JAN 26//GOLD DOWN $4.15 TO $1856.40//SILVER UP 7 CENTS TO $25.50//GOLD TONNAGE (QUEUE JUMP) INCREASES AGAIN//CORONAVIRUS AND VACCINE COMMENTARIES TONIGHT//ITALY’S PRIME MINISTER CONTE QUITS: ITALY UNSTABLE AGAIN//DRONE ATTACK ON THE SAUDI CAPITAL FOILED: IF THIS CONTINUES TROUBLE AHEAD!…IN THE USA ATTACKS ON CONSERVATIVES ESCALATES!!//TEXAS WINS IN COURT AGAINST THE RIDICULOUS BAN OF DEPORTATION//HUGE SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

GOLD:$1856.40 DOWN  $4.15   The quote is London spot price

Silver:$25.50. UP  $0.07   London spot price ( cash market)

your data…

 

Closing access prices:  London spot

i)Gold : $1851.00  LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

ii)SILVER:  $25.46//LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

 

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COMEX DATA

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: JANUARY 2021 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,854.900000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 01/25/2021 DELIVERY DATE: 01/27/2021
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
072 C GOLDMAN 1
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 2
661 C JP MORGAN 14
732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 3
737 C ADVANTAGE 18
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 19 19
MONTH TO DATE: 2,029

 
 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

receiving today: 14/19

 
 

issued:0

GOLDMAN SACHS STOPPED 0 CONTRACTS.

 
 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  JAN. CONTRACT: 19 NOTICE(S) FOR 1900 OZ  (0.0590 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  2029 NOTICES FOR 202,900 OZ  (6.311 tonnes) 

SILVER//JANUARY CONTRACT

 

6 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 30,000  OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month: 1285 for 6,425,000  oz

BITCOIN MORNING QUOTE  $31,566   DOWN 694

BITCOIN AFTERNOON QUOTE.:  $32,133  DOWN 137 DOLLARS .

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

GLD AND SLV INVENTORIES:

WITH GOLD DOWN $4.15  AND NO PHYSICAL TO BE FOUND ANYWHERE:

WITH ALL REFINERS CLOSED//MEXICO ORDERING ALL MINES SHUT:   WHERE ARE THEY GETTING THE “PHYSICAL?

NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD

GLD: 1,273.25 TONNES OF GOLD//

WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY: AND WITH NO SILVER AROUND:

NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV..

INVENTORY RESTS AT:

SLV: 576.343  MILLION OZ./

 

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

IN SILVER THE COMEX OI FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 487 CONTRACTS FROM 156,235 DOWN TO 167,748, AND FURTHER FROM  OUR NEW RECORD OF 244,710, (FEB 25/2020. THE LOSS IN OI OCCURRED WITH OUR SMALL $0.05 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. IT SEEMS THAT THE LOSS IN COMEX OI IS  DUE TO CONSIDERABLE BANKER AND ALGO  SHORT COVERING..  COUPLED AGAINST A TINY EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL. WE ALSO HAD TINY IF ANY LONG LIQUIDATION, AND A GOOD INCREASE IN SILVER OUNCES STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR JAN.  WE HAD A TINY NET LOSS IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 262 CONTRACTS  (SEE CALCULATIONS BELOW).

WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A TINY  NUMBER OF  COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE:  178, AS WE HAD THE FOLLOWING ISSUANCE:   MARCH  178 FOR ZERO ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  178 CONTRACTS. THE BANKERS ARE NOW BEING BITTEN BY THOSE SERIAL FORWARDS (EFP’S CIRCULATING IN LONDON)AS THEY ARE NOW BEING EXERCISED AND COMING BACK TO NEW YORK FOR REDEMPTION OF METAL.  THE COST TO SERVICE THESE SERIAL FORWARDS IS HIGH TO OUR BANKERS  BUT THEY HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO ISSUE A FEW OF THEM!

HISTORY OF SILVER OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR THE PAST 26 MONTHS.

 

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

7.32     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

2.630     MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOV.

20.970   MILLION OZ  FINAL STANDING IN DEC

5.075     MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JAN

1.480    MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN FEB

23.005  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAR

4.660  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR APRIL

45.220 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAY

2.205  MILLION OF FINAL STANDING FOR JUNE

86.470 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JULY.

6.475 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN AUGUST

55.400 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN SEPT

8.900 MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT.

3.950 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN NOV.

46.685 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR DEC.

6.425 MILLION INITIAL STANDING FOR JAN 2021

MONDAY, AGAIN OUR CROOKS USED COPIOUS PAPER IN ORDER TO LIQUIDATE SILVER’S PRICE…AND THEY WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL 5 CENTS) ).. AND, OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS WERE  SOME WHAT SUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE  SOME SILVER LONGS AS WE HAD A TINY LOSS IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES (262 CONTRACTS). NO DOUBT THE TOTAL LOSS IN OI  IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES WERE DUE TO i)BANKER/ALGO SHORT COVERING.  WE ALSO HAD  ii)  A TINY ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS 2) A GOOD GAIN IN SILVER OZ  STANDING  FOR OCTOBER, iii) TINY COMEX LOSS AND iv) MINOR LONG LIQUIDATION. YOU CAN BET THE FARM THAT OUR BANKERS  ARE DESPERATE TO LIQUIDATE THEIR HUGE SHORT POSITIONS IN SILVER..

 
 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

JAN

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY /FOR MONTH OF JAN:

15,426 CONTRACTS (FOR 16 TRADING DAY(S) TOTAL 15,426 CONTRACTS) OR 77.130 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 964 CONTRACTS OR 4.820 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF JAN: 77.13 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON.

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF JAN: 77.13 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2021 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          77.13 MILLION OZ.

JAN EFP ACCUMULATION SO FAR:  77.13 MILLION OZ   (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

RESULT: WE HAD A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 440, WITH OUR TINY $0.05 FALL IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ///MONDAY.THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A WEAK SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 178 CONTRACTS WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS.

TODAY WE LOST A SMALL SIZED 262 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES (WITH OUR $0.05 FALL IN PRICE)//

THE TALLY//EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

i.e 178 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH A TINY SIZED DECREASE OF 440 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND HAPPENED WITH OUR $0.05 RISE IN PRICE OF SILVER/AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $25.43 // MONDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY. 

FOR THE NEW JANUARY  DELIVERY MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 6 NOTICE(S) FOR 30,000 OZ OF SILVER.

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018. AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.70//TODAY’S RECORD OF 244,705 WAS SET WITH A PRICE OF: 18.91 (FEB 25/2020)

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 

GOLD

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A SMALL 954 CONTRACTS TO 551,108 AND CLOSER TO OUR NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE SMALL SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI OCCURRED WITH OUR VERY SMALL LOSS IN PRICE  OF $0.20 /// COMEX GOLD TRADING// MONDAY. WE PROBABLY HAD SOME BANKER/ALGO SHORT COVERING  ACCOMPANYING OUR SMALL EXCHANGE FOR  PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. WE  HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AND A STRONG INCREASE IN GOLD OUNCES STANDING AT THE COMEX….THIS ALL HAPPENED WITH OUR TINY FALL IN PRICE OF $0.20. 

WE HAD A VOLUME OF 0    4 -GC CONTRACTS//OPEN INTEREST  0//

WE HAD A FAIR GAIN OF 3580 CONTRACTS  (11.13 TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A SMALL SIZED 2626 CONTRACTS:

CONTRACT . FEB: 2205,  APRIL:  421  ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO//TOTAL: 2626.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 551,108. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EXCHANGE DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 3580 CONTRACTS: 954 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 2626 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 3580 CONTRACTS OR 11.13 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:

WE HAD A SMALL SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (2626) ACCOMPANYING THE SMALL SIZE GAIN IN COMEX OI  (954 OI): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES:  3580 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1 ) CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING AND CONSIDERABLE ALGO SHORT COVERING ,2.)A STRONG STANDING// GOOD INCREASE AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR THE FRONT JAN. MONTH TO 6.348 TONNES3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION ;4) SMALL COMEX OI GAIN AND 5) SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL  ...ALL OF THIS WAS COUPLED WITH OUR LOSS IN GOLD PRICE TRADING//MONDAY//$0.20.

WE ARE BEGINNING TO WITNESS A LACK OF EXCHANGE FOR GOLD PHYSICALS UNDERWRITTEN DUE TO PREMIUMS STARTING TO REAPPEAR IN THE FUTURE PRICE OF GOLD VS LONDON SPOT. THE COST TO THE BANKERS IS JUST TOO GREAT TO ENGAGE IN THESE VEHICLES ONCE THIS OCCURS.

We have now switched to GOLD for our spreaders!!

 

FOR DETAILS ON THE SPREADING EXERCISE HERE IS A BRIEF OUTLINE:

 

SPREADING OPERATIONS/NOW SWITCHING TO SILVER  (WE SWITCH OVER TO GOLD ON NOV  1)

SPREADING OPERATION FOR OUR NEWCOMERS:

FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS:

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED IN GOLD  AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF FEB.

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEW, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE SPREADERS AND THE CRIMINAL ELEMENT BEHIND IT:

 HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

 

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR SILVER..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR SILVER.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

.

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO GOLD AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT. HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB FOR GOLD:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF JAN. BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN GOLD WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (FEB), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

 
 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2020 INCLUDING TODAY

JAN

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JAN : 74568, CONTRACTS OR 7,456,800 oz OR 231.93 TONNES (16 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 4661 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 16 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 231.93 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2019, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 231.93/3550 x 100% TONNES =6.530% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO DATE: JANUARY: 231.93 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, FALL BY A SMALL SIZED 487 CONTRACTS FROM 168,235 DOWN TO 167,748 AND FURTHER FROM OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 3/4 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

THE SMALL SIZED LOSS IN OI SILVER COMEX WAS PRIMARILY DUE TO;  1)   SOME BANKER SHORT COVERING//ALGO SHORT COVERING , 2) A WEAK ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (SEE BELOW), 3) A GOOD INCREASE IN STANDING  FOR SILVER AT THE COMEX FOR JAN., AND 4) MINOR LONG LIQUIDATION 

EFP ISSUANCE 178 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 MARCH:  178  ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 178 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI LOSS OF 440 CONTRACTS TO THE 178 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A SMALL SIZED LOSS OF 409 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 2.045 MILLION  OZ, OCCURRED WITH OUR $0.05 FALL IN PRICE///

 

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL..THE EVIDENCE IS CLEAR: HUGE AMOUNTS OF PHYSICAL STANDING FOR BOTH  SILVER AND GOLD .

 

(report Harvey)

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)TUESDAY MORNING/ MONDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN54.81 PTS OR 1.51%   //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 767.75 PTS OR 2.55%    /The Nikkei closed DOWN 276.11 POINTS OR 0.96%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.46%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP AT 6.4677 /Oil UP TO 53.15 dollars per barrel for WTI and 56.29 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.4677. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.4760 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS //TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED//CORONAVIRUS/PANDEMIC/TRUMP TESTS POSITIVE FOR COVID 19  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 
 

COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST  ROSE BY BY A SMALL 954 CONTRACTS TO 551,108 MOVING CLOSER TO RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020).  AND THIS COMEX INCREASE OCCURRED WITH OUR TINY FALL OF $0.20 IN GOLD PRICING /MONDAY’S COMEX TRADING/). WE ALSO HAD A SMALL EFP ISSUANCE (2626 CONTRACTS).   WE  ALSO PROBABLY HAD  1)  CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING,  2)   ZERO  LONG LIQUIDATION  AND 3)  STRONG INCREASE IN GOLD STANDING AT THE  COMEX//JAN. DELIVERY MONTH(6.348 TONNES) (SEE BELOW) …  AS WE ENGINEERED A FAIR SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 4156 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE LATELY WITNESSED THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL….. AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS.

(SEE BELOW)

WE  HAD 0    4 -GC VOLUME//open interest REMAINS AT 0

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JAN..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A TINY SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 2626 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:   JAN: ; FEB// ’21 2205 AND APRIL:  421  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2626  CONTRACTS.

YOU WILL FIND THAT WHEN WE HAVE A GOOD PREMIUM IN THE FUTURES/SPOT, THEN THE NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS DECLINE IN NUMBERS.  THE COST IS JUST TOO MUCH FOR THEM TO ISSUE. TODAY THAT PREMIUM WAS SMALL AND THUS A LITTLE MORE THAN USUAL OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WERE ISSUED.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A SMALL 3580 TOTAL CONTRACTS  IN THAT 2626 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A SMALL SIZED 954 COMEX CONTRACTS.. WE HAVE A STRONG LEVEL OF JAN 2021 GOLD CONTRACTS STANDING FOR DELIVERY. ((6.348 TONNES).  IF YOU INCLUDE  NOVEMBER’S HUGE 34.7 TONNES, AND DEC. 93.589 OUR COMEX IS OFFICIALLY UNDER ASSAULT.

THE BANKERS WERSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT FELL $0.20)., BUT WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING ANY LONGS  AS THE TOTAL GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES REGISTERED  11.13 TONNES, ACCOMPANYING OUR STRONG GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR JAN (6.348 TONNES)

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES :: 4156 CONTRACTS OR  415600 OZ OR  12.926  TONNES

 
 
COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT COMMODITY FUTURES OPEN INTEREST SHOULD APPROXIMATE 3% OF TOTAL PRODUCTION.  IN GOLD THE WORLD PRODUCES AROUND 3500 TONNES PER YEAR BUT ONLY 2200 TONNES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE WEST (THUS EXCLUDING RUSSIA, CHINA ETC..WHO KEEP 100% OF THEIR PRODUCTION)

 

THUS IN GOLD WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:  551,108 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS X 100 OZ PER CONTRACT = 55.11 MILLION OZ/32,150 OZ PER TONNE =  1713 TONNES

THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST REPRESENTS 1713/2200 OR 77.90% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF GOLD.

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 245,634 contracts// volume poor/

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  311,230 contracts//  volume: POOR //most of our traders have left for London

 

JAN 26 /2020

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
 
4,858.225 OZ
hsbc
manfra
 
includes 100 kilobars
Manfra
 
 
 
 
 
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz NIL oz

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz
NIL
OZ
HSBC
 
 
 
No of oz served (contracts) today
19 notice(s)
 
 1900 OZ
(0.0590 TONNES)
 
 
 
 
No of oz to be served (notices)
11 contracts
(1100 oz)
0.0342 TONNES
 
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
2008 notices
 
200,800 OZ
6.2457 TONNES
 
 
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz
 

Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz

We had 0 deposits into the dealer

into Brinks dealer: nil oz
 
 
 
total deposit: nil   oz
 
 
 

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

 

we had  0 deposits into the customer account

Total customer deposits: ZERO
 
 

we had  2 gold withdrawals from the customer account:

i) Out of HSBC:  1643.125 oz 
ii) Out of Manfra: 3215.000 oz (100 kilobars

We had 1  kilobar transactions

ADJUSTMENTS:  none

 

The front month of JAN registered a total of 38 contracts for a GAIN of  18. We had  3 notices filed on Monday so we GAINED 21 contracts or AN ADDITIONAL 2100 oz will stand for delivery in the non active delivery month of January.  LONGS refused to  morph into a London based forward as they will try their luck searching for metal on this side of the pond. This is a strong queue jump

FEBRUARY LOST 26,110 contracts DOWN TO  126,823 CONTRACTS.

MARCH GAINED 303 contracts to stand at 1827

APRIL added 24,7002 contracts to stand at 331,740

We had  2 notice(s) filed today for  200 oz

FOR THE JAN 2020 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and  0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 19  contract(s) of which 0  notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 14 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notices received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)
 

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JAN /2021. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (2029) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  (JAN 30 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today (19 x 100 oz per contract) equals 204,100 OZ OR 6.348 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this NON active month of JAN

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JAN/2021 contract month:

No of notices filed so far (2029 x 100 oz  PLUS (30 OI) for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (19} x 100 oz which equals 204,100 oz standing OR 6.3480 TONNES in this non  active delivery month of January. This is a STRONG amount  standing for GOLD IN  JAN  (generally one of the weakest of all delivery months of the year). 

We gained 21 contracts or a queue jump of 2100 oz of gold. These longs refused to morph into London based forwards.

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:  BRINKS

461,317.475 oz NOW PLEDGED  SEPT 15.2020/HSBC  14.34 TONNES

84,274.333 PLEDGED  APRIL 3/2020: SCOTIA:2.148 TONNES

290,795.495 oz  JPM  9.04 TONNES

1,014,918.830 oz pledged June 12/2020 Brinks/30.198 TONNES

94,500.934 oz Pledged August 21/regular account 2.93 tonnes JPMORGAN

180,158,329 oz Pledged Nov 27.2021 MANFRA  5.60 TONNES

6,308.08 oz International Delaware:  .196 tonnes

192.06 oz Malca

total pledged gold:  2,132,466.372 oz                                     66.32 tonnes

 

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES…. WE HAVE 528.29 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS i.e. 6.348 tonnes

CALCULATION OF REGISTERED THAT CAN BE SETTLED UPON:

 
total registered or dealer  19,117,260.034 oz or 594.62 tonnes
 
 
total weight of pledged:  2,132,466.37 oz or 66.32 tonnes
 
 
thus:
 
registered gold that can be used to settle upon: 16,984,794.0  (528,29 tonnes)
 
 
 
true registered gold  (total registered – pledged tonnes  16,984,794.0 (528.29 tonnes)
 
 
 
total eligible gold: 19,600,006.962 , oz (609.64 tonnes)
 
 

total registered, pledged  and eligible (customer) gold  38,717,267.296 oz 1,204.26 tonnes (INCLUDES 4 GC GOLD)

total 4 GC gold:   126.34 tonnes

total gold net of 4 GC:  1077.92 tonnes

end

I have compiled  data with respect to registered (or dealer) gold taken on first day notice for each of the past 24 months

The data begins on first day notice for the May month taken on the last day of July 2018. and it continues to present day.

I then took, how many deliveries were recorded by the CME for each and every month.  I also included for reference the price of gold on first day notice.

The first graph is a logarithmic  graph and the second graph, linear.

You can see the huge explosion of registered gold at the comex along with deliveries.

 
 
THE DATA AND GRAPHS:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
END

 

 
 
JAN 26/2020

And now for the wild silver comex results

 
 

And now for the wild silver comex results

INITIAL STANDINGS

JAN. SILVER COMEX CONTRACT MONTH//INITIAL STANDING

Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
28,002.710 oz
 
 
 
CNT
 
 
 
 
 
 
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz
 
 
 
 
 
 
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
 
4838.400
 
CNT
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
No of oz served today (contracts)
2
 
CONTRACT(S)
(10,000 OZ)
 
No of oz to be served (notices)
0 contracts
 NIL oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  1285 contracts

 

6,425,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
 
We had 0 deposits into the dealer:
 
 
 
 

total dealer deposits: nil        oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had 1 deposit into the customer account (ELIGIBLE ACCOUNT)

I Into CNT:  4838.400 oz CNT
 
 
 

JPMorgan now has 193.906 million oz of  total silver inventory or 48.63% of all official comex silver. (193.906 million/398.736 million

total customer deposits today: 4838.400    oz

we had 0 withdrawals:

 
 
 
 

total withdrawals:  oz

We had 4 adjustments:   DEALER to Customer

brinks:  51,203.190 oz
CNT: 672,965.795 oz
Int Del: 138,111.817 oz
Manfra: 55,435.310
 

Total dealer(registered) silver: 149.509million oz

total registered and eligible silver:  398.736 million oz

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Jan saw a GAIN of 2 contracts  UP to 6 contracts. We had 2 notices filed on MONDAY so we GAINED 4 contracts or 20,000 oz will stand in this non active delivery month of January.  They REFUSED TO morph into London based forwards and as such NEGATED a fiat bonus.
 
 

FEBRUARY saw another GAIN of 21 contracts to stand at 1086.  MARCH LOST 940 contracts DOWN to 129,719.

The total number of notices filed today for JAN 2021. contract month is represented by 2 contract(s) FOR 10,000 oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JAN we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at  1285 x 5,000 oz = 6,425,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JAN (6) and the number of notices served upon today 6 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the JAN standings for silver for the JAN/2021 contract month: 1285 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of JAN( 6)- number of notices served upon today (6) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the NOV contract month .equals 6,425,000 oz. ..VERY STRONG FOR A NON ACTIVE  JAN MONTH.

WE GAINED 4  CONTRACTS OR  20,000 ADDITIONAL OZ WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY OVER HERE.

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME :53,469 CONTRACTS // volume  rather slow//

FOR YESTERDAY  77,562  ,CONFIRMED VOLUME// slower than normal/

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 97,254 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 0.486 billion  OZ 69.4% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV  FALLS TO- 3.47% ((JAN 26/2021)

2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV  FALLS TO -1.97% to NAV:   (JAN 26/2021 )

Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/3.47%(JAN 26/2021)

(courtesy Sprott/GATA

3. SPROTT CEF .A   FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 19.37 TRADING 18.49///NEGATIVE 4.55

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

JAN 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.15 TODAY:NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1173.25 TONNES

JAN 25.WITH GOLD DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1173.25 TONNES

JAN 22/WITH GOLD DOWN (9.50 TODAY:A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A WITHDRAWAL OF .88 TONNES FROM THE GLD//NVENTORY RESTS AT 1173.25 TONNES

JAN 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.40 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1174.13 TONNES

JAN 20/WITH GOLD UP $25.20 TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.5 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1174.13 TONNES

JAN 19/WITH GOLD UP $10.90 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 16.63 TONNES INTO GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1177.63 TONNES

JAN 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $22.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//: A WITHDRAWAL OF 10.21 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1161.00 TONNES

JAN 14.WITH GOLD DOWN $2.75 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 10.50 TONNES FROM THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1171.21 TONNES

JAN 13/WITH GOLD UP $11.65 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1181.71 TONNES

JAN 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.70  TODAY;A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD// A WITHDRAWAL OF .400 TONNES FROM THE GLD..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1181.71 TONNES

JAN 11/WITH GOLD UP $14.30 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1182.11 TONNES

JAN 8//WITH GOLD DOWN $75.70 : A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.57 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1182.11 TONNES

JAN 7/WITH GOLD UP $5.70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1186.78 TONNES

JAN 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $44.25 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1186.78 TONNES

JAN 5/WITH GOLD UP $10.05 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 17.21 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1187.95 TONNES

JAN 4/WITH GOLD UP $49.70 TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD; A DEPOSIT OF 0.88 TONNES INTO THE GLD/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1170.74 TONNES

DEC 31/WITH GOLD UP $1.45 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1169.86 TONNES

DEC//30//WITH GOLD UP $13.30 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1169.86 TONNES

DEC.29//WITH GOLD UP $1.65 TODAY: A DEPOSIT OF  2.53 TONNES  CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1169.86 TONNES.

DEC 28WITH GOLD DOWN $3.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1167.53 TONNES

DEC 24/WITH GOLD UP $6.15 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1167.53 TONNES

DEC.23/WITH GOLD UP $7.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.33 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1167.53 TONNES

DEC 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPSOIT OF 2.04 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1169.86 TONNES

DEC 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.60 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1167.82 TONNES

DEC 18/WITH GOLD DOWN 90 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1167.82 TONNES

DEC 17 WITH GOLD UP $39.35 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.33 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1167.82 TONNES

DEC 16/WITH GOLD UP $2.55 TODAY A HUGE  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES FORM THE GLD..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1170.15 TONNES

DEC 15/ WITH GOLD UP $23.75 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.67 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1171.32 TONNES//

DEC 14//WITH GOLD DOWN $10.45 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.79 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1175.99 TONNES

DEC 11/WITH GOLD UP $5.70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1179.78 TONNES

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Inventory rests tonight at:

 

JAN  26 / GLD INVENTORY 1173.25 tonnes

LAST;  986 TRADING DAYS:   +238.48 TONNES HAVE BEEN ADDED THE GLD

LAST 886 TRADING DAYS// +407.11  TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY

end

Now the SLV Inventory/

JAN 26/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 576.299 MILLION OZ///

JAN 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 2.044 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// INVENTORY RESTS AT 576.299 MILLION OZ./.

JAN 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 31 CENTS CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 574.299 MILLION OZ///

JAN 21/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 574.299 MILLION OZ//

JAN 20/WITH SILVER UP 46 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A DEPOSIT OF 697,000 OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 574.299 MILLION OZ//

JAN 19/WITH SILVER UP 40 CENTS TODAY: TWO HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A A)WITHDRAWAL OF 929,000 OZ FROM THE SLV AND B) A HUGE DEPOSIT 19.997 MILLION  OZ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 573.602 MILLION OZ

JAN 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 84 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.725 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 554.554 MILLION OZ/

JAN 14.WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.392 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV//INVENTORY AT 556.319 MILLION OZ//

JAN 13/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 557.713 MILLION OZ//

JAN 12/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: 2 WITHDRAWALS OF 2.788 MILLION OZ AND 1.998 MILLION FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 557.713 MILLION OZ//

JAN 11/WITH SILVER UP 68 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 562.499 MILLION OZ//

JAN 8/WITH SILVER DOWN $2.57 TODAY; NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV..INVENTORY RESTS AT 562.499 MILLION OZ//

JAN 7/WITH SILVER UP 26 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 392,000 OZ FROM SLV INVENTORY///INVENTORY RESTS AT 562.499 MILLION OZ/

JAN 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 54 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 4.156 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 562.871 MILLION OZ//

JAN 5/WITH SILVER 33 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 558.715 MILLION OZ///

JAN 4/WITH SILVER UP 89 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE  CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.672 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV../INVENTORY RESTS AT 558.715 MILLION OZ//

DEC 31//WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 557.043 MILLION OZ

DEC 30/WITH SILVER UP 29 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 557.043 MILLION OZ//./

DEC 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 22 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 2.138 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 557.089 MILLION OZ

DEC 28/WITH SILVER UP 57 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/:

////INVENTORY RESTS AT 554.951 MILLION OZ//

DEC 24/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.51 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 554.951 MILLION OZ//

DEC 23/WITH SILVER UP 33 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 557.461 MILLION OZ//

DEC 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 74 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.INVENTORY RESTS AT 557.461 MILLION OZ/

DEC 21/WITH SILVER UP 30 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: ADEPOSIT OF 3.253 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 557.461 MILLION OZ/

DEC 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 6.228 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 554.208MILLION OZ

DEC 17//WITH SILVER UP $1.06 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 547.98 MILLION OZ//

DEC 16/WITH SILVER UP 42 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 547.98 MILLION OZ//

DEC 15/WITH SILVER UP 55 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 547.98 MILLION OZ//

DEC 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS  TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 547.98 MILLION OZ//

DEC 11/WITH SILVER UP 1 CENT TODAY: TWO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.859 MILLION OZ IN THE MORNING AND A LATE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.394 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 547.98- MILLION OZ..

JAN 26.2021:

SLV INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT  576.343 MILLION OZ

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

Always pay attach to Stephen Roach:  he claims the dollar’s crash is just beginning.  We are in the third inning of a 9 inning ball game

(Stephen Roach/Bloomberg//GATA)

Stephen Roach: The dollar’s crash is only just beginning

 
 Section: 

 

By Stephen Roach
Bloomberg News
Monday, January 25, 2021

After an initial spike higher, the dollar has been falling steadily since the Covid-19 pandemic took hold in the U.S. last March. It is down about 10 to 12% relative to America’s major trading partners, dropping to its weakest levels since early 2018 as measured by several of the broad dollar indexes. There is more to come.

Based on a wildly unpopular forecast that I made in June of a 35% decline in the value of the dollar by the end of 2021, we are only in the third inning of a nine-inning baseball game. If that forecast comes to pass, it will provide an important exclamation point on the first year in office for America’s 46th president, Joe Biden.

There were three main reasons why I argued the dollar would fall: 1) a sharp widening in the U.S. current-account deficit, 2) the rise of the euro, and 3) a Federal Reserve that would do little in response to any weakness in the greenback. On each of these counts I have greater conviction on the weak-dollar call today than I did six months ago. Consider the following: …

… For the remainder of the analysis:

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-01-25/the-dollar-s-crash…

END

Brian Lundin:  Paper gold longs vs paper gold shorts

(Brian Lundin/Gold Letter/GATA)

Brien Lundin: How manipulated is the gold market?

 
 Section: 

 

By Brien Lundin
Gold Newsletter, Metairie, Louisiana
Monday, January 25, 2021

Last week I wrote about an amazing development in the gold market: The price was smashed down at the beginning of New York trading, as usual, but it then rallied strongly as investors around the world rushed in to buy.

We were well on our way to a duplicate performance this morning, until the rally was smacked right back down.

Right now it’s a hard-fought battle between the bulls and bears, with the gold price right about even for the day.

But what I’m writing about today has to do with a comment I received after sending last week’s issue. To set the stage, here’s what I wrote last week about the uncanny pattern of early-morning gold selloffs:

“You know that I’m not a big conspiracy bug and I don’t believe there’s an official, organized cabal acting against gold on a daily basis. (My beliefs tend more toward unorganized cabals of convenience acting intermittently — but that’s a story for another day.)

“All this said, for gold to get repeatedly taken to the woodshed at virtually the same trading moment. … As Joe Biden would say, ‘C’mon, man!’ At this point it’s undeniable that ‘they’ are trying to keep gold down.”

My admission of a belief in some form of manipulation in gold wasn’t enough for my good friends at GATA (the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee), in particular Secretary-Treasurer Chris Powell, who has done more than anyone else in advocating for a free gold market since the group’s founding in 1998. …

… For the remainder of the analysis:

https://goldnewsletter.com/go012521/

END

 

iii) Other physical stories:

 

 

Your early TUESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED UP AT 6.4677 /

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.4760   /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 54.81 PTS OR 1.51%

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 767.75 PTS OR 2.55%

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 276.11 POINTS OR 0.96%

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL GREEN/

USA dollar index DOWN TO 90.31/Euro RISES TO 1.2146

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: RISES TO. +.03/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 103.73/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 53.15 and Brent: 56.29

3f Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE CLOSED UP/OFF- SHORE: UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO -.53%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 0.65% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.07%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.18: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO : 0.70

3k Gold at $1853.35 silver at: 25.38   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 31/100 in roubles/dollar) 75.07

3m oil into the 53 dollar handle for WTI and 56 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 103.73 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .8883 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0790 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to 0.53%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 1.050% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 1.807%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 7.34..

S&P Futures Reverse Losses, Trade Near Record High Despite China Bubble Warning

 
TUESDAY, JAN 26, 2021 – 8:02

After sliding for much of the Asian session, US equity futures reversed sharply and rose alongside European stocks, rising as much as 30 points from session lows and last trading fractionally in the green…

… while yesterday’s main attraction, Gamestop, was up almost 20% in the premarket as reddit traders now appear to be going after Ken Griffin and Steven Cohen, who backstopped the effectively collapsed Melvin Capital.

Elsewhere, General Electric Co rose about 5% after reporting a better-than-expected free cash flow for the fourth quarter, as it benefits from a recovery at its power and renewable energy units. Tech heavyweights Microsoft Corp and Advanced Micro Devices Inc were slightly higher ahead of their earnings reports expected after markets close. With the S&P 500 trading at 22 times the 12-month forward earnings, concerns about stock bubbles among some of Wall Street’s biggest banks sparking fears of a pullback. After a “buy everything” rally over several months supported by money-printing pandemic stimulus packages, near-zero interest rates and the start of COVID-19 vaccination programmes, some investors are worried markets may be near ‘bubble’ territory. They point to rocketing prices of assets such as bitcoin or, on Monday, the soaring stock of short-squeezed videogame retailer Gamestop.

MSCI’s All Country World index was flat, while MSCI’s emerging market stock index was 1.6% lower.

After starting in the red, European stock markets were almost uniformly green. Naturgy Energy Group SA soared 16% as asset manager IFM Global Infrastructure offered to buy a stake in the Spanish utility. Sweden’s EQT AB, one of Europe’s biggest private equity firms, jumped 14% after agreeing to take over Exeter Property Group in a $1.9 billion deal.

In contrast, Asian markets slumped as China’s central bank withdrew cash from the banking system and an official cautioned about asset bubbles. The MSCI Asia Pac index dropped 1.4%, its biggest drop in two months and internet giant Tencent Holdings Ltd. lost 6.3% as investors paused following rallies in Hong Kong and South Korea. U.S. Senate Majority leader Chuck Schumer’s expectation of timing for approval of a new aid package also weighted on sentiment. Vietnam was Asia’s worst-performing market as stocks continued to face profit-taking pressures. Hong Kong’s stock benchmark was dragged by Tencent, which slumped after an 11% gain on Monday. China’s unexpected withdrawal of funds from the financial system amid a warning about asset bubbles also weighed on sentiment, with indexes in Shanghai and Shenzhen sliding while Chinese 10-year bond futures dropped. Local media reports on Tuesday cited comments from Ma Jun, an adviser to the People’s Bank of China, telling a wealth management forum that the risk of asset bubbles would increase if the central bank did not adjust its policy.

“Whether this situation will intensify in the future depends on whether monetary policy is appropriately changed this year,” Jun said. He added that if not, such problems would “certainly continue” and lead to “greater economic and financial risks in the medium- and long-term”.

Samsung Electronics and Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing also weighed on the regional equity benchmark as investors pocket profits from recent gains. South Korea’s benchmark index fell 2.1% from a record close as foreign investors increased their selling. The Philippines’ equity gauge declined to a two-month low after President Rodrigo Duterte reversed a decision that would have allowed more children to go outdoors amid fears over the spread of a new coronavirus strain. Australia and India markets are shut for holidays.

Japanese stocks fell with losses deepening during the afternoon session amid concerns recent gains may have been excessive. Automakers and services providers were the heaviest drags on the Topix. Toyota Motor was the biggest contributor to Topix decline and among the biggest drags on the MSCI Asia Pacific Index, even after Nikkei reported the automaker sees a limited impact from a semiconductor shortage. Fast Retailing and M3 weighed most on the Nikkei 225 Stock Average. Today’s losses pared monthly gains to 2.4% for the Topix and 4% for the Nikkei 225. “Investors are wary of the current Japanese stock levels,” said Hajime Sakai, the chief fund manager at Mito Securities Co. That being said, “I don’t think it’s difficult for the Nikkei 225 to try breaching the 29,000 level.”

On one hand, so far “the earnings season up to now has been very good, so it comes back to the fact the market has been overbought and had a strong rally since Jan. 1, with a lot of positive news priced in,” said Francois Savary, chief investment officer at Swiss wealth manager Prime Partners, referring to recent losses. “There is room for some consolidation.”

That said, not everyone is convinced: “We suspect earnings may not be able to catch up with what people expect this year,” said Jacob Doo, chief investment officer at Envysion Wealth Management, citing the lockdowns in Europe and the slow roll out of vaccines in the United States. “Within the tech space, we are cautious on FANGS now, simply because there could be anti-trust laws that Biden would implement,” he added.

On the other, as Bloomberg adds adding to the backdrop of market worries was more negative news about the pandemic. Vaccine coverage won’t reach a point that would stop transmission of the virus in the foreseeable future, the World Health Organization said. German Chancellor Angela Merkel told party colleagues the potential threat from faster-spreading variants means the country is “sitting on a powder keg,” according to Bild newspaper.

“There are some negative news on lockdowns, new virus variants, and questions about vaccine efficacy,” said Mark Nash, head of fixed-income alternatives at Jupiter Asset Management. “That’s not a good combination for markets expecting a perfect world.”

In rates, Treasury futures dropped to lows of the day into start of U.S. session as President Joe Biden said he’s open to negotiating his $1.9 trillion Covid-19 relief proposal and erasing Asia-session gains that were aided by block buyer in 10-year note and bond futures. Treasury 10-year yields around 1.05%, underperforming gilts and bunds by ~0.5bp and steepening 2s10s by ~1bp; yields were higher by less than 2bp across intermediates and long-end of the curve ahead of 5-year note auction. Jumbo 7-Eleven bond offering is expected as soon as Tuesday. The auction cycle resumes with a $61BN 5-year sale at 1pm ET, following strong demand for Monday’s 2-year; cycle concludes Thursday with $62b 7-year; all sales biggest ever at tenor.

Germany’s 10-year bond yield fell a basis point to a two-week low of -0.561%, while Italian 10-year yields were up slightly on the day at 0.655%. Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte will resign on Tuesday, his office said, hoping President Sergio Mattarella will then give him a mandate to form a new government.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose and the greenback strengthened against most of its Group-of-10 peers, even as most crosses recovered from session lows as European stock markets advanced from the open. The yen and the Swiss franc were little changed against the dollar, but climbed against most major currencies on haven demand; the euro remained down after weakening toward $1.21. Scandinavian currencies and the Australian dollar led declines among G-10 peers.

In commodities, after rising nearly 1% on Monday, Brent crude fell 0.5% to $55.60 per barrel and U.S. crude lost 0.5% to $52.51. Spot gold fell 0.2% to $1,852.30 per ounce.

Looking at the the day ahead, and there are an array of earnings releases, including Microsoft, Johnson & Johnson, Verizon Communications, NextEra Energy, Texas Instruments, Starbucks, American Express, General Electric and Lockheed Martin. Data releases include UK employment data for November and the US FHFA house price index for November. From the US there’ll also be the January readings of the Conference Board’s consumer confidence indicator and the Richmond Fed’s manufacturing index. Finally, the ECB’s Centeno will be speaking, and the IMF will be releasing their World Economic Outlook Update.

Investors are also looking ahead to the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday.

“We expect the January FOMC to repeat and reinforce the Fed’s existing dovishness, which is still significant given the recent taper discussions and other central banks’ considerations to adapt policy,” CitiFX strategist Ebrahim Rahbari said in a note.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.1% to 3,853.25
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.8% to 408.52
  • MXAP down 1.4% to 212.24
  • MXAPJ down 1.7% to 715.92
  • Nikkei down 1% to 28,546.18
  • Topix down 0.8% to 1,848.00
  • Hang Seng Index down 2.6% to 29,391.26
  • Shanghai Composite down 1.5% to 3,569.43
  • Sensex down 1.1% to 48,347.59
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.4% to 6,824.71
  • Kospi down 2.1% to 3,140.31
  • German 10Y yield rose 1.2 bps to -0.538%
  • Euro down 0.07% to $1.2130
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 7.2 bps to 0.567%
  • Spanish 10Y yield unchanged at 0.074%
  • Brent futures up 0.3% to $56.04/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.2% to $1,852.66
  • U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 90.44

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell heads into what could be his last year atop the central bank determined not to repeat the mistake he made when he was a neophyte monetary policy maker seven years ago when he was among those leading the charge to scale back the central bank’s quantitative-easing program — a stance that led to the economically debilitating and market- wrenching taper tantrum of 2013
  • Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte will resign on Tuesday morning to avoid a damaging defeat in the Senate and maneuver for a return at the head of a new government
  • Europe’s primary bond market is set for a record month for public-sector deals, after the European Union extended a Covid-stoked flood of government and agency issuance
  • Chancellor Angela Merkel told party colleagues that Germany’s management of the coronavirus pandemic has “slipped out of control” and stricter curbs are needed to prevent a new wave of the disease, Bild newspaper reported
  • Germany’s health ministry says can’t confirm a report in Handelsblatt newspaper that AstraZeneca’s Covid-19 vaccine is only effective for 8% of people older than 65
  • Chancellor Angela Merkel’s chief of staff proposed temporarily adjusting constitutional rules to allow expanded new borrowing by Germany’s federal government, prompting a swift rejection from his own party’s budget spokesman
  • Boris Johnson is expected to announce the government’s plan for quarantining travelers arriving in the U.K. to stop the spread of new coronavirus strains from overseas
  • An aggregate index of China’s economic performance increased by one step from last month, led by strong performances in exports, property and the stock market

A quick look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asian equity markets declined across the board with sentiment subdued after the flimsy risk appetite amongst global peers including in the US where stocks whipsawed ahead of this week’s FOMC, tech earnings and month-end, as well as ongoing concerns about vaccine effectiveness against the new COVID-19 variants and doubts on the ability of Democrats to pass the USD 1.9tln COVID-19 relief plan in its entirety, while the absence of participants in Australia and India due to holiday closures also contributed to the lacklustre picture. Nikkei 225 (-1.0%) was negative with the index subdued by recent currency inflows. KOSPI (-2.1%) underperformed despite better-than-expected South Korean GDP growth figures for Q4, as this still resulted in a 1.0% annual contraction for 2020 which was the economy’s worst performance since 1998. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (-2.6%) and Shanghai Comp. (-1.5%) declined with the mainland pressured after the PBoC resumed its tepid liquidity operations which facilitated increases in China’s benchmark overnight repo rate to its highest since November 2019 and with MSCI to delete several securities from its indexes including China National Nuclear Power Co., China Shipbuilding Industry and Inspur International. The losses in Hong Kong were also exacerbated by profit taking in the city’s main index which retreated from the 30k level and near 21-month highs as Tencent shares also pulled back from record levels after it recently approached USD 1tln market cap status. Finally, 10yr JGBs tested the 152.00 level to the upside with prices underpinned by the negative mood across stocks and following the bull flattening in USTs which was helped by a solid 2yr auction, while the 40yr JGB auction results were mixed with a slightly higher b/c.

Top Asian News

  • Asia Stocks Slip as Stimulus Timing, China Bubble Warning Weigh
  • From Pony Ma to Jack Ma, the Rich Win Big With Wild H.K. Stocks
  • Ant IPO Could Resume Once Issues Resolved, Central Bank Says
  • Kuaishou to Give Asian IPOs Best Start to a Year Since 2010

European stocks kicked of Tuesday’s session indecisive before gaining upward momentum (Euro Stoxx 50 +1.1%) after sentiment improved from the mostly downbeat APAC trade, albeit US equity futures remain subdued vs their trans-Atlantic counterparts with broad-based losses seen across the four major contracts – which are also weighed on by doubts on whether the Democrats can swiftly pass its much-anticipated relief plan. Back to Europe, the region’s performance is relatively broad-based, with Switzerland’s SMI (+0.5%) initially the laggard amid underperformance in the defensive Healthcare sector post-Novartis’ earnings (see below). Italy’s FTSE MIB (+0.8%) conforms to the gains among its peers following the outperformance seen yesterday as markets somewhat look through reports that Italian PM Conte has announced his resignation to his cabinet, in a move described as a “tactical resignation”. This resignation is merely symbolic amid the unguaranteed hope is that Conte will be able to secure a mandate to form a new government. The tail risk after resides on the whether Conte has the ability to form a new coalition – thus markets will be giving more credence to developments on this front in the upcoming sessions; full analysis piece available on the headline feed. Delving deeper into the European sectors, IT is one of the top gainers in the run-up to large-cap US tech earnings, meanwhile, Nokia (+4%) soared at the open as the Reddit WSB retail traders attempted to pump higher Nokia’s ADR – which rose 15.5% in US trade followed by another 7% after-market, in a similar move to the GameStop (+15% pre-mkt) phenomenon yesterday. On this theme, it will be important to keep an eye on any regulatory moves against this type of speculative trading as any attempt to regulate channels – such as Reddit and/or Twitter – may hinder retail speculative buying which acted as and continues be a major equity driving force. Travel & Leisure resides as the laggard as ongoing COVID-variant woes provides the sector with no reprieve. In terms of individual movers, Rolls-Royce (-4.5%) shares slid at the open after a trading update which brought to light the turbulence ahead for the aeronautical sector “In the near-term, more contagious variants of the virus are creating additional uncertainty. Enhanced restrictions are delaying the recovery of long-haul travel over the coming months compared to prior expectations, placing further financial pressure on customers and the wider aviation industry, all of which are impacting cash flows in 2021” – the company said despite reporting in-line trading and year-end liquidity at the upper end of guidance. On the flip side, AstraZeneca (+1.2%) refuted Handelsblatt and Bild reports which suggested the Co’s vaccine had an efficacy of 8% or less than 10%, respectively, in those over 65. Elsewhere, some large-cap earnings related movers include UBS (+1.5%) and Novartis (-2.2%), with the former firmer following an overall positive update and a share buyback announcement, whilst the latter is pressured on a miss in revenue and EPS.

Top European News

  • EU Vaccine Rollout in Disarray as Germany Touts Export Limits
  • Dutch Covid Riots Add to Political Tension Ahead of Elections
  • Engie Said to Work With Citi, Morgan Stanley on GTT Divestment
  • EQT Soars to Record Valuation After $1.9 Billion Property Deal

In FX, The Dollar looked all set to test technical resistance in DXY terms amidst another bout of safe haven demand that propelled the index further beyond 90.500 to 90.614, but fell just short of the 50 DMA at 90.678 as sentiment gradually stabilised and is improving to the extent that stocks are now on course for an emphatic turnaround Tuesday. Hence, the Buck has faded across the board to the benefit or relief of rival currencies that seemed destined to suffer heavier losses and breach chart supports or psychological levels along the way. However, the DXY is holding off lows (90.315) and within sight of the half round number in the run up to a busier US agenda on FOMC day 1.

  • NZD/AUD – Kiwi outperformance continues ahead of tonight’s NZ business PSI and trade data on Wednesday with additional traction to complement less dovish RBNZ expectations coming from PM Arden confirming that the country will sign an upgraded FTA with China. Nzd/Usd is back up near 0.7200 after testing the 10 DMA that aligns with a double bottom around 0.7171, while Aud/Nzd has now crossed 1.0700 to the downside, albeit in thinner volumes due to Australia’s market holiday, and Aud/Usd hovering just shy of 0.7700 in advance of NAB’s business survey and CPI tomorrow.
  • JPY/EUR/CAD/CHF/GBP – All fractionally softer vs their US counterpart, but the Yen still ‘comfortably’ above 104.00 and Euro surviving another lurch towards 1.2100 following a fade into 1.2150 and loss of the 50 DMA (1.2124). Meanwhile, the Loonie is still straddling 1.2150 with an eye on crude prices and the Franc is afloat on 0.8800 and 1.0700 handles, marginally, wary about further intervention to curb excess strength on any acute investor angst caused by risk events, like Italian PM Conte’s efforts to forge a new coalition Government. Last, but not quite least, Sterling has also staged a comeback after a brief dip under the 21 DMA (to circa 1.3610 vs 1.3624) and is pivoting 0.8900 against the Euro in wake of more UK jobs and wage data ‘propped’ up by Government support.
  • SCANDI/EM – The Sek and Nok have unwound more gains relative to the Eur irrespective of the constructive risk tone that might be deemed supportive, or firmer oil for that matter, so it seems that COVID-19 jitters have combined with a less bullish chart backdrop to undermine the Crowns. On that note, Sweden is seeking more clarification on the precise number of does per vial and has suspended payments to Pfizer pending answers. Elsewhere, the Try remains relatively firm and Czk is bid amidst talk of CNB tightening in 2021 (Governor giving guidance for up to 1 or 2 hikes), but the Brl could be in for a long Brazilian post-holiday weekend hangover.

In commodities, WTI and Brent front month futures are modestly firmer in what is seemingly early European consolidation, but the benchmarks remain within recent ranges in the grand-scheme of things. News-flow for the complex has been light with traders eyeing the overall risk sentiment in the absence of catalysts – also comprising of any major COVID-related developments to disrupt the current supply/demand balance. WTI resides around 53/bbl having had printed an overnight base at USD 52.32/bbl, while its Brent counterpart trades narrowly above USD 56/bbl after printing a current USD 55.42/bbl intraday low. Elsewhere, spot gold is uneventful on either side of the 1850/oz mark amid a lack of fresh catalysts and ahead of the FOMC policy decision tomorrow. Technicians will be eyeing some levels in the vicinity including the 100 DMA (1880.90), 21 WMA (1879.50), 21 DMA (1873.08), 200 DMA (1848.87) and yesterday’s low (1846.90). Turning to base metals, copper prices edged lower with LME copper back under USD 8000/t amid uncertainties surrounding the US stimulus package. Conversely, Shanghai stainless steel gained for a second consecutive session amid rising raw material prices and prospects for finer demand heading into Chinese New Year holiday in February.

US Event Calendar

  • 9am: S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA, est. 8.7%, prior 7.95%; 9am: S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA, est. 1.0%, prior 1.61%
  • 10am: Conf. Board Consumer Confidence, est. 89, prior 88.6; Expectations, prior 87.5; Present Situation, prior 90.3

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

It’s been a decidedly odd 24 hours as while global sentiment suddenly dipped in the US morning session, we simultaneously saw some astonishing moves higher in names that are currently the darlings of the Robinhood/Reddit world. Both then normalised into the close but what a round trip. On this, if you’ve been reading the EMR since it started in 2007 then you would know that my favourite gadget of the 2000s was undoubtedly the BlackBerry. My love affair extended well into the 2010s before the iPhone finally started to become easier and easier to type with. After nearly a decade of carrying both, it was a sad day when saying goodbye to the buttons of the BlackBerry and I genuinely wondered what would become of the company as more and more migrated. However BlackBerry shares have surged +301% since the end of October and are up +172% YTD and +28.4% yesterday (+48.4% at the days highs and at levels not seen since October 2011). It seems this has been a popular stock with online stock chat rooms (on Reddit). Another stock that is getting attention for similar reasons is GameStop. Since the end of October it’s up +633%, +308% YTD and +146% at the peak yesterday before closing +18.1%. So a wild ride and the retail day traders seem to be targeting and battling institutional shorts at the moment with the former generally winning in recent days and weeks.

The only thing I’ve seen like it was in 2000 when well over half the large team I was in at the time were buying tech stocks like they were going out of fashion. At one point virtually everyone had U.K. company lastminute.com in their portfolio at absurd valuations. My boss then said that he had to buy some against his better judgement, as a hedge, as if they continued to go exponentially higher his team would all resign and retire rich leaving him to pick up the pieces! It wasn’t long before they and others collapsed though and he was pleased his team had to instead work harder to pay the bills. 21 years on and a new generation are probably doing even crazier things. Maybe the main difference was that it was global then whereas this is concentrated almost exclusively in the US.

Returning back to more mainstream markets, we saw a sharp intra-day sell-off in risk assets on both sides of the Atlantic yesterday after a healthy start. Growing concerns about the pace and quality of the vaccine rollout, about possible virus mutations, and the potential for further lockdown measures led investors to reassess current valuations. The US reversal took place around 90 minutes into the US session, with the S&P 500 having initially been up +0.46%, before swiftly reversing course to dip to -1.15% in around 45 minutes. The selloff came shortly after new Senate Majority leader Schumer said it may take 4-6 weeks for the new US stimulus plan to pass, which seemed to remind markets of the underlying risks to a market trading at the highs. However after the sharp selloff, the index recovered steadily throughout the rest of the session before recouping nearly all its intraday losses – closing +0.36% higher and at a new record. Tech stocks were a large part of the broad index’s rebound, with the NASDAQ gaining +0.69% for its fourth straight record close. However it was not all good news as the reopening trade suffered as worries surrounding the vaccine rollout spread, with Energy (-1.06%), Banks (-0.88%), and Consumer Services (-0.95%) stocks weighing on the index. Stocks in the Consumer Services industry group such as Carnival (-4.95%), Royal Carribean (-4.92%) and MGM (-4.49%) were among the worst performers in the entire S&P 500.

Europe saw the worst of the losses due to missing the US rebound. The STOXX 600 (-0.83%), the DAX (-1.66%) and the CAC 40 (-1.57%) all lost significant ground, especially from lunchtime onwards, before finishing just off session lows. European airlines saw some of the biggest declines, including Lufthansa (-3.29%), easyJet (-6.66%) and IAG (-7.65%) as news reports from across the continent pointed to the imposition of tougher restrictions domestically and on international travel. For instance, UK Prime Minister Johnson said that the UK was “actively” working on an Australian-style plan to quarantine travellers in hotels, while the French Journal du Dimanche repoted that France could go into another lockdown “within days”. As we discussed yesterday in the EMR and CoTD it’s becoming clearer to us that although vaccines will likely be a huge saviour as expected, countries are going to be more hesitant to remove restrictions than we thought a couple of months ago due to perceived threats of mutations evading vaccines. I’m now increasingly expecting countries to have stricter border controls around the middle of this year than many did for large parts of last year even with high vaccination rates. The desire to avoid imported mutations seems to be increasing.

In spite of the selloff, one outperformer was Moderna, which surged +12.20% following the news that its vaccine still produced neutralising antibodies against the UK and South African variants. With the South African variant, it’s worth noting that there was a six-fold reduction in the number of antibodies produced which might be deemed a bit worrying, but the company said they were advancing a booster candidate against the South African variant into preclinical studies and a Phase 1 study in the US. This came amid a row between the EU and AstraZeneca over vaccine supply and also speculation in the German media about the low efficacy of this vaccine for the older population and concerns that it won’t be approved for use in this demographic on the continent. So vaccine uncertainty is high even if our CoTD yesterday (link here) showed the Pfizer/BioNTech one is doing as good a job as could be hoped so far in Israel.

Amidst the general risk-off tone, sovereign bonds rallied strongly, with yields on 10yr Treasuries down -5.6bps to 1.030% ahead of tomorrow’s Fed meeting, their lowest level in over two weeks. It was real rates rather than inflation expectations that drove the bulk of that decline, with 10yr breakevens down just -0.9bps, and 5y5y forward inflation swaps for the US ending the session down -1.5bps. It was a similar story in Europe, with falling yields driven by lower real rates there too, as 10yr yields on bunds (-3.8bps), OATs (-3.8bps) and gilts (-4.6bps) all moving lower.

Sticking with sovereign bonds, the biggest outperformer yesterday were actually Italian BTPs, whose spread over bunds came down -3.6bps as speculation rose that Prime Minister Conte would resign and form a new coalition government, thus averting early elections. In terms of the latest, PM Conte is expected to offer his resignation to President Mattarella later today, before attempting to form a new government, with Bloomberg reporting officials saying it could include a combination of centrists, unaffiliated lawmakers, members of former Premier Renzi’s Italy Alive party, and lawmakers from the center-right Forza Italia party. For now however, early elections are still seen as unlikely.

This morning in Asia, markets have lost ground as investors continued to weigh the timing of potential stimulus in the US, and the Nikkei (-0.96%), the Hang Seng (-2.46%), the Shanghai Comp (-1.43%) and the Kospi (-2.05%) are all seeing significant declines. Meanwhile S&P 500 futures (-0.54%) are similarly pointing lower.

In terms of other Covid news, there were some positive case numbers out of Europe, with the number of new daily cases in the UK at a one-month low of 22,195 (albeit referencing Sunday data which can be artificially low), while Italy posted its lowest number of new cases since mid-October, at 8,562. The US also had positive news on lower case counts as the country posted its lowest one day rise in cases since December 2. Additionally it was the first day since October that no state had over 1000 new cases per million residents. California lifted regional stay-at-home orders, with the state now returning to its tiered reopening system. While heavy restrictions remain in place, businesses such as outdoor-dining and pickup-only retail are allowed to restart. Vaccine supply continues to be an issue with New York City Mayor de Blasio saying plans to construct vaccination sites at large venues like the city’s stadiums are on hold due to dose shortages. The city continues to believe it could offer 500,000 jabs per week if supply and qualification restrictions were lifted.

On yesterday’s data, the Ifo business climate indicator from Germany fell to 90.1 in January (vs. 91.4 expected), which comes amidst continued extensions of the country’s lockdown. Both the expectations (91.1) and the current assessment (89.2) readings fell on the previous month. According to our German economists’ note yesterday (link here), German GDP in Q1 now looks likely to fall by at least 1% quarter-on-quarter, assuming that the restrictions for retail and services will only be gradually lifted after Feb 14.

To the day ahead now, and there are an array of earnings releases, including Microsoft, Johnson & Johnson, Verizon Communications, NextEra Energy, Texas Instruments, Starbucks, American Express, General Electric and Lockheed Martin. Data releases include UK employment data for November and the US FHFA house price index for November. From the US there’ll also be the January readings of the Conference Board’s consumer confidence indicator and the Richmond Fed’s manufacturing index. Finally, the ECB’s Centeno will be speaking, and the IMF will be releasing their World Economic Outlook Update.

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)TUESDAY MORNING/ MONDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN54.81 PTS OR 1.51%   //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 767.75 PTS OR 2.55%    /The Nikkei closed DOWN 276.11 POINTS OR 0.96%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.46%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP AT 6.4677 /Oil UP TO 53.15 dollars per barrel for WTI and 56.29 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.4677. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.4760 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS //TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED//CORONAVIRUS/PANDEMIC/TRUMP TESTS POSITIVE FOR COVID 19  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3 C CHINA

CHINA/HONG KONG

Hong Kong stocks have been soaring lately due to a flood of Chinese money entering the system. However the markets fell badly last night

(zerohedge)

Hong Kong Stocks Soar On Flood Of Chinese Money

 
MONDAY, JAN 25, 2021 – 23:37

After a poor showing in 2020, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index has roared back to life in 2021 and is the best performing index so far this year, thanks to a deluge of Chinese money. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index on Monday closed above 30,000 points for the first time in 20 months as a rally since late December powered by investors in mainland China gains momentum.

Defying fears that China’s take over of Hong Kong would lead to a crash in local stocks, the Hang Seng has soared and as the Nikkei reports, signs suggest Chinese hunger for Hong Kong stocks will continue for the time being, with investors buying new-economy shares, such as Tencent Holdings, and stocks in other companies including China Mobile and Xiaomi, especially since their ability to list in the US remains in limbo for the foreseeable future.

While these shares were dumped earlier this month after the U.S. imposed an investment ban on companies identified as having links to the country’s military, mainland investors have shifted out of China-listed A-shares to buy the cheaper Hong Kong-listed H-shares of mainland companies traded in the territory.

Hong Kong’s benchmark index, which fell 3.4% last year and trailed far behind international and mainland Chinese indexes, is on course for its best January since 1989, when it climbed 14.3% according to the Nikkei. The Hang Seng’s gains so far, at 10.8%, are nearly quadruple those of the S&P 500 index. The Hang Seng closed on Monday at 30,159.01, although it dipped back below 30,000 on Tuesday after China’s unexpectedly withdrew funds from the financial system amid warnings about growth froth.

The Chinese backstop is providing some assistance to the world’s cheapest major index that fell out favor as the coronavirus pandemic and a national security law imposed by Beijing in June following months of anti-government protests raised doubts over Hong Kong’s future as a global financial center.

And now that momentum is back, so are the inflows into Hong Kong from China through the Stock Connect program, which allows mainland investors to buy shares on the city’s exchange. This number has already raced to a record $30.3 billion this month or about four times the 2020 monthly average. The buying this month also is a third of the entire net purchases of $87 billion made last year, according to Nikkei calculations.

Yet just like in the US, where major banks are warning that a day of reckoning for market euphoria is near, analysts have cautioned that the pace of mainland buying will have to slow even though some of it is driven by the arbitrage opportunity the Hong Kong-listed shares offer and investors’ belief that the economic resurgence in the mainland will drive corporate earnings.

Frank Benzimra, head of Asia equity strategy at Societe Generale in Hong Kong, said that since the inception of Stock Connect more than six years ago, there consistently has been southbound inflows, “with current volumes driven by investor hunger for new-economy stocks that have mushroomed in Hong Kong and money chasing beaten down stocks that face a U.S. investment ban.”

He said that while he believes “inflows will continue as the Hong Kong market transforms into the Nasdaq of the East, the volumes won’t be as high as it is currently now.”

Last Wednesday, the state-run China Securities Journal warned investors to be wary of a correction in Hong Kong, where institutional investors dominate, if stock valuations “deviate from fundamentals.”

Stock Connect’s southbound turnover, which represents both the buying and selling of Hong Kong-listed shares through the exchanges in Shanghai and Shenzhen, has exceeded $8 billion a day, representing 14% of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange’s volumes. That compares with a daily average volume of 10% in the second half of 2020.

“We believe southbound [flows through Stock Connect] will play a greater role structurally in the Hong Kong market,” Morgan Stanley strategists wrote in a note last week. They cited three reasons for their:

  • First, Hong Kong provided the opportunity to invest in some of the largest mainland companies in the telecommunications, technology and entertainment sectors.
  • Second, the growing trend of U.S.-listed Chinese companies, including Alibaba Group Holding and JD. Com, holding a secondary listing in Hong Kong is luring investors from the mainland.
  • Third, an appreciating yuan gives room for authorities to allow currency outflows with Hong Kong — the first port of call for investors.

Among the stocks that have been sharply bid up is Tencent, which is up a whopping 22.5% this month. Other favored targets include companies such as China Mobile, China Telecom and railway equipment maker CRRC Corp., all of which bore the brunt of the sell-off in the past two months after the U.S. banned Americans from trading in them.

The top 20 stocks by southbound daily inflow this year through Jan. 19 has on average accounted for 43% of turnover on the Hong Kong exchange, compared with 7% for the same period last year, according to analysts at Morgan Stanley. The figures are even higher for China Mobile and oil conglomerate CNOOC, accounting for 94% and 74%, respectively, of the volumes in Hong Kong, compared with 2% and 3% last year.

As the Nikkei adds, the inflow into Hong Kong started to accelerate in recent weeks as more than 200 billion yuan ($31 billion) of new mutual funds raised so far this year is deployed, with allocations to Hong Kong likely to rise to half that amount, Citigroup analyst Yafei Tian said.

“The higher interest in Hong Kong stocks could be due to a couple of reasons, including laggard performance versus A-shares, inauguration of [the] Biden administration easing concerns over U.S.-China tensions and attractive new economy exposures,” she said.

Said buying helped Hong Kong-listed shares claw back steep discounts to their yuan-denominated versions trading in Shanghai or Shenzhen. Last October, the premium that yuan-denominated shares had over their Hong Kong counterparts surged to its highest level since 2009. The Hang Seng Stock Connect China AH Premium Index, which measures the absolute price premium A-shares have over H-shares for the largest and most liquid mainland companies, soared to 149.37 points on Oct. 15. It has since come off that recent high and closed on Friday at 134.84.

“A true value investor should now: Sell A-shares and buy H-shares,” Li Bei, the managing director of Shanghai Banxia Investment Management, wrote on the company’s official WeChat account. In 2020, “almost all asset classes in the world have achieved growth except for Hong Kong stocks,” she said. “H-shares have not felt the easing of overseas liquidity and the strong recovery of China’s economy.” She said the “undervaluation” of Hong Kong stocks is bigger among sanctioned companies, such as China Mobile, China Unicom, China Telecom and CNOOC.

The infatuation that Chinese investors have with Hong Kong is not new: they have been the biggest supporters of Hong Kong stocks during the past year amid questions over the city’s future as a global financial center and as Western investors have pulled back. Beijing’s moves to erode the autonomy enjoyed by the city have hurt confidence, while months of social unrest and the pandemic have sent Hong Kong’s economy into a deep recession.

Yet as global investors balked at investing in Hong Kong, money from the mainland has been flowing in. Almost $80 billion has flooded into the city through Stock Connect since the national security law came into effect on June 30. That compares with $170 billion that came in from China since the start of 2015 to June 2020.

However, analysts caution that such exuberance has faded in the past. Mainland investors poured nearly $20 billion into Hong Kong in March last year after pandemic-induced selling sent markets into bear market territory, which is marked by a 20% fall from a recent peak.

As Hong Kong shares lagged, investors turned their attention elsewhere, with inflows averaging just $3.5 billion over the next three months. Analysts warned that, while Chinese investors may continue buying, sustaining such momentum will be difficult. Still, analysts largely expect the Hong Kong’s benchmark index, where mainland companies hold a 60% weighting, to catch up with the economic recovery in China.

“Broadly speaking, we are optimistic on the outlook for H-shares, given continued inflows from China and the positive trajectory for China economic growth,” said Tai Hui, chief Asia market strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management in Hong Kong. “That points to a long-term earnings growth potential for many companies in H-shares, so we do see potential for further upside.”

END

Biden stops building walls but China is erecting border walls with Burma and Vietnam to stop the invasion of COVID

(zerohedge)

China, Blaming Covid, Is Erecting Border Walls With Myanmar And Vietnam

 
MONDAY, JAN 25, 2021 – 23:59

China is now starting to build and/or reinforce border walls near its Southeast borders – “stirring up controversy” with neighboring countries, according to a new report from Australia’s ABC.  While much of the focus in the U.S. over the last 4 years was decrying President Trump’s calls to build a wall domestically, China was doing the exact same thing on its border with Vietnam and Myanmar.

“It looks like a national program,” one Southeast Asia expert said.

The project in Vietnam, which is still being extended, has a 4.5 meter high iron fence topped with barbed wire. It was built between 2012 and 2017 and stretches 12 kilometers, the report says.

Additionally, the country has also erected a 659 km fence alongside China’s 2,000 km border with Myanmar. The project was completed in December of last year, according to the report. In some cases “the walls are designed not just to keep the virus out, but to keep people in,” ABC reports.

The same expert argued that smuggling could be the main reason for erecting such walls. He noted that “illegal cross-border activity has been a major headachefor both China and Vietnam since 1979”. The illicit activity includes trafficking of Vietnamese women to China. “At least” 100 girls were sent back to Vietnam from China every year, ABC had previously reported. Some, however, were stolen and/or sold – and never heard from again.

China explains the wall by doing what most governments around the world have been doing for the last year – blaming Covid. “Before the pandemic, there was no wall, but only short wooden fences,” a YouTuber, who captured video of the wall along Myanmar, said.

end

Bubbles are occuring in Chinese market which has forced the PBOC to drain liquidity.

(zerohedge)

China Repo Rates Soar To 15 Month High After PBOC Warns Of Asset Bubbles, Drains Liquidity

 
TUESDAY, JAN 26, 2021 – 9:04

China’s money market rates surged after the People’s Bank of China drained cash from the financial system, just as a central bank adviser warned about bubbles in markets.

The overnight repurchase rate soared 28 basis points to 2.77%, the highest since October 2019, and just a month after it hit a record low.

At the same time, the cost on 7-day repurchase agreements jumped 36 basis points to 2.79%. Earlier in the day the PBOC withdrew a net 78 billion yuan via open-market operations, the most in two weeks.

It wasn’t just the PBOC’s liquidity drain however: the rate spike was also catalyzed by a stark warning from PBOC adviser Ma Jun, who spoke at a wealth management forum where according to the 21st Century Business Herald said bubbles have formed in the stock and property markets, and he proposed a shift in monetary policy.

“Whether this situation will intensify in the future depends on whether monetary policy is appropriately changed this year,” he said. He added that if not, such problems would “certainly continue” and lead to “greater economic and financial risks in the medium- and long-term.”

He also said that there will be less demand for monetary expansion as corporate profits will improve, reducing their reliance on debt financing.

To be sure, Chinese regulators have already moved to constrain rising property prices. They limited the amount banks can lend to the sector at the end of last year and are targeting leverage among the country’s vast developers. Individual cities have also introduced measures to curb prices.

In late 2020, PBoC restrictions on short-term liquidity led to a surge in interbank borrowing costs. The three-month Shanghai interbank benchmark more than doubled between May and November to more than 3 per cent — its highest level in two years — before it gradually declined.

Then China’s markets soared at the end of last year from a barrage of liquidity injections by the central bank, helping stocks and the yuan end 2020 on a high note. The benchmark CSI 300 Index has since risen to the highest level since 2008.

“The PBOC is unlikely to loosen its purse strings at least this week, which will make cross-month liquidity very tight,” said Xing Zhaopeng, an economist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group.

In this context it is hardly a surprise then that after the warning and liquidity drain, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index — which has been boosted this month by record-breaking daily volumes of buying by mainland investors — fell by more than 2.4%. Mainland China’s CSI 300 index of Shanghai- and Shenzhen-listed stocks dropped 2%.

The mood is still totally remaining intact in terms of its positivity,” said Andy Maynard, managing director at China Renaissance Securities. “Although we have a blip today . . . yesterday was kind of euphoric, last week was kind of euphoric.” But, he added, rising borrowing costs were unlikely to undermine positive momentum in China and other emerging markets.

“Where else in the world do you go? Where do you put that money?” he said. “For the global asset allocators who stay in equity, I don’t think you necessarily rush back to the dollar and you definitely are not touching Europe”.

And while the Chinese warning dented some overnight enthusiasm, S&P futures have since reversed and are trading near all time highs.

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

CORONAVIRUS UPDATE/NETHERLANDS/ANTI CURFEW RIOTS

(ZEROHEDGE)

Netherlands Hit With Third Night Of Anti-Curfew Riots

 
TUESDAY, JAN 26, 2021 – 9:15

Dutch riots unfolded for the third consecutive night as anti-lockdown protesters defied the country’s new curfew rules to mitigate the spread of COVID-19, according to RT News.

At least 150 people were arrested Monday night in Amsterdam and Rotterdam, where stores were looted and vandalized.

Rotterdam Mayor Ahmed Aboutaleb signed an emergency order last night giving law enforcement the powers to arrest protesters.

“These people are shameless thieves, I cannot say otherwise,” Aboutaleb said. “I had to threaten them with the use of teargas – a far-reaching measure. I find that sad, because I have never had to do that in my entire career as mayor.”

Social unrest also took place in other metro areas like The Hague, Haarlem, Almelo, Helmond, Geleen, Veenendaal, Almelo, Breda, and Tilburg. 

Rioters were dressed in all black. Some torched cars and threw rocks and unleashed fireworks at police.

Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte condemned the rioters and said their motivations had “nothing to do with protesting” lockdowns.

“It’s criminal violence and we will treat it as such,” Rutte added.

In several Dutch cities, Mayors have also announced emergency orders to arrest rioters and prevent further looting.

Over the weekend, police said some 300 people were detained on Saturday and Sunday. Much of the frustration comes from the government shuttering all bars and restaurants in the northwestern European country since October, with schools and non-essential shops closed in mid-December to mitigate the virus spread.

Koen Simmers, the head of the national police union, told local television that officers are preparing for additional riots. “I hope it was a one-off, but I’m afraid it could be a harbinger for the days and weeks to come,” he said.

END

ITALY

Conte quits as pM.  He will again try a new bid to build a majority

(zerohedge)

Conte Quits As Italy’s PM In New Bid To Build Majority

 
TUESDAY, JAN 26, 2021 – 10:25

The Tuesday resignation of Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte has left the country in what the Italians call a government crisis “in the dark” – one which has no obvious solution, according to AFP.

After three weeks of political uncertainty following the exit of a small party, Italia Viva, from the coalition government led by Conte, Italy has been plunged into instability. The schism came to a head amid disputes over EU pandemic recovery funds and how they are dispersed. Amid the impasse, ex-premier Matteo Renzi – head of Italia Viva – walked.

Early Tuesday, Conte – Italy’s longest-serving head of state in recent memory – informed his ministers of his resignation, before officially handing it to President Sergio Mattarella – who reportedly asked Conte to remain in a ‘caretaker’ role during the formation of a new government.

Conte’s resignation was largely seen as an attempt to avoid a parliamentary defeat at a Senate vote later this week, after barely surviving a vote of confidence last week. With the departure of Italia Viva, however, his government was stropped of a working majority, meaning any major laws would face gridlock for the remainder of his mandate.

Mattarella now has to decide whether he’ll give Conte another chance to negotiate with lawmakers in order to cobble a majority back together that will allow him to govern. If he can’t strike an agreement  with Renzi on a new coalition government, voters will be forced to head to the polls again in a forced election two years ahead of schedule.

Another possibility, per AFP, is naming an independent as premier, which would prevent conflict between the PD and M5S. Leftist publication La Repubblica Daily reports that Conte could serve as a minister in such a cabinet.

Until now the main coalition parties – the anti-establishment 5-Star Movement and centre-left Democratic Party (PD), have backed Conte’s efforts to remain in power. “Conte is the essential element and we need to broaden and relaunch the government’s action,” Debora Serracchiani, the deputy head of the PD, told state broadcaster RAI.

Conte, an attorney with no direct political affiliation, is close to 5-Star, the largest party in parliament. He first came to power in 2018 after 5-Star formed an unexpected coalition with the far-right League. When that pact unraveled a year later, he stayed on as head of a new administration involving the 5-Star and leftist parties. Opinion polls show that Conte is Italy’s most popular leader, with an approval rating of 56%, almost 20 points above the next closest politician, according to a poll published by Corriere della Sera daily on Saturday.

Italy has recorded over 85,000 deaths linked to COVID-19, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

IRAN/CHINA
 
 
Iran and China caught in an illicit oil transfer
 
 
(zerohedge)
 

Iran & China “Caught Red-Handed” In Illicit Oil Transfer Off Indonesia

 
TUESDAY, JAN 26, 2021 – 5:15

Iran is demanding answers on Monday from the Indonesian government after its coast guard seized an Iranian-flagged vessel off the Indonesian coast over the weekend.

Indonesia’s coast guard said the tanker was “caught red-handed” in an illegal ship to ship oil transfer with a Panamanian-flagged tanker. The Sunday incident comes after multiple international reports detailed the increasingly creative ways that both Iran and Venezuela are seeking to skirt US sanctions on their crude exports, often with China’s help.

Via Reuters

The Wilson Center’s Jason Brodsky has noted that the Iranian-flagged MT Horse, which is one of the vessels involved, was “sent by Iran to Venezuela last year to deliver 2.1 million barrels of Iranian condensate.” In this latest episode it appears a China-Iran venture to import or ship the Islamic Republic’s “banned” oil.

The other tanker involved is the MT Freya. Both tankers had switched off their tracking transponders in an apparent effort to conceal their identity in a method called “ghosting”.

“The tankers, first detected at 5:30 a.m. local time (2130 GMT on Jan. 23) concealed their identity by not showing their national flags, turning off automatic identification systems and did not respond to a radio call,” Coast guard spokesman Wisnu Pramandita said.

Iran is dismissing the whole thing as a “technical issue” while demanding Indonesia provide details of why its tanker was seized.

Meanwhile, according to Reuters, the MT Freya which appeared ready to receive the Iranian tanker’s load is managed by Shanghai Future Ship Management Co. The report says “a Chinese company directory found that the registered office address of Shanghai Future Ship Management Co came under another firm named Shanghai Chengda Ship Management.” However, the companies issued no comment.

All 61 total crew members aboard both ships, reportedly made up mostly of Iranian and Chinese nationals, are currently being detained.

end

SAUI ARABIA/YEMEN/IRAQ

This is trouble:  drones with warheads coming from either Iraq or Yemen is intercepted by the Saudi’s

(zerohedge)

Inbound Warhead Explodes Above Saudi Capital After Weekend Drone Intercept

 
 
TUESDAY, JAN 26, 2021 – 15:35

On Tuesday a large explosion shook Riyadh in what may have been an inbound missile intercept. It comes after Saudi air defenses were placed on high alert after similarly destroying an “enemy air target” – believed to have been a drone – sent towards Riyadh on Saturday, likely from Yemen or even possibly from Shia paramilitary forces in Iraq.

Citing multiple sources and eyewitnesses, Deutsche Welle reports the following of the Tuesday attack which ended with a major blast over the city:

A loud explosion was heard over the Saudi Arabian capital of Riyadh on Tuesday, witnesses reported. The cause of the blast has not yet been confirmed, but Saudi-owned al-Arabiya TV cited videos on social media of a missile being intercepted over the city.

Witnesses told Reuters that they had heard two bangs and saw a small plume of smoke in the sky.

 

Riyadh, via Shutterstock

There’s been no claim of responsibility and the kingdom’s defense ministry has yet to assign blame or give details as to what the projectile was.

“Saudi-owned Al Arabiya TV cited local reports of an explosion and videos circulating on social media purporting to show a missile being intercepted over Riyadh,” Reuters wrote of the attack.

At least one government in the region has now acknowledged it as a “missile attack,” with Turkey’s Defense Ministry issuing the following statement in the hours following: “We strongly condemn missile attacks against residential areas in Saudi Arabia’s capital Riyadh.”

The inbound projectile caused all flights at Riyadh’s international airport to be grounded for hours late into the day Tuesday.

Yemen’s Houthis have in past years launched missile attacks on both the capital and Saudi Aramco facilities, most famously in the September 2019 Abqaiq–Khurais attack; however, they are reportedly denying being involved in either the Tuesday or Saturday incidents.

There’s currently some speculation that the projectile could have come from Iraq, after Iran-backed paramilitary forces appeared to issue messages publicly celebrating the attacks.

6.Global Issues

CORONAVIRUS UPDATE/LOCKDOWNS

Another study shows that yet again lockdowns do not work

Mises/McMaken

Another Study Shows—Yet Again—That Lockdowns Don’t Work

 
TUESDAY, JAN 26, 2021 – 6:00

Authored by Ryan McMaken via the Mises Institute (emphasis ours)

Although advocates for covid-19 lockdowns continue to insist that they save lives, actual experience keeps suggesting otherwise.

On a national level, just eyeballing the data makes this clear. Countries that have implemented harsh lockdowns shouldn’t expect to have comparatively lower numbers of covid-19 deaths per million.

In Italy and the United Kingdom, for example, where lockdowns have been repeatedly imposed, death totals per million remain among the worst in the world. Meanwhile, in the United States, states with with the most harsh lockdown rules—such as New York, New Jersey, and Massachusetts are among the states with the worst total deaths.

Lockdown advocates, of course, are likely to argue that if researchers control for a variety of other variables, then we’re sure to see that lockdowns have saved millions of lives. Yet research keeps showing us this simply isn’t the case.

The latest study to show the weakness of the pro-lockdown position appeared this month in the European Journal of Clinical Investigation, authored by Eran Bendavid, Christopher Oh, Jay Bhattacharya, and John P.A. Ioannidis. Titled “Assessing Mandatory Stay-at-Home and Business Closure Effects on the Spread of COVID-19,” the authors compare “more restrictive non-pharmaceutical interventions” (mrNPI) and “less restrictive non-pharmaceutical interventions” (lrNPI). More restrictive interventions include mandatory stay-at-home orders and forced business closures. Less restrictive measures include “social distancing guidelines, discouraging of international and domestic travel, and a ban on large gatherings.” The researchers compare outcomes at the subnational level in a number of countries, including England, France, Germany, Iran, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain, and the United States. This is then compared against countries with less restrictive measures, primarily Sweden and South Korea, where stay-at-home orders and business closures were not widely implemented.

The conclusion:

We find no clear, significant beneficial effect of mrNPIs on case growth in any country….In none of the 8 countries and in none out of the 16 comparisons (against Sweden or South Korea) were the effects of mrNPIs significantly negative (beneficial). The point estimates were positive (point in the direction of mrNPIs resulting in increased daily growth in cases).

That is, the more restrictive lockdown measures pointed to worse outcomes.

This data suggests that the theoretical underpinnings of the lockdown philosophy are wrong. As summed up by Bendavid et al.,

The conceptual model underlying this approach is that, prior to meaningful population immunity, individual behavior is the primary driver of reductions in transmission rate, and that any NPI may provide a nudge towards individual behavior change, with response rates that vary between individuals and over time. lrNPIs could have large anti-contagion effects if individual behavioral response is large, in which case additional, more restrictive NPIs may not provide much additional benefit. On the other hand, if lrNPIs provide relatively small nudges to individual behavior, then mrNPIs may result in large behavioral effects at the margin, and large reductions in the growth of new cases.

Translation: mild measures encouraging caution on exposure to others probably lessen the spread. Therefore, more stringent measures will surely do an even better job of limiting the spread!

But this doesn’t appear to be the case. Rather, the authors suggest those areas with lower covid mortality are areas where the public pursued low-hanging fruit in terms of slowing the spread. This included canceling large, crowded events and limiting travel. More stringent requirements on top of this appeared to produce no beneficial effect, and, if anything, had the opposite of the intended effect.

This study, of course, is just the latest in a long line of similar studies calling into question the assumption—for it is only an assumption—that harsh lockdowns lower mortality.

For example, back in May, researchers at The Lancet concluded that “hard lockdowns” don’t “protect old and frail” people, nor do they decrease mortality from covid-19. Later, a July study in The Lancet stated: “The authors identified a negative association between the number of days to any lockdown and the total reported cases per million, where a longer time prior to implementation of any lockdown was associated with a lower number of detected cases per million.”

In an August 1 study, also published by The Lancet, the authors concluded, “Rapid border closures, full lockdowns, and wide-spread testing were not associated with COVID-19 mortality per million people.”

A June study published in Advance by Stefan Homburg and Christof Kuhbandner found that the data “strongly suggests” that

the UK lockdown was both superfluous (it did not prevent an otherwise explosive behavior of the spread of the coronavirus) and ineffective (it did not slow down the death growth rate visibly).

In fact, the overall trend of infection and death appears to be remarkably similar across many jurisdictions regardless of what nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) are implemented by policymakers.

In a paper published with the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), authors Andrew Atkeson, Karen Kopecky, and Tao Zha found that covid-19 deaths followed a similar pattern “virtually everywhere in the world” and that “[f]ailing to account for this familiar pattern risks overstating the importance of policy mandated NPIs for shaping the progression of this deadly pandemic.”

Refusing to be daunted by these holes in the official narrative, lockdown advocates often insist that lockdowns must be tolerated because “it’s better to be safe than sorry.”

But this is a highly questionable notion as well.

Lockdowns and other forms of mandated isolation bring with them a host of health problems of their own. As Bendavid et al. note, restrictive NPIs:

Includ[e] hunger, opioid-related overdoses, missed vaccinations, increase in non-COVID diseases from missed health services, domestic abuse, mental health and suicidality, as well as a host of economic consequences with health implications—it is increasingly recognized that their postulated benefits deserve careful study.

Perhaps not surprisingly, data on excess mortality during the covid-19 pandemic suggests only two-thirds of excess mortality can be medically connected to covid-19. As explained in a study in JAMA:

“Some people who never had the virus may have died because of disruptions caused by the pandemic,” says Dr. Steven H. Woolf, the director emeritus of the Virginia university’s Center on Society and Health and first author of the study. “These include people with acute emergencies, chronic diseases like diabetes that were not properly cared for, or emotional crises that led to overdoses or suicides.”

Increases in dementia deaths were especially notable.

And these effects can also be felt in the long term. As I showed in an April 30 article, unemployment kills. Economic crises, such as this one that was made worse by mandatory shutdowns and stay-at-home orders, leads to countless “years of life lost” through more suicide, heart disease, and drug overdoses.

Moreover, given the nature of the shutdowns and who is affected, this has lopsidedly affected women and especially Hispanic women, who are heavily represented in the workforce behind the service industry businesses shut down by government-imposed business closures.

The cumulative effect can be quite large. In a new study from Francesco Bianchi, Giada Bianchi, and Dongho Song from the National Bureau of Economic Research, the authors conclude that the economic fallout—in terms of unemployment and its effects—will lead to nearly nine hundred thousand deaths over the next fifteen years.

Of course, not all of the economic pain that coincided with the covid-19 panic of 2020 can be blamed on forced shutdowns. Many people would have likely minimized contact with others voluntarily out of fear of the disease. This would have indeed caused economic distortions and greater unemployment in some sectors.

But, as Bianchi, Bianchi, and Song admit, the lockdowns “contributed to further reduce economic activity” above and beyond normal voluntary reactions to covid-19. Combining these facts with what we know from the new Bendavid et al. study—namely that voluntary measures accomplished the bulk of mitigation—suggests the “further reduction” in economic activity produced no additional health benefits. That is, the portion of economic destruction wrought by forced shutdowns was inflicted upon the public for nothing.

Prior to 2020, of course, this was common knowledge. In a 2006 paper in Biosecurity and Bioterrorism called “Disease Mitigation Measures in the Control of Pandemic Influenza” by Thomas V. Inglesby, Jennifer B. Nuzzo, Tara O’Toole, and D.A. Henderson, the authors conclude:

The negative consequences of large-scale quarantine are so extreme (forced confinement of sick people with the well; complete restriction of movement of large populations; difficulty in getting critical supplies, medicines, and food to people inside the quarantine zone) that this mitigation measure should be eliminated from serious consideration.

Yet, “public health” bureaucrats suddenly decided in 2020 that decades of research was to be thrown out the window and lockdowns were to be imposed on hundreds of millions of human beings.

Mandatory Lockdowns vs. Voluntary Social Distancing

It should be noted that none of these researchers questioning the lockdown narrative express any problem with voluntary measures to reduce exposure to disease. Few are even likely to oppose measures like avoiding mass indoor gatherings.

But those sorts of measures are fundamentally different from mandated business closures and stay-at-home orders. The problem with mandatory lockdowns—in contrast to voluntary social distancing—is highlighted by the fact that they indiscriminately rob vulnerable populations of the services and assistance they need. And by “vulnerable populations” I mean anyone who is vulnerable to any life-threatening condition. Although we’re being conditioned to believe that deaths from covid are the only deaths worth noticing, the fact is that the world includes people who are vulnerable to suicide, to drug overdoses, and to economic ruin—which comes with countless secondary effects in the form of health problems. By denying these people the freedom to seek an income and secure the social and medical support they need, we are essentially saying that those people are expendable and it’s better to tilt the scales in favor of covid patients.

But as the mounting evidence discussed above suggests, the lockdowns don’t even produce the desired effects. So vulnerable people suffering from depression, untreated cancer, and other life-threatening conditions were forced to simply suffer unaided for no justifiable reason. This was done to fit a political narrative, but it was based on a batch of bad assumptions, half-baked science, and the arrogance of politicians.

Author:

Contact Ryan McMaken

Ryan McMaken (@ryanmcmaken) is a senior editor at the Mises Institute. Send him your article submissions for the Mises Wire and The Austrian, but read article guidelines first. Ryan has degrees in economics and political science from the University of Colorado and was a housing economist for the State of Colorado. He is the author of Commie Cowboys: The Bourgeoisie and the Nation-State in the Western Genre.

END
 
A good read…currency wars are back
 
 
Dr Daniel Lacalle

Currency Wars Are Back

 
TUESDAY, JAN 26, 2021 – 3:00

By Daniel Lacalle

The biggest mistake the Biden administration can make is to follow the siren calls of its competing economies to massively devalue the US Dollar, print endlessly and go full-MMT (Modern Monetary Theory), which is not modern nor a theory. Destroying the currency’s purchasing power to finance bloated government spending has been used for centuries with the same final effect: Collapse of the economy.

After an unprecedented increase in debt and government spending, many countries face the almost inevitable prospect of more currency devaluations, which has triggered pre-emptive responses all around the world. A currency war?

What is a currency war? A currency war is a conflict between nations trying to artificially devalue their domestic currency in order to be more competitive internationally but also to hurt their opponents. Using the currency to make the other nations less competitive while at the same time weakening their power.

It is based on a myth. That devaluation helps competitiveness and that having a strong currency is negative. Devaluation is not a tool for exports, it is a tool for cronyism, and destroys the purchasing power of salaries and savings to benefit low productivity sectors and the government. It is a transfer of wealth from citizens to the government.

The decision of the US Administration to consider some countries a currency manipulator is very relevant and can have significant implications for markets and the global economy, including:

  • Excluding firms from US government procurements.
  • Block or stop trade deals.
  • Calling for heightened IMF surveillance.
  • Sanctions to firms trading those currencies and actions at the IMF to take away their currency status.

It is very easy to prove that a country is not a currency manipulator. Eliminating capital controls and indirect or direct exchange rate fixing. The US would have never been able to consider China a currency manipulator if the yuan was not artificially fixed daily and capital restrictions had been eliminated.

The problem is that China, the Eurozone and other countries need a collapse of the US Dollar as world reserve currency in order to present themselves as an alternative.

As such, it is no wonder that so many governments, banks and economists globally are telling the Biden administration to print dollars to eternity, forget about limits to monetary policy and follow Argentina and Venezuela down the “printing money for the people fallacy”. Their ultimate objective is the destruction of the US Dollar as world reserve currency and the end of the United States as a leader in capital attraction.

Devaluing is not a tool to export, it is a tool to disguise structural imbalances and always harms much more than it benefits.

Unfortunately, in the United States, there are voices that want to “weaponize the dollar” (politically intervene the currency) defending the obsolete and pointless policy of devaluation,  which would be the biggest mistake in history and put the US economy and its status as a reserve currency at risk.

If the world gets into a currency war, with the assault on wages and savings that devaluation entails, no one wins.

A currency war is a war against citizens, their salaries and their savings, to benefit inefficient and indebted sectors.

A currency war would devastate the purchasing power of salaries and suppress investment and consumption decisions. When governments attack the currency, the economic agents’ reaction is not to invest and consume more, but a generalized slump in spending and capital allocation.

If a country enters a currency war, it disproportionately hurts its own citizens. If China, the Eurozone, Russia and the US do it, it will likely lead to a severe global crisis.

A currency war is not about who wins, but who loses the most. And if countries embark on an assault on their citizens’ wealth via devaluation the message to the world is only one: buy true reserve of value assets, like gold or silver, and hide.

END

7. OIL ISSUES

Its official:  from the Wall Street Journal;  Biden to halt all oil gas leasing on Federal land

(zerohedge/Wall Street Journal)

end

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

VENEZUELA/EU

The EU drops the recognition of Guaido as Venezuela’s interim President

(zerohedge)

EU Drops Recognition Of Juan Guaido As Venezuela’s ‘Interim President’

 
TUESDAY, JAN 26, 2021 – 1:30

The European Union has now officially abandoned its Venezuela mythology which deemed Juan Guaido as ‘Acting President’ or ‘Interim President’ rather than the man who actually rules the country, Nicolás Maduro (like it or not). This reaffirms a prior January 7th EU decision.

On Monday the European Union issued a new statement which merely acknowledged Guaido as a “privileged interlocutor” despite having over the prior two years joined Washington in recognizing the opposition leader of parliament as ‘actual winner’ in the disputed re-election of President Nicolas Maduro at the end of 2018.

 

Via AFP

“The EU repeats its calls for… the freedom and safety of all political opponents, in particular representatives of the opposition parties elected to the National Assembly of 2015, and especially Juan Guaido,” the statement said after a meeting of EU foreign ministers in Brussels.

“The EU considers them to be important actors and privileged interlocutors,” it added. Conspicuously absent were any references to Guaido as ‘interim president’. Ironically it was only last week that Guaido thanked the European Parliament for maintaining his status as ‘head of state’ in Venezuela.

More than mere symbolism, the issue’s importance lies in that “The status of interim president gives Guaido access to funds confiscated from Maduro by Western governments, as well as affording him access to top officials and supporting his pro-democracy movement domestically and internationally.”

Though it’s as yet uncertain what the Biden White House’s official stance on Guaido will be, or if it will change, last week Biden’s nominee for secretary of state Anthony Blinken gave an early indicator.

Blinken told Senators last Tuesday that Guaido will still remain the recognized leader of the Latin American country in Washington’s eyes. He also said he agrees with the existing US policy of seeking to “increase pressure on the regime” of Maduro.

This of course began under Trump when in January 2019 Guaido dubbed himself ‘Interim President’ and also ‘Acting President’ at the encouragement of Washington during Trump admin attempts to foment a military and popular uprising against Maduro. But Monday’s EU decision is likely to weigh heavy on near-term White House discussions on the issue.

END

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings TUESDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.2146 UP .0003 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS//CORONAVIRUS/PANDEMIC/TRUMP POSITIVE WITH VIRUS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /GREEN

USA/JAPAN YEN 103.73 DOWN 0.036 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.3698   UP   0.0022  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/

USA/CAN 1.2711 DOWN .0026 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  TUESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE BY 3 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.2146 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE DOWN 54.81 PTS OR 1.51% 

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 767.75 PTS OR 2.55% 

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0,46%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 767.75 PTS OR 2.55% 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 54.81 PTS OR 1.51% 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.46% 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 276.11  POINTS OR 0.96%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1855.35.

silver:$25.43-

Early TUESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 1.050% !!! UP 2 IN POINTS from MONDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

The 30 yr bond yield 1.807 UP 1  IN BASIS POINTS from MONDAY night.

USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 90.31 DOWN 8 CENT(S) from  MONDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers TUESDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing  TUESDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.02% DOWN 1 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.03.%  DOWN 1   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 08%//DOWN 0 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:0.65 DOWN 4 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 57 points higher than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES TO –.53% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.18% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR TUESDAY

Closing currency crosses for TUESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.2162  UP     .0020 or203 basis points

USA/Japan: 103.66 DOWN .097 OR YEN UP 10  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3733 UP .0056 POUND UP 56  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar  UP 30 basis points to 1.2708

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed UP AT 6.4652    ON SHORE  (x)..

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.4736  (YUAN up)..

TURKISH LIRA:  7.35

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.03%

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 1 IN basis points from MONDAY at 1.042 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 1.804 UP 1 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 90.20 UP 1  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for TUESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 21.90  0.33%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 247.30 POINTS OR 1.81%

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 64.03 POINTS 1.17%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 72.10 POINTS or 0.91%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 278.57 POINTS OR 1.28%

WTI Oil price; 52.51 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 55.57 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE  RISES:    75.25  THE CROSS LOWER BY 0.90 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE HIGHER BY 90 BASIS PTS)

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES  TO –.53 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price f0r Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OILPRICE 4:30 PM :  52.50//

BRENT :  55.82

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 1.040..up 1 basis points…

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 1.796 up 0 basis points..

EURO/USA 1.2166 ( UP 24   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:103.60 DOWN .164 (YEN UP 17 BASIS POINTS/..

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 90.14 UP 15 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.3739 UP 63  POINTS

the Turkish lira close: 7.34

the Russian rouble 75.04   UP 0.35 Roubles against the uSA dollar. UP 35 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.2693 UP 45 BASIS pts

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.53%

The Dow closed DOWN 22.96 POINTS OR 0.07%

NASDAQ closed UP 6.90 POINTS OR 0.05%


VOLATILITY INDEX:  23.36 CLOSED UP .17

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 0.214%//libor dropping like a stone

USA trading today in Graph Form

“Most Shorted” Stocks Massive Melt-Up Continues; Bonds, Bitcoin, & Bullion Flat

 
TUESDAY, JAN 26, 2021 – 16:03

Another day, another melt-up in the US equity market’s most-shorted stocks back to record highs…

Source: Bloomberg

That is the biggest 3-day short-squeeze since the March/April lows last year.

And the Top 10 “most shorted” Russell 3000 stocks have literally exploded since we noted them on Friday…

Source: Bloomberg

Of course, GME was among the meltiest-uppiest of the melt-ups… after Chamath and the Winklevi tweeted supportive comments for the Reddit/Robinhood crowd’s campaign against the shorts…

The $200 GME Calls came into play today as the gamma-vortex trade continues (65583 Friday calls vs 258 puts)…

Pitney Bowes (with a short interest nest 8 year highs) exploded higher after some comments on Seeking Alpha (also ramped thanks to call-buying debacle)…

“Let’s play a game of Global Thermonuclear meltup…”

Growth extended its rebound off critical supports relative to Value…

Source: Bloomberg

Overall, Nasdaq outperformed as Small Caps suffered (The Dow clung to unch)… (NOTE the late weakness overall as we suspect forces sales/liquidations of longs to fund margin calls on shorts)

Staples Outperformed as Energy stocks tumbled from a ripping-higher open…

Source: Bloomberg

After yesterday’s gains, bonds were largely flat today…

Source: Bloomberg

10Y Yields are holding well below the 1.10% level…

Source: Bloomberg

The Buck pumped’n’dumped on the day…

Source: Bloomberg

And Bitcoin went nowhere…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold also trod water amid the chaos in most-shorted stocks…

Source: Bloomberg

Oil oscillated sideways once again…

Source: Bloomberg

And finally, the gamma-vortex in the most-shorted stocks (virtuous circle of call-buying / hedging flows) has sent the put-call ratio crashing near record lows…

Source: Bloomberg

U.S. stocks are moving ever less in tandem, to a degree that has preceded equity market selloffs in recent years. As Bloomberg reports, the S&P 500 Index’s three-month realized correlation — a gauge of how closely the top stocks in the benchmark move relative to each other — has fallen to 0.16.

A maximum possible correlation of 1 would signify all the shares are moving in lockstep. Behind much of the decline is a combination of the reflation trade stock rotation and equity moves due to earnings season. But low correlations are also seen as a sign of weakening market breadth and have occurred before recent stock market corrections, including “Volmageddon” in early 2018.

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 
 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA//Non farm payrolls

 
 

ii)Market data/USA

USA home prices are accelerating at the fastest pace in 7 years as inflation is taking a huge grip on things.

(zerohedge0

US Home Prices Are Accelerating At The Fastest Pace In 7 Years

 
TUESDAY, JAN 26, 2021 – 9:04

After surged in October, US home prices (as measured by S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller index of property values) was expected to accelerate further as a low inventories of listings and solid demand, fueled by cheap borrowing costs, have given sellers more leeway to raise asking prices. And it did not disappoint as November (the latest data) showed the 20-City Composite Home Price Index soared 9.08% YoY… the fastest pace since May 2014.

Source: Bloomberg

As Craig Lazzara, managing director and global head of index investment strategy at S&P Dow Jones Indices, said in a statement last month:

“Although the full history of the pandemic’s impact on housing prices is yet to be written, the data from the last several months are consistent with the view that Covid has encouraged potential buyers to move from urban apartments to suburban homes,”

And that trend is continuing.

Phoenix, Seattle, San Diego reported highest year-over-year gains among 19 cities surveyed (Detroit excluded from report due to virus-related reporting constraints).

end

Home Prices Soar At 4.5 Times The Fed’s Inflation Target In All US Cities

 
TUESDAY, JAN 26, 2021 – 11:10

The Fed’s most frequent lament is that no matter how many trillions in bonds (and stocks and ETFs) it buys or how much liquidity it forehoses into the market, it just can’t push inflation higher.

Well, here’s an idea: maybe all the central-planning megabrains at the Marriner Eccles building and 33 Liberty Street can take a break from whatever circle jerk they are engaged in right now, and look at the latest Case Shiller numbers which showed not only that home prices surged at the fastest pace in seven years, rising more than 9% compared to a year ago…

… but that for the first time since the financial crisis, the annual price increase in every major US MSA (and according to Case Shiller there are 20 of them) rose by at least 6.8% Y/Y (in the case of Las Vegas) and as much as 13.8% in Phoenix, meaning that the average home prices across all of the US is now rising at 4.5 times the Fed’s own inflation target, and even the cheapest US MSA is rising at more than 3 times the Fed’s inflation goal.

Why does this matter? Simple: Because if – as Joseph Carson mused last month – CPI measured actual house prices, inflation would be above 3% right now.

For those who missed it, here again is the explanation:

“Actual” consumer price inflation is rising during the recession. That runs counter to the normal recessionary pattern when the combination of weak demand and excess capacity works to lessen inflationary pressures.

The main source of faster consumer price inflation is centered in the housing market. The Case-Shiller Home Price Index posted a 7% increase the last year, more than twice the gain of one-year ago.

The sharp acceleration in house price inflation represents the fastest increase since 2014 and runs counter to the patterns of the past two recessions. During the 2001 recession house price inflation slowed by one-third, while in the Great Financial Recession housing prices posted their largest decline in the post-war period, falling over 12% nationwide.

The consumer price index (CPI) does not show in house price inflation because it uses a non-market rent index to capture the trends in housing inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) estimates that the non-market rent index has increased 2.5% in the past 12 months, or 450 basis points below the rise in house prices.

If actual house prices were used in place of rents core CPI would have registered a 3% gain in the past year, nearly twice the reported gain of 1.6%.

If aggregate price measures did not exist house prices would be one of the most important measures to gauge inflation and the proper setting of official interest rates. That’s because house price cycles include easy credit/financial conditions, excess demand, and inflation expectations, three key ingredients of inflation cycles.

Rising consumer price inflation is added to the list of unique features of the 2020 recession. Others include an increase in corporate debt levels instead of debt-liquidation and rising equity prices instead of share price declines.

If the 2020 recession has economic and financial features that normally appear during economic recovery what does that imply for the next growth cycle? The debt overhang at the corporate and federal debt should impede the next growth cycle. And if the cyclical rise in housing demand is occurring in recession it can’t be repeated during recovery.

The next economic cycle will be filled with unique tipping points, and no one should assume that policymakers can control or offset them.

END
 

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

Not good: Democrats have now released their roadmap for a one party rule

a must read…

(Phil Kline/Real Clear Politics)

Democrats Have Released A Roadmap To One-Party Rule

 
MONDAY, JAN 25, 2021 – 20:00

By Phil Kline, via Real Clear Politics

The Democrats appear intent on instituting one-party rule in the United States.

They’re trying to use the U.S. Capitol riots as an excuse to criminalize dissent and banish conservative voices from the public sphere, and at the same time they’re hoping to use their temporary, razor-thin majority in Congress to rewrite the rules governing our elections in a way designed to keep the Democratic Party entrenched in power for decades to come.

In the House, Democrats have revived sweeping election reform legislation that died in the Senate during the previous session, perhaps hoping they can browbeat enough Republicans into going along with them. If that happens, the “Grand Old Party” of Abraham Lincoln might as well disband, because Republicans would never have any hope of regaining a congressional majority or controlling the White House under the rules that HR 1 would put in place.

Although the Constitution explicitly places state legislatures in charge of managing federal elections, HR 1 seeks to use the power of the purse to bludgeon the states into conforming to a centralized system pioneered in California and other deep-blue states. Congress can’t technically compel the states to change their voting laws, but seasoned politicians know that the states have become dependent on federal money to run their elections, and can’t afford to pick up the tab themselves.

To make matters worse, HR 1 declares that Congress possesses “ultimate supervisory power over Federal elections” — an extraordinary usurpation of governmental authority that the Founders specifically assigned to the states.

The 2020 election witnessed private interests dictating the manner in which the election was conducted in the nation’s urban cores. Mark Zuckerberg alone poured $419 million into this scheme.

The goal of centralizing power in the hands of the federal government has long been at the heart of liberal politics, and this legislation demonstrates why.

HR 1 would codify the very practices — many of them currently illegal in most states — that created widespread irregularities in the 2020 elections and contributed greatly to public mistrust of the electoral process. In 2020, state and local officials used the COVID-19 pandemic as justification to ignore or deliberately violate state election laws. If HR 1 is enacted, they won’t need any such excuse in 2022 because the states will have no choice but to implement policies such as legalized ballot harvesting, early voting, and universal mail-in voting, as well as repeal of voter ID laws, signature-matching laws, and other ballot security measures.

For example, HR 1 would allow ballot harvesting on steroids. Voters would — for the first time — have the ability to print out their ballots at home, creating a gaping security hole that could easily be exploited by either domestic or foreign interests. The legislation also allows third parties to collect ballots from an unlimited number of absentee voters and submit them through ballot drop boxes, dramatically increasing the risk that vulnerable Americans could be bullied, bribed, or blackmailed for their votes without the protection of election workers.

Under the rules outlined in HR 1, election observers wouldn’t even be able to challenge the legitimacy of ballots without written documentation, making it virtually impossible to document or detect election irregularities.

Nothing in this legislation could plausibly be interpreted as a means of restoring public confidence in our elections — but the reforms establish a clear roadmap to one-party rule. This is especially so when you consider the new proposals for the war on “domestic terror” aimed directly at the free expression of American citizens.

We can only hope that principled Republicans and Democrats will reject this direct assault on American democracy and individual freedom, and resist the institutionalists in both parties who believe the American people need them to protect us from ourselves.

The way to create one-party rule is to control information and control the way a nation selects its leaders. The political left has joined with Big Tech and government careerists in aggressively trying to do both.

end
 
The My Pillow guy: Mike Lindell has been permanently banned from Twitter
 
(zerohedge)

MyPillow CEO Mike Lindell Has Been Permanently Banned From Twitter

 
TUESDAY, JAN 26, 2021 – 7:38

Authored by Mimi Nguyen Ly via The Epoch Times,

Twitter late Monday suspended the account of MyPillow founder and CEO Mike Lindell on its platform.

Users were faced with an error message, “You’re trying to follow user that doesn’t exist,” before the account page simply said that Lindell’s account has been suspended for having violated Twitter rules.

Lindell’s personal Twitter account had over half a million followers before being suspended.

The Twitter account of MyPillow CEO Mike Lindell just moments after it was suspended. (Twitter/realMikeLindell/Screenshot)

The Twitter account of MyPillow CEO Mike Lindell just moments after it was suspended. (Twitter/realMikeLindell/Screenshot)

Lindell repeatedly violated the company’s civic integrity policy, due to which he was suspended, according to a Twitter spokesperson. The policy says, in part: “You may not use Twitter’s services for the purpose of manipulating or interfering in elections or other civic processes. This includes posting or sharing content that may suppress participation or mislead people about when, where, or how to participate in a civic process. In addition, we may label and reduce the visibility of Tweets containing false or misleading information about civic processes in order to provide additional context.”

“The public conversation occurring on Twitter is never more important than during elections and other civic events. Any attempts to undermine the integrity of our service is antithetical to our fundamental rights and undermines the core tenets of freedom of expression, the value upon which our company is based.”

Lindell did not immediately respond to a request for comment from The Epoch Times.

A supporter of former President Donald Trump, Lindell was advocating for election integrity amid allegations of widespread voting irregularities and election fraud in the aftermath of the November 2020 general election, which put him under the media spotlight. Lindell frequently posted political commentary that sometimes questioned the results of the election.

The suspension of Lindell’s Twitter account is the latest in actions taken against Trump and his supporters since the Jan. 6 riots at the U.S. Capitol that resulted violence and a breach of the building.

Trump had repeatedly called for peace and condemned the violence that took place. Despite this, he was banned from Twitter and other social media platforms, including Twitter, and cut off by some banks, while some of his supporters have also been banned by Twitter and have been fired by employers.

Lindell recently made media headlines after having visited the White House to meet with Trump and was spotted holding some mysterious notes that, in part, appeared to refer to “martial law.” It was unclear what the notes were about. Lindell told The Epoch Times that the notes were not official and he was helping deliver them from a lawyer who said it was a suggestion for Trump.

MyPillow CEO Mike Lindell waits outside the West Wing of the White House before entering in Washington, on Jan. 15, 2021. (Drew Angerer/Getty Images)

Lindell is known for his American dream story of an ex-cocaine addict turning his life around and running a successful business, MyPillow.

Bed Bath & Beyond, Kohl’s, and Wayfair announced they would no longer carry products from MyPillow. Lindell said the actions came after groups such as Sleeping Giants pushed companies to stop doing business with him.

Bed Bath & Beyond told The Epoch Times via email that their decision to stop carrying MyPillow was “data-driven and customer-inspired.”

Sleeping Giants, a leftist activist group, shared the news on Twitter about the companies’ decision to discontinue stocking Lindell’s products. The group accused Lindell of having encouraged the breach of the Capitol by calling for election integrity. Sleeping Giants has ongoing campaigns to pressure companies to shun conservative and right-leaning entities. It also shared the news of Lindell’s suspension from Twitter late on Monday.

“These are groups that were hired to attack and crush my companies to cancel MyPillow out. And they’re attacking these people, like Bed Bath & Beyond,” Lindell told NTD News last week. “They succumb to the pressure. And you know, that’s their choice. But you know what, this is the time we all have to stand up against this.”

“This is the time we have to make a stand. We have to make a stand and not back down to media and cancel culture,” he said. “We can’t live in fear this time. We got to all stand together. And I’m not talking politics. I’m talking people.”

Lindell is also facing possible litigation from Dominion Voting Systems over his accusations that their machines and software contributed to election fraud in the general election. According to reports, Dominion sent a letter to Lindell last month warning of an “imminent” defamation lawsuit and telling Lindell to stop “making defamatory claims against Dominion.”

Lindell said he hopes Dominion will sue him so that he can present evidence.

end

First shot across the bow:  As promised Manchin Dem. from West Virginia..a very Red state would never go for the change in the filibuster. He is joined by Sinema and that allows the sharing of senate rule.

(zerohedge)

McConnell Caves On Preserving Filibuster After Two Democrats Signal ‘No’ On Eliminating

 
TUESDAY, JAN 26, 2021 – 8:49

Senate GOP leader Mitch McConnell (KY) has relented on a key demand that Democrats preserve the filibuster, after two Democratic senators – Joe Manchin (WV) and Kyrsten Sinema (AZ) – said they were against tossing out the policy which allows the minority party to block legislation by requiring 60 votes to advance most measures.

McConnell’s refusal to ditch the filibuster had left the power-sharing agreement in a stalemate, as Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) had rebuffed the idea of a guarantee, according to Bloomberg.

While both sides claimed victory, McConnell’s position was becoming untenable and risked provoking the Democrats into doing the opposite of what he wanted and eroding the filibuster out of the gate. There’s also potential risk down the line if Republicans engage in maximum obstruction and anger Manchin and Sinema.

So far, on cabinet nominees and on scheduling the impeachment trial, the two sides have managed to avoid a partisan impasse. For instance, Antony Blinken, President Joe Biden’s nominee to be secretary of state, is to be confirmed by the Senate at noon on Tuesday. –Bloomberg

“The legislative filibuster was a key part of the foundation beneath the Senate’s last 50-50 power-sharing agreement in 2001,” wrote McConnell in a statement. “With these assurances, I look forward to moving ahead with a power-sharing agreement modeled on that precedent.”

Schumer’s team wasn’t quite so cordial – saying in a statement: “We’re glad Senator McConnell threw in the towel and gave up on his ridiculous demand. We look forward to organizing the Senate under Democratic control and start getting big, bold things done for the American people.”

Manchin and Sinema signaling that they won’t vote to kill the filibuster essentially allowed McConnell to save face.

On Monday, Manchin told reporters that he “does not support throwing away the filibuster under any condition,” while a spokesman for Sinema said she was also against getting rid of the rule.

As Bloomberg notes, Manchin’s and Sinema’s opposition to killing the filibuster indicates just how tenuous the Democrats’ control of the chamber is – as they need all 50 Democrats in lockstep to overcome the 50-50 split (with Vice President Kamala Harris being the tie-breaker). Now, Democrats will need 10 Senate Republicans to join them on most bills unless a simple majority is needed.

Under the agreement in place in 2001, the last time the Senate was evenly split, both parties had an equal number of committee seats equal budgets for committee Republicans and Democrats, and the ability of both leaders to advance legislation out of committees that are deadlocked. But Democrats will hold the chairmanships and Schumer will set the agenda for the floor.

Some issues can be passed with a simple majority via a balky process known as budget reconciliation, but that method has limits on what can be included and when. Already, Democrats are weighing whether to use the process to bypass Republicans on a major virus relief package Schumer wants to send to the White House by mid-March, with a follow-on package later in the year. –Bloomberg

Of note, the Senate has only been evenly divided three times in US history; 1881, 1953 and 2001.

Democrats hoping to use the budget reconciliation process to bypass Republicans on the virus relief package may run into trouble without Manchin and Sinema – who are trying to cobble together a bipartisan package which would be smaller than Biden’s proposed $1.9 billion deal. If nothing materializes before the Feb. 8 start of former President Trump’s impeachment trial, Democrats could decide to go it alone.

The package continues to shrink, according to Goldman and JPMorgan anyway. As we noted on Monday, Goldman recently slashed its estimate of the final size of the realistic Biden stimulus to just $1.1 trillion from $1.9 trillion, while JPMorgan has gone even further and now expects a mere $900 billion to pass, or a carbon copy of the bipartisan December stimulus (and it will be quite delayed at that as well).

END

Trump announces the creation of two pro Trump think tanks

(Hoft/Gateway Pundit)

President Trump’s Team to Announce the Creation of Two Pro-Trump Think Tanks Today

Those close to the President are reporting that today two pro-Trump think tanks are going to be created. 

These think tanks are in the works and will be announced today:

TRENDING: President Trump Announces ‘Office of the Former President’ – Will Carry On the Agenda of the Trump Administration

Axios reported yesterday:

Russ Vought, who led Donald Trump’s Office of Management and Budget, plans to announce two pro-Trump organizations Tuesday, aiming to provide the ideological ammunition to sustain Trump’s political movement after his departure from the White House.

Why it matters: The Center for American Restoration and an advocacy arm, America Restoration Action, will try to keep cultural issues that animated Trump’s presidency on the public agenda, according to people familiar with the matter.

What we’re hearing: Vought is teaming up in the effort with Rachel Semmel, who ran communications for Trump’s OMB, and Ashlea Frazier, his former chief of staff.

  • The Center for American Restoration will be organized as a 501(c)(3) nonprofit, and explore issues including voter fraud and the role of big technology and social media companies in disseminating information.
  • America Restoration Action will be set up as a 501(c)(4) “social welfare” group, with more of a focus on policy advocacy.

This is all good since the Republican Party in the President’s absence has made itself a subset of the Democrat Party rather than a voice for the 75 million Americans who legitimately voted for Donald Trump.  The current Republican leadership is more concerned about befriending the corrupt and criminal Democrats than standing up for America.

Thank G-d President Trump is moving forward for America.

END

Conservative Journalist Andy Ngo Flees The Country Over Antifa Death Threats

 
TUESDAY, JAN 26, 2021 – 14:05

Conservative journalist Andy Ngo has fled the United States after receiving death threats from Antifa terrorists.

 

Ngo following his June, 2019 assault by Antifa

The Portland-based journalist – a regular presence documenting violent Antifa activity in the Pacific Northwest (and having been assaulted for his coverage) – has fled to the United Kingdom.

“My hometown of Portland, Oregon is the epicenter of American Antifa,” Ngo told Sky News Australia in a Saturday interview. Ngo noted tthat US politicians who rightly condemned the January 6 riots at the Capitol were “at best silent last year when my city was literally under siege.”

“At worse they actually promoted some of the crowd funded campaigns,” he added.

Ngo described the increasingly violent death threats he’s received, telling Sky “For a number of months now, there’s just been increasing threats of violence against me, promises by Antifa extremists to kill me.”

“It’s pained me a lot, temporarily having to leave the country and home that settled my parents who came there as political refugees,” he added.

Ngo, editor-at-large of The Post Millennial, was beaten and robbed by Antifa terrorists in July, 2019, after which his assailants – apparently not the “Unity” brand of Democrats – soaked him in liquids which police believed to be quick-drying cement. He was hospitalized following the incident.

As RT notes:

Some Antifa members have condemned Ngo for “enabling fascism” and exposing them to danger by reporting their names and posting their arrest photos. He was vilified by Rolling Stone magazine, which branded him as a “right-wing troll” and said he tries to “demonize” Antifa.

Hatred towards Ngo apparently escalated even further with the upcoming publication of his book, ‘Unmasked’, which chronicles Antifa’s history of violence and its “radical plan to destroy democracy.”

Powell’s City of Books, the Portland retailer which is touted as the world’s largest independent bookstore, was targeted by protesters after saying earlier this month that it would refuse to stock Ngo’s tome on its shelves but would continue selling it online. Demonstrations outside the flagship Powell’s store in Portland were sometimes violent and dragged on for at least a week, forcing the massive retailer to close early and evacuate employees and customers out the back door.

Ngo’s upcoming book Unmasked – scheduled for a February 2 release, is the number one seller in several political categories on Amazon.com.

END

Texas just gave the middle finger to Biden:

Federal judge temporarily blocks Biden deportation freeze

(zerohedge)

Federal Judge Temporarily Blocks Biden Deportation Freeze After Texas Challenge

January 26, 2021 Updated: January 26, 2021
 

A federal judge in Texas temporarily blocked an executive order issued by President Joe Biden to halt the deportation of certain immigrants for 100 days.

U.S. District Judge Drew Tipton, an appointee of former President Donald Trump, issued a temporary restraining order on Jan. 26, blocking Biden’s policy nationwide for 14 days after Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton challenged it in court.

The order is a setback to the Biden administration, which has proposed far-reaching changes, including a plan to legalize about 11 million undocumented immigrants living in the United States illegally. Last week, the administration also issued an order that halts all U.S.–Mexico border wall construction.

During former President Donald Trump’s four years in office, Democrats and immigration activists often filed lawsuits in an attempt to halt Trump’s border wall construction, among other immigration provisions. With Paxton’s lawsuit, it’s likely that Republicans may do the same—especially with hundreds of judges appointed by Trump during his term in office.

Paxton, in a statement on Twitter, hailed the victory, saying, “Texas is the FIRST state in the nation to bring a lawsuit against the Biden Admin. AND WE WON.”

“Within 6 days of Biden’s inauguration, Texas has HALTED his illegal deportation freeze. *This* was a seditious left-wing insurrection,” the Republican continued. “And my team and I stopped it.

US border wall construction

 

A loader grades land near a section of privately-built border wall under construction near Mission, Texas, on Dec. 11, 2019. (John Moore/Getty Images)

David Pekoske, the acting Homeland Security secretary, issued a directive on Jan. 20 directing authorities to focus on national security and public safety threats as well as anyone who was taken into custody after entering the U.S. illegally after Nov. 1.

White House officials didn’t immediately respond to a request by The Epoch Times for comment.

The Biden administration argued in court that Paxton’s lawsuit is unenforceable because “an outgoing administration cannot contract away that power for an incoming administration.”

Pekoske had said the deportation freeze would allow the DHS to “ensure that its resources are dedicated to responding to the most pressing challenges that the United States faces.” That includes the “immediate operational challenges at the southwest border in the midst of the most serious global public health crisis in a century,” Pekoske said.

“Throughout this interim period, DHS will continue to enforce our immigration laws.”

But last week, Paxton, a Republican, said the DHS failed to consult with Texas before making its immigration policy changes, as is required per an agreement between Texas and the agency.

“Border states like Texas pay a particularly high price when the federal government fails to faithfully execute our country’s immigration laws,” Paxton said last week, adding that an “attempted halt on almost all deportations would increase the cost to Texas caused by illegal immigration.”

Like Paxton, several former Trump DHS officials expressed alarm in recent days over Biden’s orders to rescind some immigration rules.

“With the stroke of a pen, President Biden made this country less safe,” former U.S. Customs and Border Protection Commissioner Mark Morgan told Breitbart News on Jan. 23. “It’s pure politics over public safety.”

Separately, a Democratic member of Congress confirmed that border wall construction along the U.S.–Mexico border was to be halted on Jan. 26, per one of Biden’s orders.

end

iv) Swamp commentaries

An absolute joke. Partisan Leahy a democrat to preside over the phony Trump impeachment trial

Stieber/Epoch Times

Sen. Leahy To Preside Over Trump’s Impeachment Trial

 
MONDAY, JAN 25, 2021 – 18:30

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours)

 

Sen. Patrick Leahy (D-Vt.) arrives at the US Capitol on Jan. 25, 2021. (Brendan Smialowski/AFP via Getty Images)

Sen. Patrick Leahy (D-Vt.), president pro tempore of the Senate, will preside over next month’s impeachment trial of former President Donald Trump, Leahy said on Jan. 25.

Leahy is 80. Both parties traditionally choose their eldest member to serve in the pro tempore role, which is essentially a backup for the president of the Senate, whenever they gain a majority in the body.

The president pro tempore has historically presided over Senate impeachment trials of non-presidents,” Leahy said in a statement. “When presiding over an impeachment trial, the president pro tempore takes an additional special oath to do impartial justice according to the Constitution and the laws. It is an oath that I take extraordinarily seriously.

“I consider holding the office of the president pro tempore and the responsibilities that come with it to be one of the highest honors and most serious responsibilities of my career,” he said. “When I preside over the impeachment trial of former President Donald Trump, I will not waver from my constitutional and sworn obligations to administer the trial with fairness, in accordance with the Constitution and the laws.”

The U.S. Constitution states that the Supreme Court’s chief justice shall preside when the president of the United States is tried in an impeachment trial. But once Trump left office last week, that threw Chief Justice John Roberts’s role into question; Roberts had presided over the first impeachment trial.

 

Chief Justice John Roberts announces the results of the vote on the second article of impeachment during impeachment proceedings against President Donald Trump in Washington on Feb. 5, 2020. (Senate Television via Getty Images)

Reports suggested that Roberts didn’t want to preside over a trial of the former president. Supreme Court spokespersons didn’t immediately respond to a request by The Epoch Times for comment, nor did spokespersons for Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) or Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.).

Dozens of Republicans have voiced opposition to holding an impeachment trial for a former president; some have said that Roberts’s apparent reluctance to act as presiding judge is significant.

“If Justice Roberts won’t preside over this sham ‘impeachment,’ then why would it ever be considered legitimate?” Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) said in a tweet last week.

The House alleges in its single article of impeachment that Trump incited the Jan. 6 breach of the U.S. Capitol. The Senate expects to start the trial during the week of Feb. 8.

Follow Zachary on Twitter: @zackstieber
 
 
end
 
The House finally delivers impeachment articles to the Senate.  Biden does not think Trump will be convicted. The crook should have stopped this nonsense immediately
 
 
(zerohedge)

House Delivers Impeachment Article To Senate But Biden Doesn’t Think Trump Will Be Convicted

 
MONDAY, JAN 25, 2021 – 22:50

The House delivered its single impeachment article against former President Donald Trump to the Senate on Monday, setting the stage for a February 8 trial.

Just three Senate Republicans were present during the formal delivery of the article; Mitch McConnell, Mitt Romney and Roger Marshall.

Senators will get sworn in as jurors on Tuesday, according to a previous statement by Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY), while both the impeachment managers who will argue the House Democrats’ case, and Trump’s defense team, will have time to draft and file legal briefs, according to CNBC.

The managers, headed by lead manager Rep. Jamie Raskin, D-Md., carried the article across the Capitol to the Senate on Monday in masked pairs as part of a formal procession. As Raskin read the charge against Trump, a smattering of senators wearing face coverings looked on from within the chamber. –CNBC

Ironically, Trump – the only president to be impeached twice by the House – is unlikely to be convicted according to none other than President Biden, who told CNN he believed the outcome would be different if Trump had six months left in office – but that he doubts the required 17 GOP senators will vote to convict.

Which begs the question if the entire exercise is moot, then why do it as it will only further polarize the already deeply divided US society and certainly not help the “unity” that Biden is allegedly striving to achieve.

Trump was charged by the House with incitement of insurrection at the US Capitol on Jan. 6 by, as House Democrats claim, ‘falsely claiming that widespread election fraud cost him the 2020 election,’ and then encouraging his supporters to show up and challenge the electoral college count. According to the article, Trump “threatened the integrity of the democratic system, interfered with the peaceful transition of power, and imperiled a coequal branch of Government,” and “thereby betrayed his trust as President, to the manifest injury of the people of the United States.”

South Carolina attorney Butch Bowers will defend Trump during the trial, while the nine House impeachment managers are Democratic Reps.Raskin, Diana DeGette of Colorado, David Cicilline of Rhode Island, Joaquin Castro of Texas, Eric Swalwell and Ted Lieu of California, Stacey Plaskett, the delegate for the U.S. Virgin Islands, Madeleine Dean of Pennsylvania and Joe Neguse of Colorado. (via CNBC).

END

These 5 Republicans will be toast by the time 2022 rolls around.

They had better watch their backs

 

Just five GOP senators vote Trump impeachment trial is constitutional
The Senate sent a strong signal Tuesday that there are not nearly enough votes to convict President Trump in an impeachment trial when only five GOP senators rejected an effort by Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) to declare the looming trial unconstitutional. 

 

The Senate voted 55-45 to set aside Paul’s motion, with all but five GOP senators siding with Paul. GOP Sens. Mitt Romney (Utah), Ben Sasse (Neb.), Susan Collins (Maine), Lisa Murkowski (Alaska) and Pat Toomey (Pa.) voted with Democrats to table Paul’s point of order.

The vote is the clearest sign yet that Trump is heading toward a second acquittal and offers an early insight into which Republicans are lining up behind an argument that his second impeachment trial isn’t constitutional

 
 
end
 
Another joke!! Yellen confirmed as USA treasury as we will now have the binding of the Fed and Treasury together
 
 
(zerohedge)
 

Janet Yellen Confirmed As US Treasury Secretary

 
MONDAY, JAN 25, 2021 – 18:03

Janet Yellen has been confirmed as the next Treasury secretary, after a simple majority of senators voted to confirm her. She is the first US Treasury secretary and is the former Fed chair, which is appropriate in a time when the Fed and Treasury are now inexorably linked as part of helicopter money which requires the constant cooperation of the debt printing and debt monetizing branches of universal basic income enabling government, which is where we find ourselves right now (yes, it’s a joke).

In addition to attempting to taper the biggest ponzi scheme in history by hiking interest rates during her tenure – a process which ended catastrophically in 2018, Janet Yellen is best known for her June 2017 comment: “I Don’t See a Financial Crisis Occurring In Our Lifetimes.” Two and a half years later, the world suffered the biggest financial crisis since the Great Depression. Which of course was great news for all those who saw through her lies and stacked up on non-printable assets such as this one…

… which is currently the best investment of the 21st century.

With her ascent to the Treasury Secretary post, which is also the top regulator of all US banks and financial companies, spending on Yellen speeches in the 2018-2020 period has just become the best return on investment for the dozens of firms (and especially Citadel) which paid Yellen $7.3 million in the past two years, and to whom the new Treasury Secretary now owes a “favor.”

And while these firms can expect preferential treatment during the next crisis, everyone else gets a souvenir too: dollar bills bearing Yellen’s signature.

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

China’s gift for the Biden inauguration is a conspiracy theory about Covid-19’s US origins

Hua Chunying, a spokesperson for China’s foreign ministry, said on Monday (Jan. 18) at a press conference that the US should open Fort Detrick, a military medical research base in Maryland, for further investigation as a possible origin of Covid-19. “I’d like to stress that if the United States truly respects facts, it should open the biological lab at Fort Detrick, give more transparency to issues like its 200-plus overseas bio-labs, invite WHO [the World Health Organization] experts to conduct origin-tracing in the United States, and respond to the concerns from the international community with real actions,” she said…  https://qz.com/1959825/china-renews-its-push-on-a-conspiracy-theory-about-covid-19/

This Chocolate Brand Is Closing All 128 Stores in North America – Belgian luxury chocolate brand Godiva announced it is exiting brick-and-mortar operations in North America…

https://www.msn.com/en-us/foodanddrink/foodnews/this-chocolate-brand-is-closing-all-128-stores-in-north-america/ar-BB1d50WC

Fauci: Wearing two masks is better than one https://trib.al/bj0UBW0

 

Wearing three masks is better than two; wearing four masks is better than three…and wearing ∞ masks is better than ∞-1 masks.

 

California lifts regional stay-at-home order amid ‘positive signs’ of slower spread https://t.co/7Bhmw9r9Sk

 

@JackPosobiec: Union leaders have been calling Biden like crazy.  ‘Wall, pipelines, gas, coal, etc…all of these work sites are closing on a daily basis thanks to his EO’s…they’re being told to call back in a few weeks, some calls aren’t even answered,’ says WH official

@charliekirk11: Executive Orders: Clinton—2 in his first week in office

Bush—2 in his first two weeks in office

Obama—5 in his first week in office

Trump—4 in his first week in office

Biden—30+ in his first five days in office

Remind me again which president governs like a dictator?

 

Video of Biden apparently signing blank pages of paper/EOs: https://twitter.c

W Press Sec @AriFleischer: After months of being told it was racist to refer to COVID as a “Chinese virus” the WP refers to its new strains as “British and South African variants.”  So you can use the name of the nation where it comes from, so long as that nation is not China.  Got it

 

@NextRevFNC: PART 2 of @SteveHiltonx’s special investigation into the origins of the coronavirus

[Fauci’s commission reportedly funded Wuhan lab’s research to make coronavirus more lethal in 2017.]

https://twitter.com/NextRevFNC/status/1353544951758512130

 

@LevineJonathan: The Washington Post flat out deleted an anecdote about Kamala Harris joking about prison inmates begging for water from a 2019 profile

https://reason.com/2021/01/22/the-washington-post-memory-holed-kamala-harris-bad-joke-about-inmates-begging-for-food-and-water/

 

@ProfMJCleveland: Jimmy Carter pardoned Jefferson Davis, the leader of the slave owning Confederacy, in case any member of Congress was looking for an ex-President to impeach and convict.

 

Chief Justice John Roberts not expected to preside over Trump impeachment trial

The chief justice of the United States is constitutionally required to oversee impeachment trials of sitting presidents. But it’s not clear whether the chief justice is required to oversee a trial of a former president…

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/leahy-to-preside-over-senate-impeachment-trial

 

Senator Rand Paul @RandPaul: I object to this unconstitutional sham of an “impeachment” trial and I will force a vote on whether the Senate can hold a trial of a private citizen.  Republicans should reject any process that involves a partisan Democrat in the chair instead of the Chief Justice.

    If Chief Justice Roberts can’t be bothered to come over for the so-called impeachment, makes you wonder if this exercise is constitutional at all.

 

Biden takes questions from mostly pre-selected reporters at first formal press conference as POTUS https://t.co/pRgoVy6VNW

 

@TheBabylonBee: In Hard-Hitting Press Conference, Press Demands to Know Biden’s Favorite Disney Princess    https://t.co/vLKqM47s0R

 

@DarrenJBeattie on Tucker Carlson: “We see these journalists are not even acting as meaningful journalists. What they’re doing is acting as commissars & Neo-Stasi effectively in order to crush the rebellion of the American people against their corrupt ruling class.” https://t.co/NvuFqUQwWk

Well that is all for today

I will see you WEDNESDAY night.

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