MAY 25/GOLD HAD A STELLAR DAY UP $12.25 TO $1896.70//SILVER UP 16 CENTS TO $27.95//COMEX GOLD INVENTORY HOLDS AT 5.90 TONNES/SILVER DROPS AT BIT TO 36.560 MILLION OZ//FRONT JUNE OI FOR GOLD: A VERY HIGH 153,343 WITH 3 READING DAYS TO GO BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE (LAST YR A RECORD 146.TONNES OF GOLD STOOD FOR DELIVERY)//CORONAVIRUS UPDATES/VACCINE UPDATES//REVERSE REPO UPDATE: SKYRM//USA HOME PRICES SKYROCKET//HOME SALES PLUMMET AS COMMODITY PRICES DRIVE UP PRICES OF HOMES//CONFIDENCE LEVEL IN THE USA SINKS//INFLATION WATCH; HOME APPLICANCES SKYROCKET IN PRICE MAKING HOME PRICES UNAFFORDABLE/SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

GOLD:$1896.70   UP $12.25   The quote is London spot price

Silver:$27.95  UP 16 CENTS   London spot price ( cash market)

your data.

 
 
 

Closing access prices:  London spot

i)Gold : $1899.25 LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

ii)SILVER:  $28.00//LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

Comex options expiry tomorrow

LBMA OTC options expiry on Friday which is also first day notice

 

PLATINUM AND PALLADIUM PRICES BY GOLD-EAGLE (MORE ACCURATE)

 

 

PLATINUM  $1196.80  UP $15.75

PALLADIUM: 2771.80 UP $21.31  PER OZ.

 

 

James McShirley on the pricing of gold eagles/and silver eagle

James Mc late this afternoon… May 3

Coin premiums to spot widening- Silver Eagles look like around 50%+ to spot. Gold Eagles +$170 to spot. How long can they keep this derivatives charade going?

Jim McShirley

May 5: Jim McShirley:

Meanwhile the separation between physical and spot continues to increase. Gold Eagles are now showing +$180 or more to spot on several popular sites. Silver Eagles are +$13 and up to spot. If you ignore the ticker going by on cable news gold is nearly $2k in the real world, silver $40. That’s still a pittance, but nothing like MSM is presenting to the public.

may 17  Jim McShirley

Forgot to mention the Gold Eagle physical to spot widened another $5 today, now around +$185 or more. Spot has practically become like the GLD, which is little more than a heavily-discounted tracker to the real stuff. Gold coins are indeed MUCH closer to all-time highs than the Crimex price. It will be interesting to see if this keeps blowing out until spot prices are meaningless.

May 19: James McShirley

Coin premiums to spot continue to widen. Gold Eagles blew out another $20 and are now +$200 and up to spot. Despite the futures selloff Silver Eagles are holding steady around $40 and up. Physical buying is belying the Crimex racket. T

Editorial of The New York Sun | February 1, 2021

end

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COMEX DATA

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

receiving today 0/11

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: MAY 2021 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,884.600000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 05/24/2021 DELIVERY DATE: 05/26/2021
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 10
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 9
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 1
732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 2
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 11 11
MONTH TO DATE: 1,748

ISSUED: 0

Goldman Sachs:  stopped: 0

 
 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  MAY. CONTRACT: 11 NOTICE(S) FOR 1100 OZ  (0.0342 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  1748 NOTICES FOR 174,800 OZ  (5.4370 tonnes) 

SILVER//MAY CONTRACT

61 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 305,000  OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month  : 7245 for 36,225,000  oz

 

BITCOIN MORNING QUOTE  $37,237 DOWN 2237  DOLLARS 

 

BITCOIN AFTERNOON QUOTE.:$37,501 DOWN 2765 DOLLARS

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

GLD AND SLV INVENTORIES:

GLD AND SLV INVENTORIES:

Gold

WITH GOLD UP $13.24 AND NO PHYSICAL TO BE FOUND ANYWHERE:

WITH ALL REFINER CLOSED//MEXICO ORDERING ALL MINES SHUT:   WHERE ARE THEY GETTING THE “PHYSICAL?

 A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD” A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.30 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//

WITH RESPECT TO GLD WITHDRAWALS:  (OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS)

GOLD IS “RETURNED” TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHO ARE CALLING IN THEIR LEASES: THE GOLD NEVER LEAVES THE B OF ENGLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BANK IS PROTECTING ITSELF IN CASE OF COMMERCIAL FAILURE

THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD!!

GLD: 1,046.12 TONNES OF GOLD//

Silver

AND WITH NO SILVER AROUND  TODAY: WITH SILVER  UP 16 CENTS

NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV

WITH REGARD TO SILVER WITHDRAWALS FROM THE SLV:

THE SILVER WITHDRAWALS ARE ACTUALLY “RETURNED” TO JPM, AS JPMORGAN CALLS IN ITS LEASES WITH THE SLV FUND.  (THE STORY IS THE SAME AS THE BANK OF ENGLAND’S GOLD). THE SILVER NEVER LEAVES JPMORGAN’S VAULTS. THEY ARE CALLING IN THEIR LEASES FOR FEAR OF SOLVENCY ISSUES.

INVENTORY RESTS AT:

574.818  MILLION OZ./SLV

xxxxx

GLD closing price//NYSE 177.91 UP $1.56 OR  0.88%

XXXXXXXXXXXXX

SLV closing price NYSE 25.98 UP $0.23 OR 0.89%

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

 
 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

THE COMEX OI IN SILVER FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 606 CONTRACTS FROM 178,848 UP TO 179,454, AND CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020. THE GAIN IN OI OCCURRED WITH OUR STRONG  $0.35 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX  ON MONDAY. IT SEEMS THAT THE GAIN IN COMEX OI IS PRIMARILY DUE TO SOME BANKER AND ALGO  SHORT COVERING AS OUR BANKER FRIENDS ARE GETTING QUITE SCARED OF BASEL III COMING JUNE 28/2021 !//STRONG REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//.. COUPLED AGAINST A STRONG EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. WE ALSO  HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION 

I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL:

IN SILVER ONLY 16 CONTRACT DIFFERENTIAL…MAY 25.2021  (620 GAIN VS 606 GAIN)

WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A SMALL  NUMBER OF  COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 180,, AS WE HAD THE FOLLOWING ISSUANCE: MAY:  0, JUNE: 0 JULY 180 AND ZERO ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE 180 CONTRACTS. THE BANKERS ARE NOW BEING BITTEN BY THOSE SERIAL FORWARDS (EFP’S CIRCULATING IN LONDON) AS THEY ARE NOW BEING EXERCISED AND COMING BACK TO NEW YORK FOR REDEMPTION OF METAL.  THE COST TO SERVICE THESE SERIAL FORWARDS IS HIGH TO OUR BANKERS  BUT THEY HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO ISSUE A FEW OF THEM! SILVER IS IN BACKWARDATION AND AS SUCH THE DANGER TO OUR BANKERS IS LONDONERS WILL PURCHASE CHEAPER FUTURES METAL OVER HERE AND THEN TAKE DELIVERY.

HISTORY OF SILVER OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR THE PAST 33 MONTHS.

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

7.32     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

2.630     MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOV.

20.970   MILLION OZ  FINAL STANDING IN DEC

2020

5.075     MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JAN

1.480    MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN FEB

23.005  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAR 

4.660  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR APRIL

45.220 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAY***(5THHIGHEST RECORDED STANDING FOR SILVER)

2.205  MILLION OF FINAL STANDING FOR JUNE

86.470  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JULY…RECORD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED

6.475 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN AUGUST

55.400 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN SEPT (3RD HIGHEST RECORDED STANDING)

8.900 MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT.

3.950 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN NOV.

46.685 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR DEC. (4TH HIGHEST RECORDED STANDING)

2021

60 MILLION FINAL STANDING FOR JAN 2021

12.020  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR FEB 2021

58.425 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MARCH 2021//2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED

14.935 MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING FOR APRIL

36.520 MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING FOR MAY 

 

MONDAY, AGAIN OUR CROOKS USED COPIOUS PAPER TRYING TO LIQUIDATE SILVER’S PRICE …AND THEY WERE
UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN ,(IT ROSE BY $0.35).OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE ANY SILVER LONGS AS  WE HAD A GOOD GAIN OF 786 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.  THE GAIN WAS DUE TO i) SOME BANKER/ALGO SHORT COVERING// WE ALSO HAD  ii) STRONG REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//.    iii)  A SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) A VERY STRONG INITIAL  SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 37.700 MILLION OZ AND THEN FALLING FOR SEVERAL DAYS WITH TODAY DECREASING TO 36.520 MILLION OZ ON DAY 17 AS NO SILVER WAS AVAILABLE ON THE ENGLISH SIDE OF THE POND OR ON THIS SIDE!, v) GOOD COMEX OI GAIN /
.
YOU CAN BET THE FARM THAT OUR BANKERS  ARE DESPERATE TO LIQUIDATE THEIR HUGE SHORT POSITIONS IN SILVER..
 
 
 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

 

MAY

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY /FOR MONTH OF A MAY:

25,840 CONTRACTS (FOR 16 TRADING DAY(S) TOTAL 25,840 CONTRACTS) OR 129.200 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1722 CONTRACTS OR 8.613 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF MAY: 129.200  MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON

JAN EFP ACCUMULATION FINAL:  113.735 MILLION OZ

FEB EFP ACCUMULATION FINAL:   208.18 MILLION OZ (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

MAR EFP ACCUMULATION SO FAR: : 103.450 MILLION OZ  (DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//FEARS OF EFP CONTRACTS BEING EXERCISED FOR METAL)

APRIL: 84.730 MILLION OZ  (SILVER IS NOW IN SEVERE BACKWARDATION AND THUS DRAMATICALLY FEWER ISSUANCE OF EFP’S)

MAY: 129.200 MILLION OZ. (SILVER IS STILL IN SEVER BACKWARDATION BUT EFP ISSUANCE DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN!!)

 

RESULT: WE HAD A GOOD INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 606, WITH OUR  $0.35 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ///MONDAY .…THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A SMALL SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 180 CONTRACTS WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS.

TODAY WE HAD A GOOD SIZED GAIN OF 786 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES (WITH OUR $0.35 GAIN IN PRICE)//THE DOMINANT FEATURE TODAY// SOME BANKER SHORTCOVERING/  AND A VERY STRONG INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR MAY. (37.770 MILLION OZ) FOLLOWED  TODAY WITH ANOTHER 60,000 OZ LOSS  …. SO OUR NEW STANDING LOWERS TO 36,520,000 OZ.  

 

THE TALLY//EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

i.e  180  OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s)TOGETHER WITH A GOOD SIZED INCREASE OF 622 OI COMEX CONTRACTS.AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND HAPPENED WITH OUR $0.35 GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER/AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $27.79//MONDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY. 

WE HAD 61 NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR 305,000 OZ

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018. AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.70//TODAY’S RECORD OF 244,705 WAS SET WITH A PRICE OF: 18.91 (FEB 25/2020)

AND YET, WITH THE SILVER IN BACKWARDATION (INDICATING SCARCITY), WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 
 
 
 

GOLD

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A SMALL SIZED SIZED 2461 CONTRACTS TO 530,882 ,,AND FURTHER FROM OUR NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY:  1168 CONTRACTS.

THE SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI CAME DESPITE OUR RISE IN PRICE  OF $8.25///COMEX GOLD TRADING//MONDAY.AS IN SILVER WE MUST HAVE HAD HUGE BANKER/ALGO SHORT COVERING ACCOMPANYING OUR FAIR SIZED EXCHANGE FOR  PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. WE ALSO HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AS WE HAD A SMALL SIZED GAIN OF 768 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.   WE ALSO HAD A STRONG INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR MAY AT 3.530 TONNES TO WHICH WE HAD A SMALL LOSS OF 400 OZ ON DAY NO 15 AND NOW 5.321 TONNES ARE STANDING. THIS FOLLOWED A STRONG APRIL AT 95.331 TONNES. 

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $8.25 WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD A VOLUME OF 0    4 -GC CONTRACTS//OPEN INTEREST  0//

WE HAD A SMALL SIZED GAIN OF 768 OI CONTRACTS (2.38 TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. 

 

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 3220 CONTRACTS:

CONTRACT  AND JUNE:  1771; AUGUST: 1758  ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO//TOTAL: 3220 The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 530,882. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EXCHANGE DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 768 CONTRACTS 2461 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 3220 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 768 CONTRACTS O 2.38 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (3220) ACCOMPANYING THE SMALL SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI 2461 OI): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES:  1927 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1 HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING/BIS MANIPULATION! AS OUR BANKERS ARE RUNNING FROM DODGE AND CONSIDERABLE ALGO SHORT COVERING ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR MAY AT 3.530 TONNES//FOLLOWED BY A SMALL LOSS OF 400 OZ ON DAY 17 //NEW STANDING FOR MAY:  5.521 TONNES 

3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION,  /// ;4) SMALL COMEX OI LOSS AND 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL AND ….ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR GAIN IN GOLD PRICE TRADING MONDAY//$8.25!!.

SPREADING OPERATIONS/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD  (WE SWITCH OVER TO GOLD ON MAY  1)

FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS:

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED IN GOLD  AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF JUNE.

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

 
 

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

.

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO GOLD AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX SILVER OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL. HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY FOR SILVER:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF MAY. BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN GOLD WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (MAY), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

 
 
 
 
 
 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2021 INCLUDING TODAY

MAY

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF MAY : 67,295, CONTRACTS OR 6,729,500 oz OR 209.31 TONNES (16 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 4205 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 16 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 209.31 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2020, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 209.31/3550 x 100% TONNES =5.88% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO DATE:
 
JANUARY: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)
 
FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..
 
 
MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN///IT SURPASSED JANUARY!!)

 

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        209.31 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, ROSE BY A GOOD SIZED 606 CONTRACTS FROM 178,986 UP TO 179,454 AND FURTHER FROM OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 3/4 YEARS AGO.  

 

EFP ISSUANCE 180 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 MAY: 0 AND JUNE: 0, JULY 180: ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  180 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI GAIN OF 606 CONTRACTSAND ADD TO THE 180 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S, WE OBTAIN A GOOD SIZED GAIN OF 786 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 3.93 MILLION  OZ, OCCURRED WITH OUR $0.35 GAIN IN PRICE///

 

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL..THE EVIDENCE IS CLEAR: HUGE AMOUNTS OF PHYSICAL STANDING FOR BOTH  SILVER AND GOLD .

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Gold

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge + OTHER COMMENTARIES

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)TUESDAY MORNING/ MONDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED  UP 84.06 PTS OR 2.40%   //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 498.60 PTS OR 2.30%      /The Nikkei closed UP 189.39 pts or 0.67%  //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 1.00%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP AT 6.4054 /Oil UP TO 65.63 dollars per barrel for WTI and 68.22 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN EXCEPT LONDON   //  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.4054. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.3986   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING  STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

NORTH KOREA//USA/OUTLINE

END

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3 C CHINA

CHINA VS USA// vs EUROPE

 

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

OUTLINE
 

COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 2491 CONTRACTS TO 530,882 MOVING FURTHER FROM THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020).  AND THIS COMEX DECREASE OCCURRED DESPITE OUR STRONG GAIN OF $8.25 IN GOLD PRICING MONDAY’S COMEX TRADINGWE ALSO HAD A FAIR EFP ISSUANCE (3220 CONTRACTS). …AS THEY WERE PAID HANDSOMELY  NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AND SETTLE FOR CASH.  

WE NORMALLY HAVE WITNESSED  EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS. IT SEEMS THAT ARE BANKERS FRIENDS ARE EXERCISING EFP’S FROM LONDON AND NOW THEY ARE LOATHE TO ISSUE NEW ONES.  

 

(SEE BELOW)

WE  HAD 0    4 -GC VOLUME//open interest REMAINS AT   0

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 3220 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  ;: , JUNE:  1771 & JULY 0 & AUGUST: 1758 AND THEN DECEMBER:  0 CONTRACTS & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 3220  CONTRACTS .WITH GOLD STILL IN BACKWARDATION

 

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION,  EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A SMALL  SIZED 768  TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 3220 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE LOST A SMALL SIZED COMEX OI OF 2461 CONTRACTS.WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR MAY   (5.521) WHICH FOLLOWED  (95.331 TONNES) IN APRIL, WHICH FOLLOWED MARCH:  (30.205 TONNES) WHICH FOLLOWED FEB (113.424 TONNES)  WHICH FOLLOWED OUR STRONG LEVEL OF JAN 2021 GOLD . ((6.500 TONNES).  

THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT ROSE $8.25)., BUT  WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING ANY LONGS AS WE A SMALL SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 768 CONTRACTS.  THE TOTAL GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES REGISTERED 2.38 TONNES,ACCOMPANYING OUR STRONG GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR MAY (5.521 TONNES)..I  STRONGLY BELIEVE THAT OUR BANKER FRIENDS ARE GETTING QUITE NERVOUS.  THE HUGE GAIN IN COMEX OI IS DUE TO BANKER SHORT COVERING IN A BIG WAY.  THEY ARE LOOKING OVER THEIR SHOULDERS AND WITNESSING MASSIVE SILVER/GOLD SHORTAGES THAT CANNOT BE COVERED. THEY ARE TRYING TO FLEE IN HASTE “FROM DODGE”.

THE BIS REMOVED 1168 CONTRACTS FROM COMEX TRADES. THESE WERE REMOVED AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT. 

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES :: 768 CONTRACTS OR  76800 OZ OR 2.38  TONNES

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT COMMODITY FUTURES OPEN INTEREST SHOULD APPROXIMATE 3% OF TOTAL PRODUCTION.  IN GOLD THE WORLD PRODUCES AROUND 3500 TONNES PER YEAR BUT ONLY 2200 TONNES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE WEST (THUS EXCLUDING RUSSIA, CHINA ETC..WHO KEEP 100% OF THEIR PRODUCT.
 
THUS IN GOLD WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:  530,882 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS X 100 OZ PER CONTRACT = 53.08 MILLION OZ/32,150 OZ PER TONNE =  1651 TONNES

 

THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST REPRESENTS 1651/2200 OR 75.04% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF GOLD.

 
 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX GOLD TODAY:469,188 contracts// volume /HUGE ////volumes used in raid today   //

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  247,387 contracts// –good 

//most of our traders have left for London

 

MAY 25 /2021

 
INITIAL STANDINGS FOR MAY COMEX GOLD
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
 
 
18,610.340 OZ
Brinks
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz  
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz
 
18,479.034 OZ
 
HSBC
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
No of oz served (contracts) today
11  notice(s)
 
1100 OZ
(0.0342 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)
27 contracts
(2700 oz)
 
0.0839 TONNES
 
 
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
1748 notices
174,800 OZ
5.4370 TONNES
 
 
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz
 

We had 0 deposit into the dealer

 
 
 
total deposit:  nil oz    
 
 
 

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had 1 deposit into the customer account
i) Into HSBC:  18,479.034
 
 
TOTAL CUSTOMER DEPOSITS: 18,479/034  oz
 
 
 
 
 
 
We had 1 withdrawals….
i) Out of Brinks: 18,610.340 oz
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
total withdrawals 18,610.340 oz
a net: .004 tonnes leaves the comex
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

We had  1  kilobar transactions (1 out of 4 transactions)

ADJUSTMENTS  0//customer to dealer

Brinks:  103.970 oz

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

The front month of MAY registered a total of 38 CONTRACTS for a LOSS of 38 contracts. We had 34 notices filed on MONDAY so we LOST  4 contracts or an additional  400 oz will NOT stand for delivery in this non active delivery month of May as they morphed into London based forwards and accepted a fiat bonus for their effort. 

 

 
 
 
JUNE LOST A STRONG 25,357 CONTRACTS DOWN TO  152,190.  .(AND THIS IS THE FRONT MONTH THAT WE WILL PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO!)  FOR COMPARISON ON MAY 26/2020:  167,816 OI WITH A DROP OF 33,482 CONTRACTS.
WE HAVE 3 MORE READING DAYS THIS MONTH/2021 COMPARED TO 3 MORE DAYS LAST YR/2020.
INITIALLY ON JUNE 1/2020: 146.60 TONNES OF GOLD STOOD FOR DELIVERY.
 
JULY GAINED 129 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 1682.
 
AUGUST GAINED A huge 21,103 CONTRACTS UP TO 302,913

We had 11 notice(s) filed today for 1100  oz

FOR THE MAY 2021 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and  0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 11  contract(s) of which 0  notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 6 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notices received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the MAY /2021. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (1748) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  (MAY:  38 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today 11 x 100 oz per contract equals 177,500 OZ OR 5.521 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this  active month of MAY

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the MAY contract month:

No of notices filed so far (1748) x 100 oz+  38)  OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (34} x 100 oz} which equals 177,500 oz standing OR 5.521 TONNES in this  active delivery month of MAY.

We lost  400 oz standing for delivery at the comex.  

 

 

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

450,514.371, oz NOW PLEDGED  march 5/2021/HSBC  13.626 TONNES

227,531.970 PLEDGED  MANFRA 7..07 TONNES

288,378.262, oz  JPM  8.35 TONNES

1,166,051.732 oz pledged June 12/2020 Brinks/36.26 TONNES

86,294.813, oz Pledged August 21/regular account 2.68 tonnes JPMORGAN

6,308.08 oz International Delaware:  .196 tonnes

192.906 oz Malca

total pledged gold:  2,225,272.134 oz                                     69.21 tonnes

 

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES…. WE HAVE 472.45 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS i.e. 5.521 tonnes

CALCULATION OF REGISTERED THAT CAN BE SETTLED UPON:

total registered or dealer  17,470,932.785 oz or 543.41 tonnes
 
 
total weight of pledged:  2,225,272,134 oz or 69.21 tonnes
 
thus:
 
registered gold that can be used to settle upon: 15,245,660.0 (472,45 tonnes) 
 
 
 
 
true registered gold  (total registered – pledged tonnes  15,245,660.0 (472.45 tonnes)
 
total eligible gold: 17,103,269.883 oz   (531.98 tonnes)
 
 
total registered, pledged  and eligible (customer) gold 34,574,113.727 oz or 1,075.40 tonnes (INCLUDES 4 GC GOLD)
 
 

total 4 GC gold:   126.34 tonnes

total gold net of 4 GC:  949.06 tonnes

end

I have compiled  data with respect to registered (or dealer) gold taken on first day notice for each of the past 24 months

The data begins on first day notice for the May month taken on the last day of July 2018. and it continues to present day.

I then took, how many deliveries were recorded by the CME for each and every month.  I also included for reference the price of gold on first day notice.

The first graph is a logarithmic  graph and the second graph, linear.

You can see the huge explosion of registered gold at the comex along with deliveries.

 
 
THE DATA AND GRAPHS:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
END

 

 
 
MAY25/2021
 
 

 

And now for the wild silver comex results

INITIAL STANDING FOR SILVER//MAY

MAY. SILVER COMEX CONTRACT MONTH//INITIAL STANDING

Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
521,089.323 oz
 
 
CNT
JPM
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
185,040.710 oz
 
cnt
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
whatever enters the comex faults
eaves
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
No of oz served today (contracts)
61
 
CONTRACT(S)
(305,000 OZ)
 
No of oz to be served (notices)
59 contracts
 (295,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  7245 contracts

 

36,225,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
 
We had 0 deposit into the dealer 
 

total dealer deposits:   nil        oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had  1 deposit into customer account (ELIGIBLE ACCOUNT)

i) Into CNT: 185,040.710 oz

 
 
 
 
 
 
 

JPMorgan now has 187.007 million oz of  total silver inventory or 52.85% of all official comex silver. (187.007 million/353.784 million

total customer deposits today 185,040.710   oz

we had 2 withdrawals

i) out of Delaware:  1006.000 oz

 

ii)  Out of JPMORGAN: 520,083.323  

 

 
 
 
 

total withdrawals  521,089.323   oz

 
 

adjustments//3

ALL DEALER TO CUSTOMER

1.BRINKS:  1,129,157.100 OZ

2. CNT: 1,270,202.152 OZ

3.JPM: 149,390.320 OZ

 

 
 
 
 

Total dealer(registered) silver: 112.867 million oz

total registered and eligible silver:  353.784 million oz

a net .336 million oz LEAVES the comex silver vaults.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx19

 
 
 
 

May fell in contracts, losing 62 contracts to stand at  120 contracts.  We had 50 notices filed on MONDAY so we lost  12  contracts or AN ADDITIONAL 60,000 oz of silver will not stand delivery in this very active delivery month of May They will try their luck on the other  side, as there is no appreciable silver over here.

 

 

June gained 30 contracts UP to 2178.

July GAINED 280 contracts UP to 142,837 contracts

 
No of notices filed today:  61 CONTRACTS for 305,000 oz
 

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in MAY. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at  7245 x 5,000 oz = 3,622,500 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY (120) and the number of notices served upon today 61 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the MAY standings for silver for the MAY/2021 contract month: 7245 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of MAY (120)  – number of notices served upon today (61) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the Jan contract month .equals 36,520,000 oz. ..VERY STRONG FOR AN ACTIVE MAY MONTH. 

 

We lost 60,000 oz of silver standing for delivery.  No queue jumping this month as the bankers know that there is no silver over here!

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME 68,982 CONTRACTS // volume fair// 

 

FOR YESTERDAY 54,785  ,CONFIRMED VOLUME/ poor//

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV  FALLS TO -0.05% (MAY 25/2021)

No of unit of PSLV: 402,810,481

No of oz of physical silver held; MAY 24/2021  144,515.694 OZ

No. of oz of physical silver held:  Sept 20/20: 85,907.361

No of oz pf physical silver held: Dec 21/2019:  65,073.570 oz

During the past 8 months Sprott has added: 58,608.30 oz 

So far this year: 53.8 million oz

2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO –0.52% nav   (MAY 25/2021 )

 

3. SPROTT CEF .A   FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

 

NAV $20.11 TRADING $19.73//NEGATIVE 1.91

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/(this vehicle is a fraud as there is no gold behind them!)

MAY 25/WITH GOLD UP $13.25 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A DEPOSIT OF 2.30 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY REST AT 1046.12 TONNES.

MAY 24/WITH GOLD UP $8.25 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY A THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1042.92 TONNES

MAY 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.20 TODAY: TWO HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 5.82 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD AT 3 PM AND ANOTHER 5.83 TONNES ADDED AT 5.20 PM/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1042.92. TONNES

MAY 20/WITH GOLD UP 20 CENTS TODAY/A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.66 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1031.27 TONNES

MAY 19/WITH GOLD UP $13.35 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD IVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1035.93 TONNES

MAY 18/WITH GOLD UP $.75 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A MASSIVE 7.57 TONNES OF GOLD ADDED TO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1035.93 TONNES

MAY 17  WITH GOLD UP $29.95 TODAY/// .. NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD…INVENTORY RESTS AT 1028.36 TONNES

MAY 14  WITH GOLD UP $13.05… A BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD.//A DEPOSIT OF 3.21 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1028.36 TONNES

MAY 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.20 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1025.15 TONNES

MAY 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.60 TODAY;  NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1025.15 TONNES

MAY 10/WITH GOLD UP $7.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/ A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.82 TONNES FROM THE GLD./INVENTORY RESTS AT 1025.15 TONNES.

MAY 7/WITH GOLD UP 20,70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1019.33 TONNES

MAY 6/WITH GOLD UP $15.10 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.13 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1019.33 TONNES 

MAY 5/WITH GOLD UP $7.45 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1018.20

MAY 4/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.80 TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.16 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1018.20 TONNES.

MAY 3/WITH GOLD UP $23.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REST AT 1017.04 TONNES./

APRIL 30/WITH GOLD UP $0.20 TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.67 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1017.04 TONNES.

APRIL 29//WITH GOLD DOWN $5.70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1021.70 TONNES.

APRIL 28/WITHGOLD DOWN $4.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1021.70 TONNES.

APRIL 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.60 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1021.70 TONNES.

APRIL 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.80 TODAY;NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1021.70 TONNES

APRIL 23/WITH GOLD UP $3.40 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1021.70 TONNES

APRIL 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.30 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1021.70 TONNES

APRIL 21/WITH GOLD UP $14.41 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESSTS AT 1021.70 TONNES

APRIL 20/WITH GOLD UP $8.25 TODAY:A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.04 PAPER TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1021.70 TONNES

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Inventory rests tonight at:

 

MAY 25 / GLD INVENTORY 1046.12 tonnes

LAST;  1064 TRADING DAYS:   +111.25 TONNES HAVE BEEN ADDED THE GLD

LAST 994 TRADING DAYS// +  295.77 TONNES  HAVE NOW  BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY

end

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them!)

MAY 25/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.855 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 576.673 MILLION OZ/

MAY 24/WITH SILVER UP 25 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.855 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 574.818 MILLION OZ//

MAY 21.WITH SILVER DOWN 51 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.299 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 572.963 MILLION OZ/

MAY 20/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 571.664 MILLION OZ//

MAY 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 32 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 571.664 MILLION OZ/

MAY 18/WITH SILVER UP 09 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 7.884 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 571.664 MILLION OZ..

MAY 17 WITH SILVER UP 88 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//..INVENTORY RESTS AT 565.820 MILLION OZ

MAY 14 WITH SILVER UP 28 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE GAIN OF 1.949 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV….INVENTORY RESTS AT 565.820 MILLION OZ

MAY 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 39 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.67 MILLION OZ /INVENTORY RESTS AT 563.871 MILLION OZ//

MAY  11/WITH SILVER UP 17 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.206 MILLION OZ DESPITE THE PRICE RISE//INVENTORY RESTS AT 565.541 MILLION OZ//

MAY 10.WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.81 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 566.747 MILLION OZ//

MAY 7/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: NO  CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 566.577 MILLION OZ

MAY 6/WITH SILVER UP 90 CENTS TODAY: TWO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//:1. A WITHDRAWAL OF  FROM THE SLV RECORDED AT 2 PM AND THEN 2. A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.31 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV RECORDED AT 5;20 PM.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 568.577 MILLION OZ//

MAY 5/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 567.481 MILLION OZ//

MAY 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 40 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 567.481 MILLION OZ//

MAY 3/WITH SILVER UP 99 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 567.481 MILLION OZ

APRIL 30//WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS TODAY; No CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 567.481 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 567.481 MILLION OZ..

APRIL 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 31 CENTS TODAY:: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.206 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 567.481 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 27./WITH SILVER UP 20 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 568.687 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 26/  WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.260 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 568.687

APRIL 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A DEPOSIT OF 278,000 OZ INTO THE SLV.///INVENTORY RESTS AT 569.847 MLLION OZ/

APRIL 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWLA OF 3.619 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY REST AT 569.569 MILLION OZ..

APRIL 21/WITH SILVER UP 72 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 573.188 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 20/WITH SILVER UP 1 CENT TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIST OF 1.114 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 573.188 MILLION OZ.

XXXXXXXXXXXXXX

SLV INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT

MAY 25/2021
576.673 MILLION OZ

 
 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i)Peter Schiff

Peter Schiff And Ben Shapiro: The Government Is Wrecking The Economy

 
TUESDAY, MAY 25, 2021 – 01:00 PM

Via SchiffGold.com,

In many ways, it appears the economy is beginning to recover from the shocks of the coronavirus pandemic. GDP growth is way up. The stock market is soaring.  A lot of people are optimistic. But during an appearance on the Ben Shapiro Show, Peter Schiff said this isn’t a real recovery, and he explains how all of the government “help” is actually wrecking the economy, distorting the job market and destroying the dollar.

The economy is actually sicker now than it was before COVID. And what’s really been hurting it was not the disease but the government’s cure.

Peter said government shutdowns were at the root of the problem. When the economies closed, people stopped producing goods and services. When people aren’t productive, they need to reduce their consumption. You can’t consume stuff that’s not produced. But the government didn’t want people to stop spending even though it ordered them to stop working.

Enter the Federal Reserve.

The Fed simply printed money out of thin air. The government then handed that money out in the form of stimulus checks, enhanced unemployment and other COVID relief programs.

So, you have an economy where we’re producing less, but everybody wants to spend more. That’s not economic growth. That’s massive inflation. And what we’re seeing now is the byproduct of everybody spending all this money that we just printed, and that’s what’s goosing the GDP. But this is not a real economy.”

Peter noted the ballooning trade deficit.

What we’ve done is we’ve substituted real economic growth, real goods production, for money printing. And we’re about to pay the price in terms of an enormous increase in the cost of goods and services.”

Peter said we’re ultimately looking at an inflationary depression.

All of this government spending is actually hindering the recovery, because when the government spends money, it deprives the free market of resources. Government spending is effectively taxation – even if the government doesn’t collect direct taxes.

Once the government decides to spend money, the question is: how do we pay for it?”

If the politicians don’t have the guts to actually raise taxes to cover the spending, then they borrow it and ask the Fed to print money.

But that doesn’t mean we get the government for free. It just means the government is robbing us of the purchasing power of our money. And that’s what’s happening. The government is creating money, putting it into the economy, giving it to people to spend — these people are bidding up prices. And that’s what’s driving the GDP. It’s higher prices and more spending as we are producing less.”

On top of rising prices, we’re seeing lots of shortages in the economy. The Fed wants us to believe this is “transitory.” Peter said this is exactly the attitude the central bankers had about the subprime mortgage market in 2005 and 2006.

They told us, ‘Ignore what’s happening in the subprime mortgage market. It’s contained. It’s not going to be a problem for the mortgage market. It’s not a problem for housing. It’s not a problem for the economy. Just ignore it. It’s no big deal.’ Well, the Federal Reserve was completely wrong about the subprime market being contained. They’re now just as wrong, if not more so, about inflation being transitory. We’re at the beginning of a huge escalation in the cost of living. And they are throwing gasoline on the fire right now by continuing to spend more money paid for by the printing press.”

Peter also mentioned the out-of-whack job market. The government is creating perverse incentives for people to stay at home and collect big unemployment checks. Meanwhile, businesses can’t find people willing to work.

It is more lucrative not to work than to go and get a job. And of course, it’s far more enjoyable to have a vacation and get paid more than you would get if you return to work. So, the government is paying people not to produce, and then giving them money to buy the stuff that they didn’t produce — this is going to be an inflationary apocalypse.”

Biden’s tax plan will put a further drag on the economy. A lot of people aren’t concerned because the taxes will target the rich. But it’s the money the rich invest in businesses that drive the economy. People making under $400,000 might not have to worry about a higher tax bill. But they may well end up unemployed when the rich guy can no longer invest in his business.

Peter said the inflationary chickens will really come home to roost when the rest of the world loses confidence in the purchasing power of the dollar.

I think the next real recession is going to be triggered by inflation. As the costs go up so much, businesses start firing people because they need to stay in business. And consumers, even though they’re spending a lot of money, they’re spending it on food. They’re spending it on energy. So, they don’t have money left over to buy other stuff.”

So, what does the Fed do? The normal prescription for a recession is to print more money. But if you have an inflation problem, can you pour gasoline on that fire in order to put it out?

The Fed is in a box that they can’t get out of.”

Peter goes on to explain why the money printing and stimulus didn’t lead to this kind of upward pressure on prices after 2008.

end

OR

EGON VON GREYERZ//MATHEW PEIPENBURG

Pick Your Fed Poison: Tanking Markets Or Fatal Inflation?

 
TUESDAY, MAY 25, 2021 – 06:30 AM

Authored by Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,

Below we look at the dark corner in which the Fed has placed themselves and investors: A one-way path toward tanking markets or crippling inflation.

Alas: Pick your poison.

For us, the antidote is as good as gold.

More Inflation Signs

Stocks continue to gyrate nervously as the Fed continues to behave like a cornered animal trying to downplay inflation risks while paradoxically supporting a mega “everything bubble” with pro-inflationary tools.

April’s “official” CPI inflation number climbed by 4.2%, the fastest climb since 2008 and 2X the Fed’s mandate.

The Fed is claiming that’s because  COVID’s 2020 deflationary trends made such relative inflationary increases “expected,” “temporary,” and soon to be “contained.”

We’ve heard those words before…

Meanwhile, US producer prices surged by 6.2% for the same month, the highest move since 2010, as core inflation, which excludes energy and food, saw its highest move since 1981.

As for energy and food, we’ve already made it painfully clear that prices on everything from ethanol to canola and corn, or from milk, chicken wings and lean pork to beef and coffee are skyrocketing by high double digits.

Thus, in case you think inflation is still up for debate, the facts once again tell us it’s already here.

And as for inflation in the risk asset markets, that’s now as obvious as any bubble narrative.

The Bubble Narrative: Rates Matter

As for asset bubbles, they are the result of simple cause and effect.

If you want to know why stocks are inflated to levels that would make any bull or bear’s nose bleed, the following rate chart tells you why.

History and math confirm that debt drives all bubbles, and when debt is cheap—bubbles expand fatally. Period.

The following interest rate picture, which tracks the cost of debt, says a thousand words as to the power, as well as danger, of cheap debt fueled by the Fed’s artificial rate suppression.

In short: Rates matter.

As the 1980’s rate spike above confirms, interest rates in the U.S. were once as high as 19% when debt levels were low.

But now try to imagine current sovereign, real estate or corporate debt-issuers having to re-pay debt at such rates.

Would the Fed even toe-dip in that direction intentionally to fight the inflation discussed above?

They can’t, the couldn’t and they won’t.

Rising rates would mean instant party-over for the bond market, and no less so for the stock market. Thus, if you’re at all worried about an intentional “Volker moment” or intentional rate hikes: Don’t be.

The Fed simply can’t allow rates to rise in any meaningful way.

Frankly, even at 5%, rates would send global markets and economies to the insolvency basement. Period.

What this chart also reveals is that for every recession (gray vertical lines above), the Fed has been able to reduce rates to re-“stimulate” markets, which is their only real motive, despite libraries of Fed-speak to the contrary about their alleged role in supporting the real “economy.”

As I’ve said before, the Fed’s mistress is the market, not the economy.

The Fed’s deliberate pattern of market support, and hence distortion, is now beyond debate and boils down to this:

1) “Stimulate” markets with low rates to bubble point;

2) when things feel good, try to raise rates gently, and

3) when those market bubbles inevitably pop, recover/create them again with more rate cuts.

In short, rate cuts save dying markets.

Running Out of Bullets

But here’s the rub: What happens when there are no rates left to cut?

Well, that’s where the Fed (and other central banks) are today—out of bullets.

The graph above, moving from left to right, makes this clear rather than hypothetical or theoretical—there are no rates left to cut, and thus what “worked” in the past simply won’t work tomorrow.

In the early 1980’s, for example, the Fed’s rates dropped from 19% to 8%; in 1989, they cut rates from 10% to 3%; and during the dot.com bubble of the early 2000’s, they dropped rates from 6% to 1%.

See the pattern? With each “accommodative” rate cut, more bubbles followed, which led to more bubbles popping, which meant more rates cuts to “accommodate” markets.

In 2008, of course, the Fed responded to the Great Financial Crisis with, you guessed it–another 5% rate cut—all of which helped “recover” markets (from real estate to tech stocks) on the back of cheap debt.

Unfortunately, however, as we look to the far right of the above chart, we again see that there are no rates left to cut.

Powell, of course, knows this too.

He may be a double-speaker, but he isn’t stupid. That’s why he tried so hard in 2018 to raise rates and “taper” so that he’d have something to “cut” when the markets nosedived again.

Of course, trying to raise rates in a national and global backdrop of historically unprecedented sovereign and corporate debt didn’t pan out so well for Powell and his beloved markets—as we saw in the subsequent market puking of late 2018 or the repo crisis of 2019.

Net conclusion?

Simple: The Fed can’t go “hawkish” and raise rates without sending markets –and economies–to their knees; by extension, they now have nothing left to “cut” when the current everything bubble implodes.

And that, as we’ve said so many times, is a real problem.

Solution Worse than the Problem

As for a solution, what’s so tragic is that the only option before the Fed is an even bigger problem—current and inevitably more inflation.

That is, if the Fed wants to keep markets (and their job security) breathing, they no longer have the foregoing template of “rate-hike-followed-by-rate-cutting” at their disposal, which means they now have no choice but to dovishly keep rates near the zero-bound indefinitely.

But the only way to keep rates “controlled” and nailed to the floor of time is to purchase otherwise unwanted bonds to keep their prices elevated and hence yields and rates repressed.

Such bond “accommodation,” of course, costs money, and as we already know, the only “money” the Fed has to spend is the kind they create out of thin air– the very kind of money (and policy) which leads to the kind of inflation discussed above—namely, the brutal kind.

As for that fake money, the evidence of the Fed’s desperate (and only) direction is now obvious, as the following M2 money supply makes equally clear.

As we’ve discussed elsewhere, the Fed is so embarrassed by this “printing solution” that they’ve stopped weekly reporting of M2 data, and frankly, since March, have even stopped monthly reporting of the same.

That, of course, is both telling as well as disgraceful… The Fed literally has something to hide, and that never bodes well, does it?

Central Banks—Caught Between Their Own Inflationary Rock and or Market-Killing Hard Place

Thus, the Fed can continue to use printed currencies to pay for yield curve control (YCC) in order to repress rates and hence keep markets from totally imploding.

That requires trillions, not billions, to maintain.

The correlation to central bank balance sheet (i.e., money supply) expansion and rising markets is now beyond dispute.

But in order to continue this open charade of printing money to “accommodate” risk asset bubbles from bonds to beach front homes, the inflationary effects (above) of such fake money (and desperate) monetary policy are now getting impossible to ignore, despite openly laughable excuses, CPI data and calming projections from snake-oil merchants like Powell.

Whenever the markets get wobbly, the Fed prints money (think March 2020) and whenever the Fed thinks markets are “strong” (think June 2020) and it’s safe to taper (i.e., print less), the markets sink and thus the Fed has to crank out the money printers again (think July 2020).

In short—do you see the correlation and pattern? Do you see how the Fed’s market sausage is made? More importantly, do you now see the Fed’s self-made conundrum?

That is, they have to choose between 1) allowing markets to die (by hawkishly tapering the money supply needed to control rates) or 2) allowing for Main-Street-crippling inflation to increase (by dovishly accommodating the markets with unlimited fiat money).

Given that the Fed bows to the markets not the people, which choice do you think they’ll make?

In other words, expect more money printing and more yield curve control—and hence more money creation, more inflation, and by extension more fiat currency debasement.

Once you accept the Fed’s true nature and true market priorities—then making behavioral (and hence policy) projections on the Fed is as easy projecting the actions of gambling addicts or used car salesmen.

What’s Ahead for Markets? Taper Tantrum or a Generous Uncle Fed?

As of this writing, markets are panicking up and down, from exchanges in the US and Europe to Australia and Japan.

Why? Because regardless of what Powell, the CPI scale or other financial puppets say, forward-looking markets are witnessing and expecting more inflation (from money printing to supply-chain shocks).

At the same time, those same markets are hanging on Powell’s every word, which is just further proof that today’s modern and horrifically un-natural markets are entirely Fed-driven as opposed to settings of age-old (and now extinct) capitalistic principals like, say, natural supply and demand or legitimate price discovery.

Folks let’s just say it: The Fed is the market.

As of now, there is a real fear that Powell will hint at tapering (i.e., less printing), which will send the spoiled Wall Street nephews of their rich uncle Fed into yet another “taper tantrum.”

Meanwhile, as markets wait nervously for another Fed carrot or stick (dove or hawk, rate repression or rate hike), they can’t help but ignore the S&P’s 43 PE ratio (the historic average is 17-20), which screams of over-valuation but could in fact lead to even higher stock prices (bubbles) so long as the Fed doesn’t taper its money printing and rate repression.

But even if Powell found his “hawkish” manhood, conscience or common sense and offered Wall Street a rate-hike stick rather than YCC carrot, any future tapering of rate and money supply “accommodation” would send markets tanking, just tanking.

So, what will it be: Carrot or stick? Dove or Hawk? Market implosion or hyper-inflation?

In the interim, stocks are facing a myriad of other slings and arrows.

Dividend yields on the S&P have fallen to 1.5%, which is less than the return on even artificially repressed 10-year Treasuries (at 1.66%).

Will investors leave stocks for the “safety” of bonds, creating an outflow-driven price decline in stocks?

At the same time, stimulus checks are drying up, as are projected unemployment benefit extensions.

If this support slows, consumer demand and hence corporate earnings will feel the pinch—and so will stock prices. This explains why the smart money is leaving the casino.

Traditional Thinking Is Dangerous

Regardless of how long it takes for either a tanking market (Hawkish Fed) or Main-Street crushing inflation (Dovish Fed) to become fully evident, the bobble-head media and consensus-think financial industrial complex will tell you to stay the course.

Why?

Because they only get paid by investors staying the course, even if that course means steaming straight into an iceberg of debt and increasingly worthless fiat money.

But as for staying the course in the backdrop of the largest debt expansion in history, as well as an equally unprecedented bubble environment in stocks, bonds, real estate and cryptos, it might be worth considering a little bit of math and history to shape your thinking and curb your enthusiasm.

Markets, currently sustained by debt bluff, hot air, and fake money, are poised for an “uh-oh” moment far more painful than anything seen in the Great Depression.

Yet in case you are thinking of riding such a course out (as most risk-parity advisors suggest), take a moment to think about how long and painful that ride can and will be.

Consider the great crash of 1929 and the years that followed:

As the facts confirm, the S&P crashed from its near-500 peaks in 1929. It did not recover those prior highs until 1956, some 27 years later.

Gazing across the Pacific toward another historical moment of familiar “uh-oh,” we have the oh-so-embarrassing example of the Nikkei’s infamous 1989 crash.

Well, some 30 years later, that market has yet to recover its prior highs.

By the way, even if you can and are willing to risk waiting that long to “recover” prior price highs, keep in mind that the inflation to hit you during that period will eat away at more than 50% of your purchasing power.

Thus, if you believe markets are priced for perfection today and for the coming decades, stay the course, ride the wave, pay your broker and ignore the data-rocks below the surface.

To each his/her own.

But even the market itself is globally showing signs of “sell,” as the inflationary consequences of outright fraudulent central bank policies are becoming impossible to ignore.

If, as expected, the Fed “allows” inflation, or worse, if inflation continues to run way past the Fed’s hubris and comical control, no amount of yield curve repression can stop interest rates from rising with inflation, and if interest rates increase by even 3%, the debt party we’ve been enjoying in the markets since 2009 turns into a nightmarish hangover.

Again, see the conundrum?

Carrot or stick, the only future our central banks can hand us is one of rubble, not vegetables or wood.

The last remaining unknown is how long double-speakers like Powell and his ilk can continue this carrot and stick chess match (or market vs. inflation tug-of-war) as our financial, economic and currency “Rome” is burning.

As we’ve said, it’s a fool’s errand to time or forecast the damning yet undeniably powerful effects of unlimited money creation, but it remains a prudent investor’s obligation to prepare for their inevitable consequences.

More money supply to keep rates monetized simply means more currency debasement and rising inflation.

Gold, of course, has no where to go but up in the years ahead for the very simple reason that currencies now have nowhere to go but down.

OR

 
PAM AND RUSS MARTENS

Wall Street On Parade

-END-

Lawrie Williams

or

end

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

 A must read//along with the original Tom Luongo paper
(Chris Powell

Tom Luongo Basel 3 and the new role for gold

 


 

 


adminSection: Daily Dispatches
 

 


His hypothesis evokes 1974 warning to Kissinger, 2006 study by Peter Millar, and 2012 hypothesis by Paul Brodsky and Lee Quaintance.

* * *

3:32p ET Tuesday, May 25, 2021

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

An interesting hypothesis about the purpose of the “Basel 3” banking regulations being pressed by the Bank for International Settlements is offered by financial writer Tom Luongo in his new commentary, “Basel 3 and the New Role for Gold.” 

Luongo argues that the new regulations, which the London Bullion Market Association says would make “unallocated” gold too expensive for its member banks to continue to carry

 


 


https://gata.org/node/21135

— are meant to explode that primary mechanism of gold price suppression and thus to boost the gold price to reliquefy the European Central Bank, which holds a lot of gold as well as depreciating debt instruments.

Luongo writes: “Basel III is coming to destroy the paper gold markets and destroy the money-center banks in New York and London while setting the stage to bail out the euro-zone.”

Luongo’s analysis may remind GATA supporters of a few items often called to their attention:

— The transcript of the April 1974 meeting of U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger and his deputy, Thomas O. Enders, during which Enders warned Kissinger that the United States could not afford to let European nations return gold to the world financial system. Europe, Enders noted, had taken the lead in gold reserves over the United States, and whichever sovereign power has the most gold can revalue it periodically and thereby alter all financial valuations in the world, potentially to the disadvantage of the United States:

 


https://www.gata.org/node/13310

— The 2006 study by the Scottish economist Peter Millar arguing that periodic upward revaluation of gold by central banks is required to devalue currencies in a fiat money system to prevent interest expense on debt from going exponential and devouring the real economy:

 


https://www.gata.org/node/4843

— The 2012 hypothesis of the U.S. economists Paul Brodsky and Lee Quaintance that gold price suppression policy was being used to help major central banks redistribute the world’s gold supply among themselves so that central banks holding a large position in U.S. dollar assets would be suitably hedged with gold upon the dollar’s inevitable devaluation:

 


https://www.gata.org/node/11373

Luongo’s analysis is posted at his internet site here:

 


https://tomluongo.me/2021/05/23/basel-iii-and-the-new-role-for-gold/

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer

Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

 


CPowell@GATA.org
iii) Other physical stories:

What if… $800B in Lost Bitcoin Went to Physical Gold and Silver Instead?


 


Avatarsteve_brown  Views20Votes4Comment1

 


 


Currency Crypto Coin Bitcoin Cryptocurrency
 

 

 

 



 



 


 

 


 


Steve Brown

 


 

Whatever motive the  had for introducing his white paper after the financial collapse of 2008-2009 has long since been either subverted or achieved, depending on one’s point of view. Today bitcoin is a speculation hijacked by Wall Street, and the Fed won’t let it die. Bitcoin  to the Fed and its  for sterilizing capital; laundering dollars; and to exterminate inflationary dollars. Bitcoin serves another purpose too, as a gauge for Wall Street’s minions to determine the appetite for risk among what they perceive to be the Great Unwashed.

 


mysterious Satoshi Nakamotois just too usefulPrimary Dealers

The idea that bitcoin will ‘liberate money’ from the central bank monetary cartel is absurd, but we’ll refrain from repeating bitcoin’s history here. BTC is of course not a viable currency where BTC is far too unstable and transacts too slowly — and with too much arbitrage — for that. It’s a subject which has been well-documented here and elsewhere, while Lara Penny’s statement about bitcoin stands above all else: “No amount of SHA256 mathematics can delete human prejudice, and no blockchain ledger can ever logic away human cruelty.”

So $800Bn US was just wiped off the bitcoin map, and the question about where that capital went arises. Primary dealers can re-monetize their BTC hedge at the push of  and no doubt Goldman Sachs and other Wall Street shills for bitcoin have already done that. Wall Street’s monetary masters will simply pump their newly-issued Fed billions into bitcoin,  occurring right now, simply to keep bitcoin alive. After all, bitcoin is far  for laundering and extinguishing billions in inflationary USD capital. Even so, don’t expect to see $800Bn speculated back into bitcoin; or into share markets; or significantly into gold/silver.  “Open ledger” or not, it’s impossible to know precisely where the recently extinguished $800Bn USD in bitcoin has gone.

 


a Federal Reserve buttonprima facietoo useful to the Federal Reserve

Way back in 2010 after the financial collapse — for reasons unknown — ,  just subsequent to the .  While the timing is remarkable, financial events of that time were remarkable, too. Just then Max jumped the shark to push bitcoin and ditch physical silver. Despite  (now part of ) perhaps Max didn’t know about the  (). Perhaps Max didn’t know about the  ()  and , the cartel with a  solid lock on precious metals markets, as led by the largest central banks and their governments. Believe Max didn’t know that? Then I have PETC to sell you. Since his conversion to bitcoin, Max has said little about precious metals other than to knock them, Does that read like an RT revolutionary for precious metals?

 


Max Keiser pushed the meme“Buy silver … Sink JP Morgan!”mysterious appearance of Satoshihis experience at Alex.BrownRaymond JamesLondon Bullion Market AssociationLBMABank for International SettlementsBISCMEBlackRockmost recently in March; while his bitcoin net worth is estimated to be $250Mn USD.  

The reddit silver thread and  is somewhat reminiscent of Max, except the online push for the physical metal to change the world is apparently genuine… this time. So, what if $800Bn in lost bitcoin were to suddenly appear in physical gold and silver? Seemingly an absurd proposition, it’s literally impossible to suddenly and phenomenonally pump nearly one trillion USD into markets as small as physical gold and physical silver. Even the fake Wall Street paper game could not handle $800Bn, while traders know that game is terminally corrupt. Because the paper and physical gold/silver markets are so strictly controlled by the cartel above, and because there is not enough physical metal to satisfy the demand, $800Bn cannot rotate into those  metals.

 


Wall Street Silver movementphysical

But what if $800Bn hypothetically did rotate into physical gold and silver assets? Let’s say, like reddit’s Wall Street Silver crew, that bitcoin speculators suddenly appreciate the way to  is via the monetary empire’s achilles heel: physical gold and silver? That is the message Max Keiser abandoned when he abandoned physical silver.  Perhaps not unwise in a monetary sense for him — as explored above — but certainly in the moral sense where Max falsely postulates that bitcoin will be the savior of humanity.  So, what would happen if bitcoiners turned  from bitcoin to physical gold and physical silver as an investment? (Bitcoin is speculation.) That would achieve the end bitcoiners so sanctimoniously touted about bitcoin ever since its inception:  

 


sink the Money Trusten massephysical precious metals  And end it now, if adopted by the people.can end the fiat by-decree governmental monetary system as we know it.

$800Bn rotated out of bitcoin into physical precious metals via the so-called COMEX mandates that those traders must stand for delivery of 1000oz silver bars, . First and foremost, a massive rise in real gold and silver prices will force the US dollar to devalue. Forced devaluation of the USD, enforced by the global market even when that market is terminally gamed  by corrupt central banks, who own the BIS. The US dollar and Wall Street FAANG+ fantasy-related ‘air stocks’ , too. That will of course immediately attract the attention of the Exchange Stabilization Fund () and the largest monetary powers as detailed above.

 


en masseand riggedwould vaporize in an instantESF

As written gold holding is the foundation for the world’s most important financial transactions. They are the transactions that represent weapons sales; bank interventions; currency support; national medical supply guarantees; and lifelines for distressed governments like Ukraine . The highest human powers in existence demand physical gold.  Not bitcoin.

 


about here before, physical and Venezuela, and many many more

If $800Bn in US “by-decree” dollars were demanded in physical gold and silver instead, the Warfare State by definition must collapse. The predatory vultures of Wall Street who destroyed America’s manufacturing base and based it instead on their ejaculatory digital illusions would be banished to the cess pool of history, in an instant too. State Capture would fail. Media lies will stop. By definition of reality. Of course the Monetary emperors know that, too, and not just in the United States, Bank of England, and Switzerland. 

 


And perhaps that is why a certain former Alex.Brown employee quit that message, eleven years ago.

 


Follow Steve Brown on twitter: @newsypaperz
 

 


 

Help us grow. Support The Duran on Patreon!

end

GOLD/BASEL III

end

 

COMMODITY WATCH/

Cryptocurrencies

Fed’s Bullard says most cryptocurrencies ‘are worthless’

May 24, 2021 at 11:44 p.m. ET

MarketWatch

In Yahoo Finance interview, St. Louis Fed president urges caution, but says most investors go in with ‘eyes wide open’

St. Louis Fed President James Bullard warned Monday that investors should be careful when investing in cryptocurrencies, and dismissed most of them as “worthless.”

In an interview with Yahoo Finance, Bullard admitted that digital currencies that are able to “facilitate transactions that are difficult to make in conventional currencies” do have a place alongside fiat currencies.

However: “We have a couple of thousand of these around, most of them are worthless,” he said.

Bullard encouraged investors to be aware of the inherent risks in cryptocurrency investing — particularly concerning price volatility — and to “be careful.”

“I think for the most part, people like going into this with eyes wide open, they’re certainly not blind to the idea that this is a volatile area,” he told Yahoo Finance.

Still, Bullard said there are “lots of interesting things going on in this space,” and added that “of course the Fed is also looking at a Fed coin.”

“We’ve got a lot going on, watching this very carefully,” he said.

Separately Monday, Fed Gov. Lael Brainard said the central bank is keeping a close eye on China’s efforts to develop a digital currency, and said it’s critical that the Fed be “at the table” in any development of standards for central-bank digital currencies.

Last week, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said the central bank will ramp up its exploration of a digital dollar this summer, stressing it would not be a replacement for cash.

Crypto prices have been on a wild ride this year, but have fallen sharply over the past month. After tumbling over the weekend, the prices of bitcoin BTCUSD, -2.59% and dogecoin DOGEUSD, -3.52% rallied early Monday, though pulled back slightly by Monday night. While cryptocurrencies trade 24 hours a day, each trading session ends at 5 p.m. Eastern.

-END-

end

Your early TUESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED UP at 6.4054 /

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.3986   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 84.06 PTS OR 2.40% 

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 498.60 PTS OR 2.30%  

2. Nikkei closed UP 189.37 PTS OR 0.67%

3. Europe stocks  ALL GREEN EXCEPT LONDON

 

USA dollar index  DOWN TO 89.64/Euro RISES TO 1.2256

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. +.075/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 108.88/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

3c Nikkei now JUST ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 65.63 and Brent: 68.22

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE CLOSED DOWN UP/OFF- SHORE: UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO -.153%/Italian 10 Yr bond yield DOWN to 0.98% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.51%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.13: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 0.91

3k Gold at $1883.95 silver at: 27.70   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble  UP 3/100 in roubles/dollar) 73.42

3m oil into the 65 dollar handle for WTI and 68 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 108.88 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .8952 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0972 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to 0.153%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 1.592% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.289%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  DOWN  TO 8.41.. DEADLY

Futures, Tech Stocks Jump After Fed Officials Talk Down Inflation Risks

 
TUESDAY, MAY 25, 2021 – 07:44 AM

US equity futures and tech stocks gained for a second day, rising alongside European and Asian stocks after Fed officials on Monday played down the risk of “non-transitory” inflation easing bond yields for the fourth straight day, as investors waited for consumer-confidence data.  At 7:00 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were up 75 points, or 0.2%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 11 points, or 0.26%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 63.75 points, or 0.47%.

“Monday’s lethargy seems to have been shaken off after a chorus of Fed voices delivered dovish statements, downplaying arguments for early tightening,” said Nema Ramkhelawan-Bhana, an analyst at Rand Merchant Bank in Johannesburg, “Let’s not forget that it only takes one inflation print to unsettle investors or a strong economic figure to guide nominal yields higher. And so the lesson is to make hay while the sun shines.”

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq ended about 1% higher on Monday after Federal Reserve officials maintained that the U.S. central bank’s ultra-easy monetary policy will remain in place, pushing the longer-dated U.S. Treasury yields lower. Lael Brainard, Raphael Bostic and James Bullard said they wouldn’t be surprised to see bottlenecks and supply shortages push prices up in coming months as the pandemic recedes, but that much of those gains should be temporary. While market-based measures of inflation expectations have dipped, investors remain cautious about the risk of a pullback in stimulus. They are also monitoring Covid-19 spikes in regions such as Asia.

The Fed comments aided sentiment, as officials reiterated they expect transitory rather than lasting price pressures from the U.S. economic rebound. Treasury yields ticked lower. Emerging-market stocks climbed as China’s CSI 300 gauge surged more than 3% following Beijing’s efforts to talk down raw material costs.

Some notable premarket movers include:

  • Adamis Pharmaceuticals slumps 17% in premarket after saying in a filing that the company and its subsidiary, US Compounding Inc., received a subpoena issued in connection with a criminal investigation.
  • Ault Global Holdings climbs 19% after posting a 1Q profit from a loss last year.
  • Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks including Marathon Digital and Riot Blockchain ease with Bitcoin slightly lower after Monday’s rally, triggered by Elon Musk’s tweet indicating effort to bolster the token’s green credentials.
  • Lordstown falls 16% following the electric carmaker’s quarterly results, which Morgan Stanley (underweight) says featured a larger-than-expected loss, higher cash consumption, a reduced forecast and a need for outside capital.
  • Virgin Galactic Holdings shares fall 4%, trimming Monday’s rally and indicating the end of a seven-day winning streak. Morgan Stanley lowered its price target for the stock while keeping an equal-weight rating.
  • Apple, Amazon, Microsoft and Alphabet added between 0.4% and 1% in premarket trading as the yield on 10-year bond slipped to a fresh two-week low on Tuesday.

Amazon is poised to announce an acquisition of the Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer movie studio as soon as Tuesday and is in talks to pay almost $9 billion for the business, according to a person familiar with the matter.

In Europe, the Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose 0.4% to a record. Vonovia SE fell as much as 6.8% after it agreed to buy rival Deutsche Wohnen SE for about 19 billion euros ($23 billion) in the biggest-ever takeover in European real estate. Deutsche Wohnen jumped 15% and buoyed the sector as a whole.  Here are other big European movers today:

  • Royal Mail shares jumped by as much as 7.7% to a three year high, with the company set for a return to the FTSE 100 Index.
  • Abivax shares gained as much as 49% to the highest since early March following positive medical trial results. Bryan Garnier raised its target price by 22% following the data.
  • Amigo Holdings shares plunged as much as 61% in London after saying its redress plan failed to secure court approval. Company had said in March that failure of the scheme could result in the insolvency of the company.
  • Greencore Group Plc shares dropped as much as 15%, the most since May 2020. “Challenging” 1H results showed revenues are rebuilding, though a profit recovery “will take time,” according to Goodbody.
  • Trainline shares fell as much as 7.4% to the lowest since Nov. 4 after Stifel downgrades to hold and cuts its price target to a Street low, saying it can “no longer maintain a buy with any conviction.”
  • Nel ASA shares dropped by as much as 8.2% following Iberdrola’s announcement of a hydrogen alliance with Cummins.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks also rose, heading for a fourth day of gains, led by technology shares. Communication services, which include China’s Tencent and Japan’s Nintendo, was the best-performing sector in Asia on Tuesday, followed by information technology. Asia’s gain, the longest rally in five weeks, mirrored Wall Street’s performance on Monday, when comments by Fed officials aided sentiment for growth stocks. The Fed’s Lael Brainard, Raphael Bostic and James Bullard said price gains resulted from bottlenecks and supply shortages should prove temporary. “Central banks in the region — like their peers in the developed markets — are likely to look beyond the spike in inflation and stay accommodative this year,” Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management, wrote in a note. The market’s rally on Tuesday was broad-based with all sectors in the MSCI Asia Pacific gauge trading in the green. China led gains, while New Zealand and Malaysia shares declined.

In rates, the Treasury 10-year yields fell one basis point to a 2-week low of 1.59% keeping pace with bunds and gilts, and holding curve-flattening gains despite weekly highs for S&P 500, paced during European morning by bunds; The Asia session was muted with low volumes and futures activity dominated by calendar rolls. U.S. three-auction cycle begins with $60b 2-year note sale at 1pm ET.  WI 2- year yield around 0.157% is 1.8bp richer than April’s. which tailed by 0.4bp. Cycle includes $61b 5-year sale Wednesday, $62b 7-year Thursday.  In Europe, Italian bonds outperform, leading peripheral debt after the BTP 10-year yield fell back below 1%.

In FX, the dollar again fell against most of its Group-of-10 peers, while the euro came off a more than four-month-high of $1.2262, even as the German Ifo institute’s gauge of business expectations for the next six months rose to 102.9, exceeding all but one estimate in a Bloomberg survey. The risk-sensitive Swedish krona led G-10 gains and rose to a three-month high against the greenback. Australia’s dollar climbed, following gains in local stocks and iron ore, and after a rally in China’s yuan; the New Zealand dollar climbed as much as 0.4% ahead of the RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement tomorrow.

The Chinese offshore yuan climbed to its highest level in three years amid risk-on sentiment that lifted most emerging Asian currencies higher, and which was met by dollar buying from Chinese state-owned banks, according to traders. Investors’ short-term USD/CNH option bias turned bearish for the first time since 2019. The USD/CNY fell as much as 0.3% to 6.4016, the weakest since June 2018, while the offshore yuan breached the key 6.4 per dollar level: the USD/CNH declined as much as 0.3% to 6.3922, also the lowest since June 2018.

In commodities, oil prices slipped on Tuesday, but were near one-week highs after jumping more than 3% the previous session as investors tempered expectations of an early return of oil exporter Iran to international crude markets. Brent crude futures were down 30 cents, or 0.4%, at $68.16 a barrel by 1004 GMT, having jumped 3% on Monday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures were off 42 cents, or 0.6%, at $65.63 a barrel, after gaining 3.9% the previous session.

Elsewhere, Bitcoin pared a rally sparked by Elon Musk’s effort to bolster the token’s green credentials, extending a bout of marked volatility in the wake of last week’s crypto rout. The largest cryptocurrency remains about $25,000 off its mid-April record.

ooking at the day ahead now, we have April’s new home sales, the Conference Board’s May consumer confidence reading which likely slipped in May from a 14-month high hit in the prior month, and the Richmond Fed manufacturing index for May. Separately, central bank speakers include the Fed’s Evans, Barkin and Quarles, the ECB’s Lane and Villeroy, and the BoE’s Tenreyro. With the S&P 500 back to just within 1% of its May 7 all-time, all eyes will be on the U.S. personal consumption report on Thursday, the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge following a bout of market volatility recently triggered by fears of a longer period of higher prices.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.3% to 4,206.50
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.4% to 446.78
  • MXAP up 1.1% to 206.49
  • MXAPJ up 1.4% to 691.86
  • Nikkei up 0.7% to 28,553.98
  • Topix up 0.3% to 1,919.52
  • Hang Seng Index up 1.8% to 28,910.86
  • Shanghai Composite up 2.4% to 3,581.34
  • Sensex down 0.1% to 50,579.61
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 1.0% to 7,115.19
  • Kospi up 0.9% to 3,171.32
  • Brent Futures down 0.6% to $68.08/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.0% to $1,880.74
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.23% to 89.64
  • German 10Y yield fell -1.3 bps to -0.153%
  • Euro up 0.3% to $1.2251

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • Be it down to a series of speeches awaited from policy makers, upcoming inflation data out of the U.S. or expected month-end flows, euro options suggest some traders are preparing for large price swings over the next week
  • “I don’t see any reason to make any change (to the pace of PEPP) at the moment,” ECB Governing Council member Yannis Stournaras tells Reuters
  • Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan appointed a new deputy governor at the country’s central bank, tapping an economist and long-serving member of the institution in his latest leadership rejig
  • For the first time in years, the global supply of debt with a negative yield is in meaningful decline. The trend is strongest in Europe, where subzero bonds have been an everyday reality for investors

Quick look at global markets courtesy of newsquawk

Asia-Pac stocks traded higher after taking the impetus from the encouraging performance in the US where all major indices gained, led by outperformance in tech amid a decline in yields and rebound in crypto. ASX 200 (+0.9%) benefitted from the constructive mood with tech, real estate and miners spearheading the advances for the benchmark which briefly reclaimed the 7,100 level, although the index has since met resistance with gains also capped by mixed data releases. Nikkei 225 (+0.7%) was positive amid reports the Japan’s government plans to maintain support measures for firms impacted by the pandemic with 0% interest loans extended to the year-end and although the US announced a ‘do not travel’ advisory against Japan, officials suggested this is unlikely to have implications on the Olympics, while the KOSPI (+0.9%) was lifted after recent data showed South Korean Consumer Sentiment at its highest in almost 3 years. Hang Seng (+1.8%) and Shanghai Comp. (+2.4%) conformed to the upbeat mood across the region amid strength in tech and biopharmaceuticals, as well as a recovery in mainland commodity prices from the recent China crackdown-induced selling, with Xiaomi among the biggest gainers in Hong Kong after FTSE Russell announced it will reinstate Xiaomi and Luokong Technology to its global indices. Finally, 10yr JGBs were rangebound with upside capped by the gains across regional stock markets and mixed results in the enhanced liquidity auction for longer-dated bonds, while the Aussie 10yr yield was slightly softer in the aftermath of Australia’s 2040 treasury indexed bond offering.

Top Asian News

  • Ant Shelves Sales of Debt Backed by Online Loans After Crackdown
  • Indonesia Holds Rates, Focuses on Liquidity Amid Recovery Signs
  • China Begins Antitrust Probe Into KE Holdings, Reuters Says
  • Malaysia Covid Spike May Spark ‘Vertical Surge,’ Health DG Says

Major bourses across Europe see somewhat of a divergence as Germany and Switzerland play catchup after yesterday’s Whit Monday holidays, but broadly speaking the region ekes mild gains. Cash markets aside, European equity futures have been waning from best levels before finding a floor in what coincided with the release of an upbeat German Ifo survey – which noted that the upswing is picking up pace but warned that the rising costs for raw materials are increasingly becoming a problem, whilst more companies say they have price hikes on the table. US equity futures meanwhile hold onto modest gains following yesterday’s bull run, with the NQ narrowly outperforming peers as yields remain suppressed. Back to cash, the DAX (+0.8%) and SMI (+0.7%) outpace regional peers after the long weekend, with the former also seeing tailwinds from Deutsche Wohnen (+15%) after the Co. confirmed Vonovia’s (-4%) EUR 18bln takeover offer at around an 18% premium to Friday’s closing price. Thus, the Real Estate sector outperforms, closely followed by Tech which sees a continuation of the sectorial performance seen on Wall Street and in APAC. The other end of the spectrum sees Basic Resources as a laggard as base metal prices bear the brunt of further jawboning by China. In terms of some individual movers, BHP (-0.1%) gave up earlier gains despite resolving a union issue at its small Cerro Colorado copper mine, as the recent losses in the red metal fed through to the miner, and with eyes also on union developments BHP’s larger Escondida mine. Positive broker moves see L’Oreal (+0.2%) and Royal Mail (+7%) on firmer footings. Finally, FTSE-listed Aveva (+4.4%) gains on the back of strong earnings.

Top European News

 

In FX, it’s looking increasingly ominous for the Dollar and index, as recoveries become fewer and farther between as well as less pronounced. Indeed, the DXY has descended into yet another lower range after only managing a tame or lame rebound to 89.867 and is desperately trying to stay above 89.500 amidst almost all round Greenback weakness against G10 contemporaries and EM currencies, like the Yuan that has extended gains through 6.4000 irrespective of reports suggesting that the PBoC was defending that line overnight having set a 6.4283 midpoint fix for the Cny. The index has been down to 89.533 and the half round number is now the only real or tangible prop left before the y-t-d trough appears on the radar, at 89.206 from January 6.

  • EUR/CHF/GBP – All reaping the rewards of their rivalry with the Buck, but the Euro not actually getting much in the way of an additional boost from IFO’s latest survey that beat consensus on all counts having breached barriers at 1.2250 before the release and then losing some momentum. Meanwhile, the Franc scaled 0.8950 ahead of delayed weekly Swiss sight deposit balance updates that revealed a Chf 4+ bn rise at domestic banks and Sterling briefly popped over 1.4200, though remained under pressure vs the Euro around 0.8640 in advance of a speech from BoE’s after seeing no reaction to sub-par CBI distributive trades .
  • AUD/NZD/JPY/CAD – The Aussie and Kiwi are maintaining 0.7750+ and 0.7200+ status against their US peer respectively, albeit off best levels in wake of somewhat mixed data for the former via preliminary trade, weekly payrolls and wages, while the latter awaits NZ trade before attention switches to the RBNZ on Wednesday with option pricing implying a 45 pip break-even for the policy meeting event. Conversely, the Yen has stalled just above 108.60 again and the Loonie remains hesitant on approaches towards 1.2000 following retracement from circa 1.2013 last week.
  • SCANDI/EM – A bit more respite for the Nok as it consolidates off worst levels against the Eur and back over 10.2000, but further underperformance/divergence beneath parity vs the Sek that might be taking note of stronger Swedish PPI prints in context of follow-through to headline inflation. Elsewhere, the Try might be on the back foot due to a decline in Turkish manufacturing sentiment and/or latest changes at the CBRT after the replacement of a Deputy Governor.

In commodities, WTI and Brent front month futures are softer on the day as the complex gives up some of yesterday’s gains amid the tentative trade and as JCPOA negotiations continue (at 15:00BST), whilst some downbeat sentiment may also be seeing in via China’s concerns regarding soaring commodity prices feeding into inflation. WTI resides around USD 65.50/bbl (vs high USD 66.34/bbl) whilst its Brent counterpart trades on either side of USD 68/bbl (vs high USD 68.90/bbl) with the US and Iran both noting that gaps remain in nuclear deal negotiations, but Iran has been cautiously optimistic in what is hoped to be the final round of talks. Elsewhere, precious metals have been moving in tandem with yields and the Dollar with spot gold within reaching distance of USD 1,900/oz (USD 1,872-87 range) and spot silver extending gains above USD 27.50/oz (USD 27.47-80 range). One narrative to keep in mind – some participants have also cited the detreating sentiment surrounding bitcoin as a possible bullish factor for spot gold as investors turn to a physical (and less volatile) “store of value”. Meanwhile, attention has once again been on base metals with LME copper losing the USD 10,000/t handle amid reports that China’s Premier Li has discussed solutions to tackle the commodity price surge and reiterated that China is to stabilise commodity prices and fight against commodity hoarding. Copper also eyes developments regarding Chilean mine workers – BHP managed to strike a deal at its Cerro Colorado mine, although attention remains on union developments at its Escondida mine which has the world’s largest copper deposits. Dalian iron ore futures were subdued overnight following four straight sessions of losses after China intervened in the bull-run last week with commodity follow-through to inflation cited as a concern.

US Event Calendar

  • 8am: Fed’s Barkin Discusses the Economic Outlook
  • 9am: March S&P CS Composite-20 YoY, est. 12.50%, prior 11.94%; 20 City MoM SA, est. 1.30%, prior 1.17%
  • 9am: March FHFA House Price Index MoM, est. 1.2%, prior 0.9%
  • 9:40am: Fed’s Evans Discusses Economic Outlook at BoJ Event
  • 10am: May Conf. Board Consumer Confidenc, est. 119.0, prior 121.7; Expectations, prior 109.8; Present Situation, prior 139.6
  • 10am: April New Home Sales MoM, est. -7.0%, prior 20.7%; New Home Sales, est. 950,000, prior 1.02m
  • 10am: May Richmond Fed Index, est. 19, prior 17

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

The last time I talked about the weather it was about 6 weeks ago when it hadn’t rained since we scattered a big patch of new grass seed a month before. We were getting very worried it had all died. We needn’t have been too concerned though as 6 weeks later and it hasn’t stopped raining since. The silver lining is that the grass seed has turned into a mini-jungle. Nevertheless, remind me never to do a rain dance again. The good news is that the weather is about to change with hints of summer about to arrive. Hoorah!

There weren’t many rain clouds hovering over markets yesterday as global equities got the week off to a strong start, with the S&P 500 (+0.99%) rebounding following two consecutive weekly declines. The moves come as inflation jitters have continued to subside among investors for now, with expectations of future Fed hikes over 2021 and 2022 moving back slightly once again yesterday following their increase after the US CPI reading for April. Indeed, as it currently stands the S&P is less than 1% shy of its all-time closing high seen earlier in the month, and up by +3.30% since its recent low on May 12 on the day that the CPI report was released.

In terms of the specific moves yesterday, the advance was a pretty broad-based one as 21 of 24 sectors in the index moved higher on the day, though rate-sensitive tech stocks led the outperformance, with the NASDAQ (+1.41%) and the FANG+ (+2.26%) both seeing strong gains. The only industries that fell back yesterday were Utilities (-0.20%), Biotech (-0.19%) and Telecoms (-0.10%). European equities earlier saw a slightly more subdued advance than the US, with the FTSE 100 (+0.48%) and the CAC 40 (+0.35%) seeing modest gains, while the STOXX 600 (+0.14%) was relatively weaker thanks to the German and Swiss markets being closed for a holiday.

Overnight one of the main news stories has continued to be the fact that Belarus forced a flight to land in its airspace before arresting a journalist on the plane. This has led to swift condemnation from the EU, and European Commission President von der Leyen called the events, “an attack on democracy, this is an attack on freedom of expression and this is an attack on European sovereignty.” European leaders have proposed some Belarusian officials be added to an existing blacklist and are looking at broader measures to target businesses and entire sectors of the country’s economy. President von der Leyen also announced sanctions not just “on individuals that are involved in the hijacking but … also on businesses and entities that are financing this regime.” The White House called the forced landing and jailing of a journalist “a brazen affront to international peace and security by the regime”, with Press Secretary Psaki saying the Biden Administration demands, “an immediate international transparent and credible investigation of this incident.” President Biden agreed with the EU decision and said that he has asked advisers “to develop appropriate options to hold accountable those responsible, in close coordination with the European Union, other allies and partners, and international organizations.”

Meanwhile in Asia overnight, equity markets have followed the US lead higher, with the Nikkei (+0.65%), the Hang Seng (+1.26%), the Shanghai Comp (+1.60%) and the Kospi (+0.77%) all having advancing. Furthermore, S&P 500 futures (+0.22%) are pointing to another day of gains. As with the US, Asian equities appear to be supported by helpful comments from Fed officials, who continued to adopt a relaxed tone on inflation. Fed Governor Brainard said that longer-term inflation expectations “have been extremely well anchored, implying that if we saw some development pushing inflation up I wouldn’t expect that to get embedded in the ongoing inflation rate”. Meanwhile, Atlanta Fed President Bostic said “I am not seeing that it is going to be enduring”, so sticking to the view that transitory factors like base effects and bottlenecks associated with the reopening are driving the faster rise in prices, rather than anything more permanent.

The comments from Fed officials supported sovereign bonds, which rallied alongside equities yesterday. By the close, yields on 10yr US Treasuries were down -2.0bps to 1.601%, though 10yr inflation breakevens actually rose +1.3bps, even as US inflation fears have dulled in recent days, and remain -10.5bps away from their 8-year closing high only a week ago. Over in Europe there was a similar move lower for yields, with those on 10yr bunds (-1.0bps), OATs (-1.1bps) and gilts (-1.9bps) all declining. As an aside, yesterday also saw the spread of 10yr Greek debt over bunds fall to its lowest level in over a decade, at just 1.09%.

Another rebounding asset yesterday were cryptocurrencies after a very bad couple of weeks, with Bitcoin up +15.8% in its best daily performance since February 8, and its second-best performance over the last 12 months, putting it back at $39,024 at the end of the US day, though this morning it’s down to $38,413 again. Comments from Bridgewater’s Dalio that he would rather own Bitcoin than a bond seemed to help provide fresh momentum, while there was a further advance late in the session after Elon Musk tweeted that he’d spoken with North American Bitcoin minters, saying that they had “committed to publish current & planned renewable usage & to ask miners WW to do so. Potentially promising.” Elsewhere in the asset class, Ethereum (+26.7%), XRP (+26.5%) and Litecoin (+28.9%) all saw even larger rebounds yesterday, though we should keep this rebound in perspective as Bitcoin’s price remains well beneath its intraday peak of $64,870 back in mid-April. Commodities broadly had a decent performance after a couple of weeks of declines, with Brent crude (+3.04%) and WTI (+3.88%) oil prices seeing rebounds, along with the key industrial bellwether of copper (+1.01%). All of the positive commodity moves came against a falling USD (-0.19%), which was the currency’s 5th decline in its last 7 sessions and leaves it just under 0.5% away from its 3-year lows.

In terms of the latest on the pandemic, the situation continues to improve for now at the global level, with the rate of increase in new cases having come down by more than a quarter since its peak in late-April. The US announced its slowest weekly rise in new Covid-19 cases (0.5%) yesterday since the pandemic began, as the country has now administered at least one shot to 61% of the adult population. In terms of the return to normal, New York City Mayor de Blasio said that a remote learning option wouldn’t be available for public-school students when they return in September. However, there have been some restrictions reinstated as the US government issued a ‘do-not-travel’ advisory on Japan ahead of the Summer Olympics. The advisory comes as Japan remains under a state of emergency with just under two months until the Olympics are supposed to begin.

There was barely any data to speak of yesterday, though the Chicago Fed’s national activity index fell to 0.24 in April (vs. 1.20 expected), suggesting that economic growth moderated in April. And returning to the virus, the UK’s ONS estimated that the number of trips made by UK residents abroad in 2020 was down -74% compared to 2019.

To the day ahead now, and data releases include the German Ifo Institute’s business climate indicator for May, the UK’s public sector net borrowing for April, and from the US we have April’s new home sales, the Conference Board’s May consumer confidence reading, and the Richmond Fed manufacturing index for May. Separately, central bank speakers include the Fed’s Evans, Barkin and Quarles, the ECB’s Lane and Villeroy, and the BoE’s Tenreyro.

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)TUESDAY MORNING/ MONDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED  UP 84.06 PTS OR 2.40%   //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 498.60 PTS OR 2.30%      /The Nikkei closed UP 189.39 pts or 0.67%  //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 1.00%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP AT 6.4054 /Oil UP TO 65.63 dollars per barrel for WTI and 68.22 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN EXCEPT LONDON   //  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.4054. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.3986   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING  STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

NORTH KOREA//USA/

 

END

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

JAPAN

 

3 C CHINA

CHINA//LITHUANIA

Good for Lithuania: they are taking steps against the Chinese Communist party> They opened a trade off in Taiwan and then blocked Chinese investment in their country because of genocide in China’s northern most province Xinjiang

(Carr.EpochTimes)

Lithuania’s Heroic Stand Against China: The World Should Listen

 
TUESDAY, MAY 25, 2021 – 03:30 AM

Authored by Anders Corr via The Epoch Times,

Lithuania is a small Baltic country of population 2.8 million and land area 65,300 square kilometers. Compare that to China’s 1.4 billion population and 9.6 million square kilometers. Yet, Lithuania has taken a series of steps against the Chinese Communist Party in recent months that would at times have struck fear into the hearts of larger nations such as the United States, Japan, Germany, and France.

Apparently precipitated by a recognition of the genocide in China’s Xinjiang region, Lithuania blocked Chinese investment, started a trade office in Taiwan, and most recently on May 22, pulled out of a Beijing-led forum for economic cooperation in central and eastern Europe. Lithuania’s actions are indicative of a worsening relationship between the European Union, of which it is a member, and China. Agence France-Presse reports that Lithuania’s actions are angering Beijing.

People take part in a human chain protest in support of the Hong Kong Way, a recreation of a pro-democracy “Baltic Way” protest against Soviet rule three decades ago, in Vilnius, Lithuania on Aug. 23, 2019. (Petras Malukas/AFP via Getty Images)

On Saturday, Lithuania terminated its relationship with China’s 17+1 forum for cooperation with eastern and central European states. The forum is now 16+1, and includes 11 EU countries (Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Greece, Hungary, Latvia, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia) along with Albania, North Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina. The latter two are considered a single country.

In an apparent effort at divide-and-conquer, and to increase its influence, Beijing is providing the latter five countries with extensive free vaccines and masks. But a $1 billion loan to Montenegro for a road turned sour, with China’s monopolization of the money for its own construction company, allegations of kickbacks to “thief” politicians, repayments in arrears, the stalling of construction, and a threat of a Chinese takeover of key Montenegrin assets like its main port, which the country might have hocked as loan collateral. Any such takeover, according to EuroNews, could give China “sovereign” territory in Montenegro.

Given the increasingly overbearing circumstances of China’s global economic expansion and influence, Lithuania did the right thing. “There is no such thing as 17+1 anymore, as for practical purposes Lithuania is out,” Lithuania’s Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis said in an email to Politico.

The wealthier and more democratic EU is obviously the better choice for the country. “Vaccination rollout, tackling pandemics are just [a] few recent examples of the EU27 united in solidarity and purpose. Unity of [the] 27 is key to success in EU’s relations with external partners. Relations with China should be no exception,” the foreign minister told Politico.

Lithuania called the Beijing-led organization “divisive” of European Union unity. Lithuania urged other EU members to leave the forum given deterioration of ties with China over Uyghur forced labor and the sanctioning of EU officials.

According to Agence France-Presse, Landsbergis called upon EU members to seek “a much more effective 27+1 approach and communication with China.”

On May 20, Lithuania’s parliament recognized China’s genocide and crimes against humanity as such. It called for an investigation, by the United Nations, of the Uyghur concentration camps in the Xinjiang region of China, and asked for a review of relations with Beijing by the European Commission.

The same day, the European Parliament froze the EU-China investment deal, until China lifts sanctions against Members of the European Parliament and European scholars. The vote was a major blow to Beijing, which through its genocide and wolf-warrior diplomacy, is steadily alienating its biggest trade partners around the world. The two votes likely precipitated the foreign minister’s announcement of a break with Beijing’s 17+1 grouping. Its singular break, however, indicates continued confusion among EU member states over the need for political and economic distance from Beijing.

Lithuania’s History of Resistance Against Tyranny

Lithuania has extensive experience in trying to maintain its independence from foreign authoritarian rule, including multiple partitions and occupations of its territory in the 18th and 19th-centuries by Russia, Prussia, France, Germany, and Poland. This deep historical understanding of authoritarian imperialism likely in part drives Lithuania’s leadership in objecting to Beijing’s attempts to assert influence over the European Union.

Revolts against Russian rule over Lithuania in the 19th century led to Moscow’s attempts at Russification of the country, which lost its legal code, dating to the 16th century, in 1840. Russian cultural imperialism spurred Lithuanian nationalist and cultural resistance. Beneath the Russian yoke, Lithuanians continued to promote their culture and language through informal schools that utilized Lithuanian-language books smuggled in from Germany.

People form a human chain under the motto “The Baltic Way – It’s Us” from Gediminas Tower to the City Limits in Vilnius, Lithuania on Aug. 23, 2019. From Catalan separatists to Hong Kong pro-democracy activists, the human chain that helped the Baltic states win independence from the Soviet Union three decades ago still inspires freedom-seekers the world over. (Petras Malukas /AFP/Getty Images)

A 1905 Congress, which took advantage of liberalization during the Russian Revolution of 1905, demanded the establishment of an autonomous Lithuanian political entity. But in 1915, the German military occupied Lithuania with the goal of creating a satellite state. The state was proclaimed “independent” in February 1918, only to remain under German military control until the armistice in November 1918. In early 1919, the Soviet military occupied the country, to be pushed out by the Polish army in mid-1919. The Western Allies protected some territory for Lithuania, and two years later after some fighting with Poland, Lithuania joined the League of Nations as an independent sovereign state.

The Red Army, allied with Nazi Germany, re-occupied Lithuania in 1940 and absorbed the country into the Soviet Union. 35,000 Lithuanians were deported. Germany attacked the Soviets in 1941, and occupied Lithuania again. Approximately 250,000 Lithuanians died, most of whom were Jewish. In 1944, the Soviets reoccupied Lithuania, which fought back through guerrilla warfare into the early 1950s. Joseph Stalin deported approximately 220,000 Lithuanians from 1947 to 1949 and forced his cultural reforms on the country. Lithuania retained a fiercely nationalist underground movement, producing more underground publications than did any other republic of the Soviet Union.

Perestroika and glasnost (restructuring and openness) in the Soviet Union created the conditions for an independent Lithuanian legislature that declared independence in 1990. In 2004, after a decade of work, Lithuania achieved membership in the EU and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).

Lithuania and China Today

The current Lithuanian population is not particularly anti-China. A 2019 Pew survey found that only 33 percent of Lithuanians had an unfavorable view of China, while 45 percent held a favorable view. Compare that to 85 percent of Japanese, 70 percent of Swedes, and 67 percent of Canadians who hold an unfavorable view of the Asian superpower.

The view of China in Lithuania is affected by the economic outlook of the respondent, which makes sense as a major complaint about China is that it steals jobs and technology. “In Lithuania, 55% of those who grade their economy as good have a favorable view of China; just 33% of those who say the economy is in poor shape share that opinion, a 22-point gap,” according to Pew. The median unfavorable view of China across 34 countries polled by Pew in 2019 was 41 percent.

Lithuanians have suffered at the intersection of empire for hundreds of years. The last thing they should want is another aspirant, this time to global hegemony, from as far away as Beijing.

The Lithuanian government has taken such a strong stand against the Chinese Communist Party and its divide-and-conquer tactics should be a signal to the rest of the EU, and to the world. These strong people, who experienced hundreds of years of foreign domination, and who finally achieved freedom in 1990, are telling us something about China. We should listen.

end

CHINA/USA

We should never let the media get away with U turning on the Chinese lab leak theory

(Miller/Spectator.us)

Don’t Let The Media Get Away With U-Turning On The Lab Leak Theory

 
TUESDAY, MAY 25, 2021 – 08:35 AM

Authored by Stephen L. Miller via Spectator.us (emphasis ours),

The theory that COVID-19 originated in a Chinese laboratory has completed its year-long trudge — from fringe nutjob idea to mainstream and expert-approved opinion.

Right all along? Sen. Tom Cotton was denounced as a conspiracy theorist last year for suggesting that SARS-CoV-2 might have emerged from the Wuhan Institute of Virology (Getty)

Leading scientists and epidemiologists such as none other than Dr Anthony Fauci were so quick to dismiss the ‘lab talk’. It was first portrayed as a hare-brained wild and tacitly racist conspiracy theory driven by paranoid Republican senators and fever-dream right-wing media. Now it is seen as not only an acceptable theory worth more study, but one that has broken through into the mainstream. This has happened in a matter of days. Where does Sen. Tom Cotton go for his apology?

Interestingly enough, the lab leak theory started gaining more traction — not only in the international community, but in the scientific community in the United States — right around the same time that questions of United States government funding of EcoHealth Alliance, a research and collection group of bat coronaviruses in China, may have lead to gain-of-function research at the Wuhan Institute of Virology.

Anthony Fauci denied that this research was happening in Wuhan with US knowledge but went on to also acknowledge that US officials don’t really have any idea what’s happening in the lab, thanks to the secretive nature of China’s communist government — a regime that has so far successfully put off the pressing questions as to the origins of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Almost instantaneously, respectable media voices have switched from writing off the lab leak theory to believing that is somewhere closer to probable than possible. How does that happen?

A group of 18 scientists, including one who worked in the Wuhan lab, penned a letter to Science magazine stating the lab leak theory needed to be investigated further.

Then Donald McNeil Jr, the former New York Times science writer wrote an extensive explanation of gain-of-function research (the scientific manipulation of proteins in a virus to make it more susceptible for human transmission) and why that it’s possible that this research was being conducted at the Wuhan lab.

Shortly after that post, the dominos began to fall. Just this weekend, Anthony Fauci himself, who has long derided the lab leak theory, changed his tune as well, saying that he’s not confident that the virus did not escape a lab.

Fauci was one of the go-to sources for media eager to write off the theory altogether. News outlets such as NPR said in April 2020 that the theory had been ‘debunked’. The Washington Post called it a ‘conspiracy theory that was already debunked’.

The Wuhan lab director called it a ‘pure fabrication’ in Forbes. Well, she would, wouldn’t she? What was stranger was the western media’s willingness to take such an obviously compromised figure at her word.

Reuters took China’s lead, using China itself as a source for the debunking. Lots of the American media appeared reflexively to side with any news story that was at odds with President Trump or made him look bad. ‘Anthony Fauci just crushed Donald Trump’s theory on the origins of the coronavirus,’ wrote noted follower of science Chris Cillizza on the CNN website. Plus ça change.

What’s more interesting is that minds are now shifting on the lab leak theory, without all that much significant new evidence. Only after the media conversation changed did a blockbuster report emerge in the Wall Street Journal describing how three workers at the Wuhan lab, had sought hospital care after experiencing severe respiratory problems way back in November 2019. This was based on previously unreleased intelligence — the very stuff Republican leaders were dismissed as cranks for alluding to early last year.

While there is still only an amount of circumstantial evidence pointing to the lab theory, there is more and more smoke around the fire. Our corporate media is going to stuff this down the memory hole and make their previous statements and stances disappear. Experts, cable news hosts and opinion writers are going to move on as though they hadn’t spent the last year labeling anyone who attempted to even explore this theory as a lunatic. Dr Anthony Fauci was one of those people. He should not be allowed to get away with it.

end
CHINA VS GLOBE/WHO//CORONAVIRUS
Tucker Carlson blasts Fauci and the WHO for lying about the COVID 19 leak
(zerohedge)

Watch: Tucker Carlson Blasts Fauci, WHO, Media For Lying About COVID Lab Leak For A Year

 
TUESDAY, MAY 25, 2021 – 12:30 PM

Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,

Outspoken host Tucker Carlson outlined Monday how the possibility of a lab leak causing the coronavirus outbreak was dismissed and lied about for over a year by those directing the pandemic response, and is only now emerging as a serious prospect because of the persistence of those who refused to be silenced.

“Pretty much every sane person acknowledges at this point that the government of China likely caused the single worst man-made disaster in human history,” Carlson noted, citing the release of a US intelligence document acknowledging that workers at the Wuhan Institute of Virology were hospitalised in November 2019.

The host noted that Anthony Fauci has admitted that he had no idea about the revelations, even though they were first brought to light in January, and rumours about the workers getting sick have been known for over a year.

“Fauci’s own employers, the U.S. government, publicly released compelling evidence that the virus that he has devoted his life to fighting, did not come from food, but instead escaped from the very bio lab that Tony Fauci has sent American tax dollars to fund,” Carlson announced.

“Yet somehow Tony Fauci didn’t know this… Can we really believe that? No, of course, we can’t,” Carlson continued, adding “right around the time those Chinese researchers became the world’s first COVID patients, the government of Thailand contacted the CDC and Tony Fauci’s office to say its intelligence service had picked up ‘biological anomalies’ around the lab in Wuhan. In other words, there had been a leak.”

Carlson continued “several other allied foreign governments, including the governments of France and Australia, have gathered evidence showing the virus escaped from a Chinese lab. Yet Tony Fauci, who runs the whole thing, didn’t know any of this? Come on. Of course he did.”

“Fauci has known from the beginning the virus may very well have come from that lab. Many people have known that. Fauci just lied about it for more than a year,” Carlson urged.

Watch:

Carlson went on to explain how Fauci’s public statements regarding the outbreak and the Communist Chinese government are remarkable in this context.

“Tony Fauci was perfectly aware that China may have created this virus, and he knew for a fact that the government of China was lying, covering its tracks, and pushing the world health organization to do the same,” Carlson charged.

The host added that “the most galling part” of this is the fact that while Fauci and the health authorities lied, “those few journalists and scientists who told the truth about what happened in Wuhan were punished for telling the truth.”

“They were attacked by CNN, censored by Facebook, denounced by their colleagues. They were destroyed in some cases. Where’s their apology? Who’s paying into their reparations fund? No one of course.,” Carlson emphasised.

Carlson concluded by warning that “The WHO, which followed China’s instructions and told the world that COVID wasn’t really transmissible by air, now has the full support of the Biden administration.”

“This is despite the fact American intelligence can prove that the WHO lied, and people died as a result of those lies. Even as of now, the U.S. government has not launched any broad and serious investigation into where the coronavirus came from.” Carlson added.

In a separate Fox News broadcast Monday, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who has continually spoken about the evidence of a lab leak, expressed his disgust at witnessing government scientists over the past year dismissing the possibility of COVID-19 originating from a lab “when they surely must have seen the same information that I had seen.”

“That includes, certainly, Dr. Fauci as well,” Pompeo noted:

*  *  *

CHINA VS GLOBE AND USA DOLLAR
China is worried about inflation but also trade.  A lower yuan helps the country in trade but also higher inflation. They are caught between a rock and a hard place
(zerohedge)

Chinese Banks Buy Dollars To Weaken Yuan In Latest Intervention

 
TUESDAY, MAY 25, 2021 – 10:45 AM

Just days after senior PBOC officials spoke up about moving to stabilize the yuan as it continued to strengthen against the dollar, Chinese banks have reportedly stepped in to buy dollars and sell the yuan in the open market, the latest in a series of interventions that are seemingly stretching the limits of Beijing’s authoritarian capability to control markets

Over the past month, reports about another crackdown on crypto trading and mining by Beijing sent prices of digital currencies reeling, while senior CCP officials have stepped in to forcibly cool speculation driving up commodity prices.

On top of all this, the weakening greenback has driven the yuan to its strongest level in nearly three years, hurting China’s competitiveness at a time when an ongoing state-ordered deleveraging has sent China’s all-important credit impulse into negative territory, limiting the outlook for growth just as the outlook for China’s economy is becoming increasingly important to the global narrative.

As for the interventions, a handful of traders told Bloomberg that large Chinese state-owned banks were selling yuan in the open market Tuesday. Despite this, and a weaker-than-expected yuan fixing, USD/CNY fell 0.3% to 6.4030, the yuan’s strongest level since June 2018.

Reports noted possible intervention in both USD/CNY and USD/CNH pairs at around the 6.4000 level in order to stem the yuan’s appreciation.

With month-end pressures building, driving the yuan higher, the intervention comes as the Chinese currency arrives at an important technical level that highlights just how much the yuan has strengthened during the dollar’s recent bear run.

The dollar is also at a critical level…

…and looking ahead, a renewed currency war pitting China against the US and the dollar against the yuan could represent a fresh threat to market stability, as any reversal of the greenback’s recent weakness (which has, much to Beijing’s delight, sparked renewed talk of the greenback shedding its global reserve status) could upset several consensus trades  (sell-side analysts have been writing about how “short dollar” is perhaps the biggest global ‘consensus trade’ for almost a year).

All this is happening as the impact of the credit tsunami unleashed in 2020 by Beijing to combat the COVID pandemic is fading fast as China’s credit impulse officially turned negative, threatening to send a deflationary shockwave across the globe.

The direct intervention comes just days after the PBOC signaled that it wouldn’t allow the yuan to strengthen too much, too quickly.

In a statement released Sunday, the deputy governor of the PBOC said the yuan would remain “basically stable,” while another central bank official wrote that the yuan should appreciate to offset the higher costs of commodity imports. However, that second essay, published in a state-backed magazine on Friday, has since been deleted, according to Bloomberg.

That Beijing is having trouble reconciling this is hardly a surprise. China’s economic nabobs now once again find themselves in the unenviable task of trying to control everything – fighting commodity speculation, a currency at a nearly three-year high, a crypto market that serves as a backdoor for wealth fleeing the country – and even the dominance of Chinese tech firms that have become so economically powerful, they have made President Xi and the rest of the senior leadership uncomfortable. And ultimately, Beijing is doing all this as it tries to pull a literal rabbit out of a hat: trying to spur economic growth while continuing to deleverage, while hampering the international competitiveness of its biggest tech companies.

END

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

UK/CHINA

Maybe they should pay attention to us: the UK government says the WHO needs to “explore all possible theories: on COVID 19 origins.  The problem;  The WHO are bought and paid for by the Chinese Communist party.

(zerohedge)

 

UK Government Says WHO Needs To “Explore All Possible Theories” On COVID Origins

 
TUESDAY, MAY 25, 2021 – 05:00 AM

Authored by Lily Zhou via The Epoch Times,

The World Health Organization’s (WHO) investigation into the origins of the CCP (Chinese Communist Party) virus must be “robust, transparent, and independent,” and needs to “explore all possible theories,” the UK government said on Monday.

The remarks came after Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s official spokesman was asked about a report published by The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) on Sunday citing unnamed officials saying that a U.S. intelligence report revealed three researchers from the Wuhan Institute of Virology sought hospital care a month before the Chinese regime reported the first cases of what became known as COVID-19, the disease caused by the CCP virus.

fact sheet released by the U.S. State Department on Jan. 15 said that several researchers at the institute fell ill with symptoms similar to those caused by the CCP virus in autumn 2019, but did not mention the number of researchers and the exact time when they fell ill.

When asked to comment on the WSJ report on Monday, Johnson’s spokesman said: “The WHO investigation into the origins of the virus is ongoing and we have been clear throughout that it must be robust, transparent, and independent.

“The investigation needs to explore all possible theories on how COVID-19 made that jump from animals to humans and how it spread and that’s vital to ensure we learn lessons from this crisis and prevent another global pandemic,” he added.

Asked whether the report suggested the possibility of a leak from a lab, the spokesman said, “We want to let the WHO investigation run thoroughly and be carried out properly and then make a judgment from that.”

report from the WHO published in March said that the CCP virus likely spread to people via an unknown animal, but WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said the mission to study the origins of the virus did not adequately analyze other theories.

“As far as WHO is concerned, all hypotheses remain on the table … We have not yet found the source of the virus,” Ghebreyesus said.

The report’s conclusion was largely based on the WHO’s investigative efforts in January and February this year. Critics noted that the Chinese communist regime had a significant role in their investigation and accused them of engaging in a cover-up.

Earlier this month, U.S. infectious disease expert Dr. Anthony Fauci said that he is now “not convinced” that the virus developed naturally, and called for a deeper probe into its origins.

On the same day, when asked by a doctor during a Senate hearing about whether it’s possible that the virus arose from a lab accident in Wuhan, Fauci responded, “That possibility certainly exists.”

“I am totally in favor of a full investigation of whether that could have happened,” he said.

Days later, PolitiFact quietly retracted a September 2020 fact check that labeled a Hong Kong virologist’s claim that the virus originated in a lab as inaccurate and a “debunked conspiracy theory.”

Yuan Zhiming, director of the Wuhan National Biosafety Laboratory, refuted the WSJ report on Monday, calling it “a complete lie,” according to Chinese state-run media Global Times.

When asked about the report by Bloomberg on Monday, the spokesman for the Chinese foreign affairs ministry Zhao Lijian said the Wuhan institute had already made a statement on March 23 saying it had not been in contact with the CCP virus, and that no staff or researcher had been infected with the virus so far.

 

-END-

EU/BELARUS

EU sanctions Belarus for state terrorism

(zerohedge)

EU Sanctions Belarus For “State Terrorism” – National Airline Now Banned From Europe’s Airspace

 
TUESDAY, MAY 25, 2021 – 09:47 AM

As we noted on Monday European countries, following the example of Lithuania and the UK, are now effectively imposing a ban on European carriers flying through Belarusian airspace after Sunday’s Ryanair incident where the Ireland-based airliner was forcibly diverted from its flight path to land in Minsk, in order for Belarusian authorities to arrest anti-Lukashenko journalist Roman Protasevich.

And simultaneously EU leaders have barred Belarusian airlines from flying over EU territory, which would be devastating to state-owned Belavia’s operations and the Belarusian economy broadly. The UK on Monday confirmed that it has suspended the national Belarusian airline’s operating permit. Protasevich’s girlfriend Sofia Sapega had also been detained. “European leaders meeting in Brussels called for the release of the pair and hit back at Minsk by agreeing to ban Belarusian airlines from the bloc and urging EU-based carriers not to fly over its airspace,” Moscow Times reports.

 

Via TASS

Brussels has also confirmed it’s looking to expand and ramp up already in place sanctions against the country and its 27-year long strongman ruler Alexander Lukashenko. CNBC notes that the US will likely move on imposing its own measures in conjunction with the EU: “…the EU’s decision to implement new sanctions Monday was welcomed across the Atlantic, and President Joe Biden said the US will look at imposing measures against Belarus too,” the report notes.

The Ryanair flight from Athens to Vilnius, Lithuania had been intercepted and escorted by Belrusian Air Force MiG-21 jets, which US and EU officials have slammed as putting the 170 passengers at risk. Americans had been among the international passengers on board. 

Pratasevich had been arrested the moment the plane touched down in Minsk – after which there was near universal condemnation and outrage coming from the West over what many dubbed “state hijacking” and “state terrorism”

The European Council is now said to be drawing up a list of “persons and entities” in Belarus to potentially be subject of new targeted sanctions. This after sanctions which go back to the early 2000’s against 88 individuals and seven organizations are already in place, according to BBC, which reviews further

The EU first introduced restrictive measures against Belarus in 2004, following the disappearance of two opposition politicians, a journalist and a businessman several years earlier. These included an arms embargo and a ban on “the export of goods linked to internal repression”.

The EU imposed more sanctions against Belarus on 1 October 2020, in response to the “brutality of the Belarusian authorities and in support of the democratic rights of the Belarusian people”.

Meanwhile a video of a detained and roughed-up looking Roman Protasevich has appeared online…

Any looming punitive actions will likely take the form of travel bans and asset freezes – but again, the most economically devastating will be those possibly permanent actions targeting the country’s commercial airline industry.

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

 

RUSSIA/USA/GERMANY

Russian vessels enter German waters for the last leg of NordStream 2 pipelaying. Biden did not sanction Germany but did sanction Russia again

(zerohedge)

Russian Vessel Enters German Waters For Last Leg Of Nord Stream 2 Pipelaying

 
TUESDAY, MAY 25, 2021 – 02:45 AM

Late last week the Biden administration slapped yet more sanctions on Russian entities, including 13 vessels and their owners, which are in the final stretch of laying the Russia to German natural gas pipeline Nord Stream 2 (said to be well over 90% complete). Just days prior the administration sent contradictory signals when it removed sanctions against the German overseer of the project Nord Stream 2 AG and CEO Matthias Warnig, in an attempt to mend relations with Berlin.

As expected, the conflicting actions has thwarted neither side of the project, as on Monday for the first time the Russian vessel Fortuna began laying pipes in German waters. While the Fortuna itself is under US sanctions, initially put in place under the Trump White House, Germany’s Waterway and Shipping Authority proudly confirmed that it’s begun work on this final section.

 

Via MarineTraffic.com

“All works are performed in accordance with the available permits,” Nord Stream 2 said a statement, according to Reuters“Fortuna will be working in German waters from May 22 to June 30, having earlier laid pipes in Denmark.”

On the Russian side state energy giant Gazprom has overseen the $11 billion dollar project, and months ago warned that should the US sanctions noose tighten further, the pipeline could see significant delays.

Germany has along with Russia fought back against Washington efforts to see the construction halted, long rejecting US punitive measures as interference in its domestic affairs, but with last Wednesday’s removal of sanctions for the German overseer of the project – this served to drastically ease tensions with Berlin over the matter, with German foreign minister Heiko Maas thanking the Biden administration for doing so. 

“We understand the decisions that have been taken in Washington as taking into account the really extraordinarily good relationship that have been built with the Biden administration,” Maas had said.

But as we noted at the time, Biden was immediately slammed for the act of “capitulation” after long vowing to get “tough” on Russia by Republicans but also Democrat hawks, including in conservative and independent media outlets which pointed out that Trump would have no doubt been accused of being under “Russian influence” had he been the one to relax sanctions.

end

6.Global Issues

CORONAVIRUS UPDATE/VACCINE

Michael Every on the days most important topics

(courtesy Michael Every)

Bezos. Jeff Bezos

 
TUESDAY, MAY 25, 2021 – 08:00 AM

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Who Has Got Any Talent?

Amazon is going to buy MGM studios for USD 9bn. Not for love of ‘Ars’ or ‘Artis’, but for the gratis intellectual property that can be switched to its streaming service. Coverage of this deal is accompanied by pictures of James Bond, because he is MGM’s. Yet given the Bond films have aged badly, and there is not that much excitement for the ‘new’ one, we can probably expect spin-offs like ‘Young James Bond’; Woody Allen’s Jimmy Bond from the 1967 Casino Royale, which also starred Peter Sellers as James Bond; and Roger Moore, the actor himself, as the post-plastic surgery Inspector Clouseau. Such gems will soon be Amazon’s. In short, while there is a critical shortage of content for the streaming screen time we are all embracing, I am not sure if the real solution comes from the supply side, rather than just watching less rubbish.

Meanwhile, such imbalances, and which side to solve them from, remain true all over. In US/Western labor markets there is also a mad search for talent – and a critical shortage: yet the average SME can’t pony up USD9bn to encourage bar-staff to come back. So does that mean the economy is weak or strong? And on the goods front, it is still unclear how we are going to get more supply at all for some things. The lag time in many cases is long, and in the interim demand patterns can shift towards expecting scarcer goods, and so to hoarding. We’ve seen it with toilet roll, for just one example that luckily has been resolved. But does this mean the economy is weak or strong?

For now, aggressive jawboning from China is seeing commodity prices cool, suggesting a sweet spot. Yet until we see structural shifts, like the Fed tapering, they are likely to pop back up again.Don’t lower prices create demand for things there is questionable supply of? And while hoarding and speculation are being threatened with a hard crackdown, Premier Li Keqiang also just urged further strengthening of commodity imports, storage, and transportation(!) Moreover, while a Chinese official suggested, then deleted, the idea that a stronger CNY might help to curb inflationary pressures, won’t this just make commodities cheaper, and so push up demand further? Yet if they let the currency stay “basically stable”, then what is actually being done on inflation? As Bloomberg argues “Central Banks Running Out of Options as Recovery Falters in Asia”: and they are all feverishly working through their back catalogue for intellectual property and talent as to what to do next.

A down-up dynamic is evidently also true of crypto. Despite further US officials warning why they are not the soup for you, and China reiterating its opposition to mining, prices just surged again. Elon Musk is naturally involved (for the nth time, like Bond), now pretending US Bitcoin miners have a choice over the ‘green-ness’ of the electricity they use. On which note, a perfect description of Bitcoin, relying on UK comedy intellectual property, is ‘a bunch of computers all shouting: “Is this Numberwang?

So, rebound or death-rattle? The Wall Street Journal ran an article yesterday arguing “Yes, Bitcoin Is Useless. Many Will Say: So What?”, arguing while crypto has no intrinsic value, humanity’s love for useless things means they aren’t necessarily worth nothing. I suppose if cinematic dross like ‘Curse of the Pink Panther’ is part of a package worth USD9bn then they have a case, but it’s hardly the early ‘We are the future!’ promise. And if you thought the fight over crypto was fun, Bloomberg also has a story today noting: “A slew of newer and lesser known reference rates are staking their claim to a share of the post-Libor landscape as the outlook for the space grows increasingly fractured.”  

So we don’t know when our workers will agree to come back; or where our goods supply will come from; or what demand will do; or what currency things should be priced in; or what benchmark interest rate to borrow at. But all else is fine. Where’s a British secret agent to sort this chaos out when needed?

More so when we have the nefarious games being played by Belarus: which, Russia retorts, was a dirty trick first used by the US/EU to stop President Morales of Bolivia flying to Moscow to pick up Edward Snowden in 2013. Roman Protasevich, the Belarussian dissident taken from the skyjacked Ryanair flight, has appeared on TV to confess to crimes against the state in Stalinist fashion. The EU has demanded his immediate release; planes are diverting around Belarus airspace; new economic sanctions are to be imposed; and a ban on the Belarussian national airline entering EU airspace.

However, there appears no sign that Belarus or Russia are concerned. Rather, President Lukashenko just approved legislation to ban journalists from providing live coverage of mass protests, and to shut down media outlets without even going through a rubber-stamp court. After all, this litmus test for the EU’s “open strategic autonomy” is happening while Germany races to locks itself in to Russian gas for the foreseeable future, and as French officials talk about the need for “dialogue” with Moscow “to enable Belarus to become a democracy”(!!) What was I just saying about the global lack of talent?

German addiction to buying Russian gas and selling Russians cars aside, the overall zeitgeist now suggests the hypothetical, multipolar, fractured, more illiberal ‘World in 2030’ we discussed last year might instead be the ‘World at 20:30’ (as in later this evening). Adding to which, New Zealand’s foreign minister has just told The Guardian:

“We cannot ignore, obviously, what’s happening in Australia with their relationship with China. And if they are close to an eye of the storm or in the eye of the storm, we’ve got to legitimately ask ourselves – it may only be a matter of time before the storm gets closer to usThe signal I’m sending to exporters is that they need to think about diversification in this context – Covid-19, broadening relationships across our region, and the buffering aspects of if something significant happened with China. Would they be able to withstand the impact?

That’s a watch-the-tail-risk message repeated here (and directly in New Zealand) since 2017, but to hear it openly from a key member of the government is something else entirely. At least they are starting to deal with real problems, rather than looking at screens as a distraction.

end

7. OIL ISSUES

WTI Bounces Back Above $66 After Inventory Draws Across Entire Complex

 
TUESDAY, MAY 25, 2021 – 04:34 PM

Oil prices ended marginally lower after a choppy day of investors tempering expectations of an early return of oil exporter Iran to international crude markets (bullish) and US virus cases falling rapidly ahead of Memorial Day travels (bullish) battling with the overall weakness in economic data and slop in US equity markets and lower bond yields (bearish).

“Oil prices… remain at high levels as the high season for oil demand is approaching and as restrictions are lifted in much of Europe and the United States,” said Louise Dickson, oil markets analyst at Rystad Energy.

The swings in crude and product stocks in the last couple of weeks have been noisy thanks to the Colonial Pipeline shutdown. This week we should start to put that behind us, although product stocks may still be impacted.

API

  • Crude -439k (-1mm exp)

  • Cushing -1.153mm

  • Gasoline -1.986mm (-1.1mm exp)

  • Distillates -5.137mm (-2mm exp)

Analysts expected inventory draws across the board this week, and they were right with Gasoline stocks down notably more than expected for the 7th straight week…

Source: Bloomberg

WTI hovered around $65.90 ahead of the API data and pushed back above $66 after the print.

“Crude prices are in wait-and-see mode until the fifth round of negotiations to revive the Iran nuclear deal are done,” said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA, noting “Energy traders need to know how much Iranian crude is going to hit the market.”

Iran may have some 69 million barrels of oil in floating storage waiting on tankers to travel to buyers when U.S. sanctions on its crude oil exports are removed, estimates from E.A. Gibson Shipbrokers cited by Bloomberg showed on Tuesday.

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

INDIA//CORONAVIRUS UPDATE/VACCINE UPDATE
 
 
END

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings TUESDAY  morning 7:30 AM….

Euro/USA 1.2256 UP .0042 /EUROPE BOURSES /ALL GREEN EXCEPT LONDON  

USA/ YEN 108.88 UP 0.037 /NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.4165  UP   0.0011  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/

USA/CAN 1.2034  DOWN .0015

 

Early THIS  TUESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE BY 42 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.2212 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 84.06 PTS OR 2.40% 

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 498.60 PTS OR 2.30%

 

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 1.00% // EUROPEAN BOURSES OPENED ALL GREEN EXCEPT LONDON 

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES CLOSED ALL GREEN EXCEPT LONDON    

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 498.60 PTS OR 2.30%

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 84.06 PTS OR 2.40% 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP 1.00%

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 189.39 PTS OR 0.67%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1883.50

silver:$27.69-

Early TUESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yr: 1.592% !!! DOWN 1 IN POINTS from MONDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

The 30 yr bond yield 2.289 DOWN 1  IN BASIS POINTS from MONDAY night.

USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 89.64  DOWN 20 CENT(S) from MONDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers TUESDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing  TUESDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.50% DOWN 5  in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.075%  DOWN 7/10   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.50%//  DOWN 5 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:  0.97 DOWN 5  points in basis points yield from yesterday./

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 47 points higher than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.164% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.13% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR  TUESDAY

Closing currency crosses for MONDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.2234  UP     .0021 or 21 basis points

USA/Japan: 108.96  UP .107 OR YEN DOWN 11  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.4125 DOWN .0030 POUND DOWN 30  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 26 basis points to 1.2076

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The USA/Yuan,  CNY: closed    ON SHORE  (UP).. 6.4110

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN UP)..6.4085

TURKISH LIRA:  8.47  EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.076%

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 2 IN basis points from MONDAY at 1.580 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.2742 DOWN 3 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 89.79  DOWN 6  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for TUESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 15.84 PTS OR 0.22% 

 

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 36.36 PTS OR 0.24% 

 

Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 9.28  PTS OR 0.14% 

 

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP  12.80  PTS OR  0.14%

 

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 31.84 PTS OR 0.34% 

 

WTI Oil price; 66.02 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 68.47 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE FALLS:    73.47  THE CROSS  HIGHER BY 0.01 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE LOWER BY 1 BASIS PTS)

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.164 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM : 65.94//

BRENT :  68.40

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 1.559..DOWN 4 basis points…

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.256 DOWN 4 basis points..

EURO/USA 1.2246 (UP 22   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:108.75 DOWN .105 (YEN UP 11 BASIS POINTS/..

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 89.69 DOWN 15  cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.4143 DOWN 12  POINTS

the Turkish lira close: 8.46

the Russian rouble 73.49   DOWN 0.04 Roubles against the uSA dollar. (DOWN 4 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.2067  DOWN 17 BASIS pts

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.164%

The Dow closed DOWN 81.52 POINTS OR 0.24%

NASDAQ closed DOWN 4.00 POINTS OR 0.03%


VOLATILITY INDEX:  18.87 CLOSED UP .47

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 0.147%//libor dropping like a stone

USA trading day in Graph Form

Bonds & Bullion Bid, Stocks Skid As Stimmy-less Sentiment Slumps

 
TUESDAY, MAY 25, 2021 – 04:01 PM

The day started off with an exuberant buying-panic in Small Caps at the US cash open (as the rest of the majors were sold). That lasted around 12 minutes before Small Caps reversed that maniacal spike and everything accelerated into the red and beyond into the European close. A brief bounce ensued, only for that rip to be sold and as the old “WSB” names started to rise, so Small Caps and the rest of the major indices tumbled in the last hour. Nasdaq managed to close green, none of the other majors did with Small Caps the laggards (from up 1% at the open to down 1% at the close)

Amid the lowest volume of the year…

Source: Bloomberg

Sentiment slipped for the first time this year with buying plans crashing. New home sales crashed… and home prices are exploding… and RRP volumes are exploding…

Those old “WSB” short-squeeze names were back today…

Source: Bloomberg

With GME topping $200 once again…

And AMC even more aggressively bid…

The dollar ended slightly lower despite China’s best efforts overnight…

Source: Bloomberg

As China told its banks to buy USD to intervene in the Yuan’s strength…

Source: Bloomberg

Bonds were aggressively bid too – down around 4bps across the curve – helped by a rock solid 2Y auction…

Source: Bloomberg

With 10Y tumbling below 1.60 and accelerated down to critical level near its lowest close in over two months…

Source: Bloomberg

Real yields are continued to revert lower (catching up with Gold’s signal)…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold futures surged back above $1900 – almost back in the green for the year…

Silver rallied back above $28 today…

WTI ended very marginally lower on the day, stalling around the $66.50 level once again ahead of tonight’s inventory data…

Cryptos were mixed today, though generally lower in the majors. Ethereum oscillated around $2600…

Source: Bloomberg

And Bitcoin hovered around $38k after briefly tagging $40k…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin has decoupled from the dollar and gold has reverted to its partnership with the bumbling buck…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, it is pretty clear that there are some serious issues occurring under the hood of ‘calm’ in these markets as the size of RRPs is exploding in a massive rejection of The Fed’s liquidity spigot

Source: Bloomberg

And, as Curvature notes, “Yesterday, GC averaged at -.0099%, which was the lowest non-quarter-end, non-year-end average EVER. The previous record low was -.0078% on March 19.”

And we all know what “reality” the ‘market’ faces, if The Fed ever stops… (and don’t forget SF Fed’s Daly admitted today that they’re “talking about talking about tapering…”)

Trade accordingly.

END

a)Market trading/THIS MORNING/USA

end

afternoon trading

Reverse repo is out of collateral.  The facility has grown from zero up to 433 billion dollars today.  It means that the banks including foreign banks are up to their gills in reserves and the money markets are out of collateral

(zerohedge)

“RRP Explosion”: Fed Reverse Repo Soars To Third Highest With “Incredible Amount Of Cash”

 
TUESDAY, MAY 25, 2021 – 01:41 PM

Ahead of today’s 1:15pm overnight Reverse Repo deadline we asked (for the second day in a row) if today was the day the repo market finally cracks, pushing the amount of reserves parked at the Fed to a new record above $500 billion.

And for the second day in a row, we were off, but we are getting warmed by the day: on Tuesday, the Fed revealed that the amount of overnight reserves parked at the Fed rose by another $38BN to $433BN (with 48 counterparties, down from 54 yesterday) from $394.9BN on Monday, which was the 3rd highest in history, up a whopping $190 billion in one week and the highest non-quarter end reverse repo usage ever!

Why does this matter? Three reasons, all of which we explained in extensive detail in Fed Alert: Overnight Reverse Repo Usage Soars Above Covid Crisis HighsRepo Crisis Looms: Fed’s Reverse Repo Usage Soars To $351BN, Fifth Highest Ever, and Zoltan On The Coming QE Endgame: “Banks Have No More Space For Reserves,

  1. The Fed is taking Treasurys out of the market through QE purchases and putting them right back in via the RRP
  2. The heavy use of the o/n RRP facility tells us that foreign banks too are now chock-full of reserves.
  3. Banks don’t have the balance sheet to warehouse any more reserves at current spread levels.

As for the immediate market implications they are even more ominous: either the Fed will have to hike the IOER or rates will soon go negative. Worse, with the Fed still planning to do at least $1 trillion in QE even assuming a December taper, and potentially as much as $2 trillion based on the latest just released Fed “forecast”, there is simply no place to park all of these reserves.

It’s not just us concerned about how clogged up the market plumbing has become: in his daily Repo Market Commentary note from Monday, Curvature’s repo market guru Scott Skyrm wrote the following:

RRP Explosion

On March 17, a little over two months ago, there was no volume at the Fed’s RRP window. Nothing. Today, it was almost $400 billion! How do you go from zero to $400 billion in two months? Not only was today’s activity at the RRP one of the largest ever, it was also THE largest non-quarter-end, non-year-end print. There’s an incredible amount of cash in the Repo market right now! Clearly, the Fed took too much collateral out of the market – or – added too much cash.

The market is distorted from too much QE and hopefully QE tapering will be announced in June.

And while Powell & Co pretend that they can continue business as usual for years to come, the repo market is not only cracking but banks, full to the gills with inert reserves and which increase by $30 billion every week, are on the verge of pulling a Mr Creosote…

… and balking at even a penny of additional liquidity. How the Fed will continue to monetize debt then, when the repo system is now out of collateral, is anyone’s guess.

 
ii) Market data

USA HOUSE PRICES

As expected USA home prices explode at the fastest pace since 2013 due to higher commodity prices.

(zerohedge)

US Home Prices Explode At Fastest Pace Since 2013

 
TUESDAY, MAY 25, 2021 – 09:05 AM

“In real terms, home prices have never been so high. My data goes back over 100 years, so this is something,” Nobel prize-winning economist Robert Shiller told CNBC’s “Trading Nation” earlier this week and according to Case-Shiller’s latest data (for March) released today, home prices in America (the 20-City Composite) are surging at a stunning 13.27% YoY (up 1.6% MoM)…

Source: Bloomberg

Phoenix, San Diego, Seattle reported highest year-over-year gains among 20 cities surveyed.

“These data are consistent with the hypothesis that COVID has encouraged potential buyers to move from urban apartments to suburban homes,” Craig Lazzara, global head of index investment strategy at S&P Dow Jones Indices, said in statement.

This demand may represent buyers who accelerated purchases that would have happened anyway over the next several years. Alternatively, there may have been a secular change in preferences, leading to a permanent shift in the demand curve for housing.”

As Shiller noted, that is the highest price ever and over 19% higher than the home price index was at the peak in 2006…

Finally, we revert back to the man behind the index. Shiller believes the current housing market environment is similar to 2003, five years before the housing market crash in 2008. 

“If you go out three or five years, I could imagine they’d [prices] be substantially lower than they are now, and maybe that’s a good thing,” he added.

“Not from the standpoint of a homeowner, but it’s from the standpoint of a prospective homeowner. It’s a good thing. If we have more houses, we’re better off.”

end

New Home Sales

New home sales plunge due to affordability as prices of new homes skyrocket

(zerohedge)

US New Home Sales Plunge After Massive Downward Revision As Prices Soar

 
TUESDAY, MAY 25, 2021 – 10:11 AM

With home prices soaring at their fastest pace since 2005 in March, and existing home sales unexpectedly tumbling for the 32rd straight month in April, analysts expected new home sales to finally fall prey to the affordability crisis in April (after screaming 20.7% MoM higher in March due to February’s weather impacts). Thanks to a massive downward revision for March – from that 20.7% to just 7.4% – April new home sales plunged 5.9% MoM (from that revised print).

Ignore the YoY comps since nothing sold last year.

Source: Bloomberg

Having bucked the trend of existing- and pending-home sales, new home sales have finally snapped lower to 863k (losing the 1 million mark once again)…

Source: Bloomberg

A jump in building materials costs is contributing to higher prices, a headwind for an otherwise robust housing market.

New home sales fell in the Northeast (-13.7%),Midwest *-8.3%), and the South (-8.2%), but rose in the West (+7.9% vs -31.8% in March).

And, as we have noted recently, the enthusiasm of homebuilders (near record highs) is mirrored almost perfectly by the total disdain of homebuyers (near record lows) as rates rising alongside home prices removes all but the wealthiest from the American Dream pipeline…

Source: Bloomberg

So, Mr. Powell, keep pumping (and face even bigger crises), or pull the rip cord now and deal with the carnage?

end

Confidence Index

Stagnates in May as the hope button evaporates

(zerohedge)

Conference Board Confidence Stagnates In May As ‘Hope’ Evaporates

 
TUESDAY, MAY 25, 2021 – 10:20 AM

The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence index disappointedly slipped lower in May from a revised lower 117.5 to 117.2 (well below the 118.8 exp), still well below the pre-COVID levels of exuberance.

Source: Bloomberg

The driver is clear as ‘current conditions’ surge from 131.9 to 144.3, ‘hope’ for the future rolled over significantly from 107.9 to 99.1.

“Consumers’ assessment of present-day conditions improved, suggesting economic growth remains robust” in the second quarter, said Lynn Franco, senior director of economic indicators at the Conference Board, in a statement.

“However, consumers’ short-term optimism retreated, prompted by expectations of decelerating growth and softening labor market conditions in the months ahead.”

Plans to buy cars, homes, and major appliances all tumbled in May.

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

Chicago

Idiots

Chicago to divide restaurants into vax and non vaxx sections

(zerohedge)

“Decided To Divide” – Chicago Segregates Restaurants For Un-Vaxx’d

 
TUESDAY, MAY 25, 2021 – 05:45 AM

If you want any more evidence COVID-19 has been a pandemic of inequality – take, for example, Chicago restaurant owners, who plan to introduce vaccinated and non-vaccinated sections, according to CBS Chicago.

This brings us back to the 1990s when there were restaurants offering smoking and smoke-free sections. The division is clear, and the vaccine is dividing us all. 

Chicago officials are still in the reopening phase and plan to be fully open by July 4. Per new guidance from Mayor Lori Lightfoot, businesses can operate with no restrictions as long as there is a section for vaccinated people. 

This weekend, at Moe’s Cantina Chicago, neon bracelets will be handed out to vaccinated people where they can mingle in an unrestricted section in the restaurant. For everyone else, the unvaccinated section will have socially distanced tables and partitions. 

“We decided to divide, and you’re free to come on this side, go to the bar. You can be pre-pandemic,” said owner Sam Sanchez.

Sanchez said customers would have to show proof of their complete vaccination history to relax in a no restriction section that resembles a pre-COVID world. 

 

The discrimination against people who are vaxxed and non-vaxxed is made part by Lightfoot’s liberal run City Hall, who announced last week, “establishments can operate without COVID-19 restrictions within their establishment if only vaccinated patrons and employees are allowed in within that area.”

Sanchez serves as Chairman of the Illinois Restaurant Association and says the direction the city government is taking “is to get the economy back to normal.” 

Good intentions may very well lead to a two-tiered society where the “vaxxed” discriminate against the “non-vaxxed.” 

end

AMAZON//USA ATTORNEY GENERAL

We must put a stop to Amazon’s monopolistic practices

(zerohedge)

DC Attorney General Files Antitrust Lawsuit Against Amazon

 
TUESDAY, MAY 25, 2021 – 12:13 PM

Amazon shares skidded to session lows just before noon ET on Tuesday after Washington DC’s Attorney General Karl Racine unveiled a new anti-trust lawsuit against the e-commerce giant, alleging that the company’s practices have unfairly raised prices for consumers while suppressing competition and innovation.

As a result, the lawsuit is seeking to end Amazon’s use of allegedly illegal price agreements to edge out competitors, recover damages and impose penalties. The lawsuit alleges that Amazon’s conduct made it virtually impossible for third-party sellers to offer goods at a better price than Amazon.

Washington DC AG Karl Racine

The lawsuit, filed in Washington DC Superior Court, alleged that Amazon illegally maintained monopoly power by using contract provisions to prevent third-party sellers on its platform from offering their products for lower prices on other platforms. The attorney general’s office claimed the contracts create a “an artificially high price floor across the online retail marketplace,” according to a press release. The AG claimed these agreements ultimately harm both consumers and third-party sellers by reducing competition, innovation and choice.

Until 2019, Amazon included a clause in its third-party seller agreement that they couldn’t offer goods on Amazon at a higher price than they were offered on other third-party platforms. Amazon eventually removed that provision amid growing anti-trust scrutiny.

The lawsuit comes as state AGs and the DoJ filed antitrust lawsuits against Google and Facebook; Amazon is also reportedly in the sights of federal regulators. But Tuesday’s action comes from Racine’s office alone.

Racine said on a call with reporters on Tuesday that the central focus of the lawsuit – contracts known as “most favored nation” agreements – was something that he felt should be taken on independently due to the sheer amount of work involved in bringing these types of lawsuits

Commodity  markets

none

 

end

INFLATION WATCH

Important:

soaring prices result in record crash in home sales but higher prices for those homes.  Also home appliance buying plummets.

(zerohedge)

Here Comes The Hangover: Soaring Prices Result In Record Crash In Home, Appliance Buying Plans

 
TUESDAY, MAY 25, 2021 – 01:21 PM

For the past several months we have warned about the pernicious effects soaring prices are having on both corporations (“Buckle Up! Inflation Is Here!“) and consumers (“”This Is Not Transitory”: Hyperinflation Fears Are Soaring Across America“), prompting even otherwise boring sellside research to get  (hyper) exciting, with Bank of America predicting that “Transitory Hyperinflation Lies Ahead.

But none of this has spooked the Fed into conceding – or believing – that inflation is anything more than transitory. And maybe just this once, the Fed has a point because all else equal, by which we mean lack of rising wages, the best cure to higher prices is, well… higher prices.

Presenting Exhibit A: understanding that Biden’s stimmy bonanza is about to end and that soon they will have to live again within their means, Americans’ buying intentions (6 months from today) as measured by the Conference Board, have cratered across the 3 major spending categories: homes, automobiles and major household appliances.

The drop was so massive, it amounted to the biggest one-month drop in intentions to purchase appliances…

… and homes…

This confirms what we noted earlier, namely a record divergence between crashing homebuyer confidence (due to record home prices) and soaring homebuilder confidence (also due to record home prices). Guess which one will matter in the end.

This, for better or worse, screams stagflation: as Lynn Franco, senior director of economic indicators at the Conference Board, said while consumers’ assessment of present-day conditions improved, “consumers’ short-term optimism retreated, prompted by expectations of decelerating growth and softening labor market conditions in the months ahead.”

While it’s clear why stagflation will be “worse”, we say better because if nothing else these data confirm that US consumers are now tapped out, if not today, then certainly 6 months from today when Biden’s trillions in stimmies will have been long spent, and the spending spree will be over.

Oh, and for those saying wage hikes may be permanent we have some bad news: employers know very well that the extended unemployment benefits bonanza ends in September at which point millions of currently unemployed workers will flood back into the labor force sending wages sharply lower, and is why instead of raising base pay, most potential employers offer one-time bonuses, which – as the name implies – are one-time. As for higher wage pressures, well… just wait until October when everything reverses, Uncle Sam is no longer a better paying competitor to the US private sector, and wages slump.

What does that mean for the economy? Well, all those producers and retailers who got used to bumper demand and pushed their prices sharply and not so sharply higher, will face a stark choice: either drag prices right back down, or sell far fewer goods and services. That, or just await the next bailout.

One thing is certain: six months from today, the US economy will be far, far uglier.

END

VACCINE WATCH/CORONAVIRUS UPDATE/

TEXAS

How Texas killed the virus!

Ron Paul: How Texas Killed COVID

 
TUESDAY, MAY 25, 2021 – 03:41 PM

Authored by Ron Paul via The Ron Paul Institute for Peace & Prosperity,

In March, Governor Greg Abbott announced that Texas would open for business 100 percent without a statewide mask mandate.

The pro-lockdown “experts” were shocked. If a state as big as Texas joined Florida and succeeded in thumbing its nose at “the science” – which told us that for the first time in history healthy people should be forced to stay in their houses and wear oxygen-restricting face masks – then the lockdown narrative would begin falling apart.

President Biden famously attacked the decision as “Neanderthal thinking.” Texas Democratic Party Chairman Gilberto Hinojosa warned that, with this order, Abbott would “kill Texans.” Incoming CDC Director Rochelle Walensky tearfully told us about her feelings of “impending doom.”

When the poster child for Covid lockdowns Dr. Fauci was asked several weeks later why cases and deaths continued to evaporate in Texas, he answered simply, “I’m not sure.” That moment may have been a look at the man behind the proverbial curtain, who projected his power so confidently until confronted with reality.

Now a new study appearing as a National Bureau of Economic Research working paper, highlighted recently in Reason Magazine, has found “no evidence that the reopening affected the rate of new COVID-19 cases in the five-week period following the reopening. …State-level COVID-19 mortality rates were unaffected by the March 10 reopening.”

In other words, not only did the doom and gloom predicted by the lockdown fanatics fail to materialize, but the steady, seasonal downward trend of the virus toward extinction continued regardless of government action. As we have repeated for a year on the Liberty Report, the virus was going to virus regardless of anything we did about it. And Texas proved it.

However, some very important questions remain to be answered as the Covid panic across the United States is finally starting to recede.

First, will anyone be held responsible for the thousands who died because of the prohibition on safe treatments such as hydroxychloroquine and Ivermectin that have since been shown to be effective against Covid-19?

As soon as Donald Trump mentioned that hydroxychloroquine might be effective against the virus, the “experts” circled the wagons. It was banned for use, until it later was quietly un-banned.

The politicization of medicine is anti-science, anti-human, and anti-American. Will those who needlessly died due to this politicization finally get their justice?

Second, though Abbott deserves credit for taking the bold step, shouldn’t he be held accountable for closing the state in the first place?

After all, when someone has been punching you in the face and then they stop, do you thank them for letting up or do you ask why they punched you in the first place? Will all the tyrannical rule-by-decree orders across the United States be stricken from the books? Or will they just be allowed to do this again for any reason they choose?

Third, thanks to Senator Rand Paul, we are now all aware of Dr. Fauci’s role in funding gain-of-function research on viruses in China.

Will we be able to find out exactly why we are being forced to pay for the mad scientist research into how to create more deadly viruses? Can we opt-out of this funding?

Though Greg Abbott deserves much criticism for shutting Texas down, his re-opening decree effectively ended Covid tyranny across the country. We are thankful for that. Now we must resolve to never let this happen again.

 END

 

 

iv) Swamp commentaries/

 

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories./ of the day

After getting crushed over the weekend, crypto currencies soared on Monday due to another beneficial Elon Musk tweet, CoinDesk’s Consensus virtual crypto conference at which Ray Dalio promoted cryptos and Goldman initiated coverage of Coinbase with a buy rating and a price target of $306.

Musk Tweets He Supports Crypto in Battle Against Fiat Currencies
On Monday, the Tesla chief executive tweeted that he had spoken to bitcoin BTCUSD miners, and that the community has committed to publishing data on their renewable-energy usage…
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-22/musk-tweets-he-supports-crypto-in-battle-against-fiat-currencies

Dogecoin, bitcoin prices climb as Elon Musk solicits help to improve meme coin, talks sustainability with miners https://t.co/Fq04ffnQZO

Musk Jolts Bitcoin Higher With Push to Burnish Miners’ Image
Elon Musk continued to toy with the price of Bitcoin Monday, taking to Twitter to indicate support for what he says is an effort by miners to make their operations greener…
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-24/bitcoin-bounces-back-above-37-000-after-weekend-selloff

Dalio: “Cash is trash” now, he says. “You’ll experience more inflation.” – BBG

Ray Dalio: ‘I Have Some Bitcoin’
“Personally, I’d rather have bitcoin than a bond” in an inflationary scenario, Dalio said during an hour-long conversation with CoinDesk Chief Content Officer Michael J. Casey…
   “All of those financial assets are claims on real stuff, real goods and services,” Dalio said. “And when the pile becomes very big, and the incentives for not holding that are no longer there, you have a problem.”… The current situation now resembles 1971, Dalio warned. “As you look at the budgets, and you look ahead, we know we’re going to need a lot more money, a lot more debt,” he said.
    “You need to borrow money? You have to print that…. So, taxes go up and that produces a dynamic. Now I can keep going on about what happens in that dynamic. It may be capital controls. … I painfully learned in 1971 that it causes stocks to go up. It causes… gold, bitcoin, real estate, everything to go up, because it’s really going down in dollars. And that’s the part of the cycle we’re in.”…
   “One of the great things, I think, as a worry is the government having the capacity to control almost any of them, including bitcoin, or the digital currencies,” he said. “They know where they are, and they know what’s going on.”… https://finance.yahoo.com/finance/news/ray-dalio-bitcoin-132000059.html

American Banker (@AmerBanker): Fed should get real about its role in crypto’s volatility https://t.co/4GPGg56aLD

Die Welt’s @Schuldensuehner: Eligible firms parked $395bn at Fed at ZERO interest on Mon, highest level since Jun2017. Fed officials do not see reverse repo as sign of distress. Market participants say reverse repo interest is driven by excess cash seeking parking place in a money mkt of rock bottom returnshttps://t.co/CIslOHsdL5

Fed’s balance sheet could reach $9 trillion by end of 2022, NY Fed report projects https://t.co/h0DDYGjFVO

Meanwhile back at the ranch, China is aggressively moving to arrest inflation and speculation.

China crypto mining business hit by Beijing crackdown, bitcoin tumbles
“Crypto mining consumes a lot of energy, which runs counter to China’s carbon neutrality goals,” said Chen Jiahe, chief investment officer of Beijing-based family office Novem Arcae Technologies…
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/crypto-miners-halt-china-business-after-beijings-crackdown-bitcoin-dives-2021-05-24/

China Targets ‘Speculators and Hoarders’ to Stop Commodity Boom
‘Do not collude with each other,’ top metals producers told
    The government will show “zero tolerance” for monopoly behavior and hoarding, the National Development and Reform Commission said after leaders of top metals producers were called to a meeting in Beijing with multiple government departments on Sunday…
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-24/china-vows-zero-tolerance-for-commodities-market-violations

First Warning Sign in Global Commodity Boom Flashes in China
Wary of inflating asset bubbles, the People’s Bank of China has also been restricting the flow of money to the economy since last year, albeit gradually to avoid derailing growth. At the same time, funding for infrastructure projects has shown signs of slowing…
    The impact of China’s credit pullback could ripple far and wide, threatening the rally in global oil prices and even China’s crop markets. And while tighter money supply hasn’t stopped many metals hitting eye-popping levels in recent weeks, some, like copper, are already seeing consumers shying away from higher prices… “We’re still at an early phase of tightening in terms of money reaching projects,” said Tomas Gutierrez, an analyst at Kallanish Commodities Ltd. “Iron ore demand reacts with a lag of several months to tightening. Steel demand is still around record highs on the back of the economic recovery and ongoing investments, but is likely to pull back slightly by the end of the year.”…
https://www.yahoo.com/now/first-warning-sign-global-commodity-210000349.html

China Braces for $1.3 Trillion Maturity Wall as Defaults Surge
$1.3 trillion of domestic debt payable in the next 12 months.  That’s 30% more than what U.S. companies owe, 63% more than in all of Europe…
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-23/china-braces-for-1-3-trillion-maturity-wall-as-defaults-surge

@zerohedge: Unprecedented: China is a debt-fueled basket case but due to fear of Xi nobody speaks out of line. On Friday a central banker did, and called for a breach of the party line, urging stronger yuan to offset soaring prices. His article was deleted day later.  https://t.co/GrL4heN1zu

U.S. chip funding could result in seven to 10 new factories -officials http://reut.rs/34eXeP2
[Semiconductor stocks soared on the above story.]

The full-court, over-the-top promotion of cryptos on Monday induced traders to pour into their quasi- siblings, tech stocks and Fangs.  Despite all the fin media and huckster hoopla, the rally momentum on Monday peaked at the end of the first hour of trading.  ESMs and stocks then traded sideways until a rally began at 13:30 ET.  Alas, the rally was lame; so, stocks rolled over at 14:45 ET.  The decline accelerated during the final 30 minutes of trading.
@jasonrantz: Tucker Carlson: “…the government of Thailand contacted the CDC and Tony Fauci’s office to say that its intel service had picked up biological anomalies around the lab in Wuhan” on 11/19/2019—which is around the time that the Chinese researchers at the lab became very sickhttps://t.co/qx7j6wyShi

Today – Be alert for a Turnaround Tuesday to the downside after the usual early rally.  A confluence of bullish events and stories occurred on Monday that will not be repeated today.  Musk tweets will likely have a muted or transitory upside effect.

ESMs are +8.00 at 22:00 ET.  A robust opening rally would be a great time to execute a pump & dump.

Expected economic data: March FHFA House Price Index 1.3% m/m; March S&P CoreLogic 20-City house prices +1.33% m/m, +12.55% y/y; April New Home Sales 950k; May Conference Board Consumer Confidence 118.9; May Richmond Fed Mfg Index 18; Chicago Fed Prez Evans 7:40 ET, Richmond Fed Prez Barkin 8 ET, Fed VCEO for Supervision 10 ET before Senate Banking Com.

S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 4096; 100-day MA: 3969; 150-day MA: 3837; 200-day MA: 3727
DJIA 50-day MA: 33,688; 100-day MA: 32,433; 150-day MA: 31,362; 200-day MA: 30,513

S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames
Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 3110.46 triggers a sell signal
WeeklyTrender and MACD are positive – a close below 3969.00 triggers a sell signal
DailyTrender and MACD are negative – a close above 4228.88 triggers a buy signal
Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4165.82 triggers a sell signal

‘Saturday Night Live’ avoids any Biden impersonations four months into his presidency https://t.co/gbAMdhDA9s

How Navy Officer Jack Posobiec Became a Conservative Kingmaker
Despite relentless attacks from the liberal media and left-wing activist organizations, Posobiec has become one of the most powerful journalists in Washington…
https://elamerican.com/how-jack-posobiec-became-a-conservative-kingmaker/

100 people were shot last week (thru Saturday) in Chicago, 19 fatally.
https://twitter.com/w_h_thompson/status/1396665758394896385/photo/1

WGN’s @samjcharles: 11 killings in Chicago over the weekend, including three double murders.  Over the weekend, a man already out on bail was arrested on an illegal gun possession charge.  Last summer he was charged with shooting a 3-year-old girl in West Englewood.

The criminal justice system in Chicago and Cook County resembles the final days of Rome. 

END

 

I WILL SEE  YOU WEDNESDAY NIGHT

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