OCT 9F//GOLD UP A STRONG $31.10 TO $1921.20//SILVER UP $1.00 TO $24.83//GOLD TONNAGE STANDING AT THE COMEX: 101.3 TONNES//CORONAVIRUS UPDATES THROUGHOUT THE GLOBE//CHINA VS USA//THE GENERALLY MOST ACCURATE POLLSTER, THE TRAFALGAR GROUP PICKS TRUMP TO WIN THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE WITH 275 SEATS//HUNTER BIDEN’S PARTNER IN BURISMA CONVICTED OF FRAUD AND SENT TO JAIL//MORE SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

GOLD:GOLD:$1921.20 UP  $31.10   The quote is London spot price

Silver:$24.83 UP $1.00    London spot price ( cash market)

Closing access prices:  London spot

i)Gold : $1930.50  LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

ii)SILVER:  $25.15//LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

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CLOSING FUTURES PRICES:  KEY MONTHS

OCT GOLD:  1926.20  CLOSE 1.30 PM//   SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE OCT /:  $5.00  CONTANGO//ABOVE NORMAL CONTANGO

DEC. GOLD  $1927.30   CLOSE 1.30 PM      SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE DEC   $6.10/ CONTANGO   ( $1.50  ABOVE NORMAL CONTANGO) //

CLOSING SILVER FUTURE MONTH

SILVER NOV COMEX CLOSE;   $25.05…1:30 PM.//SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE SEPT//  :    ( 22 CENTS CONTANGO/    21 CENTS ABOVE NORMAL CONTANGO//)

SILVER DECEMBER  CLOSE:     $25.19  1:30  PM SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE DEC.       :  37  CENTS PER OZ  CONTANGO (   30 CENTS ABOVE NORMAL) CONTANGO

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COMEX DATA

 
 
 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

receiving today:  426/1844

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: OCTOBER 2020 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,888.600000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 10/08/2020 DELIVERY DATE: 10/12/2020
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
072 C GOLDMAN 666 102
099 H DB AG 44
104 C MIZUHO 37
118 H MACQUARIE FUT 70
132 C SG AMERICAS 9
135 H RAND 4
323 C HSBC 17
332 H STANDARD CHARTE 75
355 C CREDIT SUISSE 13
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 8
624 C BOFA SECURITIES 2
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 5 135
657 H MORGAN STANLEY 179
661 C JP MORGAN 13 353
661 H JP MORGAN 73
690 C ABN AMRO 40 53
709 C BARCLAYS 283
709 H BARCLAYS 318
732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 1
737 C ADVANTAGE 1
800 C MAREX SPEC 17 26
880 C CITIGROUP 23
880 H CITIGROUP 1097
905 C ADM 2 22
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 1,844 1,844
MONTH TO DATE: 27,009

ISSUED:13

GOLDMAN SACHS STOPPED 102 CONTRACTS.

 
 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  OCT. CONTRACT: 1844 NOTICE(S) FOR 184,400 OZ  (5.735 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  27009 NOTICES FOR 2,700,900 OZ ( 84.009 tonnes) 

SILVER//OCTOBER CONTRACT

 

16 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 80,000  OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month: 1735 for 8,675,000  oz

BITCOIN MORNING QUOTE  $11040  UP 116

BITCOIN AFTERNOON QUOTE.:  UP $11,042  118 DOLLARS .

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GLD AND SLV INVENTORIES:

WITH GOLD UP $31.10  AND NO PHYSICAL TO BE FOUND ANYWHERE:

WITH ALL REFINERS CLOSED//MEXICO ORDERING ALL MINES SHUT:   WHERE ARE THEY GETTING THE “PHYSICAL?

GLD: 1,271.52 TONNES OF GOLD//

WITH SILVER UP 100 CENTS TODAY: AND WITH NO SILVER AROUND:

SLV: 560.263  MILLION OZ./

 

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Let us have a look at the data for today

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IN SILVER THE COMEX OI ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 411 CONTRACTS FROM 156,398 UP TO 156,809, AND CLOSER TO  OUR NEW RECORD OF 244,710, (FEB 25/2020. THE GAIN IN OI OCCURRED WITH OUR SMALL $0.02 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. IT SEEMS THAT THE GAIN IN COMEX OI IS  DUE TO CONSIDERABLE BANKER AND ALGO  SHORT COVERING..  COUPLED AGAINST AN EXTREMELY  WEAK EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL (193 CONTRACTS). WE ALSO HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION, AND A GOOD INCREASE IN SILVER OUNCES STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR OCT.  WE HAD A  STRONG NET GAIN IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 604 CONTRACTS  (SEE CALCULATIONS BELOW).

WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A TINY  NUMBER OF  COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE:  193, AS WE HAD THE FOLLOWING ISSUANCE:  OCT 0;  DEC:  193, MARCH  0 FOR ZERO ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  193 CONTRACTS. THE BANKERS ARE NOW BEING BITTEN BY THOSE SERIAL FORWARDS (EFP’S CIRCULATING IN LONDON)AS THEY ARE NOW BEING EXERCISED AND COMING BACK TO NEW YORK FOR REDEMPTION OF METAL.  THE COST TO SERVICE THESE SERIAL FORWARDS IS HIGH TO OUR BANKERS  BUT THEY HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO ISSUE A FEW OF THEM!

HISTORY OF SILVER OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR THE PAST 26 MONTHS.

 

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

7.32     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

2.630     MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOV.

20.970   MILLION OZ  FINAL STANDING IN DEC

5.075     MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JAN

1.480    MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN FEB

23.005  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAR

4.660  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR APRIL

45.220 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAY

2.205  MILLION OF FINAL STANDING FOR JUNE

86.470 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JULY.

6.475 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN AUGUST

55.400 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN SEPT

9.525 MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT.

THURSDAY, AGAIN OUR CROOKS USED COPIOUS PAPER IN ORDER TO LIQUIDATE SILVER’S PRICE…AND THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE $0.02) ).. AND, OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE ANY SILVER LONGS AS WE HAD A GOOD GAIN IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES (604 CONTRACTS). NO DOUBT THE GAIN IN OI WAS DUE TO i) SOME BANKER/ALGO SHORT COVERING.  WE ALSO HAD  ii)  A SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS 2) A GOOD GAIN IN SILVER OZ  STANDING  FOR OCTOBER, iii) GOOD COMEX GAIN AND iv) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION. YOU CAN BET THE FARM THAT OUR BANKERS  ARE DESPERATE TO LIQUIDATE THEIR HUGE SHORT POSITIONS IN SILVER..

We have now switched to silver for our spreaders!!

 

FOR DETAILS ON THE SPREADING EXERCISE HERE IS A BRIEF OUTLINE:

 

SPREADING OPERATIONS/NOW SWITCHING TO SILVER  (WE SWITCH OVER TO GOLD ON NOV  1)

SPREADING OPERATION FOR OUR NEWCOMERS:

FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS:

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED IN SILVER  AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF NOV.

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEW, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE SPREADERS AND THE CRIMINAL ELEMENT BEHIND IT:

 HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

 

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR GOLD..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR SILVER.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

.

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO SILVER AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT. HEADING TOWARDS THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV FOR GOLD:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCT. BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

 
 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

OCT

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY /FOR MONTH OF OCT:

2176 CONTRACTS (FOR 7 TRADING DAY(S) TOTAL 2176 CONTRACTS) OR 10.880 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 310 CONTRACTS OR 1.554 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF OCT: 10.880 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 1.554% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2020 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          1,467.93 MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2020 EFP TOTALS SO FAR: 181.61 MILLION OZ

FEB 2020 EFP’S TOTAL :  ……     259.600 MILLION OZ

MARCH EFP’S …..                     452.280 MILLION OZ  //TOTALS//AND A NEW RECORD FOR THE MONTH)

APRIL EFP                               95.355 MILLION OZ.  (EX. FOR PHYSICALS BECOMING A LOT LESS)

MAY EFP FINAL:                     77.27 MILLION OZ

JUNE EFP                              71.15 MILLION OZ.

JULY EFP                               133.95 MILLION OZ/ (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS STARTING TO RISE EXPONENTIALLY AGAIN)

AUGUST EFP                         127.46 MILLION OZ (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS STARTING TO DECREASE AGAIN)

SEPT EFP                                78.360 MILLION OZ (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS DRAMATICALLY FALLING OFF A CLIFF)

OCT EFP                                 10.880   MILLION OZ (LOOKS LIKE THEY ARE FALLING OFF A CLIFF IN  NUMBERS)

RESULT: WE HAD A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 442, WITH OUR  $0.02 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ///THURSDAY.…THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A WEAK SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 193 CONTRACTS WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS.

TODAY WE GAINED A GOOD SIZED 604 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES (WITH OUR $0.02 RISE IN PRICE)//

THE TALLY//EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL

i.e 193 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH A GOOD SIZED INCREASE OF 411 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND HAPPENED WITH OUR $0.02 GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER/AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $23.83 // THURSDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY. 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 0.784 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 112% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW OCT  DELIVERY MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 16 NOTICE(S) FOR  80,000 OZ OF SILVER.

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018. AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.70//TODAY’S RECORD OF 244,705 WAS SET WITH A PRICE OF: 18.91 (FEB 25/2020)

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 

GOLD

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A SMALL 2688 CONTRACTS TO 548,0107 AND FURTHER FROM OUR NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE SMALL SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI OCCURRED DESPITE OUR  GAIN IN PRICE  OF $2.00 /// COMEX GOLD TRADING// THURSDAY. WE PROBABLY HAD CONSIDERABLE BANKER/ALGO SHORT COVERING ACCOMPANYING OUR SMALL EXCHANGE FOR  PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. WE PROBABLY HAD TINY LONG LIQUIDATION AND ANOTHER STRONG INCREASE IN GOLD OUNCES STANDING AT THE COMEX….THIS ALL HAPPENED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $2.00. 

WE HAD A VOLUME OF 0    4 -GC CONTRACTS//OPEN INTEREST  73//

WE HAD A SMALL LOSS OF 301 CONTRACTS  (0.9362 TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 2387 CONTRACTS:

CONTRACT . OCT: 0 DEC: 2387; FEB: 0  ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO//TOTAL: 2354.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 548,107. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EXCHANGE DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A TINY SIZED DECREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 301 CONTRACTS: 2688 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 2387 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI LOSS OF 301 CONTRACTS OR 0.9362 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:

WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (2387) ACCOMPANYING THE SMALL SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI  (2688 OI): TOTAL LOSS IN THE TWO EXCHANGES:  301 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1 ) CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING AND CONSIDERABLE ALGO SHORT COVERING ,2.)A HUGE INCREASE STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR THE FRONT OCT. MONTH TO 101.4 TONNES)  3)  TINY LONG LIQUIDATION ;4) SMALL COMEX OI LOSS AND 5) SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL  ...ALL OF THIS WAS COUPLED WITH OUR GAIN IN GOLD PRICE TRADING//THURSDAY//$2.00.

WE ARE BEGINNING TO WITNESS A LACK OF EXCHANGE FOR GOLD PHYSICALS UNDERWRITTEN DUE TO PREMIUMS STARTING TO REAPPEAR IN THE FUTURE PRICE OF GOLD VS LONDON SPOT. THE COST TO THE BANKERS IS JUST TOO GREAT TO ENGAGE IN THESE VEHICLES ONCE THIS OCCURS.

 
 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2020 INCLUDING TODAY

OCT.

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF OCT : 11,717 CONTRACTS OR 1,171,700 oz OR 36.44 TONNES (7 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 1555 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 7 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 36.44 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2019, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 36.44/3550 x 100% TONNES =1.02% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2020 TO DATE   3,592.28  TONNES

JANUARY 2220 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE; : 570.19 TONNES

FEB 2020 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE :            653.78 TONNES

MARCH TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE                1,098.93  TONNES  (*AND A NEW ALL TIME RECORD ISSUANCE//22 DAYS)

APRIL TOTAL EFP. ISSUANCE:               243.45  TONNES  (EFP ISSUANCE BECOMING A LOT LESS)

MAY TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                     248.68 TONNES (EFP ISSUANCE STILL LOW// PREMIUM COST TO THE BANKERS IS HUGE..SO ISSUANCE IS LESS)

JUNE TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                     192.06 TONNES (EFP ISSUANCE EXTREMELY LOW)

JULY TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;                       313.09 TONNES ..(EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS REVERSE COURSE AND ARE NOW INCREASING!)

AUGUST TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;                 150.78 TONNES  FINAL (AGAIN: RETREATING IN NUMBERS)

SEPT TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                       178.49 TONNES (EFP’s AGAIN RISING DUE TO BACKWARDATION/LOWER FUTURE PREMIUMS//THUS LESS COST TO CARRY)

OCT TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE.                        36.44 TONNES (LOOKS LIKE THESE ARE DROPPING IN NUMBERS AGAIN)

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, ROSE BY A GOOD SIZED 411 CONTRACTS FROM 156,398 UP TO 156,809 AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 3/4 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

THE GOOD SIZED GAIN IN OI SILVER COMEX WAS PRIMARILY DUE TO 1)   CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING//ALGO SHORT COVERING , 2) A WEAK ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (SEE BELOW), 3) A GOOD INCREASE IN STANDING  FOR SILVER AT THE COMEX FOR OCT., AND 4) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION 

EFP ISSUANCE 193  CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 OCT: 0 AND DEC. 193 AND MARCH:  0  ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 193 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI GAIN OF 442 CONTRACTS TO THE 193 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A GOOD SIZED GAIN OF 635 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 3.02 MILLION  OZ, OCCURRED WITH OUR $0.02  RISE IN PRICE///

 

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL..THE EVIDENCE IS CLEAR: HUGE AMOUNTS OF PHYSICAL STANDING FOR BOTH  SILVER AND GOLD .

 

(report Harvey)

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)FRIDAY MORNING/ THURSDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 54.02 PTS OR 1.68%   //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 74.22 OR .31%    /The Nikkei closed DOWN 155.22 POINTS OR 0.61%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.11%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed /Oil UP TO 40.78 dollars per barrel for WTI and 43.01 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MIXED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP  AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.7018. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.6906 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS //TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED//CORONAVIRUS/PANDEMIC/TRUMP TESTS POSITIVE FOR COVID 19  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 
 
 

COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST  FELL BY BY A SMALL 2688 CONTRACTS TO 548,107 MOVING FURTHER FROM OUR  RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020).  AND THIS SMALL  COMEX DECREASE OCCURRED WITH OUR  RISE OF $2.00 IN GOLD PRICING /THURSDAY’S COMEX TRADING/). WE ALSO HAD A  SMALL EFP ISSUANCE (2387 CONTRACTS).   WE ALSO PROBABLY HAD  1)  SOME CONSIDERABLE BANKER//ALGO SHORT COVERING,  2)   TINY LONG LIQUIDATION  AND 3)  GOOD INCREASE IN GOLD TONNAGE STANDING AT THE  COMEX//OCT. DELIVERY MONTH (SEE BELOW) …  AS WE ENGINEERED A TINY SIZED LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 301 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE LATELY WITNESSED THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL….. AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS.

(SEE BELOW)

WE  HAD 0    4 -GC VOLUME//open interest REMAINS AT 74

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A SMALL SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 2354 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:   OCT: 0  DEC 2387; FEB// ’21 0 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2387  CONTRACTS.

YOU WILL FIND THAT WHEN WE HAVE A GOOD PREMIUM IN THE FUTURES/SPOT, THEN THE NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS DECLINE IN NUMBERS.  THE COST IS JUST TOO MUCH FOR THEM TO ISSUE. TODAY THAT PREMIUM WAS SMALL AND THUS A LITTLE MORE THAN USUAL OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WERE ISSUED.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 301 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 2387 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE LOST A SMALL SIZED 2688 COMEX CONTRACTS.. THE BIG NEWS IS THE POWERFUL LEVEL OF OCTOBER 2020 CONTRACTS STANDING FOR DELIVERY. ( 101.362 tonnes).

THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT ROSE $2.00).  AND, THEY WERE  SOMEWHAT SUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING SOME LONGS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE TOTAL LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES REGISTERED A SMALL   0.9362 TONNES,

NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES :: 301 CONTRACTS OR 30,100 OZ OR 0.9362 TONNES.

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT COMMODITY FUTURES OPEN INTEREST SHOULD APPROXIMATE 3% OF TOTAL PRODUCTION.  IN GOLD THE WORLD PRODUCES AROUND 3500 TONNES PER YEAR BUT ONLY 2200 TONNES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE WEST (THUS EXCLUDING RUSSIA, CHINA ETC..WHO KEEP 100% OF THEIR PRODUCTION)

THUS IN GOLD WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:  548,107 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS X 100 OZ PER CONTRACT = 54.81 MILLION OZ/32,150 OZ PER TONNE =  1704 TONNES

THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST REPRESENTS 1704/2200 OR 77.47% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF GOLD.

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 222,711 contracts// volume  very poor/

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  202,601 contracts//  volume:  VERY POOR //most of our traders have left for London

 

OCT 9 /2020

OCT. GOLD CONTRACT MONTH

 
 
 
 
 
INITIAL STANDING FOR OCT GOLD
 
 
 
 
 
 
Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
 
50,123/409 oz
JPMorgan
Malca
Manfra
 
includes 550 kilobars and 1000 kilobars
 
 
 
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz 176,701.896 oz

 

BRINKS

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz 0
OZ
No of oz served (contracts) today
 
1844 notice(s)
 
 184,400 OZ
(5.735 TONNES)
 
 
 
 
No of oz to be served (notices)
5579 contracts
(557,900 oz)
17.35 TONNES
 
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
27,009 notices
 
2,700,900 OZ
 
84.009 TONNES
 
 
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

We had 1 deposit into the dealer

i) Into Brinks:  176,701.896 oz

 
total deposit: 176,701.896 oz

 

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

 

we had 0 deposit into the customer account

total customer deposit:  nil

 

we had 3 gold withdrawals from the customer account:

i) Out of JPMorgan:  289.359 oz
ii) Out of Malca  17,683.050 oz  (550 kilobars)
iii) Out of Manfra: 32,151.0000 oz  (1000 kilobars

total withdrawals; 50,123.409 oz  oz

We had 3  kilobar transactions  +

ADJUSTMENTS: 3 // 

Customer to deaer:

i) Malca:  76,390.776 oz

ii) Scotia:  385.800 oz (12 kilobars)

dealer to customer:

Brinks  160,787.151 oz 

The front month of OCT registered a total of 7,423 contracts for a LOSS of 2939 contracts. We had 3105 notices filed yesterday so we gained 166 contracts or 16,600 additional oz will stand for delivery in this active delivery month of October. In gold we have not seen queue jumping start so early in the month. Thus you can bet the farm that throughout October, the total number of gold oz standing will increase from this level.

November gained 44 contracts to stand at 1391.

The big December contract LOST 2547 contracts DOWN to 441,642 contracts..

THE BIG STORY AGAIN TODAY IS THE HIGH OI STANDING FOR OCTOBER (101.362 tonnes). GENERALLY OCTOBER IS A POOR DELIVERY MONTH AS MOST INVESTORS PREFER TO SKIP THIS MONTH AND MOVE STRAIGHT TO DECEMBER.  IT LOOKS LIKE SOME MAJOR ENTITY(GOLDMAN SACHS) JUST CANNOT WAIT FOR DECEMBER AS THEY ARE MAKING THEIR MOVE ON OCTOBER FOR PHYSICAL METAL. GOLDMAN SACHS ONE OF THE LEADERS OF THE NEW LONDON LME EXCHANGE NEEDS THE GOLD INVENTORY FOR LIQUIDITY AND INITIAL CONTRIBUTION WITH OTHER MAJOR PLAYERS. THE MAJOR DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THIS MONTH AND OTHER MONTHS IS THAT THIS GOLD STANDING IN OCTOBER WILL LEAVE THE COMEX AND HEAD FOR LONDON.

We had  1844 notices filed today for  184,400 oz OR 5.735 TONNES.

FOR THE OCT 2020 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from
JPMorgan dealer account and  13 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 1844  contract(s) of which 73  notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 353 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 102 notices received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)
 

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the OCT /2020. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (27,009) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  OCT (7423 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today (1844 x 100 oz per contract) equals 3,258,800 OZ OR 101.362 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this active month of Oct

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the OCT/2020 contract month:

No of notices filed so far (27009, x 100 oz +7423 OI) for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (1844) x 100 oz which equals 3,258,800 oz standing OR 101.362 TONNES in this  active delivery month. This is a HUGE amount for gold standing for a OCT delivery month (a poor active delivery month).

We gained  166 contracts or an additional 16,600 oz will stand on this side of the pond searching for metal.

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:  BRINKS

592,648.822 oz NOW PLEDGED  SEPT 15.2020/HSBC  18.433 TONNES ( A HUGE INCREASE FROM 10.6)

42,548.308.00 PLEDGED  APRIL 3/2020: SCOTIA:            1.3234 tonnes

deleted Int. Delaware pledge July 7  (600 tonnes)

277,934.09 oz  (some deleted august 3)         JPM  8.644 TONNES

610,238.285 oz pledged June 12/2020 Brinks/   July 2/July 21               19.017 tonnes

67,289.041 oz Pledged August 21/regular account 2.092 tonnes JPM

total pledged gold:  1,590,658.551 oz                                     49.476 tonnes

 

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES…. WE HAVE 494.04 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS i.e. 101.362 tonnes

CALCULATION OF REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SETTLED UPON:

total registered or dealer  17,489,024.870 oz or 543.988 tonnes
 
 
total weight of pledged:  1,590,658/551 oz or 49.48 tonnes
 
 
thus:
 
registered gold that can be used to settle upon: 15,898,366.0  (494.04 tonnes)
 
 
 
true registered gold  (total registered – pledged tonnes  15,890,366.0 (494.04 tonnes)
 
 
 
total eligible gold:  19,852,253.835 oz (617.49 tonnes) dropping in weight
 

total registered, pledged  and eligible (customer) gold  37,375,177.646 oz 1,162.52 tonnes (INCLUDES 4 GC GOLD)

total 4 GC gold:   126.34 tonnes

total gold net of 4 GC:  1036.18 tonnes

end

I have compiled  data with respect to registered (or dealer) gold taken on first day notice for each of the past 24 months

The data begins on first day notice for the May month taken on the last day of July 2018. and it continues to present day.

I then took, how many deliveries were recorded by the CME for each and every month.  I also included for reference the price of gold on first day notice.

The first graph is a logarithmic  graph and the second graph, linear.

You can see the huge explosion of registered gold at the comex along with deliveries.

 
THE DATA AND GRAPHS:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

THE GOLD COMEX SEEMS TO BE  UNDER SEVERE ASSAULT FOR PHYSICAL

END

 
 
 
 
OCT 9/2020

And now for the wild silver comex results

 
 

And now for the wild silver comex results

INITIAL STANDINGS

OCT. SILVER COMEX CONTRACT MONTH//INITIAL STANDING

Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
1,247,922.830 oz
 
CNT
Delaware
HSBC
 
 
 
 
 
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz
 
 
 
 
 
 
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
2,334,999.550 oz
 
 
JPMorgan
Loomis
CNT
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
No of oz served today (contracts)
16
 
CONTRACT(S)
(80,000 OZ)
 
No of oz to be served (notices)
170 contracts
 850,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  1735 contracts

 

8,675,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
 
 
We had 0 deposits into the dealer:
 
 

total dealer deposits: nil      oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had 3 deposits into the customer account (ELIGIBLE ACCOUNT)

i)into JPMorgan:  593,695.700 oz

ii) Into CNT  840,760.910 oz

iii) Into Loomis: 900,542.940  

 

 

JPMorgan now has 187.8 million oz of  total silver inventory or 49.35% of all official comex silver. (187.8 million/380.532 million

total customer deposits today:  2,334,999.50   oz

we had 3 withdrawals:

i) Out of DELAWARE  3978.6 oz
ii) Out of CNT: 1,193,471.86 oz
iii) Out of HSBC:  50,472.37 0z
 
 
 

total withdrawals; 1,247,922.830    oz

We had 0 adjustments/

 

Total dealer(registered) silver: 141.509 million oz

total registered and eligible silver:  380.532 million oz

 

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October had  186 notices outstanding for a LOSS of 20 contracts.  We had 30 notices served upon yesterday so we GAINED 10 contracts or 50,000 additional oz of silver will stand in this non active month of October.

November saw a LOST of 47 notices DOWN to 395 contracts.

December saw a LOSS of 176 contracts DOWN to 131,629 contracts.

 
 

The total number of notices filed today for the OCT 2020. contract month is represented by 16 contract(s) FOR 80,000 oz

 

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in OCT we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 1735 x 5,000 oz = 8,675,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT( 186) and the number of notices served upon today 16x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the OCT/2019 contract month: 1,735 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of OCT  (186)- number of notices served upon today (16) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the OCT contract month .equals 9,525,000 oz. ..VERY STRONG FOR A NON ACTIVE MONTH.

We gained 10 contracts or 50,000 additional oz will  stand for silver metal on this side of the pond as they refused to morph into a London based forwards.

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME : 74,693 CONTRACTS // volume  rather slow//

FOR YESTERDAY  53,875  ,CONFIRMED VOLUME// slower than normal/

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 53,875 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 0.269 billion  OZ 38.4% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV  FALLS TO- 3.85% ((OCT 9/2020)

2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV  FALLS TO -1.37% to NAV:   (OCT 9/2020 )

Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/3.85%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA

3. SPROTT CEF .A   FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 19.85 TRADING 19.33///NEGATIVE 3.17

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

OCT 9/WITH GOLD UP $31.10 TODAY/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1271.52 TONNES

OCT 8/WITH GOLD UP $2.00 TODAY, NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1271.52 TONNES

OCT 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $16.00 DOLLARS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.88 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1271.52 TONNES

OCT 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.70 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1275.60 TONNES

OCT 5/WITH GOLD UP $12.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.59 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1275.60 TONNES

OCT 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.30 TODAY, A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 9.3 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1278.19 TONNES

OCT 1/WITH GOLD UP $19.70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1268.89 TONNES

SEPT 30//WITH GOLD DOWN $6.80 TODAY, NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1268.89 TONNES

SEPT 29/WITH GOLD UP $19.10//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1268.89 TONNES

/SEPT 28//WITH GOLD UP $14.30 DOLLARS: A HUGE  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.05 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1268.89 TONNES

SEPT 25//WITH GOLD DOWN 410.80 TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .3 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1266.84 TONNES

SEPT 24/WITH GOLD UP $9.80 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1267.14TONNES.

SEPT 23//WITH GOLD DOWN $28.00 TODAY//A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 11.68 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1267.14 TONNES

SEPT 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.50 TODAY, A MONSTROUS CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 18.98 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD ENTER THE GLD///// INVENTORY RESTS AT 1278.62TONNES

SEPT 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $47.20 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 12.94 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1259.64TONNES

SEPT 18/WITH GOLD UP $10.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS THIS WEEKEND AT: 1246.99 TONNES

SEPT 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $18.05 TODAY: A SMALL  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .58 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1246.99 TONNES

SEPT 16.WITH GOLD UP $4.90 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1247.57 TONNES

SEPT 15//WITH GOLD UP $2.25 TODAY: A SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .43 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1247.57 TONNES

SEPT 14/WITH GOLD  DOWN 90 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.96 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1248.00 TONNES

SEPT 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.80//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1252.96 TONNES

SEPT 10/WITH GOLD UP $8.85 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.92 TONNES INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1252.96 TONNES

SEPT 9/WITH GOLD UP $19.55 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1250.04 TONNES

SEPT 8/WITH GOLD UP $8.20 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1250.04 TONNES

SEPT 4//WITH GOLD DOWN $3.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1250.04 TONNES

SEPT 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.50 ON THIS 2ND DAY OF A 3 DAY RAID:  NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1250.04 TONNES

SEPT 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $34.00 TODAY, WE HAVE 2 SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: 2 WITHDRAWALS OF .87 TONNES AND.59 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1250.04 TONNES

SEPT 1/WITH GOLD UP $7.10 TODAY, WE HAVE NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1251.50 TONNES

AUGUST 31//WITH GOLD UP $5.90 TODAY/WE HAD NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1251.50 TONNES/

AUGUST 28/WITH GOLD UP $38.20 TODAY, WE SURPRISINGLY HAD A .59 TONNE WITHDRAWAL//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1251.50 TONNES

AUGUST 27/WITH GOLD DOWN 17.50 TODAY: WE HAD A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A DEPOSIT OF 3.24 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY REST AT 1252.09 TONNES

AUGUST 26/WITH GOLD UP $26.70  TODAY/  WE  HAD A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.53 TONNES FROM THE GLD//RESTS AT 1248.85 TONNES

AUGUST 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.60 TODAY, WE  HAD NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//RESTS AT 1252.38 TONNES

AUGUST 24//WITH GOLD DOWN $7.20 TODAY: WE HAD NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: /INVENTORY RESTS AT 1258.38 TONNES

 

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Inventory rests tonight at

OCT 9/ GLD INVENTORY 1271.52 tonnes*

LAST;  918 TRADING DAYS:   +331.68 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN ADDED THE GLD

LAST 818 TRADING DAYS://+510.61  TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

Now the SLV Inventory/

OCT 9/WITH SILVER UP $1.00 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 560.263

OCT 8/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.303 MILLION OF FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 560.263 MILLION OZ//

OCT 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 466,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 561.566 MILLION OZ/

OCT 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 51 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 561.100 MILLION OZ//

OCT 5/WITH SILVER UP 53 CENTS TODAY: A MONSTROUS CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A  DEPOSIT OF 11.984 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV //INVENTORY RESTS AT 561.100 MILLION OZ//

OCT 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 549.116 MILLION OZ//

OCT 1/WITH SILVER UP 66 CENTS TODAY, A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.489 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 549.116 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 30//WITH SILVER DOWN 96 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 186,000 OZ FROM THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 550.605 MILLION OZ..

SEPT 29/WITH SILVER UP 86 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 550.791 MILLILON OZ//

SEPT 28//WITH SILVER UP 48 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 3.769 MILLION OZ CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 550.791 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: 2 TRANSACTIONS: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 8.28 MILION OZ FROM THE SLV AND A DEPOSIT OF 1.861 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 547.022 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 24//WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 553.443 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 23//WITH SILVER DOWN $1.41: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.048 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 553.443 MILLION OZ///

SEPT 22/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY: A MONSTROUS CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.141 MILLION OZ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 555.491 MILLION OZ..

SEPT 21/WITH SILVER DOWN $2.43 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.862 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 553.350MILLION OZ//

SEPT 18. WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 555.212 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 31 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.537 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 555.212 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 16//WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 558.749 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 15/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.793 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 558.749 MILLION OZ..

SEPT 14/WITH SILVER UP 47 CENTS TODAY:  HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: 2 WITHDRAWALS A) 1.675 MILLION OZ AND ANOTHER B) 0.931 MILLION OZ/ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 555.956 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 39 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 558.562 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 10/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.607 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 558.562 MILLION OZ.

SEPT 9/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: STRANGE: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.63 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 561.169 MILLION OZ

SEPT 8/WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 564.799 MILLION OZ

SEPT 4//WITH SILVER DOWN 15  CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 3.631 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 564.799 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 3//WITH SILVER DOWN 50 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.258 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 568.430 MILLION OZ/./

SEPT 2.WITH SILVER DOWN $1.04 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.365 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY REST AT 571.688 MILLION OZ.

SEPT 1//WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 574.053 MILLION OZ//

 

OCT 9.2020:

SLV INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT

560.263 MILLION OZ

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

My good:  Real yields for the entire gambit of global bonds total an astonishing 31 trillion dollars

(JPMorgan/Bloomberg/GATA)

JPMorgan says real yields are negative for $31 trillion of bonds

 
 Section: 

 

By Anchalee Worrachate
Bloomberg News
Thursday, October 8, 2020

JPMorgan Chase & Co. says the stockpile of developed sovereign debt with a negative yields adjusted for inflation has doubled over the past two years to $31 trillion.

As the Federal Reserve prepares to let prices run hotter to fix the pandemic-hit labor market, the Wall Street bank has a message for investors: Get used to it.

… 

Despite how logic-defying the phenomenon is, negative real yields will likely stay with us for a long period to come,” wrote strategists including Boyang Liu and Eddie Yoon.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stressed this week that the U.S. economy needs more fiscal support and has promised to keep rates low to allow for a recovery. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-08/jpmorgan-says-real-yi…

* * *

END

Pam and Russ Martens are astonished as I am: Citibank fines $400 million dollars for doing something that is secret.  Give me a break…

(Pam and Russ Martens//Wall Street on Parade)

Pam and Russ Martens: Citigroup fined $400 million for doing something so bad it must be kept secret

 
 Section: 

 

By Pam and Russ Martens
Wall Street on Parade
Thursday, October 8, 2020

Federal regulators are rapidly becoming bigger Dark Pools of information than those secretive stock exchanges run by the big banks on Wall Street.

On Tuesday, September 29, when all eyes were focused on the presidential debate to occur that evening, the Justice Department issued a press release announcing the fourth and fifth felony counts against JPMorgan Chase in the past six years. In an unprecedented move, the Justice Department did not hold a press conference to explain why the country’s largest bank is allowed to perpetually commit felonies with no change in management.

… 

The bank admitted to the charges and was put on a three-year probation — its third such probation in six years. Jamie Dimon, the chairman and CEO of the bank, who has presided over all five felony counts, was left in place at the bank.

Yesterday, when all eyes were on the vice-presidential debate last night, the Federal Reserve and Office of the Comptroller of the Currency announced consent decrees with Citigroup, the third largest bank in the country. The OCC imposed a $400 million fine on Citigroup’s federally-insured commercial bank, Citibank, and stated in its consent order that it had “identified unsafe or unsound practices with respect to the bank’s internal controls, including, among other things, an absence of clearly defined roles and responsibilities and noncompliance with multiple laws and regulations.”

“Noncompliance with multiple laws and regulations” means the bank has broken “multiple laws and regulations.” But apparently the laws it broke, how it broke them, and who benefited and by how much were just too explosive a story to see the light of day. The consent orders from both the OCC and Federal Reserve failed to specify what crimes Citigroup had committed and instead used vague generalities such as “unsafe or unsound practices.” …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://wallstreetonparade.com/2020/10/citigroup-is-slapped-with-a-400-m…

* * *

END

Alasdair Macleod is correct:  China after being off for one week, has started buying gold in quantity

KingworldNews/A Macleod

Asia is buying gold again, Macleod tells KWN

 
 Section: 

 

11:26a ET Thursday, October 8, 2020

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Asia is buying gold again, GoldMoney research director Alasdair Macleod tells King World News today, adding that Comex gold deliveries remain strong and that rescuing the U.S. economy will require trillions more in money creation. Macleod’s comments are posted at KWN here:

https://kingworldnews.com/alasdair-macleod-asians-buying-gold-again-and-…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

iii) Other physical stories:

A MUST VIEW

ANDREW EXPLAINS WHY GOLD WILL RISE!!

END
 
Gold trading last night and this morning:

Gold Soars Above $1900 As USDollar Plunges

 

After spiking on Tuesday after Trump’s “no deal” tweet, the USDollar has been in free-fall, tumbling to three-week lows this morning…

Source: Bloomberg

That USD weakness has sparked a bid under precious metals, pushing gold futures back above $1900…

 

And silver futures are breaking out…

As Peter Schiff recently noted,

The problem is once you accept the false premise that government stimulus actually helps the economy – that it really is a stimulus – then you’ve kind of lost the argument. Because if borrowing and printing $1.6 trillion, if that’s a good thing, why isn’t borrowing and printing $2.4 trillion a better thing? Because you put the Republicans in the position of arguing that 2.4 trillion is too much of a good thing — that somehow, if we just create 1.6 trillion out of thin air and spend it, that’s really going to help. But if we push it to 2.4, it’s actually going to hurt. Why? I mean, when does something good suddenly become something bad? 

 

Is this the start of a herd-panic at the prospect of $7 trillion in Biden/Harris/AOC stimulus/MMT?

end

https://www.jsmineset.com/2020/10/09/silver-and-gold-shines/

 

https://www.jsmineset.com/2020/10/09/silver-and-gold-shines/

 

Silver And Gold Shines!

 

Posted October 9th, 2020 at 9:22 AM (CST) by J. Johnson & filed under General Editorial.

 

Great and Wonderful Friday Morning Folks,

 

      Gold is up $27.30 with the trade at $1,922.20 and close to the high at $1,923.80 with the low at $1,898. It might be time for Silver to shine with its trade at $24.54, up 65.9 cents with the nearby high at $24.59 and the low, not so nearby at $23.965. Those currencies inside the US Dollar Index is now valuing our fiat at 93.36, down 28.8 points with its low right here at 93.305 with a high at 93.62. Of course, all this happened before 5 am pst, the Comex open, the London close, and after Q lists a few “Everything has meaning” posts.

 

      Venezuela’s current price for Gold is now posting 19,197.97 Bolivar, as the currency popped in another 260.67 in value with Silver gaining 4.553 Bolivar with its last price at 245.093. Argentina’s Peso has given Gold a 2,067.78 A-Peso gain with the last trade at 148,258.14 with Silver’s latest price at 1,892.69 A-Peso’s proving a gain of 35.81 overnight. Gold’s price under the Turkish Lira is trading at 15,248.13, gaining 212.70 T-Lira’s with Silver’s gains adding 3.68 T-Lira’s with the last price set at 194.666. Let us observe the future moves and what happens now that the primary currency is revaluing the prices of precious metals, this could be a quarter to remember!

 

      October Silver’s Delivery Demands now shows a total of 186 fully paid for contracts waiting for receipts with a Volume of 56 already up on the board with a trading range between $24.40 and $24.32 with the last swap at the high, up 60.3 cents, so far today. Thursday’s full day of trading occurred in between $24.175 and $23.925 with the last swap at the low, a gain of 7.7 cents yet the papers pulled the close down to $23.837, where no trade was made, with a total of 19 contracts swapping hands and reducing the delivery count by 20. Things must be really tight in the markets as the Overall Open Interest in Silver gained 254 more shorts in order to keep Silver’s price at yesterday’s close with today’s early morning count at 156,841 sellers against the physicals and as Ag jumped 66 cents.

 

      October Gold’s Delivery Demands now shows a post of 7,423 fully paid for contracts still waiting, and with a Volume of 149 up on the board with a trading range between $1,915.30 and $1,905.10 with the last buy at the high, a gain of $26.70 so far this morning. Thursday’s full day of delivery activity happened in between $1,893 and $1,882.70 with the last buy at $1,890.80, a gain of $7.20 yet the paper controlled close was settled out at $1,888.60, a $5 gain. The pressure is on, and the shorts are stained, as 2,826 paper contracts jumped ship, leaving a total Open Interest of 548,096 to go against the deliveries and against today’s little rally.

 

      American Politics continues as one side, claims that Trump is losing against Biden/Harris, and is so certain they’ve won that they are attempting to use a panel of Trump haters in order to Coup again. The Debate Commission (what are the odds they are all Trump haters?) refuses to allow in-person debate, so President Trump will hold a rally instead. Just look at the crowd gatherings, over the years, between Joe Biden and Trump. I know it’s going to be close, but I do think one will understand who is least popular and who is going to win, even the popular vote, maybe not the late mailed in votes by the dead or illegal. If one Q’s, at the same time the news hits, you would see another viewpoint, which is clearer and more concise, and imo, is the reason why Q came to be.

 

      Here are last night’s 17 (q in numbers) posts; Nothing is random. Everything has meaning. Now that Russia Collusion is a proven lie, when do the trials for treason begin? … We need Justice!!!! We are ready!!!! Let’s go!!!! WWG1WGA. Could it be, all this obstruction was planned ahead of time and the deep state controllers still don’t realize we have the servers? Q, only gives research clues and news posts, for those who wish to look. With that in mind; Was the 25th amendment ‘arrow in the quiver’ planned?
How long ago?
Was it expected POTUS would be in a critical [health] state re: C19?
Recovery unexpected?
Impossible to unwind?
Next: ‘mentally incapacitated’ re: C19 language [“people are dying”] _safety and security to the well being ……….
Combat tactics, Mr. Ryan.  
(Btw, that’s Republican Paul Ryan)

Did you notice the missile within the drop re: 25th amendment?

      Just in, Q posted again with a twitter from John Brennan dated May 8 2018.

Why did Brennan endorse?
Why did POTUS select as Dir?
Buckle up.

 

      It’s a nice day already, Q’s last statement here; Buckle Up, seems to be apropos to end the weekend, don’t you think? With all this American Style politicking, DOJ investigations, and the ever-printing Federal Reserve, we see more reasons for getting physicals in Silver, Gold, Grub, and Guns/Ammo. Have a great weekend, make every day count, and as always …

 

Stay Strong!

Jeremiah Johnson

JeremiahJohnson@cableone.net

More J.Johnson content is available with purchase of a JSMineset subscription.

 

 

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)
 

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

 

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

 

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

 
 
A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)
 

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.
  •  
 

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

 

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

 
 

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early FRIDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar 6.7018

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.6906   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 54.02 PTS OR 1.68%

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 74.22 PTS OR .31%

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 27.38 POINTS OR 0.12%

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL MIXED/

USA dollar index DOWN TO 93.33/Euro RISES TO 1.1801

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: RISES TO. +.04/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 105.87/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 40.78 and Brent: 43.01

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN UP:   ON -SHORE CLOSED/OFF- SHORE: UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO -.54%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 0.73% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.17%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.27: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 0.87  ??

3k Gold at $1914.00 silver at: 24.37   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 28/100 in roubles/dollar) 77.08

3m oil into the 40 dollar handle for WTI and 43 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 105.87 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9129 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0773 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to 0.54%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 0.770% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 1.578%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 7.92..

Futures Jump On “Large-Scale” Deal Optimism

 

Just two days after a Trump tweet “crushed” hopes for any more fiscal stimulus talks, optimism for not just a stimulus deal but for a “large-scale” deal is back front and center, after the White House reversed again late on Thursday after media reports that Trump was concerned by the market reaction to him walking away from stimulus discussions, and signaled that the administration is again leaning toward a large-scale stimulus bill after House Speaker Nancy Pelosi pushed back on the idea of individual measures for parts of the economy hit by the Covid-19 crisis. According to a Pelosi spokesman, Mnuchin told Pelosi in a 40-minute call that President Donald Trump wants agreement on a comprehensive stimulus package, which was enough to send futures blasting higher, and hitting 3460 overnight, a level last seen on Sept 4 just after the market slumped from its all-time highs. The MSCI world equity index was up 0.1% at a more than one month high; yields and the dollar dropped, while the Chinese yuan and gold surged.

However, opposition remains among Senate republicans for a large deal with some saying that enough stimulus has already been injected, and so time is very tight for any legislation to reach the president’s desk before the end of October. As Politico notes, to “get a deal, the White House needs to empower MNUCHIN to get something done — something they haven’t done yet; TRUMP needs to expend serious political capital to get a big vote in House as a signal to the Senate that it has cover voting yes.”

Meanwhile as Bloomberg notes, another obstacle to a successful outcome remains as both Trump and Pelosi are publicly questioning each other’s mental stability.

Democrats are set to announce a bill today that would set up a commission to evaluate using the 25th amendment which can remove a sitting president from office.

With recent trading on Wall Street – particularly in shares of U.S. airlines, which began mass furloughs after a previous payroll support package expired – dictated by negotiations between the White House and Democrats on more fiscal aid, the S&P airlines subindex jumped in the past two sessions and is on track for one of its best months this year after sinking 3% on Tuesday as Trump broke off aid talks. In company news, Xilinxsurged more than 17% after the WSJ reported that AMD was in talks to buy the chipmaker in a deal that could be valued at more than $30 billion. Shares of AMD fell 5.8%. Also overnight Citadel announced it would acquire IMC’s designated market-making unit, firming up its position as the largest floor broker on the NYSE.

Gains in U.S. stocks this week have been concentrated in small- and mid-cap firms, which stand to benefit more from a Biden victory than the large-cap companies that had so far fueled Wall Street’s recovery from the coronavirus lows hit in March, fund managers said. In a sign markets are pricing in a Biden victory, clean energy-related shares have outperformed in recent weeks. The iShares Global Clean Energy ETF has gained 14% so far this month, compared with 4% gains in the S&P 500 energy index. The November VIX contract dropped to 30.25, its lowest level in three weeks, another sign of reduced worries about a contested election.

“Biden seems to have a clear lead following the TV debate and a coronavirus cluster in the White House, which has raised questions about Trump’s crisis management capabilities,” said Mutsumi Kagawa, chief global strategist at Rakuten Securities.

Optimism also prevailed in Europe, where equities rose on Friday, and were set for a second consecutive weekly gain as investors were encouraged by stimulus prospects in the U.S. and positive guidance updates. The Stoxx Europe 600 index was up 0.3% at 730 a.m. ET led by miners and energy shares, while autos underperformed. European stocks also gained as a host of companies raised outlooks, from Denmark’s drugmaker Novo Nordisk to German online clothing retailer Zalando. Stocks fell in Spain, where the government declared a state of emergency for Madrid to control Covid-19. Italy’s 10-year bond yield fell a record low.

“The lower level of uncertainty with regards to the U.S. election combined with the prospect of additional stimulus measures is probably behind the latest positive inflection in equity markets,” says Sylvain Goyon, strategist at Oddo BHF. That’s because Democratic contender Joe Biden’s “increasing lead in the polls gives credence either to a ‘blue wave’ scenario and more stimulus, or more political pressure for President Trump to offer something prior to the vote.”

Earlier in the session, MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0.3%, inching closer to its Aug. 31 peak, which was its highest level since March 2018. China’s CSI300 index gained 2% after the Golden Week holidays. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.7%, with Ningbo Ronbay New Energy and Shandong Jinjing posting the biggest advances. In Japan, the Nikkei dipped 0.1% after reaching a seven-and-a-half-month high; while the Topix declined 0.5%, with Danto and Creek & River falling the most.

In FX, the dollar weakened, heading for its second weekly loss, as the White House signaled it was open to large-scale U.S. stimulus, while the Chinese yuan was the biggest beneficiary of the rising hopes of a Biden win, posting its biggest daily rise in more than four years after the holidays. The greenback declined against most Group-of-10 peers and hits lowest level since Sept. 21, as measured by the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index which fell 0.3% Friday, set for its third straight day of declines; it came under pressure during Asia hours as emerging-market currencies advanced with the yuan better bid following an eight-day holiday in China. NZ’s kiwi led gains as the Swiss franc follows suit. The euro rose 0.1% to $1.1776.

Another notable mover was China’s yuan which rose sharply in onshore trading, catching up with gains seen in offshore trading the past week, as mainland markets reopened after the Golden Week holiday. The yuan climbed as much as 1.4% on Friday while in offshore markets the currency strengthened 0.6%, with both reaching their strongest since April 2019.

The People’s Bank of China put the daily fixing at a stronger-than-expected level. Amid the risk-on mood, the 10-year yield on Chinese sovereign debt reached its highest level since December. Friday’s currency and equity gains “have staying power. Chinese markets will still be supported next week,” said Moh Siong Sim, foreign exchange strategist from Bank of Singapore. He added both asset classes will also be supported by recovering Chinese consumer spending while Joe Biden’s widened poll lead in the U.S. “is also good for Chinese assets as his policy would be less confrontational” than President Donald Trump’s.

In another sign that investors look for a Brexit trade deal to be reached in the end, leveraged funds stepped in to fade a sharp drop in cable following a report that there has been insufficient progress in the talks, a Europe-based trader says. GBP/USD rose earlier 0.3% to 1.2973 high amid broad greenback weakness, only to erase the advance and stabilize around 1.2940.

In rates, Treasuries inched higher after advancing during Asia session and European morning. Treasury yields lower by 0.5bp to 2.2bp across the curve, flattening 2s10s, 5s30s by 1.8bp and 0.9bp; 10-year yields around 0.764%, slightly outperforming bunds while lagging behind gilts. Yields remain higher on week in which prospects for a stimulus agreement helped drive steep gains for  stocks on Monday and Wednesday; The 10-year is up by more than 6bp, with 50-DMA on cusp of crossing above 100-DMA. Gilts outperformed following weak August U.K. GDP while in Asia session gains for Aussie bonds supported Treasuries. The 10-year German bond yield was unchanged at -0.525%. Other core yields were a touch lower.

“The rise in U.S. yields, particularly at the long end, suggests increased expectations of a blue wave in the election,” said Koichi Fujishiro, economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute.

In commodities, oil prices edged up, propelled by supply outages caused by a storm in the Gulf of Mexico and a strike of offshore workers in Norway. Both benchmark contracts were on course for their biggest weekly gains since early June. Brent was up 16 cents at $43.50 a barrel. WTI crude rose 14 cents to $41.33. A weaker dollar boosted gold which gained 1.1% to $1,914.28 per ounce.

Starting next week, attention turns to corporate America’s third-quarter earnings season, kicked off by JPMorgan Chase & Co, Citigroup Inc and drugmaker Johnson and Johnson. Looking at the day ahead, we get final August reading for wholesale inventories in the US. From central banks, the Reserve Bank of India will be deciding on monetary policy, while the Fed’s Barkin and the BoE’s Haldane will also be speaking.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.4% to 3,450.25
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.2% to 369.09
  • MXAP up 0.05% to 175.13
  • MXAPJ up 0.3% to 579.54
  • Nikkei down 0.1% to 23,619.69
  • Topix down 0.5% to 1,647.38
  • Hang Seng Index down 0.3% to 24,119.13
  • Shanghai Composite up 1.7% to 3,272.08
  • Sensex up 0.5% to 40,387.55
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 unchanged at 6,102.17
  • Kospi up 0.2% to 2,391.96
  • Brent futures down 0.4% to $43.19/bbl
  • Gold spot up 1.1% to $1,915.04
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.2% to 93.38
  • German 10Y yield fell 1.8 bps to -0.541%
  • Euro up 0.3% to $1.1792
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 2.7 bps to 0.555%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 2.7 bps to 0.174%

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • While the lesson of the 2016 campaign was never to count out Donald Trump, his path to re-election is narrowing dramatically as Democrat Joe Biden’s lead continues to grow and voters sour on the president’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic
  • President Trump’s Dr. Sean Conley said in a statement that “since returning home, his physical exam has remained stable and devoid of any indications to suggest progression of illness; said he expects Trump to safely return to public engagements by Saturday, 10 days after his diagnosis
  • Pound traders who have grown used to Brexit brinkmanship between London and Brussels are making two assumptions: there’ll probably be a trade deal, and U.S. elections matter more right now
  • In 2016 investors were buying the Russian ruble and selling the Mexican peso in expectation the Republican candidate would mend relations with Russian President Vladimir Putin and cut trade ties with Mexico after winning the election. This time around, the trade has reversed as Joe Biden gains in the polls
  • Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez has called an extraordinary cabinet meeting on Friday to discuss a possible state of emergency for the region of Madrid, while German Chancellor Angela Merkel will speak with mayors of the country’s biggest cities about efforts to contain a recent surge in Europe’s largest economy

A quick look at global markets courtesy of NewsSquawk

Asian equity markets traded mixed as US equity futures extended on the prior day’s gains amid stimulus hopes after House Speaker Pelosi and US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin continued their relief discussions, while President Trump also suggested optimism that talks are beginning to work and was said to be open to something larger than a skinny bill. Nonetheless, ASX 200 (U/C) was rangebound and took a breather following the outperformance seen for most the week and after the RBA Financial Stability Review noted that domestic banks were well placed to continue lending and supporting the economic recovery, as well as the financial system but added that business failures will increase substantially as loan repayment deferrals and income support end. Nikkei 225 (-0.1%) initially began on the front-foot but then stalled in tandem with a mild pullback in USD/JPY which gave up the 106.00 status and after weaker than expected Household Spending. Hang Seng (-0.3%) and Shanghai Comp. (+1.6%) were varied with outperformance in the mainland as participants returned from the holidays where spending rose by 6.3% Y/Y amid a bout of ‘revenge travel’ which saw Golden Week air passenger numbers recover to 91% of last year’s volume. Participants also welcomed private sector PMI data in which Caixin Services PMI topped estimates at 54.8 vs. Exp. 54.3 and Caixin Composite PMI was lower than previous at 54.5 (Prev. 55.1) but remained at a firm expansion. Finally, 10yr JGBs were steady amid the indecisive risk sentiment seen in Tokyo and as prices continued to eye the psychological 152.00 level, while the BoJ’s presence in the market for nearly JPY 1tln of JGBs has also provided a floor for government bonds.

Top Asian News

  • Hong Kong Small Cap Sinks 90% Amid Margin Call Speculation
  • India’s RBI Uses Unconventional Tools to Check Borrowing Costs
  • China’s Yuan Climbs, Stocks Gain in Upbeat Return for Traders
  • Foreigners Buy Most Turkish Assets Since 2018 After Rate Hike

Mixed trade in Europe as regional bourses diverged after opening with mild broad-based gains (Euro Stoxx 50 +0.2%) following on from a similar lead from the APAC region after Mainland China returned to the market following its Golden Week holiday. Meanwhile, US equity futures eke mild gains as hopes for resolution on some stimulus keeps State-side sentiment supported. Back to Europe, varying performance seen across the indices, with UK’s FTSE (+0.7%) outpacing peers on a favourable Sterling action, whilst the peripheries see underperformance after EU Budget talks between the European Parliament and EU ambassadors have been suspended after just an hour, after a German attempt to get a breakthrough failed, with the issue threatening a delay to the swift implementation of the Recovery Fund. Sectors are mostly firmer with Energy outperforming amid yesterday’s rise in the complex, with no risk profiled to be derived from the broader sectors. The breakdown sees Autos and Construction towards the bottom of the pile, whilst Basic Resources coat-tail on the broader gains across base metal markets. In terms of individual movers, Danish-listed Pandora (+14%) resides near the top of the Stoxx 600 after raising its guidance, with Novo Nordisk (+4.0%) also higher amid a forecast upgrade. British Land (+4.0%) is higher on the back of dividend resumption. LSE (+0.5%) is firmer after it announced the sale of Borsa Italian to Euronext (-3.7%) for EUR 4.325bln vs. Exp. ~EUR 4bln.

Top European News

  • Russian Covid-19 Cases Hit Record as Moscow Resists Lockdown
  • Europe Holds Crisis Talks as Spain Pushes for Emergency Powers
  • Italy’s Unflagging Bond Rally Drives Key Yield to Record Low
  • LSE Agrees $5 Billion Borsa Sale to Euronext, Italian Banks

In FX, no obvious catalyst, but the Kiwi has derived more than fellow G10 currencies from the Greenback’s deeper pull-back from 93.500+ levels in DXY terms to fresh w-t-d lows of 93.309, as Nzd/Usd breaches resistance at the psychological 0.6600 level that has been capping rebounds since the headline pair retreated from early October highs.

  • CHF/EUR/AUD/CAD/JPY – Also taking advantage of their US counterpart’s demise, with the Franc above 0.9150, Euro probing 1.1800 and Aussie eyeing 0.7200 again having cleared the 20 DMA (0.7176) following an encouraging FSR from the RBA. Meanwhile, the Loonie has extended recovery gains from midweek lows around 1.3340 towards 1.3160 ahead of Canadian jobs data and the Yen has rebounded from sub-106.00 levels after mixed Japanese household spending metrics, but may run into option expiry related offers given decent interest at 105.90-80 (1 bn) and then from 105.50 to 105.40 (1.2 bn). On that note, Eur/Usd expiries are well spread either side of 1.1800 and full details are available via the headline feed at 7.08BST.
  • GBP – Sterling was relatively resilient in the face of weaker than forecast UK data, and a particularly big miss in monthly GDP, but unable to weather the latest Brexit headlines suggesting insufficient progress in latest talks on trade before EU chief negotiator Barnier returns to Brussels. Cable has reversed through 1.2950 and Eur/Gbp is back over 0.9100 as the Pound awaits further fiscal support for the labour market from Chancellor Sunak and a speech by BoE’s Haldane.
  • SCANDI/EM – Only a modest loss of momentum for the Nok beyond 10.9000 vs the Eur in wake of softer than expected Norwegian CPI, while the Sek seems content between 10.4500-10.4100 parameters and unusually large option expiries in the Eur cross either side, especially at the 10.3000 strike where 4.1 bn rolls off vs 1.2 bn at 10.7500. Elsewhere, the Yuan has returned from China’s Golden Week break refreshed and raring to go as Usd/Cnh scales 6.7000 with the aid of a strong PBoC Cny midpoint fix (at 6.7796 vs 6.7905 projected and 6.8101 pre-market closure). Conversely, Lira losses accelerated to 7.9550+ before the CBRT stepped in with another aggressive move to arrest the slide via a 150 bp hike in Try swap rates, but 7.9000 as contained comeback efforts thus far. Ahead, Brazil’s Real in focus given inflation updates and services sector growth.
  • RBA Financial Stability Review stated that Australian banks are well placed to continue lending and supporting the economic recovery, as well as the financial system but added that although the financial system is in a strong position, risks are elevated. Furthermore, it stated that overall household income has increased during H1 2020 but the number of households experiencing financial stress has increased and will increase further, while it noted that business failures will increase substantially as loan repayment deferrals and income support end. (Newswires)

In commodities, WTI and Brent front-month futures ebb lower after the holding pattern seen overnight following yesterday’s gains which were fueled by some supply side developments. 1) Hurricane Delta is poised to make landfall along the Gulf Coast later today as a major hurricane, with BSEE’s latest estimate showing 91.5% of oil production and 61.8% of natgas production shuttered ahead of the hurricane. 2) Reports yesterday, citing a senior Saudi oil adviser, noted that the Kingdom is mulling cancelling an output hike next year amidst the rising cases coupled by Libyan oil output slowly coming back online. JP Morgan analysts see potential for Saudi to drive incremental oil cuts at the upcoming November 30th meeting, with the upside scenario a deeper cut whereby the Kingdom reduces output below quota against the backdrop of weakening demand. Meanwhile more recently on the geopolitical front, Armenia and Azerbaijan are in Moscow in a bid to ease tensions  – the French Presidency expects a truce to be declared in the Nagorno-Karabakh region by this evening or tomorrow, according to Sky News Arabia. WTI Nov and Brent Dec reside around session lows within a tight range after declining from USD 41.47/bbl and ~43.50/bbl respectively. Elsewhere, spot gold continues to grind higher above USD 1900/oz (vs. low USD 1893/oz) on Dollar-dynamics, with similar action seen in spot silver which remains north of USD 24/oz. In terms of base metals, Shanghai Copper futures ended the day with gains of some 1% with LME copper also trading with gains amid expected strikes at Chile’s mines. Meanwhile, Chinese steel and raw material prices rose after the Golden Week holiday amid touted supply woes alongside forecasts for higher demand in Q4.

US Event Calendar

  • 9am: Bloomberg Oct. United States Economic Survey
  • 10am: Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 0.5%, prior 0.5%
  • 10am: Wholesale Trade Sales MoM, prior 4.6%

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Back to the secondary poll going on at the moment and markets had another strong performance yesterday as optimism remained that a stimulus deal might still be achieved pre-election and also as investors increasingly bet on the likelihood of a Biden presidency (and hence further stimulus) from January. After President Trump’s Tuesday tweet that he was pulling out of the talks, he continued to soften his stance in a Fox Business interview yesterday, and said “I think we have a really good chance of doing something”, as a Politico reporter also tweeted that Secretary Mnuchin had floated restarting talks with Speaker Pelosi. Pelosi noted that any passage of a skinny deal would require an agreement on a larger follow-on bill. One voice that has remained constant throughout the recent talks has been Senate Majority Leader McConnell, who again said Pelosi was insisting on “an outrageous” sum of money and acknowledged that the election timing makes agreeing on a deal “challenging.”

Whether or not we’re actually likely to see further stimulus by Election Day (and it still looks less likely than not), risk assets climbed higher in response to this news flow, and by the end of the session the S&P 500 had risen a further +0.80% to its highest level in over a month, and the VIX index of volatility fell back -1.7pts to a one-week low. It was another broad-based rally as 23 of 24 industries in the S&P 500 rose on the day. Cyclicals outperformed large-cap tech yesterday with the NASDAQ ‘only’ rising +0.50%. Energy stocks led the way on both sides of the Atlantic (+3.73% in the US and +1.63% in Europe) as Brent crude oil prices closed above $43/bbl for the first time in nearly 3 weeks. European equities overall saw similar gains to those in the US, with the STOXX 600 (+0.78%) and the DAX (+0.88%) powering forward.

Updating our screens overnight, US equity futures have continued to be supported by the positive stimulus news, with S&P 500 futures up +0.57%. Meanwhile in Asia, there’s been a more mixed performance, with the Nikkei (-0.20%) losing ground and the Hang Seng (+0.10%) seeing a modest gain. Chinese markets have seen a stronger performance, however, as they reopened after a week-long holiday, and the Shanghai Comp is up +1.89%. Furthermore, the September Caixin PMI from China showed the composite reading at 54.5 (vs. 55.1 last month) and the services reading increase to 54.8 (vs. 54.3 expected).

Back to the election, and the main political news from yesterday was President Trump’s announcement that he wouldn’t take part in the second debate next week following the decision that it would be held virtually, as well as the news overnight from his doctor that the President would be able to safely return to public engagements by Saturday. On the debate, Trump campaign manager Bill Stepien said that “We’ll pass on this sad excuse to bail out Joe Biden and do a rally instead.” Meanwhile, the Biden campaign said that he would take voters’ questions instead. With President Trump trailing by nearly 10pts now in both FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics’ polling averages, skipping on the debate means that the president is missing out on any late attempt to reset the trajectory of the race. But in terms of markets, what was noticeable was the increasing focus on a potential Biden presidency and a possible blue wave. His chances on FiveThirtyEight’s model ticked up further to 84%, and the Democratic Party’s chances of winning the Senate are up to 68%, raising the prospect of significant further stimulus in Q1. Along with the House of Representatives, which is heavily expected to remain with the Democrats, this would bring an end to the divided government that we’ve seen these last two years.

On the coronavirus, Europe saw some further troubling news yesterday, which came as the executive director of the European medicines Agency, Guido Rasi, said that a vaccine was “unlikely” to be ready by the end of the year. In terms of the numbers, the UK saw another 17,550 cases reported, while the number of patients in hospital in England rose above the 3,000 mark for the first time since June. Over in France, another 18,129 were reported, and the number of Covid-19 patients in intensive care rose to its highest since May, at 1,427. In response, the government has placed Lyon, Lille and Grenoble on maximum alert, with restrictions similar to those in Paris and Marseille. In Poland, it will be compulsory to wear masks in public from Saturday, while further restrictions were imposed in the Czech Republic, where all cultural events and indoor sporting activities have been banned. There has been some pushback amid the rise in restrictions across the continent with the most recent from a court in Madrid blocking the regional government’s new measures to reduce mobility. This comes as Spain has continued to register nearly 70,000 new infections per week over the last month.

Over in the US, New York Mayor de Blasio announced the closure of a further 61 schools, bringing the total to 169. There were further concerning signs from some first wave northeastern hotspots, as Massachusetts, New York and New Jersey all saw the highest number of new cases since May. Overall, the 7-day rolling sum of cases in the US rose over 316,000 for the first time since mid-August.

In other news, we got the ECB’s account of its September monetary policy meeting, where there were a number of mentions on the exchange rate. Furthermore, it noted that “the recent appreciation of the euro exchange rate had had a material impact on the inflation outlook in the September ECB staff projections.” The euro saw a modest weakening against the US dollar yesterday, and was down -0.03% by the close.

Over in the fixed income sphere, sovereign bonds rose yesterday, with yields on 10yr Treasuries (-0.2bps) and bunds (-3.0bps) both falling. There were also a number of records set in southern Europe, as yields on 10yr Greek debt fell -4.5bps to an all-time low of 0.89%, and yields on 10yr Italian debt fell -2.6bps to an all-time closing low, though they had been lower on an intraday basis back in September 2019.

In terms of yesterday’s data, the initial jobless claims in the US for the week through October 3 fell to 840k (vs. 820k expected though), down from an upwardly revised 849k in the week prior. That said the continuing claims reading for the week through September 26 fell to a post-pandemic low of 10.976m (vs. 11.4m expected), with the insured unemployment rate falling to 7.5%.

To the day ahead now, and the data highlights include UK GDP for August, along with French and Italian industrial production for that month. We’ll also get the Canadian employment report for September, and the final August reading for wholesale inventories in the US. From central banks, the Reserve Bank of India will be deciding on monetary policy, while the Fed’s Barkin and the BoE’s Haldane will also be speaking.

 

 

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)FRIDAY MORNING/ THURSDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 54.02 PTS OR 1.68%   //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 74.22 OR .31%    /The Nikkei closed DOWN 155.22 POINTS OR 0.61%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.11%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed /Oil UP TO 40.78 dollars per barrel for WTI and 43.01 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MIXED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP  AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.7018. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.6906 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS //TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED//CORONAVIRUS/PANDEMIC/TRUMP TESTS POSITIVE FOR COVID 19  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3 C CHINA

CHINA/USA//TAIWAN

Not good: USA security adviser O”Brien warns that China will attack Taiwan and the uSA will not intercede

(zerohedge)

US Security Adviser O’Brien Warns China Against Attack On Taiwan

 

We detailed Wednesday that China’s state-run Global Times issued a major threat, saying China should “fully prepare itself for war” with Taiwan in the event it restores diplomatic relations with the United States. The tabloid’s chief editor Hu Xijin wrote in his latest English language op-ed that “We must no longer hold any more illusions. The only way forward is for the mainland to fully prepare itself for war and to give Taiwan secessionist forces a decisive punishment at any time.”

On the same day National Security Advisor Robert O’Brien addressed just such a scenario at an event hosted at the University of Nevada in Las Vegas, describing as summarized by Al Jazeera that China is “engaged in a significant naval build-up probably not seen since Germany’s attempt to compete with Britain’s Royal Navy prior to WWI.”

“Part of that is to give them the ability to push us back out of the Western Pacific, and allow them to engage in an amphibious landing in Taiwan,” O’Brien said. “The problem with that is that amphibious landings are notoriously difficult.”

Taiwanese Army exercise, via US Naval Institute

As he specified this includes the fact of about a 100-mile distance between the mainland and Taiwan, adding to difficulties of a well-organized amphibious landing.

“It’s not an easy task, and there’s also a lot of ambiguity about what the United States would do in response to an attack by China on Taiwan,” he said, referencing also that China hawks in Congressed have introduced the Taiwan Invasion Prevention Act bill. More directly he was referencing the US longtime posture of ‘strategic ambiguity’ regards defending Taiwan.

“You can’t just spend 1 percent of your GDP [gross domestic product], which the Taiwanese have been doing – 1.2 percent – on defense, and hope to deter a China that’s been engaged in the most massive military build up in 70 years,” he said, during a week where Taiwan’s defense spending was up for question at the US-Taiwan Defense Industry Conference.

O’Brien proffered a strategy that militarily Taiwan needs to “turn themselves into a porcupine” because ultimately “Lions generally don’t like to eat porcupines.”

It didn’t take long for Chinese state media to respond in what it called out as Taiwan’s “weakness”:

Meanwhile, after much of a year which has witnessed Taiwan’s Air Force scramble its jets dozens of times, and conduct deterrence exercises and aerial patrol missions, Taiwan’s Minister of National Defense Yen Teh-fa on Wednesday announced the island has spent nearly $900 million scrambling its jets in response to PLA warplane incursions and provocations

In the end it appears that the message from Washington continues to be that Taiwan should dramatically boost defense spending, because it’s anything but clear that the Pentagon will be there when the Chinese military machine comes calling.

end
 
China/USA
Interesting, the entire world is anti China due to the COVID 19 and our illustrious friend Biden loves China. I guess the billions given to son Hunter helped
(zerohedge)

Yuan Surges Most In 15 Years On Expectations Of Pro-China Pivot By “President Biden”

 

China’s onshore yuan, which was closed for trading during China’s week-long Golden Week holiday, soared 1.4% today as China returned to work and as the onshore yuan (CNY) caught up to the recent surge in the offshore yuan (CNH), driven by the recent plunge in the dollar and the rising expectations that Joe Biden will win the presidency and renormalize US-China relations by pivoting to a pro-China stance.

The onshore rate for the yuan, which had not traded since September 30 due to holiday, soared as much as 1.41% on Friday to 6.6950, the strongest since April 2019.

That was the biggest one-day change in the CNY since July 2005, when China broke the yuan-peg to the dollar and revalued its currency.

 

The more-loosely regulated offshore renminbi, which traded throughout the holiday, climbed 0.8% to 6.6818 against the dollar.

What prompted the surge? According to strategist cited by the FT, traders in China on Friday were emboldened by the imminent possibility of a US administration that was more friendly towards Beijing.

According to Daniel Been, head of FX strategy at ANZ, the increasing probability of a win for Democratic candidate Joe Biden in next month’s US presidential election had helped to lift the Chinese currency: “The view in the market is that the way a Biden administration approaches [US-China relations] is probably going to be less confrontational and certainly using trade less as a tool or weapon against China.”

In short, China views Biden a distinctly pro-China president, which is concerning at a time when anti-China sentiment across virtually the entire world has reached record levels, as Pew found this week.

 

In addition to sentiment about Biden’s pro-China agenda, the Chinese currency was also boosted by fresh signs the economy is improving after authorities controlled Covid-19 in the country. Overnight, the Caixin China Service PMI showed activity climbed to its highest level in three months in September.

At the same time, Macquarie China economist Larry Hu, pointed to rising retail sales and a “significant” 17% year-on-year jump in domestic passenger traffic at Shanghai’s airport during the long holiday. “It’s clear that consumption, especially service consumption, is on the mend.”

Nomura analyst said that while overall passenger trips on public transportation were down about 30% y/y in the first few days of the holiday, transport ministry data showed that average highway traffic volume fell only 5.5%. A snapshot of China’s high frequency economic indicators from Goldman showed continued economic mending.

China’s improving economy stands in contrast to the US, where activity appears to be slowing, and is set to slow further amid continued Congressional gridlock over a new fiscal stimulus package.

Quoted by the FT, Christy Tan, head of Asia markets strategy and research at National Australia Bank, said there was also growing confidence that Chinese authorities would not intervene to stymie the renminbi’s rally.

“The prospect of renminbi appreciation is getting more structural — it’s no longer just cyclical,” Ms Tan said, pointing to greater trading offshore and inflows from global investors into China’s markets. “There’s a sense of confidence that the renminbi is getting more internationalised.” To be sure, the latest IMF data confirmed a record allocation toward CNY by reserve managers.The surge in the yuan was reflected in broad asset optimism, with China’s benchmark CSI 300 index closing 2% higher after onshore markets opened for the first time in six trading days. The tech-focused ChiNext index rose 3.8%.

As the FT notes, flows into China’s onshore equities market have topped Rmb90bn ($13.4bn) this year, taking foreign holdings to more than Rmb1tn on the back of the country’s relatively strong economic recovery. “We expect foreign capital inflows and foreign holdings in the A-share market to continue to rise,” said Bruce Pang, head of macro and strategy research at investment bank China Renaissance, referring to the country’s onshore stock market.

end

 

 

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

CORONAVIRUS//UPDATE/THE GLOBE/LONDON

London Mayor Says Another Lockdown “Inevitable” As Global COVID-19 Cases Near Record Daily Highs: Live Updates

 

Summary:

  • London mayor says lockdown “inevitable”
  • Netherland reports latest record jump
  • Spain declares “public health emergency” in Madrid
  • France places more cities on lockdown
  • Confirmed COVID-19 cases neared daily record yesterday
  • Russia reports new record
  • Takeda enrolls first patients for new drug trial
  • China joins WHO vaccine initiative
  • Iran bars hospitals from taking non-urgent cases as COVID hammers country

* * *

France reported more than 18,000 new cases yesterday, and now its third-largest city, Lyon, is joining Paris and Marseille in closing bars and other non-essential businesses in the coming days as COVID-19 infection rates surge in the countries hot spots. As the French government continues to insist that national lockdowns will only be a measure of last resort, public health officials are doubling down on the targeted approach as COVID-19 patients fill the country’s hospital beds.

 

Yesterday, French Health Minister Olivier Veran said Lyon, Lille, Grenoble and Saint-Etienne would go on maximum coronavirus alert level from Saturday. This means they will have to close their bars for two weeks in coming days, as Paris did on Tuesday and Marseille, France’s second-biggest city, did earlier this month.

And more localized measures could be implemented in Toulouse and Montpellier; those cities could see their alert level raised to the maximum s of Monday. Dijon and Clermont-Ferrand would also see their alert levels rise on Saturday. “Unfortunately, the health situation in France continues to deteriorate,” Veran said at his weekly COVID-19 briefing, per Reuters.

Minutes ago, London Mayor Sadiq Kahn told the LBC that new London lockdown restrictions are “inevitable” as officials have tightened restrictions in and around Manchester in the north of England. Meanwhile, Spain declared a public health emergency in Madrid, as expected.

Additionally, the Netherlands just reported another 5,983 new cases, a new daily record, while 69 new patients were reported in the country’s hospitals, bringing that total to 1,139, while deaths climbed by 14 and ICU cases climbed by 11 to 239.

As of earlier this morning, global cases had reached 36,435,290, according to Johns Hopkins data, while the global death toll had climbed to 1,060,869. New cases were just shy of the record set on Sept. 24, with 359,337 new cases confirmed yesterday, along with 6,234 deaths. The surge in new cases is being driven by Europe, Russia, the US, India, Brazil and Southeast Asia. The Czech Republic, which, along with Poland, yesterday announced new restrictions to try and slow the raging outbreak. The Czech Republic reported 5,394 new infections on Friday, its highest daily total yet. The country has now recorded 15% of its entire COVID-19 outbreak tally in the past 3 days. Poland, meanwhile, just reported 4,739 new cases Friday, the third-straight record day.

 

Russia shot passed its peak from May on Friday as it recorded another 12,126 new infections and 201 virus-linked deaths in the 24-hour period leading up to Friday.

In a lengthy report published in Friday’s FT, the paper examines how a resurgence in the Brazilian city of Manaus, which was hit hard in the spring, only for the virus to slink away over the summer, is raising serious questions about the prospects for herd immunity. The trend “poses fresh challenges…and difficult questions for the scientists and policymakers worldwide who have been edging towards herd immunity policies as an alternative to economy-crushing lockdowns.

This comes after a group of scientists in the US and UK published the Great Barrington Declaration earlier this week. The document calls for public policymakers to examine a strategy of “focused protection” to try and build up herd immunity as safely as possible. The virus, they argued, should be allowed to circulate among the young and healthy, while the elderly and the sick should be shielded. In Western Europe, antibody surveys have determined that roughly 8% of the population has already been infected, and the WHO recently declared that it believes 11% of the global population has already had the virus.

However, it seems, many of the same ‘hot spots’ from the spring are suffering again in the fall. This could also be a factor of population density, however.

As Eli Lilly and Regeneron apply for EUAs from the FDA for their antibody therapeutics, CNBC had Gilead CEO Dan O’Day on Friday morning to talk about the latest remdesivir trial results.

At any rate, here’s some more COVID-19 news from Friday morning, as well as overnight.

Japan’s Takeda Pharmaceutical says an alliance of drugmakers it spearheads has enrolled its first patient in a global clinical trial of a blood plasma treatment for COVID-19 after months of regulatory delays. The Phase 3 trial by the group, known as the CoVIg Plasma Alliance, aims to enroll 500 adult patients from the United States, Mexico and 16 other countries. Patients will be treated with Gilead Sciences’ remdesivir alongside the plasma treatment, which will be provided by CSL Behring, Takeda and two other companies (Source: Nikkei).

China will join a World Health Organization initiative aimed at ensuring fair distribution of Covid-19 vaccines when they become available, the country’s foreign ministry announced on Friday (Source: FT).

India reports 70,496 cases of COVID-19 in the last 24 hours, down from 78,524 the previous day, bringing the country’s total to over 6.9 million. The death toll jumped by 964 to 106,490 (Source: Nikkei).

Australian states and territories report 16 cases in the past 24 hours, down from 28 a day earlier. They also report no deaths for two days — the first time Australia has gone 48 hours without a COVID-19 death since July 11 (Source: Nikkei)

END

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

ARMENIA,AZERBAIJAN/TURKEY/USA

Erdogan who has ambitions of creating another Ottoman empire is creating another Syria in the Caucuses according to Armenian President

(zerohedge)

Armenian President Says Turkey’s Erdogan Creating “Another Syria In The Caucuses”

 
 

President Armen Sarkissian has charged that Turkey is creating “another Syria in the Caucasus” through its military and diplomatic support for Azerbaijan in the war for the autonomous ethnic Armenian breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh.

“If we don’t act now internationally, stopping Turkey . . . with the perspective of making this region a new Syria . . . then everyone will be hit,” he said to the Financial Times in a new interview.

He further urged an international effort to stop the aggression which he said was fueled by Turkey, which he called “the bully of the region”.

 

Armenian President Armen Sarkissian with US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, file image: Wiki Commons.
 

“We need more effort to stop this,” Presdient Sarkissian said. “And the focus of the efforts should be Turkey. The moment Turkey is taken out of the equation, we will be closer to a ceasefire and returning to the negotiation table.”

“What is a Nato member state doing in Azerbaijan helping to fight Nagorno-Karabakh? Explain to me,” he questioned. “That completely redefines the role of Nato.”

Turkish President Erodgan has been vocal in supporting Azerbaijan as Turkey’s “brother country” since hostilities started late last month, and which has since taken hundreds of lives on both sides, military and civilian. But it’s also widely believed Turkey is sending limited airpower in the form of F-16 jets and drones, for use against the Armenian military.

There’s also the issue of Turkey transferring hundreds of Syrian militants from Islamist factions who had previously been warring against Assad, which has been covered widely in Western press, such as in The Guardian, since the start of the latest fighting.

 

Sarkissian addressed this hugely controversial issue in the interview with FT:

“When the fighting stops, will the [militants] stay,” asked Mr Sarkissian. “It is a threat not only to Armenia but the whole Caucasus, and it is a threat to Russia . . . they can have a dramatic impact on the countries of Central Asia and dramatic impact on the north of Iran.”

As for the still disputed Turkish F-16 question, Armenia last week accused Turkey of shooting down an Armenian jet over its airspace, something both Ankara and Azerbaijan vehemently denied.

However, satellite imagery showed a par of Turkish F-16 jets parked at an airbase in Baku, after which Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev was forced to admit the presence. He merely claimed they were there for routine “training” exercises and not to engage in any hostilities.

Interestingly, Syria’s President Bashar Assad weighed in on the issue of Turkish intervention in Nagorno-Karabakh, saying Erdogan was supporting terrorists from Libya to Syria to the Caucuses.

Assad blamed Turkish intervention for heightening the conflict in a series of statements this week, some of which were featured in televised interviews:

Given that Russia and Turkey find themselves on opposite sides of the Caucuses conflict, paralleling the wars in Syria and Libya, the potential for this to explode into a broader regional war remains significant. 

end

6.Global Issues

Michael Every ..

on the major stories of the day..

(Michael Every)

“Confusion Reigns”

 
 

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Earlier in the week I warned of a lot more US election wackiness to come.

Well, Exhibit A: The debate commission decided the upcoming presidential debate on 15 October will be virtual rather than in person, logical given President Trump has Covid-19; and Trump refused to attend a virtual debate….perhaps understandable given the experiences many of us have had recently: “I can’t use Teams, do you have Skype? No? Can I use Zoom? It’s banned? Oh.” And can you imagine a debate which was all “Hello? Hello? Can you hear me?“ Not that live debates are seeing any answers to the key questions though. Even the Vice Presidential debate was actually akin to the 1970’s Two Ronnies’ Mastermind sketch:

Q: Your chosen subject last time was answering questions before you are asked. This time, you`ve chosen to answer the question before last, each time, is that correct?

A: Charlie Smithers.

Q: And your time starts now. What is palaeontology?

A: Yes, absolutely correct.

Q: What is the name of the directory that lists members of the British peerage?

A: A study of old fossils.

Q: Correct. Who are Len Murray and Sir Geoffrey Howe?

A: Burkes.

Q: Correct. What is the difference between a donkey and an ass?

A: One is a Trade Union leader, the other one is a member of the cabinet.

Q: Correct. Complete the quotation “To be or not to be…”

A: They are both the same.

Q: Correct. What is Bernard Manning famous for?

A: That is the question.

Q: Correct. Who is the current Archbishop of Canterbury?

A: He is a fat man who tells blue jokes.

 

Trump has now been given a clean medical bill of health to start public events again from Saturday, and is holding a rally…so is the rescheduled debate date of 22 October still virtual? Joe Biden is doing an ABC Town Hall on 15 October now; will Trump do one too? Might it be with Joe Rogan, as Twitter is urging? Confusion reigns. Clear and substantive debate does not.

Exhibit BNancy Pelosi will today push a bill to give the House, not the Cabinet, power to remove a president from office for medical reasons under the 25th amendment. A few quick comments:

1) Is this needed by a party up 14-16 points in the polls and three weeks away from a sweep of the White House, House, and Senate?;

2) It will not remove Trump from office. Even if passed in the Democrat-majority House, the bill requires passage in the Republican-majority Senate and a presidential signature – which won’t happen;

3) If it did, it would just put Mike Pence into office for a few days, after which Trump could self-certify himself fit to take over again, and over-ruling that would require a two thirds majority in both the House and the Senate;

4) The move is likely to fire up the base – but possibly the Republicans more as Trump is selling it as an “attempted coup”; and

5) That should be relative risk off for markets, if they can read the political tea leaves – but I am not sure they cocoa, as said in the UK in the era of the Two Ronnies.

Exhibit C: The shocking news of the arrest of anarchist/”extremist libertarians” who had planned to kidnap Michigan governor Whitmer and hold a “treason trial” over her virus-related restrictions. This should underline just how worrying downside scenarios are in this present crisis.

Exhibit DWe are apparently closer to a comprehensive fiscal stimulus after all(?), after the Democrats had rejected offers for a series of clean bills for airlines and households. Perhaps Mnuchin and Pelosi can find a window today to continue their push-me-pull-you as the Fed sits in the background with its head in its hands. Rosengren yesterday called this all “tragic”, and for once it’s hard to disagree with the Fed. “The Fed can ease financial conditions. We can’t replace lose income, though. That’s uniquely suited to fiscal policy.”

On which (lost income), more pubs are closing in the UK, as people old enough to remember the Two Ronnies sadly start to fill the hospitals again. The UK looks set to go back to shielding the vulnerable indoors again for months. Spain is also following suite with a 15-day emergency lockdown in Madrid, while a Spanish virologist warns of up to two years of mask-wearing ahead.

 

Meanwhile, also very important at the margin is that last night the US imposed sweeping sanctions on another 18 Iranian banks, which now effectively cuts Iran off from the global financial system completely. The US may be a house divided at home, but abroad it is still capable of major action: critics say this US masterplan will backfire, but the campaign of maximum pressure continues. Markets must not forget that there are other countries potentially heading for similar treatment for a variety of different reasons – some of their currencies are recognising it, while one is merrily going on its way as if that kind of thing can’t happen to it. Quite the Masterminds at work there answering the previous question of financial inflows rather than the current one of (more) potential sanctions.

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings FRIDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1801 UP .0034 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS//CORONAVIRUS/PANDEMIC/TRUMP POSITIVE WITH VIRUS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /MIXED

USA/JAPAN YEN 105.87 DOWN 0.150 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2946   UP   0.006  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/

USA/CAN 1.317610 DOWN .0018 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  FRIDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE BY 34 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.1801 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE  CLOSED UP 54.02 POINTS OR 1.08%

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 27.38 POINTS OR .12% 

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0,11%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL MIXED

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL MIXED

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN  27.38 POINTS OR .12%

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 54.02 POINTS OR 1.68% 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.11% 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 27,38  POINTS OR 0.12%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1913.80

silver:$24.36-

Early FRIDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 0.770% !!! DOWN 1 IN POINTS from THURSDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

The 30 yr bond yield 1.578 DOWN 1  IN BASIS POINTS from THURSDAY night.

USA dollar index early FRIDAY morning: 93.33 DOWN 28 CENT(S) from  THURSDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers FRIDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing  FRIDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.18% DOWN 5 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.04.%  UP 0   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.17%//DOWN 2 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:0.72 DOWN 3 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 55 points higher than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.53% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.25% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR FRIDAY

Closing currency crosses for FRIDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1819  UP     .0051 or 51 basis points

USA/Japan: 105.62 DOWN .385 OR YEN UP 39  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3005 UP .0065 POUND UP 65  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar UP 69 basis points to 1.3005

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The USA/Yuan,CNY: closed UP 6.6947    ON SHORE  (UP)..

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.6846  (YUAN up)..

TURKISH LIRA:  7.848  EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.04%

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 1 IN basis points from THURSDAY at 0.773 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 1.585 DOWN 1 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 93.09 down 52  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for FRIDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 39.53  0.66%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 43.58 POINTS OR .03%

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 30.82 POINTS 0.63%

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 40.80 POINTS or 0.58%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 5.58 POINTS OR 0.03%

WTI Oil price; 41.08 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 43.23 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE RISES:    76.77  THE CROSS LOWER BY 0.58 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE HIGHER BY 58 BASIS PTS)

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.53 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price f0r Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OILPRICE 4:30 PM : 40.53//

BRENT :  42.78

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 0.771..down 1 basis points…

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 1.569 down 2 basis points..

EURO/USA 1.1823 ( UP 57   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:105.62 DOWN .408 (YEN UP 41 BASIS POINTS/..

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 93.06 UP 54 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.3041 UP 102  POINTS

the Turkish lira close: 7.86

the Russian rouble 76.79   UP 0.56 Roubles against the uSA dollar. (UP 56 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3121 UP 71 BASIS pts

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.54%

The Dow closed UP 161.39 POINTS OR 0.57%

NASDAQ closed UP 158.97 POINTS OR 1.56%


VOLATILITY INDEX:  24.80 CLOSED DOWN 1.56

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 0.220%//libor dropping like a stone

USA trading today in Graph Form

Stimulus-Hyped Short-Squeeze Sparks Best Week For Stocks In 4 Months, USD Dumps

 

Between Fed promises and stimulus hype, the market keeps powering higher…

Since Trump’s flip-flop on negotiating a COVID relief deal, stocks and gold have surged back and the dollar has weakened…

Dow rallied back into the green for 2020 (but despite its gains, the Russell 2000 remains red for the year)…

Source: Bloomberg

Dow 28,538 was the 2019 close…

On the week – the best for Small Caps since June – the Trump tweet dip is along-lost memory now…

All thanks to the biggest weekly short-squeeze in 2 months (and ‘most shorted’ stocks have squeezed higher for 10 of the last 11 days)…

Source: Bloomberg

Banks soared in their best week since June…

Source: Bloomberg

Airlines flip-flopped more than Kamala Harris, but ended the week notably higher…

Source: Bloomberg

Biggest 2-week drop in the USD in 4 months…

Source: Bloomberg

The Chinese yuan soared today as they came back from Golden Week…

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos chopped around this week, but ended higher…

Source: Bloomberg

With Bitcoin back above $11,000…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields were higher on the week, with the curve steepening (30Y +9bps, 2Y +2bps)…

Source: Bloomberg

But notably, the big move was Monday and since then 10Y Yields have largely traded in a tight range…

Source: Bloomberg

Best week for WTI since June, eased off a little late on after Norway oil sector strike was called off…

Gold, meanwhile, has concluded that the now-imminent debt binge will indeed crush the dollar, sending capital pouring into safe havens. This sent gold to its best day since Aug 17th…

Copper also had a big rebound this week…

Finally, don’t worry about this…

Source: Bloomberg

Or this…

Source: Bloomberg

And before everyone writes off President Trump’s chances, he is positioned considerably better against Biden than he was against Hillary at the same point…

So what happens next?

Source: Bloomberg

 
 

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 
end

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA//Non farm payrolls

 
 

ii)Market data/USA

US economic news:

Federal budget deficit hit record $3.1 trillion in just-ended fiscal 2020, CBO says

Oct. 8, 2020 at 3:14 p.m. ET

MarketWatch

 
 

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

McConnell Says “We Do Need” Another Covid Aid Package, But “Unlikely In Next Three Weeks”

 

With headline-scanning algos focused only on soundbites related any new stimulus deal and changes in the probability of a fiscal stimulus getting done soon, moments ago stocks were whiplashed when moments ago Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell said during an event in Kentucky that “we do need another Covid-19 aid package”, but then immediately poured cold water on “optimism” when he warned that a new stimulus deal is “unlikely in the next three weeks.”

McConnell also said that there’s “widespread agreement airlines need aid” and added that the economy is struggling to get back to normal.

 

The KY Senator then reiterated that he hasn’t seen Trump in person since August but they speak almost every day. “The telephone was invented in the late part of the 19th century and it works quite well.”

McConnell also refused to say when he was last tested for covid. “Have I ever been tested? Yeah. But am I going to make a daily report? No. It’s not necessary.”

Of all those, algos only cared about the first, and amid some initial confusion…

 

… sent the Russell 2000 – which had benefited in recent days amid surging “stimulus optimism” -lower…

 

 

… while the dollar posted a modest bounce.

END
 Doctors say Trump will return to public engagements on Saturday
(zerohedge)

Doctors Say Trump Will Return To “Public Engagements” Saturday; 4th White House Reporter Sickened

 

Update (1900ET): As Nancy Pelosi rallies Democrats to try and push for a 25th amendment removal of power from President Trump’s hands, his medical team has just announced in their latest update that Trump plans to return to “public engagements” on Saturday, the 10th day since his symptoms began, at which point they say he will not be infectious.

We can’t help but wonder if Trump’s press team will later issue a “clarification” about Saturday being “day 10” since it’s actually 9 days.

Could this have something to do with why Nancy Pelosi wants to know exactly when Trump last tested negative?

Trump released a video message a few hours ago in front of a green screen, though he definitely sounded healthier, and appeared less pale.

* * *

The White House Press Corps has just been informed that a 4th member of the White House press pool has tested positive for COVID-19. The reporter was last at the White House on Oct. 3, 6 days after the Amy Coney Barrett press announcement, which some have speculated might have been a super-spreader event.

We counted Stephen Miller, who tested positive last night, as the 33rd case from the White House outbreak. Earlier, a Marine Corp Assistant Commandant also tested positive after interacting with the Coast Guard Admiral Charles Ray who tested positive earlier this week.

That would make the 4th reporter sickened No. 34 on our list overall (we’re also counting 11 campaign aides who were sickened after the Cleveland debate).

Bloomberg has its own list here.

President Trump tweeted another video message from what appeared to be a green screen backdrop of the White House lawn promising that the antibody therapeutics he was treated with (among other things) would soon be available to “all”.

In response to the news, one twitter user asked about VP Mike Pence cancelling a trip to his home state, Indiana.

The other night, the NYT reported that another White House official apparently tested positive back in September, and had apparently fallen “gravely ill”.

White House reporters have slammed the WH press shop for wantonly putting their health at risk, as Press Secretary Kayleigh McEnany and at least 4 aides have tested positive (including one of her husband’s cousins). Though the only people who have been seriously sickened so far appear to be the White House security official reported last night, and NJ Gov Chris Christie, who remains in the hospital.

As far as President Trump is concerned, the White House told reporters a few minutes ago that they should be releasing another update on Trump’s health today.

end
 
David Stockman blasts the Airlines that do not deserve bailouts
a must read..
 
(David Stockman)
 
 

‘Addictus Stimulitis’ – David Stockman Blasts “Airlines Neither Deserve, Nor Need, A Bailout”

Authored by David Stockman via Contra Corner blog,

It’s hard to say who is loonier – the guy in the White House East Wing hopped up on steroids or the Wall Street robo-machines and Robin Hooders who slobber incontinently upon the slightest hint of another “stimulus” injection.

Either way, exactly seven hours after he implanted a tiny quotient of sanity into Washington’s fiscal madhouse yesterday afternoon by terminating talks on Everything Bailout 5.0, the Donald proved once again that he is a clear and present danger to the nation’s solvency and that Wall Street is flat-out disease-ridden with addictus stimulitis.

 

The fact is, the airlines don’t deserve nor need a bailout, while the idea of handing out another $135 billion of walking around money to small businesses who might otherwise lay-off redundant employees is just plain ludicrous.

Of course, the Donald doesn’t have a clue about the fact that the future taxpayers, who would bear the burden of servicing another $160 billion of public debt incurred for these two illicit purposes, are not mules to be drafted in behalf of his re-election campaign. That’s perhaps why 30 minutes latter he upped the ante by another $300 billion, promising to instantly mail a check for $1,200 (adorned by his signature) from Uncle Sam’s depleted treasury to 160 million Americans (plus a $500 tip for their kids), the overwhelming share of whom didn’t lose their jobs and don’t need the money.

Alas, this is the fiscal madness which today passes for conservative Republican government. So it literally scrambles one’s brain to contemplate what depredations the Kamala Harris/Left Progressive Regency might unleash if, as and when it landslides into office.

The House & Senate should IMMEDIATELY Approve 25 Billion Dollars for Airline Payroll Support, & 135 Billion Dollars for Paycheck Protection Program for Small Business. Both of these will be fully paid for with unused funds from the Cares Act. Have this money. I will sign now!

9:54 PM · Oct 6, 2020·Twitter for iPhone

If I am sent a Stand Alone Bill for Stimulus Checks ($1,200), they will go out to our great people IMMEDIATELY. I am ready to sign right now. Are you listening Nancy?

10:18 PM · Oct 6, 2020·Twitter for iPhone

Needless to say, the above nonsense from the Donald’s twitter feed is all it took. In a flash, the pajama traders’ brigade was sprinting toward recovery of all the ground lost in the last hour of cash trading on Tuesday.

So doing, they reminded one and all that we truly are enmeshed in a doom loop in which the politicians spend and borrow at will; the Fed monetizes the resulting tsunami of debt paper with alacrity; and the swells on Wall Street reward both sets of economic fools with paroxysms of mindless dip buying.

 

At this point we would ordinarily mention this won’t end well. But by now that surely goes without saying.

Still, it is worth amplifying the nature of addictus stimulitis because it is so deeply and stubbornly embedded in the mind-set at both ends of the Acela Corridor that it is well nigh impossible to imagine a cure that leaves the patient in tact. For want of doubt, just consider the recent proclamation of one Andrew Sheets, Morgan Stanley’s chief of cross-asset gambling strategy:

“The glass half-full view of stimulus talks is if you don’t get it today you’ll get it tomorrow from whomever wins the election,” Sheets said in an interview.

“This V-shaped recovery is still intact.”

He got that right. There is now virtually no adverse economic condition, shock or even mild disturbance that does not generate a Wall Street/Washington consensus in favor or moaaar stimulus owing to five major presumptions:

  • It is assumed that unlimited monetization is sustainable and cost-free;
  • It is assumed that soaring public debt is no problem so long as interest rates are ultra-low;
  • It is assumed that Potential GDP is a real, measurable tangible thing and that any shortfall in actual GDP can and should be eliminated via aggressive monetary and fiscal stimulus;
  • It is assumed that “moral hazard” is old fashioned boogeyman of the fuddy-duddy set that should not interfere with purposeful pursuit of “no fault” macroeconomic stimulus;
  • It is assumed that economic stimulus and humanitarian social safety nets are part and parcel of the same thing and that bailing out reckless companies in order to help needy workers goes with the territory.

These baleful presumptions are now a bipartisan consensus, and it doesn’t take too much cogitation to see that taken together they form a self-fueling doom loop.

For instance, the more the Fed monetizes the public debt with fraudulent credits snatched from thin air, the greater the inflation of financial assets on Wall Street. In turn, that powerfully incentivizes stock-options obsessed corporate C-suites to forgo productive investment on main street in favor of financial engineering schemes like stock buybacks and over-priced M&A deals which pump corporate resources into Wall Street, thereby steadily dragging down the growth rate of GDP and laying the planking for still more “stimulus”.

Likewise, when politicians face no interest cost penalty on rising public debt, they are not loathe to mandate the transfer of societal credit resources to wasteful public expenditures and the subsidization of all manner of reckless and imprudent private financial behaviors. In turn, extensive mis-allocation of credit and private cash flows and widespread incidence of moral hazard undermines economic efficiency and growth rates, eliciting still more excuses for “stimulus”.

These kinds of perverse interactions are surely evident in the Donald’s Tuesday evening tweet in favor of $25 billion for another airline bailout.

Talk about moral hazard! The numbskulls who run the US Big Four airlines fairly reek of it as we showed recently: During the last six years they managed to spend $51 billion on stock buybacks and dividends when they only had $37 trillion of free cash flow to fund these Wall Street pleasing distributions.

But the fact that they piled up their debts from $22 billion to $66 billion during that same six year period to keep the ponzi going was really only the half of it. The US airline industry utilizes well more than $1.5 trillion of jet airliners and airport facilities, but the overwhelming share of that massive asset base is accessed via so-called “operating leases”, the funding for which does not show up as balance sheet debt.

That is to say, cheap debt has fueled the growth of a massive third-party aircraft leasing industry, thereby permitting the airlines to spend current cash flows and balance sheet capacity on financial engineering, rather than the accumulation of debt free assets that could be utilized for collateralized borrowings in exactly the kind of exigent circumstances currently extant.

So now that they have hocked nearly everything that moves or stands still in their far-flung operations, the airlines lamely claim to have no choice except to attempt to blackmail Washington by threatening to throw 50,000 employees under the Airbuses, so to speak.

But as morally repugnant as these maneuvers self-evidently are, the currently threatened massive lay-offs only expose still another layer of moral hazard extant in the industry. To wit, virtually every single airline pilot, flight attendant, mechanic, baggage handler etc is represented by a union. And despite the untoward purposes on which most of their dues are dissipated by union officialdom, one thing the latter have accomplished is to insure that every airline employee is eligible for the state UI programs.

Now that’s exceedingly relevant at this moment because the average annual earnings for the above four classes of airline employees puts them among the aristocracy of hourly wage earners:

  • Pilots: $150,000;
  • Mechanics: $75,000;
  • Flight attendants: $50,000;
  • Baggage handlers: $40,000

That puts virtually all of the ballyhooed airline employees at the top of the scale for UI benefits in most states, which benefits range between $400 and $700 per week for at least 26 weeks. What that means, of course, is that notwithstanding the braying of industry executives and Washington politician alike, these furloughed employees are not about to be thrown into the streets empty-handed; they are actually entitled to the ample job loss insurance benefits that are built into the long-standing social safety net.

Yes, $400 to $700 per week is no princely sum, but periodic job losses due to recession, employer bankruptcy, disruptive technology change, alternative product substitution etc. are an unavoidable and essential feature of prosperous free market capitalism. The state cannot and should not insure laid off-workers for 100% of their previous wage; and even more crucially, it should not dissuade them from building up cash reserves and rainy day funds to augment the state’s modest UI support payments.

Self-evidently, zero interest rates and no-fault bailouts do exactly that: They encourage hand-to-mouth financial life-styles, which leave workers high and dry in the event of unforeseen loss of paychecks and turn them into pawns to be exploited by unscrupulous C-suites and votes to be bid for by the likes of Nancy and the Donald.

Still, to hear the gnashing of teeth and wailing in Washington today you would think it is still 1890 and that 50,000 airline workers are about ready to become regulars at the Salvation Army soup kitchens. That is, in the name of economic stimulus, the pols and the corporate C-suites pretend the UI safety net doesn’t even exist, and that these aristocrats of the wage economy are not getting a level of humanitarian aid that is in the top tier of the labor market.

As for the airline companies, we’d say they know full well the route to the chapter 11 courthouses. Most have already visited such venues, sometimes more than once, and did so while keeping operations going and planes in the air under the supervision of the courts.

To be sure, the proper chapter 11 disposition of these four financial basket cases—Delta, American, United and Southwest—would result in stock prices of zero and the evaporation of billions of stock option values accumulated by the C-suites. And that would not merely amount to condign justice; it’s also exactly what the rules of productive capitalism actually require.

Needless to say, there is hardly a corporals’ guard left in the GOP which comprehends this and has a decent regard for the rules of free market prosperity, while the ranks of such economic enlightenment disappeared from the Government Party (Dems) decades ago. In that regard, Senator William Proxmire (D-Wisconsin) was surely the last of the anti-bailout Mohicans, save for Ralph Nader who quite the party in disgust, anyway.

Moreover, the current favorite “this time is different” excuse—that Dr. Fauci made us do it— doesn’t wash either. If the airlines are being harmed by Fauci and his malpracticing doctors owing to the lockdowns and Covid-Hysteria at loose in the land, they are welcome to lobby for re-opening the economy with all the might they can assemble on K-street, and to spend money assuring the public that the overwhelming share of Americans can travel safely without risk of being felled by the Covid.

In fact, there is a potential market of 210 million American’s under the age of 50 years, who have Covid survival rates ranging between 99.9997% and 99.98%, should they become infected with the virus. In so informing their potential customers, the airlines might even be so bold as to remind them that this infinitesimal Covid risk is only a teeny-tiny smidgen higher than the risk of dying in a plane crash in the first place!

Stated differently, the obligation of the airlines in the face of the Virus Patrol madness is to join the fight against the regulators, not demand indemnification from future taxpayers, born and unborn.

Indeed, that same principle is even more salient with respect to the so-called small business PPP (paycheck protection program). The latter has already indiscriminately and capriciously dispensed $525 billion to more than 5 million small businesses, and the Donald’s promise of a quick $135 billion booster shot is all the more wicked.

Again, it’s not about their workers. The overwhelming share were eligible for the state UI programs already; and, for perhaps $100 billion or less, the so-called contract, gig and part-time workers not typically covered by regular state UI programs could have been funded under the temporary Federal program.

But what has happened now is that the once and former shocks troops of political support for free markets, small government and fiscal rectitude have been turned into sniveling supplicants of the Bailout State.

Indeed, ordinarily the small business lobbies would be screaming to high heaven about their impending doom owning to the regulatory fiats and customer base impairments brought on by the Virus Patrol; they’d literally be demanding Dr. Fauci’s head, just as they did back in the day when the OSHA bureaucrats were riding roughshod across the land.

But politically, they have apparently been bought off by the aforementioned one-half trillion dollars of walking around money. After all, the nationwide high-frequency data provided by the Opportunity Insights Economic Tracker shows that nearly 25% of small businesses in operation last January have still not re-opened and there has been little improvement in the trend since July 4th.

Yet what can be heard in the corridors of Washington is little more than the silence of the lambs. The overwhelming share of small business America has been bought off by the PPP and has joined the ranks of coast-to-coast supplicants who are marching resolutely toward the nation’s fiscal demise.

Meanwhile, all these trillions of Everything Bailout monies have not repaired what actually ails the American economy: Namely, a government ordered supply-side contraction which caused total labor hours employed in September to remain 6.5% below year ago levels.

Needless to say, that is the handiwork of Dr. Fauci and the Virus Patrol, not a faltering of that invisible Keynesian ether called “aggregate demand”. Perhaps better than ever before Say’s Law is speaking loudly: Cause production to be reduced or shutdown, and, yes, incomes and spending will fall.

But the cure is also self-evident and would commence the very minute the Virus Patrol is put out of business and the CDC is returned to its proper function. That is, of educating the public on how they can strengthen their own immune systems and take precautionary steps to minimize the health risks posed by this super-flu—rather than officiously pretending to stop the spread of a contagious virus than cannot be contained owing to the intimately social nature of human society.

Beyond that, the loss of GDP which has already occurred and which will linger for months and years even if the economy is re-opened with alacrity cannot be recaptured by “stimulus” in this case or in any other spell of alleged shortfall from the purported Potential GDP.

The whole notion, in fact, is a dangerous chimera.

END

 
The Fed is going against its policy by not buying corporate ETF’s.  As Doug C. stated to me the Fed is worried about the creditworthiness of those bonds.
(zerohedge)

For The Second Straight Month, The Fed Bought Zero Bond ETFs

 

For much of the past seven months, the biggest story in capital markets was the Fed’s Blackrock-mediated purchases of corporate bonds, either in the primary or secondary market or via ETFs.

As a reminder, while the Fed pre-announced its intention to purchase up to $750BN in corporate bond (including certain fallen-angel junk bonds) in March, it started purchasing bonds in May, and bond ETFs in June (among which such mainstays as LQD and HYG). By directly entering the corporate bond market – something none of his predecessors dared to do even at the depths of the financial crisis  – Powell created what many – us included – said the biggest corporate and junk bond bubble in history, because by backstopping prices the Fed terminally disconnected fundamentals from prices.

And, as expected, bond prices, stocks, and ETFs all surged while yields plunged, even while the underlying cash flow fundamentals deteriorated as everyone was trying to front-run the Fed’s pending or concurrent massive purchases. In other words, by jawboning alone, the Fed accomplished its handiwork.

Yet something odd happened last month: in all of August, when during the peak summer doldrums it was SoftBank’s turn to steal the spotlight with its now infamous gamma meltup, the Fed did not buy a single ETF, and barely bought any corporate bonds, which prompted us to ask: is Powell sending markets a message?

In retrospect it appears he was, because after an early swoon in the first days of September, stocks suffered their first major bout of turbulence since June last month when they closed in the red for the first time since the covid pandemic broke out.

So fast forward to today when the Fed released the latest monthly activity details under its Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facility when we find that for the second month in a row, the Fed bought zero corporate ETFs…

… and logically, the number of ETF shares held was unchanged for the second consecutive month:

Looking at the bond level data showed a similar picture: here the Fed or rather Blackrock was just a bit busier, and bought just $420 million par value of bonds between Aug 31 and Sept 29, after purchasing just $421 million the month prior.

However, unlike August when Blackrock purchased $7 million in Apple bonds across three CUSIPs with maturity dates in 2023, 2024 and 2025.

Why the Fed continues to buy Apple bonds – which are arguably the most liquid corporate bonds in the world – remains a mystery.

In any case, the modest September purchases, the Fed’s total corporate bond holdings rose by $394 million from $3.988 billion to 4.382 billion, an amount which also included the redemptions of several issues.  And when combined with its $8.618 billion in ETF holdings, this means that as of August 31, the Fed owned just over $13 billion in bonds and ETFs.

Why is this notable?

Because this $13BN of bond purchases to date is a long way away from the $750BN figure the Fed initially said it was targeting and is far below the bogey the market has in mind. , as Johnson says “is currently in market participants psyche (i.e., 1.8% of what many continue to think the Fed will spend)”.

What are the implications?

The fact that the Fed stopped supporting the corporate bond ETF market during August and then again in September, appears to be a rather stark – if still unspoken – reversal in Fed policy stance, and one which we wish a “financial reporter” had asked Chair Powell to explain why during last month’s FOMC conference.

The key question, as we asked one month ago, “could it be that the Fed is starting to telegraph to the market that it moved too far, too fast? We hope to have the answer one month from today when we will learn if the Fed bought no ETFs for 3 consecutive months, and remember: “Once is happenstance. Twice is coincidence. Three times is enemy action.”

END

Trump to join Tucker Carlson tonight on his first post diagnosis on camerea interview

(zerohedge)

Trump To Join “Tucker Carlson Tonight” For First Post-Diagnosis On-Camera Interview

 
 

While possibly still contagious, President Trump will reportedly deliver his first live, on-camera interview since testing positive with COVID-19 on Friday evening. The interview will take place on Fox News’ “Tucker Carlson Tonight”.

In a memo released last night, Trump’s doctors said the president would return to public engagements on Saturday, though there was some confusion, as Saturday is actually only nine days since Thursday evening, when Trump says he first tested positive.

Trump’s last Fox News interview was a Thursday-night call with Sean Hannity where the president said he felt “great” and commented on the news that Hope Hicks, one of his top aides, had been sickened.

During the interview, Dr. Marc Siegel will conduct a medical evaluation of the president, and he’ll also interview him.

The news comes as the NYT has published its latest anonymously sourced piece claiming Trump has been demanding that aides support his return to campaigning immediately, as he reportedly fumes over the press coverage of his illness.

END

NEW YORK/BROADWAY THEATRE

They are now shutdown until May 2021

(zerohedge)

“Absolutely Crushed” – Broadway Theater Shutdown Extended Until Next Spring 

 

Broadway’s 41 theaters in New York City are now suspending ticket sales through May 30, 2021, according to a Friday morning announcement from The Broadway League, which represents producers and theater owners.

Charlotte St. Martin, President of the Broadway League, said, “with nearly 97,000 workers who rely on Broadway for their livelihood and an annual economic impact of $14.8 billion to the city, our membership is committed to re-opening as soon as conditions permit us to do so.” 

Martin said the league is “working tirelessly with multiple partners on sustaining the industry once we raise our curtains again.” 

All of Broadway’s theaters were abruptly closed in early March as the virus pandemic swept through the city. All shows have been canceled ever since, with producers previously extending the shutdown from June 7 to Sept. 6 to Jan. 3, 2021, to now May 31, 2021. 

FOX 5 New York said the latest extension to close theaters would result in further difficulties in the first half of 2021 for Broadway, including the release of new shows in the spring. 

With Broadway closed, actors have very little work. Actors’ Equity Association, the labor union representing 51,000 actors, has requested Washington to provide those in the performing arts industry with funding and loans amid shutdowns. 

“We’re in the middle of the worst crisis facing the American theater since the flu of 1918, and why would now be the time to change our decades-long relationship of working together?” said Mary McColl, Equity’s executive director. 

McColl said, “it doesn’t help actors and stage managers, and it doesn’t help the labor movement. We should be fighting to protect the workers, and instead, we’re in this argument about whose fence should be where.”

Broadway has shuttered its doors for nearly seven months – has been devastating for the local economy, as the lack of tourists who venture to the city’s musicals and plays contributes billions of dollars every year to small and medium-sized businesses. About 65% of Broadway’s annual sales include tourists from out of state. 

Social media was devastated by Broadway’s extended closure: 

END

The Trafalgar group are excellent pollsters and got the 2016 election perfectly where nobody else did

They predict a Trump electoral college victory of 275 seats. Trump needs 270 to win it all.

(zerohedge)

Poll Which Correctly Called 2016 Election Sees Another “Shocking” Outcome In November

 

With the help of Paul Hoffmeister, chief economist at Camelot Portfolios

With Election Day less than a month away, we look at which party will likely control the White House, Senate and House in 2020… and what to watch for on Election Night.

Currently, the major polls give former Vice President Biden more than a 9-point lead nationally against President Trump – according to RealClearPolitics National Average.

And the Predictit markets imply a 67% probability of Biden winning on November 3rd. Additionally, those markets suggest that Democrats will win both the Senate and House (66% and 88% probabilities, respectively). Quite simply, it appears that a Blue Wave is fast approaching, something which the market has not only priced in, but has successfully digested as a favorable narrative for risk assets.

It would be easy to simply close the books and call the November contest over. But, of course, the major polls were all wrong in 2016; notably about the presidential race.

In the following Election Review from Camelot Portfolios, we look at what some of the polling firms that called 2016 correctly are seeing today. “Shocking”, their polling suggests that President Trump will be re-elected, either narrowly or by a large margin. Therefore, as Camelot notes, “capital allocators today cannot easily assume next month’s results.”

It’s very possible that Trump will win Florida, North Carolina and Arizona. If so, a win in Pennsylvania or Michigan will likely put him over the top in the electoral college. And speaking of “shocking”, Camelot notes that as far as the Senate and House are concerned, it also appears that Republicans will keep control of the Senate, especially if Trump has a strong night. On the other hand, the House is highly likely to remain in Democratic control.

First, a few quick notes, on what happened over the past four years, and a look at the “Market Narrative” of Trump’s presidency prior to Covid-19:

  • In 2017, the S&P 500 rallied in a relatively consistent fashion; due primarily, in our view, to the tailwinds of major deregulation and tax cuts.
  • Contrary to warnings that a Trump presidency would lead to a market crash, most notably by Paul Krugman, the S&P has returned 57.7% since President Trump’s election in 2016 (November 7, 2016 through October 6, 2020) – not including dividends.

Fast forward to today, when according to online betting site PredictIt.org, the probability of Democrats winning White House 63%, win Senate 66%, win House 88% (here, a question should be asked: since the contracts are relatively illiquid, is there one or more major players who have “cornered” the PredictIt market and are swaying public opinion with relatively low sums of cash).

Next, we look at the Electoral College Map after the 2016 election:

  • In 2016, Secretary of State Clinton received 65,853514 votes, or 48.2% of the popular vote. Donald Trump received 62,984,828 votes, or 46.1%. (source: Federal Election Commission)
  • In terms of the electoral college, however, Trump handily beat Clinton with 306 votes versus 232 for Clinton. (source: Business Insider)
  • Trump won the key swing states in the Rust Belt: PA, OH, MI and WI.
  • And, Trump won the key swing states of FL, NC and  AZ.

This outcome was not predicted by virtually any pollster in 2016, when most of the major polls were wrong, but not all:

Among these major polls, Clinton led Trump by 3.2% during the week prior to Election Day. More accurate pollsters incorporated likely voters and attempted to adjust for ‘shy voters’.

Trafalgar Group was named best polling firm of 2016 presidential race. It was one of few pollsters to predict Trump would win PA and MI (sources: Trafalgar Group and RealClearPolitics) and also Trump’s victory. This is what Politico wrote in its post-election mea culpa about the Trafalgar Group:

The signs of a polling disaster were all there, but almost no one besides Donald Trump was paying attention.

There were surveys showing Trump winning, but they were ignored by most news outlets, dismissed as partisan polls conducted using automated phone technology that eschews calling cell-phone users.

the state polling this year was sparse, especially in the closing days. Of the 11 states POLITICO identified as Electoral College battlegrounds earlier this year, four of them didn’t see a nonpartisan, public, live-interview poll for the final week of the campaign: Colorado, Nevada, Ohio and Wisconsin. Taken together, it was a recipe for an epic polling failure.

* * *

Few, it seems, paid attention to the surveys from the Trafalgar Group – a Georgia-based consulting firm that, on its website, celebrates the time RealClearPolitics picked up one of its Florida primary polls – showing Trump ahead. The group’s Pennsylvania poll was the only one of dozens since late July to show the GOP nominee in the lead there – but it was also the only poll conducted into this past weekend, as voters made their final choices.

The Trafalgar Group was somewhat prolific on Monday, the day before the election, releasing surveys in Florida (Trump ahead by 4 points), Michigan (Trump ahead by 2 points) and Georgia (Trump ahead by 7 points).

At a time when the polling industry was crushed by its collectively incompetence, the praise for Trafalgar continued:

The secret to Trafalgar’s success is that it best adjusted its polling to include ‘shy Trump voters’ and the votes missed in other polls. Democracy Institute also correctly predicted Trump’s victory in 2016, as well as Brexit.

Which brings us to today, and what Camelot Portfolios sees as the likely firewall states for Trump and Biden:

Which brings us to the punchline, and what Trafalgar sees as the outcome on Nov 3. In a nutshell, based on Trafalgar swing state polls, Trumps wins with 275 electoral votes:

  • Only asks likely voters, and asks about so-called ‘shy votes’.
  • Trump leads Biden 46%-45%, nationally.
  • Trump leads in swing states (FL, IA, MI, MN, PA, WI) 47% to 43%.
  • Trump’s swing state leads would give him 320 electoral votes, and Biden 218.
  • 77% of Trump voters would not admit to friends and family.
  • Amy Coney Barrett nomination has little impact on approximately 8 in 10 voters.
  • Law and order is top issue (32%). Economy is second (30%).
  • Voters trust Trump more on economy than Biden: 60% to 40%, respectively

But wait, there’s more shocks, because according to Camelot, Republicans are also likely to retain their control of the Senate.

  • Current Senate makeup is 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats and Independents.
  • 35 Senate seats up for grabs.
  • 23 seats are held by Republicans; 12 held by Democrats.
  • Republicans at disadvantage; need to protect more seats.
  • Most vulnerable incumbents are in: Alabama (Jones-D), Colorado (Gardner-R), Maine (Collins-R), Michigan (Peters-D).
  • Assuming Trump polling in these four states will determine the Senate race: Republicans likely to pick up AL, Democrats likely to pick up CO and Maine – for net gain of one seat in Senate.
  • Outlier Scenarios: Trafalgar polling shows Republican in Michigan (John James) with slight lead; and Democrat in North Carolina with slight lead.
  • Likely November: Republicans keep Senate control with 52 seats.

Finally, in what may be the worst possible news for markets which are now convinced a blue sweep is inevitable, Camelot says that Democrats will continue their dominance in the House, where they have a clear advantage:

  • 2016: RealClearPolitics Average had Democrats +0.6 near Election Day -> Final was Republicans +1.1 -> GOP lost 6 seats; maintained majority 241-194
  • 2018: RealClearPolitics Average had Democrats +7.3 near Election Day -> Final was Democrats +8.4 -> Democrats gained 41 seats; retook majority 235-199
  • 2020: RealClearPolitics Average has Democrats +6.0 during the last week.

Readers curious for more can register for the next Camelot call, which will take place next Tuesday, Oct 13 at the following link.

end

ESPN To Make Sweeping Layoffs In Effort To Save “Tens Of Millions” In Salaries

 
 
t

 

 

Things look like they are going just splendidly in the world of sports in 2020.

In addition to having to deal with the public’s incessant fear of coronavirus (despite the fact that none of the scores of professional athletes in the U.S. that have tested positive have wound up visibly sick or in the hospital, let alone dead, from the virus), major professional sports leagues have also decided to play politics, injecting themselves into the heart of a nationwide racism uproar, instead of basketball and football.

In addition to ratings plunging for both the NBA and the NFL this year, the “get woke, go broke” results continue to take hold. 

Now, ESPN is making another round of sweeping layoffs. It’s blaming the coronavirus, naturally, because it certainly can’t blame its own politicized discussions during almost every major sporting event it has broadcast over the last few months. 

According to NJ.com, the network is trying to cut “tens of millions” in salary:

One source pegged the potential number of job losses between 300 and 700 employees. Another estimated 400 possible lost jobs. The cuts are expected to hit hardest among ESPN employees who work behind the camera. But some on-camera TV and radio talents could be impacted — particularly if their contracts are expiring this year. The network may also ask its highest-earning talent and executives to take a reduction in salary. The goal is to potentially cut tens of millions in salary, said sources.

The cuts come right after ESPN’s parent company, Disney, also announced a sweeping round of more than 25,000 job cuts days ago. 

Additionally, recall yesterday, we pointed out that amidst a ratings plunge, the NBA is likely going to be pulling its BLM messaging from its courts and jerseys next season. 

NBA Commissioner Adam Silver appeared to confirm early this week that Black Lives Matter messaging will be pulled from the court and from players jerseys next year. According to The Blaze, Silver alluded to the messaging being removed despite the league being “completely committed to standing for social justice and racial equality.” 

He said implementing the change is “something we’re gonna have to sit down with the players and discuss.”

He told Rachel Nichols of ESPN: “I would say, in terms of the messages you see on the court and our jerseys, this was an extraordinary moment in time when we began these discussions with the players and what we all lived through this summer. My sense is there’ll be somewhat a return to normalcy — that those messages will largely be left to be delivered off the floor.”

The NBA has seen its ratings (and likely its ad revenue) plunge to historic lows this year amidst the league’s decision to focus more on politics. 

It appears that viewers are no longer interested in the political and social justice messages of the NBA but rather were tuning in for (believe it or not) actual basketball. As the balance of the league has tipped from less sport to more activism, viewers are tuning out.

In fact, the ratings made Game 2 the least watched NBA Finals game on record, dropping below the 7.41 Game 1, which was the lowest viewed finals opener in history. 

END

iv) Swamp commentaries)

This ought to be fun: A federal judge overturns Obama judge and wife of a Mueller special counsel lawyer reinstating Archer’s conviction of fraud.  Archer is the business partner of Hunter Biden in Burisma.

Hunter Biden Longtime Biz Partner And Burisma Board-Buddy Going To Prison After Obama Judge Reversed

 

A federal appeals court has reinstated a fraud conviction of Hunter Biden’s longtime business partner, Devon Archer, reversing a decision by an Obama-appointed judge (and wife of Mueller special counsel lawyer) to vacate Archer’s conviction and grant him a new trial.

 

Devon Archer (far left) is pictured with Joe and Hunter Biden. (Screenshot from Twitter)

Archer and several of his business partners were indicted on March 26, 2018 in a $60 million bond scheme which defrauded Native Americans. Hunter was not implicated in the fraud, however Archer and the other partners repeatedly name-dropped the former Vice President’s son.

Following a trial which lasted nearly one-month, Archer was found guilty of conspiracy to commit securities fraud and securities fraud. After requesting that the district court set aside the jury’s verdict, Judge Ronnie Abrams – the wife of Mueller special counsel attorney Greg Andres (who himself was a Deputy Assistant AG in the Obama DOJ, according to RedState) – granted Archer’s wish. What’s more, Abrams was Hunter Biden’s classmate at Yale Law school.

Not so fast Judge Ronnie…

In a unanimous opinion, a three-judge panel said that Abrams made a mistake by prioritizing her own theory above that of the jury’s, and that her assessment undercut the significance of the proof in its totality.

Archer was Yale roommates with John Kerry’s stepson Chris Heinz – the two of whom opened investment firm Rosemont Capital with Hunter. Rosemont Capital is the parent company of Rosemont Seneca Partners, LLC – the entity which receive the Burisma payments and in turn aid Biden.

It was through Archer’s trial that we learned large sums of Chinese and Ukrainian money was flowing into accounts owned by Archer and Hunter Biden, specifically a Morgan Stanley account for Rosemont Seneca Bohai, LLC – which Ukrainian gas giant Burisma wired $166,666.66 in two identical payments in 2014 and 2015, according to Just The News.

Archer’s bank statement released in the trial also revealed that the China state-owned Bank of China directly funneled more than $100,000 into the same account as Burisma beginning in December 2014. Another entity, Novatus Holding Pte. Ltd., wired $142,300 to the Rosemont account on April 22, 2014. That entity is controlled by a Kazakh businessman named Kenges Rakishev who has close ties to the leaders of Kazakhstan.

Many of the financial records revealed during Archer’s 2018 trial became the subject of a joint Senate committee investigation. The GOP-led investigation slammed the Bidens and their associates for apparent conflicts of interest and flagged possible criminal activity while citing “glaring” evidence of Burisma bribes, suspicious foreign money transfers and sex trafficking.Just The News

In summary – the US Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit unanimously called out a judge whose numerous conflicts of interest may have led her to give Devon Archer a second chance.

(h/t Just The News, Redstate’s ‘Shipwreckedcrew’ and Ben Tallmadge)

end
 
Regrettably the Durham report will not be ready by election time
(zerohedge)

Durham Report Won’t Be Ready By Election: AG Barr

 

Attorney General Bill Bar has begun telling Republican leaders that the DOJ’s sweeping review into the ‘Russiagate’ investigation won’t produce results before the election, according to Axios.

Recall last month that Democrats were frothing at the mouth over the investigation, conducted by US Attorney John Durham – with the Democratic chairs of four House committees demanding an “emergency investigation” into the probe out of fear of an “October surprise.”

 

US Attorney John Durham
 

Now, it looks like that was much ado about nothing – as Barr “has made clear that they should not expect any further indictments or a comprehensive report before Nov. 3,” according to the report.

“This is the nightmare scenario. Essentially, the year and a half of arguably the number one issue for the Republican base is virtually meaningless if this doesn’t happen before the election,” a GOP aide told Axios.

And as Politico notes, “Senate Republicans running similar investigations were told of the intention within the last week — and it’s why they’ve been stepping up their releases of declassified documents.”

“BUT TRUMP AND HIS ALLIES were pushing for much more than that; they wanted DOJ to indict their Obama-era foes as they seek to rewrite the Russia investigation and turn it against Democrats. The president channeled his grievances by retweeting supporters demanding that Barr immediately arrest and jail Trump’s political enemies like Barack Obama, Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton. Late Wednesday afternoon, Director of National Intelligence John Ratcliffe said his office ‘has now provided almost 1,000 pages of materials to the Department of Justice in response to Mr. Durham’s document requests.’” –Politico

In recent weeks, we’ve learned that US intelligence officials forwarded an investigative referral to former FBI officials James Comey and Peter Strzok concerning allegations that Hillary Clinton approved a plan to smear then-candidate Donald Trump by tying him to Russian President Vladimir Putin and Russian hackers, according to information given to Sen. Lindsey Graham by the Director of National Intelligence.

Notably, former CIA Director John Brennan briefed then-president Obama on Hillary’s alleged approval.

 

As part of his investigation, Durham has interviewed Brennan and others, allegedly regarding the CIA’s assessment that Russian President Vladimir Putin was behind interference in the 2016 US election in order to help President Trump.

In an August 13th interview, Barr said he expects “significant” developments to come out of the investigation before the election. Days later, former FBI lawyer Kevin Clinesmith pleaded guilty to fabricating evidence used to obtain surveillance warrants on former Trump adviser Carter Page. Clinesmith -who worked on both the Hillary Clinton email investigation and the Russia probe, was part of Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s team, and interviewed Trump campaign advisor George Papadopoulos.

We can’t help but wonder if Durham’s report will look the same if Biden wins in November.

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

Trump says stimulus talks ‘very productive;’ airlines and $1,200 checks on the table

https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/pelosi-stimulus-checks-donald-trump-1200

 

Regeneron requests emergency use approval for antibody treatment taken by Trump; stock rises 4% in premarket – “If an EUA is granted the government has committed to making these doses available to the American people at no cost and would be responsible for their distribution… we expect to have doses available for 300,000 patients in total within the next few months…” https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/08/regeneron-requests-eua-from-the-fda-for-coronavirus-treatment.html

Pelosi questions Trump’s health, says ‘we’re going to be talking about the 25th Amendment’

Pelosi questioned how long President Trump has had coronavirus – “Tomorrow, by the way, tomorrow, come here tomorrow,” Pelosi said. “We’re going to be talking about the 25th Amendment.”…

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/pelosi-trump-talking-25th-amendment

 

The 25th Amendment does not give the House the sole power to remove the president.

 

Section 4.. of the 25th amendment: It allows the Vice President and either the Cabinet, or a body approved “by law” formed by Congress, to jointly agree that “the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office.”… It also allows the President to protest such a decision, and for two-thirds of Congress to decide in the end if the President is unable to serve due to a condition perceived by the Vice President, and either the Cabinet or a body approved by Congress… much of the key decision making under this Amendment pivots on determinations that must be personally made by the Vice President.”… https://constitutioncenter.org/blog/breaking-down-the-25th-amendment-what-you-need-to-know

 

Pelosi knows invoking the 25th Amendment is futile.  She can’t get a 2/3 vote from Congress or VP approval.  Why is Pelosi acting unhinged?  Is it internal polling?  Is it Harris’s poor debate performance (more below)?  Is it fear of coming Spygate revelations or indictments?  Are Dems splintering because Biden-Harris is trying to rescind their prior advocacy for leftist initiatives?  There is NO reason for Pelosi to go down this path three weeks before the election unless something very big is up!

 

Newsweek: On Thursday, Trump told Fox Business’ Maria Bartiromo that Biden and Obama “spited’ his campaign and urged Attorney General Bill Barr to indict them because “we got plenty, you don’t need any more.”… https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-calls-ag-barr-indict-joe-biden-26-days-until-election-1537518

 

@paulsperry_: Longtime Hillary operative Jake Sullivan — a key architect of the Spygate plot — is currently advising Biden as a campaign foreign policy aide, drawing Biden even closer into the mushrooming scandal

 

The worsening of the venomous political atmosphere in the USA should concern everyone, not just market participants.  It’s a time to be extremely cautious and judicious.  Many investment managers and traders don’t understand that they get paid to watch when things get too dicey.

After the close on Thursday, reports said Pelosi talked with Mnuchin for 40 minutes on a stimulus plan and Pelosi on Friday will introduce a bill that creates a commission to review the President’s health and fitness for office.  Once again, why the unhinged panic just 3.5 weeks before an election?

 

Federal appeals court reinstates charges against Hunter Biden’s business partner

Devon Archer is charged with fraud, conspiracy – Hunter Biden was not charged in the scheme, but Biden’s name was reportedly “invoked at various stages of the fraud as a selling point in transactions.”

https://justthenews.com/accountability/russia-and-ukraine-scandals/federal-appeals-court-reinstates-charges-against-hunter

 

Speaker Pelosi Revs Up, Yes, the 25th Amendment by ex-federal prosecutor Andy McCarthy

Does it get any stupider than this? So, unless some reasonably sane person talks her out of it, Speaker Pelosi is planning to roll out her 25th Amendment plan tomorrow to remove President Trump from office. Less than four weeks from Election Day, when there is not an iota of indication that he is under any disability that would prevent him from discharging his duties. And with not even the remotest chance of meeting the constitutional requirements to invoke the amendment Other than that, it’s a great idea. Especially if the speaker is trying to establish that she’s the one who has gone off the deep end.

https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/speaker-pelosi-revs-up-yes-the-25th-amendment/

 

@realDonaldTrump: Crazy Nancy is the one who should be under observation. They don’t call her Crazy for nothing!

 

House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, speaking on the @marklevinshow, announced that due to Pelosi’s unhinged behavior, he will organize a coalition of House members to evaluate Pelosi’s mental capacity and fitness to remain the Speaker of the House.

 

If Biden were really leading by double digits, do you think Pelosi would pull this stunt?  No, Dems would try to run out the clock.

 

The Fed balance sheet increased $18.52B.  Currency swaps -$8.57B; security monetization $ +24.385B

https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/current/

 

Coronavirus Hit the U.S. Long before We Knew [before January] (We’ve noted this months ago!)

Months before travel bans and lockdowns, Americans were transmitting the virus across the country

The latest genetic, epidemiological and computational research suggests it was spreading inside the country before anyone started looking… Retrospective testing in Ohio found that five women and a man who had developed Covid-like symptoms in early January had antibodies for the virus, qualifying as “probable” infections…  https://www.wsj.com/graphics/when-did-covid-hit-earliest-death/

@cspan: Commission on Presidential Debates Announces Second Presidential Debate will be Virtual

https://twitter.com/cspan/status/1314166501746896896

 

Ex-Director of Nat’l Intelligence @RichardGrenell: Pence crushes Kamala and the debate Commission immediately announces the next debate must be virtual.  The American people see what the DC insiders are doing – they want Biden to win.

 

@DonaldJTrumpJr: Does anyone else find it awfully coincidental that the morning after Mike Pence destroys Kamala Harris in a debate that the “debate commission” unilaterally changes the format to obviously benefit Basement Biden?  This is such bull$#it! Yea, let Biden do it from his basement so people can feed him his talking points all night long. GTFO!!!

 

@EricTrump: Biden’s mouth is watering at the notion of a virtual debate – he will have 12 teleprompters and 14 campaign staffers holding flash cards on the other side of that camera!

 

Sen @HawleyMO: As Dems have been hoping & begging for, the Commission on Presidential Debates cancelled in-person debates for the rest of campaign. Now cancel the Commission. It’s a disgrace

 

Fox’s @ChadPergram: Trump campaign: For the swamp creatures at the Presidential Debate Commission to now rush to Joe Biden’s defense by unilaterally canceling an in-person debate is pathetic…We’ll pass on this sad excuse to bail out Joe Biden and do a rally instead.

 

Trump says he will ‘not waste my time’ with a ‘virtual debate’ after CPD announces changes

Trump tells Fox Business’ Maria Bartiromo a virtual debate would be ‘ridiculous’

    The president said he wasn’t going to “sit at a computer” to debate, calling it “ridiculous.”  “They’re trying to protect Biden,” Trump said. “Everybody is.”…

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/second-trump-biden-debate-will-be-virtual-organizers-say

 

@SkyNewsBreak: The Biden campaign has rejected a call from the Trump campaign for the debates to be pushed back a week to 22 and 29 October after Don Trump ruled out a proposal for a virtual debate

 

Trump campaign statement on unilateral decision of the Commission on Presidential Debates

“President Trump won the first debate despite a terrible and biased moderator in Chris Wallace, and everybody knows it. For the swamp creatures at the Presidential Debate Commission to now rush to Joe Biden’s defense by unilaterally canceling an in-person debate is pathetic. That’s not what debates are about or how they’re done. Here are the facts: President Trump will have posted multiple negative tests prior to the debate, so there is no need for this unilateral declaration. The safety of all involved can easily be achieved without canceling a chance for voters to see both candidates go head to head. We’ll pass on this sad excuse to bail out Joe Biden and do a rally instead.”

https://twitter.com/ErinMPerrine/status/1314178536169709568/photo/1

 

Telemundo Deletes Twitter Poll following VP Debate after Kamala Gets CRUSHED by Pence 74% to 26%   https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/10/telemundo-deletes-twitter-poll-following-vp-debate-kamala-gets-crushed-pence-74-26/

 

Undecided voters pan Harris’ ‘condescending reactions’ in VP debate

Pollster Frank Luntz at the L.A. Times conducted a focus group of undecided voters throughout the 90-minute exchange. By the end, they’d rendered their verdict: “I might get cancelled for this, but my undecided focus group doesn’t like how Kamala Harris interacts with her opponent,” Luntz posted on Twitter. “We saw this in the Dem debates – she is applauded for her knowledge, but they just don’t like her ‘condescending reactions.’ 

https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/elections/undecided-voters-pan-harris-condescending-reactions-vp-debate-partisans

 

@SteveGuest: ABC News’ Sara Fagen: Vice President @Mike_Pence “really had Sen. Harris on the defensive”    https://twitter.com/SteveGuest/status/1314211634865299464?s=09

 

@TrumpWarRoom: CNN’s Jake Tapper calls out Kamala Harris for refusing to answer on court packing. “Harris wouldn’t answer the question about the court packing, and that’s significant. Biden and Harris should answer it.”   https://twitter.com/TrumpWarRoom/status/1314061465066917889

 

@SteveGuest: Joe Biden AGAIN [Thursday] refuses to say whether he supports packing the Supreme Court. “You’ll know my opinion on court packing when the election is over… The moment I answer that question, the headline in every one of your papers will be about that.” https://twitter.com/SteveGuest/status/1314294824783294464

 

Ex-Clinton serf, George Stephanopoulos of ABC, accused Pence of ‘mansplaining’ Harris. This is French for ‘Pence crushed Harris’.  Stephie was sneakily accusing Pence of sexism for daring to criticize Harris.

T-shirts with a picture of Harris saying, “I’m speaking!” appeared after the debate.  This means Team Biden planned to use the gender card and issued Harris phases to use in the debate.

 

Here’s why Joe and Kamala dodge controversial questions and issues:

AOC slams Kamala Harris for fracking stance after VP debate https://t.co/qVaRiU0VYE

 

The VP Debate on Wednesday night, heralded as the most important VP Debate in history due to the expectation that Biden won’t finish a term, was a debacle for the Harris Administration as she labeled it.  Plus, the ratings were huge (57.9m), the largest for a VP Debate since 1976!

https://twitter.com/koblin/status/1314318565701562369?s=02

 

The audience got to see why Harris, the favorite to win the Dem Presidential nomination before the Dem Debates commenced, garnered only 3% of Dem primary votes and dropped out of the race very early.  She dodged questions on packing the Supreme Court, the Green Deal, China and late-term abortion.  She is unlikeable [see above].  HarrIs played the Race & Gender Cards by design when she got flustered. The pro-Pelosi/Biden moderator, Susan Page, intervened to save Harris several times.

 

VP Debate Post-Mortem: Pence Trounces “Gaffe Machine” Harris

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/vp-debate-post-mortem

 

@thechrisbuskirk: Harris says Lincoln didn’t nominate a supreme justice before the 1864 election. That’s because when Taney died on 10/13 the senate was out of session. When they returned on 12/6 he nominated Salmon Chase that day and the senate confirmed him that day too.

 

@pnjaban: After this election is over, the @GOP needs to have a VERY SERIOUS conversation about a lot of things — letting a bunch of leftists/conservatives in drag control debates; letting loser grifters who suck campaigns dry, obtain positions of power; letting people who don’t support/

[For decades the GOP tolerated crap like this.  But, DJT fights like a Dem.  That’s why he is hated.]

 

FBI Stonewalling Congressional Oversight on Hunter Biden   https://t.co/3hcWCpUeM3

 

@1776Stonewall: According to a new Gallup survey 56% of Americans still say they are better off now than they were 4 years ago. That’s 12 points higher than Reagan when he won 49 states. It’s also 10 points higher than Obama when he won reelection. And 9 points higher than Bush 43

https://twitter.com/1776Stonewall/status/1314323245940834312

https://news.gallup.com/opinion/gallup/321650/gallup-election-2020-coverage.aspx

 

Damning new evidence from FBI’s pursuit of Michael Flynn  https://t.co/Injuh8asWh

 

Suspect Charged in Gov. (MI) Gretchen Whitmer Kidnap Plot Had Anarchist Flag, Hates Police http://dlvr.it/RjDJ0d

 

CBS LA: Mail including voter ballots found discarded in Twentynine Palms and Joshua Tree

 

[58k] Mail-in ballots to be sent out last week in Westmoreland County [PA] remain missing

https://www.wpxi.com/news/top-stories/mail-in-ballots-that-were-be-sent-out-last-week-westmoreland-county-remain-missing/7Y66YKXPM5ACNMV6XLWLVFHUM4/

 

Well that is all for today

I will see you MONDAY night.

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