SEPT 16//WILD DAY: FED’S FOMC DID WHAT WE SAID WOULD HAPPEN: THEY WILL LET INFLATION RUN ABOVE ITS 2% GUIDELINES: GOLD CARTEL COMES IN AND WHACKS GOLD A BIT WHILE LONDON IS ASLEEP//GOLD UP $4.90 TO $1962.25 BUT DOWN 4.00 DOLLARS IN THE ACCESS MARKET//SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS/ TIK TOK AFFAIRS VERY FLUID//CORONAVIRUS COMMENTARIES//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

GOLD:

$1962.25  UP $4.90   The quote is London spot price

 

 

 

 

 

 

Silver:$27.23 DOWN  $0.02   London spot price ( cash market)

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Closing access prices:  London spot

 

i)Gold : $1958.20  LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

 

ii)SILVER:  $27.17//LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

CLOSING FUTURES PRICES:  KEY MONTHS

 

 

OCT GOLD:  $1961.90  CLOSE 1.30 PM//   SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE OCT /: $0.35 CONTANGO//$2.75 BELOW NORMAL CONTANGO

 

 

 

DEC. GOLD  $1970.40   CLOSE 1.30 PM      SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE DEC   $8.15/ CONTANGO   ( NORMAL CONTANGO)

 

CLOSING SILVER FUTURE MONTH

 

SILVER SEPT COMEX CLOSE;   $27.35…1:30 PM.//SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE SEPT//  :    ( 12 CENT CONTANGO// 12 CENTS ABOVE NORMAL CONTANGO)

SILVER DECEMBER  CLOSE:     $27.43  1:30  PM SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE DEC.       : 20  CENTS PER OZ  CONTANGO ( 12 CENTS ABOVE NORMAL CONTANGO)

 

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

 

COMEX DATA

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

receiving today: 0/17

 

 

issued:0

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  SEPT CONTRACT: 17 NOTICE(S) FOR 1700 OZ  (0.0528 tonnes)

 

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  4208 NOTICES FOR 420800 OZ  (13.088 tonnes) 

 

 

SILVER

 

 

206 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 1,030,000  OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month: 9544 for 47.720 MILLION oz

 

BITCOIN MORNING QUOTE  $10861  UP 76

 

BITCOIN AFTERNOON QUOTE.: $10,982 UP 199

 

GLD AND SLV INVENTORIES:

WITH GOLD UP $4.90 AND NO PHYSICAL TO BE FOUND ANYWHERE:

WITH ALL REFINERS CLOSED//MEXICO ORDERING ALL MINES SHUT:   WHERE ARE THEY GETTING THE “PHYSICAL?

NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD

 

GLD: 1,247.57 TONNES OF GOLD//

 

 

WITH SILVER DOWN $0.02  TODAY: AND WITH NO SILVER AROUND:

 

NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV

RESTING SLV INVENTORY TONIGHT:

 

SLV: 558.749  MILLION OZ./

 

 

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

 

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IN SILVER THE COMEX OI ROSE BY A FAIR 602 CONTRACTS FROM 161,795 UP TO 162,397, AND CLOSER TO OUR NEW RECORD OF 244,710, (FEB 25/2020. THE  GAIN IN OI OCCURRED WITH OUR  $0.11 RISE IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. IT SEEMS THAT THE GAIN IN COMEX OI IS  DUE TO ATTEMPTED BUT FAILED BANKER  SILVER SHORT COVERING..  COUPLED AGAINST A SMALL EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL :   ZERO  LONG LIQUIDATION, AND A STRONG INCREASE IN SILVER OZ  STANDING  AT THE COMEX FOR SEPT.  WE HAD A GOOD NET GAIN IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 966 CONTRACTS  (SEE CALCULATIONS BELOW).

 

 

WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A STRONG  NUMBER OF  COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE:  340, AS WE HAD THE FOLLOWING ISSUANCE:  SEP 0;  DEC:  340, MARCH  0 FOR ZERO ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  340 CONTRACTS. THE BANKERS ARE NOW BEING BITTEN BY THOSE SERIAL FORWARDS (EFP’S CIRCULATING IN LONDON) ARE  BEING EXERCISED AND COMING BACK TO NEW YORK FOR REDEMPTION OF METAL.  THE COST TO OUR BANKERS IS HIGH BUT THEY HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO ISSUE THEM!

 

HISTORY OF SILVER OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR THE PAST 26 MONTHS.

 

 

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

7.32     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

2.630     MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOV.

20.970   MILLION OZ  FINAL STANDING IN DEC

5.075     MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JAN

1.480    MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN FEB

23.005  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAR

4.660  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR APRIL

45.220 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAY

2.205  MILLION OF FINAL STANDING FOR JUNE

86.470 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JULY.

6.475 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN AUGUST

52.370 MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT

 

TUESDAY, AGAIN OUR CROOKS USED COPIOUS PAPER IN ORDER TO LIQUIDATE SILVER’S PRICE…AND THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE $0.47) ).. AND, OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS  WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE ANY  SILVER LONGS. THE RAIDS THESE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WERE ORCHESTRATED BY THE BIS WITH MEGA ASSISTANCE FROM OUR CRIMINAL BANKERS. THEIR CHIEF AIM WAS TO REMOVE SPECULATORS FROM THEIR LONG POSITIONS.THEY FAILED AGAIN WITH  TODAY’S TRADING….   WE ALSO HAD  ii)  A SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS 2) A STRONG GAIN IN SILVER OZ STANDING  FOR SEPTEMBER, 3) FAIR COMEX GAIN AND 4) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION.  YOU CAN BET THE FARM THAT OUR BANKERS  ARE DESPERATE TO LIQUIDATE THEIR HUGE SHORT POSITIONS IN SILVER..

 

 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

SEPT.

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY /FOR MONTH OF SEPT:

8380 CONTRACTS (FOR 11 TRADING DAY(S) TOTAL 8380 CONTRACTS) OR 41.900 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 761 CONTRACTS OR 3.809 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF SEPT: 41.90 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 5.98% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

 

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2020 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          1,421.61 MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2020 EFP TOTALS SO FAR: 181.61 MILLION OZ

FEB 2020 EFP’S TOTAL :  ……     259.600 MILLION OZ

MARCH EFP’S …..                     452.280 MILLION OZ  //TOTALS//AND A NEW RECORD FOR THE MONTH)

APRIL EFP                               95.355 MILLION OZ.  (EX. FOR PHYSICALS BECOMING A LOT LESS)

MAY EFP FINAL:                     77.27 MILLION OZ

JUNE EFP                              71.15 MILLION OZ.

JULY EFP                               133.95 MILLION OZ/ (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS STARTING TO RISE EXPONENTIALLY AGAIN)

AUGUST EFP                         127.46 MILLION OZ (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS STARTING TO DECREASE AGAIN)

SEPT EFP                                41.90 MILLION OZ (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS DRAMATICALLY FALLING OFF A CLIFF)

 

RESULT: WE HAD A FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 602, DESPITE OUR SMALL  $0.11 RISE IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ///TUESDAY.…THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A SMALL SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 340 CONTRACTS WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS.

 

 

TODAY WE GAINED A GOOD SIZED 942 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES (WITH OUR  $0.11 RISE IN PRICE)//

 

 

THE TALLY//EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

i.e 340 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH A FAIR SIZED INCREASE OF 602 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND HAPPENED WITH OUR 11 CENT RISE IN PRICE OF SILVER/AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $27.25 // TUESDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY. 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 0.808 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 116% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW AUGUST  DELIVERY MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 206 NOTICE(S) FOR 1,030,000 OZ OF SILVER.

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018. AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.70//TODAY’S RECORD OF 244,705 WAS SET WITH A PRICE OF: 18.91 (FEB 25/2020)

 

 

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 10.025 MILLION OZ/ SEPT 43.030 MILLION OZ//OCT: 7.665 MILLION OZ//   NOV: 2.630 MILLION OZ//DEC:  20.970 MILLION OZ; JAN:  5.075 MILLION OZ.//FEB 1.480 MILLION OZ//MAR: 23.005 MILLION OZ/APRIL 4.660 MILLION OZ//MAY  45.220 MILLION OZ//JUNE: 2.205 MILLION OZ// JULY 86.470 million oz//AUGUST 6.475 MILLION OZ//SEPT. 52.370 MILLION OZ//
  2. THE  RECORD PRIOR TO TODAY WAS SET IN FEB 25/2018:  244,710 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $18.90//.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

 

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 

 

GOLD

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 3,493 CONTRACTS TO 578,925 AND CLOSER TO OUR NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE SMALL SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI OCCURRED  OUR GAIN IN PRICE  OF $0.90 /// COMEX GOLD TRADING// TUESDAY//WE HAD ATTEMPTED BUT FAILED BANKER SHORT COVERING AS WE HAD  A GOOD GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES… NOBODY HAS LEFT THE GOLD ARENA.  WE ALSO HAD A STRONG ADVANCE IN TONNAGE STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR SEPTEMBER ACCOMPANYING A SMALL EXCHANGE FOR  PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. THIS ALL HAPPENED WITH OUR RISE IN PRICE OF $0.90. 

 

 

WE HAD A VOLUME OF 0    4 -GC CONTRACTS//OPEN INTEREST  127//

 

 

WE GAINED A GOOD SIZED 5728 CONTRACTS  (17.81 TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

 

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A SMALL SIZED 2235 CONTRACTS:

CONTRACT . OCT: 650 DEC: 1585; FEB: 0  ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO//TOTAL: 2235.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 578,925. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EXCHANGE DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 5728 CONTRACTS: 3493 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 2235 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 5728 CONTRACTS OR 17.81 TONNES. TUESDAY, WE HAD A GAIN OF $0.90 IN GOLD TRADING……

AND WITH THAT GAIN IN  PRICE, WE HAD A GOOD SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL/TWO EXCHANGES GOLD TONNAGE OF 17.81 TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE (IT ROSE $0.90).  WE HAD AN ATTEMPTED BUT FAILED BANKER SHORT COVERING OPERATION . WE ALSO HAD SMALL ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGES FOR PHYSICAL. THE BANKERS COULD NOT  FLEECE ANY OF OUR SPECULATOR LONGS FROM THEIR POSITIONS

 

 

 

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:

WE HAD A SMALL SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (2235) ACCOMPANYING THE SMALL SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI  (3498 OI): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES:  5728 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1 ) ATTEMPTED BUT FAILED BANKER SHORT COVERING ,2.)A STRONG ADVANCE IN  STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR THE FRONT SEPT. MONTH,  3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION;4) SMALL COMEX OI GAIN AND 5) SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL  AND  ...ALL OF THIS WAS COUPLED WITH OUR GAIN IN GOLD PRICE TRADING//TUESDAY//$0.90.

 

 

WE ARE BEGINNING TO WITNESS A LACK OF EXCHANGE FOR GOLD PHYSICALS UNDERWRITTEN DUE TO PREMIUMS STARTING TO REAPPEAR IN THE FUTURE PRICE OF GOLD VS LONDON SPOT. THE COST TO THE BANKERS IS JUST TOO GREAT TO ENGAGE IN THESE VEHICLES ONCE THIS OCCURS.

THE FACT THAT WE ARE CONTINUALLY SEEING A DROP IN COMEX OPEN INTEREST AND VOLUMES COUPLED WITH LESS EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS PROBABLY MEANS THAT OUR LONGS ARE ALREADY DEPARTING NEW YORK FOR THE NEW PHYSICAL PLATFORM AT LONDON’S LME.

 

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS//OUTLINE

SPREADING OPERATIONS/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD  (WE SWITCH OVER TO SILVER ON OCT  1)

 

 

OUR SPREADING OPERATION HAS NOW SWITCHED INTO GOLD…..

SPREADING OPERATION FOR OUR NEWCOMERS:

 

FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS:

 

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED IN GOLD  AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF OCT.

 

 

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEW, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE SPREADERS AND THE CRIMINAL ELEMENT BEHIND IT:

 HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

 

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR SILVER..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR GOLD.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

 

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

.

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO GOLD AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT. HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT FOR GOLD:

 

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF SEPT. BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN GOLD WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

 

 

 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2020 INCLUDING TODAY

SEPT.

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF SEPT : 18,038, CONTRACTS OR 18.038 oz OR 56.10 TONNES (11 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 1639 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 11 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 56.10 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2019, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 56.10/3550 x 100% TONNES =1.58% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD HAS DISSIPATED THIS MONTHTHE COST TO THE BANKERS TO CARRY THESE CONTRACTS IN LONDON IS BECOMING TOO GREAT FOR THEM.

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2020 TO DATE   3,456.26  TONNES

JANUARY 2220 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE; : 570.19 TONNES

FEB 2020 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE :            653.78 TONNES

MARCH TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE                1,098.93  TONNES  (*AND A NEW ALL TIME RECORD ISSUANCE//22 DAYS)

APRIL TOTAL EFP. ISSUANCE:               243.45  TONNES  (EFP ISSUANCE BECOMING A LOT LESS)

MAY TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                     248.68 TONNES (EFP ISSUANCE STILL LOW// PREMIUM COST TO THE BANKERS IS HUGE..SO ISSUANCE IS LESS)

JUNE TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                     192.06 TONNES (EFP ISSUANCE EXTREMELY LOW)

JULY TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;                       313.09 TONNES ..(EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS REVERSE COURSE AND ARE NOW INCREASING!)

AUGUST TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;                 150.78 TONNES  FINAL (AGAIN: RETREATING IN NUMBERS)

SEPT TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                       56.10 TONNES  (AGAIN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL NUMBERS IN FULL RETREAT)

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

 

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, ROSE BY A FAIR SIZED 602 CONTRACTS FROM 161,795, UP TO 162,397 AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 3/4 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

THE FAIR SIZED GAIN IN OI SILVER COMEX WAS PRIMARILY DUE TO 1)  ATTEMPTED BUT FAILED BANKER SHORT COVERING  , 2) A SMALL  ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (SEE BELOW), 3) A STRONG GAIN IN OUNCES STANDING FOR SILVER AT THE COMEX FOR SEPT., AND 4) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION,

 

 

 

 

EFP ISSUANCE 340 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 SEPT: 0 AND DEC. 340 AND MARCH:  0  ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 340 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI GAIN OF 602 CONTRACTS TO THE 340 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A GOOD SIZED GAIN OF 942 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 4.710 MILLION  OZ, OCCURRED WITH OUR 11 CENT GAIN IN PRICE///

 

 

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL..THE EVIDENCE IS CLEAR: HUGE AMOUNTS OF PHYSICAL STANDING FOR BOTH  SILVER AND GOLD .

(report Harvey)

 

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)WEDNESDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 11.75 POINTS OR 0.36%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 7.13 POINTS OR 0.03%   /The Nikkei closed up 20.64 POINTS OR 0.09%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 1.11%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.75956 /Oil UP TO 39.12 dollars per barrel for WTI and 41.36 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 6.7595 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.7585 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED//CORONAVIRUS//PANDEMIC//  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

 

COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

 

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST  ROSE BY BY A SMALL SIZED 3493 CONTRACTS TO 578,925 MOVING CLOSER TO  OUR  RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020).  AND ALL OF THIS SMALL COMEX INCREASE OCCURRED WITH OUR TINY GAIN OF $0.90 IN GOLD PRICING /TUESDAY’S COMEX TRADING/). WE ALSO HAD A SMALL EFP ISSUANCE (2235 CONTRACTS),.  THUS,  WE HAD  1)  ZERO BANKER SHORT COVERING AS WE HAD A GOOD GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 5728 CONTRACTS,…….. , PLUS WE HAD 2)  ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION  AND 3)  ANOTHER HUGE  INCREASE IN TONNAGE  STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX//SEPT. DELIVERY MONTH (SEE BELOW) …  AS WE ENGINEERED A GOOD SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 5774 CONTRACTS MENTIONED ABOVE.WE HAVE LATELY WITNESSED THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL….. AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. THE COMEX IS THE SCENE FOR AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS EXERCISE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS AND TURN THEM INTO REAL METAL. NO DOUBT THAT THIS IS THE REASON FOR OUR BANKERS TO LIGHTEN UP ON THEIR USE AS OUR LONDON FRIENDS, BY EXERCISING ON THESE COMEX INITIATED VEHICLES, ARE BITING OUR BANKERS BACK AND PUTTING A NOOSE AROUND THEIR NECKS.

 

 

 

(SEE BELOW)

 

 

WE  HAD 0    4 -GC VOLUME//open interest REMAINS AT 127

 

 

 

 

 

 

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A SMALL SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 2235 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:   OCT: 500  DEC 1585; FEB// ’21 0 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2235  CONTRACTS.

YOU WILL FIND THAT WHEN WE HAVE A GOOD PREMIUM IN THE FUTURES/SPOT, THEN THE NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS DECLINE IN NUMBERS.  THE COST IS JUST TOO MUCH FOR THEM TO ISSUE. TODAY THAT PREMIUM WAS SMALL AND THUS A LITTLE MORE THAN USUAL OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WERE ISSUED.

 

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 5728 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 2235 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A SMALL SIZED 3,493 COMEX CONTRACTS.  THE BANKERS ARE NOW LOATHE TO SUPPLY THE SHORT PAPER.  THEY CONTINUE TO ISSUE  SMALLER AMOUNTS OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL AS THE COST ON CARRYING SERIAL FORWARDS IN LONDON IS TOO GREAT FOR THEM. WITH MONDAY’S TRADING WE HAD MINOR BANKER SHORT COVERING,  AS OUR BANKERS HAVE BEEN CAUGHT TERRIBLY OFFSIDE ON THEIR SHORT POSITIONS..AND THUS THE REASON FOR OUR CONSTANT RAIDS, THESE PAST SEVERAL DAYS .. AGAIN NOBODY LEFT THE GOLD ARENA AS WE HAD A STRONG GAIN IN OI ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. (SEE BELOW)

 

 

 

 

 

THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT ROSE $0.90).  AND, THEY WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING ANY LONGS ALONG WITH SOME MINOR BANKER SHORT COVERING. THE TOTAL GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES REGISTERED  17.81 TONNES  WITH THE SLIGHT RISE IN  PRICE

 

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES :: 5728, CONTRACTS OR 572800 OZ OR 17.81 TONNES.

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT COMMODITY FUTURES OPEN INTEREST SHOULD APPROXIMATE 3% OF TOTAL PRODUCTION.  IN GOLD THE WORLD PRODUCES AROUND 3500 TONNES PER YEAR BUT ONLY 2200 TONNES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE WEST (THUS EXCLUDING RUSSIA, CHINA ETC..WHO KEEP 100% OF THEIR PRODUCTION)

THUS IN GOLD WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:  578,925 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS X 100 OZ PER CONTRACT = 57.89 MILLION OZ/32,150 OZ PER TONNE =  1800 TONNES

THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST REPRESENTS 1800/2200 OR 81.84% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF GOLD.

 

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 223,327 contracts// volume  POOR

 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  262,801 contracts//  volume: poor  //most of our traders have left for London

 

 

SEPT 16 /2020

SEPT. GOLD CONTRACT MONTH

INITIAL STANDING FOR SEPT GOLD

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
nil oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz NIL oz

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

NIL

 

 

 

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
17 notice(s)
 1700 OZ
(.0528 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
56 contracts
(5600 oz)
0.174 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
4208 notices
420800 OZ
13.088 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

We had 0 deposit into the dealer

 

 

total deposit: nil oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had 0 deposit into the customer account

 

 

 

total customer deposit:  nil     oz

 

 

we had 0 gold withdrawals from the customer account:

 

 

 

total withdrawals; NIL    oz

 

 

 

 

We had 0  kilobar transactions  +

 

ADJUSTMENTS: 1 //

i) Out of BRINKS:  320,320.413 oz was adjusted out of the DEALER account and into the CUSTOMER account.

9.96 TONNES

 

The front month of SEPT registered a total of 73 contracts for a GAIN of 23 contracts.  We had 25 notices filed on Tuesday, so we gained a strong 48 contracts or an additional 4800 oz will stand for delivery in this non active month of Sept. Remember that we have been adding to our gold deliveries despite the raid these past 6 days.

Oct LOST a tiny 41 contracts down to 62,193  ( STRANGELY NOBODY HAS LEFT THE ARENA ON OUR FRONT MONTH OF OCTOBER).  November gained 8 contracts to stand at 123.

The big December contract GAINED 2726 contracts UP to 430,358 contracts..

THE BIG STORY TODAY IS THE HUGE OI FOR OCTOBER AND ITS REFUSAL TO CONTRACT (ROLL TO ANOTHER MONTH). GENERALLY OCTOBER IS A POOR DELIVERY MONTH AS MOST INVESTORS PREFER TO SKIP THIS MONTH AND MOVE STRAIGHT TO DECEMBER.  IT LOOKS LIKE MANY JUST CANNOT WAIT FOR DECEMBER..THEY ARE MAKING THEIR MOVE ON OCTOBER FOR METAL.

 

 

 

 

 

 

We had 17 notices filed today for  1700 oz

 

FOR THE SEPT 2020 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and  0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 17 contract(s) of which 0  notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the SEPT /2020. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (4204) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  SEPT (73 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today (17 x 100 oz per contract) equals 426,400 OZ OR 13.263 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this active month of JUNE

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the SEPT/2020 contract month:

No of notices filed so far (4204, x 100 oz + 73 OI) for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (17) x 100 oz which equals 426,400 oz standing OR 13.263 TONNES in this  active delivery month. This is a HUGE amount for gold standing for a SEPT delivery month (a NON active delivery month).

 

We gained 48 contracts or an additional 4800 oz will try their luck searching for metal on this side of the pond.

 

 

 

 

 

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:  BRINKS

 

308,004.832 oz NOW PLEDGED  SEPT 15.2020/HSBC  9.5802 TONNES

 

42,548.308.00 PLEDGED  APRIL 3/2020: SCOTIA:            1.3234 tonnes

deleted Int. Delaware pledge July 7  (600 tonnes)

261,958.320 oz  (some deleted august 3)         JPM  8.14 TONNES

610,238.285 oz pledged June 12/2020 Brinks/   july 2/july 21               19.017 tonnes

51,084.609 oz Pledged August 21/regular account 1.588 tonnes jpm

total pledged gold:  1,273,834.354 oz                                     39.62 tonnes

 

 

 

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES…. WE HAVE 457.77 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS i.e. 13.263 tonnes

CALCULATION OF REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SETTLED UPON:

total registered or dealer  15,990,183.847 oz or 497.36 tonnes
which  includes the following:
a) pledged gold held at HSBC   which cannot settled upon   1,213,834.354 oz x ( 9.5802 TONNES)//
b) pledged gold held at JPMorgan (SOME  DELETED JUNE 24 2020/SOME JULY 9; SOME JULY 22/July 03/august 3) which cannot be settled upon:  261,958.320 oz (or 8.14 tonnes)
total pledged gold:
b 2 pledged gold JPMorgan august 21/2020;  51,084,609 oz  (1.588 tonnes)
c)  pledged gold at Scotia: 1.3234 tonnes or 42,548.308 oz which cannot be settled  (1.3234 tonnes)
d) pledged gold at Manfra:  DELETED  MAY 26.2020
e) pledged gold at int.Del.    DELETED:   JULY 7.2020
f) pledged gold at Brinks:  DELETED july 2 and july 21
g) pledged gold at Brinks: 610,238.285 oz added which cannot be settled:  18.980 tonnes
total weight of pledged:  1,273,834.354 oz or 39.62 tonnes
thus:
registered gold that can be used to settle upon:  14,716,349.0  (457.77 tonnes)
true registered gold  (total registered – pledged tonnes  14,716,349.0 (457.77 tonnes)
total eligible gold:  20,422,404.789 oz (635.22 tonnes)

total registered, pledged  and eligible (customer) gold  36,432,588.636 oz 1,133.20 tonnes (INCLUDES 4 GC GOLD)

total 4 GC gold:   126.34 tonnes

total gold net of 4 GC:  1006,86 tonnes

 

end

 

I have compiled  data with respect to registered (or dealer) gold taken on first day notice for each of the past 24 months

The data begins on first day notice for the May month taken on the last day of July 2018. and it continues to present day.

 

I then took, how many deliveries were recorded by the CME for each and every month.  I also included for reference the price of gold on first day notice.

 

The first graph is a logarithmic  graph and the second graph, linear.

You can see the huge explosion of registered gold at the comex along with deliveries.

 

 

THE DATA AND GRAPHS:

 

 

 

THE GOLD COMEX SEEMS TO BE  UNDER SEVERE ASSAULT FOR PHYSICAL

END

SEPT 16/2020

And now for the wild silver comex results

And now for the wild silver comex results

 

INITIAL STANDINGS

SEPT. SILVER COMEX CONTRACT MONTH//INITIAL STANDING

Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
nil

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
2,459,945.800 oz
CNT
Delaware
JPMorgan
Loomis
No of oz served today (contracts)
206
CONTRACT(S)
(1,030,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
930 contracts
 4,650,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  9544 contracts

47,720,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
We had 0 deposit into the dealer:

total dealer deposits: NIL     oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

 

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

 

we had 4 deposits into the customer account (ELIGIBLE ACCOUNT)

i)into JPMorgan: 573,411.600 oz  (the JPMorgan continues to add silver to its inventory//9TH DAY IN A ROW)

ii) Into CNT:  1,273,002.700 oz

iii) Into Delaware: 10,455.600 oz

iv) Into Loomis:  603,075.900

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

JPMorgan now has 177.566 million oz of  total silver inventory or 48.91% of all official comex silver. (177.566 million/363.028 million

 

total customer deposits today:  2,459,945.800   oz

we had 0 withdrawals:

 

 

 

total withdrawals; nil    oz

We had 1 adjustments/

i) out of CNT:  1027,166.240 oz was adjusted out of the customer account and this lands into the dealer account

 

 

Total dealer(registered) silver: 140.216 million oz

total registered and eligible silver:  363.028 million oz

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

the front month of SEPTEMBER registered an open interest of 1136 contracts thus gaining 23 contracts.  We had 6 notices filed on TUESDAY so we GAINED 29 contracts or an additional 145,000 oz will stand in this active delivery month of September  as they refused to  morph into London based forwards and thus they also negated a fiat bonus.  Our London boys are ready to exercise these EFP’s and they will turn them into real physical metal as we now have a full frontal attack on both of our two precious metals.

 

Oct saw another GAIN of 118 contracts to stand at 1404.November LOST 1 contract to stand at 13,

The big December contract month saw its OI GAIN by 369 contracts up to 140,484

 

 

The total number of notices filed today for the SEPT 2020. contract month is represented by 6206 contract(s) FOR 1,030,000, oz

 

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in SEPT we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 9544 x 5,000 oz = 47,720,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of SEPT(1136) and the number of notices served upon today 206 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

 

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the SEPT/2019 contract month: 9544 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of SEPT  (1136)- number of notices served upon today (206) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the SEPT contract month.equals 52,370,000 oz. ..VERY STRONG FOR AN ACTIVE MONTH.

We GAINED 29 contracts or AN ADDITIONAL 145,000 oz. WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY IN THIS ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH, AS THEY LOOK FOR METAL ON THE THIS SIDE OF THE POND!

YOU WILL NOTE THAT THE NOTICES FILED SO FAR ARE PRETTY SMALL. IT MEANS THAT OUR BANKER FRIENDS ARE HAVING TROUBLE LOCATING PHYSICAL AND FREE AND UNENCUMBERED SILVER TO PROVIDE TO OUR LONGS.

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME : 45,536 CONTRACTS // volume poor//

 

 

 

 

 

FOR YESTERDAY   63,725.  ,CONFIRMED VOLUME// fair

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 63,725 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 0.318 billion  OZ 45.5% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

 

NPV for Sprott

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV  RISES TO- 2.13% ((SEPT 16/2020)

2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV  FALLS TO -0.33% to NAV:   (SEPT 16/2020 )

Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/2.13%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA

3. SPROTT CEF .A   FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 20.60 TRADING 20.20///NEGATIVE 1.92

END

 

 

 

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

SEPT 16.WITH GOLD UP $4.90 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1247.57 TONNES

SEPT 15//WITH GOLD UP $2.25 TODAY: A SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .43 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1247.57 TONNES

SEPT 14/WITH GOLD  DOWN 90 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.96 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1248.00 TONNES

SEPT 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.80//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1252.96 TONNES

SEPT 10/WITH GOLD UP $8.85 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.92 TONNES INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1252.96 TONNES

SEPT 9/WITH GOLD UP $19.55 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1250.04 TONNES

SEPT 8/WITH GOLD UP $8.20 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1250.04 TONNES

SEPT 4//WITH GOLD DOWN $3.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1250.04 TONNES

SEPT 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.50 ON THIS 2ND DAY OF A 3 DAY RAID:  NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1250.04 TONNES

SEPT 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $34.00 TODAY, WE HAVE 2 SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: 2 WITHDRAWALS OF .87 TONNES AND.59 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1250.04 TONNES

SEPT 1/WITH GOLD UP $7.10 TODAY, WE HAVE NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1251.50 TONNES

AUGUST 31//WITH GOLD UP $5.90 TODAY/WE HAD NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1251.50 TONNES/

AUGUST 28/WITH GOLD UP $38.20 TODAY, WE SURPRISINGLY HAD A .59 TONNE WITHDRAWAL//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1251.50 TONNES

AUGUST 27/WITH GOLD DOWN 17.50 TODAY: WE HAD A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A DEPOSIT OF 3.24 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY REST AT 1252.09 TONNES

AUGUST 26/WITH GOLD UP $26.70  TODAY/  WE  HAD A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.53 TONNES FROM THE GLD//RESTS AT 1248.85 TONNES

AUGUST 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.60 TODAY, WE  HAD NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//RESTS AT 1252.38 TONNES

AUGUST 24//WITH GOLD DOWN $7.20 TODAY: WE HAD NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: /INVENTORY RESTS AT 1258.38 TONNES

AUGUST 21//WITH GOLD DOWN $.40 TODAY: WE HAD NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: /INVENTORY RESTS AT 1252.38 TONNES

AUGUST 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $23.45 TODAY: WE HAD NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: .//INVENTORY REST AT  1252.38 TONNES

AUGUST 19//WITH GOLD DOWN $39.65 TODAY: WE HAD NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1252.38 TONNES

AUGUST 18/WITH GOLD UP $14.60 TODAY: WE HAD A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 4.09 TONNES//GLD INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 1252.38 TONNES

AUGUST 17/WITH GOLD UP $46.30  TODAY:  SURPRISINGLY WE HAD A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A WITHDRAWAL  OF 3.8 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1248.29 TONNES

AUGUST 14/ WITH GOLD DOWN $19.45 TODAY: SURPRISINGLY, WE HAD A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A DEPOSIT OF 1.46 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1252.63 TONNES.

AUGUST 13/WITH GOLD UP $23.15 TODAY: WE HAD A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: SURPRISINGLY A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 7.30 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1250.63 TONNES

AUGUST 12/ WITH GOLD UP $1.00 TODAY: WE HAD A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.19 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1257.93 TONNES

AUGUST 11//WITH GOLD DOWN $92.40 TODAY, WE HAD NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1262.12 TONNES.

AUGUST 10/WITH GOLD UP $11.35  TODAY, WE HAD A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.84 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1262.12 TONNES

AUGUST 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $38.30 TODAY, WE HAVE NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1267.96 TONNES

AUGUST 6/WITH GOLD UP $20.45 TODAY, WE HAVE ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 10.23 TONNES INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1267.96  TONNES//

AUGUST 5/WITH GOLD UP $ 33.75 TODAY, WE HAVE A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/A DEPOSIT OF 9.35 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1257.73 TONNES

AUGUST 4//WITH GOLD UP $31.75 TODAY, WE HAVE A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A DEPOSIT OF 6.48 TONNES/GLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 1248.38 TONNES

AUGUST 3/WITH GOLD UP $2.20 TODAY, WE HAVE NO CHANGES IN THE GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1241,96 TONNES

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

Inventory rests tonight at

SEPT 16/ GLD INVENTORY 1247.57 tonnes*

LAST;  902 TRADING DAYS:   +308.07 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN ADDED THE GLD

 

LAST 802 TRADING DAYS://+486.60  TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

 

end

 

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

SEPT 16//WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 558.749 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 15/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.793 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 558.749MILLION OZ..

SEPT 14/WITH SILVER UP 47 CENTS TODAY:  HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: 2 WITHDRAWALS A) 1.675 MILLION OZ AND ANOTHER B) 0.931 MILLION OZ/ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 555.956 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 39 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 558.562 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 10/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.607 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 558.562 MILLION OZ.

SEPT 9/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: STRANGE: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.63 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 561.169 MILLION OZ

SEPT 8/WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 564.799 MILLION OZ

SEPT 4//WITH SILVER DOWN 15  CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 3.631 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 564.799 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 3//WITH SILVER DOWN 50 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.258 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 568.430 MILLION OZ/./

SEPT 2.WITH SILVER DOWN $1.04 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.365 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY REST AT 571.688 MILLION OZ.

SEPT 1//WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 574.053 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 31/WITH SILVER UP 80 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN THE SLV//A DEPOSIT OF 2.982 MILLION OZ ENTERS THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 574.053 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 28/WITH SILVER UP 48 CENTS TODAY: A MASSIVE PAPER DEPOSIT OF 4.652 MILLION OZ ENTERS THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 571.071 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 28 CENTS  TODAY// NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 566.419 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 26//WITH SILVER UP $1.04 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.65 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 566.419 MILLION OZ..

AUGUST 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.607 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 571.074 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 24//WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS TODAY: WE HAD A NO CHANGES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 573.843  MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 21//WITH SILVER DOWN 30 CENTS TODAY: WE HAD A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A DEPOSIT OF.838 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 573.843 MILLION OZ..

AUGUST 20/WITH SILVER DOWN $.26 TODAY: WE HAD A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.724 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV..//INVENTORY REST AT 572.843 MILLION  OZ

AUGUST 18/WITH SILVER UP $.44 TODAY: WE HAD A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A DEPOSIT OF 2.514 MILLION OZ//THE SLV INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 576.567 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 17/WITH SILVER  UP $1.27 TODAY: WE HAD NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: //INVENTORY RESTS AT 574.053 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 14/WITH SILVER DOWN  $1.31 TODAY, WE HAD A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.984 MILLION OZ// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 574.053 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 13//WITH SILVER UP $1.76  TODAY: WE HAVE TWO HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.421  MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV AT 2 PM AND ANOTHER DEPOSIT OF 6.984 MILLION OZ AT 5 20 PM/INVENTORY RESTS AT 581.037 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 40 CENTS TODAY: WE HAVE ANOTHER CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A WITHDRAWAL OF XX MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT XX MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 11/WITH SILVER DOWN $3.25 CENTS, WE HAVE ANOTHER CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A DEPOSIT OF 2.41 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 571.632 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 10/WITH SILVER UP 1.89 TODAY, WE HAVE ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.538 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 569.491  MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 69 CENTS TODAY: WE HAVE ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 0.465 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 573.029 MILLION OZ.

AUGUST 6/WITH SILVER UP $1.52 TODAY, WE HAVE NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 572.564 MILLION OZ///

AUGUST 5/WITH SILVER UP $1.03 TODAY, WE HAVE A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A MONSTROUS DEPOSIT OF 5.403 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 572.564 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 4/WITH SILVER UP $1.45 TODAY, WE HAVE NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: //INVENTORY RESTS AT 367.161 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 3/WITH SILVER UP 23 CENTS TODAY: WE HAVE A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//SURPRISINGLY ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 0.931 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 367.161 MILLION OZ//

 

SEPT 16.2020:

SLV INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT

558.749 MILLION OZ

 

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

Gold is Looking Strong as it Tests Resistance

Since it’s sell-off from it’s early August high, gold has been stuck in an ever decreasing range.

 

Having had a remarkable rally to an intra-day high of $2,078 on the 7th of August Gold has traded sideways and consolidated. This has been viewed by many market commentators as a healthy pause in gold’s bull rally as when markets go parabolic they tend to retrace just as fast.

The underlying rationale for owning gold has not change over the last month and some would say that it continues to increase. However, stock markets returned to their uptrend and gold traded sideways in an ever tighter range.

It is once again testing the top of the short term range and a close above $1,975 could quickly see a retest of $2,000. However, a failure at these levels could set up a further retracement in the short term, which could test $1,910 or lower.

NEWS and COMMENTARY

Gold gains as dollar softens ahead of Fed meeting

Slowing investor demand looms over gold prices (Reuters)

Dollar softer on improved risk appetite, yuan soars

Why gold is still a safe haven in times of crisis

IEA cuts 2020 oil demand forecast, sees ‘treacherous’ path ahead with rising coronavirus cases

GOLD PRICES (USD, GBP & EUR – AM/ PM LBMA Fix)

14-Sep-20 1942.30 1958.70 1511.69 1518.97 1638.14 1648.83
11-Sep-20 1944.50 1947.40 1519.82 1523.06 1639.41 1644.38
10-Sep-20 1944.80 1966.25 1493.41 1519.71 1643.74 1651.26
09-Sep-20 1928.40 1947.20 1489.69 1496.62 1638.56 1647.14
08-Sep-20 1920.60 1910.95 1467.72 1466.27 1626.17 1622.40
07-Sep-20 1928.40 1928.45 1463.08 1465.43 1629.88 1631.47
04-Sep-20 1937.60 1926.30 1456.49 1459.56 1634.75 1633.12
03-Sep-20 1934.10 1940.45 1453.86 1459.99 1635.28 1637.74
02-Sep-20 1969.00 1947.05 1475.17 1462.43 1659.47 1645.45
01-Sep-20 1987.95 1972.35 1479.83 1469.60 1661.33 1651.45
28-Aug-20 1955.85 1957.35 1471.97 1472.91 1642.72 1647.31

 

Access Latest Goldnomics Podcast (Part II) Here

Own gold coins and bars in the safest vaults in Zurich, Switzerland with GoldCore. Learn why Switzerland remains a safe haven jurisdiction for owning precious metals. Access Our Most Popular Guide, the Essential Guide to Storing Gold in Switzerland here

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Mark O’Byrne
Executive Director

 

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

The Central Bank of Australia states that a weaker Aussie dollar would aid in their recovery

GATA

Central bank says weaker Australian dollar would aid recovery

 Section: 

RBA Weighs In on Currency, Saying a Weaker Dollar Would Help Recovery

By Sarah Turner
Australian Financial Review, Sydney
Tuesday, September 15, 2020

The Reserve Bank concedes a weaker dollar would help the economy recover from its historic COVID-19 recession, breaking its silence to agree with the blue-chip companies that warn of exchange rate pain.

The central bank’s comments, revealed in the minutes of its September policy decision, came a day after Macquarie Group flagged that its first-half result would drop sharply partly because of the stronger Australian dollar.

… 

The investment bank generates about two-thirds of its earnings outside Australia, prompting broker UBS to downgrade its forecasts for Macquarie’s earnings per share for this financial year and the next due in some degree to an “unfavourable currency translation impact.” …

 

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/weaker-a-would-help-recovery-…

end

Craig Hemke comments that the Comex is being transformed into a physical delivery mechanism.  A must read..

(Sprott/Hemke)

Craig Hemke at Sprott Money: Gold offtake is the trend, so don’t be distracted

 Section: 

6p ET Tuesday, September 15, 2020

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

With gold demand suddenly having transformed the New York Commodities Exchange into a mechanism of physical delivery, disgorging more gold in a few months than it used to deliver in whole years, the TF Metals Report’s Craig Hemke today warns investors not to be distracted by daily events but to watch the main trend.

Hemke, writing at Sprott Money, advises: “Set yourself on a steady course of consistent accumulation of physical precious metal. Do not settle for unallocated accounts, and avoid the shares of exchange-traded funds like the GLD.”

Hemke’s analysis is headlined “Comex Delivery Update” and it’s posted at Sprott Money here:

https://www.sprottmoney.com/blog/COMEX-Delivery-Update-Craig-Hemke-Septe…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

The falling dollar is creating havoc across many markets

(Bloomberg/GATA)

Dethroned dollar is causing waves across markets, in five charts

 Section: 

By Cecile Gutscher and Anchalee Worrachate
Bloomberg News
Tuesday, September 15, 2020

The dethroning of the dollar from its pandemic supremacy is changing the trading game across stocks, emerging markets and commodities.

After a more than 10% fall since the March maelstrom, the U.S. currency is under pressure from surging risk appetite, falling inflation-adjusted interest rates, and even rising optimism in Europe.

… 

As the Federal Reserve this week gears up to maintain its dovish stance, a chorus on Wall Street is calling time on the greenback’s multi-year bull cycle.

 

With that in mind, here’s a cross-asset playbook for the world’s reserve currency. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-15/dethroned-dollar-is-m…

end

Judy Shelton is still short of the Senate votes needed to confirm her. One of the nut job Republicans against her is Mitt Romney.

(Litvan/Bloomberg)

Judy Shelton is still short of Senate votes needed for Fed spot

 Section: 

By Laura Litvan
Bloomberg News
Tuesday, September 15, 2020

Judy Shelton, President Donald Trump’s controversial nominee for the Federal Reserve board, doesn’t yet have enough support in the Republican-controlled Senate to win confirmation, said South Dakota Sen. John Thune, the chamber’s No. 2 Republican leader.

Shelton — who has drawn significant criticism for policy views outside the mainstream — remains a priority for the White House, Thune told reporters at the Capitol. Republican leaders will move forward on her nomination before the November election if she can gain the 51 votes needed, he said.

We’re still working it,” Thune said. “It’s the Federal Reserve, it’s important, so obviously we want to get it done. But we’re not going to bring it up until we have the votes to confirm her.” …

 

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-15/trump-s-fed-nominee-s…

end

The Sun weighs in on the fight for Judy Shelton

(New York Sun/GATA)

New York Sun: Time for Trump to fight for Judy Shelton

 Section: 

From The New York Sun
Tuesday, September 15, 2020

Sen. John Thune’s comments today suggesting that Judy Shelton lacks in the Senate the votes to be confirmed as a governor of the Federal Reserve certainly strike us as important.

The latest version of the story, carried by Bloomberg, quotes Mr. Thune, the Republican whip in the upper chamber, as saying, “We’re still working on it,” adding: “It’s the Federal Reserve. It’s important. So obviously we want to get it done.”

We take that as a signal, to the White House as well as to the Senate, that it’s not over. Bloomberg’s Laura Litvan reports that Ms. Shelton is a priority for the White House, which is as it should be.

 

Not only because Senators Mitt Romney and Susan Collins have said they’ll vote against Ms. Shelton but because Sens. Lamar Alexander and Lisa Murkowski reportedly have yet to decide. …

… For the remainder of the commentary:

https://www.nysun.com/editorials/time-for-trump-to-fight-for-shelton/912…

end

Gold mining profit margins are best ever now, Lassonde tells Kitco News

 Section: 

12:20a ET Wednesday, September 16, 2020

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Mining entrepreneur Pierre Lassonde, interviewed this week by David Lin of Kitco News, says gold mining profit margins are now the best they have ever been and likely will get better as the gold price increases and energy costs stay low.

While Lassonde often has been cautious in his gold price forecasts in the past, he could hardly be more bullish now, arguing that a gold price of $15,000 or even $20,000 an ounce is possible, along with a 1-to-1 gold-to-Dow ratio.

Whether central banks will permit that much success for gold was not discussed in the interview.

Lassonde also reflects on his long career with miner and then royalty company Franco-Nevada, which he co-founded and from whose board he recently resigned, and his new enterprise as a mining financier.

 

The interview is 33 minutes long and can be viewed at Kitco here:

https://www.kitco.com/news/2020-09-15/Pierre-Lassonde-on-20-000-gold-pri…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

iii) Other physical stories:

LAWRIE WILLIAMS: Lassonde preaches $15-20,000 gold price

Gold doyen Pierre Lassonde, now semi-retired, has had a remarkable track record in the gold space having co-founded Franco Nevada – the pre-eminent gold royalty company – and one time President of Newmont Mining, currently the world’s No.1 gold miner in terms of annual production. His views are definitely worth listening to and once again, in an interview with Kitco.com, he forecasts that the gold price could reach $15,000 or $20,000, although he does not put a date on when these sterling levels might be achievable. While we do not feel that gold will reach these exalted levels in the short to medium term, we do admit that in the ultra long term such peaks may be achievable.

Lassonde has, for many years, predicted that the gold price will eventually achieve parity with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (currently at around 28,000), suggesting a huge increase in the gold price coupled with a sharp reduction in the DJIA index. This is a pattern we would concur with, although something that could take several years to come about. Indeed if it does we suspect it will be a case of the DJIA Index coming back drastically which, in turn would likely lead to a huge boost in safe haven investment in gold and thus in the gold price itself. (Incidentally, should the gold price reach such an advanced level that would suggest a silver price of anything up to $250 – a target which would bring considerable heart to silver bulls.)

Indeed the Lassonde prediction on Dow and gold price parity seems more likely to this observer to come about with an apocalyptic crash in U.S. equities markets on perhaps a similar scale to that which happened during the Great Depression of 1929/1930s when the Dow lost over 89% over a 2-3 year period of market meltdowns. A similar fall could see parity achieved at around $3,000 an ounce, but U.S. investors will be praying that this doesn’t happen. Indeed even in our most pessimistic predictions on the Dow, we see this as unlikely, but not impossible!

Another point which came up in the Lassonde interview – and one which we would agree with wholeheartedly – is that the gold mining companies are currently achieving almost ‘unbelievable’ margins – even at the current gold price, and with the latter probably rising, these margins are likely to increase further. The position is further enhanced by low current energy prices. Lassonde believes that this will filter through in a resurrection of mineral exploration activity by gold juniors, but with the lead time from deposit discovery to new mine development, this is not likely to filter through to any increase in global gold production for many years to come.

Lassonde also reckons that the high margins, and thus higher profits, are likely to lead to growing acquisitions by the senior miners – and, we would add – lead to higher dividends which will also enhance the likely gains in gold mining stock prices.

So while we see Lassonde’s gold price predictions as being somewhat over-optimistic as far as the foreseeable future is concerned, perhaps they may be achievable in the ultra-long term, (say 10 years or more). In our view the theory that the gold price may move closer to parity with the Dow may be worth considering – but not necessarily at the kinds of levels Lassonde suggests. We do think the Dow may come down sharply given the continuing impact in the U.S. of the coronavirus pandemic and its continuing adverse effects on the nation’s economy. Currently some see the strengths in U.S. equity markets as being hugely over-egged, with the coronavirus effects on the economy leading to an enormous fall in corporate profits and equity valuations once the realisation truly sinks in. The growth in stock prices seems untenable in the face of what some have described as the worst disaster for the U.S. economy ever seen.

However, we see Lassonde’s overall view that gold prices are on the up as valid. It is only the size, and possibly the speed, of the likely uptick which we see as in doubt. His comments on the unbelievable margins being achieved by the gold mining companies are indeed accurate, though, as we have pointed out before, which makes investment in gold and gold equities as being a particularly good choice at the moment.

16 Sep 2020

-END-

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early WEDNESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 6.7595/ 

 

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.76585   /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 11.75 POINTS OR 0.36%

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 7.13 POINTS OR 0.03%

 

2. Nikkei closed UP 20.64 POINTS OR 0.09%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL RED/

 

 

 

USA dollar index DOWN TO 92.90/Euro RISES TO 1.1866

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: RISES TO. +.024/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 105.11/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//

 

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 39.12 and Brent: 41.36

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE UP/OFF- SHORE: UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO -.48%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 0.98% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.25%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.47: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 1.07

3k Gold at $1963.25 silver at: 27.30   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 20/100 in roubles/dollar) 74.81

3m oil into the 39 dollar handle for WTI and 41 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 105.11 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9062 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0754 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to 0.48%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 0.669% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 1.413%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 7.4943..

Futures Push Higher Ahead Of Fed Decision, Retail Sales

U.S equity futures and European stocks rose as investors awaited the decision of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting later Wednesday and the August retail sales report which was expected to show a modest growth slowdown. Treasuries were steady and the dollar slipped.

 

After a modest dip early in the session following news that Facebook is facing an antitrust lawsuit by the FTC as early as late this year, S&P futures rebounded and hit a session high of 3,418.25 before paring gains to a 0.3% rise, as investors hoped for a renewed dovish pledge by the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates low for a prolonged period, with upbeat quarterly results from FedEx also boosting sentiment. After dropping for two weeks in a row, the S&P 500 has rebounded 1.8% in the past two sessions, with defensive sectors including real estate and utilities among the biggest gainers.

FedEx soared 10% in premarket trading after reporting a bigger-than-expected quarterly profit, helped in part by price hikes and lower fuel costs. Shares in peer UPS gained 4.6%, while Robinhood darling Kodak soared over 50% after an internal legal review cleared the company of option trade improprieties. Apple rose 0.7%, after ending the previous session just marginally higher, as it rolled out a new virtual fitness service and a bundle of all its subscriptions, Apple One. Other tech-related stocks including Alphabet, Amazon.com, Tesla and Microsoft all gained between 0.6% and 1.0%.

Investors have been looking for catalysts to take markets higher after an impressive global recovery sputtered in the first half of September, with some hoping that Powell will deliver more Kool-aid by boosting its dovish stance after adopting a more relaxed approach on inflation last month. That’s helping to shore up sentiment in the face of risks ranging from U.S. presidential elections and the prospect of a no-deal Brexit.

“Central banks are far from out of ammunition,” Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management, wrote in a note to clients. “Investors should be positioned for the upside in equities.”

“The Fed may follow up by announcing some new easing steps in accordance with its new regime, though the general market consensus seems to be that it will adopt a wait and watch approach,” said Lee Hardman, a strategist at MUFG in London.

The Fed’s two-day meeting is its first under a newly adopted framework that promises to shoot for inflation above 2% to make up for periods where it is running below that target, in other words not to raise rates for a long, long time. The FOMC will release its policy statement and economic projections at 2 p.m. ET followed by Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s virtual news briefing half an hour later.

On the covid front, overnight President Trump said a vaccine shot for the coronavirus could be ready within four weeks. Separately, China’s top bio-safety scientist said one may be available for public use as early as November or December.

European stocks rose for a fourth day as Zara-owner Inditex posted a quarterly profit, although UK blue-chip stocks came under pressure after a surge in the previous session. The STOXX 600 index inched 0.3% higher, extending on its winning streak. Inditex said current trade showed a progressive return to normality with online sales growing sharply and store sales recovering, pushing its shares 6.3% higher, and helping lift the Stoxx retail sector 1.1%. Meanwhile, London’s FTSE100 was dragged lower by a weakness in the banking sector. A bright spot in the market was a 26.4% surge in shares of the Hut Group, the first major British initial public offering in seven years. Swiss plumbing materials company Geberit rose 1% after saying it would buy back shares worth up to 500 million Swiss francs ($551 million) over two years. Sweden’s Handelsbanken rose 2.6% after revealing plans to close almost half of its branches and cut about 1,000 jobs over the next two years.

Signs of compromise emerged on the Brexit front, with Reuters reporting that Britain offered tentative concessions on fisheries in trade talks with the European Union last week, just as London was threatening to breach the terms of its divorce deal with the bloc.

“The only catalyst that I can see for European equities is Brexit that could push markets one way or the other,” said Julien Lafargue, head of equity strategy at Barclays Private Bank. “Europe, in our mind, is a trading market. You want to buy Europe when everybody hates it, you want to sell it when everybody loves it. At this stage, we’re at a neutral.”

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks also gained, led by health care and communications. Markets in the region were mixed, with Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 and Taiwan’s Taiex Index rising, and Jakarta Composite and Shanghai Composite falling. The Topix gained 0.2%, with Shin Nippon Bio and Marusan Securities rising the most. The Shanghai Composite Index retreated 0.4%, with Zhenjiang New Energy and Beijing Dahao Technology posting the biggest slides.

In FX, the U.S. dollar fell across the board on Wednesday as expectations grew that the U.S. central bank may hint at more policy action, while the Chinese yuan vaulted to its highest level since May 2019. The Bloomberg Dollar Index extended its longest losing streak in a month with a fourth consecutive day of declines after China’s central bank raised the daily reference rate for the nation’s currency and amid a continued rally in risk assets. Investors have turned bullish on China, with the prospects for the world’s No. 2 economy improving on the back of strong retail sales and industrial output data. In offshore trade, the Chinese currency, which is on track for four straight months of gains, notched a fresh 16-month high, hitting 6.7536 per dollar. “People are starting to embrace a new theme, which is that China is managing much, much better than anyone else,” said Davis Hall, head of capital markets in Asia at Indosuez Wealth Management.

 

“The dollar got sold on last 3 FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) days so we continue with that pattern today”, noted Kenneth Broux, a strategist at Societe Generale. Trading could, however, easily and quickly shift soon after the statement, Commerzbank foreign exchange analyst Antje Praefcke warned via Reuters.

The Japanese yen also made significant gains during the session and touched levels not seen since the end of July, briefly going under 105 per dollar. The euro rose 0.27% to $1.1852. Sterling reversed earlier losses and rose 0.6% to $1.2995 in what would be its biggest daily rise in 2-1/2 weeks before a meeting of the Bank of England on Thursday, when policymakers may strike a downbeat assessment for the struggling economy.

In commodities, crude oil rose above $39 a barrel following a surprise drop in U.S. crude stockpiles.  Gold continued trading in a narrow range, last seen at $1,963/oz.

In addition to the Fed’s decision, investors are also awaiting retail sales data for August, due at 8:30 a.m. ET, with expectations of a reading of 1.0% compared with July’s figures of 1.2%.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.3% to 3,410
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.3% to 372.19
  • MXAP up 0.5% to 174.35
  • MXAPJ up 0.6% to 573.76
  • Nikkei up 0.09% to 23,475.53
  • Topix up 0.2% to 1,644.35
  • Hang Seng Index down 0.03% to 24,725.63
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.4% to 3,283.92
  • Sensex up 0.5% to 39,239.04
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 1% to 5,956.13
  • Kospi down 0.3% to 2,435.92
  • Brent Futures up 2.6% to $41.57/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.7% to $1,967.52
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.1% to 92.94
  • German 10Y yield fell 0.2 bps to -0.481%
  • Euro up 0.2% to $1.1867
  • Brent Futures up 2.6% to $41.57/bbl
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 2.2 bps to 0.793%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 1.0 bps to 0.261%

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • Federal Reserve officials are expected to project rates staying near zero though 2023, reinforcing the message delivered by Powell in late August that they will delay tightening policy to achieve inflation that averages 2% over time
  • Coronavirus vaccines will be ready for public use as early as November or December in China, a top scientist said, which would make the country one of the first in the world with an inoculation
  • The U.K. inflation rate fell to the lowest since 2015 last month, driven by government tax cuts and other stimulus designed to dig the economy out of the depth of the coronavirus crisis
  • Bank of England officials are expected to lay the groundwork this week for yet more monetary stimulus as optimism over the U.K.’s economic rebound from the coronavirus pandemic fizzles out
  • The European Union’s executive proposed toughening the bloc’s emissions targets in a move that’ll force industry to face stricter pollution standards. The bloc willsell 225 billion euros ($267 billion) of green bonds as part of its landmark recovery fund, a watershed moment for an expanding market
  • Japan’s parliament formally elected ruling party stalwart Yoshihide Suga — the 71-year-old son of a strawberry farmer — to be the country’s first new prime minister in almost eight years
  • Boris Johnson has held talks with rebels in the U.K.’s ruling Conservative Party in an attempt to win their backing for his controversial law rewriting part of the Brexit deal he struck with the European Union last year

A quick look at world markets courtesy of NewsSquawk

Asian equity markets traded mixed and only partially benefitted from the tech-led gains in US, with the region tentative heading into the upcoming flurry of central bank announcements beginning with the FOMC later today. ASX 200 (+1.0%) and Nikkei 225 (+0.1%) were positive with Australia buoyed as the tech and telecoms sectors found inspiration from the outperformance of their counterparts stateside, while the advances in Japan have been tempered by a firmer currency and mixed data which showed a surprise Trade Surplus and narrower than expected contraction to Exports, although Exports were still at a substantial decline and Imports missed to suggest a weak consumer profile. In addition, participants await incoming PM Suga’s inauguration and the conclusion of the BoJ’s 2-day policy meeting which kicks off today. Conversely, Hang Seng (U/C) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.4%) lagged after a neutral PBoC liquidity operation and ongoing US-China tensions following the WTO ruling that US tariffs on China violated trade rules, as the US have spoken against the WTO announcement and President Trump suggested he may do something about the WTO following the ruling, while it was also reported the US is to announce charges related to Chinese hacking and blacklisted a Chinese developer in Cambodia, amid allegations they built facilities on land seized from locals which could be used to host military assets. Finally, 10yr JGBs were flat with price action stuck near the 152.00 resistance level and amid the indecisive risk tone, while participants were also tentative as the BoJ begins its 2-day policy meeting.

Top Asian News

  • Japan’s Parliament Elects Yoshihide Suga as New Prime Minister
  • Singapore to Pay Citizens for Keeping Healthy With Apple Watch
  • Digital Money Thefts Deal Setback to Japan’s Cashless Drive
  • Stocks Rally to Revive Indian IPOs in Worst Year Since 2016

European cash bourses eke mild gains (Euro Stoxx 50 +0.1%) alongside US equity futures (ES +0.4%, NQ +0.4%, YM +0.4%) amidst a relatively light session thus far in terms of news flow, and in the run up the FOMC policy decision later today. Cash bourses are mostly higher with the exception of the FTSEs (FTSE 100 -0.1%, FTSE MIB -0.2%) whilst broad-based gains are experienced throughout the rest of the region. UK’s FTSE sees a number of large-cap mining names consolidating after yesterday’s firm performance. Sectors across Europe are mostly higher with no real risk profile to be derived. The retail sector leads the charge, with the likes of Inditex (+7.5%) and Salvatore Ferragamo (+8.9%) propping up the sector post-earnings, whilst the IT sector coat-tails on the Wall Street sector performance yesterday. In terms of individual movers, Lufthansa (-1.6%) share remain pressured as sources said the group could cut its fleet by 130 planes and cut further jobs, altogether equating to around 28k vs. Prev. indicated 26k, while separate reports said the Co. has cut its year-end flights guidance. Meanwhile, the main shareholders of Caixabank (+0.3%) and Bankia (+2.3%) have given the green light for a merger, with a meeting reportedly called for tomorrow to approve to approve the terms, according to sources.

Top European News

  • THG Shares Soar After $2.4 Billion IPO to Ride Online Boom
  • Sweden’s Biggest Bank Says Cost Cuts to Hit 1,000 Employees
  • Hitachi Abandons U.K. Nuclear Power Project in Blow to Industry
  • VW Follows Daimler in Making Green-Bond Debut for Electric Cars

In FX, it is hardly a surprise to see the Dollar mostly rangebound and the index recoil to its confines around the 93.000 axis that has been pivotal for a while, as many if not most currency market participants keep positions light in the run up to the FOMC. However, US retail sales data looms before the big event and often possesses the potential to surprise given a wide spread of forecasts either side of consensus for the headline number and key control group GDP component. For now, the DXY is holding within a 92.852-93.189 band as major counterparts largely respect recent support, resistance and round number or psychological levels.

  • AUD/NZD/NOK – Marginal outperformers on a combination of factors, including strength in underlying commodities and crude, while the Aussie has piggy-backed yet another firm PBoC CNY fix and the Kiwi is underpinned by better than expected Q2 current account balances and the NZ Government upgrading its 2020 GDP and unemployment rate projections. Aud/Usd and Nzd/Usd are consolidating above 0.7300 and 0.6700 respectively, as Eur/Nok retreats from close to 10.7200 through 10.6500.
  • JPY/EUR – Also firmer vs the Greenback, but the Yen and Euro are still waning ahead of 105.00 and 1.1900 amidst more decent option expiry interest, between 105.25-15 in Usd/Jpy (1.4 bn) and 1.1835-25 in Eur/Usd (1.1 bn), with the latter also wary about ECB insinuations regarding the strength of the single currency. Back to the Yen, next up the BoJ and in the interim mixed Japanese trade metrics and Suga approved by the lower house as new PM.
  • GBP/CHF/CAD/SEK – The Pound appears top heavy again above 1.2900 against the Buck and 0.9200 in Euro cross terms as the Brexit implications of the IMB continue to hamper Sterling in addition to formidable technical hurdles in Cable from 1.2933 to 1.2935 (200 WMA/Fib and 55 DMA) and some pre-BoE caution. Elsewhere, the Franc remains stuck in a 0.9100-0.9050 rut, like the Loonie between 1.3200-1.3150 awaiting independent direction from Canadian CPI and the Swedish Krona within 10.4320-10.4035 vs the Euro in wake of Sweden’s ESV fiscal watchdog revising its GDP forecast for this year to show less contraction than envisaged in June, as per other state and private entities.
  • EM – Apart from the ongoing appreciation of the Yuan and gains fuelled by the depressed Dollar/oil price rebound, pretty mundane midweek session trade awaiting Fed policy pronouncements, guidance, the SEP and chair Powell’s press conference. However, the Lira is still struggling to pare declines from record lows under threat of EU sanctions following a warning from the EP that a resolution to that effect will be on Thursday’s agenda.

In commodities, WTI and Brent front month futures are continuing the grind higher seen during the APAC session as the complex is underpinned by the large surprise drawdown in Private crude inventories (-9.5mln bbls vs. Exp. +1.3mln bbls) alongside developments in the Gulf of Mexico. Hurricane Sally has been upgraded to a Category 2 hurricane as it makes landfall, with the latest update noting that historic and life-threatening flooding is likely through Wednesday along and just inland of the Florida Panhandle. The BSEE estimated Hurricane Sally cut 26.9% of US gulf offshore oil production (prev. 21.4%) and Nat Gas shut off in the region is seen at 28.0% (prev. 25.3%), whilst refining activity is also closely watched due to its vulnerability to flooding, and as just under 54% of US capacity sits in PADD III in the Gulf Coast. Meanwhile, the JMMC gears up to meet tomorrow, with eyes on any commentary regarding oil prices and market outlook. Sources last week said the recent price decline has caused concern in Riyadh, however, not enough to induce panic, and Saudi is planning to keep production steady. “We are likely to see the group once again put pressure on those who are still producing above their quota levels to comply”, ING predicts, with reports also noting that OPEC+ compliance in August stood at 101%. Looking ahead, the weekly EIA crude stocks will be released at the usual time, with the headline expected to show a build of 1.271mln bbls. Elsewhere, precious metals benefit from the softer USD, with spot gold extending gains above USD 1950/oz having had tested the level to the downside in overnight trade. Spot silver holds its head above USD 27.00/oz after printing a base at USD 27.02/oz – with eyes turning to the FOMC decision. In terms of base metals, LME copper erased earlier losses with the aid of a weaker Dollar, whilst Dalian iron ore futures fell overnight amid falling steel margins in China dampening the demand outlook for the base metal.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Retail Sales Advance MoM, est. 1.0%, prior 1.2%
  • Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM, est. 1.0%, prior 1.9%
  • Retail Sales Control Group, est. 0.3%, prior 1.4%
  • 10am: Business Inventories, est. 0.1%, prior -1.1%
  • 10am: NAHB Housing Market Index, est. 78, prior 78
  • 2pm: FOMC Rate Decision
  • 4pm: Net Long-term TIC Flows, prior $113.0b; Total Net TIC Flows, prior $67.9b deficit

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Striking a chord today will be the Fed, who’ll be making their latest monetary policy announcement later. This is the FOMC’s first meeting since they released their revised Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy at Jackson Hole, in which they announced the move to a flexible average inflation target, thus allowing inflation to overshoot 2% following a period in which it’s been below target. There was also a change to the wording around their maximum employment objective, now saying that policy will be informed by its “assessments of the shortfalls of employment from its maximum level.” Though the change in the strategy opened the door to adjustments in forward guidance and asset purchases at this meeting, the communications from the Fed since then have signalled a lack of urgency on delivering meaningful changes to the policy stance. As a result, our US economists don’t think there’ll be any changes to the Fed’s forward guidance on interest rates, but do see the FOMC reframing their asset purchases as being focused on providing accommodation, rather than aiding market functioning. This meeting will also feature the release of the quarterly Summary of Economic Projections, which they think should reflect a meaningful upgrade to the near-term growth and inflation forecasts. On the dot plot, they think there’ll be continued unanimous support on holding the policy rate steady through 2021, with a firm majority still seeing the policy rate at the zero lower bound in 2023. See their full preview here.

Risk assets saw a solid overall performance yesterday ahead of the Fed’s decision, though US markets gave up about half their gains late in the session while remaining up on the day. The S&P 500 finished +0.52% higher for its 3rd consecutive daily advance, but was up as much as +1.1% midday. Tech stocks outperformed again, with the NASDAQ up +1.21%. The market dip from the peaks came around midday NY time, about the same time as a story reported a lack of consensus on US fiscal stimulus – more on that below.

Europe earlier saw solid gains, as the STOXX 600 closed up +0.66%. Banks underperformed on both sides of the Atlantic though and were the worst industries in their respective indices, with the STOXX Banks index down -1.49%, and the S&P 500 banks industry group down -2.48%. Meanwhile oil prices rebounded, with Brent Crude coming off its 3-month low thanks to a +2.32% advance – only the second daily gain in the last ten sessions.

Overnight one interesting story is that the US Federal Trade Commission, which has been investigating Facebook for more than a year over whether the social media giant has harmed competition, could file a case by the end of the year. The news report added however that no final decision has been made on this. Facebook is down -1.86% in overnight trading. Meanwhile, yesterday a Senate Judiciary panel laid out a case for how Google has used its dominance in search and digital advertising to benefit its products and harm competition. This comes ahead of preparations by the Justice Department to sue Google in coming weeks. This is all coming at a time when only 1 in 3 Americans are holding a positive view of Big Tech, as was highlighted by Apjit Walia from my team in a research piece earlier this month. He thinks they’ll come in for increased scrutiny post the election.

Asian markets are largely trading up outside of the Hang Seng (-0.24%) and Shanghai Comp (-0.24%) this morning. The Nikkei (+0.12%), Kospi (+0.27%) and Asx (+1.0%) are all higher along with S&P futures (+0.21%). In FX, the onshore Chinese yuan is up a further +0.15% to 6.7728. Brent crude oil prices are up +1.68% to $41.21. As we go to print, Yoshihide Suga has been elected Japan’s new prime minister by the lower house.

There hasn’t been a great deal of new news on the coronavirus over the last 24 hours, though we did hear from President Trump, who said in a Fox & Friends interview yesterday that “We’re going to have a vaccine in a matter of weeks”. He has doubled down overnight saying that the one would be ready within 3 to 4 weeks. This is going to be an interesting dynamic given there are just seven weeks to the election. The President’s interview came just prior to reports that researchers monitoring the Pfizer vaccine have reported no safety issues after 12,000 patients received a second of two doses. Staying on a vaccine, we also heard from the head of Germany’s vaccine regulator that the first approvals could be granted at the end of this year or early next year. Our latest Exit Strategy Tracker contains the latest on vaccine developments so please see it here.

In terms of case numbers, Western Europe remains a source of concern, with the entire Irish cabinet going into self-isolation yesterday after their Health Minister Donnelly had been tested. Dublin has closed all bars that do not serve food and has asked residents to not have visitors from more than one home come to their house. Elsewhere, both Spain and the UK’s case numbers remained above 3,000, and in Italy a further 1,229 were reported. Here in the UK, the government acknowledged the strain in the country’s testing ability with Health Secretary Hancock telling the House of Commons, “we have seen a sharp rise in the numbers coming forward for a test… we will be able to solve this problem in a matter of weeks.” In the US there were over 50,000 new cases yesterday compared to 26,000 new cases last Tuesday. Summer virus hot spots continue to cool off though, with California and the Houston-area of Texas posting their lowest positivity rates on data going back to April. Elsewhere, confirmed cases in India have reached the 5 million mark as the country is now topping 90k new cases almost on a daily basis. Furthermore, as per Bloomberg, the official counts of confirmed cases and deaths are marred by underreporting and inadequate testing.

While we will hear about any changes to the US monetary policy in a few hours, don’t hold your breath when it comes to fiscal. Congressional leaders met again yesterday to discuss. A follow on stimulus bill has been discussed since July with both parties remaining quite far apart. Yesterday, we heard from White house advisor and the President’s son-in-law Jared Kushner that an agreement may not come until after the election, while Speaker Pelosi threatened to keep the House in session until another fiscal deal is done. Lawmakers in the House are currently expected to recess on 2 October in order to campaign ahead of the 3 November elections. A bipartisan group of 50 lawmakers in the House put a $1.5 trillion bill on the floor that aimed at being a middle ground for both parties with elements of both parties’ original salvos, however leading members in both parties have already said it was both not enough and too much respectively. The concern continues to be that the proximity to the election is causing an apparent lack of political incentive of either side to act.

While this was going on, Sovereign bonds had a mixed performance yesterday ahead of the Fed, with 10yr Treasury yields up +0.7bps, having closed within a 4bps range over the last week. Bund yields were also up but just +0.1bps, though gilts underperformed once again, as 10yr yields rose +2.3bps. Over in commodities, platinum had another strong performance, rising +1.62% for a 5th straight session, while copper fell -0.11% as it came down from its 2-year high the previous day.

Looking at yesterday’s data, US industrial production rose by a below-consensus +0.4% in August (vs. +1.0% expected), though July’s reading was revised up half a percentage point to +3.5%. Meanwhile capacity utilisation rose to 71.4% in August, which is noticeably higher than the 64.1% in April, but still down from the 76.9% back in February. We also got the Empire State manufacturing survey, which rose to 17.0 (vs. 6.9 expected). Here in the UK, the unemployment rate in the 3 months to July rose to 4.1% as expected, which is the first time the jobless rate has been above 4% since October 2018. In addition, the more up-to-date estimates for August 2020 from Pay As You Earn Real Time Information showed the number of payroll employees was down by -695k (or -2.4%) compared with March 2020. Finally, the ZEW survey from Germany showed investor expectations rose to 77.4 in September (vs. 69.5 expected).

To the day ahead now, and the aforementioned Federal Reserve decision will be the highlight of the day for investors. This morning there’s also European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s State of the Union address. Otherwise, we’ll also hear from the ECB’s Hernandez de Cos and Holzmann, and can expect a monetary policy decision from the Brazilian central bank. Data releases from Europe include UK CPI for August and the Euro Area trade balance for July, while the US releases include August retail sales and the September NAHB housing market index.

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)WEDNESDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 11.75 POINTS OR 0.36%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 7.13 POINTS OR 0.03%   /The Nikkei closed up 20.64 POINTS OR 0.09%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 1.11%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.75956 /Oil UP TO 39.12 dollars per barrel for WTI and 41.36 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 6.7595 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.7585 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED//CORONAVIRUS//PANDEMIC//  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 C CHINA

USA issues a sweeping travel warning to both Mainland China and Hong Kong stating you have a arbitrary detention and prolonged interrogations

(zerohedge)

US Issues Sweeping Travel Warning For China & HK: “Arbitrary Detention & Prolonged Interrogations”

In the latest move taking aim at China over the Hong Kong national security law, and part of the broader tit-for-tat being waged between diplomats, the Trump administration is again telling American citizens they are at risk of “arbitrary detention” and “arbitrary enforcement of local laws” if they travel to Hong Kong or mainland China.

A newly updated State Department advisory warns that China imposes “arbitrary detention and exit bans” in order to compel cooperation with investigations in order to “gain bargaining leverage over foreign governments,” as well as pressure Chinese nationals abroad to return.

 

AP image

The advisory states further: “U.S. citizens traveling or residing in the [People’s Republic of China] or Hong Kong, may be detained without access to U.S. consular services or information about their alleged crime. U.S. citizens may be subjected to prolonged interrogations and extended detention without due process of law.”

China “unilaterally and arbitrarily exercises police and security power in Hong Kong” it says of the semi-autonomous city-state. It warns that US citizens are “strongly cautioned to be aware of their surroundings and avoid demonstrations.”

However, following the worst of the coronavirus pandemic appearing to be long gone in China, with the United States now for months being the global epicenter, the State Department reduced its travel advisory for China from level 4 (or “Do not travel”) to a less ominous level 3 (or “reconsider travel”).

The Chinese foreign ministry slammed the new advisory on Tuesday, calling it “unwarranted political manipulation”. Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin said, “China has always protected the safety and legal rights of foreigners in China in accordance with law. China is one of the safest countries in the world.”

“Of course, foreigners in China also have an obligation to abide by Chinese laws,” he added.

Recently a couple of high profile Australian citizens, one of which works as a television anchor for a Chinese state news agency, were detained in China have had little to no access to lawyers or outside communications.

END

The silenced Chinese virologist tells Tucker Carlson that the COVID 19 was intentionally released and man made

(zerohedge/Tucker Carlson)

“I Am The Target”: Silenced Chinese Virologist Tells Tucker COVID-19 Intentionally Released, CCP Trying To ‘Disappear’ Her

Hours after her unceremonious Twitter ban for, we assume, presenting evidence that SARS-CoV-2 was created in a Wuhan lab, Chinese virologist Dr. Li-Meng Yan appeared on “Tucker Carlson Tonight,” where she told the Fox News host that the virus is a “Frankenstein” which was designed to target humans which was intentionally released.

“It could never come from nature,” she Yan – an MD/PhD who worked with coronavirus at the University of Hong Kong

There is evidence left in the genome” – which Yan detailed in a 26-page scientific paper co-written with three other Chinese scientists. “They don’t want people to know this truth. Also, that’s why I get suspended [from Twitter], I get suppression. I am the target that the Chinese Communist Party wants disappeared.”

When Carlson asked her why she believes the virus made it’s way out of the Wuhan lab, Dr. Yan said “I worked in the WHO reference lab, which is the top coronavirus lab in the world at the university of Hong Kong. And the things I got deeply into such investigation in secret from the early beginning of this outbreak – I had my intelligence through my network in China, involved in the hospitals, institutes and also government.

“Together with my experience, I can tell you – this is created in a lab.

Watch:

Dr. Yan fled Hong Kong on April 28 on a Cathay Pacific flight to the United States. She believes her life is in danger, and that she can never go back home.

“The reason I came to the U.S. is because I deliver the message of the truth of COVID,” Yan told Fox News in July.

As we reported at the time:

Yan said that discussion between colleagues in China about the disease took a sharp turn after “doctors and researchers who had been openly discussing the virus suddenly clammed up.” Contacts in Wuhan went completely dark and others warned not to ask them about the virus – telling Yan “We can’t talk about it, but we need to wear masks.”

“There are many, many patients who don’t get treatment on time and diagnosis on time,” said Yan, adding “Hospital doctors are scared, but they cannot talk. CDC staff are scared.

She said she reported her findings to her supervisor again on Jan. 16 but that’s when he allegedly told her “to keep silent, and be careful.”

As he warned me before, ‘Don’t touch the red line,'” Yan said referring to the government. “We will get in trouble and we’ll be disappeared.”

She also claims the co-director of a WHO-affiliated lab, Professor Malik Peiris, knew but didn’t do anything about it.

Peiris also did not respond to requests for comment. The WHO website lists Peiris as an “adviser” on the WHO International Health Regulations Emergency Committee for Pneumonia due to the Novel Coronavirus 2019-nCoV.

Yan was frustrated, but not surprised –Fox News

WHO denies that Professor Malik Peiris directly works for the organization, telling Fox in a statement “Professor Malik Peiris is an infectious disease expert who has been on WHO missions and expert groups – as are many people eminent in their fields,” adding “That does not make him a WHO staff member, nor does he represent WHO.”

Read the rest of the report here.

END

Facebook Censors Tucker Carlson’s Interview With “Rogue” Chinese Scientist

After “rogue” Chinese scientist Dr. Li-Meng Yan was silenced by Twitter yesterday over her claims that the coronavirs was “created in a lab”, Tucker Carlson had her on his show last night to try and give her message – which has been condemned as fraudulent by the press – a broader airing.

After telling Tucker and his audience that the CCP is trying to “disappear” her, Dr. Mong said SARS-CoV-2 was a “frankenvirus” designed to target humans, and that it was “intentionally released.”

“It could never comes from nature,” she said, at one point, referring to COVID-19. Of course, the mainstream press reports that there’s no evidence to suggest that the virus was cooked up in a lab. They insist that science has established the “official story” (zoonotic transmission, the same route most deadly viruses attack humans), and that anything questioning that narrative is dangerous propaganda released by foreign adversaries and Trump-aligned media.

After Tucker’s social media managers shared a clip from Tuesday night’s show, however, Facebook immediately jumped on the censorship bandwagon, blocking the clip and imposing a label reading “false info”

In the face of growing popular backlash and antitrust scrutiny, Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg has largely caved to critics on the left insisting that Facebook was facilitating the downfall of democracy by allowing for the spread of dangerous lies and “false” – some might say “unproven” – rumors. The company recently said it would bar new election ads during the final week of the campaign to prevent a last-minute devolution into brutal mudslinging.

A similar post shared on the show’s Facebook page, with more than 2.5 million followers, was also censored.

Both posts remain up as of Wednesday afternoon.

 

END

CFIUS supposedly approves the TikTok//Oracle deal despite ByteDance majority ownership. Now it is up to the Trump to approve

(zerohedge)

CFIUS Reportedly Approves TikTok-Oracle Deal Amid Backlash Over ByteDance Majority Ownership

Fox Business senior correspondent Charles Gasparino just reported that CFIUS “has approved or will approve” the revamped TikTok-Oracle deal.

However, infighting continues over ByteDance retaining majority ownership of the new US-based company, even though Oracle will reportedly handle all of the video hosting and traffic.

Oracle shares dipped briefly into the red on the news, indicating a reasonably high degree of market confidence in the news.

end

Marco Rubio Sends Letter To Trump Demanding White House Scrap TikTok Deal

Former Republican presidential contender (and a potential future president) Marco Rubio has sent a letter to the Trump Administration urging it to reject the proposed Oracle-TikTok deal, which would leave TikTok as an independent, US-based company, because ByteDance, TikTok’s parent, will retain a majority stake.

Rubio is apparently leading a group of GOP senators in the effort.

The letter is the latest sign that opposition to the deal is growing in the GOP-controlled Senate. Rubio’s letter follows a similar letter sent by his colleague Josh Hawley, another China hawk, who is concerned the company won’t face nearly enough scrutiny. Hawley is advocating for a “clean break” between ByteDance and TikTok, something Beijing would, in all likelihood, never allow.

According to Reuters, Rubio’s letter specifically questioned whether Oracle’s workarounds would be successful at safeguarding user data, and that “serious questions” remain. The letter is addressed to President Trump. The White House hasn’t yet commented, but Trump has said he’s happy with the deal, and is “a fan” of Oracle founder Larry Ellison.

Hawley also put forth a bill barring TikTok from being installed on all devices issued to federal employees.

Earlier, Fox Business reported that CFIUS has either approved, or had decided to approve, the TikTok deal, though the official word isn’t yet in, and a last-minute lobbying effort to sabotage the deal, which has already been moderately restructured once.

END

Late in the day:

(zerohedge)

Not So Fast: TikTok-Oracle Deal “Falls Short Of Resolving Concerns”, CFIUS Approval Suddenly In Doubt

Hours after former presidential candidate Marco Rubio came out against the new TikTok-Oracle deal, which would spin off TikTok into a US-headquartered independent company majority owned by ByteDance, with Oracle holding a major stake and a contract to supervise the hosting and back-end technology while ByteDance continues to manage TikTok “at arm’s length.”

Earlier, a senior reporter from Fox Business said the deal was on track to be approved by CFIUS, the Commerce Department board that reviews deals for national-security concerns. After their initial proposal faced pushback, Oracle and ByteDance worked with the administration to devise the new deal, which was unveiled on Monday. Despite some complaints about ByteDance retaining majority control, the deal appeared set to sail through.

However, Marco Rubio came out against the deal a few hours ago. Now, Bloomberg is reporting that the deal is now facing opposition from a group of GOP senators led by Rubio , a group who have presumably been lobbying CFIUS and Trump.

Per Bloomberg, several high-ranking officials, including Secretary of State Michael Pompeo, are now concerned that after a potential transaction, TikTok’s Chinese owner, ByteDance could still access user data from its 100 million or so users in the US, its sources claimed.

Oracle Corp.’s bid for TikTok falls short of resolving concerns of Trump administration officials that the Chinese-owned video-sharing app poses a risk to U.S. national security, according to people familiar with the matter. President Donald Trump has the authority to sign off on a deal, but continuing concerns from national security officials could sway his decision. The agreement remains on the table, with discussions continuing between administration officials and the companies, said the people, who asked not to be named because the talks are confidential. Addressing those remaining issues could pave the way for U.S. approval, the people said.

Many remain wary of the new ownership structure, which Rubio and Sen Josh Hawley have criticized for ceding too much control to ByteDance, Of course, anything less would likely be unpalatable for Beijing.

Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and AG Barr are also examining the deal. Both have some say in the final decision, since both of their departments are part of CFIUS. While Mnuchin has reportedly reviewed the deal, Barr hasn’t yet had the time. Officials first expressed their doubts to CFIUS Tuesday night, and the committee is expected to meet again on Wednesday.

We’re still waiting on the final word from CFIUS, but if the past is any guide, a rejection would no longer come as a surprise.

end

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

 

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

IRAN/RUSSIA/CHINA//USA

Pompeo Vows US Will Never Let Iran Acquire Russian & Chinese Weapons

Weeks ago the United States lost its bid to get the UN Security Council to extend the international arms embargo on Iran, which is set to expire October 18.

And now on Tuesday Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is vowing to never let Iran acquire Chinese and Russian weapons, but it remains unclear precisely how he hopes to make this happen.

Pompeo said during an interview with European radio broadcaster “France Inter” on Tuesday that “Nothing has been done so far to enable the extension of this ban, and therefore the United States assumed its responsibilities.” He’s of course referencing the fact that the Europeans have by and large sought to uphold the terms of the 2015 nuclear deal, or JCPOA.

 

Russian anti-air defense systems, file image via Tehran Times.

Pompeo added:

“We will act in this manner. We will prevent Iran from acquiring Chinese tanks and Russian air defense systems, and after that, selling weapons to Hezbollah undermines the efforts of French President Emmanuel Macron in Lebanon.”

Washington has stood isolated over its decision to enact so-called “snapback” sanctions on the Islamic Republic in late August.

Ironically the snapback option is available to participants in the JCPOA, which the US formally withdrew from in May 2018.

Meanwhile, over the past year there’s been talk of Moscow actually supplying Iran with its advanced S-400 anti-air defense system, something which the Trump administration might almost treat as an act of war.

Interestingly, on the very day Pompeo made is new statements vowing to never let Russian weapons come into Iran’s hands, the Kremlin was busy show off the S-400’s capabilities.

In response, Trump vowed that any such aggression out of Iran would be met with an American response “1,000 times greater in magnitude!” However, Trump did not exactly confirm the alleged plot, instead he merely cited “press reports” suggesting that it may be true.

END

6.Global Issues

This is big: Univ. of Pittsburgh has isolated the coronavirus antibody which will no doubt lead to new treatments

(zerohedge)

Scientists Isolate Coronavirus Antibody In Breakthrough That Could Lead To New Treatment

In the latest scientific triumph to offer new insights into the immune system’s response to the coronavirus that’s on the cusp of sickening more than 30 million people worldwide, a team at the University of Pittsburgh has successfully isolated an “antibody component” to the virus in a breakthrough that, scientists say, could be used in a new therapeutic.

The University of Pittsburgh announced in a press release that students from its medical school had isolated the smallest biological molecule yet that “completely and specifically neutralizes” SARS-CoV-2.

According to the release, the antibody component, which is 10x smaller than a full-sized antibody, has been used to construct a drug – known as Ab8 – that will potentially be use as a therapeutic and prophylactic against the virus.

Findings from the study were published Tuesday in the journal Cell. In the abstract, the scientists said that the “Bivalent V-sub-H” showed a “high affinity” to bind to the cells of hamsters, preventing them from infection with SARS-CoV-2.

The finding could help Ab8 become a powerful therapeutic for COVID-19, as the administration takes heat for its unbridled – and, as some argued, premature – support for convalescent plasma, the world is looking for the next “hot” experimental therapeutic.

“Ab8 not only has potential as therapy for COVID-19, but it also could be used to keep people from getting SARS-CoV-2 infections,” said co-author John Mellors, chief of the Division of Infectious Diseases at Pitt and UPMC. “Antibodies of larger size have worked against other infectious diseases and have been well tolerated, giving us hope that it could be an effective treatment for patients with COVID-19 and for protection of those who have never had the infection and are not immune.”

Read the “pre-proofed” report from Cell below:

Pi is 009286742031148 x by Zerohedge on Scribd

end

Michael Every..on the days big events..

(zerohedge)

Rabobank: Is It Totally Crazy To Ask If Social Media Is Trying To Influence The Electorate

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Exacerbation

Bill Gates was in the press this week stressing “mutually exacerbating catastrophes” that threaten global health: “In the blink of an eye, a health crisis became an economic crisis, a food crisis, a housing crisis, a political crisis. Everything collided with everything else,” he argued.

Gates then leveled some valid criticisms at the US virus response…and then put wind in the sails of those who believe the FDA could be biased in its decision to approve a Covid-19 vaccine: that, as surveys show that a majority in the US are concerned vaccine development is being rushed, and a third say they won’t get vaccinated. Wouldn’t a low vaccine take-up rate risk exacerbating all the exacerbating that is already underway? On many fronts, however, we are not short of exacerbation.

The WTO yesterday ruled that the US imposition of tariffs on China violate international rules. This will have several effects, none of which will be the US removing the tariffs under a Trump presidency. One will be to lodge an appeal, and given that the US has frozen the WTO’s appellate system to hear said appeals, it means the tariffs stay, underlining the WHO is now just a talking shop; another will likely be the WTO being red meat for Trump in his re-election campaign, or maybe even risk it following the fate of the WHO.

The US just removed 10% aluminium tariffs from Canada, however, so there will be some good news in Free-Trade Weekly this week, apart from the economic normalisation between Israel, the UAE, and Bahrain (with 5-6 other countries flagged to join the accord soon), and between Serbia and Kosovo.

In the UK, PM Johnson is still dealing with party rebels trying to prevent him pushing ahead with legislation deemed contrary to international law – though the government now says it isn’t after having earlier said it is. Tricky stuff, this international law business. There you are, minding your own business, and suddenly *BANG!*, “international law breaker”.

Latest news is the Internal Market Bill may be amended to give Parliament a say on triggering the most controversial clause: if so, and paraphrasing Johnson’s own recent paraphrasing of Chekhov, that would leave the gun on the table in this First Act rather than pointing it at the EU directly. The EU have meanwhile not helped by apparently declaring that, yes, it may be forced to ban all British exports of live animals and animal products such as cheese, beef, eggs, chicken and lamb from 1 January. It’s not quite The Sun screaming “EU Marmite Pirates!”, but it still has one pulling one’s (Black or Blue) beard.

Yet most important today is the FOMC meeting. We have written plenty for many years, and again of late, pointing out that even with all the best of intentions –which is being very generous of spirit– central banks are arguably part of the problem and not part of the solution. Their actions exacerbate the socio-economic and financial imbalances we see all round us. Or, rather, they can’t be part of the solution until an entirely new political “-ism” that explains how we run our political economies, and why, is laid out, part of which will be their Magical Money Trees.

(On which, consider the proposed changes to how Bank Indonesia operates its monetary policy, and its debt monetization, and the same trend emerging in the Philippines: neither were economies we flagged as being able to sustain MMT in our analysis of it. This looks a poor portent for EM FX ahead, as it usually is when “-isms” and EM mix in the headlines.)

Today, however, the Fed lay out their plan of action within the new framework mouse of a policy they produced in August after so much laboring. (Which is about as near as ‘labor’ gets to the Fed: which is why we have the problems we do.)

To reiterate, the inflation they cannot generate will now be measured over the medium term, which effectively means they will have nothing to do for years as they fail to see inflation rise: just look to Japan, where a new Suga Daddy is taking over stewardship of the Good Ship Structural Deflation. Or Europe. The market expectation is that the Fed’s new ‘dot plot’ forward guidance will be prepared to flag rates on hold until well into 2023. That sounds decidedly optimistic. Why not 2025? So let’s see what Powell says today: be still, my beating heart.

The argument is then between those who think the Fed watching the weeds grow waiting for inflation to sprout is bullish EM FX, and those who think the fact that the Fed is having to do that means that EM central banks will be diving in with debt monetisation, which is very bearish.

Therein still lies some kind of market. Until they ban or suppress it.

But back to another key set of exacerbators: social media, on which there are several stories today. One is a different story that cannot be told because a key social media platform has banned it (acting as a “Gates Keeper”, if one will), which has then become the story. Another is that Facebook has been warned of a potential antitrust probe that may be filed by year-end. Recall Google is already facing something similar. Given there is an election coming up, if one had not noticed, and that major antitrust probes can often appear or disappear after a new US administration takes office, might it be a totally crazy question to ask if social media might (and dare one even think it?!) have its own political bias and agendaor that it might even try to influence or lobby individual politicians, or the electorate?

No, that is clearly unthinkable. All news stories are accurate and social media always does its best to provide every user with as broad a range of stories from across the political spectrum as possible so that everyone can weigh and balance each development carefully in its proper context. We have truly efficient media.

In the same way we have efficient markets, stewarded by central banks.

end

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

CORONAVIRUS UPDATE INDIA/THE GLOBE/

India Tops 5 Million COVID-19 Cases; Virus Killed 121 American Youths, CDC Reports: Live Updates

Summary:

  • India tops 5 million cases
  • JHU count: 29,607,590
  • Global death toll: 935,871
  • India strikes deal with Russia for 100MN doses of “Sputnik V”
  • London may face “localized” lockdown
  • OECD says global economic slump not as bad as previously feared
  • US tops 195k deaths
  • CDC warns COVID killed 121 people under the age of 21 across the US

* * *

The international march toward 30 million coronavirus cases continued Wednesday morning, driven by what at first appeared to be a record jump in new COVID-19 cases. According to data from Johns Hopkins University, the world recorded 380,492 new cases in a single day, far beyond the previous global record of roughly 320k new cases recorded last week.

However, JHU added roughly 100k Indian cases to that country’s daily tally on Wednesday, likely reflecting older cases that are just being added to the total.

In any case, the latest batch of cases brought the global total to 29,607,590 as of Wednesday morning.

More ominously, the number of COVID-related deaths recorded around the world also jumped yesterday, with 7,737 new deaths reported, bringing the global death toll to 935,871. It was the largest daily death toll since Sept. 7.

The surge was largely driven by India, which reported a staggering 173,932 new cases yesterday, pushing its total past 5 million to 5,020,359, though some of those cases counted by JHU are likely old. Indian officials only reported 90,123 new cases over the last 24 hours, which is below the record numbers seen earlier this month.

JHU also recorded 2,344 deaths in India for Wednesday, bringing the country’s total to 82,066, though it looks like some of these deaths were old, and only just being added to the tally.

India’s caseload is finally closing in on the US, which has reported 6.6 million cases. Though the US outbreak has largely slowed from its peak, while India’s has only climbed as the government embarks on a mass-testing campaign. Al Jazeera has a chart showing how the virus is spreading across the world’s second-most-populous nation.

Source: AJ

While things look bad, the situation in India is much better than these headline numbers suggest. India’s COVID-19 fatality rate is 1.6%, well below the 3% levels seen in the US and Brazil. Though the virus has been accelerating in rural parts of the country where health-care resources are more scarce.

In other news, Russia’s sovereign wealth fund announced a new agreement on Wednesday to sell 100 million doses of the Sputnik-V vaccine to an Indian drug company, the first major vaccine deal in India.

As European leaders in London, Paris and Madrid have insisted that they won’t return to a nationwide lockdowns from the spring, they’re emphasizing that a more localized approach could be more effective at stamping out the virus. Well, Londoners might soon find themselves cooped up in their apartments and homes again as HMG mulls another lockdown amid a resurgence in new cases, according to The Evening Standard. The paper cited the director of the London public health unit. “It might be local curfews so you’re not out drinking until the wee hours of the morning,” Kevin Fenton, London director of Public Health England, reportedly said.

India crossed a major milestone on Wednesday after reporting another

In other news, yesterday, Chinese state news media reported, citing Dr. Wu Guizhen, head of biosafety at the Chinese CDC, that ordinary Chinese people could be given the vaccine in November or December.

China currently has five vaccine candidates in late-stage clinical trials. The country is also the world’s biggest vaccine producer and has already granted emergency-use authorization to at least two experimental vaccines and started inoculating frontline workers. Officials in China’s customs agency just suspended poultry imports from a second US plant over COVID-19 fears, after the plant reported an outbreak among employees.

Finally, in its latest update, the CDC advised that the global slump likely won’t be as sharp as previously feared. The global economy is on pace to shrink 4.5% this year, less than the 6% forecast in June, the Paris-based NGO said Wednesday. The US, EU and China alll saw substantial upgrades to growth expectations, but China is the only country that’s expected to return to growth this year.

However, the hoped-for ‘V-shaped’ recovery is simply “not going to happen,” according to OECD Secretary General Angel Gurria. He also warned governments not to “take away the support” – both monetary and fiscal – “too fast”.

In the US, the global case total hit 6,606,561 as of early Wednesday morning, while total deaths were at 195,942, cracking above 195k, and leaving the US on track to top 200k deaths – the first country to do so – within a week.

The CDC late Tuesday issued a new report which showed that at least 121 Americans under the age of 21 succumbed to the virus between February and July 31. Of these young people, roughly 3 in 4 were either Hispanic, black or Native American/Alaskan. The agency said the findings should encourage schools to “carefully monitor infections of those with underlying health conditions.”

END

 

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings WEDNESDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1866 UP .0025 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS//CORONAVIRUS//PANDEMIC// /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /ALL RED

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 105.11 DOWN 0.289 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2970   UP   0.0088  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/

 

USA/CAN 1.3168 DOWN .0026 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  TUESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE BY 24 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.1866 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 11.75 POINTS OR 0.36% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 7.13 POINTS OR 0.03%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 1.11%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 7,13 POINTS OR 0.03%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 11.75 POINTS OR 0.36%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP 1.11% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 20,64  POINTS OR 0.09%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1962.80

silver:$27.30-

Early WEDNESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 0.669% !!! DOWN 1 IN POINTS from TUESDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 1.413 DOWN 1  IN BASIS POINTS from TUESDAY night.

USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 92.90 DOWN 15 CENT(S) from  TUESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers WEDNESDAY MORNING

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And now your closing  WEDNESDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.28% DOWN 1 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +02%  DOWN 0   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.27%//DOWN 1 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:0.98 UP 3 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 61 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.48% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.46% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR WEDNESDAY

Closing currency crosses for WEDNESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.11836  DOWN     .0006 or 6 basis points

USA/Japan: 104.93 DOWN .466 OR YEN UP 47  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2978 UP .0095 POUND UP 95  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar UP 29 basis points to 1.3165

 

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The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 6.7548    ON SHORE  (UP)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.7539  (YUAN UP)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  7.5045 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at+.02%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 1 IN basis points from TUESDAY at 0.67 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 21.416 DOWN 2 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 92.99 DOWN 6  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for WEDNESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 27.06  0.44%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 37.70 POINTS OR .29%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 6.49 POINTS 0.13%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 74.80 POINTS or 1.06%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 7.04 POINTS OR 0.04%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 39.70 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 42.14 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE RISES:    74.83  THE CROSS LOWER BY 0.18 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE HIGHER BY 18 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.48 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  40.13//

 

 

BRENT :  42.25

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 0.690…up one basis point

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD:  1.451 up 2 basis points:.

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.1799 ( DOWN 43   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:105.00 DOWN .406 (YEN UP 41 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 93.23 UP 18 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.2961 UP 78  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 7.5079

 

 

the Russian rouble 75.08   DOWN 0.08 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( DOWN 8 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.31800 UP 15 BASIS pts

 

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.48%

 

The Dow closed UP 38.17 POINTS OR 0.14%

 

NASDAQ closed DOWN 139.86 POINTS OR 1.25%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  25.53 CLOSED DOWN .06

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 0.231%//libor dropping like a stone

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

Stocks Pump’n’Dump On Fed Financial Stability Fears

Lower (rates) for longer (at least 2024) but inflation, growth, and rate projections are all inconsistent. As Peter Boockvar at Bleakley Advisory Group points out the committee cut its 2021 GDP forecast to 4% from 5%, while at the same time lowering forecasts for the unemployment rate to 5.5% from 6.5% and raising core PCE estimates to 1.7% from 1.5%.

“No color on the inconsistency,” says Boockvar.

“They somehow think that the longer-run fed funds rate should be 2.5% but they have no intentions on trying to get there for the next 3 years, even if we get a vaccine, which we know is the main reason why we’re in the circumstances we are in.”

Stocks didn’t care – they just rallied (while everything else largely shrugged) and everything was looking good… until Powell was asked about financial stability (in other words – bubbles):

“Monetary policy should not be the first line of defense,” Powell says, noting regulatory tools should be the first line.

“We always leave open the idea that we will not ignore those kinds of risks.

Powell was pressed further as to whether such bubble concerns could prompt a rate hike. Powell said that the majority of the FOMC would need to have concluded that the monetary stance was fostering financial instability.. but the market did not like that and stocks were slammed lower…

 

Did the market just warn Powell not to “meddle with the primary forces of nature…money!”…

Overall, from the FOMC statement drop, the dollar is modestly higher and big tech stocks worst…

 

Nasdaq has tumbled to its lowest relative to Small Caps in almost a month…

 

Source: Bloomberg

 

 

Treasury yields moved marginally higher (10Y +1bps)…

 

Source: Bloomberg

But short-term markets remain convinced there will be no rate hike until mid-2024…

 

Source: Bloomberg

FX markets were largely clueless with the dollar whipping around all over the place…

 

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin surged back above $11,000…

 

Source: Bloomberg

WTI topped $40 after a surprise crude draw…

 

 

Gold was unchanged on the day…

 

 

Finally, this won’t end well…

Source: Bloomberg

And as Bloomberg notes, this year’s gap between the S&P 500 Index’s best- and worst-performing industry groups is unusually wide. Technology stocks climbed 27% to rank first among the S&P 500’s 11 sectors as of Tuesday, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Energy was last with a 47% loss.

The differential of 74 percentage points between them was the widest through Sept. 15 for any two sectors since 2000. Back then, utility stocks led the way and raw-material producers trailed as a bear market got underway.

Source: Bloomberg

END

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/FOMC/USA

FOMC Signals Rates Unchanged Through At Least 2023 Despite GDP Forecast Upgrade; Kaplan, Kashkari Dissent

Since the last FOMC statement on July 29th, stocks have been in a world of their own (outperforming) while gold, bonds, and the dollar have shown only modest moves…

Source: Bloomberg

10Y Yields are up around 10bps since The Fed promised to do more of whatever it takes…

Source: Bloomberg

Real yields are notably lower…

Source: Bloomberg

On the macro side, surprises have been more to the downside since the last Fed meeting.

Source: Bloomberg

Notably, the market’s expectations for rates has shifted notably more hawkish in the last few weeks since the FOMC statement…

Source: Bloomberg

And so, having spilled the beans prematurely that The Fed will undertake inflation-average targeting (which is really no different at all to the consistently poor performance The Fed has been undertaking to create inflation for a decade), expectations were not high for anything market-moving today with rates not expected to move, Fed purchases not expected to move, and any possible dovish signaling will stem from the Fed’s updated projections.

As we detailed earlier, while growth and unemployment forecasts will likely be nudged up and down respectively, the focus will be on the central bank’s forecasts for rates in 2023 (released for the first time) and on inflation to see if it still sees inflation running below target over its forecast horizon; if it does, the new policy framework implies it will be longer before the Fed begins thinking about lifting rates.

Highlights:

  • Fed Says to Continue Treasury, MBS Purchases at Current Pace
  • Fed Holds IOER at 0.10%, Discount Rate at 0.25%
  • Fed Vote Was 8-2, Kaplan and Kashkari Dissented
  • Fed: 13 of 17 Officials Forecast Rates on Hold Through 2023
  • Fed: Health Crisis Poses Considerable Risks to Economic Outlook

The dotplot indicates rate at ultra-low levels for years…

Key changes to the statement:

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. With inflation running persistently below this longer-run goal, the Committee will aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time so that inflation averages 2 percent over time and longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored at 2 percent.

The Committee expects to maintain an accommodative stance of monetary policy until these outcomes are achieved. The Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and expects it will be appropriate to maintain this target range until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the Committee’s assessments of maximum employment and inflation has risen to 2 percent and is on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time.

In addition, over coming months the Federal Reserve will increase its holdings of Treasury securities and agency mortgage-backed securities at least at the current pace to sustain smooth market functioning and help foster accommodative financial conditions, thereby supporting the flow of credit to households and businesses.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals. The Committee’s assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on public health, labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Voting against the action were:

  • Robert S. Kaplan, who expects that it will be appropriate to maintain the current target range until the Committee is confident that the economy has weathered recent events and is on track to achieve its maximum employment and price stability goals as articulated in its new policy strategy statement, but prefers that the Committee retain greater policy rate flexibility beyond that point; and
  • Neel Kashkari, who prefers that the Committee to indicate that it expects to maintain the current target range until core inflation has reached 2 percent on a sustained basis.

Fed does not see inflation rising above 2.0% in 2023…

Fed upgraded 2020 GDP forecast from -6.5% to -3.7%, but downgraded the out-years…

  • 2021 from 5.0% to 4.0%
  • 2022 from 3.5% to 3.0%
  • 2023 sees at 2.5%

As @knowledge_vital sums up succinctly,

Fed is very, very inline.  Fed was v dovish, and stays v dovish.  For nitpickers, you could make the case the QE language (which stays vague) and the hawkish dissent (Kaplan) are negatives”

*  *  *

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON//FOMC

Stocks Panic-Bid On Fed’s Reassuringly Dovish Statement, USD & Bonds Shrug

The dollar is practically unchanged

Bond yields are practically unchanged

Gold is very modestly higher…

But stocks are panic bid…

And all on the back of nothing new at all from The Fed other than reassuring lower rates for… ever!

 

END

Fed To Continue “At Least” $120BN In Monthly QE To “Support Flow Of Credit To Households”

In its statement the FOMC justified the ongoing (really now endless) QE by stating that “over coming months the Federal Reserve will increase its holdings of Treasury securities and agency mortgage-backed securities at least at the current pace to sustain smooth market functioning and help foster accommodative financial conditions, thereby supporting the flow of credit to households and businesses.”

In other words, the noble Fed is doing QE for the kids not to keep stocks levitating… which is great, but maybe Powell can explain why as Bloomberg reported yesterday, just 0.2% of the Fed’s Main Street Lending Program has been used?

That said, at the same time as the Fed published its statement, the NY Fed issued its latest QE guidance where there were no surprises: in short, $80BN in monthly Treasury purchases and $40BN in monthly MBS purchases will continue indefinitely. In other news, the Fed’s balance sheet will continue to increase by over $1 trillion each year, and probably more depending on how much additional fiscal stimulus Congress agrees on.

Contrary to some expectations that the Fed could push forward the average maturity of its purchases, the Fed did not do that (this time).

Here is the full statement:

Effective September 16, 2020, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) directed the Open Market Trading Desk (the Desk) at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York to continue to increase the System Open Market Account (SOMA) holdings of Treasury securities and agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) at the current pace.  The FOMC also directed the Desk to increase holdings of Treasury securities and agency MBS by additional amounts, and purchase agency commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS), as needed to sustain smooth functioning of markets for these securities.

Consistent with this directive, the Desk plans to continue to increase SOMA holdings of Treasury securities by approximately $80 billion per month.  Treasury purchases will continue to be conducted across a range of maturities and security types.  The Desk will continue to roll over at auction all principal payments from SOMA holdings of maturing Treasury securities. Information on purchase amounts and schedules can be found on the Treasury Securities Operational Details page.

Similarly, the Desk plans to continue to increase SOMA holdings of agency MBS by approximately $40 billion per month.  Agency MBS purchases will continue to generally be concentrated in recently produced coupons in 30-year and 15-year fixed rate agency MBS in the To-Be-Announced market.  The Desk will continue to reinvest principal payments from agency MBS and agency debt in agency MBS. Total monthly purchase amounts can be found on the Agency MBS Historical Operational Results and Planned Purchase Amounts page and operational schedules can be found on the Agency MBS Operation Schedule page.

In addition, the Desk plans to continue to conduct agency CMBS operations to sustain smooth functioning of the agency CMBS market.  Purchases will continue to be secured primarily by multifamily home mortgages that are guaranteed fully as to principal and interest by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae and that the Desk has determined are suitable for purchase. The amounts purchased will depend on the reasonableness of the prices offered.  Agency CMBS principal payments will no longer be reinvested.  Information on purchase amounts and schedules can be found on the Agency CMBS Operation Schedule page.

Additional information on Treasury, agency MBS, and agency CMBS purchases can be found in the following locations:

ii)Market data/USA

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

This is a very important data point: retail sales. Surprisingly online spending growth hits a wall as the government handouts end..retail sales disappoint

(zerohedge)

US Retail Sales Disappoint, Online Spending Growth Hits A Wall As Government Handouts End

After May’s huge rebound from March and April’s collapse, which pushed total retail sales to new record highs, August’s growth was expected to slow as government handouts fade from memory and jobs don’t return as rapidly as everyone expected.

Against a background of very positive China retail sales, US retail sales were a notable disappointment, rising just 0.6% MoM (well below the +1.0% expected) and July’s 1.2% jump was revised downward to +0.9%.0916

Source: Bloomberg

In fact, there were downward revisions across the board.

Under the surface, the big headline was a nothingburger for non-store retailers (i.e. online sellers)…

Retail Sales Up:

  • Motor vehicles and parts: +0.2%
  • Furniture stores: 2.1%
  • Electronics and appliance stores: 0.8%
  • Building materials and supplies: 2.0%
  • Health and personal care: 0.8%
  • Gasoline stations: 0.4%
  • Clothing and accessory stores: 2.9%
  • Food service and drinking places: 4.7%

Retail Sales Unchanged:

  • Nonstore retailers (online shopping): 0.0%

Retail Sales Down:

  • Food and beverage stores: -1.2%
  • Sporting goods, book stores: -5.7%
  • General merchandise stores -0.4%

Retail sales annual change highlights due to forced Work-From-Home:

Winners:

  • Building Materials +15.4%
  • Food and beverage stores +10.0%
  • Online shopping: +22.4%
  • Sporting goods and hobby stores: 11.1%

Losers:

  • Gasoline stations: -15.4%
  • Clothing and accessories: -20.4%
  • Department stores: -16.9%
  • Restaurants: -15.4%

So, simply put, no driving, eating, or dressing up!

The worst news of all is that the ‘control group’ which is used for GDP calculations showed a 0.1% drop MoM in August…

Source: Bloomberg

crushing the self-sustaining recovery narrative.

end

Manhattan rental market sees another record plunge in August with a huge 15,000 empty apartments

(zerohedge)

Manhattan Rental Market Sees Another Record Plunge For August With 15,000 Empty Apartments

As expected given the new pandemic driven ‘escape from New York’, the big apple’s rental market has witnessed another record plunged for the month of August. The numbers are staggering according to new analysis featured in CNBC, with the number of apartments sitting empty in once hot and sought-after Manhattan nearly tripling compared to the same month last year.

“There were more than15,000 empty rental apartments in Manhattan in August, up from 5,600 a year ago, according to a report from Douglas Elliman and Miller Samuel,” CNBC writes. “The inventory of empty units is the largest ever recorded since data started being collected 14 years ago,” it emphasized.

 

Image via SecretNYC/Shutterstock

The surge in empty apartments was widespread across the borough. Declines in new leases were seen across the board, from the high to low end segments. The plunge continues from July numbers which registered at 13,000 empty apartments, which was already a record. The average rental price of a two-bedroom apartment sits at about $4,756/month.

In April at the height of pandemic fears, we reported that New York City lease agreements had plunged 38% in March y/y, the second largest drop in 11 years. The trend clearly continued given the flood of workers telecommuting instead of vying for limited rental space downtown.

And the prior shuttering of restaurants, bars, and other once popular night venues, also given the nearly unprecedented levels of day-to-day subway service cuts as ridership plummeted — all of which has removed many of the “benefits” of living in the more expensive city (making the suburbs look increasingly more attractive as the numbers bear out) — is contributing to pandemic slump in the once booming rental market.

 

Via iStock

Here’s more from the report, detailing it looks to get worse entering what is already a typically slower fall season:

Hopes for a rebound in the fall or the end of 2020 look increasingly unlikely. Although rental prices have come down — median rental prices fell 4% in August — the discounts are not steep enough yet to lure new renters back to the city. The average rental price for a two-bedroom in Manhattan is still $4,756 a month.

The fall is generally a slow period in the Manhattan rental market, especially before an election, Miller said.

Landlords are offering ever-larger incentives to try to entice renters, with the largest share of landlords offering concessions in history. On average, landlords were offering 1.9 months of free rent to new renters in August. The weakest segment of the rental market is the lower end, for one bedrooms and studios, partly a result of the pandemic’s greater impact on lower earners.

Last month, report author Miller Samuel warned: “This could be a difficult couple of years for landlords.” 

To review here’s how things looked after merely the first two months of the pandemic, which saw NYC emerge as the early US virus epicenter:

Via StatistaNew leases and sales have rapidly fallen since March, when COVID-19 restrictions in the city put a halt to one of the largest real estate markets in the world. Open houses and showings have been non-existent, and the mass exodus of wealthy New Yorkers has curbed any recovery for the months of May and June. Brokers were allowed to resume showing apartments on June 22, which has given prospective renters just two weeks to begin sales again.

 

With landlord rental streams quickly evaporating, many will have trouble paying their mortgages and could result in a wave of selling over the next couple of years, sending real estate prices citywide into a possible correction.

end

Rough day for Facebook:  now the FTC is preparing a possible antitrust lawsuit by year end

(zerohedge)

Facebook Plunges On Report FTC Preparing Possible Antitrust Lawsuit By Year End

It’s been a rough day for Facebook: first the world’s biggest social network was dumped by Kim Kardashian who called on her tens of millions of global followers to boycott Mark Zuckerberg’s cash cow, and now the WSJ reports that the FTX is preparing to file a possible antitrust suit against the company, sending its stock plunging after hours, and dragging the Nasdaq lower.

The report reveals that the FTC has spent more than a year investigating concerns that Facebook “has been using its powerful market position to stifle competition” and may file a suit before the end of the year to challenge the company’s monopoly in social media. The inquiry is part of a broader antitrust effort by authorities examining the conduct of a handful of dominant tech companies.

The WSJ reports that the probe, which is in its late stages and which was previously discloses by the company last year, included taking testimony from Mark Zuckerberg, something the commission didn’t do during a prior probe of the company’s privacy practices, and which resulted in a record-breaking $5 billion settlement. In other words, this time around either the monetary penalty will be materially higher, or the FTC may in fact pull a Standard Oil on Facebook, and split up the company.

The key FTC concerns and questions revolves around Facebook’s prior acquisitions, “as well as about issues related to how Facebook manages its platform with regard to app developers.” For its part, Facebook has countered that its acquisitions aren’t anticompetitive and have improved products and experiences for its users, although in light of today’s market moving snub by none other than Kim Kardashian that approach may be in jeopardy. One almost wonders if Kim’s tweet and the WSJ report weren’t coordinated.

Facebook has not yet held discussions with the FTC’s commissioners, which would likely happen at the very final stage of the process. At that point, the decision whether to sue Facebook will be in the hands of republicans, as a majority on the five-member FTC would need to vote in favor of any lawsuit. Currently that commission consists of three Republicans, including Chairman Joseph Simons, and two Democrats.

So far, no final decision has been made on whether to sue Facebook, and the WSJ notes that the commission doesn’t always bring cases even when it is making preparations to do so, such as when it decided against filing an antitrust complaint against Google Inc. in 2013 after a lengthy investigation.

Should the FTC sue Facebook and win, it could seek a range of remedies designed to promote competition against the company, from restrictions on how Facebook operates to breaking off pieces of its business. “The commission can’t unilaterally dictate such changes; it would first have to prove in legal proceedings that the company violated federal antitrust law, and that such changes were necessary.”

The FTC has a pair of options if it sues Facebook: It could bring a case in federal court or it could file a complaint in its in-house legal system, where the case would first go before an administrative law judge. The commission itself would then review that judge’s work and issue a decision, which Facebook then could challenge in a federal appeals court. If the commission wants to seek an interim injunction blocking certain Facebook practices before the end of litigation, it would have to go to federal court.

As part of its antitrust pursuit, the Trump administration will hardly stop with Facebook. The DOJ which shares antitrust authority with the FTC, is also planning to file an antitrust lawsuit soon against Google, the WSJ previously reported.

In any event, since a legal case against either company could likely take years to resolve, the officials who bring a lawsuit will likely not be around to see its conclusion. Furthermore, the Nov. 3 election could impact the future of any case, though both Republicans and Democrats have been critical of tech-company practices even if Facebook has been focusing its recent crackdown exclusively on posts emerging from the Trump campaign.

end

Blackrock, the world’s largest landlord is now making a bet on trailer homes

(zerohedge)

America’s Largest Landlord To Make $550 Million Bet On Trailer Parks

A decade ago, Blackstone Group Inc. became America’s largest landlord, purchasing tens of thousands of single-family homes during the foreclosure crisis. Now the private equity firm has spotted the next big opportunity as the virus-induced recession crushes the working poor, that is, betting on mobile-home parks.

The alternative asset manager has made a drastic shift in investment focus in the last 12 months. This time last year, Blackstone was bidding on a portfolio of luxury hotels – now they’re in talks to purchase up to 40 mobile-home parks from Summit Communities for $550 million, according to Bloomberg, who spoke with several people with direct knowledge.

Sources said Blackstone could make the purchase through a vehicle known as Blackstone Real Estate Income Trust (BREIT). If the private equity firm purchases the portfolio, many of the properties will undergo upgrades.

“Though our investments in this asset class are very limited, we are proud to partner with a best in class operator and plan to invest significant capital into these communities – which are largely occupied by seasonal residents and retirees – to create high-quality housing in places where people want to live,” Blackstone said in a statement.

One source said the deal has yet to be finalized and could still fall through. Interest among Blackstone to acquire mobile-home parks comes as it acquired seven parks, worth $200 million, in Florida and Arizona, earlier this year.

Real estate company JLL said mobile-home parks have been the hottest space within commercial real estate this year. Many firms, like Blackstone, are avoiding malls, hotels, and other retail properties.

2018 marked the year when Blackstone dove headfirst with a bet on mobile-home parks, purchasing 14 communities sold by Tricon Capital Group Inc. The private equity firm owns a little less than 1% of the manufactured housing market.

Blackstone is set to capitalize on the trend of working-poor Americans downsizing into doublewide trailers.

end

A scathing report on Boeing’s flaws by Congress

(zerohedge)

Boeing Put Profits Before People’s Lives By Hiding 737 MAX Design Flaws, Congress Finds

18 months after Ethiopian Airlines Flight 302 plummeted out of the sky just minutes after takeoff last March, Congressional investigators have finally released a comprehensive report outlining the many mistakes made both by Boeing and the FAA during the certification process.

In the months that have passed, investigators have kept the pressure on Boeing (and its share price) with a steady stream of leaks. We’ve already seen emails showing Boeing engineers criticizing the 737 MAX 8 design time in some of the harshest terms imaginable (at one point, one irate engineer complained that “the plane was designed by clowns, who were supervised by monkeys”.

But the 238-page report, released Wednesday morning by the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee and its subcommittee on Aviation, breaks it down into five specific broad problems that allegedly led to the deadly accidents, which prompted regulators around the world to ground plane back in March 2019, even after the FAA initially tried to reassure the world that there was ‘nothing to see here’.

Below is a summary provided by the committee.

  • Production pressures that jeopardized the safety of the flying public. There was tremendous financial pressure on Boeing and the 737 MAX program to compete with Airbus’ new A320neo aircraft. Among other things, this pressure resulted in extensive efforts to cut costs, maintain the 737 MAX program schedule, and avoid slowing the 737 MAX production line.
  • Faulty Design and Performance Assumptions. Boeing made fundamentally faulty assumptions about critical technologies on the 737 MAX, most notably with MCAS, the software designed to automatically push the airplane’s nose down in certain conditions. Boeing also expected that pilots, who were largely unaware that MCAS existed, would be able to mitigate any potential malfunction.
  • Culture of Concealment. Boeing withheld crucial information from the FAA, its customers, and 737 MAX pilots, including internal test data that revealed it took a Boeing test pilot more than 10 seconds to diagnose and respond to uncommanded MCAS activation in a flight simulator, a condition the pilot described as “catastrophic.” Federal guidelines assume pilots will respond to this condition within four seconds.
  • Conflicted Representation. The FAA’s current oversight structure with respect to Boeing creates inherent conflicts of interest that have jeopardized the safety of the flying public. The report documents multiple instances in which Boeing employees who have been authorized to perform work on behalf of the FAA failed to alert the FAA to potential safety and/or certification issues.
  • Boeing’s Influence Over the FAA’s Oversight Structure. Multiple career FAA officials have documented examples where FAA management overruled a determination of the FAA’s own technical experts at the behest of Boeing. These examples are consistent with results of a recent draft FAA employee “safety culture” survey that showed many FAA employees believed its senior leaders are more concerned with helping industry achieve its goals and are not held accountable for safety-related decisions.

All these flaws eventually led to the “preventable deaths” of 346 passengers. Boeing repeatedly dismissed warnings and complaints from employees related to MCAS, which was created to compensate for a redesign of the plane’s interior to create more space for passengers. One of the flaws was that MCAS relied on a single sensor, which was prone to feeding faulty information.

Why did Boeing need MCAS? Because, as the NYT explains, the engines on the Max are larger and placed higher than on its predecessor, so they could cause the jet’s nose to push upward in some circumstances. MCAS was designed to push the nose back down. In both crashes, the software was activated by faulty sensors, effectively forcing the plane’s nose down repeatedly, eventually forcing them into a fatal nosedive.

What’s more, Boeing successfully lobbied the FAA to avoid classifying the new software as “safety critical”, meaning that the company didn’t need to update pilots on how it worked. Some pilots reportedly weren’t even aware the software existed before the crashes. Boeing deliberately concealed test data showing that if a pilot took longer than 10 seconds to realize that MCAS had kicked in accidentally, the results would be “catastrophic”. Boeing knew all that before the twin crashes that shut down the program…and the company still did nothing. The company also deliberately concealed faulty alerts that would have warned pilots about problems with the sensor used to trigger MCAS.

In a statement, DeFazio blamed Boeing for kowtowing to Wall Street pressure, and putting profits before people’s lives.

“Our report lays out disturbing revelations about how Boeing—under pressure to compete with Airbus and deliver profits for Wall Street—escaped scrutiny from the FAA, withheld critical information from pilots, and ultimately put planes into service that killed 346 innocent people. What’s particularly infuriating is how Boeing and FAA both gambled with public safety in the critical time period between the two crashes,” Chair DeFazio said. “On behalf of the families of the victims of both crashes, as well as anyone who steps on a plane expecting to arrive at their destination safely, we are making this report public to put a spotlight not only on the broken safety culture at Boeing but also the gaps in the regulatory system at the FAA that allowed this fatally-flawed plane into service. Critically, our report gives Congress a roadmap on the steps we must take to reinforce aviation safety and regulatory transparency, increase Federal oversight, and improve corporate accountability to help ensure the story of the Boeing 737 MAX is never, ever repeated.”

Rep Rick Larson added that the report, combined with separate findings from regulators in Indonesia and Ethiopia, would help paint a more complete picture of what led to the crash.

One of the most egregious decisions made by Boeing was opposing a requirement that pilots receive simulator training to fly the plane. If pilots needed to be retrained, Boeing would have had to eat some of the cost out of its end of the deal, according to an NYT report. This focus on cost-cutting “drove a lot of really bad decisions,” DeFazio said.

The Democrats on the committee also accused Boeing of putting a priority on profits by strongly opposing a requirement that pilots receive simulator training to fly the plane. Under a 2011 contract with Southwest Airlines, for example, Boeing promised to discount each of the 200 planes in the airline’s order by $1 million if the F.A.A. ended up requiring simulator training for pilots moving from an earlier version of the aircraft, the 737NG, to the Max.

“That drove a whole lot of really bad decisions internally in Boeing, and the F.A.A. did not pick up on these things,” Mr. DeFazio said.

The report alleges that the ‘time pressure’ imposed on the 737 MAX project was unusually intense. Keith Leverkuhn, former Boeing VP and General Manager of the MAX program, allegedly kept “a countdown clock” in a conference room, which he allegedly described as an “excitement generator”.

“One of the mantras that we had was the value of a day,” he said, “and making sure that we were being prudent with our time, that we were being thorough, but yet, that there was a schedule that needed to be met…” one Boeing worker said.

Back in 2012, in order to lower development costs, Boeing reduced the work hours involved in the MAX’s avionics regression testing by 2,000 hours. It also examined other reductions to save costs, including a reduction to flight test support by 3,000 hours.

Boeing doesn’t shoulder the blame alone. According to the report, the FAA “failed to ensure the safety of the traveling public” as “excessive” outsourcing had “impaired [the FAA] from acting independently.”

The report comes as regulators are reportedly close to finally lifting the grounding order by approving the newly redesigned MAX; the expectation is that the plane might be back in service before the end of the year.

In addition to the report, Congress has introduced legislation that would toughen the agency’s certification process, in part by requiring that it carry out regular independent audits on company-employed representatives.

Responding to the allegations in the report, the FAA said it “is committed to continually advancing aviation safety and looks forward to working with the committee to implement improvements identified in its report.” Boeing, meanwhile, said it had learned lesson. “Boeing cooperated fully and extensively with the committee’s inquiry since it began in early 2019. We have been hard at work strengthening our safety culture and rebuilding trust with our customers, regulators and the flying public.”

After failing to ring up even a single order for the MAX in 2020, Boeing finally celebrated a small order from Enter Air, a Polish charter airline, a few weeks ago. However, recent reports about alleged design flaws with the aerospace giant’s 787 Dreamliner, and other Boeing planes, could create lingering problems for shares even after the 737 MAX is back in the skies.

Read the full report below:

2020.09.15 FINAL 737 MAX Report for Public Release by Zerohedge on Scribd

end

Hurricane Sally makes landfall with catastrophic life threatening flooding

(zerohedge)

Hurricane Sally Makes Landfall In Alabama With “Catastrophic, Life-Threatening Flooding”

Slow-moving Hurricane Sally finally made landfall on Alabama’s Gulf Coast on Wednesday morning as a Category Two hurricane, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC).

“Sally has made landfall near Gulf Shores Alabama at 445 AM CDT as a category two hurricane. Maximum sustained winds were 105 mph with a minimum central pressure of 965 mb,” NHC tweeted

Sally made landfall near Alabama’s Mobile Bay and the Florida Panhandle coast around 0545 ET with winds at 105 mph. NHC said the hurricane is unleashing “hurricane-force winds spreading inland over southeastern Alabama and the western portion of the Florida Panhandle. Catastrophic and life-threatening flooding likely along portions of the north-central Gulf Coast.”

On Tuesday, we noted NHC’s warning that the hurricane could unleash “historic flooding” across Mississippi, Alabama, and portions of the Florida panhandle. Now it appears damaging winds and torrential rains will stretch from Mississippi to the Florida Panhandle. Some of these areas could experience upwards of two feet of rain as the hurricane creeps inland at three mph.

Storm surge warnings are in effect for Mobile Bay to Panama City.

Peak storm surge between Mobile Bay and Pensacola Bay is between 4-7 feet.

Flash flooding risks across the Alabama-Florida line are “high.”

“Widespread moderate to major river flooding is forecast,” NHC said. “Significant flash and urban flooding, as well as widespread minor to moderate river flooding, is likely across inland portions Alabama into central Georgia.”

As of 0740 ET, nearly a half-million customers are without power in Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, and Lousiana, according to PowerOutage. U.S. data.

President Trump tweeted late Monday night that his “team” is “closely monitoring extremely dangerous Hurricane Sally.” Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana have had emergency declarations approved by the White House ahead of Sally’s arrival. More than 17 million people are located in the storm’s path.

Reuters notes research from Chuck Watson of Enki Research, which tracks tropical storm damage, who expects Sally’s damage could be in the range of $2 to $3 billion.

From Biloxi, Mississippi, to Pascagoula, Florida, ports, businesses, and schools were shuttered earlier this week ahead of the hurricane making landfall. Walmart announced 54 closures in Gulf Coast states, according to CNN.

Military bases, including Naval Air Station Pensacola in Escambia County, Florida, Keesler Air Force Base in Biloxi, Mississippi, and Eglin Air Force Base in Pensacola, have announced only mission essential personnel should report to work Wednesday.

Reuters notes a quarter of all U.S. Gulf of Mexico offshore oil and gas production has been taken offline, with some refiners inland shuttering operations.

“This isn’t the first hurricane that I have been through. I have been there through Hurricane Nate and Tropical Storm Gordon,” Merrill Warren of Summerdale, Alabama, told CNN. “I’m more worried about the rain for this one … The rain and storms surge are definitely going to be the bigger issue with a storm moving at two mph.”

 

iv) Swamp commentaries)

Pelosi is playing with a losing hand:  Her party is revolting against her as she rejects the bipartisan $1.5 trillion deal to provide COVID 19 relieve to citizens.

(zerohedge)

Pelosi Holds House Democrats Hostage As Party Revolts Over Stimulus Impasse

After rejecting a $1.5 trillion bipartisan stimulus compromise supported by 50 House lawmakers, Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) vowed to hold the chamber hostage – announcing that the House will remain in session until the parties reach an agreement on the next round of coronavirus relief.

During a conference call with the House Democratic Caucus, Pelosi said she wouldn’t accept a “skinny” deal – and would instead extend the chamber’s calendar until a deal she approves of is struck, according to The Hill.

“We have to stay here until we have a bill,” she told lawmakers.

The surprise development reflects both the severity of the public health and economic crises caused by the coronavirus pandemic and the growing pressure Pelosi is facing from the moderate wing of her party, which is clamoring for leadership to vote on another aid package before Congress leaves town again for the elections.

The practical effects of the announcement, however, will likely be slight.

House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) acknowledged that most lawmakers will likely return to their districts when the scheduled session ends on Oct. 2, leaving party leaders seeking to hash out an agreement with the White House. If such a deal emerges, then members would be called back to Washington. In that sense, the dynamics would look very similar to those surrounding the long August recess, when the Capitol was all but empty. –The Hill

In other words, House Democrats are going to tell Pelosi to pound sand until an agreement is reached.

Pelosi’s intransigence has ruffled feathers within her own party, as Politico reports that her hardline approach to negotiations – demanding $2.2 trillion at latest count, has frustrated rank-and-file Democrats.

Pelosi’s stance is increasingly putting her at odds with moderate members in her caucus, some of whom are growing more vocal in their anger by the dayand with less than two months before the election.

A call between the centrist New Democrat Coalition and leadershipgrew heated Tuesday as Pelosi and House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) defended their posture, even as several lawmakers pleaded for them to change tacks in the coming weeks.

Rep. Kathleen Rice (D-N.Y.) pressed Pelosi on why members wouldn’t stay in town waiting for a deal, to which the speaker told her to “take a poll of your colleagues,” according to Democrats on the call. “I’m always here,” Pelosi added. And the exchanges only grew stormier after Pelosi dropped off and Hoyer took over. –Politico

“My conviction is to actually do my goddamn job and come up with a solution for the American people,” said Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-VA), who added “We have to bring something to the floor.”

Hoyer, meanwhile, has privately urged Pelosi to reconsider her strategy – though he said “I don’t want to undermine Nancy in any way” several times on the House Democratic Caucus conference call.

Other Democrats voiced their displeasure as well.

“Every member of the leadership team, Democrats and Republicans, have messed up. Everyone is accountable,” said Rep. Max Rose (D-NY). “Get something done. Get something done!”

Freshman swing district Democrat Rep. Kendra Horn (D-OK) said “What truly ‘falls short’ is doing nothing. It is flatly unacceptable that congressional leadership is not at the table when businesses are closing, Americans are out of work, and families need help. The political games have to stop.” (via Breitbart)

end
All of Mueller’s team should go to jail for obstruction of justice
Penchchoukov/EpochTimes

Mueller Team Had Lisa Page’s Phone It Claimed Was Lost, Email Shows

Authored by Ivan Pentchoukov via the Epoch Times (emphasis ours) ,

An official who worked on special counsel Robert Mueller’s Russia investigation wrote in a recently released email that he or she was in possession of an iPhone belonging to Lisa Page three days after the former FBI lawyer’s last day on the job and at a time when the device was thought to have been lost.

 

Lisa Page, former legal counsel to former FBI Director Andrew McCabe, arrives on Capitol Hill in Washington on July 13, 2018. (Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP via Getty Images)

The special counsel’s office (SCO) and the Justice Department previously claimed to have no documents to show who handled Page’s iPhone after she turned it in on July 14, 2017, or who improperly wiped it two weeks later, before it could be checked for records, in violation of SCO policy.

But documents released by the Department of Justice (DOJ) on Sept. 11 tell a different story, with three officials certifying that Page turned over her phone and one claiming to have been in possession of it.

I have her phone and laptop,” an administrative officer with the initials LFW wrote in a July 17, 2017, email to Christopher Greer, an assistant director at the DOJ Office of the Chief Information Officer (OCIO).

Beth McGarry, the executive officer at the special counsel’s office, told Greer in an email sent earlier in the day that Page “returned her mobile phone and laptop.”

On the same day, a property custodian officer, whose name is redacted in the documents, signed a form on which Page certified that she turned in her phone and the officer certified that “all government property has been returned or otherwise properly accounted for.”

The July 17 timing of the two statements and the signature is significant. The DOJ Office of Inspector General (OIG) previously concluded that there were no records of who had the phone after July 14.

The records about Page’s phone are part of a DOJ disclosure that revealed that members of the Mueller team improperly wiped at least 22 iPhones before they could be checked for records.

 

Then-FBI official Peter Strzok confers with his legal counsel before a joint committee hearing on Capitol Hill in Washington on July 12, 2018. (Alex Edelman/Getty Images)

These irregularities with the phones of Mueller investigators are either sloppiness or the deliberate destruction of evidence—and it’s probably not sloppiness,” Rep. Devin Nunes (R-Calif.), ranking member of the House Select Committee on Intelligence, told The Epoch Times in an email.

On July 14, Page’s last day at the SCO, McGarry met Page to fill out her exit clearance form. Page checked a box on the form to certify that she “surrendered all government-owned property, including … cellular telephones.” McGarry signed the same form but later told the OIG that “that she did not physically receive Page’s issued iPhone.”

Page told the inspector general that she “had left her assigned cell phone and laptop on a bookshelf at the office on her final day there.”

McGarry left the special counsel’s office for the private sector in March 2019, according to her LinkedIn profile.

“The DOJ OIG investigated the circumstances of the mobile phone issued to Lisa Page by the Special Counsel’s Office,” McGarry told The Epoch Times in an email, referring to the December 2018 OIG report. She didn’t immediately respond to a follow-up query about how to reconcile differences between the findings of the report and the new documents.

The OIG, which interviewed the records officer, McGarry, Page, and LFW for the report, told The Epoch Times that the new documents aren’t at odds with its findings.

“We stand by the information in our text message report about Page turning in the device on July 14,” Stephanie Logan, a senior public affairs specialist at the OIG, wrote in an email to The Epoch Times.

The report concluded that neither Mueller’s office nor the DOJ “had records reflecting who handled the device or who reset it after Page turned in her iPhone on July 14, 2017.”

Page’s phone notably never made it into the hands of the special counsel’s records officer, who told the OIG that she never received the phone to examine it for any government records that would need to be retained.

Phone not found,” the records officer noted in a log she kept about the records on the phones assigned to the special counsel’s office staff.

The DOJ found the device more than a year later and turned it over to the OIG, which determined that all of the data was deleted from the device on July 31, 2017.

Wiped iPhones

The records officer’s log shows that Page’s iPhone wasn’t the only device to elude an examination for government records. A total of at least 22 iPhones with unique asset tags used by the Mueller team were wiped before the records officer could review the contents, according to an Epoch Times review of four inventory logs and various forms released on Sept. 11.

The Mueller team offered a number of excuses for the deletions. Two people claimed the phones wiped themselves. Others said they erased all the data by accident or had to do so because they forgot their passwords. Andrew Weissmann, a prosecutor, wiped his iPhone twice.

Mueller’s team used a total of 92 iPhones, according to the documents. Four of the phones appear in the inventory logs, but not on the records officer’s log, suggesting they were either recorded without their unique asset tag or evaded the officer entirely. One of the four phones belonged to deputy special counsel Aaron Zebley. Another belonged to Zainab Ahmad, a special counsel attorney.

One phone was partially wipedFour phones were improperly handed over to the OCIO and wiped before the records officer’s review. As many as seven phones with no asset tags noted by the records officer were either reassigned or wiped before the officer could assess the device for records.

 

Former special counsel Robert Mueller on Capitol Hill in Washington on July 24, 2019. (Alex Wong/Getty Images)

The pattern of questionable deletions has drawn the attention of lawmakers. Sens. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) and Ron Johnson (R-Wis.), the chairmen of the finance and oversight committees, respectively, sent a letter to the DOJ and the FBI last week asking for more information about what happened with the phones.

It appears that Special Counsel Mueller’s team may have deleted federal records that could be key to better understanding their decision-making process as they pursued their investigation and wrote their report,” Grassley wrote. “Indeed, many officials apparently deleted the records after the DOJ Inspector General began his inquiry into how the Department mishandled Crossfire Hurricane.”

Crossfire Hurricane is the FBI codename for the investigation of the 2016 Trump campaign; Mueller took over the probe in May 2017.

Five months after Page left the special counsel’s office, the DOJ authorized a leak of 375 text messages between Page and Strzok, triggering a media firestorm over what the pair discussed. The initial and the subsequent releases of the texts showed that they expressed hatred for Trump and had a clear preference for his rival, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. Strzok told Page that “we’ll stop” Trump from becoming president, discussed an “insurance policy” in case Trump won the election, and mused about impeachment around the time he joined the Mueller team.

Page’s attorneys didn’t immediately respond to a request by The Epoch Times for comment.

The OIG discovered the biased Page-Strzok texts during an inquiry into the handling of the FBI’s investigation of the Trump campaign. After the inspector general informed Mueller of the texts in late July, Mueller removed Strzok from the Russia investigation. Former FBI Deputy Director Andrew McCabe told lawmakers that he learned of the text messages on July 27 and made the decision to remove Strzok the same day. Someone wiped Page’s phone four days later.

Strzok and Page played key roles in the FBI’s investigations of both the Trump campaign and Clinton’s use of an unauthorized email server. The OIG concluded that their bias cast a cloud over the email probe but didn’t ultimately influence the outcome of the investigation.

The OIG began looking for the phones belonging to Page and Strzok after being informed of a six-month gap in the text messages it had recovered. The inspector general received the pair’s four FBI Samsung phones in late January 2018.

On Jan. 26, 2018, Greer reached out to LFW to ask where Page’s SCO iPhone was, because the OIG wanted to speak to the official about the device.

Yes. I know it is missing. We discovered that first,” LFW wrote back.

The DOJ tracked down the phone eight months later, in early September 2018 and handed it over to the OIG. The records officer later contacted the inspector general to find out if the phone was wiped.

Yes that’s correct, the device had been reset to factory settings,” the OIG official wrote back.

Three months later, in December 2018, the OIG released the report on its hunt to recover additional text messages Page and Strzok sent on six phones they used, four of which were assigned by the FBI. The effort resulted in the discovery of hundreds of text messages, but none came from the special counsel’s office phones, both of which were wiped before investigators recovered them.

The following January, DOJ officials reached out to Verizon with a request for billing statements to check how many messages Page and Strzok sent on their special counsel’s office phones. Verizon responded by saying no text messages were sent, with a caveat that data did leave the device. Verizon’s report didn’t cover the most common way to send a message on an iPhone—the iMessage app—which uses an internet connection rather than the carrier’s text service.

Both numbers did have data usage so it could mean that if any messages were sent, it could have been through some type of app but we would not know for sure from our end,” a message from Verizon stated.

Mueller concluded his 22-month investigation having found no evidence of collusion between the Trump campaign and Russia.

end

Dershowitz sues CNN for 300 million dollars in a defamation action

(Turley/)

Dershowitz Sues CNN For $300,000,000 In Defamation Action

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

Alan Dershowitz just filed a whale of a lawsuit against CNN, though it could end up beached in short order under controlling case law.  The Harvard Law professor emeritus is demanding $300,000,000 in compensatory and punitive damages from CNN for misrepresenting his legal arguments in the Trump impeachment trial.

In fairness to Dershowitz, the coverage of the trial by CNN was dreadful with intentionally and consistently slanted coverage of the evidence, standards, and arguments.  However, the objections raised by Dershowitz are likely to be treated as part of the peril for high-profile figures operating in the public domain. In other words, you can complain about the weather but you cannot sue the storm.

I have long been a critic of the open bias shown by CNN under Jeff Zucker who admitted that his attacks on Trump were part of a ratings moveIn the age of echo-journalism, CNN has sought to attract viewers who only want to hear that Trump is committing clear crimes, will eventually (if not imminently) be jailed, and that Trump supporters are knuckling-dragging, gun-toting zombies marching to his tune of white supremacy and authoritarianism.

However, to prevail against a media company, a public figure must meet a higher standard for defamation. While Sarah Palin just secured a favorable ruling, it is rare to be able to maintain such actions. The damage demand also seems outlandishly theatrical and raised the question if the lawsuit is one last effort to clarify the record rather than seriously pursue relief. The amount includes $50,000,000 in compensatory damages and $250,000,000 in punitive damages for a total of $300,000,000.  Dershowitz is worth a great deal of money but it is hard to see how CNN’s coverage resulted in a loss of $50 million, particularly when he was widely criticized for his arguments by academics and commentators alike.

This issue will turn on Gertz v. Robert Welch, Inc., 418 U.S. 323, 352 (1974) and its progeny of cases.  The Supreme Court has held that public figure status applies when someone “thrust[s] himself into the vortex of [the] public issue [and] engage[s] the public’s attention in an attempt to influence its outcome.” A limited-purpose public figure status applies if someone voluntarily “draw[s] attention to himself” or allows himself to become part of a controversy “as a fulcrum to create public discussion.” Wolston v. Reader’s Digest Association, 443 U.S. 157, 168 (1979).  Dershowitz is clearly a full public figure.

The standard for defamation for public figures and officials in the United States is the product of a decision decades ago in New York Times v. Sullivan. The Supreme Court ruled that tort law could not be used to overcome First Amendment protections for free speech or the free press. The Court sought to create “breathing space” for the media by articulating that standard that now applies to both public officials and public figures. In order to prevail,

Dershowitz must show either actual knowledge of its falsity or a reckless disregard of the truth.

Dershowitz’s complaint would face a serious challenge in front of most judges. His objection focused on how his legal argument was presented by CNN. While I stated that I thought Dershowitz did an impressive job in parts of his presentation, particularly on the first day, I was highly critical of his theory of the history and standard for impeachment. Indeed, I thought it was a critical mistake to incorporate his theory in the Senate trial, a move that the team seemed to later shy away from in argument. Nevertheless, I felt Dershowitz was treated unfairly by critics and the media.

Dershowitz’s action focuses on how CNN presented his argument and failed to include countervailing statements to make his position look extreme, if not unintelligible. The coverage often focused on his answer to Sen. Ted Cruz (R, Tx), when he was  if it mattered whether there was a quid pro quo arrangement in Trump’s dealings with Ukraine.

Dershowitz responded

“The only thing that would make a quid pro quo unlawful is if the quo were somehow illegal. Now we talk about motive. There are three possible motives that a political figure could have. One, a motive in the public interest and the Israel argument would be in the public interest. The second is in his own political interest and the third, which hasn’t been mentioned, would be his own financial interest, his own pure financial interest, just putting money in the bank. I want to focus on the second one for just one moment. Every public official that I know believes that his election is in the public interest and, mostly you are right, your election is in the public interest, and if a president does something which he believes will help him get elected in the public interest, that cannot be the kind of quid pro quo that results in impeachment.”

Thus, Dershowitz noted that on the “public interest” motive, Dershowitz said:

“Every public official that I know believes that his election is in the public interest, and mostly you’re right–your election is in the public interest—and if a president does something which he believes will help him get elected—in the public interest—that cannot be the kind of quid pro quo that results in impeachment.”

On the second motive, Dershowitz blurred the motive with the first. He noted that if a president thought his election was in the public interest, then working for his own political interest is a non-criminal motive.  He was struggling to explain that this is part of the “mixed motives” that make these cases very difficult, a point that some of us have made for years.

However, Dershowitz objects that CNN cut his argument down to a final line to air “a one-sided and false narrative that Professor Dershowitz believes and argued that as long as the President believes his reelection is in the public interest, that he could do anything at all – including illegal acts – and be immune from impeachment.”  This editing, he claims, left the impression that he was advancing an argument “preposterous and foolish on its face” and “falsely paint[ed] Professor Dershowitz as a constitutional scholar and intellectual who had lost his mind.” It added that, “[w]ith that branding, Professor Dershowitz’s sound and meritorious arguments would then be drowned under a sea of repeated lies.”

The comparison to the Palin lawsuit is telling.  Palin was portrayed by the New York Times of having inspired or incited Jared Loughner’s 2011 shooting of then-U.S. Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, D-Ariz. The editorial was on the shooting of GOP Rep. Steve Scalise and other members of Congress by James T. Hodgkinson, of Illinois, 66, a liberal activist and Sanders supporter.  The attack did not fit with a common narrative in the media on right-wing violence and the Times awkwardly sought to shift the focus back on conservatives. It stated that SarahPAC had posted a graphic that put Giffords in crosshairs before she was shot. It was false but it was enough for the intended spin: “Though there’s no sign of incitement as direct as in the Giffords attack, liberals should of course hold themselves to the same standard of decency that they ask of the right.” In reality, Giffords district was simply one of many “targeted” by Republicans as possible flips in the next election.

That misrepresentation was not a matter of interpretation. The New York Times took a clearly unrelated posting and portrayed it as incitement for murder. Dershowitz conversely is undermined by the very fact that his argument was so nuanced.  It was subject to different views on its meaning and application.  For example, Dershowitz also claimed that “for it to be impeachable, you would have to discern that he or she made a decision solely on the basis of corrupt motives.” That raises the uncertainty of what it makes to negate an impeachment article if a president can claim that was acting in part for his own election and his election was in the public interest.

I agree with Dershowitz that his arguments were given short shrift and widely misrepresented. However, such legal arguments are subject to interpretation.  It is doubtful that any court will use defamation law to address such different takes on a multi-faceted argument. Moreover, CNN can show that it not only played the full Dershowitz argument live but that it made available the full argument to interested viewers. It also interviewed Dershowitz who objected to the coverage.

Notably, Dershowitz is most aggrieved by the failure to include his emphasis on any impeachment acts as being “illegal.” However, that was also a contested part of his theory. Indeed, I testified in both the Clinton and Trump impeachments that an impeachable offense did not necessarily have to be a crime.  Like Dershowitz, I objected to coverage on this point including outright misrepresentation of what was said at the Trump hearing by the Washington Post’s Jennifer Rubin (the Post has never corrected the error despite the transcript). I did not however sue for defamation.  I am not alone. Rubin repeatedly published misrepresentations about actual court decisions without correction from the Post because such columns are popular even if they are clearly wrong.

The argument made by Dershowitz starts out with his controversial emphasis on an impeachable offense being illegal and then explores the motive of such crimes.  He fairly notes that the starting premise was that we are talking about whether an illegal act is alleged. However, the motive is critical to that threshold determination and the rather fluid description of motives leads back to the same concern: that a president can virtually always present a determinative motivational defense under this argument.

The defamation standard is rooted in the First Amendment and designed to give ample “room at the elbows” for the exercise of free speech and the free press.  This complaint would turn that liberating standard into a virtual straight jacket for the media.  Again, even though I am highly sympathetic to Dershowitz and his complaint over the coverage, I cannot imagine a court or a jury signing of on such a ruling.

Dershowitz CNN Lawsuit by Law&Crime

endThis ought to be fun:  subpoenas authorized for Comey, Brennan Clapper Halper and other spy gate figures by Homeland Security Committee (Wisconsin R Johnson chairman)(zerohedge)

Subpoenas Authorized For Comey, Brennan, Clapper, Halper And Other ‘Spygate’ Figures

The Senate Homeland Security Committee voted on Wednesday to authorize subpoenas for dozens of Obama-era officials involved in ‘spygate,’ including former FBI Director James Comey, former CIA Director John Brennan, former DNI James Clapper — and longtime US intelligence operative Stephen Halper, who the Obama administration paid nearly half-a-million dollars to help the FBI spy on the 2016 Trump campaign.

The committee authorized chairman Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) to issue notices for taking depositions, subpoenas, records requests, and testimony related to the “Crossfire Hurricane” investigation – along with the DOJ Inspector General’s review of said investigation, as well as the “unmasking” of individuals connected to the Trump campaign, transition team, and administration, according to Fox News.

The committee also authorized subpoenas for Sidney Blumenthal, former Obama chief of staff Denis McDonough, former FBI counsel Lisa Page, former FBI agent Joe Pientka, former ambassador to the United Nations Samantha Power, former FBI director of counterintelligence Bill Priestap, former White House national security adviser Susan Rice, former FBI agent Peter Strzok, former FBI lawyer Kevin Clinesmith – who pleaded guilty to making a false statement in the first criminal case arising from U.S. Attorney John Durham’s review of the investigation into links between Russia and the 2016 Trump campaign – among others.

As part of the authorization, Johnson may subpoena “the production of all records” related to the FBI’s initial Russia probe, as well as unmasking requests for “James Baker, former FBI Deputy Director Andrew McCabe, DOJ official Bruce Ohr, FBI case agent Steven Somma, former U.S. Ambassador to Russia John Teftt, former deputy assistant attorney general Tashina Gauhar.”

Halper, meanwhile, is a former government official and longtime spook for the CIA and FBI, who was outed as the FBI informant who infiltrated the Trump campaign after the Washington Post and the New York Times ran reports that corroborated a March report by the Daily Callerdetailing Halper’s outreach to several low-level aides to the Trump campaign, including Carter Page and George Papadopoulos.

Halper, 73, cut a colorful figure as he strolled through diplomatic, academic, and espionage circles, having served in the Reagan, Ford, and Nixon administrations. –Daily Mail

These contacts are notable, as Halper’s infiltration of the Trump campaign corresponds with the two of the four targets of the FBI’s Operation Crossfire Hurricane – in which the agency sent counterintelligence agent Peter Strzok and others to a London meeting in the Summer of 2016 with former Australian diplomat Alexander Downer – who says Papadopoulos drunkenly admitted to knowing that the Russians had Hillary Clinton’s emails.

The 74-year-old Halper who split his time between his Virginia farm and teaching at Cambridge, approached several Trump campaign aides during the 2016 US election for purposes of espionage – on behalf of the FBI, headed at the time by the recently very quiet James Comey. Halper continued to spy on Trump campaign aide Carter Page well after the election, and now we find that he was trying to infiltrate the Trump administration.

In short:  

  • The FBI recruited Halper to spy on the Trump campaign in the summer of 2016
  • After forming relationships with two Trump campaign aides, Halper invited one of them, George Papadopoulos, to work on a policy paper in London, where the 73-year-old professor/spy brought up Russian emails
  • Halper approached Trump aide Carter Page during an election-themed conference at Cambridge on July 11, 2016. The two would stay in contact for the next 14 months, frequently meeting and exchanging emails.
  • Then, after the election, Halper reportedly tried to infiltrate the Trump administration, pushing for a job in the State Department, according to Axios.

All the while, Halper had been paid handsomely by the Obama administration through a Department of Defense contract, one of four going back to 2012. The most recent contract had a start date of September 26, 2016 – three days after a September 23 Yahoo! News article by Michael Isikoff about Trump aide Carter Page, which used information fed to Isikoff by “pissgate” dossier creator Christopher Steele. The FBI would use the Yahoo! article along with the unverified “pissgate” dossier as supporting evidence in an FISA warrant application for Page.

It appears Johnson will have plenty of digging to do if Republicans hold onto the Senate in November.

end
This is very funny!
(Watson/Summit news)

Senator Kennedy: “There Are Times When I Think Pelosi Has Eaten Tide Pods”

Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,

GOP Senator John Kennedy used a startling cultural reference to portray his belief that believes Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi is crazy, saying that he often thinks she has ‘is one of those people who tried Tide Pods’ laundry detergent.

Appearing with Sean Hannity, Kennedy was addressing Pelosi’s obsession with the $3.4 trillion coronavirus bill.

“Sean, with respect, there are times, particularly recently, when I think Speaker Pelosi is one of those people who tried Tide pods,” Kennedy hilariously stated.

“I want you to think about what she proposed today, this is what the speaker is threatening to do,” he continued, adding “She is threatening to keep the House Democrats in session and prevent them from going home and running for reelection unless the Senate Republicans agree to the speaker’s $3.4 trillion coronavirus bill.”

“On the one hand we can vote for Pelosi’s $3.4 trillion bill or we can agree to allow her to put the House Democratic majority into jeopardy. That’s just bone deep down to the marrow foolish,” Kennedy urged.

Kennedy further emphasised that Nothing is going to get done while the Democrats refuse to back down over something that is never going to come to fruition.

“Senator Schumer and Speaker Pelosi aren’t going to agree to anything until we agree to spend a trillion dollars bailing out New York and California and that’s not going to happen in your or my natural life,” Kennedy added.

Kennedy’s assessment of Pelosi’s sanity comes on the heels of Mad Money Host Jim Cramer calling Pelosi “crazy Nanncy” right to her face, before instantly apologising:

  • end

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

The afternoon decline materialized after the Apple Event ended.  Apple, which had rallied 3% for the event, turned negative for the day.  Either the market was underwhelmed by Apple’s new products or traders were waiting to liquidate after Apple’s product presentation.

Here’s everything Apple just announced: Apple Watch Series 6, Apple Watch SE, The new 8th-generation iPad, the new iPad Air, Fitness+ workout services, Apple One service bundles

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/15/apple-event-live-updates.html

When the final hour arrived, so did another down leg.   Here’s a contributing factor:

@KimKardashian: I love that I can connect directly with you through Instagram and Facebook, but I can’t sit by and stay silent while these platforms continue to allow the spreading of hate, propaganda and misinformation – created by groups to sow division and split America apart only to take steps after people are killed. Misinformation shared on social media has a serious impact on our elections and undermines our democracy.  Please join me tomorrow when I will be “freezing” my Instagram and FB account to tell Facebook to #StopHateForProfit.

House Moderates Unveil $1.52 Trillion Bipartisan Relief Plan

50 House Democrats and Republicans released a $1.52 trillion virus plan in a long-shot attempt to break a months-long deadlock… [Pelosi and top Dems quickly nixed the plan.]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-15/house-moderates-to-release-bipartisan-stimulus-compromise?sref=omvmmwIg

CNN’s @mkraju: Rep. Max Rose, a freshman Democrat from a swing NY district, reacted angrily after top Democrats rejected the new stimulus proposal unveiled Tuesday by the bipartisan Problem Solvers Caucus. “It made me disappointed to be a Democrat,” he told me.

Consultant says shippers using U.S. West Coast ports can’t book rail on BNSF and UP

The consultant explained that there is a huge shortage of rail capacity: “There are no rail cars and there are no chassis.” The consultant, who is not identified, was contracted to research container rail bookings on the UP and BNSF to and from U.S. West Coast ports including: Los Angeles, Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle… Why would BNSF move heaven and earth to capture volume while UP aimed to tightly manage its capacity?… The most obvious answer is that UP’s response was straight out of the Precision Scheduled Railroading playbook. Container traffic isn’t a high-margin business. Running empty trains, or repositioning empties, increases your costs and burns crews and locomotives while throwing your network out of balance.”  https://ajot.com/insights/full/ai-consultant-says-shippers-using-u.s-west-coast-ports-cant-book-rail-on-bnsf-and-up

U.S. Incomes Surged, Poverty Fell to 60-Year Low before Virus

Median, inflation-adjusted household income increased 6.8% last year to $68,703 — among the fastest gains on record — as more Americans got jobs and wages rose, according to annual data released Tuesday by the U.S. Census Bureau. The poverty rate fell by 1.3 percentage point to 10.5%, the lowest in data back to 1959 and the fifth straight decline…

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-15/u-s-median-household-income-jumped-6-8-in-2019-poverty-fell

Dr. Li-Meng Yan, the Chinese scientist who published a paper which shows [genome sequence proof] Covid-19 was created intentionally in a Wuhan lab, appeared on Tucker Carlson last night.  She claims the scientific community knows China intentionally created Covid-19 but the CCP controls them.

https://twitter.com/KarluskaP/status/1306028185931395072

Dr. Li says China released Covid-19 on purpose: https://twitter.com/KarluskaP/status/1306028860144857089

Chinese virologist claims she has proof COVID-19 was made in Wuhan lab https://trib.al/Fn8DDFq

Twitter Suspends Account of Chinese Scientist Who Published Paper Alleging Covid Was Created in Wuhan Lab   https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/twitter-suspends-account-china-scientist-who-published-paper-alleging-covid-was

University of Pittsburgh scientists discover antibody that ‘neutralizes’ virus that causes coronavirus

Scientists at the University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine have isolated the biomolecule

The antibody component is 10 times smaller than a full-sized antibody, and has been used to create the drug Ab8, shared in the report published by the researchers in the journal Cell on Monday. The drug is seen as a potential preventative against SARS-CoV-2…

    According to the report, the drug has been “highly effective in preventing and treating” the SARS-CoV-2 infections in mice and hamsters during tests. The drug also reportedly does not bind to human cells, which suggests it will not have negative side-effects in people…

https://www.foxnews.com/health/university-pittsburgh-antibody-neutralizes-coronavirus

A Supercomputer Analyzed Covid-19 — and an Interesting New Theory Has Emerged

The end result, the researchers say, is to release a bradykinin storm — a massive, runaway buildup of bradykinin in the body… As bradykinin builds up in the body, it dramatically increases vascular permeability. In short, it makes your blood vessels leaky

   Interestingly, Jacobson’s team also suggests vitamin D as a potentially useful Covid-19 drug. The vitamin is involved in the RAS system and could prove helpful by reducing levels of another compound, known as REN. Again, this could stop potentially deadly bradykinin storms from forming. The researchers note that vitamin D has already been shown to help those with Covid-19.

https://elemental.medium.com/a-supercomputer-analyzed-covid-19-and-an-interesting-new-theory-has-emerged-31cb8eba9d63

The U.S. Federal Trade Commission is preparing a possible antitrust lawsuit against Facebook, a source says https://trib.al/cfI3r0U

Late Monday night, Biden’s VP Kamala Harris blew up social media when she revealed the Dems’ presidential scam.

Kamala Paints Picture of a ‘Harris Administration … with Joe Biden’ for Latino Voters

Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) may only be vice-presidential nominee on the Democratic ticket, but she’s already promising that a Harris administration with Joe Biden” will be a boon to voters…

    “A Harris administration together with Joe Biden as the president of the United States, the Biden-Harris administration will provide access to 100 billion dollars in low-interest loans and investments for minority-business owners,” she added…Harris’ remarks come as some Democrat strategists continue to express concerns over Biden’s fitness and stamina for the presidency…

https://www.breitbart.com/2020-election/2020/09/14/kamala-harris-paints-picture-a-harris-administration-together-with-joe-biden-to-latino-voters-2020/

Chicago Tribune’s lead columnist @John_Kass: Out of her own mouth @SenKamalaHarris lets America in on the scam. “A Harris Administration together with Joe Biden.” Democrats are playing a grifter’s trick. Joe is just the marionette, all wood and strings, head bobbing on command.

Joe Biden, speaking in Tampa yesterday, also stated, “Harris Biden administration.”

@MAGAindex: Umm… the Harris/Biden administration language appears to have been written that way on the teleprompter. This is the second day in a row where now both candidates have said it. Are they signaling that Biden is soon to be out?  https://twitter.com/MAGAindex/status/1305935077873012738

Trump Press Sec @kayleighmcenany: Kamala Harris and Puppet @JoeBiden ADMIT that Kamala would be the real president & Joe would be a puppet

Ex-CIA ops officer @BryanDeanWright: Either Joe Biden knows he’s sick or his approval numbers are tanking. Either way, the repeated emphasis on Kamala Harris at Biden’s expense is an ominous development that the media refuses to cover.

Biden got caught waving to an empty field [scam for video clips] when he disembarked from his plane.

https://twitter.com/KarluskaP/status/1305929080634777600

Joe on his jobs for vets plan via @EllaMizrahi12: Biden: “Cause if you could take care, if you were a quartermaster, you can sure in hell take care runnin’ a, you know, a department store uh, thing, you know, where, in the second floor of the ladies department or whatever, you know what I mean?”   https://twitter.com/EllaMizrahi12/status/1305959027126480901

Biden Confuses Iraq and Iran While Lecturing Trump on Foreign Policy

https://thenationalpulse.com/breaking/biden-iraq-iran/

@TrumpWarRoom: Joe Biden, who was vice president when veterans died on secret VA wait lists, says “the VA must be the premier provider of healthcare services to remote our veterans overall well-being.”

https://twitter.com/TrumpWarRoom/status/1305945612790235142

NY Post Editorial Board: If Biden can’t answer questions without a script, how can he run the country? – Joe Biden’s staff won’t even let him do a “spontaneous” Q&A session without a script. Is he really that far gone?…  If he can no longer answer even softball questions without the aid of his overseers, who will really be calling the shots if he wins the White House?…  https://t.co/D7C06EyP7i

CNN: Joe Biden’s Hispanic voter problem is real

https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/15/politics/biden-hispanic-voters/index.html

@JoeBiden plays “Despacito” from his iPhone … Does a bit of a dance, too. [Joe went to FL to garner Hispanic support]  https://twitter.com/HowardMortman/status/1306029799018770434

New evidence makes Hunter Biden’s ‘business’ deals reek worse than ever

Newly released Secret Service travel records for Hunter paint a clearer picture of how extensive these efforts were. The documents, reviewed by Judicial Watch, show that between 2009 and 2014, Hunter made 411 trips across 29 countries. While some of those trips were perhaps leisure and others related to his volunteer work for the World Food Program, many of them appear to be connected to deals that he or his associates either secured or sought with foreign governments and oligarchs.

     For example, Hunter visited China five times between 2009 and 2014. Most notoriously, he traveled with his father aboard Air Force Two in December 2013 as part of an official visit with Chinese officials. Ten days after their return to Washington, Hunter and his associates partnered with the state-owned Bank of China to formally establish BHR, a new, first-of-its-kind fund aimed at making investments outside China through the newly established Shanghai Free Trade Zone…

https://nypost.com/2020/09/14/new-evidence-makes-hunter-bidens-business-deals-reek-worse-than-ever/

It took GOP Senate Leader Mitch McConnell four months to scrounge up the courage to criticize mob violence and Dems’ silent acquiescence.

@ChadPergram: McConnell: For months, the political left in this country has put all its might behind a false narrative that says disorder is acceptable, riots are free speech, and law enforcement is the real enemy of certain communities.  We are now at the point where some of our Democratic colleagues survey the nation, survey the way law enforcement officers are being treated, and decide the answer is to keep rhetorically throwing cops under the bus

The riots in Lancaster, Pennsylvania lasted only one night.  Here’s why:

Lancaster protesters held on whopping $1 million bail each after alleged riots

https://nypost.com/2020/09/15/lancaster-protesters-held-on-1-million-bail-after-alleged-riots/

W Bush Press Sec. @AriFleischer: One of the fascinating things about today’s peace agreement is how the tactics of the Trump WH were the opposite of what the “experts” called for. For decades, the experts did the same thing and it didn’t work. Trump and Kushner were mocked along the way. They proved right. [Ala Reagan vs. the USSR proved all those Ivy League PoliSci & Int’l Relations types wrong]

Tucker Carlson blames Democrats for ambush on LA deputies because they ‘tell people cops are evil agents of racist genocide’ – ‘He tried to kill them because they were cops,’ Carlson said in his opening monologue on Monday night. ‘Can we really be surprised that he tried to do that? Since the beginning of summer, the Democratic Party has told us that the police are evil. That they’re killers. Agents of racist genocide. Cops are the problem,’ he continued…

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8735619/Tucker-Carlson-claims-Democrats-blame-ambush-Los-Angeles-deputies.html

@davereaboi: Hacks at CNN. No mention of Middle East peace—“White House event with large crowd, little social distancing.”  [This is not a Babylon Bee piece!] https://twitter.com/davereaboi/status/1305960249023758336

In 2017, after Trump moved the US Embassy to Jerusalem, John Kerry, many Dems, foreign policy experts and the MSM stated that the move would create and explosion in the Middle East.  How can so many solons be so wrong so much of the time?

end

Well that is all for today

I will see you THURSDAY night.

Tomorrow night I will be publishing later than my normal time..probably around 7 pm or so

Friday I will publish quite early and adjust late in the evening.

H

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