MAR 23//RAID TODAY//GOLD CLOSED DOWN $12.65 TO $1726.25//SILVER DOWN ANOTHER 55 CENTS TO $25.16//GOLD TONNAGE AT THE COMEX SURPASSES 30 TONNES TO 30.08 TONNES//SILVER OZ STANDING; 56.5 MILLION OZ, THE SECOND HIGHEST STANDING IN SILVER HISTORY!//APRIL SILVER WILL HAVE 15 MILLION OZ STANDING WHICH IS HUGE//MAY WILL BE ASTRONOMICAL AS WELL//GOLD SHOULD ALSO HAVE A VERY STRONG APRIL DELIVERY MONTH//CORONAVIRUS UPDATE/VACCINE UPDATES//GERMANY GOING FOR ITS 3RD LOCKDOWN PRIOR TO EASTER WEEKEND//DANIEL LACALLE EXPLAINS THE PROBLEMS WITH YCC..AMUST READ!//TURKISH TURMOIL LAST NIGHT//OIL BREAKS 60 HEADING SOUTHBOUND//USA NEW DATA SPELLS TROUBLE FOR THE USA//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

GOLD:$1726.25 DOWN $12.65   The quote is London spot price

Silver:$25.16 DOWN  $0.55   London spot price ( cash market)

PLATINUM AND PALLADIUM PRICES BY KITCO

PLATINIUM  $1160.00 DOWN $17.00

PALLADIUM: 2518.00 DOWN $11.00. PER OZ

Closing access prices:  London spot//GOLD AND SILVER

i)Gold : $1727.80  LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

ii)SILVER:  $25.05//LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

James McShirley on the pricing of gold eagles/and silver eagles:

Even the TV pundits are now asking, without bothering to investigate, “what’s wrong with gold?” Yes indeed, what’s wrong with gold, other than a relentless daily cartel assault on PAPER gold. The physical coin premiums are widening out to spot. Gold Eagles are showing $200+ to spot, Silver Eagles $10+ to spot, if you can even find them. Supply and demand- fuggettaboutit. The more dollars printed the more valuable they become, and the more scarce gold and silver are the lower their prices go, so sayeth the Working Group.

Jim McShirley

Editorial of The New York Sun | February 1, 2021

end

Editorial of The New York Sun | February 1, 2021

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COMEX DATA

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

receiving today 0/0

MONTH TO DATE: 8,443

issued:  0

Goldman Sachs:  stopped:  0

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  MAR. CONTRACT:  0 NOTICE(S) FOR NIL OZ  (NIL tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  8443 NOTICES FOR 844300  OZ  (26.261 tonnes)

SILVER//MAR CONTRACT

236 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 1,180,000  OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month: 10,564 for 52,820,000  oz

BITCOIN MORNING QUOTE  $54,320,  DOWN $1680 

BITCOIN AFTERNOON QUOTE.:$54,899 down $1101    .

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GLD AND SLV INVENTORIES:

Gold

WITH GOLD DOWN $12.65  AND NO PHYSICAL TO BE FOUND ANYWHERE:

WITH ALL REFINER CLOSED//MEXICO ORDERING ALL MINES SHUT:   WHERE ARE THEY GETTING THE “PHYSICAL?STRANGE!! NO  CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//:

GLD: 1,051.78 TONNES OF GOLD//

Silver

WITH SILVER DOWN 55 CENTS TODAY: AND WITH NO SILVER AROUND

NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//

INVENTORY RESTS AT:

SLV: 585.846  MILLION OZ./

xxxxx

GLD closing price//NYSE 161.81 DOWN $1.19 OR  0.73%

XXXXXXXXXXXXX

SLV closing price NYSE 23.22  DOWN $0.72 OR 3.01%

We are now entering options expiry week , with the COMEX expiring this Thursday and the OTC/LBMA expiring on first day notice day March 31.  How they let these crooks engage in this criminal activity month after month is beyond me.

So bear with it.  Inflation will run rampant and that will propel gold and silver.

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Let us have a look at the data for today

THE COMEX OI IN SILVER FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 959 CONTRACTS FROM 161,387 DOWN TO 160,428, AND FURTHER FROM  THE NEW RECORD OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020. THE LOSS IN OI OCCURRED WITH OUR $0.50 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX  ON MONDAY. IT SEEMS THAT THE LOSS IN COMEX OI IS  DUE TO A SOME BANKER AND ALGO  SHORT COVERING !//HUGE REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//.. COUPLED AGAINST A SMALL EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. WE ALSO HAD SOME LONG LIQUIDATION  AND A GOOD INCREASE STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR MAR. WE HAD A STRONG NET LOSS IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 554 CONTRACTS  (SEE CALCULATIONS BELOW). 

WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A FAIR  NUMBER OF  COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE:  405,, AS WE HAD THE FOLLOWING ISSUANCE:  MARCH  0 MAY:  405 AND ZERO ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE 405 CONTRACTS. THE BANKERS ARE NOW BEING BITTEN BY THOSE SERIAL FORWARDS (EFP’S CIRCULATING IN LONDON)AS THEY ARE NOW BEING EXERCISED AND COMING BACK TO NEW YORK FOR REDEMPTION OF METAL.  THE COST TO SERVICE THESE SERIAL FORWARDS IS HIGH TO OUR BANKERS  BUT THEY HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO ISSUE A FEW OF THEM!

HISTORY OF SILVER OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR THE PAST 26 MONTHS.

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

7.32     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

2.630     MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOV.

20.970   MILLION OZ  FINAL STANDING IN DEC

5.075     MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JAN

1.480    MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN FEB

23.005  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAR

4.660  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR APRIL

45.220 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAY

2.205  MILLION OF FINAL STANDING FOR JUNE

86.470 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JULY.

6.475 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN AUGUST

55.400 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN SEPT

8.900 MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT.

3.950 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN NOV.

46.685 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR DEC.

6.890 MILLION FINAL STANDING FOR JAN 2021

12.020  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR FEB 2021

56.415 MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING FOR MARCH 2021

MONDAY, AGAIN OUR CROOKS USED COPIOUS PAPER TRYING TO LIQUIDATE SILVER’S PRICE …AND THEY WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.50) ).. AND, OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS WERE SOMEWHAT SUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE SOME SILVER LONGS AS WE HAD A NET LOSS OF 512 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.  THE TOTAL LOSS WAS DUE TO i)SOME BANKER/ALGO SHORT COVERING// STRONG REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//.    iii)  A SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS 2) A GOOD INCREASE IN STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER  // MAR, iv) STRONG COMEX OI LOSS AND iv) SOME LONG LIQUIDATION //.YOU CAN BET THE FARM THAT OUR BANKERS  ARE DESPERATE TO LIQUIDATE THEIR HUGE SHORT POSITIONS IN SILVER..

WE ARE BEGINNING TO WITNESS A LACK OF EXCHANGE FOR GOLD PHYSICALS UNDERWRITTEN DUE TO PREMIUMS STARTING TO REAPPEAR IN THE FUTURE PRICE OF GOLD VS LONDON SPOT. THE COST TO THE BANKERS IS JUST TOO GREAT TO ENGAGE IN THESE VEHICLES ONCE THIS OCCURS.

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

MAR

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY /FOR MONTH OF MAR:

15,051 CONTRACTS (FOR 17 TRADING DAY(S) TOTAL 15,051 CONTRACTS) OR 75.255 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 885 CONTRACTS OR 4.426 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF MAR: 75.255 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON.

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF MAR: 75.255. MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON.

JAN EFP ACCUMULATION FINAL:  113.735 MILLION OZ

FEB EFP ACCUMULATION FINAL:   208.18 MILLION OZ (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

MAR EFP ACCUMULATION SO FAR: A STRONG: 75.255 MILLION OZ  (DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//FEARS OF EFP CONTRACTS BEING EXERCISED FOR METAL)

RESULT: WE HAD A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 917, WITH OUR   $0.50 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ///MONDAY .…THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A SMALL SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 405 CONTRACTS WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS.

TODAY WE HAD A FAIR SIZED LOSS OF 512 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES (WITH OUR  $0.50 LOSS IN PRICE)//

THE TALLY//EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

i.e  405 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s)TOGETHER WITH A FAIR SIZED DECREASE OF 959 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND HAPPENED WITH OUR $0.50 LOSS IN PRICE OF SILVER/AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $25.71 //MONDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY. 

FOR THE NEW MAR.  DELIVERY MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 421 NOTICE(S) FOR  2,105,000, OZ OF SILVER.

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018. AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.70//TODAY’S RECORD OF 244,705 WAS SET WITH A PRICE OF: 18.91 (FEB 25/2020)

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

GOLD

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A TINY SIZED 5 CONTRACTS TO 480,002,AND FURTHER FROM OUR NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE  DECREASE IN COMEX OI OCCURRED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE  OF $3.90///COMEX GOLD TRADING/MONDAY.WE MUST HAVE HAD STRONG BANKER/ALGO SHORT COVERING ACCOMPANYING OUR GOOD SIZED EXCHANGE FOR  PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION.. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG  ADVANCE IN GOLD STANDING  AT THE COMEX TO 30.084 TONNES FOR MARCH..

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $3.90 WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD A VOLUME OF 0    4 -GC CONTRACTS//OPEN INTEREST  0//

WE HAD A GOOD SIZED GAIN  OF 4816 CONTRACTS (14.98 TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES..

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A GOOD SIZED 4821 CONTRACTS:

CONTRACT . FEB:0,  APRIL:  3275 AND JUNE:  1546  ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO//TOTAL: 4821.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 480,002. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EXCHANGE DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 4816 CONTRACTS: 5 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 4,821 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 4816 CONTRACTS OR 14.98 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A GOOD SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (4821) ACCOMPANYING THE TINY SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI  (5 OI): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES:  5,123 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1 ) SOME BANKER SHORT COVERING AS OUR BANKERS ARE RUNNING FROM DODGE AND CONSIDERABLE ALGO SHORT COVERING ,2.) STRONG ADVANCE STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR THE FRONT MAR. MONTH T0 30.084 TONNES3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION,  /// ;4) TINY COMEX OI GAIN AND 5) GOOD ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL  ...ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR LOSS IN GOLD PRICE TRADING MONDAY//$3.90!!

WE ARE BEGINNING TO WITNESS A LACK OF EXCHANGE FOR GOLD PHYSICALS UNDERWRITTEN DUE TO PREMIUMS STARTING TO REAPPEAR IN THE FUTURE PRICE OF GOLD VS LONDON SPOT. THE COST TO THE BANKERS IS JUST TOO GREAT TO ENGAGE IN THESE VEHICLES ONCE THIS OCCURS.

We have now switched to GOLD for our spreaders!!

FOR DETAILS ON THE SPREADING EXERCISE HERE IS A BRIEF OUTLINE:

SPREADING OPERATIONS/NOW SWITCHING TO SILVER  (WE SWITCH OVER TO GOLD ON NOV  1)

SPREADING OPERATION FOR OUR NEWCOMERS:

FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS:

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED IN GOLD  AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF APRIL.

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEW, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE SPREADERS AND THE CRIMINAL ELEMENT BEHIND IT:

 HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR GOLD..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR GOLD.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

.

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO GOLD AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAR. HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL FOR SILVER:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF MAR. BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN GOLD WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (APRIL), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2020 INCLUDING TODAY

MAR

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF MAR : 67,323, CONTRACTS OR 6,732,300 oz OR 209.40 TONNES (17 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 3960 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 17 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 209.40 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2020, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 209.40/3550 x 100% TONNES =5.89% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO DATE:
JANUARY: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)
FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..
MARCH:.194.40 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN//EQUAL TO JANUARY)

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 959 CONTRACTS FROM 161,387 DOWN TO 160,428 AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 3/4 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

THE STRONG SIZED LOSS IN OI SILVER COMEX WAS PRIMARILY DUE TO; 1) SOME BANKER SHORT COVERING//ALGO SHORT COVERING//REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING , 2) A SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (SEE BELOW), 3) A GOOD INCREASE IN  STANDING FOR SILVER  AT THE COMEX FOR MARCH., AND 4) SOME LONG LIQUIDATION,

EFP ISSUANCE 405 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 MARCH:  0 ; MAY: 405 AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 405 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI LOSS OF 959 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 405 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A GOOD SIZED LOSS OF 554 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 2.770 MILLION  OZ, OCCURRED WITH OUR $0.50 LOSS IN PRICE///

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL..THE EVIDENCE IS CLEAR: HUGE AMOUNTS OF PHYSICAL STANDING FOR BOTH  SILVER AND GOLD .

(report Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)TUESDAY MORNING/ MONDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 31.93 PTS OR .93%   //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 387.96 PTS OR 1.34%    /The Nikkei closed DOWN 178.23 POINTS OR 0.61%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.12%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN AT 6.5115 /Oil DOWN TO 58.82 dollars per barrel for WTI and 61.98 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED EXCEPT SPAIN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.5115. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.5093 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS //TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED//CORONAVIRUS/PANDEMIC/TRUMP TESTS POSITIVE FOR COVID 19  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL  BY TINY SIZED 5 CONTRACTS TO 480,002 MOVING FURTHER FROM  THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020).  AND THIS TINY COMEX DECREASE OCCURRED DESPITE OUR LOSS OF $3.90 IN GOLD PRICING MONDAY’S COMEX TRADING… WE ALSO HAD A GOOD EFP ISSUANCE (4,821 CONTRACTS). .  ON MONDAY’S SESSION WE NO DOUBT HAD AGAIN  1)  CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING//ALGO SHORT COVERING, CONTRACTS. WE HAVE  LATELY WITNESSED  EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL….. AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS.

(SEE BELOW)

WE  HAD 0    4 -GC VOLUME//open interest REMAINS AT   0

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAR..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A GOOD SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 4821 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  ; FEB// ’21  0 AND APRIL:  3275, JUNE:  1546 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 4821  CONTRACTS.

YOU WILL FIND THAT WHEN WE HAVE A GOOD PREMIUM IN THE FUTURES/SPOT, THEN THE NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS DECLINE IN NUMBERS.  THE COST IS JUST TOO MUCH FOR THEM TO ISSUE. TODAY THAT PREMIUM WAS SMALL AND THUS A LITTLE MORE THAN USUAL OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WERE ISSUED.

HOWEVER, WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION, THE OPPOSITE IS TRUE. EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. LONDON IS OUT OF METAL.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A  GOOD SIZED 4816  TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 4821 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE LOST A TINY SIZED  COMEX OI  OF 5 CONTRACTS.WE HAVE A HUGE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR MARCH  (30.084 TONNES) WHICH FOLLOWED FEB (113.424 TONNES)  WHICH FOLLOWED OUR STRONG LEVEL OF JAN 2021 GOLD . ((6.500 TONNES).  

THE BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT FELL $3.90)., AND WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING ANY LONGS  AS THE TOTAL LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES REGISTERED A GOOD 14.98 TONNES,  ACCOMPANYING OUR STRONG GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR MAR (29.928 TONNES)..I  STRONGLY BELIEVE THAT 0UR BANKER FRIENDS ARE GETTING QUITE NERVOUS.  THE SMALL GAIN IN COMEX OI IS DUE TO BANKER SHORT COVERING IN A BIG WAY.  THEY ARE LOOKING OVER THEIR SHOULDERS AND WITNESSING MASSIVE SILVER/GOLD SHORTAGES THAT CANNOT BE COVERED. THEY ARE TRYING TO FLEE IN HASTE “FROM DODGE”. 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES :: 4816 CONTRACTS OR 481,600 OZ OR  14.98  TONNES

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT COMMODITY FUTURES OPEN INTEREST SHOULD APPROXIMATE 3% OF TOTAL PRODUCTION.  IN GOLD THE WORLD PRODUCES AROUND 3500 TONNES PER YEAR BUT ONLY 2200 TONNES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE WEST (THUS EXCLUDING RUSSIA, CHINA ETC..WHO KEEP 100% OF THEIR PRODUCT.
THUS IN GOLD WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:  480,002 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS X 100 OZ PER CONTRACT = 48.00 MILLION OZ/32,150 OZ PER TONNE =  1493 TONNES

THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST REPRESENTS 1493/2200 OR 67.86% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF GOLD.

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 276,284 contracts// volume surprisingly poor with a raid  //

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  239.208 contracts//  volume:  poor/raid/ //most of our traders have left for London

MARCH 23 /2021

INITIAL STANDINGS FOR MAR COMEX GOLD
Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
81,985.06 oz
JPMorgan
2550 KILOBARS
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz    NIL
Deposit to the Customer Inventory, in oz
No of oz served (contracts) today
0  notice(s)
NIL OZ
(0.0000 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)
1229 contracts
(122,900oz)
3.822 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
8443 notices
844300 OZ
26.261 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

We had 0 deposit into the dealer

total deposit:  NIL   oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had 0 deposits into the customer account
TOTAL DEPOSITS: NIL
total withdrawals:
i) JPMorgan:?  81,985.05 oz  (2550 kilobars()

We had 1  kilobar transactions (1out of 2 transactions)

ADJUSTMENTS  2:  A)  dealer to customer

Manfra: 4861.642 oz

The front month of MAR registered a total of 1229 CONTRACTS FOR A GAIN OF 50 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 0 NOTICES FILED ON  MONDAY SO WE GAINED ANOTHER  50 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 5,000 OZ OR 0.1552 TONNES WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND IN THIS VERY ACTIVE MARCH DELIVERY MONTH.  THIS IS A RECORD FOR  QUEUE JUMPING IN THE MONTH AS OUR BANKERS ARE SHORT OF GOLD AND WILL DO ANYTHING TO JUMP AHEAD OF UNSUSPECTING LONGS TO OBTAIN METAL. MARCH IS GENERALLY A NON ACTIVE MONTH BUT THIS IS SURELY NOT THIS CASE THIS MONTH. SOMEBODY NEEDS AN URGENT SUPPLY OF PHYSICAL GOLD!!!!!!!

APRIL, THE NEXT FRONT MONTH, LOST A LESS THAN NORMAL 12,008 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 177,770 CONTRACTS. WE SHOULD HAVE AN EXTREMELY STRONG APRIL DELIVERY MONTH. WE HAVE 5 MORE READING DAYS BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE

MAY GAINED  7 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 467

JUNE GAINED 10,736 CONTRACTS UP TO 238,329

We had 0 notice(s) filed today for 0 oz

FOR THE MAR 2021 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and  0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 0  contract(s) of which 0  notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notices received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the MAR /2021. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (8443) x 7503 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  (MAR /1229 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today 0 x 100 oz per contract) equals 967,200 OZ OR 30.084 TONNESthe number of ounces standing in this  active month of MAR

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the MARCH contract month:

No of notices filed so far 8443 x 100 oz  + ( 1229 OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (0} x 100 oz which equals 967,200 oz standing OR 30.084 TONNES in this  NON active delivery month of MARCH. This is a HUGE/ATMOSPHERIC amount standing for GOLD IN MARCH, A GENERALLY POOR NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH.

WE GAINED 50 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL,5000 OZ WILL STAND ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND.

WE ARE WITNESSING A FULL FRONTAL ATTACK  ON THE COMEX ON ALL SIDES AND MEANS FOR ITS GOLD.!!!!

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:  

464,420.335, oz NOW PLEDGED  march 5/2021/HSBC  13.626 TONNES

339,772.427 PLEDGED  MANFRA 10.5687 TONNES

312,798.505 oz  JPM  9.72 TONNES

1,083,680.877 oz pledged June 12/2020 Brinks/33.706 TONNES

94,500.934 oz Pledged August 21/regular account 2.93 tonnes JPMORGAN

6,308.08 oz International Delaware:  .196 tonnes

192.906 oz Malca

total pledged gold:  2,301,674.057 oz                                     71.59 tonnes

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES…. WE HAVE 492.49 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS i.e. 30.08 tonnes

CALCULATION OF REGISTERED THAT CAN BE SETTLED UPON:

total registered or dealer  18,135,451.479 oz or 564.08 tonnes
total weight of pledged:  2,301,674.057 oz or 71.59 tonnes
thus:
registered gold that can be used to settle upon: 15,833,777.0  (492,49 tonnes) 
true registered gold  (total registered – pledged tonnes  15,833,777.0 (492.49 tonnes)
total eligible gold: 19,189,385.228 oz   (596.87 tonnes)
total registered, pledged  and eligible (customer) gold 37,324,836.707 oz or 1,160.95 tonnes (INCLUDES 4 GC GOLD)

total 4 GC gold:   126.34 tonnes

total gold net of 4 GC:  1034.61 tonnes

A total of 2.55 tonnes of gold leaves the COMEX today.

end

I have compiled  data with respect to registered (or dealer) gold taken on first day notice for each of the past 24 months

The data begins on first day notice for the May month taken on the last day of July 2018. and it continues to present day.

I then took, how many deliveries were recorded by the CME for each and every month.  I also included for reference the price of gold on first day notice.

The first graph is a logarithmic  graph and the second graph, linear.

You can see the huge explosion of registered gold at the comex along with deliveries.

THE DATA AND GRAPHS:
END

MARCH 23/2021

And now for the wild silver comex results

And now for the wild silver comex results

INITIAL STANDING FOR SILVER/MAR

MAR. SILVER COMEX CONTRACT MONTH//INITIAL STANDING

Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
1,822481.870 oz
CNT
Manfra
JPMorgan
Delaware
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
909,430.678 oz
CNT
Delaware
and as soon as this entered it left comex vaults.
No of oz served today (contracts)
421
CONTRACT(S)
(2,105,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
298 contracts
 1,490,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  10,985 contracts

54,925,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
We had 0 deposit into the dealer:

total dealer deposits:  nil        oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had 2 deposits into the customer account (ELIGIBLE ACCOUNT)

i) Into CNT   906,430.678 pz
ii) Into Delaware: 2933.693 oz

JPMorgan now has 189.39 million oz of  total silver inventory or 51.08% of all official comex silver. (189.39 million/370.757 million

total customer deposits today: 2,399,639.200   oz

we had 4 withdrawals:

i) out of CNT 619,045.880 oz
ii )Out of Delaware; 1915.140 oz
iii) Out of Manfra  479,944.800 oz
iv)out of JPMorgan 704,376.050 oz

total withdrawals 1,822,481.870   oz

thus whatever came in left in a hurry

We had 1 adjustments: i.  customer to dealer

Manfra: 593,559.870  oz

Total dealer(registered) silver: 127.974million oz

total registered and eligible silver:  370.757 million oz

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

MARCH saw a LOSS of 222 contracts to stand at 719. We had 236 contracts served on  MONDAY, so we GAINED 12 contracts or an additional 60,000 oz will  stand for delivery in this  active delivery month of March. These guys refused to  morph into London based forwards as there is no silver metal on their side of the pond so they will try their luck over here. 

April GAINED AN ASTONISHING  7 contracts to stand at 2983. (Many should be rolling to the next month).April numbers refuse to contract (roll).  They are standing resolute !!!!Thus it looks like we will have north of 15 million oz of silver standing in a very inactive month.

May LOST ONLY 827 contracts to stand at  128,530 contracts. May is the next active month and it seems the cavalry are showing up for physical silver as well. Thus we have April, a non active month remaining high in oi and May as both months refuses to contract.!

IT LOOKS LIKE WE HAVE OUR WHALE STANDING FOR SILVER METAL.  ERIC SPROTT’S FUND HAS NOTIFIED THE SEC THAT THEY ARE DOING A SHELF OFFERING OF $2 BILLION FOR SPROTT SILVER PHYSICAL FUNDS  (PSLV). IS ERIC TAKING ON THE CROOKS BY STANDING FOR METAL IN APRIL AND MAY?

The total number of notices filed today for MARCH 2021. contract month is represented by 421 contract(s) FOR 2,105,000 oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in MAR. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at  10,985 x 5,000 oz = 54,925,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAR (719) and the number of notices served upon today 421 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the MAR standings for silver for the MAR/2021 contract month: 10,985 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of MARCH(719- number of notices served upon today (421) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the Jan contract month .equals 56,415,000 oz. ..VERY STRONG FOR AN ACTIVE MAR MONTH.(numbers corrected from a small error yesterday)

We gained 12 contracts or an additional  60,000 oz will  stand for delivery as they refused to morph into London based forwards.

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME 61,515 CONTRACTS // volume extremely poor// volumes falling off a cliff// very surprisingly small in volume with a raid)

FOR YESTERDAY  66,539  ,CONFIRMED VOLUME// poor

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV  RISES TO +0.49% ((MAR 23/2021)

2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO –1.61% to NAV:   (MAR 23/2021 )

Note: /Sprott physical gold trust is back into POSITIVE/0.49%(MAR 223/2021)

(courtesy Sprott/GATA

3. SPROTT CEF .A   FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 18.68 TRADING 17.88//NEGATIVE 4.30

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/(this vehicle is a fraud as there is no gold behind them!)

MARCH 23/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.65 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1051.78 TONNES

MARCH 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.90 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.5 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1051.78 TONNES

MARCH 19/WITH GOLD UP $8.60 , NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1048.28 TONNES

MARCH 18/WITH GOLD UP $5.40 TODAY, A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.04 TONNES FROM THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1048.28 TONNES

MARCH 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.65 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.32 TONNES

MARCH 16/WITH GOLD UP $2.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.75 MILLION OZ FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.32 TONNES

MARCH 15/WITH GOLD UP $8.85 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.25 TONNES OF GOLD FORM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.07 TONNES

MARCH 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.25 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A REMOVAL OF 4.96 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1055.27 TONNES

MARCH 11/WITH GOLD UP $1.25 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.75 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1060.23 TONNES

MARCH 10/WITH GOLD UP $4.70 TODAY: ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.46 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1061.98 TONNES

MARCH 9/WITH GOLD UP $37.40 TODAY: ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 5.82 TONNES FORM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1063.44 TONNES

MARCH 8/WITH GOLD  DOWN $21.00  TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 9.04 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1069.26 TONNES

MARCH 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $15.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.08 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1078.30 TONNES

MARCH 4/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.60 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1082.38 TONNES

MARCH 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $17.70 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.62 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1087.12 TONNES

MARCH 2/WITH GOLD UP $9.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WHOPPING WITHDRAWAL OF 9.04 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1084.50 TONNES

MARCH 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.65 DOLLARS; A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.7 TONNES FROM THE GLD//.INVENTORY RESTS AT 1093.54 TONNES.

FEB 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $46.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.08 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1100.24 TONNES//

FEB 25/ WITH GOLD DOWN $20.65 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.08 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY REST AT 1106.36 TONNES

FEB 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.30 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.96 TONNES FROM THE GLD// RESTS AT 1110.44 TONNES

FEB 23/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.45 TODAY: A MONSTROUS CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 12.54 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1115.40 TONNES

FEB 22/WITH GOLD UP $30.00 TODAY: STRANGE!! A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.25 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1127.64 TONNES

FEB 19/WITH GOLD UP $2.00 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1132.89 TONNES

FEB 18//WITH GOLD UP $2.60 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.79 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1132.89 TONNES

FEB 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $27.35 TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.54 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1136.68 TONNES

FEB 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $23.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORYRESTS AT 1142.20 TONNES

FEB 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.38 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1142.20 TONNES

FEB 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $15.35 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/I: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1146.60 TONNES

FEB 10/WITH GOLD UP $5.30 TODAY: ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.09 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1148.34 TONNES

FEB 9/WITH GOLD UP $4.00 TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.08 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1152.43 TONNES.

FEB 8/WITH GOLD UP $20.80 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.33 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1156.51 TONNES

FEB 5/WITH GOLD UP $20.10 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1159.84 TONNES

FEB 4/WITH GOLD DOWN $42.05 TODAY: STRANGE: HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.34 TONNES ADDED INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1159.84 TONNES

FEB 3/WITH GOLD DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1157.50 TONNES

FEB 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $27.60 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD// A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.63 TONNES FROM THE GLD//.INVENTORY RESTS AT 1157.50 TONNES

FEB 1/WITH GOLD UP $12.45 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.5 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1160.13 TONNES

JAN 29/WITH GOLD UP $9.65 TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A WITHDRAWAL  OF 4.37 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1164.80 TONNES

JAN 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.90 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.71 TONNES LEAVES THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1169.17 TONNES

JANUARY 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.85 TODAY; A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF .87 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS 1172.38 TONNES

JAN 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.15 TODAY:NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1173.25 TONNES

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Inventory rests tonight at:

MARCH 23 / GLD INVENTORY 1051.78 tonnes

LAST;  1023 TRADING DAYS:   +117.97 TONNES HAVE BEEN ADDED THE GLD

LAST 923 TRADING DAYS// +  304.21TONNES  HAVE NOW  BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY

end

Now the SLV Inventory/(this vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them!)

MARCH 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 55 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS

MARCH 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 50 CENTS TODAY,TWO HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.486 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLVAT 3 PM AND ANOTHER 2.599 MILLION OZ WITHRAWWAL AT 5:20 ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 585.846 MILLION OZ/ (TOTAL SILVER LEAVING 4.085 MILLION OZ)

MARCH 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY REST AT 589.931 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 18/WITH SILVER UP 28 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; AT 3 PM: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.507 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 589.931 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 17/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 592.438 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 592.438 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 15/WITH SILVER UP 35 CENTS TODAY: NO  CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 592.438 MILLION OZ///

MARCH 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 592.438 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 11/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 592.438 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY; ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 928,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 592.438 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 9/WITH SILVER UP 91 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 593.366  MILLION OZ///

MARCH 8/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.25 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 593.366 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 31 CENTS TODAY: TWO HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.501 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV AT 3 PM AND ANOTHER 3.90 MILION OZ AT 5.20..: TOTAL LOSSS 10.4 MILLLLION OZ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 596.616 MILLION OZ

MARCH 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 76 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.486 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 609.017 MILLION OZ

MARCH 3/WITH SILVER DOWN 58 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.774 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 605.531 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 2//WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 609.305 MILLION OZ

MARCH 1.WITH SILVER UP 26 CENTS TODAY:A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.593 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 609.305 MILLION OZ.

FEB 26/WITH SILVER DOWN  $1.17 TODAY: TWO HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.857 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV AT 3 PM//AND ANOTHER 1.858 MILLION OZ AT 5.20 EST//INVENTORY RESTS AT 615.898 MILLION OZ//

FEB 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 619.613 MILLION OZ//

FEB 24/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORIES AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 619.613 MILLION OZ

FEB 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS TODAY: TWO ENTRIES I) HUGE CHANGE ISN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 127,000 OZ INTO THE SLV AND THEN A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 7.801 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 619.613 MILLION OZ

FEB 22/WITH SILVER UP 74 CENTS TODAY: 2 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.322 MILLION OZ AT 3 PM AND 6.873 MILLION OF AT 5 20 PM EST/INVENTORY RESTS AT 611.685 MILLION OZ/

FEB 19//WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 621.007 MILLION OZ//

FEB 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 22 CENTS TODAY : TWO HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.858 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV AN ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL 5.758 MILLION OZ// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 621.007 MILLION OZ//

FEB 17/WITH SILVER UP  1 CENT TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A DEPOSIT OF 83,000 OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 628.623 MILLION OZ//

FEB 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.044 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 628.530 MILLION OZ//

FEB 12/WITH SILVER UP 31 CENTS//A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.312 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 630.574 MILLION OZ.

FEB 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.858 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 634.986 MILLION OZ//

FEB 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 44 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 636.844 MILLION OZ//

FEB 9/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.19 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 17.882 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 636.844 MILLION OZ//

FEB 8/WITH SILVER UP $0.53 TODAY: A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 4.451 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 654.726 MILLION OZ//

FEB 5/WITH SILVER UP 70 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 659.278 MILLION OZ

FEB 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 0.54 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 10.079 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 659.278 MILLION OZ//

FEB 3/WITH SILVER UP 38 CENTS TODAY: A MIND NUMBING: 56.784 MILION OZ “DEPOSIT” INTO THE SLV at 3 pm AND A WITHDRAWAL OF 7.99 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV AT 5 PM//WITH THESE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 669.357 MILLION OZ//

FEB2//WITH SILVER DOWN  $2.81 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: AN UNBELEIVABLE DEPOSIT OF 18.627 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 620.563 MILLION OZ//

FEB 1/WITH SILVER UP $2.56 TODAY: A FAIRY TALE DEPOSIT OF 34.419 MILLION OZ INTO  SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 601.936 MILLION OZ//

JAN 29/WITH SILVER UP 58 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.366 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 567.517 MILLION OZ//

JAN 28/WITH SILVER UP 44 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.393 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 571.883 MILLION OZ/

JAN 27/ WITH SILVER DOWN 10CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.: A XXXWITHDRAWAL OF 3.022 MILLION OZ OF IMAGINARY SILVER// INVENTORY RESTS AT 573.277 MILLION OZ/

JAN 26/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 576.299 MILLION OZ///

JAN 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 2.044 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// INVENTORY RESTS AT 576.299 MILLION OZ./

XXXXXXXXXXXXXX

SLV INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT

MARCH 19/2021
585.846 MILLION OZ

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLD TRADING TODAY

Bill Blain…

At these new-normal, low trading volumes it’s ridiculously easy for the cartel to push paper metals around. This morning’s mini-crash began at precisely 9:00 am. (can you say pre– programmed algo?) In under 16 minutes it knocked 43 cents out of the silver price. In that time less than 7,100 contracts traded, with over 4,000 of those trading between 9:10 and 9:15. It’s absurd to think that the global price of silver was affected to the tune of nearly 2% by a criminal price discovery system deploying less than $120m of margin funds in such concentrated fashion. To the banksters $120m is barely a rounding error. To the Reddit group it’s a heartbreaker. In blatant algo fashion a second hit job was detonated one hour later at precisely 10:00 am.

The plunge in the metals, which was totally predictable, and predicted, came with NO corresponding news other than the usual wall-to-wall coverage of hyperinflationary worries. As we know hyperinflation is bad for gold, and good for the dollar. Maybe the ongoing collapse of Greensill Capital ala LTCM has something to do with the extra effort to suppress gold lately. All that Glitters is not Gold – Blain’s Morning Porridge https://morningporridge.com/blog/blains-morning- porridge/all-that-glitters-is-not-gold/

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

Dave from Denver…

Full Metal Jacket: Intensive Gold And Silver Price Suppression

“Switzerland in February sent gold to mainland China for the first time since September and shipments to India and Thailand rose to multi-year highs…Swiss customs data showed that in February Switzerland exported 56.5 tonnes of gold to India, 11.2 tonnes to Thailand, 2 tonnes to mainland China and 1 tonne to Hong Kong. That is biggest total to India for any month since April 2019, to Thailand since August 2018 and to Hong Kong since September. It is the first shipment of any gold at all to China since September.” – Reuters, “Asian gold demand rebounding as Swiss exports to India surge”

Physical metal shortages at the retail level on top of manic physical gold buying from Asia as well as intermittent backwardation in the paper gold and silver markets of London and New York underlie one of the most aggressive precious metals price suppression efforts by the western Central Banks that I have experienced in the last 20 years. The purpose is to keep the price of gold suppressed while the Fed and the Treasury – also known as the Powell-Yellen Clown Show – grease the wheels for another massive shot of money printing.

The U.S. monetary system has morphed into near full-blown Modern Monetary Theory. Congress has indefinitely removed the debt limit ceiling and the Fed has indicated a willingness to monetize as much of that debt as needed to keep bond yields in check. This is highly supportive of an eventual huge move much higher in the precious metals sector.

Wall Street Silver invited me on their engaging and entertaining podcast to discuss several topics related to precious metals and the current blatant price manipulation:

The next big move in financial assets will come from the mining stocks.  Mining stocks offer  potential wealth enhancement through exposure to the “optionality” upside of price gold and silver prices.  If you would like some ideas for investing in mining stocks, take a look at my  Mining Stock Journal.

***

end

iii) Other physical stories:

John Adams via yahoo.com 

12:52 AM (7 hours ago)

to ArcadiaEdMidasnh@aol.comRonanDunagunjohnChrisTedTorgnyAlasdairmaneco64patrickTFDavidAndyTomharveyorganJamesJohnWallStreetSilverOfficialAndrewArcticBillJohnNeilBarisBillHarveyDondouglasDannyEric
Dear Colleagues of the Silver Market,
With the frenzy generated by my initial tweet which generated more than 330,000 impressions, the CEO of Perth Mint has been forced to calm the Australian market via a local radio interview.
There are two amazing statements made by the CEO of Perth Mint Richard Hayes which caught my attention:
1) “The Silver Market is a very very Deep Market” (See the 5:02 mark) – I wonder if he is including COMEX derivative contracts in his measurement of the market?
2) At the 6 minute mark – Hayes said that the 10 day delivery period which is clearly laid out on the following webpage, only refers to the “quotation and arranging freight costs”! So now the Perth Mint is suggesting that no physical silver will be handed over within 10 days!
Rather it takes them 10 days to arrange a quote for freight!!!
The interview sounded like damage control via a friendly media establishment outlet.


yours faithfully,

John Adams

Principal Economic Analyst
Adams Economics
end

Your early TUESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED DOWN AT 6.5115 /

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.5093   /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 31.93 PTS OR .93%

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 387.96 PTS OR 1.34%

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 178.23 POINTS OR 0.61%

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL RED EXCEPET SPAIN/

USA dollar index UP TO 92.12/Euro FALLS TO 1.1879

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: RISES TO. +.08/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 108.54/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

3c Nikkei now JUST ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 58.83 and Brent: 61.95

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE CLOSED DOWN/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO -.34%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 0.63% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.32%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 0.97: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 0.87

3k Gold at $1740.00 silver at: 25.65   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 142/100 in roubles/dollar) 78.47

3m oil into the 58 dollar handle for WTI and 61 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 108.54 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9302 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1050 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to 0.34%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 1.648% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.363%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 7.89..

Futures Slide, Dollar Surges Ahead Of Powell-Yellen Doubleheader On Fresh Virus Fears

TUESDAY, MAR 23, 2021 – 07:57 AM

Lockdown fears are back, and so are concerns that disinflation may be making a return.

Global markets and US index futures slumped alongside shares in Europe, where a resurgence of virus cases and a planned lockdown in Germany cast doubt on the region’s economic recovery. Bond yields tumbled and the dollar jumped towards recent peaks on Tuesday with markets in a cautious mood ahead of Congressional testimony by Fed Chair Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen for clues on the pace of economic rebound.

At 715 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis were down 137 points, or 0.42%, S&P 500 E-minis were down 11.75 points, or 0.31% and Nasdaq 100 E-minis were down 7.00points, or 0.05%.

Energy giants Chevron, Occidental Petroleum and Exxon Mobil all dropped between 1.5% and 3.5% premarket as oil prices tumbled 3% on fears that new pandemic curbs and slow vaccine rollouts in Europe will slow a recovery in demand. Apple, Facebook and Microsoft eased between 0.2% and 0.7% from the previous session’s jump. Shares of beloved meme stock GameStop, which is transitioning itself into an ecommerce firm, dropped 0.6% ahead of its fourth-quarter results due after markets close. U.S.-listed shares of AstraZeneca Plc fell 2.5% after a U.S. health agency raised fresh doubt on the results of the drugmaker’s large-scale COVID-19 vaccine trials.

A mixed bag of new Western sanctions on China, coronavirus concerns and Turkish tumult after President Tayyip Erdogan’s shock sacking of the central bank chief at the weekend left investors awaiting a firmer signal.

Adding to market jitters were further worries over the efficacy of the AstraZeneca Plc vaccine developed with Oxford University after a U.S. health agency said the drugmaker may have included outdated information in its data. Also, Germany imposing a strict Easter lockdown is sapping sentiment with European futures near session lows. Restrictions are less severe than earlier this year, yet lockdowns beyond March raise the risk of delaying the 2Q rebound.

Europe’s Stoxx 600 Index fell 0.5% in early trading with automakers and energy shares down the most among sectors after Chancellor Angela Merkel put Germany into hard lockdown over Easter to try to calm another wave of infections. The move come amid signs that progress against the pandemic is stalling as global cases creep higher. European airlines and travel stocks declined again amid renewed concern on the summer holiday season and on the extension of restrictions to curb the Covid-19 pandemic. The Stoxx 600 Travel & Leisure Index is down 0.9% compared with a 0.4% drop for the broader equity gauge. Sliding oil also dragged down the Stoxx Europe 600 Energy Index which fell 0.8% extending its retreat to a seventh day as oil prices decline on concern near-term demand outlook. The Energy index is down 5% since March 12.

While a fresh lockdown in Europe’s largest economy is putting investors on the back foot, the stabilization in bond yields is providing some relief against fears that heavy U.S. spending could reignite inflation and force tighter central-bank policy. All eyes turn to Washington later today, where Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will speak on the pandemic response. “The path for equity from here is likely to remain choppy, in particular for less cyclical and long duration equity, as further steepening of the U.S. yield curve driven by real rates can further weigh on equity valuation,” Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists led by Alessio Rizzi wrote in a note.

Europe’s weakness echoed a downbeat mood earlier in Asia where MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan dropped 0.66%, hurt by a 0.95% fall in Chinese blue chips as a fresh wave of U.S. and European sanctions related to human rights abuses in Xinjiang hit. Stocks fell as investors sold financial companies after a drop in bond yields as well as other stocks expected to benefit from reflation and economic reopenings. Equities indexes in Tokyo, Hong Kong, Shanghai, Taipei, Soul and Sydney all traded lower. Banks including Japan’s MUFG and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial were among the biggest drags on the MSCI Asia Pacific Index as the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell for a second day. Automakers such as Toyota Motor and Geely Automobile also weighed on the measure. Benchmark indexes in Hong Kong and China led losses in the region as stricter regulations on the e-cigarette industry rippled through the markets. Traders also pointed to profit-taking on the carbon-neutral theme. Japan’s Topix swung to a loss of 0.9% from a gain of 0.6%, as investors were seen cashing in on recent advances in shares of banks and shipping firms. Main equity gauges in South Korea, Malaysia and Vietnam also ranked among notable decliners, while the Philippine benchmark posted Tuesday’s biggest gain.

Japanese stocks fell, with the Topix capping its steepest two-day drop in a month, as banks and shipping shares slid on profit-taking. Both sectors were among the biggest decliners on the Topix, which erased an earlier advance of as much as 0.6%. A gauge of shipping stocks has surged 41% this year, the best performance on the benchmark, while a measure of bank stocks has risen 32% amid expectations for an economic rebound. “The cheap valuation stocks that have been rising recently, including banks and marine transportation, are falling on profit-taking,” said Ryuta Otsuka, a strategist at Toyo Securities in Tokyo. “The shares went up a bit too much on expectations of an economic recovery.” Automakers continued to drop amid ongoing concerns over the supply of semiconductors. The Topix’s subgauge for the sector slid more than 3% Monday after a fire last week halted one of chipmaker Renesas Electronics Corp.’s largest plants, exacerbating a growing global shortage of automotive chips. “We believe the fire is likely to have a relatively heavy impact on Japanese automakers, which were relatively unaffected by chip shortages,” Arifumi Yoshida, a Citigroup analyst, wrote in a report. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average declined for a third day. The gauge has fallen more than 4% since March 19, when the Bank of Japan announced its decision to focus on buying exchange-traded funds linked to the Topix.

In FX, the dollar which has emerged as a global safe haven, surged as markets turned their attention to an update from Powell. In remarks prepared for delivery to a congressional hearing on Tuesday morning, the Fed chief said the U.S. economic recovery had progressed “more quickly than generally expected”. Powell is expected to reiterate his confidence in the economy’s growth while cautioning the recovery is far from complete. Yellen is likely to paint an optimistic picture of the economy before the U.S. lawmakers later in the day. Their congressional hearings begin at 12 p.m. ET.

“We kind of know where the Fed is at in terms of yields, inflation and accommodation. We will want to hear a lot more about what Yellen says on additional stimulus,” said Neil Wilson, chief market analyst for Markets.com.

“The FOMC last week laid out pretty clearly what the Fed’s view is with regard to rates… the next thing that markets will focus on is maybe getting some details from Yellen with regard to further infrastructure investment,” said Alex Wolf head of investment strategy for Asia at J.P. Morgan Private Bank, referring to a statement from the Federal Open Market Committee.

The New Zealand dollar hit a three-month low after the government introduced taxes to curb housing speculation, a move investors reckoned could allow the central bank to hold interest rates lower for longer with less risk of a property bubble. The kiwi slid as much as 1.6% against the dollar to its lowest since December as leveraged funds added short positions on the currency to trigger sell stops against the greenback, according to an Asia-based FX trader. Turmoil in Turkish assets continued in the wake of the central bank chief’s surprise dismissal over the weekend, with a drop in the main stock index triggering a circuit breaker.

In rates, 10-year U.S. Treasury notes last yielded 1.6382%, down 6 bps on the session and sliding from 1.732% late on Friday. The 10Y outperformed bunds and gilts by ~3bp; 2s10s is flatter by nearly 6bp on the day, 5s30s by ~1bp. The benchmark 10-year German government bond yield dropped 1.9 basis points to -0.3290% as Monday’s plunge in the Turkish lira and lingering concerns over coronavirus infection rates drove investors to safer assets.

The Treasury sells $60BN in 2-year notes at 1pm ET beginning a cycle that includes $61b 5-year and $62b 7-year Wednesday and Thursday; as a reminder a poorly bid 7-year auction last month unleashed a disorderly bond selloff. IG credit issuance slate includes Nomura 5Y, 7Y, 10Y and Rentenbank 5Y; Oracle raised $15bn in 6 parts Monday on an order book said to exceed $35BN.

Oil prices fell 4%, hit by concerns that new pandemic curbs and slow vaccine rollouts in Europe will hold back a recovery in demand along with fresh travel restrictions. Brent crude futures dropped by $2.59, or 4%, to $62.03 a barrel by 1108 GMT. WTI crude futures fell by $2.43, or 3.95%, to $59.11 a barrel.

“Global travel is still looking like it could be a while away,” said Matt Stanley, a fuel broker at Star Fuels in Dubai, adding that a second-half recovery in oil demand looked doubtful as lockdowns remain the order of the day.

Spot gold rose slightly to $1,740 per ounce by 1100 GMT, buoyed by easing U.S. Treasury yields, while bitcoin traded around $54,000.

Looking at the day ahead now, the main highlight will likely be the appearance of Fed Chair Powell and US Treasury Secretary Yellen before the House Financial Services Committee. Other central bank speakers Bullard (9am and 4:20pm), Bostic (10:10am), Barkin (11am), Brainard (1:30pm and 3:45pm) and Williams (2:45pm), as well as BoE Governor Bailey, Deputy Governor Cunliffe and Chief Economist Haldane, along with the ECB’s Villeroy. Data highlights from the US include February’s new home sales and March’s Richmond Fed manufacturing index. Meanwhile the UK will be reporting its employment data for January. Finally, today sees parliamentary elections taking place in Israel.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.4% to 3,915.25
  • SXXP Index down 0.4% to 422.63
  • MXAP down 0.7% to 206.47
  • MXAPJ down 0.7% to 684.82
  • Nikkei down 0.6% to 28,995.92
  • Topix down 0.9% to 1,971.48
  • Hang Seng Index down 1.3% to 28,497.38
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.9% to 3,411.51
  • Sensex up 0.4% to 49,980.89
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.1% to 6,745.40
  • Kospi down 1.0% to 3,004.74
  • Brent futures down 2.7% to $62.85/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.1% to $1,737.65
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.4% to 92.08
  • German 10Y yield down 2 bps to -0.33%
  • Euro down 0.4% to $1.1887

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • The economy seems to be gathering steam, though it is still far from fully recovering from the damage wrought by the pandemic, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said
  • Chancellor Angela Merkel and regional leaders agreed to put Germany into hard lockdown over Easter to try to defuse a “third wave” of Covid-19 infections fueled by faster-spreading mutations
  • AstraZeneca Plc may have released outdated information about its Covid-19 vaccine trial, giving an “incomplete” view of the efficacy of the shot, said the leading U.S. agency on infectious diseases
  • The European Union and Britain are pursuing talks to break their deadlock over AstraZeneca Plc’s coronavirus shots

Quick look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asian equity markets deteriorated throughout the session with the initial euphoria from the tech-led gains on Wall Street and the softer yield environment derailed as Chinese markets entered the fray following the latest sanctions announcements. ASX 200 (-0.1%) began positively amid strength in utilities and telecoms although gains were then wiped out as financials suffered due to softer yields and amid insurance claims from the ongoing flooding with warnings issued for Victoria state and east of the country. Nikkei 225 (-0.6%) was lifted at the open following the positive handover from US peers and with Goldman Sachs raising its 12-month target for the Nikkei 225 and TOPIX by 8.8% and 10.8% to 32,250 and 2,150, respectively, before the index eventually succumbed to the headwinds from currency inflows. Hang Seng (-1.3%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.9%) were the worst performers and dragged down their regional peers after the US, Canada, UK and EU announced an array of sanctions on China over Uyghur Muslims to which China responded with its own travel bans and stated that the measures were based on lies and disinformation, while Baidu’s Hong Kong debut was viewed as a damp squib in which the Co.’s shares reversed early minimal gains. Finally, 10yr JGBs traded indecisive but held on to Monday’s gains with price action contained amid an indecisive risk tone and softer demand at the enhanced liquidity auction for 2yr, 5yr, 10yr and 20yr JGBs, while New Zealand yields were hit overnight with the 10yr down over 6bps following the government announcement of a NZD 3.8bln fund to accelerate housing supply and curb the rising house prices.

Top Asian News

  • Central Bank of Erdogan Has Foreign Cash Exiting Turkey; Turkish Stocks Sink, Flipping Circuit Breakers for Second Day
  • China’s Stock Benchmark Falls Back to Key 5,000 Support Level
  • Singapore Joins Wall Street in Planning for Return to Office
  • Thai Billionaire Betting on Tourism Rebound Eyes Troubled Hotels

Stocks in Europe kicked off the session with relatively broad-based losses across the board, but have since lifted off worst levels (Euro Stoxx 50 -0.3%) despite a distinct lack of fresh news flow throughout the morning and following on from a mixed APAC lead. Major bourses see broad-based losses, with the Euro Zone initially experiencing volatility in the DAX (-0.2%) as Germany is facing more stringent COVID-related measures during the Easter period. However, the FTSE MIB (-0.8%) currently stands as the laggard amid its large exposure to cyclicals coupled with some potential jitters over the COVID situation in neighbouring countries. Elsewhere, the FTSE 100 (-0.4%) underperformed at the open amid currency dynamics and losses across oil majors, but the UK index now trades in-line with regional peers somewhat aided by pressure in GBP. US equity futures are also subdued but with the cyclically led RTY (-1.3%) the clear underperformer vs the NQ (-0.2%), YM (-0.4%), and ES (-0.4%). This anti-cyclical tone is also reflected across European sectors as Autos, Oil & Gas, Leisure and Basic resources reside at the bottom. Autos continue to be hit by the ongoing chip shortages, with the EZ lockdowns only adding to the glum tone. Oil & Gas has been hit by notable losses in the crude complex. Travel & Leisure is battling with the less rosy outlook for the sectors, with reports via UK press also suggests that the threat of penalties for holidaying to remain in place until end-June, although the UK Health Secretary remarked that timings do remain unchanged. Nonetheless, the EZ measures to stem the rising infection rates have hindered the sectoral recovery. The upside meanwhile sees defensive sectors, with Consumer Staples, Utilities and Telecoms in the green whilst Healthcare is pressured by Roche (-1.4%) as the group discontinued trials of their Huntington’s disease treatment candidate tominersen based on the results of a pre-planned review of the data. Further downbeat omens for the sector could also emanate from AstraZeneca (-1.2%) as US officials said the Co. might have included outdated information from its Covid-19 vaccine trial, providing an “incomplete” view of the data. In terms of individual movers, Volvo (-6.7%) resides as a notable laggard at the foot of the Stoxx 600 after its stated that the global semiconductor shortage will have a substantial impact on Q2 production and is expected to hurt earnings and cash flow.

Top European News

  • Carlyle Agrees to Buy $1 Billion U.K. Online Luxury Retailer END
  • Hungary’s Doctors Plead for Harsh Lockdown as Deaths Hit Records
  • Trustpilot Surges in Debut as London IPO Raises $655 Million
  • Denmark Says Lockdowns Can End Once All Over-50s Vaccinated

In FX, almost all change down under as the Kiwi unwinds all and more of its recovery gains through 1.0800 vs the Aussie to slide below 1.0850 and not far from 1.0900 in wake of the NZ Government launching a Nzd 3.8 bn housing fund to boost supply and curb a rise in prices with the ultimate aim of preserving economic stability. The moves takes some of the onus off RBNZ monetary policy following an amendment to the remit to incorporate property price inflation and aside from Nzd weakness it also resulted in a relatively steep retreat in bond yields. Nzd/Usd is now testing new y-t-d lows around 0.7025 ahead of trade data, while Aud/Usd is holding above its 2021 trough circa 0.7621 and 0.7650 in advance of PMIs.

  • DXY – The demise of its Antipodean rivals may have provided the Greenback with traction and a solid overnight platform to build on, but the subsequent rebound has been much more broad-based with only the Yen evading the Dollar’s clutches in G10 land and Lira putting up some resistance alongside the Yuan on the EM front. Moreover, the index gathered more momentum and bullish technical impetus once 92.000 was breached as counterparts lost psychological and key chart levels and the DXY is now just shy of 92.155 vs 91.753 at worst in the run up to a raft of Fed speakers, more US housing data and the start of this week’s auction schedule in the form of Usd 60 bn 2 year notes.
  • CHF/GBP – Little surprise to see Monday’s outperformer concede quite a lot of ground to the bouncing Buck, as the Franc retreats abruptly from another test of 0.9250+ terrain towards 0.9300 and to 1.1050 or so against the Euro from not far off 1.1000 at one stage. Similarly, Sterling has lost more momentum approaching 1.3900 and pulled back through the 50 DMA at 1.3830 before losing 1.3800+ status altogether and is now looking even more prone around the 1.3760 pivot point that prefaced Cable’s rally, while Eur/Gbp is back in the ascendency after a fleeting test of underlying bids/support around 0.8600, with the deriving little if anything from mixed UK labour and wage data.
  • CAD/EUR- Also recoiling vs their US peer, with the Loonie struggling to stay afloat of the 1.2600 handle against the backdrop of collapsing crude prices and awaiting comments from BoC’s Gravelle for any independent impetus, while the Euro is striving to stay within sight of 1.1900 and stop the rot before getting too close to the 200 DMA (1.1860).
  • JPY – As noted above, the Yen is bucking the overall trend and revisiting peaks beyond 108.50 vs the Greenback on a wave of pre-month end buying, but also benefiting from the fact that US Treasuries are rebounding and the curve re-flattening post-Tuesday’s official JGB close. However, decent option expiry interest at the 108.00 strike (2 BN) and just above may underpin Usd/Jpy.

In commodities, WTI and Brent front month futures have started the session on a markedly softer footing and have been selling off throughout the European morning. Currently, WTI trades below USD 59.00/bbl (vs high USD 61.35/bbl) and Brent trades mid USD 61.00/bbl (vs high USD 64.30/bbl), ahead of last week’s lows around USD 58.30/bbl and USD 61.50/bbl respectively. Additionally, the Brent May and April curve has flipped into contango for the first time since January. Moreover, the softer sentiment seen could largely be down to the slow vaccine rollouts and increasing COVID infection rates across large Eurozone economies. Consequently, it has led to new pandemic measures which can be in illustrated in Germany, Europe’s biggest oil consumer, who announced over Easter (April 1st to April 5th) people should stay at home and only food shops will be open. This also comes as France observes its respective lockdown whilst reports via UK press suggested that international travel could be affected, although the UK government later poured cold water on this. Elsewhere, Saudi Arabia is proposing a peace initiative to the Houthis to end the Yemen war, which would include a nationwide ceasefire. This could potentially be of interest as it may put the Saudi Aramco facility at ease and reduce the likelihood of it getting targeted in the interim. In terms of bank commentary, Barclays expects US crude oil output to grow by 600k BPD Q4 2020 to Q4 2021 and be priced at USD 62/bbl, whilst for 2022 output is seen growing 800k BPD and WTI trading at USD 68/bbl. For Brent, Barclays forecasts prices at 66/bbl and USD 71/bbl for 2021 and 2022 respectively. Today’s notable risk events include Fed’s Powell & weekly private inventory data, although market sentiment, lockdown/virus developments are likely to hold the narrative. Onto precious metals, spot gold has traded choppily and currently resides in marginally firmer territory whereas silver has seen pronounced downside all morning, which could be tied into the Dollar upside. XAU trades just above USD 1,740/oz (vs low USD 1,731/oz) and XAG is marginally above USD 25.50/oz (vs high USD 25.81/oz). Moving onto base metals, LME copper follows the general sentiment and is softer whilst trading just above USD 9,000/t at the time of writing. Overnight, the most-actively-traded Shanghai aluminium futures hit limit-down and its lowest level in a month amid reports China is contemplating over whether to sell aluminium state reserves to cool prices. Dalian coke futures fell for a third straight session potentially due to the weak demand, and in tangent with the steel mills in Shanxi and Hebei lowering their buying prices because of plentiful stocks.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: 4Q Current Account Balance, est. -$188b, prior – $178.5b
  • 10am: March Richmond Fed Index, est. 16, prior 14
  • 10am: Feb. New Home Sales MoM, est. -5.7%, prior 4.3%
  • 10am: Feb. New Home Sales, est. 870,000, prior 923,000

Central Banks

  • 9am: Fed’s Bullard Discusses Economy at LSE Event
  • 10:10am: Fed’s Bostic Discusses Economic Inclusivity
  • 11am: Fed’s Barkin Takes Part in Virtual Discussion
  • 12pm: Powell, Yellen Appear Before House Panel on CARES Act
  • 1:30pm: Fed’s Brainard Gives Speech on Climate Change
  • 2:45pm: Fed’s Williams Takes Part in Virtual Discussion
  • 3:45pm: Fed’s Brainard Discusses Economic Outlook
  • 4:20pm: Fed’s Bullard Takes Part in Discussion at NABE

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Markets drove it straight down the middle yesterday and got the week off to a strong start on the whole as lower sovereign bond yields proved supportive for global equities. Not even Turkey struggling deep in the rough was enough to derail the day. In fact, markets had generally erased the previous week’s moves surrounding the Fed meeting by yesterday’s close, with yields on 10yr US Treasuries down -2.6bps to 1.695%, which puts them only slightly above where they’d been prior to the Fed’s decision last week, and well below the intraday high of 1.753% reached last Thursday. Over in equity markets it was a similar story, with the S&P 500 up +0.70% to nearly reverse the previous week’s declines. Unsurprisingly given the fixed income moves, it was tech stocks that led the way, as the NASDAQ (+1.23%) and the NYSE FANG+ (+1.32%) both recorded strong performances. Predictably financials suffered at the other end of the spectrum with the S&P 500 Banks group shedding -2.27%. Energy stocks, the other cyclical darling of recent weeks, fell back -1.01% even as oil prices moderated following last week’s large loss.

Looking at the moves in more depth, the declines in Treasury yields were concentrated at the long end of the curve, with 30yr yields down -3.5bps, whereas 2yr yields were down just -0.2bps, though they were actually up for the majority of the day. Furthermore, it was lower real rates rather than inflation expectations that drove the moves, with 10yr real yields down -4.1bps and breakevens up +1.5bps. In fact, long-term inflation expectations recorded fresh milestones yesterday, with 30yr breakevens up another +1.9bps to 2.294%, reaching levels not seen since 2014.

Over in Europe there was also a move lower in yields, with those on 10yr bunds (-1.7bps), OATs (-1.3bps) and BTPs (-1.7bps) all falling slightly. That came as data showed the ECB’s net purchases under their Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) rose to €21.1bn in the week to March 19, which was the fastest pace since December, though we won’t get the gross number until today. It was broadly in line with what was expected. Equity markets were more subdued than their US counterparts however, with the STOXX 600 (+0.19%) and the DAX (+0.25%) both seeing modest rises. The big continental loser yesterday was Spain’s IBEX 35 (-1.76%), which was hurt by BBVA’s decline (-7.72%) as a result of its exposure to Turkey.

Markets in Asia are trading lower though with the Nikkei (-0.39%), Hang Seng (-1.34%), Shanghai Comp (-1.18%) and Kospi (-0.93%) all declining. The underperformance of Chinese bourses is likely due to the US, UK and Canada joining the EU to impose sanctions on the country over alleged human rights abuses on the Uyghurs in Xinjiang. Futures on the S&P 500 are down -0.19% while those on the Nasdaq are down a greater -0.35%. European ones are pointing to a weaker open too. Sovereign yields continue to soften with those on 10y USTs down -2.6bps to 1.671% driven by a decline in 10y real yields. Australia (-2.8bps) and New Zealand’s (-6.5bps) 10y yields are also trading softer. In Fx, the New Zealand dollar is -1.12% lower after the government took steps to arrest a bubble in housing such as removing tax incentives for property investors and unlocking more land to increase supply. Elsewhere WTI and Brent crude oil prices are also down -1% this morning.

In other news, US Treasury secretary Yellen emphasised in her prepared remarks that encouraging economic data shouldn’t distract from the progress still to be made while Fed Chair Powell reaffirmed that the Fed will continue to support the US economy for as long as it takes, in a speech for his accompanying appearance. These remarks will be part of their appearance before the House Financial Services Committee later today. So soon after the FOMC there are unlikely to be any major surprises. Meanwhile, Bloomberg has reported that the BoJ’s plan to stop buying the Nikkei 225 ETF won’t take effect until the start of next month as this will allow the central bank and trust banks it employs to make the necessary preparations for the adjusted buying program. Elsewhere, Bloomberg reported that Microsoft is in talks to acquire Discord Inc., a video-game chat community, for more than $10bn.

On the pandemic, the news came through just after we hit your inboxes yesterday that the AstraZeneca vaccine was 79% effective in a US trial at preventing symptomatic Covid cases, and 100% effective at preventing severe disease and hospitalisation. Furthermore, among the over-65s, the efficacy was 80%, and in a specific review of thrombotic events, no increased risk was found among the 21,583 participants who received at least one dose in the trial. AstraZeneca said that they planned to submit their data and analysis to the US FDA, in order to obtain an Emergency Use Authorization “in the coming weeks”. However, overnight the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases has said in a statement that the Data and Safety Monitoring Board has expressed concern that AstraZeneca may have included outdated information from the trial, which provided an incomplete view of efficacy data. The NIAID statement further added that the body urges AZ to work with DSMB to review efficacy of the data and ensure the most accurate, up-to-date data be made public as quickly as possible.

Staying on the pandemic, Germany extended its lockdown a further 4 weeks taking it to April 18, while nearby Austria cancelled its reopening plans, which were scheduled to start just after Easter. Overnight Bloomberg has reported that Germany will go into a hard lockdown for 5 days from April 1 (over Easter) to help reverse a “third wave” of Covid-19 infections. Under the hard lockdown plan, all stores will be shuttered for the five days, except for food stores which will open on April 3. Citizens will be encouraged to remain at home while private gatherings will be limited to one other household and a maximum of five people, and public meetings banned.

Meanwhile, the question of whether the EU would impose export controls on the AstraZeneca vaccine remained in the headlines, ahead of the EU leaders’ summit on Thursday and Friday. In the UK however, Prime Minister Johnson struck an emollient tone, saying that “I am reassured by talking to EU partners over the last few months that they don’t want to see blockades.” Nevertheless, it was confirmed that Johnson had spoken to President Macron and Chancellor Merkel on Sunday regarding the issue, which threaten to increase tensions further between the two sides if imposed, and could lead to retaliatory measures by the UK side. Notably however, there doesn’t seem to be unanimity within the EU on the merits of vaccine controls, with Irish Prime Minister Martin saying yesterday in an RTE interview that they’d be a “retrograde step” and “counterproductive”. There was some good news late last night as Bloomberg reported that EU leaders were in negotiations with the UK to share the output from a Dutch AZ plant. Meanwhile the US continues its vaccine programmes, with more states lowering eligibility ages in an effort to get the population vaccinated quickly in an efficient manner. NY state lowered the age to 50 and over, while Arizona lowered it all the way down to 16.

There wasn’t a great deal in the way of data yesterday, though existing home sales in the US fell to a 6-month low, down at an annualised rate of 6.22m in February (vs. 6.49m expected). In addition, the Chicago Fed’s national activity index fell to -1.09 (vs. 0.72 expected), marking the first decline since April last year.

To the day ahead now, and the main highlight will likely be the appearance of Fed Chair Powell and US Treasury Secretary Yellen before the House Financial Services Committee. Other central bank speakers include the Fed’s Bullard, Bostic, Barkin, Brainard and Williams, as well as BoE Governor Bailey, Deputy Governor Cunliffe and Chief Economist Haldane, along with the ECB’s Villeroy. Data highlights from the US include February’s new home sales and March’s Richmond Fed manufacturing index. Meanwhile the UK will be reporting its employment data for January. Finally, today sees parliamentary elections taking place in Israel.

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)TUESDAY MORNING/ MONDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 31.93 PTS OR .93%   //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 387.96 PTS OR 1.34%    /The Nikkei closed DOWN 178.23 POINTS OR 0.61%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.12%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN AT 6.5115 /Oil DOWN TO 58.82 dollars per barrel for WTI and 61.98 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED EXCEPT SPAIN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.5115. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.5093 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS //TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED//CORONAVIRUS/PANDEMIC/TRUMP TESTS POSITIVE FOR COVID 19  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

The burning down of a semi conductor plant will have a major impact of Japan’s auto industry and thus their exports.

(zerohedge)

Japanese Semi Plant Fire To Have “Major Impact” On Already-Bottlenecked Auto Industry

MONDAY, MAR 22, 2021 – 08:00 PM

Semiconductor supply shortages continue to sting the automotive industry globally.

On Monday morning a fire at a semiconductor factory in Japan had the entire industry jumpy and was sparking “further concerns over chip supply shortages for the industry,” according to Bloomberg. The fire took place at a clean room at Japanese company Renesas, a major provider of auto chips.

Renesas’ CEO, Hidetoshi Shibata, said that “the incident is likely to have a major impact on the car industry”.

Two-thirds of the affected production lines were making automotive chips, according to the Wall Street Journal. The Journal also wrote that the effect could have wide-ranging reach:

Mariko Semetko, a credit analyst at Moody’s Japan, said the fire was likely to damp the recovery of global auto production this year, while auto makers said they were still assessing the impact.

Mr. Shibata said the company was trying to make up for the lost production at other plants but didn’t know whether that was possible. The company estimated the revenue losses at the equivalent of $160 million a month.

Names like Toyota, Volkswagen and Continental will be on watch heading into the beginning of the week, as they are all customers of Renesas. Bloomberg also reports Monday morning that names like BMW, Daimler and Stellantis, in addition to auto-exposed chipmakers like Infineon, STMicro and Melexis, could all be negatively affected by the fire.

We have written about the shortage has wreaked chaos on the auto industry so far in 2021.

Recall, just days ago we noted that Samsung was the latest to join the chorus of companies stating they were being negatively affected by the shortage. The company said the current crisis is “very serious” and that it “poses a slight problem” for the electronics company heading into the second quarter. The company continues to try and address supply issues, Reuters reported that CEO and mobile chief Koh Dong-jin said at Samsung’s recent annual general meeting.

In fact, there are also rumors that Samsung is considering skipping its usual Galaxy Note launch this year due to the ongoing chip shortage, according to 9 to 5 Google. Koh is quoted as saying:

Note series is positioned as a high-end model in our business portfolio. It could be a burden to unveil two flagship models in a year so it might be difficult to release Note model in 2H. The timing of Note model launch can be changed but we seek to release a Note model next year.

Recently, we also wrote about how difficult it was becoming for U.S. companies to export chipmaking hardware to China due to trade restrictions. We also documented weeks ago how critical Taiwan would be in getting the semiconductor industry back up and running. We noted that Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing was rushing to try and build new facilities through the Chinese New Year in order to meet demand.

TSMC is one of the biggest suppliers of chips to company like Apple, Google and Qualcomm. As a result of a worldwide shortage in chips that was brought on due to the pandemic, they are now rushing to try and get a new factory in the southern Taiwanese city of Tainan built. Construction the new facility will take place throughout 2021, with completion expected in 2022.

Earlier in 2021 we noted that the semi situation had been turning dire and was now being referred to as the “most serious shortage in years”. Qualcomm’s CEO said last month that there were now shortages “across the board”.

And it wasn’t just Qualcomm executives speaking out: other industry leaders warned in recent weeks that they are susceptible to the shortages. Apple said recently that its new high end iPhones were on hold due to a shortage of components. NXP Semiconductors has also warned that the problems are no longer just confined to the auto industry. Sony also said last week it may not be able to to fully meet demand for its new gaming console in 2021 due to the shortage. Companies like Lenovo have also been feeling the crunch.

3 C CHINA

CHINA/USA

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

GREENSILL/UK

The collapse of Greensill explained beautifully by Bill Blain

(Bill Blain)

The Collapse Of Greensill: ‘Unwise Enablers’ & A Dearth Of Due Diligence

TUESDAY, MAR 23, 2021 – 09:46 AM

Authored by Bill Blain via MorningPorridge.com,

All That Glitters Is Not Gold

“If I take that bet I am sure I will end up with an ear-full of cider…”

The collapse of Greensill involved a predicable cast of unwise enablers, but it should serve as a warning to the growing number of Alternative Asset buyers on the dangers of complex deals which promise much but deliver less. Due diligence is critical in the highly illiquid alternatives sector.

You really can’t make it up when it comes to the collapse of supply chain charlatan Greensill. I suspect it will make a great film… It should also send a judder down our spines, reminding us things are seldom what they seem in complex structured finance:

  • I’m wondering how many fund managers are quietly nervous about what’s really in their alternative asset/direct lending investment buckets this morning?
  • If I was a holder of complex European securitisation/receivables deals that promise much, but actually provide very little information on the performance of underlying assets, then I might suddenly find an anxious desire to check just how they are REALLY doing.

At least former UK premier David Cameron will be happy. A majority comprising Tory MPs on the UK’s Treasury Select Committee blocked an inquiry into Greensill yesterday … on the basis it may be politically influenced. The factCall-Me-Dave was texting chancellor Rishi Sunak pleading for GFC to be a special case for Covid Bailout loans says it all about the dangers of lobbying. The SNP will be equally delighted at the lack of scrutiny of dodgy dealings up in the Highlands.

The Greensill collapse is unlikely to be the last time financial chicanery is exposed as sham. And that is why holders of European Alternatives and Asset backed transactions should be nervous. The lessons of the Greensill deals are multiple:

  • Don’t assume the deals you are sold are what you are told they are,
  • There is no substitute for deep due diligence.
  • Companies that look impossible to finance do not suddenly become AAA credits after a sprinkling of magic secured funding dust.
  • Anything promising of low-risk/high-returns from complex structuring and technical innovation is suspect.

Let’s review the unfolding Greensill mess:

There over 1000 holders of the $10 bln plus of defaulted Greensill investment structures packaged and issued by Credit Suisse – which marketed them as ultra-safe secured investments. Under the law, what the holders recover on these deals will rather depend on how much the administrator and the courts can jemmy out of Sanjay Gupta’s dead-firm walking; steel and commodities business GFC Alliance. (I have no hesitation in saying GFC will go to the wall – there can’t be a single sane financial firm on the planet willing to finance them as the story of its’ Greensill relationship emerges and its connected in-house banking arrangements become clearer – although, apparently, a state rescue is under consideration to save jobs.)

Investors will be lucky to see much more than the 30% recovery already in the pot from non-Gupta related investments in the Greensill funds – but Credit Suisse may decide to make its investors good.  The reputational damage of seeing their private and investment banking clients clobbered for their stupidity, which would negate their private banking brand, may mean it’s worth taking the hit. No wonder CS staff are very grumpy about their bonuses.

Successful financial scams require willing participants. All the usual fools are there in the mix.

Yet again the German regulator missed what was going on in Greensill’s German bank and its exposures to Gupta. The team at Credit Suisse who agreed to warehouse Greensill originated “future receivables” and sell them as pristine secured assets have a limited shelf life. The insurance broker who managed to convince an insurance fund the underlyings were AAA quality looks vulnerable. Or what about the sales teams in Morgan Stanley who actually marketed the deals. Yet again Softbank is in the frame after it invested in excess of $1.5 bln at a $4-7 bln valuation, hailing Greensill as a leading Finech, when the actual truth is that its high-tech driven lending algos were nothing more than basic Excel spread sheets.

Greensill’s financial magic was little more than sheer chutzpah – being able to persuade investors that the dull old low margin conservative business of factoring – short-term secured lending against invoices and accounts receivable, was something incredibly clever, undervalued and able to generate huge returns based on unique proprietary tech.

Greensill deals went further. Rather than just factoring Gupta’s bills to suppliers and its invoices, the firm conjured up “future receivables” – pledging the company’s expected future earnings for lending now. That’s not necessarily a bad thing – its basic credit – but it only works if these earnings were completely predictable like obligated mortgage payments. What Greensill was doing was lending on future earnings on very volatile commodities. Remember – oil prices went negative in 2020.

In return for funding challenging names we know Greensill took divots out these clients. It made over £36 mm financing Gupta’s deals in Scotland, and an amazing $108mm in fees from the $850mm Bluestone coal deals in the US – for which it is now being taken to court. All these fees gave Lex Greensill the wherewithal for his private Air Greensill fleet – but didn’t make the financings any safer.

Any smart investors would probably have asked questions – but what’s not to like about a deal that’s secured on receivables, offers a high coupon, is wrapped with an insurance package from reputable insurer and involves major investment firms like Credit Suisse banking them, and Morgan Stanley marketing them?

One question is how did Greensill get away with it so long?

It was clear as early as 2017 there were major issues with some of the supply chain financing deals Greensill was putting together. The following year a major Swiss investment group, GAM, blew up when deals a leading fund manager had bet the shop on were questioned internally. A review by external investigators discovered a lack of information and documentation on a whole series of Greensill deals. They questioned how due diligence was done on the deals. The fund manager was suspended and later dismissed – triggering a redemption run on the fund. The whistle-blower was also shown the door on the back of massive client exits.

GAM invested in the funds because it’s very hard to turn down the promise of a low risk / high return deal that promised so much more than the tiny yields available in conventional credit markets.

Despite the events at GAM, Credit Suisse went on to package $10 bln plus of Greensill deals. It was all done with an insurance wrap from a single name put them in its safe bucket. I know other insurance firms refused the deals. The trigger for the collapse of the Greensill scam was the withdrawl of that critical insurance – causing Credit Suisse to stop. Greensill has known for a year Tokyo Marine (which sacked the underwriter involved) would not renew and had been unable to find alternative cover.

Perhaps Credit Suisse bought the story and Softbank link that Greensill was a remarkable new Fintech with the Midas touch of changing dull, conservative factoring into a money machine? All that glitters is not gold.

One of the major developing themes in markets has been a shift from financial assets – which are seriously mispriced due to monetary distortion and financial asset inflation – into real assets, the so-called alternatives market. Alternative because they are not stocks or bonds, but cash flows and real assets. The collapse of Greensill will heighten awareness of due diligence risks in these non-standard, off-market, asset backed alternatives. Alternative asset holders will be looking at holdings for what else might be wobbly.

For instance, I might urge them not to be hypnotised by the assumptions underlying a well-known fund investing in music royalties, the basis of which is also being questioned by analysts. (I certainly won’t mention the fund by name as the manager is a well-known litigant.) I have no reason to believe or disbelieve what analysts, the FT and a US investment bank have said about it overpaying for assets or questioning the valuation hikes it puts on future revenues when it acquires catalogues. Personally I like music assets, know their value, and, given certain circumstances the fund in question might come good. Equally.. it might not.

To understand how these deals works its critical to understand exactly what’s occurring within the structures – how real are the assets, how the cash flows, how its accounted, and where it goes. That’s why having top notch accountants and lawyers is such an important requirement for any deal. However, if they are working in the interests of the issuers and bankers – then investors are the likely patsies. There is a real difference between the way US and European Asset Backed deals are structured – basically US deals are transparent. European deals tend to be opaque.

Alternative deals based on real assets and tangible cash flows are often, but not always, decorrelated from distorted financial assets, allowing low risk deals to yield better long- term returns. They tick can the box in terms of risk vs return and provide significant diversification away from conventional markets. The major negative is there is little pretence they will be liquid assets. If you want to sell – even in good markets it will not be easy.

The only way you should participate in Alternative type deals is by knowing exactly what’s going on. And – yes, my day job is Head of Alternative Assets. Happy to discuss in depth any time.

GERMANY/CORONAVIRUS UPDATE//

Germany orders another restrictive COVID lockdown

(zerohedge)

Germany Orders Most Restrictive COVID Lockdown Yet Over Easter Weekend

TUESDAY, MAR 23, 2021 – 08:03 AM

We noted yesterday that Chancellor Angela Merkel had succeeded in persuading the leaders of Germany’s 16 states to agree to another extension of the federal lockdown. And while initial reports about Merkel’s proposal noted that Germans would receive a reprieve allowing them to spend the Easter holiday with family, apparently, the government appears to have changed its mind again and decided to tighten restrictions to the toughest point yet during a brief stretch coinciding with the Easter holiday weekend to try to defuse a “third wave” of Covid-19 infections fueled by faster-spreading mutations.

All but the most important services will be closed during the lockdown period, according to RT. Noting that the country is in a “race” to combat the pandemic, Merkel outlined the nationwide shutdown during a news conference early on Tuesday, saying that not only will existing restrictions be extended to April 18, but that most businesses will be made to close their doors for at least five days beginning on the first of the month (just before the April 4 holiday) in what appears to be the most restrictive lockdown in Germany since the start of the pandemic.

During the five-day lockdown period, only shops that sell food, as well as coronavirus testing and vaccination sites, will remain open, The draconian policy will apply across Germany, even in areas where cases haven’t rebounded as intensely. Merkel said there should be “quiet days” and reduced social contacts in the time between April 1 and 5.

“We are now in a very serious situation,” the chancellor told reporters after a contentious marathon meeting with the leaders of the German states – a meeting that reportedly lasted for 12 hours.

Analysts blamed Merkel’s strict lockdown extension for a selloff in European stocks and the euro that unfurled during the first half of the European trading day on Tuesday. The notion of lockdowns extending beyond March raises the risk of delaying the 2Q rebound. Despite the stumble, however, analysts said the case for a rebound remains intact.

In addition to the restrictive business closures, Germans will be prohibited from holding private gatherings of more than five adults from two different households, while all travel abroad will be strongly discouraged. Even churches have been asked to hold only virtual services during that time, even on Easter itself.

Though some areas of Germany have slowly started to reopen, Merkel and the regional leaders agreed that anywhere that weekly cases per 100,000 residents rise above 100, the reopening efforts must be reversed. The shutdown policies have been controversial for many Germans, prompting a wave of heated demonstrations in several cities, the last of which erupted in Kassel over the weekend and led to clashes with police.

While other European governments rolled back lockdown measures as cases plunged earlier this year, Germany has been in some form of partial lockdown for almost a full year. Several states even announced closures before any nationwide measures were implemented last March.

Source: NYT

To date, Germany’s RKI has confirmed 2.6MM coronavirus infections and nearly 75K deaths. Around 7,700 new cases were recorded on Monday alone, roughly double the number from the week before.

END
EU/YCC
YCC will be implemented in the EU and then finally in the uSA  Daniel Lacalle explains YCC and the harm that it will do
(Daniel Lacalle)

Yield Curve Control: Another Recipe For Stagnation

TUESDAY, MAR 23, 2021 – 06:30 AM

Authored by Daniel Lacalle,

Central banks do not manage risk, they disguise it. You know you live in a bubble when a small bounce in sovereign bond yields generates an immediate panic reaction from central banks trying to prevent those yields from rising further. It is particularly more evident when the alleged soar in yields comes after years of artificially depressing them with negative rates and asset purchases.

It is scary to read that the European Central Bank will implement more asset purchases to control a small love in yields that still left sovereign issuers bonds with negative nominal and real interest rates. It is even scarier to see that market participants hail the decision of disguising risk with even more liquidity. No one seemed to complain about the fact that sovereign issuers with alarming solvency problems were issuing bonds with negative yields. No one seemed to be concerned about the fact that the European Central Bank bought more than 100% of net issuances from Eurozone states. What shows what a bubble we live in is that market participants find logical to see a central bank taking aggressive action to prevent bond yields from rising… to 0.3% in Spain or 0.6% in Italy.

This is the evidence of a massive bubble.

If the European Central Bank was not there to repurchase all Eurozone sovereign issuances, what yield would investors demand for Spain, Italy or Portugal? Three, four, five times the current level on the 10-year? Probably. That is why developed central banks are trapped in their own policy. They cannot hint at normalizing even when the economy is recovering strongly, and inflation is rising.

Market participants may be happy thinking these actions will drive equities and risky assets higher, but they also make economic cycles weaker, shorter, and more abrupt.

Central banks have exhausted tools like repurchasing bonds and cutting rates, the diminishing returns are evident. Now they look to Japan, of all places, to look at yield-curve-control policies.

Many articles hail the Bank Of Japan’s curve control strategy as a big success. It has managed to keep bond yields inside a narrow range around 0%, since it adopted its yield curve control (YCC) policy in 2016.

However, all this has done is disguise risk and lead the economy to massively indebted stagnation.

Why? The central bank applies constant changes in its purchases of sovereign bonds with different maturities to prevent the yield curve from steepening and bond yields from rising above a certain level, which could cause an economic crisis as risk-off takes over.

There is a deeply flawed view of markets in this theory. YCC does not reduce the risk of a crisis, simply disguises it by manipulating the price of sovereign bonds, the alleged lowest risk asset. As such, market participants always take significantly more risk than what they want or should, because the price of risk and the shape of the curve is artificially managed by the central bank.

The idea behind YCC is that savers will stop purchasing or selling sovereign bonds when they perceive that the economic cycle is changing, and that investors’ funds will be directed to finance the productive economy and put to work to invest in industry and provide credit to households. However, that does not happen. Market participants know that the shape of the yield curve is manipulated, and that risk is hidden, so most of the funds go to liquid, short-term assets and to refinance zombie firms that are already in high debt. Overcapacity is perpetuated, risky asset inflation soars, those that are already indebted are refinanced eternally and low interest rates push high liquidity to the least productive parts of the economy. It is no coincidence that the number of zombie firms has soared in the period when YCC was implemented. It is even less of a coincidence that unproductive debt has ballooned.

Allowing rates to adjust to reality through free float would be more effective to transfer liquidity to the productive segments of the economy and strengthen the recovery. It would also reduce the incentive to overspend from governments. Central banks say they do not cut rates but just follow market demands. If that is the case, let them float freely. But they will not.

YCC will likely be openly implemented by the ECB and the Federal Reserve, but it is in place de-facto already. It will not solve anything. Just make bubbles larger and the economy weaker.Just like in Japan, it will not prevent a crisis nor make the economy better prepared to face it, it will not lead to stronger economic recoveries either. The only thing that YCC does is to perpetuate bloated government spending and zombify the economy at the expense of real wages and the productive sectors. Once YCC fails, like all other financial repression tools, central banks and governments will say that it did not work because they did not do enough. It is never enough when they use other people’s money.

end

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

TURKEY/OVERNIGHT

The Istanbul stock market initially plummets, but stock market halts helped stem the red ink. The overnight cost to borrow Lira hits 10,000% as Erdogan does not want anyone to short the currency.  However it is inevitable, that the Lira will fall and inflation will rip through this nation. Turkey’s foreign reserves are basically zero except for its 500+ tonnes of gold.

(zerohedge)

All Hell Breaks Loose In Turkey: Stocks Halted, Overnight Lira Implied Rate Hits 10,000%

TUESDAY, MAR 23, 2021 – 08:48 AM

Chaos has broken out across Turkey’s capital markets with bank shares crashing and marketwide stop-loss halts activated after President Tayyip Erdogan shocked investors by sacking the central bank governor.

Turkey’s stock market logged its worst two days since the global financial crisis of 2008 this week: the fall in Turkey’s main Borsa Istanbul (BIST-100) index on Monday was the largest since mid-2013, when the Fed’s “taper tantrum” hammered emerging markets including Turkey. Turkey started off just as bad, with the BIST 100 Index plunging almost 9%, triggering circuit breakers on the Istanbul bourse for the second day.

For now, the BIST-100 appears to be supported by the 200DMA however it is only a matter of time before that support is taking out oo.

But as Bloomberg notes, after a few hours of panicked selling, stocks had clawed back almost all of the losses and the lira stabilized near a record low. Losses in Turkish markets slowed on Tuesday as some investors scooped up bargains, pulling the main equity gauge back from its biggest two-day drop in 20 years.

The BIST 100 was flat at 8am in Istanbul, helped by gains in shares of exporters and companies with foreign currency income. A gauge of banking stocks lost 6.8% after a slump of as much as 9.6% earlier. Before the partial recovery, Turkey’s banking index was down 8%, with Garanti Bank and Akbank leading the losses.

Indeed, after a chaotic trading day on Monday in the wake of President Erdogan’s decision to fire central bank Governor Naci Agbal and appoint a hand-picked puppet who believes in Erdoganomics – the country’s 4th central banker in 2 years – markets seemed to calm down following reassuring statements from Turkish officials. Yigit Bulut, a senior adviser to Erdogan, said the central bank would avoid any extraordinary steps under Agbal’s successor, Sahap Kavcioglu. He also reiterated Erdogan’s monetary policy theory that high inflation is caused by elevated interest rates.

Still, it will be extremely difficult to restore foreign investor confidence in the country’s battered financial system now that the central bank is officially Erdogan’s plaything. As Reuters notes,although the index briefly turned positive on Tuesday in high volatility following an initial dive, analysts said foreign investors were abandoning positions.

“Foreigners are vacating their positions at their losses regardless of the price, and the reaction in the market seems difficult until these orders are finished,” said Enver Erkan of Tera Yatirim quoted by Reuters.

Local investors seemed far more optimistic: “We’re starting to remove some of the hedges as we see opportunities in some stocks,” said Semih Kara, chief investment officer of Tacirler Asset Management, whose equity fund had the best return in 2020. Kara said the fund is mostly looking to add non-bank names, particularly the shares of exporters and companies with strong cash positions and no foreign-currency debt.

Many local retail investors selling shares “recently entered the market and have no experience with sell-offs,” said Tuncay Tursucu, director of research at Integral Securities. “On the other hand we see companies and stakeholders keep on buying and taking gradual long term positions.”

The burst of domestic buying may have been one of patriotism: one of Erdogan’s economic advisors, Yigit Bulut, called the stock selloff a temporary speculative attack. Speaking on broadcaster Haberturk, he said Turks had sold $5.1 billion on Monday to profit from high exchange rates as the lira fell to near record lows following Agbal’s departure.

“Investors had a bitter pill to swallow with yet another pivot at the central bank,” said Akber Khan, senior director of asset management at Al Rayan Investment in Doha. “With his proactive measures, Agbal had rapidly built precious credibility with investors, so his abrupt departure, and little clarity on the way forward, left investors fearing the worst.”

There was some stabilization in the currency as well, with the lira adding 0.3% to 7.887 per dollar after plunging as much as 17% on Monday. But options traders are the most bearish on the currency on record, one-month risk reversals show. Renaissance Capital predict the lira could slide a further 14% by year-end.

It won’t be cheap for traders who wish to short the TRY however: as of this morning, the Turkish Lira Forward Implied overnight rate was trading at 600% after hitting an insane, all-time-high 10,000% earlier as keeping a short position in the currency has now become virtually untenable.

Needless to say, such a punitive high rate is unsustainable and once the implied ON rate drops, shorts will renew their attacks on the crippled currency.

Meanwhile, the yield on Turkey’s benchmark 10-year local-currency bond was up nine basis points at 18.98%, the highest since May 2019, following Monday’s record jump of 483 basis points.

Unfortunately, while Turkey scrambles to preserve some order, it will be all for nothing because as we said yesterday, Turkey is now “beyond the tipping point.”

“Barring the carry, which is suppressing short-term weakness in the lira, the overall decimation of central-bank credibility and independence will see further outflows out of Turkey,” said Saed Abukarsh, chief investment officer at Ark Capital Management in Dubai.

“Ultimately, Erdogan would like to make an omelet without breaking any eggs” he added, an assessment we fully agree with.

UKRAINE/USA
A good look at Ukraine vs Biden.  Zelensky wants its independence from the USA but still needs them economically
(J Hawk/SouthFront)

Ukraine Between Biden And A Hard Place

TUESDAY, MAR 23, 2021 – 02:00 AM

Authored by J.Hawk exclusively for SouthFront,

Joe Biden’s extensive interest in Ukraine during his tenure as Obama’s vice president meant that US attention toward the country would be instantly elevated in the eyes of the new administration. The Burisma scandal which implicated Hunter Biden and which became a problem for Joe Biden on the campaign trail, combined with Biden’s own apparent frailty and avoidance of extensive public engagements, have meant that Biden is yet to have a telephone conversation with Zelensky.

Whether he deliberately chose to outsource Ukraine policy to his trusted advisors or they are taking initiative in order to fill the vacuum of power left by their boss’ incapacity, US-Ukraine policy has taken a number of new twists and turns in the less than two months of Biden Administration.

End of Indirect Control?

Biden Administration’s actions so far indicate a certain degree of impatience with the goings-on in Kiev which is behaving in an all too independent fashion on many issues. Kiev’s decision to nationalize Motor Sich, an aircraft engine manufacturer whose purchase was sought by Chinese investors robbed Ukraine of a significant influx of badly needed hard currency, took place after Washington expressed displeasure at Chinese companies’ foothold in Ukraine and moreover access to Soviet-era technologies attractive to China’s aerospace industries. This action was taken in spite of considerable risk of Chinese retaliation, which took the form of China’s Foreign Ministry informing its Ukrainian equivalent that it would no longer respect its wishes concerning economic activities in the Crimea, something that Chinese firms have shied away from so far. US Embassy in Kiev’s instant endorsement of Zelensky’s shutdown of three opposition TV stations and the placement of sanctions, in violation of Ukraine’s own laws, on one of Ukraine’s opposition leaders Medvedchuk on the grounds that they were involved in spreading so-called “Russian disinformation” suggests that Washington was at the very least aware of the move and may have even prompted it. US sanctioning of Igor Kolomoysky on the basis of his corrupting Ukraine’s politics indicates that Zelensky has not gone far enough in fulfilling Washington’s wishes. In doing so Washington demonstrated it is willing to publicly humiliate Zelensky should he fail to display appropriate deference to its wishes. The question at this point becomes, in what direction will Washington push Zelensky? How far, what means will Washington use to get its way, and to what extent will Zelensky resist?

Giving War Another Chance?

The greatest service that Ukraine could render Biden’s administration is by launching an all-out assault on Novorossia. A pitched battle between Ukrainian and DPR/LPR forces would instantly create necessary headlines, provide additional pretexts to condemn Russia and introduce more economic sanctions, and deliver the outcome that no amount of phony poisonings of Navalny could, namely the suspension or even shut-down of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline that has become a thorn in the side of the Anglo-Saxon powers and a matter of national self-assertion for Germany. A major military campaign involving several brigades supported by airpower and the now-operational Bayraktar TB-2 drones in an effort to replicate Azerbaijan’s success against Armenia in Nagorno-Karabakh would place Moscow before the unenviable choice of abandoning the Donbass to its fate or committing its regular military forces to battle in Novorossia’s defense.

Whether Ukraine’s political leadership is willing to undertake such a desperate measure, in a country whose president suffers from a 20% approval rating and which has seen extensive recent protests against the increase in utility payment rates, is another question. On the one hand, Ukrainian troop movements on the Donbass have generated considerable attention, and exchanges of fire between Ukrainian and Novorossian forces appear to have continued at an elevated pace in the past several weeks. At the same time, no extraordinary measures such as the recall of reservists or closure of borders in order to prevent military-age males from leaving the country have been observed. While Ukraine’s Rada is considering laws making draft evasion more harshly punishable, these laws will not have an immediate impact, and appear to be a reaction to the failure to build up a professional army of volunteers or even to give the draftees a positive reason to serve. It has even been pointed out that the Ukrainian troop movements have been so ostentatious and lacking in even elementary efforts to preserve concealment and surprise that they represent a “war of nerves”, an exercise in brinksmanship, and possibly an effort to simulate action for the benefit of Washington, rather than genuine preparations for an offensive. A train carrying a reinforced tank company that has been spotted slowly passing three different railroad crossings in eastern Ukraine over the course of several days looks like an operation staged for the benefit of ubiquitous smart phone cameras.

Therefore the likelihood of Ukrainian military opting for a large-scale offensive remains low due to fear of heavy and pointless losses which might cause Ukraine’s military morale to collapse, with unpredictable consequences. Small-scale raids to capture select positions, shelling of Novorossia’s towns and cities, even a staged atrocity, remain more plausible and attractive from the political point of view. Ukraine’s most dangerous military capability is represented by Bayraktar drones, cruise missiles like the Neptun, and short-range ballistic missiles currently in service and being developed, because their use would not entail the danger of major Ukrainian personnel losses. Moreover, Novorossia’s forces would be hard pressed to retaliate against such strikes in kind, Russian efforts to do so would be highly provocative internationally, and moreover carry the risk of causing Ukrainian civilian casualties. Fortunately for Novorossia, the drone park remains fairly small and the drones themselves are vulnerable to Novorossia’s air defenses, while the cruise and ballistic missiles are still years from large-scale operational deployment. The sort of missile bombardment that would represent genuine threat to Novorossia’s unrecognized republics is still years away, if not beyond. By the time they are, Novorossia’s forces will likely have their own means of retaliation in the form of barrage munitions, also referred to as “suicide drones” that could be produced on the spot in Donetsk and Lugansk. However, Ukraine’s current capabilities are sufficient to launch provocations, including through bombardment of civilian targets as was the case in Mariupol in 2014.

The Blackmail Factor?

That Ukraine’s military is unwilling to risk another mis-adventure against Novorossia is evident enough, as is Zelensky’s reticence to go down in history as the president who destroyed Ukraine. These considerations are unlikely to be salient for decisionmakers in Washington who need Ukraine to advance US interests, rather than US to advance Ukraine’s. But the lengths to which Washington is willing to go to pressure Zelensky are still unclear, though the possibility of outright blackmail has raised its head when a prominent Maidan propagandist Dmitry Gordon announced that on March 15, the “Ides of March” immortalized by the assassination of Julius Caesar, would face a trial of historic proportions once a certain bombshell news story were revealed. While March 15 came and went with no bombshells or even duds, Gordon did reveal that the event consisted of a Bellingcat “investigation” into the SBU plot to lure Wagner PMC contractors into Ukraine in order to have them put on trial. The “bombshell” aspect of the Bellingcat effort is that the plot failed because of a highly placed source in Zelensky’s own presidential cabinet who leaked it to Russian intelligence services. Considering Bellingcat’s reputation as a firm which does info-warfare “hits” on designated targets, and Gordon’s hyping of the impact of the film once it becomes public, one has to consider the possibility Bellingcat is part of a campaign to blackmail or even oust Zelensky from office should he fail to satisfy Washington’s demands. According to Gordon, the movie’s release is planned for early April, which presumably gives Zelensky a bit of extra time to deliver the goods.

As noted above, Zelensky has taken a dim view of Washington’s meddling in Ukraine’s affairs, though it remains to be seen whether he is able to stand up to even his own national security officials who ostensibly are subordinate to him but in reality take orders from Washington. Lacking an independent power base that allowed Poroshenko to resist Washington’s initiatives in “reforming” Ukraine’s economy, Zelensky may yet prove the ideal president from Washington’s perspective, if not Ukraine’s.

end

New Zealand

The New Zealand dollar falls badly after the government is now taking aim at speculators who are driving up house prices.  The housing market in New Zealand is red hot due to inflation

(zerohedge)

6.Global Issues

Kiwi Crumbles As New Zealand Targets Speculators To Burst “Dangerous” Housing Bubble

TUESDAY, MAR 23, 2021 – 12:10 PM

One month after the New Zealand government took the historic step of adding a fresh mandate to its central bank, tasking it with considering the impact its monetary and financial policy decisions have on housing prices, a move to help calm the country’s red-hot property market, overnight New Zealand’s government took another step at popping the local housing bubble by taking aim at property speculators with a suite of new measures to tackle runaway house prices and prevent the formation of a “dangerous” bubble.

As a reminder, back in February, Finance Minister Grant Robertson said the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) must take into account government policy relating to more sustainable house prices.

“Today’s announcement is just the first step as the government considers broader advice about how to cool the housing market,” Robertson said in a statement. “We know the rapid increases we have seen in recent months are not sustainable, which has meant many first-home buyers are struggling to access the market.”

However, with home prices refusing to dip and stubbornly sticky at all time highs, rising by a record 21.5% in February

… on Tuesday, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said the government will take more steps to cool the red hot housing market, and will remove tax incentives for investors to make speculation less lucrative and unlock more land to increase housing supply. The moves come as surging house prices keep first-time buyers and people on lower incomes out of the market, raising concerns about growing societal inequality. One wonders when the Fed will finally consider the impact of soaring home prices – largely the result of extremely easy financial conditions courtesy of the Fed – on social inequality (spoiler alert: never).

“The last thing home owners need right now is a dangerous housing bubble, but a number of indicators point towards that risk,” Ardern told a news conference. “Property investors are now the biggest share of buyers, with the highest amount of purchases on record. Last year, 15,000 people bought homes who already owned five or more.”

Not to mention the thousands of American billionaires who have decided to make New Zealand their beautiful bug-out location of choice.

As Bloomberg notes, New Zealand’s success in battling Covid-19 has seen its economy recover sooner than many others, putting it at the forefront of a global property boom as ultra-loose monetary policies encourage investment in higher-yielding assets. House prices surged 21.5% in the year through February and investors accounted for more than 40% of purchases that month, a record high.

So to dissuade speculation, the government will enforce the extraordinary step phasing out the ability of investors to claim mortgage interest as a tax-deductible expense, and will extend of the period in which profits on the sale of investment property are taxed to 10 years from five.

According to Westpac Banking Corp, the changes “will significantly reduce the financial incentives to invest in housing” and have “a chilling effect on investor demand. Today’s announcements indicate significant downside risk for house prices and economic activity more generally.”

The package is the latest salvo in Ardern’s assault on the booming property market, which is undermining her efforts to reduce inequality. Prices are soaring at double-digit rates around the country, taking the national median to NZ$780,000 ($556,000). In Auckland, the median price has reached NZ$1.1 million, making it the fourth least affordable city in the world, according to Demographia.

After tasking the central bank to pay more attention to the property market as noted above, NZ finmin Grant Robertson said today that New Zealand’s housing market has become the least affordable in the OECD and it was “essential the government takes steps to curb rampant speculation.”

Robertson said extending to 10 years the so-called “bright-line” test – effectively a capital gains tax on investment property sales – and removing interest deductibility for investors “will dampen speculative demand and tilt the balance towards first home buyers.” While the new bright-line test will apply to properties bought from March 27, the time horizon for new builds will remain at five years to encourage supply.

At the same time as the government tries to curb housing demand, it is also increasing supply which has been constrained by a raft of factors including planning rules and high construction costs. It said today it will establish a NZ$3.8 billion fund to unlock more land for housing development, and also make first home grants available to more people.

The irony, as Rabobank’s always perceptive Michael Every notes, is that virtually all of the proposed measures will have little to no impact on home prices:

  • A NZD3.8bn fund to unlock more land for housing development – which won’t make any difference, as housing developers only build when prices are high.
  • Government first home grants available to more people – which will also push prices up further;
  • The extension of the period in which profits on the sale of investment property are taxed to 10 years from five – which won’t bother people if prices are rising 20% y/y; and
  • Phasing out the ability of investors to claim mortgage interest as a tax-deductible expense.

Ardern disagreed and said that “the housing crisis is a problem decades in the making that will take time to turn around, but these measures will make a difference”, adding that while “there is no silver bullet, but combined all of these measures will start to make a difference.” Only they won’t, and instead the latest government intervention will only makes things worse as it will remove the impetuse from the RBNZ to tighten conditions earlier.

Speaking of which, the New Zealand dollar plunged by almost 2%, dropping to 70.20 US cents, down from 71.70 cents beforehand. Swap rates and bond yields also declined as traders speculated the central bank will be able to keep interest rates at a record low for longer thanks to the government’s own efforts to rein in home prices.

“The announcements made today relating to housing investors were bolder than most expected and will be more hard hitting because they basically take effect straight away,” said David Croy, an interest-rate strategist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group in Wellington. If that cools the housing market, it will give the RBNZ more breathing space, and delay rate hikes.

And since the level of overall liquidity is all that matters, it means that New Zealand’s “dangerous” housing bubble is about to get even more dangerous.

VACCINE UPDATE/ASTRAZENACA

AstraZeneca Admits Vaccine Efficacy Based On “Interim” Data, Vows To Release Update Within 48 Hours

TUESDAY, MAR 23, 2021 – 08:26 AM

Update (0800ET): As the media (and the rest of the world) tries to figure out what exactly is going on with the AstraZeneca trial data, and whether the vaccine’s ability to protect the population from COVID truly does outweigh the risks, the company has just released a statement promising to release up-to-date results from the final phase of the trial within 48 hours.

AZ said yesterday’s trial conclusions were based on an “interim analysis” with all data received by the cutoff date of Feb. 17. Then, it promised to “immediately engage with the independent data safety monitoring board to share our primary analysis with the most up to date efficacy data.” Results of this primary analysis will be available within 2 days.

The numbers published yesterday were based on a pre-specified interim analysis with a data cut-off of 17 February.

We have reviewed the preliminary assessment of the primary analysis and the results were consistent with the interim analysis. We are now completing the validation of the statistical analysis.

We will immediately engage with the independent data safety monitoring board (DSMB) to share our primary analysis with the most up to date efficacy data.

We intend to issue results of the primary analysis within 48 hours.

More academics complained about the optics of the situation.

“The last thing this vaccine needs is more concern when we kind of thought we were at that point now where we would put to bed all the other concerns,” said Paul Griffin, an associate professor of medicine at the University of Queensland in Brisbane, who is conducting clinical studies in Australia on four Covid-19 vaccine candidates.

And reporters complained that AstraZeneca’s explanation, and the whole back-and-forth between Astra and the NIH, seemed bizarre.

The efficacy rate in the US trial was stronger than the 70% figure AstraZeneca reported from an earlier study. But those data were an average of different readings (62% and 90%) from two separate arms of the study. Bottom line: Whatever the ‘final’ efficacy number is, it should probably be taken with a grain of salt.

* * *

Pretty soon, maybe AstraZeneca can stop blaming European governments for stoking skepticism about the company’s COVID jab, and start blaming the US (or maybe the drugmaking giant might consider accepting some responsibility, considering the reaction to rare blood clots isn’t the first safety issue to mar the jabs reputation).

One day after proclaiming to the world that an extremely thorough and credible study based in the US (but carried out both in the US and across South America) had shown its jab to be 79% effective at preventing COVID (and 100% effective at preventing serious cases of the virus-caused disease) US officials are slamming the drug company and the data for possibly misrepresenting the vaccine’s efficacy.

Earlier Tuesday morning, US officials issued an unusual statement expressing concerns the company had included “outdated information” from its study and that it may have provided “an incomplete view of the efficacy data.” The concern, according to the Data and Safety Monitoring Board (the group responsible for overseeing trials of new medication and vaccines), is that the report included “outdated information” which may have provided “an incomplete view” of the efficacy data.

Late Monday, the Data and Safety Monitoring Board (DSMB) notified NIAID, BARDA, and AstraZeneca that it was concerned by information released by AstraZeneca on initial data from its COVID-19 vaccine clinical trial. The DSMB expressed concern that AstraZeneca may have included outdated information from that trial, which may have provided an incomplete view of the efficacy data. We urge the company to work with the DSMB to review the efficacy data and ensure the most accurate, up-to-date efficacy data be made public as quickly as possible. Authorization and guidelines for use of the vaccine in the United States will be determined by the Food and Drug Administration and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention after thorough review of the data by independent advisory committees.

And once again, the AZ shot – which is a linchpin of the WHO’s effort to vaccinate poorer countries via its Bill Gates-approved COVAX initiative – has been mired in controversy. Notably, AstraZeneca neglected to include key numbers like the number of trial participants who developed ‘severe COVID’. The company’s president told CNBC the number was ‘5’ during an interview on CNBC’s Squawk Box shortly after the data were released.

“The way they handled their data early on, AstraZeneca basically shot themselves in the foot,” Julian Tang, a virologist at the University of Leicester, said even before the latest issue arose. “Even though the new study confirms what we previously thought about the vaccine’s efficacy, people may have lingering doubts,” he said. “Unfortunately, that might mean more people will die of COVID.”

Criticisms of AstraZeneca studies stem back to the first data released in the UK, which purported to show that the jab was 70% effective. However, the trial data didn’t account for a manufacturing mistake, and also didn’t include enough participants over the age of 65 to deduce efficacy among older patients. European governments like Germany and France responded by initially limiting the jab to patients under the age of 65. US authorities suspended the US trial for 6 weeks last fall for mysterious reasons that were never fully explained. Following the latest release, Astrazeneca head of research and development Mene Pangalos called the data “much cleaner” than prior releases, expressing hope it “puts to bed any doubts.”

In a report on the DSMB’s complaints, the Associated Press warned that this latest ‘speed bump’ could have a lasting impact, even if the company clears up the issue, before citing the decades-long lingering doubts about the measles vaccine that have supercharged the anti-vaxxer movement in the US.

As analysts scrambled to interpret the statement, one scientist on twitter claimed the US government has stopped just short of accusing AstraZeneca of manipulating its trial data.

After all the criticism levied at European leaders for taking extreme precaution and halting the shots over reports of a handful of cases of deadly blood clots developing in certain patients post-vaccination, is it now Dr. Anthony Fauci’s fault that trust in the world’s most important COVID vaccine has tumbled to an all-time low?

end

“It’s A Very Good Vaccine” – Dr. Fauci Tries To Rationalize AstraZeneca’s Latest “Unforced Error”

TUESDAY, MAR 23, 2021 – 11:05 AM

During an interview where the good doctor also reassured the public that the troubled AstraZeneca COVID jab is still “a very good vaccine”, Dr. Anthony Fauci, senior advisor to President Biden, head of the NIAID, and head of the US delegation to the WHO, warned that Europe’s third wave could portend another surge in infections in the US.

With cases rising week over week in more than half of US states, and reports about the AstraZeneca trial data baffling the public, Dr. Fauci appeared on “Good Morning America” Tuesday to try and explain exactly what is going on.

Fauci started by assuring his audience that he was “optimistic” about the AstraZeneca vaccines’ effectiveness and expressed hope that AstraZeneca’s vaccine would soon join the other three approved for use in the US.

As for the AstraZeneca vaccine, Dr. Fauci explained during the interview that the DSMB, the agency overseeing all the COVID vaccine trials in the US, became incensed after it saw AstraZeneca publish a press release outlining the main findings from the trial data. That release – which the company later admitted was based on an “interim analysis” – was apparently seen as unsuitably premature by the regulator, which angrily rebuked AstraZeneca in “a rather harsh note” saying they thought the data in the press release “was somewhat outdated and might in fact be misleading a bit” – according to Dr. Fauci’s description (he said he had been copied on the email between the DSMB and AstraZeneca).

He concluded that releasing the data prematurely was “an unforced error” on AstraZeneca’s part, but that the jab would nonetheless be proven reliable and safe.

While Dr. Fauci’s attempt to explain away the latest AstraZeneca controversy took up most of the interview, the Associated Press noted that Dr. Fauci also warned about a surge in US cases.

Although vaccinations have eclipsed 105MM in the US and are continuing to climb at a staggering pace of more than 2M per day, an uptick in new cases, coinciding with genetic sequencing showing infectious mutated strains are responsible for much of the spread, has got policymakers worried. As more states reduce COVID lockdown restrictions, or abandon them entirely, many fear the US numbers could rise, following a pattern seen in Europe.

After Fauci’s stint on the popular morning show, GMA moved on to another story that might help explain all the panic about rising case numbers: pretty soon, the card people receiving displaying proof that they have received their COVID jabs might be more used for more than taking selfies. Pretty soon, proof of vaccination could become like a hall pass for life, permitting bearers to access everything from air travel to dine-in seating. But to justify this, governments need people to keep taking vaccines – and right now, demand far outstrips supply.

end

7. OIL ISSUES

end

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings TUESDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1879 DOWN .0053 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS//CORONAVIRUS/PANDEMIC/TRUMP POSITIVE WITH VIRUS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /RED EXCEPT SPAIN 

USA/JAPAN YEN 108.54 DOWN 0.232 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.3783   DOWN   0.0076  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/

USA/CAN 1.2577 UP .0056 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  TUESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL BY 53 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1718 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE DOWN 31.93 PTS OR .93% 

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 387.96 PTS OR 1.34% 

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0,12%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED EXCEPT SPAIN

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 387.96 PTS OR 1.34% 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 31.93 PTS OR .93% 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.12% 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 178.23  POINTS OR 0.61%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1738.55

silver:$25.54-

Early TUESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 1.648% !!! DOWN 5 IN POINTS from MONDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

The 30 yr bond yield 12.363 DOWN 4  IN BASIS POINTS from MONDAY night.

USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 92.12  UP 3 CENT(S) from  MONDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers TUESDAY MORNING

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And now your closing  TUESDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.19% DOWN 3 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.08.%  DOWN 0   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.31%//DOWN 3 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:0.62 DOWN 4 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 31 points higher than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.34% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.87% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR TUESDAY

Closing currency crosses for TUESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1868  DOWN     .0065 or 65 basis points

USA/Japan: 108.68 DOWN .096 OR YEN UP 10  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3784 DOWN .0075 POUND UP 75  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 40 basis points to 1.2561

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The USA/Yuan,  CNY: closed    ON SHORE  (x)..DOWN AT 6.5164

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.750  (YUAN DOWN)..AT 6.5163

TURKISH LIRA:  7.85  EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.08%

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 4 IN basis points from MONDAY at 1.657 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.371 DOWN 3 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 92.18 UP  44  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for TUESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 12.62  0.19%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 37.36 POINTS OR .25%

Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 11.04 POINTS 0.19%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 58.90 POINTS or 0.71%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 72.40 POINTS OR 0.30%

WTI Oil price; 59.15 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 61.96 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE FALLS:    76.11  THE CROSS HIGHER BY 1.11 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE LOWER BY 111 BASIS PTS)

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.34 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OILPRICE 4:30 PM :  57.56//

BRENT :  60.29

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 1.630..down 7 basis points…

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.332 down 7 basis points..

EURO/USA 1.1849 ( DOWN 84   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:108.58 DOWN .195 (YEN UP 20 BASIS POINTS/..

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 92.34 UP 60 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.3748 DOWN 110  POINTS

the Turkish lira close: 7.94

the Russian rouble 76.39   DOWN 1.61 Roubles against the uSA dollar. (DOWN161 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.2589 DOWN 67 BASIS pts

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.34%

The Dow closed DOWN 303.05 POINTS OR 0.94%

NASDAQ closed DOWN 68.72 POINTS OR 2.22%


VOLATILITY INDEX:  20.30 CLOSED UP 1.42

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 0.190%//libor dropping like a stone

USA trading today in Graph Form

Russell Routed, Crude Crashed, Bonds Bid As Bull Market Turns One

TUESDAY, MAR 23, 2021 – 04:00 PM

“Off the lows” from exactly one year ago, Small Caps are up a stunning 122%…

Source: Bloomberg

As $17 trillion in global liquidity was gushed into “the economy” (by which we mean the shittiest stocks you can think of)…

Source: Bloomberg

But the last two days have been a bloodbath for Small Caps. The S&P is unch, Dow down marginally and Nasdaq up 1.3% (but all were red today)…

Did investors just get over-stuffed with ebulience?

This comes a day after the largest one-day inflow to QQQ since 2000…

Source: Bloomberg

Small Caps plunged back below their 50DMA…

And Nasdaq continues to languish below its 50DMA, unable to break back above it…

Early dip-buyers in Energy just weren’t enough…

Source: Bloomberg

Hedgies got hit hard today as “most shorted” stocks were slammed…

Source: Bloomberg

While VIX picked up today, it remains shockingly decoupled from rate vol…

Source: Bloomberg

The bloodbathery in stocks sparked a bid for bonds (or maybe the causal link goes the other way?) 30Y yields are down over 10bps on the week…

Source: Bloomberg

Pushing 10Y Yields back below 1.65%, the spike lows from last week’s FOMC…

Source: Bloomberg

30Y Breakevens hit their highest since 2014…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar surged higher today, back to 2 week highs, well above pre-FOMC levels…

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos were flatish today holding losses for the week…

Source: Bloomberg

Commodities were all sold today as the dollar rallied but copper and crude got hit worst…

Source: Bloomberg

Crude Crashed today as demand fears (European lockdowns) and supply anxiety (floating storage unwinds) slammed WTI back below $60, $59, and $58 to six-week lows (and below its 50DMA) ahead of tonight’s API inventory data…

Finally, we note that the last 12 months were the strongest for the S&P 500 since 1936. Just remember what happened in 1937…

Source: Bloomberg

Trade accordingly.

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

b)MARKET TRADING/USA//Non farm payrolls

ii)Market data/USA

New Home Sales Collapse In February Amid Higher Rates, Weather

TUESDAY, MAR 23, 2021 – 10:12 AM

Following the unexpected tumble in existing home sales, new home sales have crashed in February. Against expectations of a 5.7% MoM drop, sales collapsed 18.2% – worse than at the peak of the crisis last year and the worst MoM drop since 2013

Sales dropped in all regions across the U.S.. Notably, extreme weather had an impact with MidWest sales plunging 37.5% and Texas sales collapsing…

Housing demand is being restrained partly by a limited number of available properties that offer interested buyers fewer choices at the same time prices remain elevated.

But, as Wolf Richter details in his latest report at WolfStreet.com, we suspect that these are the first signs that higher mortgage rates are impacting the housing market.

Mortgage refis have dropped since January, driven by a sharp drop in no-cash-out refis; cash-out refis have also dropped, but less so, for a reason we’ll get to in a moment. This chart shows the Mortgage Bankers Association’s mortgage refi index:

No-cash out refis “are already seeing large volume declines,” according to a report by the AEI Housing Center, which pointed out that due to the higher rates, fewer loans are “in the money.”

Cash-out refis are also down but only modestly, “as these borrowers are driven more by cash needs than rates,” the AEI report said.

The chart by the AEI Housing Center shows the weekly no-cash-out refis in 2021 (light-blue line, left scale) heading south, and in 2020 (brown line); it also shows the median mortgage rate in 2021 (dark blue line). The time line indicates the weeks of the year:

The AEI’s weekly Home Price Appreciation index, while still up a massive 14% year-over-year, has started to back off tad: at one point in early February, it was up over 17% year-over-year.

The “decreased buying power” due to the rising interest rates is “already having a limited effect in slowing HPA,” The AEI said. “The somewhat lower HPA in week 10 of 2021 looks to be the first sign of this trend.”

But the AEI added that “a loan rate of 4% might, due to severe supply constraints, still result in an unsustainable HPA rate of 8%-11%.”

Mortgage applications for the purchase of a home have also declined from the peak in mid-January:

So it seems from this weekly data that the housing market remains red-hot, but the higher mortgage rates, which remain ultra-low by historical measures, have already started dialing down the heat.

*  *  *

end

This is huge!! This is a negative to GDP

U.S. current account deficit hits 12-year high in 2020

* Current account deficit increases 34.8% in 2020

* Fourth-quarter current account gap widens 4.2%

WASHINGTON, March 23 (Reuters) – The U.S. current account deficit raced to a 12-year high in 2020 as the COVID-19 pandemic severely disrupted exports and could remain elevated this year as an economic recovery driven by massive fiscal stimulus draws in imports.

The Commerce Department said on Tuesday the current account deficit, which measures the flow of goods, services and investments into and out of the country, surged 34.8% to $647.2 billion last year. That was the largest shortfall since 2008.

The current account gap represented 3.1% of gross domestic product last year, also the largest share since 2008 and up from 2.2% in 2019. The high current account deficit is likely not an issue for the United States, in part because of the dollar’s status as the reserve currency.

“Early 2021 data shows the trade recovery continuing in the first quarter, but it will take time to return to pre-COVID conditions since the pandemic isn’t over yet and stretched supply chains are inhibiting progress,” said Oren Klachkin, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics in New York.

“Looking ahead, we expect the current account deficit to widen slightly and average 3.5% of GDP in 2021 as positive recovery dynamics and generous fiscal stimulus maintain a strong pull on imports while exports recover more slowly.”

Economic growth this year is expected to top 7%, driven by the White House’s $1.9 trillion pandemic rescue package. That would be the fastest growth since 1984 and would follow a 3.5% contraction last year, the worst performance in 74 years.

Exports of goods and services to, and income received from foreign residents dropped $578.3 billion to $3.23 trillion in 2020. Imports of goods and services from, and income paid to, foreign residents fell $411.3 billion to $3.87 trillion.

The trade deficit jumped to $681.7 billion in 2020 from $576.9 billion in 2019.

In the fourth quarter, the current account gap widened 4.2% to $188.5 billion, the highest since the second quarter of 2007. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the deficit widening to $189.9 billion last quarter.

It represented 3.5% of GDP in the October-December quarter, up from 3.4% in the third quarter and was the largest share since the fourth quarter of 2008. Still, the deficit remains below a peak of 6.3% of GDP in the fourth quarter of 2005 as the United States is now a net exporter of crude oil and fuel.

-END-

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

WeWork seeking $1 Billion in a SPAC. Despite the loss of $3.2 billion last year, somebody might be stupid enough to invest in this garbage

(zerohedge)

WeWork Nears Deal With Shaq-Backed SPAC Despite Losing $3.2 Billion Last Year

MONDAY, MAR 22, 2021 – 08:20 PM

The fact that potential investors were even taking meetings with the WeWork management team is a sign of just how few suitable takeover opportunities remain in a market that has been saturated by SPACs (following a decade-plus post-crisis bull run where rock-bottom interest rates and oodles of free money ensured that VCs and private equity titans like Apollo have already picked the bones). But now the troubled office-space rental company, which has been shouting into the void about a management-led turnaround strategy, has just offered some more details into just how desperate SPAC management is to close a deal.

Just look at how many SPACs have launched over the past 16 months. And the average deal size has increased since the start of the year..

…as SPACs increasingly seek to merger with larger targets.

We first heard that WeWork management was looking to try and hitch a ride on the SPAC boom (incidentally, the news hit around the same time that SoftBank reportedly was considering launching its “Vision Fund 2” as a SPAC) last fall. Then in January, it was reported that the company was in talks with not one, but several, teams of potential suitors.

Well, fast forward a couple of months, and those eager suitors have apparently gotten a peak at WeWork’s finances, and they’re about as bad as can be expected. According to the FT, the company lost $3.2 billion last year, which ironically was an improvement over the prior (non-COVID-plagued) year 2019. Still, WeWork is pitching for $1 billion in new investment along with the stock-market listing that has long eluded it (as a reminder, the IPO was shelved in 2019 after the company saw its private valuation slide from nearly $50 billion to less than $10 billion in a matter of weeks).

In one encouraging sign, the improvement in WeWork’s losses during the plague year resulted from the company slashing operating expenses from $2.2 billion to just $49MM. However, we’re not certain how encouraging that number actually is, considering that WeWork would almost certainly need to ramp up spending once clients start returning to its offices. According to the company’s “Project Windmill”, WeWork is hoping to go public at a valuation of $9BN.

But more interesting than the numbers is the identity of WeWork’s suitor. The FT reports that BowX Acquisition Corp, which raised more than $420MM back in August, is one of the SPACs interested in acquiring WeWork as its target. Basketball legend Shaquille O’Neal is a BowX advisor, one of a multitude of celebrities who have glomed onto the craze. WeWork and BowX hope to obtain the additional $1BN WeWork is hoping to raise by lining up institutional investors (a common maneuver employed by SPACs, most of which recruit institutional capital to supplement the money they have raised from investors).

While the $9 billion valuation that WeWork is pitching is much reduced from the astronomical figure it succeeded in achieving (thanks largely to SoftBank), some things about WeWork never change.

WeWork is once again pitching itself to investors not as a conventional bricks and mortar landlord but as a high-tech platform, as it did in 2019. The documents seen by the FT describe the business as a “worldwide property technology platform” and an “asset light platform for managing and orchestrating flexible space”.

Still, the FT notes that some investors are skeptical of WeWork and its projections.

Projections in the documents include a fast rebound in occupancy to 90 per cent – well above WeWork’s pre-pandemic level – by the end of 2022 and adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation of $485m next year.

One investor pitched on the WeWork deal cast doubt on the company’s projections, which also forecast that revenues would climb from $3.2bn last year to $7bn by 2024.

And we don’t blame them. The notion that WeWork’s occupancy rates will top 90% by the end of next year seems unlikely, since freelancers and upstart companies can save more money by simply continuing to work from home.

But at the end of the day, that probably doesn’t matter many of the people negotiating with WeWork. SPACs have two years to get a deal done, or face the prospect of returning money to investors. Once the money is raised, the SPAC’s sponsors can cash out.

Which means the most critical factor driving SPAC deal flow is the availability of eager dupes, not the availability of compelling opportunities.

END

TEXAS/PLASTIC SHORTAGES

The Texas freeze two weeks ago has severely impacted petrochemical plants and thus we witness huge global shorages of plastics

(zerohedge)

“Going To Get Ugly” – Global Plastic Shortage Triggered By Texas Deep Freeze

TUESDAY, MAR 23, 2021 – 05:45 AM

The cold snap that shut down oil fields and refineries across Texas last month has severely impacted several petrochemical plants caused a global shortage of plastics, according to WSJ. Plastics produced on the Gulf Coast are essential for carmaking, medical devices, homebuilding, and consumables.

Prices for polyethylene, polypropylene, and other plastics used to make automobiles, computers, and pipes have reached their highest prices in years due to the shortages produced by the shuttering of petrochemical plants across Texas and other Gulf Coast states due to cold weather in February.

On top of a shortage of almost everything and soaring prices, as we explained days ago, wide-scale supply chain pains are expected throughout 2021.

WSJ reports Honda Motor Co. will halt some of its U.S. and Canadian automobile factories this week due to supply chain issues from the winter storm last month.

Toyota Motor Corp. expects the shortage of petrochemicals to hurt production at its car plants. Paint maker PPG Industries Inc. said a number of its suppliers had been affected by the plastic shortage. Storage and shelving retailer, Container Store Group Inc., warned that the plastic shortage could impact profit margins.

John Schiegg, vice president of supply-chain services for David Weekley Homes, a Houston-based homebuilder, said a shortage of everything from siding to adhesives to insulation is quickly materializing – this could easily delay homebuilding projects, or in the meantime, result in higher costs.

It’s not just plastic in short supply; shortages have also been reported in lumbersteel, and semiconductors.

Several PVC piping manufacturers told Schiegg that they couldn’t fulfill his order because of the supply chain disruptions due to the crippling of petrochemical plants.

“We had no idea how much came from the Gulf Coast area,” Schiegg said. “I tell people it’s going to get ugly. There’s going to be a big fight for materials.”

It’s not just home building that’s being affected by the shortage. Hospitals are experiencing a lack of plastic medical equipment.

Kim Anders, a supply-chain executive at the hospital buying group Premier Inc., said the virus pandemic had caused a significant increase in demand for the use of needles but, at the moment, medical and disposable sharps containers (made out of plastic) are hard to obtain.

Prices for low-density polyethylene film in Houston, Texas, have nearly doubled since the beginning of the pandemic, reaching a decade high this month. LDPE plastic film is used for dry cleaner bags, bread bags, paper towel overwrap, and shipping sacks.

Prices for linear low-density polyethylene in Houston, Texas, have reached highs not seen since 2015. LLDPE is used for plastic wrap, stretch wrap, pouches, toys, covers, lids, pipes, buckets, containers, cables, geomembranes, and flexible tubing.

While the plastic shortage has sent specific plastic prices to decade highs, demand appears to be an overwhelming supply at the moment. Even before last month’s deep freeze, the Gulf Coast’s chemical industry was hurting from a super active hurricane season. On top of this all, the Federal Reserve is setting off a historical experiment to run the economy extremely hot via low rates and massive fiscal stimulus.

“We could also see upward pressure on prices if spending rebounds quickly as the economy continues to reopen, particularly if supply bottlenecks limit how quickly production can respond in the near-term,” Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said last week. “However, these one-time increases in prices are likely to have only transient effects on inflation.”

Supply bottlenecks of plastics, lumbersteelchips are already dragging on specific industrial production. We’re only finding out how vulnerable global supply chains are, and the other is how crucial plastic is to the economy.

Respondents to the most recent mfg ISM revealed just how bad supply chain disruptions truly is:

  • “Things are now out of control. Everything is a mess, and we are seeing wide-scale shortages.” (Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components)
  • “Supply chains are depleted; inventories up and down the supply chain are empty. Lead times increasing, prices increasing, [and] demand increasing. Deep freeze in the Gulf Coast expected to extend duration of shortages.” (Chemical Products)

Goldman Sachs told clients last week that supply chain woes might not be resolved until 2022.

end
Why inflation will not be transient
(Bloomberg)

“Get Ready For Some Serious Sticker Shock Very Soon: This Jump In Inflation Won’t Be Transient”

TUESDAY, MAR 23, 2021 – 09:15 AM

By Bloomberg Markets Live reporter and commentator Vincent Cignarella

Semiconductor Costs Could Lead to a Shock This Fall

Consumer confidence is key to how people plan to spend. You can see it in the chart below. And as the chip shortage grows, expect the higher prices to begin showing up in products, which could dampen confidence and eventually stall consumer spending.

The recent surge in chip prices hasn’t affected consumers, and stimulus has kept spending up while confidence has lagged. But that will soon change. Manufacturers have been eating the increase costs and not passing them on to consumers. With chip prices expected to rise every quarter this year, many companies will be unable to keep swallowing it, especially those with tight margins.

Manufacturers order semiconductors six months in advance. The choke points along the supply chain driving up prices and creating shortages will come to a head in the third quarter, when the next orders to replace inventories are delivered, according to the founder of SouthBay Research Andrew Zatlin.

Automakers will struggle to hold the line. At General Motors, for example, roughly 5% of the cost of goods sold is from semiconductors. The company has 11% margins, and a surge in chip prices will hit profits hard, according to Zatlin. And small business who sell to the likes of Amazon and Walmart with tight retail margins will be forced to raise prices even higher.

The impact should only spread from there. Which is why this jump in inflation won’t be transient as the Fed hopes. Every manufacturer with tight margins will be forced to raise and maintain higher prices. So get ready for some serious sticker shock very soon.

CORONAVIRUS UPDATE/USA

New COVID Cases Jump In 27 States As Fauci Urges Them To “Take It Easy” On Reopening

MONDAY, MAR 22, 2021 – 06:00 PM

As Germany joins the growing list of EU nations expanding or reinstating lockdown measures, the US is eyeing Europe’s “third wave” nervously, especially as genetic sequencing has uncovered new fast-spreading mutant strains in the US, while also revealing that strains first isolated in the UK and South Africa have also come to dominate newly diagnosed cases in some of the largest states.

Meanwhile, the latest data from the CDC show the number of newly confirmed COVID cases in the US increased by 1% last week, yet another troubling sign that the dramatic slowdown in the pace of the pandemic might itself be running out of steam. Some are looking at places like Texas and Florida and insisting that the rollback of certain restrictions was to blame.

Across the US, an average of 54,308 new cases per day was logged over the past week, a rise from the prior week after months of rapidly declining case numbers.

What’s even more concerning: 27 states saw increases of more than 5%, even as the US appears on track to beat President Biden’s target as it reaches 2.5MM vaccinations per day.

The numbers arrive as NJ Gov Phil Murphy announces that he will pause the Garden State’s reopening just after raising indoor dining capacity (as well as capacity at gyms and other ‘recreational’ facilities) to 50%. NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio is urging Gov. Andrew Cuomo to do the same in NY (though we wouldn’t be surprised to see Cuomo’s political priorities get in the way).

After announcing plans to open vaccine access to those 50 and up, Cuomo said he has no plans to increase restaurant capacity.

Of particular concern is a jump in new cases reported in Michigan, where the CDC has projected that the more contagious and potentially more deadly B117 variant might be behind the surge. New cases are up by 50% compared with a week ago, with the average rising to 3K new cases per day.

Some health officials have said that the B117 variant could be what’s behind some particularly worrying surges seen in various states, including Michigan, where cases have risen dramatically in recent days. According to data from Johns Hopkins, Michigan is reporting an average of almost 3,000 new cases per day, up by about 50% from a week ago. And, as the NYT points out, new cases have more than doubled over the past 14 days.

Source: NYT

The rise comes after the Democratic-controlled state allowed restaurants to reopen for indoor dining on Feb. 1, pushed for schools to offer in-person learning by March 1, and eased restrictions on restaurants and gatherings earlier this month. The recent surge there even prompted Dr. Anthony Fauci to plead with Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer to “hold off for a bit” on the reopening plans. Though she isn’t the only blue-state governor who has been criticized for pushing ahead. Aside from Cuomo, Conn. Gov. Ned Lamont has also been criticized for signing off on reopening measures that went into effect last week.

All the while, the US is nearing the 30MM case mark. Although Brazil has surpassed the US in terms of daily new COVID cases and deaths, there’s still plenty of reason to panic. If America’s vaccination successes are driving deaths lower, then what’s driving all the positive tests? Are we certain it’s the variants, like Dr. Fauci believes?

Or might there be another explanation? Could nurses, teachers and others be testing positive ‘by accident’ after receiving the jab be contributing to the rising case numbers?

Take the case of Pakistan PM Imran Khan, who tested positive two days after being vaccinated. It was reported in the press that he may have been infected beforehand.

But if the vaccine contains the spike protein DNA…shouldn’t a positive test in the days after vaccination not be a surprise?

end

iv) Swamp commentaries

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

The budding Turkey crisis induced investors and traders to buy the dollar, US Treasuries and defensive plays, particularly tech stocks and Fangs.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index, an overlooked but reliable indicator, unexpectedly plummeted to -1.09 in February from 0.75; +0.72 was expected.  This is the first negative reading since April 2020 and the third largest decline since the Crisis of 2008-9.  March and April 2020 had much larger drops.

U.S. stocks closed higher Monday as bond yields retreated, giving investors some space to snap up tech shares that have seemed less attractive in the face of higher interest rates. https://t.co/VRddjxIzGr

A most trouble sign: U.S. Banks’ Loans Drop to Another Record Low as Deposits Surge

  • Loans up $41 billion in latest week; deposits up $103 billion
  • One-third of bank assets in cash, government-backed securities   

U.S. bank lending fell to a new low this month, as a cash-rich banking system continues its cautious approach to making new loanshttps://t.co/M3zZSaGszn

Unless Powell and Fed officials strong-arm big banks, they are not going to lend to zombie companies and hopelessly delinquent mortgage holders and other debtors.  No matter how many Biden Trillions appear, the US economy is going nowhere unless banks start lending.  Banks will be reluctant to lend when Team Biden is hiking taxes, re-regulating and implementing socialism.

Biden Team Preparing Up to $3 Trillion in New Spending for the Economy
A pair of proposals would invest in infrastructure, education, work force development and fighting climate change, with the aim of making the economy more productive.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/22/business/biden-infrastructure-spending.html

Monday’s King Report: Traders, barring monumental bad news, will buy an early decline.  Wise guys might buy ESMs well before the NYSE open because Powell speaks at 9:00 ET.

ESMs rallied modestly when the US repo market opened at 7 ET.  ESMs and some stocks surged after the NYSE opened for the reasons we noted in our Monday missive.  The rally persisted until the final hour.

ESMs peaked just after the final hour arrived.  ESMs and stocks declined until someone boosted ESMs modestly about 8 minutes before the NYSE close.

Nasdaq +1.09%; the Nasdaq 100 +1.71%; the NY Fang+ Index +1.32%; the DJIA +0.32%; DJTA -0.10% despite the CP acquisition of KSU; the Russell 2000 -0.91%; S&P 500 Index +0.70%.

Despite almost session-long buying, Stocks ended up mixed on Monday because recent economic data has been soft, banks are reluctant to lend but the people pulling Biden’s strings are proposing beaucoup fiscal stimulus.  As Larry Summers noted, the US will either get recession, stagflation or growth without inflation.  The market does not believe the latter is likely.

Chicago Teachers Union tells members not to reveal that they’ve been vaccinated so they can continue to work from home [This is the US now.] https://t.co/TVSsKgUVtw

Powell calls cryptocurrencies ‘not really useful stores of value’ and says Fed will move slowly
    Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said cryptocurrencies are primarily “a speculative asset.”
    He added that there’s no hurry to develop a central bank digital currency.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/22/cryptocurrencies-are-not-useful-stores-of-value-says-feds-powell.html

Powell calls cryptocurrencies ‘not really useful stores of value’ and says Fed will move slowly
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/22/cryptocurrencies-are-not-useful-stores-of-value-says-feds-powell.html

U.S. economy is ‘on the brink’ of a complete recovery, says Richmond Fed’s Barkin
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/22/richmond-feds-barkin-on-us-economic-recovery-potential-scarring.html

What’s a Powell speech without some virtue signaling, even while addressing the BIS?
Powell: Fed Focused on Bias in Algorithms Used by Banks – Bloomberg
Powell: Very Focused on Rise of AI That Discriminates in Financial Sector – DJ
@FinancialJuice: Fed’s Barkin: Retailers Are Already Seeing Things Flying Off the Shelves Because of Stimulus Checks

Fed’s Barkin says economy still short of bar for QE taper [Even with ‘things flying off the shelves?’]
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-fed-barkin/feds-barkin-says-economy-still-short-of-bar-for-qe-taper-idUSKBN2BE219

Barkin also did virtue signaling, asserting ‘climate change is a critical issue’ at a NABE virtual event.

Did Michigan cover up nursing home COVID deaths like New York?
Michigan Governor Whitmer may be in the same trouble that New York Governor Cuomo is dealing with after covering up COVID deaths.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2021/03/19/covering-up-nursing-home-covid-deaths-cuomo-whitmer-column/4723259001/

Leaked Docs Show Obama FTC Gave Google Its Monopoly After Google Execs Helped Obama Get Re-Elected – The FTC’s antitrust attorneys concluded that Google was breaking the law by “banishing potential competitors” with a series of exclusionary contracts on mobile phones — much of which forms the basis for the lawsuit brought nearly a decade later by the Trump Department of Justice. The FTC’s economists, however, demurred, insisting that claims of Google’s market dominance were unfounded and would soon give way to competition. This required a markedly un-curious treatment of key facts…
     Their top lobbyist Johanna Shelton darkened White House doors for more than 60 meetings. By April of 2016, according to another report, Shelton had notched 128 White House meetings.  Google has reportedly also attempted to dictate how the FTC discusses both the company and the dropped antitrust case…  https://thefederalist.com/2021/03/22/leaked-docs-show-obama-ftc-gave-google-its-monopoly-after-google-execs-helped-obama-get-re-elected/

A Taiwan Crisis May Mark the End of the American Empire
America is a diplomatic fox, while Beijing is a hedgehog fixated on the big idea of reunification.
“The fox knows many things, but the hedgehog knows one big thing.” Taiwan — remains Beijing’s No. 1 priority. History did not evolve in quite the way Kissinger had foreseen…Yet the balance of power has been transformed since 1971 — and much more profoundly than Kissinger could have foreseen…
    As Harvard University’s Graham Allison argued in his hugely influential book, “Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap?”, China’s economic rise — which was at first welcomed by American policymakers — was bound eventually to look like a threat to the U.S…
    The days of “win-win” diplomacy are long gone… That big thing may be that he who rules Taiwan rules the world.  https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-03-21/niall-ferguson-a-taiwan-crisis-may-end-the-american-empire

WSJ Editorial Board:  China’s Warning to Biden – A lecture in Alaska shows that adversaries sense U.S. weakness.  That was some tongue lashing a senior Chinese official delivered last week in Anchorage to top Biden Administration officials… This is the new reality in U.S.-China relations, as adversaries look to see if they can exploit President Biden as they did Barack Obama…  https://t.co/aruDp1tBzN

JFK Was Completely Unprepared for His Summit [June 1961] with Khrushchev
‘He just beat the hell out of me,’ Kennedy said. “Worst thing in my life,” Kennedy told a New York Times reporter. “He savaged me.”… “This man is very inexperienced, even immature,” Khrushchev told his interpreter. “Compared to him, Eisenhower is a man of intelligence and vision.”…
    Khrushchev’s aggression during the talks surprised Kennedy as well as Secretary of State Dean Rusk, who was shocked Khrushchev raised the possibility of war… Khrushchev “thought that anyone who was so young and inexperienced as to get into that mess [the Bay of Pigs] could be taken,” the president said. “And anyone who got into it and didn’t see it through had no guts. So he just beat the hell out of me.”…
    “I never met a man like this,” Kennedy remarked to another reporter, Hugh Sidey of Time magazine. “[I] talked about how a nuclear exchange would kill 70 million people in 10 minutes, and he just looked at me as if to say, ‘So what?’”…  Two months after the summit, the Soviets erected the Berlin Wall. Frederick Kempe, president and CEO of the Atlantic Council, argues in his book Berlin 1961 that Kennedy could have prevented this if he were tougher on Khrushchev in Vienna…
https://www.history.com/news/kennedy-krushchev-vienna-summit-meeting-1961

Kennedy’s back ailment was so painful that a special lift was needed to ascend him into Air Force One.

BBC: The Russian leader’s opinion of Kennedy resulted in Khrushchev forming an inaccurate view of the type of leader Kennedy was. This meant that Khrushchev was willing to take the risk of placing intermediate-range ballistic missiles on Cuba in 1962…Although this was used to create effective anti-communist propaganda, Kennedy did not take action over the building of the Berlin Wall. He criticised the construction but did not make a military response. This may have led Khrushchev to question whether Kennedy was likely to take any sort of military action in the future…
https://www.bbc.co.uk/bitesize/guides/zygjq6f/revision/5

“Now we have a problem in trying to make our power credible, and Vietnam looks like the place.” —President John Kennedy in a June 1961 interview with the New York Times reporter James Reston.
https://www.cfr.org/blog/vietnam-war-forty-quotes

Naomi Wolf: Biden ‘Struggling Physically’ a National Security Concern https://t.co/lVkfmOr3FI

Biden regularly consults with Barack Obama on a ‘range of issues’, Psaki says
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-white-house-communication-barack-obama

Bitcoin Rally Stirs BofA Alarm on ‘Enormous’ Surge in Energy Use [Huge carbon footprint]
The energy used by the network of computers that power the digital coin is comparable to that of many developed countries and rivals the emissions from major fossil-fuel users and producers… The level of emissions, which have risen alongside a spike in Bitcoin’s price, have grown by more than 40 million tons in the past two years. And when the digital asset is trading around $50,000 — which it’s done for much of this year — it uses about 0.4% of global energy consumption… https://t.co/eoIifu1kys

Fed Chair Powell: U.S. economy looks to be strengthening [After the close]
https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-fed-powell/fed-chair-powell-us-economy-looks-to-be-strengthening-idUSN9N2JO00E

U.S. House antitrust chairman plans multiple bills to go after Big Tech https://t.co/QbObQrUN5q

Well that is all for today

New emails heighten mystery around presidential vote count in Georgia’s largest county
Two separate sworn affidavits from Election Night poll workers claimed that, at roughly 10:30 p.m. on Nov. 3, an official directed workers to stop working and to return the next day at 8:30 a.m… Counting at the State Farm Arena, however, continued past 10:30 p.m. after most staffers had left
https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/elections/county-emails-georgia-fulton-state-farm%2C

Samantha Power Faces Opposition for USAID Post over Anti-Israel Record, ‘Unmasking’ https://t.co/D8EfDZYiVN

@SenatorHagerty: It appears Colin Kahl, President Biden’s nominee to be Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, disclosed classified information via his Twitter account. I’m seeking answers from @SASCDems and @SASCGOP.  https://twitter.com/SenatorHagerty/status/1373716614089179139?s=09

How the US military subverted the Afghan peace agreement to prolong an unpopular war
As Macgregor explained to The Grayzone, the order to withdraw was met with intense pressure from the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS), Gen. Mark M. Milley, which caused the president to capitulate. Trump agreed to withdraw only half of the 5,000 remaining troops in the country…
    The subversion of the peace agreement with the Taliban initiated by the US military leadership in Washington and Afghanistan began almost as soon as Trump’s personal envoy Zalmay Khalilzad negotiated a tentative deal in November 2019. The campaign to undermine presidential authority was actively supported by then-Secretary of Defense Mark Esper…
    Pentagon officials and military leadership exploited the open-ended terms of the ceasefire to derail the implementation of the agreement…The military’s plan to sabotage the agreement hinged on creating the false impression that the Taliban had reneged on its commitments. This ruse was advanced mostly publicly by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Defense Secretary Esper…
https://thegrayzone.com/2021/03/16/trump-us-military-peace-agreement-war-afghanistan/

CHICAGO POLICE OFFICER SHOT, 3RD OFFICER SHOT THIS WEEK
Why are Democrat cities such disasters?  [City officials & DAs won’t enforce the law or jail thugs]
https://www.robmaness.com/2021/03/chicago-police-officer-shot-3rd-officer-shot-this-week/

Manhattan subway shovings on pace to more than double in 2021: DA Vance https://t.co/Ddvcb7citX

@WhitlockJason: BLM has raised $100 million, spawned influencers with major media platforms, has the NFL and NBA airing sympathetic national TV commercials on a constant loop and promoting BLM on court and field. Name the equivalent group working to stop gangs and inner-city violence?

@JMichaelWaller: Chinese military is whipping up news of anti-Asian attacks in the US for its own propaganda. This piece is on the PLA website from the CCP’s People’s Daily:

Anti-Asian crime: a plague the U.S. fails to address    http://eng.chinamil.com.cn/view/2021-03/2

Georgia officer relieved as spokesman after media falsely suggest he sympathized with suspected Atlanta shooter [This is the US now!]    https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/georgia-cop-relieved-as-spokesman-after-media-falsely-suggest-he-sympathized-with-suspected-atlanta-shooter

@CBSNews: Biden: “Too many Asian Americans have been walking up and down the streets and worrying. Waking up each morning the past year feeling their safety and the safety of their loved ones are stake. They’ve been attacked, blamed, scapegoated and harassed.” https://cbsn.ws/3eWVxMx

Biden, Dems and the MSM are trying to blame violence against Asians on Trump and white supremacists.

VP Harris takes apparent swipe at Trump for rise in attacks on Asian Americans
https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/all-things-trump/biden-harris-suggest-former-president-trump-blame-rise-attacks

Anti-Asian violence can’t be blamed on Trump supporters
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/anti-asian-violence-cant-be-blamed-on-trump-supporters

@RealKiraDavis: The tension bw Black/Asian communities is something that is well known to most us in those communities. Ppl on social media who are making this about white supremacy most likely have little connection to our communities anymore. The reality has been this stark for a while.

Korean immigrants bought the cheapest big-city real estate available, which was often in depressed areas.  This created tension between Korean business owners and black residents: Korean bodegas in NYC, Vietnamese & Korean shops in LA (Rodney King riots), certain big-city Chinatowns that abut tough neighborhoods, Asians that are discriminated against in college admissions, etc.

SF Board Member Claimed ‘White Supremacy Thinking’ Abounds Among Asian Americans, Now She Faces Resignation Demands [A reason that some blacks are at odds with Asians.]
“Board Vice President Alison Collins, elected in 2018, said in a thread of tweets on Dec. 4, 2016, that Asian Americans had used ‘white supremacist thinking to assimilate and ‘get ahead,’” the San Francisco Chronicle reported. “Collins explained in the thread that she was seeking to ‘combat anti-black racism in the Asian community’ and ‘at my daughters’ mostly Asian Am school.’”..
https://beckernews.com/sf-board-member-claimed-white-supremacy-thinking-abounds-among-asian-americans-now-she-faces-resignation-demands-37928/

@JennaEllisEsq: Everything is racist now. Including college admissions recommendations.

NBC: This college admissions season, let’s end the odious, racist practice of recommendations
I long for a day when my work can speak for itself, when I can simply apply for whatever I want without having to ask anyone else to vouch for me.
https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/college-admissions-season-let-s-end-odious-racist-practice-recommendations-ncna1261570

Cigna’s critical race theory training: Don’t say ‘brown bag lunch’ and be mindful of ‘religious privilege’  https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/cigna-critical-race-theory-training-dont-say-brown-bag-lunch-mindful-religious-privilege

There have been umpteen research pieces over the past several decades that conclusively show that forced integration and diversity training only make racial tension worse.  However, people and corporations keep doing it.  Why?  Virtue signaling?  Self-aggrandizement?  Inoculation against SJWs?

How bad is it? Even Bill Maher says the left is segregationisthttps://t.co/dX4xvXDSMM

Lecturer fired for ‘aggressive’ use of question marks gets $20K payout https://t.co/R6jU3rZbNi

More disgusting MSM behavior: Fox’s Faulkner: “Most ex-presidents do not weigh in at this level. Why did you feel like you needed to?”  Trump: “You called me; I didn’t call you, in all fairness.”
https://t.co/DMfQeb44XB

@TomJipping: Barack Obama now calls the filibuster a “Jim Crow relic” but he had no problem voting to filibuster dozens of bills when he was a Senator. Here’s the storyhttps://t.co/VndssMx6qW

US has secret evidence of UFOs breaking sound barrier without a sonic boom and performing moves humans don’t have the technology for, Former Director of National Intelligence John Ratcliffe reveals ahead of bombshell real X Files report
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9387129/amp/There-lot-sightings-public-Anticipation-mounts-ahead-UFO-report.html

The most dangerous man, to any government, is the man who is able to think things out for himself, without regard to the prevailing superstitions and taboos. Almost inevitably, he comes to the conclusion that the government he lives under is dishonest, insane & intolerable, and so, if he is a romantic, he tries to change it. And even if he is not romantic personally, he is very apt to sprea

I will see you WEDNESDAY night.

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