FEB 23//GOLD DOWN $2.45 TO $1806.20..SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS TO $27.62//TONIGHT ENDS COMEX OPTIONX EXPIRY//FRIDAY IS OTC/LBMA OPTIONS EXPIRY//COMEX GOLD STANDING; 11.8 TONNES//SILVER STANDING 12.0 MILLION OZ/CORONAVIRUS UPDATE//VACCINE UPDATE//

GOLD:$1806.20 DOWN  $2.45   The quote is London spot price  (.135% down)

Silver:$27.62. DOWN  $0.34   London spot price ( cash market)  (1.086%)

your data…

Closing access prices:  London spot

i)Gold : $1805.80  LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

ii)SILVER:  $27.66//LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

Tomorrow  is options expiry on the comex

Friday is options expiry on LBMA/OTC.

Editorial of The New York Sun | February 1, 2021

end

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COMEX DATA

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

receiving today237/334

issued 0

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: FEBRUARY 2021 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,806.700000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 02/22/2021 DELIVERY DATE: 02/24/2021
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
072 C GOLDMAN 333 1
332 H STANDARD CHARTE 15
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 14
555 H BNP PARIBAS SEC 1
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 14
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 22
661 C JP MORGAN 221
661 H JP MORGAN 16
686 C STONEX FINANCIA 2
690 C ABN AMRO 1
709 H BARCLAYS 11
880 C CITIGROUP 2
880 H CITIGROUP 7
905 C ADM 8
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 334 334
MONTH TO DATE: 34,633

Goldman Sachs:  stopped:  1

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  FEB. CONTRACT: 334 NOTICE(S) FOR 33,400 OZ  (1.0388 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  34,633 NOTICES FOR 3,463,300 OZ  (107.723 tonnes) 

SILVER//FEB CONTRACT

171 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 855,000  OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month: 2274 for 11,370,000  oz

BITCOIN MORNING QUOTE  $46,215,  DOWN 8033 dollars

BITCOIN AFTERNOON QUOTE.:$47,221  DOWN 7027 DOLLARS .

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

:

GLD AND SLV INVENTORIES:

WITH GOLD DOWN $2.45  AND NO PHYSICAL TO BE FOUND ANYWHERE:

WITH ALL REFINER CLOSED//MEXICO ORDERING ALL MINES SHUT:   WHERE ARE THEY GETTING THE “PHYSICAL?

WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING HUGE WITHDRAWALS WHETHER GOLD IS UP OR DOWN.  TO ME

IN GOLD, THE BANK OF ENGLAND WANTS ITS GOLD LEASE BACK EVEN THOUGH THE GOLD IS IN THE B OF E VAULTS.  THE RISK OF DEFAULT BY THE GLD IS TOO GREAT FOR THEM SO THEY NO DOUBT THEY CANCELLED THEIR LEASES

A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//:A WITHDRAWAL OF 12.54 PAPER TONNES FROM THE GLD.

GOLD IS DOWN .13% TODAY//GLD IS DOWN 0.22% AND YET WE HAVE A MASSIVE PAPER GOLD WITHDRAWAL OF 12,54 PAPER TONNES.

GLD: 1,115.40 TONNES OF GOLD//

WITH SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS TODAY: AND WITH NO SILVER AROUND

A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//

TWO ENTRIES

A)A SMALL DEPOSIT OF 127,000 OZ INTO THE SLV.

B) A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 7.801 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV

INVENTORY RESTS AT:

SLV: 619.613  MILLION OZ./

xxxxx

GLD closing price//NYSE 167.14 DOWN 37 CENTS OR   0,22%  (VS .13% FOR GOLD ITSELF)

SLV closing price NYSE 25.70 DOWN $0.57 OR 2.17%(VS 1.06 % FOR SILVER ITSELF)

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Let us have a look at the data for today

THE COMEX OI IN SILVER FELL BY A TINY SIZED 69 CONTRACTS FROM 179,004 DOWN TO 178,935, AND FURTHER FROM OUR NEW RECORD OF 244,710, (FEB 25/2020. THE LOSS IN OI OCCURRED DESPITE OUR STRONG  $0.74 GAIN IN SILVER PRICINGAT THE COMEX. IT SEEMS THAT THE LOSS IN COMEX OI IS  DUE TO HUGE BANKER AND ALGO  SHORT COVERING//HUGE REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//SOME  SPREADER LIQUIDATON.. COUPLED AGAINST A STRONG EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. WE ALSO HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION, AND A STRONG INCREASE FOR SILVER OUNCES STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR FEB. WE HAD A STRONG NET GAIN IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 3893 CONTRACTS  (SEE CALCULATIONS BELOW).

WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A STRONG  NUMBER OF  COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE:  1412,, AS WE HAD THE FOLLOWING ISSUANCE:  MARCH  1412 MAY: 0 AND ZERO ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE 1412 CONTRACTS. THE BANKERS ARE NOW BEING BITTEN BY THOSE SERIAL FORWARDS (EFP’S CIRCULATING IN LONDON)AS THEY ARE NOW BEING EXERCISED AND COMING BACK TO NEW YORK FOR REDEMPTION OF METAL.  THE COST TO SERVICE THESE SERIAL FORWARDS IS HIGH TO OUR BANKERS  BUT THEY HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO ISSUE A FEW OF THEM!

HISTORY OF SILVER OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR THE PAST 26 MONTHS.

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

7.32     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

2.630     MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOV.

20.970   MILLION OZ  FINAL STANDING IN DEC

5.075     MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JAN

1.480    MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN FEB

23.005  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAR

4.660  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR APRIL

45.220 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAY

2.205  MILLION OF FINAL STANDING FOR JUNE

86.470 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JULY.

6.475 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN AUGUST

55.400 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN SEPT

8.900 MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT.

3.950 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN NOV.

46.685 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR DEC.

6.890 MILLION FINAL STANDING FOR JAN 2021

12.020  MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING FOR FEB 2021

MONDAY,AGAIN OUR CROOKS USED COPIOUS PAPER IN ORDER TO LIQUIDATE SILVER’S PRICE …AND THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.74) ).. AND, OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE ANY SILVER LONGS AS WE HAD A STRONG GAIN IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES (1343 CONTRACTS). NO DOUBT THE TOTAL GAIN IN OI IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES WERE DUE TO i) HUGE BANKER/ALGO SHORT COVERING// STRONG REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//SOME SPREADER LIQUIDATION//.  WE ALSO HAD  ii)  A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS 2) A STRONG INCREASE  IN SILVER OZ  STANDING  FOR FEB, iii) TINY COMEX OI LOSS AND iv) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION. YOU CAN BET THE FARM THAT OUR BANKERS  ARE DESPERATE TO LIQUIDATE THEIR HUGE SHORT POSITIONS IN SILVER..

WE ARE BEGINNING TO WITNESS A LACK OF EXCHANGE FOR GOLD PHYSICALS UNDERWRITTEN DUE TO PREMIUMS STARTING TO REAPPEAR IN THE FUTURE PRICE OF GOLD VS LONDON SPOT. THE COST TO THE BANKERS IS JUST TOO GREAT TO ENGAGE IN THESE VEHICLES ONCE THIS OCCURS.

We have now switched to SILVER for our spreaders!!

FOR DETAILS ON THE SPREADING EXERCISE HERE IS A BRIEF OUTLINE:

SPREADING OPERATIONS/NOW SWITCHING TO SILVER  (WE SWITCH OVER TO GOLD ON NOV  1)

SPREADING OPERATION FOR OUR NEWCOMERS:

FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS:

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED IN SILVER  AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF MAR.

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEW, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE SPREADERS AND THE CRIMINAL ELEMENT BEHIND IT:

 HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR GOLD..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR GOLD.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

.

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO SILVER AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB. HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAR FOR SILVER:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF FEB. BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (MAR), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

FEB

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY /FOR MONTH OF FEB:

39,180 CONTRACTS (FOR 16 TRADING DAY(S) TOTAL 39,180 CONTRACTS) OR 195.900 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 2448 CONTRACTS OR 12.243 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF FEB: 195.900 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON.

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF FEB: 195.90. MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON.

JAN EFP ACCUMULATION FINAL:  113.735 MILLION OZ

FEB EFP ACCUMULATION FOR FAR:   195.900 MILLION OZ (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

RESULT: WE HAD A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 2481, WITH OUR  $0.74 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ///MONDAY.…THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 1412 CONTRACTS WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS.

TODAY WE GAINED A STRONG SIZED 3,893 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES (WITH OUR $0.74 RISE IN PRICE)//

THE TALLY//EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

i.e 1412 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s)TOGETHER WITH A TINY SIZED DECREASE OF 69 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND HAPPENED WITH OUR $0.74 GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER/AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $27.96 // MONDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY. 

FOR THE NEW FEB.  DELIVERY MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 171 NOTICE(S) FOR  855,000 OZ OF SILVER.

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018. AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.70//TODAY’S RECORD OF 244,705 WAS SET WITH A PRICE OF: 18.91 (FEB 25/2020)

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

GOLD

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 1329 CONTRACTS TO 490,532 AND CLOSER TO  OUR NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI OCCURRED DESPITE OUR STRONG GAIN IN PRICE  OF $30.00///COMEX GOLD TRADING// MONDAY.WE PROBABLY HAD HUGE BANKER/ALGO SHORT COVERING  ACCOMPANYING OUR SMALL EXCHANGE FOR  PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION. WE ALSO HAD A SMALL LOSS IN GOLD STANDING  AT THE COMEX TO 112.842 TONNES FOR FEBRUARY..AS OUR BANKERS NEGATED ANOTHER QUEUE JUMP AS THEY SEARCH FOR METAL OVER IN LONDON. I AM PRETTY SURE THAT OUR BANKERS ARE RUNNING OUT OF DODGE..THEY MUST COVER THEIR SHORTFALL QUICKLY... YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR STRONG GAIN IN PRICE OF $30.00!!!.

WE HAD A VOLUME OF 0    4 -GC CONTRACTS//OPEN INTEREST  10//

WE HAD A SMALL GAIN  OF 1540 CONTRACTS  (4.790 TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES..

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A SMALL SIZED 2869 CONTRACTS:

CONTRACT . FEB:0,  APRIL:  2869 AND JUNE:  0  ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO//TOTAL: 2869.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 490,532. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EXCHANGE DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 1540 CONTRACTS: 1329 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 2869 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 1540 CONTRACTS OR 4.790 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:

WE HAD A SMALL SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (2869) ACCOMPANYING THE SMALL SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI  (1329 OI): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES:  1540 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1 ) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AS OUR BANKERS ARE RUNNING FROM DODGE AND CONSIDERABLE ALGO SHORT COVERING ,2.)SMALL DECREASE STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR THE FRONT FEB. MONTH FALLING TO 112.842 TONNES3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION /// ;4) SMALL COMEX OI LOSS AND 5) SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL  ...ALL OF THIS WAS HAPPENED WITH OUR SMALL GAIN IN GOLD PRICE TRADING//MONDAY//$30.00!!.

WE ARE BEGINNING TO WITNESS A LACK OF EXCHANGE FOR GOLD PHYSICALS UNDERWRITTEN DUE TO PREMIUMS STARTING TO REAPPEAR IN THE FUTURE PRICE OF GOLD VS LONDON SPOT. THE COST TO THE BANKERS IS JUST TOO GREAT TO ENGAGE IN THESE VEHICLES ONCE THIS OCCURS.

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2020 INCLUDING TODAY

FEB

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF FEB : 46,719, CONTRACTS OR4,671,900 oz OR 145.31 TONNES (16 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2919 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 16 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 145.19 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2020, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 145.31/3550 x 100% TONNES =4.09% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO DATE:
JANUARY: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)
FEB  :  145.31 TONNES SO FAR ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..THUS EFP’S IN SILVER INCREASING AND GOLD EFP’S DECREASING.

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, ROSE BY A TINY SIZED 69 CONTRACTS FROM 179,004 DOWN TO 178,935 AND FURTHER FROM OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 3/4 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

THE TINY SIZED LOSS IN OI SILVER COMEX WAS PRIMARILY DUE TO 1) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING//ALGO SHORT COVERING//REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING , 2) A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (SEE BELOW), 3) A STRONG INCREASE IN  STANDING FOR SILVER  AT THE COMEX FOR FEB., AND 4) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION 5) SOME SPREADER LIQUIDATION 

EFP ISSUANCE 1412 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 MARCH:  1412 ; MAY: 0 AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1412 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI LOSS OF 69 CONTRACTS TO THE 1412 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 1343 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 6.715 MILLION  OZ, OCCURRED WITH OUR $0.74 RISE IN PRICE///

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL..THE EVIDENCE IS CLEAR: HUGE AMOUNTS OF PHYSICAL STANDING FOR BOTH  SILVER AND GOLD .

(report Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)TUESDAY MORNING/ MONDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 6.09 PTS OR 0.17%   //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 312.81 PTSOR 1.03%    /The Nikkei closed UP 138.11 POINTS OR 0.46%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.70%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP AT 6.4634 /Oil UP TO 62.16 dollars per barrel for WTI and 65.51 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MOSTLY RED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.4634. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.4690 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS //TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED//CORONAVIRUS/PANDEMIC/TRUMP TESTS POSITIVE FOR COVID 19  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL  BY A SMALL SIZED 1329 CONTRACTS TO 490,532 MOVING FURTHER FROM THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020).  AND THIS SMALL  COMEX DECREASE OCCURRED DESPITE  OUR STRONG GAIN OF $30.00 IN GOLD PRICING /MONDAY’S COMEX TRADING/)… WE ALSO HAD A SMALL EFP ISSUANCE (2869 CONTRACTS).   WE  ALSO PROBABLY HAD AGAIN  1)  HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING//ALGO SHORT COVERING,  2) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION  AND 3)  SMALL DECREASE STANDING AT THE GOLD  COMEX//FEB. DELIVERY MONTH(112.842 TONNES) (SEE BELOW) …  AS WE ENGINEERED A FAIR SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 1540 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE LATELY WITNESSED THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL….. AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS.

(SEE BELOW)

WE  HAD 0    4 -GC VOLUME//open interest REMAINS AT   10

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JAN..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A SMALL SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 2869 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  ; FEB// ’21  0 AND APRIL:  2869, JUNE:  0 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2869  CONTRACTS.

YOU WILL FIND THAT WHEN WE HAVE A GOOD PREMIUM IN THE FUTURES/SPOT, THEN THE NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS DECLINE IN NUMBERS.  THE COST IS JUST TOO MUCH FOR THEM TO ISSUE. TODAY THAT PREMIUM WAS SMALL AND THUS A LITTLE MORE THAN USUAL OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WERE ISSUED.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINEDTHE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A SMALL 1540 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 2869 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE LOST A SMALL SIZED  COMEX OI  OF 1329 CONTRACTS.  WE HAVE A HUGE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR FEB (112.842 TONNES) FOLLOWING OUR STRONG LEVEL OF JAN 2021 GOLD CONTRACTS STANDING FOR DELIVERY. ((6.500 TONNES).  IF YOU INCLUDE  NOVEMBER’S HUGE 34.7 TONNES, AND DEC. 93.589 OUR COMEX IS OFFICIALLY UNDER ASSAULT.

THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT ROSE $30.00)., AND WERE SOMEWHAT  UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING ANY LONGS  AS THE TOTAL GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES REGISTERED A FAIR 4.790 TONNES, ACCOMPANYING OUR HUGE GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR FEB (112.842 TONNES)..I  STRONGLY BELIEVE THAT OUR BANKER FRIENDS ARE GETTING QUITE NERVOUS.  THE SMALL GAIN IN COMEX OI IS DUE TO BANKER SHORT COVERING IN A BIG WAY.  THEY ARE LOOKING OVER THEIR SHOULDERS AND WITNESSING MASSIVE SILVER SHORTAGES THAT CANNOT BE COVERED. THEY ARE TRYING TO FLEE IN HASTE “FROM DODGE”. 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES :: 1540 CONTRACTS OR  15,400 OZ OR  4.790  TONNES

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT COMMODITY FUTURES OPEN INTEREST SHOULD APPROXIMATE 3% OF TOTAL PRODUCTION.  IN GOLD THE WORLD PRODUCES AROUND 3500 TONNES PER YEAR BUT ONLY 2200 TONNES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE WEST (THUS EXCLUDING RUSSIA, CHINA ETC..WHO KEEP 100% OF THEIR PRODUCTION)

THUS IN GOLD WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:  490,532 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS X 100 OZ PER CONTRACT = 49.05 MILLION OZ/32,150 OZ PER TONNE =  1525 TONNES

THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST REPRESENTS 1525/2200 OR 69.34% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF GOLD.

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 188,173 contracts// volume poor//

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  232,805 contracts//  volume: fair/ //most of our traders have left for London

FEB 23 /2021

INITIAL STANDINGS FOR FEB COMEX GOLD
Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
NIL OZ
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz 32,118.849
OZ

BRINKS

999 KILOBARS

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz
20,716.195 oz
HSBC
No of oz served (contracts) today
334  notice(s)
33,400 OZ
(1.0388 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)
1646 contracts
164,600 oz)
5.119 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
34,633 notices
3,463,300 OZ
107.723 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

We had 1 deposit into the dealer

i) Into Brinks: 32,118.849 oz (999 kilobars)
total deposit:  32,118.849   oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had 0 deposits to the customer account
oz

we had  0 withdrawals from  the customer account

total withdrawals:  nil oz

We had 3  kilobar transactions

ADJUSTMENTS  2:  dealer to customer

JPMorgan:  26,910.387 oz  837 kilobars.

b) Customer to dealer:  Brinks: 18,905.788 oz  588 kilobars

The front month of FEB registered a total of 1980 CONTRACTS FOR A LOSS OF 391 CONTRACTS.  WE

HAD 343 CONTRACTS FILED ON MONDAY SO WE LOST A SMALL 48 CONTRACTS OR 4800 OZ  MORPHED INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS AND AS SUCH ACCEPTED A FIAT BONUS FOR THEIR EFFORT.  IT IS NOW OUR BANKERS TURN TO FIND BADLY NEEDED PHYSICAL. QUEUE JUMPING NOW BECOMES THE NORM AT THE GOLD COMEX AS BANKERS ARE IN URGENT NEED OF PHYSICAL METAL.HOWEVER TODAY, OUR BANKERS COULD NOT LOCATE ANY PHYSICAL METAL FOR THEMSELVES SO THEY ARE TRYING THEIR LUCK OVER IN LONDON.

MARCH LOST ONLY 155 contracts to stand at 2210. WE ARE GOING TO HAVE A VERY STRONG MARCH DELIVERY OF OVER 6 TONNNES. MARCH IS A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH.

APRIL LOST 1372 contracts to stand at 374,837

We had 334 notice(s) filed today for 33400 oz

FOR THE FEB 2021 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and  0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 334  contract(s) of which 16  notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 221 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notices received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the FEB /2021. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (34,633) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  (FEB 1980 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today (334 x 100 oz per contract) equals 3,627,900 OZ OR 112.842 TONNESthe number of ounces standing in this  active month of FEB

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the FEB/55911 contract month:

No of notices filed so far 34,633 x 100 oz  + (  1980 OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (334} x 100 oz which equals 3,627,900 oz standing OR 112.842 TONNES in this active delivery month of FEBRUARY. This is a HUGE amount  standing for GOLD IN  FEB

WE LOST A SMALL 48 CONTRACTS OR 4800 OZ  MORPHED INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS AS NOW OUR BANKER FRIENDS WILL TRY THEIR LUCK TO FIND METAL ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE POND.  

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:  

461,317.475 oz NOW PLEDGED  SEPT 15.2020/HSBC  14.34 TONNES

137,613.934 PLEDGED  APRIL 3/2020: SCOTIA:3.7708 TONNES

290,795.495 oz  JPM  9.04 TONNES

1,048,677.37 oz pledged June 12/2020 Brinks/32.618 TONNES

94,500.934 oz Pledged August 21/regular account 2.93 tonnes JPMORGAN

6,308.08 oz International Delaware:  .196 tonnes

192.06 oz Malca

182,867.893 Manfra

total pledged gold:  2,222,274.087 oz                                     69.12 tonnes

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES…. WE HAVE 544.16 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS i.e. 112.842 tonnes

CALCULATION OF REGISTERED THAT CAN BE SETTLED UPON:

total registered or dealer  19,717,231.675 oz or 613.28 tonne
total weight of pledged:  2,222,274.087 oz or 69.12 tonnes
thus:
registered gold that can be used to settle upon: 17,494,957.0  (544,16 tonnes)
true registered gold  (total registered – pledged tonnes  17,494,957.0 (544.16 tonnes)
total eligible gold: 19,680,576.07 , oz (612.14 tonnes)

total registered, pledged  and eligible (customer) gold  39,397,746.897 oz 1,225.43 tonnes (INCLUDES 4 GC GOLD)

total 4 GC gold:   126.34 tonnes

total gold net of 4 GC:  1099.09 tonnes

end

I have compiled  data with respect to registered (or dealer) gold taken on first day notice for each of the past 24 months

The data begins on first day notice for the May month taken on the last day of July 2018. and it continues to present day.

I then took, how many deliveries were recorded by the CME for each and every month.  I also included for reference the price of gold on first day notice.

The first graph is a logarithmic  graph and the second graph, linear.

You can see the huge explosion of registered gold at the comex along with deliveries.

THE DATA AND GRAPHS:
END

FEB 23/2021

And now for the wild silver comex results

And now for the wild silver comex results

INITIAL STANDING FOR SILVER/FEB

FEB. SILVER COMEX CONTRACT MONTH//INITIAL STANDING

Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
1,908,504.139 oz
CNT
JPMorgan
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
nil oz
No of oz served today (contracts)
171
CONTRACT(S)
(855,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
130 contracts
 650,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  2274 contracts

11,370,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
We had 0 deposit into the dealer:

total dealer deposits: nil        oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had 0 deposits into the customer account (ELIGIBLE ACCOUNT)

JPMorgan now has 196.3 million oz of  total silver inventory or 49.62% of all official comex silver. (196.3 million/395.6 million

total customer deposits today: nil    oz

we had 2 withdrawals:

i) out of CNT  1,295,599.385  oz
ii) Out of JPM: 592,342.216

total withdrawals 1,908,504.139   oz

We had  3 adjustments: all dealer to customer

i) CNT  1,804,473.000 oz

ii)Delaware: 318,505.054 oz

iii)Int Delaware:  434,974.339       oz

Total dealer(registered) silver: 134.732million oz

total registered and eligible silver:  395.616 million oz

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

FEBRUARY saw a LOSS of 38 contracts to stand at 301. We had 115 notices filed on MONDAY. So we GAINED 77 contracts or an additional 385,000 oz will stand for delivery on this side of the pond as they refused to morphed into London based forwards and as such they negated a fiat bonus for their effort. 

MARCH LOST a small 11,873 contracts DOWN to 47,054. April gained another 348 contracts to stand at 1117

May gained 11,047 contracts to stand at  107,479 contracts.

We have 3 trading days before first day notice Feb 26.2021. We await anxiously to see how many raptors will take delivery and move silver out of the comex. We still have not witnessed a huge migration from the March contract over to May and as such we are going to have one dilly of a delivery month for silver in the front month of March.

The total number of notices filed today for FEB 2021. contract month is represented by 171 contract(s) FOR 855,000 oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in FEB we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at  2274 x 5,000 oz = 11,370,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of FEB (301) and the number of notices served upon today 171 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the FEB standings for silver for the FEB/2021 contract month: 2274 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of FEB(301)- number of notices served upon today (171) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the Jan contract month .equals 12,020,000 oz. ..VERY STRONG FOR A NON ACTIVE  FEB MONTH.

We gained 77 contracts or an additional 385,000 ADDITIONAL oz will stand for delivery over here as they refused to morph into London based forwards..

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME 157,682 CONTRACTS // volume humongous

FOR YESTERDAY  162,555  ,CONFIRMED VOLUME//humongous 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV  RISES TO +1.62% ((FEB 23/2021)

2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO –0.50% to NAV:   (FEB 23/2021 )

Note: /Sprott physical gold trust is back into POSITIVE/1.62%(FEB23/2021)

(courtesy Sprott/GATA

3. SPROTT CEF .A   FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 19.66 TRADING 19.23//NEGATIVE 2.19

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/(this vehicle is a fraud as there is no gold behind them!)

FEB 23/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.45 TODAY: A MONSTROUS CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 12.54 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1115.40 TONNES

FEB 22/WITH GOLD UP $30.00 TODAY: STRANGE!! A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.25 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1127.64 TONNES

FEB 19/WITH GOLD UP $2.00 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1132.89 TONNES

FEB 18//WITH GOLD UP $2.60 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.79 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1132.89 TONNES

FEB 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $27.35 TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.54 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1136.68 TONNES

FEB 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $23.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORYRESTS AT 1142.20 TONNES

FEB 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.38 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1142.20 TONNES

FEB 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $15.35 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/I: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1146.60 TONNES

FEB 10/WITH GOLD UP $5.30 TODAY: ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.09 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1148.34 TONNES

FEB 9/WITH GOLD UP $4.00 TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.08 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1152.43 TONNES.

FEB 8/WITH GOLD UP $20.80 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.33 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1156.51 TONNES

FEB 5/WITH GOLD UP $20.10 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1159.84 TONNES

FEB 4/WITH GOLD DOWN $42.05 TODAY: STRANGE: HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.34 TONNES ADDED INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1159.84 TONNES

FEB 3/WITH GOLD DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1157.50 TONNES

FEB 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $27.60 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD// A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.63 TONNES FROM THE GLD//.INVENTORY RESTS AT 1157.50 TONNES

FEB 1/WITH GOLD UP $12.45 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.5 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1160.13 TONNES

JAN 29/WITH GOLD UP $9.65 TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A WITHDRAWAL  OF 4.37 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1164.80 TONNES

JAN 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.90 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.71 TONNES LEAVES THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1169.17 TONNES

JANUARY 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.85 TODAY; A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF .87 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS 1172.38 TONNES

JAN 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.15 TODAY:NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1173.25 TONNES

JAN 25.WITH GOLD DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1173.25 TONNES

JAN 22/WITH GOLD DOWN (9.50 TODAY:A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A WITHDRAWAL OF .88 TONNES FROM THE GLD//NVENTORY RESTS AT 1173.25 TONNES

JAN 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.40 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1174.13 TONNES

JAN 20/WITH GOLD UP $25.20 TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.5 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1174.13 TONNES

JAN 19/WITH GOLD UP $10.90 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 16.63 TONNES INTO GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1177.63 TONNES

JAN 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $22.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//: A WITHDRAWAL OF 10.21 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1161.00 TONNES

JAN 14.WITH GOLD DOWN $2.75 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 10.50 TONNES FROM THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1171.21 TONNES

JAN 13/WITH GOLD UP $11.65 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1181.71 TONNES

JAN 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.70  TODAY;A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD// A WITHDRAWAL OF .400 TONNES FROM THE GLD..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1181.71 TONNES

JAN 11/WITH GOLD UP $14.30 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1182.11 TONNES

JAN 8//WITH GOLD DOWN $75.70 : A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.57 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1182.11 TONNES

JAN 7/WITH GOLD UP $5.70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1186.78 TONNES

JAN 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $44.25 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1186.78 TONNES

JAN 5/WITH GOLD UP $10.05 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 17.21 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1187.95 TONNES

JAN 4/WITH GOLD UP $49.70 TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD; A DEPOSIT OF 0.88 TONNES INTO THE GLD/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1170.74 TONNES

DEC 31/WITH GOLD UP $1.45 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1169.86 TONNES

DEC//30//WITH GOLD UP $13.30 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1169.86 TONNES

DEC.29//WITH GOLD UP $1.65 TODAY: A DEPOSIT OF  2.53 TONNES  CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1169.86 TONNES.

DEC 28WITH GOLD DOWN $3.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1167.53 TONNES

DEC 24/WITH GOLD UP $6.15 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1167.53 TONNES

DEC.23/WITH GOLD UP $7.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.33 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1167.53 TONNES

DEC 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPSOIT OF 2.04 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1169.86 TONNES

DEC 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.60 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1167.82 TONNES

DEC 18/WITH GOLD DOWN 90 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1167.82 TONNES

DEC 17 WITH GOLD UP $39.35 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.33 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1167.82 TONNES

DEC 16/WITH GOLD UP $2.55 TODAY A HUGE  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES FORM THE GLD..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1170.15 TONNES

DEC 15/ WITH GOLD UP $23.75 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.67 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1171.32 TONNES//

DEC 14//WITH GOLD DOWN $10.45 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.79 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1175.99 TONNES

DEC 11/WITH GOLD UP $5.70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1179.78 TONNES

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Inventory rests tonight at:

FEB 23 / GLD INVENTORY 1115.40 tonnes

LAST;  1005 TRADING DAYS:   +181.38 TONNES HAVE BEEN ADDED THE GLD

LAST 945 TRADING DAYS// +  349.63TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY

end

Now the SLV Inventory/(this vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them!)

FEB 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS TODAY: TWO ENTRIES I) HUGE CHANGE ISN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 127,000 OZ INTO THE SLV AND THEN A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 7.801 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 611.812 MILLION OZ

FEB 22/WITH SILVER UP 74 CENTS TODAY: 2 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.322 MILLION OZ AT 3 PM AND 6.873 MILLINON OF AT 5 20 PM EST/INVENTORY RESTS AT 611.685 MILLION OZ/

FEB 19//WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 621.007 MILLION OZ//

FEB 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 22 CENTS TODAY : TWO HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.858 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV AN ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL 5.758 MILLION OZ// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 621.007 MILLION OZ//

FEB 17/WITH SILVER UP  1 CENT TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A DEPOSIT OF 83,000 OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 628.623 MILLION OZ//

FEB 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.044 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 628.530 MILLION OZ//

FEB 12/WITH SILVER UP 31 CENTS//A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.312 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 630.574 MILLION OZ.

FEB 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.858 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 634.986 MILLION OZ//

FEB 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 44 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 636.844 MILLION OZ//

FEB 9/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.19 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 17.882 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 636.844 MILLION OZ//

FEB 8/WITH SILVER UP $0.53 TODAY: A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 4.451 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 654.726 MILLION OZ//

FEB 5/WITH SILVER UP 70 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 659.278 MILLION OZ

FEB 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 0.54 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 10.079 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 659.278 MILLION OZ//

FEB 3/WITH SILVER UP 38 CENTS TODAY: A MIND NUMBING: 56.784 MILION OZ “DEPOSIT” INTO THE SLV at 3 pm AND A WITHDRAWAL OF 7.99 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV AT 5 PM//WITH THESE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 669.357 MILLION OZ//

FEB2//WITH SILVER DOWN  $2.81 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: AN UNBELEIVABLE DEPOSIT OF 18.627 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 620.563 MILLION OZ//

FEB 1/WITH SILVER UP $2.56 TODAY: A FAIRY TALE DEPOSIT OF 34.419 MILLION OZ INTO  SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 601.936 MILLION OZ//

JAN 29/WITH SILVER UP 58 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.366 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 567.517 MILLION OZ//

JAN 28/WITH SILVER UP 44 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.393 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 571.883 MILLION OZ/

JAN 27/ WITH SILVER DOWN 10CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.: A XXXWITHDRAWAL OF 3.022 MILLION OZ OF IMAGINARY SILVER// INVENTORY RESTS AT 573.277 MILLION OZ/

JAN 26/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 576.299 MILLION OZ///

JAN 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 2.044 MILLION XXXXOZ INTO THE SLV// INVENTORY RESTS AT 576.299 MILLION OZ./.

XXXXXXXXXXXXXX
FEB 23/2021

SLV INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT

611.812 MILLION OZ

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

iii) Other physical stories:

* * *

Your early TUESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED UP AT 6.4634 /

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.4690   /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 6.09 PTS OR .0.17%

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 312.81 PTS OR 1.03%

2. Nikkei closed UP 138.11 POINTS OR 0.46%

3. Europe stocks OPENED MOSTLY RED/

USA dollar index DOWN TO 90.14/Euro FALLS TO 1.2149

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: RISES TO. +.12/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 105.28/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

3c Nikkei Now  ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 62.16 and Brent: 65.51

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE CLOSED UP/OFF- SHORE: UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund  RISES TO -.30%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 0.66% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 0.38%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 0.96: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO : 0.92

3k Gold at $1809.50 silver at: 27.91   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 50/100 in roubles/dollar) 73.95

3m oil into the 62 dollar handle for WTI and 65 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 105.28 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9003 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0937 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to 0.30%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 1.362% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.183%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 7.05..

Futures Tumble As Tech Stocks, Cryptocurrencies Crash

TUESDAY, FEB 23, 2021 – 7:44

Global stocks, US equity futures and cryptocurrencies all tumbled on Tuesday as the recent surge in inflation, bond yields and commodity prices continued to hammer technology shares while investors awaited fresh reassurance from U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on the path for monetary policy in United States.

The MSCI world equity index fell 0.1% to fresh two-week lows, having earlier risen on gains in commodity-heavy equity indexes in Asia. After rising during the Asian session, S&P 500 futures also fell once Europen came online, and were last down 0.4%.

Nasdaq futures tumbled as much as 2%, and were last down 1.4% a day after the tech-heavy gauge posted its longest losing streak in four months. Heavyweight tech stocks slid premarket, with Apple -2.7%, Amazon -2.4%, Tesla -7.5%, Alphabet -1.6%. Tesla crashed 6% in pre-market trading, sliding below the $695 level at which it entered the S&P500.  Tesla shares were set to plunge into the red for the year, hit by a fall of bitcoin, in which the electric carmaker recently invested $1.5 billion.

Adding to the risk off mood, Bitcoin resumed its recent plunge, plunging as much as 17% below $46,000, down over $12,000 from recent highs after a bout of volatility highlighted lingering doubts about the durability of the token’s rally.

“The prospect of a less dovish tone from central banks, sparked by rising inflation, is causing stock traders to reduce their exposure to equities, especially overbought sectors like tech,” said Pierre Veyret, analyst at ActivTrades in London. Another concern among investors is that broad benchmarks have already priced in much of the prospective global recovery spurred by vaccines and U.S. stimulus. Alongside rising inflation, another is that central banks may eventually start reconsidering emergency programs that have supported global markets.

Europe’s Stoxx 600 was down -0.8%, sliding as much as 1.6% earlier, with Tech stocks leading losses. European tech stocks were on set for their worst day in four months, down 2.7%, and the worst-performing index in Europe, as chip-equipment makers plunged  amid market rotation out of more expensive sectors. Pandemic winners also dive. The index fell as much as 3.9% to a three-week low, the steepest intraday drop since Oct. 26. Chip- equipment makers, which have benefited amid a global shortage of semiconductors and are among the best-performing tech stocks in Europe this year, declined sharply: BE Semi -7.2%, ASMI -6.1%, ASML -3.4%. On the other end, mall operators, office landlords and events companies rose in Europe on increasing optimism about the prospects for reopening the Covid-hit economy following news that Germany mulled loosening the rules for easing lockdown restrictions. That followed the U.K. having set out an aim to gradually ease restrictions in stages over the next four months.

Here are some of the biggest European movers today:

  • Chip stocks fall on Tuesday, weighing on the Stoxx Tech Index, reflecting declines across U.S. semiconductor peers late Monday, as market rotation out of more expensive stocks and sectors gathers pace.
  • Covestro shares jump as much as 3.4% before erasing gain in Frankfurt; Commerzbank says the company published a “strong” 1Q outlook, but a cautious view on 2Q to 4Q, leaving upside to consensus.
  • U.K. domestically oriented stocks gained on Tuesday as travel and entertainment shares surged after Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced plans to reopen the economy.
  • KPN shares tumble as much as 10%, their biggest one-day drop since June 2016, as America Movil sells around EU2.2b of bonds exchangeable into shares in the Dutch phone company.
  • Adyen shares drop as much as 4.5% to a two-week low of EU2,056, after a pre-IPO investor sells shares in the payments firm.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks rose clearly unaware of the shitstorm that was about to be unleashed by European traders, with equity benchmarks in Thailand and Hong Kong the biggest gainers in the region. The SET Index jumped as much as 2%, with tourism and leisure stocks rallying the most on the gauge amid optimism over the arrival of Covid-19 vaccines and relaxation of pandemic-led restrictions. Casino operators Galaxy Entertainment Group and Sands China surged to be among the top gainers on the Hang Seng Index, after Macau reopened to quarantine-free travel from mainland China. Energy was the top-performing sector in Asia as oil surged toward $63 a barrel. Investment banks and traders predicting the market will tighten further and push prices higherTechnology was the worst performer. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index headed for its first gain in four sessions, with equity benchmarks in Australia and Singapore also rising. Stocks were lower in South Korea and Malaysia, while Japanese markets were shut for a holiday.

India stocks ended little changed, after swinging between gains and losses several times in the session. The S&P BSE Sensex closed marginally higher at 49,751.41 in Mumbai, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index added 0.2%. Both gauges had retreated more than 4% through Monday from record highs on Feb. 15. Reliance Industries Ltd. gave the biggest boost to both measures after saying it plans to spin off its oil-to-chemicals operation into an independent unit. A gauge of metal companies was the top performer among the 19 sector indexes compiled by BSE Ltd

Rising inflation bets spurred by the global economic recovery have hammered stocks in the past week. The level of angst was also reflected in various equity volatility gauges which rose to multi-week highs, while on bond markets German and U.S. yields moved in different directions, even though both remained just below the highs hit on Monday.

After being knocked off from eight-month high by European Central Bank chief Christine Lagarde signalling discomfort with the recent surge in yields, 10-year Bund yields resumed their upward trend and were last at -0.297%.

In rates, Treasuries steadied on Tuesday, below Monday’s one-year high of 1.394% and were last at 1.360%. Yields were cheaper by ~1bp across long-end of the curve, steepening 5s30s by ~2bp after the 5s30s touched the highest level in more than six years. A wider bear-steepening move in under way in bunds, which trade 4bp cheaper vs Treasuries. The curve steepened, pivoting around a little-changed 10-year sector. Month-end re-balancing flows are moving into focus as traders anticipate rotation into bonds. Auction cycle begins with 2-year notes, while Fed Chair Powell delivers semi-annual monetary policy report.  Most peripheral and semi-core spreads widen to Germany; Italy outperforms, tightening ~1bps at the long end

Traders will be waiting to hear from Fed Chair Jerome Powell when he testifies to the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday and the House Financial Services panel the following day. He’s expected to be reassuring on the central bank’s dovish stance when he gives his congressional testimony at 1500 GMT in Washington, and to play down the risk of inflation despite the size of President Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief proposal.

“Fed Chair Jay Powell will be torn today,” ING analysts led by Padhraic Garveywrote in a anote. “A bit of inflation is a good thing; it’s what the Fed has wanted. But too much anticipation of it is not good, as it tightens policy prematurely.

“If there were already any expectations that Powell could try to calm down rates, then (Lagarde’s remarks) have just further cemented them,” said Giuseppe Sersale, strategist and fund manager at Anthilia in Milan.

In currency markets, the dollar briefly dropped to its lowest since Jan. 13 before advancing against most G-10 peers, with traders waiting to see if Powell will address the selloff in Treasuries. The pound led G-10 gains, nearing $1.41 as investors digested the U.K.’s plan to open up the economy. The Canadian dollar outperformed most peers as oil prices continued their ascent.  The dollar index was up 0.1% at 90.137, with the euro flat at $1.215.

Commodity prices strengthened again with Copper extending gains, while WTI crude rose toward $63 a barrel. Oil prices jumped by more than $1 at one point, underpinned by optimism over COVID-19 vaccine rollouts and lower output as U.S. supplies were slow to return after a deep freeze in Texas shut in crude production last week. Brent crude was last up 0.7% at $65.7 a barrel after earlier hitting a fresh 13-month high of $66.79, while U.S. crude rose 0.8% to $62.17 a barrel.

“Oil has been caught up in the broader commodities move higher, with a weaker USD proving constructive for the complex,” ING strategists led by Warren Patterson said in a note. “Meanwhile, there is also a growing view that the oil market is looking increasingly tight over the remainder of the year”.

Copper prices meanwhile hit a 9-1/2-year high as tight supply and solid demand from top consumer China boosted sentiment.

To the day ahead, and the highlight will be the aforementioned appearance of Fed Chair Powell before the Senate Banking Committee. Otherwise, data releases from Europe include UK unemployment for December and the final Euro Area CPI reading for January, while from the US there’s the Conference Board’s consumer confidence indicator for February, the Richmond Fed’s manufacturing index for February and the FHFA house price index or December. Lastly, earnings releases include Home Depot, Medtronic and Intuit.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.3% to 3,860.50
  • SXXP Index down 1.2%
  • MXAP up 0.1% to 216.65
  • MXAPJ up 0.3% to 725.81
  • Nikkei up 0.5% to 30,156.03
  • Topix up 0.5% to 1,938.35
  • Hang Seng Index up 1.0% to 30,632.64
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.2% to 3,636.36
  • Sensex little changed at 49,720.21
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.9% to 6,839.17
  • German 10Y yield up 4 bps to -0.30%
  • Euro little changed at $1.2155
  • Kospi down 0.3% to 3,070.09
  • Brent futures up 1.2% to $66.03/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.2% to $1,806.15
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.1% to 90.14

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • The U.K.’s finance minister Rishi Sunak is set to spend billions of pounds in extra support for the economy over the next four months, as pandemic curbs pushed unemployment to its highest level in almost five years
  • Copper rose to the highest level in over nine years as a rally in industrial metals showed little sign of abating amid a global recovery from the pandemic
  • European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said her institution is “closely monitoring” the market for government bonds, in a sign that she might act to prevent rising yields undermining the economic recovery from the pandemic
  • Oil extended gains near $62 a barrel with investment banks and traders predicting the market will tighten further and push prices higher
  • Commodities rose to their highest in almost eight years amid booming investor appetite for everything from oil to corn. The Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index, which tracks price movements for 23 raw materials, rose 1.6% on Monday to its highest since March 2013
  • In Brazil, investors unloaded everything from state- run companies to bonds and the currency after President Jair Bolsonaro ousted the head of oil giant Petrobras, sparking worries of government meddling and a break with his administration’s market-friendly pledges
  • Japan is planning to lift the state of emergency in places outside the Tokyo metropolitan area earlier than planned, with falling numbers of coronavirus cases easing the strain on hospitals, the Asahi newspaper reported Tuesday
  • U.S. deaths passed the 500,000 mark on Monday. Global deaths related to Covid-19 have surpassed 2.46 million, with the U.S. leading all countries with more than twice the number recorded by the next closest, Brazil, according to Bloomberg’s virus tracker

A quick look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asian equity markets eventually traded mostly positive after weathering the initial choppy price action following on from the mostly negative lead from Wall St where sentiment was pressured amid underperformance in tech and continued increases in yields as US money markets brought forward bets of a Fed rate increase and priced in a 70% chance of a 25bps hike by end-2022. ASX 200 (+0.9%) shrugged off the early tech-led declines and found support from strength in the commodity-related sectors especially energy stocks after oil prices continued to rally and as financials benefitted from the rising yield environment. KOSPI (-0.1%) lagged its peers in a resumption of this year’s consolidation above the 3,000 level and with a miss on earnings from drug manufacturer Celltrion weighing on other domestic pharmaceutical heavyweights. Hang Seng (+1.6%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.4%) began indecisive following a tepid liquidity effort by the PBoC which injected a net CNY 10bln, while US-China tensions continued to linger as US House Speaker Pelosi suggested all options are on the table in holding China accountable for human rights abuses and State Department spokesman stated that recent comments by China Foreign Minister Wang Yi reflected the continued pattern of Beijing averting the blame. However, Chinese markets then gained with Hong Kong leading the advances as the Chinese oil majors reacted to further upside in crude prices and with HSBC leading the banks amid its earnings release in which it reported a decline in FY net and revenue but announced a resumption of its interim dividend. As a reminder, Japanese markets were closed in observance of the Emperor’s Birthday holiday.

Top Asian News

  • China Must Reform Hong Kong Election Rules, Carrie Lam Says
  • Axiata Tower Unit Stake Sale Is Said to Stall After Myanmar Coup
  • Japan Seen Ending Virus Emergency Early Outside Tokyo Region
  • HSBC’s Asia Bankers Do Better Than Peers as Bonus Pool Cut 20%

European equities kicked off the session with mild gains across the board, but the momentum then reversed and major bourses now trade notably lower (Euro Stoxx 50 -1.4%) following on from a mixed APAC handover. US equity futures have also given up overnight gains, with the tech-led NQ (-1.8%) again the underperformer during early European trade – as traders and investors seemingly rotate out of “stay at home” tech stocks and into more commodity and recovery-driven names. Meanwhile in Europe, UK’s FTSE 100 cash (-0.8%) was initially resilient, and remains comparatively so to a degree, after UK PM Johnson provided recovery stocks with a boost as he unveiled a roadmap out of lockdown – with the ‘finish-line’ currently on June 21st. This announcement has seen a surge in airline bookings, with easyJet (+8.2%) reporting that summer flight bookings rose 337% W/W and holiday bookings surged 630%. In turn, assisting regional airlines with impetus as IAG (+6%) and Ryanair (+4.3%) cheer the light at the of the tunnel, whilst EU airliners Lufthansa (+7%) and Air France-KLM (+5%) are dragged higher in tandem – note, this would also be bullish for the energy complex amid higher jet fuel demand. As such, the gains across the oil complex has also translated to gains among the FTSE 100’s oil giants Shell (+1.7%) and BP (+2.8%), whilst the extended rally in base metals, namely copper, has again bolstered UK miners – with index heavyweights Rio Tinto (+1.7%) and BHP (+3%) reaping rewards. The performances mentioned above is reflected in the regional sectors, with Travel & Leisure topping the charts, closely followed by Oil & Gas, Basic Resources and Banks. The latter is supported by the overall higher yield environment, whilst HSBC (-1.3%) conformed to the broader sentiment after topping FY/Q4 pretax and FY CET1 ratio forecasts and announced a dividend. However, the group downgraded the language surrounding its ROTE target. Tech is the notable laggard in tandem with the performance in NQ futures, with healthcare also residing towards the bottom of the pile. In terms of movers, the top gainers in the region consists of the most-hit pandemic stocks including the likes of Cineworld (+11%), airliners, aircraft manufacturers and hotel names, with the other side of the spectrum is comprised of the COVID-beneficiaries including Ocado (-5%) and Delivery Hero (-4%).

Top European News

  • BlackRock Strategists Debut OW Call on U.K. Stocks, Lift Europe
  • French Have a $146 Billion Savings War Chest From Covid Crisis
  • Aviva Sells French Arm for $3.9 Billion in Key Deal for CEO
  • Sunak Plans More Covid Aid for U.K. as Unemployment Climbs

In FX, the Dollar has lost a bit more of its yield advantage, but not all attraction as a safe-haven it seems given that the index has regained some composure after a more pronounced pull-back from recent recovery highs. The DXY is holding around 90.000 within a 89.941-90.194 range ahead of US housing data, consumer confidence, regional Fed surveys, Discount Rate meeting minutes, the first semi-annual testimony from chair Powell and the Usd 60 bn 2 year note auction that could set the tone for this week’s issuance remit. Note also, the Greenback is getting a boost from another abrupt and sustained reversal in crypto currencies like Bitcoin that is back below the Usd 50k mark and has been down to Usd 45k vs its new circa Usd 58.5k record peak.

  • GBP/EUR/NOK/CAD – Relative G10 outperformers, or at least displaying some resilience in face of the Buck bounce, as Sterling eyes 1.4100 in wake of UK PM Johnson’s 4 step plan to reopen the nation, and the Euro finds support around 1.2150 where technical levels form a cluster with hefty option expiry interest (50 DMA at 1.2154 today, 50% Fib of the fall from 1.2349 in January to 1.1952 current m-t-day low at 1.2151 and 1.6 bn at the 1.2155 strike). Meanwhile, further upside in oil, with WTI touching Usd 63/brl and Brent above Usd 66.75 at one stage is helping the Norwegian Crown to pare losses between 10.3425-10.2825 parameters against the Euro and keeping the Loonie anchored to 1.2600 vs its US counterpart in advance of comments from BoC Governor Macklem.
  • NZD/AUD – Both off best levels as broad risk sentiment sours, but the Kiwi has unwound declines vs the Aussie from around 1.0827 following weaker than forecast NZ retail sales and another boost for the latter via base metals. Hence, Nzd/Usd is holding firmer on the 0.7300 handle than Aud/Usd in relation to 0.7900 before construction work done, wages, RBNZ policy meeting and press conference.
  • JPY/CHF/SEK – The Yen could not maintain momentum through 105.00 overnight, perhaps due to the lack of Japanese participation on the Emperor’s Birthday market holiday, but the Franc is underperforming again and back beneath 0.9000 with little support from mildly less deflationary Swiss producer and import prices on a y/y basis. Indeed, Eur/Chf is firmly above 1.0900 and has nudged 1.0949 in keeping with upside in Eur/Sek after recent approaches towards 10.0000 failed to breach the round number and the cross retraces amidst more dovish-leaning Riksbank remarks (Bremen latest) and a rise in Swedish unemployment.

In commodities, WTI and Brent front month futures have given up intraday gains as sentiment across the market deteriorated during early European trade. WTI now resides closer to USD 62/bbl (vs high USD 63/bbl) and Brent has relinquished its USD 66/bbl handle (vs high USD 66.79/bbl). However looking at the bigger picture, the complex remains elevated by underlying fundamentals still being present such as OPEC+ support and vaccination progress. Moreover, production in the oil-pumping state of Texas is returning at a slower pace than previously anticipated. In turn, due to this weather event and Texas producing just under half of all US oil, a distortion in this week’s inventory and production figure may be seen. On the demand side, UK PM Johnson announced the UK’s roadmap for lifting restrictions against COVID moving ahead. This announcement translates into a bullish prospect for jet fuel demand, as within the plan it highlights the opening of holidays and ability to travel abroad in the Summer. Both the supply and demand factors could be regarded as the driving force behind the firmer price action overnight, whilst sentiment took helm in early hours. Notable tail-risks on the table surrounds the UK lockdown plan, which is data driven and hence, if the figures are not favourable it could see a change to the roadmap moving forward. Also, the OPEC+ confab is next week (JMMC on the 3rd and OPEC+ on the 4th), and participations will pay close attention to the sentiment between Saudi Arabia & Russia. With the COVID outlook looking increasingly favourable, the conservative Saudi Arabia and hawkish Russia may clash heads, again, thus a clear downside risk is present heading into the policy-setting meeting. Elsewhere, precious metals seem to be influenced by Buck, with spot gold relatively contained just above USD 1800/oz and spot silver resides around USD 27.85/oz (vs high USD 27.94/oz) . Turning to base metals, LME copper remains above USD 9,000/t but trades off best levels and edging closer to session lows as the firming Dollar and destination sentiment weigh on the recovery-driven metal. More on copper, Chile’s state-owned Codelco, the world’s largest copper producer, states the recent spike in the price of the red metal could increase miner’s costs. Lastly, Dalian iron ore futures fell 2% after top steel-producing city Tangshan issued a second-level pollution alert forcing mills to curb production.

US Event Calendar

  • 9am: Dec. S&P/Case-Shiller US HPI YoY, prior 9.49%
  • 9am: Dec. S&P CS Composite-20 YoY, est. 9.90%, prior 9.08%
  • 9am: Dec. FHFA House Price Index MoM, est. 1.0%, prior 1.0%
  • 9am: 4Q House Price Purchase Index QoQ, prior 3.1%
  • 10am: Feb. Conf. Board Consumer Confidence, est. 90.0, prior 89.3;
  • 10am: Feb. Richmond Fed Index, est. 16, prior 14

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Yesterday had more twists than your average Shakespearian drama in what was a pretty topsy-turvy day for global markets. Equities sold off again on the back of continued concerns over inflationary pressures, while sovereign bonds swung between gains and losses with yields around 3bps higher in the US but around 3bps lower across Europe. Meanwhile, commodities hit 7-year highs, Bitcoin traded in a 17% range, and Tesla (-8.52%) technically tipped into a bear market.

Looking at the moves in more depth, all of the major equity indices on both sides of the Atlantic lost ground, with the S&P 500 (-0.77%) experiencing its 5th consecutive decline and the VIX index of volatility rising +1.40pts to its highest level in nearly 3 weeks. As it happens, the last time the S&P saw that many straight moves lower was exactly a year ago during the last week of February 2020, when global markets saw their first major pandemic-led sell-off. Europe’s STOXX 600 (-0.44%) outperformed, in part due to its smaller exposure to Technology companies. The tech-heavy NASDAQ composite fell -2.46% in its worst day so far this month with some of its largest names seeing heavy losses, namely Tesla (-8.52%), Apple (-2.98%) and Microsoft (-2.68%). Tesla is now only up c.1% YTD having been nearly +25% less than a month ago.

Tesla and Bitcoin are increasingly tied together and the latter had a crazy day, trading down -16.53% at one point before closing -4.21% in its worst daily performance this month. It’s not clear if the moves were prompted by a delayed reaction to an Elon Musk tweet on Saturday in which he said that the bitcoin did “seem high”. Bitcoin prices are down a further -10.54% this morning to $49,145 and are approaching yesterday’s lows again.

The risk-off sentiment has come to a halt in Asia this morning though with the Hang Seng (+1.67%), Shanghai Comp (+0.59%), Kospi (+0.27%), Asx (+0.86%) and India’s Nifty (+1.14%) all up. Japanese markets are closed for a holiday. Futures on the S&P 500 are also up +0.54% and European ones are pointing to a positive open too. Yields are fairly flat.

Back to yesterday and it was another strong day for oil prices with WTI up +3.80% and Brent crude gaining +3.70% to finish over $65/bll, this helped the energy sector continue to outperform (S&P Energy +3.46%) and fuel the cyclical rotation trade. The strength in oil prices followed news of accelerating drawdowns of global inventories and improving demand conditions. WTI (+1.62%) and Brent (+1.82%) continue to climb this morning with Brent crude trading at $66.43, the highest since November 2018. Elsewhere, copper advanced further (+1.64%) yesterday to its highest level in nearly a decade. In fact, the Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index also rose +1.64% to reach its highest level since March 2013, on the back of the move in industrial metals and the jump in oil prices.

For sovereign bond markets, it was a much more divergent performance, with Europe seeing a reasonable decline in yields whilst those on 10yr Treasuries actually rose +2.9bps to 1.365%. That was beneath its intraday high of 1.393% though, but still marked its highest closing level in nearly a year. Today, all eyes will be on Fed Chair Powell, who’s testifying before the Senate Banking Committee when delivering the semiannual monetary policy report to Congress. According to our US economists, Powell is likely to reiterate his messages that a “patiently accommodative” monetary policy is important, and that the US is still “very far” from a strong labour market. Real yields have continued to climb ahead of his appearance, however, with 10yr real yields hitting a 3-month high yesterday of -0.79%.

I did a CoTD showing real yields back over 200 years and highlighted that the only time real yields are negative for any period of time are around episodes of high debt. Given today’s debt levels, it’s likely real yields will stay ultra low for as far as the eye can see even if we’re seeing some cyclical pressure now. If real yields got anywhere close to long-term norms, debt sustainability would be seriously questioned and hence the Fed would likely step in well before. Financial repression and QE will likely be alive and well for the rest of most of our careers. See the piece here.

Over in Europe, yields were on track to hit their highest in months as well, but swung round mid-session to move lower following comments from ECB President Lagarde. Notably, she said that the ECB were “closely monitoring the evolution of longer-term nominal bond yields”, which isn’t generally a phrase you’d use when you welcomed the recent rise. Given that 10yr Bunds are still -0.34% it’s a remarkable situation that one can be getting uncomfortable with the move. Anyway, yields fell in direct response, with those on 10yr bunds (-3.4bps), OATs (-3.6bps) and BTPs (-2.6bps) all ending the day lower. Gilts (-1.9bps) continued to underperform bonds elsewhere however, with the spread between their 10yr yields over bunds widening to their biggest level in nearly a year.

Elsewhere, news that President Bolsonaro fired the head of Petrobras – a state-run oil company – roiled markets there, as investors took the move as a sign that some of the Brazilian President’s market-friendly initiatives may be rolled back. Brazilian markets saw their worst day since the autumn, as the Ibovespa index lost -4.87%, with state-run companies leading the declines. It was the biggest loss for the equity index since October of last year and Petrobras, the third-largest component of the index, finished the day down -21.19%. Meanwhile, the Brazilian 10yr yield rose +18.0bps to close at its highest level since late-March.

On the pandemic, studies added to a growing body of evidence that the vaccination programmes are beginning to have an impact. One in Scotland published yesterday, albeit not peer-reviewed yet, found that the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine reduced hospital admissions by 94% with a single dose 4-6 weeks after vaccination, while the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine led to an 85% reduction. On top of this, a separate analysis from Public Health England found that a single dose of the Pfizer vaccine reduced the risk of catching infection by 85% after the second dose.

These positive announcements yesterday coincided with Prime Minister Johnson’s moves to outline the roadmap out of the English lockdown, which will begin to be eased from March 8, at which point schools would be reopened. However, it was a fairly cautious path overall and the stay-at-home message will remain until March 29, at which point people will be able to gather in groups of up to 6 or 2 separate households outdoors. Golf will return on this date – a bit later than I’d hoped. Furthermore, it won’t be until April 12 at the earliest that non-essential retail and gyms could reopen, along with outdoor hospitality, while indoor mixing between households will have to wait until May 17 at the earliest. As we said at the top, all social restrictions are hoped to be abandoned by June 21st just as the nights slowly start to get darker again!!

Elsewhere in Europe, the direction of travel seemed to be towards tougher restrictions, with Italy announcing an extension of travel curbs between regions until March 27, and authorities in France announced a lockdown for the next two weekends in Nice. Separately, Bloomberg reported that the German government were considering a further €50bn in debt spending, or around 1.5% of GDP, with the report saying that finance minister Scholz would propose suspending the constitutional debt brake for a third year. Speaking of Germany, the Ifo’s latest business climate indicator rose to a stronger-than-expected 92.4 in February (vs. 90.5 expected). That’s a 4-month high and was supported by the expectations measure coming in at 94.2, which also beat expectations for a 91.7 reading.

In the US, the FDA announced that drugmakers would not have to undergo large efficacy trials on booster shots to combat the variants, if needed, and that they would instead be based on immunogenicity studies, where researchers give vaccines to people and then conduct lab tests to measure the immune response. This is similar to how the annual flu vaccine is tested and produced. Also on vaccines, Moderna got positive feedback from the US government to get more doses of its Covid-19 vaccine from each individual vial it produces. This could expand supplies, which continues to trail demand dramatically. In terms of restrictions, New York continues to ease curbs on businesses as theatres will be allowed to reopen in mid-March with reduced capacity. Meanwhile in Asia, Japan is planning to end the state of emergency in six prefectures including Osaka and Kyoto at the end of the month, a week earlier than planned.

To the day ahead, and the highlight will be the aforementioned appearance of Fed Chair Powell before the Senate Banking Committee. Otherwise, data releases from Europe include UK unemployment for December and the final Euro Area CPI reading for January, while from the US there’s the Conference Board’s consumer confidence indicator for February, the Richmond Fed’s manufacturing index for February and the FHFA house price index or December. Lastly, earnings releases include Home Depot, Medtronic and Intuit.

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)TUESDAY MORNING/ MONDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 6.09 PTS OR 0.17%   //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 312.81 PTSOR 1.03%    /The Nikkei closed UP 138.11 POINTS OR 0.46%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.70%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP AT 6.4634 /Oil UP TO 62.16 dollars per barrel for WTI and 65.51 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MOSTLY RED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.4634. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.4690 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS //TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED//CORONAVIRUS/PANDEMIC/TRUMP TESTS POSITIVE FOR COVID 19  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3 C CHINA

CHINA/USA

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

A very important read from Daniel Lacalle as he explains why Europe will not benefit from an inflation spike due to structural problems such as overcapacity .

(Daniel Lacalle)

Europe Will Not Benefit From An Inflation Spike

TUESDAY, FEB 23, 2021 – 3:30

Authored by Daniel Lacalle,

Inflationists are happy. Inflation expectations rise to five-year highs and some rub their hands with the idea that their grand plan to create inflation by decree is going to be a success.

Inflation, the tax of the poor, applauded by no consumer anywhere ever.

The discourse of inflationists is simple and, therefore, farcical. If inflation increases, the debt “deflates”, entering into a process of deleveraging as liabilities of states, companies and families loses value each year. “If inflation rises to 4%, every year, we have 4% less debt,” I was told in a television program. I thought “great, and if it’s 50% in two years we have no debt.” A joke.

The problem of the Eurozone is very different and will not be “solved” by inflation.

The Eurozone’s debt repayment capacity has weakened due to accumulated deficits, deterioration in cash flows, and the creditworthiness of public and private agents.

The problem with the simplistic argument of consensus inflationism is that it does not happen. There must be a warning of the risk of “trusting” in an inflationary exit to the liquidity trap.

  • With rising inflation, real interest rates and interest expenses rise, in countries that do not reduce debt in absolute terms because deficits are structural.
  • Tax revenues do not grow with inflation because overcapacity remains, most of the inflation increase comes from higher energy and input prices, and this creates weakness of margins. Anyone who thinks that real wages are going to grow at or above inflation when productivity growth is close to zero and with the stock of unemployment that still exists in the eurozone, including furloughed jobs, must be joking.
  • Input costs increase more than sales, because of overcapacity, aging population, and higher imported oil, copper and zinc prices. Imports rise, and the ability to pass-through to final prices diminishes.
  • “Existing” debt -stock- reduces its value due to inflation, but deficits and interest expenses may rise.

Low prices actually helped to cement the Eurozone recovery after the 2009 crisis. If it were not for low CPI, it would have been much more challenging for families to endure the bubble-led crisis and subsequent real salary decrease and unemployment rise.

Anyone who thinks that inflation would have prevented the crisis is ignoring the factors behind the Eurozone recession. The questionable Phillips curve link between CPI and unemployment was debunked decades before.

Of course, the inflationist alchemist is confident that these risks – which they cannot deny – will be canceled-out by the European Central Bank’s monetary policy, which will have to repurchase everything that is issued to prevent real rates from rising alongside inflation.

When artificially manipulated rates fall below real inflation, credit growth collapses, real productive investment falls and, with it, the velocity of money. In fact, the only investment and credit that is encouraged by this policy is high risk and very short-term oriented to compensate for the difference between reality and manipulated rates.

Families in Europe have managed to reduce their indebtedness admirably in these years. And the vast majority of their wealth is in deposits. If we think that an aging population is going to buy more in real terms because prices rise, we have not learned anything from the evidence of the past. But some will say that this time is different.

The problem with the Eurozone is that it is trying to solve structural problems with any measure except the one that fixes the perverse incentive that perpetuates stagnation. The constant transmission of wealth from the efficient and the saver to the indebted and inefficient.

The EU tries to fix the economy without touching the mechanisms that slow it down. High government spending, low productivity, and poor competitiveness.

end

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

RUSSIA/ISIS

Russia says that Jihadists are planning a false flag simulated chemical attack in Idlib to get Biden’s attention

(zerohedge)

Russia Says Jihadists Are Planning “Simulated” Chemical Attack In Idlib To Get Biden’s Attention

MONDAY, FEB 22, 2021 – 21:40

In what feels like a throwback scenario to 2017 which marked the first time Trump bombed Syria over al-Qaeda’s unverified claims of a government chemical attack on a “rebel”-held town in Idlib province, Russia’s military is now warning that anti-Assad jihadists are planning a new “false-flag operation against civilians” involving chemical weapons in Idlib.

The allegation of a major ‘provocation’ in the works originated in official comments days ago from the deputy chief of the Russian de-escalation mission in Syria, Rear Admiral Vyacheslav Sytnik. The statements are being featured predominantly in Russian and Iranian state media sources, which say the incident will be blamed on Damascus, ultimately in order to gain the attention of the newly in office Biden administration.

Via Reuters

“According to our information, militants of illegal armed groups are plotting a provocation to blame Syria’s government forces for delivering strikes at settlements in thee Idlib de-escalation zone,” Admiral Sytnik said.

At a moment it’s widely believed the Biden White House is internally divided over Syria and Mideast policy in general, with little future strategy having been announced publicly, any level of ‘mass casualty incident’ is sure to gain Washington’s attention.

Here are the details of Adm. Sytnik’s statement via Russian media sources and their translation:

Citing intelligence reports, Rear Admiral Vyacheslav Sytnik, deputy chief of the Russian de-escalation mission in Syria, claimed that militants belonging to Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) have transported containers with toxic agents to the settlement of Tarmanin. The Al-Qaeda-affiliated terrorists plan to use the chemicals, believed to be chlorine, to “simulate” an attack resulting in casualties among local residents, Sytnik said. He added that the militants hope to then blame the incident on Syrian government forces. 

HTS is formally designated as a terrorist organization by the US government as well as internationally. Yet despite this, the US and Western allies have frequently condemned any attempts of Syrian or Russian military forces to take back the northwestern province of Idlib.

Idlib has been held by HTS and other al-Qaeda factions since its takeover in 2015, reportedly with CIA help via an operations room in Turkey.

Assad with Russia’s help has been the clear victor over most of Syria, with a northeast oil-and-gas concentrated chunk of the country occupied by the US and its Kurdish allies (SDF), and the northwest (Idlib) occupied by al-Qaeda (HTS), and northern towns now under Turkish control.

The Russians have been getting increasingly vocal over the past month that some level of ‘provocation’ is coming soon, despite Syria having long been out of international headlines.

“The warning comes several weeks after the reconciliation center revealed that it had been tipped off that HTS militants and members of the ‘White Helmets,’ a self-styled civil defense group, were planning to stage a chemical attack in a town 11 kilometers (seven miles) northwest of Aleppo,” RT summarizes of recent allegations.

Meanwhile, despite the Syrian government under Assad being the ‘victor’ over the conflict, loyalist areas are now being smashed by US-led sanctions that are meant to choke the economy. Thus the economic war was greatly ramped up the moment that Western-led regime change efforts were acknowledged as having ultimately failed.

end
IRAN
The Ayatollah Khamenei’s statement that Iran might pull the trigger on 60% enrichment will not doubt provoke Israel into action
(zerohedge)

Ayatollah Khamenei Says Iran Might Pull Trigger On 60% Uranium Enrichment

MONDAY, FEB 22, 2021 – 22:00

With all eyes on the big question of whether Iran and the United States will actually sit down at the same table in EU-sponsored talks to restore the terms of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action nuclear deal (JCPOA), Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has just upped the ante with statements that surely also raised the alarm in Tel Aviv. 

Khamenei declared on Monday that Tehran might continue enriching uranium up to 60% – which would blow far past the current 20% and put the country on the cusp of being able to produce a nuclear weapon. He further vowed the Islamic Republic will “never” yield to US pressure over what Iran has long claimed is actually a peaceful nuclear energy program.

Via Reuters

“Iran’s uranium enrichment level will not be limited to 20%. We will increase it to whatever level the country needs… We may increase it to 60%,” state media quoted Ayatollah Khamenei as saying. He added that if Iran “wanted to” pursue a nuke, then “no one could stop Tehran from acquiring it.”

He still stressed his longtime position that Iran is not in fact pursuing nukes, which he’s previously said violates “Islamic principles”, but that neither the US nor “Zionist clown” – a reference to Israel – to do anything about it if Tehran wanted to.

If indeed Iran does eventually pull the trigger on 60% enrichment, this would likely provokeIsrael into mounting some kind of preemptive attack.

Over the past year Israel was believed behind multiple ‘mysterious’ and unexplained explosions and fires and Iranian nuclear facilities.

In the recent past Israeli military leaders have threated to take action militarily if intelligence believed Iran was close to obtaining a nuke. Likely the Biden administration would intervene to warn against such action, however, especially given Washington now appears ready to engage in EU-brokered talks toward restoring the nuclear deal.

END
TURKEY
Turkey continues on its crusade on PKK and YPG
(South Front)

Turkey’s Eternal Crusade On PKK Continues

TUESDAY, FEB 23, 2021 – 2:00

Via SouthFront.org,

Turkey is unrelenting in its crusade against the Kurdistan Worker’s Party and the People’s Protection Units, as two parts of a whole.

Ankara’s forces carry out frequent operations within and without the country, targeting both the Kurdistan Worker’s Party’s (PKK) and the People’s Protection Units (YPG)’s interests and members. The Turkish government dubs both groups as terrorists, and does not shy away from invading the sovereign territory of other countries to pursue and “eliminate” their members and positions.

As a result, Turkey frequently encroaches on Syrian and Iraqi territory, and even has observation posts set up to target its Kurdish enemy.

It strongly opposes the Syrian Democratic Forces, a group whose core is comprised of the YPG, and receives heavy US support.

Most recently, between February 10th and the 14th, Turkey began its most recent operation in northern Iraq. In particular, it took place on the Gara Mountain in the Duhok Governorate of the Kurdistan Region. The result was such that both the PKK and the Turkish Armed Forces claimed victory, following the operation. The accounts of what transpired vary.

Turkey said it killed 53 PKK members, and captured 2. It admitted to losing 3 soldiers, while 4 of its troops were wounded in battle. According to the PKK, Turkey lost at least 30 soldiers, and dozens more were injured. A sort of collateral damage involved 13 Turkish hostages whose corpses were discovered in a cave network in the mountain area. Turkey and the US claimed that these were largely civilians, and some intelligence officers. The PKK claimed these were 13 Turkish military hostages. Turkey’s Defense Minister claimed many weapons and ammunition, as well as other equipment were seized.

In the aftermath, Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan vowed to expand military operations which showed progress to other regions where threats are still significant.

Ankara’s aggressive and assertive actions are making many of the involved parties dissatisfied. Regardless it keeps carrying them out and shows no intention of stopping.

In Iraq, the Al-Nujaba Islamic Resistance Movement issued a warning to the Turkish Army against invading the country any longer. It said that it would suffer the same fate as the American Army whose convoys and positions continue to be targeted. Iraq maintains the posture that Turkey must withdraw fully from its sovereign territory. It should simply pack up its bases in the north of the country and vacate the premises.

In response, Turkey maintains that the West, and Iraq’s government aren’t doing enough to counter the alleged terrorist threat. Ankara claims it has its right of self-defense, even if it requires invading other countries.

Operation Claw Eagle 2 was of questionable success, if the numbers by the PKK are to be considered, against those provided by Turkey. These operations, however, are unlikely to stop, both in Iraq and Syria.

Erdogan seems hell-bent on solving all “security issues” and expanding Turkish activities in regions that are deemed threatening to Ankara’s interests.

*  *  *

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END

A very stupid move:  you do not poke the “bear

(zerohedge)

Biden Readies His First Major Sanctions On Russia For Navalny Crackdown

TUESDAY, FEB 23, 2021 – 12:36

Early this month cities across Russia were hit by large, well organized and closely reported mass demonstrations in support of jailed Kremlin critic and anti-Putin activist Alexei Navalny. Over recent weekends, however, both the rallies and international media interest in them appear to have lost momentum and waned.

But not wanting to let a political opportunity to punish Russia go to waste, the Biden administration is said to be preparing major economic penalties over Navalny’s 2.5+ year jail sentence recently handed down by a Moscow court for probation violation. The US is also poised to slap penalties on the Russian government over allegations that intelligence poisoned Navalny with nerve agent back in August, which kicked off the whole saga, bringing his name from relative obscurity into the international mainstream.

AFP via Getty Images

A new report in Politico says the Biden White House “is expected to coordinate a sanctions rollout with European allies in the coming weeks, according to people familiar with the matter.”

One senior admin official was cited as saying while not offering specifics, “Suffice it to say… we won’t stand by idly in the face of these human rights abuses.”

Currently all “options” for sanctioning Russia are under review, which can include the following:

The package proposed three types of sanctions: Magnitsky Act sanctions on the individuals who detained Navalny; sanctions under the Chemical and Biological Weapons Control and Warfare Elimination Act of 1991 (CBW Act); and sanctions under Executive Order 13382 — which is “aimed at freezing the assets of proliferators of weapons of mass destruction and their supporters,” according to the State Department.

The scant foreign policy statements issued by President Biden thus far have focused heavily on Russia. He’s unleashed a hail of criticism on everything ranging from election ‘interference’ to the Navalny affair to bullying Ukraine and even the “bounties to kill Americans in Afghanistan” narrative.

The US review and impending rollout of new sanctions comes after on Monday the EU announced punitive measures on four Russian officials in response to Navalny’s prison sentence. The four are said to be close to President Putin and were involved in decision-making related to the Navalny saga, which has further sunk Russia-Europe relations to their lowest point in the last few years, particularly since the Ukraine and Crimea crisis.

6.Global Issues

CORONAVIRUS/UPDATE

total garbage!!

Ivermectin taken one or twice a month will prevent any COVID 19 attack.  Far better than a vaccine

(zerohedge)

Fauci Says US May Soon Ease Rules… For The Vaccinated

TUESDAY, FEB 23, 2021 – 11:15

Anthony Fauci, the nation’s top infectious diseases specialist (and highest-paid government employee), says that while we may still be wearing masks in 2022, those who have received a COVID-19 vaccine may be able to enjoy ‘eased’ public health protocols, according to Bloomberg.

“When you say, wait a minute, if I’m fully vaccinated, and my daughter comes in the house and she’s fully vaccinated, do we really” need the same strict rules? Fauci said during a Tuesday interview with CNN. “Common sense tells you that, in fact, you don’t have to be as stringent in your public health measures.”

That said, Fauci – President Biden’s top medical adviser, said he didn’t want to get ahead of the CDC’s advice, which he said could be forthcoming, and should “relax the stringency of the recommendations,” particularly when it comes to family members who have been vaccinated.

When host Alisyn Camerota asked Fauci whether fully vaccinated people should be able to get together with family indoors, Fauci responded that he would be comfortable with that, but that some of the discussions currently taking place “were not very comfortable.

According to Fauci, however, the CDC wants to “sit down, talk about it, look at the data and then come out with a recommendation based on the science.”

On Monday, Fauci recommended that fully vaccinated people still shouldn’t dine indoors or go to theaters yet.

Watch:

END

Michael Every on today’s most important topics.

Tech Tock, Tech Tock, Tech Tock

TUESDAY, FEB 23, 2021 – 8:25

By Michael Every of Rabobank

“How do you defuse a time bomb? Help, I need answers really qui…”

Yesterday saw US tech stocks tumble. Some of the biggest names took a big dip, and Bitcoin, the apparent wave of the future, receded nearly 20% from its recent peak. One pities the blue-chip CFO having to think about marking that crypto asset to market on their balance sheet: no firm would ever do something so rash in such volatile times, would they?

Meanwhile, US 10-year yields surged again to 1.39%, retracing, and then deciding that, no, they had been right earlier, to stand at 1.37% at time of writing. It’s almost as if the prospect of higher borrowing costs is negatively correlated with the performance of firms who base both their businesses and CEOs on Hooli/Gavin Belson from TV’s ‘Silicon Valley’ (“What is Hooli? Excellent question. Hooli isn’t just another high-tech company. Hooli isn’t just about software. Hooli, Hooli is about people. Hooli is about innovative technology that, makes a difference. Transforming the world as we know it. Making the world, a better place, through minimal message oriented transport layers.”) It’s also almost as if Bitcoin might be correlated with one ‘Belson’, who had just put crypto on his CFO’s balance sheet, saying that the price of said asset “seems high”. Or perhaps, more likely but less-well reported, with the US Treasury Secretary repeating that most of the activity that takes place in it is “extremely inefficient” and “illicit”. Tech tock, tech tock, tech tock(?)

What’s interesting is that the USD also sold off.So, briefly, nobody seemed to want to hold anything: not stocks, not bonds, not Bitcoin, and not the dollar. They are instead moving into commodities as the safest place to be, which is about as low-tech –and dystopian– a future as one can imagine. (I refer readers back to my previous Mad Max references of mohawked brokers in bondage masks and studded leather hotpants all screaming “Gasoline!” at each other.)

That means one wants to own AUD, for example. And Australians themselves still only want to own houses, of course. It’s boom-a-rama in that sector, with the ABC news last night underlining how even rural areas in Tasmania just saw sales prices rise 40% in 6 months. The RBA could arguably save themselves a lot of money by just publishing the daily paper property supplement ‘Domain’ instead of their reports focusing on the Aussie ‘macro economy’.

The problem –and it is a problem—remains that this is not the basis for a sustainable recovery, just a frenetic short-term scrambleEveryone, with Australia at the vanguard on housing, has painted themselves into a corner with this latest leg in a decades-long ‘boom’. What we have begotten is a series of global Hoolis, and housing now unaffordable everywhere to at least half the overall population, and the vast majority of the young, and to a mortgage debt-load so heavy that any rate increases –which Aussie markets are now actively pricing for!–  will bring the whole thing tumbling down.

Unless wages magically turn up to save the day. On which note, the ABC news last night, as just one example, was talking about how despite the unemployment rate in Australia nearly being back to the pre-Covid normal, vast numbers of people are still on the ‘JobKeeper’ scheme that ends on 28 March; and, separately, it explained how a government employer wage subsidy for younger workers was seeing a serious financial incentive put in place to fire full-time staff earning AUD75,000 (in their example) and replacing them with three youngsters all earning AUD25,000. Sticking with tech(ish) retorts: very wage pressure; so salaries; many money – you’d have to sew eight of them together into a human centi-aussie-pede to afford a single Aussie house at a level which would allow borrowing rates to rise again in the future.

Of course, this dilemma is true everywhere to varying degrees. As Bloomberg reports solemnly today: “US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell appear wary of signs of froth in financial markets, even as they press ahead with economic stimulus measures that are elevating the euphoria.” Indeed, just a few weeks after two IMF officials warned of a “sense of complacency” permeating markets, Yellen told CNBC TV viewers yesterday that there “may be sectors where we should be very careful.” Was she referring to stocks, bonds, crypto, and the dollar?

Was ANY of what is now unfolding anything but entirely predictable? We are all very much Keynesians again now. Yet Keynes spoke of the need to “euthanize the rentier” via low interest rates: we have eulogised them that way!

Bloomberg then goes on to bewail that “the US has fewer regulatory tools to head off asset bubbles and excessive leverage than many other countries.” Back to tech analogies: do the regulatory tools to stop such rentier-eulogising appear from the sky, like the Black Slab in ‘2001’, for primitive markets to gather round and jabber at, before then ascending to a higher level of evolutionary development? Or are they ultra-complex manmade things that only a few Gavin Belsons of this world can understand?

It’s not rocket science. We all know what happens when you don’t juice the system;  and we all know what happens when you juice the system the way we are. Logically, the only way to prevent what we see today would be de facto credit rationing – which used to be the norm in capitalist economies under Bretton Woods, until the neoliberal reforms that built our present, wobbly global structure. For example, you could slash rates to zero, but cap the overall level of borrowing in a given sector, like mortgages, which given supply and demand for funds would then mean households would pay a higher price for money. (China tries some similar things today in its own way.)

Would that create a whole new set of problems? Sure! First, the current bubble would burst. But that’s going to happen anyway – or society will, with a lag. Second, a lot of international capital flows wouldn’t be needed – so de facto deglobalisation. So one can see why this is therefore ignored. But fewer and fewer voters seem to like this globalisation – and what other *logical* answer is there?

Today we hear from the Fed’s Powell at his semi-annual testimony to Congress – and I am sure nothing at all that I have mentioned above will be spoken of. We can expect something more Belson-esque –“What those in dying business sectors call failure, we in tech know to be pre-greatness” — or else that ‘teching’ sound in the background is going to be followed by a very, very loud bang even more quickly than would otherwise be the case.

END

7. OIL ISSUES

end

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings TUESDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.2149 DOWN .0015 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS//CORONAVIRUS/PANDEMIC/TRUMP POSITIVE WITH VIRUS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES / MOSTLY RED

USA/JAPAN YEN 105.128 UP 0.274 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.4084   UP   0.0016  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/

USA/CAN 1.2614 UP .0024 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  TUESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL BY 15 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.2149 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE DOWN 6.09 PTS OR .17% 

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 312.81 PTS OR 1.03% 

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0,70%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL MOSTLY RED

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL MOSTLY RED

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 312.81 PTS OR 1.03% 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 6.09 PTS OR .17% 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.70% 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 138112  POINTS OR 0.46%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1810.40

silver:$27.96-

Early TUESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 1.362% !!! UP 1 IN POINTS from MONDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

The 30 yr bond yield 2.183 UP 1  IN BASIS POINTS from MONDAY night.

USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 90.14 UP 13 CENT(S) from  MONDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers TUESDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing  TUESDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.25% UP 3 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.12.%  DOWN 0   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.37%//UP 1 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:0.64 UP 5 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 27 points higher than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES TO –.30% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 0.94% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR TUESDAY

Closing currency crosses for TUESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.2151  DOWN     .0013 or 13 basis points

USA/Japan: 105.17 UP .167 OR YEN UP 17  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.4096 UP .0029 POUND UP294  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar UP 5 basis points to 1.2607

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The USA/Yuan,  CNY: closed DOWN AT 6.4665    ON SHORE  (DOWN)..

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.4667  (YUAN DOWN)..

TURKISH LIRA:  7.08  EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.12%

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 0 IN basis points from MONDAY at 1.357 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.182 UP 1 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 90.11 UP 10  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for TUESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 5.36  0.08%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 90.51 POINTS OR .65%

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 5.61 POINTS 0.16%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 140.70 POINTS or 1.73%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 88.40 POINTS OR 0.38%

WTI Oil price; 61.67 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 65.29 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE RISES:    73.89  THE CROSS LOWER BY 0.47 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE HIGHER BY 47 BASIS PTS)

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES  TO –.30 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OILPRICE 4:30 PM :  61.49//

BRENT :  65.80

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 1.361..up 0 basis points…

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.202 up 2 basis points..

EURO/USA 1.2149 ( DOWN 14   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:105.27 UP .265 (YEN DOWN 27 BASIS POINTS/..

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 90.13 UP 12 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.4113 UP 45  POINTS

the Turkish lira close: 7.11

the Russian rouble 73.92   UP 0.39 Roubles against the uSA dollar. (UP 39 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.2586 UP 25 BASIS pts

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.30%

The Dow closed UP 13.75 POINTS OR 0.04%

NASDAQ closed DOWN 29.03 POINTS OR 0.22%


VOLATILITY INDEX:  22.78 CLOSED DOWN .67

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 0.175%//libor dropping like a stone

USA trading today in Graph Form

Momo Dumps, Powell Pumps, Crypto Slumps

TUESDAY, FEB 23, 2021 – 16:01

A bad day for people with the word “wood” in their name (too soon?).

Tiger tumbled his car and Cathie’s ARKK Invest crashed even harder…

Cryptos were crushed.

Bitcoin back below $50k…

Source: Bloomberg

Ether ended back below $1500…

Source: Bloomberg

Momentum crashed…

Source: Bloomberg

And while stocks were clubbed like a baby seal at the cash market open…

Powell’s promise of moar of whatever it takes (which is exactly what he has now said consistently for a year) sparked the standard buying panic, lifting the Dow (orange), S&P (green), and Nasdaq (blue) back to unchanged, Small Caps (red) ended red…

NOTE: Europe’s open also saw major selling pressure

“Did you not hear a single word of what I just said? Buy the f**king dip!”

Nasdaq found support at its 50DMA…

“Most Shorted” Stocks puked by the most since March 2020 at the open, only to be squeezed back higher…

Source: Bloomberg

Energy stocks ended the day best with Cons Disc worst but everything levitated after the initial puke…

Source: Bloomberg

TSLA tumbled but dip-buyers also screamed in there too…

Could be worse – could be Workhorse…

Small Cap Biotechs had a bad day…

Source: Bloomberg

Bonds were mixed with the belly outperforming the tails (30Y +3bps, 5Y -2bps, 2Y unch)…

Source: Bloomberg

Despite all the chaos in stocks, 10Y Yields traded in a very narrow range on the day…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar ended lower are tumbling along with stocks at the equity open…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold was lower on the day, but held above $1800… just…

Oil prices continued higher with WTI back above $62 ahead of tonight’s API inventory data….

Finally, the most-crowded longs held by hedge funds has erased all its losses relative to the massive WSB short-squeeze (of the “most-shorted” stocks)…

Source: Bloomberg

And if Biden and his pals want $1.9 trillion stimulus, they better get it done soon before this pandemic is over…

Source: Bloomberg

a)Market trading/THIS MORNING/USA

Stonks Are Puking At The Open As Even WallStreetBets Turns Bearish

TUESDAY, FEB 23, 2021 – 9:50

US equity markets are in freefall at the cash open. After an ugly overnight session for Nasdaq and Small Caps, everything got clubbed like a baby seal as the cash market opened.

Nasdaq has plunged to its 50DMA…

As TSLA crashes…

The drop comes as negative sentiment surges on WallStreetBets

And that is crushing the “most shorted” stocks…the biggest daily drop since March 2020

Source: Bloomberg

It would appear the “unclenching” has begun!

Some have also suggested that this the Churchill SPAC debacle is also weighing on liquidity,..

b)MARKET TRADING/USA//Non farm payrolls

ii)Market data/USA

Inflation is manifesting itself into USA home prices:  fastest pace since 2014

(zerohedge)

US Home Prices Accelerate At Fastest Pace Since 2014

TUESDAY, FEB 23, 2021 – 9:03

According to the latest data from S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller, US home prices in the top 20 cities rose at a stunning 10.10% year-over-year – its fastest acceleration since 2014…

Source: Bloomberg

That is a price rise that is five times The Fed’s ‘mandated’ level of inflation.

Phoenix, San Diego and Seattle posted the biggest gains in prices. Nationally, the Case-Shiller index jumped 10.4% in December, also the biggest surge since 2014.

Historically low mortgage rates have fueled a pandemic housing rally, with scant inventory of homes to buy helping to boost prices.

As in the housing boom of the mid-2000s, home prices are rising faster than personal incomes. Changes in the Home Price Index and the Income Index from 1991 to 2020:

Will The Fed never learn? This pump-a-thon didn’t end well before… and with exponentially more debt and leverage now, it will end in even more wealth transfer and socialism for the rich…and this time, the paeons pitchforks are already sharpened.

We also note that the moratoriums on evictions and foreclosures are also distorting the market. There’s no question these policies are needed to keep people from being displaced in the midst of a pandemic, but they will eventually have to be lifted and it is not clear what will happen when they do.

END

Home Prices Soar At Over 5 Times The Fed’s Inflation Target In All US Cities

TUESDAY, FEB 23, 2021 – 9:40

The Fed’s most frequent lament is that no matter how many trillions in bonds (and stocks and ETFs) it buys or how much liquidity it forehoses into the market, it just can’t push inflation higher.

Well, here’s an idea: maybe all the central-planning megabrains at the Marriner Eccles building and 33 Liberty Street can take a break from whatever circle jerk they are engaged in right now, and look at the latest Case Shiller numbers which showed not only that home prices surged at the fastest pace in seven years, rising at a double-digit pace for the first time since 2014…

… but that for the first time since the financial crisis, the annual price increase in every major US MSA (according to Case Shiller there are 20 of them) rose by at least 7.7% Y/Y (in the case of Las Vegas) and as much as 14.4% in Phoenix, meaning that the average home prices across all of the US is now rising at over 5 times the Fed’s stated inflation target, and even the cheapest US MSA is rising at nearly 4 times the Fed’s inflation goal.

Why does this matter? Simple: Because if – as Joseph Carson mused last month – CPI measured actual house prices, inflation would be above 3% right now.

For those who missed it, here again is the explanation:

“Actual” consumer price inflation is rising during the recession. That runs counter to the normal recessionary pattern when the combination of weak demand and excess capacity works to lessen inflationary pressures.

The main source of faster consumer price inflation is centered in the housing market. The Case-Shiller Home Price Index posted a 7% increase the last year, more than twice the gain of one-year ago.

The sharp acceleration in house price inflation represents the fastest increase since 2014 and runs counter to the patterns of the past two recessions. During the 2001 recession house price inflation slowed by one-third, while in the Great Financial Recession housing prices posted their largest decline in the post-war period, falling over 12% nationwide.

The consumer price index (CPI) does not show in house price inflation because it uses a non-market rent index to capture the trends in housing inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) estimates that the non-market rent index has increased 2.5% in the past 12 months, or 450 basis points below the rise in house prices.

If actual house prices were used in place of rents core CPI would have registered a 3% gain in the past year, nearly twice the reported gain of 1.6%.

If aggregate price measures did not exist house prices would be one of the most important measures to gauge inflation and the proper setting of official interest rates. That’s because house price cycles include easy credit/financial conditions, excess demand, and inflation expectations, three key ingredients of inflation cycles.

Rising consumer price inflation is added to the list of unique features of the 2020 recession. Others include an increase in corporate debt levels instead of debt-liquidation and rising equity prices instead of share price declines.

If the 2020 recession has economic and financial features that normally appear during economic recovery what does that imply for the next growth cycle? The debt overhang at the corporate and federal debt should impede the next growth cycle. And if the cyclical rise in housing demand is occurring in recession it can’t be repeated during recovery.

The next economic cycle will be filled with unique tipping points, and no one should assume that policymakers can control or offset them.

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

The saga of WeWork.  Now Neumann is near a deal to settle with Softbank for 1/2 billion dollars, 1/2 of the amount originally agreed upon.  He still retains a major ownership stake.  Now a SPAC seems interested in this private operation

(zerohedge)

WeWork’s Neumann Nears Deal To Settle With Softbank For $500MM, Retain ‘Major’ Ownership Stake

TUESDAY, FEB 23, 2021 – 1:00

The former CEO and co-founder of WeWork, the tech/real-estate private company which saw its IPO implode back in 2019 (before talk of a possible second bite at the apple resurfaced in recent weeks) is reportedly nearing a settlement with Softbank in a closely-followed case.

Per WSJ, Neumann could be nearing a settlement with Softbank, the Japanese telecom giant/VC behemoth, which takes out long-term leases and then divvies it up on shorter terms after completing hip renovations, cut thousands of jobs and withdrew from dozens of buildings around the world. The settlement would allow SoftBank to avoid paying some of the money it agreed to pay to Neumann back in the fall of 2019, while still allowing Neumann to walk away with $500MM, and retain his status as a major shareholder in WeWork.

For those who haven’t been closely following this legal saga, Softbank rescued WeWork when it came to the company’s rescue after WeWork’s IPO fell apart in 2019. But one of the strategies it used to recapitalize the company involved buying back, or rather, promising to buy back, shares owned by insiders, including Neumann, which left the firm with a majority stake, and the freedom to make sweeping management changes.

Originally, the deal struck between Softbank and WeWork back in late 2019 involved a commitment to spend $3B to buy shares from Neumann and other WeWork insiders.

But, according to terms being discussed currently, Softbank would spend roughly $1.5B to buy the shares of early WeWork investors and employees, including nearly $500MM to purchase shares from Neumann. Neumann – who was widely panned for the $185MM golden parachute consulting agreement he pocketed during the chaos of 2019 – would only walk away with half of what Softbank initially promised him, meaning his hopes for regaining billionaire status have  potentially been snuffed out – at least, unless the WeWork SPAC becomes a reality and a success.

That’s right: Instead of $1B, Neumann would only walk away with $500MM, according to WSJ’s sources. Bloomberg points out that the price of the shares that Neumann has agreed to sell hasn’t changed since 2019. However, SoftBank will only walk away with half the original number.

Under the terms of the potential settlement, SoftBank would purchase half of the WeWork shares it originally agreed to buy in 2019, said one the people, who asked not to be identified because the talks are still private. That means Neumann would be able to sell close to $500 million in stock, and that SoftBank would pay about $1.5 billion overall. The shares are being sold at the same price agreed upon in 2019, the person said.

The deal would mean Neumann sells about a quarter of his position in WeWork and remains a major shareholder in the company, the person said, while noting the agreement isn’t finalized and could still change. The agreement could also pave the way for a second attempt at a WeWork public listing, the person added. A spokesman for Neumann and a spokeswoman for SoftBank declined to comment. The Wall Street Journal reported on the talks earlier.

Despite the comity once shared between Softbank and WeWork, negotiations have reportedly been tense, and the relationship between Neumann and his former patron, billionaire Softbank Chairman Masayoshi Son, has reportedly soured.

As the SPAC boom rolls on, WeWork has been in talks with a SPAC called BowX Acquisition and the two sides could reach a deal in the coming weeks, the people said.

WeWork is infamous for seeing its private-market valuation implode over the span of a few weeks during the summer of 2019 as WSJ, Bloomberg, Reuters and others reported on a stream of leaks purportedly emanating from the investment bankers working on the deal and their clients, who were seriously dissatisfied with the price that the bankers were purportedly demanding for the shares.

There is no guarantee WeWork will reach a deal with BowX, and other financing and SPAC options are still on the table, the people cautioned. But with the SPAC boom rolling on seemingly with no end in sight, few would be surprised, at this point, if WeWork does eventually trade in the public markets

END

Massive Explosion Rocks Cameron, Texas After Train Collides With 18-Wheeler

TUESDAY, FEB 23, 2021 – 10:38

Bloomberg reports a train carrying coal collided with an 18-wheeler in Cameron, Texas, Tuesday morning.

Local television station KVUE said the incident occurred around 7 a.m. local time.

The Milam County Sheriff’s Office said there was no timing when the fire would be under control.

Milam County Precinct 2 Commissioner Donald Shuffield said homes in the surrounding area were evacuated. So far, no injuries have been reported.

A massive fireball erupts after the train smashed into an 18-wheeler.

More scenes from the incident area.

Video of the fire has emerged.

Watch Live: Train collides with 18-wheeler in Milam County, Texas

*This story is developing… 

end

The $1.9 trillion Biden stimulus plan is moving forward — here are the biggest parts of it

Feb. 22, 2021 at 5:17 p.m. ET

MarketWatch

Direct payments, state and local government aid and pandemic jobless-benefit boosts make up more than $1 trillion of package

The House Budget Committee approved on Monday a $1.92 trillion bill to carry out President Joe Biden’s coronavirus relief plan, the first step toward likely House passage by the end of the week.

The vote was 19-16. Texas Democrat Rep. Lloyd Doggett voted with Republicans in opposition to the bill but a spokeswoman for him later said he had cast his vote in error and supported the legislation.

The bill will go next to the House Rules Committee, where it could be changed, before hitting the House floor late in the week.

As a spinoff bill from the fiscal 2021 budget resolution, it will be immune to the filibuster in the Senate and can pass with 50 Democratic votes and that of Vice President Kamala Harris as the tiebreaker.

Here are the some of the biggest provisions and how much the Congressional Budget Office expects them to cost in outlays or reduced revenues, or both, over 10 years:

Direct payments to households: Similar to previous rounds of $1,200 and $600, these payments would be $1,400 per tax filer ($2,800 for couples) and $1,400 per eligible dependent. The payments would start phasing out at an individual income of $75,000, with eligibility based on 2019 or 2020 tax returns. Price tag: $422.3 billion.

Aid to state, local and tribal governments: This would provide money for states and local governments, as well as tribal governments, to offset tax-collection losses and increased spending resulting from the coronavirus pandemic. Price tag: $350 billion.

Pandemic-related unemployment benefit provisions: Three pandemic-related unemployment assistance programs — a $400-a-week federal add-on to benefit checks, extended federal benefits for those who have exhausted state benefits and a program for jobless benefits for gig- economy workers — would be extended. Price tag: $245.8 billion.

Aid to help reopen schools: The Elementary and Secondary School Emergency Relief Fund would provide money to schools to help with reopening and making them safer to attend. Price tag: $128.6 billion.

Child tax credit expansion: The existing child tax credit of $2,000 per child would be enlarged for one year to $3,000 ($3,600 for children under 6) and made refundable, meaning tax filers would still get the money even if the credit is larger than their tax bill. It would be phased out starting at $75,000 for individual filers and the Treasury Secretary would be directed to send advance payments monthly starting in July. Price tag: $109.2 billion.

Multiemployer pension plan aid: The Pension Benefit Guaranty Program would be able to give grants to underfunded pension plans guaranteed by the PBGC. The PBGC revolving fund to help pay full benefits when pensions fall short is set to be exhausted in 2027 under current law. Price tag: $81.5 billion.

Minimum-wage increase: The bill would boost the federal minimum wage from the current $7.25 an hour to $9.50 and gradually to $15 in 2025. Price tag: $45.4 billion.

FEMA: The Federal Emergency Management Administration would get money to help it respond to major disasters and cover coronavirus-related funeral expenses. Price tag: $47 billion.

Coronavirus testing: The bill would provide money for increased detection, diagnosis and monitoring of coronavirus infections and money for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for genomic sequencing and disease surveillance. Price tag: $48.5 billion.

Aid for metro transit systems: The Federal Transit Administration would be able to give grants to transit agencies to help them pay for operating expenses and maintain their payrolls. Price tag: $27.9 billion.

-END-

iv) Swamp commentaries

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

While Fed politicians, which they are now, see no inflation because they cannot stop QE lest Biden falls, the markets on Monday screamed, “INFLATION!”

Copper surges above $9,000 as major deficit drives record rally  https://t.co/Esob6J0g9C

March gasoline hit a low of 99.92 on November 1, 2020.  It hit 184.52 yesterday (+85%) – and the usual drive season buying is still months away!

Energy commodities led a broad commodity rally on Monday.  Tech stocks got hammered on the rotation out of paper and into stuff.  The dollar and bonds declined sharply.  The DJTA rallied sharply on hope for higher air and land-shipping costs.  The DJIA rallied modestly on Disney (+4.5%), Chevron (+3.4%), Caterpillar (3.32%) and Dow (+3%).  Bank stocks rallied sharply on the prospect of higher interest rates.

New York City reverses on de Blasio’s decision to close Trump-run ice rinks, after resident backlash    https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/finance/new-york-city-stops-de-blasios-plan-close-trump-owned-ice-rinks

John Kerry ‘colluded’ with Iran to undermine Trump, report says
Report from 2018 said Kerry engaged in ‘shadow diplomacy’ to save Iran deal
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/john-kerry-iran-trump-biden-washington-times

When asked why Biden has not held a solo press conference and when would he hold one, Biden Press Sec Psaki would not give a reason or timeframe.  Joe’s garbled Covid statement on Monday provides a reason why Biden is being sequestered and perhaps why DC is still being guarded by the military:
https://twitter.com/FogCityMidge/status/1363990736887160835

Supreme Court Declines to Hear Pennsylvania Election Dispute Cases
Chief Justice Roberts, along with Justices Kavanaugh and Barrett, were among the six justices voting to deny review.  It would have only taken the vote of one of those three to have accepted the case…The Justices avoided having to resolve this conflict by declining to take the case…
https://redstate.com/shipwreckedcrew/2021/02/22/breaking-supreme-court-declines-to-hear-pennsylvanian-election-dispute-cases-n331028

@JackPosobiec: The Pennsylvania Supreme Court’s decision violated the Constitution.” – Clarence Thomas.  Clarence Thomas is pointing out that absentee ballot fraud is a tradition in Philadelphia… Clarence Thomas makes it clear in his excellent dissent that holding high-integrity elections is a matter of “national importance” not just for 2020 but for our republic to function.

Justice Thomas’s Blazing Dissent in Pennsylvania Election Case is One for the Ages
“By doing nothing, we invite further confusion and erosion of voter confidence. Our fellow citizens deserve better and expect more of us.”…
https://beckernews.com/read-justice-thomass-blazing-dissent-in-pennsylvania-election-case-is-one-for-the-ages-37016/

@Techno_Fog: Justice Thomas gets it right on the SCOTUS refusal to hear the PA election case.  If state officials exceeded their authority in making changes to the election laws (and they did):  “We need to put an end to this practice now before the consequences become catastrophic.”

@NicAtNigh: The Supreme Court wouldn’t even bother to hear a case where rouge judges usurped the constitutional authority of the Pennsylvania legislature and established their own election laws like some kind of dictatorship.  Thanks for making us feel more confident in our elections.

@HansMahn>https://nypost.com/2021/02/22/biden-ag-pick-garland-says-theres-room-for-gun-control/

Merrick Garland: Portland Courthouse Riots Not ‘Domestic Terrorism’ Because Took Place at Night    https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2021/02/22/watch-merrick-garland-capitol-riot-domestic-terrorism-not-portland-courthouse-riot/

Merrick Garland dodges questions over allowing for completion of Durham probe
https://saraacarter.com/merrick-garland-dodges-questions-over-allowing-for-completion-of-durham-probe/

@DailyCaller: Sen. HAWLEY: “Do you believe that illegal entry at America’s border should remain a crime?”  GARLAND: “I just haven’t thought about that question… I don’t know of a proposal to decriminalize but still make it unlawful to enter.”

@JackPosobiec: Garland is now saying he will help Congress draft laws to restrict free speech online

The AP’s Matt Lee slams Biden spokesman Ned Price for taking credit for Trump administration’s Russia policy   https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1364019715346227202

Forbes: ‘It’s Like Gangster Stuff’: More New York Politicians Accuse Cuomo of Threatening Behavior      https://www.forbes.com/sites/andrewsolender/2021/02/20/its-like-gangster-stuff-more-new-york-politicians-accuse-cuomo-of-threatening-behavior/

Poll: Most Voters Consider Joe Biden a ‘Puppet of the Radical Left’  https://t.co/wpKvMK1QVF

Congress Escalates Pressure on Tech Giants to Censor More, Threatening the First Amendment
In their zeal for control over online speech, House Democrats are getting closer and closer to the constitutional line, if they have not already crossed it… https://greenwald.substack.com/p/congress-escalates-pressure-on-tech

George Orwell in “1984”: “The past was erased, the erasure was forgotten, the lie became the truth.

Well that is all for today

I will see you TUESDAY night.

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