and also 2018.

In a note published earlier this week by former NY Fed staffer and current Credit Suisse strategist, Zoltan Pozsar, the repo guru gives a preview of this week’s release of bank Y-15 report, and looks at various banks’ G-SIB scores with a focus once again on – guess who – JPMorgan, and predicts that as a result of “regulatory changes and market trends since the Covid-19 pandemic”, JPMorgan’s capital surcharge could gap higher from 3.5% in the first quarter by as much as 100 bps to 4.5% in the second quarter.

He explains his reasoning as follows:

Regarding the likely path of the second quarter scores, three developments are worth noting.

  • First, the April 1st, 2020 exemption of reserves and Treasuries from the calculation of the SLR will reduce “total leverage exposure” used to calculate the size systemic risk scores. This exemption, plus inputs already available from banks’ Y-9C reports on securities outstanding, level 3 assets, and available-for-sale and trading securities that aren’t HQLA point to a 20 point decline in categories that make up about a half of J.P. Morgan’s G-SIB score.
  • Second, repo books and derivatives activity are down since the first quarter, and that should also help scores fall some.
  • Third, and in contrast to the first two, FX swap books are up a lot since the first quarter, which has the potential to mitigate or even offset the decline in scores coming from the above sources.

This “expansion of FX swap books” on JPM’s balance sheet during Q2 likely pushed its capital surcharge score into the 4.5% capital surcharge bucket…

… which according to Pozsar, “would mean much less FX swap intermediation at J.P. Morgan going into year-end and a year-end turn much worse than what’s currently being priced by the market – unless U.S. banks with lower G-SIB scores or foreign banks pick up the slack.”

Now, when Pozsar – who is among the handful of people who has intimate knowledge and understanding of the US repo system plumbing – speaks everyone – especially those at the Fed shut up and listen: after all, he predicted with uncanny accuracy the events of the repocalypse and also the Fed’s “all in” response to the covid pandemic.

Yet this time not everyone agrees, because now that banks have released the latest Y-15 reports that regulators use to determine how much extra capital the largest banks must hold, debate around the likelihood of funding market stress over year-end has intensified.

Case in point: another prominent STIR strategist, BMO’s Jon Hill, agrees with Pozsar that the balance-sheet snapshots taken of the major banks in the first quarter show four moved into a higher surcharge zone for G-SIBS, global systemically important banks. Hill adds that the largest US bank, JPMorgan, is “by far the most likely” to jump to a higher bucket – meaning at the year-end assessment regulators could require a bigger surcharge. No disagreement with Pozsar here.

However, where Hill disagrees with the closely-followed Hungarian, is in his assessment about year end funding stress: unlike Pozsar, he is “skeptical” that it will emerge for two reasons:

  • First, snapshots from Q1 “were taken near peak Covid-crisis stress and may not be applicable to later in the year”, and the four banks in question were all able to manage their G-SIB scores in the prior quarter; “if they do so again, three of the four will revert to the prior G-SIB bucket.”
  • Second, while banks managing their balance sheets may itself cause stress, G-SIB scores were notably lowered last year “without corresponding disruptions to funding markets.”

Will Hill be right in expecting banks to self-police themselves in a time of record excess reserves thus avoiding a year-end funding crunch, or will Pozsar be correct in predicting a collapse in FX intermediation by JPM, which in turn could lead to a sharp liquidity squeeze? The answer could have substantial implications not only on the repo market which will be directly impacted, but also on overall funding conditions and ultimately, widespread risk assets.

How to trade it? As Hill concludes, based on his expectation of “a relatively quiet year-end”, the BMO strategist recommends selling the December 2020 FRA/OIS contract, which however has already collapsed from its March wides. On the other hand, if Pozsar is right then FRA/OIS is likely to blow out, which would be especially odd in a time when the Fed has provided unlimited liquidity via both QE and unlimited repo operations.

And yet… it is Pozsar, and he has yet to make a prediction that falls short.

Of course, it will be ironic if despite the Fed’s $7 trillion balance sheet, it is none other than JPM which demonstrates to the market how even that record liquidity is not sufficient to cover all funding needs. It will be even more ironic if it is JPMorgan that, just like during the “NOT QE” phase is the bank that prompt the next massive, multi-trillion liquidity injection which, one way or another, will push the S&P to fresh all time highs for the simple reason that the Fed will never allow the biggest US bank to fail if the opportunity cost is creating a few trillion electronic dollars with the push of a button.

en

La Nina arrives and threatens bigger fire blazes and bigger storms

(zerohedge)

Oregon Faces “Greatest Loss Of Life In State History” From Wildfires As La Nina “Threatens Bigger Blazes, Storms”

As wildfires move north from California, the state of Oregon is being engulfed in dangerous wildfires – some of the most destructive in its history – as La Nina conditions drive some of the worst wildfires seen in the American West in years.

The weather pattern has also been blamed for the latest string of hurricanes that have hammered Gulf Coast and East Coast states over the past several months.

As of late Wednesday, 47 active fires have burned 374,522 acres in the Beaver State, according to the Oregon Office of Emergency Management.

Gov. Kate Brown said the communities of Blue River and Vida in Lane County had been devastated by wildfires this week, while Phoenix and Talent, in the southern part of the state, have reported “significant damage,” the Portland Tribune reported.

Brown said, “this could be the greatest loss of life and structures due to wildfire in state history. “

The state’s fires remain largely unchallenged Thursday morning as emergency personnel continues to evacuate thousands of people to safety. Doug Grafe, with the Department of Forestry, said the fire situation in the state is “zero percent containment.”

“The largest blaze is the Santiam/Beachie Creek Fire, at 132,450 acres burned east of Salem. It is zero percent contained. The Lionshead Fire has burned 109,222 acres. Fire officials said they expected the fires in the Santiam River area to combine into one large blaze about 3,000 firefighters are deployed,” The Tribune said.

The wildfires burning on Oregon come as “historic” wildfires burn out of control across California. Gov. Gavin Newsom said Tuesday that as many as 3,400 building structures had been destroyed with at least 2.3 million acres burned.

As the following chart shows, air quality across California and Oregon is at an extremely dangerous level…

Source: PurpleAir

Volatile U.S. weather this summer could be explained by an ultra-cool water pattern in the Pacific known as La Nina. The U.S. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) confirmed La Nina in the Northern Hemisphere was formed in August.

La Nina “triggers an atmospheric chain reaction that stands to roil weather around the globe, often turning the western U.S. into a tinder box, fueling more powerful hurricanes in the Atlantic and flooding parts of Australia and South America,” Bloomberg said.

The CPC said La Nina produces broad changes to weather patterns that create ‘bigger wildfires’ and more tropical activity in certain parts of the Northern Hemisphere.

“We’re already in a bad position, and La Nina puts us in a situation where fire-weather conditions persist into November and possibly even December,” said Ryan Truchelut, president of Weather Tiger LLC. “It is exacerbating existing heat and drought issues.”

Readers may recall we highlighted LA Nina risks developing in early August. 

iv) Swamp commentaries)

What an absolute joke!!

Adam Schiff’s Latest Russia ‘Whistleblower’ Investigated By House Intel, Inspector General, & Was Fired From DHS For Surveilling Press

On Wednesday, Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA) has unveiled a new whistleblower – former DHS intelligence official Brian Murphy, who claims that Trump administration officials at the White House and Department of Homeland Security suppressed intelligence reports that Russia is interfering in the 2020 election, and ‘altered intelligence’ related to comments made by President Trump.

“We’ve received a whistleblower complaint alleging DHS suppressed intel reports on Russian election interference, altered intel to match false Trump claims and made false statements to Congress,” Schiff tweeted, adding “We will investigate.”

Except, Schiff did investigate – his whistleblower – for allegedly ‘providing incomplete and potentially misleading information to Committee staff,’ according to the New York Times.

Not only that, Murphy was fired from his job as the head of DHS’s intelligence branch and reassigned after he compiled reports about protesters and journalists reporting on the Trump administration’s response to the riots in Portland, Oregon in July.

Brian Murphy, the acting under secretary for intelligence and analysis, was reassigned to a new position in the department after his office disseminated to the law enforcement community “open-source intelligence reports” containing Twitter posts of journalists, noting they had published leaked unclassified documents, according to an administration official familiar with the matter. It was not clear what Mr. Murphy’s new position would be. –New York Times

As a result of Murphy’s actions, acting DHS Secretary Chad Wolf asked the Inspector General to investigate.

And now, Murphy is a ‘whistleblower’ and has things to say. Did Schiff get him to flip? And if so, is he telling the truth?

end

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

Trump privately said coronavirus ‘is deadly stuff’ and knew it was highly contagious at start of February despite claiming to have it under control – then said ‘I like playing it down,’ [because I don’t want to create a panic.‘] bombshell tapes by Bob Woodward reveal

   The nation’s top infectious disease expert, Dr. Anthony Fauci, turned in a harsh review of Trump’s actions in private – even as he tries to temper comments in public.  Woodward quotes Fauci calling Trump ‘rudderless’ and saying his ‘attention span is like a minus number.’ ‘His sole purpose is to get reelected,‘ Fauci told an associate, according to the book…

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8714883/Donald-Trump-called-coronavirus-deadly-stuff-recorded-Bob-Woodward-interviews-February.html

 

Trump on March 30: The statements I made are: I want to keep the country calm I don’t want to panic in the country.  I could cause panic much better than even you [reporter].  I could do much — I would make you look like a minor league player.  But you know what?  I don’t want to do that.  I want to have our country be calm and strong, and fight and win, and it will go away.  And it is incredible the job that all of these people are doing — putting them all together — the job that they’re doing…

   Well, it’s — it’s so bad for the economy, but the economy is number two on my list.  First, I want to save a lot of lives.  We’re going to get the economy back.  I think the economy is going to come back very fast…

https://ge.usembassy.gov/remarks-by-president-trump-and-members-of-the-coronavirus-task-force-in-a-press-briefing-march-30/

 

Why would Trump sit for 18 recorded interviews with Deep Establishment figure Bob Woodward for a book that was due weeks before the election?  What a dope! It won’t change many votes, but jeez!

 

Tucker Carlson, citing a source, reported that Sen. Lindsey Graham, the late John McCain’s BFF, convinced Trump to allow Woodward to interview him.  Graham pimped out DJT to Woodward.

 

@Peoples_Pundit: Trump’s desire to want to be liked by a class of low character elites in media and politics, makes him his own worst enemy… Woodward was in on the Collusion Delusion for three years.

 

Fauci Foils Latest ‘Bombshell’ – “Trump Didn’t Distort Anything”

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/while-fauci-who-and-pelosi-downplayed-covid-trump-knew-it-was-deadly-restricting-china

 

Dr. Anthony Fauci disputes quote attributed to him in the Woodward book“I don’t recall that at all.”

https://twitter.com/SteveGuest/status/1303767377885171714

 

Dr. Fauci says that he never got the sense that President Trump was downplaying COVID-19: “I didn’t get any sense that he was distorting anything. In my discussions with him, they were always straightforward about the concerns that we had…”  https://twitter.com/DailyCaller/status/1303762016151232513

 

Fauci: I didn’t see any discrepancies between what we told [Trump] and what he told the public.  He didn’t say anything different than we discussed when we were with him…I didn’t get the sense he distorted anything…”   https://twitter.com/FrancisBrennan/status/1303763049904513027

 

@jennfranconews: President Trump calls latest claims against him in new Woodward book “another political hit job.”

 

@CBSNews: President Trump defends his comments to Bob Woodward about downplaying the COVID-19 pandemic, saying he “had to show calm” and “the last thing we can show is panic or excitement or fear.”  https://cbsn.ws/2DKlzT7

 

@ABC: “The fact is I’m a cheerleader for this country, I love our country, and I don’t want people to be frightened. I don’t want to create panic, as you say,” President Trump says when asked if he downplayed the danger of COVID-19 to reduce panic. http://abcn.ws/3m4WO5q

 

Trump downplayed COVID-19 to prevent mass panic, McEnany claims

Our food supply chains were at riskWe could not have mass runs on grocery stores. The markets also, the economy was in play here,” she said.  “We didn’t want it to be a huge crash and panic and he expressed calm from this podium and he has always taken it seriously,”… https://trib.al/STaDB68

 

@guyelster: Woodward: “Mattis quietly went to Washington National Cathedral to pray for the nation’s fate under Trump’s command and told Dan Coats that there may come a time when we have to take collective action” since Trump is “dangerous. He’s unfit.”

 

Woodward: Trump insulted Obama’s intelligence, called him ‘overrated’- “I don’t think Obama’s smart… I think he’s highly overrated. And I don’t think he’s a great speaker.”… https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/515670-woodward-trump-insulted-obamas-intelligence-called-him-overrated#.X1kUTAS5No4.twitter

 

@seanmdav: The rollout of Bob Woodward’s anti-Trump book started this week. The rollout for HR McMaster’s anti-Trump book starts next week. And right after that is through, the rollout for Russian collusion hoaxer John Brennan’s deranged anti-Trump book will begin.

 

Are Americans ignoring the incessant cries of ‘wolf’ and ‘fire’ from Trump haters?

 

@ABC: Attorney General Bill Barr says cities across the U.S. have “recklessly slashed police funding at a time when their residents need protection more than ever. This is misguided and shortsighted policy, and I fear the costs will be devastating.” https://abcn.ws/33buOoe

 

GOP sees voter reg surge as fall campaign begins – Mail-in ballots in Pennsylvania go out on Sept. 14, and Republicans are seeing continued growth in voter registration, a Capital-Star analysis has found…It appears then that Republicans are coming home in two ways. First, disaffected Democrats are finally officially joining the GOP. Second, soft Trump voters are now resolved to show up and vote…

https://www.penncapital-star.com/government-politics/gop-sees-voter-reg-surge-as-fall-campaign-begins-analysis/

 

Biden yesterday in Michigan: “And what makes his wild claims and hopes, he now hopes we don’t notice what he said, or won’t remember, and when he does follow through, or doesn’t do, when follow through, the exact opposite.”   https://twitter.com/TrumpWarRoom/status/1303766312892747784

 

Joe had a problem reading numbers yesterday.

https://twitter.com/JFNYC1/status/1303829299577982983

 

Joe Biden Claims 6,000 Military Members Dead From COVID. The Real Number Is 7

https://dailycaller.com/2020/09/09/joe-biden-coronavirus-military-deaths/

 

Another awkward Biden moment

https://twitter.com/JFNYC1/status/1303795653877825541

 

Joe Biden Hosts Instagram Q&A – Doesn’t Answer Questions

“I’m answering your questions. Ask me anything!” said Biden in a recent Instagram Story… Over the next 24 hours, however, the Democrat nominee did not appear to answer any questions…

https://www.breitbart.com/tech/2020/09/09/joe-biden-hosts-instagram-qa-doesnt-answer-questions/

 

Biden pick creates furor, underscoring bitterness over Obama immigration policy

Immigration advocates are livid over the Biden transition team’s addition of Cecilia Muñoz, a former Obama administration official who was the public face of that administration’s immigration policy…

    “Huge mistake. Huge. Huge mistake…“Cecilia Muñoz is the one person besides [Trump White House aide] Steven Miller who has spent years of her public service dedicated to the smooth execution of mass deportation policy at the West Wing level,” said Manríquez.…

https://thehill.com/policy/515581-biden-pick-creates-furor-underscoring-bitterness-over-obama-immigration-policy

 

The Biden Campaign Is Hiding Kamala Harris–Here’s Why

If Harris were to be more visible than Biden, it would undermine the ostensible rationale for Biden’s limited visibility…“[Harris’s] likability factor doesn’t seem to be particularly high,”… they’re keeping [Harris] off the campaign trail because they don’t want her out there saying the kinds of things that she has said in the past, because it will scare a lot of moderate voters

https://www.breitbart.com/radio/2020/09/08/peter-schweizer-the-biden-campaign-is-hiding-kamala-harris-heres-why/

 

Hunter Biden-tied fund helped Communist China obtain a Michigan auto parts maker

Co-buyer AVIC identified as front for China’s military, and sanctioned before Obama administration approved Biden-connected sale… 

https://justthenews.com/accountability/political-ethics/how-hunter-biden-tied-hedge-fund-helped-communist-china-obtain

 

A best of Biden video: https://twitter.com/BernardKerik/status/1303709787432124416

 

Dan Rather on Atlantic‘s Trump Story: ‘Whether He Said It or Not, It Is Believable to a Lot of People’ [And that’s all one needs to know about contemporary ‘journalism’] https://t.co/yepfNJMV5d

 

Op-ed in Newsweek: Collusion between Democrats and the Media Reaches a New Low

As soon as The Atlantic published the article, on-the-record statement after statement from actual firsthand witnesses of the discussions at issue came out to discredit Mr. Goldberg’s claims… the quick unraveling of Mr. Goldberg’s claims by firsthand accounts and direct evidence didn’t stop the mainstream media from running with the fake news. Virtually every mainstream outlet fawned over the nonsense fable in one way or another, and Joe Biden cut an ad using it to attack President Trump. Neither the media nor Biden have apologized or retracted their use of the false narrative… https://t.co/Ad3Obl3lLK

 

The Atlantic Editor in Chief Jeffrey Goldberg Says Anonymous Sourcing Is ‘Not Good Enough’ After Backlash Over Trump Story – “But, you know, like other reporters, I’m always balancing out the moral ambiguities and complications of anonymous sourcing with a public’s right to know.”…

https://amp.dailycaller.com/2020/09/08/the-atlantic-editorial-in-chief-jeffrey-goldberg-anonymous-sourcing-not-good-enough

 

@seanmdav: As the pool report from Sunday makes very clear, Biden never stopped to visit any graves. He walked out of church at 11:22 a.m., his motorcade left at 11:24 a.m., and Biden was home at 11:28 a.m. Why does @TheAtlantic keep fabricating stories? [DJT mocked Biden for visiting his son’s grave.]

https://twitter.com/seanmdav/status/1303365856899084288?s=02

 

CNN airs photo of Biden and son with Washington Redskins logo removed from son’s hat https://fxn.ws/3bD9QSS

 

@TrumpRulzz: On Monday afternoon in Chicago this beautiful 8 yr old was shot in the back as she sat in a family member’s vehicle. She is the SIXTH child under 10 murdered in Chicago since late June! BLM couldn’t care a less! [Same for the MSM and most politicians from both parties]

 

It’s clear Robert Mueller was in no condition to run his investigation — so who did?

Chris Swecker spent 24 years in the FBI. He left the agency in 2006 with the highest respect for his old boss, with whom he had extensive daily contact for more than two years. “Mueller was super sharp,” Swecker remembered.  In fall 2016, working in North Carolina, Swecker invited Mueller to speak at a conference. Mueller flew from Washington, and Swecker met him for breakfast to brief him on the event. He noticed something he had never seen in his old boss. “I remember telling my wife after the breakfast that he’s slipping,” Swecker recalled. “You could tell the acuity was not there. . . . He was a little confused about what to do after he got off.” When Mueller was made special counsel the next year, Swecker wondered whether he was up to it…

https://nypost.com/2020/09/08/its-clear-robert-mueller-was-in-no-condition-to-run-his-investigation-so-who-did/

 

@JamesAGagliano: Served under Bob Mueller for 12 of my 25-year FBI career. Wrote CNN Opinion column about experiences w/him — an honorable, decent public servant. However, witnessing his testimony as Special Counsel in July of 2019 — he was NOT same man w/whom I’d interacted.

 

@CBS_Herridge: [NBC’s Pete Williams] Is John Durham nearing the end of his investigation? William Barr: I– I’m not gonna characterize exactly where he is. I’ll just leave it at that–WILLIAMS: Okay, would you say it’s unlikely that there’ll be further criminal charges? BARR: No, I wouldn’t say that at all, no.

WILLIAMS: So there could be. BARR: Yeah, there could be. WILLIAMS: Will we hear anything about the Durham report before the election?  BARR: Yeah, I’m not gonna get into that either

 

@ChloeSalsameda: Los Angeles County is banning trick-or-treating this Halloween due to COVID-19

 

@latimes: L.A. County walks back Halloween trick-or-treating ban, saying it’s ‘not recommended.’

 

@AngelWarrior321: This is the world you and I really live in. Not the one that’s rolled out every 4 years to further a divisive agenda.  https://twitter.com/AngelWarrior321/status/1303650722827907072

 

 

Well that is all for today

I will see you FRIDAY night.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: