SEPTEMBER 14//GOLD UP $12.90 TO $1805.50//SILVER UP 13 CENTS TO $23.88//GOLD STANDING INCREASES TO 4.566 TONNES//SILVER STANDING INCREASES TO 27.69 MILLION OZ//COVID UPDATES/VACCINE UPDATES: BRITAIN STILL NOT FINISHED WITH THE BAN ON VACCINE PASSPORTS, ONE DAY AFTER ANNOUNCING THAT THEY WILL NEVER ENFORCE THEM//COVID DEATHS IN ISRAEL DOUBLED SINCE THE INTRODUCTION OF THE VACCINE//EVERGRANDE HAS JUST FACED ITS LEHMAN MOMENT AS THEY AE SEEKING BANKRUPTCY PROTECTION//CPI OUT TODAY AND IT WAS BELOW EXPECTATIONS: HOWEVER THAT PROPELLED GOLD/SILVER HIGHER AND THE STOCK MARKET LOWER//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

 

GOLD:$1805.50 UP $12.90   The quote is London spot price

Silver:$23.88 UP 13  CENTS  London spot price ( cash market)

 
 
 
 

Closing access prices:  London spot

i)Gold : $1805.00 LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

ii)SILVER:  $23.88

//LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

Random Thoughts

Robert H for us to ponder!
 
 

> If you ever feel that life is pointless or that your life is going around  in circles, just remember it took twenty years and four presidents and trillions of dollars to replace the Taliban with the Taliban. And this is called leadership!

 
end

PLATINUM AND PALLADIUM PRICES BY GOLD-EAGLE (MORE ACCURATE)

 

 

PLATINUM  $945.60 DOWN  $19.65

PALLADIUM: $1981.45  down $1085.00   PER OZ.

 

END

Editorial of The New York Sun | February 1, 2021

end

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COMEX DETAILS//NOTICES FILED

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

receiving today 0/0

issued:  0

Goldman Sachs stopped: 0

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  SEPT. CONTRACT: 0 NOTICE(S) FOR 0 OZ  (0.0000 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR THIS MONTH:  1053 FOR 105,300 OZ  (3.2752 TONNES)

 

SILVER//sept CONTRACT

28 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR  140,000   OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month 5245  :  for 26,225,000  oz

 

BITCOIN MORNING QUOTE  $46,017 UP 1157  DOLLARS 

 

BITCOIN AFTERNOON QUOTE.:$46,478  UP 1618  DOLLARS 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

GLD AND SLV INVENTORIES:

GLD AND SLV INVENTORIES:

Gold

WITH GOLD  UP $12.90 AND NO PHYSICAL TO BE FOUND ANYWHERE:

A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.04 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// 

 

WITH RESPECT TO GLD WITHDRAWALS:  (OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS)

 

GOLD IS “RETURNED” TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHEN CALLING IN THEIR LEASES: THE GOLD NEVER LEAVES THE BANK OF ENGLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BANK IS PROTECTING ITSELF IN CASE OF COMMERCIAL FAILURE

ALSO INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (phys) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//

THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD!!

GLD  1.000.21 TONNES OF GOLD//

Silver

AND WITH NO SILVER AROUND  TODAY: WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS

HUGE CHANGE  IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.11 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV

 

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV

WITH REGARD TO SILVER WITHDRAWALS FROM THE SLV:

THE SILVER WITHRAWALS ARE ACTUALLY “RETURNED” TO JPM, AS JPMORGAN CALLS IN ITS LEASES WITH THE SLV FUND.  (THE STORY IS THE SAME AS THE BANK OF ENGLAND’S GOLD). THE SILVER NEVER LEAVES JPMORGAN’S VAULT. THEY ARE CALLING IN THEIR LEASES FOR FEAR OF SOLVENCY ISSUES.

INVENTORY RESTS AT: 

 

544.624  MILLION OZ./SLV

xxxxx

GLD closing price//NYSE 168,85 UP  1.11 OR 0.66%

XXXXXXXXXXXXX

SLV closing price NYSE 22.11 UP $.12 OR 0.55%

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

 
 

 

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Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A GOOD SIZED 667 CONTRACTS TO 139,390, AND FURTHER FROM THE NEW RECORD OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020. THE LOSS IN OI OCCURRED WITH OUR  $0.12 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX  ON MONDAY.

OUR BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN ,(IT LOSS BY $0.12)

BUT THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OUT ANY SILVER LONGS AS WE HAD A SMALL GAIN OF 108 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.WE  ALSO HAD I) HUGE  BANKER SHORT COVERING AS THEY ARE VERY ANXIOUS TO GET OUT OF DODGE!!/WE ALSO HAD  SOME ii) REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//.    iii)  A GOOD ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) A  SMALL INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 27.64 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY A 155,000 OZ  QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING 27.695 MILLION OZ  / v) GOOD SIZED COMEX OI LOSS,
 
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL:
 
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI SILVER TODAY: CONTRACTS – 125
 

 

 
 
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS
 
 
SEPTEMBER
 
ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF SEPT:
 
4762 CONTACTS  for 9 days, total 4762 contracts or 23.810 million oz…average per day:  529 contracts or 2.65 million oz per day.

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER: SO FAR THIS MONTH OF

SEPT:  23.810 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON

 

LAST 4 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: 140.120 MILLION OZ 

 

 
RESULT: , …WE HAD A GOOD SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 667 WITH  OUR12 CENT LOSS SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ///MONDAYTHE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A GOOD SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 755 CONTRACTS( 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR SEPT AND 755 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR DECEMBER) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS.
 
TODAY WE HAD A SMALL SIZED GAIN OF 108 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGE/THE DOMINANT FEATURE TODAY:/HUGE BANKER SHORTCOVERING AS THEY GET OUT OF DODGE/  WITH OUR $0.12 LOSSAND WE HAVE A  SMALL INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR SEPTEMBER 27.640 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED TODAY BY A  QUEUE JUMP.  OF 155,000 OZ TODAY//NEW STANDING 27.695 MILLION OZ//
 

WE HAD 28 NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR 140,000 OZ

GOLD

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 636  CONTRACTS TO 503,831 _ ,,AND FURTHER FROM  OUR NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110. 

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY:  – 72  CONTRACTS.

THE SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI CAME WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $1.20///COMEX GOLD TRADING/MONDAY.AS IN SILVER WE MUST HAVE HAD HUGE BANKER/ALGO SHORT COVERING ACCOMPANYING OUR FAIR SIZED EXCHANGE FOR  PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AS THE TOTAL GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES TOTALLED 3190 CONTRACTS. WE ALSO HAD A GOOD INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR SEPT AT 3.586 TONNES, FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 26,600 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING 4.566 TONNES// 
 
 
 

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $1.20 WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S TRADING

 

WE HAD A VOLUME OF 0    4 -GC CONTRACTS//OPEN INTEREST  0//

WE HAD A FAIR SIZED GAIN OF 3118  OI CONTRACTS (9.69 TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

 

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 2482 CONTRACTS:

CONTRACT  AND JULY:  0; AUGUST: 0 & DEC 2482  ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO//TOTAL: 2482 The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 503,831. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EXCHANGE DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A  FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 3118  CONTRACTS: 636 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEXAND 2482 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 3118 CONTRACTS OR 9.69 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A SMALL SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (2482) ACCOMPANYING THE SMALL SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (636 OI): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES: 3118 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING ,2.) GOOD INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR SEPT. AT 3.586 TONNES//FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 22,600 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING 4.566 TONNES / 3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION, /// ;4)SMALL SIZED COMEX OI GAIN 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL

 

SPREADING OPERATIONS(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD)

 

FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS:

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF OCT. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD

 

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:
HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT, FOR GOLD:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

 
 
 
 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2021 INCLUDING TODAY

SEPTEMBER

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF SEPT : 15,168, CONTRACTS OR 1,516,800 oz OR 47.18 TONNES (9 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 1685 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 9 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 47.18 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2020, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  47.18/3550 x 100% TONNES  1.47% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO DATE
 
JANUARY: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)
 
FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..
 
MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN///IT SURPASSED JANUARY!!)

 

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          47.18 TONNES INITIAL ISSUANCE (EXTREMELY LOW ISSUANCE)_

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, FELL BY A GOOD 667 CONTRACTS TO 139,390 AND FURTHER FROM  TO OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  4 1/2 YEARS AGO.  

EFP ISSUANCE 775 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

JULY 0  AND SEPT: 0; DEC 755  ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  755 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI LOSS OF 667 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 755 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,WE OBTAIN A SMALL SIZED GAIN OF 108 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

 

THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 1.125 MILLION  OZ, OCCURRED DESPITE OUR $0.12 LOSS IN PRICE. 

 

 

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL..THE EVIDENCE IS CLEAR: HUGE AMOUNTS OF PHYSICAL STANDING FOR BOTH  SILVER AND GOLD .

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Gold

(Peter Schiff, Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,

 
 
 

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)TUESDAY MORNING/MONDAY  NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 52.77  PTS  OR 1.42%   //Hang Sang CLOSED down 311.58 PTS OR 1.21%      /The Nikkei closed UP 222.73 PTS OR 0.73%   //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.18%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP TO 6.4470  /Oil UP TO 70.69 dollars per barrel for WTI and 73.89 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED   /ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED  UP AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.4470. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.4406/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%/

 
 
 
3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

NORTH KOREA//USA/OUTLINE

END

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3 C CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

OUTLINE
 

COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 636 CONTRACTS TO 503,831 MOVING CLOSER TO FROM TO  THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020).  AND THIS SMALL COMEX INCREASE OCCURRED WITH OUR GAIN OF $1.20 IN GOLD PRICING MONDAY’S COMEX TRADING.WE ALSO HAD A FAIR EFP ISSUANCE (2452 CONTRACTS). …AS THEY WERE PAID HANDSOMELY  NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AND SETTLE FOR CASH. LOOKS LIKE OUR BANKERS ARE FINALLY BAILING OUT!!

 

WE NORMALLY HAVE WITNESSED  EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS. IT SEEMS THAT ARE BANKERS FRIENDS ARE EXERCISING EFP’S FROM LONDON AND NOW THEY ARE LOATHE TO ISSUE NEW ONES.  

 

(SEE BELOW)

WE  HAD 0    4 -GC VOLUME//open interest REMAINS AT   0

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW MOVING TO THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 2482 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  ;: ,  JULY 0 & AUGUST:  & DEC.  2482 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2482  CONTRACTS 

 

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION,  EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A FAIR SIZED 3118 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 2482 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A SMALL SIZED COMEX OI OF 708 CONTRACTS.WE HAVE A GOOD AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR SEPT   (4.566),

 HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 8 MONTHS OF 20201:

SEPT: 4.566 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB. 113.424 TONNES

JAN: 6.500 TONNES.

 

TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR (JAN- AUGUST): 411.289 TONNNES

 

THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT ROSE $1.20).,AND THEY WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING ANY LONGS AS THE TOTAL GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES REGISTERED 9.69 TONNES.ACCOMPANYING OUR GOOD GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR SEPT. (4.566 TONNES)..I  STRONGLY BELIEVE THAT OUR BANKER FRIENDS ARE GETTING QUITE NERVOUS.  THE HUGE SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI IS DUE TO BANKER SHORT COVERING IN A BIG WAY.  THEY ARE LOOKING OVER THEIR SHOULDERS AND WITNESSING MASSIVE SILVER/GOLD SHORTAGES THAT CANNOT BE COVERED. THEY ARE TRYING TO FLEE IN HASTE “FROM DODGE”.

WE HAD – 72 CONTRACTS FROM COMEX TRADES. THESE WERE REMOVED AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT. 

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES :: 3118 CONTRACTS OR 311800 OZ OR 9.69 TONNES

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT COMMODITY FUTURES OPEN INTEREST SHOULD APPROXIMATE 3% OF TOTAL PRODUCTION.  IN GOLD THE WORLD PRODUCES AROUND 3500 TONNES PER YEAR BUT ONLY 2200 TONNES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE WEST (THUS EXCLUDING RUSSIA, CHINA ETC..WHO KEEP 100% OF THEIR PRODUCT.
 
THUS IN GOLD WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:  503,831 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS X 100 OZ PER CONTRACT = 50.38 MILLION OZ/32,150 OZ PER TONNE =  15.67 TONNES

 

THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST REPRESENTS 1567/2200 OR 71.24% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF GOLD.

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX GOLD TODAY  196,636 contracts//    / volume//awful////

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY: 125,785 contracts//dreadful

 

// //most of our traders have left for London

 

SEPT 14

/2021

 
INITIAL STANDINGS FOR SEPT COMEX GOLD
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
 
64.30 OZ
 
brinks
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz
nil
OZ
 
 
 
 
 
 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz
 
 
 
 
nil
 
oz
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
No of oz served (contracts) today
0  notice(s)
000 OZ
 
0.00622 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)
415 contracts
41500 oz
 
1.2909 TONNES
 
 
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
1053 notices
105,300 OZ
3.2752 TONNES
 
 
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz
 
 
 
We had 0 deposit into the dealer
 
 
 
 
total deposit: nil   oz 
 

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had  0 deposit into the customer account
 
 
TOTAL CUSTOMER DEPOSITS nil  oz  
 
 
 
 
 
 
We had 1  customer withdrawals.
i) Out of Brinks: 64.30 oz (2 kilobars)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
total customer withdrawals 64.30    oz
     
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

We had 1  kilobar transactions 1 out of  1 transactions)

ADJUSTMENTS 0// 

 

 

 
 
 
the front month of September has an open interest of 415 for a GAIN of 266 contracts. We had 0 notices served on Monday.  Thus we gained 266 contracts or an additional 26,600 oz will stand for delivery in this non active delivery month of September for gold as they negated a fiat bonus for not accepting an EFP.
 
 
 
 
OCTOBER LOST 170 CONTRACTS UP TO 37,033
NOVEMBER GAINED 7 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 40
.
DEC LOST 2076  TO STAND AT 408,549
 

We had 0 notice(s) filed today for 0  oz

FOR THE SEPT 2021 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 0  contract(s) of which 0  notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0  notices received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the SEPT /2021. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (1053) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  (SEPT: 415 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today  0 x 100 oz per contract equals 146,800 OZ OR 4.566 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this active month of SEPTEMBER.  

 

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the SEPT contract month:

No of notices filed so far (1053) x 100 oz+( 414)  OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (0} x 100 oz} which equals 146,800 oz standing OR 4.566 TONNES in this  active delivery month of SEPTEMBER.

We GAINED 266 contracts or an additional 26,600 oz will not stand for delivery over on this side of the pond.

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING:  4.566 TONNES

 
 

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

427,737.391, oz NOW PLEDGED  march 5/2021/HSBC  13.30 TONNES

284,899.652 PLEDGED  MANFRA 8.8615 TONNES

298,468.054, oz  JPM  9.28 TONNES

1,195,064.751 oz pledged June 12/2020 Brinks/37.17 TONNES

133,981/351, oz Pledged August 21/regular account 4.164 tonnes JPMORGAN

66,500.429 oz International Delaware:  2.06 tonnes

169,535.980 oz Malca  5.28 TONNES

18,615.429 Loomis:  0.5790 tonnes

total pledged gold:  2,425,267.058oz                                     75.43 tonnes

 

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES…. WE HAVE 494.54 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS 4.566 tonnes

CALCULATION OF REGISTERED THAT CAN BE SETTLED UPON:

 

total registered or dealer  18,324,956.122 oz or 569.98 tonnes
 
 
 
total weight of pledged: 2,425,267.058 oz or 75.43 tonnes
 
 
registered gold that can be used to settle upon: 15,899,689.0 (494.54 tonnes) 
 
 
 
 
true registered gold  (total registered – pledged tonnes15,899,689.0 (494.54 tonnes)   
 
 
total eligible gold: 15,789,569.73 oz   (491.12 tonnes)
 
 
 
total registered, pledged  and eligible (customer) gold  34,144,525.902 oz or 1,062.03 tonnes
 (INCLUDES 4 GC GOLD)
 
 

total 4 GC gold:   126.34 tonnes

total gold net of 4 GC:  935.69 tonnes

end

 
 

I have compiled  data with respect to registered (or dealer) gold taken on first day notice for each of the past 24 months

The data begins on first day notice for the May month taken on the last day of July 2018. and it continues to present day.

I then took, how many deliveries were recorded by the CME for each and every month.  I also included for reference the price of gold on first day notice.

The first graph is a logarithmic  graph and the second graph, linear.

You can see the huge explosion of registered gold at the comex along with deliveries.

 
 
THE DATA AND GRAPHS:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
END

SEPT 14/2021

And now for the wild silver comex results

INITIAL STANDING FOR SILVER//SEPTEMBER

Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 
5034.14  oz
 
Delaware
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil OZ
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
418,301.495
 OZ
Delaware
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
No of oz served today (contracts)
28
 
CONTRACT(S)
 
140,000  OZ)
 
No of oz to be served (notices)
294 contracts
 1,470,000oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  5245 contracts

 

26,225,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
 
We had 0 deposit into the dealer
 
 

total dealer deposits:  nil        oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had  1 deposits into customer account (ELIGIBLE ACCOUNT)

i) Into Delaware:  418,301.495 oz

 

 
 
 

JPMorgan now has 186.501 million oz  silver inventory or 51.23% of all official comex silver. (186.501 million/361.431 million

total customer deposits today 418,301.495   oz

we had 1 withdrawals

i) out ofDelaware:  5034.140 oz

 

 

total withdrawal 5034.140        oz

 

adjustments:1 CNT
dealer to customer:  2,566,818.253 oz
 
 
 

Total dealer(registered) silver: 102.519 million oz

total registered and eligible silver:  361.421 million oz

a net.0.415 million oz  enters  the comex silver vaults.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 
 
For Sept. we have an open interest of 322 for a GAIN of 25 contracts.  We had 6 notices served on Monday, so we GAINED 31 contracts or 155,000 additional oz will  stand for delivery at the comex in this very active delivery month of September.
 
 
 

OCTOBER LOST 81 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 2079

NOVEMBER GAINED 3 TO STAND AT  104

DEC LOST 1065 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 121,804

 
NO. OF NOTICES FILED: 28  FOR 140,000 OZ.

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in SEPTEMBER. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at  5245 x 5,000 oz = 26,225,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of SEPT (322) and the number of notices served upon today 28 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the SEPT standings for silver for the SEPT./2021 contract month: 5245 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of SEPT(322)  – number of notices served upon today (28) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the SEPTEMBER contract month .equals 27,695,000 oz. ..

We gained 31 contract or 155,000 oz will  stand on this side of the pond 

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME  40,912 CONTRACTS // volume dreadful///

 

FOR YESTERDAY  50,083  ,CONFIRMED VOLUME/ /awful

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV  RISES TO -1.64% (SEPT14/2021)

SILVER FUND POSITIVE TO NAV

no of oz of physical silver held  JULY 8.2021;  150,926,000  (GAIN OF 6.411 MILION OZ IN A MONTH)

No of oz of physical silver held; MAY 24/2021  144,515,694 OZ

No. of oz of physical silver held:  Sept 20/20: 85,907.3616  Oz

No of oz pf physical silver held: Dec 21/2019:  65,073.570 Oz

During the past 8 months Sprott has added: 58,608.30 Oz

So far this year: 53.8 million oz

2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -0.85% nav   (SEPT14)/2021 )

 

3. SPROTT CEF .A   FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA)

NAV $18.45 TRADING 17.89//NEGATIVE  3.04

 

END

 

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/(this vehicle is a fraud as there is no gold behind them!

SEPT 14/WITH GOLD UP $12,90 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.04 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1000.21 TONNES

SEPTEMBER 13//WITH GOLD UP $1.70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 998.17 TONNES

SEPTEMBER 10//WITH GOLD DOWN $7.40//A SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD”: A WITHDRAWAL OF .35 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 998.17

SEPT 9/WITH GOLD UP $7.10 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 998.52 TONNES/

SEPT 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.90 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 998.52 TONNES

SEPT 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $35.35 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY REST AT 998.52 TONNES.

SEPT 3/WITH GOLD UP $22.00 TODAY: A HUGE  CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .74 TONNES FROM THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 999.52 TONNES

SEPT 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.45 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1000.26 TONNES

SEPT 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00 TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.46 TONNES FORM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1000.26 TONNES.

AUGUST 31/WITH GOLD UP $5.60 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1001.72 TONNES./

AUGUST 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.15 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1001.72 TONNES/

AUGUST 27/WITH GOLD UP $23.79 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1001.72 TONNES

AUGUST 26/WITH GOLD UP $6.10 TODAY, A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.91 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1001.72 TONNES.

AUGUST 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $17.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1004.63 TONNES

AUGUST 24/ WITH GOLD UP $2.60 TODAY: A MONSTER CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 4.95 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1006.66 TONNES.

AUGUST 23/WITH GOLD UP $21.25 TODAY:  NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1011.61 TONNES// 

AUGUST 20/WITH GOLD UP $1.05 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 3.49 TONNES FROM THE GLD //INVENTORY RESTS AT 1011.61 TONNES

AUGUST 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.30 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1015.10 TONNES/

AUGUST 18/WITH GOLD  DOWN $2.85 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.53 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1015.10 TONNES/

AUGUST 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.50 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1020.63 TONNES

AUGUST 16/WITH GOLD UP $11.50 TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A LOSS OF 1.75 TONNES FROM TH EGLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1021.79 TONNES

AUGUST 13/WITH GOLD UP $26.20 TODAY NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1023.54 TONNES

AUGUST 12/ WITH GOLD DOWN $1.20 TODAY NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1023.54 TONNES

AUGUST 11/WITH GOLD UP $21.20 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1023.54 TONNES

AUGUST 10/WITH GOLD UP $11.50 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.75 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1023.54 TONNES

AUGUST 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $37.10 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1025.29 TONNES

AUGUST 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $44.10 TODAY: TWO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF .36 TONNES TO PAY FOR FEES. ANDLATE IN THE DAY A HUGE 2.32 TONNE WITHDRAWAL//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1025.29 TONNES

AUGUST 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.15 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1027.97 TONNES

AUGUST 4/WITH GOLD UP $.45 TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1027.97 TONNES

AUGUST 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.95 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.75 TONNES FROM THE GLD../INVENTORY RESTS AT 1029.71 TONNES.

AUGUST 2/WITH GOLD UP $4.45 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1031.46 TONNES.

JULY 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $17.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1031.46 TONNES

JULY 29/WITH GOLD UP $29.80 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A HUGE PAPER DEPOSIT OF 5.82 TONNES INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1031.46 TONNES

JULY 28/WITH GOLD UP $1.00 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1025.64 TONNES

JULY 27/WITH GOLD UP 90 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1025.64 TONNES.

JULY 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.65 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1027.35 TONNES.

JULY 23/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.20 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1027.35 TONNES

JULY 22/WITH GOLD UP $2.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1027.38 TONNES

JULY 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.85 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1028.55 TONNES/

 
 
 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Inventory rests tonight at:

 

SEPT 14 / GLD INVENTORY 1000.21 tonnes

 

LAST;  1309 TRADING DAYS:   +75.40 TONNES HAVE BEEN ADDED THE GLD

 

LAST 980 TRADING DAYS// +  250.82. TONNES HAVE NOW  BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them!)

SEPT 14/WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.11 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.624 MILLION OZ

SEPT 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 12 CENTS; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.131MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 545.735 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 10 WITH SILVER DOWN 26 CENTS; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 547.866 MILLION OZ..

SEPT 9/ WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 547.866 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 8/WITH SILVE DOWN 30 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.037 MILLION OF FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 547.866 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 32 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 549.903 MILLION OZ.

SEPT 3/WITH SILVER UP 83 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 549.903 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 29 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 977,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 549.903 MILLION OZ

SEPT 1/WITH SILVER UP 20 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 550.880 MILLION OZ.

AUGUST 31/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 5.002 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 550.880 MILLION OZ

 

AUGUST 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY REST S AT 545.878 MILLION OZ////

AUGUST 27/WITH SILVER UP 47 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 545.878 MILLION OZ/./

AUGUST 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 22 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 545.878 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 545.878 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST24/WITH SILVER UP 37 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLSV: ANOTHER PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 3.427 MILLION OZ AND THIS IS HEADING FOR SPROTT//INVENTORY RESTS AT 545.878 MILLION OZ..

AUGUST 23/WITH SILVER UP 50 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV;A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.641 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 549.305 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 551.946 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.389 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 551.946 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 18/ WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.131 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV.INVENTORY REST AT 553.375 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 555.466 MILLION OZ.

AUGUST 16/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 555.466 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 13/WITH SILVER UP 59 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE   SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.038 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 555.466 MILLION OZ.

AUGUST 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 39 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 553.428 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 11/WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 553.428 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 10.WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 553.428 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 78 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 371,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 553.428 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 86 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 553.057 MILLION OZ.

AUGUST 5/WITH  SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY;NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 553.057 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 12 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV;A WITHDRAWAL OF 240,000 OZ FORM THE SLV//INVENTORY REST AT 553.057 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 3/WITH  SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 553.297 MILLION OZ..

AUGUST 2/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 553.297 MILLION OZ.

JULY 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.02 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 553.297 MILLION OZ//

JULY 29/WITH SILVER UP 86 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.151 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 552.277 MILLION OZ..

JULY 28/WITH SILVER UP 20 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 555.428 MILLION OZ//

JULY 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 64 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 555.428 MILLION OZ..

JULY 26/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 555.428 MILLION OZ.

JULY 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 555.428 MILLION OZ.

JULY 22/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.483 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 555.428 MILLION OZ..

JULY 21/WITH SILVER UP 25 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 556.911 MILLION OZ//

 
 

SLV INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT

SEPT 14/2021      544.624 MILLION OZ

 
 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

Peter Schiff

 

EGON VON GREYERZ//MATHEW PIEPENBERG/JIM RICKARDS/PAM AND RUSS MARTENS

 

OR LAWRIE WILLIAMS

LAWRIE WILLIAMS: Gold and silver

 

-END-

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

end

OTHER PHYSICAL STORIES//COMMODITIES/SHIPPING

Shipping costs are escalating rapidly and thus goods must rise in price as well

(Greg Miller)

“Absolutely Incredible”: It Costs 68 New Ferraris To Rent A 12-Year-Old Container Ship For Just Three Months

 
MONDAY, SEP 13, 2021 – 03:30 AM

By Greg Miller of FreightWaves

You can buy a brand-new Ferrari starting at $250,000. To rent a 12-year-old container ship for a mere three months, it could cost you a lot more than that: as much as 68 new Ferraris. Euroseas confirmed this week that it chartered its 2009-built, 4,250-twenty-foot equivalent unit container ship Synergy Oakland for 60-85 days at a gross rate of $195,000-$202,000 per day starting in the second half of October.

This is the highest time-charter rate ever achieved by any vessel in our fleet and one of the highest rates ever achieved in our industry,” said Euroseas CEO Aristides Pittas.

The Synergy Oakland rate “is absolutely incredible,” said Charles Mercier, senior container market analyst at Alphaliner, in an interview with American Shipper on Friday.

“We have never seen a classic Panamax getting so much, although it is only a short-term commitment,” he said. (A classic Panamax is a container ship with capacity of 4,000-5,000 TEUs.)

High-water mark for short-term rates

The Synergy Oakland rate is at the all-time high in the short-term market, matching the rate on a six-month charter of a larger 8,500-TEU ship in July. A report in late July of a $300,000-per-day charter turned out to be a special transaction with complex terms and is not comparable.

According to U.K.-based data provider VesselsValue, the Synergy Oakland has a secondhand value of $71.17 million. The charter rate for the Synergy Oakland is so high that the ship will earn up to a quarter of its resale value in just three months — the equivalent of a building owner paying off the entire mortgage with rent income from a single year.

Two other recent deals are even more extreme in relation to resale value. Alphaliner reported that CU Lines has chartered the 2005-built, 2,751-TEU Northern Vivacity for six months at $155,000 per day and the 2,492-TEU Groton for five to six months at $135,000 per day.

VesselsValue puts the current value of the Northern Vivacity at $34.61 million, meaning that this 16-year-old ship will earn 80% of its resale value in a half-year period.

The Groton is worth $30.52 million, according to VesselsValue. Its upcoming charter will cover 67%-80% of the 19-year-old ship’s value.

Charterers of such ships “are of course going to pay a fortune in hire,” said Mercier. “But at the same time, they are making a lot of money on the cargo side — the rates on the cargo side are incredible and continue to rise — so that even while they are paying astronomical charter rates, they are still going to make a substantial profit.”

Different dynamics in long-term market

What happens in the short-term charter market hinges on spot freight rates. As long as spot rates stay as stratospheric as they are now, expect more headlines on $200,000-per-day charters. The dynamic is different in the long-term, multiyear market. Rates are historically elevated but much lower than short-term rates; for example, a ship the size of the Synergy Oakland would earn $50,000 per day for three years.

As the container shipping frenzy has intensified in recent months, long-term charter rates have risen and durations have lengthened to three years, then four, then five.

But this week, Alphaliner reported signs of potential stabilization of both pricing and duration in the long-term market.

A 4,500-TEU ship was taken for three years at $49,750 per day, below recent charters in the low $50,000s; three-year deals in the 2,700- to 2,900-TEU segment have steadied at $35,000 per day; and a 1,740-TEU ship was reportedly chartered for one-and-a-half years in the low $30,000s per day — a rate that previously required charterers to accept a three-year term.

“Recently, we have seen some reluctance by charterers to embark on four- and five-year deals for certain ship types and the periods are not increasing anymore. We have seen a bit more periods of three years and even only 24 months,” said Mercier.

“But there are conflicting signals and we have to be careful because we don’t know whether this is the beginning of a peak or just a plateau. The market has already been so full of surprises. The big reason why charter rates might potentially start leveling off is because if they keep rising at such a pace, more and more liner companies will be willing to buy ships rather than charter them.”

What happens when freight rates fall?

If charterers are signing ship leases that run through 2025 or 2026 for $30,000-$50,000 per day and freight rates collapse starting in 2023 or 2024, what would happen to all these high-priced charter contracts? Previously, in the years since the financial crisis, several charterers have either renegotiated leases or broken them.

Mercier warned, “It has happened in the past so it could very well happen again in the future that there will be a complete mismatch between super-expensive time-charter commitments on one hand and a falling freight-rate market on the other, with the liner shipping companies bleeding money and having no option but to renegotiate their charter agreements.”

Constantin Baack, CEO of MPC Container Ships (Oslo: MPCC), was asked about this risk on the company’s latest earnings call.

“There is not a legal path to renegotiate contracts,” said Baack. “The contracts are contracts and are firm. Having said that, obviously there have been times in the past, post-financial crisis, when renegotiation of contracts took place.

“But looking at the counterparties at the moment … these guys are significantly deleveraging their balance sheets, so I would argue the whole industry is in much better shape than post-financial crisis.”

end

Top UPS Exec Warns Supply Chain Disarray Will Leave Permanent Scar

 
MONDAY, SEP 13, 2021 – 05:02 PM

UPS, one of the world’s largest delivery companies, expects global supply chain woes to carry into 2022. The disruption to the complex web of airports, seaports, and land ports, cargo freight and container shipping lines, and trucking companies that move goods worldwide remains strained and is expected to leave a permanent scar on globalization. 

Scott Price, president of UPS International, told FT that multinational retailers and manufacturers are regionalizing their supply chains:

“A lot of companies are coming to us saying ‘where is the best place to put manufacturing and assembly?'” he said. “There’s an understanding that reliance on stretched supply chains puts you at risk.”

Price, who manages the company’s international businesses, said the pandemic downturn of the travel industry had made it challenging for companies moving large amounts of cargo in the belly of passenger aircraft.

He forecasted recovery in the air travel industry may take until 2025. 

Price expects multinational companies to reshuffle their factories in Asia to North or South America to shrink supply chain footprints. 

“One of the reasons it [supply chain regionalization] accelerated is companies were surprised how little optionality existed during this period,” he said. 

Shipping prices for the Atlanta-based logistics company said annual price increase for customers would be about 2.8%, well below the 10-year average. 

In a separate interview, Price told AFP News that:

“I half-jokingly tell people’ Order your Christmas presents now because otherwise on Christmas day, there may just be a picture of something that’s not coming until February or March.'”

A few weeks ago, UPS’ competitor DHL made a similar warning about congested transpacific shipping lanes. 

“We do not expect freight rates to stabilize in the near term,” according to Karsten Michaelis, head of ocean freight at DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific.

“The combination of a year of disruption, lack of containers, port congestions and a shortage of vessels in the right positions is creating a situation where cargo demand far exceeds available capacity.”

Last Friday, new data from ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, California, showed vessel congestion was at a record high. 

The latest word from top shippers on the frontlines is that supply chains disruptions are not waning anytime soon and have pressured producer prices higher. The Labor Department’s August Consumer Price Index print will be released on Tuesday is expected to remain elevated. 

ALUMINUM

ALUMINUM prices continue to rise and this will cause major price increases in many commodities

(zerohedge) 

Aluminum Tops $3,000 For First Time Since 2008 On Supply Woes

 
MONDAY, SEP 13, 2021 – 08:00 PM

Aluminum prices on the London Metal Exchange hit a 13-year high Monday, extending a year-long vertical ramp amid supply risks in Guinea and alumina refining woes in China and Europe. 

The benchmark contract on the LME climbed nearly 1%, touching its highest level since 2008 at $3,000 per ton. Prices have jumped 50% this year and 15% in the last three weeks. 

Aluminum prices have been supported by production curbs in Chinese smelting regions, often to alleviate the strain on the power grid. The latest price surge comes from a military coup in Guinea last Monday sparked concerns over the supply of bauxite, a sedimentary rock with high aluminum content.

A stream of announcements from China has been about challenges faced by smelters. On Monday, Steelhome reported that Yunnan would limit smelter capacity to reduce energy. Smelters in the European Union are also facing pressure with record-high power costs.  

“In China and increasingly in the EU, policy risk to aluminum supply is growing,” Goldman Sachs’ analysts Jeff Curri told clients in a note Monday. He is not worried about the coup in Guinea affecting the bauxite supply just yet and says upside risks persist due to further logistical bottlenecks. 

Another factor boosting prices is dwindling exchange stockpiles and strong demand. LME warehouses report aluminum inventories have plunged 33% since March to 1.3 million tons, and stocks in Shanghai Futures Exchange plummeted 42% to 228,529 tons since April. 

The metal has wide applications in everything from car pates, appliances, defense weapons, airplanes, and even the soda can, has faced strong demand since the pandemic after global central banks and governments unleashed trillions of dollars in stimulus. Goldman Curri recently told clients:

“As demand improves seasonally from September, aided by reduced lockdown effects and some probable supportive policy adjustments, we expect continued tightness onshore into Q4 and support for higher import volumes of refined metal. This fundamental setup will offer support for a trend higher in both copper and aluminum prices in particular.”

Another tailwind for Bloomberg Industrial Metals Index, already at a decade high, could be the troughing of China’s credit impulse

END

El Erian warns that the inflation we are now seeing is not transitory and that a Maersk executive warns that only lower consumer demand will fix broken supply chains.

(zerohedge

El-Erian Fears ‘Not Transitory’ Stagflation As Maersk Exec Warns Only “Lower Consumer Demand” Will Fix Broken Supply Chains

 
TUESDAY, SEP 14, 2021 – 05:45 AM

“We need to work out how we break this vicious circle,” which is leaving shelves empty of goods across the world, said Morten Engelstoft, chief executive of Maersk-owned APM Terminals.

In Engelstoft’s view, the crisis was created by surging demand putting strain on container groups, suppliers and logistics companies as they struggled to deliver goods.

The boss of one of the world’s largest port and terminal operators does have a solution – stop buying so much shit!

“We need lower [consumer demand] growth to give the supply chain time to catch up, or differently spread out growth. Over a long period of time, we will need to recover efficiency.”

As The FT reports, congested ports are being hit by a global shortage of truck drivers and constricted space at warehouses, causing further delays in deliveries disrupted by the Covid-19 crisis.

Brian Sondey, chief executive of Triton International, the world’s largest container leasing company, said container volumes were “too large to clear out during that window”.

“Consensus in the industry is we’re unlikely to see a cleaning up of the situation until deep into next year,” he added.

Mohamed El-Erian also sees these disruptions “will be with us for a while,” prompting producer pries to continue soaring around the world.

Fewer chief executives have confidence that such disruptions are temporary and quickly reversible. This will restrain growth plans despite robust demand, and increase pressure to raise prices to offset higher costs.

Rather than a one-off dynamic, the global economy is experiencing waves of supply disruptions suggesting that longer-term forces are also in play. Yet some policymakers and market participants continue to assert that supply-demand imbalances are transitory, soon to be resolved by market forces.

El-Erian warns that while there are some ‘reversible factors’, supply side troubles could last for one to two years, if not more, which translates into stagflationary winds for the global economy that are unfamiliar to those that did not live through the 1970s.

This could become an issue for many asset classes where valuations embody a considerable bet on the predictability and effectiveness of central bank support, including a monetary policy soft-landing in a Goldilocks economy that is not too hot or too cold.

36,811100
 
CRYPTOCURRENCIES/
 
end
 

Your early TUESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results, important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs usa dollar/CLOSED DOWN AT 6.4470 

 

//OFFSHORE YUAN 6.4406  /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 52.77 PTS OR 1.42% 

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 311.58 PTS OR 1.21 %

2. Nikkei closed UP 222.73 PTS OR 0.73% 

 

3. Europe stocks  ALL RED

 

USA dollar INDEX UP TO  92.61/Euro RISES TO 1.1809

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +.045/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 110.12/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

3c Nikkei now JUST ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 70.69 and Brent: 73.83

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE CLOSED UP//  OFF- SHORE: UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO -.306%/Italian 10 Yr bond yield FALLS to 0.69% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 0.34%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.04: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 0.78

3k Gold at $1793.00 silver at: 23.65   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 20/100 in roubles/dollar) 72.99

3m oil into the 70 dollar handle for WTI and  73 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 110.12 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9218 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 1.0887 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to 0.336%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 1.348% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 1.925%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 8.45..  VERY DEADLY

Futures Coiled Ahead Of Critical CPI Print

 
TUESDAY, SEP 14, 2021 – 07:55 AM

Having come dangerously close to dropping 6 days in a row, the longest streak since Feb 2020, US stock-index futures and European stocks hugged the unchanged line on Tuesday after rebounding furiously in the last hour of trading on Monday ahead of key CPI data that is expected to show a fourth month of U.S. inflation at 5% or more, and which will shape investor expectations about the likely timing of the Fed taper. S&P 500 E-minis were up 2 points, or 0.04%, at 07:15 am ET. Dow E-minis were up 10 points, or 0.03%, while Nasdaq 100 E-minis were down 2.75 points, or 0.02%. Treasury yields and the dollar were steady.

Oil stocks, which were the best performers on Monday, extended gains into premarket trading, as crude prices hit a six-week high on expectations of more supply disruptions due to a hurricane in the Gulf Coast. Major technology stocks, which had lagged their broader peers in the previous session, were muted in premarket trade.

US-listed Chinese stocks slump in premarket trading Tuesday as China’s sweeping regulatory crackdown on industries from technology to after-school tutoring and ride-hailing continues to weigh on investor sentiment. Regulators in Beijing are going to accelerate the drafting and implementation of laws in order to protect minors on the internet, according to the official Xinhua News Agency. Large-cap tech stocks are leading the decline this morning with Alibaba -1.7%, Pinduoduo -1.9%, NetEase -2.8%, Baidu -1.9% and Didi -0.9% as of 6:35 am in New York. Apple shares rose in pre-market trading as the company patched a security flaw in its Messages app and prepares a highly anticipated product launch on Tuesday.

Here are some of the other notable biggest movers today:

  • Oracle Corp. (ORCL) shares decline 1.8% in U.S. premarket trading after the software maker posted sales that missed analysts’ estimates
  • SeaChange International Inc. (SEAC), the provider of streaming video services, climbs after posting 2Q revenue that beat the average analyst estimate
  • Communications Systems (JCS) shares jump 37% in U.S. premarket trading after the firm declared a special dividend
  • SmileDirectClub (SDC) and Aterian (ATER) both rise in U.S. premarket trading, continuing their gains from the prior session amid discussion and touts for the stocks on Reddit and StockTwits
  • Angi (ANGI) gained as much as 6% Tuesday postmarket after the digital platform for home services reported a 21% jump in total revenue for August
  • Atyr Pharma (LIFE) jump 19% in U.S. premarket as analysts raise their PTs on the stock following its announcement of positive results from a trial on its ATYR1923 lung disease treatment
  • Akerna (KERN) soared on Monday’s extended trading after saying it has signed an agreement to acquire 365 Cannabis in a $17 million deal

Focus now turns to August consumer price data, due at 8:30am ET (1230 GMT), which is expected to show if a spike in inflation this year is as transitory as the Federal Reserve has posited. A Bloomberg poll expects the reading to see a modest drop from July. Investors are concerned that a sustained rise in inflation could push the Fed into tightening policy earlier than signaled, especially after data last week showed a strong rise in August producer prices.

In terms of what to expect, Deutsche Bank economists think there’ll be a deceleration in the month-on-month figures for both headline CPI and core CPI, which should largely be a function of demand continuing to soften in Covid-affected sectors. They see the monthly readings at +0.4% for headline and +0.2% for core, both of which would be the slowest in six months (the YoY print is still expected to be 5.3% and 4.2% for headline and core respectively.). That said, DB’s Jim Reid points out that “US inflation has had a regular habit of surprising to the upside in recent months, and you have to go back all the way to November’s print to find the last time that month-on-month headline CPI came in beneath the median estimate on Bloomberg.”

“The market should take a breather for a CPI figure softer than the 5.3% expected, but a strong release will likely further dampen the mood,” said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote. “High inflation is the major reason why the Fed can’t keep doing what it does: throwing cheap liquidity into the market.”

“Investors don’t want to have massive positions before the inflation data as the risks are to the upside as Covid inflation continues to hamper supply chains,” Edward Moya, a senior market analyst at Oanda, said in a note. “If inflation comes in hotter-than-expected, taper expectations could shift from December to November.”

Focus is also on the possible passage of U.S. President Joe Biden’s $3.5 trillion budget package, which is expected to include a proposed corporate tax rate hike to 26.5% from 21%. A possible hike in corporate taxes comes as yet another uncertainty, along with recent concerns over slowing economic growth due to rising COVID-19 cases.

European equities recovered after selling off at the open; the Stoxx Europe 600 Index was little changed as carmakers gained but mining companies declined. JD Sports Fashion jumped 8.4% to an all-time high after the British retailer published results and guidance that exceeded investor expectations. The FTSE MIB outperformed with a 0.5% gain, DAX and IBEX recover into positive territory. CAC is the notable underpeformer, stalling around the lows as other indexes rebound. Autos, oil & gas and tech are best performers, while basic-resources shares declined as iron ore dropped for a fifth day, with production curbs in China weighing on demand and investors awaiting industrial and economic data due this week.

European luxury stocks slumped again on renewed China covid, regulatory worries: LVMH, Kering and Prada were downgraded at Alphavalue amid worries over sector’s reliance on China, which makes the luxury industry “very vulnerable.” The latest developments around Covid-19 in the country added to worries on the sector.

Spanish utilities stocks fell after the country’s government said it will cap windfall profits for power companies in a bid to curtail the impact of record-high energy prices. Endesa -2.9%, Iberdrola -1.2%; Red Electrica, Naturgy and Enagas all dip. The drop comes after Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez said the government will seek to “redirect” profits from companies to consumers by “capping gas bills and cutting the size of electricity bills.” Meanwhile, Spain electricity prices just hit a new all time high in a bitter lesson for locals that “green” energy comes with soaring costs.

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average closed at the highest level since 1990 as exporters cheered a weaker currency which briefly lifted the index to its highest in more than three decades, while the KOSPI (+0.7%) outperformed despite the lack of fresh catalysts aside from South Korean President Moon targeting fully vaccinating 70% of the population by the end of next month. The Hang Seng (-1.2%) and the Shanghai Comp. (-1.4%) were lacklustre ahead of tomorrow’s activity data and speculation the PBoC may not fully roll over this month’s MLF maturities, while the focus was on China Evergrande with the Co.’s May 2023 Shanghai exchange-traded bond paused due to abnormal fluctuations in which it rose by nearly 23% on denial of bankruptcy rumours, although its actual shares were down 10% after it flagged a continued significant decline in contract sales and is exploring asset sales, as well as hired financial advisers to assess its capital structure. Australia’s ASX 200 (+0.2%) traded with a non-committal tone for most of the session as outperformance in energy was offset by losses in the tech sector and although New South Wales posted its lowest daily COVID infections in almost two weeks, this was still over 1,100 cases and there was also the announcement of a four-week lockdown extension for Canberra. 

Here are the main Asian news today:

  • Japanese stocks advanced for a third day, lifting the Nikkei 225 Stock Average to a level last seen during the bubble economy more than three decades ago: Japan’s Nikkei 225 Returns to Bubble-Economy Level Seen in 1990
  • Singapore is planning to boost its domestic stock market by investing in local and regional mid-cap companies, including IPOs: Singapore Is Said to Plan Local Stocks Boost With Temasek Fund
  • China’s government is assembling a group of accounting and legal experts to examine the finances of China Evergrande, a potential precursor to a restructuring of the world’s most indebted developer: China Hires Its Own Evergrande Advisers as Restructuring Looms
  • Indian stocks are throwing up rare signals pointing to the possibility of further gains after a powerful rally: Indian Stocks Outpacing World by Most Since 2018 Emboldens Bulls
  • Surging demand from China’s banks to offload excessive dollar holdings is adding to signs of liquidity stress in swap markets a day before monthly operations from the PBOC: Chinese Banks Are Dumping Dollars in Swap Markets, Traders Say
  • Indonesian high-yield dollar bonds are beating regional peers as prospects for the economy improve after Covid-19 cases dropped to their lowest since May: Junk Bonds Outperform as Economy Reopens

In rates, Treasuries were slightly lower as U.S. trading gets under way, trailing steeper declines for most EGB markets led by gilts, cheapening ahead of supply. Yields are higher across the curve, by as much as 1.2bp at long end, inside Monday’s ranges; 10-year is higher by 1.4bp at 1.339% vs increases of 4.4bp for U.K. 10-year, 2.2bp for German. Breakeven inflation rates for 5-, 10- and 30-year TIPS have stabilized since peaking in May at multiyear highs.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed as the greenback traded mixed versus its Group-of-10 peers while Treasury yields were slightly higher. Sweden’s krona rallied to a two-month high against the euro and advanced versus all other G-10 currencies after inflation data out of the Nordic nation beat the highest forecasts in a Bloomberg survey. CPIF came in at 2.4% y/y, versus a median estimate of 1.9%; CPIF ex. energy came in at 1.4% y/y, versus a median estimate of 1.1%. The Australian dollar was the worst G-10 performer and the nation’s sovereign yields declined after Reserve Bank Governor Philip Lowe pushed back on current market pricing, reiterating that conditions for a rate hike are unlikely until 2024. The pound advanced after data showing a buoyant U.K. labor market, with the number of workers on company payrolls climbing above its pre-pandemic level. The yen dropped for a third day before U.S. inflation data; Japan’s benchmark bond wasn’t traded until 3pm Tokyo after recording no transactions on Monday.

In commodities, Crude oil marked up a third day of gains with another hurricane emerging just weeks after Ida encumbered local output. The dip in stocks heading into the European cash open prompted futures to come off best levels at the time. Aside from that, the main driver for prices has been Hurricane Nicholas which made landfall and eyes the Gulf coast. That being said, Nicholas is expected to weaken to a tropical depression by Wednesday. The morning also saw the release of the IEA OMR, which cut its 2021 global demand growth forecast by 105k BPD (in-line with OPEC) but upgraded the 2022 forecast by 85k BPD to 3.2mln BPD (vs OPEC’s 4.2mln BPD) and noted signs of abating COVID cases means demand is expected to rebound sharply in Oct by 1.6mln BPD. IEA noted that strong pent-up demand, vaccinations should underpin robust rebound in oil demand from Q4 2021, whilst the report gave a hat-tip to the recent US SPR sales and China’s reserves release, which should help balance some of the strong pent-up demand cited by the IEA and expected in Q4. The agency lowered its Aug and Sep demand forecasts by almost 600k BPD on China and Southeast Asia mobility curbs.

Looking at today’s session, the focal point is August CPI data, which will help inform the Fed’s deliberations of asset-purchase tapering at next week’s meeting. Other releases include the US NFIB small business optimism index for August, and UK unemployment for July. From central banks, we’ll hear from Bank of England Governor Bailey, and separately, the UN General Assembly will be opening in New York City.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.1% to 4,473.00
  • STOXX Europe 600 little changed at 467.19
  • MXAP little changed at 205.81
  • MXAPJ down 0.3% to 660.12
  • Nikkei up 0.7% to 30,670.10
  • Topix up 1.0% to 2,118.87
  • Hang Seng Index down 1.2% to 25,502.23
  • Shanghai Composite down 1.4% to 3,662.60
  • Sensex up 0.2% to 58,284.08
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.2% to 7,437.30
  • Kospi up 0.7% to 3,148.83
  • German 10Y yield rose 1.7 bps to -0.314%
  • Euro up 0.1% to $1.1825
  • Brent Futures up 0.9% to $74.13/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.2% to $1,789.65
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.16% to 92.52

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • Boris Johnson will confirm Tuesday that booster vaccinations against the coronavirus will be rolled out to the most vulnerable people this fall, as he sets out the U.K.’s new approach to tackling the virus.
  • The U.K. delayed the introduction of additional post-Brexit border checks on goods from the European Union, as retailers battle a supply chain crisis fueled by the pandemic and the effects of quitting the EU
  • Surging demand from China’s banks to offload excessive dollar holdings is adding to signs of liquidity stress in swap markets ahead of monthly operations from the People’s Bank of China on Wednesday
  • A relentless rally in Europe’s energy prices is piling up pressure on governments, with Spain and Greece taking steps to cushion the blow for consumers

A snapshot breakdown of global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asia-Pac stocks eventually followed suit to the mostly positive handover from the US, where a late rebound helped Wall Street snap a five-day losing streak but with gains capped ahead of US CPI data. The ASX 200 (+0.2%) traded with a non-committal tone for most of the session as outperformance in energy was offset by losses in the tech sector and although New South Wales posted its lowest daily COVID infections in almost two weeks, this was still over 1,100 cases and there was also the announcement of a four-week lockdown extension for Canberra. The Nikkei 225 (+0.7%) gained as exporters cheered a weaker currency which briefly lifted the index to its highest in more than three decades, while the KOSPI (+0.7%) outperformed despite the lack of fresh catalysts aside from South Korean President Moon targeting fully vaccinating 70% of the population by the end of next month. The Hang Seng (-1.2%) and the Shanghai Comp. (-1.4%) were lacklustre ahead of tomorrow’s activity data and speculation the PBoC may not fully roll over this month’s MLF maturities, while the focus was on China Evergrande with the Co.’s May 2023 Shanghai exchange-traded bond paused due to abnormal fluctuations in which it rose by nearly 23% on denial of bankruptcy rumours, although its actual shares were down 10% after it flagged a continued significant decline in contract sales and is exploring asset sales, as well as hired financial advisers to assess its capital structure. Finally, 10yr JGBs were subdued as Japanese stocks traded at 31-year highs and amid the uninspired picture for T-notes and Bund futures, while firmer demand at the enhanced liquidity auction for longer-dated JGBs failed to inspire underlying bond prices.

Top Asian News

  • China Regulator Advises Against Overseas Travel Over Holidays
  • Tata Mulling Leadership Makeover of $106 Billion Indian Empire
  • Facing Pressure, Kakao Billionaire to Jettison Decade-Old Model
  • Evergrande’s Overdue Wealth Products Become Crisis Flashpoint

Bourses in Europe retain the mixed narrative seen at the cash open (Euro Stoxx 50 -0.1%; Stoxx 600 -0.1%), whilst losses in China accelerated towards the close. US equity futures have been largely moving in tandem with their European counterparts ahead of US CPI, albeit in a more contained range and with the tech-laden NQ (Unch) currently narrowly lagging vs cyclical RTY (+0.2%) – with traders also cognizant of Quad Witching this Friday. Sectors in Europe do not portray a particular theme, but Oil & Gas remains as one of the winners amid price action in the crude complex, whilst basic resources hold their spot as the laggard as base metal prices falter. Travel & leisure stays around the middle of the pack and relatively flat, with reports overnight suggesting that UK ministers are said to be mulling axing pre-departure tests to “low risk” countries for Britons who have been fully vaccinated. In terms of individual movers. Ocado (-2.6%) is pressured following a downbeat trading update, but the group expects retail to deliver strong revenue growth in FY22. SAP (-0.3%) is pressured as peer Oracle (-1.9% pre-market) fell post-earnings. Pandora (+5.8%) is bolstered as the group is to up its share buyback programme by some DKK 500mln. Finally, the morning saw the release of the BofA Fund Manager Survey, which noted that equity protection was at the lowest since Jan 2018 and liquidity conditions are viewed as best since just before the 2008 global financial crisis.

Top European News

  • Tesla-Loving Norway Picks Pro-Oil Labor as Coalition Talks Start
  • Ukraine Mulls Production of Turkish Bayraktar Drones: Ministry
  • European Gas Notches Fresh Records as Supply Woes Mount
  • Illumina Warns of Potential $400m EU Fine for Closing Grail Deal

In FX, the Aussie did not get much time to appreciate improvements in NAB business confidence and conditions or stronger than expected Q2 house prices before dovish commentary from RBA Governor Lowe relating to market pricing for tightening next year and in 2023. Although he stressed that the Delta outbreak has delayed rather than derailed the economic recovery, a first OCR hike is not envisaged until 2024 even though other countries may raise benchmark rates earlier. Lowe went on to predict a Q2 GDP contraction of at least 2% with risks of a significantly bigger fall and repeated that the Bank wants to see unemployment in the low 4% area ahead of jobs data on Thursday. Aud/Usd is pivoting 0.7350 amidst decent option expiry interest just below between 0.7340-45 (1 bn), but the Aud/Nzd cross is slipping towards 1.0300 from 1.0350+ at one stage as the Kiwi holds above 0.7100 vs its US rival in the run up to NZ Q2 GDP tomorrow. Meanwhile, the Pound has bounced firmly to top 1.3880 at best against a broadly flagging Greenback post-UK labour and earnings/pre-US CPI, but with barriers in Cable at 1.3900 likely to offer resistance in a similar vein to support via the 200 DMA that resides at 1.3831 today.

  • USD/EUR/CAD/JPY/CHF – As noted above, the Buck has back off a bit further from Monday’s best levels, with the DXY straddling 92.500 within a 92.481-664 range and looking for direction from the aforementioned inflation data in the absence of Fed input due to the usual purdah observed in advance of an FOMC meeting. Hence, the Euro is taking some advantage to form a base beyond 1.1800, but could be capped by 1.2 bn option expiries at 1.1835, while the Loonie is hugging a tight line either side of 1.2650 where 1 bn rolls off and does not appear likely to arouse the same size from 1.2600-10 unless WTI crude spikes or Canadian manufacturing sales are super strong. Elsewhere, the Yen is still clinging to 110.00 ahead of Japanese machinery orders and the Franc remains sub-0.9200 following a pick up in Swiss producer and import prices, though nothing strong enough to warrant any change in the SNB’s policy stance.
  • SCANDI/EM – Conversely, Swedish inflation readings may well resonate with the more hawkish Riksbank Board members given the scale of overshoots vs consensus and the Bank’s own estimate, and Eur/Sek is lower in response, while Eur/Nok is down on the back of another rise in Brent to breach Usd 74/brl briefly and bullish Norges Bank regional survey rather than any obvious reaction to the election result. However, the Rub and Mxn are both softer in the face of higher US Treasury yields and curve re-steepening that is also weighing on the Try and Zar in contrast to resilience in the Cnh and Cny irrespective of reports that the PBoC may not roll all this month’s maturing MLFs.
  • RBA Governor Lowe said the Delta outbreak has delayed but not derailed the recovery and reiterated the OCR is unlikely to rise before 2024, while he noted it is difficult to understand markets pricing in of hikes in 2022 and 2023. Lowe added that rates might increase in other countries but domestic factors are different and that the board judged fiscal policy is best response to current Delta lockdowns. Lowe sees Q3 GDP likely to shrink by at least 2% with risk of a significantly larger contraction and stated they cannot keep buying bonds forever with purchases likely to stop sometime next year. Furthermore, he stated that they need to see unemployment in low 4’s to lift wages and that inflation temporarily above 3% would not be a problem. (Newswires)

In commodities, WTI and Brent front-month futures have been choppy but ultimately hold onto gains. The dip in stocks heading into the European cash open prompted futures to come off best levels at the time. Aside from that, the main driver for prices has been Hurricane Nicholas which made landfall and eyes the Gulf coast – although again, it’s worth keeping in mind the impact on refinery demand for US crude. That being said, Nicholas is expected to weaken to a tropical depression by Wednesday. The morning also saw the release of the IEA OMR, which cut its 2021 global demand growth forecast by 105k BPD (in-line with OPEC) but upgraded the 2022 forecast by 85k BPD to 3.2mln BPD (vs OPEC’s 4.2mln BPD) and noted signs of abating COVID cases means demand is expected to rebound sharply in Oct by 1.6mln BPD. IEA noted that strong pent-up demand, vaccinations should underpin robust rebound in oil demand from Q4 2021, whilst the report gave a hat-tip to the recent US SPR sales and China’s reserves release, which should help balance some of the strong pent-up demand cited by the IEA and expected in Q4. The agency lowered its Aug and Sep demand forecasts by almost 600k BPD on China and Southeast Asia mobility curbs. On that note, Chinese regulators have advised against travel over national holidays – with the mid-Autumn festival taking place from Sep 20th. The IEA made no mention of Iranian oil – with participants on the lookout for a potential date for JCPOA talks to resume. From a data perspective, the weekly Private Inventories will be released tonight. WTI resides just under USD 71/bbl, having traded on either side of the figure (vs low USD 70.50/bbl), while its Brent counterpart trades choppily around USD 74/bbl (vs low 73.50/bbl). Elsewhere, spot gold and silver trade on the softer side of today’s current tight range, with the former still under the USD 1,800/oz mark and below its 50 and 21 DMAs at 1,797.73 and 1,799.22, respectively. Elsewhere, LME copper is on the backfoot following late-door losses in Chinese stock markets, with the red metal back under USD 9,500/t. Meanwhile, Chinese coking coal and coke futures closed with losses in excess of 5% amid regulatory concerns, according to traders.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Aug. CPI MoM, est. 0.4%, prior 0.5%; YoY, est. 5.3%, prior 5.4%
  • 8:30am: Aug. CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.3%; YoY, est. 4.2%, prior 4.3%
  • 8:30am: Aug. Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY, prior -0.7%, revised -0.9%
  • 8:30am: Aug. Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY, prior -1.2%

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Yesterday I released my annual Long-Term Asset Return Study (link here). This year’s edition is called “Fiat, Fifty and Frail”, and marks the 50th anniversary of today’s system of fiat money. We show how the last half-century has been the most inflationary in history. So don’t be fooled by the lower inflation in recent years. Fiat money has always been inflationary in aggregate. Indeed in the modern world we’ve stress-tested our monetary system to extremes, with ever-higher levels of debt and unprecedented money printing from central banks. If anything this is increasing post covid. If the exogenous forces keeping inflation down (e.g. globalisation and demographics) reverse then we may have to question what will happen to fiat money. For most of the last few centuries very few would have questioned gold as the permanent anchor of money. So it shouldn’t be too controversial to question whether we will still have fiat money for the entirety of our careers. Please see the full report for much more, including asset returns and economic stats from multiple countries spanning back centuries in some places.

Inflation was one of the big themes of the report, and turning from hundreds of years of data to what’s in front of us today as investors turn their attention to the US CPI release for August later on. In terms of what to expect, our US economists think there’ll be a deceleration in the month-on-month figures for both headline CPI and core CPI, which should largely be a function of demand continuing to soften in Covid-affected sectors. They see the monthly readings at +0.4% for headline and +0.2% for core, both of which would be the slowest in six months. That said, US inflation has had a regular habit of surprising to the upside in recent months, and you have to go back all the way to November’s print to find the last time that month-on-month headline CPI came in beneath the median estimate on Bloomberg. For completeness the YoY print is still expected to be 5.3% and 4.2% for headline and core respectively.

Speaking of inflation, there was continued evidence of building price pressures yesterday from a number of sources. Firstly, there were yet further advances in commodity prices that sent the Bloomberg Commodity Spot index (+0.58%) to its highest level in over a decade by the close, which just shows that for all the discussion about isolated moves lower for specific commodities, it doesn’t appear that we’re yet seeing a broad-based move lower in the aggregate. Among the gainers yesterday were oil prices, with Brent crude (+0.81%) and WTI (+1.05%) both closing at their highest levels in over a month, whilst aluminium rose above $3,000/ton in trading in London before closing down -0.94%, closing at the second highest level since 2008. Liam Fitzpatrick from the DB Metals and Mining team is hosting an expert call on the aluminium market next week, Tuesday 21 September, 15:00 BST / 10:00 EST. Register and access the webinar details (Zoom) here. All important for the macro and for earnings.

The CPI release from the US should reveal more on the inflation front, but equities have put in a steady positive performance over the last 24 hours ahead of that, in spite of continued concerns about the elevated levels of valuations right now. Indeed our survey (link here) results yesterday suggested that 68% expect at least a 5% correction by year end.

By the close of trade, the S&P 500 (+0.23%) had stabilised following a run of 5 successive declines and Europe’s STOXX 600 (+0.29%) also recovered its poise after a run of 4 declines. It was a reasonably broad-based advance given the small overall moves, with over 60% of the S&P’s constituents moving higher on the day. However, energy stocks were the biggest winners on both sides of the Atlantic given those fresh moves higher for commodities mentioned above. Alongside the rally in energy stocks, US cyclicals were broadly very strong yesterday with banks (+1.86%), autos (+1.21%), and airlines (+1.77%) all outperforming at the expense of growth industries such as biotech (-1.16%) and software (-0.31%).

Meanwhile in sovereign bond markets, 10yr US Treasuries ended the session -1.5bps lower at 1.326%, with inflation breakevens (-2.4bps) moving lower over the course of the day, even as the New York Fed’s survey of consumer expectations showed that inflation expectations for 3 years ahead were at a series high of 4%. Over in Europe yields on 10yr bunds (-0.1bps) were little changed on the day,but breakevens (+1.9bps) rose to a post-2013 high of 1.642%, just as the Italian breakeven (+2.3bps) hit a post-2013 high too of 1.557%.

Asian markets are following Wall Street’s lead this morning with the Nikkei (+0.51%) on track for its highest close since 1990. The Kospi (+1.00%), Asx (+0.19%) and India’s Nifty (+0.35%) have advanced too. The Hang Seng (-0.05%) and CSI (-0.29%) are trading weak though while the Shanghai Comp (+0.05%) and ShenZhen Comp (+0.73%) are up. Futures on the S&P 500 are up +0.19% while those on the Stoxx 50 are +0.26%. Elsewhere, crude oil prices are up c. +0.60% as supply in the US is constrained by extreme weather with Tropical Storm Nicholas likely to hit hurricane strength before it makes landfall in Texas, although it’s expected to mostly bypass offshore oil and natural gas platforms.

Turning to the latest on the pandemic, China is experiencing a renewed cluster of cases just a month after it brought the broadest outbreak in the country since the virus first emerged in Wuhan under control. The latest outbreak, which has yet to escape the Fujian province, includes 103 cases in three cities thus far. In order to tame the spread, China has imposed a very strict lockdown for 4.5 million people in the costal city of Xiamen where residents are not allowed to leave for anything other than exceptional circumstances.

Here in the UK, the country’s chief medical officers said that they were in favour of giving children aged 12-15 a single dose of the Pfizer vaccine, which brings them into line with other countries who’ve already been vaccinating healthy individuals in that age bracket. Today, Prime Minister Johnson is expected to outline the government’s plan to manage Covid over the autumn and winter, with details of a booster programme expected next week from the vaccination committee. And that comes against the backdrop of cases having begun to fall again, with the numbers testing positive down -8.4% on the previous week. Separately, Italy’s government announced the country would start administering third doses of Covid-19 vaccines for the most “at-risk” citizens starting next Monday. This comes as a panel of scientists from around the world, including two prominent US FDA experts, published a report in the medical journal The Lancet that stated most vaccinated individuals do not yet need a booster and that governments should focus on getting the unvaccinated their first shots instead.

On the political scene, there was some important news on US taxation from House Democrats, as the Ways and Means Committee released a proposal that would see the top corporate tax rate rise to 26.5% (with an 18% rate on the first $400,000 of income and 21% on income up to $5 million), as the Committees continue to put together the broader reconciliation package that would advance President Biden’s economic agenda. The plan also includes increasing the top personal income tax rate (on dollars earned above $518.4k) to 39.6% from the current 37%, and increasing the capital gains rate on “certain high income individuals” to 25% (from 20%) with an additional 3.8% tax specifically earmarked for Obamacare. The carried interest tax break would be restricted and applied more narrowly, but not eliminated as President Biden has called for in the past. Overall the full tax plan could generate $2.1 trillion of revenue over 10 years, and the committee believes it can derive another $870bn in revenue when tax break language is taken into account. This could go a long way to assuaging some moderate Democrats around the $3.5 trillion over ten year budget reconciliation plan price tag. We will see.

Separately in Germany, with just 12 days left until the federal election, yesterday saw another poll put the centre-left SPD’s lead beyond the margin of error. That was from INSA, and had the SPD on 26%, ahead of Chancellor Merkel’s CDU/CSU on 20.5%, and the Greens on 15%. That pattern of the SPD in first place, followed by the CDU/CSU and then the Greens has been echoed in the averages more broadly as well, with Politico’s poll of polls now putting the SPD on 25%, ahead of the CDU/CSU on 21% and the Greens on 16%.

To the day ahead now, and the aforementioned US CPI reading will be the main data highlight, whilst other releases include the US NFIB small business optimism index for August, and UK unemployment for July. From central banks, we’ll hear from Bank of England Governor Bailey, and separately, the UN General Assembly will be opening in New York City.

end

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)TUESDAY MORNING/MONDAY  NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 52.77  PTS  OR 1.42%   //Hang Sang CLOSED down 311.58 PTS OR 1.21%      /The Nikkei closed UP 222.73 PTS OR 0.73%   //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.18%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP TO 6.4470  /Oil UP TO 70.69 dollars per barrel for WTI and 73.89 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED   /ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED  UP AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.4470. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.4406/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%/

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

/NORTH KOREA

 

end

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

JAPAN/COVID/

 

END
 
 

3 C CHINA

CHINA/Evergrande

China has now reached its Lehman moment:  Evergrande hires a bankruptcy advisor as furious investors protest in vain.

(zerohedge)

Endgame Begins: Evergrande Hires Bankruptcy Advisors As Furious Investors Protest Imminent Default

 
MONDAY, SEP 13, 2021 – 11:00 PM

It took Evergrande less than a day to go from denying “rumors” of bankruptcy (as per a statement posted on its website earlier today), to confirming that a bankruptcy is imminent.

In a filing on the Hong Kong stock exchange on Tuesday, Evergrande which was busy trying to convince angry Chinese mobs that they will get their money and/or apartments and that it has no plans of default, the company all but conceded that a bankruptcy is imminent when it said it has hired notable bankruptcy advisors Houlihan Lokey and Admiralty Harbour Capital as joint FAs to “assess the firm’s capital structure”, a well-known euphemism of “prepare to file for bankruptcy.” And just so there was no doubt as to what is coming next, the company said if it’s unable to repay debts on time or get creditors to agree to extensions or alternative arrangements, it may lead to cross-default.

It quickly went downhill from there, with the company saying that it expects “significant continuing decline” in contract sales in September, resulting in “continuous deterioration” of cash collection, according to the statement. That will place “tremendous pressure” on the group’s cashflow and liquidity.

Finally, guaranteeing that a default is just a matter of days if not less, the company admitted that it has failed to make “material progress” on the sale of stakes in China Evergrande New Energy Vehicle Group Ltd. and Evergrande Property Services Group Ltd., while the sale of its office building in Hong Kong hasn’t been completed within the expected timetable.

In short a total disaster, and all this is happening a tens of thousands of Chinese are starting to feel insurrection – the real thing, not that January 6 tourist trap – and if they suffer losses, and in a company with $300BN in debt they will suffer major losses, their protests which have been largely peaceful to date will turn quite violent.

As we reported this morning, police descended on Evergrande’s Shenzhen headquarters late Monday after dozens of people gathered to demand repayments on overdue wealth management products. Protesters numbered in the hundreds on Sunday, Caixin reported. In addition to equity investors who are about to lose everything, the company is also facing angry homebuyers, creditors and even its own employees… who are also about to lose everything.

“It looks like they are working on debt restructuring after no concrete results on asset disposals, and the first task is to stabilize the holders of wealth management products which could be a social issue,” said Daniel Fan, a credit analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence. “It seems the developer is working on rescheduling pretty much all onshore debt, and the next step is to do the same for offshore investors.

Translation: a bond default is imminent, and the only question is what will creditors get in return.

How imminent? According to Bloomberg, two units failed to discharge their guarantee obligations on time for wealth management products worth 934 million yuan ($145 million), the company said, adding it’s in talks with issuers and investors on a repayment arrangement. If the company fails to reach a resolution, it’s all over and the bankruptcy process begins.

And while distressed investors are already circling the company’s dollar bonds which are trading around 25-30 cents on the dollar, with the market pricing in a potential restructuring, this is an especially risky proposition according to Citigroup.  According to the bank, the insolvent developer’s bonds are trading at levels that attract the type of investors who place bets on the hardest-hit companies, but dollar bond holders may not be prioritized in a debt restructuring and a resolution could take years, Citi warned. 

“We caution that offshore holdco debt is deeply subordinated to onshore secured bank debt and opco debt, and recovery values in any restructuring could be low,” wrote Citi strategist W.R. Eric Ollom.

“Disposition of Evergrande’s substantial land bank to meet creditor claims could be lengthy, resulting in stretched out legal proceedings.”

Citi also speculated that a solution for Evergrande may include forced core asset sales as well as haircuts for some classes of debt – notably dollar-denominated ones – the Citi strategists wrote, noting that Evergrande’s offshore bonds may be treated as subordinated to bank and opco borrowings in an onshore restructuring. Meanwhile, Nomura credit analyst Iris Chen said a debt restructuring is “almost unavoidable,” predicting a base-case scenario where bondholders would recover 25% of their money.

And while Evergrande’s bonds can’t really fall much more from here, and in fact are prone to short squeezes, the same can not be said for its peers, and as Evergrande stock plunged again, dropping as much as 8.6% to a the lowest since 2014, it also dragged fown lenders and companies that previously disclosed large revenue exposure to the developer after the news that bankruptcy advisors had been hired. Among them, China Minsheng Bank fell 1.2% in Hong Kong; Industrial and Commercial Bank of China fells at least 0.6%, Suning.com was down -0.4%,  Beijing Jiayu Door Window and Curtain Wall Joint-Stock -1.7%, Shenzhen Grandland -1.4%, Skshu Paint -3.5%.

Expect much more pain once the company finally pulls the plug, and China’s Lehman moment arrives.

 

end

Chinese yuan swaps soar amid fears that Evergrande default will lead to a liquidity crisis

(zerohedge)

China Yuan Swaps Soar Amid Fears Evergrande Default Will Lead To Liquidity Crisis

 
TUESDAY, SEP 14, 2021 – 12:00 PM

The initial contagion from the upcoming default of Evergrande, which after the company’s hiring of bankruptcy advisor Houlihan Lokey is just a matter of days, is starting to emerge.

China’s one-year onshore swap curves surged to the highest in almost four years, signaling market worries over liquidity shortage on potential default by a key property developer Evergrande. Interbank borrowing costs also rise ahead of the central bank’s medium-term lending facility operation on Wednesday.

As Bloomberg notes the 1-year dollar-yuan onshore swap – a gauge of funding costs for the Chinese currency via the foreign exchange market – surged as high as 1,843 pips Tuesday, the highest in almost four years.

“Considering huge uncertainties over the key developer’s bond default and the possible spillover to the property sector, market participants might intend to swap more CNH and CNY liquidity in the FX swap market (sell/buy USD against yuan),” said Ken Cheung, Chief Asian FX Strategist at Mizuho.

While one would be hard-pressed top find any fears in US assets, Cheung notes that traders might be preparing for “the liquidity squeeze in crisis mode” adding that a full-blown bankruptcy would trigger a domino effect of defaults in its bonds and wealth management products, or as he put it in terms so simple even those who were in diapers when Lehamn filed, “the collapse of credit would lead to liquidity squeeze in financial markets.”

While funding markets are only now starting to reflect Evergrande default fears, the contagion across China’s credit market has been visible for weeks, with local junk bond yields surging to the highest since the covid crash.

Not helping market liquidity is traders confusion over how much of the 600BN yuan in medium term loans maturing on Wednesday will be rolled over by the PBOC, any liquidity drains by the central bank will lead to even tighter funding conditions and could accelerate the collapse in one or more Chinese companies.

“A partial rollover looks likely given that the 7-day repo rate remains pretty stable and the PBOC will only act when the 7-day moves,” said Hao Zhou senior emerging economist at Commerzbank in Singapore, adding that “the central bank will need more weakening signals to move on rates so maybe next month is a better time window with the Q3 GDP report due.”

His conclusion: “Evergrande hasn’t had a big impact on interbank market yet.” That will change very fast once the company officially files.

CHINA//COVID

I do not like to hear this:  Children below the age of 12 got the Delta variant

(zerohedge)

China Reports First ‘School-Centered’ COVID Outbreak

 
TUESDAY, SEP 14, 2021 – 12:20 AM

Weeks have passed since China finally managed to suppress the broad-based delta-driven COVID outbreak centered around Nanjiang which prompted lockdowns, restrictions on movement and mass testing after the virus spread to nearly two dozen provinces.

But unsurprisingly (since COVID is now endemic to the global human population), a new outbreak has already flared up in Putian, a city of roughly 3MM people in the East Chinese province of Fujian. There’s one interesting detail that sets this outbreak apart from earlier ones: the outbreak has centered around a school, with dozens of school-age children number among the 90 cases that have been confirmed in recent days.

Since September 10, the infections linked to Putian’s epidemic outbreak have soared to 96 in just three days: 79 in Putian, 10 in Xiamen and seven in Quanzhou. The outbreak, which has been deemed “locally transmitted” despite the alleged link to Singapore. Around 20 of these cases have involved children younger than 12.

Because of this, Chinese health experts quoted in the Global Times, a Chinese state-run newspaper, warned that this latest outbreak is unlikely to be tamed by the upcoming Autumn Festival, but should be stamped out before the National Day holidays (which take place in October).

Chinese authorities claimed to have identified the recent traveler as the source of the outbreaks, although the authorities claimed that this patient didn’t test positive until after the quarantine period. The outbreak is said to have two “chains” of transmission: one related to Putou Primary School and one to the Xiesheng shoe factory. The total infections from the school increased to at least 15, along with 10 other infections from the factory. Xianyou county where the school and shoe factory are located started county-wide testing on Monday, testing more than 900,000 people.

What’s more, the city has since asked residents to stay in the city and all schools and kindergartens, excluding grade three senior high students and boarding schools, were asked to go to online classes starting Monday.

Although fewer vehicles were seen in the city’s streets on Monday, the city isn’t on lockdown, according to the GT.

The local health authority has confirmed that the infections were caused by the delta variant. The NHC has warned that there’s still a risk this outbreak could spread to other provinces, and has advised the entire country to be on alert. Right now, the worst-case projections shared with the public suggest the outbreak could continue until early October. The big question now is whether the outbreak will spread to other surrounding provinces.

(zerohedge)

Chinese Authorities Alarmed As Regional COVID Outbreak Sees Cases Double In A Single Day

 
TUESDAY, SEP 14, 2021 – 10:35 AM

Yesterday, we reported that China is presently facing yet another wave of the coronavirus. But this time, instead of just making schools all-remote while urging the vulnerable to vaccinate ASAP, China is embracing all its options for suppressing this new wave since a cluster of more than 40 cases must have greatly impacted the surrounding area.

In just the space of a day, the number of new cases identified in Fujian has doubled from Monday to Tuesday. The National Health Commission said 59 new locally transmitted cases were reported for Sept. 13, up from 22 infections a day earlier. All of them were in Fujian, a province bordered by Zhejiang to the north and Guangdong to the south.

In just four days, a total of 102 community infections have been reported in three Fujian cities, including Xiamen, a tourist and transport hub with a population of 5 million.

The infections come ahead of the week-long National Day holiday, which starts on Oct. 1, a major tourist season. The last domestic outbreak in late July to August disrupted travel, hitting the tourism, hospitality and transportation sector particularly hard.

China’s air passenger traffic plunged 51.5% in August from a year earlier, data released on Tuesday showed, highlighting the vulnerability of Chinese airlines to repeated outbreaks.

The suspected source of the outbreak is a student’s father who tested positive for the virus on Friday – 38 days after returning from Singapore on Aug. 4. He had served 21 days in quarantine, during which he had taken nine nucleic acid and serologic tests, all of which were negative, said a report in the state-run Global Times newspaper. Notably the CCO suspects that the father’s infection wasn’t related to the other patients who have sprang up in this latest out,  not clear if the student’s father was indeed infected overseas, as such a long incubation period is very unusual.

To try and combat the spread, authorities have closed schools, museums and libraries.

While yesterday we reported that the outbreak had been confined to Fujian, reports on Tuesday say the virus h.

Mp>Some 32 virus cases were identified in Xiamen on Monday, with most of them traced back to Putian. According to the Global Times, the primary symptoms suggest the delta variant is driving infections in the country.

In Xianyou, authorities have placed more than 3,000 students on leave to separate them from their parents head of the county government.

The Fujian outbreak has highlighted more questions about China’s increasing challenge faced by China’s ambitious zero-Covid strategy, raising questions over its sustainability in the long term.

end

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

UK/VACCINE
What are these guys planning; one day after announcing no vaccine passports, the government states that these passports are an integral part of their strategy
(Paul Watson)

UK Government Says Vaccine Passports Integral To COVID Winter Plan Day After They Were Supposedly Scrapped

 
TUESDAY, SEP 14, 2021 – 02:00 AM

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

The UK government has insisted that vaccine passports will remain an integral tool in fighting the spread of COVID just a day after health secretary Sajid Javid asserted that they had been completely scrapped.

Well, that didn’t take long.

During his media rounds yesterday morning, Javid said that vaccine passports represented a “huge intrusion into people’s lives,” adding, “I am pleased to say that we will not be going ahead.”

However, within 24 hours, the government has indicated that the system will in fact form a “first-line defence” against a winter wave of coronavirus.

“No 10 said checks on the vaccine status of people going to nightclubs and other crowded events remained a crucial part of the government’s winter Covid plan due to be unveiled by the prime minister tomorrow,” reports the Times.

It appears as though the only change is that the passports won’t be introduced at the end of this month, appearing instead during early winter when COVID cases will inevitably and conveniently begin to rise again.

Mark Harper, chairman of the Covid Recovery Group, said of vaccine passports: “They shouldn’t be kept in reserve — they are pointless, damaging and discriminatory.”

Trusting government pronouncements on vaccine passports is a fool’s game.

At the end of last year, the British public were assured that they would never come into force, even as the government was paying millions of pounds to private contractors to set up the system.

As we previously highlighted, vaccine passports will put nightclubs out of business because they operate at a net profit margin of 15 per cent, while one third of under 40’s in the UK haven’t had a single dose of the vaccine.

Boris Johnson will also signal that he won’t hesitate to re-introduce mask mandates in winter if cases numbers significantly increase, which they are sure to do given that the UK counts ‘COVID deaths’ as any that occurred within a 28 day COVID diagnosis no matter what the cause of the death.

As we have repeatedly highlighted, vaccine passports represent a digital ID, which represents the implementation of an onerous social credit score system in the west.

 

end
 
EU
 
High prices for electricity/gas will cause hyperinflation and this will be disastrous for the working poor ahead of this winter
(zerohedge)

Hyperinflation In Europe’s Power Markets Is Disastrous For Working-Poor Ahead Of Winter

 
TUESDAY, SEP 14, 2021 – 04:15 AM

European natural gas and electricity prices are unlikely to ease in the coming months ahead of what could be a costly winter season for stressed-out consumers. The price increases for natgas and power are unusual for this time of year, raising concern prices will remain sticky and eat away wages. 

Natgas prices hit a record high last month due to slowing Russian supply causing a storage crunch on the continent. Then the lack of wind-driven electricity production forced European utility companies to fire up natgas turbines to satisfy energy shortfalls. This episode underlines the precarious state of the continent’s energy markets ahead of winter. 

The price shock has been the most evident in the UK as the country learns a valuable lesson about relying on wind farms. Electricity prices have more than doubled in September and were seven times higher than at the same month in 2020. 

Power prices across the continent, from France, the Netherlands, and Germany, were also higher. 

Weather models forecast cool and dry conditions for Europe this winter could strain natgas supplies even further. 

“All our indicators on the weather and the fuel market side are bullish,” said Georgi Slavov, head of fundamental research of broker Marex Spectron.

Bloomberg’s Javier Blas writes, “This is simply incredible: UK day-ahead baseload electricity prices jump to a fresh all-time high of £354 per MWh on N2EX. Intraday prices for peak demand are much, much higher. To put into perspective, that’s 700% higher than the ~£45 average 2010-2020 price.” 

Blas also says: 

He notes commodity inflation has moved into “demand destruction mode — with that, it comes the risk of political intervention (verbal or real) to force prices down. We saw that with China’s statement on oil last week (and multiple times in 2008).” 

Stefan Konstantinov, senior energy economist at data firm ICIS, said surging power prices “took a lot of people by surprise,” and if “this were to happen in winter when we’ve got significantly higher demand, then that presents a real issue for system stability.”

The feedback loop has already affected the broader economy, with European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde recently saying energy markets are a significant driver in higher inflation

Maybe Europe will beg Russia to accelerate the launch of its controversial Nord Stream pipeline; clearly, without it, gas prices would continue surging, further pushing up power prices. 

Europe has been pursuing renewable energy as a means of mitigating “climate change,” but the realization is that when the wind stops blowing, there’s not enough energy. 

This is just more evidence of out-of-control inflation rippling through commodity markets and crushing the working-poor. Europeans are becoming furious and have already protested utility companies. 

end
 
ECB
Dr Lacalle outlines the Eurozone dilemma with all of its debt and no secondary market
(Dr Lacalle)

The Eurozone Is Going Down The Japan Way

 
TUESDAY, SEP 14, 2021 – 03:30 AM

Authored by Daniel Lacalle,

The European Central Bank announced a tapering of the repurchase program on September the 9th. One would imagine that this is a sensible idea given the recent rise in inflation in the eurozone to the highest level in a decade and the allegedly strong recovery of the economy. However, there is a big problem. The announcement is not really tapering, but simply adjusting to a lower net supply of bonds from sovereign issuers. In fact, considering the pace announced by the central bank, the ECB will continue to purchase 100% of all net issuance from sovereigns.

There are several problems in this strategy.

  • The first one is that the ECB is unwillingly acknowledging that there is no real secondary market demand for eurozone countries’ sovereign debt at these yields. One would have to think of twice or three times the current yield for investors to accept many eurozone bonds if the ECB does not repurchase them. This is obviously a dangerous bubble.

  • The second problem is that the ECB acknowledges that monetary policy has gone from being a tool to help implement structural reforms to a tool to avoid them. Even with the strong GDP bounce that the ECB predicts, few governments are willing to reduce spending and curb deficits in a meaningful way. The ECB estimates show that after the massive deficit spending of 2020, eurozone government spending will rise again by 3.4% in 2021 only to fall modestly by 1.2% in 2022. This means that eurozone government spending will consolidate the covid pandemic increase with little improvement in the fiscal position of most countries. Indeed, countries like Spain and Italy have increased the structural deficit.

  • The third problem is that negative rates and high liquidity injections combined with elevated government spending have generated no real multiplier effect in the eurozone. We must remember that the main economies were in stagnation already in the fourth quarter of 2019, before the pandemic and despite large stimulus plans like the Juncker Plan, which mobilized hundreds of billions of euros in investments.

  • The fourth challenge for the ECB is that it acknowledges being trapped by its own policy, it cannot stop it and normalize because governments and markets would suffer, and it cannot keep the current pace because inflation is putting even more pressure on growth.

  • The final challenge for the eurozone and the ECB is that they continue to implement policies that ignore demographics and structural burdens to growth. The eurozone has an aging population and monetary and fiscal policies seem to ignore the evidence of changing consumption patterns when citizens reach a certain age or retire. If we add to demographics a taxation system that increasingly hurts middle classes, businesses, and investment, we face an economy that seems to be following all the wrong policies that Japan implemented at the beginning of the 90s.

As Japan did, the eurozone is betting all on government spending, chains of stimulus packages driven by political directions, and massive debt monetization.

However, the eurozone does not have the disciplined labor force that Japan has nor the elevated levels of corporate and household savings that allow the country to continue in stagnation for decades.

Countries like Italy, Spain, Portugal, or Greece cannot survive stagnation due to elevated levels of unemployment and the small size of the business fabric. Therefore, the ECB seems to ignore the risks of perpetuating the perverse incentives to bloat government spending and debt. All messages concerning structural reforms and real growth initiatives have disappeared in favor of directed stimulus plans that never deliver.  Our duty as economists is to warn of the more than likely scenario of poor recovery, low productivity, and high debt that the eurozone faces. Fiscal multipliers have been negative for too long for us to ignore the negative crowding-out effect of high government spending and the erosion of competitiveness that the economy faces.

end

Natural New/Etha Huff

Daughter of British royal DIES with “severe headache” months after covid vaccine… family in denial over spike proteins building up over time

 
Image: Daughter of British royal DIES with “severe headache” months after covid vaccine… family in denial over spike proteins building up over time
 

(Natural News) The 25-year-old daughter of the late Lord Young of Dartington reportedly died from “covid” not long after getting “vaccinated.”

Gaia Young, as they call her, was rushed to University College London Hospital (UCLH) with a severe headache and acute vomiting on July 20. Just 16 hours later, she was declared to be braindead.

Mainstream media reports claim that Young’s death is “unexplained” since the first post-mortem examination came back “inconclusive.” UCLH, however, has launched an official investigation to seek answers, especially since Young deteriorated very quickly.

According to reports, Young received her second Covid-19 injection back in March. Young’s family, including her half-brother Toby Young, insists that the jab had nothing to do with her death.

“No doubt some people will speculate that her sudden death was a rare side effect of the covid vaccine, but she had her second jab in March so on the face of it that seems unlikely,” Toby insists.

“It’s an unspeakable tragedy for which there’s no apparent explanation. Gaia ate healthily, exercised regularly, did not take drugs and only drank occasionally and in moderation.”

Toby went on to explain that losing a healthy 25-year-old family member “is particularly hard,” but that people should not blame the injection and instead blame “covid.”

“She was a lovely person – kind, funny, clever, creative, loyal, conscientious, endless curious,” Toby added. “She had the world at her feet.”

As people continue to die from vaccines, the establishment continues to blame “covid”

Not a single person in Gaia’s life is entertaining even the mere idea that she could have died because of the injections she took. Her family, her school, the media, and the government are all going with the narrative that Gaia’s mysterious death was just a coincidence.

Either that or Gaia died from “covid.” When all else fails, just blame covid and you have an easy scapegoat when a death defies all logic.

Gaia’s father, by the way, is credited with coining the term “meritocracy.” He played a key role in shaping the post-war welfare state in the U.K., having written the Labour Party’s victorious manifesto for the 1945 general election.

“Our deepest sympathies go to Gaia’s loved ones at this very sad and difficult time,” said a UCLH spokesman following her death. “We are in contact with her family and reviewing the circumstances leading to her death.”

The day she developed her headache, Gaia had reportedly been cycling and enjoying the sunshine. Then, out of nowhere, she became violently ill and had to be rushed to the hospital for treatment.

Gaia was transferred to intensive care and placed on a ventilator. She never regained consciousness after that and quickly passed.

“It is so tragic,” lamented Gaia’s mother, Dorit.

“Gaia was incredibly socially minded and engaged young person. At the moment her death is unexplained and the first post-mortem is inconclusive. It happened so quickly. An investigation has been launched into her care and I hope I get the answers.”

Prior to her death, Gaia had taken an interest in “social justice” causes much like her father did. She spent a lot of her time in “brown” countries where poor people live because this made her feel like she was contributing something good to the world.

“Nobody had donated to the charity from Britain so the chairman sent her a letter in thanks,” Dorit bragged about a $10 donation that Gaia gave to the Skid Row Running Club. “Gaia was so pleased she got that appreciation and recognition.”

More related news about injuries and deaths caused by Fauci Flu shots can be found at ChemicalViolence.com.

end

from Robert…

80% of covid deaths in Scotland are occurring among VACCINATED residents – NaturalNews.com

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

 
 

ISRAELNEWS

https://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/311368

Report: 14 Israelis infected with COVID despite 3rd vaccine dose

9 days after Israel kicked off campaign for third vaccine dose, Health Ministry statistics reveal 2 people hospitalized despite booster shot

 

David Rosenberg , Aug 08 , 2021 7:17 PM
COVID-19 vaccine

 

COVID-19 vaccine

 

iStock
 

More than a dozen Israelis who have been vaccinated three times against SARS-CoV-2 have been diagnosed with the virus in spite of the vaccines, according to a new report Sunday evening.

According to data from Israel’s Health Ministry which was published in a report by Channel 12 Sunday evening, fourteen people who have received a third dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID vaccine were diagnosed with the coronavirus at least seven days after receiving the third dose.

Israel officially kicked off its mass vaccination campaign for the third dose on July 30th, and has vaccinated some 422,000 people with the third dose thus far. The third dose is available to members of high-risk groups, including the elderly.

Of the 14 recipients of the third dose who tested positive for the virus at least seven days after receiving the booster shot, eleven are over the age of 60, with the remaining three being younger people who received the shot because they suffer from compromised immune systems.

Two of the 14 people who were diagnosed with COVID at least a week after receiving the booster shot have been hospitalized as a result of their COVID infections. Sunday’s report did not specify whether the two are in serious condition.

Earlier on Sunday, Prime Minister Naftali Bennett called on Israeli Arabs to get vaccinated against COVID, saying the vaccine is a crucial part of the battle against the Delta Variant.

 

“This epidemic of the Delta variant is flooding the whole world and bringing with it high rates of contagion and increased mortality rates in many countries. The Delta variant is also spreading through Israel, and those most affected are older people – your parents and your grandparents. Therefore, Israel has obtained additional vaccine doses in order to provide our citizens with a third vaccine dose, so that we can protect all those over the age of 60.”

Bennett said that vaccination rates among the Arab sector are “too low.”

end
IRAN/JIHADISTS//USA AFGHANISTA/USA

Obama CIA Director Says Biden Afghanistan Calamity Has “Absolutely Inspired Jihadists All Over The World”

 
TUESDAY, SEP 14, 2021 – 12:40 PM

Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,

Appearing on CBS News Sunday, the former CIA Director under Obama, while Biden was Vice President, admitted that the contemptuous actions of the now president in Afghanistan has injected new inspiration into terrorists all over the globe.

“I think that the Taliban winning the war in Afghanistan, and then the way our exit happened, has absolutely inspired jihadists all over the world,” Michael Morell said on Face The Nation.

He added that the calamitous exit from the country means “there’s a celebration going on.”

“The Taliban is saying, we just didn’t defeat the United States, we defeated NATO. We defeated the world’s greatest military power, ever,” Morell urged.

“I think, not only will the jihadists be inspired, but a lot of them are going to come to Afghanistan to be part of the celebration, to be part of jihadist central,” he continued.

“We are more at risk, without a doubt,” Morell concluded.

Watch:

Morell’s comments come as Biden’s Secretary of State Antony Blinken admitted there is STILL a hostage situation going on with Americans now being held the Mazar-i-Sharif Airport in northern Afghanistan for over ten days:

*  *  *

END

6.Global Issues

CORONAVIRUS UPDATE

An excellent paper on how science has been denied! The author outlines the Biden vaccine mandate!

Tucker/Brownstone.org

Science Denied: The Biden Vaccine Mandate

 
TUESDAY, SEP 14, 2021 – 12:00 AM

Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via Brownstone.org,

President Biden has decided to go hard on the virus. No more Mr. Nice Guy.

Sadly for him, those tiny little pathogens don’t pay taxes, don’t vote, don’t have Social Security numbers, can’t be drafted, and don’t answer phone calls from poll takers, which is to say that he and his agencies cannot really control them. That must be frustrating, poor man. 

Instead his plan is to control what he can control: people, and, most immediately, federal workers and the employees of large regulated companies. For him, the key to crushing the virus is the vaccine. Not enough people are obeying his demand for near-universal vaccination. 

In a maniacal move of wild desperation – or as an excuse to try out the most extreme powers of his office – he is using every weapon that he believes he has to assure compliance with his dream of injecting as many arms as possible. Only then will we crush the virus, all thanks to his leadership, all the complaints about “freedom” be damned – and never mind that the realization of his dream did not work in Israel or the UK. 

What are the immediate problems here? At least five:

1. The Biden mandate pretends that the only immunity is injected, not natural. And so it has been from the beginning of this pandemic, even though all science for at least a year – actually you can say centuries – contradicts that. Indeed, we’ve known about natural immunity since 400 B.C when Thucydides first wrote of the great Athens plague that revealed that “they knew the course of the disease and were themselves free from apprehension.” Biden’s mandate could affect 80 million people but far more than that have likely been exposed and gained robust immunity regardless of vaccination status. 

2. This natural immunity is long-lasting and broad, and we’ve known that since last year when the first studies revealed it. You can say that the addition of a vaccine provides even more but it’s new and untested relative to most drugs approved by regulators, and many people are concerned about possible side effects of this vaccine that was approved much faster than any drug in my lifetime – and there is not one living human being in a position to say with certainty that these skeptics are wrong. 

3. The mandate presumes that everyone is equally susceptible to severe outcomes from getting exposed to the virus, which we’ve known is not true since at least February 2020. In this entire 18-month fiasco, we’ve not seen any serious high-level communication about the huge range of demographic gradients in infection based on both age and overall health. This ignorance is a consequence of poor public-health messaging, and is grossly irresponsible. The aggregated mandate from the Biden administration ignores this completely, as did the models that suggested lockdowns in the event of a virus from the Spring of 2020. 

4. Biden seems still of the belief that vaccines stop infection (he claimed this many times) and spread but we know with certainty that this is not the case, and even the CDC admits it. The best guess at this point is that it can help in preventing hospitalization and death but this experiment is still in its early stages, and the relationship between cause and effect in human affairs is not as easy as throwing around two data sets and saying one caused the other. Most cases in the developed world now are occurring among the vaccinated – and we all know this because we have vaccinated friends who got Covid anyway. Some have died. We are not idiots, contrary to what the Biden administration believes. Nor do any of us have all the knowledge and answers. And it is precisely because science is uncertain that the decisions surrounding it need to be decentralized, depoliticized, and open to correction rather than being imposed by top-down mandates. 

5. Biden’s order flies in the face of basic human freedoms and rights. There is no other way to put it. And it is this fact that is the most prescient for the multitudes who are right now seething in anger that one man who happens to hold power can make health decisions for the whole population regardless of their perfectly rational judgements. When the needle filled with liquid is forced into the arms of people who either have natural immunities or do not fear exposure to the pathogen, it gets personal, and people get really mad, especially after they are still forced into masks and denied other essential rights. 

Truth is that my phone has been blowing up all evening since Biden’s speech. People are demoralized, panicked, furious, and even at the point of losing it completely over this despotic moment in which we are living. Most of us believed that we live in a scientific age in which information would be broadly disseminated to the world and this technology would somehow prevent us as a society from falling prey to charlatans, mob mysticism, and brutal methods of population control, not to mention to the deployment of superstitious talismans and quackery. That turns out not to be true, and this is perhaps the greatest shock of all. 

Scientists worked for many hundreds of years to understand pathogens. They worked to understand their effect on the body, the range of susceptibility to both infection and severe outcomes, the demographics of vulnerability, the means by which we come to be protected from them, and the opportunities and limits available to people to protect themselves and others. After all this, humanity put together institutions that protected human freedom, individual rights, and public health, while preserving peace and prosperity in the best of times. 

In the last 18 months, all that hard work and knowledge seems to have been shredded, replaced by superstition masquerading as some kind of new science of social and pathogenic control. In this year and a half, we’ve observed no clear successes and unrelenting flops. One year ago, humanity had the opportunity to embrace the wisdom of the Great Barrington Declaration to protect the vulnerable while letting society otherwise function. Governments instead chose the path of ignorance and violence. The list is long but it includes: travel restrictions, capacity limits, business closures, school shutdowns, mask mandates, forced human separation (“social distancing”), and now mandates of vaccination that, quite apparently, vast numbers do not want. 

It’s all designed so that governments can prove to the world that they are powerful enough, smart enough, educated enough to outsmart and manage any living organism, even an invisible one that has been part of the human experience since humans had experiences. In this, they have completely failed – in more ways than it is possible to count. 

We keep thinking that surely, surely, we will come to the end of this madness. I personally believed it would end the second week of March 2020. Instead, it gets worse and worse, the illusion of control having seized the barely functioning brains of the ruling classes of the world’s richest nations. If this doesn’t prove the astonishing stupidity of the world’s most powerful and educated, nothing else in history does. 

The great myth that has clouded our vision and our expectations has been that we as a people had progressed beyond the kind of statist shibboleths and fanatic brutality that define our age. The truth is that we are not. 

This very day, a Karen attacked me for being maskless. I looked at her and thought only of the poor people in Colonial America who dared being caught wearing buckled shoes and therefore running afoul of the sumptuary laws, or of the religious minorities in Medieval Europe who were scapegoated for every plague (look up the origins of the the phrase “poisoning the well”), or the demonization of rebels in the ancient Roman empire or the disapprobation of heretics in the hundreds of years that followed the fall of Rome.

It is a mark of a primitive society to attribute to political compliance or noncompliance what rational science shows is a feature of the natural world. Why? Ignorance, maybe. Power ambitions, more likely. Scapegoating is apparently an eternal feature of the human experience. Governments seem particularly good at it, even when it is less believable than ever.

END

WOW: Facebook Post from TV Station Accidentally Reveals More People are Dying from the Vaccine than the Media is Reporting

FROM MY SON:
 
 
 
The word is getting out, not just about how dangerous the “vaccine” is, but how complicit the media is in covering it up.

 

https://thedcpatriot.com/facebook-post-accidentally-reveals-more-people-are-being-killed-by-the-vaccine-than-the-media-is-letting-on/

A local ABC news station accidentally opened up Pandora’s Box with a recent and now viral Facebook post. Currently boasting 64k+ shares, the post asked for stories about people that lost a loved one because they *weren’t* vaccinated….what ended up happening was a massive deluge of comments from people that had lost loved ones right after the vaccine instead. The number of actual deaths and side effects from the vaccine is something many suspect the media, Big Pharma, this illegitimate administration, and the CDC are personally covering up. Apparently the CDC doesn’t consider anyone that dies within 2 weeks of the vaccine as an actual “vaccination death” and of this post is as telling as it seems to be…..a LOT more people are dying from this vaccine than anything else. The vaccine clearly doesn’t stop people from getting covid, and it’s got a lot of people wondering why they’re pushing it so hard at all. I screenshot as many comments as I could as Facebook is already targeting the post and asking people if they “really” want to share it:
 
END
 
From my son:
this should tell you everything!!

Deaths in Israel have doubled from a year ago

 
 
 
 
The vaccine is killing people all over the place – and you can bet that the deaths are massively undercounted, because hospitals are desperately trying to cover up the truth.

 

This winter is going to be terrible once vaccinated health care workers go offline because they are sick, dead, or retired.

J Chamie (@jjchamie) Tweeted:
🇮🇱 COVID-19 in Israel

Deaths from COVID are double what they were a year ago.

How is that possible with its high vaccination rate, more than 30% with boosters and 12% with natural immunity?

It is time to accept reality and change strategy

end
From Chris Powell:
Michael Every on the most important stories of the day.
Michael Every…

END

7. OIL ISSUES

This should help drive down the price of oil; China to sell 7.38 million barrels of crude from the state reserve

(zerohedge)

China To Sell 7.38 Million Barrels Of Crude From State Reserve

 
TUESDAY, SEP 14, 2021 – 08:30 AM

As previewed previously, moments ago – as expected – China’s National Food and Strategic Reserves Administration said in a statement that it would auction 7.38 million barrels of oil from state reserve on September 24.  The news led to a modest dip in oil which however was followed by an immediate bounce.

As Rabobank’s Ryan Fitzmaurice explained over the weekend, China, the world’s biggest oil importer, attempted to pressure oil prices lower this week by announcing a release of crude oil from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). The move signalled political vulnerability to rising commodity price inflation, but even more so, it is not enough physical supply to move the dial.

Some more observations from the Rabo energy analyst:

The oil market was strong in the early part of the week, but came under selling pressure on Thursday as news of China releasing oil from its strategic reserve (SPR) hit the wires. Ironically, the move comes on the heels of President Biden indicating he was also considering releasing crude oil from the US strategic reserve in the wake of Hurricane Ida in addition to pleading with OPEC+ to pump more oil in the weeks before the storm.

In the end, a US release made no sense as a significant portion of refining capacity was also knocked offline along with crude production. Nonetheless, the move by China, the world’s biggest crude oil and commodity importer, was no doubt designed to ease upward price pressures on rising oil import costs, however, it is unlikely to have the desired effect, as we see it.

For starters, it signals political vulnerability to commodity inflation just as Biden’s earlier plea to OPEC+ did, and even more so, it is not enough physical supply to move the dial and only partially offsets the drop in US production since the storm hit. Initial reports are suggesting that about 22mb will be released which is roughly two days’ worth of oil imports for China or just a couple hours’ worth of daily global demand. On top of that, the release reduces the amount of oil available for a true supply-side emergency and, as such, will have to be refilled in the not too distant future and potentially at higher prices.

Finally, large systematic traders have begun rebuilding “long” oil positions as can be seen in the latest market positioning and open interest data and these funds only react to quantitative signals for the most part, so the SPR release is unlikely to slow their buying programs.

Looking forward

Looking forward, we see China’s recent attempt at pressuring oil prices lower as futile and likely to be overwhelmed by financial futures flows given the bullish quantitative market signals and global inflation risks at play. Furthermore, the recent increases in aggregate futures open interest data is encouraging and signals to us that the herd movement of systematic funds is already underway, That being said, we see scope for significantly more speculative buying to occur in the months ahead given the current underinvestment in oil futures, especially in light of all the money that has been pumped into financial markets over the past 18 months. As such, we see more upside risks to oil prices than downside, particularly in the deferred contracts as inflation takes hold.

 

end

8 EMERGING MARKET& AUSTRALIA ISSUES

Australia////COVID/VACCINES

ZIMBABWE

Zimbabwe begins 12 hour power cuts amid a shortage of electricity

(zerohedge)

‘You Can’t Print Electricity’ – Zimbabwe Begins Daily 12-Hour Power Cuts Amid Shortage

 
MONDAY, SEP 13, 2021 – 10:20 PM

Zimbabwe finds itself in dire economic straits. Again. 

The South African nation, which has a knack for money printing, began rationing power Sunday. With all the money printing, one would expect the country could afford additional power generation plants or at least import energy while conducting maintenance work at its largest power stations. 

But that’s not the case whatsoever. Zimbabwe Electricity Transmission and Distribution Co. (ZETDC) has cut power to customers for 12 hours per day during upgrades at Zimbabwe Power Company Hwange Power Station and Kariba Hydro Power Station. 

ZETDC told Bloomberg that it “is experiencing a power shortfall due to generation” and “limited imports.” 

The power company conducted load shedding to “balance the power supply available and the connected load.” This involves widespread cuts to industrial and agricultural areas. Hospitals, water, sewer installations, and oxygen-producing plants are going to be spared during the blackouts. 

Reports indicate communication disruptions could be seen. Traffic disruptions are expected. Trains might experience delays. And there’s a severe risk that ATMs and petrol stations could go dark. 

With the economy in shambles, the Zimbabwe government is learning the hard way it simply can’t print electricity. 

Meanwhile, as the country struggles with its usual hyperinflation demons, its finance minister, Mthuli Ncube, urged citizens to “invest in understanding emerging innovations like bitcoin,” which ironically will be impossible to mine given the power outages” 

 

END

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings TUESDAY  morning 7:30 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1809 UP .0005 /EUROPE BOURSES /ALL RED

USA/ YEN 110.12  UP  0.129 /NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.3854  UP   0.0018  

 

USA/CAN 1.2653  UP .0005  (  CDN DOLLAR DOWN 5 BASIS PTS )

 

Early TUESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro IS UP BY 5 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.1898 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 52.77 PTS OR 1.42%

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 311.58 PTS OR 1.21%

 

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.18% // EUROPEAN BOURSES OPENED ALL RED 

 

Trading from Europe and ASIA

EUROPEAN BOURSES CLOSED ALL RED

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG  CLOSED DOWN 311.58    PTS OR 1.21% 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 52.77  PTS OR 1.42%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP  0.18%

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 222.73 pts or 0.73% 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1782.65

silver:$23.83-

Early TUESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yr: 1.348% !!! UP 2 IN POINTS from MONDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

The 30 yr bond yield 1.925 UP 2  IN BASIS POINTS from MONDAY night.

USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 92.61 DOWN 7  CENT(S) from MONDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers TUESDAY MORNING

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And now your closing  TUESDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.21%  DOWN 2  in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.045% DOWN 1/10   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.31%//  DOWN 2  in basis points yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:  0.65  DOWN 4   points in basis points yield from yesterday./

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 34 points higher than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES TO –.337% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 0.99% AND NOW ABOVE   THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR  TUESDAY

Closing currency crosses for TUESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1826  UP    0.0017 or 02 basis points

USA/Japan: 109.69  DOWN .304 OR YEN UP 31  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3856 UP .0017 UP 17   BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar UP 30 basis points to 1.2659

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The USA/Yuan,  CNY: closed    ON SHORE  (CLOSED UP).. 6.4394 

 

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN CLOSED (UP)..6.4331

TURKISH LIRA:  8.44  EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.045%

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 4 IN basis points from MONDAY at 1.285 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 1.860 DOWN 5 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 92.49 DOWN 9  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for TUESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 34.37 PTS OR 0.49% 

 

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 21.57 PTS OR 0.14% 

 

Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 23.96  PTS OR  0.36% 

 

Spain IBEX CLOSED  DOWN 36.10  PTS OR  0.41%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 101.34 PTS OR 0.39% 

 

WTI Oil price; 70.66 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 73.76 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE RISES:    72.77  THE CROSS HIGHER BY 0.10 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE LOWER BY 10 BASIS PTS)

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES  TO –.337 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM : 70.34//

BRENT :  73.55

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 1.286.. DOWN 4 basis points…

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 1.848  DOWN 6  basis points..

EURO/USA 1.1806 down 0.0004   ( 4 BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:109.65 DOWN .345 ( YEN UP 35 BASIS POINTS/..

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 92.64 DOWN 3  cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA: 1.3806 DOWN .0031  

the Turkish lira close: 8.45  DOWN 2 BASIS PTS

the Russian rouble 72.95  DOWN   .28 Roubles against the uSA dollar. (DOWN 28 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.2691 UP 42 BASIS pts

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.337%

The Dow closed DOWN 291.99 POINTS OR 0.84%

NASDAQ closed DOWN 67.82 POINTS OR 0.45%

VOLATILITY INDEX:  19,94 CLOSED UP 0.57

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 0.116

%//libor dropping like a stone

USA trading day in Graph Form

Bonds, Bullion, & Bitcoin Jump As Stocks Pump’n’Dump After CPI

 
TUESDAY, SEP 14, 2021 – 04:00 PM

A slightly weaker than expected CPI print prompted kneejerk panic-buying by the algos as it may delay The Fed’s taper. However, record-er and record-er highs in stocks is just as likely to trigger financial stability anxiety among some Fed members and as the US cash market opened, sellers appeared and erased all the un-taper gains. Small Caps were worst on the day, Nasdaq the least bad…

Today was the worst for Small Caps and The Dow since mid-July

Stocks are red for the month of September…

A “down” day… umm! (S&P 6th down day of last 7)

The Dow broke below its 100DMA…

The S&P tested down to its 50DMA once again – will this be a dip to buy, or is September’s back-half seasonality about to bite?

SpotGamma warned that 4440 was an important line in the sand today from an options/gamma persective…

Small Caps broke down below the 100DMA, heading to 200DMA support…

Apple investors seemed unimpressed by the new bright shiny objects… New iPad (same as the old one except faster, oh and smaller iPad mini), New Apple Watch (bigger display), Guided Meditation (seriously), and a new iPhone 13 (that looks exactly like all the other iPhones)

Financials underperformed today as yields tumbled and banks made headlines on trading volume outlook reductions and “normalization”. Healthcare was best today, managing to hold unchanged…

Source: Bloomberg

Defensive and Cyclical stocks both fell together today, no rotational flows…

Source: Bloomberg

The stalemate between recovery and lockdown stocks continues…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields were down notably across the board today, all bond bid aggressively from the CPI print…

Source: Bloomberg

30Y Yield tumbled to 6-week lows…

Source: Bloomberg

10Y Yield fell back below its 50DMA…

Source: Bloomberg

Debt Ceiling Anxiety continues to rise as McConnell said “Republicans are united in opposition to raising the debt ceiling”…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar dived on the CPI miss, bounced back, scrambling to recover its losses as stocks legged down…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin surged back above yesterday’s WMT/LTC spike highs…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin is also on the verge of a ‘golden cross’ of its 50DMA above its 200DMA (for the first time since May 2020)…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold spiked back above $1800 today…

A choppy day left oil prices unchanged ahead of tonight’s API data…

Finally, it feels like we are getting close… Nasdaq 100 (Growth) is back at record highs relative to The Dow (Quality)…

Source: Bloomberg

And no, investors aren’t hedged…

end

MORNING TRADING

Stocks & Gold Spike After CPI Miss, Dollar Nosedives

 
TUESDAY, SEP 14, 2021 – 09:02 AM

The first miss for CPI since October has sparked some brief ‘ding-dong-the-taper-is-dead’ euphoria in stocks this morning…

And sent the dollar down hard…

Which in turn sparked a wave of buying on gold, pushing futures back above $1800….

And while stocks are surging, so are bonds with 10Y Yields now down for the day

Is The Fed going to taper because of inflation – which it always viewed as transitory – or is an ever higher stock market’s fragility be the trigger?

Trade accordingly.

end

ii)  USA///INFLATION WATCH

One of the largest USA supermarket chains warns inflation is about to impact more Americans.

(Jack Philips/EpochTimes)

One Of The Largest US Supermarket Chains Warns Inflation Is About To Impact More Americans

 
MONDAY, SEP 13, 2021 – 09:20 PM

By Jack Phillips of Epoch Times,

An executive of Kroger, one of the largest supermarket chains in the United States, warned grocery prices are about to become even higher this year as inflation sets in.

Inflation is running hotter than previously anticipated, and prices are slated to rise an additional 2 to 3 percent over the second half of 2021, Kroger CFO Gary Millerchip said during a call with reporters.

Kroger will be “passing along higher cost to the customer where it makes sense to do so,” he said on Sept. 10.

The comment comes as the price for beef, poultry, and pork have risen at grocery stores in recent months, leading White House officials to blame meat processing companies.

“Just four large conglomerates control the majority of the market for each of these three products [beef, pork and poultry], and the data show that these companies have been raising prices while generating record profits during the pandemic,” said National Economic Council Director Brian Deese at a press briefing on Sept. 8.

“Those companies have seen record or near-record profits in the first half of this year,” Deese said, taking aim at JBS, Tyson Foods, Cargill Meat Solutions Corp., and the National Beef Packing Company. “And that has coincided with a period where we’ve seen disproportionate increase in prices in those segments.”

Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack claimed that some food companies may be price-gouging, although he noted that labor and transportation costs have risen since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.

“Our job is to make sure that that farmer gets a fair price and that the producer … when I go to the grocery store, and I’m in the checkout line, I’m paying a fair price,” Vilsack said.

Neither official signaled that inflation may be the cause despite the producer price index increasing by 0.7 percent in August 2021 over the previous month. Final demand prices have also risen 8.3 percent from a year ago, which is the biggest increase since 2010, according to a Department of Labor report issued on Sept. 10.

Other than Kroger’s warning, food giant Nestle’s Chief Financial Officer, Francois-Xavier Roger, acknowledged a higher input cost inflation in 2022 than this year.

“If we talk of 2022, it is likely that input cost inflation will be higher next year than this year,” Roger said at a Barclays consumer staples conference, reported the Reuters news agency. 

“Our strategy is to offset anything we receive through pricing. The idea is to pass it on to the trade and to consumers whenever we receive it,” he said.

Earlier this year, CEO of supermarket chain Albertsons, Vivek Sankaran, said that regarding inflation, “It could go a little bit higher, but … we have a strong consumer” base in the United States.

end

USA ECONOMIC DATA

US Consumer Prices Miss Expectations For First Time Since October

TUESDAY, SEP 14, 2021 – 08:37 AM

As anxiety over the timing of the taper (not the if but the when) rise, all eyes are anchored on this morning’s CPI (which was expected to rise MoM again but drop marginally on a YoY basis). Both headline (+0.3% MoM vs +0.4% MoM exp) and core (+0.1% MoM vs +0.3% MoM exp) CPI printed below expectations but on a YoY basis headline CPI rose 5.3% – as expected.

Source: Bloomberg

Investors Have Given Up on a V-Shaped Recovery, BNY’s Young Cautions

That is the 15th straight monthly rise in consumer prices and the fourth straight month above 5% on a YoY basis. On a side note, this is the first time MoM CPI printed below expectations since November 2020.

Core CPI slowed from +4.3% YoY to +4.0% YoY (well below the +4.2% YoY exp)…

Source: Bloomberg

Is this merely the Delta variant’s impact creating an illusion of ‘transitory’?

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.1 percent in August. Indexes that increased over the month include the index for household furnishings and operations, which increased 1.3 percent as the indexes for furniture and bedding and for appliances rose. The shelter index increased in August, rising 0.2 percent. The indexes for rent and owners’ equivalent rent both rose 0.3 percent over the month, while the index for lodging away from home declined 2.9 percent. 

The index for new vehicles continued to rise in August, increasing 1.2 percent after rising 1.7 percent in July. The recreation index rose 0.5 percent in August after increasing 0.6 percent the prior month. The index for medical care rose 0.2 percent over the month; its component indexes were mixed. The hospital services index rose 0.9 percent over the month, while the physicians’ services index was unchanged and the prescription drugs index declined 0.4 percent. The indexes for personal care, for communication, and for apparel all increased in August.

Several indexes declined in August. 

The index for airline fares fell sharply, decreasing 9.1 percent over the month. The index for used cars and trucks declined 1.5 percent in August, ending a series of five consecutive monthly increases. The index for motor vehicle insurance fell 2.8 percent in August, the same decline as in July

Of course, the suppression of (not transitory) CPI OER remains key to pretending this is all under control…

As we noted earlier, this reinforces an issue that we have been flagging for a couple of months: while the debate around inflation seems to be focused on when and how quickly “transitory” factors will normalize, “persistent” inflation has steadily moved up to a historically elevated rate.

end

Seems that the transitory inflation meme is waning and real inflation is escalating

(zerohedge)

“Transitory” Inflation Cooling As “Sticky” Heats Up: Here Is The Heatmap From Today’s CPI Report

 
TUESDAY, SEP 14, 2021 – 10:55 AM

Markets breathed a sigh of relief today when the latest CPI print came in weaker than expected, missing consensus expectations for the first time since October, and prompting economists from Pantheon Macro to declare that “in one line: The surge is over.” We doubt it, but first here is the data.

Core CPI inched up 0.1% (0.10% unrounded) mom in August, marking the softest sequential gain since February. This was below consensus expectations and led to the % yoy rate moderating to a still elevated 4.0% yoy clip, from 4.3% previously. Headline CPI rose 0.3% (0.27% unrounded) mom, boosted by a 2.0% surge in energy prices and solid 0.4% rise in food. Headline % yoy edged down to 5.3% yoy from 5.4%.

The winds of transitory inflation became crossed this month:

  • On one hand, used car prices started to see a negative payback after the record smashing rally over the past year, declining 1.5% mom. The timing is consistent with wholesale used car prices, which began to turn lower in June and are now down 4.2% from the peak through August. Reopening pressures also saw a sharp reversal with lodging prices plunging 2.9% mom and airline fares collapsing 9.1% mom. The broader transportation services sector also fell 2.3% mom, pulled down further by a 2.8% drop in motor vehicle insurance (which reflects seasonal factors that will likely bounce by +2.0% mom in September) and an 8.5% collapse in car & truck rental prices. Together, these components sliced 0.26% from core % mom.

  • On the other hand, there were signs of continued shortage related pressures as price gains were seen across commodity items. Both new car prices and household furnishings & supplies jumped 1.2% mom in August, recreation commodities soared 1.0% mom, apparel and other goods both rose 0.4% mom, and alcohol rose 0.3% mom. These categories added 0.16% to core, meaning net transitory disinflation this month.

Yet despite the softer core reading, there was continued pressure from a persistent inflation perspective. Both OER and rent of primary residence rose 0.3% mom, the latter improving from its recent 0.2% trend and catching up to the former. If 3rd party subscription-based sources like Zillow, Apartment List, CoreLogic and YardiMatrix are any indication, OER is set to soar in the coming months.

Medical care services also held in at 0.3% mom. There was also broad price pressures across other major services, with labor constraints and resilient wages potentially playing a role.

With CPI and PPI data feeding into PCE inflation, the Fed’s preferred inflation metric, BofA estimates a solid August core PCE of 0.3% (0.34% unrounded) mom, which would keep the % yoy rate at 3.6% (3.65% unrounded). Both % mom and % yoy have risk of rounding up. The PPI data point to better autos and transportation prices within core PCE, versus core CPI, and strong food services also feeds into core PCE.

The market response to the fading of transitory readings at a faster pace than priced-in, is consistent with what we would expect. Inflation breakevens declined across the curve with moves concentrated in the front-end of the curve while real rates rose. Market measures of forward inflation, like 5y5y breakevens were little changed as transitory inflation should have little impact on longer term inflation expectations.

A heatmapped summary of the data looks like this, first on a M/M basis…

… and here is the Y/Y.

1,8872

IMPORTANT USA//VACCINE

Nearly half of all uSA hospitalization cases have been mild or asymptomatic

(zerohedge)

Narrative Nuked: Nearly Half Of ‘COVID Hospitalizations’ This Year Have Been Mild Or Asymptomatic Cases

 
TUESDAY, SEP 14, 2021 – 09:15 AM

A brand new study is calling into question how reliable and meaningful of a number of “patients hospitalized with Covid-19” in the U.S. is. 

Covid hospitalizations – the most common metric heard when discussing the seriousness of the pandemic – may not be nearly as meaningful of a number as many once thought. And don’t take it from us: The Atlantic published a stunning piece on Tuesday citing a new study that suggests “almost half of those hospitalized with COVID-19 have mild or asymptomatic cases”.

The Atlantic had formerly called Covid hospitalizations “the most reliable pandemic number,” last winter. Now, after a nationwide study of hospitalization records was release, the publication is walking back its fervor on that statement. 

Researchers from Harvard Medical School, Tufts Medical Center, and the Veterans Affairs Healthcare System took on the task of trying to figure out how serious Covid cases were in those hospitalized, and how many people counted as Covid hospitalizations were actually in the hospital for Covid, versus getting a Covid test after being admitted for something else. 

The study “analyzed the electronic records for nearly 50,000 COVID hospital admissions at the more than 100 VA hospitals across the country,” The Atlantic wrote. It “checked to see whether each patient required supplemental oxygen or had a blood oxygen level below 94 percent” in order to try and determine if cases met the NIH’s threshold for “severe COVID”. 

What the study found was that from March 2020 to January 2021, 36% of Covid cases in the hospital were mild or asymptomatic. From January 2021 to June 2021, during the Delta variant’s spread, that number rose all the way to 48%. For vaccinated hospital patients, the number rose to a stunning 57%. 

As The Atlantic put it in their own words: “The study suggests that roughly half of all the hospitalized patients showing up on COVID-data dashboards in 2021 may have been admitted for another reason entirely, or had only a mild presentation of disease.”

The limitations of the study obviously included the fact that the VA isn’t representative of the total U.S. population:

Among the limitations of the study is that patients in the VA system are not representative of the U.S. population as a whole, as they include few women and no children. (Still, the new findings echo those from the two pediatric-admissions studies.) Also, like many medical centers, the VA has a policy to test every inpatient for COVID, but this is not a universal practice. Lastly, most of the data—even from the patients admitted in 2021—derive from the phase of the pandemic before Delta became widespread, and it’s possible that the ratios have changed in recent months. The study did run through June 30, however, when the Delta wave was about to break, and it did not find that the proportion of patients with moderate to severe respiratory distress was trending upward at the end of the observation period.

Graham Snyder, the medical director of infection prevention and hospital epidemiology at the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center, says the study buries the lede of how effective the vaccine is: “It’s underreported how well the vaccine makes your life better, how much less sick you are likely to be, and less sick even if hospitalized. That’s the gem in this study.”

Daniel Griffin, an infectious-disease specialist at Columbia University, concurred: “People ask me, ‘Why am I getting vaccinated if I just end up in the hospital anyway?’ But I say, ‘You’ll end up leaving the hospital.’” 

“We should refine the definition of hospitalization,” said Shira Doron, an infectious-disease physician and hospital epidemiologist at Tufts Medical Center and co-author of the study. “Those patients who are there with rather than from COVID don’t belong in the metric.”

What does the study as a whole conclude? Again, in the words of The Atlantic: “…the study also demonstrates that hospitalization rates for COVID, as cited by journalists and policy makers, can be misleading, if not considered carefully

END

Same story as above from the Atlantic

Our Most Reliable Pandemic Number Is Losing Meaning

A new study suggests that almost half of those hospitalized with COVID-19 have mild or asymptomatic cases.

A photo of a hospital bed with a graph superimposed, and a red line trending upwards
Justin Paget / Getty; The Atlantic

 

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At least 12,000 Americans have already died from COVID-19 this month, as the country inches through its latest surge in cases. But another worrying statistic is often cited to depict the dangers of this moment: The number of patients hospitalized with COVID-19 in the United States right now is as high as it has been since the beginning of February. It’s even worse in certain places: Some states, including Arkansas and Oregon, recently saw their COVID hospitalizations rise to higher levels than at any prior stage of the pandemic. But how much do those latter figures really tell us?

From the start, COVID hospitalizations have served as a vital metric for tracking the risks posed by the disease. Last winter, this magazine described it as “the most reliable pandemic number,” while Vox quoted the cardiologist Eric Topol as saying that it’s “the best indicator of where we are.” On the one hand, death counts offer finality, but they’re a lagging signal and don’t account for people who suffered from significant illness but survived. Case counts, on the other hand, depend on which and how many people happen to get tested. Presumably, hospitalization numbers provide a more stable and reliable gauge of the pandemic’s true toll, in terms of severe disease. But a new, nationwide study of hospitalization records, released as a preprint today (and not yet formally peer reviewed), suggests that the meaning of this gauge can easily be misinterpreted—and that it has been shifting over time.

If you want to make sense of the number of COVID hospitalizations at any given time, you need to know how sick each patient actually is. Until now, that’s been almost impossible to suss out. The federal government requires hospitals to report every patient who tests positive for COVID, yet the overall tallies of COVID hospitalizations, made available on various state and federal dashboards and widely reported on by the media, do not differentiate based on severity of illness. Some patients need extensive medical intervention, such as getting intubated. Others require supplemental oxygen or administration of the steroid dexamethasone. But there are many COVID patients in the hospital with fairly mild symptoms, too, who have been admitted for further observation on account of their comorbidities, or because they reported feeling short of breath. Another portion of the patients in this tally are in the hospital for something unrelated to COVID, and discovered that they were infected only because they were tested upon admission. How many patients fall into each category has been a topic of much speculation. In August, researchers from Harvard Medical School, Tufts Medical Center, and the Veterans Affairs Healthcare System decided to find out.

Researchers have tried to get at similar questions before. For two separate studies published in May, doctors in California read through several hundred charts of pediatric patients, one by one, to figure out why, exactly, each COVID-positive child had been admitted to the hospital. Did they need treatment for COVID, or was there some other reason for admission, like cancer treatment or a psychiatric episode, and the COVID diagnosis was merely incidental? According to the researchers, 40 to 45 percent of the hospitalizations that they examined were for patients in the latter group.

The authors of the paper out this week took a different tack to answer a similar question, this time for adults. Instead of meticulously looking at why a few hundred patients were admitted to a pair of hospitals, they analyzed the electronic records for nearly 50,000 COVID hospital admissions at the more than 100 VA hospitals across the country. Then they checked to see whether each patient required supplemental oxygen or had a blood oxygen level below 94 percent. (The latter criterion is based on the National Institutes of Health definition of “severe COVID.”) If either of these conditions was met, the authors classified that patient as having moderate to severe disease; otherwise, the case was considered mild or asymptomatic.

The study found that from March 2020 through early January 2021—before vaccination was widespread, and before the Delta variant had arrived—the proportion of patients with mild or asymptomatic disease was 36 percent. From mid-January through the end of June 2021, however, that number rose to 48 percent. In other words, the study suggests that roughly half of all the hospitalized patients showing up on COVID-data dashboards in 2021 may have been admitted for another reason entirely, or had only a mild presentation of disease.

This increase was even bigger for vaccinated hospital patients, of whom 57 percent had mild or asymptomatic disease. But unvaccinated patients have also been showing up with less severe symptoms, on average, than earlier in the pandemic: The study found that 45 percent of their cases were mild or asymptomatic since January 21. According to Shira Doron, an infectious-disease physician and hospital epidemiologist at Tufts Medical Center, in Boston, and one of the study’s co-authors, the latter finding may be explained by the fact that unvaccinated patients in the vaccine era tend to be a younger cohort who are less vulnerable to COVID and may be more likely to have been infected in the past.

Among the limitations of the study is that patients in the VA system are not representative of the U.S. population as a whole, as they include few women and no children. (Still, the new findings echo those from the two pediatric-admissions studies.) Also, like many medical centers, the VA has a policy to test every inpatient for COVID, but this is not a universal practice. Lastly, most of the data—even from the patients admitted in 2021—derive from the phase of the pandemic before Delta became widespread, and it’s possible that the ratios have changed in recent months. The study did run through June 30, however, when the Delta wave was about to break, and it did not find that the proportion of patients with moderate to severe respiratory distress was trending upward at the end of the observation period.

The idea behind the study and what it investigates is important, says Graham Snyder, the medical director of infection prevention and hospital epidemiology at the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center, though he told me that it would benefit from a little more detail and nuance beyond oxygenation status. But Daniel Griffin, an infectious-disease specialist at Columbia University, told me that using other metrics for severity of illness, such as intensive-care admissions, presents different limitations. For one thing, different hospitals use different criteria for admitting patients to the ICU.

One of the important implications of the study, these experts say, is that the introduction of vaccines strongly correlates with a greater share of COVID hospital patients having mild or asymptomatic disease. “It’s underreported how well the vaccine makes your life better, how much less sick you are likely to be, and less sick even if hospitalized,” Snyder said. “That’s the gem in this study.”

“People ask me, ‘Why am I getting vaccinated if I just end up in the hospital anyway?’” Griffin said. “But I say, ‘You’ll end up leaving the hospital.’” He explained that some COVID patients are in for “soft” hospitalizations, where they need only minimal treatment and leave relatively quickly; others may be on the antiviral drug remdesivir for five days, or with a tube down their throat. One of the values of this study, he said, is that it helps the public understand this distinction—and the fact that not all COVID hospitalizations are the same.

But the study also demonstrates that hospitalization rates for COVID, as cited by journalists and policy makers, can be misleading, if not considered carefully. Clearly many patients right now are seriously ill. We also know that overcrowding of hospitals by COVID patients with even mild illness can have negative implications for patients in need of other care. At the same time, this study suggests that COVID hospitalization tallies can’t be taken as a simple measure of the prevalence of severe or even moderate disease, because they might inflate the true numbers by a factor of two. “As we look to shift from cases to hospitalizations as a metric to drive policy and assess level of risk to a community or state or country,” Doron told me, referring to decisions about school closures, business restrictions, mask requirements, and so on, “we should refine the definition of hospitalization. Those patients who are there with rather than from COVID don’t belong in the metric.”

 

The Atlantic’s COVID-19 coverage is supported by grants from the Chan Zuckerberg Initiative and the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation.

 
 
END
 
POPULIST PRESS…

Federal Judge Just Blocked Vax Mandate…FIRST DOMINO…

A federal judge on Tuesday granted an emergency injunction blocking the state of New York from enforcing a new CCP (Chinese Communist Party) virus vaccine mandate for healthcare workers.

 

Seventeen medical health professionals had asked the court to enjoin enforcement of New York’s mandate that then-Gov. Andrew Cuomo announced on Aug. 16. The mandate required staff at hospitals and long-term care facilities such as nursing homes, adult care facilities, and other congregate care settings, be vaccinated for COVID-19 to continue to be employed.

 

The plaintiffs, including doctors, nurses, a medical technician, and a physician’s liaison, were facing termination, loss of hospital admitting privileges, and the destruction of their careers unless they consent to be vaccinated with vaccines in contradiction of their religious beliefs, the lawsuit argued.

Their religious beliefs compelled the plaintiffs “to refuse vaccination with the available COVID-19 vaccines, all of which employ aborted fetus cell lines in their testing, development, or production,” according to court documents. 

END

 

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

 

iv) Swamp commentaries/

Biden Allies Sour On Taxing Rich As House Dems Eye SALT Cap Handout

 
TUESDAY, SEP 14, 2021 – 12:20 PM

As progressive lawmakers push President Biden to jack taxes on the rich, some of his top Democratic allies have begun to push back.

To wit, the House Ways and Means Committee has scaled back ‘some of the most ambitious elements’ of the Biden administration’s economic blueprint ahead of a Tuesday vote, according to Bloomberg, adding that the changes “reflect the political reality of a Senate that requires moderate Democrats to vote en masse for the final package, given the razor thin margins of the party’s control of the chamber.”

Biden’s move to tax rich families on inherited assets at the time of transfer — ending the so-called step-up in basis measure — is absent from the House plan unveiled Monday. His top capital gains tax rate of 39.6% gets weakened to 25%. There is a 3% surtax on incomes exceeding $5 million, but the principle of bringing levies on investments more into line with wage-earners’ incomes is eroded.

While Senate Finance Committee Chairman Ron Wyden hinted at addressing step-up in basis, such a gesture faces opposition from moderate Democrats in the upper chamber. Farm-state lawmakers have voiced particular concern about doing away with tax-free transfers of inherited assets, even though family farms were specifically marked out as an exception by Biden. -Bloomberg

“The biggest area where it falls short compared to Biden is changing the capital gains tax base, which is key to making sure billionaires pay taxes on those gains and making sure those gains don’t go un-taxed entirely,” said former Obama tax policy adviser, Seth Hanlon. “There is still this hole in the tax code that allows wealthy people to avoid taxes on their gains entirely.”

Biden’s so-called ‘Build Back Better’ plan was launched in part to enact his promise to roll back Trump tax cuts from 2017, which preceded record-breaking economic growth and unemployment in the American economy, particularly among minorities.

Progressives, however, say the tax rollbacks don’t go far enough.

Opposition to the tax hikes is strong among Democrats in the farming community – which is currently exempt from taxation for farms passed down to heirs, and only taxes gains when a property is sold or stops being operated by the family.

Even though Biden’s plan to eliminate step-up in basis included exemptions, opposition from groups including the National Corn Growers Association has been vocal. The administration’s package exempted from taxation any family business or farm passed down to heirs and would tax the increase in the value of the business or property only when it is sold, or stops being run by the family. Biden’s plan also exempts the first $2.5 million in gains from family farms from taxation.

One outside coalition, run by former Heidi Heitkamp, a former Democrat senator from North Dakota, argues that the proposed tax changes would still hit ordinary Americans like farmers or those who run smaller family businesses. She said the Biden proposal has generated deep skepticism among farm owners and rural business owners who fear the provision would erode land values or that the exemptions could later be weakened.

“When you think about this in the long run, is the revenue that would be raised commensurate with the political liability you’re taking on?” Heitkamp said in an interview. “To think there is no political liability, that may be true in downtown Queens, but it’s not true in states like North Dakota, South Dakota, Montana, in rural districts, in swing districts.” -Bloomberg

Recall that the Democrats’ entire $3.5 trillion economic blueprint is doomed if they can’t convince moderate Democrats – such as Sen. Joe Manchin (WV) to sign off.

SALT handout

While the Biden administration continues to advertise their tax plans as an assault on the rich, and only the rich, House Democrats are eyeing a handout for the rich with a two-year repeal of the SALT cap.

The cap, implemented by the GOP in 2017, limits the federal deduction for state and local taxes to $10,000.

According to senior Ways and Means Committee Democrat Bill Pascrell of New Jersey, the SALT cap rollback is one of the “main considerations” before the body.

“There’s no final decision,” he said, however. “It’s a working project.”

The SALT cap discussions come as lawmakers from high-tax states (California and New York in particular) threatened Speaker Nancy Pelosi over support for other parts of Biden’s economic agenda unless the deduction cap is eliminated or at least modified.

The Ways and Means committee did not include a specific strategy for the SALT deduction in its tax plan released Monday to help pay for Biden’s agenda. But Chairman Richard Neal of Massachusetts joined Pascrell and Tom Suozzi of New York in releasing a statement that the SALT cap would be addressed in the legislative process later on.

The committee on Tuesday was meeting to finalize details of the bill, intending to send that to the House Budget Committee by Wednesday. –Bloomberg

Two years ago, Suozzi sponsored legislation attempting to double the cap to $20,000 for married couples filing jointly, and then temporarily repeal it altogether for two years for people making less than $100 million per year.

According to the report, restoring the full SALT deduction would cost the US Treasury $88.7 billion in 2021 alone, according to the Joint Committee on Taxation. A repeal lasting multiple years would of course mean considerably more.

5,96917

King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories./ of the day

3M Warns Inflation Is Here to Stay, Sees Auto Production Tumbling More Than Expected
3M SEES AUTO ’21 PRODUCTION -6% ON CHIP SHORTAGE VS -3% EARLIER
3M CFO: COST OF RAW MATERIALS IS BIGGEST SUPPLY CHAIN CHALLENGE
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/3m-warns-inflation-here-stay-sees-auto-production-tumbling-more-expected

NY Fed: Inflation Expectations Continue to Move Up
Median one-year-ahead inflation expectations increased by 0.3 percentage point to 5.2% in August, the tenth consecutive monthly increase and a new series high. Median inflation expectations at the three-year horizon also increased by 0.3 percentage point to a new series high of 4.0%… (Transitory, right Jerome?)
https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/news/research/2021/20210913

Tensions mount between CDC and Biden health team over boosters (What about follow the science?)
Senior officials from the White House and the FDA say the CDC is withholding critical data needed to develop the booster plan.  https://www.politico.com/news/2021/09/13/cdc-biden-health-team-vaccine-boosters-511529

WSJ: Covid Confusion at the CDC – Decisions on boosters relied on data from Israel. Why isn’t the U.S. producing this research?  Israel began its vaccine rollout with Pfizer in December, only days after the U.S. But Israel kept good data, reported them out frequently and quickly, and used them to track subsequent Covid infections. When the White House announced its plan to recommend a booster shot for all Americans, it cited Israeli data. The World Health Organization and others criticized the plan, calling the evidence insufficient, and in what seemed like a coordinated protest, two top scientists at the Food and Drug Administration abruptly resigned… (Current WH Covid panic is based on Israel data!)
https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-coronavirus-breakthrough-vaccine-natural-immunity-cdc-fauci-biden-failure-11631548306

Israel preparing for potential second round of coronavirus booster shots (4th jabs)
https://www.axios.com/israel-potential-second-covid-vaccine-booster-3745eea4-6f25-4f8f-9e36-cec367459539.html

The US is nearing immunity from COVID-19
Despite media claims that “We Can’t Turn the Corner on COVID,” the numbers of COVID-19 cases, new hospitalizations, and deaths nationwide peaked and started to decline around the beginning of September… roughly 80 percent of the country has vaccine or natural immunity
https://nypost.com/2021/09/12/the-us-is-nearing-immunity-from-covid-19/

Our Most Reliable Pandemic Number Is Losing Meaning – A new study suggests that almost half of those hospitalized with COVID-19 have mild or asymptomatic cases.
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2021/09/covid-hospitalization-numbers-can-be-misleading/620062/

Last week, we opined that Team Obama-Big Guy’s ploy to replay the Covid scare scheme to change his tumble in polls could backfire due to Covid scare exhaustion.

The Numbers Are In: Polling on Vaccine Mandate Very Bad News for Biden
“The numbers are clear, the American people passionately oppose Biden’s vaccine mandate…”
    The polling was conducted over the weekend by the Convention of States Action and The Trafalgar Group — one of the most accurate pollsters in 2016, 2018, and 2020 elections… When it comes to constitutional authority, only 29.7% of Americans think Biden is allowed to mandate employee vaccination as he outlined last week, while 58.6% say POTUS has no authority to do so
    68.2% of Independent voters don’t believe President Biden has the constitutional authority to force private businesses to require vaccine mandates for employees, while 21% believe he does have the authority, and 10.9% aren’t sure…  https://www.dailywire.com/news/the-numbers-are-in-polling-on-vaccine-mandate-very-bad-news-for-biden

Biden claims ‘first job offer’ from Idaho lumber company, but it’s news to them
President Biden said at a wildfire-focused event in Idaho Monday that his “first job offer” came from the local lumber and wood-products business Boise Cascade, but the company says it has “no record” of that being true…  https://nypost.com/2021/09/13/biden-claims-first-job-offer-from-idaho-lumber-company-no-record-of-it/

Reuters: Stanford professors ask Justice Department to end program looking for Chinese spies in academia    https://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSKBN2G90UO
    Ex-CIA op officer @BryanDeanWright: Beijing’s agents and useful idiots have been activated.

PLA jets will eventually patrol over Taiwan: Global Times editorial – Global Times
Sending PLA fighter jets over the island of Taiwan is a step we must take. The move will pose a fundamental warning to the Taiwan authorities and bring about reconstruction of the situation across the Taiwan Straits. It will be a clear declaration of China’s sovereignty over Taiwan island, and create unprecedented conditions for us to further implement this sovereignty (No respect for The Big Guy)
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202109/1234177.shtml

Facebook Says Its Rules Apply to All. Company Documents Reveal a Secret Elite That’s Exempt.
A program known as XCheck has given millions of celebrities, politicians and other high-profile users special treatment, a privilege many abuse
https://www.wsj.com/articles/facebook-files-xcheck-zuckerberg-elite-rules-11631541353

@JackPosobiec: Republican staff have an audio recording of Tony Blinken at an East Hampton gathering the weekend that Kabul fell. In the recording, Blinken is heard making several disparaging comments about the most senior members of the Biden administration, per GOP official

 

Blinken slammed for testifying virtually: ‘Couldn’t be bothered to come down here’
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/secretary-antony-blinken-testifying-virtually-slammed

GOP Rep. McCaul to Blinken: Is It True That Putin “Threatened” Biden to Keep US Spies Out of Central Asia? –  Secretary of State Antony Blinken all but confirmed reports that Russia “threatened” the United States to keep its spies out of Central Asian countries like Uzbekistan and Tajikstan after its withdrawal from Afghanistan when asked at a Monday hearing of the House Foreign Affairs Committee by Rep. Michael McCaul… McCaul asked: “Is it true that President Putin threatened the president of the United States, saying we could not build intelligence capabilities in the region?” “This is an important question,” Blinken replied, but it is one that “we need to take up in another [classified] setting.”…
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2021/09/13/mccaul_to_blinken_is_it_true_that_putin_threatened_biden_to_keep_us_spies_out_of_central_asia.html

@eodwcollins: Mask mandates at Newsome (CA Gov) event (Guests maskless, servants masked)
https://twitter.com/eodwcollins/status/1437040948878483460

San Fernando Valley residents have trouble casting recall ballots
At El Camino Real Charter High School in Woodland Hills, some voters say they were told the computers showed them as already having voted, even though they had not…
https://ktla.com/news/local-news/san-fernando-valley-residents-have-trouble-casting-recall-ballots/

end

 
Well that is all for today
 
I will see you WEDNESDAY night
THE COMMENTARY WILL BE ABBREVIATED//SOME COMMENTARIES//AND COMEX DATA
NO COMMENTARY ON THURSDAY.

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