MARCH 31//FIRST DAY NOTICE/GOLD UP $28.80 TO $1714.50//SILVER UP 37 CENTS TO $24.48//INITIAL STANDING FOR SILVER APRIL: 14.565 MILLION OZ//INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD 78 TONNES//CORONAVIRUS UPDATES//VACCINE UPDATES//CHINA BULLIES GERMAN PUBLISHER ON THE ORIGINS OF CORONAVIRUS//CHINA REJECTS CRITICAL WHO REPORT ON ORIGINS OF THE CORONAVIRUS//MAERSK SUSPENDS SHORT TERM BOOKINGS DUE TO SUEZ MISHAP//ADP PRIVATE PAYROLLS REPORT FALL BADLY//PENDING HOME SALES COLLAPSE IN FEB//BIDEN DETAILS PART A OF INFRASTRUCTURE PLAN WITH $2.25 TRILLION IN SPENDING AND HUGE TAX HIKES//TRUMP ANGRY AT THIS//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

GOLD:$1714.50 UP  $28.80   The quote is London spot price

Silver:$24.48 UP  $0.37   London spot price ( cash market)

your data…

 

Closing access prices:  London spot

i)Gold : $1708.50 LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

ii)SILVER:  $24.42//LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

PLATINUM AND PALLADIUM PRICES BY KITCO

PLATINIUM  $1182.00 UP $32.00

PALLADIUM: 2528.00 UP $32. PER OZ

 

James McShirley on the pricing of gold eagles/and silver eagle33

Even the TV pundits are now asking, without bothering to investigate, “what’s wrong with gold?” Yes indeed, what’s wrong with gold, other than a relentless daily cartel assault on PAPER gold. The physical coin premiums are widening out to spot. Gold Eagles are showing $200+ to spot, Silver Eagles $10+ to spot, if you can even find them. Supply and demand- fuggettaboutit. The more dollars printed the more valuable they become, and the more scarce gold and silver are the lower their prices go, so sayeth the Working Group.

Jim McShirley

Editorial of The New York Sun | February 1, 2021

end

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COMEX DATA

 
 
 

COMEX DATA

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

receiving today 10,340/16,868 

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: APRIL 2021 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,683.900000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 03/30/2021 DELIVERY DATE: 04/01/2021
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
072 C GOLDMAN 840
072 H GOLDMAN 8900 4049
167 C MAREX 2
190 H BMO CAPITAL 3006
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 67
624 C BOFA SECURITIES 4
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 191
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 953 335
657 H MORGAN STANLEY 1583
661 C JP MORGAN 10309
661 H JP MORGAN 31
685 C RJ OBRIEN 17
686 C STONEX FINANCIA 182
690 C ABN AMRO 6
709 C BARCLAYS 432 1249
732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 1153 6
737 C ADVANTAGE 19
800 C MAREX SPEC 100
880 C CITIGROUP 4
880 H CITIGROUP 172
905 C ADM 1 125
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 16,868 16,868
MONTH TO DATE: 16,868

ISSUED: 0

Goldman Sachs:  stopped:  0

 
 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  APRIL. CONTRACT: 16,868 NOTICE(S) FOR 1,686,800 OZ  (52.466 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  16,868 NOTICES FOR 1,686800 OZ  (52.466 tonnes) 

SILVER//APRIL CONTRACT

 

1693 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 8,465,000  OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month: 1693 for 8,465.000  oz

BITCOIN MORNING QUOTE  $57,908   UP 1408

BITCOIN AFTERNOON QUOTE.:  $59,027 UP 2527 DOLLARS  

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

GLD AND SLV INVENTORIES:

GLD AND SLV INVENTORIES:

Gold

WITH GOLD UP $28.80  AND NO PHYSICAL TO BE FOUND ANYWHERE:

WITH ALL REFINER CLOSED//MEXICO ORDERING ALL MINES SHUT:   WHERE ARE THEY GETTING THE “PHYSICAL?STRANGE!

A  SMALL  CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//:  A PAPER  DEPOSIT OF 0.88 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD FROM GLD.

WITH RESPECT TO GLD WITHDRAWALS: 

GOLD IS “RETURNED” TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHO ARE CALLING IN THEIR LEASES: THE GOLD NEVER LEAVES THE B OF ENGLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BANK IS PROTECTING ITSELF IN CASE OF COMMERCIAL FAILURE

THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD!!

GLD: 1,037.50 TONNES OF GOLD//

Silver

AND WITH NO SILVER AROUND  TODAY: WITH SILVER UP 37 CENTS

A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A DEPOSIT OF .417 MILLION OZ  FROM THE SLV/

WITH REGARD TO SILVER WITHDRAWALS FROM THE SLV:

THE SILVER WITHDRAWALS ARE ACTUALLY “RETURNED” TO JPM, AS JPMORGAN CALLS IN ITS LEASES WITH THE SLV FUND.  (THE STORY IS THE SAME AS THE BANK OF ENGLAND’S GOLD). THE SILVER NEVER LEAVES JPMORGAN’S VAULTS. THEY ARE CALLING IN THEIR LEASES FOR FEAR OF SOLVENCY ISSUES.

INVENTORY RESTS AT:

: 579.022  MILLION OZ./SLV

xxxxx

GLD closing price//NYSE 160.01 UP $2.44 OR  1.55%

XXXXXXXXXXXXX

SLV closing price NYSE 22.69 UP $0.43 OR 1.93%

 

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

 
 

 

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Let us have a look at the data for today

THE COMEX OI IN SILVER FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 1104 CONTRACTS FROM 156,091 DOWN TO 154,987, AND FURTHER FROM THE NEW RECORD OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020. THE LOSS IN OI OCCURRED WITH OUR  $0.62 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX  ON TUESDAY. IT SEEMS THAT THE LOSS IN COMEX OI IS  DUE TO A HUMONGOUS BANKER AND ALGO  SHORT COVERING !//HUGE REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//.. COUPLED AGAINST HUMONGOUS EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. WE ALSO  HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AS WE GAINED 1181 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. 

 

WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A POWERFUL  NUMBER OF  COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 2225,, AS WE HAD THE FOLLOWING ISSUANCE:  MARCH  0 MAY:  2225 AND ZERO ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE 2225 CONTRACTS. THE BANKERS ARE NOW BEING BITTEN BY THOSE SERIAL FORWARDS (EFP’S CIRCULATING IN LONDON)AS THEY ARE NOW BEING EXERCISED AND COMING BACK TO NEW YORK FOR REDEMPTION OF METAL.  THE COST TO SERVICE THESE SERIAL FORWARDS IS HIGH TO OUR BANKERS  BUT THEY HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO ISSUE A FEW OF THEM!

HISTORY OF SILVER OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR THE PAST 33 MONTHS.

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

7.32     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

2.630     MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOV.

20.970   MILLION OZ  FINAL STANDING IN DEC

2020

5.075     MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JAN

1.480    MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN FEB

23.005  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAR** 

4.660  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR APRIL****

45.220 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAY***

2.205  MILLION OF FINAL STANDING FOR JUNE

86.470 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JULY…RECORD HIGHEST EVER

6.475 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN AUGUST

55.400 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN SEPT

8.900 MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT.

3.950 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN NOV.

46.685 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR DEC.

2021

6.890 MILLION FINAL STANDING FOR JAN 2021

12.020  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR FEB 2021

58.425 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MARCH 2021//2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED

14.555 MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING FOR APRIL

 

TUESDAY, AGAIN OUR CROOKS USED COPIOUS PAPER TRYING TO LIQUIDATE SILVER’S PRICE …AND THEY WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN ,(IT FELL BY $0.62)OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE ANY SILVER LONGS AS EVEN THOUGH WE HAD A NET GAIN OF 1121 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES, THE MAJOR CAUSE WAS DUE TO i)HUMONGOUS BANKER/ALGO SHORT COVERING// WE ALSO HAD  ii)STRONG REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//.    iii)  A HUMONGOUS ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS 2) A STRONG INITIAL STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER  // APRIL//14.555 MILLION OZ, iv) STRONG COMEX OI LOSS AND iv) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION //.YOU CAN BET THE FARM THAT OUR BANKERS  ARE DESPERATE TO LIQUIDATE THEIR HUGE SHORT POSITIONS IN SILVER..

NOBODY LEFT THE SILVER ARENA WITH TODAY’S RAID/

 

 
 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

MAR

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY /FOR MONTH OF MAR:

20,690 CONTRACTS (FOR 23 TRADING DAY(S) TOTAL 20,960 CONTRACTS) OR 103.450 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 8995 CONTRACTS OR 4.497 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF MAR: 103.450 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON.

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF MAR:  103.450 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON.

JAN EFP ACCUMULATION FINAL:  113.735 MILLION OZ

FEB EFP ACCUMULATION FINAL:   208.18 MILLION OZ (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

MAR EFP ACCUMULATION SO FAR: A STRONG: 103.450 MILLION OZ  (DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//FEARS OF EFP CONTRACTS BEING EXERCISED FOR METAL)

RESULT: WE HAD A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1104, WITH OUR STRONG $0.62 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ///TUESDAY .…THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A POWERFUL SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 2225 CONTRACTS WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS.

TODAY WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 1121 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES (DESPITE OUR  $0.62 LOSS IN PRICE)//THE DOMINANT FEATURE TODAY WAS THE MASSIVE BANKER SHORTCOVERING.THEY SEE THE TEA LEAVES FORMING AND THEY ARE GETTING OUT OF DODGE IN A BIG WAY…TOO MANY WISH TO STAND FOR DELIVERY…

THE TALLY//EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

i.e  2225 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s)TOGETHER WITH A STRONG SIZED DECREASE OF 1104 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND HAPPENED WITH OUR $0.62 LOSS IN PRICE OF SILVER/AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $24.11//TUESDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY. 

FOR THE NEW APRIL.  DELIVERY MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 2XXX NOTICE(S) FOR XXX, OZ OF SILVER.

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018. AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.70//TODAY’S RECORD OF 244,705 WAS SET WITH A PRICE OF: 18.91 (FEB 25/2020)

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 
 
 
 

GOLD

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 1566 CONTRACTS TO 467,321,AND FURTHER FROM OUR NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE SMALL  DECREASE IN COMEX OI OCCURRED DESPITE OUR STRONG FALL IN PRICE  OF $28.20///COMEX GOLD TRADING//TUESDAY.AS IN SILVER WE MUST HAVE HAD STRONG BANKER/ALGO SHORT COVERING ACCOMPANYING OUR HUMONGOUS SIZED EXCHANGE FOR  PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AS WE HAD A STRONG GAIN OF 6738 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.  WE ALSO HAD A VERY STRONG INITIAL STANDING OF GOLD AT THE COMEX OF 77.972 TONNES 

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $28.20 WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD A VOLUME OF 0    4 -GC CONTRACTS//OPEN INTEREST  0//

WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 5076 OI CONTRACTS (15.79 TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES 

 

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A HUMONGOUS SIZED 6632 CONTRACTS:

CONTRACT . FEB:0,  APRIL:  1900 AND JUNE:  4732  ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO//TOTAL: 6632.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 467,321. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EXCHANGE DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 5076 CONTRACTS: 1556 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 6632 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 5076 CONTRACTS OR 15.79 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A HUMONGOUS SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (6738) ACCOMPANYING THE SMALL SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI  (1566 OI): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES:  5076CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1 ) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AS OUR BANKERS ARE RUNNING FROM DODGE AND CONSIDERABLE ALGO SHORT COVERING ,2.) HUGE INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR THE FRONT APRIL. MONTH  AT 77.956 TONNES)  3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION,  /// ;4) SMALL COMEX OI LOSS AND 5) HUMONGOUS ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL  ...ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR STRONG LOSS IN GOLD PRICE TRADING TUEDAY//$28.20!!. 

 

We have now switched to GOLD for our spreaders!!

 

FOR DETAILS ON THE SPREADING EXERCISE HERE IS A BRIEF OUTLINE:

 

SPREADING OPERATIONS/NOW SWITCHING TO SILVER  (WE SWITCH OVER TO GOLD ON NOV  1)

SPREADING OPERATION FOR OUR NEWCOMERS:

FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS:

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED IN GOLD  AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF APRIL.

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEW, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE SPREADERS AND THE CRIMINAL ELEMENT BEHIND IT:

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

 

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR GOLD..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR GOLD.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

.

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO GOLD AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAR. HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL FOR SILVER:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF MAR. BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN GOLD WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (APRIL), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

 
 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2021 INCLUDING TODAY

MAR

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF MAR : 88,895, CONTRACTS OR 8,889,500 oz OR 276.50 TONNES (23 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 3739 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 23 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 276.50 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2020, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 276.50/3550 x 100% TONNES =7.78% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO DATE:
 
 
JANUARY: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)
 
FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..
 
 
MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN///IT SURPASSED JANUARY!!)

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 1104 CONTRACTS FROM 156,091 DOWN TO 154,987 AND FURTHER FROM OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 3/4 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

THE STRONG SIZED LOSS IN OI SILVER COMEX WAS PRIMARILY DUE TO; 1) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING//ALGO SHORT COVERING//REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING , 2) A HUGE ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (SEE BELOW), 3) A STRONG INITIAL IN  STANDING FOR SILVER  AT THE COMEX FOR APRIL AT 14.555 MILLION OZ//., AND 4) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION,

EFP ISSUANCE 2225 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 MARCH:  0 ; MAY: 2225 AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2225 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI LOSS OF 1104 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 2225 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 1121 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 5.605 MILLION  OZ, OCCURRED DESPITE OUR $0.62 LOSS IN PRICE///

 

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL..THE EVIDENCE IS CLEAR: HUGE AMOUNTS OF PHYSICAL STANDING FOR BOTH  SILVER AND GOLD .

 

(report Harvey)

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)WEDNESDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 14.76 PTS OR .43%   //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 199.15 PTS OR 0.70%    /The Nikkei closed DOWN 253.94 POINTS OR 0.86%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.68%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP AT 6.5515 /Oil UP TO 60.73 dollars per barrel for WTI and 64.16 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.5515. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.5618 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS //TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED//CORONAVIRUS/PANDEMIC/TRUMP TESTS POSITIVE FOR COVID 19  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 
 
 
 

COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL  BY SMALL SIZED 1566 CONTRACTS TO 467,321 MOVING FURTHER FROM  THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020).  AND THIS SMALL COMEX DECREASE OCCURRED DESPITE OUR STRONG LOSS OF $28.20 IN GOLD PRICING TUESDAY’S COMEX TRADING…WE ALSO HAD A STRONG EFP ISSUANCE (6632 CONTRACTS). .AS THEY WERE PAID OFF NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY.

WE HAVE ALSO  LATELY WITNESSED  EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL….. AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS.

(SEE BELOW)

WE  HAD 0    4 -GC VOLUME//open interest REMAINS AT   0

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 6632 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  ;  AND APRIL:  1900, JUNE:  4732 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 6632  CONTRACTS.

YOU WILL FIND THAT WHEN WE HAVE A GOOD PREMIUM IN THE FUTURES/SPOT, THEN THE NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS DECLINE IN NUMBERS.  THE COST IS JUST TOO MUCH FOR THEM TO ISSUE. TODAY THAT PREMIUM WAS SMALL AND THUS A LITTLE MORE THAN USUAL OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WERE ISSUED.

HOWEVER, WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION, THE OPPOSITE IS TRUE. EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. LONDON IS OUT OF METAL.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A STRONG SIZED 5076  TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 6632 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE LOST A TINY SIZED  COMEX OI  OF 1566 CONTRACTS.WE HAVE A HUGE AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR APRIL  (77.956 TONNES) WHICH FOLLOWS MARCH:  (30.205 TONNES) WHICH FOLLOWED FEB (113.424 TONNES)  WHICH FOLLOWED OUR STRONG LEVEL OF JAN 2021 GOLD . ((6.500 TONNES).  

THE BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWER56G GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT FELL $28.20)., AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING ANY LONGS AS WE HAD A HUGE NET GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 6738 CONTRACTS.  THE TOTAL GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES REGISTERED  15.79 TONNES TONNES, ACCOMPANYING OUR STRONG GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR APRIL (77.972 TONNES)..I  STRONGLY BELIEVE THAT 0UR BANKER FRIENDS ARE GETTING QUITE NERVOUS.  THE SMALL LOSS IN COMEX OI IS DUE TO BANKER SHORT COVERING IN A BIG WAY.  THEY ARE LOOKING OVER THEIR SHOULDERS AND WITNESSING MASSIVE SILVER/GOLD SHORTAGES THAT CANNOT BE COVERED. THEY ARE TRYING TO FLEE IN HASTE “FROM DODGE”. 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES :: 5076 CONTRACTS OR  507,600 OZ OR  15.79  TONNES

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT COMMODITY FUTURES OPEN INTEREST SHOULD APPROXIMATE 3% OF TOTAL PRODUCTION.  IN GOLD THE WORLD PRODUCES AROUND 3500 TONNES PER YEAR BUT ONLY 2200 TONNES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE WEST (THUS EXCLUDING RUSSIA, CHINA ETC..WHO KEEP 100% OF THEIR PRODUCT.
 
THUS IN GOLD WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:  467,321 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS X 100 OZ PER CONTRACT = 46.73 MILLION OZ/32,150 OZ PER TONNE =  1453 TONNES

 

THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST REPRESENTS 1453/2200 OR 66.06% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF GOLD.

 
 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX GOLD TODAY:196,813 contracts// volume  poor/   //

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  258,714 contracts//  volume:  poor// //most of our traders have left for London

 

MARCH 31 /2021

 
INITIAL STANDINGS FOR APRIL COMEX GOLD
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
 
 
5000.19 oz
 

Malca
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz       81,020.52 oz//                2520 kilobars                                                        

 

Deposit to the Customer Inventory, in oz
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
nil
oz
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
No of oz served (contracts) today
16,868  notice(s)
1,686,800 OZ
(52.466 TONNES
 
No of oz to be served (notices)
8195 contracts
(820,000oz)
 
25.509 TONNES
 
 
 
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
16,868 notices
1,686800 OZ
52.466 TONNES
 
 
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz
 

We had 1 deposit into the dealer

i) one deposit into the dealer Brinks
81,020.52 tonnes
(2520 kilobars)
 
 
 
total deposit:  81,020.52   oz
 
 
 

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had 0 deposits into the customer account
 
 
 
TOTAL DEPOSITS: nil oz
 
 
 
 
 
 
We had 1 withdraw
 
 
i) out of Manfra:  5000.19 oz
 
 
 
 
 
 
total withdrawals:  5000.19 oz
 
 
net 2.35 tonnes “enters”
kilobar entries are fake!
 
 
 
 

We had 1  kilobar transactions (1 out of 2 transactions)

ADJUSTMENTS  0: 

 

 

 
 

The front month of APRIL registered a total of 25.063 CONTRACTS.  Thus by definition the initial amount of gold that will stand in this very active month of April is as follows:

25,068 contracts x  100 oz per contract  =   2,506,300 oz or 77.956 tonnes

We had a huge EFP issuance today of 6632 contracts as these guys were bought off not to take delivery.

the comex is  one massive fraud.!

 
 
 
 

MAY GAINED 314 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 1771

JUNE GAINED 14,769 CONTRACTS UP TO 370,233

We had 16,868 notice(s) filed today for 1,686,800 oz

FOR THE APRIL 2021 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and  0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 10,340  contract(s) of which31  notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 10,309 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notices received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the APRIL /2021. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (16,868) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  (APRIL:  25,063 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today 16,868 x 100 oz per contract) equals 2,506,300 OZ OR 77.956 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this  active month of MAR

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the APRIL contract month:

No of notices filed so far 16,868 x 100 oz  + (25,068 OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (16868} x 100 oz which equals 2,506,300 oz standing OR 77.956 TONNES in this  active delivery month of APRIL. This is a HUGE/ATMOSPHERIC amount standing for GOLD IN APRIL, A GENERALLY STRONG ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH. THE TONNAGE AT THE COMEX WOULD HAVE BEEN 20 TONNES HIGHER IF THEY DID NOT PAY OFF THE EFP’S NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY AT THE COMEX.

 WHAT IS CLEAR IS THIS: NOBODY LEFT THE GOLD ARENA TONIGHT DESPITE THE HUGE  FALL IN PRICE.

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

464,420.335, oz NOW PLEDGED  march 5/2021/HSBC  13.626 TONNES

351,292.365 PLEDGED  MANFRA 10.92 TONNES

312,798.505 oz  JPM  9.72 TONNES

1,083,680.877 oz pledged June 12/2020 Brinks/33.706 TONNES

94,500.934 oz Pledged August 21/regular account 2.93 tonnes JPMORGAN

6,308.08 oz International Delaware:  .196 tonnes

192.906 oz Malca

total pledged gold:  2,313,193.997 oz                                     71.95 tonnes

 

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES…. WE HAVE 484.41 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS i.e. 77.972 tonnes

CALCULATION OF REGISTERED THAT CAN BE SETTLED UPON:

total registered or dealer  17,968,062.163 oz or 558.88 tonnes
 
 
total weight of pledged:  2,313,193.997 oz or 71.95 tonnes
 
 
thus:
 
registered gold that can be used to settle upon: 15,654,869.0 (486,93 tonnes) 
 
 
 
 
true registered gold  (total registered – pledged tonnes  15,654,869.0 (486.93 tonnes)
 
total eligible gold: 19,071,060.983 oz   (593.19 tonnes)
 
 
total registered, pledged  and eligible (customer) gold 37,039,123.146 oz or 1,152.07 tonnes (INCLUDES 4 GC GOLD)
 
 

total 4 GC gold:   126.34 tonnes

total gold net of 4 GC:  1025.73 tonnes

A  net total of 2.36 tonnes of gold “enters” the COMEX today.

end

I have compiled  data with respect to registered (or dealer) gold taken on first day notice for each of the past 24 months

The data begins on first day notice for the May month taken on the last day of July 2018. and it continues to present day.

I then took, how many deliveries were recorded by the CME for each and every month.  I also included for reference the price of gold on first day notice.

The first graph is a logarithmic  graph and the second graph, linear.

You can see the huge explosion of registered gold at the comex along with deliveries.

 
 
THE DATA AND GRAPHS:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
END

 

 
 
MARCH 31/2021

And now for the wild silver comex results

 
 

And now for the wild silver comex results

INITIAL STANDING FOR SILVER/APRIL

APRIL. SILVER COMEX CONTRACT MONTH//INITIAL STANDING

Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
625,365.250 oz
 
 
JPM
Delaware
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
259,175.260 oz
CNT
Delaware
 
 
 
whatever enters the comex faults
leaves
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
No of oz served today (contracts)
1693
 
CONTRACT(S)
(8,465,000 OZ)
 
No of oz to be served (notices)
1220 contracts
 6,100,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  1693 contracts

 

8,465,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
 
We had 0 deposit into the dealer
 
 
 
 

total dealer deposits: nil        oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had  2 deposit into the customer account (ELIGIBLE ACCOUNT)

i) Into Delaware: 89,859.290 oz
ii) Into CNT:  160,315.970 oz
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

JPMorgan now has 188.589 million oz of  total silver inventory or 50.94% of all official comex silver. (188.589 million/370.156 million

total customer deposits today: 55,333.607   oz

we had 2 withdrawals:

 
 
i) out of Delaware  55,056.05 oz
ii) Out of Loomis: 1,088,315.890 oz
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

total withdrawals 625,365.250 oz   oz

We had 0 adjustments:

 

 

Total dealer(registered) silver: 126.803-million oz

total registered and eligible silver:  370.156 million oz

a net 0.366 million oz leaves the comex silver vaults.

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The month of April saw a strong 2913 contracts standing for delivery.
Thus by definition, the initial amount of silver oz standing in this non active delivery month of April is as follows;
 
2913 notices xx 5000 oz per notice =  14.565 million oz of silver.
The amount would have been much higher but again we had a monstrous EFP issuance of 2225 contracts (11.125 million oz). These guys as in gold were paid off handsomely not to take delivery at the comex 
 

 

May LOST A VERY SMALL 2057 contracts to stand at  119,708 contracts. May is the next active month and it seems the cavalry are showing up for physical silver as well. Thus we have April, a non active month having an initial 14.565 million oz stand and May with open interest refusing to buckle. 

 

To give you an idea of the strength of the May contract, let us compare the open interest remaining today vs last year. At this same time, we had 79,477 oi contracts still outstanding on the May 2020.  This year:  119,708  still outstanding!!.

 

IT LOOKS LIKE WE HAVE OUR WHALE STANDING FOR SILVER METAL.  ERIC SPROTT’S FUND HAS NOTIFIED THE SEC THAT THEY ARE DOING A SHELF OFFERING OF $2 BILLION FOR SPROTT SILVER PHYSICAL FUNDS  (PSLV). IS ERIC TAKING ON THE CROOKS BY STANDING FOR METAL IN APRIL AND MAY?

 

The total number of notices filed today for APRIL 2021. contract month represented by 20 contract(s) FOR  100,000 oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in APRIL. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at  1693 x 5,000 oz = 8,465,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of APRIL (2913) and the number of notices served upon today 1693 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the April standings for silver for the APRIL/2021 contract month: 1693 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of APRIL 2913- number of notices served upon today (1693) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the Jan contract month .equals 14.565 oz. ..VERY STRONG FOR A NON ACTIVE APRIL MONTH. 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME 65,051 CONTRACTS // volume extremely poor// volumes falling off a cliff// very 

 

FOR YESTERDAY  79,749  ,CONFIRMED VOLUME/poor

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV  FALLS TO +0.05% ((MAR 31/2021)

2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV FALLS TO –1.50% to NAV:   (MAR 31/2021 )

Note: /Sprott physical gold trust is back into POSITIVE/0.05%(MAR 31/2021)

(courtesy Sprott/GATA

3. SPROTT CEF .A   FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 18.41 TRADING 17.65//NEGATIVE 4.15

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/(this vehicle is a fraud as there is no gold behind them!)

MARCH 31/WITH GOLD UP $28.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1037.50 TONNES

MARCH 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $28.20 TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD… A DEPOSIT OF .88 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1037.50TONNES

MARCH 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $20.00 TODAY//A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.41 TONNES FROM THE GLD..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1036.62 TONNES

MARCH 26/WITH GOLD UP $7.00 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1043.03 TONNES

MARCH//25: WITH GOLD DOWN $7.75 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.33 TONNES//GOLD REST AT 1043.03 TONNES

MARCH 24//WITH GOLD UP $7.75 TODAY://A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.42 TONNES OF GOLD: THIS GOLD IS BEING RETURNED TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND ON A PHONY LEASE SCAM//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1045.36 TONNES.

MARCH 23/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.65 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1051.78 TONNES

MARCH 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.90 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.5 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1051.78 TONNES

MARCH 19/WITH GOLD UP $8.60 , NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1048.28 TONNES

MARCH 18/WITH GOLD UP $5.40 TODAY, A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.04 TONNES FROM THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1048.28 TONNES

MARCH 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.65 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.32 TONNES

MARCH 16/WITH GOLD UP $2.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.75 MILLION OZ FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.32 TONNES

MARCH 15/WITH GOLD UP $8.85 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.25 TONNES OF GOLD FORM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.07 TONNES

MARCH 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.25 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A REMOVAL OF 4.96 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1055.27 TONNES

MARCH 11/WITH GOLD UP $1.25 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.75 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1060.23 TONNES

MARCH 10/WITH GOLD UP $4.70 TODAY: ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.46 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1061.98 TONNES

MARCH 9/WITH GOLD UP $37.40 TODAY: ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 5.82 TONNES FORM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1063.44 TONNES

MARCH 8/WITH GOLD  DOWN $21.00  TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 9.04 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1069.26 TONNES

MARCH 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $15.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.08 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1078.30 TONNES

MARCH 4/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.60 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1082.38 TONNES

MARCH 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $17.70 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.62 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1087.12 TONNES

MARCH 2/WITH GOLD UP $9.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WHOPPING WITHDRAWAL OF 9.04 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1084.50 TONNES

MARCH 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.65 DOLLARS; A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.7 TONNES FROM THE GLD//.INVENTORY RESTS AT 1093.54 TONNES.

FEB 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $46.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.08 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1100.24 TONNES//

FEB 25/ WITH GOLD DOWN $20.65 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.08 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY REST AT 1106.36 TONNES

FEB 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.30 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.96 TONNES FROM THE GLD// RESTS AT 1110.44 TONNES

FEB 23/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.45 TODAY: A MONSTROUS CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 12.54 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1115.40 TONNES

FEB 22/WITH GOLD UP $30.00 TODAY: STRANGE!! A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.25 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1127.64 TONNES

FEB 19/WITH GOLD UP $2.00 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1132.89 TONNES

FEB 18//WITH GOLD UP $2.60 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.79 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1132.89 TONNES

FEB 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $27.35 TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.54 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1136.68 TONNES

FEB 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $23.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORYRESTS AT 1142.20 TONNES

FEB 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.38 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1142.20 TONNES

FEB 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $15.35 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/I: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1146.60 TONNES

FEB 10/WITH GOLD UP $5.30 TODAY: ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.09 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1148.34 TONNES

FEB 9/WITH GOLD UP $4.00 TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.08 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1152.43 TONNES.

FEB 8/WITH GOLD UP $20.80 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.33 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1156.51 TONNES

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Inventory rests tonight at:

 

MARCH 31 / GLD INVENTORY 1037.50 tonnes

LAST;  1030 TRADING DAYS:   +103.69 TONNES HAVE BEEN ADDED THE GLD

LAST 930 TRADING DAYS// +  288.17TONNES  HAVE NOW  BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY

end

Now the SLV Inventory/(this vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them!)

MARCH 31/WITH SILVER UP 37 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 579.022 MILLION OZ

MARCH 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 62 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A DEPOSIT OF 417,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY REST AT 579.022 MILLION OZ..

MARCH 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 578.605 MILLION OZ.

MARCH 26/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY: TWO HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.042 MILLION OZ AT 3 PM AND ANOTHER AT 5.20 PM:  1.949 MILLION OZ /INVENTORY RESTS AT 578.605 MILLION OZ

MARCH 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.253 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 582.596 MILLION OZ

MARCH 24//WITH SILVER UP 1 CENT TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 585.846 MILLION OZ./

MARCH 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 55 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 585.846 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 50 CENTS TODAY,TWO HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.486 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLVAT 3 PM AND ANOTHER 2.599 MILLION OZ WITHRAWWAL AT 5:20 ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 585.846 MILLION OZ/ (TOTAL SILVER LEAVING 4.085 MILLION OZ)

MARCH 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY REST AT 589.931 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 18/WITH SILVER UP 28 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; AT 3 PM: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.507 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 589.931 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 17/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 592.438 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 592.438 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 15/WITH SILVER UP 35 CENTS TODAY: NO  CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 592.438 MILLION OZ///

MARCH 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 592.438 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 11/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 592.438 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY; ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 928,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 592.438 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 9/WITH SILVER UP 91 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 593.366  MILLION OZ///

MARCH 8/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.25 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 593.366 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 31 CENTS TODAY: TWO HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.501 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV AT 3 PM AND ANOTHER 3.90 MILION OZ AT 5.20..: TOTAL LOSSS 10.4 MILLLLION OZ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 596.616 MILLION OZ

MARCH 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 76 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.486 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 609.017 MILLION OZ

MARCH 3/WITH SILVER DOWN 58 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.774 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 605.531 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 2//WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 609.305 MILLION OZ

MARCH 1.WITH SILVER UP 26 CENTS TODAY:A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.593 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 609.305 MILLION OZ.

FEB 26/WITH SILVER DOWN  $1.17 TODAY: TWO HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.857 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV AT 3 PM//AND ANOTHER 1.858 MILLION OZ AT 5.20 EST//INVENTORY RESTS AT 615.898 MILLION OZ//

FEB 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 619.613 MILLION OZ//

FEB 24/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORIES AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 619.613 MILLION OZ

FEB 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS TODAY: TWO ENTRIES I) HUGE CHANGE ISN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 127,000 OZ INTO THE SLV AND THEN A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 7.801 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 619.613 MILLION OZ

FEB 22/WITH SILVER UP 74 CENTS TODAY: 2 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.322 MILLION OZ AT 3 PM AND 6.873 MILLION OF AT 5 20 PM EST/INVENTORY RESTS AT 611.685 MILLION OZ/

FEB 19//WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 621.007 MILLION OZ//

FEB 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 22 CENTS TODAY : TWO HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.858 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV AN ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL 5.758 MILLION OZ// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 621.007 MILLION OZ//

FEB 17/WITH SILVER UP  1 CENT TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A DEPOSIT OF 83,000 OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 628.623 MILLION OZ//

FEB 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.044 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 628.530 MILLION OZ//

FEB 12/WITH SILVER UP 31 CENTS//A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.312 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 630.574 MILLION OZ.

FEB 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.858 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 634.986 MILLION OZ//

FEB 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 44 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 636.844 MILLION OZ//

FEB 9/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.19 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 17.882 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 636.844 MILLION OZ//

FEB 8/WITH SILVER UP $0.53 TODAY: A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 4.451 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 654.726 MILLION OZ//

XXXXXXXXXXXXXX

SLV INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT

MARCH 26/2021
579.022 MILLION OZ

 
 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i)LAWRIE WILLIAMS:

 

 

OR

EGON VON GREYERZ// none today

OR

Peter Schiff..

end

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

Ken Rogoff:  the dollar is fragile and if China decides to alter its peg and allows a free float, most of Asua will follow and then the USA loses half of its weight

a good read.

(Ken Rogoff/GATA)

Kenneth Rogoff: The dollar’s fragile hegemony

 

 

 Section: Daily Dispatches

 

By Kenneth Rogoff
Project Syndicate, New York
Tuesday, March 30, 2021

The mighty U.S. dollar continues to reign supreme in global markets. But the greenback’s dominance may well be more fragile than it appears, because expected future changes in China’s exchange-rate regime are likely to trigger a significant shift in the international monetary order.

For many reasons, the Chinese authorities will probably someday stop pegging the renminbi to a basket of currencies, and shift to a modern inflation-targeting regime under which they allow the exchange rate to fluctuate much more freely, especially against the dollar. When that happens, expect most of Asia to follow China. In due time, the dollar, currently the anchor currency for roughly two-thirds of world GDP, could lose nearly half its weight.

Considering how much the United States relies on the dollar’s special status — or what then-French Finance Minister Valéry Giscard d’Estaing famously called America’s “exorbitant privilege” — to fund massive public and private borrowing, the impact of such a shift could be significant. Given that the U.S. has been aggressively using deficit financing to combat the economic ravages of COVID-19, the sustainability of its debt might be called into question. …

… For the remainder of the analysis:

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/flexible-renminbi-could-thr…*end

iii) Other physical stories:

Congressman Mooney Introduces Bill to End Federal Taxes on Gold and Silver

by: Jp Cortez

Money Metals News Service

March 30th, 2021

Washington, D.C — U.S. Representative Alex Mooney (R- WV) today re-introduced sound money legislation to remove all federal income taxation from gold and silver coins and bullion.

The Monetary Metals Tax Neutrality Act (H.R. 2284) backed by the Sound Money Defense League and free-market activists – would clarify that the sale or exchange of precious metals bullion and coins are not to be included in capital gains, losses, or any other type of federal income calculation.

“My view, which is backed up by language in the U.S. Constitution, is that gold and silver coins are money and are legal tender,” Rep. Mooney said.

“If they’re indeed U.S. money, it seems there should be no taxes on them at all. So, why are we taxing these coins as collectibles?”

Acting unilaterally, Internal Revenue Service bureaucrats have placed gold and silver in the same “collectibles” category as artwork, Beanie Babies, and baseball cards – a classification that subjects the monetary metals to a discriminatorily high long-term capital gains tax rate of 28%.

Sound money activists have long pointed out it is inappropriate to apply any federal income tax, regardless of the rate, against the only kind of money named in the U.S. Constitution. And the IRS has never defended how its position squares up with current law.

Furthermore, the U.S. Mint continuously mints coins of gold, silver, platinum, and palladium and gives each of these coins a legal tender value denominated in U.S. dollars. This formal status as U.S. money further underscores the peculiarity of the IRS’s tax treatment.

A tax neutral measure, the Monetary Metals Tax Neutrality Act states that “no gain or loss shall be recognized on the sale or exchange of (1) gold, silver, platinum, or palladium minted and issued by the Secretary at any time or (2), refined gold or silver bullion, coins, bars, rounds, or ingots which are valued primarily based on their metal content and not their form.”

Under current IRS policy, a taxpayer who sells his precious metals may end up with a capital “gain” in terms of Federal Reserve Notes and must pay federal income taxes on this “gain.”

But the capital “gain” is not necessarily a real gain. It is often a nominal gain that simply results from the inflation created by the Federal Reserve and the attendant decline in the Federal Reserve Note dollar’s purchasing power.

Under Rep. Mooney’s bill, precious metals gains and losses would not be included in any calculations of a taxpayer’s federal taxable income.

“Inflation is a regressive tax that especially harms wage earners, savers, and retirees on a fixed income,” said Jp Cortez, policy director at the Sound Money Defense League. “We are encouraged to see legislation targeting the evils of the Federal Reserve System.”

“The IRS does not let taxpayers deduct the staggering capital losses they suffer when holding Federal Reserve Notes over time,” said Stefan Gleason, president of Money Metals Exchange, the U.S. company named Best Overall Precious Metals Dealer by Investopedia.com. “So it’s grossly unfair for the IRS to assess a capital gains tax when citizens hold gold and silver to protect them from the Fed’s policy of currency devaluation.”

The text of the H.R. 2284 can be found here and additional information on its current status is located here https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house- bill/2284?s=4&r=1

-END-

CME to launch a fraction Bitcoin futures contract

(zerohedge)

CME To Launch Micro-Bitcoin Futures; Options Traders Betting On $80k By End-April

 
TUESDAY, MAR 30, 2021 – 07:45 PM

While chaos reigns in various parts of the US equity and bond markets, bitcoin has been quietly surging higher in the last few days.

Source: Bloomberg

In fact, US rate forecast volatility is now higher than bitcoin’s realized risk…

Source: Bloomberg

Ahead of President Biden’s pitch tomorrow for another $3 trillion in spending, the crypto patch has been bid and helped today by the news that PayPal will launch “Checkout With Crypto” – a cryptocurrency service for merchants across the US.

“This is the first time you can seamlessly use cryptocurrencies in the same way as a credit card or a debit card inside your PayPal wallet,” PayPal CEO Dan Schulman told Reuters.

Checkout With Crypto service will enable those holding cryptocurrencies on the platform to spend it with all of PayPal’s merchants. Supported cryptocurrencies include Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash, Ethereum, and Litecoin; the payments company will, however, convert the cryptocurrency to fiat money for the actual payment.

“We think it is a transitional point where cryptocurrencies move from being predominantly an asset class that you buy, hold and or sell to now becoming a legitimate funding source to make transactions in the real world at millions of merchants,” Schulman added.

Also buoying bitcoin prices is the news that the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) has unveiled plans to launch a new Bitcoin derivatives product that will enable traders to speculate on fractional units of the flagship digital currency.

CoinTelegraph reports that CME Group’s Micro Bitcoin futures contract, which is set to launch May 3 pending regulatory approval, will be worth 0.1 BTC. The smaller contract size provides market participants with an additional tool to hedge their Bitcoin price risk, CME said Tuesday. CME’s current Bitcoin contract unit is 5 BTC.

Tim McCourt, CME Group’s global head of equity index and alternative investment products, explaine:

“The introduction of Micro Bitcoin futures responds directly to demand for smaller-sized contracts from a broad array of clients and will offer even more choice and precision in how participants can trade regulated Bitcoin futures in a transparent and efficient manner at CME Group.”

CME launched its Bitcoin futures contract in December 2017. The Chicago Board Options Exchange, Its larger crosstown rival, was the first to introduce the derivatives contract during the same month but has since abandoned Bitcoin futures altogether.

CME has noted a steady uptick in crypto derivatives trading since the first Bitcoin futures contract launched more than three years ago.

image courtesy of CoinTelegraph

Perhaps that is one reason why bitcoin options traders have started to build a sizable position in call options (levered bets on higher prices), betting on prices above $80,000 by the end of April.

Source: bybt

According to the latest data, 5,580 bitcoin (around $330 mm notional) of contracts are outstanding in $80,000 strike April Calls.

Notably, as CoinMinks reportssignificant volume has also accumulated around contracts with a strike price of $120,000.

This means that some traders believe the bitcoin price will more than double in the next five weeks.

According to data aggregator Skew, probability estimates based on market data for the April 30 contract suggest that options traders may be a bit too optimistic. The analytics platform gives it a probability of just 6.19% that bitcoin will top $80,000 (and only a 2.15% chance that the bitcoin price will even reach $100,000 by the April 30 expiration date).

The upcoming Coinbase IPO may also be a catalyst for the upside call-buying.

end
 

Your early WEDNESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED UP at 6.5515 /

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.5618   /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 14.76 pts or 0.43%

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 199.15 pts or 0.70%

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 253.90 pts or 0.86%

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL MIXED/

USA dollar index UP TO 93.34/Euro RISES TO 1.1727

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: RISES TO. +.10/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 110.78/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

3c Nikkei now JUST ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 60.73 and Brent: 64.16

3f Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE CLOSED UP/OFF- SHORE: UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO -.28%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 0.67% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.34%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 0.95: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 0.85

3k Gold at $1688.10 silver at: 24.08   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 55/100 in roubles/dollar) 75.29

3m oil into the 60 dollar handle for WTI and 63 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 110.78 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9436 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1064 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to 0.28%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 1.7232% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.385%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 8.28..

Futures Flat, Yields Rise Ahead Of Biden Multi-Trillion Infrastructure Plan

 
WEDNESDAY, MAR 31, 2021 – 08:01 AM

US index futures were little changed and global stocks treaded water on Wednesday as Treasury yields resumed their upward march ahead of Joe Biden’s Pittsburgh event where he will announce a $2.25 trillion dollar plan – one which the administration says will be the most sweeping since investments in the 1960s space program and 1950s interstate-highway system – to rebuild America’s infrastructure, with traders weighing the inflation and tax impact of the stimulus.

At 07:30 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis were down 27 points, or 0.06%, and S&P 500 E-minis were up 3.5 points, or 0.09%.

Nasdaq 100 E-minis were up 75 points, or 0.56%, as Apple Inc rose 1.6% after UBS upgraded the stock to Buy on stable long-term demand for iPhones with better authorized service providers.

MSCI’s All Country World Index traded 0.1% lower. Europe’s STOXX 600 index was up 0.2%, on course for its second straight month of gains. Britain’s FTSE 100 was down 0.1% as shares in online food delivery firm Deliveroo slumped as much as 30% on their first day of trading.

Britain’s GDP rose more than expected, 1.3%, in the final quarter of last year, but still shrank the most in more than three centuries in 2020 as a whole. Here are some of the biggest European movers today:

  • Siemens Gamesa shares jump as much as 7%, while Nel shares gain as much as 6.3% and Scatec shares rise as much as 5.3%, as renewable energy stocks outperform in Europe ahead of U.S. President Joe Biden unveiling his $2t economic plan. The plan is expected to involve a mass ramp-up of infrastructure spending, including on green energy initiatives.
  • Ipsen shares rise as much as 7.2%. The EU Commission approved Cabometyx in combination with Bristol Myers Squibb’s Opdivo (nivolumab) as a first-line treatment for patients living with advanced renal cell carcinoma, Ipsen said in a statement.
  • Hikma shares gain as much as 4.9% after being upgraded to buy from hold and given a Street-high price target at Jefferies. The broker said the shares are not reflecting several upcoming product catalysts beyond generic Vascepa and Advair.
  • Tecan shares jump as much as 6.5% after being moved back to a buy rating at Berenberg, with the broker saying it is now more comfortable that a post- Covid-19 cliff is not looming and instead there should be a transient moderation in growth.
  • Kindred shares rise as much as 4.5% after Nordea raised its price target, seeing strong momentum in both sportsbook and casino continuing on all important markets. The broker sees Kindred as a clear acquisition candidate as well as a strong organic growth story, according to note.
  • CD Projekt shares plunged as much as 17% after its strategic update disappointed the market, receiving price cuts and a rating downgrade from analysts. The company having no plans for separate multiplayer version of Cyberpunk, together with no timeline for major game launches, were seen as major drawbacks.
  • H&M shares fall as much as 3.1% after 1Q earnings that Jefferies (hold) said showed delivery came in roughly in line with estimates. The broker added that better opex discipline helped buffer the impact of European store restrictions.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside of Japan fell 0.3%, its first monthly loss in five months. Sentiment in Asia remained downbeat despite data showing China’s factory activity expanded faster than expected in March. Chinese services surged, too.

Asian tech shares dragged the index lower as borrowing costs climbed, with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. falling 1.7%. The chipmaker’s chairman said Tuesday that global efforts to develop national self-sufficiency in chip production are “economically unrealistic” and U.S.-China trade tensions have contributed to chip shortage. Shares of Hong Kong’s stock exchange closed down 1.3% after a Reuters report said China is considering setting up a stock exchange to attract overseas-listed firms. Meanwhile, China’s CSI 300 Index fell 0.9%. The gauge ended March with its worst monthly loss in a year as investors assess lofty valuations and a tighter liquidity environment. Overall, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.7%, trimming the benchmark’s gain so far this year to less than 2%, set for its fourth straight quarterly advance. The gauge is poised for the longest stretch of quarterly gains since 2017.

While global banks are facing as much as $10 billion in losses after U.S. investment firm Archegos Capital Management defaulted on margin calls, putting investors on edge about who else might be exposed, the panic over what shoe will fall next subsided after no more big blocks were sold overnight. Meanwhile investors, rattled by the meltdown of Archegos are turning their attention to growth and inflation as volatility spurred by the forced sales subsides. While Europe’s struggle with inoculations and the resurgence of the coronavirus have tempered growth expectations, the U.S. vaccine rollout is surpassing targets. The focus on surging bond yields remains, making equity valuations look lofty, particularly for major tech companies that have borne the brunt of the sell-off.

“The plans as announced have a long and tortuous journey to make it through Congress and thus the end result is likely to be nine months or more away and may well look very different indeed once it has been through that political wranglings on the Hill,” said James Athey, investment director at Aberdeen Standard Investments. “If investors are weighing the risks appropriately, there shouldn’t be much impact on markets in the short term.”

“Even if President Biden’s infrastructure plans come with a considerable sting in the tail, the economic reflation and reopening story should limit any pullback in interest rates,” ING Groep NV strategists including Antoine Bouvetand Padhraic Garvey wrote in a note. “The rise in rates is about more than fiscal stimulus.”

In rates, Treasuries slid again in Asian hours, dragged down by losses in Aussie bonds following a tepid debt sale and solid Australian building-permit data before later rallying into the month-end close. As a reminder, we previously noted that Japan has been the big seller of Treasurys in 2021.

The 10Y Treasury rose as high as 1.746% from Tuesday’s 1.708% and were last at 1.723%. Euro zone bonds calmed, but Germany’s 10-year yield was set for its biggest quarterly jump since the fourth quarter of 2019.  USTs were kept under pressure by weakness in Aussie bonds, with USD/JPY rising as much as 0.6%. Quarter-end flows are expected to be supportive for debt markets, with Bank of America seeing $41b of inflows into Treasuries.Treasury futures volumes are around average. There are no sign of the considerable month-end real-money demand seen in the long-end on Tuesday, according to one trader

Bonds were sold ahead of renewed reflation jitters unleashed by Biden’s multi-trillion infrastructure package which will target traditional projects like roads and bridges alongside investments in the electric vehicle market; its size and scale of the proposal as well as the question of how it would be paid for is likely to set the stage for the next partisan clash in Congress.

In FX, the dollar dropped, still heading for its best quarter in a year. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index erased an earlier gain shortly after the London open amid quarter-end position rebalancing flows, and was mirrored by an advance in most other Group-of-10 currencies led by the pound and Norwegian krone; the euro rose to a fresh day high in morning hours, even as ECB President Christine Lagarde said her institution won’t shy away from using all its tools if investors try to push bond yields higher. The yen slid to a new one-year low against the greenback amid rising Treasury yields, before paring the move; the Bank of Japan plans to slow its bond purchases in all maturities in April, according to a statement Wednesday.

In commodities, Brent crude rose 0.5% to $64.47 a barrel. U.S. crude added 0.6% to $64.53 barrel. Gold prices slipped to 1,684.40 an ounce.

To the day ahead now, and the main highlight will be President Biden’s aforementioned infrastructure speech. Over in the US, there’ll be the ADP’s report of private payrolls for March, the MNI Chicago PMI for March and February’s pending home sales, while Canada will be releasing January’s GDP. Finally from central banks, the ECB’s Villeroy will be speaking.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures little changed at 3,944.00
  • STOXX Europe 600 little changed at 430.44
  • MXAP down 0.7% to 203.56
  • MXAPJ down 0.4% to 678.02
  • Nikkei down 0.9% to 29,178.80
  • Topix down 1.2% to 1,954.00
  • Hang Seng Index down 0.7% to 28,378.35
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.4% to 3,441.91
  • Sensex down 1.0% to 49,660.06
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.8% to 6,790.67
  • Kospi down 0.3% to 3,061.42
  • Brent Futures up 0.3% to $64.33/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.1% to $1,684.09
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.16% to 93.15
  • Euro up 0.2% to $1.1742
  • Brent Futures up 0.3% to $64.33/bbl

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • Usage of the Treasury’s overnight reverse repurchase facility surged to $104.7 billion on Tuesday, the most since last April, according to data from the New York Fed. It pays an overnight rate of 0% — well above the minus 0.05% available at Tuesday’s close in the general collateral market — helping to temporarily reduce the quantity of reserve balances in the banking system
  • Britons saved 16% of their disposable income in the fourth quarter, adding to a cash pile that could power a consumer boom as coronavirus restrictions are lifted
  • German joblessness declined in March, signaling economic resilience even as thousands of businesses remain affected by recently-extended pandemic restrictions
  • Chancellor Angela Merkel said Germany will halt the use of AstraZeneca Plc’s Covid-19 vaccine for people younger than 60 starting Wednesday after a handful of new cases of severe blood clots emerged
  • A panel of OPEC+ technical experts agreed to revise down oil-demand estimates for 2021, signaling a more negative view of the market just days before the group decides on production policy

A quick look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asian equity markets traded cautiously during the quarter- and fiscal year-end with sentiment not helped by the uninspiring lead from the US where participants were tentative ahead of President Biden’s speech later today where he is to unveil USD 2.25tln of infrastructure spending and is also expected to comment on increasing the corporate tax rate to 28%. ASX 200 (+0.8%) outperformed helped by strength in financials after the RBNZ partially relaxed dividend restrictions to allow a pay-out of up to 50% of earnings and with nearly all industries in the green aside from gold miners after the precious metal recently slipped beneath the USD 1700/oz, while Nikkei 225 (-0.9%) failed to benefit from favourable currency flows with the index subdued on the last day of the financial year following weak Industrial Production data and with Mitsubishi UFJ warning of a USD 300mln loss related to the Archegos fallout. Hang Seng (-0.7%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.4%) were subdued despite better-than-expected Chinese Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI data as a deluge of earnings releases also took plenty of the focus, while US-China tensions continued to linger in which the US State Department’s annual human rights report cited China for “crimes against humanity” and FCC Commissioner Carr called for the US to take further steps to remove Huawei and ZTE equipment from US networks. Finally, 10yr JGBs were softer following the indecisive performance in USTs and with mild upside in yields, although downside was cushioned amid the BoJ’s presence in the market for a total of JPY 510bln of JGBs in the belly to super-long end.

Top Asian News

  • Hong Kong Limits Public Information as China Exerts Control
  • China Fintech Firm Falls 16% in Worst Hong Kong Debut Since 2018
  • China Mulls New Bourse for Overseas-Listed Firms, Reuters Says
  • Chinese Fresh Food Chain Qiandama Said to Weigh Hong Kong IPO

European equities (Eurostoxx 50 -0.1%) and US futures (e-mini S&P flat) trade with little in the way of firm direction as markets await US President Biden’s infrastructure speech at 21:20BST/16:20EDT. US President Biden is set to unveil USD 2.25trln of infrastructure spending in the first part of the bill today, with USD 650bln said to have been earmarked for roads and bridges, USD 300bln for housing, USD 400bln for clear energy credits and USD 400bln for the elderly. Furthermore, other reports note that Biden’s plan is to include spending over 8 years and that he will not call for a wealth tax to pay for spending proposal but is expected to comment on increasing the corporate tax rate to 28%. From a sectoral standpoint, performance is relatively mixed in Europe with not much in the way of breadth. Telecom names outperform, whilst some of the more cyclically-exposed sectors such as Banks, Basic Resources and Oil & Gas lag. Credit Suisse continue to act as a drag on banking names as speculation lingers around the extent of its losses related to the Archegos blow-up. Elsewhere, the Deliveroo IPO has commenced on a weak footing with the stock enduring losses of circa 25%; Just Eat (-1.4%) have posted modest losses in sympathy. Finally, H&M (-2.4%) trade lower on the session after posting a loss for Q1 and amid recent criticism from the Chinese government after the Co. raised concerns over forced labour in the Xinjiang region.

Top European News

  • H&M Tries to Smooth Over Chinese Social-Media Backlash
  • Credit Suisse Outlook Cut to Negative by S&P as Bonds Tumble
  • Lagarde Says Investors Can Test ECB Resolve as Much as They Want
  • Equity Positioning Is Now Less of a Tailwind, Barclays Says

In FX, although the Euro enjoys a greater share of the Dollar index, the sharp ascent of Usd/Jpy and sheer magnitude of the rally has been instrumental if not quite responsible for its breach of 93.000. To recap, the Yen put up a pretty staunch defence of 109.00 and 109.50 before caving in at the end of last week when US Treasury yields set off on their most recent ramp higher and it appeared that most Japanese hedgers had completed their buying for month, quarter and fiscal year end. Subsequently, the rate of decay and Usd/Jpy upside have accelerated amidst reports of demand from importers and M&A related buying in the headline pair, not to mention residual rebalancing for the March/April, Q1/Q2 and FY turn plus weaker than forecast Japanese IP data. However, 111.00 seems to be a line in the sand and the DXY also ran out of steam just ahead of 93.500 at 93.439, albeit with resistance also coming via Eur/Usd that narrowly held above 1.1700. The index is currently just above 93.000 and a 93.092 low awaiting ADP as a proxy for NFP and the Chicago PMI that might be a reliable guide for the ISM also on Friday, and both due before pending home sales and President Biden unveiling his Economic Vision for the Future.

  • EUR/AUD/NZD/GBP/CAD – All benefiting from the Greenback’s fade, as the Euro eyes 1.1750 amidst fairly familiar rhetoric from ECB President Lagarde and decent option expiry interest at the strike (1.2 bn) that extends up through 1.1775 (1 bn) to 1.1800 (1.2 bn). Meanwhile, the Aussie has also gleaned encouragement from a bumper rise in building approvals that beat consensus more than 4-fold, plus stronger than expected Chinese PMIs, services in particular, to retain grasp of 0.7600. Conversely, 0.7000 is still proving elusive for the Kiwi and a deterioration in NBNZ business sentiment alongside a decline in the activity outlook will hardly have helped. Elsewhere, the Pound is hovering below 1.3800 having bounced off a marginally firmer low 1.3700 base, but staging another attempt to fill bids into 0.8500 vs the Euro, but could be scuppered by option expiries between 0.8525-15 (1.1 bn) and even undermined by those at 0.8540-50 (1.3 bn) if the round number emerges unscathed again.
  • SCANDI/EM – The Norwegian Crown is getting tantalisingly close to breaking the 10.0000 barrier vs the Euro in wake of the Norges Bank raising its daily foreign currency sale quota to Nok 1.8 bn from tomorrow vs Nok 1.7 bn in March, but the Swedish Krona is still lagging even though the NIER has upgraded is 2021 GDP and inflation projections quite markedly from those made in December. In contrast, the aforementioned encouraging official PMIs are helping the Cnh pare some recent losses and the Try has drawn some comfort from a rise in Turkish consumer confidence irrespective of the prospect that it comes before a fall on the back of latest investor qualms over CBRT independence.

In commodities, WTI and Brent front month futures opened the session on a firmer footing, following on from Asia’s positive lead, but have since reversed course and now sit in negative territory. The initial price rise followed suit from mounting expectations that OPEC+ will maintain current output cuts into May. That said, bearish macro impulses are likely to be the driver for any such action. Note, the OPEC+ JTC panel raised concern over growing COVID infection rates, new lockdown measures and travel restrictions. As such, the panel stated the uncertainties could hinder oil demand recovery, especially fuel transport, and it sees prevailing volatility as a sign of fragile market conditions. Accordingly, OPEC+ revised its 2021 global oil demand growth forecast down by 300,000 BPD to 5.6mln BPD. The May WTI contract trades low/mid USD 60.00/bbl (vs high USD 61.17/bbl) whilst its Brent counterpart trades just shy of USD 64.00/bbl (vs high USD 64.79/bbl). Spot gold is flat on the session whilst spot silver is seeing mild upside amid the softer Dollar. Moreover, for the quarter, due to the surge in US treasury yields and the stronger DXY spot gold is set for its worst quarter since 2016. At the time of writing, spot gold trades at USD 1,685/oz (vs high USD 1,688/oz) and silver trades just shy of USD 24.10/oz (vs low USD 23.79/oz). Onto base metals, LME copper is firmer on the session, but it is set for its first monthly fall in a year, due to aforementioned DXY strength and rising yields. Lastly, Dalian iron ore has seen a fall in price alongside Chinese environmental policies reducing demand.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:15am: March ADP Employment Change, est. 550,000, prior 117,000
  • 9:45am: March MNI Chicago PMI, est. 61.0, prior 59.5
  • 10am: Feb. Pending Home Sales YoY, est. 6.5%, prior 8.2%; Pending Home Sales (MoM), est. -3.0%, prior -2.8%

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

As we arrive at the last day of Q1, the quarter seems to be ending very much how it began, with Treasury yields rising to fresh highs as investors await the announcement of further spending proposals in President Biden’s infrastructure package. Indeed at time of writing, the rise in 10yr Treasury yields in Q1 so far had reached a massive +82.7bps, which puts them just shy of the 21st century’s other quarterly records back in Q4 2016 (+85.0bps) when President Trump won the presidential election, and Q2 2009 (+87.0bps) as the global economy was climbing out of the financial crisis. Should today’s speech spark a further climb in yields, that could then leave this as the biggest quarterly rise going all the way back to Q1 1994 (+94.4bps).

We’ll have to wait a few more hours to get the final scorecard, and by the end of the session yesterday, yields on 10yr Treasuries had actually fallen back -0.5bps to 1.703%, though they’ve risen another +3.7bps this morning. This was down from their midday high of 1.77%, which is their highest level since January last year, aided by the prospect of further stimulus as well as continued progress on the vaccine rollout. Real yields (+1.6bps) lost out to inflation expectations (-1.8bps) falling back, while the dollar index strengthened +0.38% to its highest level since Election Day last November.

In terms of what to expect today, Biden will be unveiling his plans in a speech later in Pittsburgh, which are part of his agenda to “Build Back Better” from the pandemic. We’re yet to get the full details, but the Washington Post reported yesterday that it would be worth around $2.25tn, with the focus on physical infrastructure, housing, clean energy and manufacturing, among others. Currently there is $650 billion earmarked for bridges, highways and ports, while additional $300 billion for housing and manufacturing separately. That comes ahead of another address scheduled for next month, in which he’ll be looking at other areas of investment such as healthcare and education. The combined cost of the two parts could reach $4 trillion. White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki has indicated that the government will seek to reverse much of the 2017 tax cuts, particularly those on corporations, and that clean energy jobs and expanding broadband access would be among the focuses. One part of the 2017 tax changes that has been particularly contentious has been that a few House Democrats are saying they will only approve tax increases if the $10,000 cap on state and local deductions is repealed. This is an important issue for Democrats from high cost of living areas such as California, New Jersey and New York and could become a sticking point for the Biden administration which can only afford to lose three Democrats in the House of Representatives and no Senators on any legislation, given their 219-211 margin in the House, and the 50-50 margin in the Senate.

This morning Asian markets are following Wall Street’s lead with the Nikkei (-0.75%), Hang Seng (-0.31%) and Shanghai Comp (-0.61%) all losing ground, though the Kospi (+0.10%) is the exception to this pattern. Japanese banks are continuing to underperform however after Mitsubishi UFJ Financial said that it is also impacted by Archegos (more below), and the TOPIX Banks index is down -2.71% this morning. The weakness in Asian equity gauges comes in spite of China posting strong PMI releases for March, with the manufacturing reading at 51.9 (vs. 50.6 last month and 51.2 expected) while non-manufacturing reading climbed to 56.3 (vs. 51.4 last month and 52.0 expected), the highest level since November 2020. Meanwhile, amidst the chatter on inflation it’s worth noting that the sub index for input prices rose to 69.4 (vs. 66.7 last month) as did output prices to 59.8 (vs, 58.5 last month). Outside of Asia, and futures on the S&P 500 (+0.02%) are trading broadly flat overnight and European futures are pointing to a weaker open as they catch up with yesterday’s move in the US. In FX, the Japanese Yen is down -0.45% against the US Dollar to 110.86, which is the Yen’s weakest level in over a year.

Looking back at yesterday’s moves again, equity markets had a pretty divergent performance on either side of the Atlantic, with the S&P 500 falling a further -0.32%, whereas Europe’s STOXX 600 rose +0.71% to a post-pandemic high and the German Dax (+1.29%) breached the 15,000 mark for the first time. The sectoral patterns were more similar however, with higher yields helping banks reverse their losses from the previous day following the Archegos fallout, as the S&P 500 Banks (+1.80%) and Europe’s STOXX Banks index (+2.86%) both recorded solid gains. Energy stocks underperformed however against the backdrop of lower oil prices, with Brent Crude (-1.49%) and WTI (-1.85%) moving lower, while tech stocks outperformed the S&P slightly. The NADSAQ’s move of -0.11% broke a streak of 5 successive sessions underperforming the S&P 500.

Though equities diverged, rates followed a similar pattern in the US and Europe, with European sovereign bonds losing ground across the continent. Yields on 10yr bunds (+3.2bps), OATs (+2.8bps) and gilts (+3.7bps) all moved higher, supported by further rises in inflation expectations ahead of today’s flash CPI reading for the Euro Area. In Germany, 10yr breakevens rose +1.2bps to 1.31%, while their Italian counterparts were up +2.0bps to 1.30%, putting both at their highest level since 2018. And 5y5y forward inflation swaps for the Euro Area advanced +1.6bps to 1.54%, their highest level since the start of 2019.

In terms of that fallout from the Archegos block trades, the worst-affected banks continued to struggle in trading yesterday, with Credit Suisse (-3.07%) and Nomura (-0.66%) adding to their Monday losses, with S&P Global Ratings downgrading Credit Suisse’s outlook on all group entities to negative from stable. Furthermore, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (-1.94%) warned that they could face a loss of around $300mn “in relation to a US client”, which Bloomberg later reported was linked to Archegos according to a person familiar with the matter. That said, some of the tech companies that had sold off significantly on Friday staged something of a recovery, with Discovery (+5.86%) and ViacomCBS (+4.05%) recording solid gains, though in both cases their share price remains well beneath its levels a couple of weeks back.

Turning to the pandemic, there was a further setback for the AstraZeneca vaccine, as Chancellor Merkel announced that the country will suspend the vaccine for use in those under 60. This comes as the Paul Ehrlich Institute said it had now registered 31 cases of a rare blood clot in the brain after people received the vaccine. This was followed by news that Merkel and French President Macron have discussed using Russia’s Sputnik Covid-19 vaccine with Russian officials. However, Sputnik V has not yet been approved by the European Medicines Agency. There was some more positive news out of the UK however, as the ONS’ latest antibody study estimated that over half of the population in England had tested positive for antibodies in the week ending 14 March, implying that either they’ve been vaccinated or have had Covid in the past themselves. And over in Ireland, travel restrictions will be eased from April 12, with people allowed to travel within their county or a 20km radius of their home. Furthermore, two households will be able to meet outside for social purposes. In the US, deaths from the latest spike are expected to bottom in the next few weeks and then any ensuing rise on the back of the current surge of cases could give insight into the efficacy of inoculating much of the older, more vulnerable, part of the population. And finally, a new cluster of 6 confirmed cases and 3 asymptomatic cases was reported in China, in the southwestern province of Yunnan, the first cluster in over a month.

Looking at yesterday’s data, the preliminary German inflation reading for March came in at +2.0% as expected, which was the highest rate in nearly 2 years. We also got the European Commission’s economic sentiment indicator for the Euro Area, which rose to a post-pandemic high of 101.0 in March (vs 96.0 expected). On the other side of the Atlantic meanwhile, the US Conference Board’s consumer confidence index for March rose to 109.7 (vs. 96.9 expected), which was its highest level for a year.

To the day ahead now, and the main highlight will be President Biden’s aforementioned infrastructure speech. On top of that, there’ll be the flash CPI reading for the Euro Area in March, as well as the figures for France and Italy, while the UK will be releasing their final estimate of Q4’s GDP. Over in the US, there’ll be the ADP’s report of private payrolls for March, the MNI Chicago PMI for March and February’s pending home sales, while Canada will be releasing January’s GDP. Finally from central banks, the ECB’s Villeroy will be speaking.

end

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)WEDNESDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 14.76 PTS OR .43%   //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 199.15 PTS OR 0.70%    /The Nikkei closed DOWN 253.94 POINTS OR 0.86%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.68%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP AT 6.5515 /Oil UP TO 60.73 dollars per barrel for WTI and 64.16 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.5515. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.5618 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS //TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED//CORONAVIRUS/PANDEMIC/TRUMP TESTS POSITIVE FOR COVID 19  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

NORTH KOREA//USA/

END

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

Japan tapers and thus yields rise

(zerohedge)

Tokyo Tapers: BOJ Slows April Bond Purchases, Puts Bond Traders On Edge

 
WEDNESDAY, MAR 31, 2021 – 10:30 AM

For the second session in a row we have seen aggressive Treasury selling in the overnight Asian session …

… which wasn’t much of a surprise following last week’s discussion that the vast majority in Treasury futures selling in 2021 has been during the overnight/Asian session…

… as a result of aggressive dumping by Japanese commercial banks.

And while Morgan Stanley’s rates strategist Matthew Hornbach was optimistic in writing that “we have good reason to believe the selling from Japan won’t last… into April” because the fiscal year in Japan ends on March 31 at which point “liquidation of non-yen bond holdings should stop, if not reverse” overnight the BOJ rained on Hornbach’s parade when in a stark reversal from the recent acceleration of QE by the ECB, the Bank of Japan announced plans to reduce the total amount and frequency of its bond purchases in April from March, following its decision earlier this month to widen the target range of the 10-year government bond yield, a move which everyone (but the BOJ) conceded was implicit tightening.

The BOJ will buy short- to long-dated bonds four times next month, compared with five times in Marchand will buy super-long bonds only once, compared with twice in March.

The central bank will buy 450 billion yen of those maturities four times, which will add up to monthly total of 1.8 trillion yen. Until March, they were the tenors the BOJ used to buy the most, with the BOJ buying 420 billion yen of them five times a month. In April, JGBs with one to three years to maturity will become the biggest target of the BOJ’s buying. The BOJ said it reviewed the frequency and amount of bond buying for April taking into account demand for its operations as well as the market’s supply and demand.

Here’s a table comparing the planned purchase amount per operation in April and its frequency with actual total purchases in March.

As a result of the quasi “taper,” the BOJ’s buying of conventional JGBs is expected to fall by about 9% to 5.9 trillion yen ($53.33 billion) in April, compared to 6.45 trillion yen in March.

The move, according to Reuters, underscored the central bank’s resolve to allow yields to fluctuate more around its 0% target, which was one of the key purposes of a policy review it conducted in mid-March.

Of course, it’s one thing for the BOJ to taper in theory and another in practice, which is why moments after the announcement, JGB futures tumbled 15 ticks to 151.00 in after-hour trading as the reduction was far bigger than expected.

“It was a bit of surprise that the BOJ cut its buying in five- to ten-year bonds quite a bit, the maturity in which markets weren’t expecting the BOJ to reduce buying,” said Ryosuke Matsuzaki, market analyst at Mizuho Securities.

“It’s important to balance the need to maintain market functions and control interest rates,” a BOJ official told Reuters, adding the priority was to keep yields stably low as the COVID-19 pandemic weighs on the economy.

The BOJ slightly loosened its grip on long-term interest rates in mid-March and laid the groundwork to taper its huge asset purchases, as part of steps to make its stimulus sustainable enough to weather a prolonged battle to fire up inflation.

Sources told Reuters the BOJ will take a more hands-off approach in bond buying operations from April as it seeks to breathe life back into a market made dormant by its huge presence. Of course, all that means is that if and when yields spike as selling picks up, Kuroda will be right there to pick up the pieces as neither Japan nor any other developed country can risk another bond crash ever again.

3 C CHINA

CHINA/USA/

China now competing with the world for capital

(Xie/Bloomberg)

China Is Now Competing With The World For Capital

 
TUESDAY, MAR 30, 2021 – 10:36 PM

By Ye Xie, Bloomberg Markets live commentator

The largest hedge fund implosion since Long-Term Capital Management blew up in 1998 has left few, if any, scars on financial markets.

A group of stocks linked to the liquidation of Archegos Capital rebounded Tuesday, suggesting the positions have largely been unwound. With that episode running its course, the markets were generally quiet with slightly higher yields and the outperformance of value stocks pointing toward the return of the reflation theme. A stronger dollar, though, is putting commodities under pressure. Bloomberg’s commodity index is starting to diverge from Treasury yields.

Back in China, FTSE Russell confirmed that Chinese bonds will be included in its index with a weighting of 5.3%, as expected. But the implementation won’t start until October and will take three years to complete, which is much longer than anticipated. The immediate market impact is negligible, but the move marks a milestone as Chinese bonds will now be included in all three major bond benchmarks, including those by Bloomberg Barclays and JPMorgan.

China is slowly but surely starting to erode the dominance of advanced nations in the bond market. To make room for Chinese bonds in the benchmark, FTSE cut the weighting of U.S. Treasuries by 1.9 percentage points to about 35%, which is likely to result an outflow of $49 billion, according to HSBC. Japan’s weighting was reduced by about one point to 16%.

In other words, China is starting to compete for capital from international investors at a time when governments are borrowing an unprecedented amount of money. Last year alone, Chinese government bonds attracted about $100 billion of overseas inflows, which is equal to 44% of the increase of foreign holdings in U.S. Treasuries.

Chinese bonds arguably remain under-represented in global benchmarks. They have the same A+ credit rating as Japanese bonds, offer yields that are about 280 bps higher and carry less than half of the interest-rate risk. Yet, the weighting of Chinese bonds is less than a third of the Japanese securities. They’re even weighted less than lower-rated Italian bonds.

Granted, Chinese bonds have their drawbacks. The lack of liquidity means fewer securities meet the criteria to be included in the benchmark. The lack of access to the repo and futures markets also limits foreigners’ interest. And then there are the country’s issues with the rule of law and tensions with the West.

Still, as demonstrated in the recent global debt rout, Chinese bonds provide diversification for investors given their low correlation with other markets. Their sensitivity to U.S. yields has fallen to the lowest in years, according to JPMorgan.

END

CHINA/GERMANY

China continues to bully! This time it is a German publisher who stated that the COVID 19 started in China. They want to censor the book

(Watson/SummitNews)

Beijing Bullies German Publisher To Censors Childrens’ Book That Said COVID Started In China

 
WEDNESDAY, MAR 31, 2021 – 06:30 AM

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

A publisher in Germany has censored a children’s book that said COVID-19 originated in China after Beijing demanded the book’s removal and an apology.

Yes, really.

The book, which was originally published a year ago, is called ‘A Corona Rainbow for Anna and Mortiz’ and serves as a guide for elementary schools and daycare centers to follow COVID-safe procedures.

However, Beijing reacted with fury because the book had the nerve to tell the truth – that the virus originated in China.

The Hamburg-based Chinese consulate threatened the publishing company with criminal charges if it didn’t remove the book from circulation and issue a groveling apology.

“Carlsen publishing house complied with the demand,” reports DW, adding that the company has “stopped delivery of the book” and “a new edition with a different wording regarding the origins of the virus is already in the making.”

The company explained that it had been working on assumptions at the time the book was published, but that “today we would no longer use this wording, as its meaning has proven to be far more open to interpretation than we had intended.”

DW expressed shock that China had sought to interfere in a children’s book which ran to just a few thousand copies and why the publishing company was so eager to cave in to a government located 4,600 miles away.

Chinese journalist Shi Ming explained how Beijing was overseeing a global propaganda campaign in an effort to absolve themselves of blame for the pandemic.

“In the beginning, the Chinese propaganda itself said that the disease had first started in China. It even referred to it as ‘Wuhan pneumonia.’ But now, it wants to erase the memory of the virus’ origins with a worldwide political correctness campaign,” he said.

Political expert Ralph Weber says China is trying to create the false narrative that its only role in the pandemic was to successfully fight it off, adding, “For a long time now, China has been influencing cultural life in Europe, and perhaps we haven’t noticed that so far.”

Beijing’s efforts to memory hole the fact that COVID-19 originated in China has been aided in no small part by the mainstream media.

Legacy media outlets have attempted to frame a supposed anti-Asian hate crime wave as being caused by white supremacy and Donald Trump referring to COVID as the “China virus.”

In reality, white people are statistically underrepresented when it comes to committing crimes against Asians.

The coronavirus pandemic originated in China. Period.

 end

Beijing continues with its bullying insisting that the COVID lab leak theory has been ruled out. The world should stop doing business with them entirely

(zerohedge)

Beijing Rejects Critical WHO Report, Insists COVID “Lab Leak Theory” Has Been Ruled Out

 
WEDNESDAY, MAR 31, 2021 – 01:45 PM

After more than a year of carrying water for Beijing, the WHO finally delivered its strongest rebuke yet to the CCP earlier this week when Dr. Tedros, the WHO’s director-general, said the “lab leak hypothesis” remained a plausible scenario (even if the WHO report specified that it was the least likely scenario, and that animal-to-human cross-infection seemed more realistic). The report’s release, along with Dr. Tedros’s comments from a press briefing yesterday in Geneva, inspired the US and 13 other countries to demand that Beijing cooperate with further inquiries, which Dr. Tedros said would likely focus on the data allegedly denied to investigators during the team’s trip to Wuhan in January.

Dr. Tedros’s criticisms of the report precipitated a statement from the US and 13 other nations calling on Beijing to cooperate and release the data. But unsurprisingly, the CCP leadership wasn’t having it.

Even though one member of the WHO investigative team denied reports that Beijing had tried to meddle with the final report, the unexpected rebuke in front of the international community has clearly aggravated Beijing. Because on Wednesday, the CCP dispatched Liang Wannian, the most senior Chinese scientist on the WHO-led team that visited Wuhan in January, to deny the WHO’s complaints about being denied access to critical data.

During an official press briefing in Beijing, Wannian explained that while “there was some data that according to Chinese law could not be taken away or photographed but analysis in Wuhan was done together,” Lianan said. That, of course, contradicts claims from other team members and the WHO, who complained that data on potential early COVID cases dating back to September 2019 was withheld, despite promises of transparency and cooperation.

Asked about the prospect for further inquiry, Liang declined to offer any concrete details beyond saying that the details of future research plans had not yet been decided. “The next stage will be to build upon the results of origins research in China to search for the origins on a global scale,” he said.

“There was some data that according to Chinese law could not be taken away or photographed but analysis in Wuhan was done together,” Liang told a press conference in Beijing on Wednesday.

The Chinese government has carefully managed all inquiries into the virus’s orgins while – as we have reported – pushing an “alternative” theory which claims the virus actually originated outside China.

In addition to the press conference in Beijing, China’s Foreign Ministry said it believed that the report had adequately “ruled out” the possibility the virus leaked from the Wuhan Institute of Virology.

“Speculation about laboratory leaks has always existed, but the team of specialists…found no evidence for suspicion,” said Hua Chunying, a top ministry mouthpiece.

Well, that settles that, then. Now, will the WHO continue pushing back against Beijing? Or will this pressure to disclose the requested data simply fizzle in the face of unyielding pressure from the CCP?

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

EU//CORONAVIRUS UPDATE/RUSSIA

The USA and EU officials are deriding Austria’s Kurz for their talks on using the Sputnik V instead of AZ. It is a much safer vaccine

(zerohedge)

Austria’s Kurz Derides EU’s “Geopolitical Blinkers” On Vaccine, Confirms Talks For Sputnik V

 
WEDNESDAY, MAR 31, 2021 – 02:45 AM

It appears the campaign by some EU and US officials to try and ensure Russia’s Sputnik V jab stays out of Europe and Western countries isn’t going so well. 

Earlier this month it was widely reported that despite European Union leaders’ fierce public criticisms of Russia’s coronavirus vaccine, the reality is that “Behind the scenes, the bloc is turning to Moscow’s Sputnik V shot as it tries to get its stuttering efforts to vaccinate its 450 million people back on track, EU diplomatic and official sources told Reuters.” It was noted at the time that at least four EU states were seeking to make their own independent deals regardless of the unease in Brussels. 

And now on Tuesday Reuters reports “Austria is in talks with Russia to buy a million doses of its Sputnik V coronavirus vaccine, which has yet to be approved by the European Medicines Agency,” according to a statement by Chancellor Sebastian Kurz’s office.

Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz, via AFP

It’s predictably unleashed a storm of controversy as the conservative leader is being accused of deliberately and negligently failing to buy the max coronavirus vaccines it was allowed under the European Union’s collective purchasing scheme.

Kurz responded by suggesting Austria’s government would not be beholden to Brussels’ anti-Russia stance which should have no bearing on the science of whether or not Sputnik V is effective. He said:

There must be no geopolitical blinkers regarding vaccines… The only thing that must count is whether the vaccine is effective and safe.”

Kurz has complained that the EU’s vaccination steering board system for determining how many jabs a country gets is opaque and unreliable, resulting in vaccines distributed “unevenly”.

Back in February, Kurz began being increasingly vocal over not being concerned about the Russian aspect: “It’s about getting a safe vaccine as quickly as possible, never mind who makes it,” he had “controversially” said in an interview with the German weekly Welt am Sonntag.

“Austria would certainly try to make production capacity available at appropriate national firms if the Russian and Chinese manufacturers secure approval and are produced in Europe… just like manufacturers from other countries.” He had explained if available he would personally be ready to receive the Russian vaccine if approved.

Slovakia is another country where talks to procure the Sputnik vaccine has unleashed a full-blown political crisis. 

As a prime example of this kind of fear-driven motivation fueling the controversy and debate, earlier this month Charles Michel, the Belgian politician who has served as President of the European Council since 2019, reiterated a commonly echoed theme among diplomats and Western officials: “We should not let ourselves be misled by China and Russia, both regimes with less desirable values than ours, as they organize highly limited but widely publicised operations to supply vaccines to others,” he said.

Michel had vowed, “Europe will not use vaccines for propaganda purposes.” It’s this kind of rhetoric that Austria’s Kurz is vowing will not impact his country’s sovereign decision to deal with the vaccine suppliers it wishes. 

END

CORONAVIRUS UPDATE/FRANCE//ANOTHER LOCKDOWN

France Headed For New National Lockdown As COVID Cases Surge

 
WEDNESDAY, MAR 31, 2021 – 09:55 AM

Despite expanding lockdown measures to cover more than one-third of the country (including Paris and other major cities) earlier this month, and other areas French President Emmanuel Macron is expected to follow German Chancellor Angela Merkel by imposing strict new nation lockdown measures as Europe’s “third wave” of COVID cases intensifies.

France has seen COVID cases (adjusted for population) surge to the highest level in Western Europe, while only hard-hit ex-eastern bloc countries like Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic have it worse than France, as the chart below shows. This has inspired Germany and Spain to restrict travel from the country.

 

Bloomberg reports that President Macron is planning to announce during a national address on Wednesday evening that he will impose new nationwide measures to contain the spike, and that these measures could include school closures and a ban on inter-city travel. The new national edict would mark the end of the “regional” approach that France has relied on all year.

Although he declined to elaborate, government spokesman Gabriel Attal said Wednesday after a defense council meeting that “decisions have been made” regarding new lockdown measures, but he declined to elabroate. Macron will address the nation at 2000 local time (1400ET). If Macron follows through with the school closures, that would also mark a major reversal for France, which had insisted on keeping schools open over the past year, unlike many of its European neighbors.

Macron has so far been “unapologetic” about his resistance to more restrictive measures, according to Bloomberg.

As the EU vaccination push lags for a number of reasons (primarily a shortage of supplies, and widespread skepticism) more than 8MM people have received at least one jab of the vaccine, which represents more than 10% of the population. The target to vaccinate all French adults willing to get the jab by the end of the summer remains in place.

Notably, Macron ignored the advice of his health minister who began advocating for more restrictive measures earlier this year. Instead, the government imposed a nationwide curfew, closed malls and expanded travel curbs – but didn’t go all in on a national lockdown. The hope was that the most pessimistic forecasts wouldn’t become a reality – but they have.

This could leave Macron vulnerable to a challenger when he is up for reelection next year. His former rival Marine Le Pen has seen her popularity rise over the past year, a sign she could be a serious threat in an electoral rematch.

EUROPE//CHINA/H & M

Europe tells Hand M to lay low on the Chinese virtue signaling. Chinese citizens love European products

(zerohedge)

Europe Tells H&M To “Lay Low” On Chinese Virtue Signaling Until Anger Blows Over

 
WEDNESDAY, MAR 31, 2021 – 05:45 AM

Swedish fashion brand H&M has been told by the head of the EU Chamber of Commerce in China to bear down and “let it happen” – referring to Chinese anger at the company over their supposed refusal to use cotton picked by alleged forced labor in the country’s Xinjiang region, according to Bloomberg.

You really have to just let it happen, lay low and see when it blows over and then come back again,” said Chamber president Jörg Wuttke in a Tuesday statement to Bloomberg TV, adding: “Chinese customers love European products and brands, so I guess it will be the same for textiles.”

H&M was the subject of a massive boycott by Chinese social media users last week after someone found an undated statement from the company saying they would not use cotton from Xinjiang over forced labor concerns. They were swiftly condemned by the Communist Youth League and the People’s Liberation Army – while Apple and Baidu Maps searches immediately ghosted H&M from their service. In smaller cities, H&M stores were shuttered by nervous landlords according to the report.

Wutkke’s response – instead of offering to explore China’s alleged human rights violations – is yet another reason why corporations are terrified of China. Last week, Nike and Adidas also came under fire for previously saying they wouldn’t use labor from the region over similar forced labor concerns.

A post on the official Weibo page of Beijing Youth Daily dated Thursday noted foreign apparel brands including Adidas and Inditex-owned Zara have previously made remarks about boycotting Xinjiang cotton, while The Global Times, a communist-party tabloid,  also mentioned Burberry while noting that Spain’s Inditex, owner of Zara, had “quietly removed” a statement on Xinjiang from its English and Spanish-language websites. Shortly after, calls to boycott the Swedish retailer spread to include Nike, which has previously said it won’t source products from the region due to labor concerns.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying sidestepped a question over whether the government was behind boycotts of H&M and other companies during a regular press briefing on Tuesday in Beijing.

“Some Chinese netizens have expressed their anger over Xinjiang cotton, including on H&M,” she said. “Chinese consumers have the freedom of choice.” -Bloomberg

Internet users, meanwhile, also targeted the Better Cotton Initiative (BCI), a group that promotes sustainable cotton production which said in October it was suspending its approval of cotton sourced from Xinjiang for the 2020-2021 season, citing human rights concerns. BCI members include Nike, Adidas, H&M and Japan’s Fast Retailing. The Xinjiang region supplies some 80% of China’s cotton.

“If you boycott Xinjiang cotton, we’ll boycott you. Either Adidas quits BCI, or get out of China,” one internet user wrote. Nike, Adidas and the BCI did not respond to requests for comment.

The United States and several Western allies have accused the CCP of running internment camps housing up to one million Muslim Uighurs, while China claims it’s combating religious extremism, providing employment, and offering education to improve the ethnic minority group’s lives.

China, meanwhile, punished the EU last week with a list of retaliatory sanctions over the Xinjiang issue – targeting 10 individuals and four entities, including the Mercator Institute of China Studies where Wuttke sits on the board.

On Tuesday, Wuttke said that while the Chinese market “saved” many companies last year as the country rebounded from the pandemic, “at the same time there’s this kind of political pressure.”

Either way, “China definitely doesn’t come out of this looking very pretty.”

end

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

IRAN/RUSSIA/INDIA

Iran touts a land trade corridor to the west that saves time and money and challenges the Suez canal

(zerohedge)

Iran Touts Russia-Iran-India ‘North-South Trade Corridor’ As “Alternative” & Challenge To Suez Canal

 
TUESDAY, MAR 30, 2021 – 11:05 PM

Coming after a ‘successful’ weekend in which sanctions-beleaguered Iran hailed its signing a major 25-year infrastructure and investment agreement with China, Iran’s ambassador to Russia is also touting that a new north-south trade corridor across the region could become a prime ‘alternative’ to the strategic Suez Canal waterway that’s been featured in global headlines due to the ‘Ever Given’ stuck tanker disaster that just played out.

Called the “International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC)” — a two decades in the making ambitious project — the new trade corridor, currently partially in operation, is 7,200km long, linking up Russia, Iran, and India and ultimately accelerating trade with Europe as well.

Commenting on the stuck tanker fiasco in the Suez, Iranian Ambassador Kazem Jalali explained of a potentially less expensive and disaster-prone waterway transport route across Egypt:

“The North-South corridor is a great option to replace the Suez Canal with a reduction in travel times to 20 days and savings of up to 30 percent.”

He further described that the mounting huge costs and fallout from the Ever Given jam disaster (commonly ballparked in the many multiple billions) demonstrates “the need to speed up the completion of infrastructure and the North-South corridor as an alternative to the route through the Suez Canal has become clear and more important than ever.”

 

Getty Images

A regional analysis site, Silk Road Briefing, reviews the recent history of the project as follows:

The INSTC project came into being in 2002, when the transport ministers of Russia, Iran, and India signed an agreement to create a multimodal ship, rail and road-based transport network stretching 7,200 km, from Mumbai, western India to Moscow via Iran and the Caspian Sea. Since then, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Ukraine, Oman, and Syria have all joined the project, and new routes via Azerbaijan and Central Asian countries have been examined to eliminate the need to transfer cargoes from overland-based transport to cargo ships and back…

The claims of reduced transport travel time and cost are often advanced according to these estimates:

The INSTC corridor has been tested, and cuts current transport costs by between 30-60 percent, in addition to reducing the transit time from west India to western Russia from 40 to 20 days. Dry runs of the route carried out in 2014 and 2017 identified potential bottlenecks and confirmed cost and shipping time estimates.

It’s been dubbed in Russian media, even long before the latest Suez crisis, a challenge to the Suez canal. 

Also sometimes compared to the ancient ‘Silk Road’ (the most famous East-West trade route across Asia from antiquity through the Middle Ages) – and somewhat akin to China’s expanding Belt & Road initiative under President Xi, it primarily by rail links two major bodies of water – the Indian Ocean and Persian Gulf – by way of Iran to Russia and northern Europe.

 
 
 
end
 
A great read:
 
How Biden’s push against Putin in the Ukraine may lead to World War iii
 
(Bruce Wilds/Advancing Time Blog) 

Biden’s Ukrainian “Putin Push” May Lead To World War III

 
WEDNESDAY, MAR 31, 2021 – 02:00 AM

Authored by Bruce Wilds via Advancing Time blog,

Biden was in charge of much of the “Ukraine project” during Obama’s time in office.

In recent weeks President Biden has been saying some rather mean-spirited things about Russia’s President Vladimir Putin. Now Russian state sources are alleging that Washington under the Biden administration is ramping up military aid to Ukraine. This comes after the media observed the Ocean Glory, a US cargo ship, began delivering 350 tonnes of military equipment, including tactical vehicles, at Ukraine’s Odessa port. Ukraine’s Dumskaya news agencysaid the American vessel carried at least 35 US military humvees for Ukrainian national forces.

Adding Ukraine to NATO and the EU is a long-held dream of neocons like Victoria Nuland and neoliberals like Biden. This is also important to those supporting the World Economic Forum’s desire to expand the EU and encircle Russia.

They feel such an action would disrupt any dreams of Eurasian integration which could resist their strategy to reshape the way the world is governed. Putin’s foreign policy, coupled with efforts to rebuild the Russian military, has been part of an effort by the former KGB officer to boost Russia’s standing on the world stage.

This has helped make him popular with his people even as NATO has slowly been expanding in the direction of Russia, but also makes him a thorn in the side of the NWO gang.

NATO Has Slowly Expanded Towards Russia

Interestingly, this delivery of military equipment occurred near the time Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, was signing Decree No. 117/2021. The decree activates the Ukraine Army to recapture and re-unify with Ukraine, the autonomous region of Crimea, and the city of Sevastopol. The military has been instructed to use “hybrid warfare” to re-conquer these former parts of Ukraine. In short, this means Ukraine declared war on Russia, certainly something it would never consider without major backing. It must be noted, his actions are in total conflict with his promise to end the now nearly seven-year-long war in eastern Ukraine that played a central role in his election in 2019. This indicates, Zelensky has continued to subordinate his government’s policies to the US- and NATO-led war drive against Russia.

One Ukrainian blogger contends the censorship of the three opposition channels in Ukraine and the surprise inspection of Ukrainian army units in Donbas link all this together and signals a resumption of the Donbas conflict. He wrote on his Telegram channel, “Protecting his rear through censorship, Zelensky ordered to start an inspection of the AFU units in Donbas in order to establish their readiness to carry out the orders of the military command.” He then went on to say, “Didn’t we warn you last year that the regime was preparing for a major war? All we had to do was wait for the green light from higher authorities.”

Upping tensions in the area is the fact the Kerch Strait Bridge, also known as the Crimean Bridge, is now a target and we will certainly see Russian moves to protect it.Comprised of a pair of Russian-constructed parallel bridges it spans the Strait of Kerch between the Taman Peninsula and the Kerch Peninsula of Crimea. The bridge complex provides for both road and rail traffic and has a length of 19 km. This makes it the longest bridge Russia has ever built.

It is difficult not to tie this to the controversial Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline project which Viktor Zubkov, chairman of the board of directors of Russia’s gas giant Gazprom, claims, will definitely be completed this year. Hesaid on Friday, Biden’s goal is to stop the pipeline and the U.S. is now targeting anyone helping the project’s completion in any way. So far, around 90-92 percent of the work required for the project is complete. Earlier this year, Gazprom warned investors that the Nord Stream 2 project could be suspended or entirely discontinued due to extraordinary circumstances, including “political pressure.”

War In Ukraine Is About Money, Energy, And Power!

As to what really motivates the desire to turn Ukraine into a giant-killing field, several possibilities exist but money and profit should not be ruled out. Foreign policy has often been used as a tool to advance national interest which is often dictated by economics. When it comes to the economy energy is often considered the blood from which all strength flows and in the case of Europe the Nord Stream 2 (NS2) pipeline which after completion will carry natural gas from Russia to Germany is a bone of contention. Years ago leaders from Poland, Latvia, and Lithuania signed an open letter to the parliaments of the EU warning them against the construction of NS2 and cautioned them of how it is not a commercial project but one designed to increase their energy reliance on Moscow.

At that time, Russia’s Gazprom supplied the European Union and Turkey with a record 162 billion cubic meters of gas. Of that gas, 86 billion cubic meters flowed across Ukraine. Those opposed to the new pipeline make a strong case that “Gazprom” is not only a gas company but a platform for Russian coercion and another tool for Russia to pressure European countries. The U.S. State Department has even threatened European corporations they will likely face penalties if they participate in the construction of Russia’s Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, on the grounds that “the project undermines energy security in Europe.”

Circling back to the conflict, years ago I wrote a piece that urged America to stay out of a war in Ukraine. It warned of the major advantage Putin held by having a huge well-armed army just across the Ukrainian border and that any army cobbled together to face him would most likely be unenthusiastic and politically troubled at best. At the time President Obama had pulled out all the stops to paint Putin with a brush dipped in all the bad colors. Every Sunday in interview after interview Washington experts were paraded across the screens of the talk shows that tell Americans what is happening in our nation’s capital and every single one of them denounced Putin as a “thug and a bully.”

Ukrainian Soldiers Killed In An Unwinnable War

In that piece were accounts of reports from the front in Ukraine often buried or hidden from public view but they appeared to confirm that Ukrainian troops were being sent into a meat grinderThe drafted include men up to 60 years old with only a month of training before they reluctantly go off to the battlefield in eastern Ukraine. Putting more weapons into the hands of those unmotivated to fight for their corrupt state is merely adding fuel to this fire and doing more harm than good. Again, remember Ukraine is a financially failed state and while we can point to its potential, its massive oil and gas reserves by all rights should belong to the people and for their benefit. The IMF, however, points out that Kyiv needs billion in loans and grants just to stabilize its economy after more than twenty years of massive levels of corruption. This debt and the deep, deep hole Ukrainians have dug themselves into flows from a series of bad governments after Kyiv became independent of the Soviet Union.

Back then, the euro-zone faced a lot of problems without jumping into a proxy war against rebels in Ukraine. I use the term proxy because without the money and backing of outsiders things would most likely go quiet. The failed and bankrupt country of Ukraine would most likely break into two parts with the eastern half and its people who share strong ties with Russia aligning itself with that country and Kyiv, and the western-oriented portion of the country drifting towards stronger ties to the euro-zone. What is the big problem with such a solution? Apparently, a great deal for people like Biden in Washington that are pushing for intervention in Ukraine.

To confuse the issue and muddy the waters great efforts have been made at high levels by those advocating military action to paint Russia as an aggressor. These forces aided by the media continue to link Russias move into the majority ethnic-Russian Crimea region as a violation of Ukraine’s sovereign border. In this case, we should remember, the whole concept of sovereign borders is a little gem promoted by those in power, these borders are a creation of man and not visible to the birds flying above. This is an argument of convenience that masks deeper issues and the difference between “terrorist” and “freedom fighters” often depends on a person’s point of view. In this case, it is clearly the new American-backed government in Kyiv that is pushing to bring the eastern part of Ukraine back into the fold.

What this boils down to is that American companies want to sell and supply Europe with Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) and seem willing to start a war to make it happen.Whether it is for profit orto minimize the threat of natural gas shipments to Europe being cut off and used as a key weapon in Russia’s political arsenal we cannot ignore the idea more is at play here than just doing the “right thing”.Many people in the “Tin Foil Hat” community have gone so far as to indicate they feel that America and elements of the CIA were involved or had a part in the overthrow of the former corrupt Ukraine government and its replacement with another corrupt but more pro Europe regime. At the time even America’s Vice President, Joe Biden, saw his son join the board of a private Ukrainian oil and natural gas company. One thing is clear, not only those involved in selling energy to Europe will profit from this but also the military-industrial complex stands to gain.

The odds of U.S. LNG significantly displacing Russian natural gas shipped by pipeline are slim. Piped gas sells at a large discount to LNG, which must be cooled to liquid form, shipped overseas, and turned back into its gaseous form. Poland recently received its first shipment of U.S. LNG last month from what is currently the only export facility in the lower 48 states.WhileLNG trade between the United States and Europe would help Trump in his bid to reduce the U.S. trade deficit it also stands to improve energy security among the European countries by giving them an alternative to Russian gas. Everyone must concede it is not a cure-all, Russia can easily cut prices and adjust terms to maintain its dominant position in the European gas market and European countries are likely to continue buying most of their gas from the lowest-cost supplier.

Bottom-line, Russia has traditionally been the major supplier of European gas. But it charges high prices, often in the form of long-term contracts linked to the price of oil. The overwhelming dependence on Russian gas leaves European countries from a national security standpoint vulnerable to a cutoff of crucial natural gas supplies. This would be devastating to their economies at any time but even more so in the depths of winter. For these reasons, it makes sense for Europe to consider alternative supplies and open its doors to U.S. LNG but due to Ukraine’s history of corruption flooding the country with weapons and using the people of Ukraine as pawns in this high stakes game violates all standards of human decency.

Americans should also be aware that our current policy drives Russia towards the East and into the open arms of China. This creates even more problems long-term than it solves short-term and borders on the edge of insanity. The war in Ukraine has not developed organically but appears to be the product of meddling. Mercenaries and money from America appear to be backing and propping up Kyiv with America acting as the “champion” for this failed bankrupt country.  The best way for the West and Kyiv to prove they are on the right path is by letting the eastern part of the country seceded and then making Kyiv a center of economic and democratic success.

I reiterate the stand taken in April 2018, the Ukraine war is about money, energy, and power! Since the latest ceasefire agreement in the war in Donbas was implemented in July 2020, it appears few if anyone is being killed. This indicates rocking the boat is a bad idea.

We can only hope those hyping the recent events in Ukraine saying the decree signed by Zelensky will someday be looked back upon at the beginning of World War III are overly pessimistic, after all, when you place two major military powers face to face what could go wrong?

END

Same topic as above

War drums are beating much more loudly now

 
 
 
Robert’s commentary:
 
 
 
Recently, I have written about the growing prospects of war in Europe. 
While we have seen the Ukrainians slaughter themselves in the  past, what now seemingly is occurring is going to result in a much broader conflict with wider spread repercussions than mass Ukrainian deaths. 
The 2 articles links attached outline from differing views of the impending disaster. However it is the NATO connection both in financial and in manpower support that is going to potentially create a situation that will not be contained. And while it is foolish to idly poke the bear, it is that much more naive to do so in the spring.
Yes, you can read and watch the train transport of real weapons to what is likely to be contact lines however let me tell you what concerns me. It is not the Ukrainians foolishly dying for a lost cause nor self destruction. As the Ukraine is already a failed state and as such is beyond repair and everyone knows this.
Russia signals its’ intention by demonstrative action that explains what will happen as Russians do not threaten or boast, they act. What I have seen and gleaned is that they have as of today, activated to high alert status and deployed the RS-24YARS also called the SS -29 in the west. I understand that they have 73 such road mobile and fixed units. These missile systems have a 12,000 KM range with each carrying a minimum of 6 warheads and a maximum of 10. Their preparation time to launch is less than seven minutes. 
While wars are always about money and power when politics is taken to another level, this is truly an insane effort as this goes beyond the realm of competitive action for economic gain as there are no winners in a nuclear exchange. I wondered what the action would be as we watch countries implode with ever increasing debt loads that will not be repaid by broken and shattered economies with the lockdowns that have been imposed. Could it be that war will be used for debt relief as debts are simply abandoned using war as the excuse? What is more concerning is that the clear preparations for war are not limited to a small battlefield. War is not always manageable and the  prospect of a larger disaster looms. And from what is visible now, the time line to war seems very short. Perhaps things could get hot as early this week or the later part of April as the early part of April is usually too rainy for easy tank movements. If in Europe today, one should pray as Easter approaches for peace.
What is really a mystery is, if NATO really gets into a fight over the Ukraine who is not a NATO country and as to whether America would actually defend Europe on a nuclear basis once it embroils itself in a conflict it cannot win. As this would most certainly result in nuclear missiles landing in America. And it is doubtful that either France or Germany have the will to shoulder the burden of such a conflict as both have much more to lose than to gain so we will have to wait to see. As it is, a nuclear war on the continent is bringing the world to brink of destruction for whatever the reason. 
 
 
 

https://southfront.org/no-more-obstacles-for-war-in-ukraine-russia-deploys-troops-in-crimea/

 
 
end

TURKEY/FRANCE

Erdogan to prosecute French journalists for cartoon mocking him

(Jonathan Turley)

Turkey Prosecutes French Journalists For Cartoon Mocking Erdogan

 
WEDNESDAY, MAR 31, 2021 – 05:00 AM

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

In 2015, I wrote a Washington Post column criticizing the world leaders who marched for free speech and the free press after the massacre of editors with from the satirical weekly Charlie Hebdo, particularly the vehemently anti-free speech and anti-free press president of Turkey Recep Tavyip Erdogan. The editors were murdered because the magazine published a cartoon of Mohammad. Seeing the authoritarian Erdogan at the front of the march was the ultimate mocking of these deaths and proof that world leaders cared little for these rights or the 12 dead. Not only did Erdogan’s government follow the march by prosecuting a cartoonist, but now it is seeking long prison sentences for four Hebdo journalists for a cartoon mocking Erdogan.

Erdogan’s authoritarian impulse is only matched by his vanity and sensitivity to criticism.  In this case, Hebdo published a cartoon last year depicting Erdogan looking up a woman’s skirt while drinking beer in his underwear and saying “Ooh, the Prophet.” His government is now seeking four years sentences.

The four journalists have been identified as cartoonist Alice Petit and three managers of the famous magazine – Gerard Biard, Julien Serignac and Laurent Sourisseau. They are charged with the crime of publishing an image that is  “vulgar, obscene and insulting.”

Such publications, even cartoons, are deemed exceptions to free speech or the free press by Erdogan’s government – an exception that obviously swallows both rights.

We have followed the rapid destruction of the secular government and civil liberties in Turkey under the authoritarian rule of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Erdogan used a failed coup to push his effort to create a de facto Islamic regime and to complete his work in arresting his critics, including forcing the resignation of thousands of secular academics, and suspending all civil liberties in a proclaimed state of emergency.

While he has been embraced as an ally, Erdogan opposes the core rights that define our nation. Unfortunately, since the 2015 massacre, many in the United States have move closer to Erdogan’s view of free speech and the free press in calling for greater censorship and speech regulation. Indeed, leading academics had the integrity recently to declare that they believe that “China is right” about censorship.

This prosecution is the true face of not just Erdogan but the growing movement against free speech.

end

6.Global Issues

BILL BLAIN

Bill Blain touches on all the major topics of yesterday and today. Read how Scotland is involved in Greensill with its guarantees

(Bill Blain)

Blain: The Market “Has 1929, 1987, 2000 Writ In Bold Blood Letters” All Over It

 
WEDNESDAY, MAR 31, 2021 – 08:41 AM

Authored by Bill Blain via MorningPorridge.com,

The Tail That Wags The Dog

“Daddy was a bankrobber, but he hurt nobody. He just liked to live that way, stealing all your money”

As Greensill and Archegos roil markets and cause losses, they beg the question – who is next? Why is 2021 turning into the year the scams are unravelling? Will leverage on leverage trigger wider implosion or will it be something else, like liquidity?

Back in the day… Archaos was a terrifying alternative French Circus. They were brilliant and shocking – anarchy on steroids as they juggled chainsaws, played with fire on motorbikes, and ignored the conventions of gravity on the high-wire!

In contrast, the collapse of Archegos Capital is anything but brilliant. It seems to be a  developing theme for 2021: the year the shysters of finance are being revealed as their get-rich-quick schemes unravel. Bill Hwang of Archegos and Lex Greensill share a common trait – being able to insert themselves seamlessly into the game. They have both been exposed – begging the question: Who hasn’t? What other shocks are still embedded in the system?

I could have started this morning’s porridge with a comment about there being something rotten in the state of global finance”but that would be too easy. Everyone in the financial markets is just an actor in the bigger picture, but to understand why market participants act in certain ways and their motivations, or why banks and funds are willing to provide unlimited leverage to clients in overcooked markets, or why bright young bankers enable it, you need to understand the way the institutions work.

There isn’t time for a full sociological analysis of the business, but for the last month we’ve seen a deluge of stories about how unfairly young intern bankers are treated – 100-hour weeks and no sleep, while their bosses use the company jet to holiday in the Caribbean and as a taxi back to the big house in the Hamptons. The bosses play that way because that’s what they learnt back in the 80s. They got rich on big bonuses from extracting value from the system by supplying solutions to financial problems. Everyone wants to be the boss. The interns may whine its unfair – welcome to finance.

In Investment Banking – no one is listening when you scream.

These same put-upon interns today will be the salespeople and bankers of tomorrow looking for opportunities (and commensurate bonuses) from selling their firms solutions to extract value. The markets move very quickly to the next thing: the hedge funds that were once gaming bank capital, before switching into distressed assets, are now offering to provide leverage – and charging for it. In a world of 0.15% bond yields, clients need leverage to pay the bills. They’ve discovered that leverage on leverage generates returns and big pay-checks.

Unlike the Bankrobber in this morning’s quote who “hurt nobody”, the financial chicanery rife in markets causes substantial harm. The financial press is writing all about the losses suffered by the banks that didn’t dump their Archegos positions fast enough, and explaining parallels with the 1998 collapse of Long-Term-Capital-Management, but few folk are wondering how a 40% collapse in the stock price damages that firm’s long-term prospects, and blights the careers of its workers. (An opportunity to buy back stock cheaper?) Few folk are talking about the pension savers who’ve been impacted.

Few folk are talking about why there is an ongoing blight of complex, barely legal manipulation of complexity across financial markets. You can guarantee there are more dangers out there than just the leverage on leverage of the Archegos saga, or dressing up dull-boring-predictable supply chain finance as high-return/risk-free long-term assets by Greensill.

Apparently the largest 100 unregulated “family offices” hold over $150 billion in assets. Add that to the sheer scale of the essentially unconstrained shadow-banking system of funds, and the potential for mayhem is apparent. The ever-increasing complexity of financial regulation, the legions of risk officers and the compliance mentality encouraged across finance, was supposed to address the issues of financial players gaming the systems.

Hardly.

One thing trumps regulation every time. Returns.

Since the last big financial crisis that began in 2007, ultra-low interest rates have been the dominant force on markets. Returns is why investment funds exist. The desperation of investors to garner any real returns is simply driving greater and greater complexity as the investment banks and other bad actors seek to profit from the insatiable demand for returns. Their apparent success and the plethora of implausibly successful investments (from EV makers, virtual art, SPACs and whatever-nexts), has sucked in more and more marks – because everyone wants to make returns.

I was talking to a fund manager y’day who told me her kid’s nanny has lost money on Bitcon – bot high and sold low. As Ben Graham might have said; “when the shoe-shine boy tells you he’s bought Ethereum and digital NFTs, its time to sell.”

The current market has got 1929, 1987, 2000 writ in bold blood red letters all across it.

Yet, that won’t stop us gaming the market. The consensus is nothing will change until central banks let rates rise. Sure, the 10-year Treasury may be headed for 2%, (currently 1.73%), but the Central Banks aren’t going to let a sudden rise panic markets, triggering a meltdown that would crush recovery?

The losses experienced by Credit Suisse, Nomura, MUFG and others from Archegos are painful, but not terminal. But what if happens again, and then again? As it threatened to do in 2008. Could we see another run on just how levered the financial system is? It’s another reason Central Banks are so anxious to avoid a meltdown.

It now looks like the massive losses for Nomura and Credit Suisse were triggered when Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs took the decision to jump early and sell their exposures, leaving the other “prime-brokers” providing Archegos leverage on leverage holding the can. Bear in mind Wall Street is not club. It’s a Pack.

Wounded pack members don’t last long. In 2008 my old firm Bear Stearns was first to go, snapped up by JP Morgan for pennies after the rest of Wall Street declined to support it. It was payback – in 1998, Bear made the call not to support the other investment banks caught the wrong side of the LTCM meltdown. When Lehman went down in 2008, the fact none of the Pack trusted it’s CEO, Dick Fuld, was a primary reason no-one wanted to buy it.

Meanwhile, I wonder just how seriously a leverage crisis may morph into the next piece of the problem – a liquidity crisis.

Let’s return, for a moment, to the other big scam – Greensill. Its looking inevitable its demise will shortly trigger default by its main client – the Gupta owned GFC Alliance.

I understand a single large UK pension fund, M&G holds the entire £370 mm Lagoon Park financing, arranged by Greensill and marketed by Morgan Stanley, of the GFC Alliance’s purchase of the Lochaber Aluminium Smelter and Hydro Power station. Initially it only bought 50% of the deal, but then acquired the rest when GAM sold its portion. You may recall GAM suffered “difficulties” when a fund manager was suspended over transactions connected to Greensill, which triggered a massive run from investors demanding their money back.

The investment management team at M&G will not be unconcerned about the deal. But not because Gupta will default – but because the deal is guaranteed by the Scottish Government. They will be worried about the credit outlook for Scottish debt rated Aa3 as part of the UK if the SNP succeeds in a second independence referendum.

A heavily redacted report by EY, (and I mean practically everything is blacklined – do read the overview of the transaction on page 7), on the Scottish Guarantee says the deal made commercial sense, but makes clear that if the smelter failed it becomes a liability of the Scottish Government.

The Scottish Guarantee is extraordinary – it is granted in favour of SIMEC (Sanjeev Gupta’s father’s business in Singapore) in respect of obligation by Liberty (part of GFC) to pay for energy from the hydro scheme. In the event of a default, the Scots will pay. Incidentally, I further understand Scotland has the right to borrow or guarantee £2 bln, according to my sources in London.

The obvious question to ask is why did Scotland guarantee the deal? Whoever thought Nicola Sturgeon and former UK Premier and Greensill employee David Cameron could be so aligned?

Gupta’s promised wheel factory and jobs never materialised. The Scot’s liability to pay isn’t just the £370mm principal amount, it’s also a further 25 years of interest payments – say £500 mm in total. Well done Scotland – 25% of its borrowing limit blown already – the SNP really are financial geniuses.  The security package backing the guarantee? A smelter in Lochaber non one except the Gupta’s were interested in.

The really interesting thing about this Lagoon Park deal is how liquid these bonds are – despite the fact I suspect M&G is the only holder. I am told by an external investor he believes these bonds trade regularly. According to Bloomberg, there are regular prices posted. I wonder.. could it be that brokers supportive of the deal are posting imaginary prices between themselves?

It would a crying shame if it turned out that wholly illiquid bonds were being painted as liquid. I mean, what would the regulators think of a fund holding illiquid bonds that were described as liquid so they appear eligible as liquid UCITS eligible investments? A shade of Woodford? Naughty – if it was happening…. Ahem..

I am absolutely sure all these junk bonds and corporate debt deals held by fund managers will prove illiquid as set concrete if/when the market’s day of reckoning arrives…

end
 
Maersk
 
Maersk suspends many short term booking as the Suez backup strains capacity
(zerohedge)

Maersk “Suspends” Many Short-Term Bookings As Suez Backup Strains Capacity 

 
WEDNESDAY, MAR 31, 2021 – 11:05 AM

The Suez Canal blockage’s ripple effect on the global supply chain has forced Maersk to suspend bookings of short-term contract shipments in many export markets. 

Maersk published a customer advisory this week to inform clients the Suez Canal blockage for six days has heavily impacted its supply chain and significantly reduced capacity. As a result, the world’s largest shipper is suspending bookings of short-term contracts to deal with capacity deficiencies. 

“We have earlier communicated that even when reopened, the blockage of the Suez Canal would have ripple effects on global supply chains for weeks to come,” Maersk said in a customer advisory.

“However, expecting a significant loss in capacity over multiple weeks, depending on market dynamics, we have decided to temporarily cease short term bookings placed via Spot, as well as short term contracts this week and in the immediate future, in these geographical services, the advisory continued. Spot is Maersk’s online booking platform for container shipments.

According to Seatrade Maritime News, the shipper’s suspension of short-term bookings appears to be worldwide: 

The suspension of spot and short-term contracts affects all exports out of Asia which Maersk said was due to expected equipment shortages.

It also covers exports out of West Central Asia to Europe and North Africa, North America East Coast, West Africa via Mediterranean, and Latin America via Mediterranean.

The suspension impacts exports out of Europe to Asia, Middle East and Indian Sub-Continent, and Oceania.

It covers North American exports to Middle East and Indian Sub-Continent, and East Africa, and exports from Latin America from East Coast South America to Middle East and Indian Sub-Continent and Asia via Mediterranean, and from Central America and West Coast South America to Middle East and Indian Sub-Continent.

The suspension also impacts exports from East Africa to Europe, and West Africa to Asia, Middle East and Indian Sub-Continent via Mediterranean.

Maersk told customers the suspension is “only temporary so that we may quickly move existing laden cargo and empty containers to the areas they are most needed. “

Days ago, the shipper warned, “even when the canal gets reopened, the ripple effects on global capacity and equipment are significant.” It could take upwards of a week for normal shipping to resume across the canal.  

The Suez Canal’s near-week closure and the massive build-up of vessels waiting to transit the world’s most important waterway is straining the already highly stretched global supply chain. There’s also “enormous legal issues” mounting. 

end
 

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

BURMA (MYANMAR)
USA evacuates all non emergency embassy staff and families from Burma
(zerohedge)

US Evacuates All ‘Non-Emergency’ Embassy Staff & Families From Myanmar As Death Toll Hits 500

 
WEDNESDAY, MAR 31, 2021 – 09:15 AM

On Tuesday evening the US State Department issued an advisory for all non-emergency government employees and their family members to evacuate Myanmar. It comes after last month closer to the start of the coup crisis which began with the military seizing control on Feb.1 and junta crackdown against protests the State Dept. made departure “optional”.

“The Burmese military has detained and deposed elected government officials,” the department in the written statement, using Washington’s preferred old naming for Myanmar. “Protests and demonstrations against military rule have occurred and are expected to continue.”

“The Department of State made the decision to authorize ordered departure from Burma because the safety and security of US government personnel and their dependents, as well as private US citizens is the Department’s highest priority,” a State Department official further said.

 

Via The Guardian

The spokesperson added the embassy “will remain open to the public and continues to provide a limited range of consular services to both US citizens and visa applicants due to Covid-19 restrictions.”

Clashes between security forces and protesters, which have for weeks seen police and military unleash live ammunition on anti-coup demonstrators, has now resulted in over 500 people killed since the start of the crisis. This includes the bloodiest weekend so far, with 141 people killed on Saturday alone.

German international broadcaster Deutsche Welle (DW) writes “The death toll in Myanmar’s military crackdown on anti-coup demonstrators has reached 510, the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners (AAPP) confirmed on Tuesday, warning that the true toll might be higher.”  

There’s now growing calls for outside international powers to “do something” beyond mere sanctions, with online activists even going so far as to call for military intervention against Myanmar’s army.

The latest Western action has been as follows

On Monday, the United States suspended a trade deal with Myanmar, demanding the restoration of a democratic government.

The US, Canada, Britain and the European Union had imposed sanctions on Myanmar’s military generals. International organizations, including the United Nations, have continuously condemned the crackdown.

Meanwhile China has been accused by opposition voices on the ground of quietly aiding the junta, despite the Chinese embassy’s official denials.

Widespread anger over China’s alleged role in providing political cover and support for the junta has resulted in dozens of arson attacks against Chinese-owned factories and business inside the country, which Beijing has vehemently condemned, calling for police to protect them.

 
 
END

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings WEDNESDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1727 UP .0004 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS//CORONAVIRUS/PANDEMIC/TRUMP POSITIVE WITH VIRUS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /ALL MIXED

USA/JAPAN YEN 110.78 UP 0.474 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.3767  UP   0.0016  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/

USA/CAN 1.2606 DOWN .0015 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  WEDNESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE BY 4 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1737 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE DOWN 14,76 PTS OR 0.43% 

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 199.15 PTS OR .84% 

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.95%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL MIXED

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL  MIXED

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 239.20 PTS OR 0.70% 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 14.76 PTS OR 0.43% 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.95% 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 253.90  POINTS OR 0.86%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1684.00

silver:$24.02-

Early WEDNESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 1.723% !!! UP 0 IN POINTS from TUESDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

The 30 yr bond yield 2.385 UP 1  IN BASIS POINTS from TUESDAY night.

USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 93.34 UP 14 CENT(S) from  TUESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers WEDNESDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing  WEDNESDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.22% DOWN 1 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.10.%  UP 1   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.33%//DOWN 2 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:  0.66 DOWN 3 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 33 points higher than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.29% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 0.95% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR WEDNESDAY

Closing currency crosses for WEDNESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1741 UP     .0017 or 17 basis points

USA/Japan: 110.56 UP .255 OR YEN DOWN 26  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3786 UP .0040 POUND UP 40  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar UP 50 basis points to 1.2572

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The USA/Yuan,  CNY: closed    ON SHORE  (UP).. 6.5527

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.750  (YUAN UP)..6.5637

TURKISH LIRA:  8.34  EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.10%

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 1 IN basis points from MONDAY at 1.716 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.367 DOWN 1 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 93.15 DOWN 15  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for WEDNESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 58.49 OR  0.86%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 0.27 POINTS OR 0.00%

Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 20.81 POINTS 0.34%

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 15.20 POINTS or 0.18%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN  12.17 POINTS OR 0.05%

WTI Oil price; 60.92 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 64.18 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE RISES:    75.55  THE CROSS HIGHER BY 0.29 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE HIGHER BY 29 BASIS PTS)

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.29 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OILPRICE 4:30 PM : 59.17//

BRENT :  62.88

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 1.735..up 1 basis points…

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.406 UP 2 basis points..

EURO/USA 1.1726 ( UP 4   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:110.72 UP .411 (YEN DOWN 49 BASIS POINTS/..

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 93.24 UP 6 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.3785 UP 39  POINTS

the Turkish lira close: 8.25

the Russian rouble 75.62   UP 0.22 Roubles against the uSA dollar. (UP 22 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.2566  UP  56 BASIS pts

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.29%

The Dow closed DOWN 85.41 POINTS OR 0.26%

NASDAQ closed UP 194.51 POINTS OR 1.51%


VOLATILITY INDEX:  18.88 CLOSED down 0.73

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 0.201%//libor dropping like a stone

USA trading today in Graph Form

Bitcoin & Black Gold Soared In Q1, Treasuries Suffer Biggest Loss In Over 40 Years

 
 
WEDNESDAY, MAR 31, 2021 – 04:00 PM

For the fourth straight quarter, US stocks dramatically outperformed Treasuries…

Source: Bloomberg

S&P gained over 6% as Treasury’s total return fell over 4%…

Source: Bloomberg

And despite all of JPM’s wailing of massive rebalance flows, Small Caps and Big-Tech have soared this week (as bonds were dumped)…

Trannies were the best-performing major index in the US in Q1 (up 17%), followed by Small Caps (+12%). The last couple of days melt-up in big-tech dragged then positive for the quarter (Nasdaq 100 +2%)…

Source: Bloomberg

This is the 4th straight quarterly gain for US stocks in a row.

Cyclicals (up for the 4th straight quarter) dominated Defensives (up 10% vs 3.5% in Q1)…

Source: Bloomberg

Value stocks (+10% – 4th straight quarterly gain) dramatically decoupled (higher) from growth stocks (+2.4%) from Mid-Feb…

Source: Bloomberg

Energy stocks soared 30% in Q1 (after rising 26% in Q4) and Tech underwhelmed (but was still higher in Q1…

Source: Bloomberg

The “Most Shorted” stocks in the US markets soared a stunning 33% in Q1 leaving hedge funds scrambling (after the GME debacle) for a modest 3.6% gain in their most-owned stocks…

Source: Bloomberg

HY Bond prices ended Q1 lower – the first quarterly loss since Q1 2020’s crash…

Source: Bloomberg

The entire Treasury complex was sold in Q1 but the long-end was an utter bloodbath with 10Y yields up 80bps!!

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury’s Total Return in Q1 was worst since Q3 1980.

Source: Bloomberg

5Y Yields have soared recently and hover now at the 2016 spike lows…

Source: Bloomberg

After 3 straight quarterly losses, the dollar surged in Q1 to its highest since early November…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold’s worst quarter since Q4 2016 (and worst Q1 since 1982) as the precious metal plunged from almost $1960 at its early January highs to almost $1675 at its lows this week…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold surged back above $1700 today though ahead of Biden’s infrastructure bill announcement…

Source: Bloomberg

Oil surged over 25% in Q1, its best quarter since Q2 2020…

Source: Bloomberg

But we note that WTI tumbled back below $60 this afternoon as Macron unveiled a new 4-week long total national lockdown in France (ahead of tomorrow’s OPEC+ meeting)…

Cryptos all soared in Q1 with Bitcoin surging over 100% in Q1 – its 4th quarterly gain in a row; and Ethereum exploding 150% in Q1 – its best quarter on record…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin flash-crashed $3,000 overnight but buyers bid it all the way back up during the day session…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, we note that global aggregate central bank balance sheets went absolutely nowhere in Q1, hardly supportive of ‘stonks’ and perhaps why Nasdaq also went absolutely nowhere.

Source: Bloomberg

Get back to work Mr.Powell.

a)Market trading/this morning/USA

b)MARKET TRADING/USA//THIS AFTERNOON

 
 

ii)Market data/USA

Private ADP employment data disappoints in March

(ADP)

ADP Employment Data Disappoints In March, Service Sector Jobs Soar

 
WEDNESDAY, MAR 31, 2021 – 08:24 AM

With some economists forecasting a stunning 1.8 million jobs for Friday’s payrolls print, all eyes are on ADP’s employment data (for all its noise), which is estimated to come in at +550k after last month’s disappointing +117k. However, ADP disappointed with the addition of ‘just’ 517k jobs.

This is the 3rd straight month of gains since the drop in December.

Source: Bloomberg

“We saw marked improvement in March’s labor market data, reporting the strongest gain since September 2020,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP.

All segments (size-wise) saw employment gains with small- and medium-sized businesses seeing the biggest pick ups.

Job gains at service-providing firms dominated goods-producing firms (+437k vs +80k)

Job growth in the service sector significantly outpaced its recent monthly average, led with notable increase by the leisure and hospitality industry. This sector has the most opportunity to improve as the economy continues to gradually reopen and the vaccine is made more widely available. We are continuing to keep a close watch on the hardest hit sectors but the groundwork is being laid for a further boost in the monthly pace of hiring in the months ahead.”

So will we see 1.8mm jobs added on Friday?

end.

Rising interest rates causes pending home sales to crash.

(zerohedge)

Pending Home Sales Crash In February; Weather, Rates, Inventory Blamed

 
WEDNESDAY, MAR 31, 2021 – 10:06 AM

Following the unexpected plunge in new- and existing-home sales, analysts expected a 3.0% MoM drop in pending home sales to round out the dismal housing data in February. Instead – mimicking the huge drops in thge other segments of the housing market, pending home sales crashed 10.6% MoM (the biggest drop since April). Worse still, pending home prices are now back down 2.7% YoY…

Source: Bloomberg

That completes the triple whammy of collapse in the home sales market…

Source: Bloomberg

Surging home prices and low inventory are slowing the pandemic-era housing boom, evidenced by declines in contract signings in all four U.S. regions.

By region, contract signings fell the most in the South, where winter storms curtailed business activity and led to a 13% slump in pending home sales. In the Midwest, sales declined 9.5% and in the Northeast they fell 9.2%. In the West, they decreased 7.4%

In addition, severe winter weather limited purchases during February. At the same time the average rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage has been increasing, which may affect buyer demand in the coming months. Contract signings were down 2.7% from the same period in 2020 on an unadjusted basis.

“The demand for a home purchase is widespread, multiple offers are prevalent, and days-on-market are swift but contracts are not clicking due to record-low inventory,” Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the NAR, said in a statement.

As Wolf Richter details in his latest report at WolfStreet.com, we suspect that these are the first signs that higher mortgage rates are impacting the housing market.

Mortgage refis have dropped since January, driven by a sharp drop in no-cash-out refis; cash-out refis have also dropped, but less so, for a reason we’ll get to in a moment. This chart shows the Mortgage Bankers Association’s mortgage refi index:

No-cash out refis “are already seeing large volume declines,” according to a report by the AEI Housing Center, which pointed out that due to the higher rates, fewer loans are “in the money.”

Cash-out refis are also down but only modestly, “as these borrowers are driven more by cash needs than rates,” the AEI report said.

The chart by the AEI Housing Center shows the weekly no-cash-out refis in 2021 (light-blue line, left scale) heading south, and in 2020 (brown line); it also shows the median mortgage rate in 2021 (dark blue line). The time line indicates the weeks of the year:

The AEI’s weekly Home Price Appreciation index, while still up a massive 14% year-over-year, has started to back off tad: at one point in early February, it was up over 17% year-over-year.

The “decreased buying power” due to the rising interest rates is “already having a limited effect in slowing HPA,” The AEI said. “The somewhat lower HPA in week 10 of 2021 looks to be the first sign of this trend.”

But the AEI added that “a loan rate of 4% might, due to severe supply constraints, still result in an unsustainable HPA rate of 8%-11%.”

Mortgage applications for the purchase of a home have also declined from the peak in mid-January:

So it seems from this weekly data that the housing market remains red-hot, but the higher mortgage rates, which remain ultra-low by historical measures, have already started dialing down the heat.

*  *  *

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iii) Important USA Economic Stories

Biden releases Phase one of his Infrastructure bill.  The first phase $2.25 trillion  and it has massive tax hikes

(zerohedge).

White House Unveils Details Of Biden’s $2.25 Trillion Infrastructure Plan, Massive Tax Hikes

 
WEDNESDAY, MAR 31, 2021 – 09:30 AM

After weeks of waiting with investors hanging on every new detail, President Joe Biden is expected to unveil the first part of his sweeping economic reform/redistribution plan on Wednesday afternoon.

As Biden’s press secretary Jen Psaki revealed over the weekend that Biden and his team are planning to unveil his sprawling “Build Back Better” plan in two parts: The first part of the “Build Back Better” plan, which will be officially unveiled later today, is expected to focus on rebuilding “roads and railways” while the second part, which will be released “in just a couple of weeks”, will focus on “social infrastructure” funding, including childcare and healthcare initiatives.

Details of the plan have been leaking out at a steady pace for weeks, although some of the details reported earlier have been changed. According to the leaked 25-page document obtained by the NYT, Biden’s “American Jobs Plan” will “invest in America in a way we have not invested since we built the inter-state highways and won the Space Race.” The plan, which will carry a $2.25 trillion price tag (that’s more than 2/3rds of the $3 trillion marked for “BBB”)per the Washington Postwill finance the rebuilding of 20K miles of road, repairs to the 10 most economically important bridges in the country, and the elimination of lead pipes and service lines from the country’s water supplies. In total, the plan features $50 billion “in dedicated investments to improve infrastructure resilience”.

The plan also includes a long list of other projects intended to create millions of jobs, with the goal of strengthening America’s long-term competitiveness. The plan will also address Biden’s climate change priorities, by hastening the shift to new, cleaner energy sources, and would help promote racial equity in the economy. The plan includes $16 billion to fund a program to retain fossil fuel workers to transition to new work (we imagine they’ll take to learning to code like a fish to water).

Fortunately for Tesla, its shareholders and – most importantly – its CEO, Elon Musk, the plan proposes an additional $46 billion in federal procurement programs for government agencies to buy fleets of electric vehicles, and $35 billion in research and development programs for cutting-edge, new technologies. While more competitors are making their own EV vehicles, Tesla remains the market leader.

Here’s a breakdown of the innards of the $2 trillion proposal reported in the NYT (courtesy of Newsquawk):

  • USD 180bln for research and development

  • USD 115bln for roads and bridges

  • USD 85bln for public transit

  • USD 80bln for Amtrak and freight rail

  • USD 174bln to encourage EVs via tax credits and other incentives to companies that make EV batteries in the US instead of China

  • USD 42bln for ports and airports

  • USD 100bln for broadband

  • USD 111bln for water infrastructure

  • USD 300bln to promote advanced manufacturing

  • USD 400bln spending on in-home care

  • USD 100bln in programs to update and modernize the electric grid

  • USD 46bln in fed procurement programs for government agencies to buy fleets of EVs

  • USD 35bln in R&D programs for cutting-edge, new technologies

  • USD 50bln in dedicated investments to improve infrastructure resilience

  • USD 16bln program intended to help fossil fuel workers transition to new work

  • USD 10bln for a new “Civilian Climate Corps.”

In theory, at least, a sweeping infrastructure plan should have strong bipartisan support. But as we learned during the Trump Administration, political priorities can easily scuttle even the most popular package, and while Democratic opposition helped transform Trump’s “infrastructure week” into a punchline, the GOP – and a handful of East Coast Democrats – are already digging in their heels over taxes.

Here’s a quick rundown of how Biden plans to pay for it all via massive tax hikes, some of which (like the corporate tax hike) have already been reported:

  • Eliminate tax preferences for fossil fuel companies

  • Raise the corporate tax rate to 28% from 21%

  • Overall taxation of profits earned oversees by US megacorps (including raising minimum tax on global profits and eliminating several provisions that allow companies to reduce US tax liability)

  • Ramp up enforcement of large companies avoiding taxes

  • Prevent American companies from “inversions” to tax havens

  • Eliminate loopholes that encourage offshoring

  • Deny expense deductions for companies that are offshoring jobs

Readers can learn more from a White House “fact sheet” released Wednesday morning that includes detailed breakdowns of the Biden infrastructure plan, and the associated tax plan.

Republicans and business groups have already attacked Mr. Biden’s plans to fund the spending with corporate tax increases, which they say will hurt the competitiveness of American companies. In addition, several Democrats including NY Rep. Tom Suozzi and New Jersey’s Josh Gottheimer, have insisted that they will oppose the infrastructure package unless Biden repeals a Trump-era limit on state and local tax deductions known as the SALT deduction.

These Dems actually have a lot of pull, and could end up getting their way. Because, as a team of analysts at Deutsche Bank pointed out in a note to clients this morning, Biden can only afford to lose 3 Democrats in the House, and zero Dems in the Senate, if Republicans oppose the plan on a party-line vote.

“Policymakers should avoid creating new barriers to job creation and economic growth,” said Joshua Bolton, the president and CEO of the Business Roundtable, a top business lobbying group.

Biden will unveil the plan during a Wednesday press conference in Pittsburgh. He’s expected to start speaking at 1630ET, after the market day has come to an end. And with markets mostly closed on Friday, Thursday’s session will be critical for parsing the market’s reaction to the Biden plan.

The plans as announced have a long and tortuous journey to make it through Congress and thus the end result is likely to be nine months or more away and may well look very different indeed once it has been through that political wranglings on the Hill,” said James Athey, investment director at Aberdeen Standard Investments. “If investors are weighing the risks appropriately, there shouldn’t be much impact on markets in the short term.”

end

“Largely As Expected”: Goldman Recaps Biden’s Infrastructure Plan

 
WEDNESDAY, MAR 31, 2021 – 02:25 PM

Following our earlier preview, Goldman’s chief political economist Alec Phillips is out with his own post-mortem of the White House infrastructure bill which he says was “mostly as expected”, proposing around $1.7 trillion/10 years in investment in physical capital and R&D. Another $500bn would go to workforce incentives and Medicaid benefits.

As Phillips continues, the proposed corporate tax increases were also largely as expected and would cover around half of the spending over the next ten years. Goldman believes that the White House will propose increasing capital gains and individual top marginal rates even though these were not in today’s plan, and expects the spending from this plan to take a few years to ramp up, with its forecast already assuming a spending path similar to what we believe would occur under this proposal.

Below we excerpt the key points from the Goldman report:

1. The White House proposes to spend roughly $2.2 trillion over ten years.  The Administration expects most of this spending to be complete after 8 years. This appears to be mostly new money with less double-counting of existing spending than in last year’s $1.5 trillion House bill.  Of the $2 trillion, around $558bn appears to go to traditional heavy infrastructure projects like highways, transit, water, and sewer. Another $374bn would go to high-tech areas, such as broadband, grid modernization and clean energy and storage, and electric vehicle-related spending.$378bn would go to the building and upgrade of residential and non-residential structures. R&D and manufacturing incentives would total $480bn. $500bn would be dedicated to caregiving and workforce development. These numbers all look generally similar to the Biden campaign proposals.

2. The spending from this plan would likely take a few years to ramp up. We have noted before that increases in traditional infrastructure funding often take a few years to reach the higher run rate, with a rule of thumb being that an increase in federal funding of $1 in one year increases federal spending by only about $0.40 the following year. That said, some of the spending could happen more quickly. For example, tax incentives to the private sector to install recharging stations for electric vehicles might spur investment more quickly, as might some of the federal procurement programs.  Taking the White House description at face value, the plan would average around $275bn (1.25% of GDP) over the next 8 years. Using the rule of thumb just noted, this would suggest that it could boost federal spending by a little over $100bn (0.5% of GDP) next year, and perhaps $150-200bn (0.7%) in 2023. This is similar to the additional infrastructure spending we assume in our economic forecast.

3. The types of spending the plan includes indicates which proposals the President believes are most important.  The plans includes mostly investment in physical infrastructure, but also around $500bn in various benefits including a substantial increase in Medicaid spending. This is despite the fact that the White House has already indicated that the President will announce a second proposal in April dealing with “human infrastructure.” To the extent that the White House believes Congress will consider these plans separately, with this plan passed first and the second piece to follow, it suggests that the benefit programs in this proposal are a higher priority than the child care, health care, and education proposals that the President will propose next month.  That said, it will be up to Congress to decide how to pass this proposal and whether to combine it with any other proposals the President might make in April.

4. The plan would be paid for with corporate tax increases that the Administration says would fully offset the 10-year cost after 15 years.  The key elements of the tax proposal are:

  • A 28% corporate rate. President Biden proposed this during the presidential campaign. Each percentage point of corporate tax rate increase raises a little over$100bn over ten years in tax revenue, so this proposal would raise between $700-800bn/10 years. We think Congress can raise the rate to 24-25%, but might start to run into resistance among centrist Democrats between 26% and 28%.

  • Tightening GILTI. Similar to the Biden campaign proposal, the White House proposes to raise the effective tax rate on Global Intangible Low Tax Income (GILTI) to 21% from an effective rate of 10.5% today, move the system to a country-by-country basis that would keep companies from using tax credits from high tax jurisdictions to offset GILTI earnings in low tax jurisdictions, and rescind the policy that applies the tax to income only above a 10% return on physical capital. This would mean that the GILTI regime would apply to most companies with foreign income rather than just to IP-intensive industries like healthcare and technology, and would likely also raise taxes for companies that currently have little to no GILTI exposure. The Tax Policy Center estimated the campaign proposal would raise $442bn over ten years.

  • Other international tax changes. The White House release appears to contemplate replacing the Base Erosion and Anti-Abuse Tax (BEAT), saying that it would replace “an ineffective provision in the 2017 tax law that tried to stop foreign corporations from stripping profits out of the United States.”  It also proposes to eliminate Foreign Derived Intangible Income (FDII), which encouraged US-based companies to hold their IP in the US by setting an effective tax rate on that income similar to the effective tax rate on IP held abroad and taxed through the GILTI regime.

  • A minimum tax on book income. The proposal would also establish a 15%minimum tax on corporate book income reported to investors, which would serve as a check against companies that report large profits to shareholders but no profits to the IRS. The campaign proposal would have applied this globally on a country-by-country basis, but the White House release indicates only that it would apply this only to “the very largest corporations.”

  • New restrictions on inversions. The White House does not define what this would be, but inversions are likely to play a larger role in tax policy if the rest of the proposal were to pass, as the US would then have a high tax on the foreign earnings of multinationals compared with most other developed countries that rely on mainly territorial tax systems.

5. Capital gains and individual tax changes are absent from this proposal but are likely still coming. This proposal only deals with corporate taxes.  However, we still expect the White House to propose other tax increases, like an increase in the long-term capital gains rate and a higher top marginal rate for individuals.  In theory, these other taxes would go to pay for other forthcoming proposals dealing with child care, health care, and education. However, these other taxes could come into play to offset some of the cost of an infrastructure package, for two reasons. First, it looks likely that Congress will scale back some of the tax proposals the President will outline today, leaving lawmakers looking for other sources of savings. Second, it is unclear whether a third major fiscal package will actually pass, and congressional leaders might ultimately decide to combine today’s proposal with elements of the other package the President plans to propose in April.

6. This proposal is likely to pass through the reconciliation process. This would allow the package to pass with only 51 votes (and probably only Democratic votes) in the Senate. President Biden has emphasized an interest in working with Republicans on this package, but this looks very unlikely as he is also proposing to dismantle nearly all of the biggest piece of legislation that congressional Republicans passed when they had control of Congress.  The only opportunity for bipartisan support we see is the surface transportation component of the package, which might need to be split off from the rest because elements of it might not be able to pass through the reconciliation process. However, this is more of a technicality and Republicans look unlikely to have much influence over the total amount of spending. If Democrats use the reconciliation process to pass President Biden’s fiscal proposals, they will need to decide whether to pass a single reconciliation bill that combines today’s infrastructure proposal with the other proposal Biden looks likely to outline in April, or to leave the two proposals separate and pass infrastructure first, with a separate reconciliation bill following later this year. Either is possible, but we believe it is more likely that Democratic leaders will decide to pass a single reconciliation bill to avoid forcing their members to take two separate votes to raise taxes.

7. Full details in May.  The White House will release additional budget details this week when it submits the discretionary spending portion of the annual budget proposal to Congress. However, the full details of what the White House will propose on fiscal policy are likely to wait until May, when the full budget comes out. From there, two processes could move in parallel. First, the committees with jurisdiction over the various programs involved are likely to write detailed legislation. Second, at some point in May and perhaps not until June, the House and Senate are likely to pass another budget resolution that lays the groundwork for the next fiscal package. Specifically, that resolution will need to instruct the relevant committees to increase or decrease revenues, spending, and/or the deficit by specific amounts. This will set the overall parameters for the legislation, which the individual committees might have in some cases already drafted. In light of this potential schedule, it looks unlikely that the next major fiscal legislation will reach the President’s desk before late July or early August, and there is a good chance it could take until September, after Congress returns from the August recess.  

Appendix: The “American Jobs Plan”

  • Traditional transportation infrastructure: The President proposes to spend an extra $447bn on transportation infrastructure. This includes $115bn for highways (a roughly 40% increase over the 10-year baseline), $85bn for transit (70% over the baseline), $80bn for passenger rail (many times the current run rate, though similar to the $60bn proposed in last year’s House Democratic bill), $25bn for airports (a 75% increase), and $17bn for waterways and ports.

  • Transportation electrification: The White House proposes $174bn in funding for electric vehicles (EVs). This figure includes point-of-sale consumer rebates and tax incentives to purchase US-made EVs and establish grants for the state and local sector and tax incentives for the private sector to build a network of 500,000 charging stations. This figure also includes the cost of replacing 50k diesel transit vehicles (i.e., buses) and replacing the postal vehicle fleet.

  • Clean water: The White House proposes $111bn for clean water initiatives. He proposes $45bn for the Drinking Water State Revolving Fund, more than the $25bn in last year’s House proposal and substantially more than the roughly $10bn/10yr baseline. $66bn would go to other water improvements, also an increase over the$40bn in last year’s House bill.

  • Broadband: The White House proposes $100bn in funding, similar to last year’s House proposal and the Biden Campaign’s proposal. This would provide funding to expand coverage in underserved areas and would prioritize non-profit and government-affiliated providers.

  • Electricity modernization: The White House proposes $100bn in funding. Among the proposals are an investment tax credit for high-voltage capacity power lines, and an extension and phase-down of the investment tax credit and production tax credit for clean energy generation and storage.

  • Affordable housing: The White House proposes $213bn in spending to build and retrofit affordable housing units. This looks comparable to the $189bn in last year’s House bill ($100bn in spending, $89bn in tax incentives).

  • Building schools: The President proposes $100bn to upgrade and build schools, similar to last year’s House proposal and the campaign proposal.  An additional $12bn would go to community college capital projects.

  • Health and child care construction: The White House proposes $25bn to upgrade child care facilities, $18bn for VA hospitals, and $10bn for federal buildings. This is slightly more than what House Democrats proposed last year.

  • Caregiving incentives: The President proposes $400bn in funding to expand access to home- or community-based care for the elderly and people with disabilities. The Medicaid program would be the primary vehicle for this.

  • R&D incentives: The President proposes $180bn in R&D funding, including $50bn for the National Science Foundation (NSF), $30bn in other incentives, and $40bn in federal funding for upgrading research plant and equipment, including computers and networks, and would be allocated to federal research agencies including the Department of Energy.  An additional $30bn would be devoted to climate-related research, and $25bn to research at historically black colleges and universities.

  • Manufacturing incentives:  The White House has proposed $300bn in manufacturing incentives, including $50bn to support production of critical goods,$50bn for semiconductor research and manufacturing incentives, $30bn in pandemic preparedness, $46bn in federal procurement of clean power-related products, $52bn to subsidize manufacturers, including bringing back something similar to the Advanced Manufacturing Tax Credit, and $31bn for small business credit and R&D assistance.

  • Workforce development: The White House proposes $100bn for job training, apprenticeships, and other programs.

The real inflation number.

(Mish Shedlock/Mishtalk)

Hello Fed, Inflation Is Rampant And Obvious; Why Can’t You See It?

 
WEDNESDAY, MAR 31, 2021 – 10:45 AM

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,

Year-over-year home prices are up 11.2%, some cities even more. The Fed does not see this or count it if they do. Let’s discuss why.

Home Prices Rise at Fastest Pace in 15 Years

Home prices are running rampant. The national level average year-over-year increase is 11.2%.

Prices have accelerated in the past few months. I discussed the year-over-year acceleration in Home Prices Rise at Fastest Pace in 15 Years

National and 10-city averages do not tell the full story as the lead chart shows. 

Inflation Disconnect

Owners’ Equivalent Rent

OER stands for Owners’ Equivalent Rent. 

Prior to 2000, home prices, Owners’ Equivalent Rent (OER), and the Case Shiller national home price index all moved in sync.

This is important because home prices directly used to be in the CPI. Now they aren’t. Only rent is. 

Yet, OER is the Single Largest Component of the CPI with a weight of 24.07%.

In effect, economists substituted rent for home prices in the CPI. Prior to 2000, this did not matter. Now it seriously distorts measures of inflation.

The rationale is home prices are a capital expense not a consumer expense. 

What Should We Measure?

What is it we are measuring or need to measure? 

I suggest we need to measure inflation, not just consumer inflation. 

Home Prices, OER, and CPI Percent Change

Year-Over-Year Percent Changes

  • National Home Prices: 11.2%

  • 10-City Average: 10.9%

  • OER: 2.2%

  • CPI: 1.4%

The CPI allegedly is up a mere 1.4% from a year ago as of January 2021. Let’s calculate inflation by substituting home prices for OER in the CPI as it used to be.

I call the result CS-CPI for Case-Shiller-CPI.

CPI, CS-CPI National, CS-CPI Top 10

Economists claim inflation is up a mere 1.4% year-over-year as of January 2021. 

If we substitute home prices for OER as it used to be (and is far more accurate as well), inflation is up 3.8% from a year ago. 

Having calculated inflation far more accurately than widely believed (yet still understated), we can calculate real interest rates

Real Interest Rates

To determine “real” interest rates, subtract CPI from the Fed Funds Rate.

  • Real Interest Rate as Touted: -1.31%

  • CS-CPI 10-City: -3.59%

  • CS-CPI National: -3.67%

Q&A

Q: With real interest rates close to -4% is it any wonder asset prices and speculation are booming?

A: No

Q: Why can’t the Fed see this?

A: Possibly the Fed can see this. If so it’s on purpose.

The Fed wants inflation and numerous Fed members are openly in praise of it.

Easy Money Quote of the Day: Fed “Won’t Take the Punch Bowl Away”

On March 25, I noted the Easy Money Quote of the Day: Fed “Won’t Take the Punch Bowl Away”

Numerous Fed presidents made speeches. I awarded gold, silver, and bronze medals for the best “easy money” quotes.

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly won the gold medal. She said the central bank would show at least “a healthy dose” of patience. ”We are not going to take this punch bowl away,” said Daly.

Does the Fed Understand What They Are Doing?

I don’t know. Either the Fed is blindly ignorant of what’s going on, or it’s on purpose. Take your pick.

The result is a big set of bubbles, whether the Fed sees them or not. 

2% Inflation Target

The Fed’s 2% inflation target is monetary insanity.

Full speed ahead with the stimulus in search of inflation that would be visible to anyone who was not wearing groupthink blinders.

I have a set of questions for Fed Chair Jerome Powell on inflation. Please read them: Hello Jerome Powell We Have Questions.

Historical Perspective on CPI Deflations

A BIS study of deflations shows the Fed’s fear of deflation is foolish.

Deflation may actually boost output. Lower prices increase real incomes and wealth. And they may also make export goods more competitive,” concluded the study.

For discussion, please see Historical Perspective on CPI Deflations: How Damaging are They?

Japan has tried what the Fed is doing now for over a decade, with no results.

Yet, Powell is hell bent on producing more than 2% inflation until the strategy “works”.

I discuss numerous ways Powell is on the Bank of Japan’s path in Is the Fed Blindly Following Failed Policies of the Bank of Japan?

What Would I Do?

For the answer, please see Reader Question: What Would I do Differently Than the Fed?

end

Michael Every on the above Biden spending plus other major topics

(Michael Every)

Some Perspective: We Are Talking 2% Of 2021 US GDP In Public Investment For A Decade

 
WEDNESDAY, MAR 31, 2021 – 10:15 AM

By Michael Every of Rabobank

The Construct-It Show

“It’s time to face the music; It’s time to tax at new heights; It’s time to finally build stuff, on the Construct-It Show tonight;

It’s time to put pigs in makeup; It’s time to dress it all up right; It’s time to raise the curtain on the Construct-It Show tonight;

Why do we end up here?; I guess we all should know; Will it really be a kind of torture; To have to watch the show?;

And now let’s get things started –Why don’t you get things started?– It’s time to get things started;

On the most sensational, inspirational, celebrational, infrastructurational; This is what we call the Construct-It Show!”

(Gonzo blows his trumpet pathetically)

Roll up, roll up! Today is the day when the White House releases its infrastructure plan. Will it be USD3 or 4 trillion over 10 years? As Professor Bunsens and Beakers do the number crunching, I will be more of a Statler and Waldorf. What I can say from my box seat is that there are several huge questions and implications associated with this Construct-It Show.

Could it pass? Even using reconciliation for a second time this calendar year, it would take ALL Democrats to back it. Is that possible? It seems a stretch – but not necessarily impossible. Of course, if it doesn’t pass, then all we have is the current sugar high…and then the post-sugar crash.

If even some of the proposed tax hikes (corporate taxes up from 21% to 28%; taxing offshore corporate profits; making the wealthy pay income tax, not 20% capital gains tax; raising the top income tax bracket) make it through, it’s going to be *big* stuff for the US and global economy – and US equities. (New Zealand just did it though.) That does make it less likely to pass. So let’s presume it can only get through on the spending side: that would take us from ‘No MMT’ back into MMT territory.

To put the scale of what is being proposed here into perspective, we are talking about either 1.5% or 2% of 2021 US GDP each year in public investment for a decade. Can you see what that is going to do to US growth?! And not only US, as without ‘Buy American’ much of that capital will also flow out to the rest of the world via imports – which isn’t what the White House wants. Yes, it would probably take more than just ‘Buy American’ to stop stimulus leaking – but don’t expect it not to happen over a decade. Shifts in the Overton Window are a key act in this Construct-It show: from free trade to qualified protectionism via Republicans; and from sound money to mega-stimulus via the Democrats. Even the Great Gonzo would be proud – and it’s Gonzonomics to follow, at least as far as neoclassical Bunsens and Beakers are concerned.

For that Sam the American Eagle of the Fed, a new stimulus bill would present a major challenge to its view that nothing needs to be done on rates for years. In which case, would US yields be allowed to rise “because growth”, even if that meant equities went down? Or would the Fed still do YCC (and MMT) “because markets”? Note that despite historical warnings of ‘excessive exuberance’, which Kaplan echoed yesterday, the Fed’s pattern of behaviour has been to ensure that stocks, not bridges, go up. But perhaps the Show is under new management now?

Let’s then imagine where the USD would sit with GDP growth of 4% and 10-year yields at 4%, for a hypothetical example (higher!); and where it would sit if the same stimulus and growth sees yields artificially capped at 1.50% (lower!). Can you see the wild ride markets could be about to set out on? It’s really quite the Show!

It’s unclear how the Swedish Chefs at the ECB (“We pooot de PEPP in de poot”) would be prepared for this US recipe. They can “bork, bork, bork!” all they like, but it’s something they can’t control – just hope any US stimulus lifts their booot.

Likewise, the giant Sweetums of the PBOC, overseeing an economy where there don’t appear any post-2021 GDP growth targets, and some view the sustainable level of GDP growth being as low as 2-3%, could face a US economy outgrowing it for a decade, and potentially with higher yields too. Where would that put CNY? Today’s fixing was 6.5713, so the direction is already clear – in which case those who know think: pork, pork, pork!

Meanwhile, as the Construct-It Show rolls out, bridges are being burnt, not built, in geopolitics:

  • China has introduced sweeping changes to the political system in Hong Kong, which the US press describes as “part of Beijing’s efforts to consolidate its increasingly authoritarian grip over the territory”;

  • The US, UK, Australia, Canada, and 8 other countries have signed a document criticizing the WHO report into the origins of the coronavirus pandemic in Wuhan, implicitly accusing China of “withholding access to complete, original data and samples”. Even WHO head Dr. Tedros has stated the investigation was “not extensive enough”, and that there should be continued examination of the theory that the virus escaped from a lab. Wasn’t that enough to get one censored from social media a few months ago(?);

  • The US has again accused China of “genocide and crimes against humanity” in a human rights report, which also calls out Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Myanmar. The US has also expanded the number of areas it will now call out abuses over;

  • The Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China suffered a serious cyber-attack yesterday; and

  • China’s Global Times argues that the EU Parliament will still pass the EU-China investment deal because “It is believed that the business community will eventually stand up to the narrow-minded moves of the political class. The CAI may need to go through some rounds of competition and wrestling, but the final adoption of the deal is an inevitable outcome, given the fact that it’ll not only benefit China and Europe but also the entire world.” Yet the GT also warns the EU that “recklessly leaning toward the US would ultimately hurt [them]” – which is counterproductive.

And these are only the acts that made the final cut. In short, globally we are set to see far more of Animal and Crazy Harry. Which makes neoclassical Beakers do this.

Meanwhile, returning to the Construct-It theme, what is the alternative to either no stimulus, or state-led stimulus? Try Australia, where building permits today were up 21.6% m/m vs. 3.0% expected. What’s an RBA to do? Nothing is the answer. And, tragicomically, the same is true for the Aussie financial regulator APRA, which has now publically added Completely Redundant to its title. In recent testimony it openly claimed that hot house prices, which are so hot it is hard to fathom, are “not our job”(!) Even the Australian Financial Review notes: “Nothing to worry about? Maybe APRA chief should attend an auction.” Honestly, is this really any better/more sustainable a model of capitalism, even if it sells more tickets to some crowds?!

And *there’s* the sound of Gonzo’s pathetic trumpet.

END

ARCHEGOS

Deutsche bank sells out early approx. 4 billion dollars of collateral//securities related to the Archegos fallout. The total so far: 30 billion dollars/

(zerohedge)

SEC Opens Probe Into Archegos Chaos, Deutsche Bank Confirms ‘Quick Sale’ To Avoid All Losses

 
WEDNESDAY, MAR 31, 2021 – 03:45 PM

As more details from the now infamous debacle surrounding Tiger cub Archegos, whose massive derivative-based exposures spilled out into the open and transformed into the biggest and most painful rolling margin call to hit Wall Street since Lehman, we now know that at least six Prime Brokers scrambled to unwind the biggest hedge fund blowup since LTCM without hammering the overall market.

To “make a living in this business… be first, be smarter, or cheat…”

We previously noted that Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs were the “first” to break ranks and rejected the efforts of Credit Suisse’s emissaries who tried to create consensus to unwind the positions without sparking a panic.

As we now also know, Nomura and Credit Suisse which dithered and were unsure what to do, seeing their stock crushed and their counterparty risk hedge premia explode higher.

And today we get confirmation that Deutsche Bank was among the early game-theoretical defectors, as Bloomberg reports the big German bank sold about $4 billion of holdings seized in the implosion of Archegos Capital Management in one large private deal on Friday.

It’s unclear whether Deutsche Bank’s sale was to one firm or a consortium. If it was a single buyer, it would be the largest known transaction to emerge from the messy unwind of Hwang’s huge portfolio.

It also brings to almost $30 billion the known value of Archegos investments that have been liquidated so far.

Deutsche Bank joins Wells Fargo in the group of prime brokers that – reportedly emerge unscathed from this debacle.

And now, as is usual after a a major market blowup, The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has initiated a preliminary investigation into Bill Hwang over his leveraged trades that have roiled Wall Street.

Bloomberg reports that, according to a person familiar with the matter, who asked not to be named because the inquiry isn’t public, the examination is in its early stages and is being led by the asset-management group in the SEC’s enforcement division.

As a reminder, it’s not the first time that Hwang has been in the SEC’s crosshairs.

In 2012, his former hedge fund, Tiger Asia Management, pleaded guilty and paid more than $60 million in penalties after the SEC and U.S. prosecutors accused it of trading on illegal tips about Chinese banks. Hwang opened Archegos, a family office, following the sanctions, as the SEC kicked him out of the hedge fund industry by banning him from managing money on behalf of clients.

We look forward to seeing what they will do this time? And perhaps more notably, will this have a systemic impact on the entire Total Return Swap/Contracts-For-Difference market in US equities that flies under the regulatory radar (and as we have just witnessed in the case of Hwang, can lead to enormous unknown risks to the financial system).

Guatemala declares an emergency as a new migrant caravan bound to the uSA may be forming

(zerohedge)

 

Guatemala Declares Emergency As New Migrant Caravan Bound To US May Be Forming 

 
TUESDAY, MAR 30, 2021 – 10:25 PM

Guatemalan President Alejandro Giammattei declared emergency measures Monday along the Guatemala–Honduras border as new reports suggest a new migrant caravan may be forming in Honduras, according to Associated Press News

The emergency order declares mass gatherings and demonstrations illegal for the next 2-5 weeks in five Guatemalan provinces that border Honduras. 

In a statement, the Guatemalan government defended the new public health order by saying, “groups of people could put at risk the life, liberty, security, health, access to justice, peace and development” of Guatemalans. A similar order was announced in January to squash previous migrant caravans. 

Threats of another migrant caravan from Honduras with plans to travel to the US come as a US-Mexico border crisis worsens in recent months. The number of migrants attempting to cross into the US has surged, with at least 100,000 arrested in February.

A flood of migrants has been racing towards the Mexico–US border under the Biden administration after President Biden said he’ll reverse former President Trump’s immigration policies and allow many migrants a pathway to citizenship. 

But this has severely backfired for the Biden administration as chaos at the border would see over 13,000 unaccompanied migrant children detained in federal custody, nearly one-third of whom have been sitting in the same ‘cages’ built by the Obama-Biden administration, and 3,000 of whom have been held beyond the 72-hour legal limit.

The border crisis is worsening by the day as President Biden told migrants to stop coming to the US after begging Mexico’s president to help stem the flood of illegal migrants. The surge of migrants has overwhelmed the federal government’s ability to process them.

Days ago, Oklahoma Sen. James Lankford (R) gave a first-hand account of the chaos at the US-Mexico border – joining Texas GOP Sens. Ted Cruz, and John Cornyn for a tour of the deteriorating border conditions. Lankford tweeted pictures of the US’ migrant camps. 

Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador was recently quoted as saying President Biden’s immigration policy encourages illegal immigration, thus enriching cartels through human trafficking operations at the US border. Cartels are making $14 million per day, smuggling people into the US. 

Many of the migrants reaching the US-Mexico border are fleeing violence, drugs, and corruption in Honduras. With the threat of another caravan forming, the Biden administration might want to reconsider finishing President Trump’s border wall instead of halting construction. 

end

CORONAVIRUS UPDATE /

US Reports Most New COVID Cases In A Month With Blue States In The Lead

 
TUESDAY, MAR 30, 2021 – 09:45 PM

At this point, the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and the various mutant strains has been accelerating for five weeks as restrictions on businesses and movement have been relaxed. Over in the US, which ceded its position as the worst outbreak in the world to Brazil back in February, when the 7-day average for Brazil’s daily tally per million population topped the US’s for the first time.

While the outbreak in Latin America’s largest economy continues to spin out of control, the US on Tuesday reported just under 70K new cases, the highest number in a month, as infections rise in half of US states, with some of the biggest accelerations seen in New York, New Jersey and Michigan. Over the past week, the average number of new cases has risen by 24%, according to Johns Hopkins data. 25 states and Washington DC are reporting more cases.

Fortunately deaths continued to slow, with the US reporting fewer than 1K deaths.

Source: mSightly

11 states are currently in the highest “risk level” for COVID, nearly all of them are northeastern blue states (aside from Michigan and Minnesota, although both of those states are also run by Democrats).

Source: mSightly

The increase comes even as the US is vaccinating nearly 3MM people a day, and with practically every state preparing to open vaccinations to adults of all ages, if they haven’t already.

Michigan is leading average new cases with a 14% rise over the past week and a 208% increase over the past month.

Cases in New York have risen by nearly 10% over the previous week and the test positivity rate has remained above 3% for the last month

New Jersey recorded 346.4 cases per 100,000 people over the last seven days, the highest rate in the nation.

Circling back to the national numbers, while the current rate is far below January’s peak of 247K new cases per day, it is in line with the July surge, where daily cases averaged about 68,000.

The numbers complement the head of the CDC’s warnings about “impending doom”, which were widely ridiculed yesterday. In his latest warning, Dr Nicholas Reich, a biostatistician at the University of Massachusetts Amherst, warned “we’re skating on a knife’s edge right now.”

“We have so much to look forward to, so much promise and potential of where we are and so much reason for hope,” she said. “But right now, I’m scared.”

New York is the states where coronavirus is spreading the fastest “on a per-person basis.”

Meanwhile, red states like Texas, which have been the focus of mainstream media attention as their governors have reopened their economies, and even though vaccination rates are lagging some of their northern peers, infection rates haven’t bounced back like they have in New York, Michigan and other states like Connecticut.

Unsurprisingly, the rebound in New York – centered around NYC – hasn’t stopped Gov. Andrew Cuomo from pressing ahead with his plans to reopen the state’s economy. Yesterday, the governor announced that the vaccine eligibility age would drop to 30 as of next Tuesday, Cuomo said earlier that college sports could welcome back fans on Friday, albeit with relatively restrictive social distancing numbers.

end

VACCINE UPDATE

IN USAA NEWS today”

https://ussanews.com/News1/2021/03/30/covid-19-vaccines-likened-to-software-updates-for-your-body/

i.e. – the mRNA given in the covid treatments remain outside the cells and now are controlling ones DNA and our 37.2 trillion human cells in doing whatever this mRNA dictates to compromise health. Add fear and remove love of fellow humans and one will quickly deteriorate in health.
Our bodies  create only 6 billion new human cells per day. It only takes 60 billion cancer cells to create a tumor.
SGermany’s inflation rate accelerates in March to the highest level [2% y/y] in nearly 2 years, driven by a jump in fuel costs https://t.co/o44AJIYFBm 

end

JNJ vaccine

Reaction To COVID-19 Vaccine Caused Man’s Skin To Peel Off: Doctors

 
WEDNESDAY, MAR 31, 2021 – 02:45 PM

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

A reaction to Johnson & Johnson’s COVID-19 vaccine caused a severe rash that eventually led to a man’s skin peeling off, doctors and the man said.

“It all just happened so fast. My skin peeled off. It’s still coming off on my hands now,” Richard Terrell, 74, of Virginiatold WRIC.

Terrell received the shot earlier this month but was soon forced to go to the Virginia Commonwealth University’s (VCU) Medical Center for treatment.

The issues began appearing four days after the injection. Discomfort turned into an itchy rash that began to swell.

Graphic photographs show how Terrell’s legs and feet turned bright red as swelling intensified.

“It was stinging, burning, and itching,” Terrell said.

“Whenever I bent my arms or legs, like the inside of my knee, it was very painful where the skin was swollen and was rubbing against itself.”

Fnu Nutan, a dermatology hospitalist at VCU, said doctors determined what happened to Terrell was a reaction to the vaccine.

“We ruled out all the viral infections, we ruled out COVID-19 itself, we made sure that his kidneys and liver was okay, and finally we came to the conclusion that it was the vaccine that he had received that was the cause,” Nutan told WRIC.

“Lots of patients come in and say ‘I got the vaccine, here’s what happened, I’m sure it’s the vaccine,’” Nutan added to Fox News. “We’re very careful when we see such patients, we want to make sure we have ruled out the more common causes of the reaction—most commonly it would be antibiotics or something he took, even over-the-counter.”

Tests done on Terrell included ones for viral illnesses, COVID-19, and adenovirus.

Nutan said the reaction, which likely had to do with Terrell’s genetic makeup and the vaccine type, is extremely rare and that she still recommends people get a COVID-19 vaccine.

“If you look at the risk of getting the virus versus the benefit of getting the vaccine, the risk-benefit is still highly in favor of the vaccine,” she said.

Johnson & Johnson, VCU, the Virginia Department of Health, and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) did not respond to requests for comment.

Drug regulators authorized Johnson & Johnson’s shot last month.

As of March 30, 96 million Americans have received at least one COVID-19 vaccine dose. According to the passive reporting Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS), 1,005 reports of skin issues following vaccination have been lodged in the United States. In total, there are 160,137 reports of adverse effects following vaccination.

Federal authorities, including the CDC, say they’re monitoring reports of severe allergic reactions, including by following up on reports from VAERS. Anaphylaxis, or severe allergic reaction, post-COVID-19 vaccination is rare, occurring in two to five people per million vaccinated in the United States, the CDC says on its website.

“This kind of allergic reaction almost always occurs within 30 minutes after vaccination. Fortunately, vaccination providers have medicines available to effectively and immediately treat patients who experience anaphylaxis following vaccination,” it states.

iv) Swamp commentaries

end

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories./ of the day.

Bonds declined sharply from the Nikkei’s 2nd Session until bottoming at 3:44 ET.  The ensuing rally was largely money managers marking up their hemorrhaging bond positions to embellish Q1 performance.

Low Rates Fuel Biggest Home Price Surge Since February 2006
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller index of national property values climbed 11.2% [y/y]
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-30/low-rates-fuel-biggest-u-s-home-price-surge-since-february-2006

@Schuldensuehner: ECB balance sheet…total assets rose by whopping €343bn… as banks took €315bn in TLTRO loans and ECB kept buying more bonds to quell a rise in long-term rates. ECB Balance sheet now >€7.5tn, equal to 75% of Eurozone’s GDP   https://t.co/GzPmKLvVGY
     The biggest experiment in monetary history is being continued. What we are looking for is the point at which confidence in the ECB collapses because they overstretch their balance sheet. Total assets now account for >75% of the Eurozone’s GDPhttps://t.co/oRYXVZFqhchouldn’t be too long before mRNA treatments produce their desired 4th Industrial Revolutionary effects

Gold got hammered, which occurs regularly at month/quarter end as the big entities that are typically short gold force it lower.  The dollar rallied on Tuesday, which helped drive precious metals and industrial commodities lower.

Fed’s Quarles: The Fed Can Be Content with Inflation Rates over 2% – BBG
Fed’s Quarles: New Fed Framework Means Don’t Jump the Gun to Tighten – BBG

Fed’s Quarles says regulators to lay out money market fund reforms in July https://t.co/xy7MIgxkfR

Corporations, wealthy pay in Biden infrastructure plan, not drivers and riders https://t.co/a1Wwvd0swX

21 Senate Democrats urge Biden to put recurring stimulus checks, unemployment aid extension in recovery plan  https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/30/stimulus-check-update-senators-push-biden-to-send-recurring-payments.html

Biden Urged to Spend $4 Trillion by Labor, Environment Groups
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-30/biden-urged-to-spend-4-trillion-by-labor-environment-groups
Biden Declines Invitation to Throw Nationals’ First Pitch on Opening Day
One can only imagine how a Biden first pitch would go…
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/biden-declines-invitation-throw-first-pitch-opening-day

EU Analyst: Biden Appears Mentally Unfit for Office
“The way he answered questions was mediocre at best because for extensive periods of time he was looking down, going through his notes… There was Biden seemingly forgetting names of people, places and agencies, and forgetting topics that had just been discussed a few seconds before.”  Netten said a weak U.S. president poses a threat to security and stability of the whole world… Netten went on to say Biden’s recent performance in office is raising concern all over the world because U.S. affairs appear to be uncertain for many countries.   https://www.oann.com/eu-analyst-biden-appears-mentally-unfit-for-office/

Bidens’ rescue dog Major involved in another biting incident – The victim “needed to stop in order to receive treatment from the White House medical unit,” White House says.
https://justthenews.com/government/white-house/bidens-rescue-dog-major-involved-another-biting-incident

@HuXijin_GT [CCP conduit]: Kremlin spokesman: No one will allow US to speak to Russia from position of strength https://t.co/4rOMKmuFxn

Hunter Biden blockbuster: Memos detail quiet effort to assist indicted Ukrainian oligarch
At time, his father’s administration considered Dmitri Firtash a fugitive felon.
https://justthenews.com/accountability/russia-and-ukraine-scandals/tuehunter-biden-involved-effort-assist-indicted

@RonPaul: Socialism & Fascism are two sides of the same totalitarian coin, with the latter being an offshoot of the former. While Socialism preaches the State being the sole owner of the means of production, Fascism preaches a partnership of State (Power) and Corporations (Money).  Socialism leads to rapid ruin, while Fascism leads to a longer and drawn out ruin. The destination is the same regardless of the speed in getting there. Freedom and free markets are the only escape from this totalitarian vice.

@AdamSchefter: [NFL boss] Roger Goodell said the plan is to welcome back fans in 2021. “We want to see every one of our fans back,” Goodell said. “We expect to have full stadiums in the coming season.”

NFL Commissioner Goodell is at odds with Biden and his Doom & Gloom Covid team.  How will big blue state governors that are still in some stage of lockdowns react to the NFL in coming months?

Last night, Politico: Tomorrow, Biden is Expected to Mention a Corporate Tax Rate Hike to 28%
[Wall St wanted & funded Biden; now live with Team Biden’s policies!  Nice tradeoff for mean tweets!]

CBP warned Biden admin of massive surge if Trump policies were reversed: Texas congresswoman https://t.co/jZzaGLSPIV

 

An FBI So Corrupt It Lets Mass Shooters Rampage Needs to Go- While the FBI has been failing to stop terrorist attacks by known threats, it has conducted numerous political operations on behalf of Democrats. It’s time to clean house.   https://t.co/BFQGExD1Pp

US Navy tells staff on ‘extremism’ training course they can advocate for BLM at work but they are NOT allowed to discuss ‘politically partisan issues’

  • US Navy described BLM as a ‘public policy issue’ in training slides on ‘extremism’
  • They said advocating for BLM was allowed as long as behavior was lawful
  • But Navy stated that advocacy would be prohibited if it was ‘politically partisan’

https://t.co/Nx7AdvmYZm

@MorningAnswer: An ID is required to vote in: Canada, France, Germany, Israel, Finland, Greece, Hungary, India, Italy, the Netherlands, and Norway.  Does this mean all of these countries are “racist” for requiring an ID to vote?!

 
 

 

To all our Jewish friends out there, I wish you a very Happy Passover week

 

I will see you THURSDAY night.

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