SEPTEMBER 24/GOLD UP $1.15 TO $1751.10//SILVER DOWN 26 CENTS TO $22.41//COVID UPDATS//VACCINE UPDATES//LOOKS LIKE THE NATIOALIZATION OF EVERGRANDE TO COMMENCE//CHINA’S HOUSING SECTOR WHICH IS 62% OF THE ECONOMY IS NOW FROZEN//PAUL SPERRY: A GREAT WEEKEND READ//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

 

GOLD:$1751.10 UP $1.15   The quote is London spot price

Silver:$22.41 DOWN 26  CENTS  London spot price ( cash market)

 
 
4:30 closing price
 
Gold $1750.90
 
silver:  22.43
 
 
 
end
 

PLATINUM AND PALLADIUM PRICES BY GOLD-EAGLE (MORE ACCURATE)

 

 

PLATINUM  $985.05 DOWN  $9.75

PALLADIUM: $1969.70 DOWN $24.60/OZ 

 

END

Editorial of The New York Sun | February 1, 2021

end

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COMEX DETAILS//NOTICES FILED

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

receiving today  0

MONTH TO DATE: 2,919

issued:  60

Goldman Sachs stopped: 0

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  SEPT. CONTRACT: 0 NOTICE(S) FOR 00 OZ  (0.000 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR THIS MONTH:  2919 FOR 291900 OZ  (9.0793 TONNES) 

 

SILVER//sept CONTRACT

5 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR  25,000   OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month 5392  :  for 26,910,000  oz

 

BITCOIN MORNING QUOTE  $41,001 DOWN 1604  DOLLARS 

 

BITCOIN AFTERNOON QUOTE.:$42,344 DOLLARS  DOWN $270. 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

GLD AND SLV INVENTORIES:

GLD AND SLV INVENTORIES:

Gold

WITH GOLD  UP $1.15 AND NO PHYSICAL TO BE FOUND ANYWHERE:

A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:  A WITHDRAWAL OF 8.14 TONNES FROM THE GLD 

 

WITH RESPECT TO GLD WITHDRAWALS:  (OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS)

 

GOLD IS “RETURNED” TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHEN CALLING IN THEIR LEASES: THE GOLD NEVER LEAVES THE BANK OF ENGLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BANK IS PROTECTING ITSELF IN CASE OF COMMERCIAL FAILURE

ALSO INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (phys) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//

THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD!!

GLD  992.65 TONNES OF GOLD//

Silver

AND WITH NO SILVER AROUND  TODAY: WITH SILVER DOWN 26 CENTS

NO  CHANGES  IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: 

 

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV

WITH REGARD TO SILVER WITHDRAWALS FROM THE SLV:

THE SILVER WITHRAWALS ARE ACTUALLY “RETURNED” TO JPM, AS JPMORGAN CALLS IN ITS LEASES WITH THE SLV FUND.  (THE STORY IS THE SAME AS THE BANK OF ENGLAND’S GOLD). THE SILVER NEVER LEAVES JPMORGAN’S VAULT. THEY ARE CALLING IN THEIR LEASES FOR FEAR OF SOLVENCY ISSUES.

INVENTORY RESTS AT: 

 

546.708  MILLION OZ./SLV

xxxxx

GLD closing price//NYSE 163,30 down 0.21 OR 0.13%

XXXXXXXXXXXXX

SLV closing price NYSE 20.71 DOWN $.20 OR 0.96%

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

 
 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 
 
 

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 406 CONTRACTS TO 143,641, AND FURTHER FROM THE NEW RECORD OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020. THE LOSS IN OI OCCURRED WITH OUR  STRONG  $0.24 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX  ON THURSDAY.

OUR BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN ,(IT FELL BY $0.24)

BUT THEY WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OUT ANY SILVER LONGS AS WE HAD A STRONG GAIN OF 799 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE  ALSO HAD I) HUGE  BANKER SHORT COVERING AS THEY ARE VERY ANXIOUS TO GET OUT OF DODGE!!/WE ALSO HAD  SOME ii) REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//.    iii)  A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) A  SMALL INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 27.64 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY A 40,000 OZ  E.F.P. JUMP TO LONDON  //NEW STANDING 28.315 MILLION OZ  / v), SMALL SIZED COMEX OI LOSS
 
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL:
 
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI SILVER TODAY: CONTRACTS – 43
 

 

 
 
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS
 
 
SEPTEMBER
 
ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF SEPT:
 
14,203 CONTACTS  for 17 days, total 14,203 contracts or 71.015 million oz…average per day:  835 contracts or 4.1773 million oz per day.

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER: SO FAR THIS MONTH OF

SEPT:  71.015 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON

 

LAST 4 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: 140.120 MILLION OZ 

 

 
RESULT: , ..WE HAD A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 406 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR STRONG 24 CENT LOSS SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ///THURSDAY THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 1205 CONTRACTS( 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR SEPT AND CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR DECEMBER) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS
 
TODAY WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 799 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGE/THE DOMINANT FEATURE TODAY:/HUGE BANKER SHORTCOVERING AS THEY GET OUT OF DODGE/  ( DESPITE OUR STRONG $0.24 LOSSAND WE HAVE A SMALL INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR SEPTEMBER 27.640 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED TODAY BY AN EFP JUMP TO LONDON  OF 40,000 OZ TODAY//NEW STANDING 28.315 MILLION OZ//
 

WE HAD 5 NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR 25,000 OZ

GOLD

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A FAIR SIZED 3420  CONTRACTS TO 498,329 _ ,,AND CLOSER TO  OUR NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110. 

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: -292  CONTRACTS.

THE FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI CAME DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $28.20///COMEX GOLD TRADING/THURSDAY.AS IN SILVER WE MUST HAVE HAD HUGE BANKER/ALGO SHORT COVERING ACCOMPANYING OUR FAIR SIZED EXCHANGE FOR  PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. WE  HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION  AS THE TOTAL GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES TOTALLED 7240 CONTRACTS…. WE ALSO HAD A GOOD INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR SEPT AT 3.586 TONNES, FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 200 OZ E.F.P JUMP TO LONDON //NEW STANDING 9.405 TONNES// 
 
 
 

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $28.20 WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY’S TRADING

 

WE HAD A VOLUME OF 0    4 -GC CONTRACTS//OPEN INTEREST  0//

WE HAD A GOOD SIZED GAIN OF 7240  OI CONTRACTS (22.52 TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

 

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 3820 CONTRACTS:

CONTRACT  AND JULY:  0; AUGUST: 0 & DEC 3820  ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO//TOTAL: 3820 The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 498,037. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EXCHANGE DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 7240 CONTRACTS: 3420 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 3820 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 7240 CONTRACTS OR 22.52 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (3820) ACCOMPANYING THE FAIR SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (3420 OI): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES: 7240 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING ,2.) GOOD INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR SEPT. AT 3.586 TONNES//FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 200 OZ E.F.P. JUMP TO LONDON//NEW STANDING 9.405 TONNES / 3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION,4)FAIR SIZED COMEX OI GAIN 5). FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL

 

SPREADING OPERATIONS(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD)

 

FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS:

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF OCT. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD

 

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:
HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT, FOR GOLD:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

 
 
 
 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2021 INCLUDING TODAY

SEPTEMBER

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF SEPT : 38,750, CONTRACTS OR 3,875,000 oz OR 120.52 TONNES (17 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2279 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 17 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 120.52 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2020, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  120.52/3550 x 100% TONNES  3.39% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO DATE
 
JANUARY: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)
 
FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..
 
MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN///IT SURPASSED JANUARY!!)

 

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          120.52 TONNES INITIAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 406 CONTRACTS TO 143,641 AND FURTHER FROM  TO OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  4 1/2 YEARS AGO.  

EFP ISSUANCE 1205 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

JULY 0  AND SEPT: 0; DEC 1205  ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  1205 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI LOSS OF 406 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 1205 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,WE OBTAIN A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 799 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

 

THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 3.999 MILLION  OZ, OCCURRED WITH OUR $0.24 LOSS IN PRICE. 

 

 

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL..THE EVIDENCE IS CLEAR: HUGE AMOUNTS OF PHYSICAL STANDING FOR BOTH  SILVER AND GOLD .

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Gold

(Peter Schiff, Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,

 
 
 

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)FRIDAY MORNING/THURSDAY  NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 29.15 PTS OR .60%   //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 318.82 PTS OR 1.30%/The Nikkei closed UP 609.41 PTS OR 2.06%    //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.42%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN TO 6.4580  /Oil UP TO 73.08 dollars per barrel for WTI and UP TO 77.25 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED   /ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED  DOWN AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.4580. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.4582/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%/

 

 
3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

NORTH KOREA//USA/OUTLINE

END

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3 C CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

OUTLINE
 

COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A FAIR SIZED 3420 CONTRACTS TO 498,037 MOVING CLOSER TO  THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020).  AND THIS COMEX INCREASE OCCURRED DESPITE OUR HUGE LOSS OF $28.20 IN GOLD PRICING THURSDAY’S COMEX TRADING.WE ALSO HAD A FAIR EFP ISSUANCE (3820 CONTRACTS). …AS THEY WERE PAID HANDSOMELY  NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AND SETTLE FOR CASH. LOOKS LIKE OUR BANKERS ARE FINALLY BAILING OUT!!

 

WE NORMALLY HAVE WITNESSED  EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS. IT SEEMS THAT ARE BANKERS FRIENDS ARE EXERCISING EFP’S FROM LONDON AND NOW THEY ARE LOATHE TO ISSUE NEW ONES.  

 

(SEE BELOW)

WE  HAD 0    4 -GC VOLUME//open interest REMAINS AT   0

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW MOVING TO THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 3820 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  ;: ,  JULY 0 & AUGUST:  & DEC.  3820 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1852  CONTRACTS 

 

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION,  EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A STRONG SIZED 7240  TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 3820 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A FAIR SIZED COMEX OI OF 3420 CONTRACTS.WE HAVE A GOOD AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR SEPT   (9.405),

 HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 8 MONTHS OF 20201:

SEPT: 9.405 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB. 113.424 TONNES

JAN: 6.500 TONNES.

 

TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR (JAN- AUGUST): 411.289 TONNNES

 

THE BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT FELL $28.20).,BUT THEY WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING ANY LONGS AS THE TOTAL GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES REGISTERED 22.52 TONNES, ACCOMPANYING OUR GOOD GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR SEPT. (9.405 TONNES)..I  STRONGLY BELIEVE THAT OUR BANKER FRIENDS ARE GETTING QUITE NERVOUS.  THE SMALL SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI IS DUE TO BANKER SHORT COVERING IN A BIG WAY.  THEY ARE LOOKING OVER THEIR SHOULDERS AND WITNESSING MASSIVE SILVER/GOLD SHORTAGES THAT CANNOT BE COVERED. THEY ARE TRYING TO FLEE IN HASTE “FROM DODGE”.

WE HAD -292   CONTRACTS FROM COMEX TRADES. THESE WERE REMOVED AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT. 

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES :: 7240 CONTRACTS OR 724,000 OZ OR 22.52 TONNES

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT COMMODITY FUTURES OPEN INTEREST SHOULD APPROXIMATE 3% OF TOTAL PRODUCTION.  IN GOLD THE WORLD PRODUCES AROUND 3500 TONNES PER YEAR BUT ONLY 2200 TONNES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE WEST (THUS EXCLUDING RUSSIA, CHINA ETC..WHO KEEP 100% OF THEIR PRODUCT.
 
THUS IN GOLD WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:  498,037 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS X 100 OZ PER CONTRACT = 49.80 MILLION OZ/32,150 OZ PER TONNE =  15.48 TONNES

THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST REPRESENTS 1548/2200 OR 70.41% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF GOLD.

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX GOLD TODAY  152,118 contracts//    / volume//volume pooy/

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY: 241,928 contracts//fair/raid/

 

// //most of our traders have left for London

 

SEPT 24

/2021

 
INITIAL STANDINGS FOR SEPT COMEX GOLD
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
 
30,575.000 OZ
Brinks
(951 kilobars)
 
rs
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz
nil
OZ
 
 
 
 
 
 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz
 
 
nil
 
oz
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
No of oz served (contracts) today
0  notice(s)
000 OZ
 
0 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)
105 contracts
10500 oz
 
0.3265 TONNES
 
 
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
2919 notices
291,900 OZ
9.0793 TONNES
 
 
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz
 
 
 
We had 0 deposit into the dealer
 
 
 
 
total deposit: nil   oz 
 

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had  0 deposit into the customer account
 
 
TOTAL CUSTOMER DEPOSITS nil oz
 
 
 
We had 1  customer withdrawals
i) Out of Brinks:  30,575.000 oz (951 kilobars)
 
 
total customer withdrawals 30,575.000    oz
     
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

We had 1  kilobar transactions 1 out of  3 transactions)

ADJUSTMENTS 2//  dealer to customer

Dealer to customer: International Deleaware: 5401.248 oz

and now 2nd adjustment  customer to dealer:

JPMorgan;  150,013.918 oz

 

 
 
 
 
the front month of September has an open interest of 105 for a LOSS of 62 contracts. We had 60 notices served on THURSDAY.  Thus we LOST 2 contracts or an additional 200 oz will NOT stand for delivery in this non active delivery month of September for gold as they ACCEPTED a fiat bonus as well as an EFP to London 
 
 
 
 
 
OCTOBER LOST 631 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 30,090
NOVEMBER GAINED 181 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 552
.
DEC GAINED 3894  TO STAND AT 404,831
 

We had 0 notice(s) filed today for   0  oz

FOR THE SEPT 2021 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 0  contract(s) of which 0  notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0  notices received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the SEPT /2021. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (2919) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  (SEPT: 105 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today  0 x 100 oz per contract equals 302,400 OZ OR 9.405 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this active month of SEPTEMBER.  

 

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the SEPT contract month:

No of notices filed so far (2919) x 100 oz+(105)  OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (0} x 100 oz} which equals 302,400 oz standing OR 9.412 TONNES in this  active delivery month of SEPTEMBER.

We LOST 2 contracts or an additional 200 oz will not stand for delivery over on this side of the pond.

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING:  9.405 TONNES

 
 

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

427,737.391, oz NOW PLEDGED  march 5/2021/HSBC  13.30 TONNES

284,899.652 PLEDGED  MANFRA 8.8615 TONNES

298,568.054, oz  JPM  9.28 TONNES

1,177,555.732 oz pledged June 12/2020 Brinks/36.50 TONNES

160,865.707, oz Pledged August 21/regular account 4.164 tonnes JPMORGAN

41,127.478 oz International Delaware:  1.27 tonnes

18,615.429 Loomis:  0.5790 tonnes

total pledged gold:  2,405,269.444oz                                     74.81 tonnes

 

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES…. WE HAVE 496.611 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS 9.405 tonnes

CALCULATION OF REGISTERED THAT CAN BE SETTLED UPON:

 

total registered or dealer  18,371,321,587 oz or 571.42 tonnes
 
 
 
total weight of pledged: 2,405,269.444   oz                                     74.81 tonnes
 
 
 
registered gold that can be used to settle upon: 15,966,052.0 (496.611 tonnes) 
 
 
 
 
true registered gold  (total registered – pledged tonnes15,966.052.0 (496.611 tonnes)   
 
 
total eligible gold: 15,729,242.795 oz   (489.24 tonnes)
 
 
 
total registered, pledged  and eligible (customer) gold  34,100,564.184 oz or 1,060.67 tonnes
 (INCLUDES 4 GC GOLD)
 
 

total 4 GC gold:   126.34 tonnes

total gold net of 4 GC:  934.33 tonnes

end

 
 

I have compiled  data with respect to registered (or dealer) gold taken on first day notice for each of the past 24 months

The data begins on first day notice for the May month taken on the last day of July 2018. and it continues to present day.

I then took, how many deliveries were recorded by the CME for each and every month.  I also included for reference the price of gold on first day notice.

The first graph is a logarithmic  graph and the second graph, linear.

You can see the huge explosion of registered gold at the comex along with deliveries.

 
 
THE DATA AND GRAPHS:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
END

SEPT 24/2021

And now for the wild silver comex results

INITIAL STANDING FOR SILVER//SEPTEMBER

Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 
59,419.584  oz
 
 
CNT
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil OZ
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
1,213,765.801
 OZ
CNT
Delaware
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
No of oz served today (contracts)
5
 
CONTRACT(S)
 
25,000  OZ)
 
No of oz to be served (notices)
281 contracts
 1,405,000oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  5392 contracts

 

26,910,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
 
We had 0 deposit into the dealer
 

total dealer deposits:  nil        oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had  2 deposits into customer account (ELIGIBLE ACCOUNT)

i) into Delaware:  4992.111 oz

ii) Into CNT:  1,208,773.690 oz

 
 
 

JPMorgan now has 183.706 million oz  silver inventory or 51.13% of all official comex silver. (183.706 million/360.458 million

total customer deposits today 1,213,765.801   oz

we had 1 withdrawals

 

ii) Out of CNT: 59,419.589 oz

 

 

 

total withdrawal  59,419.584        oz

 

adjustments:  zero
 
 
 

Total dealer(registered) silver: 101.923 million oz

total registered and eligible silver:  360.458 million oz

a net   1.150 million oz  enters  the comex silver vaults.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 
 
For Sept. we have an open interest of 286 for a LOSS of 8 contracts.  We had 0 notices serve on Thursday, so we LOST 8 contracts or 40,000 additional oz will not stand for delivery at the comex in this very active delivery month of September.
 
 
 

OCTOBER GAINED 21 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 1637

NOVEMBER GAINED 15 TO STAND AT 641  

DEC LOST 677 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 124,974

 
NO. OF NOTICES FILED: 5  FOR 25,000 OZ.

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in SEPTEMBER. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at  5392 x 5,000 oz = 26,910,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of SEPT (286) and the number of notices served upon today 5 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the SEPT standings for silver for the SEPT./2021 contract month: 5392 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of SEPT(286)  – number of notices served upon today (5) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the SEPTEMBER contract month .equals 28,315,000 oz. ..

We LOST 8 contracts or AN ADDITIONAL 40,000 oz will NOT stand on this side of the pond 

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME  40,491 CONTRACTS // volume poor///

 

FOR YESTERDAY 45,591 contracts  ,CONFIRMED VOLUME/ poor

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV  RISES TO -1.64% (SEPT24/2021)

SILVER FUND POSITIVE TO NAV

no of oz of physical silver held  JULY 8.2021;  150,926,000  (GAIN OF 6.411 MILION OZ IN A MONTH)

No of oz of physical silver held; MAY 24/2021  144,515,694 OZ

No. of oz of physical silver held:  Sept 20/20: 85,907.3616  Oz

No of oz pf physical silver held: Dec 21/2019:  65,073.570 Oz

During the past 8 months Sprott has added: 58,608.30 Oz

So far this year: 53.8 million oz

2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -0.85% nav   (SEPT24)/2021 )

 

3. SPROTT CEF .A   FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA)

NAV $18.45 TRADING 17.89//NEGATIVE  3.04

 

END

 

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/(this vehicle is a fraud as there is no gold behind them!

SEPT 24/WITH GOLD $1.15 DOLLARS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 8.14 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 992.65 TONNES

SEPT 23/WITH GOLD DOWN $28.20 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1000.79 TONNES

SEPT 22/WITH GOLD UP $.55 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1000.79 TONNES

SEPT 21/WITH GOLD UP $14.20 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1000.79 TONNES

SEPT 20/WITH GOLD UP $10.00 TODAY;A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.74 TONNES FOF GOLD INTO THE GLD/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1000.79 TONNES/

SEPT 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.60 TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .29 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 999.21 TONNES/

SEPT 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.90 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1000.21 TONNES

SEPT 14/WITH GOLD UP $12,90 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.04 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1000.21 TONNES

SEPTEMBER 13//WITH GOLD UP $1.70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 998.17 TONNES

SEPTEMBER 10//WITH GOLD DOWN $7.40//A SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD”: A WITHDRAWAL OF .35 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 998.17

SEPT 9/WITH GOLD UP $7.10 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 998.52 TONNES/

SEPT 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.90 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 998.52 TONNES

SEPT 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $35.35 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY REST AT 998.52 TONNES.

SEPT 3/WITH GOLD UP $22.00 TODAY: A HUGE  CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .74 TONNES FROM THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 999.52 TONNES

SEPT 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.45 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1000.26 TONNES

SEPT 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00 TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.46 TONNES FORM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1000.26 TONNES.

AUGUST 31/WITH GOLD UP $5.60 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1001.72 TONNES./

AUGUST 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.15 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1001.72 TONNES/

AUGUST 27/WITH GOLD UP $23.79 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1001.72 TONNES

AUGUST 26/WITH GOLD UP $6.10 TODAY, A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.91 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1001.72 TONNES.

AUGUST 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $17.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1004.63 TONNES

AUGUST 24/ WITH GOLD UP $2.60 TODAY: A MONSTER CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 4.95 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1006.66 TONNES.

AUGUST 23/WITH GOLD UP $21.25 TODAY:  NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1011.61 TONNES// 

AUGUST 20/WITH GOLD UP $1.05 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 3.49 TONNES FROM THE GLD //INVENTORY RESTS AT 1011.61 TONNES

AUGUST 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.30 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1015.10 TONNES/

AUGUST 18/WITH GOLD  DOWN $2.85 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.53 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1015.10 TONNES/

AUGUST 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.50 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1020.63 TONNES

 
 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Inventory rests tonight at:

 

SEPT 24 / GLD INVENTORY 992,65 tonnes

 

LAST;  1318 TRADING DAYS:   +68.71 TONNES HAVE BEEN ADDED THE GLD

 

LAST 988 TRADING DAYS// +  244.13. TONNES HAVE NOW  BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them!)

SEPT 24/WITH SILVER DOWN 26 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 546.708 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 509,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 546.708 MILLION OZ///

SEPT 22/WITH SILVER UP 30 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/

INVENTORY RESTS AT 547.217 MILLION OZ/./

SEPT 21/WITH SILVER UP 39 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.624 MILLION OZ.

SEPT 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.624 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 45 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.624 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.624 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 14/WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.11 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.624 MILLION OZ

SEPT 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 12 CENTS; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.131MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 545.735 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 10 WITH SILVER DOWN 26 CENTS; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 547.866 MILLION OZ..

SEPT 9/ WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 547.866 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 8/WITH SILVE DOWN 30 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.037 MILLION OF FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 547.866 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 32 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 549.903 MILLION OZ.

SEPT 3/WITH SILVER UP 83 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 549.903 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 29 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 977,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 549.903 MILLION OZ

SEPT 1/WITH SILVER UP 20 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 550.880 MILLION OZ.

AUGUST 31/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 5.002 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 550.880 MILLION OZ

 

AUGUST 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY REST S AT 545.878 MILLION OZ////

AUGUST 27/WITH SILVER UP 47 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 545.878 MILLION OZ/./

AUGUST 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 22 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 545.878 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 545.878 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST24/WITH SILVER UP 37 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLSV: ANOTHER PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 3.427 MILLION OZ AND THIS IS HEADING FOR SPROTT//INVENTORY RESTS AT 545.878 MILLION OZ..

AUGUST 23/WITH SILVER UP 50 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV;A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.641 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 549.305 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 551.946 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.389 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 551.946 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 18/ WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.131 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV.INVENTORY REST AT 553.375 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 555.466 MILLION OZ.

 
 

SLV INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT

SEPT 23/2021      546.708 MILLION OZ

 
 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

PETER SCHIFF

Peter Schiff: Gold Will Explode; The Dollar Will Implode When The Markets Figure This Out

 
FRIDAY, SEP 24, 2021 – 08:27 AM

Via SchiffGold.com,

Peter Schiff says gold will explode and the dollar will implode when the markets figure out the Fed is crying wolf when it comes to monetary tightening.

The Federal Reserve wrapped up another meeting without making any changes to its current extraordinary, loose, inflationary monetary policy. But the central bank did hint that it may start tapering its quantitative easing program “soon.”

That was enough for the markets. They continue to expect the Fed will tighten monetary policy and fight surging inflation. Gold sold off after the FOMC statement came out, dropping about $10.

The gold market has battled these headwinds for months. Every time the Fed hints at tightening, gold sells off. Every time inflation numbers come in hot, gold sells off. This doesn’t make sense. Why would investors sell an inflation hedge during an inflationary period? Because they honestly think the central bank can and will sweep in and successfully fight inflation.

But as we have said over and over again, the Fed cannot possibly tighten in this economic environment. In an interview on RT Boom Bust, Peter Schiff said even if the Fed does begin to taper, it will eventually reverse course and ultimately expand QE.

It knows the only foundation this bubble economy has is the Fed’s easy money policies. And I don’t think they have any actual plans to taper. And even if they just kind of feign the process by beginning it, they’ll never complete it because soon after they start the taper, again, if they even ever start, they’re going to have to reverse the process. Because ultimately, the Fed Fed is going to expand the QE program and start to buy a lot more government Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities in the future than it’s doing right now.”

During his podcast after the September Fed meeting, Peter said at some point the markets will tire of this game.

They’re going to be tired of a boy crying wolf over and over and over again, and a wolf never actually showing up. At some point, the markets are going to figure this out, understand the Fed’s predicament, and then it’s going to hit the fan.”

Peter said that’s when you will see the gold market explode and the dollar implode.

But you can’t wait for that to happen to act. You need to be positioned before everyone wakes up — or not even everyone — just a significant percentage of those who are asleep right now to wake up. That’s all it takes. Not everybody. Just a large enough minority to figure it out and that’s all it’s going to take.”

As for the dollar, during the big stock market selloff on Monday, the greenback was up overall, but it was down against the traditional safe-haven currencies, including the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc. It was also down against gold. Nevertheless, a lot of mainstream commentators claimed the dollar was strong, proving that it remains the go-to safe haven. But that’s not true.

The dollar was down against the Swiss franc and the yen. Doesn’t that mean that more people were buying Swiss franks and yen instead of the dollar? And also, gold went up against the dollar. So, that means people were buying gold and not the dollar. So, I think the action in the foreign exchange market and in the gold market doesn’t actually prove that the dollar is retaining its safe-haven status. It’s more evidence that it is losing that status as more people are preferring Japanese yen, Swiss francs and gold to the dollar.”

EGON VON GREYERZ//MATHEW PIEPENBERG/JIM RICKARDS/PAM AND RUSS MARTENS

 

OR LAWRIE WILLIAMS

LAWRIE WILLIAMS: Gold and silver

 

-END-

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

Your weekend reading material…

Alasdair Macleod….

Alasdair Macleod: The great game moves on

 

 

 Section: Daily Dispatches

 

By Alasdair Macleod
GoldMoney, Toronto
Thursday, September 23, 2021

Following America’s withdrawal from Afghanistan, her focus has switched to the Pacific with the establishment of a joint Australian and UK naval partnership.

The founder of modern geopolitical theory, Halford Mackinder, had something to say about this in his last paper, written for the Council on Foreign Relations in 1943. Mackinder anticipated this development, though the actors and their roles at that time were different. In particular, he foresaw the economic emergence of China and India and the importance of the Pacific region.

This article discusses the current situation in Mackinder’s context, taking in the consequences of green energy, the importance of trade in the Pacific region, and China’s current deflationary strategy relative to that of declining Western powers aggressively pursuing asset inflation.

There is little doubt that the world is rebalancing as Mackinder described nearly 80 years ago. To appreciate it we must look beyond the West’s current economic and monetary difficulties and the loss of its hegemony over Asia, and particularly note the improving conditions of Asia’s most populous nations. …

… For the remainder of the analysis:

https://www.goldmoney.com/research/goldmoney-insights/the-great-game-moves-on?gmrefcode=gata

END

JPMorgan settles to pay only 15.7 million to settle spoofing lawsuit

such criminals..

(courtesy Reuters/GATA)

JPMorgan agrees to pay $15.7 million to settle spoofing lawsuit

 

 

 Section: Daily Dispatches

 

By Chris Prentice and Jonathan Stempel
Reuters
Thursday, September 23, 2021

WASHINGTON — JPMorgan Chase & Co. agreed to pay $15.7 million in cash to settle a class-action lawsuit by investors who accused the largest U.S. bank of intentionally manipulating prices of U.S. Treasury futures and options.

The settlement disclosed late Wednesday night stemmed from sprawling U.S. government investigations into illegal trading in futures and precious metals markets, known as spoofing.

JPMorgan did not admit wrongdoing in agreeing to the settlement, which covers traders in Treasury futures and options from April 2008 to January 2016 and requires approval by a federal judge in Manhattan.

Last September JPMorgan entered a deferred prosecution agreement and agreed to pay $920 million, including a $436 million criminal fine, to settle U.S. government probes into spoofing in Treasuries and precious metals. The bank also agreed to self-report future violations. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/jpmorgan-agrees-pay-157-mln-settle-spoofing-lawsuit-2021-09-23/

END

III) OTHER PHYSICAL STORIES/COMMODITIES/PHYSICAL SHORTAGES //CRYPTOCURRENCIES

 

URANIUM

 

end

 
CRYPTOCURRENCIES/
 
end
 

Your early FRIDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results, important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs usa dollar/CLOSED UP AT 6.4680 

 

//OFFSHORE YUAN 6.4682  /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 29.15 PTS OR .60% 

 

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 318.82 PTS OR 1.30% 

 

2. Nikkei closed UP 609.41 PTS OR 2.06%  

 

3. Europe stocks  ALL RED

 

USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO  93.32/Euro RISES TO 1.1719

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.055/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 110.52/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

3c Nikkei now JUST ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 73.08 and Brent: 77.25

3f Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE CLOSED DOWN//  OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO -.224%/Italian 10 Yr bond yield RISES to 0.79% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 0.42%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 0.99: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO : 0.825

3k Gold at $1745.60 silver at: 22.43   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 15/100 in roubles/dollar) 72.96

3m oil into the 73 dollar handle for WTI and  77 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 110.52 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9243 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 1.0831 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to 0.224%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 1.423% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 1.933%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 8.85..  VERY DEADLY

Futures Slide Alongside Cryptocurrencies Amid China Crackdown

 
FRIDAY, SEP 24, 2021 – 08:12 AM

US futures and European stocks fell amid ongoing nerves over the Evergrande default, while cryptocurrency-linked stocks tumbled after the Chinese central bank said such transactions are illegal. Sovereign bond yields fluctuated after an earlier selloff fueled by the prospect of tighter monetary policy. At 745am ET, S&P 500 e-minis were down 19.5 points, or 0.43%, Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 88.75 points, or 0.58% and Dow e-minis were down 112 points, or 0.33%.

In the biggest overnight news, Evergrande offshore creditors remain in limbo and still haven’t received their coupon payment effectively starting the 30-day grace period, while also in China, the State Planner issued a notice on the crackdown of cryptocurrency mining, will strictly prohibit financing for new crypto mining projects and strengthen energy consumption controls of new crypto mining projects. Subsequently, the PBoC issued a notice to further prevent and dispose of the risks from speculating on cryptocurrencies, to strengthen monitoring of risks from crypto trading and such activities are illegal.

The news sent the crypto space tumbling as much as 8% while cryptocurrency-exposed stocks slumped in U.S. premarket trading. Marathon Digital (MARA) drops 6.5%, Bit Digital (BTBT) declines 4.7%, Riot Blockchain (RIOT) -5.9%, Coinbase -2.8%.

Big banks including JPMorgan, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley and Bank of America Corp slipped about 0.5%, while oil majors Exxon Mobil and Chevron Corp were down 0.4% and 0.3%, respectively, in premarket trading.Mega-cap FAAMG tech giants fell between 0.5% and 0.6%. Nike shed 4.6% after the sportswear maker cut its fiscal 2022 sales expectations and warned of delays during the holiday shopping season. Several analysts lowered their price targets on the maker of sports apparel and sneakers after the company cut its FY revenue growth guidance to mid-single- digits. Here are some of the biggest U.S. movers today:

  • Helbiz (HLBZ) falls 10% after the micromobility company filed with the SEC for the sale of as many as 11m shares by stockholders.
  • Focus Universal (FCUV), an online marketing company that’s been a favorite of retail traders, surged 26% in premarket trading after the stock was cited on Stocktwits in recent days.
  • Vail Resorts (MTN) falls 2.7% in postmarket trading after its full-year forecasts for Ebitda and net income missed at the midpoint.
  • GlycoMimetics (GLYC) jumps 15% postmarket after announcing that efficacy and safety data from a Phase 1/2 study of uproleselan in patients with acute myeloid leukemia were published in the journal Blood on Sept. 16.
  • VTV Therapeutics (VTVT) surges 30% after company says its HPP737 psoriasis treatment showed favorable safety and tolerability profile in a multiple ascending dose study.

Fears about a sooner-than-expected tapering amid signs of stalling U.S. economic growth and concerns over a spillover from China Evergrande’s default had rattled investors in September, putting the benchmark S&P 500 index on course to snap a seven-month winning streak. Elaine Stokes, a portfolio manager at Loomis Sayles & Co., told Bloomberg Television, adding that “what they did is tell us that they feel really good about the economy.” While the bond selloff vindicated Treasury bears who argue yields are too low to reflect fundamentals, others see limits to how high they can go.

“We’d expected bond yields to go higher, given the macro situation where growth is still very strong,” Sylvia Sheng, global multi-asset strategist with JPMorgan Asset Management, said on Bloomberg Television. “But we do stress that is a modest view, because we think that upside to yields is still limited from here given that central banks including the Fed are still buying bonds.”

Still, Wall Street’s main indexes rallied in the past two session and are set for small weekly gains.

European equities dipped at the open but trade off worst levels, with the Euro Stoxx 50 sliding as much as 1.1% before climbing off the lows. France’s CAC underperformed at the margin. Retail, financial services are the weakest performers. EQT AB, Europe’s biggest listed private equity firm, fell as much as 8.1% after Sweden’s financial watchdog opened an investigation into suspected market abuse. Here are some of the other biggest European movers today:

  • SMCP shares surge as much as 9.9%, advancing for a 9th session in 10, amid continued hopes the financial troubles of its top shareholder will ultimately lead to a sale
  • TeamViewer climbs much as 4.2% after Bankhaus Metzler initiated coverage with a buy rating, citing the company’s above-market growth
  • AstraZeneca gains as much as 3.6% after its Lynparza drug met the primary endpoint in a prostate cancer trial
  • Darktrace drops as much as 9.2%, paring the stock’s rally over the past few weeks, as a technical pattern triggered a sell signal
  • Adidas and Puma fall as much as 4% and 2.9%, respectively, after U.S. rival Nike’s “large cut” to FY sales guidance, which Jefferies said would “likely hurt” shares of European peers

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks rose for a second day, led by rallies in Japan and Taiwan, following U.S. peers higher amid optimism over the Federal Reserve’s bullish economic outlook and fading concerns over widespread contagion from Evergrande. Stocks were muted in China and Hong Kong. India’s S&P BSE Sensex topped the 60,000 level for the first time on Friday on optimism that speedier vaccinations will improve demand for businesses in Asia’s third-largest economy.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained as much as 0.7%, with TSMC and Sony the biggest boosts. That trimmed the regional benchmark’s loss for the week to about 1%. Japan’s Nikkei 225 climbed 2.1%, reopening after a holiday, pushing its advance for September to 7.7%, the best among major global gauges. The Asian regional benchmark pared its gain as Hong Kong stocks fell sharply in late afternoon trading amid continued uncertainty, with Evergrande giving no sign of making an interest payment that was due Thursday. Among key upcoming events is the leadership election for Japan’s ruling party next week, which will likely determine the country’s next prime minister. “Investor concerns over the Evergrande issue have retreated a bit for now,” said Hajime Sakai, chief fund manager at Mito Securities Co. in Tokyo. “But investors will have to keep downside risk in the corner of their minds.” Indian stocks rose, pushing the Sensex above 60,000 for the first time ever. Key gauges fell in Singapore, Malaysia and Australia, while the Thai market was closed for a holiday.

Treasuries are higher as U.S. trading day begins after rebounding from weekly lows reached during Asia session, adding to Thursday’s losses. The 10-year yield was down 1bp at ~1.42%, just above the 100-DMA breached on Thursday for the first time in three months; it climbed to 1.449% during Asia session, highest since July 6, and remains 5.2bp higher on the week, its fifth straight weekly increase. Several Fed speakers are slated, first since Wednesday’s FOMC commentary set forth a possible taper timeline.  Bunds and gilts recover off cheapest levels, curves bear steepening. USTs bull steepen, richening 1.5bps from the 10y point out. Peripheral spreads are wider. BTP spreads widen 2-3bps to Bunds.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index climbed back from a one-week low as concern about possible contagion from Evergrande added to buying of the greenback based on the Federal Reserve tapering timeline signaled on Wednesday. NZD, AUD and CAD sit at the bottom of the G-10 scoreboard. ZAR and TRY are the weakest in EM FX. The pound fell after its rally on Thursday as investors looked ahead to BOE Governor Andrew Bailey’s sPeech next week about a possible interest-rate hike. Traders are betting that in a contest to raise borrowing costs first, the Bank of England will be the runaway winner over the Federal Reserve. The New Zealand and Aussie dollars led declines among Group-of-10 peers. The euro was trading flat, with a week full of events failing “to generate any clear directional move,” said ING analysts Francesco Pesole and Chris Turner. German IFO sentiment indeces will “provide extra indications about the area’s sentiment as  businesses faced a combination of delta variant concerns and lingering supply disruptions”. The Norwegian krone is the best performing currency among G10 peers this week, with Thursday’s announcement from the Norges Bank offering support

In commodities, crude futures hold a narrow range up around best levels for the week. WTI stalls near $73.40, Brent near $77.50. Spot gold extends Asia’s gains, adding $12 on the session to trade near $1,755/oz. Base metals are mixed, LME nickel and aluminum drop ~1%, LME tin outperforms with a 2.8% rally. Bitcoin dips after the PBOC says all crypto-related transactions are illegal.

Looking to the day ahead now, we’ll hear from Fed Chair Powell, Vice Chair Clarida and the Fed’s Mester, Bowman, George and Bostic, as well as the ECB’s Lane and Elderson, and the BoE’s Tenreyro. Finally, a summit of the Quad Leaders will be held at the White House, including President Biden, and the Prime Ministers of Australia, India and Japan.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.3% to 4,423.50
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.7% to 464.18
  • German 10Y yield fell 8.5 bps to -0.236%
  • Euro little changed at $1.1737
  • MXAP up 0.4% to 201.25
  • MXAPJ down 0.5% to 643.20
  • Nikkei up 2.1% to 30,248.81
  • Topix up 2.3% to 2,090.75
  • Hang Seng Index down 1.3% to 24,192.16
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.8% to 3,613.07
  • Sensex up 0.2% to 60,031.83
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.4% to 7,342.60
  • Kospi little changed at 3,125.24
  • Brent Futures up 0.4% to $77.57/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.7% to $1,755.38
  • U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 93.14

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • China Evergrande Group’s unusual silence about a dollar-bond interest payment that was due Thursday has put a focus on what might happen during a 30-day grace period.
  • The Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target is increasingly out of step with international counterparts and fails to account for structural changes in the country’s economy over the past 30 years, Westpac Banking Corp.’s Bill Evans said.
  • With central banks from Washington to London this week signaling more alarm over faster inflation, the ultra-stimulative path of the euro zone and some of its neighbors appears lonelier than ever.
  • China’s central bank continued to pump liquidity into the financial system on Friday as policy makers sought to avoid contagion stemming from China Evergrande Group spreading to domestic markets.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asian equity markets traded mixed with the region failing to fully sustain the impetus from the positive performance across global counterparts after the silence from Evergrande and lack of coupon payments for its offshore bonds, stirred uncertainty for the company. ASX 200 (-0.4%) was negative as underperformance in mining names and real estate overshadowed the advances in tech and resilience in financials from the higher yield environment. Nikkei 225 (+2.1%) was the biggest gainer overnight as it played catch up to the prior day’s recovery on return from the Autumnal Equinox holiday in Japan and with exporters cheering the recent risk-conducive currency flows, while KOSPI (-0.1%) was lacklustre amid the record daily COVID-19 infections and after North Korea deemed that it was premature to declare that the Korean War was over. Hang Seng (-1.2%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.8%) were indecisive after further liquidity efforts by the PBoC were offset by concerns surrounding Evergrande after the Co. failed to make coupon payments due yesterday for offshore bonds but has a 30-day grace period with the Co. remaining quiet on the issue. Finally, 10yr JGBs were lower on spillover selling from global counterparts including the declines in T-notes as the US 10yr yield breached 1.40% for the first time since early-July with the pressure in bonds also stemming from across the Atlantic following a more hawkish BoE, while the presence of the BoJ in the market today for over JPY 1.3tln of government bonds with 1yr-10yr maturities did very little to spur prices.

Top Asian News

  • Rivals for Prime Minister Battle on Social Media: Japan Election
  • Asian Stocks Rise for Second Day, Led by Gains in Japan, Taiwan
  • Hong Kong Stocks Still Wagged by Evergrande Tail
  • Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Tech Index Extends Decline to More Than 2%

European equities (Stoxx 600 -0.9%) are trading on the back foot in the final trading session of the week amid further advances in global bond yields and a mixed APAC handover. Overnight, saw gains for the Nikkei 225 of 2.1% with the index aided by favourable currency flows, whilst Chinese markets lagged (Shanghai Comp. -0.8%, Hang Seng -1.6%) with further liquidity efforts by the PBoC offset by concerns surrounding Evergrande after the Co. failed to make coupon payments due yesterday for offshore bonds. As context, despite the losses in Europe today, the Stoxx 600 is still higher by some 1.2% on the week. Stateside, futures are also on a softer footing with the ES down by 0.4% ahead of a busy Fed speaker schedule. Back to Europe, sectors are lower across the board with Retail and Personal & Household Goods lagging peers. The former has been hampered by losses in Adidas (-3.0%) following after hours earnings from Nike (-4.2% pre-market) which saw the Co. cut its revenue guidance amid supply chain woes. AstraZeneca (+2.1%) sits at the top of the FTSE 100 after announcing that the Lynparza PROpel trial met its primary endpoint. Daimler’s (+0.1%) Mercedes-Benz has announced that it will take a 33% stake in a battery cell manufacturing JV with Total and Stellantis. EQT (-6.5%) sits at the foot of the Stoxx 600 after the Swedish FSA announced it will open an investigation into the Co.

Top European News

  • EQT Investigated by Sweden’s FSA Over Suspected Market Abuse
  • Gazprom Says Claims of Gas Under-supply to Europe Are ‘Absurd’
  • German Sept. Ifo Business Confidence 98.8; Est. 99
  • German Business Index at Five-Month Low in Pre-Election Verdict

In FX, the rot seems to have stopped for the Buck in terms of its sharp and marked fall from grace amidst post-FOMC reflection and re-positioning in the financial markets on Thursday. Indeed, the Dollar index has regained some poise to hover above the 93.000 level having recoiled from 93.526 to 92.977 over the course of yesterday’s hectic session that saw the DXY register a marginal new w-t-d high and low at either end of the spectrum. Pre-weekend short covering and consolidation may be giving the Greenback a lift, while the risk backdrop is also less upbeat ahead of a raft of Fed speakers flanking US new home sales data. Elsewhere, the Euro remains relatively sidelined and contained against the Buck with little independent inspiration from the latest German Ifo survey as the business climate deteriorated broadly in line with consensus and current conditions were worse than forecast, but business expectations were better than anticipated. Hence, Eur/Usd is still stuck in a rut and only briefly/fractionally outside 1.1750-00 parameters for the entire week, thus far, as hefty option expiry interest continues to keep the headline pair in check. However, there is significantly less support or gravitational pull at the round number today compared to Thursday as ‘only’ 1.3 bn rolls off vs 4.1 bn, and any upside breach could be capped by 1.1 bn between 1.1765-85.

  • CAD/NZD/AUD – Some payback for the non-US Dollars following their revival, with the Loonie waning from 1.2650+ peaks ahead of Canadian budget balances, though still underpinned by crude as WTI hovers around Usd 73.50/brl and not far from decent option expiries (from 1.2655-50 and 1.2625-30 in 1.4 bn each). Similarly, the Kiwi has faded after climbing to within single digits of 0.7100 in wake of NZ trade data overnight revealing a much wider deficit as exports slowed and imports rose, while the Aussie loses grip of the 0.7300 handle and skirts 1.1 bn option expiries at 0.7275.
  • CHF/GBP/JPY – The Franc is fairly flat and restrained following a dovish SNB policy review that left in lagging somewhat yesterday, with Usd/Chf and Eur/Chf straddling 0.9250 and 1.0850 respectively, in contrast to Sterling that is paring some hawkish BoE momentum, as Cable retreats to retest bids circa 1.3700 and Eur/Gbp bounces from sub-0.8550. Elsewhere, the Yen has not been able to fend off further downside through 110.00 even though Japanese participants have returned to the fray after the Autumn Equinox holiday and reports suggest some COVID-19 restrictions may be lifted in 13 prefectures on a trial basis.
  • SCANDI/EM/PM/CRYPTO – A slight change in the pecking order in Scandi-land as the Nok loses some post-Norges Bank hike impetus and the Sek unwinds a bit of its underperformance, but EM currencies are bearing the brunt of the aforementioned downturn in risk sentiment and firmer Usd, with the Zar hit harder than other as Gold is clings to Usd 1750/oz and Try down to deeper post-CBRT rate cut lows after mixed manufacturing sentiment and cap u readings. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is being shackled by the latest Chinese crackdown on mining and efforts to limit risks from what it describes as unlawful speculative crypto currency trading.

In commodities, WTI and Brent are set the conclude the week in the green with gains in excess of 2% for WTI at the time of writing; in-spite of the pressure seen in the complex on Monday and the first-half of Tuesday, where a sub USD 69.50/bbl low was printed. Fresh newsflow has, once again, been limited for the complex and continues to focus on the gas situation. More broadly, no update as of yet on the Evergrande interest payment and by all accounts we appear to have entered the 30-day grace period for this and, assuming catalysts remain slim, updates on this will may well dictate the state-of-play. Schedule wise, the session ahead eyes significant amounts of central bank commentary but from a crude perspective the weekly Baker Hughes rig count will draw attention. On the weather front, Storm Sam has been upgraded to a Hurricane and is expected to rapidly intensify but currently remains someway into the mid-Atlantic. Moving to metals, LME copper is pivoting the unchanged mark after a mixed APAC lead while attention is on Glencore’s CSA copper mine, which it has received an offer for; the site in 2020 produced circa. 46k/T of copper which is typically exported to Asia smelters. Elsewhere, spot gold and silver are firmer but have been very contained and remain well-within overnight ranges thus far. Which sees the yellow metal holding just above the USD 1750/oz mark after a brief foray below the level after the US-close.

US Event Calendar

  • 10am: Aug. New Home Sales MoM, est. 1.0%, prior 1.0%
  • 10am: Aug. New Home Sales, est. 715,000, prior 708,000

Central Bank Speakers

  • 8:45am: Fed’s Mester Discusses the Economic Outlook
  • 10am: Powell, Clarida and Bowman Host Fed Listens Event
  • 10:05am: Fed’s George Discusses Economic Outlook
  • 12pm: Fed’s Bostic Discusses Equitable Community Development

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

WFH today is a bonus as it’s time for the annual ritual at home where the latest, sleekest, shiniest iPhone model arrives in the post and i sheepishly try to justify to my wife when I get home why I need an incremental upgrade. This year to save me from the Spanish Inquisition I’m going to intercept the courier and keep quiet. Problem is that such speed at intercepting the delivery will be logistically challenging as I remain on crutches (5 weeks to go) and can’t grip properly with my left hand due to an ongoing trapped nerve. I’m very glad I’m not a racehorse. Although hopefully I can be put out to pasture in front of the Ryder Cup this weekend.

The big news of the last 24 hours has been a galloping global yield rise worthy of the finest thoroughbred. A hawkish Fed meeting, with the dots increasing and the end of QE potentially accelerated, didn’t quite have the ability to move markets but the global dam finally broke yesterday with Norway being the highest profile developed country to raise rates this cycle (expected), but more importantly a Bank of England meeting that saw the market reappraise rate hikes.

Looking at the specific moves, yields on 10yr Treasuries were up +13.0bps to 1.430% in their biggest daily increase since 25 February, as both higher real rates (+7.9bps) and inflation breakevens (+4.9bps) drove the advance. US 10yr yields had been trading in a c.10bp range for the last month before breaking out higher, though they have been trending higher since dropping as far as 1.17% back in early-August. US 30yr yields rose +13.2bps, which was the biggest one day move in long dated yields since March 17 2020, which was at the onset of the pandemic and just days after the Fed announced it would be starting the current round of QE. The large selloff in US bonds saw the yield curve steepen and the long-end give back roughly half of the FOMC flattening from the day before. The 5y30y curve steepened 3.4bps for a two day move of -3.3bps. However the 2y10y curve steepened +10.5bps, completely reversing the prior day’s flattening (-4.2bps) and leaving the spread at 116bp, the steepest level since first week of July.

10yr gilt yields saw nearly as strong a move (+10.8bps) with those on shorter-dated 2yr gilts (+10.7bps) hitting their highest level (0.386%) since the pandemic began.That came on the back of the BoE’s latest policy decision, which pointed in a hawkish direction, building on the comment in the August statement that “some modest tightening of monetary policy over the forecast period is likely to be necessary” by saying that “some developments during the intervening period appear to have strengthened that case”. The statement pointed out that the rise in gas prices since August represented an upside risks to their inflation projections from next April, and the MPC’s vote also saw 2 members (up from 1 in August) vote to dial back QE. See DB’s Sanjay Raja’s revised rate hike forecasts here. We now expect a 15bps hike in February.

The generalised move saw yields in other European countries rise as well, with those on 10yr bunds (+6.6bps), OATs (+6.5bps) and BTPs (+5.7bps) all seeing big moves higher with 10yr bunds seeing their biggest climb since late-February and back to early-July levels as -0.258%.

The yield rise didn’t stop equity indices recovering further from Monday’s rout, with the S&P 500 up +1.21% as the index marked its best performance in over 2 months, and its best 2-day performance since May. Despite the mood at the end of the weekend, the S&P now starts Friday in positive territory for the week. The rally yesterday was led by cyclicals for a second straight day with higher commodity prices driving outsized gains for energy (+3.41%) and materials (+1.39%) stocks, and the aforementioned higher yields causing banks (+3.37%) and diversified financials (+2.35%) to outperform. The reopening trade was the other main beneficiary as airlines rose +2.99% and consumer services, which include hotel and cruiseline companies, gained +1.92%. In Europe, the STOXX 600 (+0.93%) witnessed a similarly strong performance, with index led by banks (+2.16%). As a testament to the breadth of yesterday’s rally, the travel and leisure sector (+0.04%) was the worst performing sector on this side of the Atlantic even while registering a small gain and lagging its US counterparts.

Before we get onto some of yesterday’s other events, it’s worth noting that this is actually the last EMR before the German election on Sunday, which has long been signposted as one of the more interesting macro events on the 2021 calendar, the results of which will play a key role in not just domestic, but also EU policy. And with Chancellor Merkel stepping down after four terms in office, this means that the country will soon be under new management irrespective of who forms a government afterwards. It’s been a volatile campaign in many respects, with Chancellor Merkel’s CDU/CSU, the Greens and the centre-left SPD all having been in the lead at various points over the last six months. But for the last month Politico’s Poll of Polls has shown the SPD consistently ahead, with their tracker currently putting them on 25%, ahead of the CDU/CSU on 22% and the Greens on 16%. However the latest poll from Forschungsgruppe Wahlen yesterday suggested a tighter race with the SPD at 25, the CDU/CSU at 23% and the Greens at 16.5%.

If the actual results are in line with the recent averages, it would certainly mark a sea change in German politics, as it would be the first time that the SPD have won the popular vote since the 2002 election. Furthermore, it would be the CDU/CSU’s worst ever result, and mark the first time in post-war Germany that the two main parties have failed to win a majority of the vote between them, which mirrors the erosion of the traditional big parties in the rest of continental Europe. For the Greens, 15% would be their best ever score, and exceed the 9% they got back in 2017 that left them in 6th place, but it would also be a disappointment relative to their high hopes back in the spring, when they were briefly polling in the mid-20s after Annalena Baerbock was selected as their Chancellor candidate.

In terms of when to expect results, the polls close at 17:00 London time, with initial exit polls released immediately afterwards. However, unlike the UK, where a new majority government can immediately come to power the day after the election, the use of proportional representation in Germany means that it could potentially be weeks or months before a new government is formed. Indeed, after the last election in September 2017, it wasn’t until March 2018 that the new grand coalition between the CDU/CSU and the SPD took office, after attempts to reach a “Jamaica” coalition between the CDU/CSU, the FDP and the Greens was unsuccessful. In the meantime, the existing government will act as a caretaker administration.

On the policy implications, it will of course depend on what sort of government is actually formed, but our research colleagues in Frankfurt have produced a comprehensive slidepack (link here) running through what the different parties want across a range of policies, and what the likely coalitions would mean for Germany. They also put out another note yesterday (link here) where they point out that there’s still much to play for, with the SPD’s lead inside the margin of error and with an unusually high share of yet undecided voters.

Moving on to Asia and markets are mostly higher with the Nikkei (+2.04%), CSI (+0.53%) and India’s Nifty (+0.52%) up while the Hang Seng (-0.03%), Shanghai Comp (-0.07%) and Kospi (-0.10%) have all made small moves lower. Meanwhile, the Evergrande group missed its dollar bond coupon payment yesterday and so far there has been no communication from the group on this. They have a 30-day grace period to make the payment before any event of default can be declared. This follows instructions from China’s Financial regulators yesterday in which they urged the group to take all measures possible to avoid a near-term default on dollar bonds while focusing on completing unfinished properties and repaying individual investors.

Yields on Australia and New Zealand’s 10y sovereign bonds are up +14.5bps and +11.3bps respectively this morning after yesterday’s move from their western counterparts. Yields on 10y USTs are also up a further +1.1bps to 1.443%. Elsewhere, futures on the S&P 500 are up +0.04% while those on the Stoxx 50 are down -0.10%. In terms of overnight data, Japan’s August CPI printed at -0.4% yoy (vs. -0.3% yoy expected) while core was unchanged in line with expectations. We also received Japan’s flash PMIs with the services reading at 47.4 (vs. 42.9 last month) while the manufacturing reading came in at 51.2 (vs. 52.7 last month). In pandemic related news, Jiji reported that Japan is planning to conduct trials of easing Covid restrictions, with 13 prefectures indicating they’d like to participate. This is likely contributing to the outperformance of the Nikkei this morning.

Back to yesterday now, and one of the main highlights came from the flash PMIs, which showed a continued deceleration in growth momentum across Europe and the US, and also underwhelmed relative to expectations. Running through the headline numbers, the Euro Area composite PMI fell to 56.1 (vs. 58.5 expected), which is the lowest figure since April, as both the manufacturing (58.7 vs 60.3 expected) and services (56.3 vs. 58.5 expected) came in beneath expectations. Over in the US, the composite PMI fell to 54.5 in its 4th consecutive decline, as the index hit its lowest level in a year, while the UK’s composite PMI at 54.1 (vs. 54.6 expected) was the lowest since February when the country was still in a nationwide lockdown.

Risk assets seemed unperturbed by the readings, and commodities actually took another leg higher as they rebounded from their losses at the start of the week. The Bloomberg Commodity Spot index rose +1.12% as Brent crude oil (+1.39%) closed at $77.25/bbl, which marked its highest closing level since late 2018, while WTI (+1.07%) rose to $73.30/bbl, so still a bit beneath its recent peak in July. However that is a decent rebound of roughly $11/bbl since its recent low just over a month ago. Elsewhere, gold (-1.44%) took a knock amidst the sharp move higher in yields, while European natural gas prices subsidised for a third day running, with futures now down -8.5% from their intraday peak on Tuesday, although they’re still up by +71.3% since the start of August.

US negotiations regarding the upcoming funding bill and raising the debt ceiling are ongoing, with House Speaker Pelosi saying that the former, also called a continuing resolution, will pass “both houses by September 30,” and fund the government through the first part of the fiscal year, starting October 1. Treasury Secretary Yellen has said the US will likely breach the debt ceiling sometime in the next month if Congress does not increase the level, and because Republicans are unwilling to vote to raise the ceiling, Democrats will have to use the once-a-fiscal-year tool of budget reconciliation to do so. However Democrats, are also using that process for the $3.5 trillion dollar economic plan that makes up the bulk of the Biden agenda, and have not been able to get full party support yet. During a joint press conference with Speaker Pelosi, Senate Majority Leader Schumer said that Democrats have a “framework” to pay for the Biden Economic agenda, which would imply that the broad outline of a deal was reached between the House, Senate and the White House. However, no specifics were mentioned yesterday. With Democrats looking to vote on the bipartisan infrastructure bill early next week, negotiations today and this weekend on the potential reconciliation package will be vital.

Looking at yesterday’s other data, the weekly initial jobless claims from the US for the week through September 18 unexpectedly rose to 351k (vs. 320k expected), which is the second week running they’ve come in above expectations. Separately, the Chicago Fed’s national activity index fell to 0.29 in August (vs. 0.50 expected), and the Kansas City Fed’s manufacturing activity index also fell more than expected to 22 in September (vs. 25 expected).

To the day ahead now, and data highlights include the Ifo’s business climate indicator from Germany for September, along with Italian consumer confidence for September and US new home sales for August. From central banks, we’ll hear from Fed Chair Powell, Vice Chair Clarida and the Fed’s Mester, Bowman, George and Bostic, as well as the ECB’s Lane and Elderson, and the BoE’s Tenreyro. Finally, a summit of the Quad Leaders will be held at the White House, including President Biden, and the Prime Ministers of Australia, India and Japan.

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)FRIDAY MORNING/THURSDAY  NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 29.15 PTS OR .60%   //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 318.82 PTS OR 1.30%/The Nikkei closed UP 609.41 PTS OR 2.06%    //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.42%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN TO 6.4580  /Oil UP TO 73.08 dollars per barrel for WTI and UP TO 77.25 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED  /ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED  DOWN AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.4580. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.4582/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%/

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

/NORTH KOREA//SOUTH KOREA

This is good!!

Kim’s Sister Says North Korea Open To “Constructive” Talks With South

 
FRIDAY, SEP 24, 2021 – 02:20 PM

The powerful sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, Kim Yo Jong, has issued a surprise statement on Friday saying Pyongyang is open to resumption of talks with South Korea but on condition that Seoul would press the Biden administration to relax the US continued crippling sanctions on the extremely isolated country.

“Only when such a precondition is met, would it be possible to sit face to face and declare the significant termination of war and discuss the issue of the north-south relations and the future of the Korean peninsula,” she said.

Pyongyang Press Corps Pool/AP

She was responding to South Korean President Moon Jae-in’s speech before the UN General Assembly in New York this week wherein he urged a political declaration to the end of the Korean War (1950-1953), which has never been declared formally ended. Kim Yo Jong immediately dismissed this while citing the crippling sanctions by the south’s powerful backer Washington.

She said the south must drop its “hostile” stance while saying in the remarks carried by state media:

“Smiling a forced smile, reading the declaration of the termination of the war, and having photos taken could be essential for somebody, but I think that they would hold no water and would change nothing, given the existing inequality, serious contradiction therefrom and hostilities.”

“Under such a situation it does not make any sense to declare the end of the war with all the things, which may become a seed of a war between parties that have been at odds for more than half a century, left intact,” Kim said further.

She said “constructive” talks could be restored, but on condition of the following: 

“What needs to be dropped is the double-dealing attitudes, illogical prejudice, bad habits and hostile stand of justifying their own acts while faulting our just exercise of the right to self-defense,” she said.

Only when such a precondition is met, would it be possible to sit face to face and declare the significant termination of war and discuss the issue of the north-south relations and the future of the Korean peninsula.”

A mere week ago both the north and south were provocatively test firing missiles in ‘warning’ messages, so the mere teasing of a possibility of a chance for restored dialogue is being welcomed as a significant opening.

 
end

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

JAPAN/COVID/

 
 
 

3 C CHINA

CHINA/CRYPTOS

This will be a big blow to cryptos: China declares all virtual currency transactions illegal

(zerohedge)

China Declares All Virtual Currency Transactions “Illegal”, Sending Crypto Prices Tumbling

 
FRIDAY, SEP 24, 2021 – 07:17 AM

China expanded its escalating crackdown on cryptocurrencies on Friday when its central bank declared that all activities related to digital coins are “illegal” and must be banned.

In a statement the People’s Bank of China said the latest notice was to further prevent the risks surrounding crypto trading and to maintain national security and social stability.

Curiously, the statement is dated September 15, but only hit the central bank’s website at 5pm on Friday.

Incidentally, the news was already priced in once, with rumors of PBOC crackdown sending the price of bitcoin lower in mid-September when Bitcoin traded just below $50,000.

Naming bitcoin, ether and tether as examples, the central bank said cryptocurrencies are issued by nonmonetary authorities, use encryption technologies and exist in digital form and should not be circulated and used in the market as currencies. The PBOC specifically targeted overseas cryptocurrency exchanges declaring that it was illegal for them to provide online services to residents in China.

The statement is the culmination of years of failed crackdowns on cryptos and is nothing new for the authoritarian state. In 2013, the country ordered third-party payment providers to stop using bitcoin. Chinese authorities put a stop to token sales in 2017 and banned crypto exchanges from operating within its borders in 2019 but individuals in the country continued to find ways to trade bitcoin and other digital currencies via over-the-counter or peer-to-peer transactions. More recently, the country banned all crypto mining, which however only prompted miners to shift offshore.

In May this year, a powerful Chinese superregulator pledged to crack down on bitcoin trading and energy-intensive mining, helping to send the price of bitcoin tumbling, only to rebound again. Financial regulators in the country have also gotten tougher on banks and payment companies and in June ordered them to take a more active role in weeding out crypto-related transactions.

This latest harsh directive, which sent Bitcoin dropping over 8% on Friday, comes as global markets have grown increasingly concerned over a debt crisis involving property developer China Evergrande Group, and which many speculated would lead to a surge in capital outflows via cryptos that bypass China’s great firewall. The Chinese government may also be responding to signs that miners are disguising their activities to stay in business according to Bloomberg.

Vijay Ayyar, head of Asia Pacific with cryptocurrency exchange Luno in Singapore, said that while the Chinese government has made similar statements in the past, it is “a slightly nervous environment for crypto with the recent SEC comments and overall macro environment with the Evergrande news. So any comments of this nature will cause a sell-of in risky assets.”

Investors should expect “knee-jerk price reaction as China takes the wind out of Bitcoin’s sails,” said Antoni Trenchev, co-founder of crypto lender Nexo.  “The recent rebound from just below $40,000 has likely run its course for now.” 

The nation’s economic planning agency also said it is an urgent task for China to root out crypto mining, and the crackdown is important to meet carbon goals.

It was unclear what prompted the latest crackdown, however one theory is that it’s part of a broader law-and-order push ahead of the 100th anniversary of the Chinese Communist Party this year. Another more likely theory is that China is aggressively clearing the runway for its very own digital yuan, a central bank digital currency that’s been in development since 2014, and whose market reception has been catastrophic so far.

The most likely reason behind the crackdown is that Beijing is simply looking to stem capital outflows via stablecoins and cryptocurrencies. As a reminder, tether remains one of the preferred conduits for Chinese resident to launder over $1 trillion in domestic currency abroad. And with turmoil emerging from the Evergrande default and imminent deterioration in the property sector, it is inevitable that Beijing is fearing a new flood of outbound capital transfers will follow so it is taking preemptive steps.

Then there are those who suggest that such attempts to ban bitcoin will only further streghten it showing its resilience and ability to withstand sovereign pressure. Back in July, after another similar crackdown by China, Alyse Killeen, founder and managing partner of bitcoin-focused venture firm Stillmark, told CNBC that this whole conversation may be a moot point, as a government’s capacity to effect a bitcoin ban will only continue to erode over time.

“I’d expect this type of news to have less of an impact on bitcoin’s exchange rate than it has historically,” she said. “It’s also true that there has been some level of industry inoculation to this news – bitcoin has been banned many times in many geographies, and yet today adoption is outpacing internet adoption at a similar lifecycle stage.”

end

CHINA/ECONOMIC NEWS

Chairman and the new CEO of the huge failed conglomerate HNA arrested for ‘suspected crime”. They will be disappeared..

(zerohedge)

Chairman, CEO Of China’s HNA Group Arrested For “Suspected Crime”

 
FRIDAY, SEP 24, 2021 – 08:28 AM

Three years after the the chairman of China’s failed conglomerate HNA Group Wang Jian died during a business trip in France on July 3 in what local police then said appeared to be an accidental fall from a wall while posing for a photograph, moments ago HNA Group – which was one of the biggest Chinese corporate failures and has been restructuring its operations after a $50 billion merger spree in the mid 2010s led to the company’s insolvency – reported on its official WeChat account that the the company’s current Chairman Chen Feng was “taken away” by police due to suspected criminal offenses. HNA’s CEO Tan Xiangdong was also taken away by police for suspected crime, it added.

Chen Feng

The statement did not say what the crime is but clarified that HNA’s operations are unaffected and that its bankruptcy and restructuring is moving forward smoothly.

Chen Feng became chairman of HNA shortly after the bizarre death of the company’s previous Chairman Wang Jian. And as we wait to learn some more about the fate – or crimes – of the company’s top two officials, we remind readers of some more details surrounding the mysterious death in July 2018 of HNA’s former Chairman Wang Jian died when he fell 15 meters off a wall in the village of Bonnieux, near Avignon, a picturesque area popular with tourists, lieutenant-colonel Hubert Meriaux of the Vaucluse gendarmerie force told Reuters.

“He stood on the edge of a sharp drop to get his family to take a picture of him and fell,” he said.

His death complicated the troubled conglomerate’s efforts to restructure and pay off borrowings.

Wang’s death couldn’t have come at a worse time, said Brock Silvers, founder and managing director of Kaiyuan Capital, a Shanghai-based investment advisory firm.

“Deleveraging pressures on HNA continue to be enormous, and all such plans will probably now be revisited as the management team reconstitutes itself,” he said.

Wang told employees earlier this year that the company’s difficulties were the result of a “major conspiracy” against the ruling Communist Party and President Xi Jinping by foreign and domestic “reactionary forces”, according to an internally-distributed email.

Wang was regarded as the architect of an eye-popping $50 billion acquisition spree that saw HNA accumulate assets ranging from a stake in Deutsche Bank AG to high-profile overseas properties. Under pressure from Beijing, HNA has since sold off many of those assets to slash debt.

China Steps In To Ensure Evergrande Funds Used To Complete Housing Project, Not Pay Creditors

 
FRIDAY, SEP 24, 2021 – 10:35 AM

Is this the start of China’s nationalization of Evergrande?

With Evergrande’s foreign bondholders saying they have yet to receive a closely watched $83.5 million interest payment that was due at midnight in New York on Thursday, or noon on Friday in Hong Kong, in effect starting a 30 day grace period before a hard default is triggered, Bloomberg reports that China’s housing regulator has “stepped up oversight of China Evergrande Group’s bank accounts to ensure funds are used to complete housing projects and not diverted to pay creditors.”

In other words, China is now not only deciding how the insolvent developer distributes its cash flow and, but is also forcing it to prioritize operational outlays over payments to creditors, a step which companies traditionally take after they have filed for bankruptcy. The move is a confirmation that homeowners come first on Beijing’s priority list for managing the Evergrande crisis – in hopes of preventing a major hit to China’s property sector – even as bondholders, banks and other creditors seek repayments on more than $300 billion in liabilities from the world’s most indebted developer.

According to the report, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development instructed local subsidiaries across China last month to supervise funds for Evergrande’s property projects in special escrow accounts.

Under the heightened oversight, the developer’s funds must first be used for construction to ensure project delivery. Furthermore, cash payments from these government-supervised accounts, such as paying suppliers, will be subject to state approval; local bureaus in some cities have already started to implement the measures.

Meanwhile, the cash-strapped firm has not only not made the payment on offshore bonds, but Asia’s largest issuer of junk-rated dollar bonds has also kept a complete radiosilence failing to make a stock exchange filing or public comment about the coupon. Three holders of the note told Bloomberg they haven’t received payment.

While few will dub this creeping takeover of Evergrande for the nationalization it is, Bloomberg does note that “the bank account restrictions underscore that policymakers are taking a more active role in the turmoil as missed payments by Evergrande on investment products spark protests across the country.”

In July, a Chinese city halted sales at two Evergrande projects alleging the troubled developer misappropriated funds by only depositing a portion of the proceeds from housing sales into the escrow accounts, according to a local government statement.  To ensure Evergrande doesn’t divert these funds, the housing bureau in Nansha district created an escrow account under its own name this month to take in proceeds from Evergrande homebuyers, cutting off the developer’s direct access to the money.

A lack of funds has already led to a construction halt on some unfinished housing properties, sparking social unrest among buyers. In Guangzhou, buyers surrounded a local housing bureau earlier this month to demand Evergrande restart construction.

Separately, in an attempt to preserve continuity of Evergrande operations, including maintaining construction and project delivery, a focal point to resolve Evergrande’s liquidity crisis in an effort to steer retail investors away from cash repayment on its wealth products, the company has pushed them to accept deeply discounted properties, both to individuals and to companies. However, many of the projects aren’t finished.

As previously reported, Evergrande owes about $147 billion in trade and other payables to suppliers as part of its attempt to mask its indebtedness; the company received down payments on yet-to-be-completed properties from about 1.6 million homebuyers as of December.

Evergrande founding Chairman, and formerly China’s second richest man, Hui Ka Yan has emphasized the importance of completing housing projects, telling staff on Wednesday that only by fully resuming construction and sales can Evergrande ensure homebuyers’ rights.

Meanwhile, the biggest priority for Beijing is simpler: preserving social orde. Disgruntled retail investors gathered at the company’s Shenzhen headquarters for at least three straight days this month, and unconfirmed videos of protests against the developer in other parts of China have been shared widely online.

end

China’s housing sector is now frozen and that is basically 62% of their economy. Huge risks!

(ZEROHEDGE)

 

“The Housing Market Is Almost Frozen” – An Even Bigger Problem Emerges For China

 
 
FRIDAY, SEP 24, 2021 – 01:00 PM

With Wall Street’s fascination with risk associated with Evergrande’s default fading fast, and the sellside pumping out charts such as this one showing that the contagion in China junk bond market is unlikely to spillover globally…

… the smartest men in the room are once again missing the forest for the trees because as we explained in detail over the weekend, and again reminded earlier this week…

… for Beijing the real risk is not whether foreign creditors are impacted – in fact Evergrande’s willingness to default on offshore bondholders while preserving operational cash flow and continuing to build homes shows just how much China “cares” about Blackrock’s P&L – but how an Evergrande crisis could impact China’s massive, $60 trillion, property sector, something which CCB International, the Chinese investment bank, touched on in a recent research note in which it said that Evergrande “contagion risk has spread from financing to land sales, property sales, project deliveries and home prices.”

And indeed, as the FT reports this morning, some very ominous cracks in China’s property market – which according to Goldman is the largest asset class globally – are starting to emerge.

In a letter to the Shaoxing municipal government in eastern Zhejiang province, the local office of developer Sunac China appealed for “policy assistance” as it was struggling through what it called a “turning point in China’s real estate industry.”

“We have never experienced such a radical change in the external environment,” Sunac’s Shaoxing office said, pointing to a 60% year-on-year fall in home sales over the summer.

“The market is almost frozen,” it added in the letter, which was first reported by the Financial Times. “The radical change in policy and environment has seriously disrupted our business and made it very difficult to maintain normal operations.”

The sudden, sharp collapse in China’s property market is shown in the charts below which reveal that the amount of actual land transactions was not only well below the land supply in recent weeks, an unprecedented divergence, but that volumes were 65% below year-ago levels as potential buyers are suddenly terrified of investing in real estate as the Evergrande fate remains in limbo, with some worried that some of the 65 million empty apartments could hit the market and lead to a crash in property values.

While the plunge in transactions is demand-induced, there are also concerns that an Evergrande insolvency and eventual collapse could lead to a supply crunch. As reported earlier, in July a Chinese city halted sales at two Evergrande projects alleging the troubled developer misappropriated funds by only depositing a portion of the proceeds from housing sales into the escrow accounts, according to a local government statement.  To ensure Evergrande doesn’t divert these funds, the housing bureau in Nansha district created an escrow account under its own name this month to take in proceeds from Evergrande homebuyers, cutting off the developer’s direct access to the money.

A lack of funds has already led to a construction halt on some unfinished housing properties, sparking social unrest among buyers. In Guangzhou, buyers surrounded a local housing bureau earlier this month to demand Evergrande restart construction.

As we discussed over the weekend, one of the most troubling downstream consequences from chaos in the property sector would be social unrest, and as we noted, maintaining social order has always been a key priority for the Communist Party, which has no tolerance for protests of any kind.

In Guangzhou, homebuyers surrounded a local housing bureau last week to demand Evergrande restart stalled construction. Disgruntled retail investors have gathered at the companys Shenzhen headquarters for at least three straight days this week, and videos of protests against the developer in other parts of China have been shared widely online.

Without a social safety net and with limited places to put their money, Chinese savers have for years been encouraged to buy homes whose prices were only ever supposed to go up (similar to the US before 2007 when even idiots like Ben Bernanke said that the US housing market never goes down). Today, buying a house (or two) is a cultural touchstone. And while housing affordability has become a hot topic in the West, many Chinese are more likely to protest falling home prices than spiking ones.

Which brings us to a must read report from Goldman’s Kinger Lau published overnight and focusing entirely on China’s property sector – instead of just Evergrande – where it addresses a glaring dilemma: Beijing’s desire to regulate and deleverage the housing sector even as it keeps property prices rising, a dynamic we summarized concisely earlier this week inside a tweet:

In his must read report (available for professional subscribers in the usual place) Goldman’s Lau explains that what is going on with Evergrande, and in fact the turmoil gripping China’s broader property sector is largely self-inflicted as “regulatory actions in China Internet have resulted in more than US$1tn market cap loss on the tech sector since mid-Feb, but in the past two weeks, investor focus has shifted to the US$60tn China property market which is linked to ~20% of Chinese GDP and represents 62% of household wealth.”

Specifically, Goldman notes that more than 400 new property regulations (shown in the appendix) that are largely tightening in nature have been announced ytd to restrain housing market activity, spanning supply, demand, funding, leverage, to price control measures. It is these measures that have contributed to a 14% year-on-year fall in property sales and $90 billion of market-cap losses among developer stocks in 3Q alone.

In his attempt to summarize the critical linkages between China’s all-important property sector and the broader economy (something we first tried to do back in 2017 in “Why The Fate Of The World Economy Is In The Hands Of China’s Housing Bubble“), Goldman first focuses on the immediate catalyst behind the current crisis, which according to the bank has to do with the unprecedented regulatory tightening “in the largest asset class globally.”

Or, as Goldman puts it succinctly, “Property is everywhere in China

Some explanatory notes on the chart above:

  • The regulatory cycle keeps evolving: The ongoing regulatory tightening cycle, which is unprecedented in terms of its duration, intensity, scope, and velocity (of new regulation announcement) as suggested by our POE regulation proxy, has so far provoked significant concerns among investors in and have resulted in more than US$1tn market cap loss on China Tech.
  • From Tech to Social Sector, and then to Property: According to Centaline, more than 400 new property regulations have been unveiled ytd across the central and local governments to address the issues of rising property prices and imbalanced supply/demand in certain areas, over-reliance on property for economic growth and fiscal revenues, and potential speculation in the real estate market where 22% of property could be vacant and ~60% of recent-year purchases were driven by investment demand. Property market tightening isn’t a new feature in the Chinese policy cycle over the past decade, but the severity of the measures, the scope of tightening, and the determination of policy implementation (e.g. the 3 Red Lines) are arguably unprecedented.
  • China property is big: Almost two years ago, Goldman took a deep dive into the US$40tn Chinese residential housing market and analyzed its impacts on macro and asset markets. Since then, the market has grown to US$60tn in notional value including inventory, likely the largest asset class in the world on current prices. It has also registered Rmb26tn (US$4tn) of home sales with more than 3bn sqm of GFA being sold, almost 3x the size of HK SAR. Additionally, it is well-documented that Chinese households have a strong investment and allocation bias towards real assets for different economic and cultural reasons—as of Aug 2021, property accounted for around 62% of household assets in both the total and net terms, vs. 23% in the US and 36% in Japan, where stocks are the dominant household assets.
  • Property is ubiquitous in China, fundamentally and financially: Goldman economists estimate that the housing sector contributes to around 20% of GDP via direct and indirect channels such as property FAI, property construction supply chain, consumption, and wealth effect. In the financial markets, 15% of aggregate market earnings (i.e. ~US$150bn out of US$1tn in 2020) could be exposed to ‘property demand’ in the extended housing construction-to-sale cycle which typically spans over three years, and that property-related loans (developer loans, mortgages, shadow banking)/ developer bonds represent 35%/23% of banks’ loan books/the outstanding balance of the offshore USD credit (IG + HY) market,respectively.

And visually:

While a full-blown property crisis would impact virtually every aspect of the Chinese economy, starting with capital markets, shadow banks, and social stability, the most immediate one for global investors is of course, the equity market. Here are Goldman’s key observations on this topic:

The regulation headwinds have resulted in a noticeable slowdown in property activities in recent months: nationwide property sales have fallen 14% yoy in3Q21 alongside stable prices in the primary market but large declines of transactions in the secondary market; property FAI and new starts have fallend rastically, although completion growth momentum has remained strong largely on favorable base effects.

At the macro level, Goldman economists have laid out 3 scenarios to model the contagion impacts from reduced property impulse on macro growth. Overall, they see 2022 GDP growth hit ranging from 1.4% to 4.1% depending on the magnitude/severity of the property market slowdown and the tightening of financial conditions domestically, although their scenario analysis does not take into consideration potential monetary and fiscal policy easing in response to the property market declines.

While listed developers only account for 4% of earnings in the aggregate listed universe, the housing market could be linked, directly and indirectly, to ~15% of corporate earnings, and every 10pp growth deceleration in housing activity could reduce profit growth of the housing market by ~2pp, all else equal.

Broadly, Goldman lists five key transmission mechanisms along the extended property market food chain:

  • Property developers and management companies (4% of equity market earnings): Developers’ earnings are highly sensitive to the property market fundamentals. However, given the time lag between transaction (pre-sales) and revenue recognition (accrual-based accounting), reported earnings usually lag sales by around 2 years, meaning that their current- and next-year earnings may not fully reflect the latest situation in the physical market. For property management companies, their near-term earnings profile is more sensitive to completions than sales but slowing property sales could dampen their future growth prospect.
  • Financial institutions (54% of equity market earnings): Developer loans and mortgage loans account for 35% of commercial banks’ aggregate loan book. Goldman’s banks analysts see the potential for mortgage NPLs to rise (at 0.3% now, 1% increase in mortgage NPL ratio translates into 18.7% drop in net profits per their bear case) although their risk exposures to property-related WMPs have fallen substantially since 2016. For insurers, Goldman’s team believes the listed insurers’ exposure to the property sector is low, but the potential indirect wealth effect could pose a bigger fundamental challenge. While not directly linked to the housing market, equity brokers’ earnings cycles have been negatively correlated with property sales, likely reflecting the asset allocation decisions/flows from Chinese households between the two asset classes.
  • Construction (2% of equity market earnings): From new property FAI start to completion, the construction cycle for commodity housing typically lasts 20-30 months in China. It drives demand for construction materials (China is the largest consumer of copper, iron ore and steel), although the focus of materials and their consumption intensity varies in different parts of the cycle. The process also directly impacts construction-related equipment, with excavators, heavy-duty trucks, bulldozers, cranes, and loaders all exhibiting reasonably high demand correlation with land sales.
  • Consumption: (3% of equity market earnings): Whether property purchase is considered consumption (at least for first time buyer) remains an open-ended debate, but the housing market is undoubtedly a key demand driver for a wide range of consumption items, including white goods,consumer durables like furniture equipment, and certain electronic products(e.g. Audio devices and air conditioners). Goldman’s study shows that housing completion usually leads the sales and earnings in these sectors by 6-9months.
  • Wealth effect (1% of equity market earnings): At the micro level, capital appreciation (or depreciation) in the housing market could have short-term material impact on discretionary spending given the potential wealth creation from the US$60tn asset market, especially considering the relatively high investment ratios there. Industries that are sensitive to this channel encompass the Autos (luxury), Macau gaming, HK retailers and travel-related companies (before the pandemic), which tend to lag property sales by around two quarters, although these relationships may be also reflective of the broader macro dynamics including liquidity easing.

A snapshot of the various top-down impact of the Chinese property cycle on corporate earnings is shown below:

In sum, mapping Goldman’ base case assumptions on GDP growth and property activities for 2022 onto corporate earnings via these channels,the bank lowers its 2022E EPS growth for MSCI China from 13% to 7%, but as the bank warns “the earnings downside (delta) could be much more significant (-28pp) if their bear cases prevail.”

And should more companies warn that “the market is almost frozen” as a result of the Evergrande crisis, the bear case is virtually assured.

We conclude with Goldman’s observations on the contagion risks which according to the bank – and contrary to the market – “are building”, even if systemic risks can still be avoided.

While the restrictive policies have cooled the market, it has put highly-geared developers, notably Evergrande, in the spotlight as their deleveraging path becomes increasingly challenging. On one hand, Goldman agrees with us, and says that on a standalone basis, Evergrande should not be a serious systemic threat given that its total liability of Rmb1.9tn accounts for 0.6% of China’s outstanding TSF, its bank loans of Rmb572bn represent 0.3% of systemwide loan book, and its market share in nationwide commodity housing sales stood at 4% by 1H21. However, the real risks emerges in the context of the slowing property market: indeed, as in other systemic/crisis episodes, investors are concerned about specific weak links which could spread to the broader system via fundamental and financial channels in the case of disorderly default, and therefore the financial condition tightening risk could be much more significant than the Rmb1.9tn liability would suggest, according to Goldman.

How much risk is priced in? This is a popular question from investors but also a difficult one to answer given the fluidity of the situation. However, the following analyses lead Goldman to believe that the market may have priced in some degrees of degradation in macro/corporate fundamentals and possibly policy response from the authorities (i.e. a “muddle-through” scenario), but not a harsh scenario that is systemic and global in nature

  • Episodic analysis: Historical physical property market downturns were short-lived and shallow, but if we focus on episodes where developer equities traded at depressed valuations to proxy for property-related concerns (eg.2H11, early 2015, and late 2018), prevailing NAV discounts of listed developers(-60%) are roughly in-line with those difficult times. At the index level, MSCI China bottomed at around 10-11x fwd P/E and 10% ERP in those periods, vs. 13xand 9% at present respectively.
  • Fair PE targets: The MSCI China index is currently trading on 13x fP/E, having already de-rated from 19.6x at the peak in mid-Feb. Applying Goldman’s three scenarios to its top-down macro PE model, the bank estimates that the index fair PE could fall to 12.5x in the base case, and 11.0x in their most bearish case.
  • Correlation analysis: Intra- and inter-sector, and cross-asset correlations with regard to Chinese stocks or developer equities have all risen in the past weeks, albeit from a low base. However, compared with previous cases where concerns related to China regulations or trade relations had spooked global markets (e.g. 2015 FX reform, 2018 US-China trade war), the absolute correlation levels are more benign at present, suggesting a global contagious impact is not fully priced in.

In light of all this, the good news is that in Goldman’s view systemic risks could still be avoided considering:

  1. broad liquidity and risk-appetite indicators such as 7d repo, the onshore funding stress index, as well as the A-share market performance/ turnover suggest that the imminent “minsky moment” remains a narrative but far from a reality;
  2. the effective leverage (LTV) for the housing market is low, around 40% to 50% per our Banks team’s estimate;
  3. the institutional setup in China where the government has strong control over its banking system makes a market-driven collapse less likely to happen than would otherwise be the case;
  4. Losses will be realized by stakeholders associated with highly-geared developers, but the liabilities are relatively transparent and are less widely socialized in the financial markets than in previous global financial crises;
  5. the potential economic, social, and financial impacts have been well publicized and discussed, and it appears that the authorities are assessing the situation and starting to take actions; and,
  6. economists believe there is potential for the authorities to ease policy to prevent a disorderly default of Evergrande from developing into a crisis leading up to the Sixth Plenum in November.

Ultimately, timing will be key to a happy ending: Given the outsized market value of China property, and its intricate linkages to the real economy and the financial markets, deleveraging the property market and improving financial stability – two contradictory concepts – could raise systemic concern if policy actions are pursued too aggressively, or without clear coordination among regulators and communication with the market.

Importantly, as market concerns over tail risk and spillovers start to build, there is increasing focus on the narrowing window for policymakers to provide the necessary circuit breakers to ring-fence the (collateral) damages and stop the downward spirals.

A key risk from continued delayed action would be a bigger snowball effect and more damage on markets and investor (already strained) confidence in Chinese assets. As such, Goldman expects the market to focus on potential actions that could be pursued, such as a combination of debt restructuring (bank loans, WMP, credits), conditional government involvement in working capital bridges and unfinished property projects, and a coordinated plan to divest and cash in assets.

Finally, as promised earlier, here is a summary of the key loosing (green) and tightening (red) policies in China’s property market.

What a waste of time and energy on this one:

(zerohedge)

In Major Win For China, Huawei CFO Reaches Deal With DOJ To Return Home

 
FRIDAY, SEP 24, 2021 – 10:50 AM

There’s a huge breakthrough in the long-running Huawei saga that was central to the current breakdown and simmering tensions in US-China relations, as it was announced Friday morning that Huawei Technologies Chief Financial Officer Meng Wanzhou will appear virtually in a Brooklyn federal court to resolve the US charges against her

Some of the late breaking details are emerging as follows:

  • Justice Department Reaches Deal With Huawei Executive Faced With Criminal Charges

  • In Deferred Prosecution Agreement Executive Meng Wanzhou Will Admit to Some Wrongdoing in Exchange for Government Eventually Dropping Charges

  • Agreement Offers Meng Wanzhou an Exit From Canada, Where She Has Been Fighting Extradition to U.S.

  • Deal Resolves One Source of Tension Between U.S. and China as Relations Deteriorate

 

Via Reuters

Meng, who has long maintained her innocence, has been held in Vancouver under a loose form of house arrest wherein she’s monitored 24/7 but still free to move about in what’s been dubbed by US media an “opulent detention”, following the December 2018 arrest at Vancouver International Airport which grabbed world headlines and unleashed fury from Beijing. She was alleged to have mislead HSBC about the Chinese multinational tech company’s dealings in Iran.

The expected US federal court appearance was reported widely on Friday based on a source close to the proceedings cited in Reuters and Canada’s The Globe and Mail

Reuters underscores the US court appearance and deal reached with federal prosecutors is expected to end in a softening of the stalemate and tit-for-tat arrests that ensued:

The deferred prosecution agreement would remove one of several major disputes between the world’s two biggest economies. The agreement could also potentially pave the way for the release of the two Canadians held in China, who were arrested shortly after Meng was taken in custody in 2018.

Meanwhile the US Department of Commerce has continued to threaten further crackdown on alleged bad behavior of Chinse telecommunications firms, after it’s long been suspected that state-linked firms are used as ‘Trojan horse’ backdoors to spy on and infiltrate networks and data in the West.

US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo in Thursday statements said further action against Huawei in particular could be taken “if necessary” – after the Biden administration has come under pressure from Republican lawmakers. 

At the same time she expressed a desire on the part of the US to resolve outstanding trade tensions, saying in an interview, “I actually think robust commercial engagement will help to mitigate any potential tensions.”

Huawei Technologies Co’s rotating chairman on Friday had this to say while claiming that US sanctions have caused a $30 billion loss in its handset revenue per year “We’ve been trying to get used to the US sanctions since May 2019,” Eric Xu Zhijun told reporters in Beijing. “Whether the sanctions are going to escalate or not, we are accustomed to working and living with the [US] Entity List.”

end

Credit Suisse Dumped All Evergrande Exposure, Crows That “Risk Procedures Worked”

 
FRIDAY, SEP 24, 2021 – 11:30 AM

Having been thoroughly embarrassed by their failings (and losses) in Archegos and Greensill, we suspect the public relations team at Credit Suisse (CS) were over the moon when they discovered that, not only was CS not exposed to the Evergrande debacle, they had actually sold well ahead of the crisis because “risk procedures worked.”

“Risk procedures actually worked then…[but] it was a warning signal about the kind of deals that were being brought in” by bankers and wealth managers in Asia, people involved told the FT.

Specifically, The FT reports that CS – once the top international underwriter of Evergrande bonds (over the past decade, CS helped arrange $4.6bn of dollar bonds for Evergrande, about 13% of the total) – sold down its entire exposure to the troubled Chinese property developer late last year, according to people familiar with the decision; and has not underwritten any debt for two years after becoming concerned about the developer’s financials.

Credit Suisse reassured investors and asset management clients this week that the bank’s funds held very little Evergrande debt and the overall institution had minimal exposure, having decided to sell down its residual exposures because “it didn’t like what it was seeing”, the people familiar with the matter said.

The red flags were reportedly there for a few years, and The FT reports one incident flagged to senior management was a proposed loan to the company’s chair, Hui Ka Yuan, in late 2018:

Evergrande had recently raised a $1.8bn bond to help pay a special dividend to investors.

Hui, then China’s third-richest man, had to put up $1bn of his own money to support the deal due to lack of demand, the Financial Times reported at the time.

Hui then approached Credit Suisse for a loan that would be used to purchase Evergrande securities, offering the bond as collateral.

When the transaction was submitted for review, risk managers criticised the structure for having characteristics of circular financing, people involved told the FT.

“The transaction was wrong financially and morally,” one of the people said.

“Also, Evergrande had the most fragile financials [among Chinese developers] and was clearly facing a liquidity crunch.”

We suspect a major sigh of relief was felt across the Credit Suisse C-Suite that avoided this landmine, but as The Wall Street Journal reports, Evergrande’s auditor, PricewaterhouseCoopers in Hong Kong, may not escape unharmed from this crisis.

The property developer’s auditor faces growing backlash that it gave the imploding firm a clean bill of health in an annual report issued this spring.

Despite Evergrande’s stock and bond prices plunging as the firm offered deep discounts to keep sales growing during the pandemic (and the government effectively warning that it had borrowed too much), PwC in HK signed off on the company’s 2020 financial statements without including a so-called going concern warning.

WSJ notes that concerns about the company’s financial health may not have been sufficient to trigger a going-concern notice in Evergrande’s 2020 annual report under U.S. and Hong Kong accounting rules.

The bar to issue one of these is high, and there are often bankruptcies or reorganizations that aren’t preceded by a going-concern statement, academics said.

“The auditor is not responsible for predicting future conditions or events,” the regulator says on its website.

It added that the absence of a going-concern warning “should not be viewed as providing assurance as to an entity’s ability to continue as a going concern.”

But in the company’s financial statement for the first six months of this year, Evergrande’s board of directors expressed concerns about the company’s ability to pay its short-term obligations and its ability to continue as a going concern. The report, which was unaudited, was one of the company’s first serious admissions of its financial problems.

So PwC has plenty of cover for its potential lack of diligence, but we suspect, when all is said and done and with Evergrande in default on its offshore bonds, numerous investors will be looking for someone to blame and the auditor may be high on that list.

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

EUROPE
 
Mises comments on Europe’s fragile economy as Merkel exits
(Brendan Brown/Mises)

Europe Faces A Fragile Economy As The Merkel Era Ends

 
FRIDAY, SEP 24, 2021 – 05:00 AM

Authored by Brendan Brown via The Mises Institute,

As Angela Merkel prepares her exit from the chancellery in Berlin, a false alarm is ringing in Europe about an imminent danger of “stagflation.” This phenomenon, like dragons, belongs to mythology rather than real historical or present circumstances. 

The noise will prevent any faint alarm being heard about the true danger of post-Merkel monetary deluge in Europe – a French and Italian debt crisis culminating in euro collapse. 

The stagflation myth originates from the 1970s experience in the US. Data averages collected over the period as a whole (1973–80)—including a virulent monetary inflation and economic boom (1976–78) sandwiched between two recessions featuring energy supply shocks—show high Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation accompanying real economic sluggishness.

Fast-forward to the present: European CPI inflation has been climbing through the year (3 percent year on year in September), albeit staying below US comparisons in part because of a low or zero weight for housing and secondhand cars. Yet real economic performance in Europe has been seriously subpar if we correct for optical illusions related to the end of lockdowns and a receding pandemic.

Now an actual and looming crisis of natural gas supplies in Europe (amid forecasts of Russian supply shortages and domestic production curbed by environmental policy) could mean consumers in some countries facing a doubling of bills and also disruption. Russian president Vladimir Putin, with the Nord Stream 2 pipeline to Germany now complete, could make the crisis much worse for eastern and southern Europe. Some experts suspect Gazprom is already manipulating gas prices.

This gas crisis comes on top of worsening bottleneck problems in the global economy. The whisper number for euro area CPI this winter is around 5 percent year on year. Meanwhile the outlook for economic rebound from the pandemic crisis is souring. Among the large European countries, only Germany this autumn is back to eve-of-pandemic GDP levels.

Even European Central Bank chief Christine Lagarde had to take note of the stagflation alarm in her September 9 news conference, crucially placed ahead of the German general election (September 26). Making a cosmetic concession to the Bundesbank point of view, she announced an insignificant tapering of quantitative easing.

This consummate ex–French politician, acutely sensitive to the importance of the ECB-Berlin axis in sustaining the status quo of the European Monetary Union (EMU), succeeded in removing the euro as a topic of debate between the mainstream parties. Neither EMU nor stagflation alarm (nor President Putin!) featured at all in the final TV debate (September 12) between the three chancellor candidates (for the Christian Democratic Union, Social Democratic Party, and Greens). Lagarde’s recent announcements about a “greening” of the ECB monetary policy framework doubtless pleased the Greens, whom pundits see as a kingmaker in coalition negotiations subsequent to the elections.

If there had been a question on stagflation, the correct answer from any of the candidates would have been that this is not the real danger. 

Stagflation is a misleading term coined back in the 1970s by popular critics of the Arthur F. Burns Fed’s monetary “stimulus,” which was followed in Europe by countries outside the Deutsche mark orbit. These critics in their understandable concerns were too quick to point out a denouement of high inflation and high unemployment without attention to fine but important detail. The high average CPI inflation of 1973–80 turned on the potential of economies to be stimulated by monetary policy into an inflationary boom (1976–78). Notably, France in that decade was in an economic miracle. 

Today by contrast there is widespread economic sclerosis largely resulting from a long monetary inflation which has spurred malinvestment and the advance of monopoly capitalism. Yes, we should be assessing the threat from this long monetary inflation, aggravated to a new pitch during the pandemic by the ECB and condoned crucially by Chancellor Merkel. It is an erroneous diversion, however, to dig up popular but erroneous diagnoses from the 1970s.

The original episode of “stagflation” in the 1970s started with the Middle East Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries embargo and related quadrupling of the oil price in the immediate aftermath of the Yom Kippur War (autumn 1973). CPI inflation accelerated in the aftermath of this episode despite a gathering economic downturn. In fact, monetary inflation at that time was already turning to monetary disinflation, with the Burns Fed having imposed a monetary squeeze in summer 1973. 

A jump in consumer prices due to supply disruption is no symptom of monetary inflation and would occur under a sound money regime. But once the disruption is resolved consumer prices should fall back. Instead, the Burns Fed stepped on the monetary inflation accelerator. Strong symptoms of goods and asset inflation emerged through 1976–78 amidst a powerful US and global economic boom. Then, as monetary policy started to tighten, the eruption of the Iranian Revolution brought a new oil supply shock, causing prices to spiral upward just as the economy was slowing.

Fast-forward to the alarms now ringing about stagflation in 2021.

In Europe as in the US much of the spike in CPI inflation this year has been driven by “dislocations on the supply side,” the notorious bottlenecks which are the essence of central bank speak that inflation is transitory. In turn these have contributed to enforced cutbacks in production. Uncertainties as to the waiting time for deliveries alongside a squeeze on real incomes are weighing on demand.

Protestations of concern by the Fed and foreign central banks about supply disruptions (and the notorious transitory inflation due to bottleneck problems) beg the issue of responsibility here. Massive monetary “stimulus” contributed to a huge lopsided surge in demand for consumer durables while inflating the digitalization boom driven by stay-at-home needs during the pandemic.

We should view the supply disruptions and the resource costs of clearing the backlogs ultimately as belonging to the subject of malinvestment as induced by monetary inflation. Overconsumption and malinvestment lie behind these bottlenecks, and their sequel could well add to recessionary tendencies. That is all par for the monetary course.

The present run-up of CPI inflation in Europe, exacerbated most likely by the further surges in the natural gas price (this in contrast to the bottlenecks could be a genuine supply shock), is unlikely to mutate directly into the sustained high-CPI inflation characteristic of the 1970s. The real danger of a sustained leap in euro area goods and services inflation lies elsewhere—in the rise and fall of asset inflation, the defining characteristic of monetary inflation in Europe during the Merkel era.

When global asset inflation turns to deflation there is a high probability that debts of the French and Italian governments and the banking systems in those two countries will come into the storm center of crisis. French banks have now notorious exposure to potential “bubble areas,” including Chinese loans, built up during long-run European and US monetary inflation. French government finances are now as weak as Italian ones on the eve of the pandemic. The cancellation of Australia’s megaorder for French submarines last week amid a larger existential crisis for the French military sector highlights weaknesses in French credit.

Perhaps the three-party coalition government to emerge from the German elections will indeed work closely with Paris and say yes to a European banking union and unlimited bailouts via the ECB. That Chinese-type solution to Europe’s debt woes—severe monetary repression in an effectively state banking system—would drive capital flight from Europe on a scale not seen in China, with its inconvertible currency shielded by myriad of exchange restrictions. A euro collapse, rather than gas prices and bottlenecks, is the most likely source of sustained high CPI inflation in Europe following the Merkel era.

 
end
 
 

UK/SUPPLY PROBLEMS/GOODS SHORTAGE

Shelves are empty at the supermarkets so UK officials are telling people to stop panic buying  (hoarding) ahead of a winter of discontent.

(zerohedge)

UK Tells People To Stop “Panic Buying” As “Winter Of Discontent” Fears Emerge

 
FRIDAY, SEP 24, 2021 – 04:15 AM

UK politicians are in utter panic as similarities to the 1970s-style “winter of discontent” of shortages and socio-economic distress could rear its ugly head in the coming months, according to Reuters

A significant driver in what could very well be a hellacious winter for Brits is soaring natural gas and electricity prices that have already disrupted segments of the UK economy and sent shockwaves through energy markets, chemical producers, and the food industry, among others. Compound this all with labor shortages thanks to Brexit, and the dire situation may worsen. 

Some Brits who remember the past worry a winter of discontent could be imminent. Many are facing extraordinary high power bills and sharp food inflation that are eating away at wages, along with shortages of goods at supermarkets. 

The primary driver of this chaos is soaring natural gas prices due to declines in Russian flows to Europe, along with a drop in renewable power output. The soaring cost of natgas has pressured chemical firms that use the gas in production to limit or halt operations. One such industry is fertilizer that is a byproduct of natgas. From there, the decline of fertilizer has affected CO2 production, which heavily impacts food supply chains. 

People are paying attention to the developments of the energy crisis and its immediate ripple effect across the economy and are taking no chances of being left without food. Many are panic buying food as government officials try to calm everyone down, reassuring everyone the winter of discontent is not upon them. 

“There is no need for people to go out and panic buy,” Small Business Minister Paul Scully told Times Radio.

With low CO2 levels, Britain’s food industry has been disrupted but received emergency support from the government this week to reopen at least one chemical plant to make the gas critical for slaughterhouses to food packaging to the beverage industry. 

Already, shelves in some supermarkets are cleared out as people are taking no chance.  

“Look, this isn’t a 1970s thing at all,” Scully said when asked if Britain was heading back into a winter of discontent – a reference to the 1978-79 winter when inflation and industrial action left the economy in chaos.

Compounding the issues for the food industry has been the shortage of truck drivers that have led to additional supply chain disruptions. 

A Tesco spokesperson said the supermarket chain is experiencing a shortage of truck drivers, leading to “some distribution challenges.”

Another supermarket chain, Sainsbury’s, has said, “availability in some product categories may vary but alternatives are available.”

As for the energy crisis, the government has capped power prices for households which means energy retailers are becoming unprofitable and smaller ones are failing left and right. So far, seven energy retailers have gone bankrupt, affecting more than 1.5 million households

If hyperinflation of natural gas and power prices and soaring food prices and shortages of goods aren’t similar to the winter of discontent that took place decades ago, then we don’t know what is… 

What this may cause is turmoil on the streets if the crisis worsens.

END

EU/COVID/VACCINE

Now they decide to wait because of a shortage of safety data?

(zerohedge)

EU Will Wait To Decide On Pfizer Boosters Due To Shortage Of Safety Data

 
FRIDAY, SEP 24, 2021 – 05:45 AM

In keeping with their more cautious approach toward approving COVID jabs, EU regulators are preparing to make their own decisions about whether to approve booster shots with Pfizer jabs – but not until early October, Reuters reported Thursday.

Reuters pointed out that the upcoming review of the Pfizer booster jab would mark the European regulators’ first decision about doling out booster jabs in the EU.

In an opinion issued earlier this month that was republished by the EMA, the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control – or ECDC, one of several regulators that comprises the EU’s highest-level of health regulators – said there was no “urgent need” to administer booster doses to fully vaccinated individuals in the general population.

But it also noted that additional doses are already being considered and doled out to the elderly, the immuno-compromised, and whatever

Regardless of whatever the bloc decides, it has already signed recent deals with Pfizer and BioNTech for 2.4 billion more mRNA jabs.

The latest contract covers the supply of at least 900MM shots, which will only be needed if the EU goes ahead with expansive booster jab program and offers them to all adults 16 and up. . Over 70% of the EU’s adult population has already been fully vaccinated, and the bloc has secured an ample supply of vaccines from several manufacturers.

Still, as the delta wave continues to create problems for politicians around the world, they might grow increasingly desperate to force the population to get 3, 4 or even 5 jabs – despite the fact that The ECDC has said crucial data on the need and safety of boosters hasn’t yet been gleaned from the studies unfurling around the world rfhr n in part because it is not yet fully clear how long vaccines protect against the virus.

UK/COVID

probably correct if they do not vaccinate any more:  COVID will become the common cold by next spring.

(zerohedge)

UK Scientists Think COVID Will Likely Resemble “Common Cold” By Next Spring

 
FRIDAY, SEP 24, 2021 – 07:00 AM

At this point in the pandemic, most readers have probably heard that COVID will likely remain endemic in the human population, like the cold or the flu.

And as we prepare for the second flu season (in the northern hemisphere, at least), more scientists (and, increasingly, politicians) are realizing that they’re going to need to embrace a change in messaging – messaging that, at one time, might have left them vulnerable to accusations of being an “anti-vaxxer”.

We’re of course referring to the notion that COVID will stick around and become a regular illness, like the flu or the common cold.

Australia has finally acknowledged that its government’s commitment to “ZeroCOVID” simply didn’t make sense, and abandoned it. In the US, the vast majority of people who haven’t been vaccinated probably wouldn’t get the jab if you offered to pay them (which, incidentally, New York City and several other states and cities have tried to do).

Fortunately, as humanity’s resistance to the virus grows, the danger that COVID poses should continue to wane. A pair of scientists discussed this phenomenon in a recent story with Sky News. Both suggested that, by Springtime, COVID could be like a “cold or mild flu” for most people.

hared a slightly more optimistic take, claiming COVID will become like the common cold by next Spring.

Professor Sir John Bell, religious professor of medicine at Oxford University, said the virus could resemble the common cold by spring next year as people’s immunity to the virus is boosted by both vaccines AND natural exposure.

He added the country “is over the worst” and things “should be fine” once winter has passed, adding that there was continued exposure to the virus even in people who are vaccinated.

Bell’s comments followed a similar remark from Professor Dame Sarah Gilbert, one of the UK’s most high-profile figures who helped develop the Astra-Zeneca jab. Gilbert said a few days ago that there’s evidence that the population is developing greater immunity levels as time goes on and more are infected and vaccinated. She also played down fears about another new hyper-virulent variant.

Asked about Gilbert’s comment, John said: “If you look at the trajectory we’re on, we’re a lot better off than we were six months ago.”

At the very least, the pressure on the yuan will abate.

“So the pressure on the NHS is largely abated. If you look at the deaths from COVID, they tend to be very elderly people, and it’s not entirely clear it was COVID that caused all those deaths.

“So I think we’re over the worst of it now and I think what will happen is, there will be quite a lot of background exposure to Delta,” he added, saying the case numbers are quite high but those who have had two vaccines and are infected will still lead to stronger herd immunity”.

Speaking at a Royal Society of Medicine webinar on Wednesday, Dame Gilbert said the most sensible scenario for COVID is that it will mutate to become less deadly for humans, making it more like the flu or cold, possibly by next year.

“We normally see that viruses become less virulent as they circulate more easily and there is no reason to think we will have a more virulent version of Sars-CoV-2,” Dame Sarah said.

“It’s just a question of how long it’s going to take to get there and what measures we’re going to have to take to manage it in the meantime.”

In both cases, their remarks were a reactions a statement from England’s chief medical officer Professor Chris Whitty, who said this week that all children who had not been vaccinated would likely end up getting COVID. Most available data would suggest this is unlikely.

LA PALMA/VOLCANO//UPDATES

LAST NIGHT!!

La Palma

 
 
 
 
There were more explosions today which suggests that it is building up. We simply need o watch this to see if this is beyond a local threat. It is clear that the threat locally is growing.

 

https://youtu.be/Gu65VRC3b7c

Cheers
Robert

 
 
 
 
 
Attachments area
 
Preview YouTube video DIRECTO🔴 Continúa En Erupción el Volcán de La Palma que sigue avanzando hacia el Mar, Islas Canarias

 

 
 
 
There are eruptions now from 9 vents. The more vents the greater chance for fallout. This is while the main eruption grows in size. This suggests there is much pressure that is building and it is wider in size than we know

 

https://youtu.be/0DbYJIC8OWc

Cheers
Robert

 
 
 
 
 
Attachments area
 
Preview YouTube video Último hora! canal 24 horas del volcán de La Palma

 

END
 
THISMORNING
 
 
 
 
 
17 seconds between shock waves
It is getting worse

 

https://youtu.be/0DbYJIC8OWc

 
 
 
Attachments area
 
Preview YouTube video Último hora! canal 24 horas del volcán de la isla de La Palma

 

END
 

More on La Palma

Robert to me: this afternoon!
 
 
 
I will send more later .. listen to the explosions.. locally this will be a disaster as they have waited too long to evacuate

 

https://youtu.be/evw_wqdVjKM

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Attachments area
 
Preview YouTube video Canary Boom 24.09.2021

 

 
 
 
 
end
LATE AFTERNOON:

Volcanic eruption disrupts normal life in Spain | Climate Crisis | Latest News – YouTube

Inbox
 
 
 
 

Robert Hryniak

4:04 PM (6 minutes ago)
 
to
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Attachments area
 
Preview YouTube video Potentes explosiones desde volcán de La Palma, España
 
 
 

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

IRAN//ISRAEL/USA

none today

 

end.

6.Global Issues

CORONAVIRUS UPDATE

Former acute care manager in Alberta speaks out against vaccine passports, pandemic response

https://rumble.com/vmuf4r-icu-manager-in-alberta-speaks-out-against-vaccine-passports-pandemic-respon.html

Today’s episode of The Gunn Show is so important that we have made it available for free to everyone.
The Gunn Show is normally only available to subscribers to www.RebelNewsPlus.com.
READ MORE ABOUT THIS EPISODE OF THE GUNN SHOW: https://rebelne.ws/3hXhEDi

END

there is a huge shortage of hospital workers.  These people will have jobs in other jurisdctions.

(Phillips/EpochTimes)

North Carolina Hospital System Suspends Hundreds Of Employees After COVID-19 Vaccine Mandate

 
THURSDAY, SEP 23, 2021 – 06:20 PM

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times,

North Carolina health care system said it suspended hundreds of its employees after the firm implemented a COVID-19 vaccine mandate, adding that workers who refuse to get vaccinated after five days will be fired.

“Beginning this week, approximately 375 team members—across 15 hospitals, 800 clinics and hundreds of outpatient facilities—have been confirmed to be non-compliant and are not able to report to work,” stated a press release from Novant Health, which is based in North Carolina but operates in other states.

“They will have an opportunity to comply over a five day, unpaid suspension period,” the release said.

“If a team member remains non-compliant after this suspension period, he or she will have their employment with Novant Health terminated.”

The firm then claimed that about 98.5 percent of its workforce are compliant with the policy, meaning they have received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine. Workers who started a two-dose vaccine series have until Oct. 15 to get the second shot, Novant said.

Employees who have an exemption are required to get weekly COVID-19 testing, as well as wear N95 masks and eye protection, it added.

In a similar move, 125 workers with Indiana University Health, the biggest hospital system in the state, parted ways with the company, according to a news release issued last week. Those workers, it said, did not comply with the firm’s vaccine mandate.

“Indiana University Health has put the safety and well-being of patients and team members first by requiring employees to be fully vaccinated against COVID-19 by Sept. 1,” the company said in a Sept. 16 statement. “After a two-week unpaid suspension period ending Sept. 14, a total of 125 employees, the equivalent of 61 full-time employees, chose not to receive the COVID-19 vaccine and have left the organization.”

It comes as President Joe Biden on Sept. 9 announced he would direct the Occupational Safety and Health Administration to penalize companies with 100 or more employees if they do not comply with his administration’s COVID-19 vaccine mandate. Under the mandate, details of which have not been released, private-sector workers would have to either get the COVID-19 vaccine or submit to weekly testing.

The president also said he would mandate that all health care workers who are employed at facilities that receive Medicaid or Medicare funding get vaccinated.

Republican leaders, as well as some union bosses, have criticized Biden for the announcement and said it’s tantamount to federal overreach. Some governors and state attorneys general have threatened to file lawsuits against the mandate.

What happened to “heroes!”?

END

Wrong decision:  CDC director overrules science advisory panel and backs the killer booster shots for high risk workers. Wait until they define jobs at risk!!

(zerohedge)

CDC Director Overrules Science Advisory Panel, Backs Boosters For ‘High-Risk’ Workers

 
FRIDAY, SEP 24, 2021 – 08:12 AM

In line with the recommendations made by the scientist-based CDC advisory panel (ACIP) earlier on Thursday, the CDC endorsed COVID vaccine booster shots for Americans 65 and older, residents of nursing homes, and adults aged 18 to 64 with underlying health conditions.

But that didn’t go far enough apparently for the far more politically-controlled CDC itself as late last night CDC director Rochelle Walensky went beyond ACIP’s recommendation by urging boosters for individuals allegedly at high risk because of their jobs – which was left entirely undefined (we look forward to the union in-fighting over which jobs are ‘at-risk’).

Notably, the CDC advisory panel, made up of independent medical experts, broke with the FDA on that recommendation in a split decision on Thursday.

The panel specifically said it was concerned the move could send mixed messages about the vaccines, which are incredibly effective at preventing severe illness.

But, hours after the panel voted 9-6 not to recommend boosters for those groups, Walensky overruled them.

“As CDC Director, it is my job to recognize where our actions can have the greatest impact,” Walensky said in a statement late Thursday, according to The Associated Press.

At CDC, we are tasked with analyzing complex, often imperfect data to make concrete recommendations that optimize health.

Walensky noted her recommendation aligned with the Food and Drug Administration, which recommended on Wednesday that adults “in an occupational or institutional setting” that increases their risk of getting COVID-19 also be eligible for the shot.

“In a pandemic, even with uncertainty, we must take actions that we anticipate will do the greatest good,” she said in a statement.

Of course, given the undefined nature of ‘high risk’ employment, this action by Walensky opens the door – just as ACIP warned – for everyone to argue they deserve a 3rd (4th or 5th…) booster shot and further kicks the door open to enabling the ‘annual COVID shot’ that big phrama CEOS (most recently Moderna’s CEO) have suggested.

So, did ‘politics’ just over-rule ‘science’?

end

Robert H to us:

COVID antibodies in up to 40% of US deer population

 
 
 
 
If a an animal can develop antibodies; then why cannot humans? It is not like Coronavirus is a new phenomenon as many forms have existed from the flu to the common cold which are all of the same family.
No virus that jumps from humans to animals and back again is controllable by any vaccination, because it will be a variant. Natural immunity is a natural phenomenon that has been with humanity since the beginning of  our existence.
This hysteria over the virus is beyond anything i have ever seen anywhere in my travels. One day, i fear future society will look back at these times and actions being taken which will be seen as a crazy time in history where the public was been let down by the very people who should had known better. When we watch the break down of countries like Australia into tyranny we cannot help but ponder what evil creates such injustice to the public and ruin of nations and culture. Surely, this cannot be seen as a concern about public health.
Our entire way of life is breaking down as supply chains collapse around us. And these dreams that yesterday will return us to a old normal is simply a fallacy. There is no way that the disruptions evident and those not yet occasioned will avoided. We have yet to see the shortages that loom on the horizon. Whether it be a shortage of truck drivers in England causing gas stations to ration petrol to car parts from China that no longer arrive. Many supply chains will have to be rethought and actual performance of activities will be harder than before in ways not imagined.
These will be the new normal times as society rebuilds and frankly no one is prepared for this as building anew is a hard road to travel. The real question is how far will we fall before a rebuilding takes place by who and with what capital.

 

https://nypost.com/2021/08/04/covid-antibodies-in-up-to-40-of-us-deer-population/

GLOBAL ISSUES
 
 
END
 
Michael Every on the most important stories of the day.
Michael Every…

Rabobank: Yesterday’s “Reflation!” Trade Appears To Be Old-Fashioned Glue-Sniffing

 
FRIDAY, SEP 24, 2021 – 09:07 AM

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Re: Reflation

As we all know, markets can remain irrational longer than you can stay solvent, and they are encouraged to do so when monetary and fiscal authorities encourage them to sniff solvent. However, yesterday’s “reflation!” trade appears to be old-fashioned glue-sniffing without any help from the central banks or governments. A 13bp leap in US 10-year yields, with a steepening curve, a surge in US stocks, and a dumping of both the US dollar and gold all coincided with the following monetary backdrop:

The Fed saying it will be taking away $20bn in QE in tranches by Xmas, and likely hiking 25bp in 2022, before doing 75bp a year from 2023 onwards; the BOE “opening the door” (says Bloomberg) to a rate hike as soon as November – see here from Stefan Koopman; Norway hiking 25bp, the first in the G10 to do so “post”-Covid; the RBNZ suggesting they will follow suite next month; and Reuters quoting 8 ECB governing council members who all appear to be hawkish. Only the PBOC was playing the usual game this week in terms of net liquidity injections.

And it was doing that because in the actual economy / fiscal backdrop, the Wall Street Journal reports local governments have been told to prepare for Evergrande to fail. This is taken as bullish by some because it means China is being proactive: then again, so is the firm being “saved” by being broken into three and nationalised, another story doing the rounds, which implies losses for bond and equity holders, and a new economic model. Chinese local governments actually rely on land sales to the likes of Evergrande for 30-40% of their income, so who is going to step in to stop them failing? We know the assumed answer, but do we know the unassumed impact on the exchange rate? It isn’t reflationary – at least outside of China.

Likewise, on reflation and failing, in the US there appears no sign of the Democrats being able to find a majority to pass either a stop-gap spending bill, or an increase in the debt ceiling, or the infrastructure bill, or the $3.5 trillion stimulus bill. Indeed, a headline says the US is preparing for a government shutdown. We are used to shutdowns now, but that does not smell reflationary.

In the UK, the government is to cut GBP20 a week from the pockets of the very poorest, who are guaranteed to spend, not save it, and hike taxes on everyone else, just as energy prices surge, and shelves threaten to empty of products, including staple foods. The same energy and supply-chain backdrop threatens the EU too; and the US, where we not only have a record 73-ship backlog in LA/LB ports, but the Biden administration is threatening to use the Cold War Defence Act to force firms to release information on their holdings of semiconductors. The aim is to prevent hoarding – but what happens when each firm says “None; none; none; none; none”?

This move potentially opens the door for the US to use the same Act to force production home by fiat, upending global trade patterns and shipping – and markets. But will it really be that radical on the current track record? And would that make any difference in the near term anyway given new chip fabs are already breaking ground, but will take years to come on line? It’s everything else, from widgets to thingamajigs that the US needs. As does everyone else, of course.

On balance, perhaps it is the central banks and governments / politicians who have their heads in a plastic bag. Not only in thinking now is the time to tighten fiscal and monetary policy, but in their studied inability to understand that the supply-chain issue is the real underlying problem.

Looser fiscal policy won’t help unless it is aimed at resolving supply-chain snarls, which is a geoeconomic and geopolitical issue; but tighter fiscal policy also won’t help, while making socioeconomic matters far worse.

Likewise, hike rates all you want and it won’t help supply-chains, but it will break lots of other things; but loose monetary policy won’t help either unless it is supporting governments in building more resilient, distributed, and localized supply chains.

For all the talk of the new understanding of “fiscal and monetary fusion”, and “Build Back Better”, there is still no sign apparatchiks in central banks or treasury departments / finance ministries understand this fact. They remain collectively irrational long enough for everyone else to become insolvent.

There is also a strong odor of adhesive from some banks, as Bloomberg Daybreak says “Therapy, Puppies Ease Bankers Back to the Office”. Therapy – for going back to the office? Puppies?! Lovely – until they grow into big dogs. “Yeah, I will have that price for you in a second…down, Spot!…I am just getting it now…Spot! Down! No, I don’t mean spot is down, sorry. I mean….Spot! Stop biting the other trader!” Or are the puppies abandoned as soon as they are no longer useful – and who cleans up their mess? Which are two questions one also wants to ask when, just as predicted earlier this week, Bloomberg says a certain large US financial firm “Targets China Tech Billions” in a new ETF.

Meanwhile, nobody seems to hold any Evergrande foreign debt that may now be defaulting after missing a coupon payment yesterday, and starting a 30-day grace period countdown. Nobody. The firm clearly sold all those bonds to itself. And Chinese junk-rated dollar bond issuers were already back in the market yesterday as the “Evergrande to fail” headline hit: even junk-rated property developers. All “Reflation!”, and no “Re: reflation…

Then again, in the face of a global pandemic and a socioeconomic body-blow, the US saw household net wealth increase $5,849bn in Q2 alone. Almost six trillion dollars. In three months. When supply chains were collapsing and the labor market wasn’t doing that much laboring. It takes a LOT of glue to hold that kind of number together, trust me.

Oh, just give me the puppy and be done with it. You can clean up your own mess when the time comes.

Happy Friday.

 

end 

7. OIL ISSUES

The energy crisis starting from Europe will go global

(Irina Slav/OilPrice.com)

The European Energy Crisis Is About To Go Global

 
FRIDAY, SEP 24, 2021 – 02:00 AM

Authored by Irina Slav via OilPrice.com,

It was only a matter of time, really. In a globalized world, energy crunches can hardly remain regionally contained for very long, especially in a context of damaged supply chains and a rush to cut investment in fossil fuels. The energy crunch that began in Europe earlier this month may now be on its way to America. For now, all is well with one of the world’s top gas producers. U.S. gas exporters have enjoyed a solid increase in demand from Asia and Europe as the recovery in economic activity pushed demand for electricity higher. According to a recent Financial Times report, there is a veritable bidding war for U.S. cargos of liquefied natural gas between Asian and European buyers—and the Asians are winning.

Coal exports are on the rise, too, and have been for a while now, especially after a political spat had China shun Australian coal. But supply is tightening, Argus reported earlier this month. In July, according to the report, U.S. coking coal exports dropped by as much as 20.3 percent from June. The report noted supply was constrained by producers’ limited access to funding and a labor shortage that has plagued many industries amid the pandemic.

All this should be good news for U.S. producers of fossil fuels. But it may easily become bad news as winter approaches. The Wall Street Journal’s Jinjoo Lee wrote earlier this week high energy prices could be the next hot import for the United States. Lee cited data showing gas inventory replenishment was running below average rates for this season, and gas in storage in early September was 7.4 percent below the five-year average.

Coal inventories are also running low because of stronger exports, with prices for thermal coal three times higher than they were a year ago. According to calculations from the Energy Information Administration cited in the WSJ report, coal inventories in the United States could fall to less than half last year’s inventory levels by the end of the year. Last year, energy demand was depressed because of the pandemic. This year, the U.S. economy is firing on all cylinders once again. 

No wonder electricity prices are already going up.

In a way, the events in Europe could be seen as a trailer of what might happen in the United States. It is a trailer because it shows all the worst bits. The United States is much more energy independent than, say, the UK, and that’s a big plus. Yet exports bring in revenues, and it would require government intervention to make gas producers cut exports.

In an alarming move, such intervention was requested last week by a manufacturing industry group. Industrial Energy Consumers of America, an organization representing companies producing chemicals, food, and materials, asked the Department of Energy to institute limits on the exports of liquefied natural gas in order to avoid soaring prices and gas shortages during the winter, Reuters reported on Friday.

Opinions seem to differ on whether rising LNG exports are in fact hurting U.S. consumers. But the fact is that gas prices are already double what they were a year ago. According to the IECA, they are not, however, high enough to motivate a ramp-up in natural gas production. Therefore, in order to stockpile enough gas for the winter, the U.S. government must force a reduction in exports.

The LNG industry is, of course, against this. The executive director of Center for Liquefied Natural Gas told Reuters most LNG exports are shipped under long-term fixed-price contracts that have no relation to benchmark gas prices and their movements. Yet some cargos are sold on the spot market.

“Buyers of LNG who compete for natural gas with U.S. consumers are state-owned enterprises and foreign government-controlled utilities with automatic cost pass through,” Paul Cicio, president of IECA, said, as quoted by Reuters. “U.S. manufacturers cannot compete with them on prices.”

Traders are already getting jittery, and this will likely contribute to price uncertainty; regardless of how the fundamentals situation develops. Again, Europe is at the heart of the uncertainty – or rather the certainty that prices have higher to climb. But now, China has added to concern about gas supply and the potential for shortages.

For now, China’s biggest problem seems to be coal rather than gas. A recent Bloomberg report said that China coal power plant operators are struggling to buy enough coal to keep their plants running, and some are being forced to shut down their boilers because of insufficient coal supply. This, however, might lead to stronger gas demand to ensure enough electricity and heating for the winter. This will further exacerbate the difference between global demand and supply.

The European energy crunch is spilling over into other regions. The blame game has begun with culprits ranging from years of underinvestment in local gas production to a Gazprom scheme to get Nord Stream 2 approved by Germany. For now, it is still unclear how much of the price surge is due to a gap between demand and supply and how much of it is due to market nervousness, at least according to RBC commodity strategist Christopher Louney, as quoted by the WSJ’s Lee. This question is less important than another, however, and it is a scary one:

Just how bad could things get this winter?

end

8 EMERGING MARKET& AUSTRALIA ISSUES

Australia////  NEW ZEALAND//COVID/VACCINES

Australian government shuts down Melbourne construction sites amid huge protests over vaccine mandates

Goodman/Construction Dive

Australian Government Shuts Down Melbourne Construction Sites Amid Protests Over Vaccine Mandates

BY TYLER DURDEN
THURSDAY, SEP 23, 2021 – 09:00 PM

By Jennifer Goodman of Construction Dive,

Construction sites in and around Melbourne, Australia, have been shut down for two weeks after hundreds of construction workers and other protestors gathered Monday at the site of a union building, throwing bottles and damaging equipment.

They were protesting the Victorian government’s COVID-19 vaccine mandate for construction workers that begins Thursday.

Riot police used rubber bullets and pepper spray to disperse crowds, the BBC reported, and the headquarters building for the Construction, Forestry, Maritime, Mining and Energy Union was damaged. Several people were arrested.

The union released a statement saying it condemned the protests and the “mindless acts of violence” perpetrated by members of the crowd. The statement said that many protesters were not construction workers but members of neo-Nazi and other right-wing extremist groups.

“It is clear that a minority of those who participated were actual union members,” it said.

Protests continued on Tuesday in Melbourne, with the crowd growing into the thousands and encompassing anti-vaccine activists and other types of workers. 

Up to 2,000 protesters descended into the city’s central business district, according to The New York Times, which also reported that protesters threw bottles at the police and set off flares, while officers in riot gear fired rubber bullets and used pepper spray.

Worker protests began last week when “tea rooms” where tradespeople congregate during breaks were shut down amid the rising delta surge and the government banned workers from consuming food or drink indoors. That prompted construction workers to take their lunch breaks outside in protest.

They set up tables and plastic chairs in multiple intersections in central Melbourne, blocking roads and holding up traffic, according to NPR.

Public health measures

Following the protests, construction and state officials announced that jobsites in Melbourne and other areas in the region will be closed for at least two weeks beginning Tuesday. It cited Monday’s unrest and the increase in COVID-19 cases in the building and construction industry as the reasons.

Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews said that multiple outbreaks — as high as 13% of all cases, according to local media reports — have been linked to construction sites.

Construction has been among the few industries that have largely stayed open throughout the pandemic in Victoria.

“Construction workers are a mobile workforce who may work across multiple sites and travel longer distances to work than other permitted workers,” Andrews said in a statement. “Concerns have also been raised, and remain, about the sector’s compliance with public health measures and directions.”

Minister for Industrial Relations Tim Pallas was even more forceful, saying that his office has seen widespread non-compliance across the industry.

“We’ve been clear: if you don’t follow the rules, we won’t hesitate to take action,” he said in the statement.

Workers will be required to show proof of at least one vaccine dose when sites reopen on Oct. 5, he added.

END’

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/coronavirus/melbourne-will-overtake-buenos-aires-as-most-locked-down-city-in-world-on-october-4/news-story/79e9e7c899a93f6dd5627f21ae7845f8

Melbourne to overtake Buenos Aires as world’s most locked-down city on October 4

As cases climb and restrictions keep dragging on, Melbourne will officially become the world’s most locked-down city on October 4.

 

Melbourne is today in its 235th day of shutdown since the pandemic began – officially making it the city to have endured the world’s longest lockdown. If the
 

Melbourne is now guaranteed to become the most locked-down city in the world by a long margin, with stay-at-home orders extended for at least another month.

If lockdown ends as planned on October 26, Melbourne will have spent 267 days in hard lockdown since March last year – a total of nearly 9 months.

It will beat the next most locked-down city in the world, Buenos Aires, by 22 days.

The Herald Sun previously reported that Buenos Aires had been locked down for 234 days.

However, the city was plunged back into lockdown for a total of 11 days in recent months, taking its total to 245 days.

Melbourne will surpass the Argentinian city’s record as the world’s most locked-down city on Monday, October 4.

Stay-at-home orders have been extended in Melbourne for at least another month. Picture: Andrew Henshaw
Stay-at-home orders have been extended in Melbourne for at least another month. Picture: Andrew Henshaw

WORLD’S LONGEST LOCKDOWNS

Buenos Aires: 245

Dublin: 227

London: 207

Prague: 201

Edinburgh: 195

Athens: 177

Dhaka: 169

 

 
 

The number of days each city has spent in lockdown around the world is hard to monitor as each city has different definitions of stay-at-home orders, however, the numbers are based on the best available data.

While Buenos Aires last year endured 234 straight days of lockdown, from March until November, Melbourne has one of the highest numbers of individual lockdowns in the world.

The current lockdown will have lasted 82 days – just shy of three months – if it ends on time, compared to 111 days in Melbourne’s second lockdown last year.

Behind Buenos Aires are Dublin at 227 days in lockdown and London at 207.

Melbourne joined cities including Paris to impose a curfew. Picture: Josie Hayden
Melbourne joined cities including Paris to impose a curfew. Picture: Josie Hayden

London marked “freedom day” on July 19, with a near-complete reopening of businesses at full capacity.

At the time, 68 per cent of Britons had received two vaccination doses.

Melbourne’s lockdown has been among the strictest in the world, joining cities including Paris to impose a curfew.

It contributed to the city sliding six places to eighth in the list of the world’s most liveable cities this year.

 
 

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings FRIDAY  morning 7:30 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1719 DOWN .0021 /EUROPE BOURSES /ALL RED

USA/ YEN 110.52  UP  0.189 /NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.3675  DOWN   0.0045  

 

USA/CAN 1.2707  UP .0045  (  CDN DOLLAR DOWN 45 BASIS PTS )

 

Early FRIDAY morning in Europe, the Euro IS DOWN BY 21 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.1719 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 29.15 POINTS OR .80% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 318.82 PTS OR 1.30% 

 

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.42% // EUROPEAN BOURSES OPENED ALL RED

 

Trading from Europe and ASIA

EUROPEAN BOURSES CLOSED ALL RED

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG  CLOSED DOWN 318.82 PTS OR 1.30% 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 29.15 POINTS OR .80% 

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.42%

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 609.41 PTS OR 2.06% 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1749.35

silver:$22.53-

Early FRIDAY morning USA 10 year bond yr: 1.423% !!! DOWN 1 IN POINTS from THURSDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

The 30 yr bond yield 1.933 DOWN 1  IN BASIS POINTS from THURSDAY night.

USA dollar index early FRIDAY morning: 93.32 DOWN 14  CENT(S) from THURSDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers FRIDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now your closing  FRIDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.32%  UP 4  in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.055% UP 19/10   BASIS POINT from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.41%//  UP 4  in basis points yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:  0.79  UP 9   points in basis points yield from yesterday./

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 38 points higher than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES TO –.225% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 0.99% AND NOW ABOVE   THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR  FRIDAY

Closing currency crosses for FRIDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1714  DOWN    0.0026 or 26 basis points

USA/Japan: 110.72  UP .380 OR YEN DOWN 38  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3680 DOWN .0041// DOWN 41   BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN  11 basis points to 1.2673

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The USA/Yuan,  CNY: closed    ON SHORE  (CLOSED DOWN).. 6.4667 

 

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)..6.4625

TURKISH LIRA:  8.86  EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.055%

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 2 IN basis points from THURSDAY at 1.451 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 1.979 UP 3 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 93.33 UP 13  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for FRIDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 26.87 PTS OR 0.38% 

 

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 112.22 PTS OR 0.72% 

 

Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 63.52  PTS OR  0.95% 

 

Spain IBEX CLOSED  DOWN 3.80  PTS OR  0.04%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 112.29 PTS OR 0.43% 

 

WTI Oil price; 73.76 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 77.85 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE RISES:    72.77  THE CROSS LOWER BY 0.04 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE HIGHER BY 4 BASIS PTS)

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES  TO –.225 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM : 73.96//

BRENT :  78.01

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 1.460.. UP 3 basis points…

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 1.989  UP 4  basis points..

EURO/USA 1.1717 DOWN 0.0024   ( 24 BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:110.76 UP .437 ( YEN DOWN 44 BASIS POINTS/..

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 93.32  UP 14  cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA: 1.3630 DOWN .0050  

the Turkish lira close: 8.88  DOWN 11 BASIS PTS//EXTREMELY DEADLY

the Russian rouble 72,72  UP .09  Roubles against the uSA dollar. (UP 9 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.2660 UP 3 BASIS pts

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.225%

The Dow closed UP 33.18 POINTS OR 0.10%

NASDAQ closed DOWN 4.04 POINTS OR 0.03%

VOLATILITY INDEX:  17.83 CLOSED DOWN 0.80

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 0.132

%//libor dropping like a stone

USA trading day in Graph Form

Stocks Shrug As Taper Tantrum Sparks Bond Bloodbath; Beijing Batters Bitcoin

 
 
FRIDAY, SEP 24, 2021 – 04:01 PM

US equity markets rebounded from Monday’s pukefest on Evergrande fears (which actually came to be realized as the giant property developer did indeed default on its foreign dollar bonds). But then headlines about SOEs preparing for collapse and the payment of a local yuan bond’s coupon seemed to spark exuberance. A brief taper tantrum ensued in equities after the FOMC statement, which ignited momentum higher and shorts were squeezed as rates spiked. The surge in rates, however, hammered the growthier assets and Nasdaq underperformed, ending the week lower (for the 3rd straight week), while Small Caps (value) outperformed.

In case anyone doubts that algos are running the show – just look at how Nasdaq futs were levitated desperately to get back to unchanged on the week. Additionally, 4450 was the key level for S&P…

…pinned by today’s option expiration…

Source: SpotGamma

If one were to guess the S&P’s weekly performance after everything that happened – Evergrande’s missed coupon payment, Evergrande’s EV unit liquidity crunch, more hawkish than expected FOMC/BOE decisions, the FDX/NKE outlook cuts signaling supply chain stress is here to stay, chaos in DC with debt ceiling doubts and complete uncertainty over the size (if any) of a new stimulus bill, crypto carnage, and weak seasonals – we suspect the vast majority of people would have predicted steep declines… as opposed to modest gains.

(h/t @knowledge_vital)

BTFD, right? ‘Bad news is good news’ right?

After the Monday rout, the short squeeze was unleashed and got back to even on Thursday… running out of ammo again to maintain the lift into Friday…

Source: Bloomberg

Notably the rotation back to Small Caps (value) from Nasdaq (growth) stalled today at a key resistance level…

Energy stocks went from worst to first this week after plunging almost 6% on Monday to ending the week over 3% higher (followed by Financials). Utes  were the biggest losers…

Source: Bloomberg

Evergande’s dollar bonds are trading 25c on the dollar and the stocks tumbled another 7% this week (helped by a brief reprieve midweek which was reversed quite quickly) following last week’s 30% plunge…

Source: Bloomberg

Oh, and don’t forget the debt ceiling debacle looms over all of this…

Source: Bloomberg

Oh, and the market is now pricing in at least one rate hike by the end of 2022…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields rose for the 5th straight week (biggest weekly spike in yields since March). Notably, the move was entirely contained in the last two days which were the biggest 2-day spike since the first week of March. Aside from 2Y, the move was surprisingly uniform with the entire curve up around 9bps…

Source: Bloomberg

2Y yields rose back above FF and 5Y yields pushed up to their highest since February

Source: Bloomberg

30Y Yields spiked up to post-payrolls highs…

Source: Bloomberg

The Dollar ended marginally higher on the week but was whipsawed around on China and Fed headlines…

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos were clubbed like a baby seal this week, hit on liquidity needs around Evergrande’s broad-based degrossing and on China’s statement making crypto transactions “illegal”. Bitcoin was actually the least bad horse in the glue factory but everything was hit…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin has remained above $40k though for now…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin found support at its 100DMA three times this week…

Source: Bloomberg

A noisy week for commodities saw Crude outperforming along with modest gains for copper while PMs were very modestly lower…

Source: Bloomberg

WTI rallied back above $74, its highest since mid-July…

Source: Bloomberg

And gold ended back below $1800…

Finally, Goldman had a warning this week. Valuation is not typically the cause of a bubble bursting and stocks can stay ‘expensive’ for a long time.

But over a long time, the returns that you might expect to get from investing in equities tend to be far smaller when you buy stocks at high valuations than when you buy them when they are ‘cheap’.

Oh and remember, tapering is not tightening so BTFD!?

Source: Bloomberg

You are here.

i) MORNING TRADING

 

ii)  USA///INFLATION WATCH//SUPPLY ISSUES

A terrific article today from Simon Black

(courtesy Simon Black)

Does Anyone Honestly Believe That Inflation Is “Transitory” Anymore?

 
FRIDAY, SEP 24, 2021 – 10:16 AM

Authored by Simon Black via SovereignMan.com,

In the early summer of 1514, Spanish conquistador Ponce de Leon returned home to the court of King Ferdinand as a hero.

De Leon was among the first of Spain’s conquistadors to discover gold– right here in Puerto Rico. And that was enough for him to be knighted and bestowed all sorts of royal honors.

By that time, Europe had been suffering a shortage of gold and silver for nearly a century; mines and mints had closed down all across the continent, triggering what economic historians call ‘The Great Bullion Famine’ in the mid 1400s.

So the supply of money, i.e. gold and silver, was essentially stagnant. Technically European money supply was falling, because most European kingdoms ran a trade deficit with Asia and the Middle East.

Yet at the same time, European economies were finally starting to grow again following the consequences of the Black Plague and the Hundred Years War.

English wool production, for example, nearly tripled between the mid 1400s and the early 1500s.

So with more goods and services being produced at a time that money supply was falling, prices declined. This essentially what deflation is.

Wages, rents, and food prices in Spain, for example, dropped 25% over a century, according to economic historian E.J. Hamilton.

Now that actually sounds pretty good. But to Europe’s rulers, this deflation was a total catastrophe. And it sparked a number of international expeditions to find more gold.

Ponce de Leon was just one of many conquistadors to discover rich mineral deposits in Latin America… and then enslave the local populations to mine them.

The end result was a veritable mountain of gold being transported back to Spain, triggering a flood of new money into Europe’s economies.

Suddenly there was a surge in the money supply… yet roughly the same amount of goods and services being produced.

You can probably imagine what happened next: inflation.

These are clearly simple concepts; it doesn’t take a Ph.D. in economics to understand that, when you flood the financial system with money, it’s going to have an impact on prices.

That was true in Spain in the 1500s. And it’s true today as well.

Earlier this year when the government announced sharply higher inflation for the month of March, the Federal Reserve deemed the inflation to be ‘transitory’.

That was six months ago. Inflation has surged even higher since then.

It’s not hard to understand why.

First off– the Fed expanded the money supply last year more than in any other year in US history except for 1943.

That’s obviously going to have an impact.

At the same time, the government forced businesses to close… and then paid people to stay home and NOT work.

So essentially we had a LOT more money in the system, but far fewer goods and services being produced.

This has predictably created substantial inflation.

Here’s what’s really interesting, though. In its announcement yesterday, the Fed tacitly acknowledged this big inflation problem.

They understand that their zero interest rate policy and their bonanza of money printing are both driving prices higher.

They also understand that inflation is a MAJOR concern.

But then they essentially said, “Yeah, we’ll get to it in a couple of months.”

This was astonishing.

To give you an example, the Fed has been engaged in a ‘bond buying’ program… which means that they’re flooding the financial system with $120 billion per month in new money.

This is definitely a major factor that contributes to inflation.

Yet according to its announcement yesterday, the Fed is not even going to START the process of terminating this program until November. And even then, it will take them until the middle of NEXT YEAR before it’s been fully wound up.

What’s more, the Fed suggests that they might start raising interest rates by the end of 2022… and only HALF of the voting members think that’s a good idea.

Unreal. Inflation is surging near multi-decade highs. But they won’t even start the process to fix it for a couple of months, and might not do anything meaningful at all.

There are other factors as well to consider.

Competition, for example, is a great counterbalance to inflation.

Vigorous competition encourages businesses to deliver the highest quality products at the lowest possible price. And this is how the free market helps keep inflation in check.

But take a moment to reflect on US economic priorities:

They put a Socialist in charge of the Senate Budget Committee. They forcibly closed countless businesses during the pandemic.

They fanned the flames of hysteria to make people terrified to go to work. They spent hundreds of billions of dollars to pay people to stay home and NOT work.

And now, even though so many companies are struggling to find employees willing to work, they’re forcing businesses to lay off 90+ million unvaccinated workers.

If that weren’t enough, they’re trying to raise taxes on business and investment income, creating even more disincentives.

Hunter Biden’s dad insists that he’s a capitalist. But these are all EXTREMELY anti-competitive, anti-capitalist policies.

Stifling competition chips away at one of the last major counterbalances to inflation… at a time when the Federal Reserve is in absolutely no hurry to reverse its inflationary policies.

Does anyone honestly believe inflation will be transitory?

Ironically, even the Fed doesn’t believe it. Because in their updated economic projections, they quietly revised their 2022 inflation forecast notably higher.

If you’d like to hear more about this, take a listen to our Freedom Podcast today, which you can download here.

*  *  *

end

USA ECONOMIC DATA

New home sales; a tiny rise///remains 24% below pre Covid levels

(zerohedge)_ 

US New Home Sales Rise In August, Remain Below Pre-COVID Levels

 
FRIDAY, SEP 24, 2021 – 10:07 AM

After a disappointing (and surprise) slump in existing home sales, new-home-sales were expected to extend the very modest July rebound (+1.0% MoM) in August (+1.0% MoM exp) and they were right with new home sales rising 1.5% MoM (and July’s 1.0% MoM revised dramatically higher to a 6.4% MoM surge)

Source: Bloomberg

New home sales remain down over 24% year-over-year – the weakest in a decade.

Notably, the growth in new home sales was entirely driven by “homes not started”…

 

Source: Bloomberg

With “Completed” home sales at their lowest since 2016…

Source: Bloomberg

The SAAR of new home sales remains below pre-COVID levels

Source: Bloomberg

And while sales dropped over 24% YoY, median new home price rose over 20% YoY

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, we remind readers that homebuyer sentiment and homebuilder sentiment could not possibly be more divergent…

Source: Bloomberg

Can Jay Powell really afford to upset those homebuilders with his taper? What do homeowners know?

IMPORTANT USA//meat prices//shortages

Meat prices are remaining elevated due to depleted reserves.

(zerohedge)

US Meat Prices To Remain Elevated Amid Depleted Reserves

 
THURSDAY, SEP 23, 2021 – 08:00 PM

Beef, pork, and chicken in US cold storage warehouses have yet to recover from pandemic lows and could continue to support higher prices. 

New United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) data shows beef reserves dropped 7.7% from a year ago in August, poultry supplies fell 20%, and pork plunged 44% to their lowest levels since 2017, according to Bloomberg

Jim Sullivan, commercial director for Stable USA, said low meat inventories would suggest meat prices will stay elevated. 

“Prices remain very elevated compared to seasonal expectations,” Sullivan said. 

Soaring supermarket prices have been on the radar of the Biden administration as working-poor families allocate a high percentage of their incomes to basic and essential items. Higher food inflation eats away their wages and is why Biden recently increased SNAP benefits by a quarter

Earlier this month, the Biden administration finally addressed inflation as a concern but didn’t blame the trillions of dollars in fiscal and monetary policies and labor shortages on increased food inflation but instead placed responsibility on meatpackers. 

White House National Economic Council Director Brian Deese said “pandemic profiteering” food companies are driving up supermarket costs for Americans. This is nothing more than a blame game and failed government policies that have not just increased food prices but have left supply chains reeling due to stimulus checks that disincentivized workers from working. 

New data of low meat supply at US cold storage facility is more bad news for the Biden administration, who will have to develop a new narrative about why meat prices aren’t going down. If food inflation remains elevated into early next year, Americans might vote with their wallets during next year’s midterms

end 

iii)a) Important USA Economic Stories

Michael Snyder tackles the huge shortages everywhere

(Michael0 Snyder

Before They Were An Inconvenience, But Now The Shortages Are Really Beginning To Sting

 
FRIDAY, SEP 24, 2021 – 03:20 PM

Authored by Michael Snyder via TheMostImportantNews.com,

Have you noticed that store shelves are starting to get emptier and emptier?  During the panic shopping that was sparked by the start of the COVID pandemic in 2020, there were very intense shortages of certain items, but those shortages did not last very long at all.  But now there are widespread shortages in just about every sector of our economy, and they are starting to become quite painful.  Unfortunately, we are being told to expect the shortages to intensify as we head into the holiday season.  That is extremely alarming, because in many areas the shortages are already quite severe.

I had been away from the news for a couple of days, and when I came back there were lots more stories about our ongoing shortages.  For example, the following comes from an excellent piece by Matt Stoller

There are shortages in everything from ocean shipping containers to chlorine tablets to railroad capacity to black pipe (the piping that houses wires inside buildings) to spicy chicken breasts to specialized plastic bags necessary for making vaccines. Moreover, prices for all sorts of items, from housing to food, are changing in weird ways. Beef, for instance, is at near record highs for consumers, but cattle ranchers are getting paid much less than they used to for their cows.

In my entire life, I have never seen anything like this.

Even the Federal Reserve is admitting that we have a major problem at this point.  In fact, in the latest Beige Book the Fed referred to the shortages a whopping 80 times.

In certain parts of the country, these shortages are really beginning to sting.  A reader just emailed me about what is going on in his section of Connecticut, and he said that I could share this with all of you…

I am just a regular guy in Connecticut, who has been watching things very closely, especially from a Biblical perspective. I wanted to quickly share with you an experience my wife and I had about two weeks ago at a medium-size, family run grocery store near Waterbury, CT.

Seemingly overnight, we noticed there were little yellow signs on the shelves, where certain SKUs used to be. Not entire lines, but individual SKUs. For example, a flavor of oatmeal, certain cereals, etc. The signs said something to the effect of: “This item is no longer available due to supply chain constraints”. I would say there were a few hundred signs in total throughout the store. It wasn’t until we got to the juice/water aisle that we noticed the larger problem: there was no Gatorade (?) and no bottled water (gallon jugs).

I have befriended the manager over the years, so I asked him where the water is, and he told me “…they only will give us so many bottles”. I asked who ‘they’ is, and he said the manufacturer: they were being rationed. As he said this, a truck driver happened to walk by and joined in on the conversation. He told us that he just got back from Maine, after a three-day trip- a trip that normally takes him a few hours. He said he, and all of the other truck drivers, sit at the warehouses for days, waiting for their trucks to be filled. To be clear, I asked him how long it normally takes, and he said a few hours at the most.

On our way out, I remembered that we needed dog food, so we went to the pet aisle, and there was no cat litter, and no dog food, save a few little bags of the cheapest stuff. All of the things Steve Quayle has been saying about food and water shortages suddenly became reality. I always believed him, but now I was seeing it, at the very local level.

We then decided to go to PetSmart to get the dog food. Empty. The entire dog food shelf was empty except for a few bags!

Are similar things happening in your part of the country?

If so, please feel free to email me and let me know.

We need to share intel with one another, because the mainstream media is not telling us the truth.

Of course the shortages would not be as severe if we could actually unload all of the container ships that are backlogged at our ports.  Right now, dozens of container ships are sitting along the west coast waiting to be unloaded

The number of container ships at anchor or drifting in San Pedro Bay off the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach has blown through all previous records.

The latest peak: There were an all-time-high 73 container ships in the queue in San Pedro Bay on Sunday, according to the Marine Exchange of Southern California (the tally inched back to 69 on Tuesday). Of the ships offshore Sunday, 36 were forced to drift because anchorages were full.

Theoretically, the numbers — already surreally high — could go even higher than this. While designated anchorages are limited, the space for ships to safely drift offshore is not.

This is the same problem that I talked about the other day.

At one time we had more able-bodied workers than we knew what to do with, but now there is an extreme shortage of workers all over the globe.

Sadly, it has gotten to a point where we don’t even have enough people to drive our kids to school

School districts around the country are struggling to fill thousands of bus driver positions as worker shortages lead to late arrivals and last-minute scrambles to bring retired workers back onto payrolls.

The shortages are so bad in some places that districts are taking extraordinary steps to get kids to school as students return to in-person classes this fall. Philadelphia’s school district will pay families $300 a month, or $3,000 for the year, to opt out of transportation services and get their kids to school on their own. Albemarle County Public Schools in Virginia is offering a $2,500 bonus to new drivers — $100 more than the school district in the county seat, Charlottesville, is offering.

This is the worst labor shortage that the U.S. has ever faced, and it just keeps getting worse.

So where did all the people go?

Without enough able-bodied workers, our economy is experiencing a whole host of difficulties right now.  And when you consider everything else that has been going on, it shouldn’t be a surprise that Joe Biden’s approval rating just sunk to a new record low

Eight months after President Joe Biden’s inauguration, his job approval rating has fallen six percentage points to 43%, the lowest of his presidency. For the first time, a majority, 53%, now disapproves of Biden’s performance.

These findings are from a Sept. 1-17 Gallup poll that was conducted after the U.S. military evacuated more than 120,000 people from Afghanistan. The United States’ exit from the nation’s longest war was marred by the Taliban’s quick takeover of most of the country and a suicide bombing at the airport in Kabul, which killed 13 U.S. service members. Over the same period, COVID-19 infection rates, nationally, were surging, leading to hospital overflows in some regions.

And there are some parts of the nation where his approval rating is absolutely disastrous.  Just check out the latest numbers from Iowa

Just 31% of Iowans approved of how Joe Biden is handling his duties as president while a whopping 62% disapprove. Biden’s disapproval number is below the lowest ever measured by ace pollster J. Ann Selzer for former presidents Donald Trump (35%) and Barack Obama (36%).

“This is a bad poll for Joe Biden, and it’s playing out in everything that he touches right now,” Selzer told the Des Moines Register.

Less than a year ago, a lot of Americans were viewing Biden as some sort of a “savior” figure.

That didn’t exactly work out, did it?

Many of us have been warning that shortages and high levels of inflation were coming for a very long time, but of course most of the population is not interested in such warnings.

They just want to be told that everything is going to be okay.

But the truth is that everything is not going to be okay, and the pain that we have experienced so far is just the beginning.

b)USA COVID/VACCINE UPDATES

Great ruling!

Florida Judge Halts City’s COVID-19 Vaccine Mandate

 
 
FRIDAY, SEP 24, 2021 – 11:13 AM

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A judge in Florida on Wednesday blocked a city’s COVID-19 mandate from taking effect.

Circuit Judge Monica Brasington, a Sen. Rick Scott appointee, granted a request for an emergency injunction. That means the mandate, which was slated to take effect on Oct. 1, is blocked for now.

The city did not put on any evidence, at all, at the injunction hearing,” Brasington wrote in a 7-page ruling.

“Without any evidence, the court is unable to consider whether the vaccine mandate serves a compelling interest through the least restrictive means, whether the vaccine mandate meets a strict scrutiny test, a rational basis test, or whether it meets any other standard,” she added.

Gainesville’s City Commission on Aug. 5 decided all city employees needed to get vaccinated against the virus that causes COVID-19. A week later, City Manager Lee Feldman ordered employees to get at least one dose by Oct. 1 and be fully vaccinated by Oct. 14.

More than 200 Gainesville employees sued, noting that the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines in stopping transmission of the CCP (Chinese Communist Party) virus has stopped. They also said that the mandate did not make sense because many of them have natural immunity, or protection from having had COVID-19, and because area hospitals were not experiencing a shortage of beds.

In a recent hearing, the employees argued that the mandate violated their right to privacy under the Florida Constitution.

That means defendants have to show that the law “furthers a compelling state interest in the least restrictive way,” Judge Brasington said.

But the city submitted no evidence, called no witnesses, and did not file any affidavits or declarations, leading the judge to rule in favor of the plaintiffs.

“The city had an opportunity to present evidence that would show that this Vaccine Mandate was the least restrictive means to meet a compelling government interest. The city did not do that and, in fact, did not present any evidence, at all. Therefore, the court is required to find that the city failed to meet its burden of proving that the vaccine mandate furthers a compelling state interest in the least restrictive way,” she ruled.

The city is prohibited from enforcing the mandate and firing or disciplining any employee who fails to comply with it.

The court agreed that the city doesn’t own its employees’ bodies,” Jeff Childers, an attorney for the plaintiffs, told The Epoch Times.

Jon Cicio, one of the plaintiffs, said he was relieved.

“It feels like a huge weight has been lifted off my shoulders. I can get back to focusing on serving the citizens the way they deserve, with no distraction,” he told The Epoch Times.

Florida Attorney General Ashley Moody, a Republican who filed an amicus brief in support of the plaintiffs, also celebrated the ruling.

“I was proud to stand with police and first responders to stop the city of Gainesville from firing them based on an unlawful government vaccine mandate. Today, the court agreed and protected their jobs. This is great news,” she wrote on Twitter.

A lawyer for Gainesville declined to comment

end

House passes amendment to defund Wuhan lab middleman EcoHealth.

(Watson/SummitNews)

Too Late… House Passes Amendment To Defund Wuhan Lab Middleman Outfit EcoHealth Alliance

 
FRIDAY, SEP 24, 2021 – 12:30 PM

Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,

The House passed an amendment to the National Defense Authorization Act Thursday that will seeing all funding blocked to EcoHealth Alliance, the outfit that fuelled US money to the Wuhan Institute of Virology for gain of function experiments that some scientists believe led to the COVID pandemic.

Republican Pennsylvania Rep. Guy Reschenthaler introduced the amendment, noting “It is deeply disturbing that EcoHealth Alliance funneled American taxpayer dollars to support dangerous and potentially deadly research at the WIV, a laboratory run by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and tied to military biological research and the probable origin of the COVID-19 pandemic.”

Reschenthaler added “I am proud to lead this effort to end the flow of defense funding to EcoHealth Alliance, and I thank my colleagues for including my amendment in the defense authorization bill and ensuring Americans’ hard-earned money never again funds risky experiments in labs operated by our adversaries.”

As was reported earlier this week, EcoHealth Alliance under head Peter Daszak attempted to secure millions more in funding from the Pentagon’s scientific arm DARPA to genetically alter viruses, including bat coronaviruses, to make them more infectious to humans, and then to spray nanoparticles containing skin penetrating SARSr CoV spike proteins into the air, just eighteen months prior to the subsequent COVID outbreak and pandemic.

DARPA rejected the plan as being too dangerous to the human population, but the work may have gone ahead anyway.

end

This will hurt

(zerohedge)

PG&E Charged With Deaths Of 4 In 2020 Wildfire Started By Its Equipment

 
FRIDAY, SEP 24, 2021 – 03:00 PM

Shares of the perennially-troubled PG&E – America’s largest utility whose aging equipment has helped start a rash of deadly wildfires across California – tumbled Friday after the DA in Shasta County hit the company (which just emerged this spring from its second bankruptcy filing in as many decades) with a 31-count indictment, including 11 felonies, and 4 manslaughter charges.

The charges were mostly tied to the 2020 Zogg fire in northern California, where hundreds of homes were destroyed

During a Friday news conference, Shasta County District Attorney Stephanie Bridgett said her office had determined back in July that PG&E was “criminally liable” for last year’s Zogg Fire, which blazed near the NorCal city of Redding.

“They failed to perform their legal duties. Their failure was reckless, criminally negligent, and resulted in the deaths of four people,” Bridgett said during the briefing.

PG&E’s recent criminal convictions from the last few years, which have been marred by intense wildfire seasons in the West, include pleading guilty last year to 84 counts of involuntary manslaughter tied to the Camp Fire, the 2018 blaze ignited by its long-neglected electrical grid that nearly destroyed the town of Paradise.

It’s also still facing criminal charges from the 2018 Camp Fire in Butte County, the 2019 Kincade Fire in Sonoma County and was on probation from the deadly San Bruno explosion when a 30-inch pipe exploded into flames killing eight people.

Bridgett explained PG&E’s liability thusly: the fire was started because PG&E didn’t remove a tree, which had been marked to be removed in 2013, but never was. A grapevine left in place on that tree caused significant physical defects to its trunk, which ultimately fell on an electrical line during a windstorm on Sept. 27, 2020.

The charges were announced three days before the anniversary of the fire.

“I have determined that we have sufficient evidence to prove beyond a reasonable doubt that the Pacific Gas & Electric Company is criminally liable for their reckless ignition of the Zogg Fire and the deaths and destruction that it caused,” she said at a news conference. “While criminal prosecutions of corporations is rare. One of the primary reasons to charge a corporation criminal is a finding that illegal behavior is widespread and serious. Their failure was reckless and was criminally negligent, and it resulted in the death of four people.”

The indictment counts span from murder to environmental crimes; 20 are misdemeanors.

PG&E said previously the death and destruction caused by the Zogg fire (and all the other fires its equipment has caused) have been “heartbreaking” but that it has resolved civil claims with Shasta County and continues to reach settlements with victims and their families.

“We do not, however, agree with the district attorney’s conclusion that criminal charges are warranted given the facts of this case,” the utility’s statement said after the DA announced her desire to charge the utility this summer.

Of course, the more legal pressure PG&E is facing, the higher the odds that it will simply retreat once again behind bankruptcy protection (what would be its third since 2001) to manage its claims. Though there’s also the threat that its regulator, the Public Utility Board of California, takes over control (something that would probably horrify shareholders).

And, in what’s perhaps the most perverse outcome of all, whatever fines it pays out will be offset by rate hikes borne by its customers, about 16MM people in northern and north-central California. And no matter what happens, next year we’ll get to go through this whole process again since PG&E has already copped to starting more fires this year.

iv) Swamp commentaries/

A long commentary but well worth reading.  To me this is heading into a big conspiracy charge.

(Paul Sperry/RealClearIInvestigations.com)

Biden Security Adviser Jake Sullivan Tied To Alleged 2016 Clinton Scheme To Co-Opt CIA/FBI To Tar Trump

 
THURSDAY, SEP 23, 2021 – 10:20 PM

Authored by Paul Sperry via RealClearInvestigations.com,

White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan figures prominently in a grand jury investigation run by Special Counsel John Durham into an alleged 2016 Hillary Clinton campaign scheme to use both the FBI and CIA to tar Donald Trump as a colluder with Russia, according to people familiar with the criminal probe, which they say has broadened into a conspiracy case.

Biden National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan as Clinton campaign adviser for the 2016 election. AP Photo/Ng Han Guan, File

Sullivan is facing scrutiny, sources say, over potentially false statements he made about his involvement in the effort, which continued after the election and into 2017. As a senior foreign policy adviser to Clinton, Sullivan spearheaded what was known inside her campaign as a “confidential project” to link Trump to the Kremlin through dubious email-server records provided to the agencies, said the sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

Last week, Michael A. Sussmann, a partner in Perkins Coie, a law firm representing the Hillary Clinton campaign and the Democratic National Committee, was indicted by a federal grand jury on charges of making false statements to the FBI about his clients and their motives behind planting the rumor, at the highest levels of the FBI, of a secret Trump-Russia server. After a months-long investigation, the FBI found no merit to the rumor.

The grand jury indicated in its lengthy indictment that several people were involved in the alleged conspiracy to mislead the FBI and trigger an investigation of the Republican presidential candidate — including Sullivan, who was described by his campaign position but not identified by name.

The Clinton campaign project, these sources say, also involved compiling a “digital dossier” on several Trump campaign officials – including Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn, Paul Manafort, George Papadopoulos, and Carter Page. This effort exploited highly sensitive, nonpublic Internet data related to their personal email communications and web-browsing, known as Internet Protocol, or IP, addresses.

Alleged targets: Michael Flynn, Paul Manafort, George Papadopoulos, Carter Page. YouTube/CNN/FNC/RCP

To mine the data, the Clinton campaign enlisted a team of Beltway computer contractors as well as university researchers with security clearance who often collaborate with the FBI and the intelligence community. They worked from a five-page campaign document called the “Trump Associates List.”

The tech group also pulled logs purportedly from servers for a Russian bank and Trump Tower, and the campaign provided the data to the FBI on two thumb drives, along with three “white papers” that claimed the data indicated the Trump campaign was secretly communicating with Moscow through a server in Trump Tower and the Alfa Bank in Russia. Based on the material, the FBI opened at least one investigation, adding to several others it had already initiated targeting the Trump campaign in the summer of 2016.

Michael Sussmann: Indicted former Clinton campaign lawyer allegedly coordinated with Jake Sullivan on dubious materials provided to the FBI and media. perkinscoie.com

The indictment states that Sussmann, as well as the cyber experts recruited for the operation, “coordinated with representatives and agents of the Clinton campaign with regard to the data and written materials that Sussmann gave to the FBI and the media.”

One of those campaign agents was Sullivan, according to emails Durham obtained. On Sept. 15, 2016 – just four days before Sussmann handed off the materials to the FBI – Marc Elias, his law partner and fellow Democratic Party operative, “exchanged emails with the Clinton campaign’s foreign policy adviser concerning the Russian bank allegations,” as well as with other top campaign officials, the indictment states.

The sources close to the case confirmed the “foreign policy adviser” referenced by title is Sullivan. They say he was briefed on the development of the opposition-research materials tying Trump to Alfa Bank, and was aware of the participants in the project. These included the Washington opposition-research group Fusion GPS, which worked for the Clinton campaign as a paid agent and helped gather dirt on Alfa Bank and draft the materials Elias discussed with Sullivan, the materials Sussmann would later submit to the FBI. Fusion researchers were in regular contact with both Sussmann and Elias about the project in the summer and fall of 2016. Sullivan also personally met with Elias, who briefed him on Fusion’s opposition research, according to the sources.

Sullivan maintained in congressional testimony in December 2017 that he didn’t know of Fusion’s involvement in the Alfa Bank opposition research. In the same closed-door testimony before the House Intelligence Committee, he also denied knowing anything about Fusion in 2016 or who was conducting the opposition research for the campaign.

“Marc [Elias] … would occasionally give us updates on the opposition research they were conducting, but I didn’t know what the nature of that effort was – inside effort, outside effort, who was funding it, who was doing it, anything like that,” Sullivan stated under oath.

Jake Sullivan’s December 2017 House testimony may put him in perjury jeopardy.  House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence

Sullivan also testified he didn’t know that Perkins Coie, the law firm where Elias and Sussmann were partners, was working for the Clinton campaign until October 2017, when it was reported in the media as part of stories revealing the campaign’s contract with Fusion, which also produced the so-called Steele dossier. Sullivan maintained he didn’t even know that the politically prominent Elias worked for Perkins Coie, a well-known Democratic law firm. Major media stories from 2016 routinely identified Elias as “general counsel for the Clinton campaign” and a “partner at Perkins Coie.”

“To be honest with you, Marc wears a tremendous number of hats, so I wasn’t sure who he was representing,” Sullivan testified.

“I sort of thought he was, you know, just talking to us as, you know, a fellow traveler in this — in this campaign effort.”

Although he acknowledged knowing Elias and his partner were marshaling opposition researchers for a campaign project targeting Trump, Sullivan insisted, “They didn’t do something with it.” In truth, they used the research to instigate a full-blown investigation at the FBI and seed a number of stories in the Washington media, which Elias discussed in emails.

Marc Elias: Prominent Democrat lawyer allegedly also coordinated with Sullivan. Sullivan would later plead ignorance under oath about Elias’s role. Perkins Coie

Lying to Congress is a felony. Though the offense is rarely prosecuted, former Special Counsel Robert Mueller won convictions of two of Trump’s associates on charges of that very offense.

An attorney for Sullivan did not respond to questions, while a spokeswoman for the National Security Council declined comment. After the 2016 election, Sullivan continued to participate in the anti-Trump effort, which enlisted no fewer than three Internet companies and two university computer researchers, who persisted in exploiting nonpublic Internet data to conjure up “derogatory information on Trump” and his associates, according to the indictment.

Prosecutors say the operation ran through at least February 2017, when Sullivan met with another central figure in the plot to plant the anti-Trump smear at the FBI. But now the goal was to compel agents to continue investigating the false rumors in the wake of the election, thereby keeping Trump’s presidency under an ethical cloud.

Daniel Jones: One of the lead figures in helping resurrect the Trump-Russia collusion narrative after Trump’s election, Jones coordinated with Sullivan in hatching the effort. McCain Institute/YouTube

On Feb. 10, 2017, Sullivan huddled with two Fusion operatives and their partner Daniel Jones, a former FBI analyst and Democratic staffer on the Hill, to hatch the post-election plan to resurrect rumors Trump was a tool of the Kremlin. As RealClearInvestigations first reported, the meeting, which lasted about an hour and took place in a Washington office building, also included former Clinton campaign chairman John Podesta. The group discussed raising money to finance a multimillion-dollar opposition research project headed by Jones to target the new president. In effect, Jones’ operation would replace the Clinton campaign’s operation, continuing the effort to undermine Trump.

It’s not clear if Sussmann attended the Feb. 10 meeting, but he was apparently still involved in the operation, along with his crew of data miners. The day before the meeting attended by Sullivan, Sussmann paid a visit to the CIA’s Langley headquarters to peddle the disinformation about the secret server – this time to top officials there, according to the sources familiar with Durham’s investigation. During a roughly 90-minute meeting, Sussmann provided two officials at the intelligence headquarters “updated” documents and data he’d provided the FBI before the election, RealClearInvestigations has learned exclusively.

Then, on March 28, 2017, Jones met with the FBI to pass on supposedly fresh leads he and the cyber researchers had learned about the Alfa Bank server and Trump, and the FBI looked into the new leads after having closed its investigation a month earlier. That same month, FBI Director James Comey publicly announced the bureau was investigating possible “coordination” between Moscow and the newly sworn-in president’s campaign.

Despite the renewed push by Jones, the FBI debunked the tip of a nefarious Russian back channel. Agents learned the email server in question wasn’t even controlled by the Trump Organization. “It wasn’t true,” Mueller confirmed in 2019 testimony.

It turns out that the supposed “secret server” was housed in the small Pennsylvania town of Lititz, and not  Trump Tower in New York City, and it was operated by a marketing firm based in Florida called Cendyn that routinely blasts out emails promoting multiple hotel chains. Simply put, the third-party server sent spam to Alfa Bank employees who used Trump hotels. The bank had maintained a New York office since 2001.

“The FBI’s investigation revealed that the email server at issue was not owned or operated by the Trump Organization but, rather, had been administrated by a mass-marketing email company that sent advertisements for Trump hotels and hundreds of other clients,” Durham wrote in his indictment.

Nonetheless, Jones and Sullivan kept promoting the canard as true.

Democrat Senators Mark Warner and Ron Wyden: Conduits for TDIP’s Trump-Russia material. AP Photo/Andrew Harnik

With help from Sullivan and Podesta in 2017, Jones launched a nonprofit group called The Democracy Integrity Project, which raised some $7 million mainly from Silicon Valley tech executives. TDIP hired computer researchers, as well as Fusion opposition researchers and Christopher Steele, the British author of the now-discredited Steele dossier, to “prove” the rumors in the dossier. As they sought new dirt on Trump, they fed their information to media outlets, leading Democrats on the Senate Intelligence Committee (namely Sens. Mark Warner and Ron Wyden), and the FBI. Jones previously worked on the Senate intelligence panel, which had launched a major investigation of Trump and Russia, and he provided a pipeline of information for the committee, according to the sources.

As RCI first reported, Jones emailed a daily news bulletin known as “TDIP Research” to prominent Beltway journalists to keep the Trump-Russia “collusion” rumor-mill going, including the debunked rumor about the “secret server.” Durham has subpoenaed Jones to testify before his grand jury hearing the case, along with computer experts and researchers recruited by Sussmann for the Clinton campaign project, persons close to the investigation said. Attempts to reach Jones for comment were unsuccessful.

In a statement, Durham said his investigation “is ongoing.”

Special Counsel John Durham: Lengthy single count “speaking” indictment of Sussmann suggests a broader conspiracy case in the works. AP

Indictments for a single-count process crime such as making a false statement normally run a page or two. But Durham’s filing charging Sussmann spans 27 pages and is packed with detail. FBI veterans say the 40-year prosecutor used the indictment to outline a broader conspiracy case he’s building that invokes several other federal statutes.

“That is what we call a ‘speaking indictment,’ meaning it is far more detailed than is required for a simple indictment under [federal statute] 1001,” which outlaws making false statements and representations to federal investigators, former assistant FBI Director Chris Swecker said in an interview with RealClearInvestigations.

“It is damning,” he added.

“And I see it as a placeholder for additional indictments, such as government grant and contract fraud, computer intrusion, the Privacy Act and other laws against dissemination of personally identifiable information, and mail fraud and wire fraud – not to mention conspiracy to commit those offenses.”

Chris Swecker: The Sussmann indictment “is damning,” and “I definitely see more to come,” says the ex-top FBI investigator. Miller & Martin

“I definitely see more [indictments] to come,” emphasized Swecker, who knows Durham personally and worked with him on prior investigations. The sources close to the case said former FBI general counsel James Baker, who accepted the sketchy materials from Sussmann and passed them on to agents for investigation, is cooperating with Durham’s investigation, along with former FBI counterintelligence chief Bill Priestap, who has provided prosecutors contemporaneous notes about what led the bureau to open an investigation into the allegations Trump used Alfa Bank as a conduit between his campaign and Russian President Vladimir Putin to steal the election.

According to the sources, Durham also has found evidence Sussmann misled the CIA, another front in the scandal being reported here for the first time. In December 2016, the sources say Sussmann phoned the general counsel at the agency and told her the same story about the supposed secret server – at the same time the CIA was compiling a national intelligence report that accused Putin of meddling in the election to help Trump win.

Sussmann told Caroline Krass, then the agency’s top attorney, that he had information that may help her with a review President Obama had ordered of all intelligence related to the election and Russia, known as the Intelligence Community Assessment. The review ended up including an annex with several unfounded and since-debunked allegations against Trump developed by the Clinton campaign.

It’s not clear if the two-page annex, which claimed the allegations were “consistent with the judgments in this assessment,” included the Alfa Bank canard. Before it was made public, several sections had been redacted. But after Sussmann conveyed the information to Krass, an Obama appointee, she told him she would consider it for the intelligence review of Russian interference, which tracks with Sussmann’s 2017 closed-door testimony before the House Intelligence Committee. (Krass’ name is blacked out in the declassified transcript, but sources familiar with Sussmann’s testimony confirmed that he identified her as his CIA contact.)

Caroline Krass: Michael Sussmann also gave  Trump-Russia material to this CIA lawyer. CIA/Wikipedia

“We’re interested,” said Krass, who left the agency several months later. “We’re doing this review and I’ll speak to someone here.”

It’s not known if Sussmann failed to inform the top CIA lawyer that he was working on behalf of the Clinton campaign, as he’s alleged to have done at the FBI. Attempts to reach Krass, who now serves as Biden’s top lawyer at the Pentagon, were unsuccessful.

But in his return trip to the CIA after the election, Sussmann “stated falsely – as he previously had stated to the FBI general counsel – that he was ‘not representing a particular client,’ ” according to the Durham indictment, which cites a contemporaneous memo drafted by two agency officials with whom Sussmann met that memorializes their meeting. (The document refers to the CIA by the pseudonym “Agency-2.” Sources confirm Agency-2 is the CIA.)

Remarkably, the CIA did not ask for the source of Sussmann’s walk-in tip, including where he got several data files he gave the agency. The FBI exhibited a similar lack of curiosity when Sussmann told it about the false Trump/Alfa Bank connection.

Attempts to reach Sussmann to get his side to the additional CIA allegations leveled by Durham were unsuccessful. The 57-year-old attorney pleaded not guilty to a single felony count and was released on a $100,000 bond Friday. If convicted, he faces up to five years in prison.

The prominent Washington lawyer quietly resigned from Perkins Coie, which has scrubbed all references to him from its website. And late last month, as rumors of the indictment swirled, the powerhouse law firm divested its entire Political Law Group formerly headed by Marc Elias – who commissioned the Steele dossier. Elias, who worked closely with Sussmann on the Trump-Alfa Bank project, also is no longer employed by the firm.

Jake Sullivan’s Golf Cart Rounds

In late July 2016, during the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia, the CIA picked up Russian chatter about a Clinton foreign policy adviser who was trying to develop allegations to “vilify” Trump. The intercepts said Clinton herself had approved a “plan” to “stir up a scandal” against Trump by tying him to Putin. According to hand-written notes, then-CIA chief John Brennan warned President Obama that Moscow had intercepted information about the “alleged approval by Hillary Clinton on July 26, 2016, of a proposal from one of her foreign policy advisers to vilify Donald Trump.” That summer, Brennan had personally briefed Democrats, including then-Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, on the Alfa Bank-Trump server rumors, according to congressional reports. Reid fired off a letter to Comey demanding that the FBI do more to investigate Trump’s ties to Russia.

During that convention, Sullivan drove a golf cart from one TV-network news tent in the parking lot to another, pitching producers and anchors a story that Trump was conspiring with Putin to steal the election. CNN, ABC News, CBS News, and NBC News, as well as Chris Wallace of Fox News, all gave him airtime to spin the Clinton campaign’s unfounded theories. Sullivan also gave off-camera background briefings to reporters.

“We were on a mission,” Clinton campaign spokeswoman Jennifer Palmieri later admitted in a Washington Post column. “We wanted to raise the alarm.”

Then, on the eve of the election, Sullivan claimed in a written campaign statement that Trump and the Russians had set up a “secret hotline” through Alfa Bank, and he suggested “federal authorities” were investigating “this direct connection between Trump and Russia.” He portrayed the shocking discovery as the work of independent experts — “computer scientists” — without disclosing their attachment to the campaign.

“This could be the most direct link yet between Donald Trump and Moscow,” Sullivan claimed.

Clinton teed up his statement in an Oct. 31, 2016, tweet, which quickly went viral. Also that day, Clinton tweeted, “It’s time for Trump to answer serious questions about his ties to Russia,” while attaching a meme that read: “Donald Trump has a secret server. It was set up to communicate privately with a Putin-tied Russian bank called Alfa Bank.”

The Clinton campaign played up the bogus Trump-Alfa Bank story on the eve of the 2016 election. Twitter/@HillaryClinton

It’s not immediately apparent if then-Vice President Joe Biden was briefed about the Alfa Bank tale or other Trump-Russia rumors and investigations.

Biden has never been questioned about his own role in the investigation of Trump. However, it was the former vice president who introduced the idea of prosecuting Trump’s national security adviser appointee, Gen. Flynn, under the Logan Act of 1799, a dead-letter statute that prohibits private citizens from interfering in U.S. foreign policy and which hasn’t been used to prosecute anyone in modern times. According to notes taken by then-FBI counterintelligence official Peter Strzok, who attended a Jan. 5, 2017, Oval Office meeting with Obama and Biden, in which Trump, Flynn and Russia were discussed, Biden raised the idea: “VP: Logan Act,” the notes read.

Although he’s not an attorney, Sullivan has argued in congressional testimony and elsewhere that Flynn violated the Logan Act, raising suspicions he may have put the idea in Biden’s head. Sullivan had advised the vice president before joining the Clinton campaign.

end

King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories./ of the day

WSJ: China Makes Preparations for Evergrande’s Demise
Beijing, reluctant to bail out the country’s most heavily indebted property developer, is asking local officials across the country to prepare for a ‘possible storm’
    They said that local governments have been tasked with preventing unrest and mitigating the ripple effect on home buyers and the broader economy, for example by limiting job losses—scenarios that have grown in likelihood as Evergrande’s situation has worsened…
    Policy makers are also considering gradually easing some property curbs in smaller Chinese cities, such as making ownership of a second home easier, according to one of the people. They could also moderate some of the stringent deleveraging measures on property developers that helped push heavily indebted Evergrande toward the precipice in recent months, this person said. Even so, any such moderation of the policies would be confined to smaller cities, and wouldn’t change the larger nationwide campaign to rein in the property sector, this person said…
https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/china-preparations-evergrande-social-economic-demise

@bankofengland: The Monetary Policy Committee voted unanimously to keep interest rates at 0.1% and by a majority of 7-2 to maintain the amount of quantitative easing at £895bnhttps://b-o-e.uk/3AA5wiN
    CPI inflation was projected to rise temporarily in the near term, to 4% in 2021 Q4, owing largely to developments in energy and goods prices. Conditioned on the market path for interest rates, CPI inflation was expected to fall back to close to the 2% target in the medium term…

ESZs, which traded modestly higher during Asian trading, commenced a surge 15 minutes before Europe opened.  The robust rally ended at 5 ET.  After rescinding the entire European rally by 9:10 ET, someone aggressively bought ESZs, driving them 47 handles higher from 9:10 ET to 10:27 ET.  Obviously, this is blatant manipulation, impact trading to create a narrative.  In this case, the media rationalized the rally as Wall Street not being concerned about a Fed taper or Evergrande’s demise.

To reiterate for the umpteenth time, no rational organic buyer of stocks would purchase shares so recklessly.  Furthermore, most institutions use computer programs, like VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price), to mete out orders over the course of a session.  Numerous institutional traders are graded on every trade they make.  Computers programs judge their efficacy.

Bonds and gold tumbled on Thursday as traders that owned these safe havens panicked and sold.

After the first-hour surge, ESZs and stocks traded sideways with a slight upward bias until another rally commenced at 13:00 ET.  The rally ended at 13:54 ET.  ESZs and stocks sank into the close.

US Initial Jobless Claims unexpectedly jumped to 351k; 320k was expected.  Continuing Claims increased to 2.845m from 2.665m; 2.6m was expected.  A surge in California (24,221) and Virginia (12,879) jobless claims are the culprits.  These increases in jobless claims came one week after the expiration of $300 per week in supplemental unemployment benefits.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. increased by 0.9 percent in August to 117.1 (2016 = 100), following a 0.8 percent increase in July and a 0.6 percent increase in June…
https://www.conference-board.org/pdf_free/press/US%20LEI%20PRESS%20RELEASE%20-%20September%202021.pdf

White House analysis says wealthy Americans pay far less in taxes than others
The White House analysis from two economists suggests that the wealthiest 400 households in the country — those with net worth ranging between $2.1 billion and $160 billion — pay an effective federal income tax rate of just over 8 percent per year on average https://t.co/kOPlV6fP6v
Fed Balance Sheet: +$41.054B, MBS +$22.401B, Treasuries +$21.502B
https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/20210923/

Evergrande bondholders seek clarity on payments after hope fades on Thursday deadline
As the close of the day drew nearer in New York, there had still been no announcements by Evergrande about the payment…”Given there is a 30-day grace period, I think today it’s very likely the coupon won’t be made but it is possible that they try to get a deal done in the next 30 days.”…
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-evergrande-faces-key-deadline-investors-await-outcome-2021-09-23/

Today – The S&P 500 Index closed above its 50-day moving average yesterday.  We have regularly noted that when stocks breach important technical thresholds, someone invariably surfaces to employ impact trading, AKA manipulation, to save stocks and return and index above the breakdown level.

The King Report for Tuesday, September 21, 2021: The S&P 500 Index closed well below its 50-DMA.  The last time this occurred was on March 3, 2020.  The next day, someone made sure that the index jumped back above the 50-DMA.  Bulls want to generate a Turnaround Tuesday to the upside and force the S&P 500 Index back above its 50-DMA.  It took 3 sessions for the task to be accomplished.

Rubio Slams Biden for Rationing Life-Saving Treatment to Republican States
The Biden administration is rationing the supply of monoclonal antibodies to coerce Red states into getting more Covid vaccines
https://conservativefiringline.com/rubio-biden-rationing-life-saving-treatment-to-republican-states-video/

 

@ianmSC: Cases in South Korea have been at record high levels for nearly 3 months now despite 99% mask compliance, mask mandates and fines for non-compliance, so it’s always nice to hear politicians and experts keep pushing more mask mandates & forcing masks on 2 year olds
https://twitter.com/ianmSC/status/1441154148590764035

@charliespiering: No public events on Biden’s schedule today (Thursday)

Government report indicates Biden could owe as much as $500K in back taxes https://trib.al/SWVqLbW

Prosecutors Lost a Fight to Keep a Set of Jan. 6 Capitol Surveillance Videos Under Seal
A judge rebuffed the government’s argument that releasing more surveillance videos posed a national security risk. (The videos destroy the DoJ and media narratives about the demonstrators.)
https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/zoetillman/capitol-footage-lawsuit-release-insurrection

@SchwartzesqueHunter Biden asked for a retainer of, um, $2 million per year, plus ‘success fees’, to help unfreeze money belonging to the Libyan govt. This was 2015, while his father was still VP. Caveats: Deal didn’t wind up happening. Emails aren’t from the famous laptop — I obtained them through another source during the course of reporting on something else.
https://www.businessinsider.com/new-emails-reveal-that-hunter-biden-wanted-2-million-for-libya-deal-2021-9

Afghan Refugees Face Federal Charges after Trying to Rape Child, Strangle Woman in Wisconsin: DOJ  https://www.dailywire.com/news/afghan-refugees-face-federal-charges-after-trying-to-rape-child-strangle-woman-in-wisconsin-report

 
 
end
 
Let us close out the week with this offering courtesy of Greg Hunter…

Minaj Vax Storm, Trump is Coming Back, Fed Taper Bluff

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com (WNW 496 9.24.21)

Superstar rap singer Nicki Minaj has escaped the Democrat thought plantation.  Minaj posted some true negative information about side effects from the CV19 vaccines to her millions of fans on social media last week.  The fire storm from globalist Marxist Democrats burned red hot.  Minaj alleged her family was threatened, and the White House wanted to call her to give her proper information (talking points) about vax side effects.  Minaj declined and was not happy.  The mainstream media (MSM) also joined in on the reeducation of Minaj, which exposes the MSM, once again, as pure propaganda and not journalism.  Minaj is not backing down to what she calls “bullies”! There is lots of new scientific information out this week that shows the dangers of the so-called vaccines, but it’s all “misinformation” to the propaganda machine that wants you jabbed no matter what.

Adam Schiff and his Democrat colleagues have introduced legislation to limit the powers and protections of the President of the United States of America.  What???  Isn’t a Democrat going to be in the White House for the next 3 years?  What’s going on?  Do Democrats think there is a chance that Trump will be reinstated?  I think they do.  After all, the Dems know full well they cheated to win the White House, Senate and House.  Of course, more and more cheating is exposed every week, and the results of the Arizona audit are coming out soon.  Meanwhile, states like Texas are announcing new forensic audits of the 2020 Election in the Lone Star State.

Looks like the federal government will not shut down as Speaker Pelosi has announced a Continuing Resolution that will keep the government running and paying its bills.  Another crisis has been averted, but the spending crisis and debt crisis is going on unabated.  Will the Fed finally taper all the easy money, or will another financial crisis force them to print bigger mountains of money to keep it all afloat?  I predict we are going to see by the end of this year.

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he talks about these stories and more in the Weekly News Wrap-Up for 9.24.21.

(To Donate to USAWatchdog.com Click Here)

Minaj Vax Storm, Trump is Coming Back, Fed Taper Bluff

 

After the Wrap-Up:

Top trends researcher Gerald Celente, publisher of The Trends Journal, will be the guest for the Saturday Evening Post.  He correctly predicted vax wars, and now he sees trouble in the financial world.  Listen up!

 
 
I will see you MONDAY night
 

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