OCT 15/TYPICAL FRIDAY GOLD AND SILVER RAID!//GOLD FALLS $28.85 TO $1767.90//SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TO $23.32//COMEX GOLD STANDING INCREASES TO 50.5 TONNES//SILVER STANDING INCREASES TO 9.525 MILLION OZ//COVID COMMENTARIES//VACCINE UPDATES// BIG STUDY OUT OF TAIWAN: A MUST READ AS DEATHS AND CASES TOOK OFF ONCE THEY STARTED TO VACCINATE//NBA STAR GOODWIN HAS CHEST PAINS AND IS NOW OUT FOR THE SEASON AND MOST LIKELY HIS CAREER IS OVER//NAVY TO IMPLEMENT VACCINE MANDATE//ALSO ALBERTA CANADA WILL DO THE SAME TOMORROW//BROOKLYN BANS KYRIE IRVING FROM PLAYING AND THAT SHOULD DO IN BASKETBALL//LA PALMA UPDATES// GOOD NUMBER OF STORIES ON GOOD SHORTAGES AND PRODUCTION PROBLEMS//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

 

GOLD:$1767.90 DOWN $28.85   The quote is London spot price

Silver:$23.32 DOWN 13  CENTS  London spot price ( cash market)

 
 
4:30 closing price
 
Gold $1768.00
 
silver:  23.33
 
 
 
end
 

PLATINUM AND PALLADIUM PRICES BY GOLD-EAGLE (MORE ACCURATE)

 

 

PLATINUM  $1063.85 DOWN  $3.10

PALLADIUM: $2073.00 DOWN $63.85/OZ 

 

END

Editorial of The New York Sun | February 1, 2021

end

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COMEX DETAILS//NOTICES FILED

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

receiving today  8/22

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: OCTOBER 2021 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,796.700000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 10/14/2021 DELIVERY DATE: 10/18/2021
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
118 C MACQUARIE FUT 9
661 C JP MORGAN 8
737 C ADVANTAGE 22
905 C ADM 5
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 22 22
MONTH TO DATE: 16,273

____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 22

 

issued:  2391

Goldman Sachs stopped: 0

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  OCT. CONTRACT: 22 NOTICE(S) FOR 2200 OZ  (0.0604 tonnes)  

 

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR THIS MONTH:  16,273 FOR 1,627,300 OZ  (50.615 TONNES) 

 

SILVER//OCT CONTRACT

9 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR  45,000   OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month 1811  :  for 9,055,000  oz

 

BITCOIN MORNING QUOTE  $59,567 UP 1747  DOLLARS 

 

BITCOIN AFTERNOON QUOTE.:$59,018 DOLLARS  UP 2296. 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

GLD AND SLV INVENTORIES:

GLD AND SLV INVENTORIES:

Gold

WITH GOLD DOWN $28.85AND NO PHYSICAL TO BE FOUND ANYWHERE:

A BIG  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.62  TONNES

OF GOLD 

 

WITH RESPECT TO GLD WITHDRAWALS:  (OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS)

 

GOLD IS “RETURNED” TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHEN CALLING IN THEIR LEASES: THE GOLD NEVER LEAVES THE BANK OF ENGLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BANK IS PROTECTING ITSELF IN CASE OF COMMERCIAL FAILURE

ALSO INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (phys) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//

THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD!!

GLD  980.10 TONNES OF GOLD//

Silver

AND WITH NO SILVER AROUND  TODAY: WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS

NO CHANGES  IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: 

 

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV

WITH REGARD TO SILVER WITHDRAWALS FROM THE SLV:

THE SILVER WITHRAWALS ARE ACTUALLY “RETURNED” TO JPM, AS JPMORGAN CALLS IN ITS LEASES WITH THE SLV FUND.  (THE STORY IS THE SAME AS THE BANK OF ENGLAND’S GOLD). THE SILVER NEVER LEAVES JPMORGAN’S VAULT. THEY ARE CALLING IN THEIR LEASES FOR FEAR OF SOLVENCY ISSUES.

INVENTORY RESTS AT: 

 

553.551  MILLION OZ./SLV

xxxxx

GLD closing price//NYSE 165.34 DOWN 2,66 OR 1.58%

XXXXXXXXXXXXX

SLV closing price NYSE 21.59 DOWN. 0.21 OR 0.96%

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

 
 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 
 
 

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A STRONG 1508 CONTRACTS TO 501,347, AND CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020. . WITH OUR $0.32 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX  ON THURSDAY.  OUR BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN(IT ROSE BY $0.32) , AND WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OUT ANY SILVER LONGS AS WE HAD A STRONG GAIN OF 3058 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.WE  ALSO HAD I) HUGE  BANKER SHORT COVERING AS THEY ARE VERY ANXIOUS TO GET OUT OF DODGE!!/WE ALSO HAD  SOME ii) REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//.   iii)  A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) A  STRONG INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 8.085 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S, 130,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP  / v), STRONG SIZED COMEX OI GAIN
 
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL:
 
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI SILVER TODAY: CONTRACTS + 171
 
SPREADING OPERATIONS(/NOW SWITCHING TO SILVER)

FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS:

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF NOV.

WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF SILVER

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

 

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT HEADING TOWARDS THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV, FOR SILVER:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (NOV), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

 
 
 
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS
 
 
OCT
 
ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF OCT:
 
8533 CONTACTS  for 12 days, total 8533 contracts or 42.66million oz…average per day:  711 contracts or 3.555 million oz per day.

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER: SO FAR THIS MONTH OF

OCT:  42.66 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON  

 

LAST 5 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: 140.120 MILLION OZ 

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

 

 
RESULT: , .. , WITH  OUR 32 CENT GAIN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX / THURSDAY WE HAD A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1508  CONTRACTS.THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 1550 CONTRACTS( 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR OCT AND  CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR DECEMBER) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS 1337
 
 
THE DOMINANT FEATURE TODAY:/TODAY WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 3058 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES AS WELL AS HUGE BANKER SHORTCOVERING AS THEY GET OUT OF DODGE/// WE HAVE A STRONG INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR OCT OF 8.085 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 130,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP
 
 

WE HAD 9 NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR 45,000 OZ

GOLD

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 532  CONTRACTS TO 501,347 ,,AND CLOSER TO  OUR NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110. 

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: -199  CONTRACTS.

THE HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI CAME WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $3.10///COMEX GOLD TRADING/THURSDAY.AS IN SILVER WE MUST HAVE HAD HUGE BANKER/ALGO SHORT COVERING ACCOMPANYING OUR FAIR SIZED EXCHANGE FOR  PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION  AS THE TOTAL GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES TOTALED 3388 CONTRACTS…..  WE ALSO HAD A GOOD INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR OCT AT 49.667 TONNES, FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S STRONG QUEUE. JUMP  OF 17,800 OZ//NEW TONNAGE STANDING:  51.489 TONNES 
 
 
 
 

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $3.10 WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY’S TRADING

 

WE HAD A VOLUME OF 0    4 -GC CONTRACTS//OPEN INTEREST  0//

WE HAD AN FAIR SIZED GAIN OF 3189  OI CONTRACTS (9.9 TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

 

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 2657 CONTRACTS:

CONTRACT  AND JULY:  0; AUGUST: 0 & DEC 6572  ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO//TOTAL: 2657 The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 501,347. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EXCHANGE DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE AN FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 3189 CONTRACTS: 532 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 2657 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 3388 CONTRACTS OR 10.538 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (5) ACCOMPANYING THE SMALL SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (532 OI): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES: 3189 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING ,2.) GOOD INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR SEPT. AT 49.667 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP  OF 17,800 OZ//NEW STANDING: 51.489 TONNES/ / 3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION,4) SMALL SIZED COMEX OI GAIN 5). FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL 

 
 
 
 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2021 INCLUDING TODAY

OCT

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF OCT : 25,614, CONTRACTS OR 2,561,400 oz OR 79.67 TONNES (12 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2134 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 12 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 79.67 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2020, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  79.67/3550 x 100% TONNES  2.25% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO DATE
 
JANUARY: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)
 
FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..
 
MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN///IT SURPASSED JANUARY!!)

 

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT:           79.67 TONNES

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 1508 CONTRACTS TO 144,510 AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  4 1/2 YEARS AGO.  

EFP ISSUANCE 1550 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

JULY 0  AND SEPT: 0; DEC 1550  ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  1550 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI GAIN OF 1508 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 1550 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,WE OBTAIN A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 3058 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

 

THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 15.29 MILLION  OZ, OCCURRED WITH OUR  $0.32 GAIN IN PRICE. 

 

 

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL..THE EVIDENCE IS CLEAR: HUGE AMOUNTS OF PHYSICAL STANDING FOR BOTH  SILVER AND GOLD .

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Gold

(Peter Schiff, Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,

 
 
 

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)FRIDAY MORNING/THURSDAY  NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 14.09 PTS OR .40%     //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 368.37 PTS OR 1.48% /The Nikkei closed UP 517.70 PTS OR 1.81%    //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.71%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP 6.4346   /Oil UP TO 82.10 dollars per barrel for WTI and UP TO 84.48 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN   /ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED  UP AT 6.4346 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.4338/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%/

 

 
 
 
 
3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

NORTH KOREA//USA/OUTLINE

END

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3 C CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

OUTLINE
 

COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 532 CONTRACTS TO 501M546 MOVING CLOSER TOTHE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020).  AND THIS COMEX INCREASE OCCURRED WITH OUR GAIN OF $3.10 IN GOLD PRICING THURSDAY’S COMEX TRADING.WE ALSO HAD A FAIR EFP ISSUANCE (2657 CONTRACTS). …AS THEY WERE PAID HANDSOMELY  NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AND SETTLE FOR CASH. LOOKS LIKE OUR BANKERS ARE FINALLY BAILING OUT!!

 

WE NORMALLY HAVE WITNESSED  EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS. IT SEEMS THAT ARE BANKERS FRIENDS ARE EXERCISING EFP’S FROM LONDON AND NOW THEY ARE LOATHE TO ISSUE NEW ONES.  

 

(SEE BELOW)

WE  HAD 0    4 -GC VOLUME//open interest REMAINS AT   0

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW MOVING TO THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 2657 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  ;: ,  OCT  :  & DEC.  2657 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:   2657 CONTRACTS 

 

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION,  EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: AN FAIR SIZED 3189  TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 2657 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A SMALL SIZED COMEX OI OF 532 CONTRACTS..WE HAVE A GOOD AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR OCT   (51.489),

 HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 8 MONTHS OF 20201:

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB. 113.424 TONNES

JAN: 6.500 TONNES.

 

TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR (JAN- SEPT): 423.205 TONNNES

 

THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT ROSE $3.10

AND THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING ANY LONGS AS THE TOTAL GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES REGISTERED 10.538 TONNES,ACCOMPANYING OUR GOOD GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR OCT (51.489 TONNES)…  I  STRONGLY BELIEVE THAT OUR BANKER FRIENDS ARE GETTING QUITE NERVOUS.   THEY ARE LOOKING OVER THEIR SHOULDERS AND WITNESSING MASSIVE SILVER/GOLD SHORTAGES THAT CANNOT BE COVERED. THEY ARE TRYING TO FLEE IN HASTE “FROM DODGE”.

WE HAD -XXX   CONTRACTS FROM COMEX TRADES. THESE WERE REMOVED AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT. 

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES :: 3388 CONTRACTS OR 338,800 OZ OR 10.538 TONNES

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT COMMODITY FUTURES OPEN INTEREST SHOULD APPROXIMATE 3% OF TOTAL PRODUCTION.  IN GOLD THE WORLD PRODUCES AROUND 3500 TONNES PER YEAR BUT ONLY 2200 TONNES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE WEST (THUS EXCLUDING RUSSIA, CHINA ETC..WHO KEEP 100% OF THEIR PRODUCT.
 
THUS IN GOLD WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:  501,347 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS X 100 OZ PER CONTRACT = 50.13 MILLION OZ/32,150 OZ PER TONNE =  15.59 TONNES

THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST REPRESENTS 1559/2200 OR 70.87% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF GOLD.

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX GOLD TODAY 199,009 contracts//    / volume//volume fair/

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY: 171,357 contracts//poor

 

// //most of our traders have left for London

 

OCT 15

/2021

 
INITIAL STANDINGS FOR OCT COMEX GOLD
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
 
44,113.120OZ
 
BRINKS
HBSC
Int. Delaware
 
includes
 
165 kilobars Brinks
 
and 201 kilobars
Int Delaware.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz
nil
OZ
 
 
 
 
 
 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz
 
 
 
 
NIL
 
oz
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
No of oz served (contracts) today
22  notice(s)
2200 OZ
 
0.0604 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)
281 contracts
28,100 oz
 
08740 TONNES
 
 
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
16,273 notices
1,627,300 OZ
50.615 TONNES
 
 
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz
 
 
 
We had 0 deposit into the dealer
 
 
 
 
total deposit: nil   oz 
 

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had  0 deposit into the customer account
 
 
TOTAL CUSTOMER DEPOSITS nil oz
 
 
 
We had 3  customer withdrawals
 
i)Out of Brinks:  5,304.920 oz (165 kilobars)
ii) Out of HSBC:  32,056.490 oz
iii) Out of Int. Delaware: 6751.710 o 
 
 
 
total customer withdrawals 44,113.120    oz
     
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

We had 2  kilobar transactions 2 out of  4 transactions)

ADJUSTMENTS 0//   dealer to customer//

i)Brinks:6400.64 oz

 

 
 
 
 
the front month of OCT. has an open interest of 303   contracts for a LOSS of 2215 contracts. We had 2393 notices served upon yesterday, so we GAINED 178 contracts or 17,800 oz will  stand for delivery in this active delivery month of October 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NOVEMBER GAINED 76 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 1142
.
DEC GAINED 1515  TO STAND AT 408,549
 

We had 22 notice(s) filed today for 2200  oz

FOR THE OCT 2021 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 22  contract(s) of which 0  notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 8  notices received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the OCT /2021. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (16,273) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  (OCT: 303 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today  22 x 100 oz per contract equals 1,655,400 OZ OR 51.489 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this active month of OCT.  

 

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the OCT contract month:

No of notices filed so far (16,273) x 100 oz+(303)  OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (22} x 100 oz} which equals 1,655,400 oz standing OR 51.489 TONNES in this  active delivery month of OCT.

We GAINED 178 contracts or an additional 17800 oz will stand for gold at the comex.

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING:  51.489 TONNES

 
 

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

404,814.366, oz NOW PLEDGED  march 5/2021/HSBC  12.59 TONNES

285,319.695 PLEDGED  MANFRA 8.8746 TONNES

298,568.054, oz  JPM  9.28 TONNES

1,149,631,831 oz pledged June 12/2020 Brinks/35.76 TONNES

160,865.707, oz Pledged August 21/regular account 4.164 tonnes JPMORGAN

41,127.478 oz International Delaware:  1.27 tonnes

LOOMIS:  18,615.429   0.57900

total pledged gold:  2,358,833.560oz                                     73.36 tonnes

 

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES…. WE HAVE 476.46 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS 51.489 tonnes

CALCULATION OF REGISTERED THAT CAN BE SETTLED UPON:

 

total registered or dealer  17,670,716.698 oz or 549.63 tonnes
 
 
 
total weight of pledged: 2,358,833.560   oz                                     73.37 tonnes
 
 
 
registered gold that can be used to settle upon: 15,311,883.0 (476.26 tonnes) 
 
 
 
 
true registered gold  (total registered – pledged tonnes15,311,883.0 (476.26 tonnes)   
 
 
total eligible gold: 16,116,501.845 oz   (501.29 tonnes)
 
 
 
total registered, pledged  and eligible (customer) gold  33,787,218.543 oz or 1,050.92 tonnes
 (INCLUDES 4 GC GOLD)
 
 

total 4 GC gold:   126.34 tonnes

total gold net of 4 GC:  924.58 tonnes

end

 
 

I have compiled  data with respect to registered (or dealer) gold taken on first day notice for each of the past 24 months

The data begins on first day notice for the May month taken on the last day of July 2018. and it continues to present day.

I then took, how many deliveries were recorded by the CME for each and every month.  I also included for reference the price of gold on first day notice.

The first graph is a logarithmic  graph and the second graph, linear.

You can see the huge explosion of registered gold at the comex along with deliveries.

 
 
THE DATA AND GRAPHS:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
END

OCT 15/2021

And now for the wild silver comex results

INITIAL STANDING FOR SILVER//OCT

Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
639,943.94  oz
 
CNT
JPMorgan
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil OZ
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
 
 
978.200 oz
Delaware
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
No of oz served today (contracts)
9
 
CONTRACT(S)
45,000  OZ)
 
No of oz to be served (notices)
94 contracts
 470,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  1811 contracts

 

9,055,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
 
We had 0 deposit into the dealer
 

total dealer deposits:  nil        oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had  1 deposits into customer account (ELIGIBLE ACCOUNT)

i) Into Delaware:  978.200 oz

 
 

JPMorgan now has 181.463 million oz  silver inventory or 50.68% of all official comex silver. (181.463 million/357.609 million

total customer deposits today 978.200   oz

we had 2 withdrawals

i)out of CNT:  619,999.640

 

iii) Out of JPM  19,944.300 oz

 

 

total withdrawal   638m943.94        oz

 

adjustments:   0
 
 
 

Total dealer(registered) silver: 98.501 million oz

total registered and eligible silver:  357.609 million oz

a net   0.629 million oz leaves  the comex silver vaults.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 
 
For October, we have an open interest of 103 contracts for a LOSS OF 25. we had 51 notices filed upon yesterday so we gained 26 contract or an additional 130,000 oz will  stand for delivery at the comex 
 
 
 

NOVEMBER GAINED 12 TO STAND AT 943  

DEC GAINED 850 CONTRACTS UP TO 119,576

 
NO. OF NOTICES FILED: 9  FOR 45,000 OZ.

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in OCT. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at  1811 x 5,000 oz =9,055,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT (103) and the number of notices served upon today 9 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the  standings for silver for the OCT./2021 contract month: 1811 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of OCT(103)  – number of notices served upon today (9) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the OCT contract month .equals 9,525,000 oz. .

We gained 26 contract or an additional 130,000 oz will stand for delivery in this non active delivery month of OCTOBER.

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME  52,771 CONTRACTS // volume weak 

 

FOR YESTERDAY 57,997 contracts  ,CONFIRMED VOLUME/ weak

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV  RISES TO -3.06% (OCT 15/2021)

SILVER FUND POSITIVE TO NAV

No of oz of physical silver held:  Oct 1/2021   151,927,020 ( a gain of 1.001 MILLION OZ IN TWO MONTHS

no of oz of physical silver held  JULY 8.2021;  150,926,000  (GAIN OF 6.411 MILLION OZ IN 2 MONTHS)

No of oz of physical silver held; MAY 24/2021  144,515,694 OZ

No. of oz of physical silver held:  Sept 20/20: 85,907.3616  Oz

No of oz pf physical silver held: Dec 21/2019:  65,073.570 Oz

During the past 12 months Sprott has added: 66.02 MILLION OZ OCT 4-SEPT 20)

 

2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV FALLS TO -1.65% nav   (OCT 15)/2021 )

 

3. SPROTT CEF .A   FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA)

NAV $17.91 TRADING 17.20//NEGATIVE  3.95

 

END

 

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/(this vehicle is a fraud as there is no gold behind them

OCT 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $28.85 TODAY; A HUGE  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A WITHDRAWAL 1.62 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 980.10 TONNES.

OCT 14/WITH GOLD UP $3.10 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 982.72 TONNES

 

OCT 13/WITH GOLD UP $35.35 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.82 TONNES FROM LAST FRIDAY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 982.72 TONNES

OCT 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.90 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 986.54 TONNES

OCT 6/WITH GOLD UP $.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 986.54 TONNES

OCT 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.30 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 986.54 TONNES

OCT 4/WITH GOLD UP $5.90 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.49 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 986.54 TONNES

OCT 1/WITH GOLD UP $3.70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 990.03 TONNES

SPET 30.//WITH GOLD UP $32.75 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 990.03 TONNES

SEPT 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.70 TODAY: A SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .29 TONNES FROM THE GLD//

INVENTORY RESTS AT 990.03 TONNES

SEPT 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A WIHTDRAWAL OF 3.2 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 990.32 TONNES

SEPT 27/WITH GOLD UP $.95 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 993.52 TONNES

SEPT 24/WITH GOLD $1.15 DOLLARS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 8.14 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 992.65 TONNES

SEPT 23/WITH GOLD DOWN $28.20 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1000.79 TONNES

SEPT 22/WITH GOLD UP $.55 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1000.79 TONNES

SEPT 21/WITH GOLD UP $14.20 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1000.79 TONNES

SEPT 20/WITH GOLD UP $10.00 TODAY;A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.74 TONNES FOF GOLD INTO THE GLD/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1000.79 TONNES/

SEPT 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.60 TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .29 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 999.21 TONNES/

SEPT 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.90 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1000.21 TONNES

SEPT 14/WITH GOLD UP $12,90 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.04 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1000.21 TONNES

SEPTEMBER 13//WITH GOLD UP $1.70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 998.17 TONNES

SEPTEMBER 10//WITH GOLD DOWN $7.40//A SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD”: A WITHDRAWAL OF .35 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 998.17

SEPT 9/WITH GOLD UP $7.10 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 998.52 TONNES/

SEPT 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.90 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 998.52 TONNES

SEPT 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $35.35 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY REST AT 998.52 TONNES.

SEPT 3/WITH GOLD UP $22.00 TODAY: A HUGE  CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .74 TONNES FROM THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 999.52 TONNES

SEPT 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.45 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1000.26 TONNES

SEPT 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00 TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.46 TONNES FORM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1000.26 TONNES.

 
 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Inventory rests tonight at:

 

OCT 15 / GLD INVENTORY 980,10 tonnes

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them!)

OCT 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY; NO  CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 553.551 MILLION OZ/

OCT 14/WITH SILVER UP 32 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 7.406 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 553.551 MILLION OZ//

OCT 13/WITH SILVER UP 64 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A LOSS OF 3.796 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV SINCE FRIDAY NIGHT///INVENTORY RESTS AT 546.145 MILLION OZ/

OCT 7/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 549.941 MILLION OZ/

OCT 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 549.941 MILLION OZ 

OCT 5/ WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE  IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 503,000 OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 549.941 MILLION OZ

OCT 4/WITH  SILVER UP 1 CENT TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 8.425 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 549.438 MILLION OZ/

OCT 1/WITH  SILVER UP 52 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 541.013 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 30/WITH SILVER UP 54 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 541.013 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 98 CENTS TODAY// A SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A WITHDRAWAL OF .509,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/ INVENTORY RESTS AT 541.013 MILLION OZ

SEPT 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.982 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 541.522 MILLION OZ

SEPT 27/WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.204 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 545.504 MILLION OZ

SEPT 24/WITH SILVER DOWN 26 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 546.708 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 509,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 546.708 MILLION OZ///

SEPT 22/WITH SILVER UP 30 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/

INVENTORY RESTS AT 547.217 MILLION OZ/./

SEPT 21/WITH SILVER UP 39 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.624 MILLION OZ.

SEPT 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.624 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 45 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.624 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.624 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 14/WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.11 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.624 MILLION OZ

SEPT 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 12 CENTS; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.131MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 545.735 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 10 WITH SILVER DOWN 26 CENTS; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 547.866 MILLION OZ..

SEPT 9/ WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 547.866 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 8/WITH SILVE DOWN 30 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.037 MILLION OF FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 547.866 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 32 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 549.903 MILLION OZ.

SEPT 3/WITH SILVER UP 83 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 549.903 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 29 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 977,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 549.903 MILLION OZ

SEPT 1/WITH SILVER UP 20 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 550.880 MILLION OZ.

 

 
 

OCT 15/2021  SLV INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 553.551 MILLION OZ

 

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

PETER SCHIFF

 

end

EGON VON GREYERZ//MATHEW PIEPENBERG/JIM RICKARDS/PAM AND RUSS MARTENS

JAMES RICKARDS

“The Revenge Of The Fossil Fuels”

 
FRIDAY, OCT 15, 2021 – 10:50 AM

Authored by James Rickards via DailyReckoning.com,

What have the climate alarmists been screaming about for the past 40 years or so? Their agenda is well-known. They want to close nuclear plants; shut down coal electric generators; eliminate natural gas and oil-fired electrical plants; and substitute wind, solar and hydropower in their place.

According to the fanatics, this substitution of renewable energy sources for so-called “fossil fuels” and uranium-powered plants would reduce CO2 emissions and save the planet from the existential threat of global warming.

Everything about this climate alarmist agenda is a fraud.

The evidence that the planet is warming is slight and the effect is likely temporary with global cooling in the forecast. The contribution of CO2 emissions to any global warming is not clear and is at best unsettled science and at worst another fraud.

Most importantly, global energy demand is growing much faster than renewables can come online, meaning that oil, natural gas, clean coal and nuclear energy will be needed whether renewables grow or not.

Wind and Solar Won’t Cut It

Wind turbines and solar panels cannot be the backbone of a modern energy grid because they are intermittent sources. Wind turbines require continual wind and solar panels require continual sunlight. Turbines don’t produce when the wind stops. Solar panels don’t produce at night or on cloudy days.

I have firsthand experience with this because I once built the largest off-grid noncommercial solar panel array in New England. You learn quickly to do laundry, run the dishwasher and use other high-energy electrical appliances on sunny days because you’ll need to conserve your batteries through the snow and rain.

A grid can’t run on intermittent sources; it needs continuous sources of energy that only come from oil, gas, coal and nuclear.

Despite these scientific and practical hurdles, the climate alarmists have been very effective politically. Many countries such as Germany and Japan have shut down nuclear and coal plants in an effort to substitute renewables in major industrial economies.

Now the day of reckoning has arrived.

Billions of People Freezing in the Dark

China is quickly running out of electrical-generating capacity. China gets more than 50% of its electricity from coal, but it is running out of coal. China has had to lift its ban on Australian coal imports (arising from a dispute about tracing the source of the COVID outbreak) and it’s now taking as much Australian coal as it can get.

A similar situation exists in Germany where the failure of renewables to provide a reliable source of supply combined with a shutdown of nuclear plants have led to dependence on Russian natural gas.

Putin is slowly closing the taps to increase Europe’s desperation. The price of natural gas in Europe is skyrocketing. In Lebanon, the two power plants that supply 40% of that country’s electricity have shut down due to oil shortages. There is no electricity and probably won’t be for days.

Many will die this winter as power outages spread and as heating systems fail. The global economy will also suffer due to decreased output as China and Europe both close factories in order to conserve electricity for homes.

This is what the climate alarm fanatics have produced — billions of people freezing in the dark and a slowing global economy — all in pursuit of the false dogma of global warming.

Thanks, Biden

It turns out the world still needs fossil fuels, and lots of them. “Green” energy just isn’t ready for prime time, and probably won’t be for decades.

The International Energy Agency has said that if the world hopes to meet a net-zero carbon emissions target in 2050, it should stop investing in oil, gas and coal production now.

The Biden administration, along with European leaders primarily, has sought to cripple the fossil fuel industries while incentivizing wind and solar. The result is serious underinvestment in oil and natural gas exploration.

As journalist Noah Rothman writes, you can point a finger at policymakers:

The intended consequence of these [Biden] policies was to create artificial energy scarcity and incentivize alternative fuel producers to enter the marketplace. “If you restrict the supply (of oil and gas), you alter the market and you create a better environment for more sustainable fuels,” New York University professor Max Sarinsky told The Associated Press. This was all part of the plan, to the extent there was a plan.

So yes, there’s a lot of blame to go around if… a dark, cold and scary winter materializes. No small share of that blame should be apportioned out to the central planners who sought to kneecap the existing energy market in favor of an insufficient alternative.

As our senior analyst, Dan Amoss, affirms:

If predictions of oil’s demise are off the mark by a decade or three, there will be very painful, real-world consequences in the form of underinvestment in the oil patch. Underinvestment in oil projects as oil companies chase wind and solar could lead to trade-crippling, market-crashing gasoline and diesel prices.

“This Is the Revenge of the Fossil Fuels”

The ironic part, as others have noted, is that the suppression of oil, natural gas and nuclear energy has led to a dramatic increase in the dirtiest fossil fuel of all — coal. As Bloomberg reports:

For nearly a decade, it appeared in terminal decline as investors shunned miners and European countries shut down coal-fired power plants.

And yet the world’s dirtiest fossil fuel won’t go away. Global consumption peaked in 2014, but rather than fall rapidly, as many expected, it stabilized in a gentle plateau. And now, just as the fight against climate change intensifies, it’s growing again, with the resurgence largely driven by China.

“This is the revenge of the fossil fuels,” said Thierry Bros, an energy expert and professor in Paris.

So much for the Great Reset and “building back better.”

This is just another example of how bureaucratic central planning often backfires and produces the very outcome it’s supposed to prevent. You can look to the endless five-year plans of the Soviet Union for examples.

And it’s even worse at the global level because there’s no escape valve. Countries must follow the same policies, no matter how destructive they turn out to be.

As With Vaccine Dissent, Google Bans Climate Dissent

It’s all part of the climate change hysteria that global elites have embraced. And of course, Big Tech is all too eager to suppress dissent.

The Big Tech companies have suppressed information about the widespread side effects and several thousand deaths of the experimental gene-therapy COVID vaccines. These companies have become censors.

Now they’re extending the practice to climate change…

Google is banning ads featuring content that contradict what it considers “inaccurate” information on climate change and will no longer allow ad revenue to come from them.

“Inaccurate” information includes content such as “denying that long-term trends show the global climate is warming, and claims denying that greenhouse gas emissions or human activity contribute to climate change.”

But as I explained earlier, the science is far from settled. The best data indicates that carbon dioxide has a limited warming effect, and that the planet may be approaching a cooling trend.

And just as Google has relied on the WHO and CDC for information about COVID and the vaccines (which have often proven disastrously wrong), Google will rely on climate information from “authoritative sources.”

In other words, from sources like the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which has been a major source of climate alarmism.

Unfortunately, these dangerous climate policies are having real-world consequences. I can only imagine how many people they will kill.

OR LAWRIE WILLIAMS

LAWRIE WILLIAMS: Gold and silver

-END-

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

Your weekend reading material

Alasdair Macleod….

Alasdair Macleod: The stagflation myth

 

 

 Section: Daily Dispatches

 

By Alasdair Macleod
GoldMoney, Toronto
Thursday, October 14, 2021

Describing evolving inflationary conditions as stagflation misses the point about today’s inflationary conditions. Stagflation was originally used only in the context of excessive wage increases not matched by improved trading prospects. Just in that narrow sense, today we are experiencing stagflation.

But in the wider context inflationary conditions being described as stagflation are not stagflation at all. They are the consequences of increased money supply undermining the purchasing power of currencies — an extremely dangerous economic condition that, unless it is fully checked, leads to the destruction of a fiat currency.

In the UK and elsewhere politicians are claiming that higher wages for the low paid are needed to get them back to work. Without an increase in productivity, it amounts to a recommendation in favour of stagflation. But in measuring stagnating production, politicians and economists alike are being misled by estimates of individual productivity by the OECD, which produces the basic statistics.

This article demonstrates the incorrect assumptions behind the OECD’s calculations on productivity and why it is not the function of governments to attempt to manage it. If governments are to do anything positive, it should be to cut employment taxes and stop interfering.

The reader less interested in the abuse of labour and production statistics might like to skip the section on the OECD’s approach to productivity for the brief update on the wider evolution of global hyperinflation later in the article. …

… For the remainder of the commentary:

https://www.goldmoney.com/research/goldmoney-insights/the-stagflation-myth?gmrefcode=gata

* * *

end

OTHER IMPORTANT GOLD/ECONOMIC COMMENTARIES

OTHER COMMODITIES//ZINC

Zinc hits a 14 year high as European smelters halve their output due to energy crunch

(zerohedge)

LME Zinc Hits 14-Year High As European Smelters Halve Output Amid Energy Crunch 

 
FRIDAY, OCT 15, 2021 – 04:15 AM

The energy crisis is bleeding into other parts of the commodity space, such as industrial metals, as smelters from Asia to Europe are knocked offline, resulting in a tightening supply with prices for zinc at 14-year highs. 

Zinc jumped as much as 7% on the London Metal Exchange to the highest levels since 2007 after producer Nyrstar announced plans to halve output at three European smelters due to soaring energy prices. 

“It is zinc’s turn” to surge as the energy crisis spreads through Europe and forces large-scale shutdowns or production cuts at smelters, said Jia Zheng, a trader with Shanghai Dongwu Jiuying Investment Management Co. She said soaring coal and natural gas prices have made power prices astronomically high and uneconomical for energy-intensive smelting plants to produce the industrial metal. 

China has already curbed power to energy-intensive zinc and aluminum smelting plants amid an energy crunch fueled by record-high coal prices. In total, 20 Chinese provinces and regions making up more than 66% of the country’s GDP have announced some form of power cuts. 

Industrial metal prices may stay high as the energy crisis continues to ravage Asia and Europe, researcher Shanghai Metals Market told clients in a note. According to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group, a surplus in global zinc will be whittled down in 2022 due to the latest production cuts. 

“If production were to be reduced for any prolonged period, this would presumably have a massive impact on the zinc market, which would then no doubt be seriously undersupplied,” Daniel Briesemman, an analyst at Commerzbank, wrote in a note. “The price response certainly makes sense against this backdrop.”

The market is concerned about the industrial metal supply, reflected in a record high for the CRB BLS U.S. raw industrials spot index. 

Industrial metal prices have historically held strong correlations with inflation. 

The latest price surge only suggests this is another loss for “team transitory” as inflation is set to stick around through the winter and into early 2022. 

CRYPTOCURRENCIES/
Bitcoin according to a Bank of England could trigger a financial meltdown.
(Phil Inman)

Bitcoin could trigger financial meltdown, warns Bank of England deputy

Sir Jon Cunliffe likens danger to 2008 crash and calls for tough regulation of cryptocurrencies

Bitcoin
Cryptocurrency coins have grown in value by about 200% this year, from just under $800bn to $2.3tn, and have risen from $16bn five years ago. Photograph: Ozan Köse/AFP/Getty Images
 
Wed 13 Oct 2021 17.48 BST
 
 

 

A senior Bank of England policymaker has warned that digital currencies such as bitcoin could trigger a financial meltdown unless governments step forward with tough regulations.

Likening the growth of cryptocurrencies to the spiralling value of US sub-prime mortgages before the 2008 financial crash, the deputy governor Sir Jon Cunliffe said there was danger financial markets could be rocked in a few years by an event of similar magnitude.

 

Bitcoin and its nearest rival, Ethereum, tumbled in value earlier this year but have recovered ground to reach towards all-time highs. Only five years ago a single bitcoin was worth about $700 (£513) compared with $56,000 (£41,000) today. Ethereum has almost doubled in value since July to $3,500.

Cunliffe has played a central role in monitoring cryptocurrencies over recent years as an adviser to the G20’s financial stability board and the central banks’ overarching advisory body, the Geneva-based Bank of International Settlements.

A highly respected former Whitehall mandarin with contacts in political and central bank circles, his warning is likely to grab the attention of senior treasury officials in the UK, Washington and Tokyo.

Cryptocurrency coins have grown in value by about 200% this year, from just under $800bn to $2.3tn, and have risen from $16bn five years ago.

Cunliffe said that while the finance industry was more robust than in 2008 and that governments should be wary of overreacting to financial innovations, there were reasons to be concerned about traders using digital currencies that could be worthless overnight.

“Of course $2.3tn needs to be seen in the context of the $250tn global financial system. But as the financial crisis showed us, you don’t have to account for a large proportion of the financial sector to trigger financial stability problems – sub-prime was valued at about $1.2tn in 2008,” he said.

Speculation in sub-prime mortgages in the US was driven by low-income households using mortgages with ultra-low interest rates.

Cunliffe said there was evidence that speculators were beginning to borrow money to buy crypto assets, heightening the risk of a crash infecting the broader financial system.

 

At the moment surveys suggested that spending on cryptocurrencies was backed with only about $40bn of borrowed funds. But there was evidence traders were increasingly speculating on the future value of digital currencies.

He said traders on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange were handling $2bn of crypto purchases a day and the popularity of futures trading was attracting hedge funds and other speculators.

“The bulk of these assets have no intrinsic value and are vulnerable to major price corrections. The crypto world is beginning to connect to the traditional financial system and we are seeing the emergence of leveraged players. And, crucially, this is happening in largely unregulated space,” Cunliffe said.

“Financial stability risks currently are relatively limited but they could grow very rapidly if, as I expect, this area continues to develop and expand at pace. How large those risks could grow will depend in no small part on the nature and on the speed of the response by regulatory and supervisory authorities,” he added.

There was also a growing conflict between the need to develop standards in “a painstaking, careful process” and the rapid growth of digital trading.

Cunliffe said guidance drafted by the bodies that regulate global financial markets had taken two years to write, during which time trading platforms for digital currencies had expanded sixteen fold.

 

 
end

Cryptos Surge On News SEC “Set To Allow” Bitcoin Futures ETF

 
FRIDAY, OCT 15, 2021 – 12:29 AM

There was some speculation today that the long-awaited SEC decision on a futures-based bitcoin ETF was imminent, which is what sparked the earlier surge in the crypto sector. Said speculation got only stronger after earlier in the day, the SEC tweeted out an  education bulletin the agency wrote in June about bitcoin futures and “funds that hold bitcoin futures.” As Bloomberg’s resident in house crypto expert put it, this was “clearly good sign and we upping our [bitcoin ETF] odds to 85% but until I see ProShares’ updated post-effective prospectus his EDGS, I’m not calling it.”

He probably should have called it because late on Thursday, Bloomberg reported what so many crypto faithful had been waiting for the past 7 years, namely that the SEC is “poised to allow the first U.S. Bitcoin futures exchange-traded fund to begin trading in a watershed moment for the cryptocurrency industry.”

According to the report, the SEC isn’t likely to block the products from starting to trade next week. Furthermore, as reported previously, unlike Bitcoin ETF applications that the regulator has previously rejected, “the proposals by ProShares and Invesco Ltd. are based on futures contracts and were filed under mutual fund rules that SEC Chairman Gary Gensler has said provide “significant investor protections.”

So barring “a last-minute reversal”, the fund launch will be the culmination of a nearly decade-long campaign by the $6.7 trillion ETF industry to begin allocating some capital to the best performing asset class/currency/commodity of the past decade.

Advocates have sought approval as a confirmation of mainstream acceptance of cryptocurrencies since Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, the twins best known for their part in the history of Facebook Inc., filed the first application for a Bitcoin ETF in 2013.

The long wait is coming to a favorable outcome after years of stumbles with the SEC previously rejecting bitcoin ETF on the grounds that the crypto space is plagued with investor hazards. The SEC had also expressed concern that prices could be manipulated and liquidity might be insufficient, and that Bitcoin’s drastic price swings may be too much for individual investors. Of course, for most investors the volatility is worth the returns: Bitcoin’s last three full-year returns were a 74% loss followed by gains of 95% and 305%. Additionally, the SEC has questioned whether funds would have the information necessary to adequately value cryptocurrencies or related products. There have also been questions about validating ownership of the coins held by funds and the threat from hackers.

But the mood shifted in August, when Gensler – who previously showed extensive interest in the crypto world having once taught a class at MIT’s Sloan School of Management called “Blockchain and Money” – signaled he’d favor funds based on CME-traded Bitcoin futures filed under a 1940s law. He reiterated that stance late last month.

Gensler’s openness led to a wave of futures-backed filings and unbridled optimism among issuers that approval could be imminent, and helped lift the price of bitcoin from the low/mid-$40,000s to above $50,000 in recent days, surging to its highest level since May this week, ultimately doubling from its price reached in late July when it briefly dipped below $30,000.

That said, the initial capital reallocation will likely be modest. According to Balchunas, such futures-based ETFs are “flawed because rolling futures and will prob not sweep the nation.” His guess is only. 3-4b in first year (1% of ETF flows).” But, in any event, this is “def a BIG step after 7yr wait.”

Balchunas also made a prediction which Bitcoin ETF will get to the market first, a list which is headed by the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF and goes from there.

News of the imminent bitcoin ETF sent bitcoin and the broader crypto space sharply higher when it hit just after 10pm ET on Thursday.

 

 

Your early THURSDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results, important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs usa dollar/CLOSED UP 6.4346  

 

//OFFSHORE YUAN 6.4338  /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 14,09 PTS OR .40% 

 

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 368.37 PTS OR 1.48% 

 

2. Nikkei closed UP 517.70 PTS OR 1.81%  

 

3. Europe stocks  ALL GREEN

 

USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO  93.97/Euro RISES TO 1.1602

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.081/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 111.47/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

3c Nikkei now JUST ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 82.10 and Brent: 84.98

3f Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE CLOSED UP//  OFF- SHORE:UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO -.16%/Italian 10 Yr bond yield FALLS to 0.87% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD FALLS TO 0.46%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.03: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 0.904

3k Gold at $1774.90 silver at: 23.16   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 17/100 in roubles/dollar) 71.22

3m oil into the 82 dollar handle for WTI and  84 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 114.33 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9247 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 1.0729 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to 0.169%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 1.544% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.051%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 9.24..  VERY DEADLY

Futures Jump On Profit Optimism As Oil Tops $85; Bitcoin Nears $60,000

 
FRIDAY, OCT 15, 2021 – 07:50 AM

One day after the S&P posted its biggest one-day surge since March, index futures extended this week’s gains, helped by a stellar bank earnings, while the latest labor market data and inflation eased stagflation fears for the time being. . The 10-year Treasury yield rose and the dollar was steady. Goldman Sachs reports on Friday. At 715 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were up 147 points, or 0.42%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 16.5 points, or 0.37%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 42.75 points, or 0.28%.

Oil futures topped $85/bbl, jumping to their highest in three years amid an energy crunch that’s stoking inflationary pressures and prices for raw materials. A gauge of six industrial metals hit a record high on the London Metal Exchange.  Energy firms including Chevron and Exxon gained about half a percent each, tracking Brent crude prices that scaled the 3 year high.

Solid earnings in the reporting season are tempering fears that rising costs and supply-chain snarls will hit corporate balance sheets and growth. At the same time, the wider debate about whether a stagflation-like backdrop looms remains unresolved.

“We don’t sign up to the stagflation narrative that is doing the rounds,” said Hugh Gimber, global strategist at the perpetually optimistic J.P. Morgan Asset Management. “The economy is being supported by robust consumer balance sheets, rebounding business investment and a healthy labor market.”

“After a choppy start to the week, equity markets appear to be leaning towards a narrative that companies can continue to grow profits, despite the combined pressures of higher energy prices and supply chain disruptions,” said Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets in London.

Bitcoin and the crypto sector jumped after Bloomberg reported late on Thursday that the Securities and Exchange Commission is poised to allow the first U.S. Bitcoin futures exchange-traded fund to begin trading in a watershed moment for the cryptocurrency industry. Bitcoin traded off session highs having tested $60k during Asian hours, but will likely rise to new all time highs shortly.

Also overnight, Joe Biden signed a bill providing a short-term increase in the debt limit, averting the imminent threat of a financial calamity. But it only allows the Treasury Department to meets its financial obligations until roughly Dec. 3, so the can has been kicked for less than two months – brace for more bitter partisan battles in the coming weeks.

This week’s move into rate-sensitive FAAMG growth names looked set to continue, with their shares inching up. Moderna rose 3.0% after a U.S. FDA panel voted to recommend booster shots of its COVID-19 vaccine for Americans aged 65 and older and high-risk people. Western Digital slipped 2.5% as Goldman Sachs downgraded the storage hardware maker’s stock to “neutral” from “buy”. Here are some of the key premarket movers on Friday morning:

  • Virgin Galactic (SPCE US) shares slump as much as 23% in U.S. premarket trading as the firm is pushing the start of commercial flights further into next year after rescheduling a test flight, disappointing investors with the unexpected delay to its space tourism business plans
  • Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks rise in U.S. premarket trading after a report that the Securities and Exchange Commission is poised to allow the first U.S. Bitcoin futures exchange-traded fund to begin trading.  Bit Digital (BTBT US) +6.7%, Riot Blockchain (RIOT US) +4.6%, Marathon Digital (MARA US) +3.6%
  • Alcoa (AA US) shares jump 5.6% in thin volumes after co. reported profits that beat the average analyst estimate and said it will be paying a dividend to its shareholders
  • Moderna (MRNA US) extends Thursday’s gains; Piper Sandler recommendation on Moderna Inc. to overweight from neutral, a day after co.’s Covid-19 booster got FDA nod for use in older, high-risk people
  • Duck Creek Technologies (DCT US) shares fell 12% in Thursday postmarket trading after the software company projected 2022 revenue that fell short of the average analyst estimate
  • 23andMe Holdings (ME US) soared 14% in Thursday postmarket trading after EMJ Capital founder Eric Jackson called the genetics testing company “the next Roku” on CNBC
  • Corsair Gaming (CRSR US) shares fell 3.7% in post-market trading after it cut its net revenue forecast for the full year

Early on Friday, China’s PBOC broke its silence on Evergrande, saying risks to the financial system are controllable and unlikely to spread. Authorities and local governments are resolving the situation, central bank official Zou Lan said. The bank has asked lenders to keep credit to the real estate sector stable and orderly.

In Europe, gains for banks, travel companies and carmakers outweighed losses for utilities and telecommunications industries, pushing the Stoxx Europe 600 Index up 0.3%. Telefonica fell 3.3%, the most in more than four months, after Barclays cut the Spanish company to underweight. Temenos and Pearson both slumped more than 10% after their business updates disappointed investors. Here are some of the biggest European movers today:

  • Devoteam shares rise as much as 25% after its controlling shareholder, Castillon, increased its stake in the IT consulting group to 85% and launched an offer for the remaining capital.
  • QinetiQ rises as much as 5.4% following a plunge in the defense tech company’s stock on Thursday. Investec upgraded its recommendation to buy and Berenberg said the shares now look oversold.
  • Hugo Boss climbs as much as 4.4% to the highest level since September 2019 after the German apparel maker reported 3Q results that exceeded expectations. Jefferies (hold) noted the FY guidance hike also was bigger than expected.
  • Mediclinic rises as much as 7.7% to highest since May 26 after 1H results, which Morgan Stanley says showed strong underlying operating performance with “solid metrics.”
  • Temenos sinks as much as 14% after the company delivered a “mixed bag” with its 3Q results, according to Baader (sell). Weakness in Europe raises questions about the firm’s outlook for a recovery in the region, the broker said.
  • Pearson declines as much as 12%, with analysts flagging weaker trading in its U.S. higher education courseware business in its in-line results.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks headed for their best week in more than a month amid a list of positive factors including robust U.S. earnings, strong results at Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. and easing home-loan restrictions in China.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained as much as 1.3%, pushing its advance this week to more than 1.5%, the most since the period ended Sept. 3. Technology shares provided much of the boost after chip giant TSMC announced fourth-quarter guidance that beat analysts’ expectations and said it will build a fabrication facility for specialty chips in Japan.

Shares in China rose as people familiar with the matter said the nation loosened restrictions on home loans at some of its largest banks.  Conditions are good for tech and growth shares now long-term U.S. yields have fallen following inflation data this week, Shogo Maekawa, a strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management in Tokyo. “If data going forward are able to provide an impression that demand is strong too — on top of a sense of relief from easing supply chain worries — it’ll be a reason for share prices to take another leap higher.”  Asia’s benchmark equity gauge is still 10% below its record-high set in February, as analysts stay on the lookout for higher bond yields and the impact of supply-chain issues on profit margins. 

Japanese stocks rose, with the Topix halting a three-week losing streak, after Wall Street rallied on robust corporate earnings. The Topix rose 1.9% to close at 2,023.93, while the Nikkei 225 advanced 1.8% to 29,068.63. Keyence Corp. contributed the most to the Topix’s gain, increasing 3.7%. Out of 2,180 shares in the index, 1,986 rose and 155 fell, while 39 were unchanged. For the week, the Topix climbed 3.2% and the Nikkei added 3.6%. Semiconductor equipment and material makers rose after TSMC said it will build a fabrication facility for specialty chips in Japan and plans to begin production there in late 2024.  U.S. index futures held gains during Asia trading hours. The contracts climbed overnight after a report showed applications for state unemployment benefits fell last week to the lowest since March 2020.  “U.S. initial jobless claims fell sharply, and have returned to levels seen before the spread of the coronavirus,” said Nobuhiko Kuramochi, a market strategist at Mizuho Securities in Tokyo. “The fact that more people are returning to their jobs will help ease supply chain problems caused by the lack of workers.”

Australian stocks also advanced, posting a second week of gains. The S&P/ASX 200 index rose 0.7% to close at 7,362.00, with most sectors ending higher.  The benchmark added 0.6% since Monday, climbing for a second week. Miners capped their best week since July 16 with a 3% advance. Hub24 jumped on Friday after Evans & Partners upgraded the stock to positive from neutral. Pendal Group tumbled after it reported net outflows for the fourth quarter of A$2.3 billion. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index fell 0.3% to 13,012.19

In rates, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose over 3bps to 1.54%. Treasuries traded heavy across long-end of the curve into early U.S. session amid earning-driven gains for U.S. stock futures. Yields are higher by more than 3bp across long-end of the curve, 10- year by 2.8bp at about 1.54%, paring its first weekly decline since August; weekly move has been led by gilts and euro-zone bonds, also under pressure Friday, with U.K. 10-year yields higher by 3.3bp. Today’s bear-steepening move pares the weekly bull-flattening trend. U.S. session features a packed economic data slate and speeches by Fed’s Bullard and Williams.  

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed even as the greenback weakened against most of its Group-of-10 peers; the euro hovered around $1.16 while European and U.S. yields rose, led by the long end. Norway’s krone led G-10 gains as oil jumped to $85 a barrel for the first time since late 2018 amid the global energy crunch; the currency rallied by as much as 0.6% to 8.4015 per dollar, the strongest level since June. New Zealand’s dollar advanced to a three-week high as bets on RBNZ’s tightening momentum build ahead of Monday’s inflation data; the currency is outperforming all G-10 peers this week. The yen dropped to a three-year low as rising equities in Asia damped demand for low-yielding haven assets. China’s offshore yuan advanced to its highest in four months while short-term borrowing costs eased after the central bank added enough medium-term funds into the financial system to maintain liquidity at existing levels.

In commodities, crude futures trade off best levels. WTI slips back below $82, Brent fades after testing $85. Spot gold slips back through Thursday’s lows near $1,786/oz. Base metals extend the week’s rally with LME nickel and zinc gaining over 2%.

Today’s retail sales report, due at 08:30 a.m. ET, is expected to show retail sales fell in September amid continued shortages of motor vehicles and other goods. The data will come against the backdrop of climbing oil prices, labor shortages and supply chain disruptions, factors that have rattled investors and have led to recent choppiness in the market.

Looking at the day ahead now, and US data releases include September retail sales, the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index for October, and the Empire State manufacturing survey for October. Central bank speakers include the Fed’s Bullard and Williams, and earnings releases include Charles Schwab and Goldman Sachs.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.3% to 4,443.75
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.4% to 467.66
  • German 10Y yield up 2.4 bps to -0.166%
  • Euro little changed at $1.1608
  • MXAP up 1.3% to 198.33
  • MXAPJ up 1.2% to 650.02
  • Nikkei up 1.8% to 29,068.63
  • Topix up 1.9% to 2,023.93
  • Hang Seng Index up 1.5% to 25,330.96
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.4% to 3,572.37
  • Sensex up 0.9% to 61,305.95
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.7% to 7,361.98
  • Kospi up 0.9% to 3,015.06
  • Brent Futures up 1.0% to $84.83/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.5% to $1,787.54
  • U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 93.92

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • China’s central bank broke its silence on the crisis at China Evergrande Group, saying risks to the financial system stemming from the developer’s struggles are “controllable” and unlikely to spread
  • The ECB has a good track record when it comes to flexibly deploying its monetary instruments and will continue that approach even after the pandemic crisis, according to policy maker Pierre Wunsch
  • Italian Ministry of Economy and Finance says fourth issuance of BTP Futura to start on Nov. 8 until Nov. 12, according to a statement
  • The world’s largest digital currency rose about 3% to more than $59,000 on Friday — taking this month’s rally to over 35% — after Bloomberg News reported the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission looks poised to allow the country’s first futures-based cryptocurrency ETF
  • Copper inventories available on the London Metal Exchange hit the lowest level since 1974, in a dramatic escalation of a squeeze on global supplies that’s sent spreads spiking and helped drive prices back above $10,000 a ton

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asia-Pac stocks traded higher amid tailwinds from the upbeat mood across global peers including the best day for the S&P 500 since March after strong US bank earnings, encouraging data and a decline in yields spurred risk appetite. The ASX 200 (+0.7%) was positive as the tech and mining sectors continued to spearhead the advances in the index in which the former took impetus from Wall St where the softer yield environment was conducive to the outperformance in tech, although mining giant Rio Tinto was among the laggards following weaker quarterly production results. The Nikkei 225 (+1.8%) was buoyed as exporters benefitted from the JPY-risk dynamic but with Fast Retailing failing to join in on the spoils despite an 88% jump in full-year net as its profit guidance underwhelmed with just 3% growth seen for the year ahead, while Taiwan’s TAIEX (+2.2%) surged with the spotlight on TSMC earnings which reached a record high amid the chip crunch and with the Co. to also build a factory in Japan that could receive JPY 500bln of support from the Japanese government. The Hang Seng (+1.5%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.4%) were initially indecisive amid the overhang from lingering developer default concerns although found some mild support from reports that China is to relax banks’ mortgage limits through the rest of 2021. Focus was also on the PBoC which announced a CNY 500bln MLF operation, although this just matched the amount maturing this month and there are mixed views regarding prospects of a looming RRR cut with ANZ Bank’s senior China strategist recently suggesting the potential for a 50bps cut in RRR or targeted MLF as early as today, although a recent poll showed analysts had pushed back their calls for a RRR cut from Q4 2021 to Q1 2022. Finally, 10yr JGBs marginally pulled back from this week’s advances after hitting resistance at the 151.50 level, with demand hampered amid the firm gains in Japanese stocks and the lack of BoJ purchases in the market today.

Top Asian News

  • Hong Kong Probes Going Concern Reporting of Evergrande
  • U.S. Futures Hold Gains as Oil Hits 3-Year High: Markets Wrap
  • Toyota Cuts November Outlook by 15% on Parts Shortage, Covid
  • Yango Group Wires Repayment Fund for Onshore Bond Due Oct. 22

Bourses in Europe have held onto the modest gains seen at the cash open (Euro Stoxx 50 +0.4%; Stoxx 600 +0.3%), but the region is off its best levels with the upside momentum somewhat faded heading into the US open, and amidst a lack of fresh newsflow. US equity futures have remained in positive territory, although the latest leg lower in bonds has further capped the tech-laden NQ (+0.2%), which underperforms vs the ES (+0.3%), YM (+0.3%) and RTY (+0.7%), with traders on the lookout for another set of earnings, headlined by Goldman Sachs at 12:25BST/07:25EDT. Back to Europe, bourses see broad-based gains, whilst sectors are mostly in the green with clear underperformance experienced in defensives, with Telecoms, Utilities, Healthcare and Staples at the foot of the bunch. On the flipside, Banks reap rewards from the uptick in yields, closely followed by Travel & Leisure, Autos & Parts and Retail. Renault (+4%) drives the gains in Autos after unveiling a prototype version of the Renault Master van that will go on sale next year. Travel & Leisure is bolstered by the ongoing reopening trade with potential tailwinds heading into the Christmas period. Retail meanwhile is boosted by Hugo Boss (+1.8%) topping forecasts and upgrading its guidance.

Top European News

  • Autumn Heat May Curb European Gas Demand, Prices Next Week
  • Bollore Looking for Buyers for Africa Logistics Ops: Le Monde
  • U.K. Offers Foreign Butchers Visas After 6,000 Pigs Culled
  • Europe’s Car-Sales Crash Points to Worse Year Than Poor 2020

In FX, the Greenback was already losing momentum after a relatively tame bounce on the back of Thursday’s upbeat US initial claims data, and the index failed to sustain its recovery to retest intraday highs or remain above 94.000 on a closing basis. However, the Buck did reclaim some significant and psychological levels against G10, EM currencies and Gold that was relishing the benign yield environment and the last DXY price was marginally better than the 21 DMA from an encouraging technical standpoint. Nevertheless, the Dollar remains weaker vs most majors and in need of further impetus that may come via retail sales, NY Fed manufacturing and/or preliminary Michigan Sentiment before the spotlight switches to today’s Fed speakers featuring arch hawk Bullard and the more neutral Williams.

  • GBP/NZD/NOK – Sterling has refuelled and recharged regardless of the ongoing UK-EU rift over NI Protocol, though perhaps in part due to the fact that concessions from Brussels are believed to have been greeted with welcome surprise by some UK Ministers. Cable has reclaimed 1.3700+ status, breached the 50 DMA (at 1.3716 today) and yesterday’s best to set a marginal new w-t-d peak around 1.3739, while Eur/Gbp is edging closer to 0.8450 having clearly overcome resistance at 1.1800 in the reciprocal cross. Similarly, the Kiwi continues to derive impetus from the softer Greenback and Aud/Nzd flows as Nzd/Usd extends beyond 0.7050 and the Antipodean cross inches nearer 1.0500 from 1.0600+ highs. Elsewhere, the Norwegian Crown is aiming to add 9.7500 to its list of achievements relative to the Euro with a boost from Brent topping Usd 85/brl at one stage and a wider trade surplus.
  • CAD – The Loonie is also profiting from oil as WTI crude rebounds through Usd 82 and pulling further away from 1.5 bn option expiry interest between 1.2415-00 in the process, with Usd/Cad towards the base of 1.2337-82 parameters.
  • EUR/AUD/CHF/SEK – All narrowly mixed and rangy vs the Greenback, or Euro in the case of the latter, as Eur/Usd continues to straddle 1.1600, Aud/Usd churn on the 0.7400 handle, the Franc meander from 0.9219 to 0.9246 and Eur/Sek skirt 10.0000 having dipped below the round number briefly on Thursday.

In commodities, WTI and Brent front month futures remain on a firmer footing, aided up the overall constructive risk appetite coupled with some bullish technical developments, as WTI Nov surpassed USD 82/bbl (vs 81.39/bbl low) and Brent Dec briefly topped USD 85/bbl (vs 84.16/bbl low). There has been little in terms of fresh fundamental catalysts to drive the price action, although Russia’s Gazprom Neft CEO hit the wires earlier and suggested that reserve production capacity could meet the increase in oil demand, whilst a seasonal decline in oil consumption is possible and the oil market will stabilise in the nearest future. On the Iranian JCPOA front, Iran said it is finalising steps to completing its negotiating team but they are absolutely decided to go back to Vienna discussions and conclude the negotiations, WSJ’s Norman. The crude complex seems to have (for now) overlooked reports that the White House is engaged in diplomacy” with OPEC+ members regarding output. UK nat gas prices were higher as European players entered the fray, but prices have since waned off best levels after Russian Deputy PM Novak suggested that gas production in Russia is running at maximum capacity. Elsewhere, spot gold has been trundling amid yield-play despite lower despite the Buck being on the softer side of today’s range. Spot gold failed to hold onto USD 1,800/oz status yesterday and has subsequently retreated below its 200 DMA (1,794/oz) and makes its way towards the 50 DMA (1,776/oz). LME copper prices are on a firmer footing with prices back above USD 10,000/t – supported by technicals and the overall risk tone, although participants are cognizant of potential Chinese state reserves releases. Conversely, Dalian iron ore futures fell for a third straight session, with Rio Tinto also cutting its 2021 iron ore shipment forecasts due to dampened Chinese demand.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Sept. Retail Sales Advance MoM, est. -0.2%, prior 0.7%
  • 8:30am: Sept. Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM, est. 0.5%, prior 1.8%
  • 8:30am: Sept. Retail Sales Control Group, est. 0.5%, prior 2.5%
  • 8:30am: Sept. Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas, est. 0.3%, prior 2.0%
  • 8:30am: Oct. Empire Manufacturing, est. 25.0, prior 34.3
  • 8:30am: Sept. Import Price Index MoM, est. 0.6%, prior -0.3%; YoY, est. 9.4%, prior 9.0%
  • 8:30am: Sept. Export Price Index MoM, est. 0.7%, prior 0.4%; YoY, prior 16.8%
  • 10am: Aug. Business Inventories, est. 0.6%, prior 0.5%
  • 10am: Oct. U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation, est. 4.7%, prior 4.6%; 5-10 Yr Inflation, prior 3.0%
  • 10am: Oct. U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 73.1, prior 72.8
  • 10am: Oct. U. of Mich. Current Conditions, est. 81.2, prior 80.1
  • 10am: Oct. U. of Mich. Expectations, est. 69.1, prior 68.1

DB’s Jim Ried concludes the overnight wrap

A few people asked me what I thought of James Bond. I can’t say without spoilers so if anyone wants my two sentence review I will cut and paste it to all who care and reply! At my age I was just impressed I sat for over three hours (including trailers) without needing a comfort break. By the time you email I will have also listened to the new Adele single which dropped at midnight so happy to include that review as well for free.

While we’re on the subject of music, risk assets feel a bit like the most famous Chumbawamba song at the moment. They get knocked down and they get up again. Come to think about it that’s like James Bond too. Yesterday was a strong day with the S&P 500 (+1.71%) moving back to within 2.2% of its all-time closing high from last month. If they can survive all that has been thrown at them of late then one wonders where they’d have been without any of it.

The strong session came about thanks to decent corporate earnings releases, a mini-collapse in real yields, positive data on US jobless claims, as well as a further fall in global Covid-19 cases that leaves them on track for an 8th consecutive weekly decline. However, inflation remained very much on investors’ radars, with a range of key commodities taking another leg higher, even as US data on producer prices was weaker than expected.

Starting with the good news, the equity strength was across the board with the S&P 500 experiencing its best daily performance since March, whilst Europe’s STOXX 600 (+1.20%) also put in solid gains. It was an incredibly broad-based move higher, with every sector group in both indices rising on the day, with a remarkable 479 gainers in the S&P 500, which is the second-highest number we’ve seen over the last 18 months. Every one of the 24 S&P 500 industry groups rose, led by cyclicals such as semiconductors (+3.12%), transportation (+2.51%) and materials (+2.43%). A positive start to the Q3 earnings season buoyed sentiment, as a number of US banks (+1.45%) reported yesterday, all of whom beat analyst estimates. In fact, of the nine S&P 500 firms to report yesterday, eight outperformed analyst expectations. Weighing in on recent macro themes, Bank of America Chief, Brian Moynihan, noted that the current bout of inflation is “clearly not temporary”, but also that he expects consumer demand to remain robust and that supply chains will have to adjust. I’m sure we’ll hear more from executives as earnings season continues today.

Alongside those earnings releases, yesterday saw much better than expected data on the US labour market, which makes a change from last week’s underwhelming jobs report that showed the slowest growth in nonfarm payrolls so far this year. In terms of the details, the weekly initial jobless claims for the week through October 9, which is one of the most timely indicators we get, fell to a post-pandemic low of 293k (vs. 320k expected). That also saw the 4-week moving average hit a post-pandemic low of 334.25k, just as the continuing claims number for the week through October 2 hit a post-pandemic low of 2.593m (vs. 2.670m expected). We should get some more data on the state of the US recovery today, including September retail sales, alongside the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index for October.

That optimism has fed through into Asian markets overnight, with the Nikkei (+1.43%), the Hang Seng (+0.86%), the Shanghai Comp (+0.29%) and the KOSPI (+0.93%) all moving higher. That came as Bloomberg reported that China would loosen restrictions on home loans amidst the concerns about Evergrande. And we also got formal confirmation that President Biden had signed the debt-limit increase that the House had passed on Tuesday, which extends the ceiling until around December 3. Equity futures are pointing to further advances in the US and Europe later on, with those on the S&P 500 (+0.30%) and the STOXX 50 (+0.35%) both moving higher.

Even with the brighter news, inflation concerns are still very much with us however, and yesterday in fact saw Bloomberg’s Commodity Spot Index (+1.16%) advance to yet another record high, exceeding the previous peak from early last week. That was partly down to the continued rise in oil prices, with WTI (+1.08%) closing at $81.31/bbl, its highest level since 2014, just as Brent Crude (+0.99%) hit a post-2018 high of $84.00/bbl. Both have posted further gains this morning of +0.58% and +0.61% respectively. Those moves went alongside further rises in natural gas prices, which rose for a 3rd consecutive session, albeit they’re still beneath their peak from earlier in the month, as futures in Europe (+9.14%), the US (+1.74%) and the UK (+9.26%) all moved higher. And that rise in Chinese coal futures we’ve been mentioning also continued, with their rise today currently standing at +13.86%, which brings their gains over the week as a whole to +39.02% so far.

As well as energy, industrial metals were another segment where the recent rally showed no sign of abating yesterday. On the London metal exchange, a number of multi-year milestones were achieved, with aluminum prices (+1.60%) up to their highest levels since 2008, just as zinc prices (+3.73%) closed at their highest level since 2018. Separately, copper prices (+2.56%) hit a 4-month high, and other winners yesterday included iron ore futures in Singapore (+1.16%), as well as nickel (+1.99%) and lead (+2.43%) prices in London.

With all this momentum behind commodities, inflation expectations posted further advances yesterday. Indeed, the 10yr US Breakeven closed +1.0bps higher at 2.536%, which is just 3bps shy of its closing peak back in May that marked its highest level since 2013. And those moves came in spite of US producer price data that came in weaker than expected, with the monthly increase in September at +0.5% (vs. +0.6% expected). That was the smallest rise so far this year, though that still sent the year-on-year number up to +8.6% (vs. +8.7% expected). That rise in inflation expectations was echoed in Europe too, with the 10yr UK breakeven (+5.6bps) closing at its highest level since 2008, whilst its German counterpart also posted a modest +0.7bps rise.

In spite of the rise in inflation expectations, sovereign bonds posted gains across the board as the moves were outweighed by the impact of lower real rates. By the end of yesterday’s session, yields on 10yr Treasuries were down -2.6bps to 1.527%, which came as the 10yr real yield moved back beneath -1% for the first time in almost a month. Likewise in Europe, yields pushed lower throughout the session, with those on 10yr bunds (-6.3bps), OATs (-6.2bps) and BTPs (-7.1bps) all moving aggressively lower.

To the day ahead now, and US data releases include September retail sales, the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index for October, and the Empire State manufacturing survey for October. Central bank speakers include the Fed’s Bullard and Williams, and earnings releases include Charles Schwab and Goldman Sachs.

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)FRIDAY MORNING/THURSDAY  NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 14.09 PTS OR .40%     //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 368.37 PTS OR 1.48% /The Nikkei closed UP 517.70 PTS OR 1.81%    //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.71%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP 6.4346   /Oil UP TO 82.10 dollars per barrel for WTI and UP TO 84.48 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN   /ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED  UP AT 6.4346 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.4338/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%/

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

/NORTH KOREA//SOUTH KOREA

 
end

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

JAPAN

 

 

3 C CHINA

CHINA

Taiwan has been very slow in bring its vaccinations to its people.  They were averaging a very small 5 to 10 cases. By the time the first vaccinations were administered, the TOTAL deaths to COVID were about 10.  Now there are 846 deaths, of which 836 occurred after vaccination. It seems that we have ADE occurring here, where imperfect antibodies are allowing the free flow of Delta virus into the cells.  This is very dangerous. It looks like that this is the blueprint what we are experiencing throughout the globe

 

Robert to me on the following:

 

 
 
 
 
You are absolutely correct. Many people exist today with impaired immune systems knowingly or not, and are probably are operating in the 60-70%  range of function. And, I am most concerned about the reducing immune system capability of vaccinated people and while i am doing things to assist best i can with natural ingredients the clear reality is the jury is out whether it works out. Only time will tell. I figure that the average person’s immune system is declining at a rate of 2.5-3% or more per month depending on underlying conditions. Some such conditions not considered beyond the known obvious ones. And if i am remotely correct by this coming spring in 2022, you will see people experiencing ADE in unimaginable numbers as immune systems approach that of AIDS patients. Those who the early adopters of jabs will be experiencing the most difficulty

 

The only thing i have concluded may save people is a rapid removal of the graphene oxide from the body to limit the ability of growth of spike proteins and the consequences. Many people who took the shots early did not have the knowledge or access to what is needed and are already dead. They just do not know yet. Wait until that mass of humanity figures out they have not just been lied to but murdered by government corrupt inept officials dancing to an agenda.
 
I figure that one has about a 45 day window to remove the graphene while limiting the ability of the MRNA catalyst to create spike proteins to counter the impact. Otherwise it is a lost war and only retreating battles can be fought to buy time to live. Graphene oxide is stimulated by heat and electrical frequencies to grow. I suspect this is what causes clumping. I have heard that when people are fortunate enough in time to go a dialysis machine the machines clog up and the removed blood is black, ( probably a good idea to have such access). And given how naive people have been not to secure ivermectin or NAC and other elements, many souls are trapped. And one can expect the elderly will be wiped out in vast numbers with the approach of the flu season. And if that does not do the job,  the 3rd shot of Moderna will. As it is there is a crisis in health care as many people have been denied timely health care or have suffered self isolation with consequences.

 

Cheers

 

Robert

a must read….

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

UK’s “chicken king” warns that the era of cheap food is over

(zerohedge)

UK’s “Chicken King” Warns: The Era Of Cheap Food Is Over

 
FRIDAY, OCT 15, 2021 – 05:45 AM

At least someone is honest when it comes to soaring food inflation

“Food is too cheap,” Ranjit Boparan, who is known as the “Chicken King” in the UK, was quoted by Reuters

“In relative terms, a chicken today is cheaper to buy than it was 20 years ago. How can it be right that a whole chicken costs less than a pint of beer? You’re looking at a different world from now on where the shopper pays more,” Boparan said, who produces 33% of all poultry products in the country. 

“The days when you could feed a family of four with an STG3 ($A5.55) chicken are coming to an end,” he said, adding that the twin crises of Brexit and COVID are pushing prices higher amid snarled supply chains in the world’s fifth-largest economy. The shortage of truckers to butchers to warehouse workers has exacerbated supply chain pressure. An energy crisis and power crunch have disrupted the food supply chain and added additional inflationary pressures. 

He outlined how labor shortages would pressure wage inflation higher that would force him to automate:

“Less labor means less choice, core ranges, empty shelves, and wage inflation, and this isn’t going to change,” he said.

“Right now, I need to be honest about what this means for the consumer as inflation could reach double digits.”

A winter of discontent could be nearing for millions of Brits as soaring food, energy, and power prices hamper the country’s economic recovery.

end

UK/EUROPEAN / GAS PRICES//NATURAL GAS SHORTAGES

UK fuel and household energy spending soared a huge 20% in the past two weeks according to Lloyd’s Bank

(courtesy Epoch Times)

UK Fuel & Household Energy Spending Soared 20% In The Past 2 Weeks: Lloyds Bank

 
FRIDAY, OCT 15, 2021 – 02:00 AM

Via The Epoch Times,

Sept. 24 saw the highest amount spent on fuel in a single day since Lloyds Bank records began, analysis of customers’ debit cards shows.

The peak fell the day after BP and Tesco closed some filling stations due to problems with fuel delivery.

Across the UK, people spent a fifth (20 percent) more at petrol stations in the past two weeks, compared with the two weeks before, the bank said.

Sept. 24 saw the bank’s debit card users spend 125 percent more on fuel than on the same day in 2019, and the highest amount since records began in April 2014.

The East Midlands saw the biggest increase in fuel spending in the last two weeks compared with the two before, up 24 percent, followed by the West Midlands (23 percent), and the south east (22 percent).

This was followed by Yorkshire and Humber (20 percent). Wales and Scotland saw the lowest increases, at 14 percent and 15 percent respectively, followed by London and the south west on 19 percent.

However, the bank said there were signs that demand for fuel was easing. Week-on-week spending across the UK has fallen by almost a third (31 percent), with the number of transactions down 20 percent.

Only three regions, all in the south and east, saw drops of less than 30 percent. Londoners’ spending on fuel fell just 20 percent, the lowest of any region, followed by the south east (21 percent) and east of England (25 percent).

The amount spent on cards on household energy in the past two weeks also increased, by 24 percent, as a combination of colder weather and soaring energy prices gripped the UK.

Spending on energy is now 14 percent higher than the same two weeks in 2020, the bank’s figures show.

Philip Robinson, payments and fraud and financial crime director at Lloyds Bank, said: “After an initial incredible spike in late September where spending on fuel was the highest we’ve ever seen it, over the past week card payments at petrol stations have fallen, particularly in northern and western parts of the UK.

“However, household energy spend continues to increase, 13 percent in the last week alone, driven by rising prices and colder months.

“With this in mind, now is a very good time to sit down and reflect on your personal finances ahead of Christmas 2021.

“Budget effectively and give yourself a clear idea of what you can afford this festive season.”

end

Robert to me on this story!!

The silliness that politicians think they can destroy people’s lives without consequences is simply naive.
Take away people’s lives to the point there is no hope, only despair and people have nothing to lose. When there is nothing to lose violence comes without sight. Even the push backs on protests ignite people to violence. Most people cannot comprehend violence within households and towards children that is simply awful and gruesome. All this combines to reduce humanity to the point that new leaders are born in the moment and mob violence comes with the blindness of rage to feast on everything in sight. One only needs to study the French Revolution.
The reality of forced vaccinations that we see and the resultant economic and social dislocations that are occurring within countries that are dry logs on a roaring fire that started many years ago with built in problems of reckless spending on pension promises by governments while reducing interest rates and mindless debt spending in countries like China. Empty cities that can house millions of people have a burden cost that cannot be ignored and demand payment. Frankly, people are ignoring the reality of a collapsing China who today is vastly short of electrical power and food. Flooding and the like in china is producing a human tragedy that for now has China scurrying to buy food stores and more likely in the near future threatens to experience starvation, if adequate food stores are not secured from a declining global supply. In such a state, dislocations of production are to be expected and shortages are not surprising. Even India is on the edge with power production with very real consequences. This is not helped by shortages in supply chains of transport that are currently under very real stress. Wait until the real consequences of a Solar Minimum are coming home to roost in 2-3 years with the corresponding changes. Winters will get longer while more people will be dependent on electrical grids for running their cars, and oil production is being starved of capital. Even in the UK legislation is coming to curb one from charging their cars. Imagine that! And Europe may well discover how naive politicians really are with inadequate supplies of gas for power and heating. Seems like no one considered that winds can change and windmills are useless stranded assets when adequate winds are not present.
Safety of all manner of assets and personal safety will become much more of a concern going forward throughout next year, at home or traveling or at the office. The only question is whether people will be ready.

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/british-lawmaker-amess-stabbed-multiple-times-sky-2021-10-15/

Conservative UK Lawmaker David Amess Stabbed Multiple Times In Essex Church, Suspect Arrested

 
FRIDAY, OCT 15, 2021 – 08:44 AM

Conservative MP Sir David Amess was stabbed several times while attending a constituency surgery meeting at a church in Essex, according to LBC.

Armed police and forensics officers were seen outside the Belfairs Methodist Church in Leigh-on-Sea a short while ago. Amess. 69, was receiving treatment at the scene, according to Sky News. His condition is unknown.

A man has been arrested per the police.

“David Amess Southend MP stabbed in Belfairs Methodist church Eastwood road literally as I was outside the building,” wrote one person online.

Another tweeted “Something big going on outside Belfairs Methodist Church on Eastwood Road North near the Woodcutters.”

A constituency surgery is a series of one-on-one meetings that an MP will hold with members of the public, where people may raise concerns over governance.

Developing…

end

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

TURKEY//TALIBAN

Floundering Turkey witnessing a collapse in their lira is hosting the Taliban.  The Taliban warns the uSA and the EU than sanctions on it will cause a massive refugee wave to hit the west.

(zerohedge)

Taliban Is In Turkey For Talks After Warning US & EU That Sanctions Will Cause New Refugee Wave To Hit West

 
FRIDAY, OCT 15, 2021 – 02:45 AM

The Taliban has warned US and European envoys during ongoing talks in Doha that continued sanctions and US-led political pressure could unleash new refugee waves on Europe

“Afghanistan’s new Taliban government has warned US and European envoys that continued attempts to pressure them through sanctions will undermine security and could trigger a wave of economic refugees,” the AFP wrote of the statement. Later in the week, the Taliban carried the same message to Turkey, which would find itself on the front lines of any migrant surge out of central Asia.

 

A Taliban delegation is in Ankara for talks on Thursday, via TRT World

Taliban official and acting foreign minister Amir Khan Muttaqi told his Western counterparts that “weakening the Afghan government is not in the interest of anyone because its negative effects will directly affect the world in (the) security sector and economic migration from the country.”

Perhaps both a warning and a threat, and reminiscent of the 2015 migrant crisis driven in large part by the destabilizing war in Syria, Muttaqi added the following demand:

We urge world countries to end existing sanctions and let banks operate normally so that charity groups, organizations and the government can pay salaries to their staff with their own reserves and international financial assistance.”

As for any recent “concessions” by Washington, the Biden administration days ago announced the US would resume humanitarian aid “to the Afghan people” – but on the condition of Taliban cooperation, including allowing foreign nationals free movement to exit the country. The US has still resisted any level of formal political recognition of Taliban rule over the country, however.

Aid, investment, and security were top of the list of concerns as the Taliban met with top Turkish officials in Ankara Thursday. Given Turkey has long been the number one regional “bridge” between Asia and Europe for migrant and refugee traffic, the question of Afghan refugees is of prime importance for Turkey’s government. 

Turkey is expected to feel the shock first of any coming refugee wave out of Afghanistan, given it’s already long been for years a “jumping-off point” for Afghans making the arduous trip to Europe. The past decade alone has seen some 600,000 Afghans settle in Turkey – all the while a mass wave of Syrian refugees exited there as well, many which are still along Turkey’s southern border (over 3 million).

Turkey is reportedly now constructing a nearly 300km wall along the Iranian borderto physically block the exodus coming from central Asia, according to prior reporting in the AFP.

During a press conference after the Turkish FM-Taliban meeting, Foreign Minister Cavusoglu said that while the Turkish side reiterated a desire for Taliban reforms in human rights and areas like girls’ education and women’s employment, Turkey’s foremost concern remains stability.

The question of security, which Turkey has offered assistance on when it comes to protecting Kabul’s international airport, is no doubt directly linked to Turkey as well as European fears of a new migrant crisis at their gates. In statements to the press, Cavusoglu appeared to take an indirect swipe at US policy toward the Taliban, saying it won’t press for “preconditions” of “inclusivity” like the US and UE, but desires a secure Afghan environment above all.

 

END

6.Global Issues

CORONAVIRUS UPDATE

One -quarter of all Soccer league players say they will not get vaccinated

Huge number…

(Watson/SummitNews)

A Quarter Of Football League Players Say They Won’t Get Vaccinated

 
FRIDAY, OCT 15, 2021 – 05:00 AM

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

At least a quarter of Football League players say they will refuse to take the COVID-19 vaccine, with authorities concerned that the number of players getting the jab has slowed drastically over the last month.

Although the number of players to have been double jabbed has increased from 18% in August to 49% in the latest set of figures, that number appears to have hit a brick wall.

“The number of players who have been immunised or plan to get the jab has gone up by only 5% over the past month,” reports the Mail on Sunday.

“Approximately 75% of players this month across the EFL are fully vaccinated, have had a single jab or intend to be vaccinated,” according to the report, meaning a full quarter do not intend to get the shot.

The main reasons the players cite for declining to take the shot is that are they young, healthy athletes who likely won’t face serious illness even if they get the virus, in addition to concern over the side effects of the vaccine.

They are also concerned by stories of people suffering heart inflammation after taking the vaccine, even though official medical agencies have reported such cases as “very rare,” according to the report, with speculation still raging as to whether Christian Eriksen’s cardiac arrest at Euro 2020 might have been caused by the vaccine.

As we highlighted last month, despite a massive PR push to encourage vaccination, and the threat to teams who don’t achieve high rates being punished, only 7 of the 20 Premier League clubs have more than 50% of the players in their squads vaccinated.

The fact that so many holdouts remained led to footballing authorities having to reverse a vaccine mandate for players performing at the 2022 Qatar World Cup.

The government and media continue to blame “conspiracy theorists” for influencing the players not to get the jab.

This is tremendously stupid and disrespectful given that these athletes are at the top of their game and being obsessed with health and fitness is literally their job.

If the people whose very careers and livelihood is wholly dependent on them remaining healthy, shouldn’t we be paying attention when they express hesitancy about taking the vaccine, or should we merely dismiss them as uninformed cranks?

 END

NBA star Brandon Goodwin out for the season and most likely his career after getting blood clots from the jab

(BWI.forums.rivals.com)

NBA Star Gets Blood Clots, Says From Jab, Ends His Season, Possibly His Career (move along, nothing to see here)…

https://bwi.forums.rivals.com/threads/nba-star-gets-blood-clots-says-from-jab-ends-his-season-possibly-his-career-move-along-nothing-to-see-here.307312/

NBA Star Gets Blood Clots, Says From Jab, Ends His Season, Possibly His Career​

“I was fine up until I took the vaccine… the vaccine ended my season. One thousand percent.”​

By Zach Heilman
October 12, 2021

Brandon Goodwin, an NBA player, suffered blood clots shortly after receiving the Covid-19 vaccine. Goodwin is a former point guard for the Atlanta Hawks whose season ended early after developing the clots. Goodwin has not signed with another NBA team since being released from the Hawks after his diagnosis.

“I got sick, and I never quite recovered from it,” Goodwin said on a Twitch stream. “I would always have back pain. I was just super tired in the games. I was so tired. I felt like I couldn’t run up and down the court. My back was hurting. My back really started hurting bad. Then, I’m like, ‘OK. I need to go to the doctor. That’s when I found out I had blood clots. That all within the span of a month.” – Brandon Goodwin

Goodwin is confident the clots were a result of the Covid-19 vaccine. Up until receiving the vaccine, he was in good health.

“I was fine until then. I was fine up until I took the vaccine, I was fine. People trying to tell you, ‘No. It’s not the vaccine.’ How do you know? You don’t know. Yes, the vaccine ended my season. One thousand percent.” – Brandon Goodwin

end

Kyrie Irving will not take the shot and thus will lose 34 million dollars. The Nets have suspended him.

This will be the end of basketballl!

And the FDA is even thinking about this?
(zerohedge)
 
GLOBAL ISSUES//global shipping backlogs
 
Global ship backlog just got worse with news of another tropical storm hitting the Chinese coast
(zerohedge)

Global Ship Backlog Just Got Even Worse As New Supply Chain Nemesis Emerges

 
THURSDAY, OCT 14, 2021 – 11:40 PM

As if relentless, fiscally-stimulated global demand for (made in China) products, coupled with soaring input prices, Covid-crippled industries, production-throttling energy crises and containership parking lots off major ports wasn’t enough to cripple global supply chains, we can throw in one more factor that will make “just in time” deliveries a thing of the pre-Biden past and will ensure that nobody gets their presents this Christmas.

The weather.

A tropical storm that’s lashing southern China is causing a ship backlog from Shenzhen to Singapore, Bloomberg reports as it warn of even emptier store shelves come Christmas.

Shipping data compiled by Bloomberg show there are currently 67 container ships anchored off Hong Kong and Shenzhen, 22% more congested than median daily counts from April through Oct. 14. Another 61 remain anchored off China’s massive Ningbo port in Shanghai.

 

Container ship positions as of Oct. 14 heatmapped in yellow.

For once there is no “unintended consequence” behind this pile up – it’s the result of Typhoon Kompasu freezing transit lanes, closing schools in Hong Kong and canceling stock market trading in the financial hub on Wednesday. It also sparked the latest containership domino-effect at the worst possible time, with 37 ships now waiting off Singapore, 18% more congested than normal. And with Singapore one of the most efficient ports in the world and a key hub for containers to be moved from one vessel to another while in transit, any disruption in the city-state is bound to have far-reaching ramifications.

The incremental delays will make an already fragile supply chain, that much more unstable: according to the Busan Port Authority in South Korea, vessels are having to wait about three days to berth and that’s causing so-called transshipment cargo to pile up. Meanwhile, almost 40 ships are anchored off Los Angeles, 4.5% more congested than usual, while 11 are cooling their heels off the coast of Malaysia at Tanjung Pelepas, creating a congestion rate about 25% above the median. For Vietnam’s dual hub of Ho Chi Minh City and Vung Tau, things are even worse, with current congestion 38% higher than the median.

Operators are scrambling to find a solution to this chaos which seems to get worse with every passing day: “shipping companies and other stakeholders are trying to resolve the backlog because there are real concerns that many year-end holiday goods will never reach consumers in time,” said Um Kyung-a, an analyst at Shinyoung Securities in Seoul. “This month will be the most challenging period but hopefully things will start to ease from the fourth quarter.”

This is a “hopeful” line we have heard every month since May. It has yet to come true.

Located at the gateway – both literal and metaphorical – of global Transpacific supply chains, accessible port terminals are an indispensable anchor to any hopes of normalizing supply chains. Alas, congestion at container terminals around the world has added pressure to already stretched supply chains. Covid-19 cases at ports, along with shortages of shipping containers and labor have aggravated the problem as exporters try to send goods to the U.S. and Europe before the end of the year.

According to Singapore Logistics Association chairman Dave Ng, vessels are waiting one to three days to berth at most major ports in Southeast Asia, including Singapore, The wait is more than three days at major ports in Northeast Asia and could extend to over a week in other parts of the world. And any incremental delays only cascade exponentially, adding more days to an already broken system.

“Global port congestion has introduced more uncertainty into planning and booking of sea shipments,” Ng told Bloomberg. “Ocean freight costs have increased five to six times from the levels pre-Covid and this has translated into higher operating costs for logistics companies.”

Logistics companies have been working to improve business productivity by sharing resources and leveraging technology, Ng said. But they still face difficulties in filling jobs, particularly driving and warehousing, which could impact operations in the near term, he said.

Meanwhile, Bloomberg reported this week that shipping giant Maersk said earlier this week that it’s diverting some ships from the U.K.’s largest container port because of congestion tied to a trucker shortage. Many logistics companies are finding it difficult to find drivers to pick up and deliver containers, causing a backlog at the Port of Felixstowe.

Port congestion and lack of containers has driven shipping rates to record levels this year. Spot levies to haul a 40-foot container to Los Angeles from Shanghai peaked at $12,424 last month before easing to $11,173 as of Oct. 7, the Drewry World Container Index show. Rates to Rotterdam from Shanghai hit an all-time high of $14,807 last week. Shipping rates dipped modestly in the latest week, but as we explained previously, this was for the worst possible reason namely a sharp drop in China output. Expect a sharp spike in the next few weeks as throttled Chinese production returns.

Exporters and shipping companies have been trying to find alternative routes to avoid the backlog. Some cargo from China is now being shipped to Busan and then reloaded on ships bound for Russia’s east coast before being put on trains and sent through to Europe.

In an act of sheer desperation, the Biden admin announced on Wednesday that the Port of Los Angeles will begin operating 24 hours a day, seven days a week as part of efforts to break the logjam. However, as Rabobank explained earlier this morning, simply getting containers out of the terminal at LA achieves very little if you don’t the solve chassis crisis; if the containers sit there waiting for trucks; or for truckers; or for rail. All you do is move the logjam from sea to shore – and that can potentially make matters worse. The Transportation Secretary running this task force is a vocal opponent of the ‘so build a bigger road’ mentality that ends up with bigger roads and the same traffic logjam.

end

More problems for Ford as they halt production at their Mexico plant in Hermosillo

(zerohedge)

Ford Halts Production At Mexico Plant Amid Snarled Supply Chains 

 
FRIDAY, OCT 15, 2021 – 01:45 PM

The Ford Motor Company Hermosillo assembly plant in Hermosillo, the capital city of the Mexican state of Sonora, temporarily suspended operations Friday due to a shortage of materials, according to Reuters, citing the plant’s labor union. 

The Hermosillo assembly plant currently assembles the Bronco Sport SUV and Maverick compact pickups for the North American market. Production of those vehicles was halted Friday due to supply shortages – there was no mention of what supplies were in short stock. 

The union said workers would be paid 75% of their salaries on Friday. This isn’t the first time the plant has shuttered operations. The last time was between Oct. 11-12. 

Ford has struggled all year to maintain consistent operations at its assembly plants due to the impact of the global chip shortage. Lately, the company recently suspended production at its Flat Rock, Michigan, plant and another facility in Kansas City, Missouri. 

Last month, Ford CEO Jim Farley told Yahoo Finance that semiconductors shortages continue to challenge the company but see better conditions in the fourth quarter than third. He acknowledged the chip shortage will be an issue for the auto industry into 2022.

Ford’s dealer inventories are extremely thin. As of the first of this month, there were 236,000 vehicles in stock with about a 38-day supply, well below the average 60- to 70-day supply. Sales have also plunged, down 27.6% in the third quarter from a year ago and 31.5% from the third quarter of 2019. 

Declining sales and limited supply come as average new car prices continue to skyrocket to new highs

 

 
LA PALMA VOLCANO ERUPTION

La Palma//daily updates

La Palma volcano: Hundreds more evacuated as lava advances on island – YouTube

 
 
 
 

It is getting worse … there were over 55 earthquakes there varying in depth …..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZUULAWRfw1Q

Cheers
Robert

 

[Message clipped]  View entire message

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Attachments area
 
Preview YouTube video LA PALMA VULKANAUSBRUCH: Enorme Aktivität – So wird der Vulkan im Cumbre Vieja überwacht

 

end
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Attachments area
 
Preview YouTube video Terrible (Oct 15, 2021) Possible Tsunami, La Palma volcano lava effusion rates, New lava arm at Sea

 

 
Michael Every on the major topics of the day
 
Michael Every…
 

Rabobank: If Something Simply Isn’t Available, Does That Make It Cheap Or Expensive?

 
FRIDAY, OCT 15, 2021 – 10:15 AM

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Yesterday’s US PPI report followed the Chinese one in seeing an increase in pipeline price pressures while still understating the degree to which they are actually soaring. Yes, when you are dealing with this many moving parts there is always room for statistical error: and when you are dealing with this many parts that aren’t moving, far more so. What if something simply isn’t available? Does that make it cheap or expensive? Some are running with the idea that ‘PPI has peaked’, ironically just as even the Fed, this time Bullard, is saying inflation is not looking so “transitory”. Ignore the ‘bullish’ PPI report: look at the actual economy.

China is already not exporting fertilizer; or refined fuels; and now it is cutting magnesium production, where it holds a near-total monopoly. It will no doubt serve the local market first, as with phosphates and fuel, but this will hit exports, and leaves EU car producers with stocks that will be depleted by end-November, after which factories likely grind to a halt. Note that in 2001, Europe was forced to close its remaining magnesium production as a consequence of dumped Chinese imports. In North America, Ford has already had to shutter a plant in Mexico due to a shortage of materials.

We also have warnings that US heating bills could be up 50% this winter if temperatures plunge. But in Europe, the surge in the price of natural gas also means fertilizer plants are shutting down – and ‘Fertilizer Group Warns Europe Plant Shutdowns May Turn Permanent’, says Bloomberg. There are open warnings that if things don’t change fast, food production will be hit in 2022 – ‘Europe’s gas price surge is about to hit you in the belly’, says Politico.eu. Again, the US is at the forefront, with the union at Jon Deere, a key producer of global farm and agri machinery, on strike for the first time in years.

Add that action to the long list of anecdotes pointing to an effective grass-roots revolt by workers who, post-Covid, won’t just slot back into their low-paid, under-appreciated, stressful jobs. They want Build Back Better, not rhetoric, long-term promises, and sharply declining real incomes. Even well-paid UK doctors say they don’t want to see patients in person again and would rather quit. What do you do if the supply of doctors dries up? Or truckers? Or anyone key? Goodness, this labor vs. capital thing looks *potentially* different to how we have understood it until recently!

The threat is also that any member of the US Navy who isn’t vaccinated by end-November will be thrown out of the service. I am sure the potential loss of a swathe of the men and women who maintain US military control of the oceans would in no way open up a window of opportunity for geopolitical adventurism that would then smash global supply chains completely. Interwebbish rumour is also that the White House may finally appoint a Maritime Administrator soon: just one with no logistics or military ‘sealift’ experience, which seems an odd choice when the US faces massive supply-chain problems and obvious tensions in the Indo-Pacific. To which we can add the Middle East, as even a White House negotiating team one would not want to be responsible for in a Souq –“I got that coffee pot, honey! It was a steal at $1,000! Hang on, it says Made in China underneath. Do you think that nice man will give me my money back?”— seems to be grasping that Tehran may just be playing for time in talking about coming back to nuclear talks, while advancing along the path to being a de facto nuclear threshold state. Oh, and Lebanon may be falling apart as fighting breaks out between Hamas and Hezbollah.    

Of course, we saw another decline in long US Treasury yields yesterday with 10s down 4bp, and since Tuesday they have dropped 12bp, while 2-year yields have risen slightly. If this is supposed to be on the back of a peak in PPI inflation pressures, then I repeat my offer of a port in New Mexico at a special rate, just for you. However, if it reflects that structural price pressures are NOT going away soon, and yet we are probably going to see central banks tighten policy anyway, then the curve is doing a great job of shouting ‘POLICY ERROR!’ One shudders to think what the Michigan consumer sentiment sub-indices for ‘good time to buy a house/car’ will look like when food and energy inflation rises further. The October data are out today as a warm-up.

That’s even before we consider the risks of other not-surprising surprises, such as the FT saying, Brussels urged to prepare contingency plan for UK trade war: EU countries want European Commission to be ready if Britain suspends key part of Brexit deal’. At least the UK is standing behind Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia, with London saying it will “jointly remain principled on our shared values in the face of the systematic challenges posed by China.” The EU, probably thinking about its automakers and Chinese magnesium(?), does not seem so vocal in this regard.

Meanwhile, as supply-chain decoupling is already happening via the sudden cessation of key materials exports, Microsoft has announced a split between LinkedIn and what will be NotLinkedIn just for China, where two different conversations about phosphates, refined fuels, and magnesium can take place, as well as one about the necessity of either blowing or bursting asset bubbles. As Nina Xiang, author of ‘US-China Tech War’, notes: “LinkedIn is about the last remaining big American tech firm operating in China that involves content. With it gone, the decoupling between China and the rest of the world will only deepen.”

Everyone is free to ignore the current backdrop, or to look at the PPI data and claim things are improving. Just don’t PPI on me and tell me it’s raining.

7. OIL ISSUES

A good one:  Europe’s energy crisis should be a warning sign for America.

(Isaac/EpochTimes)

Europe’s Energy Crisis Is A Warning Sign For America

 
FRIDAY, OCT 15, 2021 – 06:30 AM

Authored by Jason Isaac via The Epoch Times,

An energy crisis is rocking the world, the likes of which we haven’t seen since the 1970s. Although headlines about energy costs in faraway nations may not breach busy families’ political radar, the energy shortages and skyrocketing prices spreading across Europe and Asia are a warning sign for America.

If we allow the anti-energy, anti-prosperity climate cartel to control the political process – if Green New Deal-style policies become reality – our nation’s future will be dire indeed.

In Britain, electricity reserves could fall to as low as 4 percent of demand, with blackouts this winter all but inevitable, and petrol stations continue to sit empty. India’s “unprecedented” coal shortage has officials warning of impending power cuts as coal plants that normally carry 15 to 30 days’ reserves—and power most of the nation—now have enough fuel for two days or less.

Even China, an energy and economic powerhouse, is being forced to halt production of everything from aluminum to soybeans, further worsening global supply chain issues and potentially threatening the world’s food supply.

And this crisis isn’t limited to countries that actively embrace fossil fuels. Even Germany, decades into its unsuccessful Energiewende transition to renewable energy and supposedly a world leader in green power, is feeling the crunch. One German power plant completely ran out of coal. All those eggs in the renewable basket still weren’t enough to insulate Germany—which, despite its bombastic commitment to wind and solar, still gets most of its energy from fossil fuels—from energy shortages and skyrocketing prices.

Germans already pay the highest electricity prices in the European Union, and residents are now warned to expect rising gas bills, too.

The consequences of these energy shortages aren’t as simple as just paying a little bit more for energy. If only it were that simple.

Britain is warning its subjects to expect not only blackouts, but also energy prices rising by as much as 30 percent. This is a steep cost for even well-to-do families, let alone low-income and fixed-income households in a nation already wracked by energy poverty. Freezing deaths are on the rise in England, where over 3,000 people die needlessly every year because they can’t afford to keep their homes at a safe temperature in the winter. Studies confirm a direct correlation between rising natural gas prices and wintertime deaths.

Brits are unfortunately learning firsthand the little-known climate fact that cold is far, far deadlier than heat. And they won’t be the last country to acquire this lesson if this energy crisis isn’t stopped.

The United States hasn’t been hit hard by this crisis, but it’s only a matter of time.

Though gas prices are high, so are the prices for everything else, and the precarious nature of our nation’s energy independence is still unknown to many. But if our nation capitulates to pressure by climate alarmists to kill the American energy industry, we’ll be headed down the same path as Europe and Asia.

The threat doesn’t just come from political leaders, although President Joe Biden’s continued campaign against responsible American energy producers is a major challenge.

The rise of discriminatory environmental, social, and governance (ESG) investing – in which Wall Street firms make investment and lending choices based on political motivations – means many major banks no longer fund oil and gas exploration even if the investment would be lucrative. There are now half as many oil rigs operating as there were in 2018 even though the price per barrel is almost equal, largely due to financial pressure from Wall Street.

Many energy companies are unable to get the capital they need to continue operating. This doesn’t mean we stop using fossil fuels; it simply means we’re forced to import more from overseas companies that don’t share America’s environmental or human rights commitments. Ironically, the growing anti-fossil fuel campaign means we will have more pollution and more greenhouse gas emissions—but less prosperity for our nation.

The more our society penalizes American energy producers, the more challenging our country’s future will be. We have the power to give America a prosperous future, if we embrace the fuels that have helped our nation become a beacon of hope for the world.

8 EMERGING MARKET& AUSTRALIA ISSUES

Australia////  NEW ZEALAND//COVID/VACCINES/LOCKDOWNS

AUSTRALIA

(courtesy John Adams/Sydney)

Australia’s Greatest Public Policy Disaster since 1915

 

Dear all,

 

Australia’s public policy response to COVID-19 has been both extreme and extraordinary.

 

As the record will show, I have questioned the official narrative about COVID-19 including the real risk that COVID-19 poses to the general community.

 

I have therefore opposed most of Australia’s COVID-19 policies from the very start of the pandemic.

 

The impact of Australia’s public policy response will haunt Australia for generations to come. These impacts are vast and include impacts to:

 

  • the Australian economy (especially public sector debt);
  • the destruction of businesses and worker livelihoods;
  • mental health;
  • relationships – especially marriages;
  • the educational outcomes for Australian children;
  • suicide; and
  • personal health – especially as it relates to the rollout of experimental gene-therapy vaccines.

 

Underpinning this public policy response has been a set of scientific assumptions made by Australia’s leading epidemiologists and infectious disease experts.

 

These assumptions have been used to formulate both the epidemiological modelling and the public health advice given to Australia’s policy makers – especially the so-called “National Cabinet” (the committee consisting of the Prime Minister, State Premiers and Territory Chief Ministers).

 

Among the scientific community, there have been dissents and truth-tellers who have attempted to put forward alternative scientific explanations to COVID-19 and to warn policy makers that the current approach to mitigating the risk of COVID-19 is both unnecessary and counter-productive.

 

In my latest published article which I published my website last night (see the following link), I have published a lengthy essay which spells out one of the main scientific controversies involving the past two years – that being what is the main infection model that transmits COVID-19?

 

https://www.adamseconomics.com/post/australia-s-greatest-public-policy-disaster-since-1915

 

The entire approach to COVID-19 management in Australia has been based on the assumption that COVID-19 transmits via a rapid Person-to-Person (P-P) infection model. This is why policy makers have attempted to stop Australians from physical moving by policies such as social distancing, lockdowns, boarder closures, etc.

 

However, there are key observed COVID-19 related phenomena from over the past 21 months which the P-P infection model cannot explain.

 

Alternative explanations include “miasma” which is a scientific theory that suggests that viruses and bacteria (including coronaviruses and influenza) spread from the earth’s atmosphere down on the earth’s surface.

 

If indeed miasma has been operating during the pandemic around the world, it could well be the case that Australia’s COVID‑19 management was based on flawed and misguided science.

 

Statistical evidence from Norway, Israel and Singapore would suggest that flawed and misguided science may be at play in Australia.

 

The ultimate test however will be observed in the coming weeks in NSW.

 

On 20 September 2021 and 9 October 2021, former NSW Premier Berejiklian and current Premier Perrottet both stated that COVID-19 cases in NSW will “go through the roof” and that the NSW Health system will become “technically overwhelmed” once NSW opens up from the current lockdown.

 

Leading epidemiologists and doctors (including from the Australian Medical Association) have all made similar predictions and have warned against NSW opening up too quickly.

 

Alternatively, those scientists who follow the miasma infection model theory believe that in NSW, COVID-19 related cases, hospitalisation and cases may actually fall, not rise! (i.e., the complete opposite of the predictions of Australia’s scientific and medical establishment).

 

For those who follow me on social media – especially on Telegram, you will have seen that I have posted a series of graphs which shows that the predictions of conventional epidemiologists have not borne out in the first 96 hours since NSW opened up this past Monday.

 

Rather, COVID-19 cases, hospitalisation and ICU admissions continue to fall consistent with a trend which was first established in mid-September 2021.

 

I have already shared my essay with some policymakers in NSW and I will shortly be holding preliminary discussions with NSW parliamentarians and their advisors that the expected explosion in COVID-19 may not materialise.

 

I will make it clear that if this is indeed the case, this is not due to good fortune or the vaccines, but very likely flawed science.

 

As we wait to see how the situation plays out in NSW and Victoria, I would encourage you to read my essay. At the very least, it gives food for thought to some of the unique and peculiar COVID-19 infection patterns which have been observed across the world during the pandemic.

 

Cheers,

 

John Adams

NEW ZEALAND

INDIA

India is having a very difficult time as its energy crunch intensifies as it has a terrible power supply deficit

(zerohedge)

India’s Energy Crunch Intensifies As Power Supply Deficit Worst Since March 2016

 
THURSDAY, OCT 14, 2021 – 11:00 PM

It’s now a fact that India is teetering on the edge of a power crisis as coal shortages have left power grids with the worst deficit in years. 

This month, 80% of India’s 135 coal-fired plants had less than eight days of supplies — more than 50% of plants had two days of fuel left. For some context, the four-year average of coal inventory has been a little more than two weeks.  

We noted India’s “persistent electricity shortages” have become more widespread since the start of October as coal-fired power plants can’t keep up with demand. 

Reuters, citing data from grid operator Power System Operation Corporation (POSOCO), showed power supply dropped 750 million units short of demand throughout the first 12 days of October, primarily due to a coal shortage. The power deficit was the worst since March 2016, coming in at 1.6%. 

Northern states such as Punjab, Rajasthan, Haryana, and Uttar Pradesh, and the eastern states of Jharkhand and Bihar had some of the worst power supply deficits between 2.3% to 14.7%. 

A combination of supply factors and crashing coal imports led to this month’s power crunch that may worsen as coal supplies tighten and prices surge ahead of the Northern Hemisphere winter. 

Coal-powered energy accounted for nearly 70% of power in early October, an increasing percentage as power generation from renewables declines. 

If China is any guide, India might take steps to ration power to energy-intensive industries to maintain grid stability. 

The energy crisis is worldwide, first in Europe and China and now spreading to India. There’s reason to believe electricity shortages and blackouts could be unleashed in the US this winter. 

 

 END

Euro/USA 1.1602 UP .0012 /EUROPE BOURSES /ALL GREEN

USA/ YEN 114.33  UP  0.530 /NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.3751  UP   0.0083 

 

USA/CAN 1.2359  DOWN .0017  (  CDN DOLLAR UP 17 BASIS PTS )

 

Early FRIDAY morning in Europe, the Euro IS UP BY 12 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.1602 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 14.69 PTS OR .40% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 368.37 PTS OR 1.48% 

 

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.71% // EUROPEAN BOURSES OPENED ALL GREEN

 

Trading from Europe and ASIA

EUROPEAN BOURSES CLOSED ALL GREEN

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG  CLOSED UP 368.37 PTS OR 1.48% 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 14.09 PTS OR .40%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.71%

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 517.70 PTS OR 1.81% 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1778.15

silver:$23.22-

Early FRIDAY morning USA 10 year bond yr: 1.544% !!! UP 3 IN POINTS from THURSDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

The 30 yr bond yield 2.051 UP 3  IN BASIS POINTS from THURSDAY night.

USA dollar index early FRIDAY morning: 93.97 UP 1  CENT(S) from THURSDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers FRIDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now your closing  FRIDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.35%  UP 3  in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.081% DOWN 4/10   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.46%//  UP 2  in basis points yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:  0.87  UP 4    points in basis points yield from yesterday./

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 41 points higher than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.164% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.03% AND NOW ABOVE   THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR  FRIDAY

Closing currency crosses for FRIDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1598  UP    0.0008 or 8 basis points

USA/Japan: 114.24  UP .413 OR YEN DOWN 41  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3759 UP .0091// UP 91   BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar UP 3 basis points to 1.2371

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The USA/Yuan,  CNY: closed    ON SHORE  (CLOSED UP)..6.4357  

 

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN CLOSED (UP)..6.4352

TURKISH LIRA:  9.23  EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.081%

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 6 IN basis points from THURSDAY at 1.571 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.057 UP 4 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 93.94 DOWN 2  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for FRIDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 26,32 PTS OR 0.37% 

 

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 124.64 PTS OR 0.81% 

 

Paris CAC CLOSED UP 42.31  PTS OR  0.63% 

 

Spain IBEX CLOSED  UP 72.00  PTS OR 0.81%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 211.61 PTS OR 0.81% 

 

WTI Oil price; 82.35 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 84.74 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE RISES:    70.97  THE CROSS LOWER BY 0.43 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE HIGHER BY 43 BASIS PTS)

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.164 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM : 82.24//

BRENT :  84.70

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 1.579..UP 5 basis points…

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.046  UP 3  basis points..

EURO/USA 1.1604 UP 0.0014   ( 14 BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:114.21 UP .376 ( YEN DOWN 38 BASIS POINTS/..

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 93.94  DOWN 2  cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA: 1.3746 UP .0078  

the Turkish lira close: 9.24  DOWN 5 BASIS PTS//EXTREMELY DEADLY

the Russian rouble 71.07  UP .35  Roubles against the uSA dollar. (UP 35 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.2374 UP 2 BASIS pts

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.164%

The Dow closed UP 382.20 POINTS OR 1.09%

NASDAQ closed UP 73.91 POINTS OR 0.50%

VOLATILITY INDEX:  16.33 CLOSED DOWN 0.53

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 0.124

%//libor dropping like a stone

USA trading day in Graph Form

Stocks, Bonds, Crypto, & Copper Soar As Confidence Crashes Near Decade-Lows

 
FRIDAY, OCT 15, 2021 – 04:00 PM

This week was a tale of two halves. Stonks chopped lower into Wednesday morning, bounced off an opening dump then accelerated (despite The Fed Minutes signaled considerably more hawkish taper and rate-trajectory expectations). Nasdaq was the week’s biggest gainer (thanks to Small Caps puke today) and The Dow underperformed but only modestly…

That was the S&P’s best week since July.

Major reversal in Small Caps today however from the cash open, as the rest of the majors rallied divergently…

This week’s panic-buying has reduced the drawdown from record highs (for the S&P) to just 1.5%…

Source: Bloomberg

After Monday’s dump, every day this week has opened with a panicky short-squeeze to ignite momentum…

Source: Bloomberg

But as today’s OpEx struck early, the short-squeezers ran out of ammo…

Source: Bloomberg

Both Defensives and Cyclicals were bid this week but the latter outperformed today to win the week…

Source: Bloomberg

Sectors were all higher on the week but Utes lagged and Materials led the gains. Financials were towards the lower end of the overall performance…

Source: Bloomberg

In bank-land, earnings have sparked a notable divergence with MS leading and JPM lagging (after a buying panic renewed in WFC today)…

Source: Bloomberg

VIX was clubbed like a baby seal this week, hitting a 15 handle briefly today…Tough to see much downside for vol from here (especially given the typical post-opex bounce)

Bonds were very mixed this week with the short-end dumped and long-end well bid (2Y +8bps, 30Y -12bps)…

Source: Bloomberg

2Y yields pushed up to their highest since March 2020 and 5Y at its highest since Feb 2020…

Source: Bloomberg

The yield curve flattened dramatically this week (the biggest curve flattening week since June) with the 5s30s spread at its lowest since May 2020 as traders signaled expectations for a Fed policy error…

Source: Bloomberg

The very-short-end of the curve repriced dramatically this week – in a hawkish manner – with a full rate-hike now priced in for September 2022 (with expectations that The Fed’s taper will start in Dec and end in July 2022)…

Source: Bloomberg

And on a side note, the ‘kink’ is back and building in the T-Bill curve as the odds of a clean debt-ceiling extension in December slide…

The dollar fell for the 3rd straight day today and suffered the broke a 5-week winning streak.  The dollar has traded in a tight range for the last 3 weeks though…

Source: Bloomberg

Crypto soared higher, rising for 3rd straight week, led by Bitcoin…

Source: Bloomberg

With Bitcoin back above $60k for the first time since April (and in fact reached almost $62k today)…

Source: Bloomberg

Commodities all made gains this week (CRB all comms hit an all-time record high) but copper was the dramatic outperformed while gold lagged…

Source: Bloomberg

WTI rallied for an 8th straight week, its longest winning streak since May 2015, topping $82 for the first time since Oct 2014…

Source: Bloomberg

Copper soared this week (its best week since Nov 2016 and 2nd best week since Oct 2011), back near the May highs, as global inventories plunge…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold tagged $1800 but was unable to hold it…

Finally, you have to laugh really that stocks are surging back towards record highs on a day when consumer sentiment printed at its 2nd lowest level in a decade…

Source: Bloomberg

“Probably nothing…”

Still this chart makes us wonder if a redux is in the cards?

Source: Bloomberg

i) MORNING TRADING

 

end

ii)  USA///DEBT 

 

USA DATA

Nominal retail sales unexpectedly surge and for once Bank of America was wrong.

(zerohedge)

US (Nominal) Retail Sales Unexpectedly Surge In September

 
FRIDAY, OCT 15, 2021 – 08:38 AM

Given the flip-flopping nature of the last 5 months, US retail sales are expected to decline modestly in September (and if BofA’s excellent predictive track record continues, the drop in retail sales could be a lot worse). However, for once, BofA was way off as Retail Sales surged 0.7% MoM in September (far better than the -0.2% expected) and August’s data was revised higher from +0.7% to +0.9% MoM.

Source: Bloomberg

Core retail sales also beat expectations, rising 0.8% MoM versus +0.5% expected (and saw higher revisions).

It appears that surging COVID infections in August and September curbed demand for services such as travel and entertainment and leading Americans to shift their spending toward goods.

Under the hoods, Health and personal store sales and Electronics saw declines in September while Sporting Goods soared and gas station spending rose as receipts at restaurants and bars, the only services-spending category in the report, rose 0.3% in September after a 0.2% increase in the prior month.

The total retail sales rose back near record highs and remains dramatically dislocated from the previous trend…

So after an abysmal payrolls print (stagflation on), the better than expected claims data and a CPI print that was slightly lower than expected (but still high) offset the stagflation worries and today’s retail sales print confirms that ‘stagflation off’ narrative. However, bear in mind that today’s retail sales print is ‘nominal’ and so perhaps reflects more on soaring inflation than consumers’ willingness to spend more.

end

UMich Sentiment Slumps To Second-Lowest Since 2011, Inflation Expectations Spike

 
FRIDAY, OCT 15, 2021 – 10:08 AM

Following September’s modest rebound from Q2’s plunge, early October data from UMich sentiment survey was expected to show the rebound continued, but it did not. Preliminary October sentiment slipped from 72.8 to 71.4 (well below the 73.1 expected). That is the second-lowest level since 2011, as Americans grew more concerned about both current conditions and the economic outlook.

The gauge of current conditions fell to 77.9, the lowest since April 2020. A measure of future expectations declined to 67.2

Source: Bloomberg

Democrats’ confidence picked up modestly in early October…

Source: Bloomberg

However, UMich notes that the adage “never let a crisis go to waste” mirrors the range and scale of Biden’s progressive proposals, but consumers see it as too risky a strategy.

When asked about their confidence in economic policies, favorable evaluations fell to 19% in early October from Biden’s honeymoon high of 31% in April, while unfavorable policy evaluations rose to 48% in early October from 32% in April.

Buying Conditions for homes rebounded very modestly from 40 year lows but buying conditions for vehicles and appliances pushed to new record lows…

Source: Bloomberg

And finally, inflation expectations for the next year surged to their highest since 2008 (as longer-term inflation expectations dipped)…

Source: Bloomberg

“When asked to describe in their own words why conditions were unfavorable, net price increases were cited more frequently than any time since inflation peaked at over 10% in 1978-80,” Richard Curtin, director of the survey, said in a statement.

iii) a  IMPORTANT USA/CONTAINER LOGJAMS//shortages//inflation

Empty Christmas Stockings? Don’t Blame COVID, Blame California

 
FRIDAY, OCT 15, 2021 – 11:30 AM

Authored by Andrea Widburg via AmericanThinker.com,

The conventional wisdom from the left is that COVID is the reason that shipping containers are in the waters off California with no stevedores or truckers available to take care of them.

The implication, of course, is that if people would stop being selfish and take the vaccines, the whole problem would magically vanish.

That’s nonsense.

As a couple of astute articles explain, the problem is that California has passed two laws—one for “climate change” and the other as a sop to the unions—that destroyed much of California’s trucking industry.

Add in woes unique to the industry and COVID payments that discourage people from working and…voila!…empty Christmas stockings.

Stephen Green, at PJ Media, explains some of what’s going on.

As a preliminary matter, truckers are aging out of the job and new ones aren’t coming along. Because federal law requires that truckers be at least 21, kids who leave school at 17 or 18 get involved in other careers, leaving trucker shortfalls. Women don’t offset this problem because, as is typical for most physically difficult jobs, it’s not their thing. Those are long-term problems.

The short-term problem, though, is that California has passed laws taking trucks off the road:

Twitter user Jerry Oakley reminds us that “Carriers domiciled in California with trucks older than 2011 model, or using engines manufactured before 2010, will need to meet the Board’s new Truck and Bus Regulation beginning in 2020.” Otherwise, “Their vehicles will be blocked from registration with the state’s DMV,” according to California law.

“The requirement is to purchase electric trucks which do not exist.”

Sundance, at Conservative Treehouse, expands on this, explaining that the EPA reached an agreement with the California Air Resource Board…

…to shut down semi tractor rigs that were non-compliant with new California emission standards. [snip] In effect, what this 2020 determination and settlement created was an inability of half the nation’s truckers from picking up anything from the Port of LA or Port of Long Beach. Virtually all private owner operator trucks and half of the fleet trucks that are used for moving containers across the nation were shut out.

In an effort to offset the problem, transportation companies started using compliant trucks (low emission) to take the products to the California state line, where they could be transferred to non-compliant trucks who cannot enter California.   However, the scale of the problem creates an immediate bottleneck that builds over time. It doesn’t matter if the ports start working 24/7, they are only going to end up with even more containers waiting on a limited amount of available trucks.

That’s Problem No. 1.

Problem No. 2, again according to Green, is California’s infamous AB-5, the law that, as a sop to the Democrats’ beloved unions, killed the gig economy:

“Traditionally the ports have been served by Owner Operators,” Oakley says, who are non-union. But under AB-5, “California has now banned Owner Operators.”

Just like the union longshoremen, union truckers work under a whole host of work rules that simply can’t accommodate crisis conditions like the ones in Los Angeles.

(Incidentally, Green says that AB-5’s language is included in the “Build Back Better” bill in Congress.)

All of this means that Biden’s grandstanding about having the ports operate 24/7 won’t make a difference. The greenies and the unions killed the infrastructure to unload those ships, with COVID restrictions, trucking restrictions, and free money landing the coup de grâce that led to this situation. Biden does have the emergency power to order those California laws in abeyance, but you know he’s not going to do so.

But of course, the more serious underlying problem is that, in a distant, wonderful past, America didn’t need to rely on containers from Asia to fill her store shelves and Christmas stockings. America was a manufacturing dynamo that fulfilled American needs and still had enough left over for the rest of the world. Those things were well-made, too.

Thanks to our Devil’s bargain with communist China, we have no manufacturing sector and are utterly dependent on China, both for things we like and things we need. Biden’s inflationary politics and crackdown on fossil fuels mean that it will be virtually impossible for a renaissance in American manufacturing. Trump tried to stop this situation but China owns so much of America’s political and industrial class that the pushback shackled his presidency and pushed him straight out of the White House.

It’s a depressing scenario but the rosy side is that China’s got a problem if America can’t open the door to her products. Add to this the disastrous collapse in China’s real property sector and China may be hurting as badly as we are.

end

Report out that 721,000 retail workers picked up and quit in August ahead of Christmas hiring

(Howland/RetailDive)

As Retailers Shaped Holiday Hiring Plans In August, A Record 721K Retail Workers Picked Up And Quit

 
FRIDAY, OCT 15, 2021 – 12:50 PM

By Daphne Howland of RetailDive,

Brief:

  • Retail workers in August walked out on their jobs at one of the highest rates in the nation, with a total 721,000 quitting that month, according to the latest numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

  • Their quit rate — which the Labor Department in its release said “can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs” — was 4.7% in August, a high since April. In the wider labor market, the overall quitting rate rose to a series high 2.9%, while the rate of layoffs and discharges was little changed at 0.9%, per the report.

  • Job openings in retail are piling up just as the holidays approach, with 1.2 million retail jobs open in August this year, compared to 734,000 a year ago. But retailers are falling behind, hiring 911,000 in August this year, compared to 922,000 last year.

Retail workers’ willingness to quit helps explain why hiring has been short of expectations in the last two months.

Employers didn’t fill as many jobs as expected during August or September, despite the end of many unemployment benefits and the beginning of school, as 721K workers picked up and left in the month of August.

“The end of emergency unemployment insurance and kids returning to campus this September was not the silver bullet for the jobs recovery many hoped for,” Wells Fargo’s Sarah House and Michael Pugliese said.

The situation is leading retailers to sweeten their job offers as they prep for the holidays, and many plan to hire workers to stay on beyond the season, according to a report from outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas. Employers are increasingly working to address burnout, raise wages, offer perks like child care and family support, and provide avenues for career advancement, according to Andrew Challenger, the firm’s senior vice president.

“While job cuts are at record lows, hiring announcements exploded in September, a month when many big box retailers, shipping, and warehousing companies announce seasonal hiring plans,” Challenger said in a statement. “This year, many hiring announcements are for permanent workers rather than seasonal ones.”

end

Toymaker Slams Biden: “Too Little Too Late” To Save Christmas

 
FRIDAY, OCT 15, 2021 – 01:07 PM

A top toy executive joined Fox News’ “America’s Newsroom” Thursday and warned President Biden’s port directive this week to operate 24/7 to alleviate snarled supply chains is “too little, too late” to save Christmas.  

MGA Entertainment CEO Isaac Larian said, “whether the ports are open 24 hours a day or 48 hours a day, you cannot get labor. If you cannot get labor, you cannot get trucks, you cannot get the merchandise out.”

“I think this directive is too little, too late. And frankly, it’s a political gimmick to me,” Larian said. 

At the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, a point of entry for 40% of all US containerized goods, more than 80 container ships are at anchor and 64 at berths across the twin ports. The backlog doesn’t stop there as it takes well more than a week for entry into the port. Once the containers are unloaded, it takes another week to leave the port to warehouses. 

Larian blames port congestion on labor shortages due to Biden’s unemployment policies that incentivized people to stay home and collect stimulus checks than work.  

If you’re paying people to stay home and they make more money just staying home than working, they don’t want to come to work,” he said.

Larian’s company sells children’s toys. One of his toys, called “LOL Surprise Movie Magic,” will only be able to get 60% of product demand out to retailers and e-commerce warehouses due to supply shortages. 

“A lot of kids are not going to be able to get their LOL Movie Magic surprise under the Christmas tree or Hanukkah tree this year,” he said.

With 71 days until Christmas, supply chain woes worsen, especially in southern China, where multiple typhoons have closed ports and created even more significant backlogs.

Global port congestion has brought uncertainty that other consumer goods won’t arrive in time for the upcoming holiday season.  

Here’s part of Larian’s interview: 

Biden’s port directive should’ve been implemented months ago, ahead of the fall restocking period. 

end

b) USA COVID/VACCINE UPDATES//VACCINE MANDATES

Now the navy announces plans to expel those refusing to take the poisonous COVID vaccine and they will also revoke all benefits.

(zerohedge)

Navy Announces Plans To Expel Those Refusing Covid Vaccine, Revoke Benefits

 
THURSDAY, OCT 14, 2021 – 09:20 PM

At the end of August the Pentagon initially announced a mandate for military personnel across all armed service branches, ordering them to “immediately begin” Covid vaccination. A memo issued by Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin at the time directed the Secretaries of the Military Departments to “immediately begin full vaccination of all members of the Armed Forces under DoD authority on active duty or in the Ready Reserve, including the National Guard, who are not fully vaccinated against COVID-19.”

However, when the mandate went out itremained unclear precisely what repercussions military members would face if they don’t comply – this also as a number of lawsuits have since been filed against the DoD by troops arguing that the order violates individual medical freedom. On Thursday the US Navy made it clear to their personnel: receive the jab by November 28 for be expelled from the service

 

Via US Navy file image

“With Covid-19 vaccines now mandatory for all military members, the Navy has announced plans to start processing for discharge those who refuse vaccination without a pending or approved exemption,” the US Navy said in the statement.

The Pentagon had so far remained ambiguous over whether servicemembers would actually be booted after the mandate cut-off date. With Thursday’s Navy announcement, other branches are expected to soon follow suit.

The AFP notes that “The navy said that 98 percent of its 350,000 active duty members had begun or completed the vaccination process.” The rate among all branches combined is about equal – or just under this, but Pentagon officials worry about lagging vaccination rates in the reserves, given recent reports indicate just 80% of the reserves have had at least one dose. 

The AFP report underscores that if official Pentagon policy becomes to expel troops across the board for refusing the shot, this could create a significant problem for US defense readiness, given it would inevitably involve a mass exit of troops.

“If all the services take the same hard line that the navy is taking, itrisks losing as many as 46,000 troops, though presumably more will accept vaccinations before the deadline,” the report underscores. 

What remains is the question of the terms under which they would be discharged at the end of November. The Navy said in the Thursday announcement those kicked out for not taking the vaccine “will receive no lower than general discharge under honorable conditions.” 

However, there could be penalties like being forced to pay back certain training and education costs – or more significantly the loss of post military service benefits, as the official Navy guidance spells out“This type of discharge could result in the loss of some veterans’ benefits.”

The Hill details based on the statement that processing discharges might begin immediately

With the new guidelines in place, administrative actions can begin immediately against those who refuse the vaccine who do not have a pending or approved exemption request.

Those who refuse the vaccine will not be allowed to be promoted, advance, reenlist, or execute orders, with the exception of separation orders, until the CCDA has completed disposition of their case, the guidance notes.

Interestingly, the Navy while issuing the harsh punitive plan of action says it will recognize religious exemptions. Likely pastors, priests, and rabbis near military bases and at naval ports might begin to see a flood of random phone calls from “vaccine hesitant” military members seeking a way out of the impasse. 

end

Washington Finally Abandons International Travel Restrictions Imposed By Trump

 
FRIDAY, OCT 15, 2021 – 09:50 AM

After more than 18 months of barring the vast majority of travelers from crossing into the US (the bans started with Chinese and Europeans imposed by President Trump, before expanding on to other high-risk countries) the US will finally open its borders to vaccinated foreign travelers (provided they have received an ‘approved’ vaccine, ie not the Russian jab) starting Nov. 8.

The good news is that foreign travelers who have family in the US will be able to visit with them this holiday season (so long as they don’t start a fight on the plane). A White House official said that travel options will be expanded for those who have gotten their shots, while those who haven’t will face tremendous pressure to do so.

According to Bloomberg, the new measures are the biggest changes to American travel policy since the early days of the pandemic. Finally, the US is replacing a system that flatly barred most foreign nationals coming directly from certain places, including Europe, India, Brazil and China.

In its place, under the new system, vaccinated people who have had a negative test in the prior 72 hours will be able to board a flight to the US as long as they share contact tracing information. Unvaccinated foreigners will be generally barred from entry, while unvaccinated Americans will need a negative COVID test.

The move was first announced Sept. 20, but the Biden administration didn’t immediately say when the measures would take effect. Airlines, battered by the coronavirus crisis, have applauded the move. Transatlantic flights between the US and Europe (typically stocked with HNW travelers) have been one of the most profitable routes for airlines.

This isn’t the first time the US has dialed back restriction: Last month, the US announced that foreigners from the UK and EU would be the first to be exempted from the travel restrictions. The move was first announced Sept. 20, but the Biden Admin didn’t disclose exactly when the measures would kick in.

The Nov. 8 date coincides with a change in air travel rules, as well as an opening along land borders with Canada and Mexico that had been announced earlier this week.

The decision to accept all WHO-approved jabs, including those not used in the US, means millions of travelers who have received doses developed by AstraZeneca as well as by China’s Sinopharm and Sinovac Biotech will still be allowed to enter

 

END

A LUNATIC!

an expert?  calls for denying life saving hospital treatment to the unvaccinated?

.

“Expert” Calls For Denying Life-Saving Hospital Treatment To The Unvaccinated

 
FRIDAY, OCT 15, 2021 – 03:43 PM

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

An “expert” whose work on cybersecurity has been cited by the NY Times and the Washington Post announced on Twitter that the unvaccinated should be denied life-saving hospital treatment because they are “not fit for life on earth.”

Chris Vickery, who describes himself as a “data breach hunter” also brags about how his “findings have contributed to investigations conducted by the FTC, FBI, SEC, Secret Service, HHS, SSCI, and more.”

During an unhinged Twitter rant, Vickery asserted that a time limit of December 1st should be put on people refusing to take the COVID-19 vaccine.

“Set a date now. After that date, no hospital services for the willingly unvaccinated,” he screeched.

“Then, after the chosen date, anyone choosing to refuse the covid-19 vaccine can deal with the consequences of that choice alone,” added Vickery.

After claiming there was no “legitimate” reason for anyone to refuse the shot, Vickery ended his rant with a demented call for such people to “separate from the surviving world.”

“Human society isn’t a suicide pact. If you are too dumb to get the covid vaccine, then you are not fit for continued life on Earth.”

“That’s your choice, but the consequences of refusing to get the vaccine is you having to wave a fond farewell and separate from the surviving world.”

Some joked that this was yet another example of the familiar trend of blue checkmarks on Twitter aggressively displaying their virtue while actually calling for mass genocide.

Others directly savaged Vickery for his heartless inhumanity.

“When you were a child, did you ever envisage what a terrible person you would be in adulthood?” asked one.

“So much for “healthcare is a human right,” quipped another.

Vickery later bragged about the number of people he had blocked on Twitter in the aftermath of his comments.

How brave of him.

As we previously highlighted, numerous hospitals across America are already denying life-saving organ transplants to unvaccinated patients.

Meanwhile, in the UK, patients deemed to be “racist,” “sexist” or “homophobic” can also be denied treatment under NHS rules.

As we document in the video below, similar rhetoric is being spewed by Keith Olbermann and others who are intent on whipping up ‘New Normal’ cult members into a frenzied, hysterical hatefest targeting those who choose not to take the jab.

end

c) uSA economic commentaries

USA heating bill may soar to 50% this winter

(zerohedge) 

Brace For Price Shock: Americans’ Heating Bills To Soar Up To 50% This Winter

 
THURSDAY, OCT 14, 2021 – 06:20 PM

So far, Americans have been watching the money-depleting energy crisis that hit Europe and Asia with detached bemusement: after all, while US energy prices are higher, they are nowhere near the hyperinflation observed in Europe. That is about to change because as the Energy Information Administration warned this week, much higher heating bills are coming this winter.

According to the IEA’s October winter fuels outlook (pdf), nearly half of U.S. households that warm their homes with mainly natural gas can expect to spend an average of 30% more on their “multi-year high” bills compared with last year. The agency added that bills would be 50% higher if the winter is 10% colder than average and 22% higher if the winter is 10% warmer than average.

The forecast rise in costs, according to the report, will result in an average natural-gas home-heating bill of $746 from Oct. 1 to March 31, compared with about $573 during the same period last year.

The IEA projects that U.S. households will spend more on energy this winter than they have in several years due to soaring energy prices—natural-gas futures have this year reached a seven-year high—and the likelihood of a more frigid winter than what most of the country saw last year.

As the Epoch Times adds, propane costs are forecasted to rise by 54%, heating oil costs to rise by 43%, natural gas costs to rise by 30%, and electricity costs to rise by 6 percent. And with natural gas consumption projected to rise by 3% this winter, households are expected to spend $746 this winter, up from $573 last winter.

The increase in natural gas heating costs varies by region with the Midwest U.S. leading the price hike at a 45% increase from last winter, and the Northeast expecting a hike of 14%.

Nearly half of all U.S. households use natural gas as the primary source of heating. Households relying on heating oil over winter will spend $1,734 over winter, relative to $1,212 last winter.

Houses in Northeastern regions will be more affected by the price hike as nearly one in five homes in the region rely on heating oil as their primary source of space heating. The projection is based on the Brent crude oil price, which helps determine the prices of U.S. petroleum products.

“The higher forecast Brent crude oil price this winter primarily reflects a decline in global oil inventories compared with last winter as a result of global oil demand that has risen amid restrained production levels from OPEC+ countries,” according to the EIA.

While most households commonly use electricity for heating, 41% rely on electric heat pumps or heaters as their primary source for space heating. These homes should expect to spend $1,268 this winter season, relative to $1196 last year. This projection accounts for 3 percent more residential electricity demand with more Americans working from home, a colder winter, as well as a rise in fuel costs for power generation.

“During the first seven months of this year, the cost of natural gas delivered to U.S. electric generators averaged $4.97/MMBtu, which is more than double the average cost in 2020,” stated EIA.

The 5 % of U.S. homes using propane as the primary means to heat can expect to spend $631 more on average compared to last winter, depending on the location.

Residents of the Midwest can spend an average of $1,805 this winter, reflecting higher propane prices and a 2 percent increased consumption.

Propane prices have been at their highest since February 2014 due to increased global demand, relatively flat U.S. propane production, and limited oil supplies from OPEC+ countries.

The looming increase, on top of rising prices for many consumer goods and commodities, is likely to cause stress for Americans at many income levels. Should prices rise too far, a repeat of the mass protests observed across European capitals denouncing soaring energy costs, is likely. Economists warn that the larger utility bills are most likely to affect those households still hobbled by the Covid-19 pandemic.

“We are very concerned about the affordability of heat this winter for all customers, but in particular those who struggle every day to afford their utility services,” says Karen Lusson, a staff attorney for the National Consumer Law Center, a nonprofit that advocates on consumer issues for low-income communities.

Sounds like another laser-guided stimmy courtesy of the Biden admin is coming.

END

iv) Swamp commentaries/

This is interesting!.  Hunter Biden and Joe Biden had intermingling on some bank accounts and this may cause a special counsel to look into their devious plans.

(Jonathan Turley)

Is It Time For A Special Counsel On The Hunter Biden Scandal?

 
THURSDAY, OCT 14, 2021 – 05:20 PM

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

“Come on H this is linked to Celtic’s account.” Those nine words from a retired Secret Service agent to Hunter Biden in recently released emails may prove a nasty complication for some in Washington who have struggled to contain the blowback from the still-unfolding scandal linked to Hunter Biden’s infamous laptop.

“Celtic” was the Secret Service code name for Joe Biden, and recent disclosures may puncture the media’s cone-of-silence around the scandal. The emails link President Biden to his son’s accounts and indicate a comingling of funds with money coming from controversial foreign sources.  Even more embarrassing, the shared account many have been used to pay a Russian prostitute named “Yanna.”

The comingling of funds is the latest contraction of President Biden’s repeated claims that he was unaware and uninvolved in past dealings by his son. Given these links, there are legitimate questions of why the Justice Department has not sought a special counsel in the ongoing investigation of alleged money-laundering and tax violations linked to the president’s son. More importantly, even if there are no criminal charges, there is now a compelling need for an independent report on the alleged influence peddling operation by Hunter, his uncle James Biden, and potentially his father, President Biden.

In the latest disclosures from the laptop, a former secret service agent reportedly texted Hunter on May 24, 2018, when he was holed up with a Russian prostitute in an expensive room at The Jeremy Hotel in Los Angeles. Hunter wired the woman $25,000. That alone was nothing out of the ordinary for Hunter who, while his father served as vice president, seemed to divide his time equally between influence-peddling and personal debaucheries.

Hunter clearly only had influence and access to sell. We know now that foreign interests gave Hunter millions at a time that he admits that he was a crack addict and alcoholic — in his words, “Drinking a quart of vodka a day by yourself in a room is absolutely, completely debilitating,” as well as “smoking crack around the clock.”

However, the tranche of emails raises a new and disturbing element: the possible mixing of accounts and funds between Hunter and his father. If true, President Biden could be directly implicated in ongoing investigations into his son’s money transfers and dealings.

Most notable are the new emails from Eric Schwerin, his business partner at the Rosemont Seneca consultancy, referencing the payment of household bills for both Joe Biden and Hunter Biden. He also notes that he was transferring money from Joe Biden. If true, the communications indicate that some of President Biden’s personal expenses were paid out of shared accounts with Hunter, including accounts that may have been used to pay for prostitutes. Rosemont Seneca is directly involved in the alleged influence peddling schemes and questionable money transfers from Chinese and Russian sources.

Schwerin also was involved in President Biden’s taxes and discussions of a book deal for the then-vice president; he popped up in the donation of Biden’s official papers to the University of Delaware, with restrictions on access.

President Biden has long insisted that that his son did “nothing wrong.” That is obviously untrue. One can argue over whether Hunter committed any crime, but few would say that there is nothing wrong with raw influence peddling worth millions with foreign entities. The public has a legitimate reason to know whether the President or his family ran an influence peddling operation worth millions.

Given this record, there is little reason for the public to trust what it is reading about the scandal. The media has long refused to investigate the allegations or even report on emails contradicting the President. This was most evident when social media like Twitter actually blocked postings on the laptop or its content before the election. Powerful figures then issued false statements about the scandal to the public. Committee Chairman Adam Schiff who assured the pubic that the allegations against “this whole smear on Joe Biden comes from the Kremlin.” Some 50 former intelligence officials, including Obama’s CIA directors John Brennan and Leon Panetta, also insisted the laptop story was likely the work of Russian intelligence. The laptop is now recognized as genuine.

This is not the first contradiction for President Biden in his repeated denials of knowing anything about his son’s business dealings. Hunter himself contradicted his father’s repeated denial. Likewise, a key business associate of Hunter Biden, Anthony Bobulinski, confirmed the authenticity of the emails and accused Joe Biden of lying about his involvement. Bobulinski has detailed a meeting with Joe Biden in a hotel to go over the dealings.

Past emails included discussions of offering access to then-Vice President Biden. They also include alleged payments to Joe Biden. In one email, there is a discussion of a proposed equity split of “20” for “H” and “10 held by H for the big guy?” Bobulinski confirmed that “H” was used for Hunter Biden and that his father was routinely called “the big guy” in these discussions.

Just to make things more concerning is Hunter Biden’s recent acknowledgement that one of his laptops may have been stolen by Russian agents and was likely being used for blackmail purposes. The fact that the president’s son admitted that Russians may have intentionally seized one of his laptops during a drug binge, in order to blackmail him, raises serious potential national security concerns — especially if any of the emails include compromising information about the president direct benefiting from the very same accounts used by his son.

That creates a rather nasty problem at the Justice Department. Federal regulations allow the appointment of a special counsel when it is in the public interest and an “investigation or prosecution of that person or matter by a United States Attorney’s Office or litigating Division of the Department of Justice would present a conflict of interest for the Department or other extraordinary circumstances.”

I do not see direct evidence of criminal conduct by President Biden even if he lied about his past knowledge of this son’s conduct. Indeed, influence peddling is not a per se crime even for Hunter. However, one value of a Special Counsel is the expectation of a report that can address whether the family engaged in influence peddling with foreign powers and whether foreign powers may have acquired compromising material from these laptop files.

In 2017, Democratic members activists were adamant that the Justice Department should carry out an investigation involving President Trump and his family.  Then-Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) insisted that, without a special counsel, “every American will rightfully suspect … a coverup.”

There is already a federal criminal investigation into these matters involving Hunter Biden, and the latest emails now link President Biden receiving money and benefits from related accounts as well as key players. Even if one questions a direct conflict of interest, it is hard to deny the towering appearance of a conflict in the ongoing investigation.

“The Big Guy” is now president and his administration is handling an investigation that could have political as well as legal implications for him and his family. It may be time for a special counsel.

END

They are both trying to figure out how to breast feed

(zerohedge)

Pete Buttigieg Enjoys 2nd Month Of Paternity Leave As Supply Chain Crisis Worsens

 
FRIDAY, OCT 15, 2021 – 01:28 PM

US Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg is on his second month of paid paternity leave – leaving an empty post as the Biden supply chain crisis spirals further out of control.

According to Politico, “Buttigieg’s office told West Wing Playbook that the secretary has actually been on paid leave since mid-August to spend time with his husband, Chasten, and their two newborn babies.”

For the first four weeks, he was mostly offline except for major agency decisions and matters that could not be delegated,” said a DOT spokesperson, adding “He has been ramping up activities since then.”

The failed 2020 presidential candidate will “continue to take some time over the coming weeks to support his husband and take care of his new children.”

That said, while Pete hasn’t been able to resolve the dozens of container ships currently stuck off the coast of California, he has been making the rounds on cable TV – appearing on MSNBC, CNBC, CNN, Bloomberg and NPR – and attended a high-profile meeting with President Biden to discuss the supply chain catastrophe.

In addition to shortages, the ongoing supply chain disruptions have caused prices to rise – which of course affects lower-income families the most – with the cost of some children’s toys having risen as much as 10% ahead of the holiday season, according to the Toy Association.

“It’s hitting us at the worst time of the year, which is the holidays,” said association President Steve Pasierb.

Meanwhile, top toy executive Isaac Larian of MGA Entertainment told Fox News on Thursday that “whether the ports are open 24 hours a day or 48 hours a day, you cannot get labor. If you cannot get labor, you cannot get trucks, you cannot get the merchandise out.”

As we noted earlier, the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, a point of entry for 40% of all US containerized goods, more than 80 container ships are at anchor and 64 at berths across the twin ports. The backlog doesn’t stop there as it takes well more than a week for entry into the port. Once the containers are unloaded, it takes another week to leave the port to warehouses. 

Unfortunately for poor families struggling to afford basic needs this year amid horrendous inflation, the US transportation secretary is MIA.

King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories./ of the day

Expiry manipulators were bestowed with favorable conditions on Thursday.

  • BAC, WFC, USB, MS, and C reported great earnings – via reserve releases
  • September PPI 0.5% m/m, 0.6% expected
  • September Core PPI 0.2%, 0.4% expected
  • Initial Jobless Claims fell to 293k from 329k; 320k was expected
  • Continuing Jobless Claims declined to 2.593m from 2.727m; 2.67m was expected

Though September PPI was 0.1 better than expected, the 8.6% y/y increases was “largest advance since 12-month data were first calculated in Nov 2010”, and a record six straight months of record increases.

Producer inflation set record for sixth straight month
Producer prices rose at the fastest annual pace on record for the sixth straight month in September as supply-chain bottlenecks and materials shortages continued to drive costs higher…
https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/producer-inflation-set-record-for-sixth-straight-month

@htsfhickey: WSJ headline (less than 2 hrs ago): “Labor Shortage Is Here to Stay.” Story: “Many (of the economists the WSJ polled) expect the labor shortage to last at least several more years, and some say it’s permanent.” No longer “transitory” pressures on inflation (Headline changed to 4.3 Million Workers Are Missing. Where Did They Go?  Why did the WSJ make the change?)
https://twitter.com/htsfhickey/status/1448708780414341128?t=ZtOtfioUPBLRZz68LDRcYA&s

Biden’s Chief of Staff Calls Inflation A ‘High Class Problem’
White House chief of staff Ronald Klain gave a full-throated endorsement of a former Obama administration official who argued that the current inflation and supply chain chaos impacts only high class Americans.  “Most of the economic problems we’re facing (inflation, supply chains, etc.) are high class problems. We wouldn’t have had them if the unemployment rate was still 10 percent. We would instead have had a much worse problem,” wrote Jason Furman, a Harvard professor and former member of President Barack Obama’s administration…  https://dailycaller.com/2021/10/14/biden-ron-klain-inflation-high-class/

@MarkMeadows: The Biden WH downplaying rising prices and inflation actually makes perfect sense when you remember: Biden’s government is full of career bureaucrats who have never run a business, had to meet payroll, or operate within margins. Of course, they think these are small problems.

Weekly jobless claims drop below 300,000 for the first time since March 2020 https://t.co/yVnOPV7ApW

Fed’s Daly: it’s time for taper, but talk of rate hikes ‘premature’
San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly on Thursday said that inflation and employment had made enough progress for the U.S. central bank to begin dialing down its monthly bond buying but is far from ready for interest rate hikes….
https://financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/feds-daly-its-time-for-taper-but-talk-of-rate-hikes-premature

Fed should pursue faster taper, inflation levels “concerning” -Bullard – Current high levels of inflation may not abate as soon as many U.S. Federal Reserve policymakers expect
https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-fed-bullard/fed-should-pursue-faster-taper-inflation-levels-concerning-bullard-idUSKBN2H41MP

Langer Consumer Comfort declined to 51.2 in September from 53.4 in August.

@DallasFed: From 2007 to 2019, the Texas birth rate declined from 79 to 62 births per 1,000 women, while nationally the birth rate fell from 69 to 58Lower birth rates are associated with less growth and a more rapidly aging population and slower economic expansionhttps://t.co/AjQgHA71l8

A lower birth rate destroys government Ponzi Schemes like Social Security and deficit spending.

Metals Hit Record High, Zinc Soars as Energy Crisis Cuts Supply
Base metals soared, led by zinc’s surge to its highest price since 2007 after European smelters became the latest casualties in a global energy crisis that’s knocking supply offline and heaping pressure on manufacturers.  A gauge of six industrial metals hit an all-time high on the London Metal Exchange, as zinc rose as much as 6.9%. Aluminum, one of the most energy-intensive commodities, touched the highest since 2008. Copper traded briefly over the $10,000-a-ton mark, and spreads are pointing to a sharply tighter market — spot copper contracts are trading at the biggest premium over futures in nearly a decade as global inventories shrink…
    Energy shortages drive up costs for electricity and natural gas, threatening more inflationary pressure from rising commodity prices…
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-14/zinc-surges-to-highest-since-2007-as-energy-crisis-deepens
For NO good reason, the Big Guy surfaced to pitch vaccines for children.  Is he stooging for big pharma?

Biden: “We are ready. We have purchased enough vaccines for all children, between the ages of 5 and 11, in the United States…families will be able to sleep easier at night knowing their kids are protected.”
https://twitter.com/Breaking911/status/1448706406257991683?t=9oJNZv9y-1R2ONzzvrlTvw&s=09

Our grandkids’ pediatrician, a few months ago, said NO Covid vaccines until the kids are 12.

@DrEliDavid: Vaccines are widely available. Covid is not going to vanish. Excess mortality has gone down to zero in most countries. There is no reason to pretend we are in a pandemic. There is no reason for mandates, Covid passes, and travel restrictions.

NBA Star Says the Jab Gave Him Blood Clots That Ended His Season, Maybe His Whole Career
NBA player Brandon Goodwin suffered blood clots shortly after he got the COVID-19 jab… (The Hawks) were just like, ‘Don’t say anything about it, don’t tell anybody. I’m like, ‘Bruh, what?’”.
https://djhjmedia.com/rich/nba-star-says-the-jab-gave-him-blood-clots-that-ended-his-season-maybe-his-whole-career/

Biden continues newfound presidential tradition, turns back on reporters and exits without taking question   https://www.foxnews.com/media/biden-turns-back-on-reporters-exits-without-taking-questions

#EmptyShelvesJoe trending on Twitter amid Biden’s supply chain crisis https://trib.al/s4QVRVP

@bespokeinvest: The last hour of the trading day has been rough this year.  Only owning SPY in the last hour would be down over 11% YTD.  https://t.co/M2kCQdZHrL

Manipulators perform much of their deeds before the NYSE open and early in the session.  Retail traders pig out on the NYSE open and minutes after the NYSE open.  Without organic buyers, traders must scramble during the final hour to unload.

Fed Balance Sheet: +$16.91B; US Treasuries +$16.647B  https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/20211014/

Today – It’s October expiration for options.  There has been unremitting and resolute manipulation to prop up equity prices by some titanic force or forces.  There is no telling when and how this will end. 

The grand expiry manipulation to squeeze expiring October calls appeared yesterday.  Is the expiry upside play over?  Beaucoup OTM (out of the money) SPY October puts traded yesterday.  ~642,000 puts traded among SPY October 442, 441, 440, and 439 strike prices.  SPY closed at 442.50.  Is a downside manipulation possible today?  It is strictly a roulette market today.  ESZs are +4.00 at 21:00 ET.

Is it Time for a Special Counsel on the Hunter Biden Scandal? By Jonathan Turley
“Come on H this is linked to Celtic’s account.” Those nine words from a retired Secret Service agent to Hunter Biden in recently released emails may prove a nasty complication for some in Washington who have struggled to contain the blowback from the still-unfolding scandal linked to Hunter Biden’s infamous laptop. “Celtic” was the Secret Service code name for Joe Biden…The emails link President Biden to his son’s accounts and indicate a comingling of funds with money coming from controversial foreign sources
    The comingling of funds is the latest contraction of President Biden’s repeated claims that he was unaware and uninvolved in past dealings by his son. Given these links, there are legitimate questions of why the Justice Department has not sought a special counsel in the ongoing investigation of alleged money-laundering and tax violations linked to the president’s son. More importantly, even if there are no criminal charges, there is now a compelling need for an independent report on the alleged influence peddling operation by Hunter, his uncle James Biden, and potentially his father, President Biden…
    President Biden has long insisted that that his son did “nothing wrong.” That is obviously untrue…
    The media has long refused to investigate the allegations or even report on emails contradicting the President…“The Big Guy” is now president and his administration is handling an investigation that could have political as well as legal implications for him and his family. It would be time for a special counsel.   https://jonathanturley.org/2021/10/14/is-it-time-for-a-special-counsel-on-the-hunter-biden-scandal/

@JackPosobiec: Biden fell completely asleep ‘chin-to-chest’ at his nephew’s wedding on Monday and when staff woke him up he would only eat a sandwich from Capriotti’s, per Pennsylvania worker at the event.  “Asleep thru entire ceremony, and kept nodding off during reception.  Jill takes a stern, caretaker tone with him when he’s groggy. He decided he wasn’t going to eat what the chef had prepared and only wanted Capriottis.”

NY Post cover: Zuck’s Buck$ How Facebook boss gave $419M to get Biden elected
He funded a targeted, private takeover of government election operations by nominally nonpartisan — but demonstrably ideological — nonprofit organizations…This unprecedented merger of public election offices with private resources and personnel is an acute threat to our republic and should be the focus of electoral reform efforts moving forward…
https://nypost.com/2021/10/13/mark-zuckerberg-spent-419m-on-nonprofits-ahead-of-2020-election-and-got-out-the-dem-vote/
     @nedryun: According to all the current laws on the books regarding 501c3 activities this is illegal

‘There have to be consequences:’ (Obama appointed) Judge ups sentences for Capitol rioters
U.S. District Judge Tanya Chutkan has imposed sentences ranging from 14 to 45 days on four people who pleaded guilty to unlawful parading and picketing inside the Capitol building on Jan. 6 — a misdemeanor offense… On Wednesday, Chutkan sentenced two cousins who breached the Capitol and took selfies while doing so to 45 days in jail.  Prosecutors had asked Chutkan to sentence each of the defendants — Robert Bauer of Kentucky, and Edward Hemenway of Virginia — to 30 days in prison… http://reut.rs/3p0Vx3m

A Judge Sent a Capitol Rioter to Prison, Rejecting the Government’s Lighter Recommendation
“I flatly disagree,” Chutkan said of comparisons between Jan. 6 and the demonstrations against police violence. Although some protesters did become violent last year, she said, it was a “false equivalency” to compare people protesting for civil rights to a “violent mob” seeking to overthrow the government.  (No one has been charged with insurrection.  The judge is a political hack, sentencing on imaginary crimes!)
https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/zoetillman/judge-capitol-rioter-prison-harsher-sentence

@MrAndyNgo: In a scene reminiscent of Jan. 6, extreme environmentalist protesters push police to try to force their way inside the U.S. Department of the Interior in Washington, D.C. They’re demanding the end of fossil fuels. Officers use a taser to force them back. (No one was charges as of now)
https://twitter.com/MrAndyNgo/status/1448784470371414017

@EpochTimes: Right-wing extremists were responsible for 66% of the 110 Domestic Terrorism plots or attacks in 2020, according to data presented to an Oct. 13 congressional hearing—but the study doesn’t include most of the roughly 450 violent protests from that yearhttps://t.co/E1XgREP482

Why more Black families are choosing to home-school their children this fall
Black children made up just 1 percent of home-schoolers across the country in the late 1990s… 3.3 percent of Black families were home-schooling their children in spring 2020 at the beginning of the pandemic, but the figure jumped to 16.1 percent of Black children in the fall of 2020…
    Ray’s study revealed a significant difference in academic achievement among Black home-school students. In 2015, 140 Black home-schooling families were given standardized tests. The tests were compared to those of more than 1,200 Black public school students, which showed that Black home-schoolers scored higher in reading, language and math. The home-schoolers’ scores were also equal to or higher than white public school students’ scores, on average…
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/nbcblk/black-families-are-choosing-home-school-children-fall-rcna1869 

FRIDAY

A must view….

Fake CV19 Jab Mandate, Fake FDA Approval & Fake Economy

 

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com (WNW 499 10.15.21)

Looks like America is waking up to fake everything.  Let’s start with the fake CV19 jab mandate by the Biden Administration.  Where is the Executive Order (EO)?  Where is the legislation from Congress and signed by VP Biden?  Guess what?  It’s not there.  That’s right.  There is no Biden EO mandating the vax jabs.  There is nothing in the Federal Register, and maybe that’s why Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Green simply states the vax jab mandate “does not exist.”  It’s totally fake and designed to herd people into getting this experimental death shot.

How about the fake FDA approval of Comirnaty?  You cannot get Comirnaty in the USA, and in my opinion, you never will.  Pfizer says it is totally “interchangeable” with the BioNTech CV19 injection.  How can that be when one that is approved is not available (and will not have a liability shield).  The one that is “approved” is only available under an extended “Emergency Use Authorization” (EUA)?  The EUA means the BioNTech CV19 injection is, in fact, experimental, and the FDA specifically says the BioNTech CV19 injection “has not been approved.” (End of page 11 top of page 12)  Because of the EUA, Pfizer has a liability shield against all deaths and injuries.  So, I ask again, how can the Comirnaty and BioNTech CV19 injections be “interchangeable” when one is approved and one is NOT?  They simply are not “interchangeable,” and the entire thing is a massive bait and switch fraud and record Nuremburg code violation.

The fake economy has been propped up so long with massive amounts of printed money inflation is now taking off.  That is not fake.  The fake propped up financial system is plagued with rising inflation, supply chain disruptions and a massive labor shortage, which could all lead to a gigantic collapse of the system and soon.  Oh, and let’s not forget about the totally fake elections the Deep State wants desperately to keep covered up!!

Join Greg Hunter as he talks about these stories and more in the Weekly News Wrap-Up 10.15.21.

(To Donate to USAWatchdog.com Click Here)

 

After the Wrap-Up:

Journalist Alex Newman will come on to talk parental rights, the FBI harassment and many other compelling news topics.

 

Let us close out the week with this offering courtesy of Greg Hunter of  USAWatchdog

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