MAY 28/THE CROOKS FOR THE ENTIRE WEEK WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR RAIDS ON GOLD AND SILVER: GOLD UP $6.85 TO $1902.65//SILVER UP 8 CENTS TO $27.65//INITIAL GOLD STANDING FOR JUNE: 69.7 TONNES//SILVER A STRONG 11.11 MILLION OZ// USA MINT ANNOUNCEMENTS HUGE SHORTAGE OF WORLDWIDE SILVER///STRANGE: BLOOMBERG ANNOUNCES BIS TRADING OF BANK OF ENGLAND GOLD//CORONAVIRUS UPDATE/VACCINE UPDATES/ CHINESE ORIGIN OF COVID 19//USA ECONOMIC DAT: PCE DEFLATOR SKYROCKETS AND A SOLID INDICATOR OF INFLATION//CONSUMER SENTIMENT FALTERS/CALIFORNIA PORTS STILL JAMMING UP//INFLATION WATCH: RENTS SKYROCKET//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//READING MATERIAL FOR THE WEEKEND: ALASDAIR MACLEOD…

GOLD:$1902.65   UP $6.85   The quote is London spot price

Silver:$27.91  UP 8 CENTS   London spot price ( cash market)

your data.

 
 
 

Closing access prices:  London spot

i)Gold : $1903.40 LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

ii)SILVER:  $27.92//LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

first time that I can recall that the crooks were unsuccessful in raiding gold and silver for the entire options expiry cycle.  They are losing control

 

PLATINUM AND PALLADIUM PRICES BY GOLD-EAGLE (MORE ACCURATE)

 

 

PLATINUM  $1183.45  DOWN $2.83

PALLADIUM: 2821.86 UP $2.14  PER OZ.

 

 

James McShirley on the pricing of gold eagles/and silver eagle

James Mc late this afternoon… May 3

Coin premiums to spot widening- Silver Eagles look like around 50%+ to spot. Gold Eagles +$170 to spot. How long can they keep this derivatives charade going?

Jim McShirley

May 5: Jim McShirley:

Meanwhile the separation between physical and spot continues to increase. Gold Eagles are now showing +$180 or more to spot on several popular sites. Silver Eagles are +$13 and up to spot. If you ignore the ticker going by on cable news gold is nearly $2k in the real world, silver $40. That’s still a pittance, but nothing like MSM is presenting to the public.

may 17  Jim McShirley

Forgot to mention the Gold Eagle physical to spot widened another $5 today, now around +$185 or more. Spot has practically become like the GLD, which is little more than a heavily-discounted tracker to the real stuff. Gold coins are indeed MUCH closer to all-time highs than the Crimex price. It will be interesting to see if this keeps blowing out until spot prices are meaningless.

May 19: James McShirley

Coin premiums to spot continue to widen. Gold Eagles blew out another $20 and are now +$200 and up to spot. Despite the futures selloff Silver Eagles are holding steady around $40 and up. Physical buying is belying the Crimex racket. 

may 28 James McShirley

Gold Eagle premiums to spot have further widened to +$225 and up. The U.S. Mint has essentially declared force majeure with silver coin production due to “global shortages.” Never mind LEGALLY the U.S. Mint should be in a bidding war to the moon if necessary to procure adequate silver supplies. That’s what is happening with lumber, and should be happening with silver as well. The mandatory lockdowns (the gold/silver suppression variety, not virus) are reaching extreme pressures. The days of both metals spinning in place all day are drawing to a close. The sound and fury of hyperinflation is becoming readily apparent to even the people who are drinking the MSM Kool- Aid. MOPE is lost, and the “inflation expectations” that the Fed SO cares about is soaring. It’s prime time, gold and silver time. Let ‘er rip.

James Mc

Editorial of The New York Sun | February 1, 2021

end

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COMEX DATA

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

receiving today  3080/12699

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: JUNE 2021 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,895.700000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 05/27/2021 DELIVERY DATE: 06/01/2021
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
072 H GOLDMAN 640 3439
092 C DEUTSCHE BANK 36
099 H DB AG 1466
132 C SG AMERICAS 2
323 C HSBC 1834
323 H HSBC 865
332 H STANDARD CHARTE 509
355 C CREDIT SUISSE 9
363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 800
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 438
523 H INTERACTIVE BRO 234
555 H BNP PARIBAS SEC 907
624 C BOFA SECURITIES 22
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 647
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 96 29
657 H MORGAN STANLEY 58
661 C JP MORGAN 1749 3080
661 H JP MORGAN 4000
685 C RJ OBRIEN 23 1
686 C STONEX FINANCIA 75
690 C ABN AMRO 127
709 C BARCLAYS 875
709 H BARCLAYS 2955
732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 23
737 C ADVANTAGE 86
800 C MAREX SPEC 58
880 C CITIGROUP 71
905 C ADM 244
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 12,699 12,699
MONTH TO DATE: 12,699

ISSUED: 1749

Goldman Sachs:  stopped: 3439

 
 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  MAY. CONTRACT: 12,699 NOTICE(S) FOR 1,269,900 OZ  (39.499 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  12699 NOTICES FOR 1269,900 OZ  (5.577 tonnes) 

SILVER//MAY CONTRACT

2031 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 10,155,000  OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month  :  for 10,155,000  oz

 

BITCOIN MORNING QUOTE  $35,784  DOWN 3034  DOLLARS 

 

BITCOIN AFTERNOON QUOTE.:$35,823 DOWN 2995 DOLLARS

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

GLD AND SLV INVENTORIES:

GLD AND SLV INVENTORIES:

Gold

WITH GOLD UP $6.85 AND NO PHYSICAL TO BE FOUND ANYWHERE:

WITH ALL REFINER CLOSED//MEXICO ORDERING ALL MINES SHUT:   WHERE ARE THEY GETTING THE “PHYSICAL?STRANGE:  NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD

STRANGE!!

A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD// A WITHDRAWAL OF .87 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/

WITH RESPECT TO GLD WITHDRAWALS:  (OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS)

GOLD IS “RETURNED” TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHO ARE CALLING IN THEIR LEASES: THE GOLD NEVER LEAVES THE B OF ENGLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BANK IS PROTECTING ITSELF IN CASE OF COMMERCIAL FAILURE

THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD!!

GLD: 1,043.21 TONNES OF GOLD//

Silver

AND WITH NO SILVER AROUND  TODAY: WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS

NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV

WITH REGARD TO SILVER WITHDRAWALS FROM THE SLV:

THE SILVER WITHDRAWALS ARE ACTUALLY “RETURNED” TO JPM, AS JPMORGAN CALLS IN ITS LEASES WITH THE SLV FUND.  (THE STORY IS THE SAME AS THE BANK OF ENGLAND’S GOLD). THE SILVER NEVER LEAVES JPMORGAN’S VAULTS. THEY ARE CALLING IN THEIR LEASES FOR FEAR OF SOLVENCY ISSUES.

INVENTORY RESTS AT:

576.673  MILLION OZ./SLV

xxxxx

GLD closing price//NYSE 178.30 UP $0.59 OR  0.33%

XXXXXXXXXXXXX

SLV closing price NYSE 25.91 UP $0.06 OR 0.23%

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

 
 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

THE COMEX OI IN SILVER ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 1979 CONTRACTS FROM 180,351 UP TO 182,330, AND CLOSER TO  THE NEW RECORD OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020. THE STRONG GAIN IN OI OCCURRED WITH OUR TINY $0.03 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX  ON THURSDAY. IT SEEMS THAT THE GAIN IN COMEX OI IS PRIMARILY DUE TO SOME BANKER AND ALGO  SHORT COVERING AS OUR BANKER FRIENDS ARE GETTING QUITE SCARED OF BASEL III COMING JUNE 28/2021 !//STRONG REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//.. COUPLED AGAINST A SMALL EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. WE ALSO  HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION 

I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL:

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN SILVER TODAY:   4 CONTRACTS.

WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A SMALL  NUMBER OF  COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 330,, AS WE HAD THE FOLLOWING ISSUANCE:, JUNE: 0 JULY 290 AND SEPT 40 ZERO ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE 330 CONTRACTS. THE BANKERS ARE NOW BEING BITTEN BY THOSE SERIAL FORWARDS (EFP’S CIRCULATING IN LONDON) AS THEY ARE NOW BEING EXERCISED AND COMING BACK TO NEW YORK FOR REDEMPTION OF METAL.  THE COST TO SERVICE THESE SERIAL FORWARDS IS HIGH TO OUR BANKERS  BUT THEY HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO ISSUE A FEW OF THEM! SILVER IS IN BACKWARDATION AND AS SUCH THE DANGER TO OUR BANKERS IS LONDONERS WILL PURCHASE CHEAPER FUTURES METAL OVER HERE AND THEN TAKE DELIVERY.

HISTORY OF SILVER OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR THE PAST 33 MONTHS.

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

7.32     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

2.630     MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOV.

20.970   MILLION OZ  FINAL STANDING IN DEC

2020

5.075     MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JAN

1.480    MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN FEB

23.005  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAR 

4.660  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR APRIL

45.220 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAY***(5THHIGHEST RECORDED STANDING FOR SILVER)

2.205  MILLION OF FINAL STANDING FOR JUNE

86.470  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JULY…RECORD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED

6.475 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN AUGUST

55.400 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN SEPT (3RD HIGHEST RECORDED STANDING)

8.900 MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT.

3.950 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN NOV.

46.685 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR DEC. (4TH HIGHEST RECORDED STANDING)

2021

60 MILLION FINAL STANDING FOR JAN 2021

12.020  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR FEB 2021

58.425 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MARCH 2021//2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED

14.935 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR APRIL

36.365 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAY 

11.110 MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING FOR JUNE

 

THURSDAY, AGAIN OUR CROOKS USED COPIOUS PAPER TRYING TO LIQUIDATE SILVER’S PRICE …AND THEY WERE
UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN ,(IT ROSE BY $0.03).OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS WERE ALSO UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE ANY SILVER LONGS AS  WE HAD A STRONG GAIN OF 2313 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.  THE GAIN WAS DUE TO i) SOME BANKER/ALGO SHORT COVERING// WE ALSO HAD  ii) STRONG REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//.    iii)  A SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) A VERY STRONG INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 11.110 MILLION OZ  v) STRONG COMEX OI GAIN /
.
YOU CAN BET THE FARM THAT OUR BANKERS  ARE DESPERATE TO LIQUIDATE THEIR HUGE SHORT POSITIONS IN SILVER..
 
 
 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

 

MAY

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY /FOR MONTH OF A MAY:

27,566 CONTRACTS (FOR 19 TRADING DAY(S) TOTAL 27,566 CONTRACTS) OR 137.83 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1452 CONTRACTS OR 7.262 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF MAY: 137.83  MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON

JAN EFP ACCUMULATION FINAL:  113.735 MILLION OZ

FEB EFP ACCUMULATION FINAL:   208.18 MILLION OZ (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

MAR EFP ACCUMULATION SO FAR: : 103.450 MILLION OZ  (DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//FEARS OF EFP CONTRACTS BEING EXERCISED FOR METAL)

APRIL: 84.730 MILLION OZ  (SILVER IS NOW IN SEVERE BACKWARDATION AND THUS DRAMATICALLY FEWER ISSUANCE OF EFP’S)

MAY: 137.83 MILLION OZ

 

JUNE:  XXX MILLION OZ//

 

RESULT: WE HAD A STRONG INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1979, DESPITE  OUR TINY $0.03 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ///THURSDAY .…THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A SMALL SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 330 CONTRACTS WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS.

TODAY WE HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 2309 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES (WITH OUR $0.03 GAIN IN PRICE)//THE DOMINANT FEATURE TODAY// SOME BANKER SHORTCOVERING/  AND A VERY STRONG INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JUNE. (11.110 MILLION OZ) 

 

THE TALLY//EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

i.e  330  OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s)TOGETHER WITH A STRONG SIZED INCREASE OF 1793 OI COMEX CONTRACTS.AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND HAPPENED WITH OUR $0.03 GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER/AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $27.83//THURSDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY. 

WE HAD 2031 NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR 10,155,000 OZ

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018. AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.70//TODAY’S RECORD OF 244,705 WAS SET WITH A PRICE OF: 18.91 (FEB 25/2020)

AND YET, WITH THE SILVER IN BACKWARDATION (INDICATING SCARCITY), WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 
 
 
 

GOLD

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED SIZED 1590 CONTRACTS TO 506,340 ,,AND CLOSER TO OUR NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY:   1590 CONTRACTS.

THE SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI CAME DESPITE OUR FALL IN PRICE  OF $5.35///COMEX GOLD TRADING//THURSDAY.AS IN SILVER WE MUST HAVE HAD HUGE BANKER/ALGO SHORT COVERING ACCOMPANYING OUR GOOD SIZED EXCHANGE FOR  PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. WE ALSO HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AS, WE HAD A STRONG GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 5696 CONTRACTS.   WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR JUNE AT 69.73 TONNES 

 

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR FALL IN PRICE OF $5.35 WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD A VOLUME OF 0    4 -GC CONTRACTS//OPEN INTEREST  0//

WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 5696 OI CONTRACTS (17.71 TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

 

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A GOOD SIZED 5837 CONTRACTS:

CONTRACT  AND JUNE:  0; AUGUST: 5837  ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO//TOTAL: 5837 The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 506,340. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EXCHANGE DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 5696 CONTRACTS141 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 5837 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 5696 CONTRACTS OF 17.71 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A GOOD SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (5837) ACCOMPANYING THE SMALL SIZED loss IN COMEX OI (141 OI): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES:  7286CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING/BIS MANIPULATION! AS OUR BANKERS ARE RUNNING FROM DODGE AND CONSIDERABLE ALGO SHORT COVERING ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR JUNE AT 69.730 TONNES/ 3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION,  /// ;4) SMALL COMEX OI GAIN AND 5) GOOD ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL AND ….ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR LOSS IN GOLD PRICE TRADING THURSDAY//$5.35!!.

SPREADING OPERATIONS/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD  (WE SWITCH OVER TO GOLD ON MAY  1)

FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS:

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED IN GOLD  AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF JUNE.

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

 
 

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

.

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO GOLD AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX SILVER OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL. HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY FOR SILVER:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF MAY. BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN GOLD WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (MAY), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

 
 
 
 
 
 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2021 INCLUDING TODAY

MAY

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF MAY : 80,424, CONTRACTS OR 8,042,400 oz OR 250.15 TONNES (19 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 4232 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 19 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 250.15 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2020, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 250.15/3550 x 100% TONNES =7.04% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO DATE:
 
JANUARY: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)
 
FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..
 
 
MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN///IT SURPASSED JANUARY!!)

 

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 1979 CONTRACTS FROM 180,351 UP TO 182,334 AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 3/4 YEARS AGO.  

 

EFP ISSUANCE 330 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 JUNE: 0, JULY 330: ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  330 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI GAIN OF 1979 CONTRACTSAND ADD TO THE 330 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S, WE OBTAIN A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 2309 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 7.194 MILLION  OZ, OCCURRED WITH OUR $0.03 GAIN IN PRICE///

 

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL..THE EVIDENCE IS CLEAR: HUGE AMOUNTS OF PHYSICAL STANDING FOR BOTH  SILVER AND GOLD .

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Gold

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge + OTHER COMMENTARIES

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)FRIDAY MORNING/ THURSDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 8.07 PTS OR 0.22%   //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 11.21 PTS OR 0.04%      /The Nikkei closed UP 600.40 pts or 2.10%  //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 1.09%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP AT 6.3759 /Oil DOWN TO 67.28 dollars per barrel for WTI and 69.50 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MIXED   //  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.3759. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.3759   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING  WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

 
 
 
 
 
3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

NORTH KOREA//USA/OUTLINE

END

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3 C CHINA

CHINA VS USA// vs EUROPE

 

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

OUTLINE
 

COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A TINY SIZED 141 CONTRACTS TO 506,340MOVING FURTHER FROM  THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020).  AND THIS TINY COMEX DECREASE OCCURRED DESPITE OUR LOSS OF $5.35 IN GOLD PRICING THURSDAY’S COMEX TRADING…WE ALSO HAD A GOOD EFP ISSUANCE (5837 CONTRACTS). …AS THEY WERE PAID HANDSOMELY  NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AND SETTLE FOR CASH.

 

WE NORMALLY HAVE WITNESSED  EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS. IT SEEMS THAT ARE BANKERS FRIENDS ARE EXERCISING EFP’S FROM LONDON AND NOW THEY ARE LOATHE TO ISSUE NEW ONES.  

 

(SEE BELOW)

WE  HAD 0    4 -GC VOLUME//open interest REMAINS AT   0

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW MOVING TO THE VERY ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A GOOD SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 5837 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  ;: , JUNE:  0 & JULY 0 & AUGUST: 5837 AND THEN DECEMBER:  0 CONTRACTS & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 5837  CONTRACTS .WITH GOLD STILL IN BACKWARDATION

 

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION,  EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A STRONG SIZED  5696  TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 5837 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE LOST A SMALL SIZED COMEX OI OF 141 CONTRACTS.WE HAVE A HUGE AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR JUNE   (69.73) WHICH FOLLOWED MAY (5.77 TONNES FOLLOWING  (95.331 TONNES) IN APRIL, WHICH FOLLOWED MARCH:  (30.205 TONNES) WHICH FOLLOWED FEB (113.424 TONNES)  WHICH FOLLOWED OUR STRONG LEVEL JAN 2021 GOLD . ((6.500 TONNES).  

THE BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT FELL $5.35)., BUT  WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING ANY LONGS AS WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 5,696 CONTRACTS.  THE TOTAL GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES REGISTERED 17.712 TONNES,ACCOMPANYING OUR HUGE GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR JUNE (69.73 TONNES)..I  STRONGLY BELIEVE THAT OUR BANKER FRIENDS ARE GETTING QUITE NERVOUS.  THE HUGE GAIN IN COMEX OI IS DUE TO BANKER SHORT COVERING IN A BIG WAY.  THEY ARE LOOKING OVER THEIR SHOULDERS AND WITNESSING MASSIVE SILVER/GOLD SHORTAGES THAT CANNOT BE COVERED. THEY ARE TRYING TO FLEE IN HASTE “FROM DODGE”.

THE BIS REMOVED 1590 CONTRACTS FROM COMEX TRADES. THESE WERE REMOVED AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT. 

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES :: 5696 CONTRACTS OR  569,600 OZ OR  17.71  TONNES

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT COMMODITY FUTURES OPEN INTEREST SHOULD APPROXIMATE 3% OF TOTAL PRODUCTION.  IN GOLD THE WORLD PRODUCES AROUND 3500 TONNES PER YEAR BUT ONLY 2200 TONNES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE WEST (THUS EXCLUDING RUSSIA, CHINA ETC..WHO KEEP 100% OF THEIR PRODUCT.
 
THUS IN GOLD WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:  506,340 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS X 100 OZ PER CONTRACT = 50.63 MILLION OZ/32,150 OZ PER TONNE =  1574 TONNES

 

THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST REPRESENTS 1574/2200 OR 71.54% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF GOLD.

 
 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX GOLD TODAY:194,776 contracts// volume /poor ////volumes used in raid today   //

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  257,354 contracts// –fair 

// //most of our traders have left for London

 

MAY 28 /2021

 
INITIAL STANDINGS FOR JUNE COMEX GOLD
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
 
 
nil OZ
Brinks
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz  
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz
nil OZ
 
HSBC
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
No of oz served (contracts) today
12,699  notice(s)
 
1,26900 OZ
(39.499 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)
9720 contracts
(972,000 oz)
 
30.233 TONNES
 
 
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
12,699 notices
1,269,900 OZ
39.499 TONNES
 
 
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz
 

We had 0 deposit into the dealer

 
 
 
total deposit:  nil oz    
 
 
 

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had 0 deposit into the customer account
 
 
 
TOTAL CUSTOMER DEPOSITS: nil  oz
 
 
 
 
 
 
We had 0 withdrawals….
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
total withdrawals nil oz
 
a net: .008 tonnes leaves the comex
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

We had  0  kilobar transactions (0 out of 0 transactions)

ADJUSTMENTS  0//

 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 

The front month of JUNE registered a total of 22,419 CONTRACTS for a LOSS of 16,504 contracts.

Thus by definition, the initial amount of gold standing for delivery in this very important active month of June is as follows;

22,419 notices filed x 100 oz per notice  =  2,241,900  oz or 69.73 tonnes

 
 
 
 
 
JULY GAINED 168 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 2392.
 
AUGUST GAINED A HUGE 13,894 CONTRACTS UP TO 400,350

We had 12,699 notice(s) filed today for 1,269,900  oz

FOR THE JUNE 2021 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and  1749 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 12,699  contract(s) of which 0  notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 1749 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 3439 notices received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JUNE /2021. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (12,699) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  (JUNE:  22,419 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today 12,699 x 100 oz per contract equals 2,241,900 OZ OR 69.73 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this active month of JUNE

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JUNE contract month:

No of notices filed so far (12,699) x 100 oz+  22,419)  OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (12699} x 100 oz} which equals 2,241,900 oz standing OR 69.73 TONNES in this  active delivery month of MAY.

 

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

447,898.216, oz NOW PLEDGED  march 5/2021/HSBC  13.93 TONNES

202,692.098 PLEDGED  MANFRA 6.30 TONNES

276,177.249, oz  JPM  8.59 TONNES

1,166,051.732 oz pledged June 12/2020 Brinks/36.26 TONNES

80,189,799, oz Pledged August 21/regular account 2.49 tonnes JPMORGAN

6,308.08 oz International Delaware:  .196 tonnes

192.906 oz Malca

total pledged gold:  2,172,929.094 oz                                     67.58 tonnes

 

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES…. WE HAVE 503.01 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS i.e. 69.73 tonnes

CALCULATION OF REGISTERED THAT CAN BE SETTLED UPON:

total registered or dealer  18,344,790.149 oz or 570.60 tonnes
 
 
total weight of pledged:  2,172,929.094 oz or 67.58 tonnes
 
thus:
 
registered gold that can be used to settle upon: 16,171,861.0 (503,01 tonnes) 
 
 
 
 
true registered gold  (total registered – pledged tonnes  16,171,861.0 (503.01 tonnes)
 
total eligible gold: 16,224,214.233 oz   (504.64 tonnes)
 
 
total registered, pledged  and eligible (customer) gold 34,569,004.382 oz or 1,075.24 tonnes (INCLUDES 4 GC GOLD)
 
 

total 4 GC gold:   126.34 tonnes

total gold net of 4 GC:  948.90 tonnes

end

I have compiled  data with respect to registered (or dealer) gold taken on first day notice for each of the past 24 months

The data begins on first day notice for the May month taken on the last day of July 2018. and it continues to present day.

I then took, how many deliveries were recorded by the CME for each and every month.  I also included for reference the price of gold on first day notice.

The first graph is a logarithmic  graph and the second graph, linear.

You can see the huge explosion of registered gold at the comex along with deliveries.

 
 
THE DATA AND GRAPHS:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
END

 

 
 
MAY28/2021
 
 

 

And now for the wild silver comex results

INITIAL STANDING FOR SILVER//June

June. SILVER COMEX CONTRACT MONTH//INITIAL STANDING

Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
764,821.900 oz
 
 
 
CNT
Brinks
Delaware
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
290,071.900 oz
Manfra
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
987,149.284 oz
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
whatever enters the comex faults
leaves
 
huge amounts will leave on Tuesday
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
No of oz served today (contracts)
2031
 
CONTRACT(S)
(10,155,000 OZ)
 
No of oz to be served (notices)
191 contracts
 (955,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  2031 contracts

 

10,155,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
 
We had 1 deposit into the dealer 
i) Into the dealer Manfra:  290,071.900  oz

total dealer deposits:   290,071.900        oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had  3 deposit into customer account (ELIGIBLE ACCOUNT)

i) Into CNT:  29,318.700 oz
ii) Into Delaware:  4982.634
iii) Into Malca:  952,842.95
 
 
 
 
 
 

JPMorgan now has 187.007 million oz of  total silver inventory or 53.04% of all official comex silver. (187.007 million/353.072 million

total customer deposits today 987,149.284   oz

we had 3 withdrawals

i) out of CNT: 728,046.540 oz

 

ii)  Out of Brinks: 35,737.010  oz  

ii)Out of Delaware: 1038.400 oz

 
 
 
 
 

total withdrawals  764,821.900   oz

 
 

adjustments// 3 dealer to customer  as promised such adjustments (settlements)

Brinks:  1,132,449.440 oz

and

CNT:  1003,511.336 oz

and

Manfra:  126,029.627 oz

 
 
 
 

Total dealer(registered) silver: 110.750 million oz

total registered and eligible silver:  353.072 million oz

a net 0.513 million oz ENTERS the comex silver vaults.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 
 
 
JUNE ROSE IN CONTRACTS BY 145 CONTRACTS UP TO 2222.
 
THUS BY DEFINITION, THE INITIAL AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING IN THIS NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE IS AS FOLLOWS:
 
2222 NOTICES X 5000 OZ PER NOTICE = 11,110,000  OZ
 
 
 

July GAINED 569 contracts UP to 143,276 contracts

AUGUST GAINED 1079 CONTRACTS UP TO 18,390

 
No of notices filed today:  2031 CONTRACTS for 10,155,000 oz
 

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JUNE. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at  2031 x 5,000 oz = 10,155,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JUNE (2222) and the number of notices served upon today 2031 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the JUNE standings for silver for the JUNE/2021 contract month: 2031 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of JUNE (2222)  – number of notices served upon today (2031) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the Jan contract month .equals 11,110,000 oz. ..VERY STRONG FOR A NON ACTIVE JUNE MONTH. 

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME  67,850 CONTRACTS // volume fair// 

 

FOR YESTERDAY 62,318  ,CONFIRMED VOLUME/ fair//

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV  FALLS TO -0.21% (MAY 28/2021)

SILVER FUND POSITIVE TO NAV

No of unit of PSLV: 402,810,481

No of oz of physical silver held; MAY 24/2021  144,515.694 OZ

No. of oz of physical silver held:  Sept 20/20: 85,907.361

No of oz pf physical silver held: Dec 21/2019:  65,073.570 oz

During the past 8 months Sprott has added: 58,608.30 Oz 

So far this year: 53.8 million oz

2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -0.21% nav   (MAY 28

/2021 )

 

3. SPROTT CEF .A   FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA)

NAV $20.29 TRADING $20.11//NEGATIVE 0.89

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/(this vehicle is a fraud as there is no gold behind them!)

MAY 28/WITH GOLD UP $6.85 TODAY:A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/; A WITHDRAWAL OF .87 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1043.21 TONNES

MAY 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.35 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1044.08 TONNES

MAY 26/WITH GOLD UP $4.45 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.04 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1044.08 TONNES

MAY 25/WITH GOLD UP $13.25 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A DEPOSIT OF 2.30 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY REST AT 1046.12 TONNES.

MAY 24/WITH GOLD UP $8.25 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY A THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1042.92 TONNES

MAY 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.20 TODAY: TWO HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 5.82 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD AT 3 PM AND ANOTHER 5.83 TONNES ADDED AT 5.20 PM/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1042.92. TONNES

MAY 20/WITH GOLD UP 20 CENTS TODAY/A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.66 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1031.27 TONNES

MAY 19/WITH GOLD UP $13.35 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD IVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1035.93 TONNES

MAY 18/WITH GOLD UP $.75 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A MASSIVE 7.57 TONNES OF GOLD ADDED TO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1035.93 TONNES

MAY 17  WITH GOLD UP $29.95 TODAY/// .. NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD…INVENTORY RESTS AT 1028.36 TONNES

MAY 14  WITH GOLD UP $13.05… A BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD.//A DEPOSIT OF 3.21 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1028.36 TONNES

MAY 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.20 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1025.15 TONNES

MAY 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.60 TODAY;  NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1025.15 TONNES

MAY 10/WITH GOLD UP $7.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/ A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.82 TONNES FROM THE GLD./INVENTORY RESTS AT 1025.15 TONNES.

MAY 7/WITH GOLD UP 20,70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1019.33 TONNES

MAY 6/WITH GOLD UP $15.10 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.13 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1019.33 TONNES 

MAY 5/WITH GOLD UP $7.45 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1018.20

MAY 4/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.80 TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.16 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1018.20 TONNES.

MAY 3/WITH GOLD UP $23.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REST AT 1017.04 TONNES./

APRIL 30/WITH GOLD UP $0.20 TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.67 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1017.04 TONNES.

APRIL 29//WITH GOLD DOWN $5.70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1021.70 TONNES.

APRIL 28/WITHGOLD DOWN $4.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1021.70 TONNES.

APRIL 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.60 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1021.70 TONNES.

APRIL 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.80 TODAY;NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1021.70 TONNES

APRIL 23/WITH GOLD UP $3.40 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1021.70 TONNES

APRIL 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.30 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1021.70 TONNES

APRIL 21/WITH GOLD UP $14.41 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESSTS AT 1021.70 TONNES

APRIL 20/WITH GOLD UP $8.25 TODAY:A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.04 PAPER TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1021.70 TONNES

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Inventory rests tonight at:

 

MAY 28 / GLD INVENTORY 1043.21 tonnes

LAST;  1066 TRADING DAYS:   +118341 TONNES HAVE BEEN ADDED THE GLD

LAST 965 TRADING DAYS// +  292863 TONNES  HAVE NOW  BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY

end

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them!)

MAY 28/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 576.673 MILLION OZ/

MAY 27/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV..INVENTORY RESTS AT 576.673 MILLION OZ.

MAY 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 576.673 MILLION OZ/

MAY 25/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.855 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 576.673 MILLION OZ/

MAY 24/WITH SILVER UP 25 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.855 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 574.818 MILLION OZ//

MAY 21.WITH SILVER DOWN 51 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.299 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 572.963 MILLION OZ/

MAY 20/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 571.664 MILLION OZ//

MAY 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 32 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 571.664 MILLION OZ/

MAY 18/WITH SILVER UP 09 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 7.884 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 571.664 MILLION OZ..

MAY 17 WITH SILVER UP 88 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//..INVENTORY RESTS AT 565.820 MILLION OZ

MAY 14 WITH SILVER UP 28 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE GAIN OF 1.949 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV….INVENTORY RESTS AT 565.820 MILLION OZ

MAY 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 39 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.67 MILLION OZ /INVENTORY RESTS AT 563.871 MILLION OZ//

MAY  11/WITH SILVER UP 17 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.206 MILLION OZ DESPITE THE PRICE RISE//INVENTORY RESTS AT 565.541 MILLION OZ//

MAY 10.WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.81 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 566.747 MILLION OZ//

MAY 7/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: NO  CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 566.577 MILLION OZ

MAY 6/WITH SILVER UP 90 CENTS TODAY: TWO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//:1. A WITHDRAWAL OF  FROM THE SLV RECORDED AT 2 PM AND THEN 2. A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.31 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV RECORDED AT 5;20 PM.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 568.577 MILLION OZ//

MAY 5/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 567.481 MILLION OZ//

MAY 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 40 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 567.481 MILLION OZ//

MAY 3/WITH SILVER UP 99 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 567.481 MILLION OZ

APRIL 30//WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS TODAY; No CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 567.481 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 567.481 MILLION OZ..

APRIL 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 31 CENTS TODAY:: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.206 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 567.481 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 27./WITH SILVER UP 20 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 568.687 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 26/  WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.260 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 568.687

APRIL 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A DEPOSIT OF 278,000 OZ INTO THE SLV.///INVENTORY RESTS AT 569.847 MLLION OZ/

APRIL 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.619 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY REST AT 569.569 MILLION OZ..

APRIL 21/WITH SILVER UP 72 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 573.188 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 20/WITH SILVER UP 1 CENT TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIST OF 1.114 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 573.188 MILLION OZ.

XXXXXXXXXXXXXX

SLV INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT

MAY 28/2021
576.673 MILLION OZ

 
 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i)Peter Schiff

Peter Schiff: Inflation Crashes The Party

 
FRIDAY, MAY 28, 2021 – 03:40 PM

Authored by Peter Schiff via SchiffGold.com,

It’s dawning on many investors that our post-Covid financial problems may not be as easily solved as Washington claims…

The latest clue that trouble is brewing has come from the sudden and dramatic arrival of inflation. On May 12, it was revealed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) had risen 4.2% year-over-year, the fastest pace since 2008.

Some tried to downplay concern by pointing out that the gains resulted from the “base effect” of comparing current prices with the artificially depressed “Covid lockdown” prices of March and April of last year. But that ignores the more alarming trend of near-term price acceleration.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, in every month this year, the month-over-month change in prices has been greater than the change in the previous month.

In April prices jumped .8% from March, versus an expected gain of just .2%. Clearly, if this trend continues, or even fails to dramatically reverse, we could be looking at inflation well north of 5 or 6 percent for the calendar year. That would create a big problem.

Despite Federal Reserve officials’ recent assurances that the inflation problem is “transitory,” many investors are concluding that the central bank will have to deal with this problem by tightening monetary policy far sooner than had been expected. This would make sense if the Fed cared about restraining inflation or, more importantly, had the power to do anything to stop it. In truth, we are sailing into these waters with little ability to alter speed or course, and we will be wholly at the mercy of the waves we have spent a generation creating.

Since the era of central bank activism kicked into high gear in 2008, with the quantitative easing programs created in the wake of the Financial Crisis, the U.S. economy has largely avoided the spike in consumer prices that would typically result from monetary stimulus. It is my belief that the injection of trillions of new dollars into the economy merely offset the downward trajectory of prices that should have occurred during a severe recession. But more significantly, the money the Fed created at the time flowed more directly into assets rather than consumer goods.

Interest rate suppression, which is the mechanism of quantitative easing, stimulates the economy through the financial system. Low interest rates encourage more borrowing and have the effect of pushing up asset prices, particularly for stocks, bonds, and real estate. That explains why the era of QE was particularly good for those people who owned lots of those assets (the rich). Lowering the cost of capital also helped businesses hire and expand, thereby increasing the supply of goods and services, keeping consumer price inflation in check. More importantly, a strengthening dollar from 2011-2020 helped keep import prices low and helped sustain rising trade deficits. This allowed us to “export” our inflation to our trading partners as the dollars printed by the Fed flowed out, while real goods flowed in. However, many of the dollars earned by our trading partners were recycled into our financial markets, namely into large-cap tech stocks, adding fuel to the growing asset bubble.

But the stimulus we have seen in the post-Covid world works on a very different level. Although the Fed is currently engaging in a quantitative easing program that is almost 50% larger than it was at its peak a decade ago ($120 billion per month in bond buying now vs. $85 billion then), the real bulk of the Fed’s efforts now involve underwriting the Government’s massive direct stimulus program, which has totaled more than $4 trillion in direct payments to businesses and individuals since March of 2020. According to the CBO, in 2021 more than 40% of the $5.8 trillion expected to be spent by the Federal Government will be financed by debt issuance rather than taxation. The bulk of that debt is financed by Fed money creation. (These figures do not include the $2 trillion in unpaid for infrastructure spending that is currently working its way through Congress.)

Throughout much of the past decade, mainstream economists urged that stimulus effort needed to pivot from the “monetary stimulus” of quantitative easing to the “fiscal stimulus” of government deficit spending. Now we see that since deficit spending is simply financed by monetary expansion, the two are roughly one in the same. But each effects the economy in slightly different ways.

This current stimulus of direct payments to consumers, businesses, and governments, results in spending which creates demand for goods and services. The problem is that this demand is occurring at a time when the supply of goods and services is being artificially suppressed. Through a variety of enhanced unemployment benefits, child-care tax credits, direct stimulus payments, and increased welfare benefits, the government has created conditions where millions of low-income workers make the rational choice to stay home. Recent calculations by Bank of America estimate that workers who earned $32,000 annually before the pandemic could receive more money on unemployment than they would from actual work.

Under these pressures, it should come as no surprise that the April jobs report showed only 266,000 new jobs created when almost one million were expected. Employers were looking to hire, but far fewer people were willing to work. This explains why the labor force is still eight million jobs smaller than it was before the pandemic, even as the economy has largely reopened.

So, we find ourselves in a situation in which the government is simultaneously increasing demand and reducing supply. This is the classic recipe for consumer price increases, and it is showing up in force. The bad news is that nothing on the horizon suggests that government policy will change to address the crisis. History shows that once consumer price increases take hold the cycle becomes very slow to change and hard to break. The experience we had in the last era of catastrophic inflation provides a harrowing example.

The average CPI increase from 1960-1965 was just 1.3%. But in 1966, because of the major increases in deficit spending resulting from the Vietnam War and LBJ’s Great Society, the CPI jumped to 2.9%. It did not fall below 2% again for any calendar year until 1986, a cycle of 20 years. During that period, the CPI (despite continual methodological adjustments which sought to minimize the results) averaged 6.4%. This meant that by 1987 prices had risen by a factor of more than 3.5 times from the base in 1965, causing the dollar to lose 73% of its value over that time.

But it is important to appreciate the extraordinary efforts it took to break the cycle. During the height of the crisis, which lasted from 1973 to 1982, and began after President Nixon ended the U.S. dollar’s convertibility to gold in 1971, the CPI averaged 9.0%. It peaked at a staggering 13.5% in 1980. Two things were needed to reverse the trend.

The most obvious factor was the Fed’s willingness to raise interest rates far above the level of inflation. The very high rates slowed the velocity of money, discouraged borrowing and consumption, encouraged savings, and restored confidence in the dollar. The tough medicine was delivered by Fed Chairman Paul Volcker who ignored the howls of protest from economists and raised the Fed Funds rate to an astounding 20% in 1981. And unlike prior Fed Chairmen, Volker did not relent from the high rates as soon as the CPI dipped. He kept them high until he knew the job was done. The Recession of 1980-1982, at the time the worst downturn since the Great Depression, was the price of the policy. But in the end, it paid off.

The other factor in breaking the back of inflation was the pro-market, lower marginal income tax rates, and anti-regulatory policies of the Reagan administration. The free trade boom over the next 40 years also helped keep price increases in check by tapping the US economy into the price-cutting efficiency of the emerging markets.

But as we kick off the newest chapter of America’s dance with inflation, can anyone expect the type of serious monetary and fiscal responses that were required 40 years ago to be used, or even considered, again?

In 1980, when Volker moved boldly to contain inflation, U.S. Federal Debt as a percentage of GDP stood at 31%, a generational low. As of December 2020, those levels are more than 4 times that at 129%. More importantly, back in 1980, the average maturity on the national debt was close to thirty years. The current average maturity is just over five years.

That means higher rates don’t just impact new deficits, but the entire accumulated national debt as low-yielding debt matures and must be refinanced at much higher rates. While the Congressional Budget Office now predicts that debt to GDP will hit 195% by 2050, I expect that level to be hit much sooner. Similarly, corporate, and personal debt levels in 1980 were a fraction of where they are today. This means that the cost of raising interest rates now will be far higher than it was in 1980.

Higher rates would also severely impact the stock market. We have seen time and again over the past decade just how sensitive stock prices can be to higher interest rates, which raise the cost of capital and cut into share buybacks and dividends. But in comparison to the overall economy, the stock market is significantly larger now than it was in 1980. As of May 2021, the market capitalization of the Wilshire 5000, the broadest U.S. stock index, was 227% of the size of U.S. GDP. In 1980 that level stood at just about 40%. This means that a bear market in stocks would hit the broader economy much harder than it did in the early 1980s.

The real estate market likely would be hit even harder than stocks, where homes are bought based on monthly payments, not price. Those payments are in large part a result of record-low mortgage rates. As a result, home prices are now at record highs. A surge in mortgage rates would cause housing prices to drop, setting up default levels that might be reminiscent of 2007 and 2008. This will create losses for government-guaranteed mortgage lenders, which will require bailouts with more money printed by the Fed.

But suppose the Fed really was willing to bite the bullet and step out in front of inflation no matter the cost. Could it deliver? Bear in mind that the last time the Fed moved to tighten policy, its efforts were incremental in size and glacial in tempo. After running its quantitative easing program at full throttle for more than five years, the Fed finally began to “taper” its asset-buying program in December of 2013. From that point, it took almost five more years to fully wind down the program and lift rates from zero to 2%. (The 2% rates achieved in October 2018 resulted in the largest December drop in stocks since the Great Depression). If inflation took hold at 6 percent now, such slow and casual moves would be insufficient to make a dent. Does anyone really think the Fed could cancel its $120 billion monthly QE program and raise rates to even 2% in a year or two? Not likely.

On the fiscal side, we are in the opening bars of a crescendo of government spending and activism that will make LBJ’s Great Society look tame by comparison. The Biden administration has massively expanded the welfare state and looks poised to double down on these policies for years to come. Its tax policy will hamstring the American corporate sector and force businesses to relocate overseas. The lost economic activity will be replaced by government spending. But unlike 1980, we can’t expect Ronald Reagan to ride to the rescue. The fiscally conservative, free-trade wing of the Republican party has been taken out and shot by big-spending, anti-trade GOP Trump populists. Practically, this means that we have no defense against inflation, and once it takes hold and metastasizes, we will have little capacity to stop it from spiraling out of control. The result would be a falling dollar that diminishes the real value of Americans’ savings and investments.

President Biden has repeated endlessly that no American making less than $400,000 per year will pay more in taxes. That is a lie. Every American, regardless of income, will be hit by the “inflation tax” that will eat away at their savings and diminish the purchasing power of their paycheck just as surely as payroll or income taxes. This idea is explored in greater detail in our February report Taxed by Inflation.

Investors should do what they can now to protect their wealth from the effects of the inflation tax by seeking assets that will potentially hold up if the dollar does not.

END

OR

EGON VON GREYERZ//MATHEW PEIPENBURG

 

OR

 
PAM AND RUSS MARTENS

Wall Street On Parade

-END-

Lawrie Williams

LAWRIE WILLIAMS: Swiss gold exports to China picking up strongly

We regularly report on the announced gold import and export figures from Switzerland as, in our opinion, they provide an excellent guide to the state of the non- North American and European gold supply/demand picture. Historically, Switzerland’s gold refineries process, and distribute, an amount of gold equivalent to well over half the global new-mined gold output. In some year this amount expands to over 70%. So, despite having approximately zero gold output of its own, Swiss gold imports and exports tend to provide a valuable pointer to gold demand levels – particularly in the key south and east Asia gold markets.

So far this year, the vast majority of the Swiss gold exports have been destined for India – the world’s second largest consumer of the precious metal. Up until now the world’s largest consumer, China, has only been a relatively small recipient, but as the world’s largest gold producer we had surmised that Chinese domestic demand will have been served by the country’s own production, although a month ago we noted that Chinese gold imports from Switzerland – either directly or through Hong Kong – had been beginning to pick up a little.

The latest figures released by the Swiss Customs Administration, covering the month of April’s figures, have confirmed this trend. Indian imports of Swiss gold remain the largest, coming in at 57 tonnes, well down on the previous month’s figure but hardly surprising given the worrying coronavirus statistics coming out of that nation.

China and Hong Kong combined accounted for 51.1 tonnes of te Swiss gold exports in April, a huge pick up from figures reported earlier in the year. Total Swiss gold exports for the month came in at 133.9 tonnes. Probably equivalent to around half global new-mined gold output in April, thus confirming Switzerland as a key conduit for global gold distribution.

Swiss Gold Exports April 2021

Switzerland is not the only exporter of gold to China. Its strong position results from its gold refiners taking in gold scrap, doré bullion (partially refined gold) from mines and larger gold bars and re-refining them into the sizes and purities in demand in Asian markets in particular.

The pick-up in Swiss gold exports to China and Hong Kong had also been fairly predictable given it had been reported that China’s central bank had granted commercial banks permission to import large amounts of bullion in April and May and it was thought that up to around 150 tonnes of gold was likely destined to be imported as a result. A significant proportion of this was always likely to come in via the Swiss refineries, with the balance coming in from countries from which China has always imported gold directly.

Thus the latest figures from Switzerland suggest that global gold trade is just about getting back to normal with China and India remaining the world’s two gold consumption giants. The fall back in Indian imports from Switzerland, though, may well be indicative of a declining trend in the latter’s gold consumption over the remainder of the current year, while the rising Chinese figure will likely show up in the Shanghai Gold Exchange gold withdrawals data, which we take as a guide to overall Chinese demand, for May when that is released in the first half of June.

28 May 2021

or

end

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

Bloomberg reporting BIS trading? Who told them? This is the real story!!

(Bloomberg)

The end times draw near: Bloomberg cites BIS gold trading and seeks comment

 

 

 Section: Daily Dispatches

 

Gold at BOE Commands High Premium, Signaling Central Bank Buying

Yvonne Yue Li and Jack Farchy
Bloomberg News 
via Yahoo News, Sunnyvale, California
Thursday, May 27, 2021

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gold-boe-commands-high-premium-194455336.html

Gold stored at the Bank of England has been selling for unusually high premiums recently, signaling that central banks may be back in the market buying.

The gold in the Bank of England’s London reserves — one of the largest stashes of bullion in the world — is stored and sold on behalf of other central and commercial banks as opposed to being owned by the Bank of England itself. It usually trades within a few cents an ounce of gold held at other London vaults run by commercial banks such as JPMorgan Chase & Co.

But in the past week, gold sold from the Bank of England has traded for as much as 50 cents above benchmark London prices, according to bullion traders. These premiums are at least in part being driven by buying from the Bank for International Settlements, which regularly trades gold on behalf of the world’s central banks, a person with direct knowledge said, asking not to be identified because the information isn’t public.

The BIS bought as much as 1 million ounces of Bank of England metal from various commercial banks at a premium of 30 to 40 cents recently, one person said. The premium for gold at the Bank of England rose to as much as 50 cents an ounce late last week before tapering off to about 20 to 40 cents, according to bullion traders. That compares with a range of zero to 20 cents during normal circumstances, the traders said.

The BIS didn’t immediately return an email and voicemail seeking comment.

The buying may be a sign that one or several central banks are increasing their gold reserves, bullion traders said.

Central banks helped underpin gains in gold prices for most of the last decade, but flipped to net sellers in the third quarter of 2020 as some countries cashed in on surging prices. Renewed buying could help sustain a rally in gold, which on Tuesday recovered all its losses so far this year. The metal is on the way to its biggest monthly gain since July as investors fret about inflation and Federal Reserve officials signal steady monetary policy for now.

Since prices dropped early this year, at least some central banks have returned as buyers. In the past, sovereign lenders have bought gold to diversify their portfolios away from the U.S. dollar to safeguard their finances amid concerns over the Fed’s ultra-loose monetary policy, massive U.S. government spending and inflationary pressures.

Last month the Bank of Thailand raised its gold holdings to 6.35 million ounces from 4.95 million ounces in March, according to data from the International Monetary Fund website. In March, Hungary tripled its gold reserves in one of the biggest purchases by a central bank in decades. Data from the World Gold Council showed global central banks were net buyers of gold in February, led by India, which bought 11.2 tons.

 

END

Your weekend reading material:

Alasdair Macleod: Suffering a sea change

 

 

 Section: Daily Dispatches

 

By Alasdair Macleod
GoldMoney, St. Helier, Jersey, Channel Islands
Thursday, May 27, 2021

There is an established theoretical relationship between bonds and equities that provides a framework for the future performance of financial assets. It would be a mistake to ignore it, ahead of the forthcoming rise in global interest rates.

Price inflation is roaring, and so far central banks are in denial. But it is increasingly difficult to see how monetary policy planners can extend the suppression of interest rates much longer. There can be only one outcome.

Markets — that is to say prices determined by non-state actors — will force central banks to capitulate on interest rates in the summer.

Hardly noticed, China is deliberately putting the brakes on its economy, which will cause an inflationary dollar to collapse, unless the U.S. defends it by putting up interest rates. 

Deliberate?

Almost certainly, as part of its strategy, China is taking the financial war with the U.S. into the foreign exchanges. Bond yields will rise, with the U.S. Treasury 10-year bond leaving a 2% yield far behind.

Equity markets will sense the danger, and it might turn out that the month of May marks a peak in financial asset values — following cryptocurrencies into substantial bear markets. …

… For the remainder of the analysis:

https://www.goldmoney.com/research/goldmoney-insights/suffering-a-sea-change?gmrefcode=gata

end

 

Cryptocurrencies

Crypto carnage resumes!!

(zerohedge)

Crypto Carnage Continues Amid Kuroda, Korea, & Cathie Wood Comments

 
FRIDAY, MAY 28, 2021 – 08:58 AM

Despite the announcement of a $6 trillion budget by the Biden admin, crypto markets resumed their carnage overnight with various catalysts cited as a driver though none particularly new or convincing.

Bitcoin tested $40,000 for the 4th time in the last 4 days… and failed again, tumbling to $35,000 this morning before a small BTFD bid appeared…

Source: Bloomberg

“Volatility has eased this week, but that probably won’t last entering a long weekend,” Edward Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda Corp., wrote in a note.

“Bitcoin’s consolidation phase should continue, but if the $37,000 level breached momentum, it could get ugly fast.”

Ethereum is also getting spanked, failing to hold above $2800 and falling back to $2400 this morning before it also saw a bid…

Source: Bloomberg

Save for a few anomalies, Decrypt notes that all of the top 100 coins by market cap are down by around 10% in the past 24 hours. Data from CoinMarketCap shows that the decline started at 5 am UTC and steepened at 10 am.

The fourth-largest cryptocurrency, Binance Coin, is down 11% since yesterday, now trading for $329. Its price has plummeted almost 15% over the past week.

Cardano is down by 11.36%, even though the blockchain just launched the testnet for its long-awaited smart contract platform, which will eventually turn the network into a direct competitor to Ethereum.

XRP fell 12% in price and became the seventh-largest cryptocurrency by market cap; the coin was supplanted by Dogecoin, now the sixth-largest with a market cap of $41 billion.

“Looking at the unrest across the crypto market, there is a chance that we see another hectic weekend trading in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies,” said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, a senior analyst at Swissquote.

Some have suggested the weakness is ‘Reddit’ traders rotating from crypto back to the meme stocks, though that seems a stretch since the moves have not been correlated (until today’s surge in AMC etc relative to Bitcoin’s battering).

Some have suggested that Bank of Japan’s Kuroda sparked some selling overnight after citing its volatility, he dismissed Bitcoin as “barely used as a means of settlement.”

…adding that the vast majority of Bitcoin trading is “speculative and volatility is extraordinarily high.”

Clarification from Korean regulators on their roles in cracking down on crypto also spooked some overnight:

“No one can guarantee its value, and there is a risk of massive losses due to the volatile exchange environment at home and abroad.”

Additionally, headlines that Burger Swap, the Binance Smart Chain-based decentralized exchange, was hacked for $7.2 million did not help.

Others have pointed out Bitcoin’s inability to reclaim its 200DMA as a driver of more weakness here…

Source: Bloomberg

On the bright side, CoinTelegraph reports that Ark Investment CEO Cathie Wood attempted to calm down fears regarding stricter scrutiny over Bitcoin entities.

Speaking at the Consensus 2021 conference earlier this week, the celebrated tech investor said it is impossible to shut down cryptocurrencies, reiterating her views that regulators would eventually need to wrap their minds around blockchain assets.

“I think the competitive dynamic in the rest of the world is helping us in the United States. I think it’s been good,” Wood said in an interview last week.

On declining institutional investments in the cryptocurrency space, Wood noted that investors had paused their capital flow into Bitcoin and other rival assets over their questionable environmental profile. Elon Musk raised the same issue when his benchmark undertaking Tesla decided to stop taking Bitcoin payments for its electric vehicles.

However, the billionaire entrepreneur later backed an alliance of North American crypto miners to track and reduce crypto-related carbon emissions.

“Half of the solution is: understanding the problem,” Wood said during her Consensus conference address.

“This auditing of what miners, certainly in North America, are willing to do around how much of their electricity usage is generated by renewables is going to bring that topic into stark relief and will encourage an acceleration in the adoption of renewables beyond which otherwise would have taken the place.”

She added that institutional buying in the Bitcoin market would resume on the cryptocurrency’s improving green profile.

Debate on crypto vs gold on Wall Street. Eventually gold will win out as cryptos will go to the instrinsic value and that value is zero

(Bloomberg/GATA)

Crypto vs. gold debate rages on Wall Street as flows reverse

 

 

 Section: Daily Dispatches

 

By Lynn Thomasson and Cecile Gutscher
Bloomberg News
Thursday, May 27, 2021

Gold is back with a vengeance this month just as the crypto rally falls apart, refueling the Wall Street debate over the link between the two putative hedging assets.

Bullion funds have seen the biggest two weeks of inflows since October and prices are edging closer to $1,900 an ounce

In contrast, Bitcoin has plunged by almost 40% from a $63,000 peak and funds are recording outflows.

Yes, the weaker dollar and falling inflation-adjusted yields are big reasons for the gold revival. Elon Musk-spurred volatility, meanwhile, has snuffed out some of the speculative euphoria in Bitcoin, while undermining its ambition to attract the institutional crowd. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-27/crypto-versus-gold-de…

END

This is what all countries’ central banks should do: buy their domestically mined gold and put that gold into reserves to back their currency.

(Central Banking/London/GATA)

Bolivia’s central bank will buy domestically mined gold

 

 

 Section: Daily Dispatches

 

A rich country perhaps insisting a little less on being poor.

* * *

By Ben Margulies
Central Banking, London
Thursday, May 27, 2021

The Bolivian state mining company Comibol announced the country’s central bank had signed a three-year contract on May 19 to purchase gold from it.

The agreement came a day before the mining minister, Ramiro Villavicencio, announced that Bolivia will establish a “commercial gold business” tasked with absorbing tonnes of gold that are being illegally exported, news agency EFE reports. This body will “co-ordinate” with the Central Bank of Bolivia, Villavicencio said.

It is not clear whether Villa vicencio is referring to the BCB-Comibol agreement or the establishment of a separate state enterprise.

According to the central bank’s contract with Comibol, the BCB will buy gold bars of at least 90% purity “with an identification stamp and corresponding number and with certification from an accredited laboratory.

Villavicencio claimed that smugglers took 30 tonnes of gold out of Bolivia illegally in 2019. According to his figures, this was worth more than $1 billion. Most of this is smuggled into neighboring Peru and Brazil, the minister said. …

Gold is Bolivia’s second-largest export by value after natural gas, worth $1.85 billion in 2019, according to the Observatory of Economic Complexity, a trade data website. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.centralbanking.com/central-banks/reserves/gold/7838006/boliv…

 

end
Kingworldnews interviews Mathew Piepenburg
Topics: the rigged comex on gold/silver. Gold will be the centre piece on an international reset
(Kingworldnews/Piepenburg)

Matthew Piepenburg: Comex is rigged against gold but reset won’t be

 

 

 Section: Daily Dispatches

 

5:08p ET Thursday, May 27, 2021

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

At King World News, Matthew Piepenburg of Matterhorn Asset Management in Switzerland writes that the Comex gold market is rigged for price suppression but that gold will be part of the international currency reset just ahead. 

Piepenburg’s essay is headlined “Yes, the Comex Is Rigged to Keep the Price of Gold Artificially Low. I Know. I Was There” and it’s posted at KWN here:

https://kingworldnews.com/yes-the-comex-is-rigged-to-keep-the-price-of-g…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

This is true: Half a trillion dollars is sitting at the Fed under the o/n Reverse Repo facility and this money is earning exactly 0.0000%

(Bloomberg/GATA)

Half a trillion dollars is sitting at the Fed earning nothing

 

 

 Section: Daily Dispatches

 

By Benjamin Purvis and Alex Harris
Bloomberg News
Thursday, May 27, 2021

There’s so much spare cash sloshing around U.S. funding markets that investors are choosing to park almost half a trillion dollars at the central bank — earning absolutely nothing.

Use of the Federal Reserve’s reverse repo facility — a mechanism that’s part of the central bank’s arsenal for helping to steer short-term interest rates — surged today to an unprecedented $485.3 billion. And with the forces driving the dollar glut still some way from abating, that figure could climb further, adding fuel to an increasingly complex debate about what the Fed should do with its various tools to keep a rein on policy. THE RRP facility, as it’s commonly called, is “the only safety valve” for the pressure that has been building up in money markets, according to Gennadiy Goldberg, a senior rates strategist at TD Securities in New York. “It’s really just holding back the flood of cash coming.” …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-27/half-a-trillion-dollars-is-sitting-at-the-fed-earning-nothing

END

Other gold/silver related stories

US Mint Delays Silver Shipments Due To “Global Silver Shortage”

 
FRIDAY, MAY 28, 2021 – 12:45 PM

Interest in silver is soaring (both for industrial use and financial investment), echoing 2013’s crisis, as a recent report from the Silver Institute, silver demand for printed and flexible electronics is forecast to increase 54% over the next 10 years.

Demand for silver in this rapidly developing sector is forecast to come in at 48 million ounces this year. By 2030, the demand is expected to surge to 615 million ounces.

And silver prices are back near recent highs as monetizing debt

And according to the New York Times, the U.S. Mint even upped its coin production in mid-2020 after shortages of coins have been reported in the U.S. as a result of the coronavirus pandemic, but demand over the past few months from coin hodlers appears to have overwhelmed the US Mint.

As they just warned that they are halting sales due to a global silver shortage leaving them unable to meet orders…

The full statement from the US Mint (via Facebook):

The United States Mint is committed to providing the best possible online experience to its customers.

The global silver shortage has driven demand for many of our bullion and numismatic products to record heights. This level of demand is felt most acutely by the Mint during the initial product release of numismatic items. Most recently in the pre-order window for 2021 Morgan Dollar with Carson City privy mark (21XC) and New Orleans privy mark (21XD), the extraordinary volume of web traffic caused significant numbers of Mint customers to experience website anomalies that resulted in their inability to complete transactions.

In the interest of properly rectifying the situation, the Mint is postponing the pre-order windows for the remaining 2021 Morgan and Peace silver dollars that were originally scheduled for June 1 (Morgan Dollars struck at Denver (21XG) and San Francisco (21XF)) and June 7 (Morgan Dollar struck at Philadelphia (21XE) and the Peace Dollar (21XH)).

While inconvenient to many, this deliberate delay will give the Mint the time necessary to obtain web traffic management tools to enhance the user experience. As the demand for silver remains greater than the supply, the reality is such that not everyone will be able to purchase a coin. However, we are confident that during the postponement, we will be able to greatly improve on our ability to deliver the utmost positive U.S. Mint experience that our customers deserve. We will announce revised pre-order launch dates as soon as possible.

For now, according to generic data from Bloomberg, the physical premium over paper prices has somewhat normalized…

But a quick check of actual prices in the real world shows silver bullion trading at a huge premium…

Source: APMEX

All of which makes us wonder about what GoldMoney’s Alasdair Macleod warns is the potentially imminent end to paper silver markets as the likely consequences of the Bank for International Settlements’ introduction of the net stable funding requirement (NSFR) for bank balance sheets.

If they are introduced as proposed, banks will face significant financing penalties for taking trading positions in derivatives. The problem is particularly important for the London gold market, as described in last week’s article on this subject. Therefore they are likely to withdraw from providing derivative liquidity and associated services. This article delves into the consequences of the NSFR leading to the end of the London forward markets in gold and silver. Replacement demand for physical metal appears bound to rise, and an assessment is therefore made of available gold not tied up in jewellery and industrial uses. An analysis of gold leasing by central banks, leading to double ownership of physical gold, is included. The conclusion is that unless the BIS has an ulterior motive to trigger a chaotic financial reset of some sort, it is a case of regulators not understanding the market consequences of their actions.

As Peter Schiff recently notedalong with increased silver demand for printed and flexible electronics, analysts expect the solar energy and automotive sectors to demand more silver in the coming years. But at its core, silver is a monetary metal. It tends to track with gold over time. Looking at the big picture, the biggest driver for precious metals continues to be Federal Reserve monetary policy. In order to turn bearish on gold and silver, you have to believe the Federal Reserve is actually going to tighten monetary policy and the dollar is going to remain strong. But given the massive dose of monetary heroin the central bank has injected into the economy, the Fed really has no way outThere is no exit strategy from this extreme monetary policy. That bodes well for both silver and gold in the long term.

end

Chris Marcus…

Even The Banks Are Admitting There’s Not Enough Silver

Today I’m joined by Chris Ackerman and Greg Johnson from Metallic Minerals to discuss the reality of silver supply.

To find out more, click to watch the video now!

***

end

Dave Kranzler of IRD…

Money Supply Growth + Inflation = Cheap Gold, Silver & Mining Stocks

May 28, 2021Financial Markets, Gold, Market Manipulation, Precious Metals, U.S. EconomyGDX, inflation, mining stocks, silver

“April 2021 money supply and monetary base growth continued to explode” – John Williams, Shadowstats.com

Williams is referencing the “base” monetary aggregates which are compiled monthly. The Fed’s balance sheet grows by the week, hitting $7.922 trillion as of May 19th. It’s doubled plus another 13% since September 2019, when “QE” was restarted. The Fed has been printing money and buying Treasuries and mortgages at rate than the assumed $120 billion per month. But the mainstream media fails to report that the policy statement reads “at least $120 billion per month.”

The rate of growth in the money supply is unprecedented in history. It showed up first in the financial markets: stocks, bonds and housing prices (yes, because most homes are purchased using a high loan-to-value mortgage, homes can be considered financial assets). Now the devaluation of the dollar is showing up – uncontrollably – as price inflation across goods and services.

It’s ludicrous for the Fed to promote the idea that the spike up consumer prices is “transitory.” Just like it was absurd for Ben Bernanke in 2007 to proclaim that subprime mortgage defaults were “contained.” As long as the Fed’s balance sheet keeps expanding and the money supply continues growing, price inflation will get worse.

It many not feel like it because of the volatility in the sector and because of all of the hype in the media about the general stock market, but gold is up 12.7% and silver is up 15.3% since March 30th. Since March 1st, GDX is up 30.3% while the S&P 500 is up 7.9%. If the SPX had risen 30.3% since March 1st, the anchors on CNBC would be doing naked cartwheels on live television.

The point here is that the precious metals sector, in spite of the intense manipulation right now, is starting to reflect the soaring rate of dollar devaluation/price inflation. After the run it’s had starting in March, it’s likely we’ll get a brief period of technical consolidation with some volatility.

But more money printing and deficit spending will be required to prevent the economy from falling apart again. We got a preview of this with Biden’s proposed spending budget this week. This will be rocket fuel for the precious metals sector.

Gold is now making a serious run at the $1900 benchmark and silver is challenging $28. I expect both metals to undergo two-way volatility around those two key technical and psychological price levels for at least a few weeks. But I would not be surprised of both price levels have been left in the rear-view mirror by the July 4th holiday.

The mining stocks remain historically undervalued in relation to the money supply and relative to the prices of gold and silver even after the 30% move since early March. After a brief consolidation period that will relieve the “overbought” readings of the RSI and MACD, I expect the mining stocks to make huge run higher this summer.

**********************************

The commentary above is from the introduction of the latest issue of the Mining Stock Journal. I look for early stage and advancing junior exploration development companies, ideally ideas that are not yet well-followed. I also will point out stocks to avoid with a brief rationale when subscribers ask my opinion on stocks I do not cover. A good example is Americas Gold and Silver (USAS), which I recommended avoiding a couple years ago.

I also recently started a “mid/large cap corner” in which I present some shorter term trading ideas in larger producing miners when I believe the market has made a mistake in taking down the price of specific stocks. This would include call option ideas if applicable.

The mining stocks are once again historically cheap. At some point this year I will be raising the subscription price, though existing subscribers will be grandfathered at the current monthly rate. If you would like some ideas for investing in mining stocks, take a look at my Mining Stock Journal.

***

Note: John Embry, who has made a fortune analyzing markets and companies, say the fundamentals for many of the gold/silver stocks are the best he has ever seen in terms of their value and cheapness.

Your early FRIDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED UP at 6.3759 /

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.3759   /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 8.07 PTS OR 0.22% 

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 11.21 PTS OR 0.04%  

2. Nikkei closed UP 600.40 PTS OR 2.10%

3. Europe stocks  ALL GREEN

 

USA dollar index  DOWN TO 90.37/Euro FALLS TO 1.2142

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: RISES TO. +.085/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 110.07/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

3c Nikkei now JUST ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 67.28 and Brent: 69.50

3f Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE CLOSED DOWN DOWN/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO -.178%/Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP to 0.93% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 0.48%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.11: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 0.84

3k Gold at $1892.00 silver at: 27.53   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble  UP 14/100 in roubles/dollar) 73.59

3m oil into the 67 dollar handle for WTI and 69 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 110.07 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9026 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0959 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to 0.178%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 1.612% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.287%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  DOWN  TO 8.59.. DEADLY

Futures Jump, Meme Stocks Soar Ahead Of Key Inflation Print

 
FRIDAY, MAY 28, 2021 – 07:56 AM

S&P futures rose on Friday after solid economic data and Joe Biden’s leaked $6 trillion federal budget plans spurred a Wall Street rally in cyclical shares ahead of a closely watched inflation report offsetting recent worries about a spike in prices put the S&P 500 on course for its smallest monthly gain since February. At 7:15 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were up 177 points, or 0.5%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 16 points, or 0.38%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 48 points, or 0.35%. Treasuries were steady and the dollar strengthened. Markets will be shut on Monday for Memorial Day holiday

In a continuation of yesterday’s retail buying frenzy, meme stocks GameStop and AMC Entertainment were set for a fifth day of gains, soaring 4.1% and 21.8% respectively, extending gains on the back of a social media-led rally that helped double the value of AMC’s stock this week. Here are some of the other biggest U.S. movers today:

  • HP shares (HPQ) drop 5% in U.S. premarket trading after beating Wall Street estimates but warning that the ongoing computer chip shortage could impact its ability to meet demand for laptops this year. This prompted concerns strong PC sales have peaked. Morgan Stanley sees the pullback as a buying opportunity, calling the supply chain risks “manageable.”
  • Salesforce.com (CRM) rose 4.9% after raising its full-year forecast for revenue and profit, helped by increased demand for its cloud-based software during the pandemic.
  • Iterum Therapeutics (ITRM) jumps 27% in premarket trading after saying the FDA doesn’t deem an advisory committee meeting as necessary as it reviews the co.’s new drug application for sulopenem etzadroxil/probenecid.
  • Stocks exposed to cryptocurrencies such as Marathon Digital (MARA) and Riot Blockchain (RIOT) decline as Bitcoin falls as much as 5.2% against the dollar.
  • Boeing Co fell 1% after reports said it halted deliveries of its 787 Dreamliners, adding fresh delays for customers following a recent five-month delivery suspension due to production problems.
  • Salesforce.com Inc added 4.9% premarket after raising its full-year forecast for revenue and profit, helped by increased demand for its cloud-based software during the pandemic.

The Fed’s favorite inflation metric – the core PCE index – will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET, and is expected to have risen 0.6% in April after a 0.4% increase in March. A big beat could give credence to fears of an overheating economy and prompt the central bank to reconsider its accommodative monetary policy.

Biden is reportedly set to unveil a budget that would take federal spending to $6 trillion in the coming fiscal year. Investors will watch data on personal spending and the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure later Thursday for further clues on the outlook for prices.

Global stocks are set to climb for a fourth month, supported by the frenzied economic rebound from Covid-19, while comments from Federal Reserve and global central bank officials have helped temper fears that inflation could spark a faster-than-expected reduction in stimulus. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said she sees the burst in prices as temporary, though likely to last through the end of 2021.

“Between now and year end, we see a little more room for stocks to move up from where they are today and the highs they already achieved earlier this year,” Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets LLC, wrote in a note. “But we don’t think that the path to get there will be smooth and think a short-term pullback before the year is up remains likely.”

European stocks reached a fresh record high, boosted by expectations that the European Central Bank won’t hit the brake on stimulus measures next month. The Euro Stoxx 50 rose 0.6% to best levels of the week. DAX outperformed slightly, with Insurance, financial services and industrial names the leading sectors, while miners and autos are slightly in the red. Here are some of the biggest European movers today:

  • Marimekko shares jump as much as 14% to a record after the Finnish design company announced a debut collection with Adidas, “marking the first-ever sports apparel collaboration from Marimekko.”
  • Cattolica gains as much as 12% and is the day’s second-best performer on the FTSE Italia All-Share Index after reporting 1Q results that Equita called “solid.”
  • Solutions 30 advances as much as 30%, a third session of gains after the stock crashed 71% on Monday when the company said Ernst & Young couldn’t give an opinion on its 2020 financial statements.
  • Banco Sabadell drops as much as 4.3% after unveiling its new strategic plan that includes cost savings that “may require additional convincing,” according to Jefferies.
  • Corbion falls as much as 6.3% after Barclays downgrades to equal-weight from overweight, citing cost headwinds in raw materials.

Earlier in the session, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.8% while Japan’s Topix index closed 1.9% higher. Chinese stocks fell for the first time in five days, as foreign investors ended their buying spree after the nation’s central bank signaled the yuan’s recent gains have been too fast. The CSI 300 Index shed 0.3%, driven by declines in healthcare and technology firms. Still, the benchmark recorded its best week in more than three months with a 3.6% advance, mainly fueled by Tuesday’s jump that was the most since July last year. The People’s Bank of China set a weaker-than-expected daily reference rate for the yuan Friday, following its statement the previous day warning against one-way bets. The Chinese currency hit a five-year high against a basket of trading partners this week, prompting overseas investors to pile into local assets including stocks.

Foreigners became net sellers of mainland shares for the first time this week, reflecting jitters caused by the PBOC’s latest moves on the currency. They trimmed 526 million yuan worth of holdings Friday, paring net purchases this week to 46.8 billion yuan.

In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 index rose 1.2% to 7,179.50, surpassing its previous record from May 10. The benchmark was supported by gains among miners and energy stocks. The gauge climbed 2.1% for the week, its best since April 9. Inghams was the best performing stock on Friday after saying its forecast earnings may exceed current consensus for the FY21 period. Nuix was the biggest laggard after ending a consultancy pact. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index fell 0.5% to 12,182.25. The benchmark dipped back into technical correction territory after dropping over 10% from its Jan. 8 record.

In rates, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield hovered above 1.60% amid growth optimism and concerns of more debt supply to fund spending. Yield curves bear steepen, long end gilts underperform, trading ~1bps cheaper to bunds. Following a slate of U.S. economic data including April personal income and spending, focus is likely to shift to month-end rebalancing, at 2pm ET for Bloomberg Barclays Treasury Index, conforming to Sifma’s early close recommendation ahead of U.S. holiday weekend. In Europe, semi-core and peripheral spreads are mixed, BTPs are steady despite softer auction metrics. Cash USTs hold a narrow range ahead of a round of economic data and an early close at 2pm New York ahead of Monday’s Memorial Day holiday.

In FX, Bloomberg Dollar index was little changed, trading near the best levels of the week. The yen fell as Japan recommended extending a state of emergency that includes Tokyo to curb infections. The euro was steady around $1.22 after earlier dipping to a one- week low. The pound inched lower, retreating from Thursday’s rally, with concerns growing that the U.K. won’t be able to fully re-open its economy later in June; traders were also reconsidering a speech from Bank of England policy maker Gertjan Vlieghe on Thursday, which pushed up the pound and gilt yields. Sweden’s krona fell, paring some of yesterday’s gain, but stayed within its recent range versus the greenback. The Australian dollar rose over its New Zealand peer on short- covering from funds ahead of Tuesday’s RBA policy meeting. China signaled the yuan’s recent appreciation is too rapid, with a weaker-than-expected reference rate. NZD and SEK were the worst G-10 performers. TRY weakens to a record low against USD.

In commodities, crude futures drift off the lows, WTI regains a $67-handle, Brent holds above $69.50. Spot gold holds a narrow range, finding support around Thursday’s lows near $1,890/oz. Most base metals are in the green with LME tin rallying sharply on production concerns.

Bitcoin slipped toward the $35,000 level, wiping out most of this week’s advance as Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda warned about token’s volatility and speculative trading. The digital currency lost 7% to trade around $35,700, recalling levels seen in last week’s crypto meltdown. Bitcoin is now flat for the week after a run that’s seen prices swing between $33,000 and $39,000.

Looking at the day ahead now, additional data highlights from the US include April’s data on personal income and personal spending, the MNI Chicago PMI for May, and the preliminary wholesale inventories for April. From central banks, the ECB’s Villeroy will be speaking, while there’s also a virtual meeting of G7 finance ministers and central bank governors.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.3% to 4,212.25
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.43% to 448.36
  • MXAP up 0.9% to 208.34
  • MXAPJ up 0.5% to 698.91
  • Nikkei up 2.1% to 29,149.41
  • Topix up 1.9% to 1,947.44
  • Hang Seng Index little changed at 29,124.41
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.2% to 3,600.78
  • Sensex up 0.7% to 51,497.16
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 1.2% to 7,179.51
  • Kospi up 0.7% to 3,188.73
  • Brent Futures little changed at $69.49/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.2% to $1,892.44
  • U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 90.02
  • German 10Y yield rose 0.2 bps to -0.170%
  • Euro little changed at $1.2197

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel played down concerns over rising borrowing costs as policy makers prepare for their next meeting, saying that higher bond yields reflect an improving economy
  • The latest repricing in currency volatility skews shows how investors are placing their bets on which central bank moves first away from extraordinary stimulus. Leveraged and institutional names alike have added positions lately that use the likes of the euro, the yen and the Swiss franc as funding currencies in carry trades versus emerging market and cyclical ones, a Europe-based trader says
  • The Bank of Japan will consider climate change in its monetary policy discussions, Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said in his clearest signal yet that the central bank is looking to support the battle against global warming
  • France’s statistics agency cut its estimate of economic output at the start of the year, showing the euro area’s second largest economy slipped into a recession for the second time in the Covid pandemic
  • China has dialed up its rhetoric about surging commodity prices and a strong currency with almost daily commentary by officials and in state media in the past two weeks, a sign authorities are becoming more uncomfortable with recent gains
  • China is signaling that the yuan’s recent appreciation is too rapid, with steps that are likely to slow — but not reverse — its gains after the currency soared tomulti-year highs against that of trading partners
  • U.K. firms are more upbeat about the economy than at any time since 2016, buoyed by a further easing of coronavirus restrictions in May, the Lloyds Bank Business Barometer shows
  • Gold stored at the Bank of England has been selling for unusually high premiums recently, signaling that central banks may be back in the market buying
  • The Japanese government recommended extending a state of emergency that includes Tokyo and other major cities, in a last-ditch effort to rein in Covid infections ahead of the capital hosting the Olympics in less than two months

Quick look at global market news courtesy of Newsquawk

Asian equity markets traded mostly higher as the region improved upon the slight positive tilt seen on Wall St. and US equity futures also marginally extended on the prior day’s late ramp-up on what was otherwise a choppy session following mixed data releases and heading into month-end. ASX 200 (+1.2%) was underpinned by continued outperformance in the mining-related sectors amid strength in underlying commodity prices and with risk appetite also spurred by potential M&A reports including BetMakers Technology’s proposal to acquire Tabcorp’s wagering and media business for AUD 4.0bln, while KKR and Domain Holdings partnered on a surprise AUD 3bln bid for PEXA that boosted shares in Link Administration which the largest shareholder in PEXA with a 44% stake. Nikkei 225 (+2.1%) outperformed as exporters cheered the recent currency weakness and with the BoJ said to consider a 6-month extension to the September deadline for the pandemic-relief program as soon as the next policy meeting on June 17th/18th. Hang Seng (+0.1%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.2%) were mixed with focus in Hong Kong on JD Logistics which jumped over 10% on its debut and which was the 2nd largest IPO for the city so far this year, although the mainland lagged following the recent strengthening of the CNY to a 5-year high against a basket of currencies and amid lingering tensions with the US after the bipartisan bill to counter China received enough support to advance in the US Senate. Finally, 10yr JGBs tracked the recent declines in T-notes with demand hampered by the outperformance of Japanese stocks which pressured prices in the 10yr benchmark beneath 151.50, while the central bank’s presence in the market for over JPY 1.1tln of JGBs heavily concentrated in 3yr-10yr maturities did little to spur a rebound.

Top Asian News

  • Traders Grapple With Grief While India’s Markets Keep Rising
  • Survivors Tell a Harrowing Tale of Lapses in India Sea Disaster
  • Vaccine Progress, Weak Yen a Reprieve for Japan’s Lagging Stocks
  • Japan Widens Vaccine Center Access as Thousands of Slots Remain;
  • Kuroda Says BOJ Will Mull Climate in Monetary Policy Discussions

Equities in Europe hold onto the modest gains seen at the cash open and some more (Euro Stoxx 50 +0.5%), following on from mixed trade seen across APAC and on Wall Street, with the tone somewhat tentative ahead of US PCE and looming month-end. As a reminder, US and UK markets will be closed on Monday due to public holidays. US equity futures meanwhile have been grinding higher since the start of European trade despite a distinct lack of news flow as markets approach the summer period, whilst global central bank officials continue to stress the need for current levels of support and hold the view that inflationary pressures are transitory and not secular. Back to Europe, sectors are mostly positive with the earlier cyclical bias fading to a more broad-based/themeless picture with some idiosyncratic outliers. Banks top the chart amid the favourable yield environment, whilst Autos and Basic resources lag, with the latter seeing renewed pressure as China continues to jawbone commodity prices. Individual movers are relatively scarce, but SAP (+0.3%) has ultimately failed to glean much tailwind from its US peer Salesforce rising +4% post-earnings. Airbus (+2.4%) meanwhile remains firm following yesterday’s production upgrade alongside a positive broker move by JPM today.

Top European News

  • Europe’s Top Stock in 2015 Stakes Revival on Payment Cards
  • U.K. Considers Carbon Border Tax to Protect Domestic Industry
  • Germany Plans to Expand Coronavirus Vaccinations to Children
  • Danske Bank Veteran Chief Analyst Leaves for Banking Circle

In FX, far from all change or hero to zero, as the Kiwi remains firmly on track to record healthy gains vs the Greenback and Aussie on diverging Central Bank policy outlooks following the hawkish RBNZ shift to signal a September 2022 OCR lift-off on Wednesday. However, Nzd/Usd has retreated through 0.7250 from around 0.7317 at best and Aud/Nzd has bounced just over 50 pips from a whisker above 1.0600 amidst what appears to be profit taking and a technical correction more than anything fundamental given that Aud/Usd remains heavy after failing to retain hold of the 0.7800 handle and subsequently not sustaining momentum beyond the half round number below. Meanwhile, the Buck is also struggling to build on recovery gains even though month end factors are mildly supportive/constructive, especially against the Yen and US Treasury yields are off recent lows ahead of potentially key data and surveys, like PCE inflation, advanced trade and Chicago PMI, on top of President Biden’s Budget presentation. Indeed, the DXY has not extended much further having regained 90.000+ status before waning again within a 90.163-89.987 band and falling fractionally short of the w-t-d high posted yesterday.

  • EUR/GBP/JPY- The Euro got a somewhat unexpected boost from ECB’s Schnabel delivering a more upbeat assessment of the Eurozone economic recovery, and crucially no concern whatsoever about the recent leg-up in yields as in her view this reflects the improving outlook and is desirable. She also believes that financing conditions remain favourable, in contrast with distinctly dovish midweek commentary from Panetta and others of late. Hence, Eur/Usd is still keeping 1.2200 in sight and averting attempts to test/trigger stops that are anticipated to be sitting circa 1.2160 (double bottom from last week), though may find it hard to revisit 1.2250+ peaks as heavy option expiry interest resides between 1.2200-10 (1.6 bn), 1.2215-25 (1 bn) and 1.2265-75 (1 bn). Similarly, Sterling has continued its revival from worst levels in wake of hawkish BoE vibes from Vlieghe on Thursday, albeit with less impetus via Haldane who is also due to leave the MPC shortly and already dissented this month in favour of a Gbp 50 bn APF Gilt reduction – see 10.00BST and 9.27BST posts on the Headline Feed for more. Nevertheless, Cable has peered over 1.4200 again and Eur/Gbp remains sub-0.8600. Elsewhere, the Yen may actually rescued from a worse fate by option expiries at the 110.00 strike (2 bn) as its strives to contain losses and arrest a slide into month end, and with some market observers also flagging the prospect that Japanese exporters could be buyers at the level for hedge purposes to offset the tide of rebalancing flows.
  • CHF/CAD – Both on the backfoot against their US counterpart, with the Franc not drawing much encouragement from a significantly stronger than expected Swiss KOF indicator as it hovers near 0.9000, while the Loonie seems equally unimpressed with a firm revival in crude prices, but may be cushioned by unusually large option expiries running off at the 1.2100 strike later (1.5 bn for the NY cut).

In commodities, WTI Jul and Brent Aug trade relatively flat with an upside bias, in line with the cautiously positive risk tone, with the former on either side of USD 67/bbl (vs 66.74-67.45 range) and the latter just north of USD 69/bbl (vs 69.01-64 range). News flow for the complex has remained light after the gains seen yesterday as Biden’s USD 6tln 2022 budget proposal energised the bulls, with eyes still on the Iranian nuclear deal discussions – with the noise surrounding this much quieter this week vs the last. “However, if and when there is a breakthrough, we would expect it to lead to some immediate downward pressure on the market. We expect any weakness to be short-lived, however, given that the medium-term fundamentals are still supportive.” ING suggests, whilst also citing the upcoming summer driving season. Elsewhere, spot gold and silver have been uneventful and mildly pressured by the firmer Buck and yields. Spot gold has dipped back below USD 1,900/oz with the level acting as overnight resistance. Turning to base metals, Dalian iron ore continued to recover overnight from its recent losses, but the focus remains on Beijing’s commodities crackdown with China’s Securities Journal re-running similar reports to last week regarding the crackdown of speculatively driven price fluctuations. Further, sources note that several Chinese commodity firms pared back their bullish futures bets at the request of the government. LME copper has been subdued but holds onto its USD 10,000/t. Goldman Sachs said the fundamental path for key commodities including oil, copper and soybeans remains oriented towards incremental tightness in H2 with scant evidence that supply response is enough to derail the bull market, while it added that the bullish thesis in commodities is not about Chinese speculators nor is it growth in Chinese demand, but is about scarcity and a DM-led recovery.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: April Personal Spending, est. 0.5%, prior 4.2%
  • 8:30am: April Personal Income, est. -14.2%, prior 21.1%
  • 8:30am: April PCE Deflator MoM, est. 0.6%, prior 0.5%; PCE Deflator YoY, est. 3.5%, prior 2.3%
    • 8:30am: April PCE Core Deflator MoM, est. 0.6%, prior 0.4%; PCE Core Deflator YoY, est. 2.9%, prior 1.8%
  • 8:30am: April Retail Inventories MoM, est. -2.0%, prior -1.4%
    • 8:30am: April Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 0.7%, prior 1.3%
  • 8:30am: April Advance Goods Trade Balance, est. -$92b, prior -$90.6b
  • 9:45am: May MNI Chicago PMI, est. 68.0, prior 72.1
  • 10am: May U. of Mich. Current Conditions, prior 90.8
  • 10am: May U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 83.0, prior 82.8; 1 Yr Inflation, prior 4.6%; 5-10 Yr Inflation, prior 3.1%

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Yesterday was the first day in about 6 weeks that I ventured outside in just a short sleeve shirt. Summer is arriving at last and now looks pretty set fair for the next couple of weeks. Famous last words. I’m celebrating tomorrow by playing a 36 hole golf tournament, then an 18 hole one on Sunday, Legoland on Bank Holiday Monday and then I’m taking a day’s holiday on Tuesday to play another 36 hole golf tournament. Any guesses as to which one of those days I’m looking forward to least? My aim is to go on as few (preferably zero) stomach churning rollercoasters as possible.

With the sun out at least in this little corner of the world, global cyclical equities posted a decent performance yesterday after generally positive data releases and further good news on the pandemic helped to support risk appetite. Next week’s ISM numbers and US jobs report will be more important to sentiment but for now optimism has edged the S&P 500 (+0.12%) back to within 0.8% of its all-time high. Meanwhile Europe’s STOXX 600 (+0.27%) advanced for a 6th successive session to a new record.

US capital goods (+1.86%) and banks (+1.45%) led the moves higher for the S&P, while small-cap stocks also performed strongly as the Russell 2000 index advanced +1.06%. Pandemic outperformers lagged once again with tech hardware (-0.93%) and software (-0.68%) among the poorest performing industries. In Europe it was much the same story of cyclicals leading the charge, which included the STOXX Banks index rising +2.18% to another post-pandemic high.

In term of the catalysts, the weekly initial jobless claims from the US proved to be better than expected for the week through May 22, coming in at a post-pandemic low of 406k (vs. 425k expected). In turn, this raised hopes further that next week’s jobs report will prove that the underwhelming April release of just a +266k increase in nonfarm payrolls was a blip rather than a trend. Our own economists are expecting a decent bounce back with an +800k increase in nonfarm payrolls, which would be the best number since last August given the revisions to the previous data. Other numbers also proved stronger than expected, with core capital goods orders rising by +2.3% in April (vs. +1.0% expected), even if the broader headline durable goods orders unexpectedly fell -1.3% (vs. +0.8% expected).

One additional notable data highlight was US Q1 core PCE, which was revised up two tenths to 2.5%, which in turn lifted the YoY estimates for Q1 to 1.61% from 1.55%. That is the second highest quarterly uptick in core PCE since 2012, with only Q3 of last year (the initial reopening) being higher. This will have inflation-watchers even more focused on today’s April core PCE deflator print and the final reading on the University of Michigan May consumer sentiment. Our economists expect an large increase (+0.77% forecast vs. +0.36% previously), given the outsized strength in the April CPI and PPI data. If their expectations bear out, it would bring the YoY growth rate up from 1.8% to 3.1%, with half of that due to base effects rolling off of the calculation. For the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index (83.0 final vs. 82.8 preliminary), the attention will be on revisions to the median 5 – 10 year inflation expectations series. The preliminary release showed a 40bp surge to 3.1% – the highest since August 2008. This number can be heavily revised so definitely one to watch as we think expectations are going to be key to whether inflation takes a foothold.

Another reflationary headline was regarding President Biden’s budget for fiscal year 2022, which is set to be unveiled today. The New York Times reported that it would include a call for $6tn of federal spending in the 2022 fiscal year. Furthermore, over the decade it would take federal spending to its highest sustained levels since WWII according to the report, with the government spending more each year as a percentage of GDP than at any time since WWII, with the exception of 2020 and 2021 during the coronavirus recession and response.

Though US budgets are more aspirational documents that still have to be worked out in Congress, Treasury yields moved higher, with the 10yr yield up +3.1bps to 1.606%. The increase was as a result of a mix of higher real yields (+1.7) and inflation expectations (+1.2bps), with the latter only rising twice in the last eight sessions now. The 7yr auction seemed to go ok which took yields off their highs (1.623%) for the day. Remember it was a bad 7yr auction at the end of February that led to one of the biggest intra-day moves higher in yields we have seen for some time.

European yields also moved higher, with those on bunds (+3.4bps), OATs (+3.1bps) and BTPs (+1.5bps) all rising. Meanwhile the spread of 10yr Greek debt over bunds fell yet again to 104.8bps, its tightest level since 2008.

One of the more outsized moves came from gilts yesterday, with 10yr yields up +5.8bps following comments from Gertjan Vlieghe of the BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee. He said that his “central scenario” was that the economy evolved similarly to the MPC’s May projections, but with “somewhat more slack”. Under this scenario, his view was that “the first rise in Bank Rate is likely to become appropriate only well into next year”. Nevertheless, a 2022 hike was more aggressive than markets were previously pricing, and he also said that under an upside scenario, then it would be in Q1 2022 that there’s “a clear view of the post-furlough unemployment and wage dynamics, so a rise in Bank Rate could be appropriate soon after”, so an even quicker pace potentially. The comments also helped sterling to be the top-performing G10 currency yesterday, strengthening +0.59% against the US Dollar.

Asian markets have largely taken Wall Street’s cyclical lead this morning with the Nikkei (+2.23%), Hang Seng (+0.63%), and Kospi (+0.88%) all up with Japanese equities boosted by a weaker Yen. Chinese bourses are trading without any direction though with the Shanghai Comp flat, the CSI (-0.09%) down and the Shenzhen Comp (+0.22%) up. In Fx, the Chinese yuan is up +0.23% to 6.3688, to the strongest level since May 2018 and is now up +2.89% since March 31st. Elsewhere, Australia’s 10y yields are up +6.5bps to 1.688% as markets begin to price in a more hawkish RBA outlook following the RBNZ meeting on Wednesday. Outside of Asia, futures on the S&P 500 are up +0.34% while metal prices have also gained with DCE iron ore up +3.33% and SHF steel rebar up +3.42%.

On the pandemic, the improving picture at the global level has seen the rate of new weekly case growth come down by more than a third since its peak a month ago, according to data from John Hopkins University, though we’re still some way above the recent trough in mid-February. Nonetheless, the Covid-19 related concerns remain with the Japanese government indicating overnight that the state of emergency would be extended in Tokyo and other regions to June 20, a little more than a month before the Tokyo Olympics start. PM Suga is expected to announce the formal decision later today and the decision to extend the state of emergency will affect almost half of Japan’s population. In the UK, there were continued concerns over the spread of the Indian variant, as cases rose to a fresh 6-week high of 3,542 yesterday, and Health secretary Hancock said to MPs that the lifting of restrictions on June Y21 would only take place “if it’s safe.” The hope is that the relatively advanced vaccination programme in the UK will help to blunt the link between cases to hospitalisations and deaths, with more than 73% of the adult population now having received a first vaccine dose, and more than 45% having had a second one. The German government announced that the country will start vaccinating children 12 and older starting June 7 on a voluntary basis. Lastly there was good news in the US, where a Quinnipiac poll showed 72% of Americans have either gotten a vaccine shot or are planning on getting one, this up from a mid-April iteration of the survey which measured it at 68%. Those who said they would not get vaccinated dropped 4pp to 23%. This comes as vaccination rates have slowed in recent weeks as over 50% of the adult population is now fully vaccinated according to the White House. On the topic of returning to normality, 73% of those polled said their Memorial Day Weekend plans (this weekend for our non-US readers) are similar to those pre-pandemic.

Looking at yesterday’s other data, the second estimate of Q1 GDP for the US maintained the annualised rate of growth at +6.4%, contrary to expectations for a +6.5% reading. Meanwhile pending home sales for April unexpectedly fell -4.4% (vs. +0.4% expected), and the Kansas City Fed’s manufacturing activity index for May also underperformed with a 26 reading (vs. 30 expected). In Europe, the German GfK consumer confidence for June underwhelmed at -7.0 (vs. -5.2 expected), though Italy’s consumer confidence index from Istat increased to a post-pandemic high of 110.6 in May (vs. 104.0 expected).

To the day ahead now, and additional data highlights from the US include April’s data on personal income and personal spending, the MNI Chicago PMI for May, and the preliminary wholesale inventories for April. Over in Europe, there’s also the preliminary French CPI reading for May, as well as the Euro Area’s final consumer confidence for May. From central banks, the ECB’s Villeroy will be speaking, while there’s also a virtual meeting of G7 finance ministers and central bank governors.

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)FRIDAY MORNING/ THURSDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 8.07 PTS OR 0.22%   //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 11.21 PTS OR 0.04%      /The Nikkei closed UP 600.40 pts or 2.10%  //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 1.09%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP AT 6.3759 /Oil DOWN TO 67.28 dollars per barrel for WTI and 69.50 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MIXED   //  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.3759. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.3759   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING  WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

NORTH KOREA//USA/

 

END

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

JAPAN

 

3 C CHINA

CHINA

China braces for a summer of floods as 97 rivers exceed warning levels

(zerohedge)

China Braces For Summer Of Floods As 97 Rivers Exceed Warning Levels 

 
THURSDAY, MAY 27, 2021 – 11:00 PM

China braces for another dangerous flood season with 97 rivers already exceeding warning levels as of Thursday, according to Chinese state media Global Times. Major floods are expected this summer, and Western media will soon be drumming up headlines about how confidence in China’s flood control capabilities is faltering. 

Water levels along the Yangtze River basin and its tributaries are expected to increase over the next week, the Ministry of Water Resources said, adding that major floods are possible throughout the country from June to August. 

Wang Wei, an official with the flood and drought disaster prevention office of the Ministry of Water Resources, told state broadcaster China Central Television (CCTV) that total flood control capacity is approximately 69.5 billion cubic meters – most of the reservoirs have been discharged to full levels. He said the water level of the Three Gorges Reservoir is about 150.83 meters as of Wednesday and will decline through June 10. 

Sun Chunpeng, director of the hydrological information and forecast center under the water resources ministry, told CCTV rivers of southern China are experiencing record-high levels. More precipitation is expected in the weeks ahead and could push river levels to even higher dangerous levels. 

The country’s largest freshwater lake, called Poyang Lake, located in Jiangxi Province, could have water above warning levels by the end of the week. 

“This year’s rainy season has come earlier than usual, but it is still within the normal range. Last year, China recorded record heavy rainfall, so the chance of this year being the same is low, but extreme weather is unpredictable due to the impact of global warming,” Cheng Xiaotao, the former head for the Institute of Flood Control and Disaster Reduction, with the China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, told the Global Times. 

QingMa Investment, a hedge fund based in Shanghai China, shows flooding risks are climbing for China. 

Last summer’s rainy season was the second-highest level since 1961, which triggered massive flooding and fears of the giant Three Gorges Dam failure that circulated across Western media. 

It’s about that time Western media becomes obsessed with China flooding stories and persuades the world that China’s flood control capabilities are lacking

 

END

 

CHINA/WUHAN LAB/NEW YORK TIMES.

What is this world coming to??  The entire media is compromised. Discussing the Wuhan lab leak is “racist” to this New York Times reporter

 

(Watson/SummitNews) 

New York Times COVID Reporter Says It’s “Racist” To Discuss Wuhan Lab Leak Theory

 
FRIDAY, MAY 28, 2021 – 08:24 AM

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

A New York Times reporter who specializes in COVID-19 coverage tweeted that it was “racist” to even talk about the Wuhan lab leak theory.

The lab leak issue has received a wave of attention following the Biden’s administration’s announcement that a 90 day investigation would be conducted into its veracity.

The NYT itself also reported yesterday that the U.S. intelligence community has been sitting on a “raft” of evidence pertaining to the Wuhan Institute of Virology.

However, Apoorva Mandavilli, who in her bio says she reports for the NYT “mainly” on COVID, asserted in a tweet that even discussing the issue was “racist.”

“Someday we will stop talking about the lab leak theory and maybe even admit its racist roots. But alas, that day is not yet here,” tweeted Mandavilli.

She faced immediate pushback and subsequently deleted the tweet.

“It damages the NYT’s reputation to have a key reporter on the most important story of the year say a valid news angle shouldn’t be discussed because it has “racist roots.” Aren’t they supposed to be in the news business?” asked Josh Barro.

“Oh my god: I didn’t realize what her job is,” remarked investigative journalist Glenn Greenwald. “Can someone explain to me why it’s racist to wonder if a virus escaped from a Chinese lab, but it’s not racist to insist that it infected humans because of Chinese wet markets? If anything, isn’t the latter more racist?” he asked.

For nearly a year, President Donald Trump was repeatedly smeared as a racist by the media merely for pointing out that the virus originated in China.

The World Health Organization also advised countries not to impose border controls in the early weeks of the pandemic so as to avoid the “stigmatization” of Chinese people.

This advice was taken by the British government, with Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s former chief adviser revealing earlier this week that Johnson didn’t want to shut down the border for fear of being labeled “racist.”

Apparently, not being called racist is more important than stopping a deadly pandemic or investigating the origin of where it came from.

END

Beijing claims that the COVID leaked from a Maryland military base is garbage

(zerohedge)

Beijing Doubles Down On Claims COVID Leaked From Maryland Military Base

 
FRIDAY, MAY 28, 2021 – 10:37 AM

President Biden’s decision to give intelligence agencies 90 days to determine the origins of the coronavirus, along with last night’s revelation that US intelligence agencies have been sitting on a massive pile of evidence suggesting that SARS-CoV-2 leaked from the Wuhan Institute of Virology, has prompted the CCP to fire up its propaganda machine.

In comments made Thursday, a top spokesman for China’s Foreign Ministry revived one of the CCP’s favorite false narratives from the early days of the outbreak: the notion that the virus was created in the US (not China), and was purposefully deployed by the American military to undermine Chinese society.

Speaking on Thursday, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian asked the White House to reflect on its own role in the pandemic and not “dump” responsibility on Beijing. He also demanded that Washington provide “an explanation” for a respiratory disease outbreak in northern Virginia, along with the outbreak of the “vaping disease”, which occurred shortly before the pandemic began, and has been used in Chinese media to spread uncertainty about the virus’s origins.

Citing the 33 million COVID-19 cases in the US and 600K deaths, Zhao asked “How safe is your conscience?”

But mostly, the comments focused on the “unexplained” disease in northern Virginia, and an unsubstantiated claim about a biolab at Maryland’s Fort Detrick, which has become a hot topic on China’s twitter-like Weibo. The wild claims are based on startling little evidence: the CDC issued a “cease and desist” order to halt operations at the lab over safety concerns. But that hasn’t stopped speculation (bolstered by government agents) from festering that the lab might have had something to do with the outbreak.

“I also want to emphasize that the Fort Detrick base is full of suspicions. There are more than 200 biological laboratories in the United States spreading around the world. How many secrets are there?”

Zhao’s comment comes after US President Joe Biden said on Wednesday that he was giving intelligence agencies 90 days to pinpoint the origins of Covid-19. Biden said his administration would continue to push China to “participate in a full, transparent, evidence-based international investigation and to provide access to all relevant data and evidence.”

Reinforcing a statement from the Chinese Embassy in Washington, DC on Wednesday evening, Zhao called on the US to stop “ignoring facts and science” and refrain from “repeatedly clamoring to reinvestigate China.”

While there’s no evidence to substantiate any of these theories, a report by WHO scientists that claimed the “lab leak” theory was possible but unlikely has been discredited in recent weeks, with the WHO promising to undertake another investigation of the virus’s origins.

Fortunately for Beijing, the CCP doesn’t need to rely solely on its official spokespeople to spread misleading narratives. Because just this week, a NYT reporter who has been tasked with covering the COVID-19 pandemic tweeted that it was “racist” to even talk about the Wuhan lab leak theory, despite the mounting evidence.

“Someday we will stop talking about the lab leak theory and maybe even admit its racist roots. But alas, that day is not yet here,” tweeted Mandavilli.

She faced immediate pushback and subsequently deleted the tweet, including the following comments from Glenn Greenwald: “Oh my god: I didn’t realize what her job is,” remarked investigative journalist Glenn Greenwald. “Can someone explain to me why it’s racist to wonder if a virus escaped from a Chinese lab, but it’s not racist to insist that it infected humans because of Chinese wet markets? If anything, isn’t the latter more racist?” he asked.

The CCP, on the other hand, is probably happy to signal-boost anyone accusing skeptics of being racist. Since they would prefer that the world just stop talking about the virus’s origins so we can move on from any talk of accountability for the government that allowed the worst pandemic in a century to escape its borders despite early warnings from scientists and doctors who were, in most cases, punished or silenced.

CHINA/
I have highlighted this story to you over the past year.  Here it is again: workers at the Wuhan lab got sick right around the time Covid escaped.  Patient zero:  Huang Yangli and per partner have been “disappeared” by Chinese authorities
(NaturalNews)

Smoking gun: Workers at Wuhan lab got sick right around time covid “escaped”

Image: Smoking gun: Workers at Wuhan lab got sick right around time covid “escaped”

Natural News) A previously undisclosed government document claims that three researchers from the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) who worked on the Wuhan coronavirus (Covid-19) became seriously ill in November 2019, right when the “pandemic” first started.

According to new mainstream media reports, these three individuals got so sick that they had to be rushed to the hospital for treatment. This, some say, suggests that the Chinese Virus “escaped” from the petri dish, so to speak, and infected those who were tampering with it to create a bioweapon.

These fresh details go beyond a State Department report that was released under former President Donald Trump that indicated Chinese lab workers fell ill in autumn 2019 “with symptoms consisted with both Covid-19 and common seasonal illness.”

It has now been revealed that three researchers fell ill specifically in November, and these details came forward right before a meeting of the World Health Organization (WHO) at which it was discussed what the next phase of the investigation into the origin of the virus will be.

Both current and former officials familiar with intelligence about the lab situation still have conflicting viewpoints as to the strength of this new assessment. One of them indicated that it is potentially significant, but that further investigation is needed to verify it.

Another feels as though the evidence is strong and of “exquisite quality.”

“It was very precise,” this person indicated. “What it didn’t tell you was exactly why they got sick.”

Communist China says Wuhan Flu originated at Fort Detrick military base in Maryland

The significance of the new report primarily centers around the date of when the three researchers got sick. November 2019 is considered by many epidemiologists and virologists to be when the plandemic was first launched and began to circulate around the central Chinese city of Wuhan.

The first reported case of the Wuhan Flu originated in Beijing where Chinese Communist Party (CCP) officials say a man got sick on Dec. 8, 2019. Just a few months later, the corporate media here in the West began warning about Chinese Virus cases coming to the United States via cruise ships.

Because the WIV was working with bat coronaviruses at the time, some have speculated that perhaps a genetically modified (GMO) variant “escaped” the level-four biosafety lab and ended up circulating in public. There is still no definitive proof of this, though, as the virus has still never even been fully isolated.

Communist China, meanwhile, is scoffing at the idea that the Chinese Virus originated in a Chinese laboratory. CCP officials claim that the U.S. “continues to hype the lab leak theory” without evidence.

“Is it actually concerned about tracing the source or trying to divert attention?” China’s foreign ministry stated about the U.S.

The Biden regime has thus far refused to comment on the new intelligence, though it has claimed that all technically credible theories about the origin of the virus should be investigated by the WHO and other international “experts.”

“We continue to have serious questions about the earliest days of the Covid-19 pandemic, including its origins within the People’s Republic of China,” a spokesman for the National Security Council is quoted as saying.

“We’re not going to make pronouncements that prejudge an ongoing WHO study into the source of SARS-CoV-2. As a matter of policy we never comment on intelligence issues.”

Communist China is also suggesting that the Chinese Virus actually originated at the Fort Detrick military base in Maryland, the state where Fauci lives. The regime is calling on the WHO to launch a full investigation into this theory as well.

More related news about the latest revelations concerning the Chinese Virus can be found at Pandemic.news.

Sources for this article include:

MSN.com

NaturalNews.com

 
end
 
CHINA VS USA
China ready to deter USA warmongering by expanding its nuclear arsenal. Must be music to their ears
(zerohedge)

China Ready To Deter “US Warmongering” By Expanding Nuclear Arsenal

 
FRIDAY, MAY 28, 2021 – 12:09 PM

At a moment that President Biden’s defense budget, the largest in history, is seeking to spend heavily on ‘China deterrence’ as well as nuclear funding to modernize America’s ageing Cold War era arsenal and systems – which many critics lambasted as a classic case of threat inflation in order to fatten the already bloated DoD budget (a yearly exercise) – Beijing has responded by warning it stands ready to in turn expand its own defenses and nuclear arsenal accordingly.

This apparent game of threat inflation begetting threat inflation, however, is about to have serious real world consequences in terms of dangerously beefed up nuke capabilities among the superpowers, with Chinese state-run English language mouthpiece Global Times issuing these alarming words on Friday:

“Facing a serious strategic threat from the US, China was urged to increase the number of nuclear weapons, especially its sea-based nuclear deterrent of intercontinental submarine-launched ballistic missiles, to deter potential military action by US warmongers, Chinese military experts said on Friday, after reports that the US’ new defense budget will modernize its nuclear arsenal to deter China,” GT wrote. 

So essentially the Communist-run newspaper is teasing a preview of what’s likely to come in response to the Pentagon shifting its strategic priorities to China and the Asia-Pacific region (and it should be noted… away from two-decades of Middle East quagmires in which Beijing could sit back and watch one US military ‘crisis’ after another unfold).

“Having a nuclear arsenal appropriate to China’s position will help safeguard national security, sovereignty and development interests and establish a more stable and peaceful world order, which will be beneficial for the world, they said,” GT continues. 

Since 2020 there’s been an array of official forecasts coming out of Washington’s own “defense experts” saying China is planning to double its current nuclear warhead stockpile over the next decade. Most current estimates range from 200 nukes in possession of China on the lower end to 300 or more, with over 600 projected for the near-future. This in comparison to the United States some 3,800 nuclear warheads, including a range of 800 ballistic missiles and aircraft capable of delivering them. 

Elsewhere in the column, GT suggests that by seeking to bolster its missile and radar capabilities off southeast Asia via friendly ‘partner countries’ the US and its regional allies are actually “burning themselves”. It’s here that the Beijing mouthpiece newspaper warns that any rapid expanse in Chinese nuclear capabilities will ultimately be the fault of Washington planners

Chinese analysts said China has never taken aim at US military spending, nor does China want to engage in any form of arms race with the US

But the US has applied greater military pressure on China, sending warships and warplanes at an increasing frequency to the South China Sea and Taiwan Straits.

The US is also preparing what US media called its “biggest navy exercise in a generation with 25,000 personnel across 17 time zones,” as it’s preparing for a “possible conflict” with China and Russia. 

The op-ed then goes on state the consequences of this current path of escalation to be potentially triggered by Congress passing the mammoth, China-centric defense budget – set to be taken up Friday. “Considering that the US deems China its top imaginary enemy, China needs to increase the quantity and quality of nuclear weapons, especially submarine-launched ballistic missiles, to effectively safeguard its national security, sovereignty and development interests, Song Zhongping, a Chinese military expert and TV commentator, told the Global Times on Friday,” GT continued.

And further: “Some military experts said China should increase the number of its most advanced intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM), the DF-41, which has the longest operational range among all Chinese ICBMs,” GT writes. This is to also include expanding plans for weaponizing space, and increasingly considering regional US partner countries like Australia, Japan, or even India to be threats to which China must react. 

Of interesting note in particular is the Chinese state outlet’s language and emphasis on the new Biden defense budget being based on a “top imaginary enemy”. 

It seems we’re in a situation (with echoes of the Cold War no doubt) of mutually contemplated rapid nuke and defense spending expansion being fueled on either side by assessing the “enemy” in a way that’s akin to gazing at carnival funhouse mirrors.

The US says “look at China, spend more!”… to which China says, “look at what the US is doing in reaction to us ‘appearing’ scary and threatening to them! let’s in turn spend more!”… on and on it goes, regardless of which “threat” or imagined appearance is the “real” one. And everything is distorted leading to self-projected and self-fulfilling prophesies in this ‘super power funhouse mirrors’ foreign policy carnival of threat inflation with very real disastrous consequences looming. 

 

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

EU/UK/SWITZERLAND

Switzerland walks out of a seven year treaty talks with the EU.  Smart people, they do want to have any close relationship with the bankrupt EU

(The Guardian/Boffey)

Switzerland walks out of seven-year treaty talks with EU

 

Swiss say terms unacceptable despite Brussels’ claims they are better than those offered to UK

Swiss and EU flags.
Berne rejected the jurisdiction of the European court of justice and a directive to offer resident status to EU citizens. Photograph: Arnd Wiegmann/Reuters
 
 in Brussels
Thu 27 May 2021 15.02 BST
 
 

 

Switzerland has walked out of talks on a closer trading relationship with the European Union despite being offered better terms than the UK in key areas, EU officials have claimed.

On Wednesday the country’s foreign minister, Ignazio Cassis, pulled the plug on long-running discussions with the EU, saying that Berne’s conditions were “not met”.

 

Switzerland, while outside the EU, is the bloc’s fourth biggest trading partner and its economy is closely integrated with those of the 27 member states. Citizens of Switzerland and the EU member states have a mutual right to free movement.

But the Swiss government claimed it could not accept the EU’s demands to maintain and deepen ties as they would be rejected in a legally required referendum on a deal.

The two sides have been in talks for seven years over a new framework that would overtake the 100-plus bilateral treaties that govern Swiss access to the single market, but which risk becoming outdated and hampering trade.

The negotiation collapsed due to Switzerland’s rejection of the jurisdiction of the European court of justice, and of a free movement directive that would offer permanent residence to EU citizens, with access to social security granted to non-employed residents such as job-seekers and students.

The European Commission has responded publicly by warning of a risk to the “privileged access” enjoyed by Switzerland to its markets. Behind the scenes, EU officials said they were not “hugely surprised” by decision from Berne, claiming that while Brussels had offered to commit “two or three days a week” to talks, the Swiss came “every fortnight to discuss things”.

But senior EU officials suggested they were left bemused by the attitude of the Swiss government over their demands for “dynamic alignment” with EU law, said to be necessary to ensure a “level playing field” for businesses on both sides.

“If you look at the areas where we wanted alignment with Switzerland, look at the content of the level playing field that we tried to put in place and compare it with that for the UK – while the Swiss have access to the internal market and the UK doesn’t, the level playing field aspect there is weaker,” one official said. “It was actually less than what we were demanding from the UK. Because that didn’t take account of the environment or taxation or social issues. It focused mainly on state aid.”

On Thursday, Cassis said parts of the Swiss economy would now need to prepare for disruption due to the risk of barriers to trade emerging as bilateral agreements failed to keep up with developments. Of immediate consequence is the expiration yesterday of regulatory permissions allowing Swiss-certified medical devices to be sold in the EU.

Cassis said: “There will of course be a readjustment situation on the part of certain sectors of the industry which will find themselves facing some difficulties to overcome. The federal council will do everything possible to give them a hand, but it is undeniable that it is an effort that the whole of Switzerland must make and not just politics.”

Both the Swiss government and the EU have rejected comparisons to Brexit. Some have described the potential fracturing of trade ties as a “Swexit”.

However, officials in Brussels said that Swiss suggestions, made since the walkout, that the country could align with some parts of EU law to maintain access to key sectors, were examples of “cherrypicking”, a phrase commonly used to describe British positions over the previous five years.

Georg Riekeles, an associate director of the European Policy Centre thinktank in Brussels, said the Swiss decision could prove expensive. “Many in Switzerland have failed to recognise that after Brexit their exorbitant privileges could no longer be,” he said. “The consequences of their denunciation will now be felt rather immediately. Bit by bit, the economies will decouple at a cost to Switzerland estimated at up to €1.2bn per year.”

 

 

 

 

end

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

BELARUS//RUSSIA/USA

none

RUSSIA/EU/BELARUS

none

 
 
 
 

end

6.Global Issues

CORONAVIRUS UPDATE/VACCINE//Australia

Australia imposes its 4th COVID lockdown as another Melbourne cluster found

Australia Imposes 4th COVID Lockdown On Melbourne As New Cluster Found

 
THURSDAY, MAY 27, 2021 – 07:40 PM

Despite essentially cutting off all international travel in an attempt to “raise the drawbridge” and keep out COVID-19 after mostly purging it from their society, Australia is entering its fourth COVID-inspired lockdown in Melbourne, the country’s second-largest city. The lockdown began Thursday and was set to remain in place for a week for Melbourne and the rest of Victoria state after a new cluster of cases was uncovered, yielding 26 new infections, including one person who was sent to intensive care, the AP reports.

Another 10K people have reportedly had some form of contact with those infected.

“Unless something changes, this will be increasingly uncontrollable,” Victoria Acting Premier James Merlino said.

Australia’s federal government declared Melbourne a hot spot, allowing the city to tap additional federal resources. PM Scott Morrison said 218 military personnel would be dispatched to Victoria to help administer vaccine doses to the population. Additional doses have been sent to Victoria, where only 3.9MM doses have been administered so far among a population of 26MM.

Health Minister Greg Hunt described the lockdown, which begins at midnight, as “highly regrettable, but necessary restrictions under the current circumstances.”

Under the terms of the strict lockdown, people will only be able to leave home to shop for food and essential items, provide or receive care, exercise, work or study if they are unable to do so from home, and to get vaccinated. Masks will be compulsory indoors and outdoors.

Cafes and restaurants will only be able to sell takeout, and schools will close once again, reverting to all-remote instruction for the duration of the lockdown. Professional sports events in Melbourne will continue, but crowds won’t be allowed.

Raising the sense of alarm, Australian authorities said the variant that caused the latest outbreak is the same one first identified in Inda, which has made its way across Europe and the US by now. Australia’s Chief Medical Officer Paul Kelly confirmed that it was the Indian variant designated as a “variant of concern” by the WHO.

The new Melbourne cluster was found after a traveler from India became infected while in hotel quarantine in South Australia state earlier this month. The traveler was not diagnosed until he returned home from Adelaide to Melbourne.

The city of 5MM people became Australia’s biggest hot spot for the first time last year when infections peaked at 725 new cases in a single day in August at a time when community spread had been virtually eliminated elsewhere in the country.

end

German scientist discovers what we have been pounding the table on: what causes rare blood clotting in

AZ jab recipients.

(zerohedge) 

German Scientist Discovers What Causes Rare Blood Clots In Some AstraZeneca Jab Recipients

 
FRIDAY, MAY 28, 2021 – 05:45 AM

A German scientist may have found a solution to one of the biggest problems plaguing the global vaccine rollout: the rare but sometimes deadly blood clots seen in some vaccinated patients who received the AstraZeneca-Oxford jab. A team of scientists in Germany believes it has pinpointed the cause of these blood clots, which can be eliminated with a relatively easy tweak.

According to the FT, Rolf Marschalek, a professor at Goethe University in Frankfurt who has been leading studies into the rare condition since March, said his research showed the problem was related to the adenovirus vectors that both the AstraZeneca vaccine and the J&J vaccine use to deliver the genetic instructions for the spike protein of the Sars-Cov-2 virus into the body. 

Here’s how Marschalek explained it to the FT.

The delivery mechanism means the vaccines send the DNA gene sequences of the spike protein into the cell nucleus rather than the cytosol fluid found inside the cell where the virus normally produces proteins, Marschalek and other scientists said in a preprint paper released on Wednesday. Once inside the cell nucleus, certain parts of the spike protein DNA are spliced, or split apart, creating mutant versions, which are unable to bind to the cell membrane where important immunisation takes place. The floating mutant proteins are instead secreted by cells into the body, triggering blood clots in roughly one in 100,000 people, according to Marschalek’s theory. In contrast, mRNA-based vaccines, such as the jabs developed by BioNTech/Pfizer and Moderna, deliver the spike’s genetic material to the cell fluid and it never enters the nucleus. “When these . . . virus genes are in the nucleus they can create some problems,” Marschalek told the Financial Times.

On the other hand, the mRNA-based vaccines like those developed by BioNTech/Pfizer and Moderna, deliver the spike’s genetic material to the cell fluid and it never enters the nucleus. “When these…virus genes are in the nucleus they can create some problems,” Marschalek told the Financial Times.

The rare blood-clotting reaction has disrupted the rollout of the AstraZeneca and J&J shots in the UK, where officials recorded 309 cases of clots out of 33MM people who have received the AstraZeneca vaccine (Ultimately these caused 56 deaths), and in Europe, where at least 142 people have experienced the blood clots out of 16MM recipients of the vaccine.

Use of the AstraZeneca jab has been restricted or suspended in more than a dozen countries. J&J began the rollout of its vaccine in Europe by including a warning label on its jabs noting the possibility of blood clots.

Marschalek has already presented his lab findings to the German government’s Paul-Ehrlich Institute as well as to the advisory body on vaccination and immunization.

However, at least one rival scientists has raised questions about Marschalek’s process.

“There is evidence missing to show the causal chain from the splice….of the spike protein to the thrombosis events,” said Johannes Oldenburg, professor of transfusion medicine at the university of Bonn. “This is still a hypothesis that needs to be proven by experimental data.”

Fortunately, Marschalek believes there is a straightforward “way out” for AstraZeneca and J&J if they can modify the gene sequence that codes for the spike protein. If the vaccine developers can modify this to prevent it from splitting apart, they might be able to eliminate the risk of blood clots altogether.

J&J has already contacted Marschalek’s lab and has reportedly asked for guidance as it attempts to modify the vaccine. However, rival scientists have insisted that more research might be needed.

end

Scary@!!!

Robert h to me:

They Are Telling Us The Plan: A Future Virus “More Deadly” Than COVID Is Coming

 

 
 
 
 
 
Is the a forewarning? The morons have destroyed bond markets in Europe with low rates  and Covid lockdowns have shattered economies. Some has to pay, but with what? Governments cannot spend indefinitely without consequences. I suppose they will blame Covid as politicians never accept blame.
So what a new scare to keep people afraid? While inept politicians tinker with economies without a clue of what makes a business run dreaming of changing the world to run without oil while the world is undergoing a solar minimum. Can you fathom what can go wrong ?
A rudderless world steaming into an unknown future and we are to believe all is well. Count the life rafts, because everyone will not be saved from the wrenching economies and consequently the public will endure to move forward.
And yes, the world will move forward as the sun rises on the dawn of a new tomorrow and rebuild. Only the world will move forward because of human nature and not because parties try to force an agenda without understanding. History can be cruel to such parties. The rest of us need to stay positive and be prepared to accept changes with a eye to where realities exist and ignore the noise.

 

https://www.shtfplan.com/headline-news/they-are-telling-us-the-plan-a-future-virus-more-deadly-than-covid-is-coming

Cheers
Robert

end

SWEDEN//

Sweden goes from one of the safest countries in Europe to the 2nd most dangerous due to the migrants

(Watson/SummitNews)

Sweden Goes From Being One Of The Safest Countries In Europe To The Second Most Dangerous

 
FRIDAY, MAY 28, 2021 – 03:30 AM

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

A new investigation finds that Sweden has gone from being one of the safest European countries 20 years ago in terms of gun crime to the second most dangerous.

The study, published by the country’s National Council on Crime Prevention (Brå), reveals that Sweden is the only country on the continent where shootings have increased substantially since the start of the century.

Most of the fatal shootings in Sweden (around 80 percent) had a link to organised crime, according to the study, a proportion which had risen from 30 to 50 percent in the early 2000s and less than 20 percent in the 1990s. Brå also compared the proportion to other countries: around 60 percent of fatal shootings were linked to organised crime in the Netherlands, while in Finland such events were extremely rare,” reports The Local.

After having been ranked 18th out of 22 countries for gun crime from 2000 to 2003, Sweden now ranks in second place, behind only Croatia.

Authorities appear to be baffled at the cause of the increase, blaming it on “illegal drugs trade, conflicts within organised crime networks, and low levels of trust in the police.”

“The increased gun violence in Sweden is unique in comparison with most other countries in Europe, and there are no clear explanations for that,” said Håkan Jarborg, a police chief in southern Sweden.

In a country where criticizing mass immigration is basically a thought crime, no consideration is even afforded to the possibility that the large number of Muslim migrants the country has absorbed over the last two decades could be a factor.

A 2018 report found that 99 out of 112 gang rapists had a foreign background.

When veteran Swedish police investigator Peter Springare was asked about the demographics of those responsible for violent crimes, he didn’t mince his words.

“Here we go; this is what I’ve handled from Monday-Friday this week: rape, rape, robbery, aggravated assault, rape-assault and rape, extortion, blackmail, assault, violence against police, threats to police, drug crime, drugs, crime, felony, attempted murder, rape again, extortion again and ill-treatment,” he wrote.

“Suspected perpetrators; Ali Mohammed, Mahmod, Mohammed, Mohammed Ali, again, again, again. Christopher… what, is it true? Yes, a Swedish name snuck in on the edges of a drug crime. Mohammed, Mahmod Ali, again and again,” he added.

Springare then listed the suspects’ countries of origin.

“Countries representing all the crimes this week: Iraq, Iraq, Turkey, Syria, Afghanistan, Somalia, Somalia, Syria again, Somalia, unknown, unknown country, Sweden. Half of the suspects, we can’t be sure because they don’t have any valid papers. Which in itself usually means that they’re lying about their nationality and identity.”

In 2017, the global media began attacking President Donald Trump for pointing out Sweden was having big problems with migrant crime due to open borders, yet Trump has been proven right time and time again.

In 2019, the media was forced to admit that the alarming number of grenade attacks and explosions in Sweden represented a “national emergency.”

“Import war zones, become war zone. This isn’t complicated,” commented one respondent on Twitter.

*  *  *

END

*  *  *

Michael Every and Bill Blain on the days most important topics

(courtesy Michael Every and then Bill Blain

The Six Trillion Dollar Man

 
FRIDAY, MAY 28, 2021 – 10:14 AM

By Michael Every of Rabobank

The Six Trillion Dollar Man / The Fall Guy

Oscar Goldman (Sachs): “Joe Biden, President: a man barely alive. Gentlemen, we can rebuild him. We have the technology. We have the capability to make the world’s first bionic man. Joe Biden will be that man. Better than he was before. Better, Stronger, Faster. And much Greener.”

The above in an updated version of the intro of the TV show ‘The Six Million Dollar Man’, starring Lee Majors, which ran from 1974-78. At that time, USD6m was enough to build an Elon Musk-style superhero: now it doesn’t even buy an Elon Musk-style house. And today US President Biden will propose the next US federal budget (at 13:30 New York Time, just ahead of a three-day weekend): and it will contain $6 trillion in spending, making him the Six Trillion Dollar Man.

To put this in a context other than schlocky TV, the last CBO projection from February said the US was set to spend USD5.7 trillion in fiscal 2021 – although that was before the recent passage of the one-off USD1.9 trillion Covid-19 stimulus package. Considering we all hope the US economy has re-opened by October, when the next budget kicks in, this is a huge step-up from the pre-Covid level of spending. Indeed, the budget would boost federal spending by 5% above the 2021 projected level, and spending will keep rising to reach USD8.2 trillion by end-2031. At the same time, federal debt will exceed the historical peak seen at the end of WW2 within just a few years –despite the war against the virus being over– and hit 117% of GDP by end-2031, versus around 100% of GDP now.

Back in 1974, when ‘The Six Million Dollar Man’ was first on TV, the federal spend was USD320bn, and US public debt 30.8% of GDP. When the show went off TV in 1978, the figures were USD486bn and 31.9%, respectively.

A few observations can be made without the need for a bionic eye:

  • This obviously encompasses the multi-trillion dollar (man) packages already flying around DC, from infrastructure to,…infrastructure, given almost everything is now classified as such;

  • This is unlikely to pass Congress in the present form without reconciliation, and even then we know moderate Democratic senators such as Manchin may prove an obstacle;

  • Republicans are willing to meet the White House on infrastructure spending, up to almost USD1 trillion, providing there is less inflation in the use of the term;

  • If one was wondering if the inflation surge we have been experiencing is over or not, then the market answer is probably not, if more stimulus is seen. The Budget apparently argues that US CPI inflation will not go above 2.3% in any year ahead despite all this extra spending: but how could it argue otherwise? Let’s see what markets will make of it – and could the Fed still say inflation is “transitory” against that kind of public demand backdrop? Relatedly, with many states having now rolled back their supplementary USD300 per week unemployment benefits, weekly initial jobless claims unsurprisingly showed a hefty drop yesterday; and

  • Supply chain pressures are not going to be eased by a further US demand surge. The cost for shipping a container from Rotterdam to Shanghai just moved to over USD10,000, up 485% y/y(!) Factor in an ongoing rise in US public spending on the ground at US ports, or one ring-fenced for ‘Made in America’ at a time when so little actually is, and imagine what supply chains and cost-push inflation might look like.

On the latter front, President Biden yesterday also announced he would take measures to “combat supply-chain pressures” in the next few weeks. But how, exactly? An executive order to bring key US industries back from China, or at least to relocate them nearer to home in Central America and Mexico? Highly unlikely as that is, such a step would at least be logically consistent with the message sent out by Kurt Campbell, the US coordinator for Indo-Pacific affairs on the National Security Council, who yesterday stated: “The period that was broadly described as engagement has come to an end,” and US policy toward China will now operate under a “new set of strategic parameters,” where “the dominant paradigm is going to be competition. The competition seems primarily in heated rhetoric so far, from the US side so far, however.

But more than words can fly – and research argues China could soon out-gun the US military. The linked report claims the annual USD value of PLA procurement is on course to eclipse that of the US military as soon as 2024, well within the time period of the budget path President Biden is to propose today. Indicatively, in 2000, US procurement was 6.67 times the PLA’s by value; by 2019, it was only 1.42 times greater; and by 2024 PLA procurement is projected to exceed that of the US. On that basis, “by about 2030 the US will no longer boast the world’s most advanced fighting force in total inventory value.” That is what happens when one side focuses on supply chains, and on production, and the other doesn’t focus on supply chains, and on consumption. Just imagine what US federal spending will have to look like to try to stop this trend from developing – and what the geopolitical and geostrategic consequences will be if it doesn’t. These issues, uncomfortable as they are for markets, are not going to be “transitory” for as long as realpolitik exists.

Back to the analogy of real schlocky TV though. The next hit series for Lee Majors after ‘The Six Million Dollar Man’ was the car-off-a-cliff-plane-into-a-warehouse-jump-off-a-bridge-face-into-a-bale-of-hay tale of an unknown LA stuntman, ‘The Fall Guy’, which ran from 1981-86. Back in 1981, US federal spending was USD709bn and public debt was 31.4%, and in 1986 the figures were USD1.03 trillion and 47.6%, respectively. But that debt surge was at least the start of the US winning the last Cold War.  

On which, as flagged in the Daily yesterday, Europe not only faces cost difficulties in shipping its goods east, it faces practical difficulties in flying east. Russia has made clear that EU flights to Moscow which avoid Belarus will not be able to use its airspace as an alternative. Hence either Brussels gives in to Minsk and Moscow, or Minsk and Moscow become much further away in real as well as political terms. Eff

Both excellent commentariesectively, we would be going back a century to the era of train travel – which takes around 41 hours. So who is ultimately going to be ‘The Fall Guy’ if this trend continues?

Happy Friday!

end

Blain: What Comes Next (After The “Rosy Spending Orgy” Ends)?

 
FRIDAY, MAY 28, 2021 – 09:08 AM

Authored by Bill Blain via MorningPorridge.com,

For on one side lay Scylla and on the other divine Charybdis terribly sucked down the salt water of the sea.”

Nothing to worry about… except Pandemic, Bonds, Inflation or Deflation, Record Container Prices and Geopolitics? Is there any chance of compromise and a deal on the US infrastructure package everyone agrees is necessary – or will it sink into the partisan swamp? And Cathie Wood talks up her investment strategies – but what’s the substance behind the leading Zeitgeist Investor?

It’s been a “digestive” kind of week in market… Among other things figuring out the how, if and when of possible new coronavirus threats, and if mutations and panics could trigger new lockdowns. As we watched the sun go down from the yacht club veranda while yesterday’s glorious summer came to its end, we were calculating the odds of whether the lad’s ski-trip in Feb 2022 will actually happen!  Hope so.

But there is plenty else to ponder.

The fact container prices from Asia to Europe topped $10k for the first time ever – is that a sign of resurgent, sustained long-term demand, or is the repressed post-pandemic spending going to prove temporary?

There are an increasing number of analysts bought into the theory the current inflationary blip will be temporary as repressed spending is balanced by stretched savings, unsustainable leverage, and job fears as the real scale of the pandemic damage to SME balance sheets becomes apparent. Despite the loans, furloughs, and bailouts – many companies are struggling. The apparent rosy spending orgy may not last long.

We are still balanced betwixt Inflation and Deflation..

And then there is the bond market. If we are headed for inflation and a taper then just how much pain will a screaming bond market (screaming in agony as rates crush prices), inflict on other financial asset market? Clue: lots. Lots! And if bond markets collapse – then you can bet the right-wing monetarists hidden among us will be heaping the blame on the god-damn communists in Washington, Downing Street and Frankfurt for debasing currencies through reckless fiscal carpet bombing.

Or how about widening geopolitical fault-lines. Earlier this week I was pondering on whether the rumoured accidental release of Covid from a Wuhan lab might trigger China push-back. Biden has now instructed the CIA to report on the matter. The Chinese are screaming its already a “dodgy-dossier” – if you don’t know the reference, it’s the reason you should count your fingers afterwards if you ever meet Tony Blair. Meanwhile, Beijing has solved problematic Hong Kong elections by declaring the winners ahead of any vote.

The other side of the China vs US face-off is the realisation both are essentially market driven economies… they just do it differently. I suspect many smart fund heads are wondering how to play it neutral, hedging downside risks in one bloc against the upside of the other, all without offending the plethora of ESG, CSR, Sustainability and Social Justice mandates that now dominate investment decisions in the West….

Meanwhile… back on the Range..

Is the US crawling towards a possible-partisan agreement on infrastructure spending? If it is, then the prospects for the US dramatically improve – with knock on effects around the global economy. The Republicans have countered Biden’s $1.7 bln plans with a $982 bln counter-package. To say there remain “vast differences between the White House and Republicans” would be an understatement – but anything that looks less polarized is positive.

Over the past couple of days I’ve been having a fascinating email debate with a great mate of mine. He’s a very successful alternative asset manager.  He’s also a Republican – which doesn’t necessarily make him a bad person. Although Trump dominates the party, not every Republican is a Trump aficionado – they just can’t say it.

At least they are having the debate on just how much to spend on recovery, and the fiscal consequences that may emerge. Its not a debate being heard in Europe or the UK to any real extent. (Ok, the Germans are getting a tad concerned about German tax-payers funding Italian pensions and creating massive inflation in Draghi’s spending plan’s wake – but, fear-not! Germans are good Europeans.. for now..)

Broadly the US argument revolves around the number of US firms abandoning Democrat states like California in favour of low tax states like Texas that remain corporate friendly. It’s a fact Democrat run states tend to have higher unemployment and higher taxes. According to my mate that’s prima facie evidence the Democrats can’t be trusted to run the US economy, and are proven incompetents. That’s pretty mild polarisation compared to what passes for political debate in the US these days.

Many states are struggling to balances taxes, spending and growth. Central government vs regional spending is a fault line in most modern economies. When it comes to the US, it’s a factor driven by the evolution of US economy – the big cities evolving from manufacturing into services, and more recent factors driving greater inequality and raising the need for more expensive social services.

For instance, I reckon the social problems in San Francisco have been accelerated by the costs of housing being driven up by the tech industry. Distorted ultra-low interest rates have fuelled tech valuations, allowing over-valued start-ups to pay massive salaries, driving up the cost of SF accommodation to insane levels, pushing out the bulk of service workers in low paid service sectors. Just saying – monetary distortions have consequences… not just on markets.

Balance these states against the “frontier capitalism” of Texas et al. They compete for jobs on the basis of low taxes and business friendly corporate laws. It clearly works for them. Entrepreneurs can put their businesses up for a bid to see which states are prepared to host them for the least. Everyone from Tesla, Apple, HP and Planatir has moved business units on to the Texican scrub. It sort of makes sense – a firm that makes a $1000 distributal profit will end paying nearly $700 in Federal and State corporate, dividend and capital gains taxes in California. (Most of it is Federal.)

Most Europeans scratch their heads understanding why US states compete against each other like that. Surely the country would be stronger if they worked together? Don’t even go there… competition and states rights.. etc..

I hazarded the view that’s it’s the success of the US that’s the reason for the increasing negative social issues in America’s large cities. I am not advocating communism – just that the USA solves the issues created by success. Spread the love. Inequality and lack of opportunity ultimately sucks for everyone.

And…. Step up to the block; Cathie Wood

Even as Central Bankers around the globe put the boot into Crypto we’ve got Cathie Wood of ARKK on the wires reassuring investors Bitcoin is here to stay. She still reckons Bitcoin is good for the environment because it will focus miners to get their power from green sources. I must be missing something there, because if miners use the green energy everyone else wants, that will push up its price meaning more green energy will be produced – perhaps, but until it is, let’s just burn another mountain of extra coal?

This morning on Bloomberg Businessweek there is a must-read piece on Cathie: Cathie Wood’s Bad Spring is Only a Blip When the Future is So Magnificent.

It’s a great read – and you know what. I agree with her. The world is changing. New Tech is going to make it much, much, much better. I buy into 3D, Space, Gene therapy, and the rest, just not digital currencies.

The thing is. They are going to happen. But not at the pace or in the fashion Wood expects. The history of business is constant evolution driven by the forces of the market and money. Everyone loves innovation, but the firms that have great ideas don’t necessarily succeed. Ford was not a first mover, but found how to make profits and sell more cars. The Wright Brothers were first movers, but became a minor engine maker. The Brits pioneered the Jet Airliner and never made a cent from it. The trick is not just finding innovators, but finding the winning innovator! That is really hard work.

What Wood has successfully done is become the figure head of the Age of Zeitgeist Investment – making lots of money the easy way. Her crew (described in the article) and herself see the future as disruptive and innovative and it’s all terribly exciting.

The reality is very different. Understanding ultimate winners and losers is hard. It’s not about getting excited. Growth and neat solutions to as yet undiscovered or comparatively minor problems are just part of the equation alongside money and profits. The Tech industry is no different from anything else – trends matter, but it’s about what companies are going to succeed and pay decent returns….

That’s not what Cathie Wood’s multi-billion dollar ETF’s do – she sells a dream of tech riches, not the hard work in making them…

Here ends today’s rant.

end

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

INDIA//CORONAVIRUS UPDATE/VACCINE UPDATE
 
NONE
 
 
END

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings FRIDAY  morning 7:30 AM….

Euro/USA 1.2142 DOWN .0050 /EUROPE BOURSES /ALL GREEN   

USA/ YEN 110.07 UP 0.256 /NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.4156  DOWN   0.0047  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/

USA/CAN 1.2117  UP .0048

 

Early THIS  FRIDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL BY 50 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.2142 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 8.07 PTS OR 0.22% 

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 11.21 PTS OR 0.04%

 

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 1.09% // EUROPEAN BOURSES OPENED ALL GREEN

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES CLOSED ALL GREEN   

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 11.21 PTS OR 0.04%

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 8.07 PTS OR 0.22% 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP 1.09%

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 600.40 PTS OR 2.10%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1885.25

silver:$27.44-

Early FRIDAY morning USA 10 year bond yr: 1.612% !!! UP 1 IN POINTS from THURSDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

The 30 yr bond yield 2.287 UP 1  IN BASIS POINTS from THURSDAY night.

USA dollar index early FRIDAY morning: 90.37  UP 40 CENT(S) from THURSDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers FRIDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing  FRIDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.47% DOWN 1  in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.076%  UP 0/10   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.47%//  DOWN 1 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:  0.92 DOWN  2   points in basis points yield from yesterday./

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 45 points higher than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.183% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.10% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR  FRIDAY

Closing currency crosses for FRIDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.2193  DOWN     .0001 or 1 basis points

USA/Japan: 109.88  UP .061 OR YEN DOWN 6  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.4188 DOWN .0014 POUND DOWN 14  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 11 basis points to 1.2082

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The USA/Yuan,  CNY: closed    ON SHORE  (UP).. 6.3684

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN UP)..6.3654

TURKISH LIRA:  8.57  EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.076%

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 1 IN basis points from THURSDAY at 1.595 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.270 DOWN 2 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 90.07  UP 10  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for FRIDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 8.92 PTS OR 0.22% 

 

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 111.99 PTS OR 0.73% 

 

Paris CAC CLOSED UP 48.96  PTS OR 0.76% 

 

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 42.32  PTS OR  0.46%

 

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 118.37 PTS OR 0.47% 

 

WTI Oil price; 66.99 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 69.32 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE RISES:    73.26  THE CROSS  LOWER BY 0.19 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE HIGHER BY 19 BASIS PTS)

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.183 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM : 66.62//

BRENT :  68.98

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 1.584..DOWN 2 basis points…

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.264 DOWN 2 basis points..

EURO/USA 1.2194 (UP 4   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:109.83 UP .024 (YEN DOWN 2 BASIS POINTS/..

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 9057 UP 8  cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.4191 DOWN 11  POINTS

the Turkish lira close: 8.494

the Russian rouble 73.24   UP 0.27 Roubles against the uSA dollar. (UP 27 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.2078  DOWN 7 BASIS pts

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.179%

The Dow closed UP  81.18 POINTS OR 0.24%

NASDAQ closed UP 28.67 POINTS OR 0.21%


VOLATILITY INDEX:  16.31 CLOSED DOWN  0.43

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 0.134%//libor dropping like a stone

USA trading day in Graph Form

Bullion Best In May As Tech Wrecks; Bitcoin’s Biggest Bust In A Decade

 
FRIDAY, MAY 28, 2021 – 04:00 PM

Well that was a different month – bonds were bid, big-tech dumped (as Meme stocks soared), crypto puked along with the dollar but bullion was best bid.

Is it time to cut the dollar’s rope?

Nasdaq dropped in May – its biggest monthly drop since October (even after its big comeback from mid-month). Trannies outperformed (up for the 4th straight month)…

Source: Bloomberg

Small Caps led this week, just outperforming Nasdaq; as the Dow lagged.NOTE the action very much concentrated around the open every day…

FANG Stocks closed lower in May, biggest monthly drop since September

Source: Bloomberg

Meme stocks soared in May – the biggest jump since January’s chaos…

Source: Bloomberg

Bonds were bid on the month with the belly outperforming (7Y -5bps)…

Source: Bloomberg

Amid a chaotic month (the payrolls plunge), 10Y yields ended the month back below 1.60%…

Source: Bloomberg

And while real yields pushed lower (more negative) again in May, gold is signaling they have further to fall…

Source: Bloomberg

The Dollar was down for the second straight month, ending May with its lowest monthly close since 2014

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin crashed 37% in May – its worst month since 2011. Ethereum was the least bad horse in the crypto glue factory, falling less than 10% on the month..

Source: Bloomberg

Despite lots of vol, ETH dramatically outperformed BTC for the second straight month…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin was unable to reclaim $40k and closed below the 200DMA once again…

Source: Bloomberg

Commodities were broadly speaking higher in May, up for the 11th month of the last 13

Source: Bloomberg

Silver’s best month since Dec, Gold’s best month since July, Crude and Copper also up over 4% on the month…

Source: Bloomberg

Spot Gold closed back above $1900 extending gains off the $1700 double-bottom…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, have a great Memorial Day… with the most expensive gas in 7 years…

Source: Bloomberg

And as inflation soars, production disappoints… Can anyone say “Stagflation”?

Source: Bloomberg

And this just made us laugh… while sobbing…

 

END

a)Market trading/THIS MORNING/USA

afternoon trading

 
 
ii) Market data

USA

Prices are rising at their fastest pace, incomes are plummeting but spending rising a bit until their stimmies run out

PCE deflator which is negative to GDP calculations rises to 3.6%

(zerohedge)

Fed’s “Favorite” Inflation Indicator Explodes At Fastest Rate Since 1992 As Incomes Crash By Record

 
FRIDAY, MAY 28, 2021 – 08:39 AM

While Americans’ income and spending is normally the headline-making data, this morning’s release will focus all eyes on The Fed’s favorite inflation indicator – the PCE Deflator.

The headline PCE Deflator rose 3.6% YoY, the fastest rate or price increases since 2008.

Even more notably, the Core PCE Deflator soared 3.1% YoY (hotter than the +2.9% YoY expected) and the hottest print since May 1992…

Source: Bloomberg

With the highest MoM rise in the core deflator since 9/11…

Source: Bloomberg

However, back in income and spending land, the picture was very mixed withincomes crashing 13.1% MoM and spending rising just 0.5% MoM after the stimmies run dry …

Source: Bloomberg

That is the biggest MoM crash in incomes ever which sent the savings rate plunging...

Source: Bloomberg

The consumer buffer is almost gone: personal savings rate plunges by 50% as Americans do what they do best: spend their savings.

So – let’s summarize – prices are rising at their fastest pace in almost 30 years and incomes just plunged by their most ever!

We’re gonna need more stimmies!

end

Consumer sentiment falls as record number of Americans are fearing (and correctly so) soaring prices

(zerohedge)

UMich Sentiment Slides As Record Number Of Americans Fear Soaring Prices

 
FRIDAY, MAY 28, 2021 – 10:09 AM

The disappointing plunge in ‘hope’ from The Conference Board’s survey of consumer sentiment was echoed in the UMich sentiment survey as the headline slipped from 88.3 to 82.9 (and slightly below the preliminary data). Both current and expectations indices also tumbled, and all are still well below pre-pandemic levels…

Source: Bloomberg

As stimmies stall (see income collapse this morning), so buying conditions have also plunged…

Source: Bloomberg

And no drop is more significant than the crash in homebuying optimism (relative to record high homebuilder optimism).

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, we note the final May print for inflation expectations soared to 3.6% in the next 12 months, the hottest since 2008…

Source: Bloomberg

Record proportions of consumers reported higher prices across a wide range of discretionary purchases, including homes, vehicles, and household durables – the average change in May vastly exceeds all prior monthly changes

UMich Director Richard Curtin has fully jumped on the transitory bandwagon…

While higher inflation will diminish real incomes, the gains in spending will nonetheless be substantial. The key issue is whether the timing of spending decisions will advance due to the expected price increases. At present the growth in inflationary psychology is unlikely, but it cannot be completely dismissed. Early preventative actions are much less costly, but these actions are much more difficult when policy objectives include avoiding uneven distributional impacts across population subgroups. It will require keeping the level of stimulus higher for a longer period than would have seemed prudent in the past. The primary risk of this strategy is an accelerating inflation rate, which also has uneven distributional impacts. Shifting policy language and a small rate increase could douse inflationary psychology; it would be no surprise to consumers, as two-thirds already expect higher interest rates in the year ahead.

end

U.S. trade deficit in goods narrows in April from record in prior month

May 28, 2021 at 8:38 a.m. ET

MarketWatch

 

The numbers: The U.S. trade deficit in goods narrowed 7.3% in April, according to the Commerce Department’s advanced estimate released Friday.

The deficit narrowed to $85.2 billion from a record $92 billion in March.

Economists polled by Econoday were looking to a $91 billion deficit.

The report also showed a 0.8% gain in wholesale inventories while retail inventories were down 1.6%. Excluding autos, retail inventories were up 0.5%.

Big picture: The international trade gap remains wide due to the strong economy that is getting stoked by U.S. fiscal stimulus. The trade deficit is expected to continue to be a drag on U.S. GDP growth this year. Shipping delays caused by congestions at U.S. ports, especially on the West Coast, weighed on trade in the past year, analysts said.

What happened: Exports picked up in April while imports slipped.

There were gains in exports of capital goods and industrial supplies that were partially offset by a decline in autos.

The U.S. imported fewer cars and consumer goods in April than in the prior month.

-END-

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

Interesting!! 15 state treasurers are warning that they will pull assets away form banks that obstruct the fossil fuels industry

Allegi/EpochTimes

15 State Treasurers Warn They Will Pull Assets From Banks That Obstruct the Fossil Fuel Industry

 
THURSDAY, MAY 27, 2021 – 06:40 PM

Authored by Samuel Allegri via The Epoch Times,

Fifteen Republican State Treasurers sent a warning that they will pull assets from financial institutions if they give in to Federal pressure to de-carbonize and “refuse to lend to or invest in” the fossil fuel and coal industry.

Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry speaks during a press briefing at the White House in Washington on Jan. 27, 2021. (Drew Angerer/Getty Images)

The letter (pdf), led by West Virginia Treasurer Riley Moore, is directed at Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry. It expresses concerns over reports that Kerry and other members of the Biden administration have been “privately pressuring” U.S. banks to stifle the fossil fuel industry.

“We are writing today to express our deep concern with recent reports that you, and other members of the Biden Administration, are privately pressuring U.S. banks and financial institutions to refuse to lend to or invest in coal, oil, and natural gas companies, as part of a misguided strategy to eliminate the fossil fuel industry in our country,” the letter reads.

The State Treasurers sent a plain message to financial institutions, telling them not to submit to the present administration’s coercion to deny investment and lending for the natural resources.

Furthermore, they assert that the approaches will “discriminate against law-abiding U.S. energy companies and their employees, impede economic growth, and drive up consumer costs,” adding that the strategy in question would make the free market submit to the will of politicians.

The signees of the letter are representing collectively more than $600 billion in assets, according to Axios.

They are backing some of the largest fossil fuel producers in the country.

“As a collective, we strongly oppose command-and-control economic policies that attempt to bend the free market to the political will of government officials,” they write.

It is simply antithetical to our nation’s position as a democracy and a capitalist economy for the Executive Branch to bully corporations into curtailing legal activities. The Biden Administration’s top-down tactics of picking economic winners and losers deprives the real determinate group in our society—the people—of essential choice and agency. We refuse to allow the federal government to pick our critical industries as losers, based purely on President Biden’s own radical political preferences and ideologies.”

The Obama administration’s previous conflict with American coal and natural gas industries is mentioned as an attack on jobs, tax revenue, and health insurance provided to families across the country, specifically hard-working middle-class families.

“As the chief financial officers of our respective states, we entrust banks and financial institutions with billions of our taxpayers’ dollars. It is only logical that we will give significant weight to the fact that an institution engaged in tactics that will harm the people whose money they are handling before entering into or extending any contract,” they warned.

The Epoch Times reached out to the White House for comment.

END

No evidence of natural origin is correct

(zerohedge)

US Sitting On ‘Raft’ Of Unexamined Virus Intel; Former Official Says ‘Almost No Evidence’ Of Natural Origin

 
THURSDAY, MAY 27, 2021 – 11:40 PM

Hours after President Biden promised to release the ‘full report’ from US Intelligence community’s 90-day examination of where COVID-19 originated – unless there’s something he’s unaware of

…the New York Times reports, there’s things he’s unaware of.

Namely, ‘raft of still-unexamined evidence that required additional computer analysis that might shed light on the mystery,” according to anonymous senior administration officials.

In other words, the US government has been sitting on a large collection of intelligence in perhaps the most important investigation into an economy-wrecking global pandemic, as China destroyed evidence and has refused to cooperate with international probes. According to the report, Biden’s call for the new investigation was in response to the ‘new’ evidence.

While officials declined to describe the new evidence, they are hoping to apply ‘an extraordinary amount of computer power’ to analyze what the Times speculates may be ‘databases of Chinese communications, the movement of lab workers and the pattern of the outbreak of the disease around the city of Wuhan.”

Biden’s call was also meant to spur American allies and intelligence agencies to scour their own evidence, such as “intercepts, witnesses or biological evidence — as well as hunt for new intelligence,” to assess whether the Chinese government covered up what happened.

Astute readers will notethat the NYT substitutes its own facts, framing any lab release as of course “accidental,” and suggesting that Biden only dismissed the lab origin theory “until the Chinese government this week rejected allowing further investigation by the World Health Organization.”

In reality, plenty of evidence existed which the entire leftist establishment and their media surrogates flatly branded a ‘debunked conspiracy theory’ after then-President Trump promoted it, while the World Health Organization (WHO) and US Centers for Disease Control (CDC) parroted CCP propaganda that the virus could have only emerged via ‘natural origin’ (as opposed to the Chinese lab manipulating bat coronaviruses in the same city that the pandemic started).

Meanwhile, China isn’t playing ball.

So far, the effort to glean evidence from intercepted communications within China, a notoriously hard target to penetrate, has yielded little. Current and former intelligence officials say they strongly doubt anyone will find an email or a text message or a document that shows evidence of a lab accident.

One allied nation passed on information that three workers in the Wuhan virological laboratory were hospitalized with serious flulike symptoms in the autumn of 2019. The information about the sickened workers is considered important, but officials cautioned that it did not constitute evidence that they caught the virus at the laboratory — they may have brought it there.

The White House is hoping that allies and partners can tap their networks of human sources to find additional information about what happened inside the laboratory. While the United States has been rebuilding its own sources in China, it has still not fully recovered from the elimination of its network inside the country a decade ago. As a result, having allies press their informants about what went on inside the Wuhan Institute of Virology will be a key part of the intelligence push ahead.

The inquiry has not reached a dead end, a senior Biden administration official said. Officials would not describe the kind of computational analysis they want to do.

According to the Timesboth scientists and spies will be working to unravel how the pandemic started, as “Senior officials have told the spy agencies that their science-oriented divisions, which have been working on the issue for months, will play a prominent role in the revitalized inquiry.

Will the Five Eyes rally around the lab leak?

According to the report, US allies have been providing evidence since the beginning of the pandemic. Australia, a member of the so-called Five Eyes partnership which also includes Britain, Canada and New Zealand, has strongly promoted the lab-leak theory. And while US intelligence agencies are reportedly coming together “around the two likely scenarios,” a former State Department official says the evidence to support the natural origin theory is virtually non-existent.

“We were finding that despite the claims of our scientific community, including the National Institutes of Health and Dr. Fauci’s NIAID organization, there was almost no evidence that supported a natural, zoonotic evolution or source of COVID-19,” said former State Department official David Asher in a statement to Fox News. “The data disproportionately stacked up as we investigated that it was coming out of a lab or some supernatural source.

Asher, the lead contractor on the subject, said the team investigated the two chief hypotheses for the virus’ origins, the other being the lab-leak theory that has gained credence after widespread media dismissal over the past year.

Asher has a history of investigative work tracking money for the AQ Khan network, North Korea’s nuclear program, and top Al Qaeda leaders, but has fallen under scrutiny from former State Department officials.

Asher was critical Thursday of former Assistant Secretary of State Chris Ford, who expressed reservations about the investigation’s findings and cautioned against the lab theory. Ford told Fox News that the AVC probe had been kept secret from him and bypassed department and intelligence community biological experts, although adding the lab origin theory was “very possible.” –Fox News

“That was the epicenter of synthetic biology in the People’s Republic of China, and they were up to some very hairy stuff with synthetic biology and so-called gain-of-function techniques,” said Asher, adding that the odds of natural origin were ‘extremely long.’

“To say this came out of a zoonotic situation, it’s ridiculous,” he concluded.

end

Commodity  markets//COMMODITY PRICES

traffic jam in California continues and that will drive up prices

(Miller/Freightwaves)

California’s Massive Container-Ship Traffic Jam Is Still Really Jammed

 
FRIDAY, MAY 28, 2021 – 06:30 AM

By Greg Miller of FreightWaves,

Peak shipping season is coming soon — and the “parking lot” of container ships stuck at anchor off the coast of California is still there, with Oakland surpassing Los Angeles/Long Beach as the epicenter of congestion.

Shipping giant Maersk warned in a customer advisory on Wednesday that Los Angeles and Long Beach “remain strained with vessel wait times averaging between one to two weeks.” But it said “the situation is even more dire at the Port of Oakland, where wait times now extend up to three weeks.”

West Coast port delays are having severe fallout for liner schedules. Congestion in California equates to canceled voyages as ships can’t get back to Asia in time to load cargo. Even as U.S. import demand soars, the effective capacity in the trans-Pacific trade is being sharply curtailed by voyage cancellations.

For importers, that means even longer delays, even higher all-in freight rates and a cap on how much can be shipped at any price.  

Maersk said that 20% of its capacity from Asia to the West Coast has been lost year to date as a result of operationally induced “blank” (canceled) sailings. It currently expects 16% of its Asia-West Coast capacity to be lost from now until the end of June and 13% to be lost from now until the end of August. “This unfortunately means Maersk may not be able to fully honor its original allocations for all customers,” the carrier admitted.

To put current cancellations in context, they are now running at the same percentage that carriers intentionally blanked in Q2 2020 to compensate for the sudden collapse of import demand when U.S. businesses were shuttered by nationwide lockdowns.

Deadline will be missed

Port of Los Angeles Executive Director Gene Seroka has repeatedly said that the San Pedro Bay anchorages need to be cleared before the traditional peak season surge begins. He has voiced a goal of June 1 for “few if any ships” at anchor.

 

Port of LA’s Gene Seroka

That deadline, which is a week away, will not be met.

The daily number of ships stuck in San Pedro Bay is down from an average of 31.8 in January to mid-March to 21.3 from mid-March to Tuesday. However, the numbers have stubbornly refused to fall further. As of Tuesday, there were still 20 ships at anchor in San Pedro Bay.

Asked about his June 1 target for clear anchorages, Seroka told American Shipper, “Import volume continues to be heavy and consistent, more than we had anticipated earlier this year. Reduction in dwell times is leveling off and the subsequent decline in [ships at] anchorage has slowed. Our goal remains to clear as much of the at-anchorage situation as possible prior to late summer and the start of the traditional peak season.”

Unfortunately, the peak season is expected to begin sooner than usual this year. Time appears to be about to run out — which implies even more congestion.

According to Maersk, “Peak season is expected to start early this year as retailers prepare for a strong back-to-school season that will likely blend into the end-of-year holiday peak season that typically starts in August. This will unfortunately put more pressure on an already stretched network with the potential to cause further disruptions.”

Congestion woes in Oakland

As of Wednesday, there were around 10 container ships anchored in San Francisco Bay, off Oakland, according to Automatic Identification System (AIS) ship-positioning data from MarineTraffic. But that’s less than half the story. Off the coast, there were an additional 15 or more container ships drifting in the Pacific.

 

Inner anchorage (left); ships drifting off coast (right). Maps by MarineTraffic; ship positions as of early Wednesday

The number of waiting ships has a different meaning for Oakland than for Los Angeles/Long Beach, as Oakland is a much smaller port. Oakland’s January-April import throughput was about one-tenth of the combined Los Angeles/Long Beach throughput.

Oakland has two berths temporarily out of commission. The ONE-operated NYK Delphinus suffered an engine room fire on May 14 and berthed in Oakland on May 18. AIS data showed the ship still at the berth on Wednesday. In addition, a berth at Oakland International Container Terminal has been unavailable for an extended period due to crane installations. That berth should come back online by the end of this month.

The bigger problem in Oakland, according to carriers Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd, is a shortage of available longshore labor. Maersk said in a client note last week, “Terminals are limited to two gangs per vessel on most ships due to the unavailability of the needed labor to cover the current demand.”

Hapag-Lloyd informed customers on Tuesday, “Massive import volumes combined with labor shortages are the biggest drivers of continued congestion and vessel operations delays [in Oakland].”

Asked about the labor shortfall, Andrew Hwang, the Port of Oakland’s manager of business development and international marketing, responded, “There is good news to report. It’s our understanding that the ILWU [longshore union] is preparing 300 new casuals to be added and another 150 ILWU members are being trained so that they can work skilled positions … needed to move cargo more efficiently. The new dockworkers and skilled labor are expected to be ready and able to join their colleagues this summer.”

Rough start for ZIM ‘fast’ service

One example of how Oakland congestion is affecting carriers and shippers involves ZIM. The Israeli carrier just introduced a new Asia-West Coast service called the Central China E-Commerce Express ZX3 that is designed to provide fast trans-Pacific service for time-sensitive cargo. It is scheduled to call in Oakland first, then Los Angeles.

It is not going as planned. The first ship, the 4,254-twenty-foot equivalent unit (TEU) Volans, was unable to get into Oakland on its inaugural call due to congestion and diverted to Los Angeles instead. A source told American Shipper that the vessel was quickly serviced in Los Angeles, with urgent cargo unloaded. On Wednesday, AIS data showed the Volans drifting with all the other ships off Oakland.

The new service is already so far behind schedule that the next ship in the string, the 4,250-TEU Navios Chrysalis, is due to arrive in Oakland just three days from now.

LA/LB congestion by the numbers

While the congestion is more extreme in Oakland, the anchorage situation off Los Angeles/Long Beach is more important from an overall import volume perspective.

American Shipper was provided the daily counts of container ships at anchor and at berth by the Marine Exchange of Southern California. The year-to-date numbers show the step-down in severity starting in mid-March and the persistence of the anchorage numbers since then.

 

Chart by American Shipper based on data from Marine Exchange of Southern California

Looking further back, to the pre-COVID era, shows the extent of the current import surge. In January-May 2019, Los Angeles/Long Beach averaged 14.9 container ships per day, including those at berth and at anchor. Year to date in 2021, the average is 53.9 ships per day, 3.6 times pre-COVID levels.

 

Chart by American Shipper based on data from Marine Exchange of Southern California; data from Dec. 2020 is daily, prior data is bimonthly

Looking even further back, the current congestion crisis can be compared to the last major disruption: the West Coast labor unrest that crippled port operations in January-April 2015.

American Shipper mapped the curves of ships at anchor during the 2015 incident against the current curve. Six years ago, the disruptions peaked three months after they began and came down quickly. The current crisis is already almost three times as long as the prior one, and the number of ships at anchor is still close to highs set back in 2015.

 

Chart by American Shipper based on data from Marine Exchange of Southern California

Realistically, decreased import demand is the most important (if not only) factor that would allow the West Coast port system to dig itself out of its hole and thus allow carriers to add back canceled sailings. 

But the data shows that import demand is still increasing.

FreightWaves’ SONAR platform features a proprietary index of shippers’ ocean bookings (SONAR: IOTI.USA) measured in twenty-foot equivalent units (10-day moving average) as of the scheduled date of overseas departure and indexed to January 2019.

While these are bookings, not loadings, the index provides a directional indicator of U.S. import volumes in the future, when ships from various export destinations arrive at American ports. The index has been considerably higher in May than in April, implying that volumes hitting U.S. shores next month will be even greater than current levels.

 

end

INFLATION WATCH

Rents are skyrocketing and that is going to push the CPI much much higher

(zerohedge))

And Now Prices Are Really Soaring: May Rent Jump Is Biggest On Record

 
FRIDAY, MAY 28, 2021 – 01:25 PM

With BofA predicting that the US is facing a period of “transitory hyperinflation” as a result of soaring commodity prices in everything from metals to food…

…. and beyond, in what increasingly more warn is a stagflationary burst right out of the 1970s playbook…

… it makes sense that home prices are also surging thanks to trillions in stimmy checks, near-record low mortgage rates and an exodus away from cities, and as we noted two weeks ago that’s precisely what they are doing, with Redfin reporting an 18% jump in median home sale prices to an all time high

… as a record 58% of all houses sell within two weeks of listing, of which 45% sell for more than their listing price, also a record.

Amid this dismal “transitorily hyperinflationary” landscape, where those whose incomes aren’t similarly hyperinflating find themselves at risk of being unable to afford a roof above their head, there was one ray of hope: rentingwith rent prices tumbling in recent months and according to the BLS’ monthly CPI metric, rent inflation had just dropped to the lowest in a decade, just below 2.0% annually…

… which due to the way the CPI basket is weighted acted as a key anchor on overall CPI rates, and served to distort the broader inflationary picture. In short, the Fed would look at the relatively tame core CPI which was only tame thanks to “tumbling” rents and would conclude that there is nothing to worry about.

Only, as we first discussed three weeks ago, it now appears that not only was the government misrepresenting the actual data in hopes of extracting as much stimulus from the Biden regime by pretending inflation is low and “contained”, but that rents are in fact soaring once again.

As we reported at the start of May, American Homes 4 Rent, which owns 54,000 houses, increased rents 11% on vacant properties in April, the company reported in a statement:

… Continued to experience record demand with a Same-Home portfolio Average Occupied Days Percentage of 97.3% in the first quarter of 2021, while achieving 10.0% rental rate growth on new leases, which accelerated further in April to an Average Occupied Days Percentage in the high 97% range while achieving over 11% rental rate growth on new leases.

Invitation Homes, the largest landlord in the industry, also boosted rents by similar amount, an executive said on a recent conference call. Or, as Bloomberg puts it, record occupancy rates are emboldening single-family landlords to hike rents aggressively, testing the limits of booming demand for suburban rentals.

While soaring housing costs had put homeownership out of reach for most Americans, rents had been relatively tame for much of 2020. But in recent months, rents have also soared as vaccines fuel optimism about a rebound from the pandemic, and a reversal in the city-to-suburbs exodus.  The increases, as Bloomberg so eloquently puts it, “may add to concerns about inflation pressures.”

“Companies are trying to figure out how hard they can push before they start losing people,” said Jeffrey Langbaum, an analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence. “And they seem to be of the opinion they can push as far as they want.”

Fast forward to today when we have definitive proof that the companies were right.

According to the June Apartment List National Rent Report, the national rent index increased by 2.3% from April to May, the largest single month increase ever recorded in AL estimates, which begin in January 2017.  It was also the third straight month in which that record has been broken, following a 2.0 percent increase last month and a 1.4 percent increase in March.

In March, prices rebounded to their pre-pandemic levels. This month, we hit a new milestone — our national index is now above the level where we project it would have been if the pandemic-related price declines of 2020 had never occurred at all.

After this recent spike, year-over-year rent growth now stands at 5.4% nationally, and prices are now above the level where rents would have been if the pandemic-related price declines of 2020 had never occurred at all.

In the chart above, AL plots the national median rent from 2018 to present. The data for 2018 and 2019 depicts the smooth seasonality of a typical year, in which prices peak during the summer busy season and then dip slightly in the winter off-season. Overall, prices increased by 2.9 percent in 2018 and 2.1 percent in 2019. 2020 represents a clear break from this trend, with rents declining in the early months of the pandemic during what is normally peak-season. The dashed line in the chart represents a projection of how rents would have changed over the past year in the absence of the pandemic. This projection is based on an average of the growth rates that we observed in 2018 and 2019. Actual rent growth had been trailing this projection since the start of the pandemic, but this month’s record setting growth has now put actual rents ahead of the projection. Year-over-year rent growth now stands at 5.4 percent, another record.

To be sure, there is significant regional variation in rent trends, and prices in a number of markets are still well below pre-pandemic levels. That said, even in these markets, prices are rebounding rapidly. San Francisco headlines throughout the pandemic for the staggering 26.6 percent drop in rents from March 2020 through January 2021, but since January, San Francisco rents have increased by 13.4 percent. Although rents in San Francisco are still 16.8 percent below pre-pandemic levels, the market has clearly turned a corner, and the best deals appear to be behind us.

San Francisco aside, there is a similar trend across the rest of the country where rents had been falling fastest. Nine of the ten cities with the sharpest year-over-year rent declines have now experienced positive rent growth for four consecutive months. Four of these cities — San Jose, Washington, D.C., Boston, and Minneapolis — have seen rents increasing for five consecutive months. The following chart shows month-over-month rent growth from 2018 to present for six of the cities that have been hit hardest by the pandemic:

As AL notes, in each of the six cities shown, the fastest single-month rent increase has taken place in 2021. Rents are still below pre-COVID levels in each of these cities, but they’re quickly catching up. Nowhere is the trend stronger than in Boston, where prices have increased by an average of 3.4 percent per month in 2021 –  if that pace continues, Boston rents will surpass March 2020 levels by mid-summer.

But if prices are rebounding sharply in traditional coastal markets, the market is nothing short of frenzied across another group of mid-sized markets. The pandemic and remote work spurred demand for the space and affordability that these cities offered, and in response, rent prices grew even as the surrounding economy struggled. But while rent declines in expensive markets have reversed course, the cities where rents have been growing fastest are continuing to boom. For the clearest example, no further than Boise, ID where the average rent has soared by 31% in the past year!

As ApartmentList notes, Boise, ID is leading the list, where rents grew by a staggering 6.6% over just the past month. This is the fastest month-over-month growth rate among the nation’s 100 largest cities, and Boise also continues to rank #1 for fastest year-over-year growth, which now stands at 30.8 percent. All of the 10 cities where rents have grown fastest since the start of the pandemic continued to see increases this month.

Many of these markets had been heating up prior to the pandemic. For example, from January 2017 to January 2020, rents in Mesa, AZ increased by 25.5 percent, the fastest growth in the nation over that period. Fresno ranked third for fastest rent growth from 2017 to 2020, while Chandler, AZ ranked sixth. Eight of the ten cities with the biggest pandemic booms were in the top 20 for pre-pandemic growth from 2017 to 2020. The pandemic did not necessarily start a new trend in these markets, so much as accelerate an existing one. This stands in contrast to what has happened in the expensive markets discussed above, for which the rent declines of the past year were a complete aberration. Given this longer-term context, as well as the continued upward trajectory in rent trends, it seems that Boise and cities like it have yet to hit their peaks.

As the Apartment List concludes, the pandemic created some truly “transitory” softness in the rental market last year, and in response, 2021 has seen some of the fastest rent growth we have on record in our data. Nationally, rents have now surpassed the level where they would have been if rent growth had not been disrupted by the pandemic. In markets like San Francisco where rents had been falling fastest, prices have turned a corner and are now rebounding. At the same time, booming markets like Boise continue to see prices climb. More broadly, rental inventory across the nation remains tight, and as vaccine distribution continues to gain momentum, we may be seeing even higher prices as a result of released pent up demand from renters who had been delaying moves due to the pandemic. Whereas last year’s peak moving season was halted by the pandemic, this year’s seasonal spike appears to be making up for lost time.

Summary: surging rents – the “missing piece” from both the CPI and PCE baskets – are back with a vengeance, and the result is that no matter which official inflation metric one uses, we are about to see some truly epic numbers in the coming weeks.

 
 

iv) Swamp commentaries/

 

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories./ of the day

Biden to propose a $6 trillion budget, pushing federal spending to its highest sustained levels in the US since World War II – NYT

Biden will formally introduce his $6 trillion budget on Friday – total spending to rise to $8.2 trillion by 2031…Total debt held by the public would more than exceed the annual value of economic output, rising to 117 percent of the size of the economy in 2031. By 2024, debt as a share of the economy would rise to its highest level in American history, eclipsing its World War II-era record.
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/05/27/us/biden-news-today#biden-will-formally-introduce-his-6-trillion-budget-on-friday

@BenEisen: President Biden’s $6 trillion budget assumes that his proposed capital-gains tax rate increase took effect in late April, meaning that it would already be too late for high-income investors to realize gains at the lower tax rates if Congress agrees  https://wsj.com/articles/biden

US Treasuries tumbled on the above report.  The higher yields pulled precious metals lower.

US Treasury Secretary Yellen: To Resolve Inequality, Large Amounts of Fiscal Policy are Needed

Senate Republicans unveil $928B counteroffer to Biden spending plan – Proposal focuses on core infrastructure projects while eliminating spending on other projects that have been backed by Democrats    [McConnell said the GOP proposal could go higher!]
https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/republicans-gop-infrastructure-counteroffer-senate-congress-biden

@JordanSchachtel: This is how GOP has been negotiating the bankruptcy of future generations.
Team Biden: We want $2 trillion for infrastructure. GOP: How about $500 billion. GOP: Okay, after not hearing back from you, we are proposing $1 trillion. Team Biden: Terms changed. We want $6 trillion.

Pending home sales pummeled – The Midwest was the only region to post month-over-month gains
The Pending Home Sales Index dropped 4.4% [+0.4% exp]… as reported by the National Association of Realtors. However, contract signings jumped 51.7% year-over-year.  [Inflation is impairing home sales.]
   “Contract signings are approaching pre-pandemic levels after the big surge due to the lack of sufficient supply of affordable homes,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist.  All regions except the Midwest saw a month-over-month drop. In the Midwest, the index increased 3.5% to 101.1, up over 39% compared to the same period a year ago…  https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/pending-home-sales-pummeled

@stlouisfed: The U.S. house price-to-rent ratio, a measure of housing valuation, is at its highest level since at least 1975 – By February 2021, the national house price-to-rent ratio had surpassed the previous peak reached in January 2006; in March 2021, the ratio was 1% higher than its level at the peak of the housing bubble. This suggests the average house now sells for quite a bit more than its “fair value,” as explained below…   https://t.co/kw41pNvnUS

US Q1 GDP increased 6.4%; 6.5% was expected.  The GDP Price Index hit 4.3%; 4.1% was consensus.  Core PCE hit 2.5%; 2.3% was expected.  Personal Consumption was revised to 11.3% from 10.7%; 10.9% was expected.

@zerohedge: Goldman’s core CPI year-end forecast is 3.5%, while core PCE is 2.3%. Why?  “The weights of both used cars and shelter are much bigger in the core CPI than in the core PCE, and because health insurance prices are not included in the PCE.”  Guess which one the Fed prefers.

US Durable Goods Orders for April unexpectedly dropped 1.3%; +0.8% m/m was expected.  Ex-Transportation Orders grew 1%; +0.8% was consensus.  Nondefense Orders Ex-Air jumped 2.3%; 1.0% was expected.  Shipments increased 0.9%; 0.8% was consensus.

Shipping-Container Rates Top $10,000 From Asia to Europe
The Drewry World Container Index released Thursday showed the rate for a 40-foot container from Shanghai to Rotterdam rose to $10,174, up 3.1% from a week ago and a 485% jump from a year ago. The composite index of eight major routes rose 2% to $6,257 from a week earlier and was 293% higher than a year ago, Drewry said. Both were the highest in records going back to 2011…
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-27/shipping-container-rates-top-10-000-from-asia-to-europe

Dollar Glut Drives Usage of Fed Reverse Repo Facility to Record
Volume for facility climbed to $485.3 billion on Thursday [~$.5T no use, sitting around doing nada!]
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-27/cash-glut-drives-usage-of-reverse-repo-facility-to-all-time-high

Fed’s Kaplan cites real estate excesses as one reason to start tapering purchases
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/27/feds-kaplan-cites-real-estate-excesses-as-one-reason-to-start-tapering-purchases.html
@EmeraldRobinson: Everybody knows that COVID-19 came from the Wuhan lab.  Everybody knows that Fauci funded the Wuhan lab.  Fauci funded Peter Daszak & Daszak gave a VIDEO INTERVIEW where he explains grafting spike proteins onto bat coronaviruses.  It’s just a matter of time now.

The Fed balance sheet fell $19.428B due to a $169.333B drop in deposits: The Treasury General Account disbursed $81.921B (tax refunds?); other deposit accounts fell $114.379B.  Depository Institution deposits increased $27.642B.  Reverse Repos grew $148.277Bhttps://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/current/

KC Fed: 2021 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium
The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City is proceeding with plans to host a modified, in-person program for this year’s Economic Policy Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Aug. 26-28, 2021
https://www.kansascityfed.org/newsroom/2021-news-releases/2021-jackson-hole-economic-policy-symposium/

New York Fed Examines Why Overnights Are Good for U.S. Stocks
Trading patterns based on the time of day have been evident for years. The largest positive returns in the study’s 1998–2019 sample have accrued between 2 a.m. and 3 a.m. New York time — the European open — and averaged 3.6% on an annualized basis, the authors said…
[Cuz ESMs are easier to manipulate at night in the thin markets, stupid!]
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-27/new-york-fed-examines-why-overnights-are-good-for-u-s-stocks

The Fed Lacks Precision Inflation Tools – Judy Shelton op-ed in WSJ
The central bank is likely to have trouble taming prices without hurting the real economy.
Increasing the interest rate paid on banks’ stockpiled reserves is the Fed’s principal mechanism for doing so [halting inflation]…  The Fed new tools are blunt instruments. One misplaced maneuver can rip through financial markets like a buzz saw
    It isn’t the interest rate itself but the Fed’s mechanisms for conducting monetary policy that pose the danger. By empowering the Fed to lift interest rates by increasing the rate paid on bank reserves rather than having to sell Treasury securities and whittle down its own enormous holdings, Congress enabled the central bank to become a behemoth…
    It remains to be seen whether commercial banks can be weaned off their unhealthy dependence on Fed largess, which rewards them for increasing their reserves rather than enlarging their loan portfolios. The situation is further complicated by the U.S. government’s dependence on the Fed’s readiness to purchase Treasury debt to fund deficit spending
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-fed-lacks-precision-inflation-tools-11622153546

Atlanta Mayoral Candidate Who Voted to Defund Police Carjacked for His Mercedes in Broad Daylight   https://notthebee.com/article/this-atlanta-councilman-and-mayoral-candidate-who-voted-to-defund-police-just-had-his-mercedes-stolen

Moll Hemingway: Watching the Press Handle Joe Biden, Is Like Watching a Baby Play Candyland  https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2021/02/01/mollue_hemingway_watching_the_press_handle_joe_biden_is_like_watching_a_baby_play_candyland.html

@charliespiering; [Media’s question to The Big Guy] “Mr. President what did you order?”
The Big Guy says, “Chocolate, chocolate chip” and the media/crowd disgracefully oohs and ahs!]
https://twitter.com/charliespiering/status/1398005456543653890

@TrumpJew2: Biden says every single hospital bed will be occupied by an Alzheimer’s patient in 15 years  https://twitter.com/TrumpJew2/status/1397988929836625928 [OMG!  He is really lost!]

@EmeraldRobinson: What if I told you there was a primary election last week in a Pennsylvania county where Republican ballots were mislabeled as Democrat ballots on computer screens?  Last week.

Pennsylvania County Appoints Top Prosecutor for Dominion Voting Machine’s Error That Failed to Show GOP Ballots [More news that the MSM will NOT report for political reasons]
https://beckernews.com/breaking-pennsylvania-county-appoints-top-prosecutor-for-dominion-voting-machines-error-that-failed-to-show-gop-ballots-39336/

Philly will count undated mail ballots the Pa. Supreme Court said should be thrown out
Philadelphia elections officials will count mail ballots from last week’s primary election that arrived in envelopes without dates, despite a Pennsylvania Supreme Court ruling that undated ballots be rejected…
https://www.inquirer.com/politics/election/philadelphia-undated-mail-ballots-pennsylvania-supreme-court-20210526.html

How Zuckerberg Millions Paid for Progressives to Work with 2020 Vote Officials Nationwide
The Center for Tech and Civic Life, or CTCL, provided millions of dollars in private funding for the elections that came from a $350 million donation from Zuckerberg and his wife, Priscilla Chan.  The CTCL gave “COVID-19 response” grants of varying amounts to  2,500 municipalities in 49 states.
   In exchange for the money, elections divisions agreed to conduct their elections according to conditions set out by the CTCL, which is led by former members of the New Organizing Institute, a training center for progressive groups and Democratic campaigns…
    A CTCL partner, the Center for Civic Design, helped design absentee ballot forms and instructionscrafted voter registration letters for felons and tested automatic voter registration systems in several states, working alongside progressive activist groups in Michigan and directly with elections offices in Georgia and Utah.  Still other groups with a progressive leaning, including the Main Street Alliance, The Elections Group and the National Vote at Home Institute, provided support for some elections offices
https://www.realclearinvestigations.com/articles/2021/05/26/how_zuckerberg_millions_paid_for_progressives_to_work_with_2020_vote_officials_nationwide_778300.html

@EmeraldRobinson: The same media people who told you the Wuhan lab leak was a conspiracy theory are the same media people who told you Hunter Biden’s laptop was Russian disinformation are the same media people who told you there was no election fraud.

@RLHeinrichs: Biden nominated Christopher Fonzone, who did legal work for Huawei, to serve as General Counsel of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence. He knew what they were too. He was on Obama’s NSC. The Dem-controlled Intel Committee advanced his nom.  https://t.co/AgeNLqrT42 

9 NYC Jail Workers Arrested for Smuggling Drugs, Weapons, Cell Phones into Jails  https://bit.ly/3fJ7PXC

END

LET US CLOSE OUT THE WEEK WITH THIS OFFERING COURTESY OF GREG HUNTER OF USA WATCHDOG

Greg’s summary is well worth the view….a must for the weekend

CV19 Vax Resistant Mutations, Ballot Audits Continue, Inflation Tax

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com (WNW 482 5.28.21)

According to the 2008 Nobel Prize winner in medicine, Luc Montagnier, the CV19 vaccines are creating variants or mutations that are resistant to the CV19 vaccine.  He also says that he is following the global vaccination push closely and says he is documenting that the “curve of vaccination is followed by the curve of deaths.”  Montagnier says he is seeing “patients who have become sick with Corona after being vaccinated.”

The mainstream press is already trying to tamp this down by saying Montagnier is an “anti-vaxer” and was misquoted.  I guarantee you he is not misquoted here on USAWatchdog.com.  See for yourself.

Election integrity audits are continuing but are also being vigorously resisted by Democrats in several states.  The mainstream media (MSM), which has become a propaganda arm of Deep State Democrats, are writing one negative story after another.  They are calling the auditors “grifters” and the audits “bogus.”  These are the same organizations who told us the CV19 virus did not come from a lab in China, and now we know, that, too was a propaganda lie.   It all will eventually boil down to the voting machines and the actual ballots.

During the 2020 campaign, Vice President Joe Biden famously said that his tax increase will not be paid by anyone making less than $400,000 a year.  If you consider the inflation rate that is vaulting higher, you know everyone who eats or drives a car is being taxed by inflation.  Now, Biden wants Congress to approve a $6 trillion budget in fiscal 2022.  How’s he going to pay for that?  Tax, tax and more tax on everyone and every company in America.  Another Biden election promise fulfilled.

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he talks about these stories and more in the Weekly News Wrap-Up for 5.28.21.

CV19 Vax Resistant Mutations, Ballot Audits Continue, Inflation Tax

 

Renowned radio host, filmmaker and top selling book author Steve Quayle will be the guest for the “Saturday Night Post.”  He will talk about the federal government’s recent admission about aliens on 60 Minutes and how Antarctica fits into the false story that has started being pitched to the world.

This segment is sponsored by Discount Gold and Silver Trading. Ask for Melody Cedarstrom, the owner, at 1-800-375-4188.

TO ALL OF AMERICAN FRIENDS OUT THERE A HAPPY AND SAFE MEMORIAL HOLIDAY WEEKEND

 

I WILL SEE  YOU TUESDAY NIGHT

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