JULY 8//GOLD DOWN $1.90 TO $1800.00//SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TO $25.95//GOLD TONNAGE STANDING 3.47 TONNES//SILVER OZ STANDING DROPS TO 33.8 MILLION OZ//CORONAVIRUS UPDATES/VACCINE UPDATES//MORE CHINESE FIRMS DROP PLANS FOR USA IPO//SPONSORS ABANDON SUPPORT FOR JAPANESE OLYMPICS AFTER SPECATORS NOT ALLOWED IN//CHINESE ECONOMY SPUTTERING//14 MILLION AMERICANS STILL ON THE DOLE//INTERSTING READ FROM TOM LUONG0//WELLS FARGO STOPS ALL PERSONAL LINES OF CREDIT: SOMETHING IS UP!!//INFLATION WATCH//SHRINKFLATION IS BACK!!//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

 

GOLD:$1800.00 DOWN $1.90  The quote is London spot price

Silver:$25.95  DOWN 9 CENTS  London spot price ( cash market)

 
 
 
 

Closing access prices:  London spot

i)Gold : $1802.75 LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

ii)SILVER:  $25.93//LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

 

 

PLATINUM AND PALLADIUM PRICES BY GOLD-EAGLE (MORE ACCURATE)

 

 

PLATINUM  $1080.45  DOWN $0.72

PALLADIUM: $2806.96  DOWN $31.91  PER OZ.

 

END

Editorial of The New York Sun | February 1, 2021

end

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COMEX DATA 

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

receiving today  58/183

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: JULY 2021 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,801.500000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 07/07/2021 DELIVERY DATE: 07/09/2021
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
072 C GOLDMAN 27
624 C BOFA SECURITIES 10
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 42
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 12
657 H MORGAN STANLEY 41
661 C JP MORGAN 130 58
732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 2
737 C ADVANTAGE 12 25
880 C CITIGROUP 7
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 183 183
MONTH TO DATE: 921

ISSUED:  130

Goldman Sachs:  stopped: 27

 
 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  JULY. CONTRACT: 183 NOTICE(S) FOR 18300 OZ  (0.5692 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR THIS MONTH:  921 FOR 92100 OZ  (2.8646 TONNES)

 

SILVER//JULY CONTRACT

77 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 385,000  OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month 5659  :  for 28,295,000  oz

 

BITCOIN MORNING QUOTE  $32,569 DOWN 2107  DOLLARS 

 

BITCOIN AFTERNOON QUOTE.:$32,500 DOWN 2176 DOLLARS

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

GLD AND SLV INVENTORIES:

GLD AND SLV INVENTORIES:

Gold

WITH GOLD  DOWN $1.90 AND NO PHYSICAL TO BE FOUND ANYWHERE:

A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / A WPAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.04 TONNES FROM THE GLD

WITH RESPECT TO GLD WITHDRAWALS:  (OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS)

 

GOLD IS “RETURNED” TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHEN CALLING IN THEIR LEASES: THE GOLD NEVER LEAVES THE BANK OF ENGLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BANK IS PROTECTING ITSELF IN CASE OF COMMERCIAL FAILURE

THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD!!

GLD  1040.19 TONNES OF GOLD//

Silver

AND WITH NO SILVER AROUND  TODAY: WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS

NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ 

 

WITH REGARD TO SILVER WITHDRAWALS FROM THE SLV:

THE SILVER WITHRAWALS ARE ACTUALLY “RETURNED” TO JPM, AS JPMORGAN CALLS IN ITS LEASES WITH THE SLV FUND.  (THE STORY IS THE SAME AS THE BANK OF ENGLAND’S GOLD). THE SILVER NEVER LEAVES JPMORGAN’S VAULT. THEY ARE CALLING IN THEIR LEASES FOR FEAR OF SOLVENCY ISSUES.

INVENTORY RESTS AT: 

 

556.077  MILLION OZ./SLV

xxxxx

GLD closing price//NYSE 168.67 DOWN $0.07 OR 0.05%

XXXXXXXXXXXXX

SLV closing price NYSE 24.03 DOWN $0.21 OR 0.87%

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

 
 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

THE COMEX OI IN SILVER FELL BY A  STRONG SIZED 1103 CONTRACTS  TO 156,113, AND FURTHER FROM THE NEW RECORD OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020. THE LOSS IN OI OCCURRED WITH OUR  $0.05 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX  ON WEDNESDAY . IT SEEMS THAT THE LOSS IN COMEX OI IS PRIMARILY DUE TO MASSIVE BANKER AND ALGO  SHORT COVERING AS OUR BANKER FRIENDS ARE GETTING QUITE SCARED OF BASEL III INITIATED JUNE 28/2021 !// WE HAD SOME REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//.. COUPLED AGAINST A STRONG EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. WE HAVE SOME LONG LIQUIDATION AS TOTAL LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES EQUATES TO A SMALL 353 CONTRACTS. (1.765 MILLION OZ)

 

I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL:

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN SILVER TODAY: XX CONTRACTS

WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A STRONG  NUMBER OF  COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 750,, AS WE HAD THE FOLLOWING ISSUANCE:,  JULY 0 AND SEPT 750 ZERO ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE 750 CONTRACTS. THE BANKERS ARE NOW BEING BITTEN BY THOSE SERIAL FORWARDS (EFP’S CIRCULATING IN LONDON) AS THEY ARE NOW BEING EXERCISED AND COMING BACK TO NEW YORK FOR REDEMPTION OF METAL.  THE COST TO SERVICE THESE SERIAL FORWARDS IS HIGH TO OUR BANKERS  BUT THEY HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO ISSUE A FEW OF THEM! SILVER IS IN BACKWARDATION AND AS SUCH THE DANGER TO OUR BANKERS IS LONDONERS WILL PURCHASE CHEAPER FUTURES METAL OVER HERE AND THEN TAKE DELIVERY.

HISTORY OF SILVER OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR THE PAST 33 MONTHS.

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

7.32     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

2.630     MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOV.

20.970   MILLION OZ  FINAL STANDING IN DEC

2020

5.075     MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JAN

1.480    MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN FEB

23.005  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAR 

4.660  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR APRIL

45.220 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAY***(5THHIGHEST RECORDED STANDING FOR SILVER)

2.205  MILLION OF FINAL STANDING FOR JUNE

86.470  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JULY…RECORD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED

6.475 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN AUGUST

55.400 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN SEPT (3RD HIGHEST RECORDED STANDING)

8.900 MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT.

3.950 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN NOV.

46.685 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR DEC. (4TH HIGHEST RECORDED STANDING)

2021

60 MILLION FINAL STANDING FOR JAN 2021

12.020  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR FEB 2021

58.425 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MARCH 2021//2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED

14.935 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR APRIL

36.365 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAY 

14.505MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR JUNE

34.165  MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING FOR JULY

WEDNESDAY, AGAIN OUR CROOKS USED COPIOUS PAPER TRYING TO LIQUIDATE SILVER’S PRICE …AND THEY WERE

SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN ,(IT FELL BY $0.05)  AND WERE SUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE SOME SILVER LONGS WITH WEDNESDAY’S TRADING.  WE HAD A SMALL LOSS OF 353 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES..  THE GAIN WAS  ALSO DUE TO i) HUGE BANKER/ALGO SHORT COVERING// WE ALSO HAD  ii) SOME REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//.    iii)  A  STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) A  STRONG INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 38.535 MILLION OZ BUT THEN TODAY A HUGE EFP JUMP   (62 CONTRACTS//310,000 OZ:  NOW STANDING 33.855 MILLION OZ// / v)  STRONG COMEX OI LOSS 
.
YOU CAN BET THE FARM THAT OUR BANKERS  ARE DESPERATE TO LIQUIDATE THEIR HUGE SHORT POSITIONS IN SILVER..
 
 
 
 
 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

 

JULY

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY /FOR MONTH OF  JULY:

4658 CONTRACTS (FOR 4 TRADING DAY(S) TOTAL 4658 CONTRACTS) OR 23.290MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1302 CONTRACTS OR 6.5133 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF JULY: 23.290  MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON

JAN EFP ACCUMULATION FINAL:  113.735 MILLION OZ

FEB EFP ACCUMULATION FINAL:   208.18 MILLION OZ (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

MAR EFP ACCUMULATION SO FAR: : 103.450 MILLION OZ  (DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//FEARS OF EFP CONTRACTS BEING EXERCISED FOR METAL)

APRIL: 84.730 MILLION OZ  (SILVER IS NOW IN SEVERE BACKWARDATION AND THUS DRAMATICALLY FEWER ISSUANCE OF EFP’S)

MAY: 137.83 MILLION OZ

 

JUNE:  149.91 MILLION OZ// ISSUANCE RATE NOW SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE THE MONTH OF MAY

JULY:  23.290 MILLION OZ ) BELOW PAR WITH JUNE)

RESULT: WE HAD A VERY  STRONG DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1103 , WITH OUR $0.05 LOSS  IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ///WEDNESDAY .THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 750 CONTRACTS WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS.

TODAY WE HAD A SMALL SIZED LOSS OF 353 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES (WITH OUR $0.05 LOSS

IN PRICE)//THE DOMINANT FEATURE TODAY: HUGE BANKER SHORTCOVERING/  AND AFTER A  STRONG INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JULY. (38.535 MILLION OZ), WE HAD A HUGE EFP JUMP  OF 310,000 OZ//NEW STANDING 33.855 MILLION OZ/

 

THE TALLY//EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

i.e  750  OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s)TOGETHER WITH A STRONG SIZED DECREASE OF 1103 OI COMEX CONTRACTS.AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND HAPPENED WITH OUR  $0.05 LOSS IN PRICE OF SILVER/AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $26.05/ WEDNESDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY. 

WE HAD 77  NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR 385,000 OZ

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018. AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.70//TODAY’S RECORD OF 244,705 WAS SET WITH A PRICE OF: 18.91 (FEB 25/2020)

AND YET, WITH THE SILVER IN BACKWARDATION (INDICATING SCARCITY), WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 
 
 
 

GOLD

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A TINY SIZED SIZED 442 CONTRACTS TO 466,253 ,,AND CLOSER TO  OUR NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110. 

 

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: -3316 CONTRACTS.

THE FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI CAME WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $7.70///COMEX GOLD TRADING/WEDNESDAY.AS IN SILVER WE MUST HAVE HAD HUGE BANKER/ALGO SHORT COVERING ACCOMPANYING OUR SMALL SIZED EXCHANGE FOR  PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. WE ALSO HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AS, WE HAD A SMALL SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 1315 CONTRACTS.  WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR JULY AT 3.144 TONNES WHICH WAS FOLLOWED BY A 9700 OZ QUEUE JUMP//COMEX STANDING NOW AT 3.4712 TONNES. OUR CROOKED BANKERS ARE TRYING TO FIND METAL ON THIS SIDE OF THE ATLANTIC.
 
 

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $7.70 WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S TRADING

 

WE HAD A VOLUME OF 0    4 -GC CONTRACTS//OPEN INTEREST  0//

WE HAD A GOOD SIZED GAIN OF 4631  OI CONTRACTS (14.404   TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES…

 

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A SMALL SIZED 873 CONTRACTS:

CONTRACT  AND JULY:  0; AUGUST: 873  ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO//TOTAL: 873 The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 466,253. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EXCHANGE DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 1315 CONTRACTS:  442 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 750 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 1315 CONTRACTS OR 4.09 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A SMALL SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (873) ACCOMPANYING THE FAIR SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (442 OI): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES: 1315 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING/BIS MANIPULATION WITH CONSIDERABLE ALGO SHORT COVERING ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR JULY AT 3.144 TONNES//FOLLOWED BY A 9700 OZ QUEUE  JUMP,//NEW STANDING 3.4712 TONNES// //3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION, /// ;4) TINY SIZED COMEX OI GAIN AND 5) SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL AND ….

 

SPREADING OPERATIONS/NOW SWITCHING TO SILVER  (WE SWITCH OVER TO GOLD ON JULY  1)

FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS:

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED IN GOLD  AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF AUGUST.

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

 
 

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

.

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO GOLDAS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY. HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST FOR GOLD:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF JULY. BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (AUGUST), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

 
 
 
 
 
 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2021 INCLUDING TODAY

JULY

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JULY : 11,000, CONTRACTS OR 1,100,000 oz OR 34.21 TONNES (4 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2750 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 4 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 34.21 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2020, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  34.21/3550 x 100% TONNES  0.887% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO DATE
JANUARY: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)
 
FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..
 
 
MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN///IT SURPASSED JANUARY!!)

 

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        34.21 TONNES INITIAL (FALLING IN RATE FROM JUNE)

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, FELL BY  STRONG SIZED 1103 CONTRACTS  TO 156,113 AND FURTHER FROM OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  3 1/4 YEARS AGO.  

EFP ISSUANCE 750 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

  JULY 0  AND SEPT: 750 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  750 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI LOSS OF 1103 CONTRACTS AND ADTO THE 750 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,WE OBTAIN A SMALL SIZED LOSS OF 353 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES 

 

THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 1.765 MILLION  OZ, OCCURRED WITH OUR  $0.05 LOSS IN PRICE

 

 

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL..THE EVIDENCE IS CLEAR: HUGE AMOUNTS OF PHYSICAL STANDING FOR BOTH  SILVER AND GOLD .

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Gold

(Peter Schiff, Egon von Greyerz///zerohedge + OTHER COMMENTARIES

 
 

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)THURSDAY MORNING/WEDNESDAY  NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 28.21  PTS OR 0.79%   //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 807.49 PTS OR 2.89%      /The Nikkei closed DOWN 248.92 pts or 0.88%  //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .20%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN TO 6.4990  /Oil DOWN TO 71.80 dollars per barrel for WTI and 72.77 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED /ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED  DOWN AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.4990. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.4987/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%//

 
 
 
3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

NORTH KOREA//USA/OUTLINE

END

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3 C CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

OUTLINE
 

COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A TINY SIZED 442 CONTRACTS TO 466,253 MOVING CLOSER TO   THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020).  AND THIS COMEX INCREASE OCCURRED WITH OUR  GAIN OF $7.70 IN GOLD PRICING WEDNESDAY’S COMEX TRADING/.WE ALSO HAD A SMALL EFP ISSUANCE (873 CONTRACTS). …AS THEY WERE PAID HANDSOMELY  NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AND SETTLE FOR CASH.

 

WE NORMALLY HAVE WITNESSED  EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS. IT SEEMS THAT ARE BANKERS FRIENDS ARE EXERCISING EFP’S FROM LONDON AND NOW THEY ARE LOATHE TO ISSUE NEW ONES.  

 

(SEE BELOW)

WE  HAD 0    4 -GC VOLUME//open interest REMAINS AT   0

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW MOVING TO THE VERY ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A SMALL SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 873 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  ;: ,  JULY 0 & AUGUST:  873  & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 873  CONTRACTS 

 

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION,  EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A SMALL SIZED 1315 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 873 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED TINY SIZED COMEX OI OF 442 CONTRACTS.WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR JULY   (3.4712),

 HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 6 MONTHS OF 20201:

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB. 113.424 TONNES

JAN: 6.500 TONNES.

 

THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT ROSE $7.70)., AND THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING ANY LONGS AS WE HAD A SMALL SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 1315 CONTRACTS. THE TOTAL GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES REGISTERED 4.090 TONNES,ACCOMPANYING OUR HUGE GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR JULY (3.4712 TONNES)..I  STRONGLY BELIEVE THAT OUR BANKER FRIENDS ARE GETTING QUITE NERVOUS.  THE SMALL SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI IS DUE TO BANKER SHORT COVERING IN A BIG WAY.  THEY ARE LOOKING OVER THEIR SHOULDERS AND WITNESSING MASSIVE SILVER/GOLD SHORTAGES THAT CANNOT BE COVERED. THEY ARE TRYING TO FLEE IN HASTE “FROM DODGE”.

THE BIS REMOVED 3316  CONTRACTS FROM COMEX TRADES. THESE WERE REMOVED AFTER TRADING ENDED FRIDAY NIGHT. 

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ::1315 CONTRACTS OR 131500 OZ OR  4.090  TONNES

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT COMMODITY FUTURES OPEN INTEREST SHOULD APPROXIMATE 3% OF TOTAL PRODUCTION.  IN GOLD THE WORLD PRODUCES AROUND 3500 TONNES PER YEAR BUT ONLY 2200 TONNES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE WEST (THUS EXCLUDING RUSSIA, CHINA ETC..WHO KEEP 100% OF THEIR PRODUCT.
 
THUS IN GOLD WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:  466,253 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS X 100 OZ PER CONTRACT = 46.62 MILLION OZ/32,150 OZ PER TONNE =  1450 TONNES

 

THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST REPRESENTS 1450/2200 OR 65.91% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF GOLD.

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX GOLD TODAY:273,324 contracts//    / volume fair//

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY: 185,284 contracts// – poor//  

// //most of our traders have left for London

 

JULY 8

/2021

 
INITIAL STANDINGS FOR JULY COMEX GOLD
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
9677.45 oz
Brinks
 
 
 
includes
301
 
KILOBARS
Brinks
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz
 
12,538.89 oz
Manfra
390 kilobars
 
 
 
 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz
 
nil
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
No of oz served (contracts) today
183  notice(s)
 
18300 OZ
0.5692 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)
195 contracts
19,500 oz
 
0.606 TONNES
 
 
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
921 notices
92,100 OZ
2.8646 TONNES
 
 
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz
 
 
 
We had 1 deposits into the dealer
 
i) Into the dealer Manfra: 12,538.89 oz  (390 kilobars)
 
 
 
 
total deposit: 12,538.89 oz   oz 
 

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had  0 deposits into the customer account
 
 
 
TOTAL CUSTOMER DEPOSITS nil  oz  
 
 
 
 
 
 
We had 1  customer withdrawals….
 
i) Out of Brinks:9677.45 oz (301 kilobars)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
total customer withdrawals 9677.450   oz
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

We had 2  kilobar transactions 2 out of  2 transactions)

ADJUSTMENTS  0// 

 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

The front month of JULY registered a total of 378 contracts for a loss of 12.  We had  109 notices filed Wednesday so we GAINED 97 contracts or an additional 9700 oz will  stand for gold at the comex as they refused to morphed into London based forwards 

 

 
 
 
 
 
AUGUST LOST 4726  CONTRACTS DOWN TO 346,253
 
SEPT GAINED ANOTHER 92 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 292
 
OCTOBER GAINED 310 CONTRACTS UP TO 21,039.

We had 109 notice(s) filed today for 10,900  oz

FOR THE JULY 2021 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 130 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 183  contract(s) of which 0  notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 58 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 27  notices received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JULY /2021. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (921) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  (JULY: 378 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today  183 x 100 oz per contract equals 111,600 OZ OR 3.4712 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this active month of JULY

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JULY contract month:

No of notices filed so far (921) x 100 oz+( 378  OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (183} x 100 oz} which equals 111,600 oz standing OR 3.14712 TONNES in this NON- active delivery month of JULY.

We FINALLY GAINED an additional 9700 oz that will stand on this side of the Atlantic.

 
 

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

427,737.391, oz NOW PLEDGED  march 5/2021/HSBC  13.30 TONNES

202,692.098 PLEDGED  MANFRA 6.30 TONNES

276,177.249, oz  JPM  8.59 TONNES

1,187,560.751 oz pledged June 12/2020 Brinks/36.93 TONNES

111,411.349, oz Pledged August 21/regular account 3.46 tonnes JPMORGAN

42,638,023 oz International Delaware:  1.326 tonnes

nil oz Malca

total pledged gold:  2,248,216.862. oz                                     69.92 tonnes

 

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES…. WE HAVE 505.23 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS i.e. 3.4712 tonnes

CALCULATION OF REGISTERED THAT CAN BE SETTLED UPON:

total registered or dealer  18,458,390.295 oz or 574.13 tonnes
 
 
 
total weight of pledged: 2,248,216.862 oz or 69.92 tonnes
 
 
registered gold that can be used to settle upon: 16,210,174.0 (504,20 tonnes) 
 
 
 
 
true registered gold  (total registered – pledged tonnes16,210,174.0 (504,20 tonnes)   
 
 
total eligible gold: 17,037,710.519 oz   (529.94 tonnes)
 
 
 
total registered, pledged  and eligible (customer) gold  35,496,100 oz or 1,104.07 tonnes
 (INCLUDES 4 GC GOLD)
 
 

total 4 GC gold:   126.34 tonnes

total gold net of 4 GC:  978.63 tonnes

end

I have compiled  data with respect to registered (or dealer) gold taken on first day notice for each of the past 24 months

The data begins on first day notice for the May month taken on the last day of July 2018. and it continues to present day.

I then took, how many deliveries were recorded by the CME for each and every month.  I also included for reference the price of gold on first day notice.

The first graph is a logarithmic  graph and the second graph, linear.

You can see the huge explosion of registered gold at the comex along with deliveries.

 
 
THE DATA AND GRAPHS:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
END

 

 
 
JULY 8/2021
 
 

 

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

427,737.391, oz NOW PLEDGED  march 5/2021/HSBC  13.30 TONNES

202,692.098 PLEDGED  MANFRA 6.30 TONNES

276,177.249, oz  JPM  8.59 TONNES

1,187,560.751 oz pledged June 12/2020 Brinks/36.93 TONNES

111,411.349, oz Pledged August 21/regular account 3.46 tonnes JPMORGAN

42,638,023 oz International Delaware:  1.326 tonnes

nil oz Malca

total pledged gold:  2,248,216.862. oz                                     69.92 tonnes

 

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES…. WE HAVE 505.23 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS i.e. 3.4712 tonnes

CALCULATION OF REGISTERED THAT CAN BE SETTLED UPON:

total registered or dealer  18,458,390.295 oz or 574.13 tonnes
 
 
 
total weight of pledged: 2,248,216.862 oz or 69.92 tonnes
 
 
registered gold that can be used to settle upon: 16,210,174.0 (504,20 tonnes) 
 
 
 
 
true registered gold  (total registered – pledged tonnes16,210,174.0 (504,20 tonnes)   
 
 
total eligible gold: 17,037,710.519 oz   (529.94 tonnes)
 
 
 
total registered, pledged  and eligible (customer) gold  35,496,100 oz or 1,104.07 tonnes
 (INCLUDES 4 GC GOLD)
 
 

total 4 GC gold:   126.34 tonnes

total gold net of 4 GC:  978.63 tonnes

end

JULY 8/2021
 
 

 

And now for the wild silver comex results

 


We had 0 deposit into the dealer
 

 


 


 

 


 


 

 


 


 

 


 


total dealer deposits:  nil        oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

 

 


 


total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had  1 deposits into customer account (ELIGIBLE ACCOUNT)

i) Into Loomis:  557,574.488 oz

 

 


 


 

 


 


 

 


 


 

 


 


 

 


 


JPMorgan now has 187.5 million oz  silver inventory or 53.9% of all official comex silver. (187.5 million/352.358 million

 

 


 


total customer deposits today  nil   oz

we had 1 withdrawals

 

 


 


 


 

 


 


 


i) Out of Delaware:  6971.810 oz
 

 


 


 

 


 


 

 


 


 

 


 


 

 


 


 


total withdrawals 6971.810     oz

 

 


 


 

 


 


 


 

 


 


 

 


 


 


 


adjustments//1  // dealer to customer//CNT

i) 4975.000 oz

 

 


 


 

 


 


 

 


 


 

 


 


Total dealer(registered) silver: 111.928 million oz

 

 


 


 

 


 


 

 


 


total registered and eligible silver:  352.358 million oz

a net 550,000 oz enters  the comex silver vaults.

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 
 
 

July LOST  433 contracts DOWN 1189 contracts. We had 371 notices filed on Wednesday so we LOST a STRONG 62 contracts or an additional  310,000 oz will NOT stand for silver at the comex in this very active delivery month of July. THE BANKERS HAVE ORDERED LONGS NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY ON THIS SIDE OF THE ATLANTIC 

 

AUGUST gained 45 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 1721

SEPTEMBER LOST 1405 CONTRACTS DOWN TO  122,838

 
NO. OF NOTICES FILED:  77  FOR 385,000 OZ.

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JULY. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at  5659 x 5,000 oz = 28,295,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JULY (1189) and the number of notices served upon today 77 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the JULY standings for silver for the JULY/2021 contract month: 5659 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of JULY( 1189)  – number of notices served upon today (77) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the JULY contract month .equals 33,855,000 oz. ..VERY POOR FOR JULY. 

We LOST a huge 62 contracts or 310,000 oz as they morphed into London based forwards and received a hefty bonus for doing so.

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME  59,160 CONTRACTS // volume  poor//getting out of Dodge//(

 

FOR YESTERDAY  54,651  ,CONFIRMED VOLUME/ poor/

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV  FALLS TO -0.87% (JULY  7/2021)

SILVER FUND POSITIVE TO NAV

no of oz of physical silver held  jULY 8.2021;  150,926,000  (GAIN OF 6.411 MILION OZ IN A MONTH)

No of oz of physical silver held; MAY 24/2021  144,515,694 OZ

No. of oz of physical silver held:  Sept 20/20: 85,907.3616  Oz

No of oz pf physical silver held: Dec 21/2019:  65,073.570 Oz

During the past 8 months Sprott has added: 58,608.30 Oz

So far this year: 53.8 million oz

2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -0.92% nav   (JULY 8)

 

/2021 )

 

3. SPROTT CEF .A   FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA)

NAV $18.97 TRADING 18.68//NEGATIVE  1.52

 

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/(this vehicle is a fraud as there is no gold behind them!)

JULY 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.90 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.04 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1040.18 TONNES

JULY 7/WITH GOLD UP $7.70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1042.23 TONNES

JULY 6/WITH GOLD UP $11.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .48 TONNES//INVENTORY REST AT 1042.23 TONNES

JULY 2/WITH GOLD UP $6.15 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.62 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1043.16 TONNES

JULY 1/WITH GOLD UP $5.55 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1045.78 TONNES

JUNE 30/WITH GOLD UP $8.30 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1045.78 TONNES

JUNE 29/WITH  GOLD DOWN $17.55 TODAY;A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD;A DEPOSIT OF 2.91 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1045.78 TONNES

JUNE 28/WITH GOLD UP $2.00 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1042.65 TONNES/

JUNE 25/WITH GOLD UP $1.45 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1042.65 TONNES

JUNE 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.20 TODAY: TWO HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.9 TONNES FROM THE GLD AT 3 PM AND ANOTERH 3.78 TONNES AT 5 20 PM///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1042.65 TONNES

JUNE 23/WITH GOLD UP $5.75 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1049.55 TONNES

JUNE 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1049.55 TONNES//

JUNE 21/WITH GOLD UP $13.70 TODAY: TWO HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 11.09 TONNES INTO THE GLD AT 3 PM AND THEN A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.42 TONNES AT 5 PM////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1049.55 TONNES

JUNE 18/WITH GOLD DOWN  $7.70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1041.99 TONNES/

JUNE 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $83.10 TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.62 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1041.99 TONNES.

JUNE 16/WITH GOLD UP $5.05 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1044.61 TONNE

JUNE 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.25 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1044.61 TONNES.

JUNE 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.60 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1044.61 TONNES

JUNE 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $15.90 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.45 TONNES INTO THE GLD/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1044.61 TONNES

JUNE 10/WITH GOLD UP $1.40 TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 5.83 TONNES INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1043.16 TONNES.

JUNE 9/WITH GOLD UP $1.05 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1037.33 TONNES

JUNE 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 5.93 TONNES FROM THE GLD/.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1037.33 TONNES

JUNE 7/WITH GOLD UP $6.50 TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/” A DEPOSIT OF 1.41 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY REST AT 1043.16 TONNES.

JUNE 4/WITH GOLD UP $18.70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1041.75 TONNES

JUNE 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $35.75 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.08 TONNES FORM THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1041.75 TONNES

JUNE 2/WITH GOLD UP $4.85 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A DEPOSIT OF 2.62 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1045.83 TONNES/

JUNE 1/WITH GOLD UP $0.10 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1043.21  TONNES

MAY 28/WITH GOLD UP $6.85 TODAY:A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/; A WITHDRAWAL OF .87 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1043.21 TONNES

MAY 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.35 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1044.08 TONNES

MAY 26/WITH GOLD UP $4.45 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.04 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1044.08 TONNES

MAY 25/WITH GOLD UP $13.25 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A DEPOSIT OF 2.30 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY REST AT 1046.12 TONNES.

MAY 24/WITH GOLD UP $8.25 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY A THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1042.92 TONNES

MAY 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.20 TODAY: TWO HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 5.82 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD AT 3 PM AND ANOTHER 5.83 TONNES ADDED AT 5.20 PM/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1042.92. TONNES

MAY 20/WITH GOLD UP 20 CENTS TODAY/A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.66 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1031.27 TONNES

MAY 19/WITH GOLD UP $13.35 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD IVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1035.93 TONNES

MAY 18/WITH GOLD UP $.75 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A MASSIVE 7.57 TONNES OF GOLD ADDED TO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1035.93 TONNES

MAY 17  WITH GOLD UP $29.95 TODAY/// .. NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD…INVENTORY RESTS AT 1028.36 TONNES

MAY 14  WITH GOLD UP $13.05… A BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD.//A DEPOSIT OF 3.21 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1028.36 TONNES

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Inventory rests tonight at:

 

JULY 8 / GLD INVENTORY 1042.23 tonnes

LAST;  1089 TRADING DAYS:   +115.78 TONNES HAVE BEEN ADDED THE GLD

 

LAST 939 TRADING DAYS// +  290.32. TONNES HAVE NOW  BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

 

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them!

JULY 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY //NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 556.077 MILLION OZ.

JULY 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 5  CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.854 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/// INVENTORY RESTS AT 556.077 MILLION OZ//

JULY 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 29 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//: A WITHDRAWAL OF 242,000  OZ INVENTORY REST AT 557 931 MILLION OZ.

JULY 2/WITH SILVER UP 35 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.966 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 558.173 MILLION OZ.

JULY 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 561.139 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 30/WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.781 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 561.139 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 32 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 927,000 OZ FORM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 558.358 MILLION OZ.

JUNE 28/WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.762 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 559.285 MILLION OZ

JUNE 25//WITH SILVER DOWN 0 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.391 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 561.047 MILLION OZ

 

JUNE 24/WITH  SILVER DOWN 1 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.854 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 562.438 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 23/WITH SILVER UP 23 CENTS TODAY:A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.391 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 564.292 MILLION OZ../

JUNE 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.173 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 565.683 MILLION OZ..

JUNE 18/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 573.657 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 17/WITH SILVER DOWN $1.86 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.339 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTRS AT 573.657 MIILLION OZ//

JUNE 16/WITH SILVER UP 17 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 576.996 MILLION OZ/

JJUNE 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 35 CENTS TODAY; NOCHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 576.996 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY; TWO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/): i)A WITHDRAWAL OF 371,000 OZ FROM THE SLV and then ii) A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.484 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/////NVENTORY RESTS AT 576.996 MILLION OZ

JUNE 11/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 575.883 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 10/WITH SILVER UP  ONE CENT TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 575.883 MILLION OZ.

UNE 9/ WITH SILVER UP 17 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 577.228 MILLION OZ.

JUNE 8/WITH SILVER  DOWN 28 CENTS TODAY: TWO HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 928,000 OZ AND THEN ANOTHER 231,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 577.228 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 7/WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY REST AT 578.387 MILLION OZ..

JUNE 4/ WITH SILVER UP 33 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 578.387 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 3/WITH SILVER DOWN 71 CENTS TODAY//A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A DEPOSIT OF 1.714 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 578.387 MILLION OZ

JUNE 2/WITH SILVER UP  12 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 576.673 MILION OZ.

JUNE 1//WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 576.673 MILLION OZ/

MAY 28/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 576.673 MILLION OZ/

MAY 27/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV..INVENTORY RESTS AT 576.673 MILLION OZ.

MAY 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 576.673 MILLION OZ/

MAY 25/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.855 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 576.673 MILLION OZ/

MAY 24/WITH SILVER UP 25 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.855 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 574.818 MILLION OZ//

MAY 21.WITH SILVER DOWN 51 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.299 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 572.963 MILLION OZ/

MAY 20/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 571.664 MILLION OZ//

MAY 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 32 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 571.664 MILLION OZ/

MAY 18/WITH SILVER UP 09 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 7.884 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 571.664 MILLION OZ..

MAY 17 WITH SILVER UP 88 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//..INVENTORY RESTS AT 565.820 MILLION OZ

MAY 14 WITH SILVER UP 28 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE GAIN OF 1.949 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV….INVENTORY RESTS AT 565.820 MILLION OZ

 

SLV INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT

JULY 8/2021      556.077 MILLION OZ

 
 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i)Peter Schiff:

 

end

EGON VON GREYERZ//MATHEW PIEPENBERG

 

END

OR LAWRIE WILLIAMS

LAWRIE WILLIAMS: Gold and silver:

LAWRIE WILLIAMS: Big demand boost for China gold in June

Chinese gold demand is really picking up nicely this year as measured by monthly withdrawals from the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE). While month by month withdrawal totals for the first five months of the year have all been higher than for the equivalent months in the pandemic hit 2020, they had been slipping compared with the pre-COVID 2019 monthly totals. But in June, for the first time this year, the monthly figure was higher than in June 2019 – and comfortably so (see table below). The cumulative half-year figure is thus still over 12% below that for H1 2019, but there has to be a strong possibility that any full year shortfall will be made up – or almost certainly lessened – in H2.

While it is still a little too early to suggest that this trend will continue, the portents are positive barring some totally unexpected change in the nation’s economic circumstances. H2 2019 was a weak period for SGE gold withdrawals – indeed month-by-month figures for 2020 from August to the year-end were actually better last year than in 2019 as China began its recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. If this year’s monthly SGE gold withdrawal figures remain in excess of last year’s, then the prospect for the full year’s figure at least matching the 1,642 tonnes recorded in 2019 remain strong, although still likely to fall far short of the 2,000 tonne plus annual figures of the several preceding years.

Thus the SGE withdrawal figures are trending higher which means that Asian demand should remain strong this year, even if not back to the 2014-17 levels. Indian demand seems to have picked up nicely in Q1, although it looks like there may have been a bit of a hiatus in April as the pandemic spread but given that gold price premiums have now re-appeared, as a reduction in COVID restrictions appears to have given demand a boost, this suggests that consumption there will have remained good into the half year and beyond.

Recently, the Thai central bank announced that it had bought 90 tonnes of gold in April and May, confirming that other Asian interest in gold remains at a high level – not just in China and India – the world’s top two gold consumers. China, of course, remains the world’s No. 1 gold producer, and the destination for its domestically- sourced gold, from its mines and as a by-product of its big base metals smelting and refining sector, is not always transparent in terms of what may be going into the general market place, or perhaps into its central bank gold reserve stock, given that it does not export any domestically produced gold. It has a track record of only reporting additions to its official gold reserves when it finds it convenient to do so, which is why many believe it holds far more gold than the 1,948 tonnes it currently reports to the IMF.

08 Jul 2021 |

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

China set to sell more base metals from reserves to ensure stable prices

(Bloomberg//GATA)

China to sell more metals from reserves to ensure stable prices

 

 

 Section: Daily Dispatches

 

From Bloomberg News
Wednesday, July 7, 2021

China, the world’s top commodities consumer, pledged to release more base metals from its state reserves after completing a first batch of sales in its latest effort to rein in surging raw material costs.

More sales will be arranged in the near term to ensure market stability, the National Food and Strategic Reserves Administration said in a statement on its website todaY

The first release of metals in over a decade included 20,000 tons of copper, 30,000 tons of zinc, and 50,000 tons of aluminum and was concluded via a public auction conducted Monday. The reserves agency didn’t reveal the prices at which the metals were sold. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-07/china-to-sell-more-metals-from-reserves-to-ensure-stable-prices

END

What else is new!! Wall Street banks charged with rigging credit default swap market

Pam and Russ Martens

Wall Street on Parade: New Mexico charges Wall Street banks with rigging credit default swaps market

 

 

 Section: Daily Dispatches

 

By Pam and Russ Martens
Wall Street on Parade
Wednesday, July 7, 2021

Last week the New Mexico attorney general’s office filed a breathtaking, 128-page anti-trust lawsuit in federal court in New Mexico on behalf of the state’s $31 billion investment fund, the New Mexico State Investment Council. The council manages a permanent endowment along with money for 23 state agencies.

The lawsuit alleges, backed by striking evidence, that the following banks have engaged in a 16-year conspiracy of “bid rigging and price fixing” in the credit default swap arket: Bank of America/Merrill Lynch; Barclays; BNP Paribas; Citigroup; Credit Suisse; Deutsche Bank; Goldman Sachs; JPMorgan Chase; Morgan Stanley; and RBS.

The lawsuit also names a swaps trade association, the International Swaps and Derivatives Association, as a defendant, noting that a “majority of ISDA’s board members” are employed by the bank defendants. The lawsuit characterizes ISDA as a “front organization.”

Two other companies involved in the allegedly rigged credit default swap protocol are also named: Creditex and Markit. The lawsuit draws attention to the fact that “Until mid-2014, Markit was majority-owned and controlled by a consortium of approximately 16 investment banks,” including each of the bank defendants (along with HSBC and UBS) who sat on its board of directors. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://wallstreetonparade.com/2021/07/state-attorney-general-files-suit-charging-wall-street-mega-banks-with-multi-year-bid-rigging-and-price-fixing-conspiracy-in-credit-default-swaps-market/

END

Hugo states that we should not listen to the rhetoric:  China and the USA are joined at the hip as they need each other to survive

Hugo 

Hugo Salinas Price: China and the U.S. are joined at the hip

 

 

 Section: Daily Dispatches

 

By Hugo Salinas Price
Mexican Civil Association for Silver
Wednesday, July 7, 2021

China and the United States regard each other as enemies. We read hostile remarks on the part of the U.S. regarding China, and China rattles its weapons. 

The United States sends warships into the Taiwan Strait, annoying China, which still regards Taiwan as part of China.

And the United States has armed to the teeth all the islands of the Western Pacific, and makes noises regarding China.

However, the fundamental, irrefutable fact is that the United States depends on China, and China depends on the U.S.

Without Chinese goods in its stores, not to mention American goods manufactured in China by American enterprises, American stores would be virtually empty.

Without a huge American market for its exports, the economy of China would collapse into unemployment. …

For the remainder of the commentary:

http://www.plata.com.mx/enUS/More/416?idioma=

end

PHYSICAL MARKETS

 

CRYPTOCURRENCIES/
should not buy any cryptos are they are going to zero….buy only gold!!
(zerohedge)

As Crypto Crashes, Goldman Buys Ether Over Bitcoin, But Gold Best As “Cheap [Currency] Debasement” Hedge

 
THURSDAY, JUL 08, 2021 – 09:59 AM

As negative-yielding debt has begun to soar again, gold has caught a bid, but cryptos have been unable to rebound…

Source: Bloomberg

And while Bitcoin has been hit recently (back below $33k)…

Source: Bloomberg

It’s Ethereum that has taken it on the chin overnight (ahead of its imminent fork)…

Source: Bloomberg

And while Goldman prefers Ether to Bitcoin (as risk-on devaluation bets), “Gold is a value buy” according to Goldman Sachs’ Jeff Currie and his Commodities Research group.

As a result of the recent liquidation of inflation tail risk fears, Goldman argues that gold is now again pricing a Goldilocks scenario of moderate inflation and continued global recovery and is thus trading at a large discount to the current real rate.

They estimate that the current gold price is consistent with a real rate of +10bps, dramatically different from the -87bps that is currently priced by the market.

However, in a scenario where the global economic recovery does not play out as expected or inflation begins to move materially above expectations, Currie sees material upside to gold given its undervaluation and low allocation from the investment community. Specifically, Goldman suggests that gold may be a good strategic purchase here for portfolio managers looking to hedge against tail risks of macro volatility.

Even more bullishly, Goldman notes that if confidence in a global recovery were to be reversed either by a larger-than-expected growth slowdown or a new virus mutation, gold would have considerable room to catch up to the current level of real rates and its dollar implied price of $2,200/toz.

For gold to outperform, Currie and his team suggest an increase in inflation has to be met by a relatively moderate reaction by the Fed, one which the market deems insufficient to cool inflation expectations. In such an environment, gold is likely to disconnect with 10-year real rates and become more sensitive to inflation expectations.

Putting that in context, they argue that if inflation continues to run at 4% and markets start to view this as more permanent, our gold to inflation relationship points to 40% upside from current levels.

With that in mind, we view gold as a relatively cheap debasement hedge offering modest upside in our base case scenario but potential to rally significantly in the event the global recovery is hampered or inflation picks up strongly and the Fed under-reacts.

Both scenarios would likely hurt risk sentiment and incentivize a shift to more defensive assets.

In our view, this implies gold can outperform cryptocurrencies, which we view as more risk-on inflation hedges.

Overall we see crypto still far from becoming a defensive long-term store of value like gold.

And confirming their previous discussion on crypto, where they proclaimed Ethereum as “The Amazon of trusted information” and likely to overtake Bitcoin, concluding that ethereum is the platform that solves economic problems here and now, while bitcoin is “a solution looking for a problem.”

Today, Currie lays out the case once again, but prefers precious metals to digital currencies for now…

Together with gold, cryptocurrencies came to be seen as hedges against excessive money printing by governments. Some, like Bitcoin, have fixed supply, while others, like Ether, have limited supply growth. This, together with some regulatory & infrastructure improvements, fueled a large rally in crypto at the end of last year exactly as gold began to underperform, leading to concerns that crypto is pushing out gold.

Things changed over the past three months as gold rebounded while the crypto rally came to an abrupt halt. This then led to the opposite view that flows have reversed and are coming out of crypto and back into gold.

In our view, gold is competing with crypto to the same extent it is competing with other risky assets such as equities and cyclical commodities. We view gold as a defensive inflation hedge and crypto as a risk-on inflation hedge. Indeed, looking at Bitcoin vs gold ratio, one can see that it is correlated with the performance of our strategy team’s risk sentiment indicator.

Therefore, to understand whether Bitcoin or some other crypto currency will work as an inflation hedge, one has to ask what effect high inflation will have on overall risk sentiment. Our strategy team notes that high inflation may negatively impact market sentiment. As such, we have concerns over whether cryptocurrencies will be able to perform well in this environment.

The major reason why crypto so far remains a speculative asset and not a defensive inflation hedge like gold is its high volatility. For gold, the volatility is smoothed due to the presence of a large non-investment demand component. In our view, development of some alternative non-investment uses would also help crypto decreases its volatility and therefore become more appealing as stores of value.

Within the crypto space, Ether currently looks like the cryptocurrency with the highest real use potential as Ethereum, the platform on which it is the native digital currency, is the most popular development platform for smart contract applications. We would therefore not be surprised if in coming years Ether, or some other cryptocurrency with more real use, overtakes Bitcoin as the dominant digital store of value.

This competition among cryptocurrencies is another risk factor that prevents them from becoming safehaven assets at this stage.

So buy gold… and if you need to buy crypto, favor ETH over BTC.

end

 
COMMODITY// GLOBAL INFLATION WATCH
 
 

-END-

Your early THURSDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs usa dollar/CLOSED DOWN AT 6.4990 

 

//OFFSHORE YUAN 6.4987  /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 28.21 PTS OR 0.79% 

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 807.49 PTS OR 2.89 %

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 248.92 PTS OR 0.88%

3. Europe stocks  ALL RED

 

USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO  92.45/Euro RISES TO 1.1835

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +.028/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 109.74/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

3c Nikkei now JUST ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 71.80 and Brent: 72.77

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE CLOSED DOWN /OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO -.320%/Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP to 0.79% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 0.34%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.09: D08GEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO : 0.74

3k Gold at $1814.20 silver at: 26.40   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 45/100 in roubles/dollar) 75.17

3m oil into the 71 dollar handle for WTI and 72 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 109.74 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9171 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 1.0853 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to 0.320%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 1.280% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 1.893%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  DOWN  TO 8.69..  VERY DEADLY

Futures, Yields Plunge Amid Global Slowdown Panic, China Tech Rout

 
THURSDAY, JUL 08, 2021 – 07:49 AM

After S&P futures printed at new all time highs on 8 of the past 9 days, one can almost feel sorry for the euphoric bulls (and meme stock traders) who woke up this morning to headlines such as this:

  • *S&P 500 INDEX FUTURES RETREAT 1.5%
  • *NASDAQ FUTURES DROP 1.5%
  • *STOXX EUROPE 600 INDEX DROPS 1.5% TO SESSION LOW

And sure enough, just one day after it appears that nothing could stop markets from exploding to recorder highs day by day by day, on Thursday morning both the reflation and growth trades were a dumpster fire, with Dow e-minis plunging 475 points, or 1.37%. S&P 500 e-minis were down 58 points, or 1.34% and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 190 points, or 1.3%, the VIX jumped above 20 after trading at 14 just a few days earlier and 10Y yields dropped as low as 1.25%. Bitcoin tumbled back down to $32,000.

At the same time, the collapse in yields accelerate, with 10Y yields tumbling as low as 1.25% while 30Y dropped below 1.90% for the first time since February as inflation expectations eased.

The catalyst for the rout? The same we predicted more than a month ago when we warned that the most important credit impulse in the world had collasped – China’s slowdown, now confirmed by Beijing itself which is preparing to cut RRR rates in coming weeks as proof positive even China is willing to risk much higher inflation to offset an economic slowdown. Not helping is also China’s widening crackdown on the tech sector in China coupled with doctored – pardon the pun – fears of pandemic resurgence via the delta covid variant.

“The message markets are sending is that the economic situation is not strong enough to pull back on stimulus and start the tapering process, as the Fed has signaled it will do,” said Ricardo Gil, head of asset allocation at Trea Asset Management in Madrid.

Virtually every sector was down, led by Chinese listed stocks such as e-commerce giant Alibaba Group dropping 2.6%, while internet search engine Baidu shed 3.8%. Didi Global, whose app takedown by the Chinese government had sparked a recent selloff, fell 6.5%, while FAANG gigacaps dropped between 0.9% to 1.7% despite the continued drop in yields as traders now use their FAANG gains to offset margin calls elsewhere. Meme stocks were hit especially hard as all upward momentum was crashed.Here are some of the biggest U.S. movers today:

  • Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks like Riot Blockchain (RIOT) and Marathon Digital (MARA) fall 7% and 6.2% respectively in premarket trading with Bitcoin sinking back below $33,000 per token.
  • Dare Bioscience (DARE) advances 12% in premarket trading after it announced Wednesday it had been awarded with a Gates Foundation grant of up to $48.95m.
  • Didi (DIDI) shares fall 6% in premarket trading, extending the losses suffered by the ride- hailing giant since its U.S. IPO. Other Asian stocks listed in New York also drop following a day of declines for tech companies in Hong Kong.
  • Retail-trader favorites mostly decline in U.S. premarket trading, with AMC Entertainment (AMC) dropping 7.7%, ContextLogic (WISH) sliding 5.3% and cannabis firm Sundial Growers (SNDL) falling 7%.
  • SeaSpine Holdings (SPNE) jumps 15% as Piper Sandler sees “great things” going forward after the medical-technology company announced Wednesday it has received FDA clearance for its 7D percutaneous spine module for minimally invasive surgery.
  • Tessco Technologies (TESS) shares soar 39% in premarket trading after the company said Wednesday evening it expects 2022 1Q total revenue of $105m, 9% higher than a year earlier.

The selloff was global, with the MSCI’s index of global stocks down 0.5%, extending early session losses and tracking a 1.7% decline in the equivalent index of Asia shares outside Japan to its lowest level since mid-May.

“We believe valuations to be frothy not just in India but in different geographies across the world,” Nikhil Kamath, Co-Founder and CIO at asset manager True Beacon, said. “We are hedged as much as 55% today, our net exposure to the market is only about 45%.”

In tandem with Beijing’s tech crackdown, guidance toward rate cuts from Chinese policymakers has also spooked some investors by highlighting softness in China’s economy – weak loan growth and slow demand – which threatens the pace of the global recovery. As reported yesterdaythe Chinese cabinet said on Wednesday that policymakers will use timely cuts in the bank reserve requirement ratio (RRR) to support the real economy, especially small firms. The yield on 10-year Chinese sovereign debt posted its sharpest fall in nearly a year on Thursday, dropping to 2.998%, the lowest since August.

“Worries about variant strains have hurt investor confidence that the pandemic’s effects on the global economy are truly past us,” Nicholas Colasand Jessica Rabe of DataTrek Research wrote in a note. “Our working theory is that we’re in the middle of a modest global growth scare.”

European stocks tumbled, with the Stoxx 600 dropping 1.8%, led by the Stoxx Europe 600 Basic Resources Index which dropped as much as 2.8%, as broad risk-off mood prevails following the Fed Minutes. Metals fell on a stronger dollar, while China signaled more efforts to help firms deal with soaring commodities prices. Here are some of the biggest European movers today:

  • Knorr-Bremse shares climb as much as 10%, the most of record, after the company dropped its pursuit of a stake in Hella.
  • Betsson rises as much as 10% in the steepest intraday gain since October last year, making the stock the second-best performer in Stockholm’s all-share index on Thursday.
  • Danske Bank gains as much as 4.7% after the company raised its full-year profit outlook as Scandinavian countries emerge from Covid lockdowns with their economies in better shape than initially feared.
  • Deliveroo rises as much as 5.4% after the food delivery company increased its transaction growth forecast for the year. JPMorgan sees “small upgrades” to consensus estimates.
  • TeamViewer slumps as much as 14%, the most in more than 2 months, after the company reported what Morgan Stanley called a “softer-than- expected” 2Q, with trends that underscored 1Q’s weaker performance being intensified.
  • Chr Hansen falls as much as 7.5%, the most since January 2020, after net profit and organic growth missed estimates.
  • Carrefour drops as much as 4.2% after Bernstein called the French grocer a “dying behemoth” and rated the shares underperform as it initiates coverage of the sector.
  • Oncopeptides falls as much as 22%,the most since December 2018, following an updated study for its melflufen drug. While the trial now meets a previously missed primary endpoint, a higher risk of death is concerning, Jefferies said.
  • Electrocomponents falls as much as 4%, despite what analysts said was a robust trading update, with Shore Capital saying higher costs will push margins lower.

Asian equities dropped amid continued losses in Hong Kong-listed Chinese tech stocks and concern over rising coronavirus cases in various countries. Tencent and Alibaba were once again the biggest drags on the MSCI Asia Pacific Index, which headed for its seventh loss in eight sessions. Hong Kong led declines around the region, with the Hang Seng Index falling 3% on its way to eight straight losses and its longest losing streak since 2015. Stocks in China also fell amid the broad regional selloff. China’s State Council signaled the central bank could make more liquidity available for banks to boost lending to businesses, including by cutting the reserve requirement ratio. The country’s rising private-sector debt amid credit expansion coupled with accelerating inflation “may conspire to decelerate economic growth,” CICC analysts wrote in a note. Tech Stocks Drag Key China Index in Hong Kong Toward Bear Market Japanese stocks slid as the government planned to declare a new state of emergency in Tokyo, and as some stock positions were expected to be liquidated to pay dividends on exchange-traded funds. South Korean stocks fell as daily virus cases hit a new high and Thai stocks dropped as the government is mulling a partial lockdown. Malaysia’s benchmark was on track to enter a correction as the biggest party in the ruling coalition withdrew from the government. Stocks extended losses as the country’s central bank kept interest rates on hold

Indian stocks declined in line with Asian peers as concerns over the spread of Covid-19 variants hurting economic recovery and business activities sapped risk sentiment. The S&P BSE Sensex fell by 1% to 52,531.62 as of 3:09 p.m. in Mumbai after surging to a fresh record on Wednesday. The NSE Nifty 50 Index also plunges by a similar magnitude. All but one of the 19 sector sub-indexes compiled by BSE Ltd. fell, led by a gauge of metal companies. Tata Steel was the worst performer on the Sensex, falling 2.8%, followed by 2.6% decline in Bajaj Auto. Of the 30 stocks in benchmark Sensex, 28 traded lower. ICICI Bank and HDFC Bank contributed the most to the index’s decline. Tata Consultancy, which will kickoff corporate earnings season for June quarter later Thursday, also traded lower, easing 0.5%. “The earnings season would provide some direction to the market and offer cues about the economic revival,” Siddhartha Khemka, head of retail research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services, wrote in a note. “Consistent earnings delivery versus expectations are critical for further outperformance in our view.”

In rates, global bonds rallied, with the U.S. 10-year yield down around 7 basis points and the German 10-year yield down 3 basis points, extending price moves seen earlier in the week and leading to a “serious debate” about their cause, said Deutsche Bank analyst Jim Reid. Treasury yields were lower by nearly 8bps across long-end of the curve, flattening 2s10s by ~5bp, 5s30s by ~3bp; 10-year yields drop as low as 1.248%, below 200-DMA for the first time since November, while 30-year yields reach 1.855%; 2s10s spread touched 104.4bp, flattest since Feb. 12.

Some consider the move a sign the market is re-pricing the potential for the economy to be hit by secular stagnation after the pandemic, while others point to technical drivers including reduced supply from the Fed and higher demand to buy.

Mark Haefele, Chief Investment Officer, UBS Global Wealth Management, said despite the dip in U.S. yields, the Swiss adviser to many of the world’s super-rich expected the benchmark to bounce back. “With the expectation of a taper announcement from the Fed over the next few months, robust economic growth driving continued strength of nonfarm payrolls, and further [post-pandemic economic] reopening, we expect the 10-year yield to reach 2% by the end of the year.”

In currency markets, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index hovered near a three-month high and the dollar traded mixed versus its Group-of-10 peers and Treasuries rallied as soon as London trading got underway. A wave of long-end buying appeared after a calm Asia session, with a spike of activity in long bond futures driving the move. Haven currencies the yen and the Swiss franc led an advance while commodity currencies were the worst performers; the euro inched higher to trade above $1.18 as it recovered after touching a three-month low Wednesday and European bonds rallied, yet underperformed Treasuries. The pound fell, trading near the middle of the G-10 pack, with analysts focused on the nature of Britain’s economic recovery amid few short-term U.K.-specific catalysts; British travelers who have received both doses of a coronavirus vaccine will no longer need to isolate when they return home from moderate-risk countries, under a plan officials expect to come into force this month. The Australian dollar hit a new low for the year after RBA Governor Philip Lowe highlighted the importance of achieving full employment for driving inflation. The yen advanced to the strongest in over two weeks with investors liquidating stale long dollar positions through technical support and amid losses in key Asian stock indexes; Japanese bond futures rose to an 11-month high as U.S. Treasury yields fell.

Cryptocurrencies were sold on yet another round of negative comments from Chinese policymakers and bitcoin fell to a more than one-week low.

Oil was under pressure as investors awaited further signals from the OPEC+ alliance on production plans after a breakdown in talks. Brent futures were last down 1.1% at $72.65 a barrel while U.S. crude fell 1.3%. Iron ore futures dropped after China signaled more efforts to help firms deal with soaring commodities prices and the nation pushed ahead with its pledge to clean up the emissions-heavy steel industry.

Looking at the day ahead now, and the main highlight will be the release of the ECB’s strategy review and President Lagarde’s press conference. Otherwise, there’s also the release of the ECB’s minutes from their June meeting, whilst the ECB’s Hernandez de Cos is speaking as well. On the data side, releases include the German trade balance for May and the weekly initial jobless claims from the US.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 1.0% to 4,304.75
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 1.3% to 453.54
  • MXAP down 1.1% to 202.60
  • MXAPJ down 1.6% to 674.67
  • Nikkei down 0.9% to 28,118.03
  • Topix down 0.9% to 1,920.32
  • Hang Seng Index down 2.9% to 27,153.13
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.8% to 3,525.50
  • Sensex down 1.0% to 52,524.53
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.2% to 7,341.43
  • Kospi down 1.0% to 3,252.68
  • Brent Futures down 1.5% to $72.35/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.5% to $1,812.12
  • U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 92.59
  • German 10Y yield fell 4.3 bps to -0.341%
  • Euro up 0.2% to $1.1811

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • European Central Bank policy makers have agreed to raise their inflation goal to 2% and allow room to overshoot it when needed, according to officials familiar with the matter. The decision marks a significant change from the previous target of “below, but close to, 2%,” which some policy makers felt was too vague
  • British companies are raising wages more rapidly to overcome difficulties in attracting staff, adding to upward pressures on inflation as pandemic restrictions ease. Starting salary increases approached a seven-year high, with all regions of the U.K. experiencing rapid rises, according to data from the Recruitment and Employment Confederation, KPMG and IHS Markit
  • The global death toll from Covid-19 has reached 4 million, as a growing disparity in vaccine access leaves poorer nations exposed to outbreaks of more infectious strains
  • Pacific Investment Management Co. has raised about $7 billion for two credit strategies from investors hunting for yield, according to a person familiar with the matter.

Quick look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asian equity markets were mostly subdued as tailwinds from the modest gains in the US following the slightly dovish perceived FOMC Minutes, were offset by the virus concerns which threatens additional restrictions for the region and amid lingering China-related frictions. ASX 200 (+0.2%) was just about kept afloat by resilience in cyclicals but with upside capped after a fresh YTD high in COVID-19 infections for New South Wales and after Beijing warned that smearing China will backfire on trade partners. Nikkei 225 (-0.9%) was subdued by the recent currency strength and with Japanese Bank Lending at its slowest pace of growth in more than eight years. In addition, the latest securities flows data showed foreign investors more than doubled their net selling of Japanese stocks last week and virus concerns persisted with the government considering re-imposing a state of emergency in Tokyo. KOSPI (-1.0%) failed to maintain its initial gains after South Korea extended social distancing rules in greater Seoul for an additional week and warned of stricter measures if cases don’t decline, while the latest number of daily infections printed a new domestic record high. Hang Seng (-2.9%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.8%) were pressured amid ongoing tensions as the US State Department called out China again for its atrocities in Xinjiang and with the House Foreign Affairs Committee said to be looking at legislation to respond to China’s crackdown on Didi which was removed from WeChat and Alipay apps for new users. China was also reportedly considering closing the loophole used by tech giants for US IPOs and FTSE Russell announced it will remove more Chinese stocks from indices following user feedback regarding the updated US Executive Order. However, some losses in the mainland were stemmed on future easing speculation after China’s Cabinet said it is to use RRR cuts in a timely manner to support the real economy but will not resort to flood-like stimulus and press reports also suggested China may reduce its RRR in September to support the economy. Finally, 10yr JGBs were higher as they took impetus from global peers and with the risk averse tone spurring haven demand although retraced some of the gains following a soft 5yr JGB auction, while bonds in China were lifted which dragged the Chinese 10yr yield to its lowest since August 2020 amid speculation of a RRR cut later this year.

Top Asian News

  • Tech Stocks Drag Key China Index in Hong Kong Toward Bear Market
  • India Supercharged Its Economy 30 Years Ago. Covid Unraveled It
  • MANDATE: Uzbekistan 144A/Reg S 10Y $ Eurobond, 3/5Y SDG Eurobond
  • Didi Global Sinks Again, Extending Losses Amid China Crackdown

Yesterday’s recovery in European equities has turned out to be somewhat fleeting at this stage of the session with stocks in the region firmly in the red (Stoxx 600 -1.7%). In terms of the macro narrative, not a great deal has changed since yesterday’s close as participants continue to digest several ongoing potential headwinds for the market such as the spread of the delta variant, ongoing tensions between US and China, a slowing down of certain macro datapoints, tensions within OPEC+, global labour shortages and China’s tech crackdown. That said, developments on the central bank front over the past 24 hours such as the FOMC minutes, touted ECB strategic review and potential China RRR cut have leant on the dovish side. On the ECB review, reports suggest that policymakers will tweak their current inflation goal to target a more symmetrical approach around 2%; albeit rate hikes are seen as some way off regardless of the adjustment. Stateside, stocks are also being sold this morning with the ES and RTY continuing to lag with losses of 1.5% and 1.8% respectively. In terms of performance within Europe, all sectors have fallen victim to the selling pressure with heavy losses observed in cyclicals such as Basic Resources, Autos and Banks. The latter has been dealt a blow by the increasingly unfavourable yield environment for the banking sector as the German 10yr yield has slipped below -30bps with some desks suggesting that a test of -35bps is likely on the cards. In terms of stocks specifics, Deliveroo (+4.4%) have avoided the broad selling pressure in the market after reporting an 88% Y/Y increase in Q2, which subsequently prompted the Co. to raise guidance for 2021. Knorr-Bremse (+6.3%) is another gainer in the region after stopping its pursuit for a 60% stake in Hella (-1.9%). Danske Bank (+2.4%) is an outlier in the financial sector after upgrading its FY21 net income guidance on account of a ‘faster than anticipated macroeconomic recovery’. To the downside, laggards are mainly comprised of those companies within the aforementioned underperforming sectors, however, of note, Swatch (-4.3%) sits at the foot of the SMI after news that Logitech will replace the Co. in the index as of September 20th.

Top European News

  • U.K.’s Johnson Didn’t Break Rules Over Luxury Trip to Mustique
  • Sunak Hints U.K. Government May Drop Pensions Triple Lock
  • Putin’s ‘Asymmetric’ Arsenal Presages More Hacking Attacks
  • Danske Raises Guidance as Nordic Economies Exit Lockdowns

In FX, there is little doubt that the Greenback failed to receive a further fillip from last night’s FOMC minutes that were more balanced than the policy meeting itself given price action since the release, but the Dollar is also losing momentum amidst renewed risk aversion that is boosting the Yen, Franc and Gold to a greater extent. Indeed, the index has retreated from its lofty midweek perch (92.844) and into a tighter 92.792-463 band, albeit retaining an underlying bid just above yesterday’s 92.421 low ahead of US jobless claims data that represents the first new snapshot of the labour market following a somewhat mixed BLS report. Meanwhile, the Yen is on a tear and triggered stops in double quick time through 110.00 after breaching 110.50 earlier to expose June highs at 109.72 and 109.60 (from the 21st and 14th respectively), the Franc has snapped back above 0.9200 and Gold has reclaimed Usd 1800/0z+ status. On the flip-side, the so called activity, high beta and commodity currencies are in a tailspin, with the Loonie towards the base of a 1.2574-1.2471 range alongside an even sharper relapse in crude prices, the Aussie nearer 0.7425 than 0.7489 following dovish-leaning rhetoric from RBA Governor Lowe overnight and the Kiwi hovering above 0.6950 after losing grip of the 0.7000 handle.

  • EUR/GBP – The Euro has taken advantage of the Buck’s decline and relative weakness in the Pound on various grounds (beyond Wembley where only Sterling took a tumble), as it bounces firmly from sub-1.1800 and under 0.8550 respectively, while Cable remains shy of 1.3800 in the absence of anything UK specific bar another hot house price survey from RICS. Conversely, Eur/Usd and other Euro crosses have a host of ECB events and potential market-movers to look forward to including the Strategy Review, minutes of the June convene and press conference from President Lagarde.
  • SCANDI/EM – Another big Brent-related blow for the Nok that is trying to stop the rot below 10.4000 vs the Eur, while the Rub is also ruing the latest oil spill beneath 75.0000 against the Usd and Mxn heads into Banxico minutes below 20.0000 yet again. Elsewhere, the Cnh and Cny are closer to 6.5000 than 6.4500 in wake of remarks from China’s Cabinet alluding to more RRR easing and the Brl looks primed for more depreciation through 5.2000 after Brazilian President Bolsonaro said he may not accept the 2022 election result if the current voting system is maintained.

As mentioned above, while the overall narrative has not changed significantly there are plenty of focus points for participants to be concerned over; as such, WTI and Brent are pressured on the session dropping below yesterday’s trough and USD 71.00/bbl for WTI August’21 at worst (vs high USD 72.36/bbl). Updates explicitly for the complex since last nights private inventory report have been sparse; to recap, the headline crude printed a larger than expected draw of -8.0mln vs exp. -4.0mln while the broader products were somewhat mixed though the report had little effect on price action. In terms of OPEC+, the Saudi Oil Minister has reportedly given up on the prospect of a rescheduled OPEC+ meeting prior to August given their disagreement with the UAE. As a reminder, the current deal will expire at month-end at which point all producers would theoretically be able to set their quotas as they see fit, likely resulting in significant price pressure. Elsewhere, geopolitical updates saw the US State Department say they expect a seventh round of nuclear discussions with Iran; however, this is perhaps not imminent as the Russian representative to Vienna says the resumption date for JCPOA talks on Iran has not been set as Iran needs more time post-elections. Adding that this is normal but the sooner talks resume the better. Moving to metals, spot gold and silver are bid this morning as headlines centre on the reflation trade fizzling out and yields are pressured across the curve with pronounced bull-flattening occurring stateside and similar action in EGBs as well. Currently, the metals are holding above USD 1800/oz and USD 26/oz respectively, near session highs. Elsewhere, base metals have pulled back given the broader risk tone in a continuation of APAC performance, with copper for instance now below overnight support at USD 4.30/Ib.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: June Continuing Claims, est. 3.35m, prior 3.47m
  • 8:30am: July Initial Jobless Claims, est. 350,000, prior 364,000
  • 3pm: May Consumer Credit, est. $18b, prior $18.6b

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

The screens look a bit blurry this morning after a late night watching the football. England managed to reach their first major football final in 55 years albeit via a tense match, extra-time, a fortunate penalty, players that I dislike passionately when they play against Liverpool, and a home crowd the size of which might lead the casual observer to wonder whether covid was actually just a Pam Ewing style bad dream. The final is on Sunday night and my family are ALL going to Scotland for a couple of days to see a friend of my wife. So I’m playing 18 holes in the morning at one course, 18 in the afternoon at another and then will cook myself a steak, open (half) a bottle of wine and watch the football. As the old advert used to say… “If Carlsberg did …..”

Although England’s hope are slowly inflating, for markets, the main story was once again the continued retreat of the reflation trade, which has had serious implications across multiple asset classes and led to another big rally for sovereign bonds. By the close, yields on US Treasuries were down a further -3.2bps to 1.316%, which is their lowest closing level since late February, and also marks their biggest 2-day decline since the aftermath of the Fed hawkish pivot back in mid-June. This proved good news for the dollar as well, which advanced +0.11% yesterday to hit a 3-month high, while gold (+0.36%) also rose for a 6th successive session to move back above $1800/oz. For equities it was a more mixed picture, but in keeping with concerns about the recovery from the pandemic, some of the most Covid-sensitive assets were among the worst hit.

As I mentioned yesterday, there’s a serious debate (including here at DB) about what’s driving these rates moves. On the one hand, there’s a case that this is driven by fundamentals, with our head of FX Research George Saravelos supporting the view that this rally is coming about because markets are increasingly re-pricing secular stagnation themes again after the pandemic. That would certainly fit with the further -2.8bps flattening in the 2s10s yield curve yesterday (which historically has been fairly reliable as a recessionary indicator), as it joined the 10yr yield in reaching its lowest level since mid-February. You can read more on George’s ideas in a piece out yesterday (link here).

But on the other hand, there’s absolutely no doubt that the technical factors are also strong, which is something I covered in my latest chart of the day (link here). We looked at the supply and demand for treasuries and found that on a rolling 3-month basis the entire net supply of treasuries had recently been taken down by the Fed on a net basis. This is extremely rare even in a QE world and also remarkable given it’s coincided with the biggest fiscal giveaway in history. And to compound those technicals, this has occurred in a period of exceptionally strong demand from banks and foreigners.

To add to our perspectives on this, we started a flash poll (click here to answer) yesterday which will remain open for a few more hours after this email goes out, where we want to find out your opinion. Do you think the rally is thanks to secular stagnation, technicals, the delta variant/Covid, or the FOMC? There’s a sliding scale for each variable so you can choose a combination if you want. It should take seconds to complete, and we’ll be releasing the answers we have later today.

In terms of yesterday’s other moves, global equities recovered their losses from the previous day, with the S&P 500 (+0.34%) and the NASDAQ (+0.01%) both at fresh all-time highs, as the STOXX 600 (+0.78%) closed less than 0.1% shy of its own record. Within this, the sectoral moves were quite revealing, with the S&P 500 Airlines index down -2.12% as it remained on track for a 6th successive weekly decline, whilst in Europe, the STOXX Travel & Leisure index fell a further -1.46% yesterday. So evidence that some of the market dislocation of late has been a response to the latest Covid-19 situation and the more infectious delta variant. Technology shares have also benefited as the drop in yields has aided high-growth valuations and tech hardware (+1.53%) was the best performing industry in the S&P. Otherwise, small-cap stocks continued to struggle, with the Russell 2000 down -0.95%, as did US energy stocks (-1.73%) against the backdrop of lower oil prices, which continued to struggle as uncertainty over the OPEC+ meeting went on, leading to a further decline in both Brent crude (-1.48%) and WTI (-1.59%).

Last night also saw the release of the latest FOMC minutes, which showed officials did indeed discuss tapering asset purchases during the June meeting. According to the minutes, ”various participants mentioned that they expected the conditions for beginning to reduce the pace of asset purchases to be met somewhat earlier than they had anticipated at previous meetings.” On the topic of asset purchases, some members saw benefits to reducing MBS buying “more quickly or earlier than Treasury purchases in light of valuation pressures in housing markets.” However there was some disagreement here with others seeing reducing both assets “commensurately” as more preferable. The FOMC also acknowledged that a majority of participants viewed inflation risks as now tilted to the upside, “because of concerns that supply disruptions and labor shortages might linger for longer and might have larger or more persistent effects on prices and wages than they currently assumed.” Markets were very steady following the press release as Treasury yields and equities barely moved on the news, while the US dollar index fell sharply to flat on the day before reversing much of the move.

Staying with central banks, we found out last night that the ECB will be announcing the results of their long-awaited strategy review at 12pm London time, ahead of a press conference from President Lagarde at 13:30. According to a Bloomberg report last night, ECB policy makers have agreed to increase to their inflation goal to 2.0% and allow prices to overshoot when needed. This in some ways mirrors the Fed announcement at Jackson Hole last summer, and comes as a result of some ECB policy makers fearing that the current phrasing of “close to 2% over the medium term” was vague and led to tighter policy expectations sooner. All eyes on the details today. The news of the announcement came out after the European close, but ahead of that sovereign bonds had rallied in line with their US counterparts, with yields on 10yr bunds (-3.1bps), OATs (-2.5bps) and BTPs (-0.3bps) all moving lower.

Asian markets have taken another leg lower overnight as countries in the region struggle to bring the spread of the delta variant under control whilst also lagging on vaccinations. The Nikkei (-0.74%), Hang Seng (-2.00%), Shanghai Comp (-0.57%) and Kospi (-0.67%) are all down. Futures on the S&P 500 are also down -0.21% and those on the Stoxx 50 are -0.11%. In Fx, the New Zealand dollar and Australian dollar are down -0.36% and -0.31% respectively with part of that decline coming from the greenback’s strength (+0.11%).

Meanwhile in China, it was reported yesterday by the state broadcaster CCTV that the country could cut its reserve requirement ratio, with CCTV citing a State Council meeting chaired by Premier Li Keqiang. The potential move would come on the back of some recent data surprising on the downside, including the June PMIs, so all eyes will be on the Q2 GDP release in a week’s time to see what that shows on the state of the recovery.

Turning to the pandemic, Japan’s virus policy head Yasutoshi Nishimura said overnight that an advisory panel had approved an emergency in Tokyo from July 12 to August 22, which would cover the entire period of the Olympics. This is also likely to lead to no spectators at the games. Japan’s PM Suga is set to give a news conference on the decision at 7:00 p.m. Japan time. South Korea is also discussing raising its virus restriction to the highest level in Seoul. South Korea has reported 1,275 cases, a daily record. Meanwhile in the UK, the number of daily cases exceeded 30k for the first time since January, but there was a further slowing of the weekly growth rate that leaves cases over the last 7 days “only” up +43% on the previous week, compared to +74% last Friday. There was also some fresh antibody data from the UK’s Office for National Statistics, which found that 90% of the adult population in England were estimated to have tested positive for antibodies in the week beginning 14 June. Over in the US, the CDC estimates that the delta variant is now 52% of all new cases as of the start of this week. However the variant’s spread varies greatly by geography with the strain accounting for over 80% of cases in the Midwestern states while “just” 30% in the Pacific Northwest. Regional differences in vaccination rates are being used to suggest a difficult autumn and winter in places in the US.

On the data front, the main highlight yesterday was the release of the US job openings for May, which came in at a lower-than-expected 9.209m (vs. 9.325m expected). That said, this was still a fresh record given the downward revisions to April, so demonstrates the continued availability of positions (from May) and the difficulty employers are facing in hiring right now. One point of interest was the decline in the quits rate to 2.5% from 2.8% in June, which measures those voluntarily leaving their jobs and is often used as a gauge of how confident workers are feeling. Separately in Europe, German industrial production unexpectedly fell -0.3% in May (vs. +0.5% expected), while Italian retail sales grew by a smaller-than-expected +0.2% (vs. +3.0% expected).

To the day ahead now, and the main highlight will be the release of the ECB’s strategy review and President Lagarde’s press conference. Otherwise, there’s also the release of the ECB’s minutes from their June meeting, whilst the ECB’s Hernandez de Cos is speaking as well. On the data side, releases include the German trade balance for May and the weekly initial jobless claims from the US.

end

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

 

i)THURSDAY MORNING/WEDNESDAY  NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 28.21  PTS OR 0.79%   //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 807.49 PTS OR 2.89%      /The Nikkei closed DOWN 248.92 pts or 0.88%  //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .20%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN TO 6.4990  /Oil DOWN TO 71.80 dollars per barrel for WTI and 72.77 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED /ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED  DOWN AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.4990. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.4987/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%//

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

NORTH KOREA//USA/SOUTH KOREA

 

END

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

JAPAN/

This should be interesting!! the sponsors now abandon Toyko Olympics as spectators are officially banned form events.

(zerohedge)

Sponsors Abandon Tokyo Olympics As Spectators Officially Banned From Events

 
THURSDAY, JUL 08, 2021 – 10:14 AM

Update (1000ET): Just as we expected, the Japanese Olympic Committee have confirmed that Tokyo venues for the pandemic-delayed Tokyo 2020 Olympics will not have spectators due to the city’s coronavirus state of emergency through the Games.

The announcement was made following a meeting of five Olympic and Japanese government groups responsible for the Games.

Japanese Olympic Committee Seiko Hashimoto said due to the pandemic, organizers have “no choice but to hold the Games in a limited way.”

Venues in Tokyo, Kanagawa, Chiba, and Saitama prefectures would be “completely unattended”, the Asahi Shimbun had reported citing government sources.

The four areas which span metropolitan Tokyo and its surrounds are home to all the major Olympic venues, including the Olympic Stadium where the athletics will be held and the Tokyo Aquatics Centre, where the swimming will begin on July 24.

Events taking place outside of Tokyo in areas not under the most severe restrictions are still being considered for spectators.

*  *  *

Now that Japanese leaders have imposed yet another state of emergency on Tokyo (the fourth since the start of the pandemic), spectators have been officially barred from all Olympic events.

As a result, Reuters reports that many Olympic sponsors – who had hoped to cash in on their sponsorship by hawking food, drinks and goods to spectators at the live events – are pulling out of the event.

But it’s not just smaller sponsors and vendors who are balking now that spectators are being excluded. More than a dozen companies, including Canon, Tokio Marine and Nicido Fire Insurance and Ajinomoto are also dropping out.

The decision “highlights the delicate situation for sponsors who have tied themselves to a Games now hit by the COVID-19 pandemic and public opposition.”

Pretty much all of the 60 or so corporate sponsors feel like they’re not getting their money’s worth. Together, they paid a record of more than $3 billion for the sponsorship rights, with another $200MM spent to extend their contracts after the Games.

Unlike “worldwide partners” with multi-year deals, domestic sponsors are only involved in the Tokyo Games.

They have been frustrated by what one of the sources described as “impromptu” decisions by organisers, particularly the months-long delay on whether spectators would be allowed.

With only two weeks to go until the start of the Games, Japan is expected to ban all spectators as it prepares to declare a state of emergency for Tokyo that will run through its hosting of the event. Tokyo recently reported 920 coronavirus cases in one day, the most since May.

“We are finally making decisions on our own, without waiting for the organisers’ cue,” said one source, an employee at one sponsor, who, like other people interviewed, declined to be identified because the information is not public.

“It’s a ‘damned if you do and damned if you don’t’ situation for sponsors, but everyone is starting to take action.”

The Games will run between Friday July 23 and Sunday Aug. 8.

end

3 C CHINA

CHINA/

China’s economy is sputtering just like the rest of the globe.  China is now preparing to cut rates.

(zerohedge)

While Fed Mulls Tapering, China Prepares To Cut Rates As Economy Stalls

 
WEDNESDAY, JUL 07, 2021 – 07:05 PM

With the Fed debating whether to keep talking about tapering or finally do something about it – even if that something means injecting another trillion of liquidity into the economy by the end of 2022 while nipping and tucking $10 billion per month here and there – China is starting to move in the other direction. 

With China’s economy rapidly cooling, as the latest sharp drop the Caixin Services PMI demonstrated, after badly missing consensus expectations and poised on the edge of contraction…

… a move which was predicted here months ago when we discussed the collapse in China’s all important credit impulse…

… it is not just traders that are speculating that China’s next move may be a rate cut – Beijing itself is starting to make loud noises.

Pouring gasoline into the debate whether Chinese and U.S. monetary policy will diverge further, overnight a former central bank official said that China should guide market interest rates lower to support economic growth and ease funding pressure on local governments.

Reasonable rate cuts also would help create space for the PBOC to tighten policy if needed in the future, in order to cope with an expected weakening in the yuan, Sheng Songcheng, former head of statistics at the PBOC, said in a column published late on Tuesday on Sina Finance, a financial news outlet according to Reuters

“It’s necessary to keep liquidity reasonable and sufficient, and guide the rational and moderate decrease of market interest rates,” Sheng said, adding that economic growth is likely to slow to 5-6% in the second half of the year, from an expected pace of around 8% in April-June.

Cutting rate is not just to counteract the coming economic slowdown, it’s also to give China more space to hike when the need arises. According to Sheng, policy tightening in the future will help ease depreciation pressure on the yuan caused by rising capital outflows from China once the U.S. Federal Reserve starts to tighten policy from emergency pandemic levels, Sheng said.

Unlike the Fed, which surprised investors last month by signalling it could start raising interest rates in 2023 or even next year, earlier than expected, Chinese officials have pledged to make no sharp policy u-turns and markets expect key rates will be kept unchanged through at least this year. And while a Chinese central bank official said in April that policy changes by the Fed will have a limited impact on China’s financial markets, Beijing appears to be getting increasingly concerned about a world in which the US is hiking while China’s economy is too weak to follow.

Sure enough, shortly after Sheng’s comments, in the weekly State Council meeting on Wednesday, China’s Premier Li announced a few measures to “increase support to the real economy”, including “using RRR cuts to support the real economy” and a few other policy measures aiming at increasing income and improving social security support to vulnerable groups of the labor market. Here are key quotes from the meeting:

  • In response to the impact on business operations from the fast increase of commodity prices, and under the broad guideline of “avoiding flooding the economy with liquidity”, policymakers would use monetary policy tools such as RRR cuts to increase support to the real economy and in particular small to medium-sized companies;
  • The statement highlighted the need to push enterprises to pay wages “timely and in full amount”, and to increase social security support to “flexible employment” such as employment in the delivery industry.
  • For migrant workers, the statement also highlighted the need to enhance support for their health care needs, such as “further improving basic medical insurance settlement of medical expenses incurred by the insured away from home”.

As Goldman’s Maggie Wei writes, in past experiences, PBOC would usually, but not always, follow up with actual RRR cuts after the mention by the State Council on “using RRR cuts” to support the economy. For example, PBOC cut RRR within one to two weeks after the State Council meeting’s hints in 2019 to early 2020, though the exception was in Jun 2020 when PBOC stayed put after the State Council meeting mentioned RRR cuts. That said, the absence of mentioning “using RRR cuts to support the economy” for the past year makes today’s mention notable and probably increases the chance of an actual implementation of the cut in our view. Incidentally, Goldman’s baseline expectation is an RRR cut over the next few weeks.

Understandably, Chinese treasury futures rose sharply on Wednesday afternoon on Sheng’s comments (and ahead of the RRR commentary). 10-year bond futures surged by the most in over six months after a former central bank official made the case for a rate cut in the second half of the year to safeguard the nation’s recovery and deal with the Federal Reserve’s future tightening.

10-year bond futures rise as much as 0.42 to 98.72; biggest increase since Dec. 22, 2020, although still well below where China’s bond futures traded for much of the post-covid period. At the same time, overnight repo rates rose as much as 16bps to 2.07%, the highest since June 30, 7-day repo rate rises 9bps to 2.12%

To be sure, not everyone is convinced that a rate cut is coming. Ting Lu, chief China economist at Nomura, told reporters on Wednesday that he expected the central bank to maintain a modest tightening stance, with no rate cuts or rises expected in the second half.

“China’s policy response towards the COVID-19 pandemic has been different from the past rounds of easing, and one key factor is the strength in exports so that policymakers did not need to resort to mass stimulus in property and infrastructure sectors,” he said.

Michelle Lam, chief China economist at Societe Generale said that “from the real economy’s perspective, I don’t think we are there yet to discuss rate cuts” adding that we “need to see much weaker data especially on the private-sector recovery.” In Lam’s view, “the domestic economic situation should still be a primary focus for monetary policy.”

Lam also said that if China sees rising capital outflows they could reintroduce capital control measures as they did in the past; in fact the aggressive crackdown on crypto may be a hint of the coming rate cuts in China even as the rest of the world aggressively hikes to contain soaring prices.

As for how China – if indeed it does go ahead with a rate cut – it remains a mystery how or why Beijing is convinced that inflation will remain transitory and that a rate cut won’t push prices even higher, sparking public unrest and anger.

end

Two more Chinese firms pull their USA IPO

(zerohedge)

2 More Chinese Firms Pull US IPO Plans Amid Fallout From Didi Disaster

 
THURSDAY, JUL 08, 2021 – 12:13 PM

Less than a week after Beijing pulled off its egregious rug-pull of the Didi IPO – after which the world learned that Beijing had ‘suggested’ to the company’s management that the CCP wasn’t entirely comfortable with their plans to list in the US – more Chinese firms are abandoning plans to list in New York as the world wonders whether the US has seen the last listing of a Chinese company.

Following reports from earlier this week claiming TikTok-owner ByteDance had decided to abandon plans to list in the US in favor of listing in Hong Kong, two more Chinese firms called off their US IPOs on Thursday. They include Alibaba-backed LinkDoc and SoftBank- and Tencent-backed fitness app Keep.

LinkDoc had planned to raise up to $210MM on the Nasdaq, but it closed its book on Wednesday despite reportedly strong demand. However, Nikkei reported that “market volatility, regulatory uncertainty and fear of angering Chinese regulators have prompted the company to cancel the offering, one of the people said. The company had been expected to price the deal today, which means it would have likely started trading some time next week.

On Wednesday, LinkDoc updated its prospectus to cite new risks from Beijing, in what was perhaps a hint that the deal would soon be pulled. According to anonymously-sourced whispers, LinkDoc, a provider of cancer-focused health care services using big data and artificial intelligence, had planned to sell 10.8MM shares priced between $17.50 and $19.50 each.

Including the $4.4 billion raised by Didi, a total of 36 Chinese companies have sold shares in New York this year, raising a total of $12.6 billion, according to Dealogic. This marks the fastest start to a year for Chinese deal flow; Chinese firms raised just $2.8 billion in the same period last year.

Later in the morning, the FT reported that Keep, which had been expected to raise up to $500MM, has told its bankers at Morgan Stanley that it would cancel its plans to meet with potential investors this week, according to anonymous sources familiar with the deal. Additionally, the FT confirmed earlier reports that Ximalaya, a podcasting platform (which has courted some controversy of its own), had recently canceled its IPO, apparently before the Didi rug-pull which suggests it may have decided to cancel or delay those plans for other reasons.

Beijing warned earlier this week that it would no longer tolerate overseas listings as it pushes domestic firms to list in Hong Kong or domestically. The crackdown on Didi and two other post-IPO Chinese firms was said to be tied to their handling of Chinese consumer data, which is now subject to strict laws requiring companies to keep the physical data in the country.

Keep is the latest disaster for SoftBank, which is suffering heavy losses as many of its portfolio companies (including Alibaba) have tumbled in the aftermath of Didi’s troubles. Keep was valued at $2 billion in its latest SoftBank-led funding round. SoftBsnk is also a major shareholder in Didi. The firm is also an investor in ByteDance, which has also reportedly scrapped plans to list in the US.

The crackdown is being led by the Cyberspace Administration of China, a regulator created by President Xi Jinping during his first term in office. Media outlets have been scrambling to offer readers and explanation of what the regulator does and how it works, seeing as it’s now apparently playing a major role as a gatekeeper of Chinese firms (Nikkei published a lengthy explainer here).

WSJ’s report on the agency offered some new details about the “miscommunication” that preceded Didi’s listing. While the CAC and some others reportedly suggested to Didi that it might want to reconsider, other regulators – including the country’s main economic and financial regulators – reportedly encouraged Didi to press ahead.

Bottom line: the CAC has been tasked with cementing the CCP’s control over the private corporate sector including – and especially – technology firms. Chinese law says data collected from social media, e-commerce, lending and other private business activities is a “national asset” and must be safeguarded.

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

UK/CORONAVIRUS/LOCKDOWN

END
 
EUROPE/ECB
Only a goal: ECB like the Fed will target an average inflation target. Stupidly they will tackle climate change
(zerohedge)
 

ECB Launches Average Inflation Targeting, Will Tackle Climate Change

 
THURSDAY, JUL 08, 2021 – 08:23 AM

As previewed earlier, after a lengthy 18 month consultation period in which it did its best to imitate the Fed, on Thursday the ECB finally unveiled its “new monetary policy strategy” which – like the Fed – consists of a symmetric 2% inflation aim, effectively raising its inflation goal and saying that – like the Fed and its average inflation targeting regime – it’s willing to tolerate a limited overshoot of the target, the outcome of a strategy revamp aimed at bolstering the economy after years of subpar prices and growth, yet as noted previously the ECB’s new inflation goal, which many had expected, is just that – a goal; how it actually gets there is the real question.

As Bloomberg notes, the strategy review is the first by the Frankfurt-based institution since 2003, and the most comprehensive and ambitious attempt to rethink its role in serving the euro zone’s 342 million citizens since the creation of the single currency.

Specifically, the ECB agreed to seek consumer-price growth of 2% over the medium-term with a “symmetric” aim that could “imply a transitory period in which inflation is moderately above target” which represents a significant change from the “below, but close to, 2% over the medium term” wording which some felt was too vague and led to calls for tighter policy too soon. ECB officials also said they will start considering owner-occupied housing costs in their supplementary measures of inflation, a move that seeks to provide a support to inflation readings.

“While taking the ECB’s primary mandate of price stability as a given, the review has allowed us to challenge our thinking, engage with numerous stakeholders, reflect, discuss and reach common ground on how to adapt our strategy,” ECB head Christine Lagarde said in a statement. “The new strategy is a strong foundation that will guide us in the conduct of monetary policy in the years to come.”

Here is a snapshot of the ECB’s New Strategy

  • Inflation goal changed to “symmetric” target of 2% over the medium term from “below, but close to, 2%”
  • ECB may allow transitory period in which inflation is moderately above target
  • Governing Council recommends inclusion of owner-occupied housing into inflation measure over time
  • Climate-change considerations will be included in monetary policy operations in areas of disclosure, risk assessment, collateral framework and corporate-sector asset purchases
  • New strategy will be applied starting with July 22 monetary policy meeting
  • Governing Council intends to assess its strategy periodically, with the next assessment expected in 2025

The euro and government bonds extended gains after the announcement. The EUR climbed to a day high of $1.1846, while German 10-year yields held near a three-month low of -0.34%.

The ECB also unveiled an “action plan to include climate change considerations in its monetary policy strategy”, according to which the ECB will take greater account of climate change in its key monetary policy decisions. Detailing the results of a long-awaited strategic review, it said climate change would be a factor in ECB policy related to the disclosure of financial information, risk assessment, collateral and its corporate sector asset purchases.

“Looking ahead, the ECB will adjust the framework guiding the allocation of corporate bond purchases to incorporate climate change criteria, in line with its mandate,” said the interest rate-setting authority for the 19-member euro area.

“These will include the alignment of issuers with, at a minimum, EU legislation implementing the Paris agreement through climate change-related metrics or commitments of the issuers to such goals,” it added in a statement.

The move (seen as laughable by all market cynics as all the ECB is doing is vowing it will provide European governments with more debt monetization) makes the ECB one of the more “forward-leaning” in Reuters’ words monetary authorities on climate change. The Federal Reserve has acknowledged that it does have economic consequences but says it does not factor it into monetary policy decisions.

ECB President Christine Lagarde, who has spoken passionately about the need for climate action and has shared platforms with campaigners such as David Attenborough, has made it a priority of her first two years at the helm to establish the bank’s role in the field. While the ECB said governments and parliaments had “primary responsibility” to act on climate change, it recognised the need to do more within its own mandate due to the potentially huge financial implications both of disruption from extreme weather events and global efforts to cut carbon emissions.

Other ECB decisions announced on Thursday included:

  • development of new models and analyses to monitor the implications of climate change and related policies
  • development of new indicators, covering green financial instruments and the carbon footprint of financial institutions, as well as their exposures to climate-related risks
  • a detailed plan from next year to require climate change-related disclosures for eligibility as collateral and asset purchases.
  • climate stress tests in 2022 of the balance sheet of the Eurosystem, which comprises the ECB itself and the national central banks of the 19-member euro area.

Of course, the ECB’s climate fighting hypocrisy is not only laughable it’s redundant in a world where the biggest source of pollution is neither Europe nor the US but the developing world, and China in particular. But as we all know, China is untouchable because nobody dares to alienate 1 billion potential Chinese buyers by telling the truth. Instead, social justice warriors such as LeBron remain focused squarely on their own native lands, while the true source of most of the world’s ills remains untouched.

 

END

ECB’s new inflation goal is just that a goal and nothing more

(Bloomberg)

The ECB’s New Inflation Goal Is Just That – A Goal, Nothing More

 
THURSDAY, JUL 08, 2021 – 07:08 AM

By Bloomberg reporter and macro commentator Ven Ram.

The European Central Bank’s revamp of its strategy may allow for inflation pricing to creep up to new heights — though in and of itself it is unlikely to be the cure for a malaise that plagued the euro area for long.

The ECB just announced that it is changing its somewhat nebulous and imprecise goal for an inflation target of “below but close to 2%” to one that pegs it at 2% and also allowing for an overshoot when needed.

  • *ECB ADOPTS SYMMETRIC 2% INFLATION GOAL OVER MEDIUM TERM
  • *ECB ADDS CLIMATE CHANGE CONSIDERATIONS TO MONETARY POLICY

Actual forward inflation pricing in the euro area has, if anything, mellowed this week, though much of that may be legitimately ascribed to the mood in the global financial markets. Even so, 5y5y inflation swaps have been nowhere near 2% for about seven years now — underscoring the stiff challenge for policy makers in kindling inflation.

The irony in all this is that in that seven-year period, the ECB has had its benchmark deposit rates below zero, which has of course gone deeper into negative territory if anything over the years. The proposition that negative interest rates will stave off deflation and help spur inflation has proved to be a chimerical dream. The average inflation rate in the five years preceding the introduction of negative rates was 1.7%, compared with just 0.9% in the five years since.

Clearly, wishing for 2% inflation and allowing it to go higher is heady stuff in terms of policy making but getting there requires more than just semantics. History has proven that the answer doesn’t lie in deeper and deeper levels of negative rates or tons of money thrown at the markets to keep rates low — because that may only end up stoking investors’ preference for the safest assets. There are more pronounced hurdles in demographics and productivity that need to be addressed.

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

RUSSIA

Russia expels Estonian consul  Estonia calls the spy charges a set up

(zerohedge)

Russia Expels Detained Consul As Estonia Calls Spy Charges A “Setup”

 
THURSDAY, JUL 08, 2021 – 02:45 AM

Estonia’s St. Petersburg consul has now been given 48 hours to leave Russia following his Tuesday detention by Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) over allegations he was “caught red-handed” receiving classified files from a Russian national.

“On 7 July, Charge d’Affaires of the Estonian Embassy in Russia Ulla Uibo was summoned to the Russian Foreign Ministry. The Russian side expressed a strong protest in connection with the intelligence gathering activities by Estonian Consul to St. Petersburg Mart Lätte, which are incompatible with the diplomatic status of the Consul,” an official statement from the ministry read, with Russian media reporting that the top diplomat earlier identified as Mart Lätte has been ordered to leave the country.

Consul Mart Lätte

The FSB apprehended him Tuesday on charges of “receiving classified information from a Russian citizen.”

The agency’s full statement had been forceful and insistent on his guilt:

“The Russian Federal Security Service in St. Petersburg have detained Estonian diplomat — consul of the Consulate General of the Republic of Estonia in St. Petersburg Mart Lätte —caught red-handed while receiving classified materials from a Russian citizen,” the FSB’s Center for Public Relations (CPR) was cited in Russian news agency Interfax as saying.

The incident appears a tit-for-tat style “answer” to recent allegations which have seen Russian diplomats and military attaches get kicked out of Europe for mirror image charges, and particularly from NATO member Estonia.

Estonia is rejecting the allegations, instead slamming the ordeal as a “set-up” and “provocation” by Russian intelligence:

Estonia’s Foreign Ministry said the detention was another example of Russia choosing confrontation with the European Union.

The Kremlin has expelled Estonian diplomats two times this year, both in retaliation for Estonia’s expulsion of Russian diplomats.

Additionally it comes after the FSB in April arrested Ukrainian consul Alexander Sosonyuk in St. Petersburg on very similar allegations of spying. Sosonyuk had been held and interviewed for hours at an FSB office before release. Upon his presence being declared by Russian authorities as “unwanted” he left the country.

end

IRAN/

Nuclear talks are now on the brink as they continue with their uranium enrichment

(Irina Slav/OilPrice.com)

Nuclear Talks Teeter On The Brink As Iran Restarts Uranium Enrichment

 
THURSDAY, JUL 08, 2021 – 05:00 AM

Authored by Irina Slav via OilPrice.com,

Iran has begun the production of enriched uranium metal, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has said in a statement, prompting the three Western negotiators in the Iran nuclear deal to issue a joint statement condemning the move.

“This is a serious violation of Iran’s commitments under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPoA),” the foreign ministers of France, Germany and the UK said in their statement.

“Iran has no credible civilian need for uranium metal R&D and production, which are a key step in the development of a nuclear weapon.”

“This further step in Iran’s escalation of its nuclear violations is all the more concerning at a time when no date has been set for the continuation of the negotiations in Vienna on a return to the JCPoA,” the three also said.

U.S. State Department spokesman Ned Price said, as quoted by Reuters, “Iran’s nuclear advances will have a bearing on our view of returning to the JCPOA.”

Reuters reported that both European and U.S. government officials expect the news to complicate the already complicated negotiations on the JCPOA, which President Trump pulled the U.S. out of when he came into office but his successor signaled he was ready to return to the deal under certain conditions.

While a month ago the deal seemed all but done, now the end of the negotiations looks a lot more distant. The change of the guard in Tehran after the June elections was one reason. Now, Iran’s move to continue with its uranium enrichment program will present another challenge for the negotiators.

Tehran’s refusal to make any concessions is also an obstacle, according to U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken. Last month, Blinken and his French counterpart warned that the reinstatement of the nuclear deal is at risk unless Iran changed its attitude.

end.

AFGHANISTAN//USA

Withdrawal is essentially complete with 600 troops guarding the embassy and the airport

DeCamp/Antiwar.com

US Afghanistan Withdrawal Deemed ‘Complete’; Biden To Address The Nation

 
THURSDAY, JUL 08, 2021 – 10:30 AM

Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

Politico published an article on Wednesday that cited two unnamed US officials who said the Afghanistan withdrawal is essentially complete, although there are plans to keep troops in the country. “The withdrawal is over, for all intents and purposes,” one official said. “It’s done.”

The official said currently, about 600 US troops remain in Afghanistan. Most of the troops are Marine Corps or Army personnel who will stay at the US embassy in Kabul. The rest of the 600 will be based at Hamid Karzai International Airport, which is also located in Kabul.

 

Getty Images

The report said these 600 troops will stay after the US officially completes the withdrawal. The only military personnel left in Afghanistan that will be pulled out before President Biden’s September 11th deadline are Gen. Scott Miller, the top US commander in Afghanistan, and his staff.

As part of Washington’s post-withdrawal plans, Miller’s authority to carry out operations in Afghanistan will be transferred to Gen. Frank McKenzie, the head of US Central Command. The Pentagon has established a new military command structure that will run out of the Kabul embassy, and its duties will go beyond diplomatic security.

Turkey has agreed to help the US control the Kabul airport, and the two countries are in the process of working out an agreement on the mission. Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar spoke with Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin on the matter Wednesday. The Turkish defense ministry said the two leaders had a “constructive and positive meeting” on the airport plan, but it doesn’t appear a final deal has been agreed upon at this point.

Details of what the US footprint in Afghanistan beyond September 11th will look like have not been officially shared by the Biden administration. President Biden is expected to speak on Afghanistan on Thursday. White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki said the president will discuss “our continued drawdown efforts and ongoing security and humanitarian assistance” to the Afghan people and military on Thursday afternoon.

US Central Command said Tuesday that the withdrawal was over 90 percent complete. “While the withdrawal is over 90 percent complete, it is not done,” Pentagon spokesman John Kirby told Politico. “Temporary Enabling Forces remain in theater that are focused on providing security for a safe and orderly withdrawal. As long as these forces and certain contract support are still there, the withdrawal is ongoing.”

END

6.Global Issues

CORONAVIRUS UPDATE/VACCINE//

The Delta strain is causing hospitals to fill up.  The strain is more transmissible but less deadly. However this is not the problem.  The Delta strain is going to morph into other more transmissible strains and the chance that they would become more deadly.  We already are witnessing the growing strength of the Lambda strain. Although we must worry about this, it is the deadly spike protein in both the vaccines and the virus that are troublesome and will become very problematic in the next several months

(zerohedge)

 

Delta Could Disrupt Emerging World’s Post-COVID Recovery, Goldman Warns

 
 
WEDNESDAY, JUL 07, 2021 – 11:05 PM

Now that the Delta variant has revived fears about renewed COVID outbreaks from the US to Europe to Asia, a team of analysts at Goldman Sachs has published its analysis of the risks posed by the mutated strain. The conclusion: since full vaccination remains effective at preventing infections, countries with low vaccination rates are the most vulnerable to another outbreak of the Delta variant.

As Goldman pointed out in an earlier note, the Delta variant represents a growing share of new COVID cases.

Accordingly, the Goldman team sees the risk of high hospitalizations and fatalities, followed by economy-damaging lockdowns, as rising most rapidly in Russia, South Africa, and Indonesia.

However, a more important takeaway involves the difficulty of achieving “COVID zero”, something no country – not even China – has managed to achieve. If nothing else, the rise of the Delta variant likely increases the risk that COVID will become endemic like the flu.

Of course, most countries have already come to terms with the fact that “COVID zero” probably isn’t a realistic public health goal.

But in Australia, Israel and China, it could complicate authorities efforts to move past the crisis (though Goldman expects a gradual H2 recovery in consumption as infections “stabilize” in Australia and continue to decline in China).

The most likely scenario implies a slightly slower global reopening, with the risk highest in countries with low vaccination rates. Still, “our global GDP growth forecasts of 6.6% in 2021 and 4.8% in 2022 therefore remain optimistic in absolute terms, although they are now closer to the consensus than at any point since April 2020.”

The rest of Goldman’s note consisted of a Q&A where analysts answered clients’ questions:

Q. The Delta variant (first identified in India) is estimated to be 50-60% more transmissible than the Alpha variant (first identified in the UK). How effective are the Western vaccines against the Delta variant?

A. While the Delta variant weighs on the efficacy of vaccines (and especially single doses) at preventing infections (especially asymptomatic infections), Pfizer and AstraZeneca full vaccinations remain highly effective at protecting hospitalizations, and Moderna and J&J lab results look encouraging

study from Public Health England estimates elevated Delta-specific efficacies at preventing hospitalizations of 94%/96% after one/two Pfizer doses and 71%/92% after one/two AstraZeneca doses. Public Health England estimates lower efficacies at preventing symptomatic disease after two doses for Pfizer of 88% and 60% for AstraZeneca. Similarly, a new study from Canada also estimates an 87% efficacy of full Pfizer vaccinations to prevent symptomatic disease. The symptomatic efficacy, however, is lower after one dose and estimated at one-third for both Pfizer and AstraZeneca in the English study, and 56%/72% for Pfizer/Moderna in the Canadian study

Yesterday, Israel’s Health Ministry reported a 64% effectiveness of the Pfizer vaccine in preventing any infections and a 93% effectiveness in preventing hospitalizations. The 64% estimate likely corresponds to the effectiveness to prevent both asymptomatic and symptomatic infections while the studies from England and Canada and clinical trials assess symptomatic infections. Taken at face value, these headline numbers suggest a reduced ability of the Pfizer vaccine to stop the transmission of Delta infections relative to previously dominant strains, although the “additional” infections are more likely to be asymptomatic.

Finally, in vitro studies from Moderna and Johnson & Johnson demonstrate their ability to neutralize the Delta variant with neutralizing titers that were lower compared to the ancestral strain but higher than for the Beta variant (first identified in South Africa), where high efficacy against severe disease was clinically demonstrated.

Q. How effective are the Eastern vaccines against the Delta variant?

A. Although data remain very limited, Chinese and Russian expert commentary and clinical trial results from India’s Bharat Biotech suggest that the Sinopharm, Sputnik V, and Bharat Biotech vaccines provide solid protection against severe disease.

Q. What about Delta’s impact on reinfection risk?

A. Although the data are particularly limited, research and experts suggest that prior infections continue to provide some protection against Delta, especially against severe disease.

Q. The UK is experiencing a surge in infections although hospitalizations and especially fatalities remain relatively low (Exhibit 2). What drives this “decoupling” and will it continue?

A. This mostly reflects the concentration of new infections among younger individuals but also a stronger vaccine protection against hospitalizations than against infections (especially for AstraZeneca). We therefore expect this decoupling to continue.

Q. Are infections and hospitalizations/fatalities also “decoupling” outside of the UK?

A. Most other economies with high vaccination rates and Delta outbreaks are also experiencing this decoupling, although it is particularly pronounced in the UK. We expect hospitalizations to remain relatively low in high vaccination countries.

Q. Does the virus still matter for activity in North America and Europe if hospitalizations stay low?

A. Yes. The virus GDP drag should, however, be much diminished and reflects travel restrictions, consumer risk aversion, and lingering softness in labor supply

Q. Twenty-two US states have vaccinated less than half of their populations (Exhibit 11) and infections are rising rapidly in several low vaccination states. Do we not expect sharp Delta-induced rises in hospitalizations and substantial economic damage in these states too?

A. While hospitalizations have already picked up in Arkansas, Missouri, and Nevada and are likely to increase further, we expect relatively limited economic damage for three reasons. First, higher elderly vaccination rates should limit the increase in hospitalizations (Exhibit 11). Second, the generally higher immunity rates from prior infections in these states should also limit the increase in hospitalizations (Exhibit 12, left panel and appendix). Third, the virus sensitivity of economic activity tends to be lower in low vaccination states (Exhibit 12, right panel).

Q. The Delta variant has raised the theoretical bar to achieve herd immunity to probably at least 85% of the population. Does vaccine hesitancy imply that countries will never approach such high immunity levels?

A. Not necessarily, and many medical experts believe the coronavirus will eventually turn from a pandemic to an endemic stage. The Delta variant likely implies higher ultimate vaccination rates (and immunity rates). In fact, further outbreaks appear to be sharply boosting demand in several countries, including the US, China, Australia, Israel, and especially Portugal (Exhibit 13).

* * *

Source: Goldman Sachs

 
 
end
Prominent British author Peter Hitchens warns that our grandkids will be wearing masks in 2050.  I sure hope not
(Watson/SummitNews)

Hitchens Warns ‘Your Grandkids Will Still Be Wearing Masks In 2050’

 
THURSDAY, JUL 08, 2021 – 03:30 AM

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

Prominent British author Peter Hitchens warns that if people continue to blithely accept lockdown restrictions, their grandchildren will still be wearing masks in 2050 and no one will remember why.

“If people don’t object to this now, their grandchildren will be wearing masks in the 2050s, although nobody will remember why,” tweeted Hitchens.

He was responding to a new report which reveals that despite the UK government vowing to lift all lockdown and mask restrictions for “freedom day” on July 19th, airlines, shops and other businesses will keep them in place.

Both Ryanair and EasyJet responded to the government’s announcement by vowing to force people to continue to muzzle up indefinitely.

“In order to protect the health of our customers and crew, the use of face masks will still be mandatory across all Ryanair flights, regardless of the departing/destination country,” said the airline in a statement.

EasyJet struck a similar tone, announcing,

“At present, there are no changes to easyJet’s onboard mask policy and we will continue to keep this under review.”

“They will join businesses in other sectors which have decided to refuse custom from people who don’t follow Government “advice” after July 19th,” writes Michael Curzon.

So in other words, whatever the government says, because it will not explicitly forbid companies from enforcing mask mandates, so-called “freedom day” is nothing of the kind and restrictions will de facto remain in place indefinitely.

This will be music to the ears of SAGE government advisers like Susan Michie, an avowed Communist who insists that people should be forced to wear masks “forever.”

Back in February 2020, Dr. Anthony Fauci admitted that a typical store-bought face mask “is not really effective in keeping out virus, which is small enough to pass through material.”

A peer-reviewed study in Denmark involving 6,000 participants found that “there was no statistically significant difference between those who wore masks and those who did not when it came to being infected by Covid-19,” the Spectator reported.

“1.8 per cent of those wearing masks caught Covid, compared to 2.1 per cent of the control group. As a result, it seems that any effect masks have on preventing the spread of the disease in the community is small.”

*  *  *

END

Bill Blain..

explains why Bonds prices are skyrocketing and yields plummeting along side a strong stock market

(Bill Blain)

In Bonds There Is Truth – The Importance Of 1.34%

 
THURSDAY, JUL 08, 2021 – 08:44 AM

Authored by Bill Blain via MorningPorridge.com,

“How many impossible things can you believe before breakfast?”

US 10-year bonds and US equity are in full rally mode. They show contradictory expectations for a stalled recovery and future strong growth! How can that be? Because the market is about what participants collectively think – and how markets think has been utterly changed by 12 years of monetary experimentation, repression, and distortion. We’ve got to change the way we think about markets.

…and sometime during a discussion on markets my chum, CIO of a very large family office, spotted something interesting:

  • The yield on the 10-year US Treasury Bond was exactly equal to the Dividend Yield on the S&P 500. Both were 1.34%.

That is a critical number. It may even be as significant as the answer “42”.

What do declining US bond yields and falling stock dividend yields tell us?

That the reflation trade is fading fast? Falling bond yields = rising bond prices, and are a sign the market anticipates a slowdown and declining inflationary threat.

Yet, we still expect to see further equity upside? Falling dividend yields = rising equity prices, and are a sign the market anticipates strong growth and rising corporate profits.

In bonds there is truth. Bonds are about credit risk – getting repaid principal and interest. But not the US treasury market – which is why it is called the risk-free rate. The risk of holding a Treasury bond actually boils down to inflation risk. Whatever mad-eyed Libertarian preppers hiding in mountain lairs say, the US Government defaulting on debt is a 50 Sigma possibility – it aint going to happen.

But inflation will eat away the value of the bond today in terms of its purchasing power relative to its future purchasing power at maturity. The greater inflation, the less the bond is worth, and its price today should reflect that. Inflation could occur through rising prices, and declining confidence in currency which creates inflation as its FX value tumbles.

If you assume zero inflation – as the market clearly does when the 10-year risk free rate is 1.34% – then there is no downside risk holding Treasuries. You will happily collect $1.34 for each $100 invested semi-annually and the price of a beer or a McDonalds in 10-years time will be exactly the same as it is today. (Which it won’t.)

Bonds have rallied strongly in recent weeks – clearly telling us the expectations of a strong global recovery have stalled. There is little upside to holding bonds. Just certainty. If the global economy does staggering well… you won’t get $2 back on your $100 investment. The only way you get more at maturity is if we see deflation – when the price of a beer is less in 10 years time than it is today.

Yet, we all know the world is a very uncertain place – its been illustrated by supply chain shifts and breaks, and rising trade hassle and protectionism. Inflation is not only likely – but nailed on. And that means any pension fund buying bonds today to pay your pension tomorrow – is going to fail… unless they find other ways to generate returns.

It’s the same problem if they buy equity. Long term, bonds outperform, but today we believe stocks are the only place to generate Alpha. If you want upside, then buy stocks. If the global economy rallies and grows, then profits rise and companies become more valuable… yada, yada… The downside? If the global economy stalls, companies make less money, the price falls or they collapse completely and you get nothing back.

How can the two markets be telling us such a contradictory story?

Distortion is a terrible thing. It affects minds and they way we think about markets.

And this is what I suddenly realised yesterday talking to my chums yesterday. We all noted the same thing – those of us of a certain age are watching younger, more nimble financial minds take over our business. That’s normal. They have different perspectives and different reads on what’s happening… and No One Working In Global Finance Today Under the Age of 32 has ever known markets that were undistorted by QE!

Think about it a second – central bank policies holding interest rates artificially low and them standing ever-ready to support global markets from the consequences of induced bubble conditions – have been the dominant theme of market for 12 years now. A whole generation of very clever bankers and investment managers are maturing into senior positions across the global financial industry having known nothing else.

It amazes me in our own internal discussions how the divide between we few surviving old fogey’s who remember free market currency crashes, bond market collapses and equity tumbles, and the younger financiers who can just accept the distortions caused by central banks to avoid these events, as a factor to include in their market expectations..

That’s probably why anyone over 40 is such a bear and convinced the market is unsustainable, while the younger generation is far more accepting of distortion as a permanent market reality..

Remember… when it comes to generating investment returns, it’s not what you think, but what the market thinks that matters. It is just a voting machine…

(And, by the way, the only way funds are going to make proper returns in these markets is probably to shift out of distorted financial assets (bonds and equity) and start buying real world assets linked to reality… that’s a story for tomorrow!)

 end

Michael Every on the major global issues facing the world today: 

 

Michael Every… 

Europe’s Own “Belt And Road” Initiative: Roady McRoadface

 
THURSDAY, JUL 08, 2021 – 11:15 AM

By Michael Every of Rabobank

A road by any other name

The Fed minutes provided something of a surprise. The same FOMC so recently telling us it would not raise rates until end-2024 because the economy is unfair -then shifting to end-2023 after a supply-chain snarl it didn’t predict- reports “various participants mentioned that they expected the conditions for beginning to reduce the pace of asset purchases to be met somewhat earlier than they had anticipated at previous meetings in light of incoming data.”

So when is that – 2022? Isn’t that…(checks calendar) six months from now?! Of course, there were some doves talking about unemployment data too. However, it is a further warning for markets that US mega-QE may be a star-crossed love not long destined for this world – and parting from it is likely to be far more sorrow than sweet for most asset classes.

US Treasury yields continue to plunge, again making a mockery of those who had been saying this time the break-out was real. 2s closed at 0.21%, down 6bp from their recent peak; 10s spent part of the day below 1.30% and closed at 1.32%, down 13bp from the Wednesday intraday high; and 30s are at 1.94% when they were 2.45% in March. What an economic dawn is projected in that yield move! Yet just as the Fed (and RBNZ) is leaning towards tightening, the ECB and PBOC are leaning the other way. Which is going to get ‘interesting’: imagine a market with the Fed (and RBNZ!) leaning one way and the ECB/PBOC/BOJ/RBA the other.

Bloomberg quotes ECB officials that the Bank’s review will see a shift to a new inflation goal of 2% that “allows overshoots when needed” vs. the current “below 2% and no overshoot”. The Fed already has Flexible Average Inflation Targeting (FAIT) but we don’t have a new ECB inflation policy name yet. Will it be Flexible Inflation Targeting (FIT)? Or Flexible Average Targeting (FAT)? Or Flexible Level of Average Targeting (FLAT)? Or Flexible Level of Average Prices (FLOP)? But what’s in a name? ECB rates are on hold for even longer, if that is possible, and ECB-QE -once thought impossible- will flow for longer. And asset prices will rise higher, making young/poor people angrier, and no deflationary structural problems will be addressed by any of this, says the bond market.

China’s State Council also let it be known it will “use monetary policy tools, including RRR cuts, in a timely way to further step up financial support for the real economy, especially small firms” – so policy easing. Note it wasn’t the PBOC saying this, underlining how monetary policy in China differs from the West (for now). This will be taken as bullish by the same people recently telling us China was experiencing a great V-shape recovery, but RRR cuts won’t help if the problem is a lack of confidence and too much debt: directly lowering the cost of borrowing for SMEs will, but banks are risk-averse, and SME funding is a problem everywhere. RRR cuts will help push CNY lower though: which is deflationary for the world – or it would be without a Bullwhip supply chain effect.

Meanwhile, the State Council is also reportedly proposing monetary policy instruments to support carbon emissions reduction targets in the form of relending quotas with preferential rates issued to qualified financial institutions to encourage funding for green loans. In other words, subsidized green borrowing; which is great for the environment…and for Chinese firms about to be hit by Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanisms (green tariffs) from the US and EU. Unless CBAMs exclude imports using state-aid -which the US and EU are themselves likely to adopt to go green- what will the criteria for excluding such Chinese goods be? The Great Game rolls on – under a new name. And so does a potential physical bifurcation to match that in rates.

On which note, China’s Global Times didn’t get the recent memo about presenting a more lovable face. In response to Japan’s Deputy PM affirming his country would fight alongside the US in support of Taiwan should China invade, which Beijing naturally took as a provocation, the GT responded: Japan will dig its own grave if it crosses red line of Taiwan question…Japan will become the target of China’s military strike. This will endanger Japan’s survival.” More free trade, anyone?

At the same time, Politico reports: “EU countries are finally getting serious about their response to China’s Belt and Road Initiative…[EU] governments want the Commission to spend the next nine months coming up with a list of “high impact and visible projects” to rival Beijing’s scheme…Among the challenges for the Europeans will be coming up with a name for their plan which is as catchy as Belt and Road. It will also need a logo…[to] deploy the EU’s soft power.

*Among* the challenges?! Is this EU geopolitical “open strategic autonomy” or a marketing exercise? Are a “catchy name” and logo really the challenge in a realpolitik struggle for resources and value-chain position, and the subsequent economic power to back the EU’s political-economy values system in the 21st century?

What is to be built, and to benefit whom, for example? By the very dint of the EU responding to the BRI, this process can be zero sum.

How about funding? Nobody in the EU wants to pay for a ‘BRI’ despite ECB QE4EVA making it easily done. Politico says “There’s no price tag for the EU’s new scheme, but the Council will call for a mix of public financing and private investment,” with the EIB and EBRD in the mix. Yet note China has (very) broadly sunk as much as $2.5 trillion into BRI, much of it money-losing.

And who, apart from France, will be willing to defend the EU scheme on the ground in an increasingly sharp-elbowed global environment? (“Oh dear, your road got huge potholes in it overnight…shame. Mine is still usable though.”) Moreover, how does this all sit alongside the G7 pledge to build a “B3W” BRI rival, or the Franco-German-Sino-African scheme floated on Monday this week? Questions, questions.

Yet a road by any other name would be as sweet, so here are some suggestions for the EU:

  • Euroad;

  • The Melt and Fold;

  • The Frog and Toad; or

  • Roady McRoadface (courtesy of Rabo’s Erik-Jan Harn)

end
 

7. OIL ISSUES

UAE set to turn on the taps.

(zerohedge)

Oil Tumbles After Report Confirms UAE Plan To Unilaterally ‘Open The Taps’

 
WEDNESDAY, JUL 07, 2021 – 08:38 AM

We want a bigger market share, to monetize as much as we can from our reserves, especially when we have spent billions developing them.”

That is the not so subtle quote WSJ reports from a senior UAE oil executive, confirming the widening split between the Saudis (OPEC) and its long-time ally.

Simply put, UAE’s strategy is – sell as much crude as possible before demand dries up – and raises growing concerns that the cartel is at risk.

WSJ reports that while the country isn’t worried about a sudden drop in demand, people familiar with the new tack say the country wants to pump and sell as much as it can now, when demand and prices are strong. Proceeds will help it wean its economy off oil.

“This is the time to maximize the value of the country’s hydrocarbon resources, while they have value,” said a person briefed on the U.A.E.’s strategy.

“The aim of the investment is to generate revenue for the diversification of the economy, both for investment in new energy and, as importantly, in new revenue streams.”

The market reaction was to erase the bounce back in crude prices and return WTI to yesterday’s post-OPEC+ ‘no deal’ lows…

Of course, broken cartel or not, it’s clear that this could all be one big negotiating tactic…

In the meantime, the Biden admin is anxiously watching gas prices in the US.. but for now has not publicly denigrated OPEC+’s actions (or lack thereof).

end

The Real Reason OPEC Talks Broke Down

 
THURSDAY, JUL 08, 2021 – 11:55 AM

Authored by Cyril Widdershoven via OilPrice.com,

Major cracks appear to be forming in the OPEC+ alliance. After several years of unprecedented cooperation between OPEC members and non-OPEC producers, the growing regional economic and power conflict between Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi is threatening the arrangement.

While much of the analysis of the recent OPEC+ disagreement has focused on why the UAE refused to commit to the new export plan, there are other factors that have been largely overlooked. A closer look at the ongoing investments by the UAE in its upstream and downstream industry is one such example. Abu Dhabi’s national oil company ADNOC has put in place a production capacity increase that calls for a total reassessment of the underlying OPEC production baselines, which were agreed in 2018. At present Abu Dhabi is allowed to produce around 3.2 million bpd, based on the 2018 baseline, but has a capacity now of more than 3.8-4 million bpd. Looking at ongoing new projects and planned investments, production of more than 4 million bpd is possible in the coming years.

The aggressive investment strategy of ADNOC means that the UAE is plenty of incentives to increase production. An extended and controlled OPEC+ export quota system would not only impact the UAE’s revenue streams but could even turn some of its multi-billion dollar investments into stranded assets in the long term.

Recently, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed has been pushing an independent geopolitical and economic strategy for the UAE. After years of cooperating with Saudi Arabia on everything from OPEC policy to regional geopolitical crises, the two powers are now beginning to diverge. Former cooperation on issues such as the Yemen war and the Qatar blockade has weakened drastically.

At the same time, Mohammed bin Salman has been aggressively pushing Saudi Arabia’s regional power. Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030, the Kingdom’s economic diversification plan, has driven the crown prince to take aim on other GCC countries as he attempts to force international investors and companies to set up shop in Saudi Arabia rather than Dubai or Doha. This transformation in the relationship between Saudi Arabia and the UAE certainly played a part in the recent OPEC+ conflict.

Riyadh is also targeting the logistics industry, an industry that the UAE has long dominated, establishing itself as a regional hub for logistics and connecting EU-Asian commodity and trade flows. In the last couple of months, Saudi Arabia has become increasingly aggressive in this space. While there has no been a direct conflict in this area, it is generally assumed that there is not enough space in the region for two supra-regional maritime logistic hubs. MBZ and Dubai are clearly unimpressed with Saudi Arabia’s attempts to muscle in on the industry.

Another area of discord between the two nations is the UAE’s increased cooperation with Israel.  UAE-Israel cooperation in logistics, technology, defense, and agriculture, is a possible threat to Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 projects. By bringing Israeli tech and know-how to Abu Dhabi and Dubai, the UAE projects will compete with the Saudi Giga-Projects, such as NEOM, for international investment. In response to these moves by the UEA, Riyadh has blocked technology and products exports by the UAE that are linked to Israel.

This economic and geopolitical confrontation is normal in the Arab world and is unlikely to cause a major rift between the two nations. The current cracks will likely be mended when one of the two parties is calling for a Majlis in the Desert. MBS and MBZ have more to win from cooperation than confrontation. A breakthrough in the OPEC discussions is certainly a possibility, but first, some saber-rattling must be done. Ultimately, MBS understands that both Aramco’s and ADNOC’s future revenues are important. Both NOCs will be able to gain a lot of market share in the coming years if they play their cards right. By being flexible while not losing face, both the nations could go on to cooperate in other fields. Emirati SWFs are still a viable source of financing for major projects in Saudi Arabia, while energy-transition projects in the Emirates thrive on Saudi cooperation and cash.

By showing a strong position in international and regional media, both Crown Princes aim to boost their own positions. MBS’s strong approach towards regional economic issues is clear and will inevitably come into conflict with others. MBZ’s more aggressive regional and supra-regional power aspirations are also set out for all to see. OPEC’s infighting is a natural place for these tensions to play out. Both parties know that their long-term alliance will be key in the future. A full confrontation between the two nations would only serve as an advantage to the long list of regional adversaries for these two nations. By threatening non-compliance, Abu Dhabi is showing its willingness to confront market developments head-on. Saudi Arabia and Russia now need to understand that a Riyadh-Moscow agreement is not going to be enough to placate the other members. ADNOC is unlikely to destabilize the market by opening up its taps, but the symbolism of its resistance is important. Statements about the UAE’s willingness to leave OPEC are based purely on rumors, not on facts. Stability is key in oil and gas, being part of the discussion inside of OPEC is more valuable to the UAE than being independent. There is plenty of complexity to unpick behind the scenes, but this particular disagreement is unlikely to cause any real problems for OPEC+

The company behind the now defunct Keystone XL pipeline is suing the government for $15 billion 

(zerohedge)

The Company Behind The Now-Defunct Keystone XL Pipeline Is Suing The Government For $15 Billion

 
WEDNESDAY, JUL 07, 2021 – 06:25 PM

While White House press secretary Jen Psaki hilariously tells the media that Joe Biden’s administration is “constantly monitoring” and “watching” the price of oil (as if they can and will do anything about it), the company behind the abandoned Keystone XL pipeline is suing the U.S. government for more than $15 billion in damages. 

In a press release out last Friday, TC Energy announced it had “filed a Notice of Intent to initiate a legacy North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) claim under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement to recover economic damages resulting from the revocation of the Keystone XL Project’s Presidential Permit.”

“TC Energy will be seeking to recover more than US$15 billion in damages that it has suffered as a result of the U.S. Government’s breach of its NAFTA obligations,” the release reads. 

TC announced last month it would be scrapping the project after Joe Biden revoked a permit necessary on his first day in office. The permit had been approved by President Trump in the first months of his presidency, The Hill reports, and had “authorized the construction of a 1,200-mile pipeline that would have carried oil from Canada to the U.S.”

“…leaving the Keystone XL pipeline permit in place would not be consistent with my Administration’s economic and climate imperatives,” President Biden had said of the project.

As a result, TC was forced to lay off 1,000 workers. 

Keystone XL President Richard Prior said at the time: “I believe this will send a concerning signal to infrastructure developers that resonates far beyond our project and will stifle innovation for a practical transition towards sustainable energy.”

And as for Psaki, here’s some advice for the administration that is apparently unaware of how supply and demand works, yet is still seeking lower oil prices:

 

END

8 EMERGING MARKET& AUSTRALIA ISSUES 

AUSTRALIA/COVID//

Sydney extends the Delta inspired COVID lockdown for another 2 weeks

(zerohedge)

Sydney Extends Delta-Inspired COVID Lockdown For Another 2 Weeks

 
WEDNESDAY, JUL 07, 2021 – 09:05 PM

Public health authorities in Australia have continued to confirm small numbers of new COVID cases despite Sydney’s latest economy-crushing lockdown. And with the Delta “scariant” helping to keep COVID paranoia at a fever pitch, authorities have decided to extend what was supposed to be a two-week lockdown for another two weeks.

Authorities cited the “vulnerability” of Australia’s mostly unvaccinated population as the reason why such draconian measures must be extended, despite pleas from restauranteurs and other small business owners pleading with the government to consider other strategies.

Parents are also griping since the extension also means school-age children won’t return to school next week.

“The situation we’re in now is largely because we haven’t been able to get the vaccine that we need,” New South Wales state Health Minister Brad Hazzard said.

Only 9% of Australian adults are fully vaccinated.

State Premier Gladys Berejiklian said the decision to extend the lockdown through July 16 was made on the advice of the government’s advisors.

Of 27 new infections attributed to the delta variant reported in latest 24-hour period on Wednesday, only 13 had managed to isolate while infectious, officials said, raising the risk of further spread. The delta variant is considered more contagious than the original coronavirus or other variants.

Sydney isn’t the only part of Australia facing lockdown. Last week, almost 50% of Australia’s population was locked down as cities on the east, west and north coasts tightening pandemic restrictions due to clusters. However, most of those lockdowns have now been lifted. Sydney and its suburbs, representing a sizable piece of New South Wales, the country’s largest state, are the only part of Australia still facing lockdown restrictions.

By the standards of most developed nations, Australia has done remarkably well. Australia has been relatively successful in containing clusters throughout the pandemic, registering fewer than 31K cases, and only 910 deaths total. Of those, Australia has recorded only a single COVID-19 death since October: an 80-year-old man who died in April after being infected overseas and diagnosed in hotel quarantine.

Of the 27 new infections of the delta variant reported during the last 24 hours, only 13 had been in isolation while infectious, officials said, which raises the risk that the variant might be spreading more quickly than authorities realize.

Additionally, there are 37 COVID-19 cases in Sydney hospitals. Of those, seven are in intensive care, the youngest in their 30s.

END

HAITI

Haiti Police Arrest Six Suspects, Kill Seven In President’s Assassination

Tyler Durden's Photo

 

BY TYLER DURDEN
THURSDAY, JUL 08, 2021 – 04:40 PM

At least two suspects in the brazen slaying of Haitian President Jovenel Moise were found in the capital of Port-au-Prince by residents who turned them over to the Haitian National Police. 

Journalists saw scores of people gather around the men on Thursday, grabbing the suspects by their shirts and the back of their pants, pushing them and on occasion slapping them. People in the crowd said they had found the two hiding in bushes.

Police arrived shortly afterward to arrest the men, who were sweating heavily and were wearing clothes that seemed to be smeared with mud. Officers placed them in the back of a pickup truck and drove away as the crowd ran after them to the nearby police station. –AP News

Two of the assassins were hauled off to the Port au Prince police station. 

 

Source: AP

Allegedly another suspect was detained by residents. 

National Police Director Leon Charles told Radio Metropole that six alleged assassins were arrested Thursday and seven were killed in fierce shootouts across the capital. The men are allegedly responsible for shooting Moise dozens of times and critically injuring his wife. 

WaPo reports one of the six people arrested in connection with the assassination is a U.S. citizen of Haitian descent. The paper quoted a Haitian Cabinet minister who said James Solages, a U.S. citizen, has been arrested. 

Readers may recall Wednesday night, we posted a video of the mercenaries right before they attacked the president’s private residence. One of the attackers, likely Solages, announced on a loudspeaker: “This is a DEA operation. Everybody stand down. DEA operation. Everybody back up, stand down.” 

The impoverished Caribbean nation’s future remains uncertain as the prime minister has taken leadership and declared a two-week state of siege in the country. 

END

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings THURSDAY  morning 7:30 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1821 DOWN .0009 /EUROPE BOURSES /ALL RED  

USA/ YEN 110.72 up 01211 /NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.3833  UP   0.0029  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/

USA/CAN 1.2437  DOWN .0021

 

Early THURSDAY morning in Europe, the Euro IS DOWN BY 24 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1839 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 28.21 PTS OR 0.79%

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 807.49 PTS OR 2.89%

 

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP .20% // EUROPEAN BOURSES OPENED ALL RED 

 

Trading from Europe and ASIA

EUROPEAN BOURSES CLOSED ALL RED 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG  CLOSED DOWN 807.49 PTS OR 2.89% 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 28.21  PTS OR 0.79% 

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP .20%

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 248.32 PTS OR 0.88%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1814.30

silver:$26.10-

Early THURSDAY morning USA 10 year bond yr: 1.280% !!! DOWN 4 IN POINTS from WEDNESDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

The 30 yr bond yield 1.893 DOWN 5  IN BASIS POINTS from WEDNESDAY night.

USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 92.45 DOWN 20 CENT(S) from WEDNESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers THURSDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing  THURSDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.32% UP 3  in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.028%  DOWN 1/2   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.34%//  UP 1 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:  0.76 UP 1   points in basis points yield from yesterday./

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 42 points higher than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.300% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.05% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR  THURSDAY

Closing currency crosses for THURSDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1841  UP    0.0048 or 48 basis points

USA/Japan: 109.83  DOWN .809 OR YEN DOWN 81  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3762 down .0038 POUND down 38  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar down 58 basis points to 1.2540

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The USA/Yuan,  CNY: closed    ON SHORE  (CLOSED DOWN).. 6.4903 

 

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN DOWN)..6.4991

TURKISH LIRA:  8.69  EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.028%

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 0 IN basis points from WEDNESDAY at 1.313 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 1.928 DOWN 1 in basis points on the day

 

Your closing USA dollar index, 92.43  DOWN 22  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for THURSDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 120.36 PTS OR 1.68% 

 

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 272.07 PTS OR 1.73% 

 

Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 130.99  PTS OR   2.01% 

 

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 211.2  PTS OR  .239%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN  643.52 PTS OR 2.55% 

 

WTI Oil price; 72.53 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 73.78 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE RISES:    74.79  THE CROSS  LOWER BY 0.01 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE HIGHER BY 1 BASIS PTS)

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.30 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM : 73.09//

BRENT :  74.29

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 1.3000..DOWN 2 basis points…

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 1.921 DOWN 2 basis points..

EURO/USA 1.1845 UP 0.0053   ( 53 BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:107.77 DOWN .861 ( YEN UP 86 BASIS POINTS/..

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 92.36  DOWN 28  cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.3785  DOWN 15  POINTS

the Turkish lira close: 8.70  down 1 BASIS PTS

the Russian rouble 74.77   DOWN 0.05 Roubles against the uSA dollar. (DOWN 05 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.2534 DOWN 52 BASIS pts

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.306%

The Dow closed DOWN 259.86 POINTS OR 0.75%

NASDAQ closed DOWN  88.40 POINTS OR 0.60%

VOLATILITY INDEX:  19.06 CLOSED UP  2.85

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 0.123%//libor dropping like a stone

USA trading day in Graph Form

Bonds Bid, Breakevens Breakdown, As Dollar, Crypto, & Stocks Skid

 
THURSDAY, JUL 08, 2021 – 04:02 PM

Another day, another post-European Close dip-buying panic… but this time it failed to hold…

Overnight headlines from Japan (Olympics/Delta) and China (tech crackdown) started the ball rolling downhill. Small Caps managed to scramble briefly back into the green today but were immediately sold lower. Nasdaq managed to outperform on the day again but all indices were lower…

VIX topped 21 intraday…

The opening tumble in stocks was the 4th most widespread (in terms of breadth) in history…

Source: Bloomberg

Meme Stocks are having an ugly week but saw some dip buying in the middle of the day today…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasuries were bid once again with yields down for the 7th straight day (the longest streak since Nov 2018)

Source: Bloomberg

With 10Y testing down to 1.24% handle overnight…

Source: Bloomberg

Flattening the yield curve dramatically…

Source: Bloomberg

And crushing breakevens…

Source: Bloomberg

All of which is “inconceivable” for many…

The dollar had a down day after testing stops from the payrolls spike…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin had a bad day, but tested back up from its lows to $33k…

Source: Bloomberg

Ether was hit harder on the day…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold pumped and dumped and was unable to hold $1800…

After a couple of ugly days, oil prices rebounded today on a big crude inventory jump and record gasoline demand…

Bond and Oil vols are up notably but so are all asset classes…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, we note that as yields have dropped globally, negative-yielding-debt volumes have picked up once again, supporting gold… but not crypto…

Source: Bloomberg

END

a)Market trading/this morning/USA/this morning

 
ii) Market data
Disappointing initial jobless.  However what is scary is that there is still 14 million Americans still on the dole
(zerohedge)

There Are Still Over 14 Million Americans On Some Form Of Government Dole

 
THURSDAY, JUL 08, 2021 – 08:34 AM

Initial jobless claims hovered at post-COVID-lockdown lows but were disappointing at 373k – well above the 200k-ish norms of pre-COVID

Source: Bloomberg

Notably, California and Virginia ‘estimated’ their jobless claims last week and Pennsylvania continues to swing wildly from week to week…

But, while the picture is improving overall, we should still remember that there are over 14 million Americans still on some of government dole…

Source: Bloomberg

We do note that 460k Americans dropped off the pandemic emergency aid rolls…

Finally, we remind readers of the gaping chasm between those still claiming some form of pandemic-related unemployment benefit and the record number of job openings in America currently…

Source: Bloomberg

Tick-tock on those benefits.

end

Consumer Credit Soars Most On Record As Credit Card Borrowings Explode

 
 
THURSDAY, JUL 08, 2021 – 03:26 PM

The American consumer is making a triumphal return.

After several months of subdued increases in consumer credit, moments ago the Fed reported that in May, total consumer credit surged by the most on record, soaring by $35.28 billion, nearly double the consensus estimate of $18 billion and sharply higher from last months’ $20.04 billion. The monthly increase was a whopping 10% SAAR, pushing the total to a new record high of $4.279 trillion.

What was behind the surge? Well, one month after we noted a surprising dip in credit card usage in April, in May Americans went all out, and splurged, pushing revolving credit, i.e., credit card debt, higher by a whopping $9.2 billion, the biggest monthly increase since December 2019, and pushing total revolving debt to $974.6 billion.

In light of this indiscriminate desire to “charge it”, one can’t really blame Wells Fargo for doing away with lines of credit: just give Americans credit cards and charge them a juicy 20% APR on all future purchases.

But if the spike in credit card debt was notable, it was the explosion in non-revolving debt, i.e., auto and student loans, that was the true outlier in May when it surged by a record $26.1 billion, the biggest monthly increase on record!

This latest shift in spending patterns, means that things are now indeed back to normal, and that with consumers now spending not just using their debit cards (which is where the stimmy checks arrive) but their credit cards, Americans are once again highly confident about the future, and are spending far beyond their means, as they always tend to do. Either that, or the latest batch of stimmies has now been spent, and having no other source of funds American consumer are again resorting to their trusty old credit card to provide that much needed 70% consumption component of GDP…

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

the destruction of the middle class!

(Tom Luongo)

Luongo: Eviction Is Just Another Word For Extinction

 
WEDNESDAY, JUL 07, 2021 – 05:25 PM

Authored by Tom Luongo via Gold, Goats, ‘n Guns blog,

The Federal Moratorium on evictions is ending at the end of the month. Like last month, it could always be extended again.

It will be extended until the most opportune moment to do the most damage to the economy. Why? Vandals are in charge in D.C.

This was always a misguided program but was an integral part of destroying the relationship between lender and lendee, renter and landlord. The government comes in all humanitarian-like to suspend payments on FHA-backed mortgages, which are all of them post-Lehman Bros., after locking people in their homes for a year while blocking access to therapeutics which would have mitigated the worst of COVID-19’s effects on the society.

We know this now. Vaccination is patriotic. Stay home on the dole wearing a mask during sex for the greater good. If not, you’re a COVIDiot.

But, let’s leave all that aside for a minute. People have been terrorized and many of them are still not thinking straight, regardless of why and how they were driven to that state.

Moreover, I’ll stay away (for once) about any conspiracy surrounding this issue. Because the argument actually works better if we don’t go there. Let’s assume the intentions of people we know to be liars had the best of intentions and run the scenario in housing out.

So, while interrupting the normal ebb and flow of capital because of extreme circumstances may have felt like the right thing to do, the consequences of that policy are wholly predictable given the deplorable state of our politics. Again, even without any personal accusations of malice by individuals in decision-making positions, we still arrive at the outcome we have today.

Everyone on both sides of the residential debt divide is staring at a step-function reset of their cash flow when the eviction moratorium ends and that step-function will be a doozy, down.

Then when you think through what it is that Davos is trying to do with the Great Reset, which they have stated forthrightly, it is very clear why this moratorium has been extended until this summer, far beyond when it should have been.

And it has nothing to do with trying to keep Joe Biden’s poll numbers from collapsing by buying the votes of renters.

It has a lot to do with forcing both landlords and debtors into bankruptcy simultaneously, and do so when the bulk of the next round of government spending can be doled out to those closest to the Washington laundromat.

Martin Armstrong is right to bring up this issue but I don’t believe he’s thought through the full effect of the policy:

Those in power are just incompetent of ever managing the economy. Once they stuck their foot in the door, if they take it out and there is a wave of foreclosures, they will be to blame. So what do they do then? Put the foot back in the door and suspend all mortgages because they have an election in 2022?

Assuming incompetence over malice isn’t a bad rule of thumb when it comes to certain things.  But in the case of a bunch of dirty European commie oligarchs trying to take over the world, bankrupting the middle class is their raison d’etre.

The play here is simple, convince everyone to stay put and look like the hero to the little guy by suspending mortgage payments for more than a year. This helps get Biden inaugurated president.  Then keep the bogeyman of variants of COVID going well past any reasonable person’s patience until the economy has endured maximal pain, bankrupting hundreds of thousands of landlords and assisting the cocking up of the labor market subsidizing sloth through extending unemployment benefits and stimulus checks.

Why do you think they are rolling out your Child Tax Credit as a monthly support payment? Magnanimity?

Once you can’t hold back the “stay in your homes until XXX” narrative anymore you lift the moratorium. Since a lot of small businesses are gone most of the jobs available are McJobs. Even with a labor shortage forcing entry level wages higher that isn’t enough to cover the mortgage payment of a 3/2 in the ‘burbs.  

To give you an idea of how bad it is local restaurants are closed on both Sundays and Mondays here in my neck of the woods because they explicitly can’t get anyone to come to work. McDonald’s are begging people for cashier’s jobs at $12/hour.  In Florida.  Right-to-work.  $12 to jockey a register.  Madness.

There is little to no incentive to go back to work for even $12/hour when the government will pay you more than 2/3rds of that to stay at home. If it’s bad in Florida where unemployment benefits are less than enough to starve on, you can imagine what it looks like in more enlightened states like New York.

Now all those people have more than a year of back payments to make, which they can’t.  The landlords need the money now to keep from being foreclosed on by the bank.  And guess who gets to swoop in and buy up all those single-family homes and apartment buildings with newly-minted USG ‘infrastructure’ spending money?

You guessed it…. Blackrock.  That story made it out into the world in April with a piece by the War Street Journal.

If you think we’ve seen the peak of Blackrock’s takeover of the economy, just wait until people have to pay their mortgages again.

You really will own nothing and like it or else.  But wait, there’s more.

Blackrock will buy those houses at pennies on the dollar. They will wipe out hundreds of billions in mortgage debt but, more importantly, they will force a massive reassessment of housing prices across the country. And, as Dexter K. White pointed out on the latest episode of my podcast, Blackrock et.al. don’t even have to buy indiscriminately to have maximal effect.

They’ll just buy up the properties in red and purple districts to flip the electoral map. Under Obama it was called zip code targeting. And it’ll be accelerating once the eviction moratorium ends sometime soon.

Who do you think they’ll move in there? Well, go ask the people in places like Minneapolis.

Even worse, because the story got too much traction by late June none other than The Atlantic was running an apologia to tell us we’re crazy to think there’s anything weird going on here. The Atlantic. The only publication more Davos than it is The Economist.

But, after debunking the idea that Blackrock becoming the country’s biggest slum lord as ludicrous, the writer Derek Thompson, tells us what the real agenda is:

How can we encourage Americans to support more housing construction near where they live? Maybe the answer is … more single-family rentals. As the Bloomberg columnist Conor Sen points out, homeowners tend to look down on nearby construction, because more ample housing could drive down the cost of their property. But renters might celebrate nearby construction for the same general principle: Ample housing might hold down their rent.

In the arithmetic of online outrage—where big banks are evil, and landlords suck—nothing is more villainous than a big-bank landlord. But the larger villain in America’s housing crunch isn’t the faceless Wall Street Goliath overseeing your apartment building or house; it’s the forces stopping any new apartment buildings or houses from existing in the first place: your neighbors, local laws, and local governments. If we can’t see the culprit of America’s housing crisis, that’s because we’re eager to look everywhere except in the mirror.

Right Derek. More rentals. Why don’t you just polish Herr Schwab’s knob on Tik-Tok while you’re at it.

Here in North Florida, after twenty years of forcing density restrictions on agricultural zoned land development to “preserve green spaces” Alachua County is now trying to get rid of single-use zoning so they can build the equivalent of Section 8 trailer parks in those same low-density zones. So, first they destroy your ability to develop the land for your benefit then they want to use Federal money to bring in refugees and “Dreamers” and create rural slums.

Because The Walking Dead is their model of the future.

And what will that do to the price of your home? You who worked through COVID, who did things right, who paid their mortgage?  Oh right, you’ll now be upside down on that place you just bought in Florida or Tennessee to get away from the lunatics in California and New York. 

Hamster meet wheel.  

This is why you get out of debt in the face of a crisis.  Don’t always assume they want endless inflation.  Deflation of specific assets is always how they consolidate power.  First they’ll make you feel rich through the boom and then they’ll take it away with an inexplicable policy error from the Fed (sound familiar?) and there’s trillions in zero-cost money to help get out from underneath all that stress.

All you have to do is embrace extreme minimalism.

The New Single Family House in the Post Great Reset America

There is no recovery story now.  There is only liquidation of the middle class and the destruction of even the veneer of civility granted by the suburbs.

Last week’s jobs report may have kernels of truth in it which point to things improving, but it won’t matter, not with oil prices headed to $90 a barrel or higher.  The next phase of the destruction of the middle class in the U.S. is well underway.   All those new cars we bought with our stimmy checks? We won’t be able to afford those either. But, hey, there’s a silver lining.  Your per child tax credit will come to you as a monthly handout to help you walk to your McJob to make ends meet thanks to a benevolent government who just broke your legs.

*  *  *

Join my Patreon if you finally get what’s going on.

end

Tensions are running high on the border as this crisis deepens

(Cuthbertson/EpochTimes)

Tensions Run High On Border As Crisis Worsens

 
WEDNESDAY, JUL 07, 2021 – 08:05 PM

Authored by Charlotte Cuthbertson via The Epoch Times,

Alison Anderson and her husband, a Border Patrol agent, moved from a remote ranch near Big Bend, Texas, after one too many armed encounters with illegal aliens on their property.

Anderson grew increasingly concerned about her ability to protect her young daughters as groups of men would approach the house while her husband was at work. On multiple occasions, she was left to fend off illegal immigrants with her firearm, as the closest help was an hour away.

The family moved to Del Rio at the beginning of 2020, and at first she breathed a sigh of relief.

“We wanted a safe upbringing for our kids,” Anderson told The Epoch Times on June 25.

“I want them to be able to play outside and not have to worry about a group of 15 people or 24 or 40 cutting through. Or someone snatching my kids.

But since January, the masses of illegal aliens traversing through her neighborhood has had Anderson more worried than ever. Border agents caught a convicted rapist several weeks ago on the edge of her property.

“Having three little girls and having convicted sexual predators in and or around your property is terrifying,” she said. Her girls are aged 5, 3, and 1.

“It’s terrifying, because I feel like I can’t let my guard down for one second. And that is why we left the ranch – because I couldn’t let my guard down for one second. I had little people depending on me, and I don’t like that feeling. I don’t like all the feelings that come with it – the stress, the anxiety, the constant worry.”

Alison Anderson on her property in Del Rio, Texas, on June 25, 2021. (Charlotte Cuthbertson/The Epoch Times)

Once a relatively quiet region for illegal border crossings, the Del Rio Sector is now the second busiest, after the Rio Grande Valley in south Texas.

“We’ve seen a tremendous increase. So far this fiscal year, today, we’ve caught 144,000 people in the Del Rio sector,” Sector Chief Austin Skero said on June 24.

Agents in the sector have also had a 1,400 percent increase in arrests of illegal aliens with sex-related criminal convictions so far this fiscal year, compared to the same period last year, Skero said. A large number of the detainees had convictions for crimes involving a minor.

“There isn’t a day that goes by that I don’t read a paper or a report from my agents that talks about criminal aliens, sexual offenders that they’ve apprehended out there,” newly appointed Acting Border Patrol Chief Raul Ortiz said at an event in Del Rio on June 24.

As the crow flies, Anderson’s house is four miles from the international border, and the people she encounters are trying to avoid capture. The property lines up next to a road that has become a pickup spot for smugglers to load their vehicles and make a run to a large city, often San Antonio.

Anderson said she’s in the process of installing a camera system, and she and her husband plan to build a fence around the house—both things they wouldn’t normally consider.

Many of her neighbors are elderly and terrified, she said. “I have one neighbor that said she won’t even go out of her house if her husband isn’t home.

“It’s unacceptable to not uphold and enforce the immigration laws that Congress put in place to keep U.S. citizens safe.”

Dogs Make the Difference

Rancher John Sewell said his three Blue Lacy dogs have likely helped change the outcome in his favor during several encounters with illegal aliens, including when a group of five men approached him and said they wanted a ride in his truck.

“I said, ‘No, y’all just need to keep walking,’” Sewell said. “My car was in the opposite direction to where they should have been walking, but they started walking to my car. Well, of course, when the dogs smelled them, it was just a fiasco.”

The dogs rounded up the group, but when the illegal aliens started looking for something to pick up in defense, Sewell said he pulled his gun out and told them to get going.

“Finally, they got 50 feet or 70 feet away; I called the dogs back, and they went on,” he said.

Sewell’s ranch is in Uvalde County, about 55 miles from the international border. It’s also six miles from a Border Patrol highway checkpoint, which means illegal immigrants use his ranch to skirt the checkpoint by foot before being picked up again on the other side.

“In 25 years, I’ve never personally carried a gun. In the last five months, I carry one every single day. That ought to tell you all you need to know.”

He’s getting a camera installed at his main headquarters, and his wife doesn’t answer the door without a gun in her hand.

“Usually before, if someone came to the house, they were in dire straits—really dehydrated or lost or whatever. Now … they want you to give them a ride,” Sewell said.

John Sewell on his ranch in Uvalde County, Texas, on June 12, 2021. (Charlotte Cuthbertson/The Epoch Times)

Several months ago, as nine men ran straight toward him, Sewell grabbed his rifle and released his dogs, while yelling at them to stop. The dogs headed the men off, and they jumped a fence and ran off.

“If I hadn’t had the dogs, I don’t know what would have happened. I felt like I was going to have to shoot,” he said.

“I’m just at my wit’s end. I can’t sustain having to worry about the two out of 10, or two out of 100 bad guys that happen upon me.”

Sewell estimates Border Patrol is catching about one-third of the illegal aliens that are crossing. Last week, he personally saw 45 people, and his ranch is 27 square miles of remote pasture.

It’s also a hunting ranch, and he’s concerned about what will happen when the season opens on Oct. 2 and hundreds of people with high-powered rifles are in the area.

“If it’s anywhere close to this, there’s going to be multiple confrontations every single day,” he said.

He attributes the dramatic increase in illegal traffic to the Biden administration’s policies and doesn’t see help coming from Washington.

“It’s not our position to send them more money to keep their people in their own country. It’s our position to protect our borders,” he said.

“We live in a republic, the last I checked. And that means that our government is supposed to protect us from all of the things like this. But that is not happening.”

Vice President Kamala Harris has said she is focusing on the “root causes” of illegal immigration and aims to send more aid to Central American countries.

Border Patrol agents apprehend 21 illegal aliens from Mexico who had hidden in a grain hopper on a freight train heading to San Antonio, near Uvalde, Texas, on June 21, 2021. (Charlotte Cuthbertson/The Epoch Times)

Train Traffic

Archie McFadin lives near Uvalde, adjacent to where Border Patrol stops and inspects the trains traveling from the U.S.–Mexico border to San Antonio. As a train slows down to stop, often a stream of illegal aliens will jump off and run onto his property to avoid Border Patrol.

“They were down here this morning, a helicopter landed out here in the field and [Border Patrol] picked up some,” McFadin said on June 30.

McFadin said “everything changed” in January after President Joe Biden took office and revoked several key border security measures.

McFadin now gets illegal immigrants running around his property at least five days a week. His dog has stopped anyone from entering the immediate area by the house, but the day The Epoch Times visited, McFadin was having a home alarm system installed.

“We never even locked our vehicles,” he said.

“Now we live like we’re in prison, and our government is protecting them, not us.”

This year, Border Patrol has seen a 911 percent increase in the number of illegal aliens on the trains in Uvalde compared to last year.

“The increase in the number of illegal immigrants that are going through Uvalde on trains has become a serious problem for Border Patrol, local law enforcement, and our community, as most of these individuals have criminal records or gang affiliation and wouldn’t be allowed in our country,” Uvalde Mayor Don McLaughlin told The Epoch Times on June 23.

McFadin’s ranch hand now spends up to five hours a day checking and fixing fences on his other property that didn’t have a problem last year.

“Some of them are small holes where they try to slip through at night to catch a ride out here on Highway 55. Some of them are bigger holes,” he said. “To me, that’s just uncalled for.

“I wouldn’t even care if they came through here if they just wouldn’t tear up everything we’ve worked all of our lives for.”

Archie McFadin points out a cut fence that was intact that morning, on his property in Uvalde, Texas, on June 30, 2021. (Charlotte Cuthbertson/The Epoch Times)

McFadin replaced a wire fence around a ranch house on his property in February after it had been broken into and ransacked several times. The house now has a tall, steel welded fence with razor wire on top. No one has broken in since then, he said.

He won’t let his grandkids swim in the pool without an adult present and a firearm handy. His daughter and son-in-law don’t go fishing at the pond anymore.

Last week, four illegal aliens came up on his wife and one of his daughters as they were driving through a gate on the ranch. They called Border Patrol, but the four weren’t captured.

He said he’s never been scared of illegal immigrants in the past, but now he’s “very, very cautious” because they’re so aggressive.

“I honestly don’t know what to do. There’s nothing we can do. Vote, three and a half years from now. That’s the only thing I know of that I hope we can do,” McFadin said.

“How do we leave? How do we leave our horses? How do we leave our dogs? How do we leave this place? Even if we wanted to sell it, no one would buy it right now because we’re on the railroad track.”

END

Millennials are facing another housing market challenge as the supply of starter homes dries up.  The price is just too high

(zerohedge)

Millennials Face Another Housing Market Challenge, As Supply Of Starter Homes Dries Up

 
 
WEDNESDAY, JUL 07, 2021 – 09:45 PM

Not only have many millennials been priced out of the home market, as we have been documenting over the last few months, but now a supply constraint of starter homes is feeling like yet another roadblock. Starter homes are generally homes with smaller footprints and lower selling prices that allow first time buyers to enter the market.

27 year old Samantha Berrafato told the Wall Street Journal: “It just feels like every little thing keeps getting put on hold. I’ve been putting having kids on hold, and I had put having a wedding on hold because we just couldn’t afford it. Now it’s like [that with] the house buying.”

Berrafato and her husband started looking for a home about three months ago and only found one after including fixer-uppers and foreclosures to their search. 

The Journal noted that supply of “entry-level housing”, defined as homes under 1,400 square feet, is at a five decade low. There is also rising prices and broad competition to tend with. 

Ed Pinto, director of the AEI Housing Center at the American Enterprise Institute, said: “There just aren’t enough of these homes to fulfill the demand. It’s creating this ‘Great American Land Rush,’ as I call it. People are moving around and there’s tremendous demand, but the inventory is down.”

 

Samantha Berrafato and her husband

Additionally, the median age of the first time home buyer has risen to 33 years old, from 30 years old a decade ago, according to the National Association of Realtors. 

Sam Khater, chief economist and head of Freddie Mac’s Economic and Housing Research division, said: “This is a big deal. We need to think about how we talk about affordable housing, because for most people, when they hear affordable housing, there’s an instant negative reaction. They think ‘low-income,’ right? The issue now is these fissures have not just invaded the middle class. It’s now going up into the upper-middle-income strata.”

Robert Dietz, chief economist at the National Association of Home Builders, added: “It’s been the hardest kind of home to build over the last five, six or seven years.”

35 year old Matthew Libassi is also looking for a home with a budget of about $500,000. He told The Journal: “We don’t have a crazy list of demands. But the stuff that we’re seeing is just major overhauls and with putting all the money that we have in, it’s just not doable.”

Pinto concluded by stating that he believed many buyers were going to move outside of metro areas: “We think this is going to continue for some time, for years. Bottom line is, if you’re in an area like Phoenix or Raleigh or Austin, the people who are the current residents who would normally want to get on the first rung of that ladder—they’re going to have a much harder time.”

Recall, we wrote back in May that millennials were resorting to “fixer-upper” homes because they were being priced out of the market. 

 

The scorching hot price of housing had forced millennials to now turn to fixer-uppers as a “more affordable solution” for homes to buy, we wrote at the time. According to Bank of America Research’s sixth annual millennial home improvement survey, 82% of millennials had said they were more likely to buy a fixer-upper than a newly built home.

That report noted that the U.S. has been underbuilding homes since the Great Recession, pushing millennials toward their “second housing crisis in 12 years”. Demand from millennials has “only exacerbated the shrinking inventory” and “led to cutthroat competition rife with bidding wars”, Business Insider noted at the time.

Finally, we pointed out the growing number of housing-related Instagram pages like Cheap Old Houses, which focuses on historic homes selling for no more than $100,000 that offer fixer-upper opportunities. The account has grown to 1.5 million followers from 750,000 early last year. 

END

Something is up!! Wells unexpectedly shuts down all personal lines of credit. Without a doubt they are hinting that the USA economy is on the edge>

(zerohedge)

Wells Unexpectedly Shuts All Existing Personal Lines Of Credit, Hinting US Economy On The Edge

 
THURSDAY, JUL 08, 2021 – 10:52 AM

Wells Fargo just announced that it’s shutting down all of its existing personal lines of credit – a popular product offered by the retail-focused Wall Street giant – a move that will likely infuriate legions of customers.

The revolving credit lines, which will be shut down in the coming weeks, typically allow users borrow $3K to $100K, were pitched as a way to consolidate higher-interest credit-card debt, pay for home renovations or avoid overdraft fees on checking accounts attached to the loan.

According to CNBC, it’s the latest “difficult decision” facing Wells CEO Charlie Scharf, who is being forced to make cutbacks to the banks’ business thanks to restrictions imposed by the Federal Reserve years ago as punishment for the bank’s criminal scandals like the now-infamous scandal whereby branch managers opened credit lines for customers without permission. a scandal that outraged the public.

“Wells Fargo recently reviewed its product offerings and decided to discontinue offering new Personal and Portfolio line of credit accounts and close all existing accounts,” the bank said in the six-page letter. The move would let the bank focus on credit cards and personal loans, it said.

The sudden closures will leave many customers without what may be a critical source of liquidity. What’s worse, many will be penalized for the decision, making it more difficult for them to receive credit from a new source. Per CNBC, those whose credit lines are involuntarily closed will still see their FICO scores penalized as if they had elected to close the credit line willingly.

With its latest move, Wells Fargo warned customers that the account closures “may have an impact on your credit score,” according to a Frequently Asked Questions segment of the letter.

Another part of the FAQ asserted that the account closures couldn’t be reviewed or reversed: “We apologize for the inconvenience this Line of Credit closure will cause,” the bank said. “The account closure is final.”

Back in 2018, the Fed barred Wells Fargo from expanding its balance sheet until the central bank’s regulators decide that the bank has fixed its compliance shortcomings exposed by the fake accounts scandal and other abuses of the consumer.

The asset cap has ultimately cost the bank billions of dollars in lost earnings, based on the balance sheet growth of rivals like JPMorgan. It has also cost the mortgage giant its position as the biggest mortgage lender in the US (and to Quicken Loans, no less).

The last time Wells curtailed consumer credit was back in the summer of 2020 when it halted all new home equity lines of credit. At the time, many were unsure about the remaining purchasing power of the consumer (of course, trillions of dollars in federal stimulus money soon took care of that).

Which is why the timing of this latest decision is so curious. As Treasury yields drop, signaling unease about the trajectory of the global post-pandemic recovery, amid nervousness about a potential Fed rate hike before the end of next year, is the bank simply engaging in some prudent risk-management while using the Fed’s balance-sheet order as an excuse?

END
More and more people having trouble raising money to buy a home
WolfRichter

Americans See The Raging Housing Mania: “Bad Time To Buy” & “Good Time To Sell” Sentiments Spike To WTF Record

BY TYLER DURDEN
THURSDAY, JUL 08, 2021 – 12:35 PM

Authored by Wolf Richter via WolfStreet.com,

So just briefly: This explains some of the dynamics we have seen in the housing market recently, with mortgage applicationssales of existing homes, and sales of new single-family houses dropping for months even as investors have piled into the market and as inventories have started to rise.

Fannie Mae has been conducting its National Housing Survey monthly since 2010, one of the data collection efforts to come out of the Housing Bust. The survey covers a range of housing-related topics. And in its survey for June – conducted between June 1 and June 24 and released on Wednesday – there are record trend changes in consumers attitudes about whether it’s “a good time to buy a home,” or “a bad time to buy a home,” or “good time to sell a home,” or “a bad time to sell a home.” And you know what’s coming.

The percentage who said that it was a “bad time to buy a home” spiked over the past three months from record to record and in June hit 64%. Consumers cited home prices as the predominant reason.

A record low 32% of the respondents said that it was still a good time to buy a home, while the percentage of fence-sitters who didn’t know dropped to 4%.

“While all surveyed segments have expressed greater negativity toward homebuying over the last few months, renters who say they are planning to buy a home in the next few years have demonstrated an even steeper decline in homebuying sentiment than homeowners,” according to Fannie Mae’s press release.

“It’s likely that affordability concerns are more greatly affecting those who aspire to be first-time homeowners than other consumer segments who have already established homeownership,” the report said.

But it’s a great time to sell a home.

The percentage of respondents who said that it was a “good time to sell a home” spiked to a record of 77%:

Conversely, only 15% of the respondents said it was a “bad time to sell,” and 7% didn’t know.

During the Housing Bust in 2010 and 2011, when prices were low, fewer than 15% of the respondents said that it was a good time to sell. Folks know when homes are priced right to buy and when pricing is ridiculously out of whack for buyers but ideal for sellers, and when it’s time to sell.

But each of these insightful and motivated sellers eager to cash out at these ridiculous prices must find a buyer of the opposite persuasion who thinks they’re getting a deal, which is what makes a market. As the market moves forward, with nearly two-thirds of the people thinking that now is a bad time to buy a home, all these sellers have some explaining to do.

If these sentiments play out in reality, future demand by potential buyers at these crazy prices will be weak; and future supply of homes that sellers want to cash out of at these crazy prices will come out of the woodwork.

  end

Get ready for shrinkflation!

(zerohedge)

Grocery Stores Are Masking Price Hikes Via “Shrinkflation”

 
THURSDAY, JUL 08, 2021 – 12:55 PM

The continued decline in Treasury yields has prompted many short-sighted arm-chair analysts to declare that the Fed was right about inflationary pressures being “transitory”. Of course, as Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen herself admitted, a little inflation is necessary for the economy to function long term – because without “controlled inflation,” how else will policymakers inflate away the enormous debts of the US and other governments.

As policymakers prepare to explain to the investing public why inflation is a “good thing”, a report published this week by left-leaning NPR highlighted a phenomenon that is manifesting in grocery stores and other retailers across the US: economists including Pippa Malmgren call it “shrinkflation”. It happens when companies reduce the size or quantity of their products while charging the same price, or even more money.

As NPR points out, the preponderance of “shrinkflation” creates a problem for academics and purveyors of classical economic theory. “If consumers were the rational creatures depicted in classic economic theory, they would notice shrinkflation. They would keep their eyes on the price per Cocoa Puff and not fall for gimmicks in how companies package those Cocoa Puffs.”

However, research by behavioral economists has found that consumers are “much more gullible than classic theory predicts. They are more sensitive to changes in price than to changes in quantity.” It’s one of many well-documented ways that human reasoning differs from strict rationality (for a more comprehensive review of the limitations of human reasoning in the loosely defined world of behavioral economics, read Daniel Kahneman’s “Thinking Fast and Slow”).

Just a few months ago, we described shrinkflation as “the oldest trick in the retailer’s book” with an explanation of how Costco was masking a 14% price hike by instead reducing the sheet count in its rolls of paper towels and toilet paper.

NPR’s report started with the story of Edgar Dworsky, who monitors grocery store shelves for signs of “shrinkflation”.

A couple of weeks ago, Edgar Dworsky walked into a Stop & Shop grocery store in Somerville, Mass., like a detective entering a murder scene.

He stepped into the cereal aisle, where he hoped to find the smoking gun. He scanned the shelves. Oh no, he thought. He was too late. The store had already replaced old General Mills cereal boxes — such as Cheerios and Cocoa Puffs — with newer ones. It was as though the suspect’s fingerprints had been wiped clean.

Then Dworsky headed toward the back of the store. Sure enough, old boxes of Cocoa Puffs and Apple Cinnamon Cheerios were stacked at the end of one of the aisles. He grabbed an old box of Cocoa Puffs and put it side by side with the new one. Aha! The tip he had received was right on the money. General Mills had downsized the contents of its “family size” boxes from 19.3 ounces to 18.1 ounces.

Dworsky went to the checkout aisle, and both boxes — gasp! — were the same price. It was an open-and-shut case: General Mills is yet another perpetrator of “shrinkflation.”

It’s also being used for paper products, candy bars and other packaged goods.

Back in the day, Dworsky says, he remembers buying bigger candy bars and bigger rolls of toilet paper. The original Charmin roll of toilet paper, he says, had 650 sheets. Now you have to pay extra for “Mega Rolls” and “Super Mega Rolls” — and even those have many fewer sheets than the original. To add insult to injury, Charmin recently shrank the size of their toilet sheets. Talk about a crappy deal.

Shrinkflation, or downsizing, is probably as old as mass consumerism. Over the years, Dworsky has documented the downsizing of everything from Doritos to baby shampoo to ranch dressing. “The downsizing tends to happen when manufacturers face some type of pricing pressure,” he says. For example, if the price of gasoline or grain goes up.

The whole thing brings to mind a scene from the 2000s comedy classic “Zoolander”.

153

As promised we have a new triple variant code named Epsilon making it more infectious but less deadly. This is just the start, we are going to have much more mutations etc

(zerohedge)

 

California Researchers Discover America’s First “Triple” Mutant COVID Strain

 
THURSDAY, JUL 08, 2021 – 11:35 AM

Lately, public health ‘experts’ in the US, Australia and across the globe have been engaging in blatant fearmongering focused on mutant COVID strains including the Delta and Lamba variants (the latter of which was recently discovered in Peru, while Delta was first identified in India and has since spread across the globe).

And now, American authorities have yet another variant to pound the alarm about: researchers in California have discovered the epsilon variant, which features a “triple mutation” on the spike protein that the virus uses to infect humans, making it (in theory) more infectious, according to the Daily Mail.

This isn’t the first time scientists have discovered a so-called “triple variant”. Scientists in India have isolated variants with “double” and “triple” mutations.

Researchers from the University of Washington and Vir Biotechnology, based in San Francisco, found that the variant had three mutations on the spike protein, which the virus uses to enter and infect human cells.

The Epsilon variant was first identified in May 2020 and was virtually nonexistent until October.

It would later split into two separate versions, the B.1.427 and the more common B.1.429 mutation.

It has remained a relatively quiet variant of the virus outside of California, not causing an outbreak similar to the Indian ‘Delta’ variant.

Epsilon still managed to find its way into at least 44 countries, though 97 percent of the 49,221 cases worldwide have been recorded in the US

California is presently contributing roughly half of the new cases reported in the US over the past week. That state is home to roughly one-fifth of the US economy.

In addition to Cali, Hawaii and Nevada are also dealing with smaller outbreaks of the variant, which is also referred to as B.1.429 (the variants were given Greek letter names to help make them more memorable for the general public).

Researchers say both types of the variant have the ability to evade the neutralizing antibodies found in the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines, which are the most widely used jabs in the US.

The only question now is how much longer until scientists are using epsilon to justify making masks mandatory indoors again, or perhaps another lockdown?

end

Inflation watch!!

Patio furniture shortage!

special thanks to Robert H for sending this to us:

Have a seat: Patio furniture shortage tells US economic tale

COCKEYSVILLE, Maryland (AP) — People used to go to Valley View Farms to buy five tomato plants and end up with $5,000 in patio furniture.

This year is different. After a record burst of sales in March, the showroom floor is almost empty of outdoor chairs, tables and chaises for people to buy.

The garden supply store in suburban Baltimore has been waiting six months for a shipping container from Vietnam full of $100,000 worth of wicker and aluminum furniture. Half of the container has already been sold by showing customers photographs. The container should have arrived in February, but it reached U.S. waters on June 3 and has just docked in Long Beach, California.

“Everyone is just so far behind,” said John Hessler, 62, the patio section manager. “I’ve never seen anything like it.”

The Biden economy faces the unusual challenge of possibly being too strong for its own good.

There is the paradox of the fastest growth in generations at more than 6% yet also persistent delays for anyone trying to buy furniture, autos and a wide mix of other goods. It’s almost the mirror opposite of the recovery from the Great Recession of 2007-2009, which was marred by slow growth but also the near-instant delivery of almost every imaginable product.

What ultimately matters is that demand stay strong enough for companies to catch up and shorten the long waits.

“This is a very good problem for the economy to have,” said Gus Faucher, chief economist for PNC Financial Services. “You’re much better off having too much demand than too little, because too little demand is the recipe for an extended recession.”

Republicans have held out the shortages and price increases as a sign of economic weakness, while Biden can counter that wages are climbing at a speed that helps the middle and working classes. But the real challenge goes far beyond the blunt talking points of politicians to an economy being steered by a mix of market forces, tensions with China, setbacks from natural disasters and the unique nature of restarting an economy after a pandemic.

As America hurtles out of the July 4th weekend into the heart of summer, the outdoor furniture industry provides a snapshot of the dilemmas confronting the economy. A series of shortages has left warehouses depleted and prices rising at more than 11% annually as Americans resume BBQs and parties after more than a year of isolation. The industry cannot find workers, truckers and raw materials — a consequence of not just government spending but crowded ports, an explosion at an Ohio chemical plant and the devastating snowstorm that hit Texas in February.

Patio furniture makers interviewed by The Associated Press say they expect the supply squeeze to end in 2022 or 2023 — meaning it could remain a political flashpoint even if the broader risk of inflation fades as expected by many Federal Reserve officials and Wall Street analysts. The shortages reflect both the stranded shipping containers, a dearth of truckers and the compounded effect of a fatal explosion in April at the Yenkin-Majestic Paints and OPC polymer plant in Columbus, Ohio that depleted the domestic supply of furniture pieces.

The Biden administration, well aware aware of the challenge, has made fixing supply chains a priority. It’s also trying to direct more money to making the U.S. power grid and other infrastructure more resilient against extreme weather events as part of a bipartisan deal reached with Senate Republicans.

“You saw what happened in Texas this winter: The entire system in the state collapsed,” Biden said in a recent Wisconsin speech. “That’s why we have to act.”

Administration officials expect the supply chain issues to self-correct, though they’re cautious about asserting a specific timeframe because of the unprecedented nature of the recovery from the pandemic.

They noted that a shortage of toilet paper when the pandemic started was fixed within weeks because factories could ramp up production. But in this case, Biden’s White House views the problem in global terms, with many of the challenges being in Asian ports, rather than a problem that is solely domestic in nature.

Republican lawmakers have placed the blame exclusively on Biden’s $1.9 trillion coronavirus rescue package, saying the shortages are causing inflation that behaves like a tax by eating into workers’ salaries and savings. Outdoor furniture companies do say that finding workers has become more of a challenge in part because of the greater unemployment benefits, but they don’t buy fully into the Republican line that government dollars have caused a lasting price bump.

“The Biden inflation agenda of too much money chasing too few goods is causing major harm to hard-working families,” House Republican Whip Steve Scalise of Louisiana said at a June hearing.

The reality is not so simple for William Bew White III, who founded Summer Classics, an Alabama-based furnisher whose outdoor products look like they belong next to a Gilded Age mansion or terraced hotel along the Italian Riviera. He summarizes his problems as the three F’s: foam, fabric and freight.

“The freeze in Texas closed down two of the plants that make the chemicals that make foam,” he said. “These plants were not able to reopen until mid to late March. And supply dried up. I’m not sure how someone that’s in the upholstery business makes it on 40% to 60% of the needed products.”

His company can produce as many as 3,500 outdoor cushions a day, but for most of the year he was not getting the supplies he needed largely because of snow shutting down the Texas power grid. He’s having revenue growth of between 40% and 60% on an annual basis and it’s hard to judge how much to increase production to meet that demand and whether that demand can last.

He is more concerned with what his Chinese furniture suppliers are charging than prices at home. His prices in China have jumped as much as 26.5% since January, sometimes retroactively on orders that were already in shipping containers.

“This is not sustainable,” White said.

In many cases, companies are simply trying to absorb the higher costs. Erik Mueller, CEO of the Cincinnati-based outdoor furniture and home recreation chain Watson’s, said he wants to protect his store’s reputation as providing value. He doesn’t see the situation as paralleling the 1970s mix of stagnation and inflation that helped to drive Jimmy Carter out of the presidency after one term.

“This isn’t the 70s,” he said. “We still have goods that are reasonably priced.”

While he believes that generous unemployment benefits have stunted hiring because people can earn more by not working, Mueller also sees the inflation as a spillover from the pandemic. Some people could not work because of the disease or their shifts were cut. The rush for supplies as economies reopened occurred too fast for factories and shipping firms not yet able to return to their previous capacity. All of that was coupled with a United States that after a brutal year simply welcomed the relief of lounging by the pool with friends.

The problem is one of market forces that are beyond anyone individual’s authority, even the U.S. president’s.

“You have just this exorbitant amount of demand due to a unique situation that was out of everyone’s control,” Mueller said.

iv) Swamp commentaries/

 

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories./ of the day

Fed officials appear to be most divided on tapering or halting MBS QE: Various participants offered their views on the Committee’s agency MBS purchases. Several participants saw benefits to reducing the pace of these purchases more quickly or earlier than Treasury purchases in light of valuation pressures in housing markets. Several other participants, however, commented that reducing the pace of Treasury and MBS purchases commensurately was preferable because this approach would be well aligned with the Committee’s previous communications or because purchases of Treasury securities and MBS both provide accommodation through their influence on broader financial conditions…

CIBC:  “Overall, the minutes underscore the divisions within the committee at the moment, which will require a more discernable trend in economic data before there is a consensus on policy action. We think a continued acceleration in job gains ahead will represent enough of a trend for an announcement of an early 2022 tapering at the September meeting,” CIBC adds.
https://www.efxdata.com/insights/ad6278b405d1b209de967019e1aa65d5.html

The NYT’s @jeannasmialek: Today’s Fed minutes strike me as decidedly more worried about inflation than the last set. Left is June, right is April.  https://twitter.com/jeannasmialek/status/1412847733594116109?s=09

U.S. Treasury yields fell below 1.30% for the first time in more than four months as the global reflation trade faltered https://t.co/NjqQmbgyB4

WTI Oil hit a 4-year high of 74.86 at 7:49 ET.  It then plunged to a low of 71.07 at 10:27 ET.  The ensuing commodity rally was muted.  This dynamic also appeared on Tuesday.  An underlying reason is that beaucoup traders of various classes are conditioned to buy all dips in equities. 

Former President Trump announces class action suit against social media companies
The former president announced a class action suit against Facebook and Twitter. (Google too)
https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/all-things-trump/former-president-trump-says

TRUMP: “I am filing, as the lead class representative, a major class-action lawsuit against the Big Tech giants including Facebook, Google, and Twitter as well as their CEOs Mark Zuckerberg, Sundar Pichai, and Jack Dorsey.”  https://twitter.com/bennyjohnson/status/1412793723059064841

@newsmax: Trump: “There is no better evidence that big tech is out of control than the fact that they banned the sitting President of the United States earlier this year, a ban that continues to this day.”
https://twitter.com/newsmax/status/1412799819865853956
    Trump: “Google and YouTube have deleted countless videos that dare to question the judgement of the World Health Organization which has been wrong so often.” 
https://twitter.com/newsmax/status/1412797225705644035

@joelpollak: Trump closes his presser on Big Tech by pleading with media to cover violence in Democrat-run cities –– not just for partisan reasons, but so someone will do something about it. Is anyone else speaking for the victims? Say what you will about the guy, his voice is indispensable.
     Trump’s legal attack on the social media companies might ordinarily be expected to come to naught, but he is trying a new tack, arguing they are being coerced by the government to police speech, which Congress itself cannot do, and therefore they are violating the First Amendment.

@ColumbiaBugle: Tucker Carlson calling out Republicans for doing nothing on Big Tech censorship
“Unfortunately, most of them are very mediocre and dumb and afraid, but they have to step up because there’s nobody else to step up.”   https://twitter.com/ColumbiaBugle/status/1412853255344955399?s=09

Twitter suspends professor over posts mocking China’s Xi Jinping https://trib.al/f4RC1c9

May JOLTS Job Openings: 9.209m, previous 9.193m revised lower from 9.286m; 9.325m expected

BLS-Labor Statistics @BLS_gov: May job openings and hires little changed; total separations decrease https://t.co/hll2Uc4FZt

Nobody (Still) Wants to Work as Job Openings Hit New Record, But Number of People Quitting Tumbles https://t.co/H8Ossh2oJt

@EmeraldRobinson: A 13 year old boy named Jacob Clynick died in his sleep three days after getting his second dose of the Pfizer vaccine. An autopsy found that his heart was enlarged.  How many kids have to be harmed before we stop experimenting on them?

 

@disclosetv: “Lambda” was yesterday, today it’s the California “Epsilon” strain of COVID19 that may be evading vaccines, according to researchers at the University of Washington…

15 minutes before the NYSE close, uber-dove & Atlanta Fed Pres. Bostic unexpectedly went hawkish:
Bostic: Delaying Rate Rises Might Cause Economic and Financial System Instability – BBG
Bostic: Fed Getting Close to a Time Where Bond Buying Taper Will Be Appropriate– BBG

Today – US stock market volatility is increasing.  Organic sellers have been appearing, led by ebbing economy asset allocators.  However, conditioned buyers and those who need equities to rally keep buying dips and forcing stocks higher when they get the chance.

The two biggest reasons for the current increase in equity volatility is the recent Fed language about tapering QE and fears that the US and Chinese economies are ebbing.

Market historians will recognize that wicked volatility during the summer months with stocks at all-time highs and developing economic concerns appeared in 1929, 1973, 2000, and 2007.  In 1987, the summer volatility was unbelievable.  But the economy was strong; so, Volcker was hiking interest rates.

John Kenneth Galbraith’s excellent book, “The Great Crash 1929”, compellingly recounts the volatility in the summer of 1929.  Galbraith highlights that bulls and bears manipulating stocks in coordination with confederates in the media created the pernicious volatility.

Traders of various classes are over-the-moon bullish on stocks now, abetted by GS and others that have been proclaiming that this week and next will be extraordinarily bullish for equities because of expected beaucoup money flows into stocks.

ESUs are -2.00; NQUs are +6.00; USUs are +0.11 at 21:00 ET.  The dollar is up a tad. 

Expected economic data: Jobless Claims 350k, Continuing Claims 3.35m; May Consumer Credit $18.0B

S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 4215; 100-day MA: 4098; 150-day MA: 3987; 200-day MA: 3853
DJIA 50-day MA: 34,284; 100-day MA: 33,479; 150-day MA: 32,508; 200-day MA: 31,464

S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames
Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 3708.32 triggers a sell signal
WeeklyTrender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 4101.60 triggers a sell signal
DailyTrender and MACD are positive – a close below 4257.83 triggers a sell signal
Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4335.43 triggers a sell signal

Pennsylvania initiates full forensic election audit similar to Arizona’s
https://independentchronicle.com/pennsylvania-initiates-full-forensic-election-audit-similar-to-arizonas/

@ColumbiaBugle: President Trump discussing the killing Of Ashli Babbitt & the horrible treatment of January 6th Political Prisoners Trump on who shot Ashli Babbitt: “I believe I know exactly who it is.”
https://twitter.com/ColumbiaBugle/status/1412802455205777415

FBI seized ‘fully constructed US Capitol Lego set’ from alleged riot leader
https://nypost.com/2021/07/07/fbi-seized-us-capitol-lego-set-from-alleged-riot-leader/amp/

GOP Rep @laurenboebert: Our FBI is seizing Lego toy sets while Democrat cities are in the middle of massive crime waves. Let that sink in.

@TheBabylonBee: Based on LEGO Evidence, FBI Believes Capitol Rioter Was Also Planning Attack on Hogwarts Castle

@ColumbiaBugle: Tucker Carlson Joins @MariaBartiromo…to give an update on NSA spying – Tucker Announces That He Was Contacted by a Journalist Yesterday Who Informed Him the NSA Leaked His Emails to Journalists.  “They’re not allowed to spy on American citizens, they are.”
https://twitter.com/ColumbiaBugle/status/1412779425876353025

@Rasmussen_Poll: A journalist calls Tucker Carlson just before air last night and says US intelligence agents are distributing his emails and proceeds to repeat back words from an email known only to Tucker, the email recipient, and Tucker’s executive producer.

@SwainForSenate: First it was “Tucker is spreading a conspiracy that the NSA is spying on him!”
Then it was “Tucker is not the target, they just incidentally read his emails.”  Now it is “Tucker was trying to interview Putin so it is actually good that the NSA was spying on him. He deserved it!”

Apparently, the NSA is leaking out that it spied on Carlson when he was trying to arrange an interview with Putin via two intermediaries.  This is the means that the Deep State used to ensnarl Gen. Flynn!

@greg_price11: NBC News just interviewed Putin not too long ago. I wonder why the NSA didn’t collect their communications and leak it to the media. https://twitter.com/jonathanvswan/

Last night Tucker Carlson called for NSA Director Paul Nakasone and DNI Avril Haines to release the name of the person who criminally unmasked him.  Leaking his communications to the media is also a felony.  Carlson said a US Rep told him that he assumes that the NSA is spying on him and Congress fears (blackmail?) regulating US intel.  https://twitter.com/bennyjohnson/status/1412928269796642816

Ex-CIA operations official @BryanDeanWright: The NSA’s attempted leak & smear op of Tucker Carlson is not surprising. James @Comey leaked FBI intel to advance his political goal: appointment of a special counsel to damage Trump.  It worked. Comey benefitted. The Swamp noticed. The weaponization of intel is here to stay.

@charliekirk11: It should terrify everyone that in Joe Biden’s America the NSA, the military, the FBI, and the National Guard were all weaponized in one form or another to attack private citizens who are political opponents of the president.

Members of ‘Rise of the Moors’ sovereign citizen militia REFUSE to cooperate at arraignment and claim they are not subject to U.S. laws after 11 were arrested during armed standoff near Boston
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9762795/Rise-Moors-militia-members-REFUSE-cooperate-arraignment.html

@CBSNews: “We need to invest in people”: Pres. Biden says while promoting his education, childcare and health care priorities during a visit to Illinois https://cbsn.ws/3AyrR0V

@tomselliott: In response to spiking gas prices, Biden vows to raise taxes on gas companies $90 billion/year (to pay for his Family Plan).  https://twitter.com/tomselliott/status/1412863592374976512

WGN’s @BenBradleyTV: CPD confirms 1 person is in custody in connection to the shooting of 2 ATF agents and 1 police officer in Chicago this morning. (While Biden is in Chicago land)
https://twitter.com/BenBradleyTV/status/1412845139031216128?s=09

Chicago mayor asks Biden for help after bloody July 4 weekend https://trib.al/iU1L1gg

Indiana police officer killed at federal building on same day two ATF agents shot in Chicago
https://www.foxnews.com/us/indiana-police-officer-killed-atf-shot

Tennessee driver charged with attempted murder tried to plow down Memphis officer on sidewalk: court docs – Orlando Davie is being held on a $2.5 million bond
https://www.foxnews.com/us/tennessee-driver-attempted-murder-run-over-police-officer

Venture capitalist @APompliano: The only people who hate freedom are the people who can’t thrive and find success in a free society.  Freedom critics need the rules rigged in their favor, which tells you everything you need to know about them.

I WILL SEE YOU FRIDAY NIGHT

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