SEPTEMBER 17//GOLD DOWN $5.60 TO $1751.00//SILVER DOWN 45 CENTS TO $$27.45//GOLD STANDING RISES TO 8.105 TONNES ON A HUGE QUEUE JUMP BY OUR BANKERS//SILVER OZ STANDING RISES TO 27.945//COVID COMMENTARIES//VACCINE UPDATES/IVERMECTIN UPDATES//SPECIAL ATTENTION TO DR COLE RE COVID ATTACKING CD8’S AND TELOMERASE: THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASE CANCERS//IN CANADA ALBERTA AND SASK. REVERSE COURSE AND NOW ON COMPLETE LOCKDOWNS//LOOKS LIKE ENGLAND WILL FOLLOW WITH ANOTHER LOCKDOWN ORDER//JEFFREY TUCKER A MUST READ AS TO WHY OUR FAMOUS TWO FDA OFFICIALS RESIGNED!!/TURMOIL IN CHINA AFTER EVERGRANDE DEFAULTS!!: MAJOR STORIES ON THIS ISSUE//12 MILLION AMERICANS STILL ON THE DOLE//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT!!

GOLD:$1751.00 DOWN $5.60   The quote is London spot price

Silver:$22.84 DOWN 45  CENTS  London spot price ( cash market)

 
 
4:30 closing price
Gold $1754.05
 
silver:  22.40
 
 
 
end

PLATINUM AND PALLADIUM PRICES BY GOLD-EAGLE (MORE ACCURATE)

 

 

PLATINUM  $941.60 DOWN  $6.00

PALLADIUM: $2013.45 UP $31.60/OZ 

END

Editorial of The New York Sun | February 1, 2021

end

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COMEX DETAILS//NOTICES FILED

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

receiving today 0814/853

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: SEPTEMBER 2021 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,754.600000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 09/16/2021 DELIVERY DATE: 09/20/2021
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
118 C MACQUARIE FUT 1
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 13
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 14 16
657 H MORGAN STANLEY 5
661 C JP MORGAN 500 814
709 C BARCLAYS 283
737 C ADVANTAGE 6 4
905 C ADM 50
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 853 853
MONTH TO DATE: 2,406

issued:  500

Goldman Sachs stopped: 0

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  SEPT. CONTRACT: 853 NOTICE(S) FOR 85300 OZ  (2.643 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR THIS MONTH:  2406 FOR 240600 OZ  (7.4836 TONNES)

SILVER//sept CONTRACT

3 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR  15,000   OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month 5295  :  for 26,475,000  oz

 

BITCOIN MORNING QUOTE  $47,611 DOWN 436  DOLLARS 

BITCOIN AFTERNOON QUOTE.:$47,422  DOWN 625 DOLLARS. 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

GLD AND SLV INVENTORIES:

GLD AND SLV INVENTORIES:

Gold

WITH GOLD  DOWN $5.60 AND NO PHYSICAL TO BE FOUND ANYWHERE:

A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:  A WITHDRAWAL OF .29 TONNES FROM THE GLD.

WITH RESPECT TO GLD WITHDRAWALS:  (OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS)

GOLD IS “RETURNED” TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHEN CALLING IN THEIR LEASES: THE GOLD NEVER LEAVES THE BANK OF ENGLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BANK IS PROTECTING ITSELF IN CASE OF COMMERCIAL FAILURE

ALSO INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (phys) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//

THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD!!

GLD  999.92 TONNES OF GOLD//

Silver

AND WITH NO SILVER AROUND  TODAY: WITH SILVER DOWN 45 CENTS

NO CHANGES  IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: 

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV

WITH REGARD TO SILVER WITHDRAWALS FROM THE SLV:

THE SILVER WITHRAWALS ARE ACTUALLY “RETURNED” TO JPM, AS JPMORGAN CALLS IN ITS LEASES WITH THE SLV FUND.  (THE STORY IS THE SAME AS THE BANK OF ENGLAND’S GOLD). THE SILVER NEVER LEAVES JPMORGAN’S VAULT. THEY ARE CALLING IN THEIR LEASES FOR FEAR OF SOLVENCY ISSUES.

INVENTORY RESTS AT: 

544.624  MILLION OZ./SLV

xxxxx

GLD closing price//NYSE 163,78 DOWN  0.25 OR 0.15%

XXXXXXXXXXXXX

SLV closing price NYSE 20.74 DOWN $.51 OR 2.40%

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

 
 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 
 
 

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A POWERFUL SIZED 3397 CONTRACTS TO 144,247, AND CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020. THE GAIN IN OI OCCURRED DESPITE OUR  $0.92 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX  ON THURSDAY.

OUR BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN ,()IT FELL BY $0.92

BUT THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OUT ANY SILVER LONGS AS WE HAD AN ATMOSPHERIC GAIN OF 7,173 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.WE  ALSO HAD I) HUGE  BANKER SHORT COVERING AS THEY ARE VERY ANXIOUS TO GET OUT OF DODGE!!/WE ALSO HAD  SOME ii) REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//.    iii)  A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) A  SMALL INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 27.64 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY A 360,000 OZ  QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING 28.155 MILLION OZ  / v) STRONG SIZED COMEX OI GAIN,
 
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL:
 
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI SILVER TODAY: CONTRACTS -64
 

 
 
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS
 
 
SEPTEMBER
 
ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF SEPT:
 
8863 CONTACTS  for 12 days, total 8863 contracts or 44.315 million oz…average per day:  738 contracts or 3.6929 million oz per day.

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER: SO FAR THIS MONTH OF

SEPT:  44.315 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON

LAST 4 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: 140.120 MILLION OZ 

 
RESULT: , … WE HAD A GIGANTIC SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 3397 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR 92 CENT LOSS SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ///THURSDAYHE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 3776 CONTRACTS( 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR SEPT AND 3776 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR DECEMBER) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS.
 
TODAY WE HAD AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED GAIN OF 7,173 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGE/THE DOMINANT FEATURE TODAY:/HUGE BANKER SHORTCOVERING AS THEY GET OUT OF DODGE/  ( WITH OUR $0.92 LOSS AND WE HAVE A SMALL INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR SEPTEMBER27.640 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED TODAY BY A  QUEUE JUMP.  OF 360,000 OZ TODAY//NEW STANDING 28.155 MILLION OZ//
 

WE HAD 3 NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR 15,000 OZ

GOLD

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 2174  CONTRACTS TO 505,193 _ ,,AND CLOSER TO FROM  OUR NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110. 

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY:  – 245  CONTRACTS.

THE SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI CAME DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $37.00///COMEX GOLD TRADING/THURSDAY.AS IN SILVER WE MUST HAVE HAD HUGE BANKER/ALGO SHORT COVERING ACCOMPANYING OUR HUGE SIZED EXCHANGE FOR  PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AS THE TOTAL GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES TOTALLED 12,512 CONTRACTS. WE ALSO HAD A GOOD INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR SEPT AT 3.586 TONNES, FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 86,300 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING 8.105 TONNES// 
 
 
 

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $37.00 WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD A VOLUME OF 0    4 -GC CONTRACTS//OPEN INTEREST  0//

WE HAD A GIGANTIC SIZED GAIN OF 12,512  OI CONTRACTS (38.92 TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 10,338 CONTRACTS:

CONTRACT  AND JULY:  0; AUGUST: 0 & DEC 10,338  ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO//TOTAL: 2482 The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 505,193. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EXCHANGE DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 12,512  CONTRACTS: 2174 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 10,338 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 12,757 CONTRACTS OR 38.92 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A STRONG SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (10,338) ACCOMPANYING THE SMALL SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (2174 OI): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES: 12,512 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING ,2.) GOOD INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR SEPT. AT 3.586 TONNES//FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 86,300 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING 8.105 TONNES / 3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION, /// ;4)SMALL SIZED COMEX OI GAIN 5) HUGE ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL

SPREADING OPERATIONS(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD)

FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS:

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF OCT. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD

 

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:
HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT, FOR GOLD:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

 
 
 
 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2021 INCLUDING TODAY

SEPTEMBER

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF SEPT : 28,332, CONTRACTS OR 2,833,200 oz OR 88.12 TONNES (12 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2361 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 12 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 88.12 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2020, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  88.12/3550 x 100% TONNES  2.48% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO DATE
 
JANUARY: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)
 
FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..
 
MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN///IT SURPASSED JANUARY!!)

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          88.15 TONNES INITIAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, ROSE BY A GIGANTIC SIZED 3397 CONTRACTS TO 144,247 AND CLOSER TO  TO OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  4 1/2 YEARS AGO.  

EFP ISSUANCE 3766 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

JULY 0  AND SEPT: 0; DEC 3776  ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  3776 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI GAIN OF 3397 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 3776 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,WE OBTAIN AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED GAIN OF 7173 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 35.87 MILLION  OZ, OCCURRED WITH OUR $0.92 LOSS IN PRICE. 

 

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL..THE EVIDENCE IS CLEAR: HUGE AMOUNTS OF PHYSICAL STANDING FOR BOTH  SILVER AND GOLD .

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Gold

(Peter Schiff, Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,

 
 
 

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

)FRIDAY MORNING/THURSDAY  NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 6.87  PTS  OR 0.14%   //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 252.91 PTS OR 1.03%      /The Nikkei closed UP 176,71 PTS OR 0.56%   //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.73%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP TO 6.4555  /Oil UP TO 70.69 dollars per barrel for WTI and 73.89 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MIXED   /ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED  UP AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.4555. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.4527/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%/

 
3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

NORTH KOREA//USA/OUTLINE

END

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3 C CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

OUTLINE
 

COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 2174 CONTRACTS TO 505,193 MOVING CLOSER TO FROM TO  THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020).  AND THIS SMALL COMEX INCREASE OCCURRED DESPITE OUR HUGE LOSS OF $37.00 IN GOLD PRICING THURSDAY’SCOMEX TRADING.WE ALSO HAD A GIGANTIC EFP ISSUANCE (10,338 CONTRACTS). …AS THEY WERE PAID HANDSOMELY  NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AND SETTLE FOR CASH. LOOKS LIKE OUR BANKERS ARE FINALLY BAILING OUT!!

WE NORMALLY HAVE WITNESSED  EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS. IT SEEMS THAT ARE BANKERS FRIENDS ARE EXERCISING EFP’S FROM LONDON AND NOW THEY ARE LOATHE TO ISSUE NEW ONES.  

(SEE BELOW)

WE  HAD 0    4 -GC VOLUME//open interest REMAINS AT   0

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW MOVING TO THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A HUGE SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 10,338 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  ;: ,  JULY 0 & AUGUST:  & DEC.  10,338 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 10,338  CONTRACTS 

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION,  EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A HUGE SIZED 12,512 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 10,338 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A SMALL SIZED COMEX OI OF 2174 CONTRACTS.WE HAVE A GOOD AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR SEPT   (5.306),

 HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 8 MONTHS OF 20201:

SEPT: 5.306 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB. 113.424 TONNES

JAN: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR (JAN- AUGUST): 411.289 TONNNES

THE BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT FELL $11.90).,BUT THEY WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING ANY LONGS AS THE TOTAL GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES REGISTERED 39.67 TONNES.ACCOMPANYING OUR GOOD GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR SEPT. (8.105 TONNES)..I  STRONGLY BELIEVE THAT OUR BANKER FRIENDS ARE GETTING QUITE NERVOUS.  THE SMALL SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI IS DUE TO BANKER SHORT COVERING IN A BIG WAY.  THEY ARE LOOKING OVER THEIR SHOULDERS AND WITNESSING MASSIVE SILVER/GOLD SHORTAGES THAT CANNOT BE COVERED. THEY ARE TRYING TO FLEE IN HASTE “FROM DODGE”.

WE HAD – 245 CONTRACTS FROM COMEX TRADES. THESE WERE REMOVED AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT. 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES :: 12,512 CONTRACTS OR 1,251,200 OZ OR 38.92 TONNES

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT COMMODITY FUTURES OPEN INTEREST SHOULD APPROXIMATE 3% OF TOTAL PRODUCTION.  IN GOLD THE WORLD PRODUCES AROUND 3500 TONNES PER YEAR BUT ONLY 2200 TONNES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE WEST (THUS EXCLUDING RUSSIA, CHINA ETC..WHO KEEP 100% OF THEIR PRODUCT.
 
THUS IN GOLD WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:  505,193 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS X 100 OZ PER CONTRACT = 50.52 MILLION OZ/32,150 OZ PER TONNE =  15.71 TONNES

THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST REPRESENTS 1571/2200 OR 71.42% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF GOLD.

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX GOLD TODAY  185,499 contracts//    / volume//awful////raid

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY: 272,613 contracts//fair

// //most of our traders have left for London

 

SEPT 17

/2021

 
INITIAL STANDINGS FOR SEPT COMEX GOLD
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
 
8197.787 OZ
JPMorgan
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz
nil
OZ
 
 
 
 
 
 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz
 
 
nil
 
oz
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
No of oz served (contracts) today
853  notice(s)
85300 OZ
 
2.643 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)
200 contracts
20000 oz
 
2.031 TONNES
 
 
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
2406 notices
240600 OZ
7.4836 TONNES
 
 
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz
 
 
 
We had 0 deposit into the dealer
 
 
 
 
total deposit: nil   oz 
 

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had  0 deposit into the customer account
 
TOTAL CUSTOMER DEPOSITS 0 oz
 
 
 
We had 1  customer withdrawals.
i) Out of JPMorgan: 8107.787 oz
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
total customer withdrawals 8107.787    oz
     
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

We had 2  kilobar transactions 2 out of  2 transactions)

ADJUSTMENTS 0// 

 
 
 
the front month of September has an open interest of 1053 for a GAIN of 363 contracts. We had 500 notices served on WEDNESDAY.  Thus we gained 863 contracts or an additional 86,300 oz will stand for delivery in this non active delivery month of September for gold as they negated a fiat bonus for not accepting an EFP.
 
 
 
 
OCTOBER GAINED 665 CONTRACTS UP TO 36,809
NOVEMBER GAINED 36 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 82
.
DEC GAINED 17  TO STAND AT 408,278
 

We had 0 notice(s) filed today for 0  oz

FOR THE SEPT 2021 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 853  contract(s) of which 0  notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 814 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0  notices received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the SEPT /2021. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (2406) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  (SEPT: 1053 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today  853 x 100 oz per contract equals 260,600 OZ OR 8.105 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this active month of SEPTEMBER.  

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the SEPT contract month:

No of notices filed so far (2406) x 100 oz+( 1053)  OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (853} x 100 oz} which equals 260,600 oz standing OR 8.105 TONNES in this  active delivery month of SEPTEMBER.

We GAINED 863 contracts or an additional 86,300 oz will not stand for delivery over on this side of the pond.

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING:  8.105 TONNES

 
 

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

427,737.391, oz NOW PLEDGED  march 5/2021/HSBC  13.30 TONNES

284,899.652 PLEDGED  MANFRA 8.8615 TONNES

298,568.054, oz  JPM  9.28 TONNES

1,177,555.732 oz pledged June 12/2020 Brinks/36.50 TONNES

160,865.707, oz Pledged August 21/regular account 4.164 tonnes JPMORGAN

41,127.478 oz International Delaware:  1.27 tonnes

18,615.429 Loomis:  0.5790 tonnes

total pledged gold:  2,405,269.444oz                                     74.81 tonnes

 

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES…. WE HAVE 495.17 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS 8.105 tonnes

CALCULATION OF REGISTERED THAT CAN BE SETTLED UPON:

total registered or dealer  18,324,956.122 oz or 569.98 tonnes
 
 
 
total weight of pledged: 2,405,269.444   oz                                     74.81 tonnes
 
 
 
registered gold that can be used to settle upon: 15,919,687.0 (495.17 tonnes) 
 
 
 
 
true registered gold  (total registered – pledged tonnes15,919,687.0 (495.17 tonnes)   
 
 
total eligible gold: 15,778,118.499 oz   (490.76 tonnes)
 
 
 
total registered, pledged  and eligible (customer) gold  34,113,073.671 oz or 1,061.05 tonnes
 (INCLUDES 4 GC GOLD)
 
 

total 4 GC gold:   126.34 tonnes

total gold net of 4 GC:  934.71 tonnes

end

 
 

I have compiled  data with respect to registered (or dealer) gold taken on first day notice for each of the past 24 months

The data begins on first day notice for the May month taken on the last day of July 2018. and it continues to present day.

I then took, how many deliveries were recorded by the CME for each and every month.  I also included for reference the price of gold on first day notice.

The first graph is a logarithmic  graph and the second graph, linear.

You can see the huge explosion of registered gold at the comex along with deliveries.

 
 
THE DATA AND GRAPHS:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
END

SEPT 17/2021

And now for the wild silver comex results

INITIAL STANDING FOR SILVER//SEPTEMBER

Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 
616,352.552  oz
 
CNT
Delaware
Manfra
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil OZ
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
 
nil
 OZ
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
No of oz served today (contracts)
3
 
CONTRACT(S)
 
15,000  OZ)
 
No of oz to be served (notices)
336 contracts
 1,680,000oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  5295 contracts

26,475,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
 
We had 0 deposit into the dealer
 
 

total dealer deposits:  nil        oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had  0 deposits into customer account (ELIGIBLE ACCOUNT)

i

 
 
 

JPMorgan now has 186.501 million oz  silver inventory or 51.23% of all official comex silver. (186.501 million/360.281 million

total customer deposits today nil   oz

we had 3 withdrawals

i) out of CNT:  6975.87 oz

ii) Out of Manfra:  608,346.882 oz

iii) Out of Delaware: 1029.800 oz

 

total withdrawal 616,372.552        oz

adjustments:0     
 
 

Total dealer(registered) silver: 101.843 million oz

total registered and eligible silver:  360.281 million oz

a net.0.616 million oz  leaves  the comex silver vaults.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 
 
For Sept. we have an open interest of 339 for a GAIN of 37 contracts.  We had 35 notices served on Tuesday, so we GAINED 72 contracts or 360,000 additional oz will stand for delivery at the comex in this very active delivery month of September.
 
 
 

OCTOBER LOST 163 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 1818

NOVEMBER GAINED 196 TO STAND AT 392  

DEC GAINED 3102 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 125,915

 
NO. OF NOTICES FILED: 3  FOR 15,000 OZ.

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in SEPTEMBER. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at  5295 x 5,000 oz = 26,475,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of SEPT (339) and the number of notices served upon today 3 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the SEPT standings for silver for the SEPT./2021 contract month: 5295 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of SEPT(339)  – number of notices served upon today (3) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the SEPTEMBER contract month .equals 28,155,000 oz. ..

We gained 72 contract or AN ADDITIONAL 360,000 oz will stand on this side of the pond 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME  61,649 CONTRACTS // volume poor///

FOR YESTERDAY 93,662  ,CONFIRMED VOLUME/ good

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV  RISES TO -1.64% (SEPT17/2021)

SILVER FUND POSITIVE TO NAV

no of oz of physical silver held  JULY 8.2021;  150,926,000  (GAIN OF 6.411 MILION OZ IN A MONTH)

No of oz of physical silver held; MAY 24/2021  144,515,694 OZ

No. of oz of physical silver held:  Sept 20/20: 85,907.3616  Oz

No of oz pf physical silver held: Dec 21/2019:  65,073.570 Oz

During the past 8 months Sprott has added: 58,608.30 Oz

So far this year: 53.8 million oz

2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -0.85% nav   (SEPT17)/2021 )

3. SPROTT CEF .A   FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA)

NAV $18.45 TRADING 17.89//NEGATIVE  3.04

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/(this vehicle is a fraud as there is no gold behind them!

SEPT 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.60 TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .29 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 999.21 TONNES/

SEPT 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.90 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1000.21 TONNES

SEPT 14/WITH GOLD UP $12,90 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.04 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1000.21 TONNES

SEPTEMBER 13//WITH GOLD UP $1.70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 998.17 TONNES

SEPTEMBER 10//WITH GOLD DOWN $7.40//A SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD”: A WITHDRAWAL OF .35 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 998.17

SEPT 9/WITH GOLD UP $7.10 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 998.52 TONNES/

SEPT 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.90 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 998.52 TONNES

SEPT 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $35.35 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY REST AT 998.52 TONNES.

SEPT 3/WITH GOLD UP $22.00 TODAY: A HUGE  CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .74 TONNES FROM THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 999.52 TONNES

SEPT 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.45 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1000.26 TONNES

SEPT 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00 TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.46 TONNES FORM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1000.26 TONNES.

AUGUST 31/WITH GOLD UP $5.60 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1001.72 TONNES./

AUGUST 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.15 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1001.72 TONNES/

AUGUST 27/WITH GOLD UP $23.79 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1001.72 TONNES

AUGUST 26/WITH GOLD UP $6.10 TODAY, A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.91 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1001.72 TONNES.

AUGUST 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $17.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1004.63 TONNES

AUGUST 24/ WITH GOLD UP $2.60 TODAY: A MONSTER CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 4.95 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1006.66 TONNES.

AUGUST 23/WITH GOLD UP $21.25 TODAY:  NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1011.61 TONNES// 

AUGUST 20/WITH GOLD UP $1.05 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 3.49 TONNES FROM THE GLD //INVENTORY RESTS AT 1011.61 TONNES

AUGUST 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.30 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1015.10 TONNES/

AUGUST 18/WITH GOLD  DOWN $2.85 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.53 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1015.10 TONNES/

AUGUST 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.50 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1020.63 TONNES

AUGUST 16/WITH GOLD UP $11.50 TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A LOSS OF 1.75 TONNES FROM TH EGLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1021.79 TONNES

AUGUST 13/WITH GOLD UP $26.20 TODAY NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1023.54 TONNES

AUGUST 12/ WITH GOLD DOWN $1.20 TODAY NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1023.54 TONNES

AUGUST 11/WITH GOLD UP $21.20 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1023.54 TONNES

AUGUST 10/WITH GOLD UP $11.50 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.75 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1023.54 TONNES

AUGUST 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $37.10 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1025.29 TONNES

AUGUST 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $44.10 TODAY: TWO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF .36 TONNES TO PAY FOR FEES. ANDLATE IN THE DAY A HUGE 2.32 TONNE WITHDRAWAL//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1025.29 TONNES

AUGUST 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.15 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1027.97 TONNES

AUGUST 4/WITH GOLD UP $.45 TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1027.97 TONNES

AUGUST 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.95 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.75 TONNES FROM THE GLD../INVENTORY RESTS AT 1029.71 TONNES.

 
 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Inventory rests tonight at:

 

SEPT 17 / GLD INVENTORY 999.92 tonnes

LAST;  1313 TRADING DAYS:   +75.11 TONNES HAVE BEEN ADDED THE GLD

LAST 983 TRADING DAYS// +  250.53. TONNES HAVE NOW  BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them!)

SEPT 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 45 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.624 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.624 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 14/WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.11 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.624 MILLION OZ

SEPT 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 12 CENTS; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.131MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 545.735 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 10 WITH SILVER DOWN 26 CENTS; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 547.866 MILLION OZ..

SEPT 9/ WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 547.866 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 8/WITH SILVE DOWN 30 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.037 MILLION OF FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 547.866 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 32 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 549.903 MILLION OZ.

SEPT 3/WITH SILVER UP 83 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 549.903 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 29 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 977,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 549.903 MILLION OZ

SEPT 1/WITH SILVER UP 20 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 550.880 MILLION OZ.

AUGUST 31/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 5.002 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 550.880 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY REST S AT 545.878 MILLION OZ////

AUGUST 27/WITH SILVER UP 47 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 545.878 MILLION OZ/./

AUGUST 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 22 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 545.878 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 545.878 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST24/WITH SILVER UP 37 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLSV: ANOTHER PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 3.427 MILLION OZ AND THIS IS HEADING FOR SPROTT//INVENTORY RESTS AT 545.878 MILLION OZ..

AUGUST 23/WITH SILVER UP 50 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV;A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.641 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 549.305 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 551.946 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.389 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 551.946 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 18/ WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.131 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV.INVENTORY REST AT 553.375 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 555.466 MILLION OZ.

AUGUST 16/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 555.466 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 13/WITH SILVER UP 59 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE   SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.038 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 555.466 MILLION OZ.

AUGUST 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 39 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 553.428 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 11/WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 553.428 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 10.WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 553.428 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 78 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 371,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 553.428 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 86 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 553.057 MILLION OZ.

AUGUST 5/WITH  SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY;NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 553.057 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 12 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV;A WITHDRAWAL OF 240,000 OZ FORM THE SLV//INVENTORY REST AT 553.057 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 3/WITH  SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 553.297 MILLION OZ..

 
 

SLV INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT

SEPT 17/2021      544.624 MILLION OZ

 
 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

PETER SCHIFF

Peter Schiff: Too Much Money; Not Enough Stuff

 
THURSDAY, SEP 16, 2021 – 01:03 PM

Via SchiffGold.com,

For the first time in nine months, the government CPI data came in under expectations. Prices rose by 0.3% last month, just below the 0.4% projection. Year on year, the CPI was up 5.3%. Core inflation, stripping out more volatile food and energy (for those of you who don’t eat or use energy) was up 0.1%. Core inflation is up 4% on the year.

In his podcast, Peter Schiff took a deeper dive into the numbers and explained why this doesn’t prove inflation is “transitory.” He also drilled down to the root cause of rising prices – too much money chasing not enough stuff. Given the current monetary policy, that doesn’t appear set to change anytime soon.

Focusing on the headline number of 0.3%, a lot of people were relieved because we finally got a cooler than expected inflation read. In the minds of many, it also validated the Federal Reserve’s narrative that inflation is “transitory.” But as Peter put it, “One month does not transitory make.”

First of all, 0.3% in one month, in-and-of-itself, is still a lot of pricing pressure. Because if you annualize 0.3, well, that’s almost 4% per year. So, if we got this ‘good number’ 12 months in a row, that’s a 4% gain in consumer prices, which is almost double what the Fed claims it wants, which is a rate slightly above 2%. Well, 4% isn’t slightly above 2%. It’s almost double 2%. So, this is not a great number in-and-of-itself.”

You also have to put the August number in context. If you annualize the year-to-date increase in the first 8 months of 2021, the CPI would come in at 6.3%. That’s more than triple the Fed target.

I don’t see how getting a slight amount of relief in that the number wasn’t as bad as it could have been for one lone month — I would not get excited and prematurely write an obituary for inflation.”

Peter noted that the CPI drastically understates rental costs. The increase in “owner’s equivalent rent” was just 0.2%, and yet private sector reports show double-digit increases in rents across the country in 2021. Meanwhile, home prices are up some 20%.

For the government to claim housing costs are only up 2 or 3% year-over-year – that is ridiculous. And it is artificially suppressing the CPI rate because that is such a big component. Shelter is a third of the index. And that third, that number, is much lower than it should be if we actually plugged in real home prices or actual rents that people are really paying. Not the rents that the government is pretending people are paying.”

Peter reiterated that the CPI numbers are inherently dishonest and understate rising prices.

Looking at the broader inflation picture, CPI continues to run behind producer prices. Annualized PPI is up 10.5% on the year, a full 4% ahead of CPI. Peter said the big divergence between CPI and PPI doesn’t bode well for the consumer.

The question is how much longer are companies going to eat these diminishing margins?”

Also, keep in mind, the Fed has effectively changed the meaning of “transitory.” It doesn’t mean temporary. The Fed simply means the CPI rate is transitory.

The price increases are permanent.”

The mainstream continues to blame rising prices on supply chain issues. There are shortages everywhere. As Peter noted, the fact that there seem to be shortages in all sectors of the economy should tell people there is something else going on here.

How can everything be in short supply? And the truth of the matter is it’s really a surplus of money that is the problem, not so much a shortage of stuff. Because there’s always a shortage of stuff when you print too much money.”

In a normal economy, demand flows from supply. People work and add goods and services to the economy. When they get paid for their work, they can then buy stuff from the bag of goods and services to which they contributed. Over the last 18 months, a lot of people weren’t working. They didn’t contribute anything to the bag of goods and services. But the government printed a whole bunch of money and handed it out, allowing these same people to continue grabbing stuff out of the bag.

Obviously, there’s not going to be enough stuff in that bag, especially when you have millions of hands that put nothing into the bag reaching in to grab something. And so the only thing that can happen is that prices go up. That’s how the market adjusts when you have all this new demand but no increase in supply. You have to ration the supply with a higher price. If everybody who was buying stuff was also producing stuff, that wouldn’t be a problem.”

As Milton Friedman once said, “Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.” An increasing money supply means more dollars chasing roughly the same amount of stuff. As a result, prices rise. As economist Daniel Lacalle put it, “More supply of money directed towards scarce assets, be it real estate or raw materials. The purchasing power of money goes down.”

You’re never going to have an unlimited supply of stuff.

That’s why the emphasis on growing an economy has to be on increasing production. By capital investment and savings under consumption, you can have more stuff. You can’t just focus on demand. You can’t just print money and give it to people and then be surprised when there’s nothing to buy — because they didn’t make anything. If it was that easy, if all you had to do was print money, then Zimbabwe would have been a smashing success story.”

And yet we have a record increase in money supply and nobody wants to even consider that it might be contributing to rising prices.

How you can write about a huge inflation problem and completely overlook the elephant in the living room meaning all the inflation, all the money supply that’s being printed? Obviously, you’re not going to put your finger on the real cause.”

In this podcast, Peter also talks about rising inflation expectations among consumers, gold stocks marking a potential turning point, inflation’s role in driving government spending (at the expense of the middle class) and hedge funds buying preferential tax treatment from politicians.

 

EGON VON GREYERZ//MATHEW PIEPENBERG/JIM RICKARDS/PAM AND RUSS MARTENS

OR LAWRIE WILLIAMS

LAWRIE WILLIAMS: Gold and silver

-END-

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

Your weekend reading material:

Alasdair Macleod

Alasdair Macleod: The funny money game

 

 

 Section: Daily Dispatches

By Alasdair Macleod
GoldMoney, Toronto
Thursday, September 16, 2021

The sense of general unease that I detect among those I meet and discuss economics and financial matters with is increasing —with good reason. Clearly, what everyone calls inflation, rising prices or more accurately currency debasement, will lead to higher interest rates, threatening markets which are unmistakably in bubble territory.

The consequences of rising prices and interest rates are still being badly underestimated

In this article I get to the source of the inflation problem, which is the monetary debasement of the dollar and other major currencies. An important part of the problem is that mathematical economists have lost sight of what their beloved statistics represent —none more so than with GDP.

I explain why GDP is simply the total of accumulating currency and credit which is wrongly taken reflect economic progress – there being no such thing as economic growth. Once that point is grasped, the significance of this basic error becomes clear, and the fiat currency paradigm is revealed for what it is: a funny-money game that will go horribly wrong.

There is only one escape from it, and that is to own the one form of money that is no one’s counterparty risk; the one form of money that always comes to humanity’s rescue when fiat fails.

And that is gold. It is neglected by nearly everyone because it is the anti-bubble. The more that people believe in fiat-denominated assets, the less they believe in gold. That is until their funny-money games implode, inevitably triggered by sharply rising interest rates. …

… For the remainder of the analysis:

https://www.goldmoney.com/research/goldmoney-insights/the-funny-money-game?gmrefcode=gata

End

Brandon White on the decline of the Petro-dollar

(Brandon White)

Brandon White: The petro-dollar era is ending, so what’s next?

 

 

 Section: Daily Dispatches

9p ET Thursday, 16, 2021

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Brandon White of Good Mining Exploration Inc., an old hand in the gold business and longtime GATA supporter, writes this week that the international oil business is escaping the domination of the U.S. dollar. The decline of the “petro-dollar” system, White argues, signals big changes in the international monetary system, changes that will restore gold and silver to their historic places.

White’s analysis is headlined “The Petro-Dollar Era Is Ending — What’s Next?” and it’s posted at Good Mining Exploration’s internet site here:

https://www.goodmining.com/news/the-petro-dollar-era-is-ending

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

Ray Dalio:  if bitcoin is really successful, then Governments will kill it

Ray Dalio/CNBC

Government will ‘kill’ bitcoin if it is ‘really successful,’ hedge fund founder Dalio says

 

 

 Section: Daily Dispatches

Ray, they’re already doing a pretty good job with gold, so how about talking about that some time? All you need has been assembled here:

https://gata.org/node/20925

* * *

Ray Dalio says if bitcoin is really successful, regulators will ‘kill it’

By Yun Li
CNBC, New York
Wednesday, September 15, 2021

Ray Dalio, founder of the world’s largest hedge fund, Bridgewater Associates, believes regulators would ultimately take control of bitcoin if the cryptocurrency gains mainstream success.

“I think at the end of the day if it’s really successful, they will kill it and they will try to kill it. And I think they will kill it because they have ways of killing it,” Dalio told Andrew Ross Sorkin Wednesday on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” at the SALT conference in New York.

END

OTHER PHYSICAL STORIES//COMMODITIES/SHIPPING

URANIUM

Aussie uranium stocks soar after Australia decides that it wants nuclear industry

to go along with their new nuclear subs

(zerohedge)

Aussie Uranium Stocks Soar After Australia Decides It Wants Nuclear Industry To Go With New Nuclear Subs

 
THURSDAY, SEP 16, 2021 – 09:30 PM

Following last night “historic” AUKUS deal, which officially pitted US and UK with Australia against China, in the process supplying the aussies with nuclear-powered subs (while enraging the French whose $50 billion contract to build diesel-electric submarines was scrapped as a result), Australia has a revelation: the deal would see Australia become the only country in the world with nuclear-powered submarines to not have its own domestic nuclear industry. This in turn immediately led to further calls to reverse a longstanding ban on developing local uranium resources.

“Getting nuclear subs makes sense for our national defense,” said Queensland Nationals Senator Matt Canavan, who has been leading a push in parliament to develop Australia’s nuclear industry. “But no country in the world has nuclear subs without having nuclear power,” he said.

“I thought before the subs deal we should have nuclear power — it makes even more sense now.”

As Australia’s Daily Telegraph poignantly observes, France, which was previously to supply Australia with diesel subs assembled in Adelaide, has its own fleet of 10 nuclear attack and nuclear ballistic missile submarines, and derives more than 70% of its domestic energy needs from nuclear power. Of course, Russia and the US both have large nuclear-powered naval fleets, and derive about 20% of their respective domestic electricity from nuclear.

China, meanwhile, is continuing to develop its own nuclear-powered and nuclear-armed navy but only relies on atomic energy for 5% cent of its power, thanks to its lax environmental standards and reliance on coal-fired power.

As a result, local mining industry figures, said that this was the perfect time to reignite the discussion about nuclear.

“This is a perfect opportunity to update our approach to nuclear energy by removing the cold-war era ban on uranium mining in NSW. It’s a real chance to develop a new industry here in NSW that could provide local uranium to meet our domestic energy and national security needs,” NSW Mining CEO Stephen Galilee said.

Galilee’s thoughts were echoed by the Minerals Council of Australia’s Tania Constable, who said of the deal, “This is an incredible opportunity for Australia’s economy — not only will we develop the skills and infrastructure to support this naval technology, but it connects us to the growing global nuclear power industry and its supply chains.

But, she added, “Outdated regulations at the federal and state levels that prohibit nuclear power — and in some cases exploration and mining of uranium — contribute to Australia being unable to properly even consider, let alone develop, this important industry.”

Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese, however, kiboshed any thought of leveraging a domestic nuclear industry off the deal, saying that a condition for the ALP’s support was that “there be no requirement of a domestic civil nuclear industry”.

His objection, however, fell on deaf ears and overnight Australia’s uranium stocks soared on hopes that Australia was indeed set to finally enter the nuclear era. As a result Deep Yellow jumped as much as 10%, Paladin Energy soared as much as 9.3%, Defense contractor Austal shares climbs as much as 7.4%; the most since March and Peninsula Energy jumped at much as 17%.

Meanwhile, back in the US uranium stocks have continued their ascent as more investors focus on Sprott’s attempt to go “Hunt Brothers” on uranium with his Sprott Physical Uranium Trust  which has been on a buying spree, bolstering its stockpile by 45% in four weeks after snapping up 8.1 million pounds of the commodity while prices soared. Uranium has surged 40% this month, putting pressure on utility owners and other users when supplies are dwindling and demand is set to take off thanks to more reactors being built around the world.

Discussing its strategy with Bloomberg, the Canadian firm behind the world’s only physical uranium fund said it wasn’t solely responsible for the move, but that hedge funds and family offices are driving up demand for the radioactive metal used to fuel nuclear reactors.

“I don’t think we’re crowding them out,” said John Ciampaglia, chief executive officer of Sprott Asset Management, which oversees the trust. “You’ve got end users that are trying to buy materials, you’ve got speculators and financial intermediaries in the market as well.”

Investment demand from non-utility buyers such as hedge funds and family offices has been strong this year, even before Sprott’s asset-management unit launched its trust on July 19, according to Ciampaglia. A few uranium development companies bought the physical commodity after raising equity in the capital markets rather than parking the proceeds into cash, he said.

Still, according to the latest data, Sprott’s trust holds about 26 million pounds of uranium, equal to about 14% of the annual consumption from the world’s nuclear reactors. The closed-end fund was formed out of an April takeover of Uranium Participation Corp., which held 18 million pounds of uranium, and its trust units trade on the Toronto Stock Exchange. The fund invests and holds substantially all of its assets in uranium, which is stored in highly secured facilities in Canada, France and the U.S.

Units of Sprott Physical Uranium Trust have soared 42% in September since our post “A Bitcoin-Like Opportunity In Uranium?”

Historically low prices and pandemic-driven mine disruptions have prompted uranium producers including Cameco to buy from the spot market to fulfill their long-term contracts with consumers. That means stockpiling by the Sprott fund may have the potential for tightening the market and boosting prices, in the process as prices rise, the value of the fund will rise as well, attracting more inflows, leading to even more uranium purchases, even higher prices and so on until we have another Hunt Brothers situation on our hands, only with uranium this time instead of silver.

The robust investment demand is built on a growing realization that nuclear power is becoming more accepted by policymakers worldwide as a way to limit greenhouse-gas emissions, Ciampaglia said Wednesday in an interview. Australia’s reaction was merely confirmation of this.

“That’s something that’s just recent, and you’re seeing this from the Biden administration acknowledging and providing support for nuclear,” he said. “And the European Union clearly identifies nuclear as part of the taxonomy.”

As Bloomberg adds, Uranium is also getting a boost from generalist investors who are seeking investments that meet environmental, social and governance criteria or support the energy shift away from fossil fuels, he said.

Then there’s the recent buzz from retail investors, with uranium becoming a recent target of the meme-stock frenzy that share tips on Reddit message boards. Cameco, the world’s second-largest uranium miner, was the most searched stock symbol on Monday, according to WallStreetBets Ticker Sentiment.

Reddit day-traders “seem to be into it,” Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Eric Balchunas said in an interview. “When you have something that’s starting to surge that’s been beaten for 10 years and there’s some more room to run potentially, I think that’s what they’re trying to do.”

END

IRON ORE

the collapse of Evergrande is having a devastating effect on iron ore prices

(zerohedge)

Iron Ore Futures Stumble In Worst Week Ever Amid Evergrande Meltdown

 
FRIDAY, SEP 17, 2021 – 09:57 AM

Iron ore prices have plunged under $100 per ton (its worst week ever) as anxiety over China’s Lehman moment: the collapse of Evergrande, a Chinese real estate company with $300 billion of debt, is weighing on some base metal prices. 

Iron ore futures on the Singapore Exchange plummeted 21% this week as the Evergrande meltdown has hurt China’s residential property market outlook. Evergrande’s 2023 bonds overlaid on iron ore futures suggest metal traders are concerned the massive real estate company might fold, and the stoppage of new residential buildings could hamper future demand. 

Beijing has also pushed to reign in the country’s massive steel industry by forcibly shutting down smelters to reduce carbon emissions ahead of next year’s Winter Olympics. 

This week’s slump makes iron ore the worst-performing major commodities and an outlier as aluminum soars to a 13-year high, coal futures surge, natural gas prices are on a tear, and power prices are off the charts in some parts of the world. 

Iron ore prices slumping below $100 is a sign of relief for steel producers but inversely impact the world’s top miners, many of whom are based in Australia, have handsomely reaped the profits of the key steel-making ingredient, more than doubling in price since the pandemic low of around $80. 

If Evergrande is “too big to fail,” then one would suspect a government bailout to ensure the property market doesn’t stumble is imminent, which would help stabilize the metals market. 

New data from the People’s Bank of China shows Beijing has blinked. On Friday, the central bank added $14 billion in liquidity injections, the most significant one-day injection since February. It suggests the one-time liquidity boost could be tied to measures to prevent a system-wide unraveling as Evergrande faces insolvency. 

The one thing Beijing cannot let happen is to allow depression in the second-largest economy. As the country’s credit impulse has bottomed, a new wave of credit creation could be ahead to save it from financial turmoil. 

 
CRYPTOCURRENCIES/
 
end
 

Your early FRIDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results, important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs usa dollar/CLOSED DOWN AT 6.4555 

//OFFSHORE YUAN 6.4527  /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 6.87 PTS OR 0.14% 

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 252.91 PTS OR 1.03 %

2. Nikkei closed UP 176.71 PTS OR 0.56% 

3. Europe stocks  ALL MIXED

USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO  92.85/Euro RISES TO 1.1779

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +.050/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 109.99/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

3c Nikkei now JUST ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 72.423 and Brent: 745.31

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE CLOSED UP//  OFF- SHORE: UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO -.276%/Italian 10 Yr bond yield RISES to 0.73% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 0.37%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.01: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 0.81

3k Gold at $1759.40 silver at: 22.90   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 6/100 in roubles/dollar) 72.56

3m oil into the 73 dollar handle for WTI and  75 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 109.99 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9281 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 1.0932 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to 0.276%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 1.344% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 1.888%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 8.60..  VERY DEADLY

Futures On Edge As Quad-Watching Set To Wipe Out A Third Of Market Gamma

 
FRIDAY, SEP 17, 2021 – 08:04 AM

Quad-witching opex Friday has arrived, bringing with it the usual drama of gigantic gamma expiration, including $1.5trillion of SPX index,
$310bln of options on ES futs, $220bln of SPY options, $610bln of other index…

… a surge in market volumes, spike in volatility and now expected rebound in risk assetsWith over a third of market gamma set to expire today – specifically some 35% of SPX, 50% SPY, and 35% of QQQ gamma according to SpotGamma – brace for a bump ride as the absolutely gargantuan S&P pin at 4,500 is about to get much smaller, drastically reducing the market’s downside buffer.

What does this mean for markets so far? Well, overnight, stock-index futures dropped again, while European stocks erased gains as investors not only fretted about today’s quad-witch volatility, but as steady Treasury yields after strong economic data this week pointed toward more movement out of heavyweight technology stocks while next week’s FOMC meeting raised concerns about the coming taper and reduction in stimulus. Quantifying that, S&P 500 E-minis were down 11 points, or 0.25%, at 07:30 am ET; Dow E-minis were down 78 points, or 0.22%, while Nasdaq 100 E-minis were down 40 points, or 0.25%. 10-year TSY yields were slightly higher at 1.3429%, while the dollar was unchanged and cryptos dropped.

In overnight trading, FAANG stocks fell slightly in premarket trading. Losses in major tech stocks had pulled the S&P 500 lower on Thursday, after a jump in bond yields saw investors pivot into sectors most likely to benefit from an economic recovery this year. The retail sales reading came on the heels of data showing steady factory activity and a cooling in inflation, which suggested the U.S. economic recovery was resilient despite a recent rise in cases of the Delta COVID-19 variant. Here are some of the biggest movers today:

  • IronNet (IRNT US) drops 9.4% in U.S. premarket trading, paring some of its 114% rally over the past three sessions driven by retail traders; Other meme stock moves: Offerpad (OPAD US) also sinks after doubling this week, while SmileDirectClub (SDC US) rose 7.5%
  • AbCellera Biologics (ABCL US) soars 16% in premarket trading after it confirmed that the U.S. FDA expanded its emergency authorization to use a Lilly-partnered Covid-19 antibody cocktail for post-exposure prevention of infection or symptomatic disease
  • U.S. Steel (X US) dips 1.7% in premarket trading after reporting results on Thursday evening; European steel stocks traded a tad weaker alongside mining stocks, which were hurt sinking iron prices
  • Las Vegas Sands (LVS US) and Wynn Resorts (WYNN US), battered by a shift in policy in Macau, in focus after Jefferies puts out a bearish note. It cut Las Vegas Sands to hold and slashed Wynn’s PT to Street low.
  • Take-Two Interactive Software (TTWO US) slides 1.7% in premarket after it got downgraded to market perform from outperform at BMO on reduced confidence in previously Street- high earnings estimates
  • Tuesday Morning (TUEM US) rises 3.6% in premarket trading after CEO discloses share purchases on Thursday
  • Diamondback Energy (FANG US) climbs 3.7% in premarket trading after it announced a share buyback plan late on Friday
  • Shares gain about 1.8% postmarket
  • Usana Health (USNA US) fell 2.8% in postmarket trading Thursday after cutting its net sales forecast for the full year

Also overnight, China boosted its injection of short-term cash into the financial system in a sign the authorities are seeking to soothe market nerves frayed by concern over quarter-end funding needs and China Evergrande Group’s debt crisis. Still, price swings are almost certain to surge during today’s quadruple-witching session, in which a significant number of futures contracts and options expire at the same time, according to Pierre Veyret, technical analyst at ActivTrades. “Most market operators are looking towards the next Fed policy meeting due next week, which should decrease market directionality and increase volatility further,” Veyret said.

Focus now turns to a meeting of the Federal Reserve next week, with investors debating if a swathe of strong economic data this week could spur the bank into shortening its timeline for reducing monetary stimulus.

European shares faded early gains and the Stoxx 600 index traded down -0.1%, erasing a gain of as much as 0.8% as a rally in travel and retail shares was offset by a retreat for basic-resources companies after comments by a European Central Bank council member stoked inflation concerns. ECB Governing Council member Martins Kazaks said the euro area’s inflation outlook may turn out higher than currently anticipated if the coronavirus doesn’t inflict any further shocks. The region’s stabilizing economic recovery, persistent supply bottlenecks and rising expectations all point to possible faster-than-forecast price gains, he said. Maybe he finally got his electric bill?

Commerzbank gained as much as 4.9% after a report that Cerberus Capital would consider raising its stake if the German government was ready to sell its shares. Azelis SA, a distributor of food additives and specialty chemicals, surged in its Brussels trading debut after the biggest Belgian initial public offering since 2007. Anglo American fell 4.2% in London after the miner was downgraded at Morgan Stanley and UBS. European steel stocks traded a tad weaker alongside mining stocks, which were hurt sinking iron prices.

“Investors just should be prepared for the fact that returns are much more likely to be muted over the next five years than what we’ve really benefited and enjoyed over the last five,” Jim McDonald, Northern Trust Bank chief investment strategist, said on Bloomberg Television. That view incorporates the prospect of lower valuations for Chinese firms facing more government involvement, he said.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks were mixed amid the debt crisis at China Evergrande Group and a short-term cash injection by the central bank to help soothe nerves. Stocks in China and Hong Kong bounced back following four straight days of losses. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed as much as 0.4%. Technology was the best-performing sector on the gauge, led by Tencent and Alibaba Group. Stocks also gained in Japan, with the Topix halting a two-day decline. Friday’s advance helped pare the Asian benchmark’s losses this week to 1.6%. The gauge is still on course to snap a three-week rally, largely due to China-related concerns. Investors remain worried about the regulatory crackdown after Beijing targeted Macau’s casinos this week, with sentiment also hurt by weak economic data and the debt crisis at China Evergrande Group. Focus is also turning to the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting next week, with traders hoping to get more clues about the timeline for paring bond purchases.

You now you have a number of serious risks in China, especially the one around systemic risk with Evergrande,” Frank Benzimra, head of Asia equity strategy at SocGen, said on Bloomberg TV. “We see more upside on the onshore than offshore part of the market. It’s a little bit early for bottom-fishing in the internet space.”

Japanese stocks traded higher in the afternoon session, overcoming early fluctuations, with electronics makers and telecommunications providers driving gains in the Topix. The Topix rose 0.5% to 2,100.17 at the 3 p.m. Tokyo close, while the Nikkei advanced 0.6% to 30,500.05. SoftBank Group contributed the most to the Topix’s gain, increasing 1.8%. Out of 2,184 shares in the index, 1,422 rose and 644 fell, while 118 were unchanged.  More than 4 trillion yen worth of shares traded hands on the first section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange, the most since May.  Running shoes and sportswear maker Asics dropped 3.2% after local broadcaster NHK reported the Tokyo Marathon will be canceled this year due to Tokyo still being under a state of emergency. Asics is one of the sponsors for the race

In rates, yields on the benchmark 10-year notes held around levels touched yesterday, after an unexpectedly strong retail sales reading. Treasuries were steady with the curve slightly steeper, pivoting around an unchanged 7-year sector. Treasury yields remain within a basis point of Thursday’s close, trading slightly richer across long-end of the curve, marginally flattening 2s10s, 5s30s spreads; the 10-year yield at 1.3429% was near top of Thursday’s range, outperforming bunds and gilts by 2.5bp and 1bp respectively and little changed on the week. Bunds underperform over early European session, with futures contract gaining momentum after breaching Thursday’s low. 

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed even as the greenback was weaker against most of its Group-of-10 peers; commodity currencies led advances after rebounding in the Asian session. The pound was steady against the dollar, but underperformed most of its Group-of-10 peers after U.K. retail sales fell unexpectedly for a fourth month in August, the worst stretch of declines in at least 25 years. Attention turns to the Bank of England’s rate decision next week. Australia’s dollar rose against all its Group-of-10 peers as an absence of further negative news helped restore some confidence in the global recovery. New Zealand’s dollar was sold after the nation extended the suspension of a travel bubble with Australia for eight weeks, a trader said.

In commodities, oil slipped, while gold advanced. An index of commodity prices dipped, but remains in sight of a record hit in 2011, underscoring the inflation concerns rippling across the world economy.

Looking at the day ahead now, the only thing on the US calendar is the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index for September. Otherwise, central bank speakers include the ECB’s Makhlouf.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures little changed at 4,476.00
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.56% to 468.57
  • MXAP up 0.3% to 203.41
  • MXAPJ up 0.3% to 650.76
  • Nikkei up 0.6% to 30,500.05
  • Topix up 0.5% to 2,100.17
  • Hang Seng Index up 1.0% to 24,920.76
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.2% to 3,613.97
  • Sensex up 0.2% to 59,256.49
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.8% to 7,403.72
  • Kospi up 0.3% to 3,140.51
  • Brent Futures down 0.66% to $75.17/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.5% to $1,762.19
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.13% to 92.815
  • German 10Y yield rose 2bps to -0.281%
  • Euro little changed at $1.1782

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • British consumers expect inflation will remain above the Bank of England’s target for at least the next five years, a survey showed, in an indication that attitudes about rising prices are becoming entrenched
  • The Federal Reserve will probably hint at its meeting next week that it is moving toward scaling back monthly asset purchases and make a formal announcement in November, according a Bloomberg survey of economists
  • China boosted its injection of short-term cash into the financial system in a sign the authorities are seeking to soothe market nerves frayed by concern over quarter-end funding needs and China Evergrande Group’s debt crisis
  • The European Central Bank dismissed a Financial Times report that chief economist Philip Lane told analysts privately the institution expects to reach its 2% inflation target by 2025
  • “Market interest rates have relaxed in cumulative terms since our monetary policy meeting in June,” ECB Governing Council member Pablo Hernandez de Cos says. “However, this relaxation has been reversed in recent weeks, serving as a reminder that financing conditions remain highly volatile in the context of uncertainty and highly dependent on monetary policy support”
  • U.K. retail sales fell unexpectedly for a fourth month in August, the longest stretch of declines in at least 25 years, raising concerns about the economic recovery as a resurgence of coronavirus cases and supply shortages take a toll

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asian equity markets traded mixed with the region tentative ahead of several APAC market closures next week, albeit with the mood at a slight improvement from the negative bias stateside, where strong data supported taper calls approaching quad witching hour. The ASX 200 (-0.8%) underperformed with the index pressured by hefty losses in the mining-related sectors after recent declines in underlying commodity prices due to a firmer greenback and Chinese efforts to contain prices through its state reserves. The mood in Australia was also dampened by fears of a backlash from China to the recent AUKUS security pact and with M&A discussions between private equity and Iress failing to reach an agreement which resulted in double-digit percentage losses for shares in the latter. The Nikkei 225 (+0.6%) was positive and tested the 30,500 level with the index getting an uplift from a mostly weaker JPY, but with gains capped by the ongoing COVID outbreak and with the Cabinet Office lowering its overall economic assessment for the first time in four months. The Hang Seng (+1.0%) and the Shanghai Comp. (+0.2%) lacked firm commitment ahead of a four-day weekend in the mainland due to the Mid-Autumn Festival and with some brief support after the PBoC’s liquidity efforts involving a total CNY 100bln injection evenly split between 7-day and 14-day reverse repos. In addition, plenty of focus remained on China Evergrande with its shares severely hit again on default fears and reports that suggested the unlikelihood of a government bailout, although there was some reprieve to affiliate Evergrande Property Services as its shares rose around 8% which seems inconsequential compared to its near-50% decline YTD. Finally, 10yr JGBs were subdued following the spillover selling from USTs and gains in Japanese stocks, with demand also hampered by the lack of BoJ purchases in the market today with the central bank instead offering to buy JPY 75bln in 3yr-5yr corporate bonds from next Friday.

Top Asian News

  • HKEX Proposes SPAC Listing Fundraising to Be at Least HK$1b
  • China Mogul Loses $27 Billion in World’s Biggest Wealth Drop
  • Australia to Trial Home Quarantine for Vaccinated Arrivals
  • China Property, Tech Firms Stage Rebound on Bargain Hunting

Bourses in Europe has conformed to a mixed picture (Euro Stoxx 50 -0.3%; Stoxx 600 -0.3%) after failing to hold into the +1% gains seen at the open for the bellwether index, whilst Euro futures now mostly lower on Quad Witching Day. The FTSE 100 Dec contract fell under 7,000 as the Sep contract expired. US equity futures meanwhile have seen somewhat of a contained divergence before adopting a downside bias, with the RTY narrowly lagging. Back to Europe, the FTSE 100 (-0.1%) is among the straddlers in the region as the Basic Resource sector is once again under pressure – with the biggest losers in the index currently Anglo American (-3.5), Rio Tinto (-2.2%) and BHP (-1.7%) – with the former seeing a downgrade at Morgan Stanley, whilst Glencore (+0.1%) bucks the trend amid an upgrade at the bank. Euro-bourses see broad-based gains. Delving deeper into sectors, Autos and Parts are also on the backfoot amid the ongoing chip shortage. On the flip side, Travel & Leisure leads the gains with reports stating the UK travel red list could be more than halved from its current 62 for the double-jabbed, according to The Times. Turkey is tipped to be among those removed from the list. The UK Transport Minister is today expected to announce the scrapping of the amber list, thus there will only be red and green lists. In terms of individual movers, Commerzbank (+3.3%) holds onto gains after Handelsblatt reported that Cerberus is reportedly considering increasing its stake in the Co. from the current 5% mark via taking on the German state’s 15.6% interest in Commerzbank if the German state wishes to sell its holding.

Top European News

  • ECB Says FT Report on Inflation Target Outlook Not Accurate
  • U.K. Retail Sales Fall in Worst Stretch for Shops Since 1996
  • Europe’s Gas Resumes Gains on Concerns Over LNG Plants, Supply
  • How the Pandemic Left British Households $1.2 Trillion Richer

In FX, the Dollar has lost some of its retail sales vigour and Philly Fed fizz amidst signs of stabilisation in US Treasuries, both outright and from a yield curve perspective, while technical traders may also be a bit discouraged by the fact that the DXY did not quite have the legs to at least touch the psychological 93.000 mark when upside momentum was building yesterday. Hence, the index has drifted back down into a comparatively tight 92.639-760 range vs 92.965-467 extremes on Thursday and the Buck has unwound gains vs most major peers bar the Yen that is retreating closer to 110.00 again. Ahead, eyes on preliminary Michigan sentiment to see if the survey echoes upbeat regional vibes for September that kicked off with the Empire State, but also monitoring stocks over Quad Witching.

  • AUD/CAD/NZD – No surprise to see the Aussie strike while the Greenback is waning after its sharp decline on multiple factors this week (dovish RBA rate guidance, ongoing slump in iron ore, poor jobs data and heightened tensions with China), as Aud/Usd reclaims 0.7300+ status and the Aud/Nzd cross also regains some composure on the 1.0300 handle as the Kiwi lags below 0.7100 against its US counterpart in wake of a marked deterioration in NZ manufacturing PMI into contractionary territory. However, the Aussie may find further upside progress capped by decent option expiry interest at the 0.7325 strike (1 bn) or even get drawn back to similar size at the round number (1.1 bn to be precise), and the same goes for the Loonie given expiries between 1.2635-50 (1 bn) and at 1.2700 (1 bn), not to mention the loss of bullish impetus from WTI crude that is consolidating around Usd 72/brl. Nevertheless, Usd/Cad has retreated a bit further from w-t-d peaks to pivot 1.2650 between 1.2708-1.2600 parameters.
  • EUR/CHF/GBP – All marginally firmer vs the Dollar, but unconvincingly and still on course to end the week with net losses as the Euro meanders below 1.1800 and above 1.1750 where hefty option expiries reside (1.2 bn and 1.8 bn trailing down to 1.1745), the Franc straddles 0.9270 and Sterling rotates either side of 1.3800 following disappointing UK retail sales data and a pick-up in inflation expectations via the latest BoE/Kantar Attitudes Survey. Note also, Cable appears contained to an extent by technical levels in the form of the 50 and 21 DMAs that are situated at 1.3803 and 1.3780 respectively today, while Eur/Gbp is flirting with its 50 DMA at 0.8543 after rejecting or respecting 0.8500 on Thursday.
  • JPY – As noted at the outset, the Yen is underperforming having narrowly failed to breach 109.00 and Usd/Jpy now looks intent on testing resistance/offers at the big figure above pending any further repatriation for month, Q3 and Japanese half FY end or another change in chart and fundamental dynamics.
  • SCANDI/EM – The Nok does not look too fazed by the pull-back in Brent as it eyes a Norges Bank hike, but the Rub, Mxn and Zar are on a weaker footing, while the Try has fallen further in advance of September’s CBRT policy meeting as year end inflation projections rise again. Conversely, the Cnh and Cny are on an even keel into a long Chinese holiday weekend with 7 and 14 day liquidity provided by the PBoC.

In commodities, WTI and Brent front month futures have been trimming the gains seen since yesterday’s European close, with the former now threatening a breach of USD 72/bbl to the downside (vs high 72.72/bbl) and the latter just north of USD 75/bbl (vs high 72.78/bbl). News flow has been light, but prices saw crude prices saw leg lower heading into the European cash open, seemingly in tandem with NatGas prices as Europe reacted to Biden’s commentary suggesting that there is evidence that gas prices should be falling and his admin is investigating why that was not the case. Aside from that, crude price action has been dictated by the overall market mood and price action in stocks. Turning to metals, spot gold and silver consolidate following yesterdays deep declines which saw the yellow metal briefly dip under USD 1,750/oz. Base metals meanwhile nurse yesterday’s losses, with, but LME copper remains sub-USD 9,500/t. Base metals, name iron and copper, are on the watch for any retaliation by China on Australia following the AUKUS security pact.

US Event Calendar

  • 10am: Sept. U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 72.0, prior 70.3; Current Conditions, prior 78.5; Expectations, prior 65.1
  • 10am: Sept. U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation, est. 4.7%, prior 4.6%; 5-10 Yr Inflation, prior 2.9%

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overfnight wrap

If someone looks at my browser history over the last 18 hours they will see a stream of entries along the lines of “will my golf be affected if I have to have knee replacement surgery”. I’ve been quite discouraged by some of the articles but have decided to focus on the YouTube clips of 80 year olds with fake knees hitting it as far as I do now. So after having microfracture surgery yesterday I was told the hole in my knee was far bigger than was thought and that I likely have arthritis in some form and will probably need a knee replacement relatively soon. So I’m looking for inspirational stories from my readers today, who may have been through this sort of thing, preferably telling me how I can not only get back on the golf course, but actually have the chance to still get better and better. Only positive answers or lies will be read.

There are a few aching joints in markets at the moment but for now it’s mild and still heavily medicated by prior fiscal and monetary medicine. There is certainly a whiff of stagflation fears in the air though but I would stress that real-time growth is still pretty high but it’s just that expectations are coming down from even higher levels earlier in the summer. Inflation forces have remained almost exclusively firmer over this period notwithstanding a slight miss on US CPI this week at what are still very elevated levels.

Talking of inflation, there was an interesting article in the FT last night saying that the ECB expects the region to reach its 2% inflation target by 2025, which would suggest that the central bank could raise interest rates as soon as 2023. This might get a little traction today but the market will likely think that there’s a lot of water that needs to flow under the bridge before we get to 2023, let alone 2025. However, if a path to such a number does appear in their forecasts soon it will impact ECB messaging going forward which will be important to markets. The Euro rose +0.13% following the article’s release, but still fell -0.42% on the day versus the dollar, which was its worst day in nearly a month. Overnight, the ECB has rejected the accuracy of the FT report as they released a statement saying “The FT story is not accurate”, and that ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane said that he “didn’t say in any conversation with analysts that the euro area will reach 2% inflation soon after the end of the ECB’s projection horizon”.

Confusing the growth picture a little was the stronger US retail sales yesterday which brought forward a little taper risk back into the equation ahead of the Fed meeting next week. This sparked a mini sell off in US yields and left treasuries not far off where they were before the CPI miss on Tuesday.

Running through those themes in more depth, US retail sales unexpectedly rose +0.7% in August (vs. -0.7% expected), whilst the measure excluding autos also jumped +1.8% (vs. unch expected), so a solid outperformance. That said, the release wasn’t quite as strong as the headline figures suggested, since the July retail sales reading was revised down to show a larger -1.8% contraction (vs. -1.1% previously), so a bit less solid than on first inspection. Nevertheless, Treasury yields spiked higher in response, seeing an intraday peak of 1.350%, before falling back to close at 1.338%. The overall move left them up +3.9bps on the previous day, as investors moved to accelerate the likely path of future rate hikes.

The prospect of less monetary stimulus weighed on US equities yesterday with the S&P 500 falling back -0.16% (but comfortably off the lows) after moving between gains and losses for much of the session. Retailing stocks (+0.69%) and consumer services (+0.23%) outperformed on the better-than-expected retail print, while tech stocks also outperformed slightly with the NASDAQ eking out a +0.13% gain. One sector that really outpaced the market was airline stocks, which gained +1.56% – partly on news that the UK will be easing travel restrictions on at least 30 countries currently on the UK’s “red list”. European equities topped their US peers, with the STOXX 600 up +0.44% as bourses across the continent moved higher, but much of that was a catch-up to the previous day’s rally in the US, which took place shortly after the European close.

Amidst the broader selloff, commodities also lost ground for the first time this week, with Bloomberg’s Commodity Spot Index (-1.00%) moving off its high for the decade thanks to a broad decline across the asset class. One decline in particular came from European natural gas prices, which fell by a massive -10.54% as they paused for breath following their blistering run higher. That said, even that decline still leaves them up +9.21% for the week so far, so we’re hardly out of the woods yet on that front. Otherwise, oil prices just about maintained their upward momentum as Brent Crude (+0.28%) saw a moderate daily move, whilst gold (-2.25%) fell to a 1-month low as it experienced its worst daily performance since early-August.

Asian markets are mostly trading higher this morning, with the Nikkei (+0.53%), Hang Seng (+0.47%) and Kospi (+0.15%) all advancing. Chinese bourses are a bit mixed though with the CSI (+0.27%) up, whereas the Shanghai Comp (-0.59%) and Shenzhen Comp (-0.65%) have lost ground, which comes in spite of the PBoC increasing its cash injections into the financial system as risks associated with the debt crisis at the Evergrande Group are dampening sentiment. The injection totalled CNY 90bn of funds, which is the most since February. Outside of Asia, yields on 10y USTs are broadly stable along with futures on the S&P 500 (+0.01%), but those on the Stoxx 50 are up +0.56%.

In Germany, there’s now just a week on Sunday remaining until the federal election, and a fresh round of polls continue to indicate a pretty consistent lead for the centre-left SPD, with Chancellor Merkel’s CDU/CSU bloc trailing behind, and the Greens then in 3rd place. One from YouGov yesterday gave them 25%, ahead of the CDU/CSU on 20% and the Greens on 15%. Then another from Kantar put the SPD on 26%, ahead of the CDU/CSU on 20% and the Greens on 17%. And finally, another came from Infratest dimap that put the SPD on 26%, the CDU/CSU on 22%, and the Greens on 15%. These polls have been remarkably consistent over the last couple of weeks.

Elsewhere in Europe, sovereign bond yields also spiked following the US retail sales release, but they then fell back with yields on 10yr bunds (+0.4bps), OATs (-0.0bps) and BTPs (-0.8bps) all near unchanged by the end of the session. The main exception were gilts, where the short end of the curve saw yields press higher still, with those on 2yr (+2.1bps) and 5yr (+3.7bps) gilts climbing to fresh post-pandemic highs as investors continued to bring forward the timing of potential BoE rate hikes. Meanwhile, 10yr gilt yields rose +3.9bps to 0.817%, their highest level since the start of June and just over +30bps higher than its early-August lows.

Turning to the pandemic, there were further signs of a return to normality after the World Economic Forum said that they planned to return to Davos in person for their annual meeting in January. I certainly missed the uniqueness of the event last year. Separately, the UK’s ONS reported that 93.6% of adults in England were estimated to have Covid antibodies in the week ending August 29, but this was actually down four-tenths on the previous week’s peak of 94.0%. Furthermore, among those in their 70s, the decline in antibodies over recent months is now statistically significant, with the 75-79 age bracket seeing levels fall from a peak of 96.6% in late-May to 90.2% in late-August. Indicators like these can be expected to lead to further calls for boosters for those who were vaccinated some months ago. In the US, boosters could be authorised as soon as next week by federal regulators, especially for those over the age of 65 and other at-risk individuals. The FDA is meeting today to discuss Pfizer’s application for a third shot of its vaccine, with the CDC holding a two-day meeting next week on booster shots in general.

Looking at yesterday’s other data, the weekly initial jobless claims for the week through September 11 rose to 332k (vs. 322k expected), but that didn’t stop the 4-week moving average falling to 335.75k, which is its lowest level since the pandemic began. The claims number will be impacted by recent auto production shutdowns due to the worldwide chip shortage. Otherwise, the Philadelphia Fed’s business outlook for September rose to 30.7 (vs. 19.0 expected).

To the day ahead now, and data highlights include UK retail sales for August, the final Euro Area CPI reading for August, and the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index for September. Otherwise, central bank speakers include the ECB’s Makhlouf.

end

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)WEDNESDAY MORNING/TUESDAY  NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 6.87  PTS  OR 0.14%   //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 252.91 PTS OR 1.03%      /The Nikkei closed UP 176,71 PTS OR 0.56%   //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.73%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP TO 6.4555  /Oil UP TO 70.69 dollars per barrel for WTI and 73.89 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MIXED   /ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED  UP AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.4555. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.4527/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%/

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

/NORTH KOREA//SOUTH KOREA

 
end

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

JAPAN/COVID/

 
 
 

3 C CHINA

CHINA/AUSTRALIA/USA/UK

Beijing fumes over new USA led arms pact as Australia binds with England to build nuclear subs. Canada and New Zealand left out of the equation

(zerohedge)

Beijing Fumes Over New US-Led Arms Pact: Australia Aspiring To Be “Enemy Of China” & “Anti-China Superpower”

 
THURSDAY, SEP 16, 2021 – 12:00 PM

Following Wednesday night’s major announcement by President Joe Biden, Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison and UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson unveiling a new strategic security partnership among the three countries focused on defense technology sharing, particularly which will allow Australia to develop nuclear submarines, China was quick to blast the pact as an assault on regional peace and stability which will unleash a dangerous new “arms race”.

China wasn’t specifically invoked in any of the leaders’ remarks, but the pact known as AUKUS, (an acronym for Australia, United Kingdom and the US) is being widely interpreted as part of Washington efforts to thwart China and its influence in the Indo-Pacific region. Beijing certainly sees it this way, given on Thursday Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian condemned the partnership as it “greatly undermines regional peace and stability, aggravates the arms race and hurts the international non-proliferation efforts.”

Further questioning past Australian statements on nuclear nonproliferation and its longtime commitment to not acquire any nuclear arms, the foreign ministry spokesman charged the US and UK with “using nuclear exports as geopolitical gaming tool and applying double standards.” He also echoed prior accusations that the US is fueling an “arms race” amid heightened tensions in the Asian-Pacific region.

In addition to nuclear-power submarine development, other key sharing areas are to include artificial intelligence, cyber, underwater systems and long-range strike capabilities. Again this is being widely interpreted as a move to keep regional US ally Australia from falling significantly behind China’s huge recent leaps in military technology, which has included hypersonic missile development of late. 

One Biden administration official told reporters at a briefing on Wednesday: “This partnership is not aimed, or about any one country, it’s about advancing our strategic interests, upholding the international rules based order and promoting peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific.” The official added: “This is about a larger effort to sustain the fabric of engagement and deterrence in the Indo-Pacific.” This is as close as the administration has come to offering a ‘counter-China’ rationale behind the pact.

But Chinese state media is also alongside officials in Beijing interpreting the AUKUS as aimed precisely at China and its security interests in the region, which has included expansive claims in the East and South China Seas.

The outspoken editor of the Communist Party mouthpiece publication Global Times Hu Xijin bluntly stated that Australia is fast moving in the direction of becoming an official “enemy of China”…

Congratulations Australia, you are becoming an “anti-China superpower,” the state media pundit said.

Meanwhile, the deal will eventually allow Australia to become one of the very few countries in the world to operate nuclear submarines. One a former Australian intelligence officer who is now a defense analyst at Australian National University told Bloomberg“This is the biggest surprise in Australian geopolitics in decades.” 

The security analyst John Blaxland, said additionally that “The subs deal shows the US now sees the utility of bolstering Australia’s capabilities to complement its own in a way it never did before.”

Likely not wishing to join Australia in coming to within Beijing’s crosshairs over the provocative and controversial deal, New Zealand has reiterated its longtime police of banning nuclear-powered vessels from its waters. 

France is also not happy with the deal among the trio of countries, saying it’s been “stabbed in the back”

“Certainly they couldn’t come into our internal waters. No vessels that are partially or fully powered by nuclear energy is able to enter our internal borders,” New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said Thursday in reference to the country’s 1984 “nuclear-free zone policy”.

 

END

CHINA//ECONOMY/EVERGRANDE

Evergrande suspends trading in all bonds

(zerohedge)

Evergrande Suspends Trading In All Bonds

 
THURSDAY, SEP 16, 2021 – 08:11 AM

Earlier today we pointed out that in what can (obviously) only be a remarkable coincidence, China’s largest, and most systematically important real estate developer, China Evergrande (and its $300+ billion in debt), collapsed on the 13th anniversary of Lehman’s bankruptcy filing, when Beijing told Evergrande’s creditor banks that the insolvent company, which recently hired Houlihan Lokey as bankruptcy advisor, would not pay interest on its debt next week, nor would it repay principal, in effect blessing the coming default.

And yet there was some trace of hope, because as Forte Securities trader Keith Temperton said “The Asian banks will get hit hard if there’s a default, but then there will be a 10-year recovery process. The market’s getting a hang of it. The way they’ve managed the news flow seems quite clever. They haven’t let a swathe of bad news at once” giving investors and creditors some hope that the money could still miraculously reappear.

Not any more: in an exchange filing on Thursday, Evergrande’s main unit (onshore real estate) said that trading in all of its onshore bonds would be suspended on Sept 16 to ensure fair information disclosure following a downgrade to A from AA (which in China is viewed as the lowest investment grade rating) by China Chengxin International, to wit:

In order to ensure fair information disclosure and protect the interests of investors, after the company’s application, all existing corporate bonds of Evergrande Real Estate will be suspended for one trading day from the opening of the market on September 16, 2021, and will be opened on September 17, 2021.

Since the market resumes trading, the above-mentioned bond trading methods will be adjusted from the date of resumption of trading. Among them: (1) The trading methods of “15 Evergrande 03”, “19 Evergrande 01”, and “19 Evergrande 02” have been adjusted to only adopt quotation, inquiry and agreement trading methods since the date of resumption of trading. Shanghai Branch of Registration and Settlement Co., Ltd. provides settlement by transaction; (2) “20 Evergrande 01”, “20 Evergrande 02”, “20 Evergrande 03”, “20 Evergrande 04”, “20 Evergrande 05” The trading methods of “21 Evergrande 01” and “21 Evergrande 01” have been adjusted to only adopt the negotiated block trading method since the resumption of trading, and the original net price pricing method will be maintained.

The press release ends with the hilarious “Investors are kindly requested to pay attention to investment risks.” Well… we sure can be certain they are paying attention now.

It wasn’t clear why the company would need to suspend trading in all bonds for an entire day to “ensure” that everyone was aware that the company’s bonds were no longer rated as investment grade in China (they should be rated as default but we’ll cross that bridge in time) when just a simple press release would suffice.

Instead, what the company did say is that the bonds would resume trading on Sept. 17, and the trading method for some of the securities will change to only allow block trades even as the previous pricing method will remain.

Despite the company’s promise that its bonds will resume trading, we somehow doubt it and instead we expect that in the coming months, the frozen bonds will be equitized as part of China’s largest ever debt for equity exchange. Come to think of it, the rest of the market doesn’t believe it either with Evergrande stock plunging another 7% (Zeno’s paradox means the company can keep falling at double digits every day in perpetuity) and as of Thursday Evergrande’s only traded security was at the lowest price since Oct 2011, on its way to 0.

Meanwhile, as the book on Evergrande’s story closes, the company’s imminent default and the sudden collapse in China’s property market which as we noted last night saw a 90% crash in land sales values in August…

… have led to a dire outlook for the nation’s developers and their creditors. As Bloomberg’s Richard Frost writes, Country Garden, the nation’s largest developer by sales, plunged 16% in the past two days, while Gemdale slumped 12% as a  gauge of property shares in Shanghai tumbled almost 5% in the period, with valuations firmly below book value. Following the news, Guangzhou R&F Properties drops 10.8% to the lowest since Dec. 2008 while Greentown China -9.1%. At this point, one can safely call it a crisis.

As contagion spread, risk is also hitting banks whose shares are suffering their fastest selloff in seven weeks. Furthermore, as discussed yesterday ahead of the coming Evergrande debt crisis, lenders in China are accepting the highest rates in four years to swap their dollars for yuan, a sign they may be preparing for what Mizuho calls a “liquidity squeeze in crisis mode.”

The pain will only get worse. China’s government is unlikely to ease up on its tough curbs toward the property market given its current priorities of promoting common prosperity and deterring excessive risk-taking, according to Macquarie. The property sector will be a “main growth headwind” for next year, although policy makers may loosen restrictions to defend 5% GDP expansion, Macquarie analysts wrote in a Wednesday note.

Adding to the pain, contagion concerns from Evergrande is making it more difficult for Chinese developers to refinance, despite a “critical” need to do so, according to Citigroup. Bond issuance is trickier onshore due to lower demand, and offshore due to increasing costs, they wrote in a Wednesday note. As we showed earlier this week, yields on China’s high-yield dollar have exploded rose to 13.7%, the highest since last year’s March market meltdown.

Finally, always last to the party, the rating agencies chimed in, with Fitch saying that smaller banks exposed to Evergrande or other weaker developers may face “significant” increases in non-performing loans in the event of a default, while S&P downgraded Evergrande deeper into junk, saying the developer’s liquidity and funding access “are shrinking severely.”  

end

China braces for nightmare scenario as Evergrande offers totally broke investors discounted apartments

(zerohedge)

China Braces For “Nightmare Scenario” As Evergrande Offers Broke Investors Discounted Apartments

 
 
THURSDAY, SEP 16, 2021 – 06:30 PM

Up until now the collapse of China’s Evergrande was very much a slow motion affair, captured perhaps best by Forte Securities trader Keith Temperton who said that “the Asian banks will get hit hard if there’s a default, but then there will be a 10-year recovery process. The market’s getting a hang of it. The way they’ve managed the news flow seems quite clever. They haven’t let a swathe of bad news at once.” But while Beijing was indeed successful in extending the period of collapse as long as possible, now that Evergrande is effectively insolvent and having suspended its bonds from trading we have finally gotten to the endgame and the realization that hundreds of billions in capital (Evergrande’s total debt was just over $300 billion) is gone for ever.

This realization has already prompted angry protesters at China Evergrande Group offices across the country as the developer has fallen further behind on promises to more than 70,000 investors. Construction of unfinished properties with enough floor space to cover three-fourths of Manhattan grinds to a halt, leaving more than a million homebuyers in limbo.

In an effort to appease its angry (and very soon, poor) stakeholders, Evergrande plans to let consumers and staff bid on discounted properties this month to repay them for billions in overdue investment products as the embattled developer seeks to preserve cash, according to people familiar with the matter.

According to Bloombergthe company will organize an online property event by Sept. 30 for investors who opt for discounted real estate in lieu of cash, said two employees who were briefed on an internal call Thursday and asked not to be identified. The world’s most-indebted property developer is pushing the discounted real estate as the preferred of three options for angry investors seeking repayments.

The high-yield “shadow bank” products paying as much as 13% a year have become a lightning rod for cash-strapped Evergrande, with investors and staff protesting losses and delayed payments from investments that were marketed as safe. Indeed, demonstrations that are breaking out across China could sway any bailout decisions by the government, which places a high priority on social stability, although it’s likely too late for that.

More than 70,000 people bought the products, including many Evergrande employees, Bloomberg reported earlier, citing an executive of Evergrande’s wealth division. And with about 40 billion yuan ($6.2 billion) of them are now due according to Caixin, there is about to be a whole lot of angry investors, who will not be swayed by the company’s hail mary plan to offer steep discounts on property assets. Investors can invest in residential housing units at a 28% discount, offices at a 46% discount and stores and parking units at 52%. Discounted rates can’t be lower than price floors designated by local governments. The property discounts are a voluntary repayment option, according to the briefing.

And while we wait to see what the acceptance rate on this bizarre debt-for-apartments exchange offer will be, the reality of the absurd situation is finally seeping in and is pummeling China’s already shaky real estate market, where new land sales just crashed by 90% in August…

… in the process squeezing other developers and rippling through a supply chain that accounts for more than a quarter of Chinese economic output. And as fear of contagion and exposure to Evergrande has finally emerged, credit-market stress spreads from lower-rated property companies to stronger peers and banks as global investors who bought $527 billion of Chinese stocks and bonds in the 15 months through June begin to sell.

This, in turn, brings us to China’s nightmare scenario: an uncontrolled bankruptcy which escalates into an all out economic crash.

As Bloomberg notes, it’s impossible to know for sure what would happen if Beijing allows Evergrande’s downward spiral to continue unabated, but China watchers are already mapping out worst-case scenarios as they contemplate how much pain the Communist Party is willing to tolerate. Pressure to intervene is growing as signs of financial contagion increase and as more and more popular anger builds.

“As a systemically important developer, an Evergrande bankruptcy would cause problems for the entire property sector,” said Shen Meng, director at Beijing investment bank Chanson & Co. “Debt recovery efforts by creditors would lead to fire sales of assets and hit housing prices. Profit margins across the supply chain would be squeezed. It would also lead to panic selling in capital markets.”

Evergrande had 1.3 trillion yuan ($202 billion) in presale liabilities at the end of June, equivalent to about 1.4 million individual properties that it has committed to complete, according to a Capital Economics report last week. “If Evergrande had to dump its inventory onto the market” it would “drag down property prices substantially,” said Hao Hong, chief strategist at Bocom International.

Such an outcome would be catastrophic for China’s economy, where real estate represents 70% of household net worth, but absent a full-blown bailout by Beijing which would appear as glaring weakness coming so late into the process, it is unclear what other alternatives are viable even if Shen, and virtually all other analysts and investors discussing Evergrande say Beijing is in no mood for a Lehman moment. Instead, rather than allow a chaotic collapse into bankruptcy, they predict regulators will engineer a restructuring of Evergrande’s $300 billion pile of liabilities that keeps systemic risk to a minimum.

While markets seem to agree with the Shanghai Composite Index less than 3% from a six-year high and the yuan is near the strongest level in three months against the dollar, it is unclear just how Beijing – which did not allow corporate debt restructurings until a few years ago – will oversee a bankruptcy process that would be substantially bigger and more complicated than that of Lehman brothers.

Even Bloomberg agrees that “a benign outcome is far from assured” and reminds us of Beijing’s bungled stock-market rescue in 2015 which showed how difficult it can be for central planning policymakers to control financial outcomes, even in a system where the government runs most of the banks and can exert outsized pressure on creditors, suppliers and other counterparties.

And while equities continue to exist in a world of their own where nothing can go wrong, some parts of the market are starting to crask amid the surge in contagion risk: as noted in recent days, Chinese junk-bond yields jumped to an 18-month high and shares of real estate companies plunged after Evergrande had its credit rating downgraded and requested a trading halt in its onshore bonds. Furthermore, ahead of what many fear could become a cascading liquidity crisis, banks in China are hoarding yuan at the highest cost in almost four years, a sign they may be preparing for what a Mizuho Financial Group Inc. strategist called a “liquidity squeeze in crisis mode.”

With so much unclear, where Xi will ultimately draw the line to contain the fallout remains a mystery. While China’s top financial regulator has urged billionaire Evergrande founder Hui Ka Yan to solve his company’s debt problems, authorities have yet to spell out how they envision him backstopping hundreds of billions in liabilities, and even whether the government would allow a major debt restructuring or bankruptcy. Adding to the China’s recent deleveraging campaign would lose credibility

Even senior officials at state-owned banks have told Bloomberg that they’re confused and still waiting for guidance on a long-term solution from top leaders in Beijing. Evergrande’s main banks were told by China’s housing ministry this week that the developer won’t be able to make interest payments due Sept. 20.

To be sure, China’s government isn’t averse to nationalizing failed private companies: in 2019, Beijing seized Baoshang Bank and assumed control of HNA Group, the once-sprawling conglomerate in early 2020 after the coronavirus pandemic decimated the company’s main travel business. Court-led restructurings have also become more common in recent years, with more than 700 being completed in 2020.

Ultimately, rhe Evergrande endgame will depend largely on how Xi balances his goals of maintaining social and financial stability against his multi-year campaign to reduce moral hazard (spoiler alert: in a country of 1.4 billion people preventing social unrest will always win over moral hazard). Then again, the timing is particularly tricky as China juggles an economic slowdown, a sweeping crackdown on the private sector and rising tensions with Washington – all in the runup to a once-in-five-year leadership reshuffle in 2022 at which Xi is set to extend his indefinite rule.

So while some sort of rescue is likely, “the government has to be very, very careful in balancing support for Evergrande,” said Yu Yong, a former China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission regulator and now chief risk officer at China Agriculture Reinsurance Fund.

“Property is the biggest bubble that everyone has been talking about in China,” Yu told Everbright Sun Hung Kai analyst Jonas Short in a recent podcast. “So if anything happens, this could clearly cause systematic risk to the whole China economy.”

Courtesy of Bloomberg, here are some of the factors that may sway Chinese leaders:

Social Unrest – Maintaining social order has always been a key priority for the Communist Party, which has no tolerance for protests of any kind. In Guangzhou, homebuyers surrounded a local housing bureau last week to demand Evergrande restart stalled construction. Disgruntled retail investors have gathered at the company’s Shenzhen headquarters for at least three straight days this week, and videos of protests against the developer in other parts of China have been shared widely online (see video above). Without a social safety net and with limited places to put their money, Chinese savers have for years been encouraged to buy homes whose prices were only ever supposed to go up (similar to the US before 2007 when even idiots like Ben Bernanke said that the US housing market never goes down). Today, buying a house (or two) is a cultural touchstone. While housing affordability has become a hot topic in the West, many Chinese are more likely to protest falling home prices than spiking ones.

“Given that the bulk of people’s wealth is already in property, even a 10% correction would be a serious knock to many people,” said Fraser Howie, an independent analyst and co-author of books on Chinese finance who has been following the country’s corporate sector for decades. “It would certainly knock their hopes and dreams and expectations about what property is.”

Shadow banksAnother potential flashpoint is whether Evergrande can repay high-yield wealth management products that it sold to thousands of retail investors, including many of its own employees. About 40 billion yuan of the WMPs are due to be repaid, according to Caixin, a Chinese financial news service. Evergrande is trying to free up cash by selling assets, including stakes in its electric-car and property-management businesses, but has so far made little progress.

Capital MarketsEvergrande is the largest high-yield dollar bond issuer in China, accounting for 16% of outstanding notes, according to Bank of America. Should the company collapse, that alone would push the default rate on the country’s junk dollar bond market to 14% from 3%. While Beijing has become more comfortable with allowing weaker businesses to fail, an uncontrolled spike in offshore funding costs would risk derailing a key source of financing. It could also undermine global confidence in the country’s issuers at a time when Beijing is pushing for larger foreign investor ownership. Yields on China’s junk dollar bonds are nearing 14%, up from about 7.4% in February, according to a Bloomberg index, largely due to the crash in Evergrande debt.

The stakes are even higher on the mainland, where the yuan-denominated credit market is about 15 times the size at $12 trillion. While Evergrande is less of a whale onshore, a collapse could force banks to cut their holdings of corporate notes and even freeze money markets, the plumbing of China’s financial system. In such a credit crunch, the government or central bank would be forced to act. Banks involved in property lending may come under pressure, leading to an increase in soured loans. Smaller banks exposed to Evergrande or other weaker developers may face “significant” increases in non-performing loans in the event of a default, according to Fitch Ratings.

Economic ImpactConcern over Evergrande comes at a time when China’s economy is slowing sharply. Aggressive controls to curb outbreaks of Covid-19 are hurting retail spending and travel, while measures to cool property prices are taking a toll. Data this week showed home sales by value slumped 20% in August from a year earlier, the biggest drop since the onset of the coronavirus early last year. Responding to a question on Evergrande’s potential impact on the economy, National Bureau of Statistics spokesman Fu Linghui said some large property enterprises are running into difficulties and the fallout “remains to be seen.”

China’s current priorities of promoting “common prosperity” and deterring excessive risk-taking mean there’s unlikely to be any easing of property curbs this year, according to Macquarie Group Ltd. The sector will be a “main growth headwind” for next year, although policy makers may loosen restrictions to defend growth goals, Macquarie analysts wrote in a Wednesday note.

A crash in China’s property market would not only slow the domestic economy but have global consequences too.

“A significant slowdown in property construction over the next few years appears probable already, and would become even more likely in the event of an Evergrande failure or bankruptcy,” said Logan Wright, a Hong Kong-based director at research firm Rhodium Group LLC. “A long-term slowdown in property construction, an industry that represents around a fifth or a quarter of China’s economy by most estimates, would cause a significant decline in GDP growth, commodity demand, and would likely have disinflationary effects globally.”

* * *

The bottom line is that while stocks stubbornly refuse to reflect the huge risks faced by China in the coming days when Evergrande’s fate will be revealed, the reality is that a nightmare scenario – one which is all but assured absent a full-scale bailout by Beijing – would lead not only to a Chinese financial crisis and economic crisis, but to a global stagflationary depression because unlike the global financial crisis when it was China that dragged the world out of the depth of the crisis, this time it will be China responsible for the collapse and as much as they may try, developed nations simply do not have the horsepower to pull the world out of the coming chasm.

end

Enraged Evergrande investors go full tilt on pitchforks as they hold management hostage in company offices

(zerohedge)

Enraged Evergrande Investors Go Full Pitchfork, Hold Management Hostage In Company Offices

 
 
THURSDAY, SEP 16, 2021 – 09:50 PM

As the collapse of Evergrande reverberates throughout the Chinese economy, pissed off retail investors have gone from storming the company’s headquarters to taking management hostage,according to the Straits Times, citing posts ‘making the rounds’ on social media.

What we know so far: over 70,000 retail investors forked over vast sums of money, in some cases their entire life savings, after the country’s second largest, ‘too big to fail’ property developer wooed them with promises of 10%+ annual returns. And while the company most likely is TBTF (as you can read in gory detail here, although Beijing has yet to make an official proclamation), these anxious retail investors may be in more of an “Alive” situation than a Sully Sullenberger landing when it comes to resolving this mess.

“Alive” (1993)

After accumulating some 1.97 trillion yuan (US$410 billion) in liabilities, the company – which became the country’s largest high-yield dollar bond issuer (16% of all outstanding notes) – sparked protests across the country earlier this week after announcing they were forced to delay payments on up to 40 billion yuan in wealth management products.

As we noted earlier Thursday, in an effort to appease its angry (and very soon, poor) stakeholders, Evergrande plans to let consumers and staff bid on discounted apartments this month as compensation for billions in overdue investment products as the embattled developer seeks to preserve cash, according to people familiar with the matter.

According to Bloombergthe company will organize an online property event by Sept. 30 for investors who opt for  real estate in lieu of cash. The world’s most-indebted property developer is pushing the discounted real estate as the preferred of three options for angry investors seeking repayments.

The plan, it would appear, did not go off quite as planned: in response, nearly 100 investors stormed Evergrande’s headquarters to demand their money back.

And while we believe Evergrande’s chaotic, freefall default poses such a catastrophic risk to the Chinese economy (a nightmare scenario echoed in graphic detail by Bloomberg) thata rescue will materialize, enraged retail investors now squatting at the company’s headquarters claim to be holding management hostage in their offices, according to the Straits Times.

I have with me Nanchang’s top Evergrande representative surnamed Chen,” said WeChat user Yang Qiwen, referring to the city in Jiangxi province in south-eastern China, in a post accompanied by a photo of a man lying on the floor.

He can’t leave the office. There are more than 300 of us (investors) stopping him,” Yang added on one of at least three WeChat groups discussing the company’s dire straits.

Photos posted by a WeChat user who claims to have held hostage Nanchang’s top Evergrande representative.PHOTOS: WECHAT GROUPS

Evergrande has more than 700 projects across 223 cities – most of which lie in the country’s less developed regions – and has committed to complete some 1.4 million properties by the end of June, according to the Times. Last week, over 100 people who had bought homes with Evergrande staged a protest in Guangzhou after construction stalled on the projects.

On Wednesday, state media Global Times sought to restore investor confidence, calling the company’s liquidity problems an “isolated incident,” and insisting that Evergrande’s debt crisis will “not affect China’s efforts to strengthen regulation of the housing market to prevent major financial risks and ensure sustainable development.”

As the Times further notes, however, Beijing has yet to make an official statement on what actions will be taken.

END

China injects huge liquidity to stem Evergrande panic

(zerohedge)

China Injects Most Liquidity Since February To Stem Evergrande Panic

 
FRIDAY, SEP 17, 2021 – 09:25 AM

With China finally realizing that it has drunkenly staggered into its own Lehman moment, complacently ignoring the risks until now amid hopes that Beijing would step in and make everything wonderful and instead Evergrande management finding itself held hostage in company offices by furious wealth product investors who just got the memo that the money is all gone, overnight Beijing finally showed the first signs of cracking when the stingy PBOC- which until now had merely been rolling existing liquidity keeping the overall total unchanged – injected the most cash cash into its banking system since February, in a clear sign authorities are seeking to avert the funding squeeze amid the intensifying debt crisis at China Evergrande which earlier this week sent funding conditions to the tightest levels in 4 years.

The People’s Bank of China added 90 billion yuan ($14 billion) of funds on a net basis through 50 billion in seven-day and 50 billion in 14-day reverse repurchase agreements on Friday offsetting 10 billion in maturities, the biggest one-day injection since February; it marked the first time this month it added more than 10 billion yuan short-term liquidity into the banking system on a single day.

While Evergrande’s insolvency is clearly the big catalyst, not helping the funding stress is a seasonal spike in demand for cash as banks are hesitant to lend toward the end of the quarter ahead of regulatory checks. Liquidity also tends to diminish at this time of year ahead of a one-week holiday at the start of October.

“Avoiding a systemic liquidity squeeze is the absolute priority for the PBOC and it has means to do so,” SocGen economists led by Wei Yao wrote in a research note.  “A Lehman-style financial-market meltdown is not our top concern, but an extended and severe economic slowdown seems more probable.”

We bet to differ: we understand that SocGen would want to maintain its China business, and as such describing what is going on there as a “Lehman event” would surely close the doors for future business, which is why one has to read between the lines, and the message there is catastrophic as we explained last night.

It’s also why despite the one-time liquidity boost, the PBOC is still keeping the bulk of its powder dry, and the central bank has yet to push money-market and overall interest rates lower. However, it’s just a matter of when, not if and the market knows it, which is why it has started to tighten monetary conditions ahead of the PBOC’s intervention, by sending the seven-day repo rate, an indicator for interbank borrowing costs, higher by 14 basis points to 2.4% on Friday, the highest since June 30.

In many ways, China’s hands are tied because in addition to (N)evergrande, the broader economy is already seeing the wheels come off as strict movement controls put in place to curb Covid-19 outbreaks have hammered retail spending and travel, while steps to cool property prices have sent property sales plunging. On Wednesday, the country reported a sharper-than-expected slowdown in retail sales in August, along with weaker growth in industrial production and fixed-asset investment. Meanwhile, new property sales collapsed by 90%!

“It’s fair to say that the Evergrande situation and its repercussions on the broader property market will have a far greater direct impact on Chinese growth than any of the other regulatory crackdowns,” said Alvin Tan, head of Asia foreign-exchange strategy at Royal Bank of Canada in Hong Kong. “I would not be surprised that the PBOC is acting to contain the fallout in the money markets.”

As discussed last night, the confusion over the Evergrande is endgame has prompted China experts to game out potential worst-case scenarios – including a “nightmare” chaotic bankruptcy one – as they contemplate how much pain the Communist Party is willing to tolerate.

Of course, in China where social stability is paramount, investors realize that they need to generate just enough disconent for Beijing to step in, and sure enough as signs of financial contagion increase and as the tens of thousands of angry protesters take to the streets to either besiege Evergrande offices or take management hostage, the pressure to intervene gets higher by the day.

Should Beijing turn a cold shoulder and should a worst case scenario materialize, numerous industries would be exposed to credit risks in a “freefall” Evergrande default, Fitch Ratings warned. It said smaller banks and vulnerable developers would be hurt the most.

But with more than $300 billion in liabilities, Evergrande’s liquidity stress is stoking worries over the broader Chinese property industry. Both Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs slashed forecasts for the industry citing the potential of an Evergrande default to roil its suppliers, other developers and financial markets.

As Bloomberg notes, much hinges on how big the real-world impact winds up being on the wider property sector, where some 70% of Chinese household net worth is parked. A crisis there would inevitably lead to a Chinese depression. Meanwhile, risks are growing that consumers could retrench further as the company falls behind on promised construction work and faces repayments on wealth management products sold to individuals.

END

This is big!!  Chinese junk bond yields now hit 11%

(zerohedge)

Harbin, We Have A Problem: Chinese Junk Bond Yields Hit 11 Year High

 
FRIDAY, SEP 17, 2021 – 12:25 PM

Back in March 2020, when China’s junk bond yields doubled effectively overnight from 7% to 14%, the catalyst was the unprecedented lockdown of China’s economy in response to the covid pandemic, which credit investors speculated could lead to a tidal wave of defaults but Beijing’s aggressive response which culminated with trillions in new debt injected into the economy, ended up being a tempest in a teapot and over the next few months, China’s junk bond yields gradually faded back to normal.

Fast forward to today when after weeks of tentatively creeping higher, China’s junk bond yields not just surged higher overnight, but have just surpassed the 2020 highs, printing 14.34% overnight, and the highest level since the great repo rate crisis of 2011.

Well, in a word – and the only word that matters – it’s Evergrande, and while contagion is clearly present (finally, as investors realize that the $300 billion creditor is about to default) it really is mostly Evergrande. Consider the following stunning facts:

Evergrande is the largest high-yield dollar bond issuer in China, accounting for 16% of outstanding notes, according to Bank of America. Should the company collapse, that alone would push the default rate on the country’s junk dollar bond market to 14% from 3%.

It’s not just the dollar bond market: the stakes are even higher on the mainland, where as Bloomberg calculates, the yuan-denominated credit market is about 15 times the size at $12 trillion. While Evergrande is less of a whale onshore, a collapse would force banks to cut their holdings of corporate notes and even freeze money markets, the plumbing of China’s financial system. We are already seeing signs of that with China’s 7-day repo rate which spiked to the highest since June, forcing the PBOC to inject the most liquidity, some 90BN yuan, overnight – the most since February.

If the Evergrande spillover leads to a freeze in the interbank market, the government or central bank would be forced to act, an outcome which Evergrande’s investors are desperately hoping for as it is the only hope they have of recouping some of the money. Banks involved in property lending may come under pressure, leading to an increase in soured loans. Smaller banks exposed to Evergrande or other weaker developers may face “significant” increases in non-performing loans in the event of a default, according to Fitch Ratings.

Which brings up another point: in a world where 85% of US junk bonds now have a negative real rate

… and where there is virtually no real yield to be found across the entire USD-denominated credit spectrum, yield-starved investors should be sprinting into China, to buy their 14% junk bonds.

Why aren’t they? Simple: unlike in the west where they know central banks will bail them out, a rather socialist approach to what once were “capital markets” but are now “capital Marxists, in China they have no such guarantees, which is actually rather ironic – for all its “socialist characteristics”, China may be the only place where true market capitalism – where failure means failure, if not for state-backed companies of course – can still be found.

Unbelievable:  China joins CPTPP  (Trans Pacific Partnership) which, believe it or not, was meant to counter China’s moves in the Pacific area.

China Applies To Join CPTPP Trade Pact – Boasts Its Leadership Will Leave US “Increasingly Isolated”

 
THURSDAY, SEP 16, 2021 – 10:50 PM

In a hugely symbolic move sure to have lasting consequences for any future Washington efforts to isolate Beijing, China has filed an application to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), the country’s commerce ministry announced Thursday. 

The Pacific trade pact involves Japan, Australia, Malaysia, New Zealand and others among 11 total countries, which began in 2018 – though previous to that it was known as the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and ironically was long deemed a crucial economic counterweight to China’s regional influence. Britain is currently also in negotiations to joint by the end of 2022, London confirmed this summer.

Image source: Reuters

During the Obama administration, the US had framed it as a trade bloc for countering China’s influence, arguing that the US should be the spearhead of regional rules of trade. Trump had later pulled out of the deal in 2017. TheCPTPP subsequently replaced the TPP, with Japan leading the revised pact.

Without doubt some US officials and Congressional China hawks are expected to push back with regional allies against the prospect of China’s joining. Reuters and Bloomberg confirmed the application on Thursday, detailing that “China submitted the formal application letter to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) to New Zealand, according to a statement late on Thursday (Spet 16) in Beijing.” 

China state-run media hailed the application as affirming China’s leading role in global trade and success in resisting Washington pressures. For example Communist Party mouthpiece Global Times had this to say in a Thursday op-ed just hours after the announcement:

The late-night announcement aims to cement China’s leadership role in global trade, while piling pressure on the US that has thus far stayed away from rejoining the revised version of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), a regional trade pact initiated by the US under former President Barack Obama that was widely believed to be aimed at containing China’s rise, experts said. 

GT took further swipes, suggesting China represents multilateralism in the face of Washington bullying as follows:

China is hoping for the CPTPP to put global trade and economic cooperation back on track, underscoring the need for multilateralism, thereby reviving both the Chinese economy and the global economy in the post-COVID-19 era.

More importantly, watchers of international affairs stressed that China’s latest step that is set to steady its partnership with CPTPP members, would inevitably subject the US to what could be overwhelming pressure.

Meanwhile, Beijing continues to denounce those in the West who seek “ideological confrontation”…

Further the official publication said, “The US’ changed course on trade policy has remained in place even after Trump’s successor Joe Biden broke with Trump’s unruly go-it-alone mentality in foreign policy, rejoining the Paris climate change agreement and becoming a member of the World Health Organization once again.”

Among the major hurdles in entry negotiations will include the ongoing China-Australia trade dispute which has seen aggressive China-leveled tariffs effectively block billions of dollars in Aussie exports to its number one trading partner, a devastating blow to Australian industries including wine-producers, meat, barely and other commodities. 

end

Mainland China vs Taiwan

China Sends 10 Jets Into Taiwan’s Airspace In 15th Breach This Month Alone

 
FRIDAY, SEP 17, 2021 – 04:40 PM

Taipei’s Defense Ministry has confirmed that ten Chinese military aircraft breached Taiwan’s air defense identification zone (ADIZ) on Friday, which comes at the end of a week that Taiwan’s military conducted extensive drills simulating a Chinese attack on the island

The defense ministry identified two Y-8 fighters, a pair of J-11s, as well as six J-16 jets which made the incursion. According to Bloomberg, citing a ministry statement, “Taiwanese patrol issued radio warnings and deployed air defense missile systems to monitor the activity.”

Such incursions appear to be coming more frequently in the past weeks, and Beijing likely is sending a ‘message’ to the self-declared autonomous island following the major anti-China military exercises. Friday’s incursion marks the 15th such breach so far this month alone, which means the hostile flights have been made on a daily basis.

Getty Images

As The Guardian detailed, the war drills simulated a scenario in which China attacks its vulnerable airbases and airports first. The exercise was geared toward a response after which the airbases were already crippled

Taiwanese fighter jets landed on a makeshift runway on a road on Wednesday as annual drills reached their peak, practising skills that would be needed in the event of an attack by China.

In exercises overseen by President Tsai Ing-wen, three aircraft – an F-16, French-made Mirage and a Ching-kuo Indigenous Defence Fighter plus an E-2 Hawk-Eye early warning aircraft – landed in rural southern Pingtung county on a road specially designed to be straight and flat for rapid conversion into a runway.

All of this also comes after at the start the week China furiously lashed out over reports the US is “seriously considering” allowing the Taiwanese government to rename its representative office in Washington to include the word “Taiwan”.

Taipei also just announced approval of $9 billion more in military spending in order to counter threats from the mainland. Biden has signaled he plans to continue to Trump policy of large weapons transfers to the island.

A follow-up state-run Global Times op-ed published Monday then made some serious threats in terms of what would happen if Washington were to allow the name change. GT often articulates the current thinking of top Communist Party officials, and it made the following threats:

Sending PLA fighter jets over the island of Taiwan is a step we must take. The move will pose a fundamental warning to the Taiwan authorities and bring about reconstruction of the situation across the Taiwan Straits. It will be a clear declaration of China’s sovereignty over Taiwan island, and create unprecedented conditions for us to further implement this sovereignty.

The “airspace” over the Taiwan island belongs to the airspace of China. The so-called middle line of the Taiwan Straits has never been recognized by the Chinese mainland. Therefore, there is sufficient legal basis for the PLA fighter jets to fly over the island.

This is likely to in turn ensure the US Navy keeps up its presence in the region, with it’s own provocative sail throughs of the contested Taiwan Strait recently becoming somewhat “routine” – though China sees it as anything but.

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

UK
Major UK fertilizer plants are shuttered due to skyrocketing natural gas prices
(zerohedge0

Major UK Fertilizer Plants Shuttered Due To Skyrocketing Natural Gas Prices

 
THURSDAY, SEP 16, 2021 – 04:15 AM

Fertilizer producer CF Industries Holdings Inc halted two fertilizer plants in the UK on Wednesday, according to a company press release. 

CF Industries Holdings, a top manufacturer of hydrogen and nitrogen products, released a statement today indicating that its Billingham and Ince, UK, manufacturing facilities suspended operations “due to high natural gas prices.” There was no timeframe on when the plants would reopen. But reasonably, one would suspect when gas prices come back down. 

Jim Reid, the chief credit strategist at Deutsche Bank, told clients today that in the “26 years of having a Bloomberg terminal, I’ve never pulled up so many gas price graphs as I have over the last 24 hours.” 

Reid is looking at benchmark UK natgas front-month contract has risen almost 400% since March, from 40 pence per megawatt-hour to 194 pence intra-day, before closing around 164. 

The credit strategist describes tight supplies as a significant driver in the melt-up of gas prices, stemming from dwindling Russian gas flows to Europe. 

He also noted power prices are rising as Europe’s transition to a low-carbon future hit a stumbling block as wind speeds in the North Sea are among the slowest in 20 years, idling turbines.  

CF’s plants produce ammonium nitrate fertilizers that are made from natgas. 

“There’s also a fight for supplies of liquefied natural gas, with Asia buying up cargoes to meet its own demand. Shutting down these plants, which largely produce ammonium nitrate, will cause the company to lose some production volume,” according to Alexis Maxwell, an analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence. 

The impact here will be supply destruction and may send fertilizer prices even higher:

“The market will read this as other European producers are likely to shut down, and nitrogen prices will continue to rise on the supply-side shortage,” Maxwell said

Fertilizers prices are already high because soaring food inflation has pushed farmers to increase plantings, thus using more nutrients. Also, the latest price surges have been due to CF’s Donaldsonville, Louisiana, plant declaring a force majeure last week after Hurricane Ida wreaked havoc on the US Gulf Coast. 

All of this is feeding into inflation on a global scale and is getting out of hand. To curb out of control European natgas prices, Germany has to certify Russia’s Nord Stream 2 to begin shipments – but as we noted earlier today, that could take months and may mean inventories on the continent aren’t resupplied in time for winter. 

end
 
FRANCE/AUSTRALIA/USA
France is really angry at the USA and allies as Biden forges a deal with Australia and England
(zerohedge)
 

France Accuses “Backstabbing” Biden Of Being ‘Worse Than Trump’ As UK-Aussie Defense Pact Sinks Sub Deal

 
THURSDAY, SEP 16, 2021 – 07:03 AM

As it turns out, while President Biden was celebrating yesterday’s “historic” security pact between the US, UK and Australia to establish a “partnership” that will help furnish Canberra with US nuclear submarine technology, one American ally was sulking in defeat.

Back in 2016, Australia had signed $40 billion contract with France’s Naval Group to build a new submarine fleet to replace the Aussie’s aging fleet of Collins subs. But apparently, the new deal with the US and UK makes this deal unnecessary (since Australia will now be getting its subs from the US, not France), essentially stealing a major $40 billion deal out of the mouth of the French defense industry.

Understandably, France wasn’t pleased. And in his first comments on the deal, French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian told france  info radio that President Biden had just pulled a “Trump-like” double-cross against a major American ally – all while claiming to be “rebuilding” America’s ties with its European allies, which (according to Biden and the Democrats) had been hopelessly damaged by President Trump’s demand that Europe simply pay its fair share for its defense.

“This brutal, unilateral and unpredictable decision reminds me a lot of what Mr Trump used to do,” Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian told franceinfo radio. “I am angry and bitter. This isn’t done between allies.”

“It’s a stab in the back. We created a relationship of trust with Australia and that trust has been broken,” Le Drian said.

Just two weeks ago, the Australian defense and foreign ministers had reconfirmed the sub deal with France, and French President Emmanuel Macron even went so far as to publicly celebrate decades of future cooperation when hosting Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison in June. Now, especially in the eyes of his own defense industry, he is being left with egg on his face.

President Trump had a famously hot-cold relationship with French President Emmanuel Maron. But after this, diplomats who opted to remain anonymous are telling Reuters that the latest deal could further damage the US relationship with France, potentially leaving it at its most frosty point since the “freedom fries” backlash during the beginning of the war in Iraq.

Already, the French are playing damage control with French Defense Minister Florence Parly holding a news conference thursday to say that “we will make sure ti limit the consequences” of Australia’s contract breach. “We will defend our interests,” he added.

Unfortunately for France, the embarrassment doesn’t stop at the submarines. France is preparing to take the EU’s rotating presidency, and as such has been playing a major role in negotiating a security pact with the Aussies. Now, it’s not even clear if that will be neccessary.

Meanwhile, confronted with France’s displeasure, President Biden has awkwardly pledged to continue working “closely” with France as a “key partner” in the Indo-Pacific.

We can almost hear the transatlantic ties straining.

END

France Recalls Ambassadors To US & Australia, Outraged Over Submarine Deal

FRIDAY, SEP 17, 2021 – 03:59 PM

France’s foreign minister Jean-Yves Le Drian late on Friday confirmed France has recalled its ambassadors to the United States and Australia in protest of the landmark pact between the US, UK and Australia announced Wednesday, which will see Washington assist Australia with nuclear-powered submarine development.

Paris says the ambassadors were called back for “consultations” – also citing comments made by Australia and the US after the ‘AUKUS’ was announced. Le Drian earlier described Australia’s scrapping of the €50 billion deal for France to deliver submarines, which had been negotiated since 2016, “a stab in the back.”

Via Reuters

France had further called Australia’s cancelation of the agreement a “unilateral, brutal, unpredictable decision.”

The initial French sub contract with Australia, which had been first agreed to in 2016, was for France to build 12 conventionally powered submarines modelled on Barracuda nuclear-powered subs.

Australia has never possessed nuclear-powered subs, and with this new US technology sharing partnership is expected to soon join an elite few number of powerful countries who operate nuclear submarines globally.

“It’s really a stab in the back. We had established a relationship of trust with Australia, this trust has been betrayed,” French foreign minister, Jean-Yves Le Drian, said Thursday just as Joe Biden and Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison announced the deal, which is widely seen as aimed at countering China’s growing power in the Indo-Pacific. 

Friday’s follow-up announcement informing countries of the recalled ambassadors cited “unacceptable behavior between allies and partners” and was ordered by French President Emmanuel Macron.

 
UK//VACCINE
Here we go again: the vaccine dodging variant (delta) will prompt another lockdown
(Daily Mail)

Cabinet minister: Vaccine-dodging variant will prompt lockdown | Daily Mail Online

 
 
 
 
England will have a rough civil order time, if they try again. They make well see real violence

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10000759/Cabinet-minister-Vaccine-dodging-variant-prompt-lockdown.html

 
end
 
Italy/vaccine
 
Passports mandatory in Italy for all private sector workers, starting Oct 15/2021
 
(Phillips/EpochTimes)

COVID-19 Vaccine Passport Mandatory In Italy For All Private Sector Workers: Officials

 
FRIDAY, SEP 17, 2021 – 05:00 AM

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times,

The Italian government on Thursday approved among the strictest COVID-19 rules in the world by mandating that all private and public sector employees get the vaccine and show proof of vaccination, a negative test, or a recent recovery from infection, officials said.

The rules will go into effect on Oct. 15, which would penalize any worker with a suspension from their job with no pay. However, the mandate stipulates that they cannot get terminated from their job, according to provisions of the measure.

The country’s Council of Ministers, during a Thursday evening meeting, voted to approve the rules, Minister of Health Roberto Speranza said after the government approved the mandate, reported Il Gazettino.

“We will also make the network of active pharmacies more widespread” that are “capable of administering swabs [and] rapid antigen tests in our country,” Speranza said, adding that the government decree will likely boost vaccination rates in Italy.

Individuals who go to work and cannot present a so-called “green pass,” a type of vaccine passport, will face a fine of between 600 and 1,500 euros ($705 to $1,175), according to the provisions.

The provisions also stipulate that private-sector employees who don’t have a green pass will not receive a salary starting Oct. 15, when the rule goes into effect.

While some European Union states have ordered their health workers to get vaccines, none have made the vaccine passports mandatory for all employees, making Italy the first to do so on the continent. Other countries like France have mandated vaccine passports to enter restaurants, gyms, some forms of travel, and other venues.

Over the past weekend, protests erupted in Italy over the green pass rule with reports saying that there were demonstrations in 120 cities.

Italy in March ordered health workers to get vaccinated or face suspension.

As of today, 728 doctors have been suspended, the doctors’ federation said on Thursday.

It was not immediately clear how many nurses or carers had refused to comply.

A similar measure in France came into force on Wednesday. Health Minister Olivier Veran said on Thursday that around 3,000 health workers had been suspended.

President Joe Biden, meanwhile, announced last week that he will direct the federal government to penalize private-sector employees and businesses to force workers to either submit to weekly COVID-19 testing or get the vaccine. The announcement drew significant criticism from Republican governors and attorneys general, who have threatened to file lawsuits against the administration.

Arizona Attorney General Mark Brnovich became the first state official to sue the Biden administration earlier this week, arguing that the government violates the Constitution by mandating that U.S. citizens get the vaccine while illegal immigrants don’t have to.

end
 
FRANCE
Huge fire at subsea power cable will probably trigger winter blackout as power has been dramatically reduced
(zerohedge)

Fire At UK-France Subsea Power Cable Could Trigger Winter Blackouts

 
FRIDAY, SEP 17, 2021 – 02:45 AM

A fire in a subsea cable has dramatically reduced power imports from France until March, U.K.’s National Grid Plc said, deepening the energy crisis that threatens winter blackouts for millions. 

The timing couldn’t be worse. Before the fire, the U.K. was already experiencing a five-year low in spare winter capacity. Compound this with gas shortages and the lack of renewable energy sources, sending power prices on a record-breaking run. The country may experience grid chaos in the coming months. 

“If we don’t start to remedy the situation, we are going to be facing blackouts this winter,” Catherine Newman, chief executive officer of Limejump Ltd., a unit of Royal Dutch Shell Plc, told Bloomberg on Thursday. “If things don’t start to reverse soon, we will see the industry getting turned off across the board.”

“If anything goes wrong, we might not have anything left in the back pocket,” said Tom Edwards, a consultant at Cornwall Insight Ltd., an adviser to the government and utilities. “If a nuke trips offline or something else big, that could cause issues because we might not have anything to replace it.”

Britain receives power via six subsea cables, and two of them are connected to France’s power grids of more than 56 nuclear power plants. 

The cable’s total capacity will be shut off until March 2022. The shortage is expected to exacerbate power price volatility when peak demand is seen in the winter months. 

“The outage is going to lift the potential for price volatility as long as its offline,” said Glenn Rickson, head of power analysis at S&P Global Platts. 

The compounding energy crunch is fueling concerns about inflation when the economy is still recovering from the pandemic. 

The subsea cable interruption doesn’t mean blackouts will be seen in the immediate future. Still, as power demand increases as temperatures turn cooler, demand will spike and strain the grid. 

The energy crunch has already forced two fertilizer plants in the country to shutter operations on Wednesday. C.F. Industries Holdings Inc halted its Billingham and Ince manufacturing facilities “due to high natural gas prices.

The broader issue is that economic impacts due to an unstable power grid could hinder economic development this winter. 

It’s only a matter of time before U.K. politicians take action to shield consumers from high energy prices. 

end

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

 
 

ISRAELNEWS//VACCINE

From Robert:

not good!! Israeli soldiers are being held down and forced to receive the Pfizer jab in the middle of the night

Israeli soldiers forced jab in middle of the night – YouTube

end
 
 

6.Global Issues

CORONAVIRUS UPDATE

This is a must read as Tucker of the Brownstone Institute explains exactly why two top FDA officials resigned their posts. Not only that but this week, in a signed letter in the Lancet they strongly warns against vaccine boosters.

(Tucker//Brownstone)

The Meaning Of The Recent FDA Resignations

 
THURSDAY, SEP 16, 2021 – 01:40 PM

Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Brownstone Institute,

How significant is it that the two top FDA officials responsible for vaccine research resigned last week and this week signed a letter in The Lancet that strongly warns against vaccine boosters?

This is a remarkable sign that the project of government-managed virus mitigation is in the final stages before falling apart.

The booster has already been promoted by top lockdown advocates Neil Ferguson of Imperial College and Anthony Fauci of NIH, even in the face of rising public incredulity toward their “expert” advice. For these two FDA officials to go on record with grave doubts – and their perspective is certainly backed by the unimpressive booster experience in Israel – introduces a major break in the narrative that the experts in charge deserve our trust and deference. 

What’s at stake here? It’s about more than the boosters. It’s about the whole experience of taking away the control of health management from individuals and medical professionals and handing it over to modelers and government officials with coercive power. 

From the first week of March 2020, the US embarked on a wild experiment in virus mitigation, deploying a series of measures with a sweep and scope that had never previously been attempted, not in modern times and not even in ancient times. The litany of controls and tactics is long. Many of these measures survive in most parts of the US. The retail landscape is still filled with plexiglass. We are still invited to sanitize ourselves when going indoors. People still mask up in proximity to others. The “Karens” of the world are still actively shaming and denouncing anyone suspected of non-compliance. 

The vaccine push has been particularly divisive, with President Biden actively encouraging “anger” at those who don’t get the jab, even as he refuses to acknowledge the existence of infection-induced immunities. In several cities, people who refuse vaccines are being denied active participation in civic life, and a populist movement is rising up that scapegoats the refuseniks as the only reason that the virus continues to be a problem. 

All these measures were deployed in waves of controls. It all began with event cancellations and school closures. It continued with travel bans, most of which are still in place. Sanitization and plexiglass were next. Masks were rolled out and then mandated. The principle of forced human separation governed social interactions. Capacity limits indoors were a common feature. The US example inspired many governments around the world to adopt these NPIs (non-pharmaceutical interventions) and take away the liberties of the people. 

At each stage of control, there were new claims that we’ve finally found the answer, the key technique that would finally slow and stop the spread of SARS-CoV-2. Nothing worked, as the virus seemed to follow its own course regardless of all these measures. Indeed there was no observable difference anywhere in the world based on whether and to what extent any of these measures were deployed. 

Finally came the pharmaceutical interventions, voluntary at first but gradually mandatory, just as with each previous protocol began as a recommendation until it was mandated. 

At no point in these 19 months have we seen a clear admission of failure on the part of government officials. Indeed, it’s mostly been the opposite, as the agencies double down, claiming effectiveness while citing no data or studies, while social media companies backed it all by taking down contrarian posts and brazenly deleting accounts of people who dare cite dissenting science. 

The vaccine was the biggest gamble of all simply because the program was so expensive, so personal, and so wildly oversold. Even those of us who opposed every other mandate had hopes that the vaccines would finally end the public panic and provide governments a way to back out of all the other strategies that had failed. 

That did not happen. 

Most people believed that the vaccine would work like many others before them to block infection and spread. In this, people were merely believing what the head of the CDC said. “Our data from the C.D.C. today suggests that vaccinated people do not carry the virus, don’t get sick,” Rochelle Walinsky told Rachel Maddow. “And that it’s not just in the clinical trials, it’s also in real-world data.” 

“You’re not going to get COVID if you have these vaccinations,”President Biden said, reflecting what was the common view in the summer of 2021.

That of course turned out not to be the case. The vaccines appear to have been helpful in mitigating against some severe outcomes but it did not achieve victory over the virus. Israel’s surge in infections in August was among the fully vaccinated. The same happened in the UK and Scotland, and that precise result began to hit the US in September. Indeed, we all have vaccinated friends who caught the virus and were sick for days. Meanwhile, team natural immunity has received a huge boost from a large study in Israel that demonstrated that recovered Covid cases gain far more protection than is conferred by the vaccine.

The fallback position then became the booster. Surely this is the answer! Israel was first to mandate them. Here again, the problems began to show, as yet another magic bullet of disease mitigation failed. Then the inevitable headline came: Israel preparing for possible fourth COVID vaccine dose. So think about this because there is a sense in which the vaccines rank among the biggest failures: in a matter of a few short months, we’ve gone from the claim that they fully protect to they are pretty okay provided you get regularly scheduled boosters forever. 

Now to the striking resignation of two top officials at the FDA who were in charge of vaccine safety and administration. It was the Director and Deputy Director of the Office of Vaccines Research, Marion Gruber and Phillip Kause.

They gave no reason for their departure, which is scheduled for October and November. 

The case is fascinating because 1) people rarely resign cushy government jobs unless a higher-paying, higher-prestige job in the private sector awaits, or 2) they are being pushed out. It’s rare for anyone in a position like to to resign over a principled matter of science. When I first read that they were going, I figured something else was up. 

These days, extremely weird things are going on within the Biden administration. Even though his approval ratings are sinking, the president has to pretend that he has all the answers, that the science behind his mandates and virus war is universally settled, that anyone who disagrees with him is really just a political enemy. He has gone so far as to denounce, demonize, and legally threaten red-state governors who disagree with him. 

This is a deep problem for actual scientists working within the bureaucracy because they know for sure that all of this is a pretense and that the government cannot win this war on the virus. They simply cannot preside over more false promises, especially when the whole of their professional training is about assessing the safety and effectiveness of vaccines. 

So what can they do? In this case, it appears they had to get away before they dropped a bombshell. 

The bombshell is called “Considerations in boosting COVID-19 vaccine immune responses.” It appears in the prestigious British medical journal The Lancet. The two top officials are among the authors. The article recommends against the Covid booster shot that the Biden administration, following Fauci’s advice, is suggesting as the key to making the vaccines work better and finally fulfill their promise. 

Fauci and company are pushing boosters because they know what is coming. Essentially we are going the way of Israel: most everyone is vaccinated but the virus itself is not being controlled. More and more among those hospitalized and dying are vaccinated. This same trend is coming to the US. The boosters are a means by which government can save face, or so many believe.

The trouble now is that the top scientists at the FDA disagree. Further, they think that the push for boosters is courting problems. They think the current regime of one or two shots is working as well as one can expect. Nothing is gained on net from a booster, they say. There just isn’t enough evidence to take the risk of another booster, and another and another. 

The authors knew this article was appearing. They knew that signing it under the FDA affiliation would lead to a push for their resignations. Life would get very difficult for both of them. They got ahead of the messaging and resigned before it came out. Very smart. 

The signed article goes even further to warn of possible downsides. They point out that boosters might seem necessary because “variants expressing new antigens have evolved to the point at which immune responses to the original vaccine antigens no longer protect adequately against currently circulating viruses.” At the same time, there are possible side effects that could discredit all vaccines for a generation or more. “There could be risks,” they write, “if boosters are widely introduced too soon, or too frequently, especially with vaccines that can have immune-mediated side-effects (such as myocarditis, which is more common after the second dose of some mRNA vaccines, or Guillain-Barre syndrome, which has been associated with adenovirus-vectored COVID-19 vaccines.”)

Bringing up such side effects is essentially a taboo topic. That this was written by two top FDA officials is nothing short of remarkable, especially because it comes at a time when the Biden administration is going all in on vaccine mandates. Meanwhile, studies are showing that for teenage boys, the vaccine poses a greater risk to them than Covid itself. “For boys 16-17 without medical comorbidities, the rate of CAE is currently 2.1 to 3.5 times higher than their 120-day COVID-19 hospitalization risk, and 1.5 to 2.5 times higher at times of high weekly COVID-19 hospitalization.”

From the beginning of these lockdowns – along with all the masks, restrictions, bogus health advice from plexiglass to sanitizer to universal vaccine mandates and so on – it was clear that there would someday be hell to pay. They wrecked rights and liberties, crashed economies, traumatized a whole generation of children and other students, ran roughshod over religious freedom, and for what? There is zero evidence that any of this has made any difference. We are surrounded by the carnage they created. 

The appearance of The Lancet article by two top FDA vaccine scientists is truly devastating and revealing because it undermines the last plausible tool to save the whole machinery of government disease management that has been deployed at such enormous social, cultural, and economic cost for 19 months. Not in our lifetimes has a policy failed so badly. The intellectual and political implications here are monumental. It means that the real Covid crisis – the task of assigning responsibility for all the collateral damage – has just begun. 

In 2006, during the early years of the birth of lockdown ideology, the great epidemiologist Donald Henderson warned that if any of these restrictive measures were deployed for a pandemic, the result would be a “loss of trust in government” and “a manageable epidemic could move toward catastrophe.” Catastrophe is exactly what has happened.

The current regime wants to point the finger toward the noncompliant. That is no longer believable. They cannot delay the inevitable for much longer: responsibility for this catastrophe belongs to those who embarked on this political experiment in the first place

end

The criminal FDA incorrectly states that COVID 19 vaccines are still effective but they say that booster may not be needed (as they will kill you)

(Phillips/EpochTimes)

FDA Says Authorized COVID-19 Vaccines Still Effective, Boosters May Not Be Needed

 
WEDNESDAY, SEP 15, 2021 – 11:01 PM

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times,

The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) on Wednesday said that agency-authorized COVID-19 vaccines currently provide protection against death and severe disease and may not require additional boosters, coming after vaccine maker Pfizer submitted data saying that its vaccine’s efficacy is eroding over time.

In findings released online, the FDA analyzed data submitted by Pfizer as part of their request to authorize a booster shot, or a third dose, of the vaccine to individuals aged 16 and older in the United States.

The agency did not make a definitive statement on whether to support booster shots at this time, adding that regulators have not reviewed the available data.

“There are many potentially relevant studies, but FDA has not independently reviewed or verified the underlying data or their conclusions,” the FDA wrote (pdf) in a 23-page document published online.

“Some of these studies, including data from the vaccination program in Israel, will be summarized during the September 17, 2021 [Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee] meeting.”

Some studies, they said, have indeed shown the Pfizer mRNA vaccine has waning efficacy against the Delta variant or symptomatic infection. However, other studies have not, the FDA said.

“Overall, data indicate that currently U.S.-licensed or authorized COVID-19 vaccines still afford protection against severe COVID-19 disease and death in the United States,” FDA researchers wrote.

Biden administration officials late last month said in a news conference that they are aiming for a Sept. 20 rollout for boosters, although they cautioned that their plan is contingent on whether the doses are approved by the FDA. A panel of outside observers will review the FDA’s report on Friday and will analyze the Pfizer analysis and other information to determine whether boosters are needed for the general population.

If the panel recommends boosters, the FDA could distribute the doses within a few days.

In August, the FDA fully approved the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine for people aged 16 and older. Vaccines made by Moderna, which uses mRNA technology like Pfizer, and Johnson & Johnson are still being distributed under the agency’s emergency use authorization.

During its presentation to the FDA, which was uploaded on the agency’s website, Pfizer argued that data from the United States and Israel suggests its mRNA vaccine efficacy is dropping over time, warranting the need for boosters.

“Real-world data from Israel and the United States suggest that rates of breakthrough infections are rising faster in individuals who were vaccinated earlier in the vaccination campaigns compared to those who have been vaccinated more recently,” Pfizer said.

For its conclusion, the German-based pharmaceutical giant cited a study from healthcare giant Kaiser Permanente that suggested protection against COVID-19 infection dropped from 88 percent in the first month of getting the second dose to 47 percent after five months of inoculation.

Earlier this week, a study that included two departing FDA officials said they do not recommend booster shots and said that possible side effects from them could outweigh the benefits.

“Even if boosting were eventually shown to decrease the medium-term risk of serious disease, current vaccine supplies could save more lives if used in previously unvaccinated populations,” the authors wrote.

Pfizer has not responded yet to a request for comment.

END

This is a must view:  Dr Reiner is a lawyer but extremely knowledgeable on the virus and vaccines and he gives a thorough analysis is to what is going on right now

FYI

 
 

Excellent latest summary by Dr. Reiner Fuellmich

Thursday, September 16, 2021 6:57 
 

end

Italy now will be issuing a 1000 euro fine for going outside and not wearing a mask

(zerohedge)

No vax pass? Can’t work in Italy. 1000 euro fine otherwise

 
 
 
 
Just so you can see how far the authorities can go (or think they can go).

 
If people can’t work, they can’t eat, clothe or house themselves. Quite remarkable that they want to predicate this on a vaccine that does not actually work, and has devastating side effects. Have authorities done this for vaccines that actually do work and are important, like anti-tetanus, diphtheria, etc? No. Just this one. Covid, with a 99.9%+ survival rate. Hmmmm.

 
 
Also quite amazing that the drug that is proven to work is banned in Australia and doctors lose their license for prescribing in Canada. https://www.theblaze.com/op-ed/horowitz-the-unmistakable-ivermectin-miracle-in-the-indian-state-of-uttar-pradesh
 
Are you awake yet? This vaccination has nothing to do with health, and everything to do with control. And possibly intentionally sickening and killing people with a known toxin in spike protein.
 
 
end
 
 
This is an extremely big paper:  An Idaho doctor has been study the vaccinated and has been concentrating on CD’8 and what my son Mark has been pounding the table on: telomerase.  His findings:  CD’8s are being destroyed by the vaccine along with reduction in telomerase.  This will cause a 2000% increase in cancers.
(zerohedge/my son Mark and Robert H)

Vaxxed pts have a 20x increase in cancer according to this Idaho doc

 
 
 
There could be a couple of mechanisms for this:

 
– Increased cell senescence , essentially premature aging, increasing heart disease, diabetes and cancer.  Spike protein reduces or eliminates telomerase action, which reduces telomere remodelling, causing cells to die.
 
– Destruction of native immune system, making it more likely for cancer cells to proliferate without interference from killer lymphocytes

 
 
It is interesting that only spike protein vaccines are allowed in North America. In China, they have traditional attenuated virus vaccines, and they seem to be doing quite well relative to highly vaxxed spike protein populations.
 
 
end
 
From a surgeon in Ontario Canada
 
 
 

Dear vaccinated,
We did not take your freedom. The government did.
We are not holding your freedoms at ransom. The government is.
If we are a danger to you, then your vaccine doesn’t work.
If it does, then you should already be free.
The government has lied to you.

I am a surgeon in southwestern Ontario. On September 23, as a result of vaccine mandates, I will no longer be able to enter the hospital. My hospital based practice is given over to skin cancer (large resections with flap coverage) and trauma.

I have over 200 patients already booked in clinic that will be left orphaned as there are currently only 2 plastic surgeons for 450000 people.

This is a metaphorical hill I am prepared to die on. My privileges at the hospital will be revoked which will result in an automatic notification to my licensing body.

My son, in his last year of computer science, will likely lose his year as a result of refusing the jab.

One of the nurses phoned me last weekend inquiring as to possibility of referral to a psychologist/psychiatrist for her husband to go on stress leave-he is a nurse who works in the cath lab. The final straw for him was the 23 year old who came in with code STEMI 3 days post 2nd Moderna jab. He has many other stories of post jab MI’s etc. The neurologists are labelling post jab strokes as “embolic stroke of unknown etiology”. The cardiologists don’t even want to discuss the possibility of subclinical myocarditis in the vaccinated.

My licensing body (College of Physicians and Surgeons of Ontario) has ruled that I cannot say anything negative regarding masks, lockdowns, and vaccines.

Informed consent is a joke. With removal of a simple cyst, I have to detail the potential complications of bleeding, infection, spread scar, hypertrophic scar, recurrence, and the issues of scar maturation over time. This is a bare minimum. With the jab (administered by nurse or physician), “please sign here that you consent to be jabbed and have your name entered in a database”-that’s it because the jab is “safe and effective and no steps have been skipped in its development”.

I am the progeny of holocaust survivors. I recognize Nazi Germany circa 1932 very well. It is difficult for me to swallow the cognitive dissonance of the Israeli government. People are starting to fight back. Twenty local EMS workers are refusing the jab.

The local police and firefighters are having a silent demonstration this weekend. You can feel the change in the air. However, the opposition are all in. They have no choice now but to see it to the end. If the public finds out what they have done, lynching won’t even begin to cut it.

I am not violent. I have spent my entire adult life caring for people in distress and consider it an honor to have been able to do so. But, as mentioned here and elsewhere, all it would take would be the elimination of 100 people and this would all be over. Here, in Canada, we are very far away from that place.

I have friends in the US who are retired special forces. They are closer to that place but not yet there. We shall see.

end

Are These Findings the Death Blow for Vaccine Passports?

 
Extremely important
please read:
From Robert H
 
 
 
end

Cabinet minister: Vaccine-dodging variant will prompt lockdown | Daily Mail Online

 
 
 
 
England will have a rough civil order time, if they try again. They make well see real violence

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10000759/Cabinet-minister-Vaccine-dodging-variant-prompt-lockdown.html

 
end
 
Alberta reversing its decision and will now go onto complete lockdowns.  They have the wrong parties: THE VACCINATED SHOULD BE QUARANTINED
(zerohedge)

Alberta’s Health Minister Says Unvaccinated “Will Not Be Permitted To Attend Indoor Private Gatherings”

 
THURSDAY, SEP 16, 2021 – 06:10 PM

Just days before a federal “snap” election that could see PM Justin Trudeau ousted, Alberta’s Health Minister Jason Kenney on Thursday went back on his promise not to impose vaccine passports in the Canadian province of Alberta – even pledging to fight back if the federal government tried to enforce one – and declared a state of emergency that will leave unvaccinated Albertans essentially trapped inside their own homes.

At Kenney’s behest, Alberta’s Health Minister Tyler Shandro announced that the Government of Alberta will be implementing several restrictions effective Sept. 16.

All Canadians must mask up at work, and any Canadians who can must work from home. Individuals must provide proof of vaccination, or a recent negative test, simply to enter a business – and the unvaccinated will not be permitted to attend any private indoor social gatherings as well.

Here’s the rules on social gatherings from Alberta’s COVID information page.

Indoor social gatherings

  • Vaccinated: Indoor private social gatherings are limited to a single household plus one other household to a maximum of 10 vaccine-eligible, vaccinated people and no restrictions on children under 12.
  • Unvaccinated: Indoor social gatherings are not permitted for vaccine-eligible people who are unvaccinated.

In what some might interpret as an insult to Albertans’ intelligence, Shandro and Kenney are refusing to call a spade a spade. The tiered vaccine passport system they have implemented resembles the passport in every way, yet they’re trying to turn it on its heads, calling the “restrictions exemptions program.”

What’s more, as the COVID case numbers rise, vaccine passports are likely coming to the rest of the country, one province at a time.

Rebels News declared the whole thing “pure political theater”. Unfortunately for the Conservatives, the backlash probably won’t rebound back on Trudeau.

end

And now Saskatchewan//emergency measures

saskatchewan

Let us take a look at Sweden over the past year or so and compare their results with Israel

a must read

(Unmasked substack)

Why Does No One Ever Talk About Sweden Anymore?

 
FRIDAY, SEP 17, 2021 – 03:30 AM

Via ‘Unmasked” substack,

One of the most consistently repeated trends of COVID has been the premature declarations of victory from areas with a perceived level of “success” in “controlling” the pandemic.

It’s happened in countries all over the world — Vietnam, Japan, Taiwan, Australia, Mongolia — just to name a few examples. They all have been praised for their ability to “control” the virus with masks and public health measures, only to then see cases invariably skyrocket.

Incompetent media reporting and dangerously ignorant “expert” pontifications have been an infuriatingly persistent aspect of COVID messaging, with their incoherent ravings becoming increasingly desperate as time wears on.

On the flip side to inaccurate praise, the incomprehensible inability of experts to get anything right is perhaps best exemplified by Sweden.

“Experts” and the media declared Sweden was the world’s cautionary tale, a dangerous outlier who shunned The New Science™ of masks and lockdowns and stuck to established public health principles and pre-pandemic planning.

Over much of 2020 and into 2021, Sweden was persistently criticized by the media and on Twitter arguments due to comparisons to their neighbors, a standard curiously not applicable to most other countries around the world. Yet as we’ve progressed further into 2021, those same media outlets have suddenly gone quiet as their chosen victors have flailed unsuccessfully against ever increasing outbreaks.

So let’s see what’s transpired recently which resulted in the deafening silence, and examine what that means for The Science™, shall we?

Context

To begin, we have to look at just how hyperbolic and inaccurate the media coverage of Sweden has been since the start of the pandemic.

Here’s Time from October 2020, with the headline providing an impressively succinct summary:

It’s a DISASTER.A DISASTER! It shouldn’t be a model for the rest of the world, they say.

The very first section of the article clearly exposes the heart of media incompetence:

The Swedish COVID-19 experiment of not implementing early and strong measures to safeguard the population has been hotly debated around the world, but at this point we can predict it is almost certain to result in a net failure in terms of death and suffering. As of Oct. 13, Sweden’s per capita death rate is 58.4 per 100,000 people, according to Johns Hopkins University data, 12th highest in the world (not including tiny Andorra and San Marino).

Got that? It is “almost certain to result in a net failure in terms of death and suffering.” The “12th highest” population adjusted death rate, they said.

How well did this age?

Not well! It did not age well.

Sweden now ranks 40th. Eleven months later, they went from 12th to 40th. Peru, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Brazil, Argentina, Colombia, Paraguay, Belgium, Italy, Mexico, Croatia, the United Kingdom, the United States, Poland, Chile, Spain, Romania, Uruguay, Portugal, France, South Africa all rank ahead of Sweden. Nearly every one of them has tried masks and lockdowns and to this point it’s resulted in a “net failure” in terms of “death and suffering” compared to Sweden.

The article continued:

Despite this, Sweden’s Public Health Agency director Johan Carlson has claimed that “the Swedish situation remains favorable,” and that the country’s response has been “consistent and sustainable.”

Ah yes, the laughable assertion that Sweden’s response was “consistent and sustainable.”

Except, of course, that’s exactly what that graph above illustrates: an approach that was consistent and sustainable because it didn’t rely on indefinite mask mandates and business closures as methods to “control” COVID. As other countries saw their cumulative mortality rates skyrocket, Sweden dropped precipitously in the rankings due to their consistent, sustainable methods.

The article is unbelievably extensive, and looking back now, laughably pointless. The writer’s horror at Sweden’s acceptance that the pandemic would spread widely through the population leading to increased levels of natural immunity looks even more monumentally ignorant given the strength and durability of immunity conferred by previous infection.

And there were many, MANY others just like it. Check out the headline on this piece from World Politics Review:

Will There Be a Reckoning Over Sweden’s Disastrous ‘Herd Immunity’ Strategy?

Frida Ghitis Thursday, Dec. 17, 2020

A “reckoning!” “Disastrous!”

Business Insider was similarly and unsurprisingly hyperbolic:

Sweden’s renegade COVID-19 policy looks like a disaster — but the country is quietly determined to see it through despite the cost in lives

Sinéad Baker

Jul 25, 2020, 4:56 AM

Their “renegade” policy! The “cost in lives!”

The Telegraph headlined an article:

“Sweden has shown how not to tackle coronavirus, as it fights now to save face.”

There are dozens and dozens of similar pieces from all over the world.

So again allow me to remind you that Sweden ranks 40th in the world in mortality rate. I wonder if Insider described world mortality rate leader Peru’s lockdown and mask strategy as a “renegade” policy, with the government determined to mandate locking down and masking despite the “cost in lives.”

Of course not! It’s not about the actual results, it’s about following The Science™. Does it matter if The Science™ leads to more deaths? A higher “cost in lives?” Of course not! It only matters that the media approves or disapproves of what you decide to do.

Oh and by the way, here’s excess mortality in Sweden since 2017 according to EUROMOMO:

That’s right, there’s only been a few weeks since the initial wave last spring where Sweden’s seen a “substantial increase” above normal ranges, and they’ve been at or near baseline for almost all of 2021. I wonder how many people around the world are aware of that.

It’s the same story seen in Los Angeles County, where hilariously timed and completely useless vaccine passport policies were just announced. The overwhelming majority of people are so hopelessly gaslit by media propaganda that they still actually believe that masks and closures matter, despite reality directly contradicting their assumptions:

The media’s depiction of Sweden’s results is an excellent illustration of their desire not to inform, but to coerce. They’re not functioning as simply messengers of information but activists, thoroughly consumed by a desire to force others to conform to their opinions.

They refuse to present information that counters the endless dictatorial mandates, instead promoting unquestioning compliance. Listen to us, do what you’re told and wear a mask, or it’s your fault if you get COVID and die. Listen to us and do what you’re told, or you’ll be labeled an “anti” and shunned from the acceptable society that “journalism” polices.

So let’s look at how things are going of late in a few regions that complied with the expert and media mandated edicts.

Israel & Sweden

Standing in stark contrast to Sweden, Israel has been a media darling for doing exactly what they’re told by the groupthink mafia. They’ve vaccinated as aggressively and repeatedly as anywhere on earth, and they’ve had a seemingly endless series of mask mandates and fines for non-compliance.

As a result, The Wall Street Journal credited Israel’s commitment to mask wearing last fall with bringing cases down to low levels…only to see cases skyrocket higher immediately afterwards:

Then in early 2021, they were hailed as a successful example of “universal coverage and community infrastructure” due to their high vaccination rates, as Health Affairs explained:

Israel Owes Its COVID-19 Vaccination Success To A System of Universal Coverage And Community Infrastructure

And as this Reuters headline echoed in May:

Israel to end COVID-19 restrictions after vaccine success

So how is shining success story Israel doing compared to unmitigated disaster Sweden?

Oh no. Oh boy.

Sweden’s currently averaging about 90 cases per million. Israel’s averaging 1,218. That’s a lot worse! In fact, it’s 1,253% worse than Sweden.

Now, it’s very likely Sweden will see another increase over the fall and winter, just as they did last year, but uh…that’s kinda the point isn’t it? The increases happen in waves, regardless of supposed “mitigation” efforts. And again, Israel has been repeatedly and endlessly praised for their success. Sweden is a “disaster” and a “renegade.” Yet Israel’s recorded 13,279 cases per 100,000 since they started counting, the 11th highest rate in the world, while Sweden’s recorded 11,111 cases per 100,000.

But that doesn’t matter, because Israel’s done what they’re told, and Sweden hasn’t. There are no masks, no vaccine passports, no draconian business closures. They have a “consistent and sustainable” approach that’s led to…fewer confirmed infections than countries like Israel.

You might be wondering, well those are just cases, what about deaths? That’s what really matters, right?

Here’s the recent trends by that measure too:

Between July 10th and September 7th, Sweden has reported 56 total deaths. Israel reported 56 just on September 8th, with a significantly smaller population! Success!

Now to be fair, Israel has a lower cumulative mortality rate, although unfortunately they are rapidly catching up. Although while their recent death rate is significantly higher, Time will never criticize Israel as a “disaster,” because they did what they were told. And that’s all that matters.

Europe

But it’s not just Israel, there’s been an interesting shift in case rates among Sweden’s “neighbors” as well.

Here’s how cases have looked in Finland and Norway compared to Sweden since June 1, 2021:

Well hmm. That isn’t how that’s supposed to go, is it?

Again, to be fair, cumulative rates in the other two countries are lower than Sweden, but how is it possible for them to have similar or worse numbers during any length of time given the unmitigated, renegade disaster of Sweden’s policy?

Their recent mortality rates per 100k are nearly identical as well:

How could this happen?!

At this point it’s positively absurd to lend credence to the absurd media, expert and Twitter narrative that claims Sweden can only be compared to its neighbors. No other country on earth is being held to that standard. No one says that the U.S. can only be compared to Canada or Mexico; in fact many experts seriously claim that we should have followed the New Zealand strategy, a tiny isolated island country smaller than many metro areas in the United States. No one says that Germany can only be compared to France or Austria or The Netherlands. Or Spain with France and Portugal. Or South American countries to their neighbors. It’s just become a convenient shorthand excuse in a desperate attempt to confirm pre-existing biases.

Oh and speaking of Germany, here’s how deaths in Sweden and Germany look over the past 15 months:

Germany put on a “master class in science communication” according to CNBC, Sweden is a renegade disaster, and yet Germany’s done worse for the majority of the last year. I wonder if you surveyed Americans or Brits or anywhere else where the media is relentlessly dedicated to pseudoscience, if they would be able to identify which of the two countries had done worse over that time frame.

I don’t think it would go very well!

So to answer the question, why does no one talk about Sweden anymore? It’s because it’s no longer useful for the media to promote their agenda.

When Sweden’s numbers looked disproportionately bad, it was a valuable tool in the media playbook of masks, lockdowns and endless, condescending fear-mongering. “Look at what happens if you don’t do what we tell you, peasants.”

Now that Sweden has dropped to 40th in COVID mortality rate, and continued to report extremely low recent rates of both cases and deaths, they’re suddenly uninterested.

It’s a microcosm of the disastrous, indefinite mess we’re living through — experts incorrectly, hysterically screeched that masks and business closures and capacity limits were absolutely necessary to keep COVID “under control,” and the media immediately assumed their role as promoters of incompetent groupthink and professional scolds of any who disagreed.

Sweden went against the herd, thus they must be scorned and labeled by the arbiters of acceptable opinion.

There will never be a reckoning or acceptance of fault on the part of the media, because they are incapable of correcting their preconceptions and admitting that The Science™ was wrong. They placed their unquestioning faith in experts having a level of competence that they simply do not possess. And if there were any sanity or justice in the world, they would be held to account for their inaccuracy and the influence it’s had on COVID policy.

But of course, as we all know, sanity and the Age of Reason and Enlightenment ended with “15 Days to Slow the Spread,” 549 days ago.

 end

A no brainer!

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FDA panel votes against COVID-19 booster recommendation
A federal advisory panel said Friday the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) should not approve a third booster dose of Pfizer and BioNTech’s COVID-19 vaccine for everyone 16 or older, but indicated they would be open to boosters for older people.
Read the developing report here
 
 
 
 
end
 
GLOBAL ISSUES/COUNTRY
 
CANADA
Canada now facing soaring inflation. This may defeat Trudeau as citizens are becoming very angry
(zerohedge)

Canada’s Conservatives Are Using Soaring Inflation To Help Defeat Trudeau

 
WEDNESDAY, SEP 15, 2021 – 10:00 PM

As Liberal PM Justin Trudeau sees his chances of winning another term during the upcoming snap election dwindle, his opponents, the Conservatives, have successfully used Canada’s runaway inflation as a cudgel to slam Trudeau and his Liberals for mismanaging the economy. They’re calling it “Liberal inflation”, and it looks like the term is sticking.

According to Bloomberg, affordability has been one of the top issues ahead of the snap vote which is set for Sept. 20. Rising costs for housing, cars and gasoline have greatly benefited conservatives while accusing the incumbent Liberal government of stoking inflation with its debt-financed spending.

Trudeau’s campaign won’t be helped by a 4.1% inflation reading for August, the highest since 2003. The Conservatives pounced on the number as soon as it hit Wednesday morning.

“The numbers released today make it clear that under Justin Trudeau, Canadians are experiencing an affordability crisis,” Conservative Leader Erin O’Toole said in a statement.

While cost-of-living issues are a regular of feature of Conservative election campaigns, it’s become a central part of the narrative this year as the party seeks to take advantage of polls showing the issue is on voters’ minds. A recent survey by Abacus Data showed 38% of Canadians believe reducing their cost of living was a key factor impacting their vote, making it the top issue by far.

For many Canadians, inflation concerns are closely linked to housing affordability, which has worsened substantially over the last decade, but particularly since the start of the pandemic. Buying a home has gotten harder and more expensive almost everywhere in the country, not unlike the US.

To be sure, much of the criticism is hype – O’Toole’s party isn’t offering up many concrete solutions to ease price pressures. An obvious way to curtail inflation, for example, would be to curb government spending but the Conservative platform’s fiscal projections don’t differ that much from those put forward by the Liberals.

Many aspects of the inflationary pressures facing Canadians are part of a global trend. Choked up supply chains have led to shortages, while a lack of new supply has led to an explosion in housing prices.

Like their counterparts in the US, Canada’s Liberals continue to insist that the inflationary pressures are “transitory”.

And while they have tried to avoid talking about the issue, Trudeau was finally forced to mention it during a speech earlier this week.

“We recognize that families are concerned about affordability,” Trudeau said Wednesday when asked about the latest inflation reading at a campaign stop in Halifax, Nova Scotia. He added that his government would continue to support Canadians through the recovery from the COVID-19 crisis.

There’s no question that this is making Trudeau politically vulnerable. The governing Liberals have been polling in low 30%-support levels for most of the campaign, well short of what would be required to gain majority control of the House of Commons, which was Trudeau’s goal when he called the “snap” election.

Instead, not unlike David Cameron’s Brexit gambit, we could see the decision backfire, restoring power to the Conservatives while shunting the Liberals back into the opposition.

 
END
 
Michael Every on the most important stories of the day.
Michael Every…

Chinese Brokers Drop Currency Forecasts To Avoid Angering Regulators

 
THURSDAY, SEP 16, 2021 – 09:31 AM

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Yesterday’s Chinese data were a real shock. In particular, retail sales were up only 2.5% y/y in August vs. 7.0% expected and only 3.0% 2y/y. This is hardly what one calls a robust consumer recovery – and given industrial production was only slightly weaker than projected, explains why China is running such large trade surpluses: supply is up, demand is flat. Enter ‘Common prosperity’ – which Wall Street is still struggling to understand given it will read anything else but the actual instruction manual. Yet there was another report out yesterday –beyond Evergrande, which today just suspended all its onshore bonds — just as shocking in some ways, and which Wall Street is not only refusing to read, but apparently to print. Reuters reported: “EXCLUSIVE China brokers drop yuan forecasts to avoid regulators’ ire”.

It claims Brokerages in China have dropped detailed currency forecasts from their research notes, or have restricted access to them, underlining the growing sensitivity in the financial sector to a regulatory clampdown on speculative investment. Their disappearance follows pressure to avoid stockmarket forecasts as well as a ban by authorities on publishing commodity prices, amid a series of sprawling crackdowns that are re-shaping China’s economy and upending financial markets….analysis of months of notes from four brokers in China shows once-detailed forecasts for the Chinese currency against the dollar have now vanished or grown fuzzy, with precise predictions replaced by ranges or vague statements.”

Reuters notes: “It also comes at a delicate moment for the yuan, which China has sought to promote as a global reserve currency but which is tightly managed by the central bank and has been stubbornly firm recently despite a broadly strong dollar. The market effect of publishing only generalised forecasts is unclear, particularly as foreign institutions continue to offer precise ones.” Also, Chinese clients can apparently access FX projections *privately*. Yet are those two gaps –foreign/domestic, private/public– to remain or close, and if so in which direction?

For alexic Wall Street, dual exchange rates were common in Soviet economies. After initial demonetisation, Lenin’s pro-market New Economic Plan shifted to sovznaks (paper currency) and chervonetz (gold-backed currency, supported by a positive balance of payments). Guess what? Capital markets liked the latter: money is money. Under Stalin, the USSR walked away from Wall Street, not vice versa, and shifted to a command economy where the Soviet ruble –not fully-fungible domestically– had a dual exchange rate: high on official markets, which only a privileged few could use; and very low on the unofficial black market.

We are very far from this situation today. Indeed, unlike the post-Lenin USSR, and its own recent wobbles, China is flush with dollars right now on the back of capital inflows and Covid-related trade surpluses. So why the avoidance of FX forecasts? Reuters suggests that the aim is to avoid Chinese corporates, with dollar holdings of nearly $1 trillion –meaning official FX reserves of $3.2 trillion are artificially low— coming to any FX consensus and taking a counterparty view against the PBOC. If they all decided to either buy or sell the dollar, it would push the USD/CNY exchange rate around hugely. In short, the aim is for stability over all else, even if that means opacity.

Or, it could perhaps mean there could be a sharp devaluation, or appreciation, ahead: opacity is exactly the space in which these kinds of speculation will occur, especially on the back of recent weak data suggesting the need for more stimulus in a debt-constrained economy. Indeed, there is an obvious trade-off for this FX stability: it won’t help internationalize CNY. Foreign firms and CFOs are not going to enjoy FX opacity when doing their balance-sheet planning. Even if they continue to forecast CNY, if their Chinese counterparties have very different views due to an information gap, this will ironically create potential FX volatility!

Logically, the best way to keep long-run FX stability and to internationalize CNY is to make sure the currency is trading in line with its fundamentals. Yet even that implies volatility, because fundamentals change. For example, there are valid arguments CNY is too weak right now given the trade and capital inflows being seen – yet China does not seem to want a stronger currency for a variety of reasons; and there are equally valid views CNY will be much weaker in the future given the pressing domestic and external issues China is grappling with – but not too far, or too fast, it would seem. Which means the remaining logical conclusion if you want a stable, international currency is to make sure the fundamentals are favorable for its strength. Yet this is both a domestic and an external issue, and they are linked.

On that external front, and linked to FX markets even if FX markets can’t yet link to it, see the front page of the Financial Times: “US Builds Bulwark Against China with UK-Australia Security Pact; or, as the Guardian puts it: “US, UK and Australia forge military alliance to counter China”. In short, we now have a new global security pact “AUKUS”, which will see deep military integration between $22.7trn US GDP/331m people, $3.1trn UK GDP/68m people, and $1.6trn Aussie GDP/25m people. The pact includes Australia dropping a 2017 contract with France to build diesel-powered subs in favour of US nuclear-powered ones to be built in Adelaide. There will also be deep trilateral co-operation on new technologies such as cyber, AI, and Quantum, and no doubt across a growing number of other industrial sectors, as well as regional foreign policy. Might Canada also sign up after its looming election? Meanwhile, on 24 September the White House is holding an in-person Quad meeting with Japan ($5.4trn GDP/126m people) and India ($3.1trn GDP/1,381m people) joining in.

Yes, AUKUS (+Japan+India) is no integrated bloc like the EU, which saw an ebullient State of the Union address yesterday talking about building a domestic semiconductor ecosystem. Yet once again ‘precise predictions were replaced by ranges or vague statements’, and that EU goal will require a shift to industrial policy and protectionism just as AUKUS (+Japan+India) opens the door to larger-scale military-industrial policy, which is where all the cutting edge R&D actually occurs.  

“The world is a jungle,” the former French ambassador to Washington, Gérard Araud, observed on Twitter. “France has just been reminded this bitter truth by the way the US and the UK have stabbed her in the back in Australia. C’est la vie.” When the rest of the EU sees the Indo-Pacific is where US and UK military energies are now focused, not Europe/Russia, they will no doubt agree. One would imagine China’s retort will be sharper – and fuzzier to forecast for Wall Street(?)

And in the region, today saw a bumper 2.7% q/q, if lopsided, Q2 Kiwi GDP number, which is some consolation for them not being invited to join AUKUS. It also suggests the RBNZ may indeed start to hike rates ahead despite the wobbles in Chinese retail (and in shares of infant milk formula firms), which will make the AUD/NZD cross interesting if so. We also had the always-fuzzy Aussie jobs number, which saw a print of -146K under lockdown vs. -80K expected, but with the unemployment rate confusingly dropping to just 4.5%. There were far worse whisper numbers out there – but this is not a rate-hiking number. At least there is the prospect of lots of maritime/engineering jobs in Adelaide ahead to help diversify and fortify the economy.

END

7. OIL ISSUES

Propane prices soar as inventory concerns mount ahead of the winter

(zerohedge)

Propane Prices Soar As Inventory Concerns Mount Ahead Of Winter

 
WEDNESDAY, SEP 15, 2021 – 09:20 PM

Spot propane prices at Mont Belvieu, Texas, have reached their highest levels since 2014 ahead of the winter season on fears of low inventory. Energy inflation could be problematic for commercial and residential users of the fuel that heats building structures and powers vehicles, gas grills, patio heaters, generators, among many other uses. 

Propane is set up for a volatile ride this fall/winter season as supplies are about 20% below the five-year average for this time of year. The most recent U.S. Energy Department data shows inventories of around 70.8 million barrels.

The propane surge also comes from the rise in natural gas and crude prices. Propane is a byproduct of natgas production and petroleum-refining processes. About 80% of U.S. propane is a byproduct from natgas. 

At Mont Belvieu, Texas, spot propane prices are up more than 60% this year, reaching levels not seen since 2014. Energy inflation will cause headaches for the 5% of U.S. households that heavily rely on the fuel that heats their homes. 

Propane prices are coming to an inflection point in terms of seasonality. 

Taking all of this into account, one can only hope the energy crisis in Europe of low natural gas supplies and record-high prices doesn’t spread to the U.S.

end

This is the height of insanity!! Biden shutters  pipelines and then is totally baffled when gas prices rise

Quoth/Fringe Fance

Democrat Insanity Peaks As Biden Shutters Pipelines Then Is Baffled When Gas Prices Rise

 
FRIDAY, SEP 17, 2021 – 12:53 PM

Submitted by Quoth the Raven from QTR’s Fringe Finance: http://quoththeraven.substack.com,

The fact that Democrats just can’t seem to grasp the basic laws of economics is both a tragedy for the nation and wonderful fodder if you run a podcast and a blog that capitalize on pointing out hypocrisy, ignorance and idiocy.

The latest installment in “Keynesians futilely attempting to understand such complex topics as supply and demand” comes from the Biden administration who, like a witless dog chasing its own tail, has helped create the problem of high oil prices and now can’t seem to figure out where to place the blame.

The “confusion” about why gas prices are so high might be warranted if Democrats hadn’t made a cornerstone of their political identity an incessant railing and bastardization of the oil and gas industry at almost every opportunity they get.

Meanwhile, most Democrats can still be found driving around in their gas powered vehicles, flying first class in gas powered jets and using plastic made from petroleum on a daily basis. Which reminds me: have you ordered your custom “AOC for President” reusable Starbucks cup yet?

But it goes from an example of just ignorance to the definition of lobotomized insanity as one sits and watches the Biden administration, literally weeks after vowing to end drilling, coming out and wondering why the price of gas is rising.

I mean, for fuck’s sake. This was the headline yesterday:

And this was a headline from a couple weeks ago:

Which came about 9 months after this headline at the beginning of the year:

And then there was this, from a couple ago:

Which led to this:

And who can forget this comment, from Biden’s campaign during the debates leading up to the 2020 election?

During the second Democratic debate on July 31, Dana Bash asked the former vice president “would there be any place for fossil fuels, including coal and fracking, in a Biden administration?”

“No, we would, we would work it out,” Biden responded. “We would make sure it’s eliminated and no more subsidies for either one of those, either — any fossil fuel.” 

On March 15, during the eleventh and final democratic debate, Joe Biden said “no more subsidies for [the] fossil fuel industry. No more drilling on federal lands. No more drilling, including offshore. No ability for the oil industry to continue to drill, period.”

Given all of the crystal clear examples of why oil and gas prices might be rising, you’d think that President Biden would get the message loud and clear that he’s part of the problem.

But instead of simply opening his eyes and realizing that his left hand doesn’t know what his right hand is doing (and that he likely doesn’t know what day, week, month or year it is) – Biden instead has, like Democrats love to do – concocted a ridiculous explanation about “evil” Wall Street and corporate mergers to justify his own idiocy.

From World Oil and Gas about 2 weeks ago:

That’s right: instead of just looking at supply and demand, Biden’s administration is instead looking at “gas station franchises” and “retail fuel stations”.

The Federal Trade Commission is examining ways to crack down on mergers in the oil and gas industry and investigate whether gas station franchises are driving up gas prices as part of a Biden administration effort to combat higher costs at the pump.

FTC Chair Lina Khan is directing staff to identify new legal theories to challenge retail fuel station deals and investigate possible collusion by national chains to push up prices, she said in an Aug. 25 letter to White House economic adviser Brian Deese obtained by Bloomberg News.

“I will be taking steps to deter unlawful mergers in the oil and gas industry,” Khan said. “Over the last few decades, retail fuel station chains have repeatedly proposed illegal mergers, suggesting that the agency’s approach has not deterred firms from proposing anticompetitive transactions in the first place.”

Because we’re sure your local Lukoil owner raising the price of premium by 9 cents has a drastic effect on Crude oil futures and the quadrillions of barrels OPEC produces every 12 seconds.

And while this all makes for a laugh, the implications from this kind of ignorance for the nation on a grander scale could eventually become devastating.

Zooming out from this example and putting aside the time, resources, money and “brainpower” (if you can call it that) being used to “figure out” this problem, this type of economic ignorance on a macro scale is what could really get us into trouble.

Ignoring the basic tenants of economics and further continuing to embrace Modern Monetary Theory because you are under the extremely misguided and arrogant notion that we deserve to be financially comfortable all the time – whether it means stocks always going up or oil always being cheap – is a recipe for disaster. I pointed that out in my recent article about “the squad” looking to replace Jerome Powell.

In the interim, we are going to print the dollar into oblivion, tax the country to a point where what little productivity we have left winds up disappearing and moving elsewhere and we will continue to berate and scold the very corporations that provide us with the products and services that ensure our quality of life on a daily basis.

Sadly, it won’t hit home for some Democrats until they aren’t able to get their morning Frappuccino on Capitol Hill.

If there would be bipartisan ground that one would hope politicians could meet on, it would be everybody having to pass an ECON 101 course. Because as the quirky hilarity from the left drifts down the slope into becoming more dangerous and less of a punchline, all it does is help forgo the next inevitable crisis.

And, every day that passes without a crisis guarantees that it will be an order of magnitude more devastating when it finally does occur.

Oh and can somebody please wake President Biden up and show him this chart? I’ve got other things to do today.

*  *  *

8 EMERGING MARKET& AUSTRALIA ISSUES

Australia////COVID/VACCINES

 
 

END

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings FRIDAY  morning 7:30 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1779 UP .0015 /EUROPE BOURSES /ALL MIXED

USA/ YEN 109.99  UP  0.294 /NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.3793  DOWN   0.0005  

USA/CAN 1.2666  DOWN .0016  (  CDN DOLLAR UP 16 BASIS PTS )

Early FRIDAY morning in Europe, the Euro IS UP BY 15 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.1779 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 6.87 PTS OR 0.14%

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 252.91 PTS OR 1.03%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.73% // EUROPEAN BOURSES OPENED ALL MIXED 

Trading from Europe and ASIA

EUROPEAN BOURSES CLOSED ALL MIXED

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG  CLOSED UP 252.91    PTS OR 1.03% 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 6.87  PTS OR 0.14%

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN  0.73%

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 153.39 pts or 0.52%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1759.65

silver:$22.98-

Early FRIDAY morning USA 10 year bond yr: 1.344% !!! UP 1 IN POINTS from THURSDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

The 30 yr bond yield 1.888 DUP 1  IN BASIS POINTS from THURSDAY night.

USA dollar index early FRIDAY morning: 92.85 DOWN 8  CENT(S) from THURSDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers FRIDAY MORNING

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And now your closing  FRIDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.26%  UP 1  in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.050% DOWN 14/10   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.36%//  UP 2  in basis points yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:  0.72  UP 2   points in basis points yield from yesterday./

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 36 points higher than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES TO –.276% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.00% AND NOW ABOVE   THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR  FRIDAY

Closing currency crosses for FRIDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1734  UP    0.0031 or 31 basis points

USA/Japan: 109.91  UP .204 OR YEN UP 20  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3751 DOWN 0046 DOWN 46   BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 66 basis points to 1.2747

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The USA/Yuan,  CNY: closed    ON SHORE  (CLOSED DOWN).. 6.4662 

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)..6.276

TURKISH LIRA:  8.44  EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.050%

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 4 IN basis points from THURSDAY at 1.379 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 1.917 UP 3 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 93.13 UP 3  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for FRIDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 83,46 PTS OR 1.19% 

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 161.58 PTS OR 1.03% 

Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 52.40  PTS OR  0.79% 

Spain IBEX CLOSED  UP 27.20  PTS OR  0.31%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 254.37 PTS OR 0.98% 

WTI Oil price; 72.48 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 75.71 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE FALLS:    72.82  THE CROSS HIGHER BY 0.32 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE LOWER BY 32 BASIS PTS)

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES  TO –.276 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM : 72.00//

BRENT :  75.31

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 1.376.. UP 4 basis points…

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 1.909  UP 3  basis points..

EURO/USA 1.1729 down 0.0026   ( 26 BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:109.95 UP .256 ( YEN DOWN 26 BASIS POINTS/..

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 92.21 UP 27  cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA: 1.3735 DOWN .0063  

the Turkish lira close: 8.65  DOWN 21 BASIS PTS

the Russian rouble 72.86  DOWN   .37 Roubles against the uSA dollar. (DOWN371 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.2754 DOWN 73 BASIS pts

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.276%

The Dow closed DOWN 137.96 POINTS OR 0.48%

NASDAQ closed DOWN 137.96 POINTS OR 0.91%

VOLATILITY INDEX:  21,29 CLOSED UP 2.60

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 0.116

%//libor dropping like a stone

USA trading day in Graph Form

Stocks Stumble For 2nd Straight Week Amid Debt Ceiling Doubts, FOMC Fears, & Gamma Unclench

BY TYLER DURDEN
FRIDAY, SEP 17, 2021 – 04:00 PM

The usual avalanche of debt-ceiling fearmongering has begun (which of course will continue until 1 second before the deadline when an agreement will suddenly be found) and that along with anxiety ahead of next week’s FOMC and today’s gamma unclenching from quad witch expirations did not help dip-buyers save stocks for the week.

Nasdaq was the week’s biggest loser and a late-day buying spree into the OpEx pushed Small Caps into the green barely for the week…

Energy stocks massively outperformed on the week while Materials were the big laggards…

Source: Bloomberg

But anxiety remains as Debt Ceiling doubts have created quite the kink in the bills curve…

Source: Bloomberg

And pushed the anxiety proxy to cycle highs…

Source: Bloomberg

Analysts at Eurasia Group, a political risk consultancy, suggested the dangers for investors are significant.

Republican intransigence over increasing the debt limit and Democratic overconfidence that they will be able to pressure Republicans into doing so is creating unusually high risks of the U.S. crossing into a technical default on its debt sometime in late October,” they wrote in a note on Thursday.

“Congress will at some point increase the debt ceiling, but it may require the pressure of a technical default and market sell-off to get there,” the Eurasia Group team also said.

“Based on our analysis of the incentive structure of both sides at this time, we see that risk at 20%.”

In fact, the market is finally starting to reflect the chance of a technical default – albeit still small – as short-term USA default risk spiked dramatically this week (NOTE in Oct 2015, USA 1Y CDS spiked to 40bps)…

Source: Bloomberg

For now, it seems everyone is just full of Fed liquidity-based optimism…

The S&P 500 fell back below its 50DMA after an initial bounce (something we haven’t seen recently on these bounces as we note that ~30% of SPX gamma expired at today’s open and 60% of SPY, 35% of QQQ, and a very large set of stock options expired on the close)…

The Dow is back at/below its 100DMA and Small Caps are hovering around their 50DMA.

VIX spiked back above 20 as hedgers piled in ahead of next week’s FOMC…

Both Defensives and Cyclicals were lower this week – modest rotation midweek, but by the close, pretty systemic selling…

Source: Bloomberg

The Dollar surged further today, extending the week’s gains to erase all losses from Jay Powell’s Jackson Hole speech…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields were all higher on the week, led by the belly (5Y +6bps, 30Y +0.5bps)…

Source: Bloomberg

10Y Yields spiked further to a key resistance level this week…

Source: Bloomberg

And 10Y Yields broke back above their 200DMA…

Source: Bloomberg

30Y Yields spiked up to their 50DMA today and found resistance…

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos were broadly higher on the week with Bitcoin and Ethereum up around 5%. Litecoin ended the week up 4.5% after the Walmart partnership fake news spiked it 35% on Monday…

Source: Bloomberg

Big gains in the dollar this week weighed on ‘some’ commodities with copper and PMs down but the energy complex rallied with crude up significantly…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold fell back below $1800…

Silver was clubbed like a baby seal back below $23…

WTI rallied back above $72 this week…

And Nattie exploded higher recently, only to tumble today…

Finally, amid all that vol in commodity-land, CPI this week, and today’s UMich inflation expectations, Stagflation remains the big worry

Source: Bloomberg

Get back to work Mr.Powell!

MORNING TRADING

end

ii)  USA///INFLATION WATCH

end

USA ECONOMIC DATA

Thursday: USA retail sales unexpectedly rebound in August. In my opinion, they were totally fudged

(zerohedge)

US Retail Sales Unexpectedly Rebound In August, Despite Slump In Car Sales

 
THURSDAY, SEP 16, 2021 – 08:37 AM

Having flip-flopped between expansion and contraction for the last four months – post-stimmy – analysts expected retail sales to drop in August for the second straight month as Delta fearmongering tamped down any recovery enthusiasm (though we note that BofA expected a rebound – and they have been spot on with their guesses all year).

And once again they were right as August retail sales jumped 0.7% MoM (completely smashing the expectation of 0.7% MoM drop), but we do temper our enthusiasm by the fact that July’s data was revised dramatically lower (from -1.1% MoM to -1.8% MoM)…

Source: Bloomberg

The rest of the retail sales data also smashed expectations

  • Retail Sales Ex Autos +1.8% MoM vs 0.0% Exp

  • Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas +2.0% MoM vs 0.0% Exp

  • Retail Sales Control Group +2.5% vs 0.0% Exp.

Despite the beat, Motor Vehicles, Electronics, and Sporting Goods all saw sales plunge MoM…

With stimmies having dried up, the question is whether the post-COVID-lockdown surge in retail sales will inevitably suffer a hangover return to trend?

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, we note that the retail inventory-to-sales ratio has completely decoupled from anything that has come before…

Source: Bloomberg

How does this resolve itself? Pent-up demand-driven surge in inventories – which sparks even more inflation – or reversion-to-the-norm retail sales as stimmies run dry?

END

We now have over 12 million Americans back on the dole

(zerohedge)

Ida Sends Number Of Americans On The Dole Back Above 12 Million

 
THURSDAY, SEP 16, 2021 – 08:44 AM

Initial jobless claims rose last week (potentially impacted by Hurricane Ida), up from 312k to 332k…

Source: Bloomberg

Louisiana (Ida!?), Arizona, and DC saw the biggest increases in claims while Illinois, Ohio, and Texas saw the biggest decreases…

And it appears the impact of Ida has sent the number of Americans on some form of government dole back above 12 million…

…with Pandemic claims rising?…

So retail sales rose but the labor market worsened… a goldilocks report for The Fed next week, maybe?

end

IMPORTANT USA//VACCINE

a must view:  Brandon Smith states that we must fight back against the Biden COVID tryanny

(Brandon Smith//a must read)

Brandon Smith: How States And Communities Can Fight Back Against Biden’s COVID Tyranny

 
WEDNESDAY, SEP 15, 2021 – 11:40 PM

Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.us,

A war is coming. I have heard it argued that this war must be avoided; that it is “exactly what the establishment wants.” I disagree. I think globalists like those at the World Economic Forum certainly want enough chaos to provide cover for the implementation of their global “Reset” agenda, but they don’t want a full blown rebellion. They only want events in which the outcome is controllable or predictable – They do not want a massive organized resistance that might surprise them.

Ultimately it doesn’t matter because the war is already at our doorstep. A person has two choices: Fight or be enslaved. There is no third option. There is no walking away. There is no hiding from it and there is no passive solution to it.

Joe Biden’s recent declaration of a federal level nationwide vaccine mandate has all but ensured that conflict is inevitable. Why?  Because it is the first major step towards a two-tier society in which the unvaxxed are cut out of the economy. The next step? Forced vaccinations under threat of fines and imprisonment, the threat of confiscation of one’s children, or vaccination at the barrel of a gun. Needless to say, this was not at all surprising to me. In December of last year I published an article titled ‘If You Thought 2020 Was Bad, Watch What Happens In 2021’, stating that:

There will then be a major push to require medical passports proving a person is not infected to enter into any public place. This means submission to 24/7 contact tracing or getting a new vaccine whenever ordered to. Basically, your life will be under the total control of state or federal governments if you want to have any semblance of returning to your normal life…..New mutations of COVID-19 will be conveniently found every year from now on, meaning the public will have to get new vaccinations constantly, and medical tyranny will never go away unless people take an aggressive stand.”

I have also mentioned often in the past that Biden WOULD institute federal level vaccines mandates and possibly even Level 4 lockdowns. We are not to the point yet of lockdowns by executive order, but the Biden Administration is trying to dive headlong into the control agenda with an executive order stating that all businesses in the US with 100 employees or more must require those employees to provide proof of vaccination or demand employees show a negative covid test weekly (which will be impossible for most people). In other words, the Orwellian rise of vaccine passports has officially begun in the US.

Not only was Biden’s announcement an utter violation of the Constitution and the Bill of Rights, it was also condescending and vitriolic towards Americans who refuse to become guinea pigs for the experimental and untested vaccines. Biden suggested that the establishment “Has been patient, but their patience is wearing thin.”

I have to say, Biden is in for a shock if he thinks we care.

I can’t cover every single lie and logical fallacy in Biden’s speech because that is not the purpose of this article. I can only once again point out some very basic logical conclusions and pieces of scientific evidence which debunk most of Biden’s nonsensical blather. Since he seems to be so interested in why we are “hesitant”, let’s go through this ONE MORE TIME, shall we…

1) The median death rate of covid according to almost every single medical study and every official government tally remains at 0.26% of the infected. Given that around 40% of all covid deaths happen among people in nursing homes with preexisting conditions, it is likely that the actual death rate is much lower. But let’s just say that it is in fact 0.26% – Why is there any need to impose draconian medical controls over a virus that 99.7% of people will easily survive? Why not create a support fund for the 0.26% of people that are truly at risk so they can stay home while the rest of us get on with regular life?

2) Throughout the course of the pandemic in the US the largest percentage of hospital ICU beds that have been occupied by covid patients is 17%. That is the PEAK of covid in the ICUs. For the past few months the percentage has been closer to an average of 8% or less. This is according to the government’s own stats, which the CDC now buries instead of posting openly for easy viewing by the public. So, when the corporate media or Biden claims that the ICUs are “overwhelmed” by covid patients, this is a lie

A new nationwide study of electronic hospital records on covid patients also shows nearly half of covid “hospitalizations” are actually people that are asymptomatic, not deathly sick people as the media often portrays.

3) The experimental mRNA covid vaccines have NO long term testing to prove their safety over the long term. At least none that has ever been released to the public. The average vaccine is tested for 10-15 years before it is approved and released for use in humans. The covid vaccines were rolled out in mere months. Again, there is NO PROOF whatsoever that the covid vaccines are safe in the long term, and there are already a number of examples of lack of safety in the short term. Why would we trust an experimental protein spike vax that has nowhere near the same testing history as the majority of other normal vaccines?

4) Multiple studies in nations with high rates of vaccination, including a recent study from Israel, prove that there is no such thing as a “pandemic of the unvaccinated.” In fact, 60% of infection cases in Israel are actually fully vaccinated people. Furthermore, Israel has found that vaccinated people are 13-27 times more likely to get infected than people with natural immunity, and they are 8 times more likely to end up in ICU.

These findings reinforce data released a month ago out of Massachusetts, where 5100 covid infections were fully vaccinated people and 80 of them died. In other words, the vaccines don’t work so great, especially when compared to natural immunity.

5) Data from the Public Health England and the NHS shows that the vaccinated and unvaccinated have almost identical rate of infectiousness. In other words, a vaccinated person is almost as likely to give you covid as an unvaxxed person.

Now, let’s present some rational questions in the face of this irrational covid circus of fear:

If the experimental vaccines actually work, then how are unvaccinated people a threat to vaccinated people and why should unvaccinated people be forced to take the jab?

If the vaccines don’t work, then, again, why should ANYONE be forced to take an untested and unreliable vax?

Slow-Joe argues that the vaccinations are “safe and effective” against covid, but only seconds later in the same breath he claims that “unvaxxed people are a threat to vaccinated people.” He promotes the lie that this is a “pandemic of the unvaccinated”, then says the vaccinated are in danger. Even a child could pick up on the inherent contradictions in Biden’s claims.

As always, the issue of “mutations” is brought up in defense of 100% vaccination campaigns. But if “mutations” are the concern, then why isn’t the government addressing the fact that a vaccinated population is just as likely if not more likely to create mutant variants of a virus when compared to unvaccinated people? Why are the unvaxxed being singled out as the supposed menace to society?

The biggest question is – Why should anyone submit to covid mandates at all? Mandates are not laws, they are color of law restrictions without legal merit. The bottom line? Unconstitutional orders are not to be followed. This leads us to the state and local strategies for fighting back against the federal passport mandates. Let’s get into it:

Simply Ignore The Mandates And Carry On With Life As Normal

How does Biden plan to enforce these mandates on businesses? If they refuse to go along to get along, what can he do about it? Who would he send to threaten or punish these businesses? Who would be dumb enough to follow that order? Does he plan to send the IRS, the FBI, the Health Department? Someone has to do it, right? And what happens when a business is threatened and a crowd of conservatives in the community come to its defense? What happens when local and state law enforcement get in the way of federal agencies? What is Biden going to do about that? Answer – Nothing, at least not anything direct.

The Indirect Method Works Both Ways

If Biden is confronted with solid resistance to the passports in communities and states, there is really only one path he has left, which is indirect pressure through economic penalties. Biden WILL attempt to force states to comply by cutting of federal funds and tax dollars. This idea might terrify some people because there is a percentage of the population in every state that relies on federal EBT and other programs for their survival. However, the federal government can be punished in the same way just as easily by the states. Let me explain…

Confiscate Federal Lands And Resources

Any state that is cut off from its rightful share of tax dollars can easily claim domain over federal lands and the resources on them. It is the EPA restrictions on these lands that have been unfairly used to kill numerous industries across the country. With proper management, these resources can be used to revitalize state economies and offset any federal funds lost.

Offer Businesses Federal Tax Exemptions If They Relocate

Red states can also punish the federal government by stopping IRS tax collections within their borders and turning the tables on Biden. Numerous businesses would be itching to escape Biden’s high tax rates and would bring jobs and wealth into red states, leaving the conformist blue states in the dust.

Boot Federal Agencies Out Of The State Or County

Local law enforcement is refusing to enforce mandates in many places, which is a good start, but eventually sheriffs and communities may have to remove federal presence entirely in order to stop violations if civil liberties.

Offer Safe Havens For Military Personnel That Go AWOL To Avoid Forced Vaccination

A large percentage of soldiers say they will not comply with federal vax requirements and this is completely understandable given the evidence I just presented above. It would be to the benefit of red states to offer protection for soldiers that leave the military based on the principle of health autonomy. Perhaps they could even help in forming state militias…

Reduce Restrictions On Medical Treatment Facilities – Start Vax Free Clinics

30% to 40% of medical professional depending on the state say they will not take the experimental vax, and they are willing to lose their jobs in the process. Why not get these people with valuable medical skills to come to red states and counties and let them set up clinics outside of suffocating federal regulations? This may even reduce the prices on medical care in many cases.

Form Trade Relationships With Other Free States

Conservatives and constitutionalists need to organize and unify, and the best way to do this is to start with trade. It is likely that Biden will attempt to interfere with imports and the supply chain when it comes to red states, so they will need to stick together economically in order to prevent disruptions to the availability of goods. We need to rethink how states interact with each other and build more independent production and trade instead of relying on overseas suppliers. We will also need commodity backed banks with commodity backed currencies, because the buying power of the US dollar isn’t going to last much longer anyway.

Unify For Defense

If Biden and the globalists continue to push for medical tyranny in states and counties that do not want it, there will eventually be calls for secession. There will also be attempts by blue states to restrict the travel of people from red states using covid passport checkpoints. We all know this is coming. All conservative counties should be organizing localized security through public militias, and state governments should be thinking along these lines as well. If there’s one thing authoritarians HATE more than anything else it is suffering the existence of free neighbors. They will try to stop us from being free, and we must be ready to answer their violence with our own.

Finally, I would like to speak to Joe Biden directly, since Joe was so keen on personally addressing us:

Joe, let me clarify this in the simplest terms possible so that you can grasp it – You are not important. You are not a lawmaker and you are not a ruler, you are an employee of the American people, that is all your are supposed to be. And though you may wish to be a dictator, that’s not going to happen. We will not allow it. I realize that you are a puppet and that your globalist handlers make most of your decisions and write most of your statements for you, so you can pass this message on to them as well: WE WILL NOT COMPLY. It’s not going to happen. Get used to the idea.

We are peaceful people and always have been. Our tolerance of your trespasses thus far is proof of that. But do not mistake our peacefulness as weakness. If you keep coming after us, you will regret it. We will teach you an important lesson in humility; a lesson you and your elitist friends sorely need and will not enjoy. This is a promise.

END

Goldman Sachs:  the Biden Mandate will only booster the number of vaccinated in the USA by 12 million

(zerohedge)

Biden Mandate Will Only Boost Number Of Vaccinated By 12 Million: Goldman

 
WEDNESDAY, SEP 15, 2021 – 07:20 PM

Now that President Biden has abandoned his promise not to impose vaccine mandates on working Americans, Wall Street investment banks are trying to guess how Biden’s new mandates for federal workers – and his administration’s request that all private employers with more than 100 employees impose a similar requirement – will increase the level of vaccine-induced immunity.

Unfortunately for Biden, a team of analysts at Goldman has run the numbers, and they’re saying the impact of Biden’s new program will probably be limited: Goldman estimates that the requirements will apply to about 25MM currently unvaccinated individuals, and boost the number of vaccinated individuals by 12MM (or 3.6% of the total population) through March next year.

Ultimately, Goldman expects 82% of the total population (and 90% of adults) to be vaccinated with a first dose by mid-2022.

What’s more, Goldman sees some downside employment risk in the near term, as 7MM affected workers report that they will definitely not get the vaccine, while mandates imposed earlier this summer caused some to leave their jobs.

According to Biden’s edicts, federal workers have 75 days to comply with the vaccine mandate, and although the DOL rule has not yet been issued, we expect private businesses will be given a similar time period to comply, suggesting the rule could become binding in late-2021 or early-2022. Although the vaccine mandate will likely be challenged in court, the administration appears to believe it falls within OSHA’s authority (even if enforcement proves difficult).

Goldman’s approach to estimating the impact of Biden’s order is based on the impact of French President Emanuel Macron’s immunity pass. equires proof of vaccination, immunity, or a negative test to get into restaurants, bars, hospitals, and public transportation or to work at a public venue. Although France’s immunity pass is mostly tied to spending rather than to work, it imposes similar vaccine/testing requirements to engage in normal economic life. The introduction of the vaccine passport in early July led to a sharp re-acceleration in the pace of first dose vaccinations in France, as shown by the chart above.

Goldman’s alternate approach to projecting the impact of the order combines data from Census Household Pulse Survey on the shares of working individuals that are unvaccinated and “will probably not get it”, that “will definitely not get it,” or that are unvaccinated for other reasons, with an adjustment for individuals that misreport their vaccination status.

Coupled with assumptions on the mandate-driven increase in the vaccination for each of these three groups, this approach implies that the requirements will boost the vaccination rate by just over 3pp by March next year. Averaging both approaches, we estimate that the new requirements will boost the number of vaccinated individuals by 12mn, or 3.6% of the total population.

Incorporating these estimates, the recent somewhat faster-than-expected vaccination pace, and assuming that vaccinations for children ages 5-11 are approved in November, we now expect 82% of the total population (and 90% of adults) to be vaccinated with a first dose by mid-2022, as the chart below shows.

As for the order’s impact on the labor market, while growing vaccination rates might convince some (at-risk) people that it’s finally safe to return to the work force, it’s more likely that Biden’s edict will lead to at least some employment reallocation this fall as vaccine-resisters search for jobs at smaller companies not subject to the mandate.

Of course there is still a significant amount of uncertainty regarding the implementation of Biden’s mandate, including when and how strictly it will be enforced. At the very least, these projections will give us a chance to look back in three months and see how misguided – or perhaps how uncannily correct – they were.

END

Alan Dershowitz;  the courts will rule against the Biden vaccine mandate but will it be too late

(Phillips/EpochTimes)

Courts Will Rule Against Biden On Vaccine Mandate Penalties: Alan Dershowitz

 
WEDNESDAY, SEP 15, 2021 – 05:00 PM

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times,

Courts will likely agree that the federal government has the authority to enforce COVID-19 vaccine mandates but will argue that the rules and penalties cannot be enforced, said Harvard Law School professor emeritus Alan Dershowitz.

President Joe Biden last week said that he will direct the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) to mandate that employees at companies with 100 or more workers will have to either submit to weekly testing or get the COVID-19 vaccine. White House officials have said that fines will be handed down to those who don’t comply with the rule, which will impact about 80 million private-sector employees.

“No. 1, is this something the federal government can do as compared to the states?” Dershowitz told Newsmax.

“The states have police power. The federal government doesn’t have police power. The federal government’s powers have to derive from the text of the Constitution.”

It’s likely that courts will say that the government can enforce vaccine mandates but will argue that it is only Congress that can order punishments and fines, he said.

“I think the courts will say the federal government does have the power because this is a national issue across the state lines. It’s not limited to states. It’s contagious,” Dershowitz said. 

“I think they will say that in the event that science supports it, there can be mandated vaccinations with exceptions.”

But such mandates are “generally relegated to the legislature in our system of government, so I think the courts will focus on that issue first and say that the president may not have the authority to do this without congressional authorization,” Dershowitz said.

“You can’t say it’s an emergency,” he continued.

“This problem has existed since the first day of the Biden administration, and it will continue to exist on the last day of the Biden administration because we’re not going to see an end of COVID.”

Dershowitz added: 

“We’re going to see COVID become like the flu. Seasonal different variations, different vaccinations, so it shouldn’t be done under the rubric of emergency. It should be done under the rubric of ordinary congressional power.”

When the mandates are handed down to companies under Biden’s order, Dershowitz said that it will be a “big payday for lawyers” who will likely file numerous lawsuits on behalf of businesses and other entities.

“There will be individuals who will be fired, and they’ll sue immediately,” he also remarked. “There will be companies—and I know there are some already who said we refuse to obey this mandate—and we’ve had companies and states indicate they’re going to file suit.”

END

For your interest….

Unvaccinated Buffalo Bills Fans To Be Banned From Home Games

 
WEDNESDAY, SEP 15, 2021 – 05:20 PM

Just days after season ticket holders coughed up thousands of dollars, a poorly timed announcement by the Buffalo Bills told fans that proof of COVID vaccination would be required to attend games at Highmark Stadium this season. According to ESPN, the Bills are the fourth team to urge fans to be fully vaccinated if they want to attend. 

The timeline of the new vaccine policy is important. It appears gradual enforcement begins Sept. 23 and Oct. 3 games, where fans must show proof of at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccination. By Oct. 31, fans with two doses will only be permitted into the stadium.

“Guests will be permitted to enter with one dose of a COVID-19 vaccination for the Sept. 26 and October 3rd games.

“Starting on the Oct. 31 game, guests must be fully vaccinated for entry. Guests are considered fully vaccinated two weeks after their second dose in a two-dose series, such as the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines, or two weeks after a single dose vaccine, such as Johnson & Johnson’s vaccine,” a statement from the team read. 

“If you do not want to get vaccinated … that does not give you a right to go to a football game or a hockey game,” Erie County Executive Mark Poloncarz said.

“If you want to go to the games, get vaccinated.”

Season ticket holders who bought their tickets well in advance are now in a conundrum if they’re not vaxxed. Some social media Bills fans said they would be reselling their tickets, while others said they would be more inclined to tailgate in the Bills Mafia parking lot, where no vaxx passes are needed. 

Poloncarz said the county has been experiencing some of the highest infection rates of the virus since April. He said the team decided on the new policy after complying with Erie County Department of Health directives.

The Buffalo Bills join three other teams: New Orleans, Seattle, and Las Vegas, who request fans to be fully vaccinated if they want to attend. The Saints and Seahawks also recognize a negative test for entry, while the Raiders do not.

The Bills’ move also comes one week after Dr. Anthony Fauci joined CNN’s Jim Sciutto in a television interview. Fauci seemed disturbed about the kickoff of football season at crowded college and NFL stadiums around the country amid outbreaks of COVID. He told Sciutto that he doesn’t think it’s a brilliant idea for people to attend these sporting events. 

“I don’t think it’s smart,” Fauci said.

“Outdoors is always better than indoors, but even when you have such a congregate setting of people close together – first, you should be vaccinated. And when you do have congregate settings, particularly indoors, you should be wearing a mask.”

“We could be stuck in outbreak mode, and that’s why I think what you’re going to be seeing is…a lot more local mandates,” he warned.

What’s surprising is that vaccine mandates, if it’s at Highmark Stadium or other arenas or promoted by Fauci, have one similar thing: they discriminate against those with natural immunity. We’ve noted that Harvard Medical School professor Martin Kulldorff recently made the case that “natural immune protection that develops after a SARS-CoV-2 infection offers considerably more of a shield against the Delta variant of the pandemic coronavirus than two doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine.” 

Here’s more on how Bills fans are reacting to the new vaccine mandate:

END
terrible!! leaked zoom video exposes hospital officials COVID 19 scare tactics
(McGregor/Epoch Times)

Leaked Zoom Video Exposes Hospital Officials Discussing COVID-19 Scare Tactics

 
THURSDAY, SEP 16, 2021 – 08:54 AM

Authored by Matt McGregor via The Epoch Times,

A leaked Zoom conference reveals a doctor questioning how to increase the count of COVID-19 patient numbers on the hospital’s dashboard report.

The media outlet National File said it obtained the recording from an “internal source” at the Novant Health System that includes New Hanover Regional Medical Center in Wilmington, North Carolina.

National File posted the video on its Twitter feed on Sept. 10.

National File and other local media outlets that reported on the leak identified the people in the video as Mary Kathryn Rudyk, a physician at the medical center, who is asking Carolyn Fisher, the hospital’s director of marketing, how to inflate the number of people classified as COVID-19 patients for the purpose of generating fear in the unvaccinated.

“I think we have to be more blunt, we have to be more forceful – we have to say something coming out – if you don’t get vaccinated, you know you are going to die,” Rudyk said in the video.

“Let’s just be really blunt to these people.”

The video begins with Fisher explaining how her department is communicating “meaningful numbers”—the percentage of the unvaccinated, vaccinated, and percentage of deaths in the Intensive Care Unit (ICU)—to the public.

Rudyk then asked how post-COVID cases can be included in the number of people hospitalized for COVID-19.

“My feeling at this point in time is that maybe we need to be completely a little bit more scary for the public,” Rudyk said.

“There are many people still hospitalized that we’re considering post-COVID, but we are not counting in those numbers, so how do we include those post-COVID people in the numbers of patients we have in the hospital?”

Fisher asked if she meant every patient who has been in the hospital “since the beginning of COVID?”

Rudyk answered, “Well, that are still in, and that’s something I can take to someone else, but I think those are important numbers: the patients that are still in the hospital, that are off the COVID floor, but still are occupying the hospital for a variety of reasons.”

Also on the Zoom conference call was Shelbourn Stevens, president of New Hanover Regional Medical Center, who said those patients are classified as “recovered.”

“But I do think, from our standpoint, we would still consider them a COVID patient because they’re still healing,” Stevens said.

Rudyk said she thinks those patients need to be “highlighted as well, because once they’re off isolation, they drop from the COVID numbers,” prompting Stevens to say that they can later talk offline about “how we can run that up to marketing.”

Novant Health Response

In response to questions asking for confirmation on if people in the video were employees of New Hanover Regional Medical Center and what the context of the video was, a spokesperson for Novant Health told The Epoch Times that staff involved in the excerpt of the video are seeing the “highest levels of COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths so far in this pandemic, despite having safe and effective vaccines widely available.”

“This was a frank discussion among medical and communications professionals on how we can more accurately convey the severity and seriousness of what’s happening inside of our hospitals and throughout our communities,” the spokesperson said. “Specifically, the data we have been sharing does not include patients who remain hospitalized for COVID-19 complications even though they are no longer on COVID-19 isolation, so it does not provide a complete picture of the total impact of COVID-19 on our patients and on our hospitals.”

The hospital continues to be concerned with misinformation, the spokesperson said, and that it strives “to be transparent and tell the whole story.”

end

This causes an uproar at the UN after New York City demands that diplomats follow the vaccine mandate

(zerohedge)

NYC’s Demand That Diplomats Follow Vaccine Mandate Creates Uproar At UN

 
FRIDAY, SEP 17, 2021 – 02:05 PM

New York City’s (legally questionable) demand that all representatives and diplomats who attend next week’s UN General Assembly meeting show proof of vaccination is threatening to derail the annual summit of world leaders as Russia and China protest the fact that their locally developed vaccines won’t be accepted.

NYC’s request that diplomats and their entourage show proof of vaccination before being admitted somehow received the backing of General Assembly President Maldivian Foreign Minister Abdulla Shahid. In a statement released on Wednesday, NYC Mayor Bill DeBlasio and International Affairs Commissioner Penny Abeywardena thanked UN diplomats ahead of time for “working with us”, calling them “true New Yorkers”.

Unfortunately, not all diplomats are equally enthusiastic. In a letter to colleagues released on Wednesday, Russian UN Ambassador Vasily Nebenzya denounced these new requirements as “clearly discriminatory” and accused NYC and Shahid of violating the UN charter, which states that the UN is international territory.

In the face of Russia’s complaints, Mayor de Blasio doubled down: “If the Russian ambassador is against it, I’m for it.” So much for the spirit of international diplomacy.

Keep in mind, the biggest issue here isn’t that diplomats aren’t vaccinated. It’s that they’re vaccinated with jabs that haven’t been approved in the US.

Sputnik V, a vaccine backed by Moscow and widely administered in Russia, does not have approval in the United States and is not on the World Health Organization’s emergency use listing either.

To try and make everybody happy, NY officials have promised to dole out free doses of the single-dose J&J jab by the UN Headquarters in Midtown. But it’s not approved in all member states, either (though it has been approved by the WHO, even as questions about dangerous side effects linger).

To Mayor de Blasio, this amounts to a sufficient olive branch. “If their vaccine isn’t good enough, then they should go and use one of the other vaccines.”

With so many parties bristling at NYC’s attempt to exert sovereignty over a piece of supranational territory, it looks like NYC’s demands likely won’t be met. A statement from a UN spokesman said the UN has traditionally relied on an “honor system” and that they were working with “the sitting President of the A” to continue the honor system. Another spokesman said the letter from NYC authorities doesn’t specify any single vaccine for use, despite de Blasio’s comments about offering the JNJ jab.

There’s also the question of discrimination: only 2% of the nearly 6 billion jabs produced have reached Africa.

With hundreds of world leaders preparing to fly into New York City next week, there’s a chance for ructions that could disrupt, or maybe even delay, the start of the assembly.

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

Americans panic over soaring inflation

(zerohedge)

Americans Panic Over Soaring Inflation, Buying Conditions Hit The Worst On Record

 
FRIDAY, SEP 17, 2021 – 01:45 PM

One month ago, when looking at the internals of the UMich report, we noted that there was “A Sudden Negative Change In The Economy” as consumer spending intentions collapsed. One month later, it has only gotten worse.

While overall consumer sentiment staged a modest rebound from last month’s dismal plunge

… the internals went from bad to worse, and as survey director Richard Curtin explained, “buying attitudes for household durables fell again in early September to a low reached only once before” – during the galloping inflation of 1980 when Volcker hikes rates to 20% while – “long term economic prospects fell to a decade so low.” It wasn’t just durables: as shown in the chart below, sentiment for buying conditions of vehicles and homes was similarly the worst in over 40 years. As a result, “the decline in assessments of buying conditions for homes, vehicles, and household durables left all three near all-time record lows” with the declines due to spontaneous references to, what else, high prices.

This, according to Curtin, is consistent with an ongoing spending shift from goods to services, although the gains in service spending have been recently slowed sharply by the Delta variant, and according to Goldman, souring expectations for future service spending is why the bank recently slashed its GDP forecasts.

While some anticipated that the August plunge in confidence, one of the worst on record, would quickly disappear since “it was driven by emotions”, the subsequent reality has shown that there is something greater at play here, namely the US consumer being tapped dry with no stimmy cash left and with prices still soaring.

It gets worse: with consumers freaking out over soaring inflation we are about to enter a buyer’s strike because with the Fed repeating over and over that hyperinflation is transitory, consumers would rather hold on to their cash which means the all important spending which drives 70% of the US economy is about to grind to a halt:

There was a complete rout of net favorable views of buying conditions: household durables fell to the lowest level since 1980, vehicles fell to the lowest level since 1974, and homes to the lowest level since 1982. These record drops were all due to complaints about high prices: homes had the highest negative ratings of home prices ever recorded, vehicles had the most negative price references since 1974 (in response to the first oil embargo), and durables had the worst price rating since 1980.

And speaking of galloping inflation, UMich found that “although declining living standards were still more frequently cited by older, poorer, and less educated households, over the past few months, complaints about rising prices have increased among younger, richer, and more educated households. Recent income gains rose slightly, and net household wealth rose, especially among those with incomes in the top third.” In other words, the “transitory” hyperinflation is now crushing everyone, rich and poor, dems and republicans, young and old, cis and transgender, he, she and its.

Curtin then drifted into a philosophical discussion of the three potential reactions to inflation:

Consumers have initially reacted by viewing the rise in inflation as transitory, believing that prices will stabilize or even fall in the future. As a result, postponing purchases is seen as a viable strategy. This implies a slowdown of spending in the months ahead and a more robust rebound later in 2022.

Here, however, the UMich sentiment chief admits that “the main alternative is that inflation will not be transient but will rise further due to an unprecedented expansion in fiscal and monetary policies. The resulting rise in inflationary psychology will lessen resistance to rising prices and stiffen demands for increased wage gains.”

Of course, this would also be the moment the Fed officially loses control of inflation expectations, although as Curtin notes, “this reaction takes a long time to fully develop, and is contingent on significant increases in long-term inflation expectations, which have yet to be observed.” Here we completely disagree with the UMich assessment because as even the NY Fed’s own survey showed this week, 3 year inflation expectations are now the highest on record.

Which means that with every month that “transitory” inflation keeps rising, and the realization that transitory is in fact permanent , we near the “final alternative” for how consumers view inflation, which is the following:

The final alternative is that consumers may believe that the most effective strategy to maintaining their purchasing power is to emphasize increases in their incomes, net of taxes and transfers. The effectiveness of pandemic transfers were shown to be successful in offsetting hardships among those most vulnerable to economic disparities. Transfers to offset the inflationary erosion of living standards would be justified in a similar manner.

In theory this is wonderful; in practice with the US economy sliding into stagflation, what will actually happen is a collapse in real wages which prompts consumers to shift from cautious to euphoric, and buy anything they can to preserve what purchasing power they still have. This is also the first step in the progression to hyperinflation.

end

GM Extends Bolt Plant Shut Down After Recall, Will Also Cut Production At Six Other Plants Due To Semi Shortage

 
FRIDAY, SEP 17, 2021 – 02:46 PM

When it rains, it pours for automakers…

General Motors is planning on extending the shut down of one of its Michigan assembly plants to October 15 as a result of the ongoing Chevy Bolt recall.

In addition, GM said on Thursday it would be cutting production at six other North American plants as a result of the semiconductor shortage.

Recall, yesterday, we wrote about how GM – after two Bolt recalls – had simply resorted to telling owners not to park within 50 feet of other vehicles.

GM spokesman Dan Flores, who we’re sure isn’t getting paid enough to deliver this line with a straight face, said this week: “In an effort to reduce potential damage to structures and nearby vehicles in the rare event of a potential fire, we recommend parking on the top floor or on an open-air deck and park 50 feet or more away from another vehicle. Additionally, we still request you do not leave your vehicle charging unattended, even if you are using a charging station in a parking deck.”

“We are aware of 12 GM confirmed battery fires that have been investigated involving Bolt EVs vehicles in the previous and new recall population,” he continued, telling The Detroit News. “We’re still working with LG around the clock to resolve the issue. Both companies understand the urgency to move as quickly as possible, but, again, the most important thing here is we have to get this right.” 

Recall, back in July, General Motors issued their second recall for the Chevy Bolt after it announced that two Bolts had caught fire without impact and that at least one of the two was related to the battery and happened despite the owner getting a fix from a previous recall.

Additionally, the semiconductor supply chain continues to be a priority not only in the U.S., but also in the E.U., where Friday morning we highlighted comments from the EU’s digital policy chief, Margrethe Vestager.

She officially this week warned that countries should not be relying on just a “handful of very big” chip producers to help alleviate the global chip shortage. Instead, European leaders have called for more investment – something that the EU is actively considering – to help with the bottlenecked supply chain, according to The Irish Times

Vestager told Bloomberg TV that she thought the EU should be aiming for “a much more diversified supply chain”.

“It’s important that we focus on the global market… also European production is meant for a global market, because we get the right competitive pressure,” she said on Wednesday.

She continued: “We cannot just have it that we depend on very few, very big chip producers.”

McConnell rebuffs Yellen over debt limit scenario

(zerohedge)

As McConnell Rebuffs Yellen Over Debt Limit Limbo, Democrat Infighting Risks Delaying $3.5 Trillion Package By ‘Weeks Or Months’

 
THURSDAY, SEP 16, 2021 – 09:48 AM

On Monday we noted how Goldman sounded a red alert over the debt limit debate brewing in Congress – which has a “drop dead date” sometime between late October and early November.

As repo expert Scott Skyrm said, “for the past several years, Congress always reached a compromise before the possibility of a “technical default” creeped into the markets. This year, as we get closer to the “drop dead date” (which hasn’t yet been determined) the markets will start pricing in distortions.

Well, it appears things are headed in that direction with Thursday morning news from Bloomberg that Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) told Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen to pound sand over working with Democrats to raise the federal debt ceiling.

“The leader repeated to Secretary Yellen what he has said publicly since July: This is a unified Democrat government, engaging in a partisan reckless tax and spending spree,” said McConnell spokesman Doug Andres on Thursday. “They will have to raise the debt ceiling on their own and they have the tools to do it.”

Adding further pressure to the situation is Democratic infighting over their $3.5 trillion economic blueprint, which Bloomberg noted on Wednesday risks delaying things “by weeks or months” as moderate and progressive Democrats argue over taxes, health care and other unresolved issues. Chief among them, the size of the package – with Democratic Sens. Joe Manchin (WV) and Kyrsten Sinema (AZ) balking at the cost. Last week Manchin called for a ‘strategic pause‘ in negotiations amid soaring debt and rising inflation. Progressive Democrats, however – whose votes are necessary for passage, say the $3.5 trillion is the minimum amount necessary to achieve their priorities.

“It’s going to take some time,” said Sen. Ben Cardin (D-MD), adding that “as you put out one area, another one crops up.

The expansive $3.5 trillion package entails much of Biden’s first-year agenda and includes a mix of tax increases on the wealthy and corporations, as well as greater spending in areas including child care, health care and climate change. 

With Republicans unified in opposition, Democrats are pushing it through the Senate using a process called reconciliation that lets them skirt a GOP filibuster. But with the slimmest of majorities in both chambers, Democrats will have to be unified in support.

The differences among Democrats manifested themselves as the House panels finished their work. The Ways and Means Committee deferred action on raising the limit on the state and local tax deductions, or SALT, and a sweeping proposal to regulate drug prices failed to win approval in the Energy and Commerce Committee. It will be up to party leaders to decide whether those provisions can be inserted later in the process and still muster the votes needed to pass the final bill. -Bloomberg

Biden met with Sinema and Manchin at the White House on Wednesday, however all parties were mum about the talks aside from Sinema’s office calling them “productive” and White House spox Jen Psaki saying there would be “ongoing discussions.” 

Meanwhile, the delays are putting House Speaker Nancy Pelosi in a bind – as she promised moderates a vote on a $550 billion infrastructure plan by Sept. 27. Progressive Democrats including Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY), however, have warned that they won’t support that bill unless the $3.5 trillion package is agreed to by both chambers first.

More disagreements exist over the level of taxation on the wealthy – with Sen. Finance Chairman Ron Wyden pushing for an inheritance tax, energy tax credits tied to carbon emissions, and levies on stock buybacks and partnerships. In addition, House Democrats have yet to agree amongst themselves on SALT – the ability for wealthy people to write off state and local taxes on their federal returns, which was capped during the Trump years at $10,000. House Democrats from New York, New Jersey and California are pushing to remove the cap – a handout to their wealthy constituents, while progressives are set to oppose it.

Ongoing issues also include drug price regulation – which was thrown in jeopardy on Tuesday after three Democrats on the House Energy and Commerce Committee voted against a proposal which would allow the US Govt. to demand lower drug prices while tying future price increases to inflation. According to the report, “The savings to the government derived from the plan are slated to help pay for a large portion of the economic package. Without them, the measure would be as much as $600 billion short.”

In short, be on the look out for ‘distortions’ as we approach the drop-dead date for the debt ceiling, and the economic package potentially drags on for ‘weeks or months.’

END

We now have 61 container ships stuck waiting off the coast of California

(Greg Miller/Freightwaves)

Record Shattered: 61 Container Ships Stuck Waiting Off California

 
THURSDAY, SEP 16, 2021 – 11:40 AM

By Greg Miller of FreightWaves,

The number of container ships at anchor or drifting in San Pedro Bay off the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach has now blown through all previous records and is rising by the day.

There were an all-time-high 61 container ships in the queue in San Pedro Bay on Wednesday, according to the Marine Exchange of Southern California. Of those, a record 21 were forced to drift because anchorages were full.

Theoretically, the numbers — already surreally high — could go a lot higher than this. While designated anchorages are limited, the space for ships to safely drift offshore is not.

“There’s lots of ocean for drifting — there’s no limit,” Capt. Kip Loutit, executive director of the Marine Exchange of Southern California, told American Shipper.

“Our usual VTS [Vessel Traffic Service] area is a 25-mile radius from Point Fermin by the entrance to Los Angeles, which gives a 50-mile diameter to drift ships. We could easily expand to a 40-mile radius, because we track them within that radius for air-quality reasons. That would give us an 80-mile diameter to drift ships,” said Loutit.

Limits on land

The Southern California gateway is acting like the narrow tube on a funnel: Ocean volumes pour in from Asia and can only flow out at a certain velocity due to terminal limitations as well as limitations of warehouses, trucking and rail beyond the terminal. When the flow into the top of the funnel is too great, as it is now, it creates an overflow in the form of ships at anchor or adrift. This offshore ship queue is equivalent to a massive floating warehouse for containerized imports whose size is only limited by liner shipping capacity and U.S. consumer demand.

How constrained is the flow? Port of Los Angeles Executive Director Gene Seroka said during a press conference on Wednesday that container dwell time in the terminal “has reached its peak since the surge began” and is now six days, worsening from 5.3 days last month. On-dock rail dwell time is 11.7 days, not far below the peak of 13.4. Street dwell time (outside the terminal) “is 8.5 days, nearing the all-time high” of 8.8 days, said Seroka. It has worsened from 8.3 days a month ago.

Marine Exchange data reveals the constraints of the Los Angeles/Long Beach port complex. Since congestion began, the total number of ships either at anchor or at berth has risen and fallen — it was an all-time-high 92 on Wednesday, more than five times pre-COVID levels. But one stat has remained remarkably consistent: The number of ships at Los Angeles/Long Beach berths has remained in a tight band of around 27-31 per day — that is what the land side can handle, the tube of the metaphorical funnel. Throughout 2021, all ship arrivals over that threshold have overflowed into the anchorages and drift areas.

Chart: American Shipper based on data from Marine Exchange of Southern California. Data bi-monthly Jan 2019-Nov 2020