JULY22/GOLD UP $2.00 TO $1805.20//SILVER UP 10 CENTS TO 25.31//GOLD STANDING AT THE COMEX UP TO 7.197 TONNES//SILVER STANDING UP TO 33.575 MILLION OZ//CORONAVIRUS UPDATES/VACCINE UPDATES//MORE RAIN STORMS IN CHINA AS IT FACES FURTHER FLOODING//TURKEY HIT WITH MAJOR FLOODING ON ITS EASTERN COAST//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

 

GOLD:$1805.20 UP $2.00  The quote is London spot price

Silver:$25.31  UP  10 CENTS  London spot price ( cash market)

 
 
 
 

Closing access prices:  London spot

i)Gold : $1806.60 LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

ii)SILVER:  $25.41//LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

 

Mark your calendar!  Saturday July 24th is
World Ivermectin Day!
 

On July 24, 2021, people of the world will come together to celebrate ivermectin for a day focused on unity, love, and gratitude for this precious gift from Mother Earth.  Ivermectin is the key and has already brought immeasurable benefit to humanity.  It’s time to celebrate and let the world know that it’s going to be ok!

Click Here to find out more!

PLATINUM AND PALLADIUM PRICES BY GOLD-EAGLE (MORE ACCURATE)

 

 

PLATINUM  $1096.29  UP $12.73

PALLADIUM: $2724.57  UP $53.44  PER OZ.

 

END

Editorial of The New York Sun | February 1, 2021

end

DONATE

Click here if you wish to send a donation. I sincerely appreciate it as this site takes a lot of preparation.
 
 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

receiving today  96/131

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: JULY 2021 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,802.900000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 07/21/2021 DELIVERY DATE: 07/23/2021
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 3
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 130 11
661 C JP MORGAN 96
737 C ADVANTAGE 1 9
905 C ADM 12
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 131 131
MONTH TO DATE: 2,279

ISSUED:  0

Goldman Sachs:  stopped: 0

 
 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  JULY. CONTRACT: 131 NOTICE(S) FOR 13,100 OZ  (0.64074 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR THIS MONTH:  2279 FOR 227,900 OZ  (7,0886 TONNES)

 

SILVER//JULY CONTRACT

30 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 150,000  OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month 6561  :  for 32,805,000  oz

 

BITCOIN MORNING QUOTE  $31,778 UP 531  DOLLARS 

 

BITCOIN AFTERNOON QUOTE.:$31,341 UP 94  DOLLARS 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

GLD AND SLV INVENTORIES:

GLD AND SLV INVENTORIES:

Gold

WITH GOLD  UP $2.00 AND NO PHYSICAL TO BE FOUND ANYWHERE:

NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / 

 

WITH RESPECT TO GLD WITHDRAWALS:  (OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS)

 

GOLD IS “RETURNED” TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHEN CALLING IN THEIR LEASES: THE GOLD NEVER LEAVES THE BANK OF ENGLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BANK IS PROTECTING ITSELF IN CASE OF COMMERCIAL FAILURE

THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD!!

GLD  1028.55 TONNES OF GOLD//

Silver

AND WITH NO SILVER AROUND  TODAY: WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS

 A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.483 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV..

WITH REGARD TO SILVER WITHDRAWALS FROM THE SLV:

THE SILVER WITHRAWALS ARE ACTUALLY “RETURNED” TO JPM, AS JPMORGAN CALLS IN ITS LEASES WITH THE SLV FUND.  (THE STORY IS THE SAME AS THE BANK OF ENGLAND’S GOLD). THE SILVER NEVER LEAVES JPMORGAN’S VAULT. THEY ARE CALLING IN THEIR LEASES FOR FEAR OF SOLVENCY ISSUES.

INVENTORY RESTS AT: 

 

555.428  MILLION OZ./SLV

xxxxx

GLD closing price//NYSE 169.11 UP $0.35 OR 0.21%

XXXXXXXXXXXXX

SLV closing price NYSE 23.57 UP $0.15 OR 0.64%

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

 
 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

THE COMEX OI IN SILVER FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 2082 CONTRACTS  TO 149,681, AND FURTHER FROM THE NEW RECORD OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020. THE LOSS IN OI OCCURRED DESPITE OUR $0.25 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX  ON WEDNESDAY . IT SEEMS THAT THE LOSS IN COMEX OI IS PRIMARILY DUE TO MASSIVE BANKER AND ALGO  SHORT COVERING AS OUR BANKER FRIENDS ARE GETTING QUITE SCARED OF BASEL III INITIATED JUNE 28/2021 !// WE HAD SOME REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//.. COUPLED AGAINST A SMALL EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. WE HAVE SOME LONG LIQUIDATION AS TOTAL GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES EQUATES TO A  STRONG 1632 CONTRACTS. (8.160 MILLION OZ)//(DESPITE OUR  GAIN OF 25 CENTS) 

 

I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL:

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN SILVER TODAY: -20 CONTRACTS

WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A SMALL  NUMBER OF  COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 450,, AS WE HAD THE FOLLOWING ISSUANCE:,  JULY 0 AND SEPT 450 ZERO ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE 450 CONTRACTS. THE BANKERS ARE NOW BEING BITTEN BY THOSE SERIAL FORWARDS (EFP’S CIRCULATING IN LONDON) AS THEY ARE NOW BEING EXERCISED AND COMING BACK TO NEW YORK FOR REDEMPTION OF METAL.  THE COST TO SERVICE THESE SERIAL FORWARDS IS HIGH TO OUR BANKERS  BUT THEY HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO ISSUE A FEW OF THEM! SILVER IS IN BACKWARDATION AND AS SUCH THE DANGER TO OUR BANKERS IS LONDONERS WILL PURCHASE CHEAPER FUTURES METAL OVER HERE AND THEN TAKE DELIVERY.

HISTORY OF SILVER OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR THE PAST 33 MONTHS.

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

7.32     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

2.630     MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOV.

20.970   MILLION OZ  FINAL STANDING IN DEC

2020

5.075     MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JAN

1.480    MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN FEB

23.005  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAR 

4.660  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR APRIL

45.220 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAY***(5THHIGHEST RECORDED STANDING FOR SILVER)

2.205  MILLION OF FINAL STANDING FOR JUNE

86.470  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JULY…RECORD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED

6.475 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN AUGUST

55.400 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN SEPT (3RD HIGHEST RECORDED STANDING)

8.900 MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT.

3.950 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN NOV.

46.685 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR DEC. (4TH HIGHEST RECORDED STANDING)

2021

60 MILLION FINAL STANDING FOR JAN 2021

12.020  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR FEB 2021

58.425 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MARCH 2021//2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED

14.935 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR APRIL

36.365 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAY 

14.505MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR JUNE

33.575  MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING FOR JULY

TUESDAY, AGAIN OUR CROOKS USED COPIOUS PAPER TRYING TO LIQUIDATE SILVER’S PRICE …AND THEY WERE

UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN ,(IT ROSE BY $0.25)  BUT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE SOME SILVER LONGS WITH WEDNESDAY’S TRADING.  WE HAD A STRONG LOSS OF 1632 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES..  THE LOSS WAS  ALSO DUE TO i) HUGE BANKER/ALGO SHORT COVERING// WE ALSO HAD  ii) SOME REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//.    iii)  A VERY SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) A  STRONG INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 38.535 MILLION OZ BUT THEN TODAY A 100,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP:  NEW STANDING 33.575 MILLION OZ// / v)  VERY STRONG COMEX OI LOSS 
.
YOU CAN BET THE FARM THAT OUR BANKERS  ARE DESPERATE TO LIQUIDATE THEIR HUGE SHORT POSITIONS IN SILVER..
 
 
 
 
 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

 

JULY

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY /FOR MONTH OF  JULY:

18,029 CONTRACTS (FOR 14 TRADING DAY(S) TOTAL 18,029 CONTRACTS) OR 90.145MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1287 CONTRACTS OR 6.389 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF JULY: 90.145  MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON

JAN EFP ACCUMULATION FINAL:  113.735 MILLION OZ

FEB EFP ACCUMULATION FINAL:   208.18 MILLION OZ (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

MAR EFP ACCUMULATION SO FAR: : 103.450 MILLION OZ  (DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//FEARS OF EFP CONTRACTS BEING EXERCISED FOR METAL)

APRIL: 84.730 MILLION OZ  (SILVER IS NOW IN SEVERE BACKWARDATION AND THUS DRAMATICALLY FEWER ISSUANCE OF EFP’S)

MAY: 137.83 MILLION OZ

 

JUNE:  149.91 MILLION OZ// ISSUANCE RATE NOW SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE THE MONTH OF MAY

JULY:  90.145 MILLION OZ )  SLIGHTLY BELOW PAR WITH JUNE)

RESULT: WE HAD A VERY STRONG DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 2082 , DESPITE OUR $0.25 LOSS  IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ///WEDNESDAY .…THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A VERY SMALL SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 450 CONTRACTS WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS.

TODAY WE HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED LOSS OF 1632 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES (DESPITE OUR   $0.25 GAIN IN PRICE)//THE DOMINANT FEATURE TODAY: HUGE BANKER SHORTCOVERING/  AND AFTER A  STRONG INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JULY. (38.535 MILLION OZ), WE HAD A 100,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP /NEW STANDING 33.575 MILLION OZ/

 

THE TALLY//EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

i.e  450  OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s)TOGETHER WITH A VERY STRONG SIZED DECREASE OF 2082 OI COMEX CONTRACTS.AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND HAPPENED WITH OUR $0.25 GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER/AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $25.21/ WEDNESDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY. 

WE HAD  30  NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR 150,000 OZ

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018. AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.70//TODAY’S RECORD OF 244,705 WAS SET WITH A PRICE OF: 18.91 (FEB 25/2020)

AND YET, WITH THE SILVER IN BACKWARDATION (INDICATING SCARCITY), WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 
 
 
 

GOLD

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 12,240 CONTRACTS TO 502,760 ,,AND CLOSER TO  OUR NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110. 

 

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: -2738 CONTRACTS.

THE STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI CAME DESPITE OUR CONSIDERABLE LOSS IN PRICE OF $7.85///COMEX GOLD TRADING/WEDNESDAY.AS IN SILVER WE MUST HAVE HAD HUGE BANKER/ALGO SHORT COVERING ACCOMPANYING OUR SMALL SIZED EXCHANGE FOR  PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. WE ALSO HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AS, WE HAD A GIGANTIC SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 16,006 CONTRACTS.  WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR JULY AT 3.144 TONNES WHICH WAS FOLLOWED BY A HUGE 13,100 OZ QUEUE JUMP//COMEX STANDING NOW AT 7.197 TONNES. OUR CROOKED BANKERS ARE BADLY IN NEED OF METAL ON THIS SIDE OF THE ATLANTIC.
 
 

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $7.85 WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S TRADING

 

WE HAD A VOLUME OF 0    4 -GC CONTRACTS//OPEN INTEREST  0//

WE HAD A GIGANTIC SIZED GAIN OF 13,268  OI CONTRACTS (41.26 TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES…

 

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A SMALL SIZED 1028 CONTRACTS:

CONTRACT  AND JULY:  0; AUGUST: 1028 & DEC 0  ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO//TOTAL: 1028 The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 502,760. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EXCHANGE DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A GIGANTIC SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 13,268  CONTRACTS: 12,240 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 1028 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 13,268 CONTRACTS OR 41.26 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A SMALL SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (1028) ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (12,240 OI): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES: 13,268 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING/BIS MANIPULATION WITH CONSIDERABLE ALGO SHORT COVERING ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR JULY AT 3.144 TONNES//FOLLOWED BY A 13,100 OZ QUEUE  JUMP,//NEW STANDING 7.197 TONNES// //3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION, /// ;4)  VERY STRONG SIZED COMEX OI GAIN AND 5) SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL

 

SPREADING OPERATIONS/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD  (WE SWITCHED OVER TO GOLD ON JULY  1)

FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS:

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED IN GOLD  AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF AUGUST.

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

 
 

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

.

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO GOLDAS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY. HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST FOR GOLD:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF JULY. BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (AUGUST), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

 
 
 
 
 
 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2021 INCLUDING TODAY

JULY

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JULY : 37,710, CONTRACTS OR 3,771,000 oz OR 117.29 TONNES (14 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2693 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 14 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 117.29 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2020, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  117.29/3550 x 100% TONNES  3.30% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO DATE
JANUARY: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)
 
FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..
 
 
MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN///IT SURPASSED JANUARY!!)

 

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        117.29 TONNES INITIAL (FALLING  IN RATE FROM JUNE)

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, FELL BY STRONG SIZED 2082 CONTRACTS TO 149,701 AND FURTHER FROM OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  3 1/4 YEARS AGO.  

EFP ISSUANCE 450 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

  JULY 0  AND SEPT: 450 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  450 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI LOSS OF 2082 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 450 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,WE OBTAIN A STRONG SIZED LOSS OF 1632 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES 

 

THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 8.160 MILLION  OZ, OCCURRED WITH OUR  $0.25 GAIN IN PRICE. 

 

 

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL..THE EVIDENCE IS CLEAR: HUGE AMOUNTS OF PHYSICAL STANDING FOR BOTH  SILVER AND GOLD .

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Gold

(Peter Schiff, Egon von Greyerz///zerohedge + OTHER COMMENTARIES

 
 

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)THURSDAY MORNING/WEDNESDAY  NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 12.07  PTS OR 0.34%   //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 499.26 PTS OR 1.83%      /The Nikkei closed   //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 1.03%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP TO 6.4674  /Oil UP TO 68.15 dollars per barrel for WTI and 70.45 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN  /ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED  UP AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.4674. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.4691/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%/

 
 
 
 
3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

NORTH KOREA//USA/OUTLINE

END

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3 C CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

OUTLINE
 

COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG  SIZED 12,240 CONTRACTS TO 502,760 MOVING CLOSER TO  THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020).  AND THIS STRONG COMEX INCREASE OCCURRED DESPITE OUR CONSIDERABLE LOSS OF $7.85 IN GOLD PRICING WEDNESDAY’S  COMEX TRADING/.WE ALSO HAD A SMALL EFP ISSUANCE (1028 CONTRACTS). …AS THEY WERE PAID HANDSOMELY  NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AND SETTLE FOR CASH.

 

WE NORMALLY HAVE WITNESSED  EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS. IT SEEMS THAT ARE BANKERS FRIENDS ARE EXERCISING EFP’S FROM LONDON AND NOW THEY ARE LOATHE TO ISSUE NEW ONES.  

 

(SEE BELOW)

WE  HAD 0    4 -GC VOLUME//open interest REMAINS AT   0

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW MOVING TO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A SMALL SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 1028 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  ;: ,  JULY 0 & AUGUST:  1028  & DEC.  0  & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1028  CONTRACTS 

 

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION,  EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A HUGE SIZED 13,268 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 1028 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A STRONG SIZED COMEX OI OF 12,240 CONTRACTS.WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR JULY   (6.7900),

 HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 6 MONTHS OF 20201:

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB. 113.424 TONNES

JAN: 6.500 TONNES.

 

THE BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT FELL $7.85)., BUT THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING ANY LONGS AS WE HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 13,268 CONTRACTS. THE TOTAL GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES REGISTERED 41.26 TONNES,ACCOMPANYING OUR HUGE GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR JULY (6.7900 TONNES)..I  STRONGLY BELIEVE THAT OUR BANKER FRIENDS ARE GETTING QUITE NERVOUS.  THE HUGE SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI IS DUE TO BANKER SHORT COVERING IN A BIG WAY.  THEY ARE LOOKING OVER THEIR SHOULDERS AND WITNESSING MASSIVE SILVER/GOLD SHORTAGES THAT CANNOT BE COVERED. THEY ARE TRYING TO FLEE IN HASTE “FROM DODGE”.

THE BIS REMOVED -2738  CONTRACTS FROM COMEX TRADES. THESE WERE REMOVED AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT. 

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES :: 13,268 CONTRACTS OR 1326,800 OZ OR  41.26  TONNES

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT COMMODITY FUTURES OPEN INTEREST SHOULD APPROXIMATE 3% OF TOTAL PRODUCTION.  IN GOLD THE WORLD PRODUCES AROUND 3500 TONNES PER YEAR BUT ONLY 2200 TONNES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE WEST (THUS EXCLUDING RUSSIA, CHINA ETC..WHO KEEP 100% OF THEIR PRODUCT.
 
THUS IN GOLD WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:  502,760 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS X 100 OZ PER CONTRACT = 50.54 MILLION OZ/32,150 OZ PER TONNE =  1563 TONNES

 

THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST REPRESENTS 1563/2200 OR 71.07% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF GOLD.

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX GOLD TODAY:240,944 contracts//    / volume poor//

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY: 290,409 contracts// – fair//  

// //most of our traders have left for London

 

JULY 22

/2021

 
INITIAL STANDINGS FOR JULY COMEX GOLD
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
NIL OZ
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz
NIL
 
 
 
 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz
 
 
 
NIL
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
No of oz served (contracts) today
131  notice(s)
 
13,100 OZ
0.4074 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)
35 contracts
3500oz
 
0.1088 TONNES
 
 
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
2279 notices
227,900 OZ
7.0886 TONNES
 
 
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz
 
 
 
We had 0 deposit into the dealer
 
 
 
 
total deposit: NIL   oz 
 

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had  0 deposits into the customer account
 
 
 
TOTAL CUSTOMER DEPOSITS NIL  oz  
 
 
 
 
 
 
We had 0  customer withdrawals….
 
 
 
 
 
total customer withdrawals NIL   oz  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

We had 0  kilobar transactions 0 out of  0 transactions)

ADJUSTMENTS  0//

 

 

The front month of JULY registered a total of 166 contracts for a LOSS of ONLY 69.  We had 200 notices filed on Wednesday so we GAINED 131 contracts or an additional 13,100 oz will stand for gold at the comex as they refused to morphed into London based forwards.  Somebody was in urgent need of physical on this side of the pond. 

 

 
 
 
 
 
AUGUST LOST 15,818  CONTRACTS DOWN TO 196,695 AS WE COUNT DOWN TO THE NEXT BIG GOLD DELIVERY MONTH!!
 
SEPT gained 686 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 1237
 
OCTOBER GAINED 1976 CONTRACTS UP TO 30,869.

We had 131 notice(s) filed today for 13,100  oz

FOR THE JULY 2021 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 131  contract(s) of which 0  notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 96 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0  notices received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JULY /2021. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (2279) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  (JULY: 166 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today  131 x 100 oz per contract equals 231,400 OZ OR 7.197TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this active month of JULY

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JULY contract month:

No of notices filed so far (2279) x 100 oz+( 166  OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (131} x 100 oz} which equals 231,400 oz standing OR 7.197 TONNES in this NON- active delivery month of JULY.

We  GAINED an additional 13,100 oz that will stand on this side of the Atlantic.

 
 

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

427,737.391, oz NOW PLEDGED  march 5/2021/HSBC  13.30 TONNES

202,692.098 PLEDGED  MANFRA 6.30 TONNES

276,177.249, oz  JPM  8.59 TONNES

1,187,560.751 oz pledged June 12/2020 Brinks/36.93 TONNES

111,411.349, oz Pledged August 21/regular account 3.46 tonnes JPMORGAN

42,638,023 oz International Delaware:  1.326 tonnes

nil oz Malca

total pledged gold:  2,248,216.862. oz                                     69.92 tonnes

 

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES…. WE HAVE 505.17 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS i.e. 7.1970 tonnes

CALCULATION OF REGISTERED THAT CAN BE SETTLED UPON:

total registered or dealer  18,579,471.635 oz or 577.89 tonnes
 
 
 
total weight of pledged: 2,248,216.862 oz or 69.92 tonnes
 
 
registered gold that can be used to settle upon: 16,331,255.0 (507,97 tonnes) 
 
 
 
 
true registered gold  (total registered – pledged tonnes16,331,255.0 (507.97 tonnes)   
 
 
total eligible gold: 16,880,872.940 oz   (525.06 tonnes)
 
 
 
total registered, pledged  and eligible (customer) gold  35,460,344.575 oz or 1,102.96 tonnes
 (INCLUDES 4 GC GOLD)
 
 

total 4 GC gold:   126.34 tonnes

total gold net of 4 GC:  976.62 tonnes

end

 
 

I have compiled  data with respect to registered (or dealer) gold taken on first day notice for each of the past 24 months

The data begins on first day notice for the May month taken on the last day of July 2018. and it continues to present day.

I then took, how many deliveries were recorded by the CME for each and every month.  I also included for reference the price of gold on first day notice.

The first graph is a logarithmic  graph and the second graph, linear.

You can see the huge explosion of registered gold at the comex along with deliveries.

 
 
THE DATA AND GRAPHS:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
END

July 22/2021

And now for the wild silver comex results

INITIAL STANDING FOR SILVER//JULY

JULY. SILVER COMEX CONTRACT MONTH//INITIAL STANDING

Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
596,953.139 oz
 
Manfra
 
Delaware
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
NIL OZ
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
1,200,252.350 OZ
brinks
Manfra
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
whatever enters the comex faults
leaves
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
No of oz served today (contracts)
30
 
CONTRACT(S)
150,000  OZ)
 
No of oz to be served (notices)
154 contracts
 (770,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  6561 contracts

 

32,805,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
 
We had 0 deposit into the dealer
 

total dealer deposits:  nil        oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had  2 deposits into customer account (ELIGIBLE ACCOUNT)

 
i) Into Brinks: 600,412.990 oz
ii) Into Manfra:  599,839.360 oz
 
 
 
 
 

JPMorgan now has 187.5 million oz  silver inventory or 53.43% of all official comex silver. (187.4 million/351.395 million

total customer deposits today 1,200,252.350   oz

we had 2 withdrawals

i) Out of Manfra:  595,971.749 oz

ii) Out of Delaware: 981.400 oz

 

 
 
 

total withdrawals 596,953.149       oz

 
 

adjustments//1

Into Loomis:  641,9088.500 oz  leaves eligible Loomis//accounting error

 

 
 

Total dealer(registered) silver: 114.422 million oz

total registered and eligible silver:  351.395 million oz

a net 600,000 oz leaves  the comex silver vaults.

silver continually is leaving comex vaults.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 
 
 

July LOST  127 contracts DOWN to 184 contracts. We had 147 notices filed on Wednesday so we gained 20 contracts or an additional  100,000 oz will  stand for silver at the comex in this very active delivery month of July as they refused to morph into London based forwards

 

AUGUST GAINED 106 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 2148

SEPTEMBER LOST 2059 CONTRACTS DOWN TO  113,448

 
NO. OF NOTICES FILED:  30  FOR 150,000 OZ.

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JULY. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at  6561 x 5,000 oz = 32,805,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JULY (184) and the number of notices served upon today 30 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the JULY standings for silver for the JULY/2021 contract month: 6561 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of JULY( 184)  – number of notices served upon today (30) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the JULY contract month .equals 33,575,000 oz. ..VERY POOR FOR JULY. 

We gained 20 contracts or 100,000 oz will stand for delivery at the comex as they search out for metal on the this side of the Atlantic.  

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME  47,214 CONTRACTS // volume  poor//getting out of Dodge//(

 

FOR YESTERDAY  52,317  ,CONFIRMED VOLUME/  poor/

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV  FALLS TO -1.57% (JULY  22/2021)

SILVER FUND POSITIVE TO NAV

no of oz of physical silver held  jULY 8.2021;  150,926,000  (GAIN OF 6.411 MILION OZ IN A MONTH)

No of oz of physical silver held; MAY 24/2021  144,515,694 OZ

No. of oz of physical silver held:  Sept 20/20: 85,907.3616  Oz

No of oz pf physical silver held: Dec 21/2019:  65,073.570 Oz

During the past 8 months Sprott has added: 58,608.30 Oz

So far this year: 53.8 million oz

2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV FALLS TO -1.18% nav   (JULY 22)

 

/2021 )

 

3. SPROTT CEF .A   FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA)

NAV $19.38 TRADING 19.14//NEGATIVE  1.25

 

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/(this vehicle is a fraud as there is no gold behind them!)

JULY 22/WITH GOLD UP $2.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1028.55 TONNES

JULY 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.85 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1028.55 TONES/

JULY 20/WITH GOLD UP $2.20 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GDL//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1028.55 TONNES

JULY 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.65 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.82 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1028.55 TONNES.

JULY 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.50 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1034.37 TONNES

July 15/WITH GOLD UP $3.20 TODAY: VERY STRANGE: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.91 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1034.37 TONNES.

JULY 14/WITH GOLD UP $15.50 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1037.28 TONNES

JULY 13/WITH GOLD UP $3.70 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.91 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1037.28 TONNES.

July 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.55 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1040.19 TONNES.

JULY 9/WITH GOLD UP $10,25 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1040.19 TONNES

JULY 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.90 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.04 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1040.18 TONNES

JULY 7/WITH GOLD UP $7.70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1042.23 TONNES

JULY 6/WITH GOLD UP $11.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .48 TONNES//INVENTORY REST AT 1042.23 TONNES

JULY 2/WITH GOLD UP $6.15 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.62 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1043.16 TONNES

JULY 1/WITH GOLD UP $5.55 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1045.78 TONNES

JUNE 30/WITH GOLD UP $8.30 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1045.78 TONNES

JUNE 29/WITH  GOLD DOWN $17.55 TODAY;A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD;A DEPOSIT OF 2.91 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1045.78 TONNES

JUNE 28/WITH GOLD UP $2.00 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1042.65 TONNES/

JUNE 25/WITH GOLD UP $1.45 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1042.65 TONNES

JUNE 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.20 TODAY: TWO HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.9 TONNES FROM THE GLD AT 3 PM AND ANOTERH 3.78 TONNES AT 5 20 PM///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1042.65 TONNES

JUNE 23/WITH GOLD UP $5.75 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1049.55 TONNES

JUNE 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1049.55 TONNES//

JUNE 21/WITH GOLD UP $13.70 TODAY: TWO HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 11.09 TONNES INTO THE GLD AT 3 PM AND THEN A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.42 TONNES AT 5 PM////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1049.55 TONNES

JUNE 18/WITH GOLD DOWN  $7.70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1041.99 TONNES/

JUNE 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $83.10 TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.62 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1041.99 TONNES.

JUNE 16/WITH GOLD UP $5.05 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1044.61 TONNE

JUNE 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.25 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1044.61 TONNES.

JUNE 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.60 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1044.61 TONNES

JUNE 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $15.90 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.45 TONNES INTO THE GLD/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1044.61 TONNES

JUNE 10/WITH GOLD UP $1.40 TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 5.83 TONNES INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1043.16 TONNES.

JUNE 9/WITH GOLD UP $1.05 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1037.33 TONNES

JUNE 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 5.93 TONNES FROM THE GLD/.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1037.33 TONNES

JUNE 7/WITH GOLD UP $6.50 TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/” A DEPOSIT OF 1.41 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY REST AT 1043.16 TONNES.

JUNE 4/WITH GOLD UP $18.70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1041.75 TONNES

JUNE 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $35.75 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.08 TONNES FORM THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1041.75 TONNES

JUNE 2/WITH GOLD UP $4.85 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A DEPOSIT OF 2.62 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1045.83 TONNES/

JUNE 1/WITH GOLD UP $0.10 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1043.21  TONNES

MAY 28/WITH GOLD UP $6.85 TODAY:A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/; A WITHDRAWAL OF .87 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1043.21 TONNES

MAY 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.35 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1044.08 TONNES

MAY 26/WITH GOLD UP $4.45 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.04 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1044.08 TONNES

 
 
 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Inventory rests tonight at:

 

JULY 22 / GLD INVENTORY 1028.55 tonnes

 

LAST;  1098 TRADING DAYS:   +104.14 TONNES HAVE BEEN ADDED THE GLD

 

LAST 948 TRADING DAYS// +  278.76. TONNES HAVE NOW  BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

 

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them!

JULY 22/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.483 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 555.428 MILLION OZ..

JULY 21/WITH SILVER UP 25 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 556.911 MILLION OZ//

JULY 20/WITH SILVER  DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A MONSTER WITHDRAWAL OF 4.171 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 556.911 MILLION OZ.

JULY 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 64 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A DEPOSIT OF 7.23 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 561.082 MILLION OZ/

JULY 16.WITH SILVER  DOWN 57 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.298 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY REST AT 553.852 MILLION OZ//

JULY 15/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 555.150 MILLION OZ/

JULY 14/SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 550.150 MILLION OZ

JULY 13/WITH SILVER  DOWN 5  CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTOR RESTS AT 555.150 MILLION OZ..

JULY 12/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV//: A WITHDRAWAL OF 926,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 555.150 MILLION OZ

JULY 9/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 556.077 MILLION OZ//

JULY 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY //NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 556.077 MILLION OZ.

JULY 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 5  CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.854 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/// INVENTORY RESTS AT 556.077 MILLION OZ//

JULY 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 29 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//: A WITHDRAWAL OF 242,000  OZ INVENTORY REST AT 557 931 MILLION OZ.

JULY 2/WITH SILVER UP 35 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.966 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 558.173 MILLION OZ.

JULY 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 561.139 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 30/WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.781 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 561.139 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 32 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 927,000 OZ FORM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 558.358 MILLION OZ.

JUNE 28/WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.762 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 559.285 MILLION OZ

JUNE 25//WITH SILVER DOWN 0 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.391 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 561.047 MILLION OZ

 

JUNE 24/WITH  SILVER DOWN 1 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.854 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 562.438 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 23/WITH SILVER UP 23 CENTS TODAY:A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.391 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 564.292 MILLION OZ../

JUNE 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.173 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 565.683 MILLION OZ..

JUNE 18/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 573.657 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 17/WITH SILVER DOWN $1.86 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.339 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTRS AT 573.657 MIILLION OZ//

JUNE 16/WITH SILVER UP 17 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 576.996 MILLION OZ/

JJUNE 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 35 CENTS TODAY; NOCHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 576.996 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY; TWO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/): i)A WITHDRAWAL OF 371,000 OZ FROM THE SLV and then ii) A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.484 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/////NVENTORY RESTS AT 576.996 MILLION OZ

JUNE 11/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 575.883 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 10/WITH SILVER UP  ONE CENT TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 575.883 MILLION OZ.

UNE 9/ WITH SILVER UP 17 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 577.228 MILLION OZ.

JUNE 8/WITH SILVER  DOWN 28 CENTS TODAY: TWO HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 928,000 OZ AND THEN ANOTHER 231,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 577.228 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 7/WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY REST AT 578.387 MILLION OZ..

JUNE 4/ WITH SILVER UP 33 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 578.387 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 3/WITH SILVER DOWN 71 CENTS TODAY//A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A DEPOSIT OF 1.714 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 578.387 MILLION OZ

JUNE 2/WITH SILVER UP  12 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 576.673 MILION OZ.

JUNE 1//WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 576.673 MILLION OZ/

MAY 28/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 576.673 MILLION OZ/

MAY 27/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV..INVENTORY RESTS AT 576.673 MILLION OZ.

MAY 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 576.673 MILLION OZ/

 

SLV INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT

JULY 22/2021      556.911 MILLION OZ

 
 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i)Peter Schiff:

Peter Schiff: The Markets Are Afraid Of The Wrong Thing

 
THURSDAY, JUL 22, 2021 – 03:20 PM

Via SchiffGold.com,

The markets have been jittery lately. The mainstream remains concerned about inflation – more specifically that the Fed is going to tighten monetary policy sooner rather than later to fight rising prices. But in his podcast, Peter Schiff makes the case that the markets are afraid of the wrong thing. They shouldn’t be worried about the Fed fighting inflation. They should be worried that it won’t.

There was a big global selloff in stocks earlier this week. The Dow was down nearly 900 points at its low. The mainstream blamed the big selloff on COVID fears. But Peter said he wasn’t so sure. After all, it’s not like anything really changed over the weekend. The delta variant of COVID-19 was just as much a problem on Friday as it was on Monday. Peter said he thought the coronavirus was a convenient excuse and that markets are becoming more concerned that the Fed is going to take away the punch bowl and prick the bubble.

The markets continue to fret over inflation. But it’s not inflation per se that they’re worried about.

What’s bothering the market is that the market believes the Fed is going to fight inflation – that the Fed is going to do what it said. After all, Jerome Powell just assured the nation, ‘Have faith. We will make sure there is no inflation. We believe it’s transitory, but in the event that we’re wrong, don’t worry. We’re going to be on the job. We’re going to use our tools. We’re reluctant to use them now, but don’t worry. We’ll use them in the future if we have to.’ And the markets are taking the Fed at its word. I don’t know why, but they still believe the things that Fed officials say.

The markets are worried about higher interest rates and that the Fed will begin to taper asset purchases. They’re worried that the central bank will shut down the party sooner than expected.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently announced an end to its quantitative easing program. Many believe this is a prelude to interest rate hikes in that country.

I think the fact that you have a central bank ending QE, the markets are now anticipating the other dominos that are going to fall. It’s not just going to be this one central bank in a small little country like New Zealand. This is simply indicative of something that’s going to be playing out on a much bigger scale with central banks all around the world. And that’s why it was a global selloff.”

The question is will the US follow that path? Peter doesn’t think so.

Even with the big risk-off day on Monday, investors didn’t pile into gold. The yellow metal was basically flat on Monday. And as risk sentiment returned on Tuesday, gold felt some selling pressure. Peter said the reason people aren’t piling into gold is because they not only think the Fed will fight inflation, but that it will be successful. But he thinks the price of gold will ultimately go way up.

Unlike the markets, I not only don’t expect the Fed to win a fight against inflation; I don’t expect it to get in the ring. I think inflation is going to win by default because the government’s not even going to attempt to fight because the consequences are too high. And that’s what the markets just don’t seem to understand.”

If the Fed was really willing and able to use its inflation-fighting tools, why hasn’t it started to use them given inflation has run hotter than expected every month this year?

Given the severity of the consequences of inflation not being transitory, it makes no sense for the Fed to roll the dice and take a chance. It should do something preemptively to prevent that from happening. The only reason it’s not doing something preemptively is because it doesn’t want to hurt the economy. Well, you should hurt the economy in order to prevent it from being hurt far worse in the future if the gamble doesn’t pay off.”

It’s easy to talk about doing something hard in the future. A fat guy can talk about going on a diet next week or next month. But actually going on that diet is a different matter altogether. When push comes to shove, will the Fed be able to back up its talk and give the economy the medicine that it needs, despite the consequences?

As difficult as it would be for the Fed to use its tools to fight inflation today, it’s going to be much more difficult tomorrow to use those tools because the inflation problem is going to be much bigger, which means they’re going to have to take a much bigger hammer to the economy. So, they’re going to do much more damage to an even greater leveraged economy when they have to fight an even larger inflation monster.

Peter said investors are afraid of the wrong thing.

Instead of being afraid of the inflation fight, they should be afraid of inflation and the fact that it wins, that there is no fight, and it gets much worse than everybody expects.”

END

EGON VON GREYERZ//MATHEW PIEPENBERG//PAM AND RUSS MARTENS

Von Greyerz: The ‘Fake’ Paper Tail Is Wagging The Golden Dog

 
THURSDAY, JUL 22, 2021 – 06:30 AM

Authored by Egon von Greyerz via GoldSwitzerland.com,

Investors may hope that the biggest financial experiment and debt bubble in history will last another 100 years. And they can pray that the currency system which has lost 98% of its value in the last 50 years will last another half century.

But that would be investing on a wing and a prayer with extremely poor odds of success.

Since neither the wing nor the prayer is likely to save investors from the greatest economic and financial collapse in global history, the need for protection or insurance is vital.

We are of course looking at probabilities and not certainties when we evaluate the risk of catastrophe.

With virtually all asset markets – stocks, bonds and property – at all time highs, investors are clearly judging the risk of failure to be nearer zero.

Personally I judge the risk of a collapse of markets and the economy to be between 95% and 99%.

So a risk range from 0% to 99% is quite a spread. An actuary would probably pitch it at 1 to 5 percent risk and sell catastrophe insurance on that basis.

Financial Insurance Dirt Cheap

With both investment markets and the insurance industry evaluating risk as virtually non-existent, that is the time when insurance is really underpriced or in simple terms dirt-cheap.

So what kind of insurance are we looking at here. The conventional investment market will look at hedging financial risk in all kinds of complex financial instruments in the form of derivatives.

What the so called “experts” don’t realize is that they hedge their investments with the same instruments that created the risk in the first place, such as paper gold. This would be a real financial tautology.

Or in other words: RUBBISH IN – RUBBISH OUT.

Financial tautologies are often the demise of investment markets, especially when derivatives are involved. The 2006-9 Great Financial Crisis was caused by a chain of interdependent derivatives that at the end of the day proved totally worthless.

Coming back to insurance there is no better time to buy it than when the market underestimates or doesn’t understand the risk.

It is obvious that it serves no purpose to buy the insurance in the same fake  instruments that in themselves represent the risk. So why buy paper gold?

Insurance That Withstands the Test of Time

Instead of buying insurance protection in the same form as the risk itself, the insurance must be an uncorrelated asset. It must also be an asset that has withstood the test of time and held its value and purchasing power throughout the ages.

physical gold is clearly the best combination of wealth preservation and insurance compared to any alternative and that by a massive margin.

At the beginning of the 2000s we decided to invest in physical gold in a substantial way for our own funds and the investors we advised. Since the 1999 bottom, gold was then stabilising and at the beginning of 2002 we considered that the 20 year correction was over and we bought gold at $300.

Back in 2002, we considered gold to be unloved and undervalued. Gold had gone from $35 in 1971 to $850 in 1980 and then corrected down to $250 in 1999.

At the time, central banks were selling gold, including the bank of England and the Swiss National Bank which both sold a major part of their holdings at the very bottom.

The Paper Gold Tail Wagging The Golden Dog

When the tail wags the dog, the dog is in a state of disequilibrium that is transitory.

This type of imbalance can only last for a limited period or the dog will not survive. There  are two options; either the dog will take control of his tail or shed it. The tail cannot survive without the dog’s body whilst the dog can cope very well without a tail.

Real, unencumbered physical gold does not need the paper gold market to function. The paper market hinders real price discovery. The gold paper market receives a respectability that it doesn’t deserve.

The gold paper market pretends to be backed by physical gold when in effect it is gold in sheep’s clothes.

It is like putting a Rolls Royce badge on an 1950s model Skoda and charging a Rolls price for it.

The Fake Paper Gold Market

So we are looking at paper gold market which is corrupt and fake. It exists for the benefit of central banks, the BIS (Bank of International Settlement) and bullion banks.

In the short term, the paper gold market certainly harms the only genuine gold market which is physical. But artificial markets or instruments have never survived in history. Just look at the fact that every fiat currency in history which has failed.

And so will paper gold. It is only a matter of time.

The sheer volume of paper gold trading reveals the desperate pressure this market is under.

Gold trading by LBMA banks and futures exchanges amounts to $180 billion per day.

This is a staggering 350X the daily gold mine production

So we ask ourselves how a dog can function properly with a tail that is 350X bigger than his body? The simple answer is that he can’t. I do realise that this is a slight oversimplification but nevertheless it does highlight how absurd the gold market is today.

The only reason why gold trading volumes are totally out of proportion to the actual amount of physical gold available is that 99% of the gross trading activity is in the paper market.

Is 50% of central Bank Physical Gold Lost Forever?

Central banks supposedly hold 34,000 tonnes or $2 trillion of physical gold. Since most central banks never do a full physical audit, verified by external auditors, no one knows how much gold they actually possess. 

It is likely that at least half or 17,000 tonnes have been leased to the market or covertly sold. The part which is leased is unlikely to ever come back in physical form. The gold is lent by a central bank to an LBMA bank which in its turn sells it to a buyer in say China or India. The buyer will never return the gold which he now owns outright.

The central bank has an IOU from the bullion bank. But that piece of paper is not worth more than the paper itself. There is more than 100X paper gold issued by the LBMA banks than physical gold held by them.

That kind of imbalance is a recipe for disaster. So when the market asks for physical delivery they will be staring at empty vaults and computers full of zeros representing worthless paper gold.

At some point in the next few years, that will take the paper gold market to zero and physical gold to unimaginable levels. It would also lead to FreeGold which I discussed in my previous article.

Buying Insurance Must Not be Finessed

I don’t know anybody who waits to buy financial insurance until the day before the fire.

Since gold is critical financial insurance, the purchase should not be timed until the risk occurs.

The whole purpose with physical gold is that you buy it and forget about it. You mustn’t try to finesse the buying to get a “good deal”. We have seen many examples of investors waiting for a certain level lower than the market and when the price doesn’t get down there, they miss the boat altogether.

Gold is Much More Than Insurance

In times of high risk in investment markets, gold, as I have explained above, is the best insurance available. But the beauty of gold currently is that it is not just the perfect insurance but also a superb investment.

When an asset is undervalued and unloved as I discuss above, it is the most opportune moment to acquire it.

The graph below is one of my favourites and should really be included in every single article I write in order to, in a simple picture, explain to investors and wealth preservationists that gold is as cheap today as it has been in the last 50 years.

The graph above shows gold in relation to US money supply.

As the graph shows, gold is today at $1,800 as cheap, in relation to US money supply, as it was in 1971 when the gold price was $35 or in 2000 when the price was $290, and this is with so much paper gold in the market.

So this graph tells us that the gold price has in no way reflected the irresponsible management of the US economy or the total failure of US monetary policies.

Gold is a truth teller. It reveals the total mismanagement of the economy as the gold price rises due to the continuous debasement of all currencies.

No Fiat Currency in History Has Survived- THE DOLLAR IS NEXT

Since no currency has survived in history in its original form, it won’t happen this time either. Fiat currencies have a perfect success record. At every point in history they have without fail succeeded to self-destruct into oblivion.

It couldn’t be clearer than that. If governments and central banks have destroyed every single fiat currency since time began how can anyone believe that it will be different this time?

There is no strong dollar and there is no strong euro. The currencies are all ephemeral blips in history that are destined to become extinct the day they are born.

History gives me total certainty and confirmation with this prediction.

Let’s look at the major currencies in this since the latest corrupt currency system was set up in 1913.

The graph below, shows the dollar, mark/euro, pound, yen, since the early 1900s.

So here we have the four biggest currencies for the last 100 years all showing the same pattern. Without exception they are all down 97-99%.

The big fall for the dollar and euro took place after 1971. They are down 98% and 96% respectively since Nixon decided to “temporarily” close the gold window.

The final few percent fall is not in doubt. It is only a question how long it takes.

As the graph above shows, gold (at the 100 line) is eternal money and constant purchasing power. Gold is therefore the perfect antidote to a chronically defective monetary system.

Next Target for Gold: $3,000

Wealth preservation investors should not worry about the price of gold just as they don’t worry about the value of any insurance policy.

Still, we all enjoy to sometimes measure gold in continuously debasing paper currencies.

Technically gold is now finishing a big Cup and Handle pattern which projects around $3,000 as the next target.

I Am Standing On a Soap Box

So why do I go on about currencies and gold in article after article. Critics could blame me for promoting our own activities. Few would know that we set up the best system for wealth preservation in the form of physical gold 20 years ago for our own funds and not as a business. The business only started a few years later as a result of demand.

The reason why I am passionate about informing the world of the destiny of their money and savings is that so few grasp how much they stand to lose in coming years.

It is obvious that investors feel confident after the biggest bull market in history in virtually all asset classes. Most investors are today “Masters of the Universe” (Bonfire of the Vanities) and therefore overconfident of the resilience of their bubble assets.

This arrogance is very dangerous and means that less than 0.5% of investors hold protection in the form of physical gold. And that is why I week after week stand on my soapbox to communicate the risks in the system that 99.5% of investors are neither aware of and nor protected against. The good thing is, as I show above, that gold on a relative basis is as cheap today as in 1971.

So today gold (not paper gold) is not just vital insurance and wealth preservation but also the investment opportunity of a lifetime.

 

END

OR LAWRIE WILLIAMS

LAWRIE WILLIAMS: Gold and silver

 

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

A good one!! Ned Naylor Leyland strongly believes that the big powers want gold to replace the dollar

(Sprott/Ned Naylor Leyland/GATA)

Basel 3 shows big powers want gold to replace dollar, Naylor-Leyland says

 

 

 Section: Daily Dispatches

 

9:21p ET Wednesday, July 21, 2021

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

British gold fund manager Ned Naylor-Leyland is the guest on Sprott Money’s “Ask the Expert” program this month, and interviewed by host Craig Hemke, Naylor-Leyland says the new “Basel 3” protocols for gold derivatives held by banks suggest that the G-20 powers and the Bank for International Settlements want gold to replace the U.S. dollar as the world’s “risk-free instrument.”

Central bank demands for repatriation of their gold from foreign depositories jumped when the “Basel 3” protocols were first devised, Naylor-Leyland says. So, he adds, the protocols eventually will have an affect on the gold price.

Hemke’s interview with Naylor-Leyland is 21 minutes long and can be heard at YouTube here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X3lkSdghBDI

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

 

END

The history of the famous Bolivian Potosi mine

(GATA)

Potosi, the silver mine that changed the world

 

 

 Section: Daily Dispatches

 

9:47p ET Wednesday, July 21, 2021

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Historian Lance Geiger, “The History Guy” at YouTube, today presents a fascinating account of the world’s first great silver mine, Potosi in Spanish-ruled Peru. 

Potosi silver, Geiger relates, created the world’s first international currency, funded and destroyed empires, and, of course, imposed virtual slavery on the nearby inhabitants, who had to work in the mine.

The video is headlined “Potosi, the Silver Mine that Changed the World,” is 14 minutes long, and can be viewed at YouTube here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5BebknA0PeU

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

OTHER PHYSICAL//COMMODITY STORIES
 
Coffee

Freak Cold Snap In Biggest Coffee Exporter Sparks Huge Price Surge 

Tyler Durden's Photo
BY TYLER DURDEN
THURSDAY, JUL 22, 2021 – 03:05 PM

On Tuesday, a wicked cold snap, with temperatures dropping below zero, delivered a massive blow to farmers across Brazil’s coffee belt, damaging trees and destroying next year’s crop, according to Reuters.

Temperatures in Brazil’s coffee-growing regions recorded -1.2 Celsius (29 Fahrenheit) on Tuesday in southern Minas Gerais, which was the coldest since 1994. 

“I’ve never seen something like that. We knew it would be cold, we were monitoring, but temperatures suddenly went several degrees down when it was already early morning,” said Mario Alvarenga, a coffee producer with two farms in Minas Gerais, Brazil’s largest producing state.

Futures for arabica beans in New York soared more than 7.5% Thursday. Since Tuesday’s frost, future prices are up more than 23.5%, hitting 6.5-year highs. 

The unexpected frost is compounding issues for farmers who have been inundated with massive droughts. Meanwhile, probabilities for a return of La Nina this fall/winter are increasing. 

“I will probably have to take out some 80,000 trees, they are burned all the way to the bottom,” said Airton Gonçalves, who farms 100 hectares (247.11 acres) of coffee in Patrocinio, in the Cerrado region of Minas Gerais.

“I was going to the farm yesterday, and a sensor in the truck started to alert me about ice on the road. I thought the system had gone crazy. But when I got to the farm, it was covered in ice, the roofs, the crops.”

Gonçalves estimates his production in 2022 will decline to approximately 1,500 bags from 5,500 bags. 

Ana Carolina Alves Gomes, a coffee analyst at Minas Gerais agriculture federation Faemg, said that frosts were also reported in the south of Minas Gerais in the Mogiana area in Sao Paulo.

“Only time will tell how much will be lost. We already had a small crop this year,” she said. 

Coffee broker Thiago Cazarini, who operates in Varginha, South Minas, said estimates so far suggest exporters and agronomists see a potential reduction of 1 to 2 million bags in next year’s harvest.  

“For a clearer view, proper time is needed. Next week it will be more accurate,” Cazarini said.

We’ve warned that cheap coffee is no more, and a global deficit is coming. 

Adding to the already extreme food inflation, Americans will likely be paying more at Starbucks in the coming months, if not next year, for their favorite expresso. So to say inflation is “transitory” is an understatement as it will linger through 2022

 

END

 

Gold trader bragged about ‘how easy’ it is to manipulate prices

 

 

 Section: Daily Dispatches

Indeed, ease of manipulation is precisely the purpose of the gold futures market:

https://www.gata.org/node/17081

* * *

By Bre Bradhman
Bloomberg News
via Yahoo News, Sunnyvale, California
Wednesday, July 21, 2021

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gold-trader-chat-bragged-easy-001619023.html

Chat logs introduced as evidence by prosecutors at the Chicago spoofing trial of two former precious-metals traders for Bank of America Corp.’s Merrill Lynch unit shows one of them, Edward Bases, bragging about how easy it is to manipulate prices.

On Jan. 28, 2009, when Bases was working at Deutsche Bank AG, he put out bids to buy 2,740 gold futures contracts valued around $244 million over the course of 4 1/2 minutes, according to Maria Garibotti, a vice president at Analysis Group who studied exchange and trading data for prosecutors. More than 98% were canceled without being filled, she said.

On the opposite side of the market, a fellow Deutsche Bank trader Bases coordinated with sold his 170 contracts worth $15,172,500 as the price rose, Garibotti told jurors on Wednesday.

“That does show u how easy it is to manipulate it sometimes,” Bases wrote minutes after the trading in a chat message sent to the other Deutsche Bank trader, Cedric Chanu, according to Garibotti. Chanu and another Deutsche Bank Trader, James Vorley, were sentenced last month to a year in prison each for their convictions in 2020 on spoofing charges at a separate trial.

“I f..k the mkt around a lot,” Bases said in another message.

Bases and fellow Merrill Lynch trader John Pacilio face federal fraud charges for allegedly spoofing the futures market from 2008 to 2014.

Another episode described by Garibotti involved trades by Bases and Pacilio on Aug. 9, 2010, when both were working at Merrill Lynch.

That day, Bases placed an iceberg order to buy 10 contracts of platinum, with six being filled at placement, she said. Less than 10 seconds after Bases placed that buy order, Pacilio placed an order to sell 205 contracts for $15,856,750, which was almost 90% of what was visible on the exchange order book, Garibotti said. The price went down, and the rest of Bases’ order was filled, she said. Less than a second later, Pacilio’s sell order was canceled, she said.

Garibotti said employees at Analysis Group put in about 3,000 hours studying data in this case over the course of several years, billing the government $1.2 million for its work.

The defense attorneys have not yet begun cross-examining Garibotti.

In opening arguments Tuesday, Bases’ defense attorney told the jury that once her client understood spoofing was illegal, he stopped doing it, and that nearly all the conduct the government identified was before the enactment of the Dodd-Frank Act, which specifically prohibited spoofing.

—–

 

Gold Trader’s Chat Bragged About ‘How Easy’ It Is to Manipulate Prices

 

(Bloomberg) — Chat logs introduced as evidence by prosecutors at the Chicago spoofing trial of two former precious-metals traders for Bank of America Corp.’s Merrill Lynch unit shows one of them, Edward Bases, bragging about how easy it is to manipulate prices.

On Jan. 28, 2009, when Bases was working at Deutsche Bank AG, he put out bids to buy 2,740 gold futures contracts valued around $244 million over the course of four-and-a-half minutes, according to Maria Garibotti, a vice president at Analysis Group who studied exchange and trading data for prosecutors. More than 98% were canceled without being filled, she said.

On the opposite side of the market, a fellow Deutsche Bank trader Bases coordinated with sold his 170 contracts worth $15,172,500 as the price rose, Garibotti told jurors on Wednesday.

“that does show u how easy it is to manipulate it sometimes,” Bases wrote minutes after the trading in a chat message sent to the other Deutsche Bank trader, Cedric Chanu, according to Garibotti. Chanu and another Deutsche Bank Trader, James Vorley, were sentenced last month to a year in prison each for their convictions in 2020 on spoofing charges at a separate trial.

“I f..k the mkt around a lot,” Bases said in another message.

Bases and fellow Merrill Lynch trader John Pacilio face federal fraud charges for allegedly spoofing the futures market from 2008 to 2014.

Another episode described by Garibotti involved trades by Bases and Pacilio on Aug. 9, 2010, when both were working at Merrill Lynch.

That day, Bases placed an iceberg order to buy 10 contracts of platinum, with six being filled at placement, she said. Less than 10 seconds after Bases placed that buy order, Pacilio placed an order to sell 205 contracts for $15,856,750, which was almost 90% of what was visible on the exchange order book, Garibotti said. The price went down, and the rest of Bases’ order was filled, she said. Less than a second later, Pacilio’s sell order was canceled, she said.

-END-

This is good for gold: ECB will be persistant with negative rates in order to fue inflation

(London’s Financial Tims//GATA)

ECB vows to persist with negative rates in bid to fuel inflation

 

 

 Section: Daily Dispatches

By Martin Arnold
Financial Times, London
Thursday, July 22, 2021

The European Central Bank will keep buying bonds and maintain its deeply negative interest rates in an attempt to shift the eurozone economy out of its persistent pattern of sluggish inflation, its policymakers decided today.

The ECB also said it was prepared to tolerate a moderate and transitory overshoot of its inflation target as it believes that a “persistent” policy is necessary when rates are close to the lowest point at which cuts are effective — as they are now.

The guidance came two weeks after the ECB agreed a new strategy that lifted its inflation target to 2 percent, dropped a promise to keep price rises below that level and accepted that they can even exceed it temporarily. It was the first change in strategy for almost two decades. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.ft.com/content/b329cbe7-1d93-41f5-8812-297f0e03de58END*

end

Your weekend reading material:

Alasdair Macleod…

Alasdair Macleod: 2020-22 vs. 1929-32

 

 

 Section: Daily Dispatches

By Alasdair Macleod
GoldMoney, Toronto
Thursday, July 22, 2021

Current levels of equity markets are not only divorced from their underlying economic and business realities but are repeating the madness of crowds that led to the Wall Street crash of 1929—1932. The obvious difference is in the money: gold-backed dollars then compared with unbacked fiat today.

We can now begin to see how markets and monetary events are likely to develop in the coming months and this article provides a rough sketch of them. Obviously, the financial asset bubble will be burst by rising interest rates, the consequence of rising prices for consumer essentials. Fiat currencies will then embark on a path towards worthlessness because the monetary authorities around the world will redouble their efforts to prevent interest rates rising, bond yields rising with them, and equity values from collapsing; all by sacrificing their currencies.

The ghost of Irving Fisher’s debt-deflation theory will soon be uppermost in central bankers’ minds, preventing them from following anything other than a radically inflationary course regardless of the consequences.

Current views that tapering must be initiated to manage the situation miss the point. More QE and even direct purchases of bonds and equities are what will happen, policies that will certainly fail.

Anyone seeking to survive these unfolding conditions will be well advised to put aside some sound money —  physical gold and silver. …

… For the remainder of the analysis:

https://www.goldmoney.com/research/goldmoney-insights/2020-2022-versus-1929-1932?gmrefcode=gata

* * *

Your early THURSDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results, important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs usa dollar/CLOSED DOWN AT 6.4674 

 

//OFFSHORE YUAN 6.694  /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 12.07 PTS OR 0.34% 

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 499.26 PTS OR 1.83 %

2. Nikkei closed 

 

3. Europe stocks  ALL GREEN 

 

USA dollar INDEX UP TO  92.78/Euro RISES TO 1.1795

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +.016/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 110.22/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

3c Nikkei now JUST ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 70,93 and Brent: 72.63

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE CLOSED UP-OFF SHORE: UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO -.39%/Italian 10 Yr bond yield DOWN to 0.68% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.26%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.07: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO : 0.68

3k Gold at $1796.50 silver at: 25.06   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 24/100 in roubles/dollar) 73.78

3m oil into the 70 dollar handle for WTI and 72 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 110.22 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9218 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 1.0853 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to 0.39%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 1.297% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 1.944%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 8.55..  VERY DEADLY

Another Day Of Gains As Futures Trade Within 1% Of All Time Highs

 
THURSDAY, JUL 22, 2021 – 07:41 AM

US futures, European bourses and Asian markets extended on recent sharp gains on Thursday, the 10Y yields rose above 1.30% after hitting 1.13% just two days earlier and oil held onto sharp gains as investors seemed to set aside virus jitters for now and looked ahead to the European Central Bank for reassurance that policy support will continue; the dollar was steady. Japanese markets were closed for a holiday. At 7:15 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were up 71 points, or 0.20%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 8 points, or 0.19%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 24.50 points, or 0.16%. Futures traded less than 1% from their record highs, completing a definitive V-shaped recovery from the recent slide.

The turnaround from the Monday selloff shows “corporations have been very resilient through all this,” David Mazza, Direxion head of product, said on Bloomberg Television. “Earnings estimates are quite remarkable, probably some of the best on record. Even through all this, we have central-bank liquidity remaining very abundant, economic growth being robust.”

Energy and mega-cap tech stocks gained ahead of a new batch of earnings reports, the latest initial claims data and the first ECB meeting to incorporate the bank’s new strategic review. Energy stocks Chevron Corp, Exxon Mobil, Schlumberger NV, Occidental Petroleum and Marathon Petroleum Corp climbed between 0.1% and 1%, tracking crude prices. Some other notable pre-market movers:

  • Didi Global (DIDI) drops 3% in premarket trading after people familiar with the matter said Chinese regulators are considering serious, perhaps unprecedented, penalties for for the ride-hailing giant after its controversial initial public offering last month.
  • Texas Instruments (TXN) drops 4.8% after third-quarter sales and profit forecasts left analysts disappointed, with Barclays saying the “flat outlook leaves little to live for this late in the cycle.”
  • AT&T (T) added 0.9% as the telecom operator beat analysts’ estimates for monthly phone bill paying subscriber additions in the second quarter, fueled by more Americans converting to 5G phones.
  • Dow (DOW) rose 1.3% after its second-quarter profit doubled from the first, as prices for its chemicals used in plastics and packaging rose on the back of strong consumer and industrial demand as well as lower inventories.
  • Chembio Diagnostics (CEMI) gains 9.9% and NeuroMetrix (NURO) surges 33% amid discussions on message boards at Reddit and StockTwits.

There was no obvious catalyst for the recent rebound in stocks, or the drawdown on Friday and Monday, though a study on Wednesday showed both Pfizer and AstraZeneca vaccines were effective against the Delta coronavirus variant. “Every now and then investors look for reasons to take some profits off and that’s what we saw,” said Jun Bei Liu, portfolio manager at Tribeca Investment Partners in Sydney. “The market suddenly became worried about the delta variant and how it might affect the path to recovery,” she said. “But what we have compared with 12 months ago is quite a few viable vaccines…eventually we will be coming out of this and we are much closer to the end than we were 12 months ago.”

In Europe, investors awaited the European Central Bank’s policy decision and guidance as the Stoxx 600 index turned positive for the week only three days after Monday’s selloff. Travel and leisure stocks led the advance, with 19 of the 20 industry sectors in the green. Unilever Plc was an exception, tumbling the most since Feb. 4 in London after the company lowered its guidance for profitability, citing cost inflation. Here are some of the biggest European movers today:

  • EQT shares gain as much as 16% in the stock’s steepest intraday advance since Jan. 26 after the Swedish investment firm reported better-than-expected numbers for the first six months of the year.
  • Aalberts climbs as much as 5.3% to a record high, after the company reported half-year results ahead of expectations.
  • Flutter rises as much as 4.3% in London after RBC upgraded to outperform, saying concerns on the stock are overdone.
  • Huhtamaki jumps as much as 5.6% in Helsinki after the Finnish food- packaging maker reported 2Q results that beat analysts’ profit and revenue estimates.
  • Publicis climbs as much as 4.6% with analysts positive on the advertising firm’s growth in the second quarter.
  • Temenos drops as much as 8.5%. Jefferies says the software firm’s 2Q revenue looks in line, but expectations on the buyside for beat-and-raise may mean the results fall slightly short.

Earlier in the session, the MSCI index of Asia-Pacific shares rose for a second day, climbing as much as 0.9%, led by Hong Kong, as investors became more confident about economic growth after U.S. companies reported solid corporate earnings overnight despite persistent concerns about burgeoning outbreaks in unvaccinated populations and as nerves persist around China’s regulatory crackdown on technology firms. Shares in heavily-indebted Chinese property developer Evergrande (3333.HK) rebounded about 11% in Hong Kong after it said it had resolved legal disputes with a lender.

Benchmarks in Hong Kong and Indonesia each added 1.8% as several sectors including materials and technology advanced in the region. “Strong U.S. earnings confirm the strength of global economic recovery and therefore demand for Asian exports, which is good for the region,” said Olivier d’Assier, head of applied research for Asia Pacific at Qontigo. Better-than-expected results for companies such as Verizon Communications Inc. and Coca-Cola Co. lifted sentiment and eased concerns over peak economic growth, while shifting investor focus away from the rapid spread of the delta variant that might dent the recovery. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields hovered close to 1.3%. Shares in Indonesia climbed after the central bank decided to hold its benchmark rate at 3.5%. The Jakarta Composite Index gained 1.8%, the biggest rise in three months. Japan’s stock market is closed Thursday and Friday for holidays.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 index rose 1.1% to close at 7,386.40, a fresh record high, led by gains in miners and banks. Australia’s iron ore shipments climbed to a record last month, cushioning against the impacts of nationwide lockdowns. Orocobre was among the biggest gainers after reporting 4Q sales results. Zip was the biggest laggard after posting 4Q revenue of A$129.9m. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index rose 0.1% to 12,720.84

Here are the latest coronavirus news:

  • Texas Tribune: 99.5% of the 8,787 people who died from Covid from 8th Feb to 14 July were unvaccinated (citing prelim numbers from Texas Dept of State Health Services)
  • China pushes back against WHO calls for another probe in to the virus’s origins, including whether leaked from a lab, saying no evidence and defies common sense
  • Thailand (13,655) and S Korea (1842) post record new cases
  • Queensland to close New South Wales border from 1am Friday
  • Biden urges more people to get vaccinated saying the pandemic is only among the unvaccinated
  • Texas reports 3,261 cases in past 24hrs, highest since 13 Apr, but no new fatalities in 4 of last 5 days

Elsewhere, the Labor Department’s report, due at 8:30 a.m. ET, is expected to show the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell to 350K (from 360K) for the week ended July 17, amid rampant worker shortages. Investors have been closely following the health of the jobs market on which monetary policy hinges, especially after a series of higher inflation reading recently sparked fears about a sooner-than expected paring of policy support as the economy reopens.

A shift in attention to corporate earnings and the so-called value stocks have helped Wall Street recoup most of its declines from earlier in the week that were triggered by concerns about the fast-spreading Delta variant of the coronavirus. Q2 earnings are expected to grow 75% for S&P 500 companies, according to Refinitiv IBES estimates, with 88% of the 73 reported companies in the benchmark index beating consensus expectations. Abbott Laboratories, Domino’s Pizza Inc, Biogen Inc, Snap Inc and Intel Corp are among the major companies reporting results later in the day.

Investors also have one eye on a brewing partisan showdown in Washington over the U.S. debt ceiling, as the U.S. Treasury is projected to exhaust its borrowing authority in October, which put upward pressure on short-end rates overnight.

With a mostly bare data calendar on Thursday the European Central Bank’s policy-setting decision, due at 745am ET, and the subsequent press conference from President Christine Lagarde are the main focus for markets (see preview here). Lagarde infused traders with a sense of anticipation after flagging an adjustment to the bank’s rates guidance to reflect a new and more flexible inflation-targeting strategy. read more. “To really enforce their credibility, the ECB could tie their rate path to an explicit calendar date – i.e. no rate hike until late 2024,” said Luke Suddards, a strategist at brokerage Pepperstone. “That would be a dovish surprise for FX markets and put pressure on euro crosses.”

In rates, the 10Y Treasury yield edged above 1.3% as rates markets idled in Asia, with trade thinned by Tokyo’s holiday, following a sell-off in Treasuries overnight. Losses were led by intermediates with 5- to 7-year yields cheaper by ~1bp on the day; 10-year around 1.30% lags bunds by ~1bp while gilts slightly underperform. Futures activity has been light with cash markets closed in Asia for Japanese holidays and resuming at 7am London time.

In FX, the dollar index sat at 92.812, off a three-month peak of 93.194 and the euro was steady just above recent lows at $1.1791. The Bloomberg dollar index edged lower with Treasuries as earnings optimism tempered concerns about the delta variant and its threat to economic growth. “The dollar has been trading on the front foot regardless of the risk sentiment swings in recent days,” Westpac analysts said in a note, supported by the view that high inflation could drive U.S. rate rises. A shift to a more structurally dovish European Central Bank should cement the dollar index at higher levels, the analysts said, with a test of the year’s highs likely this quarter. The risk-sensitive Norwegian krone and pound led G-10 gains while the Swiss franc underperformed

Bitcoin briefly rose above $32,000 after getting a boost from Elon Musk, who said his space exploration company SpaceX owns the digital token.

In commodities oil hung on to most of Wednesday’s sharp price rise, its biggest one-day gain in three months. Brent crude futures were last 0.4% softer at $71.94 a barrel, but had gained more than 4% on Wednesday. Gold was steady at $1,801 an ounce and cryptocurrencies were firm after bouncing from lows when Tesla boss Elon Musk said the carmaker would likely restart accepting bitcoin payments after due diligence on its energy use.

To the day ahead now, and the main highlight will likely be the aforementioned ECB meeting and President Lagarde’s subsequent press conference. Otherwise, data releases from the US include the weekly initial jobless claims, June data on existing home sales and the Conference Board’s leading index. And over in Europe, there’s the EC’s advance consumer confidence reading for the Euro Area in July. Finally, earnings releases include Twitter, Intel, AT&T, Danaher, Unilever, Blackstone and Biogen, whilst BoE Deputy Governor Broadbent will be speaking.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 4,357.50
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.7% to 457.11
  • MXAP up 0.9% to 202.70
  • MXAPJ up 1.3% to 680.01
  • Nikkei up 0.6% to 27,548.00
  • Topix up 0.8% to 1,904.41
  • Hang Seng Index up 1.8% to 27,723.84
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.3% to 3,574.73
  • Sensex up 1.1% to 52,783.51
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 1.1% to 7,386.41
  • Kospi up 1.1% to 3,250.21
  • Brent Futures up 0.6% to $72.64/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.5% to $1,794.06
  • U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 92.83
  • German 10Y yield rose 0.3 bps to -0.392%
  • Euro little changed at $1.1786

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • Chinese regulators are considering serious, perhaps unprecedented, penalties for Didi Global Inc. after its controversial initial public offering last month
  • For credit investors, today’s ECB meeting is all about whether policymakers hint at any changes that could spell an end to the cheapest funding costs on record
  • Bank of England Deputy Governor Ben Broadbent said policy makers may be right to overlook a surge in inflation now, arguing that many of the increases are likely to be temporary
  • Britain is set to be handed a final warning from the European Union to meet its commitments under the Northern Ireland Protocol as the two sides struggle to work out their post-Brexit relationship

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asia-Pac stocks traded higher following the extended rebound across global counterparts including the continued cyclical outperformance stateside where the mood was also helped by several blue-chip earnings. ASX 200 (+1.1%) was led higher by strength in the commodity-related sectors as energy spearheaded the advances after oil prices gained by around 4.5% on Wednesday and with mining names also lifted by quarterly production updates which propelled Orocobre and Iluka Resources to the top performers list. The latest data releases also provided some slight encouragement including stable NAB Quarterly Business Confidence which benefitted from an upward revision to the prior and the preliminary trade data showed that Exports and Imports rose 8% M/M. Hang Seng (+1.8%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.3%) were positive as reports that US Deputy Secretary of State Sherman is to visit China for talks between 25th-26th July, spurred some hopes for a potential de-escalation in tensions, although other commentary remained hawkish including from US Secretary of Defense Austin who vowed to counter ‘unfounded’ China claims in the South China Sea. Nonetheless, Hong Kong led the gains in the region as the broad strength permeated across various industries including property, energy, tech and financials, while Evergrande found some relief after resolving the dispute with Guangfa Bank, although the advances for the mainland were capped after the recent flooding catastrophe and with China’s trade-weighted currency rose to a fresh 5-year high. KOSPI (+1.1%) was also underpinned by the broad constructive mood in the region with some earnings releases helping divert attention away from another record daily increase in infections, and Japanese markets are closed for the rest of the week due to Marine Day and Sports Day holidays.

Top Asian News

  • KakaoBank to Raise $2.2 Billion as Korean IPO Boom Continues
  • As Singapore Frets Over the Elderly, Virus Rise Among Young
  • Iron Ore Futures Slump Amid Demand Fears, Improved Flows
  • Hyundai Has Biggest Profit in Seven Years, Warns About Chips

Major Euro bourses trade higher (Euro Stoxx 50 +1.1%) as the region adopted the positive performance seen across APAC. This come as earnings in the continent pick up in pace ahead of the ECB policy decision, which is expected to enforce a more dovish pursuit of its new inflation mandate. Meanwhile, the UK’s FTSE 100 (+0.3%) and Switzerland’s SMI (-0.2%) lag, with the former weighed on by a firmer Pound alongside the ill-effects of losses in both benchmarks’ heavyweight pharma sectors. US equity futures are flat with a positive bias, with the NQ (+0.2%) initially outperforming the ES (+0.2%), YM (+0.3%) and RTY (+0.2%) amid a more favourable yield environment, albeit that faded with the contracts now seeing modest broad-based upside. The yield picture is once again a cyclical. Travel & Leisure is again the winner, closely followed by Autos & Parts, Basic Resources and Tech. The other end of the spectrum consists of the defensives: Healthcare, Consumer Staples and Telecoms, albeit with some possible idiosyncratic influences. The former is weighed on by pharma-giant Roche (-1.1%) post-earnings, who in-spite of beating on main metrics, underwhelmed investors who expected upgraded guidance. Consumer Staples sees hefty losses in Unilever (-4.5%) as earnings were largely in-line with analyst expectations but the group expects FY margins to remain flat as a result of rising costs. Meanwhile, Telecoms have clambered off the lows seen at the cash open in the aftermath of Spain’s 5G auction, whereby Orange (+0.1%), Telefonica (+0.4%) and Vodafone (+1%) have together paid over EUR 1bln. In terms of other moves, NatWest (-1.5%) is pressured amid reports that the UK government is looking to offload NatWest shares, with the earliest sale to occur on August 12%. ABB (+1.9%) is bolstered by earnings beats alongside plans for its EV charging spin-off early next year.

Top European News

  • EQT Plans to Step Up Hiring as Assets Under Management Soar 95%
  • North Sea Green Hydrogen Pilot Gains Grant from Dutch Government
  • ABB Gains; Orders the Standout of Strong 2Q, JPMorgan Says
  • Euro Can Excite Markets Only on Downside Break: ECB Cheat Sheet

In FX, the ECB has been afforded top billing in terms of this week’s main events and potential market movers following the strategy review and shift to a new inflation target, and on this occasion the 12.45BST policy announcement may well take centre stage before the spotlight shifts to President Largarde for the post-meeting press conference and Q&A. Indeed, rate guidance will change by definition to reflect symmetry around 2% rather than the old ‘close to, but below’ remit, and the wording or phrasing could be pivotal from the perspective of perception and determining whether the GC retains a dovish bias or not, just as much as the tone of the text and responses to questions 45 minutes later. Note, a full preview is available via the Research Suite and will be re-posted on the Headline Feed in due course. In the run up to the ECB, the Euro remains relatively rangy and tactically, if not necessarily well positioned pending the outcome after almost guaranteed initial knee-jerk moves, with Eur/Usd hovering below 1.1800 where 1.3 bn option expiries start and end at 1.1810, Eur/Gbp pivoting 0.8600 and the 50 DMA that comes in at 0.8590 today, Eur/Jpy straddling 130.00 and Eur/Chf rotating around 1.0825.

  • GBP/AUD/DXY – Sterling seems to have weathered a set-back amidst fairly benign views on inflation from BoE’s Broadbent (see 9.30BST post on the Headline Feed for details) allied to a broad Buck bounce that pushed the index back over 92.800 between 92.868-704 parameters, as Cable consolidates recovery gains through 1.3700 and the 200 DMA, while the Aussie is also rebounding further and has breached half round number resistance against its US peer at 0.7350 with some traction coming via preliminary trade data overnight showing a wider surplus and acceleration in both exports and imports. However, hefty 1.5 bn option expiry interest between 0.7370-75 could cap Aud/Usd in the same vein as the psychological 1.0600 level in Aud/Nzd as attention turns to flash PMIs. Back to the DXY and Greenback in general, upcoming IJC tallies and existing home sales appear more influential than the national activity or leading indices as the increasingly buoyant risk backdrop detracts from a more supportive yield landscape (outright and curve profile).
  • JPY/CHF/CAD/NZD – The Yen is holding within 110.36-07 confines absent of many Japanese participants due to Marine Day and also braced for another market holiday before the weekend given Sports Day on Friday, so pointers and direction will largely be gleaned from elsewhere. Conversely, the Franc is closer to w-t-d peaks than lows having rebounded from 0.9232 to 0.9164, like the Loonie that has derived momentum from the improving market mood and pronounced revival in WTI crude to top Usd 71/brl compared to lows only a cent above Usd 65 on Tuesday. Usd/Cad is currently circa 1.2560 vs 1.2525 at one stage and 1.2800+ at the start of the week, while Nzd/Usd is meandering from 0.6971-47 following the turn in cross tides noted above that has undermined the Kiwi to an extent.
  • SCANDI/EM – More fuel to fire the Nok’s comeback from under 10.7000 against the Eur to 10.4000+ at one stage, as Brent nears Usd 73/brl for a Usd 5.5 or so surge from worst levels, and the Rub is also gleaning some traction. Elsewhere, the Cnh and Cny remain firmer following confirmation that the meeting between Chinese and US Deputy Secretaries of States is back on and the Zar is on the front foot into the SARB.

In commodities, WTI and Brent front month futures are firmer on the day as the complex experiences tailwinds from another risk-on day. Furthermore, the supply/demand balance remains in favour of a deficit over the second half the year. Analysts at Morgan Stanley reaffirmed their view that the oil market will be in a deeper deficit in H2 vs H1 2021. The bank maintained its forecast for Brent to trade in the mid-to-high 70s for the remainder of the year. Meanwhile, Barclays raised its 2021 oil price forecast by USD 3-5/bbl due to expectations of a faster-than-forecast normalisation in OECD inventories. The British bank does warn that prices could rise to USD 100/bbl over the coming months if OPEC+ is slow to meet demand. Looking ahead, MS sees OPEC maintaining a slight deficit in 2022. Note, other desks expect demand in H1 2022 to be somewhat sluggish before seeing a pick-up in H2. Barclays downgraded its 2022 oil price forecasts by USD 3/bbl. This sentiment also been echoed by sources via Energy Intel earlier this week who “see the potential for a significant dip in oil demand in the first half of next year…. it is likely they [OPEC+] will take a pause [from production hikes] from monthly increases this December.” Over to the US, Barclays sees US oil demand growing by 1.6mln BPD YY this year vs 1.4mln BPD earlier, and forecast the Brent-WTI spread to average USD 2/bbl in H2 2021, with risks to the downside on a potentially continued inventory draw-down at the Cushing hub. WTI and Brent Sept reside north of USD 70.50/bbl and USD 72.50/bbl respectively from USD 69.88/bbl and USD 71.74/bbl at worst, with the benchmarks now closer to the round numbers on the upside. Elsewhere, spot gold and silver are swayed by the Buck. Spot gold briefly dipped below its 100DMA (USD 1,795/oz) to a base at USD 1,791/oz, whilst the 21DMA also resides nearby at USD 1,796.80/oz. LME copper is on a firmer footing with traders citing lower-than-expect sales plans by China, although the constructive risk tone is also providing the red metal with tailwinds. Finally, Dalian iron ore fell some 5% as participants point to a double whammy of factors with higher imports and lower demand from China.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: July Initial Jobless Claims, est. 350,000, prior 360,000; Continuing Claims, est. 3.1m, prior 3.24m
  • 8:30am: June Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index, est. 0.30, prior 0.29
  • 10am: June Existing Home Sales MoM, est. 1.7%, prior -0.9%
  • 10am: June Leading Index, est. 0.8%, prior 1.3%;
  • 11am: July Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity, est. 25, prior 27

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Yesterday we launched our latest monthly survey, link here, which remains open until late morning tomorrow. We ask a number of questions about covid restrictions to judge how you feel about how life is progressing and will progress over the coming months. We also ask whether the UK has done the right or wrong thing by lifting all legal covid restrictions. In addition, we ask all the normal regular and market directional questions. All responses gratefully received. It should only take 3-4 minutes to complete and is totally anonymous.

The hot week continues here in the U.K.. This has made sleeping tough. Adding to my sleeping woes, last night my wife got woken up by our downstairs hallway light coming on at 2am and given it was on a sensor we went downstairs to investigate. Such a scare seems to happen a couple of times a year in our house. I had a golf club in our bedroom so I took that as a precaution. Just in case the intruder fancied a round. No one was there but when looking at the sensor we found two Daddy Long-Legs walking across it. I felt a bit silly wielding a golf club. It took a while to get back to sleep after that and then the wake-up alarm went off!! So I’m shattered.

There were few alarms in markets yesterday and the main story was the continued recovery after Monday’s rout, as decent corporate earnings releases outweighed investor concern about the rise in Covid casesand the more-infectious delta variant. In fact by the close of trade, it was almost as though the slump at the start of the week had never happened. The S&P 500 (+0.82%) is back into positive territory for the week and less than 1% from record highs thanks to further advances for cyclical industries. And Treasuries also continued their wild ride, moving 11bps off their London morning lows at one point and having now recovered by c.16.3bps since their intraday lows on Tuesday.

To run through the moves in more detail, equity indices rallied on both sides of the Atlantic, particularly in Europe as the STOXX 600 (+1.65%) recorded its strongest performance in over 2 months, and Spain’s IBEX 35 (+2.50%) had its best day since January. As mentioned, the rally was supported by positive corporate earnings releases, including from Johnson & Johnson, Coca-Cola and Verizon, although Netflix’s (-3.30%) relatively weak earnings the previous day meant that the FANG+ index of megacap tech stocks had a relatively subdued +0.30% gain – not helped by rising yields. On the other hand, small-cap stocks surged, with the Russell 2000 up +1.64%, which means that it’s performance over the last 2 sessions (+4.85%) is the strongest 2-day gain since we found out the results of the Georgia senate election back in January that paved the way for more fiscal stimulus.

Speaking of stimulus, Senate Republicans yesterday blocked the immediate debate on the infrastructure bill. Negotiators from both parties are continuing to work on the deal and expect the vote to pass early next week. In fact, Senate Majority Leader Schumer is reported to have received a note from 11 GOP members that they will vote to progress the legislation on Monday if a deal on spending can be reached. The legislation has stalled in recent weeks as the Senators could not agree on how to pay for the $579bn of new spending over the next 8 years.

Staying with politics, multiple outlets yesterday reported that top White House advisers broadly support giving Fed Chair Jerome Powell another term. However, no formal decision is expected on the matter until September. Chair Powell and Vice Chair Quarles’s terms currently expire in January. Former Fed Chair and current Treasury Secretary Yellen has yet to fully weigh in on the topic, telling CNBC last week she would be discussing it with President Biden soon. How the Fed maneuvers through the taper discussion into year-end may also have role to play in this as well.

The risk-on move and subsiding worries about Covid (at least for the time being) meant that sovereign bond yields rose across the board yesterday, with those on 10yr Treasuries up +6.7bps to 1.288% having been at 1.19% around London breakfast time. Both higher inflation breakevens (+3.1bps) and real rates (+3.5bps) contributed to the move, whilst the 2s10s curve steepened +6.4bps in its biggest daily move higher since March. It was a similar pattern in Europe too, where yields on 10yr bunds (+1.5bps), OATs (+1.1bps) and BTPs (+0.2bps) all moved higher, with the 2s10s curve steepening in all 3.

Overnight, Asian markets have taken Wall Street’s lead with the Hang Seng (+1.77%), Shanghai Comp (+0.33%) and Kospi (+1.12%) all up. Japanese markets are closed for a holiday. Futures on the S&P 500 have edged up +0.06% and those on the Stoxx 50 are up +0.40%. US treasuries haven’t traded this morning with it being a holiday in Japan. Elsewhere, Texas Instruments’ stock fell -4.6% in after hours trading as the company gave a revenue forecast that missed expectations raising doubts that a jump in chip demand caused by the pandemic will not be sustained.

In other overnight news, US President Joe Biden said at a CNN town hall that the inflation is likely to be transitory while adding that restaurants and other businesses in the hospitality and tourism sector may remain “in a bind for a while” due to hiring challenges as workers in the sectors are seeking better wages and working conditions. He has said that the businesses facing hiring challenges should offer higher pay in response, calling rising wages “a feature” of his economic plans.

Looking ahead now, one of the main highlights today will be the latest ECB decision at 12:45 London time and President Lagarde’s subsequent press conference at 13:30. This meeting has assumed an unexpected importance following the release of their Strategy Review earlier this month, which saw the inflation target changed to a symmetric 2%, along with a commitment to forceful or persistent policy easing when the effective lower bound is nearby, as at the moment. And as a result of this, our European economists write in their preview (link here), that they’re expecting some changes to the ECB’s forward guidance, with the wording needing to be updated to capture that 2% target and the commitment to persistence around the lower bound. They’re also expecting forward guidance to continue to refer to underlying inflation needing to be consistently on target. Generally speaking however, the ECB only conducts a deep dive into their policy stance once per quarter when the new staff forecasts are available, which would be at the September meeting, so our economists’ baseline is that it won’t be until then that they confirm that PEPP net purchases won’t continue beyond March 2022.

In terms of the latest on the pandemic, cases are unfortunately continuing to rise at the global level, as well as in every G7 economy except Canada. With increasing numbers being vaccinated throughout the developed world, this clearly isn’t the trajectory that many governments hoped to see by this point. However, as we looked at in my chart of the day yesterday (link here), the UK’s ONS now estimate that 92% of the adult population in England had antibodies in the week ending July 4. So an interesting one to follow as if a country with 92% of adults with antibodies (and rising since this study) continued to struggle then we could be in for a longer winter. On the other hand, if cases plateau in August and hospitals aren’t overwhelmed, the developed world may move on quicker than the delta-focused market currently expects. In fact, we got a slither of good news yesterday in that the number of daily cases reported was at 44,104, which is just +4% higher than the number on the previous Wednesday, and the smallest week-on-week growth number for a single day we’ve seen since May 25. Has the football effect started to wane? And might that offset some of the likely impact of this week’s reopening.

Back to Europe and there were some fresh Brexit headlines yesterday as the UK government said that it wanted to make changes to the Northern Ireland Protocol, which is a part of the Brexit deal put in place to prevent a hard border on the island of Ireland after the UK left the EU. This meant that goods wouldn’t see customs checks when passing between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, but instead meant that goods coming into Northern Ireland from the rest of the UK could instead be checked when they reached Northern Ireland, meaning that there was effectively an economic border within the UK. The two sides have had a number of disputes over the Protocol already, including a notable row last year over whether the UK’s proposed Internal Market Bill would break international law, although an agreement between the two sides was subsequently reached. This time around, the UK government have said that they believed there were grounds to trigger Article 16 that would suspend parts of the Brexit deal, but that they wouldn’t do so for now and instead “seek a consensual approach with the EU”. In response, the EU Commission Vice President Maroš Šefčovič said that they were “ready to continue to seek create solutions, within the framework of the Protocol”, but that they would “not agree to a renegotiation of the Protocol”.

To the day ahead now, and the main highlight will likely be the aforementioned ECB meeting and President Lagarde’s subsequent press conference. Otherwise, data releases from the US include the weekly initial jobless claims, June data on existing home sales and the Conference Board’s leading index. And over in Europe, there’s the EC’s advance consumer confidence reading for the Euro Area in July. Finally, earnings releases include Twitter, Intel, AT&T, Danaher, Unilever, Blackstone and Biogen, whilst BoE Deputy Governor Broadbent will be speaking.

end 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)THURSDAY MORNING/WEDNESDAY  NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 12.07  PTS OR 0.34%   //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 499.26 PTS OR 1.83%      /The Nikkei closed   //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 1.03%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP TO 6.4674  /Oil UP TO 68.15 dollars per barrel for WTI and 70.45 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN  /ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED  UP AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.4674. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.4691/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%/

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

/SOUTH KOREA

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

JAPAN/CORONAVIRUS

 

end

Japan Olympics/USA

 

3 C CHINA

 
 

China

Huge Evergrande has a liquidity problem and this can become quite systemic if they fail

(zerohedge)

Evergrande’s Liquidity Crisis Becomes Ever Grander

 
WEDNESDAY, JUL 21, 2021 – 06:20 PM

Evergrande’s existential challenges are becoming ever grander by the day.

While we have long profiled the growing troubles facing China’s largest and the world’s most indebted property developer, which at the end of 2020 boasted more than $300 billion in total liabilities and which has tried to quell mounting concerns over its financial health since May –  the melting ice cube that is Evergrande (which just one year ago vowed it would magically pivot into electric cars and would become China’s “Largest, Most Powerful” EV maker in a few years) had a close encounter with a blowtorch earlier this week when as we noted, the company’s shares crashed below liquidation level (i.e., the value of its standalone assets), trading at just 62% of book value following Monday’s plunge, the lowest ever value.

Meanwhile, its Hong Kong-traded shares which trade under the (not so) lucky ticker 3333.HK, have lost more than half their value from YTD highs, The wide deviation from its market value suggests shareholders are pricing in a significant decline in the assets’ earnings power. In terms of dollar amounts, its shares have lost $15 billion in value since this year’s January high.

As we noted a few days ago, the collapse in the valuation of the shares is a problem for a heavily indebted company with narrowing options for raising funds. It’s not just its own shares: subsidiary Evergrande Property Services has lost about $17 billion in value since its February high, while Evergrande New Energy Vehicle is down more than $60 billion in the period. Evergrande controls more than 60% of both firms. The value of Hengten Networks – a Hong Kong-listed internet services provider in which Evergrande has a 38% stake – has dropped about $15 billion.

Some of its affiliates missed payments earlier this year, and Caixin said authorities are probing Evergrande founder Hui Ka Yan’s relationship with Shengjing Bank. Evergrande holds a 36% stake in the bank, and Caixin said the bank lent up to $20 billion to Evergrande via direct and indirect channels.

The reason why the company has been hammered is simple: as a result of Beijing’s strict deleveraging demands targeting the housing developer sector (hoping to prevent a housing bubble), Evergrande’s cash has been shrinking fast, and it’s getting worse by the day as the company has entered a classical liquidity run (amid ongoing confusion whether Beijing will bail out the company in a worst case scenario).

After the shares plunged 16% on Monday a Chinese court froze a $20 million bank deposit, a city in Hunan province halted sales at two of the company’s residential projects, alleging the developer didn’t properly handle funds. The suspension will last until Oct. 13 and Evergrande can’t use funds currently deposited in supervised bank accounts, according to a statement. 

To raise the funds, Evergrande has resorted to heavy discounts on its newly built properties to boost sales. In addition, between March and December 2020, the company raised almost $11.5 billion by selling its own equity as well as stakes in its property services, electric vehicle and other units. In March, Evergrande raised $2.1 billion from the sale of a 10% stake in its online home and car sales unit ahead of a planned listing. Last month, the company agreed to sell holdings worth $570 million in its internet unit HengTen Networks and $386 million in property unit China Calxon Group.

Things went from bad to worse on Wednesday, when four of Hong Kong’s top banks – HSBC Holdings Plc, Bank of China’s Hong Kong unit, Standard Chartered and Bank of East Asia – stopped providing mortgages to buyers of China Evergrande Group’s unfinished residential properties in Hong Kong, the latest sign of dwindling confidence in the developer’s financial strength.

The mortgage halt “could be a fresh sign banks are protecting themselves as they’re increasingly worried about Evergrande,” Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Daniel Fan and William Hau wrote in a note on Wednesday. The development may push Evergrande toward more “radical action,” such as selling a stake in itself to a state-owned Chinese company or pursuing more wide-ranging asset sales, the analysts wrote.

Evergrande, in a statement, glossed over the dismal development, saying that projects in Hong Kong are progressing as “originally planned.”

“There are still other banks maintaining a positive attitude towards mortgages on uncompleted properties, so the impact is believed to be relatively mild,” the company said, adding that it would consider letting buyers delay transactions by 60 days if they are impacted.

The report sparked fresh worries over the company’s ability to pull off a plan to cut debt by half before the end of 2022.  Under its turnaround plan dubbed “high growth, scale control and debt reduction,” Evergrande cut total borrowings to 716.5 billion yuan ($110 billion) by the end of last year from a peak of 875 billion yuan in March 2020, according to the developer’s annual report. It targets a further cut of 150 billion yuan this year.

As Bloomberg notes, the unusual move by the four Hong Kong mortgage lenders to act in unison underscores how dramatically perceptions of Evergrande have deteriorated in recent weeks. And it’s not just the company’s stock that is getting hammered: the company’s 2025 dollar note sank by about 6 cents on Wednesday to 49 cents on the dollar, an all time low, and suggesting investors are bracing for a potential default absent a Beijing bailout of course.

An uncontrolled default by Evergrande – one where Beijing does not step in – would likely catastrophic repercussions for China’s financial system, eroding confidence in other highly leveraged property companies, shadow lenders and potentially even some banks, which is why Beijing will never allow it. Still, the status quo is unlikely to persist  – officials from China’s top financial regulator told Evergrande founder Hui Ka Yan at the end of June that he should solve his company’s debt problems as quickly as possible, emphasizing the need to avoid major economic shocks.

END

CHINA

Now China is preparing unprecedented sanctions against its own domiciled DIDI  (China’s UBER) and this may include delisting

(zerohedge)

Beijing Preparing “Unprecedented” Sanctions For Didi, Including Possible De-Listing

 
THURSDAY, JUL 22, 2021 – 06:32 AM

Didi shares are taking it on the chin once again in premarket trading Thursday following reports that Chinese regulators are preparing to hammer the ride-hailing giant with a massive fine, or some other “unprecedented” punishment, such as de-listing (though it’s unclear how the company would reverse the IPO process: would it return the money it raised to American shareholders?)

Bloomberg reports that discussions between a bevy of regulators led by the Cyberspace Administration of China, the new archnemesis of China’s tech firms, are in a preliminary phase. However, it’s extremely likely that the sanctions imposed on Didi will be “harsher” than the $2.8 billion fine imposed on Alibaba by Beijing.

Other punishments might involve a “suspension of operations”, which could threaten Didi’s dominance of the Chinese ride sharing market, a major selling point behind its IPO.

“It’s hard to guess what the penalty will be, but I’m sure it will be substantial,” said Minxin Pei, a professor of government at Claremont McKenna College in California.

Though Chinese regulators refused to comment, BBG noted that officials from the CAC, the Ministry of Public Security, the Ministry of State Security, the Ministry of Natural Resources, along with tax, transport and antitrust regulators, began an investigation on-site at Didi’s offices, something that had been reported beforehand.

For those who haven’t been following the drama, Didi shares briefly popped, then dropped, after the IPO. But the real losses came when two days later, Beijing rug-pulled the company by launching an investigation into the firm’s handling of ‘data privacy’ issues, a major national security issue in China. The firm’s apps have been barred from China’s app stores pending an opaque security review process.

Since then, at least a dozen Chinese firms, including TikTok-owner ByteDance, have abandoned plans to list in the US. Indeed, many pundits on Wall Street now believe it will be a long time before another Chinese firm lists in New York. Who knows? Didi might be the last major Chinese IPO, as Beijing demands that domestic firms list domestically, or in Hong Kong.

CHINA/HENAN PROVINCE/ZHENGZHOU

Flooding continues in Zhengzhou. Now new storms are on the horizon as China evacuates tens of thousands

(zerohedge)

China Evacuates Tens Of Thousands As Historic Rainstorms Spread North

 
THURSDAY, JUL 22, 2021 – 08:25 AM

In the wake of the unprecedented rainstorms across central China, tens of thousands of people have been evacuated on Thursday as officials raised the death toll to 33 for the Henan province, according to Reuters

Entire blocks of Zhengzhou, the capital of Henan province, are still submerged after “once in 5,000 years” rainstorms from Sunday to Tuesday devastated the metro area and other surrounding areas. Zhengzhou received eight months of rain within 24 hours earlier this week which triggered flash floods. 

State broadcaster CCTV said Thursday the death toll stands at 33, with eight people missing across Henan. So far, 376,000 people have been evacuated in the province. The economic cost is estimated around Rmb1.2bn ($186m), but that figure is expected to rise. 

Storm alerts on Thursday were declared in four cities just north of Henan – Xinxiang, Anyang, Hebi, and Jiaozuo. 

More than 73,000 people were being evacuated from the city of Anyang, on Henan’s border with Hebei province. The city has received 24 inches of rain since Monday. 

Xinxiang, a small city north of Zhengzhou, recorded 32 inches of rainfall between Tuesday and Thursday, breaking local meteorological records. This caused medium-sized reservoirs to overflow, affecting nearby towns.

As of Wednesday night, 470,000 people and over 55,000 hectares have been affected by torrential historic rains. The government has deployed 76,000 search and rescuers. 

Floodwaters in some areas retreated Thursday, and the devastation is only now be recognized. Vehicles and building structures have been submerged, and the economic damage is likely to rise. 

Three dams also collapsed, two in China’s northwestern region of Inner Mongolia and one near Zhengzhou

Here’s additional coverage on the historic rainstorms: 

Like much of China, Henan province is filled with complex rivers, dams, and reservoirs, many constructed decades ago to manage floodwaters. Officials in the province are increasing safety checks at dams. 

Another batch of rainstorms could be headed to Henan early next week as Typhoon In-Fa hones in on China’s southeastern coastline this weekend. 

end
 
CHINA/USA/
 
Doorknob Wendy Sherman to visit China as they discuss areas of serious concern. We are so lucky to have her on our negotiating team.
(zerohedge)

State Department’s #2 To Visit China, Will Discuss “Areas Of Serious Concern About PRC Actions”

 
WEDNESDAY, JUL 21, 2021 – 11:00 PM

The US State Department’s #2, deputy secretary of state Wendy Sherman, will meet Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Tianjin on July 25-26, after her trip to Mongolia. In a short statement on Wednesday, the US State Department said the discussions were part of “ongoing US efforts to hold candid exchanges with PRC officials to advance US interests and values and to responsibly manage the relationship”.

US deputy secretary of state Wendy Sherman (centre) will visit China on her trip to Asia. Photo: AP

“The deputy secretary will discuss areas where we have serious concerns about PRC actions, as well as areas where our interests align,” it said, referring to the People’s Republic of China.

In an earlier statement, Washington said Sherman would go to Japan, South Korea and Mongolia, raising concerns that she would not make a stop in China. Analysts wondered if Sherman’s original schedule suggested lingering tensions between the two sides, following the catastrophic summit in Alaska in March.

On Tuesday, the State Department said a trip to China by Sherman remained possible during her current tour of Asia if officials determined that a meeting between Sherman and her Chinese counterparts would be productive.

“We’ve been clear that when it comes to the [People’s Republic of China], we will engage when it’s in our interests to do so, and we do remain interested in doing so in a practical, substantive and direct manner. That certainly remains the case,” department spokesman Ned Price said.

According to SCMP sources, China was planning for Xie Feng, a foreign vice-minister in charge of US affairs, to meet Sherman. Xie was the foreign ministry commissioner in Hong Kong and has also been a foreign ministry “point person” on Xinjiang – two key issues troubling China-US relations. Wang would also receive Sherman but Washington was hoping she could have greater access to President Xi Jinping’s inner circle.

Commenting on the upcoming meeting, Newsquawk notes that a scheduled meeting implies that sides are working towards de-escalating tensions, with some suggesting that such meetings could augur well for a future meeting between President Biden and President Xi. It also comes after the FT reported last week that China had denied the request for US Deputy Secretary of State Sherman to meet with her Chinese counterpart during a proposed visit to the country this week.

The meeting is expected to serve as a precursor for a meeting between Secretary of State Blinken and China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi, the source added. The meeting is reportedly to “touch base and for both sides to get a sense of where the relationship is going” and also comes as tensions remain heightened on several fronts.

The US ramped up its rhetoric on the Xinjiang issue last week when it warned American companies with interests in the area risks breaking US law. Furthermore, the military landscape remains heated. Earlier this week, China said it “drove away” a US warship that trespassed Chinese territory in the South China Sea.

Further, China warned the US of “serious consequences” after the US Air Force delivered “diplomatic mail” to the de facto US embassy in Taipei, with Beijing claiming that the US trespassed its airspace.

The SCMP also notes that over the past week, US President Joe Biden and his administration have taken a number of measures that have angered Chinese officials, including a declaration on Monday, together with Britain and the European Union, that Beijing was behind this year’s cyberespionage attack on a Microsoft Exchange email server, This followed the sanctioning of seven Chinese officials which Washington said were responsible for undermining the autonomy of Hong Kong. Beijing denounced the sanctions and threatened to take strong retaliation.

Meanwhile, the trade deal will likely not be revisited in a meaningful way next week as the trade representatives from both sides are not meeting, as far as the reports go.

Thus, the meeting will be observed with a geopolitical lens, and the tone between the nations will be eyed. SCMP also suggested that this meeting could eventually pave the way for a summit between the two presidents – some have raised the possibility of a Biden-Xi meeting at the October G20 summit in Rome. A joint press conference or statement will be viewed as constructive.

END
 
CHINA/WUHAN LEAK/CORONAVIRUS ORIGIN
China again refuses to co-operate with a 2nd WHO probe into the origins of the virus
(zerohedge)

China Refuses To Cooperate With 2nd WHO Probe Into COVID’s Origins

 
THURSDAY, JUL 22, 2021 – 09:45 AM

Beijing has decided not to cooperate in a second WHO-sponsored investigation into the origins of COVID-19, thwarting the NGO’s plans to carry out a second, more credible, investigation.

During a Thursday press conference, Zeng Yixin, deputy head of China’s National Health Commission, said Beijing wouldn’t cooperate with another probe. However, the refusal to cooperate likely won’t help China’s cause in the West, as it tries to convince the Americans and Europeans that COVID wasn’t the result of a careless lab leak.

Zeng says he is “surprised” to see research into the lab leak theory, which was initially dismissed by the WHO as highly unlikely, included as a reason for a second hoped-for visit by a WHO team to Wuhan.

“In some aspects, the WHO’s plan for the next phase of investigation of the coronavirus origin doesn’t respect common sense, and it’s against science. It’s impossible for us to accept such a plan,” he said.

Liang Wannian, a senior scientist and the representative for the Chinese side of the WHO’s joint investigation, said during the briefing that, instead of returning to China, the team of experts should prioritize the “very likely” possibility that coronavirus originated in animals, and was later transferred to humans.

He also cited confusing research claiming traces of COVID-19 had been found in wastewater outside China around the same time that the disease was first detected in Wuhan. With this in mind, Liang suggested that investigators expand their research to locations outside China.

Chinese officials also used the press conference to reiterate Beijing’s insistance that the Wuhan Institute of Virology had no links to the outbreak. Yuan Zhiming, director of China’s National Biosafety Laboratory and professor at the Wuhan lab, stressed that, before Dec. 30, 2019, he and his colleagues had never studied the virus.

After a team of WHO scientists led by Dr. Peter Daszak, whose was later exposed for his conflict of interest regarding COVID-19’s origins given his involvement in a scheme by the NIH to funnel money to the WIV to circumvent US laws prohibiting ‘gain of function’ research.

The team spent around four weeks in China early this year, and the experts concluded in their initial report – which the WHO eventually rejected – that the virus likely originated in an animal before spreading to humans in December 2019. However, the, WHO has promised another probe since the initial probe’s data was deemed unreliable. President Biden has also ordered American intelligence to conduct their own assessment and figure out exactly what is going on.

The theory that COVID likely leaked from a laboratory possibly at the Wuhan Institute of Virology was first rejected by the American press as a “conspiracy theory”. US media outlets initially rejected the theory as implausible and even dangerous. Zero Hedge was even banned from twitter for months after daring to suggest that the leaked virus might have been intended to be a ‘bioweapon’. In recent months, the theory has gone mainstream, as even Democrats now believe the virus leaked from the lab.

Now, the question remains: what, if anything, will the US government do about it?

end

House Democrats Block COVID Origins Declassification Bill

 
THURSDAY, JUL 22, 2021 – 12:29 PM

House Democrats on Tuesday blocked a GOP bill which would require the Director of National Intelligence to declassify information related to the US government’s investigations into the Wuhan coronavirus pandemic – and in particular, what role the Wuhan Institute of Virology may have played in the outbreak.

The bill failed in the House by a vote of 216 – 207.

The COVID-19 Origin Act was introduced in the Senate by Josh Hawley (R-MO) and Mike Braun (R-IN), and was passed unanimously in May, according to Townhall. Then, it was brought to the House floor by Rep. Michael Burgess (R-TX) along with Reps. Brad Wenstrup (R-OH) and Darin LaHood (R-IL).

“The best disinfectant is sunlight and that’s what we can provide today,” said Wenstrup. “The bill first establishes that we must identify the precise origins of COVID-19 because it is critical for preventing a similar pandemic in the future.”

I cannot stress enough that this bill is not controversial by any means,” he continued. “In fact, it passed the Senate in May with unanimous consent — not one senator objected. Not Senators Ted Cruz or Rand Paul, not Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren. If those four members can get on board with this bill, should not we be able to do the same?”

Rep. LaHood further explained the legislation’s purpose, saying it “would require the Biden administration Director of National Intelligence to declassify intelligence information related to any potential links between the Wuhan Institute of Virology — also known as the Wuhan lab — and the origins of COVID-19 in order to better prepare and avoid future pandemics.”

The bottom line is Americans deserve a full accounting of the origins of the COVID-19 pandemic,” he added. –Townhall

In April, Hawley noted that “for over a year, anyone asking questions about the Wuhan Institute if Virology has been branded as a conspiracy theorist,” adding “the world needs to know if this pandemic was the product of negligence at the Wuhan lab but the [Chinese Communist Party] has done everything it can to block a credible investigation. That’s why the Biden administration must declassify what it knows about the Wuhan lab and Beijing’s attempts to cover up the origin of the pandemic.”

As The Federalist notes, “House Democrats’ vote against transparency comes just days after the World Health Organization urged China to cooperate with their second inquiry into the virus’s origins, citing previous difficulty working with the communist regime when China refused to share raw patient data with the WHO during the first round of investigations.

end

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

/EUROPE/ECB

Policy unchanged……but a little less dovish than expected…

(zerohedge)

ECB Keeps Policy Unchanged, Revises Forward Guidance But Is Less Dovish Than Expected

 
THURSDAY, JUL 22, 2021 – 07:59 AM

As expected, the ECB has left its rates and key policy metrics (QE) unchanged, while vowing to maintain a persistently accommodative monetary policy stance to meet its inflation target. No surprises there. Other unsurprising announcements:

  • ECB Leaves Main Refinancing Rate Unchanged at 0%
  • ECB to Reinvest Maturing PEPP Bonds at Least Through End-2023
  • PEPP to Run Significantly Faster Than at Start of Year
  • Committed to Persistently Accommodative Monetary Policy

Where there was a surprise, was in the ECB’s new language discussing the forward guidance emerging from its new strategic review and inflation policy, where the bank said that “in support of its symmetric two per cent inflation target and in line with its monetary policy strategy, the Governing Council expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at their present or lower levels until it sees inflation reaching two per cent well ahead of the end of its projection horizon and durably for the rest of the projection horizon, and it judges that realised progress in underlying inflation is sufficiently advanced to be consistent with inflation stabilising at two per cent over the medium term. This may also imply a transitory period in which inflation is moderately above target.”

As Bloomberg reminds us, the strategy review changed the ECB’s target to “2% inflation over the medium term” from “close to but below 2%.” So the big question was: How will it change its guidance on when rates change? Here’s a reminder of the old guidance:

“The Governing Council expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at their present or lower levels until it has seen the inflation outlook robustly converge to a level sufficiently close to, but below, 2% within its projection horizon, and such convergence has been consistently reflected in underlying inflation dynamics.”

And here is the redline comparison on its forward guidance:

In other words, similar to the Fed, the ECB policy will focus on the rearview mirror, tying rate moves to actual interest rate changes rather than forecasts.

The bottom line is that while the statement was tweaked largely as expected, it provided no updated guidance on future PEPP purchases, which according to some was disappointing to the doves.

  • The ECB statement notes rates were left unchanged, while forward guidance on rates was tweaked to reflect the new inflation mandatate, with an emphasis on realised inflation outcomes.
  • However, no further details were unveiled about a transition for PEPP purchases into a new format, as hinted by President Lagarde; forward guidance on asset purchases was maintained for PEPP and APP.
  • Accordingly, there has been some positive ticks in the EUR/USD currency, with analysts reasoning that given that market was looking for a dovish change to the statement, what we have gotten is slightly disappointing (less dovish than expected).

In kneejerk response, and confirming that most of what the ECB said had been priced in, the EUR spiked initially only to fade all gains and to last trade at 1.790, just 5 pips from its pre-ECB level.

END

FRANCE/CORONAVIRUS.LOCKDOWNS

UK

London workers are now demanding $7,000 payoff before returning to work in the office

(zerohedge)

London Office Workers Demand $7,000 Payoff Before Returning To Office

 
THURSDAY, JUL 22, 2021 – 05:45 AM

“Freedom Day” has come and gone, and yet the small businesses and retail shops flanking London’s retail district are still struggling as the number of white-collar workers flocking to the City and other parts of the city remains well below its pre-pandemic level. One reason is that British workers are digging in their heels and demanding a pay raise or some other form of compensation in exchange for returning to the office.

According to surveys from YouGov, and Locatee, office workers want pay raises equivalent to the cost of some annual railway season tickets to return to their desks full-time after the pandemic.

With COVID-19 restrictions leaving many offices empty, white-collar staff have spent 16 months mostly working from home. Just 17% now say they actively want a full-time return to the office, research for workplace analytics firm Locatee shows.

As rising wages for hourly workers fail to keep pace with inflation, just 17% of white collar workers say they would actively want a full-time return to the office. However, 43% told YouGov that a cash incentive might help change their minds. In London, the average worker who said cash would be a suitable incentive asked for £5,100 (just under $7K), which covers the annual cost of a railway ticket between London and the commuter town of Turnbridge Wells in Kent.

According to Bloomberg, the survey results “underscore the difficulties in engineering a post-pandemic ‘new normal’. Most firms are already planning on recalling staff, but some of the big banks in the UK and Europe have been less eager than their American counterparts. The rise of the Delta variant has also prompted some large companies to reconsider their timeline.

“The appetite for remote working will remain high for the foreseeable future,” said Thomas Kessler, CEO of Locatee, a purveyor of “workplace insights”. “However, the importance of physical office space in underpinning company culture should not be underestimated, particularly after a year of reduced colleague interaction.”

Nearly one-third of people presently looking for work now expect to work from home at least two days each week. Meanwhile, roughly 24% of companies are standing by their demands that workers return to the office full time. Younger workers are typically more eager to return to the office (where they’re more likely to enjoy socializing with other younger workers). But for older workers with a family or children, the preferences are clear – and pretty soon, employers might be forced to settle for a ‘hybrid’ set up – whether they like it or not.

END

UK

They are concerned? Addiction to QE!! No it is not possible

(MishShedlock)

UK’s House Of Lords Is Concerned Over A Dangerous Addiction To QE

 
THURSDAY, JUL 22, 2021 – 03:30 AM

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

When and how will central banks escape their addiction to QE? That question was addressed in a report by the UK House of Lords.

The House of Lords is Investigating a Dangerous Addiction to QE

The report is through the eyes of the UK regarding the Bank of England but the comments and concerns apply to every central bank. Here are some snips.

Lords: In the UK, quantitative easing was envisaged, at the point of introduction in 2009, as a short-term measure to support the economy through the global financial crisis. However, over the last decade or so, the programme has expanded substantially, and it has become the Bank of England’s main monetary policy tool.

Mish: It was supposedly going to be short-term everywhere. It wasn’t.

Bank of England Balance Sheet

Lords: We launched this inquiry at this juncture for several reasons. First, the quantitative easing programme has not been subject to sufficient scrutiny, including in Parliament, given its size, longevity and economic importance. The increased role of the Bank of England in the economy merits enhanced accountability by Parliament. Second, the substantial escalation of quantitative easing during the COVID-19 pandemic was unprecedented. Third, we wished to examine the extent to which quantitative easing has achieved its stated objectives, along with its effects on the real economy, growth and inflation.

Lords: Professor Tim Congdon, Founder and Chairman of the Institute of International Monetary Research, told us that the use of quantitative easing in 2009 prevented a deflationary spiral from taking place. He said that without quantitative easing, “the quantity of money would have fallen very rapidly”. Adam Posen, President of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, said that quantitative easing “tends to work most powerfully when a financial panic is under way”, but its ability to stimulate spending and investment in stable economic conditions is like “pushing on a string.”

Mish: Pushing on a string is a Keynesian analogy. Yet, it is very clear that QE did not stimulate bank lending in the US, EU, or Japan.

Lords: Professor Philip Davis, Professor of Banking and Finance at Brunel University and a Fellow at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR), said there is “some evidence” of pension funds engaging in a “search for yield” through investment in leveraged alternative assets, structured products, private equity and derivatives. Nigel Wilson, Chief Executive Officer at Legal & General, said that quantitative easing is not the right policy tool for stimulating sustainable economic growth. He said that quantitative easing had boosted asset prices and stabilised financial markets successfully, but that it cannot be expected to create sustainable economic growth, for which an active fiscal policy was needed instead.

Mish: Correct. QE undoubtedly suppressed interest rates, encouraged financial speculation, and hurt pension plan goals. It also kept zombie corporations alive at great expense and hurt price discovery. 

LordsLord Macpherson of Earl’s Court, former Permanent Secretary at HM Treasury, told us that the effectiveness of quantitative easing had diminished over time. When it was first deployed in 2009—after interest rates were cut from 4.5% in October 2008 to 0.5% in March 2009—it “had a real impact”. However, he argued that when long-term interest rates are close to the zero lower bound the Bank of England must “buy a great deal of debt to have any impact at all.

Mish: It is now extremely counterproductive. The Fed crams money down banks’ throats and they don’t want it and cannot use it. The result has been a massive surge in reverse repos.

LordsWhile the evidence on quantitative easing’s economic impact is mixed, we note that central bank research tends to show quantitative easing in a more positive light than the academic literature. We conclude, on balance, that the evidence shows quantitative easing has had limited impact on growth and aggregate demand over the last decade. To stimulate economic growth and aggregate demand, quantitative easing is reliant on a series of transmission mechanisms that operate primarily in and through financial markets. There is limited evidence to suggest that these increase bank lending or investment, or boost consumer spending by wealthy asset holders.

Mish: Don’t ever expect policy makers, academia, or politicians to admit they were wrong.

Lords: One of the deliberate consequences of quantitative easing is to raise asset prices. There is a body of evidence that perceives this to have increased wealth inequalities. However, when we asked the Governor whether quantitative easing had increased wealth inequality in the UK, he said that he “would not agree.”

Mish: The key word is “deliberate”. Central banks purposely sponsored bubbles hoping to avoid later consequences.

Lords: Other witnesses told us that the more persistent than expected use of quantitative easing over the last decade had led to excessive and potentially destabilising risk-taking in markets. Dr Mohamed El-Erian, President of Queens’ College Cambridge and Chief Economic Adviser at Allianz, told us that markets are in a bubble in which “financial assets are totally decoupled from [economic] fundamentals.

Mish: Totally agree. The Bank of England of course disagrees, so does the Fed, BOJ, etc.

LordsQuantitative easing hastens the resulting increase in the cost of servicing the Government’s debt if interest rates were to rise across the curve. On 6 July 2021, the Office for Budget Responsibility said that since 2008, the proportion of Government debt on which interest rates respond within the first year “has more than doubled”, which “has made the first-year fiscal impact of a one percentage point rise in interest rates six times greater than it was just before the financial crisis, and almost twice what it was before the pandemic, just 18 months ago.” Unwinding quantitative easing is a process sometimes referred to as quantitative tightening, which is a contractionary policy applied to decrease the amount of money and liquidity in the economy. This process will involve central banks reducing the size of their balance sheets. They can do this by allowing their bond holdings to mature rather than replacing them, tapering or slowing the amount of asset purchases made, or selling gilts back to the market. In 2013, the Federal Reserve announced it would begin to reduce or ‘taper’ the pace of its asset purchases. In reaction to the announcement, which was not expected by the financial markets, bond yields and financial market volatility rose significantly. This response by the financial markets was known as a ‘taper tantrum’ in the financial media.

Lords: There is an increasing risk that central banks are facing a “no-exit paradigm” from quantitative easing. No central bank has managed successfully to reverse its asset purchases over the medium to long-term, and the key issue facing central banks as they look to halt or reverse quantitative easing is whether it will trigger panic in financial markets that spills over into the real economy.

Mish: Central banks discuss tapering but never succeeded. Are they now trapped in a “no-exit paradigm”? 

Lords: Quantitative easing’s precise effect on inflation is unclear, and the magnitude of recent quantitative easing on future inflation has not yet been established. However, we heard that the latest round of quantitative easing could have an inflationary effect as it coincides with substantial Government spending, bottlenecks in supply, and a recovery in demand after the COVID-19 pandemic.

Mish: The inflationary aspect has largely been in the price of assets. However, there is a knock on impact in which people feeling wealthy buy cars extra homes take excess vacations etc, boosting consumer prices as well.

Lords Conclusions

  • When quantitative easing was introduced it was envisaged that it would support the UK economy after a sharp fall in aggregate demand following the 2008–09 global financial crisis. However, over the last decade it has been deployed in various circumstances quite different from those of 2009 to tackle a range of different problems. This has had a ratchet effect, whereby the scale of quantitative easing has been increased repeatedly, with no subsequent attempts to reverse it. This has only served to exacerbate the challenges involved in unwinding the policy. 

  • Trade-offs that may have been acceptable in a policy designed as a temporary measure have become increasingly controversial as the programme has persisted. 

  • Quantitative easing has also made Bank of England and HM Treasury policymaking more interdependent, blurring monetary and fiscal policy, and this has started to erode the perception that the Bank has acted wholly independently of political considerations. We are concerned that scepticism of the Bank’s stated reasons for quantitative easing grew significantly during the COVID-19 pandemic, when many market participants said that they believed the Bank of England had used quantitative easing primarily to finance the Government’s deficit spending.

  • Finally, we are concerned that the scale of quantitative easing exposes the Bank of England to political pressure not to raise interest rates if rising inflation does not prove to be short-term as is forecast by the Bank.

Mish Conclusion

The concerns of the House of Lords are well stated and should be heeded but they won’t be anywhere. 

Despite the clear market response that QE serves no purpose, and is in fact counterproductive, central banks remain committed to it.

For a discussion of the negative impacts of QE that some might equate to “pushing on a string”, please see Down the Rabbit Hole in Reverse Repos, What is the Fed Doing?

Also note that Economic Nonsense is Extremely Well Anchored in Fantasyland, and Not Just at the Fed

*  *  *

 
 

end

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

 
 
 
IRAN//
 
Two protesters shot  as water crisis escalates.  Iran is having the worst drought in 50 years.
(zerohedge)

At Least 2 Iranian Protesters Shot As Water Crisis Grows: “Worst Drought In 50 Years”

 
WEDNESDAY, JUL 21, 2021 – 09:40 PM

At least two have been killed after multiple nights of large-scale protests over severe water shortages in Iran’s southwest Khuzestan province. The region is said to be experiencing its worst drought in a half-century, which has devastated agriculture and livestock, and left many thousands of homes without water as families plea with authorities for a solution to the crisis. 

Al Jazeera reports that the deaths came amid ongoing clashes with police: “Two young men were shot and killed during a second night of protests over water shortages in southwest Iran,” citing local reporting. People can be heard in social media videos chanting, “People are thirsty, we want water!”

Over the weekend Iranian authorities blamed “opportunists and rioters” for the violence, with a governor in the region, Omid Sabripour, telling state media:

“During the rally, rioters shot in the air to provoke the people, but unfortunately one of the bullets hit a person present at the scene and killed him,” he said.

The protests began last week, with Al Jazeera further noting that hugely provocative chants of “Death to the dictator” and “Death to Khamenei” were heard. 

Already throughout the summer other parts of Iran have witnessed protests over severe electricity shortages leading to unplanned, intermittent blackouts – which Tehran officials have actually in some instances admitted is due in large part to mismanagement and neglect, while also blaming US-led sanctions.

Both the energy and water crisis are deepening the outrage of the Iranian populace, particularly during a hot summer, and given apartment high rises in places like Tehran and other big cities are not designed to go long periods without air conditioning. The water protests have reached several cities in the oil rich southwest.

The regional news source Iran International previously explained that the country’s power consumption this summer “has topped 60,000 megawatts per day, a more than ten percent increase compared with last year, while electricity generation has remained the same at 50,000-56,000 megawatts.” And further the report noted:

As electricity remains subsidized and cheap, there is no incentive for people to limit its use. It also makes Iran a magnate for cryptocurrency mining by huge computer farms that are consume perhaps up to ten percent of electricity supplies in the country.

In recent months authorities have vowed to disrupt all illegal crypto mining, despite it once being a key way for the country to offset the severe US sanctions blow under the past Trump administration. 

The Associated Press recently emphasized that the water and electricity crises are closely intertwined: “The country has faced rolling blackouts for weeks now, in part over what authorities describe as a drought striking the nation.

“Precipitation had decreased by almost 50 percent in the last year, leaving dams with dwindling water supplies to fuel the country,” the report said.

end 

SOMALIA/USA

Doorknob Biden initiates his first Somalia airstrikes against al Shabaab militants.

(zerohedge)

First Somalia Airstrikes Of Biden Presidency As Congress Still Questioning Syria Strikes

 
WEDNESDAY, JUL 21, 2021 – 10:40 PM

The Pentagon has confirmed that President Joe Biden has carried out his first military strikes on the African continent, on Tuesday launching strikes on Somalia targeting al-Qaeda linked al Shabaab militants. “The Department of Defense can confirm that in coordination with the Federal Government of Somalia, US Africa Command forces conducted one airstrike against al-Shabaab in the vicinity of Galkayo, Somalia, today,” the Pentagon said.

Pentagon spokeswoman Cindi King indicated the operation took place “in the vicinity of Galkayo, Somalia,” which is a city in the country’s center, according to The Hill. “A battle-damage assessment is still pending due to the ongoing engagement between al-Shabaab and Somali forces,” she said Tuesday.

 

Aftermath of prior Al-Shabab terror attack, via AFP/Getty Images

The Somali government has long been battling the Islamist insurgent group, which has in the past been responsible for hundreds of kidnappings as well as sporadic terror attacks on civilian areas of the war-torn country. The US military said it worked in coordination with the Somali government for Tuesday’s operation.

It marks the third publicly confirmed Biden-ordered air strikes of his presidency, with the prior two launched in Eastern Syria along the Iraq border ostensibly against “Iran-backed militia” engaged in tit-for-tat attacks on American bases.

According to The Hillthe last time US forces hit Somalia was on Jan. 19 – just before Biden was sworn into office – and after Trump had loosened the rules of engagement for drone strikes.

Current US rules of engagement based on the stated policies of the Biden administration say that any planned airstrikes conducted outside Afghanistan, Syria, and Iraq have to be formally submitted to the White House to “ensure that the president has full visibility on proposed significant actions.” This means it’s most likely Biden personally signed off of the strikes.

During the “global war on terror” years airstrikes in Somalia in grew, especially drone strikes, resulting in growing civilian casualties…

Amnesty International and other human rights groups have previously urged a halt to America’s drone action in Somalia over mounting civilian casualties…

Alarmingly this suggests military commanders do have the option of ordering operations in these three countries without explicit approval from the commander-in-chief. While the US has long operated inside Iraq and Afghanistan at the invitation of the governments there, Damascus has long maintained that the US presence in Syria is a flagrant violation of its sovereignty.

Some Congressional leaders – even among Democrats – have of late agreed, demanding that based on constitutional requirements he must submit notification to Congress. The same war powers debate could just as easily be had when it comes to Somalia, however, it probably won’t.

end

TURKEY

Now the flooding has hit the eastern part of Turkey

(zerohedge)

Dangerous Floods Hit Towns In Turkey’s Eastern Black Sea Region

 
THURSDAY, JUL 22, 2021 – 11:57 AM

First, it was Germany, then China. Now heavy rain and flooding are heavily impacting Turkey’s eastern Black Sea region. 

Dramatic images and videos appear on social media of massive floodwaters ripping through Arhavi, a town and district of Artvin Province located in the Black Sea region. Down the street, another village called Fındıklı has also reported flooding

“After the heavy rains experienced since yesterday evening in the Arhavi district of Artvin, the district center turned into a lake with the overflow of the Arhavi Stream. In most of the district center, streets and avenues were covered with water, vehicles were underwater. While search and rescue teams are running to the aid of the citizens with boats in the district center, the volunteers in the region are calling for emergency help for the animals on the street and in the nursing home,” according to Ajanimo News

Photos show Arhavi is inundated with floodwaters on Thursday. 

Floodwaters are overflowing the river bank and pouring into Arhavi, sweeping away vehicles. So far, no official death toll count has been released. 

More video on floodwaters impacting Turkey’s eastern Black Sea region.

A large residential district in Arhavi was submerged. 

More pictures of the flooding. 

Some reported the heavy rains in northeastern Turkey are due to seawater temperatures approaching 86F in the Eastern Black Sea and sparked heavy rains. 

*This story is still developing. 

6.Global Issues

CORONAVIRUS UPDATE/

A good summary of where we are on with respect to the ongoing battle with COVID 19

(Schachtel)

‘Zero COVID’ Catastrophe: Participating Nations See New Records Across The Board

 
WEDNESDAY, JUL 21, 2021 – 08:40 PM

Authored by Jordan Schachtel via ‘Dossier’ substack,

Zero Covid, the idea that heavy-handed government edicts and population controls can permanently eliminate a coronavirus from a country, is now failing spectacularly everywhere it is being tried.

You might not read about it in western corporate press agencies, but Zero Covid nations are seeing explosions in Covid-19 cases across the board. The widely praised “success story” countries that followed the radical ideology that is Zero Covid have not only failed to contain a virus, but are now witnessing the uncontrolled spread of that virus in their population centers. The governments committed to this pseudoscientific, totalitarian adventure are scrambling for options, and responding by locking down their nations and further violating the rights of their citizens. The lid has flown off the Zero Covid pressure cooker, revealing the shortcomings of such a reckless ideological endeavor.

Let’s take a look at how “Zero Covid” nations are holding up:

Australia

Australia is arguably the most dedicated large nation to a Zero Covid strategy. The country has been closed off from the vast majority of the world since the beginning of COVID Mania. Even many Australian citizens have been unable to enter or leave the country. 

Australia has pursued so many lockdowns that it’s pretty much impossible to keep track of what number we’re currently at. Zero Covid has been an unmitigated disaster, as Canberra’s elimination strategy has unsurprisingly failed to permanently move cases to zero. 

On Thursday, Melbourne and Sydney, Australia’s two largest cities, enacted yet another lockdown. This will be Melbourne’s fifth lockdown in the span of a year and a half.

Australia’s lockdowns have been infamously ruthless.  In some places, lockdowns meant citizens were only allowed to leave their homes for one hour a day, and they were not allowed to travel outside of a certain radius from their homes. In many places, the act of protesting is illegal, and it will be met with by riot police. Australia has also enacted mandatory quarantine camps for citizens who are privileged enough to be allowed to return to the country.

Vietnam

Labeled a Zero Covid “success story” by the corporate press for its ultra stringent policies, cases are now exploding in Vietnam.

The government, in full panic mode, has responded by locking down major cities, only for the case count to continue to move upwards.

South Korea

Seoul set up one of the most intrusive Covid surveillance regimes in the world. Applauded by authoritarians as a country that had its priorities in order, South Korea was supposedly the model “contact tracing” nation. Today, South Korea is seeing record numbers across the board.

This week, the country has seen record case loads. Zero Covid has failed, and the government has responded by restricting rights even further.

Singapore

Once a Zero Covid nation in good standing with the radical ideologue “public health experts,” the government in Singapore wised up and decided last month to drop the idea of forever eliminating a minimally threatening endemic virus.

China

China is lying about its COVID numbers and just about everything else. The Chinese Communist Party claims to be a Zero Covid participant, but in reality, Beijing has been fooling the world about mitigation and suppression “successes” since day one of Covid Mania.

Thailand

Thailand, a widely praised “success story” for its strict lockdowns and other draconian policies in pursuit of Zero Covid, is setting its own Covid case records.

New Zealand

New Zealand, which has been in a self siege since the beginning of 2020, remains completely committed to its Zero Covid elimination strategy. Like Australia, the country has set up quarantine camps for people who have been granted access to the nation. Due to isolation-related Covid “immunity debt,” the country is seeing skyrocketing hospitalizations among children, who are not threatened by Covid-19.

Free from Covid (for now), emergency rooms are said to be at a “breaking point” in the country, with the country dealing with unknown “winter illness.” It seems the Zero Covid fanatics have forgotten that there are still other ways to get sick.

Kiwi officials have not even commenced discussions over how long they will remain committed to their self siege strategy. Their closed borders have resulted in a massive shortage among hospital staff.

Summary

Every country that has embraced the radical notion of Zero Covid has ended up failing to contain a virus and/or failing to accept that the costs of attempting to contain a virus have been exponentially worse than the benefits of containing the virus. The promised “cures” have been infinitely worse than the disease. There are no longer any “success stories” involving nations using tyrannical means in an attempt to stop a virus. Zero Covid, as any rational person could have predicted a long time ago, has failed in spectacular fashion.

END

 

Michael Snyder takes a hard look at what anew wave of lockdown will do to the global economy

(Michael Snyder)

What Will This New Wave Of Lockdowns Do To The Global Economy?

 
THURSDAY, JUL 22, 2021 – 05:00 AM

Authored by Michael Snyder via TheMostImportantNews.com,

For a few months a lot of people were convinced that humanity’s efforts to defeat COVID were being successful, and many believed that the pandemic would soon be behind us for good.  But now the “Delta variant” is spreading like wildfire all over the globe, and this is prompting national governments around the world to institute a new wave of restrictions and lockdowns.  Needless to say, the restrictions and lockdowns that we witnessed in 2020 were absolutely devastating for the global economy, and many areas of the planet remain economically depressed as a result.  As the “Delta variant” continues to spread, will this new wave of restrictions and lockdowns push the world economy into another major downturn during the second half of 2021?

I am extremely concerned about how some national governments are choosing to respond to this new variant.  In particular, I think that officials in Australia have gone completely nuts.  Now that a third state has implemented new restrictions, more than half of the country is currently under lockdown…

More than half of Australia’s 25 million people were under lockdown on Tuesday after a third state adopted movement curbs to rein in the highly contagious Delta variant of coronavirus.

Australia’s infections and deaths are well below other developed nations, but its use of lockdowns, prompted by a sluggish vaccination campaign, is putting pressure on the national government, with polls at their lowest in a year and just months before elections are due to be held.

Once upon a time, I used to recommend Australia as a potential relocation destination.

But I don’t think that I will ever be able to recommend Australia again after what we have witnessed during this pandemic.

Things have gotten really crazy in Japan as well.  Because they are hosting the Olympics, officials have instituted extremely strict restrictions, and this is definitely rubbing a lot of people the wrong way.

Savannah Guthrie is in Japan right now, and she says that it is like “stepping back in time”

“They have very strict protocols here,” Savannah said. “In a way it’s like stepping back in time. At least for those of us in (the United States), at the height of the pandemic, we remember the washing of the hands, the mask-wearing, all of that. It’s just like that here. It’s really locked down here in Tokyo.”

I don’t usually use the word “paranoia” very much, but in this case I believe that it is justified.

Those that are traveling to Japan for the Olympics are being forced to be tested for COVID over and over again

Savannah said that the protocols began before she even left the United States. International visitors to Japan have to take two coronavirus tests before they get on a plane. The first has to be taken about 96 hours before travel, the second 72 hours before.

After landing in Tokyo, visitors have to test again at the airport, and then take a daily test for the first three days in the country.

But even with such dramatic restrictions, the “Delta variant” just continues to spread, and the head of the Tokyo games is openly admitting that he is “prepared to discuss a last-minute cancellation” of the Olympics…

As Games-linked Covid cases continue to rise in a city rising in indignation at the Olympics taking place, Tokyo 2020 chief Toshiro Muto said he was prepared to discuss a last-minute cancellation.

Isn’t that insane?

According to Muto, officials are watching the number of new cases in Japan very carefully

“We can’t predict what will happen with the number of coronavirus cases. So we will continue discussions if there is a spike in cases.

“We have agreed that based on the coronavirus situation, we will convene five-party talks again.

“At this point, the coronavirus cases may rise or fall, so we will think about what we should do when the situation arises.”

Over in France, the implementation of new “health pass” rules is creating a giant uproar…

From July 21st, health passes are required to enter public cultural and leisure venues that welcome 50 people or more. This applies to venues such as theatres, cinemas, libraries, theme parks, concert halls, festivals, museums and monuments, and takes effect ahead of a wider extension of the health pass rules from August 1st.

From now on, those that have not been vaccinated will be relegated to second class status in France, but the truth is that “fully vaccinated” people are catching the “Delta variant” too.

In fact, a “fully vaccinated” White House official and a “fully vaccinated” aide to Nancy Pelosi both just tested positive for COVID.

The “Delta variant” is taking the U.S. by storm, and Los Angeles County has become one of the epicenters of this new outbreak…

Los Angeles County is now recording more than 10,000 coronavirus cases a week — a pace not seen since March — an alarming sign of the dangers the Delta variant poses to people who have not been vaccinated and heightening pressure on health officials to reverse the trend.

A Los Angeles Times data analysis found L.A. County was recording 101 weekly coronavirus cases for every 100,000 residents, up from 12 for the seven-day period that ended June 15. That means the county has surpassed the threshold to have “high” community transmission of the disease, the worst tier as defined by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Mask mandates are back, and that certainly will not help the California economy, but what many small business owners are deathly afraid of is another long-term lockdown

“In general, nobody likes wearing masks – I don’t know anyone that cheers having to wear one – but if the choice is another 15 months of shutdown or wearing a mask inside, then I will be happy to wear a mask,” said Cache Bouren, owner of Haberdasher in San Jose.

“Facing the idea of another six to eight months without any real revenue coming [is] a very scary thing,” admitted Bouren, who is set to open up a new bar called Cash Only soon.

In 2020, countless small businesses in the United States shut their doors on a permanent basis, and countless others barely survived.

In fact, one recent survey found that approximately 20 percent of all the small businesses that actually survived “came frighteningly close” to shutting down for good…

One in five small business owners came frighteningly close to shuttering their business for good during the COVID-19 pandemic. A new survey polled 1,000 small business executives to analyze the impact the pandemic had on their businesses and how they’re planning to recover moving forward.

Three in four respondents agree the past year was the hardest they’ve ever had in business. Those challenges include dealing with decreased sales (46%), fewer customers (42%), and lower production (37%). Two in five small business executives had to take a pay cut to keep their companies afloat during COVID. Other areas bosses cut down on in 2020 include the cost of supplies (40%) and marketing budgets (37%).

We simply cannot afford another round of lockdowns here in the United States.

And the same thing is true for countries all over the globe that have previously experienced lockdowns.

But as the “Delta variant” continues to spread, it appears to be inevitable that more new lockdowns will continue to be rolled out.

Is this going to be the answer every time a new health crisis erupts?  Because I believe that we have now entered an “era of pestilences”, and I also believe that the health threats that are ahead of us are going to be far worse than what we have already been through.

The world economy was just getting back to some semblance of “normalcy”, and now things are starting to get completely nuts again.

This pandemic is like a nightmare that never seems to end, and the way that officials have reacted all over the world has just made things even worse.

END

Data from the Front line Doctors in their lawsuit against government (venue Northern Federal District//Alabama)

FACTS From United States District Court: COVID-19 is all “Hype” – No worse than Flu – No need to Mask or Lockdown — VACCINES KILLED 45,000 so far!

 

FACTS From United States District Court: COVID-19 is all "Hype" - No worse than Flu - No need to Mask or Lockdown -- VACCINES KILLED 45,000 so far!

Documents filed with the United States District Court show the “Public Health Emergency” that is COVID-19 . . .  does not exist.  The disease has a 99.8% survival rate, no worse than a nasty Flu season.  Masks and Lockdowns are not needed and are illegal restriction of freedom.  

“Asymptomatic Spread” of COVID-19 is a complete fabrication based solely on a mathematical model; NO PROOF IT EVER HAPPENED!

Stunning legal documents filed in the United States District Court, under Docket #: 2:21-cv-00702-CLM make clear the hype around COVID-19 is based on deliberately inflated numbers and quite obvious FRAUD.

Rather than tell you what it says, you can read it all for yourself below.   

If perusing 67 pages is not for you, then you can listen to the one hour Hal Turner Radio Show that began its coverage HERE, or the two hour Hal Turner Show that re-capped the first hour and went into SPECIFIC DETAIL about how the vaccines can kill youHERE:

end

 

 

Australian MP Says Unvaccinated People “Need To Be Controlled And Restricted”

 
THURSDAY, JUL 22, 2021 – 11:15 AM

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

Australian MP Frank Pangallo says that what unvaccinated people are allowed to do in the community “will need to be controlled and restricted” by authorities.

The SA-Best Party legislator called on the Australian government, which has indicated it won’t make vaccine passport compulsory, to make them mandatory for access to “hospitality venues, public places, workplaces, and for travel,” reports Reclaim the Net.

Pangallo asserts that “vaxports” (vaccine passports) will be crucial to avoid the country suffering a “health and economic catastrophe.”

“While people might still have a choice whether or not to get vaccinated, what they can do in the community will need to be controlled and restricted,” said the MP.

In other words, those who refuse to take the vaccine should become second class citizens, be discriminated against and remain under de facto lockdown indefinitely.

Citing the threat of new variants, Pangallo stated, “I understand people will think this is a rather drastic and draconian step, but this pandemic continues to evolve in ways and waves nobody can predict.”

Despite only 13% of the Australian population having been vaccinated so far, Pangallo said ‘vaxports’ were a necessity in order “to prevent the entire country going into lockdown.”

Australia is pursuing a drastically stupid ‘zero COVID’ policy which has led to entire towns and cities being locked down after the discovery of just a single infection.

As we highlighted yesterday, public health officials are now telling citizens that they shouldn’t even engage in conversation with each other (even if wearing masks) in the name of stopping the spread of the virus.

Authorities have also overseen the most brutal enforcement of lockdown out of any developed country.

A pregnant woman was arrested in her own home for planning an anti-lockdown protest on Facebook, while the state also gave itself the power to seize children from their parents and enter homes without a warrant under COVID-19 rules.

end

YouTube Deletes 15 Videos From Brazilian President’s Channel For “COVID Misinformation”

 
THURSDAY, JUL 22, 2021 – 02:45 PM

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

Google-owned YouTube is once again flexing more power than world leaders by deleting 15 videos from Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro’s channel over claims of ‘COVID misinformation’.

Videos that were removed included one that discussed the use of hydroxychloroquine as a treatment for COVID, as well as former health minister Eduardo Pazuello comparing coronavirus to AIDS.

“Post-HIV pandemic, HIV continues to exist. There are still some who are contaminated, most are treated, and life goes on,” he stated.

Some of the content was also deleted because YouTube doesn’t allow anyone to question the efficacy of masks.

This is particularly bizarre given that WHO and Anthony Fauci himself said early on during the pandemic that masks were useless.

Fauci wrote in a February 2020 email that a typical store-bought face mask “is not really effective in keeping out virus, which is small enough to pass through material.”

similar argument was made recently by Dr Colin Axon, a SAGE advisor for the UK government, who told the London Telegraph that medics have given people a “cartoonish” view of how how microscopic viruses travel through the air, and the masks have gaps in them that are up to 5000 times bigger than COVID particles.

Apparently, discussing concerns shared by top doctors and scientists is enough to get content removed, even if you’re the leader of a major country.

“Bolsonaro and his office have not yet released a statement on the removal of the videos, but his official Twitter account did post a message urging followers to join him on Telegram to receive daily information directly,” reports RT.

As we previously highlighted, YouTube also automatically removes videos of anti-lockdown protests, even if the purpose of the video is to mock the protesters.

 END

This is trouble ahead!!  NFL teams with unvax’d players to forfeit games and incur financial liability during any outbreaks

(zerohedge)

NFL Teams With Unvax’d Players To Forfeit Games, Incur Financial Liability During Outbreaks

 
 
THURSDAY, JUL 22, 2021 – 03:40 PM

The NFL has notified clubs that if there’s a COVID outbreak among unvaccinated players, teams who can’t reschedule during the 18-week season will forfeit the match, be credited with a loss, and potentially incur financial liability and discipline from the commissioner.

According to the NFL Network‘s Tom Pelissero, the league intends to play its entire 272-game schedule over 18 weeks, and ‘does not anticipate adding a ’19th week’ to accommodate games that cannot be rescheduled within the current 18 weeks of the regular season.”

In short, all players need to be vaccinated unless teams want to risk running afoul of the new guidelines.

More via Pelissero:

  • Vaccinated individuals who test positive and are asymptomatic can return to duty after two negative tests 24 hours apart.
  • Unvaccinated individuals still subject to mandatory 10-day isolation period.
  • “Every club is obligated under the Constitution and Bylaws to have its team ready to play at the scheduled time and place. A failure to do so is deemed conduct detrimental. There is no right to postpone a game.”
  • If a club cannot play due to a Covid spike in vaccinated individuals, we will attempt to minimize the competitive and economic burden on both participating teams.

This is not good:  The Pegasus spyware has now targeted leaders of Governments and big media figures. 

 

 

 

(zerohedge)

 

 

 

Pegasus Spyware Targeted French President Macron – “Extremely Serious” Breach Under Investigation

 
THURSDAY, JUL 22, 2021 – 02:45 AM

The latest victim who was targeted using the phone hacking spyware Pegasus has been revealed to French President Emmanual Macron – part of a growing list that’s said to include some 600 government officials and politicians from over 30 countries. Israeli tech firm and Pegasus-developer NSO Group is in damage control mode after an international consortium of news outlets has published dozens of stories exposing the hacks. Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan is also on the list.

It’s believed that governments used the Israeli company’s military-grade hacking tools to access the phones of dissidents, activists and journalists in countries like UAE, Saudi Arabia, Morocco, and even Hungary. The fact that heads of state were also likely targeted suggests that customers also turned the powerful spyware against foreign rivals and enemies, or perhaps to get a leg up in major business or political negotiations. The Independent writes that the following 10 governments are believed to be NSO customers:

Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Kazakhstan, Mexico, Morocco, Rwanda, Saudi Arabia, Hungary, India and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

 

AFP via Getty Images

But in terms of world leaders also reportedly targeted, Macron may be the most visible and influential European figure thus far. 

“French newspaper Le Monde reports that Moroccan intelligence services identified a phone that Mr Macron had been using since 2017,”BBC reports of the new revelation. However, Morocco has denied ever being a client of NSO, despite the country’s name being all over the recent reporting.

The French presidency’s office has yet to confirm if Macron was a victim of a hack, and it’s as yet unclear if his phone was breached using Pegasus, but it called the allegations “very serious” if confirmed. 

“If confirmed this would be extremely serious” – a statement from Macron’s office said while saying a major investigation is underway.

According to the BBC, “Numbers on the leaked list are also said to include those of President Baram Salih of Iraq and South Africa’s Cyril Ramaphosa, as well as the current prime ministers of Pakistan, Egypt and Morocco, and the King of Morocco.”

Saudi Arabia was behind an NSO spyware attack on Jamal Khashoggi’s associates and family both before and after his murder, according to the new revelations…

As we described previously, Pegasus is a very advanced malware that infects iOS and Android devices to allow operators of the spyware to copy messages, photos, calls and other data, including secretly activate microphones and cameras. Based on the investigation of leaks initially reported in Forbidden Stories, the leak contains a list of 50,000 phone numbers that have been identified as those of people of interest by clients of NSO since 2016.

The list includes many close family members of one country’s ruler, suggesting he might have instructed the country’s intelligence agencies to explore the possibility of tracking and spying on their own relatives. Forbidden Stories has summarized the enormity of the leak and follow-up investigative reporting as follows:

An unprecedented leak of more than 50,000 phone numbers selected for surveillance with Pegasus, a spyware sold by Israeli company NSO Group, shows how this technology has been systematically abused for years to spy on journalists, human rights defenders, academics, businesspeople, lawyers, doctors, union leaders, diplomats, politicians and several heads of states.

Likely we have only witnessed the tip of the iceberg in terms of both government officials and journalists and activists targeted, with the further obvious implication of Israeli intelligence being at the center of this – as The Washington Post has recently explored.

Meanwhile, NSO Group has announced it’s shutting down all media inquiries related to the ongoing scandal…

end

GLOBAL INFLATION WATCH

Blain: Markets Are Ignoring The New Inflation Reality

 
 
THURSDAY, JUL 22, 2021 – 08:10 AM

Authored by Bill Blain via MorningPorridge.com,

“Nothing beside remains. Round the decay of that colossal wreck…”

Markets have entirely recovered after their wobble earlier this week, but it’s based on a simple belief: central banks will stand behind markets. Investors are increasingly convinced inflation threats are irrelevant – and they are wrong to do so. Inflation risks are growing from immediate climate change, the costs of rising environmental instability and inflation leaching out of financial assets into the real economy.

In between picking up phones and making important calls on a financial deal we’re working on – my day job – I’m going to be “fixed sights” on today’s ECB meeting and its likely consequences. I previewed the ECB strategy review and the limitations that achieving a compromise between member nations will create a few weeks ago. Rather than dwell on what might occur at today’s meeting – although I’m sure all the requisite back-room deals will have already have been done – I’m going to write it up tomorrow.

This morning..?

Well it’s pretty much same as, same as. The market has now recovered Monday’s crash with a two-day rally. I don’t believe any of the charts of stock price movements, or bond yield trends are telling us anything significant about what is happening in the real economy – they are going up because investors firmly believe global central banks will continue to juice global markets through unlimited interest rate distortion, QE and stimulus..

I must sound like a broken, jumping record – I’ve been warning on the consequence of monetary distortion for years…

As a result, I reject the 30-year old bond analysts telling us inflation is not a threat, because 10-year bond yields are so low. These very clever young folk have only ever worked in an environment where central bank distortions are the norm, rather than something extraordinary, unknown… which we thought would be a short-term market crutch rather than a permanent fixture.

I’ve now read so many opinions on inflation my eyes are starting to ache – it all depends on how you read the data. I completely accept the argument that some of the inflation inputs look “transitory”; mere supply side imbalances caused by factors such as hoarding and anticipation ahead of economies reopening, but there is no such thing as obvious in this swirling global economy.

Everyone on the short-term blip side of the inflation debate quotes how lumber prices spiked and then tumbled. Same effect in other critical commodities necessary for growth. However, I would simply note lumber prices are spiking again because of the accelerated weather-blown wildfire season starting early on the west coast.

There are two factors that make me suspect inflation is a much more dangerous force then this market perceives.

First, there is the immediate environment. It is going to change the global economy in terms of crushing productivity and returns – today, not in 2050.

The horrifying pictures of Chinese commuters trapped underground on a train after a year’s worth of rain fell in 3 days highlights just how much small changes in ocean temperatures have plunged global weather systems into turmoil.

I don’t particularly care if you are a climate change denier or a whale hugger – the evidence is becoming frighteningly clear. We have a problem. Heat Domes, Wildfires, Flooding, Powered up Monsoons, Coastal Erosion. You name it.. its happening and strip out the human misery, the reality is enormous bills to be paid.

It’s the costs that matter. They will have perverse economic effects. Munich Re reported natural disasters cost $166 bln in 2020. I googled the same question and found articles ranging from $95 bln to $280 bln.

What is immediately apparent is the number is rising. 2021 is shaping up to be an expensive year. For every disaster there is then the cost of rebuild and the effects of crowding out new capex and infrastructure spend. Insurance costs come out the bottom line – and will therefore directly impact productivity. Government amelioration of climate change will cost – and will be paid from taxation.. (Or NMT money printing – but more on that later..)

The effect of higher environment costs now (rather than the ones politicians hope to avoid in the future by zero-carbon policies in 30 years time) is critical. As the scale and scope of weather related disasters rise, the global economy will have to run faster just to stay still – a frightening thought when you read senior politicians like John Kerry arguing – with some justification – for a blanket ban on new oil, gas and coal.

The second factor is inflation is already here.

It’s already embedded in financial assets – sequestered in the rising prices of bonds and global equity. (Going to give myself and extra point for using sequestered without talking about Co2, darn.. just lost it..) That trapped inflation is now leaking into the real economy – just like a leaking barrel of toxic sludge dumped in a river. The mechanism is simple: investors holding financial assets are increasingly distrustful of valuations (which are impossibly high due to repressed interest rates), so they are switching from financial assets to real assets – like private equity and debt, property, and outright ownership of real assets.

We can see this clearly in the boom in SPACs, IPOs and rising property prices (even in commercial) that occurring despite the pandemic effect slowing the economy. Even planes are getting financed at levels right alongside pre-pandemic levels.

The inflation reality is it’s here and its going to rise. The recent inflation prints in the UK and US highlight that bonds are trading deep in negative real rates. (The Real Interest rate being interest rates less inflation.) That is unsustainable.

There is an element of “transitory” end-of-the-pandemic euphoric recovery inflation out there – but that’s just a distraction. Real inflation is coming from the cost the worrying wobbles in the environment are now generating, and the long-term leaching of buried financial asset inflation hitting the real economy…

That real inflation will change perceptions.

Yesterday UK NHS workers were told they are getting a three percent payrise, rather than the 1% the government originally proposed. The Unions are out there with demands for a blanket 15% rise. When one group of workers gets a rise… everyone else will demand similar…

Finally… Reserve currencies

I came across a brilliant graphic illustrating how reserve currencies have changed over the last 120 years from James Eagle on YouTube. Its well worth taking a moment to consider the past – and watch Sterling being replaced by the mighty Greenback and then remember the poem Ozymandias. Just saying….

 

end

Michael Every on the major global issues facing the world today: 

 

Michael Every…

Rabobank: All About The Sausages

 
THURSDAY, JUL 22, 2021 – 10:35 AM

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Bangers and Mash

It’s the depths of Northern hemisphere summer, and markets are appropriately ‘summery’: when one sends an email, one sometimes expects to hear an echo. Sadly, however, the real world does not stop. Which actually brings us to a British summer-time BBQ favorite – sausages.

They say that if one wants to appreciate both sausages and law, one should never watch either being made. Unfortunately, right now we have to watch the latter in the US, as the Biden infrastructure push continues, even as roads don’t look like they are being built to the necessary 10 Republican votes. Moreover, we get to watch both sausages *and* legislation coincide in the UK – and it is likely to turn market stomachs when they get back from the beach.

Yesterday, the UK government announced it intends to re-write the Northern Ireland Protocol agreed with the EU as part of the Brexit deal, releasing a 28-page report detailing how it wishes to proceed. This comes in response to UK retailers reporting British consumers in Northern Ireland face a narrower selection of goods and higher prices compared to the mainland; and that despite “Byzantine, pointless, pettifogging bureaucracy”, 40% of sausages and chilled meat shipments are being rejected even if the paperwork is adhered to. 

The UK states it will not use its right to trigger Article 16 to end the Protocol, and that it is “not over-prescriptive about solutions”. It suggests a compromise such as UK exporters declaring sausages are intended for Northern Irish, not Irish shops, and a dual EU/UK regulatory regime. The EU’s instant response, as the UK knew it would be, was “Non – and fill in the all the documents in black not blue pen, or les saucisses go in la poubelle”. As a reliably anti-EU Daily Mail op-ed rumbles: “I’m afraid I see trouble ahead: ructions in Northern Ireland, the EU and the UK at loggerheads, and President Biden ignorantly lambasting America’s closest ally” – the latter point in reference to Biden’s known support for Irish position. In short, Brexit still isn’t done, despite markets, like PM Johnson, having tried to put it behind them. We still don’t know what the final economic, and even geopolitical, geography will look like.

Perhaps covering this mess up slightly for now, besides a rare heatwave, is the fact *all* UK supermarket shelves are running empty in places due to a ‘pingdemic’: the Covid track and trace scheme that was needed back in early 2020 is now belatedly working, and up to 1.7m workers are at home in quarantine after being told they might live next door to someone who has tested positive. And if that isn’t the cause, it’s the global supply-chain snarl with no end in sight.

Yet zooming out from black vs. blue pens to red dashed lines, the UK just announced its two new aircraft carriers will be based in Japan from now on, with the first due to arrive in September. Think about that for a moment. Two vastly-expensive pieces of military equipment, full of US-made F-35s, and British sailors and sausages, kept on the other side of the world. It says a huge amount about the UK’s intentions to go global in at least one dimension – alongside the Quad. Expect new trade architecture to eventually flow as a quid pro quo, or else the UK isn’t doing diplomacy right. (And that is admittedly a real possibility with the current UK bridge crew, as we see with Northern Ireland.)

But back to Europe’s exciting phytosanitary standards. Today ECB President Lagarde will also present a new “strategic framework” – without mention of either aircraft carriers or sausages. (Although those who can join enough dots may see an implied reference for the need for a more geostrategic EU view of where the green inputs for the ECB’s certain-to-be-touted green transition are going to be sourced from.) Our ECB watchers believe the Bank’s new framework should not lead to immediate changes in the policy stance. However, the format of its meeting’s proceedings will be updated, which may lead to a slightly more dovish forward guidance, particularly on policy rates, to indicate that the ECB will persist in its monetary accommodation – and there is a small risk of more significant dovish changes to the guidance, including a potential formal indication of a transition phase to (higher) asset purchases after PEPP ends. One can easily imagine Lagarde never raising rates during her 8 years in office, just as Draghi never did.

Perhaps we should add central banks to the list of things one should never look too closely at if one wants to continue to appreciate them?

Meanwhile, market media has instead been focusing on what two billionaires had to say about Bitcoin – as if that matters when the regulators are flexing their muscles. At least they weren’t boring us with their holiday photos from space. They may want to fit that billionaire day-trip in soon though, because back in the sausage-making world of legislation/regulation, this week has seen a key appointment by President Biden – Jonathan Kanter as assistant attorney general for antitrust. This is a very strong signal, alongside Lina Khan at the FTC, that the recent Biden antitrust executive order means business. In short, it may be hard for a president to put things up, as the infrastructure deal deadlock shows, but with the right team of lawyers, it is quite possible to pull things down and break things up.

Apparently, Big Tech firms are already hiring away lawyers from the FTC to ensure the latter is under-staffed, and that they are well-versed in their opponents’ thinking. Except they won’t be. Tech titans will be hiring ‘Yes, aiming for a global monopoly is naturally good for consumers’ Borkians; and the new government brooms will logically hire younger Brandeisian firebrands who see monopolies and cartels as bad – I know, shocking, right? Expect market fireworks –and an explosion of lobbying– when they work this out.

But for now all the above bangers remain on the grill. (Until, in traditional British fashion, they are served blackened on the outside and worryingly pink in the middle, with a garnish of unexpected rain – to equally-sozzled consumers who therefore don’t notice). That leaves us with a market mash of low-conviction random walks across asset-classes.

end
 

7. OIL ISSUES

Another cyber attack on Saudi Aramco:  a new $50 million crypto extortion

(zerohedge)

Saudi Aramco Targeted In $50M Crypto Extortion Scheme After Major Data Breach

 
WEDNESDAY, JUL 21, 2021 – 05:40 PM

Saudi Aramco is pointing the finger at a third-party contractor for a breached data incident which has resulted in demands for $50 million in ransom from an unknown mysterious entity in what’s looking like a Colonial Pipeline style cyber drama. The Saudi oil giant acknowledged to The Associated Press that it “recently became aware of the indirect release of a limited amount of company data which was held by third-party contractors.” 

“We confirm that the release of data was not due to a breach of our systems, has no impact on our operations and the company continues to maintain a robust cybersecurity posture,” Aramco said, without specifying the contractor through which the breach happened. The language of “indirect release” reveals it was likely a leak and not the result of an external hacking operation.

 

Saudi Aramco file image, via The Times

It’s also unclear just what type of data or possibly “compromising” content the hackers are in possession of – only that they deem it valuable enough to attempt the blackmail scheme, now subject of multiple international reports. It appears they are seeking payment in the cryptocurrency Monero (XMR).

The AP describes that “A page accessed by the AP on the darknet — a part of the internet hosted within an encrypted network and accessible only through specialized anonymity-providing tools — claimed the extortionist held 1 terabyte worth of Aramco data. A terabyte is 1,000 gigabytes.”

“The page offered Aramco a chance to have the data deleted for $50 million in cryptocurrency, while another timer counted down from $5 million, likely in an effort to pressure the company. It remains unclear who is behind the ransom plot,” the report continues.

Among the world’s biggest companies, Saudi Aramco has over 66,000 employees and sees about $230 billion in annual revenue, and is valued at $2 trillion. Like the Colonial Pipeline saga in the US, the company is no doubt mulling as ‘an option’ the possibility of paying the ransom to make its problems quickly go away.

According to the prominent cybersecurity publication Bleeping Computer, it appears those in possession of the terabyte of Aramco data do have highly sensitive information. “The group says that the 1 TB dump includes documents pertaining to Saudi Aramco’s refineries located in multiple Saudi Arabian cities, including Yanbu, Jazan, Jeddah, Ras Tanura, Riyadh, and Dhahran,” the publication writes.

Bleeping Computer further details that some of this data includes:

  1. Full information on 14,254 employees: name, photo, passport copy, email, phone number, residence permit (Iqama card) number, job title, ID numbers, family information, etc.
  2. Project specification for systems related to/including electrical/power, architectural, engineering, civil, construction management, environmental, machinery, vessels, telecom, etc.
  3. Internal analysis reports, agreements, letters, pricing sheets, etc.
  4. Network layout mapping out the IP addresses, Scada points, Wi-Fi access points, IP cameras, and IoT devices.
  5. Location map and precise coordinates.
  6. List of Aramco’s clients, along with invoices and contracts.

The group is threatening to sell or dump the Aramco proprietary data online if the company doesn’t act fast to pay the ransom, even reportedly setting up a ‘countdown’ clock.

end

8 EMERGING MARKET& AUSTRALIA ISSUES 

AUSTRALIA//COVID 19/DELTA STRAIN/LOCKDOWNS

AFGHANISTAN

It will not be long before Kabul falls to the Taliban

(zerohedge)

Rockets Target Kabul Presidential Palace As US Afghan Draw Down Enters Final Days

 
WEDNESDAY, JUL 21, 2021 – 07:00 PM

Amid the US troop exit which is set to be ‘complete’ by August 31, based on Biden’s previously expressed timetable for withdrawal, Afghanistan’s presidential palace is already coming under rocket fire in what could be the early beginnings of a near-future Kabul offensive.

At least three rockets hit near the presidential palace on Tuesday shortly before Afghan President Ashraf Ghani was to give an address to mark the major Muslim holiday of Eid al-Adha,” The Associated Press reports. Later the Islamic State claimed responsibility for the attack through one of its regional propaganda channels.

A vehicle near the scene was completely destroyed, and despite there being no reported injuries, Afghan police are alarmed at how deeply inside a secured part of the city the attackers reached. “The palace is in the middle of a so-called Green Zone that is fortified with giant cement blast walls and barbed wire, and streets near the palace have long been closed off,” AP notes.

 

Near the site of attack, via AP

There’s long been concern that the Taliban could soon be close enough to Kabul to initiate an offensive on the capital. US intelligence previously predicted that the national government could collapse, with Kabul potentially overrun within six months of the US forces withdrawal.

Earlier this month President Biden declared with US troop exit more than 95% complete, but at the same time the Taliban has gobbled up territory at lighting pace. Referencing the ongoing onslaught in various parts of the country, Afghan President Ashraf Ghani said during a speech marking a major Muslim holiday: “The Taliban have no intention and willingness for peace.” He said further, “We have proven that we have the intention, the willingness and have sacrificed for peace.”

On Wednesday Gen. Mark Milley, chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, held out hope that Afghan forces will eventually push back the Taliban. Speaking at a Pentagon press briefing, he said, “I don’t think the end game is yet written,” and specified that “A negative outcome, a Taliban automatic takeover, is not a foregone conclusion.”

He suggested that large gains in terms of physical territory taken does not equate to holding high population areas. His remarks struck a rare tone of optimist, as Politico relates of his words:

Milley defended the strategy of the Afghan national security forces, who he said are consolidating to protect the major population centers, where most Afghan civilians are located.

He contested the narrative that “the Taliban is winning,” saying the group is “propagating an inevitable victory” and “dominating the airwaves.”

While “strategic momentum appears to be with the Taliban” right now, a lot could happen over the rest of the summer”, Milley said.

“We’re going to find out, the levels of violence, does it go up, does it stay the same, there’s the possibility of negotiated outcome still out there, there’s the possibility of a Taliban takeover [and] any other number of scenarios,” Milley said.

But the fact that insurgents are landing missiles in or near the high-secure Afghan presidential complex in Kabul doesn’t bode well for the near future. 

The US is keeping some 650 security personnel in Kabul to protect the sprawling US embassy, but the question of air support to Afghan national forces who come under Taliban attack still remains an unsettled question.

END

ARGENTINA

Record droughts are now plaguing Argentina.  The Parana river is at 77 year lows

(zerohedge)

Record Droughts Plague Argentina As Parana River Hits 77-Year Low

 
WEDNESDAY, JUL 21, 2021 – 09:00 PM

Record droughts plague Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, and Paraguay, threaten crops, water reserves, and economic recovery. 

Concentrating on Argentina, water levels on the Parana River are at 77 years lows, according to Reuters. The river is a major transport route for agricultural exports and a source of drinking water, irrigation, and energy. 

“Water levels in the Parana are at the lowest level since 1944, which requires a commitment from everyone to attend and act preventively and responsibly against this situation,” the Government of Argentina said. 

About 80% of the country’s farm exports flow from ports along the Parana River. If shipping vessels can’t traverse the waterway, then farm goods would be landlocked. 

The top hemispheric factor contributing to drought conditions in South America is summer 2020 La Nina. It managed to push cold water in the eastern Pacific Ocean and reduced precipitation across the region. 

Droughts threaten to damage crop yields in South American economies reeling from the virus pandemic and exacerbate the global food shortage pushing food prices higher. 

S&P Global Platts expands more on the drought and impacts on the global food supply: 

  • Brazil — the second-largest corn exporter in the world — suffered severe drought during most of the corn-growing months and in addition to that, the southern part of the country was affected by frost toward the end of June, which exacerbated corn yield losses.
  • Persisting drought conditions in Brazil have trickled down to Argentina through the Parana river basin. Rainfall remained low across northern Argentina in recent months, where most agricultural activities are concentrated.

Days ago, Argentina announced a $10.4 million relief fund to mitigate the impact of the drought. 

S&P Global Platts also makes sense of the wild weather worldwide, contributing not to climate change but rather La Nina: 

The latest forecast by the US Climate Prediction Center said La Nina will potentially emerge during September-November and last through the 2021-22 winter, with a 66% chance during November-January.

The La Nina phenomenon, which is an occasional but natural cooling of the equatorial Pacific, is typically associated with above-normal rainfall in Southeast Asia, South Africa, India, and Australia, and drier weather in Argentina, Europe, Brazil, and the southern US.

This all means that inflation is not “transitory” as the Federal Reserve and all their muppets have tried to convince the world – instead, it’ll be sticking around for some time as food prices will remain elevated. 

end

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings THURSDAY  morning 7:30 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1795 UP .0002 /EUROPE BOURSES /ALL GREEN 

USA/ YEN 110.22  DOWN  0.030 /NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.3754  UP   0.0042  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/

USA/CAN 1.2560  DOWN .00012  (  12 BASIS PT RISE)

 

Early THURSDAY morning in Europe, the Euro IS UP BY 2 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.1795 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 12.07 PTS OR 0.34%

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 499.26 PTS OR 1.83%

 

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 1.03% // EUROPEAN BOURSES OPENED ALL GREEN 

 

Trading from Europe and ASIA

EUROPEAN BOURSES CLOSED ALL GREEN 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG  CLOSED DOWN 34.67 PTS OR 0.13% 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 25.87  PTS OR 0.73% 

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP 1.03%

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1797.10.00

silver:$25.06-

Early THURSDAY morning USA 10 year bond yr: 1.297% !!! UP 1 IN POINTS from WEDNESDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

The 30 yr bond yield 1.944 DOWN 1  IN BASIS POINTS from WEDNESDAY night.

USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 92.78 UP 2 CENT(S) from WEDNESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers THURSDAY MORNING

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And now your closing  THURSDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.20% DOWN 5  in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.016%  UP 0/10   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.23%//  DOWN 5  in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:  0.65  DOWN 4   points in basis points yield from yesterday./

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 41 points higher than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.42% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.07% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR  THURSDAY

Closing currency crosses for THURSDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1768  DOWN    0.0026 or 26 basis points

USA/Japan: 110.111  DOWN .138 OR YEN UP 14  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3747 UP .0035 UP 35   BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 8 basis points to 1.2579

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The USA/Yuan,  CNY: closed    ON SHORE  (CLOSED UP).. 6.4707 

 

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN UP)..6.4759

TURKISH LIRA:  8.57  EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.016%

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 6 IN basis points from WEDNESDAY at 1.237 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 1.886 DOWN 7 in basis points on the day

 

Your closing USA dollar index, 92.86  UP 10  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for THURSDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 29.98 PTS OR 0.43% 

 

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 92,04 PTS OR 0.60% 

 

Paris CAC CLOSED UP 17.11  PTS OR  0.26% 

 

Spain IBEX CLOSED  UP 54.80  PTS OR  0.64%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 129.49 PTS OR 0.53% 

 

WTI Oil price; 70.12 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 72.04 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE RISES:    73.91  THE CROSS  LOWER BY 0.10 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE HIGHER BY 10 BASIS PTS)

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.42 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM : 71.79//

BRENT :  73.64

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 1.2590..DOWN 3 basis points…

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 1.900  DOWN 4 basis points..

EURO/USA 1.1767 DOWN 0.0025   ( 25 BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:110.16 UP .087 ( YEN DOWN 9 BASIS POINTS/..

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 92.82  UP 7  cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.3765  UP 54  POINTS

the Turkish lira close: 8.57  DOWN 1 BASIS PTS

the Russian rouble 73.67   UP 0.30 Roubles against the uSA dollar. (UP 30 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.2566 UP 6 BASIS pts

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.423%

The Dow closed UP 25.35 POINTS OR 0.07%

NASDAQ closed UP 97.53 POINTS OR 0.66%

VOLATILITY INDEX:  17.87 CLOSED DOWN  0.04

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 0.137%//libor dropping like a stone

USA trading day in Graph Form

Small Caps Slammed As ‘Short Squeeze’ Ammo Dries Up, Bonds & Bitcoin Bid

 
THURSDAY, JUL 22, 2021 – 04:00 PM

As investors continue to pile into Big-Tech…

Small Caps were hammered today with only Nasdaq making any decent gains…

…and remarkably it had some sense to it as their outperformance over the week erased relative to Nasdaq…

Once again, money flow decoupled from the equity market’s rally as it extended…

As short-squeeze ammo appeared to dry up for this pump…

Source: Bloomberg

The rebound in “reopening” stocks relative to stay-at-home stalled today…

Source: Bloomberg

Cyclicals continued their post-Monday outperformance of Defensives…

Source: Bloomberg

Despite all major equity indices being higher this week, Treasury yields are also lower on the week after today’s rally (with the belly leading)…

Source: Bloomberg

Bonds were bid today after 10Y tagged unchanged for the week and reversed…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar chopped around today end marginally lower (rebounding after tagging unchanged on the week)…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin extended its gains from yesterday, testing $32.500 intraday…

Source: Bloomberg

Lumber prices rebounded further today as concerns mount that wildfires in Canada and the Western US will snarl production and supply chain routes…

Source: Bloomberg

Oil prices extended their rebound today with WTI topping $72 intraday…

Gold ended higher today after yet another unsuccessful test below $1800…

Finally, as we noted earlier, with the S&P at record highs, the last time breadth was this week was the peak of the dotcom boom in 1999…

Source: Bloomberg

a)Market trading/this AFTERNOON/USA/

 
ii) Market data
States cut off emergency aid to citizens and thus the total number of Americans on the dole plunges by 1.2 million Americans
(zerohedge)

Total Number Of Americans On The Dole Plunges By 1.2 Million As States Cut Off Emergency Aid

 
THURSDAY, JUL 22, 2021 – 08:37 AM

This was not supposed to happen.

Initial jobless claims jumped significantly last week as 419,000 Americans filed for jobless benefits for the first time (well above the prior week’s 368k and expectations of a 350k print)…

Source: Bloomberg

Michigan and Texas saw the biggest jump in claims while New York and Oklahoma saw the best improvement…

‘Traditional’ continuing claims were basically unchanged over the prior week’s revision.

There is some good news though, the total number of claims plunged by over 1.2 million last week (driven by a plunge in pandemic specific aid as states began shutting off the handouts)…

But, we note that overall, there remains over 12.5 million Americans on some form of government dole…

Source: Bloomberg

For context, that compares to the less than 2 million pre-pandemic-lockdowns.

end

Figures!

Jobless Claims Are Plunging In Republican States, Flat In Democrat States

 
THURSDAY, JUL 22, 2021 – 10:57 AM

Two months ago, when we observed that with 23 – all republican – states announcing at least some form of early reduction in pandemic-related unemployment insurance benefits ahead of the September expiration at the federal level…

… in hopes of unclogging labor supply and easing the unprecedented labor shortage gripping America which has manifested in record numbers of job openings which nobody wants due to Uncle Sam’s generous weekly benefits…

…  we said that “since Democrats will likely not end UI benefits any time soon – or ever, if they could –  this sets up the US economy to become an epic real-time economic experiment, one where everyone can keep track of the unemployment across in Red states (most of which have ended their UI benefits), and blue states where claims will keep potential workers at home, pressuring unemployment rates.”

Well, one month ago the early verdict was in and as Morgan Stanley found at the end of June, not only were Republican states right all along to end benefits early, but that the primary – and biggest – reason for the unprecedented shortage in workers has been Joe BIden’s catastrophic socialist policy of having the government match or even surpass what the private sector is paying, to wit:

… the initial jobless claims and continuing jobless claims are declining faster in these 10 states, relative to the rest of the US (see Exhibit 17 and Exhibit 18), suggesting that an end of these benefits over the coming weeks in all other states could prove to be an important tailwind for labor supply,and ultimately higher payrolls.

Yes, Morgan Stanley we agree: the end of ridiculous, socialist policies will certainly be a much welcome tailwind not only for labor supply and higher payrolls, but a much more stable society.

It’s not just Morgan Stanley. On Sunday, the WSJ picked up on this and reported that “the number of unemployment-benefit recipients is falling at a faster rate in Missouri and 21 other states canceling enhanced and extended payments this month, suggesting that ending the aid could push more people to take jobs.”

The number of workers paid benefits through regular state programs fell 13.8% by the week ended June 12 from mid-May—when many governors announced changes—in states saying that benefits would end in June, according to an analysis by Jefferies LLC economists. That compares with a 10% decline in states ending benefits in July, and a 5.7% decrease in states ending benefits in September. Workers on state programs would lose the $300 weekly federal enhancement but could continuing receiving the state benefits.

Jefferies also found somewhat larger decreases in the number of people receiving benefits through pandemic programs in states curtailing benefits, though the data lags behind by an additional week. In many cases, those recipients will be cut off entirely when their state ends participation in the federal programs.

“You’re starting to see a response to these programs ending,” said Aneta Markowska, Jefferies’ chief financial economist. In recent months “employers were having to compete with the government handing out money, and that makes it very hard to attract workers.”

And here is just how fast things will turn around once people’s welfare is cut:

Then a few weeks ago, things began to change at its Missouri locations. At one property, seven people came to a job fair, which Ms. Eigelberger took as a positive sign. Then, two weeks ago, the Element St. Louis Midtown hotel had a breakthrough with 40 job seekers, she said.

“It’s crazy how quickly” things seem to be ramping up, she said, noting that workers in other states where Midas operates and the federal benefits are still in place appear reluctant to re-enter the workforce.

The hotel had 11 openings, including housekeeping, front desk and food-service jobs, Ms. Eigelberger said. It offered positions to nine job seekers at the fair, and all of them arrived for their first day of work. Several of the new hires had been out of work for at least six months.

* * *

So fast forward to today’s latest initial jobless claims report. which wrong-footed the market with a misleading headline, which found that in the latest week, the number of initial claims recipients jumped by 419K, far more than the 350K expected, with increases in some auto-producing states potentially related to factory retooling.

But the real story is what was below the headline: according to the DOL, the total number of claimants collapsed by 1.263 million, as over 1.1 million emergency pandemic claims ended.

But the kicker in today’s report was looking at the data at the state level, which confirmed what we had known all along: as Goldman writes, below, continued claims in regular state programs diverged further between states that are and are not ending benefits ahead of their statutory expiration in September in the week ending July 10. In other words, while jobless claims – both initial and continuing – are tumbling in Republican states, helping to rapidly renormalize the labor market,  they have barely budged in Democrat states.

Of course, in retrospect this should hardly be a shock: after all paying people not to work means that – gasp – they will sit on their ass and not work. What is idiotic and completely unexplainable is why a government would pull such a policy straight out of USSR central planning in “hopes” of boosting wages by creating a labor shortage when in reality all it does is create nothing but worker and wage chaos and resentment among those who vow to never work again and instead choose to sue the their state rather than go back to the labor market such as Sharon Singer-Mann whose story we profiled recently.

And once done contemplating the dumpster fire that the economy is in many if not all blue states, consider this: once Federal benefits run out and millions of workers flood back into the labor market, what happens to not just their wages but to everyone else’s wages as companies that have been hammered on their gross profit not only the fat but also muscle. Just how long before the current inflationary burst turns into all-out stagflation.

Existing USA home sales disappoint in June due to high home prices.

(zerohedge)

Existing Home Sales Disappoint In June As Prices Hit Record Highs

 
 
THURSDAY, JUL 22, 2021 – 10:06 AM

Having fallen for four straight months, analysts expected a modest 1.7% MoM rebound in June’s existing home sales (despite tumbling mortgage apps and crashing homebuyer sentiment?). They were right but the print disappointed, rising just 1.4% MoM, and notably weaker than that given the downward revision in May to -1.2% MoM from -0.9% MoM

Source: Bloomberg

The relative shift leaves existing home sales unchanged from April…

Source: Bloomberg

Notably, “investors” made up a far bigger chunk of buyers than last month (14% vs 9% in May).

Median home price rose 23.4% from last year to $363,300, an all-time high

Source: Bloomberg

“At a broad level, home prices are in no danger of a decline due to tight inventory conditions, but I do expect prices to appreciate at a slower pace by the end of the year,” Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, said in a statement.

Supply in June rose very marginally from 2.5 months to 2.6 months.

Finally, we note that while housing data has been serially disappointing for months, homebuilder stocks have soared…

Source: Bloomberg

Of course, while homebuilder sentiment slipped to an 11-month low, it remains in a vapid reality of its own relative to their customers…

Source: Bloomberg

But, hey, start talking about talking about tapering Jay!

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

 

USA COVID//VACCINE UPDATE

END 

 
USA//FOOD SHORTAGES//INFLATION WATCH
Biden who lacks any semblance of brain matter, downplays inflation and now predicts businesses will be in a bind over labour shortages.
(zerohedge)

Biden Downplays Inflation, Predicts Businesses Will Be In ‘Bind’ Over Labor Shortages, Then Has Brain Freeze

 
THURSDAY, JUL 22, 2021 – 10:16 AM

President Joe Biden waved off long-term inflation concerns on Wednesday, telling a CNN town hall in Cincinnati that it won’t persist as the economy emerges from the pandemic.

There will be near-term inflation” because the economy is recovering, he said, adding that ‘most economists’ think “it’s highly unlikely that it’s going to be long-term inflation that’s going to get out of hand.”

He then cautioned restaurant owners and others in the hospitality sector that recovery may not be swift – telling one restaurant owner that he may be “in a bind for a while” because workers are seeking better wages and working conditions, according to Bloomberg.

“It really is a matter of people deciding now that they have opportunities to do other things,” he said, adding “People are looking to make more money and to bargain.”

Inflation has become a political liability for the White House in recent weeks. The U.S. experienced the largest surge in consumer prices in more than 12 years last month, with a Labor Department gauge rising 5.4% compared to one year ago.

Inflation is driving the cost of everything through the roof,” Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky said at a news conference Wednesday opposing Democratic calls for Biden’s long-term social spending plan. –Bloomberg

Republicans, meanwhile, largely blame Biden and Democrats for the labor shortages at restaurants and other low-wage businesses because overly-generous pandemic stimulus has removed incentives to get back to work. Biden, in response, suggests these low-margin businesses should simply pay people more – calling rising wages a “feature’ of his economic plans.

Job openings continue to hit record highs despite elevated unemployment. According to the report, the hotel and restaurant industries had 1.25 million vacant jobs in May, up from 807,000 in February 2020.

“A lot of people who work as waiters and waitresses decided that they don’t want to do that anymore because there’s other opportunities and higher wages, because there’s a lot of openings now and jobs and people are beginning to move,” said Biden.

Infrastructure, Vaccinations

Biden also expressed confidence that he can still secure the passage of a $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure package despite GOP lawmakers blocking its first congressional vote on Wednesday – which Biden called “irrelevant.”

“It’s necessary, I really mean it. It’s going to not only increase job opportunities but increase commerce. It’s a good thing and I think we’re going to get it done,” he said.

As the Financial Times notes, “Although US growth and job creation have jumped since Biden took office in January, the economic outlook has been clouded by the resurgence of coronavirus because of the rapid spread of the contagious Delta variant as well as an unnerving rise in inflation.”

Biden also pushed vaccinations, which have slowed in the United States as cases nudge higher. He said they would receive final approval from the Food and Drug Administration soon, and would be available for children under the age of 12.

“We have a pandemic for those who haven’t gotten the vaccination. It’s that basic, that simple,” he said. “If you’re vaccinated, you’re not going to be hospitalizedYou’re not going to be in an ICU unit. And you are not going to die.

Except 40% of UK hospital admissions are those who have been vaccinated, while Israel has had even higher numbers, and the most vaccinated countries are experiencing COVID case spikes vs. the least-vaccinated. Meanwhile, over 6,000 people have officially died shortly after receiving the vaccine, according to the CDC.

Biden had an awkward brain freeze during the vaccine Q&A.

Filibuster

Biden slammed Republican legislators over voting integrity legislation, calling them “Jim Crow on steroids,” however he maintained his support for the legislative filibuster.

“There’s no reason to protect it other than you’re going to throw the entire Congress into chaos and nothing will get done,” adding “Nothing at all will get done.” He followed up by saying that there was ‘too much at stake’ to risk that level of ‘chaos’ that a filibuster fight would ignite. 

end

Warning: Grocery prices could rise by 10 to 14% by October 

(Polumbo/Foundation for Economic Education)

Grocery Prices Could Rise 10-14% By October, Grocery Chain CEO Warns

 
THURSDAY, JUL 22, 2021 – 01:29 PM

Authored by Brad Polumbo via The Foundation for Economic Education,

American families are already struggling amid mounting price inflation that’s eating away at their budgets, with higher costs for housing, vehicles, and more. Yet a top CEO is warning that the growing inflation problem facing Americans could get much worse in the coming months. 

The latest June data already show price inflation at a 13-year high, with prices having risen 5.4 percent year-over-year. Proponents of the big-government policies driving much of this increase insist the uptick in prices is only temporary. But billionaire and grocery chain CEO John Catsimatidis just predicted that overall price inflation, for consumer goods generally, will hit a 6 percent annualized rate by October. 

In an interview with Fox Business, the CEO warned that his industry is seeing skyrocketing costs on the supply chain side, and that businesses will have to raise prices for consumers as a result. 

“Food prices are getting higher, and we expect even more increases by October,” Catsimatidis said.

“You have to pass [those extra costs] on [to consumers] or you’re not doing your duty to God, your country, your employees, and your company.”  

While we can’t know for certain, Catsimatidis said rising costs could mean an astounding 10 to 14 percent specific increase in grocery prices by October. That’s truly a shocking amount. But this warning offers more than insight into the grocery industry. It’s a painful reminder of how price inflation hurts everyday Americans.

When we hear terms like “Consumer Price Index” or “expansionary monetary policy,” the conversation surrounding inflation quickly becomes inaccessible for many people, whose eyes understandably glaze over amid discussion of the abstract-seeming phenomenon. But at its core, price inflation is simply a question of our purchasing power being eroded. Because what really matters is not the number on our paychecks, it’s what that number can buy us. 

So, Americans should react to a 6 percent rise in consumer prices just as vociferously as they would react to having their salary cut. It’s essentially the same thing. 

And, as we’ve previously explained here at FEEconsumer price inflation can ultimately be traced back to the policy decisions made by the federal government. So, don’t let them off the hook when your grocery bills start to spiral upwards. Remember whose fault it really is.

*  *  *

iv) Swamp commentaries/

Watch: California Shoplifters Stroll Out Of TJ Maxx With Arms Full Of Merchandise

 
THURSDAY, JUL 22, 2021 – 12:16 AM

In yet another example of California’s decline under Democratic leadership, two men were caught on film casually walking out of a suburban Los Angeles TJ Maxx store while carrying armfulls of merchandise – just seven months after LA District Attorney George Gascón announced his office would no longer prosecute misdemeanor crimes such as shoplifting.

The incident occurred at the TJ Maxx in Granada Hills. Neither man has been charged or arrested, though the LAPD continues to investigate the incident.

They didn’t even run out, they walked out,” said LAPD Sgt. Jerretta Sandoz in a statement to CBS LA. “And so, that’s sending a message that we, the criminals, are winning.”

Sandoz, who serves as vice president of the Los Angeles Police Protective League, said she blames the incident on Prop 47, a 2014 referendum that lowered criminal sentences on crimes such as shoplifting. 

“If they’re caught, they’re probably given the equivalent of a traffic ticket,” she told CBS LA. “So it’s not taken seriously.”

“If you let these criminals think that they can go in and steal merchandise and steal things, what happens when someone tries to stop them,” Sandoz added. –Fox News

Recall that Gascón is the same DA who in April dissolved or downsized the city’s hardcore gangs and narcotics units ahead of a spike in homicides to 13-year highs – for which LA County Sheriff Alex Villanueva directly blames him.

The video illustrates the latest in a spate of shoplifting across the state. In San Francisco, business owners and security officials are decrying the “lawlessness” in the city caused by shoplifters.

“This is really bad. I’ve been in the Bay area 20 years, I’ve never seen this,” a local security guard, J.C. Hernandez, told Fox News, adding “It’s just lawlessness … people are just openly coming in and stealing stuff.”

END

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories./ of the day

Jay Powell has broad support among top Biden aides for new Fed term (overt signal to markets)
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-21/powell-has-broad-support-among-top-biden-aides-for-new-fed-term

The purposely leaked news of a Powell reappointment strongly suggests that Powell has agreed to act in accordance with Team Biden’s desires.  This implies no tapering, no tightening, no rocking the boat in coming months.  The only question is if Jerome will still play nice after his reappointment in February.

Republicans Block Infrastructure Bill but Talks to Continue
Negotiators say they expect to make significant progress by Monday on details of the plan
  The vote failed, with 49 in favor and 51 against, short of the 60 needed to open debate. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D., N.Y.) switched his vote to no, which he said gave him the option to bring the bill up again… https://www.wsj.com/articles/republicans-set-to-block-infrastructure-debate-as-details-remain-unresolved-11626878408
China is buying up American farms. Washington wants to crack down.
Bipartisan pressure is building to stop foreign nationals from purchasing American farm operations and receiving taxpayer subsidies…   https://www.politico.com/news/2021/07/19/china-buying-us-farms-foreign-purchase-499893

WaPo’s Josh Rogin: ‘Fauci was wrong’ about denying NIH funded Wuhan ‘gain of function’ coronavirus research – “Hey guys, [Rand Paul] was right and Fauci was wrong,” he tweeted. “The NIH was funding gain of function research in Wuhan but NIH pretended it didn’t meet their “gain of function” definition to avoid their own oversight mechanism. SorryNotSorry if that doesn’t fit your favorite narrative…  https://t.co/j5VrHNGS0B

Sen Rand Paul says he’s asking DOJ for ‘a criminal referral’ into Fauci
Paul claims Fauci lied to Congress about gain-of-research funding.
https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/564112-sen-rand-paul-says-hes-asking-doj-for-a-criminal-referral-into

@EmeraldRobinson: Our grandkids are going to laugh at us and say: “So everyone took medical advice about the coronavirus which came from the Wuhan Virology Lab from the same guy who gave coronavirus grant money to the Wuhan Virology Lab?”

@JackPosobiec: If Donald Trump was caught funding chimeric superviruses in a Russian bioweapons lab it would be the top story in the world and the DOJ would perp-walked every single person involved

Trafalgar Group poll shows Americans oppose mandatory COVID vaccination [71.4 to 21.8]
(Trafalgar was among the most accurate pollsters in 2016 and 2020)
https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/COSA-National-Vaccines-Full-Report.pdf

Mitch McConnell warns of lockdowns if COVID vaccine rates don’t increase (Mitch out of touch)
https://nypost.com/2021/07/21/mitch-mcconnell-urges-covid-19-vaccines-warns-of-lockdowns/

“The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule.” — H. L. Mencken

Doctor says: Stop the panic over the Delta variant
The COVID-19 death rate per 100,000 population is lower than it was three weeks ago… First, the Delta variant does not appear to be especially deadly. Cases are no more likely to be hospitalized or die than with other variants… Second, the most vulnerable people are largely protected.//
https://nypost.com/2021/07/20/doctor-says-stop-the-panic-over-the-delta-variant/

Biden doing Elmer Fudd at CNN townhall last night: https://twitter.com/RitaPanahi/status/1418003256689664002

@CurtisHouck: Sixth question of CNN’s #BidenTownhall came from a Republican restauranteur who’s been struggling to find enough employees, so Biden proceeds to mock him and chastise him as somehow ungrateful because the government “kept you open” and people don’t like your profession anymore.  This went on for a few minutes as Biden continued to trash the restaurant industry as a place where fewer and fewer people want to work because they aren’t paid enough, telling John Lanni that he better start paying employees at least $15/hr (pre-tip) or else… https://twitter.com/CurtisHouck/status/1418011124134465537
https://twitter.com/CurtisHouck/status/1418014256386162688

@JackPosobiec: Biden gets asked about inflation, his answer is incoherent jumble jamble
https://twitter.com/JackPosobiec/status/1418028460317020170

@ggreenwald: Is there really anyone willing to step forward with a straight face and say there’s nothing wrong here?  (The Big Guy was brutal last night!)

@JackPosobiec: I’m told the West Wing turned off the livestream of the townhall. Can’t take it anymore

McCarthy pulls picks for select Jan. 6 committee after Pelosi rejects two, Banks and Jordan, report
https://justthenews.com/government/congress/mccarthy-pulls-picks-select-jan-6-committee-after-pelosi-rejects-two-banks-and

@FOXLA: House Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy says the GOP won’t participate in a House investigation of the Jan. 6 riots if Democrats won’t accept the members he appointed

#3 GOP House Leader @EliseStefanik: This is what Pelosi is so afraid of.  Because SHE as Speaker of the House is responsible for not securing the Capitol on 1/6. That is the truth. And she is scared of the facts or even basic questions.   This is the PEOPLE’s House, and Pelosi is destroying it.

@MZHemingway: We said all along this was a purely partisan exercise by Democrats. Nancy Pelosi’s rejection of me and Jim Jordan shows once again she is most partisan figure in America today. American people deserve truth. Unfortunately, Spkr. Pelosi is afraid of the facts.” — Rep. Jim Banks
   GOP Rep Stefanik on “Nancy Pelosi, the Radical Authoritarian Speaker of the House”: “the Pelosi partisan Jan 6th commission was never about investigating facts, was only ever about Pelosi’s radical politics and the Left’s endless obsession with crushing any discussion or debate.  This commission is an absolute sham and has been a disgrace from the beginning; no amount of drooling excuses from the mainstream media will change that.  What is Nancy Pelosi so afraid of? She is afraid of the American people finding out the truth that her failed leadership and the gross mismanagement of the U.S. Capitol led to the tragic events that day…

Fox’s @ChadPergram: McCarthy: Pelosi has taken the unprecedented step of rejecting the minority’s picks for the select committee…it’s an egregious breach of power…Pelosi has broken this institution… Unless Speaker Pelosi reverses course that seats all five Republicans, we will not participate…Why did they know on December 14?..we will run our own investigation.

Two-Thirds of Voters Want Congress to Investigate 2020 Riots (21% oppose) https://t.co/IzJ411XbXV

FBI agent at center of Whitmer kidnap probe assaulted wife after swingers’ party, authorities say https://t.co/a1WXv73XsA

@JackPosobiec: The lead FBI agent on the October 2020 Whitmer sting operation nearly beat his wife to death after taking her to a swinger party… The FBI’s Whitmer sting went down in October 2020 but the DOJ said they couldn’t investigate Hunter Biden bc it might interfere with the election.  Are you paying attention yet?

Ex-Senate investigator @seanmdav: Just like what happened with the Bundy family in Oregon, we’ll eventually learn that the Capitol riots were initiated by the FBI.The corrupt FBI creates crimes to use against its political enemies and ignores crimes committed by its political allies.

Biden will push Ukraine’s president to ‘tackle corruption’ when he visits White House
(Not a parody!)  [What about Hunter & Burisma?]  https://t.co/5FZHDCevme

Lobbyist Jeff Ricchetti, Brother of Senior Biden Aide, Sees Bump in Fees, Clients (10% for The Big Guy?) Ricchetti… collected $1.7 million in fees for first half of year, four times more than in same period in 2020  https://www.wsj.com/articles/lobbyist-jeff-ricchetti-brother-of-senior-biden-aide-sees-bump-in-fees-clients-11626825916

@BookerSparticus: I am just trying to wrap my Neanderthal head around some facts. Maybe you can help a caveman. Biden lost first 3 primaries and was broke.
Harris dropped out before primaries, running at 2% in poles.
Clyburn endorses Biden in SC, everyone but Bernie drops out.  81 Million votes

END

Let us close out Thursday’s commentary with this great interview of David Stockman with Greg Hunter

Reset Means Crash of Epic Proportions – David Stockman (Revised)

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com (Revised) 

Reagan White House Budget Director and best-selling author David Stockman says, “This is not the time to be invested in the markets . . . . A reset is just a pleasant name or a clinical name for a crash of epic proportions, which we will have because the markets are so inflated.  There are trillions of dollars that are at risk.  To put a dimension on this thing or a way of sizing this, is we have a $60 trillion bubble on the balance sheets of 130 million people in American society, but especially in the top 5% to 10% that own a huge share of the assets. . . . I have no thought about how big the correction will be, but if it were just back to the norm . . . it would be a $60 trillion correction, and that is a pretty big hole in the bucket.  If $60 trillion disappears (out of the U.S. economy), it changes everything.  It turns the financial system and economic reality upside down.”

How did things get so perilous in the economy?  Stockman says look no further than Washington D.C. and the Fed.  Stockman explains, “When central banks start to inflate like crazy, you first inflate financial assets.  It eventually works its way into goods and services, and that’s where we are now.  You get the second stage of inflation as well.  There has never been a small group of government officials, unelected at that, who have done more damage, more wanton harm to the economy and to the lives of ordinary people than (Fed Head) Powell and his merry band of mad money printers.  This is really an outrage.  I say these people are damn near criminally incompetent given what they say about the world, which is totally wrong, given what they’re doing, this massive money printing, which is totally unjustified. . .”

Stockman thinks there will be a “50% to 75% correction in the financial markets.”  Stockman contends, “The only asset that has held its value over time is gold.”  Stockman recommends everybody should be holding some gold as insurance against the coming “reset.”

In closing, Stockman warns, “Preserve your assets.  This is the last moment in time to be greedy or aggressive or to be overly optimistic about the future.  The future is being driven by the policy makers . . . . The whole system is being run by Washington.  The Federal Reserve totally dominates the financial markets. . . . The Fed has printed $6.5 billion a day for the past 688 days. . . . They have printed more money in the last 688 days than the Fed did in the first century of its existence.”

Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with best-selling author and financial expert David Stockman 7.21.21.  (There is much more in the 45 minute interview.)

Reset Means Crash of Epic Proportions – David Stockman (Revised)

You can get a daily dose of Mr. Stockman on DavidStockmansContraCorner.com, but you will need to click here to subscribe.

end

See you Friday night!

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