FEB 19//ATTEMPTED RAID FOILED: GOLD UP $2.00 TO $1778.65//SILVER UP 15 CENTS TO $27.07//GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX: SLIGHTLY OVER 112 TONNES//11 MILLION OZ OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY//CORONAVIRUS UPDATE//VACCINE UPDATES//USA 10 YR AND 30 YR YIELDS BREAK NORTHBOUND!//UK SUPREME COURT RULES AGAINST UBER AND THUS THEIR DRIVERS ARE EMPLOYEES: THIS IS DISASTROUS FOR THE COMPANY//IRAN SNUBS BIDEN/BIDEN FINALLY ACCEPTS CALL FROM ISRAEL’S NETANYAHU//GOP DEMAND AN INVESTIGATION INTO CUOMTO NURSING HOME DEATHS//HOUSE RELEASES ITS 1.9 TRILLION DOLLAR STIMULUS BILL//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT///

GOLD:$1778.65 UP  $2.00   The quote is London spot price

Silver:$27.22. UP  $0.15   London spot price ( cash market)

your data…

 

Closing access prices:  London spot

i)Gold : $1782.30  LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

ii)SILVER:  $27.21//LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

Editorial of The New York Sun | February 1, 2021

end

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COMEX DATA

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

receiving today  638/871

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: FEBRUARY 2021 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,773.400000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 02/18/2021 DELIVERY DATE: 02/22/2021
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
072 C GOLDMAN 333 2
118 H MACQUARIE FUT 1
323 H HSBC 1
332 H STANDARD CHARTE 43
363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 538
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 22
555 H BNP PARIBAS SEC 2
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 40
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 58
661 C JP MORGAN 593
661 H JP MORGAN 45
686 C STONEX FINANCIA 6
690 C ABN AMRO 1
709 H BARCLAYS 30
880 C CITIGROUP 6
905 C ADM 21
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 871 871
MONTH TO DATE: 33,956

ISSUED: 0

GOLDMAN SACHS STOPPED 0 CONTRACTS.

 
 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  FEB. CONTRACT: 871 NOTICE(S) FOR 87,100 OZ  (2.709 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  33,956 NOTICES FOR 3,395,600 OZ  (105.62 tonnes) 

SILVER//FEB CONTRACT

 

25 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 125,000  OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month: 1988 for 9,940,000  oz

BITCOIN MORNING QUOTE  $52,756  UP 806 dollars

BITCOIN AFTERNOON QUOTE.:$55,519  UP 3,569 DOLLARS .

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

:

GLD AND SLV INVENTORIES:

WITH GOLD UP $2.00  AND NO PHYSICAL TO BE FOUND ANYWHERE:

WITH ALL REFINER CLOSED//MEXICO ORDERING ALL MINES SHUT:   WHERE ARE THEY GETTING THE “PHYSICAL?

WHAT ON EARTH IS GOING ON WITH OUR CRIMINAL GLD/SLV VEHICLES

NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//

/

GLD: 1,132.89 TONNES OF GOLD//

WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: AND WITH NO SILVER AROUND

NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//

INVENTORY RESTS AT:

SLV: 621.007  MILLION OZ./

xxxxx

GLD closing price//NYSE 167.02 UP 70 CENTS OR .42%

SLV closing price NYSE 25.25 UP 19 CENTS OR .42%

 
 

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

THE COMEX OI IN SILVER FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 2,000 CONTRACTS FROM 182,495 DOWN TO 180,495, AND FURTHER FROM OUR NEW RECORD OF 244,710, (FEB 25/2020. THE LOSS IN OI OCCURRED WITH OUR  $0.22 LOSS IN SILVER PRICINGAT THE COMEX. IT SEEMS THAT THE LOSS IN COMEX OI IS  DUE TO SOME BANKER AND ALGO  SHORT COVERING//SOME REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING..  COUPLED AGAINST A STRONG EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. WE ALSO HAD ZERO/MINOR LONG LIQUIDATION, AND A ZERO INCREASE FOR SILVER OUNCES STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR FEB. WE HAD A SMALL NET LOSS IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 972 CONTRACTS  (SEE CALCULATIONS BELOW).

WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A STRONG  NUMBER OF  COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE:  1028,, AS WE HAD THE FOLLOWING ISSUANCE:  MARCH  1028 MAY: 0 AND ZERO ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE 1028 CONTRACTS. THE BANKERS ARE NOW BEING BITTEN BY THOSE SERIAL FORWARDS (EFP’S CIRCULATING IN LONDON)AS THEY ARE NOW BEING EXERCISED AND COMING BACK TO NEW YORK FOR REDEMPTION OF METAL.  THE COST TO SERVICE THESE SERIAL FORWARDS IS HIGH TO OUR BANKERS  BUT THEY HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO ISSUE A FEW OF THEM!

HISTORY OF SILVER OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR THE PAST 26 MONTHS.

 

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

7.32     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

2.630     MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOV.

20.970   MILLION OZ  FINAL STANDING IN DEC

5.075     MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JAN

1.480    MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN FEB

23.005  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAR

4.660  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR APRIL

45.220 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAY

2.205  MILLION OF FINAL STANDING FOR JUNE

86.470 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JULY.

6.475 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN AUGUST

55.400 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN SEPT

8.900 MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT.

3.950 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN NOV.

46.685 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR DEC.

6.890 MILLION FINAL STANDING FOR JAN 2021

11.645  MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING FOR FEB 2021,

THURSDAY,AGAIN OUR CROOKS USED COPIOUS PAPER IN ORDER TO LIQUIDATE SILVER’S PRICE…AND THEY WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.22) ).. AND, OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE ANY SILVER LONGS AS WE HAD A CONSIDERABLE LOSS IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES (972 CONTRACTS). NO DOUBT THE TOTAL LOSS IN OI IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES WERE DUE TO i) HUGE BANKER/ALGO SHORT COVERING//REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING.  WE ALSO HAD  ii)  A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS 2) A ZERO INCREASE  IN SILVER OZ  STANDING  FOR FEB, iii) STRONG COMEX OI LOSS AND iv) ZERO/MINOR LONG LIQUIDATION. YOU CAN BET THE FARM THAT OUR BANKERS  ARE DESPERATE TO LIQUIDATE THEIR HUGE SHORT POSITIONS IN SILVER..

WE ARE BEGINNING TO WITNESS A LACK OF EXCHANGE FOR GOLD PHYSICALS UNDERWRITTEN DUE TO PREMIUMS STARTING TO REAPPEAR IN THE FUTURE PRICE OF GOLD VS LONDON SPOT. THE COST TO THE BANKERS IS JUST TOO GREAT TO ENGAGE IN THESE VEHICLES ONCE THIS OCCURS.

We have now switched to SILVER for our spreaders!!

 

FOR DETAILS ON THE SPREADING EXERCISE HERE IS A BRIEF OUTLINE:

 

SPREADING OPERATIONS/NOW SWITCHING TO SILVER  (WE SWITCH OVER TO GOLD ON NOV  1)

SPREADING OPERATION FOR OUR NEWCOMERS:

FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS:

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED IN SILVER  AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF MAR.

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEW, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE SPREADERS AND THE CRIMINAL ELEMENT BEHIND IT:

 HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

 

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR GOLD..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR GOLD.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

.

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO SILVER AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB. HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAR FOR SILVER:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF FEB. BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (MAR), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

 
 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

FEB

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY /FOR MONTH OF FEB:

35,318 CONTRACTS (FOR 14 TRADING DAY(S) TOTAL 35,318 CONTRACTS) OR 176.590 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 2523 CONTRACTS OR 12.613 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF FEB: 176.590 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON.

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF FEB: 176.590. MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON.

JAN EFP ACCUMULATION FINAL:  113.735 MILLION OZ

FEB EFP ACCUMULATION FOR FAR:   176.590 MILLION OZ (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

RESULT: WE HAD A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 2,000, DESPITE OUR  $0.22 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ///THURSDAY.THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 1028 CONTRACTS WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS.

TODAY WE LOST A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 972 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES (WITH OUR $0.22 FALL IN PRICE)//

THE TALLY//EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

i.e 1028 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH A CONSIDERABLE SIZED DECREASE OF 2000 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND HAPPENED WITH OUR $0.22 FALL IN PRICE OF SILVER/AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $27.07 // THURSDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY. 

FOR THE NEW FEB.  DELIVERY MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 25 NOTICE(S) FOR  125,000 OZ OF SILVER.

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018. AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.70//TODAY’S RECORD OF 244,705 WAS SET WITH A PRICE OF: 18.91 (FEB 25/2020)

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 

GOLD

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 2294 CONTRACTS TO 497,175 AND FURTHER FROM  OUR NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI OCCURRED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE  OF $2.60///COMEX GOLD TRADING// THURSDAY.WE PROBABLY HAD HUGE BANKER/ALGO SHORT COVERING  ACCOMPANYING OUR SMALL EXCHANGE FOR  PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG GAIN IN GOLD STANDING  AT THE COMEX TO 112.78 TONNES FOR FEBRUARY..AS OUR BANKERS ORCHESTRATE ANOTHER QUEUE JUMP SEARCHING FOR METAL OVER HERE I AM PRETTY SURE THAT OUR BANKERS ARE RUNNING OUT OF DODGE..THEY MUST COVER THEIR SHORTFALL QUICKLY... YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR SMALL GAIN IN PRICE OF $2.60!!!.

WE HAD A VOLUME OF 0    4 -GC CONTRACTS//OPEN INTEREST  15//

WE HAD A SMALL LOSS  OF 879 CONTRACTS  (2.734 TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES..

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A SMALL SIZED 1415 CONTRACTS:

CONTRACT . FEB:0,  APRIL:  1415 AND JUNE:  0  ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO//TOTAL: 1415.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 497,175. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EXCHANGE DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 879 CONTRACTS: 2294 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 1415 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI LOSS OF 879 CONTRACTS OR 2.734 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:

WE HAD A SMALL SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (1415) ACCOMPANYING THE SMALL SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI  (2294 OI): TOTAL LOSS IN THE TWO EXCHANGES:  879 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1 ) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AS OUR BANKERS ARE RUNNING FROM DODGE AND CONSIDERABLE ALGO SHORT COVERING ,2.)HUMONGOUS INCREASE STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR THE FRONT FEB. MONTH RISING TO 112.78 TONNES3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION /// ;4) SMALL COMEX OI LOSS  AND 5) SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL  ...ALL OF THIS WAS HAPPENED WITH OUR SMALL GAIN IN GOLD PRICE TRADING//THURSDAY//$2.60!!.

WE ARE BEGINNING TO WITNESS A LACK OF EXCHANGE FOR GOLD PHYSICALS UNDERWRITTEN DUE TO PREMIUMS STARTING TO REAPPEAR IN THE FUTURE PRICE OF GOLD VS LONDON SPOT. THE COST TO THE BANKERS IS JUST TOO GREAT TO ENGAGE IN THESE VEHICLES ONCE THIS OCCURS.

 
 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2020 INCLUDING TODAY

FEB

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF FEB : 41,956, CONTRACTS OR4,195,600 oz OR 130.50 TONNES (14 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2996 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 14 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 130.50 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2019, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 130.50/3550 x 100% TONNES =3.66% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO DATE:
 
 
JANUARY: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)
 
FEB  :  130.50 TONNES SO FAR ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..THUS EFP’S IN SILVER INCREASING AND GOLD EFP’S DECREASING.

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 2,000 CONTRACTS FROM 182,495 DOWN TO 180,495 AND FURTHER FROM OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 3/4 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

THE CONSIDERABLE SIZED LOSS IN OI SILVER COMEX WAS PRIMARILY DUE TO 1) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING//ALGO SHORT COVERING//REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING , 2) A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (SEE BELOW), 3) A ZERO INCREASE IN  STANDING FOR SILVER  AT THE COMEX FOR FEB., AND 4) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION 

EFP ISSUANCE 1028 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 MARCH:  1028 ; MAY: 0 AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1028 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI LOSS OF 2,000 CONTRACTS TO THE 1028 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A CONSIDERABLE SIZED LOSS OF 972 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 4.86 MILLION  OZ, OCCURRED WITH OUR $0.22 FALL IN PRICE///

 

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL..THE EVIDENCE IS CLEAR: HUGE AMOUNTS OF PHYSICAL STANDING FOR BOTH  SILVER AND GOLD .

 

(report Harvey)

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)FRIDAY MORNING/ THURSDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 20.81 PTS OR .57%   //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 49.40 PTS OR .16%    /The Nikkei closed DOWN 218.17 POINTS OR 0.72%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 1.28%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP AT 6.4874 /Oil UP TO 59.55 dollars per barrel for WTI and 63.20 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.4874. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.4479 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS //TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED//CORONAVIRUS/PANDEMIC/TRUMP TESTS POSITIVE FOR COVID 19  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 
 

COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL  BY A SMALL SIZED 2294 CONTRACTS TO 497,175 MOVING FURTHER FROM THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020).  AND THIS SMALL COMEX DECREASE OCCURRED DESPITE WITH OUR SMALL GAIN OF $2.60 IN GOLD PRICING /THURSDAY’S COMEX TRADING/)… WE ALSO HAD A SMALL EFP ISSUANCE (1415 CONTRACTS).   WE  ALSO PROBABLY HAD AGAIN  1)  HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING//ALGO SHORT COVERING,  2)  ZERO//MINOR  LONG LIQUIDATION  AND 3)  LARGE INCREASE STANDING AT THE GOLD  COMEX//FEB. DELIVERY MONTH(112.78 TONNES) (SEE BELOW) …  AS WE ENGINEERED A TINY SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 321 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE LATELY WITNESSED THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL….. AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS.

(SEE BELOW)

WE  HAD 0    4 -GC VOLUME//open interest REMAINS AT   15

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JAN..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A SMALL SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 1415 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  ; FEB// ’21  0 AND APRIL:  1415, JUNE:  0 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1415  CONTRACTS.

YOU WILL FIND THAT WHEN WE HAVE A GOOD PREMIUM IN THE FUTURES/SPOT, THEN THE NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS DECLINE IN NUMBERS.  THE COST IS JUST TOO MUCH FOR THEM TO ISSUE. TODAY THAT PREMIUM WAS SMALL AND THUS A LITTLE MORE THAN USUAL OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WERE ISSUED.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOSTTHE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A SMALL 879 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 1415 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE LOST A SMALL SIZED  COMEX OI  OF 2294 CONTRACTS.  WE HAVE A HUGE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR FEB (112.78 TONNES) FOLLOWING OUR STRONG LEVEL OF JAN 2021 GOLD CONTRACTS STANDING FOR DELIVERY. ((6.500 TONNES).  IF YOU INCLUDE  NOVEMBER’S HUGE 34.7 TONNES, AND DEC. 93.589 OUR COMEX IS OFFICIALLY UNDER ASSAULT.

THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT FELL $2.60)., AND WERE   UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING ANY LONGS  AS THE TOTAL LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES REGISTERED A TINY 0.998 TONNES, ACCOMPANYING OUR HUGE GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR FEB (112.78 TONNES)..I  STRONGLY BELIEVE THAT OUR BANKER FRIENDS ARE GETTING QUITE NERVOUS.  THE SMALL GAIN IN COMEX OI IS DUE TO BANKER SHORT COVERING IN A BIG WAY.  THEY ARE LOOKING OVER THEIR SHOULDERS AND WITNESSING MASSIVE SILVER SHORTAGES THAT CANNOT BE COVERED. THEY ARE TRYING TO FLEE IN HASTE “FROM DODGE”. 

NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES :: 321 CONTRACTS OR  32100 OZ OR  0.998  TONNES

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT COMMODITY FUTURES OPEN INTEREST SHOULD APPROXIMATE 3% OF TOTAL PRODUCTION.  IN GOLD THE WORLD PRODUCES AROUND 3500 TONNES PER YEAR BUT ONLY 2200 TONNES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE WEST (THUS EXCLUDING RUSSIA, CHINA ETC..WHO KEEP 100% OF THEIR PRODUCTION)

 

THUS IN GOLD WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:  497,175 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS X 100 OZ PER CONTRACT = 49.72 MILLION OZ/32,150 OZ PER TONNE =  1546 TONNES

THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST REPRESENTS 1546/2200 OR 70.29% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF GOLD.

 
 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 251,009 contracts// volume fair/raid/

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  236,087 contracts//  volume: fair/raid //most of our traders have left for London

 

FEB 19 /2021

 
INITIAL STANDINGS FOR FEB COMEX GOLD
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
 
50,634.086 OZ
 
SCOTIA
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz

32,118.849

OZ

 

BRINKS

999 KILOBARS

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
No of oz served (contracts) today
871  notice(s)
87,100 OZ
(2.709 TONNES
 
 
 
No of oz to be served (notices)
2302 contracts
230,200 oz)
 
7.160 TONNES
 
 
 
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
33,956 notices
 
3,956,000 OZ
105.62 TONNES
 
 
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz
 

We had 1 deposit into the dealer

i) Into Brinks:  32,118.849 oz  (999 kilobars)
 
 
 
 
 
total deposit:  32,118.849  oz
 
 
 

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had nil deposits to the customer account

we had  1 withdrawals from  the customer account

i) Out of Scotia:  50.634.086 oz
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

We had 2  kilobar transactions

ADJUSTMENTS  2:  dealer to customer

 

Brinks:  31,925.943 oz  (993 kilobars)

Malca:  11,118.548  oz  

The front month of FEB registered a total of 3173 CONTRACTS FOR A GAIN OF 291 CONTRACTS.  WE

HAD 254 CONTRACTS FILED ON THURSDAY SO WE GAINED A MONSTROUS 545 CONTRACTS OR 54,500 OZ REFUSED TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS AND AS SUCH NEGATED A FIAT BONUS.  IT IS NOW OUR BANKERS TURN TO FIND BADLY NEEDED PHYSICAL. QUEUE JUMPING NOW BECOMES THE NORM AT THE GOLD COMEX AS BANKERS ARE IN URGENT NEED OF PHYSICAL METAL.

 

MARCH LOST 4 contracts to stand at 2409

APRIL LOST 3344 contracts to stand at 382,173

We had 871 notice(s) filed today for 87100 oz

FOR THE FEB 2021 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and  0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 871  contract(s) of which 45  notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 593 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 2 notices received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)
 

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the FEB /2021. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (33,956) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  (FEB 3173 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today (871 x 100 oz per contract) equals 3,571,300 OZ OR 111.082 TONNESthe number of ounces standing in this  active month of FEB

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the FEB/55911 contract month:

No of notices filed so far (33,956 x 100 oz  PLUS  3173 OI) for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (871} x 100 oz which equals 3,625,800 oz standing OR 112.782 TONNES in this active delivery month of FEBRUARY. This is a HUGE amount  standing for GOLD IN  FEB

WE GAINED A POWERFUL 545 CONTRACTS OR 54,500 OZ REFUSED TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS AS NOW OUR BANKER FRIENDS WILL TRY THEIR LUCK TO FIND METAL ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND.  

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:  

461,317.475 oz NOW PLEDGED  SEPT 15.2020/HSBC  14.34 TONNES

137,613.934 PLEDGED  APRIL 3/2020: SCOTIA:3.7708 TONNES

290,795.495 oz  JPM  9.04 TONNES

1,048,677.37 oz pledged June 12/2020 Brinks/32.618 TONNES

94,500.934 oz Pledged August 21/regular account 2.93 tonnes JPMORGAN

6,308.08 oz International Delaware:  .196 tonnes

192.06 oz Malca

182,867.893 Manfra

total pledged gold:  2,222,274.087 oz                                     69.12 tonnes

 

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES…. WE HAVE 544.04 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS i.e. 112.78 tonnes

CALCULATION OF REGISTERED THAT CAN BE SETTLED UPON:

total registered or dealer  19,713,277.102 oz or 613.18 tonne
 
 
total weight of pledged:  2,222,274.087 oz or 69.12 tonnes
 
 
thus:
 
registered gold that can be used to settle upon: 17,491,003.0  (544,04 tonnes)
 
 
 
true registered gold  (total registered – pledged tonnes  17,491,003.0 (544.04 tonnes)
 
 
 
total eligible gold: 19,704,821.186 , oz (612.90 tonnes)
 
 

total registered, pledged  and eligible (customer) gold  39,418,098.288 oz 1,226.06 tonnes (INCLUDES 4 GC GOLD)

total 4 GC gold:   126.34 tonnes

total gold net of 4 GC:  1099.72 tonnes

end

I have compiled  data with respect to registered (or dealer) gold taken on first day notice for each of the past 24 months

The data begins on first day notice for the May month taken on the last day of July 2018. and it continues to present day.

I then took, how many deliveries were recorded by the CME for each and every month.  I also included for reference the price of gold on first day notice.

The first graph is a logarithmic  graph and the second graph, linear.

You can see the huge explosion of registered gold at the comex along with deliveries.

 
 
THE DATA AND GRAPHS:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
END

 

 
 
FEB 19/2021

And now for the wild silver comex results

 
 

And now for the wild silver comex results

INITIAL STANDING FOR SILVER/FEB

FEB. SILVER COMEX CONTRACT MONTH//INITIAL STANDING

Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 
1202601.820 oz
 
 
CNT
 
jpm
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
 
 
nil
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
No of oz served today (contracts)
25
 
CONTRACT(S)
(125,000 OZ)
 
No of oz to be served (notices)
341 contracts
 1,705,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  1988 contracts

 

9,940,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
 
We had 0 deposits into the dealer:
 
 
 
 

total dealer deposits: nil        oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had 0 deposits into the customer account (ELIGIBLE ACCOUNT)

 
 
 

JPMorgan now has 196.952 million oz of  total silver inventory or 49.64% of all official comex silver. (196.952 million/396.729 million

total customer deposits today: nil    oz

we had 2 withdrawals:

 
 
i) out of CNT  617,897.050 oz
ii) Out of JPMorgan: 584,704.770 oz
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

total withdrawals 1,202,601.820   oz

We had 2 adjustments: all dealer to customer

i) CNT  2,231,219.106 oz

ii)Scotia: 29,538.05 oz

 

Total dealer(registered) silver: 145.630million oz

total registered and eligible silver:  396.729 million oz

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

FEBRUARY saw a LOSS of 98 contracts to stand at 366. We had 98 notices filed on THURSDAY. So we GAINED 0 contracts or an additional NIL oz will stand for delivery on this side of the pond as they refused to  morph into London based forwards and as such they negated a fiat bonus. 

MARCH LOST 8101 contracts DOWN to 67,884. April gained another 57 contracts to stand at 476

We have 5 trading days before first day notice Feb 26.2021. We await anxiously to see how many raptors will take delivery and move silver out of the comex. We still have not witnessed a huge migration from the March contract over to May.

The total number of notices filed today for FEB 2021. contract month is represented by 25 contract(s) FOR 125,000 oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in FEB we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at  1988 x 5,000 oz = 9,940,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of FEB (366) and the number of notices served upon today 25 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the FEB standings for silver for the FEB/2021 contract month: 1988 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of FEB(366)- number of notices served upon today (25) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the Jan contract month .equals 11,645,000 oz. ..VERY STRONG FOR A NON ACTIVE  FEB MONTH.

We gained 0 contracts or an additional NIL ADDITIONAL oz will stand for delivery over here as they refused to  morph into London based forwards..

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME 119,679 CONTRACTS // volume very very  good/raid

FOR YESTERDAY  108,757  ,CONFIRMED VOLUME//very good/raid 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV  FALLS TO -0.44% ((FEB 19/2021)

2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV FALLS TO -1.13% to NAV:   (FEB 19/2021 )

Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/0.44%(FEB 19/2021)

(courtesy Sprott/GATA

3. SPROTT CEF .A   FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 19.41 TRADING 18.84//NEGATIVE 2.95

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/(this vehicle is a fraud as there is no gold behind them!)

FEB 19/WITH GOLD UP $2.00 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1132.89 TONNES

FEB 18//WITH GOLD UP $2.60 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.79 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1132.89 TONNES

FEB 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $27.35 TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.54 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1136.68 TONNES

FEB 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $23.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORYRESTS AT 1142.20 TONNES

FEB 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.38 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1142.20 TONNES

FEB 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $15.35 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/I: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1146.60 TONNES

FEB 10/WITH GOLD UP $5.30 TODAY: ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.09 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1148.34 TONNES

FEB 9/WITH GOLD UP $4.00 TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.08 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1152.43 TONNES.

FEB 8/WITH GOLD UP $20.80 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.33 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1156.51 TONNES

FEB 5/WITH GOLD UP $20.10 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1159.84 TONNES

FEB 4/WITH GOLD DOWN $42.05 TODAY: STRANGE: HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.34 TONNES ADDED INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1159.84 TONNES

FEB 3/WITH GOLD DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1157.50 TONNES

FEB 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $27.60 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD// A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.63 TONNES FROM THE GLD//.INVENTORY RESTS AT 1157.50 TONNES

FEB 1/WITH GOLD UP $12.45 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.5 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1160.13 TONNES

JAN 29/WITH GOLD UP $9.65 TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A WITHDRAWAL  OF 4.37 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1164.80 TONNES

JAN 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.90 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.71 TONNES LEAVES THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1169.17 TONNES

JANUARY 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.85 TODAY; A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF .87 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS 1172.38 TONNES

JAN 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.15 TODAY:NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1173.25 TONNES

JAN 25.WITH GOLD DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1173.25 TONNES

JAN 22/WITH GOLD DOWN (9.50 TODAY:A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A WITHDRAWAL OF .88 TONNES FROM THE GLD//NVENTORY RESTS AT 1173.25 TONNES

JAN 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.40 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1174.13 TONNES

JAN 20/WITH GOLD UP $25.20 TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.5 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1174.13 TONNES

JAN 19/WITH GOLD UP $10.90 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 16.63 TONNES INTO GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1177.63 TONNES

JAN 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $22.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//: A WITHDRAWAL OF 10.21 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1161.00 TONNES

JAN 14.WITH GOLD DOWN $2.75 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 10.50 TONNES FROM THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1171.21 TONNES

JAN 13/WITH GOLD UP $11.65 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1181.71 TONNES

JAN 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.70  TODAY;A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD// A WITHDRAWAL OF .400 TONNES FROM THE GLD..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1181.71 TONNES

JAN 11/WITH GOLD UP $14.30 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1182.11 TONNES

JAN 8//WITH GOLD DOWN $75.70 : A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.57 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1182.11 TONNES

JAN 7/WITH GOLD UP $5.70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1186.78 TONNES

JAN 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $44.25 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1186.78 TONNES

JAN 5/WITH GOLD UP $10.05 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 17.21 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1187.95 TONNES

JAN 4/WITH GOLD UP $49.70 TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD; A DEPOSIT OF 0.88 TONNES INTO THE GLD/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1170.74 TONNES

DEC 31/WITH GOLD UP $1.45 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1169.86 TONNES

DEC//30//WITH GOLD UP $13.30 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1169.86 TONNES

DEC.29//WITH GOLD UP $1.65 TODAY: A DEPOSIT OF  2.53 TONNES  CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1169.86 TONNES.

DEC 28WITH GOLD DOWN $3.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1167.53 TONNES

DEC 24/WITH GOLD UP $6.15 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1167.53 TONNES

DEC.23/WITH GOLD UP $7.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.33 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1167.53 TONNES

DEC 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPSOIT OF 2.04 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1169.86 TONNES

DEC 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.60 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1167.82 TONNES

DEC 18/WITH GOLD DOWN 90 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1167.82 TONNES

DEC 17 WITH GOLD UP $39.35 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.33 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1167.82 TONNES

DEC 16/WITH GOLD UP $2.55 TODAY A HUGE  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES FORM THE GLD..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1170.15 TONNES

DEC 15/ WITH GOLD UP $23.75 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.67 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1171.32 TONNES//

DEC 14//WITH GOLD DOWN $10.45 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.79 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1175.99 TONNES

DEC 11/WITH GOLD UP $5.70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1179.78 TONNES

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Inventory rests tonight at:

 

FEB 19 / GLD INVENTORY 1132.89 tonnes

LAST;  1003 TRADING DAYS:   +199.17 TONNES HAVE BEEN ADDED THE GLD

LAST 903 TRADING DAYS// +  367.42TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY

end

Now the SLV Inventory/(this vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them!)

FEB 19//WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 621.007 MILLION OZ//

FEB 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 22 CENTS TODAY : TWO HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.858 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV AN ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL 5.758 MILLION OZ// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 621.007 MILLION OZ//

FEB 17/WITH SILVER UP  1 CENT TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A DEPOSIT OF 83,000 OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 628.623 MILLION OZ//

FEB 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.044 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 628.530 MILLION OZ//

FEB 12/WITH SILVER UP 31 CENTS//A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.312 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 630.574 MILLION OZ.

FEB 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.858 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 634.986 MILLION OZ//

FEB 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 44 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 636.844 MILLION OZ//

FEB 9/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.19 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 17.882 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 636.844 MILLION OZ//

FEB 8/WITH SILVER UP $0.53 TODAY: A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 4.451 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 654.726 MILLION OZ//

FEB 5/WITH SILVER UP 70 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 659.278 MILLION OZ

FEB 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 0.54 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 10.079 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 659.278 MILLION OZ//

FEB 3/WITH SILVER UP 38 CENTS TODAY: A MIND NUMBING: 56.784 MILION OZ “DEPOSIT” INTO THE SLV at 3 pm AND A WITHDRAWAL OF 7.99 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV AT 5 PM//WITH THESE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 669.357 MILLION OZ//

FEB2//WITH SILVER DOWN  $2.81 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: AN UNBELEIVABLE DEPOSIT OF 18.627 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 620.563 MILLION OZ//

FEB 1/WITH SILVER UP $2.56 TODAY: A FAIRY TALE DEPOSIT OF 34.419 MILLION OZ INTO  SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 601.936 MILLION OZ//

JAN 29/WITH SILVER UP 58 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.366 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 567.517 MILLION OZ//

JAN 28/WITH SILVER UP 44 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.393 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 571.883 MILLION OZ/

JAN 27/ WITH SILVER DOWN 10CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.: A XXXWITHDRAWAL OF 3.022 MILLION OZ OF IMAGINARY SILVER// INVENTORY RESTS AT 573.277 MILLION OZ/

JAN 26/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 576.299 MILLION OZ///

JAN 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 2.044 MILLION XXXXOZ INTO THE SLV// INVENTORY RESTS AT 576.299 MILLION OZ./.

 
 
XXXXXXXXXXXXXX
 
 
 
 
 
FEB 19/2021

SLV INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT

 


 


 


621.007 MILLION OZ

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

Your weekend reading material:  Alasdair Macleod 

The future of money is always gold and not Bitcoin

(Alsdair Macleod)

Alasdair Macleod: The future of money is gold

 
 Section: 

 

By Alasdair Macleod
GoldMoney, St. Helier, Jersey, Channel Islands
Thursday, February 18, 2021

This article explains why the successor money to failing fiat is gold, not cryptocurrencies.

Cryptos can act as stores of value only as long as fiat exists.

I describe how a world transacting with monetary gold and properly constituted gold substitutes works. It explains how and why unbacked bank credit expansion, which in natural Roman law was ruled to be fraudulent 1,800 years ago, can and should be eliminated in a post-fiat world, thereby ending destructive credit cycles

Gold exchange standards, which are comprised of gold-backed money administered by the state, worked extremely well when properly implemented, and it is the siren songs of inflationism that are at the root of the current crisis. If the transition from worthless fiat back to gold standards is handled properly, an initial recovery to fully functioning economies need not take more than a year or so.

The pressure on future governments to reject inflationism in favor of free markets and sound money should not be underestimated. It is not rocket science.

All we need are politicians in whose interests it is to see the light and have the determination to take their electorates with them. It will require them to hand back to individuals the responsibility for their own actions, enabling the requisite cuts in government responsibilities and expenditures to be made.

That child of fiat money, the welfare state and all the government actions to protect it, will have to end, with the exception of the absolute basics.

The politicians to facilitate these changes do exist, though their voices are not heard. But the moment fiat collapses, we have good reason to believe they will re-emerge from under the misguided consensus they had been elected to deliver. It will be in their clear interest to do so, and monetary collapse giving birth to civil disruption can be avoided. …

… For the remainder of the analysis:

https://www.goldmoney.com/research/goldmoney-insights/the-future-of-mone…

end

I highlighted this to you in yesterday’s commentary but it is worth repeating as Chris Powell points out the glaring misdeads of journalism with respect to gold.

(Mike Bird/Chris Powell/GATA)

Everything’s glittering except gold — and financial journalism

 
 Section: 

 

Everything’s Glittering Except Gold

By Mike Bird
The Wall Street Journal
Thursday, February 18, 2021

https://www.wsj.com/articles/everythings-glittering-except-gold-11613637…

You have to feel a little sorry for investors in gold. Central bankers and finance ministries have opened the cash sluices, and what looks like a speculative boom is under way in many corners of global financial markets. But over the past 12 months the yellow metal — the original darling of skeptics of spendthrift governments — has underperformed the S&P 500.

At a bit below $1,800 a troy ounce, gold prices are far below the highs of around $2,050 reached in early Augus

Watching bitcoin hit $50,000, SoftBank’s stock price surpass its dot-com boom high and even silver catch a bid from retail traders must be particularly difficult for holders of gold. Many had expected that the original speculative asset would prosper under the unusual market conditions of the past year.

But it simply hasn’t worked out that way.

The metal’s recent performance should be confirmation, if any were really needed, that buyers of gold are really just buying inflation-protected government bonds under a different name. Since 2005, the yield on 10-year TIPS — inflation indexed U.S. government bonds — has had an R-squared relationship of 0.81 with the daily price of gold, meaning the moves in one explain the majority of moves in the other.

A plethora of other explanations for gold prices, like physical demand, flows from central banks, and the rising popularity of exchange-traded funds may have some meaning, but those have been minnows in terms of their impact on the direction of prices. If real interest rates aren’t falling, it is hard for gold to sustain any meaningful gains. If they aren’t rising, it is hard for gold to fall much. Beyond that, there isn’t much going on except to the most committed and involved analysts.

So what happens to the price now mostly depends on your view of the Federal Reserve’s actions and the capacity of the U.S. economy: 10-year market inflation expectations are at their highest levels since mid-2014, but bond yields have risen to match.

Investors who have a strong view on whether inflation is coming and if so whether the Fed would react quickly against it might make a bet on gold. Otherwise it is hard to see the appeal.

—-

Write to Mike Bird at Mike.Bird@wsj.com.

* * *

Thursday, February 18, 2021

Dear Mr. Bird:

Your commentary in the Journal today, “Everything’s Glittering Except Gold” —

https://www.wsj.com/articles/everythings-glittering-except-gold-11613637…

— omitted the primary explanation for the question you raised. That is, daily intervention by central banks in the gold futures and related markets — longstanding Western central bank policy.

This intervention was documented extensively in a presentation I made this week to the Gold Week Africa conference in Lagos, Nigeria:

http://gata.org/node/20925

I told the conference that the first rule of mainstream financial journalism, including the Journal’s own journalism, is never to put to a central bank a critical question about gold, or about anything else for that matter.

Please consider breaking that rule.

With good wishes.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

END

Ed Steer talks with Tom Bodrovics of Palisades Gold Radio

(Palisades/Ed Steer/GATA)

Silver so tight it’s about to blow sky-high, Steer tells Palisades Gold Radio

 
 Section: 

 

8:15p ET Thursday, February 19, 2021

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

GATA board member Ed Steer, publisher of Ed Steer’s Gold and Silver Digest letter, was interviewed yesterday by Tom Bodrovics of Palisades Gold Radio, discussing the huge short position in the silver futures market held by bullion banks.

Steer says the bullion banks are desperate to induce contract holders to postpone delivery of metal, whose supplies are very tight. Meanwhile premiums on silver coins and bars have risen far above nominal “spot” prices, Steer says.

If manufacturers that use silver ever move to protect themselves by taking delivery of metal for more than immediate needs, Steer says, the market will not be able to provide it without much higher prices.

The interview is headlined “Silver Price Is About to Blow Sky-High,” is 29 minutes long, and can be viewed at Palisades Gold Radio here:

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC6X0ttmzTAJt_2ebcqcIbYw

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA

END

iii) Other physical stories:

Special thanks to Doug C for sending this tous

a must read.

(Egon Von Greyerz)

 

CALLING THE HOLDINGS OF CENTRAL BANKS “ASSETS” IS A TRAVESTY

Akhlys, the Greek goddess of Misery and Poison, is exerting a major influence on the world currently. And sadly the dosage of misery and poison will increase in coming months and years.

What is now crystal clear is that this excess dose of fake assets and fake liabilities will totally poison the financial system and the world economy.

As Paracelsus, the renowned 16th century Swiss physician said; “all things are poison, it is the dosage that makes it either a poison or a remedy.”

When a world already in trouble was hit by a severe financial crisis in September 2019, the dose of debt was already excessive. But as the Fed and the ECB opened the money spigots fully, they filled the world with poisoned or fake money. The BY team (Biden & Yellen) will now be certain to finish this process with their profligate spending plans.

MAJOR CENTRAL BANKS BALANCE SHEETS UP 6X SINCE 2006

The financial system has been poisoned for decades by governments’ excess spending and central banks’ prodigal printing of toxic and worthless money.

And now, with Covid, they have the perfect excuse to senselessly create trillions of dollars, euros, yuan or yen. The world doesn’t realise that this money, fabricated by pressing a button, is no different from the Monopoly board game money.

Just look at the balance sheet of the four major central banks – the Fed, ECB, Bank of Japan and the People’s Bank of China.

As the graph above shows, these central banks’ balance sheets have exploded almost 6x since 2006. In 2008-9, their total balance sheet were $9 trillion and now they are $29t.

CALLING THE HOLDINGS OF CENTRAL BANKS “ASSETS” IS A TRAVESTY.

Business assets are defined as items of value. So how are these “assets of value” created in the financial system?

Firstly the central bank creates toxic money out of thin air. By definition, money that has been fabricated without real labour or production of goods or services must have ZERO value.

Secondly, the central bank purchases “poisoned” assets in the form of debt that cannot and will not ever be repaid. These debts are issued by bankrupt governments and other insolvent debtors who can only repay their debts by issuing more debt.

So this whole corrupt and circular system should be defined as “Poison in – Poison out”.

The poison in is the fabricated fake money which has ZERO value. The poison out are the assets/debts bought with fake money which will all expire worthless.

And it is on this construction of toxic assets and liabilities that the whole financial system rests.

It is totally absurd to swallow that such a system can survive.

Hmmm…….

THE 2nd WAVE OF GREAT FINANCIAL CRISIS IS HERE

We were told that the crisis was over in 2009 and still the balance sheets of these central banks are up more than 3x. Hmmm……

The reason is simple, the Great Financial Crisis in 2006-9 was never solved, the can was just kicked down the road. But this time the can is too big.

A WORLD DROWNING IN DEBT

And now 12 years later the whole world is drowning in $280 trillion debt – up 3x this century.

The illustration above shows global debt reaching $360 trillion by 2030.

This assumes a simple extrapolation of current trends. In my view, there is a major risk of a hyperinflationary debt explosion in the next 4-9 years to $2 quadrillion or more. Probably it will take a lot less than 9 years.

DERIVATIVES – WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION

So how is this massive increase of debt to $2 quadrillion possible? There are at least $1.5 quadrillion of derivatives outstanding today. Derivatives are an incredible gravy train for banks in rising and liquid markets.

But with crashing stock markets and massive pressures in debt markets, there will be little liquidity in derivatives. This will likely lead to central banks printing enough money to buy most of the derivatives of ailing banks. This is what would create $2 quadrillion or more in global debt.

THE MORE DEBT THE MORE ASSET MARKETS INFLATE

So what is happening to all this debt based money created. Well almost none of it reaches the real economy but instead it stays with the banks and is used by private and institutional investors to buy assets like stocks, bonds and property.

So while there is very little that reaches the ordinary man, the wealthy can take advantage of this massive liquidity to further expand the already epic bubble in asset markets.

The graphs below, showing total US M1 money supply and its velocity, illustrate this perfectly.

As Money Supply surges 5x from $1.3t in 2005 to $6.8t in 2021, the Velocity of Money crashes from 10 to 3. This means that the money printed does not reach the real economy but instead is just used to inflate asset prices.

Since all this money is created out of thin air and is just toxic or worthless, it would have little effect in simulating the real economy.

But investors are under the illusion that this toxic liquidity is actually creating wealth!

No wonder they are under that illusion since global equities have increased in value by $24 trillion since March 2020. That is a staggering 30% of global GDP.

Why should anyone work when by printing money and investing, the world can create 30% of GDP in just 10 months by buying stocks?

Sadly, investors neither see nor worry about that stocks are going up just because they are going up rather than due to rising profits or improving fundamentals.

GLOBAL ASSET CRASH AHEAD

What they don’t realise it that a global crash is right ahead – a crash that will destroy 90-95% of their illusory wealth.

Since the latest phase of the stock market rise started in the early 1980s, investors have forgotten to take profits. Even though there have been some nasty corrections, investors have been saved by central banks every time. Therefore why should they take profit?

“The market always goes up! So it is always right to be in the market.”

They have forgotten that in 1929-32, the Dow fell by 90% and that it took 25 years to recover. And this time the bubbles of debt and assets are far greater.

So now we have toxic valuations created by toxic money.

BOSSES EARNING 357X MORE THAN WORKERS

The rich are also getting substantially richer which is what creates revolutions. Just take the average chief executive of an S&P 500 company.

He now earns 357x as much as the average worker. Back in the 1960s he earned 20x! And in the mid 1980s it was still only 28x.

The graph below illustrates this phenomenon very clearly.

At the beginning of the 1900s, the top 10% received between 40% and 50% of total income. Then came the Wall Street crash and the 1930s depression, followed by WWII.

The consequences were that between 1940 and 1985, the top 10% went from as high as 50% of total income down to just over 30%.

GREENSPAN – MANNA FROM HEAVEN

But then things improved for the top earners again in the mid 1980s. First stock markets started booming. Then, once Greenspan became chairman of the Fed, that was like manna from heaven for investors.

The programme of producing manna money has just got better with every new Fed chief. Tens of trillions of dollars of debt has been created to boost the stock market. But once the 2000s got going, manufacturing money wasn’t sufficient. No, the money had to be free also or even better, you got paid for borrowing money. Well at least banks and central banks do.

HOW WILL IT ALL END?

Debt bubbles can only end in one way. With imploding debt and crashing asset markets.

But before that there will be a final overdose of poison in the form of massive money printing. This in a last and desperate attempt to solve a debt problem with more debt.

Sadly central bankers never studied Paracelsus theorem that all things are poison if the dose is too high.

They will soon find out……..

As the last overdose of debt hits the world, most currencies will finish their journey to ZERO, leading to hyperinflation.

HYPERINFLATION IS A CURRENCY DRIVEN EVENT

Many economists and commentators are certain that the world will not see inflation or higher interest rates for years. They can’t see a demand led inflation.

Let’s go back to history again. History helps us to predict the future but very few so called experts understand the significance of history.

Virtually every major debt bubble in history has ended in a currency collapse and hyperinflation. Few understand that hyperinflation is a currency driven event and not demand driven.

With most currencies down 97-99% since Nixon’s fatal decision in 1971 to close the gold window, the world will soon experience the final move to ZERO.

But remember that this move involves a 100% fall of the currencies from today. This is what will lead to hyperinflation. Just study history.

Hyperinflation normally only lasts a short period like 1-3 years. Thereafter the world will experience a deflationary implosion of debt and asset prices. The banking system is unlikely to survive such a collapse.

HISTORY TELLS US TO TAKE PROTECTION BEFORE THE EVENT

This scenario is obviously based on assumptions and probabilities. It is also based on history.

No forecast can ever be certain until afterwards. But at that time it will be too late to protect yourself.

What we know today is that risk is at a maximum. We also know that to protect against this uber-risk is not just wise but absolutely critical.

History tells us that in every major economic crisis, physical gold and silver has been the ultimate protection.

DON’T EXPECT IT TO BE DIFFERENT THIS TIME!

END

Bitcoin Soars Above $53,000 After Musk Calls It “Less BS Than Cash”; Ignores 5th JPMorgan Slam

 
FRIDAY, FEB 19, 2021 – 10:21

Another week, another attempt by JPMorgan to bash bitcoin.

In what is now the bank’s 5th attempt to talk down the cryptocurrency (we discussed the 4th one here, and see here for failed attempt #1attempts #2, and attempt #3), desperate JPM analysts – failing to find any original negatives – resorted to the oldest trick in the FUD book, bringing up the now discredited notion that tether somehow is the dominant price setter for bitcoin, writing that the bitcoin market could face severe liquidity shock if traders were to lose faith in Tether,  a stablecoin widely used to fund cryptocurrency purchases.

“If any issues arise that could affect the willingness or ability of both domestic and foreign investors to use USDT (+0.03%), the most likely result would be a severe liquidity shock to the broader cryptocurrency market, which could be amplified by its disproportionate impact on HFT [high-frequency trading]-style market makers which dominate the flow,” JPMorgan analysts wrote in a 86-page report published Thursday.

They then raised the panic level to 11, adding that “a sudden loss of confidence in Tether could end up triggering the crypto version of a bank run, destabilizing exchanges and causing a panic drop in bitcoin’s price. A bank run occurs when many depositors withdraw their money at the same time over concerns of the bank’s solvency.

This, of course, is false: as we explained before Tether demand does indeed supports bitcoin; and no, Tether is not some fiat that is created out of thin air (like USD). Instead, tether is how Chinese circumvent the great firewall. As long as there is capital flight out of China, tether will be bought… as will Bitcoin.

Having learned to ignore all the desperate attempts to hammer bitcoin prices (just so its prop traders can buy in), the market instead bid up the cryptocurrency to a new all time high, with XBT rising to a new all time high of $53,263 earlier today…

… with traders instead focusing on Elon Musk’s defense of Tesla’s $1.5 billion Bitcoin investment on Twitter, calling the cryptocurrency a “less dumb” version of cash. “Having some Bitcoin, which is simply a less dumb form of liquidity than cash, is adventurous enough for an S&P 500 company,” Musk wrote, adding that Tesla’s decision to buy Bitcoin doesn’t directly reflect his opinion.

“When fiat currency has negative real interest, only a fool wouldn’t look elsewhere,” Musk said referring to sub-zero real returns on cash caused by – who else – the Fed. “Bitcoin is almost as bs as fiat money. The key word is ‘almost.'” Bingo.

Musk’s tweets were in response to remarks by Binance Holdings’s chief Changpeng Zhao. In a Bloomberg Television interview, Zhao wondered why Tesla bought Bitcoin if he’s so “gung-ho” on Dogecoin. Musk said he’s an engineer, not an investor, and doesn’t own any publicly traded stock besides Tesla.

Musk’s comments of course sum up the big issues facing central banks – and markets – this year. With trillions in newly created cash being pumped into the financial system from governments fighting the pandemic and sloshing around, investors are increasingly worried about inflation and looking for alternative places to put their money. Hence Bitcoin at $53,000.

Meanwhile, showing just how much demand there is for bitcoin, Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas observes that on the first day of trading of Canada’s brand new Bitcoin ETF, the BTCC, it was “the most traded ETF in the country on its FIRST DAY. I’ve never seen that. It would be like an ETF here trading more than $SPY on its first day. And this is just the CAD class, USD class was 11th most traded.”

Translation: bitcoin $100K is coming

 

end

J Johnson’s commodity report

https://www.jsmineset.com/2021/02/19/gamestopping-our-freedom-of-speech/

 

https://www.jsmineset.com/2021/02/19/gamestopping-our-freedom-of-speech/

 

GameStopping Our Freedom Of Speech!

 

Posted February 19th, 2021 at 8:31 AM (CST) by J. Johnson & filed under General Editorial.

 

Great and Wonderful Friday Morning Folks,

 

     The February Precious Metals Options expiration happens next week Tuesday. With that in mind Gold goes lower, with the April contract trading at $1,768.50, down $6.50 after the typical London hit down to $1,759 with the high to beat at $1,776.30. Silver is harder to shake loose from the physical buyers grip with the May contract at $27.09, down 2.8 cents after that huge market-makers-middle-of-the-night-slam-dunk down to $26.105 before it recovered with the high to beat at $27.29. The US Dollar is still rangebound with the trade calculated at 90.26, down 34 points and close to the low of 90.215 with the high at 90.66. Of course, all this happened before 5 am pst, the Comex open, the London close, and after the Gamestop Hearing happened, in which one law faker, feels people who discuss the markets on an open free speech platform are a threat to the markets, controlled by Algo’s. “This episode exposes a serious threat to our financial system,” Scott said. “When tweets, social media posts, do more to move the market than material legitimate information(??), the risk is enormous…”

 

      On Venezuela, Gold is now valued at 17,662.89 Bolivar, proving another reduction of 138.83 overnight with Silver now carrying a 270.56 Bolivar value showing a loss of 1.79. Argentina’s current price for Gold shows another 1,045.88 pull with the last buy at 157,498.18 Peso’s with Silver trading at 2,412.44 A-Peso’s taking back 12.94, or half of yesterday’s gains. Turkey’s last Lira price for Gold is at 12,326.87 showing the currency pulled another 75.76 from yesterday’s value with Silver’s last trade at 188.81, a reduction of 0.92 T-Lira. 

 

      February Silver’s Delivery Demands now shows a post of 366 fully paid for contracts waiting for receipts and again, with Zero Volume posted during London’s trading period. Yesterday’s full day of activity had 2 new buys at $27.125, down 18.9 cents over the previous Comex close, with Thursday’s calculated close at 27.077, down 23.7 cents where no trade was made, which also witnessed a reduction of 98 contracts that got receipts, maybe. Silver’s Overall Open Interest shows another 2,178 contracts leaving the field of play giving us an early morning total of 181,082 paper promises that trade against a product that can’t be found at these prices.

 

      February Gold’s Delivery Demands, are still a heavy burden for Comex, with the count now at 3,173 fully paid for contracts waiting for receipts and with a Volume of 21 up on the board with a trading range between $1,771.30 and $1,764.30 with the last “London buy” at $1,769.60, down $3.80 so far today. Yesterday’s full day of trade happened in between $1,784.60 and $1,766 with the last purchase at $1,771.80, up 80 cents with a CCC at $1,773.40, a gain of $2.30 that had a total of 587 new swaps, that increased the standing orders by 291 contracts waiting for receipts. As the physical demands gained, Gold’s Overall Open Interest declined, as another 1,529 contracts left the trade leaving a total of 498,375 paper promises to control this market till the Options come off the board in one of our primary delivery months.

 

      The Gamestop hearing was chock a block full of great stuff. Questions surrounded the funding (bailout?) of Robinhood, the requirements to get that additional funding (ironically from the same companies that own algo trading platforms used to short Gamestop?) in order to keep Robinhood in business. Or the apparent bias towards those evil “dumb money” traders who got together on a freedom of speech platform, to talk about how these innocent hedge funds can “legally” (SEC allowed) oversell shares they don’t have, and of course, how small investors can gang up against an innocent hedge fund, and actually cause financial damage to the entire system. They also talked about the options that were “In The Money” that helped the GameStop price that most likely helped smoked that short squeeze exit. They even spoke about blockchaining the markets!!!

 

      Here we come to the issue at hand; Apparently, the freedom of speech is a problem for these Algo’s and those that support a system that intentionally keeps the small or individual trader from profitting. Is this why Greg Hunter was punished after his most recent interview with Bill, when they talked about Silver and Gold, which got YouTubed? Or is it because Greg has been reporting and still thinks; Big Tech Censors, 2020 Election Still Stolen, Economy Fragile? What a joke we live in, when freedom of speech at the retail level, is offensive to Algo profitting companies like every major and central bank. Supposedly the SEC and their supporting friends will be at the next show. This should be interesting to hear “live”.

 

      Algo’s have controlled the prices of everything from stocks, all the way into the commodities, that support all manufacturing and life, with virtually no price discovery being allowed without the algo’s controlling them. That is, until someone figures out the words these Algos respond to, and use those words against the software. Let us not forget that Algo’s have been created to write articles for sports and finance too. What can an Algo hide? Real news, real prices, real everything?

 

      One thing for sure, the precious metals we hold in hand, cannot be used against us. Which is why, we stress the idea of holding your own and away from the Big Wrek that will happen in the future. Enjoy your weekend, keep that smile on your face and a prayer for all. As always …

 

Stay Strong!

Jeremiah Johnson

JeremiahJohnson@cableone.net

More J.Johnson content is available with purchase of a JSMineset subscription.

end

COPPER

.

Goldman Warns Of Historic Shortage As Copper Explodes Higher

 
FRIDAY, FEB 19, 2021 – 13:05

The endless flood of both central bank and fiscal stimulus means that hundreds of billions of liquidity – to the tune of approximately 0.7% of global GDP every single month…

… are entering the market every month, and the result is not only the continued push higher in risk assets but soaring commodity prices, with industrial metal prices powering to the highest in years on bets an economic recovery and worldwide push for cleaner, greener energy will unleash vast, pent-up demand.

As the chart above shows, nowhere has the recent surge been more evident than in the dramatic gains across the base metals complex, with nickel at its highest since 2014 and copper eyeing a record stretch of monthly advances as it creeps closer to $10,000 a ton.

And looking at copper, which is already where it traded just before the global financial crisis…

… it is only a matter of time before we see a new all time high. Indeed, overnight copper extended its surge to a nine-year high as Goldman Sachs warned of a historic shortage with the market now on the cusp of the tightest phase in what we expect to be the largest deficit in a decade” as Chinese buying “triggers the next leg higher” adding to expectations that prices will near a record sooner rather than later. Here are some highlights from a note published overnight by Goldman analyst Nicholas Snowdon:

China’s return from the LNY holiday has heralded a burst of onshore investor copper buying after the holiday season with limited inventory builds evident so far. This latter trend during a period of what should be peak surplus generation onshore, has particularly bullish implications given that the market is now on the cusp of the tightest phase in what we expect to be the largest deficit in a decade. The very low starting point for inventories at the beginning of this year has been further exacerbated by a counter seasonal stock draw so far in Q1 on a scale only seen once before in recent history (in 2004). These trends point towards a high risk of scarcity conditions over the coming months. In this context, the fundamental outlook for copper remains extremely bullish with no evidence that current price levels are yet stimulating softening effects to reverse both spot and forward fundamental tightening trends. We continue to forecast the largest deficit in 10 years in 2021 (327kt), followed by an open-ended phase of deficits as peak copper supply (2023/24) and a record 10-year supply gap on the horizon. To reflect the rising probability of scarcity pricing our new 3/6/12M copper targets increase to $9,200/$9,800/$10,500/t (from $8,500/9,000/10,000/t previously). We consider below the key bullish increments for copper supporting the revision higher in price targets.

This means that Goldman now expects copper to be trading at record highs in 1 year. Anyway, back to the note:

Chinese investors have refocused on copper. The absence of Chinese investor copper buying for the year-to-LNY period was a clear restraint on copper price action. Chinese buying had been the key buying channel from early November which took copper from $6,600/t to $8,000/t in just six weeks but then dissipated from year-end. However, today on the open after a week holiday we saw SHFE copper interest increase by 22k lots (+8%) set against a strong rise in price (Exhibit 3). This points clearly to the return of very strong onshore investor buying. The absence of this investor flow pre-LNY was in our view predominantly related to typical position squaring into the holiday period rather than reflecting a substantially different view on copper. With that calendar restraint now passing, we expect a sustained wave of Chinese buying. We would note that total SHFE copper open interest (324k lots) is still 16% below late November recent peak (377k lots) as well as 40% below record highs. Therefore we believe there is ample capacity for further onshore positioning extension in copper. We would also note that positioning on Western exchanges (LME, COMEX) has remained relatively stable at significant net long levels, but still substantially below record net length (COMEX money manager net long still 30% below September 2017 record net long). In our view the market remain some distance from approaching peak spec long capacity

Citi agreed with Goldman, expecting a substantial supply deficit until at least 2023.

It wasn’t just copper: other commodities have also soared with lithium, key to powering electric cars and backing up renewable energy, rebounding. And while tin headed for an unprecedented 16th straight weekly gain amid a supply squeeze, Platinum has been this year’s top-performing major precious metal, thanks to its use in catalytic converters.

end
A good one:
How the SLV shorts the silver market
(Steve Brown)

How SLV Shorts the Silver Market

Steve Brown

NB: I’ve included a Big Retailer example to illustrate the similarity in strategy; Big Retailer referred to as the fictitious “ARMEX”

Here’s how the Big Retailer (“ARMEX”) plays silver where the key is the big premium difference between selling physical metal and the quoted (paper) silver spot price

I. ARMEX Case

  1. ARMEX buys product wholesale (coins, bars, whatever) for their physical stock, to sell on. ARMEX buys that product near spot price or below.
  2. Same time ARMEX sells silver futures short (put options) and/or futures contracts on the COMEX.

“Can’t lose” Strategy:

a. If silver’s price rises they profit on the physical sales + premium over spot. The puts are leveraged and they expire worthless, but ARMEX only loses the premium on the put, which is offset versus the greater gains on physical sales, plus the sales premiums over spot. If the silver price falls, they are hedged by their short (put) position in the futures market.

b. So if silver spot goes down, the put options expire in the money and ARMEX is left with physical stock, which they lower the sales premium on when the market is slow, but still make a profit.

II. SLV Case (JPM/BlackRock)

  1. ‘Investor’ provides funds to SLV for silver ounces
  2. SLV buys silver at spot, unallocated ounces
  3. SLV now has unallocated ounces in its virtual vault.
  4. SLV sells its unallocated @ spot as COMEX participant (note that COMEX standing and ‘basket redemption’ seldom occurs)
  5. SLV takes its fee in part from the proceeds of sale.
  6. SLV invests rest of the proceeds in Wall Street market shares

NB: On the odd occasion where a COMEX buyer stands for 1000oz delivery, or a participant demands an SLV “basket redemption”, then the SLV settles in funds (cash) with the COMEX for COMEX delivery; or in either case (“basket case” or COMEX) JPM/BlackRock do have physical to satisfy the ’50k share block rule’ in the rare event such demand is made. As such, SLV operates on much the same level as a private gold guild.

Essentially, in the SLV case we have described a strategy analogous to the definition of the gold carry trade which I have written about on numerous occasions. Also note the similarity here to the ARMEX strategy, where SLV is a derivative instead of the real thing. Plus, the silver carry trade is easier to game and “less regulated” with SLV being a derivative and not a real deliverable commodity, where silver is generally not held as a monetary metal by central banks (even though it is). Since silver is not held as a monetary asset by Central Banks, recall that the Bullion Banks are the culprit here. The BB’s game silver on behalf of certain governments, the LBMA, and the Bank of International Settlements. Hence the somewhat higher volatility of the silver spot price.

Since silver and gold have challenged the monetary hegemonic role of paper money for centuries, major central banks and especially bullion banks wish to keep the price suppressed. As described by Ferdinand Lips years ago, the bullion banks (many of whom are primary dealers) have the intent to profit by manipulating the trade in monetary metals, rather than profits made by increase in their value, which harms industry and most of all endangers the false fiat illusion of value, which the monetary cartel must maintain at all costs.

If there is no other takeaway from the above, the major point is that JP Morgan and BlackRock will not allow dollars to sit idle as represented by SLV silver ounces, whether allocated or not; they will put those dollars to use as they see fit.

Your early FRIDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED UP AT 6.4874 /

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.4479   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 20.81 PTS OR .57%

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 49.40 PTS OR .16%

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 218.17 POINTS OR 0.72%

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL GREEN/

USA dollar index DOWN TO 90261/Euro FALLS TO 1.2133

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: RISES TO. +.11/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 105.33/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 59.55 and Brent: 63.20

3f Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE CLOSED UP/OFF- SHORE: UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO -.32%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 0.63% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 0.35%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 0.95: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO : 0.90

3k Gold at $1774.00 silver at: 27.15   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 1/100 in roubles/dollar) 73.86

3m oil into the 59 dollar handle for WTI and 63 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 105.33 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .8942 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0852 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to 0.32%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 1.314% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.100%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 6.963..

Futures Rebound As Yields Stabilize, Overheating Fears Fade

 
FRIDAY, FEB 19, 2021 – 7:59

US equity futures faded yesterday’s weakness and rebounded from overnight lows, as European stocks snapped their longest streak of losses since October as 10Y yields steadied and attention shifted to corporate earnings and economic data away from reflation fears.

Global shares edged up on Friday, reversing three days of losses, as investors clung to hopes of economic recovery ahead, even as German and British 10-year bond yields touched multi-month highs, spurred by bets of global reflation. Oil added to recent losses while the dollar slumped even as sentiment out of China remained muted after another day of liquidity drains from the PBOC.

The MSCI world equity benchmark was 0.2% stronger. On Thursday, Wall Street logged its biggest daily drop in nearly three weeks on a slide in technology-related firms, ahead of today’s PMI report. At 715 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were up 52 points, or 0.172%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 13.5 points, or 0.35%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 57.25.75 points, or 0.42%. Some of the notable pre-market movers include:

  • Uber fell 2.3% after Britain’s Supreme Court ruled on Friday that a group of Uber drivers are entitled to worker rights such as the minimum wage.
  • Applied Materials rose 5.1% after it forecast second-quarter revenue above market expectations, as demand for its semiconductor manufacturing tools picked up during a global shortage of semiconductors.
  • Roku added 3.8% after it reported quarterly revenue above market expectations, thanks to an influx

Amid strong earnings, progress in vaccination roll-outs and hopes of a $1.9 trillion federal stimulus package, U.S. stock indexes hit record highs at the start of the week but since slumped as fears that surging 10Y yields could lead to a drop in appetite for high duration stocks and hammer stocks if the plunge in 10Ys extended to 1.50% (according to Nomura). Late on Thursday, JPM strategists wrote that the “S&P is -53bps WTD but some of the client conversations seem to indicate a bit more panic than is warranted, potentially induced by the bond market moves this week.” As a result of this “panic”, the Dow was nearly flat for the week, while the benchmark S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq were tracking their first weekly loss this month.

Concerns over higher stock market valuations and a potential snag in inoculation efforts have led to fears of a short-term pullback in equities. As noted last week, BofA expects a more than 10% pullback in stocks which are trading at more than 22 times 12-month forward earnings, the most expensive since the dotcom bubble of the late 1990s.

“It’s kind of odd to think that only a year ago investors were worried about depression and deflation and now they are worried about overheating and inflation,” said Shane Oliver, an economist for AMP.

“The big-picture backdrop of still-low underlying inflation and spare capacity in jobs markets, combined with economic and profit recovery and low interest rates, is a positive one for growth assets, particularly shares,” he said.

Stocks in Europe snapped their longest streak of losses since October with the Stoxx 600 index fluctuating before heading higher for the first time in four days. The Eurostoxx 50 rose 0.5% with France’s CAC the marginal outperformer as miners, travel and insurance names rose while healthcare and media are soft. The energy and utilities sub-indexes are the two worst performers in the Stoxx 600 benchmark on a drag from renewable-energy names. The Energy index was down as much as 1.5%, utilities index down as much as 1.1% Solar firm Scatec and wind-turbine maker Vestas among the biggest fallers in the energy index, after Credit Suisse analyst Mark Freshney said in a Feb. 18 note that Vestas now trading close to the broker’s blue-sky valuation on the stock; remains at underperform on valuation grounds. Here are some of the biggest European movers today:

  • Hermes shares surge as much as 8.9% to a record high after the luxury group delivered what Bernstein said was an “outstanding” result given the tough year the luxury sector had.
  • Danone shares gain as much as 4.6%, hitting the highest since September 16, amid expectations of changes to come at the French yogurt maker after CEO and Chairman Emmanuel Faber said the potential split of his role may become a topic in the future and that the group may divest assets.
  • Moncler shares rise as much as 7.6%, hitting a record, with analysts saying the Italian luxury outdoor clothing maker delivered a strong end to 2020 and its full-year results were “significantly” above expectations.
  • BE Semiconductor shares jump as much as 8.7%, the most since April 30, with analysts at Kempen highlighting “blowout” guidance from the chip-equipment maker. Other chip stocks also gain, boosted by readacross from the strong results and outlook from U.S. bellwether Applied Materials.
  • Kingspan shares rise as much as 10% as Jefferies said it expects low-single-digit consensus upgrades for the Irish insulation supplier following a small beat on its FY results.
  • Sinch shares gain as much as 8.8% after analysts raised their price targets on the cloud communication software firm following this week’s deal to buy Inteliquent, which Handelsbanken says looks like a great match.
  • Copper miners continue to rally in line with the metal with Goldman Sachs warning that a “historic” shortage is on the horizon. Poland’s KGHM and Chile-focused Antofagasta are among the top gainers.
  • Renault shares slump as much as 8.5%, the most since July 30, after the carmaker posted a wider net loss than expected, with Jefferies highlighting the impact a global semiconductor shortage may have on the automaker.

The euro strengthened after Germany’s manufacturing PMI climbed more than forecast in February, though composite figures for the common-currency region were less encouraging. The German composite PMI increased by 0.5pt to 51.3 in February, above expectations for a small decline. The lockdown restrictions remained in place through February and have been extended recently (with non-essential shops closed until at least March 7). The composite improvement reflected divergent changes across sectors, with stronger manufacturing output (+3.2pt to 62.2) more than offsetting a weaker services PMI (-0.9 to 45.9). The headline manufacturing PMI was further supported by another lengthening of suppliers’ delivery times (which reached a record high[1] of 80), with reports of raw material (often steel) shortages and squeezed transport capacity.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks dropped for a second day, led by a group of energy names as oil prices slid on the restart of production in Texas. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 led declines among national benchmarks, pulled lower by commodities-related shares including BHP and Rio Tinto. While energy was the worst-performing sector in the region, chipmaker TSMC was the biggest drag on the MSCI Asia Pacific Index. The benchmark was set for its first weekly drop of the month. The regional gauge pared a decline of as much as 1% to 0.2% in late-afternoon trading, as Chinese and South Korean shares erased earlier losses

Over in Japan, markets also fell, with the Topix capping its first weekly drop since January, as automakers and railways declined. Service-sector firms were also among the biggest contributors to the benchmark’s drop. Automakers fell as production was hampered in Mexico by the shortage of natural gas and in Japan by last weekend’s earthquake. The Nikkei 225 retreated but managed to stay above the 30,000 level it regained earlier this week for the first time since 1990. Semiconductor supply-chain stocks rose after U.S. peer Applied Materials forecast revenue that exceeded analyst estimates.

“It looks like the Nikkei 225 is trying to consolidate its moves around the 30,000 level. There’s a lot of investors, domestically, who continue to hold a bullish view on Japanese equities,” said Ayako Sera, a market strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank Ltd. “The fall in U.S. equities against the backdrop of rising yields, is weighing on the market for now.”

India’s stock benchmark fell for a fourth day, capping its worst day in three weeks, as investors sold off equities after the gauge reached a record Monday. The S&P BSE Sensex slipped 0.9% to 50,889.76 at the close, completing its worst week this month. The NSE Nifty 50 Index dropped 0.9%, also down for the week. “The market is in an overbought scenario, and whenever this happens, a four-to-nine-day drop is possible. But I don’t see much downside,” said Vishal Wagh, head of research at Bonanza Portfolio Ltd. “This is just the market at its normal correction, which was overdue after a significant rally post-budget.”

Late on Thursday, Janet Yellen reiterated that the benefits of stimulus will outweigh the costs and she hopes to see progress on the bill in the next two weeks, while she added the Fed has the tools to deal with inflation and she wants to make sure stimulus checks are appropriately targeted. Yellen also stated that details of the infrastructure plan have not yet been provided but noted a tax increase would likely be used to pay for part of Biden’s infrastructure package which will be proposed later this year and suggested that the US could return to full employment by next year.

In rates, the 10Y reversed and traded lower after buying in the Asian turned to selling; the 10Y yield was 2bps wider last seen at 1.31%. Japan’s 10-year sovereign bond yield rose to the highest in more than two years Friday, intensifying speculation about the central bank’s next move at an upcoming review.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell a second day as the greenback weakened against all of its Group-of-10 peers. The pound shrugged of data showing that U.K. retail sales fell more than twice as fast as expected in January and surged through $1.40 for the first time in nearly three years as expectations for negative rates faded; Gilts bear steepened, underperforming bunds as pricing for easier monetary policy continued to be unwound. Australia’s dollar climbed against all its Group-of-10 peers after influential Westpac Banking Corp. economist Bill Evans boosted his forecast for the nation’s 10- year bond yield.  The euro strengthened after Germany’s manufacturing PMI climbed more than forecast in February, though composite figures for the common-currency region were less encouraging.

In commodities, oil dropped below $60 a barrel as wells slowly restarted in Texas after being hit by a big freeze. The White House said it would be willing to meet with Iran, potentially paving the way for more crude exports from the Persian Gulf nation.

LME copper rallies over 2% to outperform what is a well bid base metals complex. Elsewhere, gold dropped to a seven-month low on Friday, and futures also declined, deepening gold’s worst start to a year in three decades as it fell through a support level that analysts say could portend further losses. Bitcoin had no such concerns as it continued to rise to new all time highs, trading just shy of $53,000.

Looking at the day ahead now, the highlight will be latest flash PMIs from the US. On top of this, we’ll get January data on UK retail sales, German PPI and US existing home sales. From central banks, we’ll hear from the Fed’s Barkin and Rosengren.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.3% to 3,919.75
  • SXXP Index up 0.3% to 413.84
  • MXAP little changed at 218.13
  • MXAPJ little changed at 734.81
  • Nikkei down 0.7% to 30,017.92
  • Topix down 0.7% to 1,928.95
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.2% to 30,644.73
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.6% to 3,696.17
  • Sensex down 1.1% to 50,774.33
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 1.3% to 6,793.79
  • Kospi up 0.7% to 3,107.62
  • Brent futures down 0.7% to $63.49/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.1% to $1,774.27
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.3% to 90.28
  • German 10Y yield up 2 bps to -0.33%
  • Euro up 0.4% to $1.2137

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • The euro should now play a bigger role at the international level and this should be a priority for the euro zone member countries, Bank of France governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau says in an interview with French business daily Les Echos published on Friday
  • Business activity in the euro-area economy shrank for a fourth month in February as services struggled with continued lockdowns and factories ran into increasing supply constraints. A composite gauge for both sectors stood at 48.1, slightly higher than in January but still below the 50 mark that separates expansion from contraction. Services deteriorated at the fastest pace since November, while manufacturing output rose the most in four months
  • Markit said its composite U.K. Purchasing Managers Index rose to 49.8 in February, well above the 42.6 forecast by economists. It’s still below the critical 50 mark that signals expansion. A gauge of services activity climbed to 49.7, while manufacturing rose to 54.9
  • Bitcoin is closing in on a market value of $1 trillion, a surge that’s helping cryptocurrency returns far outstrip the performance of more traditional assets like stocks and gold
  • The pandemic is still making developments uncertain, and the need for expansionary monetary policy and low interest rates will remain for a long time, Sweden’s Riksbank says in minutes from its Feb. 9 meeting

A quick look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asian equity markets traded initially negatively, though China did pick-up towards the close, following a weak handover from Wall St where major indices declined as markets remained in consolidation mode following discouraging releases. ASX 200 (-1.3%) was dragged lower by underperformance in the commodity-related stocks, especially energy names due to the pullback in oil prices and after Woodside Petroleum was forced to delay talks to sell LNG to China amid ongoing trade frictions, with a miss on Retail Sales adding to the glum mood. Nikkei 225 (-0.7%) retreated beneath the 30k level with large automakers suffering from recent disruptions due to chip supply issues and Toyota also warned its Mexico operations will be impacted by a natgas shortage. Hang Seng (+0.2%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.6%) were initially uninspired before posting mild gains. Baby-related stocks were underpinned by reports China is considering lifting birth restrictions in the northeast part of the country. The PBoC continued with its liquidity drains and Chinese press reports stated that the central bank may keep its open market operations at a limited scale, although PBoC-affiliated media suggested not to mistake the recent liquidity withdrawal as a policy signal. Finally, 10yr JGBs were subdued after failing to benefit from the widespread risk aversion and despite the presence of the BoJ in the market for nearly JPY 1.2tln of JGBs in 1yr-10yr maturities, while the 10yr JGB yield hovered around 0.10% to reach its highest since November 2018.

Top Asian News

  • Myanmar Protester Shot in Head Dies, First Death Since Coup
  • Honda Appoints Japan R&D Chief Toshihiro Mibe as New CEO
  • China Gives New Details of Deadliest India Clash in Decades
  • Distressed Japan Hotel Chain Unizo Sparks Hedge Fund Battle

European stocks opened the last session of the week with a firmer footing evident across the board (Euro Stoxx 50 +0.5%) following a mixed/softer APAC lead. Meanwhile, US equity futures are trading with mild upside as the RTY outpacing peers and perhaps provides some weight to the reflationary narrative. Back to Europe, bourses did trade mixed during the early cash hours, although the region was lifted into positive territory following the release of regional Flash PMI figures. The FTSE 100 (unch) felt early pressure due to the firm up of the Pound as GBP/USD eclipsed 1.4000 to the upside, with mass vaccination a potential driving force. The UK benchmark then staged a brief recovery following blockbuster UK PMI figures which topped forecasts on all fronts, although the Sterling strength took the helm again. Moving on, sectors in Europe opened predominantly in the green but are currently trading mixed with no indicative risk bias. The Personal & Household goods (+0.7%) sector is an outperformer due to Moncler (+6.8%) and Hermes (+5.5%) reporting stellar earnings. Banking (+0.3%) opened firmer amid higher yields and NatWest (+1.0%) has seen morning gains despite underwhelming earnings metrics as the Co. looks to resumed payments. Oil & Gas (-0.6%) is the laggard which is in-fitting with WTI and Brent price action. On to individual movers, Leonardo (+7.7%) is gaining after reports the Co. is set to raise over EUR 2bln from the listing of its US unit DRS. Porsche (+3.0%) is seeing further upside after yesterday’s news of the potential IPO which would in turn boost VW’s market cap. Sticking with the auto sector, Renault (-5.5%) is dented after they reported sub-par earnings whilst announcing they will not pay a 2020 dividend and warning that the chip shortage is likely to impact 100k vehicles for the year and will likely reach a peak in Q2. The chip shortage news could result in a follow through action for other Autos and be used as a gauge of what is expected by auto-makers going forward. Other notable earnings include Allianz (+1.3%) and Swiss Re (+0.4%).

Top European News

  • U.K. Retail Sales Plunge More Than Expected in January Lockdown
  • Sunak Delays Consideration of U.K. Online Sales Tax to the Fall
  • Danone CEO Faces Mounting Pressure Amid Tough Start to 2021
  • Eni Reports Surprise Quarterly Profit With Recovery in Crude

In FX, a strong end to the week for the Antipodean Dollars and considerably firmer rebounds from lows vs their US counterpart, as Aud/Usd takes a firmer grasp of the 0.7800 handle and Nzd/Usd tags along. The Aussie has shrugged aside somewhat disappointing preliminary consumption figures for January amidst a spike in bond yields, partly in catch up trade, but also on the back of Westpac lifting its 10 year cash rate forecast for end 2021 to 1.9% from 1.5% and a tad more than the US Treasury equivalent to widen the differential marginally (latter now seen at 1.8% vs 1.5% previously). Meanwhile, the Kiwi has revisited 0.7265+ w-t-d peaks by virtue of the fact that the Aud/Nzd cross remains capped below 1.0800 more than anything NZ specific although the output component of Q4 PPI rose 0.4% from -0.3% in the prior quarter.

  • EUR/JPY/DXY – The Euro has also taken advantage of EGB/UST yield divergence, though unlike the Aussie Eur/Usd has extended gains beyond 1.2100 to around 1.2140 with assistance from flash Eurozone PMIs showing ongoing strength in manufacturing to more than offset services sector underperformance. Similarly, the Yen is putting the squeeze on Greenback as the index retreats further from 91.000 through the 21 DMA (90.662), 90.500 and the 50 DMA (90.378) to 90.243, with Usd/Jpy back below 105.50 and the 21 DMA (105.48) in wake of fractionally firmer expected Japanese CPI.
  • CHF/CAD/GBP – Also firmer vs the Buck, as the Franc pivots 0.8950, Loonie hovers around 1.2650 awaiting Canadian retail sales and Pound probes barrier defences at 1.4000 following significant beats in UK PMIs, including services that were so ravaged by the return to lockdown last time. On that note, ONS retail sales data was extremely weak in contrast to public finances, but neither impacted that much.
  • SCANDI/EM/PM – Dovish-leaning Riksbank minutes have not derailed the Sek from its 10.0500 axis against the Eur, but retreating oil prices amidst efforts to restore US crude output after weather enforced shutdowns are undermining the Nok circa 10.2400 in cross terms, Rub and Mxn to varying degrees. However, precious metals are reeling again and cryptos continue to rally, with Gold tripping some stops sub-key support around Usd 1765/oz and Bitcoin posting yet another ATH close to Usd 53k.

In commodities, WTI and Brent Apr’21 futures continue to post losses with the former extending losses below USD 60/bbl (vs high USD 60.16/bbl) whilst the latter dips below USD 63.50/bbl (vs high 63.62/bbl). The complex has waned off lows as the broader risk sentiment picked up following the EZ and UK flash PMI data, although oil prices remain pressured amid some supply-side developments – as the complex carries on unwinding the Texas deep-freeze premium with the oil patch is slowly restarting wells – reflected in the steeper losses in WTI vs Brent. Some geopolitical premium is also potentially unravelling amid reports the Biden admin is willing to negotiate with Iran, with an interim agreement mulled in a bid to build confidence on both sides. Expanding on the first point, Texas produced some 4.6mln BPD of oil according to the latest EIA data, whereby a bulk was shuttered throughout the week. However, as the deep-freeze in the region abates and power is restored, the question now turns to how swiftly operations can fully resume. Oil traders, alongside executives, hope for production to be re-available within days, although warned that a small number may remain shut for longer due to repairs – with the actual timeframe for full restoration still up in the air. Elaborating on the geopolitical factor, markets have been flirting with the prospect of Iranian oil returning to the market amid hopes US will lift some sanctions against the country. Cold water was poured on this earlier in the month after President Biden firmly suggested he will not lift sanctions to get Iran to the negotiating table with regards to its nuclear activity. However, reports overnight via Politico suggested scope for a new deal between the countries, with an interim deal touted as an option to ease tensions between the sides. “A broader deal could possibly include non-nuclear aspects, such as limits on Iran’s ballistic missile program, and have provisions that last longer than the original deal or are permanent”, the report said. This development raises the possibility of Iranian oil returning to the market, albeit it’ll then have to tackle the OPEC+ hurdle in relation to the output cut quotas – likely to be a topic to touch upon in the upcoming JMMC and OPEC+ meetings on Mar 3rd and 4th respectively. Meanwhile, the demand backdrop remains constructive with reports also suggesting that vaccines appear to lower COVID-19 infections and transmissions by 2/3, according to data from Public Health England (set to be published later this month), as disclosed by The Telegraph in which it labels the study as the first to use “real world data”. Elsewhere precious metals are mixed with spot gold resuming its real-yield-driven downside after yesterday testing support at around USD 1,764/oz, whilst the technical “death cross” confirmation earlier in the weak flagged a bearish signal. Spot silver meanwhile is firmer as a function of the softer Dollar. Turning to base metals, Dalian iron ore futures fell overnight amid a significant increase in post-Lunar New Year inventories. Meanwhile, LME copper rallied past USD 8,700/oz on rosy demand prospects, the softer Buck, and mild recovery in stocks. On this note, analysts at GS raised their 3/6/12M copper targets to USD 9,200/t, USD 9,800/t, and USD 10,500/t respectively (from USD 8,500/t, UDF 9,000/t, and USD 10,000/t previously).

US Event Calendar

  • 9:45am: Feb. Markit US Composite PMI, prior 58.7
  • 9:45am: Feb. Markit US Services PMI, est. 58.0, prior 58.3
  • 9:45am: Feb. Markit US Manufacturing PMI, est. 58.8, prior 59.2
  • 10am: Jan. Existing Home Sales MoM, est. -2.4%, prior 0.7%

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

It’s complicated. No, not my relationship status on Facebook from the noughties but financial markets this year. As regular readers will be aware I think the forces that will be unleashed on markets this year will be too big to see perfect calibration. So a much more complicated and higher vol environment than many believe. Ironically the smoothest period will likely be when we’re mostly locked down as we will be for several weeks/a few months longer. After that it gets more interesting with likely very strong growth, inflationary concerns mounting (whether realised or not), and bubbles being more vulnerable to burst. As I mentioned yesterday, I think this week might be a mini dress rehearsal with the spike in yields. Indeed yesterday global equities resumed their decline as concerns continued to rise among investors that higher sovereign bond yields could call a halt on the recent strong rally in risk assets. Indeed, both the S&P 500 (-0.44%) and Europe’s STOXX 600 (-0.82%) lost ground for a 3rd day running, which is the first time that’s happened for either index this year. It was the lowest closing level for the S&P in just over a week, with both higher bond yields (especially real yields yesterday) as well as weak economic data putting pressure on valuations.

In terms of the specifics, tech stocks led the declines once again, with the NASDAQ losing a further -0.72% and the NSYE FANG+ index seeing an even larger -1.07% decline, which marks the biggest 2-day decline for the index (-2.54%) since the end of January. Meanwhile Walmart (-6.48%) had its worst day since March last year after the company said that net sales and earnings per share were both expected to decline in FY22. As mentioned, matters weren’t helped by weaker-than-expected data from the US, where the weekly initial jobless claims for the week through February 13 hit a 4-week high of 861k (vs. 773k expected), and the previous week’s reading was also revised up by +55k. The weekly frequency of this reading means it’s one of the timeliest indicators we get on the state of the economy, and the 4-week moving average has now been stuck between 814k and 857k since mid-December, which raises questions as to the speed of the recovery in the labour market. On top of this, Oil prices reversed after hitting their highest levels in more than a year as the disruption to oil refineries in Texas remains the dominant story. WTI fell -1.01% and Brent retreated -1.35% on the day – the largest one day decline since January 15 for both crude futures. WTI (-1.39%) and Brent (-1.14%) are again trading lower this morning as Texas shale oil production has started to slowly comeback online. Oil prices are also being weighed down by news that the White House is willing to talk to Iran to discuss a “diplomatic way forward” in efforts to return to the nuclear deal, a move which could potentially lead to more crude exports from the nation.

Back to bond yields and the selloff resumed yesterday even though there was a swift turn in US rates just before the European session closed. Yields on 10yr Treasuries were up as much as +4.6bps to 1.316% before coming back in and settling +2.5bps higher on the day at 1.296%. Notably, it was higher real yields rather than inflation expectations which drove the moves, with yields on inflation-protected US debt climbing +6.9bps to move above -0.90% for the first time since November. In contrast 10yr breakevens actually fell -4.5bps to 2.17% – the biggest one day drop since the end of January. It was much the same story in Europe, where a similarly sharp rise in real yields sent bond yields higher, with those on 10yr bunds up +2.2bps at -0.35%, their highest level since June last year, and real yields up +2.2bps to their highest level since November too.

Overnight, Asian markets have taken Wall Street’s lead with the Nikkei (-0.82%), Hang Seng (-0.67%), Shanghai Comp (-0.03), CSI (-0.30%) and Kospi (-0.16%) all trading lower. Futures on the S&P are down -0.21%. In keeping with the theme of rising yields, those on 10yr JGBs have also moved up by +1bp this morning to 0.1%, the highest level since 2018.

Speaking of real yields, the release of the ECB minutes yesterday actually touched on this issue, with Isabel Schnabel’s review of financial markets mentioning that “stock prices could eventually become vulnerable to a rise in real yields globally.” So an indication that policymakers are paying attention to this risk, not least given higher real yields would also threaten the inflation outlook. Another notable line from the minutes was that “it was argued that the fast rebound in growth foreseen in the December staff projections might be too optimistic, with growth in the second quarter of 2021 possibly at risk from extended lockdowns.” So it’ll be very interesting to see how the growth and inflation forecasts are revised in March to take account of this given the extended lockdowns seen in numerous countries.

Staying on Europe, Mario Draghi’s new government in Italy resoundingly won a confidence vote in the lower house yesterday by a 535-56 vote, which comes on the heels of the big victory in the Senate the previous day. However, a notable consequence of the vote has been a split in the Five Star Movement, from which 15 senators were expelled yesterday following their vote against the government. The decision to back Draghi has been contentious in the party given its roots as an anti-establishment force, but a 59% majority of its members voted to support the Draghi government in an online vote last week.

Today’s main highlight for markets will be the release of the flash PMIs from around the world, which will give us an initial indication of how the global economy has been faring into February. Overnight we’ve already had the releases from Japan and Australia, which showed Japan’s manufacturing reading climbing back above 50 to 50.6 (vs. 49.8 last month) despite the extension of a state of emergency in most prefectures including Tokyo. Japan’s services PMI was a touch softer at 45.8 (vs. 46.1 last month). Australia’s manufacturing (at 56.6 vs. 57.2 last month) and services (54.1 vs. 55.6) PMI both printed a bit softer.

Later this morning we’ll get the releases from Europe, where the consensus expectations are pointing towards little change on last month, when the Euro Area composite PMI remained in contractionary territory at 47.8. According to our European economists, based on the historic relationship between mobility and the PMIs, we’re unlikely to see any big changes given that the mobility readings have been pretty flat since the start of the year. It’ll be interesting to keep an eye out on the US later too, since last month their composite PMI (58.7) rose to its highest level since March 2015.

Turning to the pandemic, there were concerning signs that the weather disruption in the US was slowing down the pace of vacinations. Florida Governor DeSantis said that the shipment from Moderna would arrive late, while NYC Mayor de Blasio said that 30-35k appointments had to be held back. Massachusetts announced that they could send the National Guard to receive vaccine shots if the weather continues to disrupt supply chains. In more positive vaccine news out of the US, Bloomberg estimated that the US vaccine supply is expected to double by March. Given statements from Pfizer, Moderna, Johnson & Johnson executives and government officials vaccine supply could rise from 10-15 million per week currently to 20 million in March and 25 million in April and over 30 million in the following months. Elsewhere, in the UK, it was announced that the Northern Ireland lockdown would be extended until April 1, although children aged 4-7 would return to school on March 8. Cases have continued to fall across the UK, with the 7-day average now down to 12,084, the lowest since early October.

Overnight, the UK has said that it will share the “majority” of any future surplus coronavirus vaccines with the Covax program while Novavax has said that it will supply the program with 1.1bn doses. Novavax shares were up +7% in post market trading on the news. President Biden has also pledged that the US will contribute $4bn to Covax and France has said that it will donate 5% of its secured doses to the WHO initiative which aims to distribute vaccines to lower income countries. Meanwhile, reaffirming the high efficacy of a single shot of Pfizer/ BioNTech, the Lancet medical journal published a study overnight that said among health-care workers who received the vaccine, symptomatic infections were reduced by 85% in the 15 to 28 days after the first dose, compared with those who didn’t get a shot.

Looking at yesterday’s other data releases, US housing starts fell to an annualised rate of 1.580m in January (vs. 1.660m expected), though building permits rose to an annualised 1.881m (vs. 1.680m expected), their highest level since 2006. Elsewhere, the European Commission’s advance consumer confidence reading for the Euro Area in February rose to -14.8 (vs. -15.0 expected).

To the day ahead now, and the likely highlight will be the aforementioned release of the flash PMIs from around the world. On top of this, we’ll get January data on UK retail sales, German PPI and US existing home sales. From central banks, we’ll hear from the Fed’s Barkin and Rosengren.

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)FRIDAY MORNING/ THURSDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 20.81 PTS OR .57%   //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 49.40 PTS OR .16%    /The Nikkei closed DOWN 218.17 POINTS OR 0.72%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 1.28%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP AT 6.4874 /Oil UP TO 59.55 dollars per barrel for WTI and 63.20 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.4874. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.4479 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS //TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED//CORONAVIRUS/PANDEMIC/TRUMP TESTS POSITIVE FOR COVID 19  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3 C CHINA

CHINA/USA/GERMANY

German expert Dr Roland Wiesendanger, winner of many awards concludes that the circumstantial evidence points to a laboratory accident at the Wuhan Institute in China.

(Swiss Policy Research)

German Study: Laboratory Accident Most Likely Cause Of Coronavirus Pandemic

 
FRIDAY, FEB 19, 2021 – 3:30

Authored by Swiss Policy Research (emphasis ours),

Professor Dr. Roland Wiesendanger, a leading German expert in the field of nanotechnology and three-time winner of the prestigious European Research Council Advanced Grant, has completed a one-year, hundred-page study on the origin of the novel coronavirus. Professor Wiesendanger concludes that “both the number and quality of the circumstantial evidence point to a laboratory accident at the virological institute in the city of Wuhan as the cause of the current pandemic.”

In the following, SPR provides an English translation of the official German press release of the University of Hamburg. The hundred-page German study by Prof. Wiesendanger can be found here.

SPR would like to add the following information: The two most recent global pandemics were the 1977 ‘Russian flu’ and the 2009 ‘swine flu’. In both of these cases, modern genetic research indicates that a lab escape was the most likely origin of the pandemic virus (see here and here).


Study on the origin of the coronavirus pandemic published

Professor Dr. Roland Wiesendanger, University of Hamburg

For more than a year, the coronavirus has been causing a worldwide crisis. In a study, nanoscientist Prof. Dr. Roland Wiesendanger has now shed light on the origin of the virus. He concludes that both the number and quality of the circumstantial evidence point to a laboratory accident at the virological institute in the city of Wuhan as the cause of the current pandemic.

The study was conducted between January 2020 and December 2020. It is based on an interdisciplinary scientific approach and extensive research using a wide variety of information sources. These include scientific literature, articles in print and online media, and personal communication with international colleagues. It does not provide highly scientific evidence, but it does provide ample and serious circumstantial evidence:

  • Unlike previous coronavirus-related epidemics such as SARS and MERS, to date, well over a year after the outbreak of the current pandemic, no intermediate host animal has been identified that could have facilitated the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 pathogens from bats to humans. Therefore, the zoonotic theory as a possible explanation for the pandemic has no sound scientific basis.
  • The SARS-CoV-2 viruses are surprisingly good at coupling to human cell receptors and penetrating human cells. This is made possible by special cell receptor binding domains combined with a special (furin) cleavage site of the coronavirus zigzag protein. Both properties together were previously unknown in coronaviruses and indicate a non-natural origin of the SARS-CoV-2 pathogen.
  • Bats were not offered at the suspected fish market in the center of Wuhan city. However, the Wuhan City Virological Institute has one of the world’s largest collections of bat pathogens, which originated from distant caves in southern Chinese provinces. It is extremely unlikely that bats from this distance of nearly 2,000 km would have naturally made their way to Wuhan, only to cause a global pandemic in close proximity to this virological institute.
  • A research group at the Wuhan City Virological Institute has been genetically manipulating coronaviruses for many years with the goal of making them more contagious, dangerous and deadly to humans. This has been documented in the scientific literature by numerous publications.
  • Significant safety deficiencies existed at the Wuhan City Virological Institute even before the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic, which have been documented.
  • There are numerous direct references to a laboratory origin of the SARS-CoV-2 pathogen. For example, a young female scientist at the virology institute in Wuhan is believed to have been the first to become infected. There are also numerous indications that as early as October 2019, the SARS-CoV-2 pathogen spread from the virological institute to the city of Wuhan and beyond. Furthermore, there are indications that the virological institute was investigated by the Chinese authorities in the first half of October 2019.

“The current coronavirus pandemic is not only dominating the current headlines, but will be with us for many years to come – not least because of the social and economic impact. For months, dealing with and managing the corona crisis has understandably been at the forefront of issues in politics and the media. However, the critical science-based examination of the question of the origin of the current pandemic is already of great importance today, because only on the basis of this knowledge can adequate precautions be taken to minimize the probability of similar pandemics occurring in the future,” says Prof. Dr. Roland Wiesendanger.

The study was completed in January 2021 and initially distributed and discussed in scientific circles. The publication is now intended to stimulate a broad discussion, particularly with regard to the ethical aspects of so-called “gain-of-function” research, which makes pathogens more infectious, dangerous and deadly for humans. “This can no longer remain a matter for a small group of scientists, but must urgently become the subject of a public debate,” says the study’s author.

Read the full hundred-page study in German on ResearchGate →

∗∗∗

Meanwhile… two weeks after World Health Organization wrapped up its junket to Wuhan, they’re doubling down on the natural origin hypothesis and have added two species to the list of potential crossover hosts; ferret badgers and rabbits, which ‘could have played a role’ in the spread to humans. Of course, they’d need to find one in the wild that can carry SARS-Cov-2 and infect a human.

According to the very conflicted Peter Daszak of the EcoHealth Alliance, who was on the WHO trip to Wuhan (and participated in coronavirus research at the Wuhan Institute of Virology after the Obama administration cut US funding for it in 2015), the genetic experts who have been creating chimeric coronaviruses to better infect humans couldn’t have possibly been the source.

END

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

UK

Far reaching decision as Uber drivers are now classified as workers. They are entitled to minimum wage and holiday pay. If this decision travels to the rest of the globe, then Uber goes bust.

(zerohedge)

British Supreme Court Rules Uber Drivers Are Workers, Not Self-Employed

 
FRIDAY, FEB 19, 2021 – 6:06

In a landmark decision that marks the close of a years-long legal battle, the British Supreme Court has just ruled that Uber must classify its drivers as workers instead of the ‘self-employed’ designation that currently applies to Uber drivers in the US, Europe and elsewhere.

The ruling already looks set to jack up Uber’s labor costs, as Uber drivers in the UK are now officially entitled to minimum wage and holiday pay. Uber’s loss at the hands of Britain’s Supreme Court is the last leg of a lengthy legal battle: Uber appealed to the British Supreme Court after losing three earlier rounds.

Two former drivers-turned-activists celebrated the ruling: James Farrar and Yaseen Aslam – the two men who originally won an employment tribunal decision against Uber back in October 2016, told the BBC they were “thrilled and relieved” to hear the news.

“I think it’s a massive achievement in a way that we were able to stand up against a giant,” Aslam (who is also president of the App Drivers & Couriers Union) told the BBC.

“We didn’t give up and we were consistent – no matter what we went through emotionally or physically or financially, we stood our ground.”

Uber initially appealed against the employment tribunal decision mentioned above, but the UK’s Employment Appeal Tribunal upheld the ruling in November 2017.

After that, the ride hailing colossus took its case to the British High Court, which upheld the ruling again in December 2018.

In a post-decision statement, Uber said it doesn’t automatically reclassify all of its UK drivers, and noted that since the case was filed it had added some driver benefits like insurance for sickness and injury.

“We are committed to doing more and will now consult with every active driver across the U.K. to understand the changes they want to see,” said Jamie Heywood, Uber’s regional chief for Northern and Eastern Europe.

Per the BBC, the key point made in the court’s ruling is this: Uber must consider its drivers “workers” from the time they log on to the app, until they log off.

Activists and some progressive economists celebrated the decision, claiming that “this is a win-win-win for drivers, passengers and cities. It means Uber now has the correct economic incentives not to oversupply the market with too many vehicles and too many drivers,” according to James Farrar, ADCU’s general secretary.

“The upshot of that oversupply has been poverty, pollution and congestion.”

To be sure, questions remain about how the new classification system will work. But for better or worse, Uber is now stuck with it, as there is no higher court in Britain than the Supremes (just like in the US).

The question is, will Uber now launch a Prop 22-like campaign in the UK?

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

IRAN//USA

Stupid move:  Biden tells Iran that they are ready for an EU sponsored talks

(zerohedge)

In Major Nuke Deal Breakthrough, Biden Tells Iran ‘We’re Ready For EU-Sponsored Talks’

 
THURSDAY, FEB 18, 2021 – 19:00

A first potential major breakthrough which so far has proved elusive after Biden has stalled on prior promises to ‘immediately’ restore US participation in the Iran nuclear deal, the United States appears to have just changed its tune. An admin official has said ‘maximum pressure’ could come to an end if Iran agrees to engage through a broader EU-hosted meeting base in the P5+1 framework.

The United States would be ready to hold talks with Iran if the European Union extended an invitation, a senior U.S. official said on Thursday, sketching out a possible diplomatic path to restore the 2015 Iran nuclear deal,” Reuters reports late in the day Thursday.

Further the official said the administration’s “goal is to get both sides back into compliance with the nuclear deal” and has extended the invitation to Iran: “Let’s talk about how to get there.”

Via Shutterstock/Office of the Supreme Leader

Previously the administration appeared to balk when initially just such an offer was made two weeks ago by Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif for the European Union to coordinate a piecemeal approach for dropping sanctions and Iran’s return to conformity.

But now Reuters has cited a top admin official to say “We are ready to show up if such a meeting were to take place” – in what’s clearly an invitation for Iran to signal the same.

Iran has indicated it will begin blocking IAEA inspectors from its nuclear facilities starting Sunday, February 21st, hence this new scramble out of the Biden administration to find a way forward before this next escalation measure that many fear would be hard to roll back takes effect. Both the US and Europe are warning against such a step.

The US has lately been in direct talks with allies Britain, France, and Germany – the key European signatories to the JCPOA – and it appears they’ve finally struck up a common strategy in getting the frozen communications between Tehran and Washington going again.

At the start of this month State Department spokesman Ned Price appeared to shrug off EU-backed talks when asked directly about Tehran’s expressed willingness to engage through the Europeans. He said there are “many steps” that had to be taken before engaging “directly with Iran” and before the US is willing to “entertain any sort of proposal.” Later the White House appeared to walk back the comments.

The central point of controversy since Biden took office was over who would “move first”. The Biden White House has been adamant thus far that Iran must return to compliance with enrichment caps and walking back breaches of the terms of the JCPOA. At the same time Iran has pointed to US hypocrisy of backing out of the deal in the first place (under Trump in May 2018) but now demanding Iran’s conformity. Iran has been adamant that all sanctions be dropped.

end
IRAN//USA
Iran snubs the USA:  no talks unless Biden unwinds Iranian sanctions
(zerohedge)

Iran Snubs Biden Overture For Nuclear Talks: “LIFT Sanctions, We WILL Respond”

 
FRIDAY, FEB 19, 2021 – 10:35

Iran has snubbed the White House’s signaling on Thursday that it’s ready to sit down for EU-sponsored talks toward restoring the 2015 nuclear deal. For the first time in the Biden administration a senior US official said “We are ready to show up if such a meeting were to take place” – in what’s clearly an invitation for Iran to signal the same. But Tehran has slapped it down, sticking with its line that Washington must begin dialing back sanctions first.

Bloomberg reports on the latest Friday after a flurry of statements out of the US administration which appeared to belatedly extend an open hand: “Iran said the U.S. must first return to the 2015 nuclear deal and lift sanctions if it wants talks with the Islamic Republic, appearing to snub an effort by the Biden administration to begin direct discussions before officially rejoining the accord.”

Iran’s foreign ministry then took the opportunity to remind the world that there was a perfectly good nuclear deal in place to which Iran was in full compliance but that “Trump left the room and tried to blow it up” – in reference to the US pulling out of the deal in May 2018.

“Because of US withdrawal from JCPOA, there is NO P5+1. It is now ONLY Iran and P4+1,” government spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh tweeted in response Friday.

“US must Act: LIFT sanctions. We WILL respond,” he added. Biden’s strategy has been to demand Iran return to conformity with uranium enrichment caps first – before there’s any talk of sanctions relief – however, Tehran has been consistent in saying it’s for Washington to move first (by lifting sanctions).

Time is running out and the Biden White House is suddenly realizing it’s painted itself into a corner. Though there was big talk on the campaign trail about reversing Trump’s Iran policies, the reality is nothing has changed. 

Iran has indicated it will begin blocking IAEA inspectors from its nuclear facilities starting Sunday, February 21st, hence this new scramble out of the Biden administration to find a way forward before this next escalation measure that many fear would be hard to roll back after it takes effect. Both the US and Europe are warning against such a step.

 

Iranian Presidency Office via AP/Politico 

So far the Biden admin has introduced meager steps such as dropping travel restrictions on top level Iranian diplomats Trump had enacted, as well as abandoning the push for “snapback” sanctions at the UN.

This appeared an initial step toward softening this major attempt at an overture:

On Thursday, the Biden administration said it would be willing to meet with Iran to discuss a “diplomatic way forward” in efforts to return to the nuclear deal, a first step toward easing tensions.

The United States would accept an invitation from the European Union High Representative to attend a meeting of the P5+1 and Iran to discuss a diplomatic way forward on Iran’s nuclear program,” State Department spokesman Ned Price said in a statement. The P5+1 refers to the participants in the nuclear deal with Iran: China, Russia, France, the U.K., the U.S and Germany.

The US has lately been in direct talks with allies Britain, France, and Germany – the key European signatories to the JCPOA – and it appears they’ve finally struck up a common strategy in getting the frozen communications between Tehran and Washington going again. 

But perhaps seizing upon the sense of confusion and raging policy debate within the Biden White House on the issue, the Iranians are seeking to be in the driver’s seat after patiently enduring Trump’s ‘maximum pressure’.

END

ISRAEL/USA
Biden, after a long sleep finally accepts his first call from the only democracy in the middle east
Israel.
(zerohedge)

Biden Finally Accepts First Call From Netanyahu After Month-Long Delay

 
THURSDAY, FEB 18, 2021 – 21:00

After going weeks since his inauguration without answering Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s request for a customary first call, with growing concern in Tel Aviv over what was increasingly looking like an intentional snub, on Wednesday President Biden finally spoke with the Israeli leader. Though few details were made public as to the details of the content discussed, the conversation “was very friendly and warm and lasted about an hour,” according to the prime minister’s office.

As for the White House, Biden “affirmed his personal history of steadfast commitment to Israel’s security and conveyed his intent to strengthen all aspects of the U.S.-Israel partnership, including our strong defense cooperation,” according to a statement.

 

Via Jerusalem Post/Israeli PM’s office

Each side’s press readout indicated they dealt with Israel’s regional security concerns – at the top of the list being Iran – as well as the COVID-19 response, and recent normalization efforts between Israel and Arab countries, which was brokered under the Trump admin.

Likely Netanyahu pressed Biden further on not restoring the 2015 Iran nuclear (JPOA) given the Islamic Republic’s recent breaches of the agreement. Tehran has lately urged that Washington must drop sanctions first before it acts to come under compliance. The Israelis think it’s all toward shielding an underlying nuclear weapons program, as opposed to developing peaceful nuclear energy.

And the White House said further on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, “He underscored the importance of working to advance peace throughout the region, including between Israelis and Palestinians. Together, they affirmed their shared interest in continued strategic cooperation to confront the many challenges facing the region.”

Of course, the estimated $3.8 billion in annual military aid is still flowing uninterrupted

Last week and into the days preceding the belated call, Israeli media was rife with speculation over what this means for the future of Israeli-US relations.

“Biden and his aides aim to tell Netanyahu, ‘You’re nothing special,'” geopolitical analyst Yossi Melman previously wrote in the Israeli daily Haaretz. “‘The personal connection and chemistry you had with Donald Trump not only fail to advance your standing in Washington, they’re an obstacle,'” the report last week speculated.

The further irony was that Netanyahu over the same period in which Biden was not bothering to pick up the phone had no less than three phone calls from Vladimir Putin.

end
SYRIA/
The quagmire inside Syria:  Turkey in the North, Isis in the centre surrounding the Syrian Army who is supported by Russia.
The USA “protects” Syrian oil fields but stumbles as Turkey fights the PKK in the North.  Israel fights the Syrian regime as they want to depose Assad.
quite a mess and we can thank Hillary and Obama for this
(zerohedge)

The Syrian Arab Army Between The Hammer And The Anvil

 
FRIDAY, FEB 19, 2021 – 5:00

Submitted by South Front,

The resurgence of ISIS has become fact. There can be no denying it or acting as if it’s still an impending event.

 

Terrorist activities are becoming bolder, as evidenced by ISIS cells ambushing another Syrian Arab Army (SAA) unit in the Homs countryside.

According to the terrorist group’s own information agency, five SAA soldiers were killed in the attack.

Just days earlier, ISIS attacked three phosphate mine posts, which were being defended by Iranian-backed forces, to the east of the town of Khunayfis in southern Homs.

ISIS has ramped up the intensity and frequency of its attacks in central Syria. They are attempting to spread their influence back into the areas of their former self-proclaimed Caliphate. So far, the terrorists haven’t been able to push all that far towards the Hama-Aleppo-Raqqa triangle and western Deir Ezzor.

This could just be a matter of time, however, since they now appear both revitalized and re-equipped.

The SAA and its Russian support are attempting to contain them, so far with relative success.

ISIS is pushing towards the province of Raqqa, and ultimately the city of Raqqa, both of which are currently under the control of the SDF, while Turkish proxies operate in the surrounding area. They are also targetting the SAA and sometimes Russia’s forces.

On February 17th, Turkish forces destroyed a truck of the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) in the northern Raqqa countryside. The SAA are present there to monitor the ceasefire and didn’t respond.

Another push, however, could be coming from northwestern Syria – from Idlib. Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the ruling group in the region, has just released US journalist and propagandist Bilal Abdul Kareem.

The propagandist, who had been detained because of a conflict with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, was released as a result of a plea from a group of Atimah locals and public figures.

This could potentially lead to a more united terrorist front in Idlib, which might possibly receive U.S. support. The Biden Administration recently started talking about “moderate opposition” again, claiming that HTS has reformed and is no longer affiliated to al-Qaeda.

The Syrian Arab Army is caught between the hammer and the anvil. The government is attempting to consolidate power and contain ISIS in the central region, HTS and other terrorists in the northwest, and Turkish proxies in the northeast.

On February 17th, a slight spark of hope came from the Russian-brokered prisoner exchange between Syria and Israel, but this does not mean that tensions between the sides will be calming in any significant way.

A de-escalation with Israel will only be possible when Tel Aviv drops its primary policy of destabilizing and undermining the sovereignty of Syria, in order to hamper Iran’s influence.

 

6.Global Issues

I would stay away from the Johnson and Johnson vaccine. The one vaccine that looks promising is the Canadian one from Quebec City, MEDICAGO.  The vaccine is plant derived and it is around 90% effective.  They have been working on this for over 10 years.  (all coronaviruses).  It seems very very safe.

(zerohedge)

Vaccine Supply Woes: Johnson & Johnson Jab May Require More Than 1 Dose To Be Effective

BY TYLER DURDEN
THURSDAY, FEB 18, 2021 – 17:40

As the US awaits the FDA’s decision on whether to approve JNJ’s COVID vaccine (the committee to review the trial data will convene next week), we’re hearing more negative reports suggesting JNJ vaccine supplies won’t be nearly as prevalent as the US government had hoped.

And now what’s more, White House COVD Advisor Andy Slavitt just said the Johnson and Johnson vaccine might not end up being a one dose vaccine. The company is testing, right now, the effectiveness with a booster, according to Fox Business reporter Edward Lawrence.

Later, Dr. Anthony Fauci confirmed that JNJ was working on a two-dose version of the vaccine, although he insisted the company was on track to deliver 100MM doses this year.

We’re still waiting to see if Fox Business’s report will be confirmed by other media organizations (we suspect the White House will mostly ignore it until then), but Slavitt has already struggled in recent TV interviews to explain certain disparities between states’ COVID response.

While Bill Gates promotes the JNJ and Novavax jabs during interviews, the NYT reports that even with the JNJ jab expected to be approved for emergency use early next month, the US will have only “a few million” doses on hand for distribution. The paper cited a “key White House advisor” as its source.

One of the JNJ jab’s major advantages over competitors by Pfizer and Moderna was supposed to be that it was only one dose instead of two, and can stay viable in a refrigerator for three months, while the other two must be kept frozen.

With doubts growing about the availability and, now, potency of JNJ’s jab, this could put even more pressure on doctors to “endorse” delays of second COVID vaccination doses, which the US government appears on the verge of doing.

After all, President Biden has vaccination targets that need to be hit, regardless of what’s going on over at JNJ.

END
 
Coronavirus update/Sweden
 
Sweden’s death toll is plummeting…..much faster than the UK which ws fully locked down.
(Watson/Summit News)
 

‘No Lockdown’-Sweden Sees COVID Deaths Plummet Quicker Than ‘Fully-Locked-Down’ UK

 
FRIDAY, FEB 19, 2021 – 6:10

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

While the media in the UK is asserting lockdown measures caused COVID-19 deaths and cases to plummet, Sweden saw an even greater drop off in deaths despite enforcing comparatively minor restrictions.

This morning, UK broadcaster Sky News declared “Lockdown is working! COVID-19 infection rate plummets in England.”

“One of the largest and most authoritative coronavirus surveys has found that infections are quickly falling in England, confirming that lockdown is working to suppress the virus,” states the report.

The report claims that vaccines aren’t a factor in the reduction in deaths and cases because they are observed across all age groups.

However, as Dr. Eli David highlighted, COVID deaths in Sweden began dropping off even sooner without the need for harsh lockdown measures.

“The strict lockdown in the UK was so effective that it stopped the spread of Covid in Sweden as well,” joked David.

In comparison to the UK, which imposed a full national lockdown in early January, Sweden refused to follow suit, only encouraging voluntary social distancing measures.

As we highlighted last October, health authorities in the Scandinavian country refused to follow the rest of Europe by imposing new coronavirus lockdown measures on their population, arguing that those beset by loneliness and misery of being isolated have suffered enough.

Despite all this, health authorities in Sweden are now considering a full lockdown for the first time due to what they say is a rise in cases over the last week.

“The proposals would let the government close shopping centers, gyms and restaurants, as well as impose new restrictions on theme parks, zoos and museums. There will be a new system to control social gatherings and public events,” reports Bloomberg.

*  *  *

New limited edition merch now available! Click here. In the age of mass Silicon Valley censorship It is crucial that we stay in touch. I need you to sign up for my free newsletter here. Support my sponsor – Turbo Force – a supercharged boost of clean energy without the comedown. Also, I urgently need your financial support here.

END

Remember the words of Luc Montagnier who stated that the man made virus is unstable and that it will eventually morph into a common cold

John Hopkins prof. sees USA herd immunity by April

Johns Hopkins Prof Sees US Herd Immunity By April, Fauci Fearmongers 2022 For ‘Return To Normality’

 
FRIDAY, FEB 19, 2021 – 9:15

Be afraid, be very afraid (oh, and do not push back against any plans to spend trillions by the government)… that appears to be the message from Fauci and his friends in the Biden admin.

After months of suggesting that life could start to feel “normal” again this fall – if the vaccine rollout worked as planned – Fauci in an interview with LA Times Today this week gave a new prediction.

“Hopefully, by the time we start entering 2022, we really will have a degree of normality that will approximate the kind of normality we’ve been used to,” Fauci said.

That was a departure from previous predictions, including remarks he gave at conference hosted by the Association of Performing Arts Professionals just last month.

“If everything goes right… by the time we get to the early to mid-fall, you can have people feeling safe performing onstage as well as people in the audience,” he said on Jan. 9.

Biden had clearly gotten the memo before going on stage at a CNN Town Hall on Tuesday, suggesting that life could feel normal again in “Christmas.”

But, there is a silver lining – that will likely be rapidly censored and removed from the narrative – as a Johns Hopkins surgeon, Dr. Marty Makary, penned an Op-ed in the WSJ this morning saying that we will have herd immunity by April.

Experts should level with the public about the good news…” exclaims Makary (who is likely on the verge of getting canceled), as he cites the “miracle” 77% drop in cases over the past 6 weeks and that testing likely only captured about 10% – 25% of infections; he extrapolates that to saying 55% of Americans have natural immunity (and add to that the 15% of Americans that have been vaccinated). Additionally, he cites Scott Gottlieb, former FDA commissioner, who believes that 250mm doses of the vaccine will have be delivered to 150mm people by the end of March.

“There is reason to think the country is racing toward an extremely low level of infection.

As more people have been infected, most of whom have mild or no symptoms, there are fewer Americans left to be infected.

At the current trajectory, I expect Covid will be mostly gone by April, allowing Americans to resume normal life.”

Critically, Makary explains the recent plunge in cases, hospitalizations, and deaths is not policy-related (no matter how much the politicians and their media lackeys push that narrative):

 “…the consistent and rapid decline in daily cases since Jan. 8 can be explained only by natural immunity. Behavior didn’t suddenly improve over the holidays; Americans traveled more over Christmas than they had since March. Vaccines also don’t explain the steep decline in January. Vaccination rates were low and they take weeks to kick in.”

Assuming his view is the correct view, JPMorgan notes that the first hurdle is politicians and their willingness to remove restrictions.

The primary one is getting kids back to school. This would allow some parents to re-enter the workforce and drive some mobility.

This is not a binary effect though.

We still need to repair the “economic scarring” which will show up primarily in private businesses. There are businesses that will still fail and those that have already shuttered that need to give way to a new enterprise.

One metric to track in macro data is Services PMI. Manufacturing has already rebounded by the shift to Services is one effect that economists will view to check the on-going inertia of the reopening.

While it may be too late in the school year to have schools re-open on a large scale, if the US has a promise that summer camps and schools re-open this summer and fall, then that should have a material impact on sentiment and the economy.

Lastly, vaccines are now being tested on children (CBS; NYT). Positive results here mean that we may have approval for children, perhaps as young as 6, by this summer. Again, this is positive for the re-opening & reflation themes.

Combining all of these factor together, this would reignite the Reflation theme.

All of which is good news for the economy, but Makary‘s concluding paragraph says everything about the ‘politicization’ of the virus in America and why this ‘good news’ – both health-wise and economy-wise – may not be allowed in the national narrative:

“Some medical experts privately agreed with my prediction that there may be very little Covid-19 by April but suggested that I not to talk publicly about herd immunity because people might become complacent and fail to take precautions or might decline the vaccine. But scientists shouldn’t try to manipulate the public by hiding the truth. As we encourage everyone to get a vaccine, we also need to reopen schools and society to limit the damage of closures and prolonged isolation. Contingency planning for an open economy by April can deliver hope to those in despair and to those who have made large personal sacrifices.

end

Special thanks to Doug C for sending this important paper to us highlighting the slippery slope from censoring “disinformation” and silencing truth 
 
 
market rigging??:)
 

Techno-Censorship: The Slippery Slope from Censoring ‘Disinformation’ to Silencing Truth

By John W. Whitehead & Nisha Whitehead
February 17, 2021

“If liberty means anything at all, it means the right to tell people what they do not want to hear.”― George Orwell

This is the slippery slope that leads to the end of free speech as we once knew it.

In a world increasingly automated and filtered through the lens of artificial intelligence, we are finding ourselves at the mercy of inflexible algorithms that dictate the boundaries of our liberties.

Once artificial intelligence becomes a fully integrated part of the government bureaucracy, there will be little recourse: we will be subject to the intransigent judgments of techno-rulers.

This is how it starts.

Martin Niemöller’s warning about the widening net that ensnares us all still applies.

“First they came for the socialists, and I did not speak out—because I was not a socialist. Then they came for the trade unionists, and I did not speak out— because I was not a trade unionist. Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out—because I was not a Jew. Then they came for me—and there was no one left to speak for me.

In our case, however, it started with the censors who went after extremists spouting so-called “hate speech,” and few spoke out—because they were not extremists and didn’t want to be shamed for being perceived as politically incorrect.

Then the internet censors got involved and went after extremists spouting “disinformation” about stolen elections, the Holocaust, and Hunter Biden, and few spoke out—because they were not extremists and didn’t want to be shunned for appearing to disagree with the majority.

By the time the techno-censors went after extremists spouting “misinformation” about the COVID-19 pandemic and vaccines, the censors had developed a system and strategy for silencing the nonconformists. Still, few spoke out.

Eventually, “we the people” will be the ones in the crosshairs.

At some point or another, depending on how the government and its corporate allies define what constitutes “extremism, “we the people” might all be considered guilty of some thought crime or other.

When that time comes, there may be no one left to speak out or speak up in our defense.

Whatever we tolerate now—whatever we turn a blind eye to—whatever we rationalize when it is inflicted on others, whether in the name of securing racial justice or defending democracy or combatting fascism, will eventually come back to imprison us, one and all.

Watch and learn.

We should all be alarmed when prominent social media voices such as Donald TrumpAlex JonesDavid Icke and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. are censored, silenced and made to disappear from Facebook, Twitter, YouTube and Instagram for voicing ideas that are deemed politically incorrect, hateful, dangerous or conspiratorial.

The question is not whether the content of their speech was legitimate.

The concern is what happens after such prominent targets are muzzled. What happens once the corporate techno-censors turn their sights on the rest of us?

It’s a slippery slope from censoring so-called illegitimate ideas to silencing truth. Eventually, as George Orwell predicted, telling the truth will become a revolutionary act.

We are on a fast-moving trajectory.

Already, there are calls for the Biden administration to appoint a “reality czar” in order to tackle disinformation, domestic extremism and the nation’s so-called “reality crisis.”

Knowing what we know about the government’s tendency to define its own reality and attach its own labels to behavior and speech that challenges its authority, this should be cause for alarm across the entire political spectrum.

Here’s the point: you don’t have to like Trump or any of the others who are being muzzled, nor do you have to agree or even sympathize with their views, but to ignore the long-term ramifications of such censorship would be dangerously naïve.

As Matt Welch, writing for Reason, rightly points out, “Proposed changes to government policy should always be visualized with the opposing team in charge of implementation.

In other words, whatever powers you allow the government and its corporate operatives to claim now, for the sake of the greater good or because you like or trust those in charge, will eventually be abused and used against you by tyrants of your own making.

As Glenn Greenwald writes for The Intercept:

The glaring fallacy that always lies at the heart of pro-censorship sentiments is the gullible, delusional belief that censorship powers will be deployed only to suppress views one dislikes, but never one’s own views… Facebook is not some benevolent, kind, compassionate parent or a subversive, radical actor who is going to police our discourse in order to protect the weak and marginalized or serve as a noble check on mischief by the powerful. They are almost always going to do exactly the opposite: protect the powerful from those who seek to undermine elite institutions and reject their orthodoxies. Tech giants, like all corporations, are required by law to have one overriding objective: maximizing shareholder value. They are always going to use their power to appease those they perceive wield the greatest political and economic power.

Welcome to the age of technofascism.

Clothed in tyrannical self-righteousness, technofascism is powered by technological behemoths (both corporate and governmental) working in tandem to achieve a common goal.

Thus far, the tech giants have been able to sidestep the First Amendment by virtue of their non-governmental status, but it’s a dubious distinction at best. Certainly, Facebook and Twitter have become the modern-day equivalents of public squares, traditional free speech forums, with the internet itself serving as a public utility.

But what does that mean for free speech online: should it be protected or regulated?

When given a choice, the government always goes for the option that expands its powers at the expense of the citizenry’s. Moreover, when it comes to free speech activities, regulation is just another word for censorship.

Right now, it’s trendy and politically expedient to denounce, silence, shout down and shame anyone whose views challenge the prevailing norms, so the tech giants are lining up to appease their shareholders.

This is the tyranny of the majority against the minority—exactly the menace to free speech that James Madison sought to prevent when he drafted the First Amendment to the Constitution—marching in lockstep with technofascism.

With intolerance as the new scarlet letter of our day, we now find ourselves ruled by the mob.

Those who dare to voice an opinion or use a taboo word or image that runs counter to the accepted norms are first in line to be shamed, shouted down, silenced, censored, fired, cast out and generally relegated to the dust heap of ignorant, mean-spirited bullies who are guilty of various “word crimes” and banished from society.

For example, a professor at Duquesne University was fired for using the N-word in an academic context. To get his job back, Gary Shank will have to go through diversity training and restructure his lesson plans.

This is what passes for academic freedom in America today.

If Americans don’t vociferously defend the right of a minority of one to subscribe to, let alone voice, ideas and opinions that may be offensive, hateful, intolerant or merely different, then we’re going to soon find that we have no rights whatsoever (to speak, assemble, agree, disagree, protest, opt in, opt out, or forge our own paths as individuals).

No matter what our numbers might be, no matter what our views might be, no matter what party we might belong to, it will not be long before “we the people” constitute a powerless minority in the eyes of a power-fueled fascist state driven to maintain its power at all costs.

We are almost at that point now.

The steady, pervasive censorship creep that is being inflicted on us by corporate tech giants with the blessing of the powers-that-be threatens to bring about a restructuring of reality straight out of Orwell’s 1984, where the Ministry of Truth polices speech and ensures that facts conform to whatever version of reality the government propagandists embrace.

Orwell intended 1984 as a warning. Instead, it is being used as a dystopian instruction manual for socially engineering a populace that is compliant, conformist and obedient to Big Brother.

Nothing good can come from techno-censorship.

Again, to quote Greenwald:

Censorship power, like the tech giants who now wield it, is an instrument of status quo preservation. The promise of the internet from the start was that it would be a tool of liberation, of egalitarianism, by permitting those without money and power to compete on fair terms in the information war with the most powerful governments and corporations. But just as is true of allowing the internet to be converted into a tool of coercion and mass surveillance, nothing guts that promise, that potential, like empowering corporate overlords and unaccountable monopolists to regulate and suppress what can be heard.

As I make clear in my book Battlefield America: The War on the American People, these internet censors are not acting in our best interests to protect us from dangerous, disinformation campaigns. They’re laying the groundwork to preempt any “dangerous” ideas that might challenge the power elite’s stranglehold over our lives.

Therefore, it is important to recognize the thought prison that is being built around us for what it is: a prison with only one route of escape—free thinking and free speaking in the face of tyranny.

WC: 1562

ABOUT JOHN W. WHITEHEAD

Constitutional attorney and author John W. Whitehead is founder and president of The Rutherford Institute. His new book Battlefield America: The War on the American People  is available at www.amazon.com. Whitehead can be contacted at johnw@rutherford.org.

Publication Guidelines / Reprint Permission

end

Michael Every on the key big stories of the day

(Michael Every..)

Rabobank: We Officially Have Central Planning With No Plan

 
FRIDAY, FEB 19, 2021 – 9:34

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Nothing Ad(d)s Up

Good morning and Happy Friday – except to those hoping to read any parts of this Daily quoted in the news via Facebook in Australia. Sorry Aussies: you are on the front line against yet another economic behemoth of the early 21st century, and once again there is a very short queue of countries behind you offering public support. A new law about to be introduced Down Under means social media giants either pay up for the news they carry to compensate for ad revenue lost to the actual media (“What, us pay for content?!”)…or they don’t carry news at all. Google struck a deal, and Facebook struck Australia off. Australians –and then who next?– will have to go back to using Facebook for pretending that their lives are infinitely better than they really are, and for sharing the really important stuff like selfies, and pictures of cakes, and silly cats. Of course, given a video of a US lawyer who looked like a cat was one of the only unifying things to have happened on social media in a long time, perhaps this might be depolarizing – unless there are people out there with really strong views on frosting vs. no frosting, etc.

So it’s nothing/ads up: and it’s more broadly that ‘nothing adds up’. Indeed, just as US weekly jobless claims spike back to 816K again, we heard US Treasury Secretary Yellen reiterate that “full employment” is achievable in 2022 despite a real unemployment rate of 10%.

  • First, that means US payrolls growth of 500K every month until the end of 2022. What is going to prompt that? Yes, dealing with Covid – but that won’t stop the post-Covid structural changes that are inevitably going to have an impact on lots of jobs. Yes, fiscal stimulus – but the one Yellen offers creates no jobs directly, just a short-term sugar rush that some will save, not spend. For markets to believe that will achieve *genuine* full employment where wages then rise is to believe that if you eat enough cake, you will get enough energy to run fast enough to burn off more calories than you took in – and to look so good in your next selfie you don’t need to Photoshop yourself to the point where you almost resemble a cat.
  • Second, Yellen stressed that jobs-creating infrastructure fiscal spending will be rolled out over “many years”. Does this administration, with the slimmest of Congressional majorities, have many years to realistically plan such stimulus over? What Congressional appetite will there be for another huge stimulus package focused on infrastructure when unemployment is already back at zero in 2022, as planned? The same ‘’many years” timeline is true for tax increases, says Yellen: does that mean she doesn’t back the bill to remove the carried-interest loophole here and now?
  • Third, the Fed –whom Yellen knows well!– have just pledged to keep rates on hold for many years too. So assuming we got full employment via 500K payrolls every month this year and next, the Fed apparently still wouldn’t raise rates for some years afterwards anyway(?) Presumably they are thinking that this is how one gets wages up within a “free market system”. And presumably this is why markets are thinking about wage inflation.

Yet this is **CENTRAL PLANNING WITH NO PLAN**. One does not have to be an advocate of MMT to see its promise to directly employ people to do something society wants is more logical than pouring trillions into markets –like candy scattered above ADHD kids, or chum into a school of sharks– and then expecting anything that creates long-lasting, high-paying employment to result (outside Wall Street).

The only part of the plan that seems clear is wild asset-price speculation, which is already ludicrous. Are we really going to have ‘many years’ of this ahead, with what we see today as just the starting base? The GameStop investigation underway in Congress seems to suggest some regulation at the retail level might be needed; but where are all the sensible adults as ADHD sharks let rip? Solemnly talking about ‘full employment’ and holding rates and ‘building back better’!

To repeat: for markets, the key issue is whether this snorting M&Ms strategy is going to be inflationary or not. Near term we can all see it is: longer term, it still seems far more asset than wages based – yet again.

Of course, even this does not add up alongside the Fed’s pledge to resolve deep-seated inequality in the US: how do more expensive food and homes do that, most so for the poorest families? Are they supposed to be renting out properties, rather than renting them, and living off their stock holdings, as Yellen suggested when she ran the Fed? (Based on the Bloomberg/Morning Consult survey, the government is indeed going to give money to some people to speculate with.)

None of this adds up either in that even IF this central planning with no plan were to work, we already see that markets are terrified of rising real yields at the longer end: “Give us reflation! But not inflation!” seems to be the cry. They don’t WANT things to actually normalise – just the liquidity.

And even that does not add up in that *if* yields do move higher, the Fed will very likely just step in and flatten the curve via YCC – and then the plan-free central planning is clear: keep eating the sugar until you get slimmer.

Equally, don’t read the news: just look at the cakes and silly cats, and taking those pouty selfies.

7. OIL ISSUES

end

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings FRIDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.2133 UP .0042 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS//CORONAVIRUS/PANDEMIC/TRUMP POSITIVE WITH VIRUS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /GREEN

USA/JAPAN YEN 105.33 DOWN 0.330 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.40040   UP   0.0037  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/

USA/CAN 1.2611 DOWN .0069 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  FRIDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL BY 24 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1718 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE UP 20.81 PTS OR .57% 

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 49.40 PTS OR .155 

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 1,42%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 49.40 PTS OR .16% 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 20.81 PTS OR .57% 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 1.28% 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 218.17  POINTS OR 0.72%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1773.35

silver:$27.04-

Early FRIDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 1.314% !!! UP 2 IN POINTS from THURSDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

The 30 yr bond yield 2.100 UP 2  IN BASIS POINTS from THURSDAY night.

USA dollar index early FRIDAY morning: 90.26 DOWN 33 CENT(S) from  THURSDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers FRIDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing  FRIDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.25% UP 1 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.11.%  UP 1   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.35%//UP 1 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:0.62 DOWN 4 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 27 points higher than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES TO –.31% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 0.93% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR FRIDAY

Closing currency crosses for FRIDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.2135  UP     .0044 or 44 basis points

USA/Japan: 105.57 DOWN 0883 OR YEN UP 8  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.4017 UP .0050 POUND UP 50  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar UP 80 basis points to 1.2611

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The USA/Yuan,  CNY: closed DOWN    ON SHORE  (DOWN)..AT 6.4869

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.750  (YUAN DOWN)..AT 6.4579

TURKISH LIRA:  6.96  EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.11%

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 4 IN basis points from THURSDAY at 1.334 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.129 UP 5 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 90.25 down 34  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for FRIDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 6.87  0.10%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 106.30 POINTS OR .77%

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 45.22 POINTS 0.79%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 108.30 POINTS or 1.35%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 214.48 POINTS OR 0.94%

WTI Oil price; 59.65 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 63.30 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE FALLS:    73.94  THE CROSS HIGHER BY 0.07 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE LOWER BY 7 BASIS PTS)

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES  TO –.531 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OILPRICE 4:30 PM :  59.07//

BRENT :  62.44

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD:  1.343..up 5 basis points…

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.139 up 5 basis points..

EURO/USA 1.2117 ( UP 25   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:105.46 DOWN .195 (YEN UP 20 BASIS POINTS/..

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 90.35 DOWN 24 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.4004 UP 36  POINTS

the Turkish lira close: 6.983

the Russian rouble 74.05   DOWN 0.19 Roubles against the uSA dollar. (DOWN 19 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.2621 UP 61 BASIS pts

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.32%

The Dow closed UP 0.98 POINTS OR 0.00%

NASDAQ closed DOWN 51.76 POINTS OR 0.38%


VOLATILITY INDEX:  21.61 CLOSED DOWN .88

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 0.182%//libor dropping like a stone

USA trading today in Graph Form

Bitcoin Breaks Records As Rates Surge & Reddit Stocks Slump, Santelli Rant Remembered

 
FRIDAY, FEB 19, 2021 – 16:01

Today is the anniversary of the pre-COVID peak in US equities (2/19/20). Things have gone just a little bit turbo since then…

Source: Bloomberg

Additionally, 12 years ago today, Rick Santelli unleashed some honest hell on the CNBC audience and unintentionally sparked The Tea Party movement…

“…this is America… how many of you people wanna pay for your neighbor’s mortgage who has an extra bathroom and can’t pay their bills…”

(fwd to around 1:00 for the real fun and games)

The big headlines this week were made in the three Bs – Bitcoin, Bonds, & Bullion:

The Good – Bitcoin exploded to new record highs this week, topping $55k…

Source: Bloomberg

The Bad – Bonds were battered this week, with the long-end up over 14bps (drastically steepening)…

Source: Bloomberg

And The Ugly – Gold Bullion saw its worst week since Thanksgiving, clubbed like a baby seal to 8-month lows as real yields exploded higher (and spot prices triggered a death cross)…

Source: Bloomberg

After a hopeful return from the long weekend, US stocks were generally lower on the week. Small Caps ripped back higher today, rescuing themselves from being the laggards on the week as Big Tech tumbled but the Dow clung to gains…

That’s 4 down-days in a row for the S&P 500

Did Small Caps hit their limit relative to big caps once again?

Source: Bloomberg

It was an ugly week for the original Reddit short-squeeze stocks as the “Game Stopped” hearing faded away…

Source: Bloomberg

BUMBL has stumbled…

TSLA lost $800…

VIX was higher on the week, with a mysterious bid hitting every time it dropped below 20…

Perhaps interesting for those calling for the bond ‘rout’ to get ‘rout’-ier – 10Y and 30Y yields have ripped up to the spike low yields from 2016…

Source: Bloomberg

Real yields soared this week – with 30Y real yields surging by their most since March 2020

Source: Bloomberg

back above 0 for the first time since June

Source: Bloomberg

And 10Y real yields started to fly higher…

Source: Bloomberg

Which is weighing big time on gold…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar round-tripped on the week to end only marginally higher

Source: Bloomberg

Most major cryptos were higher on the week but Ripple lagged…

Source: Bloomberg

We already noted Bitcoin, but Ethereum also broke to new record highs, testing up towards $2000 for the first time…

Source: Bloomberg

Amid all the carnage in Texas Nat Gas prices roundtripped on the week…

Oil ended the week unchanged after topping $62 (WTI) at its highs…

Gasoline prices ended higher on the week (the 13th weekly rise in the last 16 weeks)…

Silver significantly outperformed gold on the week…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, Bitcoin’s big surge this week has pushed its market cap above $1 trillion… beating TSLA to that mark!

Source: @BiancoResearch

making it the 8th biggest ‘asset’ in the world…

Source: 8marketcap

“Rat-poison-squared” indeed!

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 
 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA//This afternoon

Yields Soar, Sending 30Y Real Rates Positive Amid Overheating Panic: What Happens Next

 
FRIDAY, FEB 19, 2021 – 12:18

Earlier today we pointed out that after being frozen for almost a year

… real yields finally surged, and nowhere was this more visible than 30Y real rates (i.e., TIPS), which just rose above 0%…

… for the first time since June as 10Y real yields are suddenly exploding higher as breakevens slump.

And now that Real Rates have joined Breakevens (which have moved sharply higher on the spike in commodity prices and especially oil) in surging fast, concerns about a real (no pun intended) VaR shock are also rising.

As a reminder, and as we discussed recently, when it comes to VaR shocks – destabilizing, multiple-sigma events which lead to forced deleveraging among institutional investors who are forced to puke their “safe” assets – even more important than how high rates rise is how fast they do so. Which is why a recent Goldman note “If Real Yields Rise More Quickly” is suddenly very appropriate. This is what Goldman said:

Real yields near all-time lows, but risks in focus. Investors have become more focused on the potential for and risks of higher US real rates after the shift to unified Democratic control. Our forecasts are for modest increases in 10-year real yields through 2021, but it is worth considering the impact of a faster move.

Looking back and looking forward at potential drivers and impacts of rapidly rising real yields. We examine three episodes of rapid increases in real rates over the last 15 years and look at what drove asset performance over those periods. Then, we illustrate the estimated sensitivity of key assets to shifts in both real rates and the growth outlook and predict asset responses to scenarios under which real rates might rise sharply.

Responses to perceived shifts in monetary or fiscal policy alongside improving growth are the most likely catalysts for any larger real rate move today. Past episodes of real rate spikes have generally followed a period of significant real rate decline; have come against a backdrop of improving growth views; and have generally featured either a perceived shift in central bank policy or in fiscal policy.

For markets, it matters whether higher real rates are “growth” or “policy” driven. Asset market responses to higher real rates depend significantly on the source of the rates move. If improving growth expectations remain firm, the impact on US equities and credit is likely to be limited, even if the market experiences temporary anxiety. Shifts in real rates driven by expectations of more hawkish monetary policy are apt to be more damaging.

Broader market backdrop matters for asset responses too. The 2013 taper tantrum coincided with a sustained downshift in  Chinese growth. The sharp pressure on EM assets and commodity currencies over that period owes as much to that dynamic as to the impact of higher US real rates. By contrast, when real rates rose sharply in 2015 and especially in late 2016, markets were upgrading their views of China-linked assets.

Sensitivities to growth and real rates have shifted post-corona crisis. The response of US equity sectors and indices to growth and real rate shifts has been different in the coronacrisis than in the period before. While banks have remained consistent outperformers, the underperformance of tech-related stocks and other “high-duration” stocks during periods of sharply rising growth and real rate expectations is a recent phenomenon. While some of this shift may stem from the rotations specific to the post-corona reopening process, we expect the vulnerability of the Nasdaq/tech complex to higher real rates to persist for now.

Protection against large real rate increases available in rates and beyond. The simplest protection against higher rates comes in Treasury markets themselves, but tilting portfolios towards less rate-sensitive areas may also help. Both past episodes and our scenario analysis suggest that gold and $/JPY may also offer good optionality for scenarios in which real rates rise more quickly.

 
 

ii)Market data/USA

Inflation is now upon us!

Inflation Signals Soar To Record Highs Amid Mixed PMIs

 
FRIDAY, FEB 19, 2021 – 9:56

In the first glimpse of February economic sentiment, Markit has just released its survey data for the US services and manufacturing following rebounds in UK, EU, and Japanese data.

Despite the slump in ‘hard’ economic data (and weakness in recent labor market data), PMIs have risen to multi-year highs as hope becomes a strategy, and flash February data showed little reflection of reality with Services improving modestly (58.9 vs 58.3 prior, and 58.0 exp) and Manufacturing very modestly lower (58.5 vs 59.2 prior and 58.8 exp).

Source: Bloomberg

That is the highest Composite PMI since March 2015 and the US, for now, appears to be leading the world…

Commenting on the PMI data, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, said:

“Despite headwinds of COVID-19, extreme weather and record supply chain delays, US businesses reported the fastest output growth for almost six years in February.

“The data add to signs that the economy is enjoying a strong opening quarter to 2021, buoyed by additional stimulus and the partial reopening of the economy as virus related restrictions were eased on average across the country.

“Business sentiment remains buoyant, boosted by hopes of further stimulus and the vaccine roll out, but it’s disappointing to see this not yet translate into stronger jobs growth. Many service sector firms in particular remain reluctant to hire, cautious about adding to overheads.

“A concern is that firms costs have surged higher, driving selling prices for goods and services up at a survey record pace and hinting at a further increase in inflation.”

That last sentence is a little understating the matter.

  • Input costs across manufacturing and services soared higher as demand outstripped supply, rising at by far the steepest rate since comparable data were first available in 2009.
  • Service providers registered the steepest increase in cost burdens since October 2009, while manufacturers recorded the quickest rise since April 2011.
  • As a result, firms raised their selling prices at the sharpest rate on record (since October 2009), with panellists stating the increase was due to the partial pass-through of greater costs to clients.  
  • Substantial price increases for inputs such as PPE led to the fastest rise in cost burdens since data collection began in October 2009. That said, more encouraging demand conditions allowed firms to pass on a greater proportion of the cost increase to clients through a marked rise in selling prices. The rate of charge inflation was the second-fastest on record (behind only November 2020).

We are sure this is all just “transitory” and Mr.Powell will brush it off as nothing…

END

“We Have To Get More Inventory” – Existing Home Sales Unexpectedly Rise In January

 
FRIDAY, FEB 19, 2021 – 10:11

Despite the weather and disappointing labor market data, existing home sales jumped 0.6% MoM in January (far better than the 2.4% drop expected) to an annualized 6.69 million, after a downwardly revised 6.65 million in December.

Source: Bloomberg

The median selling price increased 14.1% from a year earlier to $303,900 in January, a record for the month.

There is a massive divergence in sales however as low priced home sales plunge (-28%) but million-dollar-plus home sales soar (+77%) with 38% of homes sold in January over $1mm

There were a record-low 1.04 million homes for sale last month, down 25.7% from a year earlier.

“We have to get more inventory,” Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, said on a call with reporters.

“Sales could be even higher,” if more homes were put on the market, he said.

Rather shockingly, properties remained on the market for just 21 days in January, compared with 43 days in the same month last year.

As a reminder, while home-construction declined in January for the first time in five months, permits to build single-family houses rose at the fastest pace since 2006.

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

GOP senators demand a probe into Cuomo’s handling of COVID death counts

(Planet Free Will News)

GOP Senators Demand Probe Into Cuomo’s “Possibly Criminal” Handling Of COVID Death Data

 
THURSDAY, FEB 18, 2021 – 20:00

Via Planet Free Will News,

A group of Republican Senators have penned a letter demanding a full investigation into the recent revelations that New York Governor Andrew Cuomo’s administration may have deliberately covered-up New York’s nursing home COVID-19 death toll.

“That so many people needlessly lost their lives because of the failed policies of Governor Cuomo’s administration – an administration that many have lauded over the past year – is tragic and deserves a full investigation and accounting,” reads the letter sent to Sen. Dick Durban (D-Ill), chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee.

The letter is signed by nine GOP Senate Judiciary Committee members, including Ted Cruz, Lindsey Graham, Chuck Grassley, Marsha Blackburn, John Cornyn, Mike Lee, Josh Hawley, Tom Cotton , and Thom Tillis .

Last week the New York Post reported that Cuomo top-aid, Melissa DeRosa, told a group of lawmakers that Governor Cuomo and his senior staff engaged in a deliberate cover-up of New York’s nursing home COVID-19 death numbers out of fear that it would be “used against us” by the Trump Justice Department.

“We were in a position where we weren’t sure if what we were going to give to the Department of Justice, or what we give to you guys, what we start saying, was going to be used against us while we weren’t sure if there was going to be an investigation,” DeRosa reportedly said during a private zoom call.

It was also revealed in a separate report by the Associated Press that the Cuomo administration sent over 9,000 elderly coronavirus patients back to their long-term care centers while the administration reported these facilities had only admitted 6,000 patients.

At the onset of the pandemic, a Cuomo directive ordered nursing homes to accept residents recovering from COVID-19 after they were discharged from hospitals, a decision many blame for spreading sickness and a high death toll among residents.

“These new revelations, however, that Governor Cuomo’s administration withheld information from the Department of Justice and intentionally misled federal officials to avoid political accountability is more than irresponsible: it is very possibly criminal,” the GOP letter goes on, adding:

“Those who deliberately withheld – or directed others to withhold – material information from the Department of Justice may be guilty of obstruction of justice, violating the False Claims Act, and numerous other criminal violations.”

The letter calls on Durbin to open an investigation and hold hearings on the matter because:

the “American people deserve to know the extent to which Governor Cuomo and his senior staff violated the civil rights of New York seniors, lied to the Department of Justice about their actions, and violated federal civil and criminal laws in the process.”

The GOP letter comes on the heels of reports claiming the FBI and US attorney’s office in Brooklyn have begun an investigation into the governor and his administration’s handling of nursing home death data. The investigation was opened shortly after Democratic state Assemblyman Ron Kim, whose uncle died of COVID-19 in a nursing home, accused the governor of threatening him over his criticism of the handling of state nursing homes during the pandemic.

end

AOC Demands “Full Investigation” Of Cuomo Nursing Home Coverup

 
FRIDAY, FEB 19, 2021 – 15:20

Now that President Trump is gone, Democrats are no longer circling the wagon around New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo and his nursing home scandal – which began last year after reports that COVID-positive patients were being housed in nursing homes, and most recently intensified after Cuomo aide Melissa DeRosa privately admitted to state lawmakers that they had deliberately concealed nursing home deaths out of fear they would be “used against us” by the Trump DOJ. 

Now, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) wants answers – writing in a Friday statement: “I support our state’s return to co-equal governance and stand with our local officials calling for a full investigation of the Cuomo administration’s handling of nursing homes during COVID-19.”

Thousands of vulnerable New Yorkers lost their lives in nursing homes throughout the pandemic. Their loved ones and the public deserve answers and transparency from their elected leadership, and the Secretary to the Governor’s remarks warrant a full investigation.”

According to the New York Post, Cuomo’s scandal intensified in recent days after State Assemblyman Ron Kim accused the governor of threatening to “destroy” him if he didn’t help contain the fallout from the political quagmire.

Kim was supported by a dozen state Assembly Democrats, who also publicly backed legislation seeking to strip Cuomo of his pandemic-related emergency powers.

“As a co-equal branch of government, the Legislature is well within its rights to seek oversight of executive action. In fact, we have a duty to seek that oversight,” the lawmakers wrote Thursday.

Cuomo’s mishandling of the crisis has sparked investigations by the FBI and the Eastern District of New York US Attorney’s office, according to the Post.

Meanwhile – CNN and MSNBC have devoted a sum total of 46 minutes on Ted Cruz’s ill-advised Cancun trip, and less than three minutes on Cuomo’s growing nursing home scandal, according to Fox News’ Joseph A. Wulfsohn.

end
TEXAS
Wow! get a load of these electrical bills that citizens in Texas must pay
(zerohedge)

Outages Morph Into Outrage As Texans Slapped With “Mind-Blowing” Power Bills

 
FRIDAY, FEB 19, 2021 – 8:35

The rolling blackouts that plunged up to 15 million Texans into darkness amid a historic cold snap are diminishing by the end of the week. About 188k customers were without power in the state on Friday morning. Days after power prices jumped from $50 per Megawatt to more than $9,000, the horror stories pour in for those who had power this week during grid chaos as they are mind-boggled how their energy bills skyrocketed. 

None of these horrifying power bill stories below should be a shock as we described to readers in the piece titled “Power Bills To The Moon: Chaos, Shock As Electricity Prices Across US Explode,” that this would happen.

Texans who were on a variable or indexed plans with power companies are only now reporting their bills have jumped hundreds of dollars, if not thousands of dollars for the month.

Royce Pierce told Newsweek he owes electric company, Griddy, $8,162.73 for his electricity usage this month. He said that’s a massive increase from his usual $387 bill. 

“It’s mind-blowing. I honestly didn’t believe the price at first,” Pierce said.

“It’s not a great feeling knowing that there is a looming bill that we just can’t afford.”

Pierce was one of the lucky ones who maintained power through the entire grid crisis, but it came at a steep cost.

“There is nothing we can do now. This is already an insane thing and I don’t care about the money when it comes to people’s health,” Pierce said, adding that if the virus pandemic hadn’t affected his work, “we could have taken care of this.”

Other horror stories of soaring power bills flood local television stations across the Lone Star State. When food and housing insecurities are incredibly high due to pandemic job loss, many folks in Texas who were on variable power plans could be financially devastated.

WFAA Dallas spoke with one person who said:

“Mine is over $1,000…not sure how…700 square foot apt I have been keeping at 60 degrees.”

One couple said:

“When your electric company tells you to switch but there has been a hold on switching for over a week now. Using as little as possible 1300 sq ft house and this is my bill. . How is this fair. I only paid $1200 for the whole 2020 year. “

A tweet was accompanied by a screenshot of their bill that now stands at $3,800 for the month.

Ty Williams told WFAA that his average electric bill is around $660 per month. He said it now stands at $17,000.

Williams wondered: “How in the world can anyone pay that? I mean you go from a couple of hundred dollars a month… there’s absolutely no way…it makes no sense.” 

… and in case you were wondering, OilPrice.com ran the numbers of how much it would cost to charge a Tesla in Texas earlier this week. While a regular charge costs around $18 using a Level 1 or Level 2 charger at home, estimates showed that the surge in power prices would have cost $900.

So the Texas power outage has morphed into outrage for customers who had variable power rates. We don’t want to speculate, but if small and medium-sized enterprises were on these plans (unhedged) – their bills could be absolutely devastating. Hopefully, larger companies hedged against the spike in power rates; if not, their energy for this month could be astronomical.

end
TEXAS
Pandemic precautions no doubt caused the deaths of homeless individuals as they froze to death in the cold
(zerohedge)

“Pandemic Precautions” Left Some Texas Shelters Closed As Homeless Froze To Death

 
FRIDAY, FEB 19, 2021 – 6:45

“For over six hours, a long line of people in search of shelter stood huddled together waiting for the doors of the George R. Brown convention center to open,” local Houston media reported of the chaos that unfolded earlier this week as Texas temperatures plunged to deadly levels.

The homeless in Houston as well as in other states hit by the monstrous winter storm and polar vortex which pummeled up to two-thirds of the nation this week in many cases barely escaped the streets in time to avoid exposure, also as social services and charitable centers themselves struggled to stay properly staffed or even open given the widespread power outages and water infrastructure problems. But a number of homeless also died in circumstances that could have likely been easily averted.

 

Record low temperatures this week in Oklahoma City, OK. Via Reuters

As of Thursday night the death toll nationally from the winter storm which most intensely impacted the unprepared southern states topped 40 killed – some among these were homeless who didn’t enter a warming center in time, or even tried to survive inside cars.

As Bloomberg describes, unexpected blizzard-like conditions which rapidly swept most of Texas prompted ‘rescue teams’ to deploy in search of homeless who hadn’t yet entered shelters:

In Houston, Dallas, San Antonio and other cities, social workers and volunteers fanned out to search for unhoused people and usher them into emergency warming centers; when community shelters reached capacity, churches and nonprofits opened their doors to those seeking refuge.

However, the report continues, “Not all found shelter: On Monday, a Houston man was found dead in a van after he declined to be taken to a warming center; another man was found dead on a highway median.”

Tragically and almost unbelievably, in some casesshelters were “limited” or actually shuttered altogether by preexisting COVID-19 restrictions:

Many said because of COVID-19 there was no roomin other shelters and that this was their last hope to find warmth before the temperatures plummet Sunday night.

“They gave out a list, a resource list, I called them and it’s the same thing – everybody is not opening due to the COVID-19 restrictions,” Houston resident David Barker told KTRK news channel.

 

Via Getty Images: A homeless camp under a bridge on I-35 in Austin, Texas, this week.

A separate report out of Louisiana similarly described the city of Lake Charles “grappling” with “ways of addressing the local homeless problem, made worse by restrictions posed by the COVID-19 pandemic,” which had severely limited resources and building space based on ‘social distancing’ and other precautions. It’s believed the pandemic precautions left many more on the streets than normally would have been at a moment the homeless were exposed to freezing temperatures, blizzard conditions, falling ice, and negative wind chills.

“Just too cold to be sleeping out of my vehicle at this time,” a homeless man was quoted as saying. A recent Houston initiative to place over 1000 people on the brink of homelessness into permanent housing which kicked off last year likely saved more lives. Yet it’s also looking like some warm, immediately usable shelters sat empty or at mere partial capacity …because “science”.

Meanwhile, The New York Times has only very recently discovered the serious danger and potentially calamitous impact of what’s known as Covid absolutism:

But controversially there may be significant resources still going unused across many Texas cities amid the scramble, as Bloomberg underscores:

Yet in Texas and other states struck by uncharacteristically severe winter weather, some of the best tools to address the current crisis are going unused. On Jan. 21, President Joe Biden signed an executive order directing the Federal Emergency Management Agency to fully reimburse local and state governments for the costs of moving unhoused people into hotels and motels during the pandemic. Austin, Dallas, Fort Worth and Houston have taken the federal government up on the offer, but many cities and counties in Texas have not.

Below: note the ‘socially distanced’ cots…

 

An emergency warming center within the Kay Bailey Hutchison Convention Center in Dallas, via ReligionNews.com

It remains though that the broad blackouts impacting millions of Texans had a trickledown effect which impacted the homeless and the ability for cities to tap into this program in one obvious way: motels and hotels across the state were quickly booked full by those fleeing their frigid or waterless homes… assuming the hotels themselves had enough power or staff.

Given these very hotels too are under COVID restrictions, there’s little doubt they could have been much better utilized or more available, similar to the apparently (in some cases) locked and shuttered ‘Covid restricted’ shelters in major cities.

end

TEXAS

Google Trends Reveals The Catastrophe On The Ground In Texas

 
FRIDAY, FEB 19, 2021 – 15:39

During the Texas power crisis where up to 15 million people lost power, we uncovered some disturbing internet searches in the Lone Star State of desperate people trying to find resources to survive.

On Monday, when wholesale electricity rates jumped and rolling blackouts plunged millions into darkness, we noted internet search trends in the Lone Star State for firewood exploded.

By Thursday, we showed readers internet searches for “pipe burst” erupted and even suggested that insurance claims were about to erupt. 

Shedding more light onto the “humanitarian crisis” as millions of Texans got a taste of what it’s like to live in a third world country, Google Trends adds more color onto the distressing search trends as millions struggled to survive the Arctic blast. 

Searches for soup, fireplace, propane, among other things, erupted this week. 

In the note titled “Is Texas Facing A Humanitarian Crisis?” we documented that people waited in lines across the state to fill up their propane tanks. Houston Chronicle’s Brett Coomer noted that many of these folks did not have power for days. 

Google Trends also said search trends for “free water near me” rose 1,650% over the past day. With millions of Texans still facing water issues, other search terms such as “Is it safe to wash dishes when there is a boil order” surged 1,400%. 

While Texans raced to supermarkets over the week, those who were less fortunate, already dealing with food and housing insecurities thanks to the virus pandemic downturn, frantically searched “Foodbank registration.” 

Search trends revealed Texans got their first real taste of what it’s like to live in a third-world country. 

Emergency over: warmer weather arrived.

(zerohedge)

ERCOT Declares “End” To Texas “Emergency Conditions” Amid Warmer Weather

 
FRIDAY, FEB 19, 2021 – 12:05

Texas power grid operator “ERCOT” officials lift emergency conditions today. They said, “we have left the last stage of emergency operations – so we’re completely back to normal operations as of now.” 

As of writing this note, PowerOutage.US showed 197k customers in Texas are without power as ERCOT has brought on significant amounts of a generation back online in the last 24 hours to stabilize the grid. 

In more welcoming news, warmer weather trends are expected to begin this weekend and continue into next week for Southwest, Southeast, parts of the Midwest, Mid-Atlantic, and parts of the Northeast following one coldest and stormiest periods in years. 

Forecast temperatures show the Arctic air will leave much of the country later this weekend into next week. A relief for over 100 million Americans who have been battered with freezing temperatures and winter storms. 

Temperature anomalies for much of the US will return to normal through early March, with the occasional cold spurts, but nothing like what we just observed. 

Meteorologists at BAMWX expect warmer weather through Mar. 8 and winter activity to stay on a more northerly track.  

“We are anticipating more of a La Nina-like atmospheric pattern to take hold late February into early March. Essentially what this means is more “clashing of airmasses” pattern with a better thermal gradient (ridge of high pressure) East. What this likely results in is a more northerly track with wintry weather across the Upper-Midwest and Great Lakes, while increasing the threat for rainfall and even strong storm opportunities to open Meteorological spring from the Deep South, Ohio Valley and points east,” said BAMWX’s Kirk Heinz. 

So is there light at the end of the tunnel and the end to all this winter weather madness? Maybe so, or at least for the next week. 

68
 
END
Minimum wage hike to $15.00 will not happen as Biden backs away
(zerohedge)

Biden Warns Governors Minimum Wage Hike Won’t Happen Even With Dems In Control

 
FRIDAY, FEB 19, 2021 – 11:28

As the process of reconciling the House and Senate versions of his $1.9 trillion stimulus package continues, President Joe Biden appears to be backing away from yet another progressive priority: hiking the minimum wage.

Thousands of Americans took to the streets this week to demand $15/hour minimum wage and hazard pay for vulnerable low-wage workers. Just the other day, Wal-Mart promised that it would raise its internal minimum wage to $15 an hour. Yet now Joe Biden and his fellow Democrats, who control both chambers of Congress, are officially axing the wage hike.

It’s not exactly a surprise. Biden has been saying he probably wouldn’t be able to get the minimum wage stuff in the final version of the $1.9 trillion stimulus bill, which is currently being hammered out by legislators from both the House and Senate in a process known as reconciliation.

And in a call late last week, Biden reportedly told a group of governors and mayors from around the country that a minimum wage hike simply wouldn’t make it through the reconciliation

“I really want this in there but it just doesn’t look like we can do it because of reconciliation,” Biden told the group, according to a person in the room. “I’m not going to give up. But right now, we have to prepare for this not making it.”

Although Dems control both houses, Biden insists that the minimum wage hike must be bipartisan, and even reportedly asked Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan for help on that, though according to the report,

Just yesterday, Biden axed any hope for another progressive policy priority: the AOC-approved $50K in student-debt forgiveness.

Instead, Biden said he would consider $10k – though he remains wary of appearing to bail out students from elite universities. Since at least Superbowl Sunday, Biden has been saying that the minimum wage hike probably wouldn’t make the final bill.

And it’s not hard to see why: Because on some level, Biden fears the blowback. Runaway inflation and the elimination of millions of low-wage jobs (which are still jobs at the end of the day) could cause serious economic chaos right now, with global equities just off record highs.

Still, union activists are taking umbrage at the decision, and questioning Biden’s commitment to progressive policy stances.

Economists, on the other hand, worry about the blowback to the labor market. One Goldman analysis found a correlation between rising minimum wage and job rates, though Goldman adds that “there are only a handful of studies of hikes as large as the $15 proposal because few hikes this large have occurred in the US or elsewhere.”

end

House Releases Text Of $1.9 Trillion Stimulus – Which Includes $15 Hourly Minimum Wage Hike

BY TYLER DURDEN
FRIDAY, FEB 19, 2021 – 14:23

House Budget Chair Rep. John Yarmuth (D-KY) has released the nearly 600-page combined text of the $1.9 trillion stimulus package, which includes a federal minimum wage hike that President Biden insisted wouldn’t happen after Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) said it was a non-starter.

Under the new bill, the minimum wage will increase to $9.50 an hour as soon as the bill is passed, raising to $11.00 an hour one year later, $12.50 two years later, $14.00 three years later, and $15.00 an hour beginning the fourth year following passage of the legislation.

 

h/t @CCapLP

So the question is – why did Democrats intentionally include the minimum wage hike which they knew would result – at minimum – in a battle which would require rewriting the stimulus package?

On Thursday, Manchin told advocates for a $15 minimum wage that he was more open to a compromise that would raise it to $11 per hour, according to AP. If Manchin remains steadfast in his opposition to the $15 level, it would mean the bill can’t pass unless at least one Republican were to join every other Senate Democrat in voting for the legislation, with Vice President Kamala Harris as the tie-breaker.

END

iv) Swamp commentaries

5 Of 7 Republican Senators Who Convicted Trump Have Been Censured In Home States

 
THURSDAY, FEB 18, 2021 – 22:40

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times,

Of the seven Republican senators who voted to convict former President Donald Trump, five of them have been censured by various state and county Republican Parties or from voters.

On Monday night, the North Carolina GOP unanimously voted to censure Sen. Richard Burr (R-N.C.), who is retiring in 2022, after he voted to convict, despite previously said it was unconstitutional to try a former president.

“By what he did and by what he did not do, President Trump violated his oath of office to preserve, protect, and defend the Constitution,” Burr stated over the past weekend.

Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.), who voted to convict and is up for reelection in 2026, explained that he did so because he “took an oath to support and defend the Constitution, and I take that oath seriously.” However, his move didn’t go over well in the state’s GOP.

The Louisiana Republican Party unanimously voted to censure—or officially condemn—Cassidy for his vote on the same day that he voted to convict the former president.

Before that, the Lincoln County Republican Party unanimously censured Sen. Ben Sasse (R-Neb.) for his dismissing the legitimate concerns” of Nebraska’s secretary of state, Nebraska’s attorney general, “and a huge majority of Republican voters,” while it said he failed “to respect the high office of the President of the United States.”

Sasse could be the one who loses the most politically, as some have said the senator could be a 2024 Republican presidential candidate. However, he is likely to face blowback from Republican voters, who, according to polls, view Trump very favorably.

Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska), who faces reelection in 2022, was censured by Republicans in six state House districts over her vote to convict.

“I stand my ground. If I had to take that vote again, I would vote to uphold my oath of office,” she said after voting, according to the Anchorage Daily News. “And, if the party is to censure me because they felt that I needed to support the party, they can make that statement, but I will make the statement again that my obligation is to support the Constitution that I have pledged to uphold, and I will do that, even if it means I have to oppose the direction of my state party.”

In Pennsylvania, the York County GOP censured Sen. Pat Toomey (R-Pa.), who is slated to retire in 2022.

“Given his recent support of the second unconstitutional impeachment effort against a president who is no longer in office the York County Republican Committee has reached the limits of its frustration,” Republican state Rep. Dawn Keefer wrote.

Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah), a noted Trump critic from within the Republican Party, will not be censured by the Utah Republican Party after the organization said it would not do so. However, a widely circulated petition condemns the 2012 Republican presidential candidate for using “his senatorial power and influence to undermine” Trump.

The state GOP noted that Romney and fellow Utah Sen. Mike Lee (R), who acquitted Trump, cast different votes.

“The differences between our own Utah Republicans showcase a diversity of thought, in contrast to the danger of a party fixated on ‘unanimity of thought,’” the Utah Republican Party said in a statement on Monday, explaining that it won’t censure Romney.

Meanwhile, Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) has not faced any punitive actions from within her party or a petition, although the state GOP is reportedly meeting to discuss potentially censuring her.

end

Six Capitol Police Officers Suspended Without Pay As Feds Investigate Roles In Jan 6 Breach

 
FRIDAY, FEB 19, 2021 – 12:50

Six Capitol police officers have been suspended without pay and are currently under investigation for alleged conduct during the Jan. 6 riot, according to Axios.

 

Capitol police officer takes selfie with protester

According to a spokesperson, the suspensions and investigations are related to a directive by acting Capitol Police Chief Yogananda Pittman to reprimand officers who did not properly respond to the riots. Pittman told Congress past month that the Capitol police “failed to meet its own high standards” during the incident and did not take the necessary steps to prepare for the “strong potential for violence.”

Rep. Tim Ryan (D-Ohio) said that one of the suspended officers took a selfie with one of the rioters, and that another one wore a “Make America Great Again” hat and directed people around the buildingaccording to CNN.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) said earlier this month that Congress plans to establish a “9/11-type commission” to investigate the siege and report on “the preparedness and response of the United States Capitol Police and other federal, state, and local law enforcement.”

On Feb. 23, the Senate Homeland Security Committee and Senate Rules Committee will hold a joint hearing on the security failures which allowed for the breach at the Capitol.

According to CNN, “At least seven officers in five other departments across the country have come under internal investigations as their presence in Washington during the assault comes to light through social media or other means.”

One officer in New York, one in Philadelphia, two in Seattle, two in Virginia and one in Texas are under investigation by their departments for potential rules violations. Additionally, some departments have been contacted by the FBI as part of their criminal investigation into the overrunning of the Capitol.
 
The number may grow as investigators and the public sift through social media and lodge allegations that officers may have been involved in the siege. -CNN

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

Walmart Falls After Forecasting Earnings Drop, More Spending
Retailer will raise wages to average of more than $15 an hour
    Walmart Inc. fell after forecasting a slowdown in sales and profit for the year, plus billions of additional spending on worker salaries, automation and other technology.  The retailer said Thursday earnings per share will decline slightly in the fiscal year that just started, though will be flat or slightly up when excluding divestitures. Although U.S. comparable sales will stay positive this year, they’ll rise in the low-single-digits, below the recent breakneck rate but on pace with estimates…
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-18/walmart-will-boost-pay-and-automation-spend-sees-earnings-dip

U.S. import prices post biggest gain since 2012
Import prices jumped 1.4% last month [1% exp.], the biggest gain since March 2012, after increasing 1.0% in December… Imported fuel prices increased 7.4% last month after soaring 8.1% in December. Imported food prices surged 2.1%.  Excluding fuels and foods, import prices accelerated 0.8% after gaining 0.4% in December… Export prices increased 2.3% on a year-on-year basis in January, the largest gain October 2018… http://reut.rs/3s9lwDN

Lumber hit a record $1004.90; copper rallied as much as 2.8%.  WTI Oil hit 62.26; but reversed because natural gas plunged 99% in Oklahoma on supply recoveries.

Jan Housing Starts fell 6% to 1.58m (-0.5% to 1.66m exp.)  Initial Jobless Claims rose to 861k from 848k (initially 793k, 773k exp.).  Continuing Claims fell to 4.494m from 4.55m; 4.425m was consensus.

ESHs peaked (3936.00) 1.5 hours after they opened on Wednesday night.  They plunged to 3880.50 by the end of the first hour of NYSE trading.  Fangs and tech stocks led the tumble.

The morning rebound rally ended 10 minutes before the European close.  ESHs and stocks then traded sideways until an early afternoon rally appeared.  The afternoon rally was presaged by manic buying in the SPY February 390 calls.  By 14:30 ET, over 190,000 SPY February 390 calls had traded.  Finally, someone generated the upside manipulation and squeeze on expiring SPY calls!
The Fed balance sheet bubbled $115.177B on $100.177B of MBS monetization as of Wednesday!!!
https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/current/

After the close yesterday, Treasury Sec Yellen appearing on CNBC, said:

  • Jobless rate if properly measured would be 10%
  • Benefits of stimulus outweighs the risks
  • Economic scarring is greater risk than inflation
  • Inflation is a risk; but Fed has tools to fight it (Only 2 things the Fed can do!)
  • Potential tax increases may be phased in slowly
  • She sees no difficulty in financing US debt
  • Zero-commission trading has spurred retail investors
  • Need to review investor protection in trading practices
  • May be sectors where we should be careful in stocks (begrudging nod to a bubble)
  • Range of issues to address with China; ‘We’ll look at that’ (tariffs)
  • Should work with allies to address China’s practices
  •  

Biden skips Michigan trip over snow, calls early ‘lid’ at White House   https://trib.al/GFrZ9JL

‘Recipe for disaster’: Dem fears mount over immigration overhaul – “Biden is going to be dealing with a minority in Congress if he continues down some of these paths,” said one Democratic congressman…   https://www.politico.com/news/2021/02/18/immigration-politics-democrats-469732

@NickFondacaro: Tonight, @ABCWorldNews spent just 54 seconds on New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo being the subject of a federal corruption probe as state Dems move to strip him of emergency powers. Instead, they spent 3 minutes and 28 seconds on Sen. Ted Cruz’s (R-TX) bad Cancun optics.

@DonaldJTrumpJr: Biden calls a lid at 8am on a Thursday while one of the largest states in the union could use some emergency management but let’s all talk about Ted Cruz. You people are full of…

Trump snubs Haley – NIKKI HALEY reached out to former President DONALD TRUMP on Wednesday to request a sit-down at Mar-a-Lago, but a source familiar tells Playbook that he turned her down. The two haven’t spoken since the insurrection on Jan. 6, when Haley blasted Trump for inciting his supporters to storm the Capitol…Haley tried to recover Thursday with a damage-control op-ed in the WSJ wrapped in blame-the-media rhetoric. But Trump, apparently, isn’t having it…
https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook-pm/2021/02/18/trump-snubs-haley-491802

House Democrats Introduce ‘No Glory for Hate Act’ to Prevent Trump Name from Being Displayed on Federal Projects [It is clear who the haters and the deranged are!]
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2021/02/18/house-democrats-introduce-no-glory-for-hate-act-to-prevent-trump-name-from-being-displayed-on-federal-projects/

U.S. Says It’s Willing to Meet with Iran to Restore Nuclear Deal
https://financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/u-s-says-its-willing-to-meet-with-iran-over-nuclear-deal
ell that is all for today

END

Let us close out the week with this offering courtesy of Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.

(Greg hunter)

Big Tech Censors, 2020 Election Still Stolen, Economy Fragile

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com (WNW 469 2.19.2021)

YouTube is censoring people like never before.  USAWatchdog.com was the latest causality in  Big Tech’s quest to silence any narrative it does not want.  USAW was abruptly taken off YouTube last week for good without reason other than Community Guidelines were broken for the third time.  The channel had more than 260,000 subscribers and more than 90 million video views.  The three main narratives you cannot talk about or even question are the massive election fraud that stole a landslide win from President Trump, Covid lies and vaccine questions, and any challenge to the official Climate Change narrative.  USAWatchdog.com has questioned them all and will continue to do so with or without YouTube.

President Trump went on NewsMax to talk about the passing of radio legend Rush Limbaugh.  He will be greatly missed.  The President also talked about the election fraud and the “tabulations” of the 2020 Election.  Trump did not back down an inch that the election was stolen.  Trump also said, “What happened was a disgrace,” and “This is what you find in third world countries.”  Trump would not answer when asked if he was going to run again in 2024 now that he was acquitted on the Democrats’ second impeachment attempt in four years.

Bitcoin (BTC) broke $50,000 per unit this week, but the overall markets are not doing that much celebrating.  Big money management firms are worried that the market is out of control.  Meanwhile, big money keeps piling into (BTC) and some wonder if this is some sort of bad omen for what may be coming.  One top brokerage CEO is worried about the market reaching a breaking point and said he was scared of a “domino bankruptcy.”

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he talks about these stories and more in the Weekly News Wrap-Up.

(To Donate to USAWatchdog.com Click Here)

After the Interview:

I will see you MONDAY night.

One comment

  1. […] by Harvey Organ, Harvey Organ Blog: […]

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