SEPT 14/GOLD DOWN 90 CENTS TO $1954.60 BUT SILVER IS STRONG UP 47 CENTS//STRONG ADVANCE IN GOLD STANDING AT THE COMEX TO 13.045 TONNES//CORONAVIRUS UPDATES: SAT THROUGH MONDAY//CHINA VS USA//JAPAN HAS A NEW PRIME MINSTER, SUGA//

GOLD:$$1954.60  DOWN $0.90   The quote is London spot price

 

 

 

 

 

Silver:$27.14 UP  0.47   London spot price ( cash market)

 

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Closing access prices:  London spot

i)Gold : $1956.80  LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

 

ii)SILVER:  $27.12//LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

CLOSING FUTURES PRICES:  KEY MONTHS

 

 

OCT GOLD:  $1955.50  CLOSE 1.30 PM//   SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE OCT /: $0.90 BACKWARD

 

 

 

DEC. GOLD  $1947.40   CLOSE 1.30 PM      SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE DEC   $9.80/ CONTANGO   ($2.30 ABOVE NORMAL CONTANGO)

 

CLOSING SILVER FUTURE MONTH

 

SILVER SEPT COMEX CLOSE;   $27.30…1:30 PM.//SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE SEPT//  :    ( 14 CENT CONTANGO// 14 CENTS ABOVE NORMAL CONTANGO)

SILVER DECEMBER  CLOSE:     $27.38  1:30  PM SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE DEC.       : 22  CENTS PER OZ  CONTANGO ( 14 CENTS ABOVE NORMAL CONTANGO)

 

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COMEX DATA

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

receiving today: 8/175

 

 

issued:  148

 

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: SEPTEMBER 2020 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,937.800000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 09/11/2020 DELIVERY DATE: 09/15/2020
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 1
624 C BOFA SECURITIES 107
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 48
657 H MORGAN STANLEY 24
661 C JP MORGAN 148 8
732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 6
800 C MAREX SPEC 3
905 C ADM 5
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 175 175
MONTH TO DATE: 4,166

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  SEPT CONTRACT: 175 NOTICE(S) FOR 17,500 OZ  (0.5443 tonnes)

 

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  4166 NOTICES FOR 416,600 OZ  (12.958 tonnes) 

 

 

SILVER

 

 

225 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 1,125,000  OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month: 9332 for 46.660 MILLION oz

 

BITCOIN MORNING QUOTE  $10451  UP 119

 

BITCOIN AFTERNOON QUOTE.: $10,661 UP 328

 

GLD AND SLV INVENTORIES:

WITH GOLD DOWN 90 CENTS AND NO PHYSICAL TO BE FOUND ANYWHERE:

WITH ALL REFINERS CLOSED//MEXICO ORDERING ALL MINES SHUT:   WHERE ARE THEY GETTING THE “PHYSICAL?

SURPRISINGLY WE LOST (WITHDRAWAL) A HUGE 4.96 TONNES FROM THE GLD//

 

 

GLD: 1,248.00 TONNES OF GOLD//

 

 

WITH SILVER UP $0.47  TODAY: AND WITH NO SILVER AROUND:

SURPRISINGLY WE HAD TWO MAJOR WITHDRAWALS: i) 1.675 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV// 4 pm

ii) at 5:22 pm:  .931 million oz//

RESTING SLV INVENTORY TONIGHT:

 

SLV: 555.956  MILLION OZ./

 

 

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Let us have a look at the data for today

 

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IN SILVER THE COMEX OI ROSE BY A TINY 214 CONTRACTS FROM 160,869 UP TO 161,083, AND CLOSER TO OUR NEW RECORD OF 244,710, (FEB 25/2020. THE  GAIN IN OI OCCURRED DESPITE OUR  $0.39 FALL IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. IT SEEMS THAT THE LOSS IN COMEX OI IS  DUE TO ATTEMPTED BANKER  SILVER SHORT COVERING..  COUPLED AGAINST THE WEAKEST EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE EVER RECORDED:  0 EFPs, MINOR  LONG LIQUIDATION, A SMALL DECREASE IN SILVER OZ  STANDING  AT THE COMEX FOR SEPT.  WE HAD A SMALL NET GAIN IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 348 CONTRACTS  (SEE CALCULATIONS BELOW).

 

 

WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD THE WEAKEST EVER  NUMBER OF  COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE:  ZERO, AS WE HAD THE FOLLOWING ISSUANCE:  SEP 0;  DEC:  0, MARCH  0 FOR ZERO ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  0 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 0 CONTRACTS. THE BANKERS ARE NOW BEING BITTEN BY THOSE SERIAL FORWARDS ARE  BEING EXERCISED AND COMING BACK TO NEW YORK TO REDEEM METAL.  OUR BANKERS CAN NO LONGER AFFORD TO ISSUE THESE VEHICLES. THUS THE AMOUNT TRANSFERRED TO LONDON IS 0 MILLION OZ

HISTORY OF SILVER OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR THE PAST 26 MONTHS.

 

 

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

7.32     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

2.630     MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOV.

20.970   MILLION OZ  FINAL STANDING IN DEC

5.075     MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JAN

1.480    MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN FEB

23.005  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAR

4.660  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR APRIL

45.220 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAY

2.205  MILLION OF FINAL STANDING FOR JUNE

86.470 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JULY.

6.475 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN AUGUST

52.0150 MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT

 

FRIDAY, AGAIN OUR CROOKS USED COPIOUS PAPER IN ORDER TO LIQUIDATE SILVER’S PRICE…AND THEY WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL $0.39) ).. AND, OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS  WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE ANY  SILVER LONGS. THE RAIDS THESE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WERE ORCHESTRATED BY THE BIS WITH MEGA ASSISTANCE FROM OUR CRIMINAL BANKERS. THEIR CHIEF AIM WAS TO REMOVE SPECULATORS FROM THEIR LONG POSITIONS.THEY FAILED AGAIN WITH FRIDAY’S TRADING….   WE ALSO HAD  ii)  A ZERO ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS 2) A SMALL LOSS IN SILVER OZ STANDING  FOR SEPTEMBER, 3) SMALL COMEX GAIN AND 4) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION.  YOU CAN BET THE FARM THAT OUR BANKERS  ARE DESPERATE TO LIQUIDATE THEIR HUGE SHORT POSITIONS IN SILVER..

 

 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

SEPT.

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY /FOR MONTH OF SEPT:

6767 CONTRACTS (FOR 9 TRADING DAY(S) TOTAL 6767 CONTRACTS) OR 33.84 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 751 CONTRACTS OR 3.759 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF SEPT: 33.84 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 4.83% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

 

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2020 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          1,419.91 MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2020 EFP TOTALS SO FAR: 181.61 MILLION OZ

FEB 2020 EFP’S TOTAL :  ……     259.600 MILLION OZ

MARCH EFP’S …..                     452.280 MILLION OZ  //TOTALS//AND A NEW RECORD FOR THE MONTH)

APRIL EFP                               95.355 MILLION OZ.  (EX. FOR PHYSICALS BECOMING A LOT LESS)

MAY EFP FINAL:                     77.27 MILLION OZ

JUNE EFP                              71.15 MILLION OZ.

JULY EFP                               133.95 MILLION OZ/ (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS STARTING TO RISE EXPONENTIALLY AGAIN)

AUGUST EFP                         127.46 MILLION OZ (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS STARTING TO DECREASE AGAIN)

SEPT EFP                                33.84 MILLION OZ (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS DRAMATICALLY FALLING OFF A CLIFF)

 

RESULT: WE HAD A TINY SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 214, DESPITE  OUR  $0.39 FALL IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ///FRIDAY.…THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A ZERO SIZED EFP ISSUANCE: YES 0 CONTRACTS  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS.

 

 

TODAY WE GAINED A TINY SIZED 214 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES (DESPITE OUR  $0.39 FALL IN PRICE)//

 

 

THE TALLY//EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

i.e 0 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH A SMALL SIZED INCREASE OF 214 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND HAPPENED WITH OUR 39 CENT FALL IN PRICE OF SILVER/AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $26.67 // FRIDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY. 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 0.804 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 115% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW AUGUST  DELIVERY MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 225 NOTICE(S) FOR 1,125,000 OZ OF SILVER.

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018. AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.70//TODAY’S RECORD OF 244,705 WAS SET WITH A PRICE OF: 18.91 (FEB 25/2020)

 

 

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 10.025 MILLION OZ/ SEPT 43.030 MILLION OZ//OCT: 7.665 MILLION OZ//   NOV: 2.630 MILLION OZ//DEC:  20.970 MILLION OZ; JAN:  5.075 MILLION OZ.//FEB 1.480 MILLION OZ//MAR: 23.005 MILLION OZ/APRIL 4.660 MILLION OZ//MAY  45.220 MILLION OZ//JUNE: 2.205 MILLION OZ// JULY 86.470 million oz//AUGUST 6.475 MILLION OZ//SEPT. 52.015 MILLION OZ//
  2. THE  RECORD PRIOR TO TODAY WAS SET IN FEB 25/2018:  244,710 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $18.90//.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

 

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 

 

GOLD

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 1804 CONTRACTS TO 568,244 AND FURTHER FROM OUR NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE SMALL SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI OCCURRED WITH OUR CONSIDERABLE FALL IN PRICE  OF $14.80 /// COMEX GOLD TRADING// FRIDAY//WE HAD SOME BANKER SHORT COVERING AS WE HAD  A SMALL LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES… VERY FEW HAVE LEFT THE GOLD ARENA.  WE ALSO HAD A GOOD ADVANCE IN TONNAGE STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR SEPTEMBER ACCOMPANYING A SMALL EXCHANGE FOR  PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. THIS ALL HAPPENED WITH OUR  FALL IN PRICE OF $14.80. 

 

 

WE HAD A VOLUME OF 0    4 -GC CONTRACTS//OPEN INTEREST  127//

 

 

WE LOST A SMALL SIZED 996 CONTRACTS  (3.097 TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

 

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A SMALL SIZED 808 CONTRACTS:

CONTRACT . OCT: 0 DEC: 808; FEB: 0  ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO//TOTAL: 808.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 568,244. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EXCHANGE DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 996 CONTRACTS: 1804 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 880 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI LOSS OF 996 CONTRACTS OR 3.097 TONNES.  FRIDAY, WE HAD A LOSS OF $14.80 IN GOLD TRADING..….

AND WITH THAT LOSS IN  PRICE, WE HAD A SMALL SIZED LOSS IN TOTAL/TWO EXCHANGES GOLD TONNAGE OF 3.097 TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE (IT FELL $14.80).  WE HAD A SOME BANKER SHORT COVERING OPERATION . WE ALSO HAD SMALL ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGES FOR PHYSICAL. THE BANKERS COULD HARDLY FLEECE ANY OF OUR SPECULATOR LONGS FROM THEIR POSITIONS

 

 

 

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:

WE HAD A SMALL SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (880) ACCOMPANYING THE SMALL SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI  (1804 OI): TOTAL LOSS IN THE TWO EXCHANGES:  996 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1 ) SOME BANKER SHORT COVERING ,2.)A GOOD ADVANCE IN  STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR THE FRONT SEPT. MONTH,  3) MINOR LONG LIQUIDATION;  4) SMALL COMEX OI LOSS AND 5) SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL  AND  …ALL OF THIS WAS COUPLED WITH OUR LOSS IN GOLD PRICE TRADING//FRIDAY//$14.80.

 

 

WE ARE BEGINNING TO WITNESS A LACK OF EXCHANGE FOR GOLD PHYSICALS UNDERWRITTEN DUE TO PREMIUMS STARTING TO REAPPEAR IN THE FUTURE PRICE OF GOLD VS LONDON SPOT. THE COST TO THE BANKERS IS JUST TOO GREAT TO ENGAGE IN THESE VEHICLES ONCE THIS OCCURS.

THE FACT THAT WE ARE CONTINUALLY SEEING A DROP IN COMEX OPEN INTEREST AND VOLUMES COUPLED WITH LESS EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS PROBABLY MEANS THAT OUR LONGS ARE ALREADY DEPARTING NEW YORK FOR THE NEW PHYSICAL PLATFORM AT LONDON’S LME.

 

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS//OUTLINE

SPREADING OPERATIONS/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD  (WE SWITCH OVER TO SILVER ON OCT  1)

 

 

OUR SPREADING OPERATION HAS NOW SWITCHED INTO GOLD…..

SPREADING OPERATION FOR OUR NEWCOMERS:

 

FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS:

 

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED IN GOLD  AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF OCT.

 

 

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEW, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE SPREADERS AND THE CRIMINAL ELEMENT BEHIND IT:

 HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

 

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR SILVER..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR GOLD.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

 

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

.

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO GOLD AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT. HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT FOR GOLD:

 

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF SEPT. BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN GOLD WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

 

 

 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2020 INCLUDING TODAY

SEPT.

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF SEPT : 13,777, CONTRACTS OR 13,777, oz OR 42.85 TONNES (9 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 1530 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 9 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 42.85 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2019, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 42.85/3550 x 100% TONNES =1.20% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD HAS DISSIPATED THIS MONTHTHE COST TO THE BANKERS TO CARRY THESE CONTRACTS IN LONDON IS BECOMING TOO GREAT FOR THEM.

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2020 TO DATE   3,443.01  TONNES

JANUARY 2220 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE; : 570.19 TONNES

FEB 2020 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE :            653.78 TONNES

MARCH TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE                1,098.93  TONNES  (*AND A NEW ALL TIME RECORD ISSUANCE//22 DAYS)

APRIL TOTAL EFP. ISSUANCE:               243.45  TONNES  (EFP ISSUANCE BECOMING A LOT LESS)

MAY TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                     248.68 TONNES (EFP ISSUANCE STILL LOW// PREMIUM COST TO THE BANKERS IS HUGE..SO ISSUANCE IS LESS)

JUNE TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                     192.06 TONNES

JULY TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;                       313.09 TONNES ..(EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS REVERSE COURSE AND ARE NOW INCREASING!)

AUGUST TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;                 150.78 TONNES  FINAL (AGAIN: RETREATING IN NUMBERS)

SEPT TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                       42.85 TONNES  (AGAIN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL NUMBERS IN FULL RETREAT)

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

 

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 214 CONTRACTS FROM 160,868, UP TO 161,083 AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 3/4 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

THE SMALL SIZED GAIN IN OI SILVER COMEX WAS PRIMARILY DUE TO 1)  MINOR BANKER SHORT COVERING (OR MAYBE ZERO)  , 2) A  STRANGE 0 ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (SEE BELOW), 3) A SMALL LOSS IN OUNCES STANDING FOR SILVER AT THE COMEX FOR SEPT., AND 4) MINOR LONG LIQUIDATION,

 

 

 

 

EFP ISSUANCE 0 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 SEPT: 0 AND DEC. 0 AND MARCH:  0  ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 0 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI GAIN OF 214 CONTRACTS TO THE 0 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A SMALL SIZED GAIN OF 214 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 1.070 MILLION  OZ, OCCURRED WITH OUR 39 CENT LOSS IN PRICE///

 

 

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL..THE EVIDENCE IS CLEAR: HUGE AMOUNTS OF PHYSICAL STANDING FOR BOTH  SILVER AND GOLD .

(report Harvey)

 

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)MONDAY MORNING/ SUNDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 18.47 POINTS OR 0.57%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 136.81 POINTS OR 0.56%   /The Nikkei closed UP 136.97 POINTS OR 0.56%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .66%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.8198 /Oil UP TO 37.20 dollars per barrel for WTI and 39.81 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 6.8198 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.8197 TRADE TALKS STALL////TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED//CORONAVIRUS/PANDEMIC  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

 

 

COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

 

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST  FELL BY BY A SMALL SIZED 1804 CONTRACTS TO 568,578 MOVING CLOSER TO  OUR  RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020).  AND ALL OF THIS SMALL COMEX DECREASE OCCURRED WITH OUR LOSS OF $14.80 IN GOLD PRICING /FRIDAY’S COMEX TRADING/). WE ALSO HAD A TINY EFP ISSUANCE (808 CONTRACTS),.  THUS,  WE HAD  1)  SMALL BANKER SHORT COVERING AS WE HAD A  SMALL LOSS IN THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 996 CONTRACTS,….…. , PLUS WE HAD 2)  MINOR LONG LIQUIDATION  AND 3)  ANOTHER HUGE  INCREASE IN TONNAGE  STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX//SEPT. DELIVERY MONTH (SEE BELOW) …  AS WE ENGINEERED A SMALL SIZED LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 996 CONTRACTS MENTIONED ABOVE.WE HAVE LATELY WITNESSED THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL….. AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. THE COMEX IS THE SCENE FOR AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS EXERCISE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS AND TURN THEM INTO REAL METAL. NO DOUBT THAT THIS IS THE REASON FOR OUR BANKERS TO LIGHTEN UP ON THEIR USE AS OUR LONDON FRIENDS, BY EXERCISING ON THESE COMEX INITIATED VEHICLES, ARE BITING OUR BANKERS BACK AND PUTTING A NOOSE AROUND THEIR NECKS.

 

 

 

(SEE BELOW)

 

 

WE  HAD 0    4 -GC VOLUME//open interest REMAINS AT 127

 

 

 

 

 

 

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A TINY SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 808 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:   OCT: DEC 808; FEB// ’21 0 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 808  CONTRACTS.

YOU WILL FIND THAT WHEN WE HAVE A GOOD PREMIUM IN THE FUTURES/SPOT, THEN THE NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS DECLINE IN NUMBERS.  THE COST IS JUST TOO MUCH FOR THEM TO ISSUE. TODAY THAT PREMIUM WAS SMALL AND THUS A LITTLE MORE THAN USUAL OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WERE ISSUED.

 

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 996 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 808 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A SMALL SIZED 1804 COMEX CONTRACTS.  THE BANKERS ARE NOW LOATHE TO SUPPLY THE SHORT PAPER.  THEY CONTINUE TO ISSUE  SMALLER AMOUNTS OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL AS THE COST ON CARRYING SERIAL FORWARDS IN LONDON IS TOO GREAT FOR THEM. WITH FRIDAY’S TRADING WE HAD SOME BANKER SHORT COVERING,  AS OUR BANKERS HAVE BEEN CAUGHT TERRIBLY OFFSIDE ON THEIR SHORT POSITIONS..AND THUS THE REASON FOR OUR CONSTANT RAIDS, THESE PAST SEVERAL DAYS INCLUDING FRIDAY… AGAIN VERY FEW HAVE LEFT THE GOLD ARENA.   WE HAD A SMALL LOSS IN OI ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. (SEE BELOW)

 

 

 

 

 

THE BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT FELL $14.80).  AND, THEY WERE  SOMEWHAT SUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING SOME LONGS ALONG WITH SOME BANKER SHORT COVERING.  THE TOTAL LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES REGISTERED  3.097 TONNES  WITH THE  FALL IN  PRICE

 

 

NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES :: 996, CONTRACTS OR 99,600 OZ OR 3.097 TONNES.

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT COMMODITY FUTURES OPEN INTEREST SHOULD APPROXIMATE 3% OF TOTAL PRODUCTION.  IN GOLD THE WORLD PRODUCES AROUND 3500 TONNES PER YEAR BUT ONLY 2200 TONNES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE WEST (THUS EXCLUDING RUSSIA, CHINA ETC..WHO KEEP 100% OF THEIR PRODUCTION)

THUS IN GOLD WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:  568,244 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS X 100 OZ PER CONTRACT = 56.82 MILLION OZ/32,150 OZ PER TONNE =  1767 TONNES

THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST REPRESENTS 1767/2200 OR 80.33% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF GOLD.

 

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 197,877 contracts// volume  POOR

 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  218,559 contracts//  volume: poor  //most of our traders have left for London

 

 

SEPT 14 /2020

SEPT. GOLD CONTRACT MONTH

INITIAL STANDING FOR SEPT GOLD

 

 

 

 

 

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
61,826.370 oz oz
Brinks
1.92 tonnes
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz NIL oz

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

126,768.370

OZ

Malca

 

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
175 notice(s)
 17,500 OZ
(.5443 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
28 contracts
(2800 oz)
0.087709 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
4166 notices
416,600 OZ
12.958 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

We had 0 deposit into the dealer

 

 

total deposit: nil oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had 1 deposit into the customer account

i) Into Malca:  126,768.370 oz

 

 

 

total customer deposit:  126,768.370     oz

 

 

we had 1 gold withdrawals from the customer account:

 

i) Out of Brinks:  61,826.370 oz

(1.92 tonnes)

 

 

 

 

 

total withdrawals;  61,823.370    oz

 

 

 

 

 

We had 0  kilobar transactions  +

 

ADJUSTMENTS: 0 //

 

 

The front month of SEPT registered a total of 203 contracts for a LOSS of 161 contracts.  We had 187 notices filed on Friday, so we gained a strong 26 contracts or an additional 2,600 oz will stand for delivery in this non active month of Sept. Remember that we have been adding to our gold deliveries despite the raid these past 6 days.

Oct GAINED A CONSIDERABLE 321  contracts UP to 62,140  ( STRANGELY NOBODY HAS LEFT THE ARENA ON OUR FRONT MONTH OF OCTOBER).  November gained 0 contracts to stand at 77.

The big December contract LOST 2788 contracts DOWN to 421,732 contracts..

 

 

 

 

 

 

We had 175 notices filed today for  17,500 oz

 

FOR THE SEPT 2020 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and  148 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 175 contract(s) of which 0  notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 8 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the SEPT /2020. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (4166) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  SEPT (203 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today (175 x 100 oz per contract) equals 419,400 OZ OR 13.045 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this active month of JUNE

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the SEPT/2020 contract month:

No of notices filed so far (4166, x 100 oz + 203 OI) for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (175) x 100 oz which equals 419,400 oz standing OR 13.045 TONNES in this  active delivery month. This is a HUGE amount for gold standing for a SEPT delivery month (a NON active delivery month).

October, also looks like we are going to have a strong delivery month.

We gained 26 contracts or an additional 2,600 oz will try their luck searching for metal on this side of the pond.

 

 

 

 

 

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:  BRINKS

 

144,088.952 oz NOW PLEDGED  JAN 21.2020/HSBC  5.4807 TONNES

 

42,548.308.00 PLEDGED  APRIL 3/2020: SCOTIA:            1.3234 tonnes

deleted Int. Delaware pledge July 7  (600 tonnes)

261,958.320 oz  (some deleted august 3)         JPM  8.14 TONNES

610,238.285 oz pledged June 12/2020 Brinks/   july 2/july 21               19.017 tonnes

51,084.609 oz Pledged August 21/regular account 1.588 tonnes jpm

total pledged gold:  1,109,918.474 oz                                     34.523 tonnes

 

 

 

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES…. WE HAVE 469.11 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS i.e. 13.045 tonnes

CALCULATION OF REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SETTLED UPON:

total registered or dealer  16,204,020.148 oz or 504.01 tonnes
which  includes the following:
a) pledged gold held at HSBC   which cannot settled upon   144,088.952 oz x ( 4.4817 TONNES)//
b) pledged gold held at JPMorgan (SOME  DELETED JUNE 24 2020/SOME JULY 9; SOME JULY 22/July 03/august 3) which cannot be settled upon:  261,958.320 oz (or 8.14 tonnes)
total pledged gold:
b 2 pledged gold JPMorgan august 21/2020;  51,084,609 oz  (1.588 tonnes)
c)  pledged gold at Scotia: 1.3234 tonnes or 42,548.308 oz which cannot be settled  (1.3234 tonnes)
d) pledged gold at Manfra:  DELETED  MAY 26.2020
e) pledged gold at int.Del.    DELETED:   JULY 7.2020
f) pledged gold at Brinks:  DELETED july 2 and july 21
g) pledged gold at Brinks: 610,238.285 oz added which cannot be settled:  18.980 tonnes
total weight of pledged:  1,109,918.474 oz or 34.523 tonnes
thus:
registered gold that can be used to settle upon:  15,081,999.0  (469,11 tonnes)
true registered gold  (total registered – pledged tonnes  15,081,999.0 (469.311 tonnes)
total eligible gold:  20,390,856.503 oz (634.24 tonnes)

total registered, pledged  and eligible (customer) gold  36,594,876.651 oz 1,138.25 tonnes (INCLUDES 4 GC GOLD)

total 4 GC gold:   126.34 tonnes

total gold net of 4 GC:  1011,91 tonnes

 

end

 

I have compiled  data with respect to registered (or dealer) gold taken on first day notice for each of the past 24 months

The data begins on first day notice for the May month taken on the last day of July 2018. and it continues to present day.

 

I then took, how many deliveries were recorded by the CME for each and every month.  I also included for reference the price of gold on first day notice.

 

The first graph is a logarithmic  graph and the second graph, linear.

You can see the huge explosion of registered gold at the comex along with deliveries.

 

 

THE DATA AND GRAPHS:

 

 

 

THE GOLD COMEX SEEMS TO BE  UNDER SEVERE ASSAULT FOR PHYSICAL

END

SEPT 14/2020

And now for the wild silver comex results

And now for the wild silver comex results

 

INITIAL STANDINGS

SEPT. SILVER COMEX CONTRACT MONTH//INITIAL STANDING

 

Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 1,778,111.810 oz
CNT
Brinks
Scotia

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
482,312.276 oz
Brinks

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
1,760,076.920 oz
CNT
Delaware
JPM
Loomis
No of oz served today (contracts)
225
CONTRACT(S)
(1,125,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
1071 contracts
 5,355,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  9332 contracts

46,0660,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
We had 1 deposit into the dealer:
i) Into Brinks:  482,312.276 oz

total dealer deposits: 482,312.276     oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

 

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

 

we had 4 deposits into the customer account (ELIGIBLE ACCOUNT)

i)into JPMorgan: 602,368.400 oz  (the JPMorgan continues to add silver to its inventory//7TH DAY IN A ROW)

ii) Into CNT: 29,919.170 oz

iii) Into Delaware: 34,851.540 oz

iv) Into Loomis:  5178.735.310 oz

 

 

 

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017, 2018 and onward, has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 175.825 million oz of  total silver inventory or 49.08% of all official comex silver. (175.825 million/358.236 million

 

total customer deposits today:  1,760,076.920   oz

we had 3 withdrawals:

 

i) Out of Brinks:  1044,328.970 oz

ii) Out of CNT:  129,865.490 oz

iii) Out of Scotia:  601,917.250 oz

 

 

 

 

total withdrawals;  1778,111.710    oz

We had 0 adjustments/

 

 

 

Total dealer(registered) silver: 139.189 million oz

total registered and eligible silver:  358.236 million oz

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

the front month of SEPTEMBER registered an open interest of 1296 contracts thus losing 20 contracts.  We had 3 notices filed on FRIDAY so we LOST 17 contracts or an additional 85,000 oz will NOT stand in this active delivery month of September  as they  morphed into London based forwards and thus they must have accepted a doozy of a fiat bonus.  Our London boys are ready to exercise these EFP’s and they will turn them into real physical metal as we now have a full frontal attack on both of our two precious metals.

 

Oct saw another LOSS of 2 contracts to stand at 1282.November lost 1 contract to stand at 13,

The big December contract month saw its OI GAIN by 116 contracts up to 139,806

 

 

The total number of notices filed today for the SEPT 2020. contract month is represented by 225 contract(s) FOR 1,125,000, oz

 

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in SEPT we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 9332 x 5,000 oz = 46,660,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of SEPT(1296) and the number of notices served upon today 225 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

 

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the SEPT/2019 contract month: 9332 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of SEPT  (1296)- number of notices served upon today (225) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the SEPT contract month.equals 52,015,000 oz. ..VERY STRONG FOR AN ACTIVE MONTH.

We lost 17 contracts or AN ADDITIONAL 85,000 oz. WILL not STAND FOR DELIVERY IN THIS ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH, AS THEY LOOK FOR METAL ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE POND!

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME : 51,398 CONTRACTS // volume poor//

 

 

 

 

 

FOR YESTERDAY   64.347.  ,CONFIRMED VOLUME// fair

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 64,347 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 0.321 billion  OZ 45.3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

 

NPV for Sprott

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV  RISES TO- 2.20% ((SEPT 14/2020)

2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV  FALLS TO -0.78% to NAV:   (SEPT 14/2020 )

Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/2.20%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA

3. SPROTT CEF .A   FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 20.57 TRADING 20.15///NEGATIVE 2.05

END

 

 

 

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

SEPT 14/WITH GOLD  DOWN 90 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.96 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1248.00 TONNES

SEPT 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.80//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1252.96 TONNES

SEPT 10/WITH GOLD UP $8.85 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.92 TONNES INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1252.96 TONNES

SEPT 9/WITH GOLD UP $19.55 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1250.04 TONNES

SEPT 8/WITH GOLD UP $8.20 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1250.04 TONNES

SEPT 4//WITH GOLD DOWN $3.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1250.04 TONNES

SEPT 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.50 ON THIS 2ND DAY OF A 3 DAY RAID:  NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1250.04 TONNES

SEPT 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $34.00 TODAY, WE HAVE 2 SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: 2 WITHDRAWALS OF .87 TONNES AND.59 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1250.04 TONNES

SEPT 1/WITH GOLD UP $7.10 TODAY, WE HAVE NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1251.50 TONNES

AUGUST 31//WITH GOLD UP $5.90 TODAY/WE HAD NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1251.50 TONNES/

AUGUST 28/WITH GOLD UP $38.20 TODAY, WE SURPRISINGLY HAD A .59 TONNE WITHDRAWAL//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1251.50 TONNES

AUGUST 27/WITH GOLD DOWN 17.50 TODAY: WE HAD A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A DEPOSIT OF 3.24 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY REST AT 1252.09 TONNES

AUGUST 26/WITH GOLD UP $26.70  TODAY/  WE  HAD A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.53 TONNES FROM THE GLD//RESTS AT 1248.85 TONNES

AUGUST 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.60 TODAY, WE  HAD NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//RESTS AT 1252.38 TONNES

AUGUST 24//WITH GOLD DOWN $7.20 TODAY: WE HAD NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: /INVENTORY RESTS AT 1258.38 TONNES

AUGUST 21//WITH GOLD DOWN $.40 TODAY: WE HAD NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: /INVENTORY RESTS AT 1252.38 TONNES

AUGUST 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $23.45 TODAY: WE HAD NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: .//INVENTORY REST AT  1252.38 TONNES

AUGUST 19//WITH GOLD DOWN $39.65 TODAY: WE HAD NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1252.38 TONNES

AUGUST 18/WITH GOLD UP $14.60 TODAY: WE HAD A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 4.09 TONNES//GLD INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 1252.38 TONNES

AUGUST 17/WITH GOLD UP $46.30  TODAY:  SURPRISINGLY WE HAD A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A WITHDRAWAL  OF 3.8 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1248.29 TONNES

AUGUST 14/ WITH GOLD DOWN $19.45 TODAY: SURPRISINGLY, WE HAD A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A DEPOSIT OF 1.46 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1252.63 TONNES.

AUGUST 13/WITH GOLD UP $23.15 TODAY: WE HAD A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: SURPRISINGLY A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 7.30 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1250.63 TONNES

AUGUST 12/ WITH GOLD UP $1.00 TODAY: WE HAD A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.19 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1257.93 TONNES

AUGUST 11//WITH GOLD DOWN $92.40 TODAY, WE HAD NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1262.12 TONNES.

AUGUST 10/WITH GOLD UP $11.35  TODAY, WE HAD A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.84 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1262.12 TONNES

AUGUST 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $38.30 TODAY, WE HAVE NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1267.96 TONNES

AUGUST 6/WITH GOLD UP $20.45 TODAY, WE HAVE ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 10.23 TONNES INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1267.96  TONNES//

AUGUST 5/WITH GOLD UP $ 33.75 TODAY, WE HAVE A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/A DEPOSIT OF 9.35 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1257.73 TONNES

AUGUST 4//WITH GOLD UP $31.75 TODAY, WE HAVE A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A DEPOSIT OF 6.48 TONNES/GLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 1248.38 TONNES

AUGUST 3/WITH GOLD UP $2.20 TODAY, WE HAVE NO CHANGES IN THE GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1241,96 TONNES

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

Inventory rests tonight at

SEPT 14/ GLD INVENTORY 1248.00 tonnes*

LAST;  900 TRADING DAYS:   +308.50 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN ADDED THE GLD

 

LAST 800 TRADING DAYS://+487.03  TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

 

end

 

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

SEPT 14/WITH SILVER UP 47 CENTS TODAY:  HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: 2 WITHDRAWALS A) 1.675 MILLION OZ AND ANOTHER B) 0.931 MILLION OZ/ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 555.956 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 39 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 558.562 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 10/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.607 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 558.562 MILLION OZ.

SEPT 9/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: STRANGE: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.63 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 561.169 MILLION OZ

SEPT 8/WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 564.799 MILLION OZ

SEPT 4//WITH SILVER DOWN 15  CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 3.631 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 564.799 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 3//WITH SILVER DOWN 50 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.258 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 568.430 MILLION OZ/./

SEPT 2.WITH SILVER DOWN $1.04 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.365 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY REST AT 571.688 MILLION OZ.

SEPT 1//WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 574.053 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 31/WITH SILVER UP 80 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN THE SLV//A DEPOSIT OF 2.982 MILLION OZ ENTERS THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 574.053 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 28/WITH SILVER UP 48 CENTS TODAY: A MASSIVE PAPER DEPOSIT OF 4.652 MILLION OZ ENTERS THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 571.071 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 28 CENTS  TODAY// NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 566.419 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 26//WITH SILVER UP $1.04 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.65 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 566.419 MILLION OZ..

AUGUST 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.607 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 571.074 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 24//WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS TODAY: WE HAD A NO CHANGES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 573.843  MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 21//WITH SILVER DOWN 30 CENTS TODAY: WE HAD A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A DEPOSIT OF.838 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 573.843 MILLION OZ..

AUGUST 20/WITH SILVER DOWN $.26 TODAY: WE HAD A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.724 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV..//INVENTORY REST AT 572.843 MILLION  OZ

AUGUST 18/WITH SILVER UP $.44 TODAY: WE HAD A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A DEPOSIT OF 2.514 MILLION OZ//THE SLV INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 576.567 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 17/WITH SILVER  UP $1.27 TODAY: WE HAD NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: //INVENTORY RESTS AT 574.053 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 14/WITH SILVER DOWN  $1.31 TODAY, WE HAD A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.984 MILLION OZ// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 574.053 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 13//WITH SILVER UP $1.76  TODAY: WE HAVE TWO HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.421  MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV AT 2 PM AND ANOTHER DEPOSIT OF 6.984 MILLION OZ AT 5 20 PM/INVENTORY RESTS AT 581.037 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 40 CENTS TODAY: WE HAVE ANOTHER CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A WITHDRAWAL OF XX MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT XX MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 11/WITH SILVER DOWN $3.25 CENTS, WE HAVE ANOTHER CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A DEPOSIT OF 2.41 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 571.632 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 10/WITH SILVER UP 1.89 TODAY, WE HAVE ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.538 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 569.491  MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 69 CENTS TODAY: WE HAVE ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 0.465 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 573.029 MILLION OZ.

AUGUST 6/WITH SILVER UP $1.52 TODAY, WE HAVE NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 572.564 MILLION OZ///

AUGUST 5/WITH SILVER UP $1.03 TODAY, WE HAVE A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A MONSTROUS DEPOSIT OF 5.403 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 572.564 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 4/WITH SILVER UP $1.45 TODAY, WE HAVE NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: //INVENTORY RESTS AT 367.161 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 3/WITH SILVER UP 23 CENTS TODAY: WE HAVE A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//SURPRISINGLY ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 0.931 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 367.161 MILLION OZ//

 

SEPT 14.2020:

SLV INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT

555.956 MILLION OZ

 

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

 

 

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

Jan discusses the silver institutes supply and demand data and claims that it is very misleading

(Jan Nieuwenhuijs?GATA)

Jan Nieuwenhuijs: Silver Institute’s supply and demand data is misleading

 Section: 

By Jan Nieuwenhuijs
Voima Gold, Helsinki
Saturday, September 12, 2020

Every year the Silver Institute publishes silver supply and demand numbers that suggest the market is in a deficit or surplus, although there is no correlation between their “market balance” and the price of silver. Investment decisions based on the Silver Institute’s supply and demand data can turn out badly.

In a previous article we have discussed that gold trades more like a currency than a commodity. An approach of a gold market balance, which produces a surplus or deficit, is therefore not appropriate nor indicative of price direction. Because silver is both a monetary metal and an industrial commodity its supply and demand dynamics require special attention. My conclusion is that silver, just like gold, trades more like a currency than a commodity. …

… For the remainder of the analysis:

https://www.voimagold.com/insight/warning-misleading-silver-supply-and-d…

END

Alasdair Macleod: Inflation, deflation, and other fallacies

 Section: 

By Alasdair Macleod
GoldMoney, St. Helier, Jersey, Channel Islands
Thursday, September 10, 2020

There can be little doubt that macroeconomic policies are failing around the world. The fallacies being exposed are so entrenched that there are bound to be twists and turns yet to come.

This article explains the fallacies behind inflation, deflation, economic performance, and interest rates. They arise from the modern states’ overriding determination to access the wealth of its electorate instead of being driven by a genuine and considered concern for its welfare. Monetary inflation, which has become runaway, transfers wealth to the state from producers and consumers, and is about to accelerate. Everything about macroeconomics is now with that single economically destructive objective in mind.

..Falling prices, the outcome of commercial competition, and sound money are more aligned with the interests of ordinary people, but that is so derided by neo-Keynesians that today almost without exception everyone believes in inflationism.

 

And finally, we conclude that the escape from failing fiat will lead to rising nominal interest rates, with all the consequences which that entails. The inevitable outcome is a flight to commodities, including gold and silver, despite rising interest rates for fiat money. …

… For the remainder of the analysis:

https://www.goldmoney.com/research/goldmoney-insights/inflation-deflatio…

 

END

* * *

iii) Other physical stories:

Jay Johnson’s Commodity Report

 

 

https://www.jsmineset.com/2020/09/14/triple-witch-week-and-the-continuing-story-of-the-us-dollar-anomaly/

 

Triple Witch Week and The Continuing Story of The US Dollar Anomaly

 

Posted September 14th, 2020 at 9:20 AM (CST) by J. Johnson & filed under General Editorial.

 

Great and Wonderful Monday Morning Folks,

 

The Triple Witch is here with Gold trading $2.10 higher at $1,950 after reaching as high at $1,960.50 with the low at $1,945.20. Silver is still holding onto most of its Sunday Night gains with the trade at $27.025 up 16.8 cents with the high at $27.15 and the low at $26.85. The US Dollar is still doing its “thing” on the last trading day of the September contract with the value now pegged at 93.01, down 31 points, oops, now down 2 points at 93.32 with the low at 92.99. Of course, all this happened already, before 5 am pst, the Comex open, the London close, and after Terry Branstad suddenly quits being US Ambassador to Beijing. Could there be something else going on with his 35-year, long-term relationship with China?

 

Gold under the Venezuelan Bolivar is now trading at 19,475.63 showing a 39.95 Bolivar reduction over the weekend with Silver at 269.912 Bolivar providing a gain of 0.349. Argentina’s Peso price for Gold is now calculated at 145,933.41 showing a 176.37 A-Peso pullback with Silver now priced at 2,022.58, gaining 4.41 A-Peso’s. The Turkish Lira, the last currency to lower itself against the first money of man, now has Gold’s trade at 14,612.36 Lira providing the only increase in the emerging markets, with a gain of 14.08 over the weekend with Silver at 202.338, it too gaining 0.70 of a T-Lira.

 

September Silver’s Delivery Requests now shows a demand count of 1,296 fully paid for 5,000-ounce contracts waiting for receipts and with a Volume of 2 already up on the board with 2 prices; one at $26.92, the other at $26.91 with the last buy at the high proving a gain of 18.1 cents so far today. Friday’s full day of deliveries happened in between $27.095 and $26.98 with the last buy at $17.02 yet the Comex Calculated Closing price was decided upon down at $26.739, reducing the value of Silver by 42.4 cents as a total of 198 purchases occurred, reducing the receipt requests by only 20 contracts. So far this morning, we see an additional gain of 41 short contracts going against the physicals, bringing the total to 161,218 in Open Interest which proves the seriousness of it all, as those that normally would be applying more Open Interest, can’t or won’t. Maybe they’re saving themselves for the Thursday norm.

 

September Gold’s Delivery Demands now shows a post of 203 fully paid for 100-ounce contracts waiting for receipts and with a Volume of 12 up on the board with a trading range between $1,946.50 and $1943, with the last trade at the low, up $5.20. Friday’s activity in deliveries happened in between $1,949.50 and $1,939.80 with the last buy at $1,938.70, showing a loss of $16.40 and as 73 contracts were swapping hands reducing the demands by 161 contracts that got receipts, and just before the starting of this week. Gold’s early morning count in the Overall Open Interest lost 1,926 short contracts from Friday’s count bringing the shorts against the physicals to 568,578 in Open Interest.

 

The US Dollar anomaly continues. Friday’s activities offered a guaranteed fill at 93.32, no matter if the market traded higher or lower.

Today it appears nothing has changed at all, as the special treatment continues.

 

This stinks to high heaven as this morning’s total Open Interest in September US Dollar’s is still at 7,485 contracts (that will be settled in cash today) with a Volume of 2,782 already posted, which tells me that all these contracts got some sort of special treatment, and as it appears to be totally ignored or not talked about by the financial media representatives that tell us “news”. December’s US Dollar’s Open Interest is already at 23,818 and its Volume is 13,262, so why is there so much value swing in the minute chart and for an entire week and why is the same 1-minute swings happening in December as well? Ain’t that special?

 

 

 

Going back the entire year, we witnessed the last Sept Treasuries go nuts, then last April we witnessed Crude Oil going negative $40. Then Gold made a new life of contract high in August, and now a cash settled US Dollar market goes guaranteed. What is this we are seeing here? International intrigue yes, but who benefited and who didn’t, and why is Silver and Gold not really taking off yet? The answers will all be out in the not too distant future as we enter into the biggest game of all; an election that will give us either Freedom or Fascism.

 

So, keep you metals close, with a prayer for all and a song in the heart. There is no better place in the world to be, than right here and right now and with Silver and Gold in hand! Stay close and …

 

Stay Strong!

Jeremiah Johnson

JeremiahJohnson@cableone.net

More J.Johnson content is available with purchase of a JSMineset subscription.

end

Bill Holter:

 

 

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early MONDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 6.8197/ 

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.8196   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 18.67 POINTS OR 0.57%

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 136.97 POINTS OR 0.56%

 

2. Nikkei closed UP 155.81 POINTS OR 0.65%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL MIXED/

 

 

 

USA dollar index DOWN TO 9.303/Euro FALLS TO 1.1219

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. +.02/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 105.98/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 37.20 and Brent: 39.81

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE UP/OFF- SHORE: UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO -.48%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 0.96% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.29%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.44: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 1.08

3k Gold at $1948.75 silver at: 26.96   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 46/100 in roubles/dollar) 75.36

3m oil into the 37 dollar handle for WTI and 39 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 105.98 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9072 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.068 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to 0.48%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 0.673% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 1.422%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 7.4935..

Futures Surge On Monday Merger Mania, Fresh Vaccine Hopes

U.S. stock index futures jumped 1.3% on Monday amid fresh progress in COVID-19 vaccine development and a triumphal return of “Merger Monday” thanks to a flurry of multi-billion dollar deals.

Oracle soared as much as 11% leading gains among the S&P 500 constituents, after emerging as the winner in negotiations to take over the US operations of ByteDance’s TikTok app. As reported last night, the deal specifics are still evolving, with the final option likely to be something closer to a corporate restructuring with Oracle taking a stake in a newly formed U.S. business. While the structure seems to be devised in order to meet recently tightened Chinese oversight rules, Bloomberg notes that it is not clear whether it would pass muster with the Trump administration, which has set tomorrow as the deadline for the sale or shutdown of TikTok’s American operation. For now however, investors are happy, even if it remains unclear just how the two seemingly disparate companies will synergize. A Microsoft-led consortium that included Walmart was also in talks for TikTok’s U.S. business. Their shares fell marginally.

There were more deals to spark market euphoria, key among them the sale of SoftBank’s UK-based chip division Arm to Nvidia for $40 billion in the semiconductor industry’s largest-ever deal. SoftBank will also raise 1.2 trillion yen ($10.4 billion) from selling about a third of its domestic wireless arm. Nvidia added 6.6% on the news, while SoftBank surged 9% boosted also by weekend speculation it was considering a going private deal (which however is very unlikely to happen for the $125 billion company).

Separately, Gilead – whose stock prices has benefited from the recent covid vaccine rally – agreed to acquire Immunomedics, the maker of a promising breast-cancer therapy, for about $21 billion, or $88 a share, more than double Friday’s closing price. Meanwhile, in what could be a groundbreaking development and the biggest merger deal in banking since the financial crisis, the Swiss blog Inside Paradeplatz reported that UBS and Credit Suisse are exploring a potential combination.

Global equities also got a lift on Monday after drugmaker AstraZeneca resumed its British clinical trials of its COVID-19 vaccine, one of the most advanced in development. Pfizer also rose 1.8% after the drugmaker and German biotech firm BioNTech SE proposed expansion of their Phase 3 pivotal COVID-19 vaccine trial to about 44,000 participants. Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla said it’s “likely” the U.S. will deploy a Covid-19 vaccine to the public before year-end.

In European trading, Airline and retail shares advanced in European trading. However, the Stoxx Europe 600 Price Index trimmed and earlier increase of as much as 0.8% to fall 0.1% as energy shares lead losses among sectors, with sub-index down 0.5% and tracking drop for crude. Brent futures slid -1% to $39.45/barrel, while WTI was down -1.1% to $36.94/barrel.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks also gained, led by materials and IT, after rising in the last session. Most markets in the region were up, with Jakarta Composite gaining 2.9% and South Korea’s Kospi Index rising 1.3%, while Thailand’s SET dropped 0.4%. The Topix gained 0.9%, with Fukushima Bank and Freebit rising the most. SoftBank Group surged after Nvidia agreed to buy the firm’s chip division Arm Ltd. for $40 billion. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.6%, with Xi’an Bright Laser and Zhejiang Orient posting the biggest advances.

Global stocks are coming off the back of the first consecutive weeks of declines since March and traders remain on edge given the recent reassessment of valuations and volatility in options markets, however late last week, analysts at Goldman, JPMorgan and Deutsche Bank all suggested the recent pullback in the U.S. is nearing an end. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its dovish stance on policy as investors look for signs the global economy is recovering from the pandemic.

“With such a powerful monetary impulse coursing through the US and European economy, the odds are that the market will be surprised again positively” in the fourth quarter, said Sebastien Galy, senior strategist at Nordea Investment Funds. “The conclusion is that we should remain in a buy on dip market.”

Because, of course.

In rates, Treasuries edged lower in U.S. trading to start week that brings 20-year reopening Tuesday, FOMC decision Wednesday and 10-year TIPS reopening Thursday. Yields remain within 1bp-2bp of Friday’s closing levels, with 10-year yield at 0.67%; 20-year lags ahead of $22b reopening. The US 10Y trails most other developed bond markets led byeuro-zone peripherals, which received favorable strategist calls. Trader focus remains on the FOMC meeting for the possibility of inflation-outcome-based guidance and changes to size or distribution of Fed’s Treasury purchases; however, most strategists expect neither this week.

In FX, the dollar weakened against most G-10 peers again amid the recovery in risk sentiment; the euro advanced a fourth consecutive day against the greenback pushing European stocks lower while the region’s bond curves bull flattened, with the periphery outperforming the core.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 1.2% to 3,362.25
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.2% to 368.64
  • MXAP up 0.9% to 172.61
  • MXAPJ up 0.8% to 565.68
  • Nikkei up 0.7% to 23,559.30
  • Topix up 0.9% to 1,651.10
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.6% to 24,640.28
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.6% to 3,278.81
  • Sensex up 0.04% to 38,870.26
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.7% to 5,899.52
  • Kospi up 1.3% to 2,427.91
  • Brent futures down 0.9% to $39.47/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.2% to $1,944.33
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.3% to 93.06
  • German 10Y yield fell 1.4 bps to -0.495%
  • Euro up 0.2% to $1.1868
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 2.7 bps to 0.856%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 2.4 bps to 0.285%

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • Hedge funds raised their long bets on the pound to the highest in over five months just before talks between the U.K. and European Union took a turn for the worse
  • The U.K. is on course for more than twice as many job losses in the coming months than in the recession following the financial crisis, underscoring the bleak outlook for the labor market
  • The French government will raise its economic outlook for this year after consumer spending rebounded more strongly than expected once the lockdown aimed at containing the spread of the coronavirus ended
  • The European Union’s executive will unveil an ambitious emissions-cut plan this week that’ll leave no sector of the economy untouched, forcing wholesale lifestyle changes and stricter standards for industries
  • Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga was elected leader of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party by an overwhelming majority, ushering in the country’s first change of prime minister in almost eight years
  • The chairmen of UBS Group AG and Credit Suisse Group AG are exploring a potential merger to create one of Europe’s largest banks, Inside Paradeplatz reported, citing unidentified people inside the two lenders

Quick stroll across global markets courtesy of RanSquawk

Asian equity markets were positive across the board and US equity futures also began the week on the front foot as sentiment was underpinned by vaccine hopes amid reports that AstraZeneca resumed its vaccine trials and with M&A news also contributing to the constructive risk tone, after SoftBank confirmed it will sell its Arm unit to Nvidia, and ByteDance reportedly picked Oracle as the winning bidder for its TikTok operations in US. ASX 200 (+0.7%) was led higher by strength in commodity names although gains were capped by resistance in the index near around the 5900 level and underperformance seen in tech and financials, with the latter dragged amid losses in Macquarie Group after it flagged a 35% Y/Y decline to H1 2021 results. Nikkei 225 (+0.7%) was also positive ahead of today’s LDP leadership vote in which Abe loyalist and current Chief Cabinet Secretary Suga is widely seen as the front runner to succeed PM Abe with around 70% of LDP’s Diet members expected to support his bid to become the party leader. Furthermore, SoftBank shares surged around 9% after confirmation to sell its Arm Holdings unit for USD 40bln which would be the largest ever semiconductor deal and reports also noted executives revived discussions regarding taking SoftBank private following its recent asset disposals, while KOSPI (+1.3%) was among the biggest gainers as index heavyweight Samsung Electronics benefitted on news it outbid TSMC to win a KRW 1tln order from Qualcomm. Hang Seng (+0.6%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.6%) also conformed to the broad constructive risk tone amid the TikTok related developments and as participants digested the latest lending data in which both New Yuan Loans and Aggregate Financing topped forecasts. Finally, 10yr JGBs were marginally higher following a recent break above the 152.00 resistance level but with gains limited by the broad positive risk tone and a tepid BoJ Rinban announcement valued at a total JPY 150bln.

Top Asian News

  • Philippines Boost Central Bank’s Loans Cap to Government by 50%
  • Thai Airways Gets Nod for $11 Billion Debt Rescue Plan
  • Alibaba Is Said to Be in Talks to Invest $3 Billion in Grab
  • Condo Butler Service Demand in China Sparks 400% Stock Gain

A relatively tame start to the week in terms of fresh fundamental catalysts for Europe, albeit the initial upside seen across cash and futures at the open fizzled out (Euro Stoxx -0.1%) as the region failed to coat-tail on gains seen during APAC hours ahead of a risk-packed week which includes the FOMC policy decision, the US-Sino spat over TikTok’s US assets and Quad witching. Sectors in Europe are now mixed, with Travel & Leisure leading the gains whilst Banks and Health Care resides on the other side of the spectrum, as the former is weighed on by a lower yield environment and the latter shrugged off AstraZeneca’s (-0.3%) COVID-19 vaccine trial resumption with Oxford University, but note US President Trump tweeted that he has signed a new executive order to lower drug prices. The IT sector meanwhile remains underpinned by NVIDIA’s USD 40bln deal to acquire Softbank’s Arms Holdings – touted to be the largest semiconductor deal. In terms of individual movers, LSE (-0.8%) is softer despite a myriad of bids for its Borsa Italiana unit ahead of its Refinitiv takeover, including from the likes of CDP/Euronext (-2.6%), Deutsche Boerse (-0.9%) and SIX, with the latter reportedly making the highest offer. Sticking with M&A, Metro AG (+7%) share are bolstered by reports that EP Global Commerce is launching a takeover offer for shares in Co. with the aim of raising investments to above 30%. EP is expected to offer EUR 8.48/ordinary share and EUR 8.87/preference share – Metro board strongly believes the offer substantially undervalues the Co. Elsewhere, Dassault Aviation (+9.6%) is supported by a deal with Greece for 18 Rafales fighter jets – but the terms of the deal were undisclosed. Finally, H&M (-3.2%) is pressured by a broker downgrade at Morgan Stanley.

Top European News

  • U.K. Sets New Cap on Social Gatherings as Virus Cases Spike
  • Putin Resolves to Back Belarus Ally, Wary of Protest Spread
  • Czech Billionaire Seeks More Control Over Metro AG in Second Try
  • Air France’s Survival ‘Guaranteed’ by French After Dutch Warning

In FX, the latest COVID-19 developments have boosted the Kiwi across the board as NZ PM Adern pre-announced a downgrade in nationwide restrictions to Level 1 starting next Monday, while Auckland will remain level 2 for a further week pending another review of the situation. Nzd/Usd is back up near 0.6700 in response, while the Aud/Nzd cross has retreated sharply from around 1.0925 towards 1.0865 as the Aussie remains capped ahead of 0.7300 vs its US counterpart awaiting RBA minutes and Q2 house prices overnight. Note, Aud/Usd appears reluctant to track YUAN gains off a modestly firmer PBoC Cny midpoint fix and in wake of better than expected Chinese new loan and aggregate financing data, perhaps due to ongoing concerns about the fraught relationship between the 2 countries. Elsewhere, some respite for Sterling after last week’s significant underperformance as Cable reclaims 1.2800+ status following a shallower pull-back and Eur/Gbp retreats through 0.9250 awaiting more reverberations from the IMB that is scheduled to be presented to Parliament today. Note, some market observers and a Newsquawk contact are pointing to several key levels in Cable just under last Friday’s base including the 50 DMA, 100 WMA and 200 DMA at 1.2761, 1.2749 and 1.2735 respectively, while rebounds may struggle beyond 1.2900 barring a major U-turn on the Internal Market Bill or breakthrough on Brexit trade talks given the 200 WMA at 1.2932. In Scandinavia, mildly contrasting performances with the Norwegian Crown holding above 10.7000 against the Euro even though oil prices are flagging again, but the Swedish Krona struggling to stay afloat within a 10.4030-10.3750 range amidst deteriorating risk sentiment.

  • JPY/EUR/CHF/DXY – All moderately firmer vs the Dollar that has failed to sustain its post-US CPI momentum, albeit in part due to relative strength elsewhere, as the index meanders between 93.328-048 parameters. The Yen has clawed back a bit more lost ground to test 106.00+ levels after the LDP win for Abe advocate Suga, while the Euro has bounced off a firmer base to pivot 1.1850 in advance of more commentary from the ECB and the Franc is hovering just over 0.9100 following the latest rise in weekly Swiss sight deposits.
  • CAD/EM – The Loonie is somewhat lethargic and straddling 1.3170 against its US peers against the backdrop of weakness in crude, but holding up better than the Rouble that is trying to contain losses under 75.0000 alongside Brent beneath the psychological Usd 40/brl mark. However, the Lira is arguably showing more resilience just off 7.5000 on the back of Moody’s Turkish ratings downgrade and the stand-off with Greece, but doubtless with help coming via state bank support.

In commodities, WTI and Brent front month futures continue to edge lower in early European trade, despite a lack of fundamental newsflow and against the backdrop of a softer USD. A busy week for the complex with highlights including the OPEC Monthly Oil Market report today (12:40BST/07:40ET), tomorrow IEA report, and the JMMC meeting on the 17th – with prior reports noting that delegates are concerned over the recent slide in energy prices, although Saudi sources reaffirmed the commitment to the pact and downplayed deeper production cuts last week. Meanwhile, desks continued to point to a less-rosier than expected demand outlook reflected by a number of producers cutting their OSPs, “Although this shouldn’t come as too much of a surprise given the weakness that we have seen in refinery margins”, ING writes. On the refinery front, eyes have turned back to the Gulf of Mexico where Tropical Storm Sally is expected to strengthen to a hurricane later today. Participants will be keeping an eye on production shut-ins and refining activity, with the latter particularly vulnerable to flooding, and with the Gulf Coast account for just under 54% of US capacity. Sticking with supply-side, Libya’s National Army (the group that imposed an 8-month blockade), has promised to reopen Libya’s energy shipments after talks with other Libyan group and the US embassy in Tripoli, according to a statement on Saturday. WTI has dipped below the USD 37/bbl level (vs. high 37.68/bbl), while its Brent counterpart surrendered its USD 40/bbl handle to print a base under USD 39.50/bbl. Elsewhere, spot gold and silver eke mild gains, largely as a function of the softer USD and heading into this week’s risk events. The yellow metal meanders sub-1950/oz having had tested the level in APAC trade, whilst spot silver fails to reclaim a USD 27/oz+ status. Over to base metals, Dalian iron ore gained over 2% overnight as a steady rise in iron ore stockpiles added to the firmer demand narrative from China, whilst Shanghai copper held onto gains of some 1% amid the broader gains in Chinese markets.

US Event Calendar

  • Nothing major scheduled

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

I hope you had a good weekend. I hardly stopped. We went Shetland Pony riding ahead of my daughter’s 5th birthday tomorrow, I finished a thoroughly disappointing 48th out of 78th in my golf club’s main Championship event, and I have picked up my first cold since lockdown thanks to our germ carrier children being at school now. I thought there was a good chance that as people have been socially distancing for months that colds and flu would be less prevalent this winter. In fact I think Australia had very low cases of flu in their winter just passed. However the fact that I’m incredibly bunged up suggests otherwise. Thankfully there are no more specific covid symptoms. A loss of taste would have been very annoying given the birthday cake.

A reminder that we published our annual long-term study last week. This year’s is entitled “The Age of Disorder” (link here) and suggests that the 40-year globalisation era is now over and will be replaced with this new one characterised by disorder. The 8 page executive summary contains all you want to know but there is more in-depth analysis if that whets your appetite. We also published our latest credit forecasts last week into year-end ( link here ). After being bullish for Q3 at our half year outlook we’ve decided to reverse that and now expect mild spread widening.

In terms of the weekend news, the main coronavirus development is that the AstraZeneca-Oxford vaccine trials have resumed following last week’s pause as a medical issue from one of the trial recipients was investigated. The pause didn’t have as much of a negative impact on the market as I expected so this probably won’t have too much impact either, but it’s clearly encouraging news given they’re one of the front runners. Elsewhere Pfizer’s CEO said yesterday that he expects the US to deploy a vaccine to the public before year-end, even if the FDA were a bit hawkish last week.

On the coronavirus, there have been increasing signs of a resurgence of cases in Europe, with France reporting 7,183 new coronavirus cases yesterday after more than 10,000 a day earlier, which was the most since a national lockdown ended in May. Meanwhile, Germany’s reproduction rate of the virus has moved up to 1.15, the Robert Koch Institute said yesterday. And here in the UK, over 3,000 cases have been reported over the last 3 days, which is the first time that’s happened since May. In Asia however, South Korea is relaxing its social distancing rules as the second wave shows sign of abating, with distancing requirements for the Seoul metropolitan area being lowered to level 2 from level 2.5 for two weeks.

Asian markets have started the week on the front foot with the vaccine news mentioned above supporting sentiment. The Nikkei (+0.64%). Hang Seng (+0.67%), Shanghai Comp (+0.56%) and Kospi (+1.10%) are all up, while future on the S&P 500 also up +1.20%. In other news, China banned pork imports from Germany on Saturday, which comes just two days before Chinese President Xi is scheduled to discuss trade issues in a video meeting with German Chancellor Merkel, as well as European Commission President Von der Leyen and Council President Michel.

Starting with the FOMC meeting on Wednesday, this is the first monetary policy decision since the virtual Jackson Hole symposium, at which it was announced that the committee’s longer-run goals and monetary policy strategy would be updated. In terms of the major changes, the Fed now “seeks to achieve inflation that averages 2 percent over time”, which would allow inflation to overshoot the target following a period of undershooting. It also changed the wording around its maximum employment objective, now saying that policy will be informed by its “assessments of the shortfalls of employment from its maximum level.” According to our US economists (see their preview here), the release opened the door to adjustments in forward guidance and asset purchases at this meeting, though in a close call, they expect the Fed’s forward guidance on interest rates to remain unchanged and for the Committee to reframe their asset purchases as being focused on providing accommodation, not aiding market functioning. This meeting will also see the release of a new Summary of Economic Projections, which will include the dot plot of where the FOMC think monetary policy should be moving forward.

Here in the UK there are likely to be a number of headlines this week, most notably on Brexit. That follows an escalation in tensions between the UK and the EU last week after the UK government published their Internal Market Bill, which seeks to override parts of the already-signed Withdrawal Agreement with the EU. In response, the EU called on the UK to withdraw these measures from the draft bill by the end of the month, and threatened to use legal remedies if the Withdrawal Agreement were violated. In terms of what happens next, today the bill will receive its first debate in the House of Commons, but the question will be how many Conservative MPs rebel on the matter, with last night seeing the former Conservative Attorney General Geoffrey Cox publish an article in The Times, saying that the bill would do “unconscionable” damage to the country’s international reputation.

Staying with the UK, attention will also be on the Bank of England on Thursday, who’ll be making their latest monetary policy decision. The base case from our UK economist (preview here ) is that there won’t be a further £60bn QE package until December, though there are risks of an earlier announcement at the November meeting. Keep an eye out in case there’s a voting split between the MPC’s 9 members as some might seek additional stimulus.

Turning to Japan, this week sees the election of a new Prime Minister following Shinzo Abe’s decision to stand down for health reasons. In terms of the process, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party will gather today to elect a new Party President, for which the Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga is regarded as the frontrunner. Following the LDP’s election, the Diet will then hold an extraordinary session on Wednesday to elect a new Prime Minister, with the new cabinet expected to be announced on the same day. Against this backdrop, the Bank of Japan will also be holding its latest monetary policy meeting next week, with our economist expecting that the bank will maintain its current policy stance.

Finally on the data front, there are a number of interesting releases. In the US, we’ll get an increasing amount of hard data for August, including industrial production, retail sales, housing starts and building permits. It’ll also be worth keeping an eye on the more topical releases however, especially with last week’s data on initial jobless claims and continuing claims having disappointed. Separately, we’ll also get some major releases from China on Tuesday, including August’s industrial production and retail sales figures.

Reviewing last week now, US equity markets continued sliding led by the large pullback in mega-cap tech stocks. The S&P 500 dropped -2.51% (+0.05% Friday), declining for the second week in a row for the first time since the week ending 1 May. It is also the worst 2-week performance for the index since March, and leaves it down -6.70% from the highs reached less than 2 weeks ago. With tech seeing the largest losses, the NASDAQ again underperformed the broader index, declining -4.06% (-0.60% Friday) and is now down -9.98% from the 2 Sept highs. For context the close on the week has returned us to levels that were first hit in early August and also to levels hit just after the open 10 days ago on the turbulent Friday the day after the sell-off started. So although a bad week, we haven’t sunk through the initial sell-off levels yet.

European equities on the other hand rose last week with the Stoxx 600 ending the week +1.67% higher (+0.13% Friday). The DAX (+2.80%), FTSE 100 (+4.02%), and FTSE MIB (+2.21%) all posted strong weekly equity performances even as worries over increasing Covid-19 caseloads start to permeate. The FTSE was helped by a -3.64% fall in GBPUSD as Brexit risks intensified – the worst week since the pandemic selling peak in March.

The dollar rose (+0.66%) for the second week straight as investors sought havens, it was the first time the dollar index had risen in consecutive weeks since mid-June. Partly on the back of the dollar rise, but also due to weaker risk appetite and worries on global demand WTI (-6.14%) and Brent crude (-6.63%) fell sharply for a second week. With risk assets sliding, core sovereign bonds rose on the week. US 10yr Treasury yields fell -5.2bps (-1.1bps Friday) to finish at 0.666%, while 10yr Bund yields were down -0.9bps (-4.5bps Friday) to -0.48%.

On the data front for Friday, US CPI for August showed inflation quickening primarily driven by the largest spike in used-vehicle costs since 1969. CPI rose by +1.3% y-o-y (+1.2% expected) and +0.4% from last month (+0.3% expected), while on an annual basis, core inflation measured 1.7%. Core CPI rose a similar +0.4%, following last month’s +0.6% rise which was the most in almost 30 years. Elsewhere, the UK’s July GDP reading showed the country continued to bounce back as coronavirus restrictions were eased. GDP rose by +6.6% following June’s +8.7% rise, this was compared to the +6.7% expected.

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)MONDAY MORNING/ SUNDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 18.47 POINTS OR 0.57%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 136.81 POINTS OR 0.56%   /The Nikkei closed UP 136.97 POINTS OR 0.56%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .66%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.8198 /Oil UP TO 37.20 dollars per barrel for WTI and 39.81 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 6.8198 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.8197 TRADE TALKS STALL////TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED//CORONAVIRUS/PANDEMIC  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

Meet Japan’s next Prime Minister:  Suga

(zerohedge)

Suga High: Abe’s #2 Becomes Japan’s Next PM After Landslide LDP Victory – What That Means For Japan

On Monday, two weeks after the (second and final) resignation by Shinzo Abe on Aug 28 who stepped down as Japan’s Prime Minister due to deterioration in a pre-existing health condition (the same condition he cited when he quit for the first time in 2007), Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) held its presidential election to appoint a successor to current LDP leader (and Prime Minister) Shinzo Abe.

 

Yoshihide Suga, Japan’s Next PM

The election results show that Yoshihide Suga (Chief Cabinet Secretary) won a decisive victory over the other two candidates (Fumio Kishida and Shigeru Ishiba), as widely expected, and has been elected the next LDP president. The election will be immediately followed by the wholesale resignation of the current Abe cabinet, the appointment of Suga as the next Prime Minister during a special Diet session on September 16, and Suga forming his own cabinet.

So what does Suga’s election mean for Japan?

A look at Suga’s stance on key policies, courtesy of Goldman, reveals that he is keen on structural reforms and deregulation, maintaining the status quo. Suga has cited ensuring compatibility between preventing the spread of COVID-19 and reopening social and economic activity as his top priority for the time being.

On the economic policy front, Goldman’s Naohiko Baba writes that Suga’s key focus is to push forward with Abenomics, particularly the combination of the active deployment of fiscal stimulus and the large-scale monetary easing program. In short a continuation of Abenomics.

Although Suga has ruled out the possibility of lowering the consumption tax rate as a short-term stimulus measure, citing the need to generate revenue to fund social security amid population aging, he is open to the possibility of increasing various subsidies if needed.

In addition, Suga has emphasized the importance of maintaining a close relationship with the BOJ, as has been the case under the current Abe administration, and of promoting additional easing measures if deemed necessary to sustain employment and keep companies afloat. In particular, he has identified forex stability as a key area of his crisis management, and as a result, the possibility of the new administration encouraging the BOJ to decide additional easing measures, if the yen appreciates sharply, may garner market attention going forward.

Suga has also indicated a strong desire to tackle structural reforms and deregulation. He already has a robust track record of achievements in these areas, including promoting the furusato nozei (“hometown tax”) program and tourism (by promoting inbound tourism and the Go-To-Travel campaign, for example), expanding the number of foreign workers, lowering mobile telephone charges, promoting agricultural exports, and raising the minimum wage. Aside from continuous efforts to promote the above, Suga additionally expressed his strong willingness to facilitate reorganizing regional banks especially via mergers and digitalizing administrative procedures especially through the establishment of a “Digital Agency,” for example

On the foreign policy front, Suga has emphasized the importance of maintaining the US-Japan alliance, based on which he intends to build stable relationships with neighboring countries.

Suga’s term as LDP president will run through to September 2021, when Abe’s term was originally set to end, and at that point a full LDP presidential election will be held as originally planned. Another key timeline is the expiration of the term for the Lower House Diet members in October 2021. With this in mind, the new Prime Minister will face the option of either waiting until the end of his term to hold an election, or dissolving the Lower House and holding a general election before his term ends.

According to Goldman, the LDP may have a desire to avoid being forced to hold elections when there is little time left before the end of Lower House members’ terms in October 2021. It is also notable that support for a new Prime Minister tends to rise immediately after a change in administration. Given the industrial reforms and deregulation Suga desires to achieve will likely take time to implement, attention will focus on whether the new administration goes to the polls by year’s end in a bid to secure enough time for policy implementations. The key factors here will be how the COVID-19 pandemic pans out, and public opinion regarding a general election. In the event of a snap election, the debate will likely include the possibility of a third supplementary budget.

end

3 C CHINA

Amazing that we have a Chinese virologist claiming that she has “evidence” that COVID 19 came from a lab and yet nobody is listening to her

(zerohedge)

‘Rogue’ Chinese Virologist Claims She Has “Evidence” COVID-19 Was Created In A Lab

Once again, the claims of a rogue Chinese scientist with a lot to say, and at least some evidence to back up her claims, has been ignored by the mainstream media. Instead, Chinese virologist Dr. Li-Meng Yan, who was among the first to study the virus at a prestigious university in Hong Kong, where she worked before fleeing China, appeared on the British interview show ‘Loose Women’ late last week. During the interview, she answered questions about her claims, and reiterated thatthe CCP didn’t just deliberately cover up COVID-19 in a manner that led to thousands of unnecessary deaths, the party also knew that SARS-CoV-2 was created by Chinese scientists.

Asked about the origins of the virus, the doctor said “it comes from a lab,” again rejecting reports from last year that the virus originated from a Wuhan wet market, claiming they were a “smokescreen”.

Dr. Li also commented on her claims that Beijing deliberately tried to cover up the outbreak when it first learned of the killer viruseffectively allowing it to escape China and infect the world. When she sounded the alarm about human-to-human transmission in December last year, her former supervisors at the Hong Kong School of Public Health, a reference laboratory for the World Health Organization, silenced her. After a while, she “could not keep silent”, and decided to flee.

In April, Yan reportedly fled Hong Kong and escaped to America in an effort to evade persecution and to ‘spread the truth’ about the pandemic.

“From the beginning, I decided to get this message out in the world and it was very scary in the world because I’m a doctor and I knew if I don’t tell the truth to the world I will regret it myself in the future.”

“I never thought this would happen when I did the secret investigation, I [thought] I would speak to my supervisor and they would do the right thing on behalf of the government.”

“But what I saw was nobody responding to that. People are scared of the government but this was something urgent, and Chinese New Year time, [I knew] this was a dangerous virus and all these things meant I could not keep silent, there are human beings and global health [at risk].”

China’s national health commission has denied that the outbreak started in the lab, insisting there is “no evidence” the new coronavirus was created in a laboratory. Beiing has already scapegoated a large group of local party officials for the errors.

But Dr. Li’s testimony remains extremely compelling.

end
And now her paper:  very compelling
for the paper see zerohedge)
(zerohedge)

On Saturday we noted the case of Dr. Li-Meng Yan – a Chinese virologist (MD, PhD) who fled the country, leaving her job at a prestigious Hong Kong university and appearing last week on British television where she claimed SARS-CoV-2, the virus which causes COVID-19, was created by Chinese scientists in a lab.

On Sunday, Li-Meng joined Twitter – and on Monday, just hours ago, she tweeted a link to a paper she co-authored with three other Chinese scientists titled:

Unusual Features of the SARS-CoV-2 Genome Suggesting Sophisticated Laboratory Modification Rather Than Natural Evolution and Delineation of Its Probable Synthetic Route

She also posted a link to her credentials on ResearchGate, revealing her (prior?) affiliation with The University of Hong Kong, 13 publications which have been cited 557 times.

for the paper see zero hedge who posts it here

Cutting to the chase: “The evidence shows that SARS-CoV-2 should be a laboratory product created by using bat coronaviruses ZC45 and/or ZXC21 as a template and/or backbone. Building upon the evidence, we further postulate a synthetic route for SARS-CoV-2, demonstrating that the laboratory-creation of this coronavirus is convenient and can be accomplished in approximately six months.

And for those who missed it, here’s Li-Meng’s interview on UK television:

As a reminder, Zero Hedge was banned from Twitter on Jan 31 for making just this allegation, following a hit-piece written by an alleged pedophile (who was later fired for plagiarism?) and countless so-called “scientists” screaming that our take was fake news and nothing but propaganda. Five months later Twitter admitted it had made a mistake, stating “we made an error in our enforcement action in this case.”

end

China
China adds the equivalent of $500 billion: a huge monthly credit surge and that portends a rise in real USA rates 6 months down the road
(zero hedge)

China Injects $500 Billion In New Monthly Credit As Surge In US Real Yields Looms

While the financial punditry is preoccupied with the Fed and its $7 trillion balance sheet, whether Powell is purchasing bond ETFs or has enigmatically stopped doing so (as it did in August), and whether the US central bank has any hope of sparking inflation (with or without the help of Congress), what most are forgetting is that when it comes to any global reflationary spark, China – and its $40 trillion financial system which is double that of the US – has been a far more critical driver than the US ever since the financial crisis.

And so, five months after China injected a record 5.2 trillion yuan ($732 billion) in new total social financing – China’s broadest credit aggregate – in March to offset the catastrophic hit its economy had suffered from the covid pandemic, Beijing once again surprised to the upside when in August China injected a whopping 3.58 trillion yuan into its economy ($520 billion), above the highest Wall Street estimate (1 trillion yuan above the consensus estimate of 2.585 trillion yuan) and the biggest monthly injection since the March record.

Here is a breakdown of the latest August credit data:

  • New CNY loans: 1280bn yuan, exp. 1250 billion. Outstanding yuan new loan growth: 13.0% yoy in August, in line with the 13% increase in July 13.0%.
  • Total social financing: 3580bn yuan, vs. consensus: RMB 2585bn.
  • TSF stock growth: 13.4% yoy in August, higher than 13.0% in July. The implied month-on-month growth of TSF stock accelerated to 14.8% from 12.6% in July.
  • M2: 10.4% yoy in August, below the consensus of 10.7% yoy. July, and down from 10.7% yoy in July.

Some observations:

  • August credit data surprised the market to the upside, although even though the sequential growth of TSF rose to 14.8% mom annualized from 12.6% in July.
  • Among major TSF components, government bonds net issuance contributed the most to the acceleration in August. Corporate bond issuance increased from last month despite higher interbank interest rates, suggesting further growth recovery.

  • Shadow banking rose after the steep drop in July, as Beijing appears to be easing its crackdown on sources of shadow funding. Banker’s acceptance bills increased RMB 144bn in non-seasonally adjusted terms, reversing the contraction in July. The decline in trusted and entrusted loans remained modest in August. In total some 71 billion yuan in shadow debt was created.

  • On loan extension, the increase in mid-to-long term loans to households remained relatively strong, consistent with the strong property sales suggested by high frequency indicators. The increase in mid-to-long term loans to non-financial enterprises picked up in August in seasonally adjusted terms.
  • Finally, in an odd divergence, despite the biggest increase in TSY growth since the start of 2018, M2 growth moderated further to 10.4% yoy in August from 10.7% in July. While it remained well above 2019 levels, it begs the question of just where this newly created credit is ending up if not in the broader monetary aggregate.

Going forward, September TSF is expected to remain “robust” according to Goldman, on continued government bond issuance. Given the recent growth momentum and credit strength, policymakers are likely to stay on hold. That said, a slowdown in credit growth will likely come in Q4 as government bond issuance is likely to slow and monetary authorities are in no rush to loosen.

Why does China’s record credit injection in 2020 matter? Because as we showed recently, China’s notorious credit impulse (which as UBS admitted several years ago is the only thing that matters for global reflation), and which is a function of how much credit Beijing creates leads real 10Y yields with a 12 month lead time. As shown in the chart below, a simple correlation suggests that real yields are set to soar by 150bps from their current -1% to approximately 50bps, and that’s assuming China does nothing to further stimulate its economy over the next 6 months.

In other words, if this relationship holds – and there is no reason to expect why it shouldn’t we are not about 6 months away from the next major spike in real yields, which while probably not as violent as Stanley Druckenmiller expects with his forecast of 5-10% inflation, will be sufficient to cause another crash in both risk assets and Treasurys, and spark some real confusion within the Fed which by then will have firmly cemented the perception that no matter what happens to inflation or real rates it will not tighten financial conditions.

Alas, now that China is once again injecting credit in its economy at a furious pace and has even reactivated the shadow banking spigots, it appears that the next spike higher in real rates is scheduled to hit some time in early 2021.

end
Michael Every of the day’s big events:\(Michael Every)

China’s Global Times Warns: “China Must Be Ready For A Potential War”

By Michael Every of Rabobank

August saw a bumper Chinese total social financing number, up much more than the market had expected at CNY3,580bn. That’s around USD500bn in one month in new borrowing, an annualised pace of USD6 trillion, if far lower in y/y terms due to seasonality. The last time we saw a number like that was March, when Covid was smashing growth, as it has everywhere else too: and this is an economy ostensibly doing far better than everybody else.

While it seems Beijing has gone for a bells and whistles growth approach, the details are less ‘positive’- if that is the right word. (And for market-based Western economies that have long relied on non-market-based Chinese borrowing, it is the right word.) M2 money supply was up just 10.4% y/y in August, down from 10.7%: where is this new borrowing going if it isn’t into the money supply? That should set alarm bells ringing as it’s even worse than the Western/Japanese problem of a flood of new money seeing ever-lower velocity of circulation. It may even suggest rather than the historical correlation between the ‘China credit impulse’ and global real yields meaning the latter will rise due to higher China-driven inflation and then even higher global bond yields, it may instead hold due to low bond yields and even more biting deflation.

That’s already the threat from a US economy with no new stimulus package close to being passed; from a UK economy trying to head for Hard Brexit shortly after its job-protecting furlough scheme is rolled back; and as Israel becomes the first country to enter into a second national lockdown, showing Covid-19 will still be an issue well into 2021. Plus, of course, China itself is openly talking about “internal circulation”, which would reduce the global flow-through from it to the rest of the world – with the exception of the commodities it says it will stockpile so aggressively.

Against that backdrop, there is a virtual summit today between the EU and China to try to agree a bilateral investment treaty. In typically European fashion, this began years ago in an environment where thus was entirely technocratic, and ends in one where it is geopolitical. China is openly stating it wants Europe to align with it more closely –against the US– just ahead of a US presidential election that could potentially prove pivotal for the future of US-EU relations.

The EU will want to show it has options. Rather inauspiciously, however, the talks begin with China having just banned German pork imports; and China’s Global Times has published an editorial which is far louder than the wolf (warrior) whistle blown at India last week titled ’China must be militarily and morally ready for a potential war’. Imagine if the New York Times published a story like that based on White House sources.

The GT argues:

“Chinese people don’t want war, but we have territorial disputes with several neighboring countries instigated by the US to confront China. Some of these countries believe that the US support provides them with a strategic opportunity and try to treat China outrageously. They believe that China, under the US’ strategic pressure, is afraid, unwilling or unable to engage in military conflict with them. Thus they want to pull the chestnuts out of the fire. Considering that there is also the Taiwan question, the risk of the Chinese mainland being forced into a war has risen sharply in recent times.

Chinese society must therefore have real courage to engage calmly in a war that aims to protect core interests, and be prepared to bear the cost. In that way, China’s comprehensive strength can be effectively transformed into a strategic deterrence against all kinds of provocateurs… China must be a country that dares to fight. And this should be based on both strength and morality.”

Of course, that probably won’t stop the EU/Germany pressing ahead with its fabulously-successful-and-not-at-all-mercantilism-over-other-values policy of “wandel durch handel”, or ‘change through trade’. However, the US will be watching what is decided very closely.

Meanwhile, of course, actual and potential divisions are as evident within the US (and within the EU and the UK for that matter) as they are between the US and others. Exemplifying the point, US President Trump has now been nominated not once, but twice, for the Nobel peace prize: one for a Middle East economic normalisation between Israel and the UAE and Bahrain, to be signed with full fanfare tomorrow; and the other for a normalisation of relations between Serbia and Kosovo. (And there is a link between the two: see this inadvertently hilarious clip.)

In an age in which it is now a counter-trend to see barriers to trade and travel coming down, both should arguably be celebrated, regardless of provenance. The response from The Atlantic magazine, however, was “End the Nobel Peace Prize”. Without wishing to make a partisan point, there did not appear to be such problems when the prize was won by Aung San Su Kyi, since tarred by the genocide against the Rohingya; by President Obama’s ”vision of a world free of nuclear arms”, who subsequently committed the US to a USD1 trillion modernisation of its nuclear arsenal; or of Henry Kissinger, who illegally bombed Laos to smithereens – prompting Tom Lehrer to note “Political satire became obsolete when Henry Kissinger was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize.” Or perhaps The Atlantic is correct, but has only just got the joke. Or, perhaps we can muse if one day someone will win the Nobel peace prize for bringing the bitterly-divided US back together?

Indeed, against the present news backdrop, rather than wade through further market waffle I will instead share Lehrer’s lyrics to “So Long, Mom”. Feel free to whistle along.

“So long, mom; I’m off to drop the bomb; So don’t wait up for me.

But while you swelter; Down there in your shelter; You can see me; On your TV.

While we’re attacking frontally; Watch brinkally and huntally;

Describing contrapuntally; The cities we have lost.

No need for you to miss a minute; Of the agonizing ho-lo-caust.

Little Johnny Jones he was a US pilot; And no shrinking violet was he;

He was mighty proud when world war three was declared; He wasn’t scared; No siree!

And this is what he said on; His way to ar-ma-geddon…

So long, mom; I’m off to drop the bomb; So don’t wait up for me.

But though I may roam; I’ll come back to my home; Although it may be; A pile of debris.

Remember, mommy; I’m off to get a commie; So send me a salami; And try to smile somehow.

I’ll look for you when the war is over….An hour and a half from now!”

 

END

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

UK

UK’s AstraZeneca announces resumption of its COVID 19 trials despite adverse reaction

(zerohedge)

AstraZeneca Resumes COVID-19 Trials After Halt Over Adverse Reaction

AstraZeneca announced on Saturday that its Phase 3 COVID-19 study would resume, days after a participant fell ill.

The company said in a statement that “the standard review process had triggered a voluntary pause,” to all global trials on September 6, and that the Medicines Health Regulatory Authority had given the green light to resume the trials conducted through the University of Oxford after reviewing the safety data.

The company says that it will “continue to work with health authorities across the world and be guided as to when other clinical trials can resume to provide the vaccine broadly, equitably and at no profit during this pandemic.”

While the company has been approved to continue testing in the UK, it is unclear whether they can resume trials elsewhere.

At least 18,000 people have received the experimental treatment as part of the trial.

Earlier this week, AstraZeneca CEO Pascal Soriot said during a private conference call  that the “potentially unexplained illness” occurred in a UK woman who displayed neurological symptoms consistent with transverse myelitis – a spinal inflammatory disorder, according to STAT News. Soriot also confirmed that the company’s clinical research trials had been halted in July after a different participant experienced neurological symptoms which were found to be unrelated to the experimental vaccine.

“In large trials such as this, it is expected that some participants will become unwell and every case must be carefully evaluated to ensure careful assessment of safety,” reads a statement from Oxford.

AstraZeneca’s potential coronavirus vaccine, called AZD1222, is among the frontrunners in the race toward a safe and effective vaccine that could put a dent in the global pandemic. The company launched its late-stage trials at the end of August. It’s one of at least three vaccine candidates, along with Pfizer’s and Moderna’s, in late-stage trials.

Officials from the World Health Organization have previous hailed AstraZeneca’s vaccine candidate as one of the most promising currently in development. On Thursday, WHO Chief Scientist Dr. Soumya Swaminathan said there’s no need to be “overly discouraged” by the news of the pause of the trial, adding that “these things happen.” –CNBC

“I think this is a good … perhaps a wake-up call or a lesson for everyone to recognize the fact that there are ups and downs in research, there are ups and downs in clinical development and we have to be prepared for those,” said WHO’s Chief Scientist.

Meanwhile, Pfizer/BioNTech announced on Saturday that their Phase 3 COVID-19 trial would increase from 30,000 participants to 44,000 – which will ‘allow for the enrollment of new populations,’ by including ‘adolescents as young as 16 years of age and people with chronic, stable HIV, Hepatitis C or Hepatitis B.’

end
That did not take long:  USA halts vaccine trials amid probe into its serious side effects
(zerohedge)

US Trials For AstraZeneca COVID-19 Vaccine On Hold Amid Probe Into “Serious Side Effect”

Following AstraZeneca’s weekend announcement that it had received the go-ahead to restart Phase 3 testing for its COVID-19 vaccine being developed in partnership with Oxford, Reuters has just reported that the trial remains on hold in the US pending an investigation into a serious side effect in the UK trials -even as other trials elsewhere have already resumed.

It’s the latest blow to confidence in the company’ s vaccine effort, which until now had until recently been considered one of the world’s most promising partnerships, being among an elite group that was the first to make it to Phase 3 trials.

In its report, Reuters said a “serious side-effect” had piqued regulators interest. AZ caused a stir last week when it revealed that its trials had been put on hold after one patient came down with symptoms of a rare spinal inflammatory disorder called transverse myelitis, but on Saturday the company announced that trials would continue.

Here’s more from Reuters:

CHICAGO, Sept 14 (Reuters) – AstraZeneca’s AZN.L COVID-19 vaccine trial remains on hold in the United States pending a U.S. investigation into a serious side effect in Britain even as other trials of the vaccine resume, sources familiar with the details told Reuters.

AstraZeneca on Saturday said it had restarted its trial in Britain after regulators completed their review of a serious side effect in one trial participant there.

This was the first indication that the U.S. trial will remain on hold until the U.S. Food and Drug Administration and a safety panel investigate the case.

Enrollment in the company’s global trials of the vaccine, which it is developing with researchers at Oxford University, was put on pause on Sept. 6.

Sources told Reuters that enrollment of new patients and other trial procedures for the pivotal U.S. trial were being rescheduled until at least midweek and that it was not clear how long it would take for the FDA to complete its probe.

Governments around the world are desperate for a vaccine to help end the pandemic, which has caused more than 900,000 deaths and global economic turmoil. The World Health Organization (WHO) had flagged AstraZeneca’s as the most promising. A prolonged delay in the U.S. trial could slow access to the vaccine in the United States.

The British adverse event involved a study patient thought to be suffering a rare spinal inflammatory disorder called transverse myelitis.

The reaction in the market was surprisingly muted, considering that the “prolonged delay” – as Reuters put it – “could slow access to the vaccine in the United States.”

An AZ spokeswoman declined to comment on the news, but said it “will continue to work with health authorities across the world, including the FDA, and be guided as to when other clinical trials can resume.” Trials in Brazil, South Africa and India appear to be continuing on, which means they may still produce experimental data that the FDA could use toward an eventual emergency approval. But at this point, with the coronavirus global death toll now topping 900,000, the urgency is intensifying, and any delays for the top candidates are deeply problematic.

FRANCE, GLOBE/CORONAVIRUS UPDATE SATURDAY

France Suffers New Record Surge In COVID-19 Cases As Locals Complain About Testing Delays: Live Updates

Summary:

  • US cases climb 47,643 on Friday
  • France suffers another daily record in new cases, moves to speed up testing
  • UK reports most new cases since mid-May
  • AstraZeneca gets permission to restart trials
  • Czech Republic, Slovakia also seeing record numbers

* * *

Europe’s coronavirus revival has worsened late this week after surpassing the US in the daily count for the first time on Thursday. Though new cases in the US surged back into the lead on Friday, with 47,643 new cases, bringing the countrywide total to 6,466,012. As we wait for the latest round of data for Saturday, France just reported 10,561 new cases, setting yet another record daily tally since the start of the pandemic, and establishing France as the leader in Western Europe’s renewed outbreak.

Excluding several daily tallies that included cases from prior days, it’s the first time France has seen the number of cases reported in a single day top 10k. The new record was reported Saturday, and covers all cases confirmed during the prior 24 hours.

The previous record, 9,843, was reported Thursday.

Officials have become increasingly concerned about France’s outbreak as hospitalizations have started to climb, though deaths remain surprisingly subdued. France’s death toll has reached 30,910, with 17 deaths recorded in the past 24 hours.

Yesterday, French Prime Minister Jean Castex outlined plans to speed up testing as French citizens complain about long lines. Among other strategies, the government is opening up testing centers in hotspots that will offer priority testing to those with symptoms. Meanwhile, France has reduced the amount of mandatory isolation time to 7 days from 14 for those who have had contact with the sickened. The new number more accurately reflects the time during which patients are contagious, Castex said, himself having only recently finished a quarantine stint after coming into contact with another infected person.

The French government is seeking to avoid a repeat of a nationwide lockdown, though Castex acknowledges the situation is “obviously worsening”.

While France is leading in the EU, the UK on Saturday reported 3,497 new cases of COVID-19, the highest daily tally since mid-May, compared with 3,539 a day earlier. The UK also reported nine new deaths as well. The UK is preparing for a new ban on social gatherings that’s set to take affect on Monday.

Elsewhere in Europe, The Czech Republic and Slovakia also reported record numbers of new cases late this past week as an outbreak in Central Europe worsens.

Finally, as we noted earlier, British clinical trials for the AstraZeneca-Oxford COVID vaccine have officially resumed following confirmation Saturday by the Medicines Health Regulatory Authority that it’s ‘safe to do so’. AZ released a statement celebrating the victory:

“The standard review process triggered a voluntary pause to vaccination across all global trials to allow review of safety data by independent committees, and international regulators,” AstraZeneca said. “The UK committee has concluded its investigations and recommended to the MHRA that trials in the UK are safe to resume.”

Hopes for a COVID-19 vaccine to be approved before the election took a hit last week when AZ stopped trials after one participant showed symptoms of an “adverse” reaction.

In the end, the delay to AZ’s global Phase 3 trials wasn’t very long. But China’s projects still managed to make some important strides in the meantime.

END
CORONAVIRUS UPDATE/SUNDAY

Czech Republic Suffers Another Record Jump In COVID-19 Cases As Florida Deaths Drop To Just 8: Live Updates

Summary:

  • Czech Republic sees another daily record
  • Austria sees most new cases since March
  • India reports another nearly 95k new cases
  • Florida sees just 8 deaths, lowest since June 15
  • South Korea suspends
  • Italy cases climb for 6th week
  • Wuhan domestic air traffic back to pre-pandemic levels

* * *

During our coverage of the resurgent coronavirus outbreak that’s spreading across the EU, and outside it as well, we warned yesterday that Central and Eastern Europe have seen record numbers emerge in a handful of countries in the area, including the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Poland, Austria and elsewhere.

That trend became even more pronounced on Sunday, as the Czech Republic reported its latest in a series of record increases. Local health officials reported 1,541 new cases, bringing the country’s tally to a new total for a third-straight day. It was also the fifth day in a row with new infections above 1,000 for the country of 10.7 million, which is experiencing one of the fastest rates of infection in the entire EU.

Nearby Austria is also experiencing the start of a second wave of coronavirus infections, as Chancellor Sebastian Kurz has warned, and on Sunday, officials reported 869 new cases, the highest daily tally since March. Kurz has warned that tough months may lie ahead as Europe battles its latest surge.

India, meanwhile, just registered a single-day spike of 94,372 new confirmed coronavirus cases, driving the country’s overall tally to 4.75 million. Indian Ministry of Health officials counted 1,114 deaths in the past 24 hours, taking the country’s death toll to 78,586. While India continues to lead the world in the pace of new infections, Al Jazeera points out that the country has also seen a surge in recoveries.

Circling back to Europe, Italy’s health ministry reported 1,501 new coronavirus cases and six more deaths, bringing the total number of cases to more than 286,000 and at least 35,603 deaths, as of Sunday. Infections have been climbing steadily for the past six weeks, with traveling Italians returning home being once again blamed for the outbreak. According to the ministry, the number of patients in intensive care is also rising, with the total rising to 182 from 121.

According to the ministry data, infections have been steadily increasing for the past six weeks, mostly among Italians returning from vacation. The number of people in intensive care has also increased from 121 to 182 in recent weeks, as Italy has seen the number of new cases being reported steadily climb over the last 6 weeks.

In Asia, Chinese officials celebrated as Wuhan – the global epicenter of the virus – reportedly has seen domestic air travel return to its pre-pandemic levels. In South Korea, officials relaxed social-distancing rules in the Seoul area amid a drop in cases. Thailand, meanwhile, has tightened border controls to stop the virus spreading from other countries.

As of Sunday, more than 4.93 million Floridians have been tested for COVID-19 statewide for an overall positivity rate of 13.47%, state data show. Fewer than 3,000 people are hospitalized with COVID-19 statewide, with 2,635 the exact total.

END
BREXIT/UK/EU
Seems that BOJO will eventually win against the arrogant EU
(Tom Luongo)
a must read..

Brexit And BoJo’s Big Week On The Way To The COVID Gallows

Authored by Tom Luongo via Gold, Goats, ‘n Guns blog,

In the same week Prime Minister Boris Johnson blew up trade deal talks with the European Union he signs a big trade deal with Japan.

In the same week Boris Johnson unveils new, very unpopular social distancing rules barring gatherings of more than six people, he puts the screws to the Scottish Nationalists who still think their support comes from their being arch-Remainers and not the contrary nature of most Scots.

In the same week that Boris Johnson sets an October 15th drop dead date for Brexit talks with the EU, President Donald Trump’s election chances rose to even for the first time this summer.

In the same week Julian Assange goes through a sham trial for the sake of protecting the indefensible actions of U.S. and UK intelligence agents Johnson’s government is mulling scrapping the BBC’s mandatory licence fee handing them taxpayer money to undermine world security as the tip of the Marxist spear.

Now given all of that, it’s clear that Boris Johnson as Prime Minister is a decidedly mixed bag. His response to the Coronapocalypse has been an unmitigated disaster, bowing to political winds he should have never exposed himself to.

In doing so he’s squandered the significant goodwill his Brexit maneuvers of 2019 garnered him and the Conservative party. So, it’s obvious by now that his lack of managerial/organizational skill is what is undermining his government.

At the same time, however, Johnson’s handling of Brexit has been nothing short of excellent, the valid criticisms of the Withdrawal Act by Nigel Farage notwithstanding.

Johnson inherited a poison pill from Theresa May and in his zeal to fulfill a political promise agreed to a treaty with the EU that would bring his hardball negotiating stance to the current crossroads because of his compromises on the issue of Northern Ireland.

As I said earlier in the week so much of the Withdrawal Act is predicated on there being a Free Trade Agreement between the U.K. and the EU on New Year’s Eve.

That looks unlikely and the introduction of the Internal Markets bill to parliament this week is meant to do far more than what Johnson is selling publicly — to clarify the parameters of the EU’s control over Northern Ireland with respect to British law and Parliament’s sovereignty.

And despite the histrionics from Europe and the Remainer crowd in London, it is the EU who are in breach of the Withdrawal Act by in no way measuring up to the standard of negotiating that Free Trade Agreement in good faith.

Michel Barnier’s demand are wholly inappropriate and contravene Parliament’s sovereignty if not the Withdrawal Act itself. For some context as to the legal arguments this is, refer here.

In short, Barnier hasn’t even offered a version of the deal Former European Council President Donald Tusk offered Theresa May in 2018, demonstrating a distinct lack of good faith.

Maybe it was always Johnson’s plan to push Barnier to finally reveal the extent to which he would go to demonstrate this bad faith. Then he puts the EU in the position to accept the effective changes to the Withdrawal Act as clarified by the Internal Markets bill or end talks completely.

This would then give Johnson and the Brits the right to terminate the Withdrawal Act as an international treaty, which cannot, as I understand it, supersede Parliament’s sovereignty unless Parliament agrees to it. This is what Section 38 of the Withdrawal Act clearly states.

And to remind both Mr. Barnier and anyone still reading who gives a good god damn, the EU signed on to.

No one in their right mind believes international law trumps national law. Only globalists like Barnier, Von der Leyen and the rest of the EU oligarchs who think they can sign papers and make them reality.

So, maybe we are on the cusp of something truly earth-shattering when it comes to Brexit after four years. Maybe this tortuous path that Boris Johnson has taken to get to this point was all part of the plan to clean up some of the swamp surrounding 10 Downing Street, doing what Donald Trump does on the other side of the pond.

Win by not budging on the important issues and forcing your opposition to expose themselves to the public the depths of their depravity and (in the case of both the Democrats and the Eurocrats) their incompetence.

I’ve been saying that the USDX has been giving us a very false signal as to what’s been happening in international markets for months. Solid demand for U.S. Treasury auctions belied strength in the pound, the euro and the yen.

Last week the British pound was pressing against $1.35 versus the dollar, forming a triple-top in the $1.35 area on the monthly chart.

But since last week when the odds of a No-Deal Brexit rose sharply as talks broke down and the dollar began firming, the pound has fallen sharply.

After August’s robust move to the highest monthly close in the pound versus the dollar in over two years, the price action this week took the pound back below $1.28 which would be a one-bar bearish reversal if it holds through the end of September.

Is this all about Brexit, though? Or is this just as much about Johnson’s insanely totalitarian move to ban all public gatherings over six people. Sure, the protests in London are just as much a political operation as the ones in the U.S. are against Donald Trump.

Yes, Brexit and Trump’s re-election are the twin pillars standing tall against The Davos Crowd’s Great Reset through the planned destruction of both economies through unnecessary and draconian lock downs. But, as Martin Armstrong points out, it may be just as much about the reality of keeping a damper on social unrest lashing out at those in power regardless of who it actually is.

Johnson’s mistake was caving to the political lynch mob during the worst of the COVID-19 scare. He should have stuck by his ‘herd immunity’ guns. Now he’s paying a stiff political price that only the hardest of hard negotiating stances over Brexit can mitigate.

Moreover, I do think this path to a No-Deal may have been the way his staff thought they could suppress the independence movements in Scotland and the eventual cleaving off of Northern Ireland by the EU. By scrapping the Irish border protocol he’s telling the EU that if a hard border happens it will be you that pus it up, not us.

This, to me, has been his trump card all along. Make the EU the bad guys in the fight for the Irish border. Put Dublin on the hook for its implementation not Westminster.

Scottish Nationals don’t like this path because it also puts them on notice that they can’t just adopt EU rules and force another balkanization of the U.K. through Barnier’s ‘regulatory alignment’ schemes.

And the SNP may just find that they are only popular because of their stance on an independence referendum, not because Scots are desperately simping to be a part of the EU.

Brussels knows this. The Democrats, through Speaker Nancy Pelosi, have already said they would never give the Brits a deal if they break the Good Friday Agreement.

But it won’t be the Brits that do it if Johnson takes the U.K. out on No-Deal in December. It will be the EU. And that’s the basis now for any kind of movement in talks.

This is why the ghost of Nigel Farage is lurking bringing up the specter of Article 24 of the GATT Treaty which can keep tariff-free trade going in 2021 between the U.K. and EU if Johnson scraps the Withdrawal Act completely.

If the EU aren’t interested in that then they better hope Trump loses in 56 days. For now, expect the pound to fall, the FTSE to get a small boost and the euro rally to fade as the dollar firms on Trump’s rising re-election chances.

But no matter what happens from here, the autistic screeching from the EU and Remainers about the “U.K. breaching international law’ will continue right into the courts. But treaties are just paper. They can be broken and a fracturing, impotent EU which lost its Brexit fight and its gambit to break Trump and the U.S. is a toothless one in the long run, despite their image to the contrary.

*  *  *

Join My Patreon if you want help navigating Brexit. Install the Brave Browser to slow the rise of Big Tech Totalitarianism.

end
GERMANY/CHINA
Germany has been hit with a case of Swine Flu  (Pig Ebola) with one case reported on a wild boar. China also stung by high prices due to 2019 Swine Flu which caused 50% of its herd to be decimated through culling and infection
(zerohedge)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

YEMEN/SAUDI ARABIA

Yemen’s Houthis strike Riyadh again with missiles and drones.

(South Front)

 

Houthis Strike Riyadh With Missiles And Drones; Saudi Coalition Retreats In Yemen

Submitted by SouthFront,

Late on September 10, the Saudi capital of Riyadh came under a missile and drone attack from the Ansar Allah movement (more widely known as the Houthis).

The Yemeni missile and air forces, loyal to the Houthi government, announced that they struck a “high-value target” in Riyadh with a Zulfiqar ballistic missile and three Samad-3 suicide drones.

“The attacks are a response to the enemy’s permanent escalation and its continuing blockade against our country,” Brig. Gen. Yahya Sari, a spokesman for the Armed Forces of the Houthi government, said in a statement promising more attacks on Saudi Arabia if the Kingdom “continues its aggression and siege” on Yemen.

The Houthis revealed the Samad-3 combat drone, which also can be used as a loitering munition, in 2019. At that time, they claimed that it has a range of up to 1,500km. As to the Zulfiqar ballistic missile, it is one of a variety of ballistic and even cruise missiles widely employed by the Houthis against Saudi-affiliated targets.

Commenting on the September 10 attack, a spokesperson for the Saudi-led coalition said that Houthi forces launched the missiles and drones at civilian targets in Saudi Arabia, without giving more details.

Every Houthi strike on a target inside Saudi Arabia is a painful blow to the Kingdom. Even without the almost lost war in Yemen, Saudi Arabia has been passing through an economic and political crisis. So, it prefers to deny any damage or casualties as a result of such attacks, simultaneously censoring and silencing reports in social media.

Earlier this week, the Houthis already conducted a series of drone strikes on Abha International Airport in the southwestern Saudi region of Asir. Strikes were delivered on the target for a three days in a row and caused material damage to the installation even according to Saudi reports. The coalition also claimed that it downed at least 2 Houthi drones.

Meanwhile, in Yemen itself, Saudi proxies continue retreating under the pressure of the Houthis and their allies in the province of Marib. Recently, Houthi forces cut off the highway between the provincial capital and an important stronghold of Saudi-backed forces, the Maas base. The expected fall of the Maas base will mark the collapse of the defense of Saudi forces in this part of the province.

6.Global Issues

CORONAVIRUS UPDATE/MONDAY

Global COVID-19 Cases Top 29 Million After WHO Reports Record Jump: Live Updates

Summary:

  • WHO says record jump reported Sunday
  • Global cases topped 29 million
  • Israel imposes new 3 week lockdown
  • Schools reopen across Europe
  • Victoria state sees lowest case count in 3 months
  • New Zealand to lift all COVID restrictions next week
  • Mexico cases, deaths climb

* * *

The World Health Organization on Sunday reported a record-breaking jump in the number of new COVID-19 cases reported worldwide in a single day, with at least 307,930 new cases confirmed. The daily tally – reported Sunday – was largely driven by another near-record total out of India, along with a surge in new infections across the EU and the UK and – notably – Israel, which is now second only to Bahrain for highest infection rate globally (that’s cases/population). The US and Brazil also contributed their fair share of cases.

Meanwhile, the number of new coronavirus cases has just topped 29 million as of Monday (29,030,058 as of 0800ET).

Source: JHU

Deaths, however, haven’t seen nearly as large a rebound as the medical community has learned to better treat the virus, and as the median age of those infected has shifted to a decidedly younger direction.

Source: JHU

The previous record reported by WHO was 306,857 on September 6.

Despite the resurgence, European nations, along with India, are continuing to reopen their economies, as the damaging lockdowns from the spring are simply no longer feasible, given the depth of the economic damage, and growing public opposition. Italy, Portugal and Greece are all sending students back to school on Monday for the first time since the outbreak began.

As cases surge, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has announced that the country will reinstate a strict new countrywide lockdown this week amid a resurgence of COVID-19 cases. The three-week lockdown, which is set to begin on Friday and was announced yesterday, has elicited a surge in anger directed at the PM, as businesses brace for massive scarring. Starting on Friday, schools, restaurants, malls and hotels among other businesses will shut down and restrictions on movement will be imposed. The lockdown is expected to last at least three weeks. Israel has over 155,000 cases and around 1,100 deaths.

Meanwhile, Victoria, the second-most populous state in Australia and its biggest coronavirus hotspot, has reported its lowest number of new cases in three months. In nearby New Zealand, PM Jacinda Ardern has announced that coronavirus restrictions across the country will be lifted on Sept. 21, except in its biggest city of Auckland, its densest and most hard-hit city.

Finally, Mexico’s health ministry reported reported 4,408 new cases and 217 additional deaths Sunday, bringing the total number of infections to 668,381 and the death toll to 70,821 deaths

.

end

A good explanation as to what is going on with the global pandemic:\\

The Clearest and Best Video Explanation of the Virus, the Lockdowns, and the Impact

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings MONDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1866 UP .0024 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS//CORONAVIRUS //PANDEMIC// /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /MIXED

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 105.98 DOWN 0.139 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2871   UP   0.0083  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/

 

USA/CAN 1.3165 UP .0003 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  MONDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE BY 24 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.1219 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 18.47 POINTS OR 0.57% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 136.97 POINTS OR 0.66%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0,66%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL MIXED

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL MIXED 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 136.97 POINTS OR 0.56%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 18.47 POINTS OR 0.57%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP .66% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 155.81  POINTS OR 0.65%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1943.50.10

silver:$26.82-

Early MONDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 0.673% !!! UP 0 IN POINTS from FRIDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 1.422 UP 0  IN BASIS POINTS from FRIDAY night.

USA dollar index early MONDAY morning: 93.03 DOWN 31 CENT(S) from  FRIDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers MONDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing  MONDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.30% DOWN 3 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.02%  DOWN 1   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.28%//DOWN 3 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:0.97 DOWN 5 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 69 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.48% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.44% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR MONDAY

Closing currency crosses for MONDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1881  UP     .0038 or 38 basis points

USA/Japan: 105.64 DOWN .017 OR YEN UP 2  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2892 UP .01037 POUND UP 104  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar UP 3 basis points to 1.3166

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 6.8104    ON SHORE  (UP)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.8069  (YUAN UP)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  7.4914 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +02%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 1 IN basis points from FRIDAY at 0.663 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 1.412 DOWN 1 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 92.94 DOWN 39  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for MONDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 1.22  0.02%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 2.43 POINTS OR .02%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 21.05 POINTS 0.42%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 21.10 POINTS or 0.30%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 14.26 POINTS OR 0.07%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 37.22 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 39.56 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE FALLS:    75.10  THE CROSS HIGHER BY 0.20 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE LOWER BY 20 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.48 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  37.30//

 

 

BRENT :  39.63

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 0.679… up one basis point

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 1.420..up one basis point

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.1864 ( UP 21   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:105.71 DOWN .450 (YEN UP 45 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 93.03 DOWN 30 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.2855 UP 65  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 7.4905

 

 

the Russian rouble 75.25   DOWN 0.25 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( DOWN 25 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3177 DOWN  8 BASIS pts

 

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.48%

 

The Dow closed UP 327.69 POINTS OR 1.18%

 

NASDAQ closed UP 203.04 POINTS OR 1.87%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  25,61 CLOSED DOWN 1.26

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 0.250%//libor dropping like a stone

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

 

Small Caps, Big-Tech, & Bullion Bounce As Dollar Dives

The ‘Rick Astley’ market is back… “Never gonna let you down”…

Another day, another short-squeeze (“most shorted” stocks rose 3% on the day, erasing the losses from Thursday and Friday)

Source: Bloomberg

Which explains why Small Caps outperformed so handsomely. Note how everything went turbo higher at the cash open (interesting that small-caps and Nasdaq diverged notably at the European close). As we neared the close, the ubiquitous buying panic reasserted itself (for absolutely no good reason at all)…

 

Nasdaq tagged its high stops from Friday then faded…

 

Nasdaq, S&P, and Russell 2000 all bounced off their 50DMAs…

But, as Bloomberg notes, European equities are waiting for their next catalyst, having been stuck in a tight range since mid-June with the Stoxx Europe 600 Index unable to pierce above its 200-day moving average.

Source: Bloomberg

While the benchmark has stalled below this ceiling, European equities have been relatively immune to the U.S. tech selloff this month. Improvement on the macroeconomic or the virus front may be needed to create momentum.

Exxon is down 10 days in a row…

 

Very odd day overall with the opening panic being entirely erased in momo/value…

Source: Bloomberg

Seems like the European close triggered an end to it…

Source: Bloomberg

The US Tech sector surged at the cash open, then faded…

Source: Bloomberg

Stocks saw extremely positive breadth today with advancers dominating decliners..

Source: Bloomberg

Treasuries traded in an extremely narrow range…

Source: Bloomberg

With 10Y stalled around 67bps…

Source: Bloomberg

The Dollar dived to what appears to be notable support from last week…

Source: Bloomberg

Mixed bag in Cryptos with Bitcoin best and Litecoin underwater…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold futures bounced off $1950 once again…

Silver outperformed, pushing back above $27 once again…

WTI chopped around between $37 and $38, ending the day marginally lower…

 

Finally, in case you were wondering where the ammo came from to squeeze the shorts, it’s simple. As Bloomberg notes, hedge funds have turned the most negative on U.S. technology stocks in more than a year and half as the sector’s high-flying rally comes to a screeching halt.

Source: Bloomberg

Speculative positions in Nasdaq 100 mini futures flipped from net long to short and slumped to the most bearish since March 2019, according to the latest Commodity Futures Trading Commission data. The tech-heavy gauge just posted its worst week since March amid a recent reassessment of valuations and volatility in the options markets.

And of course, the 1930s analog remains…

Source: Bloomberg

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

Oracle seems to be the winner in the Tik Tok affair but they are not getting the “secret sauce” algorithm necessary to run the app.

(zerohedge)

Mnuchin Confirms CFIUS Will Issue Decision On Oracle-TikTok Deal In Coming Days

Oracle shares surged Monday morning following last night’s late-breaking surprise that the Redwood City-based company, founded by one of President Trump’s biggest backers in Silicon Valley, had beat out Microsoft and Wal-Mart to become TikTok’s licensing partner in the US.

Reporters were quick to point out that the “deal” wasn’t actually a “sale”. Beijing imposed new restrictions earlier this month that would block the sale of TikTok’s “secret sauce” content-recommendation algorithm – hardly a “strategic asset” but certainly the most valuable component of TikTok’s business – effectively making a sale untenable.

But in a wide-ranging interview Monday morning with the hosts of CNBC’s “Squawk Box”, Mnuchin said that the White House had looked at Oracle’s offer, and that CFIUS would now be reviewing the deal. A verdict is expected before the official sale deadline, which is Sept. 20, Mnuchin clarified, helping to dispell some initial confusion about whether the date was Sept. 15 or Sept. 20.

Microsoft, which was working with Walmart to make a combined bid, had been seen as the more likely winner earlier in the process, but that was before Beijing sent the message over the weekend that it wouldn’t allow the algorithm to be sold.

Then, reports about talks cooling emerged, resulting in Microsoft not being asked to make revisions to its offer. Previously, there was speculation that Oracle might have an advantage if the ByteDance started getting cold feet about an outright sale of the US business. Oracle shares were up double-digits in permarket trade.

CFIUS is a panel within the Department of Commerce that must review and approve deals involving foreign buyers that could have implications for national security.

end

For your information on polling:

Yet Another Poll Oversamples Democrats As Pollsters Fail To Learn From 2016

As we’ve noted numerous times over the past several years, a trick commonly employed by pollsters to achieve a desired outcome is oversampling – including more Democrats and left-leaning independents than Republicans and right-leaning independents in surveys in order to make it appear as though a candidate is doing better than they actually are.

The result of absurdly skewed polls in 2016 likely gave Democrats a false sense of security about Hillary Clinton’s actual chances of winning the election. And it’s happeningagain!

As Raheem Kassam writes in The National Pulse:

ABC-Ipsos’s new poll – which ostensibly shows President Trump in trouble – surveyed just 533 people, without a preference for likely or registered voters, and with a significant Democratic Party skew.

The poll – cited across the news media on Sunday – purported to show the public at odds with the President over the coronavirus pandemic as well as the widely debunked story about his supposedly derogatory comments about the military.

But the poll is almost less scientific than a Twitter survey, given who was polled and in what percentages and ratios.

STACKING THE DECK

In total, the poll quizzed 31 percent Democrats, and just 25 percent Republicans. The pollsters also surveyed 38 percent self-identified independents.

In a telling detail, pollster Ipsos actually refused to reveal these party breakdown numbers on their website and in their PDF of the poll. Instead, they opaquely state: “Party ID benchmarks are from recent ABC News/Washington Post telephone polls.”

Recent ABC/Washington Post polls also stacked the decks in favor of Biden supporters, with the July polling quizzing 522 Biden supporters versus 399 Trump supporters. That amounts to a 27 percent inbuilt bias for Biden supporters.

ABC News itself was more up front about the numbers, revealing the stark difference between Democrats and Republicans surveyed.

‘GENERAL POPULATION’

The poll also failed to approach registered or likely voters: a key factor when attempting to rely on polling as a means by which to inform an election.

Instead, they reveal:

This ABC News/Ipsos poll was conducted September 11 to September 12, 2020 by Ipsos using the probability-based KnowledgePanel®. This poll is based on a nationally representative probability sample of 533 general population adults age 18 or older.

 

*  *  *

Now combine oversampled polls with the silent majority of at least 10% of Trump voters who won’t admit their preferences to pollsters due to a lack of trust in phone polls as being truly anonymous, fear their responses will become public, and fear of reprisal.

end

 

The USA is out of control:  Candace Owens rages at BLM enablers over two policeman shot at point blank range. The officers will survive.

(Watson/SummitNews)

Candace Owens Rages At BLM-Enablers Over Cop Shooting

Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,

Following the horrific premeditated shooting of two Sherrif’s deputies in LA Saturday, conservative commentator Candace Owens tore into “pea-brained celebrities” who have enabled “racist,” “anti-cop” rhetoric by throwing their support behind extremists using the label Black Lives Matter.

“Why does this happen?” Owens asked in a tweet, further explaining “Because pea-brained celebrities that are idolized like [LeBron James] tell young black men that they are ‘literally being hunted.’

“This is the natural result of such hyperbolic, dishonest rhetoric,” Owens urged.

“The racist, anti-police, black lives matter LIE is to blame,” she asserted.

In a second post, Owens expanded:

“Why else does this happen? Because when pea-brained athletes put the name of an alleged RAPIST on their helmets and jerseys, criminals begin believing they are acting as heroes,” Owens tweeted, referring to Jacob Blake from Kenosha, Wisconsin.

“BLACK LIVES MATTER AND THE COMPLICIT MEDIA ORGANIZATIONS, ATHLETES, AND ENTERTAINERS ARE TO BLAME,” Owens declared.

The two deputies, aged just 31 and 24, were attacked without motivation while sitting in a cruiser. They underwent emergency surgery for their injuries Saturday night and are expected to survive.

Reports and footage confirmed that a crowd of protesters reached the hospital’s emergency room, and were heard chanting “we hope they die.”

As the sheriff’s department tweeted, protesters blocked entries and exits to the hospital, with some engaging in physical confrontations with officers.

END

 

a good one..

Luongo explains Pelosi’s choice

(Tom Luongo

Luongo Explains Pelosi’s Choice: Steal The Election Or Be Destroyed

Authored by Tom Luongo via Gold, Goats, ‘n Guns blog,

I’ve learned a few things about politics by watching my goats over the years. Herd queens have to be beaten to step aside. They won’t give up status willingly.

I saw this first hand when a vicious challenge ended with a broken horn, humiliation and blood. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is a tough old goat who is clearly making her last stand, facing the toughest fight of her political career.

Congress is at a crossroads over a stimulus package before the election. Pelosi has run out of good choices to force the Republicans into another bad deal, which is her trademark move.

Internal squabbling and strategic missteps has her charting a most dangerous path.

The House returns to session today facing an impasse over another stimulus bill which see both sides entrenched in their positions.

Just under two months until the election, however, the big question is, “Who has the leverage?”

Pelosi always fronts that she’s on top of things. She rules House Democrats with an iron fist and somehow always manages to win these confrontations.

But this time may be very different. Why?

This time she has no leverage. This time the Republicans have the upper hand. Even Bloomberg had to admit that the situation is not in Pelosi’s favor, while talking about all of her options.

Among the unlikely events that could now break the deadlock: President Donald Trump changing tack amid alarm about poll numbers, a sudden reversal of economic indicators that have recently trended upward, and Pelosi or Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell facing a revolt by their own vulnerable, moderate members.

It isn’t that the economic situation is good. It is that there is simply no justification for continued abject panic over COVID-19 to keep people on the dole.

Public opinion has turned against Pelosi and the Democrats in places where they pushed too hard. People want their lives back and for the looting and rioting to end.

Now they are faced with a stark choice: hope the polls are right and Joe Biden will be president on November 4th or challenge the election if they aren’t.

Neither of those choices leave Pelosi with any option to cave to Senate Republicans, especially as Mitch McConnell gave his people the opportunity to vote for something last week to take back to the voters.

All Chuck Schumer could do is filibuster.

It’s clear Pelosi’s strategy has been to allow destruction in battleground states and blame Trump for it. This was their cover story for forcing the Republicans to bail out failing Blue States whose economies were already in trouble regardless of the COVID-19 lockdowns. States like California and Illinois need massive bail outs to survive.

Hell, California needs a lot more than money at this point.

I was asked last week by Sputnik about this situation and what I thought was happening. I didn’t expect a breakthrough in talks then and I don’t today because both sides have seen beyond this fight to what happens after the people vote on November 3rd.

Pelosi is now the villain in this political psycho-drama and all she’s doing is playing to her base, which is dwindling in real terms.

Once talks break down completely and there is no hope of a deal, Trump will unlock some of the Treasury’s massive $1.57 trillion checking account as emergency spending while campaigning on Pelosi’s heartlessness.

It’s terrible economics but good politics. Pelosi can’t fold because she’ll lose control of the House. An internal struggle for leadership will emerge which she won’t survive, no matter how tough she thinks she still is.

Horns break. So do ribs. The Squad is out for her head.

Trump can’t fold because this is his opportunity to break the Democrats and show faith in the American people that they know who’s at fault for their misery.

And as long as there is no signs of stress in the global banking system, which according to the Fed’s latest balance sheet reports there isn’t, Trump and Mnuchin have no need to cave to Pelosi’s ridiculous demands. She’s already come down from $3.6 trillion to around $2 trillion. Trump has rolled back his offers thanks to improving economic statistics playing even harder ball with her.

Pelosi is finally facing a Hobson’s Choice:

  1. Cave and lose her power base within the party, or
  2. hold firm and lose the election.

Since they are prepared to challenge the results in any event, in her mind, this is no choice at all.

And we’ll find out just how brittle her horns are.

My comments to Sputnik are below the break:

Sputnik: How likely is it that representatives from both parties will be able to agree on a bill within the week?

Tom Luongo: Not likely, but this game always plays out this way in DC. They wait until the last minute and then there is a massive cave by one side. Usually, it is the Republicans that fold. This time, if there is an agreement, it will be the Democrats who fold, because Trump and company have done a very credible job of blaming them for holding back help.

That said, this time it may be different. The divide in Washington is deep with Speaker Nancy Pelosi calling Congressional Republicans “domestic enemies of the State”. She may just pick this hill to die on hoping it can cause a deep and chaotic stock market crash. There is a real desperation on the part of leading Democrats and it’s leading them to throw everything at the wall in the hope that something will stick to President Trump in the minds of voters.

The details of what they disagree on at this point is less important than that they won’t agree. Pelosi and Schumer have staked out positions that are unacceptable to Republicans, asking not just for the moon but also explicit guarantees that their bankrupt and corrupt states like New York, Illinois and California are bailed out instead of focusing the support on the people this time around. Trump has fired up both his base and a lot of swing voters with his intransigence on critical race theory, refusing Federal aid to Minneapolis and exposing the venality of local mayors in Chicago, Portland and Atlanta.

Both sides always over-ask purely to posture to their respective bases while trying to claim the moral high ground. I don’t think Pelosi has a leg to stand on given that Trump will just spend the money he has in his checking account, around $1.7 trillion, under emergency measures and his previously issued Executive Orders. While he’s loathe to do this, he can, will and should. Pelosi is terrified of Americans getting another $3000 check from Trump on the eve of the
election.

Sputnik: Can we hope that both parties will put aside their political squabbles and start rebuilding
the economy before the presidential election?

Tom Luongo: In a word. No. The Democrats’ strategy is to wreak as much havoc and destruction on the US economy as possible and blame it on Trump. So, they won’t cave even though they are increasingly thin political ice. Their only hope, as I wrote recently, is to foment violence and hope for Trump to over-react and set the stage for a false flag which turns the American people against him.

There is a strong undercurrent in the US that Trump is the only reasonable choice after four years of the Democrats acting like babies over losing the election. There is a real danger for them to lose this election the same way Labour got trounced in last year’s general election because they were seen as the ones obstinately refusing to implement the will of the people. Americans elected Trump to drain the swamp, end Obamacare and rein in a corrupt Congress. Their histrionics which lead them to oppose everything he does has led them to the brink of their own destruction.

Sputnik: How likely is it that Democrats will agree to a proposal from the Republicans to cut
financial aid? (According to some reports, there are polls that indicate Trump’s rating is growing, the economy is improving, and unemployment is falling).

Tom Luongo: The Democrats still believe that their long-term survival lies with poisoning the American youth to the point where their Marxist cultural revolution is inevitable. Therefore, they will never willingly give up anything that lessens their control over the educational system in the US and financial aid to students is one of these pillars of control. It is nothing more than investing in lifelong voters with taxpayer money. Trump’s poll numbers are good. The internals, by racial sub-category, put him in the driver’s seat for the election.

Biden cannot win most of the battleground states if Trump holds more than 15% of blacks and 25% of Hispanics. This is why Biden is coming out against the violence. In my opinion, it won’t work at all. Their entire strategy is focused on getting people to blame Trump and that isn’t working, now all they have is rearguard actions to shore up the places they are supposed to win to retain the House and challenge the election of voter fraud and mail-in ballots to delay certification.

What’s pathetic is that the lawyers and judges will decide this election, not the voters. But this is exactly what the oligarchy I call The Davos Crowd wants, an end to pesky things like public opinion, democracy and empowered people.

*  *  *

Join My Patreon if unpacking politico-speak is tiring. Install the Brave Browser to empower your voice and not Google’s.

END

FOOD BANKS

Food banks are telling us that we are not going back to normal anytime soon

(zerohedge)

Wisconsin Food Bank Warns: “We’re Not Going Back To Normal Anytime Soon”

Readers may recall Nouriel Roubini told Bloomberg TV in late August, about a week before the stock market rolled over, that Wall Street remained disconnected from the financial hardships crushing Main Street America.

Roubini said, “Main Street is struggling.” 

For more color on the so-called ‘struggle’ as the virus-induced recession continues to plunge the working-poor into financial misery as the fiscal cliff enters the 39th day – a new report, sourced locally in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, outlines how a top food bank in the Milwaukee–Racine–Waukesha metropolitan area “expects a spike in emergency food needs.”

“We’re not going back to normal anytime soon,” said Feeding America Eastern Wisconsin president and CEO Patti Habeck, who spoke with the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.

Habeck said there is “no illusions that the stress on the emergency food system will ease up, given the ongoing coronavirus pandemic and spikes among college students and children.”

However, she said the food bank supply chain has slightly improved, thanks to government intervention:

“So far, through the end of the calendar year, we feel good about accessing the food we need,” she said. “The supply chain … is not as disrupted as it was at the beginning of the pandemic…”

Habeck said the Coronavirus Food Assistance program from the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act, allowed her organization to purchase more food to handle increasing demand as the virus-induced recession resulted in widespread job loss across the metro area. She added that the USDA’s Farmers to Families Food Box program has been “helpful” with keeping the food bank well supplied.

Habeck’s warning about a “spike” in food bank demand comes as the search term “food bank” in the state had risen this week above the mid-April level when food banks nationwide were “overwhelmed” with record demand from broke and hungry Americans who lost their jobs due to the virus lockdowns.

And tell us how a sudden spike in food bank demand is symbolic of a “V” shaped economic recovery…

end
Why giving money to individual states is the last  thing Trump should do(Stephen Moore)

Moore: The Last Thing States, Cities Need Is A Taxpayer Bailout

Authored by Stephen Moore via RealClearPolitics.com,

August jobs numbers showed impressive hiring gains in nearly every sector of the economy. None more so than government.

The public sector added 344,000 jobs last month – including 95,000 permanent state and local jobs, 11,000 permanent federal jobs, and 238,000 Census jobs — giving government workers the second-lowest unemployment rate in the country, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

And yet Democrats, under their latest $3 trillion-plus pandemic stimulus plan, want to dump almost $1 trillion  into state and city coffers — the sector of the economy that LEAST needs more federal help.

Here’s why the left’s plan is so wrong-headed, starting with these August figures:

Unemployment by Industry

  • Leisure/hospitality: 21.3%
  • Mining: 12.4%
  • Transportation: 11.3%
  • All-industry average: 8.5%
  • Government: 5.7%
  • Banking and finance: 4.2%

Another way of describing the imbalance is that throughout the pandemic, a private sector worker has been twice as likely to face the indignity and financial hardship of losing a job than a government worker (8.1% versus 3.5% job losses), according to the BLS data. This is because most government workers have one privilege that almost no one in the private sector has: lifetime tenure.

Federal employees have received an especially sweet deal. Virtually none have gone without a paycheck.

It’s true that a significant portion of the 344,000 government jobs created in August are temporary Census positions, and that overall, government employment is 831,000 below its February level. But compared to other industries – especially the hard-hit food and drink sector, where employment is 2.5 million below the February figure, and professional and business services are down 1.5 million – government workers can’t complain.

The new jobs numbers undermine the logic or fairness of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s demand for what would be by far the largest bailout of any institution in American history. 

Her $3 trillion-plus stimulus plan would have taxpayers write a nearly $1 trillion check to states and cities (on top of $225 billion in federal aid already sent), showering money on what’s already one of the healthiest sectors.

Yes, there are many states in dire financial straits. But this is mostly a result of less- than-stellar leadership by governors including Andrew Cuomo of New York, Phil Murphy of New Jersey, and J.B. Pritzker of Illinois. They locked down their businesses like a prison cell for months, obliterated their tax base (and still are doing so), and went hog wild on spending. New York state has a $30 billion 2020-21 budget deficit, Cuomo admitted in July. Now they plead poverty and demand a Pelosi bailout largely paid for by other states.

But wait… States including Texas, Nebraska, Utah, Idaho, and South Dakota have already balanced their budgets this year. Why should residents of these states be penalized for fiscal misbehavior in other states? That’s called enabling.

The Pelosi plan may be a good way for Democrats to stimulate more campaign contributions from teacher and government employee unions, but it is no way to stimulate what the economy needs most right now: private sector growth.

end
For your interest…
(zerohedge)

South Dakota AG May Have Left Scene Of Fatal Car Accident, Governor Reveals

In a tragic accident that could have political ramifications for South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem – whose speech at the RNC helped cement her national profile – the governor announced during a Monday press briefing that Attorney General Jason Ravnsborg had hit and killed a man during a car accident Sunday night.

Offering what sounded like a flimsy excuse to many, including members of the press, the governor claimed that Ravnsborg believed at the time that he had hit a deer, and had simply driven on without stopping.

However, he had actually struck a man named Joe Boever, a 55-year-old from Highmore, who was discovered the next morning. The accident occurred around 10:30 local time.

The Rapid City Journal, which had a reporter at the press briefing, said information about who found Boever’s body wasn’t released, and that the High Patrol insisted that “all information is preliminary at this point” while they carry out an investigation.

Given the obvious conflict of interest when a state’s top law-enforcement official is caught up in what has the potential to become a criminal investigation – leaving the scene of an accident is a crime, at the very least, so is vehicular manslaughter, charges that can carry serious penalties if the person commiting said crime is found to have been intoxicated.

Officials didn’t say whether Ravnsborg reported the collision, or called 911. Presmably, if he had, the man’s body would have been discovered more quickly.

While it’s unfair of the press to jump to conclusions, it’s also fair to say that the array of facts revealed so far in this case doesn’t paint Ravnsborg in a positive light.

Given the explosive anger currently being directed at law enforcement officers and prosecutors, Ravnsborg’s case has the potential to catch fire and inflame another national controversy – and perhaps even another round of protests, though South Dakota benefits from being both sparesely populated and remote, in an overwhelmingly red state.

end

iv) Swamp commentaries)

 

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

Let us close out tonight with this offering of an interview of Michael Pento with Greg Hunter

(courtesy Greg Hunter/Michael Pento)

Election Chaos Means Market Chaos – Michael Pento

By Greg Hunter On September 12, 2020

Money manager and economist Michael Pento predicts, “We are going to have an election in this country that is the most contested vote this country has ever seen.  Whichever party that loses is not going to accept the results.  That’s mad chaos for the stock market, and that is one of the things I am thinking about when I am managing money.”

Another thing Pento is thinking about is massive Fed money printing in response to CV19.  They have printed a massive amount in a very short amount of time.  Pento explains, “They borrowed $3.3 trillion in fiscal 2020.  All of it was monetized by the Federal Reserve.  We switched to an inflationary hedge, and that worked out wonderfully for us.  Then a funny thing happened at the end of July, the PPP loans, the paycheck protection loans, they were exhausted.  The money that was spent and sent by helicopter, $1,000 per adult, $500 per child and $600 in enhanced unemployment, that was all spent too.  So, you have this massive fiscal cliff I warned about is here and here now.  Last week, I got much more defensive. . . . We borrowed $3.3 trillion, and that was monetized by the Fed, and that is all going away.  The amount of new borrowing is done.”

Pento points out one huge lingering problem, and that is unemployment and people still collecting a check.  Pento says, “There are many programs that people have access to get unemployment insurance.  One of the major ones is called Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA).  That number is 29.6 million people when you include continuing claims and pandemic claims for unemployment.  The PUA portion was up one million people last week.  The number of claims might be going down under the traditional channels, but they are all filing claims under the PUA.  We have a huge divergence of what’s happening in the stock market to what’s happening in the underlying economy.  Rod Serling could not have imagined how crazy this stock market valuation has become.   The valuation inequities is 180% of GDP.  To put that into perspective, it was 140% of GDP in March 2000 just before NASDAQ lost 85% of its value.”

Pento says his portfolio is now weighted with 20% Gold and Silver.  He predicts Fed policies that are coming soon on inflation, and interest rate suppression “will be rocket fuel for gold and silver. . . .And gold and silver are just getting started. . . .  If Bitcoin is $10,000 per unit, why can’t gold be $5,000, $10,000 or $15,000 per ounce?  With the amount of dollars out there, it could easily be $5,000 or $8,000 per ounce, and that is where it is headed.”

Pento also says, “The bond market will eventually collapse, but the biggest collapse coming is the faith in all fiat currencies.”

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes One-on- One with economist Michael Pento.

-END-

 

World economic news:

Well that is all for today

I will see you TUESDAY night.

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