FEB 23

FEB23

 · by harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment ·Edit

GOLD;  $1907.90 UP $2.40

SILVER: $24.49 UP 22 CENTS

ACCESS MARKET: GOLD $1898.70

SILVER: $24.08

Bitcoin:  morning price: $38,975 UP 1101

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $37,656 DOWN 218

Platinum price: closing UP $14.35 to $1091.65

Palladium price; closing UP $101.50  at $2451.00

END

end

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comex notices//JPMorgan  notices filed//comex notices//JPMorgan  notices filed 76/261

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: FEBRUARY 2022 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,906.100000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 02/22/2022 DELIVERY DATE: 02/24/2022
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED

---

118 C MACQUARIE FUT 10
332 H STANDARD CHARTE 10
363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 28
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 11
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 94
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 5
661 C JP MORGAN 261 35
661 H JP MORGAN 41
732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 1
905 C ADM 26

---

TOTAL: 261 261
MONTH TO DATE: 18,221

---

---

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  FEB. CONTRACT: 261 NOTICE(S) FOR 26,100 OZ  (0.8118  TONNES)

total notices so far:  18,9221 contracts for 1,822,100 oz (56.674 tonnes)

SILVER NOTICES: 

150 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR  750,000   OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month  1985  :  for 9,925,000  oz

GLD

WITH GOLD UP $2.40

WITH RESPECT TO GLD WITHDRAWALS:  (OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS):

GOLD IS “RETURNED” TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHEN CALLING IN THEIR LEASES: THE GOLD NEVER LEAVES THE BANK OF ENGLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BANK IS PROTECTING ITSELF IN CASE OF COMMERCIAL FAILURE

ALSO INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (phys) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//

NO CHANGES AT THE GLD: 

CLOSING INVENTORY :1024.09 TONNES

Silver//SLV

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP 22 CENTS:/:

AT THE SLV//

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV

NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// 

CLOSING INVENTORY: 551.597 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE

SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A VERY STRONG 1030 CONTRACTS TO 163,745  AND RESTS CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND WITH  THIS STRONG GAIN IN OI, IT WAS ACCOMPANIED WITH OUR STRONG $0.30 GAIN  IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON TUESDAY.  OUR BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.30) AND WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OUT ANY SILVER LONGS  AS WE HAD A VERY STRONG GAIN OF 2122 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES .

WE  MUST HAVE HAD: 
I) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AS THEY ARE VERY ANXIOUS TO GET OUT OF DODGE!!/. II)WE ALSO HAD  SOME  REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//.   iii)  A  STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) A HUGE INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 4.110 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 999,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING 10.020 MILLION OZ.         V)    STRONG SIZED COMEX OI GAIN.

 I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: 

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI SILVER TODAY: CONTRACTS  -363

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS  FEB. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF FEB: 

TOTAL CONTACTS for 16 days, total  contracts: :  9556 contracts or 47.780 million oz  OR 2.986 MILLION OZ PER DAY. (5897CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL NO OF OZ UNDERGOING EFP TO LONDON 9556 CONTRACTS X 5,000 PER CONTRACT:

EQUATES TO: 47.780 MILLION OZ

.

LAST 10 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120 

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT:  94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ 

JAN 2022//  90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022:  47.780 MILLION OZ//

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO SILVER) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF MAR.WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF SILVER

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JAN HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB, FOR GOLD:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (MAR), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

RESULT: WE HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1393 WITH OUR STRONG  $0.30 GAIN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// TUESDAY  THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A  STRONG  SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF  729 CONTRACTS( 729 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR MAR AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS    THE DOMINANT FEATURE TODAY: /HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AS THEY GET OUT OF DODGE//// WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR FEB OF 4.1 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 999,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP  //NEW STANDING 10.020, MILLION OZ//  .. WE HAD A VERY STRONG  SIZED GAIN OF 1759 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES FOR 8.795 MILLION OZ//

 WE HAD 150 NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  750,000 OZ

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG 9260 TO 611.488 AND CLOSER TO  OUR NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: —704  CONTRACTS.

THE BIS HAS ABANDONED THE GOLD COMEX TRADING!!!

.

THE  STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI CAME WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $6.20//COMEX GOLD TRADING/TUESDAY/.AS IN SILVER WE MUST  HAD  HUGE BANKER/ALGO SHORT COVERING ACCOMPANYING OUR STRONG SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION  AS THE TOTAL GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES TOTALED  16,001 CONTRACTS…

WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR FEB AT 64.3 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 2400 OZ QUEUE. JUMP     //NEW STANDING: 58.973 TONNES      

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF ONLY  $6.20 WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 15,297  OI CONTRACTS (47.580 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED  6037 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 611,458.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A VERY STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 16,001, WITH 9964 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 6037 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 16,001 CONTRACTS OR 49.769TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A STRONG SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (6037) ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (9260,): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 15,297 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING ,2.) HUGE INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR FEB. AT 64.30 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS TODAY’S  4200 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING 58.973 TONNES//  3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION ,4)  STRONG SIZED COMEX OI. GAIN 5) STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2022 INCLUDING TODAY

FEB

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF FEB :

52,271 CONTRACTS OR 5,227,100 OR 162.58  TONNES 16 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 3266 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 16 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 162.58 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2020, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  162.58/3550 x 100% TONNES  4.54% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2022 

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

 FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN).. 

MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT:           141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV:           312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC.           145.12 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE// 

JAN:2022   247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB:           162.58 TONNES//INITIAL

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE. 

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, ROSE BY A VERY STRONG SIZED  1030 CONTRACTS TO 163,745  AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  4 1/2 YEARS AGO.  

EFP ISSUANCE 729 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

MAR 729  ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  729 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI GAIN OF 1030 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 729 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A VERY STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 1759 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACT FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 8.795 MILLION  OZ, 

OCCURRED WITH OUR  $0.30 GAIN IN PRICE.

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,

(Peter Schiff,

3. Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,

4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

5. Other gold commentaries

6. Commodity commentaries/cryptocurrencies

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

)WEDNESDAY MORNING// TUESDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 32.00 PTS OR 0.93%       //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 140.28 PTS OR 0.60%  /The Nikkei closed DOWN 461.26 or 1.71%       //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.70%  /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP 6.3279    /Oil DOWN TO 91.56 dollars per barrel for WTI and UP TO 96.65 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED  ALL GREEN       //  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.3179. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.3148: /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFF SHORE STRONGER/

A)NORTH KOREA//USA/OUTLINE

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

OUTLINE

3 C CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 9260 CONTRACTS  AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020). AND THIS STRONG   COMEX INCREASE OCCURRED WITH OUR GAIN OF $6.20 IN GOLD PRICING TUESDAY’S COMEX TRADING. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED EFP (6037 CONTRACTS). . THEY WERE PAID HANDSOMELY  NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AND SETTLE FOR CASH. 

WE NORMALLY HAVE WITNESSED  EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS. IT SEEMS THAT ARE BANKERS FRIENDS ARE EXERCISING EFP’S FROM LONDON AND NOW THEY ARE LOATHE TO ISSUE NEW ONES.

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW MOVING TO THE   ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 6037 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  ;: ,   & FEB. 0 APRIL: 6037 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  6037 CONTRACTS 

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION,  EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A VERY STRONG  16,001 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 6037 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A STRONG  COMEX OI GAIN OF 9260  CONTRACTS..

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR FEB   (58.973),

 HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV.  8.074 TONNES

OCT.    57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

FEB 2022: 58.973 TONNES

THE BANKERS WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT ROSE $6.20) AND  THEY WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING ANY LONGS AS WE HAVE  REGISTERED A STRONG GAIN OF 49.769 TONNES OF TOTAL OI, ACCOMPANYING OUR HUGE GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR FEB (58.973 TONNES)…

WE HAD  –704 CONTRACTS REMOVED FROM COMEX TRADES. THESE WERE REMOVED AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 15,297 CONTRACTS OR 1,529,700 OZ OR 47.580 TONNES

Estimated gold volume today: 150,861 ///POOR

Confirmed volume yesterday: 358,372 contracts  GOOD 

INITIAL STANDINGS FOR FEB ’22 COMEX GOLD //FEB 23

Gold	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz	nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz	32151.000 oz JPMorgan 1000 kilobars
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz	nilOZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz32	3215.100 oz 100 kilobars Manfra
No of oz served (contracts) today	261  notice(s) 26,100 OZ 0.8118 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)	739 contracts  73,900 oz 2.298 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month	18,221 notices 1,822,100 OZ 56.674 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month	xxx oz

For today:

one dealer deposit 

Into Manfra:  15,683.230 oz

No dealer withdrawal 0

1 customer deposit

i) Into Manfra: 3215.000 oz  (100 kilobars)

total deposit: 3215.000 oz

1 customer withdrawals

i) Out of JPMorgan: 32151.000 oz (1000 kilobars)

total withdrawals:  32151.000     oz  

ADJUSTMENTS:  0

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.

For the front month of FEBRUARY we have an oi of 1000 stand LOSING 408 contracts. 

We had 450 contracts served upon yesterday, so we GAINED 42 contracts or an additional 4,200 oz will  stand on this side of the pond looking for gold metal.

The month of March saw a GAIN OF 71 contracts and thus the OI standing is 4623.

April saw a GAIN of 15 contracts UP to 470,996.

June saw a gain of 7232 contracts up to 80,536 contracts

We had 261 notice(s) filed today for 26,100  oz FOR THE FEB 2022 CONTRACT MONTH. 

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 261 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 261  contract(s) of which 35  notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 41 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0  notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the FEB /2021. contract month, 

we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (18,221) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  (FEB: 1000 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today  261 x 100 oz per contract equals 1,896,000 OZ  OR 58.973 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this  active month of FEB. 

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the FEB contract month:

No of notices filed so far (18,221) x 100 oz+   (1000)  OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (261} x 100 oz} which equals 1,896,000 oz standing OR 58.973 TONNES in this  active delivery month of FEB.

We GAINE 42 contracts or an additional 4200 oz will   stand for gold over here

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING:  58.842 TONNES  (HUGE FOR A FEBRUARY DELIVERY MONTH)

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

157,392.690, oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC  4.89 TONNES

125,410.592 PLEDGED  MANFRA 2.90 TONNES

54,339.114oz PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1  1.690

278,349.354, oz  JPM No 2  8.65 TONNES

898,821.330 oz pledged  Brinks/27,96 TONNES

12,249,333 oz International Delaware:  0..3810 tonnes

Loomis: 18,615.429 oz

total pledged gold:  1,543,731.047 oz                                     48.01 tonnes

TOTAL REGISTERED AND ELIZ GOLD AT THE COMEX: 32,635,739,899  OZ (1015.07 TONNES)

TOTAL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 15,360,116.721 OZ (477.76 tonnes)

TOTAL OF ALL REGISTERED GOLD: 17,275,623.178 OZ  (537.33 tonnes)

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 15,731,892.0 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)  489.33 tonnes

END

FEBRUARY 2022 CONTRACT MONTH//SILVER

INITIAL STANDING FOR SILVER//FEB 23

Silver	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory	NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory	1,771,443.664  oz Brinks CNT
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory	nilOZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory	nil oz
No of oz served today (contracts)	150CONTRACT(S) 750,000  OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)	19 contracts  (95,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)	1985 contracts  9,925,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

And now for the wild silver comex results

we had 0 deposits into the dealer

total dealer deposits:  nil       oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

We have 0 deposits into the customer account

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 183.476 million oz/349.906 million =52.43% of comex 

ii) Comex withdrawals: 2

a)Out of CNT 1,326,375,054 oz

b) Out of Brinks:  445,068.000 oz

total withdrawal 1,771,553.666 oz

we had 1 adjustments//all dealer to customer account

i) JPMorgan  313,881.170 oz

the silver comex is in stress!

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 81.334 MILLION OZ

TOTAL REG + ELIG. 349.906 MILLION OZ

CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF FEB//2022 OI: 169 CONTRACTS LOSING 348 contracts on the day. We had  150 contracts served upon yesterday.

So we gained 198 contracts or an additional 990,000 oz will stand for silver on this side of the pond.

FOR MARCH WE HAD A LOSS OF 8318 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 39,458 CONTRACTS.

APRIL HAD A 88 GAIN// CONTRACTS RISING TO 389

MAY HAD A  GAIN OF 9208 CONTRACTS UP TO 101,892 contracts

 .

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 150 for 750,000 oz

Comex volumes: 89,325// est. volume today//strong/

Comex volume: confirmed TUESDAY: 143,018 contracts (STRONG)

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in FEB. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at  1985 x 5,000 oz =. 9,925,000 oz 

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of FEB (169) and the number of notices served upon today 150 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the  standings for silver for the FEB./2021 contract month: 1985 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of FEB (169)  – number of notices served upon today (150) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the FEB contract month equates 10,020,000 oz. .

We gained 198 CONTRACTS OR 990,000 ADDITIONAL oz of silver will stand at the comex.

the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS:

GLD

FEB 23/WITH GOLD UP $2.00 : NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1024.09 TONNES

FEB 22/WITH GOLD UP $6.20: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.65 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1024.09 TONNES

FEB 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.80: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1019.44 TONNES

FEB 17/WITH GOLD UP $29.50: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1019.44 TONNES

FEB 16/WITH GOLD UP 414.60 NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1019.44 TONNES

FEB 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.70 NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1019.44 TONNES

FEB 14/WITH GOLD UP $27.20 NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1019.44 TONNES

FEB 11/WITH GOLD UP $4.50 A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD IVNETORY AT THE GLD// A DEPOSIT OF 3.48 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1019.44 TONES

FEB 10/WITH GOLD UP $1.00: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1015.96 TONNES

FEB 9/WITH GOLD UP $8.05//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1015.96 TONNES

FEB 8/WITH GOLD UP $5.95 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.36 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1015.96 TONNES

FEB 7/WITH GOLD UP $14.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.24 TONNES FROM THE GLD/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1011.60 TONNES//

FEB 4/WITH GOLD UP $3.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.75 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1014.84 TONNES

FEB 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.55: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1016.59 TONNES

FEB 2/WITH GOLD UP $7.95//A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.78 TONES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1018.04 TONNES

FEB 1/WITH GOLD UP $5.40: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1014.26 TONNES

JAN 31/WITH GOLD UP $10.10//NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1014.26 TONNES

JAN 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.30//NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1014.26 TONNES

JAN 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $36.15//ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.16 TONNES INTO THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1014.26 TONNES

JAN 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $21.60 A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.65 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1013.10 TONNES

JAN 25/WITH GOLD UP $10.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1008.45 TONNES

JAN 24/WITH GOLD UP $10.10 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: AN UNBELIEVABLE DEPOSIT OF 27.59 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1008.45 TONNES

CLOSING INVENTORY FOR THE GLD//1024.09 TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

FEB 23/WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 551.597 MILLION OZ//

FEB 22/WITH SILVER UP 30 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 350,000 OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 551.597 MILLION OZ//

FEB 18/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.017 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 551.227 MILLION OZ

FEB 17/WITH SILVER UP 31 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.402 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 550.210 MILLION OZ/

FEB 16/WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 547.808 MILLIONOZ

FEB 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 46 CENTS TODAY : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 547.808 MILLION OZ//

FEB 14/WITH SILVER UP 49 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.235 MILLION OZ INTO THES LV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 547.808 MILLION OZ

FEB 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.573 MILLION OZ///

SLV/FEB 10/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.573 MILLION OZ//

FEB 9/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.573 MILLION OZ//

FEB 8/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.143 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.573 MILLION OZ//

FEB 7/WITH SILVER UP 52 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.218 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 541.430 MILLION OZ/

FEB 4/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 539.212 MILION OZ

FEB 3/WITH SILVER DOWN 35 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT539.212 MILLION OZ//

FEB 2/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 5.411 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 539.212 MILLION OZ/

FEB 1/WITH SILVER UP 18 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 533.801 MILLION OZ

JAN 31/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.202 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 533.801 MILLION OZ//

JAN 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 36 CENTS : NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 535.003 MILLION OZ//

JAN 27/WITH SILVER DOWN $1.13 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 535.003 MILLION OZ//

JAN 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 535.003 MILLION OZ//

JAN 25/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.311 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 535.003 MILLION OZ/

.JAN 24/WITH SILVER DOWN 48 CENTS TODAY: A MASSIVE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 4.8 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 532.692 MILLION OZ//.

SLV FINAL INVENTORY FOR TODAY: 551.597 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

1.PETER SCHIFF

Peter Schiff: The Fed Inflation Fight Will Cause A Recession… And More Inflation

WEDNESDAY, FEB 23, 2022 – 02:16 PM

Via SchiffGold.com,

The markets seem to be anticipating a Fed inflation fight. They also seem to be realizing that this is going to cause a recession. But they still haven’t come to grips with the fact that this is not going to fix the inflation problem. In his podcast, Peter Schiff argues that the recession will actually end up making inflation worse.

The stock market finished up last week with more selling as investors begin to price in more Federal Reserve rate hikes. Some analysts now expect as many as 10 hikes by the end of 2022. Peter said that is scaring the markets.

And in fact, if you look at the yield curve, the yield curve is actually flattening because investors are actually starting to price in the recession that this hawkish Fed is going to cause by jacking up interest rates.”

Peter said the 10-year Treasury yield is factoring in a drop in rates that will follow all of the hikes because they will cause a recession.

This has barely begun to set in on Wall Street. When more and more traders grasp this reality, there’s a lot more downside in stocks. But more importantly, if the Fed acts to stop the carnage on Wall Street, there is way more downside in the US dollar, way more upside in gold.”

But in the big scheme of things, 10 rate hikes are nothing. If each hike is 25 basis points, the interest rate will only be at 2.5% after 10.

Big deal. Inflation is 7.5%. And of course, it’s actually 15%.”

We don’t even have to use the real inflation rate to make the point. We can accept the government’s cooked CPI data. Even if the Fed raises rates to 2.5%, you’ve got -5% real interest rates. The reality is that a 2.5% interest rate in the face of 7.5% inflation is like taking a pea shooter to a bazooka fight. In order to truly tame inflation, the Federal Reserve needs to push interest rates above the level of inflation. Nobody is talking about rate hikes up to 7.5%.

You’re not going to fight inflation with 5% negative rates. There is no history that shows this. It’s impossible. It contradicts any type of economic school of thought you want to put forth.”

And even if the Fed manages to hike 10 times, the CPI will likely be even higher by the time rates get to 2.5%.

So, the Fed will actually be further behind the curve when it gets to 2.5% than it is right now at zero. It’s because moving so slowly allows inflation to accelerate. Because the entire time the Fed is hiking rates, it is still pursuing an expansionary monetary policy.”

St. Louis Fed president James Bullard even conceded this in an interview last week.

But while they are not sufficient to fight inflation, these rate hikes will probably push the US economy into a recession. The markets seem to be starting to grasp this reality. But they still think that the recession will do the job for the Fed and push inflation down.

In other words, the Fed won’t fight inflation with tight money, but simply making money less loose will be enough to tip the economy into recession, and the recession will fight inflation. Because the conventional wisdom is if we have a recession, that is going to reduce demand, and that is going to bring down the rate of inflation. So, that’s what the markets are counting on. It’s not the Fed that’s going to fight inflation. It’s going to be the recession.”

A lot of analysts are calling this a “policy mistake.” They’re worried that the Fed will “hike too much” and cause an economic downturn. But Peter said a recession wouldn’t be a mistake.

The recession is the cure for the mistake. The mistakes were made a long time ago. The Fed continues to make mistakes in raising rates too slowly, not because faster rate hikes will cause a recession, but because they’re trying to delay the recession because the recession is the cure. But the problem is the economy is so sick, we can’t survive the cure.”

We survived the cure in 1980 when Paul Volker pushed rates to 20%. And we had some relative prosperity on the back end. But we can’t do that now. There is too much debt in the system. The underlying economy is much weaker now than it was then.

I mean, we could, in theory, in the long run. But given the political realities that will intervene in the short run, there is no way it’s going to happen.”

So, what will happen when the economy tips into recession? Peter said inflation is going to get even worse — not better. That genie is already out of the bottle.

When the economy tips, inflation will still be high. And the Fed will do what it always does — it will pivot right back to extraordinary loose monetary policy. It will cut rates. It will resume quantitative easing.

When the Fed has to start taking back whatever rate hikes it managed to get in, when the Fed has to go back to QE, the bottom is going to drop out of the dollar.”

Also in this podcast, Peter goes on to talk about how the tanking dollar will constrict domestic supply, further exacerbating inflation. He also discusses Democrats trying to bribe Americans with a gas tax holiday, bitcoin, the situation in Ukraine, and the Cathie Wood ETF.

end

2.LAWRIE WILLIAM//,//Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, James  RICKARD

-END-

3.  Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

He is back!! Ambrose Evans Pritchard claims that Putin will not stop with his two puppet regions, but go after all of the Ukraine! Who will stop him. Europe desperately needs his gas as Russia cannot be strangled because it is systemically central to the world economy.

(Ambrose Pritchard Evans/London Telegraph)

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: Putin controls supply chain of Western tech, so who is bluffing?

Submitted by admin on Tue, 2022-02-22 11:52Section: Daily Dispatches

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
The Telegraph, London
Tuesday, February 22, 2022

The wishful thinking has begun. Core Europe is already persuading itself that Vladimir Putin will be sated with Donetsk and Luhansk, allowing European companies to keep selling Gucci bags and BMWs to Russia in exchange for commodities — after a stern lecture on international law, of course.

The US, UK, and Poland have reached the opposite conclusion, strongly suspecting that the military occupation of the Donbas is the springboard for a full invasion of Ukraine.

Bear in mind what Putin has lost by this action: he has killed the Minsk accord and therefore ended the possibility of controlling Kyiv’s foreign and security policy through the veto power of these two puppet regions.

If he left it there, he would emerge from this crisis in a weaker strategic position.

This stretches credulity, since two-thirds of the Russian army is coiled for a strike on the border, with little to stop them except Ukraine’s valiant but ill-armed reservists. …

It is already well understood that Europe is a captive of Russian gas, and dares not eject Russia from the SWIFT system of international payments because it would suffer a more immediate crisis than fortress Russia itself. …

Russia cannot be strangled because it is systemically central to the world economy. …

... For the remainder of the commentary:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/02/22/vladimir-putin-controls-supply-chain-western-technology-bluffing/

end

Craig Hemke on today’s big events concerning Russia, the Ukraine and the USA

(Craig Hemke/gata)

Craig Hemke at Sprott Money: Russia, Ukraine crisis, and de-dollarization

Submitted by admin on Tue, 2022-02-22 21:03Section: Daily Dispatches

9p ET Tuesday, February 22, 2022

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Craig Hemke of the TF Metals Report, writing tonight at Sprott Money, notes that U.S. economic sanctions against Russia, including explusion of Russia from the SWIFT international payments system, are likely to accelerate the world economy’s move away from the dollar. 

Hemke’s analysis is headlined “Russia, Ukraine Crisis, and De-Dollarization” and it’s posted at Sprott Money here:

https://www.sprottmoney.com/blog/Russia-Ukraine-Crisis-and-Dedollarization-Craig-Hemke-February-22-2022

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

Stefan outlines the mess that Canadians are now enduring i.e. our financial freedom is under attack

a good read

(Stefan Gleason/GATA)

Stefan Gleason: A warning from Canada — financial freedom is under attack

Submitted by admin on Tue, 2022-02-22 22:40Section: Daily Dispatches

By Stefan Gleason
Money Metals Exchange, Eagle, Idaho
Monday, February 21, 2022

As the world nervously awaits the next development in nuclear-armed Russia’s standoff with Ukraine, a different headline-grabbing standoff may be even more consequential for investors.

Canada’s trucker-led Freedom Convoy has been protesting draconian government mandates and restrictions. In response, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government has decided to get even more draconian

Last week Trudeau invoked emergency powers to target the finances of the truckers and their backers.

In an unprecedented move sidestepping normal due process guarantees, Trudeau ordered banks, insurance companies, and even cryptocurrency exchanges to close the accounts of anyone deemed to be involved in the Freedom Convoy.

Similar trucker-led protests are scheduled to begin this week in Washington ahead of President Joe Biden’s March 1 State of the Union address. In response, the administration has ordered security fencing to be installed around the Capitol building.

Will Canadian-style assaults on financial freedom soon follow? …

… For the remainder of the commentary:

https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2022/02/21/warning-from-canada-financial-freedom-under-attack-002483

end

4.OTHER GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES

END

5.OTHER COMMODITIES/

6.CRYPTOCURRENCIES

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings WEDNESDAY morning 7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP 6.3179

OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.3148

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 140.28 PTS OR 0.60%

2. Nikkei closed

3. Europe stocks  ALL GREEN   

USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO  95.92/Euro RISES TO 1.1339-

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.198/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 115.11/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//

3c Nikkei now  ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 91,56 and Brent: 96.56–

3f Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE CLOSED UP//  OFF- SHORE  UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO +.0.250%/Italian 10 Yr bond yield RISES to 1.93% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD RISES TO 1.27%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.63: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO : 2.61

3k Gold at $1897.35 silver at: 24.16   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3l USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 143/100 in roubles/dollar AT 80.26

3m oil into the 91 dollar handle for WTI and 96 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 115.11 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9195– as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 1.0427 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.978 UP 3 BASIS PTS

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.257 UP 3 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 13.83

Nervous Markets Rebound As Ukraine Tensions Fade

WEDNESDAY, FEB 23, 2022 – 08:01 AM

US equity futures – which on Tuesday tumbled into a technical correction, down 10% from January’s all time highs – rebounded led by tech companies as investor fears over the standoff in Ukraine eased following the limited initial Western sanctions against Russia. As of 7:15am, eminis pared some gains but were still up 0.7% or 28 points on the day; Nasdaq futures were up 0.9% and Dow futures were up 0.54%. The VIX remained elevated, last seen around 28 after trading above 30 yesterday. Treasuries extended declines after the yield curve flattened in the Wall Street session, with the 10Y yield rising to 1.97% after tumbling as low as 1.85% on Tuesday. Crude oil fluctuated, while gold dipped as haven demand eased. The dollar slipped and cryptos reversed some of their recent losses.

Susannah Streeter, senior analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, said there were “signs of bargain hunting among traders, keen to snap up shares sensitive to the situation.” But she warned the geopolitical tension could still escalate, while elevated oil and gas prices were boosting inflationary risks. “The volatility which has hit stocks is set to remain as traders assess this latest attempt to slow down the march toward a full invasion,” said Streeter. And while it has been a generally quiet session for once, here are some of the biggest premarket movers today:

• Palo Alto (PANW US) shares rise 7.3% in U.S. premarket trading after 2Q results impressed analysts, with the cybersecurity company beating most expectations and consensus. Stock has been raised to neutral at JPMorgan.
• Stellantis (STLA US) jumps 6.6% in premarket after the carmaker reported FY21 results and said it is targeting double-digit adj. operating income margin and positive industrial free cash flow this year. Oddo BHF said the results were “much above” expectations, “even the most bullish ones like us.”
• Rackspace Technology (RXT US) shares decline 22% in U.S. premarket as analysts highlight weaker-than-expected 1Q guidance and the absence of FY22 outlook. At least 2 analysts cut their price targets, while Deutsche Bank and BMO Capital Markets downgrade the stock.
• Marinus Pharmaceuticals (MRNS US) slumped 12% in postmarket trading after reporting a delay in the phase 3 trial of Raise, a placebo-controlled trial for the treatment of status epilepticus.
• Cadence Design (CDNS US) climbed 5.8% in postmarket trading after forecasting adjusted earnings per share and revenue for 2022 that beat the average analyst estimates. Fourth-quarter adjusted EPS and revenue also beat expectations.
• Piper Sandler upgrades Marathon Oil (MRO US) to overweight in note on exploration and production sector, while reiterating overweight ratings on “favorite ideas” Devon Energy and Pioneer Natural.

U.S. President Joe Biden said Russia had started to invade Ukraine and announced steps targeting Russia’s sale of sovereign debt abroad, its elites and a pair of banks. The sanctions, as well as others by U.S. allies, however stopped short of actually being seen as painful – as Reuters put it, they only “scratch surface of Fortress Russia” – and led to a surge in Russian assets.

“The softer-than-feared sanctions somewhat help lifting the mood,” Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote, wrote in a note. “The risk appetite is limited, of course, except in some key assets including oil and commodities.”

Meanwhile, Vladimir Putin has denied Russia intends to invade Ukraine, but lawmakers have given him the green light to deploy troops to separatist-held regions. Top U.S. diplomat Antony Blinken later announced that a summit due this week with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov had been canceled.

And while there were no draconian sanctions imposed in response to Putin’s decision, German officials did halt certification of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, an $11 billion project that would have solidified Russia’s grip on Europe’s energy sector. Fears that the Ukraine tension could snarl commodity supplies has bolstered everything from energy to wheat and nickel. Oil paused a blistering rally after the measures against Russia were announced, with Brent crude trading at $96 a barrel after a jump on Tuesday that saw it climb to a 15-year high, just shy of $100.

A key question now is whether the jump in raw material costs stirred by the standoff will spur more aggressive central bank policy. Bets on the number of rate increases by the Federal Reserve in 2022 have settled at about six 25-basis-point hikes, down from seven on Feb. 11. For the European Central Bank, swaps suggest the first quarter-point move will take place by October, compared with September earlier in the month.

“Inflationary pressures will mechanically intensify with higher commodity prices, increasing the risk of stagflation and challenging ECB actions,” according to Amundi SA money managers including Chief Investment Officer Vincent Mortier. “Europe is clearly more vulnerable regarding this geopolitical clash.”

In Europe, the Stoxx 50 rallies 1.2%. CAC 40 outperforms, adding 1.3%, FTSE 100 lags, adding 0.4%. Carmakers and chemical companies led gains in the Stoxx Europe 600 Index, which advanced 0.8%. Stellantis, Danone and Iberdrola all jumped after posting better-than-expected earnings and outlook. Here are some of the other prominent European movers today:

• JDE Peet’s shares surge as much as 13% after the company reported full-year revenue that beat estimates. The results showed the business model is “stronger than feared,” according to Citi.
• Stellantis gains as much as 6.2% in Milan after the carmaker reported FY21 results. Oddo BHF said the results were “much above” expectations, even for the most bullish analysts.
• Danone climbs as much as 4.9% after the yogurt maker reported 4Q figures that beat expectations while reassuring on measures taken to mitigate risk from Russia/Ukraine tensions.
• Henkel jumps as much as 5% after the German consumer- goods group reported 4Q results that indicate “significant” demand recovery in most of its business units, Raiffeisen says.
• Unite Group jumps as much as 9.3%, the most since Nov. 2020, after reporting full-year results, with Liberum noting the student accommodation developer’s return to growth.
• Iberdrola rises after the Spanish power company reported its latest earnings. Jefferies says reaffirmed net income guidance for FY22 was a positive.
• Storskogen drops as much as 18% after the Swedish investment company reported earnings which Kepler says missed consensus expectations. The shares are now down 55% this year.
• Samhallsbyggnadsbolaget i Norden (SBB) falls as much as 9.4% after a two-day rally. Pareto Securities says the company’s earnings show it’s “outperforming all expectations.”
• Campari slumps as much as 7.3% after the Aperol maker reported FY results, with CEO Bob Kunze-Concewitz flagging that input-cost pressure will intensify further, postponing gross margin accretion.
• Uniper falls as much as 5.3% to a five-month low after the German utility warned of a potential impairment to its stake in Nord Stream 2, which is was put on hold amid escalating tensions over Ukraine.
• Tomra Systems declines as much as 6.4% after the Norwegian recycling firm reported profitability that was “a bit shy of consensus,” Handelsbanken says.
• CNH Industrial falls as much as 4.8% in Milan and is the worst-performer on the FTSE MIB benchmark after the company presented its updated 2024 strategic business plan.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks were poised to snap a three-day decline, as the U.S. unveiled sanctions against Russia that avoided the harshest restrictions and China’s tech shares posted modest gains. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed as much as 0.4%, with consumer discretionary and tech shares driving gains. Meituan and JD.com were among the biggest contributors to the Asian gauge’s advance, as some traders eyed cheaper valuations following a brutal three-day slide in Chinese tech stocks amid regulatory concerns.  “It’s just a breather as markets absorb the ongoing flow of news from Ukraine,” said Gary Dugan, chief executive officer at the Global CIO Office. “Asian equities are a defensive play given limited direct exposure to Ukraine and the ongoing positives of still easy monetary conditions and reopening of economies.” Shares in mainland China and Indonesia were among the top performers regionally on Wednesday, while U.S. futures signaled a positive open on Wall Street. Asia stocks have remained resilient this month due to the limited impact from Russia-Ukraine tensions, although concerns around fresh regulatory scrutiny of China’s tech industry — and the exposure of state-owned firms to the likes of Alibaba — is denting sentiment. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index is up about 0.5% in February compared with a 3% decline in its global counterpart

In rates, treasuries sold off, with yields rising by up to 4 basis points, led by the front end of the curve as the market assesses the impact of Western sanctions on Russia as well as Ukraine seeks to declare a nationwide state of emergency. Yields were cheaper by 2bp-3bp across the curve, with switch to new 2-year helping flatten 2s10s spread by more than 2bp to lowest level since March 2020; 10-year yield at about 1.97% is cheaper by 2.8bp vs Tuesday’s close, with comparable gilts and bunds little changed. Gilts curve bull flatten while BOE’s Bailey and other policymakers speak. Bund and Treasuries curves bear flatten. Cash USTs cheapen ~7bps across the short end. Meanwhile the dollar, oil and gold slip.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index slumped as the greenback weakened or was steady against all of its Group-of-10 peers while JPY, CHF and GBP are the weakest performers in G-10 FX; NZD, NOK and AUD outperform. Risk-sensitive currencies, led by the New Zealand dollar, were the best G-10 performers. The Kiwi advanced as much as 1% to $0.6799, while 2-year sovereign bonds underperformed their Aussie peers as the RBNZ said it now expects the policy rate to rise to at least 2.5% by early next year, versus a forecast in November for it to reach that level by the third quarter of 2023; it also lifted the official cash rate by 25 basis points to 1%, in line with estimates. The Australian dollar reached its highest level in a month even as weak Australian wage and construction data backed the case for the RBA to be patient in tightening policy. Russian ruble lags EMFX, down 0.7% against the dollar.

The euro advanced a second day, but failed to rise above $1.1350; European sovereign bond yield curves bear flattened and money markets rose tightening wagers after ECB’s Holzmann said the ECB should decide on a first rate increase in the summer, before the end of asset purchases, followed by a second move at the end of the year. The pound held modest gains against the dollar and drifted versus the euro as BOE’s Andrew Bailey, Ben Broadbent, Jonathan Haskel and Silvana Tenreyro testified to parliament’s Treasury Committee. Options pricing suggests there’s a 50% chance the ruble will sink to a record low against the dollar within the next two months — dipping below levels from 2016 when the economy was mired in a recession. Technical analysts are also eyeing the same move, with a trendline of the currency pair on the verge of giving way.

In commodities, crude futures declined. WTI drifts 0.9% lower to trade near $91. Brent falls 0.7% to around $96.  Spot gold falls roughly $5 to trade around $1,894/oz. Most base metals trade in the red; LME aluminum falls 0.9%, underperforming peers. LME copper outperforms.

Looking to the day ahead now, and central bank speakers include BoE Governor Bailey, Deputy Governor Broadbent, and the BoE’s Haskel and Tenreyro, in addition to ECB Vice President de Guindos, and the ECB’s de Cos, and San Francisco Fed President Daly. Otherwise, earnings releases include Lowe’s, Booking Holdings and TJX.

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 futures up 1.0% to 4,344.25
• STOXX Europe 600 up 1.1% to 459.96
• MXAP up 0.3% to 185.63
• MXAPJ up 0.4% to 612.54
• Nikkei down 1.7% to 26,449.61
• Topix down 1.5% to 1,881.08
• Hang Seng Index up 0.6% to 23,660.28
• Shanghai Composite up 0.9% to 3,489.15
• Sensex little changed at 57,343.24
• Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.6% to 7,205.69
• Kospi up 0.5% to 2,719.53
• German 10Y yield little changed at 0.25%
• Euro up 0.2% to $1.1343
• Brent Futures down 0.5% to $96.34/bbl
• Gold spot down 0.4% to $1,891.03
• U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 95.94

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

• President Vladimir Putin said he remains ready to pursue “diplomatic solutions” as long as Russia’s interests and security are guaranteed, after the U.S. and its allies agreed on a “first tranche” of sanctions against Moscow for its actions over separatist-held Ukrainian territory
• Ukrainians should leave Russia immediately and not travel there due to the “increasing Russian aggression,” Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry says in statement
• Ukraine’s worsening crisis means the ECB will put even greater emphasis on its flexibility and options as it exits stimulus measures and shifts toward raising rates, Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau said
• U.S. President Joe Biden’s debut set of sanctions on Russia for its actions over disputed Ukrainian territory hit markets with a whimper and were quickly criticized as limited in scope
• Prices for natural gas and electricity in Europe advanced after President Joe Biden said Russia had begun to invade neighboring Ukraine and imposed a range of sanctions on Moscow
• Traders expect machines and mobile apps to take over even more of the action in financial markets in 2022. More than 60% of traders predicted an increase in algorithmic trading in the next two years, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s annual FICC e-Trading Survey. That’s expected to lead to an additional 19% of their currency trading being done by algorithmic orders
• The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s Monetary Policy Committee increased the official cash rate by 25 basis points to 1% Wednesday. New forecasts published by the RBNZ show the cash rate climbing to 2.5% over the next 12 months and peaking at about 3.25% at the end of 2023. In November, it had forecast a peak of about 2.5%
• President Joe Biden said the U.S. would impose a first wave of sanctions on Russia and is shifting American forces already based in Europe, and a meeting between the top U.S. and Russian diplomats was canceled. Biden’s announcement followed earlier sanctions after the European Union and the U.K. set out an initial set of limited penalties targeting Moscow
• Australia’s annual wages growth edged higher last quarter, while remaining short of levels needed to bring forward an interest-rate hike
• Oil stabilized after U.S. President Joe Biden unveiled sanctions against Russia that avoided the harshest penalties, while progress on the Iran nuclear talks offered to bring some relief to a tightening market

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Nesquawk

Asia-Pac stocks were positive but with upside capped after the S&P 500 closed in correction territory for the first time in two years and as participants digested the sanctions response to Russia’s actions on Ukraine which targeted individuals and banks although the largest Russian banks Sberbank and VTB Bank avoided sanctions. ASX 200 was led higher by outperformance in tech and with focus also on a slew or earnings results. Nikkei 225 remained closed for the Emperor’s Birthday holiday. KOSPI gained but was restricted after daily COVID-19 cases surpassed 150k for the first time on Tuesday. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. rebounded from the prior day’s losses after the PBoC boosted its liquidity efforts heading into month-end and with tech stocks finding reprieve from yesterday’s crackdown fears, while Hong Kong’s budget included counter cyclical measures of over HKD 170bln and HKD 54bln of anti-epidemic measures.

Top Asian News

• Hong Kong’s CLP Said to Mull Sale of $2 Billion EnergyAustralia
• Rio Tinto to Pay $7.7 Billion Dividend as Profit Hits Record
• Asian Stocks Advance as Traders Eye Russia Sanctions, China Tech
• Chinese Tech Stocks Rebound as Traders Weigh Crackdown Risks

European bourses are firmer, Euro Stoxx 50 +1.0%, with gains relatively broad based though the oil-exposed FTSE 100 lags given benchmark pricing. US futures, ES +0.6%, are also firmer as newsflow is comparably slower and as participants also take impetus from sanctions being less-stringent than some feared. European sectors are predominantly in the green, though Energy lags given benchmark pricing while Autos and Food, Beverage & Tobacco outperforms on earnings.

Top European News

• Germany Says It Can Do Without Russian Gas. That’s a Tall Order
• Telecom Italia Weighs $1.5 Billion Tower Unit Stake Sale
• Barclays Hits Record Annual Profit as Dealmakers Outperform
• HSBC Bankers Grounded as Pandemic Cut Business Travel by 96%

In FX, the DXY is still hugging 96.000, as firmer US Treasury yields compensate for loss of safe haven premium. Kiwi outperforms following hawkish guidance from RBNZ in wake of latest OCR hike that was finely balanced between the 25 bp delivered and 50 bp deliberated – Nzd/Usd eyes 0.6800. Aussie up due to ongoing improvement in risk appetite evident in commodities and Loonie also benefiting from similar factors, as Aud/Usd clears 0.7250 and Usd/Cad approaches 1.2700. Pound ponders BoE testimony implying more tightening but less hawkish dissent, with Cable cresting 1.3600. Euro holds firmly on the 1.130O handle and well flanked by decent option expiry interest either side of circa 1.1350+ to 1.1280 recent range. Rand awaits SA Budget around the 15.0000 mark and watches Gold attempting to stay within striking distance of Usd 1900/oz

In commodities, crude benchmarks are experiencing a pull-back this morning as newsflow is comparably slower than at this point yesterday and in the context of yesterday’s notable upside. Thus far, Brent has moved to a test of yesterday’s low at USD 95.80/bbl, though WTI remains someway from the comparable mark given the lack of settlement earlier in the week. US State Department official said US actions on Russia will not likely disrupt global energy markets and said officials did not discuss increasing oil output during the US trip to Saudi Arabia last week. US is coordinating with oil consuming countries to make sure all are able to respond if necessary and OPEC countries understand US concerns about importance of stability of global oil markets, while the official added that nothing currently happening on the ground in Ukraine risks oil flows. Spot gold remains in relative proximity to USD 1900/oz but with a negative bias while LME Copper retain an underlying bid but remains below the 10k handle

In fixed income, UK bonds and STIR futures regain poise as BoE members signal a tempered tightening pace going forward. Bunds encouraged by a very strong 2036 German debt sale. US Treasuries lag awaiting USD 53bln 5 year issuance.

Geopolitical news:

• EU Ambassadors have approved sanctions on Russia, according to a EU diplomat via Reuters. *Reminder, there is a 14:00GMT/09:0EST deadline for the EU Foreign Affairs Ministers to give their final approval to the full legal text of such sanctions.
• EU to sanction Russian Defense Minister Shoigu, and Russia’s internet research agency, as part of first-wave restrictions, via WSJ.
• The UK is finalizing a stronger sanctions package to impose on Russia in the coming days, according to sources via Politico.
• Ukraine Foreign Minister Kuleba said sanctions from the US are specific and painful, while he added that pressure on Russia should be stepped up. Kuleba also stated that President Biden’s sanctions announcement looks strong as a first move and they received a promise of more assistance from the US, while they are not seeking US troops on the ground, according to a Fox interview
• Canadian PM Trudeau announced sanctions on Russia in coordination with allies in which Canadians were banned from all dealing with the so-called independent states of Luhansk and Donetsk, while Canadians are also banned from engaging in purchases of Russian sovereign debt. Furthermore, they will apply additional sanctions on two state-backed Russian banks and will sanction Russian parliament members who voted to recognise the so-called republics.
• Australian PM Morrison announced he is to impose sanctions on some Russian individuals, travel bans and targeted financial sanctions, while PM Morrison said expect subsequent tranches of sanctions and that this is only the start of the process.
• Japanese PM Kishida announced a ban of Russian issue of bonds in Japan and said he doesn’t see a big impact on energy supply in the short-term from current situation, while he announced a freeze of assets of certain Russian individuals.
• Russia Finance Ministry closely monitoring financial markets after US placed restrictions on Russian debt; OFZ auction to depend on market conditions; could issue with papers carrying lower level of interest rate risk, via Reuters

Central banks:

• RBNZ hiked the OCR by 25bps to 1.00% as expected and said the OCR is expected to peak at a higher level than assumed in the November statement, while the committee affirmed it was willing to move the OCR in larger increments if required over the coming quarters. RBNZ said many members saw this as a finely balanced decision whether to move OCR up by 25bps or 50bps and it noted more tightening is needed, as well as agreed to commence a gradual reduction of holdings under the LSAP programme in which it intends to commence bond sales in July. Furthermore, it said headline CPI is well above RBNZ target range but will return towards 2% mid-point in coming years. and sees the OCR at 2.84% in June 2023 (prev. 2.40%).
• RBNZ Governor Orr said cannot rule out 50bps hikes in the future and that rates do need to rise significantly but they will take their time step by step, while he added the amount of tightening through bond sales is very small and that it is all about the OCR.
• Fed’s Bostic (2024 voter, hawk) said the economy is still quite strong as officials try to figure out the economy in real time, while companies and output remain restrained by inability to find workers. Fed’s Bostic (2024 voter) says businesses are feeling need to adjust wages but it is not clear how long it will persist, adds have not seen worrisome changes yet in long-term inflation expectations
• ECB’s Holzmann said the council should consider two rate hikes this year and sees neutral rate at 1.50% as realistic by 2024.
• ECB’s Villeroy says, re. Ukraine, we will assess in March the more indirect consequences on inflation/growth and will be facts driven.
• BoE Governor Bailey says there are two-sided risks to the inflation forecast, important not to suggest there is a difference in the view on the MPC about the level that rates need to reach, as opposed to the pace.
• Second-round effects present an upside risk to inflation. If second-round effects materialise, will need to react with higher interest rates.

US Event Calendar

• 7 a.m.: Feb. MBA Mortgage Applications -13.1%, prior -5.4%
• 3:30 p.m.: Fed’s Daly Speaks At Los Angeles World Affairs Council

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

As we go to press, geopolitical tensions continue to remain the dominant theme in markets, although a number of assets have now begun to stabilise after heavy losses on Monday and early Tuesday. This morning futures on the S&P 500 are up +0.56%, whilst oil has steadied at $97.17/bbl, having come down from a peak of $99.50/bbl over the last 24 hours. Asian equities have also regained ground overnight as risk appetite has recovered, with the Hang Seng (+0.85%), the CSI 300 (+0.88%) and the Shanghai Composite (+0.77%) all posting a decent advance, whilst Japanese markets are closed for a holiday. The coming day could well be pivotal, with Australian Prime Minister Morrison saying overnight that Russia was “at peak readiness to now complete a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and that is likely to occur within the next 24 hours.”

Those moves follow President Biden’s address last night where he labelled Russia’s moves against Ukraine an invasion and announced a first tranche of sanctions on the country. The sanctions were coordinated with European allies and thus very similar to what European leaders announced. The US will sanction banks connected with the Russian defence industry, certain Russian elites, prevent Russia from issuing debt to western investors, and prevent Russian sovereign debt issued after March 1 from trading on secondary markets in the US. These were not the harshest sanctions the US could impose, and it was noted the sanctions will escalate in severity along with any escalation in Ukraine. Diplomatically, Secretary of State Blinken noted President Putin’s remarks were deeply disturbing and cancelled his upcoming meeting with his Russian counterpart Foreign Minister Lavrov. Blinken described the rationale for cancelling the meeting, “Now that we see the invasion is beginning and Russia has made clear its wholesale rejection of diplomacy, it does not make sense to go forward with that meeting at this time.” While President Biden assured the public that the US had no intention of fighting Russia, they will increase the amount of troops and materiel deployed in eastern Europe.

Meanwhile, the upper house of Russia’s parliament approved the use of troop deployments to the self-proclaimed republics.

Earlier in the day, the EU similarly said that member states had given political agreement for sanctions against Russia, and Commission President von der Leyen said in a statement that they “target banks that finance the Russian military apparatus and contribute to the destabilisation of Ukraine”, and that they were also “limiting the Russian government´s ability to raise capital on the EU’s financial markets.” Separately the UK unveiled some measures, including freezes on 5 banks and 3 individuals, along with sanctions on members of the Russian Duma and Federation Council who voted to recognise the independence of the two breakaway provinces.

There was also a notable development from Germany, as it was announced that they’d be putting the Nord Stream 2 certification process on hold in light of President Putin’s move to send troops into eastern Ukraine. The move was welcomed by the White House, although European natural gas futures ended the day up +9.96% at €79.79 per megawatt hour, with a noticeable spike occurring after Chancellor Scholz’s announcement on the issue. President von der Leyen also welcomed this, saying that “Nord Stream 2 has to be assessed in light of the security of energy supply for the whole of Europe. Because this crisis shows that Europe is still too dependent on Russian gas.”

For markets all this meant it was a fairly mixed day yesterday. The S&P 500 fell -1.01% as it caught up following the previous day’s holiday, although the STOXX 600 in Europe actually eked out a +0.07% gain after recovering from its early losses. For a sense of this big turnaround, you only had to look at Russian assets themselves, where the MOEX equity index initially fell -9.23% shortly after we went to press yesterday, before paring back its losses through the day to actually close up +1.42%, so a recovery of almost 12% by the close compared to those initial losses.

The tensions led to further rises in commodity prices, with Brent crude oil closing at a post-2014 high of $96.84/bbl, albeit that was actually more than a couple of dollars beneath its intraday peak of $99.50/bbl in the European morning. Separately, Nickel prices on the London metal exchange rose above $25,000/ton for the first time in over a decade at one point on an intraday basis, and corn futures (+3.03%) hit a 7-month high of their own. These broad-based rises in commodities sent the Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index (+1.71%) up to a fresh record, which won’t be welcome news for central banks who are grappling with how to avoid supply shocks leading to more generalised inflation.

For sovereign bonds, those fears of inflation outweighed the flight to haven assets yesterday, with yields rising across different countries and maturities. Yields on 10yr Treasuries ended the day up +1.0bps at 1.94%, though just before the European open they’d been beneath 1.85%, so again a big turnaround on the day. That rise was entirely driven by higher breakevens, with the 10yr real yield actually down -2.4bps yesterday to -0.54%. And yesterday also saw the 2s10s yield curve flatten by another -7.3bps, bringing it back to 38.4bps, which is the flattest it has been since the initial Covid outbreak in April 2020. Europe saw a similar movement in yields, with those on 10yr bunds (+3.6bps), OATs (+1.7bps) and BTPs (+1.3bps) all moving higher on the day, whilst those on Russian 10yr debt were up a further +30.0bps.

In light of the Ukraine crisis, the main market theme from a couple of weeks back of the potential for more aggressive central bank hiking cycles has moved off the agenda somewhat. Indeed, the amount of ECB hikes priced in by the December meeting fell back to 35bps yesterday, the lowest since their meeting earlier this month. Meanwhile for the BoE, overnight index swaps were only pricing in a 31% chance of a 50bps move in March by the close yesterday, which followed a speech by Deputy Governor Ramsden, who voted for a larger 50bp move in February. Whilst Ramsden said that “some further modest tightening in monetary policy is likely to be appropriate in the coming months”, he emphasised that “The word “modest” is significant here though”.

Staying on central banks, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand hiked its official policy rate by 25bps overnight, taking the Official Cash Rate to 1%. With inflation remaining a threat, the central bank signalled that more tightening is needed going forward, and they didn’t rule out the possibility of hikes in larger increments if the need arose. Following the policy announcement, which signposted a more aggressive pace of tightening relative to November, the New Zealand dollar has strengthened by +0.44% against the US dollar this morning.

On the data front, the US Conference Board’s consumer confidence indicator fell to a 5-month low in February at 110.5 (vs. 110.0 expected), with the expectations measure falling to 87.5. That said, the flash PMIs came in above expectations, echoing what we saw the previous day in Europe, with the composite PMI up to 56.0 (vs. 52.5 expected). And on top of that, house prices continued to show further strength into the end of last year, with the FHFA house price index for December up +1.2% (vs. +1.0% expected), which is its fastest monthly growth since July. Separately in Germany, the Ifo’s business climate indicator for February rose to a 5-month high of 98.9 (vs. 96.5 expected).

To the day ahead now, and central bank speakers include BoE Governor Bailey, Deputy Governor Broadbent, and the BoE’s Haskel and Tenreyro, in addition to ECB Vice President de Guindos, and the ECB’s de Cos, and San Francisco Fed President Daly. Otherwise, earnings releases include Lowe’s, Booking Holdings and TJX.

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)WEDNESDAY MORNING// TUESDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 32.00 PTS OR 0.93%       //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 140.28 PTS OR 0.60%  /The Nikkei closed DOWN 461.26 or 1.71%       //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.70%  /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP 6.3279    /Oil DOWN TO 91.56 dollars per barrel for WTI and UP TO 96.65 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED  ALL GREEN       //  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.3179. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.3148: /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFF SHORE STRONGER//

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

///NORTH KOREA

3B JAPAN

3c CHINA

/CHINA

end

CHINA/USA/RUSSIA

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK AFFFAIRS

High energy costs to UK households (($2700 //2000 pounds per year) is causing struggles as inflation hits a 30 yr high and yet ne taxes kick in further aggravating the situation

(zerohedge)

UK Households Struggle As Inflation Hits 30-Year High, New Taxes Kick In

WEDNESDAY, FEB 23, 2022 – 04:15 AM

Millions of Britons who previously found themselves financially ‘comfortable’ are feeling the heat over accelerating inflation, record energy bills, and tax increases which kick in this year.

According to the Bank of England, scorching inflation will result in the largest drop in disposable income in 30 years when adjusted for inflation.

In April, UK energy bills are due to jump 54% to around 2,000 pounds ($2,723) a year per household. While some of it will be offset by emergency government support – and social security will also increase, it will be against the backdrop of rising interest rates according to Reuters.

“There’s just too much going up at once,” said 38-yaer-old care worker Nicola Frape, who huddles under blankets with her 14-year-old daughter to conserve heat, and have limited roadtrips due to the price of gas. “The pressure is just going to be even worse in April,” she added.

With economies around the world rebounding from coronavirus lockdowns, prices for everything from food and clothes to haircuts and rent, as well as energy are going up, fuelled by resurgent demand and shortages due to supply chain disruptions.

Accurate national comparisons of changes in living standards are hard to make but concerns about inflation are emerging as a big factor in elections including France’s presidential race in April and U.S. midterm elections in November. -Reuters

A February survey found that the number of people experiencing food insecurity was 20% higher in January than the previous six months, according to FT.

The decline in living standards for much of the UK population prompted chancellor Rishi Sunak last week to announce a £9bn package to help struggling households.

On the same day energy regulator Ofgem announced a 54 per cent rise in energy bills and the Bank of England increased interest rates from 0.25 per cent to 0.5 per cent. It warned inflation could hit 7.25 per cent by April, threatening to limit people’s spending power as a planned increase in National Insurance contributions reduces their take-home pay.

In January, Britain’s consumer price inflation hit 5.5% y/y, the highest since 1992. It’s set to top 7% in April, at which point the BoE thinks they may begin to slow. That said, they also expect it will be above 5% in a year’s time. 

In the US, ‘official’ inflation is north of 7% – the highest since the early 1980s.

According to the National Institute of Economic and Social Research think tank, the combination of April’s payroll tax increase plus inflation could result in a 30% rise in destitution across the UK.

The rampant inflation in the UK has sent government interest rates soaring – hitting £6.1bn last month, the highest amount for a January since records began in April 1997 and up from £4.5bn last year, the BBC reports.

The payments are pegged to the Retail Prices Index (RPI) measure of inflation – which reached 7.8% in January.

January’s interest payments were, however, below the all-time high of £9bn in June last year.

Paul Johnson, director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, told the BBC it was worth noting that “overall interest payments by the government are still at remarkably low levels” despite UK debt levels at the highest for 60 years. -BBC

Meanwhile between April and September of 2021, food bank deliveries rose 11% vs. the same period in 2019, hitting one of its highest levels ever in December. At one West London food bank, Dad’s House, some of the former donors to the charity are now recipients of support.

“I have to pay my bills,” said Jackie Gordon, 52. “I’m behind with my rent and I don’t want to get evicted.”

Rebecca McDonald, a senior economist at the Joseph Rowntree Foundation, said this year will likely leave a lasting mark on poorer households regardless of whatever inflation does.

“It’s going to feel like a much more longer-term issue because this year is going to be incredibly difficult,” she said, adding that many formerly financially sound families will likely go into debt this year.

END

UK/COVID/AUSTRALIA/IVERMECTIN

What a right: an Australiannews program “the Current Affair” has now apologized for “accidentally implying Queen Elzabeth ii could benefit from her COVID 19 illness using ivemectin.

The answer is yes even though she took the shots+ booster

(Teng/EpochTimes)

Aussie News Show Apologises For Implying Queen Could Benefit From Ivermectin

WEDNESDAY, FEB 23, 2022 – 03:30 AM

Authored by Daniel Teng via The Epoch Times,

Australian news program “A Current Affair” has apologised for accidentally implying Queen Elizabeth II—who is suffering from COVID-19—could benefit from being treated with ivermectin.

Queen Elizabeth II speaks during an audience where she met the incoming and outgoing Defence Service Secretaries at Windsor Castle in Windsor, Britain, on Feb. 16, 2022. (Steve Parsons/Pool/Reuters)

The segment produced by the program showed a video package including a voiceover, interview, and images of two different drugs, which, when edited together, unintentionally implied to the viewer that general practitioner, Dr. Mukesh Haikerwal, was suggesting the head of the British royal family could benefit from ivermectin.

The program, which aired on the evening of Feb. 21, starts with footage of Dr. Haikerwal walking around his clinic.

The voiceover begins:

“Dr. Mukesh Haikerwal says a COVID patient the Queen’s age should be isolating, and might benefit from new medicines currently approved for high-risk patients at Australian hospitals.”

The video then cuts to images of Sotrovimab, a novel monoclonal antibody treatment, and Stromectol, the U.S. brand name for ivermectin.

The shot from Nine’s “A Current Affairs” program including an image of Stromectol, the U.S. brand name for ivermectin, which was published on Feb. 21 and subsequently edited and removed. (Screenshot by The Epoch Times)

The interview with Dr. Haikerwal then picks up again with the doctor saying:

“These tablets, or these infusions, can make a dramatic difference to their immediate welfare and health to how they feel, but also the long term benefits as well.”

The choice of positioning the shot of Stromectol in between the narration and Dr. Haikerwal’s quote conveyed a meaning the show did not seem to intend.

The clip was quickly picked up on social media and gained traction—given the contentious nature of ivermectin.

Queensland Senator Gerard Rennick posted the clip on his Facebook page saying, “What does Channel 9 know that we don’t? Is Ivermectin (Stromectol) … being administered to COVID patients at Australian hospitals?”

“The Therapeutic Goods Administration and Health Departments have been caught out lying on so many occasions it would not surprise me,” he said.

A spokesperson from the program said producers had apologised to the doctor and the program has been corrected.

“Last night our report on the Queen contained a shot that shouldn’t have been included. The shot was included as a result of human error,” according to a statement sent to The Epoch Times.

“We were highlighting an approved infusion medication called Sotrovimab and the report accidentally cut to a shot of Stromectol. As a program we’ve done numerous stories highlighting the concerns around taking Ivermectin as a treatment for COVID-19.

The Nine logo in Melbourne, Australia, on July 26. 2020 (Scott Barbour/Getty Images)

“We did not intend to suggest Dr. Mukesh Haikerwal endorsed Stromectol. We’ve apologised to him this morning, and he has accepted that apology,” the statement read.

The spokesperson added that “A Current Affair” did not intend to suggest the Queen was using ivermectin.

Meanwhile, Dr. Haikerwal took to Twitter to post a link outlining what drugs were approved in Australia to treat COVID-19.

Australia’s federal Department of Health re-emphasised that ivermectin does not have regulatory approval for treating COVID-19 in Australia or in any OECD country.

“Oral ivermectin (Stromectol) is approved by the Therapeutic Goods Administration (TGA) for the treatment of river blindness, threadworm of the intestines and scabies, and is available on prescription for these indications,” a federal health department spokesperson said.

“Certain specialists are permitted to prescribe ivermectin for unapproved indications where the specialist believes it is appropriate for a particular patient. This restriction is outlined in the Poisons Standard.”

Drug regulatory bodies including Australia’s TGA and the U.S. Food and Drug Administration have taken a firm stance against the use of ivermectin for treating COVID-19.

In November, the TGA fined an Australian man $7,992 (US$5,754.84) for advertising ivermectin and zinc lozenges to treat the disease caused by the novel coronavirus.

Ivermectin is a generic medicine that can be produced cheaply in many places around the world and has been widely used in humans against parasitic worms, and to combat scabies, lice, as well as rosacea. It is also used as an anti-parasite drug in livestock, including horses and cows.

Some doctors and healthcare professionals have considered ivermectin as a suitable alternative for tackling COVID-19, especially when used in early treatment.

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

RUSSIA//UKRAINE/DONBASS//TUESDAY NIGHT

Russia evaculates diplomats from Ukraine

(zerohedge)

Russia Evacuates Diplomats From Ukraine In Ominous Sign

TUESDAY, FEB 22, 2022 – 04:40 PM

The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs has announced its decision to evacuate its diplomatic staff from the embassy in Ukraine and three consulates across the country, citing “threats of physical violence.”

“Since 2014, the Russian Embassy in Kiev and the Consulates General of our country in Odessa, Lviv and Kharkiv have been subjected to repeated attacks,” the statement indicated. Pundits in the West are seeing in this an ominous sign that Russia could take its military operations beyond the Donbas region. This also as the White House on Tuesday morning began calling Putin’s independence declaration as start of “an invasion”. Archived image: Russian Embassy, Kiev. AP Image

“Provocations were regularly staged against the Russian Center for Science and Culture in Kyiv, harm was caused to the health of its head, and damage was also caused to the property of the Center. Russian diplomats also became objects of aggressive actions. They received threats of physical violence,” the foreign ministry statement said.

“Their vehicles were set on fire. Contrary to their obligations under the Vienna Conventions on Diplomatic and Consular Relations, the Kyiv authorities did not react to what was happening,” it continued. 

The timing of the move came immediately after Russia’s Federation Council gave formal approval for Putin to legally exercise the right to deploy troops abroad, and after that there were reports of convoys moving toward the border with the breakaway republics of Donetsk and Luhansk.

Meanwhile, the US has continued to accuse Moscow of preparing a broader invasion of Ukraine, with Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield telling a UN Security Council emergency meeting, “Today, President Putin has torn the Minsk agreements to shreds. We have been clear that we do not believe he will stop at that,” she said. 

Thomas-Greenfield called the signing of the treaties for the republics’ independence from Ukraine a “clear violation of international law and Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.”

end

UKRAINE/USA RUSSIA/TUESDAY  NIGHT

Crazy Blinken cancels Lavros meeting.  Zelenskiy calls up reserve forces. This will end up in diplomacy where new boundaires are set where to put nuclear weapons

(zerohedge)

Blinken Abruptly Cancels Lavrov Meeting As Ukraine’s President Calls Up Reserve Forces

TUESDAY, FEB 22, 2022 – 05:40 PM

Two notable events late in the day Tuesday strongly suggest further escalation is on the horizon. First, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has announced he canceled his planned meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov which had for days been set for Thursday.

He cited as reason for the cancelation Russia’s “invasion” of Ukraine. He said this invasion is in progress due to the Kremlin authorizing troops to go into the two breakaway republics of the Donbas region. “Last week, I agreed to meet Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov this week, on Feb. 24, to discuss our country’s respective concerns about European security. But only if Russia did not invade Ukraine,” Blinken said while standing alongside his Ukrainian counterpart FM Dmytro Kuleba.

“Now that we see the invasion is beginning and Russia has made clear its wholesale rejection of diplomacy, it does not make sense to go forward with that meeting at this time,” the US top diplomat continued. “I consulted with our allies and partners. All agree. Today I sent Foreign Minister Lavrov a letter informing him of this,” Blinken said.

Moscow has continued to insist that it is not “invading” Ukraine, nor does it have plans to, after a senior White House official lodged the accusation during a morning CNN interview. 

Despite the apparent rejection of face-to-face talks at this point, Blinken indicated diplomacy remains open – though it’s increasingly not looking that way. Blinken said the US “remain committed to diplomacy if Russia is prepared to take demonstrable steps to provide the international community any degree of confidence that it’s serious about de-escalating and finding a diplomatic solution.”

Also alarming is that French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian said the same day that his own meeting with Lavrov which had been set for Friday is now canceled. 

The second alarming development is that Ukraine’s president has called up reserves, but is also assuring that there won’t as yet be a general mobilization of forces. 

President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine described the reserve forces as being called up for “military training” – but stressed the diplomacy would continue.  “We desire peace and calm but if we are quiet today then tomorrow we will disappear,” he said. 

He emphasized that he continues to believe “there will be no war” – thus it appears Kiev still views Russia’s intent as limited in scope. “With regards to being on a military footing, we understand there will be no war,” Zelensky said. “There will not be an all-out war against Ukraine, and there will not be a broad escalation from Russia. If there is, then we will put Ukraine on a war footing,” he said earlier in the day. 

END

UKRAINE/RUSSIA/THE GLOBE

Ukraine calls for a state of emergency ,yet calm does remain

(zerohedge)

Ukraine Calls For State Of Emergency “To Ensure Calm Remains”

WEDNESDAY, FEB 23, 2022 – 07:12 AM

Ukraine’s national security council will introduce a state of emergency Wednesday across the entire country except for eastern regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, where a state of emergency has been in place since 2014. Both areas are controlled by Russian-backed separatists and are now recognized by Russia.

The council’s secretary Oleksiy Danilov will ask parliament to approve the emergency order, which will give power to authorities to decide on matters including people’s movements inside affected regions, curfews, restrictions on mass gatherings and media, and evacuations, and will attempt to mitigate any spillover of insurgency from Donetsk and Luhansk into the rest of the country. Local authorities will decide on which restrictions to implement, Danilov said noting that new safety protocols will be introduced upon parliamentary approval, including vehicle checks. 

The AFP quoted Danilov as saying each region in Ukraine will have specific safety protocols. When asked what this could be, he said, “this could be added enforcement of public order.”

“These are preventive measures to ensure that calm remains in the country and that our economy continues functioning,” Mr. Danilov said.

Lawmakers in Kyiv, the capital of Ukraine, asked for stricter sanctions on Russia following the EU and US slapping Russia with sanctions that target the economy and Russian President Putin’s billionaire friends group. 

President Biden on Tuesday afternoon avoided asserting that a Russian “invasion” had already taken place and opted for the phrasing that Putin is “setting up for an invasion” – which if accomplished will result in severe US sanctions “far beyond 2014”. Biden prefaced this by saying the US believes Russia will “extend deeper” beyond the Donbas.

Biden introduced the “first tranche of sanctions to impose costs on Russia,” including “implementing full blocking sanctions” on two major banking institutions, including a top military bank. He also unveiled sanctions on Russia’s sovereign debt and previewed punitive measures on certain Russian elites and their family members.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba tweeted Wednesday that even more sanctions are needed “to stop Putin from further aggression.” He added: “Now it is necessary to increase the pressure. Strike the Russian economy and Putin’s entourage.” 

“Plan A is to utilize every tool of diplomacy, to deter Russia and prevent further escalation,” Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said at a press conference with Secretary of State Antony Blinken yesterday.

“And if that fails, plan B is to fight for every inch of our land, and every city and every village. To fight until we win.”

Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry advised citizens to leave Russia immediately, citing “the intensification of Russian aggression against Ukraine” that may make it impossible for its consulates to offer help inside Russia. It also advised Ukrainians to avoid any travel to Russia.

end

I do not think Russia will go any further than the two breakaway republics. However they do want to see nuclea arms pointing at them form the Baltic states, removed

(zerohedge)

Latvia Says Russian Tanks Entering Donbas As Australia Warns Of “Large-Scale Invasion” In “24-48 Hours”

WEDNESDAY, FEB 23, 2022 – 12:25 PM

The prime minister of Latvia says Russian troops and tanks have now moved into eastern regions of Ukraine which Putin has recognized as “independent”. The NATO member country cited intelligence sources monitoring movements on the ground: “According to the information at my disposal, Putin is moving additional forces and tanks into the occupied Donbas territories,” Latvian Prime Minister Arturs Krišjānis Kariņš told CNN on Wednesday. “By any definition that’s a crossing of a sovereign territory into a neighboring country.”

The Latvian PM confirmed that additional troops continue pouring in to the separatist Donetsk and Luhansk republics: “According to the information at my disposal, this is exactly what we’re seeing,” he underscored.

His words follow Biden the day prior stating that this marks “the beginning of a Russian invasion” – after there’s been some level of confusion over just how the administration is defining “invasion of Ukraine”. Despite strong rhetoric, Biden’s relatively weak and very limited sanctions announced Tuesday do not actually suggest Washington really sees what’s happened so far as in truth an “invasion”. 

Widely circulating social media videos – while unconfirmed – seem to also point to additional tanks and troops moving into the breakaway republics. The Kremlin is borrowing from the West’s “humanitarian intervention” playbook and calling these “peacekeeping” forces. 

Meanwhile, there are fresh reports Wednesday coming from the United States and “five eyes” intelligence sharing partner Australia. According to CNN the Biden White House is once again warning Kiev of an “imminent” Russian invasion: 

The United States has issued a new warning to the Ukrainian government that the latest intelligence points to a full-scale Russian invasion imminently, according to Ukrainian, US and Western officials familiar with the matter.  

The new warning was conveyed on Tuesday morning local Kyiv time, according to three of the sources.

But then there’s this crucial and perhaps ironic follow-up line in the report: “A senior Ukrainian official said Ukraine has not verified the intelligence and noted that the United States has issued similar warnings before for assaults that ultimately did not materialize.”

Australia too is warning of an full-scale assault by Russia in the next “24 to 48 hours”:

ASPI’s Peter Jennings says around 24 to 48 hours, we might see a “much larger scale invasion” of Ukraine by Russia after Moscow’s “peacekeeper” troops crossed the border.

“I would say in the next 24 to 48 hours we might actually see a much larger scale invasion, possibly even targeted against the capital Kyiv,” Mr Jennings told Sky News host Chris Smith.

“That would be frankly the most serious military conflict that Europe would have seen since the end of the Second World War.”

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-0&features=eyJ0ZndfZXhwZXJpbWVudHNfY29va2llX2V4cGlyYXRpb24iOnsiYnVja2V0IjoxMjA5NjAwLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X2hvcml6b25fdHdlZXRfZW1iZWRfOTU1NSI6eyJidWNrZXQiOiJodGUiLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X3NwYWNlX2NhcmQiOnsiYnVja2V0Ijoib2ZmIiwidmVyc2lvbiI6bnVsbH19&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1496494476298174471&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fgeopolitical%2Flatvia-says-more-russian-tanks-entering-donbas-australia-warns-large-scale-invasion-24&sessionId=1a363acb28ed192145f99d6ae2524eefd7cc4b63&siteScreenName=zerohedge&theme=light&widgetsVersion=2582c61%3A1645036219416&width=550px

Indeed the Kremlin is still loudly rejecting the accusations. Additionally top Ukraine officials have confirmed Wednesday “there are no plans” for the evacuation of Kiev or other large Ukrainian cities. 

Such time specific warnings have thus far been proven wrong over and over again; however, Moscow’s intentions remain anything but clear and the region is on edge, with the West watching every small development for signs that a full offensive is coming.

end

Biden now sanctions the individuals (corporation) behind Nordstream 2

Biden Reverses Nord Stream 2 Pipeline Waiver, Reverts To Trump’s Sanction Policy

WEDNESDAY, FEB 23, 2022 – 01:56 PM

Update (1110ET): As expected (and detailed below), the Biden administration has decided to reverse last year’s decision to waive sanctions on the corporate entity and CEO behind the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, reverting to former President Trump’s sanctions policy on the critical pipeline.

Full Statement from The White House

Since Russia began deploying troops to the Ukrainian border, the United States has worked closely with our Allies and partners to deliver a strong, unified response. As I said when I met with Chancellor Scholz earlier this month, Germany has been a leader in that effort, and we have closely coordinated our efforts to stop the Nord Stream 2 pipeline if Russia further invaded Ukraine.

Yesterday, after further close consultations between our two governments, Germany announced that it would halt certification of the pipeline. Today, I have directed my administration to impose sanctions on Nord Stream 2 AG and its corporate officers. These steps are another piece of our initial tranche of sanctions in response to Russia’s actions in Ukraine. As I have made clear, we will not hesitate to take further steps if Russia continues to escalate.

Through his actions, President Putin has provided the world with an overwhelming incentive to move away from Russian gas and to other forms of energy. I want to thank Chancellor Scholz for his close partnership and continued dedication to holding Russia accountable for its actions.

So wait – Putin is now encouraging the world to move into renewables? Ask the Germans how that went during the winter?!!

Coincidentally, within minutes of the decision, Sen. Ted Cruz lifted his hold on several Biden nominees, stating that:

“President Biden made the right decision today. Allowing Putin’s Nord Stream 2 to come online would have created multiple, cascading, and acute security crises for the United States and our European allies for generations to come,” Cruz said in a statement.

“Today’s announcement is critical to preventing such scenarios.”

Bear in mind that German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said earlier that any suspension was temporary.

*  *  *

President Biden on Wednesday is expected to announce his admin will reverse course on a controversial sanctions waiver for Western companies engaged in the building and maintenance of the Nord Stream 2 Russia-to-Germany natural gas pipeline. Biden came under severe bipartisan criticism for “going soft” on Russia when he issued the waiver in May of last year while seeking to “mend ties” with Europe. It was under Trump that US sanctions took effect on companies overseeing NS2, including the CEO of Nord Stream 2 AG.

“The Biden admin is expected to announce today that it will allow sanctions to move forward on the company in charge of building Russia’s Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, Nord Stream 2 AG, and its CEO after blocking such sanctions last year using a national security waiver,” White House CNN correspondent Natasha Bertrand was the first to report.

CNN details that “The move, described by three US officials, is part of a series of penalties the US and its allies have imposed on Russia this week in response to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s recognition of separatist territories in eastern Ukraine as independent.”

The whole impetus behind the Biden admin’s pipeline waiver was to avoid punishing the German side of the project while seeking to inflict pain on the Russia side, and thus slowing down completion. Central to this was holding off sanctions against German CEO Matthias Warnig personally.

But now these appear back on, after the White House vowed to stop NS2 – even as Berlin has also signaled its previously announced halt to the certification process might not be permanent. It seems now Washington is seeking to make it permanent, bringing full pressure to bear, with possibly more action against the pipeline to come. 

Berlin said the halt in regulatory approval “does not mean it will never go into operation,” according to the latest words of German Economy Minister Robert Habeck. But he also somewhat dubiously sought to assure the public and Western allies: “The possibility that Germany gets enough gas and enough resources beyond Russian gas imports is there and should be further expanded,” according to an interview with Deutschlandfunk.

Meanwhile, the war drums continue beating as fresh intelligence claims out of the US are warning a broader Russian invasion of Ukraine is “imminent”. 

end

Special thanks for the following important comments and emails from Robert H for us on the Ukraine vs Russia saga

Reasonable assessment

Inbox

Robert Hryniak	3:28 PM (52 minutes ago)
to

end

The Rage X – Conflict News on Twitter: “ Armored column of the People’s Militia of the DPR. https://t.co/yyz8KJVYSt” / Twitter

Inbox

Robert Hryniak	4:33 PM (0 minutes ago)
to Harvey

Headed towards Mauripol

https://twitter.com/chi_un_lee/status/149591401938286182

Chi Lee on Twitter: “Let’s not forget forget this  https://t.co/IH6SZ94H0z” / Twitter

Inbox

Robert Hryniak	3:50 PM (33 minutes ago)
to

Certain politicians have used Ukraine extensively to enrich themselves.

https://twitter.com/chi_un_lee/status/1495914019382861824

end

Iran/Israel/USA

Name one foreign policy that Biden has done good?

(zerohedge)

US Rejects Israeli PM’s Criticism Of Iran Nuclear Talks As Deal “A Few Days” Away

WEDNESDAY, FEB 23, 2022 – 03:45 PM

Authored by Jason Ditz via AntiWar.com,

Few things are more predictable than Israeli officials taking time out of their busy schedule to complain about Iran, with Prime Minister Naftali Bennett going in hard in condemning Iran’s nuclear talks lately.

Those talks are making progress expected to result in a deal, however, and likely anticipating a new salvo of Israeli comments, the State Department is criticizing Bennett’s comments, saying that coordination would be the best way to achieve their mutual goals.

“We cannot make the same mistake another time and put off another opportunity for diplomatic progress,” a Biden admin spokesperson said in response to Israeli criticism. The reference to “same mistake” was to Trump’s 2018 move to unilaterally pull the United States out of the JCPOA nuclear deal.

“We believe that diplomacy, alongside coordination with our allies in the region, is the best way to achieve our goal,” the official added. “We will not respond in the media about details from the talks.”

Officials say they are in contact with Israel on a daily basis, consulting on the process. Israeli officials are playing up the idea that the deal is regionally dangerous.

This as Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian said Wednesday he hopes a revived deal can be reached with world powers in Vienna in the “next few days”. 

According to The Times of Israel, the Israeli PM’s latest lashing out is a sign that a deal really is on the cusp of completion:

In a speech Sunday to the Conference of Presidents of the Major American Jewish Organizations, Bennett said that the emerging Iran deal will “likely create a more violent, more volatile Middle East,” said Iran would use freed-up assets to target Israel, and vowed that Israel “won’t accept Iran as a nuclear threshold state.”

US interest would be in Israel keeping its mouth shut on the matter, when Israel has made harping on about Iran the core of its public narrative, and seems unlikely to be even grudgingly accepting of the recovery of the deal.

end

6// GLOBAL COVID ISSUES/VACCINE MANDATE ISSUES/

CORONAVIRUS/UPDATE/VACCINE MANDATE/EMERGENCY ACT/CANADA

CANADA/CONVOY/EMERGENCY MEASURES ACT

Trudeau Revokes Emergency Powers Act

WEDNESDAY, FEB 23, 2022 – 04:01 PM

Watch live:

And here, he says he’s ‘confident that existing laws and bylaws are now sufficient to keep people safe.’

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-0&features=eyJ0ZndfZXhwZXJpbWVudHNfY29va2llX2V4cGlyYXRpb24iOnsiYnVja2V0IjoxMjA5NjAwLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X2hvcml6b25fdHdlZXRfZW1iZWRfOTU1NSI6eyJidWNrZXQiOiJodGUiLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X3NwYWNlX2NhcmQiOnsiYnVja2V0Ijoib2ZmIiwidmVyc2lvbiI6bnVsbH19&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1496594263773224972&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fgeopolitical%2Ftrudeau-set-revoke-emergency-powers-report&sessionId=d8d326b4c407a513e3ca644df9d0a06b89d79558&siteScreenName=zerohedge&theme=light&widgetsVersion=2582c61%3A1645036219416&width=550px

Two days after Canadian lawmakers voted to extend emergency powers allowing police to quell potential unrest, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is now set to revoke them now that the Ottawa protest is over, according to the Canadian Press, citing two senior government sources.

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-1&features=eyJ0ZndfZXhwZXJpbWVudHNfY29va2llX2V4cGlyYXRpb24iOnsiYnVja2V0IjoxMjA5NjAwLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X2hvcml6b25fdHdlZXRfZW1iZWRfOTU1NSI6eyJidWNrZXQiOiJodGUiLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X3NwYWNlX2NhcmQiOnsiYnVja2V0Ijoib2ZmIiwidmVyc2lvbiI6bnVsbH19&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1496587407310864390&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fgeopolitical%2Ftrudeau-set-revoke-emergency-powers-report&sessionId=d8d326b4c407a513e3ca644df9d0a06b89d79558&siteScreenName=zerohedge&theme=light&widgetsVersion=2582c61%3A1645036219416&width=550px

Trudeau invoked the Emergencies Act for the first time last week, saying police required additional support to end blockades.

We assume that bank accounts of Freedom Convoy supporters are still subject to being frozen.

Canadian Lawmaker Claims Single Mom Had Bank Account Frozen After Donating $50 To Freedom Convoy

Quite a case:  a single mom with a minimum wage donated 50$ and then had their ban account frozen .

(Roberts EpochTimes)

TUESDAY, FEB 22, 2022 – 03:28 PM

Authored by Katabella Roberts via The Epoch Times,

Canadian politician Mark Strahl on Feb. 20 claimed that a single mom with a minimum wage job had her bank account frozen after she “legally” donated $50 to the Freedom Convoy.

Strahl, a Conservative, took to Twitter to criticize Prime Minister Justin Trudeau for the Emergencies Act, which was invoked for the first time in Canada’s history to address the impact of the ongoing protests against COVID-19 mandates and restrictions by truckers and their supporters.

“Briane is a single mom from Chilliwack working a minimum wage job,” Strahl wrote on Twitter on Feb. 20.

“She gave $50 to the convoy when it was 100% legal. She hasn’t participated in any other way. Her bank account has now been frozen. This is who Justin Trudeau is actually targeting with his Emergencies Act orders.”

Strahl was soon pressed by other Twitter users to provide further details and verification regarding his claims about the single mother and her allegedly frozen bank account.

However, the Chilliwack-Hope MP refused to do so, stating that he did not want to publish identifying information about the woman online that could be used with malicious intent.

“Thank you to those who have read this and offered to help someone you’ve never met,” he wrote in a second post.

“Shame on those who have read it and attacked someone you’ve never met. I will keep working with Briane to resolve this matter with her bank and will provide updates as they are made available.”

He added, “To those of you, especially the media, demanding more details on Briane, having seen what has been said about her online today and what has been done to other convoy donors in the last weeks I am not going to help you dox her. I know who she is and I won’t stop fighting for her.”

A police officer smashes a truck window as police deploy to remove protesters in Ottawa on Feb. 19, 2022. (Dave Chan/AFP via Getty Images)

In a statement on Feb. 21, the Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP) said account-freezing powers under the Emergency Economic Measures Order (Emergencies Act), pertained to “individuals who were influencers in the illegal protest in Ottawa, and owners and/or drivers of vehicles who did not want to leave the area impacted by the protest.”

“At no time, did we provide a list of donors to financial institutions,” RCMP said.

“We are now working with the banks to build a process to address the accounts that were frozen,” RCMP added.

Mike Duheme, RCMP deputy commissioner of federal policing, announced on Feb. 20 that police had frozen 206 financial products, including bank and corporate accounts, of individuals and companies allegedly involved in the ongoing protests in Ottawa.

Duheme said at a news conference that the RCMP had also disclosed the information of 56 entities associated with vehicles, individuals, and companies. Officials also shared 253 bitcoin addresses with virtual currency exchanges, and froze a payment processing account valued at $3.8 million, Duheme said.

The RCMP has not said what will happen to the money that has been frozen by financial institutions or indicated that those who donated money to the Freedom Convoy were included.

“We continue to work at collecting relevant information on persons, vehicles, and companies and remain in daily communication with the financial institutions to assist them,” Duheme told reporters.

However, at a press briefing on Feb. 21, Trudeau was asked if regular individuals making donations to support the Freedom Convoy were having their bank accounts frozen, to which he responded that “the measures we put in place are designed and focused on ensuring the people in the current illegal occupations leave,” the Vancouver Sun reported.

“That has been the intent and the focus right now. If there are specific cases that Conservative ministers can bring forward to highlight where that is not the case, we would happily look at them and look to resolve them,” said Trudeau.

Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland also reiterated that the financial sanctions are aimed at targeting leaders and those who were part of illegal occupations and blockades.

“It’s important for all of us to be very, very careful to get our facts exactly right in each circumstance, and I would urge all of us to take that care in every situation,” she said.

“The RCMP has given to the financial institutions names of leaders and organizers of the protests and of people whose trucks were part of occupations and blockades. That is the only information given, according to the RCMP, that the RCMP has given to financial institutions.”

The Epoch Times has contacted the Royal Canadian Mounted Police and Mark Strahl for comment.

END

USA/CONVOY FREEDOM

USA Convy Freedom on the move while the DC national guard is called up. They are trying to secure tow trucks

(zerohedge)

DC National Guard ‘Scrambling’ To Secure Tow Trucks As Freedom Convoy Descends

TUESDAY, FEB 22, 2022 – 02:25 PM

The Washington DC National Guard is ratcheting up preparations “for forthcoming Trucker protest” set to begin on Tuesday, as a new group of roughly 1,000 truckers dubbed “The People’s Convoy” makes its way to the nation’s capital in protest of Covid-19 mandates.

According to a notice obtained by Breitbart News, the DC National Guard Land Component Command will be “encamped” starting today – which, according to on source, is synonymous with to “occupy an area.”

According to the notice, the National Guard will encamp through Monday, March 7. The notice stated that soldiers were already on standby to support the State of the Union address, which is scheduled for March 1.

A separate notice stated that the encampment could last longer than March 7, and would be in support of the D.C. Homeland Security and Emergency Management Agency and the Metropolitan Police Department (MPD). -Breitbart

Fox News‘ Brad Pergram reported earlier Tuesday that the National Guard is now “scrambling to secure heavy tow trucks to haul away semis which may try to block roads.”

Pergram earlier cited Rep. Beyer (D-VA) suggesting that a convoy in DC would be a “disaster and very unwelcome,” (by Democrats?) adding “I don’t know anybody who lives in metropolitan Washington who would want to be part of something like this.” 

On Friday, the US Capitol Police (USCP) issued a press release that said they’re “closely coordinating” with entities which include the DC National Guard ahead of the expected convoy. 

The press release said:

‘Law enforcement agencies across the National Capital Region are aware of plans for a series of truck convoys arriving in Washington, DC around the time of the State of the Union. As with any demonstration, the USCP will facilitate lawful First Amendment activity. The USCP is closely coordinating with local, state and federal law enforcement agencies, including DC’s Metropolitan Police Department, the United States Park Police, the United States Secret Service and other allied agencies to include the DC National Guard.’ – The United States Capitol Police

—–UPDATE—–

Here is additional information to address numerous inquiries we have received this evening:

‘The United States Capitol Police and the United States Secret Service have been closely working together to plan for the upcoming State of the Union. The temporary inner-perimeter fence is part of those ongoing discussions and remains an option, however at this time no decision has been made.’ – The United States Capitol Police

No word on how many protesters USCP plans on shooting.

CANADA/CONVOY/EMERGENCY MEASURES ACT

VACCINE INJURIES/DEATH

Pathologist connected vax and deaths to tennage boys

Inbox

Milan Sabioncello	9:45 PM (1 hour ago)
to me

Autopsies Show: Vaccinating Teens for COVID Is Literally ‘Heartbreaking’

GLOBAL  ISSUES//INFLATION/STAGLATION

Mises comments on how inflation will turn first to stagflation and if the consumer goes nuts: hyperinfaltion

(St Onge/Mises)

Will Inflation Turn Into Stagflation?

WEDNESDAY, FEB 23, 2022 – 06:30 AM

Authored by Peter St. Onge via The Mises Institute,

Will inflation turn into stagflation? With inflation hitting 40-year highs, it’s the question of the hour.

Currently, Wall Street and the Fed are saying no, forecasting a respectable 3.7% real for 2022, 2.7% for 2023, and 2.3% for 2024. These aren’t epic prints, but they’re also nowhere near recession.

Of course, that same dream team of Wall Street and Fed missed inflation to an epic degree last year: in mid-October of 2021 the Wall Street Journal’s survey of economists were predicting 5.25% inflation by December—just two months later. Actual CPI in December was an annualized 9.5%, and it was 7.1% on a year-on-year basis. That’s pretty embarrassing for a two-month prediction of a large aggregate like inflation.

Incidentally, in that same survey the median economist predicted supply chains will be cleared by June this year—just 4 months to go. So we’ll see if they’re similarly deluded or, like the prodigal monkey throwing darts, they get one right.

So are the monkeys right on growth? Or, like “transitory inflation,” will they again throw what monkeys normally throw?

Noisy Data, Noisy Policy

The problem so far is the data is so noisy from Covid disruptions: if governments impose, then remove, then reimpose measures according to the latest opinion poll, they have a lot of trouble statistically adjusting. Still, Covid disruptions are gradually getting smaller, meaning we’re starting to get a picture of what the underlying economy looks like. As Warren Buffett famously put it, “When the tide goes out, we see who’s swimming without a suit.” Covid restrictions are, increasingly, a tide going out. So now we see what’s left.

In short, it’s not pretty. The Atlanta Fed does a nearly real-time evaluation of GDP, and they’re saying it’s now at 0.7% real. That’s about US population growth, meaning the economy is, at the moment, at a standstill. Also known as stagnation.

Meanwhile, of course, inflation continues surprising on the upside—well, surprising Wall Street and the Fed, not necessarily surprising many of us—coming in last month at an annualized 8.0% for the month—a flaming 7.5% year-on-year.

Put those two together and you get stagflation—rising prices while the economy stagnates.

According to Atlanta Fed, we’re already there. So will it continue?

I’ll briefly run through what I think are the threats to growth, and what I think are the odds that we whistle past the graveyard and go back to decent growth, with or without inflation. Or, on the other hand, the bearish case where the economy crashes into a repeat of the 1970’s: soaring prices, scarce jobs, dystopian cities, and national decline.

The Bear Case

The two best ways for a government to crash an economy are regulations and taxes. Both suppress growth year-in-year-out, but to really spark a crash one or both have to get much worse, ideally all of a sudden.

At the moment, major tax hikes are off the table for the foreseeable future. This is because Biden and Congressional Dems are unpopular and have a razor-thin majority, while DC consensus is the GOP will retake Congress in 2022, putting an end to Biden’s handlers’ tax-hiking dreams.

Of course, some states are already trying to hike taxes, like California, but states can only hike so much before companies flee. Indeed, with so many upper-income workers now location-independent thanks to those same Covid lockdowns, states like California could see something new: thousands of six-figure families fleeing all the way to Arizona, Texas, or Florida.

So, given those constraints, I don’t think taxes crash us unless Americans wake up one morning and decide they quite like Joe Biden after all. I’ll let you run those odds.

What is, however, quite threatening is regulations. 1970’s-style regulation increases are, like taxes, neutered by Biden’s unpopularity and Congress’ razor-thin majority. But there is still a lot of damage that can come from Biden’s Executive Orders (EO’s). If you’re not American, or if you have a healthy disinterest in DC, in the US system EO’s are wide-ranging powers a President has to impose a variety of mandates and restrictions across the economy. Trump enthusiastically used these to minimize economic harm, and Biden’s handlers could just as enthusiastically use them to maximize economic harm.

Now, we haven’t heard much on EO’s yet, since they take time to comply with administrative rules so they stick. But there’s a whole parade of them coming down the pike. I’ve written recently on one batch attacking crypto, and others targeting financial markets could catastrophically handicap growth. All with more to come—we got Biden for another 3 years.

A Great Deal of Ruin

So, yes, there are threats. But it’s important to zoom out and remember America is not the government alone—there’s 300 million of us out there, building, creating, hustling to route around the damage of government policy.

This is nicely captured in Adam Smith’s famous response to a colleague panicked about policy: “My boy, there is a great deal of ruin in a country.” Policies always look horrible way out at sea, but we the people usually manage to whittle them into little waves by the time they get to shore. Not every policy—the 1970’s did happen—but most of the time.

This means even a constant series of new EO’s are up against the world-moving day-in day-out hard work of those 300 million Americans the bureaucrats and politicians are trying to destroy. I recently saw a TV show where the local government closed the bridge a logger needed, and his response was to refloat a sunken barge, plug it using $10 in toilet wax, and float the logs. Multiply that by 300 million and Washington’s up against an army—many armies—when it’s trying to crash our economy.

To illustrate the power of this People’s Army, even the 1970’s—the worst policy failure in a lifetime—real GDP growth plunged, yes, but it plunged from 4.5% in the 1960’s to 3.2% in the 1970’s—a one-third drop. That one-third drop meant millions unemployed and cities collapsing, to be sure, but it also didn’t mean we were eating house cats and fortifying gas stations with heavy crossbows. They destroy, we build, and there are more of us than them.

Now, anything’s possible, and threats to the real economy could conceivably soar if Washington agrees on some sufficiently stupid scheme. But given the distinct unpopularity of both Biden and Congress, I think the standard tax-and-regulation disaster scenarios are unlikely. Instead, we continue limping along with the lousy but non-catastrophic policies we have.

Conclusion

Policy suggests we won’t necessarily bounce back—existing taxes, regulations, and handouts are keeping production muted, dragging out supply chain adjustments, and the idiots in Washington will likely continue both. But I don’t think the odds of a policy-induced crash are high. It’s too soon to bet on them as an investor and, anyway, your investments shouldn’t be based on economic growth—prepare for the worst, but bet on the most likely.

Final point, this all comes with a huge caveat: the Federal Reserve. The Fed’s pace of money creation since Covid has been unprecedented, while the Fed itself increasingly admits its models are blind—for which it blames Covid. Put these together and the Fed is, effectively, a car driving at night, very fast, with no headlights. That is a real threat, probably to an unprecedented degree. 

END

Vaccine Impact

Michael Every

on the major topics of the day

Michael Every…

Rabobank: “We Will Soon Find Out If Russia Is Going To Blink”

WEDNESDAY, FEB 23, 2022 – 10:44 AM

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Last off-ramp or ramp-up?

Markets are filled with inveterate optimists. (For the record, I define myself as an optimist wrapped in a pessimist: my wife would add, Churchill fashion, “inside a nudnik”). If you are an economist, “things mean revert” or are “all about GDP”; as such, bad things don’t happen or don’t last. Just don’t mention that they don’t mean revert, or ask about how ISIS sees GDP, for example. If you are on the sell-side, you have to sell – we all have to eat. If you are on the buy side, you want markets higher – because you have to eat wagyu. If you are a financial journalist, you want market readers – and the opposite of the mainstream press “if it bleeds, it leads” mantra rules. As such, it was no surprise yesterday that markets tried to do exactly what I had flagged they would – retreated to their next strategic line of denial that “this is not a proper invasion of Ukraine proper”, and then that “these are not proper sanctions”.

To be fair, there was a slim hope that we still had a last off-ramp. Western sanctions were, with the surprising exception of Germany pausing NordStream 2, milquetoast. They will see Russian oligarchs move yachts around, and cash, but they will not stop a Russian war machine rolling. They don’t hit SWIFT, or key Russian banks, or energy, grains, fertilizer, or metals – so most Russian exports. And they hit very few things on the import side. Some also posited that perhaps President Putin could claim reinvading what he had already invaded once was a win and just sit there, grumpily; the West could sit on its weak sanctions, smugly; and then markets could ramp up again, rampily,… because maybe the Fed wouldn’t have to do as much too. Win, win, win!

Yet then Putin underlined ‘Minsk is dead’, so there is no peace process to pretend to stick to; that his two new “republics” officially claim the larger territory of the two Ukrainian oblasts (regions) which they were carved out of – which the FT notes on Twitter “is as close as you can get to declaring war”; and that Kyiv must declare neutrality and that it won’t join NATO, hand over Crimea officially, and the newly-claimed oblasts…or, the implication was, war looms.

US President Biden declared Russia’s recent actions against Ukraine mark the “beginning of an invasion.” Not implied or imminent, but actual. True, US sanctions again deliberately missed the real targets, aiming again at sovereign debt, for example, in an economy running a budget surplus; and Biden offered a hope that diplomacy can still prevail even at this late stage. But this *is* an invasion now, officially.

Kyiv of course refused to acquiesce to Moscow. The country’s defence minister, until now a calm voice, stated Plan A was diplomacy to avert war, but if that fails, “Plan B is to fight for every inch of our land and every city and every village. To fight until we win, of course.” Ukrainian President Zelenskiy stated “Ukrainians are a peaceful nation. But if we remain silent today, we will disappear tomorrow. Self-confidence. Confidence in the country. Confidence in victory.“ He then mobilised army civilian reserves, one step away from full conscription of the population that would shut down much of the civilian economy, and introduced new economic measures to encourage local production, assuredly with war in mind.  

Last night Asia time, Russian forces were already shelling a power plant in Ukrainian held Luhansk: this morning there were reports of a massive explosion heard in Russian-held Donetsk; and US Secretary of State Blinken’s proposed meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov was cancelled.    In short, we will soon find out if Russia is going to blink, and we do have that off-ramp, or if we just passed our last opportunity for markets to ramp up.

Why wouldn’t Russia pause to see if it can get by threat of force, for free, what it would otherwise have to fight for? Yet as I stressed yesterday, Russia’s maximalist demands –partition and Finlandisation– are not going to be met by Kyiv. There is no Minsk framework to stall with. If Russian demands aren’t a bluff –and why would they be?– then logically it will take war to achieve them.

Perhaps that *still* won’t see a sudden mass Russian troop move deeper into Ukraine. Yet it would be a constant economic war aimed at destabilisation; a constant attempt to wear Ukraine down; and a constant attempt to try to weary the easy-to-tire West from standing behind Kyiv to ‘just make this all go away and let markets ramp up’. Is that an off-ramp, or a long hard shoulder to bump against for months? Is Russia hypothetically parking troops in new bases in Belarus (now run by Moscow again) and in their two new “republics”, and nibbling away at the larger oblasts they want to hold? And after Putin’s Monday speech deconstructing Ukrainian history and statehood, and his defense minister’s denial of Ukrainian rights to any sovereignty, the logic is not that they want those two oblasts, but all of the ones added by Lenin in 1922. Is Russia waiting until summer, when there is no mud, and sweeping in when Europe is back to focusing on what really matters, like beach holidays? Perhaps short term, if one refuses to look ahead to such fat tail risks (if they are still tail risks)…

…but in that scenario Ukraine would be even better armed and organised, raising the costs/risks to Russia; and Kyiv’s latest actions suggest they *finally* expect something more kinetic – “imminently”. (Which was considered a taboo word there until recently.)

So, no, I am not surprised the S&P just entered correction territory despite the markets starting to price out some of the Fed hikes they had previously priced in on the back of this “geopolitics”; but US futures were trying to ramp up as usual at time of writing, assuming weak sanctions mean ‘less risk’ rather than flagging to Russia that it is low cost for them to continue moving forwards.

Meanwhile, China is watching this transpire and would also face a huge decision if the off ramp is missed. Its recent cooperation with Russia leads it towards at least tacit support for Moscow, but its deep opposition to splittists and separatists, as well as to denying the sovereignty of other states, is not something easily squared with that. So far the preferred solution is to watch its language very carefully and to call for calm and dialogue. But if shooting starts in earnest, a side will have to be chosen – ironic given it is a choice usually involving China and the US.

If China were to lean to Moscow under those circumstances it would hugely exacerbate anti-Beijing sentiment in D.C., increasing the likelihood of even more aggressive legislative action there. So, could Beijing dump Putin for at least tacit support for Biden? That seems extremely unlikely given the deepening Sino-Russian co-operation in many areas and their long shared border – and the deepening Sino-US suspicion on most fronts. However, if you want a fantastical reason to ramp up, look to that ‘Nixon’ trade – not to milquetoast Western sanctions as a warning to a Russia not yet rolling across Ukraine proper it no longer recognizes the sovereignty of.

7. OIL ISSUES

Qatar/Russia/Germany

Qatar says that it cannot replace the loss of Russian natural gas to Germany.Nobody can replace the gas to Germany.  The West will be toothless against Putin.

(zerohedge)

Qatar Says It Can’t Replace Russian Gas Supplies To Europe

TUESDAY, FEB 22, 2022 – 03:06 PM

This morning, the FT summarized well the problem facing Europe as it decides whether to unleash draconian sanctions on Russia:

“Business magazine Wirtschaftswoche encapsulated the problem with a recent cover: Vladimir Putin controls Germany the way a dealer controls a junkie. Natural gas is the drug of choice.

The shrewdness of Putin’s strategy is clear now Russian tanks are rolling. Effective sanctions would ban Russian energy exports, or payments for them via the international banking system. But that severe blow to Russia’s resource-dependent economy would badly hurt Germans. The energy policy errors of their leaders are woefully apparent.

Chancellor Olaf Scholz has only halted a second pipeline, Nord Stream 2, now that Russia is invading eastern Ukraine. This would have doubled the capacity of imports to 110bn cubic metres.

The first Nord Stream pipeline system already supplies two-thirds of Germany’s imported energy. Half Germany’s 40m households keep warm using natural gas, 97 per cent of it from overseas.

Needless to say, the underlying logic behind this strategy is not lost on the Russians, and this morning none other than Putin’s right hand man Dmitry Medvedev trolled the west, tweeting that “German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has issued an order to halt the process of certifying the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline” and gloating: “welcome to the brave new world where Europeans are very soon going to pay €2.000 for 1.000 cubic meters of natural gas!”

In immediate response, western media asked rhetorically “if such tweets will strengthen Europe’s resolve to cut its dependence on gas and oil – two resources that it lacks and constrain its `strategic autonomy’ aspirations” adding sarcastically that “some EU governments have been blaming renewables for gas prices” (and as even Goldman has noted recently, they are 100% correct to blame renewables for gas prices).

But while Europe may be living in some idealized universe where all of its energy needs can be met by LNG exports from the US, even an armada of tankers would not come anywhere near close to replacing Russian output.

The bigger problem for Europe is that even the increasingly hinted at “Plan B” would be insufficient.

As a reminder, the main reason (as even the FT conceded some time ago) behind the on again, off again western incursion into Syria and Qatar-funded attempts at revolution, had little to do with installing a democratic government, and everything to do with removing al Assad’s pro-Russia regime so that Qatar could safely pass a pipeline through Syrian territory, which would then proceed toward Europe (Putin successfully quashed this ambition). Which means that any Qatar gas sent to Europe will have to come in LNG format, carried by ships (see “Biden Officials Talking to Qatar About Supplying Gas to Europe“).

To Europe’s chagrin, even Qatar is getting cold feet about such an ambitious strategy.

Speaking to reporters at a gas conference in Doha, Qatar energy minister Saad al Kaabi said that Qatar wants to meet European Union requests for additional supplies of liquefied natural gas, but that most of its exports are already tied to long-term contracts.

“Qatar is very clear about the sanctity of contracts,” Kaabi said, noting that “We are known for being strict and sticking to contracts through thick and thin.”

And while “European buyers have asked us for additional volumes” he warned that “we have said we will help but most of our LNG is tied up in long-term contracts.”

Kaabi said he spoke with EU Energy Commissioner, Kadri Simson, “a few weeks back about more supply”, but conceded that only about 10-15% of Qatar’s LNG contracts – most of which are with Asian countries – can be diverted elsewhere.

Qatar’s bottom line: “no country can replace Russian supply to Europe” and that is music to Putin’s ears, because having grasped long ago that no matter what he does, there is little Europe can counter unless the continent also wishes to effect economic suicide, the Russian president just called the Western bluff which warned day after day about “devastating sanctions.”

It’s also why for all the jawboning fire and brimstone, Europe’s sanctions will be quite toothless, something we already saw today when the EU and UK unveiled a list of five banks that would be sanctioned: the surprise – Sberbank and VTB, Russia’s two largest state banks, will not be included in the list.

Almost as if Europe is terrified of pursuing sanctions that are too harsh in response to Putin’s “minor incursion” “invasion”.

end

 

8 EMERGING MARKET& AUSTRALIA ISSUES

Australia////  NEW ZEALAND/ SOUTH AFRICA/BRAZIL//COVID/VACCINES/LOCKDOWNS

END

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings WEDNESDAY morning 7:30 AM

Euro/USA 1.1339 UP .0009 /EUROPE BOURSES //ALL GREEN    

USA/ YEN 115.1  UP  0.16 /NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.3586  DOWN   0.0001

 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 33.00 PTS OR 0.93%

 Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 140.28 PTS OR 0.60%

AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.70%   // EUROPEAN BOURSES OPENED ALL GREEN  

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN    

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG  CLOSED DOWN 140,28 PTS OR 0.60%

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 32.00 PTS OR 0.93%

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.70%

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED HOLIDAY

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1897.00

silver:$24.16-

USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 95.92  DOWN 10  CENT(S) from TUESDAY’s close.

THIS ENDS WEDNESDAY MORNING NUMBERS

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And now your closing WEDNESDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.14%  DOWN 1  in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.198%  DOWN 0 AND 0/10   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.26%// DOWN 2   in basis points yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 1.94 UP 0    points in basis points yield from yesterday./

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 68 points higher than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO +0.228% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.71% AND NOW ABOVE   THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR WEDNESDAY  

Closing currency crosses for WEDNESDAY /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1315  UP .0015    or 15 basis points

USA/Japan: 115.08 UP 0.013 OR YEN DOWN 2  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3549 DOWN 39  BASIS POINTS

Canadian dollar UP 37 pts to 1.2730

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The USA/Yuan,  CNY: closed    ON SHORE  (CLOSED )..UP 6.3137  

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN CLOSED (UP)..6.3150

TURKISH LIRA:  13.82  EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.198

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 1  IN basis points from FRIDAY at  1.969% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

 USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.260 UP 1 in basis points 

Your closing USA dollar index, 96.13  UP 10   CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for TUESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 4.44 PTS OR 0.96%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 61.64 points or 0.42%

Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 7.98PTS OR 0.12% 

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 58.60PTS OR 0.67%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 81.07 PTS OR 0.31%

WTI Oil price 92.52    12: EST

Brent Oil:  97.19  12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE FALLS:   80.91 DOWN   2.09 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE LOWER BY 209  BASIS PTS)

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +.228

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 1.1301 DOWN  .0027   OR 27 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.3539 DOWN  .0048 or 48 basis pts

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 115.02 DOWN .085

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.2742 DOWN .0025 (CDN dollar DOUP 25 basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 91.93

Brent: 96.43

USA 10 yr bond yield: 1.939 UP 3 points

USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.277  UP 4  pts

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 13.82

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIAN ROUBLE:  81.05 UP 222 BASIS PTS (ROUBLE DOWN 222 PTS)//

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE DOWN 464.84 PTS OR 1.38%

NASDAQ 100 DOWN361.10 PTS OR 2.60%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 31.02 PTS UP 2.21 OR 7.67%

GLD: $178.29 UP $.80 OR 0.45%

SLV: $22.73 UP $.42 OR 1.88%

end)

USA trading day in Graph Form

Commodities Soar As Ruble Routed, Tech Wrecked, & S&P Enters Correction

WEDNESDAY, FEB 23, 2022 – 04:00 PM

Nasdaq is now down 5 straight days (and S&P down 4 straight) with today’s reflexive BTFD overnight gains (Nasdaq was up 1.5% pre-open and ended down 2.5%) evaporating as various headlines hit – all escalating tensions…

Nasdaq is down 3.5% from last Friday’s (pre-Putin) close leading the rest of the majors lower. Notice that each time the algos tried to get us back to even from pre-Putin, a wave of selling hit…

S&P in correction (down over 10% from its highs) and Small Caps – Russell 2000 – is in a bear market once again (down 20% from its highs)…

Source: Bloomberg

In a more shocking context, the Russell 2000 has given up all of 2021’s gains (now down 1.4% from 12/31/20) and Nasdaq Composite is up only 1% from the end of 2020…

Source: Bloomberg

Mega-cap Tech, the FAAMG+T complex is now down almost 15% ytd with FB down 40%, TSLA down 25%, and MSFT down 15%.

Source: Bloomberg

Just a ‘fleshwound’ right?

S&P Breadth continues to weaken…

Source: Bloomberg

And Nasdaq breadth is a bloodbath!! The last time just 25% of Nasdaq companies traded above the 200DMA, the Nasdaq was 30% lower…

Source: Bloomberg

US corporate credit risk continues to surge…

Source: Bloomberg

Weakness in stocks… and bonds.. has sent Risk Parity funds plunging (which may help explain some of the decoupling between VIX and credit risk)

Bonds were also sold today interestingly with yields higher across the board with the long-end underperforming (2Y +2bps, 30Y +5bps)…

Source: Bloomberg

Rate-hike odds continue to hawkishly rise (40% odds of a 50bps hike in March and 50% odds of 7 rate-hikes this year)…

Source: Bloomberg

2Y Breakevens – forward inflation expectations – surged to a new record high today…

Source: Bloomberg

Which is interesting since that 2Y fwd period is when The Fed is expected to fold on its rate-hiking cycle and start cutting rates…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar ended basically unchanged after a whipsaw day testing the recent range…

Source: Bloomberg

The Ruble was clubbed like a baby seal to over 81/USD – a new record low against the dollar…

Source: Bloomberg

And Russian CDS spiked further…

Source: Bloomberg

And Russian stocks (this is VanEck Russia ETF) is down almost 45% from its highs…

Crypto see-sawed today with Bitcoin rallying back aboive $39k early on then selling back to $37,500 through the US session…

Source: Bloomberg

Commodities, broadly speaking, surged to fresh cycle highs again today…

Source: Bloomberg

Once again, gold was pressured lower into Europe’s open, back below $1900, but buyers emerged as Ukraine-Russia-US headlines hit,,,

Precious Metals have been soaring this year – and accelerated in the last week or so as tensions with Russia escalated. Palladium and Platinum are leading the way…

Source: Bloomberg

WTI dipped very modestly on the day (after tagging $94 intraday)…

This is not going to help pump prices…

Source: Bloomberg

Brent crude’s premium to U.S. oil futures hasn’t been this big since the early days of the pandemic. The spread strengthened to nearly $5 a barrel on Wednesday as tensions between the West and Russia ratchet up over Ukraine. As Bloomberg notes, traders say the likelihood of disruptions to energy supplies in Europe has lent more support to Brent than West Texas Intermediate, while production growth and seasonal refinery maintenance have also kept a lid on gains for the U.S. oil benchmark.

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, noticeably absent from the volatility catalysts recently is the virus…

Source: Bloomberg

As Goldman notes, while concerns about Ukraine, inflation, and valuation may be real, they also may be eventually offset by the positive force on earnings growth from a continuing reopening of the global economy.

“Hedge” they said! “What could go wrong” they argued…

Since early 2021 our Hedge Fund VIP basket has lagged the S&P 500 by 21 pp, the worst 12-month stretch in the basket’s 20-year history. YTD the basket has returned -12% vs. -9% for the S&P 500.

I) /MORNING TRADING/

Stocks Tumble As Ukraine Reports Major Cyberattack, Multiple Ministry Websites Down

WEDNESDAY, FEB 23, 2022 – 10:19 AM

Stocks have reversed all earlier gains, and have tumbled into the red after an alarming Ukraine government statement claimed that a major cyberattack in progress, leaving some wondering: is this the prelude to invasion?

Currently the official websites for Ukrainian parliament, multiple government and foreign ministry websites – including the Ministry of Internal Affairs – are down. 

NetBlocks and Bloomberg confirmed the outages.

The “Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Ministry of Defense, Ministry of Internal Affairs, the Security Service of Ukraine and Cabinet of Ministers websites have just been impacted by network disruptions; the incident appears consistent with recent DDOS attacks,” the global internet monitoring site said.

“Several Ukrainian government websites including those of the Cabinet of Ministers and the parliament suffered cyberattacks Wednesday, according to news agency Interfax,” Bloomberg writes.

Markets were rattled on the news…

… with oil surging to session highs…

… and the ruble tumbling

developing…

END

AFTERNOON

END

II) USA DATA

Not good!

(zerohedge)

Mortgage Applications Collapse Most Since March 2020 COVID Crisis

WEDNESDAY, FEB 23, 2022 – 01:08 PM

Mortgage applications collapsed 13.1% week-over-week, the worst drop since the heart of the COVID lockdown crisis in March 2020…

Source: Bloomberg

As MBA reports, the Refinance Index plunged 16% from the previous week and was 56% lower than the same week one year ago.

But most notably, the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index tumbled 10% from one week earlier – after holding up for a few weeks amid rising rates. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 6 percent compared with the previous week and was 6 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

Source: Bloomberg

Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting, warned:

“Purchase applications, already constrained by elevated sales prices and tight inventory, have also been impacted by these higher rates and declined for the third straight week. While the average loan size did not increase this week, it remained close to the survey’s record high,” adding that “higher mortgage rates have quickly shut off refinances, with activity down in six of the first seven weeks of 2022. Conventional refinances in particular saw a 17 percent decrease last week.”

Source: Bloomberg

And finally, what does all this mean for the housing market? Nothing good, we are afraid.

Home price acceleration is set to slow dramatically as rates rise…

Source: Bloomberg

However, more ominously, we are seeing a pattern play out in home sales that does not look good…

Last month saw an unexpected surge in existing home sales (as mortgage rates soared), as buyers were likely anticipating further rate increases and locking-in at the low rates…

Source: Bloomberg

However, as the 2013 taper tantrum showed, this exact pattern does not end well – first the rush to lock in rates, then the collapse in home sales…

Source: Bloomberg

As Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, explained: the forthcoming increase in mortgage rates will be problematic for at least two market segments:

“First, some moderate-income buyers who barely qualified for a mortgage when interest rates were lower will now be unable to afford a mortgage,” he said.

“Second, consumers in expensive markets, such as California and the New York City metro area, will feel the sting of nearly an additional $500 to $1000 in monthly payments due to rising rates.”

The Fed has printed itself into an ugly corner.

IIb) USA COVID/VACCINE MANDATE STORIES

end

iii) USA inflation commentaries//LOG JAMS//

Electronics giant sutters Alabama’s solar factory amid rising commodity costs?

cannot get silver?

(zerohedge)

LG Electronics Shutters Alabama Solar Factory Amid “Rising Commodity Costs”

WEDNESDAY, FEB 23, 2022 – 08:36 AM

Soaring material costs, supply chain constraints, and intensified price competition are some of the reasons why LG Electronics Inc. will shutter its solar factory in Huntsville, Alabama, according to a company press release. 

“The decision comes as uncertainties in the global solar panel business continue to increase due to a variety of contributing factors, including the intensification of price competition and the rising cost of raw materials,” LG said.

Soaring commodity prices have sent solar-grade polysilicon prices up more than 550% in the last two years. Polysilicon is a critical raw material in producing solar photovoltaic cells for panels. 

Other commodity prices have risen, along with soaring labor and freight costs have added to LG’s margin compression where it appears solar production has become uneconomical. 

The plant was opened in 2019 with 550 megawatts of annual panel output. Panel production is expected to wind down next month and officially shut down at the end of June. Around 160 employees and 60 contract workers will be fired or shifted to other LG manufacturing units. 

LG’s US solar exit comes as inflationary pressures intensify higher commodity prices and increase the risk of stagflation. The inflation outlook is gloomy unless the Federal Reserve begins aggressively raising rates. Companies have had to bear some of the highest producer prices ever — crushing their margins. 

So much for President Biden’s call to tame inflation and reduce supply chain congestion; it appears “Build Back Better” crumbles ahead of midterms. 

iii) USA economic stories

END

iv)swamp stories

Deeper Analysis: Trump Transition Data Was Passed To The CIA

TUESDAY, FEB 22, 2022 – 05:00 PM

Authored by Techno Fog via The Reactionary,

Last week, we documented Special Counsel John Durham’s motion discussing the potential conflicts of interest of Michael Sussmann’s attorneys.

That filing was important for a number of reasons, mainly because Durham stated that Sussmann’s client, Rodney Joffe (a federal contractor with access to “sensitive” data) “exploited” internet traffic data (domain name system, or DNS) pertaining to “the Executive Office of the President of the United States (“EOP”).”

We also asked why Joffe and Sussmann continued to push false allegations of Trump’s ties to Russia after the election. One could theorize that they made the Trump/Russia connection in the summer and fall of 2016 to hurt Trump politically. After all, the bogus story of a secret Alfa Bank/Trump Organization back-channel made it to Slate via Franklin Foer on October 31, 2016 – just before the November 8, 2016 presidential election, and not long after Sussmann went to the FBI to relay these same allegations.

But why continue to push a Trump/Russia hoax in February 2017?

It’s within the realm of possibilities that they wanted to continue to damage Trump, as this was the general goal of the political and bureaucratic establishment during the Trump years – especially in the early period, when Trump’s political power and his ability to implement his agenda would be at its height. It’s why James Comey leaked classified memos through his lawyer, why there were leaks against Flynn in early January 2017, and why Kevin Clinesmith falsified a CIA e-mail so that the FISA warrants against Carter Page could continue.

Or, perhaps Sussmann and Joffe wanted to spur additional intelligence community investigations into Trump. It is accurate to say that they were desperate to prove Trump’s links to Russia. So desperate, in fact, that they were providing manipulated data to the federal government to further false Trump/Russia conspiracies.

And consider whether Sussmann took this information to the CIA on behalf of a type of “whistleblower,” allowing Joffe to remain nameless.

What did the CIA do with that information?

Did the CIA pass it to the FBI, allowing Joffe to theoretically keep his hands clean and his identity unknown?

All good questions. We don’t have the answers – yet.

But there is an answer we do have. After Sussmann’s attorney responded to the Durham filing, stating that Sussmann provided the CIA with Executive Office of the President data from “when Barack Obama was president,” we theorized that this data was from the transition period because that’s when there would be access to Trump’s team:

If Sussmann’s attorney is telling the truth (never a given), then we suspect the Executive Office of the President data included that from the 74 day the Trump transition period (between the November 8, 2016 election and the January 20, 2017 inauguration) – which would still be spying on the incoming Trump Administration.

Then our friend Margot Cleveland reviewed a Durham filing in the Sussmann case from October 21, 2021 and put it all together:

As the October 2021 filing states:

That would confirm the data Sussmann and Joffe passed to the CIA was from the Trump transition period. While Washington and the press focus on January 6, the more dangerous and anti-democratic acts occurred in the shadows in 2016 and 2017. They didn’t seize the Capitol because they didn’t have to. The FBI and the CIA were willing to do their bidding, operating in secret to spy on and undermine the President.

Predictably, after Durham filed his motion the establishment/left media downplayed its significance in two ways.

First, Charlie Savage of the New York Times noted that the data from the Executive Office of the President “came from Barack Obama’s presidency.” That’s a curious way of saying the transition period – especially when the data involved those associated with Trump. (The content of the data being more important than the timing of the data.)

Second, Philip Bump over at the Washington Post condemned the reaction to the Durham allegations and claimed “it’s not clear that it [the Trump Tower, Trump Apartment, Trump Transition/EOP data] was or that it was used for any reason other than normal tracking of potential threats.” To say that, Bump must ignore the political motivations of Sussmann and Joffe, and disregard the findings that these allegations they brought – whether to the FBI or the CIA – were found to be baseless.

What these writers and publications are missing, of course, is the outright scandal of the CIA collecting information on a sitting president.

Before I close, let me say a few more words about Philip Bump, a national correspondent for The Washington Post. This is the same guy who, in 2019, downplayed the theory that “biased FBI agents and other officials used faulty information to target Page to spy on the campaign.” In reality, the FBI agents were biased, the information was faulty, and the campaign was spied on.

Bump’s problems go beyond indefensible conclusions about matters of public record. His writing is just as bad, evidencing deficiency of thought. He has a rich history of blunders. These are weekly occurrences for him, though I’ll focus on just one article.

When discussing questions regarding the hacking of the DNC server, for example, Bump stated “This server thing shows one direction of sprawl, and a narrow one.” But sprawl is defined as “to spread or develop irregularly or without restraint.” We call it “suburban sprawl” because suburban developments spread in every direction (the sprawl) from an urban center. Sprawl across your bed and you leave little room for your partner. “Narrow”sprawl doesn’t make sense.

Or consider this Bump-ism when discussing some of the Carter Page allegations:

“Fox News personalities such as Hannity and his cadre of guests were simply walking backward, trying to find a hole in the wall. This is the hole they found, and they ran with it.”

Think about that last sentence for a moment. How can you run with a hole in the wall?

You can’t.

And that, my friends, is The Washington Post.

end

KING REPORT/SWAMP STORIES

 Germany suspends Nord Stream 2 pipeline over Russia invasion of Ukraine https://t.co/xONfO0Sg7W

White House declares Russian ‘invasion’ in Ukraine, says sanctions on the way
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/white-house-russian-invasion-ukraine?test=aedaf50575f19da86e2e168307f2faa4

Boris Johnson’s sanctions to punish Russia mostly target people and entities that were blacklisted years ago by the U.S.https://t.co/3I16hJSWCF

AP: Russia’s upper house gives Putin authorization to use armed forces outside the country.

@disclosetv: NATO has put more than 100 fighter jets on “high alert,” and 120 allied ships are underway in what Stoltenberg called “the most dangerous moment for European security in a generation.”

AP: Putin calls for recognition of Crimea as part of Russia, halt to weapons shipments to Ukraine, end to Ukraine’s NATO bid

The Big Guy said, “This is the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine.”  The action requires a firm response for the US and its allies.  The US will begin to impose further sanctions on Russia that will cut off Russia from Western financing and halt the Nord Stream 2 pipeline.  The US will sanction Russia debt.  If the invasion goes further, the sanctions will go further, far beyond the sanctions of 2014.
 
@ABC: Pres. Biden: “Who in the Lord’s name does Putin think gives him the right to declare new so-called ‘countries’ on territory that belonged to his neighbors? This is a flagrant violation of international law.” https://abcn.ws/3BELzJe
 Biden said the sanctions could harm Americans: “Defending freedom will have costs for us as well.”  The Big Guy said the US is monitoring global energy supplies and is working with major oil companies to ensure uninterrupted supplies.  Joey Baby took no questions, quickly bolting after reading his reading.  Transcript: https://conservativebrief.com/biden-14-60440/?utm_source=CB&utm_medium=DJD

@zerohedge: “while we have no particular edge in predicting what happens next in the Russia/Ukraine situation, we’re not sure anyone really does” – Morgan Stanley
 
Ex-DNI @RichardGrenell: History will show that @BarackObama and @JoeBiden allowed Russia to rewrite Europe’s borders twice and gave Russia a massive pipeline of cash & influence…. all while claiming their enemies were either weak on Russia or working for Russia.
 
Russia’s plan to fight back against Western sanctions – BBC
In 2014, when Russian troops moved into Crimea, annexing part of Ukraine, it provoked a first round of international sanctions. And that taught Moscow an important lesson.  Since then it’s been setting up defences, moving away from relying on the dollar, and trying to sanction-proof the Russian economy…
    By January this year, the government’s international reserves, in foreign exchange and gold, were at record levels – worth more than $630bn (£464bn)… Notably only about 16% of Russia’s foreign exchange is now actually held in dollars, down from 40% five years ago. About 13% is now held in Chinese renminbi…China is a big part of that strategy…
    The EU, for example, gets 40% of its natural gas supplies from Russia. The UK gets about 3%…
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-60480904
 
‘GOD HELP US ALL’: Critics concluded ‘we are being led by total buffoons’ after Harris’ ‘word salad’ of a speech on Russia-Ukraine crisis.
     “How seriously does the Biden admin take our national security? On the brink of a potential war in Europe, they used a security conference as a photo op for Kamala, and then leaked to the press that she was totally unqualified to be there,” Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, tweeted, linking to a Washington Post piece that quoted an American official suggesting that Harris’s trip was disorganized and more about “burnishing her political credentials” than finding solutions…  https://fxn.ws/3p6Ypuy
 
Deepening Russia-Ukraine tensions seen curbing food supplies, lifting prices
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/deepening-russia-ukraine-tensions-seen-curbing-food-supplies-lifting-prices-2022-02-22/
 
French President Macron certainly looks foolish and naïve now.
 
@disclosetv: PM Trudeau says Canada will stand against authoritarianism, announces sanctions against Russia. (Not a parody!)  https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/149625707270650266

Boris Johnson scraps remaining COVID restrictions in England https://t.co/6rFyBxAqEF
 
Joe Biden’s Private Economic Adviser Revealed His ‘Enormous Respect’ For Chinese Communists as He Collaborated with a Key CCP Propaganda Group.
Lawrence Summers – a director of former President Barack Obama’s National Economic Council turned advisor to President Joe Biden – has collaborated with the Chinese Communist Party’s premier foreign influence group, flagged for its efforts to “influence foreign governments to take actions or adopt positions supportive of Beijing,” The National Pulse can reveal…
    Summers – a fixture in the Democratic Party who also served as former President Bill Clinton’s Secretary of the Treasury – is the latest high-profile government official to enter the orbit of the Chinese Communist Party’s premier foreign influence group: the China United States Exchange Foundation (CUSEF)… https://thenationalpulse.com/2022/02/22/secret-biden-econ-adviser-collabs-with-chinese-influence-group/
 
@bespokeinvest: The S&P 500 has registered its first 10%+ correction since the COVID Crash in Feb/Mar ’20.
 
(At an event yesterday afternoon) @RNCResearch: REPORTER: “Do you think you may have underestimated Putin?”  BIDEN: *stares blankly, picks at his teeth* (Disturbing video at link)
https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1496234823979048967
 
NY Post Editorial Board: Biden’s lame response won’t be enough to stop Moscow’s defiant madman Putin – Biden’s unconvincing speech might actually embolden Putin…
https://nypost.com/2022/02/22/bidens-lame-response-wont-be-enough-to-stop-defiant-madman-putin/
 
Today – Barring new developments, the usual suspects will try to force stuff higher, hoping that the storm was weathered on Tuesday.  The prudent course is to watch and wait for new information and developments.  Given the Fed is changing course; inflation should increase; and the economy is shaky; there is no urgency or need to buy stuff now – unless you must.  Even if Russia had not invaded Ukraine, there is no compelling reason to buy stocks.  It is ludicrous to rationalize the invasion as a positive for stocks; but that’s what some people are doing.  Tis why ESHs are +24.00 at 20:00 ET.  And if someone is buying stuff because Biden’s response is lame, history shows appeasement will foster big trouble later.
 
As noted above, at the least, the Russian invasion is inflationary.  This nullifies the notion that now the Fed cannot hike rates as much as the market expected.  Americans have little concern about Ukraine; they are extremely concerned about inflation.  PS – The season gasoline rally begins in late February.
See 2^nd chart: https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/gasoline/price-fluctuations.php
 
As of now, we have NOT seen any leading Democrats praise Biden for his speech or actions

Larry Fink (Blackrock) – Markets like totalitarian governments    April 17, 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MFVecfbffUE
 
BlackRock CEO Larry Fink, a story of profit without principle.
BlackRock’s connection to the Chinese Communist Party’s genocide is more direct than most.  It invests in two surveillance technology companies, Hikvision and Iflytek, both of which were placed on the entity list for their part in the Orwellian surveillance system imposed on China’s Uyghur population. Notably, Iflytek is playing a substantial role in the so-called Genocide Olympics as the exclusive provider of translation software.
    For years CEO Larry Fink has been a vocal cheerleader for the CCP and a valued confidant and counselor to its leadership.  On multiple occasions they sought his advice on dealing with the United States, even while the PRC was in negotiations with American officials.  Fink’s loyalty was apparently rewarded in 2021 when BlackRock became the first foreign firm allowed to operate a wholly-owned business in China’s burgeoning mutual fund industry…
https://www.zerohedge.com/sponsored-article/blackrock-ceo-larry-fink-a-story-of-profit-without-principle
 
John Durham sent a message to the attorney general and the country
Attorney General Merrick Garland already had undercut Durham’s investigation once by taking steps to rehabilitate the reputation of fired FBI Deputy Director Andrew McCabe, a key figure in the origins of the Trump-Russia collusion debacle. The Biden DOJ is not friendly to the goals of Mr. Durham.
    Durham couldn’t hold a news conference or pen an op-ed touting progress; that’s just not done by investigators in the middle of an investigation. So, he turned to a readily available vehicle — a routine, fairly innocuous motion filed with the court — to embed an explosive message to the DOJ and the American people. It landed like fireworks at a funeral. No one saw it coming.
     John Durham laid out a good chunk of the case he’s building, and it was stunning. Durham revealed the outlines of a corrupt conspiracy by operatives linked to Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign. The exposed conspiracy allegedly made a contrived, fraudulent and shocking attempt to entice the FBI and CIA to use their powers against the rival Trump campaign and presidency…
   Durham has signaled to the American people that his investigation has legs, despite perceptions of plodding inertia. He has provided hope that accountability in D.C… Thanks to a routine court filing, the nation now knows the Durham investigation is no joke…
https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/595235-john-durham-sent-a-message-to-the-attorney-general-and-the
 
@YALiberty: Justin Trudeau’s deputy tells Canadians the only way to get their bank accounts “unfrozen” is to stop protesting the government.  https://twitter.com/YALiberty/status/1495849492071002121
 
@ezralevant: Ottawa Police have told us that individual police checkpoints have the power to stop any reporters they do not like — it’s up to officer discretion. This was their explanation for why government journalists at Trudeau’s CBC state broadcaster were allowed through, but we aren’t.
 
U.S. to Invade Canada to Establish a Democracy – U.S. generals agreed on a plan earlier this week to invade the foreign dictatorship known as “Canada” and establish a democracy there…
https://babylonbee.com/news/us-to-invade-canada-to-establish-a-democracy
 
Kyle Rittenhouse launches initiative to combat ‘lies’ from media outlets, personalities
He plans to sue news organizations and personalities for spreading “lies” against him…
https://t.co/6hjNDsKSF2
 
Hillary Clinton’s ‘fake scandal’ attack on Durham probe recalls strategy from Whitewater era
As investigators built case that first lady gave inaccurate testimony two decades ago, she unleashed attacks to undercut prosecutors
https://justthenews.com/accountability/russia-and-ukraine-scandals/hillary-clintons-fake-scandal-attack-durham-probe
 
The green agenda is too expensive: We need a better way to fight climate change
Fossil fuels still deliver the vast majority of energy. The European Union puts climate at the top of its political agenda, yet more than 80% of its primary energy needs are met by fossil fuels, according to the International Energy Agency. Despite endless environmental talk, solar and wind contribute only about 3% of Europe’s total energy. Making a transition from fossil fuels to green energy is costlY

… https://nypost.com/2022/02/20/we-need-a-better-way-to-fight-climate-change/

END

Let us close out the week with this offering courtesy of Greg Hunter interviewing Craig Roberts

Harvey No Shooting War in Ukraine – Dr. Paul Craig Roberts 

Inbox

Greg Hunter via aweber.com	11:26 PM (17 minutes ago)
to Harvey

No Shooting War in Ukraine – Dr. Paul Craig Roberts | Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdo

No Shooting War in Ukraine – Dr. Paul Craig Roberts

By Greg Hunter On February 22, 2022 In Political Analysis2 Comments

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com

Dr. Paul Craig Roberts (PCR), former Assistant Treasury Secretary and international award-winning journalist, says the problems in Ukraine have been boiling for 8 years.  Millions of Russian people were supposed to be protected in Eastern Ukraine under the so-called Minsk Agreement.  It was supposed to stop the fighting, but the fighting never stopped.  Now, Russia has recognized the breakaway regions and has a deal to protect the Russian people there.  PCR explains, “Putin said we have to give them some kind of semi-autonomy.  Let them have their own police in that area so they won’t be persecuted by the Ukrainian majority.  Putin worked out this agreement, and Ukraine signed it.  Germany and France guaranteed it, and the breakaway republics signed it, but we (U.S.) prevented Ukraine from complying with it. . . . The minute Russian troops moved in, the shelling stopped.  It completely stopped, and it won’t start back.”

The non-stop propaganda by the mainstream media (MSM) makes people think we are at the brink of war with Russia.  The Obama/Biden Administration is clearly pushing for war in the region, but PCR says “no way” and goes on to explain, “How are we going to fight them?  NATO in a battle with Russia would not last five minutes.  I am just talking about conventional war.  NATO cannot mobilize sufficient military force to confront Russia.  They just don’t have it.  The force isn’t there, and Russia does not want Ukraine. . . . Ukraine is bankrupt.  It’s full of neo-Nazis, it’s trouble. . . . There is a propaganda war going on  . . . but there is not going to be a shooting war over Ukraine.  Something really stupid would have to happen to cause that.”

What is stupid are the sanctions that are piling up on Russia that will only hurt the already financially troubled West.  For example, according to PCR, “The German Chancellor says I am going to punish the Germans by turning off the pipeline because Russia recognized Donbass.  It makes no sense.  Why is he punishing Germans?  Their energy prices go up.  The banks who financed it fail.  What if Putin says you don’t need that pipeline, we will turn off this other pipeline too.  What happens in Europe?  They are dependent on this energy.  People will freeze to death in the winter.  The factories will close down.  The German Chancellor is an idiot.  He’s punishing Germans, not Russians.”

PCR says inflation is high but not because of massive money printing by the Fed.  Inflation is rising because of the extreme CV19 policies.  PCR explains, “What’s the cause of the inflation?  The lockdowns are the cause of the inflation and the stupid Covid policies.  The lockdowns are the source of inflation.  Why?  They busted up all the supply chains.  They stopped production.  Production ceased.  Factories closed.  Restaurants closed.  Everything closed.  People lost their jobs.  The Governor of California banned half of the American trucking fleet from entering California. . . . People lost their jobs but got a government check instead.  The money did not decline, but supply did.  So, prices went up, and that’s why we have inflation.”

PCR says look for the Fed to make yet another policy mistake that will wreck the economy.  PCR says, “Most people don’t understand the Fed is not there to help the economy.  It’s there to help the New York banks. . . . The Fed has never served the economy or the people.  It’s always made policy mistakes, and it was a Fed policy mistake that caused the Great Depression.”

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes One-on-One with award-winning journalist Dr. Paul Craig Roberts 2.22.22 (There is much more in the 50 min. interview.)

(To Donate to USAWatchdog.com Click Here)

After the Interview:

To see top notch analysis and journalism on a regular basis, go to PaulCraigRoberts.org.  All the articles are free, and PCR is a prolific writer.

No Shooting War in Ukraine – Dr. Paul Craig Roberts

end

Well that is all for today. I will see you THURSDAY night