APRIL 7/GOLD CLOSED DOWN $1.25 TO $1740.70//SILVER ROSE 3 CENTS TO $25.18//GOLD TONNAGE AT THE COMEX ROSE SMARTLY UP 1 FULL TONNE TO 79.9 TONNES//SILVER HELD FIRM AT 14.210 MILLION OZ//MAY OPEN INTEREST FOR SILVER REFUSES TO CONTRACT AND REMAINS AT 116,000 CONTRACTS//CORONAVIRUS UPDATE/VACCINE UPDATE//HUNGARIAN CENTRAL BANK TRIPLES ITS RESERVES FROM 31 TONNES TO 94 TONNES OF GOLD//USA MULLING THE IDEA OF BOYCOTTING THE BEIJING OLYMPICS//RUSSIA VS UKRAINE UPDATES/YELLEN TO REVEAL HER $2.5 TAX RECLAMATION PLAN: SHE THREATENS TO WITHDRAW ACCOMODATION//HIGHEST EVER USA DEFICIT IN FEB AT $71.1 BILLION//ARCHEGOS UPDATES/SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

GOLD:$1740.70 DOWN $1.25   The quote is London spot price

Silver:$25.18 UP  $0.03   London spot price ( cash market)

your data.

 
 
 

Closing access prices:  London spot

i)Gold : $1737.50 LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

ii)SILVER:  $25.15//LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

PLATINUM AND PALLADIUM PRICES BY KITCOL

 

 

PLATINIUM  $1221.00 DOWN $14.00

PALLADIUM: 2542.00 DOWN $58.00 PER OZ

 

James McShirley on the pricing of gold eagles/and silver eagle33

Even the TV pundits are now asking, without bothering to investigate, “what’s wrong with gold?” Yes indeed, what’s wrong with gold, other than a relentless daily cartel assault on PAPER gold. The physical coin premiums are widening out to spot. Gold Eagles are showing $200+ to spot, Silver Eagles $10+ to spot, if you can even find them. Supply and demand- fuggettaboutit. The more dollars printed the more valuable they become, and the more scarce gold and silver are the lower their prices go, so sayeth the Working Group.

Jim McShirley

Editorial of The New York Sun | February 1, 2021

end

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COMEX DATA

 
 
 

COMEX DATA

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

receiving today   222/456

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: APRIL 2021 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,741.500000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 04/06/2021 DELIVERY DATE: 04/08/2021
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
072 C GOLDMAN 40
072 H GOLDMAN 95
104 C MIZUHO 200
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 1
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 47
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 10
661 C JP MORGAN 222
661 H JP MORGAN 249
686 C STONEX FINANCIA 3
709 C BARCLAYS 26
737 C ADVANTAGE 2 2
800 C MAREX SPEC 4 3
880 H CITIGROUP 4
905 C ADM 1 3
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 456 456
MONTH TO DATE: 21,864

ISSUED: 0

Goldman Sachs:  stopped:  40

 
 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  APRIL. CONTRACT: 456 NOTICE(S) FOR 45600 OZ  (1.418 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  21,864 NOTICES FOR 2,186,400 OZ  (68.00 tonnes) 

SILVER//APRIL CONTRACT

 

1 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 5,000  OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month: 2435 for 12,175,000  oz

BITCOIN MORNING QUOTE  $55,942   DOWN 2374

BITCOIN AFTERNOON QUOTE.:  $55,984 DOWN 2332 DOLLARS  

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

GLD AND SLV INVENTORIES:

GLD AND SLV INVENTORIES:

Gold

WITH GOLD DOWN $1.25  AND NO PHYSICAL TO BE FOUND ANYWHERE:

WITH ALL REFINER CLOSED//MEXICO ORDERING ALL MINES SHUT:   WHERE ARE THEY GETTING THE “PHYSICAL?STRANGE!

A HUGE  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//:  A PAPER  WITHDRAWAL OF 3.78 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD FROM GLD.

WITH RESPECT TO GLD WITHDRAWALS: 

GOLD IS “RETURNED” TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHO ARE CALLING IN THEIR LEASES: THE GOLD NEVER LEAVES THE B OF ENGLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BANK IS PROTECTING ITSELF IN CASE OF COMMERCIAL FAILURE

THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD!!

GLD: 1,029.05 TONNES OF GOLD//

Silver

AND WITH NO SILVER AROUND  TODAY: WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS

A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 256,000 OZ

 

WITH REGARD TO SILVER WITHDRAWALS FROM THE SLV:

THE SILVER WITHDRAWALS ARE ACTUALLY “RETURNED” TO JPM, AS JPMORGAN CALLS IN ITS LEASES WITH THE SLV FUND.  (THE STORY IS THE SAME AS THE BANK OF ENGLAND’S GOLD). THE SILVER NEVER LEAVES JPMORGAN’S VAULTS. THEY ARE CALLING IN THEIR LEASES FOR FEAR OF SOLVENCY ISSUES.

INVENTORY RESTS AT:

574.868  MILLION OZ./SLV

xxxxx

GLD closing price//NYSE 162.75 DOWN $0.47 OR  0.29%

XXXXXXXXXXXXX

SLV closing price NYSE 23.34 UP $0.0 OR 00%

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

 
 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

THE COMEX OI IN SILVER ROSE BY A FAIR SIZED 583 CONTRACTS FROM 154,010 UP TO 154,593, AND CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020. THE GAIN IN OI OCCURRED WITH OUR  $0.39 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX  ON TUESDAY. IT SEEMS THAT THE GAIN IN COMEX OI IS  DUE TO A SOME BANKER AND ALGO  SHORT COVERING !//STRONG REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//.. COUPLED AGAINST FAIR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. WE ALSO  HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AS WE GAINED A STRONG 1136 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. 

 

WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A FAIR  NUMBER OF  COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 532,, AS WE HAD THE FOLLOWING ISSUANCE:  MARCH  0 MAY:  532 AND ZERO ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE 532 CONTRACTS. THE BANKERS ARE NOW BEING BITTEN BY THOSE SERIAL FORWARDS (EFP’S CIRCULATING IN LONDON)AS THEY ARE NOW BEING EXERCISED AND COMING BACK TO NEW YORK FOR REDEMPTION OF METAL.  THE COST TO SERVICE THESE SERIAL FORWARDS IS HIGH TO OUR BANKERS  BUT THEY HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO ISSUE A FEW OF THEM!

HISTORY OF SILVER OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR THE PAST 33 MONTHS.

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

7.32     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

2.630     MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOV.

20.970   MILLION OZ  FINAL STANDING IN DEC

2020

5.075     MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JAN

1.480    MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN FEB

23.005  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAR** 

4.660  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR APRIL****

45.220 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAY***

2.205  MILLION OF FINAL STANDING FOR JUNE

86.470 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JULY…RECORD HIGHEST EVER

6.475 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN AUGUST

55.400 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN SEPT

8.900 MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT.

3.950 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN NOV.

46.685 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR DEC.

2021

6.890 MILLION FINAL STANDING FOR JAN 2021

12.020  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR FEB 2021

58.425 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MARCH 2021//2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED

14.210 MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING FOR APRIL

 

TUESDAY, AGAIN OUR CROOKS USED COPIOUS PAPER TRYING TO LIQUIDATE SILVER’S PRICE …AND THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN ,(IT ROSE BY $0.39) OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS WERE   UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE ANY SILVER LONGS AS  WE HAD A NET GAIN OF 1115 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES, THE MAJOR CAUSE WAS DUE TO i)SOME BANKER/ALGO SHORT COVERING// WE ALSO HAD  ii) GOOD REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//.    iii)  A FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANG EFOR PHYSICALS 2) A ZERO INCREASE IN SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER // APRIL: 14.210 MILLION OZ, iv) FAIR COMEX OI GAIN AND iv) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION //.YOU CAN BET THE FARM THAT OUR BANKERS  ARE DESPERATE TO LIQUIDATE THEIR HUGE SHORT POSITIONS IN SILVER..

 
 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

 

APRIL

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY /FOR MONTH OF MAR:

1758 CONTRACTS (FOR 5 TRADING DAY(S) TOTAL 1758 CONTRACTS) OR 8.790 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 352 CONTRACTS OR 1.758 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF MAR: 8.790 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON.

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF MAR:  8.790 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON.

JAN EFP ACCUMULATION FINAL:  113.735 MILLION OZ

FEB EFP ACCUMULATION FINAL:   208.18 MILLION OZ (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

MAR EFP ACCUMULATION SO FAR: : 103.450 MILLION OZ  (DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//FEARS OF EFP CONTRACTS BEING EXERCISED FOR METAL)

APRIL: 8.790 MILLION OZ  (SILVER IN BACKWARDATION AND THUS MUCH SLOWER ISSUANCE OF EFP’S)

RESULT: WE HAD A FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 604, WITH OUR  $0.39 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ///TUESDAY .…THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A FAIR SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 301 CONTRACTS WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS.

TODAY WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 1136 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES (WITH OUR  $0.39 GAIN IN PRICE)//THE DOMINANT FEATURE TODAY WAS THE SMALL BANKER SHORTCOVERING AND A MONTH OF MAY OPEN INTEREST REFUSING TO ROLL TO FUTURE MONTHS. THE BANKERS SEE THE TEA LEAVES FORMING AND THEY ARE GETTING OUT OF DODGE IN A BIG WAY…TOO MANY WISH TO STAND FOR DELIVERY…

THE TALLY//EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

i.e  532 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s)TOGETHER WITH A FAIR SIZED INCREASE OF 583 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND HAPPENED WITH OUR $0.39 GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER/AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $25.15//TUESDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY. 

FOR THE NEW APRIL.  DELIVERY MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 1 NOTICE(S) FOR 5,000, OZ OF SILVER.

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018. AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.70//TODAY’S RECORD OF 244,705 WAS SET WITH A PRICE OF: 18.91 (FEB 25/2020)

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 
 
 
 

GOLD

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 6313 CONTRACTS TO 463,353,AND CLOSER TO OUR NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE INCREASE IN COMEX OI OCCURRED WITH OUR STRONG GAIN IN PRICE  OF $12.00///COMEX GOLD TRADING//TUESDAY.AS IN SILVER WE MUST HAVE HAD STRONG BANKER/ALGO SHORT COVERING ACCOMPANYING OUR FAIR SIZED EXCHANGE FOR  PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. WE ALSO HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AS WE HAD A STRONG GAIN OF 8957 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.  WE ALSO HAD A STRONG GAIN IN GOLD TONNAGE, EXTENDING NORTHBOUND TO TO 79.832 TONNES. IT LOOKS LIKE THE BOYS ARE SEARCHING FOR METAL OVER HERE TONIGHT!! 

 

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $12.00 WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD A VOLUME OF 0    4 -GC CONTRACTS//OPEN INTEREST  0//

WE HAD A STRONG GAIN  OF 8957 OI CONTRACTS (27.86 TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES 

 

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 2644 CONTRACTS:

CONTRACT . FEB:0,  APRIL:  0 AND JUNE:  2644  ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO//TOTAL: 2644.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 463,353. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EXCHANGE DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 8957 CONTRACTS: 6313 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 2644 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 8957 CONTRACTS OR 27.86 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (2644) ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI  (6313 OI): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES:  8957 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1 ) SOME BANKER SHORT COVERING AS OUR BANKERS ARE RUNNING FROM DODGE AND CONSIDERABLE ALGO SHORT COVERING ,2.) HUGE INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX AND A MASSIVE ADVANCE FOR THE FRONT APRIL. MONTH ON DAY 5 OF THE DELIVERY CYCLE TO   79.832 TONNES)  3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION,  /// ;4) STRONG COMEX OI GAIN AND 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL AND ….ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR STRONG GAIN IN GOLD PRICE TRADING TUESDAY//$12.00!!.

 

 
 

SPREADING OPERATIONS/NOW SWITCHING TO SILVER  (WE SWITCH OVER TO SILVER ON MAR  1)

FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS:

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED IN SILVER  AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF MAY.

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

 
 

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

.

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO SILVER AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX SILVER OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL. HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY FOR SILVER:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF APRIL. BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (MAY), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2021 INCLUDING TODAY

APRIL

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL : 9690, CONTRACTS OR 969,000 oz OR 30.139 TONNES (5 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 1938 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 5 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 30.139 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2020, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 30.139/3550 x 100% TONNES =0.847% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO DATE:
 
 
JANUARY: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)
 
FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..
 
 
MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN///IT SURPASSED JANUARY!!)

 

APRIL:      30.139 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, ROSE BY A FAIR SIZED 583 CONTRACTS FROM 154,010 DOWN TO 154,593 AND FURTHER FROM OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 3/4 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

THE STRONG SIZED LOSS IN OI SILVER COMEX WAS PRIMARILY DUE TO; 1) SOME BANKER SHORT COVERING//ALGO SHORT COVERING// GOOD REDDIT// RAPTOR BUYING , 2) A FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (SEE BELOW), 3) A ZERO INCREASE IN  STANDING FOR SILVER  AT THE COMEX FOR APRIL AT 14.210 MILLION OZ//., AND 4) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION.

EFP ISSUANCE 532 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 MARCH:  0 ; MAY: 532 AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 532 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI GAIN OF 583 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 3532 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 1115 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 5.575 MILLION  OZ, OCCURRED WITH OUR $0.39 GAIN IN PRICE///

 

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL..THE EVIDENCE IS CLEAR: HUGE AMOUNTS OF PHYSICAL STANDING FOR BOTH  SILVER AND GOLD .

 

(report Harvey)

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)TUESDAY MORNING/ MONDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 3.34 PTS OR .10%   //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 263.94 PTS OR 0.41%     /The Nikkei closed UP 34.16 POINTS OR 1.30%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.61%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN AT 6.5413 /Oil UP TO 59.97 dollars per barrel for WTI and 63.28 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MIXED //  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.5413. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.5468   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

 
 
 

COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE  BY STRONG SIZED 6313 CONTRACTS TO 464,488 MOVING CLOSER TO THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020).  AND THIS  COMEX INCREASE OCCURRED WITH OUR GAIN OF $12.00 IN GOLD PRICING TUESDAY’S COMEX TRADING…WE ALSO HAD A FAIR EFP ISSUANCE (2644 CONTRACTS). .AS THEY WERE PAID OFF NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY.  

WE HAVE ALSO  LATELY WITNESSED  EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL….. AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS.

(SEE BELOW)

WE  HAD 0    4 -GC VOLUME//open interest REMAINS AT   0

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 2644 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  ;  AND APRIL:  0, JUNE:  2644 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2644  CONTRACTS.

YOU WILL FIND THAT WHEN WE HAVE A GOOD PREMIUM IN THE FUTURES/SPOT, THEN THE NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS DECLINE IN NUMBERS.  THE COST IS JUST TOO MUCH FOR THEM TO ISSUE. TODAY THAT PREMIUM WAS SMALL AND THUS A LITTLE MORE THAN USUAL OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WERE ISSUED.

HOWEVER, WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION, THE OPPOSITE IS TRUE. EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. LONDON IS OUT OF METAL.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A STRONG SIZED 8957  TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 2644 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A STRONG SIZED  COMEX OI  OF 6313 CONTRACTS.WE HAVE A HUGE AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR APRIL  (79.832 TONNES) WHICH FOLLOWS MARCH:  (30.205 TONNES) WHICH FOLLOWED FEB (113.424 TONNES)  WHICH FOLLOWED OUR STRONG LEVEL OF JAN 2021 GOLD . ((6.500 TONNES).  

THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT ROSE $12.00)., AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING ANY LONGS AS WE HAD A STRONG  NET GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 10,092 CONTRACTS.  THE TOTAL GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES REGISTERED  27.86 TONNES TONNES, ACCOMPANYING OUR STRONG GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR APRIL (79.832 TONNES)..I  STRONGLY BELIEVE THAT 0UR BANKER FRIENDS ARE GETTING QUITE NERVOUS.  THE SMALL GAIN IN COMEX OI IS DUE TO BANKER SHORT COVERING IN A BIG WAY.  THEY ARE LOOKING OVER THEIR SHOULDERS AND WITNESSING MASSIVE SILVER/GOLD SHORTAGES THAT CANNOT BE COVERED. THEY ARE TRYING TO FLEE IN HASTE “FROM DODGE”. 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES :: 8957 CONTRACTS OR  895,700 OZ OR  27.86  TONNES

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT COMMODITY FUTURES OPEN INTEREST SHOULD APPROXIMATE 3% OF TOTAL PRODUCTION.  IN GOLD THE WORLD PRODUCES AROUND 3500 TONNES PER YEAR BUT ONLY 2200 TONNES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE WEST (THUS EXCLUDING RUSSIA, CHINA ETC..WHO KEEP 100% OF THEIR PRODUCT.
 
THUS IN GOLD WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:  463,353 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS X 100 OZ PER CONTRACT = 46.33 MILLION OZ/32,150 OZ PER TONNE =  1441 TONNES

 

THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST REPRESENTS 1441/2200 OR 65.50% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF GOLD.

 
 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX GOLD TODAY:112,865 contracts// volume extremely  poor/   //

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  160,332 contracts//  volume:   extremely poor// //most of our traders have left for London

 

APRIL 7 /2021

 
INITIAL STANDINGS FOR APRIL COMEX GOLD
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
 
 
 
2082.499 OZ
MANFRA
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz NIL
OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz
 
21,308.375 OZ
JPMORGAN
ENHANCED
LONDON BARS
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
No of oz served (contracts) today
456  notice(s)
45600 OZ
(1.418 TONNES
 
No of oz to be served (notices)
3802 contracts
(380,200oz)
 
11.82 TONNES
 
 
 
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
21,864 notices
2,186,400 OZ
68.000 TONNES
 
 
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz
 

We had 0 deposit into the dealer

i)NIL
 
 
 
 
total deposit:  NIL   oz
 
 
 

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had 1 deposits into the customer account
i) JPMorgan:  21,308.375 oz  Enhanced London bars
 
 
TOTA CUSTOMER DEPOSITS: 21,308.375  oz
 
 
 
 
 
 
We had 1 withdrawals
 
out of Manfra:  2082.499 oz
 
 
 
1
 
total withdrawals:  2082.499 oz
 
 
 
 
 
 

We had 2  kilobar transactions (1 out of 3 transactions)

ADJUSTMENTS  1:   dealer to customer 

i) Brinks:  3279.402 oz

 
 
 

The front month of APRIL registered a total of 4258 CONTRACTS for a loss of 180 contracts.  We had a huge 515 notices filed on FRIDAY, so GAINED A MONSTROUS 335 contracts or an additional 33,500 oz will  stand for gold in this very active delivery month of April./ Our banker friends are after a huge amount of gold to rescue somebody!!

 

 
 
 
 

MAY GAINED 21 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 1609

JUNE GAINED 5067 CONTRACTS UP TO 382,899

We had 456 notice(s) filed today for 45,600 oz

FOR THE APRIL 2021 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and  0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to  456  contract(s) of which 0  notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 222 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 40 notices received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the APRIL /2021. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (21,864) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  (APRIL:  4258 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today 456 x 100 oz per contract) equals 2,566,000 OZ OR 79.832 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this  active month of MAR

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the APRIL contract month:

No of notices filed so far 21,864 x 100 oz  + (4258 OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (456} x 100 oz which equals 2,566,000 oz standing OR 79.832 TONNES in this  active delivery month of APRIL. This is a HUGE/ATMOSPHERIC amount standing for GOLD IN APRIL, A GENERALLY STRONG ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH. THE TONNAGE AT THE COMEX WOULD HAVE BEEN 20 TONNES HIGHER IF THEY DID NOT PAY OFF THE EFP’S NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY AT THE COMEX

 

WE GAINED A HUGE 335 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 33500 OZ WILL STAND FOR GOLD ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND AS THEY REFUSED TO MORPHED INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS 

 

 WHAT IS CLEAR IS THIS: NOBODY LEFT THE GOLD ARENA 

 

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

464,420.335, oz NOW PLEDGED  march 5/2021/HSBC  13.626 TONNES

351,292.365 PLEDGED  MANFRA 10.92 TONNES

326,724.655 oz  JPM  10.162 TONNES

1,083,680.877 oz pledged June 12/2020 Brinks/33.706 TONNES

94,500.934 oz Pledged August 21/regular account 2.93 tonnes JPMORGAN

6,308.08 oz International Delaware:  .196 tonnes

192.906 oz Malca

total pledged gold:  2,327,120.147 oz                                     72.38 tonnes

 

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES…. WE HAVE 486.44 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS i.e. 79.832 tonnes

CALCULATION OF REGISTERED THAT CAN BE SETTLED UPON:

total registered or dealer  17,966,353.069 oz or 558.82 tonnes
 
 
total weight of pledged:  2,327,120.147 oz or 72.38 tonnes
 
 
thus:
 
registered gold that can be used to settle upon: 15,639,233.0 (486,44 tonnes) 
 
 
 
 
true registered gold  (total registered – pledged tonnes  15,639,233.0 (486.44 tonnes)
 
total eligible gold: 18,685,835.565 oz   (581.20 tonnes)
 
 
total registered, pledged  and eligible (customer) gold 36,652,188.637 oz or 1,140.03 tonnes (INCLUDES 4 GC GOLD)
 
 

total 4 GC gold:   126.34 tonnes

total gold net of 4 GC:  1013.69 tonnes

end

I have compiled  data with respect to registered (or dealer) gold taken on first day notice for each of the past 24 months

The data begins on first day notice for the May month taken on the last day of July 2018. and it continues to present day.

I then took, how many deliveries were recorded by the CME for each and every month.  I also included for reference the price of gold on first day notice.

The first graph is a logarithmic  graph and the second graph, linear.

You can see the huge explosion of registered gold at the comex along with deliveries.

 
 
THE DATA AND GRAPHS:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
END

 

 
 
APRIL 7/2021

And now for the wild silver comex results

 
 

And now for the wild silver comex results

INITIAL STANDING FOR SILVER/APRIL

APRIL. SILVER COMEX CONTRACT MONTH//INITIAL STANDING

Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
607,522.700 oz
 
 
CNT
jpm
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil
 
oz
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
581,075.400 oz
 
CNT
 
 
 
 
 
 
whatever enters the comex faults
leaves
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
No of oz served today (contracts)
1
 
CONTRACT(S)
(5,000 OZ)
 
No of oz to be served (notices)
407 contracts
 2,035,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  2435 contracts

 

12,175,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
 
We had 0 deposit into the dealer) 
 
 
 

total dealer deposits: nil        oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had  2 deposit into the customer account (ELIGIBLE ACCOUNT)

i) Into CNT  581,075.400 oz  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

JPMorgan now has 188.005 million oz of  total silver inventory or 50.98% of all official comex silver. (188.005 million/368.710 million

total customer deposits today: 581,075.400   oz

we had 3 withdrawals:

 
 
i) out of CNT: 31,106.950 oz
ii) Out of Delaware: 1949.618 oz
iii) Out of JPmorgan: 607,552.700 oz
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

total withdrawals 607,552.700   oz

We had 0 adjustments: dealer to customer

 

 
 

Total dealer(registered) silver: 121.940-million oz

total registered and eligible silver:  368.716 million oz

a net 0,026 million oz enters the comex silver vaults.

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The month of April saw 408 contracts standing for delivery for a loss of 5 contracts.  We had 5 contracts served upon yesterday, so we GAINED 0 contract or NIL oz will stand for delivery over here instead of morphing into London based forwards.
 
 
 

May SURPRISINGLY LOST A VERY VERY VERY SMALL 977 contracts to stand at  116,097 contracts. May is the next active month and it seems the cavalry are showing up for physical silver as well. Thus we have April, a non active month having an initial 14.2 million oz stand and May with open interest refusing to buckle. 

 

To give you an idea of the strength of the May contract, let us compare the open interest remaining today vs last year. At this same time, we had 75,288 oi contracts still outstanding on the May 2020.  This year:  116,097  still outstanding!!.

LAST YEAR 914 CONTRACTS ROLLED ON APRIL 6 ; TODAY 977!

June gained 115 contracts up to 546.

July gained 1117 contracts up to 22,616 contracts

 

IT LOOKS LIKE WE HAVE OUR WHALE STANDING FOR SILVER METAL.  ERIC SPROTT’S FUND HAS NOTIFIED THE SEC THAT THEY ARE DOING A SHELF OFFERING OF $2 BILLION FOR SPROTT SILVER PHYSICAL FUNDS  (PSLV). IS ERIC TAKING ON THE CROOKS BY STANDING FOR METAL IN APRIL AND MAY? THE MAY OI NUMBERS HAVE REMAINED EXTREMELY HIGH NOW FOR THE PAST 10 DAYS AS THEY REFUSE TO BUDGE. I NOW THINK THAT WE MAY HAVE TWO WHALES STANDING.  MAYBE MAINLAND CHINA?

 

The total number of notices filed today for APRIL 2021. contract month represented by 1 contract(s) FOR  5,000 oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in APRIL. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at  2435 x 5,000 oz = 12,175,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of APRIL (408) and the number of notices served upon today 1 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the April standings for silver for the APRIL/2021 contract month: 2435 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of APRIL (408)  – number of notices served upon today (1) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the Jan contract month .equals 14,210,000 oz. ..VERY STRONG FOR A NON ACTIVE APRIL MONTH. 

WE GAINED 0 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL NIL OZ WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND.

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME 49,083 CONTRACTS // volume extremely poor// volumes falling off a cliff// very 

 

FOR YESTERDAY  61,882  ,CONFIRMED VOLUME/poor

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV  RISES TO +0.39% (APRIL; 7/2021)

2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV FALLS TO –2.14% to NAV:   (APRIL 7/2021 )

Note: /Sprott physical gold trust is back into POSITIVE/0.39%(APRIL7/2021)

(courtesy Sprott/)

3. SPROTT CEF .A   FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 18.37 TRADING 17.68//NEGATIVE 3.76

 

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/(this vehicle is a fraud as there is no gold behind them!)

APRIL 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.25 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.78 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1029.05 TONNES

APRIL 6//WITH GOLD UP $12.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1032.83 TONNES

APRIL 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.65 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.67 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1032.83 TONNES.

APRIL 1/WITH GOLD UP $13.00 TODAY:  NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1037.50 TONNES

MARCH 31/WITH GOLD UP $28.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1037.50 TONNES

MARCH 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $28.20 TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD… A DEPOSIT OF .88 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1037.50TONNES

MARCH 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $20.00 TODAY//A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.41 TONNES FROM THE GLD..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1036.62 TONNES

MARCH 26/WITH GOLD UP $7.00 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1043.03 TONNES

MARCH//25: WITH GOLD DOWN $7.75 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.33 TONNES//GOLD REST AT 1043.03 TONNES

MARCH 24//WITH GOLD UP $7.75 TODAY://A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.42 TONNES OF GOLD: THIS GOLD IS BEING RETURNED TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND ON A PHONY LEASE SCAM//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1045.36 TONNES.

MARCH 23/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.65 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1051.78 TONNES

MARCH 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.90 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.5 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1051.78 TONNES

MARCH 19/WITH GOLD UP $8.60 , NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1048.28 TONNES

MARCH 18/WITH GOLD UP $5.40 TODAY, A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.04 TONNES FROM THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1048.28 TONNES

MARCH 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.65 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.32 TONNES

MARCH 16/WITH GOLD UP $2.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.75 MILLION OZ FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.32 TONNES

MARCH 15/WITH GOLD UP $8.85 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.25 TONNES OF GOLD FORM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.07 TONNES

MARCH 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.25 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A REMOVAL OF 4.96 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1055.27 TONNES

MARCH 11/WITH GOLD UP $1.25 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.75 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1060.23 TONNES

MARCH 10/WITH GOLD UP $4.70 TODAY: ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.46 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1061.98 TONNES

MARCH 9/WITH GOLD UP $37.40 TODAY: ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 5.82 TONNES FORM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1063.44 TONNES

MARCH 8/WITH GOLD  DOWN $21.00  TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 9.04 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1069.26 TONNES

MARCH 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $15.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.08 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1078.30 TONNES

MARCH 4/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.60 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1082.38 TONNES

MARCH 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $17.70 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.62 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1087.12 TONNES

MARCH 2/WITH GOLD UP $9.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WHOPPING WITHDRAWAL OF 9.04 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1084.50 TONNES

MARCH 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.65 DOLLARS; A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.7 TONNES FROM THE GLD//.INVENTORY RESTS AT 1093.54 TONNES.

FEB 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $46.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.08 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1100.24 TONNES//

FEB 25/ WITH GOLD DOWN $20.65 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.08 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY REST AT 1106.36 TONNES

FEB 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.30 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.96 TONNES FROM THE GLD// RESTS AT 1110.44 TONNES

FEB 23/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.45 TODAY: A MONSTROUS CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 12.54 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1115.40 TONNES

FEB 22/WITH GOLD UP $30.00 TODAY: STRANGE!! A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.25 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1127.64 TONNES

FEB 19/WITH GOLD UP $2.00 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1132.89 TONNES

FEB 18//WITH GOLD UP $2.60 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.79 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1132.89 TONNES

FEB 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $27.35 TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.54 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1136.68 TONNES

FEB 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $23.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORYRESTS AT 1142.20 TONNES

FEB 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.38 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1142.20 TONNES

FEB 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $15.35 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/I: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1146.60 TONNES

FEB 10/WITH GOLD UP $5.30 TODAY: ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.09 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1148.34 TONNES

FEB 9/WITH GOLD UP $4.00 TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.08 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1152.43 TONNES.

FEB 8/WITH GOLD UP $20.80 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.33 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1156.51 TONNES

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Inventory rests tonight at:

 

APRIL 7 / GLD INVENTORY 1029.05 tonnes

LAST;  1033 TRADING DAYS:   +95.24 TONNES HAVE BEEN ADDED THE GLD

LAST 933 TRADING DAYS// +  279.76TONNES  HAVE NOW  BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY

end

Now the SLV Inventory/(this vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them!)

APRIL 7 /WITH SILVER  UP 3 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 574.868 MILLION OZ. 

APRIL 6/WITH SILVER UP 39 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 256,000 OZ FORM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 574.868 MILLION OZ///

APRIL 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO  CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 575.124 MILLION OZ

APRIL 1.WITH SILVER UP 48 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.898 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 575.124 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 31/WITH SILVER UP 37 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 579.022 MILLION OZ

MARCH 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 62 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A DEPOSIT OF 417,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY REST AT 579.022 MILLION OZ..

MARCH 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 578.605 MILLION OZ.

MARCH 26/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY: TWO HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.042 MILLION OZ AT 3 PM AND ANOTHER AT 5.20 PM:  1.949 MILLION OZ /INVENTORY RESTS AT 578.605 MILLION OZ

MARCH 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.253 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 582.596 MILLION OZ

MARCH 24//WITH SILVER UP 1 CENT TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 585.846 MILLION OZ./

MARCH 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 55 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 585.846 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 50 CENTS TODAY,TWO HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.486 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLVAT 3 PM AND ANOTHER 2.599 MILLION OZ WITHRAWWAL AT 5:20 ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 585.846 MILLION OZ/ (TOTAL SILVER LEAVING 4.085 MILLION OZ)

MARCH 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY REST AT 589.931 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 18/WITH SILVER UP 28 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; AT 3 PM: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.507 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 589.931 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 17/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 592.438 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 592.438 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 15/WITH SILVER UP 35 CENTS TODAY: NO  CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 592.438 MILLION OZ///

MARCH 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 592.438 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 11/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 592.438 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY; ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 928,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 592.438 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 9/WITH SILVER UP 91 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 593.366  MILLION OZ///

MARCH 8/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.25 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 593.366 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 31 CENTS TODAY: TWO HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.501 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV AT 3 PM AND ANOTHER 3.90 MILION OZ AT 5.20..: TOTAL LOSSS 10.4 MILLLLION OZ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 596.616 MILLION OZ

MARCH 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 76 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.486 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 609.017 MILLION OZ

MARCH 3/WITH SILVER DOWN 58 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.774 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 605.531 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 2//WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 609.305 MILLION OZ

MARCH 1.WITH SILVER UP 26 CENTS TODAY:A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.593 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 609.305 MILLION OZ.

FEB 26/WITH SILVER DOWN  $1.17 TODAY: TWO HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.857 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV AT 3 PM//AND ANOTHER 1.858 MILLION OZ AT 5.20 EST//INVENTORY RESTS AT 615.898 MILLION OZ//

FEB 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 619.613 MILLION OZ//

FEB 24/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORIES AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 619.613 MILLION OZ

FEB 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS TODAY: TWO ENTRIES I) HUGE CHANGE ISN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 127,000 OZ INTO THE SLV AND THEN A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 7.801 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 619.613 MILLION OZ

FEB 22/WITH SILVER UP 74 CENTS TODAY: 2 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.322 MILLION OZ AT 3 PM AND 6.873 MILLION OF AT 5 20 PM EST/INVENTORY RESTS AT 611.685 MILLION OZ/

FEB 19//WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 621.007 MILLION OZ//

FEB 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 22 CENTS TODAY : TWO HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.858 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV AN ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL 5.758 MILLION OZ// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 621.007 MILLION OZ//

FEB 17/WITH SILVER UP  1 CENT TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A DEPOSIT OF 83,000 OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 628.623 MILLION OZ//

FEB 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.044 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 628.530 MILLION OZ//

FEB 12/WITH SILVER UP 31 CENTS//A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.312 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 630.574 MILLION OZ.

FEB 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.858 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 634.986 MILLION OZ//

FEB 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 44 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 636.844 MILLION OZ//

FEB 9/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.19 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 17.882 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 636.844 MILLION OZ//

FEB 8/WITH SILVER UP $0.53 TODAY: A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 4.451 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 654.726 MILLION OZ//

XXXXXXXXXXXXXX

SLV INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT

APRIL 7/2021
574.868 MILLION OZ

 
 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i)LAWRIE WILLIAMS:

-END-

OR

EGON VON GREYERZ// 

OR

Peter Schiff..

The Mainstream Is Wrong About Rising Bond Yields And Gold

 
WEDNESDAY, APR 07, 2021 – 08:50 AM

Authored by Michael Maharrey via SchiffGold.com,

Prices are going up. The Federal Reserve is printing money at an unprecedented rate. The US government continues to borrow and spend at a torrid pace. As Peter Schiff put it in a recent podcast, we’re adrift in a sea of inflationGold is supposed to be an inflation hedge. So, why isn’t the price of gold climbing right now?

In a nutshell, rising bond yields have created significant headwinds for gold. And the mainstream is reading rising yields and their relationship to gold all wrong.

It really comes down to expectations. Most people in the mainstream view rising yields as an inflation signal, and they expect the Federal Reserve to respond to this inflationary pressure in a conventional way. They expect the Fed to tighten monetary policy, raise interest rates and shrink its balance sheet.

As Peter Schiff has explained on numerous occasions, this won’t happen. The Fed won’t fight inflation because it can’t. It will ultimately surrender to inflation.

Right now, the markets sense that inflation is going to be moving higher. And maybe even higher than what the Fed is acknowledging. But I think the markets still believe the Fed — that the Fed will be able to contain the inflation problem before it really runs out of control. So, it’s the expectation that the Fed’s going to fight inflation by raising rates — that’s what’s pressuring gold. But the markets are wrong. The Fed is not even going to attempt to fight inflation. It’s going to surrender. Inflation is going to win without a fight. And when the markets realize that the Fed is all bark and no bite, and that inflation is going to be an even bigger problem that is going to be uncontrollable, then the bottom’s going to fall out of the dollar and gold’s going through the roof.”

Given the level of government borrowing and spending, the Fed can’t let rates rise. It would topple this economic house of cards sitting on top of a mountain of debt. You can’t sustain a debt-based economy in a high interest rate environment. And the Fed certainly can’t shrink its balance sheet when the US Treasury is trying to sell trillions of dollars in US Treasuries into a market that is already oversaturated. One of the reasons we’re seeing rising bond yields is because the US government continues to flood the market with Treasuries. It’s a simple supply and demand dynamic. If anything the Fed will have to buy even more Treasuries to keep the bond market propped up. I expect to see additional quantitative easing before we see any kind of tapering or balance sheet reduction.

That means more inflation — not less.

Peter said he doesn’t know if gold has hit its lows yet, but he knows we haven’t seen the highs.

Peter isn’t the only analyst that believes gold’s best days are ahead. Guardian Vaults business development manager John Feeney told Kitco News that he thinks the price of gold could double in the next five years.

One of the main drivers for gold demand is a hedge against inflation,” he said.

“Inflation usually comes about after a rapid increase in the money supply. That’s exactly what we saw in 2020 — an unprecedented expansion of the money supply globally last year.”

Most significantly, Feeny noted that rising bond yields aren’t necessarily a bad sign for gold. In fact, we’ve seen bond yields and the price of gold rise simultaneously before – during the stagflation period in the 1970s.

Between 1972 and 1982, the yield on the 10-year Treasury rose from 6% to 15%.  During that same period, the federal funds rate rose from 5% to 20%. Meanwhile, the price of gold climbed from $50 an ounce to $650 per ounce. Gold saw a better than 1,000% return despite the dramatic rise in bond yields.

Feeny noted, “During the 1970’s President Nixon wanted strong economic growth and low unemployment at any cost and was not concerned about rising inflation. The sharp jump in the money supply is what preceded a runaway inflationary period.”

Sound familiar?

Jerome Powell insists that price inflation isn’t a problem. He tells us any rise in prices will be “transitory.” Much like the policymakers in the 70s, government officials and central bankers are fixated on unemployment and fixing the economy. They don’t care about inflation. Once they realize inflation isn’t “transitory,” it will be too late.

Feeny picked up on the similarities between Nixon and the current regime.

The language that’s been coming out of the Fed lately has been similar to Nixon in the fact that they say that they’re happy to let inflation run above target for a period as well. They’re more concerned about low unemployment and economic growth and less concerned about inflation. The current environment is similar to the 1970s. I feel like it could rise a lot further than what they anticipate and a lot further than what they would like to see.”

Currently, investors seem fixated on rising yields. Feeny said that attitude won’t last once the markets figure out inflation is for real and the Fed had no ability to fight it in a meaningful way.

If we did see inflation running out of control in years to come, there is almost zero risk in owning gold, as it would have an incredibly high percentage chance of performing well under that environment.”

end

Peter Schiff: Biden And Yellen Want To Lead The World To Less Freedom

BY TYLER DURDEN
WEDNESDAY, APR 07, 2021 – 12:15 PM

Via SchiffGold.com,

Janet Yellen gave her first speech as Treasury secretary this week and called on the world to adopt a global minimum corporate tax. Peter Schiff talked about it during a recent podcast. He said He said Yellen’s message to the world reflects a major shift. America once led the world toward freedom. Now the goal seems to be to lead the world to less freedom.

Yellen bemoaned a “30-year race to the bottom” as countries have slashed corporate taxes in order to attack multinational businesses. Of course, the real problem Yellen wants to address is the competitive disadvantage the US will face with the Biden tax increases tucked into his new infrastructure plan.

“It is important to work with other countries to end the pressures of tax competition and corporate tax base erosion,” Yellen said.

The infrastructure plan would hike the US corporate tax rate from 21% to 28%, partially undoing the Trump tax cuts.

In effect, Yellen wants other countries to raise taxes to some global minimum so companies won’t be able to avoid high taxes by shifting operations to more tax-friendly jurisdictions. She wants government collusion. She wants to eliminate tax competition and create a cartel of nations that can price-fix their taxes as high as possible.

Given that the US dollar serves as the reserve currency, the US has a lot of leverage when it comes to pressuring other countries to comply with its wishes.

Peter said Yellen’s message reflects a fundamental change in the message the US sends to the rest of the world.

We’re not this shining city on a hill that Ronald Reagan spoke of. We are not really the leader of the free world. What we’re trying to do is lead the world into diminishing freedom, into being less free because taxes equate to freedom. The more taxes you pay, the less freedom you have. The government takes your money and then you have less. And so what we want is for there to be less freedom and more taxation throughout the world.”

This is the opposite of what America used to be. The United States used to lead the world in low taxes. For nearly 150 years, the US didn’t even have an income tax.

The reason America became so rich and prosperous is because we didn’t have a big government and therefore we didn’t have big taxes to support it. We didn’t have a lot of regulations. We had a lot of freedom, and so we had a lot of prosperity. We had a lot of ingenuity and creativity. The reason that so many people came here is because they could be free.”

Peter said the Biden message to the world is the exact opposite.

We want to go around the world and see countries that are freer than our own because they don’t have taxes as high as ours, and we want to force those nations to become less free in order to make it easier for America to turn up the heat on its own citizens.”

Peter called this a very dangerous and slippery slope. So far, the call is just for a minimum global corporate tax rate. But what’s next? How about a minimum global personal income tax rate? Or a minimum global wealth tax?

Peter said even if you don’t personally take advantage of tax havens, they benefit you because of the competition they create.

The fact that there are a lot of nations that have lower taxes – that is what keeps the nations that have higher taxes from raising them up even more. Governments have to realize that they’re in competition, that capital and people are mobile. And if they tax them too high, they may move to a lower tax jurisdiction. And so those lower tax jurisdictions, even if you’re not personally benefitting from those lower taxes because you haven’t moved there, your taxes are actually lower because of those alternatives.”

If the US is successful in forcing tax havens to raise their taxes so they’ll be less free just like America, it will be easier for the US to raise taxes even higher knowing there is no alternative.

Peter said fortunately, he doesn’t think Yellen’s ploy will work.

A lot of countries aren’t going to want to raise their taxes. They recognize the damage it will do to their economies. They understand that taxation simply shifts resources from the private sector to the government.

The reality is the fewer resources that are consumed by government, the more economic growth they’re going to have. The United States grew far more rapidly during the 19th century than it did during the 20th century. During the 19th century, we had no corporate income tax. We had no personal income tax. But we had much faster economic growth, and the standard of living of the poor and the middle class increased far more rapidly during that century than they did during the 20th when we had all these taxes.”

Peter said when he looks around the world, countries with lower taxes, less government spending, and smaller deficits are more prosperous.

What Janet Yellen wants to impose is the opposite. She wants these countries that are enjoying more economic freedom and greater economic growth than America to change their policy so they have less freedom and slower growth so they’re more like the United States.”

END

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

A good article:  Jim Rickards explains why the banks will initiate a war on cash as we head close to negative interest rates

(Jim Richards/Daily Reckoning/GATA)

Jim Rickards: The next phase of the war on cash

 Section: Daily Dispatches

By James Rickards
The Daily Reckoning, Baltimore
Friday, April 2, 2021

With so much news about an economic reopening, a border crisis, massive government spending, and exploding deficits, it’s easy to overlook the ongoing war on cash.

That’s a mistake because it has serious implications not only for your money but for your privacy and personal freedom, as you’ll see today.

… 

Cash prevents central banks from imposing negative interest rates, because if they did, people would withdraw their cash from the banking system.

If they stuff their cash in a mattress, they don’t earn anything on it. But at least they’re not losing anything on it.

Once all money is digital, you won’t have the option of withdrawing your cash and avoiding negative rates. You will be trapped in a digital pen with no way out. .

 For the remainder of the analysis:

https://dailyreckoning.com/war-on-cash-the-next-phase/

END

Hemke warns us when we buy gold/silver avoid unallocated pool accounts

(Craig Hemke/GATA)

Craig Hemke at Sprott Money: When buying gold and silver, avoid unallocated ‘pool’ accounts

 

 

 Section: Daily Dispatches

 

8:28p ET Tuesday, April 6, 2021

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Writing tonight at Sprott Money, the TF Metals Report’s Craig Hemke notes that buying into the “pool” accounts of coin and bullion dealers defeats the primary purpose of owning monetary metals — security, the certainty that you will have the metal when you need it and won’t get stiffed by another fractional-reserve banking system and its counterparty risk.

… 

Shortages in the fractional-reserve system, Hemke notes, already are causing problems with certain gold and silver dealers.

His analysis is headlined “Undesirable Unallocated Unavailability” and it’s posted at Sprott Money here:

https://www.sprottmoney.com/blog/Undesirable-Unallocated-Unavailability-…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

iii) Other physical stories:

This is huge!! The Hungarian Central Bank has quietly raises its official reserves from 31.5 tonnes to 94.5 tonnes

(WorldEconomicNews)

World economic news:

GOLD/SILVER

MAGYAR NEMZETI BANK TRIPLES HUNGARY’S GOLD RESERVES TO 94.5 TONS

Bearing its long-term national and economic policy strategy objectives closely in mind, the Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB) has raised Hungary’s gold reserves from 31.5 tons to 94.5 tons. Following the decision, the MNB continued the process it started by increasing gold reserves by a factor of ten in 2018. As a result, based on the size of gold reserves, Hungary moved up from the middle of the international list to the top third by March 2021.

In history, gold has fulfilled several functions in different financial systems. Although from a monetary policy perspective, gold lost some of its significance in the 1970s, its role as a traditional reserve asset remained pivotal thereafter. As it carries no credit or counterparty risks, gold facilitates reinforcing trust in a country in all economic environments, which still renders it one of the most crucial reserve assets worldwide, in addition to government bonds. In recent years, the role of gold within international reserves has been enhanced at several central banks. At 656 tons, central banks’ demand for gold reached record highs in 2018 and also in 2019 (669 tons).

Taking into account the country’s long-term national and economic policy strategy objectives, the Magyar Nemzeti Bank decided to triple its gold reserves. Managing new risks arising from the coronavirus pandemic also played a key role in the decision. The appearance of global spikes in government debts or inflation concerns further increase the importance of gold in national strategy as a safe-haven asset and as a store of value. As a result of this decision, the country’s gold reserves have been raised from 31.5 tons to 94.5 tons, which sends Hungary from the 56th position to the 36th position in the international rankings based on the size of gold reserves. In the Central and Eastern European region, its position changed from 6th to 3rd. Gold reserves per capita in Hungary rose from 0.1 ounce to 0.31 ounce. Consequently, currently Hungary has the highest gold reserves per capita in the CEE region.

The Magyar Nemzeti Bank has held gold reserves since its foundation in 1924. The stock of gold reserves had increased until World War II. Towards the end of the war, the MNB rescued gold bars and coins weighing some 30 tons on its legendary ‘gold train’ to Spital am Pyhrn in Austria. The possession of the rescued gold reserves was returned in full to Hungary after the war had ended, which supported the stabilisation of Hungary’s economy and financial consolidation by backing the introduction of the new currency, the forint, which celebrates its 75th anniversary this year. At the time of the political transition, Hungary’s gold reserves were reduced in several steps from 46 tons to 3.1 tons as a result of the decision taken by the Magyar Nemzeti Bank’s management then in office. The gold stock had remained unchanged until 2018.

Based on the long-term national and economic policy strategy objectives, the MNB decided to significantly increase gold reserves first in 2018. Consequently, the stock of gold reserves rose tenfold from its previous level, from 3.1 tons to 31.5 tons in October 2018, reaching gold reserve levels of other CEE countries. With these purchases, the MNB continued the process it started in 2018.

 

 
 
 

Your early WEDNESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED DOWN at 6.5431 /

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.5468   /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 3.34 pts or 0.10%

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 263.94 PTS OR 0.92% 

2. Nikkei closed UP 34.16 POINTS OR  0.12%

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL MIXED /

USA dollar index  UP TO 92.21/Euro RISES TO 1.1894

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. +.10/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 109.80/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

3c Nikkei now JUST ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 59.97 and Brent: 63.28

3f Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE CLOSED DOWN/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO -.33%/Italian 10 Yr bond yield DOWN to 0.68% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.33%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 01.01: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 0.84

3k Gold at $1732.50 silver at: 24.93   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 31/100 in roubles/dollar) 77.67

3m oil into the 59 dollar handle for WTI and 63 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 109.80 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9288 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1047 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to 0.33%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 1.661% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.326%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  DOWN  TO 8.18..

Futures Flat Ahead Of FOMC Minutes

 
WEDNESDAY, APR 07, 2021 – 07:43 AM

Global stocks were stuck in a holding pattern on Wednesday at record high levels, with US equity futures unchanged from Tuesday’s close, as investors awaited details of the latest FOMC minutes. The 10-year Treasury yield reversed an earlier loss, while the dollar paused after a four-day slide.

While COVID case numbers rose in several parts of the world and geopolitical tensions between China and Taiwan and between Russia and Ukraine ensured it was by no means a fairytale, markets had a Goldilocks feel again with MSCI’s 50-country world index grinding out a sixth day of gains. Futures on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 fluctuated after the underlying gauges retreated overnight as volume on U.S. exchanges dwindled below 10 billion shares for the first time this year.

The IMF raised its global growth forecast to 6% this year from 5.5% on Tuesday, reflecting a rapidly brightening outlook for the U.S. economy. If realized, that would be the fastest the world economy has grown since 1976, albeit after the steepest annual downturn of the post-war era last year when the COVID pandemic brought commerce to a near stand-still at times. “Even with high uncertainty about the path of this pandemic, a way out of this health economic crisis is increasingly visible,” IMF Chief Economist Gita Gopinath said.

Expectations for continued central-bank support and the strongest world expansion in at least four decades have driven stock benchmarks to unprecedented heights. Concerns about higher borrowing costs destabilizing the market have eased, with bond yields subsiding as traders pull their more-aggressive positioning for Fed policy tightening. Minutes of the last Fed rates meeting later Wednesday may provide more clues on the outlook.

“We continue to expect equity prices and U.S. long-term yields to increase further over the coming months, as real growth and inflation data picks up especially in the U.S.,” said Xavier Chapard, a global macro strategist at Credit Agricole SA. “In the short term they could remain range-bound as a lot of good news is in the prices.”

The Stoxx Europe 600 index edged lower 0.1% one day after hitting an all time high. The Stoxx 600 Technology Index falls as much as 1.2%, retreating after reaching the highest level in more than 20 years on Tuesday, with chip equipment makers pausing and high-flying pandemic winners also lower. Here are some of the biggest European movers today courtesy of Bloomberg:

  • EDF shares surge as much as 10% following a report that the French government could spend EU10b on buying out minority shareholders. Given the current state-ownership level, the EU10b figure would suggest a price for minority holders of almost EU20/share, Citi wrote in a note.
  • Carnival jumps as much as 4.8% after the sector is boosted by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention saying cruises could resume by mid-summer with restrictions. In a statement Tuesday before the CDC update, Carnival Cruise Line said it may have “no choice” but to move ships outside of U.S. ports.
  • Atos rises as much as 4.8%, recouping some of its 14% slump over the past two sessions, as Exane pondered the scenario of a deal with French IT services peer Capgemini. The broker wrote that Atos and Capgemini valuations are “at extremes,” and Atos’s struggling share price suggests investors could be open to an “alternative strategic solution.”
  • Prosus declinee as much as 5.1% after the internet investor said it would reduce its stake in Chinese online giant Tencent to just under 29% from 31% through a share sale that will raise as much as $14.6b.
  • Flutter Entertainment falls as much as 3.9% following a share placing at a discount to Tuesday’s close. Drop also comes after Fox was reported to have filed a suit against the gaming company over its stake in FanDuel.
  • Amundi SA gained as much as 3.3% after agreeing to buy Societe Generale SA’s fund management arm Lyxor.

As Bloomberg shows, validating the bullish European picture, profit upgrades are outpacing cuts by the most since 2010.

Earlier in the session, MSCI’s index of Asia-Pacific shares had started on a firm footing, going as high as 208.46 points, a level last seen on March 18. However, it succumbed to selling pressure and ended flat as China’s blue-chip CSI300 index dipped 1% and Hong Kong eased 0.9%. Eventually, Asian stocks were little changed overall as Thailand and Hong Kong led declines while most major equity benchmarks advanced. By sector, communications services firms were the biggest drag on the MSCI Asia Pacific Index while gains in materials makers provided support.

Geopolitical tensions in the region added to the jitters. Taiwan’s foreign minister said on Wednesday it will fight to the end if China attacks, adding that the United States saw a danger that this could happen amid mounting Chinese military pressure, including aircraft carrier drills, near the island. Other Asian markets managed to stay positive. Japan’s Nikkei closed higher; Australian shares rose 0.6% and South Korea’s KOSPI added 0.3%.

Chinese stocks dropped for a second session, dragged lower by liquor firms after a popular fund reduced its stake in a distiller.
The benchmark CSI 300 Index fell 0.7% to close at 5,103.74 points, the lowest in a week. The decline added to a 0.4% drop on Tuesday after the gauge posted its biggest weekly gain since mid-February last week. Sichuan Swellfun fell 3.8%, extending its two-day decline to 6.2%, after the E Fund Small and Mid Cap Fund, managed by star manager Zhang Kun, trimmed its holdings to just 0.6% of total shares outstanding, according to regulatory filings. That compares with 2.9% at the end of 2020. The shift comes after one of Zhang’s funds returned 95% last year largely due to bets on baijiu makers, a strategy that drew a large investor following. Peers of the firm also fell, including Kweichow Moutai’s 3.1% loss, the most in a month. Meanwhile, Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao dropped by at least 4.9%. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index in Hong Kong dropped, with heavyweights including China Pacific Insurance and Tencent Holdings among those contributing most to the fall.

Thailand’s key SET Index posted its biggest drop since Feb. 22 amid a domestic surge in coronavirus infections. Hotel and restaurant shares led the decline, with Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-Ocha hinting that tougher restrictions on entertainment venues were likely in an effort to fight the virus spread.

Equity markets in India, the Philippines and New Zealand advanced, among others, with some global stock benchmarks hovering around all-time highs. Indian stocks climbed after central bank policy makers pledged to maintain an accommodative stance for as long as necessary, amid a new wave of coronavirus infections.  India’s central bank announced it would buy one trillion rupees of govt bonds in the secondary market during the fiscal year that began on April 1 under an acquisition program, the Reserve Bank of India Governor Shaktikanta Das said.

The S&P BSE Sensex climbed 0.9% to 49,661.76 in Mumbai, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index advanced by a similar magnitude. All but one of 19 sector sub-indexes compiled by BSE Ltd. gained, led by a gauge of automobile makers. The Reserve Bank of India monetary policy committee held the benchmark repurchase rate at a record low of 4% — a decision predicted by all 30 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The central bank also pledged to buy 1 trillion rupees ($13.5 billion) of bonds this quarter to cap borrowing costs and support an economy facing a resurgence of coronavirus infections. “This will have a trickle-down effect on other instruments, including stocks,” said Deepak Jasani, head of retail research at HDFC Securities Ltd. A new wave of Covid cases has prompted the return of localized lockdowns in a number of key states, raising concerns over business recovery. India crossed 100,000 new daily infections on Sunday, with wealthiest state Maharashtra emerging as the epicenter. “Localized and regional lockdowns could dampen the recent improvement in demand conditions and delay the return of normalcy,” RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said.

In rates, Treasury futures held small gains, leaving yields slightly richer across the curve vs Tuesday’s close. 10-year yields hovered around 1.65%, lower by less than 1bp, trailing bunds and gilts by ~1bp; gilts saw duration demand from real-money accounts. Minutes of March 17 FOMC meeting, slated for 2pm ET release, will be searched for any commentary on tapering, as markets continue to price in an earlier start to rate hikes than Fed policy makers project. The five-year Treasury yield especially is seen as a major barometer of the faith investors have in the Fed’s message that it doesn’t expect to raise U.S. interest rates until 2024. Europe’s bond yields also eased, with southern European debt markets stabilising after a selloff the previous session as traded braced for a 50-year bond from Italy. The European Central Bank meanwhile will release monthly data on its conventional asset purchases and a bi-monthly breakdown of its PEPP pandemic emergency bond purchases which it has vowed to increase to keep borrowing costs low.

FX markets also saw subdued trading, with the dollar traded mixed versus G-10 peers and most pairs trading in narrow ranges. The euro hovered in a 30 pips range versus the dollar. The pound steadied after falling to its lowest level versus the dollar since April 1 amid concerns over the U.K.’s vaccine rollout. Australian and New Zealand dollars led G-10 losses as the greenback strengthened but remained within recent ranges; the Aussie had earlier inched higher after the IMF boosted its forecast for Australia’s GDP to 4.5% this year.

“A large share of the hopes of a U.S. growth boom supported by state aid and rapid vaccination progress has already been priced in,” Commerzbank FX and EM analyst Esther Reichelt wrote in a note to clients. “Further and more pronounced USD gains would only be justified if this boom also caused rising inflation rates to which the Fed would have to react with higher interest rates.”

In commodities, Brent crude futures were nudging lower at $62.67 a barrel. U.S. crude was up at $59.51 and both gold and copper were off at $1,736.4 an ounce and 8,980 a tonne respectively.

Looking at today’s calendar, all eyes will be on minutes of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s March policy meeting when they are published later. The upcoming earnings season is expected to show S&P profit growth of 24.2% from a year earlier, according to Refinitiv data, and investors will be watching to see whether corporate results further confirm recent positive economic data.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures little changed at 4,065.25
  • STOXX Europe 600 little changed at 435.41
  • MXAP little changed at 207.18
  • MXAPJ down 0.3% to 691.53
  • Nikkei up 0.1% to 29,730.79
  • Topix up 0.7% to 1,967.43
  • Hang Seng Index down 0.9% to 28,674.80
  • Shanghai Composite little changed at 3,479.63
  • Sensex up 1.1% to 49,761.51
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.6% to 6,928.02
  • Kospi up 0.3% to 3,137.41
  • Brent Futures down 0.5% to $62.43/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.4% to $1,737.15
  • U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 92.29
  • German 10Y yield fell 1.2 bps to -0.328%
  • Euro little changed at $1.1887

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • The ECB would be able to start unwinding its emergency bond- buying program if the economy develops in line with expectations, Governing Council member Klaas Knot told Reuters in an interview
  • Germany, Italy, Spain and Ireland all saw business activity rise last month and France halted its contraction, according to IHS Markit’s latest survey of purchasing managers
  • Billionaire investor Mike Novogratz said he’s bought Facebook Inc. stock to benefit from crypto’s ascent and is also shorting the five-year Treasury as a hedge against policy makers pulling back monetary support
  • Rising demand for everything from soybeans to steel has sent the cost of hauling dry goods soaring more than 50% this year
  • The Swedes are learning that their once pioneering vision for a central bank digital currency might take a lot longer to enact than initially thought.

A quick look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asian equity markets traded mixed following on from the flat performance on Wall St where most major indices consolidated after recently hitting fresh record highs and with a lack of solid macro drivers, as well as the looming FOMC Minutes ensuring a non-committal tone. ASX 200 (+0.6%) was positive as outperformance in real estate, gold miners and tech kept the index afloat but with gains limited by pressure in industrials and the largest-weighted financials sector, while Nikkei 225 (+0.1%) briefly gave back its early gains as the index succumbed to the JPY strength although there was also plenty of focus on Toshiba shares which were so far untraded with a glut of buy orders after reports of a USD 20bln buyout proposal from CVC Capital. KOSPI (+0.3%) remained positive following preliminary earnings from Samsung Electronics which reported Q1 operating profit rose 44% Y/Y to KRW 9.3tln as expected and with LG Electronics topping forecasts for its preliminary quarterly operating profit and revenue. However, the gains were only marginal as concerns of a 4th wave of the pandemic were stoked after daily infections increased by the most in three months and with by-elections taking place in Seoul and Busan which are a bellwether for next year’s Presidential Elections. Hang Seng (-0.9%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.1%) were subdued after continued PBoC liquidity inaction and with the former suffering from holiday blues on return from the extended weekend as it gets its first opportunity to digest the recent reports of the PBoC instructing banks to curtail lending. Finally, 10yr JGBs were flat as they took a breather from yesterday’s gains but with prices kept afloat by the flimsy picture in Japanese stocks and with the BoJ also present in the market for JPY 710bln of JGBs with the majority in the belly, while it also offered to buy JPY 125bln of corporate bonds with 1yr-3yr maturities from April 12th.

Top Asian News

  • SoftBank-Backed Policybazaar Said to Plan IPO Filing Next Month
  • Australia Opposition Urges Review of RBA, Fiscal-Monetary Policy
  • China Vows to Hold Successful Olympics, Dismisses Boycott Threat
  • Steel’s Storming Rally Pauses as China Steps Up Mill Scrutiny

European equities have maintained the mixed picture portrayed at the cash open (Euro Stoxx 50 -0.1%) following the similar performance seen in APAC markets. US equity futures meanwhile remain contained in sideways trade with the RTY narrowly lagging peers, although the depth of the price action is shallow as participants await upcoming catalysts. Back to Europe, a snapshot of the bourses’ performances sees the core markets faring better than the periphery, with the UK’s FTSE 100 (+0.8%) outpacing peers with the early aid of a softer sterling, whilst heavyweight BP (+2.7%) and mining giants continue to underpin the index. The SMI meanwhile resides in the red as pharma behemoths Novartis (-1%) and Roche (-0.8%) keep upside capped – with the former weighed on by a cancer research deal with Artios whereby the Co. will pay as much as USD 20mln initially but this could rise to a ceiling of USD 1.3bln. Subsequently, the downside in the Cos is exerting pressure on the broader healthcare sector which stands as the underperformer thus far. Sectors, in general, are mixed with no clear cyclical/defensive bias. Tech stands as the laggard despite favourable yield play and light news flow, with potential follow-through emanating from earning updates via Samsung Electronics and LG Electronics which saw both companies weaker in the aftermath. Elsewhere, the Real Estate sector is propped up as UK housing names are faring well – with Persimmon (+3%), Taylor Wimpey (+2.9%), and Barratt Developments (+2.0%) all towards the top of the UK benchmark. Travel & Leisure meanwhile continues to bear the brunt of lockdown woes, albeit Carnival (+4.3%) bucks the trend ahead of results despite extending its pause in cruises from US ports. In terms of individual movers, EDF (+8.5%) is bolstered by reports that the French state (cited by union sources) reportedly said the buyback of shares in EDF, held by minority shareholders, is seen at EUR 10bln in restructuring project. On the flip side Flutter Entertainment (-3.0%) trades at the foot of the Stoxx 600 as Fox filed an arbitration claim against the Co. as part of a dispute over the FanDuel platform. Shell (+0.5%) sees some modest gains following its Q1 update, whereby the giant said Adjusted Earnings are expected to be positive in Q1, but the Texas deep freeze and adverse currency effects are seen knocking off some USD 240mln from earnings. Finally, Credit Suisse (-0.6%) is back under pressure as sources close to Credit Suisse said the group not ruling out further management alterations as a result of the Archegos situation, Furthermore, reports state that the Co. could report losses related to Greensill of some CHF 1.4bln.

Top European News

  • Italy Is Said to Be Under Pressure to Delay Euronext-Borsa Deal
  • France Pushes Back Against Mooted $12 Billion EDF Delisting
  • Polish Coalition May Collapse Over EU Plan, Kaczynski Says
  • Euro-Area Companies Return to Broad Growth on Vaccine Optimism

In FX, the Pound has been in the spotlight again and under pressure as Cable retreated through 1.3800 amidst what looked like further short covering and technical retracement in Eur/Gbp rather than anything negative or bearish for Sterling specifically. Indeed, the cross extended its rebound to circa 150 pips from Monday’s low before petering out around 0.8624 and ahead of several recent tops from late March below 0.8650 that could be pivotal in terms of the overall bear trend that has seen Eur/Gbp decline from 0.9085 on January 6 having already fallen sharply from 0.9230 less than a month before that (December 11 to be precise). Meanwhile, Cable met some underlying bids into 1.3770 and above a pivot point at 1.3760 that is guarding 1.3750 ahead of the April 1 base just below, and is back on the 1.3800 handle irrespective of minor downward tweaks to the final UK services and composite PMIs.

  • AUD/CAD/NZD/DXY – The non-US Dollars are bearing the brunt of relative stability in the Greenback and some other factors, like a worrying 3rd COVID-19 wave spreading across Canada and wavering risk sentiment amidst ongoing uncertainty over the AZN vaccine, but with the Aussie also unwinding some of its gains vs the Kiwi and Loonie treading cautiously into trade data plus Ivey PMIs. Aud/Usd and Nzd/Usd are both still pivoting half round numbers at 0.7650 and 0.7050 respectively, but Aud/Nzd has lost a bit of momentum after reaching 1.0875 and Usd/Cad is probing 1.2600 following no breach of the big figure below since March 22. However, the Buck remains mixed overall and the index is capped below 92.500 awaiting US data, FOMC minutes and Fed speakers within a 92.413-246 range that also incorporates potentially key chart levels in the form of 200 and 21 DMAs (at 92.380 and 92.304).
  • CHF/EUR/JPY – All narrowly mixed vs the Dollar, but the Franc marginally outperforming either side of 0.9300 as the Euro tests technical resistance at 1.1889 (200 DMA) in wake of broadly firmer than forecast and/or flash Eurozone services and composite PMIs plus hawkish-leaning PEPP talk from ECB’s Knot, and the Yen slips back after running out of steam into 109.50. At this stage, decent option expiry interest in Eur/Usd and Usd/Jpy looks too far from spot to influence direction, but for the record 1.1 bn rolls off at the 1.1850 strike, 1.2 bn between 1.1835-30 and 1.4 bn at 109.00.
  • EM – No respite for the Rub via latest RIA reports quoting the Foreign Ministry stating that Russia and the US are in talks about the former taking part in a climate summit, while the Try remains weak despite a dip in oil prices after Turkey’s opposition leader urged President Erdogan to call a snap election, according to Al Arabiya, and regardless of the latter expressing a determination to get CPI back down to sub-10%. Elsewhere, the Inr emerged softer following the RBI’s anticipated on hold rate verdicts as it also maintained an accommodative stance and extended its on tap TLTRO by a further 6 months and provided an extra Inr 500 bn in liquidity to all domestic financial institutions for new loans.

In commodities, WTI and Brent front month futures have seen a choppy session thus far after giving up APAC gains and some more in early European hours before reversing ahead of the US entrance, with the benchmarks currently firmer to the tune of 0.7% apiece at the time of writing at around USD 59.75/bbl (vs low 58.80/bbl) and USD 63.20/bbl (vs high 62.20/bbl). There have not been any specific headlines to drive price action although participants continue to weigh the recent fundamental drivers; namely, OPEC and COVID among others. Aside from the ongoing COVID-related demand risks, the supply-side sees uncertainty on the Iranian front as nuclear deal talks are underway this week following the first round of talks yesterday – which seemed to be sanguine, although Iran sticks to its stance that key sanctions need to be lifted for any developments. Talks are poised to resume on Friday with eyes on any potential rollback of Iranian sanctions, namely oil-related – although this is not expected. Moving on, the EIA STEO yesterday raised its 2021 world oil demand growth forecast by 180k BPD and cut the 2022 world oil demand growth forecast by 180k BPD, whilst also cutting US production forecasts for both years. Yesterday also saw the release of the weekly Private Inventory data, which showed a larger-than-expected draw in the headline figure, however, refined products saw large builds – traders will be eyeing the DoE’s today with the headline forecasting a draw of 1.436mln bbls. Elsewhere, spot gold and silver are uneventful within recent ranges around USD 1,740/oz and USD 25/oz respectively as Dollar action is tracked. Turning to base metals, LME copper is softer and back below USD 9,000/t with traders citing rising inventories alongside softening demand in China. Dalian iron ore meanwhile closed the session higher by almost 2% with follow-through from record steel prices cited as a factor despite the recent curbs in China’s top steel-making city of Tangshan. On this front, the city’s government has asked domestic steel mills to conduct environmental assessments related to the production and processes, and mills who are unable to do so may face production halts or fines.

US Event Calendar

  • 7am: April MBA Mortgage Applications, prior -2.2%
  • 8:30am: Feb. Trade Balance, est. -$70.5b, prior -$68.2b
  • 2pm: March FOMC Meeting Minutes
  • 3pm: Feb. Consumer Credit, est. $2.8b, prior – $1.32b

Central Banks

  • 9am: Fed’s Evans Discusses Economic Outlook
  • 11am: Fed’s Kaplan Takes Part in Panel Discussion
  • 12pm: Fed’s Barkin Discusses Monetary Policy and the Economy
  • 1pm: Fed’s Daly Discusses U.S. Economic Outlook
  • 2pm: March FOMC Meeting Minutes

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Although it was a pretty quiet day in terms of newsflow, the momentum behind risk assets largely continued for the most part over the last 24 hours, as investors continued to bet on an economic rebound over the coming months in light of the very strong data in recent weeks. Equity indices remained around their recent record highs, with the S&P 500 reaching a new intraday high in spite of a late selloff that saw the index close down -0.10% to record its first loss in four session. Furthermore, as Europe caught up following Monday’s holiday, the STOXX 600 (+0.70%) surpassed its previous all-time high back in February 2020, and the MSCI World index (+0.11%) similarly hit a new record. And on top of all that, equity volatility continued to remain subdued around its lowest levels since the pandemic began, while Bloomberg’s index of US financial conditions eased to its most accommodative level since late-2018.

While those data points would all suggest some pretty benign conditions right now as equities hover around record highs, it’s worth pointing out a note from DB’s Binky Chadha and our asset allocation team from earlier this week, who write that they’re expecting a significant consolidation in equities (-6% to -10%) as growth peaks over the next 3 months (link here).Historically speaking, the team’s report notes how equities have traded closely with indicators of cyclical macro growth such as the ISMs, which in turn typically peak around a year after the recession ends, so around the point we now appear to be. So although they expect equities to continue to be well-supported by the acceleration in macro growth over the very near term, they expect that pullback as growth peaks in the next few months, before equities rally back once again towards the end of the year given our baseline for a Goldilocks economic outlook of strong growth and contained inflation pressures.

Looking back at yesterday’s moves in more depth, the small pullback in US equities was fairly subdued overall, as the S&P 500 and Dow Jones (-0.29%) only saw modest declines from Monday’s record high. Tech stocks outperformed slightly, with the NASDAQ closing just a touch better than the broader S&P, with a -0.05% loss, while semiconductors & semiconductor equipment (-1.11%) were the worst-performing of the S&P’s 24 industry groups. The exception to this were the megacap tech stocks however, and the NYSE FANG+ (+0.65%) outperformed in its 7th successive advance, even if this still leaves the index nearly 8% down from its peak in mid-February. Banks (-0.23%) were another laggard, and were under pressure against the backdrop of further declines in Treasury yields, even as this proved supportive for the broader equity market. And the underlying strength in a consumer-led economic recovery was still seen as consumer services (+1.37%), consumer durables (+0.83%) and food & beverages (+0.53%) were among the best performing industry groups.

Compared to equities, sovereign bonds saw a much more divergent performance on either side of the Atlantic, although again this could in part be explained by Europe not being open on Monday. Yields on 10yr Treasuries fell -4.4bps to 1.656%, their lowest closing level in almost two weeks, and the bulk of this decline could be explained by lower inflation expectations (-3.8bps) rather than real rates (-0.7bps). For Europe it was a different story however, as yields on 10yr bunds (+1.2bps), OATs (+1.8bps) and BTPs (+6.2bps) all moved higher, and in the reverse of the US, inflation expectations were driving the move higher. 10yr German, Italian and Spanish breakevens all rose to their highest closing levels since 2018, and yesterday saw 5y5y forward inflation swaps for the Euro Area rise another +1.5bps, putting them at 1.56%, their highest level since early 2019.

Overnight in Asia, markets are a bit directionless this morning given the subdued newsflow with the Hang Seng (-0.65%) and Shanghai Comp (-0.53%) losing ground while the Nikkei (+0.28%), Kospi (+0.24%) and Asx (+0.42%) have all moved higher. In addition, the Reserve Bank of India announced that they’d be keeping their repo rate unchanged at 4%, in line with expectations. Elsewhere, futures are indicating that US and European indices will continue to hover around their recent records, with those on the S&P (+0.04%) pointing to a small gain, while in Europe those on the Stoxx 50 (-0.13%) and Dax (-0.10%) are indicating a modest pullback.

Oil prices rebounded somewhat yesterday as Iran described the first round of talks in Vienna on restoring the 2015 nuclear deal had been “constructive”. However, the main Iranian negotiator Abbas Araghchi said that Iran had rejected a proposal from the US to release $1bn of frozen Iranian oil revenues that would be offered in return for the suspension of production of 20% enriched uranium. A European official noted that it is important that some level of progress was made prior to the end of May, given a 90-day deadline that Iran and International Atomic Energy Agency agreed to in late February which allowed the continuity of inspections data. Diplomats will be meeting again to continue the talks on Friday. Elsewhere in crude, the US Energy Information Administration cut their oil production forecast to 11.04mn barrels/day this year – down from last month’s forecast of 11.15mn. Production will still be increasing modestly year-over-year however.This comes just as OPEC+ has indicated they will turn back on their taps by rolling back cuts over the coming months. After all the news flow, Brent Crude rose +0.95% and WTI rose +1.16%.

Turning to the pandemic, the main news yesterday was that President Biden announced that the new deadline for states to make all adults eligible for Covid-19 vaccinations is April 19th. This is two weeks earlier than previously planned, yet all but two states are already set to meet that timeline. California is currently planning on fully reopen their economy – the largest in the US – as of June 15 as long as the conditions continue to improve and vaccination rates remain high. On the topic of vaccinations, the White House again came out against any sort of “vaccine passport” issued by the federal government, nothing that they did not want them “used against people unfairly.” However Press Secretary Psaki noted that the administration will be circulating guidance for private-sector solutions that have been floated.

On the AstraZeneca vaccine, the EMA said that their ongoing review should be finalised by tomorrow, and we also heard that a trial of the AstraZeneca shot in children ages 6-17 has been paused while a review by the UK’s MHRA takes place on the blood clot incidents, although Oxford noted that no safety issues arose in the children’s trial so far. Staying here in the UK, the 7-day average of confirmed cases fell to 3,256, which is its lowest since mid-September, back when the levels of testing were a fraction of their current levels, and the country is also set to begin the rollout of the Moderna vaccine today. Nevertheless, Prime Minister Johnson said that it is not yet clear that non-essential travel will be allowed to resume safely by May 17 and the UK government asked Britons to wait a little while longer on planning foreign travel over the summer holidays. Finally in emerging markets, the newsflow was rather less positive, with India seeing a record 115,736 cases, and in Brazil a record number of daily fatalities were reported, at 4,195.

Yesterday saw the IMF release their latest World Economic Outlook, in which they upgraded their global growth forecast for 2021 to +6.0% (vs. +5.5% in January), along with their 2022 forecast to +4.4% (vs. +4.2% in Jan). Both the advanced and emerging market economies saw upgrades, though it was the advanced economies that saw the bulk of the upward revisions, with the US forecast for the next 2 years now at +6.4% in 2021 and +3.5% in 2022 (vs. +5.1% and +2.5% in Jan respectively). Their inflation forecasts saw modest upgrades too, with their forecasts now seeing consumer prices in the advanced economies rising by +1.6% in 2021 and +1.7% in 2022.

In terms of other data out yesterday, US job openings rose to a 2-year high of 7.367m in February, well above the 6.9m reading expected, while the quits rate that is typically a good leading indicator for wage growth remained steady at 2.3%. The other main release came from the Euro Area, where the unemployment rate for February remained at an upwardly-revised 8.3% (vs. 8.1% expected).

To the day ahead now, and data releases include the March services and composite PMIs from Europe, along with US February data on the trade balance and consumer credit. From central banks, the main highlight will be the release of the FOMC’s minutes from their March meeting, though there’ll also be remarks from the Fed’s Evans, Kaplan, Barkin and Daly.

end

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)TUESDAY MORNING/ MONDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 3.34 PTS OR .10%   //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 263.94 PTS OR 0.41%     /The Nikkei closed UP 34.16 POINTS OR 1.30%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.61%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN AT 6.5413 /Oil UP TO 59.97 dollars per barrel for WTI and 63.28 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MIXED //  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.5413. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.5468   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

NORTH KOREA//USA/

END

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

END

3 C CHINA

CHINA TAIWAN

Beijing accelerates its timeline for possible invasion of Taiwan according to this expert

(Fang/Epoch Times)

Beijing Accelerating Timeline For Possible Invasion Of Taiwan, Expert Warns

 
TUESDAY, APR 06, 2021 – 09:45 PM

Authored by Frank Fang via The Epoch Times,

The Chinese communist regime is accelerating its plans to invade Taiwan, an expert warns, as Beijing ratchets up military maneuvers against the island.

Twenty Chinese military aircraft – including four nuclear-capable H-6K bombers, 10 J-16 fighter jets, two Y-8 anti-submarine warfare aircraft, and a KJ-500 airborne early warning and control aircraft – entered Taiwan’s air defense identification zone (ADIZ) on March 26, according to Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense. It was the largest incursion ever reported by the ministry.

Taiwan’s ADIZ, located adjacent to the island’s territorial airspace, is an area where incoming planes must identify themselves to the island’s air traffic controller.

The incursion caps off a significant increase in hostility by Beijing against Taiwan since 2020. Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen, re-elected last January, has taken a hard line against threats posed by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), while the island has deepened its cooperation with the United States—prompting the regime to escalate its warmongering towards the island.

The CCP sees Taiwan as a part of its territory and has threatened war to bring the island under its fold. The self-ruled island is in reality a de-facto independent country with its own democratically-elected government, military, constitution, and currency.

The Republic of China (ROC)—Taiwan’s official name—overthrew China’s Qing Dynasty emperor in 1911. After the ROC retreated to Taiwan upon being defeated by the CCP during the Chinese Civil War, the CCP established a communist state called the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in 1949, while Taiwan gradually transitioned to become a democracy. But to this day, the Chinese regime has refused to recognize Taiwan’s sovereignty.

Last year, the Chinese air force flew about 380 sorties into Taiwan’s ADIZ, the highest number in a given year since 1996. So far this year, the Chinese military has been sending aircraft into the ADIZ on a near-daily basis.

The island’s coast guard on April 1 announced that Beijing has been flying unmanned drones near Taiwan’s Dongsha Island, located in the northern part of the South China Sea. The authority said it could not rule out that Beijing was using the drones to carry out reconnaissance.

Alongside military actions, the regime has sharpened its rhetoric towards the island. Earlier this year, a Chinese defense spokesperson threatened war against Taiwan if it declared independence.

On March 31, Hu Xijin, editor-in-chief of hawkish state-run media Global Times, wrote on his social media, that he would like to order able-bodied men to go blow up bunkers in Taiwan in the event of war.

An unnamed Chinese pilot, who flew one of the Chinese aircraft crossing into Taiwan’s ADIZ on March 29, said, “This is all ours” after being asked to leave the airspace by the pilot of a Taiwanese interceptor aircraft, according to local media, who obtained a recording of the pilot’s remark from the Facebook page “Southwest Airspace of TW.”

Preparing to Invade

Beijing’s incursions are part of a series of dry runs in preparation for an invasion of Taiwan, John Mills, the former director of cybersecurity policy, strategy, and international affairs at the Office of the Secretary of Defense, told The Epoch Times.

Mills projects that these exercises could culminate in a large-scale dry run in the next two years. These dry runs are necessary, Mills said, given the complexity of amphibious landing operations—as well as how the Chinese military has never conducted a forced landing on a hostile power in a real-life situation before.

Any amphibious assault on Taiwan may also involve swarms of Chinese civilian merchant vessels and fishing boats, Mills said.

He believes that an invasion could come in the next three years—much earlier than the six-year estimate given by U.S. Adm. Philip Davidson, head of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command (INDOPACOM), during a congressional hearing in early March.

“If they haven’t done in 10 years, I think [Chinese leader] Xi [Jinping] will probably have been removed from office. I think even six years is pushing it,” Mills said. He added that Xi could come under pressure to attack Taiwan to deflect attention away from internal problems, such as an economic crisis.

U.S. Adm. John Aquilino, the nominee to replace Davidson as head of INDOPACOM, at his confirmation hearing in March declined to endorse Davidson’s six-year estimate, but said the threat of a Chinese invasion is “much closer to us than most think.”

This point was echoed by former national security advisor H.R. McMaster, who in March said that Xi believes “he has a fleeting window of opportunity that’s closing” in relation to attacking Taiwan. McMaster said the period from 2022 onward marks the time “of greatest danger” to Taiwan, noting that this coincides with after the conclusion of the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics.

But right now, the Chinese military is still not ready for an attack against the island, Mills said. The problem is, however, that the longer it waits to invade, the more ready and fortified Taiwan will be.

“We all need to be aware of and be ready for an acceleration of these timelines,” Mills warned.

Beijing’s Taiwan ambitions stem primarily from its desire to get its hands on the island’s semiconductor-making capability, according to Mills. Taiwan is home to TSMC, the world’s largest contract chipmaker.

China is heavily dependent on foreign semiconductors—tiny chips that power everything from cellphones to missiles. According to Bloomberg, China imported $380 billion-worth of chips in 2020, accounting for about 18 percent of all its imports.

The regime is now struggling to secure foreign semiconductors following a series of sanctions slapped on Chinese companies by the Trump administration. U.S. sanctions have crippled the smartphone business of Chinese tech giant Huawei. Chinese chipmaker SMIC has also been put on a trade blacklist.

Hitting Back at US

Soong Hseik-wen, a professor at the Institute of Strategic and International Affairs (ISIA) of Taiwan’s National Chung Cheng University (NCCU), told The Epoch Times that the Chinese regime was making a statement with its incursion on March 26, in response to actions by the U.S. government in March.

These events included President Joe Biden’s first summit with Quad leaders from Australia, India, and Japan; the meeting in Tokyo between Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin, and their Japanese counterparts; and the Sino-U.S. talks in Anchorage, Alaska, according to Soong.

“These three events showed that there are structural conflicts between China and the United States, and they cannot be resolved through diplomatic negotiations,” he said.

The two-day talks in Anchorage were marked by heated exchanges on March 18, during which the CCP’s top diplomat Yang Jiechie lashed out at U.S. foreign and trade policies, and over what he said was the United States’ struggling democracy and poor treatment of minorities.

The meeting highlighted how far apart the Chinese regime and United States are on critical issues, as the Chinese delegation rejected U.S. concerns about Beijing’s human rights abuses in Xinjiang, its crackdown on freedoms in Hong Kong, and its intimidation of Taiwan, on the grounds that they were China’s “internal affairs.”

Viewing U.S. actions as escalating efforts to confront the regime, Beijing decided to flex its military muscle by sending a large aircraft squadron into Taiwan’s ADIZ on March 26, Soong said.

A bilateral agreement on coast guard cooperation between Taiwan and the United States—signed the day before the incursion—may have played into Beijing’s plan to take military action against Taiwan on March 26, Soong added. The agreement, he said, was a clear attempt to push back against Beijing after it passed a law in January to allow its coast guard to fire on foreign ships if needed.

With the agreement, the U.S. government was “explicitly saying” that the coast guard would also be a part of its maritime strategy to secure peace and stability in the region, Soong said.

China’s coast guard law has drawn widespread concern from its neighbors, including Japanthe PhilippinesTaiwan, and Vietnam.

On March 28, U.S. Ambassador to Palau John Hennessey-Nilan arrived in Taiwan as part of a Palau delegation headed by President Surangel Whipps. Palau is one of Taiwan’s 15 diplomatic allies.

Soong suggested that Beijing could have received intelligence of the U.S. ambassador’s visit to Taiwan, which would have prompted Beijing to show its disapproval, since the visit marked the first time a sitting U.S. diplomat has traveled to Taiwan since Washington ended diplomatic ties in favor of Beijing in 1979.

Kelly Craft, former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nation, was originally going to visit Taiwan in mid-January, before her trip was canceled at the last minute.

Defending Taiwan

In the face of an escalating military threat from China, Mills said the Biden administration should adopt an unambiguous policy of deterrence towards the CCP. Specifically, Mills said the United States should have a visible navy and air force presence around Taiwan, as well as in the East China Sea and the South China Sea.

Boosting Taiwan’s self-defense capability is also important, and the Biden administration should sell the island any weapons that it asks for, in accordance with the Taiwan Relations Act, according to Mills. Under the legislation, the United States is obliged to supply the island with weapons needed for its self-defense.

Finally, the Pacific Deterrence Initiative (PDI) created under the fiscal 2021 Pentagon spending bill, would also be vital for U.S. forces in defending the region, Mills added. The PDI, akin to the European Deterrence Initiative, is aimed at securing advanced military capabilities to deter China’s military threats in the Indo-Pacific region.

To defend against a possible invasion, Taiwan “can never have enough ammunition,” Mills said, adding that the island’s recent move to begin producing long-range missiles that could reach deep into mainland China was a “big deal.”

Taiwan’s missiles are “a clear message that they’re going to reach out and inflict cost,” according to Mills.

Soong suggested that the Biden administration could support Taiwan in two ways: assisting Taiwan to participate in international organizations and welcoming Taiwan to become a part of a “trusted industry alliance.”

In February, Biden signed an executive order to begin a 100-day review of U.S. supply chains in several key sectors, including semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, and rare-earth minerals.

The American Institute in Taiwan, the de-facto U.S. embassy in Taiwan, announced on April 1 that a virtual forum was held on Wednesday between high-level Taiwanese and American officials, to discuss the effort to expand Taiwan’s participation in “U.N. organizations and other international fora,” including the World Health Organization (WHO).

Taiwan is currently not a member of the WHO because of Beijing’s objections.

The Biden administration could also take active steps to enforce several pieces of pro-Taiwan legislation that were signed into law by former President Donald Trump, Soong said. The legislation includes the Taiwan Travel Act, the TAIPEI Act, and the Asia Reassurance Initiative Act.

Taiwan, located on the first island chain, would be among the first targets of any Chinese military aggression in Asia. The first island chain is an arbitrary demarcation from the southern Japanese island of Kyushu, Taiwan, the Philippines, to Indonesia. For decades, the CCP’s military strategists have seen the first island chain as a barrier to the regime’s air and naval power, leaving the second island chain and beyond out of its reach.

As a result, Soong said that some European and Asian countries, in particular Japan and Australia, are observing Taiwan closely to see whether cooperation between Taipei and Washington is solid.

“These countries are watching how the U.S. government will enact these legislation, questioning whether it will pay lip service [about U.S. commitment to allies’ security] under certain situations,” explained Soong.

The Biden administration has said its commitment to Taiwan is “rock-solid.” But according to Soong, how serious the administration is in defending the island remains to be seen, especially given that Biden himself has never used the word “threat” to describe the CCP.

Biden has instead framed the regime as America’s “most serious competitor.”

Soong said he foresees the United States and China engaging in small-scale military conflicts in the near future, especially at two Taiwan-controlled islands in the South China Sea—Dongsha and Taiping.

“I believe the United States and China are in a new cold war,” Soong said.

END
CHINA/USA
China is not going to like this:  The USA is mulling boycotting the 2022 Beijing Olympics
(zerohedge)

In Biden Change Of Tune, US Mulling Boycott Of 2022 Beijing Olympics

 
TUESDAY, APR 06, 2021 – 08:05 PM

As if US-China relations weren’t bad enough at this moment, things are about to escalate further – potentially taking the Biden White House past even beyond the low-point of the trade war during the Trump presidency. 

State Department spokesman Ned Price told reporters during a daily briefing on Tuesday that the US and its allies are discussing a joint boycott of the 2022 Winter Olympics in Beijing

It’s not the first time the issue has been addressed, and previously it was mainly Republicans pressuring action regarding the Olympics and China’s egregious human rights record. In early February the White House had indicated it “had no plans” for a boycott, with Jen Psaki asserting at the time, “We’re not currently talking about changing our posture or our plans as it relates to the Beijing Olympics.”

But “plans” have clearly changed, especially following the March 22 coordinated sanctions slapped on top Beijing officials over the Uighur crackdown by the US, UK, EU and Canada. The Canadians in particular have been the most vocal in parliament for urging an international boycott of the 2022 games, which has riled China. 

Here’s what the State Department’s Ned Price said in the Tuesday afternoon comments

“It [a joint boycott] is something that we certainly wish to discuss,” …he told reporters when asked about the Biden administration’s plans ahead of the international games.

“A coordinated approach will not only be in our interest but also in the interest of our allies and partners,” he added.

Price said that the United States has not yet made a decision but was concerned about China’s egregious human rights abuses. The Olympic Games are due to take place between Feb. 4 to Feb. 20.

When pressed over a possible timeline of when such a decision would be reached, Price added: “We’re talking about 2022, and we are still in April of 2021, so these Games remain some time away.” 

“I wouldn’t want to put a time frame on it, but these discussions are underway.” 

Quickly following the comments Price attempted a little damage control…

Of course, the administration might want to consult the US Olympic committee as well as the hundreds of elite athletes now training and working toward their 2022 Olympic dreams – as it would mean them having to sit on the sidelines, missing a once in four year opportunity. 

In prior reactions particularly to Canadian and other Western politicians calling for the boycott, China’s foreign ministry has slammed the human rights abuse allegations as based purely on “lies and fabrications”. 

end

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

UK/GREENSILL

The fallout from Greensill collapse hits the British government hard and leaves taxpayers with huge loses. The story behind the Greensill sag…

Nick Corbishley/NakedCapitalism.com)

Fallout From Greensill Collapse Splatters British Government, Leaves Taxpayers With Big Losses

 
WEDNESDAY, APR 07, 2021 – 02:00 AM

Authored by Nick Corbishley via NakedCapitalism.com,

Downing Street’s dodgy dealings with Citigroup and Greensill show just how far the British government is willing to go to line the pockets of banks and other financial firms while bleeding taxpayers dry. 

The collapse of UK-based supply chain finance firm Greensill Capital continues to reverberate. In Germany the private banking association has paid out around €2.7 billion to more than 20,500 Greensill Bank customers as part of its deposit guarantee scheme after the bank collapsed in early March. But the deposits of institutional investors such as other financial institutions, investment firms, and local authorities are not covered. Fifty municipalities are believed to be nursing losses of at least €500 million.

Greensill’s biggest source of funds, Credit Suisse, has seen its share price plunge by almost a quarter. This is due not only to the fallout from Greensill’s collapse but also the impact of losses at its prime brokerage division caused by the stricken U.S. hedge fund Archegos, which are expected to reach €4 billion. The lender has warned of “considerable uncertainty” regarding the valuation of its supply chain finance fund. More than $5 billion of the roughly $10 billion invested in the fund remains outstanding.

Credit Suisse had assured clients in marketing documents that the debt in the supply chain fund was “low risk”. In one factsheet, it also said: “The underlying credit risk of the notes is fully insured by highly rated insurance companies.” At the beginning of March, that turned out not to be true. Some clients whose money remains trapped in the fund have threatened to sue.

Greensill’s biggest client, Anglo-Indian steel magnate Sanjeev Gupta, is on the verge of bankruptcy. Gupta’s GFG Alliance reportedly owes Greensill more than €3 billion. It began defaulting on its obligations after Greensill stopped lending to the group at the beginning of March. At the end of March Gupta requested a £170 million emergency loan from the UK government, which was duly rejected. Greensill’s administrator, Grant Thornton, has been unable to verify invoices underpinning some of the loans to Gupta. Companies listed on the documents denied ever having done business with the metals magnate.

Now the fallout is beginning to splatter the British government, which invited Greensill to participate in its Coronavirus Large Business Interruption Loan Scheme (CLBILS). This is despite the fact the company: a) wasn’t a bank; and b) was quite clearly already in deep financial trouble. Greensill’s participation in CLBILS allowed it to extend even more loans, this time government backed, to Gupta’s empire. Taxpayers will now probably end up holding the bag for those loans.

Special Treatment, Frantic Lobbying

Greensill Capital was the only non-bank financial firm to administer the emergency coronavirus loan schemes. The Treasury has admitted that Greensill was exempt from the capital adequacy and stress tests that would safeguard the public from risk when using other lenders. The apparent reason for this special treatment was that former UK Prime Minister David Cameron, who had joined Greensill as an advisor in 2018, was frantically lobbying Chancellor of Exhchequer Rishi Sunak to hand government loans to the embattled financial firm even as it spiralled toward bankruptcy.

Cameron is believed to have held share options in Greensill Capital worth tens of millions of pounds. Now they’re worth nothing.

Cameron’s ties with Greensill’s eponymous founder, Lex Greensill, date all the way back to 2011, when Cameron’s then-cabinet secretary, Jeremy Heywood, brought Greensill — then the head of Citi’s supply chain finance division — into 10 Downing Street as a special advisor. Greensill was still on Citi’s payroll when he joined the government. As an expose in The Sunday Times reveals, his brief was to convince ministers and senior civil servants to hire Citi to extend early payment to many of the government’s biggest suppliers.

Citigroup’s pitch was to pay the state’s suppliers in sectors where it apparently paid late, such as pharmacists awaiting NHS prescription fees.

[Maurice Thompson, the British boss of Citigroup who would later become chairman of Greensill Capital’s supervisory board] claimed this would help business owners — offering them an alternative to expensive loans — and the government. It would also be a smart investment for Citi: paying tens of billions of pounds in invoices on behalf of the most reliable of clients, the state, and taking a cut along the way.

This was not about finding a solution to a government problem, but rather a government problem that would fit Citi’s — and later Greensill’s — particular solution. The plan met stiff opposition in certain quarters. Given that government can borrow at ultra-low interest rates, some began asking why it needed to bring in Citigroup, or any investment bank for that matter, to pay its bills. Surely it made more sense to find a way to expedite its payments to suppliers rather than pay an intermediary to do so on its behalf.

Citi aimed to start small, by paying pharmacists that supplied the NHS, but its ambition was sweeping. It sought to roll out supply chain finance across the UK’s public sector, “paying invoices covering GPs, dentists, opticians, physiotherapists, the Ministry of Defence, Her Majesty’s Revenue and Customs (HMRC), Royal Mail and even the BBC.”

Dodgy Dealings

A group of civil servants tried to thwart the plan. But Greensill enjoyed the backing of Heywood, Britain’s “most powerful civil servant” at the time. Heywood gave Greensill his own team and access to any department he wished to address. He also made him a senior advisor and crown representative to Her Majesty’s Government on supply chain finance. 

What really irked some civil servants was the ambiguity of Greensill’s position. After Greensill had left Citibank, months after joining Downing Street, and set up his own supply chain finance firm (Greensill Capital) “it was unclear whose interests he was advancing: his former employer’s, his own firm’s or, as one would expect, the taxpayer’s.” Even more dubious was the way in which the government assigned projects to Citi (and later Greensill Capital), reports the Sunday Times.

At the time the pharmacy scheme was announced, there was no detail about who would benefit from it. The government never formally announced or published details of the policy.

It is only thanks to the legal small print sent to pharmacists that details have emerged. For the first five years the scheme was operated by Citigroup. Then it was awarded to Greensill Capital, which ran it until the company’s collapse last month. The scheme has since been nationalised.

The precise circumstances in which the work was awarded to Citigroup remain unclear. The law states that unless the government is procuring services in an emergency, such as buying PPE during a pandemic or a helicopter in the middle of a war, it must create open and fair competition for companies that hope to deliver them.

However, last night the government admitted it did not sign a contract for Citigroup’s services. Nor did it create an open competition so that other banks could bid for the work. Despite the warnings of Peilow, it was handed out directly to Citi via an existing and secretive relationship between the bank and the Government Banking Service.

This chimes with an email sent by Greensill on November 12, 2012. He wrote: “It is important to note that there is no formal contract with Citibank with respect to the provision of supply chain finance.” He added: “This situation is entirely normal in the private sector as the bank is providing financing to our suppliers, not us.”

What is not normal is that a Wall Street bank was allowed to handle billions of pounds of NHS cash without a contract. Even by the government’s own standards it was exceptional: in 2018 it created a formal procurement process before handing the scheme to Greensill.

The evidence points to a stark conclusion: in the face of staunch opposition from civil servants, the government secretly gave a scheme to Citigroup, which came up with the idea, after its former head of supply chain finance, Greensill, drove the policy through Whitehall.

The only point of this scheme was to create easy money for financiers while bleeding taxpayers dry. As such, this scandal is not just about the losses taxpayers will have to bear as a result of the government’s underwriting of Greensill’s emergency loans to Gupta; it’s about the money that’s already been squandered by the government’s wholly unnecessary use of supply chain finance in the first place. 

It’s all eerily reminiscent of the disastrous Private Finance Initiative (PFI). Over decades successive Tory and Labour governments signed off on hundreds of debt-financed projects for which the rate of interest could be as much as 2 to 3.75 percentage points higher than the cost of government borrowing. It was a giant cash cow for the government’s corporate and banking partners. In 2018 it was estimated that the government would end up paying private companies £199 billion, including interest, between April 2017 until the 2040s for existing deals, in addition to some £110 billion already paid — for 700 projects worth around £60 billion!

The senior politicians and civil servants get rewarded for their loyalty later down the line. The civil servant in charge of all the government’s commercial contracts during Cameron’s administration, Bill Crothers, became a director at Greensill in 2016, a year after leaving government. In 2017 Lex Greensill was awarded the  CBE for services to the British economy in Queen Elizabeth II’s 2017 Birthday Honours. A year later his company won a juicy government contract. 

Happy Camping With Bin Salman

As for Cameron himself, he joined Greensill as a a special adviser in 2018, two years after leaving politics. In February 2020 he and Lex Greensill went on a camping holiday with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, little more than a year after bin Salman had arranged the murder of Washington Post and Middle East Eye columnist Jamal Khashoggi. The holiday appears to have reaped dividends. In June 2020, a senior Greensill Capital executive spoke publicly about the company’s partnership with the Saudi Public Investment Fund, describing it as “part of the family” of the sovereign wealth fund.

According to most reports Cameron did nothing wrong. Last week he was cleared of breaking lobbying rules after it was concluded that as an employee of Greensill, he was not required to declare himself on the register of consultant lobbyists. But his already tarnished reputation is in tatters and he could face an investigation. Cameron himself refuses to even respond to the lobbying allegations. His ear-splitting silence speaks volumes about the state of British politics today.

END

EU/ US//GLOBE

Big tech is not liking this:  The EU is praising Yellen’s global minimum tax and states that a deal could come later this year

(zerohedge)

“A Great Step Forward” – EU Praises Yellen’s Global Minimum Tax, Says Deal Could Come Later This Year

 
WEDNESDAY, APR 07, 2021 – 02:45 AM

Few, if any, industries are going to love the higher taxes they will soon face in the US and abroad thanks to President Biden and his American Jobs Plan. But big tech has good reason to be particularly unnerved by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s calls for a global minimum corporate tax rate.

Though it didn’t name its source, Bloomberg reported Tuesday that the EU plans to insist that its long-awaited digital tax on the US tech giants – which Washington (under Trump) had protested – be part of the same package as the global minimum corporate tax in order to secure a deal.

A bevy of European officials have praised Yellen’s call for nations to work together to set a new tax floor, a call that was made during a speech to the Chicago Council on Global Affairs yesterday.

Paolo Gentiloni, the European Commission’s point man on the economy, responded to Yellen’s plea for G-20 economies to agree on the minimum tax to prevent a “race to the bottom” with praise, saying there could be a breakthrough agreement by the summer.

He wasn’t the only European official to endorse the idea. German Finance Minister Olaf Scholz also welcomed the idea, calling the minimum corporate tax “a great step forward” in the battle to stem the erosion of government revenues. “The support of the USA gives this initiative a strong tailwind,” Scholz told reporters, adding that he hoped a deal could be achieved this year, according to AFP.

“It’s very good news,” Gentiloni said in an interview with Bloomberg Television’s Francine Lacqua where he welcomed “this new multilateral atmosphere with the new US administration and the strong possibility of cooperation in the global arena. One of the main results could be finding agreements in global taxation.”

Finance ministers of the G-20 group of large economies are expected to discuss the proposal during a virtual meeting on Wednesday, where Italy will preside as the current occupant of the G-20’s rotating presidency. 

A Treasury official told reporters the G-20 goal is to have a proposal on the global minimum tax by July, and President Joe Biden’s administration could if needed change its legislation to bring the US minimum tax into line with the international plan. A G-20 agreement would, in turn, increase the odds that members of the broader OECD agree to the minimum.

European Commission spokesman Daniel Ferrie said the bloc called “on all global partners to remain engaged in these discussions and to continue work without delay.”

But if we have learned anything from the past few years, it’s that just because Brussels endorses a plan, doesn’t mean all of the 27 remaining EU member states will go along with it. And as member states prepare to tap the massive EU COVID rescue fund, some might chafe at Brussels’ removing one pathway toward stoking growth and job creation.

Of course, the EU isn’t the only transnational organization exclaiming the virtues of higher taxes. The IMF has been pushing predistributive and redistributive policies even before the pandemic, though it has since doubled downas Mike Shedlock explains.

in the meantime, analysts will need to factor in greater odds of a new global tax regime that could arrive before the end of the year.

END

 

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

TURKEY/RUSSIA/USA

This will annoy the uSA greatly! And Turkey wants to join NATO?

(zerohedge)

Turkey, Russia Poised To Sign Space Cooperation Deal As New Turkish Program Struggles

 
WEDNESDAY, APR 07, 2021 – 04:15 AM

First it was Turkey’s acquirement of Russia’s S-400 anti-air defense missiles which soured relations with Washington, and next it will be space apparently. 

Turkey’s government announced this week that it’s poised to sign a space cooperation agreement with Russia. Though no specific timeline was given, the head of Turkey’s recently established space agency said a cooperative agreement will come “in the near future”. 

Via Roscosmos

The president of Turkish Space Agency Serdar Hüseyin Yıldırım announced of the talks with Russia“We have plans for signing an agreement in the near future.”

He described in an interview with TASS that “We are building bilateral relations with countries and with international organizations that we have identified in accordance with our national goals. We keep working on common conditions of cooperation with different countries, including Russia.”

He cited the high cost and immense infrastructure that goes behind the advanced technology required for space exploration as making it essential to seeking help from Russia’s long established program. Indeed jumpstarting an ambitious space program in the middle of a deteriorating and erratic economy sounds easier in a speech or merely on paper… as The Guardian wrote earlier this year:

Turkey founded its space agency in December 2018 after the ruling Justice and Development party (AKP) made the project an election campaign promise earlier that year, but Turkey’s extraterrestrial aspirations have had trouble getting off the ground so far because of both the project’s complexity and Turkey’s economic crisis.

“Our goal at the international level is to establish strong relations of partnership with regional partners and with our neighbors. As far as Russia is concerned, we have vast opportunities in many fields of cooperation. We believe that we will be able to make much faster progress if we manage to build firm relations of partnership based on mutually beneficial cooperation,” he explained. 

It was only in February of this year that President Erdoğan unveiled Turkey’s “10-year space road map”. Turkey hopes to initiate missions to the moon along with advancing a satellite program toward establishing its own network of systems. 

The country’s Turkish Space Agency (TUA) is among the youngest in the world, only having been established in 2018

 

end

RUSSIA/CHINA USA/UKRAINE/PHILIPPINES

Buchanan outlines the drama happening between China vs Philippines and Ukraine vs Russia. Will the uSA get involved.

Pat Buchanan

Buchanan: For What Should We Fight Russia Or China?

 
TUESDAY, APR 06, 2021 – 11:05 PM

Authored by Pat Buchanan via Buchanan.org,

Last Monday, in a single six-hour period, NATO launched 10 air intercepts to shadow six separate groups of Russian bombers and fighters over the Arctic, North Atlantic, North Sea, Black Sea and Baltic Sea.

Last week also brought reports that Moscow is increasing its troop presence in Crimea and along its borders with Ukraine.

Joe Biden responded.

In his first conversation with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, Biden assured him of our “unwavering support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity in the face of Russia’s ongoing aggression in the Donbass and Crimea.”

Though Ukraine is not a member of NATO, and we have no treaty obligation to fight in its defense, this comes close to a war guarantee. Biden seems to be saying that if it comes to a shooting war between Moscow and Kiev, we will be there on the side of Kiev.

Last week, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov answered that if the U.S. sends troops to Ukraine, Russia will respond.

Again, is Biden saying that in the event of a military clash between Ukrainians and Russians in Crimea, Donetsk or Luhansk, the U.S. will intervene militarily on the side of Ukraine?

Such a pledge could put us at war with a nuclear-armed Russia in a region where we have never had vital interests, and without the approval of the only institution authorized to declare war — Congress.

Meanwhile, off Whitsun Reef in the South China Sea, which Beijing occupies but Manila claims, China has amassed 220 maritime militia ships.

This huge Chinese flotilla arrived after Secretary of State Anthony Blinken put Beijing on notice that any attack on Philippine planes or ships challenging Beijing’s claim to rocks and reefs of the South China Sea that are in Manila’s exclusive economic zone will be backed by the U.S.

Our 70-year-old mutual security treaty with Manila covers these islets and reefs, said Blinken, though some are already occupied and fortified by China.

Apparently, if Manila uses force to assert its claims and expel the Chinese, then we will fight beside our Philippine allies. This amounts to a war guarantee of the kind that forced the British to declare war on Germany in 1939 over the invasion of Poland.

Two weeks ago, 20 Chinese military aircraft entered Taiwan’s air defense identification zone in the largest incursion yet by Beijing over the waters between Taiwan and Taiwan-controlled Pratas Islands. As national security correspondent Bill Gertz writes in today’s Washington Times:

China is stepping up provocative activities targeting regional American allies in Asia … with an escalating number of military flights around Taiwan and the massing of more than 200 fishing ships near a disputed Philippines reef.

“China also raised tensions with Japan, announcing last week that Tokyo must drop all claims to the disputed Senkaku Islands, an uninhabited island chain that Japan has administered for decades but that Beijing recently claimed as its territory.

“The most serious provocation took place March 29. An exercise by the People’s Liberation Army air force that included 10 warplanes flew into Taiwan’s air defense zone is what analysts say appeared to be a simulated attack on the island. It came just three days after an earlier mass warplane incursion.”

While China appears clear about its aims and claims to virtually all of the islands in the South China Sea and East China Sea as well as Taiwan — it is less clear about its intentions as to when to validate those claims.

As for the U.S., does the present foggy ambiguity as to what we may or may not do as China goes about asserting its claims serve our vital interests in avoiding war with the greatest power on the largest continent on earth?

If red lines are to be laid down, they ought to be laid down by the one constitutional body with the authority to authorize or declare war — Congress. And questions need to be answered to avoid the kinds of miscalculations that led to horrific world wars in the 20th century.

Are the reefs and rocks the Philippines claim in the South China Sea, claims contradicted by China, covered by the U.S. mutual security treaty of 1951? Are we honor-bound to fight China on behalf of the Philippines, if Manila attempts to reclaim islets China occupies?

What is our obligation if China moves to take the Senkakus? Would the United States join Japan in military action to hold or retrieve them?

What, exactly, is our commitment to Taiwan if China attempts to blockade, invade or seize Taiwan’s offshore islands?

John F. Kennedy in the second debate with Richard Nixon in 1960 wrote off Quemoy and Matsu in the Taiwan Strait as indefensible and not worth war with Mao’s China.

With its warnings and threats, China is forcing America to address questions we have been avoiding for about as long as we can.

China is saying that it is not bluffing: These islands are ours!

Time to show our cards.

end

RUSSIA/UKRAINE//UPDATE

Ukraine mess

“No man’s life, liberty or property are safe while the Legislature is in session.”

6.Global Issues

Michael Every on the major events of the day

(Michael Every)

CORONAVIRUS UPDATE/VACCINE UPDATE/ASTRAZENECA/J & J VACCINES
Thromboplastic events now a fact with AZ and similar effects with J and j
Please do not take these two vaccines as well as Pfizer’s  and Moderna
It looks like the only safe ones to take are Novavax and Medicago.  We still need more data on this
It is safer to take Ivermectin once a month and you will never catch COVID 19
(zerohedge)

Watch Live: EMA Delivers Update On AstraZeneca Jab After Acknowledging Blood-Clot Link

 
WEDNESDAY, APR 07, 2021 – 09:55 AM

Update (0955ET): In a statement released just minutes before the briefing’s start, the EMA declared that it had found a possible link between the extremely rare blood clots and the AstraZeneca jab – however, these risks are still heavily outweighed by the societal benefits.

  • EMA FINDS POSSIBLE LINK TO VERY RARE CASES UNUSUAL BLOOD CLOTS
  • EMA CONFIRMS TOTAL BENEFIT-RISK REMAINS POSITIVE ON ASTRA SHOT
  • EMA: SPECIFIC RISK FACTORS NOT CONFIRMED FOR WOMEN UNDER 60
  • MOST CASES REPORTED WITHIN 2 WEEKS OF VACCINATION
  • IMMUNE RESPONSE ONE POSSIBLE EXPLANATION
  • EMA: COMBINATION OF BLOOD CLOTS AND LOW BLOOD PLATELETS IS RARE
  • EMA SAYS CONCLUDED TODAY THAT UNUSUAL BLOOD CLOTS WITH LOW BLOOD PLATELETS SHOULD BE LISTED AS VERY RARE SIDE EFFECTS OF VAXZEVRIA
  • EMA SAYS IN REACHING CONCLUSION, COMMITTEE TOOK INTO CONSIDERATION ALL CURRENTLY AVAILABLE EVIDENCE, INCLUDING THE ADVICE FROM AN AD HOC EXPERT GROUP
  • EMA: COMBINATION OF BLOOD CLOTS AND LOW BLOOD PLATELETS IS RARE

* * *

Weeks after its initial “safety review”, where the EMA insisted that the risks posed by the AstraZeneca jab were outweighed by the massive societal benefit, dozens of new cases of blood clots have been detected, including 25 in the UK that have apparently been linked to the jab. The news prompted Oxford to cancel a trial of the vaccine involving young children. Yesterday, the EMA finally acknowledged that there might indeed be a link between the jab and the clots, but that it wasn’t very clear.

Wednesday is “World Health Day”, yet two regions in Spain have just announced new plans to suspend AstraZeneca shots to patients under 65, pending further clarification from the EMA.

“EMA is holding a virtual press briefing on the conclusion of the evaluation of a safety signal with Vaxzevria (formerly Covid-19 Vaccine AstraZeneca) relating to cases of thromboembolic events by EMA’s safety committee,” the agency said in a statement.

A few days ago, an Australian official acknowledged that a link between the jab and the brain blood clots were extremely like.

Readers can watch the briefing live below:

end

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 
 
 
END

 

Your early WEDNESDAY MORNING currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings MONDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1894 UP .0020 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS//CORONAVIRUS/PANDEMIC/TRUMP POSITIVE WITH VIRUS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /ALL MIXED 

USA/JAPAN YEN 109.80 DOWN 0.020 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.3821  DOWN   0.0008  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/

USA/CAN 1.2592 UP .0020 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  WEDNESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE BY 20 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.1894 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE DOWN 3,34 PTS OR 0.10% 

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 263.94 PTS OR 0.91% 

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP .61% // EUROPEAN BOURSES CLOSED ALL MIXED

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES CLOSED ALL MIXED

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang DOWN 263.94 PTS OR 0.91%  

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 3.34 PTS OR 0.10% 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP .61%  

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 34.16  POINTS OR 0.12%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1735.90

silver:$24.96-

Early WEDNESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 1.661% !!! DOWN 0 IN POINTS from TUESDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

The 30 yr bond yield 2.326 DOWN 0  IN BASIS POINTS from TUESDAY night.

USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 92.21 DOWN 12 CENT(S) from  MONDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers WEDNESDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing  WEDNESDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.24% UP 0 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.10%  DOWN 1   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.35%//UP 0 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:  0.70 UP 0 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 35 points higher than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.32% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.02% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR WEDNESDAY

Closing currency crosses for WEDNESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1903 UP     .0029 or 29 basis points

USA/Japan: 109.73 DOWN .066 OR YEN UP 6  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3771 DOWN .0059 POUND DOWN 59  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 54 basis points to 1.2626

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The USA/Yuan,  CNY: closed    ON SHORE  (DOWN).. 6.5420

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.750  (YUAN DOWN)..6.5463

TURKISH LIRA:  8.17  EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.10%

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 1 IN basis points from TUESDAY at 1.653 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.322 DOWN 0 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 92.22 DOWN 12  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for WEDNESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 61.77 PTS OR 0.91% 

 

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 0.68 PTS OR .01% 

 

Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 36.32 PTS OR .24% 

 

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN  37.20  PTS OR .43%  

 

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 20.39 PTS OR .08% 

 

WTI Oil price; 59.93 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 63.28 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE FALLS:    77.36  THE CROSS HIGHER BY 0.01 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE LOWER BY 1 BASIS PTS)

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.32 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OILPRICE 4:30 PM : 59.59//

BRENT :  63.09

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 1.661..up 1 basis points…

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.357 up 3 basis points..

EURO/USA 1.1872 ( DOWN 2   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:109.80 down .010 (YEN up 1 BASIS POINTS/..

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 92.44 UP 11 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.3732 DOWN 98  POINTS

the Turkish lira close: 8.17

the Russian rouble 77.15   UP 0.20 Roubles against the uSA dollar. (UP 20 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.2617  down  47 BASIS pts

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.33%

The Dow closed UP 15.96 POINTS OR 0.05%

NASDAQ closed UP 38.24 POINTS OR 0.28%


VOLATILITY INDEX:  17.24 CLOSED DOWN 0.88

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 0.194%//libor dropping like a stone

USA trading day in Graph Form

Small Caps & Cryptos Clubbed As Bonds & The Buck Bounce

 
WEDNESDAY, APR 07, 2021 – 04:00 PM

Stocks slipped a bit around 1115ET when Fed’s Kaplan warned “I do worry about excesses and imbalances,” adding that “failing to communicate Fed exit could stoke risk-taking.” Kaplan went to say that The Fed “should withdraw some accommodation once the pandemic is over.”

Then Yellen unveiled her Tax America plan and that spooked stocks further.

Stocks then rallied on The Fed minutes which really didn’t say much at all – and were thus interpreted as dovish, as there was little to no sense that policy makers were worried about an overheating U.S. economy.

As is clear, Small Caps were the day’s biggest losers with Nasdaq holding modest gains and the Dow/S&P flat…

The short-term rates market continued its very recent dovish tilt today after The Fed minutes, now pricing in slightly less than one rate hike by the end of 2022 (still way ahead of The Fed’s dots)..

Source: Bloomberg

But as long as stocks in general are rising… everything is awesome right? The Fed’s got it!

Notably, “most shorted” stocks were slammed today, hedgies most-held stocks were flat…

Source: Bloomberg

Nasdaq continued its significant outperformance over Small Caps, surging to its strongest since mid-Feb (reversing around The March FOMC meeting)…

Source: Bloomberg

Notably, the Russell strength relative to Nasdaq reversed perfectly at the longer-term downtrend…

Source: Bloomberg

And growth broke out relative to value…

Source: Bloomberg

A mixed bag in bonds today with the long-end offered and short-end bid (5Y -1bps, 30Y +2bps), which pushed the 30Y higher on the week while the 5Y is still -4bps…

Source: Bloomberg

10Y chopped around 1.65% today…

Source: Bloomberg

Junk bond spreads compressed to their tightest since 2007, back below 300bps…

Source: Bloomberg

“We’re not quite to peak greed yet, but we are getting close,” said Noel Hebert, director of credit research at Bloomberg Intelligence.

After 4 straight days of being dumped in European markets, the dollar managed a bounce today…

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos puked with Bitcoin back below $56k…

Source: Bloomberg

Ether was also clubbed like a baby seal, back below $2000…

Source: Bloomberg

Also we note – as Galaxy’s Mike Novogratz pointed out – that 5Y TSYs is a strong hedge for bitcoin…

Source: Bloomberg

Dollar’s gain was gold’s loss today (the barbarous relic was hit after the fed minutes)…

WTI tumbled on last night’s API, tested $60 overnight, then tumbled again on the official data… only to bounce off $58 to end higher on the day…

 

Finally, the market appears to be pricing-in another helping of central bank largesse… let’s hope it’s not disappointed…

Source: Bloomberg

a)Market trading/FRIDAY/NON FARM PAYROLLS/USA

b)MARKET TRADING/USA//THIS AFTERNOON

Yellen Unveils $2.5 Trillion Tax Reclamation Plan, Fed Threatens To Withdraw Accommodation As Pandemic Ends

 
WEDNESDAY, APR 07, 2021 – 11:52 AM

Stocks just got hit with a double-whammy of hawkishness as Fed’s Kaplan threatened to withdraw accommodation as the pandemic ends and Treasury’s Yellen unveiled a plan to grab back $2.5 trillion in taxes from corporations.

Just a week after his last warning sank stocks, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Robert Kaplan is at it again.

Last week he opined that:

“I’m concerned about excess risk-taking and if that excess risk-taking goes too far, whether it creates excesses and imbalances, that could ultimately create challenges,”

This week he reiterated that fear and went further as stocks began to slip around 1115ET when Fed’s Kaplan warned:

“I do worry about excesses and imbalances,” adding that “failing to communicate Fed exit could stoke risk-taking.”

Stocks, most notably Small Caps, accelerated their losses as Kaplan went to say that The Fed “should withdraw some accommodation once the pandemic is over.”

So now we know – Powell is the ‘good cop’ and Kaplan is the ‘bad cop’?

Losses were extended as Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen unveiled a detailed sales pitch for the Biden adminstration’s proposed new corporate-tax code, a plan that she said would be fairer to all Americans, remove incentives for companies to shift investments and profit abroad and raise more money for critical needs at home.

ii)Market data/USA

This is good for gold:  USA deficit hits 71.1 billion dollars in Feb…the highest recorded deficit in history

(zerohedge)

US Trade Deficit Hits Record High In February

 
WEDNESDAY, APR 07, 2021 – 08:38 AM

After the 2018-2019 rebound in the US Trade Balance to a three year low (as Trump ‘adjusted’ US-China’s relationship), the trade deficit has surged from the start of the pandemic to the latest data in February, at $71.1 billion – the largest trade deficit in US history (from a revised $67.8 billion a month earlier). This was slightly worse than the expected $70.5 billion deficit.

Source: Bloomberg

A decline in exports exceeded a drop in the value of imports during the month as severe winter weather disrupted two-way trade.

  • Imports fell 0.7% in Feb. to $258.33b from $260.06b in Jan.

  • Exports fell 2.6% in Feb. to $187.25b from $192.23b in Jan.

Interestingly, the US trade balance for petroleum products fell back into deficit in February after being in surplus (a net exporter) since Feb 2020…

Source: Bloomberg

Specific country highlights include:

The deficit with China increased $3.1 billion to $30.3 billion in February.

Exports decreased $4.5 billion to $10.4 billion and imports decreased $1.5 billion to $40.6 billion.

Source: Bloomberg

The deficit with Canada increased $2.2 billion to $4.0 billion in February.

Exports decreased $0.5 billion to $23.7 billion and imports increased $1.7 billion to $27.7 billion.

The deficit with Mexico decreased $5.1 billion to $6.8 billion in February.

Exports increased $2.1 billion to $22.8 billion and imports decreased $3.0 billion to $29.6 billion.

Merchandise imports have been pouring into the nation’s ports, leading to shipping container shortages that have driven up freight rates and left domestic producers scrambling at a time when inventories are lean.

end

Biggest Beat On Record: Consumer Credit Explodes Higher As Americans Rediscover Their Love For Credit Cards

 
WEDNESDAY, APR 07, 2021 – 03:21 PM

Earlier this week, when looking at the latest BofA card spending data, we observed that “whereas previously the bulk of the upside spending game from debt card outlays, in recent weeks we have seen a solid increase in credit card spending as well as consumers turn more optimistic on their financial futures. This means that the period of credit card deleveraging that market much of 2020 is now officially over.”

Turns out this was once again prescient, because while consensus expected today’s consumer credit print to rise by just $2.8BN after four consecutive months of credit card paydowns to end 2020 and the first month of 2021, moments ago the Fed reported in its latest monthly G.19 statement that in February consumer credit exploded by a whopping $27.6 billion, which not only was the highest monthly increase in the series since November 2017…

… but was about 10x higher than the expected number of $2.8BN, making it the biggest beat on record!

And while non-revolving credit – i.e., student and auto loans – continued its relentless ramp higher, increasing by $19.5BN in February, the most since June of 2020…

… it was the surge in credit card debt in February that made all the difference because after 4 months of paydowns, revolving (i.e. credit card) debt surged by $8.1 billion, the most since December 2019!

This latest shift in spending patterns, means that things are now indeed almost back to normal, and that with consumers now spending not just using their debit cards (which is where the stimmy checks arrive) but their credit cards, it appears that Americans are increasingly more confident about the future, and are spending appropriately.

END

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

ARCHEGOS

“A Gigantic Clusterf**k”: How Morgan Stanley Avoided $10BN In Archegos Losses By Selling First

 
TUESDAY, APR 06, 2021 – 05:45 PM

One week ago, in our initial take on the biggest hedge fund collapse since LTCM, we explained that – in our view – the catalyst for the failure of the Archegos hedge fund, which had as much as 10x leverage allowing it to hold some $100BN in positions, was Morgan Stanley and Goldman breaking ranks with their fellow prime brokers, and sparking the biggest margin call since Lehman and AIG.

Turns out we were right.

In the most detailed account yet of what happened in the fateful 24 hours between March 25 and 26, when many – but not all – of Archegos’ big prime brokers starting dumping blocks of Bill Hwang’s margined stock, CNBC’s Hugh Son writes that “the night before the Archegos Capital story burst into public view late last month, the fund’s biggest prime broker quietly unloaded some of its risky positions to hedge funds, people with knowledge of the trades told CNBC.”

That prime broker was Morgan Stanley and to avoid what could have been up to $10 billion in losses, the bank sold about $5 billion in shares from Archegos’ holdings in media and Chinese tech names to a small group of hedge funds late Thursday, March 25, roughly around the time a last ditch negotiation between prime brokers including Credit Suisse failed to reach a compromise to avoid a firesale.

Morgan Stanley’s scramble to “be first” is a previously unreported detail that shows the extraordinary steps some banks took to protect themselves from incurring losses from a client’s meltdown. The moves, Son reports, benefited Morgan Stanley, while banks that were slow to react such as Credit Suisse and Nomura have seen billions in losses and widespread C-Suite layoffs. Credit Suisse said Tuesday that it took a $4.7 billion hit after unwinding losing Archegos positions; the firm also cut its dividend and halted share buybacks.

It was also not previously known that Morgan Stanley had the blessing of Archegos itself to shop around its stock late Thursday. The bank offered the shares at a discount, telling the hedge funds that they were part of a margin call that could prevent the collapse of an unnamed client.

Alas, all those hedge funds that bought Archegos holdings late on Thursday are now deep underwater on their positions. That’s because Morgan Stanley had information it didn’t share with the stock buyers: as CNBC details, the basket of shares it was selling, comprised of eight or so names including Baidu and Tencent Music, was merely the opening salvo of an unprecedented wave of tens of billions of dollars in sales by Morgan Stanley and other investment banks starting the very next day.

And now, it is Morgan Stanley’s other clients – those who bought the Archegos positions when approched by the mega broker – that are furious at the bank for having been betrayed and not receiving that crucial context, according to one of the people familiar with the trades. The hedge funds learned later in press reports that Hwang and his prime brokers convened Thursday night to attempt an orderly unwind of his positions, a task which we reported last week proved to be impossible especially once word of the conclave got out.

That means that at least some bankers at Morgan Stanley knew the extent of the selling that was likely and that Hwang’s firm was unlikely to be saved, CNBC’s sources claim. And, as we explained one week ago in “Goldman And Morgan Stanley Broke Ranks “, it was that knowledge that helped Morgan Stanley and rival Goldman Sachs avoid losses because the firms quickly disposed of shares tied to Archegos.

Morgan Stanley had another reason why it had to be first, smartest or cheat:  it was the biggest holder of the top ten stocks traded by Archegos at the end of 2020 with about $18 billion in positions overall, its prime broker going crazy in how much leverage it allowed Hwang to put on via Total Return Swaps. Credit Suisse was the second most exposed with about $10 billion, these sources noted. According to CNBC, that means that Morgan Stanley could’ve faced roughly $10 billion in losses had it not acted quickly.

“I think it was an ‘oh shit’ moment where Morgan was looking at potentially $10 billion in losses on their book alone, and they had to move risk fast,” the person with knowledge said. Meanwhile, for those who missed it, this is how Credit Suisse lost $4.7 billion.

And while Goldman’s sale of $10.5 billion in Archegos-related stock on Friday, March 26 was widely reported after the bank blasted emails to a broad list of clients, Morgan Stanley’s move the night before went unreported until now because the bank dealt with fewer than a half-dozen hedge funds, allowing the transactions to remain hidden.

Needless to say, all those hegde funds would like nothing more than inflicting major pain on James Godman’s bank, although in retrospect, their losses are their own fault: the clients which comprise a subgenre of hedge funds dubbed “equity capital markets strategies,” don’t have views on the merits of individual stocks. Instead, they’ll purchase blocks of stock from big prime brokers like Morgan Stanley and others when the discount is deep enough, usually to unwind the trades over time.

Alas, that deep discount would prove to get much more deep in coming days.

After Morgan Stanley and Goldman sold the first blocks of shares with the consent of Archegos, the floodgates opened. Prime brokers including Morgan Stanley and Credit Suisse then exercised their rights under default, seizing the firm’s collateral and launching a full blown firesale on Friday as CNBC details: 

In a wild session for stocks on that Friday in late March came another twist: Some of the hedge fund investors who had participated in the Thursday sales also bought more stock from Goldman, which came later to market at prices that were 5% to 20% below the Morgan Stanley sales. While these positions were deeply underwater that day, several names including Baidu and Tencent rebounded, allowing hedge funds to unload positions for a profit.

“It was a gigantic clusterf— of five different banks trying to unwind billions of dollars at risk at the same time, not talking to each other, trading at wherever prices were advantageous to themselves,” one industry source said.

While Morgan Stanley exited most Archegos positions by Friday, March 26 it had one last holding: 45 million shares of ViacomCBS, which it shopped to clients on Sunday. The bank’s delayed disposal of Viacom shares has sparked questions and speculation that it held onto the stock because it wanted a secondary offering run by Morgan Stanley the week before to close. A clusterfuck indeed.

Yet in a repeat Wall Street irony, while many funds are furious at Morgan Stanley they will get over it quick: as CNBC concludes, despite leaving some of its hedge fund clients feeling less-than-thrilled, Morgan Stanley isn’t likely to lose them over the Archegos episode because the funds want access to shares of hot IPOs that Morgan Stanley, as the top banker to the U.S. tech industry, can dole out.

In other words, half Boiler Room, half Margin Call…. which is a good excuse as any for us to end with one of the best Wall Street movie clips in the past decade, one which in 2011 predicted with uncanny accuracy everything that would happen to Archegos and its prime brokers…

end
Interesting: 5 states (and all Democrat governing states) report half of all new USA COVID cases.  These states are highly vaccinated already and the Governors demand more jabs
(zerohedge)

5 States Report Half Of New US COVID Cases As Governors Demand More Jabs

 
WEDNESDAY, APR 07, 2021 – 09:45 AM

As Texas watches COVID cases fall despite having scrapped all mandatory restrictions on businesses, masks and movement, a phenomenon that has befuddled Dr. Anthony Fauci, Johns Hopkins reports that roughly half of the new cases being reported in the US are coming from just 5 states, almost all of them controlled by Democrats: New York, Michigan, Florida, Pennsylvania and New Jersey.

Together, these states accounted for 44% of the nation’s new COVID infections, or nearly 197,500 new cases over 7 days. Total US infections during the same period was 452,000. In total, the US reported just under 63K total cases over the last 24 hours, while deaths retreated to just 353.

Source: mSightly

Some warned that high levels of so-called “variants” – mutated COVID strains believed to be more infectious – have reportedly been driving infection rates among the young. But although cases have accelerated, deaths have continued to fall, a byproduct of the fact that most senior citizens, who are the most vulnerable to the virus, have already been vaccinated. In response, some have demanded that the federal government ship more vaccines to the troubled states.

The spike in cases has been especially pronounced in Michigan, where the seven-day average of daily new infections reached 6,719 cases Sunday — more than double what it was two weeks earlier. Only New York reported higher case numbers. And California and Texas, which have vastly larger populations than Michigan, are reporting less than half its number of daily infections.

Source: mSightly

In New York City, vaccination appointments are still hard to come by. Bill de Blasio has publicly harangued the federal government about the need for a bigger vaccine allotment almost daily.

“We still need supply, supply, supply,” de Blasio said, before adding, “But things are really getting better.”

Meanwhile, cases are creeping higher as Gov. Cuomo continues reopening the state.

Source: mSightly

In the Garden State, where the 7-day rolling average of daily new infections has risen over the past two weeks, from 4.05K daily cases to 4.25K, Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy said he is constantly talking to the White House about demand for the coronavirus vaccine, though he stopped short of saying he was lobbying for more vaccines because of the state’s high infection rate.

Vaccine shipments to the state were up 12% over the past week, Murphy said Monday, though he questioned whether that’s enough, as states hope that JNJ’s recent takeover of a factory in nearby Baltimore will help speed the production of badly needed doses.

“We constantly look at, OK, we know we’re going up, but are we going up at the rate we should be, particularly given the amount of cases we have?” Murphy said.

New mutations are clearly one of the drivers in the increase, said Dr. Kirsten Bibbins-Domingo, chair of the department of epidemiology and biostatistics at the University of California at San Francisco in an interview with the Associated Press. Failure to suppress the rise in cases will lead to more people getting sick and dying, she said, and drive increases in other parts of the country.

“More vaccine needs to be where the virus is,” Bibbins-Domingo said, adding that people should get over the “scarcity mindset” that has them thinking surging vaccine into one place will hurt people elsewhere.

Unfortunately, given the latest obstacles facing the AstraZeneca jab, global supplies could be facing a major shortfall as worries about rare blood clots could derail the jab’s approval in the US.

As Oxford abandons a trial of AstraZeneca’s jab on minors, a new Axios/Ipsos survey found that American attitudes toward the vaccine are growing more lax. For example, only half (48%) of Americans said they intend to get their children vaccinated against the virus as soon as the jabs become available. Meanwhile, one in five Americans consistently say they are unlikely to get vaccinated, a number that Forbes recently described as problematic.

END
How do you explain this:  246 fully vaccinated Michigan residents catch COVID and 3 die!!

246 “Fully Vaccinated” Michigan Residents Catch COVID-19, 3 Die

 
WEDNESDAY, APR 07, 2021 – 10:20 AM

So much for the COVID jabs being “100% effective” at preventing “serious illness.”

Michigan, now the epicenter of the American COVID outbreak, is desperately begging the federal government for more vaccines. But reports about a rash of infections in “fully vaccinated” patients might provoke a rethink.

The Detroit News reported that as many as 246 vaccinated Michigan residents later tested positive for the deadly bug, including three who have died. The cases were reported between Jan. 1 and March 31, and the 246 had a positive test 14 or more days after the last dose in the vaccine series, said Lynn Sutfin, a spokeswoman for the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services.

“Some of these individuals may ultimately be excluded from this list due to continuing to test positive from a recent infection prior to being fully vaccinated,” she said.

“These cases are undergoing further review to determine if they meet other CDC criteria for determination of potential breakthrough, including the absence of a positive antigen or PCR test less than 45 days prior to the post-vaccination positive test. In general, these persons have been more likely to be asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic compared with vaccinated persons.”

The department had hospitalization data for 117 of the cases, but 129 were incomplete, Sutfin added. The three deaths were all “persons 65 years or older,” and two of them died within three weeks of completion of vaccination, she said. “While the majority of the population develops full immunity within 14 days of completion of their vaccine series, a small proportion appear to take longer to mount a full antibody response.” Of the 117 with data available, 11 were hospitalized, 103 were not hospitalized, and 3 are reported as unknown, Sutfin said.

As of April 4, about 2.95 million residents, or about 36.5% of Michigan’s population, have been vaccinated, either with one or two doses, according to the state website. About 4.7M doses had been administered.

New cases have surged over the last month, pushing the 7-day average to its highest level since late last year. Even deaths have started to creep higher, a possible effect of mutant strains that are spreading faster in the state.

end

Now it is Krysten Sinema that stands in the way for the most progressive agenda for the Democrats

(Mish Shedlock)

A Single Democrat Senator Stands In The Way Of A Very Progressive Agenda

 
WEDNESDAY, APR 07, 2021 – 10:45 AM

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,

Senator Krysten Sinema (D, AZ), is the last major obstacle to killing the filibuster, tax hikes, the push for $15, and other Progressive agenda.

Last Obstacle Standing 

Senator Joe Manchin (D, WV) allegedly conservative, has mostly caved in on Biden’s agenda.

Progressives now demand killing or gutting Senate filibuster rules. And if the filibuster falls, a Progressive minority will rule the roost.

Pressure Mounts 

Please note Kyrsten Sinema Defends Filibuster as Pressure Mounts From Progressives.

Sen. Kyrsten Sinema has emerged as the staunchest Democratic defender of the filibuster, brushing off fire from the outspoken progressive wing of her party as she tries to stake out a bipartisan reputation in a battleground state.

The Arizona lawmaker is one of just two Democratic senators who have publicly said they would block the party from eliminating the 60-vote requirement to advance most legislation, even as pressure builds from party activists eager to advance their agenda.

House Democrats have passed bills on voting rights, immigration and gun control, but all are expected to be blocked in the 50-50 Senate unless the rules are changed. Ms. Sinema said that is a problem with the senators, not the rules.

“The Senate has long been a graveyard for the priorities of the House,” said Rep. Ritchie Torres (D., N.Y.).

Current Rules

Under current rules it takes 60 Senators to pass a bill. There are exceptions under budget reconciliation bills but not for minimum wages, gun control, voting rights, affirmative action, etc.

Minimum Wages 

Sinema is also not on board with a $15 minimum wage.

Progressives are also upset at her emphatic thumbs down of a House attempt to attach a minimum wage provision to the Covid legislation that recently passed.

She does support hiking the minimum wage to $12.15 an hour, which is the Arizona minimum. 

Readers may recall that was my likely compromise target and it’s likely still in play. The Federal Minimum Wage is $7.25. 

Activists Protest 

“When you have a place that’s broken and not working, and many would say that’s the Senate today, I don’t think the solution is to erode the rules,” she said in an interview after two constituent events in Phoenix.

“I think the solution is for senators to change their behavior and begin to work together, which is what the country wants us to do.”

A “Talking Filibuster” 

Is Senator Joe Manchin bending on filibuster rules? 

Politico comments in Anti-Filibuster Liberals Face a Senate Math Problem.

Achieving lockstep unity among a diverse 50-member caucus to change the rules for a tradition-bound institution is going to be a challenge, to say the least. Just look at Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), who made waves on Sunday by expressing openness to enforcing a “talking filibuster” that requires senators to remain on the floor objecting to a bill, making it more painful for the minority to demand a 60-vote threshold to pass most legislation. 

Manchin’s comments elated progressives and forced the White House to reiterate its “preference” to preserve the filibuster despite a growing number of Democratic bills stalling in the upper chamber. But the gregarious centrist clarified on Tuesday that he continues to support an effective 60-vote requirement for most legislation.

The talking filibuster essentially would require the minority party to hold the floor while objecting to a bill, with a supermajority of 60 votes required for the majority party to overrule it. The majority party could also wait for exhaustion to kick in and, whenever minority senators could no longer hold the floor, overpower the filibuster with a simple 51-vote majority. 46 Senate Democrats supported it in 2011, including Manchin, though many senators’ views have changed since then.

Manchin’s support for a 60-vote threshold to continue, then, would eliminate the central reform envisioned by a classic talking filibuster. 

If you completely understand Manchin’s position, please tell me because I sure don’t know what it is.

US News reports Democrats Eye Filibuster Reform as Support for Elimination Lags

Progressives and a number of Democratic senators want to completely gut the filibuster, a stall tactic employed by the minority party that they see as the biggest hurdle to implementing Biden’s agenda. 

Even as pressure builds to abolish it, there’s currently not enough support within the Democratic Party to go “nuclear.” While many haven’t abandoned those plans, Democrats are also eyeing various reforms, including a return to the “talking filibuster,” which requires the senator holding up a bill to remain physically present and speak on the Senate floor.

Still, the talking filibuster – depending on how it’d be structured – wouldn’t ultimately do much for the majority since the 60-vote threshold would still exist and block their agenda. But Democrats see it as a way to at least force senators to put their opposition on display, while others believe it could possibly limit the number of filibusters because of a time-consuming rule.

The lead political cartoon is from the above article.

Tax Hikes

Axios reports Moderate Democrats Buck Biden Tax Hikes.

Biden’s road to tax hikes may be steeper as Senator Joe Manchin is in play and so is the House.

Two moderate Democratic senators — Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona — have drawn the most attention as potential obstacles to Biden’s agenda. But the president also faces headwinds in the House of Representatives, where Speaker Pelosi can lose just three Democratic votes if Republicans are unified in opposition.

Over the past week, Axios has been interviewing moderate Democratic House members. Several are skeptical about Biden’s tax-and-spend plans, and some were willing to say so on the record.

House Opposition

  • Gottheimer, who co-chairs the bipartisan Problem Solvers Caucus, said he won’t even consider Biden’s tax proposals unless the president agrees to reinstate the State and Local Tax (SALT) deduction capped under former President Trump worth tens of billions every year. “Simply put,” Gottheimer said, “no SALT, no dice.”

  • Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-N.Y.) also told Axios: “I’m not voting for any changes in the tax code unless we reinstate SALT as part of the deal.”

Curiously, those two House Democrats insist on tax cut for their states before they will vote for tax hikes on everyone.

This underscores the fragile nature of Biden’s attempting to ram through legislation. 

Without a change to Filibuster rules, it may be a tough go for Biden. Heck, even a change to filibuster rules might not make for smooth sailing on everything. 

Right now, Sinema is a huge road block on minimum wages, tax hikes, the Filibuster, climate change and other Progressive priorities.

Can that last?

END

Biden Infrastructure Stimulus Will Shrink GDP Over Long-Term, Wharton Analysis Finds

 
WEDNESDAY, APR 07, 2021 – 01:15 PM

Last week, Joe Biden released the American Jobs Plan (AJP), aka the “Infrastructure” plan which proposed $2.3 trillion in new federal spending on various forms of public infrastructure, research and development, workforce training, affordable housing, and caregiving. Later reporting confirmed that the AJP would include an additional $400 billion in clean energy tax credits not specified in the administration’s original announcement.

And while Biden and his handlers have been eager to paint the massive stimulus bill as accretive for both the economy and taxpayers, an analysis conducted by the Penn Wharton Budget Model found that the proposed business tax provisions – which continue past the budget window – will decrease GDP by 0.8% in 2050, relative to current law. Here’s why:

  • the spending provisions of the AJP, in absence of any tax increases, would increase government debt by 4.72% and decrease GDP by 0.33% in 2050, as the crowding out of investment due to larger government deficits outweighs productivity boosts from the new public investments.

  • the tax provisions proposed in the AJP, in the absence of any new spending, would decrease government debt by 11.16 percent in 2050. Despite the reduction in public debt, the AJP’s tax provisions discourage business investment and thus reduce GDP by 0.49 percent in 2050.

Considered together, the model finds that tax and spending provisions of the AJP would increase government debt by 1.7% by 2031 but decrease government debt by 6.4% by 2050. More importantly, the Biden plan ends up decreasing GDP by 0.8% in 2050. In other words, not only is there no benefit from the BIden plan but it will actually detract from growth over the next 4 decades.

Here are the details:

Projected Budgetary Effects

In total, the AJP proposes $2.7 trillion in new federal spending over the next 8 years, 2022 to 2029. The AJP does not specify any spending plans beyond 2029; PWBM therefore assumes that the proposal would not increase federal outlays in 2030 and beyond.

The AJP is funded by proposed increases in business taxes, including:

  • Increasing the corporate tax rate to 28 percent,

  • Establishing a minimum tax on corporate book income,

  • Raising the tax rate on foreign profits,

  • Eliminating the deduction for Foreign Derived Intangible Income (FDII),

  • Eliminating tax preferences for fossil fuels.

The revenue effects of these provisions are shown in Table 1.


Over the 10-year budget window, 2022 to 2031, the AJP raises $2.1 trillion in new tax revenues. Due to a lack of detail, we do not model the AJP’s other tax proposals which would increase tax enforcement against corporations, deny expensing for offshoring jobs, establish a tax credit for onshoring jobs, and encourage other countries to increase their taxation of corporations. The estimates below therefore likely represent a lower bound on revenue raised by the AJP. These revenue effects are estimated under the assumption that phase 2 of the plan will include individual tax changes proposed as part of the Biden campaign.

Projected Economic Effects

Spending

PWBM analyzes the macroeconomic effects of the AJP using our Dynamic OLG Model. Our model treats individual components of the proposal’s $2.7 trillion in new spending either as public investments or as transfers. These spending types have different direct effects on the economy:

Public investments include new spending on transit infrastructure, research and development, and domestic manufacturing supply chains—which make up about $2.1 trillion of the AJP. These are considered investments in “public capital” which enhance the productivity of private capital and labor. Given the similarities between the AJP and the Biden campaign platform, we use the public investment framework described in our Biden platform analysis, assuming spending and building rates in line with a 2016 Congressional Budget Office report.

Transfers include spending on affordable housing access and on home- and community-based care—the other $600 billion of new spending in the AJP. We assume that the affordable housing spending in the AJP generally benefits households with below-median incomes, while caregiving provisions in the AJP—mainly implemented through Medicaid—generally benefit older and Medicaid-eligible households. While they are in effect, transfers to working-age households let individuals work less without consuming less, reducing overall labor supply.

New spending on either public investments or transfers, if financed through increased federal deficits, has the indirect effect of crowding out private investment. That crowding out effect reduces growth in the capital stock and thus GDP.

Table 2 shows the economic effects of only the new spending in the AJP, including both transfers and public investments, considered without the proposal’s tax increases.

Although the plan’s public investments increase the productivity of capital and labor, that productivity boost is not enough to overcome additional crowding out of capital due to increased government deficits. By 2031, the AJP’s spending provisions would increase public debt by 8.16 percent, decrease the capital stock by 1.17 percent, and decrease GDP by 0.25 percent. Over time, more public capital is built and becomes productive, but the resulting increases in productivity are still not enough to overcome the crowding out effects of higher deficits. By 2050, the AJP’s spending provisions increase government debt by 4.72 percent, decrease the capital stock by 1.46 percent, and decrease GDP by 0.33 percent.

Taxes

The tax provisions in the AJP have two direct economic effects: decreasing firms’ incentives to invest and disincentivizing saving by households. The revenue raised by these tax provisions has the indirect effect of decreasing government deficits and thus crowding in private investment.

In isolation, raising the statutory corporate tax rate is expected to increase corporate investment in the near-term, as shown in PWBM’s recent corporate tax estimate. That is because, under the current-law regime of accelerated depreciation, marginal effective tax rates on corporate investment are low regardless of the headline rate. As a result, raising the corporate tax rate does not meaningfully affect the normal return on investment, instead taxing rents and returns from existing capital. However, that positive effect is reversed when an increase to the corporate rate is combined with the AJP’s proposed minimum tax on book income, which reduces the value of depreciation deductions—in turn increasing the tax wedge on investment. The plan’s international tax provisions also increase the overall tax burden on corporate income.

Moreover, the increase in corporate tax rates lowers the after-tax return on equity investment. Households, facing lower after-tax returns, save less which in turn decreases investment and the capital stock.

Table 3 shows the economic effects of the AJP’s tax provisions, considered without the proposal’s spending increases.

Though the revenues raised by the AJP’s tax provisions decrease government debt by 11.16 percent in 2050, the resulting crowding in of capital is outweighed by the direct investment disincentives described above. On net, by 2050 the capital stock ends up 1.52 percent smaller, and GDP is 0.49 percent lower, than under the current law baseline.

The Full AJP

The overall macroeconomic effects of enacting the AJP, including both its spending and tax provisions, are shown in Table 4.

Initially, federal debt increases by 1.7 percent by 2031, as new spending in the AJP outpaces new revenues raised. After the AJP’s new spending ends in 2029, however, its tax increases persist—as a result, federal debt ends up 6.4 percent lower by 2050, relative to the current law baseline. Despite the decline in government debt, the investment-disincentivizing effects of the AJP’s business tax provisions decrease the capital stock by 3 percent in 2031 and 2050. The decline in capital makes workers less productive despite the increase in productivity due to more infrastructure, dragging hourly wages down by 0.7 percent in 2031 and 0.8 percent in 2050. Overall, GDP is 0.9 percent lower in 2031 and 0.8 percent lower in 2050.

END

Cuomo’s new tax bill to hit New Yorkers hard: over 50%.  Expect many to leave the state

(zerohedge)

Cuomo To Hit Richest New Yorkers With Top Tax Rate Over 50%, More Than Most Europeans Pay

 
WEDNESDAY, APR 07, 2021 – 03:30 PM

That giant sucking sound is the richest New Yorkers – tired of virtue signaling in a city that is about to tax them as much as Europe’s socialist paradise – packing up their belongings and bailing for Palm Beach.

Why? Because days after we reported that New York Millionaires are about to be slapped with the highest income tax in the country, surpassing even the liberal utopia that is California, we now have some more details on what will likely be a 50% tax on the richest New Yorkers.

As Bloomberg writes, last August scandal-plagued NY Governor Andrew Cuomo begged the rich to return to the state, saying “‘we’ll go to dinner, I’ll buy you a drink, come over, I’ll cook.” What he didn’t say is that while he would pay for a drink, it’s the rich that would be stuck with the very hefty bill.

Details of said bill emerged on Tuesday when state lawmakers and Cuomo reached an agreement to raise taxes as part of a $212 billion budget deal. Under the deal, the top tax rate would temporarily increase to 9.65% from 8.82% for single filers earning more than $1.1 million. Income between $5 million and $25 million would be taxed at 10.3% and for more than $25 million it would be 10.9%. The new rates would expire in 2027.

And with New York City residents also paying city taxes, the combined top rate for the highest earners would be between 13.5% and 14.8%, surpassing the 13.3% rate in California, currently the highest in the nation, as we reported previously.

Lump in Federal Taxes and the increases would mean that the richest New Yorkers would be hit with a combined marginal rate of 51.8% — higher than levels in some European countries.

So with the highest taxes in the US to look forward to, will (former) New Yorkers rush back to the Big Apple? We doubt it:

“Employers and employees alike are increasingly mobile, and raising taxes on newly mobile taxpayers is a risky proposition,” said Jared Walczak, the vice president of State Projects at the conservative Tax Foundation. “High earners in particular have considerable flexibility, and many already temporarily relocated during the pandemic. Raising tax rates on the most mobile cohort of taxpayers is a good way to lose many of them outright.”

New York’s move is the latest attempt to target the wealthy in the U.S. to fund budget shortfalls or future spending.

Meanwhile, those earning more than $400,000 a year are already bracing for higher federal taxes from the Biden administration, which has also proposed raising the corporate levy to 28% from 21%. However, as Bloomberg explains, increasing levies at the state level though brings a different dynamic.

Prior to Covid-19, there were concerns that residents would leave when a tax overhaul passed by Republicans and signed by President Trump in 2017 capped state and local tax deductions at $10,000.

Then the pandemic hit and some of the most affluent people in the city fled to other parts of the state, such as the Hamptons, while others moved to Florida or Texas, which don’t levy income taxes. The exodus has fired up real estate markets and even led New York City restaurateurs to open Palm Beach locations.

Now, with the vaccine increasingly prevalent, there are signs some people are returning… but not many if all they have to look forward to are huge tax spikes. As such, there’s concern that many of NY’s richest will make their moves permanent, especially as low-tax states court hedge funds and banks.

“Cuomo is making a bet that the wealthy won’t leave the state even if he raises taxes on them,” said Andrew Silverman, a tax analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence. “That’s a risky bet. It’s almost certain that people will leave the state and the city as a result of these tax increases. What’s different this time is that jobs are so mobile that people, especially wealthy people, don’t have to work where they live.”

The total number of those leaving may be tiny compared to the overall population, but they are the ones paying the most taxes and New York City and New York state get a disproportionate share of tax revenue from the wealthy. The state is home to more than 90 billionaires, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, and the city has more than 30,000 millionaires.

The top 1% of New Yorkers reported a combined $133.3 billion in income in 2018, the latest year of data available, according to the city’s Independent Budget Office. They paid $4.9 billion in local income taxes, making up 42.5% of total income tax collected by the city.

In 2018, 1,786 tax filers earned more than $10 million or more — and the top 1% — about 38,700 taxpayers — earned almost as much as the bottom 90% of New Yorkers.

It remains unclear if New York state will get help from the Biden administration to repeal the cap on the SALT deduction; so far it appears that Biden is unwilling to make this concession which would infuriate the socialist wing of the Democrat party.

iv) Swamp commentaries

END

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories./ of the day

Schumer somehow got the Senate parliamentary to agree that Biden’s infrastructure scheme could be passed in reconciliation, which would bypass the 60 votes needed to pass major legislation.  This was a factor in Monday’s rally.  However, this upset less-radical Dems because they could no longer let the GOP do the dirty work (kill the bill) and suffer MSM scorn and any political fallout.

Now, the less radical Dems realize that if the bill passes as Biden’s Team has drafted it, there will be enormous political fallout in 2022 and beyond for the massive tax hikes, inflation, and socialism.  So, some Democrat senators on Monday night began proposing amendments to Biden’s bill that would mitigate the various tax hikes.  This weighed on stocks on Tuesday.

Biden’s Economic Plan Hinges on Party Unity After Procedural Win

  • Senate ruling gives Democrats several options to package plan
  • Tax policy is already emerging as a stress point for Democrat

Democrats could have at least three more chances in 2021 to pass legislation with a simple majority, instead of the 60 votes needed to overcome a Republican filibuster, thanks to a Monday ruling from Senate Parliamentarian Elizabeth MacDonough…
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-06/biden-plan-still-faces-senate-hurdles-even-after-procedural-win

China Asks Banks to Curtail Credit for Rest of Year
Officials are shifting attention from pandemic to bubble risks
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-06/china-is-said-to-ask-banks-to-curtail-credit-for-rest-of-year?sref=ZVajCYcV

While China tries to curtail bubbles, the US and the Fed are blowing bubbles.  Which policy will prevail and what will the short and long-term consequences be?

@CNBC: “We are going to see slower hiring, less investing in the U.S., and I would predict we will see a second wave of U.S. companies inverting or moving their headquarters overseas,” says @RepKevinBrady on Biden’s plan to raise the corporate tax rate.

GOP @RepHerrell: If Washington Democrats get their way, Congress will have enacted almost $10 trillion in spending in a single year – more than the total combined wages paid to all American workers each year. [This is over 50% of US GDP!!!]

Dems and their allies are engaged in a massive social-economic experiment.  They crashed the US economy to remove Trump and implement a socialist agenda.  They are betting that by creating a US depression, society will not only welcome, but demand, a socialist agenda that exceeds FDR’s New Deal.

China warns Japan to not follow suit after US sanctions over Xinjiang, Hong Kong https://t.co/jtsGSgisrV

The defensive trade appeared on Tuesday: Bonds and precious metals rallied sharply; techs and Fangs rallied smartly.  Oil rebounded from its Monday plunge, but copper tumbled.  Geopolitical angst causes precious metals, US bonds and oil to rally while industrial commodities and stocks decline.

China is intimidating Taiwan while Russia is moving on Ukraine.  In the US, no one knows who (Harris, Rice, Obama) is making the critical presidential decisions.

@AlexKokcharov: This video was reportedly filmed in Krasnodar region in southern Russia today, 6 April: another indicator of Russian military buildup close to Ukraine’s borders. [military vehicles and equipment being moved by rail] https://twitter.com/AlexKokcharov/status/1379479987896602625

Russia’s Army Begins Massive ‘Combat Readiness’ Inspection as Ukraine Tensions Soar
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/russias-army-begins-massive-combat-readiness-inspection-ukraine-tensions-soar

Do you think that Putin is the kind of guy, with his KGB background, that would blackmail the Bidens over illicit Ukraine dealings?

@Euan_MacDonald: At least three large military cargoes have been delivered by U.S. planes and ships to Ukraine over the past 10 days. According to the Odessa newspaper Dumskaya, the roughly 350 tons of cargo included 35 Humvee military vehicles.

Bitcoin declined sharply because a WSJ story highlighted China’s digital currency development.  A handful of Chinese investors/operators have controlled Bitcoin for years, for illicit transactions.

China Creates Its Own Digital Currency, a First for Major Economy
A cyber yuan stands to give Beijing power to track spending in real time, plus money that isn’t linked to the dollar-dominated global financial system – It is expected to give China’s government vast new tools to monitor both its economy and its people…designing it to be untethered to the global financial system, where the U.S. dollar has been king since World War II…
https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-creates-its-own-digital-currency-a-first-for-major-economy-11617634118

@MariaBartiromo: China’s cryptocurrency will ‘offset’ US sanctions: Jonathan Ward https://t.co/xGPwBK4EPj

Big ECB climate change role may be step too far warns Wunsch
Trying to impact market pricing could inflate bubbles and risked encroaching beyond the ECB’s traditional sphere into politics, Wunsch, a member of the ECB’s Governing Council, said.  “In the short term I would be more concerned with green bubbles than markets not pricing the climate risk.”…
    “Beyond that I don’t think we really have the right instruments. The instruments that are most effective to address climate change are CO2 taxes or equivalent like the ETS scheme, regulation, support for R&D, he said. “Those instruments are in the hands of authorities.”
https://www.kitco.com/news/2021-04-06/Big-ECB-climate-change-role-may-be-step-too-far-warns-Wunsch.html

Gee, somehow the Fed has the tools to address climate change that the ECB lacks.  When will someone ask Powell what those tools are?

@tomselliott: Dr. Fauci on Texas Covid cases dropping despite ignoring his advice on masks/social distancing: “It can be confusing, because … often you have to wait a few weeks before you see the effect … I’m not really quite sure. It could be they’re doing things outdoors.”
https://twitter.com/tomselliott/status/1379399850895237124

@CortesSteve: Fascist Gnome, MD is running out of excuses for his prescribed lockdown tyranny…

Dr. Benjamin Braddock @GraduatedBen: Fauci still doesn’t understand that spread doesn’t primarily occur in the community, but in private/institutional settings. Hospitals, nursing homes, gatherings in homes, church services. Settings where people are in proximity for significant periods of time.

@TheBabylonBee: Dr. Fauci Predicts at Least 3 More COVID Variants May Be Required to Completely Break America’s Spirit

Today – We opined in yesterday’s missive that “stocks need to rest and retrench.  Barring unexpected good news, stocks should have trouble today after the usual early buying by day traders.”  We added that ESMs on Monday night “quickly tumbled into negative territory on a report that China conducted a naval exercise near Taiwan.  A problem for stocks today could be discerning traders that read the stories about Democratic senators’ resistance to Biden’s proposed fiscal scheme and his tax hikes…”

AP: MLB to relocate All-Star Game to Denver’s Coors Field after pulling it from Atlanta over Georgia voting laws.

 

House Judiciary GOP @JudiciaryGOP: Colorado has voter ID. What a joke, @MLB.

@ArthurSchwartz: Atlanta is 52% black. Denver is 10% black. And Colorado requires voter ID.

GOP Rep @SteveScalise: Reminder: The 2022 Olympics is being held in China—a communist country notorious for actual voter suppression and human rights abuses.  Will all the woke corporations be pulling their sponsorship of the Olympics?

U.S. is discussing with allies a joint boycott of 2022 Beijing Olympics, State Department says –  BBG

MLB is blaming the WH for its ill-conceived decision to move its All-Star Game from Atlanta.

@KatiePavlich: Jen Psaki tried to distance President Biden from the MLB decision to pull the All Star game from Georgia, but the MLB website specifically refers to Biden’s criticism before the announcement     https://www.mlb.com/news/2021-all-star-game-draft-relocated

GOP Rep @MikeLoychik: If I have to show ID to buy allergy pills you can show an ID to vote.

Gun ownership among Black Americans is soaring – “In times of uncertainty people want to be able to have the means to defend themselves,” a law professor said…  http://hill.cm/HVvk1dq

As we keep harping, leftists’ goal to curtail law enforcement in big cities harms minorities most because they are overwhelmingly the direct and indirect (business flight or encumberment) victims of crime.

Will Biden’s Return to the Iran Deal Abandon American Prisoners Held There — Again?
The Biden administration is planning to do exactly what the Obama administration did just over five years ago: Make a deal with Iran that abandons Americans held hostage there…
https://www.nationalreview.com/2021/04/will-bidens-return-to-the-iran-deal-abandon-american-prisoners-held-there-again/

@disclosetv: Iran rejects the offer to unfreeze $1 billion of its assets in return for 20% uranium enrichment suspension at #JCPOA talks in Vienna.  [Iran knows it is dealing with chumps!]

@AnnCoulter: George Floyd’s alleged drug dealer invoking the fifth in anticipation of possible murder prosecution for giving him the drugs that killed him.

@charlescwcooke: [DemMayor Kerner says that he offered to talk to 60 Minutes but CBS declined. He says Palm Beach County asked for the Publix relationship, and that CBS knew that but “left it out because it kneecaps their narrative.” And he says that the media is “hellbent on dividing us.”

Biden Admin Considers Restarting Border Wall Construction To ‘Plug Gaps’ Amid Biden’s Border Crisis: Report [How embarrassing!  But Dems & the MSM are shameless.] http://dlvr.it/Rx66Wh

Biden Disapproval Soars as Over 170,000 Illegal Immigrants Flood The US in March, Most in a Decade – 40% disapprove of Biden’s handling of the situation of unaccompanied children at the border and only 24% approve… https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/biden-disapproval-soars-over-170000-illegal-immigrants-flood-us-march-most-decade

Let us close out the night with this offering courtesy of Greg Hunter and Gerald Celente

(Greg Hunter)

Anti-Vax & Anti-Tax – 2 Huge Trends of 2021 –Gerald Celente

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com

Gerald Celente, a renowned trends researcher and publisher of “The Trends Journal,” is back to talk about two of the biggest trends taking shape for 2021.  One revolves around Covid-19 (CV-19) and the experimental so-called vaccine, otherwise known as the “jab.”  The other is a rebounding economy destined to crash.  First, the CV-19 jab, as Celente explains, “There are going to be new political movements:  anti-tax, anti-vax, anti-immigration and anti-establishment.  We are going to see a big anti-vax movement.  To make the point on how they are going to be selling this . . . They are selling it now that there is going to be a new strain of CV-19, and you better prepare for it.  It’s going to happen every year, and you are going to have to get vaccinated.  So, we are going to start seeing a big anti-vax movement.”

The economy in blue states is performing much worse that in Red states, and that is fueling big government to raise big taxes.  Celente says, “The streets out here in New York are dead. . . . They are dead.  Now, they are raising the taxes.  The first thing they did was tolls.  The next thing they are going to do is a gas tax, soda tax, sales tax, property tax and school tax.  Business is dead.  New York City is dead.  Brooklyn is dead.  Park Slope is a slope alright, a downhill slope.  The office occupancy rate in New York City is still at 14%.  All the businesses that depend on commuters are gone, and this isn’t coming back.”

All the economic news is not bad.  Celente is forecasting, “This is the other important thing.  There is going to be an economic rebound.  It’s going to happen because all of the cheap money they are pumping into the system.  We are going to start seeing inflation really skyrocket.  They are going to have to raise interest rates.  We had a cover on The Trends Journal, and it showed two big needles.  One injection is the vaccine, the other is the money junkies injecting money into the system.  They are drug dealers and money junkies.  The money junkies need cheap money from the Federal Reserve to keep gambling.  They are going to have to raise interest rates.  When the equity markets crash, people will be forced to wake up to know how bad it is. . . . It’s artificially propped up, and when the markets crash, the reality will be felt.  The reality is already being felt by the hundreds of millions of people around the world whose lives and livelihoods have been destroyed.  When the markets crash, we are going to be living in hell on earth. . . . We are heading into the Greatest Depression, and you better prepare now.  The other biggest trend is there is going to be a ‘vax war.’  There is no question about it.”

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes One-on-One with Gerald Celente, publisher of The Trends Journal.

(To Donate to USAWatchdog.com Click Here)

 

 

end

I WILL SEE YOU THURSDAY NIGHT

 

2 comments

  1. Henrik I · · Reply

    “MAY OPEN INTEREST FOR SILVER REFUSES TO CONTRACT AND REMAINS AT 116,000 CONTRACTS”

    Whats the liklyhood that half the contract will stand for delivery? Or what is the “common” % that stand for delivery?

    Like

  2. […] by Harvey Organ of Harvey Organ Blog […]

    Like

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