NOV23/ANOTHER RAID DAY: GOLD DOWN $21.85 TO $1784.25//SILVER DOWN 81 CENTS TO $23.42//COMEX GOLD STANDING RISES TO 6.776 TONNES//SILVER ADVANCES IN COMEX NOVEMBER STANDING TO 8.02 MILLION OZ// RUSSIA ADDS 3 TONNES OF GOLD TO ITS OFFICIAL RESERVES AS IT NOW BEGINS TO ADD TO THOSE RESERVES//ALSO POLAND WISHES TO ADD 100 TONNES TO ITS HOARD//COVID COMMENTARIES//VACCINE MANDATE UPDATES: JOURNAL OF CIRCULATION, THE PREMIER JOURNAL FOR HEART ISSUES BRINGS A DAMNING REPORT ON THE PFIZER JABS STATING THAT THEY CAUSE HUGE HARM AND MUST BE STOPPED IMMEDIATELY//VAERS REPORTS HUGE INJURIES TO CHILDREN AGE 5 TO 11 FROM THE VACCINE// PFIZER VACCINE CAUSES A 5000% INCREASE IN ECOPTIC PREGANCIES (PREGNACIES OUT OF THE UTERUS) //CDC HIGHLIGHT THAT MORE CHILDREN WILL DIE FROM THE VACCINE THAT BE SAVED FROM COVID 19//CANADA WILL FINALLY OPEN ITS PORTS AS THE MAJOR FLOODING ZONES ARE NOW FIXED//TURKISH LIRA PLUMMETS AGAIN//USA ADMITS THAT IT HAS NO DEFENSE TO RUSSIA’S NEW HYPERSONIC WEAPON//THE GLOBE RELEASES 50 MILLION BARRELS OF OIL AND THAT HAS NO EFFECT ON PRICE EXCEPT TO INCREASE THE PRICE//USA INITIATES MORE SANCTIONS ON NORDSTREAM II GAS//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

 

GOLD:$1784.25.10 DOWN $21,85   The quote is London spot price

Silver:$23.42  DOWN  81  CENTS  London spot price ( cash market)

 
 
4:30 closing price
 
Gold $1789.35
 
silver:  $23.47
 
 
 
 

 

 
 

PLATINUM AND PALLADIUM PRICES BY GOLD-EAGLE (MORE ACCURATE)

 

 

PLATINUM  $973.65 DOWN  $40.20

PALLADIUM: $1872.65 DOWN $86.40/OZ 

 

END

Editorial of The New York Sun | February 1, 2021

end

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COMEX DETAILS//NOTICES FILED

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

receiving today  6/13

 

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: NOVEMBER 2021 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,806.000000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 11/22/2021 DELIVERY DATE: 11/24/2021
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 4
661 C JP MORGAN 6
732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 2
737 C ADVANTAGE 13
905 C ADM 1
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 13 13
MONTH TO DATE: 2,090

end

Goldman Sachs stopped: 0

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  NOV. CONTRACT: 13 NOTICE(S) FOR 1300 OZ  (0.0404 tonnes)  

 

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR THIS MONTH:  2090 FOR 209,000 OZ  (6.500 TONNES) 

 

SILVER//NOV CONTRACT

112 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR  520,000   OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month 1564  :  for 7,820,000  oz

 

BITCOIN MORNING QUOTE  $56,256  DOLLARS UP 115 DOLLARS 

 

BITCOIN AFTERNOON QUOTE.:$57,855 DOLLARS  UP 1714.DOLLARS 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

GLD AND SLV INVENTORIES:

GLD AND SLV INVENTORIES:

Gold

WITH GOLD DOWN $21.85AND NO PHYSICAL TO BE FOUND ANYWHERE:

A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: 

STRANGE!! A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 6.11 TONNES INTO THE GLD//

 

WITH RESPECT TO GLD WITHDRAWALS:  (OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS)

 

GOLD IS “RETURNED” TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHEN CALLING IN THEIR LEASES: THE GOLD NEVER LEAVES THE BANK OF ENGLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BANK IS PROTECTING ITSELF IN CASE OF COMMERCIAL FAILURE

ALSO INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (phys) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//

THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD!!

GLD  991 ,11 TONNES OF GOLD//

Silver

AND WITH NO SILVER AROUND  TODAY: WITH SILVER DOWN 81 CENTS

 A HUGE CHANGE  IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.128 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV

WITH REGARD TO SILVER WITHDRAWALS FROM THE SLV:

THE SILVER WITHRAWALS ARE ACTUALLY “RETURNED” TO JPM, AS JPMORGAN CALLS IN ITS LEASES WITH THE SLV FUND.  (THE STORY IS THE SAME AS THE BANK OF ENGLAND’S GOLD). THE SILVER NEVER LEAVES JPMORGAN’S VAULT. THEY ARE CALLING IN THEIR LEASES FOR FEAR OF SOLVENCY ISSUES.

INVENTORY RESTS AT: 

 

547.261  MILLION OZ./SLV

xxxxx

GLD closing price//NYSE 167.29  DOWN 1.45 OR 0.86%

XXXXXXXXXXXXX

SLV closing price NYSE 21.91 DOWN. 0.43 OR  1.95%

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

 
 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 
 
 

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A STRONG 1810 CONTRACTS TO 152,927, AND FURTHER FROM THE NEW RECORD OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020. WITHOUR $0.47 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON MONDAY OUR BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN) )(IT FELL BY $0.47 BUT WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OUT ANY SILVER LONGS AS WE HAD A STRONG GAIN OF 568 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES,.WE  ALSO HAD I) HUGE  BANKER SHORT COVERING AS THEY ARE VERY ANXIOUS TO GET OUT OF DODGE!!/WE ALSO HAD  SOME ii) REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//.   iii)  A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) A  GOOD INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 4.34 MILLION OZ FOLLOWING TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 175,000 OZ   / v), STRONG SIZED COMEX OI LOSS
 
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL:
 
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI SILVER TODAY: CONTRACTS -349
 
 
 
 
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS
 
 
NOV
 
ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF NOV:
 
17,106 CONTACTS  for 17 days, total 17,106 contracts or 85.530million oz…average per day:  100.6 contracts or 5.031 million oz per day.

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER: SO FAR THIS MONTH OF

NOV:  85.530 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON  

 

LAST 6 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: 140.120 MILLION OZ 

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT:  94.595 MILLION OZ

 

 
RESULT:WE HAD A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1810 WITH OUR 47 CENT LOSS SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// MONDAY.
 
THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A  STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 2378 CONTRACTS( 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR NOV AND 2378 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR DECEMBER) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS
 
 
 
 
THE DOMINANT FEATURE TODAY:/ AS WELL AS TODAY /HUGE BANKER SHORTCOVERING AS THEY GET OUT OF DODGE//// WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR NOV OF 4.2 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAYS QUEUE JUMP OF 175,000 OZ . WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 568 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES. NOBODY LEFT THE SILVER ARENA.
 
 
 
 
 

WE HAD 112 NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR 520,000 OZ

GOLD

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A HUMONGOUS SIZED 34,268  CONTRACTS TO 577,014 ,,AND CLOSER TO  OUR NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110. 

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: — 693  CONTRACTS.

THE STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI CAME WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $54.10//COMEX GOLD TRADING//MONDAY.AS IN SILVER WE MUST HAVE HAD HUGE BANKER/ALGO SHORT COVERING ACCOMPANYING OUR FAIR SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. WE HAD HUGE LONG LIQUIDATION  AS THE TOTAL LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES TOTALED A POWERFUL SIZED 27,977 CONTRACTS…..  WE ALSO HAD A GOOD INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR OCT AT 1.444 TONNES, FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP  OF 1300 OZ//NEW STANDING 217,900 OZ (6.776 TONNES) 
 
 
 
 
 

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $54.10 WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S TRADING

 

WE HAD A VOLUME OF 0    4 -GC CONTRACTS//OPEN INTEREST  0//

WE HAD  AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED LOSS OF 27,977  OI CONTRACTS (87.00 TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

 

E.F.P. ISSUANCETHE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A SMALL SIZED 6297CONTRACTS:

FOR DEC 6297  ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO//TOTAL: 6297 The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 577,014. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EXCHANGE DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A HUGE  SIZED DECREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 27,977 CONTRACTS: 34,268 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 6297 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 27,977 CONTRACTS OR 87.000 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A STRONG SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (6297) ACCOMPANYING THE GIGANTIC SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI (34,268 OI): TOTAL LOSS IN THE TWO EXCHANGES: 27,977 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING ,2.) GOOD INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR NOV. AT 2.395 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 1300 OZ  3)HUGE LONG LIQUIDATION,4) GIGANTIC SIZED COMEX OI LOSS 5). STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL 

SPREADING OPERATIONS(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD)

FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS:

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF NOV.

WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

 

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV, FOR GOLD:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (DEC), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

 
 
 
 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2021 INCLUDING TODAY

NOV

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF NOV : 80,380, CONTRACTS OR 8,038,000 oz OR 250.01 TONNES (17 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 4728 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 17 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 250.01 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2020, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  250.01/3550 x 100% TONNES  7.04% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO DATE
 
JANUARY: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)
 
FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..
 
MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN///IT SURPASSED JANUARY!!)

 

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT:           141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV:           250.01 TONNES INITIAL ISSUANCE (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//CLOSING IN ON MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 1810 CONTRACTS TO 153,276AND  CLOSER TO OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  4 1/2 YEARS AGO.  

EFP ISSUANCE 2378 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

DEC 805  ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  2378 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI LOSS OF 1810 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 2378 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,WE OBTAIN A  STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 568 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

 

THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 2.840 MILLION  OZ, OCCURRED WITH OUR  $0.47 LOSS IN PRICE. 

 

 

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL..THE EVIDENCE IS CLEAR: HUGE AMOUNTS OF PHYSICAL STANDING FOR BOTH  SILVER AND GOLD .

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Gold

(Peter Schiff, Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,

 
 
 

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i) TUESDAY MORNING/MONDAY  NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 7.01 PTS OR  0.20%     //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 299.76 PTS OR 1.20% /The Nikkei closed     //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.69%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  6.3903   /Oil DOWN TO 75.89 dollars per barrel for WTI and DOWN TO 78.67 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED  ALL RED  /ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED  DOWN AT 6.3903 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.3932/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%/

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

NORTH KOREA//USA/OUTLINE

END

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3 C CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

OUTLINE
 

COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A HUMONGOUS SIZED 34,268 CONTRACTS TO 577,707 MOVING FURTHER FROM THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020).  AND THIS  COMEX DECREASE OCCURRED WITH OUR LOSS OF $54.10 IN GOLD PRICING  MONDAY’S COMEX TRADING.WE ALSO HAD A STRONG EFP ISSUANCE (6297 CONTRACTS). …AS THEY WERE PAID HANDSOMELY  NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AND SETTLE FOR CASH. LOOKS LIKE OUR BANKERS ARE FINALLY BAILING OUT!!

 

WE NORMALLY HAVE WITNESSED  EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS. IT SEEMS THAT ARE BANKERS FRIENDS ARE EXERCISING EFP’S FROM LONDON AND NOW THEY ARE LOATHE TO ISSUE NEW ONES.  

 

(SEE BELOW)

WE  HAD 0    4 -GC VOLUME//open interest REMAINS AT   0

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW MOVING TO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 6297 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  ;: ,  NOV  :  & DEC. 6297 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:   6297 CONTRACTS 

 

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION,  EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED 27,977  TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 6297 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE LOST AN UNBELIEVABLY SIZED COMEX OI OF 34,268 CONTRACTS..WE HAVE A GOOD AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR NOV   (6.776),

 HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 9 MONTHS OF 2021:

OCT.    57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB. 113.424 TONNES

JAN: 6.500 TONNES.

 

TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR (JAN- S0CT): 480.912 TONNNES

 

THE BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT FELL $54.10)

AND THEY WERE SUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING HUGE NUMBERS OF LONGS AS THE TOTAL LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES REGISTERED A GIGANTIC 87.00 TONNES,ACCOMPANYING OUR GOOD GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR NOV (6.776 TONNES)…  I  STRONGLY BELIEVE THAT OUR BANKER FRIENDS ARE GETTING QUITE NERVOUS.   THEY ARE LOOKING OVER THEIR SHOULDERS AND WITNESSING MASSIVE SILVER/GOLD SHORTAGES THAT CANNOT BE COVERED. THEY ARE TRYING TO FLEE IN HASTE “FROM DODGE”.

WE HAD -693   CONTRACTS FROM COMEX TRADES. THESE WERE REMOVED AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT

NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES :: 27,977 CONTRACTS OR 2,797,700 OZ OR  87.00 TONNES

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT COMMODITY FUTURES OPEN INTEREST SHOULD APPROXIMATE 3% OF TOTAL PRODUCTION.  IN GOLD THE WORLD PRODUCES AROUND 3500 TONNES PER YEAR BUT ONLY 2200 TONNES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE WEST (THUS EXCLUDING RUSSIA, CHINA ETC..WHO KEEP 100% OF THEIR PRODUCT.
 
THUS IN GOLD WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:  577,019 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS X 100 OZ PER CONTRACT = 57.70 MILLION OZ/32,150 OZ PER TONNE =  17.95 TONNES

THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST REPRESENTS 17.95/2200 OR 81,57% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF GOLD.

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX GOLD TODAY 431,476 contracts//    / volume//volume strong//raid/

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY: 510,668 contracts//huge/raid

 

// //most of our traders have left for London

 

NOV 23

 

/2021

 
INITIAL STANDINGS FOR NOV COMEX GOLD
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
64.30
OZ
Brinks
2 kilobars
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz
nil
OZ
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz
 
 
 
 
nil
 
oz
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
No of oz served (contracts) today
13  notice(s)
1300 OZ
0.0404 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)
89 contracts 8900 oz
.2768 TONNES
 
 
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
2090 notices
 
209,000 OZ
6.500 TONNES
 
 
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz
 
 
 
We had 0 deposit into the dealer
 
 
total deposit: nil   oz 
 

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had  0 deposit into the customer account
 
 
TOTAL CUSTOMER DEPOSITS NIL oz
 
 
 
We have 1  customer withdrawals
Out of Brinks/customer:  64.3 oz 2 kilobars
 
TOTAL CUSTOMER WITHDRAWALS 64.3 oz
 
 
 
 
 

We had 1  kilobar transactions 1 out of  1 transactions)

ADJUSTMENTS  0

 
 
For the front month of November we had an open interest of 102 contracts having LOST 807 contracts on the day.
 
We had  820 notices served on MONDAY so we GAINED 13 contracts or an additional 1300 oz will  stand for delivery for this very non active delivery month
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
.
DEC LOST 69,096 CONTRACTS  TO STAND AT 144,794/  WE HAVE 4 MORE READING DAYS BEFORE FDN.
JANUARY GAINED 30 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 694
 

We had 13 notice(s) filed today for  1300  oz

FOR THE NOV 2021 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 820 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 13  contract(s) of which 0  notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 6 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0  notices received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the NOV /2021. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (2090) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  (NOV: 102 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today  13 x 100 oz per contract equals 217,900 OZ OR 6.776 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this active month of NOV.  

 

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the NOV contract month:

No of notices filed so far (2090) x 100 oz (102)  OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (13} x 100 oz} which equals 217,900 ostanding OR 6.777 TONNES in this  active delivery month of NOV.

We GAINED 13 contracts or an additional 1300 oz will stand for delivery. 

 

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING:  6.776 TONNES

 
 

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

260,725.414, oz NOW PLEDGED  march 5/2021/HSBC  8.10 TONNES

176,742.600 PLEDGED  MANFRA 5.497 TONNES

288,481,604, oz  JPM  8.97 TONNES

1,149,435.368 oz pledged June 12/2020 Brinks/35.75 TONNES

23,862.404 oz International Delaware:  0.7422 tonnes

LOOMIS:  18,615.429   0.57900

total pledged gold:  1,917,862.8211oz                                     59.65 tonnes

 

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES…. WE HAVE 490.58 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS 6.677 tonnes

CALCULATION OF REGISTERED THAT CAN BE SETTLED UPON:

 

total registered or dealer  17,676,354.180 oz or 549.80 tonnes
 
 
 
total weight of pledged:1,917,862.791oz                                     59.65 tonnes
 
 
 
 
 
registered gold that can be used to settle upon: 15,758,522.0 (490.15 tonnes) 
 
 
 
 
true registered gold  (total registered – pledged tonnes 15,758,522.0 (490.58 tonnes)   
 
 
total eligible gold: 15,775,455.904 oz   (490.67 tonnes)
 
 
 
total registered, pledged  and eligible (customer) gold  33,431,410.084 oz or 1,039.85
tonnes
 (INCLUDES 4 GC GOLD)
 
 

total 4 GC gold:   126.34 tonnes

total gold net of 4 GC:  913.51 tonnes

end

 
 

I have compiled  data with respect to registered (or dealer) gold taken on first day notice for each of the past 24 months

The data begins on first day notice for the May month taken on the last day of July 2018. and it continues to present day.

I then took, how many deliveries were recorded by the CME for each and every month.  I also included for reference the price of gold on first day notice.

The first graph is a logarithmic  graph and the second graph, linear.

You can see the huge explosion of registered gold at the comex along with deliveries.

 
 
THE DATA AND GRAPHS:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
END

NOV 23/2021

And now for the wild silver comex results

INITIAL STANDING FOR SILVER//NOV

Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
838,568.890  oz
 
 
JPM
CNT
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil
OZ
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
28,544.860 oz
 
Brinks
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
No of oz served today (contracts)
112
 
CONTRACT(S)
520,000  OZ)
 
No of oz to be served (notices)
41 contracts
 (205,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  1564 contracts

 

7,820,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
 
We had 0 deposit into the dealer
 

total dealer deposits:  nil        oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had 1 deposits into customer account (ELIGIBLE ACCOUNT)

i) Into Brinks: 28,544.860 oz

 
 

JPMorgan now has 179.43 million oz  silver inventory or 50.93% of all official comex silver. (179.43 million/352.265 million

total customer deposits today 28,544.86- oz

we had 2 withdrawals

i) Out of JPM: 178,274.200 oz

ii) out of CNT: 600,289.690 oz

 

 

 

total withdrawal 838,568.890       oz

 

adjustments:   1
Brinks: dealer to customer:  129,139.08 oz
 
 
 
 
 

Total dealer(registered) silver: 97.855 million oz

total registered and eligible silver:  353.265 million oz

a net  0.810 million oz  leaves  the comex silver vaults.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

For the front month of November we have an  amount of silver standing equal to 153 contracts a LOSS of 194 contracts on the day. We had 229 notices filed on MONDAY so we gained A HUGE 35 contracts or an additional 175,000 oz will stand in this non active delivery month of November.
 

DEC LOST 6450   CONTRACTS DOWN TO 37,133

JANUARY GAINED 90 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 1733

 
NO. OF NOTICES FILED: 112  FOR 560,000   OZ.

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in NOV. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at  1564 x 5,000 oz =7,820,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of NOV (153) and the number of notices served upon today 112 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the  standings for silver for the NOV./2021 contract month: 1564 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of NOV(153)  – number of notices served upon today (112) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the NOV contract month .equals 8,025,000 oz. .

We gained 35 contracts or an additional 175,000 oz will stand for silver in this non active delivery month of November.

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME  121,620 CONTRACTS // volume  huge/raid/criminal 

 

FOR YESTERDAY 103,581 contracts  ,CONFIRMED VOLUME/ very strong/raid

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV  RISES TO -3.06% (NOV23/2021)

SILVER FUND POSITIVE TO NAV

No of oz of physical silver held:  Oct 1/2021   151,927,020 ( a gain of 1.001 MILLION OZ IN TWO MONTHS

no of oz of physical silver held  JULY 8.2021;  150,926,000  (GAIN OF 6.411 MILLION OZ IN 2 MONTHS)

No of oz of physical silver held; MAY 24/2021  144,515,694 OZ

No. of oz of physical silver held:  Sept 20/20: 85,907.3616  Oz

No of oz pf physical silver held: Dec 21/2019:  65,073.570 Oz

During the past 12 months Sprott has added: 66.02 MILLION OZ OCT 4-SEPT 20)

 

2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV FALLS TO -1.65% nav   (NOV 23)/2021 )

 

3. SPROTT CEF .A   FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA)

NAV $17.91 TRADING 17.20//NEGATIVE  3.95

 

END

 

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/(this vehicle is a fraud as there is no gold behind them

NOV 23/WITH GOLD DOWN $21.85 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 6.11 TONNES INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 991.11 TONNES.

NOV 22/WITH GOLD DOWN 54.10 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 985.00 TONNES

NOV 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 8.13 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 985.00 TONNES.

NOV 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.40 TODAY:A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .88 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 976.87 TONNES

NOV 17/WITH GOLD UP $14.10 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 975.99 TONNES

NOV 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.30 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 975.99 TONNES

NOV 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.55 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORTY AT 975.99 TONNES//

NOV 12/WITH GOLD UP $4.65 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY AT 975.99 TONNES

NOV 11/WITH GOLD UP  $14.45 TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .58 TONES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 975.99 TONNES

NOV 10/WITH GOLD UP $18.00 TODAY NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 975.41 TONNES

NOV 9/WITH GOLD UP $1.85 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 975.41 TONNES

NOV 8/WITH GOLD UP $11.75 TODAY;NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 975.41 TONNES

NOVEMBER 5/WITH GOLD UP $22.30 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.66 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 975.41 TONNES

NOV 4/WITH GOLD UP $29.05 TODAY;//A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 978.07 TONNES

NOV 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $ 24.10 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY REST AT 979.52 TONNES

NOV 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 979.52 TONNES

NOV 1/WITH GOLD UP $11.85 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.62 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD./INVENTORY REST AT 979.52. TONNES

OCT 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $18.30 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 982.14 TONNES

OCT 28/WITH GOLD UP $3.10 TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .87 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 982.14 TONNES

OCT 27/WITH GOLD UP $7.55 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.20 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY REST AT 983.01 TONNES.

OCT 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.00 TODAY: A  HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.74 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 979.81 TONNES

OCT 25/WITH GOLD UP $10.90 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 978.07 TONNES

OCT 22/WITH GOLD UP $13.45 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 978.07 TONNES

OCT 21/ WITH GOLD DOWN $3.20 TODAY NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 980.10 TONNES

OCT 20/WITH GOLD UP $14.95 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 980.10 TONNES

OCT 19//WITH GOLD UP $4.95 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 980.10 TONNES

OCT 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.65 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 980.10 TONNES

OCT 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $28.85 TODAY; A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.62 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 982.72 TONNES.

OCT 14/WITH GOLD UP $3.10 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 982.72 TONNES

 

OCT 13/WITH GOLD UP $35.35 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.82 TONNES FROM LAST FRIDAY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 982.72 TONNES

OCT 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.90 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 986.54 TONNES

OCT 6/WITH GOLD UP $.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 986.54 TONNES

OCT 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.30 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 986.54 TONNES

OCT 4/WITH GOLD UP $5.90 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.49 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 986.54 TONNES

OCT 1/WITH GOLD UP $3.70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 990.03 TONNES

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Inventory rests tonight at:

 

NOV 23 / GLD INVENTORY 991.11 tonnes

 

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them!)

NOV 23.WITH SILVER DOWN 81 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.128 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 547.261 MILLION OZ//

NOV 22/ WITH SILVER DOWN 47 CENTS TODAY; A BIG  CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A SURPRISE DEPOSIT OF 1.156 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 549.389 MILLION OZ/

NOV 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 548.233 MILLION OZ..

NOV 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 27 CENTS TODAY/ NO CHANGES IN SILVER STANDING AT THE SLV.//INVENTORY REST AT 548.233 MILLION OZ//

NOV 17/WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY: NO  CHANGES IN SILVER STANDING AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 548.233 MILLION OZ//

NOV 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER STANDING AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 548.233 MILLION OZ//

NOV 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV/ INVENTORY RESTS AT 548.233 MILLION OZ

NOV 12/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 3.933 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 548.233 MILLION OZ//

NOV 11/WITH SILVER UP 51 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.300 MILLION OZ//

NOV 10 WITH SILVER UP 45 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.300 MILLION OZ//

NOV 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.300 MILLION OZ.

NOV 8/WITH SILVER UP 38 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.300 MILLION OZ//

NOVEMBER 5/WITH SILVER UP 26 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL  CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 507,000 OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.300 MILLION OZ//

NOV 4/WITH SILVER UP 52 CENTS TODAY/ A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.312 MILLION OZ INTO THE SL. //INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.807 MILLION OZ//

NOV 3/WITH SILVER DOWN 29 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: AWITHDRAWAL OF 2.777 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 542.495 MILLION OZ//

NOV 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 53 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 226,000 OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 545.272 MILLION OZ//

NOV 1/WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.249 MILLION OZ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 545.498 MILLION OZ//

OCT 29/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.17 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 546.847 MILLION OZ/

OCT 28 WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.2277 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 546.747 MILLION OZ/

OCT 27/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.520 MILLION OZ//

OCT 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 47 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY REST AT 544,520 MILLION OZ.

OCT 25/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.036 MILLLION OZ//INVENTORY  RESTS AT 546.562 MILLION OZ//

OCT 22/WITH SILVER UP 26 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 546.562 MILLION OZ//

OCT 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.055 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 546.562 MILLION OZ

OCT 20/WITH SILVER UP 54 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.166 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 549.617 MILLION OZ//

OCT 19/WITH SILVER UP 52 CENTS TODAY; A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 232,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 553.783 MILLION OZ

OCT 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 553.551 MILLION OZ/

OCT 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 553.551 MILLION OZ/

OCT 14/WITH SILVER UP 32 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 7.406 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 553.551 MILLION OZ//

OCT 13/WITH SILVER UP 64 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A LOSS OF 3.796 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV SINCE FRIDAY NIGHT///INVENTORY RESTS AT 546.145 MILLION OZ/

OCT 7/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 549.941 MILLION OZ/

OCT 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 549.941 MILLION OZ 

OCT 5/ WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE  IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 503,000 OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 549.941 MILLION OZ

OCT 4/WITH  SILVER UP 1 CENT TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 8.425 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 549.438 MILLION OZ/

OCT 1/WITH  SILVER UP 52 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 541.013 MILLION OZ//

 
 
 

NOV 23/2021  SLV INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 547.261 MILLION OZ

 

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

PETER SCHIFF

Peter Schiff On Jerome Powell 2.0

 
TUESDAY, NOV 23, 2021 – 11:07 AM

Authored by Michael Maharrey via SchiffGold.com,

President Joe Biden has tapped Jerome Powell to serve a second term as chairman of the Federal Reserve.

Biden said Powell’s “steady leadership” helped calm markets as governments shut down the economy due to coronavirus, and he expressed confidence in Powell’s future leadership. “I believe Jay is the right person to see us through,” Biden said.

Over the last several days, there was speculation that Lael Brainard might get the nod. She is perceived as even more dovish than Powell, and she’s a Democrat. She will serve as vice-chair.

Both Powell and Brainard must be confirmed by the Senate.

Democrats were pushing hard for Brainard. Biden defended his decision saying Powell’s “independence” is a plus adding that he felt there was a need for stability at the Fed.

At this moment of both enormous potential and enormous uncertainty for our economy, we need stability and independence at the Federal Reserve.”

In a tweet, Peter Schiff questioned Biden’s desire for “independence” at the Fed.

If Powell actually exercises the political independence POTUS just praised, raises interest rates and stops monetizing exploding federal deficits to fight inflation, despite recession and rising unemployment, I wonder how long it will take before Biden threatens to fire him?”

Gold sold off sharply on the announcement and the dollar rallied. This was due to expectations that a second Powell term will mean tighter monetary policy to fight inflation.

But Powell’s nomination is really nothing more than a continuation of the status quo.

And what is the status quo?

Loose monetary policy, quantitative easing, zero percent interest rates, and money printing. Brainard might have directed a looser monetary policy, but that doesn’t make Powell a hawk.

Schiff tweeted that the good news is Powell was renominated. And the bad news is Powell was renominated.

Yes staying with Powell represents stability and maintains continuity. But continuing a failed policy is nothing to celebrate. What’s needed is radical change. Maybe we get it after the next crisis.”

Oddly, the mainstream narrative flipped 180 degrees with the announcement of Powell’s second term. All of a sudden, sticking with the status quo will yield a different result. After the sizzling CPI data came out earlier this month, traders bought gold. They recognized that Powell was powerless to fight the inflation dragon. Now, all of a sudden, Powell’s reappointment means a war on inflation? A war he will win? It doesn’t make sense.

The fact is, reappointing Powell doesn’t change the economic dynamics. The Fed remains caught between a rock and a hard place. It clearly has an inflation problem. Despite the announcement of a QE taper, the central bank still hasn’t done anything significant to address rising prices. As Schiff put it after the Fed announced the taper, they’re still spiking the punch bowl.

They’re still pouring alcohol into that bowl. The Fed is just saying they’re going to reduce the amount of alcohol they pour into the bowl on a monthly basis. But they’re not going to stop pouring it in. That’s why I’ve said repeatedly that tapering is not really tightening. They’re still easing. They are still printing money, monetizing government debt. They’re just saying they’re going to monetize a little less government debt in the coming months then they have been monetizing in the prior months.”

That’s because any real effort to fight inflation will pop the bubble economy. The entire “recovery” is predicated on low interest rates and quantitative easing. Schiff said he found it amazing that people think the Fed can legitimately fight inflation simply by tapering its current asset purchase program.

It’s also crazy that they think small rate hikes in mid-2022 will make a difference given how fast the CPI is rising now and how much faster it will be rising then.”

Brainard said she was looking forward to working with Powell to “build a durable US recovery.” Schiff said she unwittingly swerved into the problem.

The Fed can’t build anything other than asset bubbles and big government. Biden’s nominees assure a continuity of failure and inflation!”

end

LAWRIE WILLIAM//,//Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,James Rickards

After a long hiatus, this is good!!  Russia starts to add to its reserves!

(Lawrie Williams)

LAWRIE WILLIAMS: Russia adds another 3 tonnes of gold to its reserves

It is so far difficult to tell if Russia is again starting to build up its gold reserves, but in relatively tiny amounts, or if its latest 3.1 tonne gold reserve increase in October is just an accounting adjustment. However, it appears that October was the third month out of the past four that a similar amount of gold has been added to the nation’s reserve total. According to the Russian central bank’s own figures, the nation’s gold reserve now stands at 2,302 tonnes – a few tonnes higher than the 2,295.4 tonnes it has been reporting to the IMF, but not a sufficiently large increase so as to move it up from fifth place among national holders of gold, and too little to yet suggest any overall definitive change in policy.

Readers will recall that the Russian central bank announced a year and a half ago that it would cease adding to its gold reserves after April 2020, and by and large it has been sticking to this up until the small 3.1 tonne increases recorded in the months of July, September and October. These have followed on from similarly sized reductions in two early months in the year.

As we reported a month ago, the rationale behind Russia ceasing to add to its gold reserves had been taken, apparently, to alleviate the financial impact of the big drop in oil and gas prices – previously by far Russia’s largest export earner – and thus on the country’s foreign trade balance. Russia was therefore able to replace the falling oil and gas export income by persuading its gold miners to sell their product on the international market instead of to local banks. From these the domestically- mined gold had mostly found its way to the central bank via the commercial banks. That had led to a number of months in which gold had become the country’s largest export earner replacing oil and gas as such.

Over the past few months, though, oil and gas prices have made an enormous price recovery to about double the level (oil) and multiples of prior levels (gas) of early 2020. There has thus been speculation that the central bank could now be in a position to resume its gold purchases which at one time had been running at around 200 tonnes a year. The recent small reserve increases have so far been too low to confirm any official trend reversal.

Russia, under the pragmatic guidance of Vladimir Putin, has been conducting one of the most effective international economic policies of any major nation, perhaps unhindered by Western capitalist system political constraints. It thus probably finds itself in one of the strongest economic positions of any nation with its current stranglehold on natural gas supplies to Europe. It probably has the world’s biggest natural resource base, and has played to its economic strengths in a way that seems to have completely seen off any adverse effects of U.S.-imposed sanctions which seem to have totally failed to bring it to its economic knees.

Russia is either the world’s second or third largest gold producer, after China, depending on whose data is the most accurate, with annual output estimated at around 330 tonnes. This gives it ample scope to build its gold reserves from domestic sources alone if it should wish to do so. It has used gold and other major currencies like the euro and the yuan as a means of totally reducing any reliance it may have had on U.S. dollar-related securities, which it has relegated to only a tiny part of its total forex holdings, in order to allay any vulnerability to possible adverse U.S. economic action.

Russia, and reportedly China, had – until they both ceased officially adding to their gold reserves in 2020 and 2019 respectively – been the two largest consistent central bank accumulators of gold for their reserve holdings. Without their additions, therefore, overall central bank gold buying had dipped. Ongoing regular purchases from India, Kazakhstan and Turkey, plus occasional big one-off accumulations from countries like Poland, Thailand, Brazil and Hungary, though, have kept central bank gold reserve increases well into positive territory, although still reportedly below the levels of some prior years.

Should Russia be on the way to resuming its 200 tonne a year gold reserve increases, this would likely give a strong boost to the gold price path. As pointed out above, it is still too early to tell if this is in consideration. Keep an eye on this space for the most up- to-date information on this potentially key element in gold supply/demand fundamentals!

23 Nov 2021

end

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

There goes mining in Peru

(London’s Financial Times/GATA)

Hochschild shares drop by a third as Peru seeks to shut mines

 

 

 Section: Daily Dispatches

 

Neil Hume and Gideon Long
Financial Times, London
Monday, November 22, 2021

The market value of Hochschild Mining dropped by almost a third today after Peru moved to close two of its mines on environmental grounds, deepening a clash between the mining industry and the left-leaning government.

Shares in the FTSE 250 company were 32% down in lunchtime trading, having initially dropped by more than half, following Peruvian prime minister Mirtha Vasquez’s weekend announcement that four mines in the southern Ayacucho region, two of which are owned by Hochschild, would be “closed as soon as possible.”

Hochschild said it would “vigorously defend its position” and that its mines operated under the “highest environmental standards.”

The intervention by the government of President Pedro Castillo will send a chill through the mining sector. The South American country is the world’s second-biggest producer of copper and a significant source of gold, silver, zinc, and tin. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.ft.com/content/74521753-c47a-4f1d-900f-8272f10e9305

 

end

Bill Murphy…of GATA

Physical demand will defeat paper gold and silver, GATA chairman says

 

 

 Section: Daily Dispatches

 

10p ET Monday, November 22, 2021

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Amid explosive inflation in most assets, gold and silver are down for the year, GATA Chairman Bill Murphy notes in an interview today with GoldSeek Radio’s Chris Waltzek. But, Murphy adds, eventually demand for real metal will overwhelm the derivatives being used to suppress metals prices.

The interview is 6 minutes long and can be found at GoldSeek here:

https://goldseek.com/article/goldseek-radio-nugget-bill-murphy-physical-demand-will-inevitably-overwhelm-paper-shorting

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treaurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

OTHER IMPORTANT GOLD///ECONOMIC COMMENTARIES

These guys have got it right:  Poland plans to add another 100 tonnes of gold to its reserves…..if they get it.

(zerohedge)

Poland Plans To Add Another 100 Tons Of Gold To Its Reserves

 
TUESDAY, NOV 23, 2021 – 04:15 AM

During a recent interviewBank of Poland President Adam Glapiński said the central bank plans to add 100 tons of gold to its reserves in 2022.

As SchiffGold.com details belowthe National Bank of Poland began aggressively adding gold to its reserves in 2018. Through the first half of 2019, the Polish central bank added more than 100 tons of gold, nearly doubling its reserves.

The Bank of Poland currently holds around 230 tons of gold. The country’s gold holding rank as the 23rd largest in the world. Gold makes up about 6.5% of the Bank of Poland’s total assets. That is similar to the percentage of gold held by the US and Germany.

Why does the Bank of Poland hold gold?

In a nutshell, Glapiński said it is a matter of financial security and stability.

Gold will retain its value even when someone cuts off the power to the global financial system, destroying traditional assets based on electronic accounting records. Of course, we do not assume that this will happen. But as the saying goes – forewarned is always insured. And the central bank is required to be prepared for even the most unfavorable circumstances. That is why we see a special place for gold in our foreign exchange management process.”

He went on to discuss some of the benefits of gold as a monetary asset.

After all, gold is free from credit risk and cannot be devalued by any country’s economic policy. Besides, it is extremely durable, virtually indestructible.”

A World Gold Council survey found that there is deteriorating faith in the US dollar and a continuing trend toward de-dollarization.

Respondents continue to foresee long-term structural changes in the international monetary system, continuing a trend indicated in last year’s survey. Views toward the US dollar trended downward, with half of respondents saying the greenback will fall below its current proportion. Central banks continue to think that the Chinese renminbi’s proportion will increase, with 88% saying that it will grow beyond current levels.”

Glapiński hinted this was one of the reasons Poland continues to add gold to its reserves.

Gold is characterized by a relatively low correlation with the main asset classes – especially the US dollar dominating the NBP reserve portfolio – which means that including gold in the reserves reduces the financial risk in the process of investing them.”

Glapiński said the scale and pace of future gold purchases “will depend, inter alia, on the dynamics of changes in official reserve assets and current market conditions.”

Net gold buying by central banks globally reached 393 tons at the end of Q3. Central banks have already bought more gold this year than they did in the entirety of 2020 (255 tons) with one quarter left to go. The World Gold Council says net gold purchases are “poised to reach a significant total in 2021.

end

OTHER COMMODITIES/URANIUM

Uranium “Cornering” Accelerates: Sprott Massively Upsizes Physical Buying Program To $3.5 Billion Amid Relentless Demand

 
TUESDAY, NOV 23, 2021 – 02:51 PM

While most markets – and certainly tech stocks – are having another miserable day, the same can not be said for uranium stocks which have rebounded strongly after recent losses.

The driver behind today’s surge is the second consecutive upsizing of the Sprott Physical Uranium Trust, which as discussed here two months ago, had sharply repriced the entire uranium sector, and which after amending its at-the-market program so it can raise up to $1.3 billion (from just $300 million previously), has again upsized it, this time to $3.5 billion in what appears to be ravenous demand for physical uranium – according to the prospectus, SPUT now holds approximately 40 million pounds of physical uranium – in a move that increasingly appears like an attempt to corner the market. 

As explained here, the striking recent increase in uranium prices started after the Sprott Physical Uranium Trust began buying uranium in the spot market when it launched its previous at-the-market equity program to raise $300 million on Aug 17.

Barely three weeks later, the Trust had already issued 24.7 million units for gross proceeds of approximately US$244.7 million. With demand rising, and supply about to run out, and also seeing the profound impact this modest ATM buying has had on the sector, Sprott decided to upsize the buying program dramatically and in September upsized the trust so it can issue up to $1.3 billion of units of the Trust in Canada, more than 4x more than the original proposed amount. As we said tat the time“once there is sufficient investor demand to fill the $1.3 billion offering, we expect another upsizing, and then another.”

That’s exactly what happened, because fast forwarding to today we read that the Trust has “filed and obtained a receipt from securities regulatory authorities” for an amended and restated shelf prospectus allowing the Trust “to issue up to US$3.5 billion of units of the Trust (“Units”) in Canada during the 25-month period that commenced on August 10, 2021.”

The Trust has also updated its at-the-market equity program (the “ATM Program”) to issue up to an additional US$1.20 billion of Units pursuant to a prospectus supplement dated November 22, 2021 (the “Prospectus Supplement”, and together with the Second Amended and Restated Shelf Prospectus, the “Offering Documents”) to the Second Amended and Restated Shelf Prospectus. Copies of the Offering Documents are available at www.sedar.com. Distributions will no longer be made under previous ATM Program prospectus supplements, including the prospectus supplement dated September 13, 2021.

“We continue to experience strong investor demand for units of the Sprott Physical Uranium Trust on growing recognition that nuclear power generates reliable baseload energy while helping to meet de-carbonization goals,” said John Ciampaglia, CEO of Sprott Asset Management.

“Since launching the At-the Market offering, SPUT has issued 87 million Units for gross proceeds of approximately US$987 million, which has resulted in the purchase of 21.5 million pounds of U3O8. SPUT now holds approximately 40 million pounds of physical uranium on behalf of our clients.”

Translation: similar to the Hunts cornering silver in 1980 but only using their own, in-house capital, Sprott is doing the same in uranium right now, only instead of using the firm’s limited funds, Sprott has opened up the cornering attempt to anyone and everyone who wishes to participate in this perfectly legal scheme, thus effectively giving the fund unlimited buying power if enough people decide to participate.

Finally, for those who missed the original uranium thesis, here are the highlights (full discussion here).

Sprott Physical Uranium Trust commonly known as SPUT (SRUUF– Canada), is the entity that has upended the uranium market. Since launching its ATM 13 days ago, it has acquired 2.7 million pounds of uranium. This is an average daily rate in excess of 200,000 pounds or roughly a third of global production on an annual basis. If GBTC is the roadmap to follow, as the price of uranium begins to appreciate, the inflows into the trust should accelerate. Interestingly, there are plenty of other entities also purchasing physical uranium, uranium that utilities were counting on for their future needs. The squeeze is on.

As expected, the utilities are blissfully unaware. Surprised?? I’m not. Utilities are quasi-governmental agencies, managed by the types of fukwits who’d work at your local DMV, except they enjoy stock options. The fact that they’ve ignored the coming squeeze shouldn’t be surprising. Inevitably, they’ll demand rate increases to buy back this uranium–it’s not their money anyway. This is your bid at some point in the future.

Commodities are determined by supply and demand. Uranium is a small market at roughly $6.3 billion in annual consumption (180 million pounds at $35/lb). SPUT has raised approximately $85 million in the 13 days since the ATM went live. It’s hoovering up supply and is already struggling to procure pounds, as shown by their increasing cash balance—cash that they’re legally forced to spend. Something is going to give here, and I suspect it’s the price of uranium.

Since then, the price of uranium has indeed given, and the sector continues to surge higher in what may be one of the best risk-return trades available today.

 

END

 

 
CRYPTOCURRENCIES/

END

Your early TUESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results, important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs usa dollar/CLOSED DOWN 6.3903  

 

//OFFSHORE YUAN 6.3932  /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 7.01 PTS OR  0.20% 

 

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 299.76 PTS OR 1.20% 

 

2. Nikkei closed 

 

3. Europe stocks  ALL RED

 

USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO  96.53/Euro FALLS TO 1.1244-

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +.074/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 115.01/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//

 

3c Nikkei now JUST ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 75.59 and Brent: 79.85

3f Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE CLOSED  UP//  OFF- SHORE  UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO -.0.231%/Italian 10 Yr bond yield RISES to 1.03% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD RISES TO 0.49%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.26: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO : 1.26

3k Gold at $1793.30 silver at: 23.75   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 1/100 in roubles/dollar) 74.97

3m oil into the 75 dollar handle for WTI and  79 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 115.01 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9331 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 1.0492 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to 0.231%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 1.653% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 1.999%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 13.16..  EXTREMELY DEADLY

Futures Under Water As Tech Selloff Spreads, Yields Spike, Lira Implodes

 
TUESDAY, NOV 23, 2021 – 08:31 AM

US equity futures continued their selloff for the second day as Treasury yields spiked to 1.66%, up almost 4bps on the day, and as the selloff in tech shares spread as traders trimmed bets for a dovish-for-longer Federal Reserve after the renomination of Jerome Powell as its chair. At 8:00am ET, S&P futures were down 2.75 points or -0.05%, with Dow futures flat and Nasdaq futures extended their selloff but were off worst levels, down 41.25 points or 0.25%, after Monday’s last-hour furious rout in technology stocks.

As repeatedly covered here in recent weeks, the Turkish currency crisis deepened with the lira weakening past 13 per USD, a drop of more than 10% in one day. 

Oil rebounded – as expected – after a panicking Joe Biden, terrified about what soaring gas prices mean for Dems midterm changes, announced that the US, together with several other countries such as China, India and Japan, would tap up to 50 million barrels in strategic reserves, a move which was fully priced in and will now serve to bottom tick the price of oil.

In premarket trading, Zoom lost 9% in premarket trading on slowing growth.

For some unknown reason, investors have been reducing expectations for a deeper dovish stance by the Fed after Powell was selected for a second term (as if Powell – the man who started purchases of corporate bonds – is somehow hawkish). The chair himself sought to strike a balance in his policy approach saying the central bank would use tools at its disposal to support the economy as well as to prevent inflation from becoming entrenched.

“While investors no longer have to wonder about who will be leading the Federal Reserve for the next few years, the next big dilemma the central bank faces is how to normalize monetary policy without upsetting markets,” wrote Robert Schein, chief investment officer at Blanke Schein Wealth Management. Following Powell’s renomination, “the market has unwound hedges against a more ‘dovish’ personnel shift,” Chris Weston, head of research with Pepperstone Financial Pty Ltd., wrote in a note.

Not helping was Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic who said Monday that the Fed may need to speed up the removal of monetary stimulus and allow for an earlier-than-planned increase in interest rates

European stocks dropped with market focusing on potential Covid lockdowns and policy tightening over solid PMI data. Euro Stoxx 50 shed as much as 1.7% with tech, financial services and industrial names the hardest hit. Better-than-forecast PMI numbers out of Europe’s major economies prompted money markets to resume bets that the ECB will hike the deposit rate 10 basis points as soon as December 2022, versus 2023 on Monday.

As Goldman notes, the Euro area composite flash PMI increased by 1.6pt to 55.8 in November — strongly ahead of consensus expectations — in a first gain since the post-July moderation. The area-wide gain was broad-based across countries, and sectors. Supply-side issues continued to be widely reported, with input and output price pressures climbing to all-time highs. In the UK, the November flash composite PMI came in broadly as expected, and while input costs rose to a new all-time high, pass-through into output prices appears lower than usual. Forward-looking expectations remain comfortably above historical averages across Europe, although today’s data are unlikely to fully reflect the covid containment measures taken in a number of European countries over recent days.

Key numbers (the responses were collected between 10 and 19 November (except in the UK, where the survey response window spanned 12-19 November).

  • Euro Area Composite PMI (Nov, Flash): 55.8, GS 53.6, consensus 53.0, last 54.2.
    • Euro Area Manufacturing PMI (Nov, Flash): 58.6, GS 57.7, consensus 57.4, last 58.3.
    • Euro Area Services PMI (Nov, Flash): 56.6, GS 53.9, consensus 53.5, last 54.6.
  • Germany Composite PMI (Nov, Flash): 52.8, GS 52.1, consensus 51.0, last 52.0.
  • France Composite PMI (Nov, Flash): 56.3, GS 54.4, consensus 53.9, last 54.7.
  • UK Composite PMI (Nov, Flash): 57.7, GS 57.7, consensus 57.5, last 57.8.

And visually:

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks fell toward a three-week low as Jerome Powell’s renomination to head the Federal Reserve boosted U.S. yields, putting downward pressure on the region’s technology shares. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined as much as 0.5%, as the reappointment sent Treasury yields higher and buoyed the dollar amid concerns monetary stimulus will be withdrawn faster. Consumer discretionary and communication shares were the biggest drags on Asia’s benchmark, with Tencent and Alibaba slipping on worries over tighter regulations in China. “Powell’s renomination was generally expected by the market,” said Chetan Seth, an Asia-Pacific equity strategist at Nomura. The market’s reaction may be short-lived as traders turn their attention to the Fed’s meeting in December and Covid’s resurgence in Europe, he added. Asia shares have struggled to break higher as the jump in yields weighed on sentiment already damped by a lackluster earnings season and the risk of accelerating inflation. The region’s stock benchmark is down about 1% this year compared with a 16% advance in the MSCI AC World Index. Hong Kong and Taiwan were among the biggest decliners, while Australian and Indian shares bucked the downtrend, helped by miners and energy stocks.

India’s benchmark stock index rose, snapping four sessions of declines, boosted by gains in Reliance Industries Ltd.   The S&P BSE Sensex climbed 0.3% to close at 58,664.33 in Mumbai, recovering after falling as much as 1.3% earlier in the session. The NSE Nifty 50 Index gained 0.5%. Of the 30 shares on the Sensex, 21 rose and 9 fell. All but one of the 19 sector sub-indexes compiled by BSE Ltd. advanced, led by a gauge of metal stocks.  Reliance Industries Ltd. gained 0.9%, after dropping the most in nearly 10 months on Monday following its decision to scrap a plan to sell a 20% stake in its oil-to-chemicals unit to Saudi Arabian Oil Co. Shares of One 97 Communications Ltd., the parent company for digital payments firm Paytm, climbed 9.9% after two days of relentless selling since its trading debut.

In rates, Treasuries dropped, with the two-year rate jumping five basis points, helping to flatten the yield curve.

Bunds and Treasuries bear steepened with German 10y yields ~5bps cheaper. Gilts bear flatten, cheapening 1.5bps across the short end. 10Y TSY yields rose as high as 1.67% before reversing some of the move.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed after earlier advancing to the highest level since September 2020 as markets moved to price in a full quarter-point rate hike by the June Fed meeting, with a good chance of two more by year-end; Treasury yields inched up across the curve apart from the front end. The Japanese yen briefly fell past 115 per dollar for the first time since 2017. The euro advanced after better-than-forecast PMI numbers out of Europe’s major economies prompted money markets to resume bets that the ECB will hike the deposit rate 10 basis points as soon as December 2022, versus 2023 on Monday. Sterling declined versus the dollar and the euro; traders are taking an increasingly negative view on the pound, betting that the decline that’s already left the currency near its lowest this year has further to run

New Zealand’s dollar under-performed all G-10 peers as leveraged longs backing a 50 basis-point hike from the central bank were flushed out of the market; sales were mainly seen against the greenback and Aussie. The yuan approached its strongest level against trade partners’ currencies in a sign that traders see a low likelihood of aggressive official intervention. The Turkish lira (see above) crashed to a record low on Tuesday, soaring more than 10% and just shy of 14 vs the USD, a day after President Recep Tayyip Erdogan defended his pursuit of lower interest rates to boost economic growth and job creation.

In commodities, crude futures rebounded sharply after Biden announced a coordinated, global SPR release which would see the US exchange up to 32mm barrels, or a negligible amount. Brent spiked back over $80 on the news after trading in the mid-$78s. Spot gold drops ~$8, pushing back below $1,800/oz. Base metals are well supported with LME nickel outperforming.

Looking at the day ahead, the main data highlight will be the flash PMIs for November from around the world, and there’s also the Richmond Fed manufacturing index for November. Finally from central banks, we’ll hear from BoE Governor Bailey, Deputy Governor Cunliffe and the BoE’s Haskel, as well as ECB Vice President de Guindos and the ECB’s Makhlouf.

Market Snapshot

S&P 500 futures down 0.3% to 4,667.75

Brent Futures down 0.9% to $78.95/bbl

Gold spot down 0.4% to $1,796.86

U.S. Dollar Index down 0.17% to 96.39

 

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • The volatility term structures in the major currencies show that next month’s meetings by monetary policy authorities are what matters most. Data galore out of the U.S. by Wednesday’s New York cut off means demand for one-day structures remains intact, yet it’s not enough to bring about term structure inversion as one-week implieds stay below recent cycle highs
  • Lael Brainard, picked to be vice chair of the Federal Reserve, is expected to be a critical defender of its commitment to maximum employment across demographic groups at a time when other U.S. central bankers are more worried by inflation
  • ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel said there’s an increasing threat of inflation taking hold, as she played down the danger that resurgent coronavirus infections might impede the euro zone’s recovery
  • Regarding latest pandemic restrictions, “when it comes to the impact, I would say that while it will surely have a moderating impact on economic activity, the impact on inflation will actually be more ambiguous because it might also reinforce some of the concerns we have around supply bottlenecks,” ECB Governing Council member Klaas Knot says in Bloomberg Television interview with Francine Lacqua
  • European Union countries are pushing for an agreement on how long Covid-19 vaccinations protect people and how to manage booster shots as they try to counter the pandemic’s fourth wave and safeguard free travel
  • Germany’s top health official reiterated a warning that the government can’t exclude any measures, including another lockdown, as it tries to check the latest wave of Covid-19 infections
  • The State Council, China’s cabinet, released three documents in the past several days, outlining measures to help small and medium-sized enterprises weather the downturn: from encouraging local governments to roll out discounts for power usage to organizing internet companies to provide cloud and digital services to SMEs

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asia-Pac stocks traded mixed following a similar performance in the US where participants digested President Biden’s decision to nominate Fed Chair Powell for a second term and Fed’s Brainard for the Vice Chair role. This resulted in bear flattening for the US curve and underpinned the greenback, while the major indices were choppy but with late selling heading into the close in which the S&P 500 slipped beneath the 4,700 level and the Nasdaq underperformed as tech suffered the brunt of the higher yields. ASX 200 (+0.8%) was positive with sentiment encouraged after stronger PMI data and M&A developments including BHP’s signing of a binding agreement to merge its oil and gas portfolio with Woodside Petroleum to create a global top 10 independent energy company and the largest listed energy company in Australia, which spurred outperformance for the mining and energy related sectors. KOSPI (-0.5%) was lacklustre and retreated below the 3k level amid broad weakness in tech which was not helped by concerns that South Korea could take another aim at large tech through a platform bill and with the government said to be mulling strengthening social distancing measures. Hang Seng (-1.2%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.2%) continued to diverge amid a neutral liquidity effort by the PBoC and with the Hong Kong benchmark conforming to the tech woes, while the mainland was kept afloat after the State Council pledged to strengthen assistance to smaller firms and with Global Times noting that China will likely adopt another RRR cut before year-end to cope with an economic slowdown. Finally, Japanese participants were absent from the market as they observed Labor Thanksgiving Day, while yields in Australia were higher as they tracked global counterparts and following a Treasury Indexed bond offering in the long-end.

Top Asian News

  • Tiger Global Leads $210 Million Round by India Proptech Unicorn
  • China’s Slowdown Tests Central Bank Amid Debate Over Easing
  • Kuaishou Defies China Crackdown as Revenue Climbs 33%
  • Evergrande Shares Jump in Afternoon Trading as Group Units Rally

Major bourses in Europe are lower across the board, but off worst levels (Euro Stoxx 50 -1.1%; Stoxx 600 -1.3%) following on from the mixed APAC performance, but with pandemic restrictions casting a shower over the region. US equity futures are mostly lower but to a lesser extent than European peers, with the YM (+0.1%) the relative outperformer vs the ES (-0.1%), NQ (-0.3%) and RTY (-0.8%). Back to Europe, the morning saw the release of Flash PMIs which failed to spur much action across market given the somewhat stale nature against the backdrop of a worsening COVID situation in Europe. Losses in the UK’s FTSE 100 (-0.1%) are more cushioned vs European counterparts, with heavyweight miners doing the heavy lifting, and as the basic resources sector outpaces and resides as the only sector in the green at the time of writing amid a surge in iron ore prices overnight. Sticking with sectors, there is no clear or overarching theme/bias. Tech resides at the foot of the pile, unaided by the intraday rise in yields. Travel and Leisure also reside towards the bottom of the bunch, but more a function of the “leisure” sub-sector as opposed to the “travel” component, with Evolution Gaming (-3.7%) and Flutter (-3.5%) on the back foot. In terms of individual movers, Thyssenkrupp (-7.0%) tumbles after the Co. announced a secondary offer by Cevian of 43mln shares. Meanwhile, Telecom Italia (-3%) is softer following yesterday’s run, whilst Vivendi (-0.5%) said the current KKR (KKR) offer does not reflect Telecom Italia’s value and it has no intention of offloading its 24% stake.

Top European News

  • U.K. PMIs Show Record Inflation and ‘Green Light’ for BOE Hike
  • Kremlin Says New U.S. Sanctions on Nord Stream 2 Are ‘Illegal’
  • ECB’s Knot Says New Lockdowns Won’t Delay Wind-Down of Stimulus
  • Telefonica Drops, Berenberg Cuts on Spain Margin Problems

In FX, the Buck had already eased off best levels to relieve some pressure from its rivals, but the Euro also derived encouragement from the fact that a key long term Fib held (just) at 1.1225 before getting a rather unexpected fundamental fillip in the form of stronger than forecast flash Eurozone PMIs plus hawkish-sounding comments from ECB’s Schnabel. Eur/Usd duly rebounded to 1.1275 and the Dollar index retreated to 96.308 from a fresh y-t-d peak of 96.603, while the Yen and Franc also took advantage to varying degrees against the backdrop of deteriorating risk sentiment and in thinner trading volumes for the former due to Japan’s Labor Day Thanksgiving holiday. Usd/Jpy recoiled from 115.15 to 114.49 at one stage and Usd/Chf to 0.9301 from 0.9335 before both pairs bounced with the Greenback and a rebound in US Treasury yields ahead of Markit’s preliminary PMIs and Usd 59 bn 7 year note supply.

  • TRY – Simply no respite for the Lira via another marked pull-back in oil prices on heightened prospects of SPR taps, the aforementioned Buck breather or even a decent correction as Usd/Try extended its meteoric rise beyond 11.5000 and 12.0000 towards 12.5000 irrespective of an ally of Turkish President Erdogan urging a debate on CBRT independence. Instead, the run and capital flight continues as talks with the IMF make no progress and an EU court condemns the country for detaining 400+ judges after the coup, while the President rules out a snap election after recent calls for an earlier vote than the scheduled one in 2023 by the main opposition party.
  • NZD/CAD/GBP/AUD – It remains to be seen whether the RBNZ maintains a 25 bp pace of OCR normalisation overnight, but weak NZ retail activity in Q3 may be a telling factor and is applying more downside pressure on the Kiwi across the board, as Nzd/Usd hovers under 0.6950 and the Aud/Nzd cross tests 1.0425 on relative Aussie strength or resilience gleaned from another spike in iron ore that is helping to keep Aud/Usd above 0.7200. Conversely, the latest downturn in crude is undermining the Loonie and the Pound hardly derived any traction from better than anticipated UK PMIs even though they should provide the BoE more justification to hike rates next month. Usd/Cad has now breached 1.2700 and only stopped a few pips short of 1.2750 before fading ahead of comments from BoC’s Beaudry, while Cable topped out just over 1.3400 awaiting BoE Governor Bailey, whilst Haskel reaffirmed his stance in the transitory inflation camp, although suggested that if the labour market remains tight the Bank Rate will have to rise.
  • SCANDI/EM – Hardly a shock that Brent’s reversal has hit the Nok alongside broader risk-aversion that is also keeping the Sek defensive in advance of the Riksbank, but the Zar is coping well considering Gold’s loss of Usd 1800+/oz status and test of chart support at the 100 DMA only a couple of Bucks off the 200. Similarly, the Cnh and Cny are still resisting general Usd strength and other negatives, with help from China’s State Council pledging to strengthen assistance to smaller firms perhaps.

In commodities, WTI and Brent Jan’22 futures remain under pressure with the former back under USD 76/bbl (vs USD 76.59/bbl high) and the latter around USD 79/bbl (vs USD 79.63/bbl high). The WTI contract is also narrowly lagging Brent by some USD 0.30/bbl at the time of writing. Participants are keeping their eyes peeled for reserve releases from the US, potentially in coordination with other nations including China, Japan, and India – with inflation concerns being the common denominator. The move also comes in reaction to OPEC+ flouting calls by large oil consumers, particularly the US, to further open the taps beyond the group’s planned 400k BPD/m hikes. A source cited by Politico caveated that a final decision is yet to be made, and US officials are hoping that the threat of an SPR release would persuade OPEC+ to double their quotas at the Dec 2nd meeting. As it stands, Energy Intel journalist Bakr noted that she has not heard anything from OPEC+ officials about changing production plans, but delegates yesterday suggested that plans may be tweaked. Click here for the full Newsquawk analysis piece. Aside from this, US President Biden is also poised to give a speech on the economy, whilst the weekly Private Inventories will also be released today. Elsewhere, spot gold and have been drifting lower in what is seemingly a function of technical, with the yellow metal dipping under USD 1,800/oz from a USD 1,812/oz current high, with a cluster of DMAs present to the downside including the 100 DMA (around USD 1,793/oz), 200 DMA (around USD 1,791/oz) and 50 DMA (around USD 1,789/oz). Turning to base metals, LME copper holds a positive bias with prices on either side of USD 9,750/t, whilst Dalian iron ore surged overnight – with reports suggesting that steel de-stockpiling accelerated last week, and analysts suggesting that the market is betting on steelmakers in December.

US Event Calendar

  • 9:45am: Nov. Markit US Composite PMI, prior 57.6
  • 9:45am: Nov. Markit US Services PMI, est. 59.0, prior 58.7
  • 9:45am: Nov. Markit US Manufacturing PMI, est. 59.1, prior 58.4
  • 10am: Nov. Richmond Fed Index, est. 11, prior 12

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

A reminder that yesterday we published our 2022 credit strategy outlook. See here for the full report. Craig has also put out a more detailed HY 2022 strategy document here and Karthik a more detail IG equivalent here. Basically we think spreads will widen as much as 30-40bps in IG and 120-160bps in HY due to a response to a more dramatic appreciation of the Fed being well behind the curve. This sort of move is consistent with typical mid-cycle ranges through history. We do expect this to mostly retrace in H2 as markets recover from the shock and growth remains decent and liquidity still high.

We also published the results of our ESG issuer and investor survey where around 530 responded. Please see the results here.

Today is the start of a new adventure as I’m doing my first overseas business trip in 20 months. It took me a stressful 2 hours last night to find and fill in various forms, download various apps and figure out how on earth I travel in this new world. Hopefully I’ve got it all correct or I’ll be turned back at the Eurostar gates! The interesting thing about not travelling is that I’ve filled the time doing other work stuff so productivity will suffer. So if I can do a CoTD today it’ll be done on an iPhone whilst racing through the French countryside. Actually finishing this off very early in a long taxi ride on the way to the train reminds me of how car sick I get working on my iPhone! The delights of travel are all coming flooding back.

After much anticipation over recent weeks, we finally heard yesterday that President Biden would be nominating Fed Chair Powell for another four-year term at the helm of the central bank. In some ways the decision had been widely expected, and Powell was the favourite in prediction markets all along over recent months. But the Fed’s staff trading issues and reports that Governor Brainard was also being considered had led many to downgrade Powell’s chances, so there was an element of uncertainty going into the decision, even if any policy differences between the two were fairly marginal. In the end however, Biden opted for continuity at the top, with Brainard tapped to become Vice Chair instead.

Powell’s nomination will require senate confirmation once again, but this isn’t expected to be an issue, not least with Powell having been confirmed in an 84-13 vote last time around. Further, Senate Banking Committee Chair Brown, viewed as a progressive himself, noted last week there should be no issue confirming Powell despite rumblings from progressive lawmakers. More important to watch out for will be who Biden selects for the remaining positions on the Fed Board of Governors, where there are still 3 vacant seats left to fill, including the position of Vice Chair for Supervision. In a statement released by the White House, it said that Biden intended to make those “beginning in early December”, so even with Powell staying on, there’s actually a reasonable amount of scope for Biden to re-shape the Fed’s leadership. A potential hint about who may be considered, President Biden noted his next appointments will “bring new diversity to the Fed.”

President Biden, flanked by Powell and Brainard, held a press conference following the announcement. He noted maintaining the Fed’s independence and leadership stability informed his decision, and that Chair Powell assured the President he would focus on fighting inflation. He was apparently also assured that the Chair would work to combat climate change, perhaps an olive branch to those in his party that wanted a more progressive nominee. Powell and Brainard both followed up with remarks of their own, but didn’t stray from the recent Fed party line.

In response to the decision, investors moved to bring forward their timing of the initial rate hike from the Fed, with one now just about priced by the time of their June 2022 meeting, whilst the dollar index (+0.54%) strengthened to a fresh one-year high. This reflects the perception among many investors that Brainard was someone who’d have taken the Fed on a more dovish trajectory. Inflation breakevens fell across the curve as well in response. Indeed the 4-year breakeven, which roughly coincides with the term of the next Fed chair, was down -3.8bps after yesterday’s session, with the bulk of that dive coming immediately after the confirmation of Powell’s nomination.

Nevertheless, that decline in breakevens was more than outweighed by a shift higher in real rates that sent nominal yields noticeably higher. By the close, yields on 2yr (+7.8bps) and 5yr (+9.5bps) Treasuries were at their highest levels since the pandemic began, and those on 10yr Treasuries were also up +7.7bps, ending the session at 1.62%. 2yr yields were a full 14.1bps higher than the intra-day lows on Friday after the Austria lockdown news.

We had similar bond moves in Europe too, with yields on 10yr bunds (+4.0bps) moving higher throughout the session thanks to a shift in real rates. Another noticeable feature in the US was the latest round of curve flattening, with the 5s30s (-4.4bps) reaching its flattest level (+64.1bps) since the initial market panic over Covid-19 back in March 2020.

The S&P 500 took a sharp turn heading into the New York close after trading in positive territory for most of the day, ultimately closing down -0.32%. Sector performance was mixed, energy (+1.81%) and financials (+1.43%) were notable outperformers on climbing oil prices and yields, while big tech companies across different sectors were hit by higher discount rates. The NASDAQ (-1.26%) ended the day lower, having pared back its initial gains that earlier put it on track to reach a record of its own.

The other main piece of news yesterday came on the energy front, where it’s been reported that we could have an announcement as soon as today about a release of oil from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve, potentially as part of a joint announcement with other nations. Oil prices were fairly resilient to the news, with Brent crude (+1.03%) and WTI (+0.85%) still moving higher, although both are down from their recent peaks as speculation of such a move has mounted. This could help put some downward pressure on inflation, but as recent releases have shown, price gains have been broadening out over the last couple of months to a wider swathe of categories, so it remains to be seen how helpful this will prove, and will obviously depend on how much is released along with how the OPEC+ group react. For their part, OPEC+ members noted that the moves from the US and its allies would force them to reconsider their production plans at their meeting next week.

Looking ahead now, one of the main highlights today will come from the release of the flash PMIs for November, which will give us an initial indication of how the global economy has fared into the month. As mentioned yesterday, the Euro Area PMIs have been decelerating since the summer, so keep an eye out for how they’re being affected by the latest Covid wave. It’ll also be worth noting what’s happening to price pressures, particularly with inflation running at more than double the ECB’s target right now.

Overnight in Asia stocks are trading mixed with Shanghai Composite (+0.43%), CSI (+0.20%), KOSPI (-0.44%) and Hang Seng (-1.01%) diverging, while the Nikkei is closed for Labor Thanksgiving. The flash manufacturing PMI release from Australia (58.5 vs 58.2 previous) came in close to last month while both the composite (55 vs 52.1 previous) and services (55 vs 51.8 previous) accelerated. In Japan the Yen slid past an important level of 115 against the Dollar for the first time in four years after Powell was confirmed. This marks an overall slide of 10% this year making it the worst performer amongst advanced economy currencies. S&P 500 (-0.01%) and DAX futures (-0.31%) are flat to down with Europe seemingly catching up with the weak U.S. close.

Before this, in Europe yesterday, equities continued to be subdued, with the STOXX 600 down -0.13% after trading in a tight range, as the continent reacted to another surge in Covid-19 cases. The move by Austria back into lockdown has raised questions as to where might be next, and Bloomberg reported that Chancellor Merkel told CDU officials yesterday that the recent surge was worse than anything seen so far, and that additional restrictions would be required. So the direction of travel all appears to be one way for the time being in terms of European restrictions, and even a number of less-affected countries are still seeing cases move in an upward direction, including France, Italy and the UK. So a key one to watch that’ll have big implications for economies and markets too.

Staying on Germany, there was some interesting news on a potential coalition yesterday, with Bloomberg obtaining a preliminary list of cabinet positions that said that FDP leader Christian Lindner would become finance minister, and Green co-leader Robert Habeck would become a “super minister” with responsibility for the economy, climate protection and the energy transition. The report also said that both would become Vice Chancellors, whilst the Greens’ Annalena Baerbock would become foreign minister. It’s worth noting that’s still a preliminary list, and the coalition agreement is yet to be finalised, but it has been widely suggested that the parties are looking to reach a conclusion to the talks this week, so we could hear some more info on this relatively soon.

There wasn’t much in the way of data yesterday, though the European Commission’s advance November consumer confidence reading for the Euro Area fell back by more than expected to -6.8 (vs. -5.5 expected), which is the lowest it’s been since April. Over in the US, there was October data that was somewhat more positive however, with existing home sales rising to an annualised rate of 6.34m (vs. 6.20m expected), their highest level in 9 months. Furthermore, the Chicago Fed’s national activity index was up to 0.76 (vs. 0.10 expected).

To the day ahead now, and the main data highlight will be the aforementioned flash PMIs for November from around the world, and there’s also the Richmond Fed manufacturing index for November. Finally from central banks, we’ll hear from BoE Governor Bailey, Deputy Governor Cunliffe and the BoE’s Haskel, as well as ECB Vice President de Guindos and the ECB’s Makhlouf.

 

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

i) TUESDAY MORNING/MONDAY  NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 7.01 PTS OR  0.20%     //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 299.76 PTS OR 1.20% /The Nikkei closed     //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.69%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  6.3903   /Oil DOWN TO 75.89 dollars per barrel for WTI and DOWN TO 78.67 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED  ALL RED  /ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED  DOWN AT 6.3903 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.3932/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%/

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

///SOUTH KOREA//CHINA

 
 
 
end

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

JAPAN/

end

3 C CHINA

//CHINA//USA

The USA is certainly worried about this:  China’s hypersonic weapon travelling from China over the South Pole to the uSA cannot be detected by USA means

(zerohedge)

China’s Orbital Bombardment System Firing Hypersonic Weapons Showed Unprecedented Capability, FT Says

 
MONDAY, NOV 22, 2021 – 11:20 PM

Since the Financial Times reported China conducted two hypersonic tests over the summer, US officials have expressed concern about technological advances because no nation (except China) can propel a hypersonic weapon into space that can fly over the South Pole, rendering US missile defense systems useless. In other words: a possible checkmate. 

In a new report via FT, People familiar with details of the July 27 test said China launched an “orbital bombardment system” rocket over the South China Sea while moving at five times the speed of sound. Pentagon experts are unsure how China managed to fire a hypersonic glide vehicle from the system while traveling at such speeds in space. It appears China has mastered a technology that Russia and the US have yet to acquire fully. 

The orbital bombardment system could be a checkmate to the US because it flies over the South Pole, putting US missile defense shields out of reach. There’s also the issue of the hypersonic glide vehicle that is highly maneuverable and is hard to shoot down, which suggests the US is prone to a hypersonic missile attack from China. 

FT reported last month that China conducted two hypersonic weapons tests, one on July 27 and another on Aug. 13. Both tests come as Beijing increases its nuclear capability and posture in the South China Sea, Taiwan Strait, and Pacific. 

China’s Foreign Ministry denied reports that the country had tested a hypersonic weapon in space, saying “it was not a missile, it was a space vehicle.”  

The Chinese embassy said it had no idea of a missile test. 

“We are not at all interested in having an arms race with other countries,” said Liu Pengyu, the embassy spokesperson. “The US has in recent years been fabricating excuses like ‘the China threat’ to justify its arms expansion and development of hypersonic weapons.”

Meanwhile, US Vice-Chairman of the Joint Chiefs General John Hyten told CBS News’ David Martin last week that China’s recent hypersonic missile test that went around the world “is a very significant capability that has the potential to change a lot of things.” 

China’s hypersonic weapons tests suggest President Xi Jinping has or is on the brink of checkmate with the US when deploying advanced weapons. Orbital strikes from China on the US mainland via hypersonic glide vehicles could be a severe threat because US defense shields may not stop the weapons.

end

TAIWAN/EU/CHINA

 

CHINA///USA

 

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

 

EU/NORDSTREAM II/USA

European gas prices jump again as the uSA announces NordStream2 sanctions. This is a noose around the necks of the Europeans

(zerohedge)

European Gas Prices Jump As US Announces Nord Stream 2 Sanctions

 
 
TUESDAY, NOV 23, 2021 – 09:02 AM

On Tuesday, European natural gas futures jumped after the U.S. imposed new sanctions on the highly contested Nord Stream 2 pipeline. 

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken issued a statement on Monday describing the new round of sanctions targeting a vessel and a “Russian-linked entity” called Transadria Ltd. associated with the pipeline’s construction that allows natural gas flows from Russia directly to Germany. 

Blinken said a report had been sent to Congress and the sanctions support Protecting Europe’s Energy Security Act of 2019. There’s been a lot of concern over Moscow’s ability to leverage natural gas supplies over Europe. 

“Today’s report is in line with the United States’ continuing opposition to the Nord Stream 2 pipeline and the U.S. Government’s continued compliance with PEESA,” Blinken said in his statement. “With today’s action, the Administration has now sanctioned 8 persons and identified 17 of their vessels as blocked property pursuant to PEESA in connection with Nord Stream 2.”

“Even as the Administration continues to oppose the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, including via our sanctions, we continue to work with Germany and other allies and partners to reduce the risks posed by the pipeline to Ukraine and frontline NATO and E.U. countries and to push back against harmful Russian activities, including in the energy sphere,” Blinken said.

Any action against the Nord Stream 2 has stoked higher natural gas prices in Europe. After the U.S. announced sanctions, the Dutch month-ahead gas, the European benchmark, increased as much as 8.7% to 91.34 euros a megawatt-hour. 

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said the move by the U.S. to sanction a ship involved in the pipeline construction is “illegal and wrong.” He said, “We view this extremely negatively.” 

Nord Stream 2 is one of several undersea pipelines that Russia has laid in the Black Sea and Baltic Sea to replace old pipelines that run through eastern Europe. The move to reshuffle supplies could allow Moscow to target eastern Europe and western Europe energy flows. 

Natural gas flows on the controversial pipeline have yet to begin and suffered a significant setback last week after the German energy regulator suspended the certification process. Even though the lines are filled with natural gas, the latest hurdles could suggest gas will not be flowing during the Northern Hemisphere winter amid Europe’s lowest gas storage levels since 2013. 

Europe is hungry for more gas. If E.U. politicians want to remain in power by not upsetting their constituents over soaring energy inflation, they might have to rely on Moscow, a move that would infuriate Washington. 

Categories

end

AUSTRIA
 

end

 

GERMANY//COVID/VACCINE MANDATE

Germany refuses to rule out the criminal mandatory COVID vaccination similar to Austria

(zerohedge)

German Politicians Refuse To Rule Out Mandatory COVID Vaccination

 
TUESDAY, NOV 23, 2021 – 02:45 AM

In view of Germany’s dramatic Covid situation, and following last Friday’s news that neighboring Austria will impose a mandatory vaccination starting February, the debate about a general vaccination obligation is gaining momentum, with a growing number of political leaders saying they would not rule it out.  

On Thursday, the heads of the 16 federal states agreed that mandatory vaccinations for health workers should be carried out “on a facility-by-facility basis” and urged the federal government to implement this as soon as possible. But discussions for mandatory vaccines for the general population are also intensifying.

According to TheLocal.de, during a press conference about the availability of mRNA vaccines on Monday morning, Health Minister Jens Spahn (CDU) repeatedly refused to rule out the possibility of introducing mandatory vaccination in Germany in the future. 

“That is not a decision we can make today,” he told reporters. 

On Sunday evening, SPD health expert Karl Lauterbach had also raised the possibility of compulsory vaccinations in a talk show on the TV station Bild: “We must move towards vaccination obligation,” he argued. “Without compulsory vaccinations, we obviously won’t achieve the vaccination rate we need to get to.” 

On Monday morning the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) announced a  seven-day incidence of 386.5, reaching a new high for the 15th day in a row. 30,643 new infections within 24 hours were also reported, although fewer case numbers are usually reported over the weekend.

Bavaria’s Health Minister Klaus Holetschek also recently said that he would not rule out a general vaccination requirement.

“I was always actually an opponent of compulsory vaccination,” he told Deutschlandfunk radio. However, he now believes “that we need to talk about this issue relatively quickly.”

“Personally, I am now actually in favour of this general vaccination obligation as a last resort,” he said. Bavaria is currently one of the worst-hit federal states in Germany: on Monday the Robert Koch Institut reported an incidence of 640 in the region.

The president of the Robert Koch Institute (RKI), Lothar Wieler, expressed restraint in the debate about compulsory vaccination, but said that it could be seen as “as a last resort” on ZDF television on Sunday. But he repeated his calls for people to get vaccinated voluntarily. “We must ensure that we get as many people as possible to vaccinate, and boost those who have complete basic immunisation,” he said. 

As of November 21st,  68 percent (56.5 milllion people) of the overall population were fully vaccinated, and at least 70.5 percent had received at least one dose. But in some states the vaccination rate is considerably lower – in Sachsen, the rate of vaccinated people is only at 59.8 percent.

There are already strong objections from some politicians to the idea of a mandatory vaccination, however. The deputy leader of the FDP parliamentary group, Michael Theurer, told the Bild programme: “We think it’s unconstitutional.” 

The deputy chairman of the CDU/CSU parliamentary group in the Bundestag, Thorsten Frei, also expressed great skepticism.  He told Die Welt: “A general vaccination requirement is likely to be disproportionate and thus unconstitutional under the current framework conditions because of the serious interference in the right to physical integrity.”

end

 

UK/ENERGY

A mixture of 3 black swans hitting the UK

i) extreme gas price volatility has led to a string of bankruptcies among British energy suppliers.

ii) UK household gas bills have risen by 28.1% and electricity bills 18.8% in one year (Oct/Oct)

iii) Germany’s recent decision to halt Nord stream 2 gas has added to the UK energy probelms

(oilprice.com)

Brits Google “Energy Bill Help” As More Suppliers Go Bankrupt

 
TUESDAY, NOV 23, 2021 – 03:30 AM

Via OilPrice.com,

  • Extreme gas price volatility has led to a string of bankruptcies among British energy suppliers

  • UK Household gas bills have risen by 28.1 percent and electricity bills 18.8 percent in the year to October

  • Germany’s recent decision to halt approval of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline has added to UK energy woes

Google searches for ‘energy bill help’ exploded over three thousand percent in the UK on November 17, the same day two more energy suppliers collapsed.

Neon Energy and Social Energy Supply both ceased trading earlier this week, leaving 35,000 more customers in need of rescue from market regulator Ofgem.

Recent analysis of Google data from energy experts Boiler Central showed a massive spike in people looking for help with their energy bills.

This included a whopping 212 percent increase in searches for cheaper heating alternatives including ‘portable heater’ on November 17 as well.

Since the start of September, 21 energy companies have ceased trading due to soaring wholesale costs, while half of the country’s dual-suppliers have crashed out of the market in the past 12 months.

Household gas bills have risen by 28.1 percent and electricity bills 18.8 percent in the year to October, according to the ONS.

Germany’s recent decision to halt approval of a gas pipeline from Russia has also caused wholesale gas prices to jump 17 percent in the UK and EU.

Meanwhile, Ofgem is set to examine and potentially increase the energy price cap from its current £1,277 average use limit next year.

A spokesperson for Boiler Central said:

“The rise in searches for help with energy bills in the UK, as well as an increase in searches for portable heaters, exposes how much recent soaring energy bills are affecting people.”

The organisation also pointed to grants and schemes available to help people on low incomes or universal credit with energy bills, such as a winter fuel payment or the warm home discount scheme – which could provide £140 discounts off electricity bills, in the form of vouchers for a household prepayment meter.

END 

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

IRAN
 

END

RUSSIA/UKRAINE/USA

Buchanan comments on the problems on the Ukraine/Russia border

(Pat Buchanan)

Playing With Fire On Russia’s Borders

 
TUESDAY, NOV 23, 2021 – 09:25 AM

Authored by Pat Buchanan,

Belarusian autocrat Alexander Lukashenko has cleared out the encampment at his border crossing into Poland, where thousands of Middle Eastern migrants had been living in squalor.

Last week, that border crossing was the site of clashes between asylum-seekers trying to push through the razor wire and Polish troops resisting with water cannons.

While the crisis between Warsaw and Minsk has not ended, it appears to have been temporarily eased.

Behind the clash was the recent election in Belarus that the European Union saw as fraudulent and Lukashenko’s interception of a commercial airliner to kidnap and imprison a critical journalist.

Lukashenko brought in the migrants from the Mideast and moved them to the border, forcing the Poles to deploy security forces to block their entry. Lukashenko’s actions were in retaliation for Poland’s support of the sanctions the EU had imposed on Belarus.

So it was that, last week, a NATO ally, Poland, had a confrontation with a close ally of Vladimir Putin’s Russia, which could have resulted in a shooting war that could have drawn in Russia and the United States.

While Belarus, perhaps at Putin’s insistence, has pulled the migrants back from the border and eased this crisis, the same cannot be said of the crisis developing around Ukraine.

For days now, U.S. officials have been warning that the 100,000 Russian troops stationed near the borders of Ukraine may be preparing for an invasion.

As Ukraine is not a NATO ally, the U.S. is under no obligation to come to Kyiv’s defense. But any Russian invasion to expand the share of Ukraine it now controls could produce a crisis more serious than Putin’s annexation of Crimea or support for the separatists in the Donbas.

For Putin, the situation in the Black Sea, where U.S. warships and warplanes lead NATO vessels on regular visitations, must truly stick in the craw.

When Putin was a KGB officer in the last days of the Soviet Empire, Romania and Bulgaria on the Black Sea were Warsaw Pact allies. Ukraine, Georgia and Armenia on the Black Sea were, like Russia itself, Soviet republics of the USSR. NATO Turkey alone excepted, the Black Sea was a Soviet lake.

And today? Romania and Bulgaria are NATO allies of the United States. Ukraine and Georgia, having broken free of the USSR at the end of the Cold War, are independent nations that look to Europe, not Moscow.

The goal of both is become NATO allies under the protection of the U.S. and its nuclear umbrella.

Another consideration: Ukraine and Russia have historic ties — religious, ethnic, cultural — that go back 1,000 years.

What Putin sees in Russia’s loss of Ukraine and Kyiv’s alignment with the U.S. and the West was what Americans of Abraham Lincoln’s generation saw when France exploited our preoccupation with the Civil War to turn Mexico into a subject nation of the French Empire.

Consider.

Every nation involved in the migrant crisis on the Polish border and the gathering crisis around Ukraine was either a Soviet republic or a Warsaw Pact member during the Cold War, when Putin was a KGB officer.

All four nations — Poland, Lithuania, Ukraine, Belarus — were, not so long ago, vital interests of Moscow. And none had ever been a vital interest of the distant United States. And no U.S. Cold War president ever thought so.

  • Dwight Eisenhower did not intervene to save the Hungarian Revolution when it was crushed by Soviet tanks.

  • John F. Kennedy did not tear down the Berlin Wall as it was going up.

  • Lyndon B. Johnson did not intervene to stop Warsaw Pact armies from invading Czechoslovakia to crush the Prague Spring.

  • And Ronald Reagan did not put the Polish Communist regime in default on its huge unpaid debt when it crushed Solidarity.

Who rules in Minsk has never been a vital interest of the United States. Nor has the location of the Russia-Ukraine border or the political orientation of the regime that rules in Kyiv.

Avoiding a war with Russia that could go nuclear, however, has always been a vital strategic interest, especially since Moscow acquired nuclear weapons. Every American president has known that.

And avoidance of war with the United States has been a guiding principle of Russian foreign policy from Stalin to Putin.

No political dispute in the east of Europe alters these realities.

A NATO alliance built around Article V — the declaration that a Russian attack on any one of 30 nations will be regarded as an attack on the United States and answered by military action by the United States — is an anachronistic pledge that belongs to a dead era.

After all, the only war that NATO, “the most successful alliance in history,” ever fought, Afghanistan, it lost and left after 20 years.

Let the nations of Eastern Europe solve their problems without the constant intervention of the United States.

Given the disastrous record of the neocon wars of the 21st century, the U.S., facing every new crisis, ought to ask itself before acting:

Why is this quarrel any of our business?

end

Robert H to us:

Ukrainian Troops Have Been Firing American-Made Javelin Missiles At Russian-Backed Forces

 
 
 
 
Some people might call this war mongering. And yet daily they shout the Russians are coming while they refuse to honor agreements made to have peace and balance Russia.
Patsies come in many forms and the failed country called the Ukraine is one patsy to be used as cannon fodder.
Not to be left behind Britain and other countries like Turkey etc. take full advantage to sell war materials and facility improvements using scarce currency denied the citizens there. One may ponder the difference between a war profiteer and a war criminal as both contribute to death of innocent people.
Europe is headed for disaster as it has no runway of debt left to run. So tyranny comes to be used to subdue the public into obedience using vaccinations as the excuse. War requires willing sacrifice of life and tyranny of the public does not stop missiles or tanks.
So once Russia is threatened once too often or a red line is crossed that leaves them no choice, war will come. It always does with untold consequences.
So as European countries run out of money to pay for natural gas reliant on Russia and America imports diesel from Russia on the east coast to keep wheels turning while Biden sells American crude to the Chinese; one does wonder how this will end, if and when war comes?  Will Russia shut down the flow of natural gas to Europe and desperately needed diesel letting east coast America flounder ? One imagines Klaus might be happy as that would allow the attempted Great Reset based on collapse of the EU and the nightmare of communism. At that point but politicians who bought into the program will endure the myth it was. If the prospect of war was not so serious, this situation would be hilariously stupid. Leaving a thinking Person to wonder what part of history have people forgotten? Yes, Russia has trillions in natural resources envied by many foreign monied oligarchs. And Russians are not so stupid as not to see and are brave enough to fight to the last Russian. The real question is whether other countries possess a populace willing to fight on foreign soil to the last breath? History suggests not.

 

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/43239/ukrainian-troops-have-been-firing-american-made-javelins-at-russian-backed-forces

TURKEY

After imploding down to 13.4 to the dollar, the Turkish lira has settled at 12.4 to the dollar.

(zerohedge)

Erdogan Meets With Central Bank Chief As Lira Craters Almost 20% In Hours

 
TUESDAY, NOV 23, 2021 – 09:12 AM

Turkish lira shorts – such as this website – knew that making money by betting on the implosion of Erdogan’s authoritarian caliphate was just a matter of time. They just didn’t know the implosion would take place this quick, because after tumbling for 10 straight day, the currency’s 11-day losing streak – which is the longest in 20 years – saw Erdocoin (f/k/a lira) collapse almost 20% IN ONE DAY – crashing all the way to 13.4539 after opening at 11.3853…

… hitting a fresh all-time low and bringing the currency’s YTD losses to over 40%, blowing out the Argentine peso in the process.

The collapse, which has been going on for the past 4 years really, accelerated yesterday after Erdogan used a televised speech late Monday to defend his support for lower interest rates to boost economic growth and job creation (see “Erdogan Tells Lira To Drop Dead As Currency Collapse Threatens Financial System, Bank Runs, Hyperinflation“).

The selloff then really kicked into high gear when Erdogan’s government ally and MHP leader Devlet Bahceli spoke at party’s parliamentary group meeting in Ankara, said that Central bank independence should be debated and “independent institutions cannot be above the will of the nation” hinting that the Turkish Central Bank is likely about to be nationalized formally as opposed to just informally.

Bahceli said that he supports the government’s policy on the economy, saying “Turkey should be free of interest rate burden” adding – to the horror of any remaining lira longs – that “tight monetary policy would hurt economy” more than the impact of lower rates and lira weakness. Meanwhile, the Turkish central bank – anything but “independent” – has been egged on by Erdogan to make combined cuts of 4 percentage points to the one-week repo rate since September, even as inflation soared to almost 20% last month.

Which brings us to the latest development in this soap opera, when Bloomberg reported that Erdogan met his own central bank Governor puppet Sahap Kavcioglu in Ankara, amid the historic collapse in the lira. 

It wasn’t immediately clear what was discussed as the central bank and presidency declined to comment when asked if a meeting took place, although we doubt that Erdogan will backtrack so fast on his vows to keep pressing rates lower, and the most likely topic of conversation was how to crush evil lira shorts, while continuing to cut rates. Good luck with that.

end

BELARUS//POLAND

 

6.Global Issues

CORONAVIRUS UPDATE

Huge!

Abstract showing dramatical increase in endothelial inflammatory markets and ACS risk

(Journal of Circulation)

Abstract 10712: Mrna COVID Vaccines Dramatically Increase Endothelial Inflammatory Markers and ACS Risk as Measured by the PULS Cardiac Test: a Warning | Circulation

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
end
Dr Cameron on viewing the abstract that was sent to him by the Journal of Circulation,( the number one  journal for heart matters) demands a stop today for all Pfizer shots.

Covid Jab Program STOPS Today, November 22, 2021, “or we KNOW it’s a Cull”

 
 
 

 
First VAERS report on the important side effects for the Pfizer 5 to 11 year old COVID jab
 
(VAERS)

Seizure, Cardiogenic Shock & Blurred Vision Listed as Side Effects in First VAERS Reports For 5-11 Year Olds Post COVID-19 Jab

 
 
 
 
Vaccine Impact: not only stillbirths but 50 x ectopic pregnancies following COVID shots.
(Vaccine Impact/Vaers)

VAERS Data Reveals 50 X More Ectopic Pregnancies Following COVID Shots than Following ALL Vaccines for Past 30 Years

November 22, 2021 4:44 pm
The carnage of deaths to unborn babies following COVID-19 shots into pregnant women just gets worse the more we investigate it. While we reported on Saturday that the latest data dump into the government’s Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) showed 2,620 fetal deaths, which are more fetal deaths than are reported following ALL vaccines for the past 30 years in VAERS, one “symptom” that is tracked in VAERS that I did not account for, is an ectopic pregnancy which also results in a fetal death. WebMD defines “ectopic pregnancy”: “Ectopic pregnancy, also called extrauterine pregnancy, is when a fertilized egg grows outside a woman’s uterus, somewhere else in their belly. It can cause life-threatening bleeding and needs medical care right away. In more than 90% of cases, the egg implants in a fallopian tube. This is called a tubal pregnancy. Because a fertilized egg can’t survive outside a uterus, your doctor will need to take it out so you don’t have serious health problems. They’ll use one of two methods: medication or surgery.” I performed a search in VAERS for ectopic pregnancies following COVID-19 shots for the past 11 months, and there have been 52 cases where a pregnant mother received a COVID-19 shot and then was found to have an ectopic pregnancy. Next, I performed the exact same search but excluded COVID-19 “vaccines” and it returned a result of 30 cases where a pregnant mother received an FDA-approved vaccine and then reported an ectopic pregnancy following ALL vaccines for the past 30+ years, which is about 1 per year. That means that following COVID-19 injections into pregnant women for the past 11 months has seen a 50 X increase in ectopic pregnancies compared to pregnant women receiving vaccines for the past 30+ years. And if I and anyone else with Internet access can perform these searches in the government owned data in VAERS, you can be certain that the FDA and CDC can too, and that they are aware of these risks. This is criminal. This is nothing more than barbaric forced sterilization, which was once legal in the U.S., but was later outlawed as part of the eugenics movement that valued certain human beings over others, and is part of Nazism. We are seeing many examples of these fetal deaths being reported, and we have published a lot of those, but here are some more as these reports continue to flood in.
 
end
 
CDC and big Pharma data confirm that more children will die from COVID than from the Virus.
(Joe Hoft)

HUGE: CDC and Big Pharma Data Confirm that More Children will Die from COVID Vaccine than from the COVID Virus

The world has gone mad.  We knew when ‘experts’ decided to vaccinate children that there would be more deaths from the vaccination than from COVID.  Now we have support for this based on CDC and Big Pharma data.

We’ve known since the first data was released, that healthy children were virtually unaffected from COVID-19.  The elderly over age 75 were a different story.  (See USA Today chart below from October.)

But now the powers that be want to give the COVID vaccines to children.  The problem with this is that more children will die from the vaccine than will die from COVID in the first place and there’s proof.

 

Toby Rogers put this analysis altogether.  He shares:

I was reading the CDC’s “Guidance for Health Economics Studies Presented to the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP), 2019 Update” and I realized that the FDA’s woeful risk-benefit analysis in connection with Pfizer’s EUA application to jab children ages 5 to 11 violates many of the principles of the CDC’s Guidance document. The CDC “Guidance” document describes 21 things that every health economics study in connection with vaccines must do and the FDA risk-benefit analysis violated at least half of them…

…First a little background. The Number Needed to Treat (NNT) in order to prevent a single case, hospitalization, ICU admission, or death, is a standard way to measure the effectiveness of any drug. It’s an important tool because it enables policymakers to evaluate tradeoffs between a new drug, a different existing drug, or doing nothing. In vaccine research the equivalent term is Number Needed to Vaccinate (NNTV, sometimes also written as NNV) in order to prevent a single case, hospitalization, ICU admission, or death (those are 4 different NNTVs that one could calculate).

Pharma HATES talking about NNTV and they hate talking about NNTV even more when it comes to COVID-19 vaccines because the NNTV is so ridiculously high that this vaccine could not pass any honest risk-benefit analysis.

Rogers goes on to share some estimates on COVID NNTV from experts:

Various health economists have calculated a NNTV for COVID-19 vaccines.

  • Ronald Brown, a health economist in Canada, estimated that the NNTV to prevent a single caseof coronavirus is from 88 to 142.
  • Others have calculated the NNTV to prevent a single case at 256.
  • German and Dutch researchers, using a large (500k) data set from a field study in Israel calculated an NNTV between 200 and 700 to prevent one case of COVID-19 for the mRNA shot marketed by Pfizer. They went further and figured out that the “NNTV to prevent one death is between 9,000 and 100,000 (95% confidence interval), with 16,000 as a point estimate.”

Rogers then goes on to share a piece from Bobby Kennedy about Pfizer’s clinical trial.

In Pfizer’s 6 month clinical trial in adults — there was 1 covid death out of 22,000 in the vaccine (“treatment”) group and 2 Covid deaths out of 22,000 in the placebo group (see Table s4). So NNTV = 22,000. The catch is there were 5 heart attack deaths in the vaccine group and only 1 in placebo group. So for every 1 life saved from Covid, the Pfizer vaccine kills 4 from heart attacks. All cause mortality in the 6 month study was 20 in vaccine group and 14 in placebo group. So a 42% all cause mortality increase among the vaccinated. The vaccine loses practically all efficacy after 6 months so they had to curtail the study. They unblinded and offered the vaccine to the placebo group. At that point the rising harm line had long ago intersected the sinking efficacy line.

After noting that Pfizer changed their study parameters when calculating NNTV on children to hide the harms of the vaccine, Rogers shared the following:

All of the NNTV estimates above are based on data from adults. In kids the NNTV will be even higher (the lower the risk, the higher the NNTV to prevent a single bad outcome). Children ages 5 to 11 are at extremely low risk of death from coronavirus. In a meta-analysis combining data from 5 studies, Stanford researchers Cathrine Axfors and John Ioannidis found a median infection fatality rate (IFR) of 0.0027% in children ages 0-19. In children ages 5 to 11 the IFR is even lower. Depending on the study one looks at, COVID-19 is slightly less dangerous or roughly equivalent to the flu in children.

Rogers then lays out the number of individuals that would need to be vaccinated in order to save one child’s life from a COVID death:

  • As of October 30, 2021, the CDC stated that 170 children ages 5 to 11 have died of COVID-19-related illness since the start of the pandemic. (That represents less than 0.1% of all coronavirus-related deaths nationwide even though children that age make up 8.7% of the U.S. population).
  • The Pfizer mRNA shot only “works” for about 6 months (it increases risk in the first month, provides moderate protection in months 2 through 4 and then effectiveness begins to wane, which is why all of the FDA modeling only used a 6 month time-frame). So any modeling would have to be based on vaccine effectiveness in connection with the 57 (170/3) children who might otherwise have died of COVID-related illness during a 6-month period.
  • At best, the Pfizer mRNA shot might be 80% effective against hospitalizations and death. That number comes directly from the FDA modeling (p. 32). I am bending over backwards to give Pfizer the benefit of considerable doubt because again, the Pfizer clinical trial showed NO reduction in hospitalizations or death in this age group. So injecting all 28,384,878 children ages 5 to 11 with two doses of Pfizer (which is what the Biden administration wants to do) would save, at most, 45 lives (0.8 effectiveness x 57 fatalities that otherwise would have occurred during that time period = 45).
  • So then the NNTV to prevent a single fatality in this age group is 630,775 (28,384,878 / 45). But it’s a two dose regimen so if one wants to calculate the NNTV per injection the number doubles to 1,261,550. It’s literally the worst NNTV in the history of vaccination.

Rogers then goes on to provide an estimate of the number of children with deadly side effects from taking the COVID vaccine.

  • Kirsch, Rose, and Crawford (2021) estimate that VAERS undercounts fatal reactions by a factor of 41 which would put the total fatal side effects in this age-range at 5,248. (Kirsch et al. represents a conservative estimate because others have put the underreporting factor at 100.)

Rogers sums it up as follows:

So, to put it simply, the Biden administration plan would kill 5,248 children via Pfizer mRNA shots in order to save 45 children from dying of coronavirus.

For every one child saved by the shot, another 117 would be killed by the shot.

The Pfizer mRNA shot fails any honest risk-benefit analysis in children ages 5 to 11.

More… Dr. Michael Yeadon, former Pfizer VP argued earlier this month that children are 50 times more likely to be killed by the COVID vaccines than the virus itself,”

Yeadon was a chief scientific officer and vice president at Pfizer before he left in 2011 after more than 16 years at the company.

Yeadon also told Steve Bannon earlier this month, “It’s a crazy thing to vaccinate (children) with something that is actually 50 times more likely to kill them than the virus itself,”

end

Now Reuters itself is in disbelief that Pfizer will delay the release of its data for 55 years.

(Reuters)

“Wait, What?” Even Reuters Tripping Out On 55-Year Delay To Release Pfizer Vax Data

 
MONDAY, NOV 22, 2021 – 10:40 PM

Last week attorney Aaron Siri of Injecting Freedom reported that the FDA is going to take 55 years, or until 2076, to disclose all of the data and information it relied on before approving Pfizer’s Covid-19 vaccine.

The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) headquarters in White Oak, Maryland, August 29, 2020. REUTERS/Andrew Kelly

Following its publication, we expected the usual constellation of conflicted neerdowell ‘fact checkers’ to shoot it down – or at least, spin what was going on.

To our surprise, that wasn’t the case. In fact, Reuters– whose founder and former CEO sits on the board of Pfizerlooked into the matter and was apparently shocked:

Here’s how they explain it:

The 1967 FOIA law requires federal agencies to respond to information requests within 20 business daysHowever, the time it takes to actually get the documents “will vary depending on the complexity of the request and any backlog of requests already pending at the agency,” according to the government’s central FOIA website.

Justice Department lawyers representing the FDA note in court papers that the plaintiffs are seeking a huge amount of vaccine-related material – about 329,000 pages.

The plaintiffs, a group of more than 30 professors and scientists from universities including Yale, Harvard, UCLA and Brownfiled suit in September in U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Texas, seeking expedited access to the records. They say that releasing the information could help reassure vaccine skeptics that the shot is indeed “safe and effective and, thus, increase confidence in the Pfizer vaccine.”

But the FDA can’t simply turn the documents over wholesale. The records must be reviewed to redact “confidential business and trade secret information of Pfizer or BioNTech and personal privacy information of patients who participated in clinical trials,” wrote DOJ lawyers in a joint status report filed Monday.

The article explains how the FDA proposed releasing 500 pages per month on a rolling basis – informing the court that they only have 10 employees in the branch that would handle the review, and are currently processing around 400 other FOIA requests.

“By processing and making interim responses based on 500-page increments, FDA will be able to provide more pages to more requesters, thus avoiding a system where a few large requests monopolize finite processing resources and where fewer requesters’ requests are being fulfilled,” wrote DOJ attorneys, citing other cases in which the 500 monthly page production was upheld.

The plaintiffs, on the other hand, point out that the FDA has 18,000 employees and a budget of $6 billion – and “has itself said that there is nothing more important than the licensure of this vaccine and being transparent about this vaccine.”

Since the first batch of documents were released, people have already noted some disturbing findings. What could the rest of the documents reveal?

This is certainly better than all the crap that is before us
 
Joe Pinkstone/Science Correspondent
 
and special thanks to Chris Powell for bringing this to our attention
 

Covid vaccine that creates T-cells ‘gives better immune response than current jabs’

CoVac-1 jab has strong phase one trial results, as evidence emerges that T-cells may be key in conferring long-term protection

 

A new vaccine designed to specifically create T-cells against Covid produces a better immune response than the alternatives already in use, according to trial data.

The CoVac-1 jab has been developed and made by academics at the University of Tubingen, in Germany.

The cells form part of the immune response to protect people against infections and often work in tandem with antibodies. However, while antibody levels often decline over time and need boosting, T-cells have the ability to stay in the bloodstream for several years.

Evidence is emerging that T-cell levels from vaccines may be key in conferring long-term protection against Covid, but studying the level of them in a person’s system is difficult.

“The induction of SARS-CoV-2 T-cell immunity is a central goal for vaccine development and of particular importance for patients with congenital or acquired B-cell deficiencies,” the researchers wrote in a paper published in Nature. “The latter comprise cancer patients with disease or treatment-related immunoglobulin deficiency.”

T-cell response ‘is actually more durable’

Phase one trial data from 36 people who received the experimental jab early this year showed the vaccine to be safe and capable of producing a robust immune response.

The scientists said the vaccine’s T-cell response “surpassed those detected after SARS-CoV-2 infection as well as after vaccination with approved vaccines”.

Data suggest that the vaccine, a single shot in the stomach, produces 3.5 times as many T-cells as the Pfizer/BioNTech jab and 20 times as many as the AstraZeneca vaccine. “Furthermore, vaccine-induced T-cell responses were unaffected by current SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern,” the scientists said.

Although the study is small, the results are promising because nobody in the trial tested positive for Covid in the three months following their T-cell jab. The team suggested the vaccine would make for an effective complementary vaccine, particularly for the elderly and immunocompromised, alongside the currently approved jabs.

T-cells are becoming of increasing interest to vaccine makers and clinicians as a way to further protect people against disease.

“The antibody response is what drives the immediate reaction or defence of the body when you’re attacked by the virus and the T-cell response takes a little longer to come in but it’s actually more durable, it lasts longer and the body remembers that longer,” Pascal Soriot, the chief executive of AstraZeneca, said on Tuesday.

“T-cells do matter, in particular as it relates to the durability of the response, especially in older people.”

GLOBAL ISSUES/GLOBAL INFLATION ISSUES

CANADA

The flooding certainly had a devastating attack on Canada’s economy

(Freightwaves)

Port Of Vancouver Rail Service Could Resume This Week As 47 Ships Wait To Dock

 
TUESDAY, NOV 23, 2021 – 12:28 PM

By Nate Tabak of FreightWaves,

Rail service at the Port of Vancouver could resume this week as CN and Canadian Pacific crews worked to repair sections of their networks hit by the devastating floods and landslides in British Columbia while impacts continued to strain the supply chain. 

CP said it expects to resume service during the middle of the week. CN didn’t provide an estimate for restoring service, but said on Friday that repairs would “continue at least into next week.”

CN and CP’s rail lines serving the port between Kamloops and Vancouver have been out of service this week following a deadly storm that brought heavy rainfall, flooding and landslides. Forty-seven vessels were at anchor at the Port of Vancouver — Canada’s busiest — as of Monday morning, including 19 grain, 12 coal and 6 container ships.

“This is more than a standard hiccup,” said Barry Prentice, a professor of supply chain management at the University of Manitoba’s Asper School of Business.

I don’t know how long it’s going to take to fix this. But it’s not going to be quick, cheap or easy.”

Global shipping line Maersk warned customers that the impacts at the port could last for weeks.  

“We will see increased congestion at terminals and expect vessel delays,” Maersk wrote in an advisory Friday.

Meanwhile, the damage and flooding from the storm have closed roads throughout the province, limiting truck access to the port as well as to the rest of Canada. Trucks have been rerouted through the U.S. to reach the port and support relief efforts. 

Agreements between U.S. Customs and Border Protection and Canada Border Services Agency officials have allowed Canadian trucks to transit through the U.S. to reach British Columbia. 

CN also has been working with customers to utilize the Port of Prince Rupert, which remains accessible. 

The disruption has compounded the strains from the demands of record volumes of bulk cargo and containers. The port reported a 24% increase in container volumes and a 7% increase in overall cargo volumes for the first six months of 2021.

This is the second time in less than a year that the port has seen a significant disruption due to weather. Wildfires over the summer snarled CN and CP’s rail service.

“The supply chain will go back to normal, but climate change has its fingerprints all over this event in Vancouver,” Prentice said. “I guess now we should just start to expect some kind of a disruption happening at least every year.”

 

end

 

 
LA PALMA VOLCANO ERUPTION
 

Rabobank: Whatever Powell Does From Here Is Going To End Very, Very Badly

 
TUESDAY, NOV 23, 2021 – 01:27 PM

By Michael Every of Rabobank

‘The Powell of the Powerless’?!

Jerome Powell got the renomination for a second stint as Fed Chair despite an ethics scandal and criticism from some Progressives that he is too pro-bank and not pro-environment enough. There was no “Let’s go Brainard”, but the candidate associated with MMT and a digital Dollar is nominated for the powerful Vice-Chair.

Our Fed Watcher Philip Marey notes the decision was for continuity but adds: “The choice between Powell and Brainard was a choice between two Fed insiders who share the Fed’s groupthink. Biden’s advisors should realize that while the President is pursuing expansive left-wing fiscal policies to redistribute income and wealth from the rich to the poor, they have advised him to maintain a monetary policy approach that is increasing wealth inequality. Instead of spending trillions through fiscal policy, Biden could have started the reversal of monetary policies that have led to a rapid increase in wealth inequality since the global financial crisis spurred the Fed into quantitative easing, which is boosting the assets of the rich. A missed opportunity for the ‘social justice warriors’, another victory for the stock markets. Happy Thanksgiving!” However, it was the US Dollar, especially versus the struggling Euro, and not US stocks that was immediately lifted by the Powell news.

Indeed, while Powell retained his job, he has also been given a poisoned chalice. Inflation is a serious problem; rent, food, and energy are all rising; the White House solutions being offered are not helping (oil prices went up despite the US saying it will sell some of its strategic reserves); and whatever Powell does from here is going to end very, very badly. Given he and Brainard both zeroed in on inflation in their thankyou speeches, perhaps sooner than markets think: US 2-and 10-year yields both jumped 8bp on the day.

Allow me to expound a little beyond saying ‘Higher yields, higher dollar’. A few weeks ago I mentioned the 1978 essay “The Power of the Powerless” by then dissident and future Czech President Vaclav Havel. It begins mockingly that “A SPECTRE is haunting Eastern Europe: the spectre of what in the West is called ‘dissent.’ This spectre has not appeared out of thin air. It is a natural and inevitable consequence of the present historical phase of the system it is haunting.” Well, today the West has polarisation, mass protests, riots, talk of obligatory vaccinations in Europe, and Yanis Varoufakis arguing capitalism is *already* dead and techno-feudalism looms.

Havel also argues ideology disengages itself from reality without private power to keep it in check. Consider the army of economists who sung the praises of ‘no banks or money’ models and the Fed in the pre-GFC Ponzi scheme; then the socialism-for-the-rich of Fed QE; and who now purr the Fed is fighting inequality(!) Professionally-corralled academics, analysts, and central bankers all believing what they are doing works and is good – as dissent soars around them.

Private markets exist to allow price discovery in order to tell the Emperor his clothes are worth less than he thinks, or the blue-collar worker their labor is worth more. They protect us from the follies of ideologyBut central banks now ensure stock and bond prices have little relation to ‘truth’. You don’t need to make profits to see stocks rise – you don’t need to produce anything in fact; and functionally bankrupt governments have the lowest borrowing costs in their historyThe financial economy and the real economy are divorced. And when the former wobbles, it gets bailed out by those fighting for social justice. Every. Single. Time.

Yet “transitory” inflation shows us an Emperor who wears no clothes. Yes, it is still on the supply, not demand side, but there is no clear indication how long the supply side will remain a problem – and the longer it is, the greater the likelihood something structural shifts. A recent survey shows 58% of food industry C-suite leaders believe the crisis will last more than a year, and 33% fear three years – is that “transitory?” Wheat prices are at Arab Spring levels again already.

As I keep repeating, supply chains are a reality check to central bank –and central government– power. The Fed can create as much liquidity as they want via QE. We already know they cannot make it flow anywhere productive, just into socially destabilising asset and commodity prices. Even if they join hands with governments via fiscal policy, they still cannot do any good if there are no products to buy. If that weren’t the case, any frontier market with zero resources could tell its central bank to print $10 trillion Thingies and import everything needed to leap up the development ladder. Why doesn’t this happen?

A different way to present the same issue, as @ektrit notes, is that while Milton Friedman argued “Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon,” what is actually true is that “Inflation is always and everywhere a goods phenomenon”. If you produce enough to match money supply growth, fine. It’s like Wittgenstein’s logic that if you use a ruler to measure a table, you may also be using the table to measure the ruler. Central bank reality-defying ideology looks at the money side of things and assumes goods just flow: now they don’tOr only some have the power to say if/when/where they do. Some rulers get that –the mercantilist net exporters– and some others are now trying to turn the tables – the net importers saying “resilience,” and “trade is about values, not price.” Or “Peppa Pig World,” for some strange reason.

To reiterate, central banks, led by the Fed, are being slapped in the face by a reality they can no longer deny – but this also exposes that their ideological omnipotence, which is true for financial assets, means nothing for physical goods: they have no power there, because they have spent decades letting capital flow into assets and not productive investment! As such, if they raise rates, we know where that leads a financialized, indebted economy driven by crypto/NFT/property and stock bubbles, and where it leaves EM FX and external debt (and EUR?) vs. the US Dollar. Yet if they don’t raise rates, while proclaiming to be ‘The Powell of the Powerless’, then they, and some rulers, should start getting nervous. Expect higher prices, and louder dissent.

Meanwhile, the Fed may soon have other issues to grapple with. CNN reports the US is considering sending extra weaponry to Ukraine as fears mount over potential Russian invasion; and Russia is accusing the West of building up forces near its borders, which it has long stressed is a casus belli. One can see how this can easily go wrong: and by arming Ukraine, but with nowhere near enough to stop a determined Russian invasion(?), the West can be seen as incentivizing such action. Pray tell, what is the correct monetary-policy response if the worst happens, and energy and food prices soar further, while the US finds itself dragged into an expensive conflict? While Europe of course won’t fight in its own backyard (the very thought of it!), one hopes they have enough thick jumpers and blankets to get through a winter with no Russian gas while locked down.

Don’t worry: the ECB will keep you warm.

end

7. OIL ISSUES

This will further heighten problems in Europe with respect to natural gas.  Moldova has not paid its bills and thus Gazprom will halt gas flow to Moldova.  That will caught off supply to Europe as Moldova is a conduit

(zerohedge)

Gazprom Will Halt Gas Flows To Moldova In 48 Hours Over Non-Payment

 
TUESDAY, NOV 23, 2021 – 05:45 AM

European natural gas prices could surge as new reports indicate Gazprom will halt all natural gas flows to Moldova, an Eastern European country, in 48 hours over non-payment for its gas consumption. The news follows Germany’s energy regulator, which suspended the approval process for the Nord Stream 2 pipeline last week. Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to exert pressure on Europe with declining gas flows amid the onset of the Northern Hemisphere winter. 

The crux of the issue is that Moldova has yet to pay its energy bill to Gazprom. Today is the scheduled date of payment. Yet, there is no payment,”Sergey Kupriyanov, Gazprom board chairman’s spokesman, said in a statement, according to RT News. He said the company is extremely disappointed” in Moldova’s failure to fulfill its obligations on its recently extended energy contract. 

Gazprom was expecting payment for Moldova’s gas usage on Monday (Nov. 22). This comes after Chisinau, the capital of Moldova, struck a 5-year deal with the gas producer on Nov. 1. 

Kupriyanov said Gazprom attempted to set “market gas price” for Moldova but had to then take into account the “difficult economic and financial situation” in the country and Putin’s position. In the deal, he said most of Chisinau’s terms were reached, including a special discounted price. 

Moldova was only to pay for its current consumption, the spokesman said, adding that Chisinau is in breach of contract, forcing Gazprom to suspend gas flows. The contract extension comes as Chisinau has mounting unpaid gas bills with Gazprom. 

According to RT, before the Nov. 1 deal was signed, “Chisinau was close to introducing a state of emergency in case of failed talks. The tense situation also sparked some allegations that Moscow sought to exert pressure on Chisinau to break up its deal with the EU. Gazprom repeatedly denied such claims, arguing that it simply can’t afford to make a loss on the deal.” 

Moldova not paying its bills comes as Germany’s energy regulator unexpectedly suspended a crucial step in the approval process for the Nord Stream 2 pipeline last week. Dutch month-ahead gas, the European benchmark, soared last week on the news as that Nord Stream 2 pipeline might not get approved by the expected January timeframe but more likely after the cold season. 

The scarcity of gas in Europe continues to place a bid under prices as it deals with some of the lowest gas storage levels since 2013, ahead of what could be a nasty winter. As much as European officials oppose Russian gas, the continent desperately needs Gazprom to survive this winter. As for Moldova, if gas is shut off in the next 48 hours, the country might declare a state of emergency. 

END

USA announces a coordinated global oil release of up to 50 million barrels.

(zerohedge)

US Announces Coordinated, Global Oil Release Of Up To 50 Million Barrels, As Expected

 
TUESDAY, NOV 23, 2021 – 07:24 AM

As was widely leaked yesterday, moments ago the White House announced that it will release 50 million barrels of crude from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve in concert with China, Japan, India and South Korea, the White House said in a statement, an unprecedented, coordinated attempt by three of the world’s largest oil consumers to tame prices that could prompt a backlash by OPEC+.

The release, which as we noted will come in the form of an SPR Volume Exchange meaning “in the years ahead” the SPR will have to replenish the release almost certainly at much higher prices, will amount to 32 million barrels, and is in line with expectations of 30-35 million; as a reminder, 18 million has already been authorized by Congress and will be sped up.

The news of a coordinated release comes just hours after Bloomberg reported that India plans to sell about 5 million barrels of oil from its strategic petroleum stockpiles as part of a coordinated move with the U.S. and other allies to pressure prices. India’s crude will be sold to refiners including those operated by Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd. and Hindustan Petroleum Corp., which sent their stock price higher due to the implied arb. While the volume is the equivalent of less than half of India’s daily crude consumption, the release is symbolic as it shows oil consumers are willing to band together against OPEC’s rein over markets.

Here is the full White House Release:

President Biden Announces Release from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve As Part of Ongoing Efforts to Lower Prices and Address Lack of Supply Around the World

Announcement is in parallel with other major energy consuming nations, including China, India, Japan, Republic of Korea, and the United Kingdom

Over the last 18 months, the COVID-19 pandemic forced an unprecedented global economic shutdown. As the world is re-opening from a near economic standstill, countries across the globe are grappling with the challenges that arise as consumer demand for goods outpaces supply. But here in the United States, the economic recovery is stronger and faster than anywhere else in the world – according to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, the US is the only one of the major economies to have returned to pre-pandemic gross domestic product levels – in large part due to President Biden’s American Rescue Plan, which funded and facilitated a nationwide vaccination program, provided resources to schools and small businesses to keep them open in the face of COVID waves and put money in the pockets of those hit hardest by the pandemic. As a result of the strong recovery in the United States, Americans have nearly $100 more per month in disposable income in their pockets this year, even as COVID has continued to complicate the economic recovery around the world.

Even so, American consumers are feeling the impact of elevated gas prices at the pump and in their home heating bills, and American businesses are, too, because oil supply has not kept up with demand as the global economy emerges from the pandemic. That’s why President Biden is using every tool available to him to work to lower prices and address the lack of supply.

Today, the President is announcing that the Department of Energy will make available releases of 50 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to lower prices for Americans and address the mismatch between demand exiting the pandemic and supply.

The President has been working with countries across the world to address the lack of supply as the world exits the pandemic. And, as a result of President Biden’s leadership and our diplomatic efforts, this release will be taken in parallel with other major energy consuming nations including China, India, Japan, Republic of Korea and the United Kingdom. This culminates weeks of consultations with countries around the world, and we are already seeing the effect of this work on oil prices. Over the last several weeks as reports of this work became public, oil prices are down nearly 10 percent.

The U.S. Department of Energy will make available releases of 50 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in two ways:

  • 32 million barrels will be an exchange over the next several months, releasing oil that will eventually return to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in the years ahead. The exchange is a tool matched to today’s specific economic environment, where markets expect future oil prices to be lower than they are today, and helps provide relief to Americans immediately and bridge to that period of expected lower oil prices. The exchange also automatically provides for re-stocking of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve over time to meet future needs.
  • 18 million barrels will be an acceleration into the next several months of a sale of oil that Congress had previously authorized.

The President stands ready to take additional action, if needed, and is prepared to use his full authorities working in coordination with the rest of the world to maintain adequate supply as we exit the pandemic.

Even as the President is helping to lead the world in addressing oil supply imbalances, he is also focused on how consolidation in the oil and gas sector may be resulting in anti-competitive practices that keep American consumers from benefitting when oil prices fall. There is mounting evidence that declines in oil prices are not translating into lower prices at the pump. Last week, the President asked the Federal Trade Commission to examine what is going on in oil and gas markets and to consider “whether illegal conduct is costing families at the pump.”

Today’s announcement reflects the President’s commitment to do everything in his power to bring down costs for the American people and continue our strong economic recovery. At the same time, the Administration remains committed to the President’s ambitious clean energy goals, as reflected in the historic Bipartisan Infrastructure Law signed last week and the House-passed Build Back Better Act that together represent the largest investment in combatting climate change in American history and is a critical step towards reaching a net-zero emissions economy by 2050 and reducing our dependence on foreign fossil fuels.

The irony here is that Joe is indeed doing “everything in his power to bring down costs”, and yet while oil prices may dip for a few minutes after the news, it’s all uphill from there as Biden is now out of price-cut catalysts, and the runway to $100+ oil in 2022 is now clear.

As Bloomberg notes, the decision to collectively discharge stockpiled crude after OPEC+ countries rebuffed calls to significantly boost production marks a diplomatic win for the U.S. and a challenge to the grip that Saudi Arabia, Russia and other OPEC+ producers have on the market. The question now is whether OPEC+, which will see the release as a direct assault on its tactics, will now reverse on its previous plan of gradually boosting output, especially since the price of oil is sliding on the news, if not for much longer.

In response to the news which was fully priced in (according to Goldman), oil dipped modestly with WTI and Brent Jan’22 futures kneejerking reaction lower, but the move was almost immediately pared. At last check, WTI traded around $75.30/bbl and Brent was at $79.11.

The bigger problem for Biden is that all available price-cut catalysts have now been used, and the only way is up.

END

The supply of 50 million barrels is nothing but a rounding error as the world uses 20 million barrels per day.  Thus the 50 million barrels equates to 2 and 1/2 days of oil

(zerohedge)

“Rounding Error” – Oil Prices Surge As Biden SPR Release Backfires

 
TUESDAY, NOV 23, 2021 – 08:17 AM

The much anticipated – and much poo-poo’d – release from global reserves (of 50 million barrels) was announced this morning as the Biden administration desperately tries to stop the freefall in its approval ratings.

So they “did something” – but it’s not working.

As @GreeKFire32 notes so succinctly: “this accomplishes nothing… we consume 20 million barrels a day!”

So, it should not be any surprise that while the kneejerk reaction was a brief jolt lower, prices are now notably higher post-SPR headlines…

Is this peak policy panic?

Kyle Bass explains that higher prices are coming and “it’s this kind of childish thinking that will compromise US National Security and harm the poor and underserved.”

Bass adds:

But it’s this kind of childish thinking that will compromise US National Security and harm the poor and underserved.

A coordinated SPR release is a quick shot of morphine for a major infection.

It fixes nothing and is evidence of a panic 😱 in DC.

Prepare for $100 now…

If anyone took the time to review US SPR data, the administration has been selling many millions of barrels each month for the last 90 days.

And for context, the globe consumes 100 million PER DAY.

A coordinated release of 50 million is nothing at all. Rounding error.

#panic

Who could have seen this coming? Well, us and Goldman for one: “A Biden SPR Release Is Now Fully Priced In And Will Send Oil Price Even Higher In 2022.”

Finally, we note that gas prices at the pump are already likely to dip in the short-term as the supply chain lag from crude to wholesale to retail…

We can only imagine the back-patting and self-aggrandizement that this drop in gas prices will prompt (just don’t be too quick to gloat).

end

8 EMERGING MARKET& AUSTRALIA ISSUES

Australia////  NEW ZEALAND//COVID/VACCINES/LOCKDOWNS

AUSTRALIA

end

AUSTRALIA  

 

 
 
end

Euro/USA 1.1244 UP .00003 /EUROPE BOURSES //ALL RED

 

USA/ YEN 115.01  UP  0.221 /NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.3326  DOWN   0.0041 

 

USA/CAN 1.2725  UP 0.0023  (  CDN DOLLAR  DOWN 23 BASIS PTS )

 

Early TUESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro IS DOWN by 2 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1244

Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 7.01 PTS OR 0.20%

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 249.76 PTS OR  1.20% 

 

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.69% // EUROPEAN BOURSES OPENED ALL RED

 

Trading from Europe and ASIA

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG  CLOSED DOWN 299.76 PTS OR  1.20%

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 7.01  PTS OR 0.20%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP  0.69%

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1797.10

silver:$23.84-

Early TUESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yr: 1.653% !!! UP 12 IN POINTS from MONDAY night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

The 30 yr bond yield 1.9999 UP 9  IN BASIS POINTS from MONDAY night.

USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 96,53  DOWN 2  CENT(S) from MONDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers TUESDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now your closing  TUESDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.44%  UP 9  in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.074% DOWN 0/10   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.50%// UP 9  in basis points yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:  1.05  UP11    points in basis points yield from yesterday./

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 55 points higher than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES TO –..214% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.26% AND NOW ABOVE   THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR TUESDAY

Closing currency crosses for TUESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1267  UP .0025    or 25 basis points

USA/Japan: 114.99  UP .206 OR YEN DOWN 21  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3380 DOWN .0017// DOWN  17   BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 11 basis points to 1.2714

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The USA/Yuan,  CNY: closed    ON SHORE  (CLOSED DOWN)..6.3919  

 

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)..6.3916

TURKISH LIRA:  12.83  EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.074%

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 12 IN basis points from MONDAY at 1.658 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.011  UP 10 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 96.41 DOWN14   CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for TUESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 11.83 PTS OR 0.15% 

 

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 178.69 PTS OR 1.11% 

 

Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN  60.38 PTS OR  0.85% 

 

Spain IBEX CLOSED  UP 7.40  PTS OR 0.08%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 443.47 PTS OR 1.62% 

 

WTI Oil price; 78,28 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 82,20 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE RISES:    74,83  THE CROSS LOWER BY 0.16 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE HIGHER BY 16 BASIS PTS)

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES  TO –.214 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM : 78,78

BRENT :  82.50

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 1.680.   UP 14  basis points…

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.042 UP 8  basis points..

EURO/USA 1.1249 UP 0.0007   ( 7 BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:115.16 UP  0.374 ( YEN DOWN 37 BASIS POINTS/..

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 96.48 DOWN 7  cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA: 1.3380 DOWN .0017  

the Turkish lira close: 12.82  DOWN 142 BASIS PTS//HUGE LOSS

the Russian rouble 74.38  UP 0.60  Roubles against the uSA dollar. (UP 60 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.2672 UP 22 BASIS pts

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.219%

The Dow closed UP 194,55 POINTS OR 0.55%

NASDAQ closed DOWN 79.62 POINTS OR 0.50%

VOLATILITY INDEX:  19.36 CLOSE UP  0.19

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 0.1690

 

%//libor dropping like a stone

USA trading day in Graph Form

Stocks Ramped To A Green Close As Oil Soars While Surging Yields Hammer Techs

 
TUESDAY, NOV 23, 2021 – 04:03 PM

With gamma unclenched after Friday’s major OpEx, as some $2.4 trillion in gamma expired allowing the S&P to trade away from the massive 4,700 gamma gravity, Tuesday saw more of the same pain for Nasdaq as tech stocks were slammed…

… while the S&P managed to ramp into the green thanks to a last 30 minute ramp driven by energy and other value sectors …

… with the Dow closing near session highs propelled by “old school” sectors such as energy, banks and homebuilders, while tech and small caps got hit for another day.

The opening ramp, momo ignition failed for stonks for the second day in a row…

… driven by a continued ramp in real yields, which in turn has hammered high duration-exposed names, while breakevens continue to sink…

… despite today’s surge in oil which soared as soon as Biden announced a global coordinated SPR which the market has laughed at all day…

…knocking on to many different asset-classes…

Growth Stocks notably underperformed value once again…

One sector that was hit hard was EV makers: Tesla led electric-vehicle stocks lower, falling as much as 8.1% after climbing for five straight days when it gained 14% in the previous five trading sessions.  Other EV stocks also fell, with Nikola down 6.9%, Lordstown Motors -4.2%, ElectraMeccanica -4.1%, Workhorse Group -2% and Rivian -1.6%.

Interestingly, the Nasdaq-Small Caps (Growth/Value) pair has seen a notable regime shift in the last few days relative to real yields…

And also Value/Momentum has soared relative to the tight relationship it has had with the TSY yield curve…

Even though STIRs shifted very modestly dovishly today, the market is still pricing a 55% chance for a May 2022 rate-hike and a 95% chance for a June 2022 rate-hike. As a reminder, the odds of the Fed hiking in a mid-term year – no matter how high inflation is or isn’t – are virtually nil, and Powell will not do anything to jeopardize his MMT JV partner at the Treasury – Janet Yellen – even if it means coming up with new inflation definitions.

Treasury yields were mixed today with the short-end outperforming (2Y -2.5bps, 30Y +5bps)…

… as 10Y yields

30Y Yields pushed back above 2% today…

The dollar continued its recent rise, pushing up towards the 9/25/20 recent peak…

Cryptos bounced back from yesterday’s ugliness, pushing bitcoin back above $57k…

Ethereum rallied back above $4300 today, as the much-watched 2Y2Y inflation swap rate corrected some of its exuberance…

Gold dropped back below $1800 today…

Finally, the Biden administration was thoroughly embarrassed today after crude prices soared following the much-heralded release from the SPR…

Source: Bloomberg

And most notably, his actions today, sending prices for crude higher, will negate the impact of the drop in crude and wholesale gasoline prices that would bring pump prices lower. Simply put, the president is lying when he talks about retailers gouging – and given his lack of actual business experience, seems to have no idea how the supply chain from crude to gasoline works…

Oh, and remember “this is not, I repeat not, due to our environmental policies.”

END

i)  MORNING TRADING//

end

EARLY AFTERNOOON

 

ii)  USA///DEBT

 

USA DATA

end
 

iii) a  IMPORTANT USA/CONTAINER LOGJAMS//shortages//inflation

b) USA COVID/VACCINE UPDATES//VACCINE MANDATES

Biden goes to the 6th Court of Appeals Court to reinstate OSHA

(zerohedge)

iii) important USA economic stories

Texas AG accuses Bird Brain Biden of creating the border crisis as a large migrant caravan approaches 

(Athrappuly/EpochTimes)

Texas AG Accuses Biden Admin Of Creating Border Crisis As Large Migrant Caravan Approaches

 
MONDAY, NOV 22, 2021 – 07:40 PM

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times,

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton has accused the Biden administration of not following federal laws and “inviting” illegal migrants by changing policies meant to discourage them from entering the country.

Paxton’s comments come as a migrant caravan with almost 3,000 Haitians and Central Americans reportedly departed Tapachula, Mexico late last week and were heading towards the southern border, according to Mexican news reports and social media.

Speaking to Fox News Live, Paxton described the situation as “deja-vu.”

“The Biden administration is not doing what they need to do to stop this. As a matter of fact, they’re inviting it,” he said.

 “The border patrol is frustrated with having to deal with logistics and handling these families.”

Paxton said border agents are risking their lives but “are not encouraged to do their jobs … or protect the border. They’re not allowed to have the resources that they need.”

Led by Center for Human Dignity leader Luis Garcia Villagran, the migrant caravan plans to join up with former Arizona activist Irineo Mujica in Veracruz and other migrants before entering the United States.

According to Customs and Border Protection (CBP) statistics, there have almost been 1.6 million illegal aliens apprehended during the fiscal year 2021. When migrants stopped at the border are included, the number comes to 2 million.

“It’s clear to me that the Biden administration does not want to stop this,” Paxton said.

“They have changed all the policies that stopped this,” referring to Trump’s “Remain in Mexico” program.

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton at a press conference in Anzalduas Park near McAllen, Texas, on April 28, 2021. (Charlotte Cuthbertson/The Epoch Times)

In January, President Joe Biden paused deportations, stopped border wall construction, halted the Remain in Mexico program, repurposed Immigration and Customs Enforcement priorities, and reversed the ban on travel from terror-prone countries.

Paxton said that his office had to sue the Biden administration seven times and that they had won, but the administration still hasn’t implemented the program for migrants to stay back in Mexico.

Regarding whether it was fair to condemn the administration for drug dealers and criminals being part of the people coming in, Paxton said, “They know these cartels are gaining strength … They charge for almost everybody that crosses the border. You’re not getting across without paying the cartels … an average of $8,000,” according to estimates from Border Patrol.

“The Biden administration knows this. They’re aiding and abetting the cartels for not only the transportation of drugs but also the transportation of human beings.”

Paxton reiterated that if the administration just enforces laws passed by Congress, restricts migrants to Mexico, and deports criminals, there could be an immigration policy that works.

U.S. residents living near the border have to bear the brunt of the issue while Americans elsewhere are currently not impacted, Paxton said. “They’re not going to be affected like the people on the border whose property is being damaged, who are scared to go out at night or sometime even in the day,” because they don’t know who’s crossing their properties, he said.

“This is going to affect the entire nation because these people are moved around secretly, overnight on planes and buses … Some have COVID, some are drug-runners, potentially criminals, they could be terrorists. We don’t know … We aren’t able to keep track of them,” he said.

The White House has dodged difficult questions relating to the border and has refused to call it a “crisis,” instead saying it’s focusing on the “root causes” of illegal immigration and that it’s seeking a “fair, orderly, and humane” immigration system.

Last month, when asked by CNN whether he plans to visit the border, Biden said, “I guess I should go down. But the—but the whole point of it is: I haven’t had a whole hell of a lot of time to get down.”

Biden met with Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador on Thursday to discuss a range of issues of which one was migration.

END

They haven’t passed the last $1.75 trillion package at the Senate and now Goldman Sachs states that they will need another fiscal pkg next year

(zerohedge)

Goldman: Another Fiscal Package Next Year Appears Likely

 
 
MONDAY, NOV 22, 2021 – 08:40 PM

Commenting on Friday’s passage of Biden’s BBB bill, Goldman’s Alec Phillips writes that the Biden fiscal agenda took two steps forward over the last week, as the President signed the “hard” infrastructure bill into law and the House passed its version of the “Build Back Better” (BBB) legislation. That said, those were arguably the easier parts of the legislative process and the hard part now begins, and according to Goldman, “Democratic leaders are likely to face a more difficult task in getting the BBB legislation through the Senate, and changes there look likely.”

For one, Senate rules look likely to preclude some policies in the House bill. Some policies in the House-passed legislation are likely to violate Senate rules regarding what may be included in reconciliation legislation. Immigration policy changes, in particular, are likely run afoul of the “Byrd Rule” in the Senate, which prohibits provisions whose fiscal effect is “incidental to” the primary purpose of the provision. If these provisions are removed in the Senate, as seems likely, this would reduce net spending in the bill by around $115bn over 10 years.

The political realities in the Senate are likely to lead to other changes. As Phillips explains, there are several items in this category, and there will probably be additional issues that arise over the next few weeks as the Senate debates the bill. Among the new benefits the bill provides, the most obvious areas where one or more Senate Democrats might object include:

  • Paid leave. After negotiations with centrist Democrats in the Senate, the White House omitted from its framework its prior proposal to provide a new federal benefit for paid leave. However, the House added the program back into its version, raising the cost of the bill by around $200bn. Sen. Manchin (D-W. Va) has indicated that he opposes a benefit program like the House proposes, and the Senate will likely scale back paid-leave benefits or remove them entirely from the bill.
  • Infrastructure and climate spending. The House-passed BBB legislation has around $28bn in “hard” infrastructure spending and tens of billions in funding for electric vehicles, on top of the amounts in the recently enacted infrastructure bill. There will be likely be some centrist Democratic opposition to including provisions that were supposed to have been dealt with only in the earlier infrastructure bill.
  • State and Local Taxes (SALT). The House-passed bill would allow taxpayers to deduct $80k in state and local taxes, up from $10k today, a tax holiday for the rich. The Senate looks likely to change the provision, potentially by fully reinstating the deduction for individuals with income under $400k or $500k and leaving the $10k cap in place for those with higher incomes. At this point, something along the lines of the potential Senate policy looks like the most likely outcome, though some combination of the two ideas also seems possible.

The chart below shows Goldman’s comparison of fiscal proposals with new estimates of the House-passed legislation

Goldman then argues that how the legislation offsets the cost of new spending could also change. Some revisions to the policies Democrats would use to pay for the legislation also seem likely, though it is less clear how these might change. Among the possibilities are:

  • Minimum tax on book income. The House-passed legislation includes a 15% minimum tax on book income, which President Biden proposed earlier in the year but had been put aside until recently. Taxing companies based on their financial statement income would represent a major step away from the current system that relies only on tax returns, and it could face some resistance in the Senate. While some version of this tax will likely make it into the final version of the bill, there is a greater chance that it will be changed or removed from the bill in the Senate than most of the other corporate tax increases. If the Senate did opt to drop the minimum tax proposal, it could reopen the debate on a modest corporate tax rate increase, though this does not appear very likely at the moment.
  • Surtax on upper incomes. The House proposal to impose a 5% surtax income over $10mn and another 3% on income over $25mn (for a total of 8%) will likely also change in the Senate, though it looks very likely that something similar will be in the final package. It is conceivable that another smaller surtax could be applied at a lower level of income in order to offset a broader SALT deduction, for example.
  • Drug pricing. Further changes to the Medicare drug pricing changes in the Senate are possible, as the affected industries are likely to continue to seek modifications in the 50-50 Senate. Again, the final bill is expected to follow the general contours of the House bill in this area, but incremental changes seem possible.

A major complaint many have lodged against Biden’s BBB is that it uses a lot of timing gimmicks to reduce its true cost.

To wit, with much of the bill spending likely to be front-loaded, some centrist Democrats will likely oppose the extent to which the House bill front-loads new spending, primarily by setting some policies to expire after 1 year (e.g. expanded child tax credit and earned income tax credit extension), 3 years (e.g. health insurance subsidies), or 6 years (e.g. child care and pre-kindergarten benefits). As shown in Exhibits 4, 5, and 6, the spending in the House bill is indeed more front-loaded than the tax increases and other means of offsetting the cost, which are slightly back-loaded over the 2022-2031 period.

 

The Senate version of the bill will likely be a “little less” front-loaded than the House version.  Sen. Manchin has described some of the strategies the House bill uses as “shell games and gimmicks” and is expected push to reduce them in the Senate. That said, even if there are changes along these lines, expect only a modest effect on spending over the next few years. Some of the policies that the Senate might drop from the bill, like paid leave and immigration changes, have little impact over the next couple of years but removing them would make room to extend other policies for longer than they last under the House bill.

Goldman also argues that it could be tough for lawmakers to set a hard limit on the top line amount of spending in the bill. Specifically, Sen. Manchin along with Sen. Sinema (D-Ariz.) have also suggested that new spending in the bill should be kept below a certain level—somewhere between $1.5 trillion and $1.75 trillion. However, the “size” of the bill is somewhat subjective. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimate shows $1.64 trillion in new spending, similar to the range that centrist Democrats in the Senate have implied they might support. But that spending number omits more than $200bn in climate-oriented tax credits and nets $260bn in drug pricing changes (i.e., spending reductions) against the new spending. Taking those items into account, the new spending and tax benefits in the House-passed bill totals slightly more than $2 trillion over 10 years.

If the Senate removes the House provisions on paid leave and immigration, the adjusted total would drop to around $1.75 trillion/10 years. Since the Senate might redirect some of these funds to other purposes, Goldman estimates that a total of $1.75 to $2 trillion over 10 years seems likely. Of course, the official CBO estimate of spending will probably be at least a few hundred billion below the actual amount of new spending and tax benefits because that’s what the CBO does.

Another touchy topic is that the White House has made assurances that the legislation will not add to the deficit, but that is also subject to interpretation. CBO estimates the House-passed bill would raise the deficit by $367bn over 10 years, but this omits $207bn in increased revenues from increased funding for tax enforcement, suggesting that the bill would raise the deficit by only $160bn over 10 years (less than 0.1% of GDP over that period). The White House contends that tax enforcement would raise revenues by $400bn or more, which would mean that the bill would actually reduce the deficit slightly over ten years if true.

Then there is the issue of bill passage and timing, and here a big wildcard is the debt ceiling, which will have to be addressed some time in late December. According to Goldman, the debt limit could delay Senate action on the BBB bill, or accelerate it, depending on how Democrats choose to address it. The two parties have taken the same positions ahead of the next debt limit deadline as they did ahead of the last one—Democrats believe Republicans should support a debt limit increase under “regular order” while Republicans believe Democrats should raise it alone via the reconciliation process. While their positions are the same, comments from Democratic lawmakers suggest somewhat greater openness to addressing the issue via reconciliation than the last time around, and we think this is the more likely approach.

To use the reconciliation process, Democrats would need to first revise their budget resolution for fiscal year 2022, which already includes instructions for the BBB bill but does not instruct the relevant committees to raise the debt limit. Once Congress has revised the budget resolution, Democrats would then need to decide whether to pass a standalone debt limit increase or to combine it with the broader BBB bill. A standalone reconciliation bill could take several days to pass unless Republicans agree to an expedited process. Combining the debt limit with the BBB bill would be more efficient—it could even create a deadline for BBB passage in the Senate—but would have the disadvantage of directly linking the debt limit to the major fiscal legislation. At this point, separate bills seem more likely but either scenario is possible

One final point: as Phillips concludes, another fiscal package next year appears likely:  According to the Goldman strategist, “as the final version of the BBB takes shape, discussion of another fiscal package has already begun.” The one-year extension of the expanded child tax credit (CTC) and earned income tax credit (EITC), through 2022, is likely to lead congressional Democrats to prepare legislation to extend it further. Goldman thinks that it is more likely than not that Congress extends the expanded child tax credit past 2022, though there is clearly some risk that it expires at that point. Congressional Democrats might also try to pass legislation to address some of the policies that do not make it into the BBB legislation, like a federal paid leave benefit or Medicare expansion. And while it is hard to rule out another (much more modest) fiscal package next year, Goldman would be surprised “if Congress manages to do much more than extend expiring policies at that point.” We, on the other hand, would be surprised if Congress does not manage to pass another substantial fiscal package, especially if we see a “surge” in covid cases into the winter with Democrats claiming that hardships will require another round of stimmies. Not surprisingly, the pieces are all starting to fall into place, with this headline hitting late on Monday:

  • 7-DAY DAILY CASE COVID CASE AVERAGE ROSE 18% FROM WEEK EARLIER

This looming deflationary threat is also why anyone who really thinks the Fed will hike rates not once but twice in 2022 – an election year – may want to consider taking it easy on the booze and/or hard drugs.

end

iv) Swamp commentaries/

 
end
 

King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories./ of the day

Biden taps Jerome Powell for second term as Fed chair, spurning progressives
Powell has given no hint that higher inflation will prompt him or other Fed officials to raise interest rates from their rock-bottom level, steadfast in his stance that those developments are not a reason to accelerate the central bank’s plans. He has suggested the Fed will wait until the tapering of bond purchases concludes and until officials determine the labor market is fully recovered.
https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/biden-jerome-powell-second-federal-reserve-term

 

@ChadPergram: A) WH in Powell renomination: Lael Brainard – one of our country’s leading macroeconomists – has played a key leadership role at the Federal Reserve, working with Powell to help power our country’s robust economic recovery.  B) WH: Powell and Brainard share the Administration’s focus on ensuring that economic growth broadly benefits all workers.

ECB Is Serious on Ending Pandemic Bond-Buying, Villeroy Says    11:00 ET
The Bank of France chief’s reluctance to commit to more stimulus comes amid a bout of elevated inflation — but also as Europe’s economic outlook is clouded by a spike in Covid-19 infections that have triggered lockdowns in some countries…
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-22/ecb-is-serious-on-ending-pandemic-bond-buying-villeroy-says

 

U.S. Posed to Release Oil from Reserve along with Other Nations – BBG 11:42 ET
The move, likely in conjunction with India, Japan and South Korea, would be an unprecedented effort by major oil consumers to tame prices after OPEC+ countries rebuffed U.S. calls to significantly boost production. China said it’s working to release some oil from its strategic reserves, days after the U.S. invited it to participate in a joint sale… the U.S. is considering a release of more than 35 million barrels over time… https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-22/u-s-poised-to-release-oil-from-strategic-petroleum-reserve

WTI oil, which was up 1.22, declined 1.05 on the SPR announcement; but it recovered quickly.
Fed’s Powell, Brainard Stress U.S. Inflation Battle Is Priority
“We will use our tools both to support the economy and a strong labor market, and to prevent higher inflation from becoming entrenched.”… “I’m committed to putting working Americans at the center of my work at the Federal Reserve,” Brainard said in her remarks following Powell, adding “this means getting inflation down at a time when people are focused on their jobs and how far their paychecks will go.” (Blah, blah, blah, blah, blah!)  https://news.yahoo.com/fed-powell-brainard-stress-u-191448526.html

Of course, The Big Guy took no question; but the WH piped in elevator music when Biden exited to drown out reporters’ questions.  (Ala a SNL skit)  https://twitter.com/beingrealmac/status/1462858038411464710
Hawley Calls for Answers After JPMorgan Forces Missouri-Based Group to Cancel Event Featuring Donald Trump Jr.
https://www.hawley.senate.gov/hawley-calls-answers-after-jpmorgan-forces-missouri-based-group-cancel-event-featuring-donald-trump

RFK Jr.: Fauci and Bill Gates Should Be Criminally Prosecuted for Gross Negligence and Profiting Off COVID – Robert F. Kennedy Jr. said Big Pharma and the media have divided the political parties and created racial animus so nobody will notice they are making billions to “execute the controlled demolition of American constitutional democracy.”… https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2021/11/22/rfk_jr_fauci_and_bill_gates_should_be_criminally_prosecuted_for_gross_negligence_and_profiting_off_covid.html

@FollowingFX: Here is another 66-year-old man that offers health care advice to people. You choose who you want to listen to… (pic of a chubby Bill Gates) https://twitter.com/FollowingFX/status/1462825691037196290

Ex-U.S. intel operatives admit hacking American networks for UAE
The operatives – Marc Baier, Ryan Adams and Daniel Gericke – were part of a clandestine unit named Project Raven, first reported by Reuters, that helped the UAE spy on its enemies….
    As part of the deal with federal authorities to avoid prosecution, the three former intelligence officials agreed to pay a combined $1.69 million and never again seek a U.S. security clearance, a requirement for jobs that entail access to national security secrets… (No jail for this?!  Yet Jan. 6 trespassers get jail!)
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/american-hacker-mercenaries-face-us-charges-work-uae-2021-09-14/

 

Up to 40 Looters Target California Bay Area Stores for Third Straight Day
https://www.theepochtimes.com/up-to-40-looters-target-california-bay-area-stores-for-third-straight-day_4117681.html

Soros-Stooge Chesa Boudin Suddenly “Outraged” As Wave of Shoplifting Gangs Sweeps Bay Area
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/soros-stooge-chesa-boudin-suddenly-outraged-wave-shoplifting-gangs-sweeps-bay-area

Eric Adams blames ‘professional’ anarchists for Kyle Rittenhouse riots
(NYC) Mayor-elect Eric Adams blamed “professional” anarchists for the rioting and vandalism in New York City following Kyle Rittenhouse’s acquittal Friday — insisting these groups infiltrate cities to “create violence.”… https://trib.al/0WZ1NPo

@DanODonnellShow: Doctors confirm 18 children injured in the Waukesha Parade are being treated at Children’s Wisconsin… 6 are in critical condition, 1 is in serious condition, and 3 are in fair condition.

@JackPosobiec: According to the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, Darrell Brooks Jr was out on bail after he was charged with purposely running over a woman with his vehicle.  Are you paying attention yet? https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/crime/2021/11/22/suspect-waukesha-parade-incident-identified-darrell-brooks-jr/8717524002/

@TheQuartering: Suspect via MULTIPLE sources in killing several and injuring scores more in Waukesha Just released 2 days ago on bond as well. Darrell Edward Brooks Jr. A real winner.
https://twitter.com/TheQuartering/status/1462628463517609984/photo/2

GOP Rep. @mtgreenee: Our prayers are with the victims and families of the horrific attack in Waukesha, Wisconsin killing 5 innocent people and injuring more than 40.  I can’t comprehend why anyone would do such a thing. A man out on bail with a long criminal history & a registered sex offender…

@JackPosobiec: Soros DA of Milwaukee John Chisholm released Darrell E Brooks last week.  Are you paying attention yet?

GOP Sen. @TomCottonAR: Every single Soros prosecutor needs to be recalled, removed, and replaced.
Allowing violent, repeat criminals out of jail to harm again isn’t “reform”—it’s lawlessness. It’s dangerous.  The people enacting these reckless, pro-criminal policies should be held accountable for the damage they have done.

Ex-DNI @RichardGrenell: The mainstream media have failed to report the consequences of bail reform. Ignoring it ignites it.

@JackPosobiec: Last month a Republican was elected District Attorney on Long Island for the first time in 20 years. He specifically campaigned on opposing bail and parole reform.

Illinois Dem blasted for calling Wisconsin Christmas rampage ‘karma… for the acquittal of Kyle Rittenhouse… https://trib.al/1JqW9S1

Suspect in Waukesha Christmas parade attack charged with intentional homicide https://trib.al/NuhgHHk

At a short presser, the Waukesha Police said that there was no pursuit of Darrell Brooks before the attack on the Christmas parade and he acted alone…  https://twitter.com/CBSNews/status/1462871603621081092

Waukesha Christmas horror: Milwaukee DA announces internal review of Darrell Brooks bail recommendation  https://www.foxnews.com/us/waukesha-christmas-horror-milwaukee-darrell-brooks-bail-review

@seanmdav: People who waved a flag in the Capitol for five seconds are indefinitely locked in solitary in the D.C. gulag, and this guy–a violent career felon–was back out on the streets in a couple of days.

Here’s a story that we had not heard regarding a death on January 6:  The family of a woman killed on January 6th, allegedly by police, has been denied her full autopsy report by the DC Medical Examiner’s office and The Department of Justice.  The Government of the District of Columbia Metropolitan Police Department also denied the family of Rosanne Boyland the video footage they have showing her death after her father filed a Freedom of Information Act request to obtain it… Thanks to our investigative reporting, Rep. Louie Gohmert (R-TX) grilled attorney general Merrick Garland about Boyland’s death and the video we exposed that shows her being beaten and possibly killed by a DC Police Officer on Capitol Steps. Gohmert asked Attorney General Merrick Garland if a determination was ever made to the DC Metro Police Officer who struck Rosanne Boyland repeatedly in the head with a rod before she died. Garland then proceeded to lie to the nation in front of the House Judiciary Committee and say “he believed there was an investigation.” That is false. The Boyland family has since contacted the Department Justice and were told there was no such investigation.
    The Government and Mainstream Media smeared the woman and inaccurately reported that Boyland died of a drug overdose back in January. Since then we have uncovered shocking video and eyewitness testimony that proves Boyland more than likely died as a result of police brutality that day.
    We demanded an investigation into DC Metropolitan police officer Lila Morris, who was seen beating Boyland with devastating force as she lay unconscious on Capitol steps, as well as an investigation into the death of Boyland…
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2021/11/must-read-exclusive-family-rosanne-boyland-killed-january-6th-denied-full-autopsy-report-speak-first-time-plead-government-investigation-please-help-gri/

Thomas Jefferson statue removed from (NYC) City Hall after 187 years https://trib.al/zoPEw7h

 
end
 
 
 
Let us wrap up the week as always with this offering courtesy of Greg Hunter
 
 
Well that is all for today
 
 

I will see you WEDNESDAY night.

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