FEB 17//GOLD DOWN $27.35 TO $1773.65//SILVER UP ONE CENT TO $27.29//GOLD STANDING AT THE COMEX RISES TO 109.6 TONNNES//SILVER OZ STANDING RISES TO 11.1 MILLION OZ//CORONAVIRUS UPDATES/VACCINE UPDATE/5 VERY YOUNG ISRAELI CHILDREN HIT WITH THE COVID 19 AS IT MUTATES// RONAN MANLY ON ANOTHER SILVER FUND THAT CHANGES ITS PROSPECTUS//IRAN SET TO BLOCK INSPECTORS FROM NUCLEAR SITES//DALLAS TEXAS IN A DEEP FREEZE, NO ELECTRICITY, NO WATER, NO FOOD//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

GOLD:$1773.65 DOWN  $27.35   The quote is London spot price

Silver:$27.29. UP  $0.01   London spot price ( cash market)

your data…

 

Closing access prices:  London spot

i)Gold : $1776.20  LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

ii)SILVER:  $27.36//LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

Physical coins on the move, with or without the derivative price

Gold Eagles now showing +$162 to spot. Silver Eagles show +$8.50 to spot.

Editorial of The New York Sun | February 1, 2021

China is out for the entire week, coming back on Thursday so pay no attention to the pricing of gold/silver.

end

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COMEX DATA

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

receiving today: 453/731

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: FEBRUARY 2021 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,797.200000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 02/16/2021 DELIVERY DATE: 02/18/2021
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
072 C GOLDMAN 493 2
118 H MACQUARIE FUT 1
323 H HSBC 1
332 H STANDARD CHARTE 59
363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 235
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 19
555 H BNP PARIBAS SEC 2
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 54
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 60
661 C JP MORGAN 392
661 H JP MORGAN 61
686 C STONEX FINANCIA 9
709 H BARCLAYS 40
800 C MAREX SPEC 3 4
880 C CITIGROUP 10
905 C ADM 17
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 731 731
MONTH TO DATE: 32,831

ISSUED: 0

GOLDMAN SACHS STOPPED 2 CONTRACTS.

 
 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  FEB. CONTRACT: 731 NOTICE(S) FOR 73100 OZ  (2.2737 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  32831 NOTICES FOR 3,283,100 OZ  (102.318 tonnes) 

SILVER//FEB CONTRACT

 

30 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 150,000  OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month: 1865 for 9,325,000  oz

BITCOIN MORNING QUOTE  $51,420  UP 2952 dollars

BITCOIN AFTERNOON QUOTE.:$52,333  UP 3865 DOLLARS .

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

GLD AND SLV INVENTORIES:

WITH GOLD DOWN $27.35  AND NO PHYSICAL TO BE FOUND ANYWHERE:

WITH ALL REFINER CLOSED//MEXICO ORDERING ALL MINES SHUT:   WHERE ARE THEY GETTING THE “PHYSICAL?

A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.54 TONNES FROM THE GLD

GLD: 1,136.68 TONNES OF GOLD//

WITH SILVER UP 1 CENT TODAY: AND WITH NO SILVER AROUND

WHAT ON EARTH IS GOING ON???

ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV..A SMALL DEPOSIT OF .83,000 OZ INTO THE SLV//

INVENTORY RESTS AT:

SLV: 628.623  MILLION OZ./

 

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

THE COMEX OI IN SILVER ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 1198 CONTRACTS FROM 182,346 UP TO 183,544, AND CLOSER TO OUR NEW RECORD OF 244,710, (FEB 25/2020. THE GAIN IN OI OCCURRED DESPITE OUR  $0.03 LOSS IN SILVER PRICINGAT THE COMEX. IT SEEMS THAT THE GAIN IN COMEX OI IS  DUE TO HUGE BANKER AND ALGO  SHORT COVERING//SOME REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING..  COUPLED AGAINST A STRONG EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. WE ALSO HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION, AND A STRONG INCREASE FOR SILVER OUNCES STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR FEB. WE HAD A STRONG NET GAIN IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 3450 CONTRACTS  (SEE CALCULATIONS BELOW).

WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A STRONG  NUMBER OF  COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE:  1450,, AS WE HAD THE FOLLOWING ISSUANCE:  MARCH  1450 MAY: 0 AND ZERO ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE 1450 CONTRACTS. THE BANKERS ARE NOW BEING BITTEN BY THOSE SERIAL FORWARDS (EFP’S CIRCULATING IN LONDON)AS THEY ARE NOW BEING EXERCISED AND COMING BACK TO NEW YORK FOR REDEMPTION OF METAL.  THE COST TO SERVICE THESE SERIAL FORWARDS IS HIGH TO OUR BANKERS  BUT THEY HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO ISSUE A FEW OF THEM!

HISTORY OF SILVER OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR THE PAST 26 MONTHS.

 

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

7.32     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

2.630     MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOV.

20.970   MILLION OZ  FINAL STANDING IN DEC

5.075     MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JAN

1.480    MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN FEB

23.005  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAR

4.660  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR APRIL

45.220 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAY

2.205  MILLION OF FINAL STANDING FOR JUNE

86.470 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JULY.

6.475 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN AUGUST

55.400 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN SEPT

8.900 MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT.

3.950 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN NOV.

46.685 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR DEC.

6.890 MILLION FINAL STANDING FOR JAN 2021

11.155  MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING FOR FEB 2021,

TUESDAY,AGAIN OUR CROOKS USED COPIOUS PAPER IN ORDER TO LIQUIDATE SILVER’S PRICE…AND THEY WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.03) ).. AND, OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE ANY SILVER LONGS AS WE HAD A STRONG GAIN IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES (2648 CONTRACTS). NO DOUBT THE TOTAL GAIN IN OI IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES WERE DUE TO i) HUGE BANKER/ALGO SHORT COVERING//REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING.  WE ALSO HAD  ii)  A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS 2) A STRONG INCREASE  IN SILVER OZ  STANDING  FOR FEB, iii) STRONG COMEX GAIN AND iv) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION. YOU CAN BET THE FARM THAT OUR BANKERS  ARE DESPERATE TO LIQUIDATE THEIR HUGE SHORT POSITIONS IN SILVER..

WE ARE BEGINNING TO WITNESS A LACK OF EXCHANGE FOR GOLD PHYSICALS UNDERWRITTEN DUE TO PREMIUMS STARTING TO REAPPEAR IN THE FUTURE PRICE OF GOLD VS LONDON SPOT. THE COST TO THE BANKERS IS JUST TOO GREAT TO ENGAGE IN THESE VEHICLES ONCE THIS OCCURS.

We have now switched to SILVER for our spreaders!!

 

FOR DETAILS ON THE SPREADING EXERCISE HERE IS A BRIEF OUTLINE:

 

SPREADING OPERATIONS/NOW SWITCHING TO SILVER  (WE SWITCH OVER TO GOLD ON NOV  1)

SPREADING OPERATION FOR OUR NEWCOMERS:

FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS:

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED IN SILVER  AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF MAR.

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEW, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE SPREADERS AND THE CRIMINAL ELEMENT BEHIND IT:

 HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

 

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR GOLD..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR GOLD.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

.

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO SILVER AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB. HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAR FOR SILVER:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF FEB. BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (MAR), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

 
 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

FEB

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY /FOR MONTH OF FEB:

33,381 CONTRACTS (FOR 12 TRADING DAY(S) TOTAL 33,381 CONTRACTS) OR 166.605 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 2781 CONTRACTS OR 13.91 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF FEB: 166.605 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON.

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF FEB: 166.605. MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON.

JAN EFP ACCUMULATION FINAL:  113.735 MILLION OZ

FEB EFP ACCUMULATION FOR FAR:   166.605 MILLION OZ (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

RESULT: WE HAD A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1198, DESPITE OUR  $0.03 FALL IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ///TUESDAY.…THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 1450 CONTRACTS WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS.

TODAY WE GAINED AN STRONG SIZED 3450 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES (DESPITE OUR $0.03 FALL IN PRICE)//

THE TALLY//EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

i.e 1450 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH A STRONG SIZED INCREASE OF 1198 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND HAPPENED WITH OUR $0.03 FALL IN PRICE OF SILVER/AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $27.28 // FRIDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY. 

FOR THE NEW FEB.  DELIVERY MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 30 NOTICE(S) FOR  150,000 OZ OF SILVER.

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018. AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.70//TODAY’S RECORD OF 244,705 WAS SET WITH A PRICE OF: 18.91 (FEB 25/2020)

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 

GOLD

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 464 CONTRACTS TO 503,016 AND FURTHER FROM  OUR NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI OCCURRED WITH OUR STRONG LOSS IN PRICE  OF $23.40/// COMEX GOLD TRADING// TUESDAY.WE PROBABLY HAD HUGE BANKER/ALGO SHORT COVERING  ACCOMPANYING OUR FAIR EXCHANGE FOR  PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG GAIN IN GOLD STANDING  AT THE COMEX TO 109.636 TONNES FOR FEBRUARY..AS OUR BANKERS ORCHESTRATE ANOTHER QUEUE JUMP SEARCHING FOR METAL OVER HERE I AM PRETTY SURE THAT OUR BANKERS ARE RUNNING OUT OF DODGE..THEY MUST COVER THEIR SHORTFALL QUICKLY... YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR STRONG FALL IN PRICE OF $23.40!!!.

WE HAD A VOLUME OF 5    4 -GC CONTRACTS//OPEN INTEREST  10//

WE HAD A GOOD GAIN  OF 4498 CONTRACTS  (13.99 TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES..

E.F.P. ISSUANC3

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A SMALL SIZED 14962 CONTRACTS:

CONTRACT . FEB:0,  APRIL:  4962 AND JUNE:  0  ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO//TOTAL: 4962.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 504,016. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EXCHANGE DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 4498 CONTRACTS: 464 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 4962 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 4498 CONTRACTS OR 13.99 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:

WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (4962) ACCOMPANYING THE SMALL SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI  (464 OI): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES:  4498 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1 ) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AS OUR BANKERS ARE RUNNING FROM DODGE AND CONSIDERABLE ALGO SHORT COVERING ,2.)HUMONGOUS INCREASE STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR THE FRONT FEB. MONTH RISING TO 109.637 TONNES3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION /// ;4) SMALL COMEX OI GAIN  AND 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL  ...ALL OF THIS WAS HAPPENED WITH OUR STRONG LOSS IN GOLD PRICE TRADING//TUESDAY//$23.40!!.

WE ARE BEGINNING TO WITNESS A LACK OF EXCHANGE FOR GOLD PHYSICALS UNDERWRITTEN DUE TO PREMIUMS STARTING TO REAPPEAR IN THE FUTURE PRICE OF GOLD VS LONDON SPOT. THE COST TO THE BANKERS IS JUST TOO GREAT TO ENGAGE IN THESE VEHICLES ONCE THIS OCCURS.

 
 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2020 INCLUDING TODAY

FEB

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF FEB : 37,312, CONTRACTS OR 3,731,200 oz OR 116.05 TONNES (12 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 3109 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 12 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 116.05 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2019, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 116.05/3550 x 100% TONNES =3.26% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO DATE:
 
 
JANUARY: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)
 
FEB  :  116.05 TONNES SO FAR ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..THUS EFP’S IN SILVER INCREASING AND GOLD EFP’S DECREASING.

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 1198 CONTRACTS FROM 182,346 UP TO 183,544 AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 3/4 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

THE STRONG SIZED GAIN IN OI SILVER COMEX WAS PRIMARILY DUE TO 1) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING//ALGO SHORT COVERING//REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING , 2) A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (SEE BELOW), 3) A HUGE INCREASE IN  STANDING FOR SILVER  AT THE COMEX FOR FEB., AND 4) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION 

EFP ISSUANCE 1450 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 MARCH:  1450 ; MAY: 0 AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1450 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI GAIN OF 1198 CONTRACTS TO THE 1450 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE 450OBTAIN A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 2648 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 13.24 MILLION  OZ, OCCURRED WITH OUR $0.03 LOSS IN PRICE///

 

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL..THE EVIDENCE IS CLEAR: HUGE AMOUNTS OF PHYSICAL STANDING FOR BOTH  SILVER AND GOLD .

 

(report Harvey)

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

)WEDNESDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED   //Hang Sang CLOSED    /The Nikkei closed DOWN 175.02 POINTS OR 0.58%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.42%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed /Oil UP TO 61.22 dollars per barrel for WTI and 64.36 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.4432 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS //TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED//CORONAVIRUS/PANDEMIC/TRUMP TESTS POSITIVE FOR COVID 19  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 
 
 

COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL  BY A SMALL SIZED 464 CONTRACTS TO 503,016 MOVING FURTHER FROM THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020).  AND THIS SMALL  COMEX DECREASE OCCURRED DESPITE OUR STRONG  LOSS OF $23.40 IN GOLD PRICING /TUESDAY’S COMEX TRADING/)… WE ALSO HAD A FAIR EFP ISSUANCE (4962 CONTRACTS).   WE  ALSO PROBABLY HAD AGAIN  1)  HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING//ALGO SHORT COVERING,  2)  ZERO  LONG LIQUIDATION  AND 3)  LARGE INCREASE STANDING AT THE GOLD  COMEX//FEB. DELIVERY MONTH(109.636 TONNES) (SEE BELOW) …  AS WE ENGINEERED A GOOD SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 5738 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE LATELY WITNESSED THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL….. AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS.

(SEE BELOW)

WE  HAD 5    4 -GC VOLUME//open interest RISES TO   10

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JAN..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 4962 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  ; FEB// ’21  0 AND APRIL:  4962, JUNE:  0 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 4962  CONTRACTS.

YOU WILL FIND THAT WHEN WE HAVE A GOOD PREMIUM IN THE FUTURES/SPOT, THEN THE NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS DECLINE IN NUMBERS.  THE COST IS JUST TOO MUCH FOR THEM TO ISSUE. TODAY THAT PREMIUM WAS SMALL AND THUS A LITTLE MORE THAN USUAL OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WERE ISSUED.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A GOOD 4498 TOTAL CONTRACTSIN THAT 4962 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE LOST A SMALL SIZED  COMEX OI  OF 464 CONTRACTS.  WE HAVE A HUGE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR FEB (109.636 TONNES) FOLLOWING OUR STRONG LEVEL OF JAN 2021 GOLD CONTRACTS STANDING FOR DELIVERY. ((6.500 TONNES).  IF YOU INCLUDE  NOVEMBER’S HUGE 34.7 TONNES, AND DEC. 93.589 OUR COMEX IS OFFICIALLY UNDER ASSAULT.

THE BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT FELL $23.40)., AND WERE   UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING ANY LONGS  AS THE TOTAL GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES REGISTERED 17.847 TONNES, ACCOMPANYING OUR HUGE GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR FEB (109.636 TONNES)..I  STRONGLY BELIEVE THAT OUR BANKER FRIENDS ARE GETTING QUITE NERVOUS.  THE SMALL GAIN IN COMEX OI IS DUE TO BANKER SHORT COVERING IN A BIG WAY.  THEY ARE LOOKING OVER THEIR SHOULDERS AND WITNESSING MASSIVE SILVER SHORTAGES THAT CANNOT BE COVERED. THEY ARE TRYING TO FLEE IN HASTE “FROM DODGE”. 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES :: 4498 CONTRACTS OR  449800 OZ OR  13.99  TONNES

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT COMMODITY FUTURES OPEN INTEREST SHOULD APPROXIMATE 3% OF TOTAL PRODUCTION.  IN GOLD THE WORLD PRODUCES AROUND 3500 TONNES PER YEAR BUT ONLY 2200 TONNES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE WEST (THUS EXCLUDING RUSSIA, CHINA ETC..WHO KEEP 100% OF THEIR PRODUCTION)

 

THUS IN GOLD WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:  503,016 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS X 100 OZ PER CONTRACT = 50.30 MILLION OZ/32,150 OZ PER TONNE =  1564 TONNES

THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST REPRESENTS 1564/2200 OR 71.11% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF GOLD.

 
 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 249,631 contracts// volume fair/raid/

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  369,043 contracts//  volume: good/raid //most of our traders have left for London

 

FEB 17 /2021

 
INITIAL STANDINGS FOR FEB COMEX GOLD
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
 
17,013.256
 
oz
SCOTIA
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz

47,551.329 oz

BRINKS

1479 KILOBARS

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz
 
nil
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
No of oz served (contracts) today
731  notice(s)
73100 OZ
(2/.2731 TONNES
 
 
 
No of oz to be served (notices)
2417 contracts
241,700 oz)
 
7.517 TONNES
 
 
 
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
32,831 notices
 
3,283,100 OZ
102.118 TONNES
 
 
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz
 

We had 1 deposit into the dealer

i) Into Brinks dealer:  47,551.329 oz (1479 kilobars)
 
 
 
 
total deposit:  47,551.329  oz
 
 
 

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had nil deposits to the customer account

we had  1 withdrawals from  the customer account

i) Out of Scotia:  17,013.256 oz
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

We had 1  kilobar transactions

ADJUSTMENTS  1:    dealer to customer 

BRINKS 29,964.323 oz  

 

The front month of FEB registered a total of 3148 CONTRACTS FOR A GAIN OF 37 CONTRACTS.  WE

HAD 707 CONTRACTS FILED ON FRIDAY SO WE GAINED A MONSTROUS 744 CONTRACTS OR 74,400 OZ REFUSED TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS AND AS SUCH NEGATED A FIAT BONUS.  IT IS NOW OUR BANKERS TURN TO FIND BADLY NEEDED PHYSICAL. QUEUE JUMPING NOW BECOMES THE NORM AT THE GOLD COMEX AS BANKERS ARE IN URGENT NEED OF PHYSICAL METAL.

 

MARCH GAINED 2 contracts to stand at 2374

APRIL LOST 1756 contracts to stand at 389,736

We had 731 notice(s) filed today for 73100 oz

FOR THE FEB 2021 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and  0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 731  contract(s) of which 61  notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 392 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 2 notices received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)
 

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the FEB /2021. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (32,831) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  (FEB 3148 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today (731 x 100 oz per contract) equals 3,450,400 OZ OR 107.321 TONNESthe number of ounces standing in this  active month of FEB

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the FEB/55911 contract month:

No of notices filed so far (32,831 x 100 oz  PLUS 3148 OI) for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (731} x 100 oz which equals 3,524,800 oz standing OR 109.636 TONNES in this active delivery month of FEBRUARY. This is a HUGE amount  standing for GOLD IN  FEB

WE GAINED A POWERFUL 744 CONTRACTS OR 74,400 OZ REFUSED TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS AS NOW OUR BANKER FRIENDS WILL TRY THEIR LUCK TO FIND METAL ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND.  

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:  

461,317.475 oz NOW PLEDGED  SEPT 15.2020/HSBC  14.34 TONNES

137,613.934 PLEDGED  APRIL 3/2020: SCOTIA:3.7708 TONNES

290,795.495 oz  JPM  9.04 TONNES

1,048,677.37 oz pledged June 12/2020 Brinks/32.618 TONNES

94,500.934 oz Pledged August 21/regular account 2.93 tonnes JPMORGAN

6,308.08 oz International Delaware:  .196 tonnes

192.06 oz Malca

168,811.741 Manfra

total pledged gold:  2,208,217.935 oz                                     68.68 tonnes

 

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES…. WE HAVE 544.82 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS i.e. 109.836 tonnes

CALCULATION OF REGISTERED THAT CAN BE SETTLED UPON:

total registered or dealer  19,724.272.744 oz or 613.50 tonne
 
 
total weight of pledged:  2,208,217.935 oz or 68.68 tonnes
 
 
thus:
 
registered gold that can be used to settle upon: 17,516,055.0  (544,82 tonnes)
 
 
 
true registered gold  (total registered – pledged tonnes  17,516,055.0 (544.82 tonnes)
 
 
 
total eligible gold: 19,765,108.139 , oz (614.77 tonnes)
 
 

total registered, pledged  and eligible (customer) gold  39,489,380.883 oz 1,228.28 tonnes (INCLUDES 4 GC GOLD)

total 4 GC gold:   126.34 tonnes

total gold net of 4 GC:  1101.94 tonnes

end

I have compiled  data with respect to registered (or dealer) gold taken on first day notice for each of the past 24 months

The data begins on first day notice for the May month taken on the last day of July 2018. and it continues to present day.

I then took, how many deliveries were recorded by the CME for each and every month.  I also included for reference the price of gold on first day notice.

The first graph is a logarithmic  graph and the second graph, linear.

You can see the huge explosion of registered gold at the comex along with deliveries.

 
 
THE DATA AND GRAPHS:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
END

 

 
 
FEB 17/2021

And now for the wild silver comex results

 
 

And now for the wild silver comex results

INITIAL STANDING FOR SILVER/FEB

FEB. SILVER COMEX CONTRACT MONTH//INITIAL STANDING

Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
600,217.300 OZ
 
 
 
CNT
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
 
nil
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
No of oz served today (contracts)
30
 
CONTRACT(S)
(150,000 OZ)
 
No of oz to be served (notices)
366 contracts
 1,830,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  1865 contracts

 

9,325,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
 
We had 0 deposits into the dealer:
 
 
 
 

total dealer deposits: nil        oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had 0 deposits into the customer account (ELIGIBLE ACCOUNT)

 
 
 
 

JPMorgan now has 196.311 million oz of  total silver inventory or 49.49% of all official comex silver. (196.311 million/396.604 million

total customer deposits today: NIL    oz

we had 1 withdrawals:

 
 
i) out of CNT  600,217.300 oz
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

total withdrawals 600,217.300   oz

We had 3 adjustments: all dealer to customer

i) CNT  611,571.500 oz

ii) Loomis: 318,153.100 oz

Scotia: 29,850.400 oz

Total dealer(registered) silver: 150.184million oz

total registered and eligible silver:  396,604 million oz

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

FEBRUARY saw a LOSS of 10 contracts to stand at 396. We had 64 notices filed on TUESDAY. So we GAINED 54 contracts or an additional 270,000 oz will NOT stand for delivery on this side of the pond as they  morphed into London based forwards and accepted a fiat bonus for their effort. 

MARCH LOST 6540 contracts DOWN to 80,782.April gained another 52 contracts to stand at 332

We have 7 trading days before first day notice Feb 26.2021. We await anxiously to see how many raptors will take delivery and move silver out of the comex. We have not witnessed a huge migration from the March contract over to May as of yet.

The total number of notices filed today for FEB 2021. contract month is represented by 30 contract(s) FOR 150,000 oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in FEB we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at  1865 x 5,000 oz = 9,325,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of FEB (396) and the number of notices served upon today 30 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the FEB standings for silver for the FEB/2021 contract month: 1865 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of FEB(396)- number of notices served upon today (30) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the Jan contract month .equals 11,155,000 oz. ..VERY STRONG FOR A NON ACTIVE  FEB MONTH.

We gained 54 contracts or an additional 270,000 oz will stand for delivery over here as they refused to  morph into London based forwards..

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME 82,221 CONTRACTS // volume very  good/raid

FOR YESTERDAY  157,843  ,CONFIRMED VOLUME//huge/raid 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV  FALLS TO -0.21% ((FEB 17/2021)

2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV FALLS TO- 0.12% to NAV:   (FEB 17/2021 )

Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/0.21%(FEB 17/2021)

(courtesy Sprott/GATA

3. SPROTT CEF .A   FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 19.38 TRADING 18.97//NEGATIVE 2,14

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/(this vehicle is a fraud as there is no gold behind them!)

FEB 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $27.35 TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.54 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1136.68 TONNES

FEB 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $23.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORYRESTS AT 1142.20 TONNES

FEB 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.38 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1142.20 TONNES

FEB 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $15.35 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/I: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1146.60 TONNES

FEB 10/WITH GOLD UP $5.30 TODAY: ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.09 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1148.34 TONNES

FEB 9/WITH GOLD UP $4.00 TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.08 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1152.43 TONNES.

FEB 8/WITH GOLD UP $20.80 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.33 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1156.51 TONNES

FEB 5/WITH GOLD UP $20.10 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1159.84 TONNES

FEB 4/WITH GOLD DOWN $42.05 TODAY: STRANGE: HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.34 TONNES ADDED INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1159.84 TONNES

FEB 3/WITH GOLD DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1157.50 TONNES

FEB 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $27.60 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD// A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.63 TONNES FROM THE GLD//.INVENTORY RESTS AT 1157.50 TONNES

FEB 1/WITH GOLD UP $12.45 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.5 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1160.13 TONNES

JAN 29/WITH GOLD UP $9.65 TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A WITHDRAWAL  OF 4.37 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1164.80 TONNES

JAN 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.90 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.71 TONNES LEAVES THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1169.17 TONNES

JANUARY 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.85 TODAY; A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF .87 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS 1172.38 TONNES

JAN 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.15 TODAY:NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1173.25 TONNES

JAN 25.WITH GOLD DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1173.25 TONNES

JAN 22/WITH GOLD DOWN (9.50 TODAY:A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A WITHDRAWAL OF .88 TONNES FROM THE GLD//NVENTORY RESTS AT 1173.25 TONNES

JAN 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.40 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1174.13 TONNES

JAN 20/WITH GOLD UP $25.20 TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.5 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1174.13 TONNES

JAN 19/WITH GOLD UP $10.90 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 16.63 TONNES INTO GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1177.63 TONNES

JAN 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $22.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//: A WITHDRAWAL OF 10.21 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1161.00 TONNES

JAN 14.WITH GOLD DOWN $2.75 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 10.50 TONNES FROM THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1171.21 TONNES

JAN 13/WITH GOLD UP $11.65 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1181.71 TONNES

JAN 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.70  TODAY;A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD// A WITHDRAWAL OF .400 TONNES FROM THE GLD..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1181.71 TONNES

JAN 11/WITH GOLD UP $14.30 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1182.11 TONNES

JAN 8//WITH GOLD DOWN $75.70 : A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.57 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1182.11 TONNES

JAN 7/WITH GOLD UP $5.70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1186.78 TONNES

JAN 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $44.25 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1186.78 TONNES

JAN 5/WITH GOLD UP $10.05 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 17.21 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1187.95 TONNES

JAN 4/WITH GOLD UP $49.70 TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD; A DEPOSIT OF 0.88 TONNES INTO THE GLD/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1170.74 TONNES

DEC 31/WITH GOLD UP $1.45 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1169.86 TONNES

DEC//30//WITH GOLD UP $13.30 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1169.86 TONNES

DEC.29//WITH GOLD UP $1.65 TODAY: A DEPOSIT OF  2.53 TONNES  CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1169.86 TONNES.

DEC 28WITH GOLD DOWN $3.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1167.53 TONNES

DEC 24/WITH GOLD UP $6.15 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1167.53 TONNES

DEC.23/WITH GOLD UP $7.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.33 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1167.53 TONNES

DEC 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPSOIT OF 2.04 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1169.86 TONNES

DEC 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.60 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1167.82 TONNES

DEC 18/WITH GOLD DOWN 90 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1167.82 TONNES

DEC 17 WITH GOLD UP $39.35 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.33 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1167.82 TONNES

DEC 16/WITH GOLD UP $2.55 TODAY A HUGE  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES FORM THE GLD..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1170.15 TONNES

DEC 15/ WITH GOLD UP $23.75 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.67 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1171.32 TONNES//

DEC 14//WITH GOLD DOWN $10.45 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.79 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1175.99 TONNES

DEC 11/WITH GOLD UP $5.70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1179.78 TONNES

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Inventory rests tonight at:

 

FEB 17 / GLD INVENTORY 1136.68 tonnes

LAST;  1001 TRADING DAYS:   +202.96 TONNES HAVE BEEN ADDED THE GLD

LAST 901 TRADING DAYS// +  371.21TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY

end

Now the SLV Inventory/(this vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them!)

FEB 17/WITH SILVER UP  1 CENT TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A DEPOSIT OF 83,000 OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 628.623 MILLION OZ//

FEB 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.044 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 628.530 MILLION OZ//

FEB 12/WITH SILVER UP 31 CENTS//A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.312 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 630.574 MILLION OZ.

FEB 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.858 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 634.986 MILLION OZ//

FEB 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 44 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 636.844 MILLION OZ//

FEB 9/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.19 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 17.882 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 636.844 MILLION OZ//

FEB 8/WITH SILVER UP $0.53 TODAY: A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 4.451 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 654.726 MILLION OZ//

FEB 5/WITH SILVER UP 70 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 659.278 MILLION OZ

FEB 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 0.54 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 10.079 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 659.278 MILLION OZ//

FEB 3/WITH SILVER UP 38 CENTS TODAY: A MIND NUMBING: 56.784 MILION OZ “DEPOSIT” INTO THE SLV at 3 pm AND A WITHDRAWAL OF 7.99 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV AT 5 PM//WITH THESE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 669.357 MILLION OZ//

FEB2//WITH SILVER DOWN  $2.81 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: AN UNBELEIVABLE DEPOSIT OF 18.627 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 620.563 MILLION OZ//

FEB 1/WITH SILVER UP $2.56 TODAY: A FAIRY TALE DEPOSIT OF 34.419 MILLION OZ INTO  SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 601.936 MILLION OZ//

JAN 29/WITH SILVER UP 58 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.366 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 567.517 MILLION OZ//

JAN 28/WITH SILVER UP 44 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.393 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 571.883 MILLION OZ/

JAN 27/ WITH SILVER DOWN 10CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.: A XXXWITHDRAWAL OF 3.022 MILLION OZ OF IMAGINARY SILVER// INVENTORY RESTS AT 573.277 MILLION OZ/

JAN 26/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 576.299 MILLION OZ///

JAN 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 2.044 MILLION XXXXOZ INTO THE SLV// INVENTORY RESTS AT 576.299 MILLION OZ./.

 
 
XXXXXXXXXXXXXX
 
 
 
 
 
FEB 17/2021

SLV INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT

 


 


628.623 MILLION OZ

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

Another silver ETF cites campaign against shorts, but doesn’t express concern about obtaining metal

 
 Section: 

 

2:44p ET Tuesday, February 16, 2021

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Bullion Star’s researchers note via Twitter today that another silver exchange-traded fund, the Aberdeen Standard Silver ETF Trust (SIVR), has updated its prospectus to take note of the recent internet campaign to attack shorts in silver.

But unlike the prospectus change made by the largest silver ETF, the iShares Silver Trust (SLV) —

http://gata.org/node/20913

— the change made by SIVR simply notes the campaign and asserts that it may cause volatility in the silver price. The SIVR prospectus change does not assert, as the SLV prospectus change does, that the campaign may cause difficulty for the fund in obtaining metal.

The new text in the SIVR prospectus says: “… an online campaign intended to harm hedge funds and large banks is encouraging retail investors to purchase silver and shares of silver exchange-traded products to intentionally increase prices. This activity may result in temporarily high prices of silver.”

The new SIVR prospectus is posted at the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s internet site here:

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1450922/000138713121001680/sivr-…

But before you start figuring that SIVR is a much more secure investment, note that, like SLV, SIVR uses JPMorgan Chase Bank as custodian of its metal. Are the silver stashes of the two silver ETFs strictly segregated in the bank’s custody? Does the bank really have all the metal the ETFs claim to own? Is any of the metal leased, swapped, otherwise encumbered, or counted multiple times?

Only God knows, at least until a grand jury looks into the matter.

Trust JPMorganChase if you want, but remember that in 2019 the U.S. Justice Department called the bank’s commodities trading desk a criminal enterprise, specifically in regard to silver. So investors might want to ask the managers of SLV and SIVR why they continue to have anything to do with such a bank.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

Amazing the fund SIVR whose custodian is JPMorgan is more worried about shorts than the gains that will flow to its own investors

(Bullionstar)

Ronan Manly: Silver ETF SIVR worries more about shorts than its own investors

 
 Section: 

 

11:50p ET Tuesday, January 16, 2021

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Bullion Star researcher Ronan Manly writes tonight that the Aberdeen Standard Physical Silver Shares exchange-traded fund (SIVR) seems fearful that silver prices might increase, damaging banks that are “substantially short” even though a price increase would profit the fund’s own investors.

Manly’s analysis is headlined “Twilight Zone as ETF Provider Warns Buying Silver will Harm Hedge Funds and Large Banks” and it’s posted at Bullion Star here:

https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/ronan-manly/twilight-zone-as-etf-provi…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

Have fun with this!!

(GATA)

‘Downfall’ of the anti-silver cabal

 
 Section: 

 

4:25p ET Tuesday, January 16, 2021

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

If you can stand another parody of the Hitler nervous breakdown scene from the movie “Downfall,” Reddit’s silver advocates have produced one that’s fairly funny and gives credit to mining entrepreneur Eric Sprott as the enemy of all evildoers in the monetary metals markets.

The video is 4 minutes long, headlined “Downfall of the Silver Cabal,” and it’s posted at Reddit here:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Wallstreetsilver/comments/lkijqj/downfall_of_th…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

*This Reddit video captures the essence of what The GATA camp has been articulating to the precious metals world forever. It is amazing in that it captures the essence of what is going on in silver in the most hilarious manner, in a truthful way that the gold/silver mainstream world won’t touch with a ten foot pole…

Downfall of the silver cabal

https://www.reddit.com/r/Wallstreetsilver/comments/lkij qj/downfall_of_the_silver_cabal/? utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossm f

***

END

My goodness another interview on market manipulation by Daniela Cambone

(zerohedge)

Stansberry Research’s Daniela Cambone does another interview about market manipulation

 
 Section: 

 

4:45p ET Tuesday, January 16, 2021

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

“Rich Dad, Poor Dad” author and market provocateur Robert Kiyosaki today joins the parade of people interviewed by Stansberry Research’s Daniela Cambone about manipulation of the monetary metals markets. How times have changed.

The interview is 20 minutes long and can be seen at YouTube here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h3aCPiNPqCE

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

Craig Hemke

Craig has been outlining for years, the manipulation of silver  (and gold)

(courtesy Craig Hemke/Sprott/GATA)

Craig Hemke at Sprott Money: A silver price manipulation primer

 
 Section: 

 

6:35p ET Tuesday, February 16, 2021

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Craig Hemke of the TF Metals Report, writing tonight at Sprott Money, provides a compendium on manipulation of silver prices by bullion banks, about which he has been writing for years.

Hemke concludes: “The fight against the criminal forces that control the precious metal pricing scheme continues, and it is still far from over. However, if we can continue to apply pressure to the banks through physical metal acquisition, a forced deleverage is coming. When that finally happens, you can be certain that the price discovered through a system that is more based in physical reality will not be $27 per ounce.”

Hemke’s analysis is headlined “A Silver Price Manipulation Primer” and it’s posted at Sprott Money here:

https://www.sprottmoney.com/blog/A-Silver-Price-Manipulation-Primer-Crai…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

iii) Other physical stories:

Bitcoin soars to $51,700 per coin.

Bitcoin Soars To $51,700 As Traders Predict “Parabolic Advance”

 
WEDNESDAY, FEB 17, 2021 – 8:04

And so the treacherous path to $100,000 begin.

Overnight, bitcoin surged almost 6% to about $51,431, ending a bout of weakness around $50K, and following delayed reaction to the news that MicroStrategy would sell $600 million of convertible bonds and use the proceeds to buy more of the tokens, a deal which has since been upsized to $900 million.

Also overnight, shares of Asian crypto-linked companies are advancing too. Japan’s Monex Group Inc. jumped 11% to hit a 13-year high, while BC Technology Group Ltd. in Hong Kong closed at a record. Bitcoin fintech proxy Silvergate Capital continued its recent surge, hitting new all time highs.

Tuesday had seen Bitcoin rise $50,000 for the first time ever, although that level failed to hold for more than a matter of minutes. MicroStrategy’s latest step is “a warning sign if there ever was one that things are getting out of hand in the crypto world,” Jeffrey Halley, a senior market analyst at Oanda Asia Pacific Pte, wrote in emailed comments.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists said Bitcoin’s volatility needs to ease to prevent its rally from fizzling. Other commentators see a mania likely to end in a bust akin to the implosion in 2017.  The digital coin’s 60-day realized volatility is around the highest since May last year, though still below the levels seen around the peak of its last boom some three years ago.

Others naturally disagreed: the largest cryptocurrency is in a “parabolic advance” — the fourth in its twelve-year history, bullish analysts said. “Big picture $BTC Bitcoin is undergoing its third parabolic advance in the past decade,” chartiest Peter Brandt tweeted alongside an annotated price chart. Brandt added that should the advance be violated, a correction of 80% is “most common” as a bearish consequence. Such behavior was observed in 2018 after Bitcoin peaked at near $20,000 — the market bottomed out at $3,100 one year later.

As Cointelegraph reported, various indicators nonetheless suggest that Bitcoin is far from violating any uptrend, being at the start, rather than the end of its bull run. “$50,000 #Bitcoin is the new normal,” Blockstream CSO Samson Mow declared on Wednesday.

Discussing the new price highs, others noted that macro factors could converge to create a chain reaction of adoption, which would push Bitcoin further still into price discovery.

“If you think $50,000 a bitcoin is expensive, wait until you hear that the government is about to print $1,900,000,000,000 out of thin air,” popular Twitter account Documenting Bitcoin added.

Data meanwhile showed that Bitcoin had taken the momentum out of altcoin growth with its moves over the last few days, with all of the top ten cryptocurrencies except Polkadot (DOT) seeing sideways price action.

“There are a number of reasons why Bitcoin is soaring, but what stands out most is the trend that MicroStrategy started and Tesla popularised: moving institutional balance sheets into Bitcoin to hedge against inflation,” said Nicholas Pelecanos, head of trading at NEM.

Meanwhile, as Bloomberg notes, activity in Bitcoin futures suggests traders don’t see a sudden end to the crypto rally, with spreads continuing to widen between the active contract and March futures.

END
A must read…another Silver ETF warns that buying silver will harm hedge funds and large banks. They are basically telling where their hearts are in this game….certainly not with their shareholders.
(Zerohedge)
 

Twilight Zone As ETF Provider Warns Buying Silver Will Harm Hedge Funds And Large Banks

WEDNESDAY, FEB 17, 2021 – 11:16

Submitted by Ronan Manly, BullionStar.com

Just over a week ago, we showed you how, following the #SilverSqueeze triggered surge in demand for physical silver, the 14 ETFs which claim to hold silver in LBMA vaults in London between them accounted for over 28,000 tonnes or 85% of all the silver said to be in those London vaults. And that the biggest of these ETFs, the infamous Blackrock managed iShares Silver Trust (SLV), which has JP Morgan London as custodian, accounted for over 70% of this total.

And just a few days ago we showed you how, following the #SilverSqueeze induced surge in SLV trading from 29 January to 02 February on NYSE Arca, the very same SLV had quietly and without fanfare amended its Prospectus on 03 February conceding that there may not be enough silver bars available in London or elsewhere to add to the Trust, when it stated in its filing to the SEC that:

“The demand for silver may temporarily exceed available supply that is acceptable for delivery to the Trust, which may adversely affect an investment in the Shares.

To the extent that demand for silver exceeds the available supply at that time, Authorized Participants may not be able to readily acquire sufficient amounts of silver necessary for the creation of a Basket.

It is possible that Authorized Participants may be unable to acquire sufficient silver that is acceptable for delivery to the Trust for the issuance of new Baskets due to a limited then-available supply coupled with a surge in demand for the Shares.

…In such circumstances, the Trust may suspend or restrict the issuance of Baskets.

But as it turns out, as was to be expected, SLV was not the silver ETF to move to panic stations the week before last, for at the exact same time on 02 February, the Aberdeen Standard Physical Silver Shares ETF (SIVR), also using JP Morgan London as metal custodian and also traded on NYSE Arca, quietly amended it’s Prospectus to both sinister and comical effect, and in stealthy fashion uploaded a new version of it’s Prospectus to the SEC website, inserting the following wording on page 6:

“As of the date of this prospectus, an online campaign intended to harm hedge funds and large banks is encouraging retail investors to purchase silver and shares of Silver ETPsto intentionally increase prices. This activity may result in temporarily high prices of silver.”

Let the above sink in. You may need to read it a couple of times. For apart from showing panic about the effectiveness of the Reddit #SilverSqueeze forums such as r/WallStreetSilver, we would wager that never in the history of Wall Street has the author of a Prospectus shown it’s true colors more than the above.

For if you previously did not know whose side Aberdeen Standard Investments was on in the battle for silver, well, simply put, now you do. And if there was ever an award for Snitch of the Year in torpedoing its own client base, Aberdeen Standard would likely win this one hands down.

But it gets better, for Aberdeen Standard, operator of SIVR (which claims to hold 1140 tonnes silver in London) and whose very rationale is to offer investors exposure to the silver price, seems to have a fundamental problem with the very silver price rising. Why else would Aberdeen Standard be afraid of a market force that “intentionally increases prices”? Unless of course that’s not what the ETF operator  actually wants to happen.

SIVR Prospectus amendment of 02 Feb 2021, page 6 But it gets even better, for on page 7 of the amended SIVR Prospectus, Aberdeen Standard again confirms whose side it is really on and specifically why it is so scared of this online campaign to free the silver market from the clutches of the hedge funds and banks.

For on 02 February, in the amended text under a newly inserted heading of:

A possible ‘short squeeze’ due to a sudden increase in demand of Shares that largely exceeds supply may lead to price volatility in the Shares.”

the Prospectus also added that:

“As of the date of this prospectus, the Fund and other Silver ETPs are experiencing a sudden increase in demand of shares following an online campaign to harm hedge funds and large banks with substantial short exposures to silver.

The campaign encourages retail investors to purchase shares of Silver ETPs as well as physical silver in order to intentionally create a short squeeze. This activity could result in temporarily inflated prices of Shares and the difference between trading price and NAV per share may widen.

So there you have it, one of the biggest silver-backed ETFs in the world apart from SLV, with a claimed 36.7 million ozs (1140 tonnes) of silver stored in London with custodian JP Morgan, is worried not about the interests of its investors, but about the outstanding short interest silver positions of the hedge funds and large banks. And out of concern for these entities that are short, Aberdeen Standard in fearful of market forces which will ‘intentionally increase silver prices’.

Those with a sharp eye may also ponder why Aberdeen Standard is worried about a divergence between the trading price of SIVR and its NAV. And why would that be? Maybe it’s because the date of 03 February is the last time SIVR added any new silver holdings, a date on which it’s claimed silver holdings rose from 35.6 million ozs to 36.6 million ozs. But no increase in silver holdings since then.

And also that none of the claimed SIVR silver is held in the vault of the infamous custodian JP Morgan in London, but all of the claimed silver is said to be held in the vaults of 3 SIVR sub-custodians, namely, Brinks, Malca-Amit and Loomis, the same 3 sub-custodians that SLV tapped in early February to pad out its bar list in the wake of a so called 3,400 tonnes increase in SLV silver allocations.

So after all, maybe the SIVR panic of 02 February is not so different to that of the iShares Silver Trust (SLV) of 03 February, which as a reminder and to come full circle, warned in its prospectus change that “The demand for silver may temporarily exceed available supply that is acceptable for delivery.

end

Modern Monetary Theory Revisited

Steve Brown

“The few who understand the system, will either be so interested in its profits, or so dependent upon its favours, that there will be no opposition from that class; while, on the other hand, the great body of the people, mentally incapable of comprehending the tremendous advantages, will bear its burden without complaint, and perhaps without suspecting that the system itself is inimical to their interests.”   

[— quote attributed to John Sherman, author of the rarely-enforced Sherman Antitrust Act of 1890, in a letter supposedly sent by him to bankers Ikleheimer, Morton, and Vandergould, 1863. Sherman’s letter is in regard to the National Banks Act of 1863, but more likely the quote is a made-up one from ‘London Punch’, a humor magazine. However, even if meant in jest, the author was certainly aware of the quote’s accuracy.]

In 1890, Sherman – or London Punch – could not foresee the US financial collapse of the United States by 2009. And by 2010  — with the 2011 debt crisis looming — the populace clamored for answers and relief from the US financial collapse that put many millions out of their homes, and many more homeless on the streets. As such a new and uncomfortable (to Elites) monetary system discourse entered the public consciousness, based on monetary realism.* So, how would academia and Wall Street counter any threat to Keynesian dogma? By Modern Monetary Theory as generally attributed to Warren Mosler, whose blog introduced the concept of the “trillion dollar” coin.

Eleven years ago, the Fed engaged in open market operations (POMO)Twist, dealer bank repurchase agreements, and outright theft by TARP 1 & 2 to “stabilize” the system, socializing loss while privatizing profit. The ‘resources’ employed include that of US taxpayers, which has kept the illusion of US bank solvency alive ever since. With its monetary sleight of hand, the Fed has so impressed those who are “so interested in its profits, or so dependent upon its favours” that they’ve fully embraced MMT, especially since the advent of the contagion last year.

First, MMT academics believe that the status of the US dollar (USD) as global reserve currency is forever established, and that the USD will never be challenged or marginalized for hegemony. Another MMT given is the hyper-Keynesian view that gold is a useless relic which should populate landfills and not Central Banks. MMT adherents submit that gold plays no part in world trade and that gold is not used as collateral for sovereigns or Central banks. MMT theorists assert that the carry trade is only a commodity trade. To the MMT extremist gold is far less useful than milk or toothpaste, and they falsely say that gold is not a monetary instrument.

Second, the icon of MMT, Warren Mosler, argues that taxation is the basis upon which the US dollar maintains its value. A favored Keynes quote: “If, however, a government refrains from regulation (taxation) … the worthlessness of the money becomes apparent, and the fraud upon the public can no longer be concealed.” Mosler ignores the fact that the dollar is only worth the trust placed in it, regardless of the source of that trust, and that federal income tax accommodates less than half of the federal deficit, and pays no interest toward the public debt.

Third, MMT evangelists postulate that MMT is primarily about reducing unemployment. We’ll argue the war party contrarian view, that it’s preferable to see inflationary dollars blown up on a battlefield instead of in the public’s wallet, being the public wallet which inflates art, bitcoin,  gold, and even the auction price of a mediocre motorcycle. Of course inflationary dollars blown up in the pockets of the poor and unemployed will never do, but now the contagion provides Modern Monetary Theory boosters (like Powell/Yellen) with those helicopter dollars. Prima facie we can take MMT as an accepted central government given, so let’s examine the concepts.

Modern Monetary Theory (MMT)

Using the Steve Forbes flavor of MMT as a baseline:

  1. The federal government can print its own money.

It can and should… but doesn’t. The private Federal Reserve banks print the dollars in your wallet, and the Feds’s dollar-creation monopoly skims 10% overall off the top, with regard to all related public debt created via its private banks. Yes, they are ‘Federal Reserve Notes’ and not ‘United States Notes’. A president was murdered for that very distinction and while that distinction may seem obscure, such distinction is exceedingly important and at the heart of all US monetary duplicity.

  1. The Federal Government (US Treasury) pays back its debt by issuing more debt.

That’s true. MMT Keynesians insist that the Treasury can infinitely create new debt instruments to pay old, because it does so despite the “debt ceiling” which limits new debt issued. The so-called debt ceiling has not been fully abolished quite yet, and that’s why the central government struggles to fund itself when temporary funding expires. Monetary realists say the debt ceiling is necessary to impose fiscal restraint and monetary discipline, while MMT theory says that the ceiling is pointless, a ‘useless relic’ just like gold. Granted, a ceiling is not a ceiling when it’s not a ceiling, and it’s a political football instead.  MMT’s argument? Currency has zero interest and zero intrinsic value, except for that which taxes represent, and requires no ‘ceiling’ to impose restraint on an out-of-control warfare state.

  • 3. The federal government can’t be forced into bankruptcy.

Sure, there is no circumstance where the federal government will declare itself insolvent. The US government can always demand Federal Reserve notes via infinite Treasury-issued debt instruments to cover the government’s liabilities. MMT submits that the hijinks the US Treasury engages in with bonds will cover for the hijinks the Fed engages in, and vice versa …and for eleven years that monetary sleight-of-hand has held true. Even so, Federal Reserve banks are privately owned corporations in possession of risky assets as well as good ones. Just prior to the contagion the Fed attempted to balance its obscenely bloated books by selling some of its better assets, purchased after the US financial collapse of 2008-2009. “Quantitative tightening” (selling debt instruments and assets instead of purchasing them) was the Fed’s attempt to balance their grossly out-of-balance books. It didn’t work. Then in March of 2020 the contagion saved the day, at least from the Fed-Treasury’s point of view.

The contagion allowed the Fed to end “tightening”, to revert to “accommodation” (lowering federal fund rates) and that has resulted in real negative federal fund rates. The Fed must retain real interest rates negative, to avoid disaster in perpetuity. True too, if a Fed bank did collapse under the weight of bad assets, that bank would be bailed-out (or in! – ed.) via the Fed’s own unique accounting rules.  So isn’t MMT just regurgitating the bleeding economic obvious?

  1. We can afford any social program we want.

MMT enthusiast Harvey writes, “I don’t know a single, solitary MMT scholar who has ever argued this.” Perhaps not. But plenty of politicians do, and those politicians embrace MMT. Proof of the pudding is today, with high inflation to come thanks to helicopter dollars and regardless of how the central government games CPI and PCE numbers.**

Modern Money Theory Summarized

To paraphrase and embellish Assistant Professor of Economics at Florida Atlantic University, William Luther, MMT may be summarized thus:

  1. If the economy is underproducing, the government can improve matters by spending.
  2. A sovereign government is a unique entity unlike any other and can always issue money to cover its debt, it can never run out of money.
  3. Government spending gets idle resources into production, so creating money to stimulate that production will not generate undesirable inflation.
  4. Given all of the above the US government should run ever larger deficits.
  5. Zero or negative interest rates can be maintained in perpetuity without damage to the currency, or induced inflation. (added point 5 – ed)
  6. You can’t make this stuff up. (added point 6 too! – ed)

Does the above have a familiar ring? However, MMT is far more than souped-up Keynesian dogma. MMT includes elements of the Free Silver Movement which was a truly noble movement eventually kiboshed by governmental funding for its perpetual wars. MMT also includes outright theft (grifters) and even a noble element or two harking back to the long lost Independent Treasury.

So, never mind the seven figure academics who sanctimoniously argue the economic sanctity of their MMT points in arcane and obfuscated language; this system intends to keep Fed elites fat and happy so long as its grifters are in charge… and no one can yet say how long that will be.

*as represented by the late great Andrew Gause, Harvey Organ, Mike Maloney, Jim Rickard, Peter Schiff, Andrew Maguire, Chris Powell and GATA, and many many more.

**US Bureau of Labor Satistics typically excludes components like food and fuel to maintain a low number on behalf of the federal government; or will include those components should they show a deflationary trend.

Twitter: @newsypaperz

Your early FRIDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED /

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.4432   /shanghai bourse CLOSED

HANG SANG CLOSED

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 175.02 POINTS OR 0.58%

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL RED/

USA dollar index DOWN TO 90.82/Euro FALLS TO 1.2066

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: RISES TO. +.10/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 107.85/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 61.22 and Brent: 64.46

3f Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE CLOSED/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO -.34%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 0.58% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 0.230%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 0.92: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO : 0.80

3k Gold at $1788.35 silver at: 27.10   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 18/100 in roubles/dollar) 73.79

3m oil into the 61 dollar handle for WTI and 64 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 106.02 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9207 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0791 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to 0.34%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 1.301% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.071%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 6.99..

Futures Rebound From Overnight Lows As Bond Rout Slows

 
WEDNESDAY, FEB 17, 2021 – 7:48

US equity futures rebounded from an overnight selloff which dragged Asian and European stocks lower, and which was sparked by surging bond yields. Emini futures unchanged around 3,927 as 10Y yields slipped from a 1-year high of 1.34% to 1.29% as buyers emerged in the Asian and European session ahead of a number of US risk events, including the January FOMC Minutes.

The MSCI world equity benchmark fell 0.1% as a weaker start of trading in Europe offset a brief surge in Asia overnight. The index ended flat on Tuesday to snap 11 straight positive sessions, the longest streak in 17 years.

“The market is fairly frothy here from a sentiment perspective,” Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab & Co., said on Bloomberg TV. “You have to put a move higher in yields that goes out of the comfort zone as a potential risk associated with that.”

Europe’s Stoxx 600 Index slipped amid a mixed bag of corporate results. Kering dragged retail shares lower after its Gucci brand missed estimates, and British American Tobacco Plc slid following its full-year results. Rio Tinto Group climbed after reporting a 20% jump in annual profit on a surge in iron ore prices. Here are some of the biggest European movers today:

  • Rio Tinto shares gain as much as 4.4%, touching a record high, after the miner reported its largest annual profit in nine years and said it will pay a record dividend, helping to boost mining stocks.
  • Sinch shares surge as much as 24% to a record after the cloud communications software firm bought Inteliquent in a deal that Handelsbanken said would add fuel to the “rocketing” stock.
  • CNP Assurances shares gain as much as 5.4% to the highest in nearly a year, with Bryan Garnier saying the “very good news” in the insurer’s in-line earnings was the payment of a dividend.
  • Kering shares plunge as much as 9.2%, the most since March 18, with analysts saying the luxury-goods group’s key Gucci brand missed relatively low expectations in the fourth quarter.
  • British American Tobacco shares slide as much as 7.5%, the most since March 16, with analysts saying the group’s guidance was disappointing given the recovery in industry volumes.

Asian stocks erased a loss to trade little changed, as stocks surged in Taiwan and fell in South Korea. TSMC was the biggest boost to the MSCI Asia Pacific Index after a report said the Taiwanese chipmaker plans to boost advanced process production amid rising demand. The Taiex climbed 3.5%. Vietnam’s key equity gauge also gained more than 3%. Internet giants Tencent and Meituan helped power advances in Hong Kong shares. South Korean stocks dropped, dragged lower by Samsung Electronics after it halted operations at a Texas plant due to the recent blackouts. Philippine stocks fell amid concerns over rising inflation on higher oil prices. Markets in China remained closed for Lunar New Year holidays

With China still closed much of the focus was on Japan, where stocks fell after a rally that pushed the nation’s stock gauges to the highest levels in 30 years and as rising yields spooked some investors. Electronics makers were the biggest drag on the Topix, which closed Tuesday at its highest level since June 1991. The Nikkei 225 pulled back after advancing beyond the key 30,000 mark to its highest since August 1990. The 14-day relative strength index on both measures continues to hover above the key 70 level, which some see as indicating the market is due for a correction. SoftBank Group closed slightly lower after climbing to a record high Tuesday.

The big story in markets remains the move in bonds, where ten-year Treasury yields are up nearly 40 basis points this year as vaccine progress and economic data begin drive investor focus on soaring inflation. Yields rose as far as 1.3330% before easing to 1.29%. The 2s10s, or the gap between 10-year and two-year U.S. yields, also reached its widest in nearly three years in anticipation of short-term rates going nowhere.

To be sure, there are plenty of reasons for the move, as investors try to price in the impact of a still-to-be-completed stimulus bill, and the reopening of the U.S. economy. As JPM discussed on Tuesday, from a trader’s perspective, the question “why yields are rising” matters even more. As JPM futures trader Matt Booras explains, if yields are rising for “good reasons” such as increasing GDP forecasts, then stocks will be fine. However, if there is a “bad” yield rising event such as a lack of demand for US Treasuries then stocks may come under pressure. Irrespective of the reason, Booras is looking for yields to eventually compress multiples which could disproportionately hit Tech while Cyclicals still move higher.

“Regarding the bond market sell-off, things are finally starting to get serious as real yields are on the rise, driven by bets … of central banks tightening sooner than previously expected,” said Arne Petimezas, analysts at AFS in Amsterdam. “Risk-assets are now becoming vulnerable to a pull-back.”

In the short term, however, investors expect central banks to keep monetary policy loose and minutes later on Wednesday from the U.S Federal Reserve’s January meeting are expected to reinforce that view.

“Recent remarks by (Fed Chair Jerome) Powell and several other Fed officials show that the FOMC is very comfortable with its current policy stance,” wrote UniCredit strategists.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose a second day as the greenback advanced versus all of its Group-of-10 peers apart from the yen. Scandinavian currencies led the decline, while the yen was little changed at around 106 per dollar after slipping for four consecutive days. The kiwi pared an intraday drop after the Auckland lockdown was lifted, before slipping again. Bitcoin’s rally showed little sign of abating after the token jumped past $51,000 for the first time. The euro fell 0.2% to $1.2075. Sterling, which has been surging as vaccinations roll out rapidly across the United Kingdom, was last down 0.1% at $1.3892.

In commodities, oil fluctuated around $60 a barrel in New York amid a deepening energy crisis in the U.S. Meanwhile, Bitcoin continues to rise and jumped past $51,000 for the first time. Gold touched a two-week low on Wednesday.

Looking to the day ahead there are a number of US data releases, including January’s retail sales, industrial production and PPI, while there’s also the NAHB housing market index for February. Otherwise, there’s also the January CPI readings from the UK and Canada. Separately, we’ll also get the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s January meeting, and the Fed’s Barkin, Rosengren and the BoE’s Ramsden will be speaking.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures little changed at 3,925.00
  • MXAP little changed at 220.84
  • MXAPJ up 0.4% to 744.85
  • Nikkei down 0.6% to 30,292.19
  • Topix down 0.2% to 1,961.49
  • Hang Seng Index up 1.1% to 31,084.94
  • Shanghai Composite up 1.4% to 3,655.09
  • German 10Y yield little changed at -0.35%
  • Euro down 0.3% to $1.2073
  • Brent futures up 0.6% to $63.72/bbl
  • Sensex down 0.7% to 51,736.50
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.5% to 6,885.22
  • Kospi down 0.9% to 3,133.73
  • Brent futures up 0.6% to $63.73/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.4% to $1,786.50
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.3% to 90.76

Top Overnight News

  • Mario Draghi said the European Union needs a common budget to battle recessions and urged Italians to pull together in a historic effort to rebuild their country, as he made his initial speech in the Senate as Italy’s prime minister
  • U.S. Treasuries are in for more wild gyrations, with volatility markets signaling that the benchmark bond yield could surge or drop by almost 30 basis points in the next three months. The three-month implied volatility on 10-year swap rates jumped by the most since March on Tuesday, surpassing the levels heading into the 2020 U.S. election
  • Europe is getting left in the dust like never before by the reflation frenzy across the Atlantic. Rising energy costs are driving yields on Treasuries and German bunds higher, yet market proxies for inflation expectations in the U.S. are outpacing those in the euro area by the most in over a decade
  • Germany had to pay to borrow money for the first time in nearly a year as market bets on global reflation have pushed up yields
  • U.K. inflation unexpectedly accelerated in January, in what economists say is the first step toward a significant increase that could bring the rate close to the Bank of England 2% target later this year
  • The European Union finalized an agreement with Pfizer Inc. and BioNTech SE for 200 million more doses of their Covid-19 vaccine, locking in a second-quarter supply boost as countries struggle to speed up their immunization drives
  • JPMorgan Chase & Co. is working with about 10 stressed or distressed borrowers in Europe hoping to lower the cost of government bailout loans in the debt market, according to senior bankers

A quick look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asia-Pac equity markets traded mostly lower after the lacklustre handover from Wall Street where the major indices finished mixed and retreated from fresh intraday records as the rising yield environment provided a headwind for stocks. ASX 200 (-0.5%) was negative with underperformance in gold miners after the precious metal retreated beneath USD 1800/oz and consumer staples were also pressured by declines in supermarket operator Coles despite posting profit growth in H1, as it warned sales in the sector could moderate significantly or even decline in H2 and beyond. However, the losses in the broader market were cushioned as participants digested a slew of mixed results including a jump in Westpac profits which boosted shares in the big 4 lender and with some slight encouragement from the announcement to lift the 5-day snap lockdown in Victoria state. Nikkei 225 (-0.6%) conformed to the subdued mood after reports suggested the government was not planning to lift COVID-19 emergency measures and following mixed data in which Machinery Orders showed surprise growth for December but Exports and Imports in January missed estimates, while KOSPI (-0.9%) suffered after domestic COVID-19 cases rose to the highest since early January following the Lunar New Year holiday. Conversely, Taiwan’s TAIEX (+3.5%) surged as it played catch up to the recent global advances on return from its 11-day closure and the Hang Seng (+1.1%) shrugged off early losses to extend on its best levels since early 2018 amid Hong Kong IPO optimism for this year and ahead of the return of mainland participants tomorrow. Finally, 10yr JGBs continued to weaken on spillover selling from USTs and with domestic yields tracking stateside counterparts which earlier rose to fresh cycle highs, while the absence of BoJ purchases in the market also contributed to the lack of demand for Japanese government bonds.

Top Asian News

  • Baidu’s Back With an $80 Billion Rally and Electric Car Ambition
  • Qatar Lays Out Ambition to Be LNG King for At Least Two Decades
  • Tokyo Olympics to Pick Female Minister as Chief, NHK Says
  • Hong Kong May Prohibit Insults of Public Officials, Reports Say

European stocks opened today’s session relatively flat/mixed but with a downside bias following a similarly downbeat APAC close. Meanwhile, US equity futures are trading flat but with the cyclically-driven Russell 2000 futures modestly underperforming. Bourses in Europe continue to follow the slightly softer trend (Euro Stoxx 50 -0.3%), considering the lack of news flow thus far in the run-up to FOMC minutes. Sectors are mainly in the red with no distinct risk bias and with some seemingly moving on idiosyncratic factors. Energy is the outperformer following the price action in the crude complex and the sectorial laggard is Retail (-2.9%) as Kering’s (-7.9%) biggest brand Gucci fell short of LFL sales expectations -10.3% vs exp. -7.2%. Moreover, in-fitting with this, the Consumer Discretionary sector and the CAC are softer, with Kering accounting for over 3% of the index’s weighting. Elsewhere, Rio Tinto (+3.4%) is higher after Co. announced FY profit after tax of USD 10.4bln vs prev. USD 7.0bln and a dividend of USD 5.57/shr vs prev. USD 4.43/shr. Meanwhile, British American Tobacco (-5.4%) trades lower, potentially due to commentary surrounding FY21 global tobacco volume , which is expected to fall by 3.0%. Akzo Nobel are (+1.6%) higher in the wake of their better-than-expected earnings. Turning away from earnings, Nestle (-0.3%) trades modestly into the red amid reports that it is offloading regional spring water brands, purified water business and beverage delivery operations in US and Canada to One Rock Capital Partners for USD 4.3bln.

Top European News

  • Europe Clinches Pfizer-BioNTech Deal for 200 Million More Doses
  • Draghi Tells Italy Lawmakers EU Needs Common Budget
  • Akzo Plans $1.2 Billion Buyback After Rival Snatches M&A Target
  • U.K. Inflation Ticks Higher on Its Way Toward BOE’s 2% Target

It remains largely a long term rates and reflation rather than general risk sentiment story in terms of Dollar direction and corresponding moves in other currencies by default, but global stocks are beginning to get twitchy about the implications of soaring yields and steeper curves to keep the Greenback underpinned on safe haven grounds even when US Treasuries and bond peers enjoy bouts of consolidation and recuperation. Indeed, the index is just shy of a fresh rebound high and mostly above the 21 DMA that comes in at 90.624 today within a 90.844-617 band in the run up to a raft of data, more Fed speak and FOMC minutes from the January policy meeting. However, the impending Usd 27 bn 20 year note auction results may have more bearing for the Buck via any reaction in USTs.

In FX, the Franc and Euro are bearing the brunt of the Dollar renaissance, as the former slips below 0.8950 and latter to circa 1.2060 with little in the way of support until 1.2050 for psychological reasons. Moreover, the single currency is also feeling the weight of relative Sterling strength or resilience as Eur/Gbp extends even further to the downside and through 0.8690.

  • NZD/AUD/GBP – Little traction from news that COVID-19 restrictions will be relaxed in Auckland and NZ as a whole from tomorrow, with the Kiwi pulling back beneath 0.7200 vs its US rival and underperforming against the Aussie as the Aud/Nzd cross rebounds from around 1.0750 to 1.0786. Conversely, Aud/Usd is keeping sight of 0.7250 in the run up to jobs data and some timely comments from RBA’s Kent overnight on the labour market (needs to be tight to lift earnings and inflation). Note, the Assistant Governor also announced tweaks to FX swaps in favour of longer term foreign currency purchases, but with no impact on the value of the Aud. Elsewhere, the Pound has lost grip of the 1.3900 handle even though UK inflation metrics were firmer than forecast and Cable now awaits rhetoric from BoE’s Ramsden for some independent impetus.
  • JPY/CAD – The Yen has clawed back some lost ground after sliding under 106.00 as JGBs play catch-up in yields and long end swap rates spike, but Usd/Jpy is still elevated following the breach of key resistance levels. Similarly, the Loonie failed to tread water above 1.2700, but has pared some of its decline from 1.2719 before Canadian CPI alongside firmer crude.

In commodities, WTI and Brent front month futures continue with their upward trajectories as the complex remains elevated by underlying fundamentals (vaccine/reflationary/recovery hopes and OPEC+ support), alongside the short-term supply cripple in Texas amid serious adverse weather conditions – with US output hit by some 3.5mln BPD, roughly equivalent to Iraq’s oil production. Texas produced around 4.6mln BPD according to the latest data by the EIA. These factors have kept WTI buoyed around 60.50/bbl (vs low USD 59.55/bbl) whilst its Brent counterpart probes USD 64/bbl (vs low USD 62.75/bbl). Crude prices at these levels have prompted market chatter regarding OPEC+ politics and policy; it’s expected that hawkish producers, namely Russia, will exert some pressure on the group to ease output cuts, with recent commentary from Russia’s Novak also suggesting that the market is balanced. However, Saudi will have to avoid a rift widening as the Kingdom itself is currently poised to reintroduced the 1mln BPD of oil which was taken offline as a goodwill gesture in January. ING suggests “It is unlikely that the group would bring a little over 2.2mln BPD of supply back onto the market, aware that the market would baulk at such a decision”, but highlights that there is room for some sort of easing, contingent on how much output volume Saudi decides to return from its cuts. Note, the Saudi Energy Minister is set to speak today at 12:00GMT/07:00EST at the IEA-IEF-OPEC Symposium on Energy Outlooks. Focus will be on his short/medium term outlooks – which could provide some hints as to the producer’s preferred policy route ahead of the JMMC and OPEC+ meeting on Mar 3rd and 4th respectively. The minister will likely reaffirm the group’s flexibility and the need to be proactive, whilst attempting to steer clear of any direct comments on the upcoming meeting itself. Remarks surrounding the Texas developments could echo the Qatari Energy Minister’s view in which he highlighted the temporary nature of the weather disruptions and the robustness of the US oil market. Analysts at ING have upgraded their oil forecasts, with 2021 Brent seen averaging USD 65/bbl (vs. prev. USD 60/bbl) – “While we see limited further upside in the first half of this year, it is over the second half of this year where we see more upside, given the expectation of a stronger demand recovery over this period.” That being said, the bank is aware of the clear downside risks lingering, including 1) further COVID waves, 2) Fed tapering and 3) the “swift” return of Iranian oil into the market and 4) the non-zero chance of OPEC+ not reaching an accord. Elsewhere, precious metals erred lower during early European hours with spot gold losing further ground below USD 1,800/oz as a result of rising real yields, a firmer Dollar and the confirmed “death cross” setup from a technical standpoint. Downside levels for the yellow metal include USD 1,774.85/oz, USD 1,773.10/oz and USD 1,764/oz, marking the 1st Dec, 27th Nov and 30th Nov lows respectively. Turning to base metals, LME copper is softer today amid the firmer Buck and the broader defensive bias but remains comfortable above USD 8,000/t.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Jan. PPI Final Demand MoM, est. 0.4%, prior 0.3%; PPI Final Demand YoY, est. 0.9%, prior 0.8%
  • 8:30am: Jan. PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 1.1%, prior 1.2%; PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.1%
  • 8:30am: Jan. Retail Sales Control Group, est. 1.0%, prior -1.9%; Retail Sales Advance MoM, est. 1.1%, prior -0.7%
  • 8:30am: Jan. Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM, est. 1.0%, prior -1.4%; Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas, est. 0.9%, prior -2.1%
  • 9:15am: Jan. Capacity Utilization, est. 74.9%, prior 74.5%;
  • Manufacturing (SIC) Production, est. 0.7%, prior 0.9%
  • Industrial Production MoM, est. 0.5%, prior 1.6%
  • 10am: Dec. Business Inventories, est. 0.5%, prior 0.5%;
  • 10am: Feb. NAHB Housing Market Index, est. 83, prior 83
  • 2pm: Jan. FOMC Meeting Minutes

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

With the US arriving back at their (home) offices after Monday’s holiday, the astonishing equity rally we’ve seen in recent days has showed signs of petering out over the last 24 hours, as the MSCI World Index (-0.02pts and -0.00%) missed out by the narrowest margin on a 12th successive gain yesterday that would have been the longest winning run since 2003. This slight pullback in equities was evident across different regions, with Europe’s STOXX 600 and S&P 500 both falling -0.06% from their recent highs. The reflation rotation was in full force though as rising yields and climbing oil prices helped Bank (+2.79%) and Energy (+2.26%) stocks to keep the S&P 500 near unchanged, while European Banks (+1.06%) and Basic Resources (+1.24%) did the same for the STOXX 600. Meanwhile Tech Hardware (-1.33%) and defensive bond-proxies such as Real Estate (-1.07%) and Utilities (-1.14%) were among the S&P’s worst performers.

Indeed the bigger story was taking place in sovereign bond markets, where the selloff continued to gather pace as investors stuck with the reflation trade, not least as Congress is increasingly focusing on the passage of stimulus now that former President Trump’s impeachment hearing is out of the way. Yesterday saw a significant bear-steepening in US Treasuries, with 10yr yields up +10.6bps to 1.314% (trading at 1.296% this morning), taking them above their highs last March when we had a crazy period where Treasuries climbed over 85bps (including intra-day extremes) in around 7 business days before reversing the move over the next 10.

Tuesday’s move took the 2y10y yield curve +8.9bps steeper to 118.4bps – its steepest point since March of 2017. 30 year yields were +8.0bps higher yesterday at 2.09%. The session saw the biggest daily move higher for US yields since that crazy March period in the midst of the initial global pandemic response. On top of this, inflation expectations powered forward as well, with 10yr US breakevens at a fresh 6-year high of 2.25%, as 2-year breakevens climbed to their highest level in nearly a decade, at 2.65%. President Biden himself said “bigger is better now” on stimulus in a townhall meeting last night. We also got confirmation that President Biden would make his first address to a joint session of Congress in March, with the administration waiting to get the current pandemic relief plan through beforehand. The topic of that address is expected to focus on Biden’s longer term economic recovery plan including infrastructure and clean energy initiatives as well as any measures that do not make it into the initial bill – notably the minimum wage hike. On the stimulus package, House Majority Leader Hoyer said in a call with Congressional Democrats that the House is aiming to vote on Feb 26. A vote in the Senate will take place shortly thereafter in order for the benefits to be enacted by mid-March when much of the previous pandemic relief runs out.

Note that it was announced yesterday that Powell will be delivering the semi annual policy report to Congress next Tuesday so it’ll be interesting whether he continues to be as dovish as he has been recently given these moves and the ongoing stimulus debate. 7 days is a long time in markets so we’ll see where yields are then but it could be a big focal point for markets.

Over in Europe it was much the same story yesterday, with 10yr bunds seeing a +3.3bps increase to -0.35%, their highest level since last June. The moves were given added support by a couple of positive data surprises, with the expectations reading in the German ZEW survey unexpectedly rising to a 5-month high of 71.2 (vs. 59.5 expected), whilst the Q4 GDP print for the Euro Area as a whole was revised down a tenth to show a smaller -0.6% contraction. Italian debt was on its way to once again outperforming, with their spread over bunds tightening a further -1.5bps intraday to a 5-year low of 0.89%, before a late widening saw the spread finish +1.2bps wider overall at 0.92%. That came as a 10-year bond offering in Italy attracted a record €110bn in demand, demonstrating how investor expectations are incredibly high for Draghi’s performance as PM. Speaking of Draghi, his government will face a confidence vote in the Senate today, before another vote takes place in the lower house tomorrow, though given his broad base of support among most of the political parties, he should count on a very large majority in parliament.

Asian markets are generally dipping this morning with the Nikkei (-0.56%), India’s Nifty (-0.60%), Kospi (-1.12%) and Asx (-0.46%) all down. An exception to this pattern is the Hang Seng which is up +0.76%. China’s markets continue to remain closed and will again open tomorrow. Futures on the S&P 500 are trading broadly flat while in keeping with the slight risk off tone, the US dollar index is up +0.15%.

Turning to the coronavirus pandemic, our chart in today’s email looks at the share of people in England who’ve got Covid-19 antibodies by age, which comes from the Office for National Statistics’ Covid-19 infection survey. The second of this series came out yesterday, which has allowed us to compare the data between the two points, and it shows that the biggest spike in antibodies has been among the over-80s. This makes sense when you consider that they were first in line for vaccinations, and that it takes another 2-3 weeks for the body to generate enough antibodies to fight infection. Over the coming weeks, you’d expect that increased vaccination numbers should send those percentages up further for the elderly groups, and move us closer to herd immunity. So this is a good news graph which hopefully will turn into a huge drop in cases for this group when the economy reopens. The vaccination table and the usual case and fatalities tables are in the pdf as ever.

Elsewhere, President Biden expressed confidence in his target of administering 100m vaccine doses within his first 100 days in office. In a tweet, Biden said “I believe we’ll not only reach that, we’ll break it.” This comes as the country is increasing vaccine supply to 13.5mn doses per week, up from 11mn and the Biden Administration will double the number of shots available at pharmacies. During the aforementioned townhall late last night, President Biden said that the US expects to have 600M vaccine doses by the end of July, which would make it possible to inoculate all residents. The president also made clear that the goal is to have schools reopened fully by the end of his first 100 days. Meanwhile, amidst the progress on vaccinations, the US has also seen a 39% decline in hospitalisations from a winter peak of 114,281 on January 25. As of yesterday, the hospitalization from the disease stood at 70,277.

Over in the EU, the European Medicines Agency received Johnson & Johnson’s application for conditional marketing authorisation for its Covid vaccine. The EMA said that they could issue an opinion by mid-March, which would make it the fourth vaccine to be authorised in the EU, after BioNTech/Pfizer, Moderna and AstraZeneca’s.

In other news, the US energy shortages continued yesterday thanks to the recent cold weather, with nearly 5 million left without electricity. Given the freezing temperatures in Texas and the Midwestern US, oil refineries and shale wells were closed which continued to push up oil prices. Occidental Petroleum (+4.21%), the second largest crude producer in the Permian Basin, declared a force majeure to its customers – indicating to buyers that Occidental is being forced to curb deliveries for an undetermined length of time. However, WTI oil prices have eased back from their intraday highs on Monday, when they hit $60.95/bbl, and closed yesterday at $60.10/bbl.

Given the power outages in Texas, planned remarks from Dallas Fed President Kaplan were cancelled yesterday. However, we did hear from St Louis Fed President Bullard, who said in a CNBC interview that he didn’t think there was a bubble in markets, even as he acknowledged that stocks were “highly valued on the whole.” We also heard from the San Francisco Fed President Daly that she does not believe there is “unwanted inflation right around the corner” and that the fear of inflation could cost “millions of jobs”. Staying on the Fed, later today we’ll get the minutes of last month’s FOMC meeting, which our US economists say should point to upside risks to the growth outlook given the prospects for further fiscal stimulus this year. However, as the comments above illustrate, Fed officials have resoundingly reiterated that the threat of an unwanted inflation overshoot remains low, and Chair Powell set the tone last week when he reiterated that the US was still “very far from a strong labor market whose benefits are broadly shared”. So overall our economists don’t expect the minutes to yield any specifics on tapering other than to reiterate that they’ll seek to provide guidance “well in advance”.

To the day ahead now, and there are a number of US data releases, including January’s retail sales, industrial production and PPI, while there’s also the NAHB housing market index for February. Otherwise, there’s also the January CPI readings from the UK and Canada. Separately, we’ll also get the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s January meeting, and the Fed’s Barkin, Rosengren and the BoE’s Ramsden will be speaking.

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)WEDNESDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED   //Hang Sang CLOSED    /The Nikkei closed DOWN 175.02 POINTS OR 0.58%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.42%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed /Oil UP TO 61.22 dollars per barrel for WTI and 64.36 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.4432 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS //TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED//CORONAVIRUS/PANDEMIC/TRUMP TESTS POSITIVE FOR COVID 19  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3 C CHINA

CHINA/USA

USA warship sails by China controlled islands angering Beijing again

(zerohedge)

US Warship Sails By China-Controlled Islands, Angering Beijing

 
WEDNESDAY, FEB 17, 2021 – 7:15

Following conflicts over trade, technology, and capital markets, tensions between the US and China continue to rise with the latest escalation coming after a US Navy warship sailed near China-claimed islands in the South China Sea on Wednesday. This was the second sailing of a warship near China’s heavily disputed islands under the Biden administration, according to Reuters.

The US Navy’s 7th Fleet’s USS Russell (DDG-59), an Arleigh Burke-class destroyer, sailed within 12 nautical miles on a “freedom of navigation operation” (FONOP) of the Spratly Islands, consistent with international law.

USS Russell

“This freedom of navigation operation (“FONOP”) upheld the rights, freedoms and lawful uses of the sea recognized in international law by challenging unlawful restrictions on innocent passage imposed by China, Vietnam and Taiwan,” Lt. Joe Keiley, a spokesman for the US Navy’s 7th Fleet, said in a statement.

The Russell’s FONOP followed a similar operation earlier this month when the USS John S. McCain, an Arleigh Burke-class destroyer, entered the waters near Paracel islands. This is the second sailing in the last couple of weeks under the Biden administration as they step up pressure on China.

The two destroyers’ sailings in the South China Sea come a little more than one week after USS Theodore Roosevelt and USS Nimitz, two supercarriers, conducted rare drills in the heavily disputed waters.

“Unlawful and sweeping maritime claims in the South China Sea pose a serious threat to the freedom of the sea, including freedoms of navigation and overflight, free trade and unimpeded commerce, and freedom of economic opportunity for South China Sea littoral nations,” Keiley said in the statement.

The heavily disputed waterway is one of the flashpoints in the US-China relationship, including a trade war, technology war, US sanctions, Hong Kong and Taiwan.

Meanwhile, according to the latest naval deployment map from Stratfor, CVN 71 Roosevelt is underway in the Philippine Sea, and CVN68 Eisenhower is underway in the Atlantic Ocean following a Middle East deployment.

Over the past year, the US has increased aerial patrols, and US Navy warship sails through the disrupted region and near and through the Taiwan Strait, an exercise aimed at angering Beijing. Such “close encounters” and US flyovers and sail throughs in the South China Sea and near Taiwan became more frequent during the Trump presidency’s tail-end.

In President Biden’s first foreign policy address earlier this month, he described China as the “most serious competitor” to the US and promised to confront Bejing on multiple levels.

“We’ll confront China’s economic abuses, counter its aggressive, coercive actions, and push back on China’s attack on human rights, intellectual property, and global governance,” Biden said.

end

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

ISRAEL/CORONAVIRUS
 
Very unusual 5 Israel children have down down with the coronavirus
(zerohedge)

Israeli Hospitals Brace For Rising Numbers Of Children Infected With COVID As Schools Re-Open

 
TUESDAY, FEB 16, 2021 – 22:50

Just as it led the world during the vaccination process (with only a few suspicious deaths), Israel is on track to lead the US and Europe in reopening schools and its broader society. And its hospitals are already bracing for a surge in deadly infections (worsened by individuals’ complications and the “post-COVID” syndrome) as the cases of five desperately ill children captivate the country.

Israel isn’t yet vaccinating children under the age of 16 at this stage even as schools are set to reopen, but public health officials are already out telling the press and the public, not to worry, because Israel will have a team of doctors at the ready.

Here’s more from Haaretz:

On Sunday, the head of the general medicine division at the Health Ministry, Dr. Sigal Liverant Taub, wrote a letter to hospital administrators urging them to adjust their infrastructure to suit children, and to prepare their daily medical teams to treat young people by February 25.

“In the upcoming two months, we expect an upward trend in infection in children of all ages in Israel,” Liverant Taub wrote. “Evidence is accumulating for higher infection rates of the British variant, whose prevalence in Israel is about 80 percent, among children.”

The doctor added that treating children in the same fashion as adults “is not a solution that we want, and therefore we must prepare infrastructure specifically for children, [staffed] by a team that is skilled in treating children alone.”

These statements are landing as five Israeli children have been hospitalized in Meir Hospital in Kfar Sava for COVID-19 and its complications, one of them in serious condition. Three of them (a 13-year-old, a 10-year-old and a 1.5-year-old) have active COVID-19 infections.

One of the doctors treating the children added that COVID complications can be unpredictable.

Dr. Dganit Adam, the director of Meir Hospital’s pediatric intensive care unit, said that “We are witness to the fact that despite everyone being certain that children are not endangered by the coronavirus, there are an increasing number of children being hospitalized for COVID-19 and the complications that follow it.”

She added, “Some come to us in a more complicated medical state. It’s important to be aware of this and to pay attention to symptoms after coronavirus infection – fever, rashes, redness in the eyes and other symptoms, even a month after falling ill.”

In other news, back in New York, Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s latest announcement about the positivity rate in the Empire State declining to a new post-November low has got markets people talking about the outlook for the economic reopening in the US.

end

IRAQ/USA

Rockets pound USA base in Northern Iraq

(South Front)

Rockets Pound US Base In Northern Iraq Leading To Casualties

 
TUESDAY, FEB 16, 2021 – 23:10

Submitted by South Front,

The United States has already started bearing the consequences of the decision of the Biden administration to halt the troop drawdown from the Greater Middle East.

On February 15th, 14 rockets struck the area of the US military base near Erbil International Airport, 4 of them within the compound, 10 of which were near strikes. One private contractor was killed and 5 were injured. In a rare event, 1 US service member was also wounded.

The location of the attack coincides with Turkey’s operation “Claw Eagle 2” which targets the alleged Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) positions. Most of northern Iraq was on edge, as a result.

Turkey and the US, as NATO allies appear to not be cooperating whatsoever, as they’re pursuing separate goals in largely the same areas of the Middle East.

Ankara’s activities contribute to the chaos of the Middle East situation, as it targets the PKK, while the US mostly targets and is targeted by Iranian-backed forces.

Another US ally, this time one that aligns its activities with it – Israel struck unknown targets around Damascus.

It launched missiles from the occupied Golan Heights, and many of them were intercepted by Syrian air defenses, however, some landed on their targets. It is unclear what was targeted and what the damage was.

There have been no strikes by Israel through Lebanese airspace after a drone was downed, and Hezbollah vowed to attempt to destroy any Israeli aircraft that encroaches on its airspace.

Movements throughout the Middle East are beginning for the US and its allies.

In Iraq, many of the targeted convoys in the last several weeks have reached their destinations.

With a lack of reports of convoy targeting, it would appear that the currently static positions are under threat.

Iran is continuing its movements, undermining US and Israeli influence, and it has had general success in recent weeks. The US is fighting back against it.

On February 11th, a truck moving supplies for an Iranian-backed unit, al-Haydariyun, was targeted near Syria’s border with Iraq.

According to the Resistance Media Network, the truck was targeted by a drone likely operated by the US military.

In Yemen, the US said it would attempt to impose a peace deal, on its own terms. It claims to stop supporting Saudi Arabia’s genocidal intervention. Washington, however, also continues providing defensive services and intelligence.

Following Joe Biden’s first foreign policy speech, the time for the US to move has come. In the coming days, the “fight against ISIS” is sure to ramp up, alongside various other movements throughout the Middle East.

White House Says ‘Response Coming’ To Rocket Attack That Wounded Americans In Iraq

 
WEDNESDAY, FEB 17, 2021 – 10:50

The Biden administration is already facing its first significant Iraq crisis following the year-long escalation with pro-Iranian Iraqi paramilitary forces in the country on the heels of Trump’s ordered assassination of IRGC Gen. Qassem Soleimani and militia commander Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis on Jan.3 of last year.

The White House now says it has “the right to respond at the time and place of our choosing,” according to the latest statement in response to questions of who was behind a major Monday night rocket attack on an American military base in Iraqi Kurdistan.

“We’re still working through attribution with our Iraqi partners to determine precise attribution for this attack,” White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki said reporters. In particular Psaki suggested a retaliatory strike is likely coming.

The Monday night attack killed an international contractor and wounded at least one American soldier. Multiple US military contractors were also among the wounded.

Video of one of the rockets impacting near the base:

Some of the details were relayed in international reports as follows:

Fourteen rockets were fired toward Erbil Air Base in Iraq’s Kurdistan region late Monday night, with three hitting the facilities where U.S. troops are based, according to Col. Wayne Marotto, U.S. spokesperson for the U.S.-led coalition to defeat the Islamic State.

One civilian contractor, who was not American, was killed, and nine others were injured, including one U.S. service member and four U.S. civilian contractors, Marotto said Tuesday.

It constitutes the single biggest rocket attack on a US base of the Biden presidency.

While an obscure group called Awliya al-Dam took credit for the attack, US intelligence is said to be closely eyeing Iran-backed militia groups, also after a recent uptick in rocket volleys fired on the US Embassy in Baghdad.

Seeing international reports which pointed the finger at Iran (also based on some statements of Kurdish officials apparently), Iran vehemently denied it was behind the Erbil attack, with Tehran officials calling it “suspicious”.

 

Damage to shop across from Erbil base after Monday’s rocket attack, AFP/Getty

“Suspicious attempts to link the Erbil attacks to Iran are condemned,” Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson Saeed Khatibzadeh said according to state-run IRNA. “Iran considers the stability and security of Iraq central to the region and its neighbors, and rejects any attempt that disturbs the peace and order of the country,” he added.

end

SYRIA/RUSSIA/USA//TURKEY

Seems that we are back to where we started from in Syira

(South Front)

A Russian Winter In Syria: Nearing Zero Hour

 
WEDNESDAY, FEB 17, 2021 – 2:00

Submitted by SouthFront,

The further the world comes into 2021, the more it begins to resemble 2014, at least in Syria, mixed in with a bit of 2015. ISIS is returning, the US is bracing to “fight it”. The “moderate opposition” is living its renaissance fighting against the Syrian Government and its Russian support.

The 2015 bit is the fact that Russia is present, and its activity has greatly increased in the first weeks of February.

In the ten days leading up to February 14th, Russia reportedly carried out more than 700 airstrikes on ISIS cells in Central Syria. This is an impressive number, but the Syrian Observatory of Human Rights claimed that as a result only 33 ISIS terrorists had been killed. According to the same report, the Syrian Arab Army had more significant losses – 56, but it is being targeted by almost every “moderate” and “radical” party on the battlefield.

The attempts to rebrand Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham as a “reformed group” that’s no longer affiliated with al-Qaeda also continues. The US has chosen its future ally.

In a clear disagreement, on February 13th, Russia targeted a secret HTS headquarters in Idlib and completely devastated it. It also continues to attempt and enforce the ceasefire agreement in Idlib, tracking every violation and punishing it. The agreement is largely ineffective due to Turkey’s non-implementation.

Moscow is not only on the giving end, but also on the receiving one.

On February 14th, an Orlan-10 drone was reportedly downed by militants over Greater Idlib. In Manbij, near the Turkish-occupied region of Afrin, the Turkish-backed “moderate opposition” opened fire on Russia’s military police. Russia was forced to deploy more troops and equipment to the region.

On February 13th, the Russian military sent a new batch of equipment and vehicles to its base at the Qamishli Airport.

In the area of speculation, Russian opposition media reported that Russia was extending the runway at the Hmeimim Air Base, to be able to host strategic long-range aircraft. It is a potential preparation for future chaos. Or an attempt to show parity with the United States’ continued flights of B-52 bombers over the Middle East in recent months.

The United States is not keeping still, while Russia is operating. In a rare event, it eliminated an ISIS commander in a drone strike. It also vacated one of its many positions in northeastern Syria.

This is only significant in the view that it likely will reposition, and support some of its new allies. The biggest players have began their movements in expectation of the coming storm.

END

IRAN/USA//

Iran to block nuclear inspections starting next week if the uSA does not drop sanctions. What will the clueless Biden do?

(zerohedge)

Iran To Block Nuclear Inspections Starting Next Week If US Doesn’t Drop Sanctions

 
WEDNESDAY, FEB 17, 2021 – 4:15

European signatories to the 2015 Iran nuclear deal are warning Tehran not to block inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) after Iranian officials issued an ultimatum to Washington threatening to do just that. “It would be completely unacceptable should Iran obstruct IAEA inspections,” a German diplomat was cited as saying in Reuters.

“We urge Iran to refrain from this step, and are in close contact regarding this issue with our partners, including the United States,” the diplomat added. This was in response to Iran announcing on Monday that it’s poised to limit inspections should the United States not lift at least some sanctions by February 21st.

“Foreign ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh said President Hassan Rouhani’s government is obliged by law to stop voluntarily implementing the Additional Protocol – which gives the UN’s nuclear watchdog more inspection authority – if US sanctions on Iran’s oil and banking sectors are not lifted by February 21,” Al Jazeera reported.

Alongside Iran lately blowing past uranium enrichment caps set by the terms of the JCPOA, barring snap inspections from nuclear facilities would constitute the most serious escalation by the Islamic Republic thus far.

It further comes on the heels of Iran for the first time producing uranium metal which can be a core component of nuclear weapons and is a major step crossing over from uranium enrichment.

Tehran has been ratcheting its defiance for weeks as part of efforts to leverage the Biden White House into acting swiftly to lift sanctions, which has squeezed the population and choked the national economy, sending the currency spiraling over the past year.

The February 21st deadline to lift sanctions was part of December legislation past by Iran’s largely hardline parliament. Interestingly President Hassan Rouhani opposed taking the dramatic step, however, he’s required under Iranian law to implement it.

The law was presented as ‘revenge’ and the necessary repercussions aimed at Washington for the January 2020 assassination by US drone strike of IRGC Quds Force General Qassem Soleimani.

Despite Biden’s prior campaign promises to quickly restore US participation in the nuclear deal, the US is now telling Iran it must come back into compliance first, while Tehran has firmly maintained it was Washington that backed out first.

end

6.Global Issues

EBOLA

Will The New Ebola Epidemic In Africa Soon Become The Next Global Pandemic?

 
WEDNESDAY, FEB 17, 2021 – 6:30

Authored by Michael Snyder via TheMostImportantNews.,com,

Ebola is back, and people are starting to die.  So should we be concerned?

When I first heard that a new Ebola cluster had been identified in eastern Congo, I didn’t think too much of it, but now an “Ebola epidemic” has been declared in the country of Guinea in west Africa.  So far, four people have died, and more victims are being treated.  These are the very first Ebola deaths in Guinea since the horrific outbreak that finally ended in 2016.  Global health authorities are rushing to contain this new “epidemic”, because there would be grave consequences if an Ebola outbreak is allowed to spiral out of control.  According to Wikipedia, the average death rate during an Ebola outbreak is “about 50%”…

Ebola, also known as Ebola virus disease (EVD) or Ebola hemorrhagic fever (EHF), is a viral hemorrhagic fever of humans and other primates caused by ebolaviruses.[1] Signs and symptoms typically start between two days and three weeks after contracting the virus with a feversore throatmuscular pain, and headaches.[1] Vomitingdiarrhoea and rash usually follow, along with decreased function of the liver and kidneys.[1] At this time, some people begin to bleed both internally and externally. The disease has a high risk of death, killing 25% to 90% of those infected, with an average of about 50%.[1] This is often due to low blood pressure from fluid loss, and typically follows six to 16 days after symptoms appear.

Dying from Ebola is a truly horrifying way to go.

I am sure that many of you remember the panic that ensued a number of years ago when it was revealed that Ebola patients were being flown into the United States for treatment.  Thankfully that did not result in an outbreak here in the United States, but at the time people were extremely concerned about what might happen.

Once it gets loose in an area, Ebola can be an absolute nightmare for health authorities, and that is why the epidemic in Guinea is being taken so seriously

On Monday morning, a fourth victim died in Guinea and four others are being treated in an isolation centre, suffering vomiting, diarrhoea and bleeding. At least seven of the people who contracted the virus attended the funeral of a nurse in Goueke, a town near the Liberian border, on 1 February the government said on Sunday.

“All measures are being taken to stem this epidemic as soon as possible,” Guinea’s health ministry said, declaring an outbreak of the virus last seen in the region in 2016 – at the end of a traumatic three-year outbreak, which infected more than 28,000 people and caused 11,000 deaths in west Africa.

Hopefully they have gotten on top of this outbreak early enough to be able to contain it easily.

But what is strange is that this new epidemic in Guinea comes right on the heels of a new outbreak in eastern Congo

Guinea’s new outbreak follows a resurgence in eastern Congo, where four cases have been reported – the latest on 14 February. Since August 2018, the region has been grappling with the world’s first Ebola outbreak in an active conflict zone. The new cluster emerged three months after the country’s last outbreak – in the west of the country – was declared over. In total, there have been 12 outbreaks in Congo since Ebola was first identified in 1976.

If you look at a map of Africa, you will see that Guinea and Congo are not anywhere near each other.

So right now we have two outbreaks of Ebola at the exact same time in two vastly different regions of the continent.

That seems rather odd, doesn’t it?

The good news is that Ebola does not spread very easily from person to person, and global health authorities have had a lot of practice in containing Ebola outbreaks over the last several decades.  As one official told NBC News, speed is the key to containing these sorts of outbreaks…

“There are tools and systems that can be mobilized quickly to address these cases. The key will be speed, ensuring appropriate people and materials are where they need to be,” said Donald Brooks, chief executive officer of Initiative: Eau, a U.S. aid group focused on water and sanitation, who has worked on establishing public health emergency response systems in West Africa.

“If not and it spreads to urban centers, it could result in disastrous loss of life,” he warned.

Ebola also doesn’t seem to fit the profile of the sort of killer global pandemic that I warned about in my latest book.  A few years ago an experimental “Ebola vaccine” was developed, and pharmaceutical companies have also come up with treatments that appear to be at least somewhat successful in temporarily extending the lives of Ebola patients.

But if we ever did see a global Ebola pandemic, the death rate would still be extremely high.

And it should be noted that governments around the globe have been attempting to weaponize Ebola and other similar diseases.  The following comes from a Daily Mail report that was published just the other day

Experts fear Russia could weaponise the deadly Ebola virus as part of a catastrophic biological weapons project.

Unit 68240 of Moscow’s FSB spy agency – linked to the Salisbury Novichok poisonings – is thought to be behind the programme codenamed Toledo.

It is believed the unit is researching both Ebola and the even-more deadly Marburg virus.

If the Russians (or someone else) cooks up a weaponized version of Ebola in a lab and it gets out into the general public, it is doubtful that any existing vaccine or treatment would be effective against it.

As far as this new epidemic in Africa is concerned, we will watch and see what happens.

Outbreaks of disease happen all the time, and very few of those outbreaks ever develop into true global pandemics.

However, experts assure us that it is just a matter of time before a killer pandemic that will be much, much worse than we are experiencing now comes along.

That future pandemic may occur naturally, or it may happen because a really nasty bug gets released from a lab on purpose or accidentally.

However it happens, the truth is that we are extremely vulnerable, and COVID has already shown everyone how much sheer panic a global pandemic can cause.

*  *  *

Michael’s new book entitled “Lost Prophecies Of The Future Of America” is now available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.

END
 
Trialsite

Ivermectin Study Reveals Fantastic Results: 100% of 60 Patients Better in an Average of Just Under 6 Days

Ivermectin Study Reveals Fantastic Results 100% of 60 Patients Better in an Average of Just Under 6 Days

TrialsiteN 

 

Recently, TrialSite News reported on a study sponsored in Bangladesh by Upazila Health & Family Planning Officer’s (UHFPO) Office, Chakoria, Cox’ Bazar and Abu Taiub Mohammad Mohiuddin Chowdhury, First Affiliated Hospital Xi’an Jiaotong University. The observational study was conducted from May 2 to June 5, 2020. The principal investigators observed 181 patients who tested positive for COVID-19. The Research team recently shared the results via preprint server and ResearchGate. The study team concluded that concerning the treatment outcome, adverse effect, and safety, the Ivermectin and Doxycycline combination was superior to the use of Hydroxychloroquine and Azithromycin therapy in the case of mild to moderate degree of COVID-19 patients. Although both treatment regimens were observed to be effective for this study, the Ivermectin treatment was superior.

The Study

Sponsored by  Upazila Health & Family Planning Officer’s (UHFPO) Office, Chakoria, Cox’s Bazar in collaboration with Abu Taiub Mohammad Mohiuddin Chowdhury, First Affiliated Hospital Xi’an Jiaotong University, China, this study was conducted for just over a month from May to June 2020. The investigators observed 181 patients who had tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 infection by RT PCR undertaken at Cox’s Bazar Medical College. The participants were observed carefully for family history and any comorbidities that could disqualify them for this study. As it turned out, 42 participants had comorbid conditions that could impact recovery time; 14 participants were unwilling to participate in the study and 9 participants failed to participate (3 from group A and 6 from group B) for follow up sample collection so these were excluded. Following exclusion, 116 patients were included with mild to moderate degree of illness with normal or near-normal chest radiograph and Oxygen Saturation more than 95% were included in this study. All the patients enrolled in the study were treated as an outpatient protocol.

Regimen

The study patients were divided into two groups including (A) (n=60): Ivermectin 200 µgm/kg single dose and Doxycycline 100 mg BID for 10 days. Note this is very similar to Dr. Tarek Alam’s successful hospital approved protocol study at the Bangladesh Medical College. Group (B) (n=56): Hydroxychloroquine 400mg first day then 200mg BID for 9 days plus Azithromycin 500mg daily for 5 days.

Standard of Care

Additionally the principal investigators and staff treated the patients with any fever, headache, cough, myalgia, and other complaints. The participants were advised for self-isolation, proper nutrition, hydration and a sanitary environment.

Treatment Monitoring

The team evaluated the patients every 2 days starting from the 5th day (Asymptomatic patients) or the 2nd non-symptomatic day from the first day of the drug intake by PCR study or nasopharyngeal and throat swab in each group. Regular contracts were maintained to find out the adverse or side effects of the therapy.

The Results

Much like the results from Dr. Rajter at Broward County, Florida, United States and Dr. Tarek Alam, Bangladesh Medical College, the results here were quite positive.

Group A, the Ivermectin group, experienced a 100% recovery rate, with a mean symptomatic recovery duration of 5.93 days and negative PCR was on 8.93 days. The Group B results (Hydroxychloroquine and Azithromycin) was 96.36%, 6.99 days and 9.33 days respectively.

55.10% of the patients in Group A (Ivermectin) gained symptomatic recovery on the 5th day. A mild degree of adverse effect was noted by 31.67% of patients; lethargy in 14 (23.3%), nausea in 11 (18.3%) and occasional vertigo in 7 (11.66%) of patients.

In the meantime, Group B experienced some degree of adverse effects; 13 (23.21%) mild type of blurring of vision and headache; 22 (39.2%) increased lethargy and dizziness, 10 (17.85%) occasional palpitation, and 9 (16.07%) experienced nausea and vomiting.

Conclusion

The Upazila Health & Family Planning Officer’s (UHFPO) Office, Chakoria, Cox’s Bazar in collaboration with Abu Taiub Mohammad Mohiuddin Chowdhury, First Affiliated Hospital Xi’an Jiaotong University in China has come to the conclusion that in regards to treatment outcome, adverse effect and safety, the Ivermectin and Doxycycline combination is superior to Hydroxychloroquine-Azithromycin therapy in the case of mild to moderate degree of COVID-19 patients. The Bangladeshi and Chinese team found that both treatments were effective in this study. However, the Ivermectin results were superior to Hydroxychloroquine.

Conversation

This controlled observational study in Bangladesh produces some relatively compelling results. Patients tested positive for COVID-19 are taking a combination of Ivermectin and Doxycycline with a 100% success rate. On average, the mean symptomatic recovery was 5.93 days with a disease that can stretch for two to three weeks.

TrialSite News has interviewed Dr. Jean-Jaques Rajter, MD, of Broward County Health who conducted an off-label, county health approved protocol. On June 9th TrialSite News reported on the results: the team found that Ivermectin was associated with lower mortality during treatment of COVID-19 patients in this carefully controlled off label observational study. Interestingly Dr. Rajter hasn’t found too many eager peer review publications to publish the results despite the fact that a major U.S. County Health Board approved the off label use observational study.

Moreover, TrialSite News interviewed Dr. Tarek Alum who reported “astounding results” for the hospital approved protocol at the Bangladesh Medical College.

At the Intersection of COVID-19, Drugs, Money & Power: The Complex

TrialSite News agrees with WHO and the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) that an important next step for acceptance of Ivermectin as a treatment for COVID-19 would include results from randomized controlled trials. And a number of them have commenced.

One of the at least 31 Ivermectin clinical trials has been completed from the University of Baghdad. Principal Investigator Faiq Gorial is trying to get the study results published. The outcome is not clear yet. Dr.Eli Schwartz, a prominent key opinion leader out of the renowned Sheba Medical Center, will complete an Ivermectin randomized controlled trial by September/October 2020. Dr. Schwartz, a brilliant physician and researcher, has been bullish on the prospect for the anti-parasitic drug targeting the novel coronavirus. The University of Kentucky Ivermectin study is now recruiting while the Johns Hopkins University Ivermectin study for whatever reason appears to still not be recruiting.

But the complete lack of intellectual interest in the Ivermectin movement, including reputable hospital protocol approved, off-label, controlled observational studies, raises suspicions of a set point of view.

That TrialSIte News has spoken with several physicians around the world in combination with outcomes from these carefully run observational studies starts to make the team wonder if there isn’t some institutional bias against this particular alternative approach. There appears to be a strange lack of any intellectual curiosity on the part of the “establishment” we refer to as a pharma-government-academia industrial complex or “complex.”

While intriguing movements such as Ivermectin with growing data points of success are completely ignored,  Remdesivir is blindly embraced: although the drug hasn’t really demonstrated success anywhere else (e.g. not for Ebola) and shown only some positive results, they certainly aren’t any better than the apparent Avigan (Favipiravir) results, which have led to approvals targeting COVID-19 in Russia, China and India. Bizarre given the U.S. government injected $138+ million into Favipiravir just eight years ago for the exact scenario that is now unfolding: a global pandemic.

Rather, the “complex” pushes on with remdesivir to the point that no one seemed to mind when standard protocol was ignored when just weeks before the clinical trial’s conclusion, the primary endpoint was literally changed so that the study could still be relevant. The primary outcome measure established in the remdesivir protocol was chucked last minute to save the faith. That bold and seemingly brazen move raised red flags among most critical thinkers. Perhaps that is how much power is now concentrated in “complex” circles.

The world of drug development, involving large biopharmaceutical companies, major academic medical centers, and regulators perhaps becomes too cozy. Over the coming months, TrialSite News will certainly look for chinks in the armor of the “complex.”

Lead Research/Investigator for Bangladesh Study & Jiaotong University Study

  • Abu Taiub Mohammed Mohiuddin Chowdhury, MD, First Affiliated Hospital Xi’an Jiaotong University
  • Mohammad Shahbaz, MBBS, MCPS, Upazila Health & Family Planning Officer’s (UHFPO) Office, Chakoria, Cox’s Bazar

Call to Action:  Consumers and professionals monitoring COVID-19 therapies should look carefully into any subtle, or not so subtle, institutional biases in favor of expensive, more complex treatments over basic, economical treatments that can treat much of the world.

Source- ResearchGate

end

Michael Every on today’s major events

(Michael Every)

Rabo: The “Roaring 20s” Are Pushing Us Deeper Toward 1929

 
WEDNESDAY, FEB 17, 2021 – 9:06

By Michael Every of Rabobank

The “Roaring 20s” continued to roar yesterday, pushing us deeper towards 1929 even if it is unclear exactly where we sit in the parallel to that unhappy decade. I have repeatedly said the 1920s are a ridiculous analogy for our 20s if that is meant as anything positive. We’ve all had fun dressing up as The Great Gatsby at an office party; and lots of people are having fun dressing up as The Great Gatsby in real life today; but very few dress up as hungry British workers during the General Strike (1926); or Soviet workers carrying out the first 5-year Plan (1928); or recall that The Great Gatsby was published in the same year as Mein Kampf (1925); or that Mussolini’s fascists had taken over Italy two years earlier (1923), and he won a thumping 2/3 general election victory in 1924. Kind of takes away the taste of the champagne a little, doesn’t it?

Regardless, up everything goes, including oil. The bitter freeze in Texas has seen several oil firms declare force majeure. And both freezing and exclamations towards the heavens are evident in the Middle East after a major diplomatic shift that sees the US “recalibrate” its relations with long-time ally Saudi Arabia through King Salman bin Abdulaziz rather than his powerful son, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. The White House says it will maintain defence ties with Riyadh, “even as we make clear areas where we have disagreements and where we have concerns.” As this happened, Iranian-backed Houthi rebels, now not terrorists in US eyes, made military gains in the north of Yemen and are close to seizing the oil-rich city of Marib. The White House wants to see an end to the destructive Yemen war the Saudis have been conducting: will it be one with pro-Iranian forces having a strong foothold closer to Saudi oil fields?

It’s no surprise that as oil prices surge, 10-year Treasury yields in the US jump higher in tandem. 10s were up 10bp yesterday to 1.31% and technically Piotr Matys argues that we are not far from a test back to 1.41%, which if we break through then opens a channel all the way back to 2%. On one level we can look at this and scream “Great Reflation!” Or we can look at a chart going back a year and realize that before Covid struck we were trading at nearly 2% – and that was a time when the market prevailing concerns were still about “secular stagnation” and the “new normal” and the lack of power of labor vs. capital. So even with an oil price squeeze and a sugar-high US fiscal stimulus of close to 10% of GDP, we are just getting back to where we were in the already-gloomy pre-virus norm.

Yes, general inflation almost certainly lies ahead of us now that commodities are the new dot com: but call me when general wage inflation is too. (I will be in my usual Gloomy Place.)

Yes, the political environment is changing rapidly too, as it did in the 1920s: but is it changing in a direction that markets will actually like? Do they seriously think any emergent populism is for *them*? If so, they greatly misunderstand political reality. The neoliberal status quo prevailing since the late 1970s has always been for markets: real populism of the fiscal-meets-monetary kind –if we ever get it– will surely be for the many, not the many asset-holders. Indeed, Markets would arguably NOT want to see the kind of policies that could make The Great Gatsby into The Great Reflation.

For example, one thing that will flatten their champagne is the Democrats unveiling a bill to end the “carried interest loophole” tax break, forcing Wall Street titans to pay income tax and not capital gains tax on what they earn. The American Investment Council, which represents the private-equity industry, of course argues it would be bad for the economy to enact such a bill during a pandemic (or after a pandemic; or before any possible future pandemic – that’s politics, folks). They state: “As workers and local economies continue to struggle…, this would be the worst time for Washington to reverse this responsible policy and punish long term investment that creates jobs and builds businesses in communities across America.” Let’s see if the bill passes or not:

If it does, then politics really is changing in the 20s; theoretically if that tax provides the government with funds to channel money back to consumers most likely to spend or, better, to invest in productive R&D, or in jobs and infrastructure for the long term, then logically perhaps The Great Reflation has legs – though Wall Street will hate it;

If it doesn’t, then Wall Street will keep pretending to be Leonardo DiCaprio, while the sell-off in US Treasuries will ultimately have a ceiling where we were before Covid began, and once the sugar high of this US fiscal package is fully priced in, they will start to drift down again. (For this and other reasons.)

Meanwhile, for now politics is still the same in some key ways: in Myanmar, the financial press report “Myanmar coup removes central bank chief, alarming global financiers”; the same press lauds the installation of former central-bank chief Draghi as Prime Minister of Italy. (Yes, of course one move was illegal and the other both legal and under democratic norms – but you get the underlying point.)

Yet politics *is* changing: and again not necessarily in a 1920’s direction Wall Street will ultimately enjoy. The Political Action Committee “Save America” backed by former President Trump has just released a very Trumpian statement which savages Republican Senate Minority Leader McConnell, including that his: “dedication to business as usual, status quo policies, together with his lack of political insight, wisdom, skill, and personality, has rapidly driven him from Majority Leader to Minority Leader, and it will only get worse….We know our America First agenda is a winner, not McConnell’s Beltway First agenda or Biden’s America Last….Mitch is a dour, sullen, and unsmiling political hack, and if Republican Senators are going to stay with him, they will not win again….Where necessary and appropriate, I will back primary rivals who espouse Making America Great Again and our policy of America First.”

Begun, The Republican Civil Wars have.

More champagne, anyone?

7. OIL ISSUES

Oil prices extend gains as Texas turmoil slashes USA crude production

(zerohedge)

end
 
Robert H to me on the numbers re Keystone Pipeline vs Train vs ship to move oil

KEYSTONE PIPELINE VS TRAIN VS SHIPS , TO MOVE OIL

Someone with a smart brain spent time putting some numbers together:

1 Train has 100 cars, 2 engines and weighs 27,240,000 LBS.

1 Train carries 3,000,000 gallons of oil.

1 train uses 55.5 gallons of diesel per mile.

It takes 119,000 gallons of diesel to go 2150 miles from Hardidsy, AB to Freeport, TX.

Keystone pipeline was to deliver 34,860,000 gallons of oil per day.

It would take 12 trains and 1,428,000 gallons of diesel to deliver that amount. PER DAY!

521,220,000 gallons of diesel per year.

The oil will still go to market with or without the pipeline. By stopping the pipeline billions of gallons of diesel will be wasted and pollute needlessly. Does that make you feel good?

Stop the Tar Sands all together? Then we must ship the oil from the overseas sandbox.

1 large oil tanker can haul 120,000,000 gallons of oil

1 boat takes 15 days to float across the Atlantic.

1 boat uses 63,000 gallons of fuel PER DAY, that is about 1 million gallons of the most polluting type fuel in the world PER TRIP.*(See below)

Or take 3.5 days of Keystone Pipeline to move the same amount of oil with a fraction of the pollution.

*In international waters ship emissions remains one of the least regulated parts of our global transportation system. The fuel used in ships is waste oil, basically what is left over after the crude oil refining process. It is the same as asphalt and is so thick that when cold it can be walked upon . It’s the cheapest and most polluting fuel available and the world’s 90,000 ships chew through an astonishing 7.29 million barrels of it each day, or more than 84% of all exported oil production from Saudi Arabia.

Shipping is by far the biggest transport polluter in the world. There are 760 million cars in the world today emitting approx 78,599 tons of Sulphur Oxides (SOx) annually. The world’s 90,000 vessels burn approx 370 million tons of fuel per year emitting 20 million tons of Sulphur Oxides. That equates to 260 times more Sulphur Oxides being emitted by ships than the worlds entire car fleet. One large ship alone can generate approx 5,200 tonnes of sulphur oxide pollution in a year, meaning that 15 of the largest ships now emit as much SOx as the worlds 760 million cars.

Eliminate all gas consuming cars and diesel vehicles?

Worldwide car gas consumption is 403,583,712,000 gallons a year. That’s billion.

Worldwide oil consumption is 1,500,000,000,000 gallons a year. That’s trillion.

It takes 2.15 gallons of oil to make 1 gallon of car gas and .6 gal of diesel.

So it takes 867,704,980,800 gallons of oil to run the worlds cars, most diesel vehilces for a year and some ships.

That leaves 632,295,019,200 gallons of oil for other uses.

Passenger vehicles are only a very small percentage of the problem. If emissions are the problem why not just capture them at the exhaust? Create an industry to clean exhaust instead of crushing and entire industry and building a complete untested, replacement industry?

So are we willing to dramatically increase mining to get all the minerals necessary to make all these batteries and electric motors. Mining is way worse for the environment than oil extraction.    Killing Keystone was glibly decided by emotional idiots without smart brains!       Destructive idiots are fooling Biden to destroy America , in order to boost their  own standing with Foreign paymasters. THAT DOESN’T WORK FOR REAL AMERICANS.

END

Oil Tumbles On Report Saudis Set To Raise Output By 1 Million Barrels

 
WEDNESDAY, FEB 17, 2021 – 9:31

One month ago, Saudi Arabia shocked the world when it announced that it would unilaterally cut 1 million barrels a day of crude production starting next month in an effort to boost prices. The plan worked – perhaps too well – and quickly pushed Brent crude well above $60, or the price level where as we reported over the weekend US shale production tends to aggressively return production and where OPEC traditionally tries to keep prices from surging too high.

As a result, on Sunday we noted that  “oil prices have reached a critical threshold where OPEC+ must decide whether to increase production, or risk losing market share again to U.S. shale producers.”

Fast forward just a few days later when “the decision” appears to have been made, because as WSJ reportsSaudi Arabia plans to increase oil output in the coming months, reversing January’s big production cut and adding as much as 1 million barrels of oil. 

… the kingdom plans to announce a reversal of those cuts when a coalition of oil producers meets next month, the advisers said, in light of the recent recovery in prices. The output rise won’t kick in until April, given the Saudis have already committed to stick to cuts through March.

Saudi Arabia’s move to reopen the spigots, while the rest of the group keeps them tight, comes as global demand for oil is expected to recover in the coming months. The recovery in oil prices has also been supported by an unexpected cold spell in the U.S., which has affected short-term crude production. Efforts by producers to reduce supply and rebalance oil markets, led by Saudi Arabia, have also shored up oil futures.

And so with WTI above $60, Saudi Arabia not only hopes to regain some of the lost market share, but to make it more problematic for US shale producers to jump in, who have been patiently waiting to pounce as soon as oil rises above $60.

That said, the WSJ warns that the plans could still be reversed if circumstances change – i.e., if oil prices tumble as traders price in the new supply – and the Saudis’ intention hasn’t yet been communicated to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.

“We are in a much better place than we were a year ago, but I must warn, once again, against complacency,” Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, the Saudi energy minister, said at a conference Wednesday. “The uncertainty is very high, and we have to be extremely cautious.”

Any boost in Saudi production could be problematic: as Newsquawk notes, crude prices at these elevated levels have prompted market chatter regarding OPEC+ politics and policy; it’s expected that hawkish producers, namely Russia, will exert some pressure on the group to ease output cuts, with recent commentary from Russia’s Novak also suggesting that the market is balanced.

However, Saudi will have to avoid a rift widening as the Kingdom itself is currently poised to reintroduce the 1mln bpd which was taken offline as a goodwill gesture in January. ING suggests “It is unlikely that the group would bring a little over 2.2mln BPD of supply back onto the market, aware that the market would baulk at such a decision”, but highlights that there is room for some sort of easing, contingent on how much output volume Saudi decides to return from its cut.

Whatever the outcome, the market is already pricing it in, and the report hammered both Brent and WTI, the former sliding by almost $2, while the WTI sliding from above $61 to below $60.

The good news for risk assets is that since oil is the key driver of breakevens, a drop in oil would remove some of the froth in both breakevens and 10Y yields…

…. giving stocks some breathing room as they scramble to catch up to the recent furious selloff in rates.

END

20 Dead Across US Amid Wild Weather As Texas Blackouts Plunge Up To 15 Million People Into Darkness

 
WEDNESDAY, FEB 17, 2021 – 9:35

Millions of Americans are without power Wednesday morning as winter storms and freezing temperatures batter the country. At least 20 people are dead due to weather-related incidents. As for Texas, the state with the most power outages, millions are still without power heading into the fourth day.

Bloomberg makes an interesting inquiry into the blackout’s actual size across Texas in recent days. Considering utility companies count outages by “customers” and not actual people – the real number could be north of 15 million people who have been plunged into darkness amid frigid temperatures. 

Texas power grid operator ERCOT, which manages 90% of the state’s electric load, serving more than 26 million customers, was forced to cut power to millions of customers as Arctic air spilled into the state, freezing wellheads that impeded the flow of natgas to power stations, triggering electric shortages as demand overwhelmed the grid.

The high concentration of natgas generation on ERCOT’s grid makes it vulnerable to power disruptions if fuel flow is disrupted.

What’s worse is that ERCOT is a separate grid than the rest of the country. This means ERCOT had limited abilities to pull power from other grids which was the resulting factor of why blackouts occurred.

The highest amount of power outages in the Lone Star state occurred on Tuesday when PowerOutage.us recorded 4.423 million customers were without power. Bloomberg makes the point that since a customer is not factored into the number of people in a household, the number of people left in the dark could be “at least 15 million people.” 

Data compiled by Bloomberg shows more than 26,000 megawatts of load have been wiped off the grid since Sunday. ERCOT warned customers over the weekend that rolling blackouts were needed to prevent a grid-wide collapse. For some context, a megawatt powers roughly 200 average homes in Texas.

 

Source: Bloomberg 

The blackout’s real size remains a mystery, but it’s undoubtedly one of the largest forced ones in the country’s history. In the last several days, Texas has been transformed into a third-world country, with rolling blacks, controlled power outages, cellular networks down, water treatment facilities offline, and millions of people freezing in their homes while the state’s economy grinds to a halt.

PowerOutage.us shows 2.965 million customers are still without power in the state on Wednesday morning. With millions of Americans in other states battered by winter weather and also suffering power outages, at least 75% of the Lower 48 states are covered by Snow. This week, at least 20 people have died from the wicked weather across the country. 

ERCOT wholesale electricity prices topped the grid’s price cap of $9,000 per megawatt-hour several times in the overnight session. Reminding readers, ERCOT prices are usually around $25/MWh.

The mystery remains – how many total people were thrown into darkness (and remain there) by ERCOT’s failures to weatherize its grid against a cold blast.

END

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

WHO issues alert to six African nations after recent Ebolaoutbreaks

(zerohedge)

WHO Issues ‘Alert’ To Six African Nations After Recent Ebola Outbreaks

 
TUESDAY, FEB 16, 2021 – 21:30

After the West African country of Guinea reported its first confirmed Ebola deaths since 2016, prompting the declaration of an “epidemic situation,” the World Health Organization (WHO) has alerted six countries to watch out for further spread of the disease, according to Reuters.

The news comes as Guinea declared a new Ebola outbreak on Sunday in the first resurgence of Ebola in West Africa since the 2013-2016 outbreak, while the Democratic Republic of Congo reported its first resurgence on Feb. 7. Liberia was also mentioned as among the countries that received an “alert”.

“We have already alerted the six countries around, including of course Sierra Leone and Liberia, and they are moving very fast to prepare and be ready and to look for any potential infection,” the WHO’s Margaret Harris told a Geneva briefing. -Reuters

The other countries that received a warning weren’t named.

According to the WHO’s Harris, health authorities had identified close to 300 Ebola contacts in the Congo outbreak and around 109 in Guinea, as doctors and nurses race to prevent the spread of disease.

Gene sequencing of Ebola samples from both Congo and Guinea is allowing scientists to learn more about the origins of the new outbreaks and identify the strains that are spreading, Harris added.

“We don’t know if this is down to Ebola persisting in the human population or if it’s simply moving again from the animal population but the genetic sequencing that’s ongoing will help with that information,” she said.

Given current global pandemic awareness combined with the fact that Ebola victims are easy to identify by the rapid onset of vomiting and, later, bleeding from orifices (as opposed to the significantly less deadly COVID’s asymptomatic spread), we are hopeful that these latest African outbreaks can be quickly contained.

end

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings WEDNESDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.2066 DOWN .0023 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS//CORONAVIRUS/PANDEMIC/TRUMP POSITIVE WITH VIRUS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /RED

USA/JAPAN YEN 106.02 UP 0.093 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.3876   DOWN   0.0012  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/

USA/CAN 1.2689 DOWN .0022 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  FRIDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL BY 24 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1718 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED 

//Hang Sang CLOSED 

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0,42%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED  

/SHANGHAI CLOSED  

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.42% 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 175.02  POINTS OR 0.58%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1792.00

silver:$27.16-

Early FRIDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 1.301% !!! UP 1 IN POINTS from TUEDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

The 30 yr bond yield 2.071 UP 0  IN BASIS POINTS from TUESSDAY night.

USA dollar index early FRIDAY morning: 93.81 DOWN 10 CENT(S) from  TUESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers WEDNESDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing  WEDNESDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.19% UP 2 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.10.%  UP 2   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.29%//UP 2 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:0.59 UP 2 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 20 points higher than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –37% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 0.96% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR WEDNESDAY

Closing currency crosses for WEDNESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.2035  DOWN     .0053 or 53 basis points

USA/Japan: 105.84 DOWN .280 OR YEN UP 28  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3875 DOWN .0048 POUND DOWN 48  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 15 basis points to 1.2720

xxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed    ON SHORE  (x).

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.4498  (YUAN DOWN)..

TURKISH LIRA:  6.99  EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.10%

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 3 IN basis points from TUESDAY at 1.280 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.043 DOWN 5 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 90.98 UP 47   CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for WEDNESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 22.67  0.39%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 41.73 POINTS OR .33%

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 0.84 POINTS 0.02%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 23.80 POINTS or 0.35%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 2.81 POINTS OR 0.01%

WTI Oil price; 37.40 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 39.75 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE FALLS:    78.15  THE CROSS HIGHER BY 0.90 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE LOWER BY 90 BASIS PTS)

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.54 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price f0r Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OILPRICE 4:30 PM :  61.20//

BRENT :  64.41

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 1.292..down 3 basis points…

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: .2.052 down 4 basis points..

EURO/USA 1.2043 ( DOWN 46   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:105.87 DOWN .243 (YEN UP 24 BASIS POINTS/..

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 90.53 UP 29 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.3861 DOWN 22  POINTS

the Turkish lira close: 6.99

the Russian rouble 73.75   DOWN 0.14 Roubles against the uSA dollar. (DOWN 14 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.2696 DOWN 16 BASIS pts

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.34%

The Dow closed UP 90.92 POINTS OR 0.41%

NASDAQ closed DOWN 4.49 POINTS OR 0.04%


VOLATILITY INDEX:  21.45 CLOSED DOWN .01

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 0.234%//libor dropping like a stone

USA trading today in Graph Form

Bitcoin Roars To Record Highs As Inflation Soars, Bond ‘Rout’ Stalls

 
WEDNESDAY, FEB 17, 2021 – 16:00

Crypto stole the headlines today as Bitcoin roared above $52,000…

Source: Bloomberg

Record-er and record-er!

Source: Bloomberg

…bang, zoom, to the moon, Alice!

Stocks were ugly early on amid surging retail sales and inflation data, rebounded into the FOMC Minutes but rolled over after that as the minutes showed “The staff assessed asset valuation pressures as elevated.”

The Dow (orange) managed gains on the day to a new record high (and is the only major index higher from Friday). Small Caps (red) and Nasdaq (blue) are the laggards with the S&P (green) scrambling back to unch on the week…

Energy stocks outperformed (again) as Tech lagged today…

Source: Bloomberg

The $800 pin on TSLA remains (with a big rebound today after an early puke)…

The bounce in TSLA was perfectly off its 50DMA…

VIX chopped around and despite some ugliness in stocks ended almost unch…

After three ugly days in bond land (and despite really ugly 20Y auction – with a 2.3bps tail!), the ‘rout’ ended (for now) today…

Source: Bloomberg

Real yields continue to surge (dragging down gold)…

“This means the economy is on the mend; so it’s not unhealthy that real yields are rising,” said Mark Holman, chief executive officer at TwentyFour Asset Management.

“But I caution that if real yields rise too quickly, then that’s a problem for all asset classes. It’s the speed of the change that could be a worry.”

The dollar extended yesterday’s gains, back to one week highs…

Source: Bloomberg

While Bitcoin was stealing the headlines, Ethereum push back up near record highs once again…

Source: Bloomberg

US crude production has crashed by 4 mm b/d, almost 40% of total production as Permian freezes but headlines that Saudi would increase production took the shine off a big day for oil prices, but that didn’t last long as the machines wanted to close WTI above $61 ahead of tonight’s delayed API inventory data…

Gold was clubbed like a baby seal as the dollar and bitcoin ripped, with spot breaking back below $1800 to its lowest since Nov 2020…

Source: Bloomberg

And while gold sank, silver managed gains – a very different picture to the gold chart over the same period…

Source: Bloomberg

Sending the Gold/Silver ratio back towards recent lows (lowest since 2014)…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, as stocks and bitcoin soar, the greatest news is that marginal COVID cases, hospitalizations, and deaths are all tumbling…

Source: Bloomberg

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 
 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA//Non farm payrolls

 
 

ii)Market data/USA

Core Retail Sales Surge At Record Pace Amid “Blockbuster” January Report

 
WEDNESDAY, FEB 17, 2021 – 8:38

After three months straight of disappointing declines in retail sales, analysts expected a rebound in January data (with BofA calling for a “blockbuster” report):

And BofA was right – in fact it was even more blockbustery!! Headline retail sales surged 5.3% MoM (against expectations of a 1.1% rise), liftiung the YoY rise to +7.4% – the highest since September 2011…

Source: Bloomberg

The surge erased all of the dip from the last three months…

Source: Bloomberg

Furniture, Electronics, and non-store retailers (e.g. Amazon) all saw sales surge…

This led to the biggest YoY rise in core retail sales (up 11.8%) in history…

Source: Bloomberg

Transitory, Mr. Powell?

end

Stocks Slammed As Producer Prices Soar By Record in January

 
WEDNESDAY, FEB 17, 2021 – 8:51

Along with soaring retail sales, US Producer Prices exploded higher in January. Against expectations of a 0.4% MoM rise, headline PPI rose 1.3% MoM. That is the biggest MoM jump in history

Source: Bloomberg

And for core PPI (up 2.0% YoY vs +1.1% exp), this is by far the biggest beat vs expectations in the history of forecasting PPI

Source: Bloomberg

Energy costs were the biggest driver on the goods side and Transportation costs soared on the services side.

As one macro guru noted, “PPI numbers are something else… This is consistent with multiple CEOs complaining of accelerating inflation for their inputs.

The surge in retail sales and inflation has sparked a “good news is bad news” effect, sending stock prices reeling

And extending the recent rise in yields…

The question is – what will Jay Powell do?

Nomura: 1.5% is the tipping  point…

Nomura: 1.3% Yields Are Fine But If They Hit 1.5%, Stocks Will Be Hammered

 
WEDNESDAY, FEB 17, 2021 – 11:35

How high will rates rise?

That’s the question on every trader’s lips these days, and although rates got a slight reprieve this morning after oil slumped on a WSJ report that Saudi Arabia is set to boost output by 1MMb/d, the 10 Year yield’s upward climb has yet to stop after topping 1.3% yesterday in a way that suggests that dip-buying by traditional longer-term investors has become less of a force.

So what happens if yields keep rising, and what is the critical value that would set off an equity selloff?

According to Nomura’s Masanari Takada, if the selloff accelerates from here and CTAs move to the short side in UST futures, the move would be become “essentially unstoppable, pushing the 10yr yield to above 1.5% and forcing US equities (the S&P 500) to adjust downward by 8% or more.”

Here are the highlights from his note published overnight:

The potential for CTAs to go further short UST futures, what it would take to put the 10yr yield above 1.5%, and when US equities might balk

  • Global macro hedge funds and CTAs seem likely to ease up on their selling of USTs at a 10yr yield in the 1.3%-1.4% range.
  • However, if it becomes the market consensus that the global economy is on its way to looking like it did prior to the US-China trade war, the 10yr UST yield could potentially keep climbing past 1.5%.
  • We would expect only a mild downward adjustment in US equities if the 10yr yield stays between 1.3% and 1.4%, but in a risk scenario in which the yield tops 1.5%, US equities could correct downward more sharply

Some more details, on these points starting with the key question: will the 10yr UST yield settle in the 1.3%-1.4% range, or keep climbing into the 1.5%-1.6% range?

According to Takada, going by the approaches taken by major classes of speculators and an analysis of historical patterns in cross-asset markets, the main scenario he envisions is one in which “selling fatigue” sets in with the 10yr yield in the 1.3%-1.4% range, and risk asset markets see no more than a mild impact. However, he cautions that he can “also envision a risk scenario in which CTAs’ move to the short side in UST futures (TY) becomes essentially unstoppable, pushing the 10yr yield to above 1.5% and forcing US equities (the S&P 500) to adjust downward by 8% or more.”

In the main scenario envisioned by the Nomura strategist, it is probable that the current rise in the 10yr UST yield (that is, the selling of USTs) is being led for the moment by latecomers who were slow to get into the reflation trade (including some longer-term investors and risk-parity funds). However, he notes that “more attention should be paid to the fact that the quick-moving speculative investors that sent yields rising in the first place now look inclined to take profits on their short UST positions.”Chief among them are global macro hedge funds. Macro funds that got out ahead of other investors in entering into reflation trades are now moving to cover their UST shorts, and they seem to not be interested in chasing the 10yr yield upward beyond 1.3%, according to Takada.

Trend-following CTAs are in a similar boat. There are precedents that suggest that in terms of the timing, CTAs and the like may wind down their selling of USTs any time now. As shown in Figure 2, CTAs’ current short TY positioning has been following an up-and- down rhythm quite similar to that observed in 2011-2013.

Also, in terms of the absolute level, CTAs’ net short position in TY is now looking less underdone than it had been relative to  macroeconomic fundamentals. Considering the present state of global economic momentum (as measured by the manufacturing PMI readings for the US and China), CTAs will probably have built up an adequate net short position once the 10yr UST yield is established in the 1.3%-1.4% range (see Figure 3).

However, Nomura is especially concerned about a potential risk scenario “in which CTAs’ selling of USTs picks up unexpectedly and becomes difficult to stop.” The reason for this is that outside of the UST market, some speculative investors are already making more trades designed to get an early bite out of an anticipated further recovery in the global economy. The CMX copper futures market is a perfect example. For example, CTAs’ net long position in copper futures is large enough that it effectively assumes that the global economy will get back to where it was before the US-China trade war.

Should this kind of trading observed in the commodity sector make its way into the UST market, CTAs may well revise up their assessment of what constitutes an adequate net short position in UST futures, as a way to balance their books. As such, Takada cautions that investors should be aware of the upside risk here, as the 10yr UST yield could be carried above 1.5% if it becomes the market consensus that the global economy is on its way back to its pre-trade war state.

What would that do to stocks? And more specifically, at what point would equity markets balk? According to Takada answers, a rise in yields of more than 20bp from the current level could exert a significant drag on the stock market.

As he further details, US equities would probably not see more than a mild downward adjustment if the 10yr UST yield stops rising while still in the 1.3%-1.4% range. The current rise in yields appears to be largely a byproduct of the portfolio rotation being executed by major classes of investors, including speculators (out of bonds and into stocks). As such, “this is not yet the time to be worried about the cause-effect relationship between rising bond yields and falling stock prices asserting itself.”

That said, the above-mentioned risk scenario (in which the 10yr UST yield climbs to above 1.5%) implies a rise in yields of 20bp or more over the current level, which would narrow the US equity yield gap and could thereby make US equities look comparatively overvalued. Nomura estimates that the watershed line for the yield gap has been in the 1.50%-1.75% range in the time since 2009. (The yield gap is currently 1.78%, calculated from an equity yield of 3.10% [based on trailing P/E] and a 10yr UST yield of 1.31%.) Historically, instances of the yield gap undercutting the watershed line that applied at the time have tended to be followed within three months by a pullback in sentiment off a peak and a sustained downward correction in the equity market.

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

Let’s compare Florida and California who took opposite approaches to the COVID

(zerohedge)

Florida, California Took Opposite Approaches To COVID… With Virtually Same Result

 
TUESDAY, FEB 16, 2021 – 17:09

How is it that California enacted draconian COVID lockdown measures, yet had nearly identical results to Florida – a state which went out of its way to avoid shackling residents with small business-killing prohibitions and mentally unhealthy isolation?

 

CA Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) (left), FL Gov. Ron DeSantis (R)

According to an analysis by the Daily Mail, California Governor Gavin Newsom’s (D) strict lockdowns resulted in 8,499 cases and 130 deaths per 100,000 residents, while Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’s hands-off approach – such as lifting an ordinance preventing people from operating businesses and restaurants – has resulted in 8,306 cases and 117 deaths per 100,000 residents.

Not only that, both states followed roughly the same trajectories for various COVID-19 metrics – with Florida looking better by virtually every measure when adjusted for population, and California looking like Orwellian overlords save for multiple judges which have tossed Newsom’s edicts because the state failed to provide a scientific basis for their decisions – and has concealed their ‘methodology’ that has driven business-killing decisions.

 

All illustrations via the Daily Mail

The hospitalizations cures of California (left) and Florida (right) bear a striking resemblance to each other with peaks seen around early-to-mid January and declines ever since. The dashed line represents the national seven-day average and the solid line represents California’s and Florida’s seven-day averages -Daily Mail

So were lockdowns necessary and did they work? The answer is a complicated one, but researchers say that they were beneficial in the early months due to our lack of knowledge about how COVID-19 spread and how to treat it.

Studies have shown that stay-at-home orders and restrictions saved numerous lives, but that they might be less useful now as more of the population gains natural immunity through infection or immunity via vaccination – but that social distancing and masks are still necessary to continue driving down case and death rates. -Daily Mail

Florida notably did not shut down schools, nor impose statewide mask mandates. As the Mail notes, however, the Sunshine State had historically higher COVID-19 rates until recently.

For example, in late July, Florida was reporting about 44 hospitalizations per 100,000 while California had about 22 per 100,000 before peaking again in late December and early January.

Worth noting when it comes to hospitalizations is age.

More than one-fifth, or 21 percent, of Florida’s population is at least 65 years old with at least 4.6 million out of the state’s 22 million identifying as senior citizens.

Comparatively, just 15 percent of California’s population is elderly with six million out of 40 million aged 65 and up.

This means more residents in Florida are susceptible to a virus that preys on the elderly-Daily Mail

On Sunday, DeSantis told Fox News Business that he focused on “lifting people up” during the pandmic, vs. lockdown states which are “putting people out of business.”

“There’s a whole bunch of things we’ve been doing for COVID, but at the same time, we’ve lifted our state up, we’ve saved our economy and I think we’re going to be first out of gate once we are able to put COVID behind the country,” he told host Maria Bartiromo.

Meanwhile, the Recall Newsom effort has gained enough signatures to trigger a special election.

Perhaps Governor Newsom and his crisis management team can discuss damage control over a nice indoor dinner at the French Laundry.

END
DAILY EXPOSE/
Just take a look at all of those adverse reactions to Pfizer’s and Moderna vaccines in the uK
(Daily Expose)

SHOCKING! – Official Data on Adverse Reactions to Covid Vaccines released

Listen Now
 
 
 

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The UK Government have released a report highlighting adverse reactions to both the Pfizer and Oxford / Astrazeneca vaccines that have occurred since the rollout began on the 8th December and it does not make for pleasant reading.

The report has collated data inputted up to the 24th January 2021 via the MHRA Yellow Card Scheme. At this point an estimated 5.4 million first doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine and 1.5 million doses of the Oxford University/AstraZeneca vaccine had been administered, and around 0.5 million second doses, mostly the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine, had been administered.

But as predicted, with the rise in vaccines administered came a rise in adverse reactions with 49,472 reported reactions to the Pfizer vaccine and 21,032 reactions to the Oxford / Astrazeneca vaccine. For both vaccines this equates to 1 in every 333 people suffering an adverse reaction. This rate could actually be higher as some cases may have not been reported to the Yellow Card Scheme.

The Daily Expose took a look through the report (which you can find here) and carried out an in depth review of reactions to the Pfizer vaccine and this is what we found –

Thanks to the Pfizer vaccine, which uses MRNA technology to instruct human cells to carry out “a certain task” 5 people are now blind and a further 31 have had their vision impaired. In total there have been 634 eye disorders reported so far. Imagine being confined to the same four walls for over a year and not being able to see family or friends. Then getting excited because you naively think an experimental “vaccine” is going to give you your life back and allow you to see them once more. But then leaving without the ability to ever see anything ever again.

 

Table taken from the Government Report

There have also been 21 cerebrovascular accidents thanks to the experimental Pfizer vaccine. A cerebrovascular accident is the sudden death of some brain cells due to lack of oxygen when the blood flow to the brain is impaired by blockage or rupture of an artery to the brain. A cerebrovascular accident is also referred to as a stroke.

We told you on the 4th December how the UK Government admitted it did not know if the Pfizer vaccine had an impact on fertility, which must have really convinced any aspiring wannabe parents to have the vaccine. But that admission also included comments on pregnancy which were as follows –

‘Pregnancy’
There are no or limited amount of data from the use of COVID-19 mRNA Vaccine BNT162b2.
Animal reproductive toxicity studies have not been completed. COVID-19 mRNA Vaccine
BNT162b2 is not recommended during pregnancy.

For women of childbearing age, pregnancy should be excluded before vaccination. In addition, women
of childbearing age should be advised to avoid pregnancy for at least 2 months after their second dose.

END
 
KRAFT HEINZ/CONAGRA
 
Kraft Heinz and Conagra will start to pass on soaring food costs to consumers
(zerohedge)

Kraft Heinz, Conagra Will Start Passing On Soaring Food Costs To Consumers

 
TUESDAY, FEB 16, 2021 – 18:50

Stagflation for the masses?

Cost of living is about to soar and all the average joe has to cover it is a $1400 check from Uncle Joe.

Late last year we noted that SocGen’s Albert Edwards warning readers that it could be time to start “panicking” about soaring food prices. 

Edwards’ research said, “keep a very close eye as to whether we see a repeat of the 2010/11 surge in food prices” because “on the 10th anniversary of the start of the Arab Spring, and with poverty having already been made much worse by the pandemic, another food price bubble could well be the straw to break the very angry camel’s back.”

While it’s not quite the spring of 2021 just yet, there are indications that soaring food costs are about to get passed on to consumers – this is terrible news for working-poor folks who are already suffering from housing and food insecurities.

According to Reuters, Kraft Heinz Co and Conagra Brands Inc warned Tuesday that price increases of wheat, sugar, and other commodities are becoming more expensive due to elevated demand.

Conagra executives told Reuters that increased prices for edible oils, pork and eggs, and packaging might force it to pass it along to consumers in the form of higher prices. 

Kraft Heinz CEO Miguel Patricio said inflation is everywhere in the agri complex.

He said inflation in “everything related to grains” is being observed, and it may result in price increases of some categories, including mac and cheese and mayonnaise, later this year. 

Is it time to worry about food inflation? 

According to Edwards, the answer is “yes.”

In December’s CPI print, food inflation was very notable on Jan. 13. The report said:

The food at home index increased 3.9 percent over the past 12 months. All six major grocery store food group indexes increased over the period. The largest increase was the meats, poultry, fish, and eggs index which rose 4.6 percent as the beef index increased 5.3 percent. The smallest increases were for the cereals and bakery products and the fruits and vegetables indexes, which both increased 3.2 percent over the last 12 months. The index for food away from home rose 3.9 percent over the last year. The index for limited service meals rose 6.0 percent and the index for full service meals rose 3.0 percent over the span.

Also, the Food and Agriculture Organization’s Food Price Index rose for a seventh consecutive month in December, led by dairy products and vegetable oils.

So, as the surge in global food prices remains anything but transitory, major food producers are set to pass on those food costs for consumers at a time when millions of them can barely afford rent and or feed their families. 

Of course, while food prices are surging around the world, the well-managed signals in official inflation data remains relatively low… enabling central planners to keep the spigots wide open (no matter what the consequences).

As we noted previously, while central bankers walk around with their heads in the clouds, a team at C+R Research has surveyed more than 2,000 American consumers to find out how they have “adjusted” to these higher prices, which have come amid a surge in unemployment. Their findings aren’t all that surprising: 85% of consumers said that their budgets had been impacted by having to pay more for groceries. Milk, eggs and meat are the top staples that Americans are paying more for.

And given the headlines today, things are about to get even worse.

To sum up, prepare for major food companies to start jacking up food prices. We assume this will not sit well in the stomachs of already-broke consumers. 

end

National Guard to stay in DC until the fall. I guess Biden is not secure with his phony win

(Watson/SummitNews)

National Guard To Stay In DC “Through Fall 2021”, Why?!

 
TUESDAY, FEB 16, 2021 – 22:30

Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,

A leaked email suggests that there are plans to keep the National Guard in Washington DC beyond the previously discussed deadline of March 12th, and throughout the Summer AND Fall.

report by FOX 5 cites an internal email seen by reporters that reveals The National Security Council is asking the Department of Defense to engage Capitol Police on planning for post-March 12th support.

The report notes that there will be a meeting for agencies to discuss the matter next Wednesday, February 17th.

The email was written by Robert Salesses who is covering the duties of Assistant Secretary of Defense for Homeland Defense and Global Security.

It states:

If it’s not possible to sustain at the current level with NG personnel, we need to establish the number of NG personnel (DCNG and out-of-state) we can sustain for an extended period – at least through Fall 2021 – and understand additional options for providing DoD support, to include use of reserve personnel, as well as active component.”

While troops were expected to stay in DC for the duration of the impeachment sideshowowing to “security concerns,” it now appears that they will remain even longer.

The Pentagon has confirmed that there are still around 6000 National Guard troops in DC. While there have been indications that the number will be reduced to 5000 within a month, there have been no other indications of when troops will be stood down.

There is also no indication of when the huge razor wire topped security fencing will be removed from around Capitol Hill.

The Guard have been given virtually no information about what they are required to do, with one soldier previously describing the situation as “very unusual for any military mission.”

As we reported last month, thousands of the troops were forced to sleep OUTSIDE and in a parking Garage near the Capitol building after a Democratic lawmaker complained that ONE guardsmen was not wearing a face mask.

The estimated cost of keeping the security measures is so far close to $500 million.

Without a legitimate reason to keep troops in DC any longer, Americans can only assume that the Biden administration and the Democrats feel their grip on power needs protecting by a permanent military presence.

end

Who Is The US President? Kamala Harris, Not Biden Is Talking With Foreign Leaders

 
WEDNESDAY, FEB 17, 2021 – 8:45

Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,

While Joe Biden plays Mario Kart and gets an early night, Kamala Harris is talking to world leaders, prompting the question who really is the President of the United States now?

The New York Post reports that Harris spoke at length with French President Emmanuel Macron this week.

The Vice President’s office released a statement noting that the two “agreed on the need for close bilateral and multilateral cooperation to address COVID-19, climate change, and support democracy at home and around the world.”

“They also discussed numerous regional challenges, including those in the Middle East and Africa, and the need to confront them together,” the statement added.

Macron also tweeted his regards to Harris over the discussion:

This comes after Harris spoke with Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau earlier in the month.

White House press secretary Jen Psaki also announced on Tuesday that it is unlikely Biden will meet with any foreign leaders for months.

Is this normal? The President isn’t speaking to any foreign leaders, but the VP is.

The short answer is no, it isn’t normal.

The NY Post notes that former Vice President Mike Pence “occasionally spoke directly by phone with foreign leaders, but that role generally was performed by former President Donald Trump, especially last year.”

“A review of press notices from Pence’s final year in office reveals no readouts of direct calls with the leaders of foreign nations,” the Post added.

So, when he realises ‘where the hell’ he is, what is Biden actually doing?

end
First town hall meeting: a total disaster
(zerohedge)

“Where The Hell Are We?” – Biden’s CNN Townhall Disaster Ignored By Mainstream Media

 
WEDNESDAY, FEB 17, 2021 – 9:51

In his first such public appearance since the campaign, President Biden joined CNN’s Anderson Cooper on stage last night in Milwaukee in a town-hall-style discussion. It did not go well… but you’d never know that if you only read the mainstream media.

The president faced no pushback from Mr.Cooper for failing to denounce China’s Uyghur genocide calling it a “cultural norm”, or claims that black or brown ‘folks’ don’t know how to use the internet, that military is fueling the “growth of white supremacy, or the fact that he wakes up every morning wondering “where the hell are we?”

As Summit News’  Steve Watson details below, the question, after watching this, should be “this guy is in charge now?”

When Anderson Cooper asked the hard hitting probing question ‘What is it like to live in the White House?’ Biden responded by stating “I wake up every morning, look at Jill, and say ‘where the hell are we?’”

Surely this will be comforting for Americans to hear.

Elsewhere during the car crash exchange, Biden claimed that former military and former police officers are fueling the “growth of white supremacy,” while claiming President Trump refused to condemn it:

Later, Biden went on to claim that people of color don’t know how to use the internet:

He also found himself in a bind when he uttered a ‘racist’ fact:

Answers on a post card as to what the hell this comment means:

When it comes to racism in communist China, however, that’s just a “cultural norm”:

“If you know anything about Chinese history, it has always been the time when China has been victimized by the outer world is when they haven’t been unified at home,” said Biden, going on to say that President Xi Jinping is aiming to achieve a “tightly controlled China.”

“I’m not gonna speak out against what he’s doing in Hong Kong, what he’s doing with the Uyghurs in the western mountains of China…culturally there are different norms that each country and their leaders are expected to follow,” he added.

Turning to crime

Immigration

Turning to the ongoing coronavirus crisis and the slow uptake of the vaccine in the US, Biden predictably blamed Trump for ‘wasting time’ with the vaccine rollout (despite the fact that Trump’s administration defied all odds to get the vaccine distributed in record time):

Biden also blatantly lied and claimed there was no vaccine when he took office:

Does he really believe Americans can’t remember as far back as 30 days ago?

When asked when he sees lockdowns and mask mandates ending, Biden said he ‘hopes’ it’ll be over in A YEAR:

What a wreck.

As LibertyNation’s Mark Angelides points out, it appears by the lack of coverage of this disaster that America’s Fourth Estate has entered a new era of wilful blindness:

When statements from the president are downplayed or ignored by the legacy media, it begs the question of who can be trusted to deliver the news. There is an ongoing censorship war between social media giants and smaller boutique outlets that do not follow the party line. This situation has gone far beyond which service is most likely to deliver factual information and has descended to the point where the sins of omission are not only ubiquitous but also destructive.

News has a duty to be informative, regardless of whether that information is personally damaging to the White House occupant

end

.

Conservative Radio Legend Rush Limbaugh Dead At 70

Tyler Durden's Photo

 

BY TYLER DURDEN
WEDNESDAY, FEB 17, 2021 – 12:20

Conservative radio icon Rush Limbaugh has died at the age of 70 following a battle with lung cancer, his wife Kathryn announced on his radio show.

Limbaugh was diagnosed with stave IV lung cancer in January 2020. Days later, he was awarded the Presidential Medal of Freedom at the State of the Union Address – America’s highest civilian honor – which former First Lady Melania Trump presented to him.

“Rush Limbaugh: Thank you for your decades of tireless devotion to our country,” said Trump during the address.

As Fox News notes:

Limbaugh is considered one of the most influential media figures in American history and has played a consequential role in conservative politics since “The Rush Limbaugh Show” began in 1988. Perched behind his Golden EIB (Excellence in Broadcasting) Microphone, Limbaugh spent over three decades as arguably both the most beloved and polarizing person in American media.

The program that began 33 years ago on national syndication with only 56 radio stations grew to be the most listened-to radio show in the United States, airing on more than 600 stations, according to the show’s website. Up to 27 million people tuned in on a weekly basis and Limbaugh has lovingly referred to his passionate fan base as “Dittoheads,” as they would often say “ditto” when agreeing with the iconic radio host.

Limbaugh thanked his listeners and supporters during his final broadcast of 2020, where he revealed that he had outlived his prognosis.

“I wasn’t expecting to be alive today,” Limbaugh admitted. “I wasn’t expected to make it to October, and then to November, and then to December. And yet, here I am, and today, got some problems, but I’m feeling pretty good today.”

During the 2020 presidential election, Limbaugh hosted then-President Trump on his show for an unprecedented two-hour “radio rally” during which Trump used the “golden microphone” to answer questions from Rush and his listeners, according to the report.

Born in Cape Girardeau, MO on Jan. 12, 1951, Limbaugh started his career in radio in 1967 at the age of 16 as a “helper,” eventually graduating to a disk jockey where he worked during high school at a small station roughly 100 miles south of St. Louis.

Read the rest of the report here.

end

Dallas Texas and surrounding areas a disaster zone with mega pipes bursting. They have no found and no water.

(zerohedge)

Is Texas Facing A Humanitarian Crisis?

 
WEDNESDAY, FEB 17, 2021 – 12:15

Up to 15 million Texans remain without heat and electricity as temperatures across the state are well below freezing. Another round of winter weather is battering parts of the state Wednesday morning, as many Texans have been without electricity since Sunday are desperately scrambling to find shelters. Weather-related deaths have already been reported as one of the nation’s wealthiest states can barely supply electricity to its residents. And some of those residents have written to us to share their painful realities…

…my house is now resembling a refugee camp. yeah these are all my friends but crazy cause they all have young kids

hence i’m escaping the chaos…

what’s insane is that big swathes of population in surrounding areas are without power and *water supply*

… bottled water flying off shelves & stores bout to run out.

… so much for Green New Deal shit… all our turbines and solar don’t work now in freeze, LOL

i live in an area behind a major hospital so i’m thinking that’s why my grid has been up and running this whole time. 

The unprecedented polar vortex split, dumping Arctic air down to the Gulf of Mexico, resulted in frozen wellheads that impeded the flow of natgas to power stations, triggering electric shortages as demand overwhelmed the grid. Considering ERCOT, which manages 90% of the state’s electric load, has a high percentage of electrical generation produced via natgas, power has yet to be restored to millions of folks.

The cascading effect of blackouts and controlled power outages has resulted in some critical infrastructure such as cellular networks and water treatment plants going offline.

As we attempt to show below, the speed at which one of the nation’s wealthiest states transforms into a third-world country is simply stunning.

Jared Tennant, a drone pilot in central Texas, captured stunning images of how downtown Austin has been lit up during the power grid collapse while surrounding and more impoverished communities on the outskirts of town have had their power cut.

Tennant “showed images of downtown Austin Tuesday night. Municipal buildings, empty office buildings, and even empty parking garages fully lit throughout the night,” said PJ Media.

Office buildings in downtown Austin were lit up during the blackouts.

Austin’s convention center had power while neighborhoods across I-35 were dark.

Downtown offices were lit while tens of thousands of thousands of people in the surrounding community froze.

One reader wrote that central Texas looks like a “refugee situation of sorts,” offering some anecdotal accounts of what he’s seeing on the ground which is nothing short of a disaster in the making.

  • Central Texas looking like a refugee situation of sorts… suburbs with power have homes with 10 to 15 or 20 people piled into living rooms with sleeping bags.
  • Increasingly whole zip codes are being hit with not just power outage, but water system going down too either thru frozen or electrically damaged processing facilities or key pipes bursting.
  • Anyone without power/water (now going on 2 to 3 days) is begging any friends or family in area still with power to take them in.
  • Often multiple families are camped out in living rooms of those who still have power.
  • Families are dropping off young children in residences & with neighbors that still have heat.
  • Basically whole neighborhoods on other side of highway with no power are “moving in” to neighbors’ homes on other side where power still exists.
  • I’m getting phone calls from friends and elderly people in the community asking desperately for firewood. People are now running out of firewood and the couple grocery stores actually open for a few hours a day are constantly out.
  • People are braving the iced-over roads to go looking for anyone with firewood.
  • Any home that still has water is filling up jugs & bathtubs in expectation of water supply cut at any moment.
  • The water situation is getting alarming.. especially many elderly now trapped in homes with no heat OR WATER.
  • Local stores (the 2 or 3 that actually open) are limiting customers to 2 gallons of water each–it’s flying off the shelves
  • Individuals with 4-wheel drive and/or jeeps have been seen picking up stranded strangers on side of road… often people are having to hike miles to an open corner store to raid the shelves for any canned food/or still available items.
  • As vehicles get stuck and/or become inoperable due to extreme freeze… people have been seen hiking out of suburban neighborhoods to reach “civilization” (or any area still with power and water)
  • People are also now living in their work offices and/or teachers bringing their family to school classroom to live if school/office still has power/water.
  • In many cases schools or some churches are not yet officially “warming centers”–yet people are basically squatting–entering any public place/room they can find that’s warm.
  • For most part there’s almost zero snow plow/de-icing equipment particularly in mid- to small-sized towns and rural areas… last night’s layer of ice storm means many people now trapped in their powerless/waterless homes even if they want to leave for a warming center
  • There’s no recourse, no answers… Oncor will not answer calls or give answers for days running. Civic services not responding… also local police departments are angrily demanding answers from the large energy companies
  • Growing number of carbon monoxide poisonings in area and the state…people are lighting charcoal grills indoors, also running vehicles in garages

Another Texas resident exclaimed:

So I honestly don’t really know if there’s anyway to mitigate this at all, or if there is any point trying to kick and scream and raise awareness about this since it seems like such an unstoppable avalanche, but with all of the pipes bursting as well as water treatment plants now going offline – next week when this shit thaws out, all of that sewage is going to coat the entire fucking state.

Which is gross, but the worst part of it is that fucking Covid can transmit through sewage, not all that well and it probably needs to be aerosolized, but with apartment buildings and the fact it will be EVERYWHERE and everything else… Texas is about to become a science experiment in herd immunity.

When those pipes start to thaw I bet they’ll be gushing and spurting too – how long is it gonna take to seal everything off, there’s just no way. 

I hope I’m wrong, but I think Texas might be on its way to becoming a Third World country.

… and there’s more.

Houston Chronicle’s Brett Coomer reports dozens of people lined up to fill their propane tanks – many of whom have been without power for days.

More Texans are standing in freezing weather waiting for propane fillups.

People are running out of food. Huge lines were seen at a grocery store in Houston’s suburb on Wednesday.

More people are starving in Texas; a drone captures a massive line at another grocery store.

Lines at gas stations.

“The line to get into HEB an hour before they open. I expect it to wrap around the building within the hour. Why? No power and most stores are closed. Why? Texas insulated and privatized the grid and failed to winterize it. Time to expropriate. It starts here!,” one Twitter user said.

Users are reporting grocery stores are now placing limits on food to avoid shortages.

“This is the line outside to get to the lines inside the only grocery store our roads are safe to get to in Canyon Lake Texas. We have been out of power and water since last Sunday it is now Wednesday. Friends brought us firewood. It’s 26 degrees outside,” another Twitter user said.

… and while people rush to stores for propane and food, others are facing some grim realities at home with busted pipes.

@leeblake70#Texas #icestorm

 

♬ original sound – savitheskater

Dallas resident records ice frozen fan.

More busted pipes – some homes in Texas are not winterized.

The Hilton hotel in downtown Forth Worth is flooded after pipes broke.

Water gushing from an apartment deck.

“Burst pipe has been running for 9 hours at an apartment in Austin,” said one user.

This certainly doesn’t look good.

Homes across Texas have been devastated by bursting pipes all day.

*This story is developing as the power grid collapse morphs into a humanitarian crisis that is far from over. 

en8

 

iv) Swamp commentaries

Trump Declares War On Mitch McConnell, Calls Him “A Dour, Sullen, And Unsmiling Political Hack”

 
TUESDAY, FEB 16, 2021 – 18:30

Donald Trump has some choice words for Senate Mitch McConnell (R-KY), after the Senate Minority Leader voted to acquit the former president, only to go on a tirade on the Senate floor (followed by a Wall Street Journal interview) in which he blamed Trump for the Jan. 6 incursion into the US Capitol by Trump supporters.

“They did this because they had been fed wild falsehoods by the most powerful man on Earth—because he was angry he’d lost an election,” said McConnell. “Former President Trump’s actions preceding the riot were a disgraceful dereliction of duty.”

McConnell also blames Trump for the GOP losing control of the Senate in January after two GOP candidates lost their races after failing to support Trump’s multiple challenges to the 2020 US election. “We all know why that occurred,” McConnell told the Journal on Monday.

Trump is having none of it, writing in a scathing Tuesday letter that “Mitch is a dour, sullen, and unsmiling political hack, and if Republican Senators are going to stay with him, they will not win again.”

McConnell’s dedication to business as usual, status quo policies, together with his lack of political insight, wisdom, skill, and personality, has rapidly driven him from Majority Leader to Minority Leader, and it will only get worse.”

He also suggested that the McConnell family’s “substantial Chinese holdings” give him “no credibility on China.”

The former president also had some thoughts on Georgia, which he said was a “complete election disaster,” in which “McConnell did nothing, and will never do what needs to be done to secure a fair and just electoral system into the future. He doesn’t have what it takes, he never did, and never will.

Trump’s only regret? That he backed McConnell after the Kentucky Senator “begged” for his support – without which Trump says McConnell would have lost. “He went from one point down to 20 points up, and won,” said the former president, adding “How quickly he forgets.

Read below:

Statement by Donald J. Trump, 45th President of the United States of America

The Republican Party can never again be respected or strong with political “leaders” like Sen. Mitch McConnell at its helm. McConnell’s dedication to business as usual, status quo policies, together with his lack of political insight, wisdom, skill, and personality, has rapidly driven him from Majority Leader to Minority Leader, and it will only get worse. The Democrats and Chuck from Majority Leader to Minority Leader, and it will only get worse. The Democrats and Chuck Schumer play McConnell like a fiddle—they’ve never had it so good—and they want to keep it that way! We know our America First agenda is a winner, not McConnell’s Beltway First agenda or Biden’s America Last.

In 2020, I received the most votes of any sitting President in history, almost 75,000,000. Every incumbent House Republican won for the first time in decades, and we flipped 15 seats, almost costing Nancy Pelosi her job. Republicans won majorities in at least 59 of the 98 partisan legislative chambers, and the Democrats failed to flip a single legislative chamber from red to blue. And in “Mitch’s Senate,” over the last two election cycles, I single-handedly saved at least 12 Senate seats, more than eight in the 2020 cycle alone—and then came the Georgia disaster, where we should have won both U.S. Senate seats, but McConnell matched the Democrat offer of $2,000 stimulus checks with $600. How does that work? It became the Democrats’ principal advertisement, and a big winner for them it was. McConnell then put himself, one of the most unpopular politicians in the United States, into the advertisements. Many Republicans in Georgia voted Democrat, or just didn’t vote, because of their anguish at their inept Governor, Brian Kemp, Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, and the Republican Party, for not doing its job on Election Integrity during the 2020 Presidential race.

It was a complete election disaster in Georgia, and certain other swing states. McConnell did nothing, and will never do what needs to be done in order to secure a fair and just electoral system into the future. He doesn’t have what it takes, never did, and never will.

My only regret is that McConnell “begged” for my strong support and endorsement before the great people of Kentucky in the 2020 election, and I gave it to him. He went from one point down to 20 points up, and won. How quickly he forgets. Without my endorsement, McConnell would have lost, and lost badly. Now, his numbers are lower than ever before, he is destroying the Republican side of the Senate, and in so doing, seriously hurting our Country.

Likewise, McConnell has no credibility on China because of his family’s substantial Chinese business holdings. He does nothing on this tremendous economic and military threat.

Mitch is a dour, sullen, and unsmiling political hack, and if Republican Senators are going to stay with him, they will not win again. He will never do what needs to be done, or what is right for our Country. Where necessary and appropriate, I will back primary rivals who espouse Making America Great Again and our policy of America First. We want brilliant, strong, thoughtful, and compassionate leadership.

Prior to the pandemic, we produced the greatest economy and jobs numbers in the history of our Country, and likewise, our economic recovery after Covid was the best in the world. We cut taxes and regulations, rebuilt our military, took care of our Vets, became energy independent, built the wall and stopped the massive inflow of illegals into our Country, and so much more. And now, illegals are pouring in, pipelines are being stopped, taxes will be going up, and we will no longer be energy independent.

This is a big moment for our country, and we cannot let it pass by using third rate “leaders” to dictate our future!

end

‘Woke’ Teachers Want Shakespeare Canceled: “This Is About White Supremacy And Colonization”

 
TUESDAY, FEB 16, 2021 – 20:30

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

“Too Woke, Or Not Too Woke?”

While the House managers were quoting Shakespeare in their case against President Donald Trump last week, it appears that the Bard may soon be less known than “Poor Yorick” who we once knew so well.

There is a growing campaign by teachers to drop Shakespeare and other Western literature from classes. One group, #DisruptTexts, insists “This is about White supremacy and colonization.”

Lorena German, National Council of Teachers of English Anti-Racism Committee chair and a co-founder of the Disrupt Texts forum, insisted “everything about the fact that he was a man of his time is problematic about his plays. We cannot teach Shakespeare responsibly and not disrupt the ways people are characterized and developed.”

We previously discussed how the portrait of William Shakespeare was removed at the University of Pennsylvania’s English Department as a statement for greater racial sensitivity and diversity. Students are increasingly being deprived of such foundational classics as “Romeo and Juliet,” “Macbeth,” “King Lear” or Richard III. These are works that are not only masterpieces but shaped generations of later works and continue to be referenced in modern writing.  Yet, this is a movement that has been building since 1987 when Jesse Jackson led Stanford undergraduates chanting, “Hey, ho, Western Citv has got to go!”

Amanda McGregor, a Minnesota-based librarian wrote in the January issue of School library journal  that “Shakespeare’s work is full of problematic and outdated ideas, lots of misogyny, racism, homophobia, class discrimination, anti-Semitism, misogyny”

German insisted that Shakespeare “is not ‘universal’ in a way that other authors are not. He is not more ‘timeless’ than anyone else.”

Some teachers advocating replacing Shakespeare with such works as “Hunger Games.”

Shakespeare could have seen his coming when he wrote in As You Like It that “All the world’s a stage, and all the men and women merely players. They have their exits and their entrances; And one man in his time plays many parts.”

However, the exiting of Shakespeare will come at a terrible cost for our students. While Shakespeare appears the new rallying cry for woke teachers, he is “a man more sinned against than sinning.” 

If he is stripped away from our reading lists, our students will be the poorer for it.

end

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

We’ve been warning for the past several weeks that inflation is escalating, despite Fed officials’ denials.

Fed officials cannot acknowledge that inflation has taken root or that stocks are bubbling because that pearl of truth would pressure the Fed to stop the juice.  Then, stocks, the economy and Joe Biden would start circling the drain.

Fed’s Daly Says the Pressures on Inflation are Downward – BBG [You can’t make this up!]
Fed’s Daly: Not Time to Worry about Inflation Risks Right Now – BBG
[SF Fed Prez] Daly: Fed Knows How to Combat Inflation Should It Arrive – BBG
Daly: Excessive Inflation Worries Now Will Cost Economy Jobs – BBG

Fed’s Bullard Says Bitcoin at $50,000 Not A Threat to Dollar, Sees No Asset Bubbles Anywhere: It’s Just Normal Investing, trying to get your head around what those companies are really worth.”…
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/feds-bullard-says-bitcoin-50000-not-threat-dollar-sees-no-asset-bubbles-anywhere-its-just

[Natural] Gas at One U.S. Hub Is Trading at $999. Last Week It Was at $4
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-16/gas-at-one-u-s-hub-is-trading-at-999-last-week-it-was-at-4

Reports say 1/3 of US energy production has been idled due to the severely cold weather.  Half of the wind turbines in Texas are frozen.
The higher interest rates on Tuesday induced a dollar rally, which pushed gold 1.5% lower.

@cfromhertz: Why we buy the close & sell the open:  https://twitter.com/cfromhertz/status/1361526452966092800
Frozen wind turbines contribute to power blackouts across Texas, at least 4 million without power

Officials said natural gas and coal generators also were freezing.
https://justthenews.com/events/frozen-wind-turbines-contribute-power-blackouts-texas

[Biden Press Sec] Psaki On What Biden Is Doing to Help Small Businesses: ‘He Nominated a Woman to Lead’ the SBA http://dlvr.it/RsrwNR
Trump trashes Mitch McConnell in searing new statement  [DJT has only just begun!]
“The Republican Party can never again be respected or strong with political “leaders” like Sen. Mitch McConnell at its helm… We know our America First agenda is a winner, not McConnell’s Beltway First agenda or Biden’s America Last… My only regret is that McConnell “begged” for my strong support and endorsement before the great people of Kentucky in the 2020 election, and I gave it to him… McConnell has no credibility on China because of his family’s substantial Chinese business holdings… Mitch is a dour, sullen, and unsmiling political hack, and if Republican Senators are going to stay with him, they will not win again. He will never do what needs to be done, or what is right for our Country…”  https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-trashes-mitch-mcconnell-in-searing-new-statement

@thebradfordfile: Trump calling out Mitch McConnell for being a fraud is why America loves Trump.

Steve Bannon believed Donald Trump had early-stage dementia and started covert campaign to use 25th Amendment to remove him from office, veteran 60 Minutes producer claims

  • Rosen said on the Skullduggery podcast Tuesday that Bannon believed he could inherit Trump’s supporters and win the White House if Trump had to resign
  • ‘The fact that Bannon tried to build support to have Trump removed, after having served as his most senior adviser in the White House, was astonishing,’ he wrote…

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9267077/Bannon-believed-Trump-early-stage-dementia-started-25th-Amendment-campaign.html

Bannon Blasts Fake News CBS Producer for Spreading ‘Total Lie’
https://pandemic.warroom.org/2021/02/16/bannon-blasts-fake-news-cbs-producer-for-spreading-total-lie/

We don’t know if Bannon is truthful.  But this is more proof of DJT’s abysmal judgment of people.

‘Not to Be Shown to The Public’: Leaked Footage of Bidens at White House Is Alarming
Harris behaving like acting Prescient on phone ‘State’ calls  [The clip has been pulled from the Net!]
     Video footage has emerged from a recent People Magazine interview that shows a clearly frustrated Jill Biden sitting awkwardly with Joe Biden in the White House in what is labeled as footage from People, where Joe is paused for a long time as if he is searching in his mind for some information…
https://djhjmedia.com/kari/not-to-be-shown-to-the-public-leaked-footage-of-bidens-at-white-house-is-alarming/

Here is a link to the troubling clip of an addled Biden with Jill.  Bidenites claim the clip was heavily edited.  The video has been removed.  https://twitter.com/RaheemKassam/status/1361675891286429698

Kamala Harris Is Now Making Joe Biden’s Head of State Calls for Him.
The White House published a readout yesterday entitled “Readout of Vice President Kamala Harris Call with President Emmanuel Macron of France.”… Harris also recently spoke with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau… https://thenationalpulse.com/news/kamala-harris-is-now-taking-joe-bidens-head-of-state-calls-for-him/

@johncardillo: @CNN actually ran a story on how Biden puts a log in the WH fireplace without anyone’s help then goes to bed really early.

@paulsperry_: Fulton County Elections Board just fired elections chief Rick Barron. “Issues cited were his handling of the 2020 elections & firing of whistleblowers Bridget Thorne & Suzi Voyles, who testified in Georgia fraud hearings,” http://VOTERGA.ORG’s Garland Favorito said.
https://www.oann.com/fulton-county-ga-elections-board-director-fired/

Well that is all for today

I will see you THURSDAY night.

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