FEB 3//GOLD DOWN 20 CENTS TO $1833/75//SILVER UP 38 CENTS TO $26.79//GOLD TONNAGE STANDING AT THE COMEX: 100 TONNES/SILVER AT 9.525 MILLION OZ//CORONAVIRUS UPDATE/VACCINE UPDATES//SILVER COMMENTARIES//SUPER MARIO DRAGHI TO BECOME NEW PM FOR ITALY//NEW BILL TO END THE USA 2ND AMENDMENT TO BEAR ARMS//MARK MORGAN: USA BORDER PROTECTIONS DECIMATED// USA DATA POINTS/SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT///IRAN OPERATING TWO CENTRIFUGES: WILL HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON SHORTLY//

GOLD:$1833.75 DOWN  $0.20   The quote is London spot price

Silver:$26.79. UP  $0.38   London spot price ( cash market)

your data…

Closing access prices:  London spot

i)Gold : $1834.00  LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

ii)SILVER:  $26.87//LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

Editorial of The New York Sun | February 1, 2021

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COMEX DATA

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

receiving today:234/660

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: FEBRUARY 2021 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,830.500000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 02/02/2021 DELIVERY DATE: 02/04/2021
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
072 C GOLDMAN 336 4
118 H MACQUARIE FUT 50
132 C SG AMERICAS 9
323 H HSBC 6
332 H STANDARD CHARTE 36
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 3
555 C BNP PARIBAS SEC 1
555 H BNP PARIBAS SEC 4
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 105
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 107
661 C JP MORGAN 100 115
661 H JP MORGAN 119
686 C STONEX FINANCIA 4
690 C ABN AMRO 1 3
700 C UBS 150
709 C BARCLAYS 51
709 H BARCLAYS 79
800 C MAREX SPEC 12 3
880 C CITIGROUP 19
905 C ADM 1 2
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 660 660
MONTH TO DATE: 20,675

issued:100

GOLDMAN SACHS STOPPED 4 CONTRACTS.

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  FEB. CONTRACT: 660 NOTICE(S) FOR 66,000 OZ  (2.053 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  20,675 NOTICES FOR 2,067,500 OZ  (64.308 tonnes) 

SILVER//FEB CONTRACT

20 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 100,000  OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month: 1392 for 6,960,000  oz

BITCOIN MORNING QUOTE  $36,255   UP 543

BITCOIN AFTERNOON QUOTE.:$36,932  UP 707 DOLLARS .

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

GLD AND SLV INVENTORIES:

WITH GOLD DOWN $0.20  AND NO PHYSICAL TO BE FOUND ANYWHERE:

WITH ALL REFINER CLOSED//MEXICO ORDERING ALL MINES SHUT:   WHERE ARE THEY GETTING THE “PHYSICAL?

GLD: 1,257.50 TONNES OF GOLD//

WITH SILVER UP $0.38 TODAY: AND WITH NO SILVER AROUND

I am totally flabbergasted:

a  mind boggling 56.784 million oz “deposit” into the SLV AT 3 PM

A “WITHDRAWAL”  7.99 million oz from the slv at 5 pm!!

this was done through a lease from JPMorgan to the SLV

the silver never leaves JPMorgan  what a massive fraud!!

INVENTORY RESTS AT:

SLV: 669.357  MILLION OZ./

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Let us have a look at the data for today

THE COMEX OI IN SILVER ROSE BY A HUGE SIZED 5046 CONTRACTS FROM 184,832 DOWN TO 179,789, AND FURTHER FROM OUR NEW RECORD OF 244,710, (FEB 25/2020. THE LOSS IN OI OCCURRED WITH OUR STRONG $2.81 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. IT SEEMS THAT THE LOSS IN COMEX OI IS  DUE TO CONSIDERABLE BANKER AND ALGO  SHORT COVERING..  COUPLED AGAINST AN ATMOSPHERIC EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL. WE ALSO HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION, AND A HUGE GAIN IN STANDING FOR SILVER OUNCES STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR FEB.  WE HAD A STRONG NET GAIN IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 2,176 CONTRACTS  (SEE CALCULATIONS BELOW).

WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A HUGE  NUMBER OF  COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE:  5802,, AS WE HAD THE FOLLOWING ISSUANCE:  MARCH  5802 FOR ZERO ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE 5802 CONTRACTS. THE BANKERS ARE NOW BEING BITTEN BY THOSE SERIAL FORWARDS (EFP’S CIRCULATING IN LONDON)AS THEY ARE NOW BEING EXERCISED AND COMING BACK TO NEW YORK FOR REDEMPTION OF METAL.  THE COST TO SERVICE THESE SERIAL FORWARDS IS HIGH TO OUR BANKERS  BUT THEY HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO ISSUE A FEW OF THEM!

HISTORY OF SILVER OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR THE PAST 26 MONTHS.

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

7.32     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

2.630     MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOV.

20.970   MILLION OZ  FINAL STANDING IN DEC

5.075     MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JAN

1.480    MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN FEB

23.005  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAR

4.660  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR APRIL

45.220 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAY

2.205  MILLION OF FINAL STANDING FOR JUNE

86.470 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JULY.

6.475 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN AUGUST

55.400 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN SEPT

8.900 MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT.

3.950 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN NOV.

46.685 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR DEC.

6.890 MILLION FINAL STANDING FOR JAN 2021

9.525  MILLION OZ INTITAL STANDING FOR FEB 2021

TUESDAY, AGAIN OUR CROOKS USED COPIOUS PAPER IN ORDER TO LIQUIDATE SILVER’S PRICE…AND THEY WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL $2.81) ).. AND, OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS WERE   UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE  ANY SILVER LONGS AS WE HAD A SMALL GAIN IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES (756 CONTRACTS). NO DOUBT THE TOTAL GAIN IN OI IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES WERE DUE TO i)BANKER/ALGO SHORT COVERING.  WE ALSO HAD  ii)  A MONSTER ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS 2) A STRONG INCREASE STANDING IN SILVER OZ  STANDING  FOR FEB, iii) STRONG COMEX LOSS AND iv) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION. YOU CAN BET THE FARM THAT OUR BANKERS  ARE DESPERATE TO LIQUIDATE THEIR HUGE SHORT POSITIONS IN SILVER..

WE ARE BEGINNING TO WITNESS A LACK OF EXCHANGE FOR GOLD PHYSICALS UNDERWRITTEN DUE TO PREMIUMS STARTING TO REAPPEAR IN THE FUTURE PRICE OF GOLD VS LONDON SPOT. THE COST TO THE BANKERS IS JUST TOO GREAT TO ENGAGE IN THESE VEHICLES ONCE THIS OCCURS.

We have now switched to SILVER for our spreaders!!

FOR DETAILS ON THE SPREADING EXERCISE HERE IS A BRIEF OUTLINE:

SPREADING OPERATIONS/NOW SWITCHING TO SILVER  (WE SWITCH OVER TO GOLD ON NOV  1)

SPREADING OPERATION FOR OUR NEWCOMERS:

FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS:

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED IN SILVER  AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF MAR.

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEW, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE SPREADERS AND THE CRIMINAL ELEMENT BEHIND IT:

 HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR GOLD..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR GOLD.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

.

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO SILVER AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB. HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAR FOR SILVER:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF FEB. BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (MAR), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

FEB

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY /FOR MONTH OF FEB:

24,349 CONTRACTS (FOR 3 TRADING DAY(S) TOTAL 24,349 CONTRACTS) OR 121.745 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 8116 CONTRACTS OR 40.582 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF FEB: 121.745 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON.

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF FEB: 121.745. MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON.

JAN EFP ACCUMULATION FINAL:  113.735 MILLION OZ

FEB EFP ACCUMULATION FOR FAR:   121.745 MILLION OZ (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

RESULT: WE HAD A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 5046, WITH OUR  $2.81 FALL IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ///TUESDAY.THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 5,802 CONTRACTS WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS.

TODAY WE GAINED AN SMALL SIZED 756 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES (DESPITE OUR $2.81 FALL IN PRICE)//

THE TALLY//EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

i.e 5802 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH A STRONG SIZED DECREASE OF 5046 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND HAPPENED WITH OUR $2.81 FALL IN PRICE OF SILVER/AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $26.41 // TUESDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY. 

FOR THE NEW FEB.  DELIVERY MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 20 NOTICE(S) FOR 100,000 OZ OF SILVER.

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018. AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.70//TODAY’S RECORD OF 244,705 WAS SET WITH A PRICE OF: 18.91 (FEB 25/2020)

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

GOLD

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A STRONG 8253 CONTRACTS TO 520,011AND FURTHER FROM  OUR NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE STRONG SIZED FALL IN COMEX OI OCCURRED WITH OUR   LOSS IN PRICE  OF $27.60 /// COMEX GOLD TRADING// TUESDAY. WE PROBABLY HAD SOME BANKER/ALGO SHORT COVERING  ACCOMPANYING OUR GOOD EXCHANGE FOR  PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. WE  HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION. WE LOST A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD OZ. STANDING   AT THE COMEX TO 100.027 TONNES FOR FEBRUARY..AS WE HAVE A LACK OF PHYSICAL GOLD OVER HERE!...THIS ALL HAPPENED WITH OUR  FALL IN PRICE OF $27.60. 

WE HAD A VOLUME OF 5    4 -GC CONTRACTS//OPEN INTEREST  5//

WE HAD A SMALL LOSS  OF 756 CONTRACTS  (3.780 TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 7505 CONTRACTS:

CONTRACT . FEB:0,  APRIL:  7505  ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO//TOTAL: 7505.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 520,011. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EXCHANGE DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 748 CONTRACTS: 8253 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 7505 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI LOSS OF 748 CONTRACTS OR 2.32 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:

WE HAD A STRONG SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (7505) ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI  (8253 OI): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES:  560 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1 ) CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING AND CONSIDERABLE ALGO SHORT COVERING ,2.)STRONG DECREASE STANDING //  AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR THE FRONT FEB. MONTH RISING TO 100.027 TONNES3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION// ;4) STRONG COMEX OI LOSS  AND 5) STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL  ...ALL OF THIS WAS COUPLED WITH OUR LOSS IN GOLD PRICE TRADING//TUESDAY//$27.60.

WE ARE BEGINNING TO WITNESS A LACK OF EXCHANGE FOR GOLD PHYSICALS UNDERWRITTEN DUE TO PREMIUMS STARTING TO REAPPEAR IN THE FUTURE PRICE OF GOLD VS LONDON SPOT. THE COST TO THE BANKERS IS JUST TOO GREAT TO ENGAGE IN THESE VEHICLES ONCE THIS OCCURS.

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2020 INCLUDING TODAY

FEB

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF FEB : 14,156, CONTRACTS OR 1,415,600 oz OR 44.03 TONNES (3 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 4719 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 3 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 44.03 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2019, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 44.03/3550 x 100% TONNES =1.24% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO DATE:
JANUARY: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)
FEB  :  44.03 TONNES SO FAR

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 5046 CONTRACTS FROM 184,832 DOWN TO 179,789 AND FURTHER FROM OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 3/4 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

THE STRONG SIZED GAIN IN OI SILVER COMEX WAS PRIMARILY DUE TO 1) SOME BANKER SHORT COVERING//ALGO SHORT COVERING , 2) A HUGE ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (SEE BELOW), 3) A HUMONGOUS INCREASE  STANDING  FOR SILVER  AT THE COMEX FOR FEB., AND 4) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION 

EFP ISSUANCE 5802 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 MARCH:  5802  ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 5802 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI LOSS OF 5046 CONTRACTS TO THE 5802 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S WE OBTAIN A SMALL SIZED GAIN OF 756 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 3.780 MILLION  OZ, OCCURRED WITH OUR $2.56 LOSS IN PRICE///

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL..THE EVIDENCE IS CLEAR: HUGE AMOUNTS OF PHYSICAL STANDING FOR BOTH  SILVER AND GOLD .

(report Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)WEDNESDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 16.38 PTS OR .46%   //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 58.76 PTS .20%    /The Nikkei closed UP 284.33 POINTS OR 1.00%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .90%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN AT 6.4587 /Oil UP TO 55.171 dollars per barrel for WTI and 58.08 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.4587. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.4628 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS //TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED//CORONAVIRUS/PANDEMIC/TRUMP TESTS POSITIVE FOR COVID 19  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY BY A STRONG 8253 CONTRACTS TO 521,319 MOVING FURTHER FROM THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020).  AND THIS STRONG COMEX DECREASE OCCURRED WITH OUR FALL OF $27.60 IN GOLD PRICING /TUESDAY’S COMEX TRADING/)… WE ALSO HAD A GOOD EFP ISSUANCE (7505 CONTRACTS).   WE  ALSO PROBABLY HAD  1)  CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING,  2)   ZERO  LONG LIQUIDATION,  AND 3)  SMALL DECREASE STANDING AT THE GOLD  COMEX//FEB. DELIVERY MONTH(100.0242 TONNES) (SEE BELOW) …  AS WE ENGINEERED A VERY SMALL SIZED LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 748 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE LATELY WITNESSED THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL….. AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS.

(SEE BELOW)

WE  HAD 5    4 -GC VOLUME//open interest RAISES TO 5

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JAN..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A GOOD SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 7505 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  ; FEB// ’21  0 AND APRIL:  7505 ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 7505  CONTRACTS.

YOU WILL FIND THAT WHEN WE HAVE A GOOD PREMIUM IN THE FUTURES/SPOT, THEN THE NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS DECLINE IN NUMBERS.  THE COST IS JUST TOO MUCH FOR THEM TO ISSUE. TODAY THAT PREMIUM WAS SMALL AND THUS A LITTLE MORE THAN USUAL OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WERE ISSUED.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A SMALL 756 TOTAL CONTRACTS  IN THAT 7505 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE LOST A GOOD SIZED  COMEX OI  OF 8253.  WE HAVE A HUGE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR FEB (100.0242 TONNES) FOLLOWING OUR STRONG LEVEL OF JAN 2021 GOLD CONTRACTS STANDING FOR DELIVERY. ((6.500 TONNES).  IF YOU INCLUDE  NOVEMBER’S HUGE 34.7 TONNES, AND DEC. 93.589 OUR COMEX IS OFFICIALLY UNDER ASSAULT.

THE BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT FELL $27.60)., AND WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING ANY LONGS  AS THE TOTAL GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES REGISTERED 1.741 TONNES, ACCOMPANYING OUR HUGE GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR FEB (100.0242 TONNES)..

NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES :: 748 CONTRACTS OR  74800 OZ OR  2.32  TONNES

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT COMMODITY FUTURES OPEN INTEREST SHOULD APPROXIMATE 3% OF TOTAL PRODUCTION.  IN GOLD THE WORLD PRODUCES AROUND 3500 TONNES PER YEAR BUT ONLY 2200 TONNES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE WEST (THUS EXCLUDING RUSSIA, CHINA ETC..WHO KEEP 100% OF THEIR PRODUCTION)

THUS IN GOLD WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:  520,011 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS X 100 OZ PER CONTRACT = 52.00 MILLION OZ/32,150 OZ PER TONNE =  1617 TONNES

THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST REPRESENTS 1617/2200 OR 73.51% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF GOLD.

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY:138,644 contracts// volume very poor/

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  248,608 contracts//  volume: poor //most of our traders have left for London

FEB 3 /2021

INITIAL STANDINGS FOR FEB COMEX GOLD
Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
nil OZ
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz 32,118.849 oz

Brinks

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz
nil
Oz
No of oz served (contracts) today
660 notice(s)
66,000 OZ
(2.053 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)
11,483 contracts
1,148,300 oz)
35.70 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
20,675 notices
2,067,500 OZ
64.308 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz

We had 1 deposits into the dealer

into Brinks dealer: 32,118.849 oz
total deposit: 32,118.849   oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had  0 deposits into the customer account

we had  0 gold withdrawals from the customer account:

We had 1  kilobar transactions

ADJUSTMENTS:  dealer to customer Brinks and JPM

Brinks:  678.728 oz  (dealer to customer)
JPMorgan: 1832.607 oz

adj: customer to dealer:

Scotia:  2494.540 oz

The front month of FEB registered a total of 12,143 CONTRACTS FOR A LOSS OF 3204 CONTRACTS.  WE

HAD 2083 CONTRACTS FILED ON TUESDAY SO WE LOST A LARGE 1121 CONTRACTS OR 112,100 OZ MORPHED INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS AND RECEIVED A FIAT BONUS FOR THEIR EFFORTS. I GUESS THERE IS NO GOLD TO BE FOUND OVER HERE AND THUS THE SEARCH FOR GOLD INTENSIFIES OVER IN LONDON.

MARCH GAINED 246 contracts to stand at 2546

APRIL LOST 5020 contracts to stand at 405,061

We had 660 notice(s) filed today for 66,000 oz

FOR THE FEB 2020 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and  100 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 660  contract(s) of which 115  notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 119 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 4 notices received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the FEB /2021. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (20,675) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  (FEB 12443 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today (660 x 100 oz per contract) equals 3,215,800 OZ OR 100.0242 TONNESthe number of ounces standing in this  active month of FEB

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the FEB/2021 contract month:

No of notices filed so far (20,675 x 100 oz  PLUS 12,143 OI) for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (660} x 100 oz which equals 3,215,800 oz standing OR 100.0242 TONNES in this active delivery month of FEBRUARY. This is a HUGE amount  standing for GOLD IN  FEB

WE LOST A LARGE 1120 CONTRACTS OR 112,000 OZ MORPHED INTO LONDON BASED FORWARS TRYING THEIR LUCK TO FIND METAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND.  

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:  

461,317.475 oz NOW PLEDGED  SEPT 15.2020/HSBC  14.34 TONNES

84,274.333 PLEDGED  APRIL 3/2020: SCOTIA:2.148 TONNES

290,795.495 oz  JPM  9.04 TONNES

1,014,918.830 oz pledged June 12/2020 Brinks/30.198 TONNES

94,500.934 oz Pledged August 21/regular account 2.93 tonnes JPMORGAN

180,158,329 oz Pledged Nov 27.2021 MANFRA  5.60 TONNES

6,308.08 oz International Delaware:  .196 tonnes

192.06 oz Malca

168,811.741 Manfra

total pledged gold:  2,121,119.74 oz                                     65.97 tonnes

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES…. WE HAVE 535.76 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS i.e. 100.0242 tonnes

CALCULATION OF REGISTERED THAT CAN BE SETTLED UPON:

total registered or dealer  19,345,988.966 oz or 601.74 tonnes
total weight of pledged:  2,121,119.74 oz or 66.32 tonnes
thus:
registered gold that can be used to settle upon: 17,224,869.0  (535,76 tonnes)
true registered gold  (total registered – pledged tonnes  17,224,869.0 (535.76 tonnes)
total eligible gold: 19,783,207.868 , oz (615.34 tonnes)

total registered, pledged  and eligible (customer) gold  39,129,196.834 oz 1,217.08 tonnes (INCLUDES 4 GC GOLD)

total 4 GC gold:   126.34 tonnes

total gold net of 4 GC:  1090.74 tonnes

end

I have compiled  data with respect to registered (or dealer) gold taken on first day notice for each of the past 24 months

The data begins on first day notice for the May month taken on the last day of July 2018. and it continues to present day.

I then took, how many deliveries were recorded by the CME for each and every month.  I also included for reference the price of gold on first day notice.

The first graph is a logarithmic  graph and the second graph, linear.

You can see the huge explosion of registered gold at the comex along with deliveries.

THE DATA AND GRAPHS:
END

FEB 3/2021

And now for the wild silver comex results

And now for the wild silver comex results

INITIAL STANDING FOR SILVER/FEB

FEB. SILVER COMEX CONTRACT MONTH//INITIAL STANDING

Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
87,793.010 oz
Brinks
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
592,587.400 oz
Scotia
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
1,879,883.490 oz
Loomis
No of oz served today (contracts)
20
CONTRACT(S)
(100,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
514 contracts
 2,570,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  1392 contracts

6,960,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
We had 1 deposits into the dealer:
i)Into the dealer: scotia
592,587.400 oz

total dealer deposits: 592,587.400        oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had 1 deposit into the customer account (ELIGIBLE ACCOUNT)

i) Into Loomis; 1,879,883.490 oz

JPMorgan now has 193.906 million oz of  total silver inventory or 48.50% of all official comex silver. (193.906 million/399.777 million

total customer deposits today: nil    oz

we had 1 withdrawals:

i) out of Brinks:
87,793.010 oz

total withdrawals 87,793.010  oz

We had 0 adjustments:

Total dealer(registered) silver: 150.168million oz

total registered and eligible silver:  399.777 million oz

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

FEBRUARY saw a LOSS of 312 contracts to stand at 534. We had 371 notices filed on TUESDAY. So we gained 59 contracts or an additional 295,000 oz will stand for delivery on this side of the pond. 

MARCH LOST 8766 contracts DOWN to 124,775.April gained another 19 contracts to stand at 169

The total number of notices filed today for FEB 2021. contract month is represented by 20 contract(s) FOR 100,000 oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in FEB we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at  1392 x 5,000 oz = 6.960,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of FEB (534) and the number of notices served upon today 20 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the FEB standings for silver for the FEB/2021 contract month: 1391 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of FEB(534)- number of notices served upon today (20) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the Jan contract month .equals 9,530,000 oz. ..VERY STRONG FOR A NON ACTIVE  FEB MONTH.

We gained 59 contracts or an additional 290,000 oz will stand for delivery over here.

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME :100,318 CONTRACTS // volume high/

FOR YESTERDAY  236,414  ,CONFIRMED VOLUME// atmospheric/1.18 billion oz or 169% of annual silver production

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV  FALLS TO- 0.23% ((FEB 3/2021)

2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV  RISES TO -0.70% to NAV:   (FEB 3/2021 )

Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/0.23%(FEB 3/2021)

(courtesy Sprott/GATA

3. SPROTT CEF .A   FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 19.64 TRADING 18.88///NEGATIVE 3.89

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

FEB 3/WITH GOLD DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1157.50 TONNES

FEB 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $27.60 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD// A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.63 TONNES FROM THE GLD//.INVENTORY RESTS AT 1157.50 TONNES

FEB 1/WITH GOLD UP $12.45 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.5 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1160.13 TONNES

JAN 29/WITH GOLD UP $9.65 TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A WITHDRAWAL  OF 4.37 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1164.80 TONNES

JAN 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.90 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.71 TONNES LEAVES THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1169.17 TONNES

JANUARY 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.85 TODAY; A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF .87 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS 1172.38 TONNES

JAN 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.15 TODAY:NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1173.25 TONNES

JAN 25.WITH GOLD DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1173.25 TONNES

JAN 22/WITH GOLD DOWN (9.50 TODAY:A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A WITHDRAWAL OF .88 TONNES FROM THE GLD//NVENTORY RESTS AT 1173.25 TONNES

JAN 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.40 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1174.13 TONNES

JAN 20/WITH GOLD UP $25.20 TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.5 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1174.13 TONNES

JAN 19/WITH GOLD UP $10.90 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 16.63 TONNES INTO GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1177.63 TONNES

JAN 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $22.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//: A WITHDRAWAL OF 10.21 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1161.00 TONNES

JAN 14.WITH GOLD DOWN $2.75 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 10.50 TONNES FROM THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1171.21 TONNES

JAN 13/WITH GOLD UP $11.65 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1181.71 TONNES

JAN 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.70  TODAY;A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD// A WITHDRAWAL OF .400 TONNES FROM THE GLD..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1181.71 TONNES

JAN 11/WITH GOLD UP $14.30 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1182.11 TONNES

JAN 8//WITH GOLD DOWN $75.70 : A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.57 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1182.11 TONNES

JAN 7/WITH GOLD UP $5.70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1186.78 TONNES

JAN 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $44.25 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1186.78 TONNES

JAN 5/WITH GOLD UP $10.05 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 17.21 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1187.95 TONNES

JAN 4/WITH GOLD UP $49.70 TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD; A DEPOSIT OF 0.88 TONNES INTO THE GLD/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1170.74 TONNES

DEC 31/WITH GOLD UP $1.45 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1169.86 TONNES

DEC//30//WITH GOLD UP $13.30 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1169.86 TONNES

DEC.29//WITH GOLD UP $1.65 TODAY: A DEPOSIT OF  2.53 TONNES  CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1169.86 TONNES.

DEC 28WITH GOLD DOWN $3.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1167.53 TONNES

DEC 24/WITH GOLD UP $6.15 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1167.53 TONNES

DEC.23/WITH GOLD UP $7.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.33 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1167.53 TONNES

DEC 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPSOIT OF 2.04 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1169.86 TONNES

DEC 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.60 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1167.82 TONNES

DEC 18/WITH GOLD DOWN 90 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1167.82 TONNES

DEC 17 WITH GOLD UP $39.35 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.33 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1167.82 TONNES

DEC 16/WITH GOLD UP $2.55 TODAY A HUGE  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES FORM THE GLD..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1170.15 TONNES

DEC 15/ WITH GOLD UP $23.75 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.67 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1171.32 TONNES//

DEC 14//WITH GOLD DOWN $10.45 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.79 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1175.99 TONNES

DEC 11/WITH GOLD UP $5.70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1179.78 TONNES

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Inventory rests tonight at:

FEB 3 / GLD INVENTORY 1157.50 tonnes

LAST;  992 TRADING DAYS:   +222.77 TONNES HAVE BEEN ADDED THE GLD

LAST 892 TRADING DAYS// +  391.00TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY

end

Now the SLV Inventory/

FEB 3/WITH SILVER UP 38 CENTS TODAY: A MIND NUMBING: 56.784 MILION OZ “DEPOSIT” INTO THE SLV at 3 pm AND A WITHDRAWAL OF 7.99 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV AT 5 PM//WITH THESE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 669.357 MILLION OZ//

FEB2//WITH SILVER DOWN  $2.81 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: AN UNBELEIVABLE DEPOSIT OF 18.627 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 620.563 MILLION OZ//

FEB 1/WITH SILVER UP $2.56 TODAY: A FAIRY TALE DEPOSIT OF 34.419 MILLION OZ INTO  SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 601.936 MILLION OZ//

JAN 29/WITH SILVER UP 58 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.366 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 567.517 MILLION OZ//

JAN 28/WITH SILVER UP 44 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.393 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 571.883 MILLION OZ/

JAN 27/ WITH SILVER DOWN 10CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.: A XXXWITHDRAWAL OF 3.022 MILLION OZ OF IMAGINARY SILVER// INVENTORY RESTS AT 573.277 MILLION OZ/

JAN 26/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 576.299 MILLION OZ///

JAN 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 2.044 MILLION XXXXOZ INTO THE SLV// INVENTORY RESTS AT 576.299 MILLION OZ./.

JAN 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 31 CENTS CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT /

JAN 21/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY ; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT

574.299 MILLION OZ

XXXXXXXXXXXXXX
FEB 3/2021

SLV INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT

669.357 MILLION OZ

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

Silver – 7 Reasons it is Still Set to Soar

Despite the stalling of the #silvershortsqueeze, is silver still set to soar?

The social media induced bump in the silver price fizzled almost as quickly as it began. The buzz around the white metal came after social media turned to silver as the next short squeeze. The #silversqueeze meme started quickly trending on twitter and the story made it to the front-page headlines of major newspapers, such as the Wall Street Journal. The price shot 15% higher at the start of trading on Monday to a new eight year high before sliding back throughout the trading day Monday and Tuesday to nearly were it started the week.

Although, the first few days of the #silversqueeze campaign have somewhat fizzled, the lasting attention and residual retail investment demand for silver coins and silver bars will boost an already bullish silver price outlook. The widely trending campaign could also benefit silver by introducing Millennial and Generation Z investors, who possibly thought of gold and silver investing as old fashioned, to the markets.

7 reasons that show it is silver’s time to shine:

  • Silver has reached a turning point against other assets. Two examples of this are against world equity markets, and US M2 Money supply. The charts below show that silver is climbing against the MSCI World Equity Index (broader equity market indices are highly correlated). It has also reached a turning point against US M2 money supply. As countries continue to debase their currencies through printing investors increasingly turn to gold and silver as a store of value which created this upward inflection point.

Comparing Silver to the MSCI World Equity Index

Graph Comparing Silver to the MSCI World Index

Comparing Silver to US M2 Money Supply

Comparing Silver to the US M2 Money Supply
  • Low real-interest rates. Central banks are focused on economic recovery, and any excess consumer price inflation is likely to be chalked up as transitory due to the post-coronavirus recovery. The Federal Reserve has already stated this line of thinking and its own projections show real-interest rates increasingly negative through the forecast period. The Fed has adopted average inflation targeting, which means that since inflation has run below its target for many years that it will let inflation run above target for a period of time. This will push real-interest rates lower. The price has historically been negatively correlated with real-interest rates, meaning as real interest rates are pushed negative further the price of silver (and gold) will rise.
  • Central Banks will continue to fund government debtsCentral bank asset purchases are likely to continue through at least 2022 to soak up government debt from the massive fiscal deficits. This will end many of the social programs introduced as ‘temporary’ support programs will be unpopular among voters and will be extended adding extra expense to already strained government budgets. Central banks are likely to introduce yield curve control measures to keep longer dated government borrowing costs from rising. As Central banks purchase more assets they debase their currencies further. This drives up demand for both gold and silver as monetary assets that are not the liabilities of any central bank.
  • Industrial demand will increaseThe reopening of the economy and concentration on renewable energy will drive demand higher for solar panels, in the automotive industry and other industrial uses. “Solar PV is hugely important to future silver demand. A recent report from the World Bank forecasts that by 2050, consumption of silver in energy technologies could grow dramatically, reaching a level equivalent to more than 50% of current total silver demand; the largest proportion for any non-battery metal. More than 95% of this increase is due to an expansion of solar PV power generation”(silverinstitute.org).
  • Jewelry and Silverware demand will increaseThe demand for consumer goods that are in store purchases versus online will get a boost from retail outlets reopening, among these are jewelry and high-end household products. Households have been socking away extra savings during the pandemic, the US personal savings rate has risen by an aggregate of more than $1 trillion for example.
  • Use for sanitizing and medical purposesThe coronavirus pandemic has increased research into silver use for sanitizing and medical purposes. It is already used in dressing wounds and has been for decades. Plus, it’s toxic to bacteria, fungi virus and algae through the action of its positive ions interfering with their cellular membranes. Bacteria killed by silver do not destroy or consume the silver mass which means the same silver mass remains available to kill subsequent bacteria (or virus or fungus). This is a permanent mechanism versus alcohol-based sanitizer which stop working once evaporation occurs. Although dosages are measured in milligrams, the coronavirus pandemic response efforts could accelerate research into new meaningful uses of silver tonnage. Also, the “global silver nanowires market has witnessed considerable traction over the years. This is due to the demand for the product from the vast healthcare sector, on account of its anti-microbial properties. These characteristics may be attributed to its strong optical transmittance and conductivity. (This) will magnify the use of the product in medical applications such as imaging” (worldofchemicals.com).
  • Reduction in Mine Supply. The Silver Institute forecasted mine supply to decline 6.3% in 2020 from 2019. This is due to forced temporary closures due to coronavirus lockdowns in many countries. The ongoing coronavirus-induced lockdown restrictions are likely to also limit mine supply in 2021.

The social media buzz has shone a light on the silver market that may shine brightly for years to come. More and more people are becoming aware of the alternate uses the metal has not just as a monetary metal but its growing technological and medical applications. They are now being made aware of what many long term silver investors have known – the true potential of silver!

Gold & Silver Technical Analysis Video

NEWS and COMMENTARY

Silver Calms as Market-Roiling Frenzy Shows Signs of Easing Off 

Silver edges higher even as retail investor euphoria wanes 

Gold, silver coin demand surging, straining U.S. Mint’s capacity 

GOLD PRICES (USD, GBP & EUR – AM/ PM LBMA Fix)

02-02-2021 1847.10 1833.10 1350.05 1345.50 1534.39 1523.67
01-02-2021 1857.80 1862.95 1355.64 1362.38 1537.89 1540.85
29-01-2021 1852.70 1863.80 1354.69 1357.78 1527.92 1534.28
28-01-2021 1839.65 1853.70 1348.65 1351.90 1519.92 1528.19
27-01-2021 1846.40 1843.00 1344.18 1347.05 1522.54 1526.56
26-01-2021 1853.20 1856.60 1356.73 1352.53 1527.22 1526.31
25-01-2021 1855.60 1856.85 1356.63 1359.03 1527.16 1531.34
22-01-2021 1853.60 1852.70 1357.21 1356.18 1522.36 1521.81
21-01-2021 1867.65 1862.10 1361.14 1356.35 1538.57 1532.14
20-01-2021 1854.60 1856.60 1354.23 1360.70 1530.42 1536.15

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ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

Chris Powell on London’s Financial Times non reporting of government intervention in the precious metals business

(Chris Powell)

How far we have come, and how much farther we yet must go

 Section: 

12:30p ET Tuesday, February 2, 2021

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold (and Silver):

Maybe this is a small indication of how far GATA has come and how far we still must go if the rigging of the monetary metals markets is ever to be overthrown for the reasons of justice, humanity, and economics we have tried to articulate for 20 years.

On Friday your secretary/treasurer got a most surprising e-mail. It was from a reporter for a major international financial publication on whose electronic door GATA long has been knocking. The reporter himself long has been sent GATA’s more important findings

Once a few years ago your secretary/treasurer actually got inside this publication’s headquarters to plead GATA’s’ case for 45 minutes. A few years before that he was invited to speak about gold market rigging at a dinner attended by a top editor for the publication, to whom the major documents available at the time were then handed personally.

So while this publication long has been receiving all the major documentation GATA has compiled about surreptitious government intervention against gold, it has remained indifferent to the issue.

The reporter who wrote Friday was seeking comment from GATA about the plan of the Reddit/Wall Street Bets crowd to squeeze what it perceived as the huge short position in silver.

Delighted to be asked, your secretary/treasurer quickly replied:

“If Reddit-inspired investors think that some powerful elements, with the surreptitious support of governments and central banks, are shorting silver and silver mining company stocks in pursuit of suppressing the price of a monetary metal that potentially competes with government currencies and bonds, of course I agree with them.

“If they think they can defeat governments and central banks, creators of infinite money, as easily as they can defeat a hedge fund or two, I admire their courage and wish them the best of luck.

“I would encourage them to inquire into the use of the Central Bank Incentive Program sponsored by CME Group, operator of the major U.S. futures exchanges, which provides volume trading discounts to governments and central banks for their surreptitious trading in the commodity futures markets:

http://gata.org/node/18925

“Such an inquiry might give them a hint about what they’re up against.”

The reporter pronounced this response “excellent” and expressed thanks for it.

Of course your secretary/treasurer did not expect his comment to be used by the publication. Indeed, when a silver story to which this reporter contributed was published Monday, predictably enough it quoted only a London bullion dealer who proclaimed that bullion banks are innocent of any wrongdoing in the silver market.

For surreptitious government intervention in the monetary metals markets and other especially sensitive markets remains a prohibited topic among mainstream financial news organizations.

Maybe this particular reporter hadn’t yet been informed of his publication’s policy. Maybe he knows about it now. We’re sorry if he was embarrassed when he found out. But we’ll keep pounding on his electronic door anyway. Obviously he had thought that GATA’s work might have some bearing on what was happening in the markets. You never know when some integrity might pop up in journalism, even financial journalism.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

Continual government intervention into the silver markets

(Sprott/Hemke)

Craig Hemke at Sprott Money: Groundhog day for silver investors

 Section: 

5p ET Tuesday, February 2, 2021

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Writing today at Sprott Money, the TF Metals Report’s Craig Hemke reminds everyone that the derivatives system of setting gold and silver prices by creating imaginary infinite supply won’t be broken until people stop participating in it and confine their purchases to real metal.

Hemke’s analysis is headlined “Groundhog Day for Silver Investors” and it’s posted at Sprott Money here:

https://www.sprottmoney.com/blog/Groundhog-Day-for-Silver-Investors-Crai…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

GATA makes the London’s Financial Times but severely edited

(Chris Powell/GATA/London’s Financial Times)

GATA makes the Financial Times after all — tellingly edited

 Section: 

7:48p ET Tuesday, February 2, 2021

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

It turns out that GATA made the Financial Times’ internet site this afternoon after all — likely for publication in tomorrow’s print editions — but only in a way suggesting that the newspaper is not willing to publicize any details of surreptitious government intervention in the monetary metals markets…

our secretary/treasurer’s comment to the FT about the Reddit/WallStreet Bets scheme to “squeeze” silver, solicited by the newspaper Friday, was this:

“If Reddit-inspired investors think that some powerful elements, with the surreptitious support of governments and central banks, are shorting silver and silver mining company stocks in pursuit of suppressing the price of a monetary metal that potentially competes with government currencies and bonds, of course I agree with them.

“If they think they can defeat governments and central banks, creators of infinite money, as easily as they can defeat a hedge fund or two, I admire their courage and wish them the best of luck.

“I would encourage them to inquire into the use of the Central Bank Incentive Program sponsored by CME Group, operator of the major U.S. futures exchanges, which provides volume trading discounts to governments and central banks for their surreptitious trading in the commodity futures markets:

http://gata.org/node/18925

“Such an inquiry might give them a hint about what they’re up against.”

As you may see below, only the first paragraph of your secretary/treasurer’s comment was used. Its reference to the Central Bank Incentive Program of CME Group, operator of the major U.S. futures exchanges, in which governments and central banks are given volume trading discounts for surreptitiously trading all futures contracts in the United States, was removed.

That is, GATA’s attempt to provide the FT’s readers — and thus the whole respectable financial world — with documentation of what is usually dismissed as “conspiracy theory” was defeated by copyediting.

All the same, we may be consoled because the FT mentioned GATA and spelled its name right and refrained from any derogation. That is a small start. And we may guess that the removal of the telling documentation was not the reporter’s doing but that of his editor following policy set by higher authorities — maybe not just the newspaper’s chief editors but also the Bank of England.

After all, even this tellingly edited report may provoke the curiosity of a few FT readers who will search out GATA on the internet and review our summary and documentation files —

http://gata.org/node/14839

http://gata.org/taxonomy/term/21

— and find themselves slipping into the parallel universe whose existence they never suspected, a universe in which governments operating in secret are properly understood to define conspiracies and where mainstream financial journalism is recognized as their tool.

Maybe the story will prompt even a financial journalist or two to wonder why he never puts a critical question to a central bank, or never is allowed to.

Fighting the most cosmic frauds and injustices can take a while and be wearying, but as the poet wrote a long time ago:

And not by eastern windows only,
When daylight comes, comes in the light.
In front the sun climbs slow — how slowly —
But westward — look — the land is bright.

Excerpts from this afternoon’s FT story are appended.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Silver Price Retreats Rapidly in Blow to Few Retail Buyers

By Henry Sanderson and Neil Hume
Financial Times, London
Monday, February 1, 2021

A rally in the price of silver fuelled by a sudden burst of interest from retail traders rapidly unwound today, with many veteran investors left scratching their heads over the episode.

Silver fell as much as 8 percent to $27 an ounce, after leaping 12 percent the previous day to the highest level in eight years. The London Bullion Market Association, which oversees the silver market, said more than 1 billion ounces of silver were traded on Monday, more than three times the average towards the end of last year.

The pullback underlines the difficulties facing small investors, even when they combine forces, in influencing the global silver market, where $6 billion worth of the metal changes hands in a typical day. It also reflects growing pushback on the internet forum Reddit against the effort to push up silver prices — a strategy posed by a user last week. …

Analysts said bullion banks such as HSBC and JPMorgan did not have speculative “naked short” positions in silver, and if anything would make money by selling silver to exchange traded funds and helping miners hedge exposure. …

Data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission show that silver producers and so-called swap dealers including banks were short silver before last week’s sudden rally.

But the banks were likely to have taken the position only to hedge their holdings of physical silver, meaning the impact from the sudden price rise would be neutral, according to analysts.

Instead, hedge funds and other speculators — who were net long more than 44,000 silver contracts on Comex last week — would be the likely winners from a rising silver price.

Analysts noted that the language promoting silver on Reddit was similar to that of gold bugs who for years have blamed low gold and silver prices on artificial suppression by the big bullion banks, an impression that was made worse by JPMorgan’s admission in 2020 that it had manipulated precious metals futures over eight years.

The U.S. bank paid a $920 million settlement with U.S. authorities over the practice known as spoofing, which involves quickly placing and withdrawing buy and sell orders to give other traders a false impression of demand.

Chris Powell, a director at the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee, one of the most prominent of the gold enthusiasts, said he applauded the action by the Reddit poster.

“If Reddit-inspired investors think that some powerful elements, with the surreptitious support of governments and central banks, are shorting silver and silver mining company stocks in pursuit of suppressing the price of a monetary metal that potentially competes with government currencies and bonds, of course I agree with them,” he said.

Retail investors poured $93 million into the world’s largest silver-backed exchange traded fund, the iShares Silver Trust on Monday, the third day of rapid net inflows, according to VandaTrack, which collates data from major brokerages. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.ft.com/content/77e6fef6-37ff-4f8e-abd6-4c2d65ac120c

end

iii) Other physical stories:

Special thanks to Doug C for sending these next two commentaries on the shortage of silver:

Li/Bloomberg

USA Mint still rationing silver coins as demand escalates. Good reason for the crooks to whack silver down by $2.85 and gold was down over $27 dollars

(Li/Bloomberg)

U.S. Mint Still Rationing Silver Coins Amid ‘Exceptional’ Demand

Yvonne Yue Li

Updated ·1 min read

(Bloomberg) — The Reddit-fueled run-up in silver prices might be stalling, but the U.S. Mint said it is still rationing its sales of silver coins because of “continued exceptional market demand,” as well as limited supplies and manufacturing capacity.

The Mint is also allocating gold and platinum coin sales to authorized purchasers, it said in a statement Tuesday. The policy will be in place “for the foreseeable future.”

The mint’s silver coin sales jumped 24% to 4.775 million ounces last month, marking the highest for a January since 2017. The Mint’s announcement comes after retail sites were overwhelmed with demand for bars and coins. Investors on Reddit ignited a buying frenzy that roiled precious-metals markets and squeezed physical supplies. Some dealers said over the weekend that they were unable to process orders until Asian markets opened because of record demand.

Throughout the past year, and in part due to the effects of the coronavirus pandemic, the Mint was unable to meet demand due to precious metal blank availability and plant capacity issues.

The Mint also said it will have a limited production window to produce current design American Eagle gold and silver coins, as it’s scheduled to start production of redesigned coins in the summer of 2021, and coins for that program must be produced in advance of the launch date.

For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com

Subscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.

©2021 Bloomberg L.P.

end
Goldsilver.com//silver squeeze/supply update!
(goldsilver.com)

“Silver Squeeze” Supply Update

As many predicted with the social media chatter of a “silver squeeze”, this weekend saw unusually high demand for precious metals, especially physical silver, causing many sites including ours to run low on stock or temporarily stop taking orders.

A few of our most popular products are now back online, with more being added throughout the day.

Orders placed over the weekend will be honored, as we deal exclusively in allocated physical metals from our network of mints, refiners and wholesalers.

As always, orders for allocated storage remain liquid at all times – they are in transit and you may sell them at any time.

However, for delivery orders, shipping times may be longer than originally estimated at order time. We are working with our supplier network to determine exact timing, faced with a backlog many times what our vaults are prepared to fulfill each week. We are expecting deliveries to take a few weeks to clear out, and will update customers as we go. (If you wish to redirect a delayed delivery order to storage just contact customer support to request the change.)

This rush on physical silver came at a time when the industry was already experiencing tight supply: a year of significantly higher than previous volumes which stretched many mints to their limits, the US Mint providing very limited allocations of its most popular product pending a redesign, and stocks of generally stretched thin as holders are simply not selling.

In fact, over the weekend we saw over 50 times the number of buys as sells. This is exacerbated because bid/ask spreads widen quickly in physical metals markets when supply thins out. Ask premiums rise rapidly with demand. Yet future mint allocations, which are often at pre-contracted premiums, slow the speed at which bid premiums rise and eventually pull asks back down toward them. We saw this last Spring and are seeing it again now.

This spike in demand quickly drove up spot prices, as well, jumping nearly 20% in the past week, much of that since Friday. There are many good fundamental reasons for silver prices to be higher than they have been, as Jeff Clark has often outlined.

However, moves this fast in premiums and spot prices can often reverse as quickly, so we encourage all of our customers to exercise good judgment and disciplined trading in volatile markets.

Regards,

Alex Daley, president of GoldSilver.com

end

USA Mint warns that it cannot meet its surging demand for silver and gold

(zerohedge)

US Mint Warns It Can’t Meet “Surging Demand” For Silver & Gold

TUESDAY, FEB 02, 2021 – 21:00

With The Fed printing money ‘out the wazoo’, monetizing COVID relief package debt as fast as Congress can pass the bills, demand for bullion was already surging. However, the last week or so, on the heels of the Reddit-Raiders taking aim at Silver, demand for silver (and gold coins) has exploded…

Sales of U.S. gold bullion coins rose 258% in 2020 while silver coin demand was up 28%, the U.S. Mint said Tuesday.

Which has led to bullion dealers running dry of stock and physical premium to paper silver prices soaring to record highs.

“There are massive shortages. We’ll be completely out of stock if it carries on like this – the first time since our company opened in Singapore seven years ago,” said David Mitchell, managing director at Indigo Precious Metals.

“In the short term, stocks may run out since it takes a long time for sea shipping, but overall supply is ample,” said Peter Fung, head of dealing at Hong Kong-based Wing Fung Precious Metals.

And now, courtesy of Reuters, we have an answer to the shortage.

The US Mint is limiting distribution of its gold, silver and platinum coins to specific dealers because of heavy demand, and a limited number of suppliers of metals, it said in a statement.

The United States Mint said on Tuesday it was unable to meet surging demand for its gold and silver bullion coins in 2020 and through January, due partly to pandemic-driven demand and plant capacity issues… Heavy buying has continued in 2021, it said, squeezing supplies, which had already been tight as the coronavirus affected production.

The last time the US Mint ‘admitted’ its inability to meet demand was in June 2010.

And the reaction in precious metals was…

Trade accordingly.

end

Steve Brown…..on Wall Street’s continual corruption!

(Steve Brown)

Maxine Waters Won’t End Wall Street’s Chronic Corruption

Steve Brown

Rumor abounds that the Wallstreetbets ‘silversqueeze’ posts (removed now) were from Citadel in an ironic ‘get even’ gambit to implicitly accessorize Roczynski’s reddit crowd in the pump-and-dump of SLV, an exchange traded fund run by JP Morgan bank and BlackRock.  When Wallstreetbets (eventually) discovered the silver posts the moderator removed them, but the meme had already gone viral. Mystery is why the wsb posts about silver remained on the forum for so long – about 24 hours – before being taken down.  WSB moderators maintain a very tight grip on postings. One example, the topic of bitcoin is not allowed on Wallstreetbets and that rule is rigorously and promptly enforced.

A further rumor exists that Citadel took profits on its alleged SLV pump-and-dump to put those profits into bitcoin, but that’s unsubstantiated and rather dubious. But if so, that’s a major u-turn for Griffin, since he has been a consistent bitcoin skeptic. More likely, Citadel used SLV pump-and-dump gains  — if it truly did so —  to mitigate Melvin’s losses on GME.

Bottom line, whoever came up with the idea of viral silver Wallstreetbets posts to make a quick buck on SLV may also have hurt – intentionally or not  — the Wallstreetbets long plays in Nokia, AMC, and Gamestop. The true intrigue though is that Citadel, one of the world’s largest hedge funds, had its own covered double-strangle in Gamestop while Melvin Capital writhed under pressure from the whale who got lucky* (Keith Gill) plus Roczynski’s Great Unwashed, and other interests as documented by Pam and Russ Martens on their excellent website.  [NB: their site is heavily DDOS’d and may be unavailable -ed.] How these Wall Street players may or may not have colluded is of course key to Wall Street’s typical criminality.  

Briefly, simple steps the Captured Regulatory might take to suppress such criminal gaming on Wall Street  (assuming the SEC were not already captured! – ed.) includes:

 1. Prevent payment for order flow by law.  Payment for order flow means paying trading hubs (example robinhood) for information to facilitate front-running and gaming of share prices depending on how the trading hub’s retail clients are trading.

2. Prevent any entity from developing short interest (naked share sell-order or put exposure) of more than 90% in any publicly traded company. GME was shorted by 140% at one time.

3. Reinstate criminal penalties for commercial banks who play the casino… ie reinstate Glass-Steagall in full.

Simple and straightforward. But the above is exceedingly unlikely to happen. That’s because the SEC is indeed Captured — as is the CFTC — and the Chair of the House Financial Services Committee — alleged to look into this corruption on the 18th — is a master of corruption herself. That is, none other than Maxine Waters, a national disgrace and carbuncle apparently permanently attached to the rotting carcass of the Beltway’s shameless monolith. Having a vile shill like Waters in charge of US national finance law is like having an accomplished cat burglar in charge of security for a wealthy apartment block.

Meanwhile for CNBC, Bloomberg, and the financial elite media run by the equally depraved, in general they portray the Gamestop gambit as being “the average investor’s challenge to the financial swamp” which is an outright lie, complete fiction, and abject duplicity.

It seems there is little hope while the greed index is nearly off the charts, and presumably will remain so ad infinitum, at least according to our current federally ordained masters of MMT.

*or was he?

END

REUTERS// I am repeating this Reuters story in case you missed this yesterday

(Reuters)

Gold, silver coin demand surging, straining U.S. Mint’s capacity

NEW YORK (Reuters) – The United States Mint said on Tuesday it was unable to meet surging demand for its gold and silver bullion coins in 2020 and through January, due partly to pandemic-driven demand and plant capacity issues.

Sales of U.S. gold bullion coins rose 258% in 2020 while silver coin demand was up 28%, the U.S. Mint said Tuesday. Heavy buying has continued in 2021, it said, squeezing supplies, which had already been tight as the coronavirus affected production.

A social media-driven buying spree lifted silver futures to an eight-year high on Monday, but dealers in the market for coins were already grappling with a supply shortage and shipping delays before that rally.

The Mint, a division of the U.S. Treasury, had limited distribution of its silver coins to suppliers as it is currently changing the designs for its American Eagle Gold and Silver Bullion Coins.

“There was going to be a backlog in the silver bullion supply chain that rendered Silver Eagles more scarce either way,” said Everett Millman at Gainesville Coins in Florida. He expected delays until mid-March for the most popular products.

“The silver coins and silver bars that are available have acquired significantly higher premia,” he added.

In January, 220,500 American Eagle gold bullion coins were sold, up 290% from 56,500 a year earlier, the Mint said.

For this year, the U.S. Mint has a limited window to produce its current gold and silver coins, with redesigned coins expected to debut in the summer. It is limiting distribution of its gold, silver and platinum coins to specific dealers because of heavy demand, and a limited number of suppliers of metals, it said in a statement.

Reporting by Devika Krishna Kumar in New York and Arpan Varghese in Bengaluru; editing by Richard Pullin

END

Von Greyerz: Paper Silver Is Toxic

WEDNESDAY, FEB 03, 2021 – 3:30

Authored by Egon Von Greyerz via GoldSwitzerland.com,

“All things are poison and nothing is without poison; only the dose makes a thing not poison”.

These words were expressed by the famous Swiss physician and scientist Paracelsus in the 16th century.

This week I will discuss two poisonous areas; a toxic derivatives market in silver and ubiquitous fake silver coins and bars.

But first a few words about the dollar.

CENTRAL BANKERS – MASTER FORGERS

The most blatant toxic forgery is carried out by central banks around the world. These banks manufacture $ tens of trillions of fiat paper or electronic entries and then tell the people that it is real money.

If ordinary people would print money, the forgers would go to jail and the money destroyed as it is fake and worthless.

But when central banks print money, no one goes to jail. Instead they tell us that this money has the same value as the money already in circulation.

They might actually be right.

Take the dollar – in real terms it has lost 98% since 1971. So all the dollars circulating are virtually worthless. Thus not much different to freshly printed dollars which are also worthless.

BIDEN & YELLEN TO MAKE HISTORY

In the next 4 years the BY team (Biden&Yellen) will most probably be the ones who fulfil Voltaire’s prediction in 1729 that “Paper Money Eventually Returns To Its Intrinsic Value – ZERO”.

Like Matt Piepenburg and myself, Voltaire knew he would be right because history has 100s of examples of governments and central banks destroying the currency.

Biden/Yellen don’t really need to do much since the dollar is already down 99% since 1913. So all they will do is to push it down another one percent. But we must remember that this one percent is actually 100% loss of value from today.

From the day the Fed was founded in 1913, the dollar’s demise was already written in the history books. And Biden/Yellen is the perfect team to be the executor of history as they drive the dollar to ZERO within the next 4 years.

WRONG DOSE OF POISON

Financial markets suffer from the wrong dose of poison. Trading financial instruments in the right dose is essential for efficient markets. But the heavily leveraged markets are extremely toxic and kill the weaker patients. And this is the kind of rigged market where the normal investor and small trader has no chance against big players be they hedge funds or central banks.

We have just seen how the Reddit group Wallstreetbets has taken on the big hedge fund boys. This Reddit forum is where a very great number of smaller traders discuss investments and interesting trades.

Will the Wallstreetbets group succeed in an attack on the massive silver shorts? I will discuss this at the end of the article as well as their chances of success.

DAVID DISRUPTS GOLIATH’S POWER

Very few have avoided to notice how Wallstreetbets last week attacked Gamestop which was very heavily shorted by the hedge funds. The price went form $19 in early January and settled at $325 last Friday after having reached $350. One trader is said to have made $46 million on a $50,000 bet.

This is real David and Goliath stuff when small traders take on the hedge funds in their own game. Some hedge funds are said to have lost billions of dollars and very few people feel sorry for them. The Schadenfreude (gloating) is very apparent.

TOXIC GOLD & SILVER

Let’s first look at a toxic material that is distributed widely and could flood global markets in the next few years.

I am talking about fake gold and silver that could become a real pest.

Greed clearly drives these unscrupulous “manufacturers” of fake gold and silver bars/coins.

But greed is such a powerful driver that once you discover that people fall for your forgery, the Ponzi scheme grows extremely fast.

FAKE BARS AND COINS

We are regularly informed of fake gold and silver bars and coins, mainly coming from China.

Recently an old and trustworthy contact of mine informed me about his experience in buying silver coins from China on a website like the one below. He spent very little money, just to test the authenticity of the coins.

Due to rising metal prices, there are lots of online ads for US silver dollar coins like American Eagles, Peace dollars and Morgan silver dollars. The sellers are mainly in China.

My friend ordered the coins from China and when they finally arrived – low and behold, they were found to contain virtually no silver except for the surface coating. This after thorough testing.

The coins came from Shenzhen in China. My friend reported his findings to local authorities and the Secret Service and the site is now closed. But like a lot of these counterfeiters, they will most certainly pop up in a different name.

To buy US silver coins from China is clearly a red flag already. But since the Chinese are very big buyers of gold and silver, there are a lot of foreign coins on offer and obviously not all are fake.

CHINESE FACTORY PRODUCING FAKE GOLD

I had first hand information about a case of fake Chinese gold a few years ago. I was in Sydney and interviewed by Channel 7, an Australian news television channel. The news crew had just come back from China where they visited a Chinese gold factory.

In the factory they covertly filmed the vast offer of gold coins and bars with perfect markings from the major refiners in Switzerland, Australia and elsewhere. They bought $1/2 million worth of bars and coins for $500.

For a layman, there was no chance of telling that the gold was fake.

So these are just two examples of fake gold and silver coming out of China.

These fake bars and coins are sold over the internet, not just from China but anywhere in the world. But they can also be sold directly by rogue traders in any country.

There is less chance that these metals reach the well established chain of integrity between LBMA refiners and reputable sellers and vaults.

But the risk is there and even JP Morgan has reported bars with fake logos in their vaults.

BUY FRESHLY MINTED GOLD DIRECTLY FROM REPUTABLE REFINERS

In order to ensure the quality of gold we purchase for our clients, we always buy new bars or coins directly from the Swiss refiners.

If the client sells his gold, we sell it back to the Swiss refiner who melts it down and recasts it. Even if the same gold was sold the previous day by the refiner, they will always refine it again. This totally guarantees the quality of the gold and the integrity of Swiss gold.

FAKE GOLD AND SILVER WILL BECOME A MAJOR POISON

The obvious conclusion for buyers of gold and silver is to only deal with sellers of the highest reputation. It is preferable to buy fresh bars and coins but this is not easy to verify for an amateur.

As the price of the precious metals increase, there will be many new gold and silver “factories” popping up in China and many other countries in Asia.

This will create a major supply of fake gold and silver from all parts of the world.

These fake products will be distributed via the internet and also flood the retail market in many countries and be a real poison for buyers of precious metals.

So dealing with reputable companies is a Sine Qua Non!

BYE BYE DOW

Finally, we have reached the end of the first month of 2021.

In stocks I have in recent articles indicated that the long term secular top could occur in January. This link shows a very important 50 year Dow chart in my article. The second article has two equally important charts of the Dow/Gold ratio which is about to crash.

Our proprietary cycles forecast in early October that the charts of the weekly Nasdaq 100 and Dow would form important tops in the week Jan 18-22.

So far this forecast is correct. If that is confirmed in the next couple of weeks, we are likely to see the beginning of a major secular bear market with potential dramatic crashes.

Even if the big fall in the Dow and the Dow/Gold ratio will come slightly later, it is virtually guaranteed to happen in the next few months. And that will be the end of a spectacular period of debt, fake money and toxic markets.

WALLSTREETBETS TO ATTACK SILVER MARKET?

The ultimate insurance against a total destruction of your wealth, is obviously physical gold and silver stored outside the financial system.

Bitcoin might be a good speculative investment and might also work as a payment method if central banks don’t ban it. But it has nothing to do with real wealth preservation.

Silver is normally the leading indicator for the precious metals.

Following the spectacular short squeeze in Gamestop by the Reddit group Wallstreetbets, there is now speculation that the same could happen with silver.

Yes, everything is possible. But remember that in the gold and silver markets, against the Reddit players there will be:

  • The BIS (Bank of International Settlement),
  • The Fed, ECB and other central banks
  • Plus the bullion banks

So a lot of fire power to beat compared to the Gamestop opposition.

SILVER – THE INVESTMENT OF THE DECADE

The silver market is one of the most toxic of all. Heavily manipulated and with bullion banks now being 100 million oz of silver short on Comex and with no liquidity in London, as Alasdair Macleod has pointed out.

Still, even if not in the next week or two, silver will win this game in the medium and long term as the dosage of paper silver shorts is much too big to survive a short squeeze.

I would not be surprised to see the 1980 and 2011 $50 high to be taken out in 2021.

So silver will lead the metals and the gold/silver ratio, now at 67, will initially reach 30 like in 2011. The long term target is likely to be a lot lower, probably 15 or below.

Expect 2021 to be the year when investors wake up to the fact that gold is not a barbarous relic but actually the best wealth protection you can hold and silver the investment of the decade, as I outlined in my October article.

END

Palisades Gold Radio – YouTube TED BUTLER

Your early WEDNESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED DOWN AT 6.4587 /

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.4628   /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 16.38 PTS OR .46%

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 58.76 PTS OR .20%

2. Nikkei closed UP 284.33 POINTS OR 1.00%

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL GREEN/

USA dollar index DOWN TO 91.24/Euro FALLS TO 1.2018

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: RISES TO. +.06/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 105.05/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen Rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 55.17 and Brent: 58.07

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen down CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE CLOSED down/OFF- SHORE: down

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO -.47%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 0.58% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.12%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.15: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 0.63

3k Gold at $1837.10 silver at: 26.93   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 35/100 in roubles/dollar) 75.81

3m oil into the 55 dollar handle for WTI and 58 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 105.05 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .8987 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0802 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to 0.47%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 1.122% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 1.898%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 7.17..

Futures Ramp As Reddit Rally Routed; Italy Soars On “Prime Mario”

WEDNESDAY, FEB 03, 2021 – 8:00

World shares and US equity futures rose on Wednesday as volatility caused by a retail trading frenzy on Wall Street subsided on expectations of tougher regulation, while optimism about U.S. fiscal stimulus and the appointment of former ECB-head as Italy’s PM – i.e., Prime Mario – also supported sentiment.

At 7:30 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis were down 16 points, or 0.1% S&P 500 E-minis were up 12.25 points, or 0.32%. Nasdaq 100 E-minis were up 73 points, or 0.55%. The MSCI world equity index was up 0.3% by 1119 GMT, inching closer to its record peak following gains in Asia overnight and a positive open in Europe. Shares are back in rally mode as the speculative short squeeze trades popular with Reddit crowds crumble, easing fears that they could lead to destabilizing swings in the stock market as funds are forced to deleverage. Janet Yellen summoned financial regulators to discuss the recent market turmoil (more below) while GameStop and AMC remained volatile, swinging from losses to gains in pre-market trading.

“Equity markets are fading the retail scare … an indication that this still has a long way to run. And run we shall with two beats on earnings from mega-caps Alphabet and Amazon,” said Sebastien Galy, senior macro strategist at Nordea Asset Management.

Wall Street finished sharply higher for a second straight day on Tuesday in a broad-based rally as market participants digested talks over the next round of stimulus. US index futures again rose overnight into Wednesday buoyed by blockbuster results from heavyweights $1+ trillion giants Alphabet and Amazon, ahead of today’s ADP data that is likely to show a rebound in monthly private payrolls. Alphabet Inc jumped 7% in premarket trading as it benefited from lockdowns that drove retail and other advertisers online. Amazon.com edged 0.4% higher as its founder Jeff Bezos would step down as CEO and become executive chairman. The retail giant also reported quarterly sales above $100 billion for the first time. Chipotle dropped about 4% after the burrito chain missed Wall Street estimates for quarterly profit, hurt by costs related to keeping its business running during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The meme rollertcoaster continued, as GameStop and AMC Entertainment initially tumbled double digits before rising 9% and 6%, respectively.

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index climbed 0.7%, with most sectors in the green as corporate results rolled in. Italian stocks and bonds surged after Mario Draghi, the former European Central Bank president, was tapped to be the country’s next prime minister. Italy’s 10-year bond yield fell more than 10 basis points to around 0.55%, its lowest in almost two weeks. It was set for its biggest one-day fall since mid-January. Italian stocks rose 2.7%, lifted by banks.

“A Draghi-led government with a clear mandate and a wider majority is likely to be seen by investors and European partners as the most credible option to face Italy’s policy challenges,”said UBS analysts and economist led by Giovanni Montalti. “A technocratic government represents the upside case scenario,” they added. It was unclear, however, if there would be enough political support for a Draghi cabinet.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks rose for a third consecutive day, with stocks in Vietnam and Japan leading advances among national benchmarks. Consumer discretionary and financial stocks accounted for the biggest subgauge boosts to the MSCI Asia Pacific Index. Toyota Motor was the biggest driver of gains in Japan’s Topix after several of its affiliates raised their profit forecasts ahead of the automaker’s earnings results due out next week. Hong Kong-listed tech giant Tencent and Meituan extended this week’s strong surges. The two stocks helped the Hang Seng Index recoup intraday losses and finish the day higher

In FX, In foreign exchange markets, the euro hit a fresh 2-month low against the dollar, as investors looked to a widening disparity between the strength of U.S. and European pandemic recoveries. The pound slipped ahead of Thursday’s Bank of England meeting; the yield on 10-year gilts rose to the highest since November. The kiwi pared gains in the European session to trade little changed versus the greenback; it rose to a session high at the outset of the Asian session after data showed New Zealand’s fourth-quarter jobless rate fell to 4.9% from 5.3%, driving a repricing of rate expectations.

In rates, Treasuries resumed weakness with long-end yield cheaper by up to 2.5bp amid focus on refunding supply and corporate issuance. Treasury 10-year yields around 1.117%, cheaper by 2bp vs. Tuesday close; long-end led losses steepens 5s30s curve, although remains inside Tuesday wides. Italian bonds significantly outperform as Mario Draghi gets tapped to form a new government. In Europe, Italian bonds outperform Treasuries by 10bp across 10s while German, U.K. also trade ~1bp better in the sector

Going back to equity markets, so far more than 80% of reports from S&P 500 companies have surpassed analysts’ earnings expectations, with 97% of reports from technology companies beating, and yet the responses have been “perverse” with “beaters” unexpectedly underperforming the market on the next trading day.

On the political front, Treasury yields edged up after Senate Democrats put President Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion stimulus plan on a fast track to passage. Democrats in the U.S. Congress on Tuesday voted along the party lines to open debate on a fiscal 2021 budget resolution with coronavirus aid spending instructions, their first steps toward advancing President Joe Biden’s proposed $1.9 trillion package without Republican support. An advisor to President Biden speculated the final stimulus size could be USD 1.3trln, according to Politico.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is calling a meeting of top officials, including from the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Federal Reserve, this week to discuss market volatility. Despite that her generous sponsor Citadel will be a key target of conversation, and despite her pledge to recuse herself of all matters involving Citadel, Yellen got an “ethics waiver” to lead the talks after all. And just like that Citadel now runs the country.

“Regulators have acknowledged the tumult,” Deutsche Bank strategists led by Jim Reid said in a note. What he didn’t say is because Yellen is now in Citadel’s pocket, absolutely nothing will change.

In cryptos bitcoin soared in the past few days amid growing popular acceptance, while Ethereum hit a new all time high above $1500. Elsewhere in commodities, spot silver, which briefly surged on Monday as small traders bought up the metal, rose 1% to $27.04 an ounce. That was a minor rebound from an 8% tumble on Tuesday, and analysts said the retail trader-driven rally to a near eight-year peak in the previous session had faded. Spot gold fell 0.1% to $1,835.1 per ounce.

Oil prices continued their upswing, supported by an unexpected draw in U.S. crude stockpiles and a producer estimate of a global oil market deficit this year. Brent crude futures hit an 11-month high and were last up 0.8% at $57.94 a barrel, while WTI climbed 0.6% to $55.1 a barrel, just shy of a one-year high.

Looking at the day ahead, highlights include US Markit PMIs (final), US ADP, ISM services, DoEs, OPEC+ JMMC, Fed’s Kashkari, Bullard, Harker, Mester, Evans, Kaplan, US quarterly refunding announcement
Earnings from AbbVie, Qualcomm, eBay, GSK

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.3% to 3,830.25
  • Stoxx Europe 600 up 0.6%
  • MXAP up 0.9%
  • MXAPJ up 0.6%
  • Nikkei up 1%
  • Topix up 1.3%
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.2%
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.5%
  • Sensex up 0.8%
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.9%
  • Kospi up 1.1%
  • German 10Y yield up 2 bps to -0.47%
  • Euro weakens 0.2% to $1.202
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 4.1 bps to -0.510%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 12.6 bps to 0.107%
  • Brent futures up 0.9% to $58.00/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.2% to $1,834.61
  • U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 91.22

Top Overnight News

  • The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed and the greenback advanced against most of its Group-of-10 peers
  • Italian bonds and stocks surged after Mario Draghi, the former ECB president who helped to bring calm to one of the region’s most volatile debt markets, was tapped to be the country’s next prime minister
  • Short-term sentiment in euro options may get a lift from the news
  • The pound slipped ahead of Thursday’s Bank of England meeting; the yield on 10-year gilts rose to the highest since November
  • The kiwi pared gains in the European session to trade little changed versus the greenback; it rose to a session high at the outset of the Asian session after data showed New Zealand’s fourth-quarter jobless rate fell to 4.9% from 5.3%, driving a repricing of rate expectations
  • Silver gained after the biggest loss since August, with markets calming following a buying frenzy that sent prices to an eight-year high

Quick look at global markets courtesy Newsquawk

Asian equity markets traded mostly higher as the region took impetus from global peers including the advances on Wall St. where Reddit concerns continued to subside and amid vaccination progress, while after-market earnings also provided encouragement after tech giants Google and Amazon both beat on top and bottom lines. ASX 200 (+0.9%) was led higher by the property sector and financials following the RBA’s recent QE extension and with Governor Lowe reiterating the central bank’s dovish tone at the National Press Club of Australia Conference where he stated the cash rate will be kept at 0.10% for as long as necessary and it will be some years before inflation and unemployment goals are achieved which they do not expect to occur before 2024 and possibly later. Nikkei 225 (+1.0%) climbed above the 28,500 level despite the state of emergency extension which had been widely telegraphed beforehand, with focus in Japan centred on earnings results including Panasonic which was boosted by an upgrade to its FY net forecasts, while the KOSPI (+0.8%) was driven by its largest automakers Hyundai Motor and affiliate Kia Motors amid reports that Apple is to invest KRW 4tln in the latter for an EV joint venture. Conversely, Hang Seng (+0.2%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.5%) were subdued after the PBoC drained liquidity and with local media noting the central bank’s recent open market operations pattern shows it is aiming to keep liquidity tightly balanced to avert risks from over leveraging, while PMI data added to the headwinds after Chinese Caixin Services PMI missed expectations to print its lowest since April 2020 and Caixin Composite PMI data also slowed from the prior month. Finally, 10yr JGBs were lacklustre after the bear-steepening in USTs and with haven demand sapped by the mostly positive risk tone, while the BoJ’s presence in the market also failed to support prices as the central bank reduced purchase amounts of 1yr-3yr and 3yr-5yr JGBs as it had flagged when it announced this month’s buying intentions.

Top Asian News

  • Morgan Stanley Says Emerging Stocks May Have Already Peaked
  • Kuwait Cashes Out of Key Assets to Stave Off Liquidity Crunch
  • China Drains Funds From Banking System as Cash Crunch Eases

European equities kicked off the mid-week session higher across the board, but the momentum has since abated (Euro Stoxx 50 +0.7%), albeit the region holds onto gains despite a somewhat mixed APAC lead. US equity futures meanwhile see mixed trade thus far, with the NQ (+0.7%) narrowly outpacing peers whilst the RTY (-0.2%) struggled to stay positive – with the former aided by Alphabet (+7%) post-earnings after it reported a strong Q4 with Cloud and YouTube ads revenues rising Y/Y. Back to Europe, Italy markedly outperforms the region as the FTSE MIB (+2.6%) cheers reports that former ECB President Draghi has been tapped to take the Prime Minister position in a bid to end the political limbo and enhance the economic recovery. As such Italian banks populate the top of the index with favourable BTP price action also underpinning that domestic lenders. The DAX (+0.6%) is reinforced by one of its largest members Siemens (+2%) following stellar earnings. Siemens has a 9% weighting in the German bourse. Sectors in Europe are mostly higher but fail to provide a clean risk profile. Energy underperforms as crude prices hover in a tight range, whilst Telecoms reside on the other end of the spectrum – with Vodafone (+4%) propping up the sector despite lacklustre earnings as sources suggested the group could IPO its EUR 3bln Vantage Towers in March this year. Elsewhere, Healthcare is supported by one of its largest constituents AstraZeneca (+0.7%) as a medical paper noted that the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine shows sustained protection of 76% during 3-month interval until 2nd dose. In terms of individual movers, Daimler (+2.5%) gains impetus from source reports that the Co. is approaching a decision on the potential IPO of its truck unit and a minority stake IPO could occur as soon as H2 2021, which could be worth around EUR 29bln if valued along the same lines as Volvo AB according to Deutsche Bank.

Top European News

  • EU Faces 100 Billion-Euro Price Tag for Bungled Vaccine Push
  • Santander’s Resilient Earnings Help Investors Look Past Charges
  • Daimler Is Said to Near Decision on Pursuing Truck Unit IPO

In FX,more positives for the Kiwi to lean on and provide a buffer when overall risk sentiment and other external impulses are less favourable, as NZ Q4 labour data blitzed expectations in terms of the employment count and jobless rate. Indeed, Nzd/Usd is pivoting 0.7200 and Aud/Nzd has been under 1.5500 even though the Aussie has regained some poise post-RBA and grips on the 0.7600 handle vs its US counterpart irrespective of Governor Lowe reiterating dovish rate guidance overnight (cash rate to stay at 0.1% until 2024, and perhaps longer). Conversely, ANZ has now retracted its call for the RBNZ to ease by another 15 bp in May and all remaining rate cut bets for 2021 have been erased from money market pricing in NZ.

  • USD – Aside from the defiance down under, G10 rivals are struggling to stop the rot against the Buck as the DXY maintains its recovery momentum and seeks to extend beyond the 91.000 mark off a shallower base. The index retreated from 91.283 amidst knock-on gains across most APAC equity bourses overnight following a strong close on Wall Street, but quickly regrouped EU indices pared back and weakness in certain currencies due to specific factors resumed. However, Tuesday’s best has not quite been surpassed within a 91.263-90.988 range ahead of a much busier US agenda including ADP, final Markit services and composite PMIs, ISM non-manufacturing and an array of Fed speakers.
  • CHF/EUR/GBP/JPY – All hovering near recent lows vs the Dollar, with the Franc still on the cusp of 0.8900, Euro hovering midway between 1.2050-10 with little reaction broadly better than expected Eurozone PMIs or stronger than forecast inflation, and the Pound pivoting 1.3650 after upward tweaks to the final UK services and composite PMIs that still left both well below the key 50.0 level. Similarly, the Yen is floundering south of 105.00 and gleaned little in the way of traction via moderately less contractionary Japanese services and composite PMIs.
  • CAD/NOK – The Loonie and Norwegian Krona are holding up a tad better than others alongside oil prices around Usd 55/brl for WTI and Usd 58/brl in Brent, with Usd/Cad capped into 1.2900 and Eur/Nok straddling 10.3500.
  • SEK/EM – No sign of an acceleration in Sweden’s services PMI helping the Swedish Crown to capitalise on Euro underperformance elsewhere as the cross hovers near the top of a 10.1415-10.1025 band, but the Turkish Lira has been given another boost from stronger than consensus CPI that should resonate with the CBRT hot on the heels of hawkish commentary yesterday (underscoring intention to return inflation to target and front-load tightening if warranted). Hence, Usd/Try is back down from circa 7.2000 and probing towards 7.1250.

In commodities, WTI and Brent front month futures remain contained in early European hours as the complex piggy-backs on the risk tone across the markets, whilst the JMMC later today is expected to be uneventful – but, the lack of hawkish language out of yesterday’s JTC could be acting as an underlying force keeping prices elevated alongside another surprise drawdown in private inventories (-4.3mln bbl vs exp. +0.4mln). Traders will now be eyeing the weekly EIA data as the next scheduled catalyst – which is also expected to show a build of some 0.44mln bbls in spite of the recent streak of surprise drawdowns . WTI probes USD 55/bbl (vs low 54.80/bbl) whilst its Brent counterpart paused after eclipsing USD 58/bbl to the upside (vs low USD 57/50/bbl). Analysts and ING expect further upside in oil prices over H2 2021, “there are still plenty of demand risks floating around, while on the supply side, there is the issue of Iran, and when we will see Iranian supply growing”, the bank caveats. Elsewhere precious metals are relatively flat amid a lack of fresh catalysts and with upside hampered by a firmer Buck – with spot gold contained sub-1850/oz and spot silver caged on either side of USD 27/oz, whilst the US Mint yesterday stated it cannot meet the rising demand for the precious metals as plant capacity issues poses problems. Elsewhere, LME copper nursed earlier losses after Shanghai copper fell as much as 1.3% at one point to an eight-week low amid a dampened demand outlook heading into the Chinese Spring Festival. Meanwhile, Dalian iron ore futures were pressured to a similar extend as the base metal also tackles with the rising shipments of the base metal from Brazil.

US Event Calendar

  • 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications
  • 8:15am: ADP Employment Change
  • 9:45am: Markit US Composite PMI
  • 9:45am: Markit US Services PMI

DB”s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Global risk assets surged once again yesterday as investors remained optimistic on the prospects of US fiscal stimulus and a raft of earnings reports came through, with the S&P 500 ending the session up a further +1.39% to achieve its biggest 2-day advance since early November, in the days just after the US election. Once again it was a broad-based advance, with 22 of 24 industry group as well as 403 companies in the index rising on the day, though the index had pared back its gains by the close, having earlier achieved an intraday high of +1.83%. Other indices such as the NASDAQ (+1.56%), as well as Europe’s STOXX 600 (+1.29%) saw similarly strong gains, as the VIX index of volatility fell back -4.7pts as it continued to subside from its surge last week.

This morning US equity futures are pointing even higher following those earnings reports after the US close, where the most notable news came from Amazon as the company announced that CEO Jeff Bezos will step down from his role to become executive chairman later this year and will be replaced by the head of Amazon Web Services, Andy Jassy. The move highlights how important the division is for the online retailer, and investors seemed unperturbed by the development with shares rising in after-market trading. The company reported 4Q sales grew by 44% to $125.6bn, well above the $119.7bn estimate by analysts, though their guidance for the upcoming quarter lagged Wall Street expectations. Google’s parents company, Alphabet, was the other Mega-cap tech company to report yesterday, with the company’s shares rising +6.7% in after-market trading as they beat expectations on digital ad sales during the holiday period. Elsewhere, Exxon Mobil announced prior to yesterday’s session and recorded its first annual loss in at least 40 years, after recording its lowest yearly production since the 1999 merger between Exxon and Mobil. Regardless, the company’s shares rose +1.58% as the largest US oil company ensured investors of its financial health and pledged to maintain their dividend payout – currently the third largest in the S&P 500.

One area that didn’t share in yesterday’s rally were the Reddit-fuelled trades of last week, with numerous companies that saw astonishing rallies plummeting once again. Indeed by the close, GameStop had shed more than half its value, with a -59.91% decline, which comes on the back of its -30.77% decline on Monday, while others such as AMC Entertainment Holdings (-41.04%), Express (-32.40%), Blackberry (-20.98%) and Nokia (-7.57%) also lost significant value. Gamestop shares are now -81.3% from their intraday highs, while AMC is -61.5% below its high water mark. This reversal was also evident in the price of silver, which shed -8.12% to more than erase the previous day’s gains, suffering its worst daily performance since August. Regulators have acknowledged the tumult, and a statement from the US Treasury department yesterday said that Secretary Yellen had called a meeting with the SEC, the Federal Reserve Board, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, as well as the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The statement said that Yellen has asked “whether recent activities are consistent with investor protection and fair and efficient markets”.

Yesterday’s risk appetite helped a number of other assets too, including oil prices, which surged to their highest levels since the pandemic began yesterday – a key factor for strength among energy sector stocks yesterday. However safe havens didn’t do so well, and investors moved out of sovereign bonds on both sides of the Atlantic. Yields on 10yr US treasuries were up +1.7bps to 1.096%, as Senate Democrats moved to open debate on a budget resolution for the 2021 fiscal year, something which would enable President Biden’s stimulus plan to pass with just a simple majority. And over in Europe, yields on bunds (+2.7bps), OATs (+2.7bps) and BTPs (+3.0bps) also moved higher. This move out of safe havens didn’t hurt the US dollar however, which strengthened a further +0.24% yesterday to its highest level in 2 month, though it’s since eased back this morning.

In Italy, there was a major development on the political situation last night, with the news Bloomberg) that former ECB President Mario Draghi is due to meet Italian President Mattarella for discussions on forming a new government, with Draghi now the frontrunner to become Italy’s next Prime Minister. It follows the collapse of the existing coalition led by incumbent PM Conte, which was triggered by the decision from former PM Renzi to withdraw his Italia Viva party from the coalition. Markets reacted positively to Draghi news, with the former ECB President having been credited with saving the single currency during the sovereign debt crisis with his pledge to do “whatever it takes”, and the euro strengthened after the reports came through. That said, there are still questions on how easy it’ll be to actually forge a new cross-party majority, and a number of opposition parties still favour early elections.

Overnight in Asia, the global equity rally has extended into a third day for the most part, with the Nikkei (+0.81%), the Shanghai Comp (+0.15%), the Kospi (+0.89%) and the ASX (+0.92%) all moving higher, albeit as the Hang Seng (-0.32%) has lost ground this morning. S&P 500 futures have also extended their gains in the US, and are up +0.37%. The moves have come as we’ve begun to get the services and composite PMIs from Asia this morning, ahead of the European and US releases later. China’s January Caixin services PMI slowed down to 52.0 (vs. 55.0 expected) while Japan’s final services PMI came in at 46.1 (vs. flash 45.7).

On the pandemic, there was some positive news yesterday as the UK’s strategy of delaying the second dose of the vaccine in order to give more people a first dose received vindication from some Oxford academics in a pre-print paper. They found that the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine had 76% efficacy after a single dose of the vaccine from day 22 to day 90 after vaccination, and that protection did not wane during this initial 3-month period. Furthermore, they found that those who had the second dose with a longer gap after the first actually were more protected, with efficacy at 82.4% for those with 12 or more weeks to the second dose, compared to 54.9% for those where the booster was given within 6 weeks. However, Public Health England also reported that the UK variant of the coronavirus had developed further mutations, with 11 cases detected of the UK variant having the E484k mutation that’s present in the South African and Brazilian variants. In spite of that however, the number of confirmed daily cases in the UK fell to its lowest number yesterday in nearly 2 months, at 16,840. The news came as health officials in France, Sweden and the Netherlands all reported new cases of the UK variant, and the Netherlands accompanied their announcement with news that the nation’s lockdowns would remain in place for another month, as the PM Rutte said that British mutation is “two-thirds of all new infections.” In France, President Macron said that a vaccine would be offered to all adults who wanted one by the end of the summer, though nursing home residents could all get the shot by early March. In the US, there was news that the federal government will test a program to provide vaccines directly to pharmacies in a bid to speed up inoculations.

In Jim’s chart of the day yesterday (link here) we looked at reports from Israel based on actual vaccinations, which showed that of the more than 700k over-60s who took 2 doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine, only 0.07% tested positive for Covid-19, and only 0.005% were hospitalised for it. Although the group didn’t have a control and the current lockdowns will have helped, these extraordinary low numbers of hospitalisations in both the trials and the actual numbers for Israelis over 60 should provide some hope that the world can look a lot different in just a few months’ time.

In terms of yesterday’s data, the main news was that the Euro Area economy contracted by a smaller-than-expected -0.7% qoq in Q4 (vs. -0.9% expected), confirming the impressive resilience of the economy in spite of the second wave and resulting restrictions. That said, we also got the Italian GDP number yesterday, which unlike France and Spain did not deliver an upside surprise relative to the consensus, with a -2.0% contraction as expected.

To the day ahead now, and the main data highlight will be the release of the January services and composite PMIs from around the world. Otherwise, there’s the flash Euro Area CPI reading for January, the ISM services index from the US, along with the ADP’s private payrolls report from the US for January. Central bank speakers include the Fed’s Kashkari, Bullard, Harker, Mester and Evans, whilst earnings releases include PayPal, AbbVie, Qualcomm and Biogen.

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)WEDNESDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 16.38 PTS OR .46%   //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 58.76 PTS .20%    /The Nikkei closed UP 284.33 POINTS OR 1.00%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .90%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN AT 6.4587 /Oil UP TO 55.171 dollars per barrel for WTI and 58.08 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.4587. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.4628 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS //TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED//CORONAVIRUS/PANDEMIC/TRUMP TESTS POSITIVE FOR COVID 19  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3 C CHINA

CHINA/USA

A joke!!

WHO Experts Finally Reach Wuhan Lab At Center Of COVID-19 Origin Probe

WEDNESDAY, FEB 03, 2021 – 14:05

After more than a year and plenty of excuses, a team of World Health Organization (WHO) experts has finally entered the lab in Wuhan, China, which has been at the center of much speculation surrounding the origins of COVID-19.

Speculation about the virus’ origins call into question the official ‘wet market’ narrative, raising questions about the Wuhan Institute of Virology, the country’s only Biosafety Level 4 (BSL-4). The lab is designed to examine the world’s most dangerous pathogens and is led by virologist Shi Zhengli, known as China’s “Batwoman,” for her extensive work on bat-borne coronaviruses.

WHO experts have had multiple opportunities to visit the Wuhan lab over the last year but chose not to. In July, we noted the WHO said it would not be visiting the lab despite having held samples of coronavirus. In August, the WHO failed to investigate the lab while it sat in Beijing for three weeks.

While WHO experts twiddled their thumbs for more than a year – any chance of finding a smoking gun into the origins of the virus is likely gone – that means CCP officials probably wiped the lab clean.

… and that is exactly what they did – as we reported last month, CCP officials deleted hundreds of pages of information spanning over 300 studies conducted by the lab.

More than a year later, the show must go on. WHO experts arrived at the lab on Wednesday to conduct their investigation for the world to see.

Peter Daszak, who is part of the WHO team and president of EcoHealth Alliance, was quoted by Financial Times as saying the team will be “asking all the questions that need to be asked” in the quest of finding the virus’ origin.

Comprised of epidemiologists, zoologists, virologist, and public health experts, the WHO team, visited the BSL-4 in Wuhan Wednesday to piece together the complex puzzle of how the first humans were infected.

“We’re looking forward to meeting with all the key people here and asking all the important questions that need to be asked,” Daszak told Japanese broadcaster TBS.

According to AP News, the WHO team visited the lab and spoke with officials for three hours. The team also visited the Huanan seafood market, which is the first place CCP controlled state media said the first known cluster of infections were found in late 2019.

It’s likely the WHO team had limited access to the BSL-4 — considering Beijing, since last summer, has pushed the narrative, completely unfounded, that the virus may have originated elsewhere.

Daszak, who CNN quoted, said he hoped his relationships with lab officials would get his team everything they need.

“We’ve already spoken with (Shi) Zhengli, and she’s open about these things. I’m hoping that we’ll have the same level of openness and transparency,” he said.

“We could have been here a year ago doing good work,” Daszak said, adding that “we’re getting good access … all the time, we’re digging in to find out more and more information about each possible pathway.”

Trump administration officials, especially those in the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency, have suggested the virus may have been released due to a lab accident in Wuhan. Last month, it was reported former National Security Adviser Matthew Pottinger said there’s “a growing body of evidence that the lab is likely the most credible source of the virus.”

Meanwhile, the Biden administration has been quiet about criticizing China about the origins of the virus but has stated a “robust and clear” investigation is needed.

Antony Blinken, US secretary of state, told MSNBC that China is “falling far short of the mark” in granting access to the international community. “That lack of transparency, that lack of being forthcoming, is a profound problem, and it’s one that continues,” he said.

CCP has been given more than a year to truly cleanse all evidence of the virus’ origin and the WHO, considering their cozy relationship with Beijing, may be able to reshape the narrative that the virus wasn’t created in a lab but rather a natural phenomenon… or at a minimum, suggest ‘results are inconclusive.’

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

Super Mario Draghi is tapped to lead Italy as the Italian Government collapses

(Two commentaries)

Former ECB Chief Mario Draghi Tapped To Lead Italy As Government Collapses

TUESDAY, FEB 02, 2021 – 16:43

The day may have finally come for “Super Mario” to take the reins in his chaotic home-country of Italy and lead it back to the path of capitalism-driven prosperity before its banking system collapses (surely we jest).

But what will the “whatever it takes” central banker ethos mean with Draghi now responsible for one of the most fiscally-frayed major powers in Europe?

After a series of earlier votes, Giuseppe Conte, who was brought in as an apolitical compromise PM just a couple of years ago by a tenuous coalition of the Five Star movement and The League, Italy’s popular right-wing anti-migrant party. The League’s leader, Matteo Salvini, was ousted in the summer of 2019 after attempting to force another election in which The League would (at least in theory) walk away with enough votes for Salvini to expel his pesky coalition partners.

But that’s not how it went.

Instead, Conte managed to cobble together a coalition involving both 5-Star and the opposition Democrats (violating Five Star’s “anti-establishment” pitch) and he managed to emerge at the head of a new government, while Salvini was cast back into the opposition.

Salvini has been hard at work since then to win the prize he holds most dear: someday leading Italy as PM. But Conte has seemingly run out of luck as notoriously ungovernable Italy votes out another government.

President Sergio Mattarella, who serves a kind of caretaker role in Italy’s political system, pushed back at the prospect of going to another election, as he urged Italy’s lawmakers to continue talks to form a new caretaker coalition.

And in the latest sign that we now live in bizarro world, having joked just minutes before that…

…President Mattarella has asked Draghi to immediately take the reins – according to the FT, which got the scoop – and try to form a government of national unity, which will only be accepted if the legislature supports it. Already, members of the Five Star Movement are saying they won’t back such an ‘establishment’ candidate.

The upshot: Whether the former ECB leader actually succeeds in forming a government of national unity is far from clear.

Mattarella already told the country in a televised speech Tuesday night that going to an election would be the worst possible decision with the urgent need of the government to approve COVID relief.

“I have the duty to emphasize, as the long period of electoral campaign, and the resulting reduction of government activity, would coincide with a crucial moment for the fate of Italy,” Mattarella said.

Mattarella and Draghi are expected to meet in person at noontime Wednesday in Rome.

Should Draghi’s candidacy succeed, he would notably follow the ascension of Janet Yellen, former Fed chief, to the head of the US Treasury. That Draghi’s name is in the running is hardly a surprise, the central banker ended his eight years as the helm of the ECB in 2019, and has since been repeatedly cited as a potential caretaker leader many times.

So now we have the circle complete as technocratic central bankers seize gratefully accept control from democratically elected governments (pulling back the curtain of how the western system has really worked for years).

Analysts widely expect European investors to embrace the news, since Draghi is pretty much the definition of a “known quantity”. The euro is already rallying on the news.

Perhaps the biggest surprise here isn’t that Conte’s political career is already over after such a short run; it’s that, in the end, Matteo Renzi, former Italian premier and leader of a new center-left group, was the one to stick the knife in, not Conte’s former rival, Matteo Salvini.

end

“Super” Mario Draghi Tapped To Lead Apolitical “Unity” Government, Save Italian Economy

WEDNESDAY, FEB 03, 2021 – 7:50

With the G-20 eager to ensure a stable hand is at the steering wheel of Italy’s chaotic economy during a critical year for Italian economic development (Italy is hosting the rotating G-20 presidency this year; Janet Yellen had a call with Italy’s economics minister just a couple of days ago) Italian President Sergio Mattarella has just confirmed that former ECB chief Mario Draghi – who earned the nickname “Super Mario” for his infamous “whatever it takes” to save the euro speech, given nearly nine years ago – will be tapped to form a new Italian government although it was not immediately clear if he will have enough political support.

Italian bond yields tumbled and the 10y BTP-Bund spread tightened 11bps to 103bps overnight when the appointment was first leaked, while showing only a muted reaction to the confirmation of the news.

The news, which has been carefully telegraphed to the press, with the news all but confirmed a day ago, was hardly a surprise: because by the time the announcement was made, a global chorus of market participants and technocrats had shouted that Draghi was the only one with enough credibility to lead Italy back to a place of economic prosperity. Earlier in the European session, the spread between the 10-Year BTP, and the 10-Year German bund (often referred to as “lo spread”) compressed, a sign of growing hopes for Italy’s economic future (and falling credit risk for those who lend to the Italian government). In the European equity space, the Italian FTSE MIB is the outperformer with gains of around 3.0%.

Draghi is reportedly being given wide latitude to form a government by Mattarella, who, as president, holds an important custodial role in the Italian government (and has featured in proceedings almost too frequently in recent years), but has little actual power. Mattarella said last night that without a new government at the helm, Italy’s government would be essentially frozen pending new elections, leaving the Italian people vulnerable to the financial and political vicissitudes of both COVID and tumbling confidence in the Italian people’s ability to government themselves. With that, he said he had no alternative but to appoint Draghi, who will run Italy until the next round of elections, which presumably will be held later this year.

“I have the duty to emphasise that the long period of electoral campaign, and the resulting reduction of government activity, would coincide with a crucial moment for the fate of Italy,” Mattarella said.

At UBS, a team of analysts and economist led by Giovanni Montalti said that “a Draghi-led government with a clear mandate and a wider majority is likely to be seen by investors and European partners as the most credible option to face Italy’s policy challenges. A technocratic government represents the upside case scenario.”

On Twitter, the memes are already beginning to flow.

Bloomberg opinion writer Ferdinando Giugliano, although there are “reasons to be skeptical” about a technocrat who was once the most powerful financial official in Europe being appointed to lead the Continent’s third-biggest economy, in the end “if there’s one man who could extract Italy from its mess, it is Draghi.”

“The former European Central Bank president has an unrivalled record in crisis management, having steered Italy and the euro zone through some of the worst turmoil of the past three decades.” In the early 1990s, as director general of Italy’s treasury, he navigated Europe’s Exchange Rate Mechanism crisis, rescued Rome from a likely default and spearheaded a vast privatization program – all of this while Italy’s “Clean Hands” bribery scandal swept away a generation of politicians.”

It’s only the first week of February, and already shares of Gamestop have soared well into triple-digit territory, and former central bankers are being tapped to form expressly apolitical governments of national unity to try and save an entire European economy from financial ruin. At this point, investors might want to brace for the prospect that 2021 might be even stranger than 2020, if that’s possible

end

FRANCE/CORONAVIRUS UPDATE/ASTRAZENECA

France raises more questions about AstraZeneca safety as new dat is released.

(zerohedge)

France Raises More Questions About AstraZeneca Jab Safety As Oxford Releases New Data

WEDNESDAY, FEB 03, 2021 – 4:15

The latest update on the AstraZeneca-Oxford COVID jab was released Tuesday afternoon in a report from the University which offered more insight on exactly when vaccine-induced immunity begins, and how effective the vaccine can be after its first dose and after its second.

Unsurprisingly, the data offer a more optimistic read than the batch released by AZ and Oxford the first time around.

But they also suggest that the vaccine is actually more effective overall if doctors wait roughly 3 months before inoculating patients with the second dose, which provides support for “current policy” in the UK.

However, in the US, the FDA-recommended vaccination dosing schedule is 21 days, which has endured despite logistical problems and other issues that have caused delivery delays in NYC and elsewhere (so much for the consistency of the “science”), And the new AstraZeneca vaccine might be able to fix all that.

According to the research team, the first dose alone offers 76% protection from symptomatic COVID 22 days post-vaccination. But the jab successfully offers sustained protection through a 3-month period, even without receiving the second dose, a data point that has already been transformed into a marketing opportunity by AstraZeneca.

Prof Andrew Pollard, Chief Investigator of Oxford Vaccine Trial and co-author of the paper, said in a statement: “These new data provide an important verification of the interim data that was used by more than 25 regulators including the MHRA and EMA to grant the vaccine emergency use authorization.”

“It also supports the policy recommendation made by the Joint Committee on Vaccination & Immunisation for a 12-week prime-boost interval, as they look for the optimal approach to roll out, & reassures us that people are protected from 22 days after a single dose of the vaccine.”

The new data, which  are culled from cases extended through Dec. 7, purportedly show the optimal window for the second booster dose could be up to 14 weeks. That means it’s less risky to give patients the AstraZeneca shot, because even if there are supply delays, patients won’t be badly harmed.

After the second dose, immunity rises to 82.4%, according to data taken from cases throughout the 3-month interval window. The research team offered the data with a 95% confidence interval of 62.7% – 91.7% at 12+ weeks


In another “unprecedented” update, the data suggest the vaccine helps prevent transmission of the virus, with 67% reduction in positive swabs among those vaccinated”

“However, overall cases of any PCR+ were reduced by 67% (95%CI 49%, 78%) after a single SD vaccine suggesting the potential for a substantial reduction in transmission,” the authors of the paper wrote.

Officials likely hoped the report would help cement public support for the AstraZeneca vaccine, (at least in Europe, its primary market, where it has inked deals for billions of doses). The AZ vaccine is, notably, also less effective than Russia’s “Sputnik V” vaccine, according to data published by the Lancet a few days back.

Unfortunately, its release was timed with more “problematic” comments from French President Emmanuel Macron and the French authorities.

Specifically,French health authorities have approved the vaccine,but they have also warned that the AZ-Oxford vaccine should only be given to people aged under 65, after the initial preliminary reports on AZ released late last year suggested some adverse health reactions in older patients.

France has approved the jab, but it ranks as one of the most vaccine-skeptic among the major European economies.

Readers can find the entire research paper below:

SSRN-id3777268 by Joseph Adinolfi Jr. on Scribd

end

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

Iran/UN Atomic Watchdog//Israel

they will have nuculear capability in days:

Iran says it now has “two cascades of advanced centrifuges with almost four times the enrichment capacity of earlier ones” running at its Natanz nuclear site, its envoy to the U.N. atomic watchdog said on Tuesday.

“Thanks to our diligent nuclear scientists, two cascades of 348 IR2m centrifuges with almost 4 times the capacity of IR1 are now running …successfully in Natanz,” Kazem Gharibabadi said on Twitter. “Installation of 2 cascades of IR6 centrifuges has also been started in Fordow. There’s more to come soon.”

….. this will allow Iran to enrich nuclear fuel to a point where the manufacture of nuclear bombs will be possible.

How long before Israel strikes ?

end

The Russian “Sputnik V” vaccine is 92% effective against symptomatic Covid cases

(zerohedge)

Russia’s “Sputnik V” Vaccine 92% Effective Against “Symptomatic” COVID Cases

TUESDAY, FEB 02, 2021 – 18:00

As it turns out, the Kremlin wasn’t embellishing when it first said its COVID vaccine, developed by the Gamaleya Institute with financing from Russia’s Sovereign Wealth Fund, was as effective as the best Western vaccines. According to the official data, Russia’s Sputnik V vaccine has 91.6% efficacy rate against symptomatic coronavirus cases.

These preliminary findings are based on an analysis of data from more than 20K, mostly white, participants, 3/4ths of whom received the vaccine, while the rest received a placebo. No serious adverse health impacts were reported; most negative health effects included flu-like symptoms, pain at the injection site and weakness or lethargy,

“Sputnik V” was administered in two injections 21 days apart, just like similar counterparts in the west. In the 21 days after the first dose, there were 16 cases of COVID-19 in the 14,964 people (0.1%) in the vaccine group, and 62 cases of the disease in the 4.9K individuals (1.3%) in the placebo group.

The preliminary findings are based on an analysis of data from more than 20K, mostly white, participants, 3/4ths of whom received the vaccine. The remainder received a placebo.

The trial included 2.1K participants aged 60 and older, and n this subset, the vaccine had 91.8% efficacy against symptomatic disease, according to the Lancet. Similar to the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine, “Sputnik V” is based on a modified version of the adenovirus, a common cold virus, the same technique used to create vaccines from AstraZeneca and SinoVac.

Rates of infection in the placebo group vs. the group of patients who received the vaccine are charted below:

Notably, four deaths were reported during the trial: One person died in the placebo group due to a stroke, while the remaining three deaths occurred in the vaccine group, but, of course, none of these were attributable to the vaccine. 

Unlike the AstraZeneca vaccine, the Sputnik V vaccine uses two variations of the basic adenovirus. Meanwhile, serious side-effects were observed in 68 patients, but 45 of these were in the placebo group.

end

Shockingly Biden does something right

(zerohedge))

US Has Extended New START Nuclear Treaty With Russia For 5 Years: Blinken

WEDNESDAY, FEB 03, 2021 – 15:39

Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced early Wednesday the US has formally agreed to extend the New START treaty with Russia for another five years.

“Extending the New START Treaty ensures we have verifiable limits on Russian ICBMs, SLBMs, and heavy bombers until February 5, 2026,” Blinken said in a statement according to Reuters.

Via Reuters

The landmark treaty, which marks the last major arms control agreement between the US and Russia, limits the number of strategic nuclear weapons maintained by the former Cold War rivals to no more than 1,550 each.

Blinken said in his statement:

Especially during times of tension, verifiable limits on Russia’s intercontinental-range nuclear weapons are vitally important. Extending the New START Treaty makes the United States, US allies and partners, and the world safer. An unconstrained competition would endanger us all.

The prior agreement was set to expire on Feb.5 and its fate was anything but certain, given that both the INF and Open Skies treaties faltered under the past US administration.

It was no secret that the Russians were waiting out Trump, anticipating that the former president’s declared desire to pull out New START would be a moot point should Biden take the White House.

During prior negotiations this past fall, Putin was willing to offer an extension on the landmark nuclear treaty of at least one year without any preconditions in order to save the deal, while at the same time Biden on the campaign was on record as clearly indicated he’d be ready to agree to an unconditional 5-year extension.

Though serious tensions remain, Biden and Putin appeared to find at least this one point of agreement during a Jan.22 phone call over a range of issues, mostly involving Biden raising the top of Russian ‘interference’ in US elections and hacking accusations.

6.Global Issues

Michael Every..on the important worldly topics

(zerohedge)

Rabobank: The World Is Just Fine… If You Wear Two Pairs Of Rose-Colored Glasses

WEDNESDAY, FEB 03, 2021 – 9:29

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Double and quits

What does any rigid system do when under attack? It doubles down.

The much-shorted US stocks bid-up by Redditors are once again all deeply that color, as the buyers failed to keep doubling down. Cue Establishment delirium at the idea that the revolting peasants deliberately ran into the murder hole of the financial castle to clog it up with their bodies in order to ‘show the lords how feudalism really works’.

Dr Fauci is arguing that in order to defeat the new, more infectious strains of Covid-19 –as Israel reports an individual who caught the virus, recovered fully, and then got sick with the new South African strain– we may need to wear two masks, not one(!) Given most people can’t wear one mask properly, or at all, this does not seem to be any more likely to produce the desired outcome from the health ivory tower (zero Covid) than the constant central-bank ivory tower doubling of QE will get them to their outcome (zero deflation). The former has a path laid out by the likes of Yaneer Bar-Yam; but we just get yada-yada; the latter keep failing to jump-start the wage- and investment-driven growth we used to enjoy before they started to target inflation (i.e., wages).

To get that recovery would take major structural reform and a government also prepared to let the economy “run hot” on jobs and wages: we don’t have any. Yes, we likely have the slimmest of majorities for a Covid-19 stimulus package in the US senate after Congressional manoeuvres. However, it is no Green New Deal, Democratic Senator Manchin is opposed to the USD15 an hour minimum wage provision, and while something, it is likely to fall short of the initial USD1.9 trillion floated months ago. It really isn’t any doubling down.

In New Zealand, we did see strong wages data – up 1.1% q/q in Q4 vs. an expected 0.3%, and with employment rising 0.7% y/y vs. an expected -0.1%, and unemployment fell to 4.9% from 5.6%. This is despite the utter destruction of the tourism sector, but obviously yet another housing boom/bubble and bumper agri production is helping in a housing- and agri-led economy. There is even market chatter that the RBNZ will be hiking rates in 2022(!) Good luck with that and keeping NZD at a level where all that lovely agri is affordable. The RBNZ started the inflation-targeting and fiscal prudence paradigm that lies at the root of our new normal: are they really going to try to normalise rates when everyone else is going the currency war route? Didn’t we see that end badly once already? I call quits on that double-down call. After all, Aussie building permits also surged 10.9% m/m, and yet the RBA was dovish this week and is extending QE.

In Europe there is the suggestion that former central-bank governor Mario Draghi should run Italy after the technocratic government finally collapsed. The markets obviously love that idea. It is the epitome of the new double-down trend, like moving Janet Yellen from the Fed to the Treasury, or Christine Lagarde from the Ministry of Economy to the ECB via the IMF. Yet this seems to be the only fiscal and monetary coordination officially approved of: all the de facto debt monetisation seen during 2020 is being covered up, not extolled as the path to recovery. Would Mr. Draghi fiscally pledge to “do whatever it takes” to get Italian unemployment down and wages back up? The Italian people won’t get a new election to see if they approve of this idea or not due to Covid (though Israel will soon hold its second vote under the same conditions). However, a PM Draghi would likely invigorate both Establishment and anti-Establishment forces in equal measure, not just in Italy but globally. Questions would surely need to be asked (if not by the financial press) as to how ‘neutral’, ‘independent’, and ‘apolitical’ a central bank can really be when its top dog can have been part of the political pack, or when they can quit to join said pack.

Meanwhile, Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos has quit. As Bloomberg reports with absolutely no sense of irony, “He’ll transition to the role of executive chair and continue as one of the richest people in the world.” What a waste of talent. Couldn’t he run a finance ministry, or a multilateral, or a central bank? Another “one of the richest people in the world”, Elon Musk, is showing he might have the chops for Secretary of State with his tweet arguing “We will coup whoever we want! Deal with it” in regard to allegations that the US toppled the Bolivian government to ensure cheap supplies of the lithium required for the green auto revolution. Maybe Musk was just grouchy because the SpaceX Mars rocket prototype exploded again, slowing our species’ double-down-and-quit shift to the Red Planet.

On failure to launch, the story that has not gotten much market coverage so far is that China has delayed releasing its annual births data for 2020. Covid-19 provides a rational explanation for why this hasn’t happened. However, some provinces and cities have shown theirs – and they say ‘quits’ far more than ‘double down’. Birth rates have collapsed: Guangzhou -17% y/y; Ningxia Hui -16%; Hefei -23%; Wenzhou -19%; and Taizhou -33%. The South China Morning Post quotes a researcher from a state-backed think tank who states: “We can say that even though the number of births in 2020 might be the lowest in recent decades, it is likely to be the highest in the next few decades.” Market bulls don’t want to hear it, but such demography is destiny, barring a miracle. Where does future growth come from with no kids? How are future pensions to be paid? And India is now expected to overtake China as the world’s most populous country as soon as 2027. That’s not the kind of overtaking we keep hearing about.

There is also no good news on US-China relations. Axios reports the Biden administration will adopt a ‘whole of government’ approach to China, not one of détente; and China’s Politburo member Yang Jiechi just gave a speech that is regarded as not helping to build bridges with D.C. So doubling down.

US relations with Russia are also unlikely to get any better with opposition leader Navalny now sentenced to 3.5 years in prison for violating the conditions of a suspended sentence. They are not likely to improve with Myanmar either, which the State Department says just experienced a coup (on which Elon Musk is silent) and with sanctions to follow. While few follow the country closely, the Burmese government, now toppled, was actually building bridges to China, and the army, now in charge, is the force more suspicious of

end

An email from Robert H to me:

An ill wind for hard-up electricity users | The Conservative Woman

“This is an interesting article. This phenomenon is not being widely reported as it is opposite the narrative of the Reset crowd.

While only an observer of cycles it appears that changing wind formations are in line with changing weather where temperatures are getting colder and not warmer. It seems logical to think that temperatures have an impact on wind and vice versa.

So let me ask a question. What if wind falls off going forward over the next decade or so? What will this do to a society hell bent on eliminating all emissions from fuel sources. Already we have seen indications of electrical capacity stress over battery powered vehicles an”d the like. The elimination of more coal fired plants and the like without careful consideration of potential change impact may well produce a situation where power availability simply may not be available with a new class of stranded assets, within the next decade. And believe me that coal fired plants need upgrading to reduce emissions as do cement plants. Especially since technology exists to do so. One must also remember that electrical generation is not a switch easily turned on, as it takes time to put in place.

Strategically, one might be wise to think differently about the the rush into wind and solar power which already indicates it will not keep up with demand. Because having balanced alternatives may be the answer to building a sustainable economy over the crazed narrow minded efforts to eliminate all emissions. And sustainable economies win over ones that falter and sputter pursuing ideology. And it is one more reason to be optimistic and dare to invest in alternative technologies like carbon capture that possibly hold the keys to sustainable economic power generation with a balance towards being environmentally neutral.

In the meantime, I will keep driving a petrol fueled car and use a gas generator for power backup, which is actually cheaper to operate than current electrical power.

https://www.conservativewoman.co.uk/an-ill-wind-for-hard-up-electricity-users/

Cheers
Robert

Beijing. The waters remain muddy on what this means for regional geopolitics going forwards, but we can add another potential flashpoint to a long and growing list.

But those shorted US stocks are down again, so the world is just fine: if you wear two pairs of rose-tinted glasses that make it look like we already got to Mars.

end
CORONAVIRUS UPDATE/VACCINE/ASTRAZENECA

New Jersey Loosens COVID Restrictions On Restaurants: Live Updates

WEDNESDAY, FEB 03, 2021 – 11:43

Summary:

  • AstraZeneca says vaccine will work against mutants
  • WHO team finally let inside Wuhan lab
  • GSK teams up with CureVac
  • US cases, deaths, hospitalizations decline
  • Global tally for cases tops 103MM, 2.26MM deaths
  • Hong Kong to allow students to return to classes
  • Germany boosts army troops

* * *

Update (1120ET): Following in the footsteps of his colleague, NY Gov. Andrew Cuomo, New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy has just announced a mild, but, for businesses impacted, still important, lifting of the Garden State’s COVID lockdown. Murphy is loosening indoor-dining capacity restrictions for restaurants and other businesses to 35% from 25%. Murphy also lifted the 2200ET curfew on indoor restaurant service. All changes are effective Friday. “We’re able to take this step today because the data says we can,” Murphy said during a Wednesday press briefing.

Meanwhile, across the Hudson from Trenton, NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio confirmed that New York will expand vaccine eligibility to restaurant workers, taxi drivers and people who live in homes for the developmentally disabled. Hizzoner’s decision comes in the footsteps of Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s directive to leave the decision of eligibility expansion up to localities after he decided to reopen indoor dining in the city on Feb. 14.

* * *

Barely half a day after Oxford released more data on the COVID vaccine it developed with AstraZeneca (data that failed to stop France from limiting vaccinations to people under the age of 65) AstraZeneca and Oxford are now coming together to reassure the public that yes, of course, they are already working on an updated version that provides added protection against the mutated vaccination strains.

In other news on the vaccine front, GlaxoSmithKline agreed to work with CureVac to help boost production of the latter’s experimental vaccine and improve the shot to help protect against COVID mutants.

Meanwhile, the WHO has, after a year-plus of trying, finally gotten a team inside the Wuhan laboratory that has been at the center of a US intelligence investigation into the origins of the coronavirus.

In the US, officials continued to see a decline in daily case numbers, while deaths also appeared to decline.

Meanwhile, the number of hospitalized patients, seen as a leading indicator for deaths, continued to slide as well.

Still, a handful of states are in that 500K+ category.  A smaller number of people are being sickened by the virus, according to the latest data, which found that last week saw the lowest number of new cases in the US since November.

On the other hand, as we have noted, more Americans have now received at least one dose of a vaccine than have tested positive for the virus since the pandemic began. So far, 33.7MM doses have been given, according to a state-by-state tally, cited by Bloomberg. An average of 1.32MM doses per day were administered during the last week.

Globally, the world has counted more than 103MM COVID cases, with more than 2.26MM deaths.

Here’s a roundup of other COVID news from overnight:

  • South Korea’s disease control agency says it will apply to import 117,000 doses of the Pfizer vaccine through the global COVAX initiative later this month.
  • New Zealand’s medicine regulator Medsafe has provisionally approved use of the vaccine developed by U.S. drugmaker Pfizer and Germany’s BioNTech. The vaccine is expected to arrive in the country by the end of the first quarter.
  • Chile, the Latin American country that has procured the most vaccines per capita, expanded its inoculation program Wednesday to include the elderly (Source: Bloomberg).
  • Hong Kong to allow up to one-third of a school’s student capacity to return to classes on a half-day basis after the February’s Lunar New Year holiday, double the current capacity (Source: Bloomberg).
  • Moderna offered to supply its coronavirus vaccine to South Africa, in what would be its first deal to sell shots to an African nation, a person familiar with the talks said (Source: Bloomberg).
  • Japan announces rules for the upcoming summer olympics, which will be hosted in the country (Source: Boomberg).

* * *

Finally, German Chancellor Angela Merkel has boosted the number of Army troops helping in the fight against the pandemic by 5K to 25K and will call up more reservists as well, as is under increasing pressure to speed up a lagging vaccination program. In other news, NYC’s health commissioner, Dave Chokshi, has tested positive for COVID-19.

7. OIL ISSUES

end

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings WEDNESDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.2018 DOWN .0018 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS//CORONAVIRUS/PANDEMIC/TRUMP POSITIVE WITH VIRUS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /GREEN

USA/JAPAN YEN 105.05 UP 0.02 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.3631   DOWN   0.0027  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/

USA/CAN 1.2787 DOWN .0006 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  FRIDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL BY 18 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.2018 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE DOWN 16.38 PTS OR .46% 

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 58.76 PTS OR .20% 

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0,90%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 58.76 PTS OR .20% 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 16.38 PTS OR .46% 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.90% 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 284.33 PTS OR 1.00 % INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1837.10

silver:$27.00-

Early WEDNESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 1.122% !!! UP 2 IN POINTS from TUESDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

The 30 yr bond yield 1.898 UP 3  IN BASIS POINTS from TUESDAY night.

USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 91.24 UP 5 CENT(S) from  TUESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers WEDNESDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing  WEDNESDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.06% DOWN 0 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.06.%  DOWN 0   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.12%//DOWN 0 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:0.59 DOWN 6 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 47 points higher than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.46% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.05% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR WEDNESDAY

Closing currency crosses for WEDNESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.2022  DOWN     .0014 or 14 basis points

USA/Japan: 105.05 UP .021 OR YEN DOWN 2  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3655 DOWN .0003 POUND DOWN 3  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar UP 16 basis points to 1.2771

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The USA/Yuan,  CNY: closed AT 6.4611    ON SHORE  (DOWN)..

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.4615  (YUAN DOWN)..

TURKISH LIRA:  7.15  EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.06%

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 2 IN basis points from TUESDAY at 1.121 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 1.905 UP 3 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 91.15 down 5  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for WEDNESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 8.03  0.14%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 98.47 POINTS OR .71%

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 0.06 POINTS 0.00%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 61.90 POINTS or 0.78%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 461.03 POINTS OR 2.09%

WTI Oil price; 56.12 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 58.78 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE RISES:    75.81  THE CROSS LOWER BY 0.35 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE HIGHER BY 35 BASIS PTS)

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES  TO –.46 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price f0r Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OILPRICE 4:30 PM :  55.73//

BRENT :  58.53

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 1.134..up 3 basis points…

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 1.918 up 5 basis points..

EURO/USA 1.2035 ( DOWN 1   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:105.02 UP .013 (YEN UP 2 BASIS POINTS/..

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 91.14 DOWN 6 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.3639 DOWN 19  POINTS

the Turkish lira close: 7.16

the Russian rouble 75.89   DOWN 0.40 Roubles against the uSA dollar. (DOWN 40 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.2778 UP 9 BASIS pts

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.47%

The Dow closed UP 36.12 POINTS OR 0.12%

NASDAQ closed DOWN 67.34 POINTS OR 0.61%


VOLATILITY INDEX:  23.61 CLOSED DOWN 1.96

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 0.192%//libor dropping like a stone

USA trading today in Graph Form

Big-Shorts, Bitcoin, Bond Yields, & Black Gold All Bounce

WEDNESDAY, FEB 03, 2021 – 16:00

After two days of bloodbathery in the most-shorted stocks, today was some relief (or a dead cat bounce)?

Source: Bloomberg

With KOSS, AMC, and BBBY all up (GME gave back most of its gains)…

Source: Bloomberg

And notably, the hedge fund VIP stocks also rose along with the most-shorted…

Source: Bloomberg

Maybe it’s time to stop ‘playing the game’ for a little bit…

The broad market was mixed with the cash open seeing selling, then a bounce back into the last hour, before another weaker close… Nasdaq was the day’s biggest laggard as Small Caps managed to hold gains…

Energy stocks continued their resurgence (after fading into the end of January); Healthcare is the laggard this week…

Source: Bloomberg

After AMZN and GOOGL earnings last night, FANG stocks opened notably higher but were sold significantly into the close…

Source: Bloomberg

KODK was the craziest stock stoday…

Treasury yields rose on the day – we suspect more of the same rate-locks and rotation into a heavy calendar, rather than any ‘growth’ unwinds…

Source: Bloomberg

The 5s30s curve soared to its steepest since 2015…

Source: Bloomberg

The Dollar ended marginally higher on the day…

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos were all higher on the day with Ether leading the charge,

Source: Bloomberg

… breaking to a new record high above $1650

Source: Bloomberg

And Bitcoin topped $37k again…

Source: Bloomberg

Which left ETH at its highest relative to BTC since August 2018…

Source: Bloomberg

WTI surged intraday to top $56, but faded back into the close…

Silver also bounced today but remains below Friday’s close…

But gold was flat…

Finally, we note that while stocks remain at or near record highs and everyone’s excited, there appears to be much uncertainty under the covers with VIX (while down from recent spike highs) remaining almost unprecedentedly high compared to the record highs in stocks. As Bloomberg’s Elena Popina notes, it’s rare to see this VIX mismatch (high VIX and record high stocks)…

Source: Bloomberg

And implied vols are at almost unprecedented highs relative to realized vol…

Source: Bloomberg

The so-called fear gauge remains 30% above its long-term average, and the volatility curve implies elevated uncertainty for months to come.

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

b)MARKET TRADING/USA//Non farm payrolls

ii)Market data/USA

ADP, a private employment study operation reports that the USA rebounded in January aftr a big drop in December.  These guys are always bullish.

(zerohedge)

ADP Employment Rebounds In January After December Drop

WEDNESDAY, FEB 03, 2021 – 8:22

Following December’s disastrous 123k drop (with both goods and services losing jobs), analysts expected a modest 70k rise in ADP employment in January, but were pleasantly surprised by a +174k print (which however needs to be put in the context of December’s upward revision to only a 78k drop).

Source: Bloomberg

Only the Information sector saw job losses…

Source: ADP

“The labor market continues its slow recovery amid COVID-19 headwinds,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute.

“Although job losses were previously concentrated among small and midsized businesses, we are now seeing signs of the prolonged impact of the pandemic on large companies as well.”

Large businesses saw a rebound after losing ground in December…

Source: Bloomberg

…and Service sector jobs soared back

Source: Bloomberg

…presumably as post-election lockdowns were eased.

end

US Services Surveys Soar Amid Inflationary Surge In Costs

WEDNESDAY, FEB 03, 2021 – 10:03

After a mixed bag on the manufacturing side of the US economy (ISM down, PMI up), Markit and ISM report their Services sector surveys today and were expected to both show declines. However, both Services surveys beat expectations.

  • Markit US Manufacturing up to 59.2, Beat expectations
  • Markit US Services up to 58.3, Beat expectations
  • ISM US Manufacturing down to 58.7, Missed expectations
  • ISM US Services up to 58.7, Beat expectations

Source: Bloomberg

And this mixed bag is coming as hard data continues to slump…

Source: Bloomberg

Despite a faster rise in new business, a number of firms reported sufficient capacity to process incoming new work in January.

As a result, companies increased workforce numbers only marginally, and at the slowest pace since July 2020.

The IHS Markit Composite PMI Output Index posted 58.7 in January, up from 55.3 in December, to signal the quickest rise in private sector business activity since March 2015, and the best PMI in the world’s major economies for now (as the rest of the world slows).

Source: Bloomberg

Commenting on the latest survey results, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, said:

A strong start to the year for manufacturing was accompanied by a marked upturn in the service sector, driving business activity growth to the fastest rate for almost six years during January. The improving data set the scene for a strong first quarter, and a rise in business expectations for the year ahead bodes well for the recovery to gain traction as the year proceeds. Companies have become increasingly upbeat amid news of vaccine roll-outs and hopes of further stimulus.

The downside is that prices have risen sharply.

“Deteriorating vendor performance and supplier prices hikes led to the steepest rise in cost burdens since data collection began in October 2009. “

As a result, private sector output charges increased significantly at the start of 2021.

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

This is good;  Florida Governor cracks down on big tech as they will now let residents of Florida sue over censorship. They will provide for a 100,000 daily fine for suspending political candidates.  Should have been done long time ago.

(zerohedge)

Florida Gov. Cracks Down On Big Tech – Lets Residents Sue Over Censorship, $100K Daily Fine For Suspending Political Candidates

TUESDAY, FEB 02, 2021 – 18:40

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R) has taken bold action against Big Tech – announcing several measures to counter widespread censorship of conservatives and promote the free exchange of information.

As reported by Breitbart‘s Allum Bokhari, the measures – announced on Tuesday in a 45-minute speech – include mandatory opt-outs on content filters for Floridians, fines, and grants residents the ability to sue over censorship.

More via Breitbart:

  • Mandatory opt-outs from big tech’s content filters, a solution to tech censorship first proposed by Breitbart News in 2018.
  • A private right of action for Floridian citizens against tech companies that violate this condition.
  • Fines of $100,000 per day levied on tech companies that suspend candidates for elected office in Florida from their platforms.
  • Daily fines for any tech company “that uses their content and user-related algorithms to suppress or prioritize the access of any content related to a political candidate or cause on the ballot.”
  • Greater transparency requirements.
  • Disclosure requirements enforced by Florida’s election authorities for tech companies that favor one candidate over another.
  • Power for the Florida attorney general to bring cases against tech companies that violate these conditions under the state’s Unfair and Deceptive Practices Act.

“What began as a group of upstart companies from the west coast has since transformed into an industry of monopoly communications platforms that monitor, influence, and control the flow of information in our country and among our citizens, and they do this to an extent hitherto unimaginable,” said DeSantis, adding “These platforms have changed from neutral platforms that provided Americans with the freedom to speak to enforcers of preferred narratives. Consequently, these platforms have played an increasingly decisive role in elections, and have negatively impacted Americans who dissent from orthodoxies favored by the Big Tech cartel.”

Watch:

Some 250 million Americans, or around 4 out of every 5 people, have social media accounts.

Other Florida conservatives weighed in on Tuesday’s announcement.

“Florida is taking back the virtual public square as a place where information and ideas can flow freely. We’re demanding transparency from the big tech giants,” said State House Speaker Chris Sprowls in a statement.

“The big tech companies have the duty to allow differing views on their public platforms. No one should be excluded. But let’s be clear: They are targeting conservatives,” said Senate President Wilton Simpson according to local10, adding that it amounts to political censorship.

END

Not good: a new bill in Congress would end USA 2ns amendment rights permanently

(Michael Snyder/American Dream Blog)

H.R. 127: A New Bill In Congress Would Literally End Your 2nd Amendment Rights Permanently

WEDNESDAY, FEB 03, 2021 – 0:00

Authored by Michael Snyder via End of The American Dream blog,

If a new bill that has been introduced in Congress eventually becomes law, the 2nd Amendment will still be in the U.S. Constitution, but for all practical purposes the rights that it is supposed to guarantee will be dead and gone.  H.R. 127 was submitted on January 4th, and if you have not read it yet you can find the full text right here.  It contains a lot of technical language, and so in this article I am going to try to break down what it means very simply.  Now that the Democrats control the White House, the Senate and the House of Representatives, there is going to be a major push to ram through some form of gun control legislation.  If it is not this bill, it will be another one, so we need to be diligent.

One of the biggest things that H.R. 127 would do is that it would create a national firearms registration system that would literally be accessible by anyone

HR 127 establishes a federal firearms registration system that will be accessible by federal, state, and local governments, including the military – even the GENERAL PUBLIC! The system will track the make, model, and serial number of all firearms, their owners, the dates they were acquired, and where they are being stored.

So if your neighbor, a co-worker, or someone that just wanted to rob your home wanted to know how you were armed, all they would have to do would be to look it up in the firearms registration system.

This bill would also apply retroactively.

Within three months, you would have to report to the government where you bought all of your guns, when they were purchased, and where they are currently being stored.

Needless to say, if the government knows where all of your guns are being stored, it would make it that much easier to grab them from you at some future date.

H.R. 127 would also require all gun owners to be federally licensed.

That would mean that owning a gun would no longer be a right.  Instead, it would be reduced to a “privilege” that the government could take away at any time.

According to the bill, the licensing procedure would include “a psychological evaluation”

The licensing requirement mandates that the license applicant undergoes a criminal background check, and then submits to a psychological evaluation to determine whether the person is psychologically unsuited to possess a firearm. Successful licensees must show they have an insurance policy which will cost $800.

I know a lot of guys out there that would definitely not want to go through any sort of a “psychological evaluation” by a government-approved psychologist.

And it wouldn’t just be you that would get interviewed.

According to the bill, spouses and other family members would be interviewed as well

For the psychological evaluation, a licensed psychologist will interview individuals’ spouses and at least two other family members or associates to “further determine the state of the mental emotional, and relational stability of the individual in relation to firearms.” Licenses will be denied to individuals hospitalized for issues such as depressive episodes; no duration for license disability is specified, and it does not matter whether the individual sought help voluntarily.

The goal, of course, is to make owning guns as difficult as possible.

Democrats figure that if they can put up as many barriers to gun ownership as possible, a lot less people will end up owning them.

Thirdly, this bill would also greatly restrict the type of ammunition that you can own

Finally, HR 127 also criminalizes the possession of “large-capacity magazines” (those carrying greater than 10 rounds) and “ammunition that is 0.50 caliber or greater.”

I know that all of this sounds utterly ridiculous, but the restrictions in this bill actually sound very, very similar to what Joe Biden has been publicly proposing

During the 2020 campaign, Joe Biden promised a long list of gun control regulations. There is a reason that Michael Bloomberg spent $125 million helping Biden in Florida and something over $600 million nationally in the general election.

The agenda includes: classifying many semi-automatic rifles and magazines holding more than 10 bullets as Class 3 weapons (which can require nine months or more for approval and a $200 fee), national gun licensing, “red flag” laws that let judges take away people’s guns without a hearing, background checks on the private transfer of guns, and bans on some semi-automatic firearms that happen to look like military weapons.

Gun control is very high on the list of things that Joe Biden wants to get accomplished during the next four years.

So like I said, if it isn’t this bill, it will be another one that is similar.

They are coming for your 2nd Amendment, and they aren’t going to stop until they get what they want.

Meanwhile, this is all happening at a time when murder rates all across America are going through the roof

“Homicide rates were higher during every month of 2020 relative to rates from the previous year,” the report states, calling the 30 percent surge “a large and troubling increase that has no modern precedent.”

We have never seen major city murder rates jump by an average of 30 percent in a single year.

Things are getting really crazy out there, and many believe that 2021 will be even worse.

For almost a year, there has been civil unrest in our cities on an almost nightly basis.  As I write this, civil unrest has erupted in Rochester, New York.  We live at a time when rioting, looting, arson and vandalism have become commonplace, and the senseless violence that we have witnessed so far is just the leading edge of the storm.

Millions of Americans can see what is happening to our society and they are quite concerned.  2020 was a record year for gun sales in the United States, and dealers have reported that demand is extremely strong so far in 2021 as well.

The Democrats do not like this one bit, and they are going to do their very best to put a stop to it.

Please let your friends, family and contacts know about H.R. 127, because an all-out attack on the 2nd Amendment is coming, but at this point most people are not even aware that it is about to happen.

*  *  *

Michael’s new book entitled “Lost Prophecies Of The Future Of America” is now available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.

end
Former CBP head Mark Morgan states that Biden has decimated border protections with a stroke of a pen
(Watson SummitNews)

Former CBP Head: Biden Has Decimated Border Protections With “Stroke Of A Pen”

WEDNESDAY, FEB 03, 2021 – 11:20

Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,

Former Acting U.S. Customs and Border Protection Commissioner Mark Morgan slammed the Biden administration Tuesday for undoing significant border protections put into place by President Trump.

Morgan first took aim at White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki for trashing Trump’s efforts to secure the border, and attributing the infamous Obama/Biden ‘kids in cages’ and family separation policy to Trump.

After Psaki had spoken, calling Trump’s border policies “horrific”, Morgan stated that “There isn’t enough time to address all the spin and misinformation that the Press Secretary just sent out.”

Morgan outlined that agencies within the Trump administration have been “working tirelessly” to reunite families separated at the border.

Morgan explained that the “broken immigration system was exploited” by human smugglers and cartels who knew US authorities could not detain children.

Morgan further reeled off a list of actions by the Biden administration that have put border officers in grave danger.

“Just in a couple of weeks [Biden has] decimated our ability to secure this border, and keep our country safe,” Morgan warned, adding that Biden has “completely dismissed” the pleas of those working on the border.

In a further appearance on National Desk, Morgan called out the Democrat hypocrisy of walling off Capitol Hill, noting  “It’s okay to put walls up around the Capitol, protect our congressional members, but it’s not okay to construct walls on our borders of our country to protect every American citizen.”

In a third appearance, on Fox News, Morgan urged that “with a stroke of a pen” Biden “has made our border less secure, our country less safe and endangered the lives’ of those protecting the U.S.”

Biden signed three more executive orders on immigration Tuesday, taking the total to now over 40.

“There’s a lot of talk, with good reason, about the number of executive orders that I have signed. I’m not making new law. I’m eliminating bad policy,” Biden declared before signing the orders to create a task force to reunite separated families, as Morgan was previously discussing, as well as two further orders to “address the root causes of migration” and to promote “immigrant integration and inclusion,” with another a task force on “new Americans.”

“This is about how America is safer, stronger, more prosperous when we have a fair, orderly, and humane legal immigration system,” Biden declared.

After signing the orders Biden refused to answer any questions:

In addition to the EOs, the DHS announced this week that special vaccination sites will be opened for illegals, and that ICE and CBP “will not conduct enforcement operations at or near” the sites.

Morgan described Biden’s orders as “another significant step reinstating incentives for and loopholes to be exploited by migrants to enter our country illegally.”

END

GM joins Nissan and Ford in suspending production due to semiconductor shortage

(zerohedge)

GM Joins Nissan & Ford In Suspending Production Due To Semi Shortage

WEDNESDAY, FEB 03, 2021 – 12:15

General Motors has announced it is the latest victim of the global semiconductor shortage in the auto industry. 

Mid-day on Wednesday the U.S. automaker announced that the shortage would “impact production in 2021”, according to StreetInsider. The company said in a statement that “semiconductor supply for the global auto industry remains very fluid”.

It continued: “Our supply chain organization is working closely with our supply base to find solutions for our suppliers’ semiconductor requirements and to mitigate impacts on GM. Despite our mitigation efforts, the semiconductor shortage will impact GM production in 2021.”

The automaker said it is “currently assessing the overall impact, but our focus is to keep producing our most in-demand products – including full-size trucks and SUVs and Corvettes – for our customers.”

The company said the following GM assembly plants will take downtime on all shifts the week of Monday, Feb. 8:

  • Fairfax (Kansas)
  • CAMI (Ingersoll, Ontario)
  • San Luis Potosi (Mexico)

“In addition, we will take downtime at our Bupyeong 2 assembly plant in Korea and operate at half capacity beginning the week of Feb. 8.” the company announced. “Due to the fluidity around the availability of parts, our current plan is to update the plants each week. Our intent is to make up as much production lost at these plants as possible. Importantly, this issue will not impact our commitment to an all-electric future. We will provide further details on this matter when we report our 2020 earnings on Feb. 10.”

Nissan also announced Wednesday that it had fallen victim to the shortage. As a result, Nissan said it would suspend some truck production at its Mississippi plant due to the shortage of chips. Nissan is struggling to make “short term production adjustments”, according to Yahoo Finance, at its plants in North America.

The stoppage is starting with three non-production days at the Canton, Mississippi plant. Further delays could continue if the semi shortage continues to negatively affect business.

We also noted just hours ago that Ford had also announced it was making more production cuts and temporary layoffs at its Chicago Assembly Plant. The most recent round of layoffs is also being attributed to the supply chain disruptions in semiconductors, according to The Pantagraph.

The affected plants, which will be subject to layoffs or shift reductions, are:

  • Dearborn Assembly Plant, which makes the F-150 pickup.
  • Kansas City Assembly Plant, which makes the F-150
  • Louisville Assembly Plant, which makes the Ford Escape and Lincoln Corsair
  • Chicago Assembly Plant, which makes the Explorer, Police Interceptor and Lincoln Aviator

“At the Chicago Assembly Plant, two shifts will be laid off next week,” the report says.

A letter written by UAW Local 551 Chairman Coby Millender that has been circulating in Chicago warns workers to be wise with their finances:

“The company has informed us that beginning next week, they want to have B and C crew laid off initially for one week with a strong potential for additional weeks. It’s totally based on how soon the supplier resolves this issue. I just wanted to make you aware 551, so that you can begin to plan accordingly. Be wise with your finances.”

Recall, we wrote just days ago how the industry was “panicked” about the semi shortage. Major players like VW, Toyota and GM are still suffering from a shortage of chips that are becoming more common in everyday vehicles, we noted. The drain on the supply chain has come from a corresponding rise in the sales of gaming consoles, TVs and computers – mostly as a result of the pandemic. The chips are now being used in everything from vehicle entertainment centers to anti-lock brakes.

Simply put, as China rampantly stocked up on chips amid fears of the Huawei trade wars, global supply has been eviscerated.

END

Biden drops Dept of Justice Yale discrimination suit for no apparent reason

(zerohedge)

Biden DOJ Drops Yale Discrimination Suit After Trump DOJ Found Whites, Asians Treated Unfairly

WEDNESDAY, FEB 03, 2021 – 13:16

After the Trump Justice Department sued Yale following the results of a 2-year Civil Rights investigation which found “long-standing and ongoing” race-based discrimination, the Biden DOJ just dismissed the case without explanation.

On Wednesday, prosecutors submitted a notice to drop the case in the US District Court in the District of Connecticut, calling the dismissal “voluntary.”

The Trump DOJ had argued that the Ivy League university had violated federal civil rights law for “at least 50 years,” by favoring Black and Hispanic students over Whites and Asians, according to The Hill.

The legal battle represented one of the Trump administration’s moves to challenge affirmative action programs aimed at increasing diversity on campus, which some conservatives consider unfair and illegal.

Yale, which staunchly defended its admission practices, praised the DOJ’s decision to drop the case in a statement, saying it was “gratified” by the decision. –The Hill

“Our admissions process has allowed Yale College to assemble an unparalleled student body, which is distinguished by its academic excellence and diversity,” argued the university. “Yale has steadfastly maintained that its process complies fully with Supreme Court precedent, and we are confident that the Justice Department will agree.”

The Trump administration notably instituted several measures to prevent universities from considering race as a factor during admissions, even joining a similar lawsuit against Harvard University.

END

Bubbles everywhere:  The Fed is fueling rampant homeprice appreciation

(Wolf Richter)

“The Fed’s Monetary Punchbowl Is Fueling Rampant Home Price Appreciation”: AEI

WEDNESDAY, FEB 03, 2021 – 14:20

Authored by Wolf Richter via WolfStreet.com,

During the press conference following the FOMC meeting last week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell was asked by different reporters about the craziness going on in the stock market, the chaotic thingy with GameStop, corporate debt, and the housing market.

The fact that he was asked several times about the exuberant nuttiness in asset prices shows that by now everyone has picked up on it. And people are increasingly incredulous that the Fed would continue with its monetary policies in face of these markets.

Powell brushed off the GameStop thingy and gave his usual it’s-not-our-fault and it’s-never-ever-our-fault justifications for the exuberant nuttiness in the markets. The near-0% interest rates and $3 trillion in QE in just a few months had nothing to do with anything, but the drivers of the nuttiness have been the “expectations about vaccines” and “fiscal policy,” he said (transcript). “Those are the news items that have been driving asset values in recent months.”

Upon hearing this, people globally were just rolling up their eyes. And a reporter challenged him softly about the housing market – the 9% surge in prices from already lofty levels. “Are you concerned about a bubble forming there yet? And is there a price increase that you’re looking at where it might change the level of mortgage-backed securities the Fed is buying?”

That price surge “we think is a passing phenomenon,” he said. “There’s a one-time thing happening with people who are spending all of their time in their house. And they’re thinking either I need a bigger house, or I need another house, and a different house. Or a second house in some cases. So there’s a one-time shift in demand that we think will get satisfied, also that will call forth supply. And we think that those price increases are unlikely to be sustained for all of those reasons.”

He said this after having said out of the other side of his mouth, “the housing sector has more than fully recovered from the downturn, supported in part by low mortgage interest rates.

And he never responded to the question about changing – reducing – the mounts of mortgage-backed securities the Fed is buying.

Quoting Powell’s “the housing sector has more than fully recovered from the downturn,” the American Enterprise Institute Housing Center said in a presentation this week that therefore “there is no justification for continuing or increasing investment in agency MBS.”

Here are some of the points of the AEI’s presentation. It demonstrates how the Fed has gone nuts with its asset purchases and interest rate repression.

Mortgage originations and refis set new records

In 2020, an all-time record $4.04 trillion in mortgages were originated. Cash-out refis shot up 55% to a new record, and no-cash-out refis shot up 185% to a new record (shaded area). This monthly chart goes through October. The AEI says that it expects November, December, and January refi counts to remain near their October levels:

“The Fed’s Monetary Punchbowl Is Fueling Rampant Home Price Appreciation”: AEI

The Fed has used its monetary policy tools, including purchasing large quantities of MBS, to push mortgage rates to record lows, though they have bounced off a tiny bit in recent weeks:

And this “monetary punchbowl is fueling rampant home price appreciation,” the AEI said. Its preliminary national Home Price Appreciation (HPA) index for December has risen to 11.0%, up from 6.0% a year earlier, “due to lower mortgage rates.” And the AEI estimates that the rate of HPA “will further accelerate over the coming months” – with the national average heading closer to 14% year-over-year:

Home price appreciation by price tier: The medium-high (yellow line) and high (blue line) price tiers, “which are more dependent on the monetary punch bowl,” are showing the strongest rates of price appreciation. “This is a trend reversal, since historically the low price tier has shown the fastest year-over-year HPA”:

“The FOMC Is Misdiagnosing Its Impact on the Housing Market.”

The AEI threw cold water on Powell’s statement that the home price surge is “a one-time shift in demand that we think will get satisfied, also that will call forth supply,” and that therefore “those price increases are unlikely to be sustained.”

Home price appreciation “is exploding, with no end in sight,” The AEI says.

In the medium-high and high price tiers – “think move-up buyers” – where prices have surged the most, the default risk is relatively low due to “minimal leverage” and the “added buying power” from work-from-home. But the “arbitrage opportunity” that the shift to work-from-home offers by moving to cheaper areas that are further out in the suburbs of the same metro or moving to a less expensive metro “will likely take many years to play out.”

Default risks are higher in the low to medium price tiers – “think first-time buyers” – since they’re “much more highly leveraged” and work-from-home is less prevalent in these income categories. And in these price tiers, “affordability continues to worsen, even in places that used to be more affordable.”

And so the AEI summarizes that “there is no justification” for the Fed to continue its purchases of mortgage-backed securities.

*  *  *

Enjoy reading WOLF STREET and want to support it? Using ad blockers – I totally get why – but want to support the site? You can donate. I appreciate it immensely. 

end

iv) Swamp commentaries

Just awful!

Prosecution Of Top Officials “Unlikely” Outcome Of Durham ‘Russiagate’ Probe, Report

WEDNESDAY, FEB 03, 2021 – 15:20

Authored by Douglass Braff via SaraACarter.com,

While Special Counsel John Durham’s investigation into the origins of the Trump-Russia probe is generally focused on the FBI’s activities, sources familiar with the investigation told Fox News the prosecution of high-ranking FBI officials, such as former Director James Comey, is “unlikely.”

In a report published Tuesday, Fox News reports that sources told the publication that the investigation is ongoing and that Durham last year concluded the part of his investigation looking into the CIA and he is now examining the FBI’s activities.

Additionally, another source told the news outlet that the special counsel had been pursuing “new and credible leads” through the end of the Trump administration, however, Fox News noted that it is unclear at this point what those lines of inquiry entail.

Moreover, a spokesperson for Durham told the outlet that they had “no comment from Mr. Durham.”

Durham’s probe is looking into the origins of former Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation into alleged Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election as well as now-debunked collusion between Russian officials and the Trump campaign. Former President Donald Trump and conservatives have called Mueller’s yearlong probe a “witch hunt” and accused it of being motivated by anti-Trump animus.

Mueller’s investigation yielded no evidence that collusion occurred between the Trump campaign and Russian officials during the 2016 election.

Tuesday’s report comes after the first and only criminal sentencing stemming from Durham’s investigation was issued last week.

Last Friday, Kevin Clinesmith, a former FBI lawyer, was sentenced to one year of probation and 400 hours of community service for altering an email during the Mueller’s investigation that was used as grounds for the surveillance of former Trump campaign adviser Carter Page.

Previously, Comey has said that investigators have yet to reach out to him.

“I have had no contact with him and haven’t talked to him,” the former FBI director told CBS News’ “Face the Nation” back in August.

“I can’t imagine that I’m a target.”

Last summer, Durham’s team also questioned former CIA Director John Brennan for about eight hours at the CIA headquarters. Brennan later said through a spokesman he was assured he was “not a target,” according to Fox News.

Back in December, Brennan told “Fox News Sunday” host Chris Wallace that he had no issue with Durham’s investigation extending into 2021 and also divulged briefly about the eight-hour session.

“I think that is fine, I have no problems with it,” the former CIA director said, adding that Durham’s team already talked with him for eight hours. “I do believe that John Durham is going to carry out his responsibilities ably and hopefully not with any political influence.”

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

BBG: GameStop Extends Drop, Falls Below $100 as Rally Evaporates – GameStop fell as much as 60% to $90…AMC Entertainment fell as much as 50%…S&P 500 Index up 1.5%

GameStop jumps over $150 after earlier trading below $75 in another volatile session for the video-game retailer   https://trib.al/d8G8aMQ

Bitcoin Price Jumps as Much as 6% to Surpass $35,000 – Bloomberg

Elon Musk declared that he’s a supporter of the digital coin on social audio app Clubhouse…

Tesla Officially Recalls 134,951 Vehicles, Musk Says He’s “Off Twitter” For A While

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/tesla-officially-recalls-134951-model-s-and-model-x-vehicles

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis Launches Ambitious Crackdown on Big Tech

Daily fines for any tech company “that uses their content and user-related algorithms to suppress or prioritize the access of any content related to a political candidate or cause on the ballot.”…

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2021/02/02/florida-gov-ron-desantis-launches-ambitious-crackdown-on-big-tech/

The ECB Is Playing a Dangerous Game with “Collective Action Clauses” on Bonds

A bond’s value can be legally reduced by the issuer in times of hardship… Now imagine the bonds being issued by Ireland and Greece and containing CACs. Will banks be likely to lend out cash reserves when the next-best store of value they might have is a junk bond that can be devalued at a moment’s notice?  Without being able to sell these bonds on, the ECB will be forced to retain them on its own balance sheet… https://mises.org/wire/ecb-playing-dangerous-game-collective-action-clauses-bonds

REVEALED: Biden Advisers’ Deep Ties to Chinese Military, Communist Party Propaganda

Ash Carter, an Obama-era Secretary of Defense, leads the Belfer Center, and Eric Rosenbach, fellow Obama administration national security alum, leads the China initiative.  Jake Sullivan, Biden’s National Security Adviser, has served as a Senior Fellow at the Belfer Center…

https://thenationalpulse.com/exclusive/harvard-belfer-china-pushes-ccp-propaganda/

Pentagon Clears Out Advisory Boards to Oust Last-Minute Trump Picks

With clean sweep, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin avoids selectively firing Trump supporters

https://www.wsj.com/articles/defense-chief-clears-out-pentagon-advisory-boards-to-oust-last-minute-trump-picks-11612289262

@RaheemKassam: Remember, when Donald Trump wanted to fire one Obama holdover he was accused of bribing Ukraine and impeached.

US Secretary of State Blinken says that Iran could now be ‘weeks’ away from having material to build a nuclear bomb – NBC News

https://www.nbcnews.com/nightly-news/video/blinken-says-iran-possibly-closer-to-enough-material-for-nuclear-bomb-100368965748

After the close yesterday, Dem Sen. Elizabeth Warren plans to introduce wealth tax

The wealth tax would apply those with more than $50 million in assets. The tax would be equal to 2 percent, but would rise for those who have assets valued at more than $1 billion. Warren’s initial proposal called for the surtax to rise to 3% — though she later raised the top rate to 6%

https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/elizabeth-warren-introduce-wealth-tax

Today – Amazon and Google could dictate morning trading.  Amazon initially surged after the close but then plunged.  Google rallied as much as 9% but rescinded 1/3 of the gain.  Retail traders might pour into these prime trading sardines on and just after the NYSE open.  If operators or investors are sellers, the early rallies could disappear, which could encumber the general stock market.

What effect will Sen. Warren’s wealth tax proposal have on stocks?  The Street, Big Tech and corporate billionaires that almost exclusively fund Democrats might soon get the government they deserve.  But, it could devastate the US economy and harm working-class Americans.

Lenin: The rich and the rogues are two sides of the same coin, they are the two principal categories of parasites which capitalism fostered; they are the principal enemies of socialism. These enemies must be placed under the special surveillance of the entire people; they must be ruthlessly punished for the slightest violation of the laws and regulations of socialist society…Thousands of practical forms and methods of accounting and controlling the rich, the rogues and the idlers must be devised…This is the work in which talented organisers[Like Obama?] should come to the fore in practice and be promoted to work in state administration…  https://www.marxists.org/archive/lenin/works/1917/dec/25.htm

White House Reporters: Biden Team Wanted Our Questions in Advance

Concerns among the White House press corps… they are coordinating with political communications staffers… https://www.thedailybeast.com/white-house-reporters-say-biden-team-asked-them-for-questions-in-advance

NYT: Trump’s Sleight of Hand: Shouting Fraud, Pocketing Donors’ Cash for Future

In November and December as hundreds of thousands of trusting supporters listened and opened their wallets… Mr. Trump and the G.O.P. stored away much of the money — $175 million or so… Only about $10 million spent by Mr. Trump’s campaign went to actual legal costs… Only about a dozen donors gave $25,000 or more to one of Mr. Trump’s committees after Nov. 24…

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/01/us/politics/trump-cash.html?s=02#click=https://t.co/5F9t6NGQ8R

We don’t think that Trump will be the GOP Presidential Candidate in 2024 for a variety of reasons, with Trump fatigue and DJT’s waning interest/effort being the chief two factors.  The Dems’ hate-induced impeachment retribution will only make Trump a martyr in the short term.  DJT will be a kingmaker in 2022; he will exact retribution on RINOs and the GOPe, particularly Mitch McConnell and his ilk.

Democrats reveal their impeachment trial plan accusing Donald Trump of ‘a betrayal of historic proportions’   https://trib.al/KkEjsP7

@TrumpWarRoom: Sen. Lindsey Graham, warns Democrats about calling witnesses during impeachment: “We’ll want the FBI to come in and tell us about how people pre-planned this attack and what happened with the security footprint at the Capitol. You open up Pandora’s Box if you call one witness.”   https://twitter.com/TrumpWarRoom/status/1356596800711495681

Trump Lawyers File Response to House Impeachment Brief: ‘Unconstitutional … Bill of Attainder’

In their 14-page response, Trump’s legal team, led by Bruce L. Castor, Jr., and David Schoen, argue that the Senate cannot try a president who has left office. They also reject the House’s attempt to argue that the president should be barred from any future public office by the 14th Amendment, dismissing claims that he led an insurrection. They add that passing any resolution to bar Trump “would constitute a Bill of Attainder in violation of Art. I, Sec. 9. Cl. 3” of the Constitution

    Trump’s lawyers also argue that his claims that the 2020 election was fraudulent are protected by the First Amendment… They also argue that the House of Representatives violated Trump’s due process rights by ignoring the impeachment procedures… Finally, they note Chief Justice John Roberts declined to preside, leaving “a partisan Senator who will purportedly also act as a juror,” unfairly.

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2021/02/02/trump-lawyers-file-response-to-house-impeachment-brief-unconstitutional-bill-of-attainder/

Axios’s @lachlan: In December, Hunter Biden hired a new criminal defense lawyer. A month later, on inauguration day, one of his close colleagues was appointed as the acting head of DOJ’s criminal division

As House GOP faces decision on its future, McConnell defends Cheney, rebukes Greene in rare set of statements – Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) on Monday delivered a scathing rebuke of Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene’s actions and defended Rep. Liz Cheney’s decision to vote to impeach former president Donald Trump, weighing in for the first time on the criticism facing both lawmakers…

    “Loony lies and conspiracy theories are cancer for the Republican Party and our country,” McConnell said… Greene responded Monday night on Twitter. “The real cancer for the Republican Party is weak Republicans who only know how to lose gracefully,” she said. “This is why we are losing our country.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/02/01/house-gop-faces-decision-its-future-mcconnell-defends-cheney-rebukes-greene-rare-set-statements/

@MZHemingway: GOP voters would probably like GOP leaders to have fought the anti-Trump #Resistance, the copious lies of Big Media, the censorship of Big Tech, & the political advances of the left even a hundredth as much as they fight an unimportant political neophyte backbencher in the House.

https://www.axios.com/hunter-biden-ex-colleague-doj-job-be5c0c8e-c65d-4ce0-a2f9-761a118e7b08.html

@ColumbiaBugle: Can we dispense with the myth that GOP leadership acts in the best interest of the party?McConnell lost GA and the Senate majority. McCarthy and McConnell continue to attack members of their own Republican caucus and lie about President Trump.

When a Bernie supporter tried to assassinate dozens of GOP reps and almost killed Rep. Scalise due to the GOP’s stance on healthcare, do you recall McConnell’s rebuke to Dems for inciting violence?  When Dem Sen. Schumer agitated a mob at the Supreme Court and threatened justices over abortion, do you recall McConnell’s rebuke of Chuckie?  Can you recall how McConnell defended Trump from Mueller, bogus Russia Collusion charges and Ukraine/impeachment fabrications?

California Rep. Speier Says Republicans Should Be Called “Terrorists”

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/california-rep-speier-says-republicans-should-be-called-terrorists

Trump supporter flagged with facial recognition technology at airport, interrogated by DHS, FBI

Kurtbek explained that she did travel to Washington to attend the Jan. 6 pro-Trump rally, but she was nowhere near where the siege occurred… “Are we as Americans no longer allowed the right to assemble?” Kurtbek wondered. “Have we ever been the land of the free or has it all been an illusion? Is that why Trump was so hated?… I had been flagged by my government as a potential domestic terrorist simply because I attended a rally in support of the president,” Kurtbek said, reflecting on the situation. “Our rights as American citizens have been removed and the government is using this incident to intimidate those with differing views into compliance.

https://thepostmillennial.com/exclusive-trump-supporter-flagged-with-facial-recognition-technology-at-airport-interrogated-by-dhs-fbi

Enemies of the State vs. Enemies of the People by Real Clear Politics’ Frank Miele

I didn’t declare war on the establishment; it declared war on me… It declared war on me when it told me my ideas weren’t worthy of debate and discussion or that they were even so dangerous they couldn’t be shared publicly.  It declared war on me when it used the police powers of the FBI and CIA to first spy on a presidential candidate and then worked to undermine the administration of that candidate after he was elected… It declared war on me when it offered citizenship to illegal aliens and shipped American jobs to China… It declared war on me when it said that defending the Constitution’s rules on federal elections is sedition.  It declared war on me when it told me that I was a domestic terrorist if I didn’t believe the government’s official pronouncements about elections, about free speech, and about right and wrong… https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2021/02/01/enemies_of_the_state_vs_enemies_of_the_people_145145.html

Hoover Institute: The Sordid Origin of Hate-Speech Laws

European states and the U.S. shared the view that human rights should protect rather than limit freedom of expression.  Rather, the introduction of hate-speech prohibitions into international law was championed in its heyday by the Soviet Union and allies. Their motive was readily apparent.  The communist countries sought to exploit such laws to limit free speech…

    The Soviet Union presented a proposal that included an obligation to prohibit “Any advocacy of national, racial, or religious hostility or of national exclusiveness or hatred and contempt, as well as any action establishing a privilege or a discrimination based on distinctions of race, nationality, or religion constitute a crime and shall be punishable under the law of the state.” The U.S. and Belgian experts vociferously opposed this proposal and sought to prevent a vote upon it…

    Respect for freedom of expression is the hallmark of free societies and the first right to be circumscribed by illiberal states…   https://www.hoover.org/research/sordid-origin-hate-speech-laws

Durham probe focused on FBI, but prosecution of high-level officials like Comey ‘unlikely’: sources

Sources told Fox News that Durham completed the CIA portion of his investigation last year and has shifted his focus to activities of the FBI  https://www.foxnews.com/politics/durham-probe-focused-on-fbi-cia-completed

@gunpolicy: 4,317,804 firearm background checks were initiated with the FBI in January 2021, making it the highest monthly number on record and the first over 4 million. https://fbi.gov/file-repositor

Well that is all for today

I will see you THURSDAY night.

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