APRIL 5/GOLD SURPRISINGLY HOLDS, DOWN ONLY $1.65 TO $1727.95//SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TO $24.76//GOLD TONNAGE ADVANCES FOR APRIL DELIVERY TO: 79.082 TONNES//SILVER ADVANCES TO 14.205 MILLION OZ// ANOTHER 2 TONNES LEAVES GOLD COMEX//1.122 MILLION OZ LEAVES SILVER COMEX//A MASSIVE 118,000 OI CONTRACTS STILL REMAIN OPEN FOR MAY SILVER DELIVERY//CORONAVIRUS UPDATE//VACCINE UPDATE/INVERMECTIN UPDATE//CHINA VS USA//UKRAINE VS RUSSIA UPDATES//IRAN VS USA MEETING UPDATE//USA FRIDAY JOBS REPORT: MEDIA REPORTS IT IS STELLAR//IN REALITY NO!//FACTORY ORDERS IN USA DROP BADLY LAST MONTH//ARCHEGOS UPDATE: PAM AND RUSS MARTENS AND A MUST READ TOM LUONGO//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

GOLD:$1727.95 DOWN $1.65   The quote is London spot price

Silver:$24.76 DOWN  $0.14   London spot price ( cash market)

your data…

 

Closing access prices:  London spot

i)Gold : $1728.20 LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

ii)SILVER:  $24.88//LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

PLATINUM AND PALLADIUM PRICES BY KITCOL

 

 

PLATINIUM  $1208.00 DOWN $4.00

PALLADIUM: 2575.00 DOWN $11. PER OZ

 

James McShirley on the pricing of gold eagles/and silver eagle33

Even the TV pundits are now asking, without bothering to investigate, “what’s wrong with gold?” Yes indeed, what’s wrong with gold, other than a relentless daily cartel assault on PAPER gold. The physical coin premiums are widening out to spot. Gold Eagles are showing $200+ to spot, Silver Eagles $10+ to spot, if you can even find them. Supply and demand- fuggettaboutit. The more dollars printed the more valuable they become, and the more scarce gold and silver are the lower their prices go, so sayeth the Working Group.

Jim McShirley

Editorial of The New York Sun | February 1, 2021

end

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THE FINAL COMEX DATA PROVIDED BY THE CME IS CORRUPTED AND TOTAL GARBAGE’
I AM USING THE PRELIMINARY AND FINAL EFP’ NUMBERS ISSUED FIRDAY MORNING.
HOPEFULLY THE CROOKS (cme) CAN CORRECT THE DATA FOR TOMORROW.  THE NUMBERS WILL BE CLOSE. 
 
 

COMEX DATA

 
 
 

COMEX DATA

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

receiving today  470/832

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: APRIL 2021 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,726.500000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 04/01/2021 DELIVERY DATE: 04/06/2021
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
072 H GOLDMAN 185
099 H DB AG 318
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 18
624 C BOFA SECURITIES 1
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 43
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 481 17
661 C JP MORGAN 469
661 H JP MORGAN 1
686 C STONEX FINANCIA 11
709 C BARCLAYS 57
737 C ADVANTAGE 4
800 C MAREX SPEC 27 13
880 H CITIGROUP 8
905 C ADM 5 6
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 832 832
MONTH TO DATE: 20,893

ISSUED: 0

Goldman Sachs:  stopped:  185

 
 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  APRIL. CONTRACT: 832 NOTICE(S) FOR 83,200 OZ  (2.587 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  20,893 NOTICES FOR 2,089,300 OZ  (64.986 tonnes) 

SILVER//APRIL CONTRACT

 

79 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 395,000  OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month: 2429 for 12,45,000  oz

BITCOIN MORNING QUOTE  $57,676   DOWN 1193

BITCOIN AFTERNOON QUOTE.:  $59,032 UP 163 DOLLARS  

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

GLD AND SLV INVENTORIES:

GLD AND SLV INVENTORIES:

Gold

WITH GOLD DOWN $1.65  AND NO PHYSICAL TO BE FOUND ANYWHERE:

WITH ALL REFINER CLOSED//MEXICO ORDERING ALL MINES SHUT:   WHERE ARE THEY GETTING THE “PHYSICAL?STRANGE!

A  HUGHE  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//:  A PAPER  WITHDRAWAL OF 4.67 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD FROM GLD.

WITH RESPECT TO GLD WITHDRAWALS: 

GOLD IS “RETURNED” TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHO ARE CALLING IN THEIR LEASES: THE GOLD NEVER LEAVES THE B OF ENGLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BANK IS PROTECTING ITSELF IN CASE OF COMMERCIAL FAILURE

THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD!!

GLD: 1,032.83 TONNES OF GOLD//

Silver

AND WITH NO SILVER AROUND  TODAY: WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS

NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//

 

WITH REGARD TO SILVER WITHDRAWALS FROM THE SLV:

THE SILVER WITHDRAWALS ARE ACTUALLY “RETURNED” TO JPM, AS JPMORGAN CALLS IN ITS LEASES WITH THE SLV FUND.  (THE STORY IS THE SAME AS THE BANK OF ENGLAND’S GOLD). THE SILVER NEVER LEAVES JPMORGAN’S VAULTS. THEY ARE CALLING IN THEIR LEASES FOR FEAR OF SOLVENCY ISSUES.

INVENTORY RESTS AT:

575.124  MILLION OZ./SLV

xxxxx

GLD closing price//NYSE 161.90 DOWN $0.08 OR  0.04%%

XXXXXXXXXXXXX

SLV closing price NYSE 23.09 DOWN $0.06 OR 0.26%

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

 
 

 

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Let us have a look at the data for today

THE COMEX OI IN SILVER ROSE BY A  STRONG SIZED 2896 CONTRACTS FROM 151,403 UP TO 154,299, AND CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020. THE GAIN IN OI OCCURRED WITH OUR  $0.42 RISE IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX  ON THURSDAY. IT SEEMS THAT THE GAIN IN COMEX OI IS  DUE TO A HUMONGOUS BANKER AND ALGO  SHORT COVERING !//HUGE REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//.. COUPLED AGAINST SMALL EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. WE ALSO  HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AS WE GAINED A STRONG 3296 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. 

 

WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A SMALL  NUMBER OF  COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 400,, AS WE HAD THE FOLLOWING ISSUANCE:  MARCH  0 MAY:  400 AND ZERO ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE 400 CONTRACTS. THE BANKERS ARE NOW BEING BITTEN BY THOSE SERIAL FORWARDS (EFP’S CIRCULATING IN LONDON)AS THEY ARE NOW BEING EXERCISED AND COMING BACK TO NEW YORK FOR REDEMPTION OF METAL.  THE COST TO SERVICE THESE SERIAL FORWARDS IS HIGH TO OUR BANKERS  BUT THEY HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO ISSUE A FEW OF THEM!

HISTORY OF SILVER OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR THE PAST 33 MONTHS.

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

7.32     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

2.630     MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOV.

20.970   MILLION OZ  FINAL STANDING IN DEC

2020

5.075     MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JAN

1.480    MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN FEB

23.005  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAR** 

4.660  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR APRIL****

45.220 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAY***

2.205  MILLION OF FINAL STANDING FOR JUNE

86.470 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JULY…RECORD HIGHEST EVER

6.475 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN AUGUST

55.400 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN SEPT

8.900 MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT.

3.950 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN NOV.

46.685 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR DEC.

2021

6.890 MILLION FINAL STANDING FOR JAN 2021

12.020  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR FEB 2021

58.425 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MARCH 2021//2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED

14.205 MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING FOR APRIL

 

THURSDAY, AGAIN OUR CROOKS USED COPIOUS PAPER TRYING TO LIQUIDATE SILVER’S PRICE …AND THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN ,(IT ROSE BY $0.42) OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS WERE   UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE ANY SILVER LONGS AS  WE HAD A NET GAIN OF 3296 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES, THE MAJOR CAUSE WAS DUE TO i)HUMONGOUS BANKER/ALGO SHORT COVERING// WE ALSO HAD  ii) STRONG REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//.    iii)  A SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANG EFOR PHYSICALS 2) A SMALL INCREASE IN SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER // APRIL: 14.025 MILLION OZ, iv) STRONG COMEX OI GAIN AND iv) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION //.YOU CAN BET THE FARM THAT OUR BANKERS  ARE DESPERATE TO LIQUIDATE THEIR HUGE SHORT POSITIONS IN SILVER..

 
 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

APRIL

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY /FOR MONTH OF MAR:

925 CONTRACTS (FOR 3 TRADING DAY(S) TOTAL 925 CONTRACTS) OR 4.625 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 308 CONTRACTS OR 1.541 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF MAR: 4.625 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON.

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF MAR:  4.625 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON.

JAN EFP ACCUMULATION FINAL:  113.735 MILLION OZ

FEB EFP ACCUMULATION FINAL:   208.18 MILLION OZ (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

MAR EFP ACCUMULATION SO FAR: : 103.450 MILLION OZ  (DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//FEARS OF EFP CONTRACTS BEING EXERCISED FOR METAL)

APRIL: 4.625 MILLION OZ  (SILVER IN BACKWARDATION AND THUS SLOWER ISSUANCE OF EFP’S)

RESULT: WE HAD A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 2896, WITH OUR  $0.42 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ///THURSDAY .…THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A SMALL SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 400 CONTRACTS WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS.

TODAY WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 3296 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES (WITH OUR  $0.42 GAIN IN PRICE)//THE DOMINANT FEATURE TODAY WAS THE MASSIVE BANKER SHORTCOVERING.THEY SEE THE TEA LEAVES FORMING AND THEY ARE GETTING OUT OF DODGE IN A BIG WAY…TOO MANY WISH TO STAND FOR DELIVERY…

THE TALLY//EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

i.e  400 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s)TOGETHER WITH A STRONG SIZED INCREASE OF 2896 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND HAPPENED WITH OUR $0.42 GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER/AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $24.85//THURSDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY. 

FOR THE NEW APRIL.  DELIVERY MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 79 NOTICE(S) FOR 395,000, OZ OF SILVER.

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018. AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.70//TODAY’S RECORD OF 244,705 WAS SET WITH A PRICE OF: 18.91 (FEB 25/2020)

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 
 
 
 

GOLD

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 2194 CONTRACTS TO 459,509,AND CLOSER TO OUR NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE INCREASE IN COMEX OI OCCURRED WITH OUR STRONG RISE IN PRICE  OF $13.00///COMEX GOLD TRADING//THURSDAY.AS IN SILVER WE MUST HAVE HAD STRONG BANKER/ALGO SHORT COVERING ACCOMPANYING OUR FAIR SIZED EXCHANGE FOR  PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. WE ALSO HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AS WE HAD A GOOD GAIN OF 5170 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.  WE ALSO HAD A VERY POWERFUL ADVANCE IN GOLD TONNAGE, EXTENDING GAINS FROM THURSDAY UP TO 79.082 TONNES. AS I STATED ON THURSDAY  “THIS IS UNUSUAL FOR DAY 2  (NOW DAY 3), AND THUS WE WILL PROBABLY SEE THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING EACH AND EVERY DAY THIS MONTH.”

 

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $13.00 WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD A VOLUME OF 0    4 -GC CONTRACTS//OPEN INTEREST  0//

WE HAD A GOOD SIZED GAIN OF 5120 OI CONTRACTS (15.925 TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES 

 

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 2926 CONTRACTS:

CONTRACT . FEB:0,  APRIL:  0 AND JUNE:  2926  ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO//TOTAL: 2926.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 459,509. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EXCHANGE DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 5120 CONTRACTS: 2194 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 2926 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 5120 CONTRACTS OR 15.925 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (3819) ACCOMPANYING THE SMALL SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI  (2144 OI): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES:  5120 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1 ) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AS OUR BANKERS ARE RUNNING FROM DODGE AND CONSIDERABLE ALGO SHORT COVERING ,2.) HUGE INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX AND ANOTHER STRONG ADVANCE FOR THE FRONT APRIL. MONTH ON DAY 3 OF THE DELIVERY CYCLE TO   79.082 TONNES)  3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION,  /// ;4) SMALL COMEX OI GAIN AND 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL AND ….ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR STRONG GAIN IN GOLD PRICE TRADING THURSDAY//$13.00!!. 

 

 
 

SPREADING OPERATIONS/NOW SWITCHING TO SILVER  (WE SWITCH OVER TO SILVER ON MAR  1)

FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS:

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED IN SILVER  AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF MAY.

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

 
 

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

.

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO SILVER AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX SILVER OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL. HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY FOR SILVER:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF APRIL. BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (MAY), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2021 INCLUDING TODAY

APRIL

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL : 6745, CONTRACTS OR 674500 oz OR 20.979 TONNES (3 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2248 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 3 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 20.979 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2020, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 20.979/3550 x 100% TONNES =0.591% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO DATE:
 
 
JANUARY: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)
 
FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..
 
 
MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN///IT SURPASSED JANUARY!!)

 

APRIL:      20.979 TONNES  (SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 3584 CONTRACTS FROM 154,402 DOWN TO 151,402 AND FURTHER FROM OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 3/4 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

THE STRONG SIZED LOSS IN OI SILVER COMEX WAS PRIMARILY DUE TO; 1) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING//ALGO SHORT COVERING//REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING , 2) A SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (SEE BELOW), 3) A SMALL INCREASE IN  STANDING FOR SILVER  AT THE COMEX FOR APRIL AT 14.205 MILLION OZ//., AND 4) SZERO LONG LIQUIDATION.

EFP ISSUANCE 400 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 MARCH:  0 ; MAY: 400 AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 400 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI GAIN OF 2896 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 400 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 3296 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 16.480 MILLION  OZ, OCCURRED WITH OUR $0.42 GAIN IN PRICE///

 

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL..THE EVIDENCE IS CLEAR: HUGE AMOUNTS OF PHYSICAL STANDING FOR BOTH  SILVER AND GOLD .

 

(report Harvey)

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)MONDAY MORNING/ SUNDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 18.06 PTS OR .52%   //Hang Sang CLOSED     /The Nikkei closed UP 235.25 POINTS OR 0.79%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP AT 6.5669 /Oil UP TO 60.63 dollars per barrel for WTI and 63.58 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN EXCEPT SPAIN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.5669. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.5761   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 
 
 
 
 

COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE  BY SMALL SIZED 2926 CONTRACTS TO 459,509 MOVING CLOSER TP FROM  THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020).  AND THIS  COMEX INCREASE OCCURRED WITH OUR STRONG GAIN OF $13.00 IN GOLD PRICING THURSDAY’S COMEX TRADING…WE ALSO HAD A FAIR EFP ISSUANCE (2926 CONTRACTS). .AS THEY WERE PAID OFF NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY.  

WE HAVE ALSO  LATELY WITNESSED  EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL….. AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS.

(SEE BELOW)

WE  HAD 0    4 -GC VOLUME//open interest REMAINS AT   0

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 2926 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  ;  AND APRIL:  0, JUNE:  2926 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2926  CONTRACTS.

YOU WILL FIND THAT WHEN WE HAVE A GOOD PREMIUM IN THE FUTURES/SPOT, THEN THE NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS DECLINE IN NUMBERS.  THE COST IS JUST TOO MUCH FOR THEM TO ISSUE. TODAY THAT PREMIUM WAS SMALL AND THUS A LITTLE MORE THAN USUAL OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WERE ISSUED.

HOWEVER, WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION, THE OPPOSITE IS TRUE. EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. LONDON IS OUT OF METAL.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A GOOD SIZED 5120  TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 2926 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A SMALL SIZED  COMEX OI  OF 2194 CONTRACTS.WE HAVE A HUGE AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR APRIL  (79.082 TONNES) WHICH FOLLOWS MARCH:  (30.205 TONNES) WHICH FOLLOWED FEB (113.424 TONNES)  WHICH FOLLOWED OUR STRONG LEVEL OF JAN 2021 GOLD . ((6.500 TONNES).  

THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT ROSE $13.00)., AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING ANY LONGS AS WE HAD A HUGE NET GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 5120 CONTRACTS.  THE TOTAL GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES REGISTERED  15.925 TONNES TONNES, ACCOMPANYING OUR STRONG GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR APRIL (79.082 TONNES)..I  STRONGLY BELIEVE THAT 0UR BANKER FRIENDS ARE GETTING QUITE NERVOUS.  THE SMALL GAIN IN COMEX OI IS DUE TO BANKER SHORT COVERING IN A BIG WAY.  THEY ARE LOOKING OVER THEIR SHOULDERS AND WITNESSING MASSIVE SILVER/GOLD SHORTAGES THAT CANNOT BE COVERED. THEY ARE TRYING TO FLEE IN HASTE “FROM DODGE”. 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES :: 5120 CONTRACTS OR  618700 OZ OR  15.925  TONNES

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT COMMODITY FUTURES OPEN INTEREST SHOULD APPROXIMATE 3% OF TOTAL PRODUCTION.  IN GOLD THE WORLD PRODUCES AROUND 3500 TONNES PER YEAR BUT ONLY 2200 TONNES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE WEST (THUS EXCLUDING RUSSIA, CHINA ETC..WHO KEEP 100% OF THEIR PRODUCT.
 
THUS IN GOLD WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:  459,509 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS X 100 OZ PER CONTRACT = 45.95 MILLION OZ/32,150 OZ PER TONNE =  1429 TONNES

 

THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST REPRESENTS 1429/2200 OR 64.96% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF GOLD.

 
 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX GOLD TODAY:97,853 contracts// volume  poor/   //

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  177,332 contracts//  volume:  poor// //most of our traders have left for London

 

APRIL 5 /2021

 
INITIAL STANDINGS FOR APRIL COMEX GOLD
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
 
 
 
80,327.500 OZ
 
 
 
 
 
MALCA
 
2500 KIARS
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz NIL
OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz
 
NIL
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
No of oz served (contracts) today
832  notice(s)
83,200 OZ
(2.587 TONNES
 
No of oz to be served (notices)
4532 contracts
(453200oz)
 
14.096 TONNES
 
 
 
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
20,893 notices
2,089,300 OZ
64.986 TONNES
 
 
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz
 

We had 0 deposit into the dealer

i)XX
 
 
 
 
total deposit:  NIL   oz
 
 
 

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had 0 deposits into the customer account
 
 
 
TOTA CUSTOMER DEPOSITS: nil oz
 
 
 
 
 
 
We had 1 withdrawal
 
 
i) out of Malca:  80,327.500 oz (2500 kilobars)
 
 
 
 
 
 
total withdrawals:  80,327.500 oz
 
 
 
 
 
 

We had 3  kilobar transactions (3 out of 5 transactions)

ADJUSTMENTS  4:  customer to dealer (we correct comex data to balance)

i)Out of Brinks:15,721.839oz  (489 kilobars)

ii) Out of HSBC  74,243.470 oz

iii) Out of JPMorgan regular account: 3665.214 oz (114 kilobars)

iv) Out of JPMorgan enhanced: 13,926.150 oz

 

 
 

The front month of APRIL registered a total of 5364 CONTRACTS for a loss of 2,979 contracts.  We had a huge 3193 notices filed on FRIDAY, so again we gained a huge 214 contracts or an additional 21400 oz will stand for gold in this very active delivery month of April./

 

 
 
 
 

MAY GAINED 29 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 1616

JUNE GAINED 5173 CONTRACTS UP TO 379,480

We had 832 notice(s) filed today for 83,200 oz

FOR THE APRIL 2021 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and  0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to  832  contract(s) of which 1  notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 469 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notices received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the APRIL /2021. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (20,893) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  (APRIL:  5364 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today 832 x 100 oz per contract) equals 2,542,500 OZ OR 79.082 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this  active month of MAR

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the APRIL contract month:

No of notices filed so far 20,893 x 100 oz  + (5364 OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (832} x 100 oz which equals 2,542,500 oz standing OR 79.082 TONNES in this  active delivery month of APRIL. This is a HUGE/ATMOSPHERIC amount standing for GOLD IN APRIL, A GENERALLY STRONG ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH. THE TONNAGE AT THE COMEX WOULD HAVE BEEN 20 TONNES HIGHER IF THEY DID NOT PAY OFF THE EFP’S NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY AT THE COMEX

 

WE GAINED A STRONG 24 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 21,400 OZ WILL STAND FOR GOLD ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND.

 WHAT IS CLEAR IS THIS: NOBODY LEFT THE GOLD ARENA AS THE LOSS IN OI WAS DUE THE FINAL SPREADER LIQUIDATION AND SHORT COVERING BY OUR BANKER FRIENDS..

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

464,420.335, oz NOW PLEDGED  march 5/2021/HSBC  13.626 TONNES

351,292.365 PLEDGED  MANFRA 10.92 TONNES

326,724.655 oz  JPM  10.162 TONNES

1,083,680.877 oz pledged June 12/2020 Brinks/33.706 TONNES

94,500.934 oz Pledged August 21/regular account 2.93 tonnes JPMORGAN

6,308.08 oz International Delaware:  .196 tonnes

192.906 oz Malca

total pledged gold:  2,327,120.147 oz                                     72.38 tonnes

 

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES…. WE HAVE 486.63 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS i.e. 79.082 tonnes

CALCULATION OF REGISTERED THAT CAN BE SETTLED UPON:

total registered or dealer  17,972,319.797 oz or 559.01 tonnes
 
 
total weight of pledged:  2,327,120.147 oz or 72.38 tonnes
 
 
thus:
 
registered gold that can be used to settle upon: 15,645,199.0 (486,63 tonnes) 
 
 
 
 
true registered gold  (total registered – pledged tonnes  15,645,199.0 (486.63 tonnes)
 
total eligible gold: 18,984,565.839 oz   (590.49 tonnes)
 
 
total registered, pledged  and eligible (customer) gold 36,956.885 oz or 1,149.87 tonnes (INCLUDES 4 GC GOLD)
 
 

total 4 GC gold:   126.34 tonnes

total gold net of 4 GC:  1023.53 tonnes

A  net total of 2.49 tonnes of gold leaves the COMEX today.

end

I have compiled  data with respect to registered (or dealer) gold taken on first day notice for each of the past 24 months

The data begins on first day notice for the May month taken on the last day of July 2018. and it continues to present day.

I then took, how many deliveries were recorded by the CME for each and every month.  I also included for reference the price of gold on first day notice.

The first graph is a logarithmic  graph and the second graph, linear.

You can see the huge explosion of registered gold at the comex along with deliveries.

 
 
THE DATA AND GRAPHS:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
END

 

 
 
APRIL 5/2021

And now for the wild silver comex results

 
 

And now for the wild silver comex results

INITIAL STANDING FOR SILVER/APRIL

APRIL. SILVER COMEX CONTRACT MONTH//INITIAL STANDING

Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
1,227,579.600 oz
 
 
CNT
Delaware
JPMorgan
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil
 
oz
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
nil oz
 
 
 
 
 
 
whatever enters the comex faults
leaves
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
No of oz served today (contracts)
79
 
CONTRACT(S)
(395,000 OZ)
 
No of oz to be served (notices)
412 contracts
 2,060,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  2429 contracts

 

12,145,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
 
We had 0 deposit into the dealer
 
i) xx
 
 
 

total dealer deposits: nil        oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had  0 deposit into the customer account (ELIGIBLE ACCOUNT)

 
 
 
 
 
 
 

JPMorgan now has 188.612 million oz of  total silver inventory or 51.21% of all official comex silver. (188.612 million/368.281 million

total customer deposits today: nil   oz

we had 3 withdrawals:

 
 
i) out of CNT:  665,640.840 oz
ii) Out of Delaware: 1050.950 oz
iii) Out of jpm  567,887.810 oz
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

total withdrawals 1,227,579.810   oz

We had 2 adjustments: dealer to customer

HSBC  1,242,746.383 oz

manfra: 2,342,134.120 oz

 
 

Total dealer(registered) silver: 123.229-million oz

total registered and eligible silver:  368.281 million oz

a net 1.277 million oz leaves the comex silver vaults.

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The month of April saw 491 contracts standing for delivery for a loss of 654 contracts.  We had 657 contracts served upon yesterday, so we GAINED  3 contracts or 15,000 oz will stand for delivery over here instead of morphing into London based forwards.
 
 
 

May SURPRISINGLY GAINED 1807 contracts to stand at  118,709 contracts. May is the next active month and it seems the cavalry are showing up for physical silver as well. Thus we have April, a non active month having an initial 14.2 million oz stand and May with open interest refusing to buckle. 

 

To give you an idea of the strength of the May contract, let us compare the open interest remaining today vs last year. At this same time, we had 77,799 oi contracts still outstanding on the May 2020.  This year:  118,709  still outstanding!!.

 

IT LOOKS LIKE WE HAVE OUR WHALE STANDING FOR SILVER METAL.  ERIC SPROTT’S FUND HAS NOTIFIED THE SEC THAT THEY ARE DOING A SHELF OFFERING OF $2 BILLION FOR SPROTT SILVER PHYSICAL FUNDS  (PSLV). IS ERIC TAKING ON THE CROOKS BY STANDING FOR METAL IN APRIL AND MAY?

 

The total number of notices filed today for APRIL 2021. contract month represented by 79 contract(s) FOR  395,000 oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in APRIL. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at  2429 x 5,000 oz = 12,145,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of APRIL 491) and the number of notices served upon today 79 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the April standings for silver for the APRIL/2021 contract month: 2350 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of APRIL (491)  – number of notices served upon today (79) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the Jan contract month .equals 14,205,000 oz. ..VERY STRONG FOR A NON ACTIVE APRIL MONTH. 

WE GAINED 3 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 15,000 OZ WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND.

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME 40,590 CONTRACTS // volume extremely poor// volumes falling off a cliff// very 

 

FOR YESTERDAY  70,83  ,CONFIRMED VOLUME/poor

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV  FALLS TO -0.11% (APRIL; 5/2021)

2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV FALLS TO –2.02% to NAV:   (APRIL 5/2021 )

Note: /Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/0.11%(APRIL5/2021)

(courtesy Sprott/GATA

3. SPROTT CEF .A   FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 18.40 TRADING 17.69//NEGATIVE 3.87

 

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/(this vehicle is a fraud as there is no gold behind them!)

APRIL 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.65 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.67 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1032.83 TONNES.

APRIL 1/WITH GOLD UP $13.00 TODAY:  NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1037.50 TONNES

MARCH 31/WITH GOLD UP $28.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1037.50 TONNES

MARCH 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $28.20 TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD… A DEPOSIT OF .88 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1037.50TONNES

MARCH 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $20.00 TODAY//A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.41 TONNES FROM THE GLD..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1036.62 TONNES

MARCH 26/WITH GOLD UP $7.00 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1043.03 TONNES

MARCH//25: WITH GOLD DOWN $7.75 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.33 TONNES//GOLD REST AT 1043.03 TONNES

MARCH 24//WITH GOLD UP $7.75 TODAY://A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.42 TONNES OF GOLD: THIS GOLD IS BEING RETURNED TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND ON A PHONY LEASE SCAM//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1045.36 TONNES.

MARCH 23/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.65 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1051.78 TONNES

MARCH 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.90 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.5 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1051.78 TONNES

MARCH 19/WITH GOLD UP $8.60 , NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1048.28 TONNES

MARCH 18/WITH GOLD UP $5.40 TODAY, A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.04 TONNES FROM THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1048.28 TONNES

MARCH 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.65 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.32 TONNES

MARCH 16/WITH GOLD UP $2.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.75 MILLION OZ FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.32 TONNES

MARCH 15/WITH GOLD UP $8.85 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.25 TONNES OF GOLD FORM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.07 TONNES

MARCH 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.25 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A REMOVAL OF 4.96 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1055.27 TONNES

MARCH 11/WITH GOLD UP $1.25 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.75 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1060.23 TONNES

MARCH 10/WITH GOLD UP $4.70 TODAY: ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.46 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1061.98 TONNES

MARCH 9/WITH GOLD UP $37.40 TODAY: ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 5.82 TONNES FORM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1063.44 TONNES

MARCH 8/WITH GOLD  DOWN $21.00  TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 9.04 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1069.26 TONNES

MARCH 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $15.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.08 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1078.30 TONNES

MARCH 4/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.60 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1082.38 TONNES

MARCH 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $17.70 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.62 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1087.12 TONNES

MARCH 2/WITH GOLD UP $9.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WHOPPING WITHDRAWAL OF 9.04 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1084.50 TONNES

MARCH 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.65 DOLLARS; A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.7 TONNES FROM THE GLD//.INVENTORY RESTS AT 1093.54 TONNES.

FEB 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $46.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.08 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1100.24 TONNES//

FEB 25/ WITH GOLD DOWN $20.65 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.08 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY REST AT 1106.36 TONNES

FEB 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.30 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.96 TONNES FROM THE GLD// RESTS AT 1110.44 TONNES

FEB 23/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.45 TODAY: A MONSTROUS CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 12.54 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1115.40 TONNES

FEB 22/WITH GOLD UP $30.00 TODAY: STRANGE!! A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.25 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1127.64 TONNES

FEB 19/WITH GOLD UP $2.00 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1132.89 TONNES

FEB 18//WITH GOLD UP $2.60 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.79 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1132.89 TONNES

FEB 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $27.35 TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.54 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1136.68 TONNES

FEB 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $23.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORYRESTS AT 1142.20 TONNES

FEB 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.38 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1142.20 TONNES

FEB 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $15.35 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/I: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1146.60 TONNES

FEB 10/WITH GOLD UP $5.30 TODAY: ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.09 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1148.34 TONNES

FEB 9/WITH GOLD UP $4.00 TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.08 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1152.43 TONNES.

FEB 8/WITH GOLD UP $20.80 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.33 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1156.51 TONNES

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Inventory rests tonight at:

 

APRIL 5 / GLD INVENTORY 1032.83 tonnes

LAST;  1032 TRADING DAYS:   +99.02 TONNES HAVE BEEN ADDED THE GLD

LAST 932 TRADING DAYS// +  283.50TONNES  HAVE NOW  BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY

end

Now the SLV Inventory/(this vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them!)

APRIL 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO  CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 575.124 MILLION OZ

APRIL 1.WITH SILVER UP 48 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.898 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 575.124 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 31/WITH SILVER UP 37 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 579.022 MILLION OZ

MARCH 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 62 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A DEPOSIT OF 417,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY REST AT 579.022 MILLION OZ..

MARCH 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 578.605 MILLION OZ.

MARCH 26/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY: TWO HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.042 MILLION OZ AT 3 PM AND ANOTHER AT 5.20 PM:  1.949 MILLION OZ /INVENTORY RESTS AT 578.605 MILLION OZ

MARCH 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.253 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 582.596 MILLION OZ

MARCH 24//WITH SILVER UP 1 CENT TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 585.846 MILLION OZ./

MARCH 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 55 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 585.846 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 50 CENTS TODAY,TWO HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.486 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLVAT 3 PM AND ANOTHER 2.599 MILLION OZ WITHRAWWAL AT 5:20 ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 585.846 MILLION OZ/ (TOTAL SILVER LEAVING 4.085 MILLION OZ)

MARCH 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY REST AT 589.931 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 18/WITH SILVER UP 28 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; AT 3 PM: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.507 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 589.931 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 17/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 592.438 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 592.438 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 15/WITH SILVER UP 35 CENTS TODAY: NO  CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 592.438 MILLION OZ///

MARCH 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 592.438 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 11/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 592.438 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY; ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 928,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 592.438 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 9/WITH SILVER UP 91 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 593.366  MILLION OZ///

MARCH 8/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.25 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 593.366 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 31 CENTS TODAY: TWO HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.501 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV AT 3 PM AND ANOTHER 3.90 MILION OZ AT 5.20..: TOTAL LOSSS 10.4 MILLLLION OZ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 596.616 MILLION OZ

MARCH 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 76 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.486 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 609.017 MILLION OZ

MARCH 3/WITH SILVER DOWN 58 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.774 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 605.531 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 2//WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 609.305 MILLION OZ

MARCH 1.WITH SILVER UP 26 CENTS TODAY:A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.593 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 609.305 MILLION OZ.

FEB 26/WITH SILVER DOWN  $1.17 TODAY: TWO HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.857 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV AT 3 PM//AND ANOTHER 1.858 MILLION OZ AT 5.20 EST//INVENTORY RESTS AT 615.898 MILLION OZ//

FEB 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 619.613 MILLION OZ//

FEB 24/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORIES AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 619.613 MILLION OZ

FEB 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS TODAY: TWO ENTRIES I) HUGE CHANGE ISN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 127,000 OZ INTO THE SLV AND THEN A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 7.801 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 619.613 MILLION OZ

FEB 22/WITH SILVER UP 74 CENTS TODAY: 2 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.322 MILLION OZ AT 3 PM AND 6.873 MILLION OF AT 5 20 PM EST/INVENTORY RESTS AT 611.685 MILLION OZ/

FEB 19//WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 621.007 MILLION OZ//

FEB 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 22 CENTS TODAY : TWO HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.858 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV AN ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL 5.758 MILLION OZ// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 621.007 MILLION OZ//

FEB 17/WITH SILVER UP  1 CENT TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A DEPOSIT OF 83,000 OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 628.623 MILLION OZ//

FEB 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.044 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 628.530 MILLION OZ//

FEB 12/WITH SILVER UP 31 CENTS//A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.312 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 630.574 MILLION OZ.

FEB 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.858 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 634.986 MILLION OZ//

FEB 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 44 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 636.844 MILLION OZ//

FEB 9/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.19 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 17.882 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 636.844 MILLION OZ//

FEB 8/WITH SILVER UP $0.53 TODAY: A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 4.451 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 654.726 MILLION OZ//

XXXXXXXXXXXXXX

SLV INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT

APRIL 5/2021
575.124 MILLION OZ

 
 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i)LAWRIE WILLIAMS:

LAWRIE WILLIAMS: Some Easter cheer for gold, silver and pgms.

After much of the week with precious metals in the price doldrums, the final couple of days before the Easter weekend saw a halfway decent pick-up in precious metals prices. Whether they can hold on to, or perhaps extend, these remains to be seen, but they do suggest that there is, at least, some degree of resilience in the precious metals markets, although the pre-Easter surges have been on relatively thin pre-holiday trading. Whether they can end the year as per my earlier forecasts for the year end made at the end of last year (gold at $2,225, silver at $32.25, platinum $1,285, palladium $2,175) remains in doubt, although in our opinion portents for rising prices, for gold and silver in particular (although I remain dubious about the palladium price) do remain positive with money being poured into the markets by the U.S. and many European governments and the U.S. Fed (and presumably other central banks) looking to be maintaining ultra-low to negative interest rate environments for the foreseeable future.

There are signs too that demand is beginning to pick up in the traditional high-consumption Asian markets. Gold withdrawals out of the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) in China are running comfortably above last year’s depressed figures and now a report out of Reuters in Mumbai suggest an absolutely massive increase of 471% in India’s gold imports in March (compared with March 2020) to 160 tonnes. In Q1 Reuters reports that India imported 321 tonnes of gold. Indian demand tends to be quite price sensitive, so the fall in the gold price during the first quarter of the current year will have likely led to a rise in demand as will the government’s slight relaxation of import tax levels on gold and silver to boost retail demand and reduce the incentive for gold smugglers. Indian gold demand could well end the year in excess of 1,000 tonnes again – particularly if one adds in gold smuggled in illegally.

As we pointed out in our earlier article on the latest Swiss gold imports and export figures (See: Swiss gold imports and exports – approaching the normal again) Chinese imports of gold seem to be remaining subdued as far as external gold sources are concerned. But as the world’s largest producer of gold from its mining sector, and as a byproduct from imported base and precious metals concentrates, it is quite capable of meeting any rising internal demand from its own output assuming no purchases from the central bank. The lower gold import levels seem to have been confirmed too by the latest data and graphic published on Nick Laird’s http://www.goldchartsrus.com website which puts China’s February gold imports at only 6.27 tonnes.

To an extent at least, rising demand in much of Asia will help counteract ETF outflows and a decline in central bank gold purchasing. And there’s also the potential for a downturn in global new mined gold output through reserve and grade depletion and COVID- related production interruptions.

On another positive note, Ed Steer in his latest Gold and Silver Digest, published today, describes the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report from the U.S.’s Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Group as ‘outrageously bullish’ for gold and silver with big falls in the COMEX short positions in both major precious metals. He notes that in gold, the commercial net short position fell by 8,077 contracts, or 807,700 troy ounces while in silver, the commercial net short position declined by 4,441 COMEX contracts, or 22.2 million troy ounces.

In his latest Gold Monitor weekly newsletter Canada’s Martin Murenbeeld notes though that as far as Q1 2021 is concerned the gold price averaged $1,794. Although this was up 13% over that of 2020-Q1, it was, however, down just over 4% from that of 2020-Q4. .Perhaps worse, the 2021-Q1 average was well below the consultancy’s Scenario A most bearish gold price forecast issued in January, to say nothing of Scenarios B and C – the median and bullish price forecasts. “Plainly, we missed it”, he comments, “We missed the substantial rise in the US 10-year Treasury and TIPS yields and we missed the impact of bitcoin mania on gold. (Our models continue to suggest that bitcoin is having a significant, negative price impact on gold!) And of course, on the back of the rise in US yields, the dollar rose during the quarter as well. What could go wrong for gold did go wrong for gold in 2021-Q1!”

One shouldn’t be too despondent on this analysis by one of the best gold price forecasters out there, as it is early days this year yet. However we suspect a revised forecast may soon appear, implementing a slight downward provision in the forecasts and perhaps a change in weighting for each of the three estimated scenarios. But back to Murenbeeld’s latest analysis. “Gold has had a significant, unexpected setback. But ultra-easy monetary and aggressively stimulative fiscal policies will not end quickly, regardless of the Treasury market selloff” he comments.

Latest data suggests that the U.S. may be recovering faster from the coronavirus pandemic situation than many had forecast. The latest employment figures for March, which showed a bigger than expected gain of 916,000 jobs, and upwards revisions for January and February, were certainly positive in this respect, but overall daily reported coronavirus infections are still running too high at around 70,000, and may be on the rise with some disturbing numbers in some states which could indicate the early impact of a second wave of high infection rates. The onset of seemingly more transmissible and deadly virus strains has to be disturbing, particularly in the light of the latest statistics out of Europe, where new virus cases seem to be rising out of control.

Somewhat worrying to observers is that some U.S. states seem to be easing some of their anti-pandemic strictures, possibly prematurely, in favour of trying to resurrect their economies. U.S. vaccination numbers seem to be advancing well, however, after slow progress earlier on, and acceptance is also higher than forecast, although is still an issue, particularly in some Republican leaning states.

The U.S. economy and markets are currently very much the primary global precious metals and equities price drivers. While equities, and bitcoin, do appear to this writer as hugely overbought, these markets, boosted by social media memes, seem to continue moving from strength to strength with only minimal signs of slowing down. When the crash does come, which looks to be inevitable to this observer sooner or later, given prices for many equities seem to bear no relation to their real earnings potential and bitcoin seems to be hugely overhyped, it could be dramatic. Interestingly gold stocks seem to be perhaps the one sector where earnings potential looks to be hugely positive – yet this sector is largely ignored by the market. Overall the equities market and bitcoin look to be in a kind of Ponzi scheme frenzy. Things won’t end well.

03 Apr 2021

-END-

 

EGON VON GREYERZ// 

Disorder Will Come…

 
MONDAY, APR 05, 2021 – 06:00 AM

Authored by Egon von Greyerz via GoldSwitzerland.com,

When bubbles burst, we will discover how very few superior men there actually are – as defined by Confucius:

“The superior man, when resting in safety, does not forget that danger may come. When in a state of security he does not forget the possibility of ruin. When all is orderly, he does not forget that disorder may come. Thus his person is not endangered, and his States and all their clans are preserved.”

– Confucius

Superior man can exist at many different levels in society, not necessarily linked to money or investments. There will be many people without money who are prepared at an intellectual or psychological level. These people are probably the happiest since sadly many wealthy people worry about their money all the time rather than enjoy it.

In this piece I am talking primarily about preparedness in relation to one’s wealth.

FOCUS ON WEALTH PRESERVATION

The investors we meet in our business are people who are risk averse and therefore very much focus on wealth preservation. These investors buy physical gold because they are concerned about the excessive risks in markets. They want to protect and insure their wealth against unprecedented financial and currency risk. Like ourselves, these investors consider physical precious metals, stored outside a fragile banking system, as the ultimate form of wealth preservation.

But investment gold represents less than 0.5% of world financial assets. This means that a minuscule percentage of investors insure their wealth in gold. This is clearly surprising bearing in mind that over 5,000 years gold is the only money that has survived.

INFLATION IS COMING

There are of course other real assets like land and property that have held their values very well over time. As we expect major inflation in food prices, agricultural land is likely to do well in coming years. As I have pointed out in recent articles, we are already seeing high inflation in agricultural and other commodities. See chart below.

BOND YIELDS DO NOT REFLECT THE MASSIVE RISK

But commercial and residential property is a different matter. The incessant creation of credit since 1971 has driven property prices ever higher. In addition, central banks have given borrowers the best leg up ever by charging virtually nothing for money.

In Switzerland for example you can get a 15 year fixed mortgage at a fixed rate of 1%. This is like handing out money for free. But low interest rates in no way represent the generosity of governments or central banks. Instead it is the consequence of their profligate spending.

With incessant deficit spending, governments must finance the new debt at virtually no cost to avoid default. That is why we are seeing $18 trillion of negative yielding government bonds with no Western borrower paying above 2% for any maturity.

How absurd rates are is reflected by for example Greek versus US rates for 30 year bonds. Greece just launched a 30 year massively oversubscribed bond issue at 1.95%. For comparison, US 30 year bonds yield 2.36%. Both these borrowers are virtually bankrupt but it is absurd that a very financially weak Greece can borrow at a lower rate than the US.

So the government bond market is biggest bubble of them all. That won’t stop it from expanding further.

Just take the US. When Trump was elected in November 2016, US debt was $20 trillion. Based on history I forecast that it would reach $28t in January 2021 and $40t in 2025. At the time most market observers found this forecast preposterous but sadly they hadn’t studied history which told us what would happen.

US GOVERNMENT DEBT $50 TRILLION IN 2025

Based on the current situation of the US economy and the forecasted deficits and credit expansion, $40 trillion in 2025 is too low and we are now looking at a US debt of $50t.

Remember that when Reagan took over in 1981, US debt was under $1t. So 44 years later the debt is forecast at $50t in 2025. That is an astounding compound annual growth rate of 28% of US debt between 1981 and 2025. And this figure doesn’t include potential defaults in credit or derivative markets which could increase the $50t exponentially. Total US debt of $84 trillion can never be repaid and nor can it be serviced at non-manipulated market rates.

When bubbles burst, the domino effect is incalculable. In addition to debt default of $10s of trillions, derivative defaults, which are very likely, could add $100 of trillions and more.

I am sure that the Fed and other central banks are already cranking up the printing presses or expanding the memory of their computers to cope with all the additional zeros.

HYPERINFLATION IS A CURRENCY EVENT

There are a number of respected market observers who believe that we will not see high inflation or hyperinflation. In their analysis they conveniently avoid the currency effect.

As I point out regularly, every single event of hyperinflation in history has arisen as a result of the currency collapsing. It is not the increase in demand for goods and services, nor central bank interest rate policy that causes hyperinflation.

No, it is the total mismanagement of the economy and the consequent debasement of the currency that creates hyperinflation.

Just look at the table below. All the major currencies have lost 80-86% in real purchasing power (gold) since 2000 and 96-99% since 1971 when Nixon closed the gold window.
And if we look at a hyperinflationary economy like Argentina, the Argentinian Pesos has lost 99.99% since 2000.

FEW ARE PREPARED FOR DISORDER, RUIN OR HYPERINFLATION

Whether it is ordinary people or the so called experts, everybody believes ruin won’t happen to them. Therefore they are not in a Confucius state of preparedness for the coming economic and currency collapse.

Let me describe a very recent anecdote about hyperinflation in Europe. Last year, in a small town in Ticino, (Italian part of Switzerland) I dined with my wife and friends in a small restaurant. The owner came up to me and said he knew me. It appeared that he followed my articles and interviews. He told us he fled from Yugoslavia in the 1990s. He and his family had lost an important part of their money during the 1992-94 hyperinflation.

The annual level of inflation in Yugoslavia in January 1994 reached 116 billion percent!

Below is a 500 billion Yugoslav Dinar note.

Fortunately the restaurant owner had some savings in gold and this allowed him to start afresh in Switzerland. He told our friends never to keep any money in the bank but to only hold physical gold.

So this former Yugoslav man was prepared for the “possibility of ruin”, as Confucius warned, and told us that he would never trust the banking system again.

EPIC OVERVALUATION OF STOCKS

My friends who were at the restaurant still don’t hold any gold. They like 99.5% of investors believe that trees grow to heaven together with stocks and property.

Based on the stock market in the last 40 years, most investors could of course not avoid making money. Therefore very few are in a Confucius state of preparedness and will be totally taken by surprise when the next major crash starts.

Initially they will expect central banks to save them again. But when the V recovery doesn’t happen and the market just continues down, most investors will ride the market all the way to the bottom.

I would be surprised if markets in the next few years fall by less than 90% like in 1929-32.

The Buffett indicator of market cap to GDP is now giving us a major warning. As the graph below shows stocks are now at an all time high valuation in relation to GDP.

If we look at the Shiller Cape index, it is now at a historical high (excluding the Dot Com bubble) and 2X the historical average. Yes, overbought positions can extend but the subsequent crash will be long and vicious.

SELL STOCKS AND BUY GOLD – A SEMINAL DECISION

Finally another picture that reminds us of Confucius’ warning that “danger, disorder and ruin may come”.

The Dow peaked against gold in 1999. The ratio came down from 44 to 6 or by 87% in 2011. We have now seen a 10 year correction with the compliment of the Fed and massive money printing combined with credit expansion.

The rise in the Dow could end tomorrow or we could see a continued meltup for a limited period. Regardless, the time for Confucian preparedness is now and here.

We know that stocks are massively overbought on every measure. To catch the last few points of the rise is an extremely dangerous exercise that could lead to ruin.

Now is the time to take profits in stocks and protect your assets from total annihilation.

As I showed in last week’s article, gold is today as cheap in relation to money supply as it was in 1970 at $35 and as cheap as in 2000 when gold was $290. The short term correction in gold is now finishing and the next move up will be the strongest for a few years.

The rise in gold and fall in stocks will mean that the Dow will fall another 99% (see chart above) from here to reach the long term trend line (not shown).

So getting out of stocks and holding physical gold will not only be a seminal decision but it will also heed 2,500 years of wisdom that Confucius taught.

end
 
EGON VON GREYERZ AND KINGWORLDNEWS
 

April 5 (King World News) – Egon von Greyerz at Matterhorn Asset Management (based in Switzerland):Bill Hwang, the founder of the hedge fund Archegos that just lost $30 billion, probably didn’t realise when he named his company that it was predestined for big things.

Archegos is a Greek word which means leader or one who leads so that others may follow.

ARCHEGOS THE FIRST OF MANY TO COME
This, until a few days ago, unknown hedge fund is a trailblazer for what will happen to the $1.5+ quadrillion derivatives market. I have warned about the derivatives bubble for years. Archegos has just lit the fuse and soon this whole market will explode.I know that technically Archegos was a Family Office for favourable regulatory reasons. But for all intents and purposes I consider it a hedge fund.

Warren Buffett called derivatives financial weapons of mass destruction and he was absolutely right.But greedy bankers have now built derivatives to a self-destructive nuclear weapon. Archegos shows the world that an unknown smaller hedge fund can get credit lines of $30 billion or more that quickly leads to contagion and uncontrollable losses…

Listen to the greatest Egon von Greyerz audio interview ever
by
CLICKING HERE OR ON THE IMAGE BELOW.

 

And when the hedge fund’s bets go wrong, not only do the investors lose all their money, but the banks that have recklessly financed Archegos’ massively leveraged speculation will also lose around $10 billion of their shareholders’ funds.

It obviously will not affect the bankers’ bonuses, which will only be reduced when the bankhas gone bust. Remember the Lehman crisis in 2008. Without a massive rescue package by central banks, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, etc, would have gone under. And still the bonuses that year in these banks were the same as the previous year, which is absolutely scandalous and the very worst side of capitalism. But as Gordon Gekko said in the film Wall Street – Greed is Good! Well, when it all finishes, it might not be as good as they think.

DERIVATIVES – A MONEY SPINNER THAT WILL SPIN OUT OF CONTROL
Derivatives have been a money spinner for the major investment banks for decades. Today virtually all trading is in the form of derivatives. Very few portfolios are in the underlying instruments. Instead, anything from stock portfolios, ETFs, gold funds, etc, use derivatives or synthetic instruments. In addition, the interest and forex markets are all derivatives. Archegos’ portfolio for example was in Total Return Swaps.

As we just saw, when derivatives implode and the underlying securities are dumped by the prime broker at any price, the losses are instantaneous and irreparable.Still, contagion was avoided this time with the banks taking all the losses. But that will not be the case next time when not just $30 billion of derivatives implode but multiples of that sum.

WHEN COUNTERPARTIES FAIL………
Defenders of derivatives, which obviously includes all the investment banks and the BIS (Bank of International Settlement) in Basel, will argue that the net derivatives position is just a fraction of the gross which is estimated to be at least $1.5 quadrillion.Yes, of course the net position theoretically is much smaller after netting. But when counterparties fail, gross remains gross. And this is what we are likely to see within the next few years.

Archegos is a very good example of what the world will experience on a much bigger scale – $1.5 quadrillion will not disappear quietly. The banks managed to stop contagion this time but they won’t once it starts in earnest.When the biggest financial bubble in history unravels, the massively over-leveraged financial system will be paralysed as stock, bond and property values just evaporate in a cloud of smoke.

WHEN ASSET VALUES DIE
The world will then realise that all the printed money and all credit that backed these assets had ZERO value, which some of us have been clear about for years.

Despite the pipe dreams of the Keynesians and the MMT rubbish theories, money created out of thin air must always have ZERO value.And when the world discovers that the debt has ZERO value, they will also wake up from their sweet dreams and realise that the artificial wealth they have built up was all based on a lie.

Starting with the closing of the gold window in 1971, the world has built up an edifice of grossly overvalued assets that will soon find their intrinsic value of nearer ZERO. Some will argue that many of these assets will still have a value whether it is a sound business or a high quality commercial building with good tenants.That argument is valid as long as the business has no debt and can service its debts from revenue.Same with leveraged commercial property. Bricks and mortar have little value if it is not income producing. When tenants can’t pay the rent, the bank will call in the loans and foreclose on the building.

In a world with $300 trillion of debt, most assets are heavily leveraged. Debtors with no profits or income will quickly become insolvent and the bank will become holders of major assets that collapse in value. The banks cannot afford to hold on to these assets and will sell them in ongoing fire sales.

Very few people will have liquid and marketable assets at that point, and the debt financing will become non-existent.

HOLDERS OF REAL MONEY OR GOLD & SILVER WILL FIND BARGAINS
As in every period of crisis in history holders of liquid real assets like gold and silver will be able to pick assets for 5 cents on the dollar. This sounds impossible today but people familiar with for example the Weimar Republic will know that this actually happened then and also in other times in periods of major crises.

That will be the time when a property that is today worth say $1.1 million, or 20 kilos of gold, can be acquired for 1 kilo which is a 95% discount measured in gold. This obviously sounds totally unrealistic today but history proves that it happens time and time again.

FIRST TIME IN HISTORY A DEBT COLLAPSE IS GLOBAL
This time the debt bubble is bigger than any time in history. But not only that, this is the first time ever that a debt collapse is global.Every corner of the world is in the same situation – North America, South America, Europe, Africa, China, Japan and even Russia. Some countries like China might be able to deal with their debt internally but every single country in the world will suffer as the financial system implodes and world trade collapses.

THE DARK AGES
The biggest economic collapse in history up to now is probably the fall of the Roman Empire which happened gradually, but the final fall of Rome was in 476 AD when the Germanic leader Odoacer disposed of Romulus Augustulus. From then on no Roman emperor would ever rule from Rome.

The late 5th century is considered the start of the Dark Ages that lasted 900 years until the Renaissance or late 14th century. Other historians define it as a 500 year period. The Dark Ages was a period of cultural and economic decline. But there was clearly not a 900 year solid decline. Many areas prospered much earlier.

So whether we will get an extended period of decline after the current economic and financial bubbles, only future historians will know. What is certain though is that a debt and asset implosion of the magnitude that the world is now facing will have devastating effects for our children and grandchildren. Whether it will last 50 years or 500 years, only history will tell us.

CREDIT SUISSE AND THE WILD BUNCH OF PRIME BROKERS
Hedge fund leverage can only happen with the total cooperation and backing of major banks. Archegos had Prime Brokerage relationships with Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Nomura and Credit Suisse.These foolhardy banks extend trading lines of billions of dollars so that hedge funds can leverage themselves to a level which will not just jeopardise the hedge funds but also the banks themselves and eventually the financial system.

Swiss banks used to be a bastion of prudence and conservatism. Butas I have written about before they are now at the very top of risk taking banks.Switzerland has a major problem due to the size of its banking system which is 5X Swiss GDP. Thus, in case of a major contagion the Swiss financial system is too big to save.

SWISS NATIONAL BANK – THE WORLD’S BIGGEST HEDGE FUND
The additional problem is of course the Swiss National Bank (SNB), the largest hedge fund in the world with assets of CHF 1 trillion (USD 1.1trillion), which is 145% ofSwiss GDP. For comparison, the Fed’s balance sheet is 27% of US GDP. The majority of the balance sheet is in foreign exchange speculation and held in dollars and euros. The SNB also has major positions in US tech stocks – $8.5 billion in Apple,$6.b in Microsoft, $5.2 in Amazon, plus a lot more.So not only is the Swiss banking system too big for the country but the Swiss national bank is extremely vulnerable to a decline in the dollar and euro plus US tech stocks.

None of this could have happened in the late 1960s and 1970s when I was in Swiss banking. But when both the Swiss National Bank and the commercial banks leverage their positions to the hilt in derivatives and currency speculation, the whole Swiss financial system is at risk.Nobody should hold major assets in a national banking system which is as exposed as the Swiss system is today.

CREDIT SUISSE – IS IT INCOMPETENCE OR JUST BAD LUCK
So let’s look how Credit Suisse (CS), which is Switzerland’s second biggest bank, has fared lately. CS has gone from bad to worse, both in risk management and losses. In Q4 2015, they lost CHF 6 billion in write offs and trading losses. In late 2016 CS agrees to pay $5.3b to resolve a probe by the US Department of Justice for mis-selling mortgages. In 2020 CS faced another $680m in relation to US mortgage securities. In 2021 CS has so far taken a $450m write down on investment in the hedge fund York Capital. A massive $3 billion is expected to be lost on the collapsed Greensill Capital. That sum is equal to Credit Suisse’s net income in 2020.

And the next disaster for Credit Suisse is Archegos. The losses are likely to exceed $3 billion.

The amount of losses that CS has had is clearly not just bad luck. It is based on incompetence combined with a level of greed which rewards success for individuals whilst at the same time jeopardising the bank and the system.

CS is just one of the banks losing unacceptable amounts of money. Nomura, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and several more gamblers.So Credit Suisse is clearly not the only bank taking these shameless bets. The whole banking world is the same. And due to the total interdependence of the financial system, even sound banks will not survive.

BANKS FACE SHOCKWAVES OF LOSSES
All these casinos that are called banks are, every day, making bets that put the banks at risk. In an orderly and controlled market they make enormous amounts of money for themselves. But when the tide turns and they no longer can manipulate the market to their advantage, there will be shockwaves of losses.

When stock and bond markets fall at the same time, the collateral of the banks will not even reach fire sale levels. And that will be the way that the derivatives market disappears for good or at least for many, many years.

Anyone who believes that their assets held within a bank will be safe should think again. I am not just talking about money, but also all the securities held by the bank as custodian. Under pressure the bank will use these assets as collateral for their trading loans. This has happened many times before like in 2007-8.

When you put your assets in the financial system, it is like putting them in a timebomb which has already been lit. It is only a matter of time before it all explodes. And you will have a hard time finding anything of value among the rubble.

RISK NOW GREATER THAN ANY TIME IN HISTORY
As I have spelt out many times, I am not a pessimist, nor a prophet of doom and gloom. I just analyse risk and then look at the potential consequences if/when things go wrong.

I consider risk greater now than in any time in history. And please don’t believe that more worthless debt in the form of MMT, QE, etc, will solve the problem. It will just make the explosion bigger.

In every crisis in history, physical gold and silver have been the best form of insurance. Don’t believe it will be different this time…This will link you directly to more fantastic articles from Egon von Greyerz CLICK HERE.

To listen to one of Egon von Greyerz’s best interviewsCLICK HERE OR ON THE IMAGE BELOW.

end

Peter Schiff..

Peter Schiff: Biden Infrastructure Plan Will Weaken The Economy And Destroy Opportunity

 
FRIDAY, APR 02, 2021 – 12:40 PM

Via SchiffGold.com,

Joe Biden unveiled details of his $2 trillion-plus infrastructure plan complete with tax hikes. The claim is that this is going to strengthen the economy and create opportunity. Peter broke down the spending plan in his podcast and said it will do the exact opposite. It’s going to weaken the economy and destroy opportunity.

The tax hikes primarily target corporations, along with people who earn over $400,000 per year, but Biden said they weren’t meant to punish people. They are intended to create opportunities for others.

In other words, he thinks the only way to create opportunities is to take money away from the entrepreneurs who earned it and have the government spending it ‘creating opportunity for other people, which basically is taking a stake to the very heart of capitalism.”

But people ignore the fact that the money in the private sector that the government wants to take away also provides opportunities for other people. When you tax corporations and “the rich,” you’re not targeting consumption. This is money that would have been invested. It would have funded new plants and equipment, research and development, expanding staff, and other investments. Biden wants to take this money out of the private sector and have the government spend it.

So the opportunities that government is going to create and provide to the public are going to be at the expense of the opportunities that the private sector would have created and provided if it had the resources to do it.”

That raises a question: what is a better way to create opportunities and economic growth? Free markets or government bureaucrats and central planners? Peter said we know the answer.

Every single country that has tried to centrally plan its way to prosperity has been a complete and utter failure. The way to have opportunity and economic growth is to have more resources in the hands of the private sector and to limit as best as you can the resources that are consumed by government.”

Ultimately, opportunities get smaller as government gets bigger.

That is the Biden plan.

And this plan isn’t going to be good for the economy. It is going to be a burden on the economy.

Even if the money is well-spent – and it almost certainly won’t, given the government’s track record – the payoff is in the future. The economy today will have to bear the cost.

That doesn’t help the economy. It hurts the economy. Because now we have to divert resources out of current consumption to free them up to enable the building of all the infrastructure that isn’t going to pay off until years into the future. So yes, infrastructure can be important, and it could make you more productive in the long run. But in the short run, you’ve got to be able to pay for it. You have to be able to afford it. So, you don’t make the economy stronger in the short run by needing to spend money on infrastructure.”

And it will almost certainly cost more than it should. Biden said all of the materials will be made in America even if they can be obtained more cheaply overseas. On top of that, you will almost certainly have the cronyism inherent in any government project. Peter said the whole thing will be a “gigantic cesspool.”

Everything is going to cost way more than it should. So, I’m sure none of this spending is actually going to be economically viable, even if we could afford it, which we can’t. So, it’s going to be a drain on the economy in the short run, and that drain is not going to be made up for by improved efficiencies in the long run.”

Of course, Biden claims this plan will create millions of “good jobs.”

Right, probably because the government is going to overpay.”

In the private sector, you have to make sure you don’t overpay because you have to be able to sell the goods and services you produce. If you pay your workers too much, the prices of your goods and services will be too high to compete. But when the government hires people, it doesn’t have to worry about it. It doesn’t matter what it pays.

It can pay whatever it wants, especially since it can print the money. So, the government doesn’t give a damn if it’s overpaying its workers. And of course, if the government starts overpaying a lot of workers, what does that do to the wages the private sector has to pay? It puts a lot of upward pressure on those wages.”

That may sound good. But eventually, the value of that money is going to collapse because, despite the tax increases, much of it will ultimately be printed by the Federal Reserve.

So yes, people are going to get these high-paying jobs, but they’re not going to be productive jobs. They may be good for the workers, but they’re not going to be good for the economy. And they won’t be good for the workers very long because pretty soon the value of those paychecks is going to collapse because they’re going to be paid in money that doesn’t buy very much.”

Peter goes on to break down and critique some of the specifics in the spending plan.

end

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

Erdogan’s actions caused a huge outflow of $1.9 billion of Turkish assets like governments bond and stocks. This caused the lira to collapse

(zerohedge)

Turkey’s central bank revamp spurs biggest outflows in 15 years

 

 

 Section: Daily Dispatches

 

By Ugur Yilmaz
Bloomberg News
Thursday, April 1, 2021

Foreign investors sold Turkish assets at the fastest pace in 15 years last week after President Recep Tayyip Erdogan unexpectedly replaced the country’s hawkish central bank governor with a vocal critic of high interest rates.

International funds sold $1.9 billion of Turkish government bonds and stocks in the week ending March 26, the biggest outflow since May 2006, according to the latest data, released today. The exodus spurred an 11% decline in the lira over the same period, pushing it close to a record low. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-01/turkey-s-central-bank…

end

This is huge! India imported a record 160 tonnes in March.  If they continue on that pace it will import:  1920 tonnes and this would be a record

(Reuters/GATA)

The more they knock the gold price down, the more India wants

 

 

 Section: Daily Dispatches

 

India’s March Gold Imports Surge 471% to a Record 160 Tonnes, Govt. Source Tells Reuters

From Reuters
Thursday, April 1, 2021

MUMBAI, India — India’s gold imports in March surged 471% from a year earlier to a record 160 tonnes, a government source told Reuters today, as a reduction in import taxes and a correction in prices from record highs drew retail buyers and jewellers.

Higher imports by the world’s second-biggest bullion consumer could support benchmark gold prices, which have corrected nearly 17% from an all-time high of $2,072 in August 2020.

… 

The surge in imports could increase India’s trade deficit and pressure the rupee.

India imported a record 321 tonnes in the March quarter, up from 124 tonnes a year ago, the source said.endsource asked to remain anonymous since he is not authorised to speak to the media.

In value terms March imports surged to $8.4 billion from $1.23 billion a year ago, he said. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN2BO5YB

end

Good luck to them trying to collect

Slade/Creamer Media Mining Weekly/GATA

Junior gold miner Rusoro’s big award against Venezuela is reinstated

 

 

 Section: Daily Dispatches

 

The court decision, the international arbitration award, and 20 trillion bolivars may buy the company a cup of coffee.

* * *

By Donna Slate
Creamer Media’s Mining Weekly
Thursday, April 1, 2021

Canadian junior Rusoro Mining reports that the French Supreme Court — the Cour de Cassation — has overturned the decision of the Paris Court of Appeal, which had annulled part of the damages portion of the arbitral award previously rendered in favor of the company.

In August 2016 Rusoro was awarded $967.77 million in damages by the Arbitration Tribunal, operating under the World Bank’s International Centre for the Settlement of Investment Disputes in an arbitration brought by Rusoro against Venezuela.

Rusoro filed its request for arbitration before the World Bank’s arbitration tribunal in July 2012 under the Canada-Ven

 

Gooezuela Bilateral Investment Treaty. In its award, the tribunal upheld Rusoro’s claims that Venezuela breached its obligations under the treaty by unlawfully expropriating Rusoro’s investments without paying compensation and by imposing certain restrictions on the export of gold.

Rusoro president and CEO Andre Agapov says this decision reinstates the arbitration award in full and will enable the company to continue to pursue recognition and enforcement of the award, the value of which is about $1.58 billion. This compares to the original award amount of $967.77-million, plus about $612.23 million of interest as calculated by Rusoro. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.miningweekly.com/article/french-supreme-court-overturns-lowe…

end

iii) Other physical stories:

 

Your early MONDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED UP at 6.5669 /

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.5761   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 18.06 pts or 0.52%

HANG SANG CLOSED 

2. Nikkei closed UP 235.25 POINTS OR .79%

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL GREEN EXCEPT SPAIN/

USA dollar index DOWN TO 92.96/Euro RISES TO 1.1757

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: RISES TO. +.12/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 110.78/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

3c Nikkei now JUST ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 60.33 and Brent: 63.58

3f Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE CLOSED UP/OFF- SHORE: UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO -.33%/Italian 10 Yr bond yield DOWN to 0.64% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.30%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 0.97: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 0.82

3k Gold at $1722.20 silver at: 24.83   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 48/100 in roubles/dollar) 76.13

3m oil into the 60 dollar handle for WTI and 63 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 110.48 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9426 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1084 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to 0.33%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 1.726% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.382%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  DOWN  TO 8.122..

Futures Ramp To Record High In Aftermath Of Blockbuster Jobs; Tesla Soars

 
MONDAY, APR 05, 2021 – 08:00 AM

S&P futures surged and most Asian stocks climbed (Europe remains closed for Easter holiday) as investors digested Friday’s unexpectedly strong jobs report which showed the strongest jobs growth in seven months and could mark the beginning of the best annual economic growth in nearly four decades. Bond yields rose modestly after Friday’s spike, while the dollar and gold were both unchanged.

At 730am, Dow E-minis were up 226 points, or 0.68%, S&P 500 E-minis were up 23 points, or 0.57% and Nasdaq 100 E-minis were up 59.75 points, or 0.45%.

Futures tracking the small-cap, domestically focused Russell 2000 jumped about 1.5% as Friday’s report showed U.S. nonfarm payrolls surged by 916,000 jobs in March, well above 647,000 forecast by a Reuters poll of economists. Treasuries pulled back from a selloff last week, with the benchmark 10-year yield steadying around 1.71%. The pound appreciated to a two-week high against the dollar as Prime Minister Boris Johnson pushed ahead with plans to reopen the economy.

Shares of U.S. banks, industrial and material firms including Bank of America, JPMorgan, Boeing and Dow which are poised to benefit from an improving economy, firmed about 1% each in premarket trading.

In notable pre-market moves, Tesla soared 7.6%, adding $50BN to its market cap, after the world’s most valuable carmaker posted record deliveries, as solid demand for its electric cars offset the impact of a global shortage of chips. Tesla delivered 184,800 vehicles globally during the first quarter of 2021, above estimates of 177,822 vehicles, according to Refinitiv data. Tesla’s shares were at $711 before the bell, while other EV makers, including NIO Inc, Workhorse Group and Xpeng Inc were up about 3%.

On the other end was Gamestop, which tumbled after the company announced a 3.5 million “at the money” stock offering

“The (EV) sector looks primed to resume its march higher, considering the surging demand for EVs in China, Europe, and the U.S. Tesla’s delivery numbers could be the spark needed to jumpstart the next rally,” said Jesse Cohen, senior analyst at Investing.com.

As Bloomberg notes, investors will be following the debate over President Joe Biden’s $2.25 trillion infrastructure proposal, as Republicans expressed guarded support for a more limited plan. The response so far in bond markets has been muted, with inflation concerns easing amid doubts over the viability more-generous spending, even as central banks remain committed to keeping interest rates lower for longer.

“The repricing of inflation risk and U.S. rates, which will impact discount rates of future earnings and the way stocks are being valued, is a source of uncertainty,” said Johanna Chua, Asia Pacific chief economist for Citigroup Global Markets.

There was some more encouraging news on the vaccine front, where China was ramping up its vaccination push, aiming to be twice as fast as the U.S. Meanwhile, a leader of the World Health Organization’s program said the rollout of shots will be expanded to 100 countries in the next couple of weeks, from 84 at present.

While many markets were closed for holidays, including China and Hong Kong, as well as much of Europe, the MSCI benchmark of Asian stocks ex-Japan advanced, with increases in Japan and South Korea. India stocks slumped the most in five weeks, bucking strength in some other Asian markets in a holiday-shortened week, as investors weighed the impact of a resurgence in virus caseloads on companies’ earnings.

Asia’s third-biggest economy posted more than a record 100,000 daily cases over the last 24-hours, an increase that pushed its richest state, Maharashtra, to order offices to work from home and shut malls and restaurants through April. “A sharp spike in coronavirus cases in the country and resultant restrictions are likely to dent investors’ sentiments in the near term,” said Binod Modi, head of strategy at Reliance Securities. Stricter movement rules in Maharashtra do not augur well even as that move is unlikely to create any supply chain issue, he added. The S&P BSE Sensex fell as much as 2.1%, the most since Feb. 26, and traded 1.9% lower as of 10.11 a.m. in Mumbai, again facing resistance around its 50-day moving average. The NSE Nifty 50 Index also dropped by a similar magnitude. Seventeen of 19 sector sub-gauges compiled by BSE Ltd. retreated, led by measures of banks and financial companies.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index edged up 0.1%, set for the first increase in three days, as trading resumed in Asia after most major financial markets were closed Friday for holidays. Trading was relatively muted as a number of nations including China and Australia are still shut. “The current state of play, including upbeat U.S. data alongside bullish fiscal plans, are more likely than not to keep the U.S. dollar’s edge intact,” said Vishnu Varathan, head of economics and strategy at Mizuho Bank Ltd. in Singapore. The pound led an advance across Group-of-10 peers before Boris Johnson outlines his plan to reopen the economy later Monday; Scandinavian currencies underperformed.

In rates, Treasuries hold most of the losses incurred during Friday’s shortened session, while the curve steepens as 30-year yields cheapen an additional ~2bp vs Friday’s close. However, as with equities, trading has been light, however, with markets including London, Australia, China and Hong Kong on holiday. In short-term rates, eurodollar futures are little changed, continuing to price in a Fed rate hike by the end of 2022 as result of the sharp selloff spurred by strong March jobs report. Treasury 10-year yields around 1.725%, slightly cheaper vs Friday close, while futures trade around 131, near bottom of Friday’s range; long-end weakness steepens 5s30s by ~3.5bp.

In commodities, oil was modestly lower after jumping on Friday when OPEC+ leaders decided to boost production by less than expected.

Investors will get a fresh glimpse of the U.S. economic health in the form of ISM’s survey of the services sector, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity. The data is due at 10 a.m. ET.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.5% to 4,028.25
  • MXAP up 0.2% to 206.83
  • MXAPJ little changed at 688.36
  • Nikkei up 0.8% to 30,089.25
  • Topix up 0.6% to 1,983.54
  • Sensex down 1.8% to 49,114.20
  • Kospi up 0.3% to 3,120.83
  • Brent Futures down 2.2% to $63.36/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.1% to $1,727.73
  • U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 93.00

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • Most Asian stocks climbed with U.S. futures Monday as investors weighed an unexpectedly strong U.S. jobs report and bonds steadied from earlier losses
  • The U.S. bond tantrum is sending a chill through indebted countries which have for years paid less to borrow more. As the American economy powers ahead, government bond yields from Australia to Italy are taking the cue and following those of the U.S. upwards
  • Emerging-market investors reeling from last month’s losses head into the first full week of April bracing for more pain driven by higher U.S. Treasury yields and a stronger dollar

A quick look at Asian markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asian equity markets traded mixed as some in the region digested last Friday’s blockbuster US jobs report in which NFP topped estimates at 916k vs. Exp. 647k and the Unemployment Rate declined to 6.0% from 6.2%, but with sentiment restricted by holiday closures for Easter Monday and the Qingming Festival. Nikkei 225 (+0.8%) was the outperformer and surpassed the 30k milestone as it sustained the momentum from the recent currency weakness and following upgrades to Japan’s Final Services and Composite PMI data for last month. The KOSPI (Unch.) was choppy amid concerns of a fresh COVID-19 wave after South Korea recently reported a 5th consecutive day of 500+ infections although LG Electronics was among the notable gainers after it decided to exit its loss-making smartphone business, while Indian markets underperformed with the NIFTY 50 (-2.3%) pressured after India reported a record increase of COVID-19 cases which rose by over 100k for the first time ever and amid the lockdown announcement for the Maharashtra state. Elsewhere, the rest of the Asia-Pac region remained quiet due to mass global closures for Monday including Australia, New Zealand, China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, UK and European markets. Finally, 10yr JGBs were marginally higher and back above the 151.00 level amid the BoJ’s presence in the market whereby it lifted the purchase amounts of JGBs as it had previously flagged and which will be at the expense of the frequency of its operations, while T-note futures remained pressured whereby prices oscillated around 131.00 amid higher yields post-NFP blockbuster data.

Top Asian News

  • Taiwan Minister Offered to Resign After Accident Killed 50
  • Philippines Warns China of Daily Protests If ‘Militia’ Stays
  • New Head of GPIF Board Says Fund Isn’t Distorting Japan’s Stocks
  • Byju’s Buys Blackstone-Backed Offline Test Prep Firm Aakash

US Event Calendar

  • 9:45am: March Markit US Services PMI, est. 60.2, prior 60.0; Markit US Composite PMI, prior 59.1;
  • 10am: Feb. Durable Goods Orders, est. -1.1%, prior -1.1%
  • 10am: Feb. Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, prior -0.8%; Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, prior -1.0%
  • 10am: Feb. Factory Orders Ex Trans, est. -1.1%, prior 1.7%;
  • Factory Orders, est. -0.5%, prior 2.6%
  • 10am: March ISM Services Index, est. 59.0, prior 55.3

end

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)MONDAY MORNING/ SUNDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 18.06 PTS OR .52%   //Hang Sang CLOSED     /The Nikkei closed UP 235.25 POINTS OR 0.79%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP AT 6.5669 /Oil UP TO 60.63 dollars per barrel for WTI and 63.58 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN EXCEPT SPAIN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.5669. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.5761   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

NORTH KOREA//USA/

END

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

Demographics and declining exports are hurting the Japanese economy

(Bruce Wilds)

Japan’s Economy Is Again Struggling

 
THURSDAY, APR 01, 2021 – 09:00 PM

Authored by Bruce Wilds via Advancing Time blog,

Japan. the world’s third-largest economy is highly dependent on exports and the reality it is still struggling even after a great deal of America’s stimulus money leaked into buying imported goods speaks volumes. While it feels a bit like ancient history, Japan’s GDP contracted at an annualized rate of 28.8 percent in Q2 of 2020, the biggest decline on record. Even after bouncing back 21.4 percent quarter-on-quarter in Q3 and 12.7 percent in Q4 Japanese national accounts are still lagging behind mid-2019 levels. For all of 2020, spending by households with at least two people fell 5.3% due to the hit from the pandemic. It was down 6.5% for all households, the worst drop since comparable data became available in 2001.

All in all, this means the country is still playing catch up, partly because Japan also experienced two additional quarters of negative growth in Q1 of 2020 and Q4 of 2019. Adding to the problem is Japan’s household spending fell for the first time in three months in December, in a sign consumer sentiment was weakening even before the government called a state of emergency to control a new wave of the coronavirus. Lower demand for services such as travel tours also weighed, as the pandemic forced the cancellation of domestic tourism promotions. Last year, spending on accommodations fell 43.7%, while overseas and domestic tour travel expenditure slumped 85.8% and 61.9%, respectively.

Not only is Japan again struggling to stay out of recession, but it also faces a wall of debt that can only be addressed by printing more money and debasing its currency. This means they will be paying off their debt with worthless yen where possible and in many cases defaulting on the promises they have made. Japancurrently has a debt/GDP ratio of about  240% which is the highest in the industrialized world. With the government financing almost 40 percent of its annual budget through debt it becomes easy to draw comparisons between Greece and Japan. 

Over the years Japan has been able to sidestep default due to the good fortune of sporting a huge trade surplus with America and forming tight economic ties with China during the years it was rapidly growing. Unfortunately, for Japan, the benefit of both those forces may be waning.China has moved up the manufacturing chain and no longer needs Japan as much as it did. This leaves Japan in the unenvious position of having to find new ways to move forward at a time when few friendly trends have surfaced to aid in its endeavor.

The Japanese economy has been no stranger to recessions even before the coronavirus outbreak. In fact, Japan experienced three mild recessions between the COVID-19 pandemic and the global financial crisis. The first was caused by the devastating earthquake and tsunami that rocked Japan in 2011. The other two and single negative growth quarters appeared to be just part of the long stagnation the Japanese economy has been in since its asset price bubble burst in the 1990s.

In the aftermath of the crisis, Japan amassed a mountain of debt that it carries to this day. Japan’s aging population and  shrinking consumer market have made it hard to revive the Japanese economy. The country’s continued reliance on exports and tendency to invest overseas rather than at home have become a big part of what Japan does. For years the now-former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe promised the country relief through his “Abenomics” economic revival program but it never did lift the country out of stagnation. The Abe administration significantly eased monetary policy and increased government spending, while simultaneously talking about needed structural reforms most of which always seemed to be pushed back or get delayed.

Japan’s GDP Is Flat Since 1990

Not all economists see more deficit spending as the answer to Japan’s problems and argue that more spending will only hurt efforts such as the recent consumption tax hike to improve Japan’s overall fiscal health. Japan holds the title of havingthe industrial world’s heaviest public debt burden. Its debt is more than twice the size of its $5 trillion economy.

The world’s negative-yielding debt hit a record $17 trillion at the start of September, mostly as a result of most Japanese debt trading in negative territory as the Bank Of Japan continues to monetize the country’s debt. All this also flows into Japan’s stock market where, when we see Japanese shares rise we are now forced to wonder how much of it has to do with Kuroda and the BOJ pumping up Japan’s stock market bybuying more ETFs. It is difficult to argue that in effect, the BOJ buying stock is not nationalizing Japanese companies.

The BOJ Owns Nearly 80% Of Japan’s ETFs

All this has morphed into a program that seems akin to fraud based on doing “whatever it takes” to give the appearance their economy is moving forward. Following along the line of thought that while there is no way of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion years ago, Ludwig von Mises wrote; “The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved.” In short, the BOJ now has little choice but to go all-in which strips away any illusion all is well. In some ways, the actions of Japan’s central bank could be considered nothing more than a new model of “stealth nationalization.” This is a course filled with moral hazard.

What we see occurring in Japan stems from a far greater problem than simply slow growth. At some point, reality will set in and the yen will suffer as a result of Japanese policies. For many years Japan’s relationship with China has bolstered the yen. The collapse of the yen would debunk the myth that major currencies in our modern world are immune to failure and release a slew of new problems across the world. While this has been expected for some time it most likely will not be the catalyst for global financial collapse since the yen constitutes around only 4% of the world’s reserve currency, however, it would gravely wound fiat currencies and alter how they are viewed. 

Factoring into all of this, in September of 2020, Yoshihide Suga, became Japan’s new prime minister. Suga took over from 65-year-old Shinzo Abe, the country’s longest-serving prime minister, who resigned due to health reasons. On the domestic stage, Suga inherits a troubled agenda swamped by the coronavirus pandemic, he also has to deal with the disaster of the postponed Tokyo Olympics. As the leader of one of America’s closest allies he also has to navigate a tense geopolitical climate resulting from the rapidly deteriorating U.S.-China relations and the idea Japan wants the U.S. to deter China’s military aggression in Asia.”

Borrowing a huge part of a nation’s economic output every year to prop up the status quo is akin to putting a Band-Aid over a wound, that in this case, is rapidly growing larger. In short, Japan’s flawed prescription for future growth will never work. Many of the policies that have failed in Japan over the decades are now being played out across the world. Interestingly, over time, the “Japanification” of the world’s economy may play out far worse for the global financial system than it did for Japan.

3 C CHINA

CHINA/JAPAN

China issues a rare strong warning to Japan on those disputed islands. China is again bullying

(zerohedge)

China Issues Rare “Strong Warning” To Japan As Disputed Island Incidents Escalate

 
THURSDAY, APR 01, 2021 – 05:20 PM

Tensions have been on the rise in the past days between China and Japan, especially after China’s defense ministry issued a Tuesday night warning for Japan to “stop making provocative moves” and to immediately halt its rhetoric condemning Beijing’s claims to disputed uninhabited islands in the East China Sea.

The statement said that “China’s defense department stressed the fact that the Diaoyu Islands and its affiliated islets are all China’s inherent territory,” according to spokesman Wu Qian. It asserted: “Japan should stop all provocative moves involving the Diaoyu problem” — which Japan calls the Senkakus.

Further according to a read-out of the message: “The Chinese side also expressed strong dissatisfaction and serious concern over its recent series of negative moves against China and asked Japan to abide by international relations criteria, stop smearing China and take practical actions to maintain China-Japan relations.”

China has spent years warning Tokyo over the islands which have been contested for over a century, and are also claimed by Taiwan. The United States officially recognizes Japan’s claims over the uninhabited islands, with Biden previously reiterating America’s commitment to protective them in accord with Article 5 of the US-Japan Security Treaty.

Beijing’s direct “strong warning” to Japan this week has been widely deemd a very “rare” move which is being interpreted more broadly as China’s maneuvering to prevent Japan from following Washington’s lead in strengthening ties with Taiwan

Senkakus, known in China as the Diaoyu Islands

Despite Japan laying claim to the islands since 1895 China began strongly reasserting claims especially in the 1970s, triggering a crisis which became more acute after in 2012 when Japan’s government purchased three of the disputed islands from a private owner. 

The area is considered potentially resource-rich, including likely oil and gas reserves, along with being considered excellent fishing grounds and close to key shipping lanes. 

Footage of prior encounters between the rival vessels…

There have been frequent hostile encounters and incidents between rival Japanese and Chinese vessels over the years with the latest involving the Japan Coast Guard warning off two Chinese government ships on Monday. Tokyo called it another “illegal intrusion by Beijing”.

END

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

Brussels Times

Maybe this should light a fire under all nations to do the same

Belgium Times

Belgium must lift ‘all Covid-19 measures’ within 30 days, Brussels court rules

 
Credit: Belga

 

 

The Belgian State has been ordered to lift “all coronavirus measures” within 30 days, as the legal basis for them is insufficient, a Brussels court ruled on Wednesday.

The League for Human Rights had filed the lawsuit several weeks ago and challenged Belgium’s system of implementing the measures using Ministerial Decrees, which means it is done without any input from parliament.

 

The judge gave the Belgian State 30 days to provide a sound legal basis, or face a penalty of €5,000 per day that this period is exceeded, with a maximum limit of €200,000, reports Le Soir.

The current coronavirus measures are based on the Civil Safety Act of 2007, which enable the State to react quickly in “exceptional circumstances,” but the judge has now ruled that these laws cannot serve as a basis for the Ministerial Decrees.

 

“The judge ruled that the principle of legality has been violated because the current way of working is not foreseeable enough,” Kati Verstrepen of the Human Rights League confirmed to VRT, adding the consequences are “not so dramatic” that from one day to the next, the measures would no longer be valid.

For the time being, the current coronavirus measures will not change, and the verdict is currently being studied by the office of Interior Minister Annelies Verlinden, reports De Standaard.

 

Appealing against the court ruling is still possible, but as it concerns a summary judgment, an appeal would not suspend the execution of the judgment.

On Wednesday afternoon, the Chamber will debate Belgium’s upcoming pandemic law, which is supposed to provide “a permanent legal basis, for taking this kind of restrictive measures during a pandemic.”

Several legal experts already pressed the Belgian State to bring forward the law as soon as possible to avoid judges cancelling fines written out for violations of the measures, and this ruling only increases the pressure to quickly adopt it.

Maïthé Chini & Lauren Walker
The Brussels Times

end

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

UKRAINE/RUSSIA

War drums getting much louder

 

War drums much louder

 
 
 
 
 
Reserves are being called up in the Donbas and in the Ukraine. With the US now telling the Ukrainians they have their back war is only a matter of time. 

 

This reminds me of the voyage of dammed, who knows where this will go with proxies and mercenaries imbedded now with Ukrainian troops. 
We are coming quickly to the point where war is all but declared. 
On the border with Belarus there are at least 25,000 troops and armor in place and the same amount is on the Polish border. My understanding is the troops on the Polish border are deterrent to any invasion by NATO forces from there to give time for Russians troops to advance in defense and for air support both in missiles and aircraft which is in place. 
WHY NATO even has an office in the Ukraine is a mystery as they are not a NATO country and are not afforded any protection by NATO by treaty. In any case, their presence will not be a deterrent to what comes. They will simply die with the Ukrainians. 
The world is creating a war where no war is needed through simple stupidity or sheer desperation after breaking economies with lockdowns. 
One can only pray for those about to die or suffer the horrors of war and to pray it stays contained without escalation beyond the Ukraine.
As for truth as in all war settings the truth of what happens or who did what will be in short supply. Much more than what it is now.
 

——————————————————————————————————————

Worst case scenario: NATO forces enter Ukraine – Alliance bases put on alert – Russian Camps emptied – Watch video 
On the border with Ukraine and the Belarusian forces 
https://youtu.be/zMi7m4dubPo

by Vasilis Kapoulas 
4/1/21 
The worst-case scenario is unfolding at the moment as Ukraine invites NATO troops for exercises and joint air patrols with NATO aircraft to “stabilize the region”.

This development came after the US-Ukraine communication and the announcement of the State Department as revealed this morning by WarNews247

At the same time, NATO forces in Poland and Romania have been on high alert.

All reports indicate that Kiev has already accepted the offer and that NATO forces will arrive in Ukraine in the coming hours.

 

US support in Ukraine 
Earlier, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin spoke by telephone with Ukrainian counterpart Andriy Taran today.

There, US Secretary of State L. Austin conveyed US readiness to support him.

“The United States will support Ukraine in the face of continued Russian aggression in Donbas and Crimea,” he said.

NATO Headquarters Alarm – Double Meetings 
At the same time, two meetings were held at NATO Headquarters. One concerned the convening of a NATO military commission over “Russian aggression.”

“The NATO Council had an urgent meeting to discuss the issue of Russian aggression.

There, the allies exchanged “common concerns about Russia and its recent large-scale military operations in eastern Ukraine and the Black Sea.”

NATO officials told Reuters:

“Russia is undermining the peace effort in eastern Ukraine. The Allies are concerned about Russian violations and large-scale Russian military mobilizations along the Ukrainian border.

Russia has violated the ceasefire 570 times since the beginning of the year.

The deputy head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, Roman Mashovets, met with Alexander Vinnikov, head of the NATO office in Ukraine, to discuss the Russian escalation of aggression in the east of the country and the concentration of forces on the border.

Watch video. Belarusian forces line up 20km from the Ukrainian border

Source including 9 videos: 
https://warnews247.gr/to-cheirotero-senario-natoikes-dynameis-eiserchontai-oukrania-adeiasan-ta-rosika-stratopeda-se-synagermo-tethikan-natoikes-vaseis-deite-vinteo/

 
 
 
Attachments area
 
Preview YouTube video Ρωσία: Φάλαγγα BTR 82AM κινείται προς τα σύνορα με την Ουκρανία | 27.03.2021 (μέρος 19)

 

END
 
Russia warns NATO not to send any troops into the Ukraine
(zerohedge)

Russia Warns NATO Against Sending Any Troops To Ukraine As “Frightening” Escalation Looms

 
FRIDAY, APR 02, 2021 – 12:20 PM

The Kremlin’s latest statements out Friday amid the potential new Ukraine crisis which has seen a serious flare-up in fighting in the Donbass region, along with what appears to be far bigger-than-usual troop movements on Russia’s side of the border, has raised the stakes further. 

Russia has vowed it will take “extra measures to ensure its own security” should it observe any deployment of NATO troops inside Ukraine, the Kremlin statement said Friday according to Reuters.

It firmly warned against any potential looming NATO troop movements following Brussels voicing concern the day prior over the widespread reports and videos purporting to show a significant Russian build-up of forces along Ukraine’s eastern border. 

 

Archive image of NATO exercises in Europe, via Allied Joint Force Command Naples

Reuters reports Russia’s Friday statement and “warning” as follows:

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on Friday that the situation at the contact line in eastern Ukraine between Ukrainian government forces and Russian-backed separatist forces was quite frightening and that multiple “provocations” were taking place there.

U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin on Thursday spoke with his Ukrainian counterpart, Andrii Taran, and “condemned recent escalations of Russian aggressive and provocative actions in eastern Ukraine,” the Pentagon said.

“Our rhetoric [over Donbass] is absolutely constructive,” Peskov said in response to journalists’ questions. “We do not indulge in wishful thinking. Regrettably, the realities along the engagement line are rather frightening. Provocations by the Ukrainian armed forces do take place. They are not casual. There have been many of them.”

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky condemned the Russian troop movements across the border, calling the situation “muscle-flexing” likely to lead to “provocations” for which Ukraine’s army is “ready”…

It was exactly a week ago that fighting in Donetsk grabbed international headlines once again when four Ukrainian national troops were killed, which Kiev promptly blamed on Russia-backed separatists. However, the Donetsk People’s Republic claimed it wasn’t the result of a direct exchange of fire, but due to inspecting a minefield.

Ukraine’s parliament followed by announcing a sharp “escalation” in the east – a contested region which has seen 14,000 deaths going back to 2014, and the country’s military leadership put the armed forces on high alert.

This also as Russian troops and armor were spotted headed into the Crimea and Ukraine’s east border region, however, Moscow brushed off the concerns while saying it’s routine to transfer forces within one’s own borders and sovereign territory.

Days later on Wednesday the US European Command (EUCOM) issued a notification of a raised ‘threat level’ in Europe. The designation is currently officially raised to one of “potential imminent crisis” due to concerns over Eastern Ukraine. 

Meanwhile intense shelling on the ground in Donetsk has continued this week, with all signs pointing to further escalation and intensity in fighting…

And on Thursday an unnamed EU diplomat was cited in Reuters as speculating the perceived build-up in Russian forces is ultimately about Russia’s posturing to gain leverage with the new Biden administration – which so far hasn’t had much of a big geopolitical challenge.

“Partly, it is the usual tactics, turning up and down the conflict to create instability, to show that Russia is a key player,” the EU diplomat said“We cannot exclude that Biden’s presidency is part of the Russian calculus, that it’s time for Moscow to show a bit of muscle.”

But Russia has pointed out that in no way is it in its interest to see a ‘hot conflict’ in Donbass:

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that most of Ukraine’s military appeared to understand the danger of a “hot conflict” in Donbass.

“I very much hope that they will not be ‘incited’ by politicians, who in turn will be ‘incited’ by the West, led by the United States,” said Lavrov.

Lavrov further issued an ominous warning: “Russian President Putin said (this) not long ago, but this statement is still relevant today, that those who would try to start a new war in Donbass – will destroy Ukraine.”

end

RUSSIA/USA: SABRE RATTLING

Biden Administration “On Alert” Over Russian “Saber Rattling In Eastern Europe & Arctic”

 
MONDAY, APR 05, 2021 – 11:25 AM

The Hill is reporting that the Biden administration is “on alert” due to what it describes as Russia’s “saber rattling in Eastern Europe and the Arctic” – particularly following last week’s Russian troop build-up in Crimea and near Ukraine’s border. 

“I think we’ve been very clear about the threats that we see from Russia across domains… We’re taking them very, very seriously,” Pentagon press secretary John Kirby had emphasized last week as the Ukraine crisis came back in Washington’s focus after Kiev charged Moscow with hostile maneuvers in Donbass. 

US defense officials also cite a recent uptick in military flights near Alaska airspace as well as submarine activity in the Arctic – some of which we recently reviewed. On Monday, the Kremlin affirmed it is at the moment holding urgent dialogue with the United States. According a statement by Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov, “Russia and the United States are in contact at the highest level over Ukraine.” 

 

Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley, via EPA/EFE

Recall that all of this, most especially events in Eastern Ukraine which witnessed the deaths of four Ukrainian Army soldiers on the Donetsk region, resulted in US European Command raising its alert status to its highest possible level last week.

It also resulted in a flurry of calls between US defense and administration officials and their Ukrainian counterparts, not to mention President Biden finally and belatedly holding his first ever phone call with Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky days ago where the two discussed the growing crisis. 

The Hill reviews where things stand during the two months since Biden took office

The Defense Department is overly observant of Russian activity after fighting resumed between Moscow-backed separatists and Ukrainian soldiers in eastern Ukraine, ending a cease-fire the two groups made last summer.

Twenty Ukrainian soldiers have been killed in the skirmishes since the start of 2021.

The two sides have been fighting since 2014 when Moscow seized and annexed Crimea from Ukraine, a conflict that Kyiv asserts has killed 14,000 people since its start

Russian jets and bombers have also frequently flown near allied airspace, forcing NATO jets to scramble to respond 10 times on Monday alone

In addition, in late March, three Russian nuclear ballistic missile submarines simultaneously broke through several feet of ice in the Arctic in a military drill, a maneuver that comes as the Kremlin has moved to raise its defenses in the Arctic.

Since 2015 Washington has sent a combined total of $2 billion in lethal assistance to Ukraine in order to stave of the “Russian threat”. Recently Biden has added to this $125 more in border security.

Rabobank comments of the growing crisis and posturing…

Meanwhile, as headlines continue to be written about Taiwan and worrying timetables, the large-scale, largely-unreported military build-up on the border between Ukraine and Russia still continues apace. Is this just very expensive military posturing? Is it a test of the resolve of the new White House? Or is it a harbinger of something far more serious that markets will soon need to worry about in a way they aren’t at present?   

Don’t ask an economist for the answer! All I can add is that Russian military analyst Pavel Felgenhauer –who may just have a slightly better grasp of the inside story and logistics than a Wall Street FX trader– is quoted as saying that “the Western powers have no idea what to do in this situation“; that the clock is ticking; and that “at the beginning of May, everything will be ready” for a Russian military advance – if they want to make one. The analogy of ‘Wag the Dog’ can now be thrown in for those who wish to do so – or G K Chesterton and believing anything.   

Talking of thrown in, however, EU High Representative Josep Borrell, who was recently humiliated in Moscow, just tweeted: “Talked to Ukraine Foreign Minister…Following with severe concern the Russian military activity surrounding Ukraine. Unwavering EU support for Ukraine sovereignty & territorial integrity” But what kind of support? The ECB’s firepower wouldn’t help at all if *actual firepower* is being used. If one were only focusing on the virus situation, it would already be a very worrying backdrop for the EU, which is suffering from a third wave and not enough vaccine, underlining its key structural weaknesses; but throw in the risk of a war nearby to deal with, and things look far worse.   

Days ago the White House said Biden “affirmed the United States’ unwavering support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity in the face of Russia’s ongoing aggression” in his phone call with Zelensky.

END
Email and commentary from Robert H to us:

Stoltenberg Comes Clean on China ‘Opportunity’ for NATO — Strategic Culture

 
 
 
 
 
 
There is much truth in what he says in the link. NATO is a imperialist tool for Neocons. And one might consider who benefits from a conflict.
 
This is from Russia : “Ukraine does not control its own troops.  Each brigade has NATO supervisors.  They do not care how Russia will act.  Their task is to drag Russia into the war.  Ukraine will be ordered to go on the offensive and they will follow that order.”
If one can accept this reality as factual, then the build up by Russia is not strictly defensive as it clearly understands that NATO is behind the Ukrainians who will be useful cannon fodder in their quest. As it is numerous mercenaries and proxies are imbedded already with the Ukrainians. How Russia will react to this once actioned goes beyond a limited battlefield and will likely depend on weapons used. And this has wider implications for Europe. For example, Russia could easily destroy all NATO bases in central and Eastern Europe as a start to prevent supply movements. Should a nuclear device be used against Russia by the Ukraine, Europe will learn the horrors of nuclear war in mere minutes as Russia will respond in kind laying waste to all NATO bases in the continent and perhaps in England. Both France and Germany remember what WWII was about, especially Germany who lost 18 million of their finest troops on the Russian front. And who in east Germany has forgotten life under a Soviet boot. Words amongst France, Germany and Russia are great political diplomacy but will lose their specter in a conflict quite quickly especially if a nuclear device is used against Russia. 
As I keep writing, this is not a winnable war against Russia so one must consider that a kinetic engagement is not thought by NATO to be a real threat to Europe, or it is not relevant. This ignores numerous Russian warnings to the contrary. 
Ukraine will be the sacrifice for an agenda and Europe will  learn a bitter lesson and if the world is lucky, it will end there. If not, then expect real hardship in Europe as supply chains become more severed than they are now due to lockdowns. Belarus has already stopped gasoline shipments to the Ukraine ( more than 1/2 of all gasoline in the Ukraine is refined in Belarus) so only storage supplies exist putting pressure on the Ukrainians as equipment needs fuel to move. I imagine such storage facilities will be destroyed in the first minutes of conflict by missile strikes. And resupply by air will be improbable as Russia will likely lock down air space accordingly making all the Ukraine a no fly zone. 
And it is unpredictable what other actors may do from Turkey to Iran ( Iran has quietly made it known their missiles can reach all of Europe) to Israel to China. Once actual combat occurs their actions my well influence the spread of conflict 
Cheers

 

Robert
END
 
Late update:

Ukraine update

 
 
 
 
 
Today’s dial turn up on the dial to war was Ukraine allowing unfettered NATO access to Ukrainian airspace.
One can safety assume NATO planes will be flying and likely give air support to the Ukrainians while gathering intelligence on Russian movements.
In turn, this will force Russia to shut down Ukrainian air space when conflict breaks out. One might assume that when and if a NATO plane is shot down this will be an excuse for NATO to have the war they so badly seem to want. It will be a very short one.
No wonder Germany and France are on the phone to Russia as they likely are powerless spectators but will be unwilling receivers of the fallout.

 

Cheers
Robert

end
 
 
IRAN/USA
Biden is proposing new sanctions relief deal despite Iran expanding its enrichment capability
Very foolish
(zerohedge)
 

Biden To Propose New Sanctions Relief Deal As Iran Again Expands Enrichment Capability

 
 
THURSDAY, APR 01, 2021 – 06:40 PM

Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani on Wednesday slammed the Biden administration’s lack of initiative in rejoining the 2015 nuclear deal, in contrast to Biden’s previously hyping such a move as he sought election (which he used to set his foreign policy vision apart from Trump’s on the campaign trail last year).

Rouhani said in his latest remarks he’s seen “no serious efforts” from the Biden White House on reviving the JCPOA. He called out the apparent hypocrisy in Biden’s denouncing Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign while yet still keeping full sanctions in place. 

Earlier this week Politico revealed a new Biden administration proposal in the works which would partially lift sanctions in exchange for an immediate reversal of some key nuclear deal violations on the part of Tehran, especially a reversal of its 20% uranium enrichment. Further, it would require Iran shutting down use of its advanced centrifuges. 

Officials told Politico that the new US plan is expected to be pitched as early as this week; however, it appears Iran has already preemptively rejected it, reiterating its demands that all sanctions be dropped first as part US compliance to what it previously agreed to in 2015

Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif said in a recent interview which underscored that the Islamic Republic can no longer trust the United States: “If the U.S. passes the test of [the 2015 deal], which doesn’t seem very likely, then we can consider other issues.” He added: “But I don’t think the U.S. would be prepared to discuss those issues. Is the U.S. ready to reduce its arms shipments to the region?”

Politico detailed of the sensitive timing of Biden’s new proposal:

“Iran is poised to blow through additional nuclear deal restrictions in the next few weeks. This is the crucial time to avoid an escalation of the situation,” said Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association, an organization that has closely tracked nuclear negotiations involving Iran.

One reason for a sense of urgency among some U.S. officials as well as those outside American government is that Iran holds presidential elections in June, with campaign season kicking off in May. The politics surrounding the 2015 nuclear agreement are very sensitive in Iran, so the theocratic regime there is unlikely to allow any major moves on it amid a campaign.

Meanwhile the clock is ticking, given Iran’s latest further uranium enrichment breach of JCPOA caps.

On Thursday morning Reuters is reporting that Iran has “started enriching uranium with a fourth cascade of 174 advanced IR-2M centrifuges at its underground Natanz plan.”

“On 31 March 2021, the Agency verified at FEP that: Iran had begun feeding natural UF6 into a fourth cascade of 174 IR-2m centrifuges,” the International Atomic Energy Agency said in the report dated Wednesday, referring to the underground Fuel Enrichment Plant and to uranium hexafluoride, the form in which uranium is fed into centrifuges for enrichment.

The report says the fresh information is based on new International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) findings obtained by Reuters.

END

Biden is nuts! You cannot deal with a terrorist organization like Iran

(zerohedge)

Breakthrough US-Iran Nuclear Talks Will Finally Be Held Tuesday In Vienna

 
FRIDAY, APR 02, 2021 – 09:21 AM

The long-awaited and until now seemingly elusive sit-down between Biden administration and Iranian officials looks to finally happen, as it’s being widely reported Friday that a meeting is set for next Tuesday in Vienna along with all major signatories to the JCPOA.

“Representatives of Iran and world powers will meet next Tuesday in Vienna to discuss the troubled 2015 nuclear deal, Iranian and European officials said after holding virtual talks on Friday aimed at reviving the accord,” Reuters reports. “Iran, China, Russia, France, Germany and Britain – all parties to the 2015 deal – discussed on Friday the possible return of the United States to the agreement and how to ensure its full and effective implementation by all sides.”

However, the US and Iranian sides so far plan to only negotiate through intermediaries while at the venue in Vienna.

 

Via European Council on Foreign Relations

The Iranian side called this week’s negotiations “frank and serious” talks after just within the past days repeatedly slamming the White House’s apparent lack of “serious effort” to restore the terms of the 2015  JCPOA.

As The Wall Street Journal has reviewed of the past 2-months of failed attempts to achieve restoration of the nuclear deal, Tehran has demanded full US compliance to what it agreed to in 2015 before, which means dropping the Trump-era sanctions, which so far the Biden team has balked at. The US side has reportedly offered various means of softening the sanctions, such as the unfreezing of Iranian assets in order to purchase humanitarian goods. 

Iran hasn’t budged, and all the while has ramped up its uranium enrichment activity while further threatening to boot IAEA inspectors from the country. Thus it’s looking like the US side has progressively crumbled in the face of Tehran’s ‘counter-pressure’ campaign (the response to US ‘maximum pressure’) as the window for Biden’s promised restoration of the nuclear deal was closing fast. 

One anonymous US official told the WSJ“At this point, it sounds that they are less interested in initial gestures than in defining what a comprehensive return to compliance would look like,” and added further: “We have no problem with that as it is consistent with our own initial view.”

The official continued: “So far, it has not been entirely clear how Iran intends to proceed as they have shifted the goal posts in terms of their preferences. I think that reflects distrust of us, no doubt, but also disunity within their system.”

By no means does the expected Tuesday meeting in Vienna signal any kind of done deal, but indeed merely the start of face-to-face talks that signals finally both sides are ready to get serious in moving forward. Iran, however, has lately said the ball is in Washington’s court, given it’s the US that broke it’s participation in 2018 under Trump, while Iran only stepped up its uranium enrichment activities (in breach of the deal) long after the fact of US exit.

end
IRAN /USA
Iran says no direct or indirect talks with the USA in high stakes Vienna nuclear talks. USA is to sit at a kiddie’s table.
Biden is out of his mind…
(zerohedge)

Iran Says No “Direct Or Indirect” Talks With US In High-States Vienna Nuclear Talks

 
SUNDAY, APR 04, 2021 – 09:55 AM

Just a day ahead of Tuesday’s much anticipated meeting among signatories to the 2015 JCPOA nuclear deal in Vienna, Iran is attempting to put some distance between itself and earlier widespread reporting that it will hold talks with the United States.

Deputy Foreign Minister for Political Affairs Abbas Araghchi told a state media outlet Sunday We will not have any direct or indirect talks with the United States in Vienna.”

Essentially this is the Iranian side emphasizing that US negotiators won’t be allowed in the same room and the talks among the UK, France, Germany, Iran, Russia and China proceed. The American delegation will – perhaps somewhat humiliatingly in terms of the optics – be confined to the kids table, apparently. 

 

Talks in 2015, Anadolu Agency/Getty

As some officials are describing, it will be “some town but not same room”:

The European parties to the accord said they would have “separate” contacts in Vienna with the United States and Iran, which has already rejected a direct meeting with the US, with a European diplomat telling Reuters news agency that, “Iran and the US will be in the same town, but not the same room.”

Particularly the European JCPOA signatories present are expected to act as intermediaries communicating messages to the US team. 

The Iranian official, however, did offer a scenario in which there could be more direct dealings:

“In our opinion, there is only one step. All of the US sanctions which were reimposed after [President Donald] Trump’s withdrawal from the JCPOA, or which have been imposed recently, or have been relabelled, must be defined and the United States must remove them, then we will verify and return to our commitments,” Araghchi said.

Immediate sanctions relief has long been the chief Iranian demand, something which so far the Biden administration has not budged on, despite multiple promises on the campaign trail of a speedy return to the nuclear deal brokered by Obama and later in 2018 broken by Trump. 

In a Friday statement, US State Dept. spokesman Ned Price indicated Washington remains “open” to more direct dealings.

“These remain early days, and we don’t anticipate an immediate breakthrough as there will be difficult discussions ahead. But we believe this is a healthy step forward,” Price began.

“We do not anticipate presently that there will be direct talks between the United States and Iran through this process, though the United States remains open to them,” he added on a more cautious note.

END

SYRIA/USA

Why USA troops will never be pulled out of Syria

(Ehsani)

Why US Troops Will Never Be Pulled Out Of Syria

 
SUNDAY, APR 04, 2021 – 11:30 PM

Authored by “Ehsani” – a Middle East expert, Syrian-American banker and financial analyst who visits the region frequently and writes for the influential geopolitical analysis blog, Syria Comment

A friend recently asked: “Surely, the American Army is not staying in Syria forever and sooner or later they will leave, no?” To his surprise, my answer was: “No, I don’t think they would leave. Why would they? It costs very little and they incur hardly any casualties.”

Moreover of all past military interventions in the region, the US presence in Syria is unique in a number of ways. It is relatively small in scope, yet it does achieve a seemingly broad set of objectives both geopolitically and even domestically.

Remember that the initial [ostensible] objective for entering Syria was to fight ISIS. Following the group’s attack on Mosul in June 2014, it only took only 8 weeks for the US to to begin air strikes against them in Iraq. A month later, these strikes were expanded into Syria.

By December 2017, ISIS had effectively lost 95% of its territory. Even though Iraq’s PM publicly declared victory against the group early that month, US strikes on Syria’s side of the border continued. It took another year till Dec 2018 for Trump to declare the defeat of ISIS.

You would have thought that Trump would get his way and that he would pull out of Syria after his mission of defeating ISIS was accomplished….But, you would be wrong. Many in the Washington establishment as well regional “allies” would quickly join forces to stop Trump.

Not surprisingly, the “system’ was able to reverse Trump’s decision. Think Tank and Op-ed pieces were quickly warning about the calamity that would soon follow any troop pull out of Syria. America’s prestige and her national interests were all at stake here, Trump was told.

Bottom line… NO U.S. President will pull out of Syria. In Washington’s thinking:

1) It costs little in lives or money

2) For a change, local terrain is friendly, i.e. the Kurds

3) It controls the oil & reinforces sanctions

4) It shows you are tough on Iran

5) It satisfies Israel and other allies

6) It leaves you at the negotiation table

* * *

Welcome to America’s next forever occupation, apparently, from which it will never willingly extricate itself, akin to Afghanistan or Iraq.

end

6.Global Issues

Michael Every on the weekend’s major stories..

(Michael Every)

Rabo: From “Play Ball” To Curve Ball In No Time At All

 
MONDAY, APR 05, 2021 – 08:50 AM

By Michael Every of Rabobank

He Believes Anything

Friday’s US payrolls report surprised to the upside, with 916K job gains vs. 660K expected, suggesting hopes for a Great Reflation. This was before new stimulus had passed, or even newer stimulus had been floated, which is likely to see some worry about inflation overshooting. More so given supply-china squeezes, Miley Cyrus giving away $1m in stonks to encourage stonk-trading, and someone paying $660,000 for an unopened 1996 copy of Super Mario Brothers. Yet —whisper it!— not everyone can spend the same on an unplayable video game as they do on an apartmentThe payrolls data reflect re-opening in several large US states that the White House has been decrying as risky; and Covid hysteresis plus hysteria remains a background threat which still has the whiff of deflation.

On which note, Bloomberg, reporting on the IMF’s latest outlook update, are inadvertently hilarious today when stating: unlike in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, the recovery looks lopsided…among the laggards are most emerging markets and the euro area.” Yes, the post-2008 recovery was *geographically* even, but it was *socially* lopsided, with almost all the gains going to the rich. That’s happening again, give or take help for those at the bottom already being rolled back outside the US. It’s just that this time even for the rich it’s a zero-sum game. In particular, the IIF continue to warn of the risk of an EM Taper Tantrum 2.0, while the IMF head states: “While the outlook has improved overall, prospects are diverging dangerously.

Special emphasis on the “dangerous”, says I, when one considering the broader backdrop.

More important than it seems, The Economist had an article Friday about growing (quasi-)religion in US political debateAllow me to quote G. K. Chesterton’s maxim: ‘When a man stops believing in God he doesn’t then believe in nothing, he believes anything.” Perhaps some will soon see that “anything” ironically includes the neoclassical economic policy peddled by The Economist et al., when it is that deregulation, globalization, and financialization which led to the backdrop of so many people so obviously desperate for some alternative belief, no matter how atavistic and/or utopian.

Regardless, the facts are that:

  1. observers outside economics spotted this emergent socio-psychological trend years ago;

  2. yes, it means policy debate then becomes faith, not evidenced based;

  3. which means even deeper political polarization; and

  4. that translates into more surprises for markets.

For the latest example, see Georgia’s passing of a new voting act; major firms calling for a boycott of the state because of it; and Georgia Republicans and former President Trump threatening to remove tax breaks from and calling for a public boycott of said firms. From ‘Play ball!’ to curve ball in no time at all: and expect a lot more of this to come all over.

But the danger is larger than that. The same Economist policy cocktail has arguably led to the present geopolitical backdrop, where the US and China are in a new form of Cold War and others are caught in the middle (and as The Economist says blasé-ly and more-than-five-years too-late-ly that: “China is betting that the West is in irreversible decline”).

This matters hugely for global firms too: for example, H&M, who face consumer sanction in China for their stance over Xinjiang cotton, have tried to rebuild bridges by including China’s “9-dash line” on maps printed on some their clothes…..and so now face a consumer boycott in Vietnam as a result. Weren’t global CEOs promised by The Economist that they were always the top dogs? And now they aren’t, which tail are they ultimately going to choose to be wagged by?

Meanwhile, as headlines continue to be written about Taiwan and worrying timetables, the large-scale, largely-unreported military build-up on the border between Ukraine and Russia still continues apace. Is this just very expensive military posturing? Is it a test of the resolve of the new White House? Or is it a harbinger of something far more serious that markets will soon need to worry about in a way they aren’t at present?

Don’t ask an economist for the answer! All I can add is that Russian military analyst Pavel Felgenhauer –who may just have a slightly better grasp of the inside story and logistics than a Wall Street FX trader– is quoted as saying that “the Western powers have no idea what to do in this situation”; that the clock is ticking; and that “at the beginning of May, everything will be ready” for a Russian military advance – if they want to make one. The analogy of ‘Wag the Dog’ can now be thrown in for those who wish to do so – or G K Chesterton and believing anything.

Talking of thrown in, however, EU High Representative Josep Borrell, who was recently humiliated in Moscow, just tweeted: “Talked to Ukraine Foreign Minister…Following with severe concern the Russian military activity surrounding Ukraine. Unwavering EU support for Ukraine sovereignty & territorial integrity.” But what kind of support? The ECB’s firepower wouldn’t help at all if *actual firepower* is being used. If one were only focusing on the virus situation, it would already be a very worrying backdrop for the EU, which is suffering from a third wave and not enough vaccine, underlining its key structural weaknesses; but throw in the risk of a war nearby to deal with, and things look far worse.

But this won’t happen, right? Hopefully not. Yet even The Economist (again) has another article about how the French army is “planning for high-intensity war”. Working groups have been set up to examine things like munition shortages and the resilience of society, including whether French citizens are “ready to accept the level of casualties we have never seen since WW2”. They presume they have a decade to prepare for it…but perhaps they don’t looking at the timetables above. At least they are doing somethingmost of the EU still seems to think the bloc is protected by some kind of “Imaginot Line”.

So what should one believe in? G K Chesterton, at least.

end

Rand Paul faces off against Fauci after the CDC confirms that vaccinated and recovered patients cannot pass on the COVID. Not sure that vaccinated people cannot pass the virus

(Watson/SummitNews)

Rand Paul “Pages” Fauci With CDC Confirmation That Vaccinated And Recovered Cannot Pass On COVID

 
THURSDAY, APR 01, 2021 – 07:00 PM

Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,

Senator Rand Paul shared video Wednesday of CDC Director Rochelle Walensky announcing that new data suggests vaccinated and recovered people do not carry Covid-19.

Paul directed his comments at White House chief medical advisor Anthony Fauci, writing “paging Dr Fauci:  please end the mask theater now that cdc admits evidence that the vaccinated do not carry the virus.”

In a further post, Paul also shared a study examining T cell responses in people who have recovered from Covid-19.

“T cell immunity after natural infection shown to include variants,” Paul, who is also a physician, noted.

He again addressed Fauci, asking “Do we still need to wear multiple masks after we’ve recovered or been vaccinated?”

The Senator clashed with Fauci a fortnight ago, telling him “You’ve been vaccinated and you parade around in two masks for show. You can’t get it again.”

“There’s virtually zero percent chance you’re going to get it and you’re telling people that have had the vaccine who have immunity — You’re defying everything we know about immunity by telling people to wear masks who have been vaccinated,” Paul charged during the hearing.

Fauci has repeatedly flip flopped on the efficacy of masks, and has admitted that there is little science behind lockdown restrictions.

Nevertheless, Facui still will not drop the mask charade, even suggesting that the world needs to carry on wearing them into 2022, and that children should be wearing them in order to play together, until they are all vaccinated from the age of 6 months old.

*  *  *

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END

We have indicated this to you on many occasions: sunlight destroys the COVID. Now scientists believe it destroys COVID 8 x faster than no sun

 

(zerohedge) 

Trump Was Right: Sunlight Destroys COVID 8x Faster Than Scientists Believed, Study Shows

 
FRIDAY, APR 02, 2021 – 03:10 PM

As it turns out, President Trump might have been on to something last spring when he rambled during a press conference about the possibility that “sunlight” could be leveraged to destroy the virus.

Research recently published by a team of academics at UC Santa Barbara found that the coronavirus is “inactivated” by sunlight as much as 8x faster than “current theoretical modelling” had anticipated. UC Santa Barbara assistant professor of mechanical engineering Paolo Luzzatto-Fegiz analyzed studies exploring the effects of different forms of UV radiation on SARS-CoV-2, and found a significant discrepancy, according to RT.

As with all electromagnetic radiation, UV falls on a spectrum. Longer-wave UVA reacts differently with parts of DNA and RNA than mid-range UV waves that are found in sunlight. These shorter-range waves can kill microbes and cause sunburns in humans. While short-wave UV radiation has been shown to deactivate viruses like SARS-CoV-2, light from this end of the spectrum is often deflected away from humanity by the Earth’s ozone lawyer.

But an analysis of various studies of how different types of UV light interacts with SARS-CoV-2 found that COVID should disintegrate even more quickly when exposed to summer sunlight, which features more short-wave radiation, one reason risk of contracting the virus outdoors during the summer is much, much lower than being indoors in the winter.

In practice, the team found that “inactivation” of virus particles rendered in simulated saliva was more than 8x faster than scientists believed in conditions similar to summer sunlight.

A July 2020 experimental study tested the power of UV light on SARS-CoV-2, contained in simulated saliva, and found the virus was inactivated in under 20 minutes.

However, a theory published a month later suggested sunlight could achieve the same effect, which didn’t quite add up. This second study concluded that SARS-CoV-2 was three times more sensitive to UV radiation in sunlight than the influenza A virus.

The vast majority of coronavirus particles were rendered inactive within 30 minutes of exposure to midday summer sunlight, whereas the virus could survive for days under winter sunlight.

“The experimentally observed inactivation in simulated saliva is over eight times faster than would have been expected from the theory,” Luzzatto-Feigiz and his team said. “So, scientists don’t yet know what’s going on.”

The UC Santa Barbara team hypothesized that the process that destroys the virus is similar to a process seen in wastewater treatment plants.

The team suspects that, as the UVC doesn’t reach the Earth, instead of directly attacking the RNA, the long-wave UVA in sunlight interacts with molecules in the virus’ environment, such as saliva, which speeds up the inactivation, in a process witnessed previously in wastewater treatment.

Their research suggests that an air filtration system equipped with certain types of UVA-emitters could dramatically reduce the spread of viral particles indoors.

For some reason, all this research about the effects of sunlight on the virus has been ignored by governments like the Spanish government, which recently ordered masks to be worn outdoors, something the country’s hospitality industry fears will destroy more already-embattled businesses while contributing nothing to the public safety effort. But maybe soon that will change.

END

From anonymous:

Reasons for not getting a vaccine.

 
 

>
>
>    Nicked from a friend’s private post, so I couldn’t share the link… if nothing  else, each of us should carefully reflect upon the questions being raised.
>
>
>
>    Forget cat pictures and forget walking on eggshells. This is an unprecedented time in human history and to stay silent is to allow tyranny, dictatorship and destruction to waltz in and take us all down, which is exactly what is happening in Israel right now and what is heading our way. If you are too naive to see this then you have my pity.
>
>    Below is a list written by Israeli Rabbi, Chananya Weissman, identifying his reasons for not taking part in this experiment. I agree with every word and could not have said it better myself!
>
>    31 Reasons Why I Won’t Take the Vaccine, by Chananya Weissman:
>
>    1.It’s not a vaccine. A vaccine by definition provides immunity to a disease. This does not provide immunity to anything. In a best-case scenario, it merely reduces the chance of getting a severe case of a virus if one catches it. Hence, it is a medical treatment, not a vaccine. I do not want to take a medical treatment for an illness I do not have.

(Harvey: correct)
>
>    2.The drug companies, politicians, medical establishment, and media have joined forces to universally refer to this as a vaccine when it is not one, with the intention of manipulating people into feeling safer about undergoing a medical treatment. Because they are being deceitful, I do not trust them, and want nothing to do with their medical treatment.
(correct)
>
>    3.The presumed benefits of this medical treatment are minimal and would not last long in any case. The establishment acknowledges this, and is already talking about additional shots and ever-increasing numbers of new “vaccines” that would be required on a regular basis. I refuse to turn myself into a chronic patient who receives injections of new pharmaceutical products on a regular basis simply to reduce my chances of getting a severe case of a virus that these injections do not even prevent.
>
>    4.I can reduce my chances of getting a severe case of a virus by strengthening my immune system naturally. In the event I catch a virus, there are vitamins and well-established drugs that have had wonderful results in warding off the illness, without the risks and unknowns of this medical treatment.
>
>    5.The establishment insists that this medical treatment is safe. They cannot possibly know this because the long-term effects are entirely unknown, and will not be known for many years. They may speculate that it is safe, but it is disingenuous for them to make such a claim that cannot possibly be known. Because they are being disingenuous, I do not trust them, and I want no part of their treatment. (correct)
>
>    6.The drug companies have zero liability if anything goes wrong, and cannot be sued. Same for the politicians who are pushing this treatment. I will not inject myself with a new, experimental medical device when the people behind it accept no liability or responsibility if something goes wrong. I will not risk my health and my life when they refuse to risk anything. (correct)
>
>    7.Israel’s Prime Minister has openly admitted that the Israeli people are the world’s laboratory for this experimental treatment. I am not interested in being a guinea pig or donating my body to science.
>
>    8.Israel agreed to share medical data of its citizens with a foreign drug company as a fundamental part of their agreement to receive this treatment. I never consented for my personal medical data to be shared with any such entity, nor was I even asked. I will not contribute to this sleazy enterprise.
>
>    9.The executives and board members at Pfizer are on record that they have not taken their own treatment, despite all the fanfare and assurances. They are claiming that they would consider it unfair to “cut the line”. This is a preposterous excuse, and it takes an unbelievable amount of chutzpah to even say such a thing. Such a “line” is a figment of their own imagination; if they hogged a couple of injections for themselves no one would cry foul. In addition, billionaires with private jets and private islands are not known for waiting in line until hundreds of millions of peasants all over the world go first to receive anything these billionaires want for themselves. (interesting))
>
>    10.The establishment media have accepted this preposterous excuse without question or concern. Moreover, they laud Pfizer’s executives for their supposed self-sacrifice in not taking their own experimental treatment until we go first. Since they consider us such fools, I do not trust them, and do not want their new treatment. They can have my place in line. I’ll go to the very back of the line.
>
>    11.Three facts that must be put together:
>
>    Bill Gates is touting these vaccines as essential to the survival of the human race.
>
>    Bill Gates believes the world has too many people and needs to be “depopulated”.
>
>    Bill Gates, perhaps the richest man in the world, has also not been injected. No rush.
>
>    Uh, no. I’ll pass on any medical treatments he wants me to take.
>
>    12.The establishment has been entirely one-sided in celebrating this treatment. The politicians and media are urging people to take it as both a moral and civic duty. The benefits of the treatment are being greatly exaggerated, the risks are being ignored, and the unknowns are being brushed aside. Because they are being deceitful and manipulative, I will not gamble my personal wellbeing on their integrity.
>
>    13.There is an intense propaganda campaign for people to take this treatment. Politicians and celebrities are taking selfies of themselves getting injected (perhaps in some cases pretending to get injected), the media is hyping this as the coolest, smartest, most happy and fun thing to do. It is the most widespread marketing campaign in history. This is not at all appropriate for any medical treatment, let alone a brand new one, and it makes me recoil.
>
>    14.The masses are following in tow, posting pictures of themselves getting injected with a drug, feeding the mass peer pressure to do the same. There is something very alarming and sick about this, and I want no part of it. I never took drugs just because “everyone’s doing it” and it’s cool. I’m certainly not going to start now.
>
>    15.Those who raise concerns about this medical treatment are being bullied, slandered, mocked, censored, ostracized, threatened, and fired from their jobs. This includes medical professionals who have science-based concerns about the drug and caregivers who have witnessed people under their charge suffering horrible reactions and death shortly after being injected. When the establishment is purging good people who risk everything simply to raise concerns about a new medical treatment — even if they don’t outright oppose it — I will trust these brave people over the establishment every time. I cannot think of a single similar case in history when truth and morality turned out to be on the side of the establishment.
>
>    16.This is the greatest medical experiment in the history of the human race.
>
>    17.It is purposely not being portrayed as the greatest medical experiment in the history of the human race, and the fact that it is a medical experiment at all is being severely downplayed.
>
>    18.Were they up front with the masses, very few would agree to participate in such an experiment. Manipulating the masses to participate in a medical experiment under false pretenses violates the foundations of medical ethics and democratic law. I will not allow unethical people who engage in such conduct to inject me with anything.
>
>    19.The medical establishment is not informing people about any of this. They have become marketing agents for an experimental drug, serving huge companies and politicians who have made deals with them. This is a direct conflict with their mandate to concern themselves exclusively with the wellbeing of the people under their care. Since the medical establishment has become corrupted, and has become nothing more than a corporate and political tool, I do not trust the experimental drug they want so badly to inject me with.
>
>    20.We are being pressured in various ways to get injected, which violates medical ethics and the foundations of democratic society. The best way to get me not to do something is to pressure me to do it.
>
>    21.The government has sealed their protocol related to the virus and treatments for THIRTY YEARS. This is information that the public has a right to know, and the government has a responsibility to share. What are they covering up? Do they really expect me to believe that everything is kosher about all this, and that they are concerned first and foremost with my health? The last time they did this was with the Yemenite Children Affair. If you’re not familiar with it, look it up. Now they’re pulling the same shtick. They didn’t fool me the first time, and they’re definitely not fooling me now.
>
>    22.The government can share our personal medical data with foreign corporations, but they won’t share their own protocol on the matter with us? I’m out.
>
>    23.The establishment has recruited doctors, rabbis, the media, and the masses to harangue people who don’t want to get injected with a new drug. We are being called the worst sort of names. We are being told that we believe in crazy conspiracies, that we are against science, that we are selfish, that we are murderers, that we don’t care about the elderly, that it’s our fault that the government continues to impose draconian restrictions on the public. It’s all because we don’t want to get injected with an experimental treatment, no questions asked. We are even being told that we have a religious obligation to do this, and that we are grave sinners if we do not. They say that if we do not agree to get injected, we should be forced to stay inside our homes forever and be ostracized from public life.
>    This is horrific, disgusting, a perversion of common sense, morality, and the Torah. It makes me recoil, and only further cements my distrust of these people and my opposition to taking their experimental drug. How dare they?
>
>    24.I know of many people who got injected, but none of them studied the science in depth, carefully weighed the potential benefits against the risks, compared this option to other alternatives, was truly informed, and decided this medical treatment was the best option for them. On the contrary, they got injected because of the hype, the propaganda, the pressure, the fear, blind trust in what “the majority of experts” supposedly believed (assuming THEY all studied everything in depth and were completely objective, which is highly dubious), blind trust in what certain influential rabbis urged them to do (ditto the above), or hysterical fear that the only option was getting injected or getting seriously ill from the virus. When I see mass hysteria and cult-like behavior surrounding a medical treatment, I will be extremely suspicious and avoid it.
>
>    25.The drug companies have a long and glorious history of causing mass carnage with wonder drugs they thrust on unsuspecting populations, even after serious problems had already become known. Instead of pressing the pause button and halting the marketing of these drugs until these issues could be properly investigated, the drug companies did everything in their power to suppress the information and keep pushing their products. When companies and people have demonstrated such gross lack of concern for human life, I will not trust them when they hype a new wonder drug. This isn’t our first rodeo.
>
>    26.Indeed, the horror stories are already coming in at warp speed, but the politicians are not the least bit concerned, the medical establishment is brushing them aside as unrelated or negligible, the media is ignoring it, the drug companies are steaming ahead at full speed, and those who raise a red flag continue to be bullied, censored, and punished. Clearly my life and my wellbeing are not their primary concern. I will not be their next guinea pig in their laboratory. I will not risk being the next “coincidence”.
>
>    27.Although many people have died shortly after getting injected — including perfectly healthy young people — we are not allowed to imply that the injection had anything to do with it. Somehow this is anti-science and will cause more people to die. I believe that denying any possible link, abusing people who speculate that there might be a link, and demonstrating not the slightest curiosity to even explore if there might be a link is what is anti-science and could very well cause more people to die. These same people believe I am obligated to get injected as well. No freaking thanks.
>
>    28.I am repulsed by the religious, cult-like worship of a pharmaceutical product, and will not participate in this ritual.
>
>    29.My “healthcare” provider keeps badgering me to get injected, yet they have provided me no information on this treatment or any possible alternatives. Everything I know I learned from others outside the establishment. Informed consent has become conformed consent. I decline.
>
>    30.I see all the lies, corruption, propaganda, manipulation, censorship, bullying, violation of medical ethics, lack of integrity in the scientific process, suppression of inconvenient adverse reactions, dismissal of legitimate concerns, hysteria, cult-like behavior, ignorance, closed-mindedness, fear, medical and political tyranny, concealment of protocols, lack of true concern for human life, lack of respect for basic human rights and freedoms, perversion of the Torah and common sense, demonization of good people, the greatest medical experiment of all time being conducted by greedy, untrustworthy, godless people, the lack of liability for those who demand I risk everything… I see all this and I have decided they can all have my place in line. I will put my trust in God. I will use the mind He blessed me with and trust my natural instincts. Which leads to the final reason which sums up why I will not get “vaccinated.”
>
>    31.The whole thing stinks!
>
>    ======== 🔥
>    Everyone on the planet should read this message below from Ex-Bill Gates Virologist who says, “STOP MASS VACCINES AS FAST AS POSSIBLE”
>
>    Potential drawbacks could result in a lot more deaths down the road…
>
>    Send to everyone you care about…
>    ======== 🔥
>
>    https://www.google.com/amp/s/ugolini.co.th/ugolini/geert-vanden-bossche-former-virologist-of-bill-gates-stop-all-mass-vaccination-campaigns-against-covid-19/amp/
 
END
 
CORONAVIRUS UPDATE/VACCINE UPDATE
 
Netherlands is the latest to holt AZ’s vaccine linking blood clots.
(zerohedge)

Netherlands Latest To Halt AstraZeneca Jab As Australia Admits “Likely” Blood-Clot Link

 
SATURDAY, APR 03, 2021 – 01:00 PM

Yesterday, regulators in the UK reluctantly acknowledged – or so it seemed, anyway – 25 new cases of rare blood clots linked to the AstraZeneca vaccine. Several of the individuals had died due to the complications. 5 earlier cases had been deemed not serious, but now it appears people are dying in the country that probably has the most to lose if the AstraZeneca jab were to be found defective.

After all, a massive share of Britons who have been inoculated so far were inoculated with the AstraZeneca vaccine, which was approved for emergency use in the UK late last year, though regulators in the US are only just now starting the process of assessing its efficacy according to the trial data, and its risks.

Despite finally revealing that 7 Britons have died due to side-effects brought on by the vaccine, Britain’s medicines regulator on Saturday announced that the vaccine is “safe” and that it’s not clear whether the shots are causing the clots (though researchers in Germany and elsewhere appear to have found evidence of a link). Here’s more from the AP:

In total, MHRA said had identified 30 cases of rare blood clot events out of 18.1 million AstraZeneca doses administered up to and including March 24. The risk associated with this type of blood clot is “very small,” it added.

“The benefits of COVID-19 vaccine AstraZeneca in preventing COVID-19 infection and its complications continue to outweigh any risks and the public should continue to get their vaccine when invited to do so,” said Dr. June Raine, the agency’s chief executive.

Meanwhile, the Netherlands yesterday became the latest developed nation to halt administration of the vaccine. Initially, the Dutch government (where PM Mark Rutte is facing a worsening political crisis) planned to restrict vaccinations to people under the age of 60, like Germany opted to do. But they decided to simply halt vaccinations to avoid potential waste of precious vaccines. According to Reuters, Dutch Health Minister Hugo de Jonge said the temporary halt is “a precautionary measure,” echoing language used by virtually every European leader who has restricted access to the AstraZeneca jab, which has long been an object of suspicion following unusual complications that emerged during the trials, and led to brief halts in the UK, US and elsewhere.

More European nations are expected to suspend the AstraZeneca vaccine, many for the second time, following the latest revelations out of the UK, which only served to further erode trust in the EMA/WHO and their insistence that the risks of the vaccine are miniscule compared with the vast societal benefit. But fortunately for the UK, and AstraZeneca – a company that’s dual headquarters are in the UK and Sweden since it was created by the merger of the Swedish Astra AB and the British Zeneca Group back in 1999 – Australia said Saturday that t will continue its inoculation program with the AZ jab.

The decision follows a highly publicized case where a 44-year-old man was admitted to a Melbourne hospital with suspicious clotting like that seen elsewhere, Suffering serious Thrombosis, a condition that prevents normal blood flow through the circulatory system, the man’s case simply couldn’t be ignored. After meeting hastily on Friday and Saturday, the Therapeutic Goods Administration (Australia’s top drug regulator) ruled that the program would continue without changes, according to Reuters. That is, at least for now.

While Australia’s deputy chief medical officer, Michael Kidd, told a televised briefing Saturday afternoon that “we have not been advised at this time by ATAGI or the TGA to pause the rollout of the AstraZeneva vaccine in Australia,” he simultaneously acknowledged that the clotting incident was “likely” related to the AstraZeneca jab,” even as officials in the UK continue to insist that there’s no evidence of a link. However, he insisted, as other public health officials have, that the risks of serious side effects remains “very low.”

end

Ivermectin

Dr. Satoshi Ōmura, co-developer of #ivermectin: “A meta-analysis reported improvements of 83% in early treatment, 51% in late treatment, & 89% in the prevention of [COVID-19]. The probability of this judgment being a mistake is as low as 1 in 4 trillion. 

https://bit.ly/3cNypPe

 

 
Everyone here should be taking Ivermectin. It’s one of the safest drugs known to mankind and is extraordinarily effective against Covid. My supply was tested with HPLC and found to be pure. I’m happy to provide for everyone.
 
This is in sharp contrast to the vaccines which have side effects that are killing people at a rate thousands of times higher than a flu shot, but the death rate of Covid is similar to influenza. And the side effects are not even the real danger of these vaccines.
 
A healthy 60 year old is around 40x more likely to die of the side effects of the Pfizer vaccine as compared to getting Covid itself, according to the Israeli data from around a month ago. 
 
end

Great video that explains something important

 
From my son:
 
 
 
 
 
 
One reason why Ivermectin is suppressed in the US may be that the NIH co-owns the patent with Moderna for its vaccine, and if there is an effective therapeutic approved for Covid then vaccines are not allowed to be given out. So, there is no way that the health authorities will approve Ivermectin, no matter how compelling the data. There is no money in it because it is cheap and off patent.

 

 
Video here from a board certified MD/PhD. Watch it before YouTube bans it like they are other truth tellers.

 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Attachments area
 
Preview YouTube video How effective is Ivermectin against the Covid-19 Virus? By Dr. Ryan Cole.

 

end
 

7. OIL ISSUES

Crude Is Crashing

 
MONDAY, APR 05, 2021 – 01:11 PM

After its exuberant rip on the day that the latest OPEC+ deal was announced last week, crude prices have collapsed, with WTI plunging back below $60, as reality sets in on what that supply surge really means (combined with Iranian output rising) and demand fears (as European nations lockdown and China demand lags).

The OPEC+ decision to gradually raise output “was contrary to some expectations that the group would take a status quo approach over the near-term,” said Robbie Fraser, manager, global research & analytics at Schneider Electric.

It also “suggests that members are both confident about a continuing demand recovery, and potentially cautious as U.S. shale looks to bounce back from 2020 losses.”

But the rise in OPEC+ output combined with concerns over Chinese import demand may be factors in Monday’s weakness.

The Financial Times reported Sunday that the People’s Bank of China had instructed foreign and domestic lenders to keep loan growth in the first quarter at roughly the same level as last year, if not lower.

“This is not great news as the commodities cycle grows longer in the tooth and oil prices could be reacting adversely to this impulse,” said Stephen Innes, chief global markets strategist at Axi, in a note.

Meanwhile, analysts pointed to signs of increased Iranian crude shipments despite U.S. sanctions, with a Reuters survey indicating Iranian supply rose by 210,000 barrels a day to average 2.3 million barrels a day in March.

The answer is evident as WTI crashed over 6%…

Of course, if ever you needed a reason to sell, it was Goldman Sachs’ bullish call, saying that it anticipates strong demand that would require OPEC+ putting another 2 million barrels per day (bpd) on the market in the third quarter, after the around 2 million bpd that the alliance and Saudi Arabia decided to return between May and July.

“We forecast a larger rebound in oil demand this summer than OPEC and the IEA, requiring an additional 2 mb/d increase in OPEC+ production from July to October,” Goldman Sachs said, as quoted by CN Wire.

The investment bank expects excess oil inventories to normalize by the fall of 2021.

That maybe the case, but for now, traders ain’t buying it.

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 
 
 
END

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings MONDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1757 UP .0010 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS//CORONAVIRUS/PANDEMIC/TRUMP POSITIVE WITH VIRUS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /ALL GREEN EXCEPT SPAIN

USA/JAPAN YEN 110.48 DOWN 0.113 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.3867  UP   0.0052  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/

USA/CAN 1.2549 DOWN .0013 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  MONDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE BY 10 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.1747 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE UP 18,06 PTS OR 0.52% 

//Hang Sang CLOSED 

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED // EUROPEAN BOURSES closed

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES CLOSED

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang  

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 18.06 PTS OR 0.52% 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED  

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 235.25  POINTS OR 0.92%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1726.40

silver:$24.98-

Early MONDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 1.726% !!! UP 1 IN POINTS from THURSDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

The 30 yr bond yield 2.382 UP 2  IN BASIS POINTS from THURSDAY night.

USA dollar index early MONDAY morning: 92.96 DOWN 6 CENT(S) from  THURSDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers MONDAY MORNING

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And now your closing  MONDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.21% DOWN 0 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.12.%  UP 0   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.31%//DOWN 0 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:  0.64 DOWN 0 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 33 points higher than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.33% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 0.96% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR MONDAY

Closing currency crosses for MONDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1810 UP     .0052 or525 basis points

USA/Japan: 110.10 DOWN .494 OR YEN DOWN 18  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3902 UP .0087 POUND UP 87  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar UP 43 basis points to 1.2518

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The USA/Yuan,  CNY: closed    ON SHORE  (UP).. 6.5669

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.750  (YUAN UP)..6.5565

TURKISH LIRA:  8.13  EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.12%

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 2 IN basis points from THURSDAY at 1.702 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.368 UP 1 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 92.58 DOWN 44  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for MONDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED 

 

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 

 

Paris Cac CLOSED 

 

Spain IBEX CLOSED  

 

Italian MIB: CLOSED 

 

WTI Oil price; 59.05 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 62.66 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE RISES:    76.23  THE CROSS LOWER BY 0.20 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE HIGHER BY 20 BASIS PTS)

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.33 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OILPRICE 4:30 PM : 58.75//

BRENT :  62.24

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 1.709..down 1 basis points…

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.359 down 0 basis points..

EURO/USA 1.1811 ( UP 53   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:110.20 down .359 (YEN up 36 BASIS POINTS/..

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 92.60 down 43 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.3905 UP 90  POINTS

the Turkish lira close: 8.12

the Russian rouble 76.36   UP 0.07 Roubles against the uSA dollar. (UP 7 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.2551  down  13 BASIS pts

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.32%

The Dow closed UP 373.98 POINTS OR 1.13%

NASDAQ closed UP 268.65 POINTS OR 2.02%


VOLATILITY INDEX:  17.85 CLOSED UP 0.52

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 0.194%//libor dropping like a stone

USA trading today in Graph Form

Dollar Dumped; Crude Crushed; Bonds, Bitcoin, & Big-Tech Bid

 
MONDAY, APR 05, 2021 – 04:00 PM

What a difference a weekend makes (and remember that most of Europe and Asia was also on holiday today too). The message from the market today to the reflation trade was simple…

Small Caps puked back all their exuberant payrolls gains and big-tech (growth) was panic-bid today (dragging S&P and the Dow to new record highs)…

For some context, the surge in Small Caps relative to Big-Tech during Friday’s futures session was utterly erased  today, sending Nasdaq back to its strongest against the Russell 2000 since 3/25…

Energy was ugly from the open and got uglier. Tech spiked at the open and kept going but for most of the rest of the S&P sectors the opening gap up was as good as it got…

Source: Bloomberg

Growth dramatically outperformed Value today…

Source: Bloomberg

It appears the Archegos selling is not over as various big holdings (including GSX Techedu, Tencent, Disocvery, and ViacomCBS) were all hammered today.

Also GME tumbled on news of a secondary, but most of those losses were recovered intraday…

FANG Stocks broke out to a new record high…

Source: Bloomberg

VIX was noisy today but ended higher despite stock gains, after closing on its lows on Thursday.

Bonds, which were dumped on Friday, rallied back today (but remain higher from pre-payrolls). The belly led the way today with 5Y -4bps on the day…

Source: Bloomberg

A test to the upside (for yields) and downside but 10Y ended the day unchanged with no follow-through from Friday’s fragging…

Source: Bloomberg

Notably, if the reversion in big-tech vs small caps is ‘true’ then 10Y yields should be 35bps lower…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar was dumped back to two-week lows. Today’s drop tested the 200DMA…

Source: Bloomberg

Crypto soared over the long weekend, pushing the market cap of the entire space above $2 trillion… equal to that of Apple…

Source: CoinMarketCap

Ethereum was the biggest gainer, breaking out from $2000 on Friday and hitting $2100 today…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin tagged $60,000 (record high) on Friday, puked over the weekend, but bounced back today above $59,000…

Source: Bloomberg

Crude was clubbed like a baby seal, erasing all the hope-filled gains from the OPEC+ decision with WTI plunging back below $60 and finding support in its recent range…

Despite the dollar’s drop, gold trod water today…

Finally, net aggregate central bank balance sheet expansion (in USD) has stagnated…

Source: Bloomberg

And the market is pricing in dramatically more aggressive timing and trajectory for rate-hikes…

Source: Bloomberg

So the markets are running out of liquidity support and tightening is being priced in… what will stocks do?

a)Market trading/FRIDAY/NON FARM PAYROLLS/USA

A BIG BEAT:  916,000 JOBS//FRIDAY MORNING

Futures Explode Higher After Payrolls Beat, Yields & Dollar Rise

FRIDAY, APR 02, 2021 – 08:46 AM

The massive payrolls beat sparked an utter buying panic in US equity futures, with Small Caps massively outperforming…

This move has erased all of the losses since March’s FOMC..

.

Small Caps have now erased all of their relative underperformance against Nasdaq from the end of March…

Bond yields are also spiking with 10Y pushing up towards 1.70% (but the move is de minimus relative to stocks)…

The dollar was also bid…

The market is now pricing in one rate hike by the end of 2022…

So, after this “good” news, how long before The Fed has to start tamping down the exuberance?

END

They are at it again with fudging numbers;  75% of the gain was for waiters and bartenders.

(zerohedge)

Who’s Hiring And Who’s Firing: A Golden Age For Waiters And Teachers

 
FRIDAY, APR 02, 2021 – 10:40 AM

Not only was the March payrolls report a blockbuster, golidlocks number, much higher than expected but not too high to spark immediate reflation/hike fears thanks to subdued wage inflation, job growth in March was also widespread unlike February, where 75% of all new jobs were waiters and bartenders. By contrast, in March the largest gains occurring across most industries with the bulk taking place in leisure and hospitality, public and private education, and construction.

Here is a full breakdown:

  • Employment in leisure and hospitality increased by 280,000 in Marchas pandemic-related  restrictions eased in many parts of the country. Nearly two-thirds of the increase was in food services and drinking places (+176,000). Job gains also occurred in arts, entertainment, and recreation (+64,000) and in accommodation (+40,000). Employment in leisure and hospitality is down by 3.1 million, or 18.5 percent, since February 2020.

  • In March, employment increased in both public and private education, reflecting the continued resumption of in-person learning and other school-related activities in many parts of the country. Employment rose by 76,000 in local government education, by 50,000 in  state government education, and by 64,000 in private education. Employment is down from February 2020 in local government education (-594,000), state government education (-270,000), and private education (-310,000).

  • Construction added 110,000 jobs in March, following job losses in the previous month (-56,000) that were likely weather-related. Employment growth in the industry was widespread in March, with gains of 65,000 in specialty trade contractors, 27,000 in heavy and  civil engineering construction, and 18,000 in construction of buildings. Employment in construction is 182,000 below its February 2020 level.

  • Employment in professional and business services rose by 66,000 over the month. In March, employment in administrative and support services continued to trend up (+37,000), although employment in its temporary help services component was essentially unchanged. Employment also continued on an upward trend in management and technical consulting services (+8,000) and in computer systems design and related services (+6,000).

  • Manufacturing employment rose by 53,000 in March, with job gains occurring in both durable goods (+30,000) and nondurable goods (+23,000). Employment in manufacturing is down by 515,000 since February 2020.

  • Transportation and warehousing added 48,000 jobs in March. Employment increased in couriers and messengers (+17,000), transit and ground passenger transportation (+13,000), support activities for transportation (+6,000), and air transportation (+6,000). Since February 2020, employment in couriers and messengers is up by 206,000 (or 23.3 percent), while employment is down by 112,000 (or 22.8 percent) in transit and ground passenger transportation and by 104,000 (or 20.1 percent) in air transportation.

  • Employment in the other services industry increased by 42,000 over the month, reflecting job gains in personal and laundry services (+19,000) and in repair and maintenance (+18,000). Employment in other services is down by 396,000 since February 2020.

  • Social assistance added 25,000 jobs in March, mostly in individual and family services (+20,000). Employment in social assistance is 306,000 lower than in February 2020.

  • Employment in wholesale trade increased by 24,000 in March, with job gains in both durable goods (+14,000) and nondurable goods (+10,000). Employment in wholesale trade is 234,000 lower than in February 2020.

  • Retail trade added 23,000 jobs in March. Job growth in clothing and clothing accessories stores (+16,000), motor vehicle and parts dealers (+13,000), and furniture and home furnishing stores (+6,000) was partially offset by losses in building material and garden supply stores (-9,000) and general merchandise stores (-7,000). Employment in retail trade is 381,000 below its February 2020 level.

  • Employment in mining rose by 21,000 in March, in support activities for mining (+19,000). Mining employment is down by 130,000 since a peak in January 2019.

  • Financial activities added 16,000 jobs in March. Job gains in insurance carriers and related activities (+11,000) and real estate (+10,000) more than offset losses in credit intermediation and related activities (-7,000). Financial activities has 87,000 fewer jobs than in February 2020.

It’s hardly a surprise that with the US reopening, the one industry seeing the biggest hiring remains leisure and hospitality where jobs rose by 280,000, as pandemic-related restrictions eased in many parts of the country, with nearly two-thirds of the increase in “food services and drinking places”, i.e., waiters and bartenders, which added +176,000 jobs in March.

And another notable change was in the total number of government workers, which surged by 136K in March, reversing the 90K drop in February, as a result of 49.6K state education workers and 76K local government education workers added thanks to the reopening of schools around the country.

Here is a visual breakdown of all the March job changes:

Finally, courtesy of Bloomberg, below are the industries with the highest and lowest rates of employment growth for the most recent month.

end

b)MARKET TRADING/USA//THIS AFTERNOON

The Tom Stolper effect:  you do the exactly opposite to what Goldman Sachs states publicly what to do. We want everyone to get out of the dollar short.  As soon as this was announced, the dollar tumbles!

(zerohedge)

Dollar Tumbles After Goldman Closes Short USD Reco

 
MONDAY, APR 05, 2021 – 12:05 PM

It may not be quite a “Thomas Stolper reco“, but the dollar reaction to Goldman’s announcement on Friday to close its long-running dollar short is certainly one that brings back a few memories of the infamous Kermit photo.

In a Friday note from Goldman’s Zach Pandl titled aptly “Tactical Retreat“, the bank’s chief FX strategist said that “after a choppy few months we are closing our recommended USD short trade, expressed vs a basket of G10 commodity currencies (AUD, CAD, NOK, & NZD).” While we doubt Goldman’s trade reco was the catalyst, the Bloomberg dollar index has tumbled in kneejerk response, sliding to a two week low as US stocks soared on Monday, one day after the blockbuster payrolls report.

To be fair, it’s not just Goldman. AS we noted two week ago, with most of the market short the dollar – which was one of the biggest consensus trades entering 2021 – there has been a big squeeze in net USD futures positioning, which went so far as to send hedge funds long the dollar for the first time since last July in what was the biggest dollar squeeze since 2014.

As Bloomberg further notes, Goldman “joins hedge funds and other investors in capitulating on bearish dollar bets after surging Treasury yields triggered a rebound in the U.S. currency, capsizing one of the world’s most crowded macro trades.”

What was a near-consensus call at the end of last year has come undone as improving economic data and an 80 basis point surge in 10-year Treasury yields boosted the dollar’s appeal relative to peers. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index has jumped nearly 3% this year.

If anything, Goldman’s capitulation shows how much more powerful technicals and positioning are in this market compared to such anachronistic trivia as fundamentals.

“Although we still expect these currencies to appreciate vs the Dollar over the coming quarters, firm US growth and rising bond yields may keep the greenback supported over the short-term.”

Goldman’s short cover puts an end to a trade reco first initiated by Goldman back on October 9, when it first urged clients to short the dollar against two baskets of developed and emerging currencies. Since then the dollar gauge has fallen about 1%.

As we said, not quite a Stolper – there was a tiny profit – but in retrospect, was all the headache and opportunity cost worth a whopping 1% return over 6 months?

That said, Goldman isn’t done and says that there may be more opportunities to short the dollar beyond the next few weeks as traders position for “the likely recovery in European activity” as the continent’s pandemic situation improves:

Vaccinations are set to accelerate significantly in April and May, and past experience suggests current lockdowns will lower covid case numbers relatively soon. Accelerating European growth should help unwind some of the divergence with the US priced into domestic yield curves, as well as support commodity prices and risky assets generally. Therefore, despite the recent pullback, we are keeping our 3m and 12m EUR/USD forecasts unchanged at 1.21 and 1.28, respectively.

As a result, “clear evidence that Europe’s covid situation is getting under control would likely warrant fresh USD short recommendations.”

Translation: the dollar will likely continue to sell off until Goldman decides to turn short again.

 

ii)Market data/USA

“The Biggest Concern Is Stagflation” – Factory Orders Tumble As Services Surveys Signal Soaring Inflation

 
MONDAY, APR 05, 2021 – 10:10 AM

Echoing the Manufacturing surveys’ main theme, US Services sector surveys from Markit and ISM show input costs are exploding higher.

Despite weakness in ‘hard’ macro data, Markit’s Services survey surged ahead to its highest since July 2014 ( up from 59.8 to 60.4) with new order growth at six-year highs. PMI’s Services survey exploded higher to 63.7 (vs 59.0 exp) – a record high…

Source: Bloomberg

Comparing all the surveys

  • Markit US Manufacturing rose from 58.6 to 59.1

  • Markit US Services rose from 59.8 to 60.4

  • ISM US Manufacturing surged from 60.8 to 64.7

  • ISM US Services exploded from 55.3 to 63.7 – a record high

Source: Bloomberg

All seven broad categories monitored by the US Sector PMI series registered an increase in output during March and a similar pattern was seen for incoming new work.

Employment growth continued in six of the seven categories, with consumer services the only exception. Meanwhile, strong cost pressures persisted in March, led by a survey-record rise in input prices across the basic materials category.

On the price front, input costs soared in March.

The rate of inflation accelerated to the fastest since data collection for the services survey began in October 2009. Anecdotal evidence widely linked the uptick in costs to higher prices for key inputs such as PPE, paper, plastics, fuel and transportation. Subsequently, firms sought to pass on higher costs to clients through a sharper rise in selling prices. A number of companies also stated that stronger client demand allowed a greater proportion of the hike in costs to be passed through. The resulting rate of charge inflation was the quickest on record.

So what is up and what is down in price?

Commodities Up in Price

Chemicals; Construction Materials; Construction Services; Copper Products (2); Diesel (4); Electrical Components (2); Exam Gloves (6); Food & Beverage; Freight (4); Fuel (3); Gasoline (4); Gasoline-Related Products; Labor (4); Labor — Construction; Labor — Temporary (3); Lumber (3); Oriented Strand Board (OSB) (4); Packaging Materials; Paint-Related Products; Poly Products; Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) Products (7); Resin Products (3); Steel (7); Steel Conduit; Steel Products (3); Steel — Rolled; Trucking Services; and Wood Products (2).

Commodities Down in Price

Personal Protective Equipment (PPE)

ISM’s measure of new orders increased in March to a record 67.2 from 51.9 a month earlier.

The gauge of business activity, which parallels the ISM factory production gauge, jumped to 69.4, also the highest in data to 1997, from a February reading of 55.5.

Services’ Delivery times also lengthened slightly. The group’s manufacturing report last week showed a supplier deliveries index at an almost 47-year high.

Commenting on the latest survey results, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, said:

The recent surge in service sector growth shows no sign of abating, with another impressive performance in March rounding off a quarter in which the PMI surveys indicate that the economy grew at an annualized rate of approximately 5%.

“While consumer demand is rising especially strongly for goods, the surveys are now also showing rising activity in the consumer services sector, linked to the vaccine roll-out, looser virus containment measures and the fresh injection of stimulus in March. Financial services growth is also booming, in part reflecting buoyant housing and equity markets, and business spending on services is likewise picking up as firms look ahead to better times, resulting in a very broad-based and powerful looking upturn in the economy.

High levels of new business inflows, rising business confidence and an increasing appetite to hire new staff suggest the economy will also see a strong second quarter, especially if the vaccine roll-out continues apace.

The biggest concern is inflation, with price gauges hitting new survey highs in March as demand often exceeded supply for a wide variety of goods and services.”

“Concern” is right – but the big threat is stagflation as while prices are exploding higher (prices paid for materials jumped to 74, the highest since July 2008, from 71.8 a month earlier)…

Source: Bloomberg

Real manufacturing – factory orders – are tumbling…

Source: Bloomberg

Get back to work Mr.Powell! Overheating?

Perhaps that’s why the market is pricing in an accelerated timeline for The Fed to hike rate and keep hiking…

Source: Bloomberg

 

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

ARCHEGOS
 
The real study on the collapse of Archegos and how these guys built up a 100 billion portfolio on a investment of 10 billion and how this rehypothecated over leverage operation blew up
(zerohedge)

Rehypothecated Leverage: How Archegos Built A $100 Billion Portfolio Out Of Thin Air… And Then Blew Up

 
THURSDAY, APR 01, 2021 – 06:13 PM

One week after the biggest, and most spectacular hedge fund collapse since LTCM, we now have an (almost) clear picture of how Bill Hwang’s Archegos family office managed to single-handedly make a boring media stock the best performing company of 2021, but then when its luck suddenly ended it was margin called into extinction, leading to billions in losses for the banks that enabled what Bloomberg has dubbed its “leveraged blowout.”

Thanks to detailed reports by the Financial Times and Bloomberg, we now have the missing pieces to complete the picture of the biggest hedge fund implosion of the 21st century.

As a reminder, and as we previously discussed, we already knew how Archegos was building up stakes in its various holdings: unlike most other investors the fund never actually owned the underlying stock or even calls on the stock, but rather transacted by purchasing equity swaps known as Total Return Swaps (TRS) or Certificates For Difference (CFD). Similar to Credit Default Swaps, TRS exposed Archegos to the daily variation margin on the underlying stock, and as such while the fund would benefit economically from increases in the underlying stock price (and, inversely, would be hit by price drops forcing it to put up more cash as margin any day the stock price dropped) it would never be the actual owner of record of the underlying stock. Instead, the stock that Archegos was long would be “owned” by its prime broker, the same entity that allowed it to enter into TRS in the first place. As such Archegos also never had any disclosure requirements, allowing it to transact completely in the dark while being fully compliant with SEC disclosure requirements – since it didn’t own the underlying stock, Archegos did not have to disclose it. Simple and brilliant.

This part is important because the lack of a documented trail of ownership to Archegos is what enabled the entire Ponzi bezzle… and the staggering leverage the fund applied to its portfolio. Furthermore, well aware that there was almost no way to verify just how much of a given stock he owned, Hwang proceeded to have nearly identical positions with not one, not two but at least eight prime brokers (the final number is still being determined as more and more come out of the woodwork).

Not that Archegos prime brokers were completely clueless as to what was going on.

As Bloomberg reports, while much of the investing world watched in stunned silence how an “old media” company – ViacomCBS – shot up almost 300% in weeks, becoming the best performing stock in the S&P500 and prompting investors to speculate that the stock was was either undervalued, or like GameStop, or a takeover target, a handful of execs at Wall Street’s top trading firms were aware of what was behind the move: it was Archegos Capital Management, who was building a massive position in ViacomCBS and a handful of other stocks… using leverage the same banks so generously offered with stock which the banks themselves technically owned!

But while banks around the world – from Goldman, Morgan Stanley and Wells in the US, to Credit Susse, UBS and Deutsche Bank in Europe, to Nomura and Mitsubishi UFJ in Japan – kept giving Hwang the leverage he needed to acquire more and more of the stock, until he became the biggest economic if not registered owner of Viacom, what they did not know – thanks to the was Total Return Swaps are structured – was the full extent of his wagers. Which were massive: he stealthily amassed $10 billion of Viacom.

Viacom was just one of many: using even more TRS and even more leverage across even more Prime Brokers, Archegos was able to place colossal wagers while avoiding the disclosures required of most investors. And so “almost invisibly” Hwang accumulated a portfolio which according to Bloomberg sources was as much as $100 billion!

Eventually, Archegos built positions in at least nine stocks that were big enough to rank him among the largest holders, fueled by a level of bank leverage that would have been unusual even for a hedge fund.

While we previously discussed the leverage aspect of Archegos strategy, here it is again: with Bill Hwuang managing approximately $10BN in assets under management, the multiple Total Return Swaps with unwitting prime brokers allowed the fund to build up a staggering $100 billion in positions, implying a huge 10x leverage. This is the kind of leverage one associated with the likes of financial titans like Citadel and Millennium, not a smallish family office which has zero downside protection (as we would eventually learn).

What is amazing about this unilateral Ponzi scheme is that it relied on what we have dubbed rehypothecated leverage: the fund never even owned the underlying stock which was layered with billions in generous Prime Broker debt, but it was Archegos’ Prime Brokers who not only would own the actual stock but would also allow Hwang to add tens of billions in leverage… on an asset that they owned!

What is also remarkable is that Archegos’ ponzi scheme could have continued indefinitely if only Viacom stock had i) continue to rise or ii) avoided a crash. After all, having ignited the initial upward moment, Archegos had effectively forced benchmark-tracking investors, exchange-traded funds, CTAs and other momentum investors to buy as well.

Sadly for Hwang (and his Primer Brokers) the upward momentum ended with a bang last Monday, when with its shares trading at $100, Viacom announced a $3BN stock sale, which hammered the stock, followed by a round of analyst downgrades, which sent the stock tumbling. It was at this point that Archegos was now facing tens of billions in margin calls on its VIACA Total Return Swaps from its Prime Brokers.

And therein lies the rub, because when the time came to unwind the Archegos Ponzi, the Prime Brokers’ counterparty was not Archegos but other Prime Brokers. This is what led to the infamous meeting late last Thursday, where a bunch of PBs tried to reach an amicable resolution ahead of Friday’s bloodbath. As Bloomberg adds, at several points during those exchanges, bankers implored Hwang to buy himself breathing room by selling some stocks and raising cash to post collateral. But “he wouldn’t budge.”

As a result, Morgan Stanley and Goldman promptly started dumping blocks of stock backing Archegos TRS in the open market. In doing so they started a margin call liquidation, in which those who sold first – like Goldman, Morgan Stanley and Deutsche – would avoid massive losses, while those who waited like Nomura and Credit Suisse… would not. Indeed, we already knew that Nomura, Japan’s largest investment bank, said its losses could hit $2Bn, while losses at Credit Suisse could be as large as $4Bn according to the FT.

At this point, many questions popped up, especially (and belatedly) inside the banks themselves: as the FT reports, executives within the prime brokerage divisions of at least two banks “are being quizzed by risk managers over why they offered a business as small as Archegos tens of billions of dollars of leverage on trades in volatile equities through swaps contracts,.”

As the FT further notes, echoing what we said above, while prime brokerage clients typically provide few details about their other trading activities, “executives from at least two of the six banks are investigating whether Hwang deliberately misled them or withheld vital information about mirror positions he had built up at rival banks, according to people involved in the probes.”

Well, no: Archegos did not mislead anyone. He simply used (and abused) a system where – as we put it – one investor can create as much rehypothecated leverage as the investors’ banks and Prime Brokers will allow him. In this case we know the number may have been as high as a mindblowing $90 billion.

Naturally, had the banks known that in a worst case scenario they would be facing other banks – since such replicated, or rather rehypothecated position would magnify the risks on each of the trades making a bank less likely to extend so much credit against them  – none of this would have been possible. However, as long as everything was going up, and all of Archegos positions were pleasasntly surging nobody seemed to care… or bother to calculate just how big the downside risk was (one can thank the Fed Put for that).

One final remarkable aspect of this whole story is that this is not Hwang’s first crisis. In 2012 he submitted a guilty plea on behalf of his hedge fund to a charge of wire fraud, and he resolved related civil claims of insider trading without admitting or denying wrongdoing. Archegos is the family office he formed after winding down that firm, Tiger Asia Management.

However, as if nothing had ever happened, prime brokerages immediately began lining up to help the new business. Morgan Stanley was among his early backers. Deutsche Bank signed him as a client at the urging of at least one senior executive, according to Bloomberg, “who was unperturbed by the insider-trading taint and didn’t believe Hwang had done anything wrong, according to a person familiar with that decision.” Ironically, just a few years later, Hwang did something wrong and it would prove to be the biggest hedge fund collapse in post-LTCM history.

Not every bank acted like an idiot: one firm resisted the lure. Archegos approached JPMorgan sometime between 2016 and 2018 and was rebuffed, according to the Bloomberg report. At the time, JPMorgan was still revamping the equity prime-brokerage unit it had acquired with Bear Stearns during the 2008 financial crisis. “Dumb luck or not, the bank dodged a bullet.”

* * *

The rest of the story is mostly known, so now what.

Well, as we first hinted and as Bloomberg reports, already regulators are dropping hints of new rules to come, with SEC officials signaling to banks that they intend to make trading disclosures from hedge funds a higher priority, while also finding ways to address risk and leverage.

Senior finance executives acknowledge that a crackdown of some form, whether on borrowing or transparency or both, is inevitable.

Amusingly, and picking up on the FT’s reporting, Bloomberg also notes that while some of those firms have disclosed the financial impact of their roles in the Archegos collapse, none is willing to comment on how or why they enabled Hwang to become such a force in the market. After all what can they say: “the other guys vetted him, so we assumed he was clean”…

There are also questions whether Hwang’s counterparties knew about his relationships with other banks and the scale of the leverage he was using for what appear to be concentrated positions in a handful of companies. And – more ominously – if they did not know anything about his exposure, why the hell not?  As we reported on Tuesday, JPMorgan (which successfully managed to avoid this scandal completely) estimated that the Prime Brokers facing Archegos may end up absorbing as much as $10 billion in combined losses.

Already credit rating agencies have downgraded outlooks for Credit Suisse and Nomura, citing concerns over “the quality of risk management” while activist investors are demanding better governance and would not mind if senior execs were summarily fired over this episode to restore confidence.

“Risk controls still are not where they should be,” David Herro, one of Credit Suisse’s biggest shareholders, said Wednesday in a Bloomberg TV interview. “Hopefully, this is a wake-up call to expedite the cultural change that is needed in this company.”

But going back to Bloomberg’s original point, for all their silence the prime-brokerage units of Nomura, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Credit Suisse and others, had clues about what Archegos was doing. These firms knew about the trades they had financed, of course, and also had some visibility into his total borrowings. And yet they didn’t bother to ask about what, if any, risk management was being implemented to avoid an uncontrolled unwind. Or rather, the questions emerged only after the margin call.

What the Prime Brokers also didn’t know is that Hwang was taking parallel positions at multiple firms, piling more leverage onto the same few stocks, which brings us back to our rehypothecated leverage concept which we are confident we will use much more in the coming months, especially since “unwinding a series of large, leveraged bets placed by a single account is one thing; doing so when rival banks are liquidating the same positions held by the same client is quite another.”

Archegos’ own “Lehman moment” came late on March 25 when Hwang’s prime brokers met again and discussed the possibility of standing down temporarily to let tensions ease, as we reported previously, but any attempt at solidarity proved short-lived: shortly after some PBs sent Archegos notices of default, clearing the way for Goldman and Morgan Stanley to dump Hwang’s positions.

“Hopefully this will cause the prime brokerages of regulated banking organizations (and their supervisors) to re-assess their relationships with highly leveraged hedge funds,” former FDIC chair Sheila Bair tweeted.

She is, of course, wrong.

In fact, if anything we expect Prime Brokers will make leverage even easier to obtain for non-bank, hedge fund and family office clients, because the one big mistake Archegos (and its Prime Brokers) made was that it was not big and systemic enough to merit a Fed bailout. Now, if Archegos had a portfolio of $200 billion, $300 billion or more, while using Citadel’s 50x leveragenow we’re talking “size”…  size enough for the Fed to step in and make everyone whole on the back of taxpayers… the same way the Fed bailed out Citadel, Millennium and Point72 in September 2019 during the repo crisis (as both Zero Hedge and subsequently Bloomberg, explained).

There is another reason nothing will change: hedge funds, Prime Brokers, banks – in fact the Fed itself – are all incentivized to not look at what skeletons may be found in the closet. Why? Because if the banks are forced to admit that there are more Archegos funds – and there are countless – Prime Brokers will have no choice but to sequester collateral from more clients, sparking more margin calls, leading to more stock liquidations, and resulting in even bigger investor panic. Call it a side effect of building castles on crooked foundations in an artificial, fake, Fed-supported market.

Is another market panic what the Fed wants? Or what the Biden admin wants? Of course not.

Which is why we will get a token Congressional hearing where politicians care more to hear themselves talk than listen to the answers, the banks will slap a few hands, one or two small sacrificial hedge funds will be shut down, and the world will move on, especially once Archegos is no longer on the front page of the financial media.

It’s also why when the next major hedge fund implosion does happen, it will be far more catastrophic.

END
ARCHEGOS
The following is a must read:  Luongo explains how Archegos is really a Chinese family operation. He is probably correct:  Hwang increases the operations value from 10 billion dollars to 100 billion dollars on leverage but does not hedge? China is sending a signal not to use the USA dollar as a weapon against China and emergin nations
(Tom Luongo)

Archegos Bikini Atolls: How Many More Tactical Financial Nuclear Bombs Exist?

 
SATURDAY, APR 03, 2021 – 06:30 PM

Authored by Tom Luongo via Gold, Goats, ‘n Guns blog,

Do you remember the end of Dr. Strangelove? When the Russian ambassador reveals the existence of the Doomsday device Strangelove makes the point that such weapons only have deterrent power if everyone knows about them.

Secret weapons have no ability to deter cataclysmic violence.

The reply from the Russian ambassador is one for the ages, “It was to be announced at the Party Congress on Monday.”

Remember this when we consider the curious question of the demise of Archegos Capital.

Because sometimes I watch something unfold and I have zero opinion on it whatsoever.  The Suez blockage was one of them.  I had to will myself to care beyond the obvious, “this is bad” reaction. The more I think about it, however, the more significant it becomes (more on that in future posts).

On the other hand, the minute I read a single article about the vaporization of Archegos capital on Monday morning I smelled a rat, or least something vaguely rat-like.  And what immediately popped into my head was this thing is important, but not for the reasons anyone will admit to on CNBC or in the financial press.

In fact, they would go out of their way to demonize Bill Hwang, the head of Archegos, who ‘acted irresponsibly,’ ‘ran a scam,’ et cetera while everyone goes into cover thine own ass mode.

The first thing that stuck out at me was who got hit.  Credit Suisse, Morgan Stanley, Nomura.  Today we can add Goldman-Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, UBS, Deutsche Bank in Europe, to Nomura and Mitsubishi Financial Group. There may even be others.

All Western Institutions. Clue #1

Zerohedge has done impeccable work helping us to understand this story. Today’s article puts the whole thing together (which I heartily recommend you read from top to bottom… twice). The background is in this graf:

As a reminder, and as we previously discussed, we already knew how Archegos was building up stakes in its various holdings: unlike most other investors, the fund never actually owned the underlying stock or even calls on the stock, but rather transacted by purchasing equity swaps known as Total Return Swaps (TRS) or Certificates For Difference (CFD). Similar to Credit Default Swaps, TRS exposed Archegos to the daily variation margin on the underlying stock, and as such while the fund would benefit economically from increases in the underlying stock price (and, inversely, would be hit by price drops forcing it to put up more cash as margin any day the stock price dropped) it would never be the actual owner of record of the underlying stock. Instead, the stock that Archegos was long would be “owned” by its prime broker, the same entity that allowed it to enter into TRS in the first place. As such Archegos also never had any disclosure requirements, allowing it to transact completely in the dark while being fully compliant with SEC disclosure requirements – since it didn’t own the underlying stock, Archegos did not have to disclose it. Simple and brilliant.

The next thing that came out of this article that didn’t shock me in the very least is that Hwang refused to purchase any downside protection for his $100 billion Ponzi Scheme of leveraged credit lines. Clue #2

As Bloomberg adds, at several points during those exchanges, bankers implored Hwang to buy himself breathing room by selling some stocks and raising cash to post collateral. But “he wouldn’t budge.” [emphasis mine]

Now let’s get into what actually happened here.

Archegos is a Chinese family office.  The Biden administration is rapidly descending into anti-diplomatic relations with Russia, China and Iran.  Every possible provocation of the Chinese nd the Russians you can think of is happening.  On March 24th, Ukraine quietly declared war on Russia by making it Ukrainian security policy to retake Crimea (H/T to Mike Snyder at Economic Collapse Blog for finding this little goodie).

Earlier this week we have the Ambassador from the U.S. call Taiwan ‘a country’ in the worse kind of calculated offense and escalation you can think of.

So I have to ask the question, “If you were the Chinese and you were now in a hybrid war with the U.S. how would you send a message back across the Pacific?”

This state of hybrid war, in effect a proxy for a direct military World War III began with the coup in Ukraine in 2014, and has been escalating for years. The entire Trump administration was one big hybrid war exercise of asymmetric attacks on each others’ capital markets and internal domestic policies — sanctions, counter-sanctions, tariffs, currency manipulations, etc.

Would you send warships some place or would you attack our credit markets?

Or more importantly would you plant literal financial tac nukes across multiple sectors of the financial world to combat any big push from the U.S. and Europe to foment a financial crisis on the eve of a conflict going kinetic?

When we go back over the past few weeks of FOMC statements and assess the placidity of the Fed in the face of one of the biggest quarterly moves up in long-term interest rates in U.S. history we have to ask these questions.

The dollar has been rising since the beginning of the year. Russia and China have been accumulating gold like mad to protect themselves from this which has been under sincere attack since last August’s flirtation with $2100 per ounce.

Gold’s Q1 performance was abysmal.

I’ve said before I thought this approach from the Fed was deliberate despite the markets screaming for it to do something. And when all the Fed does to change policy in March is to open up the limits banks can use to access the repo window (from $30B to $80B) while this is happening, again, I ask the question, what are they preparing for?

So, if I’m China and I’m reading the tea leaves coming from the lack of diplomatic skill, if not intentionally amateurish behavior from the Biden administration, what would I do?

How hard is it to think that there aren’t 20 or 30 family offices, unregulated and opaquely trading in CFDs and TRSs, out there with positions just like Archegos’ ready to go off if the Fed continues to allow a rising dollar and rising long-term rates.

The biggest useable weapon the U.S. has is monetary policy.  If you want to blow up China’s rising economy right now you have to allow the dollar to rise, liquidity to drop and induce panic all throughout emerging and frontier markets many of whom are now allies of Russia and China, think Turkey for example.

If you were China how would you defend against that?  By creating asymmetric time bombs that blow back on western capital markets the second the dollar begins to drain overseas liquidity.

To quote Zerohedge, “Simple and brilliant.”

In any prelude to kinetic war there is always a financial war that precedes it.  First give the world excessive amounts of easy money and allow overseas export markets to overlever to supply U.S. consumption markets, then pull the punch bowl away and watch the cheap dollars become albatrosses around their necks.

Welcome to Russia and SE Asia in 1997-99, Turkey in 2018, etc.

There’s been a massive correction in Chinese large caps since the dollar began strengthening in January.  As the Dow Jones Industrials climb higher, the MSCI A50 China Large Cap Index has given back nearly 40% of its gains since last March.

If I’m China, I allow Archegos to go poof and then watch the plumbing of the financial West clog up like the Suez was last week.

This is how you play the real game. And I would be shocked if this is the only family office nuclear time bomb out there.  

Look at the stocks they bought and targeted… Viacom, Discover, Tencent Music, Baidu, etc.  

Remember the first rule of derivatives trading: notional becomes net when the other guy can’t pay. It’s why these prime brokers were running around all weekend selling off major blocks of stock at steep discounts to avoid a deeper panic while assuring us that all is well.

In order to really play this game you have to think a couple of moves ahead.

I’m sure that Morgan Stanley, Credit Suisse and the others all thought they had these derivatives owned by Archegos properly hedged, but only if Archegos paid up. They never expected to be on the wrong side of the trade.  

What if these were intentionally poison pills? The goal being to take the positions, allow market conditions to blow them up never intending to raise the capital to pay but rather leave the prime brokers of your enemy up the creek?

Because Hwang would never have gotten that kind of credit to play with to make this kind of ‘rookie mistake.’ This wasn’t incompetence on his part. Why else would he steadfastly refuse to buy himself some downside protection?

$10 billion seems a small price to pay to send that kind of message on behalf of the Chinese government.

Zerohedge is again right when it reminds us thatthe most likely response by the U.S. here is nothing, because to do so would invite real scrutiny as to how many of these tactical nuclear financial bombs exist and how much panic that knowledge would induce.

Which, when you think of it that way, was exactly the point of the lesson Archegos just taught everyone. The Party Congress on Monday announced this to the world.

Boom.

*  *  *

end

Texas cases plunge after the mask mandate is lifted and restaurants are back to pre crisis levels. 
(zerohedge)

Texas COVID-Positivity-Rate Plunges To Record Low After Mask-Mandate Lifted, Restaurants Back To Pre-Crisis Levels

 
THURSDAY, APR 01, 2021 – 09:20 PM

According to the relentless pro-mask propaganda, this wasn’t supposed to happen.

For the better part of the past year, the US public was bombarded with “science” how only the wearing of a mask (or two masks, or three masks or more) was the only thing that stood between the Western way of life and Armageddon (despite the periodic emergence of cold, hard data showing no improvement in covid transmission in states that mandated masks vs those that did not, at least until Twitter decided to ban it). Then, one month ago, Texas had had enough and its governor shocked the Faucis of the world – and the White House – when he declared that the mask mandate in the state was officially over.

What happened then?

Well, in a development that would likely shock Dr. Fauci, newly confirmed Coronavirus cases in Texas plunged to their lowest since June, roughly three weeks after the state lifted its mask mandate and reopened businesses.

Additionally, the 7-day Covid positivity rate dropped to a new recorded low: 4.95%…

Source

Texas Governor Greg Abbott wrote in a tweet over the weekend. “Everyone now qualifies for a shot. They are highly recommended to prevent getting Covid but always voluntary.”

The 4.95 percent test positivity rate is the lowest the state has seen since the start of the pandemic. According to the Texas Department of State Health Services, some 1,900 new virus cases were reported on Sunday, which is the lowest daily number the state has seen since early June.

Data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention showed that the seven-day moving average number of cases in Texas dropped to the lowest level since mid-June. According to the CDC, Texas was averaging 3,783 daily cases as of March 27.

Abbott’s tweet also noted that hospitalizations dropped to their lowest number in the past six months. According to data from the Texas Department of State Health Services (DSHS), 3,104 COVID-19 patients were in hospitals across the state as of Saturday. Data shows that the state has not recorded a number this low since September 19, when there were 3,081 hospitalizations. As of Monday, Texas has reported more than 2.3 million confirmed coronavirus cases and at least 47,156 deaths.

In an updated tweet from Wednesday, Abbott noted that Covid hospitalizations dropped to a new 6 month low, with the 7-day Covid positivity rate remaining below 6% for the 9th day in a row.

The drop in virus cases, hospitalizations and the testing positivity rate comes three weeks after the state officially lifted its pandemic restrictions, including a statewide mask mandate.

Abbott first announced the removal of most COVID-19 restrictions on March 2, when he tweeted that “Texas is OPEN 100%.”

“I also ended the statewide mask mandate,” Abbott wrote in the tweet. His executive order reopening the state went into effect March 10.

Separately, in a note from Goldman, the bank found that in Texas dining activity is now back above pre-crisis norms. The bank goes on to note that “while this may increase public health risks in coming months, it also suggests scope for a more rapid normalization in business activity in the interim.” Another way of saying this: small business are rejoicing having had the oppressive boot of government interference lifted from their daily lives.

Meanwhile, as Newsweek notes, Mississippi also removed its COVID-19 restrictions around the same time. Like Texas, Mississippi has seen a drop in virus cases and hospitalizations. According to CDC data, as of Saturday Mississippi was seeing an average of 254 daily cases, which is a decrease from the previous month, where the state was averaging around 520.

According to the state’s health department, Mississippi also saw a drop in COVID-19 hospitalizations, reporting 238 hospitalized patients with confirmed infections this past Friday, which is the lowest the state has seen since May.

Before the decreases in cases and hospitalizations in Texas and Mississippi, the two states received daily criticism for their coronavirus policies, including from Joe Biden’s teleprompter. Shortly after both states said they were lifting their COVID-19 restrictions, Biden said, “The last thing we need is Neanderthal thinking, that, in the meantime, everything’s fine, take off your mask, forget it. It still matters.”

It appears that the Neanderthals were right, after all.

END

INFLATION

running rampant

(MishShedlock/Mishtalk)

Hooray! The Price Of Toilet Paper Is Going Up Again, Are You Cheering Too

 
THURSDAY, APR 01, 2021 – 07:40 PM

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,

The Fed is rooting for more inflation. It’s coming and the Fed is cheering.

1000 Sheets Will Now Cost More

Huggies maker Kimberly-Clark announced price hikes, joining General Mills, Hormel and others in passing along added costs.

The Fed is undoubtedly pleased that Higher Commodity Costs are Now Passed on to Shoppers

Makers of everything from diapers to cereal are starting to feel the strain of higher commodity prices, and some are passing the added cost along to consumers.

Kimberly-Clark Corp. (KMB) said Wednesday it plans to raise selling prices across much of its North America consumer-products business to help counter rising raw-material costs.

Kimberly-Clark said its increases, which will be implemented almost entirely through changes in list prices, are needed to help offset significant commodity cost inflation.

Price Hikes 

  • The maker of Huggies diapers and Scott paper products said the percentage increases would be in the mid- to high-single digits and take effect in late June. They will apply to the company’s baby- and child-care, adult-care and Scott bathroom-tissue businesses.

  • Cheerios maker General Mills Inc. (GIS) said it will raise prices to partly offset higher freight and manufacturing costs, in addition to rising commodity prices. “Our competitors and retailers are facing the same thing we are,” General Mills Chief Executive Jeff Harmening said.

  • Hormel Foods Corp. (HRL)said in February it raised prices of its turkey products, such as Jennie-O ground turkey, to counter sharply higher grain costs. If the rally in the commodity markets were to continue, the company would likely pass along further increases, Chief Executive Jim Snee said. Hormel also raised prices of its Skippy peanut butter.

  • J.M. Smucker Co. (SJM)  said it recently raised prices for its Jif peanut butter and that it might do the same with pet snacks because of higher shipping costs and other inflationary pressure. Smucker Chief Executive Mark Smucker said retailers are passing increases along to consumers. “We only raise prices when costs are meaningfully higher, and we partner with the retailers to make sure it’s justified and that we move together,” he said.

Hooray! Hooray! Hooray!

In addition to toilet paper, price hikes are slated for Huggies, Cheerios, peanut butter, and turkey.

No doubt, that’s just a start.

The Fed is very pleased that your dollar buys less than a month ago. Are you cheering  too?

Easy Money Quote of the Day: Fed “Won’t Take the Punch Bowl Away”

On March 25, I noted the Easy Money Quote of the Day: Fed “Won’t Take the Punch Bowl Away”

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly won the gold medal for easy money statements.  She said the central bank would show at least “a healthy dose” of patience. ”We are not going to take this punch bowl away,” said Daly.

She wants higher inflation as do four other Fed presidents I cited. 

Spotlight on the Fed

Fed Chair Jerome Powell wants to let inflation run hot to make for alleged lack of inflation in the past.  

In short, he is unhappy to have failed at destroying the purchasing power of your dollar fast enough.

He would not recognize inflation if it jumped off the table and spit grapefruit juice in his eyes.

As discussed previously, Inflation is Poised to Soar, 3% by June is “Almost Certain”

Historical Perspective on CPI Deflations

A BIS study of deflations shows the Fed’s fear of deflation is foolish.

Deflation may actually boost output. Lower prices increase real incomes and wealth. And they may also make export goods more competitive,” concluded the study.

For discussion, please see Historical Perspective on CPI Deflations: How Damaging are They?

Japan has tried what the Fed is doing now for over a decade, with no results.

Yet, Powell hell bent on producing more than 2% inflation until the strategy “works”.

It already has, using the word “works” rather loosely.

Home Prices Rise at Fastest Pace in 15 Years

Inflation is Rampant and Obvious 

Yesterday I commented Hello Fed, Inflation is Rampant and Obvious, Why Can’t You See It?

The national level average year-over-year increase in home prices is 11.2%.

Click on the above link for a series of 5 charts that explain what’s happening.

What Would I Do?

For the answer, please see Reader Question: What Would I do Differently Than the Fed?

end

USA officials warns mortgage firms that in the fall there is going to be a wave of defaults as forbearance programs lapse

(zerohedge)

Feds Warn Mortgage Firms: “Tidal Wave Of Distress” Coming As Forbearance Programs Set To Lapse 

 
SATURDAY, APR 03, 2021 – 05:00 PM

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) warned mortgage firms Thursday “to take all necessary steps now to prevent a wave of avoidable foreclosures this fall.” 

As of March 30, approximately 2.54 million homeowners remain in forbearance or about 4.8% of all mortgages, according to the latest data from Black Knight’s McDash Flash Forbearance Tracker.

CFPB said mortgage firms should “dedicate sufficient resources and staff now to ensure they are prepared for a surge in borrowers needing help.” To avoid what the agency called “avoidable foreclosures” when the forbearance relief lapses, mortgage servicers should begin contacting affected homeowners now to guide them on ways they can modify their loans.

“There is a tidal wave of distressed homeowners who will need help from their mortgage servicers in the coming months,” said CFPB Acting Director Dave Uejio. He said,

“There is no time to waste and no excuse for inaction. No one should be surprised by what is coming.” 

The Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act provided a safety net for borrowers with federally-backed mortgages who could access forbearance programs. With millions of borrowers in the program set to lapse in the second half of the year, unavoid foreclosure will occur despite the government trying everything under the sun to keep people in their homes.

“Our first priority is ensuring struggling families get the assistance they need. Servicers who put struggling families first have nothing to fear from our oversight, but we will hold accountable those who cause harm to homeowners and families,” Uejio said. 

With the CFPB focused on preventing avoidable foreclosures, the government’s forbearance programs ends in September, which could result in the quick unraveling of the social fabric for many households who may find themselves homeless

end
Cars are selling like hotcakes despite the shortages of semiconductors.
(zerohedge)

“Cars Are 2021’s Toilet Paper” – US Automakers Report Blowout First Quarter As EV Sales Soar

 
MONDAY, APR 05, 2021 – 06:30 AM

The major automakers look to finally be back. And this time around, they’re selling EVs, too.

What’s selling? “Everything,” said one Ford dealer.

“The only explanation that I can even muster is that cars are 2021’s version of toilet paper in 2020,” said Chad Wilson, general manager of Wilson Ford in Saginaw and Midland Ford.

“We are taking a lot of retail orders because we don’t have anything (in stock). Normally between our two stores, we’d have 150-180 F-series in stock. I think right now there might be 10. I do think there’s an element of fear of missing out.”

GM said its U.S. retail deliveries were up 19% in Q1, the company’s first number reported against pandemic-impacted comps. The automaker sold 642,250 vehicles in the U.S. in the first quarter of 2021, according to Bloomberg. While retail sales were up 19%, fleet sales were down 35%

The automaker said its truck and full size SUV plants are currently at full capacity and that it’s seeking to recover lost car and crossover production in the second half of 2021. 

GMalso said it was dealing with the semiconductor shortage by building some models without certain components, stating in its press release: “GM is building some vehicles without certain modules when necessary. They will be completed as soon as more semiconductors become available, which will help GM quickly meet strong expected customer demand during the year. GM also targets recovering lost car and crossover production where possible in the second half of the year.”

Toyotasold 603,066 vehicles in the quarter, a 22% rise from Q1 2020, according to IBD. Even more pronounced was the company’s numbers for March, which were up 87% against the first month of coronavirus lockdowns in 2020.

Volkswagenalso posted blowout comps, as sales rose 21% in Q1 to 90,853 vehicles sold. The company was helped along by robust SUV demand while also selling 474 units of its new ID.4, which only went on sale in the U.S. in late March. 

Fordsaw its sales rise 1% for the quarter, but sales were up 5% for trucks and 14% for SUVs. Even more notable, however, is the fact that Ford sold 6,613 Mustang Mach-E electric crossovers, up from just 3 sold in Q4. Ford said that “the fully electric Mustang Mach-E turning on dealer lots in just 7 days.”

Andrew Frick, vice president, Ford Sales U.S. and Canada, said: “Ford’s retail sales exceeded 2020 and 2019 sales levels. Our customers are really embracing our new electrified vehicle lineup. The all-new fully electric Mustang Mach-E and the F-150 PowerBoostHybrid lifted Ford’s overall electrified vehicle sales to a record start in the first quarter with sales up 74 percent over a year ago. Our all-new Bronco Sport posted record monthly sales in March and helped power Ford Brand SUVs to their best start in 20 years.”

Shoring up the supply chain has become crucial for all automakers heading into 2021. The auto industry, as a whole is rethinking its cost cutting measures in the midst of both the pandemic and the chip shortage, Reuters reported this week. Companies are stockpiling key commodities at higher inventory levels and using software to track the integrity of the supply chains that they order from. 

Richard Barnett, chief marketing officer of Supplyframe, which provides market intelligence to companies across the global electronics sectors, told Reuters: “The whole issue is exposing the brittleness, the fragility of the automotive supply chain. We’re trying to dual-source whenever possible critical components.”

Ford’s chief product platform and operations officer, Hau Thai-Tang, said: “If you’re down for 30 days at the F-150 plant, what’s the cost to the Ford Motor Co versus paying this insurance to stockpile these chips? That’s the way we would think through it.”

end

With 31% of the USA population having received at least one dose of the vaccine, USA airports are businest in more than a year on Good Friday.

(zerohedge)

US Airports Busiest In More Than Year On Good Friday 

 
MONDAY, APR 05, 2021 – 08:33 AM

Good Friday was one of the busiest days for US airports in 13 months, despite the rising threats of COVID-19 rates. With nearly 104.2 million people vaccinated, or 31% of the population received at least one dose, millions of Americans flooded airports over the holiday weekend to visit loved ones or simply go on vacation (something they haven’t done in over a year). 

The latest figures from the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) show airport security checkpoints screened 1,580,785 people at US airports on Friday, the highest amount of travelers screen since March 12, 2020. 

On Saturday, TSA spokesperson Lisa Farbstein tweeted

“TSA screened 1,580,785 people at airport checkpoints nationwide yesterday, Friday, April 2. It was the highest checkpoint throughput since March 12, 2020. So if you’re planning to travel you should get to the airport 90 minutes early, socially distance and wear a mask.” 

On Sunday, Farbstein also said: 

“TSA screened 1,397,958 people at airport checkpoints nationwide yesterday, Saturday, April 3. For perspective, one year ago, TSA screened 118,302 people. So we’re seeing something like an 800 percent increase from last year’s checkpoint throughput. Wear that mask!” 

Friday’s throughput was a 12x increase from the same time last year when the country was in lockdowns and air travel crashed. 

TSA data for the holiday weekend was partially available (only from April 2-3); nevertheless, it showed nearly three million people traveled between Friday and Saturday, significantly higher than the same period last year. 

Since February, the 7-day average of TSA airport security checkpoints screened has erupted as Covid vaccine doses administered reached nearly 3 million shots per day – pushing the total amount Americans to 104.2 million vaccinated, or 31% of the population received at least one dose. This has perhaps given many folks the courage to fly once more. Also, the rise in travel coincides when the Biden administration dished out another round of stimulus checks. 

“As a percentage of 2019, starting in mid-February, passengers departing from US airports have tentatively started to trend higher. TSA is currently screening 9.9mn passengers per week vs 15.9mn in 2019,” said data firm Exante Data

SKVentures’ Paul Kedrosky has yet to observe a “resurgence in businesses business travel, the new-new normal for US air travel could be lower and spikier, driven by holiday patterns.” 

iv) Swamp commentaries

Rand Paul faces off against Fauci after the CDC confirms that vaccinated and recovered patients cannot pass on the COVID. Not sure that vaccinated people cannot pass the virus

(Watson/SummitNews)

Rand Paul “Pages” Fauci With CDC Confirmation That Vaccinated And Recovered Cannot Pass On COVID

 
THURSDAY, APR 01, 2021 – 07:00 PM

Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,

Senator Rand Paul shared video Wednesday of CDC Director Rochelle Walensky announcing that new data suggests vaccinated and recovered people do not carry Covid-19.

Paul directed his comments at White House chief medical advisor Anthony Fauci, writing “paging Dr Fauci:  please end the mask theater now that cdc admits evidence that the vaccinated do not carry the virus.”

In a further post, Paul also shared a study examining T cell responses in people who have recovered from Covid-19.

“T cell immunity after natural infection shown to include variants,” Paul, who is also a physician, noted.

He again addressed Fauci, asking “Do we still need to wear multiple masks after we’ve recovered or been vaccinated?”

The Senator clashed with Fauci a fortnight ago, telling him “You’ve been vaccinated and you parade around in two masks for show. You can’t get it again.”

“There’s virtually zero percent chance you’re going to get it and you’re telling people that have had the vaccine who have immunity — You’re defying everything we know about immunity by telling people to wear masks who have been vaccinated,” Paul charged during the hearing.

Fauci has repeatedly flip flopped on the efficacy of masks, and has admitted that there is little science behind lockdown restrictions.

Nevertheless, Facui still will not drop the mask charade, even suggesting that the world needs to carry on wearing them into 2022, and that children should be wearing them in order to play together, until they are all vaccinated from the age of 6 months old.

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end

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories./ of the day

The King Report April 5, 2021 Issue 6481 Independent View of the News
The March Employment Report, released on Friday, shows +916k NFP.  660k was the final consensus but the Whisper Number was 800k.  Manufacturing increased 53k; 35k was consensus.  Wages fell 0.1% m/m: +0.1% was expected.  The Unemployment Rate fell to 6% from 6.2%.  The Labor Force Participation Rate remained at 61.5%.  The workweek increased 0.2 hours to 34.9.

 

The March jobs report is not as strong as the headline NFP number, or the media, suggests.  Leisure & Hospitality added 280k jobs; government added 136k jobs; education & health contributed 101k.
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.b.htm

BLS: Employment rose by 76,000 in local government education, by 50,000 in state government education, and by 64,000 in private education… Construction added 110,000 jobs… Employment in professional and business services rose by 66,000… Retail trade added 23,000 jobs…
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

Household Survey “employed” increased only 609k; “unemployed” declined only 262k; “not in the labor force” fell 263k.    https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.a.htm

Reflation Trade Gets a Boost from Jobs with Yields Edging Higher
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-02/reflation-trade-gets-a-boost-from-jobs-with-yields-edging-higher

The US 10-year yield hit 1.73% on Friday; ESMs closed +17.25; USMs declined 17.32.

Thursday’s King Report: Traders will play for a start of the month/quarter rally, emboldened by the cessation of warnings about billions of dollars of stock to sell at the end of Q1.  The S&P 500 Index closed at 3972.89.  Part of the late plunge yesterday was due to traders becoming concerned when the index peaked at 3994.41 and couldn’t proceed higher.  Traders always ‘shoot for the numbers’ (important technical or psychological levels) to provoke greater fools to get jiggy and take the shooters out of their positions.  Due to the coming holiday weekend, attendance will be diminished, and it will decline as the session progresses.  This means a determined few can manipulate stuff more easily.  Will operators be able to push the S&P 500 Index to 4000?  Will 4000 on the S&P 500 trigger buying or a reversal?

@disclosetv on Thursday: Russia warns new war in Ukraine’s east could end with the country being destroyed – Foreign Minister Lavrov

  • Ukraine convenes National Security and Defense council.
  • NATO’s North Atlantic Council held an urgent meeting today over Russian military movements at Ukraine’s border.

Russia Masses Troops, Armor on Ukraine’s Borders; Fears Mount of Wider War
US President Joe Biden and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy shared their first phone call on Friday… Russia’s military buildup caps a month of escalating violence along a roughly 250-mile-long, entrenched front line in Ukraine’s embattled Donbas region, where Ukrainian troops have been engaged in seven years of constant combat against a combined force of Russian regulars, pro-Russian separatists, and foreign mercenaries… Russia may engineer a false flag operation that baits Ukraine into taking military action that creates the pretext for Russian forces to invade…
    After invading and seizing the Ukrainian territory of Crimea in early 2014, Russia staged an irregular warfare invasion of Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region. Following two failed cease-fires, the war has devolved into a static, trench war stalemate…  https://coffeeordie.com/russia-troops-ukraine/

US Initial Jobless Claims jumped to 719k from 684k; 675k was expected.  Continuing Claims declined to 3.794m from 3.84m; 3.75m was expected.

Markit’s US Manufacturing PMI for March rose to 59.1 from 59; 59.1 was expected.

The ISM Manufacturing survey for March jumped to 64.7 from 60.8; 61.5 was expected.  Prices Paid fell a tad to 85.6 from 86; 85 was expected.  https://www.ismworld.org/globalassets/pub/research-and-surveys/rob/pmi/rob202104pmi.pdf

U.S. Manufacturing Surges Most Since 1983, Underscoring Rebound
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-01/growth-at-u-s-manufacturers-is-strongest-in-more-than-37-years

US Construction Spending declined 0.8% m/m in February; -1.0% was expected.
https://www.census.gov/construction/c30/pdf/totsa.pdf

@markets: U.S. auto sales surged by more than 8% in the first quarter
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-01/automakers-notch-strong-sales-bounce-a-year-after-covid-19-onset

Joe Biden: We Cannot Afford Not to Spend $2.5 Trillion on My Infrastructure Plan
Only $639 billion dollars is for real infrastructure spending. The rest is more of the liberal wish list including spending on items from the green new deal…
https://davidharrisjr.com/steven/joe-biden-we-cannot-afford-not-to-spend-2-5-trillion-on-my-infrastructure-plan/

White House says bills are bipartisan even if GOP doesn’t vote for them [Not a parody piece! A 1984 like “Ministry of Truth” is operating in the US; yet many people still don’t get it or care!]
https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/546238-white-house-says-bills-are-bipartisan-even-if-gop-doesnt-vote-for

Biden adviser argues for ‘update’ to meaning of ‘infrastructure’ while pitching broad $2T spending plan   https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/biden-adviser-infrastructure-meaning-update-spending-plan

When I use a word,” Humpty Dumpty said, in rather a scornful tone, “it means just what I choose it to mean—neither more nor less.”  The world foretold by 1984, Through the Looking Glass, and Fahrenheit 451 is upon us – and far too many people do not care or advocate for it.

Electric vehicles and biofuel: Pentagon poised to go greener under Biden
The Pentagon is weighing a series of proposals… from mandating all-electric vehicles to weaning trucks, ships and aircraft off of fossil fuels…  A spokesperson for Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) said climate programs distract from the military’s “core mission.”… [Return to masts and sails for the US Navy?]
https://www.politico.com/news/2021/03/31/electric-vehicles-biofuel-pentagon-biden-478764

Wars are won on logistics.  What will the US Army do if their electric-powered tanks and vehicles run out of fuel when they are on the battlefield.  How long will it take to recharge batteries?  Do the equivalent of tankers and fuel-supply trucks exist for electronic vehicles?  See Gen. George Patton Jr. on tank battles and fuel logistics – or just watch the movie.
Leveraged Blowout: How Hwang’s Archegos Blindsided Global Banks
Archegos was able to place outsize wagers using derivatives and, as a private firm, avoid the disclosures required of most investors…he accumulated a portfolio that some people familiar with his accounts estimate at as much as $100 billion… [Archegos never owned shares; just derivatives!]
    Swaps are agreements between a bank and its client that are settled on the basis of changing prices in the underlying assets… One benefit of swaps is they allow big investors like Hwang to build positions in a stock anonymously. A prime broker would buy the shares and report itself as the beneficial owner when in reality Archegos was bearing the economic risk.   To execute such a swap, Archegos would put up a percentage of the position’s value in cash as margin. The rest of the trade would be financed by the prime broker… The SEC has already opened a preliminary investigation into Hwang’s trades and is calling other big investors to inquire about their use of swaps and access to leverage from prime brokers.  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-01/leveraged-blowout-how-hwang-s-archegos-blindsided-global-banks

Powell has the temerity to assert that there are no excesses or dislocations in the markets!

China’s central bank warns of financial risks, including potential defaults
The detailed comments mark the latest warning from high-level officials in China in recent weeks about domestic market risks…  https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/01/chinas-central-bank-warns-of-a-swath-of-risks-including-defaults.html

Bipartisan worry grows over national debt, which now totals $85,210 per person
“We will be in a boatload of trouble when we see interest rate spikes,” Democratic Rep. Dean Phillips says, referring to the interest costs on the national debt
    The U.S. government has spent around $6 trillion during the coronavirus pandemic, in addition to regular government appropriations. The $6 trillion figure does not count the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan that President Biden signed a few weeks ago. The deficit set a record in FY2020 at $3.13 trillion. And the national debt has hit a record $28 trillion
https://justthenews.com/government/congress/bipartisan-group-lawmakers-warn-about-threat-national-debt-which-now-85210

To paraphrase the late loquacious Senator Everett Dirksen of Illinois, ‘A trillion here, a trillion there, and pretty soon you’re talking about real money!

But the basic difficulty still remains: It is the expansion of Federal power, about which I wish to express my alarm. How easily we embrace such business.” — Senator Everett Dirksen
US and Iran agree to begin negotiations to restore the nuclear deal this week  https://trib.al/OG4pEQ0

After US officials, like over-affectionate puppies, gushed about Iran ‘indirect’ talks, Iran dissed the US, namely Kerry, Biden, Obama and others pining for an Iran deal.  Obama’s 3rd term is a redux of term 2!

US to have indirect nuclear deal talks, Iran quickly pushes back
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/us-indirect-nuclear-talks-iran-not-acceptable

Iran rejects ‘step-by-step’ lifting of sanctions – Press TV http://reut.rs/2PzChdI

Israel, in first comment, says troubled by US position ahead of Iran talks
Malley acknowledged that Iranian nuclear scientists have more information and experience than in 2015 due to their continued violations of the JCPOA. But he did not suggest any solutions, saying only that there will be “difficult discussions about what we need to do so that we and others… are satisfied that Iran is back in compliance with the commitments that it made.”  A senior Israeli official said: “If this is American policy, we are concerned.”… [When will Israel attack ran’s nukes?]
https://m.jpost.com/international/israel-troubled-by-us-position-ahead-of-iran-talks-this-week-664098/amp

Tesla Deliveries Smash Expectations on Reception in China
Delivered 184,800 cars worldwide in the first three months of the year, up from 180,570 in the fourth quarter… Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg had expected deliveries of 169,850…
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-02/tesla-delivers-184-800-cars-in-1q-on-strong-reception-in-china

Trump Was Right: Sunlight Destroys COVID 8x Faster Than Scientists Believed, Study Shows
https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/trump-was-right-sunlight-destroys-covid-8x-faster-scientists-believed-study-shows

Saudi Arabia raised prices for oil shipments to customers in its main market of Asia for next month, signaling the kingdom’s confidence in the region’s economic recovery https://t.co/wpWSSW8YiU

Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Returns to Yen Market with New Bond
Conglomerate starts marketing yen debt in multi-tranche deal
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-05/buffett-s-berkshire-hathaway-returns-to-yen-market-with-new-bond

‘Big Short’ investor Michael Burry says he’ll stop tweeting after SEC regulators paid him a visit
The investor has used Twitter to warn of speculative bubbles in markets and predict a devastating crash. He’s also tweeted criticism of Tesla – which he’s short – as well as bitcoin, Dogecoin, Robinhood, and the GameStop buying frenzy this year. On the other hand, he recently praised Volkswagen and said he owned a stake in the automaker’s largest shareholder, Porsche SE… [Fascism or Stalinism?]
https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/news/big-short-investor-michael-burry-stop-tweets-sec-regulators-visit-2021-3-1030222890

@JonathanTurley: If a president is going to accuse a state of passing a Jim Crow law (let alone supporting a boycott), there is an expectation of a modicum of accuracy and fairness.  Otherwise, it degrades not just the movement for voting rights but the Presidency itselfhttps://t.co/RwBiR3R73S

“C’mon Man!”: Biden Again Misrepresents Georgia Election Law While Supporting State Boycott
Biden falsely claims that the law closes polling places earlier, a claim that even the Washington Post decried as false…  It is a common false claim made about denying water under the law to people standing in line to vote. What is astonishing is that the media itself has fueled this false narrative and it is being used as a key claim in boycotting the state…
https://jonathanturley.org/2021/04/01/cmon-man-biden-again-misrepresents-georgia-election-law-while-supporting-state-boycott/

The foolish CEO of Delta inveighed against voter ID in Georgia.  Now, he is being hammered for the hypocrisy of needing an ID to fly, amount other things, while asserting that voter ID is racist. 

@greg_price11: Why is Delta literally trying to stop black people from flying by requiring a photo ID?

GOP Sen. @marcorubio: Dear @Delta: You are business partners with the Communist Party of China.
When can we expect your letter saying that their ongoing genocide in Xinjiang is “unacceptable and does not match Delta’s values“??? #WokeCorporateHypocrites

From Delta, a lesson for woke corporations
Last week, Delta released a statement praising improvements in the bill – on absentee voting, weekend voting, poll worker flexibility, and more…The statement prompted some ugly blowback from the left…
   So, Bastian issued his new statement to the “Delta family.” Then Georgia Governor Brian Kemp cut Bastian’s legs out from under him. Delta did engage in the legislative process, Kemp said, and “At no point did Delta share any opposition to expanding early voting, strengthening voter ID measures, increasing the use of secure drop boxes statewide, and making it easier for local election officials to administer elections — which is exactly what this bill does.” Just to stick it in a little, Kemp added, “The last time I flew Delta, I had to present my photo ID.”… What’s the lesson? Why not just stick to flying and stay out of politics as much as possible?
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/byron-yorks-daily-memo-from-delta-a-lesson-for-woke-corporations

Delta Cancels 100 Flights, Temporarily Reopens Some Middle Seats [Divert attention via wokism?]
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-04/delta-cancels-100-flights-temporarily-reopens-some-middle-seats

@Breaking911: Coca-Cola CEO says the “racist” Georgia voter ID law is “a step backward” and “unacceptable”. He requires a photo ID to be shown in order to gain admission to Coca-Cola’s annual shareholder meeting.

Apple CEO Tim Cook Blasts Georgia Voting Law; Has Stayed Silent on China’s Anti-Democracy Repression for Years   https://dailycaller.com/2021/04/01/tim-cook-apple-georgia-voting-china/

When big business conjoins with a political party to enforce a political agenda by punishing dissenters, you have FASCISM – pure and simple!  US big business is increasingly fascist.

@LisaMarieBoothe: The Left straight up lies about the GA election law, the media pushes those lies, and then corporations like the @MLB punish the state over something it didn’t do. Rinse and repeat moving forward. I hope everyone is awake now!

GOP @RepJeffDuncan: In light of @MLB’s stance to undermine election integrity laws, I have instructed my staff to begin drafting legislation to remove Major League Baseball’s federal antitrust exception.

Sen Josh Hawley @HawleyMO: The woke capitalists continue their campaign of retaliation & suppression against anyone who stands for election integrity. They tried it against me, now they’re at it in Georgia. MLB should lose its government handout antitrust exemption.

@Surabees: Since the @MLB is so super woke, someone should ask them why they’ve never had a black league commissioner? Why isn’t there a single team in the league with a principal owner who is black? What percentage of MLB executives are minorities?

@bonchieredstate: MLB out here making money in China and mining Cuba for players, but don’t you dare expand early voting and require voter ID.

Sen @TomCottonAR: Hey @MLB, how many dropboxes does Cuba use for early voting?

Woke capitalism comes to Georgia…but not China – Corporations who bow to online mobs in the West should be cutting ties with real authoritarian regimes
    In March 2020, a Congressional Executive Commission on human-rights abuses in Xinjiang listed Coca-Cola as a major American company with ties to forced labor camps in the Chinese province. Other companies on the list included Nike, Adidas, Calvin Klein, Campbell’s Soup Company, CostCo, H&M (who has since distanced themselves from China and paid a price for it), Patagonia and Tommy Hilfiger. The report went on to specifically name Coca-Cola’s COFO Tunhe sugar facility in Xinjiang as having direct ties to forced labor…  https://spectator.us/topic/woke-capitalism-comes-georgia-china-boycott-coca-cola/

Donald Trump: ‘Boycott Baseball’ and ‘Woke Companies’ Opposing Georgia Election Law
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2021/04/02/donald-trump-boycott-baseball-woke-companies-opposing-georgia-election-law/

Governor Brian P. Kemp @GovKemp: Today, @MLB caved to fear, political opportunism, and liberal lies.  Georgians – and all Americans – should fully understand what the MLB’s knee-jerk decision means: cancel culture and woke political activists are coming for every aspect of your life, sports included. If the left doesn’t agree with you, facts and the truth do not matter.  This attack on our state is the direct result of repeated lies from Joe Biden and Stacey Abrams about a bill that expands access to the ballot box and ensures the integrity of our elections.  I will not back down. Georgians will not be bullied. We will continue to stand up for secure, accessible, fair election…

Texas Just Shoved “Woke” American Airlines Right Back in Their Corner
https://www.robmaness.com/2021/04/texas-just-shoved-woke-american-airlines-right-back-in-their-corner/

@susie_dent: Word of the Day (on repeat) is ‘ipsedixitism’: the dogmatic assertion that something is ‘fact’ without any proof to back it up, or because someone, somewhere said it.

AP: The poll also finds rare bipartisan support on a measure: requiring photo identification to vote. Overall, 72% of Americans were in favor, including most Republicans and a slim majority of Democrats. https://twitter.com/AP/status/1377958696899256326

Black Americans Debunk Liberal Talking Point That Voter ID Is ‘Racist’: ‘They’re Ignorant’
https://www.dailywire.com/news/watch-black-americans-debunk-liberal-talking-point-that-voter-id-is-racist-theyre-ignorant

@ClayTravis: New York State has more restrictive voting rules than Georgia. I assume Rob Manfred will be relocating @MLB corporate offices this weekend, right? It’s the only choice to make.

CBS News blasted for ‘Dem activism’ with report on ‘3 ways companies can help fight’ Georgia election law   https://www.foxnews.com/media/cbs-news-georgia-election-law

@themarketswork: Democrats are concerned they won’t be able to subvert election results by flooding our electoral system with 150 million mail-in ballots.

@MZHemingway: This isn’t ‘bias,’ and it’s not sufficient to complain and move on. This is straight-up destruction of the country. Act like it. Everyone, particularly GOP pols, go HARD against the liars. Stop bowing down to them. If you lack the courage to fight, quit and let someone else do it.
     I have never seen anything as suspicious as the Democrat/media/corporation reaction to the mildest of mild — in actuality a pitifully mild — election integrity bills ever written. What’s the word for this obvious of a “tell”?

Donald Trump’s share of the Latino vote surged to nearly 33% in 2020 election – a sharp increase from 2016 when he won just 18%, study finds [There is only one reason that Trump lost the election.]
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9435365/Donald-Trumps-share-Latino-vote-surged-nearly-33-2020-election.html

@ABC: Despite mail-in voting being disallowed in Bulgaria’s parliamentary elections, people in hospitals or quarantined were still able to cast their ballots—with the ballot box brought right to their doors. https://t.co/XFCBP0glVM

Charles Barkley Blames Politicians for Stoking Racial Division to ‘Keep Their Grasp of Money and Power’  https://beckernews.com/charles-barkley-blames-politicians-for-stoking-racial-division-to-keep-their-grasp-of-money-and-power-38279/

Tucker: The Republican Party has to figure out its future
Carlson to the Republican Party: ‘Stop sucking up to the people who hate you’
https://www.foxnews.com/media/tucker-the-republican-party-has-to-figure-out-its-future

“Brutal” Abuse of Power: Watch as UK Police Break Up “Unlawful Gathering” Easter Service in London    https://www.zerohedge.com/political/brutal-abuse-power-watch-uk-police-break-easter-service-london

Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction.” — Ronald Reagan

The more corrupt the state, the more numerous the laws.” – Tacitus

@ChuckRossDC: Suspect in Killing of Capitol Officer Is a Nation of Islam Supporter, NBC News Reports.  Noah Green went by the name Noah X and called himself a “Follower of Farrakhan,” according to his Facebook.  https://dailycaller.com/2021/04/02/noah-green-capitol-nation-of-islam/

Last week there were at least five racial attacks as well as numerous ‘mass shootings’ in big US cities.  The media is mum on them because the demographics of the crime is contra to their preferred narratives.

Sen. @HawleyMO: Erin & I were sickened to hear of the violent attack at the Capitol yesterday by an extremist follower of Louis Farrakhan. We pray for the family of Officer Evans & for others injured in the line of duty. Thanks to the brave men & women of the USCP for their tireless serviceMedia and elected officials must condemn these attacks and the violent, extremist ideology that motivated them

CNN ridiculed for saying there is ‘no consensus for assigning sex at birth’ https://trib.al/a0Zvd2p

@seanmdav: The only difference between Pravda in the Soviet Union and the New York Times today is that the people who ran Pravda openly admitted they were a bunch of communists who hated America.

Hunter Biden says laptop at center of Post exposé could ‘absolutely’ belong to him
“Certainly, there could be a laptop out there that was stolen from me. It could be that I was hacked, it could be that it was Russian intelligence. It could be that it was stolen from me,” he continued…
https://trib.al/gqYZda

@JonathanTurley: One of the “beautiful things” in Hunter’s life is a media that imposed a blackout before the election on the laptop story and continues to wrap him and his father in a protective press cocoon.     Jonathan Turley: Will the press ever cover the Hunter Biden news fairly?
https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/546289-will-the-press-ever-cover-the-hunter-biden-news-fairly

Pete Buttigieg rides bike unloaded from SUV near meeting for ‘green’ trek to work [What a fraud!]
Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg tried to burnish his “green” credentials Thursday by biking to a Cabinet meeting — after unloading it from an SUV near his intended destination.
    CNN reporter DJ Judd, WFMZ-TV and social media users all posted the viral clip of Mr. Buttigieg‘s security team unloading the bike prior to a White House meeting. “Caught in the act,” conservative author/filmmaker Dinesh D’Souza responded to the apparent “green” theater.
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2021/apr/2/pete-buttigieg-rides-bike-unloaded-from-suv-near-m/

Buttigieg mocked after security seen unloading bike from SUV at White House
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/buttigieg-mocked-security-seen-unloading-bike-from-suv-before-white-house-trip

@drdavidsamadi: These are scenes from Brussels, Belgium over the week as police split up a gathering in a park that went against COVID-19 restrictions. No, I’m not kiddinghttps://t.co/wuVuJjQWOi

Biden fails to mention Jesus in ‘Easter Address,’ speaks of COVID [Seven times!]
“We share the sentiments of Pope Francis who has said that getting vaccinated is a moral obligation,” Biden said… Critics said the focus of Biden’s address showed the modern left was really worshipping money and power instead of Jesus. https://www.oann.com/biden-fails-to-mention-jesus-in-easter-address-speaks-of-covid/ 

end

Let us close the day with this offering courtesy of Greg Hunter…

Vaccination of Fear, Depopulation? – Economic Update

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com (WNW474 4.2.2021)

Close to 100 million people reportedly have fallen for the CV-19 vaccination scam based on fear, lies and lies of omission.  Nobody wants to inform the public the so-called “vaccines” are totally experimental, and the doctors have no idea what the side effects will be.  They also do not want to tell the public of non-vaccine remedies such as the miracle drug Ivermectin and its profound effect on stopping CV-19 if taken long before you need to go to the hospital.  Yet, the extreme push to “vaccinate” the masses continues, even though it’s reported 100 people got infected with CV-19 after being fully “vaccinated” in Washington State alone.  There are many more that got CV-19 after being fully “vaccinated” all across the country.

The former Chief Science Officer and a VP at Pfizer is saying “it’s entirely possible vaccine campaigns will be used for massive-scale depopulation.”  Dr. Mike Yeadon says CV-19 “did not have to become a public health crisis” because we could have used things such as “hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) and Ivermectin.”  Yeadon also calls the push for worldwide vaccination of CV-19 “global crimes against humanity.”

Is the U.S. dollar going to remain the global reserve currency?  Many central banks are worried about the massive money printing and the massive budget deficits in the United States.  VP Biden wants to sign even more multi-trillion dollar spending bills in the coming months.  Meanwhile, the dollars used in global trade have now sunk to 59%.  It was 66% just 7 years ago.  If the dollar is dumped, will inflation soar?  You bet.

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he talks about these stories and more in the Weekly News Wrap-Up for 4.2.2021.

Vaccination of Fear, Depopulation? – Economic Update

I will see you TUESDAY night.

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