AUGUST 13/GOLD UP $26.20 TO $1776.60//SILVER UP 59 CENTS TO $23.74//HUGE QUEUE JUMP OF 2 TONNES: NEW GOLD STANDING COMEX; 80.03 TONNES//SILVER OZ STANDING: 10.43 MILLION OZ//COVID 19 UPDATES//VACCINE UPDATES//LAMBDA STRAIN ALREADY FLOURISHING IN SOUTH AMERICAN AND WILL COME TO THE STATES//JOURNAL OF INFECTIONS DISCUSS THE ONCOMING A.D.E.//UK ‘S KFC REPORTS ON MENU ITEM SHORTAGES//TALIBAN CLOSING IN ON KABUL AFTER TAKING KANDAHAR: THE TALIBAN ARE 30 MILES FROM KABUL// USA DATA; PPI RED HOTE/IMPORT AND EXPORT PRICE RED HOT// USA CONSUMER SENTIMENT COLLAPSES//SUPPLY CHAIN DISRUPTION HUGE IN BOTH CHINA AND USA WITH MAJOR PORT CLOSINGS DUE TO COVID//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

 

GOLD:$1776.60  UP $26.20  The quote is London spot price

Silver:$23.74 UP  59  CENTS  London spot price ( cash market)

 
 
 
 

Closing access prices:  London spot

i)Gold : $1779.80 LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

ii)SILVER:  $23.74//LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

 
 

PLATINUM AND PALLADIUM PRICES BY GOLD-EAGLE (MORE ACCURATE)

 

 

PLATINUM  $1035.96  UP $8.46

PALLADIUM: $2642.65  up $17.24  PER OZ.

 

END

Editorial of The New York Sun | February 1, 2021

end

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COMEX DETAILS//NOTICES FILED

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

receiving today  710/742

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: AUGUST 2021 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,749.000000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 08/12/2021 DELIVERY DATE: 08/16/2021
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
099 H DB AG 115
118 C MACQUARIE FUT 10
118 H MACQUARIE FUT 288
661 C JP MORGAN 709
661 H JP MORGAN 1
709 C BARCLAYS 337
800 C MAREX SPEC 2 15
905 C ADM 7
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 742 742
MONTH TO DATE: 25,367

 

issued:  o

Goldman Sachs stopped: 0

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  AUGUST. CONTRACT: 742 NOTICE(S) FOR 74,200 OZ  (2.307 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR THIS MONTH:  25,367 FOR 2,536,700 OZ  (78.902 TONNES)

 

SILVER//AUG CONTRACT

14 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 70,000  OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month 1939  :  for 9,695,000  oz

 

BITCOIN MORNING QUOTE  $46,434 UP 2013  DOLLARS

 

BITCOIN AFTERNOON QUOTE.:$47,648 UP 3227  DOLLARS 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

GLD AND SLV INVENTORIES:

GLD AND SLV INVENTORIES:

Gold

WITH GOLD UP $26.20 AND NO PHYSICAL TO BE FOUND ANYWHERE:

NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: 

 

WITH RESPECT TO GLD WITHDRAWALS:  (OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS)

 

GOLD IS “RETURNED” TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHEN CALLING IN THEIR LEASES: THE GOLD NEVER LEAVES THE BANK OF ENGLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BANK IS PROTECTING ITSELF IN CASE OF COMMERCIAL FAILURE

THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD!!

GLD  1023.54 TONNES OF GOLD//

Silver

AND WITH NO SILVER AROUND  TODAY: WITH SILVER UP 59 CENTS

A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A PAPER DEPOSIST OF 2.038 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV

WITH REGARD TO SILVER WITHDRAWALS FROM THE SLV:

THE SILVER WITHRAWALS ARE ACTUALLY “RETURNED” TO JPM, AS JPMORGAN CALLS IN ITS LEASES WITH THE SLV FUND.  (THE STORY IS THE SAME AS THE BANK OF ENGLAND’S GOLD). THE SILVER NEVER LEAVES JPMORGAN’S VAULT. THEY ARE CALLING IN THEIR LEASES FOR FEAR OF SOLVENCY ISSUES.

INVENTORY RESTS AT: 

 

555.466  MILLION OZ./SLV

xxxxx

GLD closing price//NYSE 166.39 UP $2.25 OR 1.43%

XXXXXXXXXXXXX

SLV closing price NYSE 21.97 UP $.47 OR 2.19%

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

 
 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

THE COMEX OI IN SILVER ROSE BY ANOTHER POWERFUL 3074 CONTRACTS TO 160,651, AND CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020. THE STRONG GAIN IN OI OCCURRED DESPITE OUR  $0.39 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX  ON THURSDAY . IT SEEMS THAT THE GAIN IN COMEX OI IS PRIMARILY DUE TO HUGE BANKER AND ALGO  SHORT COVERING AS OUR BANKER FRIENDS ARE GETTING QUITE SCARED OF BASEL III INITIATED JUNE 28/2021 !// WE HAD SOME REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//.. COUPLED AGAINST A STRONG EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. WE HAVE ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AS TOTAL GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES EQUATES TO 5043 CONTRACTS. (25.21 MILLION OZ)//(DESPITE OUR STRONG LOSS OF 39 CENTS

 

I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL:

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN SILVER TODAY: – 244 CONTRACTS.

 

WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A STRONG  NUMBER OF  COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 1969,, AS WE HAD THE FOLLOWING ISSUANCE:,  JULY 0 AND SEPT 1969 ZERO ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  1969 CONTRACTS. THE BANKERS ARE NOW BEING BITTEN BY THOSE SERIAL FORWARDS (EFP’S CIRCULATING IN LONDON) AS THEY ARE NOW BEING EXERCISED AND COMING BACK TO NEW YORK FOR REDEMPTION OF METAL.  THE COST TO SERVICE THESE SERIAL FORWARDS IS HIGH TO OUR BANKERS  BUT THEY HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO ISSUE A FEW OF THEM! SILVER IS IN BACKWARDATION AND AS SUCH THE DANGER TO OUR BANKERS IS LONDONERS WILL PURCHASE CHEAPER FUTURES METAL OVER HERE AND THEN TAKE DELIVERY.

HISTORY OF SILVER OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR THE PAST 38 MONTHS.

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

2019

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

7.32     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

2.630     MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOV.

20.970   MILLION OZ  FINAL STANDING IN DEC

2020

5.075     MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JAN

1.480    MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN FEB

23.005  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAR 

4.660  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR APRIL

45.220 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAY***(5THHIGHEST RECORDED STANDING FOR SILVER)

2.205  MILLION OF FINAL STANDING FOR JUNE

86.470  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JULY…RECORD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED

6.475 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN AUGUST

55.400 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN SEPT (3RD HIGHEST RECORDED STANDING)

8.900 MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT.

3.950 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN NOV.

46.685 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR DEC. (4TH HIGHEST RECORDED STANDING)

2021

60 MILLION FINAL STANDING FOR JAN 2021

12.020  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR FEB 2021

58.425 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MARCH 2021//2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED

14.935 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR APRIL

36.365 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAY 

14.505MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR JUNE

33.460  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR JULY

10.500 MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING AUGUST

THURSDAY, AGAIN OUR CROOKS USED COPIOUS PAPER TRYING TO LIQUIDATE SILVER’S PRICE …AND THEY WERE

SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN ,(IT FELL BY $0.39) AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE ANY SILVER LONGS WITH THURSDAY’S TRADING.  WE HAD A HUMONGOUS GAIN OF 5043 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES..  THE GAIN WAS  ALSO DUE TO i) HUGE BANKER/ALGO SHORT COVERING// WE ALSO HAD  ii) SOME REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//.    iii)  AN STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) A  STRONG INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 10.005 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY A 70,000  OZ QUEUE JUMP / v)  STRONG COMEX OI GAIN 
.
YOU CAN BET THE FARM THAT OUR BANKERS  ARE DESPERATE TO LIQUIDATE THEIR HUGE SHORT POSITIONS IN SILVER..
 
 

SPREADING OPERATIONS/NOW SWITCHING TO SILVER  (WE  SWITCHED OVER TO SILVER ON AUGUST  2)

FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS:

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED IN SILVER  AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF SEPT.

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

 
 

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

.

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO SILVER AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY. HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST FOR GOLD:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF AUGUST. BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (AUGUST), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

 
 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

 

AUGUST

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY /FOR MONTH OF  AUGUST:

21,320 CONTRACTS (FOR 10 TRADING DAY(S) TOTAL 21,320CONTRACTS) OR 106.600MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 2132 CONTRACTS OR 10.660 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF AUGUST: 106.600  MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON

JAN EFP ACCUMULATION FINAL:  113.735 MILLION OZ

FEB EFP ACCUMULATION FINAL:   208.18 MILLION OZ (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

MAR EFP ACCUMULATION SO FAR: : 103.450 MILLION OZ  (DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//FEARS OF EFP CONTRACTS BEING EXERCISED FOR METAL)

APRIL: 84.730 MILLION OZ  (SILVER IS NOW IN SEVERE BACKWARDATION AND THUS DRAMATICALLY FEWER ISSUANCE OF EFP’S)

MAY: 137.83 MILLION OZ

JUNE:  149.91 MILLION OZ// ISSUANCE RATE NOW SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE THE MONTH OF MAY

JULY:  129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST:  106.600 MILLION OZ (ISSUANCE RATE NOW SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE JULY AND JUNE)

RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 3074 , DESPITE OUR STRONG $0.39 LOSS  IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ///THURSDAY .THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 1969 CONTRACTS WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS.

TODAY WE HAD A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 5287 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES (DESPITE OUR  $0.39 FALL IN PRICE)//THE DOMINANT FEATURE TODAY: HUGE BANKER SHORTCOVERING/  AND WE HAVE A  STRONG INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR AUGUST. (10.005 MILLION OZ),FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 70,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP.

 

THE TALLY//EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

i.e  1969  OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s)TOGETHER WITH A STRONG SIZED INCREASE OF 3074 OI COMEX CONTRACTS.AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND HAPPENED WITH OUR $0.39 FALL IN PRICE OF SILVER/AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $23.15/ THURSDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY. 

WE HAD  14 NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR 70,000 OZ

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018. AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.70//TODAY’S RECORD OF 244,705 WAS SET WITH A PRICE OF: 18.91 (FEB 25/2020)

AND YET, WITH THE SILVER IN BACKWARDATION (INDICATING SCARCITY), WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 
 
 
 

GOLD

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 750 CONTRACTS TO 476,469 _ ,,AND FURTHER FROM OUR NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110. 

 

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: -47 CONTRACTS.

THE SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI CAME DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $1.20///COMEX GOLD TRADING/THURSDAY.AS IN SILVER WE MUST HAVE HAD HUGE BANKER/ALGO SHORT COVERING ACCOMPANYING OUR SMALL SIZED EXCHANGE FOR  PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. WE  HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AS THE TOTAL GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES TOTALLED A SMALL 2794 CONTRACTS..  WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR AUGUST AT 59.200 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS TODAY’S STRONG 36,500 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING 80.03 TONNES.
 
 

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR FALL IN PRICE OF $1.20 WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY’S TRADING

 

WE HAD A VOLUME OF 0    4 -GC CONTRACTS//OPEN INTEREST  0//

WE HAD A SMALL SIZED GAIN OF 2747  OI CONTRACTS (8.544 TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES 

 

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 1997 CONTRACTS:

CONTRACT  AND JULY:  0; AUGUST: 0 & DEC 1997  ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO//TOTAL: 1997 The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 476,469. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EXCHANGE DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 2747  CONTRACTS: 750 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 1997 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 2747 CONTRACTS OR 8.544 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A SMALL SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (1997) ACCOMPANYING THE SMALL SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (750 OI): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES: 2747 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1) SOME BANKER SHORT COVERING/BIS MANIPULATION WITH CONSIDERABLE ALGO SHORT COVERING ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR AUGUST AT 59.194 TONNES FOLLOWED BY A QUEUE JUMP OF 36,500 OZ//NEW STANDING  80.03 TONNES/ 3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION, /// ;4) SMALL SIZED COMEX OI GAIN 5) SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL

 

 
 
 
 
 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2021 INCLUDING TODAY

AUGUST

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST : 45,731, CONTRACTS OR 4,573,100 oz OR 142.24 TONNES (10 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 4573 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 10 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 142.24 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2020, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  142.24/3550 x 100% TONNES  4.00% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO DATE
 
JANUARY: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)
 
FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..
 
MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN///IT SURPASSED JANUARY!!)

 

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   142.24 TONNES INITIAL ISSUANCE.// DRAMATICALLY RISING AGAIN

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, ROSE BY A POWERFUL 3074 CONTRACTS TO 160,651 AND FURTHER FROM TO OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  3 1/4 YEARS AGO.  

EFP ISSUANCE 1969 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

  JULY 0  AND SEPT: 1969ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  1969 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI GAIN OF 3074 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 1969 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,WE OBTAIN A HUMONGOUS SIZED GAIN OF 5043 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES 

 

THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 25.21 MILLION  OZ, OCCURRED DESPITE OUR   $0.39 LOSS IN PRICE. 

 

 

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL..THE EVIDENCE IS CLEAR: HUGE AMOUNTS OF PHYSICAL STANDING FOR BOTH  SILVER AND GOLD .

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Gold

(Peter Schiff, Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,

 
 
 

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)THURSDAY MORNING/WEDNESDAY  NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 8.44  PTS OR 0.24%   //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 126.20 PTS OR 0.48%      /The Nikkei closed DOWN 37.87 PTS OR 0.14%   //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP  0.47%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN TO 6.4803  /Oil DOWN TO 69.01 dollars per barrel for WTI and 71.11 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN   /ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED  DOWN AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.4803. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.4812/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%/

 

 
 
 
3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

NORTH KOREA//USA/OUTLINE

END

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3 C CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

OUTLINE
 

COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 750 CONTRACTS TO 476,469 MOVING CLOSER TO THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020).  AND THIS COMEX INCREASE OCCURRED DESPITE OUR LOSS OF $1.20 IN GOLD PRICING THURSDAY’S COMEX TRADING.WE ALSO HAD A SMALL EFP ISSUANCE (1997 CONTRACTS). …AS THEY WERE PAID HANDSOMELY  NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AND SETTLE FOR CASH.

 

WE NORMALLY HAVE WITNESSED  EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS. IT SEEMS THAT ARE BANKERS FRIENDS ARE EXERCISING EFP’S FROM LONDON AND NOW THEY ARE LOATHE TO ISSUE NEW ONES.  

 

(SEE BELOW)

WE  HAD 0    4 -GC VOLUME//open interest REMAINS AT   0

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW MOVING TO THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A SMALL SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 1997 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  ;: ,  JULY 0 & AUGUST:  & DEC.  1997  & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1997  CONTRACTS 

 

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION,  EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED  THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A SMALL SIZED 2747 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 1997 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A SMALL SIZED COMEX OI OF 750 CONTRACTS.   WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR AUGUST   (80.03),

 HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 6 MONTHS OF 20201:

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB. 113.424 TONNES

JAN: 6.500 TONNES.

 

TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR (JAN- JULY)_: 330.80 TONNNES

 

THE BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT FELL $1.20).,AND THEY WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING ANY LONGS AS THE TOTAL GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES REGISTERED A SMALL 8.544 TONNESACCOMPANYING OUR HUGE GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR AUG. (80.03 TONNES)..I  STRONGLY BELIEVE THAT OUR BANKER FRIENDS ARE GETTING QUITE NERVOUS.  THE HUGE SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI IS DUE TO BANKER SHORT COVERING IN A BIG WAY.  THEY ARE LOOKING OVER THEIR SHOULDERS AND WITNESSING MASSIVE SILVER/GOLD SHORTAGES THAT CANNOT BE COVERED. THEY ARE TRYING TO FLEE IN HASTE “FROM DODGE”.

WE HAD -47  CONTRACTS FROM COMEX TRADES. THESE WERE REMOVED AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT. 

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES :: 2747 CONTRACTS OR 274,700 OR 8.544 TONNES

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT COMMODITY FUTURES OPEN INTEREST SHOULD APPROXIMATE 3% OF TOTAL PRODUCTION.  IN GOLD THE WORLD PRODUCES AROUND 3500 TONNES PER YEAR BUT ONLY 2200 TONNES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE WEST (THUS EXCLUDING RUSSIA, CHINA ETC..WHO KEEP 100% OF THEIR PRODUCT.
 
THUS IN GOLD WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:  476,469 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS X 100 OZ PER CONTRACT = 47.65 MILLION OZ/32,150 OZ PER TONNE =  1482 TONNES

 

THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST REPRESENTS 1482/2200 OR 67.36% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF GOLD.

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX GOLD TODAY:141,712 contracts//    / volume//poor///

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY: 145,600contracts// poor ////  

// //most of our traders have left for London

 

AUGUST 13

/2021

 
INITIAL STANDINGS FOR AUGUST COMEX GOLD
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
10,513.377 OZ
 
 
Brinks
hsbc
includes
 
Brinks 280 kilobars
HSBC: 47 kilobars
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz
nil
OZ
 
 
 
 
 
 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz
 
 
nil
OZ
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
No of oz served (contracts) today
742  notice(s)
74200 OZ
 
2.307 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)
364 contracts
36,400 oz
 
1.132 TONNES
 
 
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
25,367 notices
2,536,700 OZ
78.902 TONNES
 
 
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz
 
 
 
We had 0 deposit into the dealer
 
 
 
 
total deposit: nil   oz 
 

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had  0 deposits into the customer account
 
 
TOTAL CUSTOMER DEPOSITS nil  oz  
 
 
 
 
 
 
We had 2  customer withdrawal….
 
i) out of  Brinks  9002.28 oz 280 kilobars
ii) out of HSBC  1511.097 oz  (47 kilobars
 
 
 
 
 
 
total customer withdrawals  10,513.377  oz      
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

We had 4  kilobar transactions 4 out of  5 transactions)

ADJUSTMENTS  3 // Brinks  all  dealer to customer

i) Brinks 6272.872 oz
ii) Loomis:  3086.496 oz  96 kilobars
iii) Malca:  13,214.061 oz  911 kilobars
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
THE FRONT MONTH OF AUGUST LOST 38 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 1106. We had 403 notices served upon  Thursday, SO WE GAINED ANOTHER WHOPPING 365 CONTRACTS OR 36,500 OZ (1.135 TONNES) WHICH WILL STAND FOR GOLD ON THIS SIDE OF THE ATLANTIC. THE ONSLAUGHT FOR GOLD METAL ON THIS SIDE OF THE ATLANTIC  CONTINUES.
 
 
 
SEPT GAINED 3 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 1495
 
OCTOBER GAINED 14 CONTRACTS UP TO 46,653
.
DEC LOST 476  TO STAND AT 385,743
 

We had 742 notice(s) filed today for 74200  oz

FOR THE AUGUST 2021 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 742  contract(s) of which 1  notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 709 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0  notices received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the AUGUST /2021. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (25,367) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  (AUGUST: 1106 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today  742 x 100 oz per contract equals 2,573,100 OZ OR 80.03TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this active month of AUGUST

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the AUGUST contract month:

No of notices filed so far (25,367) x 100 oz+( 1106)  OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (742} x 100 oz} which equals 2,536,600 oz standing OR 80.03 TONNES in this  active delivery month of AUGUST.

WE GAINED ANOTHER 36500 OZ  OR AN ADDITIONAL 1.13 TONNES WILL SEARCH OUT FOR METAL OVER HERE. 

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING:  80.03 TONNES

 
 

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

427,737.391, oz NOW PLEDGED  march 5/2021/HSBC  13.30 TONNES

229,101.115 PLEDGED  MANFRA 7.12 TONNES

306,347.005, oz  JPM  9.52 TONNES

1,195,064.751 oz pledged June 12/2020 Brinks/37.17 TONNES

84,823.772, oz Pledged August 21/regular account 2.638 tonnes JPMORGAN

54,250.898 oz International Delaware:  1.68 tonnes

169,535.980 oz Malca  5.28 TONNES

total pledged gold:  2,265,738.018. oz                                     71.45 tonnes

 

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES…. WE HAVE 525.83 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS 80.03 tonnes

CALCULATION OF REGISTERED THAT CAN BE SETTLED UPON:

total registered or dealer  18,721,465.868 oz or 582.31 tonnes
 
 
 
total weight of pledged: 2,297,324.933 oz or 71.45 tonnes
 
 
registered gold that can be used to settle upon: 16,424,141.0 (510.85 tonnes) 
 
 
 
 
true registered gold  (total registered – pledged tonnes16,424,141.0 (510.85 tonnes)   
 
 
total eligible gold: 16,596,672.845 oz   (516.22 tonnes)
 
 
 
total registered, pledged  and eligible (customer) gold  35,318,138.713 oz or 1,098.54 tonnes
 (INCLUDES 4 GC GOLD)
 
 

total 4 GC gold:   126.34 tonnes

total gold net of 4 GC:  972.20 tonnes

end

 
 

I have compiled  data with respect to registered (or dealer) gold taken on first day notice for each of the past 24 months

The data begins on first day notice for the May month taken on the last day of July 2018. and it continues to present day.

I then took, how many deliveries were recorded by the CME for each and every month.  I also included for reference the price of gold on first day notice.

The first graph is a logarithmic  graph and the second graph, linear.

You can see the huge explosion of registered gold at the comex along with deliveries.

 
 
THE DATA AND GRAPHS:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
END

AUGUST 13

/2021

And now for the wild silver comex results

INITIAL STANDING FOR SILVER//AUGUST

AUGUST. SILVER COMEX CONTRACT MONTH//INITIAL STANDING

Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
975.500 oz
 
 
Brinks
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
NIL OZ
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
139,243.75 OZ
 
Delaware
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
No of oz served today (contracts)
14
 
CONTRACT(S)
70,000  OZ)
 
No of oz to be served (notices)
161 contracts
 (805,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  1939 contracts

 

9,695,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
 
We had 0 deposit into the dealer
 

total dealer deposits:  nil        oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had  1 deposit into customer account (ELIGIBLE ACCOUNT)

 

i) Into Delaware:  139,243.750 oz
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

JPMorgan now has 186.792 million oz  silver inventory or 51.75% of all official comex silver. (186.8 million/361.279 million

total customer deposits today 139,243.750   oz

we had 1 withdrawal

i) Out of Brinks: 975.500 oz  

 

 
 
 

total withdrawals  975.500        oz

 

JPMorgan moves all of its silver into is customer account.

adjustments: 1
manfra/ dealer to customer:  175,297.260 oz
 

Total dealer(registered) silver: 107.249 million oz

total registered and eligible silver:  361.279 million oz

a net 0.138 million oz enters  the comex silver vaults.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 
 
 
 

THE FRONT MONTH OF AUGUST GAINED 13CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 175. WE HAD 1 NOTICES SERVED ON THURSDAY,SO WE GAINED 14 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 70,000 OZ WILL STAND IN THIS NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST.

 

SEPTEMBER LOST 3391 CONTRACTS DOWN TO  80,374

OCTOBER GAINED 3 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 571

DEC GAINED 6359 CONTRACTS UP TO 70,102

 
NO. OF NOTICES FILED:  14  FOR 70,000 OZ.

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in AUGUST. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at  1939 x 5,000 oz = 9,695,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of AUGUST (175) and the number of notices served upon today 14 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the AUGUST standings for silver for the AUGUST/2021 contract month: 1939 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of AUGUST(175)  – number of notices served upon today (14) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the JULY contract month .equals 10,500,000 oz. ..VERY GOOD FOR AUGUST 

We gained 14 contracts or an additional 70,000 oz will stand for silver at the comex.

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME  59,548 CONTRACTS // volume  poor///

 

FOR YESTERDAY  84,614  ,CONFIRMED VOLUME/ / good

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV  RISES TO -1.83% (AUGUST 13/2021)

SILVER FUND POSITIVE TO NAV

no of oz of physical silver held  JULY 8.2021;  150,926,000  (GAIN OF 6.411 MILION OZ IN A MONTH)

No of oz of physical silver held; MAY 24/2021  144,515,694 OZ

No. of oz of physical silver held:  Sept 20/20: 85,907.3616  Oz

No of oz pf physical silver held: Dec 21/2019:  65,073.570 Oz

During the past 8 months Sprott has added: 58,608.30 Oz

So far this year: 53.8 million oz

2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -0.48% nav   (AUGUST 13)

 

/2021 )

 

3. SPROTT CEF .A   FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA)

NAV $17.92 TRADING 17.37//NEGATIVE  3.09

 

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/(this vehicle is a fraud as there is no gold behind them!)

AUGUST 13/WITH GOLD UP $26.20 TODAY NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1023.54 TONNES

AUGUST 12/ WITH GOLD DOWN $1.20 TODAY NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1023.54 TONNES

AUGUST 11/WITH GOLD UP $21.20 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1023.54 TONNES

AUGUST 10/WITH GOLD UP $5.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.75 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1023.54 TONNES

AUGUST 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $37.10 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1025.29 TONNES

AUGUST 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $44.10 TODAY: TWO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF .36 TONNES TO PAY FOR FEES. ANDLATE IN THE DAY A HUGE 2.32 TONNE WITHDRAWAL//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1025.29 TONNES

AUGUST 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.15 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1027.97 TONNES

AUGUST 4/WITH GOLD UP $.45 TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1027.97 TONNES

AUGUST 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.95 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.75 TONNES FROM THE GLD../INVENTORY RESTS AT 1029.71 TONNES.

AUGUST 2/WITH GOLD UP $4.45 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1031.46 TONNES.

JULY 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $17.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1031.46 TONNES

JULY 29/WITH GOLD UP $29.80 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A HUGE PAPER DEPOSIT OF 5.82 TONNES INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1031.46 TONNES

JULY 28/WITH GOLD UP $1.00 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1025.64 TONNES

JULY 27/WITH GOLD UP 90 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1025.64 TONNES.

JULY 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.65 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1027.35 TONNES.

JULY 23/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.20 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1027.35 TONNES

JULY 22/WITH GOLD UP $2.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1027.38 TONNES

JULY 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.85 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1028.55 TONES/

JULY 20/WITH GOLD UP $2.20 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GDL//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1028.55 TONNES

JULY 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.65 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.82 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1028.55 TONNES.

JULY 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.50 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1034.37 TONNES

July 15/WITH GOLD UP $3.20 TODAY: VERY STRANGE: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.91 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1034.37 TONNES.

JULY 14/WITH GOLD UP $15.50 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1037.28 TONNES

JULY 13/WITH GOLD UP $3.70 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.91 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1037.28 TONNES.

July 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.55 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1040.19 TONNES.

JULY 9/WITH GOLD UP $10,25 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1040.19 TONNES

JULY 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.90 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.04 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1040.18 TONNES

JULY 7/WITH GOLD UP $7.70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1042.23 TONNES

JULY 6/WITH GOLD UP $11.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .48 TONNES//INVENTORY REST AT 1042.23 TONNES

JULY 2/WITH GOLD UP $6.15 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.62 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1043.16 TONNES

JULY 1/WITH GOLD UP $5.55 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1045.78 TONNES

JUNE 30/WITH GOLD UP $8.30 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1045.78 TONNES

JUNE 29/WITH  GOLD DOWN $17.55 TODAY;A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD;A DEPOSIT OF 2.91 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1045.78 TONNES

JUNE 28/WITH GOLD UP $2.00 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1042.65 TONNES/

JUNE 25/WITH GOLD UP $1.45 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1042.65 TONNES

JUNE 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.20 TODAY: TWO HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.9 TONNES FROM THE GLD AT 3 PM AND ANOTERH 3.78 TONNES AT 5 20 PM///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1042.65 TONNES

JUNE 23/WITH GOLD UP $5.75 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1049.55 TONNES

JUNE 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1049.55 TONNES//

JUNE 21/WITH GOLD UP $13.70 TODAY: TWO HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 11.09 TONNES INTO THE GLD AT 3 PM AND THEN A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.42 TONNES AT 5 PM////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1049.55 TONNES

JUNE 18/WITH GOLD DOWN  $7.70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1041.99 TONNES/

 
 
 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Inventory rests tonight at:

 

AUGUST 13 / GLD INVENTORY 1023.54 tonnes

 

LAST;  1113 TRADING DAYS:   +99.65 TONNES HAVE BEEN ADDED THE GLD

 

LAST 963 TRADING DAYS// +  274.11. TONNES HAVE NOW  BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them!)

AUGUST 13/WITH SILVER UP 59 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE   SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.038 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 555.466 MILLION OZ.

AUGUST 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 39 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 553.428 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 11/WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 553.428 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 10.WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 553.428 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 78 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 371,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 553.428 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 86 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 553.057 MILLION OZ.

AUGUST 5/WITH  SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY;NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 553.057 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 12 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV;A WITHDRAWAL OF 240,000 OZ FORM THE SLV//INVENTORY REST AT 553.057 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 3/WITH  SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 553.297 MILLION OZ..

AUGUST 2/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 553.297 MILLION OZ.

JULY 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.02 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 553.297 MILLION OZ//

JULY 29/WITH SILVER UP 86 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.151 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 552.277 MILLION OZ..

JULY 28/WITH SILVER UP 20 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 555.428 MILLION OZ//

JULY 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 64 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 555.428 MILLION OZ..

JULY 26/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 555.428 MILLION OZ.

JULY 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 555.428 MILLION OZ.

JULY 22/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.483 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 555.428 MILLION OZ..

JULY 21/WITH SILVER UP 25 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 556.911 MILLION OZ//

JULY 20/WITH SILVER  DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A MONSTER WITHDRAWAL OF 4.171 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 556.911 MILLION OZ.

JULY 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 64 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A DEPOSIT OF 7.23 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 561.082 MILLION OZ/

JULY 16.WITH SILVER  DOWN 57 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.298 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY REST AT 553.852 MILLION OZ//

JULY 15/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 555.150 MILLION OZ/

JULY 14/SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 550.150 MILLION OZ

JULY 13/WITH SILVER  DOWN 5  CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTOR RESTS AT 555.150 MILLION OZ..

JULY 12/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV//: A WITHDRAWAL OF 926,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 555.150 MILLION OZ

JULY 9/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 556.077 MILLION OZ//

JULY 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY //NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 556.077 MILLION OZ.

JULY 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 5  CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.854 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/// INVENTORY RESTS AT 556.077 MILLION OZ//

JULY 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 29 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//: A WITHDRAWAL OF 242,000  OZ INVENTORY REST AT 557 931 MILLION OZ.

JULY 2/WITH SILVER UP 35 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.966 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 558.173 MILLION OZ.

JULY 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 561.139 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 30/WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.781 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 561.139 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 32 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 927,000 OZ FORM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 558.358 MILLION OZ.

JUNE 28/WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.762 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 559.285 MILLION OZ

JUNE 25//WITH SILVER DOWN 0 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.391 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 561.047 MILLION OZ

 

JUNE 24/WITH  SILVER DOWN 1 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.854 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 562.438 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 23/WITH SILVER UP 23 CENTS TODAY:A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.391 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 564.292 MILLION OZ../

JUNE 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.173 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 565.683 MILLION OZ..

JUNE 18/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 573.657 MILLION OZ//

 

SLV INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT

AUGUST11/2021      555.466 MILLION OZ

 
 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i)Peter Schiff:/

Another huge data point:  soaring import and export prices

(zerohedge)

“Worse Than The ’70s” – Schiff Stunned At Soaring Import/Export Prices

 
FRIDAY, AUG 13, 2021 – 08:39 AM

Import price inflation slowed again in July, falling from +11.3% YoY to +10.2% YoY (still high by any measure). However, export prices rebounded unexpectedly to +17.2% from +16.9% YoY ion June (and well beyind the +16.0% YoY expected)…

Source: Bloomberg

Notably, Import prices ex-petroleum rose just 0.1% m/m after rising 0.7% in June (and ex-food and fuels saw a 0.1% MoM drop in July).

Additionally, import prices from China are at their highest since Dec 2015…

Given the relative scale of US exports vs imports this report should ease some fears of growing trade deficits and also supports – at the margin – the idea that US inflation is transitory. However, we would note that we are way beyond base effects here from 2020’s crash and these extremely high inflation prints are looking very sticky for now.

Peter Schiff was, as usual, not afraid to share his opinion on these still shockingly high numbers…

9,134

EGON VON GREYERZ//MATHEW PIEPENBERG/JIM RICKARDS

The flash crash explained

(Mathew Piepenberg)

Gold’s “Flash Crash” Explained: Charts, Fundamentals, & Familiar Manipulations

 
THURSDAY, AUG 12, 2021 – 06:45 PM

Via GoldSwitzerland.com,

In this 23-minute MAMChat, Matterhorn principals Egon von Greyerz and Matthew Piepenburg address gold’s recent “flash crash” in the context of technicals, fundamentals, and good ol’ fashioned price manipulation from the bullion banks.

“…it was a black hole [at that time of day] of liquidity, no trader would ever sell into that if they wanted to get rid of gold in an orderly way…”

“…this we’ve seen many times before. Clearly, this is intervention, manipulation at the highest degree…”

Toward this end, Egon gives careful attention to the technical indicators and their bullish trends/confirmations while Matthew digs deeper under the hood to reveal the relationship between Basel III regs, bullion bank gold shortages and the motives behind gold’s recent price decline.

Egon then addresses the historical pricing and hence buying opportunities for gold when measured against the broader money supply, confirming that precious metals have never been so seductively undervalued as they are today. For longer-term investors rather than short-term speculators, gold is particularly well priced, positioned and essential in the current backdrop of just staggering debt, market and currency risk.

In short, the “flash crash” is merely a buying opportunity.

As to debt risk, debt cycles and the template of increased centralized controls by banks and governments, Matthew walks through the all-too sad yet familiar patterns of debt crises leading to social and economic instabilities which then inevitably usher in increased centralized control over financial and social systems, a trend all too familiar today, as Egon’s personal journey through financial and (hence) gold cycles confirm.

end

Rickards: What’s Happening With Gold?

 
FRIDAY, AUG 13, 2021 – 11:31 AM

Authored by James Rickards via DailyReckoning.com,

The gold market — at least the paper gold market — has seen a lot of volatility recently. Gold lost about $80 between August 5 and August 8 before rebounding. Gold gained over $22 today, by the way, to close at $1,753.

Many gold investors are panicked after the recent mini-crash. But today, I want to show you why the case for gold is still intact and why the recent tumble is just a bump in the road.

You shouldn’t let the mini-crash obscure a broader reality. You need to focus on the big picture, not the short-term fluctuations.

Gold has mostly moved sideways for almost a full year.

Gold prices reached an all-time peak of $2,069 per ounce on August 6, 2020. From there, gold moved back under $1,900 per ounce on September 22, 2020.

With the exceptions of three brief spikes (November 6, 2020, January 5, 2021, and June 2, 2021) and two brief dips (March 8, 2021, and March 30, 2021), gold has remained in a range between $1,700 and $1,900 per ounce.

The central tendency is $1,800.

Gold Has Been Boring

As of last Friday, gold was $1,803 per ounce, almost the exact center of the range. The 200-day simple moving average was $1,825 per ounce, also close to the central tendency.

Daily volatility provides some fireworks, but longer-term volatility is low, as indicated by the proximity of the central tendency, moving average and current price. It may be too much to say that gold price action has become boring but based on this price history, we have to admit: it is boring.

Admittedly $1,700 to $1,900 is a broad range. That range is bounded 5.5% above and below the $1,800 center, with a range of 11% from high to low.

On the other hand, ten months is a long period to remain range-bound especially given the volatility in stocks, bonds and other commodities; (lumber tripled in price and then fell by more than half from the peak in a matter of weeks this spring).

Still, gold is not a stock, bond or commodity. It’s money. It’s not official money, but it’s money.

The U.S. dollar is another form of money. What does it tell you when the relationship between gold and dollars (as expressed in the dollar price of gold) is so stable for so long?

The Calm Before the Storm

There are two possibilities.

  1. The first is that a stable equilibrium has been reached between the two best forms of money.

  2. The second is that trouble is brewing beneath the surface and the apparent stability is simply the calm before the storm.

I lean toward the latter view.

Ironically, the greatest leading indicator of high volatility is low volatility. Unless a true equilibrium exists, there’s no reason the dollar/gold cross-rate should be stable.

Given the pressures on the dollar from interest rates, inflation expectations, global capital flows, pandemic fears, political dysfunction and slowing growth, there’s no reason that a stable dollar price of gold should persist.

Of course, any disruption in the apparent equilibrium could move in either direction – either a lower dollar price for gold (stronger dollar) or a higher dollar price for gold (weaker dollar).

The challenge for analysts is to ascertain when the break will come and which direction it will take.

The Conventional Wisdom

The stability we have observed over the past ten months has a straightforward explanation. An inflation narrative has taken hold with respect to the U.S. economy and U.S. price indices.

The conventional wisdom is that the economy is booming because of Biden stimulus payments. Meanwhile, output is constrained by supply chain disruptions and labor shortages, and the Fed is printing trillions of dollars in new money.

These three factors will lead to higher wages and too much money chasing too few goods. This will result in both demand-pull inflation (from fiscal stimulus and easy money) and cost-push inflation (from higher wages and output shortages).

This toxic combination will cause higher prices and higher interest rates to fight inflation. The higher rates will result in a stronger dollar and lower dollar price for gold.

But is the conventional wisdom right?

In fact, the opposite seems to be playing out. Fed money printing is not moving into the real economy; it’s stuck in excess reserves at the Fed.

Economic Headwinds

Fiscal stimulus does not have a stimulative effect because fear of high debt levels and continuing weakness in the economy is resulting in sky-high savings rates, so-called precautionary savings.

The labor shortage is a mirage because there are tens of millions still unemployed. Any shortages are due to employers’ inability to pay higher wages due to a continuing weak economy.

A new wave in the pandemic is slowing growth even more with new lockdowns and quarantines.

Supply-chain problems appear to be temporary and are already starting to clear up. Markets recognize this weakness and have caused U.S. interest rates to plunge.

This inflation narrative and disinflation counter-narrative have carried on a kind of tug-of-war since last fall, with the inflation narrative having the upper hand. However, the disinflation narrative has been gaining credence in recent weeks.

This explains why gold prices have moved in a range because interest rates on 10-year Treasury notes have also moved in a range of 1.00% to 1.75% since early January. Today, the 10-year yield is 1.32%, close to the middle of the range.

Gold prices and interest rates have moved inversely within their respective ranges all year. I am a strong proponent of the disinflation counter-narrative and coming lower rates.

If higher rates mean a stronger dollar and lower dollar price for gold, does it follow that lower rates from disinflation mean a weaker dollar and a higher dollar price for gold?

Not exactly.

There’s something even more important than the inflation/disinflation debate going on that hasn’t gotten much attention.

Early Stages of a Financial Panic?

We may be in the early stages of a financial panic caused by a global shortage of high-quality dollar collateral (mostly in the form of Treasury bills) and a resulting contraction in large bank balance sheets (because they don’t have good collateral they can leverage for cash).

Such panics can unfold slowly and out of the view of the mainstream media for a year or more before they burst into view. The Russia-LTCM panic of September 1998 started in Thailand in June 1997. The collapse of Lehman Brothers and AIG in September 2008 started with mortgage delinquencies in late 2006 and early 2007.

It took a year for both panics to erupt.

Only professionals and experts see the signs. Most investors realize there’s a panic when it’s already too late to protect themselves.

If a new liquidity crisis is underway (and there are signs that this is the case), then we should not be surprised to see it turn into a full-scale panic and possible market collapse late this year.

The Scales Tip in Gold’s Favor

If that happens, stocks will crash, rates will plunge, Treasury bond prices will soar, and the dollar will initially rally based on a flight-to-quality trade. Gold’s reaction in this scenario is also predictable.

In a crisis, gold initially drops as weak hands sell to raise cash to meet collateral calls on losing positions. Then the strong hands emerge and bid up the price of gold as the ultimate safe haven.

In this scenario, gold and the dollar do not move inversely. Instead, they both move higher (gold prices rise even as the dollar gets stronger against the euro, yen and sterling) due to panic conditions and the flight-to-quality.

Today’s calm market is the best time to acquire gold in preparation for what could be a tumultuous fall and winter to come.

The equilibrium is about to be broken, and the balance of forces favors gold.

OR LAWRIE WILLIAMS

LAWRIE WILLIAMS: Gold and silver

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

We brought you this big story yesterday but we will repeat it because of its importance:  the PPI skyrocketed in numbers reported in the uSA.  These prices paid to producers is a forerunner of rampant inflation and thus good for gold and silver

(GATA/Bloomberg)

Prices paid to producers in U.S. increase more than forecast

 

 

 Section: Daily Dispatches

 

Counterintuitively enough, gold prices fell.

* * *

By Olivia Rockerman
Bloomberg News
Thursday, August 12, 2021

Prices paid to U.S. producers rose in July by more than expected, suggesting that higher commodity costs and supply bottlenecks are still adding to inflationary pressures for companies.

The producer price index for final demand increased 1% from the prior month and 7.8% from a year earlier, Labor Department data showed today. Excluding volatile food and energy components, the so-called core PPI also rose 1%, a second-month of record gains.

Compared with July 2020, the core index was up 6.2%. The advances in the overall PPI and core measure from a year ago were the largest in annual data back to 2010. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-12/prices-paid-to-producers-in-u-s-increase-more-than-forecast

 

end

Pam and Russ sees a huge spike in repo loans and warns of a market crash

Two commentaries on this:  the Martens and Dave Kranzler

(Wall Street on Parade)

Pam and Russ Martens: Fed report shows a spike in repo loans warns of market crash

 

 

 Section: Daily Dispatches

 

By Pam and Russ Martens
Wall Street on Parade
Thursday, August 12, 2021

On July 29 the Federal Reserve released its annual report for 2020. the Appendix contains 13 statistical tables that would make most folks’ eyes glaze over.

Table G.5A., however, is worthy of a glass of good wine, a comfy armchair, and some serious musing

That table provides a 36-year history of, among other things, the Fed’s deployment of repurchase agreements (repo loans) at the outbreak of a crisis; its loans and other credit extensions; and its securities held outright — which have exploded since the Fed adopted quantitative easing (QE) in 2008. 

QE is the Fed’s wonky expression for it buying up trillions of dollars in notes and bonds to push interest rates down near zero, thus forcing money in search of a return into the stock market, which is majority-owned by the top 10 percent of the wealthiest Americans. 

In other words, QE is a wealth transfer system in drag as monetary policy. …

… For the remainder of the analysis:

https://wallstreetonparade.com/2021/08/the-fed-just-published-36-years-of-its-money-data-it-shows-a-spike-in-repo-loans-is-an-early-warning-of-an-impending-market-crash/

end

Dave Kranzler: Is the Fed bracing for impact?

 

 

 Section: Daily Dispatches

 

By Dave Kranzler
Investment Research Dynamics, Denver
Thursday, August 12, 2021

“The concept of transitory is really this: it is that, uh, the increases will happen. We’re not saying they will reverse. That’s not what transitory means. It means that the increases in prices will happen, so there will be inflation, but that the process of inflation, uh, will stop so that, so that there won’t be furth- uh — fur- …”

— Jay Powell, verbatim, on inflation at the last post-FOMC meeting press conference.

Wall Street on Parade today read through the Fed’s Annual Report for 2020 and discovered a direct correlation between the Fed’s deployment of large repo operations and the onset of a financial crisis. This occurred at the end of 1999, 2008, and in late 2019. (I predicted in October 2019 that the Fed’s repo operations were nothing more than QE dressed in drag and that a financial crisis was brewing. 

Wall Street On Parade does the grunt work and it’s worth reading their findings because the reverse repo operations certainly signal that something ominous is occurring behind the Fed’s “curtain.”

In the context of the high correlation between repo loan spikes and financial system accidents, it makes the Fed’s establishment of a $500 billion “standing” repo facility that is open to both domestic and foreign banks even more intriguing. …

… For the remainder of the analysis:

https://investmentresearchdynamics.com/financial-markets/is-the-fed-bracing-for-impact-got-gold-and-silver/

end

Anatomy of the drive by shooting:

Ted Butler

Ted Butler: The bad, the ugly, and the good

 

 

 Section: Daily Dispatches

 

By Ted Butler
SilverSeek.com
Thursday, August 12, 2021

In the space of two trading days, the world of gold and silver prices was turned on its head. On Friday and Monday silver plunged to its lowest level of 2021, gold touched its low for the year and the silver/gold price ratio also rose to its most undervalued level for silver of the year. 

Not that anyone needs reminding, let me first run through the bad and ugly aspects of the price smash before getting into what was good about it. And yes, the bad and the good overlap

Typically, such outsized moves occur against a backdrop of great volatility in other markets, but not this time — the extreme price declines in gold and silver were largely self-contained and glaringly specific. As such, it becomes easier to see that there was an intentional and deliberate motive to the bombing of gold and silver prices not camouflaged by movements in other markets. 

It was clear to see that the smashing of gold and silver was quite unique and specific. It’s bad enough when investors suffer sudden large markdowns in their holdings, but much worse is the thought that the losses were deliberately inflicted. That’s what pushes it into the ugly stage.

Not to keep beating a horse long dead, but the two-day price smash was purely a Comex paper positioning production, designed and executed for the specific purpose of inducing as much non-commercial selling as possible, so that the commercials could buy as many contracts as possible. …

… For the remainder of the analysis:

https://silverseek.com/article/bad-ugly-and-good

end

OTHER PHYSICAL//COMMODITY STORIES//CRYPTOCURRENCIES
 

Your early FRIDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results, important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs usa dollar/CLOSED UP AT 6.4803 

 

//OFFSHORE YUAN 6.4812  /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 8.44 PTS OR 0.24% 

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 126.20 PTS OR 0.48 %

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 37.87 PTS OR 0.14% 

 

3. Europe stocks  ALL GREEN 

 

USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO  92.83/Euro RISES TO 1.1762

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +.024/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 110.21/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

3c Nikkei now JUST ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 69.01 and Brent: 71.11

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE CLOSED DOWN-OFF SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO -.448%/Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP to 0.57% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD down TO 0.23%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.02: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 0.54

3k Gold at $1759.60 silver at: 23.41   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 28/100 in roubles/dollar) 73.32

3m oil into the 69 dollar handle for WTI and  71 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 110.31 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9208 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 1.0829 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to 0.448%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 1.341% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 1.999%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 8.55..  VERY DEADLY

Friday 13th Futures Hit New All-Time High, Europe Set For 10th Straight Record Close

 
FRIDAY, AUG 13, 2021 – 08:08 AM

S&P 500 futures celebrated Friday the 13th with a brand new record highs on Friday boosted by Walt Disney’s forecast-beating results, while signs of cooling inflation and a strong recovery in corporate earnings kept the indexes on track for a second straight week of gains. But the real party today was in Europe, where stocks headed for the 10th consecutive record high, the longest winning streak since 1999, as bullishness swept across markets after a blowout earnings season and economic recovery out of lockdowns. Asian markets, Treasury yields and the dollar dipped while cryptos surged with both bitcoin and ethereum up around 5%. At 730 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were up 46 points, or 0.13%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 1.5 points, or 0.06%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 3 points, or 0.01%.

“Even though the delta variant keeps weighing on market sentiment in many regions like Asia, investors are optimistic about countries with more aggressive vaccination programs in place, such as Europe and the U.S.,” said Pierre Veyret, technical analyst at ActivTrades.

So far this week, the Dow and the S&P 500 have gained 0.8% and 0.5% respectively, boosted by a ~1.1% gain in economy-linked value stocks. Disney jumped 5.4% in premarket trading after it topped Wall Street expectations for quarterly earnings as its streaming services picked up more customers than expected and pandemic-hit U.S. theme parks returned to profitability. Here are some more of the biggest U.S. movers today:

  • Activision Blizzard Inc rose 0.8% after Citigroup upgrade the video game publisher’s stock to “buy” from “neutral”.
  • Airbnb (ABNB) falls 3.9% with analysts saying its disappointing guidance for 3Q will provide fuel to bears on the stock, though they argue that the long-term attractions of the company remain intact.
  • Disney (DIS) shares climb 5% in premarket trading after the group reported a strong recovery for its Parks business and a solid quarter for its Disney+ streaming service, with analysts expecting further good news from the latter to emerge as the year goes on.
  • DoorDash (DASH) analysts increased their price targets on the stock after the food delivery company reported 2Q results that beat market expectations. Its still still fell 5.4% and the Street acknowledged a possible risk to the outlook given the guidance for weaker-than-normal seasonality, as well as near-term concerns around the prospect of biggest shareholder SoftBank reducing its stake.
  • Rocket Cos. (RKT) shares rise 5.3% with analysts saying the mortgage firm’s guidance for 3Q is ahead of expectations.
  • Philip Morris International moved closer to the acquisition of Vectura Group, a maker of asthma drugs, after the company’s board backed the tobacco giant’s 1.02 billion-pound ($1.4 billion) offer over a lower bid from Carlyle Group.

The best earnings season of all time (and it’s all downhill from here), improving economic data and the Senate’s passage of a large infrastructure bill have all reinforced investors’ belief in the economic recovery, pushing U.S. stocks to all-time highs in the past few sessions. Concerns over higher inflation and a sooner-than-anticipated policy tapering by the Federal Reserve have also faded after the latest data showed the pace of increase in U.S. consumer prices slowed in July even as producer prices posted their biggest annual increase in more than a decade. Investors now await the minutes of the Fed’s latest policy meeting, due next week, and the annual meeting of central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, later in August for policy cues.

As Bloomberg notes, Europe and the U.S. have pushed ahead with inoculations, attracting investors as travel and reopenings gather pace. Traders plowed $1.5 billion into European equity funds this week, the most in two months, according to Bank of America. Along with the wave of strong corporate results, the global backdrop is sufficient for some strategists to predict a rebound in the reflation trade tied to economic revival.

“It’s really hard to keep people back, or put people back, in lockdown,” Ann Miletti, head of active equity at Wells Fargo Asset Management, said in an interview on Bloomberg Television. She flagged “pent-up demand” but also warned of the risk of an equity correction after a prolonged period of calm.

Overnight, MSCI’s index of world stocks also hit a new record high. European stocks headed for the longest winning streak since 1999 as a wave of global euphoria swept across markets. The Stoxx 600 Index rose 0.2%, poised for a tenth straight record close, and France’s CAC 40 approached the highest in more than two decades. The CAC 40’s 24% rise so far this year ranks second only to some Nordic benchmarks among major western European equity indexes. Stuffed with cyclical shares, the gauge may be headed for further outperformance on signs the global economy is shrugging off the delta variant.

Adidas advanced 2% in Germany after the company agreed to sell its underperforming Reebok business to Authentic Brands for up to 2.1 billion euros ($2.5 billion). The price is probably “a bit better” than investors’ expectations, with the majority of proceeds likely to be returned to shareholders via a buyback next year, according to Berenberg.  UEFA is putting the final touches to a rescue package valued at as much as 6 billion euros ($7 billion) to help European soccer recover from the impact of the pandemic, according to people familiar with the matter.

Here are some of the other biggest European movers today:

  • Zooplus shares surge as much as 43% in Frankfurt trading to match the value of a EU390 a share offer from buyout firm Hellman & Friedman.
  • Babcock shares rise as much as 8.5% after the U.K. outsourcing company agreed to sell its Frazer-Nash consultancy arm to KBR for GBP293m, a move Shore Capital says is a “positive step.”
  • SimCorp shares gain as much as 3.8% after earnings and new CEO announcement, with Handelsbanken saying that the software firm saw a “strong” 2Q.
  • Ipsen shares drop as much as 12%. The pharmaceutical firm’s withdrawal of the U.S. regulatory filing for its drug palovarotene, done to complete further data analyses, “comes as a surprise,” Jefferies writes in a note.
  • ForFarmers shares fall as much as 7.6% to a record low following 1H earnings. KBC said the animal feed company’s update was disappointing, lowering its recommendation to hold and noting an “abnormally fierce battle for market share.”

Unlike the unbridled buying frenzy in Europe and the US, Asian stocks fell for a second day, and were set to erase the week’s earlier advance, as technology heavyweights dropped on a combination of concerns over China’s regulations and chip demand. The MSCI Asia Pacific index lost as much as 0.6% on Friday, on pace for a weekly drop. The biggest drags were a gauge including the largest makers of memory chips and a measure of consumer-discretionary stocks including Alibaba Group. South Korean equity gauges were among the worst performers in the region as Samsung Electronics sank to its lowest level since December. Read more: Fear Overwhelms Greed for Kospi China on Thursday released a five-year blueprint calling for greater regulation of vast parts of the economy. It said authorities would “actively” work on legislation in areas including national security, technology and monopolies. Weighing further on sentiment for chips stocks was Apple partner Hon Hai Precision Industry’s downbeat projection for this quarter’s sales of gadgets including smartphones. “The general demand outlook is weaker than people expect. That can affect market sentiment on the whole sector,” Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Charles Shum said, in reference to semiconductors. As for equities, “the valuation/price at this level prices in all the positive factors — higher pricing, margin improvements — over the next two years,” he said. Rising coronavirus cases in the region continued to keep investors wary, with Asia’s stock benchmark now down year-to-date after erasing gains of as much as 10%.

Thailand’s new Covid cases reached a daily record as the death toll increased, while South Korean Prime Minister Kim Boo-kyum urged the public to refrain from traveling during a three-day holiday starting Saturday. Philippine stocks retreated for a second day, driving the nation’s benchmark equities index to its sharpest loss since June 2020, amid concerns coronavirus infections will keep spreading

Japanese stocks completed a two-week advance as gains on Wall Street outweighed growing concerns over the pandemic’s spread. The Topix and the Nikkei 225 rose 1.4% and 0.6% this week, respectively. The rally coincided with the S&P 500’s climb to a record after the U.S. Senate passed a $550 billion infrastructure spending package. “Value stocks performed well this week due to expectations over the U.S. infrastructure bill,” said Nobuhiko Kuramochi, a market strategist at Mizuho Securities. Meanwhile, “the virus outbreak is expanding,“ he said. Equity gains were more modest on Friday, with the Topix adding just 0.1% to 1,956.39. Services stocks led the advance, as 15 of 33 sectors gained; 1,041 of 2,188 shares rose, while 1,030 fell. Recruit Holdings Co. contributed the most to the gain, increasing 10%. The Nikkei 225 fell 0.1% to 27,977.15. U.S. index futures were steady during Asia trading hours. On Thursday, U.S. stocks set another record high even as the S&P 500 settles into the narrowest trading range since before the Covid pandemic roiled global financial markets. A report showed applications for U.S. state unemployment benefits dropped for the third week in a row. “Japan is in a wait-and-see mode, and the earnings season is coming to an end,” said Mamoru Shimode, chief strategist at Resona Asset Management. “It will have to wait until the global economic recovery outlook picks up again.” Terminal users can read more in our markets live blog

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 index rose 0.5% to close at 7,628.90, another record high. The benchmark rose for a fourth day and was underpinned by gains in health and utilities stocks. For the week, the index added 1.2%. Premier Investments was among the best performers after being raised to buy at UBS. Chalice Mining was one of the biggest laggards, falling to its lowest since April 21. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index rose 0.6% to 12,764.06

In rates, the yield on benchmark 10-year Treasury notes was last 1.3489%, little changed from its U.S. close of 1.367% on Thursday.  Treasuries edged higher even as stocks extend gains in Europe and head for the longest winning streak since 1999. Treasury yields were richer by up to 2bp across 10year yields which sit around 1.40%, flattening 2s10s spread by 1.9bp on the day; in 10-year sector, Treasuries outperform bunds by 2bp and gilts by 1.5bp so far on the day. Volumes remained muted with summer trading in full effect and risk events of CPI and U.S. auctions passing. Gilts and bunds both underperform.

In FX, the dollar held firm on Friday, staying near its highest level in four months against a basket of currencies as investors looked for more hints from the Federal Reserve on its plans to reduce monetary stimulus. The dollar index firmed to 92.976 , near Wednesday’s four-month high of 93.195. Analysts at Commonwealth Bank of Australia said a tapering announcement next month was not currently widely expected.

“However, we expect market participants to be given some hints about tapering in next week’s FOMC minutes and Chair Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole at the end of the month,” they wrote in a note.

In commodities, oil prices fell for a second straight day after the International Energy Agency warned that demand growth for crude and its products had slowed sharply

Looking at the day ahead we get the latest import price index reading and the preliminary reading of the August University of Michigan sentiment survey. Watch out for inflation expectations within the report.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures little changed at 4,456.75
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.2% to 475.58
  • MXAP down 0.4% to 199.62
  • MXAPJ down 0.7% to 656.38
  • Nikkei down 0.1% to 27,977.15
  • Topix up 0.1% to 1,956.39
  • Hang Seng Index down 0.5% to 26,391.62
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.2% to 3,516.30
  • Sensex up 0.9% to 55,364.83
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.5% to 7,628.92
  • Kospi down 1.2% to 3,171.29
  • German 10Y yield little changed at -0.460%
  • Euro little changed at $1.1737
  • Brent Futures down 0.7% to $70.81/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.2% to $1,756.03
  • U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 92.98

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • President Joe Biden is sending about 3,000 U.S. troops to Kabul to help evacuate more diplomats from the U.S. embassy, underscoring just how badly the U.S. has been caught off guard by the speed of the Taliban’s advance across Afghanistan as American forces withdraw
  • Americans with weakened immune systems will be allowed to get three shots of a Covid-19 vaccine after U.S. regulators authorized giving an extra dose to the most vulnerable people
  • A Covid outbreak that has partially shut one of the world’s busiest container ports is heightening concerns that the rapid spread of the delta variant will lead to a repeat of last year’s shipping nightmares.
  • U.K. wages are rising as companies scramble to recruit workers to help them recover after the last coronavirus restrictions eased in July, a survey showed.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asia-Pac stocks traded mostly lower as the region largely shrugged off the mild positive lead from Wall Street, which saw the SPX notch new ATHs above the 4,450 mark (Russell 2000 closed with modest losses). The index was bolstered by the tech and growth sectors, while energy, industrials, and materials were the worst performers. Back to APAC, the ASX 200 (+0.5%) hit a fresh record high with financials leading the gains and offsetting losses in the mining sector. The Nikkei 225 (+0.1%) was indecisive on either side of the 28k mark throughout the night, whilst the KOSPI (-1.2%) underperformed as the nation faces threats from rising COVID cases – which triggered a weekend stay-at-home order – alongside tough rhetoric from nuclear-savvy North Korea. Elsewhere, the Hang Seng (-0.5%) solidified a downside bias as the region tackles crackdown jitters, with Hong Kong extending on losses throughout the session with Alibaba and Tencent posting losses of 3% apiece. The Shanghai Comp (-0.3%) meanwhile was choppy but traded in the red for the most part as Mainland China faces rising COVID cases which in turn is expected to slow growth momentum.

Top Asian News

  • Hong Kong Raises 2021 Growth Forecast as Virus Concerns Ease
  • Home Prices in World’s Most Expensive Market Break Record
  • Japan Confronts Lockdown Taboo With Virus at ‘Disaster Level’
  • Gold Heads for Second Weekly Loss With Taper Talk in Focus

European equities (Eurostoxx 50 +0.2%) trade with little in the way of firm direction as macro newsflow remains light and markets remain in “holiday mode”. The Stoxx 600 is on course to finish the week with gains of around 1% having printed several record highs along the way and extending its rally seen since the start of the month. Overnight, Asia-Pacific trade was predominantly softer with underperformance in Chinese bourses alongside a backdrop of increased regulation and mounting COVID concerns. Stateside, futures are little changed with some minor underperformance in the RTY (-0.1%) relative to the ES (+0.1%) with the latter currently at record highs. Commentary from JP Morgan notes that “the trends in prospective EPS growth forecasts, seasonality in earnings expectations, and recent changes in sector EPS revisions, all suggest a more cautious approach may be warranted”. JP Morgan goes on to state that it believes “there are increasing opportunities to support Staples and Health Care as we progress through H2”. Sectoral performance in Europe is relatively mixed and narrow in terms of breadth as Travel & Leisure and Retail names lead, whilst Tech and Basic Resources lag. In terms of stock specifics, Adidas (+2.1%) sits at the top of the DAX following the sale of Reebok to Authentic Brands for EUR 2.1bln. GEA Group (+3.1%) sits near the top of the Stoxx 600 after announcing a EUR 300mln share buyback programme. To the downside, Ipsen (-11.7%) is the clear laggard after announcing that, following FDA discussions it has withdrawn the NDA for palovarotene.

Top European News

  • EU Gas Slips as Traders Weigh Virus Risks Against Supply Woes
  • Gold Heads for Second Weekly Loss With Taper Talk in Focus
  • Merkel’s Would-Be Successor Seeks Some of Musk‘s Star Power
  • European Stocks Get Largest Inflows in Eight Weeks, BofA Says

In FX, it’s been a particularly quiet start for trade in the FX space with the DXY confined to particularly tight parameters around the 93.00 mark (range of 92.913-93.012). If the index manages to stage a more meaningful breach of 93.00 to the upside, this will bring yesterday’s high of 93.037 into play with this week’s peak of 93.195 thereafter. Beyond that an approach of the 31st March YTD high of 93.439 could be a tall order with a particularly barren data docket asides from the prelim. Uni. Of Michigan release at 15:00BST. Prelim. data for August is expected to show a pick-up for headline consumer sentiment, to 82.0 from 81.2. The inflation components will also by eyed by market participants in the context of this week’s CPI and PPI metrics in which, the former calmed ‘runaway inflation’ fears and emboldened those who argued that inflation is of a transitory nature. All else equal, markets continue to remain fixated on the Jackson Hole Symposium at the end of the month.

  • EUR/GBP – EUR has managed to eke out gains against the USD and is currently straddling the 1.1750 mark. Fundamental catalysts are very much lacking and therefore a retake of the 1.18 handle does not look on the cards with the pair still unable to claw back losses seen in the wake of last Friday’s US jobs report. That said, EUR bulls will take some solace from the fact that EUR/USD just about managed to avoid slipping below its YTD low at 1.1702 with this week’s trough for the pair standing at 1.1704. If EUR/USD does make its way on to a 1.16 handle, potential support could be provided at 1.1694 which marks the 38.2% Fib of the 2020-21 move. For EUR/GBP, focus is on the 0.85 mark with the cross recently breaching this level. If the cross is able to pick up further traction to the upside, technicians eye the 21 DMA (0.8530), 50 DMA (0.8554), and 100 DMA (0.8590). GBP is marginally softer vs. the USD with support at 1.38 giving way in recent trade.
  • JPY/AUD/NZD – Price action for other majors against the USD is near-enough non-existent. The JPY is faring mildly better than most peers and sub-110.50 vs. the greenback after peaking at 110.79 on Wednesday. If the pair continues to head south, this could bring Monday’s low into play at 110.01, which of course rests just above the psychological 110.00 mark. If this level does give way, technicians note the 21 DMA at 109.97 and 100 DMA at 109.69. From a fundamental perspective, news that Tokyo’s COVID cases have surpassed the previous record of 5,042 has done very little to sway prices. Antipodeans are eking minor gains vs. the USD with AUD/USD on track to see the week out pretty much where it started. Given the COVID situation in the nation which has seen increasing restrictions and record cases in many regions, this is arguably somewhat impressive with the pair able to recover from its 0.7314 low set on Tuesday. Across the Tasman, NZD/USD has fluctuated on either side of the 0.7000 mark – sandwiched between its 50 and 21 DMAs at 0.7022 and 0.6990 respectively and looking ahead to next week’s RBNZ policy announcement, which is expected to mark the first G10 central bank interest rate hike since the pandemic.

In commodities, a slightly choppy European morning for the crude benchmarks as they struggle to settle on a clear direction in an absence of specific, or even macro, newsflow. As it stands, WTI and Brent are near the unchanged mark for today but are set to conclude the week with gains of around USD 1/bbl from Monday’s sub-USD 68/bbl open in WTI, for instance. Attention resides firmly on the geopolitical front in Afghanistan as the Taliban continue to capture more territory, including the 2nd largest city of Kandahar. Though this is not, currently, dictating price action. Elsewhere, OPEC related updates after the US’ call to ramp up production have been minimal; but, on this, Goldman Sachs writes that this call is unlikely to materialise given the COVID-19 Delta variant, among other factors. The session ahead has little explicitly for the complex, aside from weekly rig count data via Baker Hughes – last week’s total print was +3 at 491. For metals, spot gold and silver are similarly contained though have a mild upward-bias benefitting from a softer USD and lower rates. Elsewhere, copper is firmer but again around familiar levels as we await confirmation of sources that BHP and Escondida, Chile workers have agreed on a new contract.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: July Import Price Index YoY, est. 10.5%, prior 11.2%; Import Price Index MoM, est. 0.6%, prior 1.0%
  • 8:30am: July Export Price Index YoY, prior 16.8%; Export Price Index MoM, est. 0.8%, prior 1.2%
  • 10am: Aug. U. of Mich. Current Conditions, est. 82.0, prior 84.5; Sentiment, est. 81.2, prior 81.2; Expectations, est. 77.5, prior 79.0
  • 10am: Aug. U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation, est. 4.6%, prior 4.7%; 5-10 Yr Inflation, prior 2.8%

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Well that’s me checking out for a couple of weeks after today. I shall be spending half the time upside down on rollercoasters feeling ill and the other half shouting at children. However tonight I’ll be negotiating how many rounds of golf I’ll be allowed to play over the break and what it’ll cost me. The children have been absolute horrors this summer holiday and being at work has shielded me from most of it so now for two weeks of stress, anger and extreme tiredness. Any glimpses of joy will be an unexpected bonus. I suspect I’ll be pining for my return to work so I can have a break. See you on the other side. Henry and Karthik will be minding the fort while I’m away.

Ahead of my holiday I’ve been pretty busy trying to put the finishing touches to my annual long term study over the last couple of weeks. It will be out in early September. This year’s study marks the fiftieth anniversary of fiat money and speculates as to whether this money system can survive. On this, the actual 50th anniversary of President Nixon suspending the convertibility of the dollar into gold and ushering in the fiat era will be marked this Sunday. So you may see a bit of press coverage here. I’ll be releasing a small single off the long-term study album in my CoTD today so watch out for that later.

Equity markets continued to grind higher yesterday and yet again hit fresh record highs in many markets even if Asian bourses continue to struggle a bit overnight. The S&P 500 rose +0.30% having traded in an average daily range of roughly 0.5% this month, which would be the lowest average monthly range since November 2019 if sustained. The S&P actually saw a majority of its constituents fall back yesterday, with only 46% advancing. Growth stocks in particular were better off yesterday with tech hardware (+1.64%), biotech (+0.96%), and software (+0.58%) firm as the reopening trade took a breather after outperforming during the early part of the week. In Europe the STOXX 600 recorded yet another all-time high – its ninth in a row – as the index rose +0.11%. However unlike the US, a majority (+55.5%) of stocks in the index rose, with cyclicals such as autos (+1.22%), retail (+0.65%) and construction (+0.53%) among the best performers.

Following the previous day’s ever-so-slightly tamer consumer prices print, yesterday’s US producer prices surprised to the upside highlighting the ongoing inflationary pressures from ever-rising commodity costs and supply chain bottlenecks. US July PPI showed prices rose +1.0% last month (+0.6% expected), and +7.8% y/y (+7.2% expected), with core PPI rising an identical +1.0% m/m and up +6.2% y/y. The services portion of the measure rose 1.1% as the increase in final demand services was fairly broad and included stronger margins at wholesalers and retailers.

While inflation has been the overarching theme this week, US jobless data from yesterday highlighted the improving employment backdrop as well. Jobless claims for the week through August 7 were in line with expectations at 375k. That’s a -12k decrease from the previous week, and the fourth weekly decline in the last five weeks. Also notably, continuing claims through July 31 fell to 2.866m (2.9m expected) from 2.98m the previous week. As of this week, around half of US state governors have now ended the supplemental pandemic unemployment benefit program before they were set to expire next month.

The data saw US 10yr Treasury yields continue to rise, with yields increasing +2.9bps to 1.359% – roughly where they were a month ago before a 20 plus bps rally into early August. It was the sixth daily rise in yields in the last seven sessions and was driven by both rising inflation expectations (+1.5bps) and real yields (+1.3bps). Meanwhile the US Treasury ended a busy week of auctions yesterday with a $27bn sale of 30-year bonds at a high yield of 2.0335%, this was +4bps more than its sale back in 13 July. On the day they finished flat at 2.000%. European sovereign bonds outperformed their US counterpart with 10yr bunds nearly unchanged (+0.4bps) at -0.46% and Southern European bond yields lower. Notably Italian (-2.3bps), Portuguese (-1.9bps), Spanish (-1.5bps), and Greek (-1.0bps) all saw their 10yr bond yields drop.

On the other hand, UK 10yr gilts saw higher yields yesterday, with yields increasing +3.0bps to 0.601%, following the latest GDP data. The UK economy grew +4.8% in Q2, according to yesterday’s preliminary reading, which was right in line with expectations. The increase was driven largely by household consumption and government spending, and falls just short of the BoE’s August MPR expectations of +5.0%. With restrictions being eased over the last quarter there was no surprise that consumer spending led a large portion of the print, but specifically private consumption contributed 4.2ppt.

Asian markets are trading weaker overnight with the Hang Seng (-0.70%), CSI (-0.64%), Shanghai Comp (-0.25%) and Kospi (-1.44%) all down. Looking at the sectoral performance, technology stocks are leading the declines with the Hang Seng tech index down as much as -2.08%. There is no particular new news but it seems that the old cocktail of the spread of the delta variant, the regions’ low vaccination rate and China’s ongoing regulatory crackdown is dampening sentiment. The Nikkei is trading broadly flat. Away from that, futures on the S&P 500 (-0.1%) are flattish while yields on 10y USTs are down -1.1bps to 1.350%. Our Chinese economists have downgraded their growth forecasts overnight. See their piece here.

On the pandemic, China partly shut down the third busiest port in the world yesterday due to an infected worker. All container services at Meishan terminal in Ningbo-Zhoushan port have been halted until further notice. This follows the Yantian port in Shenzhen being closed in late May for about a month, following a similar case there. The pandemic continues to worsen in Australia, with some government officials asking for a tighter lockdown of Sydney, where there have already been loose curbs for 2 months, but cases rose from 12 per day to roughly 350 per day this week. Over in the US, nationwide positive-test rates declined over the last week in the first sign that the delta outbreak might be subsiding. The nationwide rate, through this Monday, was at 9.5% after hitting 10.2% in the previous week,while the rate of increase in hospital admissions might be plateauing as well, with a 31.3% increase last week being largely in line with the 31.1% increase from the week before. Separately, the US FDA has approved booster shots of Moderna and Pfizer vaccines for immunocompromised individuals and said in a statement that other fully vaccinated individuals do not need an additional vaccine dose right now. On a related theme, Moderna’s long term study of its vaccine has shown nearly identical effectiveness after 6 months as was originally seen (93% vs 94%).

To the day ahead now and investors will get France’s Q2 unemployment rate and final July CPI, as well as Euro Area June trade balance. From the US, there is the latest import price index reading and the preliminary reading of the August University of Michigan sentiment survey. Watch out for inflation expectations within the report.

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)THURSDAY MORNING/WEDNESDAY  NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 8.44  PTS OR 0.24%   //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 126.20 PTS OR 0.48%      /The Nikkei closed DOWN 37.87 PTS OR 0.14%   //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP  0.47%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN TO 6.4803  /Oil DOWN TO 69.01 dollars per barrel for WTI and 71.11 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN   /ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED  DOWN AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.4803. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.4812/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%/

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

/SOUTH KOREA

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

JAPAN/

 

3 C CHINA

CHINA/COVID/VACCINE//ORIGINS

And Biden still wants to do business with these crooks

(Watson/SummitNews)

Head Of WHO Origin Probe Team Admits Communist China Ordered Them What To Write In Report

 
FRIDAY, AUG 13, 2021 – 09:30 AM

Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,

The head of the World Health Organization’s origin investigation into COVID-19 has admitted that China basically ordered his team on what to write in their report and allowed them to mention the lab leak theory, but only on the condition that they didn’t recommend following it up.

Revealing what is clear evidence of a cover up, the Washington Post reports that Danish WHO chief Ben Embarek made the admission after also commenting that he believes patient zero was a worker at the Wuhan Institute of Virology, where experiments on coronaviruses were being carried out.

Embarek noted that “human error” could have ultimately led to the virus jumping to humans, but that “the Chinese political system does not allow authorities to acknowledge that.”

Embarek commented that “Somebody could also wish to hide something.”

As we have previously notedthe Communist Chinese government, along with Dr. Peter Daszak, President of the EcoHealth Alliance, steered the course of the pathetic WHO “investigation”, which had already dismissed the lab leak notion after only a three hour visit to the facility in February.

Danish WHO Chief Says COVID ‘Patient Zero’ Was Likely Wuhan Lab Worker

In addition, China has refused to cooperate with the renewed WHO probe, declaring that any attempt to look into the lab leak theory goes “against science” and claiming, contrary to U.S. intelligence and the WHO’s own conclusions, that workers in the lab were hospitalised with COVID in the autumn of 2020.

end

CHINA/COVID/VACCINE//

 

The delta variant is playing havoc to the country of origin of the virus.  Yesterday shippers are frantic after China’s busiest port shuts its container terminal due to COVID

(zerohedge)

Shippers Frantic After China’s Busiest Port Shuts Container Terminal Due To Covid

 
THURSDAY, AUG 12, 2021 – 10:25 PM

We recently discussed how already astronomical container shipping costs are set to rise even higher should China lock down one or more shipping terminals to contain the spread of the delta variant in provinces that have direct exposure to global commerce (“Shipping Rates From China To US Hit Record $20,000 With No Drop In Sight” and “Brace For Astronomical Shipping Costs As China Goes Into Lockdown Mode“) with Goldman Sachs explicitly warning that “port closures or stricter control measures at ports could also put further upward pressure on shipping costs, which are already very high.”

It now looks that this worst case scenario is in play after Chinese authorities on Wednesday closed a major container terminal at the Port of Ningbo after a dock worker tested positive for COVID, raising fears among traders that supply chain disruptions that occurred when Yantian terminal in Shenzhen reduced output by 70% for a month earlier this summer would be repeated. 

According to FreightWaves which cited local media reports and logistics operators, all operations at the Ningbo Meidong Container Terminal, also referred to as the Meishan Terminal, were immediately suspended following the positive test results.

“With this sudden suspension, we expect a delay in planned sailings that might affect your cargo planning. Please know that we are working on alternatives, and hope for your understanding on a matter that is beyond our control,” German vessel operator Hapag-Lloyd said in a customer notice posted on its website, anticipating the howls of rage as already stratospheric shipping rates are poised to surge.

There are five container terminals in Ningbo. The port’s decision to shut down vessel and gate operations for at least a day effectively eliminated 20% of the port’s capacity.

Ningbo is the third-largest container port in the world after Shanghai and Singapore, but the most . It handled more freight in the first seven months of this year – 18.7 million twenty-foot equivalent units – than any other port in China, the Ministry of Transportation said last week. 

The Port of Ningbo in eastern China.

The consequences of the shutdown are already apparent: on Thursday, Mediterranean Shipping Co. pushed back estimated arrival times for two vessels departing Ningbo to the U.S. The MSC Danit, on the Sequoi service, is now scheduled to arrive on the U.S. west coast on Sept. 15, and the Maersk Seville, on the Lone Star service and part of the 2M Alliance, will arrive at its first east coast port on Oct. 2, according to an updated schedule issued Thursday.

With vessels rerouted to Shanghai, ports in the area are experiencing a fresh burst of congestion, with about 30 vessels waiting on anchor at the Yangshan port. The chart below from Refinitiv shows vessel congestion in Shanghai & Ningbo’s main ports.

If the outbreak spreads and authorities take further steps to lock down, the impact potentially could be greater than what happened at Yantian in late May and June according to FreightWaves. The limited activity in Yantian forced vessels to wait more than a week to reach a berth and created ripple effects worldwide. Many vessels skipped Yantian for other ports in south China, creating massive congestion in those locations. Backlogged shipments took weeks to clear from the docks and are still being pulled from warehouses and factories, upsetting delivery schedules for retailers and manufacturers.

“If something goes sideways in Ningbo, it’s going to be a real problem. At least as big, potentially, as what happened in Yantian,” a sea freight executive at a large logistics company said during a customer briefing American Shipper was privy to.

The freight forwarding division of C.H. Robinson told customers in an email notice to expect port delays and congestion.

Any lengthy closure could result in cargo diversion to other terminals and ports, putting a strain on their operations and exacerbating capacity challenges that have led to record shipping rates 10 times greater than normal for certain routes.

As Michael Every concluded in his daily note this morning, Delta is leading to further disruption to shipping at China’s busiest ports, and even Vietnamese and Thai production are being impacted by the virus. In short, shipping snarls are going to get worse. Anecdotes are of shippers telling clients they will not deliver except at a premium; of smaller firms, and countries, being pushed down the priority list; of ships refusing to pick up goods exports from some locations; and of a structural supply-demand mismatch of sought-after shipping containers.

It is against this backdrop that another supply-chain snafu is emerging, and unless contained quick, could lead to a dramatic deterioration in global shipping logistics just as optimism was emerging that the historic logjam was set to normalize by early 2022.

END

CHINA/USA/TAIWAN

Taiwan scrambles fighter jets after 6 Chinese warplanes enter its air defense identification zone

(zerohedge)

Taiwan Scrambles Fighter Jets After Six Chinese Warplanes Enter Its Air Defense Identification Zone

 
THURSDAY, AUG 12, 2021 – 05:45 PM

Six Chinese military aircraft, including fighter jets, entered Taiwan’s southwestern air defense identification zone (ADIZ) on Thursday, amid unconfirmed reports that a French frigate was spotted near Taiwan’s west coast.  According to a report from Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense (MND), the Chinese aircraft involved included one Y-8 electric warfare aircraft, one Y-8 electronic signals intelligence aircraft, and four J-16 multi-role fighters.

Taiwan’s Air Force responded by scrambling planes to monitor the Chinese aircraft, issuing radio warnings and mobilizing air defense assets until the Chinese planes left the area, the MND said according to the Focus Taiwan website.

All of the aircraft were spotted in airspace southwest of Taiwan, between Taiwan and the Taiwanese-held Dongsha Islands, an MND chart showed. The airspace is considered by Taiwan to be part of its ADIZ, an area declared by a country to allow it to identify, locate and control approaching foreign aircraft, but such zones are not considered territorial airspace.

Although it has become an almost daily routine for Chinese warplanes to fly into Taiwan’s ADIZ over the past two years, such sorties have only happened on three days this month — Aug 8, 11 and 12, according to MND records.

The Chinese military maneuvers on Thursday came after unconfirmed reports that the French frigate FS Provence was spotted by MarineTraffic, a ship tracking website, in waters off Changhua County in western Taiwan. A local Coast Guard unit first confirmed the report but later retracted it via a press release. However, on Thursday evening the French’s Defense Ministry said no French military vessels are deployed in the Taiwan Strait at present, in answer to a query from CNA.

If a French frigate moored near Taiwan it would likely be seen as a provocation by Beijing, which considers Taiwan to be part of its territory.

The latest Chinese sorties also came two days after Taiwan lauded Lithuania for defying Beijing on the establishment of a “Taiwanese Representative Office” in Lithuania.

China, which sees the name of the office as having sovereignty implication announced on Tuesday that it has decided to recall its ambassador to Lithuania and demanded Lithuania do the same due to the row over the Taiwan office. Responding to Beijing’s move, Lithuania’s Foreign Ministry said it is “determined to pursue mutually beneficial ties with Taiwan like many other countries in the European Union and the rest of the world do,” in line with the One China principle.

Taiwan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, for its part, lauded Lithuania’s “resolute will” to defend freedom and its national dignity.

end

EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

UK/COVID
UK Government is sued again over hotel quarantine rules
(Zhou/Epochtimes)

UK Government Sued (Again) Over Hotel Quarantine Rules

 
FRIDAY, AUG 13, 2021 – 03:30 AM

Authored by Lily Zhou via The Epoch Times,

A British law firm is seeking a second judicial review of the government’s hotel quarantine policy.

The firm, PGMBM, said it believes that putting people who test negative for COVID-19 and have been vaccinated into managed hotel quarantine is “an ‘unlawful deprivation of liberty’ and violates fundamental human rights.”

Under the UK’s traffic-light-style international travel system, only British and Irish citizens and residents are allowed to travel from the “red list” destinations—countries and areas that are deemed to be of high risk based on criteria such as vaccination numbers, infection rates, and prevalence of variants.

Those who arrive from the red list countries have to present a negative test taken within three days prior to arrival, pre-book a managed 10-day hotel quarantine (11 days including the arrival date) at one of the government designated hotels, and pay for two tests taken on day 2 and days 8 after arriving.

According to PGMBM’s managing partner Tom Goodhead, the cost of the quarantine package rose from £1,750 ($2,425) to £2,285 ($3,166) on Thursday.

PGMBM has previously won a judicial review of the policy, forcing the government to promise it would introduce a process for full or partial fee waiver applications on the grounds of financial hardship.

It now argues that “forcibly detaining fully vaccinated people returning to the UK from red list countries is unlawful when the government has shifted to ‘learning to live with the virus’ and lifted almost all legally mandated society-wide restrictions.”

PGMBM said if the government doesn’t change its approach, it could end up “paying tens of millions of pounds in compensation” on top of refunding the fees of “all those who have been already unlawfully forced to quarantine in hotels despite having been double vaccinated.”

Goodhead called mandatory hotel quarantine “a fundamental breach of human rights.”

“It has led to the false imprisonment of people who are fully vaccinated and have tested negative,” he said in a statement.

“Prisoners are entitled to more liberty than those forced to quarantine in hotels. We have all read about the horrific experiences of some of the people in these hotels. We want to see this draconian policy scrapped and those affected to be properly compensated.”

He argued that Ireland and Norway—the only other European countries with similar mandatory quarantine systems—have changed their policy to exempt fully vaccinated travellers.

“The UK must follow suit immediately,” Goodhead said.

Passengers are escorted through the arrivals area of terminal 5 towards coaches destined for quarantine hotels, after landing at Heathrow airport in London on April 23, 2021. (Leon Neal/Getty Images)

PGMBM said its letter to the government highlighted inconsistencies in its policy.

The UK government removed most legal restrictions to curb the spread of the CCP (Chinese Communist Party) virus on July 19.

After that, fully vaccinated “amber list” arrivals are exempt for self-isolation if they test negative on day 2 after their arrival.

PGMBM argues that this “acknowledge[s] the much lower risk profile of [a] fully-vaccinated person.”

It also argues that hotel quarantine for people who test negative is unfair when amber list country arrivals can self-isolate at home if they test positive for the CCP virus.

Recent studies suggest that although CCP virus vaccines are effective in reducing severe disease and death, it’s not very effective in terms of blocking transmission.

The latest REal-time Assessment of Community Transmission study-1 suggests that the estimated vaccine effectiveness against infection among 18–64-year-olds is between 49 and 58 percent. Regarding whether the vaccines can reduce the chance of passing the virus to others, various results have been observed, with some suggesting there’s no difference in infectiousness between vaccinated and unvaccinated people, and some saying that vaccinated people who caught COVID-19 are less likely to pass the virus on.

In an email to The Epoch Times, a government spokesperson said: “We are determined to protect our country and the progress we have made thanks to the vaccine rollout. That is why the government has taken decisive action at the border including the introduction of the managed quarantine system. Every essential check we’ve introduced has strengthened our defences against the risk of new coronavirus variants.

“Countries around the world are taking equivalent action and apply a fixed charge for quarantine costs. The cost for travelling back from a red list country covers transport from the port of arrival to the designated hotel, food, accommodation, security, other essential services, and testing.”

PGMBM has not responded to The Epoch Times request for comment at the time of publishing.

END

UK’s large Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies, an adviser to the UK government now claim that lockdowns can no longer be justified

(Watson/SummitNews) 

UK’s SAGE Advisor Says Lockdowns Can No Longer Be Justified

 
FRIDAY, AUG 13, 2021 – 02:00 AM

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

A top SAGE (Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies) adviser to the UK government says that COVID lockdowns can no longer be justified and that measures to control the virus should instead be aimed at protecting the most vulnerable.

Professor Andrew Hayward, a University College London epidemiologist, said that the days of disruptive restrictions imposed on everyone should end in favor of a more targeted approach.

“I think as we generally move into an endemic rather than pandemic situation the potential harm that a virus can cause at a population level is much less,” Hayward told BBC Radio 4.

“So you can’t really justify such broad population-wide control measures and we tend to target the control measures more to those who are most vulnerable,” he added.

“And so I think, not only in testing but in all sorts of forms of control, as we move into a situation where we’re coming to live with this virus forever, then we target the measures to the most vulnerable rather than having the more disruptive measures,” said the professor.

Hayward’s view that we need to learn to live with the virus was echoed by signatories to the Great Barrington Declaration, in which 12,000 scientists asserted that the strategy should be centered on “focused protection,” not endless lockdowns.

However, the UK government is still pursuing the idea of vaccine passports for some venues from September onwards while eliminating the option of negative COVID tests, despite the fact that fully vaccinated people can still catch and spread the virus.

The domestic passports have proven highly controversial in France, where police were seen earlier this week checking the medical papers of people sitting outside at cafes.

As we previously highlighted, some lockdown advocates appear to be upset that the restrictions might not make a return, with a Guardian journalist writing about how he is “going to miss being locked down.”

end

UK

UK’s KFC tells us that they have a shortage of menu items.

(zerohedge)

“KFC Crisis” Unfolds Across UK As Shortage Of Menu Items Forces People To Call Police

 
FRIDAY, AUG 13, 2021 – 04:15 AM

The entire restaurant industry is facing supply chain issues. Taco Bell, Starbucks, and McDonald’s have been some of the most recent fast-food companies to warn customers about limited menu items or shortages. 

The latest is everyone’s favorite, KFC, which has warned UK customers that some menu items “aren’t available or our packaging might look different.” 

KFC UK tweeted a statement Wednesday that read:

Just a heads up that across our country, there’s been some disruption over the last few weeks – so things may be a little different when you next visit us.

You might find some items aren’t available or our packaging might look a little different to normal. We know it’s not ideal, but we’re working hard to keep things running smoothly. In the meantime, please be patient with our incredible teams… they’re doing a brilliant job despite the disruption.

We can’t wait to see you soon for your next fried chicken fix. 

Thanks for understanding.

The statement did not disclose which menu items are affected or the source of the disruption. 

According to The Independent, the shortage of menu items caused a large enough uproar that London’s Metropolitan Police was forced to publish a tweet about the “KFC Crisis.” 

Please do not contact us about the #KFCCrisis – it is not a police matter if your favourite eatery is not serving the menu that you desire.

Meanwhile, in the US, Chipotle, Chick-fil-A, Popeyes, Taco Bell, Starbucks, And McDonald’s are also experiencing shortages of menu items, ingredients, and packaging. 

A tightening of key supplies at fast-food restaurants across the Western world appears to be causing headaches for millions of people who can’t feast on high sodium junk food that leads to heart problems down the road. 

People should try shopping at their local farmers’ markets or supermarkets to source better quality food than relying on a fast-food from mega corporations. 

end 

 

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

LEBANON

This is your next country that will go into hyperinflation. The country is in an economic tailspin as they lack dire fuel and have electricity shortages.

(zero hedge)

Beirut Goes Dark As Economic Tailspin Sees Dire Fuel & Electricity Shortages 

 
THURSDAY, AUG 12, 2021 – 11:45 PM

Starting Wednesday night Lebanon’s Central Bank announced that fuel subsidies have been halted, already at a moment where there’s been scarcity of both gas and electricity. Fuel prices are expected to at least quadruple, leading to a national scramble for fuel, exacerbating rolling blackouts akin to what’s become the tragic “norm” of recent years in neighboring war-torn Syrian.

International reports are underscoring that the enduring economic crisis beginning in 2019 which sparked a year of mass protests and a currency crisis, and subsequent failed attempts to stave off total collapse amid a drastic “shock” change in government, are now coming to a head, sending already impoverished areas of the country of nearly seven million spiraling into steadily worsened conditions.

Regional director of humanitarian aid NGO Crisis Group, Heiko Wimmen, was cited in CNN as saying “This is obviously going to ripple through the whole economy.” He emphasized that seemingly overnight basic staples that support daily life have now become a “luxury”.

“For a large part of the population, electricity will become a luxury. Driving your car will become a luxury, too. Transportation will become a luxury,” Wimmen added.

The cutting of subsidies was expected, but still a “shock” nonetheless. Like everything else in Lebanon energy has been severely mismanaged, after already the government suspended lines of credit to fuel importers.

 

AFP

So the sudden liberalization of fuel prices meant whole villages, towns, and parts of cities were plunged into darkness overnight as not even generators could keep the lights on:

The ripple effects of the decision came before the decision itself. Petrol stations across the country shuttered. Highways became clogged by long lines that snaked out of the few petrol pumps that remained open. Many bakeries have closed. Factories, including one that supplies the majority of Lebanon’s intravenous lines to hospitals, closed. They blamed diesel exhaustion.

Several towns and neighborhoods, already suffering from the effects of long outages from state electricity, lost access to diesel, which is needed to power backup generators, and were plunged into darkness.

Over past months there were increasing scenes of astoundingly long lines at gas stations, with fights and disputes over supplies becoming almost routine. 

And it appears rolling blackouts have even hit Beirut International Airport, which is a major hub for the entire region…

Even food and medicines are now running scarce, as The New York Times detailed this week: “The supply of medicines has also become unreliable. At a pharmacy, a line stretched, where anxious shoppers sought medicines that are now scarce, such as pain killers & blood pressure meds.”

By all accounts things look to get worse before they get better – and compounding all this remains US and EU sanctions on both Lebanon and Syria.

END

TALIBAN/AFGHANISTAN

(DITZ//ANTIWAR,COM)

US Asks Taliban To ‘Spare’ Its Embassy In Coming Kabul Battle

 
FRIDAY, AUG 13, 2021 – 10:49 AM

Authored by Jason Ditz via AntiWar.com,

As Afghanistan continues to fall apart at the seams, the Taliban invasion of Kabul appears imminent, and the odds of the Ghani government handling that attack are not good. This has the US considering what to do about its embassy there.

Early in the day, officials talked openly about the idea that the embassy would be relocated to the Kabul Airport, to make it easier to evacuate outright if the security situation gets any worse. The situation getting worse seems inevitable.

 

Getty Images

Indeed, the Biden Administration is sending some 3,000 troops to Kabul to facilitate the evacuation, and is planning to remove all but the core staff. The troops are scheduled to arrive within 48 hours.

Even that may not be enough, however, and negotiator Zalmay Khalilzad is turning to the Taliban to try to prevail upon them to spare the US Embassy from attack if and when Kabul gets hit.

The exchange here is that the Taliban would promise not to attack the embassy, and that the US would keep open the possibility of giving foreign aid to the Taliban government in the future. The US, of course, did provide aid to the Taliban before the invasion and occupation.

That this is publicly being put on the table at all is interesting, as US officials talking about the possible evacuation earlier in the day were insisting that if the Taliban took over Afghanistan “with guns” they’d never be eligible for US aid.

That’s not a total shock, as the US historically throws aid around to almost everyone for the sake of influence. Still, holding it out publicly to the Taliban mid-takeover underscores how cynically they view the fall of Afghanistan for the sake of aid. US law would frown upon sending aid to the Taliban militants after the takeover, but as has been the case after recent coups in places like Egypt, what the law says doesn’t always impact policy.

end

Kandahar falls and the Taliban are now only 30 miles from Kabul

(zerohedge)

Taliban Now 30 Miles From Kabul As Terrifying “March On Capital” Begins

 
FRIDAY, AUG 13, 2021 – 01:20 PM

The big international headlining story this week has been the Taliban’s lighting fast gobbling up of Afghan territory amid the Biden ordered complete US troop withdrawal by the symbolic date of September 11. As we observed previously, it’s looking to get very awkward fast given the Taliban at this rate will be in control of the entire country by that date, making any ‘mission accomplished’ type speech given by Biden a total humiliation before the teleprompter so much as gets rolling.

As of yesterday the Taliban established itself a mere 90 miles south of Kabul, after capturing a major highway between the Afghan capital of Kandahar (the latter is now in complete Taliban control), given its taking of the provincial capital Ghazni along the highway. The Taliban now has at least 18 provincial capitals under its belt, which makes up well over two-thirds of the geographic country. On Friday there are new reports theTaliban are now a mere 30 miles from Kabul, putting the Islamists in direct striking distance as preparations for a major offensive begin, and as the US embassy has been ordered evacuated. 

Taliban advance, source: BBC

Russian state sources are citing humanitarian aid workers in the country who say that not only are Taliban fighters just outside the capital, but the sprawling city of four-and-a-half million people areexperiencing rolling power outages. For example, ATMs are reported down across parts of the capital as all foreigners and anyone who can scramble to make contingency plans put them into effect.

“Taliban forces are now operating just 50 km [31 miles] from Kabul and have cut power cables leading into the city, depriving it of electricity, Luca Lo Presti, president of Pangea, an Italian humanitarian organisation which operates in Afghanistan, has told Sputnik.”

Presti was quoted as saying: “We are very worried, because the Taliban are within 50 km of Kabul. This morning they cut the cables for electricity, the city is almost completely isolated.”

This assessment is consistent with the latest Wall Street Journal reporting, which has sounded the alarm that the Taliban is preparing for the final “march of the capital”:

The Taliban completed the seizure of Kandahar, Afghanistan’s second-largest city and the Islamist movement’s birthplace, and took into custody a warlord who organized the failed defenses of the western city of Herat.

Combined with other advances, including the capture of the provincial capital of Helmand, the fall of these two major cities has given the Taliban full control of southern and western Afghanistan, allowing the insurgent movement to pool its forces for a final march on Kabul.

Time lapse map shows lighting-fast pace of the Taliban’s recapturing two-thirds of the country that America spent over 20 years occupying…

Despite prior US intelligence assessments predicting Kabul’s fall “within six months” or even the latest forecast of “one month to 90 days” – it’s increasingly looking like a rapid Taliban blitz on the capital could begin as soon as this weekend or next week.

What’s becoming increasingly obvious is that the rapid jihadist gains are due in large part to US-trained Afghan national forces frequently retreating with little or no resistance put up whatsoever. What’s also clear is that US Empire is in retreat, humiliated after following the course that all empires have in central Asia, going back to Alexander the Great.

END

I can just hear the Neocons stating that this was money well spent

(zerohedge)

20 Years Of War In Afghanistan Has Cost US Taxpayers Over $2.2 Trillion

 
FRIDAY, AUG 13, 2021 – 12:45 PM

Just a reminder that as the D.C. think tank pundit class of chicken-hawk keyboard warriors and armchair interventionistas who helped get the US into this unnecessary ‘forever war’ in the first place writhe in frustration and pain while beholding from afar the American Empire in rapid retreat in Afghanistan, the US has wasted literally trillions over years propping up a government that now appears to barely be putting up a fight.

“From its start in 2001 through April 2021, the war in Afghanistan has cost U.S. taxpayers approximately $2.261 trillion, according to estimates earlier this year from the Costs of War Project at Brown University,” Fox News reviews of the disturbingly high figures. All that as the US public now sits back and witnesses US-trained Afghan forces retreat “without a bullet being fired”

And further as a number of veterans and independent analysts are now pointing out“The Pentagon spent $88 billion dollars training the Afghan Army for 20 years It collapsed in 1 month.” It remains that “Not one general or politician will face consequences for this.”

Meanwhile as of Friday morning after the Taliban had already captured about a dozen major cities and provincial capitals in a mere week, spurring emergency evacuation efforts to begin at the US embassy in Kabul (in preparation for the inevitable), the Taliban is now in control of the country’s second largest city of Kandahar, along with Herat – the latter being the third largest.

The Pentagon late in the day Thursday confirmed it was sending up to 3,000 troops to assist in the evacuation of diplomatic and other staff from the large Kabul embassy. The embassy typically has thousands of Americans working there at any given moment, including over 1,000 deemed ‘diplomats’.

Thus a significant logistics and security effort will ensue to get most of them to the international airport, also as the US State Department urges any remaining US citizen anywhere in the country to depart immediately, even offering to pay the airfare back to the states.

* * *

Here’s Rabobank’s commentary of the currently unfolding Afghan disaster…

But tumble the cards will, nonetheless, and quicker than people think – and very uncomfortably.

For a physical example, after 20 years of war, $2 trillion in spending, and many lives lost, on 14 April, US President Biden announced a full US troop withdrawal from Afghanistan. On 2 July, US forces left Bagram airbase overnight. The comfortable thinkers in comfortable jobs in DC were sure the well-funded, US-trained Afghan army would defeat the Taliban: instead, they fled, or handed their weapons over to them. The Taliban are now threatening Kabul, and the US is sending 3,000 troops back in order to evacuate all of its citizens and its embassy, reminiscent of the 1975 helicopter retreat from Saigon.

This is not a political critique of the decision to withdraw. The key point is that the expensive US presence in Afghanistan was –like the QE that ironically paid for a slice of it– just a house of cards, for all of the comfortable DC assumptions otherwise.

The second point is that the geostrategic ramifications of this event will reverberate for years. Markets could care less: but they may well care about some of the uncomfortable potential outcomes, from renewed terrorism to refugee flows to war: and all the powers in the region, from China to Russia to India to Pakistan to Iran, will have an interest in what happens in the country – as will the US.

On one level, this is a humiliation for a US already being told its position as global hegemon is in tatters. Then again, the States survived the 1975 debacle and came back even stronger. More near term, what is happening in Afghanistan may mean less US flexibility over negotiations with Iran —which has just agreed to join the Shanghai Cooperation Council— though that is far from certain given the obvious US imperative to disentangle itself from the Greater Middle East regardless. More importantly, however, it suggests the risk of the US being far more likely to draw red lines in the Indo-Pacific so the Afghan retreat does not define its approach to security guarantees in that region. And red lines open up fat-tail geopolitical risk scenarios that comfortable markets don’t want to look at.

end

IRAQ/IRAN

the blind leading the blind? Iran has been supplying electricity to Iraq.  However huge water shortages has caused Iran to halt exports to Iraq and now both are in the dark

Kennedy/OilPrice.com

Baghdad Says Iran Halted Electricity Exports To Iraq

 
FRIDAY, AUG 13, 2021 – 01:40 PM

Authored by Charles Kennedy via OilPrice.com,

Reduced hydropower output in Iran amid a water scarcity has prompted Tehran to suspend electricity exports to neighboring Iraq, which relies on Iranian power and gas supply, Iraq’s Electricity Minister Adil Kareem was quoted as saying by Iranian Mehr News Agency this week.

Major Iraqi power plants are dependent on Iranian natural gas supply, and Iraq also imports electricity from Iran, as Baghdad’s power generation is not enough to ensure domestic supply, especially with crumbling infrastructure and 110-plus degrees Fahrenheit in the summer.

Even after the U.S. slapped sanctions on Iran’s energy exports in 2018, Iraq continues to import natural gas and electricity from Iran under a special waiver that the United States has regularly extended to Iraq.   

But this year, Iran is also suffering from power shortages and power outages as consumption soars, while power generation has declined.

Earlier this year, Iran banned the use of air conditioning at Tehran’s state agencies as the country looks to save electricity consumption and prioritize electricity supply to homes and hospitals. Tehran Power Distribution Company has said that the use of air conditioners at government agencies in the capital is prohibited to ease the pressure on the electricity distribution network during peak hours.

The government is looking to prioritize electricity supply to residential areas and hospitals after Iran’s hydropower generation slumped this year because of a lack of rainfall.

Iraq’s previous Electricity Minister Majed Mahdi Hantoosh resigned in June after cuts to Iranian electricity exports to Iraq led to protests and fears of instability in Iraq over frequent power outages in scorching temperatures.

“We have not received any energy from Iran for a month, and without Iranian gas Iraq would face a disaster,” Iraq’s Kareem said at the end of July.

Iraq’s Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi said earlier in July that there was no hope of a quick resolution to the power shortage problem.

end

6.Global Issues

CORONAVIRUS UPDATE

https://www.jpost.com/health-science/could-this-drug-stop-the-progress-of-covid-19-new-research-indicates-yes-676558cp

Another discovery from Israel: Molnupiravir which has the potential to prevent hospitalization.  This has been given to mild or moderate patients.

(Jerusalem Post/Hoffman)

US drug can stop progress of COVID-19 – Israeli research

Orally available antiviral drug candidate Molnupiravir has the potential to prevent hospitalization if it is given to mild or moderate patients.

Colorful of tablets and capsules pill in blister packaging arranged with beautiful pattern with flare light. Pharmaceutical industry concept. Pharmacy drugstore. Antibiotic drug resistance (photo credit: INGIMAGE)
Colorful of tablets and capsules pill in blister packaging arranged with beautiful pattern with flare light. Pharmaceutical industry concept. Pharmacy drugstore. Antibiotic drug resistance
(photo credit: INGIMAGE)
 
Some 50% of the patients needed have been recruited to complete a Phase III trial of an American-developed drug that “might be a game changer” in the battle against COVID-19, says Hadassah University Medical Center’s Prof. Yosef Caraco.
Caraco told The Jerusalem Post that his team recently completed its part of a successful Phase II trial of the orally available antiviral drug candidate Molnupiravir, developed by Merck Pharmaceuticals (legally known internationally as MSD),  a drug meant to slow the progression of coronavirus from mild to severe disease.
The professor presented the data from the study at the European Congress of Clinical Microbiology & Infectious Diseases in July. The study was conducted at 80 medical centers around the world in which about 300 coronavirus patients in mild or moderate condition took part. Some received Molnupiravir and others a placebo.
“The general conclusion from this stage is that, first of all, the drug is safe,” Caraco said. “We did not observe anything unusual. We also saw that those who were treated by the drug were less likely to need hospitalization compared to those who received a placebo.”
As such, he said, “We can cautiously say that the drug has the potential to prevent hospitalization if it is given to mildly or moderately ill patients, especially if given early in the course of the disease.”
The Phase II trial ran from late fall of 2020 through April 2021. The Phase III trial that started in June is expected to last another few months. Fifty percent of the patients have already been recruited, Caraco said.
He added that the drug is active against the coronavirus and can stop infection from progressing from mild or moderate to severe.
 
“Up until now, we have been very busy trying to research drugs to treat the most severe patients in the hospital,” Caraco said. “This is quite obvious because we are speaking about people at risk of death.”
However, he said that after all this time, the results have not been encouraging. While doctors are using a cocktail of drugs to treat severe COVID-19, what they found is that the most important aspect in the prognosis of these patients is the level of intensive care treatment that they can provide.
“The success rate of all of these drugs we have been trying is really disappointing,” he said.
Molnupiravir is an effort to change the course of treatment, turning attention to the nearly 90% of COVID patients that are in mild or moderate condition.
“The idea is that if we can treat them, we can prevent the progression to severe disease,” Caraco explained. “This is a total change in the way we are trying to tackle the disease. This is a paradigm change.”
The Phase III study involves many more patients. Caraco said it has been challenging to reach these patients in Israel, as many have already been vaccinated and therefore do not qualify for the study. In addition, most patients who have mild symptoms think they can “take Tylenol and tea” and the virus will disappear on its own.
“The average mild patient thinks, ‘Why should I get any treatment? I was told this is a simple and easy disease,’” Caraco explained.
 
But he said that if the Phase III trial validates the findings of the Phase II trial, “this is going to be a game changer… When there is a plague, the most important and efficient way to struggle against it is to prevent it. That is why we are giving so much attention to the vaccines. But the vaccines are not 100% foolproof. The next best thing to preventing infection is preventing deterioration.”
He said the research team also hypothesizes that the drug could help reduce the contagiousness of the patients and therefore the likelihood of their spreading the virus to household contacts. They also believe it might have a positive impact on preventing long COVID.
“If we can avoid deterioration to a more severe disease,” Caraco concluded, “this could also alleviate the fear of these patients ending up in the hospital as severe patients.”
 
END
 
This is an extremely important commentary.  Meet your next variant that will hit the uSA: the Lambda variant.
Let me explain:
 
The original COVID 19 virus is man made and if we let it alone it would have basically died off and in one year morph into the common cold (Dr Luc Montagnier/Nobel Prize Winner 2008).  However due to the rush for vaccines, the virus did their selection process and out came the alpha variant, and then the dominant Delta. The Delta is less resistant to vaccines but more transmissible.  It is not more lethal.  As the Delta variant dies off, we now have a new strain forming, the Lambda variant which no doubt will be totally resistant to the vaccines but again more transmissible.  There will be no stopping variants forming unless we stop vaccine jabs.  The Lambda variant is already in South America and bird brain Biden is allowing migrants with positive COVID testing to enter the uSA.
(zerohedge)

New Studies Suggest Lambda Variant Could Be Vaccine-Resistant

 
THURSDAY, AUG 12, 2021 – 07:25 PM

Two separate studies have concluded that the latest Covid-19 fearpocalypse – the Lambda strain – may be vaccine resistant, as well as more infectious than the original alpha strain of SARS-CoV-2.

No word on how people with preexisting natural immunity fare against Lambda.

As the New York Post reports, a not-yet peer-reviewed study out of Japan published on July 28 concludes that the C.37 Lambda variant is defeating the ‘leaky’ vaccine at an alarming rate.

The strain has been contained in 26 countries, including substantial outbreaks in Chile, Peru, Argentina and Ecuador.

“Notably, the vaccination rate in Chile is relatively high; the percentage of the people who received at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine was [about] 60%,” the authors write.

Nevertheless, a big COVID-19 surge has occurred in Chile in Spring 2021, suggesting that the Lambda variant is proficient in escaping from the antiviral immunity elicited by vaccination,” they warn. –New York Post

The new variant is thought to have emerged between November and December 2020 in South America, and has since emerged in countries throughout Europe, North America and Asia according to data from GISAID. That said, it’s only around one-tenth of 1% of cases in America, around 911 so far.

“In addition to increasing viral infectivity, the Delta variant exhibits higher resistance to the vaccine-induced neutralization,” wrote the authors, adding “Similarly, here we showed that the Lambda variant equips not only increased infectivity but also resistance against antiviral immunity.”

In a similar not-yet peer-reviewed study out of Chile, investigators concluded “that mutations present in the spike protein of the lambda variant of interest confer increased infectivity and immune escape from neutralizing antibodies elicited by CoronaVac.”

CoronaVac is a vaccine manufactured by a Chinese company and that’s used in Peru. The study continues: “These data reinforce the idea that massive vaccination campaigns in countries with high SARS-CoV-2 circulation must be accompanied by strict genomic surveillance allowing the identification of new isolates carrying spike mutations and immunology studies aimed to determine the impact of these mutations in immune escape and vaccines breakthrough.”

Of note, Peru has the highest Covid-19 death rate of any country in the world – around 600 for every 100,000 people, about double the next highest country, Hungary. Around 81% of cases in Peru since April were the lambda variant, according to the WHO.

The news comes amid an Axios report that the Pfizer vaccine was just 42% effective in July – when the Delta variant was dominant. Meanwhile, 40% of migrants bused into Laredo, Texas are Covid-positive.

The next time you hear Fauci, Biden or Psaki warn how scary the Lambda strain is, ask yourself why they won’t close the border – or mandate the ‘efficacy challenged’ vaccines they’ve bet the farm on.

END

From the very prestigious Journal of Infection

The authors explain that ADE is forming due to vaccinated people harbouring the COVID virus (DELTA).  Vaccinated people has higher titers  (viral loads) and due to improper binding of the antibody to the virus, the body’s own defense mechanism goes haywire and your own antibodies attack your body. This is ADE and this cytokine storm can be fatal. Ivermectin, HCQ, high doses of Vitamin D and zinc and prevent this from happening

a very important read..

(Journal of Infection)

special thanks from Robert H who sent this to us

Breaking News, URGENT: We Have a Literal Catastrophe – Antibody Dependent Enhancement DETECTED with COVID-19

 
Breaking News, URGENT: We Have a Literal Catastrophe - Antibody Dependent Enhancement DETECTED with COVID-19

Persons who have been VACCINATED against COVID-19 are now subject to Antibody-Dependent Enhancement which is highly likely to . . . kill them. 

This is the absolute worst-case scenario with any vaccine.  People who took the vax should be quarantined and isolated immediately.

The “Journal of Infection” is a monthly peer-reviewed medical journal in the field of infectious disease, covering microbiology, epidemiology and clinical practice. Established in 1979, the journal was initially published quarterly by Academic Press. The first editor was Hillas Smith.  

The Journal is the cutting-edge of information for Doctors specializing in Infectious Diseases.  It is considered a “must read” each month by Infectious Disease Specialists.

On August 9, The Journal of Infection published a peer-reviewed study titled:

Infection-enhancing anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies recognize both the original Wuhan/D614G strain and Delta variants. A potential risk for mass vaccination

This study revealed the terrifying news to the world:

Antibody dependent enhancement (ADE) of infection is a safety concern for vaccine strategies. In a recent publication, Li et al. (Cell 184 :1-17, 2021) have reported that infection-enhancing antibodies directed against the N-terminal domain (NTD) of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein facilitate virus infection in vitro, but not in vivo. However, this study was performed with the original Wuhan/D614G strain.

Since the Covid-19 pandemic is now dominated with Delta variants, we analyzed the interaction of facilitating antibodies with the NTD of these variants.

Using molecular modelling approaches, we show that enhancing antibodies have a higher affinity for Delta variants than for Wuhan/D614G NTDs. We show that enhancing antibodies reinforce the binding of the spike trimer to the host cell membrane by clamping the NTD to lipid raft microdomains.

This stabilizing mechanism may facilitate the conformational change that induces the demasking of the receptor binding domain. As the NTD is also targeted by neutralizing antibodies, our data suggest that the balance between neutralizing and facilitating antibodies in vaccinated individuals is in favor of neutralization for the original Wuhan/D614G strain.

However, in the case of the Delta variant, neutralizing antibodies have a decreased affinity for the spike protein, whereas facilitating antibodies display a strikingly increased affinity.

Thus, ADE may be a concern for people receiving vaccines based on the original Wuhan strain spike sequence (either mRNA or viral vectors).

 

Antibody Dependent Enhancement (ADE) is every virologists worst nightmare. It means the vaccine does the opposite of what was intended.

“In antibody-dependent enhancement, sub-optimal antibodies bind to both viruses and gamma receptors expressed on immune cells, then promoting infection of these cells.”  In other words, your immune cells themselves BECOME infected and carry the virus.

Vaccinated antibodies will be a trojan horse that gives the virus entry into cells. ALL CELLS. The whole human body.

We will see massive sickness and death within the vaccinated. Boosters will likely make the situation even worse.

Quote: “ Thus, ADE may be a concern for people receiving vaccines based on the original Wuhan strain spike sequence (either mRNA or viral vectors).” Translation: The shot makes a subsequent Infection “strikingly” worse (their words) and everybody was vaxxed using the original strain.

By the way, given that ADE from MRNA in animal trials killed all of them, the word “concern” is a euphemism for “fucking scared.”

Quote: “ the possibility of ADE should be further investigated as it may represent a potential risk for mass vaccination during the current Delta variant pandemic.” Further investigated. Yeah right… when? By whom?  The same Quacks that gave us all this trouble in the first place?

Quote: “ Since the Covid-19 pandemic is now dominated with Delta variants.”

So … this is a “concern” for anyone taking the first shot (actually everyone) as mass vax is a risk for the Delta variant which is now the dominant variety.

The world now has the worst case scenario.  We have it BECAUSE of the vaccine.

It is almost laughable that the study authors say a second, different vax should be developed.   Well . . . . after most of the people who took Vax 1.0 are dead from ADE, do they really think anyone, anywhere, will trust them with Vax 2.0?

Below is a screen shot of the entire study in case someone decides to hide it.   A direct link to the study on the original web site is HERE

Bottom Line: People who got the vaccine, when they encounter the virus in real life, will not likely survive because their own immune system becomes infected and carries the disease absolutely everywhere in their body.  The immune system itself becomes the actual viral carrier.

DO NOT TAKE THE VACCINE.  

end

Robert H….

Musing

 

>
> Earlier this morning I sent out an email regarding the latest to come out on the virus which is downright scary. Is it often written as far as I know, viruses mutate. And viruses want to live just like most things in nature do. So it’s normal to assume that they will try and defeat a particular vaccine that stops them. And there is no such proof in view. We hear the lips of the likes of Fauci who flip flops more than a penguin sliding across ice.
>
> This whole narrative showing that the world once vaccinated is protected is an out right lie and complete  disinformation. If we lived in a normal society where truth mattered then we would see the truth come out and not this false narrative. Sadly, we do not. And we are left to learn and critically examine information even if we know little about the subject to make a informed decision.
>
> It’s been written numerous times that various pets have been infected as well as animals in zoos etc. One assumes that if animals can be infected then it’s impossible to eradicate the virus since it can mutate and jump to animals and then perhaps jump to humans. Well I don’t know how this all works in a finite way, but is happening in real time. And this is contrary to what this vaccine passport nonsense is about. I assume that the only thing that defends you is a strong immune system and working through the virus in order to survive and develop herd immunity. Because it’s clear to getting vaccinated means nothing but a profit to a drug company.
> So what happens if we lose even only 2% or 5% of the population to this virus and perhaps more as it seems prevalent now the vaccinated people are more likely to die from this virus than those who are unvaccinated. There is no research to fully comprehend this, nor to figure out what to do. One does wonder if perhaps a reason to push everybody getting vaccinated is not to have blame directed at those who’ve been pushing this agenda. Blame game is coming to a theatre nearby and it will get ugly. Once the majority of people figure out the reality that harm has been done to them by the political machine and drug companies the chaos and protests you see now will turn into something most ugly as vengeance becomes the cry of the mobs that come. And they will come. And no, the police will not protect the politicians once they realize their own families have been harmed. You can see this already with firefighters and the like siding with the public. The day will come when certain burning buildings do not see relief. This will be history repeating. Sad but true as the public realizes it has the numbers to rebel in size and thus might. Even now in Canada we see lawsuits work their way through the system in Alberta and in British Columbia.
>
> To me the largest single threat to humanity in the world we’ve known isn’t that we may lose a very significant part of the population to the virus, It is that we will disrupt the normal workings of society to an extent where any return to the world we’ve known as impossible. No one has written extensively on what happens when a large percentage of the population simply is nonexistent anymore on a global scale. If we assume that we’ve had numerous problems for supply chains the date, we were totally unprepared for what is coming. We also need to consider what happens when investors in financial markets realize the extent of the devastation they will suffer globally due to population loss. What business where any sort of technical or operational skills required can afford to lose 5% or 10% of their workforce with a direct consequence?
>
> As it is now, many small to medium sized business are having huge problems finding people willing to work. Yes, there are some people who have taken to the idea of free hand outs while everyone else pays higher taxes for their carefree choice. And then there are those who receive payments while working elsewhere and think it is ok to double dip. Perhaps this is innovative thinking but it all costs someone, and usually ends up in increased taxes. How many businesses are ready or even anticipate a serious reduction in skilled personnel to keep their businesses operating. Then there is the  demand quotient that is reduced by an equal amount affecting consumption and there by real-time economic activity. Are we ready for this ?
>
 
Michael Every on the major stories of the day!
 
 
 
Michael Every..

Rabobank: Very Soon Our Comfortable Market Narrative Will Collapse Like A House Of Cards

 
FRIDAY, AUG 13, 2021 – 10:15 AM

By Michael Every of Rabobank

The US PPI print yesterday laid bare the surge in input costs still coming through the pipeline, most notably in that while the headline was up 1.0% m/m, almost double expectations, and 7.8% y/y, the core component ex- food and energy also spiked 0.9% m/m and 6.2% y/y. As we have already seen in China, somebody is going to have to swallow that. Will it be producers, compressing their margins? Or will it be consumers, depressing their real incomes? Considering around 25% of capacity at China’s third-busiest port just closed down again due to Covid-19, which will push global shipping further past its limits just as the US needs to restock for Black Friday and Xmas, the one thing that does not seem likely is a rapid drop-off in supply-side inflation.

That underlying dynamic is not new. Neither is the market’s lack of concern about it, with US stocks at a fresh all-time high: apparently it does not matter if margins are compressed, or real consumer incomes fall. Neither is the will-they/won’t-they of US fiscal stimulus. And neither is Fed speak suggesting tapering soon, this time from Daly, who doesn’t want to dilly-dally: which stands in complete contrast to what Fed Chair Powell says and does when he is in the spotlight.

The key point is that not long from now, our narrative is going to collapse like a house of cards. Either fiscal stimulus will happen and consumer inflation follows producer inflation higher, and we get Fed tapering and a move towards higher rates – and it is a complete mess in liquidity-addicted markets; or fiscal stimulus will happen, etc., and the Fed still doesn’t taper and move towards higher rates – and it is a completely different mess in liquidity-addicted markets; or fiscal stimulus won’t happen and consumer inflation follows producer inflation higher, so stagflation, and the Fed does not react – and we get happy markets but a complete mess in a society promised (Build Back) Better.

Until those cards come tumbling down, we can cling to our comfortable delusions supported by comfortable theories and comfortable gibberish, peddled by comfortable people in comfortable jobs, with comfortable pensions or comfortable after-dinner speaking fees. But tumble the cards will, nonetheless, and quicker than people think – and very uncomfortably.

For a physical example, after 20 years of war, $2 trillion in spending, and many lives lost, on 14 April, US President Biden announced a full US troop withdrawal from Afghanistan. On 2 July, US forces left Bagram airbase overnight. The comfortable thinkers in comfortable jobs in DC were sure the well-funded, US-trained Afghan army would defeat the Taliban: instead, they fled, or handed their weapons over to them. The Taliban are now threatening Kabul, and the US is sending 3,000 troops back in order to evacuate all of its citizens and its embassy, reminiscent of the 1975 helicopter retreat from Saigon.

This is not a political critique of the decision to withdraw. The key point is that the expensive US presence in Afghanistan was –like the QE that ironically paid for a slice of it– just a house of cards, for all of the comfortable DC assumptions otherwise. The second point is that the geostrategic ramifications of this event will reverberate for years. Markets could care less: but they may well care about some of the uncomfortable potential outcomes, from renewed terrorism to refugee flows to war: and all the powers in the region, from China to Russia to India to Pakistan to Iran, will have an interest in what happens in the country – as will the US.

On one level, this is a humiliation for a US already being told its position as global hegemon is in tatters. Then again, the States survived the 1975 debacle and came back even stronger. More near term, what is happening in Afghanistan may mean less US flexibility over negotiations with Iran —which has just agreed to join the Shanghai Cooperation Council— though that is far from certain given the obvious US imperative to disentangle itself from the Greater Middle East regardless. More importantly, however, it suggests the risk of the US being far more likely to draw red lines in the Indo-Pacific so the Afghan retreat does not define its approach to security guarantees in that region. And red lines open up fat-tail geopolitical risk scenarios that comfortable markets don’t want to look at.

Even avoiding red lines on maps, there are red lines in calendars. We have:

  • The looming deadline for US intelligence to release their conclusions on the origins of Covid-19 – though it appears the CIA will reach the comfortable conclusion that they cannot say;

  • The Phase One Trade Deal lapses in December, with no sign of anything to replace it;

  • The White House has to decide if it will invite Taiwan to attend its upcoming summit of democracies, which is a red line for Beijing. The Global Times states that if this happens, Chinese fighters will overfly not just Taiwanese airspace, but the island itself. (And who will attend the summit given controversies over liberal vs illiberal democracy is another Manichean headache); and

  • There is the White House decision over what position to take on the Beijing Winter Olympics.

Still sitting comfortably, everyone?

Meanwhile, as markets absorb –or ignore– yesterday’s clear message from Beijing that China will see far greater nationalist/populist state regulation and policy centralization until at least 2025, with enormous implications locally and globally, the US is already pivoting further in terms of its policy response. As Bloomberg reports, “CIA Weighing Creating Special China Unit in Bid to Out-Spy Beijing”, with the CIA Director talking of “intensified focus and urgency.” This is the same agency that was probably telling President Biden the Afghan army was capable of holding off the Taliban six weeks ago. However, it is an uncomfortable sign of the underlying US-China dynamic when the spooks get big new funding.

So uncomfortable that I am sure markets will ignore it all completely. Markets are best at that after all. For a physical example, see The Guardian back in 2010, talking of ‘Kabul’s glitzy property boom’; or 2011’s ‘Afghanistan: The Surprising Destination for Luxury Real Estate’; or 2013’s ‘Afghan suburbia: Luxury construction boom grips Kabul despite uncertain future’; and this website is still offering luxury property for sale in Kabul – for now.

Happy Friday. For the comfortable ones anyway.

7. OIL ISSUES

8 EMERGING MARKET& AUSTRALIA ISSUES

Australia//COVID/VACCINES

end

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings FRIDAY  morning 7:30 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1762 UP .0062 /EUROPE BOURSES /ALL GREEN  

USA/ YEN 110.21  DOWN  0.189 /NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.3818  UP   0.0008  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/

USA/CAN 1.2519  DOWN .0009  (  CDN DOLLAR UP 9 BASIS PT )

 

Early FRIDAY morning in Europe, the Euro IS UP BY 26 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.1762 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 8.44 PTS OR 0.24%

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 126.20 PTS OR 0.48%

 

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.47% // EUROPEAN BOURSES OPENED ALL GREEN 

 

Trading from Europe and ASIA

EUROPEAN BOURSES CLOSED ALL GREEN 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG  CLOSED DOWN 126.20    PTS OR 0.48% 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 8.44  PTS OR 0.24% 

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP .47%

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 37.87 pts or 0.14% 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE  GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1760.05

silver:$23.42-

Early FRIDAY morning USA 10 year bond yr: 1.341% !!! DOWN 2 IN POINTS from THURSDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

The 30 yr bond yield 1.999 DOWN 3  IN BASIS POINTS from THURSDAY night.

USA dollar index early FRIDAY morning: 92.94 UP 0  CENT(S) from THURSDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers FRIDAY MORNING

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And now your closing  FRIDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.11% DOWN 0  in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.024%  DOWN 0   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.22%//  DOWN 1  in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:  0.56  UP 1   points in basis points yield from yesterday./

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 34 points higher than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.463% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.02% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR  FRIDAY

Closing currency crosses for FRIDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1795  UP    0.0061 or 61 basis points

USA/Japan: 109.77  DOWN .629 OR YEN UP 63  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3858 UP .0048 UP 48   BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar UP 9 basis points to 1.2510

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The USA/Yuan,  CNY: closed    ON SHORE  (CLOSED DOWN).. 6.4774 

 

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN DOWN)..6.4788

TURKISH LIRA:  8.66  EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.0249%

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 5 IN basis points from THURSDAY at 1.315 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 1.95 DOWN 8 in basis points on the day

 

Your closing USA dollar index, 92.54 DOWN 49  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for FRIDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 28.30 PTS OR 0.39% 

 

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 12.78 PTS OR 0.19% 

 

Paris CAC CLOSED UP 41.25  PTS OR  0.26% 

 

Spain IBEX CLOSED  UP 17.60  PTS OR  0.10%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 97.13 PTS OR 0.34% 

 

WTI Oil price; 69.37 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 71.48 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE RISES:    73.21  THE CROSS LOWER BY 0.39 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE HIGHER BY .39 BASIS PTS)

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.463 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM : 67.94//

BRENT :  70.06

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 1.291.. DOWN 7 basis points…

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 1.933  DOWN 9 basis points..

EURO/USA 1.1795 UP 0.0060   ( 60 BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:109.58 UP .821 ( YEN DOWN 82 BASIS POINTS/..

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 92.52  DOWN 52  cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.3871  UP 59  POINTS

the Turkish lira close: 8.53  UP 3 BASIS PTS

the Russian rouble 73.23   UP 0.37 Roubles against the uSA dollar. (UP 37 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.2517 UP 2 BASIS pts

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.463%

The Dow closed UP 15.53 POINTS OR 0.04%

NASDAQ closed UP 47.69 POINTS OR 0.32%

VOLATILITY INDEX:  15.45 CLOSED DOWN 0.14

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 0.125%//libor dropping like a stone

USA trading day in Graph Form

Crypto Rips, Dollar Dips, & Stocks Hit Record Highs As Americans’ Confidence Collapses

 
FRIDAY, AUG 13, 2021 – 04:00 PM

If the stock market is a “forward-looking” mechanism, then the future it sees is very, very different from the ‘expectations’ that the average American has about what’s looming…

Source: Bloomberg

The last 6 times out of 7 (in the last 40 years) that sentiment crashed this hard, the US was in or entering a recession…but with stonks at record highs, how can that be?

Source: Bloomberg

Put another way…

On the week, The Dow outperformed (which has been relatively unusual) with Nasdaq breaking even and Small Caps tumbling. Notice that every day the cash open (this is 24hr futures data) was utter chaos before everything calmed down in general

Euro Stoxx 600 is once again outpacing the S&P this year (with its 10th consecutive record high in a row – the longest such streak since 1999)… and they are both crushing Chinese stocks…

Source: Bloomberg

The Russell 2000 failed to break and hold the 100DMA six times in the last two weeks and today saw it leg down to the lower end of its recent range…

Defensives outperformed Cyclicals on the week with the last two days dominating that shift (but both were higher on the week)…

Source: Bloomberg

Value outperformed Growth this week (though the last two days have seen Growth relatively bid)…

Source: Bloomberg

Materials and Staples outperformed on the week while Energy and Tech were the laggards…

Source: Bloomberg

Notably, this week saw the energy sector cap a 19-day streak in which no member of the index traded above its 50-day moving average, the second-longest span since the late-1950s, data compiled by SentimenTrader show. That’s something that hasn’t happened since the summer of 2001 when Enron and its ensuing bankruptcy was pressuring the energy complex.

Today’s bid for Treasuries erased any weakness on the week, pushing yields back to unchanged…

Source: Bloomberg

10Y Yields met resistance at around 1.36% which coincides with a critical post June FOMC plunge spike low in yields…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar plunged today starting around the European open, and accelerated on the confidence collapse. That drop took the reserve currency negative for the week, and erased most of last Friday’s payrolls print gains…

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos rallied this week, led by Ripple with Ether and Bitcoin up around 8-10%…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin rebounded strongly today after weakness yesterday, closing back above $46,000 (highest close since May)…

Source: Bloomberg

And Ethereum followed a similar trajectory, closing back above $3200, also the highest since May…

Source: Bloomberg

As the dollar dipped, gold ripped higher, erasing all of Sunday night’s flash crash and some of the payrolls plunge…

Given where real yields are (modestly lower, more negative this week), gold has more room to run here…

Source: Bloomberg

Oil was volatile on the week but circled back to around unchanged…

Finally, in case you wondered what was driving stocks, given that you must have been living under a rock – as confidence among the actual consumers is collapsing to 10 year lows…

Source: Bloomberg

…it’s simple… $30 trillion of global central bank liquidity (which has risen $10 trillion alone since the March 2020 lows)…

Source: Bloomberg

Is this as good as it gets?

Source: Bloomberg

Because, a lot of traders are betting on The Fed screwing things up bigly in the next few months

Source: Bloomberg

And will never raise rates (in fact they might cut them!)..

Source: Bloomberg

Don’t fight The Fed… until The Fed blows it all up.

MORNING TRADING

 

 

i) Important  data//morning//

American Consumer Sentiment Crashes Below COVID Crisis Lows, Inflation Fears Rebound

 
FRIDAY, AUG 13, 2021 – 10:08 AM

Following UMich’s sentiment slump in July, analysts expect a further (modest) slide in Americans’ confidence in preliminary August data this morning. They we were wrong, very wrong!

Sentiment crashed in early August data according to UMich Sentiment survey with the headline plunging from 81.2 to 70.0 – that is weaker than the April 2020 COVID crisis lows…

Source: Bloomberg

Worse still, ‘expectations’ collapsed too.

“just 32% of consumers thought that the economy would improve, well below last month’s 45% and the 50% in June”

Over the past half century, the Sentiment Index has only recorded larger losses in six other surveys, all connected to sudden negative changes in the economy: the only larger declines in the Sentiment Index occurred during the economy’s shutdown in April 2020 (-19.4%) and at the depths of the Great Recession in October 2008 (-18.1%).

Confidence collapsed for both Republicans and Democrats…

Source: Bloomberg

Even more ominously, while short-term inflation expectations eased very modestly, longer-term expectations rebounded back to multiyear highs (inflation was expected to average 3.0% over the next five years, up from 2.8% in the past two months, regaining the same level as in May.)…

Source: Bloomberg

And the inflation expectations have sent “bad” buying conditions expectations to record highs across all segments…

Source: Bloomberg

Presumably this is due to the Biden administration’s scaremongering response to the Delta variant (which obviously is due to white supremacist anti-vaxxers not being vaccinated)… except it’s not…

“Consumers have correctly reasoned that the economy’s performance will be diminished over the next several months, but the extraordinary surge in negative economic assessments also reflects an emotional response, mainly from dashed hopes that the pandemic would soon end,” Richard Curtin, director of the survey, said in the report.

end

A sudden drop in confidence has our pundits worried:  consumer spending which is 70% of GDP slides

(zerohedge)

“A Sudden Negative Change In The Economy”: Consumer Spending Slides As Majority Now Expect A New Slowdown

 
FRIDAY, AUG 13, 2021 – 02:00 PM

Today’s UMich Consumer Sentiment report was a painful eye-opener: as we noted earlier, following UMich’s sentiment slump in July, analysts expected a further (modest) slide in Americans’ confidence in preliminary August data this morning but they were very wrong as sentiment crashed in early August data according to UMich Sentiment survey with the headline plunging from 81.2 to 70.0 – that is weaker than the April 2020 COVID crisis lows, while expectations collapsed too.

As UMich economist Richard Curtin observed over the past half century the Sentiment Index has only recorded larger losses in six other surveys, all connected to sudden negative changes in the economy: the only larger declines in the Sentiment Index occurred during the economy’s shutdown in April 2020 (-19.4%) and at the depths of the Great Recession in October 2008 (-18.1%).

Furthermore, the sentiment shift wasn’t confined to just one demographic: the losses in early August were widespread across income, age, and education subgroups and observed across all regions. Moreover, the loses covered all aspects of the economy, from personal finances to prospects for the economy, including inflation and unemployment.

It was not exactly clear what prompted this collapse: on one hand Curtin said that “there is little doubt that the pandemic’s resurgence due to the Delta variant has been met with a mixture of reason and emotion. Consumers have correctly reasoned that the economy’s performance will be diminished over the next several months, but the extraordinary surge in negative economic assessments also reflects an emotional response, mainly from dashed hopes that the pandemic would soon end.”

However, another just as likely reason for the sudden adverse shift in sentiment is the continued explosion in prices, which manifested itself in the continued rise in inflation expectations: while short-term inflation expectations eased very modestly (to “only” 4.6% from 4.7%) longer-term expectations rebounded back to multiyear highs, with consumers now seeing inflation averaging 3.0% over the next five years, up from 2.8% in the past two months.

Commenting on this ominous shift in inflation expectations Curtin said that “although the small August decline is consistent with the transient hypothesis, the recent data on long term inflation expectations were not: inflation was expected to average 3.0% over the next five years, up from 2.8% in the past two months, regaining the same level as in May.”

Underscoring the ongoing inflation shock, UMich also noted that reactions to market prices on purchases for homes, vehicles, and household durables were the most negative ever recorded in the long history of the surveys, with a record number of respondents remarking on the bad buying conditions for virtually every product category.

As UMich added, “aversion to higher prices caused consumers to judge buying conditions negatively: favorable ratings fell to just 30% for homes, 31% for vehicles, and 43% for household durables—all were the lowest since the 1980 recessions. This distaste was greatest among households with incomes in the top third, who represent over half of all consumer purchases. Importantly, price hikes by sellers need to be confirmed by buyers before those hikes enter into the various inflation gauges.”

It gets worse: the survey noted that inflation’s impact on family budgets continued to grow in August, cited by 18% of all households, up from 13% last month and 5% at the start of the year. The complaints about lower living standards due to inflation were voiced by 29% of those aged 65 or older, by 25% of those with a high school education or less, and by 24% of households with incomes in the bottom third.

Whatever optimism Americans had toward the economy has vaporized as consumers became far more pessimistic about further declines in the national unemployment rate, despite the record job openings with just 36% of consumers anticipating a decline in the jobless rate, down from 52% last month. This, according to Curtin, reflects an anticipated slowdown in the year ahead as just 32% of consumers thought that the economy would improve, well below last month’s 45% and the 50% in June.

And the punchline: with fewer consumers saying the year ahead prospects for the economy could be described as good (31%, down from July’s 50%) the majority (57%) now expect a renewed downturn over the longer term.

What is scary is that according to the latest Bank of America debit and credit card spending data, this is already starting to manifest itself in actual spending which is slowing and will have an adverse impact on overall economic growth (as a reminder 70% of US GDP is derived from consumer spending).

With the benefit of stimmies now long gone, and consumers having burned through much if not all of their pandemic savings, BofA found that total card spending was down 1.3% on a month-over-month seasonally adjusted basis, and when slicing the data further, retail sales ex-autos was down a more notable 2.4% mom sa.

This means that the upcoming retail sales report, where consensus expects a 0.2% ex-autos print, will be a major disappointment.

According to BofA economist Michelle Meyer, there are two critical reasons for the weakness:

  • online retail sales (card not present) declined, which BofA believes is in large part to the timing of Prime Day promotions this year. Historically Prime Day is in mid-July but this year was pulled forward to June. Since the seasonal factors are set based on a gain in July, the data will be adjusted lower on a SA basis for online spending.

  • Services spending still increased over the month but at a moderating pace providing an insufficient offset to the weakening in goods spending.

Digging deeper into the latter, BofA’s proxy for services spending, which includes airfare, lodging, entertainment, restaurants and bars, continued to slide in the most recent week to a 2-year growth rate of 5.7%. This is down from the recent high in late-June of 14.6%. The biggest deceleration continues to be in spending on airfare which reflects concerns over the Delta variant. At the same time, durable goods spending (electronics +furniture +home improvement) weakened, with 2-year growth of 24%. What’s left? A combination of other services which tend to be less cyclical and nondurable goods spending which continues to run at a trend pace.

A similar slowdown in covid-linked categories was observed also by JPMorgan whose own Chase card spending data showed that “retail spending outcomes have fallen short of our model in recent months. Our US card data reinforces this note of caution, showing a loss of momentum for airline spending and leveling off for restaurant spending this quarter.”

While one can debate the reasons behind it, it’s now abundantly clear that spending across many categories has slowed down sharply not just for services but also across goods:

The bottom line, no matter how one slices the data, is that whether it’s Delta or surging inflation, consumer optimism is collapsing and is starting to depress spending. Incidentally, we didn’t need UMich to tell us this: as we noted earlier this week, small-business confidence plunged in August to its lowest level since early spring, as the rise in Covid-19 cases due to the highly transmissible Delta variant put a damper on expectations and turned entrepreneurs more cautious, while surging prices fanned fears about plunging margins.

An anecdote from the WSJ captures well the reversal in sentiment: at Wizard Studios, an event production company with 25 employees, bookings jumped in May after the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention lifted mask mandates. The Brooklyn, N.Y., company added nine employees this year after laying off half of its 32-person workforce in March 2020. On Friday, one client indefinitely postponed plans for a launch party for a television event and another put off plans for a multiday corporate meeting at a Hamptons beach resort, bringing total cancellations and postponements to five this week.

The recent flurry of cancellations “is creating a lot of anxiety,” said Wizard President Matthew Saravay, who now expects revenue to be 25% lower than forecast. “It’s just slowing down more than I anticipated. Who knows where the bottom is.”

“We were slowly ramping up in anticipation of a robust third and fourth quarter,” he said. “You can drop the ‘ro’ part. It seems like it is just a bust.”

Avanti International which has roughly 20 employees, said demand for the company’s injection grouts remained strong last year, in part because most capital projects were already in process when Covid-19 hit and infrastructure maintenance continued. The Houston-based company manufactures and supplies grouts used to stabilize soil and keep groundwater from infiltrating subway lines, sewer systems and other infrastructure.

“With the Delta variant and potential concern for rising caseloads, a lot of municipalities and government agencies are delaying projects,” said Avanti President Britt Babcock.

UBS economist Paul Donovan may have summarized the coming slowdown best, writing that “there has been a US consumer goods demand surge, as consumers have spent the savings they acquired against their will. Once those savings have gone, US consumers’ demand will be based off incomes, plus whatever credit they can get. But the real spending power of US income is now falling, as headline inflation exceeds income growth. This limits the power of future demand to push up prices indefinitely.”

While some will certainly find solace in this latest downturn in sentiment, especially market bulls who are observing today’s tumble in bond yields and the dollar – as an economic contraction will certainly push back the Fed’s tapering (and tightening) timeline – there is a more insidious dynamic to consider: with US consumers having suffered through the covid lockdowns, at least they had generous stimulus payments to look forward to. Not this time, and especially not in just a few weeks, when all the emergency unemployment insurance claims from the pandemic are set to expire next month. This means that either the Delta variant (which will likely be supplanted by the “even deadlier” Lambda variant shortly) has to get far worse to trigger even more stimmies but not before leading to another round of mass business shutdowns and economic lockdowns, or the pandemic will have to fade away and soon, or else sentiment will continue to deteriorate, leading to even more pessimistic sentiment, and even more spending slowdowns.

This is the dilemma facing the Biden administration, and how the president responds could mean all the difference in the world in next November’s midterm elections.

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

 
USA////INFLATION WATCH//
 
LOS ANGELES//CHINA
DEADLY!!
 
 
 

Supply-Chains Brace For Collapse: Port Of LA Fears Repeat Of “Shipping Nightmare” As China Locks Down

 
FRIDAY, AUG 13, 2021 – 02:41 PM

Yesterday we reported that with container shipping rates already blowing out to never before seen levels amid continued chaos in Transpacific shipping as a result of massive port backlogs and production delays in China due to the relentless onslaught of the now-endemic covid, a new and even greater price surge was on deck – an outcome which would nuke hopes for renormalization in soaring inflation – as a result of the partial (for now) shutdown of China’s busiest port by volume (and third-largest container port in the world after Shanghai and Singapore) when operations at the Ningbo Meishan Container Terminal, also referred to as the Meishan Terminal, were immediately suspended following positive Covid test results.

Well, it didn’t take too long for Bloomberg to report that the spread of the delta variant could “lead to a repeat of last year’s shipping nightmares”, and for confirmation look no further than the Port of Los Angeles, the nation’s busiest post, which in June saw its volumes dip because of a Covid outbreak at the Yantian port in China, and which is bracing for another potential decline because of the latest shutdown at the Ningbo-Zhoushan port in China, a spokesman said.

Anton Posner, chief executive officer of supply-chain management company Mercury Resources, said that many companies chartering ships are already adding Covid contract clauses as insurance so they won’t have to pay for stranded ships.

And here is the core problem with all those endorsing a “transitory” inflation spike captured in a perfect soundbite: just when it seemed as if things were just starting to calm down, “and we’re now into delta delays,” said Emmanouil Xidias, partner at Ifchor North America LLC. “You’re going to have a secondary hit.

And then a tertiary, then quaternary, and so on because after Delta – which has already peaked in the US but you won’t hear it in the propaganda rags – we have Lambda, and then a whole lot of other Greek letters, ensuring that the “pandemic” persists at least through the Nov 2022 midterm election which – for obvious reasons – will have to me mail-in, and thus the pandemic will have to last at least until then.

Meanwhile, prices are about to go apeshit: the shutdown at Ningbo-Zhoushan is raising fears that ports around the world will soon face the same kind of outbreaks and Covid restrictions that slowed the flows of everything from perishable food to electronics last year as the pandemic took hold. Infections are threatening to spread at docks just as the world’s shipping system is already struggling to handle unprecedented demand with economies reopening and manufacturing picking up.

The good news it ath so far, Ningbo-Zhoushan Port said in a statement late on Thursday that all other terminals aside from Meishan have been operating normally, and that the port is actively negotiating with shipping companies, directing them to other terminals, and releasing information on a real-time data platform.

To minimize delays, it’s also adjusting the operating time of other terminals to make sure clients can clear their shipments. A spokesman for the port told Bloomberg there were no further updates when contacted Friday.

Despite the port’s cheerful take, some ships that docked at the Meishan terminal before the closure have suspended cargo operations until the terminal re-opens, according to a notice sent by shipping line CMA CGM SA to shippers. Other vessels which usually call at the Meishan terminal will stop at the Beilun terminal instead, according to a statement Thursday from A.P. Moller-Maersk A/S. One of the company’s ships will skip Ningbo next week, it said.

“We are working on contingency plans in order to mitigate the likely impact on our vessel schedules and cargo operations,” Orient Overseas Container Line, a subsidiary of Orient Overseas International Ltd. container subsidiary said via email.

While Ningbo city which hosts the busiest port in the world is still considered a low risk virus area, at least according to the city’s health commission, flights to and from the capital Beijing have been canceled.

And herein lies the rub: authorities in Ningbo said the port worker was fully vaccinated with an inactivated vaccine and had the second dose on March 17. The worker was asymptomatic as of Thursday afternoon despite the “breakthrough” infection. He was infected with the delta strain, genetic sequencing showed, and epidemiological investigation shows the worker had come into close contact with sailors of foreign cargo ships. In other words, if Delta really is that contagious, all hell is about to break loose not only in Ningbo but across global shipping lanes.

Meanwhile, as Chinese shippers brace for the worst, they are busy daytrading various hyperinflationary indicators such as the Baltic Dry Index which serves as a global benchmark for bulk shipping prices, and which is up more than 10% since a month ago as the delta variant began to spread rapidly. As shown in the chart top, container prices also have soared, with the benchmark cost of shipping a container from Shanghai to Los Angeles up more than 220% over the past year to $10,322 this week. And if the Ningbo port closure escalates, those numbers are about to go exponentially higher.

Finally, commenting on the emerging shipping chaos, Rabobank’s Michael Every ties it in to the latest wholesale inflation data, writing this morning that “the US PPI print yesterday laid bare the surge in input costs still coming through the pipeline, most notably in that while the headline was up 1.0% m/m, almost double expectations, and 7.8% y/y, the core component ex- food and energy also spiked 0.9% m/m and 6.2% y/y. As we have already seen in China, somebody is going to have to swallow that. Will it be producers, compressing their margins? Or will it be consumers, depressing their real incomes? Considering around 25% of capacity at China’s third-busiest port just closed down again due to Covid-19, which will push global shipping further past its limits just as the US needs to restock for Black Friday and Xmas, the one thing that does not seem likely is a rapid drop-off in supply-side inflation.”

 
USA COVID UPDATES
 
This will be deadly: FDA authorizes COVID booster shots for immunocompromised patients.
The FDA still have not approved this vaccine (gene therapy) 
(zerohedge)

FDA Authorizes Covid Booster Shots For Immunocompromised Patients

 
FRIDAY, AUG 13, 2021 – 07:14 AM

After growing chatter over the past week, late on Thursday the U.S. Food and Drug Administration authorized booster shots for certain people with weakened immune systems, likely the launch of broader efforts to better protect against evasive variants like Delta. The agency said that other fully vaccinated individuals do not need an additional vaccine dose right now, clarifying that the clearance is specifically for solid organ transplant recipients or those who are diagnosed with conditions that are considered to have an equivalent level of immunocompromise.

“After a thorough review of the available data, the FDA determined that this small, vulnerable group may benefit from a third dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna Vaccines,” Acting FDA Commissioner Janet Woodcock said in a statement. She said other people who are fully vaccinated are adequately protected and don’t need an additional dose at this time. The agency is reviewing whether an additional dose may be needed in the future, she said.

The decision expanding the authorization of the mRNA shots follows “scientific evidence” that vaccines are less effective at protecting people with weakened immune systems from Covid-19 than the general population. Immunocompromised people who didn’t have an antibody response after two doses of the mRNA vaccines had responses after a third dose, studies indicated, supporting the decision to recommend a third dose. About 2.7% of American adults are immunocompromised, which also includes people who live with HIV or take cancer treatments and other drugs that suppress their immune systems.

We expect the “scientific evidence” to expand to include everyone just as soon as Pfizer sees a dip in its revenue projections.

“This action is about ensuring our most vulnerable, who may need an additional dose to enhance their biological responses to the vaccines, are better protected against Covid-19,” Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Director Rochelle Walensky said.

“An additional dose could help increase protection for these individuals, which is especially important as the Delta variant spreads,” she added.

The expanded authorization is expected to be the first step in a broader campaign to get ahead of the evolving coronavirus, which has mutated into more contagious strains. A few other countries, such as Israel and Germany, plan to or have already administered the third shot to avoid another crisis due to the contagious Delta variant of the coronavirus.

Scientists are still divided over the broad use of COVID-19 vaccine boosters among those without underlying problems as benefits of the boosters remain undetermined.

Authorized vaccines appear to work well against the new strains that have emerged so far, especially protecting people against severe Covid-19, according to studies. Yet the shots don’t appear to be quite as effective as they were against the original virus, many studies indicate. Some other, preliminary research suggests that the protection conferred by vaccination wanes over time.

As noted yesterday, Pfizer has said the efficacy of the vaccine it developed with BioNTech drops over time, citing a study that showed 84% effectiveness from a peak of 96% four months after a second dose. Moderna has also said it sees the eventual need for booster doses, especially since the Delta variant has caused “breakthrough” infections in fully vaccinated people.

The U.S. health regulator on Thursday amended the emergency use authorizations for the vaccines to allow an additional dose in certain individuals, specifically for recipients of solid organ transplant or those diagnosed with conditions that are considered to have an equivalent level of immunocompromise.

Reports of infections among vaccinated people and concerns about diminishing protection have galvanized wealthy nations to distribute booster shots, even as many countries struggle to access first vaccine doses.

The World Health Organization last week called for a moratorium on COVID-19 vaccine booster shots until at least the end of September.

Spurred by the Delta variant, coronavirus cases in the United States have spiked to their highest levels in more than six months, according to a Reuters tally. With U.S. health officials have saying that those with weak immune systems may not be sufficiently protected by their existing COVID-19 vaccinations, 

U.S. regulators must fully authorize the COVID-19 vaccines or amend their emergency use approvals before officials can recommend additional shots. A panel of advisers to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention will meet on Friday to discuss eligibility of immunocompromised individuals for booster doses.

To maintain high levels of protection, some public-health experts and vaccine makers have recommended giving boosters to the general public. The Biden administration is expected to decide on a broader booster strategy by September. And since the midterms are in over a year, and mail-in “voting” has to be the only option by then for obvious reason, we expect that this round of booster shots will be extended by another, and then another, until all the votes are “counted.”

end

James McShirley on COVID restrictions in the USA.

He is bang on!!

  • This is a biggie. With vaccine mandates being implemented in more and more places there are still 40% or more of the population who are refusing to get it. Some even say it’s up to 60% who are refusing, and the government is lying about the percentage. With every other government data being a lie it would this be any different? Those millions of unvaccinated people are being shut out of restaurants, entertainment, indoor venues, travel, and many other modes of economic activity. They are in effect becoming non-participants by force. This is a SERIOUS hit to the economy, as most are choosing to shun any entity imposing draconian law rather than to submit to the jab. Look for the GDP to crash as the vax/non-vax economy plays out. I haven’t seen a single word written on the possibility of spending by up to half of the U.S. population plummeting due to vaccine mandates.

end

AMY CONEY BARRETT does not understand the science: she refuses to block Indiana University’vaccine mandate.

Many will die

(Van Brugen/EpochTimes)

Amy Coney Barrett Refuses To Block Indiana University’s Vaccine Mandate

 
FRIDAY, AUG 13, 2021 – 08:50 AM

Authored by Isabel van Brugen via The Epoch Times,

Supreme Court Justice Amy Coney Barrett on Thursday declined to block Indiana University’s (IU) COVID-19 vaccine requirement which takes full effect this fall, offering no explanation for her decision. (she is compromised)

Barrett, an appointee of former President Donald Trump, made the decision alone in response to an emergency request from eight IU students who sued the school in June. The students argued that the inoculation requirement would violate their constitutional rights by forcing them to receive unwanted medical treatment.

The eight students filed a motion for emergency relief following a lower court’s decision last week that sided with the university’s decision to require all students returning to campus on Aug. 23 to get vaccinated or else have a religious exemption or a medical condition.

The university on May 21 informed all students that failure to be vaccinated against COVID-19 by the fall semester will result in students’ class registrations being canceled and their university-issued IDs terminated, and they will be prohibited from any on-campus activity.

Those who are exempted from the vaccine are required to get tested for COVID-19 twice a week and wear masks, IU said.

The students in court filings argued that they have “a constitutional right to bodily integrity, autonomy, and of medical treatment choice in the context of a vaccination mandate.”

Indiana University did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Johnson & Johnson’s COVID-19 vaccine at the OSU Wexner Medical Center in Columbus, Ohio, U.S. March 2, 2021. (Reuters/Gaelen Morse/File Photo)

More than 80 percent of IU students have reported receiving at least one dose of the CCP (Chinese Communist Party) virus vaccine, IU spokesman Chuck Carney told The Associated Press last week.

The decision comes as a growing number of schools and employers are mandating vaccinations, responding to a surge in cases of the more contagious Delta variant of the CCP virus.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said in an Aug. 6 update that new data on the Delta variant shows that no vaccine is 100 percent effective as fully vaccinated people are still capable of spreading the virus to others, although vaccinated people “appear to be infectious for a shorter period.”

The agency added that breakthrough infections of the Delta variant “seems to produce the same high amount of virus in both unvaccinated and fully vaccinated people,” bringing into question whether vaccine mandates are justifiable given the implications for government infringement on individual liberties.

The CDC didn’t respond to a request for comment on the matter.

James Bopp, a lawyer for the students, told several news outlets that they are “disappointed that Justice Barrett refused to intervene.”

He added that the students will continue to challenge the vaccine requirement at lower courts.

“IU students are adults entitled to make medical treatment decisions for themselves, unless IU can prove in court that their COVID vaccine mandate is justified, which they have not done and that the courts have not required them to do,” the attorney said.

end

The USA now have 4 cases of a deadly tropical disease, Melioidosis, from which two have died

(zerohedge)

New Rare Tropical Disease Kills Two In The U.S.

 
FRIDAY, AUG 13, 2021 – 05:45 AM

A bacterial infection called Melioidosis, usually found in tropical settings, has killed two in the U.S., according to the Centers for Disease Control. 

Yes, while the rest of the world has been focused on the Delta variant hysteria, new incidents of the rare tropical disease have snuck in through the back door, according to The Hill.

Melioidosis, sometimes called Whitmore’s disease, is usually found in Southeast Asia and Northern Australia. Bacteria can be found in “in contaminated waters and soils and spread within both animals and humans through contact with the contaminated source”, the report says. It is most commonly spread through skin abrasions and ingestion.

The CDC has confirmed four cases in the U.S., with two of them being fatal. One case was in Kansas, another was in Georgia, a third was Texas. As a result, 100 soil and water samples were taken to test for the virus and none came back positive. No further information about the cases was released. 

Public health officials have been left to attribute the virus to “an imported product or an ingredient found within an import, such as a food, beverage, cleaning product or medicine,” The Hill wrote. 

A CDC statement on Melioidosis cases said: “CDC is asking clinicians to watch for any acute bacterial infection that doesn’t respond to normal antibiotics and consider melioidosis – regardless of whether the patient traveled outside the United States. CDC also urges clinicians not to rule out melioidosis as a possible diagnosis in children and those who were previously healthy and without known risk factors for melioidosis.”

“Although healthy people may get melioidosis, underlying medical conditions may increase the risk of disease,” it continued. “The major risk factors are diabetes, liver or kidney disease, chronic lung disease, cancer or another condition that weakens the immune system. Most children who get melioidosis do not have risk factors. People experiencing cough, chest pain, high fever, headache or unexplained weight loss should see their doctor.”

end

Insane…..going against Supreme Court ruling???

(zerohedge)

In Blow To Landlords, D.C. Judge Rules Biden’s Eviction Moratorium Can Remain In Place

 
FRIDAY, AUG 13, 2021 – 11:54 AM

A federal judge in Washington, D.C., on Friday rejected a request from a group of landlords to block the Biden administration’s renewed eviction moratorium, appearing to overrule The Supreme Court’s ruling that the moratorium is unconstitutional.

As The Hill reports, the ruling by U.S. District Judge Dabney Friedrich, a Trump appointee, leaves intact the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) new freeze on evictions, which is set to run until early October.

Judge Friedrich said that she does not have the authority to halt the eviction ban, and any stop to the moratorium must come from a higher court.

In other words, she punted it up the chain of command…though she made clear she thinks it’s illegal.

iv) Swamp commentaries/

Robert to me:

MUST SEE: Damning Video Explaining How, Why And Who Stole Election – Rumble

 

 

King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories./ of the day

Crypto Rips, Dollar Dips, & Stocks Hit Record Highs As Americans’ Confidence Collapses

Tyler Durden's Photo
BY TYLER DURDEN
FRIDAY, AUG 13, 2021 – 04:00 PM

If the stock market is a “forward-looking” mechanism, then the future it sees is very, very different from the ‘expectations’ that the average American has about what’s looming…

Source: Bloomberg

The last 6 times out of 7 (in the last 40 years) that sentiment crashed this hard, the US was in or entering a recession…but with stonks at record highs, how can that be?

Source: Bloomberg

Put another way…

On the week, The Dow outperformed (which has been relatively unusual) with Nasdaq breaking even and Small Caps tumbling. Notice that every day the cash open (this is 24hr futures data) was utter chaos before everything calmed down in general

Euro Stoxx 600 is once again outpacing the S&P this year (with its 10th consecutive record high in a row – the longest such streak since 1999)… and they are both crushing Chinese stocks…

Source: Bloomberg

The Russell 2000 failed to break and hold the 100DMA six times in the last two weeks and today saw it leg down to the lower end of its recent range…

Defensives outperformed Cyclicals on the week with the last two days dominating that shift (but both were higher on the week)…

Source: Bloomberg

Value outperformed Growth this week (though the last two days have seen Growth relatively bid)…

Source: Bloomberg

Materials and Staples outperformed on the week while Energy and Tech were the laggards…

Source: Bloomberg

Notably, this week saw the energy sector cap a 19-day streak in which no member of the index traded above its 50-day moving average, the second-longest span since the late-1950s, data compiled by SentimenTrader show. That’s something that hasn’t happened since the summer of 2001 when Enron and its ensuing bankruptcy was pressuring the energy complex.

Today’s bid for Treasuries erased any weakness on the week, pushing yields back to unchanged…

Source: Bloomberg

10Y Yields met resistance at around 1.36% which coincides with a critical post June FOMC plunge spike low in yields…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar plunged today starting around the European open, and accelerated on the confidence collapse. That drop took the reserve currency negative for the week, and erased most of last Friday’s payrolls print gains…

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos rallied this week, led by Ripple with Ether and Bitcoin up around 8-10%…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin rebounded strongly today after weakness yesterday, closing back above $46,000 (highest close since May)…

Source: Bloomberg

And Ethereum followed a similar trajectory, closing back above $3200, also the highest since May…

Source: Bloomberg

As the dollar dipped, gold ripped higher, erasing all of Sunday night’s flash crash and some of the payrolls plunge…

Given where real yields are (modestly lower, more negative this week), gold has more room to run here…

Source: Bloomberg

Oil was volatile on the week but circled back to around unchanged…

Finally, in case you wondered what was driving stocks, given that you must have been living under a rock – as confidence among the actual consumers is collapsing to 10 year lows…

Source: Bloomberg

…it’s simple… $30 trillion of global central bank liquidity (which has risen $10 trillion alone since the March 2020 lows)…

Source: Bloomberg

Is this as good as it gets?

Source: Bloomberg

Because, a lot of traders are betting on The Fed screwing things up bigly in the next few months

Source: Bloomberg

And will never raise rates (in fact they might cut them!)..

Source: Bloomberg

Don’t fight The Fed… until The Fed blows it all up.

Deadly Lambda variant could be vaccine-resistant: new study says https://trib.al/t70n5lD
 
@JackPosobiec: Lambda variant is spreading throughout South America.  Biden has left our southern border open.  Japanese study says Lambda may be vaccine resistant. Pay attention to where this is going
 
Making children wear masks in the classroom is ‘child abuse’: Report in Ireland says it can worsen existing health issues, stunt language skills and cause psychological harm  https://t.co/pSXz44C2HV
    The HIQA paper noted that transmission of Covid was low in schools and that young children found it difficult to wear face coverings properly.  The scientists also gave evidence that masks had adverse psychological impacts, including causing anxiety and inhibiting the development of communication skills.
 
@tlowdon: CDC DIRECTOR: All pregnant birthing people should be vaxxed.  PFIZER (on 7/28): Um…OK… Yeah, we’re not quite done yet with clinical safety testing in expectant mothers.
https://twitter.com/tlowdon/status/1425623937178750979
 
Forty percent of migrants released in Texas border city test positive for COVID-19, officials say
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/texas-city-officials-40-of-migrants-test-positive-for-covid-19
 
States That Mandate Vaccine Passports Must Also Require Voter ID Under Proposed Bill
Introduced by Kevin Cramer of North Dakota in the Senate and Nancy Mace of South Carolina in the House, “requiring states and local jurisdictions that institute vaccine passports to require voter identification in federal elections.”… “If they’re comfortable making people show their private medical records to simply go to a restaurant, they should be fine having people prove they are who they say they are before they vote,” he continued. “Our legislation shines a light on their hypocrisy.
https://dailycaller.com/2021/08/12/vaccine-passports-voter-id-kevin-cramer-covid/
 
The Texas Tribune reporting on hospitalized Covid-stricken child: “We reported 5,800 in one week. It was actually 783 in 6 weeks.”  (Preconceived narratives trump facts and/or checking out facts.)
https://twitter.com/steventdennis/status/1425919692372332547
 
The Fed balance sheet: +$22.086B; US Treasuries +$25.86B  https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/current/
 
@TaviCosta: At these valuations and levels of inflation: Real free cash flow yield for tech companies is now at its most negative since the bubble (1999).
https://twitter.com/TaviCosta/status/1425927966798794753/photo

@JackPosobiec: The Pentagon spent $88 billion dollars training the Afghan Army for 20 years.  It collapsed in 1 month. (A stunned Team Obama has transported 3,000 Marines to evacuate Kabul.)
 
@johnrobb: Afghanistan: 20 years of nation-building; 2,312 US soldiers killed, 20k + wounded.  $2.4 trillion spent  — $114,285 for every person in the country, at the time we arrived.  Collapses immediately upon the start of withdrawal
 
Who is going to take the hit for the Taliban blitzkrieg of Afghanistan?  US generals or Team Obama’s ill-conceived plan to withdraw US troops on a widely broadcast deadline?
 
So much for transparency! Biden’s visitor logs to his Delaware home won’t be released, White House says (There is only one reason to hide visitor logs.)  https://t.co/bXOxWwKWOM
 
The Big Guy took another shot at Florida Governor DeSantis on Thursday over masks.  Joe has elevated DeSantis nationally.  The Florida governor must be elated with the free publicity and status boost.
 
@stclairashley: Chris Cuomo tweeted this 5 days before partying maskless at a packed club in the Hamptons:  https://twitter.com/stclairashley/status/1425885889138409476/photo/1
 
Why did Ted Lieu’s campaign donate $50,000 to Stanford before his son applied to Stanford?
(If Lieu were a GOP Rep instead of a Dem, the MSM wouldn’t ignore this.)
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/why-did-ted-lieus-campaign-donate-50-000-to-stanford-before-his-son-applied-to-stanford
 
Chicago Mayor Lightfoot allowed ~365,000 people to attend Lollapalooza (she attended maskless); but she claimed Covid protocols prevented bagpipers from performing their traditional tribute for a murdered Chicago Police officer.
 
Medical examiner’s office contradicts Lori Lightfoot’s claim that COVID protocols prevented full tribute for fallen officer Ella French – It has also been noted that Lightfoot herself recently attended the massive music festival Lollapalooza, indicating that she doesn’t feel such “COVID-19 protocols” are necessary for her herself to follow.
https://thepostmillennial.com/busted-lori-lightfoot-falsely-claimed-covid-restrictions-prevented-tribute-for-fallen-officer
 
‘Screw your freedom’: Schwarzenegger tells ‘schmuck’ anti-maskers to ‘get vaccinated, get masks and do social distancing’ (Critics slammed Arnie for acting like a Nazi ala his dad.)
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9886635/Screw-freedom-Arnold-Schwarzenegger-tells-anti-maskers-theyre-schmucks.html
 
Newsweek: Arnold Schwarzennegger’s father, Gustav, was indeed a Nazi… The two month-long investigation uncovered that Gustav had applied for membership in the Nazi Party in 1938, just before Germany annexed Austria, and was accepted three years later in 1941…
https://www.newsweek.com/fact-check-was-arnold-schwarzeneggers-dad-nazi-sergeant-1618664
 
GOP Sen. @TomCottonAR: Preaching that “capitalism is fundamentally racist” is not about making a more perfect union.  It’s ab

END

 

Well that is all for today
I will see you Monday night
H

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