MARCH 15 (the ides of March)//GOLD CLOSED UP $8.84 TO $1730.40//SILVER UP 35 CENTS TO $26.21//ANOTHER GOOD ADVANCE IN GOLD STANDING AT THE COMEX TO 25.75 TONNES/SILVER STANDING 54 MILLION OZ//ANOTHER HUGE RUN ON GOLD (BOTH REGISTERED AND ELIGIBLE GOLD DEPARTED) IN SILVER ANOTHER 1.5 MILLION OZ LEAVES THE ELIGIBLE CATEGORY//CORONAVIRUS UPDATE//VACCINE UPDATES//BORDER CRISIS EXPLODES/STIMMY CHECKS COMING NEXT WEEK//NEXT STIMULUS: BIDEN’S NEW GREEN DEAL//MORE TEXAS BAKNRUPTCY FILINGS// NEWT GINRICH LOCKED OUT OF TWITTER//MORE SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT!///

GOLD:$1730.40 UP  $8.84   The quote is London spot price

Silver:$26.21. UP  $0.35   London spot price ( cash market)

PLATINUM AND PALLADIUM PRICES BY KITCO

PLATINIUM  $1209.00 UP $11.00

PALLADIUM:2301.00 UP $24.00. PER OZ

Closing access prices:  London spot//GOLD AND SILVER

i)Gold : $1731.50  LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

ii)SILVER:  $26.25//LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

Editorial of The New York Sun | February 1, 2021

end

Editorial of The New York Sun | February 1, 2021

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BITCOIN MORNING QUOTE  $54,000,  DOWN 1400 dollars

BITCOIN AFTERNOON QUOTE.:$56,627  UP 734 DOLLARS .

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GLD AND SLV INVENTORIES:

Gold

WITH GOLD UP $8.85  AND NO PHYSICAL TO BE FOUND ANYWHERE:

WITH ALL REFINER CLOSED//MEXICO ORDERING ALL MINES SHUT:   WHERE ARE THEY GETTING THE “PHYSICAL?

WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING HUGE WITHDRAWALS WHETHER GOLD IS UP OR DOWN.

IT SEEMS TO BE THAT IN GOLD, THE BANK OF ENGLAND WANTS ITS GOLD LEASE BACK EVEN THOUGH THE GOLD IS IN THE B OF E VAULTS.  THE RISK OF DEFAULT BY THE GLD IS TOO GREAT FOR THEM SO THEY NO DOUBT THEY ARE CANCELLING THEIR LEASES WITH GLD

(THE SAME CAN BE SAID FOR SILVER AS JPMORGAN CALLS IN ITS LEASES TO SLV)

A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//:A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF: 3.20 PAPER TONNES FROM THE GLD.

GLD: 1,052.07 TONNES OF GOLD//

Silver

WITH SILVER UP 35 CENTS TODAY: AND WITH NO SILVER AROUND

NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//

SLV: 592.438  MILLION OZ./

xxxxx

GLD closing price//NYSE 162.20 UP $0.71 OR  0.44%

XXXXXXXXXXXXX

SLV closing price NYSE 24.35  UP $0.32 OR 1.33%

 
 

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

THE COMEX OI IN SILVER FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 898 CONTRACTS FROM 156,630 DOWN TO 155,732, AND  FURTHER FROM A NEW RECORD OF 244,710, (FEB 25/2020. THE LOSS IN OI OCCURRED WITH OUR $0.23 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX RAID IN PRICING ON FRIDAY. IT SEEMS THAT THE LOSS IN COMEX OI IS  DUE TO A CONSIDERABLE BANKER AND ALGO  SHORT COVERING !//HUGE REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//.. COUPLED AGAINST A FAIR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. WE ALSO HAD ZERO/MINOR LONG LIQUIDATION  AND A STRONG INCREASE STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR MAR. WE HAD A STRONG NET LOSS IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 189 CONTRACTS  (SEE CALCULATIONS BELOW). 

WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A FAIR  NUMBER OF  COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE:  700,, AS WE HAD THE FOLLOWING ISSUANCE:  MARCH  0 MAY:  700 AND ZERO ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE 700 CONTRACTS. THE BANKERS ARE NOW BEING BITTEN BY THOSE SERIAL FORWARDS (EFP’S CIRCULATING IN LONDON)AS THEY ARE NOW BEING EXERCISED AND COMING BACK TO NEW YORK FOR REDEMPTION OF METAL.  THE COST TO SERVICE THESE SERIAL FORWARDS IS HIGH TO OUR BANKERS  BUT THEY HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO ISSUE A FEW OF THEM!

HISTORY OF SILVER OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR THE PAST 26 MONTHS.

 

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

7.32     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

2.630     MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOV.

20.970   MILLION OZ  FINAL STANDING IN DEC

5.075     MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JAN

1.480    MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN FEB

23.005  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAR

4.660  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR APRIL

45.220 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAY

2.205  MILLION OF FINAL STANDING FOR JUNE

86.470 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JULY.

6.475 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN AUGUST

55.400 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN SEPT

8.900 MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT.

3.950 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN NOV.

46.685 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR DEC.

6.890 MILLION FINAL STANDING FOR JAN 2021

12.020  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR FEB 2021

54.410 MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING FOR MARCH 2021

FRIDAY, AGAIN OUR CROOKS USED COPIOUS PAPER TRYING TO LIQUIDATE SILVER’S PRICE …AND THEY WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.23) ).. AND, OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE ANY SILVER LONGS.  WE HAD A TINY NET LOSS  OUR TWO EXCHANGES (189 CONTRACTS). NO DOUBT THE TOTAL LOSS IN OI IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES WERE DUE TO i) MONSTROUS BANKER/ALGO SHORT COVERING// STRONG REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//.  WE ALSO HAD  ii)  A  FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS 2) A STRONG INCREASE IN  STANDING FOR SILVER  FOR MAR, iii) FAIR COMEX OI LOSS AND iv) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION //.YOU CAN BET THE FARM THAT OUR BANKERS  ARE DESPERATE TO LIQUIDATE THEIR HUGE SHORT POSITIONS IN SILVER..

WE ARE BEGINNING TO WITNESS A LACK OF EXCHANGE FOR GOLD PHYSICALS UNDERWRITTEN DUE TO PREMIUMS STARTING TO REAPPEAR IN THE FUTURE PRICE OF GOLD VS LONDON SPOT. THE COST TO THE BANKERS IS JUST TOO GREAT TO ENGAGE IN THESE VEHICLES ONCE THIS OCCURS.

 
 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

MAR

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY /FOR MONTH OF MAR:

12,056 CONTRACTS (FOR 11 TRADING DAY(S) TOTAL 12,056 CONTRACTS) OR 60.280 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1096 CONTRACTS OR 5.48 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF MAR: 60.280 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON.

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF MAR: 60.280. MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON.

JAN EFP ACCUMULATION FINAL:  113.735 MILLION OZ

FEB EFP ACCUMULATION FINAL:   208.18 MILLION OZ (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

MAR EFP ACCUMULATION SO FAR: A STRONG: 60.280 MILLION OZ  (DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)

RESULT: WE HAD A FAIR SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 889, WITH OUR TINY  $0.23 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ///FRIDAY .…THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A FAIR SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 700 CONTRACTS WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS.

TODAY WE LOST A TINY SIZED 189 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES (WITH OUR $0.23 LOSS IN PRICE)//

THE TALLY//EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

i.e  700 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s)TOGETHER WITH A FAIR SIZED DECREASE OF 898 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND HAPPENED WITH OUR $0.23 LOSS IN PRICE OF SILVER/AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $25.86 //FRIDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY. 

FOR THE NEW MAR.  DELIVERY MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 3 NOTICE(S) FOR  15,000, OZ OF SILVER.

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018. AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.70//TODAY’S RECORD OF 244,705 WAS SET WITH A PRICE OF: 18.91 (FEB 25/2020)

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 

GOLD

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 1738 CONTRACTS TO 465,966, AND FURTHER FROM OUR NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE  DECREASE IN COMEX OI OCCURRED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE  OF $3.25///COMEX GOLD TRADING/FRIDAY.WE MUST HAVE HAD HUGE BANKER/ALGO SHORT COVERING ACCOMPANYING OUR HUMONGOUS SIZED EXCHANGE FOR  PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION.. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG ADVANCE IN GOLD STANDING  AT THE COMEX TO 25.754 TONNES FOR MARCH..

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $3.25 WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S FAILED RAID ATTEMPT!!

WE HAD A VOLUME OF 0    4 -GC CONTRACTS//OPEN INTEREST  0//

WE HAD A HUGE SIZED GAIN  OF 10,775 CONTRACTS 33.52 TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES..

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A HUMONGOUS SIZED 12,513 CONTRACTS:

CONTRACT . FEB:0,  APRIL:  7513 AND JUNE:  5000  ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO//TOTAL: 12,513.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 465,966. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EXCHANGE DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 10,775 CONTRACTS: 1738 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 12,513 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 11,208 CONTRACTS OR 34.861 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:

WE HAD A HUMONGOUS SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (12513) ACCOMPANYING THE SMALL SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI  (1738 OI): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES:  10,775 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1 ) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AS OUR BANKERS ARE RUNNING FROM DODGE AND CONSIDERABLE ALGO SHORT COVERING ,2.) STRONG ADVANCE STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR THE FRONT MAR. MONTH T0 25.754 TONNES3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION,  /// ;4) SMALL COMEX OI LOSS AND 5) HUMONGOUS ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL  ...ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR  LOSS IN GOLD PRICE TRADING/FRIDAY//$3.25!!. (FAILED RAID)

WE ARE BEGINNING TO WITNESS A LACK OF EXCHANGE FOR GOLD PHYSICALS UNDERWRITTEN DUE TO PREMIUMS STARTING TO REAPPEAR IN THE FUTURE PRICE OF GOLD VS LONDON SPOT. THE COST TO THE BANKERS IS JUST TOO GREAT TO ENGAGE IN THESE VEHICLES ONCE THIS OCCURS.

We have now switched to GOLD for our spreaders!!

 

FOR DETAILS ON THE SPREADING EXERCISE HERE IS A BRIEF OUTLINE:

 

SPREADING OPERATIONS/NOW SWITCHING TO SILVER  (WE SWITCH OVER TO GOLD ON NOV  1)

SPREADING OPERATION FOR OUR NEWCOMERS:

FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS:

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED IN GOLD  AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF APRIL.

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEW, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE SPREADERS AND THE CRIMINAL ELEMENT BEHIND IT:

 HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

 

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR GOLD..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR GOLD.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

.

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO GOLD AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAR. HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL FOR SILVER:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF MAR. BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN GOLD WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (APRIL), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

 
 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2020 INCLUDING TODAY

MAR

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF MAR : 44,666, CONTRACTS OR 4,466,600 oz OR 138.93 TONNES (11 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 4060 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 11 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 138.93 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2020, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 138.93/3550 x 100% TONNES =3.911% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO DATE:
 
 
JANUARY: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)
 
FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..THUS EFP’S IN SILVER INCREASING AND GOLD EFP’S DECREASING
 
MARCH:.138.93 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN//EQUAL TO JANUARY)

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 898 CONTRACTS FROM 156,630 DOWN TO 155,732 AND FURTHER FROM OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 3/4 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

THE FAIR SIZED LOSS IN OI SILVER COMEX WAS PRIMARILY DUE TO; 1) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING//ALGO SHORT COVERING//REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING , 2) A FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (SEE BELOW), 3) A STRONG INCREASE IN  STANDING FOR SILVER  AT THE COMEX FOR MARCH., AND 4) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION,

EFP ISSUANCE 700 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 MARCH:  0 ; MAY: 700 AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 700 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI LOSS OF 898 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 700 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A TINY SIZED LOSS OF 198 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 0.990 MILLION  OZ, OCCURRED WITH OUR $0.23 LOSS IN PRICE///

 

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL..THE EVIDENCE IS CLEAR: HUGE AMOUNTS OF PHYSICAL STANDING FOR BOTH  SILVER AND GOLD .

 

(report Harvey)

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)MONDAY MORNING/ SUNDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 33.13 PTS OR .96%   //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 94. 04 PTS OR .33    /The Nikkei closed UP 49.14 POINTS OR 0.17%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.06%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed  UP AT 6.5033 /Oil UP TO 65.56 dollars per barrel for WTI and 69.12 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.5033. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.5076 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS //TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED//CORONAVIRUS/PANDEMIC/TRUMP TESTS POSITIVE FOR COVID 19  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 
 

COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL  BY SMALL SIZED 1738 CONTRACTS TO 465,966 MOVING FURTHER FROM THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020).  AND THIS COMEX DECREASE OCCURRED WITH OUR LOSS OF $3.25 IN GOLD PRICING FRIDAY’S COMEX FAILED RAID/)... WE ALSO HAD A HUMONGOUS EFP ISSUANCE (12,513 CONTRACTS) AS IT WAS SAFER TO CASH THESE GUYS OUT EVEN THOUGH IT WAS MORE EXPENSIVE. THE BANKERS WERE MIGHTILY SCARED OF LONGS STANDING FOR DELIVERY.  ON FRIDAY’S SESSION WE NO DOUBT HAD AGAIN  1)  HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING//ALGO SHORT COVERING,  2) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AND 3)ANOTHER  HUGE//ATMOSPHERIC  ADVANCE IN STANDING AT THE GOLD  COMEX//MAR. DELIVERY MONTH(25.7503. TONNES) (SEE BELOW) …  AS WE ENGINEERED A STRONG SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 10,775 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE LATELY WITNESSED THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL….. AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS.

(SEE BELOW)

WE  HAD 0    4 -GC VOLUME//open interest REMAINS AT   0

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAR..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A HUMONGOUS SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 12,513 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  ; FEB// ’21  0 AND APRIL:  12,513, JUNE:  0 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 12,513  CONTRACTS.

YOU WILL FIND THAT WHEN WE HAVE A GOOD PREMIUM IN THE FUTURES/SPOT, THEN THE NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS DECLINE IN NUMBERS.  THE COST IS JUST TOO MUCH FOR THEM TO ISSUE. TODAY THAT PREMIUM WAS SMALL AND THUS A LITTLE MORE THAN USUAL OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WERE ISSUED.

HOWEVER, WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION, THE OPPOSITE IS TRUE. EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. LONDON IS OUT OF METAL.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A HUGE SIZED 10,755 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 12513 LONGWERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE LOST A SMALL SIZED  COMEX OI  OF 1738 CONTRACTS.WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR MARCH  (25.7503 TONNES) WHICH FOLLOWED FEB (113.424 TONNES)  WHICH FOLLOWED OUR STRONG LEVEL OF JAN 2021 GOLD . ((6.500 TONNES).  

THE BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT FELL $3.25)., AND WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING ANY LONGS  AS THE TOTAL GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES REGISTERED A HUGE 33.52 TONNES,(ALTHOUGH I SUSPECT THAT ALL OF THE LOSS AT COMEX WAS DUE TO HGE BANKER SHORT COVERING)  ACCOMPANYING OUR STRONG GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR MAR (25.7503 TONNES)..I  STRONGLY BELIEVE THAT 0UR BANKER FRIENDS ARE GETTING QUITE NERVOUS.  THE SMALL GAIN IN COMEX OI IS DUE TO BANKER SHORT COVERING IN A BIG WAY.  THEY ARE LOOKING OVER THEIR SHOULDERS AND WITNESSING MASSIVE SILVER SHORTAGES THAT CANNOT BE COVERED. THEY ARE TRYING TO FLEE IN HASTE “FROM DODGE”. 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES :: 10,755 CONTRACTS OR 1,075,500 OZ OR  33.52  TONNES

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT COMMODITY FUTURES OPEN INTEREST SHOULD APPROXIMATE 3% OF TOTAL PRODUCTION.  IN GOLD THE WORLD PRODUCES AROUND 3500 TONNES PER YEAR BUT ONLY 2200 TONNES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE WEST (THUS EXCLUDING RUSSIA, CHINA ETC..WHO KEEP 100% OF THEIR PRODUCT.
 
THUS IN GOLD WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:  465,966 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS X 100 OZ PER CONTRACT = 46.59 MILLION OZ/32,150 OZ PER TONNE =  1449 TONNES

 

THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST REPRESENTS 1449/2200 OR 65.87% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF GOLD.

 
 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 170,628 contracts// volume  poor//

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  279,465 contracts//  volume:  FAIR–/ //most of our traders have left for London

 

MARCH 15 /2021

 
INITIAL STANDINGS FOR MAR COMEX GOLD
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
 
 
110,711.400 oz
 
 
HSBC
LOOMIS
(2,381 KILOBARS)
MANFRA
(1000 KILOBARS)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil
OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz
 
NIL
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
No of oz served (contracts) today
2  notice(s)
200 OZ
(0.00622 TONNES
 
No of oz to be served (notices)
67 contracts
(6700oz)
 
0.2083 TONNES
 
 
 
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
8212 notices
821,200 OZ
25.542 TONNES
 
 
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz
 

We had 0 deposit into the dealer

 
 
 
 
 
 
total deposit:  nil   oz
 
 
 

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had 0 deposits into the customer account

3 withdrawals from  the customer account (2/3 were kilobar transactions AND 99% BY WEIGHT KILOBARS)

 
 
 
i) Out of HSBC  2011.25 oz
ii) Out of Malca: 32,151.000 oz  (1,000 kilobars)
iii) Out of Loomis: 76,549.150 oz (2381 kilobars)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
total withdrawals:  110,711.400  (3.44 tonnes)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

We had 5  kilobar transactions

ADJUSTMENTS  3:  dealer to customer

Manfra:   18,711.800 oz (582 kilobars

HSBC: 9645.300 oz (300 kilobars)

Malca:  17,072.181 oz (531 kilobars 

 

 

The front month of MAR registered a total of 69 CONTRACTS FOR A LOSS  OF 240 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 278 NOTICES FILED ON  FRIDAY SO WE GAINED ANOTHER 38 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL  3800 OZ OR 0.1181 TONNES WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND IN THIS VERY ACTIVE MARCH DELIVERY MONTH.  THIS IS A RECORD FOR A QUEUE JUMP AS OUR BANKERS ARE SHORT OF GOLD AND WILL DO ANYTHING TO JUMP AHEAD OF UNSUSPECTING LONGS TO OBTAIN METAL. MARCH IS GENERALLY A NON ACTIVE MONTH BUT THIS IS SURELY NOT THIS CASE THIS MONTH. SOMEBODY NEEDS AN URGENT SUPPLY OF PHYSICAL GOLD!!!!!!!

 
 

APRIL, THE NEXT FRONT MONTH, LOST 10,915 contracts to stand at 216,266  

APRIL SAW A RATHER LARGE LIQUIDATION EARLY IN THE MONTH BUT IT HAS NO REVERTED TO ITS NORMAL ROLL

NUMBERS.(LAST YEAR: SAME TIME 261,000 OI REMAINED VS 216,000 TODAY.)

MAY GAINED ANOTHER 74 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 331

JUNE GAINED  8807 CONTRACTS UP TO 191,870

We had 2 notice(s) filed today for 200 oz

FOR THE MAR 2021 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and  0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 2  contract(s) of which 0  notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 1 notices received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the MAR /2021. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (8212) x 7503 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  (MAR // 69 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today 2 x 100 oz per contract) equals 824,700 OZ OR 25.7503 TONNESthe number of ounces standing in this  active month of MAR

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the MARCH contract month:

No of notices filed so far 8212 x 100 oz  + ( 69 OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (2} x 100 oz which equals 824,700 oz standing OR 25.7503 TONNES in this  NON active delivery month of MARCH. This is a HUGE amount standing for GOLD IN MARCH, A GENERALLY POOR NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH.

WE GAINED A STRONG 39 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL,3900 OZ WILL STAND ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND.

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:  scotia gone//PAID ITS PLEDGED GOLD OFF

464,420.335, oz NOW PLEDGED  march 5/2021/HSBC  13.626 TONNES

339,772.427 PLEDGED  MANFRA 10.5687 TONNES

312,798.505 oz  JPM  9.72 TONNES

1,083,680.877 oz pledged June 12/2020 Brinks/33.706 TONNES

94,500.934 oz Pledged August 21/regular account 2.93 tonnes JPMORGAN

6,308.08 oz International Delaware:  .196 tonnes

192.906 oz Malca

total pledged gold:  2,301,674.057 oz                                     71.59 tonnes

 

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES…. WE HAVE 493.09 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS i.e. 25.7503 tonnes

CALCULATION OF REGISTERED THAT CAN BE SETTLED UPON:

total registered or dealer  18,154,741.389 oz or 564.68 tonnes
 
 
total weight of pledged:  2,301,674.057 oz or 71.59 tonnes
 
 
thus:
 
registered gold that can be used to settle upon: 15,835,067.0  (493,09 tonnes) a  drop of 1.5 tonnes from Friday
 
 
 
true registered gold  (total registered – pledged tonnes  15,835,067/.0 (493.09 tonnes)
 
 
 
total eligible gold: 20,165,636.268 , oz (627.23 tonnes)
 
 

total registered, pledged  and eligible (customer) gold 38,320,377.657 oz or 1,191.92 tonnes (INCLUDES 4 GC GOLD)

total 4 GC gold:   126.34 tonnes

total gold net of 4 GC:  1065.58 tonnes

end

I have compiled  data with respect to registered (or dealer) gold taken on first day notice for each of the past 24 months

The data begins on first day notice for the May month taken on the last day of July 2018. and it continues to present day.

I then took, how many deliveries were recorded by the CME for each and every month.  I also included for reference the price of gold on first day notice.

The first graph is a logarithmic  graph and the second graph, linear.

You can see the huge explosion of registered gold at the comex along with deliveries.

 
 
THE DATA AND GRAPHS:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
END

 

 
 
MARCH 15/2021

And now for the wild silver comex results

 
 

And now for the wild silver comex results

INITIAL STANDING FOR SILVER/MAR

MAR. SILVER COMEX CONTRACT MONTH//INITIAL STANDING

Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 
1,552,876.120 oz
CNT
Delaware
Manfra
JPMorgan
HSBC
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
 
nil
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
No of oz served today (contracts)
3
 
CONTRACT(S)
(15,000 OZ)
 
No of oz to be served (notices)
1113 contracts
 5,565,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  9769 contracts 48,845,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
 
We had 0 deposit into the dealer:
 
 
 

total dealer deposits:  nil        oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had 0 deposits into the customer account (ELIGIBLE ACCOUNT)

 
 
 
 

JPMorgan now has 192.184 million oz of  total silver inventory or 51.12% of all official comex silver. (192.184 million/375.938 million

total customer deposits today:  nil   oz

we had 5 withdrawals:

 
 
i) out of CNT 619,579.690 oz
 
 
ii) Out of  Delaware:20,945.902 oz
iii) Out of Manfra:  55,790.090 oz
iv) JPMorgan:  258,008.138 OZ
v)  HSBC:  598,552.300 oz
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

total withdrawals 1,552,876.120   oz

5th day in a row more than 1 million oz of silver leaves the comex//today 1.55 million

We had 1 adjustment:

80,583.50 oz leaves eligible account of Manfra

 

Total dealer(registered) silver: 127.797million oz

total registered and eligible silver:  375.938 million oz

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

MARCH saw a LOSS of 32contracts to stand at 1116. We had 106 contracts served on FRIDAY, so we  GAINED A STRONG 74 contracts or an additional 370,000 oz will stand for delivery in this  active delivery month of March. These guys refused to morph into London based forwards as there is no silver metal on their side of the pond so they will try their luck over here. 

April GAINED  93 contracts to stand at 2468

May LOST 1193 contracts to stand at  124,254 contracts.

The total number of notices filed today for MARCH 2021. contract month is represented by 3 contract(s) FOR 15,000 oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in FEB we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at  9769 x 5,000 oz = 48,845,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAR (1116) and the number of notices served upon today 3 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the MAR standings for silver for the MAR/2021 contract month: 9769 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of MARCH(1116- number of notices served upon today (3) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the Jan contract month .equals 54,410,000 oz. ..VERY STRONG FOR AN ACTIVE MAR MONTH.

We GAINED 74 contracts or an additional 370,000 oz will stand for delivery as the refused to  morph into London based forwards.

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME 47,406 CONTRACTS // volume// volumes falling off a cliff//

FOR YESTERDAY  61,723  ,CONFIRMED VOLUME//fair

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott Physical silver and gold trusts

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO +0.18% ((MAR 15/2021)

2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO –2.07% to NAV:   (MAR 15/2021 )

Note: /Sprott physical gold trust is back into POSITIVE/0.18%(MAR 15/2021)

(courtesy Sprott/GATA

3. SPROTT CEF .A   FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 18.77 TRADING 18.03//NEGATIVE 3.94

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/(this vehicle is a fraud as there is no gold behind them!)

MARCH 15/WITH GOLD UP $8.85 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.25 TONNES OF GOLD FORM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.07 TONNES

MARCH 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.25 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A REMOVAL OF 4.96 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1055.27 TONNES

MARCH 11/WITH GOLD UP $1.25 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.75 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1060.23 TONNES

MARCH 10/WITH GOLD UP $4.70 TODAY: ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.46 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1061.98 TONNES

MARCH 9/WITH GOLD UP $37.40 TODAY: ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 5.82 TONNES FORM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1063.44 TONNES

MARCH 8/WITH GOLD  DOWN $21.00  TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 9.04 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1069.26 TONNES

MARCH 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $15.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.08 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1078.30 TONNES

MARCH 4/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.60 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1082.38 TONNES

MARCH 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $17.70 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.62 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1087.12 TONNES

MARCH 2/WITH GOLD UP $9.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WHOPPING WITHDRAWAL OF 9.04 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1084.50 TONNES

MARCH 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.65 DOLLARS; A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.7 TONNES FROM THE GLD//.INVENTORY RESTS AT 1093.54 TONNES.

FEB 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $46.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.08 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1100.24 TONNES//

FEB 25/ WITH GOLD DOWN $20.65 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.08 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY REST AT 1106.36 TONNES

FEB 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.30 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.96 TONNES FROM THE GLD// RESTS AT 1110.44 TONNES

FEB 23/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.45 TODAY: A MONSTROUS CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 12.54 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1115.40 TONNES

FEB 22/WITH GOLD UP $30.00 TODAY: STRANGE!! A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.25 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1127.64 TONNES

FEB 19/WITH GOLD UP $2.00 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1132.89 TONNES

FEB 18//WITH GOLD UP $2.60 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.79 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1132.89 TONNES

FEB 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $27.35 TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.54 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1136.68 TONNES

FEB 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $23.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORYRESTS AT 1142.20 TONNES

FEB 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.38 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1142.20 TONNES

FEB 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $15.35 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/I: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1146.60 TONNES

FEB 10/WITH GOLD UP $5.30 TODAY: ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.09 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1148.34 TONNES

FEB 9/WITH GOLD UP $4.00 TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.08 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1152.43 TONNES.

FEB 8/WITH GOLD UP $20.80 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.33 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1156.51 TONNES

FEB 5/WITH GOLD UP $20.10 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1159.84 TONNES

FEB 4/WITH GOLD DOWN $42.05 TODAY: STRANGE: HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.34 TONNES ADDED INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1159.84 TONNES

FEB 3/WITH GOLD DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1157.50 TONNES

FEB 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $27.60 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD// A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.63 TONNES FROM THE GLD//.INVENTORY RESTS AT 1157.50 TONNES

FEB 1/WITH GOLD UP $12.45 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.5 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1160.13 TONNES

JAN 29/WITH GOLD UP $9.65 TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A WITHDRAWAL  OF 4.37 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1164.80 TONNES

JAN 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.90 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.71 TONNES LEAVES THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1169.17 TONNES

JANUARY 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.85 TODAY; A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF .87 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS 1172.38 TONNES

JAN 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.15 TODAY:NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1173.25 TONNES

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Inventory rests tonight at:

 

MARCH 15 / GLD INVENTORY 1052.07 tonnes

LAST;  1018 TRADING DAYS:   +118.26 TONNES HAVE BEEN ADDED THE GLD

LAST 948 TRADING DAYS// +  304.50TONNES  HAVE NOW  BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY

end

Now the SLV Inventory/(this vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them!)

MARCH 15/WITH SILVER UP 35 CENTS TODAY: NO  CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 592.438 MILLION OZ///

MARCH 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 592.438 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 11/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 592.438 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY; ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 928,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 592.438 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 9/WITH SILVER UP 91 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 593.366  MILLION OZ///

MARCH 8/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.25 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 593.366 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 31 CENTS TODAY: TWO HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.501 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV AT 3 PM AND ANOTHER 3.90 MILION OZ AT 5.20..: TOTAL LOSSS 10.4 MILLLLION OZ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 596.616 MILLION OZ

MARCH 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 76 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.486 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 609.017 MILLION OZ

MARCH 3/WITH SILVER DOWN 58 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.774 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 605.531 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 2//WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 609.305 MILLION OZ

MARCH 1.WITH SILVER UP 26 CENTS TODAY:A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.593 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 609.305 MILLION OZ.

FEB 26/WITH SILVER DOWN  $1.17 TODAY: TWO HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.857 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV AT 3 PM//AND ANOTHER 1.858 MILLION OZ AT 5.20 EST//INVENTORY RESTS AT 615.898 MILLION OZ//

FEB 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 619.613 MILLION OZ//

FEB 24/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORIES AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 619.613 MILLION OZ

FEB 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS TODAY: TWO ENTRIES I) HUGE CHANGE ISN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 127,000 OZ INTO THE SLV AND THEN A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 7.801 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 619.613 MILLION OZ

FEB 22/WITH SILVER UP 74 CENTS TODAY: 2 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.322 MILLION OZ AT 3 PM AND 6.873 MILLION OF AT 5 20 PM EST/INVENTORY RESTS AT 611.685 MILLION OZ/

FEB 19//WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 621.007 MILLION OZ//

FEB 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 22 CENTS TODAY : TWO HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.858 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV AN ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL 5.758 MILLION OZ// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 621.007 MILLION OZ//

FEB 17/WITH SILVER UP  1 CENT TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A DEPOSIT OF 83,000 OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 628.623 MILLION OZ//

FEB 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.044 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 628.530 MILLION OZ//

FEB 12/WITH SILVER UP 31 CENTS//A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.312 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 630.574 MILLION OZ.

FEB 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.858 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 634.986 MILLION OZ//

FEB 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 44 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 636.844 MILLION OZ//

FEB 9/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.19 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 17.882 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 636.844 MILLION OZ//

FEB 8/WITH SILVER UP $0.53 TODAY: A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 4.451 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 654.726 MILLION OZ//

FEB 5/WITH SILVER UP 70 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 659.278 MILLION OZ

FEB 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 0.54 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 10.079 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 659.278 MILLION OZ//

FEB 3/WITH SILVER UP 38 CENTS TODAY: A MIND NUMBING: 56.784 MILION OZ “DEPOSIT” INTO THE SLV at 3 pm AND A WITHDRAWAL OF 7.99 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV AT 5 PM//WITH THESE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 669.357 MILLION OZ//

FEB2//WITH SILVER DOWN  $2.81 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: AN UNBELEIVABLE DEPOSIT OF 18.627 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 620.563 MILLION OZ//

FEB 1/WITH SILVER UP $2.56 TODAY: A FAIRY TALE DEPOSIT OF 34.419 MILLION OZ INTO  SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 601.936 MILLION OZ//

JAN 29/WITH SILVER UP 58 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.366 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 567.517 MILLION OZ//

JAN 28/WITH SILVER UP 44 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.393 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 571.883 MILLION OZ/

JAN 27/ WITH SILVER DOWN 10CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.: A XXXWITHDRAWAL OF 3.022 MILLION OZ OF IMAGINARY SILVER// INVENTORY RESTS AT 573.277 MILLION OZ/

JAN 26/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 576.299 MILLION OZ///

JAN 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 2.044 MILLION XXXXOZ INTO THE SLV// INVENTORY RESTS AT 576.299 MILLION OZ./.

XXXXXXXXXXXXXX

SLV INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT

 


 


MARCH 15/2021
592.438 MILLION OZ

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) Peter Schiff……

Schiff: The Fed Will Wave The White Flag At Inflation

 
MONDAY, MAR 15, 2021 – 15:04

Via SchiffGold.com,

Peter Schiff recently appeared on RT Boom Bust to talk about inflation, the Fed and gold. He said a lot of people still think the Fed will soon tighten monetary policy to deal with rising inflation pressure. But they’re wrong. Ultimately, the Fed is going to surrender to inflation without a fight. When the markets realize this, the dollar is going to crash through the floor and gold is going through the roof.

Gold had a little bit of a rebound late last week before giving back some of those gains on Friday. Is this a sign that gold has bottomed? Peter said he wasn’t sure.

I don’t know if we’ve seen the lows in gold but I know for sure we haven’t seen the highs. So, when this correction is over, the price of gold is going much, much higher.”

Peter has said that the Federal Reserve is between a rock and a hard place. It couldn’t fight inflation even if it wanted to. Doing so would collapse the stock market and the broader economy.  So, how long will Jerome Powell keep promising to hold interest rates down? Peter said rates will have to stay low “indefinitely” because the entire economy is a bubble.

It’s not a legitimate recovery that we’re enjoying. It’s simply the spending of borrowed money — and more literally printed money. We’re running massive deficits. The federal government is spending over $8 trillion per year but collecting less than $3.5 trillion in taxes. The difference is pretty much being supplied by the Fed and Americans are spending all of this money. That’s why our trade deficits are skyrocketing right now.”

In a nutshell, the Fed is printing money, the government is handing it out and American consumers are spending it on stuff they did not produce.

The goods trade deficit grew to $83.7 billion in January, up from $83.2 billion in December, according to the most recent Commerce Department data. Imports of consumer goods climbed to a record $62.8 billion. Import shipments of food and beverages also reached a new high of $13.8 billion.

Peter said the only things keeping this house of cards from imploding are zero percent interest rates and Federal Reserve quantitative easing.

So, the Fed is not going to pull the rug out from under this bubble. But it has to pretend that if it ever sees an inflation problem that it’s got the tools to fight it even though it’s bluffing. Because even if it had the tools it would never use them because the tools would destroy the house of cards that they’ve erected.”

Peter was asked if he thinks gold and precious metals will catch up to inflation expectations if inflation fears keep growing. He said “absolutely!”

Right now, the markets sense that inflation is going to be moving higher. And maybe even higher than what the Fed is acknowledging. But I think the markets still believe the Fed — that the Fed will be able to contain the inflation problem before it really runs out of control. So, it’s the expectation that the Fed’s going to fight inflation by raising rates — that’s what’s pressuring gold. But the markets are wrong.

The Fed is not even going to attempt to fight inflation. It’s going to surrender. Inflation is going to win without a fight. And when the markets realize that the Fed is all bark and no bite, and that inflation is going to be an even bigger problem that is going to be uncontrollable, then the bottom’s going to fall out of the dollar and gold’s going through the roof.

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

Jim Rickards on the real price of gold

(Jim RickardsGATA)

Jim Rickards: The real price of gold is not what you see on your screen

 

 

 Section: Daily Dispatches

 

By James G. Rickards
The Daily Reckoning, Baltimore
Tuesday, March 2, 2021

What’s the price of gold?

That seems like a ridiculously easy question to answer. I’m looking at a trading screen right now, and it displays a price of $1,733.80 per ounce.

That price may change a bit by the time you read this, but it would only take a fresh glance at the screen to get the new price. Case closed.

… 

What’s the price of silver? Again, the question seems easy to answer. My trading screen right now says $26.82 per ounce. That price also changes, but it only takes another look at the screen to fetch the new price. Nothing to it.

If only things were that simple. They’re not.

In fact, establishing prices for gold and silver is far more difficult than it sounds. Further, the different prices on offer and the reasons for those differences can tell us a lot about what’s going on right now in precious metals markets. …

… For the remainder of the analysis:

https://dailyreckoning.com/whats-the-real-price-of-gold/

END

Alasdair Macleod interviewed at Kingworldnews. He comments that banks are continuing on their quest of massive short covering in gold.

(Alasdair Macleod/KingworldNews/gata)

Bullion banks continue massive short covering in gold, Macleod tells KWN

 

 

 Section: Daily Dispatches

 

11:10p ET Friday, March 12, 2021

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

At King World News, GoldMoney founder Alasdair Macleod remarks about the continuing massive reduction of the short gold futures positions of the bullion banks and argues that rising interest rates don’t threaten gold because they are still not high enough to defend government currencies.

Macleod’s analysis is headlined “Bullion Banks Continue Massive Short Covering in the Gold Market” and it’s posted at KWN here:

https://kingworldnews.com/bullion-banks-continue-massive-short-covering-…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

I brought this tape to your attention on Friday but it is worth repeating: Andrew Maguire explains how the new Basel iii will shrink the world of paper gold

a must view

(Maguire/Kinesis/gata)

Maguire explains how Basel III will shrink market for ‘paper’ gold

 

 

 Section: Daily Dispatches

 

12:45p ET Sunday, March 14, 2021

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

In his weekly interview with Shane Moran for Kinesis Money, London metals trader Andrew Maguire explains how implementation of the “Basel III” banking standards, in pursuit of reducing counterparty risks for banks, will shrink the market for unallocated, “paper” gold and thereby push up gold’s price.

Maguire says central banks with gold reserves will want a higher price for the monetary metal to offset their enormous debt burdens. This observation echoes the 2012 hypothesis of the U.S. economists Paul Brodsky and Lee Quaintance:

https://www.gata.org/node/11373

As gold is revalued upward, Maguire says, it will become highly strategic for China to announce that it has a much larger gold reserve than it has reported to the International Monetary Fund.

Joining Maguire in the interview’s second section is fund manager David Tice, who believes that gold can rise with stocks and that silver is spectacularly undervalued.

The interview is an hour long and can be viewed at YouTube here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KZfBYNW2gsI&list=TLPQMTIwMzIwMjEG23UQnSs…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

This is very important:  gold is in backwardation and that signifies strong physical demand

(Turk/Kingworldnews)

Gold is in backwardation, signifying strong demand, Turk tells KWN

 

 

 Section: Daily Dispatches

 

1:14p ET Sunday, March 14, 2021

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

GoldMoney founder and GATA consultant James Turk tells King World News that gold is again in backwardation, signifying strong physical demand, and that last week’s attempts to push silver down more failed.

With the U.S. government’s $1.9 trillion epidemic recovery program likely to be followed by an even larger infrastructure construction program, Turk says, the dollar is sure to decline.

Turk’s comments can be heard at KWN here:

https://kingworldnews.com/gold-in-backwardation-as-very-strong-physical-…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

Andy Schectman comments on that Comex is being drained incospicuously. 

(Schectman/Miles Franklin)

Comex is being drained inconspicuously, Miles Franklin CEO Schectman says

 

 

 Section: Daily Dispatches

 

1:20p ET Sunday, March 14, 2021

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Andy Schectman, CEO of coin and bullion dealer Miles Franklin, tells Liberty and Finance’s Dunagun Kaiser that big buyers are trying to drain the New York Commodities Exchange of gold and silver as inconspicuously as possible. 

The interview is 26 minutes long and can be viewed at YouTube here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x2tEjhr6mdc

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

Silver Bullion TV’s Patrick Vierra interview Stuart Englert, the author of the “Rigged”

Viera/Englert

Silver Bullion TV’s Patrick Vierra interviews ‘Rigged’ author Stuart Englert

 

 

 Section: Daily Dispatches

 

1:34p ET Sunday, March 14, 2021

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Silver Bullion TV’s Patrick Vierra this week interviewed Stuart Englert, author of the primer on gold price manipulation, “Rigged.” The interview is a half hour long and can be viewed at YouTube here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kKqHWd8DoOk

To purchase a copy of “Rigged” while supporting GATA, please see below.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

iii) Other physical stories:

Bitcoin hits $60,000 crushing shorts.

(zerohedge)

Bitcoin Hits $60,000 For The First Time Ever, Crushing $250MM Worth Of Shorts

 
SATURDAY, MAR 13, 2021 – 9:43

Back in mid-February, when Bitcoin (along with most high beta assets) tumbled by more than 25%, and fresh calls for the crypto’s imminent death re-emerged, we told readers to keep calm and BTFD (because after all bitcoin is nothing more than the inverse bet on continued central bank idiocy and that particular bubble will never burst), and referred readers to the Bitcoin Obituaries page which has documented no less than 403 instances when bitcoin was pronounced dead by the mainstream press.

Fast forward one month to today when not only has bitcoin survived its latest “near death” experience, but overnight it hit $60,000 for the first time amid renewed optimism that the digital token will achieve even wider adoption, the same thesis we laid out at the start of the year (long before Elon Musk announced that Tesla was buying $1.5BN of the crypto) when bitcoin was trading at $30,000 and we said it would go to $100,000 next. Bitcoin has doubled since – is now up more than 1,000% over the past year – and is well on its way to our target.

The cryptocurrency traded at 60,012 just after 7am ET, surging during the Asian session, and rebounding in almost record time from the February rout.

As our friends over at skewTrading show, the moment bitcoin crossed above the major resistance level at $60,000, a burst of trading erupted as a stop-loss cascade was triggered…

… liquidating $250 million worth of shorts in just a few short hours.

“Bitcoin’s resilience is proving to be the stuff of legend,” said Antoni Trenchev, managing partner and co-founder of Nexo in London, a crypto lender. “Every correction is an opportunity to reset and restart the move upwards.”

One reason cited for the breakout is that much of the $1.9 trillion in newly printed “stimmy checks” will quickly be allocated to cryptos.

“The announcement from the White House is very significant for risk assets in general, and crypto-assets specifically,” said Simon Peters, an analyst at eToro, adding that the “floodgates” are now open in terms of new liquidity.

As we first explained in late 2020, the reason why the current rally is so very different from the 2017 rally, is that unlike back then when the move was driven by retail trading, mostly in Asia, this time it is far more institutional-focused, and recent notable purchases include Tesla’s $1.5 billion investment in Bitcoin and Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk’s endorsements of the digital asset on social media. Repeating almost verbatim what we first said on January 9, one month later billionaire investor Mike Novogratz, who runs Galaxy Digital Holdings, said that Bitcoin could reach $100,000 by the end of the year.

And speaking of $100,000, the options-market assigns an 8% probability that bitcoin will trade there by the end of April and a whopping 20% by the end of the year.

Meanwhile, as much as bitcoin is hated by some fiat money supporters, none other than Goldman was recently forced to include it in its weekly recap of best and worst performing assets. Needless to say, it continues to simply blow away all of the competition.

end
LUMBER PRICES
Lumber prices now are $1000 per thousand board feet.  A small home adds $24,000 in contruction costs!
(zerohedge)

Building A New Home? Soaring Lumber Prices Adds $24,000 To New Construction Build

 
FRIDAY, MAR 12, 2021 – 19:20

Lumber prices have hit $1,000 per thousand board feet, an all-time high in recent weeks, and could extend gains this year as homebuilding and renovation demand outstrips production. Soaring lumber prices have greatly added to construction costs over the last year and could stifle the number of planned residential construction projects across the US.

“Production is going to have a hard time keeping up with demand growth as the world economy bounces back from Covid-19 in 2021-22,” Paul Jannke, Forest Economic Advisors LLC.’s principal of lumber, said during a conference this week who Bloomberg quoted. He believes average lumber prices will remain elevated.

Lumber Prices

Now the question readers have is how much are these rising costs adding to the construction build? Well, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) said rising lumber prices had added $24.4k of costs to the build in the past ten months.

Weeks ago, the Associated General Contractors of America (AGC) penned a letter to the White House requesting the Biden administration to intervene.

AGC believes the White House can play a constructive role in mitigating this growing threat to multifamily housing and other construction sectors by urging domestic lumber producers to ramp up production to ease growing shortages and making it a priority to work with Canada on a new softwood lumber agreement,” the AGC wrote in a letter.

NAHB has also been vocal and requested the federal government to intervene and lower lumber prices. They asked the Biden administration to end tariffs on Canadian lumber shipments to alleviate supply shortages. 

“Lumber price spikes are not only sidelining buyers during a period of high demand, they are causing many sales to fall through and forcing builders to put projects on hold at a time when home inventories are already at a record low,” NAHB said in a statement.

Additionally, as we noted during last year’s chaotic surge, it’s not all demand-driven as one builder noted, “the explanation they had for us was that COVID-19 shut down the plants that treat the wood, and that finally caught up.”

“The supply chain was screwed up,” said Wilson, Wilson Construction’s owner in Galveston. “Dimension sizes were in limited supplies; even something as simple as a two-by-four-by-twelve Southern yellow pine treated was in extremely short supply.”

But don’t worry future homeowners and or contractors, Powell says The Fed has “the tools” to manage inflation… well, he is right about one thing! (they do have some tools) but don’t own any sawmills nor have the ability to print wood out of thin air.

Inflation is real…

end
Wall Street Bets now targeting crypto miners
(zero hedge)

WallStreetBets Is Now Targeting Crypto Miners

 
SUNDAY, MAR 14, 2021 – 11:59

The WallStreetBets Reddit forum that skyrocketed in popularity this year amidst the GameStop chaos is now targeting crypto miners.

Though the board has a “no cryptocurrency” rule, that doesn’t prevent users from talking about stocks that are tied to cryptocurrency. And that’s exactly what they’re doing, according to Bloomberg. Names like Riot Blockchain (RIOT) and Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA) have become mainstays of conversation on the board. 

Perhaps lost amidst the bitcoin bluster is the fact that mining names have returned massive sums, in excess that of bitcoin. Marathon and Riot both surpassed 7,600% gains for the year as of March 12. 

Users of the forum have been taking exception with the “no cryptocurrency” rule: “Oh, we can talk about RIOT now? Nice, I guess I can show this 16-bagger,” one post said. And while the forum isn’t responsible for the names taking off – they have followed bitcoin’s surge – it may begin contributing to still-growing interest in the names. 

Cryptos, at the same time, look as though they will continue going mainstream. Coinbase’s upcoming NASDAQ listing will value it at about $90 billion. 

But at some point, laws of large numbers will kick in. Howard Wang, co-founder of New York-based investment advisory and market research firm Convoy Investments, told Bloomberg: “Investors should consider whether the business model is sustainable in an environment where Bitcoin prices aren’t quadrupling year over year. Bitcoin and miners are fundamentally different investments.”

And obviously, layering a management team and a company on top of bitcoin, adds additional risk to the already ever-present risk of investing in bitcoin. Vijay Ayyar, head of Asia Pacific with crypto exchange Luno in Singapore said: “It’s quite hard to do better than just holding Bitcoin itself, frankly. Owning an asset versus the business that produces that asset are quite different both from a cost and opportunity perspective.”

end

Bitcoin tumbles this morning on mixed messages from India and Institutional investors.

(zerohedge)

Bitcoin Tumbles Amid Mixed Crypto Messages From India, Institutional Profit-Taking

 
MONDAY, MAR 15, 2021 – 9:10

Bitcoin and its peers surged to new record highs over the weekend on what Mike Novogratz believes was a wave of retail excitement after the stimmies (which fits with Mizuho’s estimates that around 10% of U.S. stimulus checks may be used to buy Bitcoin and stocks, equating to around $40b in total)…

But, broad crypto markets took a hit this morning and initial headlines pinned the blame on India crypto regulations (which as we will see below were mixed at worst), but as CoinDesk notes, the catalysts would well be weaker buying pressure from institutional investors.

The failure to establish a foothold above $60,000 and the decline is likely the result of the flat-to-negative Coinbase premium – a major bellwether for institutional demand,” according to Ki Young Ju, CEO of blockchain analytics firm CryptoQuant.

Specifically, CryptoQuant’s Coinbase premium indicator measures the spread between Coinbase’s BTC/USD pair and Binance’s BTC/USDT pair. A positive spread implies increased demand from high-net-worth investors and institutions, as these entities prefer to trade via regulated exchanges with over-the-counter desks such as Coinbase.

The premium was negative over the weekend when bitcoin broke above $60,000 and remains marginally positive at press time, implying weak institutional demand. 

Having tagged almost $62 over the weekend, BTC has tumbled overnight since futures opened, erasing the weekend’s gains…

Source: Bloomberg

“I think [we’ll see bitcoin] short-term bearish or going sideways until there’s significant institutional spot inflows in Coinbase,” Ki said.

“Whale addresses holding 1,000 or more bitcoin have been selling, this does not mean the bull run is over, it just means that profit taking is happening,” according to market analyst Lark Davis.

Ethereum also fell back from new highs overnight…

Source: Bloomberg

As the entire space got hit amid confusing messages from Indian officialsAs one government official says the planned legislation would completely ban cryptocurrency use, another stresses that is not the case.

As reported by Reuters on Monday, trading, mining, issuance and possession of cryptocurrencies are expected to be criminalized in India with an upcoming legislative bill.

CoinDesk reports that the official, who was not named, said the legislation is likely to make it through Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s majority-controlled parliament.

However, on the same day as the Reuters report, the Deccan Herald cited Minister of Finance and Corporate Affairs Nirmala Sitharaman as saying the government is not planning to completely bar cryptocurrency use.

“From our side, we are very clear that we are not shutting all options. We will allow certain windows for people to do experiments on the blockchain, bitcoins or cryptocurrency,” Sitharaman said. She added the growth of the fintech industry depends on such experiments, per the report.

And Indian officials have been discussing crypto crackdowns for weeks.

We give Mike Novogratz the final word explaining that, amid India’s potential crackdown, bitcoin is ‘hard to kill’

“Bitcoin will literally be like a report card for how citizens think the government is doing managing their finances,” says Novogratz.

“We are in uncharted territories on how much money we are printing and btc is a report card on that.”

“Bitcoin isn’t so much a bubble as “the last functioning fire alarm” warning us of some very big geopolitical changes ahead.”

end

100 Million Stimmys To Be Delivered In Next 10 Days: How Much Will Go Into Bitcoin

BY TYLER DURDEN
MONDAY, MAR 15, 2021 – 15:40

Moments ago Biden made it clear that the next week will see an epic inflow of new capital, much of which will be used to chase various stocks, cryptos and other risk assets.

  • BIDEN: OVER NEXT 10 DAYS 100 MILLION CHECKS WILL BE DELIVERED

Which again brings us to what BofA said is the “Most Important Question” for investors: Where Will Biden’s Trillions In Stimmys End Up?

To address this question, yesterday we focused on equities, where a lengthy analysis from BofA found that since much of the stimulus will likely end up with higher income households, much of it won’t be spent but rather saved, including in the form of equity allocation. We also noted a recent Deutsche Bank poll of online brokerage account users which found that roughly 37% would invest stimmy checks in the stock market. What does this mean quantiatively:

“Given stimulus checks are currently penciled in at c.$405bn in Biden’s plan, that gives us a maximum of around $150bn that could go into US equities based on our survey. Obviously only a proportion of recipients have trading accounts, though. If we estimate this at around 20% (based on some historical assumptions), that would still provide around c.$30bn of firepower – and that’s before we talk about any possible boosts to 401k plans outside of trading accounts.”

DB’s conclusion: “stimulus checks could accelerate the large inflows into US equities seen in recent months after many years of weak flow data. Will this be enough to offset any impact of higher yields? Expect this push/pull to continue for some time.”

What about that “other” asset, the one which incidentally is the best performing one YTD according to none other than Goldman Sachs?

Well, according a brand new survey by Japanese bank Mizuho which polled 235 people with a household income under $150,000, and who expect to receive the latest round of stimmy cash, around 10% of U.S. stimulus checks may be used to buy Bitcoin and stocks, equating to around $40BN in total! Up to 40% of respondents said they would invest the direct payments into BTC and stocks, with 61% saying they would choose Bitcoin over equities.

According to analyst Dan Dolev, nearly two-in-five of the recipients surveyed expect to use some portion of the money to invest, and in a novel if unsurprising twist, check recipients said they prefer Bitcoin to stocks“Bitcoin is the preferred investment choice among check recipients. It comprises nearly 60% of the incremental spend, which may imply $25 billion of incremental spend on Bitcoin from stimulus checks,” said the Mizuho analyst. “This represents 2-3% of Bitcoin’s current $1.1 trillion market cap.”

Source: Cointelegraph

As CoinTelegraph notes, This is the third direct payment to financially assist those affected by income insecurity during the COVID-19 pandemic. Lawmakers provided many Americans with $1,200 direct payments in April 2020, as well as $600 checks in January. Crypto users who invested the full $1,200 into Bitcoin last year may have realized as much as $10,000 in gains following the asset’s rise to more than $60,000 in 2021.

Finally, for those who say that all these newly hatched bitcoin investors will have no access to their money, you are wrong: as Reuters reports, a new feature has appeared at smoke shops in Montana, gas stations in the Carolinas and delis in far-flung corners of New York City: a brightly-lit bitcoin ATM, where customers can buy or sell digital currency, and sometimes extract hard cash.

As the price of bitcoin has exploded in the past year, the bitcoin ATMs have multiplied quickly through the United States. Kiosk operators such as CoinFlip and Coin Cloud have installed thousands of ATMs, scouring areas competitors have not yet reached, executives told Reuters.

“I just assumed there was demand and people wanted bitcoin everywhere,” said Quad Coin founder Mark Shoiket, who flew to Montana after scanning a U.S. map for bitcoin ATM deserts. He is not wrong.  During a week-long road trip, he found seven places to install machines, including 406 Glass, a store in Billings, Montana, that sells tobacco, vape juice and colorful glass pipes.

As of January, there were 28,185 bitcoin ATMs in the United States, according to howmanybitcoinatms.com, an independent research site. Roughly 10,000 came within the prior five months. Some machines only offer bitcoin, while others let customers invest in various digital currencies. Few bitcoin ATMs can actually spit out cash, and they cost more than regular ATMs or transacting online.

“The growth of the ATM market – it is not even a gentle increase, it is almost a 45% increase,” said Clegg. “The growth is quite astonishing.” The only thing that is more astonishing: the increase in the price of bitcoin.

Your early MONDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED UP AT 6.5033 /

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.5076   /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 33.13 PTS OR .96%

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 94.04 PTS OR .33%

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 49.14 POINTS OR 0.67%

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL GREEN/

USA dollar index DOWN TO 91.85/Euro FALLS TO 1.1923

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: RISES TO. +.11/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 109.19/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 65.56 and Brent: 69.12

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE CLOSED UP/OFF- SHORE: UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO -.31%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 0.63% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.32%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 0.94: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 0.81

3k Gold at $1729.95 silver at: 26.05   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 15/100 in roubles/dollar) 73.10

3m oil into the 65 dollar handle for WTI and 69 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 109.19 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9293 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1082 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to 0.31%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 1.634% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 1.389%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 7.52..

S&P Futures, World Stocks Rise With Yields Clinging To 13 Month Highs Ahead Of FOMC

 
MONDAY, MAR 15, 2021 – 7:59

Global shares rose and US equity futures were flat as U.S. bond yields hovered near a 13-month to start the week as bets economic growth will accelerate kept high duration stocks depressed as investors braced for Federal Reserve and other key central bank meetings in the days ahead. The Dow notched five consecutive record highs last week as approval of one of the largest fiscal stimulus in U.S. history and vaccine rollouts fueled demand for economy-linked stocks such as banks, energy, materials at the cost of tech names with lofty valuations.

At 7:40 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis were up 118 points, or 0.36%, Nasdaq 100 E-minis were up 24.75 points, or 0.19% and S&P 500 E-minis were up 5 points, or 0.1%, fading an earlier gain of 3,948 amid caution how the Fed would respond to the stimulus-fueled snapback in economic activity.

American Airlines and Carnival rose in pre-market trading. U.S. Steel advanced after saying it expects earnings to improve on the back of strong market conditions. FAAMG names all rose between 0.1% and 0.6% in early trade. Microsoft stands to receive nearly a quarter of COVID relief funds destined for U.S. cybersecurity defenders, sources told Reuters, angering some lawmakers who don’t want to increase funding for a company whose software was recently at the heart of two big hacks. Eli Lilly and Co dropped 5% premarket as analysts said the company’s mid-stage trial data for its experimental drug to treat Alzheimer’s cast a doubt on the approval timeline.

The MSCI world equity index was slightly higher, rising by 0.1% by 0847 GMT. The $1.9 trillion stimulus bill President Joe Biden signed into law last week and the rollout of COVID-19 vaccinations stoked a bullish mood, but the focus was gradually turning to the outlook for monetary policy.

“The Federal Reserve is expected to rigidly stick to its easing plans, despite (Fed Chair Jerome) Powell & Co likely becoming significantly more upbeat on the outlook,” said AFS analyst Arne Petimezas in Amsterdam. “However, the risks are towards a hawkish surprise. The $1.9 trillion stimulus has been adopted without much ado and the Biden administration has now set its sight on a big figure infrastructure bill,” he added.

The U.S. House of Representatives gave final approval last week to the COVID-19 relief bill, giving Biden his first major victory in office: “This will provide another shot in the arm for a U.S. economy sprinting out of a deep hole (10 million jobs are still missing at present),” said Natixis economist Troy Ludtka in New York. “We see the macro backdrop – stimulus included – as being sufficient to jolt the U.S. economy beyond the 6% growth mark,” he added in a note.

European shares rose 0.7% in morning trading, with travel companies and automakers leading the Stoxx 600 Index to the highest level in a year. Danone, the world’s largest yogurt maker, jumped 5% after announcing it would replace its chairman.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks dropped as investors sold technology-related names and bought cyclicals. Mainland Chinese shares, however, dropped despite data showing a quickening in industrial output and a rise in retail sales, with bluechip CSI 300 index falling 2.2% on policy tightening worries. Surveillance equipment maker Hikvision lost 3.2% after the U.S. Federal Communications Commission designated the firm, along with four others Chinese companies including Huawei, as posing a threat to national security.

Economically sensitive firms including Hong Kong insurer AIA Group and auto giant Toyota Motor were among the biggest boosts to the MSCI Asia Pacific Index, while Tencent dragged on the measure, falling for a second day amid concerns over Chinese government oversight. Hong Kong stocks advanced, driven by AIA as well as Xiaomi, which jumped after a U.S. court blocked the Defense Department from restricting American investment in the Chinese smartphone giant. China’s stocks declined as persistent liquidity concerns overshadowed data showing the strength of the nation’s economic recovery. Philippine stocks fell the most in Asia, with its key equity index dropping 2.6%, amid escalating daily coronavirus infections.

Japan outperformed most of its regional peers Monday as investors bought cyclical value names while selling technology shares. Banks and automakers were the biggest boosts to the Topix, while electronics makers and telecom providers fell. Fast Retailing supported the blue-chip Nikkei 225 as SoftBank Group slid. E-commerce and telecom firm Rakuten jumped for a second day, after announcing plans to raise 242 billion yen ($2.2 billion) by selling shares to investors including Japan Post and Tencent Holdings. Japan’s high weighting of economically sensitive stocks has helped it outperform this year, with the Topix up 9.1% compared with a 3.6% rise for the Asian benchmark and 5% advance for the S&P 500.

In rates, the yields on 10-year Treasuries hovered near their 13-month high at 1.6266%, just below the peak of 1.64% hit on Friday as investors fear (but BofA disagrees) a $1.9 trillion relief package, which amounts to more than 8% of the country’s GDP, could stoke inflation.

Higher U.S. bond yields saw the dollar rising against other major currencies. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was steady, having climbed as much as 0.3% during Asian hours. Money managers unwound bearish bets on the dollar by a record in the week ended March 9, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The yen dropped to a nine-month low against the greenback. The dollar index rose 0.1%, while the euro slipped 0.2% to $1.1932 from last week’s high of $1.1990 while the dollar hit a nine-month high of 109.36 against the Japanese yen. The British pound slipped 0.3% to $1.3933.  Leveraged funds bought NZD/USD on speculation the acquisition of assets from New Zealand’s Tilt Renewables Ltd. will spur currency inflows, according to an Asia-based FX trader. NZD/USD rose as much as 0.6% to 0.7216, before paring gains. Option-related selling attached to 0.7200 strikes expiring Tuesday was taken out.  AUD/USD declined 0.2% to 0.7749. Bids attached to FX options at 0.7750 strike, worth notional A$1.26b, and expiring March 18 were partially filled.

“Biden’s economic stimulus is approved and expectations for recovery are heightening, raising hopes for March payroll numbers to come out quite strong to keep U.S. yields elevated,” said Takuya Kanda, general manager at Gaitame.com Research Institute in Tokyo. That should “maintain the bias for dollar buying,” he said

Bitcoin fell 1.6% from a record high after Reuters reported that India would propose a law banning cryptocurrencies.

In commodities, oil prices rose as data showed China’s economic recovery accelerated at the start of 2021, boosting the energy demand outlook at the world’s largest oil importer. Brent crude gained 0.8% to $69.76 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude added 0.8% to $66.14.

Looking at the weak ahead, major upcoming event include policy statements due Wednesday from the Federal Reserve and Friday from the Bank of Japan. A strong recovery from the Covid-19 recession is likely to prompt Fed Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues to lift interest rates in 2023, but that isn’t going to show up in their forecasts this week, a survey showed. For growth stocks to rebound, “Powell will have to make some detailed remarks about how to tamp down yields — but when the market is this heated, that’s highly unlikely,” said Hajime Sakai, the chief fund manager at Mito Securities Co. “Value stocks are still rising, so it’s not as if the entire market is weighed down.”

Some are worried that rising inflation expectations could prompt the Fed to signal it will start raising rates sooner when it announces its latest economic projections at the end of Federal Open Market Committee meeting on Wednesday. “Following the fiscal stimulus packages it is inevitable that Fed GDP forecasts will be revised up, and some FOMC members might think rates will have to move higher sooner than they anticipated last December,” wrote economists at ANZ. The Bank of England and Bank of Japan also have meetings on Thursday and Friday this week.

Monday’s data calendar is quiet, with only the Empire State Manufacturing Survey and TIC data on deck.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.3% to 3,943.25
  • SXXP Index up 0.6% to 425.43
  • MXAP down 0.2% to 207.47
  • MXAPJ down 0.5% to 690.26
  • Nikkei up 0.2% to 29,766.97
  • Topix up 0.9% to 1,968.73
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.3% to 28,833.76
  • Shanghai Composite down 1.0% to 3,419.95
  • Sensex down 1.7% to 49,943.69
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 little changed at 6,773.01
  • Kospi down 0.3% to 3,045.71
  • Brent futures up 0.6% to $69.65/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.3% to $1,732.15
  • U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 91.72
  • German 10Y yield down 2 bps to -0.33%
  • Euro down 0.2% to $1.1929

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • China’s economic activity surged in the first two months of the year compared with a year ago, though the figures showed an uneven recovery with strong industrial output fueled by exports but lagging consumer spending. The official data released Monday show unprecedented growth rates of more than 30% for key indicators, largely due to distortions when compared to last year’s shutdowns
  • Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said an increase in interest rates in financial markets reflects optimism that the U.K. economy will bounce back shortly
  • The European Commission is planning to begin legal action against the U.K. on Monday over the government’s decision to unilaterally change parts of the Brexit deal relating to Northern Ireland, according to a person with knowledge of the discussions
  • Turkey and Brazil may deliver the Group of 20’s first rate hikes in 2021 this week, potentially lending support to two currencies caught in the crosshairs amid surging U.S. Treasury yields

Quick look at global markets courtesy of NewSquawk

Asian equity markets traded mixed with the region tentative heading into this week’s plethora of central bank announcements including from the Fed, BoE and BoJ, while the latest Chinese activity data showed a larger than expected increase in Industrial Production and Retail Sales although the tailwinds from the data were short-lived with the surge largely due to base effects. ASX 200 (+0.1%) was choppy as losses in tech and mining names were counterbalanced by strength in energy and defensives, while Nikkei 225 (+0.2%) was kept afloat after machinery orders showed surprise growth Y/Y and with a decline in hospitalizations for the Tokyo region said to allow the government to plan lifting the state of emergency for the capital region instead of extending it when it expires at the end of this week. Furthermore, Rakuten shares rocketed by around 20% in early trade to hit limit up after news the Co. plans a USD 2.2bln share sale to Walmart, Tencent and Japan Post for stakes of 0.9%, 3.6% and 8.3% respectively. Hang Seng (+0.3%) and Shanghai Comp. (-1.0%) were varied with the Hong Kong benchmark led higher by strength in energy names and with Xiaomi the biggest gainer after a US federal judge ordered a temporary halt on enforcing the US investment ban on the Co. The latest activity numbers from China were also encouraging as Industrial Production (35.1% vs exp. 30.0%) and Retail Sales (33.8% vs exp. 32.0%) topped estimates which helped the mainland bourse briefly pare early losses, although the recovery in the mainland was short-lived and the surges in the figures weren’t much of a surprise given the low base from a year ago when China industrial output suffered its sharpest pace of decline in 30 years due to virus-related shutdowns amid the peak of its COVID-19 outbreak. India’s Sensex (-0.8%) fell below the 50k mark following disappointing data on Friday. Finally, 10yr JGBs are rangebound amid the tentative mood in stocks and with yields stable overnight, while the lack of BoJ purchases today also ensured quiet trade.

Top Asian news

  • Hong Kong Gives Vaccine Access to Young Adults as Uptake Slumps
  • Junk-Rated Laos Makes Third Attempt at Dollar Bond Offering
  • Protests Signal a Reckoning in Australia’s Struggle With Sexism
  • Chinese Stocks Slump as Upbeat Data Deepens Liquidity Concerns

European equities have kicked off the new week with modest gains across the majors (Euro Stoxx 50 +0.4%), after the region brushed off the selloff seen in China, with the tone across the markets somewhat tentative awaiting the US entrance – which will be an hour earlier due to the US time shift, with volatility expected heading into the open as Americans receive stimulus checks as part of the USD 1.9tln COVID relief package. US equity futures have nursed the mild losses experienced during APAC hours, with the value/cyclically-driven RTY (+0.6%) modestly outperforming peers. Back to Europe broad-based gains are seen across the majors, whilst the periphery sees the FTSE MIB (+1.1%) the outperforming region as banks are bolstered by price action in BTPs alongside potential sector consolidation following reports that the UniCredit (+0.9%) CEO could consider a merger with Mediobanca (+2.4%) or Generali (+0.4%), but was also mulling tie ups with Monte dei Paschi (+0.5%) or Banco BPM (+1.4%), according to Italian press. Further, the index sees tailwinds from Stellantis (+3.2%) after an “overweight” reaffirming at JPM. Sectors in Europe are mostly in the green with no real risk bias nor a particular growth/value skew. Travel & Leisure reside as the top performers amid the continuing vaccinations efforts, whilst IAG’s (+2.0%) British Airways is planning for travelers to be able to register their vaccines status via its app in a bid to make it easier for passengers to prove they are safe to travel. Telecoms are also faring well as BT (+3.2%) props up the sector as Ofcom is set to announce on Thursday that BT’s Openreach division will be able to make a “fair return” on its super-fast internet, which will allow the Co. to make a double-digit rate of return on its GBP 12bln investment in full-fibre broadband. Autos are bolstered by the aforementioned Stellantis performance whilst EV makers eye Volkswagen’s (+2.8%) battery day event. On the flip side, Oil & Gas have continued declining amid price action in the complex. Banks reside at the foot of the pile amid the lower-yield environment. In terms of individual movers, AstraZeneca (Unch) has largely shrugged off the mixed weekend reports whereby Ireland suspended its rollout of that particular drug amid the blood clot reports in Norway, albeit AstraZeneca released a press statement highlighting there there is no evidence of a link between blood clots and the vaccine. Flutter Entertainment (+7.0%) is firmer as the group confirmed it is weighing plans to spin-off its American FanDuel sports betting brand in a US listing. Danone (+3.6%) was bolstered after the Co’s board ousted Faber as Chairman amid activist pressure. Finally, ABN AMRO (-4.5%) trades at the foot of the pile with some pointing to a broadened investigation into the bank by Dutch persecutors.

Top European News

  • Roche to Buy Covid Test Maker GenMark for $1.8 Billion
  • Danone Replaces Chairman After Investors Called for Faber’s Job
  • Merkel’s Party Suffers in Regional Votes as Greens Win Big
  • Europe’s Real Estate Investors Put Their Faith in the Office

In FX, firm oil prices and a wider Norwegian trade surplus are helping the Krona make most of a broadly soft Euro against the backdrop of new lockdowns and tighter COVID-19 restrictions in Italy and elsewhere, not to mention defeat for Germany’s CDU party in regional elections. However, the Swedish Crown has been undermined by considerably softer than expected inflation data that may raise more eyebrows at the Riksbank via some of the more dovish members. Hence, Eur/Nok has breached 10.0500 to the downside and Eur/Sek 10.1700 to the upside even though Eur/Usd has slipped back further from recent almost aligning or twin peaks that also coincide with a key Fib retracement level at 1.1990 to trade under 1.1950.

  • NZD/AUD/USD – The Kiwi has regained 0.7200+ status, albeit marginally and in large part due to Aussie underperformance as Aud/Nzd retreats from just above 1.0800 to test bids/support around 1.0750 in wake of dovish commentary from RBA Governor Lowe that has more than offset positives via stronger than forecast Chinese data and the ongoing dividend conversion by mining companies. Indeed, Aud/Usd is pivoting 0.7750 having topped 0.7800 last Friday despite a general loss of recovery momentum in the Greenback that has nudged the DXY off best levels within a 91.866-537 range. Next up for the Antipodean Dollars, Westpac’s Q1 NZ consumer survey, RBA minutes and a speech by Kent.
  • CAD/GBP – Canadian housing starts and manufacturing sales loom, but the Loonie is still basking in jobs data glory following Friday’s impressive labour report, with extra fuel via the aforementioned bounce in crude. Usd/Cad has reversed from just shy of 1.2500 to probe 1.2450 and Sterling has also survived the potential loss of a round number, at 1.3900 with some assistance from quite unexpected remarks from BoE Governor Bailey just days before Thursday’s MPC event – see 8.11GMT post on the headline feed. Cable is now circa 1.3930, but the Pound more perky vs the Euro eyeing stops on a break of 0.8550 again vs a high of 0.8589 at one stage.
  • CHF/JPY – The Franc and Yen are narrowly mixed against the Buck after latest weekly Swiss bank sight deposits showing an absence of intervention and not as weak as feared Japanese machinery orders, with Usd/Chf hovering just under 0.9300 and Usd/Jpy a similar margin beyond 109.00. Note, the latter remains above key chart resistance in the form of the 200 WMA that comes in at 109.01, but has faded roughly 109.37 overnight.

In commodities, WTI and Brent front month futures started the week on the front foot and were both firmer on the session whilst hovering just of best levels despite APAC’s mixed lead. However, since the session opened and the early-arrival of US counterparts, crude futures have erased those gains and are flat on the session at the time of writing. Oil prices may have seen a rise in price following on from Chinese industrial output data which beat expectations and highlights their economy recovery has accelerated at the start of 2021, although this data has been distorted by a lower base effect and the Chinese Lunar New Year holiday. Moreover, top oil exporter Saudi Arabia has cut the supply of April-loading crude to at least four north-Asian buyers by up to 15% whilst meeting the standard monthly requirements of Indian refiners. In further news, the US overtook Saudi Arabia last month and became the second biggest oil supplier to India. This was potentially due to the lower crude demand in the US and Saudi Arabia’s voluntary 1mln BPD output cut alongside the OPEC+ agreement, although it remains to be see how distorted these figures were by the Texas deep-freeze. Adding some context, analysts note that due to the lower demand within the US, the crude had to go somewhere and with Asia seeing rapid demand recovery and China not taking US oil, because of trade problems, India was the obvious choice which resulted in the increase in supply. Additionally, regarding vaccination progress, the continued progression of the vaccine rollouts and increasing prospects of economic growth adds to the sentiment of rising oil prices. However, it should be noted a few countries have provisionally halted the rollout of the AstraZeneca vaccine with the worry it increases the chances of blood clots. WTI resides around the high-USD 65/bbl handle (vs high USD 66.40/bbl), and Brent trades low/mid USD 69/bbl handle (vs high USD 70.03/bbl). Risk events on the table today include ECB asset purchases and looking ahead to further in the week a plethora of central bank’s speaking. Elsewhere, precious metals have traded the early European hours choppy but are both firmer on the session with XAG (+0.8%) more so than XAU (+0.1%), and awaiting further direction from the upcoming risk events. At the time of writing, spot gold is trading just above the USD 1,728/oz handle and spot silver resides marginally above the 26/oz handle. Onto base metals, China’s crude steel output rose 12.9% in the first two months of 2021 Y/Y as the mills expanded production in anticipation of strengthening demand from the construction and manufacturing sectors. That being said, Dalian iron ore futures fell some 6% in overnight trade amid the ongoing pollution curbs China’s top steel-making city.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: March Empire Manufacturing, est. 14.5, prior 12.1
  • 4pm: Jan. Total Net TIC Flows, prior -$600m
  • 4pm: Jan. Net Foreign Security Purchases, prior $121b

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Today marks 52 weeks since I started working from home. Over that period I’ve done 100% of my work from my home office. Well apart from the conference call I did with 1500 people on the line from my boiler cupboard last March as that was the only place I had a landline phone connection at the time as my mobile signal died on me. Although WFH has been good, life has got so boring of late that I actually looked forward to a visit to a local country garden on Saturday. My expectations around what weekends can bring have been scaled back considerably. Roll on two weeks today when golf is back on the menu of legal activities.

It might be a bit dull in my home life at the moment but there is rarely a dull week in markets. Last week saw yet another interesting one with amongst others things, all time highs back for US equities after a month break, huge two-way swings in tech, GameStop back above it’s all time high intra-day on Wednesday, Bitcoin above 60k over the weekend, a $1.9tn stimulus package signed off, an ECB meeting that committed to more aggressive bond buying for a quarter but potentially creating cliff risk down the line, and to wrap things off a +8.8bps climb in 10yr US yields on Friday on speculation of a big block seller in the Asian session. We don’t get uneventful weeks at the moment and I can’t see too many of them going forward either given the huge forces and huge sums of money in markets at the moment.

The most impressive thing about Friday was that even though 10yr US real yields actually climbed +9.9bps, US equities clawed their way back to positive territory (+0.1%) on the day after earlier losses. Tech remained weak (NASDAQ -0.59%, NYFANG -1.65%) but rallied from the lows on Friday. We’ll have a fuller review of last week at the end before the day by day week ahead guide.

On this topic our US equity strategists have upgraded their earnings and equity targets in light of the passing of the US stimulus bill and recent DB US GDP upgrades. They have raised their year end 2021 S&P 500 target to 4100 (20.2x $202) from 3950 previously, and to 465 for the Stoxx 600 (17.2x €27) from 450. From current levels, these imply upside of another 5% for the US and 10% for Europe. Their earnings estimates for US (S&P 500) EPS in 2021 increased from $194 to $202 (+43% yoy) and up to $222 for 2022 (+10% yoy). For Europe (Stoxx 600) they’ve raised 2021 earnings growth from +47% yoy to +59%. Reflecting the fact that multiples are already very high, especially in the US, they think these will fall slightly. See their full note here including all their sector preferences.

With yields backing up aggressively on Friday there is only one place to look this week and that’s the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. We’ll preview it briefly below. The Bank of England (Thursday) and Bank of Japan (Friday) also have meetings. While it’s a lighter data calendar, there are a number of important releases. These include US industrial production and retail sales (tomorrow), Euro Area CPI, and March consumer sentiment surveys from around Europe. There will be fewer earnings releases this week with just 32 companies between the S&P 500 and STOXX 600 reporting.

Overnight in Asia, we have seen China’s Jan-Feb main economic data dump with industrial production printing at +35.1% yoy (vs. 32.2% yoy expected) while retail sales came in at +33.8% yoy (vs. 32% yoy expected). The National Bureau of Statistics noted that average growth in industrial production was +8.1% higher than the same period in 2019 compared with +3.2% for retail sales. Fixed asset investments came in on the softer side with a reading of +35% yoy (vs. +40.9% yoy expected) while the surveyed jobless rate jumped to 5.5% at the end of February (vs. 5.2% in December).

Asian markets are generally trading weaker this morning with the Hang Seng ( -0.04%), CSI (-1.97%), Shanghai Comp (-0.92%), Kospi (-0.21%) and India’s Nifty (-1.09%) all down while the Nikkei (+0.07%) is posting small gains. China’s money market rates rose overnight after the PBoC shied away from providing more liquidity into the financial system over and above what is required for that maturing. Overnight repo rate rose by 46bps to 2.24% while seven-day repo rate climbed by 16bps to 2.27%. Sovereign yields continue to rise with those on 10Y USTs up +1bps to 1.636% while those on 10y Australia and New Zealand are up an even larger +8.7bps and +11bps respectively catching up with Friday’s US move. Futures on the S&P 500 are marginally up (+0.05%).

As markets continue to worry about the inflationary pressures, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said over the weekend that US inflation risk remains small and ‘manageable’. We also heard from the ECB Governing Council member Martins Kazaks who said that a “rise in yields will need to be accepted. But it should be gradual to avoid premature tightening.” He also said that “an increase in bond yields will not necessarily mean larger purchases, if we see more of this driven by the strength of the European economy.”

We also got a flavour of what is brewing in German politics over the weekend, with the CDU posting worst results since World War II in two regional election. Support for the CDU slumped by -3.7pp to 23.3% in the western state of Baden-Wuerttemberg compared with the last election in 2016, according to initial projections by public broadcaster ARD. Similarly, the projections for neighbouring Rhineland-Palatinate showed that the support for the CDU dropped by -5.8pp compared with 2016 to 26%. The Greens were the big relative winners on the night. Interesting ahead of Federal elections in the autumn.

Turning to the latest on the pandemic, AstraZeneca said over the weekend that a “careful” review of all available data of the more than 17mn vaccinated people in the European Union and the U.K., shows no evidence of an increased risk of pulmonary embolism, deep vein thrombosis (DVT) or thrombocytopenia. Despite this Ireland became the latest country to temporarily suspend the usage of the AZ vaccine. We also learnt over the weekend that the EU will roll-out J&J vaccine in late April with 200mn doses reaching the EU by the end of summer.

Starting the fuller week ahead preview with the main event of the week now. The FOMC on Wednesday, and the ensuing press conference from Chair Powell, will likely dictate where yields and risk trade for days, if not weeks ahead. In their preview (link here), our US economists highlight that the Committee is likely to update their economic projections with a substantial upward revision to expected growth, a lower unemployment forecasts, and a modestly higher inflation trajectory following the passage of President Biden’s $1.9tn Covid19 relief package. Despite this, Chair Powell is likely to emphasise that significant uncertainties remain and that the recovery has a long way to go, particularly the labour market. Powell is also likely to reiterate that any discussion of tapering is “premature” and that it will likely be “some time” before the Committee can even assess if their goals have been achieved. On the topic of rising yields – US 10yr yields are up around 60bps since the last FOMC meeting in late January – he will likely once again emphasise that the Fed has the tools to deal with issues as they arise and that they would respond to disruptive or persistent tightening of financial conditions as necessary. It’s fair to say it’s a pivotal meeting though.

Meanwhile in the UK, the Bank of England will present their policy decision on Thursday, and much like with the Fed this week and the ECB last week much of the focus will be on how the BOE interprets the recent sharp rise in yields. They are likely to try and strike a similar balance between the market pricing in an improving outlook and not wanting financial conditions to tighten excessively. The market is not expecting a change to either the policy rate or asset purchases.

The final major central bank decision comes from the Bank of Japan on Friday, where our economist (link here) believe it will adjust its present policy framework after the release of the results of its ongoing policy assessment. They see the meeting as more unpredictable following Governor Kuroda’s comments on 5 March, but they believe the bank will consider more effective equity ETF purchasing along with measures to alleviate the adverse side effects of its negative interest rate policy. The week will also see monetary policy decisions from the central banks of Russia, Brazil, Norway and Turkey. Russia is set to keep rates steady, but could hint at tightening financial conditions. On the other hand, Brazil is expected to start a tightening cycle.

Last week risk markets bounced back even as global bond yields largely continued their climb. The S&P 500 gained +2.64% on the week (+0.10% Friday), and rose to a record high for the first time since mid-February on Thursday. Small caps also rose to all-time highs while outperforming strongly as the Russell 2000 gained +7.32% over the five days. Tech stocks recovered as well with the NASDAQ composite up +3.09% over the course of the week, though large cap techs stocks continue to lag their cyclical peers, with NYFANG index rising just +2.03% after an up and down week. Bank stocks on both sides of the Atlantic continued to rise with US Banks rising +4.04% while their European counterparts gained +2.06%. The STOXX 600 outperformed US stocks overall, with the index up +3.52% (-0.26% Friday) with the German DAX (+4.18%), French CAC (+4.56%) and Spanish IBEX (+4.32%) notably outperforming.

US 10yr yields finished the week +5.9bps higher (+8.8bps Friday) at 1.625% – its highest closing level since mid-February of last year. It was the sixth weekly rise in yields, which is the longest streak since Jan/Feb 2018. The move on the long end of the curve saw the 2y10y yield curve steepen another +5.0bps to 147.4bps, its steepest level since September 2015. Meanwhile UK gilts rose +6.6bps to 0.82% 10y bund yields initially fell -5.3bps to three week lows just after the initial ECB revised PEPP announcement but they ended the week down just -0.4bps overall.

In terms of data releases, Friday was a busy day as Germany’s CPI showed prices rose +0.7% MoM and +1.3% YoY in February, both in line with estimates. Meanwhile the UK’s January industrial production numbers came in below expectations, falling -1.5% MoM (vs. -1.0% est) and -4.9% YoY (vs. -4.4% est), highlighting the effects of the most recent lockdown. Even so the UK’s January monthly GDP did not fall as far as feared, coming in at -2.9% (vs. -4.9% est). The Euro Area’s January industrial production rose +0.8% (vs. +0.5% est). In the US, February PPI ex Food and Energy MoM was in-line with estimates at +0.2%, well behind the previous month’s +1.2% rise. March’s Michigan Sentiment survey showed a rebound back to 83.0 (vs. 78.5 est) from 76.8 – its highest level since the start of the pandemic.

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)MONDAY MORNING/ SUNDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 33.13 PTS OR .96%   //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 94. 04 PTS OR .33    /The Nikkei closed UP 49.14 POINTS OR 0.17%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.06%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed  UP AT 6.5033 /Oil UP TO 65.56 dollars per barrel for WTI and 69.12 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.5033. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.5076 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS //TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED//CORONAVIRUS/PANDEMIC/TRUMP TESTS POSITIVE FOR COVID 19  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3 C CHINA

CHINA

Chinese markets slump despite strong industrial production and retail sales

(zerohedge)

Chinese Markets Slump Despite Soaring Industrial Production, Retail Sales

 
MONDAY, MAR 15, 2021 – 7:28

Chinese stocks fell, starting the week off on the back foot despite solid January-February economic data which showed surging industrial production and retail sales growth stronger than market expectations, although weaker-than-expected investment growth and higher unemployment point to an uneven recovery (Goldman noted that it expects the strength in export growth to continue supporting manufacturing activity, and services and consumption should recover further as the local outbreak of coronavirus was brought under control).

Here are the key numbers:

  • Industrial production (IP): +35.1% yoy in January-February beating the Bloomberg consensus: +32.2% yoy). December: +7.3% yoy
  • Retail sales: +33.8% yoy in January-February (GS: +35.0% yoy, Bloomberg consensus: +32.0% yoy); December: +4.6% yoy.
  • Fixed asset investment (FAI): +35% ytd yoy in January-February (GS: +40.0% yoy, Bloomberg consensus: +40.9% ytd yoy); December single month: +5.1% yoy.
  • Unemployment rates (nationwide): 5.4% in January-February, vs. 5.2% in December.
  • Unemployment rates (31 major cities): 5.5% in January-February, vs. 5.1% in December.

Property-related data:

  • Floor space sold: +104.9% yoy in January-February, vs. +11.5% yoy in December (value of sales: +133.5% yoy, vs. +18.9% yoy in December).
  • Floor area under construction: +11.0% yoy in January-February, vs. +3.7% yoy in December.
  • New starts: +64.3% yoy in January-February, vs. +6.3% yoy in December.
  • Completions: +40.4% yoy in January-February, vs. -0.2% yoy in December.
  • Real estate investment: +38.3% yoy in January-February, vs. +9.3% yoy in December.

Some further observations on the data from Goldman:

1. Year-over-year growth in activity data accelerated materially in January-February on the back of the very low base last year. IP increased 35.1% yoy on the back of the strength in export growth. Production of computers/electronics, electrical machinery and autos were the major drivers of IP acceleration in January-February vs December (Exhibit 2).

2. Fixed asset investment (FAI) growth was below market expectations in January-February. Property investment rose 38.3% yoy in January-February (vs. 9.3% in December). Manufacturing investment was up 37.3% yoy in January-February (vs. +6.9% yoy in December). Infrastructure investment increased 35.9% yoy in January-February.

3. Retail sales growth was above market expectations in January-February. Automobile sales jumped to 77.6% yoy from 6.4% yoy in December. Catering sales rose 68.9% yoy in January-February (vs. +0.4% yoy in December). Overall, online goods sales outperformed in January-February: rising 30.6% yoy vs. 33.8% for total retail sales despite +3.0% yoy in last January/February vs. -21.1% for total retail sales. Online goods sales growth (included in total retail sales) rose +30.6% yoy in January-February from +7.3% yoy in December. On a real basis, retail sales growth in January-February rose 34.3% yoy, vs 4.9% yoy in December. The Services Industry Output Index, which is on a real basis and also tracks tertiary GDP growth closely, rose +31.1% yoy in January-February (vs. +7.7% yoy in December; average annual growth +6.8% yoy in January-February 2020-21).

4. Property sales volume surged 104.9% yoy (vs. +11.5% in December) and housing completions rose 40.4% yoy in January-February (vs. -0.2% in December) on a low base. Retail sales data suggest furniture sales and home appliances accelerated to 58.7% and 43.2% yoy, respectively, in January-February (vs. +0.4%/11.2% in December), in line with growth in completions. Housing starts grew +64.3% yoy in January-February from +6.3% in December and building material sales rose by 52.8% yoy (vs. +12.9% in December).

5. Unemployment levels rose in January-February partially due to Chinese New Year seasonality: The nationwide survey-based unemployment rate rose by 0.2pp to 5.4% in January-February, and the 31-city surveyed unemployment rate rose to 5.5%, though the levels are still below the average nationwide survey-based unemployment rate of 5.6% in 2020.

* * *

In sum, China’s economic activity data showed strong acceleration in year-over-year terms on a very favorable base effect. In sequential terms, industrial production remained strong in the first two months of the year, but retail sales and fixed investment appeared to still be lagging behind. Looking ahead, Goldman expect the strength in export growth to continue supporting manufacturing activity, and services and consumption should recover further as the local outbreak of coronavirus was brought under control. Based on the historical relationship, the January-February IP and service output index suggest some upside risk to Goldman’s Q1 GDP forecast of 17.3% yoy.

In response to the data, China’s CSI 300 initially rebounded from an early drop only to decline again, sliding almost 2%. The ChiNext Index tumbled more than 3.5%. The Hang Seng Index gained 0.6%, propelled by Xiaomi after a U.S. court blocked the Defense Department from restricting American investment in the Chinese smartphone company. Tencent dragged on the index after a report on China’s increased scrutiny of its finance-related businesses.

CHINA/CANADA

China’s artic ambitions are posing a growing threat to Canadian interests. They will steal our fish and resources as they navigate through the North west passage

(Chen/EpochTimes)

China’s Arctic Ambitions Pose Growing Threat To Canadian Interests, Top Defence Official Warns

 
SATURDAY, MAR 13, 2021 – 23:30

Authored by Andrew Chen via The Epoch Times,

China’s geo-political ambition in the Arctic is posing a growing threat to Canadian interests, a top Defence official warned.

Defence Deputy Minister Jody Thomas told the Ottawa Conference on Security and Defence on Wednesday that as melting ice opens up the Arctic Ocean, Beijing has set eyes on the Northwest Passage for new shipping routes and resource extraction, including fish, fossil fuel, and minerals.

“We should not underestimate at all that threat of resource exploitation in the Arctic by China in particular,” Thomas said, according to a Globe and Mail report.

“China has a voracious appetite and will stop at nothing to feed itself, and the Arctic is one of the last domains and regions left and we have to understand it and exploit it and more quickly than they can exploit it,” she said.

Last December, Ottawa blocked a Chinese state-owned company from taking over a Nunavut gold mine, which would give Beijing a stronger foothold in the Arctic. David Harris, a former contractor with the Canadian Security and Intelligence Service, previously told The Epoch Times that a deal with China would have posed serious security and economic threats to Canada.

Beijing’s aggressive moves to control rare-earth minerals—material that is crucial for the high-tech and military industries—and its plans to seize minerals in Canada’s northern region prompted the United States and Canada to develop a joint strategy last year to reform the global critical mineral supply chains and reduce reliance on Chinese exports.

Thomas also said Canada has sent a message to China by deploying warships to the South China Sea, where Beijing has in recent years been actively seeking military and geo-political dominance. The South China Sea is also vital for global shipping and commerce.

“The deployment of the Navy in particular to the South China Sea is one of the messages that can be sent,” Thomas said, Globe and Mail reported.

“[The deployments] are about the rules-based order and freedom of navigation, the freedom of the seas and the fact we will not be bullied into changing the geography of the world.”

“A lot of people wonder why we care about the South China Sea. It’s because the geography of this planet has been changed and we have allowed it to happen,” she said.

Thomas said Russia’s activities in the Arctic are also troubling. Last month, Russia launched a space satellite to monitor the Arctic climate, as the country seeks to develop the energy-rich region. Russia has also built military bases in their Arctic region.

“Nobody would invest the kind of money in building up the military capacity in the Arctic without reason, intent, or purpose. We should not be naive about that. It doesn’t mean it is immediate—but it is there,” Thomas said.

END
 

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

GERMANY/sunday

Merkel’s party suffers stunning defeats in 2 German states as citizens there are thoroughly annoyed at their lockdowns

(zerohedge)

Merkel’s Party Suffers Stunning Defeats In 2 German States Amid Bungled Pandemic Response

 
SUNDAY, MAR 14, 2021 – 17:45

Projections show that Chancellor Angela Merkel’s center-right Christian Democratic Union party just got rocked by clear defeats in two German state elections Sunday. Significantly it’s being widely interpreted as a severe setback and sign of things to come just six months ahead national voting to determine who will lead the country. Though Merkel – who has been in power since 2005 – is not running, the CDU hoped to capitalize off her past four consecutive national election victories. 

It appears Sunday’s resounding message is the bloc’s dominance is coming to a swift end. Two governors seen as further to the left are the projected winners in the southwestern states of Baden-Wuerttemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate, riding a wave of popular discontent over Merkel’s perceived bungling of the pandemic crisis and the government response. 

As The Associated Press comments“Amid discontent over a sluggish start to Germany’s vaccination drive, with coronavirus restrictions easing only gradually and infections rising again…”

And additionally Merkel’s bloc was “hit over the past two weeks by allegations that two lawmakers profited from deals to procure masks early in the coronavirus pandemic.”

Based on current polling data it stands to be the CDU’s worst post-World War II defeat in both states. Here’s a breakdown of the projections based on exit polls:

Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) already faced a challenging task against two popular state governors from rival parties. Exit polls for ARD and ZDF television indicated that those governors’ parties – the environmentalist Greens in Baden-Wuerttemberg and the center-left Social Democrats (SPD) in Rhineland-Palatinate – were set to finish first, some 8 percentage points ahead of the CDU.

The Greens won 31.5 percent of the vote in Baden-Wuerttemberg and the CDU 23 percent, down from the 27 percent it polled at the last state election in 2016, according to the ZDF polls.

In neighboring Rhineland-Palatinate, the SPD came first again with 33.5 percent of the vote ahead of the CDU, which led there in opinion polls until last month but was projected to have secured only 25.5 percent support in Sunday’s election.

 

Via AFP

Christian Democratic Union general secretary, Paul Ziemiak, said as the results were being tallied, “To say it very clearly, this isn’t a good election evening for the CDU.” He added, “We would have liked different, better results.”

“The CDU has seen its national popularity wane from 40% last June, when Germany was widely praised for its response to the coronavirus pandemic, to around 33% this month,” Reuters noted in its prior analysis. 

Various German and other European media are predicting this marks the beginning of a glimpse of life after Angela Merkel. 

end
Brexit is certainly taking a toll on the UK economy as tradw with the EU falls sharply.
(zerohedge)

Brexit takes its toll on U.K. economy as trade with EU falls sharply

March 15, 2021 at 6:16 a.m. ET

MarketWatch

Trade with the European Union fell sharply in January after the end of the Brexit transition period at the beginning of the year, numbers from the Office for National Statistics showed on Friday. But the U.K. economy shrank less than expected.

The U.K. economy shrank less than expected in January, but trade with the European Union fell sharply after the end of the Brexit transition period at the beginning of the year, numbers from the Office for National Statistics showed on Friday.

Exports of goods to the EU fell by 40.7% compared with December, and imports by 28.8%, by far the largest declines since comparable numbers began to be collected in 1997.

By comparison, exports to non-EU countries rose 1.7% and imports from the same group only fell by 17.6%.

The U.K. left the EU single market and its customs union on Jan. 1.

The ONS also said that gross domestic product in January shrank by 2.9%, way below an analyst consensus forecast of a 4.9% fall.

Besides shrinking trade, the GDP fall is mostly due to the COVID-19 pandemic restrictions to economic activity that were imposed shortly after the new year, including the closure of schools.

The hit to services and manufacturing was in part compensated by a significant increase in health spending, due to the nationwide rollout of a “test and trace” system.

The outlook: Expect GDP to pick up from March, after the beginning of a successful vaccination campaign, followed by the gradual reopening of the economy. But the trade numbers seem to show that the border problems are more than the Brexit “teething problems” shrugged off by the government.

The real trade meltdown may not be as large as reflected by the January numbers, because of an inventory pile up in December, when businesses prepared for Brexit in earnest. And the paperwork and compliance problems encountered by businesses to move goods across the border can be expected to ease in the coming months.

But a rising number of businesses are also devising new supply chains to avoid the costs induced by Brexit. And the magnitude of the fall in U.K. exports to the EU gives an idea of the economic price to pay for increased trade frictions with the country’s largest market by far.

From the archives (February 2021): Amsterdam just overtook London as Europe’s new top stock-trading venue.

-END-

 

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

IRAN/USA

First of all, the Biden administration are idiots if they belief in “indirect diplomacy” with the Iranian clowns. Second, Iran will not negotiate unless they remove the sanctions which the USA will not do. Israel will be ready to strike once they determine that Iran is close to a nuclear bomb.

(Dave DeCamp/Antiwar.com)

 

US Now Engaged In “Indirect Diplomacy” With Iran On Reviving Nuke Deal: Sullivan

 
SATURDAY, MAR 13, 2021 – 18:30

Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said the US is engaged in “indirect diplomacy” with Tehran through Europeans and other parties on the way forward to revive the Iran nuclear deal, known as the JCPOA.

“Diplomacy with Iran is ongoing, just not in a direct fashion at the moment,” Sullivan told reporters on Friday. “There are communications through the Europeans and through others that enable us to explain to the Iranians what our position is with respect to the compliance for compliance approach and to hear what their position is.”

 

National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, via AP

“Compliance for compliance” is a phrase Biden administration officials are using as their stance on the JCPOA. The issue is, the US is the party that came out of compliance first by reimposing sanctions on Tehran in 2018. After that, Iran waited a year before it began gradually increasing the activity of its civilian nuclear program.

Throughout this process, Iran has tried everything to preserve the JCPOA by working with the other signatories to the deal. And since the US withdrew, Iran is no longer bound by the limits set by the JCPOA, so it is not technically violating the agreement.

The Biden administration has rejected the idea of offering sanctions relief before talks with Iran. “We are waiting at this point to hear further from the Iranians how they would like to proceed,” Sullivan said.

“This is not going to be easy but we believe that we are in a diplomatic process now that we can move forward on and ultimately secure our objective, which is to prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon and to do so through diplomacy,” Biden’s national security advisor added.

end

6.Global Issues

CORONAVIRUS UPATE/CANADA

Amazon

Amazon fulfillment centre  in Brampton Ont (just north of Toronto has been ordered closed due to COVID outbreak.

(zero hedge_ 

Amazon Fulfillment Center Near Toronto Ordered Closed After COVID Outbreak

 
SATURDAY, MAR 13, 2021 – 12:15

New COVID-19 cases and deaths have been on a steady decline in Canada since early January, but rising infections at one Amazon facility in the country forced local health officials to shut down a fulfillment center for the next two weeks, reported Global News.

An Amazon facility in Brampton, Canada, a city in Ontario’s Greater Toronto Area, has closed, and all employees at the facility are self-isolating for the next two weeks, effective Saturday.

“The current public health investigation has determined that high-risk exposure to COVID-19 for everyone working at Amazon Heritage cannot be ruled out. Over the past few weeks, the rate of COVID-19 infection across Peel has been decreasing while the rate inside this facility has been increasing significantly,” Lawrence Loh, medical officer of health for the Peel region, said in a Friday statement.

Infections across the Regional Municipality of Peel that houses Brampton have been on a steady decline, though cases at the Amazon facility have been surging. Despite Amazon’s attempt to contain the outbreak, the facility recorded 600 cases since October. The facility’s closure will allow the e-commerce giant to pursue “additional operational changes” that health officials ordered to avoid future outbreaks, said Loh.

“There’s evidence that those cases are actually spreading outside the contained clusters that have been previously identified,” he said.

Several of the most recent infections were found to be more contagious variants of COVID-19. “This Amazon facility is in a vulnerable community and employs thousands of people,” Loh said.

“Immediate action must be taken to protect these essential workers and the community where they live,”he said.

Amazon Canada spokesperson Dave Bauer said the e-commerce company is regularly testing employees at its facilities, adding that “the closure may have some short-term impact on our Canadian customers.”

… and nearly one year ago, at least ten Amazon warehouses in North America (mainly the US) had workers who contracted the virus. By now, one would imagine that Amazon would’ve figured out the process to mitigate outbreaks at its fulfillment centers. By late 2020, WaPo reported nearly 20,000 warehouse employees tested positive for the virus across the US. 

Last month, Amazon went on the offensive and sued New York’s attorney general seeking to stop the state from taking legal action over its early COVID-19 response, including its firing of activist Christian Smalls, and arguing that State Attorney General Letitia James exceeded her authority to penalize the company for alleged failures in its pandemic safety protocols and treatment of workers at New York City warehouses.

With some downtime, perhaps the Brampton facility employees will take notice of the 5,800 workers in Bessemer, Alabama, who are attempting to unionize. 

END
A no brainer: virtually every indicator shows the pandemic sets back childhood development: UNICEF
(zerohedge)

“Virtually Every Indicator” Shows Pandemic Sets Back Childhood Development: UNICEF

 
SUNDAY, MAR 14, 2021 – 9:55

There’s no question that the virus pandemic has impacted the younger generation that could deeply scar them, mentally and physically, for years. More than one year since the pandemic began, UNICEF warns“progress has gone backward across virtually every key measure of childhood.”

“The number of children who are hungry, isolated, abused, anxious, living in poverty and forced into marriage has increased. At the same time, their access to education, socialization and essential services including health, nutrition, and protection has decreased”, Henrietta Fore, UNICEF Executive Director, said in a statement

“The signs that children will bear the scars of the pandemic for years to come are unmistakable,” Fore continued. 

UNICEF’s latest data is a stark reminder that shuttering the economy and schools for an extended period is a flawed policy decision. In a rare moment on Wednesday, Anthony Fauci told CNN there is no scientific reason why people who have had the COVID-19 vaccine are still having their freedoms restricted. Further, there has been widespread evidence showing that children’s immune response to the virus is better than adults’. But still, many schools are closed around the world… 

Fore requested governments place children “at the heart of recovery efforts,” particularly by “prioritizing schools in reopening plans.”

Here are UNICEF’s results that show “virtually every indicator” of progress for children has reversed under lockdowns: 

  • In developing countries, child poverty is expected to increase by around 15 percent. An additional 140 million children in these countries are also already projected to be in households living below the poverty line.
  • Schools for more than 168 million schoolchildren globally have been closed for almost a year. Two-thirds of countries with full or partial closures are in Latin America and the Caribbean.
  • At least 1 in 3 schoolchildren has been unable to access remote learning while their schools were closed.
  • Around 10 million additional child marriages may occur before the end of the decade, threatening years of progress in reducing the practice.
  • At least 1 in 7 children and young people has lived under stay-at-home policies for most of the last year, leading to feelings of anxiety, depression, and isolation.
  • As of November 2020, an additional 6 to 7 million children under age 5 may have suffered from wasting or acute malnutrition in 2020, resulting in almost 54 million wasted children, a 14 percent rise that could translate into more than 10,000 additional child deaths per month – mostly in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. With a 40 percent decline in nutrition services for children and women, many other nutrition outcomes can worsen.

Politicians and unelected officials experimented with lockdowns, social distancing, and school delays without considering the long-term consequences. So far, according to the research above, the impact on younger generations has been horrific. We’ve mentioned before – this has produced a slow-motion mental health explosion

end
 
If Fauci is right and a new surge is coming because of mutants, it can only be from the vaccine itself  (re Mike Whitney)
(zerohedge)

Fauci Warns Of New COVID Surge, Urges Trump To Promote Vaccines

 
SUNDAY, MAR 14, 2021 – 14:00

Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation’s top infectious diseases expert and highest paid federal employee in the country, is on another Sunday media junket – telling Fox News’ Chris Wallace that a new wave of COVID-19 infections could be on their way, and urged former President Trump to start promoting vaccines to his followers.

Europe “always seems to be a few weeks ahead of us,” said Fauci, adding that this is “absolutely no time to declare victory” just because of a sharp dropoff in cases, causing several states choosing to ease pandemic restrictions.

“They thought they were home free, and they weren’t, and now they are seeing cases going up,” Fauci said, referring to European health officials.

Citing a PBS NewsHour/NPR/Marist poll released last week which revealed about half of US men who identified as Republicans say they don’t plan to get the vaccine, Wallace asked whether Trump should speak directly to his supporters about the vaccine, to which Fauci replied: “I hope he does because the numbers that you gave are so disturbing.”

“How such a large proportion of a certain group of people would not want to get vaccinated merely because of political considerations … it makes absolutely no sense,” said Fauci – whose NIH funded gain-of-function bat COVID experiments in Wuhan, China through New York-based nonprofit EcoHealth Alliance.

Fauci added that getting the vaccine is a “no brainer,” before rattling off a list of diseases which had been cured by vaccines (developed over years, not months), such as small pox. “What is the problem here? This is a vaccine that is going to be lifesaving for millions of people,” he added.

He then went on “Meet The Press,” where he parroted his earlier performance regarding Trump and Trump supporters.

Hilariously, host Chuck Todd suggested that climate change may contribute to the spread of more viruses:

Meanwhile, Fauci told CNN‘s “State of the Union” that an uptick in cases can be avoided if Americans keep up with vaccinations “without all of a sudden pulling back on public health measures.”

“We will gradually be able to pull them (restrictions) back. And if things go as we planned, just as the president said, by the time we get into the early summer, the Fourth of July weekend, we really will have a considerable degree of normality. But we don’t want to let that escape from our grasp by being too precipitous in pulling back,” Fauci continued, according to The Guardian.

end

More and more European countries are banning the use of AstraZenca’s vaccine: Ireland and the Netherlands joined others.  Too any side effects, blood cots plus other nasty stuff.  

(zerohedge)

AstraZeneca’s ‘European Nightmare’ Worsening As Ireland, Netherlands Latest To Ban Jabs

 
MONDAY, MAR 15, 2021 – 10:18

Despite the best efforts of Brussels and AstraZeneca to convince Europeans that there is no heightened risk of deadly blood clots associate with the COVID vaccine developed by AstraZeneca and Oxford, more countries have banned the jabs, adding another massive obstacle to Europe’s already faltering vaccination effort.

Even as regulators from Europe to Asia insist that they have found no fault with the AZ jabs, the Netherlands has announced plans to join a growing list of about a dozen places, including northern Italy, Ireland and Thailand, moving to suspend the shot over concerns about possible side effects from two batches.

About a dozen countries have banned the jabs, although Thailand allowed AZ jabs to proceed on Monday, four days after halting them. Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-Ocha and some of his cabinet members will be receiving it on Tuesday after a medical panel said there was no sign the vaccine contributed to blood clots.

AstraZeneca said a “careful” review of all available data of the more than 17MM people in the EU and the UK that have received the AZ jab showed no evidence of an increased risk of pulmonary embolism, deep vein thrombosis or thrombocytopenia. Yet, more reports of deadly blood clots in post-vaccine patients have emerged. Marco Cavaleri, European Medicines Agency’s chair of the vaccine evaluation team, insisted in an interview with France24 on Monday, that there is no causal link right now between AstraZeneca shots and deaths. The WHO has called the jab “excellent”, and insisted there is no reason to delay inoculations.

AstraZeneca’s Chief Medical Officer Ann Taylor said the number of events are lower than what would be expected to occur naturally in a general population of that size. In studies, participants getting the vaccine had fewer clots than those given placebo. Others warned that the world can’t halt vaccination campaigns every time somebody who receives the vaccine gets sick.

More deaths have been potentially linked to the vaccine, as Denmark’s Medicines Agency said a 60-year-old woman died after receiving the AstraZeneca shot, suffering from an “unusual” combination of symptoms that raised suspicions.

For the bureaucrat-kings in Brussels, questions about the AstraZeneca vaccine’s safety is only the latest problem with the vaccination rollout. Production of the vaccine has been slower than expected. One plant in the Netherlands is still awaiting regulatory approval to deploy doses.

The site, owned by the manufacturer Halix, is making the vaccine drug substance for Astra, and forms part of both the EU and UK supply chains, Bloomberg reported.

These issues mean Astra will only be able to deliver about 100MM doses to the EU in the first half of the year, only 1/3rd the number originally touted by Brussels. 30MM doses are due to be delivered by the end of this quarter, with the rest coming in the next three months.

The suspensions may further embed negative views, despite the guidance from the European Medicines Agency. The EMA guidance wasn’t enough to convince Ireland to continue with the vaccine and its Health Minister on Sunday recommended temporarily halting the shot.

The reputational damage has been done. A high number of Europeans are saying they would prefer an alternative.

After the Italian government barred vaccinations from a batch of AstraZeneca jabs late last week, officials from the northern region of Piedmont said on Sunday it would stop using a batch of AstraZeneca coronavirus shots after a teacher died following his vaccination on Saturday. Italian newspapers reported it was batch ABV5811 and a source close to the regional government confirmed it.

“It is an act of extreme prudence, while we verify whether there is a connection. There have been no critical issues with the administration of vaccines to date,” said Luigi Genesio Icardi, head of regional health services, said in the statement.

The region, around the northern city of Turin, had initially suspended all AstraZeneca vaccines in order to identify and isolate the batch from which the jab administered to the teacher, from the town of Biella, came. The decision, following similar moves elsewhere in Europe, was precautionary and the region is awaiting the results of checks which will verify whether there is a connection between the death and the vaccination.

AstraZeneca’s “European nightmare”, as Bloomberg called it, comes as fears about spreading COVID variants intensify. Dr. Fauci warned about it over the weekend, and Dr. Scott Gottlieb dedicated his morning update on CNBC to the B117 variant and its conquest of NYC.

Meanwhile, Denmark’s Medicines Agency says a 60-year-old woman who died after receiving an AstraZeneca vaccine shot against Covid suffered from an “unusual” combination of symptoms as the number of suspicious deaths suspected of links to the jab is nearly a dozen. That comes after the most alarming report over the weekend: Three health workers in Norway who had recently received thevaccine were being treated in hospital for bleeding, blood clots and a low count of blood platelets, Norwegian health authorities said on Saturday.

The woman had a low blood platelet count, blood clots in large and small vessels as well as bleeding, according to sources cited in Bloomberg’s report. These symptoms are “highly unusual” and are being thoroughly investigated by the EMA.

While Thailand’s decision to restart vaccinations is certainly a welcome sign, it doesn’t change the fact that the UK’s AstraZeneca jab – what was supposed to be the European champion – is now facing such intense resistance and doubt means the EU will almost certainly continue to lag behind the US and Briton.

 

Pretty soon, Brussels might be forced to finally acknowledge that Russia built a more effective, and more reliable jab by approving “Sputnik V” for use in the EU as a growing number of countries (most recently, Italy) move to unilaterally accept the jabs.

ICELAND
Volcano threat has now been elevated as Iceland has been hit with multiple earthquakes. Since huge number of flights pass over Iceland, this will disrupt airtravel.
(zerohedge)

34,000 Earthquakes Rock Iceland In Weeks As Volcano Threat Elevated 

 
SUNDAY, MAR 14, 2021 – 7:35

The number of earthquakes is rapidly increasing since Mar. 4, when we first told readers a volcanic eruption could be brewing in Iceland. According to Financial Times, in the last few weeks, more than 34,000 quakes have been recorded on the Reykjanes Peninsula as the country is on “high alert” for the next volcanic eruption. 

“Never before have so many people in Iceland experienced so much seismic activity,” Thorbjorg Agustsdottir, a seismologist at the government-run Iceland GeoSurvey, told FT. “They’re getting tired of being woken up and ask: when’s it going to stop?”

Most of the quakes are around the south-west Reykjanes peninsula that includes Reykjavík, the capital of Iceland, home to 122,000 residents, the Keflavík International Airport, and critical infrastructure.

34,000 Quakes Rock Iceland In Weeks 

Melissa Anne Pfeffer, an atmospheric volcanologist at the Icelandic Meteorological Office (the nation’s volcano monitoring agency), said the magma is one or two kilometers below the surface; an eruption could happen at any time. 

“The magma intrusion was about 7km long, up to 2km deep but only 1 metre wide,” she said. 

Evgenia Ilyinskaya, a volcanologist at the University of Leeds in the UK, said the swarm quakes are occurring near Reykjavik and the country’s main airport. She said critical infrastructure such as power plants are also nearby. 

The latest swarm of quakes has annoyed the heck out of residents who are constantly woken up in the middle of the night. 

“It’s quite annoying . . . to have your house swaying all the time,” Agustsdottir said of residents in the town of Grindavik that is the worst affected by the quakes.

The last major incident was the Eyjafjallajökull eruption in 2010, which caused a massive shutdown of the world’s airline industry as ash plumes circulated into the atmosphere. If an eruption is seen, this could be disastrous for the industry as it attempts to recover from the pandemic downturn. 

end

Michael Every on today’s important topics…

(Michael Every..)

Rabo: If Powell Does Nothing, We Will See Godzilla-Sized Shockwaves Across Markets Everywhere

 
MONDAY, MAR 15, 2021 – 9:30

By Michael Every of Rabobank

“Quadzilla is approaching Tokyo!”

[Cue epic music] “Up from the depths; 30 trillion high; Breathing fire; Its name in the sky — Quadzilla! Quadzilla! Quadzilla!” [Sudden switch to comedy music] “…and Godz-EU-ki.”

For those who grew up with 80’s cartoons, that intro may be familiar: for those who didn’t, here’s a link. It’s also timely today as US Secretary of State Blinken and Defence Secretary Austin approach Tokyo to discuss how the combined USD30 trillion economic behemoth of the US, Japan, India, and Australia can work together. The leaders of the four countries just held a virtual summit and even have a joint editorial in the Washington Post calling for an “open, secure, and prosperous” Indo-Pacific “free from coercion”.

They’ve already agreed to a joint Covid vaccine plan, where US vaccines will be produced in India, and Japan and Australia will help with the finances and logistics to distribute this throughout Asia. That’s powerful PR and diplomacy (even if India was already doing most of this alone, overlooked by Western media). Moreover, the Quad countries have pledged to ensure emissions reductions based on the Paris climate accord, as well as to cooperate on technology supply chains, 5G networks, and biotechnology. There are also defence agreements between most of them. It doesn’t take Austin going along for the ride to realize this is all about countering that other economic giant, China – which is as big and powerful as King Kong. So Quadzilla vs. Xi-ng Kong? That’s a movie already supposed to be released this year, coincidentally.

As US diplomacy moves into high gear, Pentagon war-gaming has repeatedly shown China would win any conflict with it over Taiwan, changing the entire face of Asia and the global economy. That news comes as Blinken, perhaps misspeaking, referred to Taiwan as “a country” – crashing across a key Chinese red line; the Australian newspaper carried an ominous warning: (“China arms for war, as Quad fights back: The reality of conflict in the Pacific is moving ever closer. Those are not hysterical words. They are the implicit message in the words of Chinese President Xi Jinping this week.”); and Bloomberg today has an op-ed quoting a Council for Foreign Relations report that “urges the imminence of the risk of conflict between China and the US over Taiwan”, concluding “the US needs urgently to dust off its options to meet a looming threat.” As they say in Latin: Si Vis Pacem, Para Bellum….so we see the Quad. It’s not NATO; and it’s not a free trade area; but it is likely to embrace elements of both moving forwards. Geopolitics will demand it even when local politics doesn’t.

The post-Brexit UK has indicated it might want in too. Relatedly, there looks to be a Tory party rebellion if the government tries to kill off an amendment banning trade deals with countries committing genocide; and the UK has declared China in breach of the Sino-British Joint Declaration over its treatment of Hong Kong – which has seen a strong Chinese response unlikely to lead to a new “Golden Age” of Sino-British economic relations.

Meanwhile, the post-Brexit Godz-EU-ki is also searching for a (non-comic relief) role:

  • The EU’s Indo-pacific strategy was supposed to be out in March but this has slipped to April;

  • The French want the EU to drop English and revive Latin. Could there be a better symbol of a bloc turning inwards, and away from soft power, than to revive a dead language most non-Europeans, who have already opted for English, will find impenetrable? Why not Esperanto? (And did you know William Shatner starred in the 1962 Esperanto movie “Incubus”?);

  • The details of the China-EU CAI investment deal, now revealed, show many of the Chinese sectors to be ‘opened up’ have huge strings attached, e.g., the EU remains open for Chinese FDI into its media, but China remains firmly closed. Indeed, there are specific bans on foreign programs being shown on TV in prime time without special permission;

  • Internally, Wolfgang Munchau reports Germany is to spend EU virus relief funds on pre-existing plans rather than introducing the reforms such spending was supposed to be predicated on. He strongly implies this will do wonders for internal unity when Berlin then expects others to act on said reforms; and

  • The EU is about to start a 15-month roadshow, The Conference on the Future of Europe, where townhall meetings will help decide what the bloc should be/do. As Politico notes: “Macron’s grand idea for a Europe-wide discussion, the sort of thing that EU leaders often resist as a navel-gazing exercise, instead turned into a navel-gazing exercise about a navel-gazing exercise.”

Meanwhile, it’s going to be a ‘monster’ week for central banks. Indeed, with the Fed, BOJ, and RBA all looking like the BOJ alone used to, the key focus is what Fed Chair Powell will say about the rise in long bond yields. Over the weekend, Treasury Secretary Yellen said that she wasn’t worried about inflation risks, which are “small”, and “manageable”: she again forgot she’s now in the wrong role in this particular movie. Treasury Secretaries are generally seen as small and manageable compared to central bank chiefs by global markets.

If Powell does nothing, we could perhaps be on the verge of a 2013-style Taper Tantrum. That would send Godzilla-sized shockwaves through markets everywhere, including Tokyo. (And I now think of 1970/80’s British TV ads where a Mock-zilla would eat famous global landmarks before deciding he preferred a certain candy “even chewier than a Barrow-in-Furness bus depot.”)   

Against that background, if the ECB switched to Esperanto to cry “Ne paniku! Ni havas ĉion sub kontrolo!”, it likely wouldn’t help that much. The same is true for the BOE in the Queen’s English, also meeting this week; and for the RBA; and of course emerging markets would be right at the front of the queue for impact. Even China would not be able to stand isolated from this development either, as we have seen before. So if when we stick to markets, sometimes it still comes back to Godzilla vs. King Kong…

…although it’s unclear if this is the US vs. China or the Fed vs. the markets. Which is the real King of the Monsters?

Of course, Powell could say something or do something: Operation Twist and Shout; or YCC. First of all, this would then show that there is a disconnect between the Treasury and the Fed, which is hardly ideal. Moreover, such steps would prompt a major market flattening, but of two different kinds (short end up and long end down; or just long end down). As I keep repeating here, YCC would also open the door for some seriously new epic adventures, like opening the mysterious giant gate behind which King Kong is found on his remote island.

It would also be a prerequisite for a true Quadzilla strategy of course.

[Cue epic music and flaming background]: “QUADZILLA!”  

7. OIL ISSUES

Oil tumbling on oversupply fears

(zerohedge)

end

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings MONDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1923 DOWN .0026 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS//CORONAVIRUS/PANDEMIC/TRUMP POSITIVE WITH VIRUS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /GREEN

USA/JAPAN YEN 109.19 UP 0.331 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.3915   UP   0.0047  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/

USA/CAN 1.2465 DOWN .0009 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  MONDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL BY 24 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1923 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE DOWN 33.13 PTS OR .96% 

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 94.04 PTS OR .33% 

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0,06%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 94.04 PTS OR .33% 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 33.13 PTS OR .96% 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.06% 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 49.14  POINTS OR 0.17%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1730.00

silver:$26.08-

Early MONDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 1.633% !!! UP 0 IN POINTS from FRIDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

The 30 yr bond yield 1.389 UP 1  IN BASIS POINTS from FRIDAY night.

USA dollar index early MONDAY morning: 91.85 UP 17 CENT(S) from  FRIDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers MONDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing  MONDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.18% DOWN 2 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.11.%  DOWN 0   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.30%//DOWN 4 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:0.61 DOWN 4 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 31 points higher than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.33% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 0.94% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR MONDAY

Closing currency crosses for MONDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1927  DOWN     .0021 or 21 basis points

USA/Japan: 109.13 UP .279 OR YEN DOWN 28  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3887 DOWN .0014 POUND DOWN 14  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 14 basis points to 1.2480

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The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed UP AT 6.5000    ON SHORE  (UP)..

 

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.5007  (YUAN up)..

 

TURKISH LIRA:  7.55  EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.11%

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 2 IN basis points from FRIDAY at 1.611 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.363 DOWN 3 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 91.82 UP 14  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for MONDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 11.77  0.17%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 40.97 POINTS OR .28%

Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 10.58 POINTS 0.11%

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 9.10 POINTS or 0.11%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 26.24 POINTS OR 0.11%

WTI Oil price; 65.20 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 68.83 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE RISES:    72.95  THE CROSS LOWER BY 0.31 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE HIGHER BY 31 BASIS PTS)

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.33 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OILPRICE 4:30 PM :  65.37//

BRENT :  68.91

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 1.610..DOWN 2 basis points…

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.363 DOWN 2 basis points..

EURO/USA 1.1933 ( DOWN 16   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:109.10 UP .250 (YEN DOWN 25 BASIS POINTS/..

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 91.78 UP 10 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.3900 DOWN 9  POINTS

the Turkish lira close: 7.533

the Russian rouble 72.88   UP 0.38 Roubles against the uSA dollar. (UP 38 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.2471 DOWN 6 BASIS pts

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.54%

The Dow closed UP 174.82 POINTS OR 0.53%

NASDAQ closed UP 145.25 POINTS OR 1.12%


VOLATILITY INDEX:  19.98 CLOSED DOWN .71

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 0.189%//libor dropping like a stone

USA trading today in Graph Form

Stimmies Send Stocks Soaring, Crypto Pumped’n’Dumped

 
MONDAY, MAR 15, 2021 – 16:01

Global helicopter drop engaged…

And we previously detailed why stonks and crypto will surge…

“I probably will take about half of it to invest into stocks,” said Iyana Halley, a 28-year-old actor who recently appeared in NBC’s television drama “This Is Us.” The Los Angeles resident remains on the fence about which equities to buy, but has been keeping a close watch on social media and seeking guidance from a friend she trusts.

“I want to see what will make the most sense, where I can get the most out of my money,” Halley said in an interview. “I’m still new to the stock-market world, so trying to figure stuff out.”

Traders are also hoping to figure it out as soon as possible, because the retail buying may come as soon as Monday once the stimulus checks received over the weekend are invested, giving the Nasdaq 100 Index new wind after it fell into a correction earlier this month amid a crash for some of the market’s most speculative names.

The checks “could offer a short-term ‘shot in the arm’ to a market that was otherwise looking run-down and vulnerable to a sell-off,” said Sam Stovall, the chief investment strategist at CFRA Research.

“Stimulus checks will almost certainly drive more retail buying,” said Eric Liu, co-founder of Vanda Research, a firm that tracks retail flows in the U.S. “The social media attention has remained strong.”

Tyler Hopkins, a 26-year-old computer technician for a school district an hour east of Los Angeles, spent about half of his two previous pandemic stimulus payments on stocks including GameStop Corp. and non-fungible tokens. He plans to buy more shares of retail favorites when the latest payment hits his bank account.

“I’ve been buying crypto and stocks for a while now, but the stimmys helped pay some bills and I put the rest of them into investing,” Hopkins said.

So while one can debate about the precision, one thing is clear: tens if not hundreds of billions from the latest Biden Bonanza will end up in the market. Yet for all the excitement that the stimulus payments are stirring up among younger traders looking to make a killing, some investment professionals have been wringing their hands. They worry that unsophisticated newbies buying stocks they heard about from memes or online forums like WallStreetBets could take already stretched valuations even higher.

“You could say it’s like gasoline on a fire,” said Kimberly Woody, a senior portfolio manager at GLOBALT Investments. It’s “participation from a lot of folks that really just don’t know what they’re doing.

With stimmies ready to fly out the door (and arriving electronically in Americans’ bank accounts into the weekend), cryptos were bid over the weekend. But, some mixed messages from India sparked a reversal, erasing the stimmy-gains.

Source: Bloomberg

China was ugly overnight led by big-techs…

Source: Bloomberg

Europe also saw a wave of selling after a panic-bid open…

Source: Bloomberg

But US Stocks reversed dramatically higher (again) at the European close. We have no idea why everything went panic-bid into the close…more stimmies arriving in bank accounts?

Dow and S&P at record closing highs with Dow up 7 days in a row.

Because nothing say buy stocks like the first major federal tax hike since 1993.

We note that hedgies appeared to be liquidating into the EU close (this is the most-held stocks by hedge funds), but that stopped as EU closed…

Source: Bloomberg

Small Caps played ping-pong all day long after tumbling during the EU session…

GME puked, bounced, then dumped into the close…

ARKK rallied back to fill Friday’s opening gap down, but could not hold gains…

Treasury yields were mixed but mostly lower on the day. NOTE that bonds were bid during the EU session…

Source: Bloomberg

5Y Breakevens hit 2.60%, highest since 2008…

 

Source: Bloomberg

The Dollar ended the day modestly higher…

Source: Bloomberg

As we already mentioned, crypto rollercoastered, but before dropping Bitcoin hit a new record high…

Source: Bloomberg

And Ethereum also reached a record high…

Source: Bloomberg

Silver surged on the day while crude was clobbered (for no news-based reason) while copper and gold trod water…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, we note that every so quietly, the market is pricing in an ever more hawkish Fed with the odds of a rate-hike by the end of 2022 now nearly 80% (from zero a few weeks ago)…

Source: Bloomberg

END

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 
 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA//Non farm payrolls

 
 

ii)Market data/USA

Brace For A Huge Retail Sales Miss: BofA Card Data Shows Collapse In February Spending

 
 
MONDAY, MAR 15, 2021 – 12:00

One month ago, ahead of the record-breaking February retail sales report which smashed expectations in a 5-sigma beat to consensus and saw a record jump in core retail sales…

… we cautioned readers that “A Blockbuster Retail Sales Report” was coming, citing BofA’s latest credit and debit card data which showed a surge In spending, and more importantly, found that actual spending was coming in about 5-10x hotter than consensus.

Well, what a difference a month makes, because one month after what BofA (correctly) warned would be a blockbuster beat, the bank now expects a crushing plunge in retail sales.

Looking at its latest aggregated monthly credit and debit card data, BAC finds a 2.3% M/M decline in core retail sales (ex-autos) in February, a drop which reflects three main factors:

  1. payback from the stimulus-induced gain in January;
  2. delayed tax refunds;
  3. Winter blizzard.

The first two factors led lower income spending to be particularly weak, declining 5.5% mom SA for the lowest income cohort.

Additionally, the catastrophic winter blizzard curtailed activity in Texas where retail sales ex-autos declined 7.5% mom SA.

On a sector level, BofA saw strength in spending at restaurants and weakness in goods. As such, the bank’s measure of “core control retail sales”, which nets out autos, gas, building materials and restaurants is down 3.0% mom SA, and means that consensus will be woefully wrong with the real data coming in far below expectations (appropriately enough, one week after blowing out consensus).

Needless to say, this suggests a very weak February Census Bureau report. But there is good news: the latest weekly data shows another sharp rebound at the start of March. As BofA notes, total card spending jumped 10.7% yoy for the week ending March 6th… 

… reflecting the pay period at the beginning of the month which jolted spending.

Furthermore, BofA’s chief economist Michelle Meyer says that she is seeing – and expects to continue to observe – “a decisive improvement in spending in March after the weakness at the end of February” which leads it to conclude that the drop is transitory given the strong data in the first week of March, the likely distribution of stimulus checks before month end and delayed tax refunds.

 

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

Here comes the next $2 trillion spending and it is on infrastructure.   If you think it is fixing roads, and bridges you are wrong…it is his new green deal

(zerohedge)

What’s Next: Here Comes Biden’s $2 Trillion Infrastructure Package

 
FRIDAY, MAR 12, 2021 – 17:20

Earlier today we published a recap of Biden’s $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan from Rabobank’s Philip Marey in which he observed that “the Democratic approach may have spoilt the mood for bipartisanship in the near term. Republicans claim that the Democrats were not serious about finding a bipartisan consensus.” In short, since not a single Republican voted for the American Rescue Plan and centrist Democratic senators have shown that they are willing to use their leverage in the 50-50 Senate. “this will increasingly anger progressives as their left wing agenda continues to be watered down by senators of their own political party. Therefore, if Biden does not proceed with caution, this could already have been the high point of his administration.

That would be the rational view. Alternatively, in a world where a flood of new debt is the only option left to perpetuating a failed status quo, one can also argue that record polarization notwithstanding, it will be in the best interest of both republicans and democrats to push the current spending spree to its absurd limits.

That’s where Biden’s upcoming boondoggle – his infrastructure plan – comes in, and as Marey concedes, “if you think that $1.9 trillion is a lot of money, this does not mean that Democrats are going to stop their spending spree here.”

Below is the Rabobank’s strategist preview of what could be the next big thing from the Biden admin: the $2 trillion infrastructure deal.

Congressional Progressive Caucus Chair Pramilla Jayapal tweeted that this (the American Rescue Plan) is a crucial down-payment on the $3-to-$4.5 trillion in stimulus needed to fully recover. Now that the American Rescue Plan has been signed into law by President Biden, he wants to proceed with a $2 trillion infrastructure package as part of the American Recovery Plan.

While there may be some common ground between Democrats and Republicans on infrastructure, for a large part they are thinking about different forms of infrastructure. While Republicans may be willing to spend federal money on highways, bridges and airports, Democrats are thinking of green infrastructure facilitating clean energy and electric vehicles. Last week Biden had a bipartisan meeting with members of the House of Representatives on infrastructure spending, but Republican Representative Sam Graves said that Republicans won’t support another Green New Deal disguising itself as a transportation bill. In fact, moderate Democrats may also be opposed to it.

Besides different preferences regarding the type of infrastructure to invest in, finding the funds to invest tends to be a challenge. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg may find it difficult to find the funding as did President Trump who promised a $1 billion infrastructure bill during his 2016 campaign. And President Trump was focused on the Republican definition of infrastructure, not the greener Democratic one. While financial markets are currently focusing on Biden’s spending spree, funding infrastructure investment may very well involve raising taxes.

This would certainly put off Republicans, so Democrats may go at it alone again. House Democrats are thinking about a second budget reconciliation bill before the August recess (note that the enhanced federal benefits now expire September 6). Although budget reconciliation is in practice restricted to one procedure per fiscal year, it is possible to do it twice in a calendar year. This was the case in 2017 when the Republicans used a first bill against the Affordable Care Act and the second bill for their tax cuts. The Democrats could take a similar approach in 2021. The American Rescue Plan refers to fiscal year 2021 (1 October 2020-30 September 2021), the American Recovery Plan could be passed through budget reconciliation for fiscal year 2022 (1 October 2021-30 September 2022). While this route would bypass the Republicans in Congress, moderate Democrats could still push back against the green agenda, the size of the package, and the tax hikes.

* * *

TL/DR: if traders were worried that inflation expectations are already soaring (and taking rate hike odds with them), just wait until it becomes common knowledge that Biden is hoping to more than double the funding needs for more government stimmies in just a few months…

END
And to pay for the above, Biden plans the biggest Federaltax hike since 1993.  This will fund his infrasture climate initiatives i.e. his green new deal.
(zerohedge)

Biden Plans Biggest Federal Tax Hike Since 1993 To Fund Infrastructure, Climate Initiatives

 
MONDAY, MAR 15, 2021 – 6:56

Households across the US rejoiced over the weekend as they received their first stimulus checks. And as BofA’s team of analysts parses exactly how millions of Americans will spend this money (will they buy washing machines and toasters? Or dump it into crypto/GME?), Bloomberg is out with a chilling report alerting Americans to the inevitable reality that President Biden is about to switch gears from spending to fundraising.

Of course, we use that term loosely: Despite the fact that Biden just shelled out another $1.85 trillion to finance a third round of stimulus checks (not to mention hundreds of billions in handouts to states and municipalities), his administration isn’t raising money to pay for that. Instead, they’re looking to finance a Democratic “New New Deal”.

Breaking with his former boss, Barack Obama (who signed legislation to make most of the Bush-era tax cuts permanent), Biden is embarking on what could be the biggest federal tax hike since 1993 (remember ‘no new taxes’?) to finance an infrastructure plan, Biden’s climate-change initiatives, health care and economic inequality.

Here’s more from Bloomberg.

Unlike the $1.9 trillion Covid-19 stimulus act, the next initiative, which is expected to be even bigger, won’t rely just on government debt as a funding source. While it’s been increasingly clear that tax hikes will be a component – Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has said at least part of the next bill will have to be paid for, and pointed to higher rates – key advisers are now making preparations for a package of measures.

With each tax break and credit having its own lobbying constituency to back it, tinkering with rates is fraught with political risk. That helps explain why Bill Clinton’s signature 1993 overhaul stands out from the modest modifications done since.

With all the talk about a federal ‘wealth tax’ (thanks, Elizabeth Warren) – progressives in certain parts of the country are already pushing for state wealth taxes in places like New York – the notion that taxes will move higher under Biden is hardly a surprise.

According to Bloomberg, the tax hikes would likely take effect next year, despite modest support for delaying them further among some Democrats. An independent analysis of the Biden campaign tax plan published by the Tax Policy Center (and cited by Bloomberg) estimated the new revenue streams would raise $2.1 trillion over a decade, though, given the current political climate (with West Virginia’s Joe Manchin still acting as a check on Democratic excess) the final total will likely be smaller. To be sure, Democrats will need to convince 10 Republicans to back the bill to circumvent the filibuster.

The overall program has yet to be unveiled. Nevertheless, analysts are penciling in between $2 trillion to $4 trillion. No date has yet been set for an announcement, though the White House said the plan would be introduced after the COVID relief bill was signed into law.

Bloomberg has a list of proposals that are reportedly under consideration, though they all likely won’t make it into the final bill. Notably the first two bullets would effectively unwind the two biggest components of the Trump tax cuts.

  • Raising the corporate tax rate to 28% from 21%
  • Paring back tax preferences for so-called pass-through businesses, such as limited-liability companies or partnerships
  • Raising the income tax rate on individuals earning more than $400,000
  • Expanding the estate tax’s reach
  • A higher capital-gains tax rate for individuals earning at least $1 million annually. (Biden on the campaign trail proposed applying income-tax rates, which would be higher)

The biggest question for Democrats is which parts of Biden’s post-Trump new deal actually need to be funded?

An outstanding question for Democrats is which parts of the package need to be funded, amid debate over whether infrastructure ultimately pays for itself – especially given current borrowing costs, which remain historically low. Efforts to make the expanded child tax credit in the pandemic-aid bill permanent – something with a price tag estimated at more than $1 trillion over a decade — could be harder to sell if pitched as entirely debt-financed.

Bloomberg’s economists believe the economic boom from Biden’s infrastructure plan could outweigh the economic hit to corporate revenue.

“The next major legislative initiative, infrastructure investment, could provide the sort of durable economic gains that not only support higher pay, but promote diffusion of those gains across demographic lines and political persuasions.”

Coming from pro-Democrat Bloomberg, that’s hardly a surprise.

Just days after the media proclaimed that corporations were cancelling planned layoffs thanks to the Biden stimulus (American Airlines is a particularly salient example), the prospect of a massive hike in corporate taxes threatens to slam this trend into reverse. But the most consequential factor for Americans in the wake of the retail trading boom isn’t the effect on the labor market, but the effect on the markets.

The Fed needs the wealth effect afforded by elevated asset prices to help drive economic growth in the aftermath of the pandemic. How will President Biden, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and the Fed’s Jerome Powell square that circle? And as some Democrats will inevitably seek to delay the tax hikes (lest they wreak havoc on the economy should they coincide with the Fed’s first tightening measures) it begs a question recently raised by DoubleLine’s Jeff Gundlach: if so much of these packages is simply debt financed, then monetized by the central bank, why bother with taxes at all?

end
PORTLAND/FRIDAY NIGHT
A mess!!

Portland Police Surround 100 Rioters After Group Smashes Windows Downtown

 
SATURDAY, MAR 13, 2021 – 11:50

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Police officers late Friday surrounded a group of about 100 and charged 13 with crimes after a protest devolved into a riot.

 

On left, some of the weapons seized from rioters in Portland, Ore., on March 12, 2021. On right, windows smashed by rioters in Portland, Ore., on March 12, 2021. (PPB)

Members of the crowd, wearing all black and chanting far-left slogans, broke windows at an apartment building and several other structures in the Pearl District neighborhood around 9 p.m. before they were surrounded.

The crowd ignored warnings to stop vandalizing buildings and disperse.

Officers blocked all exits from Northwest Marshall Street between Northwest 13th Avenue and Northwest 14th Avenue, the Portland Police Bureau said in an incident summary.

“The group was advised that they were being detained for investigation of crimes, they were not free to leave, and they should comply with officers’ lawful orders. Failure to comply may result in arrest or force being used against them to include, but not limited to, crowd control agents, impact weapons, or tear gas. Legal observers, press, and anyone who was medically fragile or anyone who needs immediate medical attention were invited to leave the enclosed area if they wished,” the bureau said.

“Those that were being detained were identified and photographed, as part of a criminal investigation, before being released. Some refused to comply and locked arms together in an effort to interfere with the investigation. Officers escorted them away and they were arrested.”

Additionally, a suspect in the vandalism that took place earlier in the evening was arrested and charged.

Among the items officers found inside the area, left behind by those who had been surrounded, was a crowbar, hammers, and a high-impact slingshot.

Thirteen people were charged with crimes including disorderly conduct, unlawful possession of a firearm, and resisting arrest.

More charges are possible.

 

Weapons recovered from an area rioters were held, in Portland, Ore., on March 12, 2021. (PPB)

Reporters and legal observers complained about the so-called kettling tactic and shared video footage showing them leaving or being forced to leave the perimeter police established. They were handed duct tape with their names on it to wear on their clothing. Some self-described reporters have participated in crimes during similar marches in the city.

I was just forcibly removed from the scene by several [officers],” Maranie Staab, a freelancer whose work has been published Reuters, wrote on Twitter. “I am a credentialed member of the press & made clear I wantd (sic) to stay & report. I was dragged out, labeled w/tape & photographed. This was a deliberate action to prevent accountability.”

Two federal judges previously dismissed or advised tossing civil suits challenging kettling tactics used by Portland officers in 2017.

The Friday riot took place one night after dozens attacked the U.S. courthouse in Portland, which was the focus of sustained assaults last year. The attack followed the removal of a strong fence that had been erected around the courthouse to help protect it against rioters.

Portland is also dealing with a spike in shootings, prompting Mayor Ted Wheeler this week to request a one-time $2 million spend to boost law enforcement and other agency efforts in combating the surge. Police have on some days been unable to promptly respond to 911 calls because so many officers are tied up with responding to riots.

Wheeler and his office didn’t respond to requests for comments about the riots. Robert King, a retired police officer who advises the mayor on policy, told the Pearl District Neighborhood Association during a board meeting on Thursday that the mayor is “very aware” and concerned about a riot that unfolded the week prior.

“We’re aware of the event that’s been advertised for tomorrow. There are a number of other events that we also are aware of, in say the coming week or two. So we are focusing on ensuring we have staff necessary to conduct those operations, communicate more and better with people in the community,” he said.

Chris Davis, the bureau’s deputy chief, told the board that “your neighborhood has been one of the ones targeted for an inordinate amount of criminal activity related to civil unrest in the city over the last year.”

Davis said police plan a response based on whatever intelligence they’re able to get ahead of time. “That can be very challenging, especially with some of these more organized groups that have engaged in criminal activity,” he said, adding that if a crowd swells to 100 or more, “it becomes a lot more resource-intensive for us to deal with.”

As the riots have continued, police have been making more of an effort to arrest people engaged in crimes during the protests and riots, although Multnomah District Attorney Mike Schmidt has opted to dismiss many of the lower-level charges.

Follow Zachary on Twitter: @zackstieber
 
 
end
 
 
Border crisis explodes as the Texas child migrant facility is already at 700% of capacity.
(zerohedge)

Border Crisis Explodes: Texas Child Migrant Facility At 700% Capacity As ICE Begs For Volunteers; White House Denies Lawyers Access

 
SATURDAY, MAR 13, 2021 – 17:00

A flood of child migrants filling Texas immigration facilities has turned into a full-blown crisis in the seven weeks since President Biden took office – a stark contrast to the Trump administration, which required that migrants wait in Mexico while the United States processed asylum requests, as opposed to Biden’s policy of letting everyone in and simply trusting migrants to show up for their hearings.

In recent days, over 3,500 unaccompanied minors have been held in Customs and Border Patrol (CBP) detention centers designed for adults – while Biden officials privately warned on Friday that the administration can’t handle the influx of children, according to the Daily Mail. So far this year, apprehensions are on track to eclipse the last decade of migrant detentions, even with a notable spike in 2019.

So far in March, more than 4,200 people are arriving into America across the border per day, which if sustained would rival the 132,856 apprehensions recorded in May 2019 – which was the most in 13 years.

The surge is leading to overcrowded conditions as the CBP centers – built for adult men – and the HHS shelters do not have space for the mounting numbers. –Daily Mail.

At one Border Patrol facility alone, hundreds of illegal child migrants have been crammed into packed conditions – with some sleeping on the floor because there aren’t just enough beds, they’re run out of mats, according to the Associated Press, citing nonprofit lawyers who interviewed over a dozen children at a Donna, Texas holding complex. Some of the children told attorneys that they’ve been there for a week or more in direct violation of the agency’s three-day limit for detaining child migrants. Over 130 children have been held in CBP facilities for more than 10 days, while many say they haven’t been allowed to phone their parents or other relatives who may be wondering where they are.

 

An aerial view of the Donna facility which is at 726 percent of its legal pandemic capacity (via the Daily Mail)

Despite concerns about the coronavirus, the children are kept so closely together that they can touch the person next to them, the lawyers said. Some have to wait five days or more to shower, and there isn’t always soap available, just shampoo, according to the lawyers.

President Joe Biden’s administration denied the lawyers access to the tent facility. During the administration of former President Donald Trump, attorney visits to Border Patrol stations revealed severe problems, including dozens of children held at one rural station without adequate food, water, or soap. –AP

“It is pretty surprising that the administration talks about the importance of transparency and then won’t let the attorneys for children set eyes on where they’re staying,” said attorney Leecia Welch of the National Center for Youth Law, adding “I find that very disappointing.”

According to the report, more children are waiting longer in Border Patrol ‘cages’ (and tents) because long-term facilities operated by the US Health and Human Services department have become quickly filled to capacity as hundreds of children are apprehended daily at far higher rates than they are being released to parents or sponsors. It takes an average of 37 days to release a child from HHS custody.

Meanwhile, ICE has been asking for volunteers to send to the US-Mexico border ‘as soon as this weekend’ to help out at the Donna, Texas facility – which is 729% over capacity, according to CBS News.

And it’s not just Texas:

“This situation mandates immediate action to protect the life and safety of federal personnel and the aliens in custody,” said ICE acting assist director for field operations, Michael Meade, in an email obtained by the Washington Post.

“Start and end dates are TBD, but could begin as soon as this weekend at location along the SWB [southwest border], most likely Texas,” he continued. “It is anticipated that the enforcement actions will continue to grow over the coming months.”

On March 2, the Donna complex was holding more than 1,800 people — 729% of its pandemic-era capacity, which is designed for 250 migrants, according to an internal CBP document reviewed by CBS News.

Most of the minors said they had only showered once while in U.S. custody, even though they’d been held for more than five days, according to Desai. Some said they had showered twice.

They all said they wanted to shower more and were told they couldn’t,” Desai said. -CBS News

Democrats, meanwhile, are scrambling to defend Biden’s handling of the migrant surge (which he created).

“It will be nothing like what we saw in the Trump administration of babies being snatched from the arms of their parents,” said House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) during a Thursday press briefing. “I trust the Biden administration’s policy to be based on humanitarian[ism] and love of children rather than political points or red meat for their Republican base.”

Rep. Pete Aguilar (D-CA) – vice chairman of the House Democratic Caucus, says party leaders are keeping a watchful eye on the administration to ensure guidelines – which are not being followed – are followed.

“There is a process for this. The Biden administration will move toward that process, and we will hold them accountable, just like we did the prior administration, to ensure that they’re following the law,” said Aguilar – before giving Biden a huge pass. “But this is a process that is rooted in compassion. And that’s the difference between the prior administration and this administration.”

House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) disagrees.

“Biden has created a crisis on the border that he won’t admit; 100,000 illegal immigrants were encountered just last month. Put that in perspective. That is larger than the hometown of Scranton, Pa., of our President Biden, and now it’s only growing month after month,” he said, adding that Biden “tears the wall down at the border, but he put one around the Capitol.”

end
White House refuses to releae how many illegal immigrants entering Texas have the COVID 19 virus
(zerohedge)

White House Won’t Reveal How Many Illegal Immigrants Entering Texas Have COVID-19: Gov. Abbott

 
MONDAY, MAR 15, 2021 – 12:20

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times,

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott said that the White House has refused to tell Texas officials how many illegal immigrants who have crossed the U.S.-Mexico border have tested positive for COVID-19.

When asked in a Fox News interview on Sunday about whether illegal immigrants are spreading the CCP (Chinese Communist Party) virus, which causes the COVID-19 disease, the Republican governor responded, “I have not seen any data about what the COVID rate is” while adding that agents have reported to his office that there are illegal immigrants coming across the border with the virus.

“We need the total number of migrants who have been apprehended at the border who have tested positive for COVID-19,” Abbott said, accusing the Biden administration of having “refused” and “failed to give to our state the total number of migrants who have COVID-19.

“We expect that data,” Abbott added.

In recent weeks, the number of border crossings and the number of illegal immigrants held in federal facilities has sharply increased, with Republicans like Abbott saying that it’s being driven by President Joe Biden’s relaxation in immigration policies.

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott speaks at a press conference at the Texas State Capitol in Austin, Texas, on May 18, 2020. (Lynda M. Gonzalez/The Dallas Morning News Pool)

The U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) said that it had 100,441 enforcement encounters at the southwest border, which is almost triple the enforcement actions from February 2020 when Border Patrol encountered about 36,687 individuals. It’s also significantly higher than the 76,545 encounters in February 2019, which was at the beginning of the last border crisis.

It comes as the Biden administration on Saturday announced that it has directed the Federal Emergency Management Agency to the U.S. southwest border in response to the arrival of “record numbers” of illegal immigrants, including unaccompanied minors.

“I am incredibly proud of the agents of the Border Patrol, who have been working around the clock in difficult circumstances to take care of children temporarily in our care. Yet, as I have said many times, a Border Patrol facility is no place for a child,” Homeland Security (DHS) Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas said in a statement.

“We are working in partnership with HHS to address the needs of unaccompanied children, which is made only more difficult given the protocols and restrictions required to protect the public health and the health of the children themselves. Our goal is to ensure that unaccompanied children are transferred to HHS as quickly as possible, consistent with legal requirements and in the best interest of the children,” Mayorkas added, referring to the Department of Health and Human Services.

And in early March, about 108 illegal immigrants released by Border Patrol into Texas over a several-week period tested positive for the CCP virus, officials said.

Border Patrol agents apprehend a busload of illegal immigrants in Penitas, Texas, on March 10, 2021. (Charlotte Cuthbertson/The Epoch Times)

The Epoch Times has reached out to the DHS, which oversees CBP, for comment.

END
David Stockman on the foolishness on Biden’s latest 1.9 trillion dollar largess:
(David Stockman)

Stockman: Free Lunches For All?

 
SUNDAY, MAR 14, 2021 – 17:20

Authored by David Stockman via InternationalMan.com,

In light of Sleepy Joe’s new $1.9 trillion package of free stuff, it’s time to get out our magnifying glasses. The purpose is to compute the size of the hole in America’s collective paycheck that purportedly requires such continued, beneficence from our not-so-rich Uncle Sam.

There is no reason in the world why the February (pre-Covid) level of wage and salary disbursements is not an appropriate benchmark for measuring the pocketbook hit from the Covid-lockdowns that have wreaked havoc on the US economy since March. This happened after Dr. Fauci convinced President Donald to pull the plug on MAGA and his own tenure in office, too. (Of course, 80-year-old Dr. Fauci is still there, preparing to bamboozle yet another “elected” president.)

Last February, The Donald was boasting that he had delivered the greatest economy the world had ever seen, and Wall Street agreed, pushing stocks high into the nosebleed section of history.

As it happened, the February run rate (annualized) of wage and salary disbursements was$9.659 trillion, which comes to about$805 billionper month. So we would suggest that if $805 billion in monthly wages was enough to justify celebration of the Greatest Economy Ever, then the shortfall from that benchmark is a solid measure of the hit to US worker earnings that has occurred since February.

The Covid wage and salary loss is as follows:

  • March: −$25b;

  • April: –$76b;

  • May: –$61b;

  • June: –$43b;

  • July: –$31b;

  • August: –$19b;

  • September: –$12b;

  • October: –$6b;

  • November: –$3b;

  • December est: $0b;

  • 10-month total: –$276b

The total of$276 billion in lost paychecks compares to $8.05 trillion in wages and salaries that would have been earned during that period at the February rate ($805 billion). Therefore, the cumulative shortfall through year-end amounted to just 3.4%.

More importantly, the $0-$6 billion monthly shortfall since September has been so small as to constitute a rounding error in the scheme of things, as suggested by the fact that American households spend far more—about $8 billion per month—on pet food and pet care alone.

Yet Sleepy Joe has teed up another $850 billion of direct aid to households, which, in the aggregate, are no longer suffering any material paycheck shortfall. And what is especially egregious about filling a nonexistent income hole in this manner is that 53% of this amount goes to “stimmy” checks and child tax credits, which are not means-tested except at the top of the income scale ($200,000 for a married couple):

Sleepy Joe’s $850 Billion of Direct Handouts to Households:

  • Stimmy checks and child tax credits: $450b;

  • Unemployment benefits: $200b;

  • Health insurance aid: $100b;

  • Rental assistance: $35b;

  • Child care aid: $40b

  • Safety net: $20b

Still, to paraphrase Walter Mondale’s famous campaign slogan from 1984: Another $850 billion for income replacement but “Where’s the Hole?”

Of course, there are other ways to measure the hit to the national economy from the Covid lockdown, which we will amplify below. But first, it would be well to summarize the “solution” that Washington’s fiscally incontinent politicians have thrown at the “problem” during the last 12 months—a “problem” that they have never bothered to quantify.

With the new Biden package, new spending authorized by the five major Covid relief measures can be summarized as follows (IN billions):

  • Families First act: $192b;

  • CARES act: $2,200b;

  • Paycheck Protection program: $733b;

  • Response and Relief Act: $935b;

  • Biden Jan. 14th plan: $1,900b;

  • Five-package total: $5,960b.

The Washington politicians are preparing to throw nigh onto $6 trillion at a $274 billion hole in the nation’s wage bucket. That’s a solution 22Xbigger than the putative problem!

The overwhelming share of the economic harm occurring since March is due to the misguided (and unconstitutional) lockdown policies of the government and the public hysteria fanned by Dr. Fauci, and not the disease itself. But if the state gets into the business of fully compensating the public for the endless harm wrought by its policies, insolvency will be guaranteed.

Why does Washington have the right to burden future taxpayers with permanent debt service payments in order to make whole a $276 billion loss of income and 3.4% inconvenience among taxpayers today?

The simple fact is that the overwhelming share of this $276 billion of wage losses has fallen on low-wage and part-time workers in the social–congregation sectors of the economy (bars, restaurants, gyms, hotels, cinemas, ballparks, etc.) that the Virus Patrol has shut down. The right solution is to send the Virus Patrol packing and let these unfairly penalized employees go back to work.

Even if you think that the total wage and salary loss above understates the economic damage caused by the lockdowns, the massive fiscal overkill by way of bailouts cannot be denied.

For instance, GDP is the most comprehensive measure of economic activity that we have (despite its flaws), but the loss of GDP after February has also been only about 3.6%. In fact, based on the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecast, we project that nominal GDP during Q4 will post at about $21.650 trillion, a figure only0.46%below the Greatest Economy Ever level of Q4 2019.

If we assume that Q4 2019 is a reasonable pre-Covid benchmark for the level of total economic activity in the USA, we get the following shortfall, including an estimate for Q4 based on the Atlanta Fed’s latest outlook.

Quarterly GDP Change From Q42019 Benchmark:

  • Q1 2020: -$47b;

  • Q2 2020: -$557b;

  • Q3 2020: -$144b;

  • Q4 2020E: -$25b;

  • 4-quarter total: -$775b

Even if you want to count everything, including losses from the $2.5 trillion of imputed activity in the GDP, the pending $6 trillion of Everything Bailouts is 7.7Xthe size of the problem!

By contrast, it is well worth looking at the other side of the coin: namely, the surge in transfer payments since last February stemming from a combination of the built-in safety net (principally unemployment insurance, food stamps and Medicaid) and disbursements of stimmy checks, enhanced Federal UI benefits as authorized by the Everything Bailouts.

At the pre-covid level in February, total government transfer payments (including state and local) were running at a $3.165 trillion annual rate or about $265 billionper month. As shown in the chart below, however, that monthly figure skyrocketed by 107% to $546 billion in the month of April alone.

And, no, that latter figure is not the annualized rate: In their infinite generosity, government programs pumped more than one-half trillion dollars into the household sector during April alone. That’s $18.2 billion per day!

Thereafter, the tsunami of transfer payments began to abate but was still running at a level of $400 billion monthly in July and $306 billion in November. Overall, the 10-month total of incremental transfer payments above the February level totaled $1.05 trillion.

You can’t make this up… Transfer payments to households during the past 10 months have exceeded the loss of household wages and salaries ($276 billion) by nearly four times.

So the question recurs: Why does Sleepy Joe think we need another $850 billion of transfer payments to households on top of the immense generosity already dispensed per the chart below?

Total Government Transfer Payments, Annualized

He’s doing it because he can—because the nation-wreckers in the Eccles Building are determined to purchase $120 billion of government debt and GSE securities per month for the indefinite future. As Fed Chair Powell rattled on recently, they are not even thinking about tapering this tsunami of fake money created from thin air by the Fed’s digital printing presses.

When it comes to the rampant fiscal incontinence in Washington DC enabled by the Fed, did the election outcome make any difference?

It did not. Sleepy Joe is about to give the once and former King of Debt a run for his money when it comes to the annals of fiscal infamy in America.

As we said, free lunches for one and all… except the debt is never going away, and future generations will surely rue the day.

*  *  *

 END

TEXAS

Griddy Energy collapses and files for Chapter 11 blaming Ercot

(zerohedge)

“ERCOT Destroyed Our Business” – Griddy Energy Files for Chapter 11

 
MONDAY, MAR 15, 2021 – 15:20

There was speculation on Sunday that Texas power retailer Griddy Energy LLC was planning to file bankruptcy, sources told WSJ. Sure enough, on Monday afternoon, Griddy announced that it filed a voluntary petition for relief under Chapter 11 of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code in Texas’s Southern District. 

Griddy sought bankruptcy protection after its customers (all of which were on variable-rate electricity plans) faced hefty electric bills during the deep freeze that swept the state last month. Some of those customers have been unable to pay thousands of dollars in bills. 

“Prior to Winter Storm Uri, Griddy was a thriving business with more than 29,000 customers who saved more than $17 million since 2017. The actions of ERCOT destroyed our business and caused financial harm to our customers,” said Griddy Chief Executive Officer Michael Fallquist.

Fallquist continued: “Our bankruptcy plan, if confirmed, provides relief for our former customers who were unable to pay their electricity bills resulting from the unprecedented prices. ERCOT made a bad situation worse for our customers by continuing to set prices at $9,000 per megawatt hour long after firm load shed instructions had stopped. Our customers paid 300 times more than the normal price for electricity during this period.”

Griddy did not profit from the jump in power prices as it only charges $9.99 per customer for access to wholesale electricity prices. The unprecedented market events last month of $9,000 per megawatt-hour resulted in some customers receiving bills upwards of $17,000. 

Potomac Economics, the Independent Market Monitor, wrote a letter to the Public Utility Commission of Texas that ERCOT’s grid failures resulted in $16 billion in additional costs.

“We built Griddy to improve an antiquated industry by giving our customers access to wholesale pricing, real-time data and the ability to help balance the grid while lowering their own bills. Our model worked in August 2019 and would have worked in February 2021, had the grid not failed and the regulators not intervened,” said Co-founder Gregory Craig.

Craig continued: “No retail energy provider or consumer should have to forecast and protect against such extreme and unforeseeable circumstances. We firmly believe in our model but, in order for it to be successful, the grid has to function properly, and prices have to be set by market forces. The actions of ERCOT caused our customers to suffer unnecessarily and caused irreparable harm to our business.” 

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton filed a lawsuit against Griddy on Mar. 1 for “violating the Texas Deceptive Trade Practices Act through false, misleading, and deceptive advertising and marketing practices.” Variable-rate electric plans are coming under scrutiny

Other power players on ERCOT’s grid have also filed for bankruptcy, including Brazos Electric Power Cooperative, the largest generation and transmission co-op in the Lone Star State. 

On Friday, ERCOT still had $3.1 billion in shortfalls from energy retailers who stilled owed money. ERCOT has been in talks with Goldman Sachs investment bankers about opening a potential credit facility to bailout energy players on the grid.

end

iv) Swamp commentaries

There is no longer free speech: Newt Gingrich is locked out of twitter for criticizing Biden’s immigration policy

(Levy/SaraCarter.com)

Newt Gingrich Locked Out Of Twitter For Criticizing Biden’s Immigration Policy

BY TYLER DURDEN
SATURDAY, MAR 13, 2021 – 19:30

Authored by Annaliese Levy via SaraACarter.com,

Former Speaker of the United States House of Representatives Newt Gingrich was locked out of his Twitter account for over a week after he published a tweet that criticized the Biden administration’s approach to the southern border and raised concern over immigrants crossing the border illegally who may be infected with COVID-19.

If there is a covid surge in Texas the fault will not be Governor [Greg] Abbott’s common sense reforms. The greatest threat of a covid surge comes from Biden’s untested illegal immigrants pouring across the border. We have no way of knowing how many of them are bringing covid with them,” Gingrich tweeted on March 3.

Twitter promptly sent Gingrich a message explaining that his account was locked for “violating rules against hateful conduct.”

In an opinion piece published in The Washington Times, Gingrich defended his tweet saying that he was reacting to a recent story that said federal officials had no way of testing people who are picked up by U.S. Customs and Border Patrol — or forcing them to quarantine.

In order to unlock his account, Gingrich was required to delete his tweet or go through an appeals process. Gingrich assumed he received this message by accident.

“Thinking this must have been an error somehow generated by the company’s algorithm, we sent Twitter a message pointing out that my tweet didn’t “promote violence against, threaten, or harass” anyone. We asked that my account be released,” Gingrich said.

Twitter reiterated to Gingrich that his tweet had broken their rules of conduct.

“I fail to see how drawing attention to the public health dangers of massive illegal immigration during a pandemic can be censored. So, to unlock my account, I deleted the tweet this morning,” Gingrich wrote.

“There was no reason to censor my tweet or lock my account,” Gingrich continued. “Nothing in the flagged tweet “promotes violence against, threatens, or harasses” anyone. It is simply pointing out the fact that those entering the country illegally are not tested for COVID-19 and could be a health risk.”

In an open letter to Twitter officials, Gingrich posed the following questions:

Do the Twitter censors acknowledge that we are in a pandemic?

Do the Twitter censors acknowledge that testing is a key tool in fighting the pandemic?

Do the Twitter censors acknowledge that, unlike people entering the country legally, people who come into the United States illegally are not tested for COVID-19?

Do the Twitter censors acknowledge that, unlike U.S. citizens, people who come into the country illegally are unlikely to voluntarily get tested because they are trying to keep a low profile?

If so, how exactly do they justify censoring discussion of the threat to public health posed by people coming into the U.S. illegally without being tested?

Gingrich noted that the vast majority of those being silenced online are conservatives.

“This entire experience has made it even more clear to me that Twitter is only interested in censoring conservatives,” Gingrich said.

“I hope Twitter will stop its aggressive and biased censorship, and return to the spirit and ideals of free speech which allowed it to prosper in the first place

end
 
Two clowns:  Fauci and Todd claim falsely that more pandemics are coming because of climate change
(Watson/SummitNews)

Watch: Fauci And Chuck Todd Say More Pandemics Coming Because Of Climate Change

 
MONDAY, MAR 15, 2021 – 8:50

Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,

Appearing on NBC News Sunday Dr Fauci and host Chuck Todd declared that more pandemics are on the way because of climate change and “the globalisation”.

The pair also agreed that a ‘global health security network’ is needed going forward and that anyone planning to go back to their pre-pandemic life is being too hasty.

“I know there’s a lot of folks who think that due to climate change and due to the globalization in general, it’s inevitable, we’re going to deal with more and more viruses like this,” Todd declared.

Fauci responded “Let’s take global to begin with. We have to have a better global health security network of interconnectivity, of communication, of transparency.”

“So that we are talking to each other all the time and know what’s going on. We also have to have a continued investment in the science,” he said, adding “remain global in our interactions. As I have said so many times, a global pandemic requires a global response.”

Fauci also urged that people “need to resist the urge to say, ‘Oh, everything is going great.’”

Fauci added “Once you declare victory, you know that metaphor that people say, ‘If you are going for a touchdown, don’t spike the ball on the 5-yard line. Wait until you get into the end zone.’”

“We’re not in the end zone yet, and that’s one of the issues, that when you plateau, there is always a risk of a surge. That’s exactly what the Europeans experienced,” Fauci continued.

The pair also took issue with President Trump supporters expressing skepticism over the coronavirus vaccine.

First, Todd complained that Trump did not appear in a PSA with other former presidents, despite the fact that Trump wasn’t asked to take part.

Fauci described the findings of a NPR, PBS and Marist poll“disturbing,” adding “How such a large proportion of a certain group of people would not want to make — would not want to get vaccinated merely because of political consideration. It makes absolutely no sense.”

“What is the problem here?” Fauci continued, adding “This is a vaccine that is going to be lifesaving for millions of people. How some groups would not want to do it for reasons that I just don’t understand. “

Fauci also said he couldn’t give a date as to when Americans might be able to schedule things like weddings:

end

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

After an early rally on Thursday night, ESMs went negative on this:

BOJ Leaves Bond-Purchase Amounts Unchanged at Regular Operation – BBG  20:11 ET

  • 400B yen of 1-3 year bonds vs. 400 B on March 5
  • 420B yen of 5-10 year bonds vs 420B on March 5
  • 30B yen of bonds maturing over 25 years vs 30B on Feb. 22

USMs declined 14/32 on the BoJ’s unchanged bond buying.  US bonds declined further during early European trading.  They tanked during early US trading, falling as much as 2 3/8 by the end of the first hour of NYSE trading due to the ugly February PPI.  The dollar soared on the higher US interest rates; precious metals declined sharply.  The US 5-year Breakeven Rate hit 2.5981%.

Tencent Faces Broad China Clampdown on Fintech, Deals
China’s top financial regulators see Tencent as the next target for increased supervision after the clamp down on Jack Ma’s Ant Group Co., according to people with knowledge of their thinking. Like Ant, Tencent will probably be required to establish a financial holding company to include its banking, insurance and payments services, said one of the people, seeking anonymity as the discussions are private…  https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tencent-faces-broad-china-clampdown-075403307.html

ESMs, and later US tech stocks and Fangs, tumbled on China’s clampdown on Tencent.

Prices paid to U.S. producers rose in February from a year ago by the most since October 2018, adding to evidence of mounting inflation in the production pipeline
The producer price index for final demand advanced 2.8% from February 2020… The PPI rose 0.5% from the prior month.  Excluding volatile food and energy components, the so-called core PPI increased 2.5% from a year earlier… Gasoline prices jumped 13.1% in February, accounting for about 40% of the month-over-month gain in the PPI, Labor said…  https://t.co/HUe6JynjrJ

Germany declares a Covid ‘third wave’ has begun; Italy set for Easter lockdown https://t.co/8tfpeFj97g

WaPo’s @chicoharlan: The third wave — (deep sigh, yes, a third) — is coming to Italy. By Monday, at least half the country will be under full-on lockdown. Nations that vaccinate fast enough will avoid this fate. But Europe’s dreadful vaccination campaign means countries here are still vulnerable.
   Over the last three weeks, the number of people in ICUs has shot up 40%. This is, at last, the variant effect. A true “red zone” shutdown should reverse the trend. But in an ideal world, vaccines would have reversed the trend, not life-halting, economy-wounding restrictions.
https://twitter.com/chicoharlan/status/1370378851377950729

Italy’s Draghi says will hike deficit further to support economy
“I will propose to parliament … a new increase in the deficit,” said Draghi, who took office a month ago at the head of a government of national unity. Rome’s most recent estimate was for a deficit-to-GDP ratio of 8.8% this year…   https://finance.yahoo.com/news/italys-draghi-says-hike-deficit-143015482.html

@zerohedge: Through Wednesday, 2021 has seen $353Bn in corporate issuance; the highest on record and well above the prior peak of $337Bn set through March 10 in 2017: BMO

Despite the spate of bad news globally, tumbling tech shares, more inflation evidence and cascading bonds, traders poured into US stocks that they thought would benefit from Biden’s Trillions, and because they are conditioned to buy dips and insouciantly dismiss all bad news.

Biden’s $4 trillion Build Back Better plan faces plenty of hurdles beyond Republicans
https://t.co/7pQoBie4xO

@CNBC: I’ve just never seen liquidity increase like this. Far greater than the financial crisis, far greater than WWI and WWII,” says Wharton’s Jeremy Siegel. “I want to be in real assets which are stocks–inflation is absolutely on the horizon.

History shows that stocks love inflation initially.  Eventually, stocks tumble when companies cannot absorb or pass on costs and/or the Fed hikes rates and/or bonds revolt.

GameStop Coasts toward 100% Weekly Gain, Defying Gravity Again [Not gravity, sanity]
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-12/gamestop-coasts-toward-100-weekly-gain-defying-gravity-again

ESMs traded violently in a wide range during late Asian trading, the afternoon in Europe and for most of NYSE trading.  At 15:10 ET, the usual suspects juiced ESMs for the Friday afternoon rally.

California will receive a total of $42.63 billion [from Biden’s Trillions]…
https://www.northcoastjournal.com/NewsBlog/archives/2021/03/10/huffman-votes-to-pass-historic-19-stimulus-bill

The NFT craze evinces how absurd and egregious speculation has become.  Does the Fed care?

Want to Buy an NFT? Here’s What to Know – Art lovers, basketball fans and collectors alike are pouring money into ‘nonfungible tokens,’ known as NFTs
    NFTs are digital assets that use the technology behind cryptocurrencies to create unique tokens, each with its own identification that isn’t replicable. These tokens serve as a digital deed for original editions of online art, music, and memes… The major risk of buying any cryptocurrency, including NFTs, is that value is largely based on speculation Only the buyer of the NFT owns the rights to the original asset, though other copies could still be floating around the internet for free
https://www.wsj.com/articles/want-to-buy-an-nft-heres-what-to-know-11615647601

I’m planning to retire early and rich thanks to NFTs – Anything has value if people are willing to pay for it
    The value of crypto art or NFTs has nothing whatsoever to do with any artistic merit. Nothing… These digital “Crypto Punk” images have no artistic merit and they just sold for $1.2 million apiece. The “Nyan Cart” sold for $600,000. It’s complete rubbish.  We’ve been living in the “post-ability” art world for over a hundred years—ever since surrealist Marcel Duchamp submitted a urinal to an art exhibition in New York in 1917.  It’s 50 years since the Tate Gallery in London paid the price of the average British man’s salary for a pile of bricks… It’s all about belief. If everyone just believes something is worth a lot of money, they can make it so Call this “Transcedental Speculation.”…
    You’ve heard of Modern Monetary Theory, which basically involves the government freely printing money and handing it out? This is Postmodern Monetary Theory. It’s even better.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/nfts-retire-early-retire-rich-11615393069

Market Manipulation Chatter Rises as Digital Art Scene Explodes
Suspicions of illicit trading have dogged crypto markets
    A digital artwork by Beeple set auction records Thursday when it sold at Christie’s for a mind-bending $69 million a GIF of a cat with a rainbow trail [went for $580,000, https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/22/business/nft-nba-top-shot-crypto.html]… A digital asset investor who goes by the handle Metakovan… announced that he is the buyer of the record-breaking $69.3 million digital artwork that sold Thursday…
    “I think this is going to be a billion-dollar piece,” Metakovan says… The work in question is a mosaic of 5,000 artworks made over the last 13 years by Mike Winkelmann, who goes by the artist name Beeple. Included in the mosaic are images of Abraham Lincoln spanking a baby Donald Trump, a giant rabbit eating children on a playground, and a muscled Tom Hanks beating up an anthropomorphic representation of the coronavirus…
    “Twenty-two million visitors tuned in for the final minutes of bidding,” says Alex Rotter, Christie’s chairman of 20th and 21st century art… one of Beeple’s pieces was bought for $67,000 last October, then flipped four months later for $6.6 million It’s not regulated, which is a good and a bad thing, so there are going to be opportunities where people make money and people lose money.”…
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-13/market-manipulation-chatter-rises-as-digital-art-scene-explodes

@darrenrovell: After raising more than $1.2 million selling 348 of his NFT’s last night, Rob Gronkowski [legendary & current NFL tight end] has sold the last one (a 1 of 1) on @opensea for…$433,701… This is what the winner owns + a chance to meet Gronk at a 2021 football game.

Speak not in the ears of a fool: for he will despise the wisdom of thy words.” – Proverbs 23:9

The infamous South Sea Bubble is tame compared to what is occurring now.  That bubble saw South Sea Company shares rise from “£100 in 1719 to more than £1,000 by August 1720.”
https://theconversation.com/300-years-since-the-south-sea-bubble-the-real-story-behind-the-iconic-financial-crash-143861

Shares in the Mississippi Company started at around 500 livres tournois (the French unit of account at the time) per share in January 1719. By December 1719, share prices had reached 10,000 livres, an increase of 1900 percent in just under a year… [GameStop went from 20 to 347 in two weeks, one day!]
http://www.mshistorynow.mdah.ms.gov/articles/70/john-law-and-the-mississippi-bubble-1718-1720

Bitcoin hit $61,000+ on Saturday.  On March 16, 2020, it was $4904.  On March 18, 2016, it was $405.

When ‘the everything bubble’ bursts, there will be Biblical proportions of wealth destruction that could generate global depression and massive social unrest that will produce various types of revolution.

PS – The Mississippi Bubble and the South Sea Bubble were the product of schemes by France and then England (aping France) to manage onerous sovereign debt

Did the Dutch Tuliplmania Really Exist? – Sought-after bulbs, of particular rarity and beauty did sell for six figures in today’s dollars; but there is actually little evidence that the mania was as widespread as has been reported.  Earl Thompson, an economist, has actually determined that because of this sort of production lag and the fact that growers entered into legal contracts to sell their tulips at a later date (similar to futures contracts), which were rigorously enforced by the Dutch government, prices rose for the simple fact that suppliers couldn’t satisfy all of the demand. Indeed, actual sales of new tulip bulbs remained at ordinary levels throughout the period. Thus, Thompson concluded that the “mania” was a rational response to demands embedded in contractual obligations…
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/dutch_tulip_bulb_market_bubble.asp

@charliebilello Wall Street Week… GameStop +92%, Koss +89%, Blockbuster +53%, AMC +39%, Kodak +29%, Virgin Galactic +27%, Blackberry +25%, Tesla +16%, Bitcoin, +11%, SPACs +10%,
Dow +4%, Nasdaq 100 QQQ: +2%, Volatility VIX: -16%

The Market’s Message to Global Central Banks: ‘You’re Wrong’
The bond market is telling central banks they’ve gone too far, says Reminiscent Capital’s Adams.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-12/the-market-s-message-to-global-central-banks-you-re-wrong

Brace Yourselves for The Most Dramatic Shift in The Standard of Living in All of U.S. History
From the start of the pandemic to today, M1 has gone from 4 trillion dollars to 18 trillion dollars
     Sadly, inflation is already starting to show up in a major way all throughout our economy.  Gas prices have been increasing at the pump for the past few weeks, reaching a national average of $2.77 a gallon as of Monday, which is 39 cents higher than the same time in 2020, according to AAA.  A lot of people are alarmed by this, but the Federal Reserve insists that this is completely normal.
    Meanwhile, the price of agricultural commodities has risen by 50 percent over the past year Lumber prices have increased more than 180 percent since last spring…
    The truth is that the U.S. economy is broken, and the only solution our leaders have is to print, borrow and spend even more money… If your income does not rise as fast as prices are going up, your standard of living will go down We are so close to the economic endgame, and the word “collapse” is not nearly strong enough to describe what is eventually going to happen to us.
http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/brace-yourselves-for-the-most-dramatic-shift-in-the-standard-of-living-in-all-of-u-s-history/

The Bubble of Everything: How a Debt-Driven Economy Creates More Frequent Crises
For decades, governments and central banks have always identified the problems of the economy as demand problems, even if it was not the case… most central planners see debt, oversupply, and bubbles as small collateral damages of a greater good: recover growth at any cost
   The virtuous cycle of credit turns into a vicious cycle of unproductive debt when we incentivize malinvestment and prevent technology substitution by implementing massive government stimuli and liquidity injections… governments that feel the need to “increase inflation”, something that no consumer has demanded ever anywhere, do so because they benefit as the first recipients of newly created money and the only sector that truly benefits from inflation…
    Governments and central banks create a crisis from a moderate and completely healthy slowdown by denying economic cycles and, even worse, presenting themselves as the ones that will revert them…
https://www.dlacalle.com/en/the-bubble-of-everything-how-a-debt-driven-economy-creates-more-frequent-crises/
Pfizer Covid vaccine cuts transmission of coronavirus, new real-world study shows
Their Covid-19 vaccine is 94 percent effective in preventing asymptomatic infections, meaning the vaccine could significantly reduce transmission…
https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/pfizer-covid-vaccine-cuts-transmission-coronavirus-new-real-world-study-n1260542

Ireland suspends Astrazeneca COVID-19 vaccine… citing reports from the Norwegian Medicines Agency regarding a cluster of serious blood clotting in some recipients there
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-ireland-idUSKBN2B6069

@MillerStream: Dr Fauci is on CNN saying 3 feet now might be an acceptable distance. It’s like comedy listening to this guy bc he just makes stuff up.

@AlexBerenson: I have now heard from two different people in the last 72 hours that New York and some neighboring states have NO child/adolescent inpatient psych beds available. None. At any price.

GOP Rep @hinsonashley: Speaker Pelosi’s response when asked if House Dems could overturn the IA02 election? “Of course.” The votes were counted, recounted, and certified for Congresswoman @millermeeks (Where is the media outrage and impeachment calls for trying to overturn an election?]

CNBC: Microsoft, Apple, and Google are interested in vaccine or immunization passports to help reopen the economy. You may have to prove your immunity to coronavirus before attending an event or entering a building at some point soon. [But IDs to vote is racist?] https://t.co/L143CSyvu0

WSJ Editorial Board: Democrats Move on Iowa’s Second District
The House takes the first step toward overturning an election.
    The party is on the precipice of creating a precedent, for the first time in a generation, that a partisan majority in Congress can disregard state officials and redo a close election count according to its own preferences. All their high-minded talk about respecting the voters seems to apply only when Donald Trump is challenging the results. This blatant Democratic power play would inspire more partisan bitterness—and further erode voter faith in elections.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/democrats-move-on-iowas-second-district-11615592111

States launch legal effort after Biden drops Trump rule on immigrants and welfare… that restricts immigrants deemed reliant on welfare from receiving green cards…
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/states-biden-trump-rule-public-charge-immigrants

Bloomberg: White-Collar Visa Workers Take 2/3 of New Tech Jobs Each Year
[If immigrants took 2/3 of media jobs or political offices, there would be wailing & legal remedies.]
https://www.breitbart.com/immigration/2021/03/12/bloomberg-opts-h1bs-take-two-three-new-tech-jobs-each-year/

College enrollment continues to decline as students increasingly are priced out https://t.co/jG9JwDlXGj

Five Willis Towers worth of office space is empty in downtown Chicago, and it’s going to get worse
The vacancy rate could climb to 18% by the end of next year, even if tenants begin to move into unused space following COVID-19 in a manner that emulates bounce-backs from previous economic downturns. If unused and under-construction space is slower to be gobbled up, vacancy could climb all the way to 20.3%, according to CBRE… Those projections don’t include a record 5.5 million square feet available for sublease in the downtown office market, which includes areas in and around the Loop and an area north of the Chicago River… With more than 138 million square feet total, Chicago has the nation’s second-largest downtown office market, trailing only Manhattan… [Chicago tranche CMBS are tumbling]
https://www.chicagotribune.com/columns/ryan-ori/ct-biz-downtown-chicago-record-office-space-availability-ryan-ori-20210312-r4zxqbfpurb6vjrolaoqrt2ikq-story.html

American Banker: Fed nears decision on continued easing of bank capital rule
The Fed and other agencies last spring allowed banks subject to the supplementary leverage ratio to exclude U.S. Treasury securities and deposits at Federal Reserve banks from the measure of capital relative to assets. The exemptions, set to expire March 31, were meant to free up resources to make loans and other purposes… the Fed had also estimated that the change would reduce the required amount of capital at bank holding companies by $76 billion.
    Senate Banking Committee Chair Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, urged Powell not to extend the relief for any banks that have continued to pay dividends to shareholders “rather than invest in the real economy.”…
    If regulators choose not to extend the relief, some worry that it could result in banks being forced to turn away deposits, reduce reserves and cut back on payouts to shareholders
https://www.americanbanker.com/news/fed-nears-decision-on-continued-easing-of-bank-capital-rule 

Expected economic data: March Empire Mfg 14;

After 50 days as president, Biden still hasn’t given a news conference. Critics and allies wonder why
The Washington Post’s editorial board, which endorsed Biden’s candidacy, on Sunday urged Biden to get on with it, too: “Americans have every right to expect that [the president] will regularly submit himself to substantial questioning… At this point in office, Trump had given five news conferences. Obama had given two, George W. Bush three and Clinton five… The news conference king? That would be “Silent Cal” Coolidge, who gave an average of six per month during his 5½ years in office.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/media/press-conferences-biden-administration/2021/03/12/332285e6-81e3-11eb-81db-b02f0398f49a_story.html

@ABCPolitics: Despite calls for national unity and bipartisanship, President Joe Biden and his top aides have declined to give the Trump administration credit on the nation’s COVID-19 vaccine rollout while relying heavily on a system established by their predecessors. [Man bites dog; ABC criticizes Biden!]

Biden throws stimulus bill Rose Garden party with no Republicans, no questions https://trib.al/czKDCHf

Cuomo and the Covid Death Count
Nursing-home fatalities are not well-reported, but which coronavirus-related deaths are
    New York, Pennsylvania, Michigan and New Jersey erred gravely by directing nursing homes to receive recovering Covid patients, but the bigger mistake was sending caregivers home rather than quarantining them between shifts. The workers—not the infected patients from hospitals—were the real (unwitting) channel for thousands of deaths thanks to Covid’s nasty capacity for asymptomatic spread.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/cuomo-and-the-covid-death-count-11615590254

New Cuomo Accuser Comes Forward – Former New York political reporter Jessica Bakeman became the seventh woman to accuse New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo of inappropriate behavior…
https://www.newsmax.com/politics/cuomo-accuser-bakeman-reporter/2021/03/12/id/1013625/

Cuomo accuser slams Biden and Harris, says scandal ‘calls into question their judgment and courage’ – Says White House is ‘supporting’ harassment by not condemning it
https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/cuomo-accuser-slams-biden-and-harris-says-scandal-calls-question-their-judgment-and

@NYMag: Andrew Cuomo’s governorship has been defined by cruel behavior that disguised chronic mismanagement. Why was that celebrated for so long? @rtraister reports https://nym.ag/2PYF8wT

NYT: The problem with Cuomo is no one has ever liked him,” said Richard Ravitch, a former Democratic lieutenant governor. “He’s not a nice person and he doesn’t have any real friends.”… As one Cuomo adviser put it, the governor has burned so many bridges that he has left himself with virtually no path forward… https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/13/us/politics/andrew-cuomo-scandals.html?smtyp=cur&smid=tw-nytimes

Bill Maher: While China’s Dominating the World, America Is Having a ‘Never-Ending Woke Competition’ – “Do you think China’s doing that, letting political correctness get in the way of nurturing their best and brightest?” Bill Maher asked. “Do you think Chinese colleges are offering courses in ‘The Philosophy of Star Trek, ‘The Sociology of Seinfeld,’ and ‘Surviving the Coming Zombie Apocalypse’?
https://www.breitbart.com/entertainment/2021/03/13/bill-maher-while-chinas-dominating-the-world-america-is-having-a-never-ending-woke-competition/

Ex- Navy Intel @JackPosobiec: How do you lose a country? Gradually then suddenly [See Rome, Athens, et al] The US military now supports one political ideology and opposes anyone who holds the other. Good thing nothing like this has ever happened before in history.

The state of the US military is a very, very serious issue, more salient than stocks or Bitcoin.  The state of the US military, despite the $700B that Trump procured, is very, very troubling.

War Games Showed US Would “Lose Fast” Against China If It Invaded Taiwan: US General
“The definitive answer if the U.S. military doesn’t change course is that we’re going to lose fast. In that case, an American president would likely be presented with almost a fait accompli.”…
  The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Navy is now larger than the U.S. Navy. By 2025, the PLA is projected to have three aircraft carriers in the Western Pacific to the United States’ one, 12 amphibious assault ships to the United States’ four, and 108 modern multi-warfare combatant ships to the United States’ 12, according to estimates by U.S. Indo-Pacific Command submitted to Congress…
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/war-games-showed-us-would-lose-fast-against-china-if-it-invaded-taiwan-us-general

China’s Xi Jinping Tells People’s Liberation Army to Get Ready for Combat
Fears that Beijing may be planning an invasion of democratic Taiwan in the next few years…
https://www.rfa.org/english/news/china/combat-03102021110542.html

US army halts gender neutral fitness test as women struggle [65% fail vs. 10% men fail]
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/us-army-halts-gender-neutral-fitness-test-as-women-struggle/CHFHJA5EYGHHQR4W73QZEHIHXY/

Samantha Nerove @SamNerove: As a ret. LTC, former paratrooper & woman who deployed on one of the first birds to Desert Storm & 18 yrs later to Iraq, Women serving in the military is simple. One set of standards for everyone.  Meet them or move on.

At Air Force One base, intruder given up by ‘mouse ears’ [Where is security & base leadership?]
An apparently aimless intruder went undetected for several hours and walked on and off an airplane on the flight line before his quirky headgear gave him away… An airman in the operations office at Joint Base Andrews, located in Maryland just outside Washington, saw the man on the flight line and became suspicious, partly because of the headgear, and called security… [China & Russia are euphoric!]  https://apnews.com/article/air-force-one-base-intruder-mouse-ears-88821e8a8f19b940ad0ddcaf7778825e

@JimHansonDC: Reasons the military attacked @TuckerCarlson: 1. Deflect from lack of focus on China he noted 2. 65% of Women failing a gender neutral PT test  SHOCKER: Women not as physically capable as men.  This is why there are men & women’s’ sports leagues

Tucker Carlson refuses to apologize to the Pentagon for saying recruiting more women is a ‘mockery to the US military’ and insists if ‘pregnant pilots were the best we would have an entire Air Force’ of them

  • On Monday Joe Biden said two female generals would lead combat commands…
  • The Fox anchor said that China’s increased navy capability was ‘more masculine’
  • On Thursday the Pentagon issued a rare press release condemning Carlson…

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9353005/F-Tucker-Carlson-Senator-Tammy-Duckworth-senior-Pentagon-officials-blast-Fox-News-host.html

Official Military Twitter Accounts Start Attacking Tucker Carlson in Shocking, Highly Politicized Display – The response to Tucker from the Department of Defense and these official military Twitter accounts shows that our armed forces are more focused on winning domestic PR battles than challenging Chinese aggression. Joe Biden hasn’t been in office for two months, and he’s already wrecking the military command structure with woke appointments and a total breakdown of decorum. It’s sad and pathetic, but it’s also really dangerous. There are real threats out there…
https://redstate.com/bonchie/2021/03/13/official-military-twitter-accounts-start-attacking-tucker-carlson-in-shocking-highly-politicized-display-n343061/

Biden Admin Faces Backlash After Military Attacks Tucker Carlson: ‘China’s Military Is Laughing’ – Attacks made by U.S. Military, under Biden’s leadership, against a U.S. citizen include:

  • The Department of Defense posting on its .gov website: “Press Secretary Smites Fox Host That Dissed Diversity in US Military.”
  • U.S. Marine Corps Master Gunnery Sergeant Scott H. Stalker attacking Carlson on the U.S. Space Command’s official government Twitter account, stating that Carlson’s criticisms were not valid because they were “made by an individual who has never served a day in his life.”
  • The U.S. Marines’ II MEF Information Group writing on its official government account: “Get right before you get left, boomer.”…

There was intense backlash online against the Biden administration after the U.S. Military used its resources to attack a private citizen who called into question the military’s readiness and combat effectiveness.  Human Events Managing Editor Ian Miles Cheong wrote: “China’s military is laughing at the US Marines for getting triggered by a TV host and ignoring their military buildup in the Pacific.”
    Bryan Dean Wright, a Democrat and former CIA officer, wrote: “With US Marines tweeting partisan views on Govt accounts — and keeping their jobs all the while — we’ve crossed a red line. The Republic will not stand long when our military, intelligence, & law enforcement become political tools. We are in desperate trouble.” … Retired Marine veteran Joey Jones wrote: “Please focus on China and not Tucker.”… Political commentator Drew Holden wrote: “The US military going out of their way to attack a journalist is like 7000% more fascist than anything Donald Trump ever dreamed of.”
    Political commentator Stephen Miller wrote: “If a member of the United States military high command under Trump released a video in uniform in his government office going after Jim Acosta or Don Lemon or Morning Joe, they would have to clear graphite off the roof of CNN. Here journalists are silent.”
    New York Post reporter Emma-Jo Morris wrote: “Remember when there was a media wide mass panic because someone in uniform walked with the president to make a statement at a church that was burned by rioters and that was alleged to be ‘political’?”
   Former Acting Director of National Intelligence Richard Grenell wrote: “If this had happened under Trump there would have already been a congressional hearing.”
https://www.dailywire.com/news/biden-admin-faces-backlash-after-military-attacks-tucker-carlson-chinas-military-is-laughing

Delta Special Forces Lt. Col Has A Message for Space Commander
Tucker Carlson is not in his position of influence and leadership because he is an expert on women in the military. Tucker is an expert on recognizing politics and wokeness as it rides roughshod over practical truths… During my service in the military, “medical professionals” did not drive command decisions. Warfighting is inherently an unhealthy business. He also flatly states that “civilian leadership” influenced the decision. Here is where the truth sits. Woke civilian leaders aka politicians are behind this decision not military commanders…When our military commanders don’t stand up for what they know is necessary to win wars, they willingly play only a supporting role to “medical professionals” and politicians…I take absolutely no pleasure in saying- maybe we should pay more attention on how to win our Nation’s wars instead of bowing to the woke left. I spent the better part of my adult life-fighting in wars that we never had the unity or commitment of both parties to actually win
https://djhjmedia.com/kari/delta-special-forces-lt-col-has-a-message-for-space-commander/

@johncardillo: The Joint Chiefs had a lot to say about Jan 6th, but are now dead silent on their subordinates using official accounts to target and threaten American citizens by name
    Imagine Gen. Patton reading these military tweets.

@disclosetv: Rep. @tedcruz requests a meeting with the Commandant of the U.S. Marines to put a stop to “political attacks intimidating Tucker Carlson & other civilians.”

@JackPosobiec: GOP consultant texts me, “Republican Veterans in office aren’t speaking out bc they’re terrified VoteVets and Lincoln Project will make videos of them. [Most GOPers are always scared.]

@tomselliott: Imagine if a version of the Capitol riot were happening … every night — for 8 months straight, but was somehow not being reported in the major media. That’s basically what’s been happening in Portland. [MSM blackout for political reasons] https://t.co/2ncpivdVbO

@charliekirk11: A federal building was lit on fire in Portland last night but you’re not hearing about any “insurrection” because the perpetrators weren’t wearing MAGA hats.

@Breaking911: Portland Mayor Ted Wheeler has requested that city officials approve $2 million in funding to bring back police patrols following a large spike in crime rates [The US idiocracy!]

Democrat & Ex-CIA operative @BryanDeanWright: Some 35% of very liberal voters recently told pollsters that violence was acceptable to achieve political goals… In the event facts still matter, here’s the polling that shows America’s greatest internal threat comes from the Left.
https://twitter.com/BryanDeanWright/status/1370935175283056647?s=02

@EmeraldRobinson: When Democrats take over the White House, they remove all the Republicans in the federal bureaucracy. When Republicans take over the White House, they keep all the Democrats in the federal bureaucracy.  That’s why Democrats control the federal government from top to bottom

Emails Show Zuckerberg-Funded Group Overruling Election Officials, Accessing Mail-In Ballots BEFORE Election.   https://thenationalpulse.com/news/revealed-emails-show-zuckerberg-funded-group-overruling-election-officials-accessing-mail-in-ballots-before-election/

Lapdog Corrupt Media Coverage of Biden’s Carteresque Speech Is Embarrassing
Biden’s speech without the media filter was unmemorable at best, and depressing at worst. With the media filter, however, it was the best speech you’ve ever heard.
    The speech was delivered off a Teleprompter by a man who wasn’t inspiring even when he had better command of his faculties decades ago. It was ungracious, going out of its way to refuse to acknowledge his predecessor’s Operation Warp Speed, the only pandemic response that has worked… The dark and depressing speech was reminiscent of Jimmy Carter’s “malaise” talks. He painted a horrible future with threatened future lockdowns if the people didn’t keep following his rules…
    The White House had asked reporters earlier in the day to spread their preferred messaging that the speech was uplifting, unifying, and hopeful. So they did… After the speech was over, they reiterated this propaganda talking point, even though the speech was not at all what was promised… “Biden cannot exist without the media filter.”…
https://thefederalist.com/2021/03/13/lapdog-corrupt-media-coverage-of-bidens-carteresque-speech-is-embarrassing/

The Sovietization of the American Press
The transformation from phony “objectivity” to open one-party orthodoxy hasn’t been an improvement
    Coverage of Biden increasingly resembles official press releases, often featuring embarrassing, Soviet-style contortions… We now know in advance that every Biden address will be reviewed as historic and exceptional… Where it gets weird is that the move to turn the bulk of the corporate press in the “moral clarity” era into a single party organ has come accompanied by purges of the politically unfit. In the seemingly endless parade of in-house investigations of journalists, paper after paper has borrowed from the Soviet style of printing judgments and self-denunciations, without explaining the actual crimes…
https://taibbi.substack.com/p/the-sovietization-of-the-american

Wall Street Journal Bans Reporters from Using the Term ‘Illegal Immigrant’ [Murdoch/globalist]
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2021/03/12/wall-street-journal-bans-reporters-from-using-the-term-illegal-immigrant/

Newt Gingrich locked out of Twitter for criticizing Biden immigration policy
https://t.co/zJoJPscZ2H

@thebradfordfile: They hate Tucker Carlson for the same reason they hate Trump:  He says the things everyone knows to be true but are too afraid to say.

NYC Spent Nearly Half a Million Dollars per Inmate in 2020, Report Says https://t.co/4TfVvWohY3

BIDEN’S AMERICA: Fourth of July Fireworks Have Been Banned at Mount Rushmore
The refusal to allow the fireworks on federal land is also a petty jab at South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem, a Republican who never caved to the pressure to lock down her state. [Dementia & petty?]
https://trendingpolitics.com/bidens-america-joe-outright-bans-4th-of-july-fireworks-at-mount-rushmore/

Chicago police officer shot in face while standing in police station parking lot [District of our youth]
https://thepostmillennial.com/breaking-chicago-police-officer-shot-in-face-parking-lot-police-station

Julian Edelman Invites Meyers Leonard to Dinner after the NBA Player Drops Anti-Semitic Slur
“I get the sense that you didn’t use that word out of hate, more out of ignorance…Hate is like a virus. Even accidentally, it can rapidly spread. I’m down in Miami fairly often. Let’s do a Shabbat dinner with some friends I’ll show you a fun time,” Edelman, who is Jewish, wrote in an open letter Wednesday…
   He’s doing a hell of a lot more than anyone trying to cancel Meyers. [This is how to be a real mensch.]
https://dailycaller.com/2021/03/10/julian-edelman-invites-meyers-leonard-to-dinner-after-the-nba-player-drops-anti-semitic-slur/

Well that is all for today

I will see you TUESDAY night.

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